U.S. flag
      An official website of the United States government, Department of Justice.
        Here's how you know
      Here's how you know**Official websites use .gov**
            
            A **.gov** website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
      **Secure .gov websites use HTTPS**
            
            A **lock** (
            A locked padlock
            ) or **https://** means you’ve safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. Menu

      
        close

            
            
                                              About NIJ
        
                    
  
          About NIJ
      
    
          The NIJ Director
          How NIJ Is Organized
          Mission and Guiding Principles
          Research and Development Process
          Strategic Framework
          Assessments of NIJ
          Annual Reports & Reports to Congress
          Staff Directory
          Funding & Awards
        
                    
  
          Funding & Awards
      
    
          Current Funding
          Forthcoming Funding
          Expired Funding
          Awards: Listing of Funded Projects
          Guidance for Applicants and Awardees
          Fellowship & Student Programs
          Travel Scholarships
          NIJ Challenge Program
          Library & Multimedia
        
                    
  
          Library & Multimedia
      
    
          NIJ Journal
          Podcasts
          Publications Listing
          Multimedia Listing
          Rated Practices on CrimeSolutions
          Rated Programs on CrimeSolutions
          Software & Databases
          Datasets
          Patents
          Topics
        
                    
  
          Topics
      
    
          Article Listing
          Corrections
          Courts
          Crime Prevention
          Crimes
          Drugs and Crime
          Equipment and Technology
          Forensic Sciences
          Youth Justice
          Justice System Reform
          Law Enforcement
          Tribal Crime and Justice
          Victims of Crime
          Events
        
                    
  
          Events
      
    
          NIJ 2024 Research Conference
          Scheduled Events
          On-Demand Events
          Research Meetings & Workshops
          NIJ-Hosted Online Training

                            
                                About
          Contact Us
          Subscribe
          Topics A-Z
                  Share
FacebookXLinkedInRedditPinterestEmail Home
                            Library & Multimedia
 National Institute of Justice's Recidivism Forecasting Challenge: Research Paper, Group MNLB
NCJ Number
              305046

Author(s)
          Yujunrong Ma;
                        Kiminori Nakamura;
                        Eung-Joo Lee;
                        Shuvra S. Bhattacharyya
Date Published

August 2021
Length
              15 pages
Annotation
              This is the research paper presented by the team of listed authors for the National Institute of Justice’s (NIJ’s) Recidivism Forecasting Challenge
Abstract
              The dataset provided for the challenge consists of individuals who were released from state prison to parole supervision in Georgia between 2013 and 2015. The data include a wide array of prerelease individual-level characteristics ranging from demographics and detailed criminal history and supervision history and current case information to post-release characteristics, such as parole conditions and violations. The target prediction outcomes are a new in-state arrest for a felony or misdemeanor offense within 1, 2, and 3 years from release. In this challenge, the team did simple exploration of the original dataset and then made targeted processing of data. It also expanded the dataset by concatenating external census data. The team then chose a certain set of well-performed machine learning models and used grid searching to determine their best hyper-parameter. With all experiment results, the team further summed the weighted output of logistic regression, GBDT and Xgboost as the final output. Some limitations to the work are noted due to lack of time and insufficient efficiency.
      
  
          Additional Details
Grant Number(s)
        NIJ Recidivism Forecasting Challenge Winning Paper


  
  
        
  Agencies
        NIJ-Sponsored


  
  
        
  Publication Type
        Research (Applied/Empirical)
    
  
  
Date Published: August 1, 2021
    
          Downloads
        
                      PDF

Side navigation
  

        

  
  
              NIJ Journal
    
      
            
            
            
      Podcasts
    
      
            
            
            
      Publications Listing
    
      
            
            
            
      Multimedia Listing
    
      
            
            
            
      Rated Practices on CrimeSolutions
    
      
            
            
            
      Rated Programs on CrimeSolutions
    
      
            
            
            
      Software & Databases
    
      
            
            
            
      Datasets
    
      
            
            
            
      PatentsRelated Topics
        
                Recidivism
        Recidivism prediction
        Recidivism statistics
        Social and Behavioral Science
        Research and development



  
Similar Publications
        
                      The Over-citation of Daubert in Forensic Anthropology
                  Atlanta Youth Count 2018 Community Report: The Prevalence of Sex and Labor Trafficking Among Homeless Youth in Metro Atlanta
                  NamUs Fiscal Year 2022 Annual Report
 Top

      National Institute of Justice

        
        
                        About NIJ
                    About NIJ
      
    
                  How NIJ Is Organized
      
    
                  NIJ Director
      
    
                  Research Disclaimer
      
    
                  Funding & Awards
                    Funding & Awards Home
      
    
                  Awards Listing
      
    
                  Current Funding
      
    
                  Guidance for Applicants and Awardees
      
    
                  Resources
                    Events
      
    
                  Podcasts
      
    
                  Publications
      
    
                  Topics
      
    
                  Multimedia
      
    
                  Reuse Policy
      
    
                  Contacts
                    Contact NIJ
      
    
                  Staff Directory
      
    
                  Submit a FOIA Request
      
    
                  File a Civil Rights ComplaintFacebook
          
                      X
          
                      YouTube
  

      810 7th St. NW, Washington, D.C. 20531
      
              Secondary Footer link menu
            Accessibility
              Plain Language
              Privacy Policy
              Legal Policies and Disclaimer
              No FEAR Act
              Freedom of Information Act
              USA.gov
              Justice.gov