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Mortality Projections: A US Perspective on Approaches 

and Challenges

Steve Goss, Chief Actuary

Karen Glenn, Deputy Chief Actuary

US Social Security Administration
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Outline

 Our primary focus today: approaches to projecting mortality and the 

inherent challenges

 First, a bit about COVID-19

 Endnote on investment considerations
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COVID-19 Current and Long-Term Implications

 Raised death rates in US roughly 16% in 2020 and 18% in 2021

 Reduced life expectancy for affected cohorts

 But hopefully transient, not affecting future cohorts

 Thus, possibly no implication for “trend rate” in mortality 

 However, second coronavirus in 20 years

 Expect periodically in a now mobile world population?

 If deaths are raised by 16% in 2 of every 20 years:

 Average level of mortality will be 1.6% above “trend”
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Approaches That Can be Used for Projecting

 Age setback (early method)

 Age-sex rate of decline matching the past (Lee and Carter)

 Linear increase in life expectancy (Vaupel and Oeppen)

 Rate of decline by trend at all ages (2011 Technical Panel, CBO 2013-15)

 Improvement by cohort (UK CMI, SOA)

 Rate of decline by age, sex, and cause of death (SSA OCACT/Trustees)

 Understanding conditions of the past

 Reflecting how conditions in the future will be different
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Will Life Expectancy Rise Linearly?

Vaupel/Oeppen 2002; best nations

 Requires accelerating rate of 

decline in mortality rates if retain 

age gradient

 LE most affected by lowest 

ages—only so much gain 

possible

 Most disagree (Vallin/Meslé)
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Projection by Age, Sex, Cause

 SSA OCACT/Trustees Reports

 Requires selecting ultimate rates of decline

 Allows change in age gradient

 Consistent with deceleration in mortality decline
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Appropriate 

Data by Age 

Is Critical

Age gradient in 

past reduction 

is clear
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Developing Assumptions by Cause

 Scientific approach reflecting biology

 Trustees and SSA OCACT develop in consultation with other experts

 Johns Hopkins recent survey of medical researchers and clinicians 

came to very similar medium-term expectations—independently

 Trustees’ medium-term rates by cause had not been published 
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Age-adjusted Death Rates Due to Selected Leading 

Causes of Deaths: United States, 1900-2019

(courtesy Robert Anderson, NCHS)
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How Future Conditions Will Differ from the Past

 Heart disease past success—cancer and dementia will be harder

 Obesity—sedentary lifestyle

 Difference by income/earnings

 Health spending—must decelerate

 Advances only help if they apply to all

 Human limits

 Increasing recognition of deceleration
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Death Rates Vary by Career Average Earnings Quintile 

Bosley, Morris, Glenn (2018): have the spreads stabilized? At ages 65-69:
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Is There an 

Omega?

It appears we are 

rectangularizing

the survival curve
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Death Rates Will Continue to Decline: 

But How Fast and for Whom?

 Must understand past and future conditions

 Persistent historical “age gradient”

 Avoid simple extrapolation of past periods

 Cannot ignore changing conditions

⎯ “Limits” on longevity due to physiology

⎯ Latter half of 20th century was extraordinary

 So deceleration seems likely

 Cause-specific rates allow basis for assumptions

 Results: in the 1982 Trustees Report, we projected LE65 in 2015 to be 

19.03; actual was 19.05
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Mortality 

Experience: 

All Ages

Reductions slow 

after 2009, and 

continue to fall 

short of past 

trend
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Endnote: Investment of Reserves for Funding

 Substantial advance funding is difficult for social insurance

 US social insurance has only “contingency reserves”

 If more, what is the effect on markets? How much should SI hold?

 How to invest?

 Low-risk but low-yield government bonds?

 Private securities with higher expected yields?

 How to “value”?

 Expected yield, or “risk adjusted”?
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For More Information... http://www.ssa.gov/oact/

 Documentation of Trustees Report data & assumptions 

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2021/2021_LongRange_Demographic_Assumptions.pdf 

 Historical and projected mortality rates

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/HistEst/DeathHome.html

 Annual Trustees Reports 

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/index.html

 Email us at actuary@ssa.gov
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