Michael Stephens

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

MAAC Presentation

November 19, 2019

Disability Application Experience of 

the OASDI and SSI Programs
Plan

1. Background

1. SSA programs and composition

2. Types of disability benefits

3. Application and decision process

4. Total SSA application

2. Disability experience – Applications by:

1. Field office apps by program and geography

2. DDS receipt by program, impairment

3. DI receipt rates

4. SSI receipt rates

OCACT/SSA 2
Programs Administered by SSA

 SSA administers two major benefits programs

 Social Security (comprised of the separate OASI and DI programs)

 Supplemental Security Income (SSI)

 Disability benefits payable under both

 Social Security Disability

 DI is primarily disability benefits, along with benefits to dependents

 OASI pays disability benefits to several relatively small groups (widows, adult 

children)

 SSI: Primarily comprised of disabled recipients

OCACT/SSA 3
Social Security Beneficiary Composition

OCACT/SSA 4

Retired workers, 

70%

Disabled 

beneficiaries, 

15%

Non-disabled 

dependents and 

survivors, 15%

Social Security Beneficiaries in Current-Payment Status

64 million total beneficiaries in October 2019

45 million

10 million

9 million

Figure 1: Distribution of OASDI Beneficiaries
Supplemental Security Income Recipient Composition

OCACT/SSA 5

Aged

14%

Disabled children 

under 18

14%

Disabled adults 18-

64

58%

Disabled adults 65 

and older

14%

Federally-Administered SSI Recipients in Current-Payment Status

8 million total recipients in October 2019

5 million

1 million 1 million

1 million

Figure 2: Distribution of SSI Recipients
Disability Benefit Types

 Social Security Disability

 Disabled workers – insured for benefits on their own earnings history

 Generally need 20 QCs out of the last 40 quarters (age 31+)

 Reclassified as retired workers upon attainment of NRA

 8.4 million, 86% of disabled beneficiaries in 10/19

 Disabled adult children – at least age 16 with a disability beginning before age 22

 Children of a beneficiary entitled to Social Security (retired or disabled worker) 

 Surviving children of a deceased worker who had the appropriate insured status

 1.1 million, 12% of all disabled beneficiaries in 10/19

 Disabled widow(er)s – at least age 50, survivor of a deceased spouse and disabled

 0.2 million, 3% 

OCACT/SSA 6
Disability Benefit Types (Cont’d)

 SSI Adult Disability

 Ages 18 and older and disabled

 Unlike Social Security, generally not reclassified as “Aged” at attainment of age 65

 4.7 million 18-64, 67% of SSI disabled in 10/19

 1.1 million 65 or older, 16% of SSI disabled in 10/19

 SSI Childhood Disability

 Under age 18

 Definition of disability different than other categories (Social Security, SSI adults)

 At attainment of age 18, re-evaluated to see if they meet the adult definition

OCACT/SSA 7
Definition of Disability

 Adult Disability Standard

 Applies to adults age 18 or older

 Inability to engage in substantial gainful activity (SGA) due to a medically 

determinable impairment expected to result in death or last at least 12 months

 Includes mental and physical impairments

 SGA = $1,220 per month in 2019. Adjusted by average wages each year

 Working at or above SGA generally results in a finding of not disabled at 

application

 Post-entitlement: Periodic reviews to ensure beneficiaries still meet the definition of 

disability (MIRS)

 Post-entitlement: Rules regarding working at or above SGA are different

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Definition of Disability (Cont’d)

 Childhood Disability Standard

 Applies to children under age 18 applying for SSI

 Has a medically determinable impairment that results in marked and severe 

functional limitations that is expected to result in death or last at least 12 months

 Concept of SGA does not apply

 Post-entitlement periodic reviews to ensure beneficiaries still meet the definition 

of disability (MIRS)

 Upon attainment of age 18, the recipient is re-evaluated under the adult criteria; 

terminated if definition not met

OCACT/SSA 9
Application Process

 File an application for benefits:

 At any of SSA’s 1,300 field offices (FOs)

 Over the telephone through the 800-number system

 Over the internet (for most Social Security and some SSI claimants)

 Separate applications for Social Security and SSI, even for claimants 

filing for both

 FOs/PSCs evaluate whether the claimant is

 Working at SGA (if an adult)

 Insured for benefits (for Social Security benefits)

 Not a clear denial (for SSI payments)

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Application Process (Cont’d)

 If FOs cannot deny a claim, gather medical evidence and forward to 

claimant’s state Disability Determination Services (DDS)

 Responsible for determining if claimant is disabled according to the appropriate 

criteria

 Each state has at least one DDS, some have multiple

 For denials, there is an administrative appeals process

 Reconsideration at the DDSs

 Hearing before an Administrative Law Judge

 Appeals Council

 After all appeals are exhausted, claimant can appeal to the Federal 

Court system

OCACT/SSA 11
Benefit Applications in Fiscal Year 2019

 In fiscal year 2019 (Oct 2018-Sep 2019), SSA field offices received 

10.0 million applications for benefits.

 6.9 million Social Security claims

 4.8 million retired worker and non-disabled auxiliary claims

 2.1 million disability claims

 1.8 million SSI claims

 0.2 million based on age (65 or older and not alleging disability)

 1.6 million disability claims

 1.4 million claims for Medicare benefits (HI and/or SMI)

 Includes claims filed at field offices as well as claims taken through 

SSA’s 800 number and claims filed on the internet

OCACT/SSA 12
Why does OCACT care about applications?

 Estimate applications for baseline projections

 Social Security Trustees Report

 SSI Annual Report

 President’s Budget projections

 Evaluate effects on incidence rates

 Informative for estimates of legislative and regulatory proposals

 SSA uses our application projections in the formulation of its 

administrative budget

OCACT/SSA 13
Disability Applications Are Expensive!

 October 2019 – 15% of Social Security beneficiaries were disabled

 In FY 2019

 About 31% of Social Security benefit applications alleged disability

 Over 90% of SSI claims involve disability

 Average cost to process disability claim = $1,300 in FY 2018

 Does not account for appeals costs – can be several thousand dollars more

 Total administrative expenses

 Social Security – DI is about 41% of all OASDI administrative expenses ($2.8 

billion for DI vs $3.9 billion for OASI in FY19)

 In FY 2018, SSI administrative expenses were $4.4 billion – SSI is primarily 

disability-driven

OCACT/SSA 14
Field Office Disability Receipt Experience

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0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Number of receipts (in thousands)

Fiscal year

Figure 3: Disability Receipts at SSA Field Offices for Titles II and XVI

FYs 1990-2019

All other disability receipts

Technical denial receipts

Total disability 

receipts, titles

II and XVI
Field Office Disability Receipt Experience (Cont’d)

OCACT/SSA 16

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Number of receipts (in thousands)

Fiscal year

Figure 4: Disability Receipts at SSA Field Offices for Title II (Social Security)

FYs 1990-2019

All other disability receipts

Technical denial receipts

Total title II 

disability receipts
Field Office Disability Receipt Experience (Cont’d)

OCACT/SSA 17

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Number of receipts (in thousands)

Fiscal year

Figure 5: Disability Receipts at SSA Field Offices for Title XVI (SSI)

FYs 1990-2019

All other disability receipts

Technical denial receipts

Total title XVI 

disability receipts
Field Office Disability Receipt Experience by State (OASDI)

OCACT/SSA 18

MO

SD

NM

ND

WY

MD

AZ

WA

CO

MT

AL

NY

TX

LA

NJ

GA

OK

PA

FL

NC

HI

UT

CA

ID

IL

DC

Total

IN

OR

SC

AR

DE

VA

MS

WI

MN

OH

WV

TN

KY

MI

CT

NV

IA

NE

ME

NH

MA

AK

RI

KS

VT

-80% -75% -70% -65% -60% -55% -50% -45% -40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%

Percentage change

Figure 6: Percentage change in disabled worker receipts at SSA field offices by state

Total cumulative change over fiscal years 2010 to 2019
Field Office Disability Receipt Experience by State (SSI)

OCACT/SSA 19

SD

AZ

CT

WA

MO

MD

ND

NJ

OR

GA

HI

MT

FL

WY

OK

CO

NY

DC

UT

PA

VA

IN

MS

Total

SC

LA

ID

TX

KY

NC

WI

AR

CA

ME

IL

MN

AL

TN

DE

OH

RI

WV

NM

MA

MI

IA

NV

NE

NH

AK

VT

KS

-80% -75% -70% -65% -60% -55% -50% -45% -40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%

Percentage change

Figure 7: Percentage change in disabled worker receipts at SSA field offices by state

Total cumulative change over fiscal years 2010 to 2019
Field Office Disability Receipt Experience by ACA Expansion

OCACT/SSA 20

Table 1.-Percentage change in disability field office receipts relative to the prior fiscal year

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Title XVI field office receipts

All Title XVI applications 4.1% 0.6% -3.8% -8.9% -9.1% -1.4% -8.5% -7.0% -3.7% -3.2%

States not expanding 7.3% 0.2% -4.1% -7.9% -8.1% -2.5% -7.2% -6.5% -3.6% -4.3%

States expanding in 2014 1.9% 1.2% -3.4% -9.4% -9.9% -0.9% -9.8% -7.4% -3.6% -2.8%

States expanding in 2015 2.9% 0.5% -3.1% -11.2% -8.7% -1.6% -8.9% -7.1% -4.6% -1.2%

States expanding in 2016 4.8% -0.8% -5.2% -8.0% -8.6% 0.3% -6.3% -6.6% -4.6% -2.8%

Title II disabled worker field office receipts (excluding technical denials)

All Title II DIBs 5.1% -2.0% -5.5% -5.2% -2.8% -6.0% -6.1% -6.3% -1.4% -5.8%

States not expanding 7.6% 0.2% -4.5% -4.9% -4.0% -6.3% -4.6% -5.6% -2.7% -5.0%

States expanding in 2014 3.9% -3.6% -6.4% -5.4% -2.0% -6.3% -7.5% -6.8% -0.7% -6.6%

States expanding in 2015 3.0% 0.2% -2.9% -6.2% -4.2% -7.0% -6.4% -7.0% -0.9% -6.3%

States expanding in 2016 4.6% -2.9% -6.1% -5.0% -1.8% -3.7% -4.4% -5.7% -1.1% -4.8%
Field Office Disability Receipt Experience by Rural vs Urban

OCACT/SSA 21

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

19731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016

Figure 8: DI Disabled Worker Applications

By year of application and rurality indicator

Note: 0 is the most urbanized area; 9 is the most rural 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Field Office Disability Receipt Experience by Rural vs Urban

OCACT/SSA 22

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

19731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016

Figure 9: DI Disabled Worker Applications

By year of application and rurality indicator (excluding most urbanized areas)

Note: 0 is the most urbanized area; 9 is the most rural 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Initial DDS Receipt Experience

OCACT/SSA 23

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Number of receipts (in thousands)

Fiscal year

Figure 10: Disability Receipts at the DDSs for Titles II and XVI

FYs 1990-2019

Total title XVI receipts

Total title II receipts

Total receipts, 

titlesII and XVI
Initial DDS Receipt Experience

OCACT/SSA 24

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Number of receipts (in thousands)

Fiscal year

Figure 11: Title II and XVI Disability Receipts at the DDSs by Program Involvement

FYs 1990-2019

Title XVI-only receipts

Title II-only receipts

Concurrent receipts

Total receipts
Initial DDS Receipt Experience

OCACT/SSA 25

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Number of receipts (in thousands)

Fiscal year

Figure 12: Title II Disability Receipts at the DDSs

FYs 1990-2019

Total title II receipts

Title II-only receipts

Concurrent receipts
Initial DDS Receipt Experience

OCACT/SSA 26

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Number of receipts (in thousands)

Fiscal year

Figure 13: Title XVI Disability Receipts at the DDSs

FYs 2001-2019

Total title XVI receipts

Concurrent adultreceipts

Title XVI-only 

adultreceipts

Title XVI child receipts
Disability Receipts by Impairment - OASDI

OCACT/SSA 27

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Figure 14: Percentage distribution of OASDI disability claims filed by major impairment category and fiscal year

UNKNOWN INFECT NEOPLA ENDOCR BLOOD ORGANIC MENTALOTHER SCHIZO

MOOD AUTISTIC CHILDHOOD DEVELOP INTELLECT NERVOUS CIRCUL RESPIR

DIGEST GENITO SKIN MUSCUL CONGEN OTHER INJURY
Disability Receipts by Impairment – SSI Adults

OCACT/SSA 28

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Figure 15: Percentage distribution of SSI adult claims filed by major impairment category and fiscal year

UNKNOWN INFECT NEOPLA ENDOCR BLOOD ORGANIC MENTALOTHER SCHIZO

MOOD AUTISTIC CHILDHOOD DEVELOP INTELLECT NERVOUS CIRCUL RESPIR

DIGEST GENITO SKIN MUSCUL CONGEN OTHER INJURY
Disability Receipts by Impairment – SSI Children

OCACT/SSA 29

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Figure 16: Percentage distribution of SSI child claims filed by major impairment category and fiscal year

UNKNOWN INFECT NEOPLA ENDOCR BLOOD ORGANIC MENTALOTHER SCHIZO

MOOD AUTISTIC CHILDHOOD DEVELOP INTELLECT NERVOUS CIRCUL RESPIR

DIGEST GENITO SKIN MUSCUL CONGEN OTHER INJURY
Application Receipt Rates

 DI Workers – Initial DDS receipts relative to exposed population

 Number insured less number already on DI rolls

 SSI – Field office applications relative to exposed population

 Total population less other than legal immigrant population less those already in 

SSI receipt

OCACT/SSA 30
Application Receipt Rates (DI)

OCACT/SSA 31

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Receipts per 1,000 exposed

Fiscal Year

Figure 17: OASDI Disabled Worker Initial DDS Receipt Rates

Gross Age-sex-adjusted (to year 2000 exposed population)
Application Receipt Rates (SSI)

OCACT/SSA 32

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Receipts per 1,000 exposed

Fiscal Year

Figure 18: SSI Disabled Child Field Office Application Rates

Adults Children

Solid lines = gross rates

Dotted lines = age-sex-adjusted rates 

(adjusted to year 2000 exposure)
Application Receipt Rates (DI males)

OCACT/SSA 33

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66

Rec eipts per 1,000 exposed

Age

Figure 19: OASDI disabled worker DDS receipts per one-thousand exposed by single age

for select years on a fiscal year basis, Males

2001 2006 2011 2016 2019
Application Receipt Rates (DI females)

OCACT/SSA 34

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66

Receipts per 1,000 exposed

Age

Figure 20: OASDI disabled worker DDS receipts per one-thousand exposed by single age

for select years on a fiscal year basis, Females

2001 2006 2011 2016 2018
Application Receipt Rate Ratios (DI males)

OCACT/SSA 35

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66

Rec eipts per 1,000 exposed relative to 2001 level

Age

Figure 21: OASDI disabled worker DDS receipt rates by single age as a ratio of the FY 2001 rate

for select years on a fiscal year basis, Males

2006 2011 2016 2019
Application Receipt Rate Ratios (DI females)

OCACT/SSA 36

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66

Receipts per 1,000 exposed relative to 2001 level

Age

Figure 22: OASDI disabled worker DDS receipt rates by single age as a ratio of the FY 2001 rate

for select years on a fiscal year basis, Females

2006 2011 2016 2019
Recent Favorable Disability Experience

 Applications and incidence are at historic low levels

 Numbers of beneficiaries /recipients have been declining since 2013

 Prevalence rates have peaked and are dropping

 What about the future: Are declines temporary, or the new state? 

 Economy and jobs—temporary 

 Drop in hearings allowance rates—temporary? 

 Changing nature of work in the economy

 Increased access to health care (ACA)

 Field office consolidations

 Attorney representation

 Something more fundamental?

OCACT/SSA 37
Long-Range Disability Projection Model

Tiffany Bosley

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

MAAC Presentation

November 19, 2019

38
Overview

• The Social Security Administration pays monthly disability benefits to 

disability-insured workers who meet the definition of “disability”. If they 

meet certain requirements, spouses and children of disabled-worker 

beneficiaries may also receive monthly benefits.

• 155 million workers under age 66 are insured against becoming unable to 

work

• 8.5 million workers now receive DI benefits

o 1.6 million “dependents” – mostly children

• Many more protected from loss of insured status

o And from low retirement benefits

• Benefits replace 40% to 45% of career earnings on average

o About 80% for very-low earner, about 28% for steady maximum earner

39
Long-Range Disability Model

• The long-range disability model projects the number of disabled-worker 

beneficiaries in current-payment status at the end of each year by age at 

entitlement, sex, and duration from entitlement.

• We calculate the number of disabled-worker beneficiaries at the end of year by 

adding the number of newly entitled during the year and subtracting the number 

who leave the disability rolls during the year to the number of disabled-worker 

beneficiaries at the beginning of the year.

Currently EntitledEOY = Currently EntitledBOY + New Entitlements(year) – Exits(year)

40
Long-Range Disability Model

 New Entitlements(year) = ExposureBOY * Incidence Rate(year)

 Disabled-worker beneficiaries who leave the disability rolls do so by 

 recovering from disabilities,

 dying, and 

 converting to retired worker status.

 Exits(year) = Recoveries(year) + Deaths(year) + Conversions(year)

 Recoveries(year) = Currently EntitledBOY * Recovery Rate(year)

 Deaths(year) = Currently EntitledBOY * Death Rate(year)

41
Incidence rates

• In the 2019 TR, the ultimate age-sex-adjusted disability incidence rate was 5.2 

per 1,000 exposed.

• The 5.2 incidence rate equals the historical average experienced from 1995 

through 2018 and is slightly higher than the most recent ten-year historical 

average (5.1 awards per thousand) experienced from 2009 through 2018.

42
43

Effect of the Economy on DI Incidence Rate—2019 TR



0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Unemployment rates (%) and incidence rates (per 1,000 exposed)

Calendar year

Age-sex-adjusted disabled worker incidence rate

Civilian unemployment rate

Historical Estimated

Recession + 

SSI (1974)

Recession

Recession

Recession

Recession

1970-74: Large

benefit increases

1980 Amendments: PER,

CDRs,Lower Family Max, EPE

1984 Amendments: Revised mental listing,

medical improvement standard for CDRs,

consideration of multiple impairments

1996 Amendments: DA&A,

special CDR funding

SSI Outreach 1990
44

New Disabled-Worker Awards per 1,000 Exposed

Age-Adjusted (2000), 2019 TR


Deaths

• Death rates are much higher for the disabled population than the general 

population.

• In the model, the base probabilities of death by duration, age, and sex are 

applied to the disabled-worker population.

• Death Projection

o First Year – 10 year Regression

o Mortality Improvement – General Population

45
46

Age-Sex-Adjusted Comparison of SSA General Population to 

Disabled-Worker Death Rates


Recovery Rates

• Disabled-worker beneficiaries who recover from their medically-determinable 

disabling condition or return to substantial work for an extended period are 

deemed to have recovered, and their benefits are then terminated. 

• The ultimate disability recovery rate is equal to the average recovery rate by age 

group and sex for the years 1985-2005, excluding 1997.

• The projected age-sex-adjusted recovery rate (medical improvement and return 

to work) in the 2019 TR is 10.3 per thousand.

47
48

Disabled-Worker Recoveries per 1,000 Beneficiaries

Age-Sex-Adjusted (2000), 2019 TR


49

Disabled Worker Prevalence Rates (all through age 64)
Dependent Beneficiary of Disabled Workers

• The disability model also projects the number of future dependent beneficiaries 

of disabled workers by category, age, and sex. 

o Six categories: minor child, student child, disabled adult child, young spouse, married aged 

spouse and divorced aged spouse. 

• We generate the numbers of dependent beneficiaries of disabled workers by 

multiplying the relevant subset of the SSA area population (Exposures) by a 

series of probabilities that relate to the regulations and requirements for 

obtaining benefits (Linkages)

o Dependent Beneficiaries of DIBEOY = ExposuresEOY * LinkagesEOY

50
Resource information

2019 Social Security Trustees Report: https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2019/index.html

2019 SSI Annual Report: https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/ssir/SSI19/index.html

2019TR Long-Range Model Documentation: 

https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2019/2019_LR_Model_Documentation.pdf

2019TR Long-Range Disability Assumption Memo: 

https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2019/2019_Long-Range_Disability_Assumptions.pdf

Contact us by email at actuary@ssa.gov.

OCACT/SSA 51