SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE MD 21235-0001

May 8, 2013 

The Honorable Marco Rubio

United States Senate

Washington, D.C. 20510

Dear Senator Rubio:

I am writing in response to your request for estimates of the financial effects on Social Security 

of S. 744, the “Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act,” as 

referred to the Committee on the Judiciary on April 17, 2013. We have worked closely with Jon 

Baselice of your staff to understand the specifics and the intent of the proposal. The preliminary 

estimates provided in the enclosed Table 1 are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 

2012 Trustees Report, with additional assumptions about the evolution of immigration under the 

proposal. The estimates presented reflect the combined efforts of many in our office, but 

particularly Alice Wade, Michael Morris, Pat Skirvin, Danielle Huston, Mark Bye, and 

Christopher Chaplain. 

The proposal includes extensive provisions for the treatment of individuals living in the United 

States without current legal documentation as of December 31, 2011. We estimate that there 

were about 11.5 million such individuals, of whom about 8 million will apply for and be granted 

Registered Provisional Immigrant (RPI) status. Many of these individuals already work in the 

country in the underground economy, not paying taxes, and will begin paying taxes upon 

application for RPI. After 6 years, those with RPI status are required to meet certain 

requirements to renew RPI status. We assume these requirements will diminish the number 

applying for RPI status initially and will result in a small decline in the number with RPI status 

after 2021. 

The bill also makes very substantial changes in legal immigration classifications and limits. We 

have done our best to estimate the effects of these changes with the help of Jon and many others 

who are working to analyze the bill. We estimate a significant increase in both the population 

and the number of workers paying taxes in the United States as a result of these changes in legal 

immigration limits.

Finally, we estimate that the measures in the bill for enforcement of border control and for 

employment verification will have significant effects on the future number of individuals 

entering the country without legal authorization. We estimate these provisions will reduce the 

number entering the country without authorization by about half a million per year by the time 

the measures are fully implemented.

Please note that these estimates are preliminary and are subject to change in the future as we 

further develop our estimates. In particular, we are working to develop full 75-year estimates of 
2

the implications of the bill as quickly as possible. Over this longer time frame, benefits will 

become more significant for those with additional earnings taxed and credited. However, over 

this same longer time frame, the additional births for the increased population under this bill will 

have substantial positive effects. Overall, we anticipate that the net effect of this bill on the longrange OASDI actuarial balance will be positive. This positive effect for increased immigration is 

consistent with the sensitivity analysis contained in the 2012 Trustees Report.

Please let us know if we may be of any further assistance. We will provide the expanded longrange estimates as soon as possible.

 Sincerely,

Stephen C. Goss

Chief Actuary

Enclosure 
Table 1: S744 Senate Immigration Bill as Introduced April 17, 2013

SUMMARY--Changes from 2012 TR Baseline

Calendar Year Total

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2014-24

Change in U.S. Resident Population millions

 For those Undocumented in U.S. December 31, 2011 0.309 0.464 0.620 0.776 0.931 1.085 1.329 1.573 1.814 1.948 2.103

 Nonimmigrants H1, H2, W2, W3, W (including those adjust to LPR) 0.025 0.147 0.275 0.407 0.538 0.653 0.756 0.853 0.946 1.027 1.102

 Merit-based Visas(backlog reduction) + Employment - Diversity 0.000 0.575 1.118 1.628 2.104 2.585 3.046 3.514 3.480 3.488 3.542

 Family-sponsored Visas & Immediate Relatives 0.075 0.144 0.213 0.281 0.344 0.400 0.456 0.513 0.569 0.625 0.681

 Enforcement effect (reduction in future undocumented entry) 0.000 -0.095 -0.271 -0.515 -0.813 -1.151 -1.421 -1.636 -1.810 -1.957 -2.090

 Total 0.409 1.235 1.955 2.577 3.104 3.571 4.166 4.816 4.999 5.132 5.339

Change in Number of Workers Paying FICA/SECA (for OASDHI) millions

 For those Undocumented in U.S. December 31, 2011 0.09 0.98 1.87 2.76 2.80 2.84 2.91 2.97 3.03 2.94 2.97

 Nonimmigrants H1, H2, W2, W3, W (including those adjust to LPR) 0.00 0.12 0.23 0.34 0.44 0.54 0.63 0.71 0.79 0.86 0.93

 Merit-based Visas(backlog reduction) + Employment - Diversity 0.00 0.43 0.84 1.22 1.58 1.94 2.28 2.64 2.61 2.62 2.66

 Family-sponsored Visas & Immediate Relatives 0.00 0.09 0.13 0.17 0.21 0.24 0.27 0.31 0.34 0.38 0.41

 Enforcement effect (reduction in future undocumented entry) 0.00 -0.02 -0.05 -0.10 -0.16 -0.23 -0.28 -0.33 -0.36 -0.39 -0.42

 Total 0.09 1.60 3.01 4.38 4.87 5.33 5.81 6.30 6.41 6.40 6.55

Change in FICA/SECA OASDI Tax Revenue millions

 For those Undocumented in U.S. December 31, 2011 $366 $4,181 $8,338 $12,905 $13,735 $14,552 $15,531 $16,525 $17,523 $17,635 $18,502 $139,791

 Nonimmigrants H1, H2, W2, W3, W (including those adjust to LPR) $0 $520 $1,023 $1,589 $2,202 $2,816 $3,445 $4,106 $4,798 $5,460 $6,119 $32,079

 Merit-based Visas(backlog reduction) + Employment - Diversity $0 $1,840 $3,740 $5,713 $7,741 $9,929 $12,208 $14,660 $15,073 $15,684 $16,535 $103,123

 Family-sponsored Visas & Immediate Relatives $0 $368 $569 $789 $1,012 $1,229 $1,463 $1,710 $1,971 $2,248 $2,544 $13,902

 Enforcement effect (reduction in future undocumented entry) $0 -$81 -$242 -$482 -$798 -$1,179 -$1,519 -$1,820 -$2,091 -$2,346 -$2,602 -$13,160

 Total $366 $6,827 $13,428 $20,514 $23,891 $27,347 $31,128 $35,181 $37,275 $38,680 $41,098 $275,736

Change in FICA/SECA HI Tax Revenue millions

 For those Undocumented in U.S. December 31, 2011 $86 $978 $1,950 $3,018 $3,212 $3,403 $3,632 $3,865 $4,098 $4,124 $4,327 $32,693

 Nonimmigrants H1, H2, W2, W3, W (including those adjust to LPR) $0 $122 $239 $372 $515 $659 $806 $960 $1,122 $1,277 $1,431 $7,502

 Merit-based Visas(backlog reduction) + Employment - Diversity $0 $430 $875 $1,336 $1,810 $2,322 $2,855 $3,429 $3,525 $3,668 $3,867 $24,117

 Family-sponsored Visas & Immediate Relatives $0 $86 $133 $185 $237 $287 $342 $400 $461 $526 $595 $3,251

 Enforcement effect (reduction in future undocumented entry) $0 -$19 -$57 -$113 -$187 -$276 -$355 -$426 -$489 -$549 -$608 -$3,078

 Total $86 $1,597 $3,140 $4,798 $5,588 $6,396 $7,280 $8,228 $8,717 $9,046 $9,612 $64,487

Change in Number of OASDI Beneficiaries thousands

 For those Undocumented in U.S. December 31, 2011 15 56 105 130 157 188 220 254 276 310

 Nonimmigrants H1, H2, W2, W3, W (including those adjust to LPR) 2 7 13 21 30 40 53 66 81 97

 Merit-based Visas(backlog reduction) + Employment - Diversity 6 25 47 73 107 147 195 218 246 277

 Family-sponsored Visas & Immediate Relatives 1 4 6 10 13 18 23 29 35 43

 Enforcement effect (reduction in future undocumented entry) 0 -2 -4 -8 -13 -18 -24 -30 -37 -44

 Total 24 91 167 227 295 375 467 537 601 683

Change in OASDI Cost millions

 For those Undocumented in U.S. December 31, 2011 $111 $441 $852 $1,091 $1,367 $1,695 $2,068 $2,489 $2,815 $3,285 $16,212

 Nonimmigrants H1, H2, W2, W3, W (including those adjust to LPR) $14 $54 $104 $173 $260 $366 $494 $648 $824 $1,022 $3,958

 Merit-based Visas(backlog reduction) + Employment - Diversity $49 $198 $377 $615 $933 $1,332 $1,835 $2,141 $2,503 $2,936 $12,918

 Family-sponsored Visas & Immediate Relatives $10 $30 $52 $80 $115 $160 $214 $280 $359 $452 $1,752

 Enforcement effect (reduction in future undocumented entry) -$2 -$13 -$32 -$63 -$111 -$166 -$228 -$297 -$374 -$462 -$1,748

 Total $181 $709 $1,353 $1,896 $2,564 $3,386 $4,384 $5,261 $6,126 $7,233 $33,093

Cumulative Number Applied/Approved for RPI Status (includes those subsequently adjusted to LPR) millions

 For those Undocumented in U.S. December 31, 2011 1/ 2.65 5.30 7.95 7.95 7.95 7.95 7.95 7.95 7.55 7.55

 Spouses and children of adult RPI not in U.S. on December 31, 2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.18 0.28 0.26 0.30

 Total 2.65 5.30 7.95 7.95 7.95 8.04 8.13 8.22 7.81 7.85

Change in Total U.S. Employment and GDP millions

 Change in total U.S. employment (millions) 0.23 0.88 1.38 1.78 2.10 2.36 2.67 3.03 3.05 3.12 3.22

Percent change in level of U.S. Employment 0.13% 0.51% 0.79% 1.01% 1.17% 1.31% 1.47% 1.67% 1.67% 1.70% 1.75%

Percent change in level of GDP 0.11% 0.49% 0.78% 1.02% 1.16% 1.28% 1.41% 1.58% 1.58% 1.60% 1.63%

 1/ Assuming that half of 1.8 million undocumented in the country since December 31, 2011 who would adjust to LPR under PL would become RPI under the Bill

Based largely on 2012 TR Intermediate assumptions Office of the Chief Actuary SSA May 8, 2013

PRELIMINARY Estimate of 10-Year Effect on U.S. Population, OASDI and HI Payroll Tax Covered Workers and Payroll Tax Revenue, and 

OASDI Beneficiaries and Cost