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ARS Home Plains Area Las Cruces, New Mexico Range Management Research Research





- Elias, Emile
- 2023
- 2022
- 2021
- Publications
- Soil and Air (212)
- Grass, Forage, and Rangeland Agroecosystems (215)
- Sustainable Agricultural Systems Research (216)

Research Project: The USDA ARS Climate Hubs – Increasing Agricultural Productivity and Sustainability by Impactful Development and Communication of Climate Smart Agricultural Research and Practices – Las Cruces, NM **Location:
                            Range Management Research** 2023 Annual Report **Objectives**
                                

Objective 1: Enable climate-smart decision-making by developing science-based, region-specific information, tools and technologies for agricultural and natural resource managers, and provide assistance where possible to enhance adoption and implementation of the same.  The work will be conducted as the Southwest USDA Climate Change Hub and will be coordinated with NRCS, FS, and other USDA and non-USDA organizations in accordance with guidance found in the USDA Climate Change Hubs Charter, and Terms of Reference.

Objective 2:  Expand and enhance each Hub’s research and communication capacity and ensure integration of ARS research outcomes from across the region into Hub outreach assets.

Objective #3: Provide capacity to expand and enhance the hub’s climate-science, social-science, and economic-science resources and tools via enhanced collaboration with ARS research teams and other research partners to ensure impactful integration of ARS research outcomes from across the region into Hub outreach assets. **Approach**
                                

The climate hubs relate directly to the Sustainable Agricultural Systems Research National Program (NP216) Action Plan (2018-2022), Component 3. Achieving Agroecosystem Potential and these problem statements: Problem Statement 3a. Sustaining Intensified Production; Problem Statement 3b. Enhancing ecosystem services; and Problem Statement 3c. Enabling decision support for sustainability. **Progress Report**
                                

Sustainable Southwest Beef Project: Southwestern ranchers face a future climate with warmer temperatures, changed precipitation patterns, and in some areas, declining rangeland forage production. Frequent droughts and spatially variable precipitation are also typical of the region. Virtual fencing and remotely monitoring water troughs, rain gauges, and cattle locations, can help producers adapt by providing more flexibility in grazing management and vital information about remote pastures. However, there is limited information in circulation about these technologies. A team of the Sustainable Southwest Beef Project, led by the Southwest Climate Hub, have developed precision ranching resources, hosted on-ranch demonstrations and updated tools for the beef industry, a library of more than 580 livestock related decision support tools. Partners include USDA Southern Plains Hub, New Mexico State University and Utah State University. https://southwestbeef.org/resources
Vesicular Stomatitis and Climate: Accompanying climate change is a likely expansion of the ranges of certain vector-borne livestock diseases such as Vesicular Stomatitis. Researchers used geospatial analysis to provide a deeper understanding of how climate, landscape and other factors might affect the distribution of livestock vector disease, and how those might be impacted by a changing climate. 
Water Adaptation Techniques Atlas: In 2022, the Southwest Climate Hub launched the Water Adaptation Techniques Atlas (WATA) which shares information about responses to southwestern water scarcity. WATA now contains 138 examples of water adaptation (as of July 28, 2023). It was presented at more than 6 conferences and used as the foundation for additional funding applications to expand to the Southern Plains, the Northern Plains, and California. A team of four people continues to populate WATA with water scarcity solutions which will be the foundation for an assessment of the tradeoffs and efficacy of specific solutions in specific locations. The Southwest Climate Hub presented WATA at the February National Institutes for Food Agriculture Tribal Programs meeting, highlighting projects that combine restoration of ecologically and culturally important riparian habitats with aquifer recharge, and solar powered desalination for brackish groundwater on the Navajo Nation. Initial funds for this program were provided by the Economic Research Service and the Office of the Chief Economist and now a climate hub fellow manages the project. https://webapps.jornada.nmsu.edu/wata/
Adaptation Workshops: There is abundant science related to climate adaptation in forests and grasslands, but interpreting and applying this science can be challenging for practitioners who often have conflicting priorities and little time to decide what has relevance for their location. Therefore, the Southwest Climate Hub organized and hosted three adaptation workshops with National Forests where resource specialists, managers, and researchers could work together using the Adaptation Workbook to determine which climate impacts are of greatest concern to them and identify management opportunities for adapting to change. 
Drought in Hawaii: Over the past 20 years, drought has caused millions of dollars’ worth of losses to ranching and agriculture in Hawaii. In October 2022, almost all the land area of the Hawai'ian Islands was experiencing some level of short- or long-term drought. To improve collaboration with Drought Monitor authors and increase support for impacts reporting, the Southwest Climate Hub partnered with the National Drought Mitigation Center to hold four workshops on each of the four largest islands. As a result of the workshops the Southwest Climate Hub and the National Drought Mitigation Center have a better understanding of drought information needs in Hawaii and of ways to improve communication and collaboration. 
Drought Learning Network: The Southwest Drought Learning Network was formed in response to the exceptional drought of 2018, which is the highest classification of drought in the United States Drought Monitor. The network continues to grow, with more than 120 participants. During FY 2023, network partners hosted drought briefings, published case studies, and planned an annual meeting to be hosted at the Southwestern Indian Polytechnic Institute in Albuquerque, New Mexico in September 2023. The network is collectively managed by the Southwest Climate Hub, the National Integrated Drought Information System, and the National Drought Mitigation Center and supports peer-to-peer learning to build drought resilience.
Forest Resources Inventory: In 2022, the Southwest Climate Hub and the Southwest and South Central Climate Adaptation Science Centers launched a collaborative program to build a forest management toolshed to support climate change adaptation decision-making. We have made good progress on this tool, the Forest Resource Index for Decisions in Adaptation, and expect to release it in 2023. A prototype is available at: https://webapps.jornada.nmsu.edu/frida/ 
5th National Climate Assessment: Members of the Southwest Climate Hub team led and contributed to the Southwest Chapter (Chapter 28) of the fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5). Authors have completed their work on the NCA5 and final release of the assessment will be in the Fall 2023. Members of the SWCH team will present the assessment at national conferences, such as the American Geophysical Union meeting in December 2023.
Aquatic storymap: The water-limited southwestern U.S. is home to critical aquatic and riparian ecosystems that sustain an extraordinary level of biodiversity and services to local communities. However, water is already scarce in this region and warmer temperatures and extended droughts are expected to reduce the volume of water available to these ecosystems in the future. Recognizing the need to understand future impacts on these systems (and potential solutions), the United States Forest Service (USFS) conducted the Aquatic-Riparian Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment. The USFS requested support in making the report findings more accessible to a wider audience, therefore the Southwest Climate Hub collaborated with USFS scientists to produce a storymap that summarizes the report findings and shares results from vulnerability mapping on interactive maps.  This was completed in partnership with USFS region 3 and New Mexico State University. https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2d998ed0bc8743c9b6f36edc18e88ee8 
Investigating Carbon Storage in the Southwest and Southern Plains: Progress has been made during 2023 on modelling for this effort, along with some presentations and discussions. This effort and Natural Resources Conservation Service leadership meetings will continue into 2024. **Accomplishments**
                                

1. Synthesizing climate risks and solutions improves Southwest climate resilience. Farmers, ranchers, foresters, and communities in the Southwest are coping with increased climate risk, intensifying drought, severe wildfires and expanding extreme weather events. Adaptation to climate change is essential if we are to maintain ecosystem integrity, food security and resilient communities. There is a growing demand for synthesized climate risk and adaptation knowledge in this diverse region. Therefore, Agricultural Research Service (ARS) scientists in Las Cruces, New Mexico, continue to produce, synthesize and share climate research and adaptation findings via diverse pathways. In fiscal year 2023, ARS scientists led the Southwest Chapter of the 5th National Climate Assessment. Scientists also developed the USDA Water Research Vision, the Southwest Drought Learning Network, and knowledge about hotspots of Vesicular Stomatitis Virus. By leading national assessments, visioning efforts, scientific symposia, podcasts, and peer-reviewed journal articles, ARS has built a deep knowledge of scientifically grounded current and expected climate impacts and knowledge gaps. Encouraging continued inquiry into knowledge gaps related to climate change and agriculture is a fundamental value of the Climate Hub network, which operates as the interface of science and management. Partners rely upon ARS scientists to share the most authoritative scientific information to advance adaptation and mitigation. 2. Climate adaptation through precision ranching and heritage breeds. Southwestern ranchers face a future climate with warmer temperatures, changed precipitation patterns, and in some areas, declining rangeland forage production. Frequent droughts and spatially variable precipitation are also typical of the region. Virtual fencing and remotely monitoring water troughs, rain gauges, and cattle locations, can help producers adapt by providing more flexibility in grazing management and vital information about remote pastures. However, there is limited information in circulation about these technologies. A team of the Sustainable Southwest Beef Project, led by the ARS researchers in Las Cruces, New Mexico, as part of the multi-agency Southwest Climate Hub, has developed resources to share information from the project’s research into Precision Ranching Technologies and Criollo cattle. The team also hosted on-ranch demonstrations and updated Tools for the Beef Industry, a library of more than 580 livestock related decision support tools. https://southwestbeef.org/resources 3. Increasing the pace and scale of climate adaptation via the Southwest Adaptation Forum. Climate change impacts such as rising temperatures, increasing water scarcity, prolonged drought, and more frequent, more destructive wildfires are all occurring in a region where there are huge disparities in the ability of communities to adapt to climate change. The Southwest Climate Hub joined the Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center, the South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center and Southwest Decision Resources to plan and host the Southwest Adaptation Forum (SWAF) in Albuquerque, New Mexico. SWAF provides a platform for sharing and discussing advances in adaptation practices in the southwest as well as encouraging necessary conversations around environmental and climate justice. The 2022 SWAF, was held at the Indian Pueblo Cultural Center. This meeting built on the work started at the 2018 and 2021 SWAFs, further exploring topics relevant to adaptation practitioners in the Southwest, such as cultural burning, drought, and ecosystem transformation. More than 140 people attended the Adaptation Forum and tribal partners requested annual future meetings. 4. Decision-support delivery to internal and external advisors builds resilience to climate risks. Weather-related challenges in U.S. southwestern communities and ecosystems include crop loss, extreme drought, variability in rangeland production, and wildfire. ARS researchers in Las Cruces, New Mexico, as part of the multi-agency Southwest Climate Hub, updated, maintained and shared a cadre of decision-support tools including the AgRisk Viewer (a tool sharing indemnity payments by crop from the national to county level on a monthly time-step, the dust mitigation handbook, the Climate Quick Reference Guides, Tools for the Beef Industry, and the AfterFire toolkit. We also shared the Grass-Cast forage production forecasting tool via creative means such as short videos. We continue research with partners to understand biophysical relationships underpinning Grass-Cast. We also recognize decision-support as leading groups of people through an established cliamte adaptatoin process based upon an adaptation workbook pioneered by the Northern Forests Climate Hub. 
Given our continued work in the data-driven decision-support arena, in 2023 the Southwest Climate Hub was invited to present at the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum to present on the Adaptation Workbook (from the Northern Forests Climate Hub) and the AgRisk Viewer (from the Southwest Climate Hub). 5. Sharing water scarcity solutions to build resilience to future drought. For decades, scientists, Extension, Tribes, government agencies, and individuals have sought solutions to water scarcity in the southwest. Yet there is no central location for archiving these efforts and making the information more accessible. Therefore, the Southwest Climate Hub in Las Cruces, New Mexico, has been developing a Water Adaptation Techniques Atlas (WATA) which shares information about responses to southwestern water scarcity. WATA now contains 138 examples of water adaptation (as of July 28, 2023). It was presented at six conferences and incorporated into three additional funding requests led by outside partners to expand to the Southern Plains, the Northern Plains, and California. A team of people continues to populate WATA with water scarcity solutions which will be the foundation for an assessment of the tradeoffs and efficacy of specific solutions in specific locations. The Southwest Climate Hub presented WATA on the February National Institutes for Food Agriculture Tribal Programs meeting, highlighting projects that combine restoration of ecologically and culturally important riparian habitats with aquifer recharge, and solar powered desalination for brackish groundwater on the Navajo Nation. https://webapps.jornada.nmsu.edu/wata/ 6. Expanding collaboration with indigenous partners in the Southwest. The Southwest Climate Hub is partnering on four projects to build climate resilience with indigenous partners. ARS researchers in Las Cruces, New Mexico, as part of the multi-agency Southwest Climate Hub established cooperative agreements with two tribal land grant colleges, Dine College and the Institute of American Indian Arts. We are also partnering with the National Drought Mitigation Center on a drought project with the Six Northern Pueblos in New Mexico. Finally, we are working with the Native Climate project funded via the Climate Hub – Extension Partnership grant designed to make climate data more accessible to Tribes, build capacity through Native Climate Fellows, and support Native Climate student interns to report on climate impacts and tribal resilience on their reservations. **Review Publications**
                            *Elias, E.H., Savoy, H.M., Swanson, D.A., Cohnstaedt, L.W., Peters, D.C., Derner, J.D., Pelzel-McClusky, A., Drolet, B.S., Rodriguez, L.L. 2022. Landscape dynamics of a vector-borne disease in the Western US: How vector-habitat relationships inform disease hotspots. Ecosphere. 13(11). Article e4267. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4267.*
                                *Elias, E.H., Fuchs, B., Lisonbee, J., Bernadt, B., Martinez, V., Haigh, T. 2023. Evolution of the Southwest Drought Learning Network: Collective response to exceptional drought. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 4(5):E935-E942. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0017.1.*
                                *Elias, E.H., Tsegaye, T.D., Hapeman, C.J., Mankin, K.R., Kleinman, P.J., Cosh, M.H., Peck, D.E., Coffin, A.W., Archer, D.W., Alfieri, J.G., Anderson, M.C., Baffaut, C., Baker, J.M., Bingner, R.L., Bjorneberg, D.L., Bryant, R.B., Gao, F.N., Gao, S., Heilman, P., Knipper, K.R., Kustas, W.P., Leytem, A.B., Locke, M.A., McCarty, G.W., McElrone, A.J., Moglen, G.E., Moriasi, D.N., O'Shaughnessy, S.A., Reba, M.L., Rice, P.J., Silber-Coats, N., Wang, D., White, M.J., Dobrowolski, J.P. 2023. A vision for integrated, collaborative solutions to critical water and food challenges. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation. 78(3):63A-68A. https://doi.org/10.2489/jswc.2023.1220A.*
                                *Gifford, C., Taylor, K., Spiegal, S.A., Duff, G., Aney, S., Elias, E.H., Steiner, J., Estell, R.E., MacFarlane, Z.D., Schohr, T.K., DeAtley, K.L., Banwarth, M.R. 2023. Bull selection and management in extensive rangeland production systems of New Mexico: A producer survey. Translational Animal Science. 7(1):1-13. https://doi.org/10.1093/tas/txac167.*
                                *McIntosh, M.M., Spiegal, S.A., McIntosh, S.Z., Sanchez, C.J., Estell, R.E., Steele, C.M., Elias, E.H., Bailey, D.W., Brown, J.R., Cibils, A.F. 2023. Matching beef cattle breeds to the environment for desired outcomes in a changing climate: A systematic review. Journal of Arid Environments. 211. Article 104905. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2022.104905.*
                                *Ifekharul Islam, K., Elias, E.H., Brown, C.P., James, D.K., Heimel, S. 2022. A statistical approach to using remote sensing data to discern streamflow variable influence in the snow melt dominated Upper Rio Grande Basin. Remote Sensing. 14(23). Article 6076. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14236076.*
                                *Duni, D.M., McIntosh, M.M., Nyamuryekung'E, S., Cibils, A.F., Duniway, M.C., Estell, R.E., Spiegal, S.A., Gonzalez, A.L., Gedefaw, M.G., Redd, M., Paulin, R., Steele, C.M., Utsumi, S.A., Perea, A.R. 2023. Foraging behavior of Raramuri Criollo vs. Angus cattle grazing California Chaparral and Colorado Plateau shrublands. Journal of Arid Environments. 213. Article 104975. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2023.104975.*
                                *Iftekharul Islam, K., Elias, E.H., Carroll, K.C., Brown, C. 2023. Exploring random forest machine learning and remote sensing data for streamflow prediction: An alternative approach to a process-based hydrologic modeling in a snowmelt-driven watershed. Remote Sensing. 15(16). Article 3999. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15163999.*


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