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Title:   Author  item
                                            ANYAMBA, ASSAF - Goddard Space Flight Centeritem
                                            Linthicum, Kenneth

                                                         - *Ken*item
                                            SMALL, JENNIFER - Goddard Space Flight Centeritem
                                            PAK, EDWIN - Goddard Space Flight Centeritem
                                            TUCKER, COMPTON - Goddard Space Flight Centeritem
                                            CHRETIEN, JEAN-PAUL - Walter Reed Army Instituteitem
                                            Gibson, Sethitem
                                            BREIMAN, ROBERT - Centers For Disease Control - Kenyaitem
                                            HIGHTOWER, ALLAN - Centers For Disease Control And Prevention (CDC) - United Statesitem
                                            DE LA ROCQUE, STEPHANE - Food & Agriculture Organization (FAO)item
                                            FORMENTY, PIERRE - World Health Organization (WHO) - Switzerlanditem
                                            HAAGSMA, KARL - Youngstown Air Research Stationitem
                                            LATHAM, MARK - Manatee County Floridaitem
                                            LEWANDOWSKI, HENRY - Chatham County Georgiaitem
                                            SANG, ROSEMARY - Kenya Medical Research Instituteitem
                                            SCHNABEL, DAVID - United States Army Medical Research Unititem
                                            RICHARDSON, JASON - Armed Forces Research Institute Of Medical Sciences
  Submitted to: Meeting Abstract
                                    Publication Type: Abstract Only
                                    Publication Acceptance Date: 10/22/2009
                                    Publication  Date: 11/18/2009
                                    Citation: Anyamba, A., Linthicum, K., Small, J., Pak, E., Tucker, C.J., Chretien, J., Britch, S.C., Breiman, R., Hightower, A., De La Rocque, S., Formenty, P., Haagsma, K., Latham, M., Lewandowski, H.B., Sang, R., Schnabel, D., Richardson, J. 2009. Prediction, Assessment of the Rift Valley Fever Activity in East and Southern Africa 2006 - 2008 and Possible Vector Control Strategies [abstract]. The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. 81(5):186.Interpretive Summary:
                                Technical Abstract: Historical episodic outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) since the early 1950s have been associated with cyclical patterns (El Niño and La Niña) of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon which results in elevated and widespread rainfall over the RVF endemic areas of Africa.  Using satellite measurements of global and regional elevated sea surface temperatures, and subsequent elevated rainfall and satellite derived-normalized difference vegetation index data, we predicted with lead times of 2- 4 months specific areas where outbreaks of RVF in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa, Sudan and Southern Africa at different time periods from September 2006 to March 2008. Predictions were confirmed by entomological field investigations of virus activity in the areas we identified and by reported cases of RVF in human and livestock populations. This represents the first series of prospective predictions of RVF outbreaks and provides a baseline for improved early warning, control, response planning and mitigation into the future.


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