SOCIAL SECURITY 

Office of the Chief Actuary

SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE MD 21235-0001 

July 11, 2013 

The Honorable Sam Johnson 

Chairman, Subcommittee on Social Security 

Committee on Ways and Means 

House of Representatives 

Washington, D.C. 20515 

Dear Mr. Johnson: 

We are writing in response to your request for estimates of the financial effects on Social 

Security of two changes proposed in the President’s Fiscal Year 2014 Budget. The two proposed 

changes would: 

a. Alter the computation of the annual Social Security cost of living adjustment (COLA)

to reflect change in the chain-weighted consumer price index for all urban consumers

(C-CPI-U), and

b. Provide beneficiaries with a benefit enhancement beginning in their 15th year of

benefit eligibility.

Other changes proposed in the Budget, which may have financial effects on the Social Security 

program, are not included in the estimates provided in this letter. 

We have based the specifications for these provisions on the material available on the White 

House web site. The estimates provided here reflect our understanding of the intent of these 

provisions including details we believe to be consistent with that intent. The estimates presented 

reflect the combined efforts of many in our office, but particularly Alice Wade, Chris Chaplain, 

Dan Nickerson, Jason Schultz, Tiffany Bosley, and Katie Sutton. 

The enclosed tables provide estimates of the effects of the two provisions (the proposal) on the 

cost, income, and trust fund reserves for the Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance 

(OASDI) program, as well as the estimated effects on retired worker benefit levels for selected 

hypothetical workers. In addition, tables 1b and 1b.n reflect the Federal budget implications of 

the two provisions. We estimate that enactment of these provisions would extend full solvency of 

the OASDI program for an additional year, with the projected depletion of the combined OASI 

and DI Trust Fund reserves changing from 2033 under current law to 2034 under the proposal. 

All estimates provided here are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2012 Trustees 

Report. 
2

Summary of Effects of the Provisions on OASDI Actuarial Status

Figure 1 below illustrates the expected change in the combined Old-Age and Survivors Insurance 

(OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund reserves, expressed as a percent of annual 

program cost, assuming enactment of the two provisions of this proposal. 

Note: Trust Fund Ratio for a given year is the ratio of reserves in the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds at the 

beginning of the year to the cost of the program during the year. 

Assuming enactment of the two provisions, the level of reserves for the theoretical combined 

OASI and DI Trust Funds would decline from 340 percent of annual program cost at the 

beginning of 2012 until these reserves would become depleted in 2034 (1 year later than 

projected depletion under current law). At the time of reserve depletion in 2034, the program 

would be able to pay about 77 percent of then scheduled benefits with continuing taxes (under 

current law and the intermediate assumptions of the 2102 Trustees Report, 75 percent of 

scheduled benefits are projected to be payable in 2033 after depletion). By 2086, 75 percent of 

benefits scheduled under the proposal would be payable compared to 73 percent of scheduled 

benefits payable under present law.

Enactment of the proposal would eliminate about 13 percent of the long-range OASDI actuarial 

deficit of 2.67 percent of taxable payroll under current law, lowering the OASDI actuarial deficit 

to 2.32 percent of payroll for the long-range period.

 
3

Figure 2 below illustrates annual projected levels of cost, expenditures, and non-interest income 

as a percent of the current-law taxable payroll. The projected levels of cost reflect the full cost of 

scheduled benefits under both present law and the proposal. After trust fund reserve depletion, 

projected expenditures under current law and under the proposal include only amounts payable 

from projected tax revenues (non-interest income), which are less than projected cost.

After 2013, OASDI program cost is lower under the proposal than under current law. This 

difference in program cost increases gradually over time to about 0.48 percent of current-law 

payroll by 2086. Non-interest income under the proposal is slightly lower than under current law, 

with the difference in non-interest income at 0.03 percent of payroll by 2086. The proposal 

improves the annual cash-flow balance (non-interest income minus program cost) by 0.26 

percent of payroll for 2025, with the improvement increasing to 0.45 percent of payroll by 2086. 

Under the proposal, annual cash-flow balance is still negative for all years of the projection 

period, with annual deficits reaching 4.05 percent of payroll by 2086. As a comparison, the 

projected annual deficit under current law is 4.50 percent of payroll for 2086 under the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2012 Trustees Report.
4

It is also useful to consider the projected cost, expenditures, and income for the OASDI program 

expressed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The graph below illustrates these 

levels under both current law and the proposal. 

Specifications of the Provisions of the Proposal

(1) Change the COLA to be based on C-CPI-U

Under current law, the annual COLA for Social Security benefits effective for December of a

year is equal to the percentage increase (if any) in the average CPI-W1for the third quarter of the 

year over the average for the third quarter of the last prior year in which a COLA became 

effective.

Starting with the COLA for December 2014, the proposal would use the chain-weighted

consumer price index for all urban consumers (C-CPI-U) in place of the CPI-W. Because the CCPI-U reflects changes in spending patterns of consumers during each month, a final version of 

the C-CPI-U index is not available until 2 years after the measurement period. An initial value 

for the C-CPI-U is available with the same timing as the CPI-W, an interim value one year later, 

and the final value 2 years after the initial value is released. We expect the following two 

 

1 Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Salary Workers
5

possible approaches for the computation of the COLA under the C-CPI-U to have similar

financial impacts on the OASDI program. 

Approach 1: Under this simple approach, the COLA is computed as it is now, using the initial 

C-CPI-U index levels in place of the CPI-W index levels. The initial C-CPI-U level is computed 

using the “geometric means” approach for combining increases across the 211 broad strata of 

goods and services used for all CPI indices. On average, increases in the initial C-CPI-U values 

from one period to another are expected to be the same as increases in the final C-CPI-U for the 

same periods. 

Approach 2: Under this more complex approach, the COLA is computed as in Approach 1, but 

two adjustments would be included. The first adjustment would include the difference between 

the increase in the initial C-CPI-U values used in determining the immediate prior COLA and the 

increase in the interim values for the same period. The second adjustment would include the 

difference between the increase in the interim C-CPI-U values used in adjusting the second prior 

COLA and the increase in the final values for the same period. 

We expect either approach to yield COLAs that are on average 0.3 percent less than current law 

COLAs. This provision alone is estimated to reduce the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit by 

0.53 percent of taxable payroll and to reduce the annual deficit for the 75th projection year (2086) 

by 0.73 percent of payroll. 

(2) Benefit (PIA) enhancement starting with the 15th year of benefit eligibility

This provision provides for a benefit (PIA) enhancement beginning in 2020, starting with the 15th

year of eligibility for an OASDI benefit based on the earnings record of a worker. For example, 

for a retired worker becoming eligible for benefits at age 62 (regardless of the age at which 

benefits actually start), payment of the first stage of the enhancement will begin to phase in the 

year the retiree attains age 76. For a disabled worker first entitled to benefits at age 52, payment 

of the enhancement will begin to phase in the year the worker attains age 66. 

The base amount of the enhancement is computed as 5 percent of the average PIA for all retired 

worker beneficiaries for December of the worker’s 13th year of benefit eligibility. This base 

amount is increased by COLAs each year thereafter. 

The first stage of the enhancement phases in by adding 10 percent of the base amount to the PIA 

for December of the 14th year of eligibility, which is first paid to beneficiaries in January of the 

15th year of eligibility (the year attaining 76 for retirees). The PIA for December of the 

following year is increased by adding an amount that brings the total increase to 20 percent of 

the base amount. This pattern of the enhancement continues until the PIA for December of the 

23rd year of eligibility is increased to total of 100 percent of the base amount, which is first paid 

in January of the 24th year of eligibility (the year attaining age 85 for retirees). 

The second stage of the enhancement phases in over 10 years starting in the 34th year of 

eligibility (the year attaining age 95 for retirees). The PIA used for benefits paid in the 43rd year 

of eligibility (age 104 for retirees) is increased by a total of 200 percent of the base amount.
6

For beneficiaries who are past the 15th year of eligibility in 2020, the 10-year phase in of the base 

amount will begin with benefits paid in 2020, with 100 percent of the base amount added to the 

PIA for benefits paid in 2029. Similarly, for beneficiaries who are past the 34th year of eligibility

in 2020, the second stage of the benefit enhancement will begin to be phased in over 10 years 

starting in 2020.

The benefit enhancement affects the PIA of the worker on the record. The worker’s PIA governs 

the amount and timing of benefit enhancement paid to auxiliaries and dependents. For example, 

the timing of benefit enhancements for young survivor benefits is based on the number of years 

since the initial computation of the PIA (generally the year of death of the worker if under 62 and 

not disabled at death).

This provision, incremental to the effect of the chain-weighted CPI provision described above, is 

estimated to increase the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit by 0.18 percent of taxable payroll 

and to increase the annual deficit for the 75th projection year (2086) by 0.27 percent of payroll.

 

Detailed Financial Results for the Provisions of the Proposal 

Summary Results by Provision

Table A provides estimates of the effects on the OASDI long-range actuarial balance for the two 

provisions of the proposal separately and on a combined basis. The table also includes summary 

estimates for the effect on the annual balance (the difference between income rate and the cost 

rate, expressed as a percent of present-law taxable payroll) for the 75th projection year, 2086. 

Benefit Illustrations

Tables B1 and B2 provide illustrative examples of the projected change in benefit levels under 

the two provisions for beneficiaries retiring at age 65 in future years at five selected earnings 

levels, with selected numbers of years of work. Table B3 provides additional important 

information on characteristics of the illustrative retiring workers. 

Table B1 compares the initial benefit levels assuming retirement at age 65 under the basic 

provisions of the proposal to both scheduled and payable present-law benefit levels. The final 

two columns of this table show the level of scheduled benefits under the proposal as a percentage 

of present law scheduled and present law payable benefits, respectively. In the final column, no 

percentage is provided for years after 2033 because scheduled benefits under the proposal would 

not be fully payable. 

Table B2 compares the change in scheduled benefit levels at ages 65, 75, 85, and 95 under the 

proposal to scheduled benefits under present law, assuming retirement at age 65. Table B2 shows 

that projected scheduled benefits under the provisions of this proposal decrease in relation to 

present-law scheduled benefits between ages 65 and 75. However, by age 85, proposed benefits 

for the very-low and low earners are higher than those scheduled under present law, because the 

increase in their benefits due to the benefit enhancement is greater than the reduction in their 

benefits due to the COLA. Proposal benefit levels at age 95 include the very first year of the 

second stage of the benefit enhancement.
7

For all but the Maximum-AIME Steady Earner, the hypothetical earners represented in these 

tables reflect average career-earnings patterns of earners who started receiving retirement 

benefits under the Social Security program in recent years. The tables subdivide workers with 

very low, low, and medium career-average earnings levels by their numbers of years of non-zero 

earnings. The Maximum-AIME Steady Earner is assumed to have earnings at ages 22 through 64 

that equal the present-law taxable maximum level (equivalent to $110,100 in 2012).

Table B3 provides information helpful in interpreting the benefit illustrations in tables B1.1 and 

B2.1. Percentages in Table B3 are based on tabulations from a 10-percent sample of newlyentitled retired workers in 2007. Table B3 displays the percentages of these newly-entitled 

retired workers in 2007 that are closest to each of the illustrative examples and are: 

1) “Dually Entitled”, meaning they received a higher spouse or widow(er) benefit based on 

the career earnings of their husband or wife,

2) “WEP” (Windfall Elimination Provision), meaning that they received a reduced benefit 

due to having a pension based on earnings that were not covered under the OASDI 

program (primarily certain government workers), and they had less than 30 years of 

substantial earnings that were taxable under the OASDI program,

3) “Foreign Born”, meaning that they entered the Social Security coverage area after birth 

(and generally after entering working ages), and

4) “All Others”, meaning they had none of the three characteristics listed above.

The extent to which retired-worker beneficiaries represented by each of the illustrative examples 

has any of the characteristics listed above (dually entitled, WEP, foreign born) is important 

because such individuals are less dependent on the OASDI benefit that relates to their own 

career-average earnings level. 

Trust Fund Operations

Table 1 shows the annual cost and income rates, annual balances, and trust fund ratios (reserves 

as percent of annual program cost) for OASDI assuming enactment of the two basic Social 

Security provisions of the proposal. This table also shows the change from present law in these 

cost rates, income rates, and balances. Included at the bottom of this table are summarized rates 

for the 75-year (long-range) period. 

Table 1 indicates that the OASDI program is projected to be fully solvent for one additional year 

assuming enactment of the two provisions. The year in which the combined reserves of the OASI 

and DI Trust Funds are projected to become depleted would change from 2033 under current law 

to 2034. After depletion of the trust fund reserves, continuing income would be sufficient to pay 

a slightly higher percentage of scheduled benefits than under current law. Under current law

(using the intermediate assumptions of the 2012 Trustees Report), 75 percent of benefits are 

projected to be payable at trust fund reserve depletion in 2033, declining to 73 percent payable 

by 2086. Under this proposal, 100 percent of the proposed (higher) scheduled benefits would be 

fully payable through 2033, and 77 percent would be payable at trust fund reserve depletion in 

2034, declining to 75 percent payable by 2086. 
8

The actuarial deficit for the OASDI program over the 75-year projection period is reduced by 

0.34 percent of taxable payroll, from an actuarial deficit of 2.67 percent of payroll under current 

law to an actuarial deficit estimated at 2.32 percent of taxable payroll under the proposal. 

We project annual balances (annual income rate minus annual cost rate) to continue to be 

negative for all years of the projection period. Compared to current law, we project smaller 

annual deficits (negative annual balances) after 2015, with projected deficits smaller by 0.40 

percentage points or more from 2037 through 2086. 

Program Transfers and Trust Fund Reserves

Column 4 of Table 1a provides a projection of the level of reserves for the theoretical combined 

OASI and DI Trust Funds under the basic Social Security provisions of the proposal, expressed 

in present value dollars discounted to January 1, 2012. The table indicates that the basic 

provisions include no new specified transfers of general revenue to the trust funds. For purpose 

of comparison, the OASDI Trust Fund reserves, expressed in present value dollars, are also 

shown for the current-law Social Security program both without the added general fund transfers 

(if any) provided under the proposal (column 6) and with the proposal added transfers (column 

7). Note that negative values in columns 4, 6, and 7 represent the “unfunded obligation” for the 

program through the year. The unfunded obligation is the present value of the shortfall of 

revenue needed to pay full scheduled benefits on a timely basis from the date of trust fund 

reserve depletion to the end of the indicated year. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), expressed in 

present value dollars, is shown in column 5 for comparison with other values in the table. 

Effect of the Basic Social Security Provisions on the Federal Budget

Table 1b shows the projected effect, in present value discounted dollars, on the Federal budget 

(unified-budget and on-budget) cash flows and balances, assuming enactment of the two Social 

Security provisions of this proposal. Table 1b.n provides the estimated nominal dollar effect of 

enactment of the two provisions individually, and combined, on the annual budget balances for 

years 2012 through 2023. All values in these tables represent the amount of the change from the 

level projected under current law. 

We expect the effect of the two basic Social Security provisions on unified budget cash flow 

(column 3) to be positive starting for 2015, reflecting the benefit reduction due to the chained 

CPI provision. 

Column 4 of Table 1b indicates that the projected effect of implementing the two basic Social 

Security provisions is a reduction, starting in 2015, of the Federal debt held by the public. The 

amount of this reduction reaches $1.2 trillion in present value by 2086. Column 5 provides the 

projected effect of the basic Social Security provisions on the annual unified budget balances, 

including both the cash flow effect in column 3 and the additional interest on the accumulated 

debt indicated in column 4. Columns 6 and 7 indicate that the basic Social Security provisions of 

this proposal would have no expected direct effects on the on-budget cash flow, or on the total 

Federal debt, in the future.

It is important to note that these estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2012 

Trustees Report and, thus, are not consistent with estimates made by the Office of Budget and 

Management or the Congressional Budget Office based on their assumptions. 
9

Annual Trust Fund Operations as a Percent of GDP

Table 1c provides annual cost, annual expenditures (on a payable basis), and annual tax income 

for the OASDI program expressed as a percentage of GDP. These values are shown for both 

present law and assuming enactment of the two Social Security provisions. Showing the annual 

trust fund flows as a percent of GDP provides an additional perspective on these trust fund 

operations in relation to the total value of goods and services produced in the United States. The 

relationship between income and cost expressed as a percent of GDP is similar to that when 

expressed as a percent of taxable payroll (see Table 1).

Effects on Trust Fund Reserves and Unfunded Obligations

Table 1d provides estimates of the changes due to enactment of the two Social Security 

provisions in the level of projected trust fund reserves for years prior to trust fund reserve 

depletion and the level of unfunded obligations for years after trust fund reserve depletion. All 

values in the table are expressed in present-value discounted dollars. For the 75-year (longrange) period as a whole, the present-law unfunded obligation of $8.6 trillion in present value is 

reduced to an unfunded obligation of $7.4 trillion in present value. This rounded $1.2 trillion of 

change equals the following: 

 A $1.2 trillion net decrease in cost (column 3), with benefit reductions due to the 

chained CPI more than offsetting increases due to the benefit enhancement provision, 

minus 

 A $0.1 trillion decrease in revenue (column 2), reflecting decreased taxation of 

benefits revenues arising from decreased aggregate benefit levels

We hope these estimates will be helpful. Please let me know if we may provide further 

assistance.

 Sincerely,

Stephen C. Goss

Chief Actuary

Enclosures 
Table A--Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of Two FY2014 Budget Provisions: 

Chain-weighted CPI for COLA and Benefit (PIA) Enhancement after 14 Years Eligibility

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

in 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

1) Starting December 2014, compute the COLA for OASDI 

benefits using the chain-weighted version of the consumer 

price index for all urban consumers (C-CPI-U). We estimate 

this new computation will reduce the annual COLA by about 

0.3 percentage point, on average. ........................................................................................ 0.53 0.73

2) Starting 2020, provide a uniform benefit (PIA)

enhancement after 14 years of benefit eligibility. Phase in 

PIA increase equal to 5 percent of average retired worker PIA 

over 10 years, starting with the 15th year of benefit eligibility. 

Provide a second PIA enhancement phased in over 10 years 

starting after the 34th year of eligibility. (See letter for 

details on the computation of the PIA enhancement.) 

For those past their 15th year of eligibility in 2020 (over age 

76 for retirees), phase in the PIA enhancement over 10 years 

starting in 2020.

Auxiliary beneficiaries receive benefit enhancement based on 

PIA of governing worker. 

Effect for PIA enhancement (estimated as incremental to 

chained CPI provision 1) above ................................................................................................ -0.18 ........ -0.27

Total for both provisions, including interaction ................................0.34 ......................................0.45

1Under current law, the estimated long-range OASDI actuarial balance is -2.67 percent of taxable payroll.

2Under current law, the estimated 75th year annual balance is -4.50 percent of taxable payroll.

Notes: All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2012 OASDI Trustees Report. 

 Estimates of individual provisions appear on a stand-alone basis relative to current law, unless otherwise stated.

Social Security Administration

Office of the Chief Actuary

July 11, 2013
Year 

Attain Reduced

Age 65 (Wage-Indexed (CPI-Indexed COLA4 Total Scheduled Payable

2012 Dollars) 2012 Dollars)

 

2012 678 678 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 602 790 -0.9 -0.9 99 99

2050 602 989 -0.9 -0.9 99 -

2080 602 1,361 -0.9 -0.9 99 -

 

2012 678 678 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 602 790 -0.9 -0.9 99 99

2050 602 989 -0.9 -0.9 99 -

2080 602 1,361 -0.9 -0.9 99 -

 

2012 678 678 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 602 790 -0.9 -0.9 99 99

2050 602 989 -0.9 -0.9 99 -

2080 602 1,361 -0.9 -0.9 99 -

2012 886 886 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 787 1,034 -0.9 -0.9 99 99

2050 788 1,294 -0.9 -0.9 99 -

2080 788 1,781 -0.9 -0.9 99 -

2012 886 886 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 787 1,034 -0.9 -0.9 99 99

2050 788 1,294 -0.9 -0.9 99 -

2080 788 1,781 -0.9 -0.9 99 -

2012 886 886 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 787 1,034 -0.9 -0.9 99 99

2050 788 1,294 -0.9 -0.9 99 -

2080 788 1,781 -0.9 -0.9 99 -

2012 1,460 1,460 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 1,297 1,704 -0.9 -0.9 99 99

2050 1,299 2,133 -0.9 -0.9 99 -

2080 1,299 2,934 -0.9 -0.9 99 -

2012 1,460 1,460 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 1,297 1,704 -0.9 -0.9 99 99

2050 1,299 2,133 -0.9 -0.9 99 -

2080 1,299 2,934 -0.9 -0.9 99 -

2012 1,936 1,936 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 1,719 2,258 -0.9 -0.9 99 99

2050 1,721 2,827 -0.9 -0.9 99 -

2080 1,721 3,888 -0.9 -0.9 99 -

2012 2,311 2,311 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 2,102 2,761 -0.9 -0.9 99 99

2050 2,102 3,453 -0.9 -0.9 99 -

2080 2,098 4,740 -0.9 -0.9 99 -

1 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2012.

2

Projected percent of new retired worker awards in 2050 closest to AIME levels and years of work.

3 After the trust fund reserves deplete under present law continuing taxes are expected to be enough to pay about three fourths of scheduled benefits.

4

5

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2012 Trustees Report.

Table B1. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Beginning Benefit Receipt at age 65 

Use Chain-weighted CPI for Social Security COLA4 and Provide a Benefit Enhancement after 14 Years Eligibility5

Scheduled Benefit Level Percent Change at age 65

Present Law Scheduled Proposal Scheduled Benefit

 Maximum-AIME ($110,100 for 20121) 43-Year Steady Earner (5.4% of Retirees2)

Starting Dec 2014, compute the COLA using chain-weighted CPI-U, producing 0.3% lower annual COLAs on average.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration July 11, 2013

Increase PIA by 5 percent of the average retired worker PIA phased in over 10 years after 14 Years of Eligibility, starting in 2020. Provide a second 5 percent 

increase phased in over 10 years after 34 years of eligibility, starting 2020.

 Low-AIME ($20,090 for 20121) 44-Year Scaled Earner (13.5% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($20,090 for 20121) 30-Year Scaled Earner (6.7% of Retirees2)

 High-AIME ($71,430 for 20121) 44-Year Scaled Earner (20.9% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($20,090 for 20121) 20-Year Scaled Earner (2.8% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($44,644 for 20121) 44-Year Scaled Earner (27.2% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($44,644 for 20121) 30-Year Scaled Earner (4.2% of Retirees2)

Monthly Benefits3 Percent of Present Law:

(Percent change) (Percents)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,161 for 20121) 30-Year Scaled Earner (8.1% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,161 for 20121) 20-Year Scaled Earner (6.0% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,161 for 20121) 14-Year Scaled Earner (5.2% of Retirees2)
Year 

Attain

Age 65 Age 65 Age 75 Age 85 Age 95

2012 100.0 97.7 104.7 102.6

2030 99.1 96.3 102.9 100.8

2050 99.1 96.3 102.7 100.6

2080 99.1 96.3 102.6 100.6

2012 100.0 97.7 104.7 102.6

2030 99.1 96.3 102.9 100.8

2050 99.1 96.3 102.7 100.6

2080 99.1 96.3 102.6 100.6

2012 100.0 97.7 104.7 102.6

2030 99.1 96.3 102.9 100.8

2050 99.1 96.3 102.7 100.6

2080 99.1 96.3 102.6 100.6

2012 100.0 97.7 102.4 100.1

2030 99.1 96.3 100.7 98.5

2050 99.1 96.3 100.5 98.3

2080 99.1 96.3 100.5 98.3

2012 100.0 97.7 102.4 100.1

2030 99.1 96.3 100.7 98.5

2050 99.1 96.3 100.5 98.3

2080 99.1 96.3 100.5 98.3

2012 100.0 97.7 102.4 100.1

2030 99.1 96.3 100.7 98.5

2050 99.1 96.3 100.5 98.3

2080 99.1 96.3 100.5 98.3

2012 100.0 97.7 99.4 97.0

2030 99.1 96.3 97.8 95.4

2050 99.1 96.3 97.8 95.4

2080 99.1 96.3 97.7 95.3

2012 100.0 97.7 99.4 97.0

2030 99.1 96.3 97.8 95.4

2050 99.1 96.3 97.8 95.4

2080 99.1 96.3 97.7 95.3

2012 100.0 97.7 98.3 95.8

2030 99.1 96.3 96.8 94.3

2050 99.1 96.3 96.7 94.2

2080 99.1 96.3 96.7 94.2

2012 100.0 97.7 97.7 95.2

2030 99.1 96.3 96.2 93.7

2050 99.1 96.3 96.1 93.6

2080 99.1 96.3 96.1 93.6

1 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2012.

2

Projected percent of new retired worker awards in 2050 closest to AIME levels and years of work.

3

4

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2012 Trustees Report.

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,161 for 20121) 20-Year Scaled Earner (6.0% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($20,090 for 20121) 44-Year Scaled Earner (13.5% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($44,644 for 20121) 44-Year Scaled Earner (27.2% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($44,644 for 20121) 30-Year Scaled Earner (4.2% of Retirees2)

Table B2. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Beginning Benefit Receipt at age 65 

Use Chain-weighted CPI for Social Security COLA3 and Provide a Benefit Enhancement after 14 Years Eligibility4

Proposal Scheduled Benefit as Percent of Present Law Scheduled

(Percent)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,161 for 20121) 30-Year Scaled Earner (8.1% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,161 for 20121) 14-Year Scaled Earner (5.2% of Retirees2)

Starting Dec 2014, compute the COLA using chain-weighted CPI-U, producing 0.3% lower annual COLAs on average.

 Low-AIME ($20,090 for 20121) 30-Year Scaled Earner (6.7% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($20,090 for 20121) 20-Year Scaled Earner (2.8% of Retirees2)

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration July 11, 2013

 High-AIME ($71,430 for 20121) 44-Year Scaled Earner (20.9% of Retirees2)

 Maximum-AIME ($110,100 for 20121) 43-Year Steady Earner (5.4% of Retirees2)

Increase PIA by 5 percent of the average retired worker PIA phased in over 10 years after 14 Years of Eligibility, starting in 2020. Provide a second 5 percent increase phased in over 

10 years after 34 years of eligibility, starting 2020.
Category Dually Entitled2 WEP3

Foreign Born All Others4

Very-Low-AIME ($11,161 for 20121):

30-Year Scaled Earner (9.3% of Retirees) 47 6 11 40

20-Year Scaled Earner (5.8% of Retirees) 38 16 21 31

14-Year Scaled Earner (5.3% of Retirees) 22 21 45 20

Low-AIME ($20,090 for 20121):

44-Year Scaled Earner (13.1% of Retirees) 15 2 6 78

30-Year Scaled Earner (5.9% of Retirees) 16 9 18 59

20-Year Scaled Earner (3.1% of Retirees) 10 23 35 37

Medium-AIME ($44,644 for 20121):

44-Year Scaled Earner (23.0% of Retirees) 1 1 5 93

30-Year Scaled Earner (4.4% of Retirees) 1 8 26 67

High-AIME ($71,430 for 20121):

44-Year Scaled Earner (20.5% of Retirees) 0 0 6 93

Maximum-AIME ($110,100 for 20121):

Steady Earner (9.4% of Retirees) 0 0 7 93

1 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2012.

2

3 Covered by pension from government employment and are subject to the windfall elimination provision (WEP).

4 Neither foreign born, subject to WEP, or dually entitled.

April 23, 2012

Under current law, entitled to an additional benefit based on someone else's account. The dually entitled percent is a minimum value. Some beneficiaries that are not currently 

dually entitled could become dually entitled in the future.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration

Table B3. Important Characteristics of Hypothetical Workers in 2007

Percent of Beneficiaries Within Each Category That Are:

Note 1: Percents based on tabulations of a 10-percent sample of newly entitled retired-worker beneficiaries in 2007 (169,725 records). We can be 95 percent confident that each of 

the values shown above is within 1.4 percentage points of the value we would find using 100 percent of the retirees in 2007.

Note 2: The sum of the percentages for each category (sum across rows) could be greater than 100 percent because some beneficiaries can be classified in more than one of the 

following groups: dually entitled, WEP, and foreign born. 
Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2012 13.83 12.89 -0.93 340 0.00 0.00 0.00

2013 13.95 12.83 -1.12 329 0.00 0.00 0.00

2014 13.98 12.93 -1.05 315 0.00 0.00 0.00

2015 13.93 12.95 -0.98 303 -0.04 0.00 0.04

2016 13.86 12.98 -0.88 291 -0.08 0.00 0.07

2017 13.80 13.00 -0.80 281 -0.11 -0.01 0.11

2018 13.81 13.03 -0.78 270 -0.15 -0.01 0.14

2019 13.95 13.04 -0.90 259 -0.19 -0.01 0.18

2020 14.18 13.06 -1.11 247 -0.20 -0.01 0.19

2021 14.44 13.10 -1.35 235 -0.21 -0.01 0.20

2022 14.74 13.12 -1.63 222 -0.23 -0.01 0.22

2023 15.05 13.13 -1.91 208 -0.24 -0.01 0.23

2024 15.34 13.15 -2.19 193 -0.26 -0.01 0.24

2025 15.61 13.17 -2.44 177 -0.27 -0.01 0.26

2026 15.87 13.18 -2.69 161 -0.29 -0.02 0.27

2027 16.11 13.20 -2.92 145 -0.30 -0.02 0.28

2028 16.32 13.21 -3.12 127 -0.31 -0.02 0.30

2029 16.51 13.22 -3.29 109 -0.32 -0.02 0.31

2030 16.66 13.23 -3.43 90 -0.34 -0.02 0.32

2031 16.79 13.24 -3.55 71 -0.36 -0.02 0.34

2032 16.88 13.25 -3.63 51 -0.37 -0.02 0.35

2033 16.94 13.25 -3.69 30 -0.39 -0.02 0.36

2034 16.98 13.25 -3.73 9 -0.40 -0.02 0.37

2035 17.00 13.26 -3.75 ---- -0.41 -0.02 0.38

2036 17.01 13.26 -3.75 ---- -0.41 -0.02 0.39

2037 17.01 13.26 -3.75 ---- -0.42 -0.02 0.40

2038 16.99 13.26 -3.73 ---- -0.43 -0.02 0.40

2039 16.96 13.26 -3.70 ---- -0.43 -0.02 0.41

2040 16.92 13.26 -3.66 ---- -0.43 -0.02 0.41

2041 16.88 13.26 -3.63 ---- -0.44 -0.02 0.41

2042 16.84 13.26 -3.59 ---- -0.44 -0.02 0.41

2043 16.80 13.25 -3.55 ---- -0.44 -0.02 0.42

2044 16.77 13.25 -3.52 ---- -0.44 -0.02 0.42

2045 16.74 13.25 -3.49 ---- -0.44 -0.02 0.42

2046 16.72 13.25 -3.46 ---- -0.44 -0.02 0.42

2047 16.69 13.25 -3.44 ---- -0.44 -0.02 0.42

2048 16.67 13.25 -3.42 ---- -0.44 -0.02 0.42

2049 16.65 13.25 -3.40 ---- -0.45 -0.02 0.42

2050 16.63 13.25 -3.38 ---- -0.45 -0.02 0.42

2051 16.62 13.25 -3.37 ---- -0.45 -0.02 0.42

2052 16.62 13.25 -3.37 ---- -0.45 -0.02 0.42

2053 16.62 13.25 -3.37 ---- -0.45 -0.02 0.42

2054 16.63 13.25 -3.38 ---- -0.45 -0.02 0.43

2055 16.64 13.25 -3.39 ---- -0.45 -0.03 0.43

2056 16.65 13.25 -3.40 ---- -0.45 -0.03 0.43

2057 16.67 13.26 -3.41 ---- -0.45 -0.03 0.43

2058 16.68 13.26 -3.42 ---- -0.46 -0.03 0.43

2059 16.69 13.26 -3.43 ---- -0.46 -0.03 0.43

2060 16.70 13.26 -3.44 ---- -0.46 -0.03 0.43

2061 16.70 13.26 -3.44 ---- -0.46 -0.03 0.43

2062 16.71 13.26 -3.45 ---- -0.46 -0.03 0.43

2063 16.72 13.26 -3.45 ---- -0.46 -0.03 0.43

2064 16.73 13.26 -3.46 ---- -0.46 -0.03 0.43

2065 16.74 13.26 -3.48 ---- -0.46 -0.03 0.44

2066 16.76 13.26 -3.49 ---- -0.46 -0.03 0.44

2067 16.78 13.27 -3.51 ---- -0.46 -0.03 0.44

2068 16.80 13.27 -3.54 ---- -0.46 -0.03 0.44

2069 16.83 13.27 -3.56 ---- -0.46 -0.03 0.44

2070 16.86 13.27 -3.59 ---- -0.46 -0.03 0.44

2071 16.89 13.27 -3.62 ---- -0.46 -0.03 0.44

2072 16.91 13.27 -3.64 ---- -0.46 -0.03 0.44

2073 16.94 13.28 -3.66 ---- -0.47 -0.03 0.44

2074 16.97 13.28 -3.69 ---- -0.47 -0.03 0.44

2075 16.99 13.28 -3.71 ---- -0.47 -0.03 0.44

2076 17.02 13.28 -3.74 ---- -0.47 -0.03 0.44

2077 17.04 13.28 -3.76 ---- -0.47 -0.03 0.44

2078 17.07 13.28 -3.78 ---- -0.47 -0.03 0.44

2079 17.10 13.29 -3.81 ---- -0.47 -0.03 0.45

2080 17.13 13.29 -3.84 ---- -0.47 -0.03 0.45

2081 17.16 13.29 -3.87 ---- -0.48 -0.03 0.45

2082 17.20 13.29 -3.91 ---- -0.48 -0.03 0.45

2083 17.24 13.30 -3.94 ---- -0.48 -0.03 0.45

2084 17.28 13.30 -3.98 ---- -0.48 -0.03 0.45

2085 17.31 13.30 -4.01 ---- -0.48 -0.03 0.45

2086 17.35 13.30 -4.05 ---- -0.48 -0.03 0.45

2087 17.39 13.30 -4.08 ---- -0.48 -0.03 0.46

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

16.32% 14.00% -2.32% 2034 -0.36% -0.02% 0.34%

1 Under present law the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2033

Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

Proposal

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll

Change from Present Law

2014 Budget Provisions for Chain-weighted CPI for OASDI COLA and Benefit (PIA) Enhancement after 14 Years of Eligibility

Year of reserve 

depletion1

Summarized Rates: OASDI

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2012 Trustees Report

July 11, 2013

Summarized Rates: OASDI

2012 - 2086

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration
Percentage

of Payroll

Annual

Amounts

Accumulated as of 

End of Year

Gross Domestic 

Product

Without General

Fund Transfers

With Plan General

Fund Transfers

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2012 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,626.1 15,439.4 2,626.1 2,626.1

2013 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,563.6 15,479.7 2,563.5 2,563.5

2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,504.0 15,668.0 2,504.0 2,504.0

2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,447.6 15,946.3 2,445.4 2,445.4

2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,395.7 16,203.4 2,389.0 2,389.0

2017 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,347.8 16,420.0 2,334.6 2,334.6

2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,300.1 16,593.0 2,278.0 2,278.0

2019 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,244.4 16,683.5 2,211.2 2,211.2

2020 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,175.4 16,728.5 2,130.5 2,130.5

2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,091.7 16,749.9 2,034.1 2,034.1

2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,990.7 16,737.3 1,919.6 1,919.6

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,872.5 16,689.8 1,787.1 1,787.1

2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,738.3 16,605.5 1,637.9 1,637.9

2025 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,589.8 16,481.0 1,473.7 1,473.7

2026 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,428.7 16,309.8 1,296.2 1,296.2

2027 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,256.0 16,115.0 1,106.7 1,106.7

2028 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,074.0 15,930.5 907.3 907.3

2029 0.0 0.0 0.0 884.4 15,741.8 700.0 700.0

2030 0.0 0.0 0.0 689.2 15,549.2 486.3 486.3

2031 0.0 0.0 0.0 490.0 15,364.4 268.0 268.0

2032 0.0 0.0 0.0 288.6 15,192.0 47.0 47.0

2033 0.0 0.0 0.0 86.4 15,025.3 -175.3 -175.3

2034 0.0 0.0 0.0 -115.4 14,863.7 -397.4 -397.4

2035 0.0 0.0 0.0 -315.7 14,704.0 -618.4 -618.4

2036 0.0 0.0 0.0 -514.1 14,544.1 -837.5 -837.5

2037 0.0 0.0 0.0 -709.9 14,387.6 -1,054.2 -1,054.2

2038 0.0 0.0 0.0 -902.6 14,234.9 -1,267.7 -1,267.7

2039 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,091.4 14,084.3 -1,477.4 -1,477.4

2040 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,276.0 13,932.5 -1,682.8 -1,682.8

2041 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,456.5 13,781.3 -1,883.9 -1,883.9

2042 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,632.8 13,632.3 -2,080.7 -2,080.7

2043 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,805.3 13,484.0 -2,273.4 -2,273.4

2044 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,974.1 13,337.1 -2,462.4 -2,462.4

2045 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,139.6 13,192.0 -2,647.8 -2,647.8

2046 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,301.7 13,045.1 -2,829.7 -2,829.7

2047 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,460.7 12,896.0 -3,008.1 -3,008.1

2048 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,616.6 12,748.1 -3,183.3 -3,183.3

2049 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,769.6 12,599.8 -3,355.4 -3,355.4

2050 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,920.0 12,452.8 -3,524.5 -3,524.5

2051 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,067.9 12,305.9 -3,691.0 -3,691.0

2052 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,213.7 12,160.4 -3,855.2 -3,855.2

2053 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,357.6 12,016.5 -4,017.4 -4,017.4

2054 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,499.9 11,873.9 -4,177.7 -4,177.7

2055 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,640.7 11,733.4 -4,336.3 -4,336.3

2056 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,780.1 11,593.6 -4,493.3 -4,493.3

2057 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,918.2 11,455.7 -4,648.9 -4,648.9

2058 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4,054.9 11,319.5 -4,802.8 -4,802.8

2059 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4,190.1 11,184.5 -4,955.1 -4,955.1

2060 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4,323.7 11,052.2 -5,105.7 -5,105.7

2061 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4,455.8 10,922.0 -5,254.5 -5,254.5

2062 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4,586.4 10,793.9 -5,401.5 -5,401.5

2063 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4,715.4 10,667.4 -5,546.9 -5,546.9

2064 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4,843.1 10,541.9 -5,690.7 -5,690.7

2065 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4,969.6 10,417.7 -5,833.1 -5,833.1

2066 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5,095.0 10,295.2 -5,974.2 -5,974.2

2067 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5,219.5 10,174.1 -6,114.2 -6,114.2

2068 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5,343.1 10,053.7 -6,253.2 -6,253.2

2069 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5,466.0 9,934.5 -6,391.2 -6,391.2

2070 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5,588.2 9,816.3 -6,528.4 -6,528.4

2071 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5,709.7 9,699.8 -6,664.6 -6,664.6

2072 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5,830.3 9,584.7 -6,799.8 -6,799.8

2073 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5,950.1 9,470.3 -6,934.1 -6,934.1

2074 0.0 0.0 0.0 -6,069.2 9,356.9 -7,067.4 -7,067.4

2075 0.0 0.0 0.0 -6,187.5 9,244.2 -7,199.8 -7,199.8

2076 0.0 0.0 0.0 -6,304.9 9,133.4 -7,331.2 -7,331.2

2077 0.0 0.0 0.0 -6,421.4 9,023.5 -7,461.5 -7,461.5

2078 0.0 0.0 0.0 -6,537.2 8,914.1 -7,591.0 -7,591.0

2079 0.0 0.0 0.0 -6,652.3 8,805.8 -7,719.6 -7,719.6

2080 0.0 0.0 0.0 -6,766.8 8,698.5 -7,847.5 -7,847.5

2081 0.0 0.0 0.0 -6,880.6 8,592.2 -7,974.6 -7,974.6

2082 0.0 0.0 0.0 -6,994.0 8,486.7 -8,101.1 -8,101.1

2083 0.0 0.0 0.0 -7,106.9 8,381.9 -8,226.9 -8,226.9

2084 0.0 0.0 0.0 -7,219.2 8,278.3 -8,352.1 -8,352.1

2085 0.0 0.0 0.0 -7,331.1 8,175.6 -8,476.6 -8,476.6

2086 0.0 0.0 0.0 -7,442.5 8,074.3 -8,600.6 -8,600.6

2087 0.0 0.0 0.0 -7,553.3 7,974.3 -8,723.8 -8,723.8

Total 2012-2086 0.0

Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2012 Trustees Report Office of the Chief Actuary

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9% Social Security Administration

July 11, 2013

Net OASDI Trust Fund Reserves at End of Year

2014 Budget Provisions for Chain-weighted CPI for OASDI COLA and Benefit (PIA) Enhancement after 14 Years of Eligibility

1

 Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption

 that the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury.

Table 1a - General Fund Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Assets, and Theoretical OASDI Assets

Calendar

Year

Proposal General Fund Transfers Present Value in Billions as of 1-1-2012

Proposal

Total OASDI

Trust Fund

Asset Reserves 

at End of Year

Theoretical Social Security1

with Borrowing Authority

Present Value in Billions as of 1-1- 2012
Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End Of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2012 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2013 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2015 0.0 2.2 2.2 -2.2 2.2 0.0 0.0

2016 0.0 4.4 4.4 -6.6 4.5 0.0 0.0

2017 0.0 6.6 6.6 -13.3 6.9 0.0 0.0

2018 0.0 8.9 8.9 -22.1 9.4 0.0 0.0

2019 0.0 11.0 11.0 -33.2 11.9 0.0 0.0

2020 0.0 11.8 11.8 -45.0 13.2 0.0 0.0

2021 0.0 12.6 12.6 -57.6 14.6 0.0 0.0

2022 0.0 13.5 13.5 -71.1 16.1 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 14.3 14.3 -85.4 17.7 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 15.0 15.0 -100.4 19.3 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 15.7 15.7 -116.2 21.0 0.0 0.0

2026 0.0 16.3 16.3 -132.5 22.7 0.0 0.0

2027 0.0 16.9 16.9 -149.3 24.1 0.0 0.0

2028 0.0 17.3 17.3 -166.7 25.5 0.0 0.0

2029 0.0 17.7 17.7 -184.4 26.9 0.0 0.0

2030 0.0 18.5 18.5 -202.9 28.6 0.0 0.0

2031 0.0 19.1 19.1 -222.0 30.2 0.0 0.0

2032 0.0 19.6 19.6 -241.6 31.8 0.0 0.0

2033 0.0 20.0 20.0 -261.7 33.2 0.0 0.0

2034 0.0 20.4 20.4 -282.0 34.7 0.0 0.0

2035 0.0 20.6 20.6 -302.6 36.0 0.0 0.0

2036 0.0 20.8 20.8 -323.4 37.3 0.0 0.0

2037 0.0 20.9 20.9 -344.2 38.5 0.0 0.0

2038 0.0 20.9 20.9 -365.1 39.7 0.0 0.0

2039 0.0 20.8 20.8 -386.0 40.8 0.0 0.0

2040 0.0 20.8 20.8 -406.7 41.8 0.0 0.0

2041 0.0 20.6 20.6 -427.4 42.9 0.0 0.0

2042 0.0 20.5 20.5 -447.8 43.8 0.0 0.0

2043 0.0 20.3 20.3 -468.1 44.8 0.0 0.0

2044 0.0 20.1 20.1 -488.3 45.7 0.0 0.0

2045 0.0 19.9 19.9 -508.2 46.6 0.0 0.0

2046 0.0 19.7 19.7 -527.9 47.5 0.0 0.0

2047 0.0 19.5 19.5 -547.4 48.3 0.0 0.0

2048 0.0 19.3 19.3 -566.7 49.2 0.0 0.0

2049 0.0 19.0 19.0 -585.7 50.0 0.0 0.0

2050 0.0 18.8 18.8 -604.5 50.8 0.0 0.0

2051 0.0 18.6 18.6 -623.2 51.6 0.0 0.0

2052 0.0 18.4 18.4 -641.6 52.5 0.0 0.0

2053 0.0 18.2 18.2 -659.8 53.3 0.0 0.0

2054 0.0 18.0 18.0 -677.8 54.1 0.0 0.0

2055 0.0 17.8 17.8 -695.6 54.9 0.0 0.0

2056 0.0 17.6 17.6 -713.2 55.7 0.0 0.0

2057 0.0 17.5 17.5 -730.7 56.4 0.0 0.0

2058 0.0 17.3 17.3 -748.0 57.2 0.0 0.0

2059 0.0 17.1 17.1 -765.1 58.0 0.0 0.0

2060 0.0 16.9 16.9 -782.0 58.7 0.0 0.0

2061 0.0 16.7 16.7 -798.7 59.4 0.0 0.0

2062 0.0 16.5 16.5 -815.2 60.2 0.0 0.0

2063 0.0 16.3 16.3 -831.5 60.9 0.0 0.0

2064 0.0 16.1 16.1 -847.6 61.6 0.0 0.0

2065 0.0 15.9 15.9 -863.5 62.2 0.0 0.0

2066 0.0 15.7 15.7 -879.2 62.9 0.0 0.0

2067 0.0 15.5 15.5 -894.7 63.6 0.0 0.0

2068 0.0 15.3 15.3 -910.1 64.2 0.0 0.0

2069 0.0 15.1 15.1 -925.2 64.9 0.0 0.0

2070 0.0 14.9 14.9 -940.1 65.5 0.0 0.0

2071 0.0 14.8 14.8 -954.9 66.2 0.0 0.0

2072 0.0 14.6 14.6 -969.5 66.8 0.0 0.0

2073 0.0 14.4 14.4 -984.0 67.4 0.0 0.0

2074 0.0 14.3 14.3 -998.2 68.1 0.0 0.0

2075 0.0 14.1 14.1 -1,012.4 68.7 0.0 0.0

2076 0.0 14.0 14.0 -1,026.3 69.3 0.0 0.0

2077 0.0 13.8 13.8 -1,040.1 69.9 0.0 0.0

2078 0.0 13.7 13.7 -1,053.8 70.5 0.0 0.0

2079 0.0 13.5 13.5 -1,067.3 71.1 0.0 0.0

2080 0.0 13.4 13.4 -1,080.7 71.7 0.0 0.0

2081 0.0 13.2 13.2 -1,094.0 72.3 0.0 0.0

2082 0.0 13.1 13.1 -1,107.1 72.9 0.0 0.0

2083 0.0 13.0 13.0 -1,120.0 73.5 0.0 0.0

2084 0.0 12.8 12.8 -1,132.9 74.0 0.0 0.0

2085 0.0 12.7 12.7 -1,145.5 74.6 0.0 0.0

2086 0.0 12.5 12.5 -1,158.1 75.2 0.0 0.0

0.0 1,158.1 1,158.1

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2012 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9% Social Security Administration

1

 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table.

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2012

2014 Budget Provisions for Chain-weighted CPI for OASDI COLA and Benefit (PIA) Enhancement after 14 Years of Eligibility

Table 1b - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1 (Present Value Dollars)

July 11, 2013

Total 2012-86
Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2012 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2013 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2015 0.0 2.5 2.5 -2.6 2.6 0.0 0.0

2016 0.0 5.3 5.3 -8.1 5.5 0.0 0.0

2017 0.0 8.3 8.3 -16.9 8.8 0.0 0.0

2018 0.0 11.5 11.5 -29.3 12.4 0.0 0.0

2019 0.0 14.9 14.9 -45.8 16.5 0.0 0.0

2020 0.0 16.6 16.6 -64.9 19.1 0.0 0.0

2021 0.0 18.6 18.6 -86.9 22.0 0.0 0.0

2022 0.0 20.7 20.7 -112.3 25.4 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 23.0 23.0 -141.7 29.3 0.0 0.0

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2012 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

July 11, 2013

1

 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table.

Billions of Nominal Dollars

Table 1b.n - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1 (Nominal Dollars)

2014 Budget Provisions for Chain-weighted CPI for OASDI COLA and Benefit (PIA) Enhancement after 14 Years of Eligibility
Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

2012 5.01 5.01 4.67 5.01 5.01 4.67

2013 5.06 5.06 4.66 5.06 5.06 4.66

2014 5.09 5.09 4.71 5.09 5.09 4.71

2015 5.10 5.10 4.73 5.08 5.08 4.73

2016 5.11 5.11 4.76 5.08 5.08 4.76

2017 5.14 5.14 4.81 5.10 5.10 4.80

2018 5.19 5.19 4.85 5.14 5.14 4.85

2019 5.28 5.28 4.87 5.21 5.21 4.87

2020 5.38 5.38 4.89 5.31 5.31 4.89

2021 5.49 5.49 4.91 5.41 5.41 4.90

2022 5.59 5.59 4.90 5.51 5.51 4.90

2023 5.70 5.70 4.90 5.60 5.60 4.89

2024 5.80 5.80 4.89 5.70 5.70 4.89

2025 5.89 5.89 4.89 5.79 5.79 4.88

2026 5.98 5.98 4.88 5.87 5.87 4.88

2027 6.06 6.06 4.88 5.95 5.95 4.87

2028 6.13 6.13 4.88 6.02 6.02 4.87

2029 6.20 6.20 4.87 6.08 6.08 4.87

2030 6.25 6.25 4.87 6.12 6.12 4.86

2031 6.29 6.29 4.87 6.16 6.16 4.86

2032 6.32 6.32 4.86 6.19 6.19 4.86

2033 6.34 5.16 4.86 6.20 6.20 4.85

2034 6.36 4.85 4.85 6.21 4.85 4.85

2035 6.36 4.85 4.85 6.21 4.84 4.84

2036 6.36 4.85 4.85 6.21 4.84 4.84

2037 6.35 4.84 4.84 6.20 4.83 4.83

2038 6.34 4.84 4.84 6.19 4.83 4.83

2039 6.33 4.83 4.83 6.17 4.82 4.82

2040 6.31 4.83 4.83 6.15 4.82 4.82

2041 6.28 4.82 4.82 6.13 4.81 4.81

2042 6.26 4.81 4.81 6.10 4.80 4.80

2043 6.24 4.81 4.81 6.08 4.80 4.80

2044 6.22 4.80 4.80 6.06 4.79 4.79

2045 6.21 4.79 4.79 6.05 4.78 4.78

2046 6.19 4.79 4.79 6.03 4.78 4.78

2047 6.17 4.78 4.78 6.01 4.77 4.77

2048 6.15 4.77 4.77 5.99 4.76 4.76

2049 6.14 4.76 4.76 5.98 4.76 4.76

2050 6.12 4.76 4.76 5.96 4.75 4.75

2051 6.11 4.75 4.75 5.95 4.74 4.74

2052 6.10 4.75 4.75 5.94 4.74 4.74

2053 6.09 4.74 4.74 5.93 4.73 4.73

2054 6.09 4.73 4.73 5.93 4.72 4.72

2055 6.08 4.73 4.73 5.92 4.72 4.72

2056 6.08 4.72 4.72 5.92 4.71 4.71

2057 6.08 4.71 4.71 5.92 4.70 4.70

2058 6.07 4.71 4.71 5.91 4.70 4.70

2059 6.07 4.70 4.70 5.91 4.69 4.69

2060 6.06 4.69 4.69 5.90 4.69 4.69

2061 6.06 4.69 4.69 5.89 4.68 4.68

2062 6.05 4.68 4.68 5.89 4.67 4.67

2063 6.05 4.68 4.68 5.88 4.67 4.67

2064 6.04 4.67 4.67 5.88 4.66 4.66

2065 6.04 4.66 4.66 5.87 4.65 4.65

2066 6.03 4.66 4.66 5.87 4.65 4.65

2067 6.03 4.65 4.65 5.87 4.64 4.64

2068 6.03 4.64 4.64 5.87 4.64 4.64

2069 6.03 4.64 4.64 5.87 4.63 4.63

2070 6.04 4.63 4.63 5.87 4.62 4.62

2071 6.04 4.63 4.63 5.88 4.62 4.62

2072 6.04 4.62 4.62 5.88 4.61 4.61

2073 6.04 4.62 4.62 5.88 4.61 4.61

2074 6.04 4.61 4.61 5.88 4.60 4.60

2075 6.04 4.61 4.61 5.88 4.60 4.60

2076 6.04 4.60 4.60 5.88 4.59 4.59

2077 6.05 4.59 4.59 5.88 4.59 4.59

2078 6.05 4.59 4.59 5.89 4.58 4.58

2079 6.05 4.59 4.59 5.89 4.58 4.58

2080 6.06 4.58 4.58 5.89 4.57 4.57

2081 6.06 4.58 4.58 5.90 4.57 4.57

2082 6.07 4.57 4.57 5.91 4.56 4.56

2083 6.08 4.57 4.57 5.91 4.56 4.56

2084 6.08 4.57 4.57 5.92 4.56 4.56

2085 6.09 4.56 4.56 5.93 4.55 4.55

2086 6.10 4.56 4.56 5.93 4.55 4.55

2014 Budget Provisions for Chain-weighted CPI for OASDI COLA and Benefit (PIA) Enhancement after 14 Years of Eligibility

Table 1c - Present Law and Proposal Cost, Expenditures, and Income: As Percent of Gross Domestic Product

July 11, 2013

Social Security Administration

Present Law OASDI Proposal OASDI

Calendar

Year

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2012 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary
Year

Present Law OASDI

Trust Fund Assets /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Total Change

Through

End of Year

Proposal OASDI

Trust Fund Assets /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) = cumulative sum(4) (6) = (1)+(5)

2012 2,626.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,626.1

2013 2,563.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,563.6

2014 2,504.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,504.0

2015 2,445.4 -0.1 -2.3 2.2 2.2 2,447.6

2016 2,389.0 -0.2 -4.6 4.4 6.6 2,395.7

2017 2,334.6 -0.3 -7.0 6.6 13.3 2,347.8

2018 2,278.0 -0.5 -9.3 8.9 22.1 2,300.1

2019 2,211.2 -0.6 -11.6 11.0 33.2 2,244.4

2020 2,130.5 -0.6 -12.4 11.8 45.0 2,175.4

2021 2,034.1 -0.7 -13.3 12.6 57.6 2,091.7

2022 1,919.6 -0.7 -14.2 13.5 71.1 1,990.7

2023 1,787.1 -0.8 -15.1 14.3 85.4 1,872.5

2024 1,637.9 -0.8 -15.9 15.0 100.4 1,738.3

2025 1,473.7 -0.9 -16.6 15.7 116.2 1,589.8

2026 1,296.2 -0.9 -17.2 16.3 132.5 1,428.7

2027 1,106.7 -0.9 -17.8 16.9 149.3 1,256.0

2028 907.3 -1.0 -18.3 17.3 166.7 1,074.0

2029 700.0 -1.0 -18.8 17.7 184.4 884.4

2030 486.3 -1.1 -19.5 18.5 202.9 689.2

2031 268.0 -1.1 -20.2 19.1 222.0 490.0

2032 47.0 -1.1 -20.7 19.6 241.6 288.6

2033 -175.3 -1.2 -21.2 20.0 261.7 86.4

2034 -397.4 -1.2 -21.5 20.4 282.0 -115.4

2035 -618.4 -1.2 -21.8 20.6 302.6 -315.7

2036 -837.5 -1.2 -22.0 20.8 323.4 -514.1

2037 -1,054.2 -1.2 -22.1 20.9 344.2 -709.9

2038 -1,267.7 -1.2 -22.1 20.9 365.1 -902.6

2039 -1,477.4 -1.2 -22.1 20.8 386.0 -1,091.4

2040 -1,682.8 -1.2 -22.0 20.8 406.7 -1,276.0

2041 -1,883.9 -1.2 -21.8 20.6 427.4 -1,456.5

2042 -2,080.7 -1.2 -21.7 20.5 447.8 -1,632.8

2043 -2,273.4 -1.2 -21.5 20.3 468.1 -1,805.3

2044 -2,462.4 -1.2 -21.3 20.1 488.3 -1,974.1

2045 -2,647.8 -1.2 -21.1 19.9 508.2 -2,139.6

2046 -2,829.7 -1.2 -20.9 19.7 527.9 -2,301.7

2047 -3,008.1 -1.1 -20.6 19.5 547.4 -2,460.7

2048 -3,183.3 -1.1 -20.4 19.3 566.7 -2,616.6

2049 -3,355.4 -1.1 -20.2 19.0 585.7 -2,769.6

2050 -3,524.5 -1.1 -19.9 18.8 604.5 -2,920.0

2051 -3,691.0 -1.1 -19.7 18.6 623.2 -3,067.9

2052 -3,855.2 -1.1 -19.5 18.4 641.6 -3,213.7

2053 -4,017.4 -1.1 -19.3 18.2 659.8 -3,357.6

2054 -4,177.7 -1.1 -19.1 18.0 677.8 -3,499.9

2055 -4,336.3 -1.1 -18.9 17.8 695.6 -3,640.7

2056 -4,493.3 -1.0 -18.7 17.6 713.2 -3,780.1

2057 -4,648.9 -1.0 -18.5 17.5 730.7 -3,918.2

2058 -4,802.8 -1.0 -18.3 17.3 748.0 -4,054.9

2059 -4,955.1 -1.0 -18.1 17.1 765.1 -4,190.1

2060 -5,105.7 -1.0 -17.9 16.9 782.0 -4,323.7

2061 -5,254.5 -1.0 -17.7 16.7 798.7 -4,455.8

2062 -5,401.5 -1.0 -17.5 16.5 815.2 -4,586.4

2063 -5,546.9 -1.0 -17.3 16.3 831.5 -4,715.4

2064 -5,690.7 -1.0 -17.1 16.1 847.6 -4,843.1

2065 -5,833.1 -0.9 -16.9 15.9 863.5 -4,969.6

2066 -5,974.2 -0.9 -16.6 15.7 879.2 -5,095.0

2067 -6,114.2 -0.9 -16.4 15.5 894.7 -5,219.5

2068 -6,253.2 -0.9 -16.2 15.3 910.1 -5,343.1

2069 -6,391.2 -0.9 -16.0 15.1 925.2 -5,466.0

2070 -6,528.4 -0.9 -15.8 14.9 940.1 -5,588.2

2071 -6,664.6 -0.9 -15.7 14.8 954.9 -5,709.7

2072 -6,799.8 -0.9 -15.5 14.6 969.5 -5,830.3

2073 -6,934.1 -0.9 -15.3 14.4 984.0 -5,950.1

2074 -7,067.4 -0.9 -15.1 14.3 998.2 -6,069.2

2075 -7,199.8 -0.8 -15.0 14.1 1,012.4 -6,187.5

2076 -7,331.2 -0.8 -14.8 14.0 1,026.3 -6,304.9

2077 -7,461.5 -0.8 -14.6 13.8 1,040.1 -6,421.4

2078 -7,591.0 -0.8 -14.5 13.7 1,053.8 -6,537.2

2079 -7,719.6 -0.8 -14.3 13.5 1,067.3 -6,652.3

2080 -7,847.5 -0.8 -14.2 13.4 1,080.7 -6,766.8

2081 -7,974.6 -0.8 -14.0 13.2 1,094.0 -6,880.6

2082 -8,101.1 -0.8 -13.9 13.1 1,107.1 -6,994.0

2083 -8,226.9 -0.8 -13.7 13.0 1,120.0 -7,106.9

2084 -8,352.1 -0.8 -13.6 12.8 1,132.9 -7,219.2

2085 -8,476.6 -0.8 -13.4 12.7 1,145.5 -7,331.1

2086 -8,600.6 -0.8 -13.3 12.5 1,158.1 -7,442.5

Total 2012-2086 -67.6 -1225.7 1158.1

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2012 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%. July 11, 2013

(Billions of Dollars, Present Value on 1-1-2012)

Table 1d - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Assets / Unfunded Obligation

2014 Budget Provisions for Chain-weighted CPI for OASDI COLA and Benefit (PIA) Enhancement after 14 Years of Eligibility