U.S. flagAn official website of the United States government
                    Here's how you know **Official websites use .gov**
                            
                            A **.gov** website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
 **Secure .gov websites use HTTPS**
                            
                            A **lock** (                            
                              A locked padlock                                                      
                            
                            ) or **https://** means you’ve safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.


Menu Agricultural Research Service
						
                    U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
 Mosquito and Fly Research: Gainesville, FL
 close



    Research

                    Research Projects
                                    Publications
                                    Collaborations
                                    News
                People

                    Staff Listing
                                    CareersSearch small
                    Search
            
            ARS Home
                                About ARS
                                Contact Us




ARS Home Southeast Area Gainesville, Florida Center for Medical, Agricultural and Veterinary Entomology Mosquito and Fly Research Research Publications at this Location





- ARS National Programs
- Search for a scientific manuscript
- Search for a research project
- ARS Software
- Programs and Projects
- Collaborations
- Subjects of Investigation
- Publications

Title:   Author  item
                                            ANYAMBA, ASSAF - GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT; MDitem
                                            CHRETIEN, JEAN-PAUL - DOD-GEISRS; MDitem
                                            SMALL, JENNIFER - GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT; MDitem
                                            TUCKER, COMPTON - GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT; MDitem
                                            FORMENTY, PIERRE - WHO; GENEVA, SWITZERLANDitem
                                            RICHARDSON, JASON - USARMY MED.RES.UNIT/KENYAitem
                                            Gibson, Sethitem
                                            Linthicum, Kenneth

                                                         - *Ken*
  Submitted to: Meeting Abstract
                                    Publication Type: Abstract Only
                                    Publication Acceptance Date: 7/27/2007
                                    Publication  Date: 11/4/2007
                                    Citation: Anyamba, A., Chretien, J., Small, J., Tucker, C., Formenty, P., Richardson, J., Britch, S.C., Linthicum, K. 2007. Forecasting the Temporal and Spatial Distribution of a Rift Valley fever Outbreak in East Africa: 2006-2007. American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 2007 Conference in Philadelphia, PA on November 4-8, 2007, pgs. 282-283.Interpretive Summary: N/A
                                Technical Abstract: El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related climate anomalies have been shown to have a direct impact on Rift Valley fever (RVF) disease outbreaks. Knowledge of the links between ENSO driven climate anomalies and RVF can allow us to provide improved long range forecasts of an epidemic or epizootic. We used satellite generated data to detect that sea surface temperatures  (SSTs) in the equatorial east Pacific ocean anomalously increased significantly during July – October 2006 indicating the typical development of  El Niño conditions. The persistence of these conditions and the concurrent elevation of the SSTs in the Indian Ocean was similar to extremes in global-scale climate anomalies that have been observed during similar conditions in the past that produced excess rainfall in East Africa. Subsequent normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) anomalies for Africa showed positive NDVI patterns with the largest departures concentrated over East Africa especially eastern Kenya, Somalia southern Ethiopia and northern Tanzania following above normal rainfall from September through December. A RVF risk map derived from thresholding NDVI anomaly data indicated for the period October to December 2006 that there was elevated risk of RVF activity in northern Kenya, central Somalia, and subsequently Tanzania. An outbreak of RVF occurred in northeastern Kenya in early December and has continued in east Africa through April 2007. We describe the spatial and temporal accuracy of our RVF risk map forecasts. Forecasting disease is critical for timely and efficient planning of operational control programs. In this paper we describe how we can refine our RVF risk model to give decision makers additional tools to make rational judgments concerning implementation of disease prevention and mitigation strategies.


Return to top


Connect with ARS Sign up


ARS Home
                            USDA.gov
                            Plain Writing
                            Policies & Links
                            Civil Rights Statements
                            FOIA
                            Accessibility Statement
                            Privacy Policy
                            Non-Discrimination Statement
                            Quality of Information
                            USA.gov
                            WhiteHouse.gov