U.S. flag
      An official website of the United States government, Department of Justice.
        Here's how you know
      Here's how you know**Official websites use .gov**
            
            A **.gov** website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
      **Secure .gov websites use HTTPS**
            
            A **lock** (
            A locked padlock
            ) or **https://** means you’ve safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. Menu

      
        close

            
            
                                              About NIJ
        
                    
  
          About NIJ
      
    
          The NIJ Director
          How NIJ Is Organized
          Mission and Guiding Principles
          Research and Development Process
          Strategic Framework
          Assessments of NIJ
          Annual Reports & Reports to Congress
          Staff Directory
          Funding & Awards
        
                    
  
          Funding & Awards
      
    
          Current Funding
          Forthcoming Funding
          Expired Funding
          Awards: Listing of Funded Projects
          Guidance for Applicants and Awardees
          Fellowship & Student Programs
          Travel Scholarships
          NIJ Challenge Program
          Library & Multimedia
        
                    
  
          Library & Multimedia
      
    
          NIJ Journal
          Podcasts
          Publications Listing
          Multimedia Listing
          Rated Practices on CrimeSolutions
          Rated Programs on CrimeSolutions
          Software & Databases
          Datasets
          Patents
          Topics
        
                    
  
          Topics
      
    
          Article Listing
          Corrections
          Courts
          Crime Prevention
          Crimes
          Drugs and Crime
          Equipment and Technology
          Forensic Sciences
          Youth Justice
          Justice System Reform
          Law Enforcement
          Tribal Crime and Justice
          Victims of Crime
          Events
        
                    
  
          Events
      
    
          NIJ 2024 Research Conference
          Scheduled Events
          On-Demand Events
          Research Meetings & Workshops
          NIJ-Hosted Online Training

                            
                                About
          Contact Us
          Subscribe
          Topics A-Z
                  Share
FacebookXLinkedInRedditPinterestEmail Home
                            Library & Multimedia
 National Institute of Justice Recidivism Forecasting Challenge: Team “MCHawks” Performance Analysis
NCJ Number
              305050

Author(s)
          Giovanni Circo;
                        Andrew Wheeler
Date Published

2021
Length
              9 pages
Annotation
              This is the Team “MCHawks” performance analysis submitted to the U.S. Justice Department’s National Institute of Justice’s (NIJ’s) Recidivism Forecasting Challenge.
Abstract
              The goal of the Forecasting Challenge was  to have each participating team develop a model to predict future recidivism among a sample of persons released from prison to parole in Georgia, with relevant data provided by NIJ. The primary outcome for the Challenge was prediction of re-arrest for any crime at 1, 2, and 3 years after release. A secondary outcome was the development of a “fair and accurate” model that  balanced false-positive predictions between Black and White parolees. The MCHawks team’s prediction model placed in the following categories: 1) First Place: Year 2, Male Parolees; 2) First Place: Year 2, Average Accuracy; and 3) Second Place: Year 2, Female Parolees. The team also placed second, third, and fifth among the “Accounting for Racial Bias Category” in the Year 1 and Year 2 categories. This report provides details on the development of the team’s models, discusses the features used in building the predictions, and the interpretation of the results. In discussing future considerations, the report addresses how predictive models can best be applied and how subsequent similar competitions can better guide the development of fair and accurate algorithms.
      
  
          Additional Details
Grant Number(s)
        NIJ Recidivism Forecasting Challenge Winning Paper


  
  
        
  Agencies
        NIJ-Sponsored


  
  
        
  Publication Type
        Research (Applied/Empirical)
    
  
  
Date Published: January 1, 2021
    
          Downloads
        
                      PDF

Side navigation
  

        

  
  
              NIJ Journal
    
      
            
            
            
      Podcasts
    
      
            
            
            
      Publications Listing
    
      
            
            
            
      Multimedia Listing
    
      
            
            
            
      Rated Practices on CrimeSolutions
    
      
            
            
            
      Rated Programs on CrimeSolutions
    
      
            
            
            
      Software & Databases
    
      
            
            
            
      Datasets
    
      
            
            
            
      PatentsRelated Topics
        
                Recidivism
        Recidivism prediction
        Recidivism statistics
        Research and development
        Social and Behavioral Science



  
Similar Publications
        
                      Commentary On: Thompson WC. Uncertainty in Probabilistic Genotyping of Low Template DNA: A Case Study Comparing STRmixTM and TrueAlleleTM
                  States’ School Safety Centers: A Brief Look Into History, Characteristics, and Activities
                  Unidirectional structured light system calibration with auxiliary camera and projector
 Top

      National Institute of Justice

        
        
                        About NIJ
                    About NIJ
      
    
                  How NIJ Is Organized
      
    
                  NIJ Director
      
    
                  Research Disclaimer
      
    
                  Funding & Awards
                    Funding & Awards Home
      
    
                  Awards Listing
      
    
                  Current Funding
      
    
                  Guidance for Applicants and Awardees
      
    
                  Resources
                    Events
      
    
                  Podcasts
      
    
                  Publications
      
    
                  Topics
      
    
                  Multimedia
      
    
                  Reuse Policy
      
    
                  Contacts
                    Contact NIJ
      
    
                  Staff Directory
      
    
                  Submit a FOIA Request
      
    
                  File a Civil Rights ComplaintFacebook
          
                      X
          
                      YouTube
  

      810 7th St. NW, Washington, D.C. 20531
      
              Secondary Footer link menu
            Accessibility
              Plain Language
              Privacy Policy
              Legal Policies and Disclaimer
              No FEAR Act
              Freedom of Information Act
              USA.gov
              Justice.gov