SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE, MD 21235-0001

December 1, 2010 

Mr. Erskine Bowles, Co-Chair

Mr. Alan Simpson, Co-Chair

National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform

1650 Pennsylvania Ave., NW

Washington, DC 20504 

Dear Mr. Bowles and Mr. Simpson: 

I am writing in response to your request for estimates of the financial effects on Social Security 

of the National Commission’s plan that is released today. We have worked closely with Bruce 

Reed, Marc Goldwein, Meaghan Mann, Ed Lorenzen, and other members of your team to gain 

an understanding of the provisions and implications of the plan. The plan would make numerous 

changes to the Social Security Act and to a broad range of general tax provisions that have 

implications for the financial status of the OASDI program. The plan specifies eight provisions 

with direct effects on OASDI program benefits and tax revenues. We are providing detailed and 

summary estimates of the effects of these basic provisions individually and as a group. In 

addition, the plan makes recommendations for changes in general tax provisions that would be 

expected to have indirect effects on the financial status of the OASDI program. We are 

providing only summary estimates on a very preliminary basis for the effects on the OASDI 

program of two potential outcomes from the tax reform recommendations. These preliminary 

estimates may be revised based on further clarification of the tax provisions in the coming days.

In the enclosed tables, we are providing estimates of the effects of the basic Social Security plan 

provisions on the cost, income, and trust fund assets for the OASDI program, as well as the 

estimated effects on retired worker benefit levels for selected hypothetical worker cases. In 

particular, the unified budget analysis, shown in tables 1b and 1b.n, does not reflect all of the 

Commission plan provisions. These tables reflect the unified budget implications of only the 

basic Social Security plan provisions with significant direct effects on the actuarial status of the 

OASDI program. For example, the revenue effects for the on-budget (which excludes Social 

Security) of the various tax provisions are not reflected in this analysis. All estimates are based 

on the intermediate assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report. 

The estimates provided here reflect extraordinary effort by many in the Office of the Chief 

Actuary under substantial time pressure, but most particularly Alice Wade, Christopher 

Chaplain, Daniel Nickerson, Tiffany Bosley, and Michael Clingman.
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The Commission plan includes the following eight basic provisions that have significant direct 

effects on the OASDI program financial operations and actuarial status:

1) After 2022, index the normal retirement age (NRA) to maintain a constant ratio of (a) life 

expectancy at NRA to (b) potential work years (NRA-20). Maintain the earliest 

eligibility age (EEA) at NRA-5. Increases in the EEA and NRA would be limited. 

Consistent with this intent, the following provision is included as a potential limitation. 

For individuals who have earned 4 quarters of coverage in 25 years before age 62, retain 

the EEA and NRA at 62 and 67, respectively, if AIME is under 250 percent of aged 

poverty (wage indexed from 2009), with this limitation phased out completely if AIME is 

over 400 percent of aged poverty. 

2) Create a new bend point in the PIA formula at the AIME for the 50th percentile of new 

retired worker awards. Over the period 2017-2050, gradually reduce the 32 percent PIA 

factor that applied below the new bend point to 30 percent, the 32 percent PIA factor that 

applies above the new bend point to 10 percent, and the 15 percent PIA factor to 5 

percent. 

3) Change the OASDI cost of living adjustment (COLA) to be based on a chained version of 

the Consumer Price Index (CPI-W) starting for December 2011.

4) Beginning in 2017, increase the special minimum benefit by making the following 

changes. (a) A year of coverage is defined as a year in which 4 quarters of coverage are 

earned. (b) The minimum PIA for 30 years of coverage is equal to 125 percent of the 

monthly poverty level (indexed by chained CPI from 2009 to 2017 and by average wage 

thereafter, for successive cohorts). (c) The minimum PIA is zero for 10 or fewer years of 

coverage, and increases linearly for 11 through 30 years of coverage. (d) Scale year of 

coverage requirements for disabled workers based on years of potential work.

5) Effective for all beneficiaries in 2011 and later, provide a 5 percent increase in PIA 

phased in over the 20th through 24th years after initial benefit eligibility. The total 

increase in PIA is 5 percent of the PIA for a worker of the same age with earnings at the 

average (AWI) at ages 22 through 61. 

6) Increase the OASDI contribution and benefit base (taxable maximum) by an additional 2 

percent each year starting in 2012, until 90 percent of covered earnings are taxable. 

Additional increases are expected for 38 years, reaching 90 percent taxable for 2049 and 

later. Establish starting in 2013 a new PIA bend point at the monthly equivalent of the 

taxable maximum that would be determined without regard to this provision, with a 

benefit formula factor of 5 percent for AIME above this new bend point. 

7) Allow retirees to start receiving up to one-half of their benefits at age 62 with the 

remainder not available until EEA. Actuarial reduction applies accordingly. 

8) Cover earnings of all state and local government employees hired in 2021 and later.

In addition, the Commission plan includes recommendations for comprehensive tax reform. 

While these recommendations would not directly affect OASDI benefits and tax revenue, they 

would, if implemented, have significant indirect effects. The Commission recommendation calls 

for a fast-track process to enact fundamental tax reform by 2012. The Commission provides an 

illustrative tax reform plan to serve as a model. In addition, the Commission recommends a failsafe plan that would take effect automatically if the Congress does not enact comprehensive tax 

reform that meets specified targets by 2013. Subsequent sections of this letter describe the 
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illustrative tax reform option and the fail-safe option and provide preliminary estimates of their 

potential impact on the actuarial status of the OASDI program. 

The balance of this letter provides a summary of the effects of the plan on the actuarial status of 

the OASDI program, our understanding of the specifications of each plan provision, the 

estimated effects on OASDI actuarial status, and a description of our detailed financial results.

Summary of Effects of Basic Social Security Provisions on OASDI Actuarial Status

Figure 1 below illustrates the expected change in the combined Old-Age and Survivors Insurance 

(OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund assets, expressed as a percent of annual 

program cost, assuming enactment of the eight basic Social Security provisions of the plan. 

Assuming enactment, the OASDI program would be expected to be solvent for the next 75 years, 

under the intermediate assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report. The level of assets for the 

theoretical combined OASI and DI Trust Funds would decline from a current level of 355 

percent of annual program cost to 140 percent of annual cost in 2047. Thereafter, the trust funds 

would rise, reaching 290 percent of annual program cost by the end of 2084. The combined 

assets would be rising as a percentage of the annual cost of the program at the end of the period. 

Thus, the OASDI program would meet the requirements for sustainable solvency under the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report with enactment of the eight basic Social 

Security provisions of the Commission plan. 

Note: Trust Fund Ratio for a given year is the ratio of assets in the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds at the 

beginning of the year to the cost of the program during the year.

Figure 1. Present Law and Commission Plan (Basic Social Security Provisions Only): 

OASDI Trust Fund Assets as Percent of Annual Cost: 2010 TR Intermediate Assumptions

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Trust Fund Ratio

Present Law Trust Fund Ratio

Proposal
4

Enactment of the eight basic Social Security provisions of the plan would eliminate the longrange OASDI actuarial deficit of 1.92 percent of taxable payroll under current law, and would 

result in a positive OASDI actuarial balance of 0.23 percent of payroll for the long-range period. 

Figure 2 below illustrates annual projected levels of cost, expenditures, and tax income as a 

percent of the current-law level of taxable payroll. The projected levels of cost reflect the full 

cost of present-law scheduled benefits. After trust fund exhaustion, projected expenditures under 

current law include only amounts payable when less than cost. Under the basic Social Security 

provisions of the proposed plan, the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds would not be expected 

to exhaust, so payable benefits (expenditures) equal scheduled benefits over the 75-year 

projection period.

Aggregate OASDI program cost is reduced under the eight basic Social Security provisions of 

the proposed plan after 2014 and tax income is increased after 2011. The annual tax revenue for 

the OASDI program is projected to exceed the projected cost after 2051, providing positive net 

cash flow through 2084 and beyond. In present value terms (see Table 1d), about 46 percent of 

the improvement in the actuarial status of the OASDI Trust Funds through 2084 is due to 

increased tax revenue, and about 54 percent of the improvement is due to a net reduction in 

benefit cost. However, the net reduction in benefit cost results from partially offsetting effects 

on benefits from provisions that (a) generally reduce benefit levels (such as changes in the PIA 

formula and in COLAs), and (b) increase total benefits based on the expansion of the payroll tax 

base (such as increasing the taxable maximum and covering all state and local government 

employment). If provisions that expand the payroll tax base are considered as changes in 

Figure 2. Commission Plan (Basic Social Security Provisions Only) and Present Law Cost and Tax 

Income as Percent of Taxable Payroll: 2010 TR Intermediate Assumptions

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Percent of Present-Law Taxable Payroll

Present Law Tax Income

Present Law Cost

Present Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Tax Income
5

revenue based on their net effect, then the overall change in the long-range actuarial balance is 

about 63 percent from provisions that directly affect benefit levels, and about 37 percent from the 

net effects of provisions intended to increase the payroll tax base. By the end of the 75-year 

period, 2084, about 82 percent of the change in the annual balance for the OASDI program is 

accomplished under the plan with provisions that directly affect benefit levels. 

It is also useful to consider the projected cost and income for the OASDI program expressed as a 

percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The graph below illustrates these levels under 

both current law and the eight basic Social Security provisions of this proposed plan. 

Figure 3. Commission Plan (Basic Social Security Provisions Only) and Present Law Cost and Tax 

Income as Percent of GDP: 2010 TR Intermediate Assumptions

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Percent of GDP

Present Law Tax Income

Present Law Cost

Present Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Tax Income
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Plan Specification for Provisions Affecting the Social Security Actuarial Status

A. Basic Provisions with Direct Effects on Social Security Benefit Levels and Tax Revenue

The Commission recommends eight basic provisions that would have direct effects on the Social 

Security actuarial status. These basic provisions are expected to restore sustainable solvency for 

the program. The following analysis describes these provisions and indicates their estimated 

effects if enacted on an individual basis.

(1) Index Normal Retirement Age after 2022; Increase Earliest Eligibility Age

 

Under current law, the normal retirement age (NRA) will increase to 67 for those attaining 62 in 

2022 and later. No further change in program parameters to reflect continuing increases in 

longevity is currently scheduled in the law. This provision would index the NRA to increase for 

those attaining age 62 after 2022 at a rate sufficient to maintain a constant ratio of (a) expected 

retirement years (life expectancy at NRA) to (b) potential working years (NRA-20) at the level 

for 2022. Period unisex life expectancy based on Social Security/Medicare data would be used 

for these calculations, reflecting the change from 2018 to the fourth year prior to the year age 62 

is attained. This approach would effectively offset the effect of increasing old-age life 

expectancy on the cost of the OASDI program relative to the payroll tax base. Under the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report, the NRA would be expected to increase 

by one month for every 2 years after 2022. 

In addition, this provision would maintain after 2022 the earliest eligibility age (EEA) for retired 

worker benefits (currently 62) at 5 years below the NRA for each worker. We assume that 

increasing the EEA would increase the indexing year and the computation period in the PIA 

formula, with earnings indexed for the AIME to 2 years before the year of initial eligibility. 

However, we assume that the fully-insured requirement would not be changed. Disabled worker 

benefits would continue to be payable from the Disability Insurance Trust Fund until conversion 

to retired worker status at NRA. 

The Commission intends to limit the increase in the EEA and NRA for those who would find 

continued work most difficult after attaining age 62. One viable approach for accomplishing this 

would be to limit the increase in retirement ages for low earners with long careers prior to 

reaching age 62. This approach is included in the specification of this provision. Specifically, 

increases in the EEA and NRA would be limited for workers with at least 25 years of coverage 

(years having earned 4 quarters of coverage) before age 62 and AIME (computed at age 62) of 

less than 400 percent of the Federal Aged Poverty level. For this provision, the Federal Census 

Aged Poverty Level for 2009 would be indexed by the AWI up to age 60 (i.e., the second year 

prior to potential initial eligibility). For qualifying workers with age 62 AIME below 250 

percent of the indexed poverty level, no increase in the EEA and NRA above the current law 

levels of 62 and 67, respectively, would apply. For workers with age 62 AIME between 250 

percent and 300 percent, 300 percent and 350 percent, and 350 percent and 400 percent of the 

indexed poverty level, 25 percent, 50 percent, and 75 percent of the full increase in the EEA and 

NRA, respectively, would apply, rounded to the nearest month in each case. 
7

This provision alone is estimated to reduce the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit by 0.34 

percent of taxable payroll and to reduce the annual deficit for the 75th projection year (2084) by 

1.22 percent of payroll.

(2) Modify the PIA Formula

 

Under current law, the PIA formula provides a basic monthly benefit of 90 percent of the AIME 

up to the first bend point (BP1= $761 for workers newly eligible in 2010), 32 percent of AIME 

between the first bend point and the second bend point (BP2 = $4,586 for workers newly eligible 

in 2010), and 15 percent for AIME above the second bend point. This provision would introduce 

a new bend point at the 50th percentile level of AIME for newly eligible beneficiaries, starting in 

2017. (The new bend point would be 61.5 percent of the way up from BP1 to BP2, or at a level 

equivalent to about $3,000 for workers newly eligible in 2010). The PIA factor applicable 

between BP1 and the new bend point would be gradually decreased for all beneficiaries from 32 

percent to 30 percent over the period 2017 through 2050. The PIA factor applicable for AIME 

between the new bend point and BP2 would be gradually reduced from 32 percent to 10 percent 

over the period 2017 through 2050. The PIA factor applicable for AIME over BP2 would be 

gradually reduced from 15 percent to 5 percent over the same period. 

This provision alone is estimated to reduce the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit by 0.86 

percent of taxable payroll and to reduce the annual deficit for the 75th projection year (2084) by 

2.12 percent of payroll.

(3) Base the COLA on a Chain-Weighted CPI

The OASDI automatic cost of living adjustment (COLA) that applies for benefit increases after 

the year of initial benefit eligibility is currently based on the increase in the Consumer Price 

Index for Urban Wage and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). The CPI-W was the only CPI series 

produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) when the COLA was enacted into law in 1972. 

The CPI-W computes price increases for a broad market basket of goods and services from 

month to month, with revisions to the weights in the market basket every two years. Thus, 

monthly increases in the CPI-W represent a pure measure of increase in price levels without 

reflecting the effects of shifts that tend to occur across broad strata of different classes of goods 

and services, when their price levels rise at different rates. Historical data show that for all 

consumers in the economy in aggregate, the relative quantity of goods and services tends to 

increase for strata where prices have risen less, and relative quantity tends to decrease for strata 

where prices have risen more. 

The BLS has developed a chain-weighted formula to estimate the effects of the changes in the 

distribution of consumer purchases in real time, and to reflect this phenomenon in lower overall 

increases in the price level for the variable market basket. This formula has been implemented 

for the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) since 2000, and this alternative 

chain-weighted version has had the average effect of lowering measured price increases by about 

0.3 percentage point per year on average. 
8

This provision would apply a chain-weighted approach for the CPI-W in computing the COLA 

for December 2011 and later. We estimate that this change would reduce the size of future 

COLAs by 0.3 percentage point on average. This provision alone is estimated to reduce the 

long-range OASDI actuarial deficit by 0.50 percent of taxable payroll and to reduce the annual 

deficit for the 75th projection year (2084) by 0.70 percent of payroll. 

(4) Enhance the Special Minimum Benefit for Long-Career Low Earners

The current-law special minimum benefit has little effect currently because the level of benefit 

provided has been indexed from one generation of new beneficiaries to the next by increases in 

the CPI. Starting in 2017, this provision would enhance the special minimum benefit to provide 

a PIA level at benefit eligibility equivalent to 125 percent of the 2009 Federal Poverty threshold 

for individuals with at least 30 coverage years. The poverty level used for this provision is the 

HHS Federal poverty level for 2009, indexed by chained CPI from 2009 to 2017, and indexed by 

the increase in the average wage indexing series (AWI) thereafter. For this provision, a coverage 

year is defined as a year in which earnings were sufficient to earn 4 quarters of coverage. No 

minimum benefit would be provided for workers with 10 or fewer coverage years. The level of 

the minimum would be scaled up linearly between 10 and 30 coverage years, with 5 percent of 

the full minimum available for each coverage year in excess of 10 coverage years. The required 

number of coverage years would be scaled (lowered based on years from ages 22 to 61 alive and 

not disabled) for workers becoming disabled or dying before attaining age 62. This provision 

alone is estimated to increase the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit by 0.15 percent of taxable 

payroll and to increase the annual deficit for the 75th projection year (2084) by 0.26 percent of 

payroll.

(5) Increase Benefits Starting 20 Years after Initial Eligibility 

This provision would provide for a gradual increase in PIA for the 20th through 24th years after 

initially becoming eligible for benefits. The increase would apply for all beneficiaries in 2011 

and later. The PIA upon which their benefit is based will be increased for the 20th year of 

eligibility by 1 percent of the PIA amount for a worker of the same age who has earnings equal 

to the average (AWI) starting at age 20, up through the year prior to initial benefit eligibility. 

The PIA will be further increased by an additional 1 percent of the AWI-earner’s PIA in the 21st

through 24th years of eligibility. The total 5 percent increase will continue to apply in the 25th

and later years of eligibility. This provision alone is estimated to increase the long-range 

OASDI actuarial deficit by 0.15 percent of taxable payroll and to increase the annual deficit for 

the 75th projection year (2084) by 0.23 percent of payroll.

(6) Increase the OASDI Taxable Maximum Earnings Amount

Under current law, the OASDI contribution and benefit base (taxable maximum) is $106,800 for 

2010 earnings in OASDI covered employment, and will be indexed to the growth rate in the 

average economy-wide wage level (AWI) in the future. The percentage of covered earnings that 

is below the base was 90 percent in 1983, was about 85 percent in 2009, and is projected to be 

82.5 percent for 2019 and later under the intermediate assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report. 

This provision would, beginning with 2012, increase the taxable maximum by an additional 2 
9

percent over the increase in the AWI each year until 90 percent of covered earnings are once 

again below the maximum and are subject to the payroll tax. Thereafter, the maximum would be 

increased at the rate needed to maintain 90 percent of covered earnings taxable. We estimate 

that the additional 2 percent increase will be needed for 38 years, so that the goal of taxing 90 

percent of covered earnings would be achieved for 2049 and later. 

All earnings subject to the payroll tax under this provision would be credited to the earnings 

records of workers and used in computing the average indexed monthly earnings (AIME) on 

which the basic benefit (PIA) is based. However, for beneficiaries becoming newly eligible for 

benefits in 2013 or later, a new bend point in the PIA formula would be established at the 

monthly equivalent of the contribution and benefit base that would be determined without regard 

to this provision. A PIA factor of 5 percent would apply for any amount of a worker’s AIME 

above the new bend point. 

This provision alone is estimated to reduce the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit by 0.67 

percent of taxable payroll and to reduce the annual deficit for the 75th projection year (2084) by 

0.90 percent of payroll. 

 

(7) Allow up to Half of Benefits at Age 62

Under this provision, all beneficiaries subject to an increase in the EEA and NRA under 

provision (1) would be allowed to start receiving up to one-half of the benefit for which they 

would be eligible at age 62. For those selecting this option, the PIA formula applicable for age 

62 would apply for the portion of benefit commencing at that age. Additional actuarial reduction 

would apply for the portion of benefit taken at age 62, based on the NRA in effect at the time. 

The other half of the benefit can be taken at EEA or later. The retirement earnings test that 

applies for all beneficiaries below NRA would apply for benefits taken under this option. This 

provision alone is estimated to have a negligible effect on the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit 

and on the annual deficit for the 75th projection year (2084).

(8) Cover State and Local Government Employment

Currently, earnings of about 25 percent of state and local government employees are not covered 

under the OASDI program. This represents about 4 percent of the total U.S. workforce. This 

provision would cover earnings of all state and local government employees hired in 2021 and 

later under OASDI. This provision alone is estimated to reduce the long-range OASDI actuarial 

deficit by 0.16 percent of taxable payroll and to increase the annual deficit for the 75th projection 

year (2084) by 0.12 percent of payroll. 

B. Provisions of Illustrative Individual Tax Reform Plan

The Commission recommends enactment of comprehensive tax reform before 2013, and 

provides an illustrative reform plan that would meet specified objectives for overall unified 

budget deficit reduction. The analysis below provides a brief description of key provisions that 

would be expected to have significant indirect effects on OASDI financing and very preliminary 

estimates of the effect on the actuarial status of the OASDI program. When combined with the 
10

estimated effects for the eight basic Social Security provisions, the effects of the illustrative tax 

reform plan are very roughly estimated to result in a positive OASDI actuarial balance of 0.09 

percent of payroll with a combined trust fund level of about 170 percent of program cost in 2084 

and rising. Thus, the overall Commission plan would still achieve sustainable solvency for the 

OASDI program assuming enactment of the illustrative tax reform plan.

(1) Apply OASDI Payroll Tax to Premiums for Employer Sponsored Group Health Insurance

Currently, premiums for employer sponsored group health insurance (ESI) are generally not 

included in earnings subject to the OASDI payroll tax or personal income tax. However, the 

Affordable Care Act (ACA) enacted in March establishes, effective in 2018, a 40 percent excise 

tax on total ESI premiums in excess of specified thresholds. 

This provision would make the total premium for ESI, including the portion paid directly by the 

employer and the portion paid by the employee (through a section 125 plan or otherwise), 

included in earnings subject to the personal income tax by 2038, but not subject to payroll tax for 

either employer and employee. ESI premiums in excess of specified thresholds (at the 75th

percentile of premiums for ESI) would be subject to personal income tax starting in 2014, with 

these thresholds remaining unchanged through 2018, and then gradually reduced to zero by 

2038. This provision would also lower the excise tax on ESI premiums that was enacted in the 

ACA from 40 to 12 percent. This provision alone is estimated on a very preliminary basis to 

have a negligible effect on the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit and on the annual deficit for 

the 75th projection year (2084). The net annual effects of the components of this provision are 

expected to vary over the 75-year projection period, but the aggregate effect for the period as a 

whole is not expected to be substantial. 

(2) Personal Income Tax Reform 

The federal personal income tax structure would be broadened with a significant reduction in the 

marginal rates starting in 2012. Personal income tax would apply to three brackets with marginal 

rates of 12 percent (replacing 15 percent), 21 percent (replacing 28 percent and 31 percent), and 

28 percent (replacing 36 percent and 39.6 percent). The standard deduction and personal and 

dependent exemptions would be retained. However, many categories of deductions and 

exclusions would be limited or eliminated. Dividends and capital gains (other than from sale of 

one’s home) would be included as regular income. With the level of detail available at this time, 

it is difficult to develop an estimate of the effect of these changes. Thus, the estimate provided 

here is very preliminary and subject to change as more information becomes available on the

precise provisions. Overall, however, the lower marginal tax rates are expected to have a large 

effect on taxation of OASDI benefits, reducing revenue from taxation of OASDI benefits by 

roughly 20 percent. This provision alone is estimated on a very preliminary basis to increase the 

long-range OASDI actuarial deficit by 0.16 percent of taxable payroll and to increase the annual 

deficit for the 75th projection year (2084) by 0.19 percent of current law taxable payroll. 
11

C. Provisions of Fail-Safe Tax Reform Plan

The Commission recommends enactment of comprehensive tax reform before 2013, and 

provides a fail-safe plan that that it believes should be implemented automatically in 2013 should 

the Congress not enact a comprehensive tax reform plan by that time. The fail-safe plan would 

require roughly 10-percent across-the-board reductions in (1) itemized deductions, (2) above-theline deductions, (3) credits for individuals, (4) the exclusion for employer-provided health care, 

and (5) general business credits. From the brief description of the fail-safe plan in the 

Commission report, we cannot determine whether these reductions would apply just for personal 

and corporate income tax provisions, as do the provisions of the illustrative tax reform plan. If

these reductions in exclusions for health care premiums and costs also apply to payroll taxable 

income and the excise tax on employer sponsored health insurance premiums is not reduced, 

then this fail-safe plan would be expected to have a small positive effect on the actuarial status of 

the OASDI program. With the level of detail provided, we cannot provide even a rough 

preliminary estimate of the effect of the fail-safe plan. 

 

Detailed Financial Results for the Basic Social Security Provisions 

Summary Results by Provision

Table A provides estimates of the effects on the OASDI long-range actuarial balance for each of 

the eight basic Social Security provisions of the proposed plan separately and on a combined 

basis. Summary estimates are also provided for the effect on the annual balance (the difference 

between income rate and the cost rate, expressed as a percent of present-law taxable payroll) for 

the 75th projection year, 2084. 

Benefit Illustrations

Tables B1 and B2 provide illustrative examples of the projected change in benefit levels under 

the eight basic Social Security provisions of this proposed plan for beneficiaries retiring at age 

65 in future years at various earnings levels. Table B1 compares the initial benefit levels under 

the proposed plan to both scheduled and payable present-law benefit levels. Table B1 illustrates 

that benefits projected for the scaled very low, low, and medium earners retiring after 2037 are 

higher under the proposed plan than are projected to be payable under current law. 

Table B2 compares the change in benefit levels at ages 65, 75, 85, and 95 to scheduled benefits 

under present law. Table B2 shows that projected benefits under the basic Social Security 

proposed plan tend to decline in relation to present-law scheduled benefits between ages 65 and 

75, and also between ages 85 and 95, because of the provision to use the chain-weighted CPI for 

the COLA. Between ages 75 and 85, the benefit under the proposed plan grows faster than the 

current law benefit for scaled medium and lower earners, because the increase for the 20th

through 24th years of eligibility is more than the reduction in the COLA between ages 75 and 85. 

For scaled high and steady maximum earners, proposal benefits grow slower than current law 

benefits between ages 75 and 85, because the earliest eligibility age (EEA) at that point is 

increased significantly above 62.
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It is important to note that the hypothetical workers represented in these tables reflect the average 

career earnings patterns of workers who started receiving retirement benefits under the Social 

Security program in recent years. While many workers have gaps in their careers, the 

hypothetical workers represented in these tables are assumed to have earnings at some level, 

consistently, from their early 20’s until the year before retirement at age 65. As a result, the 

hypothetical workers reflected here all have long careers, and thus the low and very low scaled 

earners qualify for the limitation on increased retirement ages and for the full minimum benefit. 

For example, workers with career average AIME equal to the level of the low and very low 

scaled earners, but with less than 25 years of work at the level needed to earn four quarters of 

coverage, would be subject to the full reduction in benefit for longevity indexing the NRA shown 

for high and maximum earners. Only about 20 percent of recent retirees with AIME closest to 

the scaled very low earner, and about 70 percent of recent retirees with AIME nearest the low 

scaled earner, had 25 or more years of earnings sufficient to earn four quarters of coverage. 

However, some of these individuals may be dually eligible for spouse benefits or for widow 

benefits at some point in the future.

The illustrations in Tables B1 and B2 do not reflect the implications of the various tax changes in 

the overall Commission plan. The effects of these tax provisions are complex and difficult to 

model at the individual level. 

Trust Fund Operations

Table 1 shows the annual cost and income rates, annual balances, and trust fund ratios (assets as 

percent of annual program cost) for OASDI assuming enactment of all of the provisions of the 

plan. This table also shows the change from present law in these cost rates, income rates, and 

balances. Included at the bottom of this table are summarized rates for the 75-year long-range 

period. 

Table 1 indicates that the OASDI program is projected to be solvent throughout the 75-year 

projection period assuming enactment of the plan provisions. After 2048, the trust fund ratio is 

projected to rise steadily, reaching 290 percent of the next year’s annual program cost at the end 

of the 75-year projection period. The actuarial deficit for the OASDI program over the 75-year 

projection period would be eliminated and replaced by a positive actuarial balance estimated at 

0.23 percent of taxable payroll.

Annual balances are projected to be small positive amounts starting in 2052 and lasting through 

2084, with current program tax revenue exceeding current program cost. 

Program Transfers and Assets

Column 4 of Table 1a provides a projection of the asset level for the combined OASI and DI 

Trust Funds under the proposed plan, expressed in present value dollars discounted to January 1, 

2010. The table indicates that the plan includes no new specified transfers of general revenue to 

the trust funds. For purpose of comparison, the net OASDI Trust Fund assets, expressed in 

present value dollars, are also shown for a theoretical Social Security program where borrowing 
13

authority is assumed for the trust funds. Under current law, no such borrowing authority exists. 

Gross Domestic Product (GDP), expressed in present value dollars, is shown in column 6 for 

comparison with other values in the table. 

Effect of Basic Social Security Provisions on the Federal Unified Budget

Table 1b shows the projected effect, in present value discounted dollars, on the Federal unified 

budget cash flows and balances, assuming enactment of the basic Social Security provisions of 

the plan that we have specifically scored as having significant effects on the OASDI program 

actuarial status. The potential effects on the on-budget from the tax-reform provisions are not 

reflected in these estimates. Table 1b.n provides the estimated nominal dollar effect of 

enactment of the specified provisions of the plan on the annual unified budget balances for years 

2010 through 2019. All values in these tables represent the amount of the change from the level 

that would be projected under current law due to enactment of the specified provisions. 

The effect of the basic Social Security provisions on unified budget cash flow (column 3) is 

expected to be negative for years 2011 and 2012, largely due to the benefit increase for those 

with 20 or more years of benefit eligibility starting in 2011. It is important to note that the 

revenue to the General Fund of the Treasury from the changes in corporate and personal income 

tax is not reflected in these tables. Thus, the unified budget effects are by no means a complete 

indication of the effects of the overall plan. 

The remaining specified provisions of the plan rapidly result in substantial positive net changes 

in unified budget cash flow after 2012. Column 4 of Table 1b indicates that the projected effect 

of implementing the basic Social Security provisions is a reduction starting in 2014 on the 

Federal debt held by the public. Column 5 provides the projected effect of specified plan 

provisions on the annual unified budget balances, including both the cash flow effect in column 3 

and the additional interest on the accumulated debt indicated in column 4. It is important to note 

that these estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report and 

thus are not consistent with estimates made by the OMB or the CBO based on their assumptions. 

Annual Trust Fund Operations as a Percent of GDP

Table 1c provides annual cost, annual expenditures (on a payable basis), and annual tax income 

for the OASDI program expressed as a percentage of GDP. These values are shown for both 

present law and assuming enactment of the basic Social Security provisions of the Commission 

plan. Showing the annual trust fund flows as a percent of GDP provides an additional 

perspective on these trust fund operations in relation to the total value of goods and services 

produced in the United States. The relationship between income and cost is similar when 

expressed as a percent of GDP to that when expressed as a percent of taxable payroll (see Table 

1).

Effects on Trust Fund Assets and Unfunded Obligations

Table 1d provides estimates of the changes due to the basic Social Security provisions of the 

Commission plan in the level of projected trust fund assets under present law and, for years after 
14

trust fund exhaustion under present law, the level of unfunded obligations. All values in the 

table are expressed in present-value discounted dollars. For the 75-year long-range period as a 

whole, the present-law unfunded obligation of $5.4 trillion in present value is replaced with a 

positive trust fund balance of $1.1 trillion in present value. This change is the combination of 

the following: 

• A $3.0 trillion increase in revenue (column 2), plus

• A $3.5 trillion reduction in cost (column 3).

As noted earlier, the relative size of the reduction in aggregate cost under the basic Social 

Security provisions is low compared to the proportion of change related to direct benefit 

reductions. This is because additional OASDI benefits from provisions that expand the payroll 

tax base substantially offset a portion of the direct reductions in OASDI benefits from 

modifications in the benefit formula and the COLA.

We hope these estimates will be helpful. Please let me know if we may provide further 

assistance.

Sincerely,

Stephen C. Goss

Chief Actuary

Enclosures 
Table A--Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of the 

Plan Proposed by the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform: 

Basic Provisions Only -- Those with Direct Effects on Social Security Benefits or Tax Revenue 

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1/

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

in 75th year 2/

(as a percent of payroll)

1) After the NRA reaches age 67, index the NRA to maintain a 

constant ratio of life expectancy at NRA to potential work years 

(NRA-20) and maintain the earliest eligibility age (EEA) at 5 years 

less than the normal retirement age (NRA) in the future. Also, 

include a “hardship exemption” with no EEA/NRA change if a 

worker has 25 years of earnings of at least the level needed for 4 

quarters of coverage, and average indexed monthly earnings 

(AIME) less than 250% of the individual aged Federal poverty 

level (wage-indexed from 2009). The hardship exemption is 

phased out for those with AIME above 400% of the poverty level ..... 0.34 1.22 

2) Create a new bend point at the 50th percentile of new retired 

worker entitlements. Beginning for those newly eligible in 2017, 

do the following: a) reduce the 32 percent PIA formula factor 

below the new bend point to 30% by 2050; b) reduce the 32 

percent PIA factor above the new bend point to 10 percent by 

2050; and c) reduce the 15 percent factor to 5 by 2050 ....................... 0.86 2.12 

3) Starting with the December 2011 cost-of-living adjustment 

(COLA), compute the COLA using a chain-weighted version of the 

consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers 

(CPI-W). This new computation is estimated to result in an annual 

COLA that is 0.3 percentage point less, on average ............................ 0.50 0.70 

4) Beginning for those newly eligible for benefits in 2017, increase 

the special minimum benefit by making the following changes. 

(a) A year of coverage is defined as a year in which 4 quarters of 

coverage are earned. (b) Set the PIA for 30 years of coverage equal 

to 125 percent of the monthly poverty level (about $1,128 in 

2009). The PIA per year of coverage (after the first 10 years) 

would be $1,128/20 = $56.40. (c) Increase the PIA per year of 

coverage from 2009 to the year of implementation, 2017, using the 

chain-CPI index; then index the initial PIA per year of coverage by 

wage growth for successive cohorts, so that the special minimum 

keeps up with the wage-indexed benefit formula. Scale work 

requirements for disabled workers based on the years of potential 

work (not disabled) .............................................................................. -0.15 -0.26 

5) Provide a 5% uniform benefit increase, beginning 20 years after 

eligibility. The benefit increase would be phased in at 1% per year 

from the 20th through 24th years after initial benefit eligibility. For 

disabled workers the eligibility age would be the initial entitlement 

year to the benefit. The benefit increase is equal to 5% of the PIA 

of a worker assumed to have career-average earnings equal to 

SSA’s average wage index .................................................................. -0.15 -0.23 
Table A--Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of the 

Plan Proposed by the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform: 

Basic Provisions Only -- Those with Direct Effects on Social Security Benefits or Tax Revenue 

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1/

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

in 75th year 2/

(as a percent of payroll)

6) Increase contribution and benefit base (“taxable maximum”) by 

an additional 2 percent per year beginning in 2012 until taxable 

earnings are equal to 90 percent of covered earnings (estimated to 

occur in 2049). Additional taxable earnings would be credited for 

the purpose of computing benefits. Create a new bend point equal 

to the current-law taxable maximum and provide a 5 percent PIA 

formula factor for AIME above the new bend point ............................ 0.67 0.90 

7) Allow retirees to collect up to half their benefits at age 62, with 

the other half available independently starting at EEA. Actuarial 

reduction or delayed retirement increment applies to each half 

separately based on starting age. The retirement earnings test 

would apply for benefits payable before EEA. Also, the PIA for 

the portion of the benefit starting at age 62 would be computed 

with the PIA formula appropriate for the year of attaining 62 (with 

indexing of earnings for AIME to 2 years earlier) ............................... 3/ 3/ 

8) Cover state and local government employees newly hired after 

2020 ..................................................................................................... 0.16 -0.12 

Total for provisions 1-8 .......................................................... 2.15 4.20

1/ Under current law, the long-range OASDI actuarial balance is estimated at -1.92 percent of taxable payroll. 

2/ Under current law, the estimated 75th year annual balance is -4.12 percent of taxable payroll. 

3/ The estimated change is negligible, that is, less than 0.005 percent of taxable payroll. 

Notes: All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2010 OASDI Trustees Report. 

 Estimates of individual provisions appear on a stand-alone basis relative to current law, unless otherwise stated. 

SSA/Office of the Chief Actuary 

December 1, 2010
 Basic Provisions Only -- Those with Direct Effects on Social Security Benefits or Tax Revenue

Year Longevity

Attain Index NRA Reduced Benefit Minimum

Age 65 (Wage Indexed (Constant 1 Mth/ 2 Yrs3 COLA4 Formula5 Benefit6 Total Scheduled Payable

2010 Dollars) 2010 Dollars)

 

2010 648 648

2020 611 717 0.0 -0.9 0.0 39.7 38.5 138 138

2030 579 758 0.0 -0.9 -0.1 39.8 38.5 138 138

2040 578 852 0.0 -0.9 -0.2 40.0 38.5 138 177

2050 580 959 0.0 -0.9 -0.3 40.1 38.5 139 173

2060 580 1,074 0.0 -0.9 -0.3 40.1 38.5 139 175

2070 580 1,200 0.0 -0.9 -0.3 40.1 38.5 138 178

2080 580 1,341 0.0 -0.9 -0.3 40.1 38.5 138 183

2010 848 848

2020 800 938 0.0 -0.9 0.0 6.8 5.8 106 106

2030 758 992 0.0 -0.9 -0.5 7.4 5.9 106 106

2040 756 1,115 0.0 -0.9 -1.0 7.9 5.9 106 135

2050 758 1,255 0.0 -0.9 -1.5 8.5 5.9 106 133

2060 759 1,404 0.0 -0.9 -1.7 8.6 5.9 106 134

2070 759 1,569 0.0 -0.9 -1.7 8.6 5.9 106 136

2080 758 1,754 0.0 -0.9 -1.7 8.6 5.9 106 140

2010 1,397 1,397

2020 1,318 1,546 0.0 -0.9 -0.2 0.0 -1.1 99 99

2030 1,248 1,634 -0.6 -0.9 -2.6 0.0 -4.0 96 96

2040 1,245 1,838 -3.2 -0.9 -4.9 0.0 -8.7 91 116

2050 1,249 2,068 -5.8 -0.9 -7.2 0.0 -13.3 87 108

2060 1,251 2,314 -8.2 -0.9 -7.9 0.0 -16.2 84 106

2070 1,251 2,586 -9.6 -0.9 -7.9 0.0 -17.5 83 106

2080 1,249 2,889 -11.5 -0.9 -7.9 0.0 -19.2 81 107

2010 1,851 1,851

2020 1,747 2,048 0.0 -0.9 -0.7 0.0 -1.5 98 98

2030 1,654 2,166 -1.3 -0.9 -7.3 0.0 -9.3 91 91

2040 1,651 2,435 -4.5 -0.9 -14.0 0.0 -18.6 81 104

2050 1,656 2,740 -7.7 -0.9 -20.7 0.0 -27.4 73 91

2060 1,658 3,067 -10.1 -0.9 -22.7 0.0 -31.1 69 87

2070 1,658 3,427 -12.5 -0.9 -22.7 0.0 -32.9 67 86

2080 1,656 3,829 -14.9 -0.9 -22.7 0.0 -34.8 65 86

2010 2,192 2,192

2020 2,126 2,493 0.0 -0.9 -0.9 0.0 -1.8 98 98

2030 2,021 2,646 -1.3 -0.9 -9.9 0.0 -11.9 88 88

2040 2,016 2,974 -4.5 -0.9 -18.9 0.0 -23.3 77 98

2050 2,020 3,343 -7.7 -0.9 -27.9 0.0 -34.0 66 83

2060 2,021 3,738 -10.1 -0.9 -30.6 0.0 -38.1 62 78

2070 2,021 4,177 -12.5 -0.9 -30.6 0.0 -39.8 60 77

2080 2,019 4,668 -14.9 -0.9 -30.6 0.0 -41.5 59 77

1

 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2010.

2

 After trust fund exhaustion under present law continuing taxes are expected to be enough to pay about three fourths of scheduled benefits.

3

 Index the NRA to keep a constant ratio of life expectancy at NRA to (NRA-20) once the NRA reaches 67. Include hardship exemption with no 

EEA/NRA change if 25yrs with 4QCs and AIME <250% Federal poverty level; phased to no exemption with AIME >=400% of poverty level. 

The scaled very low and low earners meet the requirements for the hardship exemption. However, only about 20 percent of earners with AIMEs 

closest to the scaled very low earner and 70 percent of earners closest to the scaled low earner would meet these requirements.

4

 Starting Dec 2011, compute the COLA using a chained CPI-W, producing 0.3% lower annual COLAs on average.

5

 New bend point at 50th percentile of career-average earnings level; reduced PIA factors to 90/30/10/5 by 2050.

6

 Increase the PIA to a level such that a worker with 30 years of earnings at the minimum wage level would receive an adjusted PIA equal to 125% of

monthly poverty level in 2009, CPI-index from 2009-2017 then wage-indexed. This provision would take full effect for all newly eligible workers in 2017.

The EEA increases under this proposal. For these illustrations, we assume the indexing year and the computation period remain as in current law - the

indexing year is the year the worker reaches age 60 and the computation period is 35 years.

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report.

Table B1. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Retiring (Stop Working) at age 65 

Plan Proposed by the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform

Scheduled Benefit Level Percent Change at age 65

Present Law Scheduled Proposal Scheduled Benefit

Monthly Benefits2 Percent of Present Law:

December 1, 2010

(Percents)

Scaled Very Low Earner ($10,771 for 20101)

Scaled Low Earner ($19,388 for 20101

)

Steady Maximum Earner ($106,800 for 20101

)

Office of the Actuary

Social Security Administration

Scaled Medium Earner ($43,084 for 20101)

Scaled High Earner ($68,934 for 20101

)

(Percent change)
 Basic Provisions Only -- Those with Direct Effects on Social Security Benefits or Tax Revenue

Year 

Attain

Age 65 Age 65 Age 75 Age 852 Age 95

2010

2020 138.5 134.5 138.6 136.6

2030 138.5 134.5 138.4 136.3

2040 138.5 134.5 138.1 135.9

2050 138.5 134.5 137.7 135.4

2060 138.5 134.5 137.5 135.2

2070 138.5 134.5 137.3 135.0

2080 138.5 134.5 137.2 134.8

2010

2020 105.8 102.8 106.0 104.4

2030 105.9 102.8 105.8 104.2

2040 105.9 102.8 105.5 103.9

2050 105.9 102.8 105.2 103.5

2060 105.9 102.8 105.1 103.3

2070 105.9 102.8 105.0 103.2

2080 105.9 102.8 104.9 103.1

2010

2020 98.9 96.1 97.0 95.1

2030 96.0 93.2 94.1 92.3

2040 91.3 88.6 89.5 87.8

2050 86.7 84.2 85.0 83.4

2060 83.8 81.4 81.4 80.6

2070 82.5 80.1 80.2 79.4

2080 80.8 78.4 78.5 77.7

2010

2020 98.5 95.6 95.7 93.6

2030 90.7 88.1 88.3 86.4

2040 81.4 79.1 79.4 77.7

2050 72.6 70.5 70.3 69.5

2060 68.9 66.9 66.8 66.0

2070 67.1 65.1 65.0 64.3

2080 65.2 63.3 62.7 62.5

2010

2020 98.2 95.4 95.0 92.8

2030 88.1 85.6 85.4 83.5

2040 76.7 74.5 74.5 72.9

2050 66.0 64.1 63.7 62.9

2060 61.9 60.1 59.8 59.0

2070 60.2 58.5 58.2 57.5

2080 58.5 56.9 56.2 55.9

1

 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2010.

2

 Increase the benefit by 5% beginning 20 years after eligibility and phased in over five years starting in 2011.

Note: Starting Dec 2011, compute the COLA using a chained CPI-W, producing 0.3% lower annual COLAs on average. 

Other Changes: Index the NRA to keep a constant ratio of life expectancy at NRA to (NRA-20) once the NRA reaches 67. Include

hardship EEA/NRA change if 25yrs with 4QCs and AIME <250% Federal poverty level; phased to no exemption with 

AIME >=400% of poverty level. The scaled very low and low earners meet the requirements for the hardship exemption. However,

only about 20 percent of earners with closest to the scaled very low earner and 70 percent of earners closest to the scaled low

earner would meet these requirements.

New bend point at 50th percentile of career-average earnings level; reduced PIA factors to 90/30/10/5 by 2050.

Increase the PIA to a level such that a worker with 30 years of earnings at the minimum wage level would receive an adjusted PIA 

equal to 125% of monthly poverty level in 2009, CPI-index from 2009-2017 then wage-indexed. This provision would take full

effect for all newly eligible workers in 2017.

The EEA increases under this proposal. For these illustrations, we assume the indexing year and the computation period remain as 

in current law - the indexing year is the year the worker reaches age 60 and the computation period is 35 years.

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report.

Scaled Medium Earner ($43,084 for 2010 1)

Scaled High Earner ($68,934 for 20101

)

Steady Maximum Earner ($106,800 for 2010 1

)

Office of the Actuary

Social Security Administration

December 1, 2010

Table B2. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Retiring (Stop Working) at age 65 

Plan Proposed by the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform

Proposal Benefit as Percent of Present Law Scheduled

(Percents)

Scaled Very Low Earner ($10,771 for 2010 1)

Scaled Low Earner ($19,388 for 20101

)
Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2010 13.09 12.33 -0.76 355 0.00 0.00 0.00

2011 13.11 12.92 -0.19 351 0.08 0.00 -0.07

2012 12.92 12.91 -0.01 348 0.08 0.04 -0.04

2013 12.86 12.98 0.12 344 0.04 0.08 0.04

2014 12.87 13.04 0.17 340 0.01 0.12 0.11

2015 12.95 13.09 0.14 336 -0.03 0.16 0.18

2016 13.05 13.15 0.11 333 -0.06 0.19 0.25

2017 13.22 13.21 0.00 329 -0.09 0.22 0.31

2018 13.43 13.27 -0.16 325 -0.12 0.26 0.37

2019 13.69 13.32 -0.38 320 -0.14 0.29 0.43

2020 13.98 13.40 -0.58 314 -0.17 0.35 0.52

2021 14.25 13.48 -0.77 308 -0.20 0.41 0.61

2022 14.52 13.56 -0.96 300 -0.23 0.47 0.70

2023 14.76 13.63 -1.13 293 -0.27 0.53 0.80

2024 14.98 13.70 -1.28 285 -0.31 0.58 0.89

2025 15.19 13.77 -1.43 276 -0.34 0.63 0.98

2026 15.37 13.83 -1.55 268 -0.38 0.68 1.07

2027 15.53 13.89 -1.64 259 -0.43 0.73 1.15

2028 15.66 13.94 -1.72 249 -0.47 0.77 1.24

2029 15.76 13.99 -1.77 240 -0.52 0.81 1.33

2030 15.84 14.04 -1.79 231 -0.57 0.85 1.42

2031 15.89 14.09 -1.80 222 -0.61 0.89 1.50

2032 15.93 14.14 -1.79 213 -0.66 0.93 1.59

2033 15.94 14.18 -1.77 205 -0.71 0.96 1.68

2034 15.94 14.22 -1.72 196 -0.76 1.00 1.76

2035 15.91 14.26 -1.66 189 -0.81 1.03 1.85

2036 15.87 14.29 -1.58 181 -0.87 1.07 1.93

2037 15.82 14.33 -1.49 174 -0.92 1.10 2.02

2038 15.75 14.36 -1.39 168 -0.97 1.13 2.10

2039 15.66 14.39 -1.27 162 -1.02 1.16 2.18

2040 15.58 14.42 -1.15 157 -1.06 1.19 2.26

2041 15.49 14.45 -1.03 152 -1.11 1.22 2.34

2042 15.39 14.48 -0.91 148 -1.16 1.25 2.42

2043 15.30 14.51 -0.79 145 -1.21 1.29 2.50

2044 15.21 14.54 -0.67 143 -1.26 1.31 2.58

2045 15.13 14.57 -0.56 141 -1.31 1.34 2.66

2046 15.06 14.60 -0.46 140 -1.36 1.37 2.73

2047 14.99 14.63 -0.36 140 -1.41 1.40 2.81

2048 14.91 14.65 -0.25 140 -1.47 1.43 2.90

2049 14.83 14.68 -0.15 141 -1.52 1.46 2.98

2050 14.75 14.69 -0.07 142 -1.58 1.46 3.04

2051 14.69 14.69 0.00 145 -1.64 1.46 3.10

2052 14.63 14.69 0.07 147 -1.70 1.47 3.16

2053 14.58 14.70 0.12 150 -1.75 1.47 3.22

2054 14.53 14.70 0.17 153 -1.81 1.47 3.28

2055 14.50 14.70 0.20 157 -1.86 1.47 3.33

2056 14.48 14.70 0.22 161 -1.91 1.47 3.38

2057 14.46 14.70 0.24 165 -1.96 1.47 3.42

2058 14.44 14.70 0.27 169 -2.00 1.47 3.47

2059 14.42 14.70 0.29 173 -2.05 1.46 3.51

2060 14.40 14.71 0.30 178 -2.08 1.46 3.54

2061 14.39 14.71 0.31 182 -2.12 1.46 3.58

2062 14.38 14.71 0.32 187 -2.15 1.46 3.61

2063 14.38 14.71 0.33 192 -2.18 1.46 3.64

2064 14.37 14.71 0.34 197 -2.21 1.46 3.67

2065 14.38 14.71 0.34 202 -2.24 1.46 3.70

2066 14.39 14.72 0.33 207 -2.26 1.46 3.72

2067 14.40 14.72 0.32 212 -2.28 1.46 3.74

2068 14.42 14.72 0.31 216 -2.31 1.46 3.77

2069 14.43 14.72 0.29 221 -2.33 1.46 3.79

2070 14.45 14.73 0.28 226 -2.36 1.46 3.82

2071 14.46 14.73 0.27 231 -2.39 1.46 3.85

2072 14.48 14.73 0.25 235 -2.41 1.46 3.87

2073 14.50 14.74 0.23 240 -2.43 1.46 3.90

2074 14.53 14.74 0.21 244 -2.46 1.46 3.92

2075 14.55 14.74 0.20 249 -2.48 1.46 3.94

2076 14.58 14.75 0.16 253 -2.49 1.46 3.95

2077 14.61 14.75 0.14 257 -2.51 1.46 3.97

2078 14.63 14.75 0.12 261 -2.53 1.46 3.99

2079 14.65 14.76 0.10 265 -2.55 1.46 4.02

2080 14.66 14.76 0.10 269 -2.59 1.46 4.05

2081 14.65 14.76 0.12 273 -2.65 1.47 4.11

2082 14.65 14.77 0.12 278 -2.69 1.47 4.15

2083 14.67 14.77 0.10 282 -2.71 1.47 4.18

2084 14.69 14.77 0.08 286 -2.74 1.47 4.20

2085 14.71 14.78 0.07 290 -2.76 1.47 4.23

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

14.76% 14.99% 0.23% N/A -1.17% 0.99% 2.15%

1 Under present law the year of exhaustion is 2037

Year of 

Exhaustion1

Summarized Rates: OASDI

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report

December 1, 2010

Summarized Rates: OASDI

2010 - 2084

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

 Basic Provisions Only -- Those with Direct Effects on Social Security Benefits or Tax Revenue

Proposal

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll

Change in Present Law

Plan Proposed by the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform
Percentage

of Payroll

Annual

Amounts

Accumulated as of 

End of Year

Gross Domestic 

Product

Without General

Fund Transfers

With Plan General

Fund Transfers

(1) (2) (3) (5) (6) (7) (8)

2010 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,500.1 14,440.7 2,500.1 2,500.1

2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,490.1 14,447.1 2,493.9 2,493.9

2012 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,490.0 14,629.9 2,495.8 2,495.8

2013 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,497.0 14,850.2 2,500.7 2,500.7

2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,506.7 15,008.0 2,504.4 2,504.4

2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,515.2 15,093.9 2,502.6 2,502.6

2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,521.7 15,113.0 2,495.2 2,495.2

2017 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,522.2 15,084.7 2,478.0 2,478.0

2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,514.0 14,993.3 2,448.8 2,448.8

2019 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,493.8 14,866.6 2,404.4 2,404.4

2020 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,462.5 14,744.5 2,344.3 2,344.3

2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,421.1 14,612.8 2,269.2 2,269.2

2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,370.0 14,470.7 2,180.2 2,180.2

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,310.7 14,322.0 2,078.2 2,078.2

2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,244.0 14,168.7 1,964.7 1,964.7

2025 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,170.8 14,006.1 1,840.6 1,840.6

2026 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,092.3 13,848.9 1,707.4 1,707.4

2027 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,010.0 13,695.6 1,566.5 1,566.5

2028 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,924.9 13,543.6 1,419.1 1,419.1

2029 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,838.4 13,388.7 1,266.6 1,266.6

2030 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,751.6 13,238.7 1,110.6 1,110.6

2031 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,665.6 13,096.4 951.9 951.9

2032 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,581.0 12,955.3 791.4 791.4

2033 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,498.7 12,814.6 629.9 629.9

2034 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,419.4 12,675.9 468.5 468.5

2035 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,344.0 12,539.7 308.0 308.0

2036 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,273.0 12,408.4 149.0 149.0

2037 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,206.7 12,278.7 -7.9 -7.9

2038 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,145.8 12,153.7 -162.2 -162.2

2039 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,090.9 12,027.7 -313.2 -313.2

2040 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,041.5 11,899.8 -460.7 -460.7

2041 0.0 0.0 0.0 997.9 11,774.2 -604.7 -604.7

2042 0.0 0.0 0.0 960.0 11,649.7 -745.2 -745.2

2043 0.0 0.0 0.0 927.7 11,526.1 -882.3 -882.3

2044 0.0 0.0 0.0 900.6 11,403.5 -1,016.3 -1,016.3

2045 0.0 0.0 0.0 878.3 11,281.3 -1,147.4 -1,147.4

2046 0.0 0.0 0.0 860.4 11,159.4 -1,275.9 -1,275.9

2047 0.0 0.0 0.0 846.8 11,036.6 -1,402.0 -1,402.0

2048 0.0 0.0 0.0 837.5 10,914.9 -1,525.6 -1,525.6

2049 0.0 0.0 0.0 832.4 10,794.6 -1,646.9 -1,646.9

2050 0.0 0.0 0.0 830.5 10,674.1 -1,766.0 -1,766.0

2051 0.0 0.0 0.0 831.3 10,553.6 -1,883.2 -1,883.2

2052 0.0 0.0 0.0 834.4 10,434.0 -1,998.8 -1,998.8

2053 0.0 0.0 0.0 839.5 10,314.8 -2,113.3 -2,113.3

2054 0.0 0.0 0.0 846.2 10,196.3 -2,226.7 -2,226.7

2055 0.0 0.0 0.0 854.1 10,078.9 -2,339.4 -2,339.4

2056 0.0 0.0 0.0 862.6 9,963.1 -2,451.4 -2,451.4

2057 0.0 0.0 0.0 871.7 9,849.3 -2,562.8 -2,562.8

2058 0.0 0.0 0.0 881.6 9,737.3 -2,673.5 -2,673.5

2059 0.0 0.0 0.0 892.2 9,627.1 -2,783.4 -2,783.4

2060 0.0 0.0 0.0 903.0 9,517.7 -2,892.6 -2,892.6

2061 0.0 0.0 0.0 914.2 9,409.2 -3,001.2 -3,001.2

2062 0.0 0.0 0.0 925.5 9,301.9 -3,109.2 -3,109.2

2063 0.0 0.0 0.0 936.9 9,196.0 -3,216.6 -3,216.6

2064 0.0 0.0 0.0 948.4 9,091.8 -3,323.4 -3,323.4

2065 0.0 0.0 0.0 959.7 8,988.7 -3,429.7 -3,429.7

2066 0.0 0.0 0.0 970.5 8,886.5 -3,535.7 -3,535.7

2067 0.0 0.0 0.0 980.9 8,785.3 -3,641.3 -3,641.3

2068 0.0 0.0 0.0 990.7 8,685.0 -3,746.7 -3,746.7

2069 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,000.1 8,585.5 -3,851.9 -3,851.9

2070 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,009.0 8,487.0 -3,956.9 -3,956.9

2071 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,017.4 8,388.8 -4,061.7 -4,061.7

2072 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,025.2 8,292.1 -4,166.3 -4,166.3

2073 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,032.4 8,196.2 -4,270.8 -4,270.8

2074 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,039.0 8,101.5 -4,375.1 -4,375.1

2075 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,045.0 8,007.1 -4,479.3 -4,479.3

2076 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,050.0 7,913.4 -4,583.2 -4,583.2

2077 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,054.3 7,820.3 -4,687.0 -4,687.0

2078 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,058.0 7,727.4 -4,790.5 -4,790.5

2079 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,061.2 7,635.8 -4,893.8 -4,893.8

2080 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,064.2 7,545.2 -4,996.8 -4,996.8

2081 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,067.7 7,455.5 -5,099.6 -5,099.6

2082 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,071.2 7,366.6 -5,202.1 -5,202.1

2083 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,074.2 7,278.4 -5,304.4 -5,304.4

2084 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,076.7 7,191.1 -5,406.3 -5,406.3

Total 2010-2084 0.0

Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report Office of the Chief Actuary

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9% Social Security Administration

December 1, 2010

Theoretical Social Security1

with Borrowing Authority

 Basic Provisions Only -- Those with Direct Effects on Social Security Benefits or Tax Revenue

Present Value in Billions as of 1-1- 2010 Net OASDI Trust Fund Assets at End of Year

1

 Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption

 that the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury.

Plan Proposed by the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform

Table 1a - General Fund Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Assets, and Theoretical OASDI Assets

Calendar

Year

Proposal General Fund Transfers Present Value in Billions as of 1-1-2010

Proposal

Total OASDI

Trust Fund

Assets 

at End of Year
Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) = (1)+(2) (4) (5)

2010 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2011 0.0 -3.8 -3.8 3.8 -3.8

2012 0.0 -2.0 -2.0 5.8 -2.2

2013 0.0 2.1 2.1 3.8 1.8

2014 0.0 6.1 6.1 -2.3 5.9

2015 0.0 10.2 10.2 -12.5 10.3

2016 0.0 14.0 14.0 -26.5 14.6

2017 0.0 17.6 17.6 -44.2 19.0

2018 0.0 21.1 21.1 -65.2 23.3

2019 0.0 24.2 24.2 -89.4 27.6

2020 0.0 28.7 28.7 -118.2 33.4

2021 0.0 33.6 33.6 -151.8 39.9

2022 0.0 38.0 38.0 -189.8 46.1

2023 0.0 42.6 42.6 -232.4 52.9

2024 0.0 46.9 46.9 -279.3 59.6

2025 0.0 50.8 50.8 -330.2 66.1

2026 0.0 54.7 54.7 -384.9 72.8

2027 0.0 58.6 58.6 -443.5 79.6

2028 0.0 62.3 62.3 -505.8 86.6

2029 0.0 65.9 65.9 -571.7 93.6

2030 0.0 69.4 69.4 -641.1 100.6

2031 0.0 72.7 72.7 -713.8 107.7

2032 0.0 75.9 75.9 -789.7 114.9

2033 0.0 79.1 79.1 -868.8 122.3

2034 0.0 82.2 82.2 -950.9 129.7

2035 0.0 85.1 85.1 -1,036.0 137.0

2036 0.0 87.9 87.9 -1,123.9 144.6

2037 0.0 90.7 90.7 -1,214.6 152.1

2038 0.0 93.4 93.4 -1,308.0 159.8

2039 0.0 96.0 96.0 -1,404.0 167.5

2040 0.0 98.2 98.2 -1,502.2 174.9

2041 0.0 100.4 100.4 -1,602.6 182.5

2042 0.0 102.6 102.6 -1,705.2 190.2

2043 0.0 104.8 104.8 -1,810.0 198.0

2044 0.0 106.9 106.9 -1,916.9 205.8

2045 0.0 108.8 108.8 -2,025.7 213.6

2046 0.0 110.6 110.6 -2,136.3 221.3

2047 0.0 112.4 112.4 -2,248.7 229.2

2048 0.0 114.3 114.3 -2,363.1 237.2

2049 0.0 116.3 116.3 -2,479.4 245.4

2050 0.0 117.1 117.1 -2,596.5 252.6

2051 0.0 118.0 118.0 -2,714.5 259.9

2052 0.0 118.8 118.8 -2,833.3 267.2

2053 0.0 119.5 119.5 -2,952.8 274.4

2054 0.0 120.2 120.2 -3,073.0 281.6

2055 0.0 120.5 120.5 -3,193.5 288.4

2056 0.0 120.5 120.5 -3,314.0 295.0

2057 0.0 120.5 120.5 -3,434.5 301.7

2058 0.0 120.6 120.6 -3,555.1 308.3

2059 0.0 120.5 120.5 -3,675.5 314.8

2060 0.0 120.1 120.1 -3,795.7 321.0

2061 0.0 119.7 119.7 -3,915.4 327.2

2062 0.0 119.3 119.3 -4,034.7 333.3

2063 0.0 118.8 118.8 -4,153.5 339.3

2064 0.0 118.3 118.3 -4,271.8 345.3

2065 0.0 117.6 117.6 -4,389.4 351.1

2066 0.0 116.8 116.8 -4,506.2 356.7

2067 0.0 116.0 116.0 -4,622.2 362.3

2068 0.0 115.3 115.3 -4,737.5 367.9

2069 0.0 114.5 114.5 -4,852.0 373.5

2070 0.0 113.8 113.8 -4,965.8 379.0

2071 0.0 113.2 113.2 -5,079.0 384.6

2072 0.0 112.5 112.5 -5,191.5 390.1

2073 0.0 111.7 111.7 -5,303.2 395.4

2074 0.0 110.9 110.9 -5,414.1 400.8

2075 0.0 110.1 110.1 -5,524.3 406.0

2076 0.0 109.0 109.0 -5,633.2 410.9

2077 0.0 108.0 108.0 -5,741.2 415.9

2078 0.0 107.2 107.2 -5,848.5 421.0

2079 0.0 106.5 106.5 -5,955.0 426.2

2080 0.0 106.0 106.0 -6,061.0 431.5

2081 0.0 106.3 106.3 -6,167.3 437.5

2082 0.0 106.0 106.0 -6,273.3 443.0

2083 0.0 105.2 105.2 -6,378.5 448.1

2084 0.0 104.5 104.5 -6,483.0 453.1

0.0 6,483.0 6,483.0

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9% Social Security Administration

December 1, 2010

Table 1b - OASDI Changes & Unified Budget Implications of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1 (Present Value Dollars)

Plan Proposed by the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform

1

 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table.

 Basic Provisions Only -- Those with Direct Effects on Social Security Benefits or Tax Revenue

Total 2010-84

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2010
Year

Specified General 

Fund Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) = (1)+(2) (4) (5)

2010 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2011 0.0 -4.1 -4.1 4.2 -4.2

2012 0.0 -2.2 -2.2 6.7 -2.5

2013 0.0 2.4 2.4 4.5 2.2

2014 0.0 7.5 7.5 -2.9 7.4

2015 0.0 13.1 13.1 -16.6 13.6

2016 0.0 19.0 19.0 -36.8 20.3

2017 0.0 25.1 25.1 -64.5 27.7

2018 0.0 31.6 31.6 -100.3 35.8

2019 0.0 38.3 38.3 -145.0 44.7

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

December 1, 2010

Billions of Nominal Dollars

Table 1b.n - OASDI Changes & Unified Budget Implications of Specified Plan Porvision Effects on OASDI1 (Nominal Dollars)

Plan Proposed by the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform

1

 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table.

 Basic Provisions Only -- Those with Direct Effects on Social Security Benefits or Tax Revenue
Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Tax

Income Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Tax

Income

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

2010 4.84 4.84 4.56 4.84 4.84 4.56

2011 4.80 4.80 4.75 4.82 4.82 4.75

2012 4.76 4.76 4.77 4.79 4.79 4.78

2013 4.75 4.75 4.78 4.77 4.77 4.81

2014 4.78 4.78 4.80 4.78 4.78 4.84

2015 4.83 4.83 4.81 4.82 4.82 4.87

2016 4.90 4.90 4.84 4.88 4.88 4.92

2017 4.98 4.98 4.86 4.95 4.95 4.95

2018 5.08 5.08 4.88 5.04 5.04 4.98

2019 5.20 5.20 4.89 5.14 5.14 5.00

2020 5.30 5.30 4.89 5.24 5.24 5.02

2021 5.41 5.41 4.89 5.33 5.33 5.04

2022 5.51 5.51 4.88 5.42 5.42 5.06

2023 5.60 5.60 4.88 5.50 5.50 5.08

2024 5.68 5.68 4.88 5.57 5.57 5.09

2025 5.77 5.77 4.87 5.64 5.64 5.11

2026 5.84 5.84 4.87 5.70 5.70 5.12

2027 5.90 5.90 4.87 5.75 5.75 5.14

2028 5.96 5.96 4.87 5.79 5.79 5.15

2029 6.01 6.01 4.87 5.82 5.82 5.17

2030 6.05 6.05 4.86 5.84 5.84 5.18

2031 6.08 6.08 4.86 5.85 5.85 5.19

2032 6.10 6.10 4.86 5.86 5.86 5.20

2033 6.12 6.12 4.86 5.86 5.86 5.21

2034 6.13 6.13 4.85 5.85 5.85 5.22

2035 6.14 6.14 4.85 5.84 5.84 5.23

2036 6.14 6.14 4.85 5.82 5.82 5.24

2037 6.13 6.06 4.84 5.79 5.79 5.25

2038 6.11 4.84 4.84 5.76 5.76 5.25

2039 6.10 4.84 4.84 5.72 5.72 5.26

2040 6.08 4.83 4.83 5.69 5.69 5.27

2041 6.05 4.83 4.83 5.65 5.65 5.27

2042 6.03 4.82 4.82 5.61 5.61 5.28

2043 6.01 4.81 4.81 5.57 5.57 5.28

2044 5.99 4.81 4.81 5.53 5.53 5.29

2045 5.97 4.80 4.80 5.49 5.49 5.29

2046 5.95 4.79 4.79 5.46 5.46 5.29

2047 5.94 4.79 4.79 5.43 5.43 5.30

2048 5.92 4.78 4.78 5.39 5.39 5.30

2049 5.91 4.78 4.78 5.36 5.36 5.30

2050 5.89 4.77 4.77 5.32 5.32 5.30

2051 5.88 4.76 4.76 5.29 5.29 5.29

2052 5.87 4.76 4.76 5.26 5.26 5.29

2053 5.87 4.75 4.75 5.24 5.24 5.28

2054 5.87 4.75 4.75 5.22 5.22 5.28

2055 5.87 4.74 4.74 5.20 5.20 5.27

2056 5.87 4.74 4.74 5.18 5.18 5.26

2057 5.87 4.73 4.73 5.17 5.17 5.25

2058 5.87 4.73 4.73 5.15 5.15 5.25

2059 5.87 4.72 4.72 5.14 5.14 5.24

2060 5.87 4.71 4.71 5.13 5.13 5.24

2061 5.87 4.71 4.71 5.12 5.12 5.23

2062 5.87 4.70 4.70 5.11 5.11 5.22

2063 5.87 4.70 4.70 5.10 5.10 5.22

2064 5.87 4.69 4.69 5.09 5.09 5.21

2065 5.88 4.69 4.69 5.08 5.08 5.20

2066 5.88 4.68 4.68 5.08 5.08 5.20

2067 5.88 4.67 4.67 5.08 5.08 5.19

2068 5.89 4.67 4.67 5.08 5.08 5.18

2069 5.89 4.66 4.66 5.07 5.07 5.18

2070 5.90 4.66 4.66 5.07 5.07 5.17

2071 5.91 4.65 4.65 5.07 5.07 5.17

2072 5.92 4.65 4.65 5.07 5.07 5.16

2073 5.92 4.64 4.64 5.07 5.07 5.15

2074 5.93 4.64 4.64 5.07 5.07 5.15

2075 5.94 4.63 4.63 5.08 5.08 5.14

2076 5.95 4.63 4.63 5.08 5.08 5.14

2077 5.96 4.62 4.62 5.08 5.08 5.13

2078 5.97 4.62 4.62 5.09 5.09 5.13

2079 5.97 4.62 4.62 5.09 5.09 5.12

2080 5.98 4.61 4.61 5.09 5.09 5.12

2081 5.99 4.61 4.61 5.08 5.08 5.12

2082 6.00 4.61 4.61 5.07 5.07 5.11

2083 6.01 4.60 4.60 5.07 5.07 5.11

2084 6.02 4.60 4.60 5.08 5.08 5.10

Plan Proposed by the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform

Table 1c - Present Law and Proposal Cost, Expenditures, and Income: As Percent of Gross Domestic P

December 1, 2010

Social Security Administration

Present Law OASDI Proposal OASDI

Calendar

Year

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

 Basic Provisions Only -- Those with Direct Effects on Social Security Benefits or Tax Revenue
Year

Present Law OASDI

Trust Fund Assets /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Total Change

Through

End of Year

Proposal OASDI

Trust Fund Assets /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) = cumulative sum(4) (6) = (1)+(5)

2010 2,500.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,500.1

2011 2,493.9 0.2 4.0 -3.8 -3.8 2,490.1

2012 2,495.8 2.4 4.3 -2.0 -5.8 2,490.0

2013 2,500.7 4.5 2.4 2.1 -3.8 2,497.0

2014 2,504.4 6.6 0.5 6.1 2.3 2,506.7

2015 2,502.6 8.8 -1.4 10.2 12.5 2,515.2

2016 2,495.2 10.7 -3.3 14.0 26.5 2,521.7

2017 2,478.0 12.6 -5.0 17.6 44.2 2,522.2

2018 2,448.8 14.5 -6.6 21.1 65.2 2,514.0

2019 2,404.4 16.2 -8.0 24.2 89.4 2,493.8

2020 2,344.3 19.2 -9.5 28.7 118.2 2,462.5

2021 2,269.2 22.6 -11.0 33.6 151.8 2,421.1

2022 2,180.2 25.6 -12.5 38.0 189.8 2,370.0

2023 2,078.2 28.4 -14.3 42.6 232.4 2,310.7

2024 1,964.7 30.8 -16.1 46.9 279.3 2,244.0

2025 1,840.6 32.9 -17.9 50.8 330.2 2,170.8

2026 1,707.4 35.0 -19.7 54.7 384.9 2,092.3

2027 1,566.5 36.9 -21.7 58.6 443.5 2,010.0

2028 1,419.1 38.6 -23.8 62.3 505.8 1,924.9

2029 1,266.6 40.2 -25.8 65.9 571.7 1,838.4

2030 1,110.6 41.6 -27.8 69.4 641.1 1,751.6

2031 951.9 43.0 -29.6 72.7 713.8 1,665.6

2032 791.4 44.3 -31.6 75.9 789.7 1,581.0

2033 629.9 45.5 -33.6 79.1 868.8 1,498.7

2034 468.5 46.6 -35.6 82.2 950.9 1,419.4

2035 308.0 47.6 -37.5 85.1 1,036.0 1,344.0

2036 149.0 48.6 -39.4 87.9 1,123.9 1,273.0

2037 -7.9 49.5 -41.2 90.7 1,214.6 1,206.7

2038 -162.2 50.4 -43.0 93.4 1,308.0 1,145.8

2039 -313.2 51.1 -44.9 96.0 1,404.0 1,090.9

2040 -460.7 51.9 -46.3 98.2 1,502.2 1,041.5

2041 -604.7 52.6 -47.8 100.4 1,602.6 997.9

2042 -745.2 53.3 -49.3 102.6 1,705.2 960.0

2043 -882.3 54.0 -50.8 104.8 1,810.0 927.7

2044 -1,016.3 54.6 -52.3 106.9 1,916.9 900.6

2045 -1,147.4 55.1 -53.7 108.8 2,025.7 878.3

2046 -1,275.9 55.6 -55.0 110.6 2,136.3 860.4

2047 -1,402.0 56.0 -56.4 112.4 2,248.7 846.8

2048 -1,525.6 56.4 -57.9 114.3 2,363.1 837.5

2049 -1,646.9 56.8 -59.5 116.3 2,479.4 832.4

2050 -1,766.0 56.3 -60.8 117.1 2,596.5 830.5

2051 -1,883.2 55.7 -62.3 118.0 2,714.5 831.3

2052 -1,998.8 55.1 -63.8 118.8 2,833.3 834.4

2053 -2,113.3 54.5 -65.1 119.5 2,952.8 839.5

2054 -2,226.7 53.8 -66.3 120.2 3,073.0 846.2

2055 -2,339.4 53.1 -67.4 120.5 3,193.5 854.1

2056 -2,451.4 52.4 -68.1 120.5 3,314.0 862.6

2057 -2,562.8 51.7 -68.9 120.5 3,434.5 871.7

2058 -2,673.5 51.0 -69.6 120.6 3,555.1 881.6

2059 -2,783.4 50.3 -70.2 120.5 3,675.5 892.2

2060 -2,892.6 49.6 -70.5 120.1 3,795.7 903.0

2061 -3,001.2 48.9 -70.8 119.7 3,915.4 914.2

2062 -3,109.2 48.3 -71.0 119.3 4,034.7 925.5

2063 -3,216.6 47.7 -71.1 118.8 4,153.5 936.9

2064 -3,323.4 47.0 -71.2 118.3 4,271.8 948.4

2065 -3,429.7 46.4 -71.2 117.6 4,389.4 959.7

2066 -3,535.7 45.8 -71.0 116.8 4,506.2 970.5

2067 -3,641.3 45.2 -70.8 116.0 4,622.2 980.9

2068 -3,746.7 44.7 -70.6 115.3 4,737.5 990.7

2069 -3,851.9 44.1 -70.4 114.5 4,852.0 1,000.1

2070 -3,956.9 43.5 -70.3 113.8 4,965.8 1,009.0

2071 -4,061.7 43.0 -70.2 113.2 5,079.0 1,017.4

2072 -4,166.3 42.4 -70.0 112.5 5,191.5 1,025.2

2073 -4,270.8 41.9 -69.8 111.7 5,303.2 1,032.4

2074 -4,375.1 41.4 -69.5 110.9 5,414.1 1,039.0

2075 -4,479.3 40.9 -69.3 110.1 5,524.3 1,045.0

2076 -4,583.2 40.3 -68.6 109.0 5,633.2 1,050.0

2077 -4,687.0 39.8 -68.2 108.0 5,741.2 1,054.3

2078 -4,790.5 39.3 -67.9 107.2 5,848.5 1,058.0

2079 -4,893.8 38.8 -67.7 106.5 5,955.0 1,061.2

2080 -4,996.8 38.3 -67.7 106.0 6,061.0 1,064.2

2081 -5,099.6 37.9 -68.4 106.3 6,167.3 1,067.7

2082 -5,202.1 37.4 -68.6 106.0 6,273.3 1,071.2

2083 -5,304.4 36.9 -68.3 105.2 6,378.5 1,074.2

2084 -5,406.3 36.5 -68.0 104.5 6,483.0 1,076.7

Total 2010-2084 3000.8 -3482.2 6483.0

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%. December 1, 2010

(Billions of Dollars, Present Value on 1-1-2010)

Table 1d - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Assets / Unfunded Obligation

Plan Proposed by the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform

 Basic Provisions Only -- Those with Direct Effects on Social Security Benefits or Tax Revenue