Social Security

Memorandum

Date: September 26, 2003

To: Representative Jim DeMint

From: Stephen C. Goss, Chief Actuary

Subject: Estimated Financial Effects of H.R. 3177, the “Social 

Security Savings Act of 2003”--INFORMATION

This memorandum presents estimates for the bill that you introduced on September 25, 

2003. Our understanding of the intent of this plan comes as a result of working with 

Chris Socha and Matt Hoskins of your staff. 

This plan would establish voluntary, progressive individual accounts for workers who are 

under age 55 on January 1, 2005 and provide for an offset against their Social Security 

retirement and aged survivor benefits. Individual account (IA) assets would be invested 

by individual workers through the Personal Savings Board (PSB) with a default

allocation 65 percent in broad indexed equity funds and 35 percent in bonds issued by the 

Federal government. Other investment options would be allowed after the IA has 

accumulated to a specified level. At least partial annuitization of the IA accumulation 

would be required at retirement. 

All individuals over age 18 but under 55 on January 1, 2005 would be automatically 

enrolled in the plan but would have 18 months to voluntarily disenroll. Individuals 

attaining age 18 after January 1, 2005 would be automatically enrolled on their eighteenth 

birthday, but would have 18 months thereafter to voluntarily disenroll. Any individual 

who voluntarily disenrolls after their initial enrollment will be allowed to reenroll one 

time in the future. Such reenrollment will be permanent, as will be an initial enrollment 

after 18 months. 

The benefit offset would be based on the amount of the full life annuity that would be 

available through the PSB at retirement assuming that the IA had always been invested 

with the default portfolio allocation (65 percent in equity). The offset would initially (for 

those attaining age 55 in 2005) be at a level of 90 percent of the available full annuity, 

providing an incentive for early participation. The offset rate would rise gradually to 

100 percent over roughly 40 years as the program matures. As the program matures and 

workers are able to make IA contributions throughout their careers, the likelihood that the 

full IA annuity would exceed the scheduled OASI benefit would increase, thus 

maintaining an incentive to participate. The ability of the Social Security trust funds to 

meet benefit obligations would be maintained through a combination of transfers from 
2

the General Fund of the Treasury and special Social Security Transition (SST) Bonds 

issued to individual accounts. 

Under the plan specifications described below the Social Security program would be 

expected to meet its benefit obligations throughout the long-range period 2003 through 

2077 and beyond. All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2003 

Trustees Report plus additional assumptions described below. 

Plan Specification 

Individual Accounts

Starting in 2005, workers at least age 18 who have not yet reached their 55th birthday as 

of January 1, 2005 will be automatically enrolled in the plan. Individuals attaining age 

18 after January 1, 2005 will be automatically enrolled on their eighteenth birthday. 

Enrollees with earnings in OASDI (Social Security) covered employment will have a 

portion of their payroll tax contribution (12.4 percent of taxable earnings in total) 

redirected from the OASDI Trust Funds to an individual account. The percentage of 

taxable earnings to be redirected will vary based on a linear, progressive scale, with 

8 percentage points redirected for a worker with $1 of earnings, and 3 percentage points 

redirected for a worker with maximum taxable earnings ($87,000 for 2003). See Table 

A attached. The progressive scale for IA contributions redirected from the OASDI Trust 

Funds is estimated to amount to about 5.1 percentage points of the 12.4 percent payroll 

tax rate on average. The total amount redirected from the OASDI contribution rate 

indicated in Table 1 is less than 5.1 percent of payroll for years through 2028, because 

workers age 55 and older at the beginning of 2005 have no IA contributions. 

All individuals will be eligible to voluntarily disenroll from the plan within 18 months

after initial enrollment. If this option is not exercised then enrollment will be permanent. 

For individuals who disenroll, all accumulated assets in their IAs will be immediately and 

permanently liquidated with the proceeds being contributed to the OASDI trust funds. 

Any individual who voluntarily disenrolls after their initial enrollment will be allowed to 

reenroll one time in the future. Such reenrollment will be permanent.

While the plan would offer the opportunity for disenrollment from the IA, initial 

enrollment will be automatic for all, the nature of the plan will provide a high likelihood 

that available retirement benefits will be more if enrollment is maintained than if 

disenrollment is selected. Total potential retirement benefits for each worker who 

maintains enrollment, retains the default portfolio allocation, and selects full 

annuitization at retirement would be guaranteed to be at least as large as benefits 

scheduled under current law for Social Security. Thus, participation is assumed to be 

universal for estimates presented in this memorandum. Individuals who disenroll would 

receive benefits scheduled under current law.

IA contributions directed to the IA of a worker based on a year’s earnings are not 

determinable until earnings are reported to and tabulated by the Social Security 

Administration. Because this reporting is made by employers on an annual basis after the 
3

end of the calendar year, amounts for individual workers are not determinable for 

somewhat over a year, on average, after the date on which earnings are paid. Under the 

proposal, IA contributions would be credited to the individual accounts as soon as current 

reporting permits, with amounts increased by the actual yield on the default portfolio 

from June 30 of the year of earnings to the point of crediting to the workers account. 

Under the plan, individual account (IA) assets, once credited, would be automatically 

invested by workers through the Personal Savings Board (PSB). IA balances would be 

maintained in the default portfolio with 65 percent in a specified broad index fund 

consisting of private equities for corporations based in the United States (such as the 

Wilshire 5000) and 35 percent in long-term bonds issued by the Federal government. 

Initially the bond portion of assets would be invested in special Social Security Transition 

(SST) Bonds. Due to the nature of the accounts, an ultimate administrative cost of 

0.25 percent of assets is assumed to be reasonable.

Once the IA balance of a worker reaches a specified threshold level, two additional 

investments are available -- a broad index of small-capitalization equities, and a broad 

index of mid-capitalization equities. IA holders who have reached the threshold will be 

able to specify any desired allocation among the four available funds. Annual changes in 

allocation would be allowed. The specified threshold level would be $5,000 for 2005, 

and would be increased using the SSA average wage indexing series thereafter (in the 

same manner by which the PIA formula bend points are indexed.) Because the benefit 

offset reflects the default option, we assume that the vast majority of account holders will 

retain the default portfolio, thus taking no risk that the total potential plan benefits will 

end up being less than if the IA enrollment had been terminated. 

IA Disbursements and Annuitization 

At retirement, the worker would have two annuitization options for IA balances. The 

first option would provide for full annuitization of all IA assets in a CPI-indexed life 

annuity administered by the PSB. The annuity would be computed at retirement based on 

an assumption of investment of 65 percent in a broad equity index and 35 percent in longterm Federal bonds, with an assumed administrative expense of 0.25 percent of assets 

each year. Assets held by the PSB would, in fact, be invested 65 percent in equities and 

35 percent in Federal bonds. The annuity would be computed using the assumed longterm future returns on equities and long-term Federal bonds as determined by the PSB at 

the time of annuitization. This PSB would assume all risk associated with guaranteeing 

this yield on life annuities, regardless of what actual investment returns turn out to be. 

The PSB would be backed by the Treasury of the United States government. Thus, the 

General Fund of the Treasury would provide the “insurance” that the full amount of the 

annuity will be paid for life regardless of actual investment returns. 

Under the second option available at retirement, 35 percent of accumulated IA assets 

would be required to be used to purchase special CPI-indexed life annuities administered 

by the PSB that would have a yield based on having all assets invested in long-term 

Federal bonds. If this annuity plus the Social Security benefit, reduced by the offset 
4

under this provision, provide a total monthly income that is less than the poverty level, 

then additional assets in the IA will be required to be annuitized in order to bring the total 

monthly payment up to the poverty level. If less than the total amount of IA assets is

annuitized, the balance of IA assets may be disbursed or held as the retired worker 

wishes. All disbursements from IAs after retirement are considered to be Social Security 

benefits for the purpose of Federal income taxation, with revenue directed to the OASI, 

DI and HI trust funds as under current law.

Upon entitlement to retirement or aged survivor benefits under the current rules of the 

OASDI program, a monthly CPI-indexed annuity amount based on either full 

annuitization or at least 35 percent of assets (at the option of the retiree) would be 

computed by the Personal Savings Board. The annuity would reflect all potential benefits 

that might be payable under the OASDI program (i.e., retired worker, spouse, child, 

widow(er), and surviving spouse benefits). Annuity calculations would be made at 

benefit entitlement based on the then-current expected long-range future yield on 

invested assets and the then-current expected future death rates for the potential 

beneficiaries. 

For individuals who die before receiving retirement (retired worker or aged spouse) 

benefits, the IA assets will be transferred to the account of the surviving spouse, if any, 

but will be allocated as needed to provide annuities for any surviving children of the 

deceased. If there are no survivors, and the worker dies before retiring, then the account 

balance goes to the worker’s estate, tax free.

 

Social Security Benefit Offset

OASI retirement and aged survivor benefits will be reduced (offset) based on the amount 

of the annuity that was available under the full-annuitization option whether this option 

was selected or not. Benefits payable to disabled workers, to their dependents, and to 

survivors other than surviving spouse beneficiaries at age 60 or older are not subject to 

offset. 

For workers age 24 and under on January 1, 2005, OASI benefits will be reduced (offset) 

$1 for each $1 of total potential annuity payment (assuming full annuitization had been 

selected). For workers age 54 on January 1, 2005, OASDI benefits will be reduced by 

$0.90 for each $1 of IA potential annuity. For workers at ages 25, 26, ... , 53 on January 

1, 2005, a linear scale of reduction will be applied, equal to $0.9967, $0.9933, ..., 

$0.9033 for each $1 of potential IA annuity, respectively.

Social Security Transition Bonds

The Social Security Transition (SST) Bonds would be issued by the OASDI Trust Funds, 

or on behalf of the Trust Funds (by the Department of the Treasury). Money invested in 

SST Bonds would be deposited in the OASDI Trust Funds. SST Bonds would be 

assigned the same interest rate that is applicable to special obligations of the Treasury 
5

newly issued to the OASDI Trust Funds, i.e., the average market yield on all marketable 

U.S. Treasury securities with a remaining duration to maturity over 4 years. 

The proportion of the non-equity assets in IAs and special annuity accounts would be 

gradually shifted from SST Bonds to marketable long-term U.S. Treasury securities, as 

quickly as possible (after transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury to the trust 

funds are no longer expected to be needed) while maintaining a non-negative cash flow 

from the Trust Funds to the General Fund of the Treasury (see Table 1c). A percentage 

would be determined annually for the amount of total IA and annuity assets that would be 

held in SST Bonds. When this percentage is lower than 35 percent, the difference would 

be invested in marketable Treasury securities. For those selecting the full-annuitization 

option, assets would be invested as are assets for individual accounts. For those selecting 

the optional partial annuitization, all assets would be initially held in SST Bonds. As the 

percentage of IA assets and full-annuity assets required to be held in SST Bonds is 

reduced below 35 percent, the percentage of assets for the partial annuity that would be 

held in SST Bonds would be reduced below 100 percent, on a proportionate basis (i.e., by 

100/35 percentage points below 100 percent for each 1-percentage-point reduction below 

35 percent). 

If tax revenue for the OASDI program is expected to be insufficient to pay program 

benefits for any year after the percentage of IA assets held in SST Bonds has been 

reduced below 35 percent, then this percentage will be increased for the following year in 

order to provide sufficient revenue for full payment of benefits, but to no higher than 35

percent of IA assets.

Personal Savings Board

The IA assets and special annuity assets (at least 35 percent of accumulated IA assets 

being required to have been annuitized) of all workers will be managed with a single 

entity, the Personal Savings Board (PSB), maintaining records and issuing periodic 

statements to account holders. The IA management would be based on the design of the 

government employee Thrift Savings Plan (TSP), with limited reporting requirements. 

Assets would be invested in bulk with large financial institutions. Through this approach 

it is assumed that IA administrative costs can be expected to be modest, ultimately 

around 0.25 percent of IA assets for each account holder. This might require some 

Federal subsidy in early years for the IA, when account balances are low and start-up 

costs are incurred.

General Fund Transfers to the Trust Funds

The OASDI Trust Funds will receive transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury as 

needed in any future year sufficient to maintain Trust Fund cash holdings at a minimum 

level equal to about one year’s estimated net OASDI cost (net of benefit reductions under 

the plan). Trust Fund cash holdings include revenue “invested” in the Trust Funds by 

IAs in the form of SST Bonds. The amount of General Fund transfer for each calendar 

year would be determined by the end of the preceding year by the Social Security 
6

Administration based on the intermediate estimates included in the Trustees most recent 

Annual Report. General Fund transfers will be required only after the portion of IA 

assets held in SST Bonds has been set at 35 percent. 

Assumptions

The guarantee that would be available for all individual-account participants who 

maintain the default portfolio allocation would assure that their total benefits will be no 

lower than if they do not exercise the option, but may well be higher. As a result, 

universal participation for eligible workers has been assumed for estimates presented in 

this memorandum.

As indicated above, estimates provided in this memorandum are based on the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report. In addition, the long-term 

ultimate average annual real yield assumed for equities is 6.5 percent. This is somewhat

lower than the historical real equity yield over the last several decades. 

A consensus is forming among economists that equity pricing as indicated by price-toearnings ratios may average somewhat higher in the long-term future than in the longterm past. This is consistent with broader access to equity markets and the belief that 

equities may be viewed as somewhat less “risky” in the future than in the past. Equity 

pricing will vary in the future as in the past. Price-to-earnings ratios were very high 

through 1999, and are now lower. The average ultimate real equity yield assumed for 

estimates in this memorandum is consistent with an average ultimate level of equity 

pricing somewhat above the average level of the past. 

The assumption for an ultimate real equity yield of 7 percent that was used by the Office 

of the Chief Actuary until 2001 was developed in 1995 with the 1994-6 Advisory 

Council. At the time, the Trustees assumption for the ultimate average real yield on longterm Treasury bonds was 2.3 percent at the time. Real yields on corporate bonds are 

believed to bear a close relationship to Treasury bond yields of similar duration. The 

2003 Trustees Report includes the assumption that the ultimate real yield on long-term 

Treasury bonds will average 3 percent, or 0.7 percentage point higher than in 1995. This 

increase in the assumed bond yield is consistent with a reduction in the perceived risk 

associated with equity investments. 

Financial Effects of the Plan

Table 1 indicates that under intermediate assumptions for the future, General-Fund 

transfers specified under the plan would be needed to keep the trust fund ratio from 

falling below 100 percent of annual expenditures starting 2021 and continuing through 

2054. While the “cash position” of the Trust Funds would be positive throughout the 

long-range period, meaning that benefits would be payable in all years, the “net assets” of 

the Trust Funds would be negative after 2015 (see Table 1a column 5) because of SST 

Bonds issued to the IAs are effectively loans to the Trust Funds. As a result, the OASDI 

actuarial balance is projected to be –1.13 percent of taxable payroll. However, the 
7

proportion of IA and annuity assets that would be held in SST bonds would be expected 

to start declining around 2061, declining from 35 percent in the initial years of the plan 

and reaching about 34.4 percent by 2077. This proportion would be expected to continue 

declining under the intermediate assumptions for some time after 2077, thus moving 

toward repaying the debt financing provided through SST bonds. Regardless of the 

eventual trend, the ability of the trust funds to pay benefits in full would be assured under 

the plan through the use of SST bonds up to 35 percent of IA assets, and through General 

Fund transfers when needed (as described above). 

Table 1a provides an analysis of the cash position of Trust Fund reserves, and of net 

OASDI Trust Fund assets. For purpose of comparison, the net OASDI Trust Fund assets 

are also shown for a theoretical Social Security program where borrowing authority is 

assumed for the Trust Funds. (The theoretical Social Security program with borrowing 

authority is presented both with and without the General Fund transfers expected under 

this plan, as shown in table 1.) 

If the individual accounts are considered as a part of a “total system”, along with the 

OASDI program, then it is reasonable to consider “total system assets”. These would be 

the sum of net OASDI trust fund assets and IA assets (columns 5 and 6 on Table 1a). 

Under the expected assumptions and assuming full annuitization of IA assets, total 

system assets are expected to be large and growing in real terms at the end of the 75-year 

projection period. 

Table 1b provides estimates of the effect on federal unified budget cash flows and 

balances under this plan and these assumptions. The effect on unified budget cash flow 

would be expected to be negative initially, but positive starting 2040. It is important to 

note that these estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2003 Trustees 

Report and thus are not consistent with estimates made by the OMB or the CBO based of 

their assumptions. 

Table 1c provides estimates of the ne t cash flow from the OASDI Trust Funds to the 

General Fund of the Treasury. Revenue transferred from the Treasury to the Trust Funds 

for the redemption of the special-issue Treasury obligations held by the Trust Funds is 

included here as a negative cash flow to the General Fund. Values in Table 1c are 

shown as a percent of taxable payroll, in current dollars, in present value dollars as of 

1/1/2003, and in constant 2003 dollars (discounted to 2003 with the projected growth in 

the CPI). For comparison purposes, net cash flow is also shown for a theoretical Social 

Security program where transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury to the OASDI 

Trust Funds are assumed to occur as needed to assure full payment of scheduled benefits 

in 2042 and later.

Table 1d provides estimates of the percentage of potential aggregate retirement benefits 

(OASI benefits plus IA annuities assuming all participate in the IA and all select full 

annuitization) that would be provided by the IA annuities. Under the assumptions stated 
8

above, this percentage would be expected to rise throughout the period, reaching 80 

percent of total benefits in 2072. As suggested by the values in tables 5 and 6, many 

beneficiaries in 2072 would be expected to be receiving all of their retirement benefits 

from the IA annuity.

Table 1e provides a comparison of total expected benefits from: (1) OASDI under 

current-law scheduled benefit formulas, (2) OASDI with benefits limited to the amount 

that is expected to be payable under current law after the trust funds are exhausted in 

2042, (3) OASDI benefits under the DeMint proposal, reflecting benefit offsets assuming 

all participate in the IA, and (4) total OASDI and IA potential benefits under the DeMint 

proposal assuming all participate and select full annuitization. Amounts for the latter 

three are also shown as a percentage of scheduled OASDI benefits under current law. 

Sensitivity Analysis

Tables 2, 3, and 4 provide analyses of the implications of realizing actual real yields on 

accounts that are one percent higher than expected (Table 2), one percent lower than 

expected (Table 3), and the same level as assumed for long-term Treasury bonds (Table 

4). Table 4 illustrates the case where either the average real yield on equities is no higher 

than on bonds, or the illustration of a risk-adjusted return on equities. In each case, the 

“expected” yield on annuitized assets is assumed to match the actual yield, on average. It 

should be noted that while average real yields for equities below average bond yields

have occurred for periods of a decade or so, the likelihood of having such a low average 

yield for a period of several decades seems extremely low. The sensitivity analysis with 

a 1-percent lower average yield for the total portfolio would be consistent with a bond 

yield as expected plus an equity yield that is about 1 1/2 percent lower than expected, or 

about 5 percent above price inflation. A rate this low should be expected to be very 

unlikely over a longer range period, like 50 to 75 years, based on historical experience. 

Thus, the likelihood that the financing of the OASDI program over the next 75 years 

would differ by as much as indicated in these sensitivity analyses is fairly low. 

Similarly, long-term average real equity yields well above 6.5 percent are also possible, 

but unlikely. Universal participation in the IA and full annuitization by all are assumed 

for these sensitivity analyses. 

Table 2 indicates the possibility of substantially smaller General Fund transfers for fewer 

years (2022 through 2040) under the plan if IA yields are above expectations. Tables 3 

and 4 indicate substantially higher transfers would be needed from the General Fund of 

the Treasury, starting 2020 and 2019, respectively, and lasting indefinitely. The 

percentage of IA and annuity assets held in SST Bonds would be expected to drop below 

21 percent by 2077 with the higher yields in Table 2, but would not be expected to be 

reduced below 35 percent for the lower yields in Tables 3 and 4. 
9

It must be noted that the uncertainties associated with equity investments, bond yields, 

and mortality improvement, as well as with a number of additional variables means that 

actual experience could vary from the illustrations provided in Tables 1, 2, 3, and 4. In 

any case, the DeMint plan would provide for adequate financing for the OASDI program 

through the provisions described above.

Expected IA Annuity Payments Relative to OASDI Benefit Levels

Methodology

For the purpose of this analysis, individuals are assumed to have taken the fullannuitization option. Values in the “Monthly Annuity” Tables 5 and 6 provide the 

expected level of a CPI-indexed, monthly life annuity from an individual account 

accumulation, expressed as a percentage of the scheduled monthly Social Security benefit 

under present law for several hypothetical cases. These estimates are indicated as 

preliminary because they may tend to overstate the level of monthly payment that can be 

provided from individual account asset accumulations somewhat. (See discussion of 

mortality below). 

For these hypothetical cases, earnings and IA contributions are assumed to begin at age 

21 (22 for steady maximum workers), or in the year 2005 if later. Contributions are 

assumed to be at the formula rate based on each worker’s earnings that are taxable under 

the OASDI program. IA contributions apply only for individuals 54 or younger at the 

beginning of 2005, so those reaching age 65 in 2015 and later are all assumed to 

participate. Individuals reaching age 65 in 2014 would not participate, but theoretical 

values for them are included in the tables in order to illustrate the limit of IA annuities at 

the oldest ages. All annuities for married couples are assumed to be joint, with the 

survivor receiving two thirds of the monthly payment that is provided while both spouses 

are alive.

Four illustrative earnings levels are included. The “scaled” low, medium, and high 

earners have earnings patterns that reflect the relative probability of work and relative 

level of earnings by age during the period 1990-99. The absolute level of earnings in 

each case was set so that the highest 35 years of wage-indexed earnings would average to 

45 percent, 100 percent, and 160 percent of the SSA average wage indexing series for the 

year prior to assumed benefit entitlement (year before age 65) for the low, medium, and 

high earnings cases, respectively. The steady maximum worker is assumed to have 

earnings equal to the SSA taxable maximum each year prior to retirement. While these 

cases are hypothetical, the PIA for the medium earner is close to the median PIA for 

retired worker beneficiaries. See Social Security Administration Actuarial Note Number 

144 for a full description of these hypothetical cases.

These two tables provide projected ratios of potential monthly life annuity from the IA 

(assuming full annuitization) to the scheduled OASDI benefit under present law, for 

single and married workers, respectively. IA assets for individuals are assumed to be 
10

invested 65 percent in stock and 35 percent in Federal long-term bonds, and account 

balances are assumed to be used to purchase a life annuity at retirement (assumed at age 

65). Four cases are illustrated in four columns of values. 

Values in the first column reflect the expected returns under the intermediate 

assumptions. These assume the expected ultimate average real yield on equities at 

6.5 percent with a net real yield on IA assets of 5.025 percent (with 65 percent in equities, 

35 percent in Federal bonds, and an administrative expense of 0.25 percent). Life 

annuities are assumed to reflect the same real yield (valuation interest rate).

The second column in these illustrations, is a case where total annual real returns on IA 

assets and annuities are assumed to be 1 percentage point higher than under the 

intermediate assumptions. This is consistent with the sensitivity analysis shown in Table 

2. To achieve this higher yield within the model, a higher percentage of the portfolio was 

indicated as being in equities, but the case is intended to illustrate the effect of a higher 

yield for any reason.

The third and fourth columns in these illustrations illustrate the implications of lower 

yields, consistent with the assumptions in Tables 3 and 4, respectively.

Table A3 provides estimated accumulated IA assets at age 65, just prior to annuitization 

for the cases described above. Estimates are provided in both current dollars and 

constant 2003 dollars.

Mortality Assumption

Mortality for the individual account annuities calculated here is assumed to be the 

average for the total U.S. population, for all income levels. In fact, if individual account 

annuities were to be provided at retirement for individual account accumulations, the 

expected mortality experience of annuitants, weighted by amount of assets to be 

annuitized, would be better (lower death rates) than for the general population. 

Individuals with lower accumulated assets due to lower lifetime earnings, or disability 

prior to retirement, tend to have higher mortality, all else being equal. Thus, the use of 

general-population mortality in these illustrations tends to understate the weighted life 

expectancy of annuitants, and overstate the size of the monthly annuity from individual 

account accumulations. 

The tendency to overstate the size of payments from annuities is much greater if these 

illustrations are used in the analysis of a voluntary plan where higher-income and 

healthier individuals would be expected to be more likely to participate in annuitization. 

Stephen C. Goss

Attachments
Table A. Individual Account Contributions for Workers in 2003

DeMint 8 % Contrib Rt: for $1, 3 % for Max

Level of IA

Annual Contribution IA

OASDI as a Contribution

Taxable Percentage in Dollar

Earnings of Earnings Amount

$1,000 7.94% $79.43

5,000 7.71% 385.63

10,000 7.43% 742.53

20,000 6.85% 1,370.11

30,000 6.28% 1,882.76

40,000 5.70% 2,280.46

50,000 5.13% 2,563.22

60,000 4.55% 2,731.03

70,000 3.98% 2,783.91

80,000 3.40% 2,721.84

87,000 (taxable maximum) 3.00% 2,610.00

15,629 (Low* = 45% of AWI) 7.10% 1,109.92

34,731 (Medium* = AWI) 6.00% 2,085.22

43,500 (1/2 taxable maximum) 5.50% 2,392.50

55,569 (High* = 160% of AWI) 4.81% 2,670.86

69,600 (MaxContrib=0.8xTMax) 4.00% 2,784.00

* Earnings levels for scaled low, medium, and high workers are

 average of best 35 years wage indexed earmings. 

OCACT/SSA September 9, 2003
Table 1 Representitive DeMint Proposal--100% IA Participation IA Cntrb 5.1 %, Ben Offset 100.0 % Ultimate

 With Ult Real TF Int Rate 3.0

 With Ult Real IA Yld Rate 5.03 Percent of Effectv Cash Flow Net Purchase Change in OASDI

 With Offset Annuity Net Yld Rate 5.03 IA Assets in OASDI to the GF of SST Bonds Contrib Rt from--

Cost Income Annual Cash TFR** SST Bonds Contrib (Tab c) by Individual IA Transfer

Year Rate* Rate Balance 1-1-yr 0n 12/31 Rate (bill cur$) Accounts*** Contrib from GF

2003 10.89 12.70 1.81 288 12.40

2004 10.82 12.69 1.88 309 12.40

2005 10.73 8.41 -2.32 330 35 8.11 -39 1.51 4.29

2006 10.65 8.16 -2.50 326 35 7.85 -44 1.64 4.55

2007 10.67 8.08 -2.58 320 35 7.77 -48 1.70 4.63

2008 10.73 8.02 -2.71 313 35 7.69 -54 1.76 4.71

2009 10.84 7.96 -2.88 304 35 7.62 -64 1.82 4.78

2010 10.99 7.91 -3.07 294 35 7.55 -75 1.88 4.85

2011 11.16 7.91 -3.25 283 35 7.51 -87 1.93 4.89

2012 11.33 7.89 -3.44 271 35 7.47 -101 1.98 4.93

2013 11.53 7.87 -3.65 257 35 7.43 -119 2.01 4.97

2014 11.74 7.86 -3.88 242 35 7.40 -139 2.05 5.00

2015 11.96 7.85 -4.11 226 35 7.37 -161 2.08 5.03

2016 12.21 7.86 -4.35 209 35 7.36 -186 2.10 5.04

2017 12.46 7.87 -4.59 190 35 7.35 -214 2.13 5.05

2018 12.72 7.88 -4.84 170 35 7.34 -244 2.15 5.06

2019 12.97 7.90 -5.07 148 35 7.33 -275 2.16 5.07

2020 13.23 7.91 -5.31 126 35 7.33 -310 2.18 5.07

2021 13.48 10.93 -2.55 103 35 10.32 -347 2.19 5.08 3.00

2022 13.71 11.45 -2.26 100 35 10.82 -384 2.19 5.08 3.50

2023 13.89 11.67 -2.22 100 35 11.02 -419 2.20 5.08 3.70

2024 14.05 11.78 -2.27 100 35 11.11 -454 2.20 5.09 3.80

2025 14.19 11.90 -2.29 100 35 11.21 -490 2.20 5.09 3.90

2026 14.30 11.92 -2.38 100 35 11.21 -524 2.19 5.09 3.90

2027 14.38 12.03 -2.35 100 35 11.31 -558 2.18 5.09 4.00

2028 14.44 12.05 -2.39 100 35 11.31 -590 2.17 5.09 4.00

2029 14.46 12.07 -2.39 100 35 11.30 -619 2.15 5.10 4.00

2030 14.43 11.98 -2.45 100 35 11.20 -645 2.13 5.10 3.90

2031 14.37 11.89 -2.48 100 35 11.10 -666 2.10 5.10 3.80

2032 14.27 11.91 -2.37 100 35 11.10 -683 2.07 5.10 3.80

2033 14.14 11.72 -2.42 100 35 10.90 -695 2.03 5.10 3.60

2034 13.97 11.53 -2.44 100 35 10.70 -701 1.99 5.10 3.40

2035 13.79 11.43 -2.36 100 35 10.60 -706 1.94 5.10 3.30

2036 13.59 11.24 -2.34 100 35 10.40 -705 1.89 5.10 3.10

2037 13.36 11.05 -2.31 100 35 10.20 -699 1.83 5.10 2.90

2038 13.10 10.86 -2.24 100 35 10.00 -687 1.77 5.10 2.70

2039 12.83 10.57 -2.26 100 35 9.70 -670 1.70 5.10 2.40

2040 12.54 10.37 -2.17 100 35 9.50 -648 1.63 5.10 2.20

2041 12.25 10.18 -2.06 100 35 9.30 -621 1.55 5.10 2.00

2042 11.94 9.99 -1.95 100 35 9.10 -589 1.46 5.10 1.80

2043 11.63 9.70 -1.93 100 35 8.80 -554 1.37 5.10 1.50

2044 11.31 9.61 -1.70 100 35 8.70 -515 1.27 5.10 1.40

2045 11.01 9.32 -1.70 100 35 8.40 -479 1.16 5.10 1.10

2046 10.74 9.23 -1.51 100 35 8.30 -445 1.06 5.10 1.00

2047 10.46 9.04 -1.42 100 35 8.10 -408 0.94 5.10 0.80

2048 10.18 8.85 -1.33 100 35 7.90 -368 0.82 5.10 0.60

2049 9.86 8.67 -1.19 100 35 7.70 -318 0.68 5.10 0.40

2050 9.55 8.58 -0.97 100 35 7.60 -269 0.53 5.10 0.30

2051 9.28 8.50 -0.79 100 35 7.50 -227 0.39 5.10 0.20

2052 9.04 8.52 -0.52 100 35 7.50 -189 0.24 5.10 0.20

2053 8.89 8.43 -0.45 100 35 7.40 -173 0.13 5.10 0.10

2054 8.75 8.40 -0.35 100 35 7.35 -162 0.03 5.10 0.05

2055 8.58 8.37 -0.21 100 35 7.30 -130 -0.08 5.10

2056 8.42 8.38 -0.03 100 35 7.30 -100 -0.18 5.10

2057 8.27 8.40 0.13 102 35 7.30 -71 -0.28 5.10

2058 8.12 8.41 0.29 103 35 7.30 -43 -0.37 5.10

2059 7.99 8.43 0.44 106 35 7.30 -16 -0.47 5.10

2060 7.87 8.44 0.57 109 35 7.30 10 -0.55 5.10

2061 7.76 8.46 0.69 113 34.99 7.30 7 -0.68 5.10

2062 7.68 8.47 0.80 116 34.98 7.30 22 -0.76 5.10

2063 7.61 8.49 0.88 120 34.96 7.30 1 -0.88 5.10

2064 7.55 8.51 0.95 123 34.94 7.30 0 -0.95 5.10

2065 7.44 8.52 1.07 127 34.91 7.30 7 -1.06 5.10

2066 7.35 8.53 1.18 131 34.87 7.30 7 -1.17 5.10

2067 7.27 8.54 1.27 135 34.83 7.30 32 -1.22 5.10

2068 7.21 8.55 1.34 139 34.78 7.30 16 -1.32 5.10

2069 7.16 8.56 1.40 143 34.73 7.30 29 -1.36 5.10

2070 7.12 8.56 1.45 147 34.68 7.30 36 -1.40 5.10

2071 7.10 8.57 1.48 151 34.63 7.30 37 -1.44 5.10

2072 7.08 8.58 1.50 154 34.58 7.30 32 -1.46 5.10

2073 7.08 8.59 1.51 158 34.53 7.30 21 -1.49 5.10

2074 7.09 8.60 1.51 161 34.48 7.30 3 -1.51 5.10

2075 7.11 8.61 1.50 163 34.44 7.30 29 -1.47 5.10

2076 7.14 8.62 1.48 166 34.40 7.30 0 -1.48 5.10

2077 7.17 8.62 1.45 168 34.37 7.30 21 -1.43 5.10

2078 7.22 8.63 1.42 170 34.35 7.30 40 -1.38 5.10

 Summarized

CostRt IncRt ActBal Change in

2003 OASDI OASDI OASDI ActBal

-2077 11.33 10.20 -1.13 0.78

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report Office of the Actuary

 With Ult TF Real Int Rate of 3.00 **Including borrowing from Ind Accts in Form of SST Bonds Social Security Administration

* Net of Benefit Offset *** Excluding reinvestment of interest in SST Bonds. September 9, 2003
Table 1 a OASDI Trust Fund under Proposal (Cash Reserve and Assets Net of Borrowing from IAs), Individual Account Assets, and Theoretical OASDI Assets

Total OASDI Net OASDI Theoretical Social Security****

Trust Fund SST Bonds Invested in the Trust Funds TF Assets Individual with Borrowing Authority;

Cash Interest Purchase Accumulated at End of Yr: Account Net OASDI TF Assets End of Yr 

Calendar Reserve* Earned (Sale) ** Value at Net of Borrowing Assets *** Without GF With GF Transfer

Year at End of Yr in Year During Year at End of Yr Through SST Bonds at End of Yr Transfer (amount for DeMint)

 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

Billions of Constant 2003 Dollars Billions of Constant 2003 Dollars

2003 1,543 0 1,543 1,543 1,543

2004 1,683 0.0 0.0 0 1,683 0 1,683 1,683

2005 1,700 2.2 70.1 72 1,628 207 1,833 1,833

2006 1,710 6.8 77.7 155 1,556 442 1,990 1,990

2007 1,719 12.0 82.5 245 1,474 700 2,154 2,154

2008 1,723 17.7 87.4 343 1,381 980 2,323 2,323

2009 1,721 23.7 92.3 449 1,272 1,282 2,493 2,493

2010 1,710 30.2 97.2 563 1,146 1,609 2,664 2,664

2011 1,690 37.1 101.9 686 1,005 1,959 2,835 2,835

2012 1,661 44.5 105.7 816 845 2,331 3,001 3,001

2013 1,620 52.3 109.5 954 666 2,725 3,161 3,161

2014 1,565 60.5 113.2 1,100 465 3,142 3,312 3,312

2015 1,495 69.1 116.7 1,254 241 3,582 3,452 3,452

2016 1,408 78.2 119.9 1,415 -7 4,043 3,579 3,579

2017 1,303 87.7 123.0 1,585 -281 4,528 3,691 3,691

2018 1,180 97.8 125.9 1,762 -583 5,035 3,786 3,786

2019 1,037 108.4 128.7 1,948 -911 5,566 3,863 3,863

2020 873 119.5 131.4 2,142 -1,269 6,120 3,921 3,921

2021 876 131.1 133.9 2,345 -1,469 6,699 3,956 4,146

2022 898 143.2 136.3 2,556 -1,658 7,303 3,971 4,389

2023 924 155.7 138.5 2,776 -1,852 7,930 3,964 4,635

2024 948 168.8 140.5 3,004 -2,056 8,583 3,936 4,877

2025 970 182.4 142.2 3,241 -2,271 9,261 3,885 5,114

2026 987 196.5 143.8 3,487 -2,500 9,963 3,813 5,342

2027 1,006 211.1 145.1 3,742 -2,736 10,691 3,718 5,568

2028 1,021 226.2 146.2 4,005 -2,984 11,443 3,601 5,783

2029 1,035 241.9 147.0 4,277 -3,242 12,221 3,461 5,991

2030 1,044 258.0 147.5 4,558 -3,515 13,024 3,300 6,185

2031 1,048 274.6 147.7 4,848 -3,800 13,851 3,119 6,365

2032 1,058 291.8 147.5 5,146 -4,088 14,702 2,917 6,540

2033 1,061 309.4 147.0 5,452 -4,392 15,578 2,696 6,697

2034 1,059 327.5 146.0 5,767 -4,709 16,478 2,457 6,835

2035 1,059 346.1 144.7 6,090 -5,031 17,400 2,200 6,962

2036 1,056 365.2 142.8 6,421 -5,365 18,345 1,925 7,071

2037 1,051 384.7 140.5 6,759 -5,708 19,311 1,634 7,163

2038 1,045 404.7 137.7 7,104 -6,059 20,298 1,326 7,237

2039 1,032 425.0 134.3 7,457 -6,425 21,305 1,001 7,285

2040 1,019 445.8 130.3 7,816 -6,796 22,330 661 7,314

2041 1,008 466.9 125.6 8,180 -7,173 23,373 303 7,322

2042 997 488.3 120.3 8,551 -7,553 24,431 -73 7,310

2043 980 510.1 114.2 8,926 -7,946 25,503 -467 7,266

2044 973 532.1 107.3 9,305 -8,333 26,587 -881 7,205

2045 956 554.3 99.7 9,688 -8,732 27,681 -1,316 7,110

2046 945 576.8 91.8 10,075 -9,130 28,785 -1,774 6,994

2047 931 599.4 83.0 10,464 -9,532 29,896 -2,255 6,849

2048 914 622.1 73.3 10,854 -9,940 31,012 -2,761 6,671

2049 895 644.9 61.1 11,244 -10,349 32,126 -3,292 6,460

2050 881 667.5 48.3 11,633 -10,751 33,236 -3,851 6,221

2051 871 690.1 35.7 12,020 -11,149 34,342 -4,440 5,954

2052 871 712.7 22.6 12,405 -11,534 35,442 -5,059 5,667

2053 867 735.2 12.7 12,791 -11,924 36,546 -5,710 5,347

2054 862 757.7 2.6 13,179 -12,317 37,654 -6,394 4,999

2055 860 780.4 -7.5 13,568 -12,708 38,766 -7,113 4,622

2056 865 803.1 -17.7 13,958 -13,093 39,881 -7,867 4,221

2057 877 825.9 -27.8 14,350 -13,473 41,000 -8,657 3,793

2058 896 848.8 -37.9 14,743 -13,847 42,122 -9,485 3,339

2059 921 871.8 -47.9 15,137 -14,216 43,250 -10,350 2,858

2060 952 894.8 -57.7 15,534 -14,582 44,381 -11,255 2,350

2061 983 917.8 -71.9 15,927 -14,944 45,519 -12,199 1,814

2062 1,018 940.8 -81.4 16,323 -15,305 46,663 -13,185 1,248

2063 1,050 963.8 -95.4 16,716 -15,666 47,814 -14,215 651

2064 1,083 986.8 -104.5 17,111 -16,028 48,973 -15,289 23

2065 1,118 1,009.8 -118.1 17,504 -16,387 50,142 -16,411 -640

2066 1,154 1,032.7 -131.5 17,896 -16,742 51,322 -17,581 -1,337

2067 1,195 1,055.6 -139.6 18,291 -17,096 52,514 -18,802 -2,070

2068 1,235 1,078.6 -152.4 18,684 -17,449 53,721 -20,076 -2,842

2069 1,278 1,101.7 -159.6 19,082 -17,804 54,944 -21,404 -3,653

2070 1,323 1,125.1 -166.3 19,485 -18,162 56,185 -22,789 -4,505

2071 1,369 1,148.7 -172.5 19,894 -18,524 57,446 -24,232 -5,400

2072 1,416 1,172.8 -178.1 20,309 -18,893 58,730 -25,736 -6,339

2073 1,463 1,197.2 -183.2 20,731 -19,268 60,038 -27,303 -7,324

2074 1,509 1,222.1 -187.8 21,162 -19,653 61,374 -28,935 -8,357

2075 1,559 1,247.6 -185.7 21,607 -20,048 62,739 -30,634 -9,439

2076 1,608 1,273.9 -189.1 22,063 -20,455 64,136 -32,402 -10,571

2077 1,660 1,301.0 -185.6 22,536 -20,875 65,568 -34,242 -11,756

2078 1,717 1,329.2 -181.4 23,027 -21,310 67,037 -36,156 -12,995

* Including cumulative amount invested by IAs in the form of SST Bonds.

** Excluding reinvestment of interest on SST Bonds.

*** Including annuity assets, assuming all annuitize fully in the 65/35 option Office of the Actuary

**** Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption Social Security Administration

 that the law is modified to permit forrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury. September 9, 2003
Table 1 b IA Contributions, OASDI Benefit Offset from IA, & Unified Budget Effect

Ave IA Cntrb 5.1 %, Benefit Offset 100.0 %, BenCut%

IA/Annuity Amount Benefit Other Change in Change Change in

Balance Contrib to IA: Offset to Changes Annual in Debt Annual

at End of % from UB OASDI Ben in OASDI UnifBudg Held by UnifBudg

 Year Year 100 Due to IA CashFlow CashFlow Public 1/ Balance

 (EOY)

 (Billions of Constant 2003$)

2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2005 206.7 198.7 0.0 0.0 -198.7 204.7 -204.7

2006 442.4 216.2 0.0 0.0 -216.2 434.0 -235.1

2007 699.7 225.3 0.0 0.0 -225.3 679.8 -258.5

2008 979.5 234.1 0.0 0.0 -234.1 942.4 -282.4

2009 1,282.3 242.5 0.0 0.0 -242.5 1,221.7 -306.8

2010 1,609.0 250.6 0.0 0.0 -250.6 1,518.0 -331.7

2011 1,959.1 257.6 0.2 0.0 -257.4 1,830.1 -356.3

2012 2,331.0 264.0 2.5 0.0 -261.6 2,155.7 -379.0

2013 2,725.4 270.4 5.2 0.0 -265.2 2,494.8 -401.9

2014 3,142.2 276.4 8.5 0.0 -267.9 2,846.7 -424.6

2015 3,581.7 282.2 12.4 0.0 -269.8 3,210.9 -447.1

2016 4,043.4 287.2 16.8 0.0 -270.4 3,586.2 -468.8

2017 4,527.5 292.1 22.0 0.0 -270.1 3,972.0 -490.3

2018 5,034.8 296.8 27.8 0.0 -269.0 4,368.2 -511.9

2019 5,565.7 301.5 34.3 0.0 -267.2 4,774.4 -533.4

2020 6,120.4 306.2 41.7 0.0 -264.5 5,190.0 -554.7

2021 6,699.3 310.8 49.9 0.0 -260.9 5,614.4 -575.6

2022 7,302.5 315.4 59.1 0.0 -256.3 6,046.9 -596.0

2023 7,930.4 320.1 69.2 0.0 -250.9 6,486.7 -615.9

2024 8,583.1 324.7 80.3 0.0 -244.4 6,933.0 -635.2

2025 9,260.6 329.3 92.3 0.0 -237.1 7,385.2 -654.1

2026 9,963.2 334.0 105.3 0.0 -228.7 7,842.3 -672.2

2027 10,690.8 338.7 119.5 0.0 -219.3 8,303.4 -689.5

2028 11,443.4 343.6 134.9 0.0 -208.7 8,767.5 -705.9

2029 12,221.0 348.5 151.6 0.0 -196.9 9,233.3 -721.2

2030 13,023.5 353.5 169.5 0.0 -183.9 9,699.8 -735.4

2031 13,850.8 358.6 188.9 0.0 -169.7 10,165.6 -748.3

2032 14,702.4 363.8 209.7 0.0 -154.1 10,629.3 -759.8

2033 15,578.2 369.1 231.9 0.0 -137.2 11,089.5 -769.7

2034 16,477.6 374.5 255.7 0.0 -118.7 11,544.4 -777.9

2035 17,400.0 379.9 279.1 0.0 -100.7 11,994.5 -786.3

2036 18,344.8 385.3 303.9 0.0 -81.4 12,438.2 -793.1

2037 19,311.2 390.8 330.0 0.0 -60.9 12,874.0 -798.1

2038 20,298.3 396.4 357.4 0.0 -39.0 13,300.4 -801.3

2039 21,305.1 402.0 386.4 0.0 -15.7 13,715.5 -802.5

2040 22,330.4 407.7 416.7 0.0 9.1 14,117.7 -801.6

2041 23,372.8 413.3 448.6 0.0 35.3 14,504.9 -798.4

2042 24,430.9 419.1 482.0 0.0 62.9 14,875.2 -792.8

2043 25,502.9 424.8 517.0 0.0 92.2 15,226.5 -784.6

2044 26,587.0 430.6 553.6 0.0 123.0 15,556.7 -773.6

2045 27,681.2 436.5 590.0 0.0 153.5 15,865.3 -761.7

2046 28,785.0 442.3 625.9 0.0 183.6 16,152.1 -748.9

2047 29,896.3 448.2 663.2 0.0 215.0 16,415.3 -733.6

2048 31,012.4 454.1 701.8 0.0 247.7 16,652.6 -715.4

2049 32,126.1 460.1 745.4 0.0 285.3 16,858.3 -690.8

2050 33,235.8 466.2 789.0 0.0 322.8 17,031.6 -664.3

2051 34,341.6 472.2 830.8 0.0 358.6 17,173.2 -637.7

2052 35,442.1 478.4 872.4 0.0 394.0 17,282.6 -609.6

2053 36,546.5 484.7 905.3 0.0 420.6 17,367.8 -588.6

2054 37,654.4 491.0 937.4 0.0 446.4 17,429.0 -567.1

2055 38,765.9 497.4 974.1 0.0 476.7 17,460.9 -539.5

2056 39,881.0 504.0 1,010.2 0.0 506.2 17,463.4 -511.0

2057 40,999.7 510.6 1,045.6 0.0 535.0 17,436.3 -481.5

2058 42,122.5 517.4 1,080.2 0.0 562.8 17,379.6 -451.2

2059 43,249.5 524.2 1,113.9 0.0 589.7 17,293.6 -420.2

2060 44,381.5 531.1 1,146.7 0.0 615.6 17,178.4 -388.5

2061 45,518.9 538.1 1,178.4 0.0 640.3 17,034.3 -356.2

2062 46,662.6 545.2 1,209.0 0.0 663.8 16,861.5 -323.4

2063 47,813.5 552.3 1,238.4 0.0 686.1 16,660.7 -290.3

2064 48,972.8 559.6 1,266.6 0.0 707.0 16,432.3 -256.8

2065 50,141.7 566.9 1,301.8 0.0 734.9 16,168.3 -214.6

2066 51,321.6 574.3 1,336.2 0.0 761.9 15,868.6 -171.2

2067 52,514.0 581.7 1,369.6 0.0 787.8 15,533.2 -126.8

2068 53,720.8 589.3 1,402.0 0.0 812.7 15,162.1 -81.3

2069 54,943.8 596.9 1,433.5 0.0 836.6 14,755.2 -34.8

2070 56,184.9 604.6 1,464.0 0.0 859.4 14,312.7 12.7

2071 57,446.2 612.4 1,493.5 0.0 881.1 13,834.6 61.3

2072 58,729.9 620.2 1,522.0 0.0 901.7 13,320.8 110.8

2073 60,038.5 628.2 1,549.5 0.0 921.3 12,771.5 161.4

2074 61,374.1 636.2 1,576.1 0.0 939.9 12,186.5 213.0

2075 62,739.2 644.3 1,601.8 0.0 957.5 11,565.8 265.7

2076 64,136.4 652.5 1,626.7 0.0 974.2 10,909.3 319.6

2077 65,568.1 660.7 1,650.9 0.0 990.1 10,216.8 374.8

2078 67,036.8 669.2 1,674.4 0.0 1,005.3 9,487.8 431.4

1/ Including SST Bonds

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report

 With Ult TF Real Int Rate of 3.0 Ultimate Real Yield Rate of IA 5.025

Office of the Actuary Offset Annuity Yield Rate 5.025

Social Security Administration

 September 9, 2003
Table 1 c OASDI Cash Flow to General Fund of the Treasury---DeMint Proposal vs. Theoretical OASDI

In Billions of Dollars

DeMint Proposal Theoretical Social Security with PAYGO Transfers

Net Amount of Cash-Flow from the OASDI Net Amount of Cash-Flow from the OASDI 

Trust Funds to the General Fund of the Trust Funds to the General Fund of the

 Treasury During the Year 1/ Treasury During the Year 1/

% of Billions of Dollars --- % of Billions of Dollars ---

Pyrl Current $ PV Jan 1, 03 Const 2003$ Pyrl Current $ PV Jan 1, 03 Const 2003$

2003 1.8 78 76 78 1.8 78 76 78

2004 1.8 84 77 82 1.8 84 77 82

2005 -0.8 -40 -34 -38 2.0 95 82 91

2006 -0.9 -46 -37 -42 2.0 104 84 96

2007 -0.9 -48 -37 -43 2.0 111 85 100

2008 -1.0 -55 -40 -48 2.0 113 82 99

2009 -1.1 -65 -44 -55 1.9 113 77 96

2010 -1.2 -76 -48 -62 1.8 111 71 91

2011 -1.3 -87 -52 -70 1.6 108 65 86

2012 -1.5 -102 -57 -79 1.4 100 56 77

2013 -1.6 -119 -63 -89 1.2 88 47 66

2014 -1.8 -139 -70 -101 1.0 73 37 53

2015 -2.0 -161 -76 -114 0.7 55 26 39

2016 -2.2 -186 -83 -128 0.4 33 15 23

2017 -2.5 -214 -90 -143 0.1 7 3 4

2018 -2.7 -244 -97 -158 -0.3 -23 -9 -15

2019 -2.9 -276 -103 -173 -0.6 -56 -21 -35

2020 -3.1 -310 -109 -190 -0.9 -92 -33 -56

2021 -3.4 -348 -115 -206 -1.3 -133 -44 -79

2022 -3.6 -385 -120 -221 -1.6 -176 -55 -101

2023 -3.7 -419 -124 -235 -1.9 -218 -64 -122

2024 -3.9 -455 -126 -247 -2.2 -263 -73 -143

2025 -4.0 -490 -128 -258 -2.5 -310 -81 -163

2026 -4.1 -524 -129 -268 -2.8 -358 -88 -183

2027 -4.2 -558 -130 -277 -3.1 -409 -95 -203

2028 -4.2 -591 -129 -285 -3.3 -461 -101 -222

2029 -4.2 -620 -128 -290 -3.5 -513 -106 -240

2030 -4.2 -645 -126 -293 -3.7 -565 -110 -257

2031 -4.2 -667 -122 -294 -3.9 -617 -113 -272

2032 -4.1 -684 -118 -293 -4.0 -669 -116 -286

2033 -4.0 -695 -113 -289 -4.1 -719 -117 -299

2034 -3.9 -701 -108 -283 -4.2 -770 -118 -311

2035 -3.7 -706 -102 -277 -4.3 -819 -119 -321

2036 -3.6 -706 -96 -269 -4.4 -869 -119 -331

2037 -3.4 -700 -90 -259 -4.4 -917 -118 -339

2038 -3.2 -688 -83 -247 -4.5 -966 -117 -347

2039 -3.0 -671 -77 -234 -4.5 -1,015 -116 -353

2040 -2.7 -648 -70 -219 -4.5 -1,065 -115 -360

2041 -2.5 -621 -63 -204 -4.5 -1,117 -113 -367

2042 -2.3 -590 -57 -188 -4.5 -1,171 -112 -373

2043 -2.1 -555 -50 -172 -4.6 -1,230 -111 -381

2044 -1.8 -516 -44 -155 -4.6 -1,292 -110 -388

2045 -1.6 -480 -38 -140 -4.6 -1,360 -109 -397

2046 -1.5 -445 -34 -126 -4.7 -1,433 -108 -406

2047 -1.3 -408 -29 -112 -4.7 -1,510 -108 -415

2048 -1.1 -369 -25 -98 -4.8 -1,593 -107 -425

2049 -0.9 -319 -20 -83 -4.8 -1,681 -106 -436

2050 -0.7 -270 -16 -68 -4.9 -1,776 -106 -447

2051 -0.6 -228 -13 -56 -5.0 -1,878 -106 -459

2052 -0.5 -190 -10 -45 -5.0 -1,989 -105 -472

2053 -0.4 -174 -9 -40 -5.1 -2,105 -105 -485

2054 -0.4 -163 -8 -36 -5.2 -2,227 -105 -498

2055 -0.3 -131 -6 -28 -5.2 -2,356 -105 -511

2056 -0.2 -101 -4 -21 -5.3 -2,490 -104 -525

2057 -0.1 -73 -3 -15 -5.4 -2,630 -104 -538

2058 -0.1 -44 -2 -9 -5.4 -2,775 -103 -551

2059 0.0 -17 -1 -3 -5.5 -2,924 -103 -564

2060 0.0 8 0 2 -5.5 -3,079 -102 -577

2061 0.0 6 0 1 -5.6 -3,240 -101 -589

2062 0.0 20 1 4 -5.6 -3,411 -100 -602

2063 0.0 0 0 0 -5.7 -3,592 -99 -616

2064 0.0 -2 0 0 -5.7 -3,782 -99 -629

2065 0.0 5 0 1 -5.8 -3,984 -98 -644

2066 0.0 6 0 1 -5.8 -4,196 -97 -658

2067 0.0 30 1 5 -5.9 -4,422 -97 -673

2068 0.0 14 0 2 -6.0 -4,660 -96 -689

2069 0.0 27 1 4 -6.0 -4,910 -95 -705

2070 0.0 34 1 5 -6.1 -5,175 -95 -721

2071 0.0 35 1 5 -6.1 -5,453 -94 -738

2072 0.0 30 0 4 -6.2 -5,745 -93 -755

2073 0.0 18 0 2 -6.3 -6,051 -93 -772

2074 0.0 0 0 0 -6.3 -6,373 -92 -789

2075 0.0 26 0 3 -6.4 -6,711 -91 -807

2076 0.0 -3 0 0 -6.4 -7,065 -91 -825

2077 0.0 19 0 2 -6.5 -7,435 -90 -842

2078 0.0 38 0 4 -6.6 -7,825 -89 -861

Total 2003-77 -3,549 -4,922

1/ Equals net investment in special Treasury Bonds by the 

 Trust Funds less the Amount of General Fund transfers Office of the Actuary

 specified in the proposal (DeMint) or in the theoretical Social Security Administration

 plan (PAYGO Transfers). September 9, 2003
Table 1 d Percent of Potential Retirement Benefits from Potential IA Annuity (Full Annuitization)

Expected Expected

Net Benefits Total Total Percentage

from OASI Payments Retirement of Total

Year Trust Fund from IA Payments from IA

Billions of Constant 2003 Dollars

2004 403.7 0.0 403.7 0.0

2005 409.5 0.0 409.5 0.0

2006 416.8 0.0 416.8 0.0

2007 426.0 0.0 426.0 0.0

2008 437.4 0.0 437.4 0.0

2009 450.2 0.0 450.2 0.0

2010 464.8 0.0 464.8 0.0

2011 481.0 0.2 481.1 0.0

2012 496.3 2.5 498.7 0.5

2013 514.7 5.2 519.9 1.0

2014 533.8 8.5 542.3 1.6

2015 553.5 12.4 565.9 2.2

2016 574.6 16.8 591.5 2.8

2017 596.7 22.0 618.6 3.5

2018 619.4 27.8 647.2 4.3

2019 642.0 34.3 676.3 5.1

2020 665.5 41.7 707.2 5.9

2021 689.0 49.9 738.9 6.8

2022 710.3 59.1 769.4 7.7

2023 728.9 69.2 798.1 8.7

2024 746.6 80.3 826.9 9.7

2025 763.4 92.6 856.0 10.8

2026 778.8 105.9 884.7 12.0

2027 794.1 120.6 914.7 13.2

2028 809.0 136.5 945.4 14.4

2029 821.8 153.7 975.4 15.8

2030 832.1 172.3 1,004.5 17.2

2031 840.0 192.5 1,032.4 18.6

2032 845.2 214.1 1,059.3 20.2

2033 847.5 237.4 1,084.9 21.9

2034 846.9 262.4 1,109.2 23.7

2035 845.5 289.1 1,134.5 25.5

2036 841.6 317.6 1,159.1 27.4

2037 835.3 348.0 1,183.2 29.4

2038 826.6 380.3 1,207.0 31.5

2039 815.9 414.7 1,230.6 33.7

2040 803.3 451.2 1,254.5 36.0

2041 789.0 490.0 1,279.0 38.3

2042 773.5 531.0 1,304.5 40.7

2043 756.7 574.5 1,331.1 43.2

2044 738.8 620.4 1,359.2 45.6

2045 721.9 669.0 1,390.9 48.1

2046 706.4 718.4 1,424.7 50.4

2047 690.4 770.4 1,460.8 52.7

2048 673.7 825.5 1,499.2 55.1

2049 653.1 887.6 1,540.8 57.6

2050 633.5 951.4 1,584.9 60.0

2051 616.7 1,014.8 1,631.5 62.2

2052 601.2 1,079.4 1,680.6 64.2

2053 594.6 1,135.2 1,729.8 65.6

2054 589.4 1,191.4 1,780.8 66.9

2055 580.2 1,248.0 1,828.2 68.3

2056 572.2 1,304.8 1,877.0 69.5

2057 565.4 1,361.8 1,927.2 70.7

2058 559.2 1,418.7 1,978.0 71.7

2059 553.6 1,475.6 2,029.2 72.7

2060 548.8 1,532.3 2,081.1 73.6

2061 544.8 1,588.7 2,133.5 74.5

2062 542.4 1,644.7 2,187.1 75.2

2063 541.6 1,700.2 2,241.8 75.8

2064 542.1 1,755.0 2,297.2 76.4

2065 536.1 1,809.1 2,345.2 77.1

2066 531.5 1,862.4 2,393.9 77.8

2067 528.8 1,914.8 2,443.6 78.4

2068 528.0 1,966.2 2,494.2 78.8

2069 528.6 2,016.6 2,545.2 79.2

2070 530.8 2,065.9 2,596.6 79.6

2071 534.4 2,114.2 2,648.5 79.8

2072 539.4 2,161.4 2,700.8 80.0

2073 545.9 2,207.5 2,753.4 80.2

2074 553.7 2,252.7 2,806.4 80.3

2075 562.9 2,296.9 2,859.8 80.3

2076 573.3 2,340.3 2,913.6 80.3

2077 584.9 2,382.9 2,967.8 80.3

2078 597.6 2,424.9 3,022.5 80.2

Office of the Actuary

Social Security Administration

 September 9, 2003
Table 1 e Comparison of Total Expected Plan Payments under Present Law and DeMint Proposal Expected Payments 

As % of Scheduled PL OASDI Benefits

Scheduled* PL OASDI Expected Benefits Payable PL OASDI Expected Benefits Payable

Total OASDI Benefits under DeMint Proposal*** Benefits under DeMint Proposal***

Calendar Benefits under Expected to from OASDI total with IA Expected to from OASDI total with IA

Year PresentLaw Be Payable** Trust Funds annuity  Be Payable**  Trust Funds annuity****

Billions of Constant 2003 Dollars Percent

2003 471 471 471 471 100 100 100

2004 480 480 480 480 100 100 100

2005 489 489 489 489 100 100 100

2006 499 499 499 499 100 100 100

2007 511 511 511 511 100 100 100

2008 526 526 526 526 100 100 100

2009 543 543 543 543 100 100 100

2010 561 561 561 561 100 100 100

2011 580 580 580 580 100 100 100

2012 601 601 599 601 100 100 100

2013 625 625 620 625 100 99 100

2014 650 650 641 650 100 99 100

2015 676 676 664 677 100 98 100

2016 704 704 688 705 100 98 100

2017 734 734 713 736 100 97 100

2018 766 766 738 768 100 96 100

2019 798 798 764 800 100 96 100

2020 832 832 790 834 100 95 100

2021 867 867 817 870 100 94 100

2022 902 902 843 905 100 93 100

2023 935 935 866 939 100 93 100

2024 969 969 888 973 100 92 100

2025 1,002 1,002 910 1,007 100 91 100

2026 1,035 1,035 929 1,040 100 90 101

2027 1,068 1,068 948 1,075 100 89 101

2028 1,100 1,100 965 1,108 100 88 101

2029 1,132 1,132 980 1,141 100 87 101

2030 1,162 1,162 993 1,173 100 85 101

2031 1,192 1,192 1,003 1,204 100 84 101

2032 1,220 1,220 1,010 1,235 100 83 101

2033 1,247 1,247 1,015 1,264 100 81 101

2034 1,273 1,273 1,018 1,292 100 80 101

2035 1,298 1,298 1,019 1,321 100 79 102

2036 1,322 1,322 1,019 1,350 100 77 102

2037 1,346 1,346 1,016 1,379 100 75 102

2038 1,368 1,368 1,011 1,408 100 74 103

2039 1,390 1,390 1,004 1,436 100 72 103

2040 1,412 1,412 995 1,465 100 70 104

2041 1,433 1,433 985 1,495 100 69 104

2042 1,456 1,371 973 1,527 94 67 105

2043 1,478 1,078 961 1,559 73 65 105

2044 1,501 1,093 948 1,593 73 63 106

2045 1,525 1,108 935 1,631 73 61 107

2046 1,550 1,124 924 1,671 72 60 108

2047 1,575 1,139 912 1,713 72 58 109

2048 1,601 1,154 899 1,756 72 56 110

2049 1,628 1,170 882 1,804 72 54 111

2050 1,655 1,185 866 1,853 72 52 112

2051 1,684 1,201 853 1,905 71 51 113

2052 1,713 1,217 841 1,960 71 49 114

2053 1,743 1,233 838 2,014 71 48 116

2054 1,774 1,250 836 2,069 70 47 117

2055 1,804 1,266 830 2,121 70 46 118

2056 1,836 1,283 825 2,174 70 45 118

2057 1,867 1,300 821 2,228 70 44 119

2058 1,898 1,318 818 2,282 69 43 120

2059 1,929 1,335 815 2,337 69 42 121

2060 1,961 1,353 814 2,392 69 42 122

2061 1,992 1,371 813 2,449 69 41 123

2062 2,024 1,390 815 2,506 69 40 124

2063 2,057 1,408 818 2,565 68 40 125

2064 2,090 1,427 823 2,625 68 39 126

2065 2,124 1,446 822 2,677 68 39 126

2066 2,158 1,465 822 2,730 68 38 127

2067 2,193 1,484 824 2,784 68 38 127

2068 2,229 1,503 827 2,838 67 37 127

2069 2,266 1,523 832 2,893 67 37 128

2070 2,303 1,543 839 2,948 67 36 128

2071 2,340 1,563 847 3,003 67 36 128

2072 2,378 1,583 856 3,059 67 36 129

2073 2,417 1,603 867 3,115 66 36 129

2074 2,456 1,624 880 3,171 66 36 129

2075 2,495 1,645 894 3,227 66 36 129

2076 2,535 1,666 909 3,284 66 36 130

2077 2,576 1,687 925 3,341 65 36 130

2078 2,616 1,709 942 3,399 65 36 130

* Based on benefit formulas in the law, without regard to adequacy of financing.

** Assuming that benefits would be reduced as needed starting in 2042. Office of the Actuary

*** Amount from Trust funds is net of benefit offset under the proposal. Social Security Administration

 IA annuity includes value of lump-sum distribution at retirement September 9, 2003
Table 2 DeMint: Sensitivity Analysis -- IA/Annuity Yields 1% Above Expected IA Cntrb 5.1 %, Ben Offset 100.0 % Ultimate

 With Ult Real TF Int Rate 3.0

 With Ult Real IA Yld Rate 6.03 Percent of Effectv Cash Flow Net Purchase Change in OASDI

 With Offset Annuity Net Yld Rate 6.03 IA Assets in OASDI to the GF of SST Bonds Contrib Rt from--

Cost Income Annual Cash TFR**  SST Bonds Contrib (Tab c) by Individual IA Transfer

Year Rate* Rate Balance 1-1-yr 0n 12/31 Rate (bill cur$) Accounts*** Contrib from GF

2003 10.89 12.70 1.81 288 12.40

2004 10.82 12.69 1.88 309 12.40

2005 10.73 8.41 -2.32 330 35 8.11 -39 1.52 4.29

2006 10.65 8.16 -2.50 326 35 7.85 -43 1.66 4.55

2007 10.67 8.08 -2.58 320 35 7.77 -46 1.74 4.63

2008 10.73 8.02 -2.71 314 35 7.69 -51 1.82 4.71

2009 10.84 7.96 -2.88 305 35 7.62 -59 1.90 4.78

2010 10.99 7.91 -3.07 296 35 7.55 -69 1.98 4.85

2011 11.16 7.91 -3.25 285 35 7.51 -79 2.06 4.89

2012 11.33 7.89 -3.44 275 35 7.47 -91 2.12 4.93

2013 11.52 7.87 -3.65 262 35 7.43 -106 2.18 4.97

2014 11.73 7.86 -3.87 249 35 7.40 -123 2.24 5.00

2015 11.95 7.85 -4.09 235 35 7.37 -142 2.30 5.03

2016 12.19 7.86 -4.33 219 35 7.36 -163 2.35 5.04

2017 12.43 7.87 -4.56 202 35 7.35 -187 2.41 5.05

2018 12.68 7.88 -4.80 185 35 7.34 -212 2.45 5.06

2019 12.92 7.90 -5.02 166 35 7.33 -238 2.50 5.07

2020 13.16 7.91 -5.24 147 35 7.33 -267 2.55 5.07

2021 13.40 7.93 -5.46 126 35 7.32 -297 2.59 5.08

2022 13.60 10.05 -3.55 106 35 9.42 -326 2.63 5.08 2.10

2023 13.75 11.07 -2.69 100 35 10.42 -351 2.66 5.08 3.10

2024 13.88 11.08 -2.80 100 35 10.41 -376 2.70 5.09 3.10

2025 14.00 11.10 -2.90 100 35 10.41 -401 2.73 5.09 3.10

2026 14.08 11.12 -2.96 100 35 10.41 -423 2.76 5.09 3.10

2027 14.13 11.13 -3.00 100 35 10.41 -444 2.78 5.09 3.10

2028 14.15 11.15 -3.00 100 35 10.41 -462 2.80 5.09 3.10

2029 14.13 10.97 -3.16 100 35 10.20 -475 2.81 5.10 2.90

2030 14.07 10.88 -3.18 100 35 10.10 -483 2.82 5.10 2.80

2031 13.96 10.80 -3.16 100 35 10.00 -485 2.82 5.10 2.70

2032 13.81 10.61 -3.20 100 35 9.80 -480 2.82 5.10 2.50

2033 13.62 10.32 -3.30 100 35 9.50 -468 2.81 5.10 2.20

2034 13.40 10.13 -3.26 100 35 9.30 -448 2.80 5.10 2.00

2035 13.17 9.94 -3.23 100 35 9.10 -428 2.77 5.10 1.80

2036 12.92 9.66 -3.26 100 35 8.80 -400 2.75 5.10 1.50

2037 12.63 9.47 -3.17 100 35 8.60 -364 2.71 5.10 1.30

2038 12.33 9.08 -3.25 100 35 8.20 -321 2.67 5.10 0.90

2039 12.00 8.89 -3.11 100 35 8.00 -270 2.61 5.10 0.70

2040 11.65 8.50 -3.15 100 35 7.60 -213 2.55 5.10 0.30

2041 11.30 8.21 -3.08 100 35 7.30 -148 2.48 5.10

2042 10.93 8.22 -2.71 100 35 7.30 -78 2.40 5.10

2043 10.56 8.24 -2.32 102 35 7.30 -1 2.31 5.10

2044 10.18 8.25 -1.93 108 34.93 7.30 7 1.95 5.10

2045 9.82 8.27 -1.54 114 34.79 7.30 3 1.55 5.10

2046 9.48 8.29 -1.19 120 34.60 7.30 8 1.21 5.10

2047 9.14 8.31 -0.83 127 34.36 7.30 6 0.85 5.10

2048 8.80 8.33 -0.46 135 34.08 7.30 12 0.50 5.10

2049 8.41 8.36 -0.05 144 33.75 7.30 5 0.06 5.10

2050 8.04 8.39 0.35 153 33.38 7.30 1 -0.35 5.10

2051 7.72 8.42 0.70 163 32.99 7.30 13 -0.67 5.10

2052 7.42 8.45 1.03 172 32.58 7.30 14 -0.99 5.10

2053 7.26 8.48 1.21 180 32.17 7.30 19 -1.17 5.10

2054 7.13 8.51 1.38 187 31.76 7.30 15 -1.34 5.10

2055 6.91 8.53 1.63 197 31.33 7.30 8 -1.61 5.10

2056 6.70 8.56 1.86 207 30.89 7.30 16 -1.83 5.10

2057 6.51 8.59 2.08 217 30.44 7.30 19 -2.04 5.10

2058 6.34 8.62 2.28 227 30.00 7.30 71 -2.14 5.10

2059 6.18 8.65 2.46 239 29.53 7.30 9 -2.45 5.10

2060 6.04 8.67 2.63 249 29.06 7.30 23 -2.59 5.10

2061 5.93 8.70 2.78 259 28.59 7.30 32 -2.72 5.10

2062 5.84 8.73 2.90 269 28.12 7.30 31 -2.85 5.10

2063 5.77 8.76 2.99 278 27.65 7.30 19 -2.96 5.10

2064 5.73 8.79 3.06 285 27.19 7.30 34 -3.01 5.10

2065 5.57 8.81 3.24 299 26.71 7.30 11 -3.23 5.10

2066 5.43 8.83 3.40 313 26.22 7.30 18 -3.38 5.10

2067 5.31 8.85 3.54 326 25.72 7.30 16 -3.52 5.10

2068 5.20 8.86 3.66 338 25.21 7.30 3 -3.66 5.10

2069 5.12 8.88 3.76 350 24.70 7.30 30 -3.72 5.10

2070 5.06 8.90 3.84 361 24.19 7.30 50 -3.78 5.10

2071 5.01 8.91 3.90 372 23.67 7.30 6 -3.89 5.10

2072 4.99 8.93 3.94 380 23.15 7.30 6 -3.94 5.10

2073 4.97 8.95 3.97 388 22.64 7.30 60 -3.91 5.10

2074 4.98 8.96 3.98 396 22.13 7.30 44 -3.94 5.10

2075 4.99 8.97 3.98 402 21.62 7.30 16 -3.97 5.10

2076 5.02 8.99 3.96 407 21.12 7.30 51 -3.92 5.10

2077 5.06 9.00 3.94 412 20.62 7.30 4 -3.93 5.10

2078 5.11 9.01 3.90 415 20.13 7.30 25 -3.88 5.10

 Summarized

CostRt IncRt ActBal Change in

2003 OASDI OASDI OASDI ActBal

-2077 10.61 9.74 -0.87 1.04

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report Office of the Actuary

 With Ult TF Real Int Rate of 3.00 **Including borrowing from Ind Accts in Form of SST Bonds Social Security Administration

* Net of Benefit Offset *** Excluding reinvestment of interest in SST Bonds. September 9, 2003
Table 3 DeMint: Sensitivity Analysis -- IA/Annuity Yields 1% Below Expected IA Cntrb 5.1 %, Ben Offset 100.0 % Ultimate

 With Ult Real TF Int Rate 3.0

 With Ult Real IA Yld Rate 4.03 Percent of Effectv Cash Flow Net Purchase Change in OASDI

 With Offset Annuity Net Yld Rate 4.03 IA Assets in OASDI to the GF of SST Bonds Contrib Rt from--

Cost Income Annual Cash TFR** SST Bonds Contrib (Tab c) by Individual IA Transfer

Year Rate* Rate Balance 1-1-yr 0n 12/31 Rate (bill cur$) Accounts*** Contrib from GF

2003 10.89 12.70 1.81 288 12.40

2004 10.82 12.69 1.88 309 12.40

2005 10.73 8.41 -2.32 330 35 8.11 -40 1.51 4.29

2006 10.65 8.16 -2.50 326 35 7.85 -46 1.61 4.55

2007 10.67 8.08 -2.58 320 35 7.77 -50 1.66 4.63

2008 10.73 8.02 -2.71 312 35 7.69 -57 1.70 4.71

2009 10.84 7.96 -2.88 303 35 7.62 -68 1.74 4.78

2010 10.99 7.91 -3.07 292 35 7.55 -81 1.79 4.85

2011 11.16 7.91 -3.25 280 35 7.51 -94 1.82 4.89

2012 11.33 7.89 -3.44 267 35 7.47 -111 1.84 4.93

2013 11.53 7.87 -3.66 252 35 7.43 -131 1.86 4.97

2014 11.75 7.86 -3.88 236 35 7.40 -153 1.87 5.00

2015 11.97 7.85 -4.12 218 35 7.37 -178 1.88 5.03

2016 12.23 7.86 -4.37 199 35 7.36 -206 1.88 5.04

2017 12.49 7.87 -4.62 178 35 7.35 -238 1.88 5.05

2018 12.76 7.88 -4.88 156 35 7.34 -272 1.87 5.06

2019 13.02 7.90 -5.12 132 35 7.33 -308 1.87 5.07

2020 13.29 10.51 -2.78 107 35 9.93 -348 1.86 5.07 2.60

2021 13.56 11.73 -1.83 100 35 11.12 -391 1.84 5.08 3.80

2022 13.81 11.95 -1.86 100 35 11.32 -435 1.83 5.08 4.00

2023 14.01 12.17 -1.84 100 35 11.52 -477 1.81 5.08 4.20

2024 14.19 12.38 -1.81 100 35 11.71 -520 1.79 5.09 4.40

2025 14.36 12.50 -1.86 100 35 11.81 -565 1.76 5.09 4.50

2026 14.49 12.62 -1.88 100 35 11.91 -608 1.73 5.09 4.60

2027 14.61 12.73 -1.88 100 35 12.01 -653 1.70 5.09 4.70

2028 14.70 12.85 -1.85 100 35 12.11 -697 1.66 5.09 4.80

2029 14.76 12.97 -1.79 100 35 12.20 -740 1.63 5.10 4.90

2030 14.77 12.98 -1.79 100 35 12.20 -780 1.58 5.10 4.90

2031 14.76 12.89 -1.86 100 35 12.10 -817 1.54 5.10 4.80

2032 14.71 12.80 -1.90 100 35 12.00 -851 1.49 5.10 4.70

2033 14.62 12.91 -1.71 100 35 12.10 -882 1.44 5.10 4.80

2034 14.51 12.72 -1.79 100 35 11.90 -909 1.38 5.10 4.60

2035 14.38 12.63 -1.75 100 35 11.80 -935 1.33 5.10 4.50

2036 14.22 12.54 -1.68 100 35 11.70 -956 1.27 5.10 4.40

2037 14.04 12.44 -1.60 100 35 11.60 -974 1.20 5.10 4.30

2038 13.84 12.35 -1.49 100 35 11.50 -987 1.13 5.10 4.20

2039 13.62 12.06 -1.57 100 35 11.20 -997 1.06 5.10 3.90

2040 13.39 11.86 -1.53 100 35 11.00 -1,003 0.99 5.10 3.70

2041 13.15 11.86 -1.29 100 35 11.00 -1,007 0.91 5.10 3.70

2042 12.91 11.57 -1.34 100 35 10.70 -1,008 0.83 5.10 3.40

2043 12.66 11.47 -1.18 100 35 10.60 -1,007 0.74 5.10 3.30

2044 12.41 11.28 -1.13 100 35 10.40 -1,005 0.65 5.10 3.10

2045 12.17 11.19 -0.98 100 35 10.30 -1,005 0.56 5.10 3.00

2046 11.95 11.09 -0.86 100 35 10.20 -1,008 0.47 5.10 2.90

2047 11.73 10.90 -0.83 100 35 10.00 -1,009 0.37 5.10 2.70

2048 11.50 10.81 -0.70 100 35 9.90 -1,009 0.27 5.10 2.60

2049 11.25 10.62 -0.63 100 35 9.70 -1,001 0.15 5.10 2.40

2050 11.01 10.52 -0.48 100 35 9.60 -995 0.04 5.10 2.30

2051 10.79 10.53 -0.26 100 35 9.60 -995 -0.07 5.10 2.30

2052 10.59 10.44 -0.15 100 35 9.50 -999 -0.18 5.10 2.20

2053 10.46 10.35 -0.11 100 35 9.40 -1,019 -0.26 5.10 2.10

2054 10.34 10.36 0.02 100 35 9.40 -1,043 -0.34 5.10 2.10

2055 10.22 10.37 0.15 100 35 9.40 -1,063 -0.42 5.10 2.10

2056 10.10 10.28 0.18 100 35 9.30 -1,084 -0.50 5.10 2.00

2057 9.98 10.29 0.31 100 35 9.30 -1,107 -0.57 5.10 2.00

2058 9.87 10.20 0.32 100 35 9.20 -1,132 -0.64 5.10 1.90

2059 9.77 10.21 0.44 100 35 9.20 -1,157 -0.71 5.10 1.90

2060 9.67 10.21 0.54 100 35 9.20 -1,185 -0.77 5.10 1.90

2061 9.59 10.22 0.64 100 35 9.20 -1,216 -0.83 5.10 1.90

2062 9.51 10.13 0.62 100 35 9.10 -1,253 -0.89 5.10 1.80

2063 9.45 10.14 0.69 100 35 9.10 -1,298 -0.94 5.10 1.80

2064 9.40 10.15 0.75 100 35 9.10 -1,349 -1.00 5.10 1.80

2065 9.33 10.15 0.82 100 35 9.10 -1,390 -1.04 5.10 1.80

2066 9.27 10.16 0.89 100 35 9.10 -1,437 -1.09 5.10 1.80

2067 9.23 10.16 0.94 100 35 9.10 -1,492 -1.13 5.10 1.80

2068 9.19 10.17 0.97 100 35 9.10 -1,556 -1.17 5.10 1.80

2069 9.17 10.28 1.10 100 35 9.20 -1,627 -1.20 5.10 1.90

2070 9.16 10.18 1.02 101 35 9.10 -1,707 -1.23 5.10 1.80

2071 9.15 10.19 1.03 100 35 9.10 -1,795 -1.26 5.10 1.80

2072 9.16 10.29 1.14 100 35 9.20 -1,893 -1.28 5.10 1.90

2073 9.17 10.40 1.23 100 35 9.30 -2,000 -1.30 5.10 2.00

2074 9.18 10.30 1.12 101 35 9.20 -2,117 -1.32 5.10 1.90

2075 9.21 10.41 1.20 100 35 9.30 -2,244 -1.34 5.10 2.00

2076 9.23 10.42 1.18 100 35 9.30 -2,381 -1.35 5.10 2.00

2077 9.27 10.52 1.25 100 35 9.40 -2,527 -1.36 5.10 2.10

2078 9.30 10.53 1.22 100 35 9.40 -2,686 -1.37 5.10 2.10

 Summarized

CostRt IncRt ActBal Change in

2003 OASDI OASDI OASDI ActBal

-2077 12.03 11.15 -0.88 1.04

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report Office of the Actuary

 With Ult TF Real Int Rate of 3.00 **Including borrowing from Ind Accts in Form of SST Bonds Social Security Administration

* Net of Benefit Offset *** Excluding reinvestment of interest in SST Bonds. September 9, 2003
Table 4 DeMint: Sensitivity -- IA/Annuity Yields at Expected Treasury Bond Yield IA Cntrb 5.1 %, Ben Offset 100.0 % Ultimate

 With Ult Real TF Int Rate 3.0

 With Ult Real IA Yld Rate 2.75 Percent of Effectv Cash Flow Net Purchase Change in OASDI

 With Offset Annuity Net Yld Rate 2.75 IA Assets in OASDI to the GF of SST Bonds Contrib Rt from--

Cost Income Annual Cash TFR** SST Bonds Contrib (Tab c) by Individual IA Transfer

Year Rate* Rate Balance 1-1-yr 0n 12/31 Rate (bill cur$) Accounts*** Contrib from GF

2003 10.89 12.70 1.81 288 12.40

2004 10.82 12.69 1.88 309 12.40

2005 10.73 8.41 -2.32 330 35 8.11 -40 1.50 4.29

2006 10.65 8.16 -2.50 326 35 7.85 -47 1.58 4.55

2007 10.67 8.08 -2.58 320 35 7.77 -53 1.61 4.63

2008 10.73 8.02 -2.71 312 35 7.69 -61 1.63 4.71

2009 10.84 7.96 -2.88 302 35 7.62 -74 1.65 4.78

2010 10.99 7.91 -3.07 290 35 7.55 -88 1.67 4.85

2011 11.16 7.91 -3.25 277 35 7.51 -104 1.68 4.89

2012 11.33 7.89 -3.44 263 35 7.47 -122 1.68 4.93

2013 11.54 7.87 -3.66 246 35 7.43 -144 1.67 4.97

2014 11.76 7.86 -3.89 228 35 7.40 -169 1.66 5.00

2015 11.99 7.85 -4.13 209 35 7.37 -197 1.64 5.03

2016 12.25 7.86 -4.39 187 35 7.36 -229 1.62 5.04

2017 12.52 7.87 -4.65 164 35 7.35 -265 1.60 5.05

2018 12.81 7.88 -4.92 140 35 7.34 -303 1.57 5.06

2019 13.08 9.80 -3.28 114 35 9.23 -344 1.54 5.07 1.90

2020 13.36 11.91 -1.45 100 35 11.33 -389 1.51 5.07 4.00

2021 13.65 12.23 -1.42 100 35 11.62 -439 1.47 5.08 4.30

2022 13.92 12.45 -1.47 100 35 11.82 -489 1.44 5.08 4.50

2023 14.14 12.77 -1.38 100 35 12.12 -538 1.40 5.08 4.80

2024 14.36 12.98 -1.37 100 35 12.31 -590 1.36 5.09 5.00

2025 14.55 13.20 -1.35 100 35 12.51 -643 1.31 5.09 5.20

2026 14.72 13.42 -1.30 100 35 12.71 -697 1.27 5.09 5.40

2027 14.87 13.53 -1.34 100 35 12.81 -752 1.22 5.09 5.50

2028 15.00 13.65 -1.35 100 35 12.91 -809 1.17 5.09 5.60

2029 15.10 13.77 -1.33 100 35 13.00 -864 1.12 5.10 5.70

2030 15.16 13.88 -1.28 100 35 13.10 -919 1.06 5.10 5.80

2031 15.20 13.99 -1.21 100 35 13.20 -972 1.01 5.10 5.90

2032 15.20 14.00 -1.20 100 35 13.20 -1,024 0.95 5.10 5.90

2033 15.18 14.01 -1.17 100 35 13.20 -1,074 0.89 5.10 5.90

2034 15.13 13.92 -1.21 100 35 13.10 -1,122 0.83 5.10 5.80

2035 15.06 13.93 -1.13 100 35 13.10 -1,169 0.77 5.10 5.80

2036 14.96 13.94 -1.02 100 35 13.10 -1,213 0.71 5.10 5.80

2037 14.84 13.84 -1.00 100 35 13.00 -1,256 0.65 5.10 5.70

2038 14.71 13.75 -0.96 100 35 12.90 -1,296 0.58 5.10 5.60

2039 14.56 13.65 -0.91 100 35 12.80 -1,334 0.52 5.10 5.50

2040 14.41 13.56 -0.85 100 35 12.70 -1,371 0.45 5.10 5.40

2041 14.25 13.46 -0.79 100 35 12.60 -1,409 0.38 5.10 5.30

2042 14.08 13.36 -0.72 100 35 12.50 -1,446 0.31 5.10 5.20

2043 13.92 13.27 -0.65 100 35 12.40 -1,484 0.24 5.10 5.10

2044 13.76 13.17 -0.59 100 35 12.30 -1,523 0.17 5.10 5.00

2045 13.60 13.17 -0.43 100 35 12.30 -1,564 0.09 5.10 5.00

2046 13.46 13.08 -0.38 100 35 12.20 -1,610 0.02 5.10 4.90

2047 13.31 12.98 -0.33 100 35 12.10 -1,656 -0.05 5.10 4.80

2048 13.17 12.89 -0.28 100 35 12.00 -1,703 -0.12 5.10 4.70

2049 13.01 12.79 -0.22 100 35 11.90 -1,748 -0.21 5.10 4.60

2050 12.86 12.80 -0.06 100 35 11.90 -1,797 -0.29 5.10 4.60

2051 12.73 12.81 0.07 100 35 11.90 -1,852 -0.36 5.10 4.60

2052 12.62 12.71 0.10 100 35 11.80 -1,913 -0.43 5.10 4.50

2053 12.54 12.82 0.28 100 35 11.90 -1,987 -0.49 5.10 4.60

2054 12.47 12.72 0.25 100 35 11.80 -2,065 -0.55 5.10 4.50

2055 12.41 12.73 0.32 100 35 11.80 -2,147 -0.60 5.10 4.50

2056 12.35 12.73 0.38 100 35 11.80 -2,234 -0.65 5.10 4.50

2057 12.29 12.74 0.45 100 35 11.80 -2,324 -0.70 5.10 4.50

2058 12.24 12.65 0.41 100 35 11.70 -2,417 -0.74 5.10 4.40

2059 12.18 12.75 0.57 100 35 11.80 -2,513 -0.78 5.10 4.50

2060 12.13 12.65 0.53 100 35 11.70 -2,613 -0.82 5.10 4.40

2061 12.08 12.66 0.58 100 35 11.70 -2,718 -0.86 5.10 4.40

2062 12.04 12.76 0.72 100 35 11.80 -2,830 -0.90 5.10 4.50

2063 12.01 12.67 0.66 100 35 11.70 -2,952 -0.93 5.10 4.40

2064 11.98 12.77 0.79 100 35 11.80 -3,082 -0.96 5.10 4.50

2065 11.96 12.67 0.72 100 35 11.70 -3,219 -0.99 5.10 4.40

2066 11.95 12.78 0.83 100 35 11.80 -3,366 -1.02 5.10 4.50

2067 11.94 12.78 0.84 100 35 11.80 -3,524 -1.05 5.10 4.50

2068 11.94 12.79 0.84 100 35 11.80 -3,694 -1.07 5.10 4.50

2069 11.95 12.89 0.94 100 35 11.90 -3,874 -1.09 5.10 4.60

2070 11.97 12.90 0.93 100 35 11.90 -4,067 -1.11 5.10 4.60

2071 11.98 12.90 0.92 100 35 11.90 -4,271 -1.13 5.10 4.60

2072 12.01 12.90 0.90 100 35 11.90 -4,488 -1.15 5.10 4.60

2073 12.03 13.11 1.08 100 35 12.10 -4,718 -1.16 5.10 4.80

2074 12.06 13.01 0.95 100 35 12.00 -4,962 -1.17 5.10 4.70

2075 12.10 13.12 1.02 100 35 12.10 -5,219 -1.19 5.10 4.80

2076 12.13 13.12 0.99 100 35 12.10 -5,491 -1.20 5.10 4.80

2077 12.17 13.22 1.06 100 35 12.20 -5,777 -1.21 5.10 4.90

2078 12.21 13.23 1.02 100 35 12.20 -6,079 -1.22 5.10 4.90

 Summarized

CostRt IncRt ActBal Change in

2003 OASDI OASDI OASDI ActBal

-2077 12.95 12.33 -0.62 1.30

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report Office of the Actuary

 With Ult TF Real Int Rate of 3.00 **Including borrowing from Ind Accts in Form of SST Bonds Social Security Administration

* Net of Benefit Offset *** Excluding reinvestment of interest in SST Bonds. September 9, 2003
Table 5. Monthly Annuity as Percent of Social Security Benefit -- Single, UNISEX

 Retire at 65 PRELIMINARY* Contrib Rt: 8 % for $1, 3 % for Max

Percent of Present Law OASDI Retirement Benefit Provided with Annuity from Spec% IA

Contributions Start 2005, or Age 21, If Later, Through Age 64

DeMint Contrib Rts Based on Formula

 Percent of Assets Invested in Equities IA Annual Admin = 0.25 % of

65.0% 93.6% 36.4% 0.0% Assets

 Percent of Assets in Corporate Bonds

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% --Balance in LT U.S. Govt Bonds

Real Net Yield on Assets During Accumulation

5.025 6.025 4.025 2.75

Year Attain Annuity Real Return Rate -- Net of IA Administrative Expenses

Age 65 5.025 6.025 4.025 2.75

Scaled Low Earner

2014 11.0 12.5 9.6 8.0

2024 34.6 41.9 28.5 22.0

2034 67.5 87.1 52.3 37.5

2044 106.3 145.9 77.5 51.9

2054 119.9 168.5 85.5 55.8

Scaled Medium Earner

2014 12.9 14.6 11.3 9.4

2024 39.1 47.3 32.2 25.0

2034 75.9 97.8 58.8 42.3

2044 120.9 166.2 88.2 59.0

2054 138.1 194.6 98.3 64.0

Scaled High Earner

2014 12.9 14.7 11.3 9.4

2024 37.2 44.9 30.7 23.9

2034 71.6 92.2 55.6 40.0

2044 116.5 160.3 84.8 56.7

2054 135.6 191.9 96.2 62.3

Steady Maximum Earner

2014 11.2 12.7 9.8 8.2

2024 30.1 36.2 24.9 19.4

2034 56.8 73.0 44.2 32.0

2044 94.7 130.4 68.8 46.0

2054 113.0 160.5 79.9 51.5

Note: "Self Annuitization" presumes that retirees would continue to invest their assets

in the same manner as before retirement, and make monthly withdrawals that,

on average, roughly match the pattern of a CPI-indexed life annuity.

* Note: Values may be somewhat overstated due to use of general population mortality 

 for annuity calculations. Earnings Scale

Factors #2: using cross section

 data of all fully insured for

 1990-99

Based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report

OCACT/SSA September 9, 2003
Table 6. Monthly Annuity as Percent of Social Security Benefit -- Joint & 2/3 Survivor

 Retire at 65 PRELIMINARY* Contrib Rt: 8 % for $1, 3 % for Max

Percent of Present Law OASDI Retirement Benefit Provided with Annuity from Spec% IA

Contributions Start 2005, or Age 21, If Later, Through Age 64

DeMint Contrib Rts Based on Formula

 Percent of Assets Invested in Equities IA Annual Admin = 0.25 % of

65.0% 93.6% 36.4% 0.0% Assets

 Percent of Assets in Corporate Bonds --Balance in LT U.S. Govt Bonds

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Real Net Yield on Assets During Accumulation

5.025 6.025 4.025 2.75 5.025 6.025 4.025 2.75

Year Annuity Real Return Rate -- Net of IA Administrative Expenses

Attain 5.025 6.025 4.025 2.75 5.025 6.025 4.025 2.75

Age 65

2-earner couple Scaled Low Earner 1-earner couple

2014 10.4 11.8 9.0 7.5 6.9 7.9 6.0 5.0

2024 32.6 39.6 26.7 20.5 22.0 26.7 18.0 13.8

2034 63.6 82.4 49.0 35.0 43.0 55.6 33.1 23.6

2044 100.2 138.1 72.8 48.4 67.7 93.3 49.2 32.7

2054 113.2 159.8 80.4 52.1 76.5 107.9 54.3 35.2

2-earner couple Scaled Medium Earner 1-earner couple

2014 12.1 13.8 10.5 8.7 8.1 9.3 7.1 5.9

2024 36.8 44.7 30.2 23.2 24.8 30.1 20.4 15.7

2034 71.5 92.5 55.1 39.4 48.3 62.5 37.2 26.6

2044 114.1 157.4 82.8 55.0 77.0 106.3 55.9 37.2

2054 130.5 184.6 92.5 59.8 88.1 124.6 62.4 40.4

2-earner couple Scaled High Earner 1-earner couple

2014 12.1 13.8 10.6 8.8 8.1 9.3 7.1 5.9

2024 35.0 42.4 28.8 22.2 23.6 28.6 19.4 15.0

2034 67.5 87.2 52.1 37.3 45.6 58.9 35.2 25.2

2044 109.9 151.8 79.7 52.9 74.2 102.5 53.8 35.7

2054 128.1 181.9 90.4 58.2 86.5 122.9 61.1 39.3

2-earner couple Steady Maximum Earner 1-earner couple

2014 10.5 12.0 9.2 7.6 7.0 8.0 6.1 5.1

2024 28.3 34.2 23.3 18.0 19.1 23.0 15.7 12.2

2034 53.5 69.0 41.4 29.8 36.1 46.6 28.0 20.1

2044 89.3 123.5 64.7 42.9 60.3 83.4 43.7 29.0

2054 106.7 152.2 75.1 48.2 72.1 102.8 50.7 32.5

Note: "Self Annuitization" presumes that retirees would continue to invest their assets

in the same manner as before retirement, and make monthly withdrawals that,

on average, roughly match the pattern of a CPI-indexed life annuity.

* Note: Values may be somewhat overstated due to use of general population mortality 

 for annuity calculations. Earnings Scale

Factors #2: using cross section

 data of all fully insured for

 1990-99

Based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report

OCACT/SSA September 9, 2003
Table A3. Accumulated Assets in Individual Account at Retirement Earnings Scale 2

 Retire at 65 Contrib Rt: 8 % for $1, 3 % for Max Factors #2: using cross section

DeMint Accumulated IA at Spec Percent of OASDI Taxable Earnings data of all fully insured for

Contributions Start 2005, or Age 21, If Later, Through Age 64 1990-99

Accumulated Assets at Age 65

DeMint Contrib Rts Based on Formula

 Percent of Assets Invested in Equities IA Annual Admin = 0.25 % of

65.0% 93.6% 36.4% 0.0% Assets

 Percent of Assets in Corporate Bonds --Balance in LT U.S. Govt Bonds

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Year Real Net Yield on Assets During Accumulation

Attain 5.025 6.0250 4.0250 2.7500 5.025 6.025 4.025 2.75

Age 65

(current dollars) Scaled Low Earner (constant 2003 dollars)

2014 15,700 16,471 14,967 14,086 11,452 12,014 10,918 10,275

2024 70,633 78,703 63,481 55,525 38,338 42,718 34,456 30,137

2034 206,774 245,064 175,133 142,563 83,511 98,975 70,732 57,578

2044 495,989 624,634 396,703 301,829 149,055 187,716 119,218 90,706

2054 851,126 1,096,003 666,915 495,633 190,325 245,084 149,133 110,831

(current dollars) Scaled Medium Earner (constant 2003 dollars)

2014 30,227 31,696 28,830 27,149 22,049 23,120 21,030 19,804

2024 131,513 146,351 118,354 103,705 71,382 79,436 64,239 56,288

2034 382,952 453,474 324,674 264,679 154,665 183,147 131,128 106,897

2044 930,233 1,172,556 743,484 565,325 279,555 352,378 223,433 169,892

2054 1,615,392 2,085,471 1,262,823 936,102 361,227 466,345 282,387 209,327

(current dollars) Scaled High Earner (constant 2003 dollars)

2014 40,226 42,151 38,395 36,190 29,343 30,747 28,007 26,398

2024 166,001 184,340 149,719 131,571 90,101 100,055 81,264 71,413

2034 479,118 566,525 406,880 332,498 193,504 228,806 164,329 134,288

2044 1,188,214 1,499,910 948,564 720,540 357,083 450,755 285,064 216,537

2054 2,102,882 2,725,686 1,637,896 1,209,231 470,238 609,507 366,260 270,403

(current dollars) Steady Maximum Earner (constant 2003 dollars)

2014 41,989 43,938 40,134 37,897 30,629 32,050 29,275 27,643

2024 163,240 180,804 147,631 130,211 88,603 98,136 80,131 70,675

2034 464,182 547,675 395,155 324,045 187,471 221,193 159,593 130,874

2044 1,177,089 1,488,006 938,710 712,603 353,740 447,177 282,102 214,152

2054 2,135,122 2,778,601 1,656,802 1,218,133 477,447 621,339 370,487 272,394

Average Annual Earnings level (high 35 wage-indxd) in 2003 is assumed at:

Low 15,629

Average 34,731 (=SSA AWI)

High 55,569

Ultimate Assumed Growth Rates and Real Yields

4.10 percent annual increase in Average Earnings

3.00 percent annual CPI increase

3.00 percent annual real yield on LT U.S. Government Bonds

3.50 percent annual real yield on Corporate Bonds

6.50 percent annual real yield on Equities

0.25 percent annual Administrative Expense

3.398 percent equity premium over LT Govt Bonds

Based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report

OCACT/SSA September 9, 2003