U.S. flag
      An official website of the United States government, Department of Justice.
        Here's how you know
      Here's how you know**Official websites use .gov**
            
            A **.gov** website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
      **Secure .gov websites use HTTPS**
            
            A **lock** (
            A locked padlock
            ) or **https://** means you’ve safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. Menu

      
        close

            
            
                                              About NIJ
        
                    
  
          About NIJ
      
    
          The NIJ Director
          How NIJ Is Organized
          Mission and Guiding Principles
          Research and Development Process
          Strategic Framework
          Assessments of NIJ
          Annual Reports & Reports to Congress
          Staff Directory
          Funding & Awards
        
                    
  
          Funding & Awards
      
    
          Current Funding
          Forthcoming Funding
          Expired Funding
          Awards: Listing of Funded Projects
          Guidance for Applicants and Awardees
          Fellowship & Student Programs
          Travel Scholarships
          NIJ Challenge Program
          Library & Multimedia
        
                    
  
          Library & Multimedia
      
    
          NIJ Journal
          Podcasts
          Publications Listing
          Multimedia Listing
          Rated Practices on CrimeSolutions
          Rated Programs on CrimeSolutions
          Software & Databases
          Datasets
          Patents
          Topics
        
                    
  
          Topics
      
    
          Article Listing
          Corrections
          Courts
          Crime Prevention
          Crimes
          Drugs and Crime
          Equipment and Technology
          Forensic Sciences
          Youth Justice
          Justice System Reform
          Law Enforcement
          Tribal Crime and Justice
          Victims of Crime
          Events
        
                    
  
          Events
      
    
          NIJ 2024 Research Conference
          Scheduled Events
          On-Demand Events
          Research Meetings & Workshops
          NIJ-Hosted Online Training

                            
                                About
          Contact Us
          Subscribe
          Topics A-Z
                  Share
FacebookXLinkedInRedditPinterestEmail Home
                            Library & Multimedia
 Predicting Recidivism: Continuing To Improve the Bureau of Prisons’ Risk Assessment Tool, PATTERN
NCJ Number
              304599

Date Published

April 2022
Annotation
              This report reviews the features and fulfillment of the federal mandate that the Federal Bureau of Prisons develop and implement a risk-and-needs assessment system for people in federal custody.
Abstract
              This mandate is in Title I of the federal First Step Act (FSA) of 2018, whose primary goal is prison reform that installs programs to reduce recidivism. In fulfilling the risk assessment mandate, consultants for the U.S. Department of Justice’s (DOJ’s) National Institute of Justice (NIJ) created a risk-assessment tool, the Prisoner Assessment Tool Targeting Estimated Risk and Needs (PATTERN). This tool assesses individuals’ risk of engaging in crime once they are released from federal custody. After its initial development in July 2019, PATTERN was subjected to public review and comment. Several subsequent revisions were then implemented to produce PATTERN 1.2 in January 2020. Since FSA’s Title 1 mandates regular review and assessment of PATTERN, in December 2021, NIJ released the annual review and revalidation report on PATTERN 1.2 and described the development of a revised version (PATTERN 1.3), which has 15 variables spread across four tools: 1) general recidivism for males, 2) violent recidivism for males, 3) general recidivism for females, and 4) violent recidivism for females. Although findings from the testing of PATTERN 1.3 are encouraging, NIJ’s expert consultants continue to pursue state-of-the-art approaches that will address remaining issues of bias, so as to reduce or eliminate differential predictions of risk based on race/ethnicity.
      
  
          Additional Details
Agencies
        NIJ
    
  
  
Date Published: April 1, 2022
    
          Downloads
        
                      HTML

Side navigation
  

        

  
  
              NIJ Journal
    
      
            
            
            
      Podcasts
    
      
            
            
            
      Publications Listing
    
      
            
            
            
      Multimedia Listing
    
      
            
            
            
      Rated Practices on CrimeSolutions
    
      
            
            
            
      Rated Programs on CrimeSolutions
    
      
            
            
            
      Software & Databases
    
      
            
            
            
      Datasets
    
      
            
            
            
      PatentsRelated Topics
        
                Corrections
        Recidivism
        Research and development
        Social and Behavioral Science
        Federal Bureau of Prisons



  
Similar Publications
        
                      Experimental Results on Data Analysis Algorithms for Extracting and Interpreting Edge Feature Data for Duct Tape and Textile Physical Fit Examinations
                  Technical Note – Analysis Of Marijuana And Marijuana Products
                  Identifying COVID-19 Policies and Practice that Juvenile Justice Systems Should Maintain Long-Term: Listening Session 3: State Juvenile Justice Agency Administrators
 Top

      National Institute of Justice

        
        
                        About NIJ
                    About NIJ
      
    
                  How NIJ Is Organized
      
    
                  NIJ Director
      
    
                  Research Disclaimer
      
    
                  Funding & Awards
                    Funding & Awards Home
      
    
                  Awards Listing
      
    
                  Current Funding
      
    
                  Guidance for Applicants and Awardees
      
    
                  Resources
                    Events
      
    
                  Podcasts
      
    
                  Publications
      
    
                  Topics
      
    
                  Multimedia
      
    
                  Reuse Policy
      
    
                  Contacts
                    Contact NIJ
      
    
                  Staff Directory
      
    
                  Submit a FOIA Request
      
    
                  File a Civil Rights ComplaintFacebook
          
                      X
          
                      YouTube
  

      810 7th St. NW, Washington, D.C. 20531
      
              Secondary Footer link menu
            Accessibility
              Plain Language
              Privacy Policy
              Legal Policies and Disclaimer
              No FEAR Act
              Freedom of Information Act
              USA.gov
              Justice.gov