U.S. flag
      An official website of the United States government, Department of Justice.
        Here's how you know
      Here's how you know**Official websites use .gov**
            
            A **.gov** website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
      **Secure .gov websites use HTTPS**
            
            A **lock** (
            A locked padlock
            ) or **https://** means you’ve safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. Menu

      
        close

            
            
                                              About NIJ
        
                    
  
          About NIJ
      
    
          The NIJ Director
          How NIJ Is Organized
          Mission and Guiding Principles
          Research and Development Process
          Strategic Framework
          Assessments of NIJ
          Annual Reports & Reports to Congress
          Staff Directory
          Funding & Awards
        
                    
  
          Funding & Awards
      
    
          Current Funding
          Forthcoming Funding
          Expired Funding
          Awards: Listing of Funded Projects
          Guidance for Applicants and Awardees
          Fellowship & Student Programs
          Travel Scholarships
          NIJ Challenge Program
          Library & Multimedia
        
                    
  
          Library & Multimedia
      
    
          NIJ Journal
          Podcasts
          Publications Listing
          Multimedia Listing
          Rated Practices on CrimeSolutions
          Rated Programs on CrimeSolutions
          Software & Databases
          Datasets
          Patents
          Topics
        
                    
  
          Topics
      
    
          Article Listing
          Corrections
          Courts
          Crime Prevention
          Crimes
          Drugs and Crime
          Equipment and Technology
          Forensic Sciences
          Youth Justice
          Justice System Reform
          Law Enforcement
          Tribal Crime and Justice
          Victims of Crime
          Events
        
                    
  
          Events
      
    
          NIJ 2024 Research Conference
          Scheduled Events
          On-Demand Events
          Research Meetings & Workshops
          NIJ-Hosted Online Training

                            
                                About
          Contact Us
          Subscribe
          Topics A-Z
                  Share
FacebookXLinkedInRedditPinterestEmail Home
                            Library & Multimedia
 The Pitfalls of Prediction
NCJ Number
              240702
Journal

*NIJ Journal* Issue: 271 Dated: February 2013 Pages: 34-40
Author(s)
          Greg  Ridgeway
Date Published

February 2013
Length
              7 pages
Annotation
              This article discusses the advantages of using the latest scientific developments to make reliable predictions about crime.
Abstract
              Research has shown that criminal justice researchers, practitioners, analysts, and other stakeholders often make common mistakes in when making predictions about crime and criminals. These common mistakes are 1) trusting expert predictions too much; 2) clinging to what was learned in Statistics 101; 3) assuming one method works best for all problems; 4) trying to interpret too much; 5) forsaking model simplicity for predictive strength - or vice versa; 6) expecting perfect predictions; and 7) failing to consider the unintended consequences of predictions. This article discusses each of these mistakes and how the use of recent scientific developments could be used to avoid them. Some of the ways to avoid these mistake include constructing and using predictive models, be willing to use different prediction methods based on the particular prediction problem, focus on the accuracy of the predictions, and use models that are simple to understand and simple to implement. Figures, table, and notes
      
  
          Additional Details
Agencies
        NIJ


  
  
        
  Publication Type
        Issue Overview
    
  
  
Date Published: February 1, 2013
    
          Downloads
        
                      PDF
                  HTML

Side navigation
  

        

  
  
              NIJ Journal
    
      
            
            
            
      Podcasts
    
      
            
            
            
      Publications Listing
    
      
            
            
            
      Multimedia Listing
    
      
            
            
            
      Rated Practices on CrimeSolutions
    
      
            
            
            
      Rated Programs on CrimeSolutions
    
      
            
            
            
      Software & Databases
    
      
            
            
            
      Datasets
    
      
            
            
            
      PatentsRelated Topics
        
                Crime control model
        Crime prediction
        Criminality prediction
        Law enforcement
        Research



  
Similar Publications
        
                      IBCFAP: Intra-Body Communications Five-Layers Arm Phantom Model
                  Measurement Invariance Across Sexes in Intimate Partner Abuse Research
                  Surface Enhanced Raman Spectroscopy: A Review of Recent Applications in Forensic Science
 Top

      National Institute of Justice

        
        
                        About NIJ
                    About NIJ
      
    
                  How NIJ Is Organized
      
    
                  NIJ Director
      
    
                  Research Disclaimer
      
    
                  Funding & Awards
                    Funding & Awards Home
      
    
                  Awards Listing
      
    
                  Current Funding
      
    
                  Guidance for Applicants and Awardees
      
    
                  Resources
                    Events
      
    
                  Podcasts
      
    
                  Publications
      
    
                  Topics
      
    
                  Multimedia
      
    
                  Reuse Policy
      
    
                  Contacts
                    Contact NIJ
      
    
                  Staff Directory
      
    
                  Submit a FOIA Request
      
    
                  File a Civil Rights ComplaintFacebook
          
                      X
          
                      YouTube
  

      810 7th St. NW, Washington, D.C. 20531
      
              Secondary Footer link menu
            Accessibility
              Plain Language
              Privacy Policy
              Legal Policies and Disclaimer
              No FEAR Act
              Freedom of Information Act
              USA.gov
              Justice.gov