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                            Library & Multimedia
 Statistical Approach to Crime Linkage
NCJ Number
              248976

Author(s)
          Michael D. Porter
Date Published

October 2014
Length
              33 pages
Annotation
              This is a report on the development of a statistical approach that identifies and groups crimes committed by the same offender, and it prioritizes suspects for further investigation.
Abstract
              Bayes factors were used to determine the strength of evidence that two crimes have been committed by the same person.  Using concepts from agglomerative hierarchical clustering, the Bayes factors for crime pairs were combined to provide similarity measures in comparing two crime series.  This facilitates crime-series clustering and identification, as well as suspect prioritization.  The models' ability to make correct linkages and predictions was demonstrated under real-world scenarios that involve a large number of solved and unsolved breaking-and-entering crimes.  A naïve Bayes model for pairwise case linkage identified 82 percent of known linkages, with a 5-percent false positive rate.  For crime-series identification, 77-89 percent of the additional crimes in a series were identified from a ranked list of 50 incidents.  6 tables, 6 figures, and 71 references
      
  
          Additional Details
Grant Number(s)
        2010-DE-BX-K255


  
  
        
  Agencies
        NIJ-Sponsored


  
  
        
  Publication Type
        Research (Applied/Empirical)
                                Report (Study/Research)
                                Report (Grant Sponsored)


  
  
        
  Award
        Statistical Methods for Spatio-Temporal Crime Series Linkage Analysis
    
  
  
Date Published: October 1, 2014
    
          Downloads
        
                      Report (PDF)
                  Crimelinkage Instructions (HTML)
                  Crimelinkage Package (HTML)

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                Burglary
        Crime patterns
        Criminology
        Habitual offenders
        Mathematical Modeling



  
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