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                            Library & Multimedia
 QUANTITATIVE METHODS FOR ESTIMATING THE SIZE OF A DRUG- USING POPULATION
NCJ Number
              142325
Journal

*Journal of Drug Issues* Volume: 23 Issue: 2 Dated: (Spring 1993) Pages: 185- 216
Author(s)
          T D Wickens
Date Published

1993
Length
              32 pages
Annotation
              This article describes several of the most important quantitative procedures for estimating the size of an unobserved or partially observed population, with specific application to the estimation of the prevalence of drug use.
Abstract
              The methods described are synthetic estimation, truncated Poisson estimates, multiple-capture surveys in both closed populations (the capture-recapture model and log-linear models) and open populations (the Jolly-Seber model and Markov models), and, more briefly, system dynamics models. The author advises that there is no single best estimation procedures, since the suitability of a method depends on the data that are available and on the nature of the population whose size is to be estimated. He also notes that every technique is based on a model that is an idealization of the process to be described. All involve assumptions that are more stringent than can be shown to hold without qualification. Thus, each involves some error of model specification. A third caution given is that the data on which the estimates are based must be thoroughly understood. Any set of real data contains numerous aspects that are not automatically part of an estimation model. The researcher must look both at the way the data fit the models and at the process by which they were obtained. Finally, the author advises that the application of several of the estimation methods to a given problem yields a better understanding of the phenomenon being studied and a more accurate size estimate than does one method used alone. 6 notes, 9 tables, 6 figures, and 21 references
      
  
          Additional Details
Grant Number(s)
        87-IJ-CX-0042
                                90-IJ-CX-0


  
  
        
  Agencies
        NIJ-Sponsored


  
  
        
  Publication Type
        Report (Technical)
    
  
  
Date Published: January 1, 1993
    
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