THE LONG-RANGE DISABILITY ASSUMPTIONS

FOR THE 2022 TRUSTEES REPORT

OFFICE OF THE CHIEF ACTUARY

SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION

June 2, 2022
Disability, Page 2 

DISABILITY

ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE 2022 TRUSTEES REPORT

OFFICE OF THE CHIEF ACTUARY, SSA

TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE

1 OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................................... 3

2 DISABILITY INCIDENCE RATE ..................................................................................................... 5

2.1 EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC CYCLES AND POLICY CHANGES ON DI INCIDENCE RATES .................................................... 5

2.2 ASSUMED FUTURE DISABILITY INCIDENCE RATES........................................................................................................ 6

3 DISABILITY DEATH RATE ............................................................................................................ 7

4 DISABILITY RECOVERY RATE ..................................................................................................... 8

5 DISABILITY PREVALENCE RATES ............................................................................................... 9

CHART 1: EFFECT OF THE ECONOMY ON THE DI INCIDENCE RATE .................................................................................. 10

CHART 2: NEW DISABLED-WORKER AWARDS PER 1,000 EXPOSED (INCIDENCE RATE) ................................................. 11

CHART 3: MALE DISABLED-WORKER AWARDS PER 1,000 EXPOSED (INCIDENCE RATE) BY AGE GROUP .................... 12

CHART 4: FEMALE DISABLED-WORKER AWARDS PER 1,000 EXPOSED (INCIDENCE RATE) BY AGE GROUP................. 13

CHART 5: AGE-SEX-ADJUSTED COMPARISON OF SSA GENERAL POPULATION MORTALITY TO DISABLED WORKER 

MORTALITY.................................................................................................................................................................. 14

CHART 6: DISABLED-WORKER RECOVERIES PER 1,000 BENEFICIARIES.......................................................................... 15

CHART 7: DISABLED-WORKER PREVALENCE RATES THROUGH NRA (PER 1,000 INSURED POPULATION) .................... 16
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1 Overview

Each year the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) and 

Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Funds provides an annual report to the Congress on the financial 

and actuarial status of the OASDI program. The Office of the Chief Actuary (OCACT) produces 

projections of future cost and income based on three separate sets of long-range (75-year) 

assumptions for three key disability variables. The intermediate (alternative II) set of 

assumptions represents the Trustees’ best estimate for future experience, while the low cost 

(alternative I) and high cost (alternative III) sets of assumptions are more and less favorable, 

respectively, from the perspective of program cost as a percent of taxable payroll. In addition, the 

intermediate assumptions serve as the central tendency for the stochastic projections presented in 

the OASDI Trustees Report. This memorandum presents the long-range disability assumptions 

used in the 2022 annual report of the Board of Trustees (the “Trustees Report”). 

The 2021 Trustees Report, released on August 31, 2021, included the Trustees’ best 

estimates of the effects of the pandemic and recession/recovery as of May 2021. The 2022 

Trustees Report, released on June 2, 2022, includes the Trustees’ best estimates of the 

effects of the pandemic and recession/recovery as of mid-February 2022. Developments 

since then have added to the uncertainty regarding the path of the pandemic and the 

economy. Given the extraordinary level of uncertainty about the magnitude and direction 

of long-term effects, the Trustees continue to assume that the pandemic and 

recession/recovery will have no effect on the individual long-range disability assumptions

for the 2022 Trustees Report. 

 

The long-range disability assumptions are: 

• The disability incidence rates by age group and sex, 

• The disability death rates by age group and sex, and 

• The disability recovery rates by age group and sex. 

The disability incidence rates assumptions for the 2022 Trustees Report are lower for all 

alternatives than those assumed for the 2021 Trustees Report. The death and recovery rate 

assumptions are the same as those used for the 2021 Trustees Report. There are no significant 

method changes in the disability model for the 2022 Trustees Report. 

The alternative II age-sex-adjusted disability incidence rate was lowered from 5.0 in the 2021 

Trustees Report to 4.8 in the 2022 Trustees Report. Recent incidence rate data indicate a 

continued decline since the peak in 2010. Application and incidence rates are both at historic 

low levels. As a result, disability prevalence rates for men have declined to their lowest level 

since 1995 and are at a similarly low level for women. The age-sex-adjusted prevalence rate is 

currently about 36 per thousand insured and is projected to rise to over 43 per thousand by the 

end of the long-range projection period. 

Factors likely contributing to the recent declines in disability applications, awards, and 

prevalence include the changing nature of work and the greater availability of health care 

because of the Affordable Care Act. The changing nature of work allows more people with 

significant impairments to continue employment. Many companies have been expanding 
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accommodations in recent years, giving workers more flexibility including the option to 

telework. The lower disability incidence rates assumed for the 2022 Trustees Report are 

consistent with our regression model fitted over the period 1995 to 2019 using the ultimate longterm unemployment rate assumption of 4.5 percent. 

The following table shows the key disability assumptions and summary measures for the longrange projection period. 1

 

Key Disability Assumptions and Summary Measures for the Long-Range (75-year) Projection Period

2021 Trustees Report and 2022 Trustees Report

2021 Trustees Report 

Alternative 

2022 Trustees Report 

Alternative 

2022 Trustees Report 

Less 2021 Trustees 

Report 

I II III I II III I II III

Ultimate age-sex-adjusted disability 

incidence rate per 1,000 exposed 

workers

4.0 5.0 6.0 3.9 4.8 5.8 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2

Age-sex-adjusted disability death rate 

per 1,000 beneficiaries for the last 

year of the 75-year projection

22.2 12.8 6.2 21.9 12.5 6.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.0

Ultimate age-sex-adjusted disability 

recovery rate per 1,000 beneficiaries

12.5 10.4 8.3 12.5 10.4 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 

The disability incidence and recovery assumptions reach ultimate values for the tenth projection 

year and thereafter. During the first ten years of the projection period, the long-range model 

reconciles with projections from the short-range model. 

The lower ultimate disability incidence rate assumption by itself results in a 0.04 increase 

(improvement) in the long-range OASDI actuarial balance. Including recent disability data, the 

higher labor force participation rates expected because of the lower ultimate disability incidence 

rate assumption, and changes in near-term assumptions increased (improved) the actuarial 

balance by an additional 0.03 percent of payroll, for a combined total increase of 0.07 percent of 

payroll. 

The remainder of this paper provides details regarding the historical values and future values for 

each of the disability assumptions, and the basis for the assumptions. 

1 The ultimate disability death summary measures decreased slightly due to data and methodology updates. The 

disability death summary measures shown are for the last year of the 75-year projection period. For the 2021 and 

2022 Trustees Reports, the last years are 2095 and 2096, respectively. There is a small amount of mortality 

improvement reflected in the death rates between 2095 and 2096.
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2 Disability Incidence Rate

2.1 Effects of Economic Cycles and Policy Changes on DI Incidence Rates 

Disability incidence rates are the proportion of workers in a given year, insured for but not 

receiving disabled-worker benefits (exposed population), who file for and are awarded disabledworker benefits. The age-sex-adjusted historical and short-range projected alternative II 

incidence rates are shown in Chart 1. A number of specific economic and policy drivers have 

influenced disability program cost historically and will continue to have an effect on disability 

incidence. Periodic economic recessions, as indicated by the civilian unemployment rate in red 

in Chart 1, have been associated with temporary increases in disability incidence. Incidence rates 

tend to increase temporarily in bad economic times. Some individuals who gradually develop 

conditions that would qualify for DI benefits based on the severity of their medicallydeterminable impairment are able to continue work at a level in excess of substantial gainful 

activity (SGA) given the opportunity and needed assistance during a period of strong economic 

activity and demand for workers. However, with elevated unemployment rates like those seen in 

the 2007-09 recession, many of these individuals will lose employment and will seek DI 

benefits. 

The recession that began in December 2007 resulted in an increase in disability applications and 

incidence to peak levels in 2010 that were exceeded only by the peak in 1975. One apparent 

exception to the relationship between disability incidence and economic recessions is the strong 

recession of 1981-82. The effect of that recession appears to have been offset by the net effects 

of the 1980 Amendments, which: (1) sharply increased the levels of pre-effectuation review of 

disability allowances and continuing disability reviews of current beneficiaries; (2) introduced 

the extended period of eligibility to encourage work; and (3) lowered the maximum family 

benefit for DI beneficiaries.

Additional policy changes over the years had significant effects on disability incidence. Doubledigit ad-hoc benefit increases in 1970 through 1974 made disability benefits more 

attractive. The 1984 Amendments may have offset the effects of a strong economic recovery 

with increased emphasis on multiple impairments and mental listings, and the requirement to 

show medical improvement for benefit cessation. The SSI outreach to disabled adults likely 

added to the effects of the 1990-91 recession. Also, the effects of a strong economic recovery 

from 1995 to 2000 on lowering incidence rates may have been enhanced by the 1996 

Amendments, which eliminated drug addiction and alcoholism as disabling conditions. 

Incidence rates have fallen steeply since 2010, concurrent with the recovery from the 2007-09 

recession. Incidence rates have through 2021 dropped to levels well below those expected over 

the long-term, and even below the levels that would be expected from the economic recovery 

alone. Contributing factors to the decline through 2019 in disability applications and awards 

include the changing nature of jobs in the economy, the improving economy indicated by the low 

unemployment rate, the greater availability of health care because of the Affordable Care Act, 

and increasing job flexibility and accommodation by many employers in an increasingly 

competitive labor market. Incidence rates declined to an extraordinarily low level in 2019, at the 

end of an extended period of economic recovery, resulting in the lowest disability prevalence 

rate for men since 1995, and a similarly low level for women. Incidence rates dropped further to
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an all-time low in 2021 partly due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Future policy 

changes, technological advancements, and economic cycles will undoubtedly continue to cause 

fluctuations in disability incidence rates. 

2.2 Assumed Future Disability Incidence Rates 

For the 2022 Trustees Report, incidence rates under the intermediate alternative are projected to 

rise more slowly early in the projection period than in last year’s report, consistent with the low 

levels experienced recently and the lower assumed ultimate incidence rate. Incidence rates are 

projected to rise to a temporary peak level for 2027 as some of the reduced levels of applications 

in the pandemic period are realized in the next few years. After 2027, incidence rates gradually 

decline through the rest of the short-range period to the ultimate assumed level of incidence. This 

projected pattern of incidence over the next several years is based on the expectation that 

disability applications will increase to pre-pandemic levels as the COVID-19 pandemic recedes 

and the economy fully recovers from the 2020 recession. In 2031, at the end of the short-range 

period, age-sex-specific incidence rates are assumed to reach the ultimate rates assumed for the 

long-range projections. These ultimate age-sex-specific disability incidence rates were selected 

based on careful analysis of historical levels and patterns and expected future conditions, 

including the impact of scheduled increases in the normal retirement age. The ultimate incidence 

rates represent the expected average rates of incidence for the future. 

For alternative II of the 2022 Trustees Report, the Trustees assume an ultimate age-sex-adjusted 

disabled-worker incidence rate of 4.8 per thousand exposed workers. This rate was 5.0 awards 

per thousand for the 2020 and 2021 Trustees Reports, 5.2 awards per thousand for the 2019 

Trustees Report, and 5.4 awards per thousand for the 2012 through 2018 Trustees Reports. The 

4.8 ultimate incidence rate is slightly lower than the historical average experienced from 1995 

through 2021 (5.0 awards per thousand) and is 12 percent higher than the most recent ten-year 

historical average experienced from 2012 through 2021 (4.3 awards per thousand). With the 

assumed ultimate disability incidence rate above the average level over the last 10 years, the 

resulting projected disability prevalence rates will still rise to sustained levels that are higher than 

historical rates, other than the temporarily high rates that resulted from the 2007-09 recession. 

The ultimate incidence rates are calculated by age group and sex using a no-lag unemployment 

rate regression model for the years 1995-2019. Our regression model uses data beginning in 

1995 to capture recent higher levels of female disability incidence rates. For ages 60-64, rates 

are increased from the regression results to reflect the planned increase in the Social Security 

Normal Retirement Age from 66 to 67. We calculated rates for ages 65 and older using a 

weighted average of our base incidence rates and projected exposure. We further adjusted these 

rates with a 0.3 percent discount for the reinstatement of the reconsideration step of the disability 

appeals process and a 0.25 percent discount for the removal of the inability to communicate in 

English as an education category in the disability determination process. The Office of the Chief 

Actuary will continue to monitor experience closely and review the disability incidence

assumption. 

The 2011 Technical Panel suggested raising the 2011 Trustees Report ultimate alternative II 

incidence rate assumption of 5.2 to 5.8. The 2015 Technical Panel agreed with the ultimate 

alternative II incidence rate assumption of 5.4 and suggested that OCACT closely monitor 
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experience. The 2019 Technical Panel suggested lowering the disability incidence rate to 4.9, 

consistent with the Panel’s lower long-term unemployment rate assumption of 4.8 percent and 

taking into account some of the recent drop in incidence. The 2019 Panel also recommended 

continued monitoring of trends in the incidence rate (including external consultation with experts 

in the private disability industry) and linking the disability incidence rate and unemployment rate 

assumptions. 

The Congressional Budget Office raised their ultimate disability incidence rate to 5.6 for their 

2013 through 2015 Long-Term Budget Outlooks and reduced the assumption to 5.4 for their 

2016 through 2018 reports, matching the Trustees. For the 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook, 

they reduced the assumption to 5.2, again matching the Trustees. The 2020 and 2021 LongTerm Budget Outlooks do not explicitly mention the disability incidence assumption, so we 

assume it remains at 5.2.

Chart 2 shows age-adjusted historical and long-range alternative II incidence rates for men and 

women. For men, the age-adjusted incidence rate has averaged 5.0 new disability awards per 

thousand exposed workers from 1995 through 2021. The female age-adjusted incidence rate has 

averaged 4.9 from 1995 through 2021. Since 1980, the age-adjusted incidence rate for women

has increased to a level much closer to the rate for men. For the 2022 Trustees Report, the 

Trustees assume ultimate age-adjusted disability incidence rates for both men and women are 4.8 

new disability awards per thousand exposed workers. 

Chart 3 and Chart 4 show the historical and long-range alternative II incidence rates by age 

group for men and women, respectively. The table below shows the 2022 Trustees Report 

alternative II ultimate disability incidence rates by age group. 

Ultimate Disability Incidence Rates per 1,000 Exposed, 2022 Trustees Report Alternative II

Age Group

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+

Male 0.4 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.6 3.5 4.9 8.3 14.3 18.0 10.1

Female 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.8 4.1 5.6 8.9 13.8 15.3 8.6

Because the low-cost and high-cost alternative long-range disability incidence rates are 

determined by adjusting the incidence rates from the intermediate alternative down and up by 

roughly 20 percent, respectively, rates for these alternatives are not included in the charts. 

3 Disability Death Rate

Death rates are much higher for the disabled population than the general population, as seen in 

Chart 5. Base probabilities of death by duration, age, and sex (from Actuarial Study No. 125) 

are applied to the disabled-worker population. In the first year of the projection period, the death 

rate is determined by fitting an exponential curve to historical death rates for disabled workers by 

age group and sex. For the rest of the projection period, death rate improvement factors are 

applied to the base probabilities of death to reflect the same rate of improvement as the general 

population for that age group and sex. For the 2022 Trustees Report, death rates are assumed to 

remain elevated through 2023 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and then return to follow the 

underlying declining trend in general population mortality. The age-sex-adjusted death rate 
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decreases from 30.0 per thousand beneficiaries in 2021 to 12.5 per thousand for 2096 under the 

intermediate assumptions for the 2022 Trustees Report. 

The disability death rates for the low-cost and high-cost alternatives are determined by 

increasing and decreasing by 7.5 percent, respectively, the death rate in the first year of the 

projection period. Then the general population mortality improvement for that alternative is 

applied to project death rates for the remainder of the 75-year period. 

The 2011 Technical Panel recommended a more rapid decline in disability mortality rates for 

both men and women from 2020 through 2030. The 2015 Technical Panel stated that they were 

comfortable with the Trustees’ assumption. The 2019 Technical Panel did not address this 

assumption. 

4 Disability Recovery Rate 

Beneficiaries stop receiving disability benefits when they (1) die, (2) convert to a retired-worker 

benefit at normal retirement age, (3) recover from their medically-determinable disabling 

condition, or (4) return to work for an extended period. Disabled-worker beneficiaries who return 

to substantial work for an extended period are deemed to have recovered, and their benefits are 

then terminated. The recovery rate is the ratio of the number of terminations for reasons (3) and 

(4) to the average number of disabled-worker beneficiaries during the year. Base probabilities of 

recovery (from Actuarial Study No. 125) by duration, age, and sex are applied to the disabledworker population. 

Chart 6 shows age-sex-adjusted historical and projected alternative II recovery rates. The rate of 

recovery is, at times, affected by budget appropriations for continuing disability reviews, with no 

general upward or downward trend since 1985. The ultimate disability recovery rate under the 

intermediate alternative is equal to the average recovery rate by age group and sex for the years 

1985-2005, excluding 1997. The averaging period begins in 1985, after the Social Security 

Disability Benefits Reform Act of 1984 created medical improvement standards for continuing 

disability reviews. The spike in recoveries in 1997 when drug and alcohol addictions were 

eliminated as bases for disability entitlement is excluded from the calculation.

The projected age-sex-adjusted recovery rate (medical improvement and return to work) under 

the intermediate assumptions decreases from the relatively high level of 17.7 per thousand 

beneficiaries in 2021 to the ultimate level of 10.4 per thousand beneficiaries under the 

intermediate assumptions for the 2022 Trustees Report. The recovery rate has been high in recent 

years due to an ongoing administrative effort to eliminate a backlog of medical continuing 

disability reviews. For the 2022 Trustees Report, the recovery rate is expected to increase 

temporarily through 2022 as these reviews are completed and the backlog is eliminated over the 

next several years. Thereafter, the rate decreases as the backlog is reduced. 

Because the low-cost and high-cost alternative long-range disability recovery rates are 

determined by adjusting the recovery rates from the intermediate alternative up and down by 

roughly 20 percent, respectively, rates for these alternatives are not included in the chart. 
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The 2011 Technical Panel suggested reducing the ultimate alternative II recovery rate 

assumption from 10.7 to 8.7. The 2015 Technical Panel recommended reducing the ultimate 

alternative II recovery rate assumption from 10.4 to 10.1. The 2019 Technical Panel did not 

address this assumption. 

5 Disability Prevalence Rates 

The disability prevalence rate is the percentage of the disability insured population that is in 

receipt of disability benefits. Changes in prevalence rates are a direct result of changes in 

incidence rates and termination rates. Age-sex-adjusted prevalence rates have increased 

primarily because: (1) termination rates, in particular death termination rates, have declined; (2) 

incidence rates at younger ages have increased relative to rates at older ages (new beneficiaries at 

younger ages have more potential years on the disability rolls); (3) incidence rates have increased 

substantially for women to parity with men; and (4) the DI program has matured (disabled 

worker benefits became available to those over age 50 at the start of the program in 1957 and to 

younger workers in 1960, and disability insured status requirements were eased for those under 

age 31 in 1968). 

Disability prevalence rates for men rose rapidly prior to 1995 and then less rapidly through 2007, 

as the program matured. Prevalence rates increased later for women, reaching parity with the 

rates for men shortly after 2007. Age-sex-adjusted prevalence rates are now at levels below 

those seen in 2007 and are still declining, in part due to the pandemic. Prevalence rates are 

projected to grow gradually to levels above those seen in 2007 based on the assumed 

stabilization in incidence rates by age and sex at levels above those experienced over the past 10 

years. As incidence rates gradually stabilize, the declining death termination rate continues to 

have a small influence toward higher disability prevalence rates, because applying the same rate 

of reduction in death rates for the disabled as for the general population results in larger declines 

in the death rate for the disabled.

The projected age-sex-adjusted disability prevalence rate grows from 36.3 per thousand 

disability insured at the end of 2021 to 43.2 per thousand at the end of 2096. Chart 7 illustrates 

the historical and projected disabled worker prevalence rates for men and women. The female 

prevalence rate rose to the level of the male rate around 2007, and is slightly higher than the 

male rate thereafter, because the disability death and recovery rates are generally higher for men

than women. In 2096, the preliminary age-adjusted prevalence rate is 43.0 for men and 43.4 for 

women. 

The low-cost and high-cost alternative disability prevalence rates are determined using the 

disability incidence rate, disability death rate, and disability recovery rate assumptions for that 

alternative.
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Chart 1: Effect of the Economy on the DI Incidence Rate

Note: The projections reflect the Trustees’ assumptions for the 2022 Trustees Report.

Social Security Administration

Office of the Chief Actuary

June 2, 2022
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Chart 2: New Disabled-Worker Awards per 1,000 Exposed (Incidence Rate)

Age-Adjusted (2000)

Note: The projections reflect the Trustees’ assumptions for the 2022 Trustees Report. The dotted lines show the short-range assumptions for the 2022 Trustees 

Report.

Social Security Administration

Office of the Chief Actuary

June 2, 2022
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Chart 3: Male Disabled-Worker Awards per 1,000 Exposed (Incidence Rate) by Age Group

Note: The projections reflect the Trustees’ assumptions for the 2022 Trustees Report. The dotted lines show the short-range assumptions for the 2022 Trustees 

Report.

Social Security Administration

Office of the Chief Actuary

June 2, 2022
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Chart 4: Female Disabled-Worker Awards per 1,000 Exposed (Incidence Rate) by Age Group

Note: The projections reflect the Trustees’ assumptions for the 2022 Trustees Report. The dotted lines show the short-range assumptions for the 2022 Trustees 

Report.

Social Security Administration

Office of the Chief Actuary

June 2, 2022
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Chart 5: Age-Sex-Adjusted Comparison of SSA General Population Mortality to Disabled Worker Mortality

Note: The projections reflect the Trustees’ assumptions for the 2022 Trustees Report.

Social Security Administration

Office of the Chief Actuary

June 2, 2022
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Chart 6: Disabled-Worker Recoveries per 1,000 Beneficiaries

Age-Sex-Adjusted (2000)

Note: The projections reflect the Trustees’ assumptions for the 2022 Trustees Report. The dotted lines show the short-range assumptions for the 2022 Trustees 

Report.

Social Security Administration

Office of the Chief Actuary

June 2, 2022
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Chart 7: Disabled-Worker Prevalence Rates through NRA (per 1,000 Insured Population)

Age-Adjusted to the 2000 Insured Population

Note: The projections reflect the Trustees’ assumptions for the 2022 Trustees Report. The dotted lines show the short-range assumptions for the 2022 Trustees 

Report.

Social Security Administration

Office of the Chief Actuary

June 2, 2022