Long-Range OASDI Projection

Methodology

Intermediate Assumptions of the 2016 Trustees 

Report

June 2016 

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration
A. Flow Charts
Overview of Long-Range OASDI Projection Methodology

Process 2:

Economics

Process 1:

Demography

Process 4:

Trust Fund Operations and Actuarial Status

Process 3:

Beneficiaries

Chart 1: 

Social Security Administration

Office of the Chief Actuary

June 2016
Trustees ultimate assumptions

Fertility

Mortality

Legal Immigration

Other Immigration

1.2 Mortality

Inputs: Historical U.S. deaths by cause and 

U.S. resident population; Medicare deaths 

and enrollments

Outputs: Historical and projected death probabilities 

1.4 Historical Population

Inputs: Historical U.S. population, undercounts, marital status data, other immigrant population data, and 

estimates of population in other components of Social Security area. 

Outputs: Historical Social Security area population (including starting population); Historical other 

immigrant population

1.6 Marriage

Inputs: Historical number of marriages, 

remarriage data, and consistent 

population (detailed data for a subset of the 

U.S. population) 

Outputs: Historical and projected central 

marriage rates 

1.7 Divorce

Inputs: Historical number of divorces and 

consistent population (detailed data for a subset 

of the U.S. population) 

Outputs: Historical and projected central divorce 

rates 

1.8 Projected Population

Inputs: Historical U.S. family data 

Outputs: Projected data – Social Security area population

Economics, Beneficiaries, and Trust Fund Operation and Actuarial Status 

Note: 1.2, 1.3, 1.4, and 1.5 also provide outputs used by these processes

1.1 Fertility 

Inputs: Historical U.S. births and female 

resident population 

Outputs: Historical and projected 

central birth rates

1.3 Legal Immigration

Inputs: Historical legal U.S. immigration 

levels 

Outputs: Historical and projected annual

legal immigration and emigration levels 

Chart 2: Demography – Process 1

Social Security Administration

Office of the Chief Actuary

June 2016

1.5 Other Immigration

Inputs: Historical levels of the

foreign-born population

Outputs: Historical and projected annual 

other immigration and emigration levels;

projected other immigrant population
Trustees Ultimate Economic Assumptions

Average real wage

Productivity

Average hours worked

Inflation

Full-employment unemployment rate

 2.2 Class of Worker

Inputs: Historical BLS data, 

population (Demography), & 

economic factors

Outputs: Wage workers & selfemployed by age and sex 

2.3 AWI Series

Inputs: Historical AWI 

2.1 Real & Potential GDP, Nominal GDP

Inputs: Historical NIPA (BEA) data

Outputs: Real, potential, and nominal GDP 

 2.3 Covered Employment

Inputs: Historical U.S. & covered employment

data, population including other immigrant 

population &DACA/DAPA immigrants (Demography) 

Outputs: Covered worker rates, covered 

worker levels, & total employed (all by age, 

sex, type of worker) 

2.2 U. S. Wages & Income

Inputs: Historical NIPA (BEA) data & employment

(BLS) by sector 

Outputs: Wages & SE income by sector 

2.3 Average Covered Earnings

Outputs: Projected average 

covered earnings by type of worker 

2.4 Taxable Earnings

Inputs: Historical distribution of earnings 

Outputs: Taxable wages, taxable SE income &

 multi-employer refunds 

2.4 Average Taxable Earnings

Outputs: Average taxable earnings 

2.4 Effective taxable payroll

Outputs: Effective taxable payroll 

Chart 3: Economics – Process 2

Social Security Administration

Office of the Chief Actuary

June 2016

 2.1 U. S. Employment

Inputs: Historical BLS data, population 

(Demography), disability prevalence 

rates (from prior TR), life expectancies (from 

Demography), & economic factors 

Outputs: Historical & projected labor force 

participation & unemployment rates by age and sex

2.3 Covered Earnings

Inputs: Historical NIPA & covered earnings

data by sector 

Outputs: Historical & projected covered 

earnings by type of worker 

Beneficiaries, 

Trust Fund Operations and Actuarial Status

2.3 Taxable Maximum

Inputs: Historical taxable maximum 
 3.1 Fully-insured (FI) population

Inputs: Covered workers, median earnings,

and AWI (Economics), population including other

immigrant and DACA/DAPA (Demography), 

net legal immigration (Demography), other than 

legal population attaining DACA/DAPA status

(Demography), earnings distribution, historical 

FI population (historical and short-range 

projections).

Outputs: FI population (historical and projected),

historical and projected fully insured rates

3.1 Disability-insured (DII) population

Inputs: Historical DII population 

Outputs: DII population (historical and projected)

3.2 Disabled-worker beneficiary (DIB) population

Inputs: Base period incidence, recovery, and 

mortality rates. 

Projected Data -- Assumed ultimate changes in 

incidence rates, recovery rates, and mortality 

rates (Demography) from base period 

Outputs: DIB population and conversions to OAB 

(projected) 

3.3 Old-Age beneficiary (OAB) population

Inputs: Historical OAB population, labor force 

participation rates (Economics), and scheduled 

reductions for early retirement and increases for

delayed retirement 

Outputs: OAB population (projected) 

3.3 Auxiliary Beneficiaries of Retired and Deceased Workers

Inputs: Historical auxiliary beneficiaries of retired and deceased

workers, SS area population by marital status (Demography), 

number of children with at least one parent aged 62+ 

(Demography), number of children with at least one deceased 

Parent (Demography), average number of children per family 

(Demography) and other relationships 

Outputs: Auxiliary beneficiaries of retired and deceased workers 

by type of benefit (projected) 

Trust Fund Operations and Actuarial Status

 3.3 Widow beneficiary population

Inputs: Historical widow beneficiary population,

SS area population by marital status (Demography)

and other relationships

Outputs: Insured and uninsured widow beneficiary

population (projected)

Chart 4: Beneficiaries – Process 3

Social Security Administration

Office of the Chief Actuary

June 2016

 3.2 DIB Auxiliary Beneficiaries

Inputs: Historical beneficiaries by type of 

benefit, population (Demography), other 

relationships 

Outputs: Auxiliary beneficiaries of disabled 

workers by type of benefit (projected) 

Note: Insured widow refers to widow beneficiaries who are insured for OAIB benefits, but not receiving those benefits

Trustees ultimate assumptions

 Disability incidence rates 

 Disability recovery rates 

Disability mortality rates 
Chart 5: Trust Fund Operations and Actuarial Status – Process 4

 4.3 Payroll taxes

Inputs: Payroll tax rate, effective taxable 

payroll (Economics), incurred-to-cash lag factor,

short-range estimates 

Outputs: Payroll taxes 

4.1 Fraction benefits taxable

Inputs: Historical and projected short-range data on 

income taxation of benefits from Office of Tax Analysis

in the Department of the Treasury and data from 

current population survey 

Outputs: TOB as of a percent of benefits (projected) 

 4. 3 Taxation of benefits (TOB)

Outputs: Taxes on benefits 

 4.3 Administrative expenses

Inputs: Short-range administrative expenses; 

total beneficiary population and AWI, 

assumed increase in productivity (Economics),

Outputs: Administrative expenses 

 4.3 Benefit payments

Inputs: Starting average benefits, OAB population, DIB population,

married and divorced aged population (Demography), 

Cost-of-Living Adjustments (Economics), post-entitlement factors, 

assumed benefit relationships between workers and auxiliaries, shortrange estimates of benefit payments 

Outputs: Scheduled benefit payments during year, average scheduled

benefits 

 4. 3 Railroad interchange

Inputs: Data from Railroad Retirement Board and 

AWI, covered workers, taxable payroll (Economics), 

short range estimates of railroad interchange 

Outputs: Net payments to RRB 

 4. 3 Interest income

Inputs: Short-range estimates

of interest income

Outputs: Interest income, annual 

yield rate on the OASI, DI, and 

combined funds

Trust Fund Operations and Actuarial Status

Output: Summarized income and cost rates and actuarial balances; 

open Group unfunded obligations; annual income rate, cost rate and 

Social Security Administration Balance: Dollar trust fund operations and trust fund ratios 

Office of the Chief Actuary

June 2016

Trustees ultimate assumptions

Real interest rate, CPI

4.2 AIME Levels for newly-entitled OABs and DIBs

Inputs: Sample of newly-entitled OABs and DIBs; sample

of earnings from CWHS; SS area population (Demography);

covered workers, average taxable earnings (Economics); 

and National Average Wage Index (AWI), Tax Maximum; 

historical and projected fully insured rates by sex and age, 

historical and projected (Beneficiaries)

Outputs: Projected AIME distributions for new 

entitlements 
8

B. Process Descriptions

The long-range programs used to make projections for the annual Trustees Report are grouped into 

four major processes. These include Demography, Economics, Beneficiaries, and Trust Fund 

Operations and Actuarial Status. Each major process consists of a number of subprocesses. Each 

subprocess is described in terms of three elements: 

• This overview attempts to provide a general description of the purpose of each subprocess. 

This element introduces key projected variables used in the subprocess. Some variables are 

represented as being dependent in an equation, where the dependent variable is defined in 

terms of one or more independent variables. Independent variables may include previously 

calculated dependent variables or data provided from outside the subprocess. Other key 

variables are referenced by “(·)” following the variable name. This symbol indicates that the 

calculation of this variable cannot easily be communicated by an equation and, thus, requires 

a more complex discussion. 

• Input Data – Data used in the subprocess are described. These data include those from other 

subprocesses, ultimate long-range assumptions provided by the Board of Trustees of the 

OASDI Trust Funds, data from other offices of the Social Security Administration, and data 

from outside the Social Security Administration (e.g., estimates of the U.S. population). Data 

description includes data source and data detail (e.g., define age detail of data). In addition, 

this element includes how often additional data are expected to be received. 

• Development of Output – The key variables are described in greater detail, including the 

level of disaggregation of the data. 
9

Process 1:

Demography
10

1. Demography

The primary purpose of the Demography Process is to provide estimates of the projected Social Security area 

population1 for each year of the 75-year projection period in the Trustees Report. For the 2016 report, the 

projection period covers the years 2016 through 2090. The Demography Process receives input data mainly 

from other government agencies, and provides output data to the Economics, Beneficiaries, and Trust Fund 

Operations and Actuarial Status processes.

The Demography Process is composed of eight subprocesses: FERTILITY, MORTALITY, LEGAL 

IMMIGRATION, HISTORICAL POPULATION, OTHER IMMIGRATION, MARRIAGE, DIVORCE, and 

PROJECTED POPULATION. The following chart displays the key outputs of each subprocess:

Subprocess Key Outputs

FERTILITY • Birth rates, by age of mother

MORTALITY • Probabilities of death, by age and sex

LEGAL 

IMMIGRATION

• Legal immigrants, by age and sex

• Legal emigrants, by age and sex

• Adjustments of status from other than legal (OTL) status to legal status, 

by age and sex

HISTORICAL 

POPULATION

• Historical estimates of the Social Security area total population, by single 

year of age, sex, and marital status

• Historical estimates of the OTL population, by single year of age and sex

OTHER 

IMMIGRATION

• OTL immigrants, by age and sex

• OTL emigrants, by age and sex

• Projected OTL populations, by single year of age, sex, and OTL type 

(never-authorizeds, nonimmigrants, visa-overstayers)

• Historical estimates of the OTL population, by single year of age, sex, and 

OTL type 

MARRIAGE • Marriage rates, by age-of-husband crossed with age-of-wife

DIVORCE • Divorce rates, by age-of-husband crossed with age-of-wife

PROJECTED 

POPULATION

• Projected total populations, by age, sex, and marital status

 1 The Social Security area population consists of all persons who are potentially eligible to receive benefits under the Social Security 

program or who have the potential to work in covered employment. This population consists of residents of the U.S. and its 

territories, citizens living abroad, and beneficiaries living abroad.
11

1.1. FERTILITY

1.1.a. Overview

The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) collects data on annual numbers of births by single year of 

age of mother and the U.S. Census Bureau produces estimates of the resident population by single year of age

for females. Age-specific birth rates ( z

x b ) for a given year z are defined as the ratio of (1) births ( z Bx ) during the 

year to mothers at the specified age x to (2) the midyear female population ( z Px ) at that age. The total fertility 

rate z TFR summarizes the age-specific fertility rates for a given year z. The total fertility rate for a given year z

equals the sum of the age-specific birth rates for all ages x during the year. One can also interpret the total 

fertility rate as the number of children born to a woman if she were to survive her childbearing years and 

experience the age-specific fertility rates of year z throughout her childbearing years. 

The FERTILITY subprocess combines the historical values of z

x b and z TFR and assumed future values of the 

TFR to develop projections of z

x b . The primary equations of this subprocess are given below:

z

x b = z

x b (

.

) (1.1.1)

= ∑x

z

x

z TFR b (1.1.2) 

1.1.b. Input Data

Trustees Assumptions -

Each year the Board of Trustees of the OASDI Trust Funds sets the ultimate assumed values for the TFR. 

Under the intermediate assumptions underlying the 2016 Trustees Report, the ultimate TFR is 2.0 and it is 

assumed to be reached in 2027.

Other input data - 

• From the NCHS, annual numbers of births by age of mother2 (10-14, 15, 16, 17, ..., 48, 49-54) for 

years 1980-2014. In general, the NCHS provides an annual update including one additional year of 

final birth data and the previous historical years are only updated if the NCHS makes a historical 

revision to their data. 

• From the NCHS, the preliminary TFR for 2014.

• From the U.S. Census Bureau, estimates of the July 1st female resident population by single year of 

age for ages 14-49 for 1980-2014. In general, each year, Census provides updated data for years after 

the most recent decennial census.

• From the NCHS, historical birth rates, by single year of age of mother (14-49) for the period 1917-

1979. No updates of these data are needed.

 2 The ages provided include 10-14, 15, 16, 17, ..., 48, 49-54. Births at ages less than 14 are treated as having occurred at age 14 and 

ages reported to mothers older than 49 are treated as having occurred at age 49.
12

1.1.c. Development of Output

Equation 1.1.1 - Age-specific birth rates

The FERTILITY subprocess produces the age-specific birth rates, by childbearing ages 14 through 49, for years 

1941 through the end of the 75-year projection period. For historical years prior to 1980, age-specific birth 

rates come from the NCHS. For years 1980 through the remaining historical period, age-specific birth rates are 

calculated as: z

x

z

z x

x P

B b = , using birth data from the NCHS and estimates of the July 1st female resident population 

from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The age-specific birth rates are projected using a process that is consistent with both the observed trends in 

recent data and the ultimate assumed total fertility rate. This process consists of the following steps:

1. Averaged birth rates by age group,

3 designated as z

5 bx , are calculated from the age-specific birth rates 

z

x b for each year during the period 1980-2014.

2. To calculate the starting values of the projection process, the z

5 bx values from the last five years of 

historical data are averaged using weights of 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1 for years 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, and 

2010, respectively.

3. For each z

x 5 b age group series, the slope of the least squares line is calculated based on a regression over 

the period 1989-2014.

4. For 2015, each of the seven starting values of z

5 bx (from Step 2) is projected forward by adding 100 

percent of their respective slope (from Step 3).

5. Then, a preliminary total fertility rate for 2015, 2015 TFRp , is calculated such that, in general, it is equal to 

5 times the sum of each 2015

5 bx . For the age group 14-19, 6 times the sum is used since this age group 

actually contains one additional age.

6. For 2015, the Trustees assume this is 0.5% higher than the preliminary 2014 TFR from NCHS and thus,

the Trustees set 2015 TFR equal to 1.8708. 

7. To ensure the assumed total fertility rate is achieved for 2015, each value of 2015

5 x b (from Step 4) is now 

multiplied by the ratio of the assumed 2015 TFR (from Step 6) and the respective value of 2015 TFRp (from 

Step 5).

8. For 2016, each final z

x b5 for 2015 is projected forward by adding 92.3 percent of the respective slope 

(from Step 3). For subsequent projection years (2016-2040), an arithmetically decreasing portion of the 

slopes, until 0% is reached,4 is added to the previous year’s final values of z

5 bx to get preliminary values 

of z

x b5 . 

 3 The average is calculated by giving each age in the group equal weight without regard to population. The age groups calculated are: 

14-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, and 45-49. 

4 For each year of the projection, the percentage of the slopes added to each z

x b5 is reduced linearly such that 0% of the slope is used 

in the ultimate year. Thus, 0% is used for 2028 and later.
13

9. For years 2016 and later, a preliminary total fertility rate, z TFRp , is calculated from the preliminary 

values of z

5 bx in Step 8 and is calculated in the same manner as in Step 5.

10. Then, for each year, an adjustment is made so that the annual z TFR is consistent with the Trustees’ 

assumed TFRs. As mentioned in Step 6, 2015 TFR is assumed to be 1.8708. From 2016 – 2023, z TFR is 

assumed to increase consistent with the economic recovery. For years after 2023, z TFR is assumed to

decrease linearly from 2023 TFR until reaching the ultimate value in 2027.

11. To ensure the assumed total fertility rate is achieved, each value of z

5 bx (Step 8) is multiplied by the 

ratio of the assumed z TFR (Step 10) and the respective value of z TFRp (Step 9).

12. The final step of the projection method disaggregates the adjusted z

5 bx into single age birth rates by 

multiplying the final z

5 bx values for each year (Steps 7 or 11) by the ratio of the single year z

x b to the 

z

x b5 for each of the respective ages and age groups as calculated in the last year of complete historical 

data (Step 1). Then, minor adjustments correct rounding issues.
14

1.2 MORTALITY

1.2.a. Overview

The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) collects data on annual numbers of deaths and the U.S. 

Census Bureau produces estimates of the U.S. resident population. Central death rates (yMx) are defined as the 

ratio of (1) the number of deaths occurring during the year to persons between exact ages x and x+y to (2) the 

midyear population between exact ages x and x+y. For historical years prior to 1968, yMx are calculated from 

NCHS and Census data by sex. For historical years beginning in 1968, the same data are used in the 

calculations for ages under 65, but data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) are used 

for ages 65 and over. Based on death by cause data from the NCHS, the yMx are distributed by cause of death 

for years 1979 and later.

5

Over the last century, death rates have decreased substantially. The historical improvement in mortality is 

quantified by calculating the average annual percentage reduction (yAAx) in the central death rate. In order to 

project future yMx, the Board of Trustees of the OASDI Trust Funds determines the ultimate average annual 

percentage reduction that will be realized during the projection period ( u

y AAx ) for each sex and cause of death.

The basic mortality outputs of the MORTALITY subprocess that are used in projecting the population are 

probabilities of death by age and sex (qx). The probability that a person age x will die within one year (qx) is 

calculated from the central death rates (the series of yMx). 

Period life expectancy ( ) is defined as the average number of years of life remaining for people who are age x 

and are assumed to experience the assumed probabilities of death throughout their lifetime. It is generated from 

the probabilities of death for a given year and is a summary statistic of overall mortality for that year. 

Age-adjusted death rates (ADR) are also used to summarize the mortality experience of a single year, making 

different years comparable to each other. Age-adjusted death rates are a weighted average of the yMx, where the 

weights used are the numbers of people in the corresponding age groups of the standard population, the 2010 

U.S. Census resident population ( y x SP ). Thus, if the age-adjusted death rate for a particular year and sex is 

multiplied by the total 2010 U.S. Census resident population, the result gives the number of deaths that would 

have occurred in the 2010 U.S. Census resident population if the yMx for that particular year and sex had been 

experienced. Age-sex-adjusted death rates (ASDR) are calculated to summarize death rates for both sexes 

combined and are calculated as a weighted average of the yMx, where each weight is the number of people in 

the corresponding age and sex group of the 2010 U.S. Census resident population.

MORTALITY projects annual yMx, which are then used to calculate the program’s additional outputs. The

equations for this subprocess, 1.2.1 through 1.2.6, are given below:

 yMx = yMx (·) (1.2.1)

 

 

5 Data needed in order to project central death rates by cause of death were obtained from Vital Statistics tabulations for years since 

1979. For the years 1979-1998, adjustments were made to the distribution of the numbers of deaths by cause. The adjustments were 

needed in order to reflect the revision in the cause of death coding that occurred in 1999, making the data for the years 1979-1998 

more comparable with the coding used for the years 1999 and later. The adjustments were based on comparability ratios published by 

the National Center for Health Statistics.
15

 yAAx = yAAx (·) (1.2.2)

qx = qx (·) (1.2.3)

 

 = (·) (1.2.4)

∑

∑ ⋅

=

x

y x

z

y x s

x

y x

z

s SP

SP M

ADR

,

(1.2.5)

∑∑

∑∑ ⋅

=

s x

y x s

s

z

y x s

x

y x s

z

SP

SP M

ASDR

,

, ,

(1.2.6)

where z

y M x,s refers to the central death rate between exact age x and x+y, by sex, in year z; 

ySPx denotes the number of people in the standard population (male and female combined) who are between 

exact age x and x+y; and ySPx,s denotes the number of people, by sex, in the standard population who are 

between exact age x and x+y.

1.2.b. Input Data

Trustees Assumptions -

Each year the Board of Trustees of the OASDI Trust Funds sets the ultimate assumed values for the yAAx

by sex, age group,

6 and cause of death.7

 The average annual percentage reductions reach their ultimate 

values in the 25th year of the 75-year projection period. The ultimate rates of reduction by sex, age group, 

and cause of death can be found in Appendix 1.2-1.

NCHS Data -

• Annual numbers of registered deaths by sex and age group for the period 1900-1978. These data are 

not updated. Registered deaths refer to deaths in the Death Registration area. Since 1933, the Death 

Registration area has included all of the U.S.

• Annual numbers of deaths by sex, age group, and cause for the period 1979-2013. Generally, a new 

year of data is received each year. In addition, revised data are often available for years beginning 

with 1999. (1999 was the starting year of the latest international classification of diseases – ICD10.)

• The monthly number of births, by sex, for years 1938-2013. These data are updated annually, when

the NCHS provides an additional year of data. 

• The number of infant deaths, by age, sex, and age group,

8 for years 1938-2013. These data are 

updated annually, when the NCHS provides an additional year of data. 

 6 Age groups are: less than 15, 15-49, 50-64, 65-84, and 85+ 7 The five causes of death are: Cardiovascular Disease, Cancer, Violence, Respiratory Disease, and Other 8

 Age groups are: under 24 hours, 1-2 days, 3-6 days, 7 -27 days, 28 days-1 month, 2 months, 3 months,..., 11 months, 1 year, 2 

years, 3 years, and 4 years
16

• Deaths for 1995 and 1996 by sex, 4 marital statuses, and 21 age groups. The age groups are generally 

5-year age groups and are as follows: 0, 1-4, 5-9, 10-14, ..., and 95+). These data are updated as 

resources are available.

• The population of states in the Death Registration area by age group9 and sex, for years 1900-1939. 

These data are not updated.

• The number of registered deaths, by sex and age groups (85-89, 90-94, and 95+), for the years 1900-

1967. These data are not updated.

U.S. Census Bureau Data -

• Estimates of the July 1 resident population by single year of age (0 through 100+) for years 1980-

2013. Each year, Census provides an additional year of data and updated data for years after the most 

recent decennial census.

• From the Current Population Survey (CPS), the population by sex, marital status, and age group10 for 

the years 1995 and 1996. These data are updated as resources are available.

• The resident population by sex, marital status, and age group,

11 as of as of July 1, 1995 and 1996. 

These data are updated when new NCHS death data by marital status are incorporated.

• The resident population at ages 75-79 and 80-84, by sex, for years 1900-1940 (at ten year intervals).

These data are not updated.

• The resident population, by sex and age group,12 for 1940-2000. These data are not updated. 

CMS Data -

• Annual numbers of deaths, by sex and single year of age (ages 65 and over), for the period 1968-

2013. These data are updated annually, when the CMS provides an additional year of preliminary 

data and replaces the prior year’s preliminary with final data.

• Annual numbers of Medicare enrollments (who are insured for Social Security benefits), by sex and 

single year of age (ages 65 and over), for the period 1968-2014. These data are updated annually, 

when the CMS provides an additional year of preliminary data and replaces the prior year’s 

preliminary with final data.

Other input data -

• From a previous year’s Trustees Report, the July 1, 1995 and 1996, Social Security area population 

by sex, marital status, and single year of age (5 through 100+). These data are updated when new 

NCHS death data by marital status are incorporated.

 9 Age groups are: 0, 1-4, 5-14, 15-24, ..., 75-84, and 85+ 10 Age groups are: 15-17, 18-19, 20-24, 25-29,..., 40-44, 45-54, ..., 65-74, and 85+ 11 Age groups are: 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, ..., 90-94, and 95+

12 Age groups for years prior to 1980 are: 0, 1-4, 5-9, ..., 80-84, and 85+. For years 1980 and later, the age groups are: 0, 1-4, 5-9, ..., 

90-94, and 95+.
17

1.2.c. Development of Output

Equation 1.2.2 - Average Annual Percentage Reduction in the Central Death Rates ( y AAx )

The y AAx , by sex and cause, are calculated based on the decline in the yMx for the period 2003 through 2013,

and distributed by 21 age groups,

13 2 sexes, and 5 causes of death.14 The values are calculated as the 

complement of the exponential of the slope of the least-squares line through the logarithms of the yMx.

The ultimate assumed values for the central death rates ( u

y AAx ), as set by the Board of Trustees of the OASI and 

DI Trust Funds, are assumed to be reached in the 25th year of the 75-year projection period. The assumed 

ultimate values are specified by five causes of death for the following five age groups: under age 15, 15-49, 50-

64, 65-84, and 85 and older. Male and female values are set equal.

The starting values of y AAx , by the 21 age groups, sex, and cause, are assumed to equal the average y AAx

based on the decline in the yMx for the period 2003-2013 when that average is non-negative. If the historical 

average is negative, then the starting values are assumed to be 75 percent of the average. Available Medicare 

preliminary data is used for overall levels with the last available NCHS data year cause of death percentages 

carrying forward. A method of graduation is used that causes the absolute difference between the starting

values of y AAx and the ultimate values of u

y AAx to decrease rapidly until it reaches the Trustees’ ultimate 

assumed values, u

y AAx . This is accomplished by repeating the following steps for each historical year after 

2013, and the first 25 years of the projection:

1. The absolute value of the distance between the prior year’s calculated y AAx and the ultimate 

assumed u

y AAx is calculated.

2. If the ultimate assumed u

y AAx is greater than the prior year’s y AAx , then 80 percent of the difference 

is subtracted from the ultimate assumed u

y AAx . If the ultimate assumed uy AAx is less than the prior 

year’s y AAx , then 80 percent of the difference is added to the ultimate assumed u

y AAx .

3. These steps are repeated until the 25th year at which time the y AAx are set equal to their ultimate 

assumed values, u

y AAx . 

 13 Age groups are: 0, 1-4, 5-9, 10-14, ..., 90-94, and 95+ 14 The five causes of death are: Cardiovascular Disease, Cancer, Violence, Respiratory Disease, and Other.
18

Equation 1.2.1 – Central Death Rates (yMx)

Values of yMx are determined for each historical and projected year by the 21 age groups, 2 sexes, and 5 causes 

of death. The starting year for the projections of the yMx is 2013, and is the most recent data year in the 

historical period. However, instead of using the historical data for yMx in this year as the starting point for 

mortality projections, starting yMx values are calculated to be consistent with the trend inherent in the last 12 

years of available data. Each starting value for the yMx, by sex and cause of death, is computed as the value for 

the most recent year falling on a weighted least square line, where yMx is regressed on year, over the last 12 

years. The weights are 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, and 0.8 for the earliest four years of the 12 years and are 1.0 for all other 

years.

For years after 2013, yMx are projected, by sex and cause of death, by applying the respective y AAx to the prior 

year yMx. 

Equations 1.2.3 – Probabilities of death (qx)

In order to project population by age and sex, probabilities of death are applied to determine the projected 

number of deaths that will occur in the population. These probabilities, denoted as qx, reflect the probability a 

person age x will die within one year, where x refers to age last birthday as of the beginning of each year. For 

each year in the historical and projection period, separate qx series are estimated by sex. 

Different methods of projecting qx are used for age 0, for ages 1 through 4, for ages 5 through 94, and for ages 

95 and above. The following descriptions provide a brief discussion of these different methods. Additional 

detail is provided in Actuarial Study number 120. This study, titled Life Tables for the United States Social 

Security area 1900-2100, can be accessed at the following internet site:

http://www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/NOTES/s2000s.html. (Choose study number 120.)

• Values for qx at Age 0: During the first year of life, mortality starts at an extremely high level, which 

becomes progressively lower. This is unlike mortality at other ages, which does not change very much 

within a single year of age. Thus, it is particularly important at age 0 to estimate accurately the pattern of 

mortality throughout the year of age, as described above, for the calculation of q0. For the period 1940 

through the last historical year, q0 is calculated directly from tabulations of births by month and from 

tabulations of deaths at ages 0, 1-2, 3-6, 7-28 days, 1 month, 2 months, ..., and 11 months. After the last 

historical year, q0 is calculated from 1M0, assuming that the ratio of q0 to 1M0 measured for the last 

historical year would remain constant thereafter. 

• Values for qx at Ages 1 – 4: For the period 1940 through the last year of historical data, probabilities of 

death at each age 1 through 4 (qx, x = 1, 2, 3, 4) are calculated from tabulations of births by year and from 

tabulations of deaths at ages 1, 2, 3, and 4 years. After the last historical year, each qx (where x = 1, 2, 3, 

4) is calculated from 4M1 assuming that the ratio of qx to 4M1 measured for the last historical year would 

remain constant thereafter.

• Values for qx at Ages 5 – 94: Probabilities of death for these ages are calculated from the projected 

central death rates, 5Mx. As mentioned above, the calculations are discussed in detail in Actuarial Study 

number 120.

• Values for qx at Ages 95+: It has been observed that the mortality rates of women, though lower than 

those of men, tend to increase faster with advancing age than those of men. An analysis of Social Security 

charter Old-Age Insurance beneficiaries has shown that at the very old ages mortality increases about five 
19

percent per year of age for men and about six percent per year for women. For men, probabilities of death 

at each ages 95 and older are calculated as follows: 

For women, the same formulas are used, except that 1.06 is substituted for 1.05. The larger rate of 

growth in female mortality would eventually, at a very high age, cause female mortality to be higher 

than male mortality. At the point where this crossover would occur, female mortality is set equal to 

male mortality.

The values of qx used in projecting the population are based on age last birthday and are calculated by sex for 

1⁄2q0 (neonatal) and for qx, where x represents age last birthday for ages 0 through 100 (with 100 representing the 

age group 100 and older). Because life table values of probabilities of death are based on exact ages, values for 

qx representing age last birthday are derived as follows:

1⁄2q0 = 1 – L0 / l0 for neonatal

qx = 1 – Lx+1 / Lx for ages 0 to 99

q100 = 1 – T101 / T100 for age group 100 and older

See Actuarial Study number 120 for the definitions of the life table terms. This study can be accessed at the 

following internet site: http://www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/NOTES/s2000s.html. (Choose study number 120; 

then section IV.A in the table of contents.)

In addition, probabilities of death are broken down further into marital status. Historical data indicate 

differential in mortality by marital status is significant. To reflect this, projected relative differences in death 

rates by marital status are projected to be the same as observed during calendar years 1995 and 1996.

Equation 1.2.4 –Life expectancy 

Actuarial Study number 120 presents background information on the calculation of life expectancy, , from 

the probabilities of death (qx,). This study can be accessed at the following internet site: 

http://www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/NOTES/s2000s.html. (Choose study number 120; then IV.A in the table 

of contents.)
20

Appendix: 1.2-1

The Board of Trustees of the OASDI Trust Funds sets the ultimate rates of mortality reduction by age 

group and cause of death. For comparison purposes, rates are also presented for two historical periods. 

Note that although the ultimate rates are the same for males and females, the historical rates differ.

Table 2.3: Average Annual Rates of Reduction in Central Death Rates by Age Group, Sex, and Cause

Historical Alternative II* Historical Alternative II*

2015 TR 2016 TR 2015 TR 2016 TR 

1979 to 2013 2003 to 2013 2039-2089 2040-2090 1979 to 2013 2003 to 2013 2039-2089 2040-2090

Under Age 15 Male Female

Cardiovascular Disease 2.73 2.08 2.3 2.3 2.63 2.16 2.3 2.3

Cancer 2.37 1.90 1.5 1.5 1.93 1.46 1.5 1.5

Violence 2.84 2.44 1.0 1.0 2.37 2.67 1.0 1.0

Respiratory Disease 2.59 1.50 2.0 2.0 2.62 1.25 2.0 2.0

Other 2.34 2.36 1.7 1.7 2.22 1.98 1.7 1.7

Resulting Total ** 2.46 2.32 1.56 1.54 2.26 2.04 1.58 1.58

Ages 15 - 49 Male Female

Cardiovascular Disease 1.99 1.84 1.5 1.5 1.22 1.71 1.5 1.5

Cancer 1.87 2.36 1.5 1.5 1.66 1.80 1.5 1.5

Violence 0.83 0.89 0.7 0.7 0.05 -0.11 0.7 0.7

Respiratory Disease 0.84 0.71 0.5 0.5 -0.21 -0.44 0.5 0.5

Other 0.53 3.08 0.8 0.8 -0.37 1.42 0.8 0.8

Resulting Total ** 1.15 1.71 0.88 0.88 0.58 1.04 0.94 0.95

Ages 50 - 64 Male Female

Cardiovascular Disease 3.07 2.09 2.2 2.2 2.65 2.44 2.2 2.2

Cancer 1.64 1.58 1.5 1.5 1.39 1.80 1.5 1.5

Violence 0.09 -2.21 0.5 0.5 -0.57 -3.07 0.5 0.5

Respiratory Disease 1.09 0.11 0.7 0.7 -0.47 -0.13 0.7 0.7

Other -0.43 -0.42 0.6 0.6 -0.45 -0.14 0.6 0.6

Resulting Total ** 1.64 0.83 1.06 1.07 1.15 1.03 1.06 1.07

Ages 65 - 84 Male Female

Cardiovascular Disease 3.25 3.84 2.2 2.2 2.90 4.01 2.2 2.2

Cancer 0.88 1.94 0.9 0.9 -0.02 1.31 0.9 0.9

Violence 0.60 -0.03 0.5 0.5 -0.08 -0.25 0.5 0.5

Respiratory Disease 0.64 1.55 0.3 0.3 -1.95 0.51 0.3 0.3

Other -0.78 -0.43 0.3 0.3 -1.50 -0.59 0.3 0.3

Resulting Total ** 1.59 1.98 0.76 0.77 0.76 1.57 0.71 0.72

Ages 85 and older Male Female

Cardiovascular Disease 1.71 3.15 1.2 1.2 1.88 3.54 1.2 1.2

Cancer -0.23 1.22 0.5 0.5 -0.50 0.55 0.5 0.5

Violence -0.64 -0.43 0.3 0.3 -1.21 -1.83 0.3 0.3

Respiratory Disease -0.56 2.03 0.2 0.2 -1.76 1.33 0.2 0.2

Other -2.31 -2.04 0.2 0.2 -3.20 -2.27 0.2 0.2

Resulting Total ** 0.30 1.23 0.49 0.51 0.10 0.99 0.47 0.48

Total Male Female

Cardiovascular Disease 2.65 3.22 2.39 3.56

Cancer 0.93 1.74 0.47 1.36

Violence 0.60 0.04 -0.12 -0.83

Respiratory Disease 0.31 1.57 -1.58 0.69

Other -0.84 -0.56 -1.58 -0.96

Resulting Total ** 1.22 1.54 0.73 0.74 0.63 1.26 0.68 0.69

* Alternative 1 is 1/2 times Alternative 2; Alternative 3 is 5/3 times Alternative 2.
21

**Resulting total represents average annual percent reduction in age-adjusted death rates for the last 50 years of the 75 year projection period.
22

1.3. LEGAL IMMIGRATION

1.3.a. Overview

Legal immigration is defined as those persons who have been admitted into the United States and been granted 

legal permanent resident (LPR) status. Legal emigration consists of legal permanent residents and U.S. Citizens 

who depart the Social Security area population to reside elsewhere. 

For each year z of the projection period, the LEGAL IMMIGRATION subprocess produces estimates of legal 

immigration (Lz

) and legal emigration (Ez), by age and sex, based on assumptions set by the Trustees for each 

category. In addition, the LEGAL IMMIGRATION subprocess disaggregates the estimates of Lz into those 

who have been admitted into the United States during the year (NEWz

) and those who adjusted from the otherimmigrant population to LPR status (AOSz

).

Each fiscal year,

15 the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) collects data on the number of persons granted 

LPR status by age, sex, and class of admission. The U.S Census Bureau provided OCACT with an unpublished 

estimate of the annual number of legal emigrants, by sex and age, based on the change between the 1980 and 

1990 censuses. These historical data are used as a basis for developing age-sex distributions that are applied to 

the Trustees’ aggregate immigration assumptions to produce annual legal immigration and emigration estimates 

by age and sex. 

The primary equations of LEGAL IMMIGRATION, by age (x) and sex (s), for each year (z) of the 75-year 

projection period are summarized below:

( ) , , = ⋅ z

x s

z NEWx s NEW (1.3.1)

( ) , , = ⋅ z

x s

z AOSx s AOS (1.3.2)

z

x s

z

x s

z Lx s NEW AOS , = , + , (1.3.3)

( ) , , = ⋅ z

x s

z Ex s E (1.3.4)

z

x s

z

x s

z NLx,s = L , − E , (1.3.5)

1.3.b. Input Data

Trustees Assumptions -

Each year the Board of Trustees of the OASDI Trust Funds specifies the total annual assumed values for legal 

immigration and legal emigration. For the 2016 Trustees Report, the ultimate values for legal immigration and 

emigration are 1,060,000 and 265,000, respectively (both reached in 2015). 

Department of Homeland Security –

• Historical legal immigration by fiscal year (1941-1973), 5-year age group (0-4, 5-9, ..., and 80-84), and 

sex. These data will not be updated.

• Legalizations due to IRCA by type (pre-1982s and SAWs), single year of age (0-98 and unknown age), 

sex (including unknown) and month for the years 1989-1996. These data will not be updated.

• Historical legal immigration by fiscal year (1973-2014), single year of age (0 through 99, and unknown 

 15 The federal fiscal year begins on October 1 of the previous calendar year and ends on September 30 of the specified calendar year.
23

age), sex (including unknown), and class of admission (New Arrival, Adjustment of Status, Refugee, 

and Asylee). These data are updated annually, with the DHS providing an additional year of data each 

year.

• Total adjustments of status for the years 1966 to 1995 (OCACT further estimates total adjustments of 

status for 1963-1965). These data will not be updated.

U.S. Census Bureau –

• Unpublished estimates of annual legal emigration by five-year age groups (0-4, 5-9, ..., and 80-84) and 

sex for 1990 based on the change between the 1980 and 1990 censuses. These data are updated 

occasionally (based on having new data from an outside source and on OCACT resource time 

constraints).

Other input data -

• Legal emigration conversion factors. These estimates were developed internally by five-year age groups 

(0-4, 5-9, ..., and 80-84) and sex to reflect the fact that the estimated number of people leaving the 

United States is not equivalent to the number of people leaving the Social Security area. These data are 

updated when annual legal emigration estimates are updated (see above).

1.3.c. Development of Output

Equations 1.3.1 and 1.3.2 – Legal Immigration

The Trustees specify the aggregate amount of legal immigration for each year of the 75-year projection period. 

In order to incorporate the numbers of new immigrants into the Social Security area population projections, the 

total level of new immigrants is disaggregated by age and sex.

There are two ways for an immigrant to be admitted into the U.S. for lawful permanent residence: 

(1) New arrivals, such as persons living abroad who are granted an LPR visa and then enter the U.S. 

through a port of entry. Refugees and asylees that are granted LPR status are also treated as new arrivals 

in the OCACT model. 

(2) Adjustments of status, who are people already residing in the U.S. as other immigrants and have an 

application for adjustment to LPR status approved by the DHS.

The DHS provides data on legal immigrants by sex, single year of age, classification of admission, and fiscal 

year of entry. The 10 most recent years of data are used to calculate separate age-sex distributions for both new 

arrivals and adjustments of status by taking the following steps: 

1. Refugee and Asylee LPR admissions are subtracted from the adjustment of status data and added into 

the new arrival category.

2. The data are converted from fiscal year data to calendar year data.

3. For each class of admission, new arrival and adjustment of status, the historical data for the last 10 years 

(from 2005-2014) are combined into an average age-sex distribution.

z NEWx,s , the expected number of new arrival legal immigrants by age (x) and sex (s), is calculated by applying 

the age-sex distribution for new arrivals to the Trustees assumed level of new arrivals. The Trustees’ assumed 
24

number of adjustments of status is multiplied by the age-sex distribution of adjustments of status to 

calculate z AOSx,s .

Equation 1.3.4 – Legal Emigration

The Trustees specify the aggregate amount of legal emigration for each year of the projection period. This is 

done by setting the ratio of emigration to legal immigration. For the 2016 Trustees Report, the ratio is set at 25 

percent.

In order to produce the number of emigrants from the Social Security area population, the total level of 

emigrants is disaggregated by age and sex. The disaggregation is based on a distribution of emigrants, by sex 

and five-year age groups, provided to OCACT in unpublished estimates by Census that are based on changes 

between the 1980 and 1990 censuses. Since the emigration numbers estimated by Census are for all people 

leaving the United States, they are adjusted downward by a series of conversion factors so the data correspond 

to the number of people leaving the Social Security area population.

For each sex (s), the Beers formula is used to interpolate and distribute each five-year age group into a single 

year of age (x) distribution, EDISTx,s. For each projection year, this distribution is used to distribute the 

assumed level of total legal emigrants by age and sex using the following equation:

∑∑= =

=

f

s m x

x s

z

x s

z Ex s L EDIST

84

0

, , , .25( )*
25

1.4. HISTORICAL POPULATION

1.4.a. Overview

For each historical year, the HISTORICAL subprocess provides estimates of the Social Security area population 

for the period December 31, 1940, through December 31, 2013. The Social Security area population consists 

of:

• U.S. resident population and armed forces overseas plus

• Net census undercount plus

• Civilian residents of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and

American Samoa plus

• Federal civilian employees overseas plus

• Dependents of armed forces and federal civilian employees overseas plus

• Residual beneficiaries living abroad plus

• Other citizens overseas

The U.S. Census Bureau collects population data and tabulates it by age, sex, and marital status every ten years 

for the decennial census. Generally, each subsequent year, the Census Bureau publishes an estimate of the postcensal population. This subprocess combines these census and post-censal estimates, along with the estimates 

of the other components of the Social Security area population listed above, and components of change 

described in sections 1.1 to 1.3 to develop historical estimates of the total Social Security area population ( z Px,s ) 

and other than legal population ( z Ox,s ). Combining the total populations by single year of age and sex with an 

estimated marital status matrix provides the total Social Security area historical population by single year of 

age, sex, and marital status ( z Px,s,m ). These estimates are then used as the basis for the PROJECTED 

POPULATION subprocess described in section 1.8. The primary equations for this subprocess, 1.4.1, 1.4.2, 

and 1.4.3, are given below:

z Px,s = z Px,s (·) (1.4.1)

z Px,s,m = z Px,s,m (·) (1.4.2)

z Ox,s = z Ox,s (·) (1.4.3)
26

1.4.b. Input Data

Long-Range OASDI Projection Data -

Demography

• Probabilities of death from MORTALITY, by age last birthday and sex, for years 1941-2014. 

These data are updated every year. 

• The number of new legal immigrants by age and sex for years 1941-2013. These data are from the 

LEGAL IMMIGRATION subprocess and are updated each year.

• The number of legal emigrants by age and sex for years 1941-2013. These data are from the 

LEGAL IMMIGRATION subprocess and are updated each year.

• The number of adjustments of status by age and sex for years 1941-2013. These data are from the 

LEGAL IMMIGRATION subprocess and are updated each year.

• The number of “other immigrants” legalized under the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 

1986 (IRCA) from LEGAL IMMIGRATION. These data are reproduced each year and updated if 

new data is available.

• Birth rates by single year of age of mother (14-49) for the years 1941-2014 from the FERTILITY 

subprocess. These data are updated each year.

U.S. Census Bureau Data -

• Estimates of U.S resident population and Armed Forces population overseas as of each July 1 

(1940-1979) by sex and single-year of age through 84, and for the group aged 85 and older. These 

data are generally not updated.

• Estimates of the U.S. resident population for each Census (April 1) 1970 – 2010 by sex and single 

year of age 0 through 85+. New decennial Census estimates come out about every ten years.

• Estimates of total U.S. residential population and total residential population plus Armed Forces 

overseas population for each January of each Census year from 1990 and 2010. New decennial 

Census estimates come out about every ten years.

• Estimates of U.S resident population, and U.S. resident plus Armed Forces population overseas as 

of each July 1 (1980-2014) by sex and single-year of age 0 through 99, and ages 100 and older. 

Generally, the U.S. Census Bureau restates the data back to the most recent decennial census and 

includes one additional year of data.

• Estimates of U.S resident population, and U.S. resident plus Armed Forces population overseas as 

of each January 1 for each Census year starting in 1990 and the final data year (2014 for the 2016

TR) by sex and single-year of age 0 through 99, and ages 100 and older.

• Estimates of the population by marital status, sex, and age from the American Community Survey 

(ACS) public use microdata samples (PUMS) for years 2000 – 2014. In general, an additional year 

of data is available each year.
27

• Undercount factors by single year of age (0-85+) and sex, estimated using post-censal survey data.

These data are updated after each decennial census.

• The total annual population estimates for Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Guam, Northern Marianas, 

and American Samoa for years 1951-2014. For each Trustees Report, an additional data year is 

downloaded from the U.S. Census Bureau’s international database. Historical data back to 1951 is 

also obtained if any changes have occurred.

• Decennial Census population estimates, by varying degree of age detail and sex, for Censuses from 

1950 – 2000 for territories and components outside the 50 states, D.C., and armed forces overseas. 

Most data is aggregated into 18 age groups for each sex though single year of age data is available 

for young ages in the territories for 1960 and 1970 and all ages starting in 1980. New estimates are 

added as they become available.

• July populations of the territories by single year of age and sex from 2000 – 2014. An additional 

year of data is available each year.

• From ACS PUMS, number of existing marriages from 2000 – 2014 by age of husband crossed with 

age of wife. In addition, starting with the 2012 ACS, number of existing marriages by age of each 

spouse is available for same-sex couples. Final grids for same-sex couples are adjusted based on 

reported same-sex marriages from the states. Generally, an additional year of data is available each 

year.

• From decennial Census PUMS via the University of Minnesota’s IPUMS website, number of 

existing marriages for Census years 1940 – 2000 by age group of husband crossed with age group 

of wife. New estimates are added as they become available.

• From decennial Census PUMS via the University of Minnesota’s IPUMS website, estimates of the 

population by marital status, age, and sex for Census years 1940 – 2000. New estimates are added 

as they become available.

• Estimates of net immigration by age and sex of the U.S. residential plus armed forces overseas 

(USAF) population from April 1, 2000, through July 1, 2014. An additional year of data is 

available each year.

• Total Americans overseas estimate based on international data sources and estimates of federal 

employees and military in Iraq and Afghanistan. The data from the various international sources 

are derived from different years but center around the year 2003. Additional data will be updated 

as they become available. 

Other input data -

• From the Department of State, old historical total estimates of outside area populations (federal 

employees overseas, overseas dependents of federal employees and military, and other Americans 

overseas.

• The SSA Annual Statistical Supplement provides estimates of the total number of OASDI 

Beneficiaries living abroad for most years December 31, 1953 – 2013. Age group data is also 

available. For each Trustees Report, an additional year of data is available. Age group data is 
28

updated for each decennial Census year.

• From the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), the sex ratio (number of males born per 

female) for years 1941 – 2013. Each year, NCHS provides another year of data. For 2014, the sex 

ratio is assumed to be 1.048, the same as the assumed projected sex ratio.

• From the NCHS, National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) public-use data that helps split up the 

population eligible for same-sex marriage into marital statuses starting in 2013.

• From the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the total number of other immigrants 

(unauthorized immigrants plus nonimmigrants) from January 1, 2005 – 2012.

• From the Office of Personnel Management (OPM), total estimates of the number of federal 

employees overseas from July 1, 1998 – 2013. These estimates are updated as they become 

available on the OPM website.

• From the OPM, the number of federal employees overseas by single year of age and sex from a 

subset of the OPM data source above. Years 1980 – 2014 are available. These estimates are 

updated as they become available.

• From the Department of Defense, total numbers of armed forces in Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, 

Guam, and American Samoa each Census year starting in 1990. These data are updated as they 

become available.

• Using 2015 TR death rates and historical populations, an assumed December 31, 1940, 85+ 

distribution. These data are not updated.

• Assumed January total populations added to the Social Security for years 1951, 1957, and 1961 

when new territories were added to the Social Security area.

1.4.c. Development of Output

Equation 1.4.1 – Historical Population by age and sex ( z Px,s )

The Census Bureau's estimate of the residents of the 50 States, D.C., and U.S. Armed Forces overseas is used as 

a basis for calculating z Px,s . The base estimate is adjusted for net census undercount and increased for other U.S. 

citizens living abroad (including residents of US territories) and for non-citizens living abroad who are insured 

for Social Security benefits. 

The estimates of the number of residents of the fifty States and D.C. and Armed Forces overseas, as of July 1 of 

each year, by sex for single years of age through 84, and for the group aged 85 or older, are obtained from the 

Census Bureau. January 1 and April 1 estimates by sex for single years of age through 84, and for the group 

aged 85 or older for selected years starting in 1990 and 1970, respectively, are also obtained for from the 

Census Bureau. Adjustments for net census undercount are estimated using post-censal survey data from the 

Census Bureau. Population counts over age 65 after the last Census year are modified to be consistent with 

OCACT mortality and Census USAF net immigration data. The numbers of persons in the other components of 

the Social Security area as of July 1 are estimated by sex for single years of age through 84, and for the group 

aged 85 or older, from data of varying detail. Numbers of people residing in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, 

Guam, American Samoa, and the Northern Mariana Islands are estimated from data obtained from the Census
29

Bureau. Numbers of Federal civilian employees overseas are based on estimates from the Office of Personnel 

Management (OPM). Dependents of Federal civilian employees and Armed Forces overseas are based on the 

stock of Federal civilian employees from OPM and the stock of armed forces overseas from the Census Bureau. 

Other citizens overseas covered by Social Security are also based on estimates compiled by the Census Bureau. 

The overlap among the components, believed to be small, is ignored.

The first step of the process is to estimate z Px,s as of January 1st for certain “tab years” (1941, 1951, 1957, 1961, 

each decennial Census year [1970 through 2010], and the last year of historical data [2014 for the 2016 Trustees 

Report]). For ages 0-84, z Px,s for each tab year, is set equal to an undercount adjustment plus other component 

populations plus:

• The averaged surrounding July 1 U.S. population and armed forces overseas counts from the 

Census Bureau prior to 1970

• Modified April 1 U.S. populations from the Census Bureau for Census years from 1970 through 

2000.

• The January 1 U.S. population and armed forces overseas counts from the Census Bureau modified 

by OCACT mortality rates and Census USAF net immigration for ages over 65 for 2010 and 2014.

For ages 85 and over, z Px,s for each tab year is set equal to [Built Up Pops Age x, Sex s] * [Total 85+ for Sex 

s]/[Total Built Up 85+ for Sex s], where the built up estimates are created by taking into account deaths and 

immigration data from the previous tab year and [Total 85+ for Sex s] is the sum of the calculated U.S. 

population and armed forces overseas calculated using the same method listed above for each year for ages 0-

84. 

For years between the tab years, populations are estimated taking into account the components of changes due 

to births, deaths, legal emigration, adjustments of status, and net legal immigration (or net immigration, if 

known) during that time period. These estimates are then multiplied by the appropriate age-sex-specific ratios 

so that the error of closure at the tab years is eliminated. 

Equation 1.4.2 – Historical Population by age, sex, and marital status ( z Px,s,m )

Since eligibility for auxiliary benefits is dependent on marital status, the Social Security area population is 

disaggregated by marital status. The four marital states are defined as single (having never been married), 

married, widowed, and divorced.

The distribution of the number of existing marriages are available for Census years 1940 – 2000 from Census 

public use microsample data (PUMS) samples. These data are aggregated by age group of husband crossed 

with age group of wife. Additional tabulations from the American Community Survey from 2000 – 2014 are 

incorporated to adjust these marital prevalence grids for changes since 2000. The grids are transformed from 

age grouped numbers to single year of age figures from ages 14 to 100+ for husband and wife using the two 

dimensional H.S. Beers method of interpolation.

Percentages of single, married, widowed, and divorced persons are calculated by taking the estimate for each 

marital status category and dividing them by the total number of people for each age group and sex based on 

Census and/or ACS PUMS. Then, for each sex, if one age group has a higher or lower percentage than the 

surrounding age groups, an average of the surrounding groups replaces the original value. After verifying the 

percentages are close to the original data (and adjusted if needed), these percentages are multiplied by the total 

populations calculated in Equation 1.4.1 for each age, sex, and year to get a preliminary population for each 

age, sex, and marital status. 
30

To keep the marriage prevalence grids and the marital status percentages smooth and consistent, several 

algorithms are used. First, the married population is adjusted so that the number of married males equals the 

number of married females. Then, the number of married persons for each age and sex is set equal to the 

marginal total of the associated year’s marital prevalence grid. Finally, the other marital statuses population 

totals are adjusted to keep the total number of people in all marital statuses the same as calculated before 

splitting into marital statuses.

The population is modeled to include the following population statuses for December 31, 2013, and later: 

heterosexual, gay, and lesbian. The initial December 31, 2013, gay and lesbian populations are broken out 

assuming 3.0% of the male population is gay and 4.0% of the female population is lesbian. Marriage grids of 

age of older spouse crossed with age of younger spouse for same-sex couples are needed starting December 31, 

2013. The grids and populations were produced using data from the American Community Survey, National 

Survey of Family Growth, and state-level same-sex marriage data.

Equation 1.4.3 – Historical Other Than Legal (OTL) Population by age and sex ( z Ox,s )

This subprocess also estimates historical levels of “other immigrants” in the population, by age and sex. For 

each year, an initial net residual estimate by single year of age and sex is backed out from estimates of

beginning and end of year populations, births, deaths, legal immigrants, adjustments of status, and legal 

emigrants. This net residual equals the implied initial other in minus other out. These residuals are then 

modified to ensure reasonableness. Next, using these modified net residuals, along with adjustments of status 

and OTL deaths (using the same death rates as for the total population), an initial OTL stock is built. These 

stocks are then modified to ensure reasonableness. After 2000, one further adjustment is done to the stocks. 

From January 2001 through January 2004, the total OTL populations are set equal to the values that linearly 

grade from the final OCACT January 2000 total OTL population to a DHS-based January 2005 total OTL 

population. From January 2005 through January 2012, the total OTL population is forced to match DHS-based

total OTL population estimates. The total OTL population from the DHS is equal to the sum of their estimates 

for unauthorized immigrants and nonimmigrants. Nonimmigrants include categories such as students, 

temporary workers, and exchange visitors.
31

1.5. OTHER IMMIGRATION

1.5.a. Overview

The term “other immigration” refers to persons entering the U.S. in a manner other than being lawfully admitted 

for permanent residence and who reside in the U.S. for at least 6 months. This includes temporary immigrants 

(persons legally admitted for a limited period of time, such as temporary workers and foreign students), also 

called nonimmigrants, in addition to undocumented immigrants living in the U.S. These undocumented 

immigrants can be split into those that were never authorized or those that were nonimmigrants but overstayed 

their visas (visa-overstayers). 

For each year z of the projection period, the OTHER IMMIGRATION subprocess produces estimates of otherthan-legal (OTL) immigration ( z OI x,s,t ), by age (x), sex, and OTL type (t) based on assumptions set by the 

Trustees. Estimates of projected other emigration (those leaving the Social Security area, denoted as z OEx,s,t ), 

by age, sex and OTL type are also developed in this subprocess. 

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) estimated the stock of nonimmigrants by age group and sex for 

April 2008 and for the end of 2010. The HISTORICAL POPULATION program already produces historical 

estimates of other-than-legal immigrants. These historical data are used to develop recent estimates of the OTL 

stock by age, sex, and immigration type where immigration type is never-authorizeds, nonimmigrants, and visaoverstayers.

The primary equations of OTHER IMMIGRATION, by age (x), sex (s), and OTL type (t) for each year (z) of 

the 75-year projection period are summarized below:

( ) , , , , = ⋅ z

x s t

z OI x s t OI (1.5.1)

( ) , , , , = ⋅ z

x s t

z OEx s t OE (1.5.2)

z

x s t

z

x s t

z

x s t

z NOx s t OI OE AOS , , = , , − , , − , , (1.5.3)

where z NOx,s,t are the number of net other immigrants, by age (x), sex (s), and OTL type (t) for year z, and 

z AOSx,s,t are the number of adjustments to legal status by age (x), sex (s), and OTL type(t) for year z;

z

x s t

z

x s t

z

x s t

z

x s t

z

x s t

z OPx s t OP OI 1, , OE 1, , AOS 1, , OD 1, ,

1

, , 1, , − − − −

− = − + − − − (1.5.4)

where, z OPx,s,t is equal to the other immigrant population, by age (x), sex (s), and OTL type (t) as of December

31st of year z, z ODx,s,t are the number of deaths in the other immigrant population by age (x), sex (s), and OTL 

type (t) for year z, and z AOSx,s,t are the number of adjustments to legal status by age (x), sex (s), and OTL type 

(t) for year z.

1.5.b. Input Data

Trustees Assumptions -

Each year the Board of Trustees of the OASDI Trust Funds specifies the total annual assumed values for other 

immigration. The ultimate annual level was set at 1,350,000 persons per year for each year beginning in 2022. 
32

Due to the lingering effects of the recent recession, the level of other immigration is estimated at 1,200,000 in 

2014. The Trustees assume other immigration will gradually increase above the ultimate level to 1,550,000 in 

2018 and 2019 followed by a gradual decrease, reaching the ultimate value in 2022.

Long-Range OASDI Projection Data -

Demography

• Historical and projected probabilities of death by age last birthday (including a neonatal mortality factor, 

single year of age for ages 0-99, and age group 100+) and sex, for years 1941-2100. These data are 

updated each year from the MORTALITY program.

• Historical net other immigration by single year of age (0-100+) and sex for years 1961-2013. These data 

are updated each year from the HISTORICAL program.

• Historical December 31 OTLs by single year of age (0-100+) and sex for years 1963-2013. These data 

are updated each year from the HISTORICAL program. 

• Historical July 1 OTLs by single year of age (0-100+) and sex for years 1964-2013. These data are 

updated each year from the HISTORICAL program. 

• Historical new arrivals by single year of age (0-100+) and sex for years 1941-2013. These data are 

updated each year from the LEGAL IMMIGRATION program.

• Historical and projected adjustments of status by single year of age (0-100+) and sex for years 1941-

2100. These data are updated each year from the LEGAL IMMIGRATION program.

Department of Homeland Security –

• Components of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population by year for 2005-2012. These data are updated 

as new data become available.

• Nonimmigrant stock in April 2008 and December 2010 by age-group and sex. These data are updated 

as new data become available and internal resources are sufficient to examine and interpret such new

data.

• Nonimmigrant admissions by class of admission for various fiscal years 1981 – 2012. These data are 

updated as new data become available and internal resources are sufficient to examine and interpret such 

new data.

• Total nonimmigrants from January 1, 2005 – 2012 Unauthorized Reports. These data are updated as 

new data become available.

U.S. Census Bureau –

• From the American Community Survey (ACS), foreign-born new persons by ACS year (2000-2014), 

entry year (1900-2014), age (0-100) and sex. These data are updated as new data become available.

• From the ACS, total foreign-born population and total population for 2000 – 2014, and total population 

in Puerto Rico for 2005 – 2014, used to calculate undercount factors. These data are updated as new 

data become available.

• From the 2012 ACS, persons, by entry year (1900-2012), age (0-100) and sex, that are:

1. Foreign-born citizens

2. Foreign-born non-citizens that are in school or are a high-school graduate

3. Non-citizen parents of citizen children

4. Non-citizen parents of citizen children that are in school or are a high school graduate

These data are not updated.

• From the 2012 ACS, persons, by entry year (1900-2012), age (0-100) and sex, that are eligible for 
33

temporary protected status (TPS) based on originating from various countries by certain dates and:

1. Foreign-born citizens

2. Foreign-born non-citizens that are in school or are a high-school graduate

3. Non-citizen parents of citizen children

4. Non-citizen parents of citizen children that are in school or are a high school graduate

These data are not updated.

Other input data -

• The number of those potentially eligible under the 2012 Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals 

(DACAs) initiative by age group and an overall gender split, from the Migration Policy Institute. These 

data are updated as new data become available and internal resources are sufficient to examine and 

interpret such new data.

• Internally developed numbers of those potentially eligible under the 2014 DACA initiative that were not 

eligible under the 2012 DACA initiative by age and sex, using various estimates from the 2012 ACS 

data listed above, the non-executive action 2015 TR run OTHER IMMIGRATION program, and 

assumptions including foreign-born undercounts in the ACS and percentage felons in the unauthorized 

population. These data are updated as new data become available and internal resources are sufficient to 

examine and interpret such new data.

• Internally developed numbers of those potentially eligible under the Deferred Action for Parents of 

Americans and LPRs (DAPAs) initiative, by age and sex, using various estimates from the 2012 ACS 

data listed above, the non-executive action 2015 TR run OTHER IMMIGRATION program, and 

assumptions including foreign-born undercounts in the ACS, percentage felons in the unauthorized 

population, an inflation factor to ratio up parents of citizens to include parents of LPRs as well, and an 

inflation factor to ratio up counts of parents of citizens and LPRs that do not live with their child. These 

data are updated as new data become available and internal resources are sufficient to examine and 

interpret such new data.

• Internally developed factors of potential DACA stock attaining DACA status by sex and ages 5-100 for 

the initial and ultimate DACA years. These data are updated as new data become available and internal 

resources are sufficient to examine and interpret such new data.

• Internally developed factors of potential DAPA stock attaining DAPA status by sex and ages 5-100 for 

the initial and ultimate DAPA years. These data are updated as new data become available and internal 

resources are sufficient to examine and interpret such new data.

• Internally developed factors to apply to other immigrants that enter as nonimmigrants. These data will 

not be updated.

• Overstay percentages by age. These data are based off a RAND Corporation document using data from 

the 1980s, and are adjusted based on insights from the DHS. These final rates were increased a small 

amount to factor in the effects of the recent 2014 executive actions. These data are updated as new data 

become available and internal resources are sufficient to examine and interpret such new data.

• Internally developed rates of departure for the non-DACA/DAPA potential/actual never-authorizeds for 

non-recent arrivals. These data are updated as new data become available and internal resources are 

sufficient to examine and interpret such new data.

• Internally developed rates of departure for the non-DACA/DAPA potential/actual visa overstayers. 

These data are updated as new data become available and internal resources are sufficient to examine 

and interpret such new data.

• Internally developed rates of departure for non-DACA potential/actual never authorizeds for non-recent 

arrivals to use prior to 2015 (when the Executive Actions went into effect including decreased 

deportation of non-felons). These data are updated as new data become available and internal resources 

are sufficient to examine and interpret such new data.
34

• Internally developed rates of departure for the non-DACA potential/actual visa overstayers to use prior 

to 2015 (when the Executive Actions went into effect including decreased deportation of non-felons). 

These data are updated as new data become available and internal resources are sufficient to examine 

and interpret such new data.

1.5.c. Development of Output

The ACS provides the number of foreign-born new arrivals, which is then used to separate the historical net 

other than legal immigration into those entering and those leaving. There are several other key inputs that go 

into this calculation, including an estimated undercount factor. This factor accounts for (1) differences between 

the foreign-born data from the ACS and the component pieces obtained from DHS, (2) differences between the 

ACS (Public Use Microdata Sample) and Census’ total population, and (3) the foreign-born residing in Puerto 

Rico. The estimated other than legal immigration is calculated by taking the Beers’d foreign born from the 

ACS (after applying the undercount factors) and subtracting the legal new arrivals. The estimated historical 

other than legal emigration is then calculated as the difference between the net other than legal immigration 

(calculated in the HISTORICAL subprocess) and the estimated historical other than legal immigration. A series 

of steps are then taken to smooth the two categories. Assumptions split the historical other immigrants into 

those who arrive or depart the Social Security area as a never-authorized immigrant, nonimmigrant, and visaoverstayer immigrant.

Equation 1.5.1 – Other Immigration

For each projection year, an age-sex-type distribution is used to distribute the aggregate number of other 

immigrants by age, sex, and OTL type. This age-sex distribution is denoted as ODISTx,s,t and is developed by 

using average historical estimates of other immigrants entering the country from 2000 through 2007. 

The assumed total level of other immigration is denoted by z TO . Thus, for each year (z) other immigration is 

defined by the following equation:

x s t

z z OI x,s,t TO ODIST , , = ∗

Equation 1.5.2 – Other Emigration

z OEx,s,t is equal to the annual number of other immigrants who depart the Social Security area by age (x), sex 

(s), and OTL type (t) they left from. These estimates are based on 2014 TR build-up of stocks from 2008 

through 2010 including other immigration discussed above, deaths, adjustments of status (from the LEGAL 

IMMIGRATION subprocess), and assumptions about how many departures come from each OTL type. Deaths 

for the other immigrant population use the same death probabilities as the total population: z

x s t

z

x s

z ODx,s,t = q , OP , ,

Then, rates are calculated by dividing z OEx,s,t by z OPx,s,t for this 2008 – 2010 period at each age, sex, and OTL 

type. After smoothing and adjusting for the effects of the recent recession and the 2014 executive actions, these 

rates are used to calculate z OEx,s,t in projected years by being applied to the OTL stock populations 1

, ,

z− OPx s t for 

the overstayer and nonimmigrant stocks. For the never authorized stock, these rates are further adjusted and 

split into two categories so that recent arrivals are exposed to twice the rates as the residual never authorized 

stock.
35

This subprocess also splits historical OTLs into the various categories. It is assumed that all OTL immigrants 

were nonimmigrants as of December 31, 1963. Between December 31, 1963, and December 31, 2010, the 

percentage of total OTL by age and sex in each OTL category is linearly interpolated from the percentages at 

those two points in time. A final adjustment ensures the total nonimmigrants are appropriate, based on DHS 

nonimmigrant admissions or, if available, stock estimates.

Finally, this subprocess also projects the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) and the Deferred 

Action for Parents of Americans and LPR’s (DAPA) populations, both a subset of the other immigrant 

population, by age (x) and sex (s). The DACA and DAPA populations consists of other than legal immigrants 

who meet the criteria for either initiative and will be granted authorization to work. The eligible DACA 

populations are estimated separately by those that meet the age, residency and educational requirements of the 

initial DACA program implemented in 2012, and also those that meet the requirements of the more recent 

executive actions in 2014, which expand the eligibility requirements. Rates are then applied to the eligible 

population to estimate the net number of individuals who actually apply and obtain DACA status. A similar 

process is done to estimate the eligible and actual DAPA populations for each year in the projection period. 

Both of these populations further divide the never-authorized and visa-overstayer populations.
36

1.6. MARRIAGE

1.6.a Overview

The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) collected detailed data on the annual number of new 

marriages in the Marriage Registration Area (MRA), by age of husband crossed with age of wife, for the period 

1978 through 1988 (excluding 1980). In 1988, the MRA consisted of 42 States and D.C. and accounted for 80 

percent of all marriages in the U.S. Estimates of the unmarried population in the MRA, by single year of age 

(or age group if single year of age was not available) and sex, were obtained from the NCHS. Marriage rates 

for this period are calculated from these data. The age-of-husband crossed with age-of-wife marriage grid rates

are transformed from age grouped numbers to single year of age figures from ages 14 to 100+ for husband and 

wife using the two dimensional H.S. Beers method of interpolation. 

The NCHS stopped collecting data on the annual number of new marriages in the MRA in 1989. Less detailed 

data on new marriages from a subset of the MRA were obtained for the years 1989-1995. The American 

Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata samples (PUMS) started asking if a person was married in the 

last 12 months in 2008. Using this question along with ages of spouses, new marriages grids by age-group-ofhusband crossed with age-group-of-wife were developed. For the years in between the NCHS and ACS data, 

the marriage grids were linearly interpolated. These NCHS and ACS data are used to adjust the more detailed 

age-of-husband crossed with age-of-wife rates from the earlier years.

Age-specific marriage rates ( z mx, y ˆ ) for a given year z are defined as the ratio of (1) number of marriages for a

given age-of-husband (x) crossed with age-of-wife (y) to (2) a theoretical midyear unmarried population at those

ages ( z Px, y ). The theoretical midyear population is defined as the geometric mean16 of the midyear unmarried 

males and unmarried females.

An age-adjusted central marriage rate ( z AMˆR ) summarizes the z mx, y ˆ for a given year. The standard population 

chosen for age adjusting is the unmarried males and unmarried females in the Social Security area population as 

of July 1, 2010. The first step in calculating the total age-adjusted central marriage rate for a particular year is 

to determine an expected number of marriages by applying the age-of-husband-age-of-wife specific central 

marriage rates for that year to the geometric mean of the corresponding age groups in the standard population. 

The z AMˆR is then obtained by dividing:

• The expected number of marriages by 

• The geometric mean of (a) the number of unmarried males, ages 15 and older, and (b) the unmarried 

females, ages 15 and older, in the standard population.

The MARRIAGE subprocess projects annual z mx, y ˆ by age-of-husband crossed with age-of-wife. The equations

for this subprocess, 1.6.1 and 1.6.2, are given below:

z

x y

z mx, y m , ˆ = ˆ (·) (1.6.1)

∑

∑ ∗

=

x y

S

x y

z

x y

x y

S

x y

z

P

P m

AMR

,

,

,

,

, ˆ

ˆ (1.6.2)

 16 The geometric mean, as used in this document, is the square root of the product of two numbers.
37

where and x and y refer to the age of males and females, respectively, and S Px, y is the theoretical unmarried 

population in the Social Security area population as of July 1, 2010 (the geometric mean of the corresponding 

age groups in the standard population).

1.6.b. Input Data

Long-Range OASDI Projection Data -

Demography

• Estimates of the Social Security area population as of December 31, by age, sex, and marital status for 

years 1978-2012, excluding 1980. These data are updated each year based on output of the 

HISTORICAL POPULATION subprocess.

Assumptions -

For each Trustees Report, ultimate values for the z AMˆR are assumed. The z AMˆR reaches its ultimate value 

in the 25th year of the 75-year projection period. For the 2016 report, the intermediate ultimate z AMˆR assumption is 4,000 per 100,000 unmarried couples.

NCHS Data -

• Number of new marriages in the MRA, by age-of-husband crossed with age-of-wife, for calendar years 

1978 through 1988, excluding 1980. These data are no longer available for years after 1988. The data 

vary in detail by year. They are broken out by single year age-of-husband crossed with single year ageof-wife for many ages (particularly younger ages).

• Number of unmarried males and females in the MRA for calendar years 1978 through 1988, excluding 

1980. These data are no longer available for years after 1988. The data are generally broken out by 

single year age for ages under 40 and by age groups 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-74, and 75+. 

• Number of new marriages, in a subset of the MRA, by age-group-of-husband crossed with age-group-ofwife (age groups include 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, and 65+), for calendar years 

1989-1995. These data are updated as new data become available and internal resources are sufficient to 

examine and interpret such new data.

• The total number of new marriages in the MRA less marriages in those states not included in the MRA 

unmarried population for the period 1957-1988. These data are not updated.

• The total number of new marriages in the United States for the period 1989-2012. Normally, each year,

the NCHS publishes the total number of marriages for one more year.

• Number of new marriages in the MRA for years 1979 and 1981-1988 by age group (age groups include 

14-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, and 65+), sex, and prior marital status (single, 

widowed, and divorced). These data are no longer available for years after 1988.

• Number of unmarried people in the MRA for years 1979 and 1981-1988 by age group (age groups 

include 14-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, and 65+), sex, and prior marital status (single, 

widowed, and divorced). These data are no longer available for years after 1988.
38

U.S. Census Bureau Data -

• Estimates of new marriages by age-group-of-husband crossed with age-group-of-wife from the 

American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata samples (PUMS) occurring, on average, end 

of years 2007 – 2013. An additional year of data is available each year.

Other Input Data -

• From the vital statistics offices in various states, number of same-sex marriages from 2004 – 2012. 

These data are updated as they become available.

1.6.c. Development of Output

Equation 1.6.1 -

Age-specific marriage rates are determined for a given age-of-husband crossed with age-of-wife, where ages 

range from 14 through 100+. The historical period includes years of complete NCHS data on the number of 

marriages and the unmarried population in the MRA for the period 1978 through 1988, excluding 1980. Data 

for a subset of the MRA, available by age group only, are used for the period 1989 through 1995, and ACS new 

married grids by age group are used for the period 2008 through 2012. The marriage grids by age group for the 

years 1996 through 2007 are linearly interpolated. The total number of marriages from NCHS are also used in 

the age-specific marriage rate calculations for the provisional period 1989 – 2012. The projection period of the 

MARRIAGE subprocess begins in 2013.

The historical age-specific marriage rates are calculated for each year in the historical period based on NCHS 

data of the number of new marriages by age-of-husband crossed with age-of-wife and the number of unmarried 

persons by age and sex. The formula used in the calculations is given below:

z

x y

z

z x y

x y P

M

m

,

,

,

ˆ

ˆ = , where

• x refers to the age of males and y refers to the age of females;

• z M x, y ˆ is the number of marriages in year z; and

• ( z Px, y ) is the geometric mean of the midyear unmarried males and unmarried females in year z.

The rates for the period 1978 through 198817 are then averaged, graduated, and loaded into an 87 by 87 matrix 

(age-of-husband crossed with age-of-wife for ages 14 through 100+), denoted as MarGrid. This matrix is used 

in the calculation of the age-specific marriage rates for all later provisional years and the years in the projection 

period.

For the provisional period, 1989-2012, the NCHS and ACS provided data on the number of marriages by agegroup-of-husband crossed with age-group-of-wife (age groups include 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-44, 45-

54, 55-64, and 65+). These data are used to change the distribution of MarGrid by these age groups. For each 

age-group-of-husband crossed with age-group-of-wife, the more detailed marriage rates in MarGrid that are 

contained within this group are adjusted so that the number of marriages obtained by using the rates in MarGrid 

match the number implied in the subset. 

 17 Data for 1980 is not available and is excluded from the calculations.
39

For each year of the entire provisional period (1989 – 2012), an expected total number of marriages is 

calculated by multiplying the rates in the MarGrid (or the adjusted MarGrid for years 1989-2012) by the 

corresponding geometric mean of the unmarried males and unmarried females in the Social Security area 

population. All rates in MarGrid (or the adjusted MarGrid for years 1989-2012) are then proportionally 

adjusted to correspond to the total number of marriages estimated in the year for the Social Security area 

population. This estimate is obtained by increasing the number of marriages reported in the U.S. to reflect the 

difference between the Social Security area population and the U.S. population. In addition, we also subtract 

out same-sex marriages from the NCHS data, as we handle those in a later step. The provisional period agespecific rates are then graduated using the Whittaker-Henderson method and are used to calculate the ageadjusted rates for each year. 

The age-adjusted marriage rates are expected to reach their ultimate value in the 25th year of the 75-year

projection period. Rather than use the last year of provisional data to calculate the starting rate, we calculate 

the weighted average of the rates for the past five historical data years to derive the starting value. The annual 

rate of change decreases in absolute value as the ultimate year approaches.

To obtain the age-of-husband-age-of-wife-specific rates for a particular year from the age-adjusted rate 

projected for that year, the age-of-husband-age-of-wife-specific rates in MarGrid are proportionally scaled so as 

to produce the age-adjusted rate for the particular year. The MarGrid rates are then adjusted to produce two sets 

of marriage rates: opposite-sex marriage rates and same-sex marriage rates.

A complete projection of age-of-husband-age-of-wife-specific marriage rates was not done separately for each 

previous marital status. However, data indicate that the differential in marriage rates by prior marital status is 

significant. Thus, future relative differences in marriage rates by prior marital status are assumed to be the same 

as the average of those experienced during 1979 and 1981-1988. 
40

1.7. DIVORCE

1.7.a. Overview

For the period 1979 through 1988, the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) collected data on the 

annual number of divorces in the Divorce Registration Area (DRA), by age-group-of-husband crossed with agegroup-of-wife. In 1988, the DRA consisted of 31 States and accounted for about 48 percent of all divorces in 

the U.S. These data are then inflated to represent an estimate of the total number of divorces in the Social 

Security area. This estimate for the Social Security area is based on the total number of divorces in the 50 

States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Divorce rates for this period are 

calculated using this adjusted data on number of divorces and estimates of the married population by age and 

sex in the Social Security area. 

An age-of-husband (x) crossed with age-of-wife (y) specific divorce rate ( z dx, y ˆ ) for a given year z is defined as 

the ratio of (1) the number of divorces in the Social Security area for the given age of husband and wife ( z Dx, y ˆ ) 

to (2) the corresponding number of married couples in the Social Security area ( z Px, y ) with the given age of 

husband and wife. An age-adjusted central divorce rate ( z ADRx, y ˆ ) summarizes the z dx, y ˆ for a given year. 

The z ADˆR is calculated by determining the expected number of divorces by applying:

• The age-of-husband crossed with age-of-wife specific divorce rates to 

• The July 1, 2010, population of married couples in the Social Security area by corresponding age-ofhusband and age-of-wife. 

The DIVORCE subprocess projects annual z dx, y ˆ by age-of-husband crossed with age-of-wife. The primary 

equations, 1.7.1 and 1.7.2, are given below:

z

x y

z dx, y d , ˆ ˆ = (·) (1.7.1)

∑

∑ ∗

=

x y

S

x y

z

x y

x y

S

x y

z

P

P d

ADR

,

,

,

,

, ˆ

ˆ (1.7.2)

where x and y refer to the age of husband and age of wife, respectively, and S Px, y is the number of married 

couples in the Social Security area population as of July 1, 2010.

1.7.b. Input Data

Long-Range OASDI Projection Data -

Demography

• Social Security area population of married couples by age-of-husband crossed with age-of-wife as of 

December 31 for years 1978-2013. These data are updated each year from the HISTORICAL 

POPULATION subprocess.
41

• The total July 1 population in the Social Security area for years 1979-2012. An additional year of data is 

added for each additional year of divorce data from the NCHS.

• The total July 1 population in the residential population plus armed forces overseas for years 1979-2012. 

An additional year of data is added for each additional year of divorce data from the NCHS.

• The total July 1 population in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands for years 1979-2012. An additional 

year of data is added for each additional year of divorce data from the NCHS.

Assumptions -

Each year, the ultimate assumed value for the age-adjusted divorce rate is established. The rate reaches its 

ultimate value in the 25th year of the 75-year projection period. For the 2016 report, the ultimate assumed z ADˆR is 1,700 per 100,000 married couples. 

NCHS Data -

• The number of divorces in the DRA, by age-of-husband crossed with age-of-wife, for calendar years 

1979 through 1988. These data are no longer available for years after 1988. The data are broken out by 

single year age-of-husband crossed with single year age-of-wife for many ages (particularly younger 

ages).

• The total number of divorces in the United States for the period for 1989-2012. Data is updated when it 

becomes available. 

• The total number of divorces in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands for years 1989-2007. The most 

recent year of data was obtained in 2000; the 2000 figures are used as a proxy for 2001-2007.

18 New 

data are incorporated as they become available and resources are sufficient to validate their use. 

State Divorce Data -

Since NCHS stopped collecting state specific divorce data by age of husband crossed with age of wife, we 

directly contacted various state health departments for their most recent data. We were able to get this data 

from 18 states. The years and age groups available vary by state. In general, the years were from 2009 –

2012. States that had these data available online, or that sent us the data via email, are Alabama, Alaska, 

Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Tennessee, Texas, 

Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

Census Bureau Data –

The number of Divorces for years 2008 – 2012 in Puerto Rico, estimated using the 2008 – 2014 American 

Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata samples (PUMS).

1.7.c. Development of Output

Equation 1.7.1 -

 18 Data for 1988 was used to estimate the number of Puerto Rico and Virgin Island divorces for 1989-1997. 
42

Age-specific divorce rates are calculated for ages 14 through 100+. Detailed NCHS data on the number of 

divorces by age-group-of-husband crossed with age-group-of-wife are available for the period 1979 through 

1988. Provisional data on the total number of divorces in the United States are used for the period 1989 through 

2012. With the data from the various states, we developed an age-group-of-husband crossed with age-group-ofwife grid for 2011.

 

First, the detailed NCHS data on divorces by age group is disaggregated into single year of age of husband (x)

and age of wife (y), for ages 14-100+, using the H.S. Beers method of interpolation. Then, the age-specific 

divorce rates ( z dx, y ˆ ), for each year, z, are calculated for the period 1979-1988 by taking the number of divorces 

(inflated to represent the Social Security area, z Dx, y ) and dividing by the married population in the Social 

Security area at that age-of-husband and age-of-wife ( z Px, y ). The formula for this calculation is given below:

z

x y

z

z x y

x y P

D

d

,

,

,

ˆ ˆ = (1.7.3)

These rates are then averaged, graduated,

19 and loaded into an 87 by 87 matrix (age-of-husband crossed with 

age-of-wife for ages 14 through 100+), denoted as DivGrid. DivGrid is then adjusted using the state data grid 

developed for 2011. DivGrid after 1988 will be equal to a weighted average of the 1988 DivGrid and the state 

data single year grid. This state data single year of age grid is derived by ratioing the 1988 DivGrid cells using 

the original state age-group data. DivGrid will be used in the calculation of the age-specific divorce rates for all 

later years including the projection period.

For each year in the provisional period (1989-2012), an expected number of total divorces in the Social Security 

area is obtained by applying the age-of-husband crossed with age-of-wife rates in DivGrid to the corresponding 

married population in the Social Security area. The rates in DivGrid are then proportionally adjusted so that 

they would yield an estimate of the total number of divorces in the Social Security area. The estimate of total 

divorces is obtained by adjusting the reported number of divorces in the U.S. for (1) the differences between the 

total divorces in the U.S. and in the combined U.S., Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands area, and (2) the difference 

between the population in the combined U.S., Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands area and in the Social Security 

area.

The starting age-adjusted divorce rate is set to a weighted average of the past five years of data. This ageadjusted rate is assumed to reach its ultimate value in the 25th year of the 75-year projection period. The annual 

rate of change decreases in absolute value as the ultimate year approaches.

To obtain age-specific rates for use in the projections, the age-of-husband-age-of-wife-specific rates in DivGrid 

are adjusted proportionally so as to produce the age-adjusted rate assumed for that particular year.

 19 Using the Whittaker-Henderson method of graduation.
43

1.8. PROJECTED POPULATION

1.8.a. Overview

For the 2016 Trustees Report, the starting population for the population projections is the December 31, 2013,

Social Security area population, by age, sex, and marital status, produced by the HISTORICAL POPULATION 

subprocess. (For this section, section 1.8, the term “starting year” refers to the year 2013.) The Social Security 

area population is then projected using a component method. The components of change include births, deaths, 

net legal immigration, and net other immigration. The components of change are applied to the starting 

population by age and sex to prepare estimated populations as of December 31, 2014 and 2015, and to project

the population through the 75-year projection period (years 2016-2090). 

Beginning with December 31, 2013, the historical and projected populations are modeled using the following 

population statuses: heterosexual, gay, and lesbian. The initial December 31, 2013, gay and lesbian populations 

in the HISTORICAL POPULATION program are broken out assuming 3.0% of the male population and 4.0% 

of the female population is gay or lesbian, and the same is true for cohorts born in the PROJECTED 

POPULATION program.

There is a separate equation for each of the components of change as follows:

( ) , , = ⋅ z

s p

z Bs p B (1.8.1)

where z Bs, p is the number of births of each sex (s) by population status (p) born in year z;

( ) , , , , = ⋅ z

x s p

z Dx s p D (1.8.2)

where z Dx,s, p is the number of deaths by age (x), sex (s), and population status (p) that occurs in year z; and

z

x s p

z

x s p

z NI x,s, p = NL , , + NO , , (1.8.3)

where z NI x,s, p is the net total immigration (both legal and other) by age(x), sex (s), and population status (p), 

z NLx,s is the net number of legal immigrants (produced by the LEGAL IMMIGRATION subprocess), and z NOx,s

is the net number of other immigrants (produced by the OTHER IMMIGRATION subprocess). The population 

program further disaggregates these variables by population status.

Once the components of change are calculated, the following equation is used to calculate the Social Security 

area population by age and sex:

z P0,s, p = z

s p

z

s p

z Bs p D NI , − 0, , + 0, , for age = 0

(1.8.4) z Px,s, p = z

x s p

z

x s p

z Px s p D NI , , , ,

1

1, , − + −− for ages > 0 

where z Px,s, p is the population, by age (x), sex (s), and population status (p), as of December 31st of year z.
44

The population is further disaggregated into the following four marital statuses: single (never married), married, 

widowed, and divorced. The following equation shows the population by age (x), sex (s), population status (p), 

and marital status (m) for each year z:

( ) , , , , , , = ⋅ z

x s p m

z Px s p m P (1.8.5)

The children (ages 0-18) population is further disaggregated into the following four parent statuses (i.e., fates): 

both parents survive, only father survives, only mother survives, and both parents deceased. The following 

equation shows the children population by age of child (x), sex of parent (s), age group of parent (g), and fate of 

parent (f) for each year z:

( ) , , , , , , = ⋅ z

x s g f

z Cx s g f C (1.8.6)

1.8.b. Input Data

Long-Range OASDI Projection Data -

Demography

 FERTILITY

• Historical birth rates by single year of age of mother (14-49) for the years beginning with 1941 

and ending with the year prior to the starting year. These data are updated each year.

• Projected birth rates by single year of age of mother (14-49) for the years beginning with the 

starting year and ending with 2100. These data are updated each year.

 MORTALITY

• Historical probabilities of death by age last birthday (including neonatal mortality factor, single 

year of age for ages 0-99, and age group 100+) and sex for years beginning with 1941 and 

ending with the year prior to the starting year. These data are updated each year.

• Projected probabilities of death by age last birthday (including neonatal mortality factor, single 

year of age for ages 0-99, and age group 100+) and sex for the years beginning with the starting 

year and ending with 2100. These data are updated each year.

• Factors to distribute probabilities of death by marital status. They are dimensioned by sex, single 

year of age (ages 14-100+), and marital status. These data are updated each year.

 LEGAL IMMIGRATION

• Projected numbers of legal immigrants who are new arrivals, by single year of age (-1-100) and 

sex for years beginning with the starting year and ending with 2100. These data are updated 

each year. Note that age -1 represents births that occur during the year.

• Projected numbers of legal emigrants by single year of age (-1-100) and sex for years beginning 

with the starting year and ending with 2100. These data are updated each year. Note that age -1 

represents births that occur during the year.

• Projected numbers of legal immigrants who are adjustments of status, by single year of age (-1-

100) and sex for years beginning with the starting year and ending with 2100. These data are 

updated each year. Note that age -1 represents births that occur during the year.

HISTORICAL POPULATION
45

• Social Security area population by single year of age (0-99 and 100+), sex, and marital status for 

the years beginning with 1940 and ending with the starting year in total and broken down by 

population status. These data are updated each year.

• Married couples by single year of age of husband (ages 14-100+) crossed with single year of age 

of wife (ages 14-100+) for the years beginning with 1940 and ending with the starting year in 

total and by marriage type (opposite-sex, same-sex male, and same-sex female). These data are 

updated each year. 

• Other than legal population by age and sex for the years beginning with 1963 and ending with 

the starting year. These data are updated each year.

 OTHER IMMIGRATION

• Projected numbers of other immigrants entering the country by age (-1-100) and sex for years 

beginning with the starting year and ending with 2100. These data are updated each year.

• Projected numbers of other immigrants leaving the country by age (-1-100) and sex for years 

beginning with the starting year and ending with 2100. These data are updated each year.

• Other than legal population by age and sex for the years beginning with the starting year and 

ending with 2100. These data are updated each year.

MARRIAGE

• Projected central marriage rates by single year of age of husband (ages 14-100+) crossed with 

single year of age of wife (ages 14-100+) for each year of the projection period. These data are 

updated each year.

• Projected central same-sex marriage rates by single year of age of spouse1 (ages 14-100+)

crossed with single year of age of spouse2 (ages 14-100+) for each year of the projection period. 

These data are updated each year.

• Averaged and graduated marriage rates for the period 1979 and 1981-1988 by single year of age 

(ages 14-100+), sex, and prior marital status (single, divorced, and widowed). These data are 

updated each year.

• Total number of marriages for the years beginning with 1989 and ending the year prior to the 

starting date. These data are updated each year.

 DIVORCE

• Projected central divorce rates by single year of age of husband (14-100+) crossed with single 

year of age of wife (14-100+) for each year of the projection period. These data are updated 

each year.

U.S. Census Bureau Data -

• CPS data on the average number of children per married couple with children by age group of 

householder (age groups 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, and 55-64) for 1960-

2014. (Note that the program splits the last age group, which is a 10-year age group, into two 5-year 

age groups.) An additional year of data is added each year.

1.8.c. Development of Output

Equation 1.8.1 - Births

The number of births in the Social Security area, z Bx , is computed for each year, z, of the projection period by 

applying the age-specific birth rate to the midyear female population aged 14 to 49 as follows:
46















 + =

+

2

z 1

x

z

z x

x

z

x

FP FP

B b

where,

 z Bx = number of births to mothers age x in year z;

 z

x b = birth rate of mothers age x in year z; and

 z FPx = female population age x at the beginning of year z.

The total number of births in a given year is the sum of the number of births to mothers at each age. This total

number of births is disaggregated by sex by assuming a gender ratio of 104.8 male births for every 100.0 female 

births. The total number of births is also disaggregated by population status by assuming 3.0% of males born 

are gay and 4.0% of females born are lesbian.

Equation 1.8.2 – Deaths

The number of deaths for the Social Security area by age (x), sex (s), and population status (p), z Dx,s, p , is 

computed for each projection year by applying the death probabilities for each age and sex, z

x s q , , to the exposed 

population at the beginning of the year.

z

x s p

z

x s

z Dx,s, p = q , P , ,

Equation 1.8.5 – Disaggregating the population by marital status

Once the population is projected by single year of age, sex, and population status, it is then disaggregated by 

population status into the following four marital states; single, married, widowed, and divorced. Estimates of 

the Social Security area population by single year of age (0-99 and 100+), sex, marital status, and population 

status as of the starting date of the population projection are obtained from the HISTORICAL POPULATION 

subprocess. In addition, the HISTORICAL POPULATION subprocess provides the number of married couples 

by single year of age of husband crossed with single year of age of wife and number of married male/male and 

female/female marriages, single year of age of spouse 1 crossed with single year of age of spouse 2, as of the 

starting date. 

All births are assigned to the single category. For a given age, sex, and population status, deaths are assigned 

by marital status according to the relative differences in death rates by marital status observed for that age and 

sex during the calendar years 1995 and 1996, as determined in the MORTALITY subprocess. For a given age,

sex, and population status immigrants are assigned by marital status according to the beginning of year marital 

distribution of the Social Security area population for that age and sex.

Once the number of marriages, divorces, and widowings during a year are determined, the population by age, 

sex, population status, and marital status is updated to represent end of year. The unmarried population at the 

end of the year is estimated from the population at the beginning of the year by subtracting deaths and 

marriages and adding new immigrants, widows (or widowers), and divorces during the year. The married 

population at the end of the year is estimated from the population at the beginning of the year by reducing the 

population for divorces, widows (or widowers), dissolutions of marriages when both husband and wife dies, and 

by increasing the population for new immigrants and marriages during the year.
47

Numbers of new marriages are determined for each projection year. The annual number of opposite-sex 

marriages occurring at each age of husband crossed with each age of wife is obtained by multiplying the age-ofhusband and-age-of-wife-specific marriage rates with the geometric mean of the midyear unmarried male 

population and the midyear unmarried female population. 

The age-specific midyear unmarried male population20 is estimated from the beginning of the year unmarried 

populations. It is calculated by adjusting the number of unmarried males at the beginning of the year to 

represent midyear using the relationship between the prior beginning of year and the current beginning of year 

unmarried male populations. The midyear female unmarried population is approximated similarly.

The numbers of marriages are then distributed by previous marital status (single, widowed, divorced) in the 

same proportions as would have been produced by applying the previous marital-status-specific marriage rates 

from the MARRIAGE subprocess to the population by marital status at the beginning of the year. 

Numbers of new divorces are determined for each projection year. The number of divorces during a year, 

occurring at each age of husband crossed with each age of wife, is obtained by multiplying the age-of-husband

by age-of-wife divorce rates for that year with the midyear number of married couples in that age crossing. 

The number of age-of-husband by age-of-wife midyear married couples is estimated from the beginning of the 

year married couples. It is calculated by adjusting the number of married couples at the beginning of the year to 

represent midyear using the relationship between the number of married couples at the beginning of the prior 

year and the beginning of the current year.

Marriages and divorces for same-sex couples are calculated similarly.

Widowings are computed by applying general population probabilities of death to the marriage prevalence at 

the beginning of the year. Widowings and deaths by marital status are then reconciled for internal consistency.

Equation 1.8.6 – Disaggregating the children by parent survival status

Once the population is projected by single year of age, sex, population status, and marital status, the number of 

children are then categorized by age of father, age of mother, and orphan status. The HISTORICAL 

POPULATION subprocess provides the historical number of children (ages 0-18), number of women (ages 14-

49), and the number of married couples by single year of age of husband crossed with single year of age of 

wife. The projected number of children (ages 0-18), number of women (ages 14-49), and marriage grid age of 

husband crossed with age of wife is calculated in the projected population.

For women aged 14-49, births are calculated by multiplying the age-specific birth rate, from the FERTILITY 

subprocess, with the average number of women at the corresponding age. The births are then distributed to the 

age of husband in the same proportions as the age of husband crossed with age of wife married couples grid.

Each year the number of children is then rolled forward a year to the next age of husband, age of wife, and child 

age. Parent survival is calculated based on the deaths rates from the MORTALITY subprocess. The number of 

orphans consists of children with at least one parent deceased. The calculated number of children by age of 

father and age of mother must match the number of children in the historical or projected population. To 

accomplish this, the calculated number of children is multiplied by the ratio of the number of children in the 

historical or projected population to the number of children by age of father and age of mother that was 

calculated using the fertility rates. For any remaining difference, an adjustment of one is made for each age of 

husband crossed with age of wife until the total number of children match.

 20 The midyear populations exposed to marriage are the unmarried populations (sum of those single, widowed, and divorced).
48

Once the population is projected by single year of age, sex, population status, marital status, and children, the 

mean number of children per married couple with children is determined by year and age of householder. The 

historical mean number of children by year and age of householder in the population program is calculated from 

the number of children categorized by age of father, age of mother, and the number of married men by age 

group from the HISTORICAL POPULATION subprocess. Linear regression is used to model the relationship 

between the mean number of children in the population program to the mean number of children from the U.S. 

Census Bureau. The regression model is then used to project the mean number of children by age of 

householder in the population program. 
49

Process 2:

Economics
50

2. Economic

The Office of the Chief Actuary uses the Economic process to project OASDI employment and 

earnings-related variables, such as the average wage for indexing and the effective taxable 

payroll. The Economic process receives input data from the Demography process and provides 

output data to the Beneficiaries and the Trust Fund Operations & Actuarial Status processes.

The Economic Process is composed of four subprocesses, U.S. EMPLOYMENT, U.S. 

EARNINGS, COVERED EMPLOYMENT AND EARNINGS, and TAXABLE PAYROLL. As 

a rough overview, U.S. EMPLOYMENT and U.S. EARNINGS project U.S. employment and 

earnings data, respectively, while COVERED EMPLOYMENT AND EARNINGS converts 

these employment and earnings variables to OASDI covered concepts. TAXABLE PAYROLL, 

in turn, converts OASDI covered earnings to taxable concepts, which are eventually used to 

estimate future payroll tax income and future benefit payments. 

U.S. EMPLOYMENT and U.S. EARNINGS produce quarterly output, while the output from 

COVERED EMPLOYMENT AND EARNINGS is annual. TAXABLE PAYROLL produces 

both.

Two appendices are at the end of this documentation. The first appendix, 2-1, provides details for 

most of the equations given in the following descriptions of the Economic process. The second 

appendix, 2-2, provides a listing with explanations of acronyms used in this documentation.
51

2.1. U.S. EMPLOYMENT (USEMP)

2.1.a. Overview

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes historical monthly estimates for civilian U.S. 

employment-related concepts from the Current Population Survey (CPS). The principal measures 

include the civilian labor force (LC) and its two components – employment (E) and 

unemployment (U), along with the civilian non-institutional population (N). The BLS also 

publishes values for the civilian labor force participation rate (LFPR) and the civilian 

unemployment rate (RU). The LFPR is defined as the ratio of LC to N, while the RU is the ratio 

of U to LC, expressed to a base of 100. For many of these concepts, the BLS publishes historical 

data disaggregated by age, gender, marital status, and presence of children.

For various disaggregated groups1, USEMP projects quarterly and annual values for these 

principal measures of U.S. employment and population. Equations 2.1.1 through 2.1.6 outline the 

subprocess’ overall structure and solution sequence for the total economy. We assume that the 

military population (M) will remain constant over the first ten years of the projection horizon

then grow at the same rate as E. We also assume that the sum of N and M will grow at the same 

annual rate projected for the Social Security area population (P) (see Demography Process 

input).

 

M t

= M2015 for t < 2026

M t-1 * (E t/ E t-1) for t > 2026 (2.1.1)

N t = [(N t-1 + M t-1)*( P t/ P t-1)] – M t (2.1.2)

RU = RU(·) (2.1.3)

LFPR = LFPR(·) (2.1.4)

LC = LFPR * N (2.1.5)

E = LC * (1 -RU / 100) (2.1.6)

Note: the superscript t represents the projection year.

The Demography Process estimates historical values for the total Social Security area population 

(P) and an important component, the other immigrant population (OP). OP is further 

disaggregated into components by visa status: those temporarily authorized to reside or work in 

the US (OP_A), those who have overstayed their authorization (OP_NA), and those who were 

never authorized to reside or work in the US (OP_NO). Similarly, USEMP projects annual 

values for E and employed OP (EO), including its visa-status components (EO_A, EO_NA, 

 1 Group disaggregation includes age and gender. Some groups are additionally disaggregated by marital status and 

by presence of children.
52

EO_NO). USEMP also separates EO to those whose earnings are reported and posted to the 

Master Earnings File (EO_MEF), those whose earnings are reported posted to the Earnings 

Suspense File (EO_ESF), those in the underground economy (EO_UND). A further subgroup of 

EO_MEF is also calculated: those who are OASDI covered (EO_MEFC). Equations 2.1.7

through 2.1.14 outline the overall structure of the subprocess used to estimate EO and its 

sub-components.

EO_A = EO_A(·) (2.1.7)

EO_NA = E * OP_NA / N (2.1.8)

EO_NO = E * OP_NO / N (2.1.9)

EO = EO_A + EO_NA + EO_NO (2.1.10)

EO_MEF = EO_MEF(·) (2.1.11)

EO_MEFC = EO_MEFC(·) (2.1.12)

EO_ESF = EO_ESF(·) (2.1.13)

EO_UND = EO – EO_MEF – EO_ESF (2.1.14)

Finally, for each age/gender group, USEMP projects total “at-any-time” employed other 

immigrant population (TEO). EO represents the average weekly employment of the other 

immigrant population during a calendar year. TEO represents the total number of individuals in 

the other immigrant population who had any employment during the calendar year. (EO can be 

roughly viewed as the average number of jobs worked by OP during a calendar year, while TEO 

represents the total number of individuals who worked those jobs.) Effectively, Equations 2.1.15

through 2.1.19 convert every EO age-gender sub-component to an at-any-time TEO age-gender

sub-component counterpart. 

TEO_MEF = TEO_MEF(·) (2.1.15)

TEO_MEFC = TEO_MEFC(·) (2.1.16)

TEO_ESF = TEO_ESF(·) (2.1.17)

TEO_UND = TEO_UND(·) (2.1.18)

TEO = TEO_MEF + TEO_ESF + TEO_UND (2.1.19)

2.1.b. Input Data

Long-Range OASDI Projection Data
53

These data are updated each year.

Demography

• Social Security area population as of year-end (1941 – 2099) by age, marital status 

(single, married, widowed, divorced) and gender (M, F)

• “Other immigrant” population as of year-end (1964 – 2099) by age, gender (M, F), 

and visa status (OP_A, OP_NA, and OP_NO)

• Number of children by age of child and age of mother (1960-2099)

• Life expectancy by age and gender (1950-2099)

• Exit rates (probability of leaving the “other immigrant” population by other than 

death) by age and gender.

• Mortality rates by age and gender (1941-2099)

Trust Fund Operations and Actuarial Status – The Trust Fund Operations and Actuarial 

Status Process provides no input to the Economic Process sections. However, the LFPRs use 

input from the Outgo Process from the prior year’s Trustees Report. That is, the projected 

LFPRs for the 2016 Trustees Report use input from the 2015 Trustees Report that includes 

projections for the disability prevalence rates by age and gender (originally from the 

Beneficiaries subprocess), and the primary insurance amount (PIA) replacement rates by age 

and gender. The disability prevalence rate is defined as the ratio of the number of disabled 

worker beneficiaries to the disability-insured population. The PIA replacement rate is defined 

as the ratio of a hypothetical medium-scaled worker’s PIA to his/her career-average indexed 

earnings level.

Trustees’ Assumptions

Each year the Board of Trustees of the OASDI Trust Funds sets the ultimate average annual 

growth rate values for key economic variables:

• Real wage

• Total economy productivity

• Average hours worked

• Ratio of wages to compensation (RWSD)

• Ratio of compensation to GDP (RWSSY)

• GDP deflator (PGDP)

• Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The Board also sets ultimate values for:

• Annual trust fund real interest rate

• Unemployment rate

These ultimate values are typically reached during the last half of the short-range (first 10 

years) of the projection horizon. Earlier projected values are set to provide a smooth 

transition from the latest actual historical values to the assumed long-range ultimate ones. As 
54

a by-product of this process, values for real GDP, and potential GDP are set. The ratio (RTP) 

of real to potential GDP is an important summary measure of the economic cycle.

The Trustees also agree on the assumed short-range values for the listed variables.

Addfactors

Addfactors are adjustments that move an estimate closer to an expected value. They may be 

used for a variety of reasons associated with data availability, structural changes in the data 

and/or model, and perceived temporary aberrations in recent historical data. Addfactors were 

included on male and female LFPRs starting around age 40 to reflect the effects of projected 

changes in life expectancy.

Other input data

• U.S. armed forces (EDMIL) by age and gender, estimated by the Department of Defense 

and published by the Census Bureau on a monthly basis (1948-2000) by single year of age 

(17 to 64) and gender. These data are no longer produced by Census.

• EDMIL by age and gender, estimated by the Economic Process as the difference in 

monthly resident plus Armed Forces overseas population and the monthly civilian 

population. These two populations are available from the Census Bureau on a monthly basis 

(April 2000 to June 2015) by single year of age (16 to 69) and gender. These data are 

updated several times a year.

• Data for the mobilized military reservist population, by branch of service (September 

2001-September 2015) are reported by the US Department of Defense weekly. This 

subprocess updates the data several times a year.

• Data from the March Supplement of the Joint BLS/Census Current Population Survey 

(CPS) by year (1968-2015), for levels of the civilian noninstitutional population, labor 

force, military, and unemployment. These data are available from the U.S. Census Bureau, 

via DataFerrett, by single year of age (16 to 85+), gender, marital status (never married, 

married with a spouse present, and married with no spouse present), and presence of 

children. These data are updated by the U.S. Census Bureau for the BLS annually. This 

subprocess updates the data every other year (or more often, based on time availability).

•Data from the March Supplement of the CPS by year (1992-2015), for levels of the civilian 

noninstitutional population. These data are available from the U.S. Census Bureau, via 

DataFerrett, by single year of age (16 to 85+), gender, and educational attainment level.

These data are updated by the U.S. Census Bureau for the BLS annually. This subprocess 

updates the data every year, if time availability allows.

• Data from the CPS (1948-2015) for levels of civilian employment, civilian labor force,

civilian unemployment, and civilian noninstitutional population. These data are available 

from the BLS by age group and gender. These data are updated by the BLS monthly. This 
55

subprocess updates the data several times a year.

•Data from the CPS by year (1994-2015), for the civilian noninstitutional population. These 

data are available from the BLS by single year of age (16 to 85+), gender, marital status, 

labor force employment status, and (for those not in the labor force) reason for not being in 

the labor force. These data are updated by the BLS monthly. Monthly data are used to 

calculate annual averages. This subprocess updates the data every year, if time availability 

allows.

• Data from the Current Employment Statistics survey (CES) (1964 (varies) to 2015) for 

establishment employment, average hourly earnings, average weekly earnings, and average 

weekly hours. These data are available from the BLS by sector. These data are updated by 

the BLS monthly. This subprocess updates the data several times a year.

•Unpublished data from the CPS (1965 - October 2015) for male and female civilian labor 

force participation rates for older workers. These data are available from the BLS by single 

year of age (ages 55-79) and by group (75 and over, and 80 and over). These data are 

updated by the BLS monthly. This subprocess updates the data several times a year. 

•The historical resident population is published annually by the Census (1980-2014). These 

data are available by gender and age group. This subprocess uses data for age groups under 

16 and 60 and over. This subprocess updates the data annually.
56

2.1.c. Development of Output

Equation 2.1.3 - Unemployment Rate (RU)

The RU is disaggregated by age and gender. The age groups include 16-17, 18-19, 20-24, 25-

29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, and 75 and over. Thus, 

USEMP contains 28 RU equations, 14 for males and 14 for females. Each disaggregated RU 

is specified using a first-difference model that depends on the distributed lag in the change in 

the ratio of real to potential GDP (RTP) and an adjustment to ensure that values converge to 

its estimated trend level. Coefficients are estimated by regression and constrained to an 

expected aggregate behavior whereby a 2.0 percentage point increase in the RTP elicits a 1.0 

percentage point decrease in the RU. Furthermore, projections are constrained to the ultimate 

age-gender-adjusted RU set by the Trustees. The aggregate age-sex-adjusted RU is 

dependent on the projected distribution of the labor force by age and gender. See Appendix 

2-1 for details on the equations.

Equation 2.1.4 - Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR)

The LFPR is disaggregated by age and gender. Age groups include 16 to 17 (i.e., 16-17), 18-

19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55, 56, ... 99, 100 and over. For age 

groups between 20 and 54, male and female LFPRs are further disaggregated by marital 

status, categories of which include never married, ever married with spouse present, and ever 

married with spouse absent (which includes separated, widowed, and divorced). Female 

LFPRs disaggregated by age (between 20 and 44) and by marital status are further 

disaggregated by presence of own child. The groups for presence of own child include 

females with at least one child under the age of six and females without a child under the age 

of six. Thus, USEMP contains 153 LFPR equations, 69 for males and 84 for females. See 

Appendix 2-1 for details on the equations.

Given the level of demographic disaggregation, the aggregate LFPR is dependent on the 

projected distribution of the population by age, gender, marital status, and presence of own 

child. Each disaggregated LFPR, however, is dependent on the input variables that are most 

relevant to the demographic group. For example, only the LFPRs for relevant older workers 

are dependent on changes to the normal retirement age (NRA). Specific examples of the 

impact of input data on the disaggregated LFPRs are presented below.

• Disability prevalence ratio (RD) is defined as the ratio of disabled worker beneficiaries to 

the disability-insured population. An increase in RD lowers the LFPR. RD is adjusted 

with a multiplicative factor defined as the group’s average historical LFPR over a 15-year 

period. This adjustment implicitly assumes that disability can strike any person in the 

population with equal probability. For ages 62 to NRA, RDs are not “pure” RDs in that 

they are subject to the confounding effect of the availability of retirement benefits. For 

example, at age 62, a marginally disabled individual may opt to begin receiving retirement 

benefits rather than go through an uncertain disability application/appeals process. For 

ages NRA and above, RDs are unavailable because at the NRA all disabled-worker 

beneficiaries become retired-worker beneficiaries. To avoid these problems, RDs for ages 
57

62-74 are set to their cohort RD at age 61. For example, the RD for males age 62 in year 

(t) is set to the RD for males age 61 in year (t-1). For those ages 75 and older, the lagged 

cohort variable provides information on the influence of disability prevalence rates on 

labor force participation.

• The unemployment rate (RU) is a measure of the economic cycle. An increase in the 

lagged and current unemployment rate leads to a decrease in the LFPR. The RU affects 

most LFPRs.

• The normal retirement age (NRA) is assumed to affect the LFPRs for those age 62 

through 69 through an earnings test and replacement rate. The replacement rate is defined 

as the ratio of a hypothetical worker’s PIA to career-average wage level. This value is 

projected for hypothetical workers with medium-scaled earnings patterns2 who retire at 

ages 62 through 69. The replacement rate is adjusted to include the reduction for early 

retirement and the delayed retirement credit. An increase in the NRA decreases the

adjusted replacement rates, which, in turn, leads to increases in the LFPRs for those 

between the ages of 62 and 69. The potential earnings test tax rate (POT_ET_TXRT) is 

used in LFPRs between 62 and 69. It is defined as a tax rate on monthly retirement 

benefits faced by an individual who opts to collect Social Security benefits before 

reaching NRA while continuing to work and earn income. An increase in the NRA from 

66 to 67 leads to an increase in the potential tax rate for those age 66, which, in turn, leads 

to a decrease in their LFPR.

• The education distribution of the workforce increases the LFPRs if the level of educational 

attainment increases.

• The proportion of females with children under age of 6 and their average number of 

children under age 6 are functions of the ratio of the number of children under age 6 to 

mothers in each 5-year age group for ages between 20 and 44. For females aged 20 to 44 

with at least one own child, an increase in the average number of children lowers the 

LFPR.

• A LFPR increases with its lagged cohort. Lagged cohort variables affect female LFPRs 

age 55 and over, and male LFPRs age 75 and over.

• The LFPRs for males age 62 through 74 increase with spousal LFPRs.

• For those approximately age 40 and over, an increase in life expectancy leads to an 

increase in LFPRs .

Equation 2.1.7 to 2.1.19 – Employed Other Immigrant Population (EO) and At-Any-Time 

Employed Other Immigrant Population (TEO)

EO is estimated by gender and single-year of age from 16 to 100 based on OP and estimated 

employment-to-population ratios by visa-status component (OP_A, OP_NA, OP_NO). For 

this purpose, OP_A is further disaggregated into subgroups by visa type that differ in 

employment patterns or OASDI coverage status. The other two components are assumed to 

have equal employment-to-population ratio as the legal permanent resident population of the 

same age and gender. This portion of USEMP contains 4,250 equations, for 85 ages, 2 

genders, and 25 components and subgroups. We separate EO_NO into those who worked in 

 2 More details on the hypothetical scaled workers are provided in Actuarial Note #2005.3, located at the following 

internet address: www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/NOTES/ran3/index.html.
58

2001 and earlier and those who began working in 2002 and later, since we believe that those 

who worked in 2001 and earlier are more likely to have OASDI covered wages. Each 

component is then further separated into EO_MEF, EO_MEFC, EO_ESF, and EO_UND. 

Every EO sub-component by age, gender, and visa status is converted to its age-gender TEO 

sub-component counterpart using an age-gender conversion weight. For example, if the 

sub-component of EO is for never authorized males age 20 to 24, the conversion weight is 

defined as the ratio of total economy-wide at-any-time employed males age 20 to 24 

(TEM2024) to the sum of military and CPS civilian male employment age 20 to 24. For 

authorized workers and students on temporary visas, conversion weights take into account 

their partial presence in the year of arrival and the year of departure.
59

2.2. U.S. EARNINGS (USEAR)

2.2.a. Overview

In the CPS data, E is separated by class of worker. The broad categories include wage and salary 

workers (EW), the self-employed (ES), and unpaid family workers (EU). For the nonagricultural 

sector, a self-employed participation rate (SEPR) is defined as the ratio of ES to E, the 

proportion of employed persons who are self-employed. For the agricultural sector, the SEPR is 

defined as the ratio of ES to the civilian noninstitutional population. 

USEAR projects quarterly values for these principal classes of employment. Equations 2.2.1 

through 2.2.4 outline the subprocess’ overall structure and solution sequence.

SEPR = SEPR(·) (2.2.1)

ES = SEPR * E (2.2.2)

EU = EU(·) (2.2.3)

EW = E - ES - EU (2.2.4)

In the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA), the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) 

publishes historical quarterly estimates for gross domestic product (GDP), real GDP, and the 

GDP price deflator (PGDP). PGDP is equal to the ratio of nominal to real GDP. Potential (or 

full-employment) GDP is a related concept defined as the level of real GDP that is consistent 

with a full-employment aggregate RU.

USEAR projects quarterly values for these output measures. Potential GDP is based on the 

change in full-employment values for: (1) E (including U.S. armed forces), (2) average hours 

worked per week, and (3) productivity. Full-employment values for E are derived by solving 

USEMP under full-employment conditions, while the full-employment values for the other 

variables (average hours worked and productivity) are set by assumption. RTP is the ratio of real 

GDP to Potential GDP and is set by assumption. RTP reaches 1.0 in the short-range period and 

remains at 1.0 thereafter. Projected real GDP is set equal to the product of potential GDP and 

RTP. Nominal GDP is the product of real GDP and PGDP. The growth rate in PGDP is set by 

assumptions.

The BEA also publishes quarterly values for the principal components of U.S. earnings, 

including total wage worker compensation (WSS), total wage and salary disbursements (WSD), 

and total proprietor income (Y). These concepts can be aggregated and rearranged. Total 

compensation (WSSY) is defined as the sum of WSS and Y. The total compensation ratio 

(RWSSY) is defined as the ratio of WSSY to the GDP. The income ratio (RY) is defined as the 

ratio of Y to WSSY. The earnings ratio (RWSD) is defined as the ratio of WSD to WSS. 
60

USEAR projects quarterly values for these principle components of U.S. earnings using 

Equations 2.2.5 through 2.2.11.

RWSSY = RWSSY(·) (2.2.5)

WSSY = RWSSY * GDP (2.2.6)

RY = RY(·) (2.2.7)

Y = RY * WSSY (2.2.8)

WSS = WSSY - Y (2.2.9)

RWSD = RWSD(·) (2.2.10)

WSD = RWSD * WSS (2.2.11)

2.2.b. Input Data

Long-Range OASDI Projection Data

Demography- (See Section 2.1.b.)

Economics - Data from Section 2.1 include the total employed (E), E by age and gender, 

LFPRs by age and gender, the aggregate unemployment rate (RU), and the full-employment 

concepts for LC, RU, and E.

Trustees Assumptions - (See Section 2.1.b.)

Addfactors

Addfactors were included on some employment and output variables to smooth the transition 

between the latest historical data and the projected values. The need for addfactors is 

reviewed each year and they are implemented if necessary.
61

Other input data

• Data from the NIPA (1929 (varies) to 2015) for GDP, income, wages, compensation, 

personal consumption expenditures, investment, employer contributions for employee 

pension and insurance funds, and employer contributions for government social insurance.

They are published by the BEA quarterly and/or annually. This subprocess updates the 

data several times a year.

• Ratio of OASDI covered to NIPA wages, and ratio of OASDI taxable to covered wages. 

NIPA wages by sector are available quarterly and annually from 1947 to 2015. They are 

published by the BEA and updated several times during the year. OASDI covered and 

taxable wages (1971 to 2013) are updated annually by the Economic process. Covered and 

taxable data for more recent historical years are estimated from preliminary tabulations of 

Form 941 and W-2 data. Projected values for covered ratios are set to the latest historical 

year for the military, state and local, farm, and private household sectors. The projected

value for the federal civilian sector covered ratio is projected to grow to 1.0 by 2030. The 

projected values for the private non-farm business and the private sector vary with the 

relative size of the other immigrant population. 

• OASDI employee, employer, and self-employed tax rates from 1937 to 2099. These 

contribution rates are set according to the Social Security Act of 1935 as amended through 

2015. The rates are updated when legislation mandates a change.

• The October ratio of the number of teenagers enrolled in school to the civilian 

noninstitutional population by gender and age group (16-17 and 18-19) for the period 

1947 to 2015. An additional new year of data from the Census Bureau is usually available 

for including in preparation of the next annual Trustees Report. Projected values are set to 

levels from the latest historical year.

• The historical Consumer Price Index (CPI) is published monthly by the BLS. This 

subprocess updates the data several times a year.

• The historical CPI for medical services is published monthly by the BLS. Quarterly values 

are projected based on the projected growth in the aggregate CPI and an additional 

amount defined as the growth rate differential in the two price measures that was assumed 

in the latest President’s Fiscal Year Budget. The series is updated annually.

• U.S. armed forces (EDMIL) by age and gender were estimated by the Department of 

Defense and published by the Census Bureau on a monthly basis (1948-2000) by single 

year of age (17 to 64) and gender. These data are no longer produced by Census.

• EDMIL by age and gender are estimated by the Economic process as the difference in the 

monthly resident plus Armed Forces overseas population and the monthly civilian 

population. These two populations are available from the Census Bureau on a monthly 

basis (April 2000 to June 2015) by single year of age (16 to 69) and gender. These data 

are updated several times a year.
62

• Wages for railroad workers are wages covered by the Railroad Retirement Act. The 

annual data are for the period 1971 to 2013. An additional year of data from the Railroad 

Retirement Board is usually available for including in preparation of the next annual 

Trustees Report.

• Unpublished data from the CPS (1988-2015) on employment by class of worker (i.e., 

agricultural, non-agricultural, unpaid family, private industry, government, wage and 

salary, self-employed). These data are available from the BLS by age group and gender. 

These data are updated by the BLS annually. This subprocess updates the data annually.

• Data from the NIPA (1947-2015) for wages and compensation of households and 

institutions are published by the BEA quarterly. This subprocess updates the data several 

times a year.

• Other program-related parameters, including the average indexing wage, the benefit 

increase, the taxable maximum, and the annual retirement earnings test exempt amounts, 

are obtained annually from the Short-Range section of OCACT. This subprocess updates 

the data annually.

• Unpublished data from the CES & CPS for total hours worked in the economy. These data 

are available from the BLS. These data are updated by the BLS quarterly (1948-2015) and 

annually (1948-2014). This subprocess updates the data several times a year.

• The Federal minimum hourly wage is based on the Fair Labor Standards Act from the 

Department of Labor for 1938 to 2014. The wage is updated when there is legislation 

mandating a change.

• Time trends (set by Economic process) are used in the agriculture sector for employment, 

real output, and compensation in the short-range period. These short-range trends are 

extended for each year’s Trustees Report, reflecting a new short-range period.

2.2.c. Development of Output

Equation 2.2.1 - Self-Employed Participation Rate (SEPR)

The SEPR is disaggregated by age, gender, and industry. The age groups include 16-17, 18-

19, 20-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, and 65 and over. The industry groups include 

agriculture and non-agriculture.

For the non-agriculture sector, the SEPRs by age and gender are defined as the ratio of the 

non-agriculture self-employment to total employment. Thus, the aggregate non-agriculture 

SEPR is dependent on the projected distribution of employment by age and gender. All nonagriculture SEPRs by age and gender are dependent on the RTP. Increases in the RTP lead to 

decreases in the SEPRs. For female age groups between 20 and 64, the non-agriculture 

SEPRs are also dependent on the groups LFPRs. Increases in the LFPRs lead to increases in 
63

the SEPRs.

For the agriculture sector, the male SEPRs by age are defined as the ratio of agriculture selfemployment to the civilian noninstitutional population. Thus, the aggregate agriculture SEPR 

for males is dependent on the projected distribution of the population by age. The agriculture 

SEPRs for males by age are dependent on the ratio of total agriculture employment (EA) to 

the total civilian population aged 16 and over. (EA is projected in a farm sub-program. Real 

farm output is projected to increase with the population, while farm productivity, defined as 

output per worker, is projected to continue to follow its historical trend. EA is projected as 

the ratio of farm output to farm productivity.) An increase in the ratio of EA to the total 

civilian population aged 16 and over leads to an increase in the agriculture SEPRs for males.

The female SEPRs by age for the agriculture sector are defined as the ratio of the female to 

male agriculture self-employment. Thus, the aggregate agriculture SEPR for females is 

dependent on the projected distribution of male agriculture employment by age. For female 

age groups age 18 and over, the SEPRs are dependent on the RTP and the corresponding 

ratio of total female to male employment. Generally, an increase in the RTP leads to 

increases in the SEPRs. An increase in the total employment ratio also leads to an increase in 

the SEPR. 

Equation 2.2.3 - Unpaid Family Workers (EU)

EU is disaggregated by age, gender, and industry. The age groups include 16-17, 18-19, 20-

24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, and 65 and over. The industry groups include agriculture and 

non-agriculture.

From 1970 to 2014, the level of EU fell from about 0.5 to 0.02 million in the agriculture 

sector and from about 0.5 to 0.06 million in the nonagriculture sector. For projections, the 

levels of EU by age and gender in the agriculture sector are assumed constant at about five 

thousand or less. The EUs by age and gender in the nonagriculture sector are projected as a 

constant ratio to ES. 

Equation 2.2.5 - Total Compensation Ratio (RWSSY)

The Trustees set the ultimate annual growth rate for RWSSY. For the short-range period, 

total WSS, WSD, and Y are aggregated from sector components. Total GDP, WSS, and 

WSD are divided into the farm and nonfarm sectors. The nonfarm sector is further separated 

into the government and government enterprises, households, non-profit institutions, and 

residual (private nonfarm business excluding government enterprises (PBNFXGE)) sectors. 

Total Y is divided into the farm and residual (i.e., PBNFXGE) sectors.

The methodology used to estimate GDP, WSS, WSD, and Y differs by sector.

Farm - Nominal GDP is the product of real GDP and the farm price deflator. Real farm GDP 

is projected from estimates of real farm per capita output. EA is projected from estimates of 

farm productivity. EAW is projected to continue its historical increase relative to EA. Farm 
64

compensation (WSSPF) is the product of estimates for average farm compensation 

(AWSSPF) and EAW, while farm proprietor income (YF) is the product of estimates of 

average farm proprietor income (AYF) and EAS. AYF is projected based, in part, on the 

growth in AWSSPF.

Government and Government Enterprises - This sector is further disaggregated to Federal 

Civilian, Federal Military, and State and Local. In each sector, WSD is the product of 

estimates for average wages and employment. WSS is the sum of WSD and estimates for 

non-wage components of compensation. GDP is the sum of WSS and estimates of 

consumption of fixed capital.

Household - WSS is the product of estimates for average compensation and employment. 

WSD is WSS less employer contributions for the OASDHI tax. GDP is the sum of WSS and 

the gross value added of owner-occupied housing.

Nonprofit Institutions - The Nonprofit Institutions sector is further disaggregated to Health, 

Education, and Social Services sectors. In each sector, WSS is the product of estimates for 

average compensation and employment. WSD is WSS less the estimates for non-wage 

components of compensation. GDP is WSS plus a residual component of output.

Private Nonfarm Business Excluding Government Enterprises (PBNFXGE) - GDP in the 

PBNFXGE sector is total economy-wide GDP less the sum of the other sector GDPs. WSS is 

projected as a ratio to GDP less Y. The ratio is projected to be mostly stable, varying only 

temporarily with changes in RTP. Y is projected to grow with GDP and the ratio of EAS to 

total employment in the sector.

Thus, total labor compensation (WSSY) is summed from sector components, while the total 

compensation ratio (RWSSY) is the ratio of total WSSY to total GDP. It is important to note 

that the pure program-generated estimate for the total RWSSY is adjusted to ensure a smooth 

transition between the latest historical data and the Trustees’ ultimate assumptions.

Equation 2.2.7 - Income Ratio (RY)

Y is disaggregated to the farm and PBNFXGE sectors. (see description for Equation 2.2.5)

Equation 2.2.10 - Earnings Ratio (RWSD)

In the NIPA, the difference between WSS and WSD is defined as employer contributions for 

employee pension and insurance funds (OLI) and employer contributions for government 

social insurance (SOC). OLI is mostly health and life insurance, and pension and profit 

sharing. SOC is composed of employer contributions to Federal and State & Local 

government social insurance funds. Federal government funds include OASDI, HI, UI, and 

other small groups. State and Local government funds mostly include workers’ 

compensation.

RWSD is defined as the ratio of WSD to WSS. RWSD is projected to mostly decline on a 
65

year-by-year basis over the entire 75-year projection horizon due to projected increases in

employer contributions to employee group health insurance premiums (ECEGHIP) and 

pensions. ECEGHIP is projected by the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) 

and is consistent with new health care legislation enacted in 2010. Employer contributions to 

employee pension funds are assumed to increase as life expectancy increases.
66

2.3. OASDI COVERED EMPLOYMENT AND EARNINGS (COV)

2.3.a. Overview 

Total at-any-time employment (TE) is defined as the sum of total OASDI covered employment 

(TCE) and total noncovered employment (NCE). TCE can be decomposed to workers who only 

report OASDI covered self-employed earnings (SEO) and to wage and salary workers who 

report some OASDI covered wages (WSW). Combination workers (CMB_TOT) are those who 

have both OASDI covered wages and self-employed income. Workers with some selfemployment income (CSW) are the sum of SEO and CMB_TOT.

COV projects annual values for TE and the principle measures of OASDI covered employment. 

Equations 2.3.1 through 2.3.9 outline the overall structure and solution sequence used to project 

these concepts. The combination employment ratio (RCMB) is defined as the ratio of 

CMB_TOT to WSW.

(Equation 2.3.1 not used in this version.) (2.3.1)

TE = TE(·) (2.3.2)

NCE = NCE(·) (2.3.3)

TCE = TE - NCE (2.3.4)

SEO = SEO(·) (2.3.5)

WSW = TCE - SEO (2.3.6)

RCMB = RCMB(·) (2.3.7)

CMB_TOT = RCMB * WSW (2.3.8)

CSW = SEO + CMB_TOT (2.3.9)
67

Total OASDI covered earnings is defined as the sum of OASDI covered wages (WSC) and total 

covered self-employed income (CSE_TOT). Both components can be expressed as ratios to their 

U.S. earnings counterparts. The covered wage ratio (RWSC) is defined as the ratio of WSC to 

WSD, while the covered self-employed ratio (RCSE) is the ratio of CSE_TOT to Y.

COV projects annual values for the principal measures of OASDI covered earnings using 

Equations 2.3.10 through 2.3.13.

RWSC = RWSC(·) (2.3.10)

WSC = RWSC * WSD (2.3.11)

RCSE = RCSE(·) (2.3.12)

CSE_TOT = RCSE * Y (2.3.13)

COV projects various annual measures of average OASDI covered earnings, including the 

average covered wage (ACW), average covered self-employed income (ACSE), and average 

covered earnings (ACE). 

ACW = WSC / WSW (2.3.14)

ACSE = CSE_TOT / CSW (2.3.15)

ACE = (WSC + CSE_TOT) / TCE (2.3.16)

The average wage index (AWI) is based on the average wage of all workers with wages reported 

on Forms W-2 and posted to the Master Earnings File (MEF). By law, it is used to set the 

OASDI contribution and benefit base (TAXMAX).

COV projects annual values for the AWI and TAXMAX.

AWI = AWI(·) (2.3.17)

TAXMAX = TAXMAX(·) (2.3.18)

2.3.b. Input Data

Long-Range OASDI Projection Data

Demography - (See Section 2.1.b.)

Economics- Employment and earnings-related data from Sections 1.1 and 1.2.
68

Trustees Assumptions - (See Section 2.1.b.)

Addfactors

Addfactors were included on some employment variables to smooth the transition from the 

latest historical data to program estimates. The need for addfactors is reviewed each year and 

they are implemented if necessary. 

Other input data

• Ratios of OASDI covered to NIPA wages by sector. NIPA wages by sector are 

available quarterly and annually from 1947 to 2015. They are published by the BEA 

and updated several times during the year. OASDI covered wages (1971 to 2013) are 

updated annually by the Economic process. Covered data for the latest historical year 

are estimated from tabulations of Form 941 and W-2 data.

• U.S. armed forces (EDMIL) by age and gender were estimated by the Department of 

Defense and published by the Census Bureau on a monthly basis (1948-2000) by 

single year of age (17 to 64) and gender. These data are no longer produced by 

Census.

• EDMIL by age and gender are estimated by the Economic process as the difference in 

the monthly resident plus Armed Forces overseas population and the monthly civilian 

population. These two populations are available from the Census Bureau on a 

monthly basis (April 2000 to October 2015) by single year of age (16 to 69) and 

gender. These data are updated several times a year.

• Railroad employment is covered by the Railroad Retirement Act. The annual 

historical data are for the period 1971 to 2013. An additional new year of historical 

data from the Railroad Retirement Board is usually available for inclusion in 

preparation of the next annual Trustees Report.

• Data obtained from Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics (ORES) are 

tabulations of quarterly Form 941 data. Data currently used are the OASDI, HI, and 

income taxable wages by sector for the most recent five years. The data represent 

changes in reported wages since the prior quarterly report. The most recent data are 

appended to previously reported data. Annual totals are computed and used to derive 

estimates of OASDI covered wages by sector for the latest historical years.

• Data obtained from the most recently available 1.0% CWHS active file, maintained 

on Social Security’s mainframe and made available by ORES. The years of data are 

1951 to the third year prior to the current Trustees Report year. The data are used for 

comparison of OASDI covered earnings from other sources.
69

• Data obtained from extracting information from the 1.0% Employee-Employer Files, 

maintained on Social Security’s mainframe and made available by ORES. Each year 

two files are created: a Version 1 file for the third year prior to the current Trustees 

Report and a Version 3 file for the fifth year prior to the current Trustees Report. Data 

currently being used are government and farm sector OASDI, HI, and total wages and 

employment. Data from the latest files are used to estimate OASDI covered wages for 

the years available on each file.

• Data obtained from quarterly IRS Form 941 files, provided by Office of Systems 

(OS). Data currently used are the OASDI and HI taxable wages for 1978 to the most 

recent year available. The data represent changes in reported wages since the prior 

quarterly report. The most recent data are appended to previously reported data. 

Annual totals are computed and used to derive estimates of HI taxable wages, which 

are then used to develop OASDI covered wages for the most recent historical years.

• Data from the Quarterly EPOXY Report, received in hard-copy and, more recently, 

electronic formats obtained from OS. The data currently used are the number of 

workers with OASDI taxable earnings, number of workers with HI taxable earnings, 

distribution of number of HI workers by wage intervals, distribution of number of 

OASDI workers by wage intervals, number of persons with OASDI taxable wages, 

number of persons with HI taxable wages, number of persons with OASDI taxable 

self-employment earnings, and number of persons with HI taxable self-employment

earnings. 

• Data obtained from the Quarterly Trust Fund Letter, received from Office of 

Financial Policy and Operations (OFPO). Data currently used are OASDI and HI 

taxable wages accumulated from all Forms 941 and W-2 to date, and changes in selfemployment earnings and self-reported tips since the prior Letter. These data are for 

years 1978 to the most recent year available.

• Data obtained from OS on amounts of OASDI taxable wages on the Earnings 

Suspense File for 1937 through the second year prior to the current Trustees Report 

year. The data are used in estimating total OASDI covered employment.

2.3.c. Development of Output

Equation 2.3.2 - Total Employment (TE)

Based on the CPS, BLS estimates the total number of persons with any work experience 

(WE) during a calendar year. Average weeks worked (AWW) during a calendar year is 

defined as AWW = E * 52 / WE. Based on a 100 percent count of earnings reports (i.e., 

Form W-2 and Schedule SE) tabulated by SSA, OCACT estimates the total number of 

persons employed at any time during a calendar year (TE). Compared to WE, TE is a broader 

measure of employment. WE is an estimate of the number of workers in the civilian noninstitutional US population age 16 and over. TE is an estimate of employment in the broader 
70

Social Security area population, which includes U.S. territories, the military, and institutions. 

TE also includes employment of workers who age 15 and younger.

AWW is disaggregated by gender and age and is projected as a function of a time trend and 

unemployment rate. WE is projected as (E * 52) / AWW. TE is projected as the product of 

its lagged value and the growth rate for WE. TE is adjusted by two multiplicative factors due 

to differences between E and TE over the recent historical period. The first factor accounts 

for the difference in growth between N and P between the last historical value for TE and the 

last historical value for E. The second factor adjusts the model estimate to the value of our 

most recent historical year, and our latest estimate based on partial quarterly data for that 

year.

Equation 2.3.3 - Non-Covered Employment (NCE)

NCE is disaggregated by age and gender. Age groups include 14-15, 16-17, 18-19, 20-24, 

25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, and 70 and over. 

Employment may not be OASDI covered for a variety of reasons mostly related to the type 

of work. Consequently, NCE is further disaggregated to the type-of-work components listed 

below.

Federal Civilian Government - All Federal civilian employees are HI (i.e., Medicare) 

covered. All Federal Civilian employees hired in January 1984 and later are covered under 

the Federal Employees Retirement System (FERS) and are OASDI covered. Employees hired 

before January 1984 are covered under the Civil Service Retirement System (CSRS) and are 

not OASDI covered. This “closed group” of relatively older CSRS employees is projected to 

fall to near zero by 2030.

State and Local Government - In 1983, about 70 percent of State and Local Government 

(S&L) employment and wages were covered under OASDI and HI. Beginning April 1986, 

all newly hired S&L employees were covered under HI. Beginning January 1990, all S&L 

employees not under an S&L retirement system were covered under OASDHI.

By 2013, about 28 and 4 percent of S&L employment (and wages) are still not covered under 

OASDI and HI respectively. The closed group of relatively older S&L employees not 

covered under HI is projected to fall to near zero by 2030. S&L employment not covered 

under OASDI is projected to grow at about the same rate as the labor force.

Students at Public Schools - Prior to 2000, students working at S&L public schools were 

covered under OASDI and HI if the other school employees were covered. In 2000, 

legislation offered an “open season” allowing schools to remove their students from 

coverage. Virtually all major schools opted for removal. Hence, almost no students working 

at their public schools are covered under OASDI or HI. Students at public schools are 

projected to grow at about the same rate as the population aged 18 to 24.

Election Workers - Most S&L election workers are subject to an earnings test and are not 

covered under OASDHI. The earnings test was raised from $100 to $1,000 beginning 
71

January 1995 and indexed beginning in 2000. Election workers are projected to grow at 

about the same rate as LC.

Private Household - The threshold for coverage of domestic employees’ earnings was raised 

from $50 per calendar quarter to $1,000 per calendar year (CY) per employee. Domestic 

workers are no longer covered if under age 18. Private household employment is projected to 

grow at about the same rate as E and vary with RTP. 

Students at Private Schools - All students working in private schools are not covered under 

OASDHI. Students at private schools are projected to grow at about the same rate as the 

population aged 18 to 24.

Railroad - Employers do not submit payments for payroll taxes to the IRS for railroad 

employees. Railroad employees are projected by the Railroad Retirement Board.

Underground Economy Workers - Set to the at-any-time employed in the other immigrant 

population who have no reported earnings and therefore are part of the underground 

economy (i.e., TEO_UND). 

Foreign Students and Exchange Visitors

Equation 2.3.5 - Self-Employed Only (SEO)

SEO is projected to grow at the same rate as ES.

Equation 2.3.7 - Ratio of Combination Workers (RCMB)

Total CMB_TOT can be separated into two groups depending on whether they have OASDI 

covered wages under or over the TAXMAX. CMB_TOT with covered wages under the 

TAXMAX have taxable wages and self-employed income. CMB_TOT with covered wages 

over the TAXMAX have taxable wages only. CMB_TOT with covered wages over the 

TAXMAX would have paid taxes on their self-employed income if the TAXMAX had been 

eliminated. 

Total CMB_TOT is projected as a ratio to WSW. This ratio is dependent on the RTP. If RTP 

rises, then the CMB_TOT increases.

Equation 2.3.10 - Ratio of Covered Wages (RWSC)

RWSC is disaggregated by the following sectors: Federal Civilian government, Federal 

Military, S&L government, and Private.

Federal Civilian government - Total Federal civilian employment and wages are split by 

retirement system. Those under FERS are OASDI covered, while those under CSRS are not. 

Hence, the RWSC for the Federal civilian employment is defined as the ratio of wages for 
72

employment under FERS to total Federal civilian wages. Employment and wages are 

projected for workers under each retirement system. Employment under CSRS is a closed 

group that is expected to fall to zero by about 2030. Employment under FERS is defined as 

total Federal employment less employment under CSRS. Total Federal civilian employment 

is projected to be constant over the short-range period, and about equal to the growth in the 

LC thereafter. The growth rates in the average wage for those under CSRS and FERS are 

projected based on, for the first five years, pay raises assumed under the most recent OMB 

FY Budget and on the growth rate in the CPI. 

Federal Military - The RWSC for the Federal military sector is projected to remain constant 

at its latest actual historical level.

S&L government - The RWSC for the S&L government sector is projected to remain 

constant at its latest actual historical level.

Private - The private sector is separated into sub-sectors including private households, farm, 

railroad, tips, and a residual private “base”. The RWSCs for the private household and farm 

sub-sectors are projected to remain constant at their latest actual historical levels. By 

definition, the RWSCs for the railroad and tips sub-sectors are projected to remain constant 

at 0.0 and 1.0, respectively. The projected RWSC for the private base sub-sector is dependent 

on the ratio of EO wage workers in the private base sub-sector who are covered under the 

OASDI program to all EO wage workers in the private base sub-sector. We assume that all of 

EO will be wage workers employed in the private residual base sub-sector of the economy 

and that the proportion of EO that is covered under the OASDI program will decrease. 

Therefore, we assume that the RWSC for the private residual base sector will also decrease.

Equation 2.3.12 - Ratio of Covered Self-Employed Earnings (RCSE)

The RCSE is projected to remain constant at its latest actual historical level.

Equation 2.3.17 - Average Wage Index (AWI)

The growth in the AWI is projected to be equal to the growth in the average wage for 

employees with any wages (covered and noncovered) posted to the MEF (AWS_MEF). Total 

wages posted to the MEF (WS_MEF) is equal to WSC less wages posted to the ESF plus any 

non-OASDI covered wages posted to the MEF. Similarly, the total number of employees 

with any wages posted to the MEF (WSW_MEF) is equal to WSW less employees posted 

only to the ESF plus any employees with no OASDI covered wages posted to the MEF.

Equation 2.3.18 - OASDI Taxable Maximum (TAXMAX)

By law, the growth in the AWI is used to increase the TAXMAX.
73

2.4. Effective TAXABLE PAYROLL (TAXPAY)

2.4.a. Overview

TAXPAY estimates historical annual taxable earnings data including total employee OASDI 

taxable wages (WTEE), total employer taxable wages (WTER), and taxable self-employment

income (SET). By law, each employee is required to pay the OASDI tax on wages from all 

covered jobs up to the TAXMAX, while each employer is required to pay the OASDI tax on the 

wages of each worker up to the TAXMAX. If an employee works more than one covered wage 

job and the sum of all covered wages exceeds the TAXMAX, the employee but not the employer 

is due a refund. Hence, WTER is greater than WTEE. The difference (i.e., WTER less WTEE) is 

defined as multi-employer refund wages (MER).

TAXPAY also estimates the historical annual OASDI effective taxable payroll (ETP). ETP is the 

amount of earnings in a year which, when multiplied by the combined employee-employer tax 

rate, yields the total amount of taxes due from wages and self-employment income in the year. 

ETP is used in estimating OASDI income and in determining income and cost rates and the 

actuarial balance. ETP is defined as WTER plus SET less one-half of MER.

TAXPAY projects annual values for ETP after first estimating its components. The components 

in turn are estimated by a collection of ratios. The employee taxable ratio (RWTEE) is defined as 

the ratio of WTEE to WSC. The multi-employer refund wage ratio (RMER) is defined as the 

ratio of MER to WSC. The self-employment income taxable ratio (RSET) is defined as the ratio 

of SET to CSE_TOT. Equations 2.4.1 through 2.4.8 outline the projection methodology.

RWTEE = RWTEE(·) (2.4.1)

WTEE = RWTEE * WSC (2.4.2)

RMER = RMER(·) (2.4.3)

MER = RMER * WSC (2.4.4)

WTER = WTEE + MER (2.4.5)

RSET = RSET(·) (2.4.6)

SET = RSET * CSE_TOT (2.4.7)

ETP = WTER + SET - 0.5 * MER (2.4.8)
74

In order to conform to the Trustees’ assumption for an ETP of 0.825 in the final short range year 

(see below), TAXPAY solves equations 2.4.1 through 2.4.8 iteratively, altering the trend 

adjustment on RWTEE until the assumed ratio is reached.

Over the short-range projection horizon (i.e., first 10 years), TAXPAY also projects annual 

OASDI wage tax liabilities (WTL) and self-employment tax liabilities (SEL). In Equation 2.4.9, 

WTL is the product of the effective taxable wages, defined as WTER less one-half of MER, and 

the combined OASDI employee-employer tax rate (TRW). In Equation 2.4.10, SEL is the 

product of SET and the OASDI self-employed tax rate (TRSE).

WTL = WTER * TRW (2.4.9)

SEL = SET * TRSE (2.4.10)

Also over the short-range horizon, TAXPAY decomposes WTL into quarterly wage tax 

liabilities (WTLQ), then to quarterly wage tax collections (WTLQC). TAXPAY also 

decomposes SEL into quarterly self-employed net income tax collections (SELQC).

WTLQ = WTLQ(·) (2.4.11)

WTLQC = WTLQC(·) (2.4.12)

SELQC = SELQC(·) (2.4.13)

Finally, over the first two projected quarters, TAXPAY estimates of WTLQC and SELQC are 

replaced with ones from the most recent OMB FY Budget.

2.4.b. Input Data

Trustees Assumptions

The Board of Trustees of the OASDI Trust Funds assumes that the ratio of effective OASDI 

taxable payroll to covered earnings for the final calendar year of the short range period (2025) is 

0.825 and remains approximately constant in subsequent years.

Data used to obtain values input directly to model

• Data obtained from ORES by email for the amounts of single and multi-employer 

refunds for the latest 5 years. Each year, data are updated.

• Data obtained from ORES are tabulations of quarterly Form 941 data. Data currently 

used are the OASDI, HI, and income taxable wages by sector for the most recent five 

years. The data represent changes in reported wages since the prior quarterly report. 

The most recent data are appended to previously reported data. Annual totals are 
75

computed and used to derive estimates of OASDI taxable wages by sector for the 

latest historical years.

• Data obtained from the most recently available 1.0% CWHS active file, maintained 

on Social Security’s mainframe and made available by ORES. The years of data are 

1951 to the third year prior to the current Trustees Report year. The data are used for 

comparison of OASDI taxable earnings from other sources.

• Data obtained from quarterly IRS Form 941 files, provided by OS. Data currently 

used are the OASDI and HI taxable wages for 1978 to the most recent year available. 

The data represent changes in reported wages since the prior quarterly report. The 

most recent data are appended to previously reported data. Annual totals are 

computed and used to derive estimates of OASDI taxable wages for the most recent 

historical years.

• Data for the most recent ten years from the quarterly EPOXY Report, received in 

hard-copy and, more recently, electronic formats obtained from OS. The data 

currently used are the total number of workers with OASDI taxable earnings, total 

number of workers with OASDI self-employed taxable earnings, distribution of 

number of HI workers by wage intervals, distribution of number of OASDI workers 

by wage intervals, number of persons with OASDI taxable wages, number of persons 

with HI taxable wages, number of persons with OASDI taxable self-employment,

number of persons with HI taxable self-employment, number of workers with singleemployer excess wages, and number of workers with multi-employer excess wages.

Starting with the EPOXY reports produced during 2015, the data are now tabulated 

for years 1978 through the most recent year of data available (which was 2014 for the 

2015 reports).

• Data obtained from the Quarterly Trust Fund Letter (QTFL), received from OFPO. 

Data currently used are OASDI and HI taxable wages accumulated from all Forms 

941 and W-2 to date, and changes in self-employment earnings and self-reported tips

since the prior QTFL. These data are for years 1978 to the most recent year available.

Long-Range OASDI Projection Data

Historical and projected data from Sections 2.1, 2.2, and 2.3 are used as input. Data for the 

following variables have final year of 2099. Each variable is shown with the starting year of 

the data.

ADDSETROD Total add factor to OASDI taxable to covered selfemployment income ratio, 2015

ADDWSTREEOD Total add factor to OASDI taxable to covered wage ratio, 

2015

ADDWSTREEODTREND Component of total add factor to OASDI taxable to 

covered wage ratio due to trend in ratio, 2015

AIW Average wage for indexing ($), 1971
76

AWSCFM Average covered wage for farm workers ($), 1971

AWSCML Average covered wage for military ($), 1971

DMWCHI Deemed military wage credits for HI ($ millions), 1983

DMWCOD Deemed military wage credits for OASDI ($ millions), 

1983

ECFCHO Number of HI-only covered Federal Civilian workers 

(millions), 1983

ECFCOD Number of OASDI covered Federal Civilian workers 

(millions), 1983

ECHITOT Number of HI covered workers (millions), 1987

ECSEHI Number of HI covered self-employed workers (millions), 

1988

ECSENOMAX Number of covered self-employed workers if no taxable 

maximum (millions), 1988

ECSEO Number of OASDI covered self-employed only workers 

(millions), 1981

ECSEOD Number of OASDI covered self-employed workers 

(millions), 1981

ECSLNOIS Number of non-OASDI covered State and Local workers 

including students (millions), 1983

ECSLP91 Number of State and Local workers covered under 

OASDI under pre-1991 law (millions), 1983

ECSLNRP Number of OASDI covered State and Local workers with 

no retirement plan (millions), 1983

ECSLOD Number of OASDI covered State and Local workers 

(millions), 1983

ECWSHI Number of HI covered wage workers (millions), 1981

ECWSOD Number of OASDI covered wage workers (millions), 1981

ECWSOD_MEF Number of OASDI covered wage workers on the Master 

Earnings File (MEF) in millions, 1981

ECWSOD(sex, age)_MEF Number of OASDI covered wage workers on the Master 

Earnings File (MEF) in millions by sex (M/F) and age 

group (Under 16, 16-19, 20-24, 25-29, ..., 60-64, 65-69, 70 

and over (millions), 1981

ESLCG Number of State and Local workers not covered under HI 

(millions), 1983

ESLSTUD Number of noncovered students at public schools 

employed by their school (millions), 1983

GAPLAG Ratio of real to potential GDP (units), 1971

RTP Ratio of real to potential GDP (units), 1971

RU Civilian unemployment rate (percent), 1971

SEECCMB Self-employed earnings of all SE workers who also earned 

wages in same year ($ millions), 1991

SEECHI HI covered self-employed earnings ($ millions), 1991

SEECNOMAX Covered self-employed earnings if no taxable maximum 

($ millions), 1991
77

SEECOD OASDI covered self-employed earnings ($ millions), 1991

SEECOD_OLD OASDI covered self-employed earnings excluding selfemployed earnings of workers with covered wages greater 

than or equal to the OASDI taxable maximum ($ 

millions), 1971

SEETODCMB OASDI taxable self-employment earnings of combination 

workers ($ billions), 1995

SEETODEXOG Total OASDI taxable self-employment earnings ($ 

millions), 1995

SEETODSEO OASDI taxable self-employment earnings of selfemployed only workers ($ billions), 1995

TAXMAXHI HI taxable maximum ($) – 0 indicates no maximum, 1971

TAXMAXOD OASDI taxable maximum ($), 1971

TCFCD Proportion of annual Federal Civilian wages earned in 

each quarter (units), 1971

TCMD Proportion of annual military wages earned in each 

quarter (units), 1971

TCPD Proportion of annual private sector wages earned in each 

quarter (units), 1971

TCSLD Proportion of annual State and Local wages earned in 

each quarter (units), 1971

TETODCMB Total OASDI taxable earnings of combination workers ($ 

millions), 1995

WSCCMB Wages earned in same year by all SE workers with both 

types of earnings ($ millions), 1991

WSCFCHO HI Covered wages of Federal Civilian HI-only workers ($ 

millions), 1983

WSCFCOD OASDI Covered wages of Federal Civilian workers ($ 

millions), 1971

WSCFM Covered wages of farm workers ($ millions), 1971

WSCHI HI covered wages ($ millions), 1971

WSCML Covered wages of members of the Armed Forces ($ 

millions), 1971

WSCOD OASDI covered wages ($ millions), 1971

WSCOD_SF OASDI covered wages on the Suspense File ($ millions), 

1971

WSCPHH Covered wages of private household workers ($ millions), 

1971

WSCPNF Covered wages of private nonfarm workers ($ millions), 

1971

WSCSLHI HI covered State and Local wages ($ millions), 1971

WSCSLNRP Covered wages of State and Local workers with no 

retirement plan ($ millions), 1991

WSCSLOD OASDI covered State and Local wages ($ millions), 1971

WSCSLP91 Wages of State and Local workers covered under OASDI 

under pre-1991 law ($ millions), 1971
78

WSD Total NIPA wages ($ millions), 1971

WSP Total NIPA private sector wages ($ millions), 1971

WSS Total NIPA compensation ($ millions), 1971

WSSLCG Wages of State and Local workers not covered under HI 

($ millions), 1983

WSSLNOIS Wages of non-OASDI covered State and Local workers 

including students ($ millions), 1983

WSSLSTUD Wages of noncovered students at public schools employed 

by their school ($ millions), 1983

WSMEREFODEXOG OASDI multi-employer refund wages ($ millions), 2014

WSTEEODEXOG Total OASDI taxable wages ($ millions), 2015

WSTRRTPHI Wages of railroad workers taxable under HI ($ millions), 

1971

WSTTIPSSR Taxable tips reported by tip earner instead of employer ($ 

millions), 1978

WTWPO Proportion of annual Postal Service wages earned in each 

quarter (units), 1971

Other direct input data

• FICA, SECA, and Federal Employer tax transfers by month from the Department of 

the Treasury for years 1984 to 2015.

• FICA, SECA, and Federal Employer tax transfers by month from the Department of 

the Treasury for January 2016.

• FICA and SECA tax transfers by month split by liability period from the Department 

of the Treasury for 1984 to 2015.

• Historical annual HI taxable self-employment earnings for 1983 to 1993. (Values 

from 1994 on are equal to HI covered earnings and are obtained from subprocess 

COV.).

• Historical annual OASDI taxable self-employment earnings for 1971 to 2014.

• Historical annual HI multi-employer refund wages for 1983 to 1993 (Values for 1994 

on are zero because of the elimination of the HI taxable maximum.)

• Historical annual OASDI multi-employer refund wages for 1971 to 2014.

• Historical annual HI taxable wages for 1983 to 1993. (Values from 1994 on are equal 

to HI covered wages and are obtained from subprocess COV.).

• Historical annual OASDI taxable wages for 1971 to 2014.

• Historical annual HI-only taxable Federal Civilian wages for 1987 to 1993. (Values 
79

from 1994 on are equal to HI-only covered wages and are obtained from subprocess 

COV.).

• Historical annual OASDI taxable Federal Civilian wages for 1971 to 2014.

• Historical annual HI taxable Federal Civilian wages for 1987 to 1993. (Values from 

1994 on are equal to HI covered wages and are obtained from subprocess COV.).

• Historical annual OASDI taxable farm sector wages for 1971 to 2014.

• Historical annual HI taxable farm sector wages for 1991 to 1993. (Values from 1994 

on are equal to HI covered wages and are obtained from subprocess COV.).

• Historical annual OASDI taxable military sector wages for 1971 to 2014.

• Historical annual HI taxable military sector wages for 1991 to 1993. (Values from 

1994 on are equal to HI covered wages and are obtained from subprocess COV.).

• Historical annual OASDI taxable State and Local government sector wages for 1971 

to 2014.

• Historical annual HI taxable State and Local government sector wages for 1987 to 

1993. (Values from 1994 on are equal to HI covered wages and are obtained from 

subprocess COV.).

• Historical annual OASDI taxable tips for employees as reported by employers for 

1971 to 2014.

• Historical and projected annual OASDI taxable tips for employers as reported by 

employers for 1980 to 1987. (No tips were taxable for employers prior to 1980. 

Employer taxable tips equal employee in 1988 and after.)

• Quarterly OASDI and HI taxable wages for calendar year 2015. (These values do not 

add up to the annual values as described above. These quarterly distributions are used 

to split the annual 2015 values.)

• Historical FICA and SECA appropriation adjustments for OASI, DI, and HI by month 

for 1968 to 2014.

• Estimated FICA and SECA appropriation adjustments for OASI, DI, and HI for 

March 2016

• Historical FICA revenues for OASI, DI, and HI by quarter for 1984 to 2015.
80

• Historical SECA revenues for OASI, DI, and HI by quarter for 1984 to 2015.

• Historical Federal Employer revenues for OASI, DI, and HI by quarter for 1984 to 

2015.

• Historical Deposits by States for OASI, DI, and HI by quarter for 1984 to 2015.

(This is an obsolete type of revenue which has had no valid non-zero amount since 

2002.)

• Historical single-employer refunds of excess taxes for OASI, DI, and HI by quarter 

for 1984 to 2014.

• Historical FICA credits for OASI and DI by quarter for 1984Q1 to 2015.

• Historical SECA credits for OASI, DI, and HI by quarter for 1984Q1 to 2015.

• Historical multi-employer refunds of excess taxes for OASI, DI, and HI by month for 

1968 to 2015.

• Miscellaneous historical covered employment and earnings data:

o HI Covered self-employed workers for 1986 to 1993.

o Number of OASDI covered wage workers by age group and gender for 1996.

o HI covered self-employment earnings for 1971 to 1993.

o Covered self-employment earnings if there were no taxable maximum for 

1971 to 1993.

o OASDI covered self-employment earnings for 1971 to 1993.

• Miscellaneous historical and fixed projected data:

o Quarterly distribution of annual OASDI taxable farm wages for 1971 to 2024.

o Quarterly OASDI covered private nonfarm sector wages for 1971 to 1977.

o Quarterly OASDI covered State and Local government sector wages for 1971 

to 1977.

o Quarterly OASDI covered military sector wages for 1971 to 1977.

o Quarterly OASDI covered Federal Civilian sector wages for 1971 to 1977.

o Quarterly OASDI taxable private nonfarm sector wages for 1971 to 1977.
81

o Quarterly OASDI taxable State and Local government sector wages for 1971 

to 1977.

o Quarterly OASDI taxable military sector wages for 1971 to 1977.

o Quarterly OASDI taxable Federal Civilian sector wages for 1971 to 1977.

o Quarterly OASDI taxable farm sector wages for 1971 to 1977.

o OASDI employee, employer, and self-employment tax rates from 1937 to 

2100. These contribution rates are set according to the Social Security Act of 

1935 and amendments to the Act through 2015. The rates are updated when 

legislation mandates a change. The rates were unchanged from 2000 to 2015. 

The Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015 reallocated the OASI and DI employeeemployer and self-employment tax rates for years 2016 through 2018. The 

OASDI rates remain the same and the rates revert to the ones in effect for 

2000 to 2015 in 2019 and thereafter. 

o Annual OASDI employee credit tax rate for 1984.

o Annual OASDI self-employment credit tax rates for 1984 to 1989.

o Annual reductions in OASDI employee and self-employment tax rates due to 

the payroll tax holiday for 2011 and 2012.

o Annual trend variable for taxable to covered wage ratio calculation for 1971 to 

2100 (no longer used)

o Annual trend variable for taxable to covered self-employment earnings ratio 

calculation for 1971 to 2100 (no longer used)

• Average OASDI covered wages by age groups and gender for 1996.

• Ratio of OASDI taxable to covered wages by age groups and gender for 1996.

• Corrections to prior FICA appropriation adjustments made in March 2000.

• Projected single-employer refund wages by calendar year for 2015 through 2026.

2.4.c. Development of Output

Equation 2.4.1 - Employee Taxable Ratio (RWTEE)

Over the short-range projection horizon, the projected value for RWTEE is the sum of the 

model’s “raw” estimate and an addfactor consisting of four components. The raw estimate 
82

for RWTEE is dependent on the distribution of workers by wage interval, the RELMAX, 

RTP, the age-gender distribution of wage workers, a time trend adjustment, and a base-year 

error adjustment. The projected distribution of workers by wage interval is an average (or 

amalgam) distribution over the 1993 through 2013 period. Holding other factors constant, a 

distribution with relatively more workers with wages over the TAXMAX leads to a lower 

RWTEE. The RELMAX is defined as the ratio of the TAXMAX to the ACW. A higher 

RELMAX leads to a higher RWTEE.

An increase in the RTP leads to a lower RWTEE. The change in the projected RWTEE due 

to the change in the age-gender distribution of wage workers is calculated by allowing 

employment by age and gender to change while holding taxable ratios (and average covered 

wages) by age and gender constant to levels in 1996. The time trend adjustment reduces the 

level of RWTEE by about 0.6 percentage point over the short-range projection horizon. The 

base-year error adjustment starts with the value obtained by subtracting the estimated value 

of RWTEE for the latest historical (or base) year from the actual value and phases this 

amount out linearly over the ten years of the short-range projection period.

RWTEE is assumed to remain constant over the long-range projection horizon.

RWTEEs are also projected for various sub-aggregates including Federal Civilian employees 

under FERS and CSRS, Federal Civilian employees under CSRS only, S&L employees 

covered under OASDI, S&L employees covered under HI only, U.S. armed forces, and 

agriculture. The RWTEE for each sub-aggregate is dependent only on its sub-aggregate 

RELMAX, that is, the ratio of the TAXMAX to the sub-aggregate’s average covered wage.

Equation 2.4.2 - Employee Taxable Wages (WTEE)

WTEE is computed by multiplying the ratio of taxable employee wages to covered wages by 

the level of covered wages.

Equation 2.4.3 - Multi-Employer Refund Wage Ratio (RMER)

The RMER is functionally related to the RWTEE. As RWTEE approaches one, then RMER 

approaches zero. In between the limit values, RMER is positive. Given the present position 

of RWTEE and RMER on the function, a projected decline in RWTEE leads to an increase in 

RMER.

The projected RMER is also dependent on RU. An increase in RU leads to a decrease in 

RMER.

RMER is assumed to remain constant over the long-range projection horizon.

Equation 2.4.4 - Multi-Employer Refund Wages (MER)

MER is computed by multiplying the ratio of multi-employer refund wages to covered wages 
83

by the level of covered wages.

Equation 2.4.5 - Employer Taxable Wages (WTER)

WTER is computed by adding employer taxable wages to multi-employer refund wages.

Equation 2.4.6 - Self-Employed Net Income Taxable Ratio (RSET)

The RSET is disaggregated by type of self-employed worker, SEO and CMB_TOT.

SEO - The RSET is dependent on the distribution of self-employed workers by income 

interval and a RELMAX. The projected distribution of self-employed workers by income 

interval is set to the 2011 distribution. The RELMAX is defined here as the ratio of the 

TAXMAX to the average income for SEO. A higher RELMAX leads to a higher RSET. 

CMB_TOT - Taxable self-employed net income for CMB_TOT is projected in two steps. 

First, a taxable earnings (wages and self-employment income) ratio for CMB_TOT is 

projected based on the 2011 distribution and a RELMAX defined as the ratio of the 

TAXMAX to the average covered earnings. The projected level of taxable earnings for 

CMB_TOT is the product of the estimated taxable earnings ratio for CMB_TOT and their 

covered earnings. Second, a taxable wage ratio for CMB_TOT is projected based on a 

RELMAX defined as the ratio of the TAXMAX to the average covered wage for 

CMB_TOT. The projected level of taxable wages for CMB_TOT is the product of the 

estimated taxable wage ratio for CMB_TOT and their covered wages.

Taxable self-employed net income for CMB_TOT is obtained by subtracting taxable wages 

from taxable earnings for CMB_TOT.

A “combined” RSET is calculated as the ratio of the sum of taxable self-employment income 

for SEO and CMB_TOT to CSE_TOT. As with the RWTEE, the combined RSET is adjusted 

over the short-range period due to other factors (i.e., RTP, the age-gender distribution of 

workers, and a trend). The effect of the other factors are taken from RWTEE and “scaled.” 

That is, RSET is adjusted by a percent effect (as opposed to percentage point) that is equal to 

the percent change in RWTEE due to changes in these other factors.

It is important to note that while the RWTEE is held constant after the short-range period, the 

RSETs for self-employed workers are not. After the short-range period, the projected RSETs 

for SEO and CMB_TOT continue to be dependent on their respective RELMAXs. Since by 

law the TAXMAX grows at the rate of the AWI and since ACSE is assumed to grow faster 

than the ACW (since only ACW declines with the growth in fringe benefits), the RELMAXs 

for self-employed workers decline over the long-range period while the RELMAX for wage 

workers is approximately constant. Hence, the RSETs for SEO and CMB_TOT are projected 

to decline over the long-range period while the RWTEE is held constant.

Equation 2.4.7 - Taxable Self-Employment Income (SET)
84

SET is computed by multiplying the self-employment income taxable ratio by the level of 

covered self-employment income.

Equation 2.4.8 – Effective Taxable Payroll (ETP)

ETP is computed by adding employer taxable wages and taxable self-employment income 

and subtracting from that total one-half of multi-employer refund wages. (Only employees 

can obtain refunds of excess taxes withheld in multi-employer refund wage cases.)

As noted above, in order to meet the Trustees’ assumption that the ratio of ETP to total 

covered earnings is 0.825 in the last year of the short-range period, equations 2.4.1 through 

2.4.8 are solved repeatedly with changes to the time-trend adjustment in equation 2.4.1 until 

the ratio is obtained.

Equation 2.4.11 - Quarterly Wage Tax Liabilities (WTLQ)

Total WTLQ is summed from sector components that include Federal Civilian, Federal 

Military, S&L, Private Household, Farm, Self-reported Tips, and residual Private Nonfarm. 

Sector WTLQs are determined by computing ratios of quarterly to annual liabilities for each 

quarter. These are calculated for the Private Nonfarm, S&L, Federal Civilian and Military 

sectors. Each is dependent on the quarterly distribution of WSD and the RWTEE for the 

relevant sector, and on a payday adjustment that takes into account the actual number of 

paydays that fall into a particular calendar quarter. WTLQ ratios for the other sectors are 

assumed to be constants over the projection horizon.

Equation 2.4.12 - Quarterly Wage Tax Collections (WTLQC)

Employers incur tax liabilities when they pay wages to their employees. These liabilities are 

required to be deposited with the U.S. Treasury by employers based on the amount of total 

payroll tax liability (income taxes plus Social Security and Medicare taxes withheld) 

accumulated. Some very large employers must deposit their tax liabilities the next banking 

day after paying their employees. Other levels of accumulated tax liabilities require 

depositing within three days, by the middle of the following month, or by the end of the 

month following the quarter. If employers follow these deposit requirements, the result is that 

all tax liability for a particular quarter is deposited by the last day of the month following the 

end of the quarter. Thus, the WTLQC for any particular quarter are the sum of the tax 

liabilities deposited for wages paid in the same quarter and the liabilities deposited for wages 

paid in the prior quarter.

WTLQC are summed from sector components that include the Federal Civilian, Federal 

Military, Farm, S&L, and residual Private Nonfarm (including Private Household and SelfReported Tips). For the Federal Civilian and Military sectors, the WTLQC are set equal to 

their respective WTLQ since tax liabilities for the two sectors are considered collected 

immediately. The WTLQC for Farm is also set equal to its WTLQ, due in part to the fact that 

farms report tax liabilities annually. For the S&L and Private Nonfarm sectors, the WTLQC 

amount is computed by adding the product of WTLQ and the proportion of WTLQ that 
85

should be deposited in the same quarter in which the wages were paid to the WTLQ from the 

previous quarter which was not deposited in that quarter. Each quarter’s proportion is based 

on the deposit requirements and estimates of accumulated tax liabilities, which in turn are 

based on firm size (or total wages paid). Separate proportions are estimated for the S&L and 

the Private Nonfarm sector because of the large difference in wage distributions between 

them.

Equation 2.4.13 - Quarterly Self-Employed Net Income Tax Collections (SELQC)

For wage workers, annual liabilities (WTL) are distributed to quarterly liabilities (WTLQ), 

which in turn are distributed to quarterly collections (WTLQC). However, for self-employed 

workers, annual liabilities (SEL) are distributed directly to SELQC, since the SSA only 

receives self-employed liability amounts on an annual basis (from tabulations of Form 1040 

Schedule SE provided by IRS).

SEL for a particular calendar year are distributed as collections to the four quarters of that 

year and to the first three quarters of the next year. This distribution uses quarterly 

proportions that are based on an historical pattern of the amount of SEL collected in each 

month, as estimated by the OTA. The OTA estimates reflect IRS regulations that require selfemployed workers to deposit estimated tax liabilities four times a year (January, April, June, 

and September). The program computes the collection distribution ratios based on the OTA 

estimates, which are input to the program. The ratios for projected years are determined by 

averaging the ratios for all years 1997 through the most recent year for which the OTA 

estimates are complete.
86

Appendix 2-1

Equations

2.1 U.S. Employment (USEMP)

UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, PRELIMINARY

MALES

RM1617_P = RM1617_P.1 + (-36.2076 * DIFF(RTP) - 14.2816 * DIFF(RTP.1) - 26.6756 * DIFF(RTP.2) - 16.9202 * DIFF(RTP.3)) *

50.00/44.72

RM1617

Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 132 periods from 1976Q1 to 2008Q4

Date: 23 OCT 2009

diff(rm1617)

 = - 36.2076 * diff(rtp) - 14.2816 * diff(rtp)[-1]

 (2.29349) (0.87160)

 - 26.6756 * diff(rtp)[-2] - 16.9202 * diff(rtp)[-3]

 (1.63426) (1.06303)

 + 1.64214 * minw - 0.90365 * minw[-1] + 0.06020 * minw[-2]

 (1.76311) (0.70381) (0.04365)

 - 0.77627 * minw[-3] - 0.12616

 (0.72653) (0.26611)

Sum Sq 198.967 Std Err 1.2719 LHS Mean 0.0553

R Sq 0.1483 R Bar Sq 0.0929 F 8,123 2.6769

D.W.( 1) 2.5142 D.W.( 4) 2.3291

RM1819_P = RM1819_P.1 + (-48.4227 * DIFF(RTP) - 25.8766 * DIFF(RTP.1) - 21.7466 * DIFF(RTP.2) + 1.1551 * DIFF(RTP.3)) *

50.00/44.72

RM1819

Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 132 periods from 1976Q1 to 2008Q4

Date: 23 OCT 2009

diff(rm1819)

 = - 48.4227 * diff(rtp) - 25.8766 * diff(rtp)[-1]

 (3.45103) (1.77685)

 - 21.7466 * diff(rtp)[-2] + 1.15512 * diff(rtp)[-3]

 (1.49900) (0.08165)

 + 0.62723 * minw - 0.48738 * minw[-1] + 0.67739 * minw[-2]

 (0.75770) (0.42710) (0.55270)

 - 0.79385 * minw[-3] - 0.11294

 (0.83595) (0.26803)

Sum Sq 157.172 Std Err 1.1304 LHS Mean 0.0235

R Sq 0.1890 R Bar Sq 0.1362 F 8,123 3.5828

D.W.( 1) 2.6908 D.W.( 4) 2.4565

RM2024_P = RM2024_P.1 + (-51.6518 * DIFF(RTP) - 16.6465 * DIFF(RTP.1) - 13.1350 * DIFF(RTP.2) - 10.9309 * DIFF(RTP.3)) *

50.00/44.72

RM2024

Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 132 periods from 1976Q1 to 2008Q4

Date: 23 OCT 2009
87

diff(rm2024)

 = - 51.6518 * diff(rtp) - 16.6465 * diff(rtp)[-1]

 (7.75482) (2.35721)

 - 13.1350 * diff(rtp)[-2] - 10.9309 * diff(rtp)[-3] + 0.00093

 (1.86731) (1.59404) (0.01922)

Sum Sq 38.7297 Std Err 0.5522 LHS Mean -0.0048

R Sq 0.4356 R Bar Sq 0.4178 F 4,127 24.5002

D.W.( 1) 2.4679 D.W.( 4) 2.2856

RM2529_P = RM2529_P.1 + (-37.9533 * DIFF(RTP) - 17.3941 * DIFF(RTP.1) - 14.9170 * DIFF(RTP.2) - 7.0513 * DIFF(RTP.3)) *

50.00/44.72

RM2529

Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 129 periods from 1976Q4 to 2008Q4

Date: 23 OCT 2009

diff(rm2529)

 = - 37.9533 * diff(rtp) - 17.3941 * diff(rtp)[-1]

 (7.06307) (3.05222)

 - 14.9170 * diff(rtp)[-2] - 7.05126 * diff(rtp)[-3] + 0.00609

 (2.61734) (1.28703) (0.15745)

Sum Sq 23.9433 Std Err 0.4394 LHS Mean 0.0095

R Sq 0.4417 R Bar Sq 0.4237 F 4,124 24.5278

D.W.( 1) 2.1341 D.W.( 4) 2.4166

RM3034_P = RM3034_P.1 + (-23.6417 * DIFF(RTP) - 14.1284 * DIFF(RTP.1) - 7.5008 * DIFF(RTP.2) - 9.7232 * DIFF(RTP.3)) * 50.00/44.72

RM3034

Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 129 periods from 1976Q4 to 2008Q4

Date: 23 OCT 2009

diff(rm3034)

 = - 23.6417 * diff(rtp) - 14.1286 * diff(rtp)[-1]

 (6.21241) (3.50067)

 - 7.50079 * diff(rtp)[-2] - 9.7232 * diff(rtp)[-3] + 0.01058

 (1.85832) (2.50593) (0.38580)

Sum Sq 12.0091 Std Err 0.3112 LHS Mean 0.0119

R Sq 0.4221 R Bar Sq 0.4034 F 4,124 22.6397

D.W.( 1) 2.1876 D.W.( 4) 1.8816

RM3539_P = RM3539_P.1 + (-27.6828 * DIFF(RTP) - 5.4850 * DIFF(RTP.1) - 10.8974 * DIFF(RTP.2) - 9.8932 * DIFF(RTP.3)) * 50.00/44.72

RM3539

Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 129 periods from 1976Q4 to 2008Q4

Date: 23 OCT 2009

diff(rm3539)

 = - 27.6828 * diff(rtp) - 5.48498 * diff(rtp)[-1]

 (6.57840) (1.22901)

 - 10.8974 * diff(rtp)[-2] - 9.8932 * diff(rtp)[-3] + 0.01127

 (2.44154) (2.30580) (0.37184)

Sum Sq 14.6843 Std Err 0.3441 LHS Mean 0.0130

R Sq 0.3795 R Bar Sq 0.3595 F 4,124 18.9589

D.W.( 1) 2.3381 D.W.( 4) 1.9092

RM4044_P = RM4044_P.1 + (-14.6558 * DIFF(RTP) - 14.9735 * DIFF(RTP.1) - 8.2594 * DIFF(RTP.2) - 5.5023 * DIFF(RTP.3)) * 50.00/44.72

RM4044

Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 129 periods from 1976Q4 to 2008Q4
88

Date: 23 OCT 2009

diff(rm4044)

 = - 14.6558 * diff(rtp) - 14.9735 * diff(rtp)[-1]

 (3.48851) (3.36064)

 - 8.25944 * diff(rtp)[-2] - 5.50233 * diff(rtp)[-3] + 0.00570

 (1.85359) (1.28455) (0.18829)

Sum Sq 14.6357 Std Err 0.3436 LHS Mean 0.0064

R Sq 0.2692 R Bar Sq 0.2456 F 4,124 11.4206

D.W.( 1) 2.6138 D.W.( 4) 2.0655

RM4549_P = RM4549_P.1 + (-20.7806 * DIFF(RTP) - 11.5121 * DIFF(RTP.1) - 9.9409 * DIFF(RTP.2) + 1.5480 * DIFF(RTP.3)) * 

50.00/44.72

RM4549

Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 129 periods from 1976Q4 to 2008Q4

Date: 23 OCT 2009

diff(rm4549)

 = - 20.7806 * diff(rtp) - 11.5121 * diff(rtp)[-1]

 (5.31669) (2.77721)

 - 9.9409 * diff(rtp)[-2] + 1.54797 * diff(rtp)[-3] + 0.00874

 (2.39795) (0.38844) (0.31046)

Sum Sq 12.6680 Std Err 0.3196 LHS Mean 0.0114

R Sq 0.3249 R Bar Sq 0.3031 F 4,124 14.9185

D.W.( 1) 2.2355 D.W.( 4) 1.7877

RM5054_P = RM5054_P.1 + (-19.3341 * DIFF(RTP) - 9.5336 * DIFF(RTP.1) - 8.8784 * DIFF(RTP.2) - 7.6218 * DIFF(RTP.3)) * 50.00/44.72

RM5054

Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 129 periods from 1976Q4 to 2008Q4

Date: 23 OCT 2009

diff(rm5054)

 = - 19.3341 * diff(rtp) - 9.5336 * diff(rtp)[-1]

 (4.72314) (2.19601)

 - 8.87840 * diff(rtp)[-2] - 7.62180 * diff(rtp)[-3] + 0.01083

 (2.04491) (1.82617) (0.36742)

Sum Sq 13.8950 Std Err 0.3347 LHS Mean 0.0118

R Sq 0.2957 R Bar Sq 0.2730 F 4,124 13.0163

D.W.( 1) 2.1290 D.W.( 4) 1.7836

RM5559_P = RM5559_P.1 + (-25.9031 * DIFF(RTP) - 11.4442 * DIFF(RTP.1) - 4.5421 * DIFF(RTP.2) + 0.55815 * DIFF(RTP.3)) * 

50.00/44.72

RM5559

Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 129 periods from 1976Q4 to 2008Q4

Date: 23 OCT 2009

diff(rm5559)

 = - 25.9031 * diff(rtp) - 11.4442 * diff(rtp)[-1]

 (5.21572) (2.17280)

 - 4.54211 * diff(rtp)[-2] + 0.55815 * diff(rtp)[-3] + 0.00326

 (0.86229) (0.11023) (0.09111)

Sum Sq 20.4526 Std Err 0.4061 LHS Mean 0.0068

R Sq 0.2605 R Bar Sq 0.2366 F 4,124 10.9177

D.W.( 1) 2.2469 D.W.( 4) 1.7904

RM6064_P = RM6064_P.1 + (1.3133 * DIFF(RTP) - 12.9625 * DIFF(RTP.1) - 2.4816 * DIFF(RTP.2) - 14.4797 * DIFF(RTP.3)) * 50.00/44.72
89

RM6064

Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 129 periods from 1976Q4 to 2008Q4

Date: 23 OCT 2009

diff(rm6064)

 = 1.31332 * diff(rtp) - 12.9625 * diff(rtp)[-1]

 (0.25208) (2.34596)

 - 2.48164 * diff(rtp)[-2] - 14.4797 * diff(rtp)[-3] + 0.00491

 (0.44909) (2.72583) (0.13091)

Sum Sq 22.5085 Std Err 0.4261 LHS Mean 0.0021

R Sq 0.1187 R Bar Sq 0.0903 F 4,124 4.1768

D.W.( 1) 2.3485 D.W.( 4) 1.9007

RM6569_P = RM6569_P.1 + (-19.5151 * DIFF(RTP) + 4.9785 * DIFF(RTP.1) -13.3449 * DIFF(RTP.2) + 2.4706 * DIFF(RTP.3)) * 

50.00/44.72

RM6569

Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 129 periods from 1976Q4 to 2008Q4

Date: 23 OCT 2009

diff(rm6569)

 = - 19.5151 * diff(rtp) + 4.97852 * diff(rtp)[-1]

 (2.18595) (0.52582)

 - 13.3449 * diff(rtp)[-2] + 2.47056 * diff(rtp)[-3] - 0.01208

 (1.40935) (0.27142) (0.18783)

Sum Sq 66.0895 Std Err 0.7301 LHS Mean -0.0096

R Sq 0.0551 R Bar Sq 0.0246 F 4,124 1.8065

D.W.( 1) 2.6235 D.W.( 4) 1.5080

RM7074_P = RM7074_P.1 + (4.1938 * DIFF(RTP) - 5.9012 * DIFF(RTP.1) - 27.0406 * DIFF(RTP.2) + 7.0400 * DIFF(RTP.3)) * 50.00/44.72

RM7074

Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 111 periods from 1981Q2 to 2008Q4

Date: 23 OCT 2009

diff(rm7074)

 = 4.19384 * diff(rtp) - 5.90117 * diff(rtp)[-1]

 (0.25776) (0.34403)

 - 27.0406 * diff(rtp)[-2] + 7.03995 * diff(rtp)[-3] + 0.02434

 (1.59539) (0.43075) (0.24587)

Sum Sq 114.781 Std Err 1.0406 LHS Mean 0.0185

R Sq 0.0282 R Bar Sq -0.0085 F 4,106 0.7684

D.W.( 1) 2.8303 D.W.( 4) 1.7482

RM75O_P = RM75O_P.1 + (-12.1042 * DIFF(RTP) - 15.6142 * DIFF(RTP.1) + 7.06185 * DIFF(RTP.2) - 2.5738 * DIFF(RTP.3)) * 50.00/44.72

RM75O

Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 111 periods from 1981Q2 to 2008Q4

Date: 23 OCT 2009

diff(rm75o)

 = - 12.1042 * diff(rtp) - 15.6142 * diff(rtp)[-1]

 (0.80507) (0.98509)

 + 7.06185 * diff(rtp)[-2] - 2.57381 * diff(rtp)[-3] + 0.00860

 (0.45088) (0.17042) (0.09395)

Sum Sq 98.0128 Std Err 0.9616 LHS Mean 0.0133

R Sq 0.0212 R Bar Sq -0.0157 F 4,106 0.5749

D.W.( 1) 2.6726 D.W.( 4) 1.8788
90

FEMALES

RF1617_P = RF1617_P.1 + (-27.3243 * DIFF(RTP) + 13.4173 * DIFF(RTP.1) - 50.4583 * DIFF(RTP.2) - 0.3678 * DIFF(RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

RF1617

Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 132 periods from 1976Q1 to 2008Q4

Date: 23 OCT 2009

diff(rf1617)

 = - 27.3243 * diff(rtp) + 13.4173 * diff(rtp)[-1]

 (1.81297) (0.85773)

 - 50.4583 * diff(rtp)[-2] - 0.36782 * diff(rtp)[-3]

 (3.23806) (0.02421)

 + 0.33050 * minw + 0.19356 * minw[-1] + 0.18090 * minw[-2]

 (0.37169) (0.15791) (0.13742)

 - 0.68394 * minw[-3] - 0.13675

 (0.67051) (0.30213)

Sum Sq 181.339 Std Err 1.2142 LHS Mean -0.0136

R Sq 0.1227 R Bar Sq 0.0656 F 8,123 2.1501

D.W.( 1) 2.9150 D.W.( 4) 2.4862

RF1819_P = RF1819_P.1 + (-42.6358 * DIFF(RTP) - 13.6261 * DIFF(RTP.1) + 9.5650 * DIFF(RTP.2) - 31.4798 * DIFF(RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

RF1819

Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 132 periods from 1976Q1 to 2008Q4

Date: 23 OCT 2009

diff(rf1819)

 = - 42.6358 * diff(rtp) - 13.6261 * diff(rtp)[-1]

 (3.54124) (1.09043)

 + 9.5650 * diff(rtp)[-2] - 31.4798 * diff(rtp)[-3]

 (0.76838) (2.59333)

 + 0.27394 * minw - 0.95221 * minw[-1] + 1.01588 * minw[-2]

 (0.38566) (0.97247) (0.96600)

 - 0.32609 * minw[-3] - 0.05888

 (0.40019) (0.16286)

Sum Sq 115.721 Std Err 0.9700 LHS Mean -0.0217

R Sq 0.1706 R Bar Sq 0.1167 F 8,123 3.1631

D.W.( 1) 2.7048 D.W.( 4) 2.3991

RF2024_P = RF2024_P.1 + (-16.9400 * DIFF(RTP) - 13.2669 * DIFF(RTP.1) - 7.8323 * DIFF(RTP.2) - 8.6887 * DIFF(RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

RF2024

Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 132 periods from 1976Q1 to 2008Q4

Date: 23 OCT 2009

diff(rf2024)

 = - 16.9400 * diff(rtp) - 13.2669 * diff(rtp)[-1]

 (3.09139) (2.28348)

 - 7.83232 * diff(rtp)[-2] - 8.68870 * diff(rtp)[-3] - 0.02226

 (1.35342) (1.54010) (0.56228)

Sum Sq 26.2142 Std Err 0.4543 LHS Mean -0.0275

R Sq 0.1917 R Bar Sq 0.1663 F 4,127 7.5310

D.W.( 1) 2.5252 D.W.( 4) 2.1988

RF2529_P = RF2529_P.1 + (-15.5798 * DIFF(RTP) - 11.9097 * DIFF(RTP.1) - 9.8424 * DIFF(RTP.2) - 2.7555 * DIFF(RTP.3))*50.00/44.72
91

RF2529

Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 129 periods from 1976Q4 to 2008Q4

Date: 23 OCT 2009

diff(rf2529)

 = - 15.5798 * diff(rtp) - 11.9097 * diff(rtp)[-1]

 (3.32423) (2.39607)

 - 9.8424 * diff(rtp)[-2] - 2.75548 * diff(rtp)[-3] - 0.01837

 (1.97999) (0.57663) (0.54398)

Sum Sq 18.2145 Std Err 0.3833 LHS Mean -0.0172

R Sq 0.2094 R Bar Sq 0.1839 F 4,124 8.2130

D.W.( 1) 2.3764 D.W.( 4) 2.0455

RF3034_P = RF3034_P.1 + (-12.5396 * DIFF(RTP) - 1.6601 * DIFF(RTP.1) - 21.0289 * DIFF(RTP.2) + 0.0881 * DIFF(RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

RF3034

Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 129 periods from 1976Q4 to 2008Q4

Date: 23 OCT 2009

diff(rf3034)

 = - 12.5396 * diff(rtp) - 1.66005 * diff(rtp)[-1]

 (2.58233) (0.32234)

 - 21.0289 * diff(rtp)[-2] + 0.08813 * diff(rtp)[-3] - 0.01851

 (4.08297) (0.01780) (0.52910)

Sum Sq 19.5533 Std Err 0.3971 LHS Mean -0.0179

R Sq 0.1929 R Bar Sq 0.1669 F 4,124 7.4100

D.W.( 1) 2.5217 D.W.( 4) 2.0509

RF3539_P = RF3539_P.1 + (-21.9314 * DIFF(RTP) - 3.0139 * DIFF(RTP.1) - 7.8723 * DIFF(RTP.2) - 6.4785 * DIFF(RTP.3))*50.00/44.72;

RF3539

Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 129 periods from 1976Q4 to 2008Q4

Date: 23 OCT 2009

diff(rf3539)

 = - 21.9314 * diff(rtp) - 3.01391 * diff(rtp)[-1]

 (5.04991) (0.65436)

 - 7.87232 * diff(rtp)[-2] - 6.47846 * diff(rtp)[-3] - 0.00217

 (1.70904) (1.46307) (0.06942)

Sum Sq 15.6401 Std Err 0.3551 LHS Mean -0.0005

R Sq 0.2453 R Bar Sq 0.2210 F 4,124 10.0778

D.W.( 1) 2.3835 D.W.( 4) 1.7499

RF4044_P = RF4044_P.1 + (-7.7893 * DIFF(RTP) - 7.7152 * DIFF(RTP.1) - 5.7849 * DIFF(RTP.2) - 2.7298 * DIFF(RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

RF4044

Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 129 periods from 1976Q4 to 2008Q4

Date: 23 OCT 2009

diff(rf4044)

 = - 7.78933 * diff(rtp) - 7.71518 * diff(rtp)[-1]

 (1.61580) (1.50905)

 - 5.78494 * diff(rtp)[-2] - 2.72977 * diff(rtp)[-3] - 0.00986

 (1.13141) (0.55538) (0.28389)

Sum Sq 19.2707 Std Err 0.3942 LHS Mean -0.0095

R Sq 0.0780 R Bar Sq 0.0483 F 4,124 2.6232

D.W.( 1) 2.2897 D.W.( 4) 2.2106
92

RF4549_P = RF4549_P.1 + (-7.8747 * DIFF(RTP) -12.5212 * DIFF(RTP.1) + 3.56675 * DIFF(RTP.2) - 5.4812 * DIFF(RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

RF4549

Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 129 periods from 1976Q4 to 2008Q4

Date: 23 OCT 2009

diff(rf4549)

 = - 7.87468 * diff(rtp) - 12.5212 * diff(rtp)[-1]

 (1.73362) (2.59919)

 + 3.56675 * diff(rtp)[-2] - 5.48119 * diff(rtp)[-3] - 0.00968

 (0.74033) (1.18351) (0.29587)

Sum Sq 17.1092 Std Err 0.3715 LHS Mean -0.0093

R Sq 0.1055 R Bar Sq 0.0767 F 4,124 3.6575

D.W.( 1) 2.5032 D.W.( 4) 2.1339

RF5054_P = RF5054_P.1 + (-9.7818 * DIFF(RTP) - 3.1242 * DIFF(RTP.1) - 14.0327 * DIFF(RTP.2) - 4.0364 * DIFF(RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

RF5054

Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 129 periods from 1976Q4 to 2008Q4

Date: 23 OCT 2009

diff(rf5054)

 = - 9.7818 * diff(rtp) - 3.12420 * diff(rtp)[-1]

 (2.25978) (0.68055)

 - 14.0327 * diff(rtp)[-2] - 4.03638 * diff(rtp)[-3] - 0.00195

 (3.05649) (0.91457) (0.06247)

Sum Sq 15.5373 Std Err 0.3540 LHS Mean -0.0021

R Sq 0.1556 R Bar Sq 0.1283 F 4,124 5.7111

D.W.( 1) 2.3211 D.W.( 4) 1.9891

RF5559_P = RF5559_P.1 + (-2.4665 * DIFF(RTP) - 4.8191 * DIFF(RTP.1) - 11.4418 * DIFF(RTP.2) - 3.5854 * DIFF(RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

RF5559

Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 129 periods from 1976Q4 to 2008Q4

Date: 23 OCT 2009

diff(rf5559)

 = - 2.46651 * diff(rtp) - 4.81906 * diff(rtp)[-1]

 (0.39811) (0.73342)

 - 11.4418 * diff(rtp)[-2] - 3.58538 * diff(rtp)[-3] - 0.00784

 (1.74120) (0.56759) (0.17561)

Sum Sq 31.8294 Std Err 0.5066 LHS Mean -0.0088

R Sq 0.0474 R Bar Sq 0.0166 F 4,124 1.5416

D.W.( 1) 2.8260 D.W.( 4) 1.3743

RF6064_P = RF6064_P.1 + (-22.1139 * DIFF(RTP) + 4.5539 * DIFF(RTP.1) - 6.2406 * DIFF(RTP.2) - 7.0337 * DIFF(RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

RF6064

Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 129 periods from 1976Q4 to 2008Q4

Date: 23 OCT 2009

diff(rf6064)

 = - 22.1139 * diff(rtp) + 4.55389 * diff(rtp)[-1]

 (2.75662) (0.53526)

 - 6.24055 * diff(rtp)[-2] - 7.03372 * diff(rtp)[-3] - 0.00247

 (0.73345) (0.85995) (0.04266)

Sum Sq 53.3640 Std Err 0.6560 LHS Mean -0.0008
93

R Sq 0.0732 R Bar Sq 0.0433 F 4,124 2.4497

D.W.( 1) 3.0445 D.W.( 4) 1.3297

RF6569_P = RF6569_P.1 + (9.2541 * DIFF(RTP) + 7.6281 * DIFF(RTP.1) - 22.5230 * DIFF(RTP.2) + 0.2738 * DIFF(RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

RF6569

Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 129 periods from 1976Q4 to 2008Q4

Date: 23 OCT 2009

diff(rf6569)

 = 9.25410 * diff(rtp) + 7.62811 * diff(rtp)[-1]

 (0.80440) (0.62521)

 - 22.5230 * diff(rtp)[-2] + 0.27380 * diff(rtp)[-3] - 0.01724

 (1.84584) (0.02334) (0.20808)

Sum Sq 109.749 Std Err 0.9408 LHS Mean -0.0199

R Sq 0.0329 R Bar Sq 0.0017 F 4,124 1.0547

D.W.( 1) 3.0050 D.W.( 4) 1.0241

RF7074_P = RF7074_P.1 + (24.2237 * DIFF(RTP) + 8.3386 * DIFF(RTP.1) - 13.5317 * DIFF(RTP.2) - 8.1855 * DIFF(RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

RF7074

Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 111 periods from 1981Q2 to 2008Q4

Date: 23 OCT 2009

diff(rf7074)

 = 24.2237 * diff(rtp) + 8.33858 * diff(rtp)[-1]

 (1.28864) (0.42077)

 - 13.5317 * diff(rtp)[-2] - 8.18546 * diff(rtp)[-3] + 0.01891

 (0.69102) (0.43349) (0.16535)

Sum Sq 153.213 Std Err 1.2023 LHS Mean 0.0075

R Sq 0.0218 R Bar Sq -0.0151 F 4,106 0.5903

D.W.( 1) 2.6506 D.W.( 4) 1.6645

RF75O_P = RF75O_P.1 + (-28.8294 * DIFF(RTP) + 55.5911 * DIFF(RTP.1) - 31.0676 * DIFF(RTP.2) - 15.8580 * DIFF(RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

RF75O

Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 111 periods from 1981Q2 to 2008Q4

Date: 23 OCT 2009

diff(rf75o)

 = - 28.8294 * diff(rtp) + 55.5911 * diff(rtp)[-1]

 (1.09028) (1.99419)

 - 31.0676 * diff(rtp)[-2] - 15.8580 * diff(rtp)[-3] + 0.03090

 (1.12786) (0.59703) (0.19206)

Sum Sq 303.162 Std Err 1.6912 LHS Mean 0.0324

R Sq 0.0508 R Bar Sq 0.0149 F 4,106 1.4170

D.W.( 1) 2.6248 D.W.( 4) 1.5572

UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, AGE-GENDER ADJUSTED, PRELIMINARY

RUM_ASA_P = (RM1617_P * LM1617_BY + RM1819_P * LM1819_BY + RM2024_P * LM2024_BY + RM2529_P * LM2529_BY +

 RM3034_P * LM3034_BY + RM3539_P * LM3539_BY + RM4044_P * LM4044_BY + RM4549_P * LM4549_BY +

 RM5054_P * LM5054_BY + RM5559_P * LM5559_BY + RM6064_P * LM6064_BY + RM6569_P * LM6569_BY +

 RM7074_P * LM7074_BY + RM75O_P * LM75O_BY)/ LCM_BY
94

RUF_ASA_P = (RF1617_P * LF1617_BY + RF1819_P * LF1819_BY + RF2024_P * LF2024_BY + RF2529_P * LF2529_BY +

 RF3034_P * LF3034_BY + RF3539_P * LF3539_BY + RF4044_P * LF4044_BY + RF4549_P * LF4549_BY +

 RF5054_P * LF5054_BY + RF5559_P * LF5559_BY + RF6064_P * LF6064_BY + RF6569_P * LF6569_BY +

 RF7074_P * LF7074_BY + RF75O_P * LF75O_BY)/ LCF_BY

RU_ASA_P = (RUM_ASA_P * LCM_BY + RUF_ASA_P * LCF_BY) / LC_BY

UNEMPLOYMENT RATES

MALES

RM1617= RM1617_P * (1 + RU_ASA_ADJ / RU_ASA_P)

RM1819= RM1819_P * (1 + RU_ASA_ADJ / RU_ASA_P)

RM2024= RM2024_P * (1 + RU_ASA_ADJ / RU_ASA_P)

RM2529= RM2529_P * (1 + RU_ASA_ADJ / RU_ASA_P)

RM3034= RM3034_P * (1 + RU_ASA_ADJ / RU_ASA_P)

RM3539= RM3539_P * (1 + RU_ASA_ADJ / RU_ASA_P)

RM4044= RM4044_P * (1 + RU_ASA_ADJ / RU_ASA_P)

RM4549= RM4549_P * (1 + RU_ASA_ADJ / RU_ASA_P)

RM5054= RM5054_P * (1 + RU_ASA_ADJ / RU_ASA_P)

RM5559= RM5559_P * (1 + RU_ASA_ADJ / RU_ASA_P)

RM6064= RM6064_P * (1 + RU_ASA_ADJ / RU_ASA_P)

RM6569= RM6569_P * (1 + RU_ASA_ADJ / RU_ASA_P)

RM7074= RM7074_P * (1 + RU_ASA_ADJ / RU_ASA_P)

RM75O = RM75O_P * (1 + RU_ASA_ADJ / RU_ASA_P)

FEMALES

RF1617= RF1617_P * (1 + RU_ASA_ADJ / RU_ASA_P)

RF1819= RF1819_P * (1 + RU_ASA_ADJ / RU_ASA_P)

RF2024= RF2024_P * (1 + RU_ASA_ADJ / RU_ASA_P)

RF2529= RF2529_P * (1 + RU_ASA_ADJ / RU_ASA_P)

RF3034= RF3034_P * (1 + RU_ASA_ADJ / RU_ASA_P)

RF3539= RF3539_P * (1 + RU_ASA_ADJ / RU_ASA_P)

RF4044= RF4044_P * (1 + RU_ASA_ADJ / RU_ASA_P)

RF4549= RF4549_P * (1 + RU_ASA_ADJ / RU_ASA_P)

RF5054= RF5054_P * (1 + RU_ASA_ADJ / RU_ASA_P)

RF5559= RF5559_P * (1 + RU_ASA_ADJ / RU_ASA_P)

RF6064= RF6064_P * (1 + RU_ASA_ADJ / RU_ASA_P)

RF6569= RF6569_P * (1 + RU_ASA_ADJ / RU_ASA_P)

RF7074= RF7074_P * (1 + RU_ASA_ADJ / RU_ASA_P)

RF75O = RF75O_P * (1 + RU_ASA_ADJ / RU_ASA_P)

UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, AGE-GENDER ADJUSTED

RUM_ASA = (RM1617 * LM1617_BY+ RM1819 * LM1819_BY + RM2024 * LM2024_BY + RM2529 * LM2529_BY +

 RM3034 * LM3034_BY + RM3539 * LM3539_BY + RM4044 * LM4044_BY + RM4549 * LM4549_BY +

 RM5054 * LM5054_BY + RM5559 * LM5559_BY + RM6064 * LM6064_BY + RM6569 * LM6569_BY +

 RM7074 * LM7074_BY + RM75O * LM75O_BY)/ LCM_BY

RUF_ASA = (RF1617 * LF1617_BY + RF1819 * LF1819_BY + RF2024 * LF2024_BY + RF2529 * LF2529_BY +

 RF3034 * LF3034_BY + RF3539 * LF3539_BY + RF4044 * LF4044_BY + RF4549 * LF4549_BY +

 RF5054 * LF5054_BY + RF5559 * LF5559_BY + RF6064 * LF6064_BY + RF6569 * LF6569_BY +

 RF7074 * LF7074_BY + RF75O * LF75O_BY)/ LCF_BY

RU_ASA = (RUM_ASA * LCM_BY + RUF_ASA * LCF_BY) / LC_BY
95

UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, FULL EMPLOYMENT DIFFERENTIALS

MALES

DRM1617_FE = (-36.2076 * (1 - RTP) - 14.2816 * (1 - RTP.1) - 26.6756 * (1 - RTP.2) - 16.9202 * (1 - RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

DRM1819_FE = (-48.4227 * (1 - RTP) - 25.8766 * (1 - RTP.1) - 21.7466 * (1 - RTP.2) + 1.1551 * (1 - RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

DRM2024_FE = (-51.6518 * (1 - RTP) - 16.6465 * (1 - RTP.1) - 13.1350 * (1 - RTP.2) - 10.9309 * (1 - RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

DRM2529_FE = (-37.9533 * (1 - RTP) - 17.3941 * (1 - RTP.1) - 14.9170 * (1 - RTP.2) - 7.0513 * (1 - RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

DRM3034_FE = (-23.6417 * (1 - RTP) - 14.1284 * (1 - RTP.1) - 7.5008 * (1 - RTP.2) - 9.7232 * (1 - RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

DRM3539_FE = (-27.6828 * (1 - RTP) - 5.4850 * (1 - RTP.1) - 10.8974 * (1 - RTP.2) - 9.8932 * (1 - RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

DRM4044_FE = (-14.6558 * (1 - RTP) - 14.9735 * (1 - RTP.1) - 8.2594 * (1 - RTP.2) - 5.5023 * (1 - RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

DRM4549_FE = (-20.7806 * (1 - RTP) - 11.5121 * (1 - RTP.1) - 9.9409 * (1 - RTP.2) + 1.5480 * (1 - RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

DRM5054_FE = (-19.3341 * (1 - RTP) - 9.5336 * (1 - RTP.1) - 8.8784 * (1 - RTP.2) - 7.6218 * (1 - RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

DRM5559_FE = (-25.9031 * (1 - RTP) - 11.4442 * (1 - RTP.1) - 4.5421 * (1 - RTP.2) + 0.55815 * (1 - RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

DRM6064_FE = (1.3133 * (1 - RTP) - 12.9625 * (1 - RTP.1) - 2.4816 * (1 - RTP.2) - 14.4797 * (1 - RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

DRM6569_FE = (-19.5151 * (1 - RTP) + 4.9785 * (1 - RTP.1) - 13.3449 * (1 - RTP.2) + 2.4706 * (1 - RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

DRM7074_FE = 4.1938 * (1 - RTP) - 5.9012 * (1 - RTP.1) - 27.0406 * (1 - RTP.2) + 7.0400 * (1 - RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

DRM75O_FE = (-12.1042 * (1 - RTP) - 15.6142 * (1 - RTP.1) + 7.06185 * (1 - RTP.2) - 2.5738 * (1 - RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

FEMALES

DRF1617_FE = (-27.3243 * (1 - RTP) + 13.4173 * (1 - RTP.1) - 50.4583 * (1 - RTP.2) - 0.3678 * (1 - RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

DRF1819_FE = (-42.6358 * (1 - RTP) - 13.6261 * (1 - RTP.1) + 9.5650 * (1 - RTP.2) - 31.4798 * (1 - RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

DRF2024_FE = (-16.9400 * (1 - RTP) - 13.2669 * (1 - RTP.1) - 7.8323 * (1 - RTP.2) - 8.6887 * (1 - RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

DRF2529_FE = (-15.5798 * (1 - RTP) - 11.9097 * (1 - RTP.1) - 9.8424 * (1 - RTP.2) - 2.7555 * (1 - RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

DRF3034_FE = (-12.5396 * (1 - RTP) - 1.6601 * (1 - RTP.1) - 21.0289 * (1 - RTP.2) + 0.0881 * (1 - RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

DRF3539_FE = (-21.9314 * (1 - RTP) - 3.0139 * (1 - RTP.1) - 7.8723 * (1 - RTP.2) - 6.4785 * (1 - RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

DRF4044_FE = (- 7.7893 * (1 - RTP) - 7.7152 * (1 - RTP.1) - 5.7849 * (1 - RTP.2) - 2.7298 * (1 - RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

DRF4549_FE = (- 7.8747 * (1 - RTP) - 12.5212 * (1 - RTP.1) + 3.56675 * (1 - RTP.2) - 5.4812 * (1 - RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

DRF5054_FE = (- 9.7818 * (1 - RTP) - 3.1242 * (1 - RTP.1) - 14.0327 * (1 - RTP.2) - 4.0364 * (1 - RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

DRF5559_FE = (- 2.4665 * (1 - RTP) - 4.8191 * (1 - RTP.1) - 11.4418 * (1 - RTP.2) - 3.5854 * (1 - RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

DRF6064_FE = (-22.1139 * (1 - RTP) + 4.5539 * (1 - RTP.1) - 6.2406 * (1 - RTP.2) - 7.0337 * (1 - RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

DRF6569_FE = (9.2541 * (1 - RTP) + 7.6281 * (1 - RTP.1) - 22.5230 * (1 - RTP.2) + 0.2738 * (1 - RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

DRF7074_FE = (24.2237 * (1 - RTP) + 8.3386 * (1 - RTP.1) - 13.5317 * (1 - RTP.2) - 8.1855 * (1 - RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

DRF75O_FE = (-28.8294 * (1 - RTP) + 55.5911 * (1 - RTP.1) - 31.0676 * (1 - RTP.2) - 15.8580 * (1 - RTP.3))*50.00/44.72

UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, FULL EMPLOYMENT DIFFERENTIALS

TOTALS

MALES

RM1617_FE = RM1617 + DRM1617_FE

RM1819_FE = RM1819 + DRM1819_FE

RM2024_FE = RM2024 + DRM2024_FE

RM2529_FE = RM2529 + DRM2529_FE

RM3034_FE = RM3034 + DRM3034_FE

RM3539_FE = RM3539 + DRM3539_FE

RM4044_FE = RM4044 + DRM4044_FE

RM4549_FE = RM4549 + DRM4549_FE

RM5054_FE = RM5054 + DRM5054_FE

RM5559_FE = RM5559 + DRM5559_FE

RM6064_FE = RM6064 + DRM6064_FE

RM6569_FE = RM6569 + DRM6569_FE

RM7074_FE = RM7074 + DRM7074_FE

RM75O_FE = RM75O + DRM75O_FE

RF1617_FE = RF1617 + DRF1617_FE

RF1819_FE = RF1819 + DRF1819_FE

RF2024_FE = RF2024 + DRF2024_FE

RF2529_FE = RF2529 + DRF2529_FE
96

RF3034_FE = RF3034 + DRF3034_FE

RF3539_FE = RF3539 + DRF3539_FE

RF4044_FE = RF4044 + DRF4044_FE

RF4549_FE = RF4549 + DRF4549_FE

RF5054_FE = RF5054 + DRF5054_FE

RF5559_FE = RF5559 + DRF5559_FE

RF6064_FE = RF6064 + DRF6064_FE

RF6569_FE = RF6569 + DRF6569_FE

RF7074_FE = RF7074 + DRF7074_FE

RF75O_FE = RF75O + DRF75O_FE

LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES (LFPR)

MALE LFPR EQUATIONS

AGE 16 TO 19

PM1617_P = 0.98298 - 0.000026

 - 0.368046 * RM1617DI 

 - (- 0.78720 + 0.01330 * TR_PM1617 + 0.00158 * RM1617 + 0.00180 * RM1617.1 + 0.00115 * RM1617.2 + 0.00014 * RM1617.3 -

0.00072 * RM1617.4 - 0.00094 * RM1617.5);

PM1819_P = 0.97979 - 0.000070

 - 0.614469 * RM1819DI 

 - (- 0.50476 + 0.00764 * TR_PM1819 + 0.00626 * MOVAVG(5,RM1819));

PM1617 = PM1617_P;

PM1819 = PM1819_P;

AGE 20 TO 54

NEVER MARRIED

PM2024NM_P = 1.04005 - 0.00523 - 0.000143 - 0.00225 * TR_PM2024 

 - 0.00063 * RM2024 - 0.00077 * RM2024.1 - 0.00059 * RM2024.2 - 0.00027 * RM2024.3 + 0.00005 * RM2024.4 + 0.00020 * 

RM2024.5

 - 0.788895 * RM2024DI;

PM2529NM_P = 0.97919 - 0.00809 + 0.000424 - 0.00070 * TR_PM2529 

 - 0.00028 * RM2529 - 0.00044 * RM2529.1 - 0.00050 * RM2529.2 - 0.00047 * RM2529.3 - 0.00037 * RM2529.4 - 0.00021 * 

RM2529.5

 - 0.887239 * RM2529DI;

PM3034NM_P = 0.90427 + 0.000567 

 - 0.00046 * RM3034 - 0.00061 * RM3034.1 - 0.00054 * RM3034.2 - 0.00036 * RM3034.3 - 0.00014 * RM3034.4 + 0.00001 * 

RM3034.5

 - 0.883076 * RM3034DI;

PM3539NM_P = 0.86825 - 0.000105 

 - 0.00004 * RM3539 - 0.00010 * RM3539.1 - 0.00016 * RM3539.2 - 0.00021 * RM3539.3 - 0.00021 * RM3539.4 - 0.00015 * 

RM3539.5

 - 0.846107 * RM3539DI;

PM4044NM_P = 0.83977 - 0.001481 

 - 0.00057 * RM4044 - 0.00066 * RM4044.1 - 0.00044 * RM4044.2 - 0.00009 * RM4044.3 + 0.00022 * RM4044.4 + 0.00031 * 

RM4044.5

 - 0.807518 * RM4044DI;

PM4549NM_P = 0.81116 - 0.004005

 - 0.00002 * RM4549 - 0.00016 * RM4549.1 - 0.00034 * RM4549.2 - 0.00049 * RM4549.3 - 0.00054 * RM4549.4 - 0.00040 * 

RM4549.5
97

 - 0.765856 * RM4549DI;

 

PM5054NM_P = 0.77540 - 0.010316

 + 0.00112 * RM5054 + 0.00103 * RM5054.1 + 0.00023 * RM5054.2 - 0.00078 * RM5054.3 - 0.00149 * RM5054.4 - 0.00139 * 

RM5054.5

 - 0.715161 * RM5054DI;

AGE 20 TO 54

MARRIED, SPOUSE PRESENT

PM2024MS_P = 1.03184 - 0.00733 + 0.000543 - 0.00069 * TR_PM2024 

 - 0.00063 * RM2024 - 0.00077 * RM2024.1 - 0.00059 * RM2024.2 - 0.00027 * RM2024.3 + 0.00005 * RM2024.4 + 0.00020 * 

RM2024.5 

 - 0.937270 * RM2024DI;

PM2529MS_P = 1.00110 - 0.00498 + 0.001239 - 0.00025 * TR_PM2529 

 - 0.00028 * RM2529 - 0.00044 * RM2529.1 - 0.00050 * RM2529.2 - 0.00047 * RM2529.3 - 0.00037 * RM2529.4 - 0.00021 * 

RM2529.5

 - 0.956095 * RM2529DI;

PM3034MS_P = 0.97120 + 0.001964 + 0.16457 * 1/(TR_PM3034 - 85) 

 - 0.00046 * RM3034 - 0.00061 * RM3034.1 - 0.00054 * RM3034.2 - 0.00036 * RM3034.3 - 0.00014 * RM3034.4 + 0.00001 * 

RM3034.5

 - 0.961197 * RM3034DI;

PM3539MS_P = 0.98068 + 0.002566

 - 0.00004 * RM3539 - 0.00010 * RM3539.1 - 0.00016 * RM3539.2 - 0.00021 * RM3539.3 - 0.00021 * RM3539.4 - 0.00015 * 

RM3539.5

 - 0.958567 * RM3539DI;

PM4044MS_P = 0.98250 + 0.003434

 - 0.00057 * RM4044 - 0.00066 * RM4044.1 - 0.00044 * RM4044.2 - 0.00009 * RM4044.3 + 0.00022 * RM4044.4 + 0.00031 * 

RM4044.5

 - 0.950227 * RM4044DI;

PM4549MS_P = 0.98115 + 0.004829

 - 0.00002 * RM4549 - 0.00016 * RM4549.1 - 0.00034 * RM4549.2 - 0.00049 * RM4549.3 - 0.00054 * RM4549.4 - 0.00040 * 

RM4549.5

 - 0.935691 * RM4549DI;

PM5054MS_P = 0.94484 + 0.004732

 + 0.00112 * RM5054 + 0.00103 * RM5054.1 + 0.00023 * RM5054.2 - 0.00078 * RM5054.3 - 0.00149 * RM5054.4 - 0.00139 * 

RM5054.5

 + 0.09796 * (RF5054CU6+RF5054C6O) - 0.901430 * RM5054DI;

AGE 20 TO 54

MARRIED, SPOUSE ABSENT

PM2024MA_P = 1.14087 - 0.01412 + 0.000270 - 0.00232 * TR_PM2024 

 - 0.00063 * RM2024 - 0.00077 * RM2024.1 - 0.00059 * RM2024.2 - 0.00027 * RM2024.3 + 0.00005 * RM2024.4 + 0.00020 * 

RM2024.5 

 - 0.878382 * RM2024DI;

PM2529MA_P = 0.98602 - 0.00788 + 0.000733 - 0.00051 * TR_PM2529 

 - 0.00028 * RM2529 - 0.00044 * RM2529.1 - 0.00050 * RM2529.2 - 0.00047 * RM2529.3 - 0.00037 * RM2529.4 - 0.00021 * 

RM2529.5

 - 0.913332 * RM2529DI;

PM3034MA_P = 0.93933 + 0.001197

 - 0.00046 * RM3034 - 0.00061 * RM3034.1 - 0.00054 * RM3034.2 - 0.00036 * RM3034.3 - 0.00014 * RM3034.4 + 0.00001 * 

RM3034.5

 - 0.918267 * RM3034DI;
98

PM3539MA_P = 0.92354 + 0.001209

 - 0.00004 * RM3539 - 0.00010 * RM3539.1 - 0.00016 * RM3539.2 - 0.00021 * RM3539.3 - 0.00021 * RM3539.4 - 0.00015 * 

RM3539.5

 - 0.901443 * RM3539DI;

PM4044MA_P = 0.91512 + 0.001111

 - 0.00057 * RM4044 - 0.00066 * RM4044.1 - 0.00044 * RM4044.2 - 0.00009 * RM4044.3 + 0.00022 * RM4044.4 + 0.00031 * 

RM4044.5

 - 0.882777 * RM4044DI;

PM4549MA_P = 0.89473 + 0.000334

 - 0.00002 * RM4549 - 0.00016 * RM4549.1 - 0.00034 * RM4549.2 - 0.00049 * RM4549.3 - 0.00054 * RM4549.4 - 0.00040 * 

RM4549.5 

 - 0.849283 * RM4549DI;

 

PM5054MA_P = 0.84912 - 0.004345

 + 0.00112 * RM5054 + 0.00103 * RM5054.1 + 0.00023 * RM5054.2 - 0.00078 * RM5054.3 - 0.00149 * RM5054.4 - 0.00139 * 

RM5054.5

 - 0.789075 * RM5054DI;

AGE 20 TO 54

PM2024_P = (PM2024NM_P * NM2024NM + PM2024MS_P * NM2024MS + PM2024MA_P * NM2024MA) / NM2024;

PM2529_P = (PM2529NM_P * NM2529NM + PM2529MS_P * NM2529MS + PM2529MA_P * NM2529MA) / NM2529;

PM3034_P = (PM3034NM_P * NM3034NM + PM3034MS_P * NM3034MS + PM3034MA_P * NM3034MA) / NM3034;

PM3539_P = (PM3539NM_P * NM3539NM + PM3539MS_P * NM3539MS + PM3539MA_P * NM3539MA) / NM3539;

PM4044_P = (PM4044NM_P * NM4044NM + PM4044MS_P * NM4044MS + PM4044MA_P * NM4044MA) / NM4044;

PM4549_P = (PM4549NM_P * NM4549NM + PM4549MS_P * NM4549MS + PM4549MA_P * NM4549MA) / NM4549;

PM5054_P = (PM5054NM_P * NM5054NM + PM5054MS_P * NM5054MS + PM5054MA_P * NM5054MA) / NM5054;

PM2024 = PM2024_P;

PM2529 = PM2529_P;

PM3034 = PM3034_P;

PM3539 = PM3539_P;

PM4044 = PM4044_P;

PM4549 = PM4549_P;

PM5054 = PM5054_P;

PM2024NM = PM2024NM_P * PM2024 / PM2024_P;

PM2529NM = PM2529NM_P * PM2529 / PM2529_P;

PM3034NM = PM3034NM_P * PM3034 / PM3034_P;

PM3539NM = PM3539NM_P * PM3539 / PM3539_P;

PM4044NM = PM4044NM_P * PM4044 / PM4044_P;

PM4549NM = PM4549NM_P * PM4549 / PM4549_P;

PM5054NM = PM5054NM_P * PM5054 / PM5054_P;

PM2024MS = PM2024MS_P * PM2024 / PM2024_P;

PM2529MS = PM2529MS_P * PM2529 / PM2529_P;

PM3034MS = PM3034MS_P * PM3034 / PM3034_P;

PM3539MS = PM3539MS_P * PM3539 / PM3539_P;

PM4044MS = PM4044MS_P * PM4044 / PM4044_P;

PM4549MS = PM4549MS_P * PM4549 / PM4549_P;

PM5054MS = PM5054MS_P * PM5054 / PM5054_P;

PM2024MA = PM2024MA_P * PM2024 / PM2024_P;

PM2529MA = PM2529MA_P * PM2529 / PM2529_P;

PM3034MA = PM3034MA_P * PM3034 / PM3034_P;

PM3539MA = PM3539MA_P * PM3539 / PM3539_P;

PM4044MA = PM4044MA_P * PM4044 / PM4044_P;

PM4549MA = PM4549MA_P * PM4549 / PM4549_P;

PM5054MA = PM5054MA_P * PM5054 / PM5054_P;

AGE 55 TO 61
99

PM55_P = - 0.76902 + 0.000142 - 0.818694 * RM55DI + PM55E_DE + PM55_DM

 + 0.00062 * RM5559 + 0.00041 * RM5559.1 - 0.00026 * RM5559.2 - 0.00101 * RM5559.3 - 0.00147 * RM5559.4 - 0.00126 * 

RM5559.5;

PM56_P = - 0.76098 - 0.002143 - 0.798138 * RM56DI + PM56E_DE + PM56_DM

 + 0.00062 * RM5559 + 0.00041 * RM5559.1 - 0.00026 * RM5559.2 - 0.00101 * RM5559.3 - 0.00147 * RM5559.4 - 0.00126 * 

RM5559.5;

PM57_P = - 0.71065 - 0.004979 - 0.776220 * RM57DI + PM57E_DE + PM57_DM

 + 0.00062 * RM5559 + 0.00041 * RM5559.1 - 0.00026 * RM5559.2 - 0.00101 * RM5559.3 - 0.00147 * RM5559.4 - 0.00126 * 

RM5559.5; 

PM58_P = - 0.69412 - 0.007970 - 0.755977 * RM58DI + PM58E_DE + PM58_DM

 + 0.00062 * RM5559 + 0.00041 * RM5559.1 - 0.00026 * RM5559.2 - 0.00101 * RM5559.3 - 0.00147 * RM5559.4 - 0.00126 * 

RM5559.5; 

PM59_P = - 0.60153 - 0.012123 - 0.730720 * RM59DI + PM59E_DE + PM59_DM

 + 0.00062 * RM5559 + 0.00041 * RM5559.1 - 0.00026 * RM5559.2 - 0.00101 * RM5559.3 - 0.00147 * RM5559.4 - 0.00126 * 

RM5559.5; 

PM60_P = - 0.58858 - 0.011072 + 0.000362 - 0.682175 * RM60DI + PM60E_DE + PM60_DM

 + 0.00203 * RM6064 + 0.00160 * RM6064.1 - 0.00021 * RM6064.2 - 0.00235 * RM6064.3 - 0.00374 * RM6064.4 - 0.00331 * 

RM6064.5

 + 0.01566 * PF58;

PM61_P = - 0.55646 - 0.019672 + 0.002517 - 0.647667 * RM61DI + PM61E_DE + PM61_DM

 + 0.00203 * RM6064 + 0.00160 * RM6064.1 - 0.00021 * RM6064.2 - 0.00235 * RM6064.3 - 0.00374 * RM6064.4 - 0.00331 * 

RM6064.5

 + 0.08544 * PF59;

AGE 62 TO 74

PM62_P = 0.26329 * PF60 - 0.29161 - 0.544582 * RM61DI.4 + PM62E_DE + PM62_DM - 0.056836 + 0.008814

 + 0.00203 * RM6064 + 0.00160 * RM6064.1 - 0.00021 * RM6064.2 - 0.00235 * RM6064.3 - 0.00374 * RM6064.4 - 0.00331 * 

RM6064.5

 - 0.60 * RRADJ_M62 - 0.02 * POT_ET_TXRT_62; 

PM63_P = 0.40940 * PF61 - 0.29495 - 0.480592 * RM61DI.8 + PM63E_DE + PM63_DM - 0.085295 + 0.017121

 + 0.00203 * RM6064 + 0.00160 * RM6064.1 - 0.00021 * RM6064.2 - 0.00235 * RM6064.3 - 0.00374 * RM6064.4 - 0.00331 * 

RM6064.5

 - 0.55 * RRADJ_M63 - 0.02 * POT_ET_TXRT_63; 

PM64_P = 0.47933 * PF62 - 0.22665 - 0.435189 * RM61DI.12 + PM64E_DE + PM64_DM - 0.113466 + 0.030849

 + 0.00203 * RM6064 + 0.00160 * RM6064.1 - 0.00021 * RM6064.2 - 0.00235 * RM6064.3 - 0.00374 * RM6064.4 - 0.00331 * 

RM6064.5

 - 0.50 * RRADJ_M64 - 0.02 * POT_ET_TXRT_64; 

PM65_P = 0.72722 * PF63 - 0.35819 - 0.368105 * RM61DI.16 + PM65E_DE + PM65_DM - 0.016932 + 0.059764

 + 0.00067 * RM6569 + 0.00040 * RM6569.1 - 0.00040 * RM6569.2 - 0.00127 * RM6569.3 - 0.00178 * RM6569.4 - 0.00151 * 

RM6569.5

 - 0.45 * RRADJ_M65 - 0.02 * POT_ET_TXRT_65;

PM66_P = 0.38684 * PF64 - 0.20883 - 0.330352 * RM61DI.20 + PM66E_DE + PM66_DM + 0.000194 + 0.036539

 + 0.00067 * RM6569 + 0.00040 * RM6569.1 - 0.00040 * RM6569.2 - 0.00127 * RM6569.3 - 0.00178 * RM6569.4 - 0.00151 * 

RM6569.5

 - 0.40 * RRADJ_M66 - 0.02 * POT_ET_TXRT_66;

PM67_P = 0.35012 * PF65 - 0.15975 - 0.294277 * RM61DI.24 + PM67E_DE + PM67_DM + 0.042362 - 0.012475

 + 0.00067 * RM6569 + 0.00040 * RM6569.1 - 0.00040 * RM6569.2 - 0.00127 * RM6569.3 - 0.00178 * RM6569.4 - 0.00151 * 

RM6569.5

 - 0.35 * RRADJ_M67 - 0.02 * POT_ET_TXRT_67; 

PM68_P = 0.95984 * PF66 - 0.26305 - 0.269452 * RM61DI.28 + PM68E_DE + PM68_DM + 0.057835 - 0.027492

 + 0.00067 * RM6569 + 0.00040 * RM6569.1 - 0.00040 * RM6569.2 - 0.00127 * RM6569.3 - 0.00178 * RM6569.4 - 0.00151 * 

RM6569.5

 - 0.30 * RRADJ_M68 - 0.02 * POT_ET_TXRT_68; 
100

PM69_P = 0.74113 * PF67 - 0.22589 - 0.246975 * RM61DI.32 + PM69E_DE + PM69_DM + 0.047260 - 0.018867

 + 0.00067 * RM6569 + 0.00040 * RM6569.1 - 0.00040 * RM6569.2 - 0.00127 * RM6569.3 - 0.00178 * RM6569.4 - 0.00151 * 

RM6569.5

 - 0.30 * RRADJ_M69 - 0.02 * POT_ET_TXRT_69;

PM70_P = 0.46445 * PF68 - 0.23451 - 0.220464 * RM61DI.36 + PM70E_DE + PM70_DM + 0.037323 - 0.010528

 - 0.00013 * RM7074 - 0.00016 * RM7074.1 - 0.00013 * RM7074.2 - 0.00006 * RM7074.3 + 0.00000 * RM7074.4 + 0.00003 * 

RM7074.5;

PM71_P = 0.27684 * PF69 - 0.20679 - 0.202537 * RM61DI.40 + PM71E_DE + PM71_DM + 0.030867 - 0.005653

 - 0.00013 * RM7074 - 0.00016 * RM7074.1 - 0.00013 * RM7074.2 - 0.00006 * RM7074.3 + 0.00000 * RM7074.4 + 0.00003 * 

RM7074.5;

PM72_P = 0.77240 * PF70 - 0.25289 - 0.186071 * RM61DI.44 + PM72E_DE + PM72_DM + 0.040290 - 0.012330

 - 0.00013 * RM7074 - 0.00016 * RM7074.1 - 0.00013 * RM7074.2 - 0.00006 * RM7074.3 + 0.00000 * RM7074.4 + 0.00003 * 

RM7074.5;

PM73_P = 0.65971 * PF71 - 0.19394 - 0.167545 * RM61DI.48 + PM73E_DE + PM73_DM + 0.036021 - 0.009631

 - 0.00013 * RM7074 - 0.00016 * RM7074.1 - 0.00013 * RM7074.2 - 0.00006 * RM7074.3 + 0.00000 * RM7074.4 + 0.00003 * 

RM7074.5;

PM74_P = 0.78464 * PF72 - 0.17649 - 0.147134 * RM61DI.52 + PM74E_DE + PM74_DM + 0.033451 - 0.010839

 - 0.00013 * RM7074 - 0.00016 * RM7074.1 - 0.00013 * RM7074.2 - 0.00006 * RM7074.3 + 0.00000 * RM7074.4 + 0.00003 * 

RM7074.5;

AGE 75 TO 79

PM75_P = PM74.4 * 0.920 + DPM75O_FE;

PM76_P = PM75.4 * 0.920 + DPM75O_FE;

PM77_P = PM76.4 * 0.920 + DPM75O_FE;

PM78_P = PM77.4 * 0.920 + DPM75O_FE;

PM79_P = PM78.4 * 0.920 + DPM75O_FE;

AGE 55 TO 79

PM55 = PM55_P;

PM56 = PM56_P;

PM57 = PM57_P;

PM58 = PM58_P;

PM59 = PM59_P;

PM60 = PM60_P;

PM61 = PM61_P;

PM62 = PM62_P;

PM63 = PM63_P;

PM64 = PM64_P;

PM65 = PM65_P;

PM66 = PM66_P;

PM67 = PM67_P;

PM68 = PM68_P;

PM69 = PM69_P;

PM70 = PM70_P;

PM71 = PM71_P;

PM72 = PM72_P;

PM73 = PM73_P;

PM74 = PM74_P;

PM75 = PM75_P;

PM76 = PM76_P;

PM77 = PM77_P;

PM78 = PM78_P;

PM79 = PM79_P;
101

AGE 80 AND OVER

PM80_P = PM79.4 * 0.965**( 1) + DPM75O_FE;

PM81_P = PM79.8 * 0.965**( 2) + DPM75O_FE;

PM82_P = PM79.12 * 0.965**( 3) + DPM75O_FE;

PM83_P = PM79.16 * 0.965**( 4) + DPM75O_FE;

PM84_P = PM79.20 * 0.965**( 5) + DPM75O_FE;

PM85_P = MOVAVG(8,PM79.24) * 0.965**( 6) + DPM75O_FE;

PM86_P = MOVAVG(8,PM79.28) * 0.965**( 7) + DPM75O_FE;

PM87_P = MOVAVG(8,PM79.32) * 0.965**( 8) + DPM75O_FE;

PM88_P = MOVAVG(8,PM79.36) * 0.965**( 9) + DPM75O_FE;

PM89_P = MOVAVG(8,PM79.40) * 0.965**(10) + DPM75O_FE;

PM90_P = MOVAVG(8,PM79.44) * 0.965**(11) + DPM75O_FE;

PM91_P = MOVAVG(8,PM79.48) * 0.965**(12) + DPM75O_FE;

PM92_P = MOVAVG(8,PM79.52) * 0.965**(13) + DPM75O_FE;

PM93_P = MOVAVG(8,PM79.56) * 0.965**(14) + DPM75O_FE;

PM94_P = MOVAVG(8,PM79.60) * 0.965**(15) + DPM75O_FE;

 

PM95_P = PM94_P * 0.965 + DPM75O_FE;

PM96_P = PM95_P * 0.965 + DPM75O_FE;

PM97_P = PM96_P * 0.965 + DPM75O_FE;

PM98_P = PM97_P * 0.965 + DPM75O_FE;

PM99_P = PM98_P * 0.965 + DPM75O_FE;

PM100_P = PM99_P * 0.965 + DPM75O_FE;

PM80O_P = (PM80_P*NM80 + PM81_P*NM81 + PM82_P*NM82 + PM83_P*NM83 + PM84_P*NM84 + PM85_P*NM85 + 

PM86_P*NM86 + PM87_P*NM87 + PM88_P*NM88 + PM89_P*NM89 +

 PM90_P*NM90 + PM91_P*NM91 + PM92_P*NM92 + PM93_P*NM93 + PM94_P*NM94 + PM95_P*NM95 + PM96_P*NM96 + 

PM97_P*NM97 + PM98_P*NM98 + PM99_P*NM99 +

 PM100_P*NM100 ) / NM80O;

PM80O = PM80O_P;

PM80 = PM80_P * PM80O / PM80O_P;

PM81 = PM81_P * PM80O / PM80O_P;

PM82 = PM82_P * PM80O / PM80O_P;

PM83 = PM83_P * PM80O / PM80O_P;

PM84 = PM84_P * PM80O / PM80O_P;

PM85 = PM85_P * PM80O / PM80O_P;

PM86 = PM86_P * PM80O / PM80O_P;

PM87 = PM87_P * PM80O / PM80O_P;

PM88 = PM88_P * PM80O / PM80O_P;

PM89 = PM89_P * PM80O / PM80O_P;

PM90 = PM90_P * PM80O / PM80O_P;

PM91 = PM91_P * PM80O / PM80O_P;

PM92 = PM92_P * PM80O / PM80O_P;

PM93 = PM93_P * PM80O / PM80O_P;

PM94 = PM94_P * PM80O / PM80O_P;

PM95 = PM95_P * PM80O / PM80O_P;

PM96 = PM96_P * PM80O / PM80O_P;

PM97 = PM97_P * PM80O / PM80O_P;

PM98 = PM98_P * PM80O / PM80O_P;

PM99 = PM99_P * PM80O / PM80O_P;

PM100 = PM100_P * PM80O / PM80O_P; 

FEMALE LFPR EQUATIONS

AGE 16 TO 19

PF1617_P = 0.98681 - 0.000047 - (0.377204 * RF1617DI) 

 - (- 0.00741 + 0.23393 * RF1617CU6 + 0.00051 * MOVAVG(5,RF1617))

 - (- 0.69608 + 0.01166 * TR_PF1617 + 0.00616 * MOVAVG(5,RF1617));

 

PF1819_P = 0.98200 - 0.000069
102

 - (0.584930 * RF1819DI) 

 - (-0.00080 + 0.22814 * RF1819CU6 + 0.00318 * MOVAVG(5,RF1819))

 - (- 0.53433+ 0.00764 * TR_PF1819 + 0.00667 * MOVAVG(5,RF1819));

PF1617 = PF1617_P;

PF1819 = PF1819_P;

AGE 20 TO 44

FEMALES - NEVER MARRIED WITH AT LEAST 1 OWN CHILD UNDER AGE 6

 

PF2024NMC6U_P = ( 0.70868 - 0.000477

 - 0.00087 * RF2024 - 0.00099 * RF2024.1 - 0.00063 * RF2024.2 - 0.00007 * RF2024.3 + 0.00041 * RF2024.4 + 0.00052 * 

RF2024.5

 - 0.661872 * RF2024DI)

 * 1.0160;

PF2529NMC6U_P = ( 0.74861 - 0.000966

 - 0.00056 * RF2529 - 0.00070 * RF2529.1 - 0.00057 * RF2529.2 - 0.00029 * RF2529.3 - 0.00002 * RF2529.4 + 0.00013 * 

RF2529.5

 - 0.700572 * RF2529DI)

 * 0.9981;

PF3034NMC6U_P = ( 0.73944 - 0.001998

 - 0.00081 * RF3034 - 0.00065 * RF3034.1 + 0.00005 * RF3034.2 + 0.00089 * RF3034.3 + 0.00143 * RF3034.4 + 0.00128 * 

RF3034.5

 - 0.690741 * RF3034DI)

 * 0.9980;

PF3539NMC6U_P = ( 0.75363 - 0.003230

 - 0.00195 * RF3539 - 0.00216 * RF3539.1 - 0.00128 * RF3539.2 + 0.00002 * RF3539.3 + 0.00111 * RF3539.4 + 0.00132 * 

RF3539.5

 - 0.701148 * RF3539DI)

 * 0.9989;

PF4044NMC6U_P = ( 0.73920 - 0.005589

 - 0.00026 * RF4044 - 0.00050 * RF4044.1 - 0.00068 * RF4044.2 - 0.00076 * RF4044.3 - 0.00070 * RF4044.4 - 0.00046 * 

RF4044.5

 - 0.677955 * RF4044DI)

 * 0.9989;

 

 

FEMALES - NEVER MARRIED NO OWN CHILDREN UNDER AGE 6

PF2024NMNC6_P = ( 1.13654 - 0.000206 - 0.00366 * TR_PF2024NMNC6

 - 0.00087 * RF2024 - 0.00099 * RF2024.1 - 0.00063 * RF2024.2 - 0.00007 * RF2024.3 + 0.00041 * RF2024.4 + 0.00052 * 

RF2024.5

 - 0.742995 * RF2024DI)

 * 1.0160;

PF2529NMNC6_P = ( 0.98148 + 0.000457 - 0.00111 * TR_PF2529NMNC6

 - 0.00056 * RF2529 - 0.00070 * RF2529.1 - 0.00057 * RF2529.2 - 0.00029 * RF2529.3 - 0.00002 * RF2529.4 + 0.00013 * 

RF2529.5

 - 0.853721 * RF2529DI)

 * 0.9981;

PF3034NMNC6_P = ( 0.84901 + 0.000598 

 - 0.00081 * RF3034 - 0.00065 * RF3034.1 + 0.00005 * RF3034.2 + 0.00089 * RF3034.3 + 0.00143 * RF3034.4 + 0.00128 * 

RF3034.5

 - 0.838634 * RF3034DI)

 * 0.9980;

PF3539NMNC6_P = ( 0.84953 + 0.000015 

 - 0.00195 * RF3539 - 0.00216 * RF3539.1 - 0.00128 * RF3539.2 + 0.00002 * RF3539.3 + 0.00111 * RF3539.4 + 0.00132 *

RF3539.5
103

 - 0.822121 * RF3539DI)

 * 0.9989;

PF4044NMNC6_P = ( 0.83790 - 0.000878 

 - 0.00026 * RF4044 - 0.00050 * RF4044.1 - 0.00068 * RF4044.2 - 0.00076 * RF4044.3 - 0.00070 * RF4044.4 - 0.00046 * 

RF4044.5

 - 0.799021 * RF4044DI)

 * 0.9989;

FEMALES - MARRIED SPOUSE PRESENT WITH AT LEAST 1 OWN CHILD UNDER AGE 6

PF2024MSC6U_P = ( 0.69043 - 0.000935 + 0.000015

 - 0.00087 * RF2024 - 0.00099 * RF2024.1 - 0.00063 * RF2024.2 - 0.00007 * RF2024.3 + 0.00041 * RF2024.4 + 0.00052 * 

RF2024.5

 - 0.524765 * RF2024DI - 0.1*IF2024MSC6U)

 * 1.0160;

PF2529MSC6U_P = ( 0.76218 - 0.001821 - 0.000004

 - 0.00056 * RF2529 - 0.00070 * RF2529.1 - 0.00057 * RF2529.2 - 0.00029 * RF2529.3 - 0.00002 * RF2529.4 + 0.00013 * 

RF2529.5

 - 0.608428 * RF2529DI - 0.1*IF2529MSC6U)

 * 0.9981;

PF3034MSC6U_P = ( 0.78186 - 0.002891 - 0.000006

 - 0.00081 * RF3034 - 0.00065 * RF3034.1 + 0.00005 * RF3034.2 + 0.00089 * RF3034.3 + 0.00143 * RF3034.4 + 0.00128 * 

RF3034.5

 - 0.639819 * RF3034DI - 0.1*IF3034MSC6U)

 * 0.9980;

PF3539MSC6U_P = ( 0.79072 - 0.004987 - 0.000005

 - 0.00195 * RF3539 - 0.00216 * RF3539.1 - 0.00128 * RF3539.2 + 0.00002 * RF3539.3 + 0.00111 * RF3539.4 + 0.00132 * 

RF3539.5

 - 0.635646 * RF3539DI - 0.1*IF3539MSC6U)

 * 0.9989;

PF4044MSC6U_P = ( 0.79356 - 0.007041 - 0.000008

 - 0.00026 * RF4044 - 0.00050 * RF4044.1 - 0.00068 * RF4044.2 - 0.00076 * RF4044.3 - 0.00070 * RF4044.4 - 0.00046 * 

RF4044.5

 - 0.640644 * RF4044DI - 0.1*IF4044MSC6U)

 * 0.9989;

FEMALES - MARRIED SPOUSE PRESENT NO OWN CHILDREN UNDER AGE 6

PF2024MSNC6_P = ( 0.79421 - 0.000075

 - 0.00087 * RF2024 - 0.00099 * RF2024.1 - 0.00063 * RF2024.2 - 0.00007 * RF2024.3 + 0.00041 * RF2024.4 + 0.00052 * 

RF2024.5

 - 0.781956 * RF2024DI)

 * 1.0160;

PF2529MSNC6_P = ( 0.83502 + 0.000186

 - 0.00056 * RF2529 - 0.00070 * RF2529.1 - 0.00057 * RF2529.2 - 0.00029 * RF2529.3 - 0.00002 * RF2529.4 + 0.00013 * 

RF2529.5

 - 0.824520 * RF2529DI)

 * 0.9981;

PF3034MSNC6_P = ( 0.80379 - 0.000056

 - 0.00081 * RF3034 - 0.00065 * RF3034.1 + 0.00005 * RF3034.2 + 0.00089 * RF3034.3 + 0.00143 * RF3034.4 + 0.00128 * 

RF3034.5

 - 0.801357 * RF3034DI)

 * 0.9980;

PF3539MSNC6_P = ( 0.80906 - 0.000984

 - 0.00195 * RF3539 - 0.00216 * RF3539.1 - 0.00128 * RF3539.2 + 0.00002 * RF3539.3 + 0.00111 * RF3539.4 + 0.00132 * 

RF3539.5
104

 - 0.784868 * RF3539DI)

 * 0.9989; 

PF4044MSNC6_P = ( 0.82602 - 0.001249

 - 0.00026 * RF4044 - 0.00050 * RF4044.1 - 0.00068 * RF4044.2 - 0.00076 * RF4044.3 - 0.00070 * RF4044.4 - 0.00046 * 

RF4044.5

 - 0.789470 * RF4044DI)

 * 0.9989;

FEMALES - MARRIED SPOUSE ABSENT WITH AT LEAST 1 OWN CHILD UNDER AGE 6

PF2024MAC6U_P = ( 0.95787 - 0.000403 + 0.000007

 - 0.00087 * RF2024 - 0.00099 * RF2024.1 - 0.00063 * RF2024.2 - 0.00007 * RF2024.3 + 0.00041 * RF2024.4 + 0.00052 * 

RF2024.5

 - 0.683999 * RF2024DI - 0.16722 * IF2024MAC6U)

 * 1.0160; 

PF2529MAC6U_P = ( 0.90653 - 0.000676

 - 0.00056 * RF2529 - 0.00070 * RF2529.1 - 0.00057 * RF2529.2 - 0.00029 * RF2529.3 - 0.00002 * RF2529.4 + 0.00013 * 

RF2529.5

 - 0.731798 * RF2529DI - 0.10000 * IF2529MAC6U)

 * 0.9981;

PF3034MAC6U_P = ( 0.88071 - 0.001042

 - 0.00081 * RF3034 - 0.00065 * RF3034.1 + 0.00005 * RF3034.2 + 0.00089 * RF3034.3 + 0.00143 * RF3034.4 + 0.00128 * 

RF3034.5

 - 0.745172 * RF3034DI - 0.10000 * IF3034MAC6U)

 * 0.9980;

PF3539MAC6U_P = ( 0.90258 - 0.002058

 - 0.00195 * RF3539 - 0.00216 * RF3539.1 - 0.00128 * RF3539.2 + 0.00002 * RF3539.3 + 0.00111 * RF3539.4 + 0.00132 * 

RF3539.5

 - 0.744846 * RF3539DI - 0.10000 * IF3539MAC6U)

 * 0.9989;

PF4044MAC6U_P = ( 0.89876 - 0.003975 - 0.000005

 - 0.00026 * RF4044 - 0.00050 * RF4044.1 - 0.00068 * RF4044.2 - 0.00076 * RF4044.3 - 0.00070 * RF4044.4 - 0.00046 * 

RF4044.5

 - 0.719419 * RF4044DI - 0.10000 * IF4044MAC6U)

 * 0.9989;

FEMALES - MARRIED SPOUSE ABSENT NO OWN CHILDREN UNDER AGE 6

PF2024MANC6_P = ( 0.75174 - 0.000258 + 0.000005

 - 0.00087 * RF2024 - 0.00099 * RF2024.1 - 0.00063 * RF2024.2 - 0.00007 * RF2024.3 + 0.00041 * RF2024.4 + 0.00052 * 

RF2024.5

 - 0.727427 * RF2024DI)

 * 1.0160;

PF2529MANC6_P = ( 0.82060 - 0.000015

 - 0.00056 * RF2529 - 0.00070 * RF2529.1 - 0.00057 * RF2529.2 - 0.00029 * RF2529.3 - 0.00002 * RF2529.4 + 0.00013 * 

RF2529.5

 - 0.802962 * RF2529DI)

 * 0.9981;

PF3034MANC6_P = ( 0.83806 + 0.000442

 - 0.00081 * RF3034 - 0.00065 * RF3034.1 + 0.00005 * RF3034.2 + 0.00089 * RF3034.3 + 0.00143 * RF3034.4 + 0.00128 * 

RF3034.5

 - 0.829717 * RF3034DI)

 * 0.9980;

PF3539MANC6_P = ( 0.86613 + 0.000458

 - 0.00195 * RF3539 - 0.00216 * RF3539.1 - 0.00128 * RF3539.2 + 0.00002 * RF3539.3 + 0.00111 * RF3539.4 + 0.00132 * 

RF3539.5
105

 - 0.838637 * RF3539DI)

 * 0.9989;

PF4044MANC6_P = ( 0.85937 + 0.000112

 - 0.00026 * RF4044 - 0.00050 * RF4044.1 - 0.00068 * RF4044.2 - 0.00076 * RF4044.3 - 0.00070 * RF4044.4 - 0.00046 * 

RF4044.5

 - 0.824438 * RF4044DI)

 * 0.9989;

PF2024NM_P = (PF2024NMC6U_P * NF2024NMC6U + PF2024NMNC6_P * NF2024NMNC6) / NF2024NM;

PF2024MS_P = (PF2024MSC6U_P * NF2024MSC6U + PF2024MSNC6_P * NF2024MSNC6) / NF2024MS;

PF2024MA_P = (PF2024MAC6U_P * NF2024MAC6U + PF2024MANC6_P * NF2024MANC6) / NF2024MA;

PF2529NM_P = (PF2529NMC6U_P * NF2529NMC6U + PF2529NMNC6_P * NF2529NMNC6) / NF2529NM;

PF2529MS_P = (PF2529MSC6U_P * NF2529MSC6U + PF2529MSNC6_P * NF2529MSNC6) / NF2529MS;

PF2529MA_P = (PF2529MAC6U_P * NF2529MAC6U + PF2529MANC6_P * NF2529MANC6) / NF2529MA;

PF3034NM_P = (PF3034NMC6U_P * NF3034NMC6U + PF3034NMNC6_P * NF3034NMNC6) / NF3034NM;

PF3034MS_P = (PF3034MSC6U_P * NF3034MSC6U + PF3034MSNC6_P * NF3034MSNC6) / NF3034MS;

PF3034MA_P = (PF3034MAC6U_P * NF3034MAC6U + PF3034MANC6_P * NF3034MANC6) / NF3034MA;

PF3539NM_P = (PF3539NMC6U_P * NF3539NMC6U + PF3539NMNC6_P * NF3539NMNC6) / NF3539NM;

PF3539MS_P = (PF3539MSC6U_P * NF3539MSC6U + PF3539MSNC6_P * NF3539MSNC6) / NF3539MS;

PF3539MA_P = (PF3539MAC6U_P * NF3539MAC6U + PF3539MANC6_P * NF3539MANC6) / NF3539MA;

PF4044NM_P = (PF4044NMC6U_P * NF4044NMC6U + PF4044NMNC6_P * NF4044NMNC6) / NF4044NM;

PF4044MS_P = (PF4044MSC6U_P * NF4044MSC6U + PF4044MSNC6_P * NF4044MSNC6) / NF4044MS;

PF4044MA_P = (PF4044MAC6U_P * NF4044MAC6U + PF4044MANC6_P * NF4044MANC6) / NF4044MA;

AGE 45 TO 54

FEMALES - NEVER MARRIED 45 TO 54

PF4549NM_P = 0.03650 - 0.003349 + PF4549E_DE

 - 0.00076 * RF4549 - 0.00070 * RF4549.1 - 0.00018 * RF4549.2 + 0.00049 * RF4549.3 + 0.00096 * RF4549.4 + 0.00091 * RF4549.5

 - 0.774819 * RF4549DI;

PF5054NM_P = 0.05788 - 0.008250 + PF5054E_DE 

 + 0.00003 * RF5054 - 0.00011 * RF5054.1 - 0.00032 * RF5054.2 - 0.00051 * RF5054.3 - 0.00059 * RF5054.4 - 0.00045 * RF5054.5

 - 0.732696 * RF5054DI;

FEMALES - MARRIED SPOUSE PRESENT 45 TO 54

PF4549MS_P = 0.03842 - 0.003545 + PF4549E_DE 

 - 0.00076 * RF4549 - 0.00070 * RF4549.1 - 0.00018 * RF4549.2 + 0.00049 * RF4549.3 + 0.00096 * RF4549.4 + 0.00091 * 

RF4549.5

 - 0.771341 * RF4549DI - 0.15 * RF4549MSCU6;

PF5054MS_P = - 0.40180 - 0.008735 + PF5054E_DE

 + 0.00003 * RF5054 - 0.00011 * RF5054.1 - 0.00032 * RF5054.2 - 0.00051 * RF5054.3 - 0.00059 * RF5054.4 - 0.00045 * RF5054.5

 + 0.00454 * TR_PF5054MS - 0.726715 * RF5054DI - 0.12 * RF5054MSCU6;

FEMALES - MARRIED SPOUSE ABSENT 45 TO 54

PF4549MA_P = 0.06830 - 0.001541 + PF4549E_DE 

 - 0.00076 * RF4549 - 0.00070 * RF4549.1 - 0.00018 * RF4549.2 + 0.00049 * RF4549.3 + 0.00096 * RF4549.4 + 0.00091 * 

RF4549.5

 - 0.806961 * RF4549DI - 0.1 * RF4549MACU6; 
106

PF5054MA_P = 0.08983 - 0.006021 + PF5054E_DE 

 + 0.00003 * RF5054 - 0.00011 * RF5054.1 - 0.00032 * RF5054.2 - 0.00051 * RF5054.3 - 0.00059 * RF5054.4 - 0.00045 * RF5054.5

 - 0.760157 * RF5054DI - 0.2 * RF5054MACU6; 

AGE 20 TO 54

PF2024_P = (PF2024NM_P * NF2024NM + PF2024MS_P * NF2024MS + PF2024MA_P * NF2024MA) / NF2024;

PF2529_P = (PF2529NM_P * NF2529NM + PF2529MS_P * NF2529MS + PF2529MA_P * NF2529MA) / NF2529;

PF3034_P = (PF3034NM_P * NF3034NM + PF3034MS_P * NF3034MS + PF3034MA_P * NF3034MA) / NF3034;

PF3539_P = (PF3539NM_P * NF3539NM + PF3539MS_P * NF3539MS + PF3539MA_P * NF3539MA) / NF3539;

PF4044_P = (PF4044NM_P * NF4044NM + PF4044MS_P * NF4044MS + PF4044MA_P * NF4044MA) / NF4044;

PF4549_P = (PF4549NM_P * NF4549NM + PF4549MS_P * NF4549MS + PF4549MA_P * NF4549MA) / NF4549;

PF5054_P = (PF5054NM_P * NF5054NM + PF5054MS_P * NF5054MS + PF5054MA_P * NF5054MA) / NF5054;

PF2024 = PF2024_P;

PF2529 = PF2529_P;

PF3034 = PF3034_P;

PF3539 = PF3539_P;

PF4044 = PF4044_P;

PF4549 = PF4549_P;

PF5054 = PF5054_P;

PF2024NM = PF2024NM_P * PF2024 / PF2024_P;

PF2529NM = PF2529NM_P * PF2529 / PF2529_P;

PF3034NM = PF3034NM_P * PF3034 / PF3034_P;

PF3539NM = PF3539NM_P * PF3539 / PF3539_P;

PF4044NM = PF4044NM_P * PF4044 / PF4044_P;

PF4549NM = PF4549NM_P * PF4549 / PF4549_P;

PF5054NM = PF5054NM_P * PF5054 / PF5054_P;

PF2024MS = PF2024MS_P * PF2024 / PF2024_P;

PF2529MS = PF2529MS_P * PF2529 / PF2529_P;

PF3034MS = PF3034MS_P * PF3034 / PF3034_P;

PF3539MS = PF3539MS_P * PF3539 / PF3539_P;

PF4044MS = PF4044MS_P * PF4044 / PF4044_P;

PF4549MS = PF4549MS_P * PF4549 / PF4549_P;

PF5054MS = PF5054MS_P * PF5054 / PF5054_P;

PF2024MA = PF2024MA_P * PF2024 / PF2024_P;

PF2529MA = PF2529MA_P * PF2529 / PF2529_P;

PF3034MA = PF3034MA_P * PF3034 / PF3034_P;

PF3539MA = PF3539MA_P * PF3539 / PF3539_P;

PF4044MA = PF4044MA_P * PF4044 / PF4044_P;

PF4549MA = PF4549MA_P * PF4549 / PF4549_P;

PF5054MA = PF5054MA_P * PF5054 / PF5054_P;

PF2024NMC6U = PF2024NMC6U_P * PF2024 / PF2024_P; 

PF2529NMC6U = PF2529NMC6U_P * PF2529 / PF2529_P; 

PF3034NMC6U = PF3034NMC6U_P * PF3034 / PF3034_P; 

PF3539NMC6U = PF3539NMC6U_P * PF3539 / PF3539_P; 

PF4044NMC6U = PF4044NMC6U_P * PF4044 / PF4044_P; 

PF2024NMNC6 = PF2024NMNC6_P * PF2024 / PF2024_P; 

PF2529NMNC6 = PF2529NMNC6_P * PF2529 / PF2529_P; 

PF3034NMNC6 = PF3034NMNC6_P * PF3034 / PF3034_P; 

PF3539NMNC6 = PF3539NMNC6_P * PF3539 / PF3539_P; 

PF4044NMNC6 = PF4044NMNC6_P * PF4044 / PF4044_P; 

PF2024MSC6U = PF2024MSC6U_P * PF2024 / PF2024_P; 

PF2529MSC6U = PF2529MSC6U_P * PF2529 / PF2529_P; 

PF3034MSC6U = PF3034MSC6U_P * PF3034 / PF3034_P; 

PF3539MSC6U = PF3539MSC6U_P * PF3539 / PF3539_P; 

PF4044MSC6U = PF4044MSC6U_P * PF4044 / PF4044_P; 

PF2024MSNC6 = PF2024MSNC6_P * PF2024 / PF2024_P; 

PF2529MSNC6 = PF2529MSNC6_P * PF2529 / PF2529_P; 

PF3034MSNC6 = PF3034MSNC6_P * PF3034 / PF3034_P; 
107

PF3539MSNC6 = PF3539MSNC6_P * PF3539 / PF3539_P; 

PF4044MSNC6 = PF4044MSNC6_P * PF4044 / PF4044_P; 

PF2024MAC6U = PF2024MAC6U_P * PF2024 / PF2024_P; 

PF2529MAC6U = PF2529MAC6U_P * PF2529 / PF2529_P; 

PF3034MAC6U = PF3034MAC6U_P * PF3034 / PF3034_P; 

PF3539MAC6U = PF3539MAC6U_P * PF3539 / PF3539_P; 

PF4044MAC6U = PF4044MAC6U_P * PF4044 / PF4044_P; 

PF2024MANC6 = PF2024MANC6_P * PF2024 / PF2024_P; 

PF2529MANC6 = PF2529MANC6_P * PF2529 / PF2529_P; 

PF3034MANC6 = PF3034MANC6_P * PF3034 / PF3034_P; 

PF3539MANC6 = PF3539MANC6_P * PF3539 / PF3539_P; 

PF4044MANC6 = PF4044MANC6_P * PF4044 / PF4044_P; 

AGE 55 TO 61

PF55_P = - 0.678427 * RF55DI - 0.011198

 + 0.00064 * RF5559 + 0.00041 * RF5559.1 - 0.00029 * RF5559.2 - 0.00107 * RF5559.3 - 0.00155 * RF5559.4 - 0.00132 * RF5559.5

 + PF55E_DE + PF55_DM + 0.00368 * PF55COH48 - 0.90941; 

PF56_P = - 0.651951 * RF56DI - 0.014942

 + 0.00064 * RF5559 + 0.00041 * RF5559.1 - 0.00029 * RF5559.2 - 0.00107 * RF5559.3 - 0.00155 * RF5559.4 - 0.00132 * RF5559.5

 + PF56E_DE + PF56_DM + 0.00486 * PF56COH48 - 0.96865; 

PF57_P = - 0.634496 * RF57DI - 0.018113

 + 0.00064 * RF5559 + 0.00041 * RF5559.1 - 0.00029 * RF5559.2 - 0.00107 * RF5559.3 - 0.00155 * RF5559.4 - 0.00132 * RF5559.5

 + PF57E_DE + PF57_DM + 0.00344 * PF57COH48 - 0.85033; 

PF58_P = - 0.604503 * RF58DI - 0.023096

 + 0.00064 * RF5559 + 0.00041 * RF5559.1 - 0.00029 * RF5559.2 - 0.00107 * RF5559.3 - 0.00155 * RF5559.4 - 0.00132 * RF5559.5

 + PF58E_DE + PF58_DM + 0.00362 * PF58COH48 - 0.83081; 

PF59_P = - 0.571801 * RF59DI - 0.029463

 + 0.00064 * RF5559 + 0.00041 * RF5559.1 - 0.00029 * RF5559.2 - 0.00107 * RF5559.3 - 0.00155 * RF5559.4 - 0.00132 * RF5559.5

 + PF59E_DE + PF59_DM + 0.00470 * PF59COH48 - 0.85665; 

PF60_P = - 0.526008 * RF60DI - 0.033474

 + 0.00141 * RF6064 + 0.00166 * RF6064.1 + 0.00116 * RF6064.2 + 0.00033 * RF6064.3 - 0.00041 * RF6064.4 - 0.00066 * RF6064.5

 + PF60E_DE + PF60_DM + 0.00819 * PF60COH48 - 1.18744; 

PF61_P = - 0.487750 * RF61DI - 0.041036

 + 0.00141 * RF6064 + 0.00166 * RF6064.1 + 0.00116 * RF6064.2 + 0.00033 * RF6064.3 - 0.00041 * RF6064.4 - 0.00066 * RF6064.5

 + PF61E_DE + PF61_DM + 0.00520 * PF61COH48 - 0.87850; 

AGE 62 TO 74

PF62_P = - 0.412411 * RF61DI.4 - 0.063463 

 + 0.00141 * RF6064 + 0.00166 * RF6064.1 + 0.00116 * RF6064.2 + 0.00033 * RF6064.3 - 0.00041 * RF6064.4 - 0.00066 * RF6064.5

 + PF62E_DE + PF62_DM + 0.00523 * PF62COH48 - 0.56287 - 0.5100 * RRADJ_F62 - 0.02 * POT_ET_TXRT_62; 

PF63_P = - 0.359185 * RF61DI.8 - 0.082104 

 + 0.00141 * RF6064 + 0.00166 * RF6064.1 + 0.00116 * RF6064.2 + 0.00033 * RF6064.3 - 0.00041 * RF6064.4 - 0.00066 * RF6064.5

 + PF63E_DE + PF63_DM + 0.00659 * PF63COH48 - 0.68289 - 0.4675 * RRADJ_F63 - 0.02 * POT_ET_TXRT_63; 

PF64_P = - 0.323866 * RF61DI.12 - 0.094477 

 + 0.00141 * RF6064 + 0.00166 * RF6064.1 + 0.00116 * RF6064.2 + 0.00033 * RF6064.3 - 0.00041 * RF6064.4 - 0.00066 * RF6064.5

 + PF64E_DE + PF64_DM + 0.00745 * PF64COH48 - 0.72813 - 0.4250 * RRADJ_F64 - 0.02 * POT_ET_TXRT_64;

PF65_P = - 0.256938 * RF61DI.16 + 0.035143

 + 0.00029 * RF6569 + 0.00014 * RF6569.1 - 0.00023 * RF6569.2 - 0.00063 * RF6569.3 - 0.00086 * RF6569.4 - 0.00072 * RF6569.5

 + PF65E_DE + PF65_DM + 0.00348 * PF65COH48 - 0.37490 - 0.3825 * RRADJ_F65 - 0.02 * POT_ET_TXRT_65;

PF66_P = - 0.226911 * RF61DI.20 + 0.028402
108

 + 0.00029 * RF6569 + 0.00014 * RF6569.1 - 0.00023 * RF6569.2 - 0.00063 * RF6569.3 - 0.00086 * RF6569.4 - 0.00072 * RF6569.5

 + PF66E_DE + PF66_DM + 0.00512 * PF66COH48 - 0.52851 - 0.3400 * RRADJ_F66 - 0.02 * POT_ET_TXRT_66;

PF67_P = 0.00029 * RF6569 + 0.00014 * RF6569.1 - 0.00023 * RF6569.2 - 0.00063 * RF6569.3 - 0.00086 * RF6569.4 - 0.00072 * RF6569.5

 - 0.206835 * RF61DI.24 + 0.025203 + PF67E_DE + PF67_DM + 0.00518 * PF67COH48 - 0.53735 - 0.2975 * RRADJ_F67 - 0.02 * 

POT_ET_TXRT_67;

PF68_P = 0.00029 * RF6569 + 0.00014 * RF6569.1 - 0.00023 * RF6569.2 - 0.00063 * RF6569.3 - 0.00086 * RF6569.4 - 0.00072 * RF6569.5

 - 0.180608 * RF61DI.28 + 0.020367 + PF68E_DE + PF68_DM + 0.00400 * PF68COH48 - 0.41046 - 0.2550 * RRADJ_F68 - 0.02 * 

POT_ET_TXRT_68;

PF69_P = 0.00029 * RF6569 + 0.00014 * RF6569.1 - 0.00023 * RF6569.2 - 0.00063 * RF6569.3 - 0.00086 * RF6569.4 - 0.00072 * RF6569.5

 - 0.162386 * RF61DI.32 + 0.017869 + PF69E_DE + PF69_DM + 0.00400 * PF69COH48 - 0.36706 - 0.2550 * RRADJ_F69 - 0.02 * 

POT_ET_TXRT_69;

PF70_P = - 0.00009 * RF7074 - 0.00028 * RF7074.1 - 0.00048 * RF7074.2 - 0.00063 * RF7074.3 - 0.00064 * RF7074.4 - 0.00046 * RF7074.5

 - 0.136965 * RF61DI.36 + 0.015491 + PF70E_DE + PF70_DM + 0.00424 * PF70COH48 - 0.49282;

PF71_P = - 0.00009 * RF7074 - 0.00028 * RF7074.1 - 0.00048 * RF7074.2 - 0.00063 * RF7074.3 - 0.00064 * RF7074.4 - 0.00046 * RF7074.5

 - 0.123245 * RF61DI.40 + 0.014381 + PF71E_DE + PF71_DM + 0.00300 * PF71COH48 - 0.37390;

PF72_P = - 0.00009 * RF7074 - 0.00028 * RF7074.1 - 0.00048 * RF7074.2 - 0.00063 * RF7074.3 - 0.00064 * RF7074.4 - 0.00046 * RF7074.5

 - 0.107978 * RF61DI.44 + 0.013644 + PF72E_DE + PF72_DM + 0.00286 * PF72COH48 - 0.34670;

PF73_P = - 0.00009 * RF7074 - 0.00028 * RF7074.1 - 0.00048 * RF7074.2 - 0.00063 * RF7074.3 - 0.00064 * RF7074.4 - 0.00046 * RF7074.5

 - 0.094426 * RF61DI.48 + 0.012196 + PF73E_DE + PF73_DM + 0.00370 * PF73COH48 - 0.41058;

PF74_P = - 0.00009 * RF7074 - 0.00028 * RF7074.1 - 0.00048 * RF7074.2 - 0.00063 * RF7074.3 - 0.00064 * RF7074.4 - 0.00046 * RF7074.5

 - 0.082404 * RF61DI.52 + 0.010762 + PF74E_DE + PF74_DM + 0.00304 * PF74COH48 - 0.35113;

AGE 75 TO 79

PF75_P = PF74.4 * 0.900 + DPF75O_FE;

PF76_P = PF75.4 * 0.900 + DPF75O_FE;

PF77_P = PF76.4 * 0.900 + DPF75O_FE;

PF78_P = PF77.4 * 0.900 + DPF75O_FE;

PF79_P = PF78.4 * 0.900 + DPF75O_FE;

AGE 55 TO 79

PF55 = PF55_P;

PF56 = PF56_P;

PF57 = PF57_P;

PF58 = PF58_P;

PF59 = PF59_P;

PF60 = PF60_P;

PF61 = PF61_P;

PF62 = PF62_P;

PF63 = PF63_P;

PF64 = PF64_P;

PF65 = PF65_P;

PF66 = PF66_P;

PF67 = PF67_P;

PF68 = PF68_P;

PF69 = PF69_P;

PF70 = PF70_P;

PF71 = PF71_P;

PF72 = PF72_P;

PF73 = PF73_P;

PF74 = PF74_P;

PF75 = PF75_P;

PF76 = PF76_P;

PF77 = PF77_P;

PF78 = PF78_P;
109

PF79 = PF79_P;

AGE 80 AND OVER

PF80_P = PF79.4 * 0.965**( 1) + DPF75O_FE;

PF81_P = PF79.8 * 0.965**( 2) + DPF75O_FE;

PF82_P = PF79.12 * 0.965**( 3) + DPF75O_FE;

PF83_P = PF79.16 * 0.965**( 4) + DPF75O_FE;

PF84_P = PF79.20 * 0.965**( 5) + DPF75O_FE;

PF85_P = MOVAVG(8,PF79.24) * 0.965**( 6) + DPF75O_FE;

PF86_P = MOVAVG(8,PF79.28) * 0.965**( 7) + DPF75O_FE;

PF87_P = MOVAVG(8,PF79.32) * 0.965**( 8) + DPF75O_FE;

PF88_P = MOVAVG(8,PF79.36) * 0.965**( 9) + DPF75O_FE;

PF89_P = MOVAVG(8,PF79.40) * 0.965**(10) + DPF75O_FE;

PF90_P = MOVAVG(8,PF79.44) * 0.965**(11) + DPF75O_FE;

PF91_P = MOVAVG(8,PF79.48) * 0.965**(12) + DPF75O_FE;

PF92_P = MOVAVG(8,PF79.52) * 0.965**(13) + DPF75O_FE;

PF93_P = MOVAVG(8,PF79.56) * 0.965**(14) + DPF75O_FE;

PF94_P = MOVAVG(8,PF79.60) * 0.965**(15) + DPF75O_FE;

PF95_P = PF94_P * 0.965 + DPF75O_FE;

PF96_P = PF95_P * 0.965 + DPF75O_FE;

PF97_P = PF96_P * 0.965 + DPF75O_FE;

PF98_P = PF97_P * 0.965 + DPF75O_FE;

PF99_P = PF98_P * 0.965 + DPF75O_FE;

PF100_P = PF99_P * 0.965 + DPF75O_FE;

PF80O_P = (PF80_P*NF80 + PF81_P*NF81 + PF82_P*NF82 + PF83_P*NF83 + PF84_P*NF84 + PF85_P*NF85 + PF86_P*NF86 + 

PF87_P*NF87 + PF88_P*NF88 + PF89_P*NF89 +

 PF90_P*NF90 + PF91_P*NF91 + PF92_P*NF92 + PF93_P*NF93 + PF94_P*NF94 + PF95_P*NF95 + PF96_P*NF96 +

PF97_P*NF97 + PF98_P*NF98 + PF99_P*NF99 +

 PF100_P*NF100 ) / NF80O;

PF80O = PF80O_P;

PF80 = PF80_P * PF80O / PF80O_P;

PF81 = PF81_P * PF80O / PF80O_P;

PF82 = PF82_P * PF80O / PF80O_P;

PF83 = PF83_P * PF80O / PF80O_P;

PF84 = PF84_P * PF80O / PF80O_P;

PF85 = PF85_P * PF80O / PF80O_P;

PF86 = PF86_P * PF80O / PF80O_P;

PF87 = PF87_P * PF80O / PF80O_P;

PF88 = PF88_P * PF80O / PF80O_P;

PF89 = PF89_P * PF80O / PF80O_P;

PF90 = PF90_P * PF80O / PF80O_P;

PF91 = PF91_P * PF80O / PF80O_P;

PF92 = PF92_P * PF80O / PF80O_P;

PF93 = PF93_P * PF80O / PF80O_P;

PF94 = PF94_P * PF80O / PF80O_P;

PF95 = PF95_P * PF80O / PF80O_P;

PF96 = PF96_P * PF80O / PF80O_P;

PF97 = PF97_P * PF80O / PF80O_P;

PF98 = PF98_P * PF80O / PF80O_P;

PF99 = PF99_P * PF80O / PF80O_P;

PF100 = PF100_P * PF80O / PF80O_P; 

LFPR EQUATIONS, AGE 16 AND OVER

PM16O_P= (

PM1617_P * NM1617 + 

PM1819_P * NM1819 + 

PM2024_P * NM2024 + 

PM2529_P * NM2529 + 
110

PM3034_P * NM3034 + 

PM3539_P * NM3539 + 

PM4044_P * NM4044 + 

PM4549_P * NM4549 + 

PM5054_P * NM5054 + 

PM55_P * NM55 +

PM56_P * NM56 +

PM57_P * NM57 +

PM58_P * NM58 +

PM59_P * NM59 +

PM60_P * NM60 +

PM61_P * NM61 +

PM62_P * NM62 +

PM63_P * NM63 +

PM64_P * NM64 +

PM65_P * NM65 +

PM66_P * NM66 +

PM67_P * NM67 +

PM68_P * NM68 +

PM69_P * NM69 +

PM70_P * NM70 +

PM71_P * NM71 +

PM72_P * NM72 +

PM73_P * NM73 +

PM74_P * NM74 +

PM75_P * NM75 +

PM76_P * NM76 +

PM77_P * NM77 +

PM78_P * NM78 +

PM79_P * NM79 +

PM80O_P * NM80O ) / NM16O;

PF16O_P= (

PF1617_P * NF1617 + 

PF1819_P * NF1819 + 

PF2024_P * NF2024 + 

PF2529_P * NF2529 + 

PF3034_P * NF3034 + 

PF3539_P * NF3539 + 

PF4044_P * NF4044 + 

PF4549_P * NF4549 + 

PF5054_P * NF5054 + 

PF55_P * NF55 +

PF56_P * NF56 +

PF57_P * NF57 +

PF58_P * NF58 +

PF59_P * NF59 +

PF60_P * NF60 +

PF61_P * NF61 +

PF62_P * NF62 +

PF63_P * NF63 +

PF64_P * NF64 +

PF65_P * NF65 +

PF66_P * NF66 +

PF67_P * NF67 +

PF68_P * NF68 +

PF69_P * NF69 +

PF70_P * NF70 +

PF71_P * NF71 +

PF72_P * NF72 +

PF73_P * NF73 +

PF74_P * NF74 +

PF75_P * NF75 +

PF76_P * NF76 +

PF77_P * NF77 +

PF78_P * NF78 +

PF79_P * NF79 +

PF80O_P * NF80O ) / NF16O;

P16O_P = (PM16O_P * NM16O + PF16O_P * NF16O) / (NM16O + NF16O);
111

LCM_P = PM16O_P * NM16O;

LCF_P = PF16O_P * NF16O;

LC_P = LCM_P + LCF_P;

LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES, FULL EMPLOYMENT

MALE LFPR EQUATIONS, FULL EMPLOYMENT

DPM1617_FE = (- 0.00158 * RM1617_FE - 0.00180 * RM1617_FE.1 - 0.00115 * RM1617_FE.2 - 0.00014 * RM1617_FE.3 + 0.00072 * 

RM1617_FE.4 + 0.00094 * RM1617_FE.5) - (- 0.00158 * RM1617 - 0.00180 * RM1617.1 - 0.00115 * RM1617.2 - 0.00014 * RM1617.3 + 

0.00072 * RM1617.4 + 0.00094 * RM1617.5)

Restricted Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 148 periods from 1971Q1 to 2007Q4

Date: 2 SEP 2009

pm1617_dpk

 = - 0.00158 * rm1617_dpk - 0.00180 * rm1617_dpk[-1]

 (5.56270) (6.13183)

 - 0.00115 * rm1617_dpk[-2] - 0.00014 * rm1617_dpk[-3]

 (7.49261) (0.94429)

 + 0.00072 * rm1617_dpk[-4] + 0.00094 * rm1617_dpk[-5]

 (2.47378) (3.30450)

Polynomial lags:

 rm1617_dpk

 from 0 to 5 degree 3 near far

Sum Sq 0.0343 Std Err 0.0149 LHS Mean -0.0011 Res Mean 0.0037

R Sq 0.2826 R Bar Sq 0.2777 F 2,146 28.7598 %RMSE 46265.0

D.W.( 1) 0.3942 D.W.( 4) 0.9128

DPM1819_FE = (- 0.00108 * RM1819_FE - 0.00127 * RM1819_FE.1 - 0.00088 * RM1819_FE.2 - 0.00023 * RM1819_FE.3 + 0.00034 * 

RM1819_FE.4 + 0.00053 * RM1819_FE.5) - (- 0.00108 * RM1819 - 0.00127 * RM1819.1 - 0.00088 * RM1819.2 - 0.00023 * RM1819.3 + 

0.00034 * RM1819.4 + 0.00053 * RM1819.5)

Restricted Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 148 periods from 1971Q1 to 2007Q4

Date: 2 SEP 2009

pm1819_dpk

 = - 0.00108 * rm1819_dpk - 0.00127 * rm1819_dpk[-1]

 (5.22267) (5.94236)

 - 0.00088 * rm1819_dpk[-2] - 0.00023 * rm1819_dpk[-3]

 (7.96365) (2.16526)

 + 0.00034 * rm1819_dpk[-4] + 0.00053 * rm1819_dpk[-5]

 (1.61951) (2.56002)

Polynomial lags:

 rm1819_dpk

 from 0 to 5 degree 3 near far
112

Sum Sq 0.0192 Std Err 0.0114 LHS Mean -0.0040 Res Mean 0.0008

R Sq 0.2729 R Bar Sq 0.2679 F 2,146 27.3976 %RMSE 17596.7

D.W.( 1) 0.7981 D.W.( 4) 1.2825

DPM2024_FE = (- 0.00063 * RM2024_FE - 0.00077 * RM2024_FE.1 - 0.00059 * RM2024_FE.2 - 0.00027 * RM2024_FE.3 + 0.00005 * 

RM2024_FE.4 + 0.00020 * RM2024_FE.5) - (- 0.00063 * RM2024 - 0.00077 * RM2024.1 - 0.00059 * RM2024.2 - 0.00027 * RM2024.3 + 

0.00005 * RM2024.4 + 0.00020 * RM2024.5)

Restricted Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 148 periods from 1971Q1 to 2007Q4

Date: 2 SEP 2009

pm2024_dpk

 = - 0.00063 * rm2024_dpk - 0.00077 * rm2024_dpk[-1]

 (4.32837) (5.14659)

 - 0.00059 * rm2024_dpk[-2] - 0.00027 * rm2024_dpk[-3]

 (7.47597) (3.39844)

 + 0.00005 * rm2024_dpk[-4] + 0.00020 * rm2024_dpk[-5]

 (0.35674) (1.36468)

Polynomial lags:

 rm2024_dpk

 from 0 to 5 degree 3 near far

Sum Sq 0.0067 Std Err 0.0068 LHS Mean -0.0028 Res Mean -0.0002

R Sq 0.2336 R Bar Sq 0.2284 F 2,146 22.2560 %RMSE 32980.5

D.W.( 1) 0.5915 D.W.( 4) 1.0423

DPM2529_FE = (- 0.00028 * RM2529_FE - 0.00044 * RM2529_FE.1 - 0.00050 * RM2529_FE.2 - 0.00047 * RM2529_FE.3 - 0.00037 * 

RM2529_FE.4 - 0.00021 * RM2529_FE.5) - (- 0.00028 * RM2529 - 0.00044 * RM2529.1 - 0.00050 * RM2529.2 - 0.00047 * RM2529.3 -

0.00037 * RM2529.4 - 0.00021 * RM2529.5)

Restricted Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 101 periods from 1982Q4 to 2007Q4

Date: 2 SEP 2009

pm2529_dpk

 = - 0.00028 * rm2529_dpk - 0.00044 * rm2529_dpk[-1]

 (1.40609) (2.14232)

 - 0.00050 * rm2529_dpk[-2] - 0.00047 * rm2529_dpk[-3]

 (4.60340) (4.70117)

 - 0.00037 * rm2529_dpk[-4] - 0.00021 * rm2529_dpk[-5]

 (1.87119) (1.06920)

Polynomial lags:

 rm2529_dpk

 from 0 to 5 degree 3 near far

Sum Sq 0.0026 Std Err 0.0049 LHS Mean -0.0033 Res Mean -0.0016

R Sq 0.0492 R Bar Sq 0.0396 F 2, 99 2.5598 %RMSE 48872.7

D.W.( 1) 0.7362 D.W.( 4) 1.0116

DPM3034_FE = (- 0.00046 * RM3034_FE - 0.00061 * RM3034_FE.1 - 0.00054 * RM3034_FE.2 - 0.00036 * RM3034_FE.3 - 0.00014 * 

RM3034_FE.4 + 0.00001 * RM3034_FE.5) - (- 0.00046 * RM3034 - 0.00061 * RM3034.1 - 0.00054 * RM3034.2 - 0.00036 * RM3034.3 -

0.00014 * RM3034.4 + 0.00001 * RM3034.5)

Restricted Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 101 periods from 1982Q4 to 2007Q4

Date: 2 SEP 2009

pm3034_dpk
113

 = - 0.00046 * rm3034_dpk - 0.00061 * rm3034_dpk[-1]

 (1.81713) (2.34240)

 - 0.00054 * rm3034_dpk[-2] - 0.00036 * rm3034_dpk[-3]

 (4.05252) (2.76527)

 - 0.00014 * rm3034_dpk[-4] + 0.00001 * rm3034_dpk[-5]

 (0.56353) (0.02760)

Polynomial lags:

 rm3034_dpk

 from 0 to 5 degree 3 near far

Sum Sq 0.0024 Std Err 0.0049 LHS Mean -0.0015 Res Mean -0.0001

R Sq 0.1497 R Bar Sq 0.1411 F 2, 99 8.7134 %RMSE 50015.8

D.W.( 1) 0.6227 D.W.( 4) 0.8678

DPM3539_FE = (- 0.00004 * RM3539_FE - 0.00010 * RM3539_FE.1 - 0.00016 * RM3539_FE.2 - 0.00021 * RM3539_FE.3 - 0.00021 * 

RM3539_FE.4 - 0.00015 * RM3539_FE.5) - (- 0.00004 * RM3539 - 0.00010 * RM3539.1 - 0.00016 * RM3539.2 - 0.00021 * RM3539.3 -

0.00021 * RM3539.4 - 0.00015 * RM3539.5)

Restricted Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 101 periods from 1982Q4 to 2007Q4

Date: 2 SEP 2009

pm3539_dpk

 = - 0.00004 * rm3539_dpk - 0.00010 * rm3539_dpk[-1]

 (0.12650) (0.32986)

 - 0.00016 * rm3539_dpk[-2] - 0.00021 * rm3539_dpk[-3]

 (1.10007) (1.48792)

 - 0.00021 * rm3539_dpk[-4] - 0.00015 * rm3539_dpk[-5]

 (0.72412) (0.51868)

Polynomial lags:

 rm3539_dpk

 from 0 to 5 degree 3 near far

Sum Sq 0.0028 Std Err 0.0052 LHS Mean -0.0017 Res Mean -0.0010

R Sq -0.0664 R Bar Sq -0.0772 F 2, 99 NC %RMSE 1817.43

D.W.( 1) 0.4246 D.W.( 4) 0.5372

DPM4044_FE = (- 0.00057 * RM4044_FE - 0.00066 * RM4044_FE.1 - 0.00044 * RM4044_FE.2 - 0.00009 * RM4044_FE.3 + 0.00022 * 

RM4044_FE.4 + 0.00031 * RM4044_FE.5) - (- 0.00057 * RM4044 - 0.00066 * RM4044.1 - 0.00044 * RM4044.2 - 0.00009 * RM4044.3 + 

0.00022 * RM4044.4 + 0.00031 * RM4044.5)

Restricted Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 101 periods from 1982Q4 to 2007Q4

Date: 2 SEP 2009

pm4044_dpk

 = - 0.00057 * rm4044_dpk - 0.00066 * rm4044_dpk[-1]

 (1.75853) (1.97180)

 - 0.00044 * rm4044_dpk[-2] - 0.00009 * rm4044_dpk[-3]

 (2.56550) (0.54915)

 + 0.00022 * rm4044_dpk[-4] + 0.00031 * rm4044_dpk[-5]

 (0.66426) (0.95499)

Polynomial lags:

 rm4044_dpk
114

 from 0 to 5 degree 3 near far

Sum Sq 0.0029 Std Err 0.0054 LHS Mean -0.0012 Res Mean -0.0004

R Sq 0.0268 R Bar Sq 0.0170 F 2, 99 1.3647 %RMSE 310.335

D.W.( 1) 0.5028 D.W.( 4) 0.7333

DPM4549_FE = (- 0.00002 * RM4549_FE - 0.00016 * RM4549_FE.1 - 0.00034 * RM4549_FE.2 - 0.00049 * RM4549_FE.3 - 0.00054 * 

RM4549_FE.4 - 0.00040 * RM4549_FE.5) - (- 0.00002 * RM4549 - 0.00016 * RM4549.1 - 0.00034 * RM4549.2 - 0.00049 * RM4549.3 -

0.00054 * RM4549.4 - 0.00040 * RM4549.5)

Restricted Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 101 periods from 1982Q4 to 2007Q4

Date: 2 SEP 2009

pm4549_dpk

 = - 0.00002 * rm4549_dpk - 0.00016 * rm4549_dpk[-1]

 (0.06650) (0.55897)

 - 0.00034 * rm4549_dpk[-2] - 0.00049 * rm4549_dpk[-3]

 (2.31789) (3.39192)

 - 0.00054 * rm4549_dpk[-4] - 0.00040 * rm4549_dpk[-5]

 (1.92566) (1.46813)

Polynomial lags:

 rm4549_dpk

 from 0 to 5 degree 3 near far

Sum Sq 0.0015 Std Err 0.0039 LHS Mean -0.0013 Res Mean -0.0003

R Sq 0.0719 R Bar Sq 0.0625 F 2, 99 3.8350 %RMSE 4821.60

D.W.( 1) 0.7819 D.W.( 4) 1.0968

DPM5054_FE = ( 0.00112 * RM5054_FE + 0.00103 * RM5054_FE.1 + 0.00023 * RM5054_FE.2 - 0.00078 * RM5054_FE.3 - 0.00149 * 

RM5054_FE.4 - 0.00139 * RM5054_FE.5) - ( 0.00112 * RM5054 + 0.00103 * RM5054.1 + 0.00023 * RM5054.2 - 0.00078 * RM5054.3 -

0.00149 * RM5054.4 - 0.00139 * RM5054.5)

Restricted Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 101 periods from 1982Q4 to 2007Q4

Date: 2 SEP 2009

pm5054_dpk

 = 0.00112 * rm5054_dpk + 0.00103 * rm5054_dpk[-1]

 (3.16181) (2.84569)

 + 0.00023 * rm5054_dpk[-2] - 0.00078 * rm5054_dpk[-3]

 (1.30991) (4.52791)

 - 0.00149 * rm5054_dpk[-4] - 0.00139 * rm5054_dpk[-5]

 (4.15166) (3.96094)

Polynomial lags:

 rm5054_dpk

 from 0 to 5 degree 3 near far

Sum Sq 0.0037 Std Err 0.0061 LHS Mean -0.0012 Res Mean 0.0001

R Sq 0.1417 R Bar Sq 0.1330 F 2, 99 8.1732 %RMSE 42597.0

D.W.( 1) 1.0445 D.W.( 4) 1.5173

DPM5559_FE = ( 0.00062 * RM5559_FE + 0.00041 * RM5559_FE.1 - 0.00026 * RM5559_FE.2 - 0.00101 * RM5559_FE.3 - 0.00147 * 

RM5559_FE.4 - 0.00126 * RM5559_FE.5) - ( 0.00062 * RM5559 + 0.00041 * RM5559.1 - 0.00026 * RM5559.2 - 0.00101 * RM5559.3 -

0.00147 * RM5559.4 - 0.00126 * RM5559.5)

Restricted Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 101 periods from 1982Q4 to 2007Q4
115

Date: 2 SEP 2009

pm5559_dpk

 = 0.00062 * rm5559_dpk + 0.00041 * rm5559_dpk[-1]

 (1.23508) (0.79452)

 - 0.00026 * rm5559_dpk[-2] - 0.00101 * rm5559_dpk[-3]

 (1.02810) (4.16786)

 - 0.00147 * rm5559_dpk[-4] - 0.00126 * rm5559_dpk[-5]

 (2.91432) (2.53301)

Polynomial lags:

 rm5559_dpk

 from 0 to 5 degree 3 near far

Sum Sq 0.0066 Std Err 0.0080 LHS Mean -0.0037 Res Mean -0.0014

R Sq 0.0164 R Bar Sq 0.0065 F 2, 99 0.8277 %RMSE 256947

D.W.( 1) 0.8793 D.W.( 4) 1.2992

DPM6064_FE = ( 0.00203 * RM6064_FE + 0.00160 * RM6064_FE.1 - 0.00021 * RM6064_FE.2 - 0.00235 * RM6064_FE.3 - 0.00374 * 

RM6064_FE.4 - 0.00331 * RM6064_FE.5) - ( 0.00203 * RM6064 + 0.00160 * RM6064.1 - 0.00021 * RM6064.2 - 0.00235 * RM6064.3 -

0.00374 * RM6064.4 - 0.00331 * RM6064.5)

Restricted Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 101 periods from 1982Q4 to 2007Q4

Date: 2 SEP 2009

pm6064_dpk

 = 0.00203 * rm6064_dpk + 0.00160 * rm6064_dpk[-1]

 (2.66008) (2.03611)

 - 0.00021 * rm6064_dpk[-2] - 0.00235 * rm6064_dpk[-3]

 (0.51861) (5.71949)

 - 0.00374 * rm6064_dpk[-4] - 0.00331 * rm6064_dpk[-5]

 (4.77362) (4.35298)

Polynomial lags:

 rm6064_dpk

 from 0 to 5 degree 3 near far

Sum Sq 0.0165 Std Err 0.0110 LHS Mean -0.0095 Res Mean -0.0067

R Sq -0.2740 R Bar Sq -0.2869 F 2, 99 NC %RMSE 21316.0

D.W.( 1) 0.5297 D.W.( 4) 0.7821

DPM6569_FE = ( 0.00067 * RM6569_FE + 0.00040 * RM6569_FE.1 - 0.00040 * RM6569_FE.2 - 0.00127 * RM6569_FE.3 - 0.00178 * 

RM6569_FE.4 - 0.00151 * RM6569_FE.5) - ( 0.00067 * RM6569 + 0.00040 * RM6569.1 - 0.00040 * RM6569.2 - 0.00127 * RM6569.3 -

0.00178 * RM6569.4 - 0.00151 * RM6569.5)

Restricted Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 101 periods from 1982Q4 to 2007Q4

Date: 2 SEP 2009

pm6569_dpk

 = 0.00067 * rm6569_dpk + 0.00040 * rm6569_dpk[-1]

 (0.93838) (0.52443)

 - 0.00040 * rm6569_dpk[-2] - 0.00127 * rm6569_dpk[-3]

 (0.89477) (2.96224)

 - 0.00178 * rm6569_dpk[-4] - 0.00151 * rm6569_dpk[-5]

 (2.41737) (2.13109)
116

Polynomial lags:

 rm6569_dpk

 from 0 to 5 degree 3 near far

Sum Sq 0.0210 Std Err 0.0138 LHS Mean -0.0059 Res Mean -0.0047

R Sq -0.0832 R Bar Sq -0.0942 F 2, 99 NC %RMSE 36465.0

D.W.( 1) 0.5122 D.W.( 4) 0.7034

DPM7074_FE = (- 0.00013 * RM7074_FE - 0.00016 * RM7074_FE.1 - 0.00013 * RM7074_FE.2 - 0.00006 * RM7074_FE.3 + 0.00000 * 

RM7074_FE.4 + 0.00003 * RM7074_FE.5) - (- 0.00013 * RM7074 - 0.00016 * RM7074.1 - 0.00013 * RM7074.2 - 0.00006 * RM7074.3 + 

0.00000 * RM7074.4 + 0.00003 * RM7074.5)

Restricted Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 101 periods from 1982Q4 to 2007Q4

Date: 2 SEP 2009

pm7074_dpk

 = - 0.00013 * rm7074_dpk - 0.00016 * rm7074_dpk[-1]

 (0.30689) (0.35702)

 - 0.00013 * rm7074_dpk[-2] - 0.00006 * rm7074_dpk[-3]

 (0.44247) (0.21289)

 + 0.00000 * rm7074_dpk[-4] + 0.00003 * rm7074_dpk[-5]

 (0.00874) (0.08371)

Polynomial lags:

 rm7074_dpk

 from 0 to 5 degree 3 near far

Sum Sq 0.0114 Std Err 0.0080 LHS Mean -0.0073 Res Mean -0.0071

R Sq -0.8795 R Bar Sq -0.8984 F 2, 99 NC %RMSE 1540.73

D.W.( 1) 0.5068 D.W.( 4) 0.7160

DPM75O_FE = (- 0.00043 * RM75O_FE - 0.00051 * RM75O_FE.1 - 0.00036 * RM75O_FE.2 - 0.00010 * RM75O_FE.3 + 0.00013 * 

RM75O_FE.4 + 0.00021 * RM75O_FE.5) - (- 0.00043 * RM75O - 0.00051 * RM75O.1 - 0.00036 * RM75O.2 - 0.00010 * RM75O.3 + 0.00013 

* RM75O.4 + 0.00021 * RM75O.5)

Restricted Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 101 periods from 1982Q4 to 2007Q4

Date: 2 SEP 2009

pm75o_dpk

 = - 0.00043 * rm75o_dpk - 0.00051 * rm75o_dpk[-1]

 (1.82379) (2.03996)

 - 0.00036 * rm75o_dpk[-2] - 0.00010 * rm75o_dpk[-3]

 (2.39851) (0.66247)

 + 0.00013 * rm75o_dpk[-4] + 0.00021 * rm75o_dpk[-5]

 (0.51659) (0.86124)

Polynomial lags:

 rm75o_dpk

 from 0 to 5 degree 3 near far

Sum Sq 0.0039 Std Err 0.0058 LHS Mean -0.0031 Res Mean -0.0025

R Sq -0.2424 R Bar Sq -0.2549 F 2, 99 NC %RMSE 19877.0

D.W.( 1) 0.8382 D.W.( 4) 1.0542
117

FEMALE LFPR EQUATIONS, FULL EMPLOYMENT DIFFERENTIALS

DPF1617_FE = (- 0.00224 * RF1617_FE - 0.00239 * RF1617_FE.1 - 0.00126 * RF1617_FE.2 + 0.00035 * RF1617_FE.3 + 0.00163 * 

RF1617_FE.4 + 0.00178 * RF1617_FE.5) - (- 0.00224 * RF1617 - 0.00239 * RF1617.1 - 0.00126 * RF1617.2 + 0.00035 * RF1617.3 + 0.00163 

* RF1617.4 + 0.00178 * RF1617.5)

Restricted Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 148 periods from 1971Q1 to 2007Q4

Date: 2 SEP 2009

pf1617_dpk

 = - 0.00224 * rf1617_dpk - 0.00239 * rf1617_dpk[-1]

 (5.90261) (6.13505)

 - 0.00126 * rf1617_dpk[-2] + 0.00035 * rf1617_dpk[-3]

 (6.26010) (1.72973)

 + 0.00163 * rf1617_dpk[-4] + 0.00178 * rf1617_dpk[-5]

 (4.17464) (4.69274)

Polynomial lags:

 rf1617_dpk

 from 0 to 5 degree 3 near far

Sum Sq 0.0354 Std Err 0.0153 LHS Mean 0.0006 Res Mean 0.0030

R Sq 0.2161 R Bar Sq 0.2107 F 2,146 20.1227 %RMSE 28883.0

D.W.( 1) 0.4141 D.W.( 4) 0.9322

DPF1819_FE = (- 0.00124 * RF1819_FE - 0.00147 * RF1819_FE.1 - 0.00106 * RF1819_FE.2 - 0.00035 * RF1819_FE.3 + 0.00030 * 

RF1819_FE.4 + 0.00053 * RF1819_FE.5) - (- 0.00124 * RF1819 - 0.00147 * RF1819.1 - 0.00106 * RF1819.2 - 0.00035 * RF1819.3 + 0.00030 * 

RF1819.4 + 0.00053 * RF1819.5)

Restricted Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 148 periods from 1971Q1 to 2007Q4

Date: 2 SEP 2009

pf1819_dpk

 = - 0.00124 * rf1819_dpk - 0.00147 * rf1819_dpk[-1]

 (4.35316) (5.03839)

 - 0.00106 * rf1819_dpk[-2] - 0.00035 * rf1819_dpk[-3]

 (7.08785) (2.38461)

 + 0.00030 * rf1819_dpk[-4] + 0.00053 * rf1819_dpk[-5]

 (1.03892) (1.89331)

Polynomial lags:

 rf1819_dpk

 from 0 to 5 degree 3 near far

Sum Sq 0.0217 Std Err 0.0120 LHS Mean -0.0031 Res Mean 0.0021

R Sq 0.2645 R Bar Sq 0.2594 F 2,146 26.2493 %RMSE 53411.9

D.W.( 1) 0.8392 D.W.( 4) 1.3288

DPF2024_FE = (- 0.00087 * RF2024_FE - 0.00099 * RF2024_FE.1 - 0.00063 * RF2024_FE.2 - 0.00007 * RF2024_FE.3 + 0.00041 * 

RF2024_FE.4 + 0.00052 * RF2024_FE.5) - (- 0.00087 * RF2024 - 0.00099 * RF2024.1 - 0.00063 * RF2024.2 - 0.00007 * RF2024.3 + 0.00041 

* RF2024.4 + 0.00052 * RF2024.5)

Restricted Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 148 periods from 1971Q1 to 2007Q4

Date: 2 SEP 2009
118

pf2024_dpk

 = - 0.00087 * rf2024_dpk - 0.00099 * rf2024_dpk[-1]

 (1.95040) (2.16369)

 - 0.00063 * rf2024_dpk[-2] - 0.00007 * rf2024_dpk[-3]

 (2.80524) (0.30336)

 + 0.00041 * rf2024_dpk[-4] + 0.00052 * rf2024_dpk[-5]

 (0.90125) (1.17782)

Polynomial lags:

 rf2024_dpk

 from 0 to 5 degree 3 near far

Sum Sq 0.0212 Std Err 0.0120 LHS Mean -0.0017 Res Mean 0.0002

R Sq 0.0408 R Bar Sq 0.0343 F 2,146 3.1076 %RMSE 51970.8

D.W.( 1) 0.2424 D.W.( 4) 0.5144

DPF2529_FE = (- 0.00056 * RF2529_FE - 0.00070 * RF2529_FE.1 - 0.00057 * RF2529_FE.2 - 0.00029 * RF2529_FE.3 - 0.00002 * 

RF2529_FE.4 + 0.00013 * RF2529_FE.5) - (- 0.00056 * RF2529 - 0.00070 * RF2529.1 - 0.00057 * RF2529.2 - 0.00029 * RF2529.3 - 0.00002 * 

RF2529.4 + 0.00013 * RF2529.5)

Restricted Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 101 periods from 1982Q4 to 2007Q4

Date: 2 SEP 2009

pf2529_dpk

 = - 0.00056 * rf2529_dpk - 0.00070 * rf2529_dpk[-1]

 (0.83571) (1.02414)

 - 0.00057 * rf2529_dpk[-2] - 0.00029 * rf2529_dpk[-3]

 (1.64524) (0.87576)

 - 0.00002 * rf2529_dpk[-4] + 0.00013 * rf2529_dpk[-5]

 (0.02505) (0.19165)

Polynomial lags:

 rf2529_dpk

 from 0 to 5 degree 3 near far

Sum Sq 0.0129 Std Err 0.0110 LHS Mean 0.0014 Res Mean 0.0030

R Sq 0.0265 R Bar Sq 0.0167 F 2, 99 1.3467 %RMSE 1908.57

D.W.( 1) 0.2611 D.W.( 4) 0.6593

DPF3034_FE = (- 0.00081 * RF3034_FE - 0.00065 * RF3034_FE.1 + 0.00005 * RF3034_FE.2 + 0.00089 * RF3034_FE.3 + 0.00143 * 

RF3034_FE.4 + 0.00128 * RF3034_FE.5) - (- 0.00081 * RF3034 - 0.00065 * RF3034.1 + 0.00005 * RF3034.2 + 0.00089 * RF3034.3 + 0.00143 

* RF3034.4 + 0.00128 * RF3034.5)

Restricted Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 101 periods from 1982Q4 to 2007Q4

Date: 2 SEP 2009

pf3034_dpk

 = - 0.00081 * rf3034_dpk - 0.00065 * rf3034_dpk[-1]

 (1.30466) (1.02194)

 + 0.00005 * rf3034_dpk[-2] + 0.00089 * rf3034_dpk[-3]

 (0.16121) (2.80112)

 + 0.00143 * rf3034_dpk[-4] + 0.00128 * rf3034_dpk[-5]

 (2.29055) (2.08640)

Polynomial lags:
119

 rf3034_dpk

 from 0 to 5 degree 3 near far

Sum Sq 0.0083 Std Err 0.0088 LHS Mean 0.0040 Res Mean 0.0026

R Sq -0.1326 R Bar Sq -0.1440 F 2, 99 NC %RMSE 29049.2

D.W.( 1) 0.3221 D.W.( 4) 0.8675

DPF3539_FE = (- 0.00195 * RF3539_FE - 0.00216 * RF3539_FE.1 - 0.00128 * RF3539_FE.2 + 0.00002 * RF3539_FE.3 + 0.00111 * 

RF3539_FE.4 + 0.00132 * RF3539_FE.5) - (- 0.00195 * RF3539 - 0.00216 * RF3539.1 - 0.00128 * RF3539.2 + 0.00002 * RF3539.3 + 0.00111 

* RF3539.4 + 0.00132 * RF3539.5)

Restricted Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 101 periods from 1982Q4 to 2007Q4

Date: 2 SEP 2009

pf3539_dpk

 = - 0.00195 * rf3539_dpk - 0.00216 * rf3539_dpk[-1]

 (2.96355) (3.19201)

 - 0.00128 * rf3539_dpk[-2] + 0.00002 * rf3539_dpk[-3]

 (3.74105) (0.06643)

 + 0.00111 * rf3539_dpk[-4] + 0.00132 * rf3539_dpk[-5]

 (1.67998) (2.03681)

Polynomial lags:

 rf3539_dpk

 from 0 to 5 degree 3 near far

Sum Sq 0.0079 Std Err 0.0089 LHS Mean -0.0021 Res Mean -0.0007

R Sq 0.0801 R Bar Sq 0.0708 F 2, 99 4.3116 %RMSE 6918.68

D.W.( 1) 0.3914 D.W.( 4) 0.5620

DPF4044_FE = (- 0.00026 * RF4044_FE - 0.00050 * RF4044_FE.1 - 0.00068 * RF4044_FE.2 - 0.00076 * RF4044_FE.3 - 0.00070 * 

RF4044_FE.4 - 0.00046 * RF4044_FE.5) - (- 0.00026 * RF4044 - 0.00050 * RF4044.1 - 0.00068 * RF4044.2 - 0.00076 * RF4044.3 - 0.00070 * 

RF4044.4 - 0.00046 * RF4044.5)

Restricted Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 101 periods from 1982Q4 to 2007Q4

Date: 2 SEP 2009

pf4044_dpk

 = - 0.00026 * rf4044_dpk - 0.00050 * rf4044_dpk[-1]

 (0.53052) (0.99291)

 - 0.00068 * rf4044_dpk[-2] - 0.00076 * rf4044_dpk[-3]

 (2.55091) (2.90760)

 - 0.00070 * rf4044_dpk[-4] - 0.00046 * rf4044_dpk[-5]

 (1.41817) (0.96194)

Polynomial lags:

 rf4044_dpk

 from 0 to 5 degree 3 near far

Sum Sq 0.0041 Std Err 0.0061 LHS Mean 0.0005 Res Mean 0.0021

R Sq 0.1306 R Bar Sq 0.1218 F 2, 99 7.4378 %RMSE 4872.89

D.W.( 1) 0.5681 D.W.( 4) 0.8422

DPF4549_FE = (- 0.00076 * RF4549_FE - 0.00070 * RF4549_FE.1 - 0.00018 * RF4549_FE.2 + 0.00049 * RF4549_FE.3 + 0.00096 * 

RF4549_FE.4 + 0.00091 * RF4549_FE.5) - (- 0.00076 * RF4549 - 0.00070 * RF4549.1 - 0.00018 * RF4549.2 + 0.00049 * RF4549.3 + 0.00096 

* RF4549.4 + 0.00091 * RF4549.5)
120

Restricted Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 101 periods from 1982Q4 to 2007Q4

Date: 2 SEP 2009

pf4549_dpk

 = - 0.00076 * rf4549_dpk - 0.00070 * rf4549_dpk[-1]

 (1.20345) (1.08117)

 - 0.00018 * rf4549_dpk[-2] + 0.00049 * rf4549_dpk[-3]

 (0.50034) (1.36204)

 + 0.00096 * rf4549_dpk[-4] + 0.00091 * rf4549_dpk[-5]

 (1.47572) (1.44905)

Polynomial lags:

 rf4549_dpk

 from 0 to 5 degree 3 near far

Sum Sq 0.0046 Std Err 0.0063 LHS Mean 0.0028 Res Mean 0.0027

R Sq -0.1835 R Bar Sq -0.1954 F 2, 99 NC %RMSE 316691

D.W.( 1) 0.7137 D.W.( 4) 0.9879

DPF5054_FE = ( 0.00003 * RF5054_FE - 0.00011 * RF5054_FE.1 - 0.00032 * RF5054_FE.2 - 0.00051 * RF5054_FE.3 - 0.00059 * 

RF5054_FE.4 - 0.00045 * RF5054_FE.5) - ( 0.00003 * RF5054 - 0.00011 * RF5054.1 - 0.00032 * RF5054.2 - 0.00051 * RF5054.3 - 0.00059 * 

RF5054.4 - 0.00045 * RF5054.5)

Restricted Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 101 periods from 1982Q4 to 2007Q4

Date: 2 SEP 2009

pf5054_dpk

 = 0.00003 * rf5054_dpk - 0.00011 * rf5054_dpk[-1]

 (0.05929) (0.18046)

 - 0.00032 * rf5054_dpk[-2] - 0.00051 * rf5054_dpk[-3]

 (1.13804) (1.96823)

 - 0.00059 * rf5054_dpk[-4] - 0.00045 * rf5054_dpk[-5]

 (1.04732) (0.80816)

Polynomial lags:

 rf5054_dpk

 from 0 to 5 degree 3 near far

Sum Sq 0.0054 Std Err 0.0073 LHS Mean -0.0004 Res Mean 0.0010

R Sq 0.0704 R Bar Sq 0.0611 F 2, 99 3.7511 %RMSE 66278.7

D.W.( 1) 0.8578 D.W.( 4) 1.1467

DPF5559_FE = ( 0.00064 * RF5559_FE + 0.00041 * RF5559_FE.1 - 0.00029 * RF5559_FE.2 - 0.00107 * RF5559_FE.3 - 0.00155 * 

RF5559_FE.4 - 0.00132 * RF5559_FE.5) - ( 0.00064 * RF5559 + 0.00041 * RF5559.1 - 0.00029 * RF5559.2 - 0.00107 * RF5559.3 - 0.00155 * 

RF5559.4 - 0.00132 * RF5559.5)

Restricted Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 101 periods from 1982Q4 to 2007Q4

Date: 2 SEP 2009

pf5559_dpk

 = 0.00064 * rf5559_dpk + 0.00041 * rf5559_dpk[-1]

 (0.89335) (0.55546)

 - 0.00029 * rf5559_dpk[-2] - 0.00107 * rf5559_dpk[-3]

 (0.75840) (2.90227)

 - 0.00155 * rf5559_dpk[-4] - 0.00132 * rf5559_dpk[-5]
121

 (2.15075) (1.87882)

Polynomial lags:

 rf5559_dpk

 from 0 to 5 degree 3 near far

Sum Sq 0.0102 Std Err 0.0102 LHS Mean -0.0011 Res Mean 0.0005

R Sq 0.0769 R Bar Sq 0.0676 F 2, 99 4.1224 %RMSE 4599.06

D.W.( 1) 0.8791 D.W.( 4) 0.8944

DPF6064_FE = ( 0.00141 * RF6064_FE + 0.00166 * RF6064_FE.1 + 0.00116 * RF6064_FE.2 + 0.00033 * RF6064_FE.3 - 0.00041 * 

RF6064_FE.4 - 0.00066 * RF6064_FE.5) - ( 0.00141 * RF6064 + 0.00166 * RF6064.1 + 0.00116 * RF6064.2 + 0.00033 * RF6064.3 - 0.00041 * 

RF6064.4 - 0.00066 * RF6064.5)

Restricted Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 101 periods from 1982Q4 to 2007Q4

Date: 2 SEP 2009

pf6064_dpk

 = 0.00141 * rf6064_dpk + 0.00166 * rf6064_dpk[-1]

 (1.84124) (2.11172)

 + 0.00116 * rf6064_dpk[-2] + 0.00033 * rf6064_dpk[-3]

 (2.99557) (0.93319)

 - 0.00041 * rf6064_dpk[-4] - 0.00066 * rf6064_dpk[-5]

 (0.54220) (0.88278)

Polynomial lags:

 rf6064_dpk

 from 0 to 5 degree 3 near far

Sum Sq 0.0113 Std Err 0.0105 LHS Mean 0.0007 Res Mean -0.0017

R Sq 0.1074 R Bar Sq 0.0984 F 2, 99 5.9541 %RMSE 8386.58

D.W.( 1) 0.6636 D.W.( 4) 0.8453

DPF6569_FE = ( 0.00029 * RF6569_FE + 0.00014 * RF6569_FE.1 - 0.00023 * RF6569_FE.2 - 0.00063 * RF6569_FE.3 - 0.00086 * 

RF6569_FE.4 - 0.00072 * RF6569_FE.5) - ( 0.00029 * RF6569 + 0.00014 * RF6569.1 - 0.00023 * RF6569.2 - 0.00063 * RF6569.3 - 0.00086 * 

RF6569.4 - 0.00072 * RF6569.5)

Restricted Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 101 periods from 1982Q4 to 2007Q4

Date: 2 SEP 2009

pf6569_dpk

 = 0.00029 * rf6569_dpk + 0.00014 * rf6569_dpk[-1]

 (0.39369) (0.18572)

 - 0.00023 * rf6569_dpk[-2] - 0.00063 * rf6569_dpk[-3]

 (0.46891) (1.29792)

 - 0.00086 * rf6569_dpk[-4] - 0.00072 * rf6569_dpk[-5]

 (1.10980) (0.98371)

Polynomial lags:

 rf6569_dpk

 from 0 to 5 degree 3 near far

Sum Sq 0.0161 Std Err 0.0097 LHS Mean -0.0088 Res Mean -0.0083

R Sq -0.8729 R Bar Sq -0.8918 F 2, 99 NC %RMSE 5935.52

D.W.( 1) 0.3864 D.W.( 4) 0.3951
122

DPF7074_FE = (- 0.00009 * RF7074_FE - 0.00028 * RF7074_FE.1 - 0.00048 * RF7074_FE.2 - 0.00063 * RF7074_FE.3 - 0.00064 * 

RF7074_FE.4 - 0.00046 * RF7074_FE.5) - (- 0.00009 * RF7074 - 0.00028 * RF7074.1 - 0.00048 * RF7074.2 - 0.00063 * RF7074.3 - 0.00064 * 

RF7074.4 - 0.00046 * RF7074.5)

Restricted Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 101 periods from 1982Q4 to 2007Q4

Date: 2 SEP 2009

pf7074_dpk

 = - 0.00009 * rf7074_dpk - 0.00028 * rf7074_dpk[-1]

 (0.41200) (1.18982)

 - 0.00048 * rf7074_dpk[-2] - 0.00063 * rf7074_dpk[-3]

 (3.71663) (4.89240)

 - 0.00064 * rf7074_dpk[-4] - 0.00046 * rf7074_dpk[-5]

 (2.78954) (2.06896)

Polynomial lags:

 rf7074_dpk

 from 0 to 5 degree 3 near far

Sum Sq 0.0038 Std Err 0.0059 LHS Mean -0.0043 Res Mean -0.0018

R Sq -0.1504 R Bar Sq -0.1620 F 2, 99 NC %RMSE 14566.3

D.W.( 1) 0.7462 D.W.( 4) 1.0245

DPF75O_FE = (- 0.00007 * RF75O_FE - 0.00012 * RF75O_FE.1 - 0.00015 * RF75O_FE.2 - 0.00014 * RF75O_FE.3 - 0.00012 * RF75O_FE.4 -

0.00007 * RF75O_FE.5) - (- 0.00007 * RF75O - 0.00012 * RF75O.1 - 0.00015 * RF75O.2 - 0.00014 * RF75O.3 - 0.00012 * RF75O.4 - 0.00007 

* RF75O.5)

Restricted Ordinary Least Squares

QUARTERLY data for 101 periods from 1982Q4 to 2007Q4

Date: 2 SEP 2009

pf75o_dpk

 = - 0.00007 * rf75o_dpk - 0.00012 * rf75o_dpk[-1]

 (0.83244) (1.28137)

 - 0.00015 * rf75o_dpk[-2] - 0.00014 * rf75o_dpk[-3]

 (2.41595) (2.48652)

 - 0.00012 * rf75o_dpk[-4] - 0.00007 * rf75o_dpk[-5]

 (1.27553) (0.79882)

Polynomial lags:

 rf75o_dpk

 from 0 to 5 degree 3 near far

Sum Sq 0.0008 Std Err 0.0028 LHS Mean 0.0001 Res Mean 0.0004

R Sq 0.0818 R Bar Sq 0.0725 F 2, 99 4.4079 %RMSE 43067.0

D.W.( 1) 0.7531 D.W.( 4) 1.3841
123

2.2 U.S. Earnings (USEAR)

Annual Employment Equations

NonagriculturalWage Workers, Private Household Workers

EF1617NAWPH = MAX (0.001, -0.20802 * RTP - 0.40988 * RTP.1 + 0.01015 + 61.2465 * 1/YEAR - 0.00965 * MINW/CPIW_U + 0.01561 

* NU10/NF1617 - 0.13398) * EF1617

EF1819NAWPH = MAX (0.001, -0.03363 * RTP - 0.12989 * RTP.1 - 0.00661 + 8.44701 * 1/YEAR - 0.00539 * MINW/CPIW_U + 0.00345 

* NU10/NF1819 + 0.07597) * EF1819

EF2024NAWPH = MAX (0.001, -0.18707 * MOVAVG (5, RTP) - 0.00223 + 2.12060 * 1/YEAR + 0.00820 * NU10/NF2024 + 0.14537) * 

EF2024

EF2534NAWPH = MAX (0.001, 0.01874 * RTP - 0.04167 * MOVAVG (5, RTP.1) - 0.00090 + 1.55167 * 1/YEAR + 0.01021 * 

NU10/NF2534 - 0.00170) * EF2534

EF3544NAWPH = (0.00622 * RTP - 0.06062 * MOVAVG (5, RTP.1) + 0.00008 + 0.29372 * MOVAVG (3, EF2534NAWPH.9/EF2534.9) + 

0.06187) * EF3544

EF4554NAWPH = (0.02788 * RTP - 0.10996 * MOVAVG (5, RTP.1) - 0.00349 + 0.53068 * MOVAVG (3, EF3544NAWPH.9/EF3544.9) + 

0.08883) * EF4554

EF5564NAWPH = (0.05939 * RTP - 0.10618 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) - 0.00579 + 0.66195 * MOVAVG (3, EF4554NAWPH.9/EF4554.9) + 

0.05966) * EF5564

EF65ONAWPH = (0.22642 * RTP - 0.02069 + 0.33505 * MOVAVG (3, EF5564NAWPH.9) - 0.19707)

EM1617NAWPH = MAX (0.001, -0.05284 * RTP - 0.17833 * RTP.1 - 0.00768 + 9.19738 * 1/YEAR - 0.00588 * MINW/CPIW_U + 0.16862)

* EM1617

EM1819NAWPH = MAX (0.001, -0.07122 * RTP - 0.03737 * RTP.1 - 0.00282 + 3.76796 * 1/YEAR - 0.00499 * MINW/CPIW_U + 0.08727)

* EM1819

EM2024NAWPH = MAX (0.001, -0.00450 * RTP - 0.02345 * RTP.1 - 0.00113 - 0.00057 * MINW/CPIW_U + 0.03265) * EM2024

EM2534NAWPH = MAX (0.001, -0.00490 * RTP.1 - 0.00054 - 0.00051 * MINW/CPIW_U + 0.00789) * EM2534

EM3544NAWPH = (-0.00446 * RTP.1 - 0.00041 - 0.00053 * MINW/CPIW_U + 0.00726) * EM3544

EM4554NAWPH = (-0.00039 + 0.00129) * EM4554

EM5564NAWPH = (-0.00015 + 0.00200) * EM5564

EM65ONAWPH = (-0.00679 + 0.64405 * MOVAVG (3, EM5564NAWPH.9) + 0.00231)

Nonagricultural Self-employed workers

EF1617NAS = (0.12015 * RTP.1 - 0.10551) * EF1617

Ordinary Least Squares

ANNUAL data for 5 periods from 2000 to 2004

Date: 9 NOV 2005

ef1617nas/ef1617 = 0.12015 * rtp.1 - 0.10551

 (1.96868) (1.73441)

Sum Sq 0.0000 

Std Error 0.0030 

LHS Mean 0.0142

R-Squared 0.5637 

R Bar Squared 0.4182 

F-stat 1, 3 3.8757

D.W. (1) 1.5620 

D.W. (2) 2.3626

EF1819NAS = (0.11184 * RTP.1 - 0.10241) * EF1819

Ordinary Least Squares

ANNUAL data for 5 periods from 2000 to 2004

Date: 9 NOV 2005

ef1819nas/ef1819 = 0.11184 * rtp.1 - 0.10241

 (2.99537) (2.75170)

Sum Sq 0.0000 

Std Error 0.0018 

LHS Mean 0.0090

R-Squared 0.7494 

R Bar Squared 0.6659 

F-STAT 1, 3 8.9722

D.W. (1) 3.2586 

D.W. (2) 0.9766

EF2024NAS = (0.08908 * RTP.1 - 0.07176) * EF2024
124

Ordinary Least Squares

ANNUAL data for 5 periods from 2000 to 2004

Date: 9 NOV 2005

ef2024nas/ef2024 = 0.08908 * rtp.1 - 0.07176

 (2.54605) (2.05763)

Sum Sq 0.0000 

Std Error 0.0017 

LHS Mean 0.0170

R-Squared 0.6836 

R Bar Squared 0.5782 

F-STAT 1, 3 6.4824

D.W. (1) 2.6600 

D.W. (2) 1.5247

EF2534NAS = (0.00906 * RTP.1 + 0.03539) * EF2534

Ordinary Least Squares

ANNUAL data for 5 periods from 2000 to 2004

Date: 9 NOV 2005

ef2534nas/ef2534 = 0.00906 * rtp.1 + 0.03539

 (0.34277) (1.34366)

Sum Sq 0.0000 

Std Error 0.0013 

LHS Mean 0.0444

R-Squared 0.0377 

R Bar Squared 0.2831 

F-STAT 1, 3 0.1175

D.W. (1) 3.0818 

D.W. (2) 1.1094

EF3544NAS = (-0.01869 * RTP.1 + 0.08087) * EF3544

Ordinary Least Squares

ANNUAL data for 5 periods from 2000 to 2004

Date: 9 NOV 2005

ef3544nas/ef3544 = -0.01869 * rtp.1 + 0.08087

 (0.70565) (3.06320)

Sum Sq 0.0000 

Std Error 0.0013 

LHS Mean 0.0622

R-Squared 0.1424 

R Bar Squared 0.1435 

F-STAT 1, 3 0.4979

D.W. (1) 2.2440 

D.W. (2) 2.1852

EF4554NAS = (0.07232 * RTP.1 - 0.00701) * EF4554

Ordinary Least Squares

ANNUAL data for 5 periods from 2000 to 2004

Date: 9 NOV 2005

ef4554nas/ef4554 = 0.07232 * rtp.1 - 0.00701

 (2.86756) (0.27876)

Sum Sq 0.0000 

Std Error 0.0012 

LHS Mean 0.0651

R-Squared 0.7327 

R Bar Squared 0.6436 

F-STAT 1, 3 8.2229

D.W. (1) 1.7821 

D.W. (2) 2.7029

EF5564NAS = (0.07872 * RTP.1 + 0.00466) * EF5564

Ordinary Least Squares

ANNUAL data for 5 periods from 2000 to 2004
125

Date: 9 NOV 2005

ef5564nas/ef5564 = 0.07872 * rtp.1 + 0.00466

 (1.38159) (0.08196)

Sum Sq 0.0000 

Std Error 0.0028 

LHS Mean 0.0831

R-Squared 0.3889 

R Bar Squared 0.1851 

F-STAT 1, 3 1.9088

D.W. (1) 2.6092 

D.W. (2) 2.2686

EF65ONAS = (0.10940 * EF6569 + 0.12265 * EF7074 + 0.14137 * EF75O)

Ordinary Least Squares

ANNUAL data for 5 periods from 2000 to 2004

Date: 9 NOV 2005

ef6569nas/ef6569 = 0.10940

 (37.7493)

Sum Sq 0.0002 

Std Error 0.0065 

LHS Mean 0.1094

R-Squared 0.0000 

R Bar Squared 0.0000 

F 0, 4 NC

D.W. (1) 3.0431 

D.W. (2) 1.2204

Ordinary Least Squares

ANNUAL data for 5 periods from 2000 to 2004

Date: 9 NOV 2005

ef7074nas/ef7074 = 0.12265

 (16.4939)

Sum Sq 0.0011 

Std Error 0.0166 

LHS Mean 0.1226

R-Squared 0.0000 

R Bar Squared 0.0000 

F 0, 4 NC

D.W. (1) 1.0289 

D.W. (2) 1.7188

Ordinary Least Squares

ANNUAL data for 5 periods from 2000 to 2004

Date: 9 NOV 2005

ef75onas/ef75o = 0.14137

 (17.7500)

Sum Sq 0.0013 

Std Error 0.0178 

LHS Mean 0.1414

R-Squared 0.0000 

R Bar Squared 0.0000 

F 0, 4 NC

D.W. (1) 1.6889 

D.W. (2) 1.2345

EM1617NAS = (-0.23035 * RTP.1 + 0.24985) * EM1617

Ordinary Least Squares

ANNUAL data for 5 periods from 2000 to 2004

Date: 9 NOV 2005

em1617nas/em1617 = -0.23035 * rtp.1 + 0.24985

 (5.08538) (5.53372)
126

Sum Sq 0.0000 

Std Error 0.0022 

LHS Mean 0.0203

R-Squared 0.8961 

R Bar Squared 0.8614 

F-STAT 1, 3 25.8611

D.W. (1) 2.4658 

D.W. (2) 1.6839

EM1819NAS = (-0.05782 * RTP.1 + 0.07265) * EM1819

Ordinary Least Squares

ANNUAL data for 5 periods from 2000 to 2004

Date: 9 NOV 2005

em1819nas/em1819 = -0.05782 * rtp.1 + 0.07265

 (3.43044) (4.32458)

Sum Sq 0.0000 

Std Error 0.0008 

LHS Mean 0.0150

R-Squared 0.7969 

R Bar Squared 0.7291 

F-STAT 1, 3 11.7679

D.W. (1) 3.3262 

D.W. (2) 1.0399

EM2024NAS = (-0.09206 * RTP.1 + 0.11567) * EM2024

Ordinary Least Squares

ANNUAL data for 5 periods from 2000 to 2004

Date: 9 NOV 2005

em2024nas/em2024 = -0.09206 * rtp.1 + 0.11567

 (2.44839) (3.08618)

Sum Sq 0.0000 

Std Error 0.0018 

LHS Mean 0.0239

R-Squared 0.6665 

R Bar Squared 0.5553 

F-STAT 1, 3 5.9946

D.W. (1) 2.1493 

D.W. (2) 1.7046

EM2534NAS = (-0.09661 * RTP.1 + 0.14843) * EM2534

Ordinary Least Squares

ANNUAL data for 5 periods from 2000 to 2004

Date: 9 NOV 2005

em2534nas/em2534 = -0.09661 * rtp.1 + 0.14843

 (2.81478) (4.33847)

Sum Sq 0.0000 

Std Error 0.0017 

LHS Mean 0.0522

R-Squared 0.7254 

R Bar Squared 0.6338 

F-STAT 1, 3 7.9230

D.W. (1) 1.8300 

D.W. (2) 2.9632

EM3544NAS = (0.02739 * RTP.1 + 0.05236) * EM3544

Ordinary Least Squares

ANNUAL data for 5 periods from 2000 to 2004

Date: 9 NOV 2005

em3544nas/em3544 = 0.02739 * rtp.1 + 0.05236

 (0.61129) (1.17241)

Sum Sq 0.0000 
127

Std Error 0.0022 

LHS Mean 0.0797

R-Squared 0.1108 

R Bar Squared 0.1857 

F-STAT 1, 3 0.3737

D.W. (1) 2.5508 

D.W. (2) 2.2676

EM4554NAS = (0.06217 * RTP.1 + 0.03411) * EM4554

Ordinary Least Squares

ANNUAL data for 5 periods from 2000 to 2004

Date: 9 NOV 2005

em4554nas/em4554 = 0.06217 * rtp.1 + 0.03411

 (1.91738) (1.05544)

Sum Sq 0.0000 

Std Error 0.0016 

LHS Mean 0.0961

R-Squared 0.5507 

R Bar Squared 0.4009 

F-STAT 1, 3 3.6764

D.W. (1) 2.5497 

D.W. (2) 1.5554

EM5564NAS = (-0.04776 * RTP.1 + 0.16626) * EM5564

Ordinary Least Squares

ANNUAL data for 5 periods from 2000 to 2004

Date: 9 NOV 2005

em5564nas/em5564 = -0.04776 * rtp.1 + 0.16626

 (0.60480) (2.11226)

Sum Sq 0.0000 

Std Error 0.0039 

LHS Mean 0.1187

R-Squared 0.1087 

R Bar Squared 0.1884 

F-STAT 1, 3 0.3658

D.W. (1) 2.9234 

D.W. (2) 1.9432

EM65ONAS = (0.16527 * EM6569 + 0.17798 * EM7074 + 0.19058 * EM75O)

Ordinary Least Squares

ANNUAL data for 5 periods from 2000 to 2004

Date: 9 NOV 2005

em6569nas/em6569 = 0.16527

 (53.9126)

Sum Sq 0.0002 

Std Error 0.0069 

LHS Mean 0.1653

R-Squared 0.0000 

R Bar Squared 0.0000 

F-stat 0, 4 NC

D.W. (1) 1.7716 

D.W. (2) 2.9645

Ordinary Least Squares

ANNUAL data for 5 periods from 2000 to 2004

Date: 9 NOV 2005

em7074nas/em7074 = 0.17798

 (22.9265)

Sum Sq 0.0012 

Std Error 0.0174 

LHS Mean 0.1780

R-Squared 0.0000 

R Bar Squared 0.0000 
128

F-stat 0, 4 NC

D.W. (1) 1.7116 

D.W. (2) 2.1991

Ordinary Least Squares

ANNUAL data for 5 periods from 2000 to 2004

Date: 9 NOV 2005

em75onas/em75o = 0.19058

 (20.1892)

Sum Sq 0.0018 

Std Error 0.0211 

LHS Mean 0.1906

R-Squared 0.0000 

R Bar Squared 0.0000 

F-stat 0, 4 NC

D.W. (1) 2.7330 

D.W. (2) 0.9992

Nonagricultural Unpaid Family Workers

EF1617NAU = 0.00012 * ENAS

EF1819NAU = 0.00025 * ENAS

EF2024NAU = 0.00024 * ENAS

EF2534NAU = 0.00117 * ENAS

EF3544NAU = 0.00218 * ENAS

EF4554NAU = 0.00226 * ENAS

EF5564NAU = 0.00083 * ENAS

EF65ONAU = (0.00027 + 0.00021 + 0.00008) * ENAS

EM1617NAU = 0.00028 * ENAS

EM1819NAU = 0.00033 * ENAS

EM2024NAU = 0.00050 * ENAS

EM2534NAU = 0.00044 * ENAS

EM3544NAU = 0.00043 * ENAS

EM4554NAU = 0.00052 * ENAS

EM5564NAU = 0.00037 * ENAS

EM65ONAU = (0.00023 + 0.00010 + 0.00011) * ENAS

Agricultural Wage Workers

EM1617AW = EAW * (-0.00594 - 0.09353 * RTP + 5.28754 * EM1617/E + 0.08116)

EM1819AW = EAW * (-0.00131 - 0.18120 * RTP + 3.87151 * EM1819/E + 0.16636)

EM2024AW = EAW * (-0.00664 + 0.10493 * RTP + 2.00153 * EM2024/E - 0.08191)

EM2534AW = EAW * (-0.02065 + 0.38358 * RTP - 0.98380 * EM2534/E + 0.00751)

EM3544AW = EAW * (0.00402 - 0.15663 * RTP + 1.72119 * EM3544/E + 0.05679)

EM4554AW = EAW * (0.00834 + 0.03746 * RTP + 0.46522 * EM4554/E + 0.00144)

EM5564AW = EAW * (-0.00655 + 0.03521 * RTP + 0.46852 * EM5564/E - 0.00037)

EM65OAW = EAW * (-0.00114 + 0.07640 * RTP + 3.25911 * EM65O/E - 0.10058)

EF1617AW = EAW * (-0.00055 - 0.05470 * RTP + 1.41760 * EF1617/E + 0.04979)

EF1819AW = EAW * (0.00102 - 0.07375 * RTP + 0.78394 * EF1819/E + 0.07226)

EF2024AW = EAW * (0.00112 - 0.05971 * RTP + 0.57256 * EF2024/E + 0.05907)

EF2534AW = EAW * (0.00623 + 0.08868 * RTP + 1.00897 * EF2534/E - 0.15142)

EF3544AW = EAW * (0.00687 - 0.00259 * RTP + 0.51319 * EF3544/E - 0.00937)

EF4554AW = EAW * (0.00185 + 0.08747 * RTP + 0.28022 * EF4554/E - 0.08053)

EF5564AW = EAW * (-0.00140 - 0.03001 * RTP - 0.59383 * EF5564/E + 0.07088)

EF65OAW = EAW * (0.00096 + 0.06768 * RTP + 1.04213 * EF65O/E - 0.07359)

Agricultural Self-employed Workers

EM1617AS = NM1617 * (0.00528 + 0.00404)

EM1819AS = NM1819 * (0.00309 + 0.28448 * EA / (NM16O+ NF16O) - 0.00165)

EM2024AS = NM2024 * (-0.00181 + 0.97958 * EA / (NM16O+ NF16O) - 0.01093)

EM2534AS = NM2534 * (-0.00263 + 1.23186 * EA / (NM16O+ NF16O) - 0.01021)

EM3544AS = NM3544 * (-0.00151 + 1.66765 * EA / (NM16O+ NF16O) - 0.01450)
129

EM4554AS = NM4554 * (-0.00381 + 2.86654 * EA / (NM16O+ NF16O) - 0.03175)

EM5564AS = NM5564 * (-0.00460 + 2.78817 * EA / (NM16O+ NF16O) - 0.02398)

EM65OAS = NM65O * (0.00079 + 1.76904 * EA / (NM16O+ NF16O) - 0.01437)

EF1617AS = NF1617 * (0.00181 + 0.00030)

EF1819AS = EM1819AS * (-0.02393 + 0.63672 * RTP + 0.98791 * EF1819/EM1819 - 1.43926)

EF2024AS = EM2024AS * (0.07353 - 0.40207 * RTP + 0.57572 * EF2024/EM2024 - 0.01117)

EF2534AS = EM2534AS * (0.16575 + 0.16967 * RTP + 0.55503 * EF2534/EM2534 - 0.43412)

EF3544AS = EM3544AS * (0.15848 + 0.37839 * RTP + 0.37764 * EF3544/EM3544 - 0.45362)

EF4554AS = EM4554AS * (0.21947 + 0.29497 * RTP + 0.58974 * EF4554/EM4554 - 0.51966)

EF5564AS = EM5564AS * (0.20892 + 0.36294 * RTP + 0.65320 * EF5564/EM5564 - 0.66626)

EF65OAS = EM65OAS * (0.16242 + 0.54916 * RTP + 0.06199 * EF65O/EM65O - 0.47556)

Agricultural Unpaid Family Workers

EF1617AU = 0.002

EF1819AU = 0.001

EF2024AU = 0.001

EF2534AU = 0.003

EF3544AU = 0.004

EF4554AU = 0.005

EF5564AU = 0.003

EF65OAU = 0.001

EM1617AU = 0.006

EM1819AU = 0.005

EM2024AU = 0.005

EM2534AU = 0.002

EM3544AU = 0.002

EM4554AU = 0.001

EM5564AU = 0.001

EM65OAU = 0.002

Quarterly Employment Equations

ENA = E - EA

Nonagricultural Wage Workers, Private Household Workers:

EF1617NAWPH_R = MAX (0.001, -0.20802 * MOVAVG (4, RTP.1) - 0.40988 * MOVAVG (4, RTP.5) + 0.01015 + 61.2465 * 1/YEAR -

0.00965 * MINW/CPIW_U + 0.01561 * NU10/NF1617 - 0.13398) * EF1617 + EF1617NAWPH.ADJ

EF1819NAWPH_R = MAX (0.001, -0.03363 * MOVAVG (4, RTP.1) - 0.12989 * MOVAVG (4, RTP.5) - 0.00661 + 8.44701 * 1/YEAR -

0.00539 * MINW/CPIW_U + 0.00345 * NU10/NF1819 + 0.07597) * EF1819 + EF1819NAWPH.ADJ

EF2024NAWPH_R = MAX (0.001, -0.18707 * MOVAVG (20, RTP.1) - 0.00223 + 2.12060 * 1/YEAR + 0.00820 * NU10/NF2024 + 

0.14537) * EF2024 + EF2024NAWPH.ADJ

EF2534NAWPH_R = MAX (0.001, 0.01874 * MOVAVG (4, RTP.1) - 0.04167 * MOVAVG (20, RTP.5) - 0.00090 + 1.55167 * 1/YEAR + 

0.01021 * NU10/NF2534 - 0.00170) * EF2534 + EF2534NAWPH.ADJ

EF3544NAWPH_R = (0.00622 * MOVAVG (4, RTP.1) - 0.06062 * MOVAVG (20, RTP.5) + 0.00008 + 0.29372 * MOVAVG (12, 

EF2534NAWPH.36/EF2534.36) + 0.06187) * EF3544 + EF3544NAWPH.ADJ

EF4554NAWPH_R = (0.02788 * MOVAVG (4, RTP.1) - 0.10996 * MOVAVG (20, RTP.5) - 0.00349 + 0.53068 * MOVAVG (12, 

EF3544NAWPH.36/EF3544.36) + 0.08883) * EF4554 + EF4554NAWPH.ADJ

EF5564NAWPH_R = (0.05939 * MOVAVG (4, RTP.1) - 0.10618 * MOVAVG (8, RTP.5) - 0.00579 + 0.66195 * MOVAVG (12, 

EF4554NAWPH.36/EF4554.36) + 0.05966) * EF5564 + EF5564NAWPH.ADJ

EF65ONAWPH_R = (0.22642 * MOVAVG (4, RTP.1) - 0.02069 + 0.33505 * MOVAVG (12, EF5564NAWPH.36) - 0.19707) + 

EF65ONAWPH.ADJ

EM1617NAWPH_R = MAX (0.001, -0.05284 * MOVAVG (4, RTP.1) - 0.17833 * MOVAVG (4, RTP.5) - 0.00768 + 9.19738 * 1/YEAR -

0.00588 * MINW/CPIW_U + 0.16862) * EM1617+ EM1617NAWPH.ADJ

EM1819NAWPH_R = MAX (0.001, -0.07122 * MOVAVG (4, RTP.1) - 0.03737 * MOVAVG (4, RTP.5) - 0.00282 + 3.76796 * 1/YEAR -

0.00499 * MINW/CPIW_U + 0.08727) * EM1819+ EM1819NAWPH.ADJ

EM2024NAWPH_R = MAX (0.001, -0.00450 * MOVAVG (4, RTP.1) - 0.02345 * MOVAVG (4, RTP.5) - 0.00113 - 0.00057 * 

MINW/CPIW_U + 0.03265) * EM2024 + EM2024NAWPH.ADJ

EM2534NAWPH_R = MAX (0.001, - 0.00490 * MOVAVG (4, RTP.5) - 0.00054 - 0.00051 * MINW/CPIW_U + 0.00789) * EM2534 + 

EM2534NAWPH.ADJ

EM3544NAWPH_R = (-0.00446 * MOVAVG (4, RTP.5) - 0.00041 - 0.00053 * MINW/CPIW_U + 0.00726) * EM3544 + 

EM3544NAWPH.ADJ

EM4554NAWPH_R = (-0.00039 + 0.00129) * EM4554 + EM4554NAWPH.ADJ

EM5564NAWPH_R = (-0.00015 + 0.00200) * EM5564 + EM5564NAWPH.ADJ

EM65ONAWPH_R = (-0.00679 + 0.64405 * MOVAVG (12, EM5564NAWPH.36) + 0.00231) + EM65ONAWPH.ADJ

ENAWPH_R = EF1617NAWPH_R + EF1819NAWPH_R + EF2024NAWPH_R + EF2534NAWPH_R + EF3544NAWPH_R + 

EF4554NAWPH_R + EF5564NAWPH_R + EF65ONAWPH_R + EM1617NAWPH_R + EM1819NAWPH_R + 
130

EM2024NAWPH_R + EM2534NAWPH_R + EM3544NAWPH_R + EM4554NAWPH_R 

+ EM5564NAWPH_R + EM65ONAWPH_R

ENAWPH = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN ENAWPH_R 

ELSE ENAWPH.1 * (E_FE/E_FE.1)

EM1617NAWPH = EM1617NAWPH_R * (ENAWPH/ENAWPH_R)

EM1819NAWPH = EM1819NAWPH_R * (ENAWPH/ENAWPH_R)

EM2024NAWPH = EM2024NAWPH_R * (ENAWPH/ENAWPH_R)

EM2534NAWPH = EM2534NAWPH_R * (ENAWPH/ENAWPH_R)

EM3544NAWPH = EM3544NAWPH_R * (ENAWPH/ENAWPH_R)

EM4554NAWPH = EM4554NAWPH_R * (ENAWPH/ENAWPH_R)

EM5564NAWPH = EM5564NAWPH_R * (ENAWPH/ENAWPH_R)

EM65ONAWPH = EM65ONAWPH_R * (ENAWPH/ENAWPH_R)

EF1617NAWPH = EF1617NAWPH_R * (ENAWPH/ENAWPH_R)

EF1819NAWPH = EF1819NAWPH_R * (ENAWPH/ENAWPH_R)

EF2024NAWPH = EF2024NAWPH_R * (ENAWPH/ENAWPH_R)

EF2534NAWPH = EF2534NAWPH_R * (ENAWPH/ENAWPH_R)

EF3544NAWPH = EF3544NAWPH_R * (ENAWPH/ENAWPH_R)

EF4554NAWPH = EF4554NAWPH_R * (ENAWPH/ENAWPH_R)

EF5564NAWPH = EF5564NAWPH_R * (ENAWPH/ENAWPH_R)

EF65ONAWPH = EF65ONAWPH_R * (ENAWPH/ENAWPH_R)

EFNAWPH = EF1617NAWPH + EF1819NAWPH + EF2024NAWPH + EF2534NAWPH + EF3544NAWPH + EF4554NAWPH + 

EF5564NAWPH + EF65ONAWPH

EMNAWPH = EM1617NAWPH + EM1819NAWPH + EM2024NAWPH + EM2534NAWPH + EM3544NAWPH + EM4554NAWPH + 

EM5564NAWPH + EM65ONAWPH

Nonagricultural Self-employed Workers:

EF1617NAS_R = (0.12015 * RTP.1 - 0.10551) * EF1617 + EF1617NAS.ADJ

EF1819NAS_R = (0.11184 * RTP.1 - 0.10241) * EF1819 + EF1819NAS.ADJ

EF2024NAS_R = (0.08908 * RTP.1 - 0.07176) * EF2024 + EF2024NAS.ADJ

EF2534NAS_R = (0.00906 * RTP.1 + 0.03539) * EF2534 + EF2534NAS.ADJ

EF3544NAS_R = (-0.01869 * RTP.1 + 0.08087) * EF3544 + EF3544NAS.ADJ

EF4554NAS_R = (0.07232 * RTP.1 - 0.00701) * EF4554 + EF4554NAS.ADJ

EF5564NAS_R = (0.07872 * RTP.1 + 0.00466) * EF5564 + EF5564NAS.ADJ

EF65ONAS_R = (0.10940 * EF6569 + 0.12265 * EF7074 + 0.14137 * EF75O) + EF65ONAS.ADJ

EM1617NAS_R = (-0.23035 * RTP.1 + 0.24985) * EM1617 + EM1617NAS.ADJ

EM1819NAS_R = (-0.05782 * RTP.1 + 0.07265) * EM1819 + EM1819NAS.ADJ

EM2024NAS_R = (-0.09206 * RTP.1 + 0.11567) * EM2024 + EM2024NAS.ADJ

EM2534NAS_R = (-0.09661 * RTP.1 + 0.14843) * EM2534 + EM2534NAS.ADJ

EM3544NAS_R = (0.02739 * RTP.1 + 0.05236) * EM3544 + EM3544NAS.ADJ

EM4554NAS_R = (0.06217 * RTP.1 + 0.03411) * EM4554 + EM4554NAS.ADJ

EM5564NAS_R = (-0.04776 * RTP.1 + 0.16626) * EM5564 + EM5564NAS.ADJ

EM65ONAS_R = (0.16527 * EM6569 + 0.17798 * EM7074 + 0.19058 * EM75O) + EM65ONAS.ADJ

ENAS_R = EF1617NAS_R + EF1819NAS_R + EF2024NAS_R + EF2534NAS_R + EF3544NAS_R + EF4554NAS_R + EF5564NAS_R + 

EF65ONAS_R + EM1617NAS_R + EM1819NAS_R + EM2024NAS_R + EM2534NAS_R + EM3544NAS_R +

EM4554NAS_R + EM5564NAS_R + EM65ONAS_R

ENAS = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN ENAS_R 

ELSE ENA * (ENAS.1/ENA.1)

EM1617NAS = EM1617NAS_R * (ENAS/ENAS_R)

EM1819NAS = EM1819NAS_R * (ENAS/ENAS_R)

EM2024NAS = EM2024NAS_R * (ENAS/ENAS_R)

EM2534NAS = EM2534NAS_R * (ENAS/ENAS_R)

EM3544NAS = EM3544NAS_R * (ENAS/ENAS_R)

EM4554NAS = EM4554NAS_R * (ENAS/ENAS_R)

EM5564NAS = EM5564NAS_R * (ENAS/ENAS_R)

EM65ONAS = EM65ONAS_R * (ENAS/ENAS_R)

EF1617NAS = EF1617NAS_R * (ENAS/ENAS_R)
131

EF1819NAS = EF1819NAS_R * (ENAS/ENAS_R)

EF2024NAS = EF2024NAS_R * (ENAS/ENAS_R)

EF2534NAS = EF2534NAS_R * (ENAS/ENAS_R)

EF3544NAS = EF3544NAS_R * (ENAS/ENAS_R)

EF4554NAS = EF4554NAS_R * (ENAS/ENAS_R)

EF5564NAS = EF5564NAS_R * (ENAS/ENAS_R)

EF65ONAS = EF65ONAS_R * (ENAS/ENAS_R)

EFNAS = EF1617NAS + EF1819NAS + EF2024NAS + EF2534NAS + EF3544NAS + EF4554NAS + EF5564NAS + EF65ONAS

EMNAS = EM1617NAS + EM1819NAS + EM2024NAS + EM2534NAS + EM3544NAS + EM4554NAS + EM5564NAS + 

EM65ONAS

Nonagricultural Unpaid Family Workers

EF1617NAU_R = 0.00012 * ENAS + EF1617NAU.ADJ

EF1819NAU_R = 0.00025 * ENAS + EF1819NAU.ADJ

EF2024NAU_R = 0.00024 * ENAS + EF2024NAU.ADJ

EF2534NAU_R = 0.00117 * ENAS + EF2534NAU.ADJ

EF3544NAU_R = 0.00218 * ENAS + EF3544NAU.ADJ

EF4554NAU_R = 0.00226 * ENAS + EF4554NAU.ADJ

EF5564NAU_R = 0.00083 * ENAS + EF5564NAU.ADJ

EF65ONAU_R = (0.00027 + 0.00021 + 0.00008) * ENAS + EF65ONAU.ADJ

EM1617NAU_R = 0.00028 * ENAS + EM1617NAU.ADJ

EM1819NAU_R = 0.00033 * ENAS + EM1819NAU.ADJ

EM2024NAU_R = 0.00050 * ENAS + EM2024NAU.ADJ

EM2534NAU_R = 0.00044 * ENAS + EM2534NAU.ADJ

EM3544NAU_R = 0.00043 * ENAS + EM3544NAU.ADJ

EM4554NAU_R = 0.00052 * ENAS + EM4554NAU.ADJ

EM5564NAU_R = 0.00037 * ENAS + EM5564NAU.ADJ

EM65ONAU_R = (0.00023 + 0.00010 + 0.00011) * ENAS + EM65ONAU.ADJ

ENAU_R = EF1617NAU_R + EF1819NAU_R + EF2024NAU_R + EF2534NAU_R + EF3544NAU_R + EF4554NAU_R + 

EF5564NAU_R + EF65ONAU_R + EM1617NAU_R + EM1819NAU_R + EM2024NAU_R + EM2534NAU_R + 

EM3544NAU_R + EM4554NAU_R + EM5564NAU_R + EM65ONAU_R

ENAU = ENAU_R

EM1617NAU = EM1617NAU_R * (ENAU/ENAU_R)

EM1819NAU = EM1819NAU_R * (ENAU/ENAU_R)

EM2024NAU = EM2024NAU_R * (ENAU/ENAU_R)

EM2534NAU = EM2534NAU_R * (ENAU/ENAU_R)

EM3544NAU = EM3544NAU_R * (ENAU/ENAU_R)

EM4554NAU = EM4554NAU_R * (ENAU/ENAU_R)

EM5564NAU = EM5564NAU_R * (ENAU/ENAU_R)

EM65ONAU = EM65ONAU_R * (ENAU/ENAU_R)

EF1617NAU = EF1617NAU_R * (ENAU/ENAU_R)

EF1819NAU = EF1819NAU_R * (ENAU/ENAU_R)

EF2024NAU = EF2024NAU_R * (ENAU/ENAU_R)

EF2534NAU = EF2534NAU_R * (ENAU/ENAU_R)

EF3544NAU = EF3544NAU_R * (ENAU/ENAU_R)

EF4554NAU = EF4554NAU_R * (ENAU/ENAU_R)

EF5564NAU = EF5564NAU_R * (ENAU/ENAU_R)

EF65ONAU = EF65ONAU_R * (ENAU/ENAU_R)

EFNAU = EF1617NAU + EF1819NAU + EF2024NAU + EF2534NAU + EF3544NAU + EF4554NAU + EF5564NAU + EF65ONAU

EMNAU = EM1617NAU + EM1819NAU + EM2024NAU + EM2534NAU + EM3544NAU + EM4554NAU + EM5564NAU + 

EM65ONAU

Agricultural Workers

EA = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN GDPPF09 / (1.125 * 1.138 * EXP (-0.20541 + 0.03254 * YEAR - 0.07829 + 0.37854)) 

ELSE E * EA.1/E.1

Agricultural Wage Workers

EAW = IF LONGRANGE = 0 
132

THEN EA * (0.00893 * YEAR + 0.33159 * RTP - 0.67943) 

ELSE EA * (EAW.1/EA.1)

EM1617AW_R = MAX (0, EAW * (-0.00594 - 0.09353 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) + 5.28754 * EM1617/E + 0.08116) + EM1617AW.ADJ)

EM1819AW_R = MAX (0, EAW * (-0.00131 - 0.18120 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) + 3.87151 * EM1819/E + 0.16636) + EM1819AW.ADJ)

EM2024AW_R = MAX (0, EAW * (-0.00664 + 0.10493 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) + 2.00153 * EM2024/E - 0.08191) + EM2024AW.ADJ)

EM2534AW_R = MAX (0, EAW * (-0.02065 + 0.38358 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) - 0.98380 * EM2534/E + 0.00751) + EM2534AW.ADJ)

EM3544AW_R = MAX (0, EAW * (0.00402 - 0.15663 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) + 1.72119 * EM3544/E + 0.05679) + EM3544AW.ADJ)

EM4554AW_R = MAX (0, EAW * (0.00834 + 0.03746 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) + 0.46522 * EM4554/E + 0.00144) + EM4554AW.ADJ)

EM5564AW_R = MAX (0, EAW * (-0.00655 + 0.03521 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) + 0.46852 * EM5564/E - 0.00037) + EM5564AW.ADJ)

EM65OAW_R = MAX (0, EAW * (-0.00114 + 0.07640 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) + 3.25911 * EM65O/E - 0.10058) + EM65OAW.ADJ)

EF1617AW_R = MAX (0, EAW * (-0.00055 - 0.05470 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) + 1.41760 * EF1617/E + 0.04979) + EF1617AW.ADJ)

EF1819AW_R = MAX (0, EAW * (0.00102 - 0.07375 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) + 0.78394 * EF1819/E + 0.07226) + EF1819AW.ADJ)

EF2024AW_R = MAX (0, EAW * (0.00112 - 0.05971 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) + 0.57256 * EF2024/E + 0.05907) + EF2024AW.ADJ)

EF2534AW_R = MAX (0, EAW * (0.00623 + 0.08868 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) + 1.00897 * EF2534/E - 0.15142) + EF2534AW.ADJ)

EF3544AW_R = MAX (0, EAW * (0.00687 - 0.00259 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) + 0.51319 * EF3544/E - 0.00937) + EF3544AW.ADJ)

EF4554AW_R = MAX (0, EAW * (0.00185 + 0.08747 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) + 0.28022 * EF4554/E - 0.08053) + EF4554AW.ADJ)

EF5564AW_R = MAX (0, EAW * (-0.00140 - 0.03001 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) - 0.59383 * EF5564/E + 0.07088) + EF5564AW.ADJ)

EF65OAW_R = MAX (0, EAW * (0.00096 + 0.06768 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) + 1.04213 * EF65O/E - 0.07359) + EF65OAW.ADJ)

EAW_R = EF1617AW_R + EF1819AW_R + EF2024AW_R + EF2534AW_R + EF3544AW_R + EF4554AW_R + EF5564AW_R + 

EF65OAW_R + EM1617AW_R + EM1819AW_R+ EM2024AW_R + EM2534AW_R + EM3544AW_R + 

EM4554AW_R + EM5564AW_R + EM65OAW_R

EM1617AW = EM1617AW_R * (EAW/EAW_R)

EM1819AW = EM1819AW_R * (EAW/EAW_R)

EM2024AW = EM2024AW_R * (EAW/EAW_R)

EM2534AW = EM2534AW_R * (EAW/EAW_R)

EM3544AW = EM3544AW_R * (EAW/EAW_R)

EM4554AW = EM4554AW_R * (EAW/EAW_R)

EM5564AW = EM5564AW_R * (EAW/EAW_R)

EM65OAW = EM65OAW_R * (EAW/EAW_R)

EF1617AW = EF1617AW_R * (EAW/EAW_R)

EF1819AW = EF1819AW_R * (EAW/EAW_R)

EF2024AW = EF2024AW_R * (EAW/EAW_R)

EF2534AW = EF2534AW_R * (EAW/EAW_R)

EF3544AW = EF3544AW_R * (EAW/EAW_R)

EF4554AW = EF4554AW_R * (EAW/EAW_R)

EF5564AW = EF5564AW_R * (EAW/EAW_R)

EF65OAW = EF65OAW_R * (EAW/EAW_R)

EFAW = EF1617AW+ EF1819AW+ EF2024AW+ EF2534AW+ EF3544AW+ EF4554AW+ EF5564AW+ EF65OAW

EMAW = EM1617AW+ EM1819AW+ EM2024AW+ EM2534AW+ EM3544AW+ EM4554AW+ EM5564AW+ EM65OAW

Self-employed Agricultural Workers

EAS = EA - EAU - EAW

EM1617AS_R = MAX (0, NM1617 * (0.00528 + 0.00404) + EM1617AS.ADJ)

EM1819AS_R = MAX (0, NM1819 * (0.00309 + 0.28448 * EA / (NM16O+ NF16O) - 0.00165) + EM1819AS.ADJ)

EM2024AS_R = MAX (0, NM2024 * (-0.00181 + 0.97958 * EA / (NM16O+ NF16O) - 0.01093) + EM2024AS.ADJ)

EM2534AS_R = MAX (0, NM2534 * (-0.00263 + 1.23186 * EA / (NM16O+ NF16O) - 0.01021) + EM2534AS.ADJ)

EM3544AS_R = MAX (0, NM3544 * (-0.00151 + 1.66765 * EA / (NM16O+ NF16O) - 0.01450) + EM3544AS.ADJ)

EM4554AS_R = MAX (0, NM4554 * (-0.00381 + 2.86654 * EA / (NM16O+ NF16O) - 0.03175) + EM4554AS.ADJ)

EM5564AS_R = MAX (0, NM5564 * (-0.00460 + 2.78817 * EA / (NM16O+ NF16O) - 0.02398) + EM5564AS.ADJ)

EM65OAS_R = MAX (0, NM65O * (0.00079 + 1.76904 * EA / (NM16O+ NF16O) - 0.01437) + EM65OAS.ADJ)

EF1617AS_R = MAX (0, NF1617 * (0.00181 + 0.00030) + EF1617AS.ADJ)

EF1819AS_R = MAX (0, EM1819AS.1 * (-0.02393 + 0.63672 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) + 0.98791 * EF1819/EM1819 - 4.43926) + 

EF1819AS.ADJ)

EF2024AS_R = MAX (0, EM2024AS.1 * (0.07353 - 0.40207 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) + 0.57572 * EF2024/EM2024 - 0.01117) +

EF2024AS.ADJ)

EF2534AS_R = MAX (0, EM2534AS.1 * (0.16575 + 0.16967 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) + 0.55503 * EF2534/EM2534 - 0.43412) + 

EF2534AS.ADJ)

EF3544AS_R = MAX (0, EM3544AS.1 * (0.15848 + 0.37839 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) + 0.37764 * EF3544/EM3544 - 0.45362) + 

EF3544AS.ADJ)

EF4554AS_R = MAX (0, EM4554AS.1 * (0.21947 + 0.29497 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) + 0.58974 * EF4554/EM4554 - 0.51966) + 

EF4554AS.ADJ)

EF5564AS_R = MAX (0, EM5564AS.1 * (0.20892 + 0.36294 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) + 0.65320 * EF5564/EM5564 - 0.66626) + 
133

EF5564AS.ADJ)

EF65OAS_R = MAX (0, EM65OAS.1 * (0.16242 + 0.54916 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) + 0.06199 * EF65O/EM65O- 0.47556) + 

EF65OAS.ADJ)

EAS_R = EF1617AS_R + EF1819AS_R + EF2024AS_R + EF2534AS_R + EF3544AS_R + EF4554AS_R + EF5564AS_R + 

EF65OAS_R + EM1617AS_R + EM1819AS_R+ EM2024AS_R + EM2534AS_R + EM3544AS_R + EM4554AS_R + 

EM5564AS_R + EM65OAS_R

EM1617AS = EM1617AS_R * (EAS/EAS_R)

EM1819AS = EM1819AS_R * (EAS/EAS_R)

EM2024AS = EM2024AS_R * (EAS/EAS_R)

EM2534AS = EM2534AS_R * (EAS/EAS_R)

EM3544AS = EM3544AS_R * (EAS/EAS_R)

EM4554AS = EM4554AS_R * (EAS/EAS_R)

EM5564AS = EM5564AS_R * (EAS/EAS_R)

EM65OAS = EM65OAS_R * (EAS/EAS_R)

EF1617AS = EF1617AS_R * (EAS/EAS_R)

EF1819AS = EF1819AS_R * (EAS/EAS_R)

EF2024AS = EF2024AS_R * (EAS/EAS_R)

EF2534AS = EF2534AS_R * (EAS/EAS_R)

EF3544AS = EF3544AS_R * (EAS/EAS_R)

EF4554AS = EF4554AS_R * (EAS/EAS_R)

EF5564AS = EF5564AS_R * (EAS/EAS_R)

EF65OAS = EF65OAS_R * (EAS/EAS_R)

EFAS = EF1617AS + EF1819AS + EF2024AS + EF2534AS + EF3544AS + EF4554AS + EF5564AS + EF65OAS

EMAS = EM1617AS + EM1819AS + EM2024AS + EM2534AS + EM3544AS + EM4554AS + EM5564AS + EM65OAS

Unpaid Agricultural Family Workers

EM1617AU_R = MAX (0, 0.002 + EM1617AU.ADJ)

EM1819AU_R = MAX (0, 0.001 + EM1819AU.ADJ)

EM2024AU_R = MAX (0, 0.001 + EM2024AU.ADJ)

EM2534AU_R = MAX (0, 0.003 + EM2534AU.ADJ)

EM3544AU_R = MAX (0, 0.004 + EM3544AU.ADJ)

EM4554AU_R = MAX (0, 0.005 + EM4554AU.ADJ)

EM5564AU_R = MAX (0, 0.003 + EM5564AU.ADJ)

EM65OAU_R = MAX (0, 0.001 + EM65OAU.ADJ)

EF1617AU_R = MAX (0, 0.006 + EM1617AU.ADJ)

EF1819AU_R = MAX (0, 0.005 + EF1819AU.ADJ)

EF2024AU_R = MAX (0, 0.005 + EF2024AU.ADJ)

EF2534AU_R = MAX (0, 0.002 + EF2534AU.ADJ)

EF3544AU_R = MAX (0, 0.002 + EF3544AU.ADJ)

EF4554AU_R = MAX (0, 0.001 + EF4554AU.ADJ)

EF5564AU_R = MAX (0, 0.001 + EF5564AU.ADJ)

EF65OAU_R = MAX (0, 0.002 + EF65OAU.ADJ)

EAU_R = EF1617AU_R + EF1819AU_R + EF2024AU_R + EF2534AU_R + EF3544AU_R + EF4554AU_R + EF5564AU_R + 

EF65OAU_R + EM1617AU_R + EM1819AU_R + EM2024AU_R + EM2534AU_R + EM3544AU_R + EM4554AU_R + 

EM5564AU_R + EM65OAU_R

EAU = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN EAU_R 

ELSE EAU.1/EA.1 * EA

EM1617AU = EM1617AU_R * (EAU/EAU_R)

EM1819AU = EM1819AU_R * (EAU/EAU_R)

EM2024AU = EM2024AU_R * (EAU/EAU_R)

EM2534AU = EM2534AU_R * (EAU/EAU_R)

EM3544AU = EM3544AU_R * (EAU/EAU_R)

EM4554AU = EM4554AU_R * (EAU/EAU_R)

EM5564AU = EM5564AU_R * (EAU/EAU_R)

EM65OAU = EM65OAU_R * (EAU/EAU_R)

EF1617AU = EF1617AU_R * (EAU/EAU_R)

EF1819AU = EF1819AU_R * (EAU/EAU_R)

EF2024AU = EF2024AU_R * (EAU/EAU_R)
134

EF2534AU = EF2534AU_R * (EAU/EAU_R)

EF3544AU = EF3544AU_R * (EAU/EAU_R)

EF4554AU = EF4554AU_R * (EAU/EAU_R)

EF5564AU = EF5564AU_R * (EAU/EAU_R)

EF65OAU = EF65OAU_R * (EAU/EAU_R)

EFAU = EF1617AU + EF1819AU + EF2024AU + EF2534AU + EF3544AU + EF4554AU + EF5564AU + EF65OAU

EMAU = EM1617AU + EM1819AU + EM2024AU + EM2534AU + EM3544AU + EM4554AU + EM5564AU + EM65OAU

ANNUAL "AVERAGE HOURS WORKED" EQUATIONS

Total Nonagricultural Wage Workers

Males

AHWM1617NAW = 34.4953 * RTP + 1.03247 * MINW/CPIW_U - 31.4229 * RNM1617S- 0.12369 * 1 + 12.1981

AHWM1819NAW = 32.4361 * RTP + 12.8742 * RTP.1 + 1.28624 * MINW/CPIW_U- 16.0989 * RNM1819S - 0.27834 * 1 - 8.58664

AHWM2024NAW = 20.1161 * RTP - 10.2292 * RNM2024S - 2.28628 * (PM2024NM * NM2024NM / (PM2024NM * NM2024NM + 

PM2024MS * NM2024MS + PM2024MA * NM2024MA)) + 23.2252

AHWM2534NAW = 17.0559 * RTP - 0.29076 * 1 + 0.04542 *YEAR + 22.5121

AHWM3544NAW = 18.3314 * RTP - 0.30475 * 1 + 0.04409 *YEAR + 22.3275

AHWM4554NAW = 16.0678 * RTP - 0.12289 * 1 + 0.07446 *YEAR + 21.4366

AHWM5564NAW = 10.8277 * RTP + 0.23715 * 1 + 30.8975

AHWM65ONAW = -0.28038 * 1 + 5.40682 * RTP + 25.4797

Females

AHWF1617NAW = 17.2598 * RTP + 7.31262 * RTP.1 - 24.9241 * RNF1617S + 16.9218

AHWF1819NAW = 18.7922 * RTP + 13.1066 * RTP.1 - 18.9417 * RNF1819S- 16.2182 * PF1819 + 0.81920 * 1 + 16.7826

AHWF2024NAW = -219.154 * PF2024 + 12.4226 * RTP - 0.98470 * 1 + 158.354 * (PF2024)

2 + 98.6034

AHWF2534NAW = -39.2904 * PF2534 + 39.6515 * (PF2534)

2 + 9.10839 * RTP- 0.33503 * 1 + 35.8525

AHWF3544NAW = -39.2904 * PF3544 + 39.6515 * (PF3544)

2 + 7.40115 * RTP- 0.38214 * 1 + 36.9133

AHWF4554NAW = 8.64511 * RTP - 63.8042 * PF4554 + 59.9107 * (PF4554)

2 - 0.58355 * 1 + 44.0723

AHWF5564NAW = 6.61506 * RTP - 0.28969 * 1 + 8.36882 * PF5564 + 24.8288

AHWF65ONAW = -0.43916 * 1 + 26.5228 + (8.36882/2) * (PF65O- 0.086)

Nonagricultural Self-employed Workers

AHWNAS = 24.9592 * RTP - 17.2194 * EFNAS/ENAS + 22.0120

Nonagricultural Unpaid Family Workers

AHWNAU = 25.5124 * (EF2534NAU + EF3544NAU + EF4554NAU)/ENAU + 19.2730

Agricultural Wage Workers

AHWAW = 6.58073 * RTP + 14.9130 * RTP.1 + 19.7800

Agricultural Self-employed Workers

AHWAS = 2.45830 * PGDPAF/PGDP - 3.61107 * 1 + 44.5318

Agricultural Unpaid Family Workers

AHWAU = 39.3563

QUARTERLY "AVERAGE HOURS WORKED" EQUATIONS

Total

AHW = (AHWNA * ENA + AHWA * EA) / E

Nonagricultural sector

AHWNA = (AHWNAW * (E-ENAS-ENAU-EA) + AHWNAS * ENAS + AHWNAU * ENAU) / ENA

Nonagricultural Wage Workers

AHWNAW = (AHWMNAW * (EM – EMNAS - EMNAU – EMAW - EMAS - EMAU) + AHWFNAW * (EF - EFNAS - EFNAU –

EFAW - EFAS – EFAU))/ (E – ENAS – ENAU – EA)
135

Males

AHWMNAW1 = AHWM1617NAW * (EM1617 - EM1617NAS - EM1617NAU - EM1617AW - EM1617AS - EM1617AU)

AHWMNAW2 = AHWM1819NAW * (EM1819 - EM1819NAS - EM1819NAU - EM1819AW - EM1819AS - EM1819AU)

AHWMNAW3 = AHWM2024NAW * (EM2024 - EM2024NAS - EM2024NAU - EM2024AW - EM2024AS - EM2024AU)

AHWMNAW4 = AHWM2534NAW * (EM2534 - EM2534NAS - EM2534NAU - EM2534AW - EM2534AS - EM2534AU)

AHWMNAW5 = AHWM3544NAW * (EM3544 - EM3544NAS - EM3544NAU - EM3544AW - EM3544AS - EM3544AU)

AHWMNAW6 = AHWM4554NAW * (EM4554 - EM4554NAS - EM4554NAU - EM4554AW - EM4554AS - EM4554AU)

AHWMNAW7 = AHWM5564NAW * (EM5564 - EM5564NAS - EM5564NAU - EM5564AW - EM5564AS - EM5564AU)

AHWMNAW8 = AHWM65ONAW * (EM65O - EM65ONAS - EM65ONAU - EM65OAW - EM65OAS - EM65OAU)

AHWMNAW = (AHWMNAW1 + AHWMNAW2 + AHWMNAW3 + AHWMNAW4 + AHWMNAW5 + AHWMNAW6 + 

AHWMNAW7 + AHWMNAW8) / (EM - EMNAS - EMNAU- EMAW - EMAS - EMAU)

AHWM1617NAW = 34.4953 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) + 1.03247 * MINW/CPIW_U - 31.4229 * RNM1617S - 0.12369 * 1 + 12.1981 + 

AHWM1617NAW.ADJ

AHWM1819NAW = 32.4361 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) + 12.8742 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.5) + 1.28624 * MINW/CPIW_U - 16.0989 * 

RNM1819S - 0.27834 * 1 - 8.58664 + AHWM1819NAW.ADJ

AHWM2024NAW = 20.1161 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) - 10.2292 * RNM2024S - 2.28628 * (PM2024NM * NM2024NM/ (PM2024NM * 

NM2024NM + PM2024MS * NM2024MS + PM2024MA * NM2024MA)) + 23.2252 + AHWM2024NAW.ADJ

AHWM2534NAW = MIN (45, 17.0559 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) - 0.29076 * 1 + 0.04542 *YEAR + 22.5121) + AHWM2534NAW.ADJ

AHWM3544NAW = MIN (45, 18.3314 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) - 0.30475 * 1 + 0.04409 *YEAR + 22.3275) + AHWM3544NAW.ADJ

AHWM4554NAW = MIN (45, 16.0678 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) - 0.12289 * 1 + 0.07446 *YEAR + 21.4366) + AHWM4554NAW.ADJ

AHWM5564NAW = 10.8277 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) + 0.23715 * 1 + 30.8975 + AHWM5564NAW.ADJ

AHWM65ONAW = -0.28038 * 1 + 5.40682 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) + 25.4797 + AHWM65ONAW.ADJ

Females

AHWFNAW1 = AHWF1617NAW* (EF1617 -EF1617NAS-EF1617NAU-EF1617AW-EF1617AS-EF1617AU)

AHWFNAW2 = AHWF1819NAW* (EF1819 -EF1819NAS-EF1819NAU-EF1819AW-EF1819AS-EF1819AU)

AHWFNAW3 = AHWF2024NAW* (EF2024 -EF2024NAS-EF2024NAU-EF2024AW-EF2024AS-EF2024AU)

AHWFNAW4 = AHWF2534NAW* (EF2534 -EF2534NAS-EF2534NAU-EF2534AW-EF2534AS-EF2534AU)

AHWFNAW5 = AHWF3544NAW* (EF3544 -EF3544NAS-EF3544NAU-EF3544AW-EF3544AS-EF3544AU)

AHWFNAW6 = AHWF4554NAW* (EF4554 -EF4554NAS-EF4554NAU-EF4554AW-EF4554AS-EF4554AU)

AHWFNAW7 = AHWF5564NAW* (EF5564 -EF5564NAS-EF5564NAU-EF5564AW-EF5564AS-EF5564AU)

AHWFNAW8 = AHWF65ONAW * (EF65O -EF65ONAS-EF65ONAU-EF65OAW-EF65OAS-EF65OAU)

AHWFNAW = (AHWFNAW1 + AHWFNAW2 + AHWFNAW3 + AHWFNAW4 + AHWFNAW5 + AHWFNAW6 + AHWFNAW7 

+ AHWFNAW8) / (EF – EFNAS – EFNAU – EFAW – EFAS – EFAU)

AHWF1617NAW = 17.2598 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) + 7.31262 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.5) - 24.9241 * RNF1617S + 16.9218 + 

AHWF1617NAW.ADJ

AHWF1819NAW = 18.7922 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) + 13.1066 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.5) - 18.9417 * RNF1819S - 16.2182 * PF1819 + 

0.81920 * 1 + 16.7826 + AHWF1819NAW.ADJ

AHWF2024NAW = -219.154 * PF2024 + 12.4226 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) - 0.98470 * 1 + 158.354 * (PF2024)

2 + 98.6034 + 

AHWF2024NAW.ADJ

AHWF2534NAW = -39.2904 * PF2534 + 39.6515 * (PF2534)

2 + 9.10839 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) - 0.33503 * 1 + 35.8525 + 

AHWF2534NAW.ADJ

AHWF3544NAW = -39.2904 * PF3544 + 39.6515 * (PF3544)

2 + 7.40115 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) - 0.38214 * 1 + 36.9133 + 

AHWF3544NAW.ADJ

AHWF4554NAW = 8.64511 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) - 63.8042 * PF4554 + 59.9107 * (PF4554)

2 - 0.58355 * 1 + 44.0723 + 

AHWF4554NAW.ADJ

AHWF5564NAW = 6.61506 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) - 0.28969 * 1 + 8.36882 * PF5564 + 24.8288 + AHWF5564NAW.ADJ

AHWF65ONAW = -0.43916 * 1 + 26.5228 + (8.36882/2) * (PF65O- 0.086) + AHWF65ONAW.ADJ

Nonagricultural Self-employed

AHWNAS = 24.9592 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) - 17.2194 * EFNAS/ENAS + 22.0120 + AHWNAS.ADJ

Nonagricultural Unpaid Family Workers

AHWNAU = 25.5124 * (EF2534NAU + EF3544NAU + EF4554NAU)/ ENAU + 19.2730 + AHWNAU.ADJ

Agricultural sector

AHWA = (AHWAW * EAW + AHWAS * EAS + AHWAU * EAU) / EA

Agricultural Wage Workers

AHWAW = 6.58073 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.1) + 14.9130 * MOVAVG (2, RTP.5) + 19.7800 + AHWAW.ADJ

Agricultural Self-employed

AHWAS = 2.45830 * PGDPAF/PGDP - 3.61107 * 1 + 44.5318 + AHWAS.ADJ

Agricultural Unpaid Family Workers

AHWAU = 39.3563 + AHWAU.ADJ
136

OTHER EMPLOYMENT MEASURES

Federal Civilian Government and Government Enterprises

EGFC = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN (EGFC.1 * 1.00940.25) 

ELSE (EGFC.1 * (E_FE/E_FE.1))

EGEFCPS = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN (EGEFCPS.1 * 1.00750.25) 

ELSE (EGEFCPS.1 * (E_FE/E_FE.1))

EGGEFC = EGFC + EGEFCPS

State and Local Government and Government Enterprises

EGGESL = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN EGGESL.1 * (LC_FE/LC_FE.4)0.25

ELSE EGGESL.1 * (E_FE/E_FE.1)

Military

DNEDMIL = IF (EDMIL-EDMIL.4) < 0 

THEN (EDMIL-EDMIL.4) 

ELSE 0

EP = E-EGGESL - EGGEFC – EAS - ENAS

Compensation and Output Sectors

Price Deflator for Medical Services

CPIWMS = CPIWMS.1 * (1 + ((CPIW_U/CPIW_U.4)0.25 - 1) * CPIWMSWT)

Unemployment Insurance and Workers Compensation Effective Tax Rates

TMAXUI_SL = TMAXUI_SL.1 *AWSUI.1/AWSUI.2

RELMAX_UI = TMAXUI_SL/AWSUI.1/1000

CR_UI = 0.775

TRATIO_UI = 0.96996 * RELMAX_UI-0.13744 * MOVAVG (4, RTP.1) + 0.10368 * MOVAVG (4, RTP.5) + 0.04887

TRATE_UI = 0.00143 * MOVAVG (4, RU.5) + 0.00128 * MOVAVG (4, RU.9) + 0.00057 * MOVAVG (4, RU.13) + 0.00356

RUIWS1 = CR_UI * TRATIO_UI * TRATE_UI

RUIWS2 = 0.32476 * MOVAVG (4, RUIWS1.8 * (WSP.8 -WSPRRB.8 +WSGGESL.8)) / (WSP.1 -WSPRR2.1 +WSGGESL.1)

Workers' Compensation

RWCWS = RWCWS.1 - (RWCWS.1 - 0.0144)/12

State and Local Government and Government Enterprises TAXMAXQ = IF QTR = 1 

THEN 300.* ROUND (MOVAVG (4, AWSE.5)/MOVAVG (4, AWSE.9) * 1000.* TAXMAX.1/300 +0.5)/1000 

ELSE TAXMAX.1

Wages

AWSPL = MOVAVG (8, AWSP.1)

AWSSPL = MOVAVG (8, AWSSP.1)

AWSGGESL = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN AWSGGESL.1 * AWSPL/AWSPL.1 

ELSE AWSGGESL.1 * AVG_GDP/AVG_GDP.1 * (1 + WS_TO_WSS_D/100)0.25

WSGGESL = AWSGGESL * EGGESL

Employer Contribution for Government Social Insurance

OASDISL_L = (EMPTROASI + EMPTRDI) * 0.978 * CSLA * WSGGESL

HISL_L = EMPTRHI * 1.0 * CSLHI * WSGGESL

SOC_UISL = (-0.02821 * MOVAVG (4, RTP.2) + 0.03145) * WSGGESL

RSOCSL_WC = RSOCSL_WC.1 - (RSOCSL_WC.1 - 0.176)/12

SOC_WCSL = RSOCSL_WC * RWCWS * WSGGESL

SOC_SL = (OASDISL_L + HISL_L + SOC_UISL + SOC_WCSL)

Employer Contributions for Employee Pension and Insurance funds
137

Workers' Compensation - employees and annuitants

OLI_WCSL = (1 - RSOCSL_WC) * RWCWS * WSGGESL

Pensions

OLI_RETSL = WSGGESL * (OLI_RETSL.1/WSGGESL.1)

Life Insurance - employees and annuitants

OLI_GLI_SL = 2.0 * EGGESL * ((WSGGESL/EGGESL) +2.0) * 0.075 * 26/1000

Health Insurance - employees and annuitants

OLI_GHI_SL = (OLI_GHI_SL.1 / EGGESL.1) * CPIWMS/CPIWMS.1 * EGGESL * RGR_GHI

Total

OLI_SL = (OLI_GLI_SL + OLI_GHI_SL + OLI_WCSL + OLI_RETSL)

RCWSSL = (1 + (SOC_SL + OLI_SL)/WSGGESL)

WSSGGESL = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN RCWSSL*WSGGESL 

ELSE (WSSGGESL.1/EGGESL.1) * AVG_GDP/AVG_GDP.1 * EGGESL

WSSGSL = WSSGGESL * WSSGSL.1/WSSGGESL.1

WSSGESL = WSSGGESL - WSSGSL

CFCGSL = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN WSSGSL * RCFCGSL 

ELSE CFCGSL.1 * WSSGGESL/WSSGGESL.1

GDPGSL = WSSGSL + CFCGSL

CFCGESL = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN WSSGESL * RCFCGESL 

ELSE CFCGESL.1 * WSSGGESL/WSSGGESL.1

GDPGESL = WSSGESL + CFCGESL

GDPGGESL = GDPGSL + GDPGESL

Federal Civilian General Government and Government Enterprises

Wages

General Government and Government Enterprises

Civilian pay raise

CRAZ1 = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN ((IF QTR = 1 THEN (0.82429 * (AWSP.6/AWSP.10 - 1) -0.005) ELSE 0)) 

ELSE (IF QTR = 1 THEN (AWSP.6/AWSP.10 - 1) ELSE 0)

Military pay raise

MRAZ = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN ((IF QTR = 1 THEN (0.82429 * (AWSP.6/AWSP.10 - 1) -0.005) ELSE 0)) 

ELSE (IF QTR = 1 THEN (AWSP.6/AWSP.10 - 1) ELSE 0)

AWSGGEFC = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN (AWSGGEFC.1 * (1 +1.0 *CRAZ1 +0.0015)) 

ELSE AWSGGEFC.1 * AVG_GDP/AVG_GDP.1 * (1 +WS_TO_WSS_D/100)0.25

WSGGEFC = AWSGGEFC * EGGEFC

CSRS workers

AWEFC_N = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN (AWEFC_N.1 * (1 +1.0 *CRAZ1 +0.00082)) 

ELSE AWEFC_N.1 * AVG_GDP/AVG_GDP.1 * (1 +WS_TO_WSS_D/100)0.25

WEFC_N = AWEFC_N * TEFC_N

Government Enterprises (Mostly U.S. Postal Service)

AWSGEFC = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN (AWSGEFC.1 * (1 +1.0 *CRAZ1 +0.0015)) 

ELSE AWSGEFC.1 * AVG_GDP/AVG_GDP.1 * (1 +WS_TO_WSS_D/100) 0.25

WSGEFC = AWSGEFC * EGEFCPS

General Government

WSGFC = WSGGEFC -WSGEFC

AWSGFC = WSGFC/EGFC
138

Employer Contribution for Government Social Insurance

General Government and Government Enterprises

OASDIFC_L = (EMPTROASI + EMPTRDI) * 1.04 * (WSGGEFC - WEFC_N) * ADJ_FSA_FC

HIFC_L = EMPTRHI* 1.055 * WSGGEFC * ADJ_FSA_FC

SOCF_UIFC = (-0.05934 * RTP + 0.06165) * WSGGEFC

SOCF_WC = 0.0159 * WSGGEFC

SOC_FC = (SOCF_UIFC + SOCF_WC + OASDIFC_L + HIFC_L)

Employer Contributions for Employee Pension and Insurance funds

General Government and Government Enterprises

Pensions

OLI_CSRS1 = ((0.174 * WSGEFC + 0.07 * WSGFC) / WSGGEFC) * WEFC_N

OLI_FERS1 = 0.107 * (WSGGEFC * 0.9 -WEFC_N) 

OLI_FERSFC = 0.048 * (WSGGEFC * 0.9 -WEFC_N)

OLI_RETFC = OLI_CSRS1 + OLI_FERS1 + OLI_FERSFC + OLIF_RETFCO

Life Insurance - employees and annuitants

OLI_GLI_FC = 2.0 * EGGEFC * ((WSGGEFC/EGGEFC) + 2.0) * 0.075 * 26/1000

Health Insurance - employees and annuitants

OLI_GHI_FC = (OLI_GHI_FC.1 / EGGEFC.1) * CPIWMS/CPIWMS.1 * EGGEFC * RGR_GHI

OLI_FC = (OLI_GHI_FC + OLI_GLI_FC + OLI_RETFC)

Compensation

General Government and Government Enterprises

RCWSF = (1 + (SOC_FC + OLI_FC)/WSGGEFC)

WSSGGEFC = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN RCWSF * WSGGEFC 

ELSE (WSSGGEFC.1/EGGEFC.1) * AVG_GDP/AVG_GDP.1 * EGGEFC

WSSGFC = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN RCWSF * WSGFC 

ELSE (WSSGFC.1 / (EGGEFC.1 - EGEFCPS.1)) * AVG_GDP/AVG_GDP.1 * (EGGEFC - EGEFCPS)

WSSGEFC = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN RCWSF * WSGEFC 

ELSE (WSSGEFC.1/EGEFCPS.1) * AVG_GDP/AVG_GDP.1 * EGEFCPS

Consumption of Fixed Capital

General Government and Government Enterprises

CFCGFC = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN WSSGFC * RCFCGFC 

ELSE CFCGFC.1 * WSSGGEFC / WSSGGEFC.1

CFCGEFC = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN WSSGEFC * RCFCGEFC 

ELSE CFCGEFC.1 * WSSGGEFC / WSSGGEFC.1

Gross Domestic Product

General Government and Government Enterprises

GDPGFC = WSSGFC + CFCGFC

GDPGEFC = WSSGEFC + CFCGEFC

GDPGGEFC = GDPGFC + GDPGEFC

Federal Government Military

Wages

AWSGFM = IF LONGRANGE = 0 
139

THEN (AWSGFM.1 * (1.0027 +1.0 * MRAZ)) 

ELSE AWSGFM.1 * AVG_GDP/AVG_GDP.1 * (1 + WS_TO_WSS_D/100) 0.25

WSGFM = AWSGFM * (EDMIL+ EDMIL_R)

Employer Contribution for Government Social Insurance

OASDIFM_L = (EMPTROASI + EMPTRDI) * 0.9975 * CML * WSGFM

HIFM_L = EMPTRHI* 1.0 *CML * WSGFM

SOCF_UIFM = MAX (0.001, (-0.05263 * DIFF (EDMIL + EDMIL_R) - 0.03079 * RTP + 0.03310)) * WSGFM

SOCF_MIFM = 0.30 * CPIWMS * (EDMIL + EDMIL_R)

SOC_FM = (SOCF_UIFM + SOCF_MIFM + OASDIFM_L + HIFM_L)

Employer Contributions for Employee Pension and Insurance funds

OLI_RETFM = (OLI_RETFM.1/WSGFM.1 - (OLI_RETFM.1/WSGFM.1 - 0.472)/12) * WSGFM

Compensation

RCWSM = (1 + (OLI_RETFM + SOC_FM)/WSGFM)

WSSGFM = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN RCWSM * WSGFM 

ELSE (WSSGFM.1/EDMIL.1) * AVG_GDP/AVG_GDP.1 * EDMIL

Consumption of Fixed Capital

CFCGFM = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN WSSGFM * RCFCGFM 

ELSE CFCGFM.1 * WSSGFM/WSSGFM.1

Gross Domestic Product

GDPGFM = WSSGFM + CFCGFM

GDPGF = GDPGFC + GDPGFM

GDPGGE = GDPGGEFC + GDPGGESL + GDPGFM

Total (Civilian and Military) Federal General Government and Government Enterprises

WSSGF = WSSGFC + WSSGFM

WSSGE = WSSGEFC + WSSGESL

WSSG = WSSGF + WSSGSL

GDPGE = GDPGEFC + GDPGESL

GDPG = GDPGF + GDPGSL

NIPA Farm Output and Earnings

GDPPF09 = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN EXP (- 3.52340 + 0.02055 * YEAR) * N_SSA * 1.125 * 1.138

ELSE GDPPF09.1 * GDP09/GDP09.1

PGDPAF = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN PGDPAF.1 * ((PGDP/PGDP.1)4 - 0.01) 0.25

ELSE PGDPAF.1 * ((PGDP/PGDP.1)4

) 0.25

GDPPF = GDPPF09 * PGDPAF

AYF_K = ((YF.1 /EAS.1) / (WSSPF.1/EAW.1) -5.0)*.8 + 5.0

WSSPF = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN EAW * MOVAVG (4, WSSP.2/EP.2) * (3.15749 / (YEAR- 65) - 0.43419 * RTP + 0.68725) 

ELSE (WSSPF.1/EAW.1) * AVG_GDP/AVG_GDP.1 * EAW

WSPF = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN WSSPF * (MOVAVG (12, (WSP.1/WSSP.1)) + 0.015) 

ELSE (WSPF.1 /WSSPF.1) * (WSP.1/WSSP.1) / (WSP.2/WSSP.2) * WSSPF

AWSPF = WSPF/EAW

YF = AYF_K * (WSSPF/EAW) * EAS

GDP, WSS and WS, Private Households & Nonprofit Institutions

Private Households

Compensation & Wages

WSSPH = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN (((WSSPH.1/ENAWPH.1)/MOVAVG (4, WSSP.3/EP.3) - 0.41) * 0.875 + 0.41) * MOVAVG (4, WSSP.2/EP.2) * 

ENAWPH 
140

ELSE (AVG_GDP/AVG_GDP.1) * ENAWPH * (WSSPH.1/ENAWPH.1)

WSPH = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN WSSPH / (1 +CPH* 1 * (EMPTROASI + EMPTRDI + EMPTRHI)) 

ELSE (AWSPH.1 * ENAWPH.1/WSSPH.1) * (1 + WS_TO_WSS_D/100) 0.25 * WSSPH

AWSPH = WSPH / ENAWPH

Owner Occupied Housing

OOH = OOH.1 * (KGDP09 * PGDP) / (KGDP09.1 * PGDP.1)

Gross Value Added

GDPPH = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN WSSPH + OOH 

ELSE (AVG_GDP/AVG_GDP.1) * ENAWPH * (GDPPH.1/ENAWPH.1)

Nonprofit Institutions

Health Services

EPHS_EST = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN EPHS_EST.1 + 0.275/4 

ELSE EPHS_EST.1 * (E_FE/E_FE.1)

AWSSPHS = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN AWSSPHS.1 * AWSSPL/AWSSPL.1 

ELSE AWSSPHS.1 * AVG_GDP/AVG_GDP.1

WSSPHS = AWSSPHS* EPHS_EST

Educational Services

EPES_EST = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN EPES_EST.1 + 0.075/4 

ELSE EPES_EST.1 * (E_FE/E_FE.1)

AWSSPES = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN AWSSPES.1 * AWSSPL/AWSSPL.1 

ELSE AWSSPES.1 * AVG_GDP/AVG_GDP.1

WSSPES = AWSSPES* EPES_EST

Social Services

EPSS_EST = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN EPSS_EST.1 + 0.075/4 

ELSE EPSS_EST.1 * (E_FE/E_FE.1)

AWSSPSS = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN AWSSPSS.1 * AWSSPL/AWSSPL.1 

ELSE AWSSPSS.1 * AVG_GDP/AVG_GDP.1

WSSPSS = AWSSPSS* EPSS_EST

Gross Value Added

WSSPNI = WSSPNI.1 * (WSSPHS + WSSPES + WSSPSS) / (WSSPHS.1 + WSSPES.1 + WSSPSS.1)

WSPNI = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN WSSPNI * (WSPNI.1/WSSPNI.1) * ((WSP.1/WSSP.1) / (WSP.9/WSSP.9))(1/8)

ELSE WSSPNI * (WSPNI.1/WSSPNI.1) * (1 +WS_TO_WSS_D/100) 0.25

GDPPNI = IF LONGRANGE = 0 

THEN WSSPNI / ((WSSPNI.1/GDPPNI.1 - 0.866) * 0.8 + 0.866) 

ELSE WSSPNI /0.866

Private Output and Compensation

ROASDIP_L = (EMPTROASI + EMPTRDI) * TXRP * CP

RHIP_L = EMPTRHI * 1.0 * CP

RSOC_UIP = 0.00109 * MOVAVG (4, RU.2) + 0.00045 * MOVAVG (4, RU.10) + 0.00048 * MOVAVG (4, RU.18) - 0.00331

RSOC_WCP = RWCWS * RSOCSL_WC

RSOCF_PBG = 0.00022

OLI

ROLI_WCP = RWCWS * (1 - RSOCSL_WC)

ROLI_SU = 0.0005

OLI_GLI_P = 0.0025 * EP * AWSP.1

OLI_GHI_P = (OLI_GHI_P.1 / EP.1) * CPIWMS/CPIWMS.1 * EP * RGR_GHI
141

ROLI_PPPS = MAX (ROLI_PPPS.1, 0.00031 * YEAR + 0.00866)

Employee Compensation and Non-Farm Proprietor Income (WSS and YNF)

WSSGGE = (WSSGGESL + WSSGGEFC + WSSGFM)

GDPPBNFXGE = (GDP – GDPGGE – GDPPF – GDPPH – GDPPNI)

RWSSPBNFXGE = 0.30026 * rtp.1 + 0.31936 + (0.971 * 0.621 - (0.30026 * 1.0 + 0.31936)) + rwsspbnfxge_adj

ENAW = ENA-ENAS-ENAU

ENAWPBXGE = ENAW - (ENAWPH + EGGEFC + EGGESL + WSSPNI / (WSSPHS + WSSPES + WSSPSS) * (EPHS_EST + 

EPES_EST + EPSS_EST))

ENAWSPBXGE = ENAWPBXGE + ENAS

AYNF_K = ((YNF.1/ENAS.1 / (WSSPBNFXGE.1/ENAWPBXGE.1)) - 1.65) * 0.9 + 1.65

AYF = YF/EAS

AWSSPF = WSSPF/EAW

AYNF = YNF/ENAS

AWSSPBNFXGE = WSSPBNFXGE/ENAWPBXGE

YNF = YNF.1 * (GDPPBNFXGE / GDPPBNFXGE.1) * (ENAS / (ENAS + ENAWPBXGE)) / (ENAS.1 / (ENAS.1 + 

ENAWPBXGE.1))

WSSPBNFXGE = rwsspbnfxge * (gdppbnfxge - ynf)

WSSP = WSSPBNFXGE+WSSPF+WSSPH +WSSPNI

RCWSP = WSSP / (WSSP - SOCF_RETRR - OLI_GLI_P - OLI_GHI_P) * (1 + ROASDIP_L + RHIP_L + RSOC_UIP + 

RSOC_WCP + RSOCF_PBG + ROLI_WCP + ROLI_SU+ ROLI_PPPS)

WS = IF WS_TO_WSS_DYR = 0 

THEN (WSGGESL + WSGGEFC + WSGFM + WSSP/RCWSP) 

ELSE WSS * WS.1/WSS.1 * (1 + WS_TO_WSS_D/100) 0.25

WSP = (WS - WSGGESL - WSGGEFC - WSGFM)

AWSP = WSP/EP

AWSSP = WSSP/EP

Other Variables

WSD = WS

WSDP = (WSD –WSGGESL – WSGGEFC – WSGFM)

AWSE = WS / (E + EDMIL – EAS – ENAS)

AWSUI = (WS -WSGGEFC -WSGFM) / (E – EGGEFC – EAS – ENAS)

WSS = (WSSP + WSSGGE)

OLI = OLI_GGE + OLI_P

SOC = SOC_GGE + SOC_P

OLI_GGE = OLI_FC + OLI_SL + OLI_RETFM

SOC_GGE = SOC_FC + SOC_FM + SOC_SL

SOC_UIP = RSOC_UIP * WSP

SOC_WCP = RSOC_WCP * WSP

OASDIP_L = ROASDIP_L * WSP

HIP_L = RHIP_L * WSP

SOCF_PBG = RSOCF_PBG * WSP

SOCF_RETRR = 0.20 * WSPRRB

SOC_P = SOC_UIP + SOC_WCP + OASDIP_L + HIP_L + SOCF_PBG + SOCF_RETRR

OLI_WCP = ROLI_WCP * WSP

OLI_SU = ROLI_SU * WSP

OLI_PPPS = ROLI_PPPS * WSP

OLI_P = OLI_WCP + OLI_SU + OLI_GHI_P + OLI_GLI_P + OLI_PPPS

OLI_PPS = OLI_PPPS + OLI_RETFC + OLI_RETFM + OLI_RETSL

OLI_GHI = OLI_GHI_P + OLI_GHI_FC + OLI_GHI_SL

OLI_GLI = OLI_GLI_P + OLI_GLI_FC + OLI_GLI_SL

OLI_WC = OLI_WCP + OLI_WCSL

SOCSL_WC = SOC_WCSL + SOC_WCP

SOCF_UIFED = SOCF_UIFC + SOCF_UIFM

SOCF_UIS = (SOC_UIP + SOC_UISL) * RUIWS1 / (RUIWS1 + RUIWS2)

SOCF_UIF = (SOC_UIP + SOC_UISL) - SOCF_UIS

SOCF_OASDI = OASDIP_L + OASDISL_L + OASDIFC_L + OASDIFM_L

SOCF_HI = HIP_L + HISL_L + HIFC_L + HIFM_L
142

2.3 OASDI Covered Employment and Earnings (COV)

Total At-Any-Time Employment

Ages 0 through 15, where s=sex;a=age 0,1,2,3,...15; i=calendar year)

 he_m_sy(s,a,i) = (he_m_sy(s,a,histend) / nsy_a(s,a,histend) &

 + he_m_sy(s,a,histend-1) / nsy_a(s,a,histend-1) &

 + he_m_sy(s,a,histend-2) / nsy_a(s,a,histend-2) ) / 3 &

 * nsy_a(s,a,i)

HI covered workers age groups 10-13 and 14-15, by sex and calendar year

 he_m_1013(s,i) = sum(he_m_sy(s,10:13,i))

 he_m_1415(s,i) = sum(he_m_sy(s,14:15,i)

HI covered workers age group 15u, by sex and calendar year

 he_m_15u(s,i) = sum(he_m_sy(s,0:9,i)) + he_m_1013(s,i) + he_m_1415(s,i)

OASDI covered = HI covered, by sex, single year of age, and calendar year 

 ce_m_sy(s,a,i)=he_m(s,a,i)

OASDI covered workers age groups 10-13 and 14-15, by sex and calendar year

 ce_m_1013(s,i) = sum(ce_m_sy(s,10:13,i))

 ce_m_1415(s,i) = sum(ce_m_sy(s,14:15,i)

OASDI covered workers age group 15u, by sex and calendar year

 ce_m_15u(s,i) = sum(ce_m_sy(s,0:9,i)) +ce_m_1013(s,i) + ce_m_1415(s,i)

Male Disaggregates Aged 16 and Over

Preliminary

Average Weeks Worked

AWWM1617_P = 0.35417 * TREND_TE - 0.17568 * RM1617 + 8.80229;

AWWM1819_P = 0.28021 * TREND_TE - 0.16633 * RM1819 + 15.4522;

AWWM2024_P = 0.17338 * TREND_TE - 0.32843 * RM2024 + 31.4779;

AWWM2529_P = 0.04353 * TREND_TE - 0.32898 * RM2529 + 46.8304; 

AWWM3034_P = 0.04353 * TREND_TE - 0.32898 * RM3034 + 46.8304;

AWWM3539_P = 0.03256 * TREND_TE - 0.26573 * RM3539 + 47.9512;

AWWM4044_P = 0.03256 * TREND_TE - 0.26573 * RM4044 + 47.9512; 

AWWM4549_P = 0.03923 * TREND_TE - 0.23146 * RM4549 + 46.8025; 

AWWM5054_P = 0.03923 * TREND_TE - 0.23146 * RM5054 + 46.8025; 

AWWM5559_P = 0.04481 * TREND_TE - 0.28537 * RM5559 + 45.0196;

AWWM6064_P = 0.14488 * TREND_TE + 0.01910 * RM6064 + 29.5797;

AWWM6569_P = 0.21483 * TREND_TE - 0.23366 * RM6569 + 21.1343;

AWWM70O_P = 0.09069 * TREND_TE + 0.43206 * RM70O + 28.6903;

AWWM1617_PL = 0.35417 * TREND_TE.1 - 0.17568 * RM1617.1 + 8.80229;

AWWM1819_PL = 0.28021 * TREND_TE.1 - 0.16633 * RM1819.1 + 15.4522;

AWWM2024_PL = 0.17338 * TREND_TE.1 - 0.32843 * RM2024.1 + 31.4779;

AWWM2529_PL = 0.04353 * TREND_TE.1 - 0.32898 * RM2529.1 + 46.8304; 

AWWM3034_PL = 0.04353 * TREND_TE.1 - 0.32898 * RM3034.1 + 46.8304;

AWWM3539_PL = 0.03256 * TREND_TE.1 - 0.26573 * RM3539.1 + 47.9512;

AWWM4044_PL = 0.03256 * TREND_TE.1 - 0.26573 * RM4044.1 + 47.9512; 

AWWM4549_PL = 0.03923 * TREND_TE.1 - 0.23146 * RM4549.1 + 46.8025; 

AWWM5054_PL = 0.03923 * TREND_TE.1 - 0.23146 * RM5054.1 + 46.8025; 

AWWM5559_PL = 0.04481 * TREND_TE.1 - 0.28537 * RM5559.1 + 45.0196;
143

AWWM6064_PL = 0.14488 * TREND_TE.1 + 0.01910 * RM6064.1 + 29.5797;

AWWM6569_PL = 0.21483 * TREND_TE.1 - 0.23366 * RM6569.1 + 21.1343;

AWWM70O_PL = 0.09069 * TREND_TE.1 + 0.43206 * RM70O.1 + 28.6903;

Work Experience

WEM1617_3_P = EM1617 * 52 / AWWM1617_P;

WEM1819_3_P = EM1819 * 52 / AWWM1819_P;

WEM2024_3_P = EM2024 * 52 / AWWM2024_P;

WEM2529_3_P = EM2529 * 52 / AWWM2529_P;

WEM3034_3_P = EM3034 * 52 / AWWM3034_P;

WEM3539_3_P = EM3539 * 52 / AWWM3539_P;

WEM4044_3_P = EM4044 * 52 / AWWM4044_P;

WEM4549_3_P = EM4549 * 52 / AWWM4549_P;

WEM5054_3_P = EM5054 * 52 / AWWM5054_P;

WEM5559_3_P = EM5559 * 52 / AWWM5559_P;

WEM6064_3_P = EM6064 * 52 / AWWM6064_P;

WEM6569_3_P = EM6569 * 52 / AWWM6569_P;

WEM70O_3_P = EM70O * 52 / AWWM70O_P ;

WEM1617_3_PL = EM1617.1 * 52 / AWWM1617_PL;

WEM1819_3_PL = EM1819.1 * 52 / AWWM1819_PL;

WEM2024_3_PL = EM2024.1 * 52 / AWWM2024_PL;

WEM2529_3_PL = EM2529.1 * 52 / AWWM2529_PL;

WEM3034_3_PL = EM3034.1 * 52 / AWWM3034_PL;

WEM3539_3_PL = EM3539.1 * 52 / AWWM3539_PL;

WEM4044_3_PL = EM4044.1 * 52 / AWWM4044_PL;

WEM4549_3_PL = EM4549.1 * 52 / AWWM4549_PL;

WEM5054_3_PL = EM5054.1 * 52 / AWWM5054_PL;

WEM5559_3_PL = EM5559.1 * 52 / AWWM5559_PL;

WEM6064_3_PL = EM6064.1 * 52 / AWWM6064_PL;

WEM6569_3_PL = EM6569.1 * 52 / AWWM6569_PL;

WEM70O_3_PL = EM70O.1 * 52 / AWWM70O_PL ;

Total Employed

TEM1617_P = ((WEM1617_3_P / WEM1617_3_PL) * (TEM1617.1 - NM1617M.1) + NM1617M) * MULT1_TEM1617 * MULT2_TEM1617;

TEM1819_P = ((WEM1819_3_P / WEM1819_3_PL) * (TEM1819.1 - NM1819M.1) + NM1819M) * MULT1_TEM1819 * MULT2_TEM1819;

TEM2024_P = ((WEM2024_3_P / WEM2024_3_PL) * (TEM2024.1 - NM2024M.1) + NM2024M) * MULT1_TEM2024 * MULT2_TEM2024;

TEM2529_P = ((WEM2529_3_P / WEM2529_3_PL) * (TEM2529.1 - NM2529M.1) + NM2529M) * MULT1_TEM2529 * MULT2_TEM2529;

TEM3034_P = ((WEM3034_3_P / WEM3034_3_PL) * (TEM3034.1 - NM3034M.1) + NM3034M) * MULT1_TEM3034 * MULT2_TEM3034;

TEM3539_P = ((WEM3539_3_P / WEM3539_3_PL) * (TEM3539.1 - NM3539M.1) + NM3539M) * MULT1_TEM3539 * MULT2_TEM3539;

TEM4044_P = ((WEM4044_3_P / WEM4044_3_PL) * (TEM4044.1 - NM4044M.1) + NM4044M) * MULT1_TEM4044 * MULT2_TEM4044;

TEM4549_P = ((WEM4549_3_P / WEM4549_3_PL) * (TEM4549.1 - NM4549M.1) + NM4549M) * MULT1_TEM4549 * MULT2_TEM4549;

TEM5054_P = ((WEM5054_3_P / WEM5054_3_PL) * (TEM5054.1 - NM5054M.1) + NM5054M) * MULT1_TEM5054 * MULT2_TEM5054;

TEM5559_P = ((WEM5559_3_P / WEM5559_3_PL) * (TEM5559.1 - NM5559M.1) + NM5559M) * MULT1_TEM5559 * MULT2_TEM5559;

TEM6064_P = ((WEM6064_3_P / WEM6064_3_PL) * (TEM6064.1)) * MULT1_TEM6064 * MULT2_TEM6064;

TEM6569_P = ((WEM6569_3_P / WEM6569_3_PL) * (TEM6569.1)) * MULT1_TEM6569 * MULT2_TEM6569;

TEM70O_P = ((WEM70O_3_P / WEM70O_3_PL ) * (TEM70O.1 )) * MULT1_TEM70O * MULT2_TEM70O;

WEM16O_3_P = WEM1617_3_P + WEM1819_3_P + WEM2024_3_P + WEM2529_3_P + WEM3034_3_P + WEM3539_3_P + 

WEM4044_3_P + WEM4549_3_P 

 + WEM5054_3_P + WEM5559_3_P + WEM6064_3_P + WEM6569_3_P + WEM70O_3_P; 

AWWM16O_P = EM16O * 52 / WEM16O_3_P;

TEM16O_P = TEM1617_P + TEM1819_P + TEM2024_P + TEM2529_P + TEM3034_P + TEM3539_P + TEM4044_P + TEM4549_P + 

TEM5054_P + TEM5559_P + TEM6064_P + TEM6569_P + TEM70O_P;
144

Final (Pre-TE.ADD)

Average Weeks Worked

AWWM1617 = AWWM1617_P;

AWWM1819 = AWWM1819_P;

AWWM2024 = AWWM2024_P;

AWWM2529 = AWWM2529_P; 

AWWM3034 = AWWM3034_P;

AWWM3539 = AWWM3539_P;

AWWM4044 = AWWM4044_P; 

AWWM4549 = AWWM4549_P; 

AWWM5054 = AWWM5054_P; 

AWWM5559 = AWWM5559_P;

AWWM6064 = AWWM6064_P;

AWWM6569 = AWWM6569_P;

AWWM70O = AWWM70O_P ;

Work Experience

WEM1617_3 = WEM1617_3_P;

WEM1819_3 = WEM1819_3_P;

WEM2024_3 = WEM2024_3_P;

WEM2529_3 = WEM2529_3_P;

WEM3034_3 = WEM3034_3_P;

WEM3539_3 = WEM3539_3_P;

WEM4044_3 = WEM4044_3_P;

WEM4549_3 = WEM4549_3_P;

WEM5054_3 = WEM5054_3_P;

WEM5559_3 = WEM5559_3_P;

WEM6064_3 = WEM6064_3_P;

WEM6569_3 = WEM6569_3_P;

WEM70O_3 = WEM70O_3_P ;

Total Employed

TEM1617 = TEM1617_P;

TEM1819 = TEM1819_P;

TEM2024 = TEM2024_P;

TEM2529 = TEM2529_P;

TEM3034 = TEM3034_P;

TEM3539 = TEM3539_P;

TEM4044 = TEM4044_P;

TEM4549 = TEM4549_P;

TEM5054 = TEM5054_P;

TEM5559 = TEM5559_P;

TEM6064 = TEM6064_P;

TEM6569 = TEM6569_P;

TEM70O = TEM70O_P ;

WEM16O_3 = WEM16O_3_P;

AWWM16O = AWWM16O_P ;

TEM16O = TEM16O_P ; 

Female Disaggregates Aged 16 and Over

Preliminary

Average Weeks Worked
145

AWWF1617_P = 0.44829 * TREND_TE - 0.06786 * RF1617 + 0.37331;

AWWF1819_P = 0.24262 * TREND_TE - 0.00950 * RF1819 + 17.0791;

AWWF2024_P = 0.18291 * TREND_TE - 0.06453 * RF2024 + 26.6823;

AWWF2529_P = 0.07674 * TREND_TE - 0.10131 * RF2529 + 40.0210; 

AWWF3034_P = 0.07674 * TREND_TE - 0.10131 * RF3034 + 40.0210;

AWWF3539_P = 0.05004 * TREND_TE - 0.10322 * RF3539 + 43.9974;

AWWF4044_P = 0.05004 * TREND_TE - 0.10322 * RF4044 + 43.9974; 

AWWF4549_P = 0.08209 * TREND_TE - 0.17307 * RF4549 + 41.1649; 

AWWF5054_P = 0.08209 * TREND_TE - 0.17307 * RF5054 + 41.1649; 

AWWF5559_P = 0.04868 * TREND_TE + 0.17072 * RF5559 + 41.9580;

AWWF6064_P = 0.14339 * TREND_TE + 0.01918 * RF6064 + 29.1567;

AWWF6569_P = 0.01857 * TREND_TE + 0.64199 * RF6569 + 36.1193;

AWWF70O_P = 0.20193 * TREND_TE + 0.92866 * RF70O + 14.2412;

AWWF1617_PL = 0.44829 * TREND_TE.1 - 0.06786 * RF1617.1 + 0.37331;

AWWF1819_PL = 0.24262 * TREND_TE.1 - 0.00950 * RF1819.1 + 17.0791;

AWWF2024_PL = 0.18291 * TREND_TE.1 - 0.06453 * RF2024.1 + 26.6823;

AWWF2529_PL = 0.07674 * TREND_TE.1 - 0.10131 * RF2529.1 + 40.0210; 

AWWF3034_PL = 0.07674 * TREND_TE.1 - 0.10131 * RF3034.1 + 40.0210;

AWWF3539_PL = 0.05004 * TREND_TE.1 - 0.10322 * RF3539.1 + 43.9974;

AWWF4044_PL = 0.05004 * TREND_TE.1 - 0.10322 * RF4044.1 + 43.9974; 

AWWF4549_PL = 0.08209 * TREND_TE.1 - 0.17307 * RF4549.1 + 41.1649; 

AWWF5054_PL = 0.08209 * TREND_TE.1 - 0.17307 * RF5054.1 + 41.1649; 

AWWF5559_PL = 0.04868 * TREND_TE.1 + 0.17072 * RF5559.1 + 41.9580;

AWWF6064_PL = 0.14339 * TREND_TE.1 + 0.01918 * RF6064.1 + 29.1567;

AWWF6569_PL = 0.01857 * TREND_TE.1 + 0.64199 * RF6569.1 + 36.1193;

AWWF70O_PL = 0.20193 * TREND_TE.1 + 0.92866 * RF70O.1 + 14.2412;

Work Experience

WEF1617_3_P = EF1617 * 52 / AWWF1617_P;

WEF1819_3_P = EF1819 * 52 / AWWF1819_P;

WEF2024_3_P = EF2024 * 52 / AWWF2024_P;

WEF2529_3_P = EF2529 * 52 / AWWF2529_P;

WEF3034_3_P = EF3034 * 52 / AWWF3034_P;

WEF3539_3_P = EF3539 * 52 / AWWF3539_P;

WEF4044_3_P = EF4044 * 52 / AWWF4044_P;

WEF4549_3_P = EF4549 * 52 / AWWF4549_P;

WEF5054_3_P = EF5054 * 52 / AWWF5054_P;

WEF5559_3_P = EF5559 * 52 / AWWF5559_P;

WEF6064_3_P = EF6064 * 52 / AWWF6064_P;

WEF6569_3_P = EF6569 * 52 / AWWF6569_P;

WEF70O_3_P = EF70O * 52 / AWWF70O_P ;

WEF1617_3_PL = EF1617.1 * 52 / AWWF1617_PL;

WEF1819_3_PL = EF1819.1 * 52 / AWWF1819_PL;

WEF2024_3_PL = EF2024.1 * 52 / AWWF2024_PL;

WEF2529_3_PL = EF2529.1 * 52 / AWWF2529_PL;

WEF3034_3_PL = EF3034.1 * 52 / AWWF3034_PL;

WEF3539_3_PL = EF3539.1 * 52 / AWWF3539_PL;

WEF4044_3_PL = EF4044.1 * 52 / AWWF4044_PL;

WEF4549_3_PL = EF4549.1 * 52 / AWWF4549_PL;

WEF5054_3_PL = EF5054.1 * 52 / AWWF5054_PL;

WEF5559_3_PL = EF5559.1 * 52 / AWWF5559_PL;

WEF6064_3_PL = EF6064.1 * 52 / AWWF6064_PL;

WEF6569_3_PL = EF6569.1 * 52 / AWWF6569_PL;

WEF70O_3_PL = EF70O.1 * 52 / AWWF70O_PL ;
146

Total Employed

TEF1617_P = ((WEF1617_3_P / WEF1617_3_PL) * (TEF1617.1 - NF1617M.1) + NF1617M) * MULT1_TEF1617 * MULT2_TEF1617;

TEF1819_P = ((WEF1819_3_P / WEF1819_3_PL) * (TEF1819.1 - NF1819M.1) + NF1819M) * MULT1_TEF1819 * MULT2_TEF1819;

TEF2024_P = ((WEF2024_3_P / WEF2024_3_PL) * (TEF2024.1 - NF2024M.1) + NF2024M) * MULT1_TEF2024 * MULT2_TEF2024;

TEF2529_P = ((WEF2529_3_P / WEF2529_3_PL) * (TEF2529.1 - NF2529M.1) + NF2529M) * MULT1_TEF2529 * MULT2_TEF2529;

TEF3034_P = ((WEF3034_3_P / WEF3034_3_PL) * (TEF3034.1 - NF3034M.1) + NF3034M) * MULT1_TEF3034 * MULT2_TEF3034;

TEF3539_P = ((WEF3539_3_P / WEF3539_3_PL) * (TEF3539.1 - NF3539M.1) + NF3539M) * MULT1_TEF3539 * MULT2_TEF3539;

TEF4044_P = ((WEF4044_3_P / WEF4044_3_PL) * (TEF4044.1 - NF4044M.1) + NF4044M) * MULT1_TEF4044 * MULT2_TEF4044;

TEF4549_P = ((WEF4549_3_P / WEF4549_3_PL) * (TEF4549.1 - NF4549M.1) + NF4549M) * MULT1_TEF4549 * MULT2_TEF4549;

TEF5054_P = ((WEF5054_3_P / WEF5054_3_PL) * (TEF5054.1 - NF5054M.1) + NF5054M) * MULT1_TEF5054 * MULT2_TEF5054;

TEF5559_P = ((WEF5559_3_P / WEF5559_3_PL) * (TEF5559.1 - NF5559M.1) + NF5559M) * MULT1_TEF5559 * MULT2_TEF5559;

TEF6064_P = ((WEF6064_3_P / WEF6064_3_PL) * (TEF6064.1)) * MULT1_TEF6064 * MULT2_TEF6064;

TEF6569_P = ((WEF6569_3_P / WEF6569_3_PL) * (TEF6569.1)) * MULT1_TEF6569 * MULT2_TEF6569;

TEF70O_P = ((WEF70O_3_P / WEF70O_3_PL ) * (TEF70O.1 )) * MULT1_TEF70O * MULT2_TEF70O;

WEF16O_3_P = WEF1617_3_P + WEF1819_3_P + WEF2024_3_P + WEF2529_3_P + WEF3034_3_P + WEF3539_3_P + WEF4044_3_P + 

WEF4549_3_P 

 + WEF5054_3_P + WEF5559_3_P + WEF6064_3_P + WEF6569_3_P + WEF70O_3_P; 

AWWF16O_P = EF16O * 52 / WEF16O_3_P;

TEF16O_P = TEF1617_P + TEF1819_P + TEF2024_P + TEF2529_P + TEF3034_P + TEF3539_P + TEF4044_P + TEF4549_P + TEF5054_P 

+ TEF5559_P + TEF6064_P + TEF6569_P + TEF70O_P;

Final (Pre-TE.ADD)

Average Weeks Worked

AWWF1617 = AWWF1617_P;

AWWF1819 = AWWF1819_P;

AWWF2024 = AWWF2024_P;

AWWF2529 = AWWF2529_P; 

AWWF3034 = AWWF3034_P;

AWWF3539 = AWWF3539_P;

AWWF4044 = AWWF4044_P; 

AWWF4549 = AWWF4549_P; 

AWWF5054 = AWWF5054_P; 

AWWF5559 = AWWF5559_P;

AWWF6064 = AWWF6064_P;

AWWF6569 = AWWF6569_P;

AWWF70O = AWWF70O_P ;

Work Experience

WEF1617_3 = WEF1617_3_P;

WEF1819_3 = WEF1819_3_P;

WEF2024_3 = WEF2024_3_P;

WEF2529_3 = WEF2529_3_P;

WEF3034_3 = WEF3034_3_P;

WEF3539_3 = WEF3539_3_P;

WEF4044_3 = WEF4044_3_P;

WEF4549_3 = WEF4549_3_P;

WEF5054_3 = WEF5054_3_P;

WEF5559_3 = WEF5559_3_P;

WEF6064_3 = WEF6064_3_P;

WEF6569_3 = WEF6569_3_P;

WEF70O_3 = WEF70O_3_P ;
147

Total Employed

TEF1617 = TEF1617_P;

TEF1819 = TEF1819_P;

TEF2024 = TEF2024_P;

TEF2529 = TEF2529_P;

TEF3034 = TEF3034_P;

TEF3539 = TEF3539_P;

TEF4044 = TEF4044_P;

TEF4549 = TEF4549_P;

TEF5054 = TEF5054_P;

TEF5559 = TEF5559_P;

TEF6064 = TEF6064_P;

TEF6569 = TEF6569_P;

TEF70O = TEF70O_P ;

WEF16O_3 = WEF16O_3_P;

AWWF16O = AWWF16O_P ;

TEF16O = TEF16O_P ; 

Combined, Age 16 and Over

WE16O_3_P = WEM16O_3_P + WEF16O_3_P;

AWW16O_P = E16O * 52 / WE16O_3_P;

WE16O_3 = WE16O_3_P ;

AWW16O = AWW16O_P ;

Self-Employed Only

SEOCMB = 0.039 * (TEFC_N_N + TESL_N_N + EPRRB)

SEOCMBL1 = 0.039 * (TEFC_N_N.1 + TESL_N_N.1 + EPRRB.1)

SEO = (SEO.1 * (EAS + ENAS) / (EAS.1 + ENAS.1) + (SEOCMB - SEOCMBL1)) * MULTSEO

Combination Workers

CMB_TOT = ((-0.01468 + 0.06227 * RTP.1 -0.0008) * WSWA - SEOCMB) * MULTCMB

CSW_TOT = SEO + CMB_TOT

AW_CMBTOT = 1.4953 * ACWA

W_CMBTOT = AW_CMBTOT * CMB_TOT

CMB_WRELMAX = TAXMAX/AW_CMBTOT

CMB Wage Andover Curve

CMB_WAO1 = IF (CMB_WRELMAX < 0.0543009)

THEN 1 - 0.722659 * CMB_WRELMAX0.65 - 0.461913 * CMB_WRELMAX0.8

ELSE IF (CMB_WRELMAX<0.1086018)

THEN -1.02884 * CMB_WRELMAX0.6 + 0.324761 * CMB_WRELMAX1.6 + 1.02015

ELSE IF (CMB_WRELMAX < 0.1629027)

THEN -0.906607 * CMB_WRELMAX0.7 + 0.947662

ELSE IF (CMB_WRELMAX < 0.2172037)

THEN -0.813951 * CMB_WRELMAX0.55 + 0.991722

ELSE IF (CMB_WRELMAX < 0.3258055)

THEN -0.755135 * CMB_WRELMAX0.55 + 0.964593

ELSE 0

CMB_WAO2 = IF (CMB_WRELMAX < 0.5430091)

THEN -0.649755 * CMB_WRELMAX0.6 + 0.886467

ELSE IF (CMB_WRELMAX < 0.7059119)

THEN -0.573205 * CMB_WRELMAX0.7 + 0.810122

ELSE IF (CMB_WRELMAX < 0.9231155)

THEN - 5.22264 * CMB_WRELMAX0.06 + 5.47514

ELSE IF (CMB_WRELMAX < 1.0860183)

THEN - 2.02619 * CMB_WRELMAX0.15 + 2.27963

ELSE IF (CMB_WRELMAX < 1.5204256)
148

THEN 0.605192 * EXP (-0.2 * CMB_WRELMAX) - 0.827158 * EXP (-0.8 * CMB_WRELMAX) 

+ 1.52918 * EXP (- 1.5 * CMB_WRELMAX) - 0.212269

ELSE 0

CMB_WAO3 = IF (CMB_WRELMAX < 1.8462311)

THEN 0.19139 * EXP (-0.6 * CMB_WRELMAX) + 0.764408 * EXP (- 1.8 * CMB_WRELMAX) + 0.0194903

ELSE IF (CMB_WRELMAX < 2.3077888)

THEN 0.12964 * EXP (-0.5 * CMB_WRELMAX) + 0.644861 * EXP (- 1.5 * CMB_WRELMAX) + 0.0183343

ELSE IF (CMB_WRELMAX < 2.9865502)

THEN 0.361318 * EXP (-0.8 * CMB_WRELMAX) + 0.0219491

ELSE IF (CMB_WRELMAX < 4.3440731)

THEN 0.193202 * EXP (-0.45 * CMB_WRELMAX) + 0.00425171

ELSE IF (CMB_WRELMAX<5.4300913)

THEN 0.0560412 * EXP (-0.25 * CMB_WRELMAX) +0.311286 * EXP (-0.8 * CMB_WRELMAX) +

0.00297316

ELSE 0

CMB_WAO4 = IF (CMB_WRELMAX < 13.5752283)

THEN 0.0995677 * EXP (-0.32 * CMB_WRELMAX) + 0.00355234

ELSE IF (CMB_WRELMAX < 21.7203653)

THEN 0.041159 * EXP (-0.19 * CMB_WRELMAX) + 0.00156765

ELSE IF (CMB_WRELMAX < 678.7614168)

THEN 0.265022 * CMB_WRELMAX(-1.555)

ELSE 0

CMB_WAO = IF (CMB_WRELMAX < 0.3258055) 

THEN CMB_WAO1

ELSE IF (CMB_WRELMAX < 1.5204256) 

THEN CMB_WAO2

ELSE IF (CMB_WRELMAX < 5.4300913) 

THEN CMB_WAO3

ELSE CMB_WAO4

CMB = (1 - (CMB_WAO - 0.019)) * CMB_TOT

CSW = SEO + CMB

SEOCMB_HI = 0.039 * (TEFC_N_N + TESL_N_N_HI)

SEO_HI = SEO - SEOCMB_HI

CMB_HI = CMB_TOT + SEOCMB_HI

CSW_HI = SEO_HI + CMB_HI

NIPA Wages

Private Residual Sector

WSDPB = WSDP – WSPH – WSPF – WSPRRB – TIPS_SR

TIPS_SR = (0.000508328 * RTP - 0.000481700) * GDP * 1.26393

OASDI Wages

Covered Employment and Wages – Federal Civilian Government

TEFC = (TEFC.1 / EGGEFC.1) * EGGEFC

TEFC_N = IF (CSRS.1 > 0) THEN TEFC_N.1/CSRS.1 * CSRS - TEFC_N_SW ELSE 0

TEFC_N_N = TEFC_N * 0.86

TEFC_N_O = (TEFC_N - TEFC_N_N)

TEFC_O = (TEFC - TEFC_N)

WEFC = (WEFC.1 / WSGGEFC.1) * WSGGEFC

WEFC_O = (WEFC -WEFC_N) * ADJ_FSA_FC

Covered Employment and Wages - State and Local Govt.

TESL = (TESL.1/EGGESLMAX.1) * EGGESLMAX

TESL_O = (TESL_O.1/TESL.1) * TESL

TESL_N = (TESL-TESL_O)

TESL_N_O = (TESL_N_O_HI + TESL_N_O_NHI)

TESL_N_O_HI = (TESL_N - TESL_N_O_NHI - TESL_N_N_NHI) * CER_MQGE_O

TESL_N_O_NHI = (TESL_N_O_NHI_S + TESL_N_O_NHI_E + TESL_N_O_NHI_NS)
149

TESL_N_S = TESL_N_S.1 * (NF1819 + NF2024 + NM1819 + NM2024) / (NF1819.1 + NF2024.1 + NM1819.1 + 

NM2024.1)

TESL_N_E = TESL_N_E.1 * (TESL / TESL.1)

TESL_N_O_NHI_S = TESL_N_S * (TESL_N_O_NHI_S.1/TESL_N_S.1)

TESL_N_O_NHI_E = TESL_N_E * 0.6

TESL_N_O_NHI_NS = TESL_N_O_NHI_NS.1 * ESR_NS

TESL_N_N = (TESL_N - TESL_N_O)

TESL_N_N_HI = (TESL_N_N - TESL_N_N_NHI)

TESL_N_N_NHI = (TESL_N_N_NHI_S + TESL_N_N_NHI_E + TESL_N_N_NHI_NS)

TESL_N_N_NHI_S = (TESL_N_S - TESL_N_O_NHI_S)

TESL_N_N_NHI_E = (TESL_N_E - TESL_N_O_NHI_E)

TESL_N_N_NHI_NS = TESL_N_N_NHI_NS.1 * ESR_NS

WESL = (WESL.1/WSGGESL.1) * WSGGESL

WESL_O = (WESL_O.1/WSGGESL.1) * WSGGESL

WESL_N = (WESL - WESL_O)

WESL_N_HI = (WESL_N - WESL_N_NHI)

WESL_N_NHI = (WESL_N_NHI_S + WESL_N_NHI_E + WESL_N_NHI_NS)

WESL_N_NHI_S = WESL_N_NHI_S.1 * (TESL_N_S/TESL_N_S.1) * (AWSGGESL/AWSGGESL.1)

WESL_N_NHI_E = WESL_N_NHI_E.1 * (TESL_N_E/TESL_N_E.1) * (AWSGGESL/AWSGGESL.1)

RAWR_NS = IF (AWR_NS = 0) THEN 0 ELSE AWR_NS/AWR_NS.1

WESL_N_NHI_NS = IF (ESR_NS = 0) THEN 0 ELSE WESL_N_NHI_NS.1 * (TESL_N_O_NHI_NS + TESL_N_N_NHI_NS) / 

(TESL_N_O_NHI_NS.1 + TESL_N_N_NHI_NS.1) * (AWSGGESL/AWSGGESL.1) * RAWR_NS

Self-Employed Earnings Sector

Covered SENE

CSE_TOT = (YF +YNF) / (YF.1 + YNF.1) * CSE_TOT.1

CSE_CMB_N = (CSE_TOT / (CMB_TOT + SEO)) / (CSE_TOT.1 / (CMB_TOT.1 + SEO.1)) * (CSE_CMB_N.1 / (CMB_TOT.1 -

CMB.1)) * (CMB_TOT - CMB)

CSE = CSE_TOT - CSE_CMB_N

ACSE_SEO = (CSE_TOT / (SEO + 0.416488 * CMB_TOT))

ACSE_CMB_TOT = 0.416488 * ACSE_SEO

CSE_SEO = ACSE_SEO * SEO

CSE_CMB_TOT = ACSE_CMB_TOT * CMB_TOT

CSE_CMB = CSE_CMB_TOT - CSE_CMB_N

ACSE_CMB = CSE_CMB/CMB

Present Law OASDI and HI Covered Wages and Earnings

WSGMLC = CML * WSGFM

WSGFCA = WEFC_O

CFCA = WSGFCA/WSGGEFC

CSLHI = (WESL_O+WESL_N_HI)/WSGGESL

WSGSLCA = WESL_O

WSPH_O = CPH * WSPH

WSPF_O = WSPF_O.1 * WSPF/WSPF.1

CPF = WSPF_O/WSPF

WSPRR_O = CPRR * WSPRRB

WSPC = WSPH_O + WSPF_O + WSPRR_O + TIPS_SR + WSPB_O

CP = WSPC/WSDP

WSCA = (WSPC + WSGSLCA + WSGFCA + WSGMLC)

COVERNA = (WSCA + CSE)

ACWA = WSCA/WSWA

ASE = CSE/CSW

ASEHI = CSE_TOT/CSW_HI

ACEA = COVERNA/TCEA

ACSLW = WESL_O/TESL_O * MULTACSLW

ACMW = ACMW.1 * AWSGFM/AWSGFM.1 * CML/CML.1

ACFCW = WEFC_O/TEFC_O

ACFMW = ACFMW.1 * (AIW.1/AIW.3)0.5

TEPH_N = ENAWPH * (1 -CPH)

TEP_N_N_S = TEP_N_N_S.1 * (NF1819 + NF2024 + NM1819 + NM2024) / (NF1819.1 + NF2024.1 + NM1819.1 + NM2024.1)

WSWA = (TCEA-SEO)

Present Law HI Covered Wages and Earnings

WSCAHI_ADD = WSCA * WSCAHI_ADD.1/WSCA.1 

TCEAHI = (TCEA + TEFC_N_N + TESL_N_N_HI)

WSWAHI = TCEAHI - SEO_HI
150

WSCAHI = WSCA + WEFC_N + WESL_N_HI + WSCAHI_ADD

ACWAHI = WSCAHI/WSWAHI

COVERNHI = WSCAHI + CSE_TOT

ACEAHI = COVERNHI/TCEAHI

Complete Coverage concepts

WSWC = (WSWAHI + TEPH_N + EPRRB + TEP_N_N_S + TEPO_N + TESL_N_N_NHI) + LOST_MF

ACWC = WSD/WSWC

AIW = IF AIW_GR_YR = 0 

THEN AIW.1 *ACWC/ACWC.1 * MULTAIW 

ELSE AIW.1 * (1 +AIW_GR/100)

Taxable Maximums

RAIW = AIW.2/AIWBASE

TAXMAXB1 = RAIW * TMAXBASE * 1000/300

TAXMAXB2 = IF TAXMAXB1 - ROUND (TAXMAXB1) >= 0.5 

THEN ROUND (TAXMAXB1) +1 

ELSE ROUND (TAXMAXB1)

TAXMAXB3 = IF TAXMAXB2 < TAXMAX.1 

THEN TAXMAX.1 * 1000/300 

ELSE TAXMAXB2

TAXMAX = IF BENINC.1 <= 0.001 

THEN TAXMAX.1 

ELSE 300 * TAXMAXB3/1000

Deemed Military Wage Credits

EDMILAF = EDMIL * 1.1

EDMILT = (2.00303 - 50.7517/YEAR) * EDMILAF

EDMILR = EDMILT – EDMILAF

MWC_ED_O = 1.2 * EDMILAF * 0.997

MWC_ED_HI = 1.2 * EDMILAF

AMWC_GO2 = MIN (1.2, AWSGFM * (2/52) * (1/3)) 

MWC_EDR_O = AMWC_GO2 * EDMILR * (1 - 0.017)

MWC_EDR_HI= MWC_EDR_O + ((1.2 +AMWC_GO2) * 0.5) * EDMILR * 0.017

MWC_O = MWC_ED_O + MWC_EDR_O

MWC_HI = MWC_ED_HI+ MWC_EDR_HI
151

2-4 Effective Taxable Payroll (TAXPAY)

2-4.1 Ratio of taxable employee to total covered OASDI wages (RWTEE)

if (relmax > 10.46164264d0) then

 RWTEE = -(0.19381d0 / 0.75d0) * relmax**(-0.75d0) + &

 1.000181751d0

else if (relmax > 3.24372838d0) then

 RWTEE = -(0.00896d0 / 0.15d0) * exp(-0.15d0 * relmax) - &

 (0.05161d0 / 0.40d0) * exp(-0.40d0 * relmax) - &

 (0.79023d0 / 1.25d0) * exp(-1.25d0 * relmax) + &

 0.00057d0 * relmax + 0.964197529d0

else if (relmax > 1.95516643d0) then

 RWTEE = -(0.076346d0 / 0.25d0) * exp(-0.25d0 * relmax) - &

 (1.34462d0 / 1.50d0) * exp(-1.50d0 * relmax) - &

 0.01046d0 * relmax + 1.059665027d0

else if (relmax > 1.03872350d0) then

 RWTEE = (0.17160d0 / 0.25d0) * exp(-0.25d0 * relmax) - &

 (1.27296d0 / 1.2d0) * exp(-1.2d0 * relmax) + &

 0.09125d0 * relmax + 0.30631048d0

else if (relmax > 0.46210354d0) then

 RWTEE = (0.50949d0 / 1.5d00) * relmax**1.50d0 - &

 (1.95934d0 / 0.69d0) * exp(-0.69d0 * relmax) - &

 1.15006d0 * relmax + 2.847263595d0

else

 RWTEE = relmax - &

 (0.31285d0 / 1.5d0) * relmax**1.5d0 - &

 (0.35995d0 / 2.00d0) * relmax**2d0

end if

Where

relmaxc = OASDI taxable maximum / average covered OASDI wage

RWTEE = Ratio of OASDI taxable employee to covered wages 

2-4.2Taxable employee OASDI wages (WTEE)

WTEE = RWTEE * WSC

Where

RWTEE = Ratio of OASDI taxable employee to covered wages 

WSC = OASDI total covered wages

WTEE = OASDI taxable employee wages

2-4.3 Ratio of multi-employer refund wages to total OASDI covered wages (RMER)

RMER = ( MER(-1) / WSC(-1) ) - 0.03217 * ( RWTEE – RWTEE(-1) ) - 0.00024*( RU - RU(-1) )

Where

MER(-1) = Multi-employer refund wages in prior year

RMER = Ratio of multi-employer refund wages to total OASDI covered wages

RU = Annual average civilian unemployment rate

RWTEE = Ratio of OASDI taxable employee to covered wages

WSC(-1) = OASDI total covered wages in prior year

2-4.4Multi-employer refund wages (MER)

MER = RMER * WSC

Where

MER = OASDI multi-employer refund wages

RMER = Ratio of multi-employer refund wages to total OASDI covered wages

WSC = OASDI total covered wages

2-4.5Taxable employer OASDI wages (WTER)

WTER = WTEE + MER
152

Where

MER = OASDI multi-employer refund wages

WTEE = OASDI taxable employee wages

WTER = OASDI taxable employer wages

2-4.6 Ratio of taxable to covered self-employment earnings (RSET)

Preliminary

BASECT = 47831.98

BASECW = 36831.79

BASEO = 23448.56

Self-employed only

SECSEO = CSE - SECCMB

ASESEO = SECSEO / SEO

ASEO96 = ASESEO(2011)

ASESEO = ASESEO * BASEO / ASEO2011

O = TAXMAX / ASESEO

if ( O < 0.030138750d0 ) then

 OTR = O - (8.07753d0 / 2.5d0) * O**2.5d0

else if ( O < 0.120555001d0 ) then

 OTR = -(1.11653d0 / 1.5d0) * O**1.5d0 + (1.07133d0 / 2.15d0) * O**2.15d0 - &

 (5.49830d0 / 3.3d0) * O**3.3d0 + 1.12622d0 * O - 0.000670705d0

else if ( O < 0.2411100020d0 ) then

 OTR = -(4.16459d0 / 1.3d0) * O**1.3d0 + (4.56181d0 / 1.75d0) * O**1.75d0 - &

 (3.42097d0 / 2.4d0) * O**2.4d0 + 2.24266d0 * O - 0.013377428d0

else if ( O < 0.542497505d0 ) then

 OTR = (1.50592d0 /1.25d0) * O**1.25d0 + (0.47570d0 / 1.6d0) * O**1.6d0 - &

 (2.3111d0 / 2.4d0) * dexp(-2.4d0 * O) - 1.92373d0 * O + 0.96224334d0

else if ( O < 1.175411260d0 ) then

 OTR = -(0.98661d0 / 0.85d0) * dexp(-0.85d0 * O) + (1.04020d0 / 1.55d0) * &

 dexp(-1.55d0 * O) - (1.18513d0 / 3.1d0) * dexp(-3.1d0 * O) - &

 0.06690d0 * O + 0.879238152d0

else if ( O < 1.506937513d0 ) then

 OTR = -(0.13975d0 / 0.55d0) * dexp(-0.55 * O) - (0.45736d0 / 1.75d0) * &

 dexp(-1.75d0 * O) + (0.03592d0 / 2.6d0) * dexp(-2.6d0 * O) + &

 0.02918d0 * O + 0.603323298d0

else if ( O < 1.989157517d0 ) then

 OTR = (0.11412d0 / 0.3d0) * dexp(-0.3d0 * O) - (0.61682d0 / 1.15d0) * &

 dexp(-1.15d0 * O) + (0.26454d0 / 2.5d0) * dexp(-2.5d0 * O) + &

 0.09195d0 * O + 0.229687651d0

else if ( O < 2.501516271d0 ) then

 OTR = -(0.28669d0 / 0.55d0) * dexp(-0.55d0 * O) + (1.25448d0 / 1.85d0) * &

 dexp(-1.85d0 * O) - (3.74662d0 / 2.6d0) * dexp(-2.6d0 * O) + &

 0.00414d0 * O + 0.725889276d0

else if ( O < 3.218848666d0 ) then

 OTR = -(0.09665d0 / 0.2d0) * dexp(-0.2d0 * O) - (2.54208d0 / 1.9d0) * &

 dexp(-1.9d0 * O) + (7.90355d0 / 2.75d0) * dexp(-2.75d0 * O) - &

 0.00240d0 * O + 0.916500569d0

else if ( O < 30.138750251d0 ) then

 OTR = -(0.02699d0 / 0.1d0) * dexp(-0.1d0 * O) - (0.11714d0 / 0.4d0) * &

 dexp(-0.4d0 * O) + 0.00058d0 * O + 0.926940904d0

else if ( O < 399d0 ) then

 OTR = -(0.96152d0 / 0.8d0) * O**(-0.8d0) + 1.009974913d0

else

 OTR = 1d0

end if

SETSEO=OTR*SECSEO

OASDI taxable wages of workers with both wages and self-employment earnings

AWSCMB=WSCCMB/CMBNT

AWSCMB96=AWSCMB(1996)

AWSCMB=AWSCMB*BASECW/AWSCMB96

CW=TAXMAX/AWSCMB

if ( CW < 0.019370968d0 ) then

 CWTR = CW - (1.34906d0 /1.71d0) * CW**1.71d0

else if ( CW < 0.067798388d0 ) then
153

 CWTR = (0.37771d0 / 1.45d0) * CW**1.45d0 - (1.56008d0 / 1.6d0) * CW**1.6d0 + &

 1.00003d0 * CW - 0.00001304d0

else if ( CW < 0.184024197d0 ) then

 CWTR = -(1.81225d0 / 1.8d0) * CW**1.8d0 + (1.81896d0 / 2.65d0) * CW**2.65d0 + &

 0.99117d0 * CW + 0.00007587d0

else if ( CW < 0.271193553d0 ) then

 CWTR = -(1.39762d0 / 1.3d0) * CW**1.3d0 + (0.37353d0 / 2.2d0) * CW**2.2d0 + &

 1.42720d0 * CW - 0.00529457d0

else if ( CW < 0.445532266d0 ) then

 CWTR = -(1.23848d0 / 1.2d0) * CW**1.2d0 - (0.29723d0 / 6.5d0) * CW**6.5d0 + &

 1.51516d0 * CW - 0.00103355d0

else if ( CW < 0.619870979d0 ) then

 CWTR = -(12.1962d0 / 1.2d0) * dexp(-1.2d0*CW) + (5.29477d0 / 1.55d0) * &

 dexp(-1.55d0 * CW) + 13.4878d0 * CW - 3.5869199d0

else if ( CW < 0.987919372d0 ) then

 CWTR = -(0.30024d0 / 0.35d0) * dexp(-0.35d0 * CW) - (0.59052d0 / 1.35d0) * &

 dexp(-1.35d0 * CW) - 0.11893d0 * CW + 1.308982d0

else if ( CW < 1.239741958d0 ) then

 CWTR = -(0.58675d0 / 0.4d0) * dexp(-0.4d0 * CW) - (0.73173d0 / 2.9d0) * &

 dexp(-2.9d0 * CW) - 0.18767d0 * CW + 1.65698379d0

else if ( CW < 1.801500032d0 ) then

 CWTR = (3.05611d0 / 0.25d0) * dexp(-0.25d0 * CW) - (2.98387d0 / 0.55d0) * &

 dexp(-0.55d0 * CW) + (0.30583d0 / 1.3d0) * dexp(-1.3d0 * CW) + &

 0.98343d0 * CW - 6.96526531d0

else if ( CW < 3.680483937d0 ) then

 CWTR = (-0.09559d0 / 0.3d0) * dexp(-0.3d0 * CW) - (0.67837d0 / 1.4d0) * &

 dexp(-1.4d0 * CW) + 0.00384d0 * CW + 0.82409021d0

else if ( CW < 38.741936176d0 ) then

 CWTR = -(0.03095d0 / 0.15d0) * dexp(-0.15d0 * CW) - (0.21195d0 / 0.63d0) * &

 dexp(-0.63d0 * CW) + 0.00069d0 * CW + 0.87915846d0

else if ( CW < 1d3) then

 CWTR = -(0.19828d0 / 0.43d0) * CW**(-0.43d0) + 1.00096844d0

else

 CWTR = 1d0

end if

WSTCMB=CWTR*WSCCMB

OASDI taxable earnings of workers with both wages and self-employment earnings

TECCMB=SECCMB+WSCCMB

ATECMB=TECCMB/CMBNT

ATECMB96=ATECMB(1996)

ATECMB=ATECMB*BASECT/ATECMB96

CT=TAXMAX/ATECMB

`

end if

TETCMB=CTTR*TECCMB

SETCMB=TETCMB-WSTCMB

Ratio OASDI taxable to covered self-employment earnings

RSET = (SETCMB+SETSEO)/CSE

Where

ASEO2011 = Average self-employment earnings of workers with no OASDI taxable wages in 2011

ATECMB = Average OASDI covered earnings of workers with both OASDI covered wages and self-employment earnings

ATECMB2011 = Average OASDI covered earnings of workers with both OASDI covered wages and self-employment earnings in 

2011

AWSCMB = Average OASDI covered wage of workers with both wages and self-employment earnings

AWSCMB2011 = Average OASDI covered wage of workers with both wages and self-employment earnings in 2011

ASESEO = Average self-employment earnings of workers with no OASDI taxable wages

AWSCMB = Average OASDI covered wage of workers with both wages and self-employment earnings

BASECT = Average total earnings of workers with both self-employment earnings and wages in 1% sample data for 2011 used to

produce equations

BASECW = Average OASDI covered wages of workers with both self-employment earnings and wages in 1% sample data for

2011 used to produce equations

BASEO = Average self-employment earnings of workers with no OASDI taxable wages in 1% sample data for 2011 used to

produce equations

CMBNT = Number or workers with both OASDI taxable wages and self-employment earnings

CSE = OASDI covered self-employment earnings
154

CT = Ratio OASDI taxable maximum to average earnings of workers with both self-employment earnings and OASDI

taxable wages

CW = Ratio OASDI taxable maximum to average self-employment earnings of workers with both self-employment earnings

and OASDI taxable wages

CTTR = Ratio of OASDI taxable to covered earnings for workers with both wages and self-employment earnings

CWTR = Ratio of OASDI taxable to covered wages for workers with both wages and self-employment earnings

O = Ratio OASDI taxable maximum to average self-employment earnings of workers with no OASDI taxable wages

OTR = Ratio of OASDI taxable self-employment to covered earnings for workers with no OASDI taxable wages

SECCMB = OASDI covered self-employment earnings of workers with both self-employment earnings and OASDI taxable 

wages

SECSEO = OASDI covered self-employment earnings of workers with no OASDI taxable wages

SEO = Number or workers with OASDI covered self-employment earnings and no OASDI taxable wages

SETCMB = OASDI taxable self-employment earnings of workers with both OASDI taxable wages and self-employment earnings

SETSEO = OASDI taxable self-employment earnings of workers with no OASDI taxable wages

TAXMAX = OASDI taxable maximum

TECCMB = OASDI covered earnings of workers with both wages and self-employed earnings

TETCMB = OASDI taxable earnings of workers with both wages and self-employed earnings

WSCCMB = OASDI covered wages of workers with both wages and self-employed earnings

WSTCMB = OASDI taxable wages of workers with both wages and self-employed earnings

2-4.7 OASDI taxable self-employment earnings (SET)

SET = SETR * CSE

Where

CSE = OASDI covered self-employment earnings

SET = OASDI taxable self-employment earnings

SETR = Ratio of OASDI taxable to covered self-employment earnings

2-4.8 OASDI effective taxable payroll (ETP)

ETP=WTER+SET-0.5*MER

Where

ETP = OASDI effective taxable payroll

MER = OASDI multi-employer refund wages

SET = OASDI taxable self-employment earnings

WTER = Annual OASDI taxable employer wages

2-4.9 OASDI taxable wage liability (WTL)

WTL = WTER * TRW

Where

TRW = OASDI combined employee-employer tax rate

WTL = Annual OASDI taxable wage liabilities

WTER = Annual OASDI taxable employer wages

2-4.10 OASDI taxable self-employment liability (SEL)

SEL = SET * TRSE

Where

SEL = OASDI taxable self-employment earnings liabilities

SET = OASDI taxable self-employment earnings

TRSE = OASDI self-employment tax rate

2-4.11 OASDI quarterly taxable wage liability (WTLQ)

Federal Civilian

Annual total wages (OASDI + MQGE)

BAFCW = 34198.84

AWCFC = WCFC / ECFC * BAFCW / AWCFCTOT97

T=MAX/AWCFC

IF(T.LT.0.014620379)THEN

 FCTR=T-(1.04262/1.73)*T**1.73

ELSE IF(T.LT.0.292407578)THEN
155

 FCTR=-(1.22471/1.6)*T**1.6+(.826746/1.8)*DEXP(-1.8*T)+1.8535*T-.459368449

ELSE IF(T.LT.0.760259704)THEN

 FCTR=-(.635082/2D0)*T**2+(.604884/2.9)*T**2.9-(.403213/4.6)*T**4.6+.910343*T+.002291358

ELSE IF(T.LT.1.228111829)THEN

 FCTR=-(.162181/1.7)*T**1.7+(.143632/2.7)*T**2.7-(.312012/3.4)*T**3.4+.841165*T+.011332647

ELSE IF(T.LT.1.520519407)THEN

 FCTR=-(1.34084/3.5)*T**3.5+(1.09868/5D0)*T**5-(.404253/5.8)*T**5.8+1.17397*T-.222555715

ELSE IF(T.LT.2.339260627)THEN

 FCTR=(.671304/.5)*DEXP(-.5*T)-(3.27076/1.4)*DEXP(-1.4*T)+.126626*T+.353367869

ELSE IF(T.LT.3.50889094)THEN

 FCTR=(.0571643/.95)*DEXP(-.95*T)-(3.17633/1.8)*DEXP(-1.8*T)+.000623031*T+.996284293

ELSE IF(T.LT.4.970928832)THEN

 FCTR=-(12.3148/2.25)*DEXP(-2.25*T)+.0000698013*T+.999222265

ELSE

 FCTR=-(.0285502/2D0)*T**(-2D0)+1.00007094

END IF

WTFCTOT=FCTR*WCFC

Where

AWCFC = Average covered Federal Civilian wages (OASDI plus MQGE) 

AWCFCTOT97 = Average covered Federal Civilian wages (OASDI plus MQGE) for 1997

BAFCW = Average Federal Civilian wages (OASDI plus MQGE) in 1% sample data for 1997 used to produce equations

ECFC = Covered Federal Civilian employment (OASDI plus MQGE)

FCTR = Ratio of taxable to covered Federal Civilian wages (OASDI plus MQGE)

MAX = OASDI taxable maximum

T = Ratio of the OASDI taxable maximum to average covered Federal Civilian wages (OASDI plus MQGE)

WCFC = Covered Federal Civilian wages (OASDI plus MQGE) 

WTFCTOT = Taxable Federal Civilian wages (OASDI plus MQGE)

Annual MQGE wages

BAFCW = 50147.72

AWCFC = WCFC / ECFC * BAFCW / AWCFCHO97

T = MAX / AWCFC

IF(T.LT.0.019941085)THEN

 FCTR=T-(0.0450661/1.47)*T**1.47

ELSE IF(T.LT.0.099705424)THEN

 FCTR=-(.0518044/1.9)*T**1.9-(.0368056/2.3)*T**2.3+.99479*T+.0000248091

ELSE IF(T.LT.0.358939528)THEN

 FCTR=-(.05907/1.25)*T**1.25-(.0746657/2.9)*T**2.9+1.02092*T-.00032173

ELSE IF(T.LT.0.558350377)THEN

 FCTR=-(2.4664/1.4)*T**1.4+(4.82919/2.3)*T**2.3-(3.97473/3)*T**3+1.83998*T-.026694932

LSE IF(T.LT.0.797643395)THEN

 FCTR=(.609091/2.1)*T**2.1-(1.16086/4)*T**4+.788373*T+.043208139

ELSE IF(T.LT.1.196465093)THEN

 FCTR=(2.35647/.4)*DEXP(-.4*T)-(3.87811/1.2)*DEXP(-1.2*T)-(1.1179/2.5)*DEXP(-2.5*T)+.738296*T-2.83402534

ELSE IF(T.LT.1.694992215)THEN

 FCTR=-(.422884/1.3)*DEXP(-1.3*T)-(6.90241/3D0)*DEXP(-3*T)-.0229917*T+1.068147457

ELSE IF(T.LT.2.592341034)THEN

 FCTR=(.557032/1.2)*DEXP(-1.2*T)-(5.40739/2.2)*DEXP(-2.2*T)+.0102014*T+.960037325

ELSE

 FCTR=-(32.3187/3.5)*DEXP(-3.5*T)+1.000030482

END IF

WTFCHO=FCTR*WCFC

Where

AWCFC = Average covered Federal Civilian MQGE wages

AWCFCHO97 = Average covered Federal Civilian MQGE wages for 1997

BAFCW = Average Federal Civilian MQGE wages in 1% sample data for 1997 used to produce equations

ECFC = Covered Federal Civilian MQGE employment

FCTR = Ratio of taxable to covered Federal Civilian MQGE wages

MAX = OASDI taxable maximum

T = Ratio of the OASDI taxable maximum to average covered Federal Civilian MQGE wages

WCFC = Covered Federal Civilian MQGE wages 

WTFCHO = Taxable Federal Civilian MQGE wages

Annual OASDI taxable wages
156

WTFC = WTFCTOT – WTFCHO

Where

WTFC = Annual OASDI taxable Federal Civilian wages

WTFCHO = Taxable Federal Civilian MQGE wages

WTFCTOT = Taxable Federal Civilian wages (OASDI plus MQGE)

Quarterly OASDI covered wages

CFCQD(1) = .98357 * TCFCD(I,1) + FCPD(I,1)

CFCQD(2) = .98909 * TCFCD(I,2) + FCPD(I,2)

CFCQD(3) = 1.01833 * TCFCD(I,3) + FCPD(I,3)

CFCQD(4) = 1.00814 * TCFCD(I,4) + FCPD(I,4)

QWCFCOD(J) = CFCQD(J) * WTFC

Where

CFCQD = Proportion of annual OASDI covered Federal Civilian wages paid in each quarter

FCPD = Payday variable for Federal Civilian wages based on calendar

I = Calendar year

J = Quarter

TCFCD = Proportion of annual NIPA Federal Civilian wages paid in each quarter

QWCFCOD = Quarterly OASDI covered Federal Civilian wages

WTFC = Annual OASDI taxable Federal Civilian wages

Quarterly OASDI taxable wages

IF(FCTR.LE.0.928)FCQD(2)=CFCQD(2)+.27522*(1.-FCTR)-.15127*(1.-FCTR)**2+.35146*(1.-FCTR)**3

IF(FCTR.LE.0.993)THEN

 FCQD(3)=CFCQD(3)+.28047*(1.-FCTR)-4.73021*(1.-FCTR)**2+25.3606*(1.-FCTR)**3-58.1741*(1.-FCTR)**4+45.1465*(1.-FCTR)**5

 FCQD(4)=CFCQD(4)-.75095*(1.-FCTR)+3.65109*(1.-FCTR)**2-16.9355*(1.-FCTR)**3+23.9578*(1.-FCTR)**4

END IF

First quarter is always 100 percent taxable.

QWTFC(I,1)=QWCFC(I,1)

IF(FCTR.LE.0.928)THEN

Compute taxable for 2nd-4th quarter.

 FCQ=FCQD(2)+FCQD(3)+FCQD(4)

 WTFC2=WTFC-QWTFC(I,1)

 FCQD(2:4)=FCQD(2:4)/FCQ

 QWTFC(I,2:4)=FCQD(2:4)*WTFC2

ELSE IF(FCTR.LE.0.993)THEN

 Second quarter covered is completely taxable.

 QWTFC(I,2)=QWCFC(I,2)

 QWTFC(I,3)=FCQD(3)*WTFC

 QWTFC(I,4)=WTFC-QWTFC(I,1)-QWTFC(I,2)-QWTFC(I,3)

ELSE

 Second and third quarter covered is completely taxable.

 QWTFC(I,2)=QWCFC(I,2)

 QWTFC(I,3)=QWCFC(I,3)

 QWTFC(I,4)=WTFC-QWTFC(I,1)-QWTFC(I,2)-QWTFC(I,3)

END IF

Where

CFCQD = Proportion of annual OASDI covered Federal Civilian wages paid in each quarter

FCQ = Sum of proportions of annual OASDI covered Federal Civilian wages paid in each quarter for quarters two to four

FCQD = Proportion of annual OASDI taxable Federal Civilian wages paid in each quarter

FCTR = Ratio annual OASDI taxable to covered Federal Civilian wages

I = Calendar year

TCFCD = Proportion of annual NIPA Federal Civilian wages paid in each quarter

QWCFC = Quarterly OASDI covered Federal Civilian wages

QWTFC = Quarterly OASDI taxable Federal Civilian wages

WTFC = Annual OASDI taxable Federal Civilian wages

WTFC2 = Total OASDI taxable Federal Civilian wages paid in quarters two to four

Quarterly OASDI taxable wage liabilities

WTLQFCEE(I, J) = QWTFC(I, J) * TRWEE(I)

WTLQFCER(I, J) = QWTFC(I, J) * TRWER(I)
157

WTLQFC(I, J) = WTLQFCEE(I, J) + WTLQFCER(I, J)

Where

I = Calendar year

J = Quarter

TRWEE = OASDI employee tax rate

TRWER = OASDI employer tax rate

WTLQFC = Quarterly OASDI taxable Federal Civilian combined employee-employer wage liabilities

WTLQFCEE = Quarterly OASDI taxable Federal Civilian employee wage liabilities

WTLQFCER = Quarterly OASDI taxable Federal Civilian employer wage liabilities

Military wages

Annual OASDI taxable wages

BACMW = 16439.95

ACMW = AWCML * BACMW / AWCML97

T = MAX / ACMW

IF(T.LT.0.060827432)THEN

 MTR=T-(.712875/2)*T**2

ELSE IF(T.LT.0.182482295)THEN

 MTR=(.71197/1.8)*T**1.8-(1.59752/2D0)*T**2+.97587*T+0.000542413

ELSE IF(T.LT.0.608274315)THEN

 MTR=-(1.75026/2D0)*T**2+(2.86837/3D0)*T**3-(1.90346/4D0)*T**4+1.10056*T-.006441373

ELSE IF(T.LT.1.094893767)THEN

 MTR=-(.700864/1.4)*T**1.4-(.40042/3.3)*T**3.3+(.197091/4.1)*T**4.1+1.33615*T-.056637087

ELSE IF(T.LT.1.703168082)THEN

 MTR=(21.3527/.3)*DEXP(-.3*T)-(21.1277/0.5)*DEXP(-.5*T)+(2.73027/1.1)*DEXP(-1.1*T)+4.34833*T-31.56802874

ELSE IF(T.LT.2.311442397)THEN

 MTR=-(33.3894/1.2)*T**1.2+(14.9436/1.6)*T**1.6-(2.58041/2.1)*T**2.1+21.3365*T-.872981629

ELSE IF(T.LT.3.163026438)THEN

 MTR=-(.076094/.3)*DEXP(-.3*T)-(1.59668/1.4)*DEXP(-1.4*T)-.0271355*T+1.182946986

ELSE IF(T.LT.4.257920205)THEN

 MTR=(.482918/1.5)*T**1.5-(9.21141/.9)*DEXP(-.9*T)+(25.93/1.5)*DEXP(-1.5*T)-1.14706*T+3.246003821

ELSE

 MTR=-(9.00723/1.8)*DEXP(-1.8*T)+1.000285789

END IF

WTML=MTR*WCML

Where

ACMW = Average OASDI covered military wages adjusted for level used to produce equations

AWCML = Average OASDI covered military wages

AWCML97 = Average OASDI covered military wages in 1997

BACMW = Average OASDI covered military wages in 1% sample data for 1997 used to produce equations

MAX = OASDI taxable maximum

MTR = Ratio of OASDI taxable to covered military wages

T = Ratio of the OASDI taxable maximum to average covered military wages

WCML = Annual OASDI covered military wages

WTML = Annual OASDI taxable military wages

Quarterly OASDI covered wages

CMLQD(1) = .97978*TCMLD(I,1)*MLPD(I,1)

CMLQD(2) = 1.002*TCMLD(I,2)*MLPD(I,2)

CMLQD(3) = 1.02145*TCMLD(I,3)*MLPD(I,3)

CMLQD(4) = .99689*TCMLD(I,4)*MLPD(I,4)

QWCML = CMLQD(J)*WCML

Where

CMLQD = Proportion of annual OASDI covered military wages paid in each quarter

I = Calendar year

J = Quarter

MLPD = Payday variable for military wages based on calendar

QWCML = Quarterly OASDI covered military wages

TCMLD = Proportion of annual NIPA military wages paid in each quarter

WCML = Annual OASDI covered military wages

Quarterly OASDI taxable wages
158

T=MAX/AWCML

IF(MLTR.LT.0.776)QML(1)=CMLQD(1)+.393565-.018307*T-3.44641/T+15.6381/T**2-40.0168/T**3+62.0449/T**4-

57.525/T**5+30.2498/T**6-7.8664/T**7+.674629/T**8

IF(MLTR.LT.0.952)QML(2)=CMLQD(2)+.844748-.0401062*T-7.24247/T+32.4957/T**2-83.3328/T**3+129.374/T**4-

122.526/T**5+68.2737/T**6-20.1479/T**7+2.34289/T**8

IF(MLTR.LT.0.985)QML(3)=CMLQD(3)-2.62266+.125592*T+22.5832/T-105.727/T**2+300.027/T**3-540.915/T**4+622.304/T**5-

441.658/T**6+175.722/T**7-29.8987/T**8

IF(MLTR.LT.1.)QML(4)=CMLQD(4)+2.37295-.111565*T-21.1954/T+106.049/T**2-330.637/T**3+658.869/T**4-

835.626/T**5+648.641/T**6-279.392/T**7+50.9246/T**8

IF(MLTR.LT.0.776)THEN

 QWTML(I,1:4)=QML(1:4)*WTML

ELSE IF(MLTR.LT.0.952)THEN

 QWTML(I,1)=QWCML(I,1)

 TOTWG1=WTML-QWTML(I,1)

 Q1=QML(2)+QML(3)+QML(4)

 QML(2:4)=QML(2:4)/Q1

 QWTML(I,2:4)=QML(2:4)*TOTWG1

ELSE IF(MLTR.LT.0.985)THEN

 QWTML(I,1)=QWCML(I,1)

 QWTML(I,2)=QWCML(I,2)

 TOTWG1=WTML-QWTML(I,1)-QWTML(I,2)

 Q1=QML(3)+QML(4)

 QML(2:4)=QML(2:4)/Q1

 QWTML(I,2:4)=QML(2:4)*TOTWG1

ELSE IF(MLTR.LT.1.)THEN

 QWTML(I,1)=QWCML(I,1)

 QWTML(I,2)=QWCML(I,2)

 QWTML(I,3)=QWCML(I,3)

 QWTML(I,4)=WTML-QWTML(I,1)-QWTML(I,2)-QWTML(I,3)

END IF

Where

AWCML = Average OASDI covered military wages

CMLQD = Proportion of annual OASDI covered military wages paid in each quarter

MLTR = Ratio of OASDI taxable to covered military wages

MAX = OASDI taxable maximum

I = Calendar year

Q1 = Sum of proportions of annual OASDI taxable military wages paid in each quarter for last three or two quarters in year

QML = Proportion of annual OASDI taxable military wages paid in each quarter

QWCML = Quarterly OASDI covered military wages

QWTML = Quarterly OASDI taxable military wages

T = Ratio of the OASDI taxable maximum to average covered military wages

TOTWG1 = Annual OASDI taxable military wages for all quarters except first or first and second

WTML = Annual OASDI taxable military wages

Quarterly OASDI taxable wage liabilities

WTLQMLEE(I, J) = QWTML(I, J) * TRWEE(I)

WTLQMLER(I, J) = QWTML(I, J) * TRWER(I)

WTLQML(I, J) = WTLQMLEE(I, J) + WTLQMLER(I, J)

Where

I = Calendar year

J = Quarter

TRWEE = OASDI employee tax rate

TRWER = OASDI employer tax rate

WTLQML = Quarterly OASDI taxable military combined employee-employer wage liabilities

WTLQMLEE = Quarterly OASDI taxable military employee wage liabilities

WTLQMLER = Quarterly OASDI taxable military employer wage liabilities

Federal

WCF = WCFC + WCML

QWCF = QWCFC + QWCML

WTF = WTFC + WTML

QWTF = QWTFC + QWTML

WTLQFEE(I,J) = QWTF(I,J) * TRWEE(I)

WTLQFER(I,J) = QWTF(I,J) * TRWER(I)

WTLQF(I,J) = WTLQFEE(I,J) + WTLQFER(I,J)
159

Where

I = Calendar year

J = Quarter

QWCF = Quarterly OASDI covered Federal wages

QWCF C = Quarterly OASDI covered Federal Civilian wages

QWCML = Quarterly OASDI covered military wages

QWTF = Quarterly OASDI taxable Federal wages

QWTFC = Quarterly OASDI taxable Federal Civilian wages

QWTML = Quarterly OASDI taxable military wages

WCF = Annual OASDI covered Federal wages

WCFC = Annual OASDI covered Federal Civilian wages

WCML = Annual OASDI covered military wages

WTF = Annual OASDI taxable Federal wages

WTFC = Annual OASDI taxable Federal Civilian wages

WTLQF = Quarterly OASDI taxable Federal combined employee-employer wage liabilities

WTLQFEE = Quarterly OASDI taxable Federal employee wage liabilities

WTLQFER = Quarterly OASDI taxable Federal employer wage liabilities

WTML = Annual OASDI taxable military wages

State and Local wages

Annual OASDI taxable wages

BACW = 21583.61

AWCSL = WCSL / ESLC * BACW / AWCSLOD97

S = MAX / ASLC

IF(S.LT.0.02316573)THEN

 SLTR=S-(1.1803/1.71)*S**1.71

ELSE IF(S.LT.0.463314609)THEN

 SLTR=-(1.54738/1.6)*S**1.6-(.421147/2.5)*S**2.5+(3.34881/.5)*DEXP(-.5*S)+4.39012*S-6.697774474

ELSE IF(S.LT.0.833966296)THEN

 SLTR=-(.756943/1.8)*S**1.8+(.485982/2.3)*S**2.3-(.175681/3.2)*S**3.2+.88749*S+.004652169

ELSE IF(S.LT.1.945921357)THEN

 SLTR=(3.4167/.3)*DEXP(-.3*S)-(7.26467/.9)*DEXP(-.9*S)+(4.57049/1.5)*DEXP(-1.5*S)+1.0378*S-6.245057503

ELSE IF(S.LT.3.243202261)THEN

 SLTR=-(2.40293/.2)*DEXP(-.2*S)+(6.44952/.4)*DEXP(-.4*S)-(5.64852/.6)*DEXP(-.6*S)-.278204*S+5.099074279

ELSE IF(S.LT.5.559775305)THEN

 SLTR=-(.0434955/.6)*DEXP(-.6*S)-(4.00403/1.7)*DEXP(-1.7*S)+.00006219*S+.997065459

ELSE IF(S.LT.18.53258435)THEN

 SLTR=-(.0272758/.5)*DEXP(-.5*S)+.0000671826*S+.997657785

 ELSE

 SLTR=-(.00861948/.7)*S**(-.7)+1.000492941

END IF

WTSL=SLTR*WCSL

Where

AWCSL = Average OASDI covered State and Local wages adjusted for average wage used to produce equations

AWCSLOD97 = Average OASDI covered State and Local wages for 1997

BACW = Average OASDI covered State and Local wages in 1% sample data for 1997 used to produce equations

ESLC = OASDI covered State and Local employment

MAX = OASDI taxable maximum

S = Ratio of the OASDI taxable maximum to average covered State and Local wages

SLTR = Ratio of OASDI taxable to covered State and Local wages

WCSL = OASDI covered State and Local wages

WTSL = OASDI taxable State and Local wages

Quarterly OASDI covered wages

CSLQD(1)=1.0131455*TCSLD(I,1)+SLPD(I,1)

CSLQD(2)=1.0431906*TCSLD(I,2)+SLPD(I,2)

CSLQD(3)=.9060524*TCSLD(I,3)+SLPD(I,3)

CSLQD(4)=1.0365866*TCSLD(I,4)+SLPD(I,4)

QWCSL=CSLQD(1:4)*WCSL

Where

CSLQD = Proportion of annual OASDI covered State and Local wages paid in each quarter

I = Calendar year

QWCSL = Quarterly OASDI covered State and Local wages

SLPD = Payday variable for State and Local wages based on calendar

TCSLD = Proportion of annual NIPA State and Local wages paid in each quarter
160

WCSL = Annual OASDI covered State and Local wages

Quarterly OASDI taxable wages

QSL(1)=(CSLQD(1)-.24087*(1.-1./SLTR))

QSL(2)=(CSLQD(2)-1.0492*(1.-1./SLTR)+.51259*(1.-1./SLTR**2)-.07643*(1.-1./SLTR**3))

QSL(3)=(CSLQD(3)-5.99032*(1.-SLTR**2)+13.238*(1.-SLTR**3)-11.3291*(1.-SLTR**4)+3.52237*(1.-SLTR**5))

QSL(4)=(CSLQD(4)+8.99897*(1.-SLTR**.25)-5.48866*(1.-SLTR**.5))

TQSL=QSL(2)+QSL(3)+QSL(4)

QSL(2:4)= QSL(2:4)/TQSL

QWTSL(I,1)=QSL(1)*WTSL

QWTSL(I,2:4)=QSL(2:4)*(WTSL- QWTSL(I,1))

Where

CSLQD = Proportion of annual OASDI covered State and Local wages paid in each quarter

I = Calendar year

QSL = Proportion of annual OASDI taxable State and Local wages paid in each quarter

QWTSL = Quarterly OASDI taxable State and Local wages

SLTR = Ratio of OASDI taxable to covered State and Local wages

WTSL = OASDI taxable State and Local wages

Quarterly OASDI taxable wage liabilities

WTLQSL(I,J) = QWTSL(I,J) * TRW(I)

Where

I = Calendar year

J = Quarter

TRW = OASDI combined employee-employer tax rate

WTLQSL = Quarterly OASDI taxable State and Local combined employee-employer wage liabilities

Private household quarterly OASDI taxable wages and liabilities

QWTPHH(I,J) = WCPHH(I) * QDPHH(J)

WTLQPHH(I,J) = QWTPHH(I,J) * TRW(I)

Where

I = Calendar year

J = Quarter

QDPHH = Proportion of annual OASDI taxable private household wages paid in each quarter

QWTPHH = Quarterly OASDI taxable private household wages

TRW = OASDI combined employee-employer tax rate

WCPHH = Annual OASDI covered private household wages

WTLQPHH = Quarterly OASDI taxable private household combined employee-employer wage liabilities

Farm taxable wages

Annual OASDI

BAFMW = 7467.91

AWCFM97 = ACFMW(1997)

F = MAX / (ACFMW * BAFMW / AWCFM97)

IF(F.LT.0.066953142)THEN

 FMTR=F- (1.30211/1.75)*F**1.75

ELSE IF(F.LT.0.401718855)THEN

 FMTR=-(1.18244/1.35)*F**1.35+(.25412/1.75)*F**1.75+1.24681*F-.001598087

ELSE IF(F.LT.0.669531425)THEN

 FMTR=-(.508764/.6)*DEXP(-.6*F)-(.300083/2.8)*DEXP(-2.8*F)+.0188542*F+.966550312

ELSE IF(F.LT.1.87468799)THEN

 FMTR=-(.638146/.6)*DEXP(-.6*F)-(.0322774/1.5)*DEXP(-1.5*F)-.033706*F+1.133974442

ELSE IF(F.LT.2.41031313)THEN

 FMTR=-(2.64644/1.1)*DEXP(-1.1*F)+(17.4638/2)*DEXP(-2*F)-(26.4191/2.5)*DEXP(-2.5*F)+.00686748*F+.909154345

ELSE IF(F.LT.4.82062626)THEN

 FMTR=-(1.06567/1.3)*F**1.3+(.073837/2.1)*F**2.1+1.31021*F-.007628879

ELSE IF(F.LT.6.427501679)THEN

 FMTR=-(.178355/.5)*DEXP(-.5*F)-(1.70356/1.3)*DEXP(-1.3*F)+.00115171*F+.959096096

ELSE IF(F.LT.10.7125028)THEN

 FMTR=-(.0474377/0.35)*DEXP(-.35*F)-(1.32456/1)*DEXP(-1*F)+.0016146*F+.957903052

ELSE IF(F.LT.11.38203422)THEN
161

 FMTR=-(.0581938/.35)*DEXP(-.35*F)+.00130453*F+.961918378

ELSE IF(F.LT.24.1031313)THEN

 FMTR=-(.0492564/.3)*DEXP(-.3*F)+.000761577*F+.97040299

ELSE

 FMTR=-(.00304904/.06)*DEXP(-.06*F)+1.000606299

END IF

TFMW=FMTR*WCFM

Where

ACFMW = Annual average OASDI covered farm wages

AWCFM97 = Annual average OASDI covered farm wages for 1997

BAFMW = Average farm wage in 1% sample data for 1997 used to produce equations

F = Ratio of taxable maximum to annual average OASDI covered farm wages adjusted for average wage used in 

equations

FMTR = Ratio of OASDI taxable to covered farm wages

MAX = OASDI taxable maximum

TFMW = Annual OASDI taxable farm wages

Quarterly OASDI wages and liabilities

QWTFM(I,J) = TTFMD(I,J) * TFMW

WTLQFM(I,J) = QWTFM(I,J) * TRW(I)

Where

I = Calendar year

J = Quarter

QWTFM = Quarterly OASDI taxable farm wages

TFMW = Annual OASDI taxable farm wages

TRW = OASDI com

TTFMD = Proportion of annual OASDI taxable farm wages paid in each quarter

WTLQFM = Quarterly OASDI taxable farm combined employee-employer wage liabilities

Quarterly OASDI taxable employee tips

QWTTIPSEE(I,J) = QDTIP(J) * WTTIPSEE(I)

QWTTIPSEE(I,2) = QWTTIPSEE(I,2) + WTTIPSSR(I)

WTLQTIPSEE(I,J) = QWTTIPSEE(I,J) * TRW(I)

Where

I = Calendar year

J = Quarter

QDTIP = Proportion of annual OASDI taxable tips received in each quarter

QWTTIPSEE = Quarterly OASDI taxable tips received by employees

WTLQTIPSEE = Quarterly OASDI combined employee-employer wage liabilities on taxable tips received by employees

TRW = OASDI combined employee-employer tax rate

WTTIPSEE = Annual OASDI taxable tips received by employees reported by employers

WTTIPSSR = Annual OASDI taxable tips received by employees self-reported on income tax returns

Private non-farm OASDI taxable wages and liabilities

Annual

WTPNF = WTER – WTFC – WTML – WTSL – TFMW – WTTIPSEE – WTTIPSSR

Where

TFMW = Annual OASDI taxable farm wages

WTSL = Annual OASDI taxable State and Local wages

WTFC = Annual OASDI taxable Federal Civilian wages

WTPNF = Annual OASDI taxable private non-farm wages excluding tips

WTTIPSEE = Annual OASDI taxable tips received by employees reported by employers

WTTIPSSR = Annual OASDI taxable tips received by employees self-reported on income tax returns

WTER = Annual OASDI taxable employer wages

Quarterly

BACW93 = 21912.00

NACW = BACW93 / ACW93 * AWC

X = MAX / NACW

IF(X.LT.0.91274)THEN

 TWTR=1D0+.990751*DEXP(X)**(-1)/(-1)-.013904602
162

ELSE IF(X.LT.2.05367)THEN

 TWTR=1D0+(-.003129*X+(1.167562*DEXP(X)**(-1.17)/(-1.17)))-.065747345

ELSE IF(X.LT.4.791895)THEN

 TWTR=1D0+(.003962*X+(.770093*X**(-1.85053))/(-1.85053))-.06071106

ELSE

 TWTR=1D0+(.267708*X**(-.94))/(-.94)+.00066

END IF

IF(TWTR.LT.0.70)THEN

 QP(1)=-(-0.000575+0.18692*DLOG(TWTR)-0.23133*DLOG(TWTR)**2-

0.10453*DLOG(TWTR)**3+0.04306*DLOG(TWTR)**4+0.01906*DLOG(TWTR)**5)-0.0325201+PD(1)+TCPD(I,1)

 QP(2)=-(0.00657+1.7015*TWTR-8.60615*TWTR**2+14.444*TWTR**3-9.97171*TWTR**4+2.42519*TWTR**5)-

0.0080956+PD(2)+TCPD(I,2)

 QP(3)=-(0.12167+1.31142*TWTR**3-6.31672*TWTR**4+8.03785*TWTR**5-3.15412*TWTR**6)+0.019325+PD(3)+TCPD(I,3)

 QP(4)=-(0.1548-0.41354*TWTR**5+0.25874*TWTR**7)+0.0197767+PD(4)+TCPD(I,4)

ELSE IF(TWTR.LT.0.88)THEN

 QP(1)=0.224763-0.237056*TWTR+PD(1)+TCPD(I,1)

 QP(2)=0.190385-0.209676*TWTR+0.00176*(TWTR-0.7)/(0.88-0.7)+PD(2)+TCPD(I,2)

 QP(3)=-0.052523+0.05309*TWTR+PD(3)+TCPD(I,3)

 QP(4)=-0.354571+0.38249*TWTR+PD(4)+TCPD(I,4)

ELSE

 QP(1)=0.968092-1.877574*TWTR+0.904348*TWTR**2+PD(1)+TCPD(I,1)

 QP(2)=-0.468266+1.148107*TWTR-0.690132*TWTR**2+PD(2)+TCPD(I,2)

 QP(3)=-0.850885+1.824094*TWTR-0.981557*TWTR**2+PD(3)+TCPD(I,3)

 QP(4)=0.350767-1.093966*TWTR+0.766972*TWTR**2+PD(4)+TCPD(I,4)

END IF

IF(PTR.LT.0.86)THEN

 QP(J)=QP(J)+ADJTP(J)

ELSE

 IF((ADJCP(J)-ADJTP(J)).NE.0D0)QP(J)=QP(J)+ADJTP(J)+((PTR-BPTR)/(1.-BPTR))**4*(ADJCP(J)-ADJTP(J))

END IF

QWTPNF(I, J) = QP(J) * WTPNF(I) + QWTTIPSEE(I, J) + QWTPHH(I, J)

QWTPNF(I, 2) = QWTPNF(I, 2) + WTTIPSSR(I)

Where

ACW93 = Annual average OASDI covered wage for 1993

AWC = Annual average OASDI covered wage for current year

BACW93 = Annual average OASDI covered wage for 1993 from actual data used to determine taxable to covered wage equations

I = Calendar year

J = Quarter

MAX = Annual OASDI taxable maximum

NACW = Annual average OASDI covered wage for current year adjusted for average from actual data used to determine 

equations

PD = Payday variable for private non-farm based on calendar

QP = Proportion of annual OASDI taxable private non-farm wages excluding taxable tips paid in each quarter

QWTPNF = Quarterly OASDI taxable private non-farm wages including tips

TCPD = Proportion of annual NIPA private wages paid in each quarter

TWTR = Ratio of OASDI taxable to covered wages computed using equations based on data for 1993

X = Ratio of annual OASDI taxable maximum to adjusted annual average OASDI covered wage (NACW)

Quarterly OASDI wage liabilities

WTLQPNF(I,J) = (QWTPNF(I,J) – QWTPHH(I,J)) * TRW(I)

Where

QWTPHH = Quarterly OASDI taxable private household wages

QWTPNF = Quarterly OASDI taxable private non-farm wages including tips

TRW = OASDI combined employee-employer tax rate

WTLQPNF = Quarterly OASDI tax liabilities from taxable private non-farm wages including tips, excluding private household 

taxable wages

Total quarterly OASDI taxable wages and wage liabilities

QWT(I,J) = QWTPNF(I,J) + QWTF(I,J) + QWTSL(I,J) + QWTFM(I,J)

WTLQ(I,J) = QWT(I,J) * TRW(I)

Where

I = Calendar year

J = Quarter

QWT = Quarterly OASDI taxable wages
163

QWTF = Quarterly OASDI taxable Federal wages

QWTFM = Quarterly OASDI taxable farm wages

QWTPNF = Quarterly OASDI taxable private non-farm wages including tips

QWTSL = Quarterly OASDI taxable State and Local wages

WTLQ = Quarterly OASDI taxable wage liabilities

2-4.12 OASDI quarterly taxable wage liability collections (WTLQC)

OASDI taxable private non-farm wages by sub-quarterly periods

PTR =WTP/WCP

MR =MAR(I)-.04346*(1.-PTR)+.08497*(1.-PTR)**2

JR =JUN(I)-.02627*(1.-PTR)-.26844*(1.-PTR)**2

SR =SEP(I)-.12321*(1.-PTR)-.02344*(1.-PTR)**2

DR =DEC(I)-.12468*(1.-PTR)-.20710*(1.-PTR)**2

MWTP(1)=QWTP(I,1)*MR

MWTP(2)=QWTP(I,1)-MWTP(1)

MWTP(3)=QWTP(I,2)*JR

MWTP(4)=QWTP(I,2)-MWTP(3)

MWTP(5)=QWTP(I,3)*SR

MWTP(6)=QWTP(I,3)-MWTP(5)

MWTP(7)=QWTP(I,4)*DR

MWTP(8)=QWTP(I,4)-MWTP(7)

Where

DEC = Proportion of fourth quarter OASDI covered private non-farm wages (excluding tips and household) paid in December

DR = Proportion of fourth quarter OASDI taxable private non-farm wages (excluding tips and household) paid in December

I = Calendar year

JR = Proportion of second quarter OASDI taxable private non-farm wages (excluding tips and household) paid in June

JUN = Proportion of second quarter OASDI covered private non-farm wages (excluding tips and household) paid in June

MAR = Proportion of first quarter OASDI covered private non-farm wages (excluding tips and household) paid in March

MR = Proportion of first quarter OASDI taxable private non-farm wages (excluding tips and household) paid in March

MWTP = OASDI taxable private non-farm wages (excluding tips and household) paid in last month and in first two months of 

quarter

PTR = Ratio of annual OASDI taxable private non-farm wages (excluding tips and household) to covered private non-farm wages

QWTP = Quarterly OASDI taxable private non-farm wages (excluding tips and household)

SEP = Proportion of third quarter OASDI covered private non-farm wages (excluding tips and household) paid in September

SR = Proportion of third quarter OASDI taxable private non-farm wages (excluding tips and household) paid in September

WCP = Annual OASDI covered private non-farm wages

WTP = Annual OASDI taxable private non-farm wages (excluding tips and household)

OASDI taxable private non-farm wages collected on in same quarter wages are paid

TRAT =RATEE(I,5)

CA =.95

MWCP(1)=QWSCPNF(I,1)*MAR(I)

MWCP(2)=QWSCPNF(I,1)-MWCP(1)

MWCP(3)=QWSCPNF(I,2)*JUN(I)

MWCP(4)=QWSCPNF(I,2)-MWCP(3)

MWCP(5)=QWSCPNF(I,3)*SEP(I)

MWCP(6)=QWSCPNF(I,3)-MWCP(5)

MWCP(7)=QWSCPNF(I,4)*DEC(I)

MWCP(8)=QWSCPNF(I,4)-MWCP(7)

RCSM =.80

QRMREQ=750.

QRWREQ=11250.

RMF=70786.*WSP(I)/1001400.

CALL ITERNU(QRMREQ,MWTP(2),MWCP(2),TRAT,RMF,PWCS(1))

CALL ITERNU(QRWREQ,MWTP(1),MWCP(1),TRAT,RMF,PWCE(1))

CALL ITERNU(QRMREQ,MWTP(4),MWCP(4),TRAT,RMF,PWCS(2))

CALL ITERNU(QRWREQ,MWTP(3),MWCP(3),TRAT,RMF,PWCE(2))

CALL ITERNU(QRMREQ,MWTP(6),MWCP(6),TRAT,RMF,PWCS(3))

CALL ITERNU(QRWREQ,MWTP(5),MWCP(5),TRAT,RMF,PWCE(3))

CALL ITERNU(QRMREQ,MWTP(8),MWCP(8),TRAT,RMF,PWCS(4))

CALL ITERNU(QRWREQ,MWTP(7),MWCP(7),TRAT,RMF,PWCE(4))

DO J=1,4

 QWTPC(I,J)=PWCS(J)+PWCE(J)*RCSM*CA

 QWTPF(I,J)=QWSTXPHH(I,J)-QWTPC(I,J)

END DO
164

Where

AWSCODXSRT = Annual average OASDI covered private non-farm wages (excluding household)

CA = Compliance allowance

DEC = Proportion of fourth quarter OASDI covered private non-farm wages (excluding tips and household) paid in 

December

I = Calendar year

J = Quarter

JUN = Proportion of second quarter OASDI covered private non-farm wages (excluding tips and household) paid in 

June

MAR = Proportion of first quarter OASDI covered private non-farm wages (excluding tips and household) paid in 

March

MWCP = OASDI covered private non-farm wages paid in third month and in first two months of each quarter

MWTP = OASDI taxable private non-farm wages paid in third month and in first two months of each quarter

PWCE = OASDI taxable private non-farm wages paid in the third month of each quarter

PWCS = OASDI taxable private non-farm wages paid in the first two months of each quarter on which taxes are 

collected in that quarter

QWSCPNF = Quarterly OASDI covered private non-farm wages

QRMREQ = Monthly deposit requirement

QRWREQ = Quarterly deposit requirement

QWSTXPHH = Quarterly OASDI taxable private non-farm wages (excluding household)

QWTPC = Quarterly OASDI taxable private non-farm wages on which employers deposit taxes in the quarter the wages 

were paid

QWTPF = Quarterly OASDI taxable private non-farm wages on which employers deposit taxes in the quarter after the 

wages were paid

RATEE(I,5) = OASDHI employee tax rate

RCSM = Proportion of OASDI taxable private non-farm wages wages paid in same quarter in which taxes are collected

RMF = Current year average wage size of firm

SEP = Proportion of third quarter OASDI covered private non-farm wages (excluding tips and household) paid in 

September

TRAT = OASDHI employee tax rate

WSP = Economy-wide (NIPA) private wages

SUBROUTINE ITERNU(A11,QPAR,QTOT,T,RMF,AMTOUT)

 R=QPAR/QTOT

 X=A11/(T*2.+.10)

 DO

 IWH=X*(.16011+.01998*LOG(X/RMF)-.01)

 FWH=T*2.*X*((-1.4402*LOG(1.+X/RMF)+1.)*(1.-R)+R)

 A1=IWH+FWH

 D=A11/A1

 N1=D*1000.

 IF(N1.EQ.999.OR.N1.EQ.1000)THEN

 RTAX=R+(1.-R)*(-1.07115*X/RMF+.38633*(X/RMF)**2+1)

 TOD=177.16+1142.7*DEXP(-(X/RMF))+1181.26*DEXP(-3.*(X/RMF))-907.88*DEXP(-4.*(X/RMF))+646.49*DEXP(-5.*(X/RMF))-

 165.09*DEXP(-6.*(X/RMF))-20.92*X/RMF-2906.07/(X/RMF+1.)**2+831.44/(X/RMF+1.)**3

 AMTOUT=QPAR-RTAX*TOD*QTOT

 RETURN

 END IF

 X=X*D

 END DO

END SUBROUTINE ITERNU

Where

A1 = Total (income plus FICA) taxes withheld

A11 = Deposit requirement

AMTOUT = OASDI taxable private non-farm wages paid in sub-quarterly period and collected on in same quarter

D = Ratio of deposit requirement to total taxes withheld

FWH = FICA taxes withheld

IWH = Income taxes withheld

N1 = Ratio of deposit requirement to total taxes withheld times 1000 (used to see how close we are to target)

QPAR = OASDI taxable private non-farm wages paid in sub-quarterly period

QTOT = OASDI covered private non-farm wages paid in sub-quarterly period

R = Initial ratio of OASDI taxable to covered private non-farm wages paid in sub-quarterly period

RMF = Current year average wage size of firm

RTAX = Ratio of OASDI taxable to covered private non-farm wages paid in sub-quarterly period

T = OASDHI employee tax rate

TOD = Proportion of liabilities to be deposited in quarter after that in which wages paid

X = Taxable wage amount needed to meet deposit requirement

OASDI taxable private wages collected on in same quarter wages paid and in following quarter
165

QWTPCQ(I,J)=QWTPC(I,J)+QWTPHHCQ(I,J)+QWTFM(I,J)

QWTPFQ(I,J)=QWTPF(I,J)+QWTPHHFQ(I,J)

OASDI taxable State and Local wages collected on in same quarter wages paid and in following quarter

SLTR=WTSL/WCSL

LMPW(1)=MARSL(I)-.00329*(1.-SLTR**2)

LMPW(2)=JUNSL(I)-.68187*(1.-SLTR**3)+.52206*(1-SLTR**4)

LMPW(3)=SEPSL(I)-1.33596*(1.-SLTR)+1.51187*(1.-SLTR**2)-.63523*(1.-SLTR**3)

LMPW(4)=DECSL(I)-2.03892*(1.-SLTR)+1.90430*(1.-SLTR**2)-.6633*(1.-SLTR**3)

DO J=1,4

 SLCR(J)=(1.-LMPW(J))+LMPW(J)*LMCRPR(I-16,J)

 QWTSLC(I,J)=SLCR(J)*QWTSL(I,J)

 QWTSLF(I,J)=QWTSL(I,J)-QWTSLC(I,J)

END DO

Where

DECSL = Proportion of OASDI taxable State and Local wages paid in fourth quarter which are paid in December

I = Calendar year

J = Quarter

JUNSL = Proportion of OASDI taxable State and Local wages paid in second quarter which are paid in June

LMCRPR = Proportion of OASDI taxable State and Local wages paid in final month of quarter on which employers are to deposit 

taxes in the same quarter

LMPW = Proportion of quarterly OASDI taxable State and Local wages paid in final month of quarter

MARSL = Proportion of OASDI taxable State and Local wages paid in first quarter which are paid in March

QWTSL = Quarterly OASDI taxable State and Local wages paid in quarter

QWTSLC = Quarterly OASDI taxable State and Local wages paid in quarter on which taxes are deposited by the employer in the 

same quarter

QWTSLF = Quarterly OASDI taxable State and Local wages paid in quarter on which taxes are deposited by the employer in the 

following quarter

SEPSL = Proportion of OASDI taxable State and Local wages paid in third quarter which are paid in September

SLCR = Proportion of OASDI taxable State and Local wages paid in quarter on which taxes are deposited by the employer in 

the same quarter

SLTR = Ratio of OASDI taxable to covered State and Local wages

WCSL = Annual OASDI covered State and Local wages

WTSL = Annual OASDI taxable State and Local wages

OASDI taxable wages collected on in same quarter wages paid and in following quarter

WTQCQ(I,J)= QWTPCQ(I,J)+ QWTSLC(I,J)+QWTF(I,J)

WTQFQ(I,J)= QWTPFQ(I,J)+ QWTSLF(I,J)

Where

I = Calendar year

J = Quarter

QWTF = Quarterly OASDI taxable Federal wages

QWTPCQ = Quarterly OASDI taxable private wages collected on in same quarter wages paid

QWTPFQ = Quarterly OASDI taxable private wages collected on quarter following that in which wages paid

QWTSLCQ = Quarterly OASDI taxable State and Local wages collected on in same quarter wages paid

QWTSLFQ = Quarterly OASDI taxable State and Local wages collected on in quarter following that in which wages paid

WTQCQ = Quarterly OASDI taxable wages collected on in same quarter wages paid

WTQFQ = Quarterly OASDI taxable wages collected on in quarter following that in which wages paid

Quarterly OASDI wage tax collections

WTLQC(I,1) = TRW(I-1) * WTQFQ(I-1,4) + TRW(I) * WTQCQ(I,J)

DO J = 2, 4

 WTLQC(I,J) = TRW(I) * (WTQFQ(I,J-1) + WTQCQ(I,J))

END DO

Where

I = Calendar year

J = Quarter

TRW = OASDI combined employee-employer tax rate

WTLQC = Quarterly OASDI wage tax collections

WTQCQ = Quarterly OASDI taxable wages collected on in same quarter wages paid

WTQFQ = Quarterly OASDI taxable wages collected on in quarter following that in which wages paid

2-4.13 Quarterly Self-Employed Net Income Tax Collections (SELQC)
166

DO J = 1, 4

 SELQC(I,J) = SECRCY(I,J) * SEL(I) + SECRPY(I,J) * SEL(I-1)

END DO

Where

I = Calendar year

J = Quarter

SECRCY = Proportion of OASDI taxable self-employment earnings collected on in same year earned

SECRPY = Proportion of OASDI taxable self-employment earnings collected on in year following that in which earned

SEL = OASDI taxable self-employment earnings liabilities

SELQC = Quarterly OASDI self-employed net income tax collections

2-4.14 SECA Appropriation Adjustments (MSECAAA)

MSECAAA = 0

DO L = I-2, I-9, -1

 MSECAAA = MSECAAA + SEAACO(I,J) * SELIAC(L)

END DO

Where

I = Calendar year

J = Quarter

L = Liability year

MSECAAA = OASDI SECA appropriation adjustment for quarter (assigned to last month in quarter)

SEAACO = Proportion of past year’s OASDI self-employment tax liability which will be reported in current quarter

SELIAC = Prior years’ OASDI self-employment tax liability
167

Appendix 2-2

Economic Acronyms

AA Appropriation adjustments 

ACE Average OASDI covered earnings

ACSE Average OASDI covered self-employed income

ACW

ACWC

ADJ_FSA_FC

AWEFC_N

AWI

AWSE

AWSGEFC

AWSGFC

AWSGFM

AWSGGEFC

AWSGGESL

AWSP

AWSPH

AWSPL

AWSSP

Average OASDI covered wage

Average economy-wide wage

Adjustment to lower federal civilian covered wages relative to NIPA 

wages due to a presumed increase in the relative amount placed into an 

FSA 

Average wage for Federal civilian employees not covered under OASDI

Average wage index calculated by SSA; based on the average wage of all 

workers with wages from Forms W-2

Economy-wide average wage

Average wage for the Federal government enterprises

Average wage for the Federal civilian government

Average wage for the military

Average wage for the Federal government & government enterprises

Average wage for State and local government and government enterprises

Average wages, private sector

Average wage in private household sector

Average wages, private sector, 2-year moving average

Average compensation, private sector

AWSSPBNFXGE

AWSSPES

Average compensation, private nonfarm business, excluding government 

enterprises

Average compensation, private sector, educational services

AWSSPF

AWSSPHS

AWSSPL

AWSSPSS

AWSUI

AWS_MEF

AYF

AYF_K

AYNF

AYNF_K

Average compensation, private farm, wage workers

Average compensation, private sector, health services 

Lagged average compensation for private sector workers

Average compensation, private sector, social services

Average wage of workers under UI 

Average wage for employees with any wages (covered and noncovered) 

posted to the MEF

Average proprietor income, private farm 

Ratio of average self-employment income to average wage-worker 

compensation for the agriculture sector

Average proprietor income, private nonfarm business

Ratio of average self-employment income to average wage-worker 

compensation for the nonagriculture sector

BEA The Bureau of Economic Analysis

BLS

CFCGEFC

CFCGESL

CFCGFC

The Bureau of Labor Statistics

Compensation of fixed capital, Federal government enterprises

Government consumption of fixed capital, Government enterprises, State 

& local

Compensation of fixed capital, Federal civilian
168

CFCGFM

CFCGSL

Federal Government Consumption Expenditures, Defense Consumption 

Expenditures

State & Local Government consumption expenditures, Gross output of 

general government, Value added, consumption of general government 

fixed capital

CMB_TOT

CML

Workers that have a combination of both OASDI covered wages and selfemployed income.

Ratio of Federal military OASDI covered wages to NIPA wages

COV

CP

Economic Sub-Process: Covered Employment and Earnings

Ratio of Private OASDI Covered to NIPA wages; OASDI private coverage 

ratio

CPI The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers 

(CPI-W) is an official measure of inflation in consumer prices, published 

by the BLS.

CPS

CR_UI 

CRAZ1

Current Population Survey, conducted monthly by the Bureau of Census 

for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It is the source of historical monthly 

economic data (such as labor force, civilian noninstitutional population, 

and unemployment) used to project US employment.

Civilian pay raise

CSE_TOT

CSLA

Total OASDI covered self-employed income

Ratio of State and Local OASDI Covered to NIPA wages

CSRS Civil Service Retirement System

CSW

DNEDMIL

DRTP, DRTPP, 

DRTPN, DRTP1Q, 

DNRTP1Q, 

DPRTP1Q

Self-employed only workers (SEO) plus combination workers 

(CMB_TOT)

Decreases in the military population (as shown by the difference over four 

quarters)

Dummy variables for positive and negative 

economic cycle trends

E

E_FE

Total employment, CPS concept (i.e., average of monthly estimates of

total wage and salary workers, plus self employed, plus unpaid family 

workers)

Civilian employment level at full employment (i.e., at potential GDP)

EA

EAS

EAW

Total agricultural employment

Civilian Employment Level, Self employed workers: agriculture, SA

Employment by class of worker, agricultural wage workers

EDMIL

EGFC

EGEFCPS

Total number serving in the US Armed Forces estimated by the 

Department of Defense and published by the Census Bureau

Federal civilian government employment

Employment, Establishment Data, All Employees: Government, Federal 

Government Enterprises, U.S. Postal Service
169

EGGEFC

EGGESL

EMPTRDI

EMPTRHI

EMPTROASI

ENA

ENAS

ENAU

ENAW

ENAWPBXGE

ENAWPH

ENAWSPBXGE

Employment, Establishment Data, All Employees: Government, Federal 

Government, SA

Employment, State & Local government enterprises 

DI employer tax rate

HI employer tax rate

OASI employer tax rate

Civilian Employment Level, Nonagricultural industries, 16 years and over, 

SA

Employment by class of worker, nonagricultural self-employed

Employment by class of worker, nonagricultural unpaid family workers

Employment by class of worker, nonagricultural wage workers 

Employment for private nonfarm business

Employment by class of worker, nonagricultural wage workers, private 

household workers

Employment for private nonfarm business and nonagricultural selfemployed

EO Total employment in the other immigrant population

EO_A Total employment in the other immigrant population who are temporarily 

authorized to reside or work in the US

EO_ESF Total employment in the other immigrant population whose reported 

earnings are posted to the Earnings Suspense File

EO_MEF Total employment in the other immigrant population whose earnings are 

reported and posted to the Master Earnings File

EO_MEFC Total employment in the other immigrant population whose earnings are 

reported and posted to the Master Earnings File and are OASDI-covered

EO_NA Total employment in the other immigrant population who have overstayed 

their authorization

EO_NO Total employment in the other immigrant population who were never 

authorized to reside or work in the US

EO_UND

EP

EPES_EST

EPHS_EST

EPSS_EST

Total employment in the other immigrant population that is strictly in the 

underground economy (i.e., with no earnings reported)

Employees in Private industries

Employees by industry, Private industries, Educational services

Employment for private health services

Employees by industry, Private industries, Social Assistance

ES Self-employed workers

ETP Effective annual taxable payroll, equal to total employer taxable OASDI 

wages plus total self-employed taxable income minus one half of the 

multi-employer refund wages 

EU Unpaid family workers

EW Wage and salaried workers

FERS Federal Employee Retirement System

GDP Gross domestic product
170

GDP05

GDPG

GDPGE

GDPGEFC

GDPGESL

GDPGF

GDPGFC

GDPGFM

GDPGGE

GDPGGEFC

GDPGGESL

GDPGSL

GDPPBNFXGE

GDPPF

GDPPH

GDPPNI

GDP, 2005$

GDP, General Government

GDP, Federal and State & local government enterprises

GDP, Federal civilian government enterprises

GDP, State & local government enterprises

GDP, General Government, Federal

GDP, Federal civilian

GDP, military

GDP, Federal and State & local government enterprises

GDP, Federal civilian government and government enterprises

GDP, State & local government and government enterprises

GDP, General Government, State & Local

GDP, private nonfarm business, excluding government enterprises

GDP, private business sector, farm

GDP, Private Households

GDP, Nonprofit institutions serving households

HI

HIFC_L

HIFM_L

HIP_L

HISL_L

KGDP05

Hospital insurance

HI Employer Liability, Federal Civilian

HI Employer Liability, Federal Military

HI Employer Liability, Private

HI Employer Liability, State & Local

Potential real GDP, 2005$

LC US labor force, equal to the sum of number of persons employed and 

number of persons seeking employment

LFPR Labor force participation rate, defined as the ratio of the number of persons 

in the US labor force to the number of persons in the US noninstitutional 

population.

M

MER

MRAZ

Military population 

Multi-employer refund wages

Military pay raise

N Civilian noninstitutional population

NCE Total noncovered employment

NIPA The National Income and Product Accounts, published by the BEA, 

providing historical estimates of quarterly earnings and output measures

NRA Normal retirement age

OASDI

OASDIFC_L

OASDIFM_L

OASDIP_L

OASDISL_L

Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance

OASDI Employer Liability, Federal Civilian

OASDI Employer Liability, Federal Military

OASDI Employer Liability, Private

OASDI Employer Liability, State & Local

OASDHI Old-Age, Survivors, Disability, and Health Insurance

OLI

OLI_CSRS1

OLI_FC

Employer contributions for employee pension and insurance funds

Contributions for CSRS employees’ pay

Other labor income, Federal civilian
171

OLI_FERS1

OLI_FERSFC

OLI_GGE

OLI_GHI

OLI_GHI_FC

OLI_GHI_P

OLI_GHI_SL

OLI_GLI

OLI_GLI_FC

OLI_GLI_P

OLI_GLI_SL

OLI_P

OLI_PPPS

OLI_PPS

OLI_RETFC

OLI_RETFM

OLI_RETSL

OLI_SL

OLI_SU

OLI_WC

OLI_WCP

OLI_WCSL

OLIF_RETFCO

OOH

OP

OP_A

Contributions for FERS employees’ pay

Employer contributions to Thrift Savings Plan for FERS employees

Other labor income, government and government enterprises

Other labor income by type, Employer contributions to pension and 

welfare funds, private welfare funds, Group health insurance

Employer contributions for employee pension & insurance funds, group 

health insurance, Federal civilian government sector

Employer contributions for employee pension & insurance funds, group 

health insurance, private sector

Employer contributions for employee pension & insurance funds, group 

health insurance, State & local government sector

Employer contributions for employee pension and insurance funds, 

Group life insurance

Employer contributions for employee pension & insurance funds, group 

life insurance, Federal civilian government sector

Employer contributions for employee pension & insurance funds, group 

life insurance, private sector

Employer contributions for employee pension & insurance funds, group 

life insurance, State & local government sector

Employer contributions for employee pension and insurance funds, 

private industries

Other Labor Income, Private Sector Pension and Profit Sharing 

Employer contributions for employee pension and insurance funds, 

Pension & profit-sharing

Employer contributions for employee pension and insurance funds, 

Publicly administered government employee retirement plans, Federal 

civilian

Employer contributions for employee pension and insurance funds, 

Publicly administered government employee retirement plans, Federal 

military

Employer contributions for employee pension and insurance funds, 

Publicly administered government employee retirement plans, State and 

local

Other labor income, State and local

Employer contributions for employee pension and insurance funds, 

Supplemental unemployment

Employer contributions for employee pension and insurance funds, 

Workers’ compensation

Private employer contribution to other labor income, total for workers' 

compensation 

Employer contributions to workers’ compensation, State and local

Other government contributions to Federal civilian retirement

Owner-occupied housing

Other immigrant population

Other immigrant population who are temporarily authorized to reside or 

work in the US
172

OP_NA

OP_NO

PGDP

PGDPAF

Other immigrant population who have overstayed their authorization

Other immigrant population who were never authorized to reside or 

work in the US

Gross Domestic Product Price Index, Units: 2005=100

Deflator for farm output

PIA Primary insurance amount

PIARR PIA replacement rate, defined as the ratio of a hypothetical medium 

scale worker’s PIA to his/her career average indexed earnings.

PGDP GDP price deflator

PBNFXGE Private nonfarm business excluding government enterprises

RCMB Proportion of wage workers who are also self-employed 

(CMB_TOT/WSW)

RCSE

RCWSF

RCWSM

RCWSP

RCWSSL

Covered self-employed ratio, defined as the ratio of total covered selfemployment income to total proprietor income (CSE_TOT/Y).

Ratio of compensation to wages in the Federal government

Ratio of compensation to wages in the military

Ratio of compensation to wages in the private sector

Ratio of compensation to wages in the State and local sector

RD Disability prevalence ratio, defined as the ratio of disabled worker 

beneficiaries to the disability-insured population.

RELMAX

RELMAX_UI

Ratio of the TAXMAX to averaged covered earnings

Ratio of the aggregate weighted average of the UI taxable maximum to 

the average UI wage

RET Earnings test ratio, defined the ratio of the maximum amount of earnings 

before an OASDI benefit is reduced to the average wage index. 

RFS

RGR_GHI

RHIP_L

Family size ratio, defined as the ratio of the number of children under 6 

to mothers of a certain age.

Product of HI tax rate, private coverage ratio, and the taxable ratio

RM Military ratio, the ratio of the US armed forces to the noninstitutionalized population.

RMER

ROASDIP_L

ROLI_PPPS

ROLI_SU

ROLI_WCP

Multi-employer refund wage ratio, defined as the ratio of multiemployer refund wages to total OASDI wages.

Product of OASDI tax rate, private coverage ratio, and the taxable ratio

Ratio of employer contributions to private pension and profit-sharing to 

private wages

Ratio of private employer contributions for employee pension and 

insurance funds, Supplemental unemployment to private wages

Ratio of private employer contribution to other labor income, total for 

workers’ compensation to private wages

RSET

RSOC_UIP

RSOC_WCP

Self-employed net income taxable ratio, defined as the ratio of total selfemployed taxable income to total OASDI wages.

Ratio of private employer contributions to social insurance, total for 

unemployment insurance, to private wages

Ratio of private employer contributions to social insurance, total for 
173

RSOCF_PBG

RSOCSL_WC

workers' compensation to private wages

Ratio of private employer insurance contribution to the Pension Benefit 

Guaranty Trust Corporation to private wages

Ratio of combined Private and State & local sector employer 

contributions to social insurance for workers' compensation to the 

combined Private and State and local sector employer contributions to 

workers' compensation

RTE Ratio of total employment to the sum of wage & salary, self-employed 

workers, and the military (TE/(EW + ES + military))

RTP A summary measure of the economic cycle equal to the ratio of real 

GDP to potential GDP

RU

RUIWS

RWCWS

Civilian unemployment rate defined as the ratio of the unemployed US 

labor force to the total US labor force

Effective tax rate for employer contributions to unemployment 

insurance

Effective tax rate for employer contributions to workers’ compensation

RWSC Covered wage ratio, defined as the ratio of OASDI covered wages to 

total wage and salary disbursements (WSC/WSD)

RWSD

RWSSPBNFXGE

Earnings ratio, defined as the ratio of total wage and salary 

disbursements to total wage and worker compensation(WSD/WSS)

Ratio of compensation to GDP in private business nonfarm excluding 

government enterprises

RWSSY Total compensation ratio, defined as the ratio of total compensation to 

gross domestic product (WSSY/GDP)

RWTEE Employee taxable ratio, defined as the ratio total employee OASDI 

taxable wages to total OASDI covered wages.

RY Income ratio, defined as the percentage of total compensation 

attributable to proprietor income (Y/WSSY).

S&L State and Local government

SEL Self-employment tax liabilities

SELQC Quarterly self-employed net income tax collections

SEO Workers that report only OASDI covered self-employed earnings

SEPR Self employed participation rate (the proportion of employed persons 

that are self employed) 

SET Total self-employed taxable income

SOC

SOC_FC

SOC_FM

SOC_GGE

SOC_P

SOC_SL

SOC_UIP

Employer contributions for government social insurance

Employer contributions for social insurance, Federal civilian sector

Employer contributions for government social insurance, Federal 

government, military sector

Employer contributions for social insurance, government and 

government enterprises

Employer contributions for social insurance, private industries

Employer contributions for social insurance, State and local sector

Private employer contributions to social insurance, total for 

unemployment insurance 
174

SOC_UISL

SOC_WCP

SOC_WCSL

SOCF_HI

SOCF_MIFM

SOCF_OASDI

SOCF_PBG

SOCF_RETRR

SOCF_UIF

SOCF_UIFC

SOCF_UIFED

SOCF_UIFM

SOCF_UIS

SOCF_WC

SOCSL_WC

State and local government employer contributions to social insurance, 

total for unemployment insurance

Private employer contributions to social insurance, total for workers' 

compensation

State and Local government employer contributions to social insurance, 

total for workers'compensation

Contributions for Government Social Insurance, Employer 

Contributions, Federal Social Insurance Funds, Hospital Insurance 

Contributions for Government Social Insurance, Employer 

Contributions, Federal Social Insurance Funds, Military Medical 

Insurance

Contributions for Government Social Insurance, Employer 

Contributions, Federal Social Insurance Funds, Old-age, Survivors, And 

Disability Insurance

Contributions for Government Social Insurance, Employer 

Contributions, Federal Social Insurance Funds, Pension Benefit 

Guaranty

Contributions for Government Social Insurance, Employer 

Contributions, Federal Social Insurance Funds, Railroad Retirement

Contributions for Government Social Insurance, Employer 

Contributions, Federal Social Insurance Funds, Federal Unemployment 

Tax

Total federal civilian government employer contributions to 

unemployment insurance

Contributions for Government Social Insurance, Employer 

Contributions, Federal Social Insurance Funds, Federal Employees’ 

Unemployment Insurance

Total federal government employer contributions to unemployment 

insurance, military

Contributions for Government Social Insurance, Employer 

Contributions, Federal Social Insurance Funds, State Unemployment 

Insurance

Contributions for Government Social Insurance, Employer 

Contributions, Federal Social Insurance Funds, Worker’s Compensation 

Contributions for Government Social Insurance, Employer 

Contributions, State and Local Social Insurance Funds, Workers’ 

Compensation

SSA Social Security Administration

TAXMAX OASDI contribution and benefit base

TAXPAY Economic Sub-Process: Taxable Payroll

TCE Total OASDI covered employment

TE

TEFC_N

Total “at any time” employment

Total “at any time” employment, Federal civilian, without Federal 

civilian OASDI

TEO Total “at any time” employment in the other immigrant population
175

TEO_ESF Total “at any time” employment in the other immigrant population 

whose reported earnings are posted to the Earnings Suspense File

TEO_MEF Total “at any time” employment in the other immigrant population 

whose earnings are reported and posted to the Master Earnings File

TEO_MEFC Total “at any time” employment in the other immigrant population 

whose earnings are reported and posted to the Master Earnings File and 

are OASDI-covered

TEO_UND

TMAXUI_SL

TRATE_UI

TRATIO_UI

Total “at any time” employment in the other immigrant population that 

is strictly in the underground economy (i.e., with no earnings reported)

Taxable maximum for State & local unemployment insurance

TRSE OASDI self-employed tax rate

TRW

TXRP

Combined OASDI employee-employer tax rate

OASDI private taxable ratio

U The number of persons in the labor force who are unemployed

USEAR Economic Sub-Process: U.S. Earnings 

USEMP

WEFC_N

WS

Economic Sub-Process: U.S. Employment

Wages for Federal civilian employees not covered under OASDI

Compensation of Employees, Wage and Salary Accruals

WSC Total OASDI covered wages

WSD

WSDP

WSGEFC

WSGFC

WSGFM

WSGGEFC

WSGGESL

WSP

WSPF

WSPH

WSPNI

WSPRRB

WS_MEF

Total wage and salary disbursements

Private wage and salary disbursements

Government Wages and Salaries, Federal civilian, Government 

Enterprises

Wage and salary accruals by industry, Government, Federal civilian

Wage and salary accruals by industry, Government, Federal, Military

Wages for the Federal government & government enterprises

Wages for State and local government and government enterprises

Compensation of Employees, Wage and Salary Accruals

Wage and salary accruals by industry, Private industries, Farms

Wage and salary accruals by industry, Private industries, Households

Wage and salary accruals by industry, Private industries, Nonprofit 

institutions serving households

Wages covered by Railroad Retirement Act

Total wages posted to the MEF

WSS

WSSG

WSSGE

WSSGEFC

WSSGESL

WSSGF

WSSGFC

Total wage worker compensation

Compensation for Federal and State & local government

Compensation for Federal and State & local government enterprises

Compensation of employees by industry, Government, Federal

Compensation of employees by industry, Government, State and local 

government enterprises

Federal Government Consumption Expenditures, Compensation of 

General Government Employees

Compensation of employees by industry, Government, Federal civilian
176

WSSGFM

WSSGGE

WSSGGESL

WSSGSL

WSSP

WSSPBNFXGE

WSSPES

WSSPF

WSSPH

WSSPHS

WSSPNI

WSSPSS

Compensation of employees by industry, Government, Military

National Income w/o Capital Consumption Adjustment, Government

Compensation for the State & local government and government 

enterprises

State & Local Government Consumption Expenditures, Compensation 

of General Government Employees

Compensation of employees by industry, Private industries

Compensation in private business nonfarm excluding government 

enterprises

Compensation of employees by industry, Private industries, Educational 

services

Compensation of employees by industry, Private industries, Farms

Compensation of employees by industry, Private industries, Households

Compensation of employees by industry, Private industries, Health 

services

Compensation of employees by industry, Private industries, Nonprofit 

institutions serving households

Compensation of employees by industry, Private industries, Social 

assistance

WSSY Total compensation for wage and salary workers and proprietors

WSW

WSW_MEF

Wage and salary workers that report some OASDI covered earnings

Total number of employees with any wages posted to the MEF

WTEE Total employee OASDI taxable wages

WTER Total employer OASDI taxable wages

WTL Annual OASDI wage tax liabilities

WTLQ Quarterly OASDI wage tax liabilities

WTLQC Quarterly OASDI wage tax collections

Y

YF

YNF

Total proprietor income

National Income, Proprietors’ income with Inventory Valuation (IVA) 

and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj): farm sector

National Income, Proprietors’ income with IVA and CCAdj: nonfarm
177

Process 3:

Beneficiaries
178

3. Beneficiaries

OCACT uses the Beneficiaries process to project the fully insured and disability insured 

population, the number of disabled workers and their dependent beneficiaries, the number of 

retired worker and their dependent beneficiaries, and the number of dependent beneficiaries of 

deceased workers. The Beneficiaries process receives input data from the Demography and 

Economics sections along with data received from the Social Security Administration and other 

government agencies. Output data is provided to the Economics and Trust Fund Operations and 

Actuarial Status processes.

The Beneficiaries Process is composed of three subprocesses: INSURED, DISABILITY, and

OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS. As a rough overview, INSURED projects the number of 

people in the Social Security area population that have sufficient work histories for disability and 

retirement benefit eligibility. DISABILITY projects the number of disabled workers and their 

dependent beneficiaries. OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS projects the number of retired workers, 

their dependent beneficiaries, and the dependent beneficiaries of deceased workers.

All programs output data on an annual basis.
179

3.1. INSURED

3.1.a. Overview

Insured status is a critical requirement for a worker, who has participated in the covered 

economy, to receive Social Security benefits upon retirement or disability. The requirement for 

insured status depends on the age of a worker and his (or her) accumulation of quarters of 

coverage (QC).

INSURED is a simulation model that estimates the percentage of the population that is fully 

insured (FPRO) and disability insured (DPRO) throughout the projection period. These 

estimates are used in conjunction with estimates of the Social Security area population

(SSAPOP) to estimate the number of people that are fully insured (FINPOP) and disability 

insured (DINPOP). FINPOP is then used by the OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE 

subprocess, and both FINPOP and DINPOP are used by the DISABILITY subprocess. FINPOP 

and DINPOP are projected by age, sex, and cohort.

For each sex and birth cohort, INSURED simulates 30,000 work histories that represent the nonother immigration population (LEGPOP). These histories are constructed from past and 

projected cover worker rates of the non-other immigration population, median earnings, and 

amounts required for crediting QC. 

The equations for this subprocess are given below: 

FPRO = FPRO(·) (3.1.1)

DPRO = DPRO(·) (3.1.2)

FINPOP = FPRO * SSAPOP (3.1.3)

DINPOP = DPRO * SSAPOP (3.1.4)

3.1.b. Input Data

All data are updated annually, except those that are noted.

Long-Range OCACT Data

Demography 

• Social Security area population as end of year (1940 – 2095) by age (0 -100, age 100 

including age 100 and older), marital status (single, married, widowed, divorced) and 

sex (M, F). (Workflow 3.a)

• “Other immigrant” population as end of year (1963 – 2095) by age (0 -100, age 100 

including age 100 and older) and sex (M, F). (Workflow 3.c)

• Number of new “net legal immigrants” (legal immigrants – estimated legal 
180

emigrants) entering the Social Security area each year (1940 – 2095) by age (14 – 84) 

and sex (M, F). (Workflow 3.d)

• The population granted deferred action for childhood arrivals (DACAs) as end of year 

(2012-2095) by age (0 -100, age 100 including age 100 and older) and sex (M, F). 

(Workflow 3.e)

• The population granted deferred action for parental arrivals (DAPAs) as end of year 

(2014-2095) by age (0 -100, age 100 including age 100 and older) and sex (M, F). 

(Workflow 3.f)

• The population that attain deferred action for childhood arrivals status (DACAATT)

as beginning of year (2012-2095) by age (-1-100, age 100 including age 100 and 

older) and sex (M, F). (Workflow 3.g)

• The population that attain deferred action for parental arrivals status (DAPAATT) as 

beginning of year (2014-2095) by age (-1-100, age 100 including age 100 and older) 

and sex (M, F). (Workflow 3.h)

Economics

• Annual estimates of covered workers posted to the Master Earnings File (MEF) by 

sex (M, F) and age (0 – 100) for years (1937 – 2095). (Workflow 3.b)

• Annual projection (2012 – 2095) of average wage index and median covered earnings.

(Workflow 3.j)

• “Other immigrant” workers with earnings posted to the (MEF) by sex (M, F), age (16 –

100), and for years (1964 – 2095). (Workflow 3.k)

Beneficiaries

• Disabled-worker beneficiaries at year end (2014 – 2095) by age (15 – 66), sex (M, F) 

and duration (0 – 10, duration 10 including duration 10 and above) from the previous 

year’s Trustees Report. These data are read in from files that are generated annually 

from the Beneficiaries/DISABILITY (#3.2) area. (Workflow 3.i)

Short-Range OCACT data

• FINPOP by age (14 – 95, age 95 including age 95 and older) and sex (M, F) from the 

end of year 1969 to the end of Short-Range projection period (2025) (EOY 1969-

2030 is provided). (Workflow 2.f)

• DINPOP by age (15 – 66) and sex (M, F) from the end of year 1969 to the end of 

Short-Range projection period (2025) (EOY 1969-2030 is provided). (Workflow 2.g) 

Other input data

• Historical series of annual median earnings of covered workers by age group (<20, 

20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, 

80-84) and sex (M, F) for years 1937-2012. Data are updated using the CWHS file 

from the mainframe. (Workflow 2.b) 

• Number of disabled workers by age (20-69) and sex (M, F) for years 1958-2014. 
181

Ages 66-69 are zeros. Data are updated using the data from the historical disability 

file “wkrben”. (Workflow 2.e) 

• The amount required for crediting one quarter of coverage for years 1937-2012 from 

an OCACT web site. (Workflow 2.d) 

• Historical series of annual median earnings of all covered workers for years 1937-

2012. Data are updated using the data in the most recent Social Security Annual 

Statistical Supplement Table 4.B6. (Workflow 2.c and 2.a) 

• The number of all covered workers (wage/salary workers, self-employed workers) by 

sex and amount of earnings for 2012 in the most recent Social Security Annual 

Statistical Supplement Table 4.B7 & 4.B9. These are used to produce the input data 

for the distribution of earnings (FRACMOD.f90). (Workflow 2.a) (No Change for 

the 2016 TR)

• ANNUAL factor (comparability factor between quarterly and annual reporting of 

earnings) by age (13-84) and sex (M, F) for years prior to 1978. (Workflow 4.d) (No 

Change for the 2016 TR)

• SLCT factor (adjustment factor to bring simulated fully insured rate in line with 

historical fully insured rate) by age (13-84) and sex (M, F). These data were updated 

for the 2016 TR. (Workflow 4.b) 

• SRCH factor (adjustment factor to bring simulated fully insured rate in line with 

historical fully insured rate) by age (13-84) and sex (M, F). These data were updated 

for the 2016 TR. (Workflow 4.c) 

• DIADJ factor (adjustment factor to bring simulated disability insured rate in line with 

historical disability insured rate) by age (13-69) and sex (M, F). These data were 

updated for the 2016 TR. (Workflow 4.e) 

3.1.c. Development of Output

Equation 3.1.1 & 3.1.2 -

Determining the QC distribution 

There are three variables playing important roles in the simulation process starting from age 13 

through 84 of a birth cohort by sex. They include historical and projected covered worker rates

of the non-other population1 by age and sex, the amounts required for crediting QC, and a 

cumulative worker distribution by earnings level.

Covered worker rates of the non-other population (CPRO) are the ratio of the non-other covered 

workers to the non-other Social Security area population. A non-other population is its total 

population minus its other immigrant population. Historical and projected (total and other 

immigrant) numbers of covered workers and the Social Security area population, which are 

provided by the Economics and Demography sections respectively, are used to calculate the rates

for ages 13 through 84. 

 1 The insured model treats the DACA and DAPA population (those granted deferred action) like legal permanent 

resident immigrants.
182

The law specifies the amount of earnings needed to earn one QC for each year of the historical 

period. Its projection assumes the same growth rate as the Social Security average wage index.

The cumulative worker distribution by earnings level is ‘FRAC’. It is a function of covered 

earnings relative to median earnings. For a given ratio of covered earnings relative to median 

earnings, FRAC returns the percentage of covered workers whose earnings relative to median 

earnings are less than the given ratio. It is constructed based on the latest historical data. It is 

used for each age and sex and is assumed to remain constant throughout the projection period. 

The program uses FRAC to estimate the percentage of covered workers that earn 0, 1, 2, 3 or 4 

QC in a given year. Thus, for a particular age and sex, the percentage of covered workers 

earning at least n QC is defined as: 

QCDist = 1 – FRAC n QC amount *

median earnings

 

   

, for n = 1, 2, 3, 4

 where median earnings is for that age and sex.

Simulation process – assigning QC to records

Once the QCDist is known, the simulation process begins with 30,000 records for each sex and 

birth cohort. Starting with the QC distribution at age 13, INSURED randomly assigns a number 

of QC (1, 2, 3 or 4) to these records based on QCDist. 

For ages 14 to 84, INSURED begins the simulation process by randomly selecting records to 

represent new net legal immigrants and the other immigrant population that attain DACA or 

DAPA status from the covered worker portion of 30,000 records. For each record, a number of 

QC (0, 1, 2, 3 or 4) is assigned on a uniform basis. Once a record is assigned a number of QC, 

INSURED nullifies the previous earnings of the record. In the initial years of eligibility for 

DACAs (2013 and 2017-2018) and DAPAs (2017-2018), we assume that 10 percent of DACAs 

and 15 percent of DAPAs will retain covered earnings made prior to attaining legal status. We 

assume a higher rate for DAPAs since they are older and more likely to have been working.

After the records for new immigrants are selected, the rest of the records for ages 14 to 84 are 

either non-covered workers or covered workers. The total number of records assigned as noncovered workers is set equal to (1-covered worker rate) * 30,000. These records receive no QC. 

To identify records as non-covered workers, INSURED uses two parameters (SRCH, SLCT), 

which vary by age and sex. 

SRCH sets a limit on the number of consecutive records to be searched for a non-covered 

worker. In general, the younger age groups have lower SRCH values. SLCT is the number of 

consecutive prior years in which no QC were earned that is required in order for a simulated 

record to be assigned as a non-covered worker. Lower SLCT values are set for the very young 

age groups. Sensitivity analyses show that insured percentages are negatively correlated with 

these two parameters. When the female covered worker rates approach the male rates, the 

female SRCH and SLCT values are graded toward the male values2

.

 2 This occurs when the female covered worker rate is greater than 80 percent of the male rate. When the female rate 
183

For each sex and birth cohort, the simulation process of assigning records as non-covered 

workers uses the following approach. This approach is repeated until the targeted number of 

non-covered workers is achieved.

1. One of the records, which is designated as one for legal immigrants, is randomly 

selected as the starting record.

2. Beginning with the starting record, each record is examined until a record that 

matches the SLCT criterion is found.

3. However, if the number of records examined equals the value of SRCH and no 

record matches the SLCT criterion, then the record closest to the SLCT criterion is 

assigned no QC as a non-covered worker.

Initially, values for SRCH and SLCT are the same as those used in the prior Trustees Report. 

Adjustments to these values are only made when the results are not consistent with historical 

data.

The final step of the simulation process is to use QCDist to randomly assign QC of 0, 1, 2, 3 or 4 

to the remaining covered worker records, which are not new net legal immigrants, for ages 14-

84.

Determining Insured Status

Once the simulation process is complete, the insured status for each record at any age can be 

determined based on the total QC assigned up to that age. The simulated non-other fully insured 

percentage (FSIM_LEG) is calculated as the percentage of the 30,000 simulated records meeting 

the QC requirements for insured status. The same calculation is applied to the disability-insured 

percentage (DSIM_LEG). 

For each sex and cohort, FSIM_LEG is determined at ages 13 to 84. DSIM_LEG is determined 

at ages 13 to 69.

An adjustment, DINADD, is made to DSIM_LEG. This additive adjustment accounts for 

workers who fail to meet the requirement for disability-insured status solely because of having 

no earnings while receiving disability benefits. INSURED assumes that workers who have been 

on the disability rolls for more than 3 years would be in this situation3

. Thus, DINADD is 

# of workers on the disability rolls morethan3 years

Social Security Area population by age, sex, and cohort.

 

is equal to or greater than the male rate, the female SLCT and SRCH parameters are set equal to the male 

parameters. The parameters are linearly interpolated when the female covered worker rate is between 80 and 100 

percent of the male rate.

3 Those who are on the rolls for less than 4 years are assumed to meet the requirement for disability-insured status 

based on their earnings histories.
184

A small proportion of the other immigrant population, OTLPOP, is added to calculate the 

simulated fully insured rate of the Social Security Area population, FSIM. We assume that other 

immigrants who have their earnings posted to the MEF are three-fourths as likely to be insured

as the non-other population. We project FSIM as

SSAPRO

FSIM _ LEG *(LEGPOP + ALPHA*(CW _ OTHER /CPRO))

by age, sex, and cohort, where ALPHA is equal to 0.75.

Hence, the simulated fully insured rate of the other immigrant population FSIM _OTL is

OTLPOP

FSIM _ LEG * ALPHA*CW _ OTHER /CPRO by age, sex, and cohort.

FSIM_LEG is assumed to remain the same beyond age 84. FSIM_OTL is assumed to remain the 

same beyond age 69. For ages 70 and older, FSIM is projected by multiplying the non-other and 

other fully insured rates to their respective populations and dividing the sum by the Social 

Security Area population.

DSIM and DSIM_OTL are projected in a similar manner by using DSIM_LEG. If the simulated

results for DSIM are not consistent with historical data, an additional age-sex-specific additive 

adjustment (DIADJ) is used to bring the simulated results in line with the historical estimates. 

Finally, incorporation of Short-Range projections produces FPRO and DPRO. For the first 10 

years, FPRO and DPRO are calculated by dividing the Short-Range estimates by the Social 

Security area population. The difference in terms of the percentage between the Long-Range 

(FSIM and DSIM) and Short-Range projections at the end of 10th year is linearly phased out 

during the next ten years by cohort and sex. The Long-Range projections are assumed thereafter.

Number of Fully Insured and Disability Insured Workers

The numbers of Fully Insured and Disability Insured workers are obtained by applying FPRO 

and DPRO, respectively, to the Social Security area population. The result is an estimate of the 

number of people that are fully insured (FINPOP) and disability insured (DINPOP) by single 

year of age and sex, respectively. For a given age and sex, the proportion of the Social Security 

area population that is insured (FPRO) is assumed to be the same for each marital status. 
185

DISABILITY 

3.2.a. Overview

The Social Security Administration pays monthly disability benefits to disability-insured workers 

who meet the definition of “disability”. If they meet certain requirements, spouses and children 

of disabled-worker beneficiaries may also receive monthly benefits. 

DISABILITY projects the number of disabled-worker beneficiaries in current-payment status 

(DIB) at the end of each year by age at entitlement, sex, and duration from entitlement. We base 

the number of DIB at the end of each year on the number of disabled-worker beneficiaries who 

are currently entitled to benefits (CE). We calculate the number of CE at the end of year by 

adding the number of newly entitled CE (New Entitlements) during the year and subtracting the 

number of CE who leave the disability rolls (Exits) during the year to the number of CE at the 

end of the prior year. Disabled-worker beneficiaries who leave the disability rolls (Exits) do so 

by recovering from disabilities (Recoveries), by dying (Deaths), or by converting to retired 

worker status (Conversions). A disabled-worker beneficiary converts to retired worker status 

upon reaching Normal Retirement Age (NRA), the age at which a person first becomes entitled 

to unreduced retirement benefit.

DISABILITY also projects the number of future dependent beneficiaries of DIB by category, 

age, and sex. The six categories are minor child, student child, disabled adult child, young

spouse, married aged spouse and divorced aged spouse. We generate the numbers of dependent 

beneficiaries of DIB by multiplying the relevant subset of the SSA area population (Exposures) 

by a series of probabilities that relate to the regulations and requirements for obtaining benefits 

(Linkages).

New Entitlements(year) = ExposureBOY × Incidence Rate(year) (3.2.1)

 where BOY is beginning of year.

Exits(year) = Recoveries(year) + Deaths(year) + Conversions(year) (3.2.2)

 where Recoveries(year) = CEBOY × Recovery Rate(year) 

 where Deaths(year) = CEBOY × Death Rate(year).

CEEOY = CEEOY-1 + New Entitlements (year) – Exits(year), (3.2.3)

 where EOY is end of year, EOY-1 is end of prior year.

Dependent Beneficiaries of DIB EOY = Exposures EOY × Linkages EOY (3.2.4)

 

3.2.b. Input Data

Trustees Assumptions

Each year, the Trustees set the assumption for the ultimate incidence rates and the ultimate 

recovery rates for the twentieth year of the projection period. The following chart shows our 

“target” incidence rates by age group and sex. We further adjust these rates with a 0.6% load for 
186

the removal of closure of the record and a 0.8% discount for the physician review requirement 

mandated by the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015.

Using a standard population of disability insured who are not in current pay as of December 

1999, the age-sex-adjusted incidence rate (on an entitlement rate basis) for the 2016 Trustees 

Report is 5.79 per 1,000. The new physician requirement reduced this rate from the 2015 

Trustees Report rate of 5.84 per 1,000. Using a standard population of DIBs as of December 

1999, the age-sex-adjusted recovery rate for the 2016 Trustees Report is 9.3 per 1,000. 

Long-Range OCACT Data

All data is updated annually except those noted otherwise. Population data are as of December 

31. We assume data as of December 31 of year z-1 is equal to data as of January 1 of year z. 

Workflow reference is bolded in parenthesis after each item.

Demography

• Social Security area population by age, sex, and marital status1 (dimensioned 

(0:100,1:2,1:4)) for years 1970-2095. (3a)

• Probabilities of death by sex, age and year (1:2,15:148,2014:2095). (3b)

• Total children by sex of parent, age of parent and age of child (dimensioned 

(1:2,19:71,0:18)) for years 1970-2095. (3c)

• Total married lives by age of husband crossed with age of wife (dimensioned 

(14:100,14:100)) for years 1970-2095. (3d)

• Average number of children under 18 per couple with children by age group (<25, 25-

29,...,60-64) of head of household (dimensioned (1:9)) for years 1970-2095. (3e)

Economics

• Unemployment rates by age group (16-19, 20-24,...,60-64), sex and year (1990:2027).

(3h)

Beneficiaries

INSURED subprocess #3.1

• Disability-insured population by age, sex and year (15:69,1:2,1969:2095) from the 

2016 Trustees Report. (3g)

• Disability-insured population by age, sex and year (15:69,1:2,1969:2095) from the 

2015 Trustees Report. (2j)

• Fully insured population by age, sex and marital status (14:95,1:2,1:4) for years 1970-

2095. (3f)

2015 Trustees Report DISABILITY subprocess #3.2

 1 Single, married, widowed, divorced.

Target Incidence Rates by Age Group

<20 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 

Male 2.46 2.58 1.66 2.49 3.34 4.52 5.96 9.89 15.72 19.02 9.00 Female 1.90 2.02 1.62 2.82 3.54 4.78 6.39 10.10 14.16 14.72 8.34 

Age Group
187

• Death rate projection factors from the 2015 Trustees Report by age group (15-19,20-

24,...,60-64), sex and year (1:2,1:10,2015:2095). (3i)

• Recovery rate projection factors and recovery rates from the 2015 Trustees Report by 

age group (15-19,20-24,...,60-64), sex and year (1:2,1:10,2015:2095) and 

(1:2,1:10,1970:2095), respectively. (3j) and (3k)

Other input data

We update only the most recent year data annually for this category except as noted otherwise 

below:

• The December 2015 data from the Master Beneficiary Record (MBR) containing the 

number of DIB by duration of entitlement, age of entitlement, sex and time of year 

(BOY or EOY) (0:55,15:66,1:2,1:2). (2b)

• December 2015 and December 2014 data from the MBR containing the number of 

disabled workers in current-payment status by age, sex and year 

(15:66,1:2,1969:2015). (2a) and (2j)

• December 2015 data from the MBR containing the number of disabled workers in 

withheld or suspended status by age, sex and year (15:66,1:2,1969:2015). (2a) 

• December data from the MBR containing the number of dependent beneficiaries by 

age, sex of the account holder, and year for the following beneficiary categories. (2a)

1) Minor child (0:17,1:2,1970:2015) 

2) Student child (18:21,1:2,1970:2015)

3) Disabled adult child (age group1:92

,1:2,1970:2015)

4) Young spouse (19:64,1:2,1970:2015) 

5) Married aged spouse (62:100,1:2,1970:2015) 

6) Divorced aged spouse (62:100,1:2,1970:2015)

 We also read totals for each category.

• December data from the MBR containing the number of DIB awards by age, sex and 

year (15:67,1:2,1970:2015). (2c)

• December data from the MBR containing (1) the number of DIB total terminations 

(recoveries and deaths) and (2) the number of conversions3. These data are by sex 

and year (1:2,1970:2015). (2d)

• December data from the MBR containing the number of DIB deaths by age, sex and 

year (15:67,1:2,1975:2015). (2d)

• December data from the MBR containing the number of estimated DIB recoveries by 

age, sex and year (15:67,1:2,1975:2015). (2d)

• December data from the MBR containing the number of old-age beneficiaries who at 

some point in time were converted to retired worker status. This data is by age, sex

and year: (65:95+,1:2,1970:2015) (2b)

• December data from the MBR containing the number of DIB entitled to the Hospital 

Insurance portion of Medicare by age group (<25,25-29,...,60-64,65+), sex and year 

 2 Age groups 1 through 9 are 18-19, 20-24, 25-29,..., 55-59. 3 Conversions are DIB beneficiaries who become eligible for old-age benefits due to reaching the normal retirement 

age.
188

(2:11,1:2,1973:2015). This file is not used for the SOSI. (2e)

• December data from the MBR containing the number of DIB awards by duration, 

age, sex and year (0:5,0:65,1:2,1993:2014). 2014 Awards were retrieved for this 

year’s TR, 1993-2013 Awards have not been updated. (2j)

• Retroactive factors4 by year (1969:2014). These values are estimated using OCACT 

beneficiary data. This file is not used for the SOSI. (2h)

All numbers in the following categories are updated annually unless otherwise noted.

• Average incidence rates by age and sex (15:65,1:2) for the base period 2000-2009

based on awards data from 2000-2014 (also known as the base incidence rates). We 

update these values when time and data are available. Note that rates for ages 60 

through NRA are from the 2011 TR. (2j)

• Probability of death for DIB’s – in a multiple-decrement environment by duration, 

age and sex (0:10,15:65,1:2) for the base period 2006-2010. These numbers (also 

known as the base probabilities of death) are from Actuarial Study No. 123. We 

update these values when time and data are available. (2f)

• Probability of recovery for DIB’s – in a multiple-decrement environment by duration, 

age and sex (0:10,15:65,1:2) for the base period 2006-2010. These numbers (also 

known as the base probabilities of recovery) are from Actuarial Study No. 123. We 

update these values when time and data are available. (2g)

• Initial Incurred but not reported (IBNR)5 factors by duration, age and sex (0:10, 15: 

69, 1:2) based on 2002 entitlements (awards data from 2002-2007). (2j) (Not 

Updated)

• Ultimate IBNR factors by duration, age and sex (0:10, 15:69, 1:2) based on 2000-

2009 entitlements (awards data from 2000-2014). We update these values when time 

and data are available. The IBNR calculation linearly grades between the initial and 

ultimate IBNR factors during the ten years from 2008-2017. The ultimate IBNR 

factor table applies for all years after 2017. (2j)

• For each year 2000-2105, (1) the Normal Retirement Age (NRA), (2) the proportion 

of DIBs who stay on the DI roll for that age, and (3) the proportion of DIBs who 

convert to an old-age benefit during that year for that age. We update these values 

only when there is a change in the NRA or in the present law. (2k)

• The following linkages for the calculations of auxiliary beneficiaries; the probability 

that student is in an eligible school, the probability that adult child is disabled, the 

probability that beneficiary is not subject to the earnings test, and the probability that 

beneficiary was married 10 or more years are estimated and are updated when time 

and data are available. (4a)

• Short-Range/Long-Range adjustment (APROJ) factors by auxiliary beneficiary 

category (1:7) for years 2016-2095. These seven categories are; minor child, student 

child, disabled adult child, young wife, young husband, age wife and aged husband. 

 4 Retroactive factors for each calendar year are the ratio of the total monthly payments to DIBs to the monthly DIBs 

in current payment status times the average DIB monthly benefit. 5 IBNR factors reflect the proportion of DIBs entitled to benefits who have been awarded since the year of their 

entitlement.
189

We calculate these values by comparing Short-Range and Long- Range numbers for 

auxiliary beneficiaries. For the 2016 Trustees Report, these factors also include 

adjustments to aged-spouses and disabled adult children because of demographic 

assumption changes (2i)

• IPROJG, DPROJG and RPROJG adjustment factors used to adjust incidence, death 

and recovery rates to reconcile between the long-range model and the short-range 

model. IPROJG (1:11, 2, 2016-2095) and DPROJG (1:10, 2, 2016-2095) adjustment 

factors are by age group, sex and year. RPROJG (2, 2016-2025) adjustment factors 

are by sex and year. (2l),(4c), and (4h) 

• Ultimate RPROJG values by sex and age group (1:2, 1:10) calculated to reach a target 

value. We update these values when the probabilities of recovery for DIB’s are 

updated. (4c)

3.2.c. Development of Output

Equation 3.2.1 – New Entitlements

We calculate new entitlements by multiplying age-sex-specific incidence rates to the exposed 

population at the beginning of the year. The exposed population is the disability-insured 

population less the currently entitled population. We calculate future age-sex-specific incidence 

rates by multiplying the base incidence rates by the incidence rate projection factors (IPROJGs). 

For the first ten years of the projection (short-range period), IPROJGs by 5-year age group and 

sex are obtained by using regression equations with the change in unemployment in the two prior 

years as the independent variables. We describe the regression equations in detail in Appendix 

3.2-1. Then, we run the IPROJGs through the main model and analyze the resulting incidence 

rates by age group and sex. We adjust the IPROJGs by age and sex to reach “target” incidence 

rates in the twentieth year of the projection period. These “target” incidence rates were 

determined based on a recent review of historical and projected award rates by age group and 

sex. For projection periods between the tenth and twentieth years, we linearly interpolate the 

IPROJGs between the ultimate IPROJGs values and the IPROJGs values at the end of shortrange period. Additional adjustments to the IPROJGs during the short-range period may be

necessary for reconciliation between the long-range model and the short-range model. For the 

2016 Trustees Report, we made IPROJG adjustments in the short-range period to better project 

the higher claims expected due to the planned hiring of more Administrative Law Judges (ALJs) 

and the growing backlog of pending ALJ claims.

Equation 3.2.2 – Exits

The long-range model projects three types of exits from the disability rolls; death, recovery and 

conversion to an old-age beneficiary upon reaching normal retirement age (NRA). Deaths and 

recoveries are projected by multiplying the beginning currently entitled population by the 

probabilities of death only and recovery only, ( (d ) qx ) and ( (r) qx ), respectively. Projected ( (d ) qx ) 

and ( (r) qx ) by age, sex, and duration are calculated by multiplying the base probabilities by the 

respective projection factors by age group and sex for that year.
190

For the first ten years, we derive the recovery projection factors (RPROJGs) by age group and 

sex from linear interpolation between an estimated starting level for the RPROJGs and an 

estimated tenth-year projection target level for the RPROJGs. For each age group and sex, we 

calculate the starting RPROJGs the following way:

 RPROJGTR16

(2015) = RPROJGTR15 (2015) × actual recovery rate(2015) / estimated 

 recovery rate TR15(2015)

Because there is no apparent upward or downward trend, we use the average recovery rates for 

the last ten historical years as the target values for the 10th year (2025). Then, for each age group 

and sex, we calculate the tenth year’s RPROJGs as follows:

 RPROJGTR16(2025) = RPROJGTR16 (2015) ×target value recovery rate(2025) / 

 actual recovery rate(2015)

For the second 10 years of the projection period, we linearly interpolate between the ultimate 

RPROJG value and the RPROJG value at the end of short-range period (2025). We assume 

attainment of ultimate recovery rates in the twentieth year of the projection period. Ultimate 

recovery rates by age group and sex are determined by analyzing historical recovery rates. We 

may make additional adjustments to the RPROJGs to reconcile with the short-range model. 

For the first year of the projection period, the death projection factors (DPROJGs) by age group 

and sex are determined so that they achieve a targeted death rate. The targeted death rate is 

determined by fitting an exponential curve to historical death rates for DIBs by age group and 

sex (see Appendix 3.2-1). For the rest of the projection period, we assume the DPROJGs

improve at the same rate as the general population for that age group and sex. We calculate the 

DPROJGs for each year by 5-year age group and sex the following way: 

DPROJG(year) = DPROJG(year-1)

x 4 year 1999

age age age x

qx DIB

+

=

 

× ×     ∑ / 

x 4 year 1 1999

age age age x

qx DIB

+ −

=

    ×

  ∑

We may make additional adjustments to the DPROJGs to reconcile with the short-range model.

Equation 3.2.3 – Disabled-Worker Beneficiaries

The projection begins with the latest data available from the mainframe of disabled-worker 

beneficiaries in current-payment status. This data is from a 100 percent sample of the Master 

Beneficiary Record (MBR) at the end of the year. We split up disabled-worker beneficiaries by 

age at entitlement, sex and duration of entitlement. We convert this population to a currently 

entitled population by dividing each age, sex and duration cell by the appropriate duration-agesex-year-specific IBNR factor. An iterative process begins with new entitlements added to and 

exits subtracted from the previous year’s currently entitled population to get the following year’s 

currently entitled population with advancement of duration within the age of entitlement. We 

reduce this currently entitled population by multiplying by the appropriate duration-age-sexyear-specific IBNR factor. The result is the following year’s disabled-worker beneficiaries in 

current-payment status. The process repeats over each sex, age of entitlement and duration of 
191

entitlement throughout the projection period.

Equation 3.2.4 – Dependent Beneficiary of Disabled Workers

There are six dependent-beneficiary categories; minor child, student child, disabled adult child, 

young spouse, married aged spouse and divorced aged spouse. We disaggregate projections by 

age of the beneficiary and sex of the account holder. We detail below the linkages and exposures 

used in each category of dependent beneficiaries. 

Minor Child

Exposure: Single SSA population by single ages 0-17

Linkages: pMCAGA = Probability that parent is under NRA

pMCDIA = Probability that parent is disability insured given 

 that the parent is under NRA

pMCDPA = Probability that disability insured parent under 

 NRA is disabled

MCRES = Residual Factor

Student Child

Exposure: Single SSA population by single ages 18-19

Linkages: pSCAGA = Probability that parent is under NRA

pSCDIA = Probability that parent is disability insured given 

 that the parent is under NRA

pSCDPA = Probability that disability insured parent under 

 NRA is disabled

pSCDPC = Probability that student is in an eligible school

SCRES = Residual Factor

Disabled Adult Child

Exposure: Single SSA population by age groups 18-19, 20-24, 25-29,

 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59

Linkages: pDCAGA = Probability that parent is under NRA

pDCDIA = Probability that parent is disability insured given 

 that the parent is under NRA

pDCDPA = Probability that disability insured parent under 

 NRA is disabled

pDCDPC = Probability that adult child is disabled

DCRES = Residual Factor

Young Spouse 

Exposure:Married SSA population by sex and by single ages 20-64 

Linkages: pYSAGA = Probability that account holder is under NRA

pYSDIA = Probability that account holder is disability 

 insured given that the account holder is under 

 NRA

pYSDPA = Probability that disability insured account holder 

 under NRA is disabled

pYSETB = Probability that young spouse is not subject to
192

 earnings test 

pYSMCB = Probability that young spouse has a minor child

 beneficiary in his/her care

pYSDCB = Probability that young spouse has a disabled child 

 beneficiary in his/her care 

YSRES = Residual Factor

Married Aged Spouse 

Exposure:Married SSA population by sex and by single ages 62-100

Linkages: pMSAGA = Probability that account holder is under NRA

pMSDIA = Probability that account holder is disability 

 insured given that the account holder is under 

 NRA

pMSDPA = Probability that disability insured account holder 

 under NRA is disabled

pMSFIB = Probability that beneficiary is not insured

MSRES = Residual Factor

Divorced Aged Spouse 

Exposure:Divorced SSA population by sex and by single ages 62-100

Linkages: pDSDEA = Probability that account holder is living

pDSAGA = Probability that account holder is under NRA

pDSDIA = Probability that account holder is disability 

 insured given that the account holder is under 

 NRA

pDSDPA = Probability that disability insured account holder 

 under NRA is disabled

pDSFIB = Probability that beneficiary is not insured

pDSDMB = Probability that beneficiary was married 10 or

 more years

We estimate the residual factors for each of the dependent categories using a 10-year Least 

Squares regression formula. We then hold these residual factor values constant for the duration 

of the long-range period. If the 10-year Least Squares method results in a negative residual 

factor, we hold the last historical residual factor instead.

We develop factors for a dependent beneficiary category to match short-range results during the 

first 10 years of the projection period. We phase these factors out linearly over the second ten 

years of the projection period.

Appendix: 3.2-1

The following information provides details about the regression equations used in determining 

incidence rates and IPROJG values by age group and sex for the first ten years of the projection 

period.

Male

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t)-Unemp Rate(t-1) for ages 16-19
193

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t-1)-Unemp Rate(t-2) for ages 16-19

Dependent Variable: 15-19 incidence rates

Observation Period: 1994-2012

Adjusted R square: 0.10285531

Standard Deviation: 0.57381920

Coefficient Intercept: 2.26564896

Coefficient Slope1: 0.10592411

Coefficient Slope2: 0.03810985

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t)-Unemp Rate(t-1) for ages 20-24

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t-1)-Unemp Rate(t-2) for ages 20-24

Dependent Variable: 20-24 incidence rates

Observation Period: 1994-2012

Adjusted R square: 0.28384642

Standard Deviation: 0.37775655

Coefficient Intercept: 2.25404835

Coefficient Slope1: 0.11947935

Coefficient Slope2: 0.06076160

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t)-Unemp Rate(t-1) for ages 25-29

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t-1)-Unemp Rate(t-2) for ages 25-29

Dependent Variable: 25-29 incidence rates

Observation Period: 1994-2012

Adjusted R square: 0.61414473

Standard Deviation: 0.15873244

Coefficient Intercept: 2.01407262

Coefficient Slope1: 0.08971943

Coefficient Slope2: 0.08165595

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t)-Unemp Rate(t-1) for ages 30-34

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t-1)-Unemp Rate(t-2) for ages 30-34

Dependent Variable: 30-34 incidence rates

Observation Period: 1994-2012

Adjusted R square: 0.16129961

Standard Deviation: 0.21323977

Coefficient Intercept: 2.50960268

Coefficient Slope1: 0.05582442

Coefficient Slope2: 0.04984552

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t)-Unemp Rate(t-1) for ages 35-39

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t-1)-Unemp Rate(t-2) for ages 35-39
194

Dependent Variable: 35-39 incidence rates

Observation Period: 1994-2012

Adjusted R square: 0.25199638

Standard Deviation: 0.25810193

Coefficient Intercept: 3.29309120

Coefficient Slope1: 0.09253364

Coefficient Slope2: 0.08398824

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t)-Unemp Rate(t-1) for ages 40-44

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t-1)-Unemp Rate(t-2) for ages 40-44

Dependent Variable: 40-44 incidence rates

Observation Period: 1994-2012

Adjusted R square: 0.45850494

Standard Deviation: 0.26583255

Coefficient Intercept: 4.38675576

Coefficient Slope1: 0.15219498

Coefficient Slope2: 0.11955849

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t)-Unemp Rate(t-1) for ages 45-49

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t-1)-Unemp Rate(t-2) for ages 45-49

Dependent Variable: 45-49 incidence rates

Observation Period: 1994-2012

Adjusted R square: 0.57467043

Standard Deviation: 0.29758276

Coefficient Intercept: 5.91429408

Coefficient Slope1: 0.19279725

Coefficient Slope2: 0.19066446

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t)-Unemp Rate(t-1) for ages 50-54 

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t-1)-Unemp Rate(t-2) for ages 50-54 

Dependent Variable: 50-54 incidence rates

Observation Period: 1994-2012

Adjusted R square: 0.38894650

Standard Deviation: 0.71152128

Coefficient Intercept: 9.78110701

Coefficient Slope1: 0.18205677

Coefficient Slope2: 0.44231375

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t)-Unemp Rate(t-1) for ages 55-59

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t-1)-Unemp Rate(t-2) for ages 55-59

Dependent Variable: 55-59 incidence rates
195

Observation Period: 1994-2012

Adjusted R square: 0.21737183

Standard Deviation: 0.97192205

Coefficient Intercept: 15.93692204

Coefficient Slope1: 0.21292470

Coefficient Slope2: 0.50090579

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t)-Unemp Rate(t-1) for ages 60-64

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t-1)-Unemp Rate(t-2) for ages 60-64

Dependent Variable: 60-64 incidence rates

Observation Period: 1994-2012

Adjusted R square: 0.09481495

Standard Deviation: 0.80332283

Coefficient Intercept: 16.58265440

Coefficient Slope1: 0.16853055

Coefficient Slope2: 0.25477139

Female

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t)-Unemp Rate(t-1) for ages 16-19

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t-1)-Unemp Rate(t-2) for ages 16-19

Dependent Variable: 15-19 incidence rates

Observation Period: 1994-2012

Adjusted R square: 0.09271622

Standard Deviation: 0.38678032

Coefficient Intercept: 1.55310909

Coefficient Slope1: 0.08459404

Coefficient Slope2: 0.04389858

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t)-Unemp Rate(t-1) for ages 20-24

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t-1)-Unemp Rate(t-2) for ages 20-24

Dependent Variable: 20-24 incidence rates

Observation Period: 1994-2012

Adjusted R square: 0.18699211

Standard Deviation: 0.31645134

Coefficient Intercept: 1.67692223

Coefficient Slope1: 0.14156733

Coefficient Slope2: 0.04837250

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t)-Unemp Rate(t-1) for ages 25-29

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t-1)-Unemp Rate(t-2) for ages 25-29

Dependent Variable: 25-29 incidence rates
196

Observation Period: 1994-2012

Adjusted R square: 0.42165067

Standard Deviation: 0.22629668

Coefficient Intercept: 1.86090404

Coefficient Slope1: 0.16570133

Coefficient Slope2: 0.08418915

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t)-Unemp Rate(t-1) for ages 30-34

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t-1)-Unemp Rate(t-2) for ages 30-34

Dependent Variable: 30-34 incidence rates

Observation Period: 1994-2012

Adjusted R square: 0.49369795

Standard Deviation: 0.21871776

Coefficient Intercept: 2.61457070

Coefficient Slope1: 0.16256661

Coefficient Slope2: 0.16009397

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t)-Unemp Rate(t-1) for ages 35-39

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t-1)-Unemp Rate(t-2) for ages 35-39

Dependent Variable: 35-39 incidence rates

Observation Period: 1994-2012

Adjusted R square: 0.51774106

Standard Deviation: 0.26500379

Coefficient Intercept: 3.69748652

Coefficient Slope1: 0.24507296

Coefficient Slope2: 0.18191224

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t)-Unemp Rate(t-1) for ages 40-44

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t-1)-Unemp Rate(t-2) for ages 40-44

Dependent Variable: 40-44 incidence rates

Observation Period: 1994-2012

Adjusted R square: 0.33879496

Standard Deviation: 0.38126950

Coefficient Intercept: 5.01562760

Coefficient Slope1: 0.24180929

Coefficient Slope2: 0.23030862

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t)-Unemp Rate(t-1) for ages 45-49

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t-1)-Unemp Rate(t-2) for ages 45-49

Dependent Variable: 45-49 incidence rates

Observation Period: 1994-2012
197

Adjusted R square: 0.60466765

Standard Deviation: 0.31580899

Coefficient Intercept: 6.50091729

Coefficient Slope1: 0.35195573

Coefficient Slope2: 0.36075093

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t)-Unemp Rate(t-1) for ages 50-54 

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t-1)-Unemp Rate(t-2) for ages 50-54 

Dependent Variable: 50-54 incidence rates

Observation Period: 1994-2012

Adjusted R square: 0.50948702

Standard Deviation: 0.51007087

Coefficient Intercept: 10.09608301

Coefficient Slope1: 0.26638909

Coefficient Slope2: 0.64403697

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t)-Unemp Rate(t-1) for ages 55-59

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t-1)-Unemp Rate(t-2) for ages 55-59

Dependent Variable: 55-59 incidence rates

Observation Period: 1994-2012

Adjusted R square: 0.18540396

Standard Deviation: 0.66371367

Coefficient Intercept: 14.52275485

Coefficient Slope1: -0.02600911

Coefficient Slope2: 0.63080228

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t)-Unemp Rate(t-1) for ages 60-64

Independent Variable: Unemp Rate(t-1)-Unemp Rate(t-2) for ages 60-64

Dependent Variable: 60-64 incidence rates

Observation Period: 1994-2012

Adjusted R square: 0.28209765

Standard Deviation: 0.46761182

Coefficient Intercept: 13.09340058

Coefficient Slope1: 0.17638034

Coefficient Slope2: 0.36960010

The following information provides details about the exponentially fitted equations used in 

determining death rates by age group and sex for the first year of the projection period.

Male

Independent Variable: Year
198

Independent Variable: 15-19 death rates

Observation Period: 2006-2015

Adjusted R square: -0.11860

Standard Deviation: 0.95019

Coefficient Intercept: 47.36040

Coefficient Slope1: -0.02238

Independent Variable: Year

Independent Variable: 20-24 death rates

Observation Period: 2006-2015

Adjusted R square: -0.06056

Standard Deviation: 0.09962

Coefficient Intercept: 17.90187

Coefficient Slope1: -0.00765

Independent Variable: Year

Independent Variable: 25-29 death rates

Observation Period: 2006-2015

Adjusted R square: 0.51024

Standard Deviation: 0.04494

Coefficient Intercept: 34.41332

Coefficient Slope1: -0.01594

Independent Variable: Year

Independent Variable: 30-34 death rates

Observation Period: 2006-2015

Adjusted R square: 0.46008

Standard Deviation: 0.04629

Coefficient Intercept: 32.68360

Coefficient Slope1: -0.01501

Independent Variable: Year

Independent Variable: 35-39 death rates

Observation Period: 2006-2015

Adjusted R square: 0.88368

Standard Deviation: 0.02330

Coefficient Intercept: 45.68097

Coefficient Slope1: -0.02136

Independent Variable: Year

Independent Variable: 40-44 death rates
199

Observation Period: 2006-2015

Adjusted R square: 0.76029

Standard Deviation: 0.03283

Coefficient Intercept: 42.46895

Coefficient Slope1: -0.01965

Independent Variable: Year

Independent Variable: 45-49 death rates

Observation Period: 2006-2015

Adjusted R square: 0.92655

Standard Deviation: 0.01543

Coefficient Intercept: 39.75705

Coefficient Slope1: -0.01818

Independent Variable: Year

Independent Variable: 50-54 death rates

Observation Period: 2006-2015

Adjusted R square: 0.90723

Standard Deviation: 0.01694

Coefficient Intercept: 38.81440

Coefficient Slope1: -0.01759

Independent Variable: Year

Independent Variable: 55-59 death rates

Observation Period: 2006-2015

Adjusted R square: 0.90754

Standard Deviation: 0.01033

Coefficient Intercept: 25.20895

Coefficient Slope1: -0.01075

Independent Variable: Year

Independent Variable: 60-64 death rates

Observation Period: 2006-2015

Adjusted R square: 0.56940

Standard Deviation: 0.01905

Coefficient Intercept: 18.86489

Coefficient Slope1: -0.00753

Female

Independent Variable: Year

Independent Variable: 15-19 death rates
200

Observation Period: 2006-2015

Adjusted R square: -0.09575

Standard Deviation: 1.12833

Coefficient Intercept: 117.83769

Coefficient Slope1: -0.05741

Independent Variable: Year

Independent Variable: 20-24 death rates

Observation Period: 2006-2015

Adjusted R square: 0.09785

Standard Deviation: 0.10587

Coefficient Intercept: -30.46411

Coefficient Slope1: 0.01639

Independent Variable: Year

Independent Variable: 25-29 death rates

Observation Period: 2006-2015

Adjusted R square: -0.12440

Standard Deviation: 0.06779

Coefficient Intercept: 3.28215

Coefficient Slope1: -0.00049

Independent Variable: Year

Independent Variable: 30-34 death rates

Observation Period: 2006-2015

Adjusted R square: -0.07011

Standard Deviation: 0.05976

Coefficient Intercept: 10.89892

Coefficient Slope1: -0.00421

Independent Variable: Year

Independent Variable: 35-39 death rates

Observation Period: 2006-2015

Adjusted R square: 0.43111

Standard Deviation: 0.01559

Coefficient Intercept: 12.23822

Coefficient Slope1: -0.00480

Independent Variable: Year

Independent Variable: 40-44 death rates

Observation Period: 2006-2015
201

Adjusted R square: 0.57780

Standard Deviation: 0.02696

Coefficient Intercept: 24.55290

Coefficient Slope1: -0.01083

Independent Variable: Year

Independent Variable: 45-49 death rates

Observation Period: 2006-2015

Adjusted R square: 0.81660

Standard Deviation: 0.02002

Coefficient Intercept: 31.36496

Coefficient Slope1: -0.01412

Independent Variable: Year

Independent Variable: 50-54 death rates

Observation Period: 2006-2015

Adjusted R square: 0.88405

Standard Deviation: 0.01190

Coefficient Intercept: 25.11935

Coefficient Slope1: -0.01093

Independent Variable: Year

Independent Variable: 55-59 death rates

Observation Period: 2006-2015

Adjusted R square: 0.82912

Standard Deviation: 0.01735

Coefficient Intercept: 28.91360

Coefficient Slope1: -0.01277

Independent Variable: Year

Independent Variable: 60-64 death rates

Observation Period: 2006-2015

Adjusted R square: 0.86626

Standard Deviation: 0.01526

Coefficient Intercept: 29.38372

Coefficient Slope1: -0.01293
202

3.3. Old-Age and Survivors Insurance

3.3.a. Overview

Every month, the Social Security program pays benefits to retired workers and their dependents. 

It also provides benefits to eligible dependents of deceased workers. The OLD-AGE AND 

SURVIVORS subprocess projects the number of people expected to receive benefits over the 

next 75 years. The projection method is very similar to the method used for dependent 

beneficiaries of disabled workers in the DISABILITY subprocess. We compute the projection of 

beneficiaries by multiplying a subset of the Social Security area population by a series of 

probabilities of the conditions that a person must meet to receive benefits. The main program 

receives all necessary input data and performs all preliminary calculations. It then calls each 

individual beneficiary type subroutine where it makes all beneficiary calculations.

We categorize retired workers and their dependent beneficiaries as follows:

• retired workers (RWN) by age (62-95+), sex, and marital status (single, married, 

widowed, divorced)

• aged spouses of retired workers (ASRWN), by age (62-95+), sex of the account holder, 

and marital status of the beneficiary (married, divorced) 

• young spouses of retired workers (YSRWN) by age-group (under 25, 25-29,..., 65-69) and 

sex of the account holder

• minor, student, and disabled adult children of retired workers (MCRWN, SCRWN, and 

DCRWN, respectively) by age of the child (0-17 for minor, 18-19 for student, age groups 

18-19, 20-24, ..., 55-59, 60+ for disabled adult) and sex of the account holder

Dependent beneficiaries of deceased workers include:

• aged spouses of deceased workers, ASDWN, by age (60-95+), sex of the account holder, 

marital status (widowed, divorced) and insured status (insured, uninsured)

• disabled spouses of deceased workers (DSDWN) by age (50-69), sex of the account 

holder and marital status (widowed, divorced)

• young spouses of deceased workers (YSDWN) by age-group (under 25, 25-29,..., 65-69), 

sex of the account holder and marital status of the beneficiary (widowed, divorced)

• minor, student, and disabled adult children of deceased workers (MCDWN, SCDWN, and 

DCDWN, respectively) by age of the child (0-17 for minor, 18-19 for student, age groups 

18-19, 20-24,..., 55-59, 60+ for disabled adult) and sex of the account holder

Lastly, we estimate the number of deaths of insured workers (LUMSUM) by 5-year age group 

(20-24, 25-29,..., 80-84, 85+) and sex.
203

Equations 3.3.1-13 indicates the flow of calculations of beneficiaries.

ASDWN = ASDWN(⋅) (3.3.1)

RWN = RWN(⋅) (3.3.2)

ASRWN = ASRWN(⋅) (3.3.3)

DSDWN = DSDWN(⋅) (3.3.4)

MCRWN = MCRWN(⋅) (3.3.5) 

MCDWN = MCDWN(⋅) (3.3.6)

SCRWN = SCRWN(⋅) (3.3.7)

SCDWN = SCDWN(⋅) (3.3.8)

DCRWN = DCRWN(⋅) (3.3.9)

DCDWN = DCDWN(⋅) (3.3.10)

 YSRWN = YSRWN(⋅) (3.3.11)

 YSDWN = YSDWN(⋅) (3.3.12)

LUMSUM = LUMSUM (⋅) (3.3.13)

The appendix 3.3-1 at the end of this section provides a listing with explanation of the acronyms 

used in this documentation.

 

3.3.b. Input Data

We update all data annually unless otherwise noted. Timing of data received is denoted ‘BOY’

(beginning of year) or ‘EOY’ (end of year). Workflow reference is bolded in parentheses after 

each item.

Long-Range OCACT Data

Demography

• Social Security area population by year (EOY 1970-2095), single year of age (0-100+), 

sex, and marital status (single, married, widowed, divorced) (3a)

• Deaths by year (during years 2015-2095), age group (20-24,...,80-84, 85+) and sex (3b)

• Average number of children per family by year (EOY 1970-2095), and age group of the 

householder (20-24,...,60-64) (3c)

• Children by year (EOY 1970-2095), single year of age (0-18), sex of primary account 

holder (parent), status of primary (62+ or deceased), and age of the other parent (15-

19,20-24,...,65-69, 70+, total ages) (3d)

• Married couples by year (EOY 1970-2095), age of husband (62-95+) and age of wife 

(62-95+) (3e)

• Persons with an aged spouse by year (EOY 1970-2095), age group (15-24, 25-29,...,65-

69) and sex (3f)

• Probabilities of death by year (EOY 1941-2100), single year of age (-1,100), and sex (3g)
204

Economics

• Covered wages and employment in the Federal Civilian and State and Local Sectors

(during years 1998-2095) (2c)

• Labor force participation rates for age 62 by year (during years 1970-2095) and sex (2d, 

3h)

Beneficiaries

• Fully insured persons by year (EOY 1969-2095), age (14-95+), sex, and marital status

(single, married, widowed, divorced) (3i)

• Disabled-worker beneficiaries in current pay by year (EOY 1970-2095), age (62-66) and 

sex (3j)

• Converted DI to OAI beneficiaries by year (EOY 1970-2095), age(65-95+) and sex (3j)

• Disability prevalence rates by year (EOY 1970-2095), age (50-66) and sex (3k)

Short-Range OCACT Data

• Insured aged spouses of deceased workers by year (EOY 1974-2015), age (60-95+) and 

sex (2b)

• Retired worker beneficiaries in-current-pay status by age (62-70, 70+) and sex for EOY 

2014-2025 (2e)

• We receive the following for EOY 2015 (2b):

a. Aged spouses of deceased workers by age (60-95+), sex and marital status (widowed, 

divorced)

b. Retired workers by age (62-95+) and sex

c. Aged spouses of retired workers by age (62-95+), sex and marital status (married, 

divorced)

d. Disabled widow(er)s by age (50-65), sex and marital status (widowed, divorced)

e. Minor children by age (0-17), sex of parent and status of parent (retired, deceased)

f. Student children by age (18-21), sex of parent and status of parent (retired, deceased)

g. Disabled adult children by age group (18-19, 20-24,...,55-59, 60+), sex of parent and 

status of parent (retired, deceased)

h. Young spouses of retired workers by age group (under 25, 25-29,...,60-64, 65-69) and 

sex

i. Young spouses of deceased workers by age group (under 25, 25-29,...,65-69), sex and 

marital status (widowed, divorced)

j. Total parent beneficiaries

Note: Each year, we append data for the most recent historical year.

• We receive the following for EOY 2025 (2e):

a. Retired workers by age group (62-64, 65-69) and sex

b. Insured widows by age group (60-64,...,80-84,85+)

c. Uninsured widows by age group (60-64, 65+)
205

d. Total disabled widows

e. Female young spouses of deceased workers

f. Female aged spouses of retired workers by age group (62-64, 65-67, 68-70, 71+)

g. Female young spouses of retired workers

h. Minor children by status of parent

i. Student children by status of parent

j. Disabled adult children by status of parent

• Total amount of lump-sum death payments during 2014 (2a)

Other Input Data

• For EOY 1970-2004, obtained from the MBR10PER dataset on the mainframe:

a. Aged spouses of deceased workers by age (60-95+), sex and marital status (widowed, 

divorced)

b. Retired workers by age (62-95+) and sex

c. Aged spouses of retired workers by age (62-95+), sex and marital status (married, 

divorced)

d. Disabled widow(er)s by age (50-64), sex and marital status (widowed, divorced)

e. Minor children by age (0-17), sex of parent and status of parent (retired, deceased)

f. Student children by age (18-19), sex of parent and status of parent (retired, deceased)

g. Disabled adult children by age (20-95+), sex of parent and status of parent (retired, 

deceased)

h. Young spouses of retired workers by age group (under 25, 25-29,...,60-64) and sex

i. Young spouses of deceased workers by age group (under 25, 25-29,...,65-69), sex and 

marital status (widowed, divorced)

j. Total parent beneficiaries

Note: We will not update this data.

• Number of beneficiaries with benefits withheld due to receipt of a significant government

pension by sex and marital status (married, widowed) for EOY 2014 from the 2015

Annual Statistical Supplement (2c)

• Age distribution of beneficiaries with benefits withheld due to receipt of a significant 

government pension by age (60-95+) and sex, computed as an average from the 2011

through 2015 WEP 100-percent sample (2g)

• Proportions of disabled adult children of retired and deceased workers (proportioned by 

age and sex of the child) from the 2003 MBR ten-percent sample. (Note: The RSB 

program calculates disabled adult children by sex of the primary account holder, not by 

sex of the child. The RSB program outputs a file, which we use for Annual Update #9, 

which calculates beneficiaries by sex. Therefore, we apply the 2003 proportions to 

estimate the breakdown of disabled adult children by sex of the child. We will not update 

this input.). Not used for SOSI.

• Schedule of normal retirement age (NRA), delayed retirement credit, and actuarial 
206

reduction factors for ages more than 3 years below NRA and less than 3 years below NRA

for years 1970-2095 from the Social Security website (Note: these values are only 

updated when there is a Social Security law change regarding the NRA) (2h)

• Prevalence rate regression coefficients (slopes and y-intercept value by sex) (2d)

• Regressed prevalence rate by sex for the most recent historical year (2d)

• Adjustment factors which account for the difference between estimated and actual 

historical retired worker prevalence rates by year (EOY 1970-2095), age (63-69) and sex

(2d, 2f)

• Adjustment factors which account for the difference between projected beneficiary values 

for the tenth year of the projection period made by the Long-Range and Short-Range 

offices. Factors are computed for:

a. Retired workers by age group (62-64, 65-69) and sex (2f)

b. Insured widows by age group (60-64,...,80-84,85+) (2e)

c. Uninsured widows by age group (60-64, 65+) (2e)

d. Total disabled widows (2e)

e. Female young spouses of deceased workers (2e)

f. Female aged spouses of retired workers by age group (62-64, 65+) (2e)

g. Female young spouses of retired workers (2e)

h. Minor children by status of parent (2e)

i. Student children by status of parent (2e)

j. Disabled adult children by status of parent (2e)

• Adjustment factors for auxiliary beneficiary categories due to the 2014 immigration 

executive action by sex for years 2016-2095 (2j). Factors are computed for:

a. Aged spouses of deceased workers (widow(er)s)

b. Aged spouses of retired workers

c. Disabled adult children of retired workers

d. Minor children of deceased workers

e. Disabled adult children of deceased workers

f. Young spouses of deceased workers

• Number of two-earner couples by year of birth of the spouse where the primary account 

holder files for and may or may not suspend their retired worker benefit and their spouse 

receives a spousal benefit for years 2006-2015 from a 100 percent MBR sample. (2i)

• Number of one-earner couples by year of birth of the spouse where the primary account 

holder files for and suspends their retirement worker benefit and their spouse receives a 

spousal benefit for years 2008-2015 from a 1 percent MBR sample. (2i)

• Number of one-earner couples by year of birth of the primary account holder where the 

primary account holder files for and suspends their retirement worker benefit and their 

spouse receives a spousal benefit for years 2008-2015 from a 1 percent MBR sample. (2i)
207

3.3.c. Development of Output

We use several acronyms to describe the equations presented below. Acronyms not preceded by 

a subscript generally refer to the number of beneficiaries. For example, RWN refers to the 

number of retired workers. Acronyms preceded with a ‘p’ refer to probabilities. For example, 

FIA pRW refers to the probability that a person is fully insured. 

Equation 3.3.1 – Aged Spouses of Deceased Workers (ASDWN)

Aged Spouses of Deceased Workers

Exposures: SSA population by age (60-95+), sex and marital status (widowed and

divorced)

Linkages: pASDWDEA = probability that the primary account holder (PAH) is

deceased

pASDWFIA = probability that the PAH was fully insured at death

pASDWMBB = probability that the widow(er) is not receiving a youngspouse benefit for the care of a child

pASDWFIB = probability that the aged-widow(er) is or is not fully 

insured

pASDWGPB = probability that the aged-widow(er)’s benefits are not 

withheld or offset totally because of receipt of a significant 

government pension based on earnings in noncovered 

employment

pASDWRES = probability that a widow(er) eligible to receive his/her own 

retired-worker benefits would instead apply for and receive 

widow(er) benefits

We project the number of aged spouses of deceased workers (widow(er)s), along with all 

linkage factors, by age, sex of the account holder (sa=1 for male, sa=2 for female), marital 

status and insured status. Age ranges from 60 to 95+, marital status includes widowed 

(mb=1) and divorced (mb=2), and insured status includes insured (in=1) and uninsured 

(in=2). Note that all variables preceded by the letter p refer to calculated probabilities. We 

calculate the projected number of insured aged spouses of deceased workers age 60 to 70, 

and uninsured aged spouses of deceased workers age 60 to 95+ as follows:

AAAAAAAAAA = AAAAAAAAPPPPPP × pp DDDDDD × pp FFFF × pp MMMMMM

× pp FFFF × ppAAAAAAAAGG × pp RR RR (3.3.1)

For those with a marital status of widowed (mb=1) we apply an additional adjustment factor 

(IIIIIIII IIIIIIII( tt )) to the above calculation for the 2014 immigration executive order by 

type of beneficiary (typ=1: insured with male PAH; 2: insured with female PAH; 15: 

uninsured with male PAH; 16: uninsured with female PAH):

AAAAAAAAAA = AAAAAAAAAA × IIIIIIII IIIIIIII( tt )
208

For each sex we calculate the projected number of insured aged spouses of deceased workers 

over age 70 by applying mortality rates to the population already receiving such benefits:

AAAAAAAAAANN,YY = AAAAAAAAAANN−1,YY −1 × (1 − qqqqNN−1,YY )

Where N is the age, and qqqqNN−1,YY is the death rate for age N-1 in the given year.

ASDWPOP represents the subset of the population from which we draw these beneficiaries. 

We set this equal to the Social Security area population (SSAPOPmb) for each possible 

marital status.

AAAAAAAAPPPPPP = SSSSSSmmmm

pASDWDEA represents the probability that the primary account holder (PAH) is deceased. 

For the widowed population, we set this factor equal to one. For the divorced population, we 

set this factor equal to the portion of the total widowed (SSAPOPwid) and married 

(SSAPOPmar) population who are widowed.

pp DDDDDD = �

1, mm = 1 (wwwwwwwwwwwwww)

SSSSSSwwwwww

SSSSSSmmmmmm + SSSSSSwwwwww

, mm = 2 ( vv vv )

pASDWFIA represents the probability that the PAH was fully insured at death. For a given

age of widow, AW, we assume that the age of her deceased husband, AH, ranges from AW-6

to AW+12 with a lower and upper bound of 60 and 95+. Further, we assume that the more 

likely age of the husband is AW+3. For each age, we calculate pASDWFIA as a weighted 

average of the portion of the Social Security area population who are fully insured at each 

possible age of the husband (FINSAH). For example, for a widow age 70, we assume that the 

age of her husband is between 64 and 82, therefore we calculate the weighted average of the 

portion of the population who are fully insured males, applying the highest weight of 10 to 

age 73, and a linearly reduced weight to zero for each age above and below 73. We use the 

same concept for widow(er)s with the assumption that the age of his deceased wife ranges 

from AH-12 to AH+6, with a greater likelihood of her age being AH-3. Let WEIGHT

represent the specific weight applied to each potential age of the spouse. 

WWWWWW AA = 10 − |AAAA + 3 − AA |

WWWW WW = 10 − |AA − 3 − AAAA|

pp FFFF =

⎩

⎪

⎨

⎪

⎧ ∑ WWWWWW AA × AA

+12

AA= −6

∑ WWWWWW AA

+12

AA= −6

, ss = 1

∑ WWWWWW × AA+6

= AA−12

∑ WWWWWW AA+6

= AA−12

, ss = 2
209

pASDWMBB represents the probability that the widow(er) is not receiving a young-spouse 

benefit for the care of a child. A widow(er) can receive a young-spouse benefit up to age 69 

if he/she meets all other eligibility requirements. Since the minimum age requirement to 

receive a widow(er) benefit is 60, it is necessary to remove those receiving a young-spouse 

benefit ( ab YSDWN ), where ab represents the 5-year age bracket1

. We assume a uniform 

breakdown to divide the age groups into single-age estimates.

For in = 1 (insured):

pp MMMMMM = 1

For in = 2 (uninsured):

FF FF =

⎩

⎪

⎨

⎪

⎧ 1, 65 ≤ aa aa ≥ aa + 1

− aa , aa < < aa + 1

0, ee h

pp MMMMMM =

⎩

⎪

⎪

⎪

⎨

⎪

⎪

⎪

⎧1 − 0.2 × YY 60−64

AAAAAAAAPPPPPP × pp DDDDDD × pp FFFF

, aa = 60 − 64

1 − YY 65−69

AAAAAAAAPPPPPP × pp DDDDDD × pp FFFF

×

FF FF aaaa

∑ FF FF aaaa

69

65

, 65 ≤ aa ≤

1, aa >

pASDWFIB represents the probability that the aged widow(er) is fully insured. For insured 

widow(er)s, pASDWFIB is the portion of the Social Security area population that is fully 

insured (FINS) at each age, sex, and marital status. For uninsured widow(er)s, pASDWFIB is 

simply one minus the probability for insured widow(er)s.

pp FFFF =

⎩

⎪

⎨

⎪

⎧

mmmm

, = 1

1 − SSSSSSmmmm

, = 2

Where in represents the insured status of the account holder.

pASDWGPB represents the probability that the aged-widow(er)'s benefits are not withheld or 

completely offset because of receipt of a significant government pension based on earnings 

in noncovered employment. According to the 1977 amendments, Social Security benefits are 

 1 There are no young spouses at NRA or above.
210

subject to reduction by up to two-thirds of non-covered government pension. GPWHLD

represents the total number of widow(er) beneficiaries (for all ages) expected to receive a 

significant government pension. rGPOAGE represents the ratio of the total for each given 

age. If a person is insured, this implies that he/she is eligible to receive Social Security 

benefits based on his/her own earnings regardless of a government pension. Therefore, we 

do not apply a factor. 

For in = 1 (insured):

pp GG = 1

For in = 2 (uninsured):

pp GG = �

1, ≤ 1978

1 − × GG

AAAAAAAAPPPPPP × pp DDDDDD × pp FFFF × pp MMMMMM × pp FFFF

, > 1978

pASDWRES represents the probability that a widow(er), who is eligible to receive 

widow(er)’s benefits, will actually receive benefits. In particular, for in = 1, this factor is 

equivalent to the probability that a widow(er) eligible to receive his/her own retired-worker 

benefits would instead apply for and receive widow(er) benefits. For all historical years, we 

calculate year pASDWRES as the ratio of ASDWN, the actual number of widow(er)s, to the 

number of persons meeting all previously mentioned requirements by age, sex, insured 

status, and marital status.

pp RR RR

yy = PPPPPP×pp DDDDDD×pp FFFF ×pp MMMMMM×pp FFFF ×pp GG

, year < TRYR

Where TRYR is the Trustees Report year.

For each age, sex, insured status, and marital status, we use a least squares regression over 

the last ten years of historical data to determine a starting value in TRYR-1 for year pASDWRES

from which we project future values. In addition, for each sex, insured status, and marital 

status, we graduate the regressed values of TRYR−1

RES pASDW over age using a weighted 

minimized third-difference formula to produce ASDW ESTRES . ASDW ESTRES are the 

preliminary estimates of TRYR+9 pASDWRES , the values in the tenth year of the projection period. 

In addition, we apply adjustments to the widows (sa =1 ) by age group (60-64, 65-69 for 

insured; 60-64, 65+ for uninsured), ASDW SRADJ , to the tenth year of the projection period in 

order to match the projections made by the Short-Range office. We linearly interpolate the 

values of year pASDWRES for intermediate years between pp RR RR

TT −1 and pp RR RR

TT +9

(equal to ) ASDW ASDW ESTRES SRADJ ∗ . After the 10th year, we linearly grade these 

adjustment factors to one over the 10 years beyond the end of the short-range period, thus 

gradually eliminating the effect of the short-range adjustment factors, so that we ultimately 

return to long-range projections. 
211

We also apply adjustments to the 70+ insured widows by age group (70-74, 75-79, 80-84, 

85+). The adjustments for the intermediate years between the TRYR and TRYR + 9 are 

applied on a cohort basis to the number of aged spouses of deceased workers (ASDWN) 

using the following formula:

AAAAAAAAAANN,YY = AAAAAAAAAANN,YY × SS

�

1

h�

Where h is the number of years the adjustment is applied for the cohort. For age 70, we 

linearly grade these adjustment factors to one over the 10 years beyond the end of the shortrange period, thus gradually eliminating the effect of the short-range adjustment factors, so 

that we ultimately return to long-range projections.

Equation 3.3.2 – Retired Workers (RWN)

Retired Workers

Exposure: SSA population by age (62-95+), sex and marital status (single, married, 

widowed and divorced)

Linkages: pRWFIA = probability that the primary account holder (PAH) is insured

pRWDBB = probability that the PAH is not receiving a disabled-worker 

benefit

pRWWBB = probability that the PAH is not receiving a widow(er) benefit

pRWRES = retirement prevalence rate; probability that a fully insured

worker not receiving disability or widow(er)’s benefits would 

receive a retired-worker benefit

We project the numbers of retired-worker beneficiaries, along with all linkage factors, by 

age, sex, and marital status. Age ranges from 62 to 95+, and marital status includes single, 

married, widowed, and divorced (ms = 1 to 4). We calculate the projected number of retiredworker beneficiaries as follows:

= PPPPPP × pp FFFF × pp DD × pp WW × pp RR RR (3.3.2)

RWPOP represents the subset of the population from which we draw these beneficiaries. We 

set this equal to the Social Security area population (SSAPOPms) for ms = 1 to 4.

PPPPPP = SSSSSSmmmm

pRWFIA represents the probability that the primary account holder (PAH) is insured. We set 

this factor equal to the portion of the Social Security area population that is fully insured 

(FINS) for ms=1 to 4.

pp FFFF = PPPPPP

pRWDBB represents the probability that the PAH is not receiving a disabled-worker or 

disability-conversion benefit. We set this factor equal to the portion of fully insured workers 

who are neither disabled-worker beneficiaries nor converted from disabled-worker 
212

beneficiaries (DIBCON). ASDWN represents the number of aged spouses of deceased 

workers.

pp DD =

⎩

⎪

⎨

⎪

⎧1 − DD

PPPPPP × pp FFFF

, = 1 − 2

�1 − DD + AAAAAAAAAA

PPPPPP × pp FFFF

�

� DD DD

DD DD + �

, = 3 − 4

 

pRWWBB represents the probability that the PAH is not receiving a widow(er) benefit. We 

set this factor equal to the portion of fully insured workers that is not aged spouses of 

deceased workers. 

pp WW =

⎩

⎪

⎨

⎪

⎧1, = 1 − 2

�1 − DD + AAAAAAAAAA

PPPPPP × pp FFFF

�

�

DD DD + �

, = 3 − 4

pRWRESN,year represents the retirement prevalence rate, which is the probability that a fully 

insured worker not receiving disability or widow(er)’s benefits would receive retired-worker 

benefits as of the given age, N, for the given year. In order to estimate the future prevalence 

rate, the program first calculates the historical values of N year pRWRES

, .

For each historical year and sex, we calculate N year pRWRES

, as the ratio of RWN, the actual 

number of retired workers, to the number of persons meeting all previously mentioned 

requirements by age, sex, and marital status.

pp RR RR

NN,yy = RR

RR PPPPPP×pp FFFF ×pp DD ×pp WW

, N = 62-95+ and year < TRYR

Historical prevalence rates at age 62 follow an inverse relationship with (1) labor force 

participation rates (LFPRyear) at age 62, by sex, and (2) increases in the normal retirement age 

over the historical period. We assume this relationship holds in the projection period, and 

therefore we used it to calculate REGPRyear, the regressed prevalence rate based on the 

projected LFPRyear at age 62 for each year and sex, and the number of months from age 62 to

the normal retirement age (monthNRAyear). Note that we calculate prevalence rates on a 

cohort basis2. The regression equation used to estimate the prevalence rates is:

yy = −1.02646 × yy + −0.00364 × h yy + 1.08627 for male with 

an R2 value of 0.899087,

and

yy = −0.52481 × yy + −0.00705 × h yy + 0.94229 for female with 

 2 For example, to calculate the projected number of 65 year olds in a given year, the prevalence rate at age 62 is 

needed. This is actually the prevalence rate that occurred three years ago at age 62.
213

an R2 value of 0.905583

We then set the future prevalence rate at age 62, year pRWRES

62, , equal to the sum of the 

regressed prevalence rate (REGPRyear) and ERROR, the difference between the actual 

prevalence rate and the regressed prevalence rate in the most recent historical year, which we 

phase out linearly over 10 years. 

pp RR RR

62,yy = yy + ( ) × �0,

TT +9−yy

10 �, N = 62 and year ≥ TRYR-1

To compute N year pRWRES

, for ages 63 to 69 in the projection period, we must calculate several 

preliminary variables. These include:

 MBAPIAN, for N = 62,70 (same for both sexes),

 year ESTPRN , for N = 63,69 and by sex, and

 DIFFADJN, for N = 63,69 and by sex.

MBAPIAN is the ratio of the monthly benefit amount (MBA) to the primary insurance amount 

(PIA) at age N and is calculated on a cohort basis for N = 62,70. We base the calculation of 

MBAPIAN on the normal retirement age (NRA), delayed retirement credits (DRC), and 

actuarial reduction factors, ARFLE3 when the difference between NRA and age at retirement 

is less than 3, and ARFGT3 when the difference is greater than 3 within each cohort. If a

person retires after NRA, his/her benefits are increased by DRC for each year the age exceeds 

NRA. If a person retires before NRA, his/her benefits are decreased by ARFLE3 for each of 

the first three years that NRA exceeds the age, and further decreased by ARFGT3 for any 

remaining years.

MM NN =

⎩

⎪

⎨

⎪

⎧ 1 + ( − ) × , ≥

1 − ( − ) × AA 3, − 3 ≤ ≤

1 − 3 × AA 3 − ( − 3 − ) × AA �3, < − 3

year ESTPRN , the estimated prevalence rate at age N, is then calculated as the prevalence rate 

at age 62 ( 62, year−(N−62) pRWRES ) plus an estimate on the expected portion of the remaining 

probability ( 62, ( 62) 1 − − − year N pRWRES ), that a potential retired worker will actually retire by that 

given age. We base this estimate on MBAPIAN, assuming that the retirement decision by a 

worker is totally and completely influenced by the expected change in the portion of PIA that 

is payable at each age relative to the potential change after the initial eligibility.

NN

yy = pp RR RR

62,yy −(NN−62) + (1 − pp RR RR62,yy −(NN−62)

) ×

MMMM NN−MMMM 62

MMMM 70−MMMM 62

, N = 63-69

In the first year of the projection period, an adjustment (DIFFADJN) is made which accounts 

for the difference between the actual and estimated prevalence rate at each age in the most 

recent historical years. For ages 63 to 69, the value used beginning in TRYR is the average 

of the last 5 years’ differences between the actual and estimated PR. With the exception of 
214

age 66, we hold this value constant throughout the projection period. 

For years in which the NRA increases, DIFFADJN is greater for a period of time both before 

and after the NRA transitions to a new age. This affects DIFFADJ66 due to the increase in 

NRA from age 65 to age 66 between the years 2000-2005, and the scheduled increase from 

age 66 to 67 over the years 2017-2022. Thus for the years preceding the change in NRA 

from age 66 to 67, we use the average from the last five historical years, which includes the 

increase in the difference between actual and estimated prevalence rates from when the NRA 

changed from age 65 to 66, in order to calculate DIFFADJ66 . After the NRA increases to 

age 67 in 2026, we use DIFFADJ266 which is the average difference between actual and 

estimated prevalence rates from the years 1995-1999 since at that time it is expected to 

decrease to the level it was prior to the increase in NRA to age 66 in the year 2000. In the 

years during which the NRA transitions to age 67 (2021-2026) we use a linear interpolation 

based on the number of months that the NRA has increased in order to phase out DIFFADJ66

and phase in DIFFADJ266. It will remain at DIFFADJ266 for the rest of the projection 

period. 

pp RR RR

NN,yy = NN + NN

For age 70, we assume that the values of the latest actual N year pRWRES

, by sex change linearly 

to the ultimate level of 0.995 for male and 0.99 for female over the first 20 years of the 

projection period.

For year ≥ TRYR:

pp RR RR

70,yy =

⎩

⎪

⎨

⎪

⎧0.995 − �0.995 − pp RR RR

70,TT −1

� × �0, + 19 −

20 � , ss = 1

0.99 − �0.99 − pp RR RR

70,TT −1

� × �0, + 19 −

20 � , ss = 2

For ages 71 and older, we assume N year pRWRES

, stays constant at the level when the age was 70 

because there is no incentive to delay applying for benefits beyond age 70.

pp RR RR

NN,yy = pp RR RR

70,yy −(NN−70)

, for N = 71-95+ and year ≥ TRYR

In addition, we apply adjustments by age group (62-64, 65-69) and sex, RW SRADJ , to the 

tenth year of the projection period in order to match the projections made by the Short-Range 

office. We also apply these adjustments to N year pRWRES

, for all years after TRYR+9. The 

values of N year pRWRES

, for intermediate years are linearly interpolated between N,TRYR−1 pRWRES

and N,TRYR+9 pRWRES .

In response to the elimination of the file and suspend and deemed filing claiming strategies 

for aged spouses by the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015 (BBA), we expect that the married 
215

and divorced retired workers who would have delayed receiving their worker benefits will

instead file for benefits earlier. As such, we use the unsuspRW(ag) factor to increase the 

projected number of married workers for those who would have suspended their benefits but 

will now begin receiving them earlier. 

uu uu ( aa) = ss ss ( aa) + aa,MM,MM + aa,FF,MM

aa,MM,MM + aa,FF,MM

− 1

Where suspRW(ag) is the number of retired workers who would have suspended their 

benefits for the file and suspend strategy. Since the utilization of this filing strategy had been 

expected to continue to grow in popularity had it not been eliminated, we apply a behavioral 

increase factor, RWBehavioralInc(ag), to unsuspRW(ag) to reflect the increasing number of 

retired workers who will no longer delay their benefits now that the filing strategy is no 

longer available. 

h aa ( aa) = �

1.5, ff h 1947

1.03, ff h 1948

1.0, ff h 1948

We use the DFRetWrkr(ag) factor to increase the number of married and divorced retired 

workers for the insured aged spouses who will no longer be able to delay receiving their 

worker benefit while receiving their aged spouse benefit. We calculate these factors as:

DD ( aa)

= ( aa) + aa,MM,MM + aa,FF,MM + aa,MM,DD DD + aa,FF,DD DD

aa,MM,MM + aa,FF,MM + aa,MM,DD DD + aa,FF,DD DD

− 1

Where DeemdFiler(ag) is the number of insured aged spouses who would have used the 

deemed filing strategy. We assume that 80 percent of these deemed filers will file for worker 

benefits earlier now that the strategy is no longer available, with 1/3 claiming at age 66, and 

1/9 at each age 67 through 69. 

As the NRA transitions from 66 to 67, we reduce both the unsuspRW(66) and 

DFRetWrkr(66) by one minus the increase in NRA expressed as a fraction of a year with 

each factor being set to zero once the NRA is 67. 

For each age, retired workers are further broken down by age at entitlement, AE, by 

multiplying the number of retired workers at age N by the ratio of the incidence rate at AE (

N AE − years prior) to the prevalence rate at age N.

yy = yy ×

yyyyyyyy−(NN− )

pp RR RR

NN,yyyyyyyy

NN NN , AE ≤ N
216

where we calculate the incidence rate for a given AE = N and year as the change in the

prevalence rate at age N to the prevalence rate at age N-1 in the previous year.

II IIyy =

⎩

⎪

⎪

⎨

⎪

⎪

⎧pp RR RR

NN,yy , = AA = 62

pp RR RR

NN,yy − pp RR RRNN−1,yy −1

, 63 ≤ = AA ≤ 69

1 − pp RR RR

NN−1,yy −1

, = AA = 70

Additional adjustments are applied to the incidence rates in order to account for the increase 

in retired worker beneficiaries due to the elimination of the deemed filing and file and 

suspend strategies. Since many of the beneficiaries utilizing these strategies delayed 

receiving their worker benefit until age 70, we assume that the retired workers added through 

the unsuspRW(ag) and DFRetWrkr(ag) factors will survive until age 70. As such, our 

incidence rate calculations are adjusted to reflect the age at which the new retired workers 

claim benefits and to ensure that they remained on the rolls until age 70.

Equation 3.3.3 – Aged Spouses of Retired Workers (ASRWN)

Aged Spouses of Retired Workers

Exposures: SSA population by age (62-95+, sex, and marital status (married and 

divorced)

Linkages: pASRWDEA= probability that the primary account holder (PAH) is not

deceased

pASRWAGA = probability that the PAH is of the required age

pASRWFIA = probability that the PAH is fully insured

pASRWCPA = probability that the PAH is receiving benefits

pASRWMBB = probability that the beneficiary is not receiving a youngspouse 

benefit

pASRWFIB = probability that the aged-spouse is not fully insured

pASRWGPB= probability that the aged-spouse’s benefits are not withheld 

because of receipt of a significant government pension based 

on earnings in noncovered employment

pASRWFS1= probability that a couple will engage in a filing 

strategy in which the PAH files for and suspends their benefit

and an uninsured spouse receives an aged spouse benefit

pASRWFS2= probability that a couple will engage in a filing 

strategy in which the PAH files for and may or may not 

suspend their benefit and the fully insured spouse files only for 

their aged spouse benefit.

pASRWRES = probability that a person who is eligible to receive aged-spouse 

benefits actually receives the benefits

We project the number of aged spouses of retired workers, along with all linkage factors, by 
217

age, sex of the account holder (sa = 1, 2), and marital status of the beneficiary. Age ranges 

from 62 to 95+, and marital status includes married (mb = 1) and divorced (mb = 2). 

Additionally we apply an adjustment factor (IIIIIIII IIIIIIII( tt )) for the 2014 immigration 

executive order by beneficiary type (typ = 3: married aged wife of retired worker; 4: married 

aged husband of retired worker; 5: divorced aged wife of retired worker; 6: divorced aged 

husband of retired worker). We calculate the projected number of aged spouses of retired 

workers as follows:

AAAA AAAA = AAAA AAPPPPPP × pp DDDDDD × pp × pp FFFF × pp ×

pp MMMMMM × pp FFFF × pp GG × pp FF 1 × ppAAAA AAFF 2 ×

pp RR RR × IIIIIIII IIIIIIII( tt ) (3.3.3)

 

ASRWPOP represents the subset of the population from which these beneficiaries are drawn,

and we set it equal to the Social Security area population (SSAPOPmb) for mb = 1, 2.

AAAA AAPPPPPP = SSSSSSmmmm

pASRWDEA represents the probability that the PAH is not deceased. For the married 

population, we do not apply a factor. For the divorced population, we set the factor equal to 

the portion of the total married and widowed population who are married.

pp DDDDDD = �

1, mm = 1 ( )

SSSSSSmmmmmm

SSSSSSmmmmmm + SSSSSSwwwwww

, mm = 2 ( )

pASRWAGA represents the probability that the PAH is of the required age, and we set it equal 

to the portion of the married population with a spouse (PAH) at least age 62.

pp = ∑ (AAAA, AAAA) 95 =62

SSSSSS ,mmmmmm

Where mar(AA,AS) is the number of married couples where the age of the account holder is 

AA and the spouse of the account holder is age AS. 

 

pASRWFIA represents the probability that the PAH is fully insured, and we set it equal to the 

portion of married couples of the required age where the PAH is fully insured (FI_PAH). 

For example, when the program estimates the number of female aged spouse of retired 

workers, this factor will find the portion where their spouse, the male PAH, is fully insured.

pp FFFF = ∑ [ (AAAA, AAAA) × _ ,mmmmmm] 95 =62

∑ (AAAA, AAAA) 95 =62
218

pASRWCPA represents the probability that the PAH is receiving benefits. We set this factor 

equal to the portion of eligible married couples where the PAH is receiving benefits 

(RETIRED). If the beneficiary is divorced, we do not apply a factor, since it is not required 

for the retired worker to be receiving benefits for the divorced aged spouse to receive 

benefits.

pp =

⎩

⎪

⎨

⎪

⎧ 1, ≥ 1985 aa

mm = 2

∑ [ (AAAA, AAAA) × _ ,mmmmmm × 95 =62 ]

∑ (AAAA, AAAA) × _ ,mmmmmm 95 =62

, ee h

pASRWMBB represents the probability that the beneficiary is not receiving a young-spouse 

benefit. If the beneficiary is age 70 or older or if the beneficiary is divorced, we do not apply 

a factor. Otherwise, we set this factor equal to the portion of potentially eligible widow(er)s 

where the spouse of the PAH is not receiving a young-spouse benefit ( ab YSRWN ), where ab 

represents the 5-year age group.3

For mb = 1 (married):

FF FF = �

1, 65 ≤ aa aa ≥ aa + 1

− aa , aa < < aa + 1

0, eess h

pp MMMMMM =

⎩

⎪

⎪

⎪

⎪

⎪

⎨

⎪

⎪

⎪

⎪

⎪

⎧1 − 0.2 × YY 60−64

AAAA PPPPPP × pp DDDDDD × pp × pp FFFF × pp , aa = 62 − 64

1 − YY 65−69

AAAA AAPPPPPP × pp DDDDDD × pp × pp FFFF × pp

×

AA

∑ FF FF aa

69

65

, 65 ≤ aa ≤

1, ee h

For mb = 2 (divorced):

pp MMMMMM = 1

pASRWFIB represents the probability that the aged spouse is not fully insured, and is 

 3 There are no young spouses at NRA or above.
219

therefore not receiving a retired-worker benefit based on his/her own earnings. We set this 

factor equal to the portion of the married and divorced population that is not fully insured. 

For example, when the program estimates the number of female aged spouse of retired 

workers, this factor will find the portion of female beneficiaries that is fully insured. 

pp FFFF = 1 − FFFF , mb = 1-2

pASRWGPB represents the probability that the aged-spouse's benefits are not withheld 

because of receipt of a significant government pension based on earnings in noncovered 

employment. GPWHLD represents the total number of aged spouse of retired-worker 

beneficiaries (for all ages) expected to receive a significant government pension. rGPOAGE

represents the ratio of the total for each given age. 

pp GG

= �

1, ≤ 1978

1 − × GG

AAAA AAPPPPPP × pp DDDDDD × pp × pp FFFF × pp × pp MMMMMM × pp FFFF

, ee h

pASRWFS1 represents the probability that a couple engages in a filing strategy in which the 

PAH files for and suspends their worker benefit and the uninsured aged spouse files for a 

spousal benefit. Due to the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015 (BBA), this filing strategy is no 

longer available to married couples if the worker files and suspends their worker benefits 

after April 29, 2016. We assume that any couple with a worker age 66 and older who was 

planning on using this strategy will do so before it is eliminated. For the couples where the 

worker reaches age 66 after April 29, 2016, we assume that the worker will instead opt to 

receive their worker benefit when they would have suspended so that their spouse can receive 

the aged spouse benefit.

For mb=1 (married):

Since we assume the one-earner couples will begin receiving benefits at the same time 

regardless of whether the file and suspend strategy is available, we expect that the projected 

prevalence rate, pASRWRES , will be similar to that in the historical period. Thus, we set the 

pASRWFS1 to 1 for all years less than TRYR. 

Additionally, we set the factor to 1 for all ages in the year 2020, the year in which the last 

group of workers able to make use of this strategy would reach age 70, and later. For the 

years prior to 2020, we calculate pASRWFS1 as the percent of new couples engaging in this 

strategy over the total number of married aged spouses receiving benefits in the last historical 

year.

pp FF 1

yy = 1 +

FF 1( aa) − 1( aa)

AAAA AAAA aa,MM,MM + AAAA AAAA aa,FF,MM

Where FSCouple1(ag) is the number of one-earner couples expected to use the file and 

suspend strategy, and lastyrFSCouple1(ag) is the number of one-earner couples using this 
220

strategy in the last historical year. We then phase out pASRWFS1 for those who turn 66 after 

April 29, 2016, based upon the age distribution of the workers newly suspending their 

benefits in order make use of this strategy.

For mb = 2 (divorced):

pp FF 1

yy = 1

pASRWFS2 represents the probability that a couple engages in a filing strategy in which the 

PAH files for and may or may not suspend their worker benefit and their fully insured spouse 

receives only a spousal benefit thus delaying receiving their worker benefit. For historical

years 2006 to TRYR-1, we set this equal to 1 plus the ratio of couples ages NRA to 70 where 

the PAH has filed for benefits and their fully insured spouse is receiving only a spousal 

benefit (FSCouple2(ag, sa, mb)) to the actual number of aged spouse beneficiaries. Due to 

the BBA, those turning 62 in 2016 or later will no longer be able to use this filing strategy.

For the projection period prior to the elimination of this filing strategy, we set pp FF 2

yy

equal to pp FF 2

yy −1

multiplied by a behavioral increase factor (BehaviorInc(ag)). This 

factor accounts for the increase in the number of couples engaging in this filing strategy due 

to knowledge of the strategy becoming more widespread as well as the growth in the age 62 

insured married and divorced population (insur62). We set pp FF 2 to 1 in the projection 

period as those age 62 in 2016 reach NRA and above. 

For year < TRYR:

pp FF 2

yy = �

1 +

FF 2( aa, ss , mm)

AAAA AAAA aa, ,mmmm

yy , 2006 ≤ aa ≤ aa ≤ 70

1, ee h

For year ≥TRYR:

h aa ( aa) = �

1.4 × 62, ff h 1946

1.3 × 62, ff h 1947

1.2 × 62, ff h 1948

1.0 × 62, ff h 1948

pp FF 2

yy =

⎩

⎨

⎧1 + �pp 2

−1 − 1� × h aa ( aa), ≤ ≤ 70 aa

− 2016 + 62 < aa

1, ee h

pASRWRES represents the probability that a person who is eligible to receive aged-spouse 

benefits actually receive the benefits. For all historical years, we calculate year pASRWRES as the 
221

ratio of ASRWN, the actual number of aged spouses receiving benefits, to the number of 

persons meeting all previously mentioned requirements by age, sex, and marital status.

For year < TRYR:

pp RR RR

yy =

AAAA AAAA

AAAA AAPPPPPP × pp DDDDDD × pp × pp FFFF × pp × pp MMMMMM × pp FFFF × pp GG × pp FF 1 × pp FF 2

For each age, sex , and marital status, we use a least squares regression over the last ten 

years of historical data to determine a starting value in TR-1 for year pASRWRES from which we 

project future values. In addition, for each sex and marital status, we graduate the regressed

values of TRYR−1 pASRWRES over age using a weighted minimized third-difference formula to 

compute ASRW ESTRES . ASRW ESTRES are the preliminary estimates of TRYR+9 pASRWRES , the 

values in the tenth year of the projection period. For female spouses, we apply additional 

adjustments by age group (62-64, 65+), ASRW SRADJ , to the tenth year of the projection 

period in order to match the projections made by the Short-Range office. We linearly 

interpolate the values of year pASRWRES for intermediate years interpolated between 

TRYR−1 pASRWRES and TRYR+9 pASRWRES (equal to ASRW ASRW ESTRES SRADJ × ). After the 10th year of 

the projection period, we linearly grade these adjustment factors to one over the 10 years 

beyond the end of the short-range period, thus gradually eliminating the effect of the shortrange adjustment factors, so that we ultimately return to the long-range projections.

Equation 3.3.4 – Disabled Spouses of Deceased Workers (DSDWN)

Disabled Spouses of Deceased Workers

Exposure: SSA population by age (50-69), sex and marital status (widowed and 

divorced)

Linkages: pDSDWDEA = probability that the primary account holder (PAH) is 

deceased

pDADWFIA = probability that the PAH was fully insured at death

pDSDWSSB = probability that the spouse is indeed disabled

pDSDWDEB = probability that the disabled spouse is not receiving another 

type of benefit

pDSDWRES = probability that a person who is eligible to receive 

disabledspouse benefits actually receive the benefits

We project the number of disabled spouses of deceased workers, along with all linkage 

factors, by age, sex of the account holder (sa = 1 for male, sa = 2 for female), and marital 

status. Age ranges from 50 to 69, and marital status includes widowed (mb = 1) and divorced 

(mb = 2). We calculate the projected number of disabled spouses of deceased workers as 

follows:
222

= PPPPPP × pp DDDDDD × pp FFFF ×

pp × pp DDDD × pp RR RR (3.3.4)

DSDWPOP represents the subset of the population from which we draw these beneficiaries,

and we set it equal to the Social Security area population (SSAPOPmb) for mb = 1,2.

PPPPPP = SSSSSSmmmm

pDSDWDEA represents the probability that the primary account holder is deceased. For the 

widowed population, we do not apply a factor. For the divorced population, we set this 

factor equal to the portion of the total widowed and married population that is widowed.

pp DDDDDD = �

1, mm = 1 (wwwwwwwwwwwwww)

SSSSSSwwwwww

SSSSSSwwwwww + SSSSSSmmmmmm

, mm = 2 ( )

pDSDWFIA represents the probability that the PAH was fully insured at death. Given the age 

of the widow, AW, we assume that the age of her deceased husband, AH, ranges from AW-6

to AW+12 with a lower and upper bound of 50 and 95+. Further, we assume that the more 

likely age of the husband is AW+3. For each age, we calculate pDSDWFIA as a weighted 

average of the portion of the Social Security area population that is fully insured (FINS), at 

each possible age of the husband. For example, if the widow is age 65, we assume that the 

age of the husband is between 59 and 77. Therefore, when we calculate the weighted 

average of the portion of the population who are fully insured males, we apply the highest 

weight of ten to age 68 and linearly reduce the weight to zero for each age above and below 

68. We use the same concept for widow(er)s with the assumption that the age of his 

deceased wife ranges from AH-12 to AH+6, with a greater likelihood of her age being AH-3. 

Let WEIGHT represent the specific weight applied to each age. 

WWWWWW AA = 10 − |AAAA + 3 − AA |

WWWWWW � = 10 − |AA − 3 − AAAA|

pp FFFF =

⎩

⎪

⎨

⎪

⎧∑ WWWWWW AA × AA

+12

AA= −6

∑ WWWWWW AA

+12

AA= −6

, ss = 1

∑ WWWWWW × AA+6

= AA−12

∑ WWWWWW AA+6

= AA−12

, ss = 2

pDSDWSSB represents the probability that the spouse is indeed disabled. We set this factor 

equal to the disability prevalence rates (DISPREV) by age and sex received from the 

DISABILITY subprocess.

pp = DD
223

pDSDWDEB represents the probability that the disabled spouse is not dually eligible for

another type of benefit. We assume this factor remains at a constant level by sex.

pp DDDD = �

0.85, ss = 1

0.06, ss = 2

pDSDWRES represents the probability that a person who is eligible to receive disabled-spouse 

benefits actually receive the benefits. For all historical years, we calculate year pDSDWRES as 

the ratio of DSDWN, the actual number of disabled spouses of deceased workers receiving 

benefits, to the number of persons meeting all previously mentioned requirements by age, 

sex, and marital status.

pp RR RR

yy = DD DD

DD DD PPPPPP×pp DDDDDD×pp FFFF ×pp ×pp DDDD

, year < TRYR

For ages 50 to 64, and each sex, and marital status, we use the average pp RR RR

yy over the 

last five years of historical data to determine starting values for pp RR RR

yy from which we 

project future values. We phase in these averages over five years using a linear interpolation 

between the five-year averages and pp RR RR

TT −1. For female disabled spouses, we apply 

an adjustment, SSDD DD , to the tenth year of the projection period in order to match the 

projections made by the Short-Range office. We exponentially interpolate the values of 

pp RR RR

yy for intermediate years between pp RR RR

TT −1 and pp RR RR

TT +9 (equal to

pp RR RR

yy × DD DD ). After the 10th year of the projection period, we linearly grade 

the adjustment factors to one over the 10 years beyond the end of the short-range period, thus 

gradually eliminating the effect of the short-range adjustment factors, so that we ultimately 

return to the long-range projections.

For the projection period, for ages 65 to 69 where age is less than the NRA when the 

beneficiary was age 60, year pDSDWRES is equal to year pDSDWRES at age 64 times an adjustment 

that accounts for the additional ages as NRA changes.

FF FF aaaa = �

1, aa 60 ≥ aa + 1

aa 60 − aa , aa < aa 60 < aa + 1

pp RR

yy = pp RR RRyy ,64 × �

pp RR RR

yyyyyyyy,64

pp RR RR

yyyyyyyy,63�

( aaaa−64)

× FF FF aaaa, 65 ≤ age ≤ 69 and

 age < NRA at age 60

Equation 3.3.5 – Minor Children of Retired Workers (MCRWN)

We project the number of minor children of retired workers, MCRWN, by age of the minor 
224

(am = 0 to 17) and sex of the account holder (sa = 1 for male, sa = 2 for female). 

For children of male retired workers:

MM MM,

yy = h MM,yy × _ ss yyyyyyyy

pppppp_ ss yyyyyyyy

× pp RR RR

yy (3.3.5.1)

For the number of minor children of male retired workers, we multiply the number of 

children under the age of 18 with a father who is at least 62 years old and who’s other parent 

is not deceased ( h MM,

yy ) by the total number of male retired workers ages 62 to 71 

( _ss yy ) divided by the total number of males in the population ages 62 to 71 

(pp pp_ssuu yy ).

pMCRWRES represents the probability that a child who is eligible to receive minor-child 

benefits actually receives them. In the historical period, we calculate this as the ratio of the 

total number of minor children of retired workers actually receiving benefits to the total 

eligible to receive benefits.

pp RR RR

yy = MM MM

yy

h MM,

yy × _ss yy

pp pp_ss yy

For the projection period, we take the average of these ratios over the last ten historical years 

and phase it in using a linear interpolation between the average and pp RR RR

TT −1. We 

apply an adjustment, MCRW SRADJ , to the tenth year of the projection period in order to 

match the projections made by the Short-Range office. The adjustment factor is phased in 

over the first 10 years of the projection period with the full factor applied in the tenth year. 

After the 10th year of the projection period, we linearly grade these adjustment factors to one 

over the 10 years beyond the end of the short-range period, thus gradually eliminating the 

effect of the short-range adjustment factors, so that we ultimately return to the long-range 

projections.

For children of female retired workers:

MM FF,

yy = MM TTTTTT TT,MM

yyyyyyyy ×mmmmmm mmmmmmmm mm

1−mmmmmm mmmmmmmm mm ×

MM aa,FF

TT TT −1

MM TTTTTT TT,FF

TT TT −1 (3.3.5.2)

mcrwPrcntFem represents the average over the last five historical years of the percentage of 

the total number of minor children of female retired workers, ages 0 to 17, to the total 

number of minor children for both male and female retired workers.

MM TT TT,FF

yy

MM TT TT,FF

yy × MM TT TT,MMyy

We maintain the total MM 0−17,FF

YY at this percentage over the entire projection period by 

multiplying our estimate of MM 0−17,MM

YY by mcrwPrcntFem divided by its complement. 
225

MM 0−17,FF

YY = MM 0−17,MM

YY ×

1 −

In order to distribute MM 0−17,FF

YY among the ages 0 to 17, we multiply MM 0−17,FFYY by 

the proportion of beneficiaries at each age in the last historical year. 

Equation 3.3.6 – Minor Children of Deceased Workers (MCDWN )

Minor Children of Deceased Workers

Exposure: SSA population by age (0-17) and sex of the account holder

Linkages: pMCDWDEA = probability that the parent is either retired or deceased

pMCDWFIA = probability that the primary account holder (PAH) is fully 

insured

pMCDWRES = probability that a child who is eligible to receive minorchild benefits actually receive the benefits

We project the number of minor children of deceased workers, along with all linkage factors, 

by age of the minor (am = 0 to 17) and sex of the account holder (sa = 1 for male, sa = 2 for 

female). Additionally we apply an adjustment factor (IIIIIIII IIIIIIII( tt )) for the 2014 

immigration executive order by beneficiary type (typ = 9: minor child of deceased father; 10:

minor child of deceased mother). We calculate it as follows:

MM = MM PPPPPP × pp DDDDDD × pp FFFF × pp RR RR × IIIIIIII IIIIIIII( pp) (3.3.6)

MCDWPOP represents the subset of the population from which we draw these beneficiaries,

and we set it equal to the Social Security area population (SSAPOP).

MM PPPPPP = SSSSSS

pMCDWDEA represents the status of the parent (PAH). This is set equal to the portion of the 

minor population where at least one parent is deceased. CHI_DEA represents the number of 

children having at least one deceased parent. 

pp DDDDDD = _

MM PPPPPP

pMCDWFIA represents the probability that the parent (PAH) is fully insured. We set this 

equal to the portion of the population aged 25 + am to 35 + am where the PAH is fully 

insured (FI_PAH).

pp FFFF = ∑ [ SSSSSS × _ ] 35+

25+

∑ SSSSSS 35+

25+

pMCDWRES represents the probability that a child who is eligible to receive minor-child 

benefits actually receive the benefits. For all historical years, we calculate year pMCDWRES as 
226

the ratio of MCDWN, the actual number of minor children of deceased workers receiving 

benefits, to the number of persons meeting all previously mentioned requirements by age and 

sex of the parent.

pp RR RR

yy = MM

MM PPPPPP×pp DDDDDD×pp FFFF

, year < TRYR

For each age and sex of parent, we use a least squares regression over the last ten years of 

historical data to determine a starting value in TR-1 for year pMCDWRES from which we project 

future values. We apply an adjustment, MCDW SRADJ , to the tenth year of the projection 

period in order to match the projections made by the Short-Range office. We linearly 

interpolate the values of year pMCDWRES for intermediate years between the regressed values 

for TRYR−1 pMCDWRES and TRYR 9 MCDW

RES pMCDW SRADJ + × . After the 10th year of the projection 

period, we linearly grade the adjustment factors to one over the 10 years beyond the end of 

the short-range period, thus gradually eliminating the effect of the short-range adjustment 

factors, so that we ultimately return to the long-range projections.

Equations 3.3.7-8 – Student Children of Retired and Deceased Workers (SCRWN and SCDWN)

Student Children of Retired Workers

Exposure: SSA population by age of the student (18-21) and sex of the account holder

Linkages: pSCRWDEA = probability that at least one parent is retired

pSCRWAGA = probability that the primary account holder (PAH) is 

age 62 

or older

pSCRWFIA = probability that the PAH is fully insured

pSCRWCPA = probability that the PAH is receiving benefits

pSCRWSSB = probability that the child is indeed attending school

pSCRWRES = probability that a child who is eligible to receive studentchild benefits actually receives the benefits

Student Children of Deceased Workers

Exposure: SSA population by age of the student (18-21) and sex of the account holder

Linkages: pSCDWDEA = probability that at least one parent is deceased

pSCDWAGA = probability that the PAH is age 62 or older (set to 1)

pSCDWFIA = probability that the PAH is fully insured

pSCDWCPA = probability that the PAH is receiving benefits (set to 1)

pSCDWSSB = probability that the child is indeed attending school

pSCDWRES = probability that a child who is eligible to receive studentchild benefits actually receives the benefits

We project the number of student children of retired and deceased workers, along with all 

linkage factors, by age of the student (as = 18 to 19) and sex of the account holder (sa = 1 for 

male, sa = 2 for female). We calculate the projected number of student children of retired 

and deceased workers as follows:
227

= PP × pp DDDDDD × pp × pp FFFF

× pp � × pp × pp RR RR (3.3.7)

= PPPPPP × pp DDDDDD × pp × pp FFFF

× pp × pp × pp RR RR (3.3.8)

SCRWPOP and SCDWPOP represent the subset of the population from which these

beneficiaries are drawn, and we set them equal to the Social Security area population 

(SSAPOP).

PPPPPP = PPPPPP = SSSSSS

pSCRWDEA and pSCDWDEA represent the status of the parent (PAH). For student children 

of retired workers, we set this equal to the proportion of the subset of the population where 

neither parents are deceased. For student children of deceased workers, we set this equal to 

the proportion of the subset of the population where at least one parent is deceased. 

CHI_DEA represents the number of student children having at least one deceased parent. 

pp DDDDDD = 1 − _

PPPPPP

pp DDDDDD = _

PPPPPP

pSCRWAGA and pSCDWAGA represent the probability that the PAH is age 62 or older. For 

student children of retired workers, we set this equal to the proportion of the student 

population that has one parent age 62 or older, CHI_62+. For student children of deceased 

workers, we set the factor equal to one.

pp = _62 +

PPPPPP

pp = 1

pSCRWFIA and pSCDWFIA represent the probability that the PAH is fully insured. For 

student children of retired workers, we set this equal to the portion of the population aged 62 

to 64+as where the PAH is fully insured (FI_PAH). For student children of deceased 

workers, we calculate the factor similarly with the population being aged 25+as to 35+as.

pp FFFF = ∑ [ SSSSSS × _ ] 64+

62

∑ SSSSSS 64+

62
228

pp FFFF = ∑ [ SSSSSS × _ ] 35+

25+

∑ SSSSSS 35+

25+

pSCRWCPA and pSCDWCPA represent the probability that the PAH is receiving benefits. For 

student children of retired workers, we set this factor equal to the portion of the population 

aged 62 to 64+as where the PAH is receiving benefits (RETIRED). For student children of 

deceased workers, we set this factor equal to one.

pp = ∑ [ SSSSSS × _ × ] 64+

62

∑ [ SSSSSS × _ ] 64+

62

pp = 1

pSCRWSSB and pSCDWSSB represent the probability that the child is indeed attending school

(full-time elementary or secondary school). This factor is dependent upon the age of the 

child, and we calculate it as follows.

pp = pp =

⎩

⎪

⎨

⎪

⎧ 1

− 16 , ≤ 1981

0.5

− 16 , > 1981

pSCRWRES and pSCDWRES represent the probability that a child who is eligible to receive 

student-child benefits actually receive the benefits. For all historical years, we calculate year pSCRWRES and year pSCDWRES as the ratio of SCRWN and SCDWN, the actual number of 

student children receiving benefits, to the number of persons meeting all previously 

mentioned requirements by age and sex of the parent.

pp RR RR

yy = PPPPPP×pp DDDDDD×pp ×pp FFFF ×pp CC ×pp , year < TRYR

pp RR RR

yy = PPPPPP×pp DDDDDD×pp ×pp FFFF ×pp CC ×pp , year < TRYR

For each age and sex of parent, we use a least squares regression over the last ten years of 

historical data to determine a starting value in TR-1 for year pSCRWRES from which we project 

future values. We apply an adjustment, SCRW SRADJ , to the tenth year of the projection 

period in order to match the projections made by the Short-Range office. We linearly 

interpolate the values of year pSCRWRES for intermediate years between the regressed values for

TRYR−1 pSCRWRES and TRYR 9 SCRW

RES pSCRW SRADJ + × . After the 10th year of the projection period, 

we linearly grade the adjustment factors to one over the 10 years beyond the end of the short-
229

range period, thus gradually eliminating the effect of the short-range adjustment factors, so 

that we ultimately return to the long-range projections. We calculate the values of year pSCDWRES similarly.

Equations 3.3.9-10 – Disabled Adult Children of Retired and Deceased Workers (DCRWN and 

DCDWN)

Disabled Adult Children of Retired Workers

Exposure: SSA population by age of the adult child (18-95)

Linkages: pDCRWAGA = probability that the primary account holder (PAH) is age 62 

or older

pDCRWDEA = probability that the parent is retired

pDCRWFIA = probability that the PAH is fully insured

pDCRWCPA = probability that the PAH is receiving benefits

pDCRWSSB = probability that the child is indeed disabled

pDCRWRES = probability that a child who is eligible to receive 

disabledchild benefits actually receive benefits

Disabled Adult Children of Deceased Workers

Exposure: SSA population by age of the adult child (18-95)

Linkages: pDCDWAGA = probability that the PAH is age 62 or older (set to 1)

pDCDWDEA = probability that the parent is deceased

pDCDWFIA = probability that the PAH is fully insured

pDCDWCPA = probability that the PAH is receiving benefits (set to 1)

pDCDWSSB = probability that the child is indeed disabled

pDCDWRES = probability that a child who is eligible to receive disabledchild benefits actually receive the benefits

We project the number of disabled adult children of retired and deceased workers, along with 

all linkage factors, by age group of the disabled adult child (ad = 1-10) and sex of the 

account holder (sa = 1 for male, sa = 2 for female). The age groups are 18-19, 20-24, ..., 55-

59, 60+. Additionally we apply an adjustment factor (IIIIIIII IIIIIIII( tt )) for the 2014 

immigration executive order by beneficiary type (typ = 7: disabled adult child of retired male 

worker; 8: disabled adult child of female retired worker; 11: disabled adult child of deceased 

male worker; 12: disabled adult child of deceased female worker). We calculate the projected 

number of disabled adult children of retired and deceased workers as follows:

DCRWN = DCRWPOP × pDCRWAGA × pDCRWDEA × pDCRWFIA

× pp × pp × pp RR RR × IIIIIIII IIIIIIII( tt ) (3.3.9)

 

= PPPPPP × pp × pp DDDDDD × pp FFFF

× pp × pp × pp RR RR × IIIIIIII IIIIIIII( tt ) (3.3.10)
230

 

We calculate all factors similarly to those for student children with the exception of the 

following. 

pDCRWDEA is set equal to the proportion of the married and widowed population who are 

married (for ages of the parent that are reasonable based on the given age range of the 

disabled child). We calculate pDCDWDEA similarly for disabled children of deceased 

workers.

pp DDDDDD =

⎩

⎪

⎨

⎪

⎧ SSSSSSmmmmmm

SSSSSSmmmmmm + SSSSSSwwwwww

, = 1 − 9

0.25 × SSSSSSmmmmmm

SSSSSSmmmmmm + SSSSSSwwwwww

, = 10

pp DDDDDD =

⎩

⎪

⎨

⎪

⎧ SSSSSSwwwwww

SSSSSSmmmmmm + SSSSSSwwwwww

, = 1 − 9

0.25 × SSSSSSwwwwww

SSSSSSmmmmmm + SSSSSSwwwwww

+ 0.75, = 10

pDCRWSSB and pDCDWSSB represent the probability that the adult child is indeed disabled. 

DCPREM is the preliminary calculation of this factor and we assume it to remain constant. 

For the projection period, for ad=6-10, we set pDCRWSSB and pDCDWSSB equal to the 

preliminary factor, plus an adjustment which accounts for the year.

0.012, ad = 1-2

0.009, ad = 3

0.007, ad = 4

0.006, ad = 5

0.005, ad = 6

0.004, ad = 7-10

pp = pp = �

[0.005, + 0.0001 × ( − )], = 7 − 10 aa

> + 1

, ee h

pDCRWRES and pDCDWRES represent the probability that a child who is eligible to receive 

disabled-child benefits actually receive the benefits. For all historical years, we calculate year pDCRWRES and year pDCDWRES as the ratio of DCRWN and DCDWN, the actual number of 

disabled children receiving benefits, to the number of persons meeting all previously 

DCPREM =
231

mentioned requirements by age and sex of the parent.

For year < TRYR:

pp RR RR

yy = PPPPPP × pp DDDDDD × pp × pp FFFF × pp × pp

pp RR RR

yy = PPPPPP × pp DDDDDD × pp × pp FFFF × pp × pp

We apply an adjustment, DCRW SRADJ , to the tenth year of the projection period in order to 

match the projections made by the Short-Range office. We linearly interpolate the values of year pDCRWRES for intermediate years between TRYR−1 pDCRWRES and TRYR 9 DCRW

RES pDCRW SRADJ + × . 

After the 10th year of the projection period, we linearly grade the adjustment factors to one 

over the 10 years beyond the end of the short-range period, thus gradually eliminating the 

effect of the short-range adjustment factors, so that we ultimately return to the long-range 

projections. We calculate the values of year pDCDWRES similarly.

Equations 3.3.11-12 – Young Spouses of Retired and Deceased Workers (YSRWN and YSDWN)

Young Spouses of Retired Workers

Exposure: SSA population by age (15-69), sex of account holder, and marital status 

(married)

Linkages: pYSRWAGA = probability that the primary account holder (PAH) is of the 

required age.

pYSRWECB = probability that the young spouse has an entitled child in their 

care

pYSRWFSB = probability that the young spouse is not already receiving 

benefits based on another child in their care

pYSRWRES = probability that a person who is eligible to receive youngspouse benefits actually receive the benefits

Young Spouses of Deceased Workers

Exposure: SSA population by age (15-69), sex of the account holder and marital status 

(widowed and divorced)

Linkages: pYSDWDEA = probability that the PAH is deceased

pYSDWECB= probability that the young spouse has an entitled child in their

care

pYSDWFSB = probability that the young spouse is not already receiving 

benefits based on another child in their care

pYSDWRMB = probability that the young spouse is not remarried

pYSDWRES = probability that a person who is eligible to receive youngspouse benefits actually receive the benefits
232

We project the number of young spouses of retired and deceased-workers, along with all 

linkage factors, by age group (ab = 1-10) of the young spouse and sex of the account holder 

(sa = 1 for male, sa = 2 for female). We also project young spouses of deceased workers by 

marital status of the young spouse (mb = 1 for widowed and mb = 2 for divorced). For the 

young spouses of deceased worker we apply an additional adjustment factor 

(IIIIIIII IIIIIIII( tt )) for the 2014 immigration executive order by beneficiary type (typ = 13: 

male PAH; 14: female PAH). The age groups are under 25, 25-29 ..., 65-69. We calculate 

the projected number of young spouses of retired and deceased-workers as follows:

YY = YY PPPPPP × pp × pp × pp FF × pp RR RR (3.3.11)

YY = YY PPPPPP × pp DDDDDD × pp × pp FF

× pp RR × pp RR RR × IIIIIIII IIIIIIII( tt ) (3.3.12)

YSRWPOP and YSDWPOP represent the subset of the population from which we draw these

beneficiaries. We set YSRWPOP equal to the married Social Security area population 

(SSAPOPmar) and we set YSDWPOP equal to SSAPOPmb for mb = 1-2.

YY PPPPPP = SSSSSSmmmmmm

YY PPPPPP = SSSSSSmmmm

pYSRWAGA represents the probability that the PAH is of the required age. We set pYSRWAGA

equal to the portion of the married population who has an aged spouse (AGSP). 

pp = AA AA

YY PPPPPP

pYSDWDEA represents the probability that the PAH is deceased. For mb=1, we do not apply 

any factor. For mb=2, we set this factor equal to the portion of young spouses that is

widowed.

pp DDDDDD = �

1, mm = 1 (wwwwwwwwwwwwww)

SSSSSSwwwwww

SSSSSSwwwwww + SSSSSSmmmmmm

, mm = 2 ( )

pYSRWECB and pYSDWECB represent the probability that the young spouse has an entitled 

child in their care. We set pYSRWECB equal to the portion of persons meeting the previously 

mentioned requirements who have a minor or disabled adult child in their care. We set 

pYSDWECB ,by marital status, equal to the portion of persons meeting the previously 

mentioned requirements who have a minor or disabled adult child in their care. ab MCRWN

and ab DCRWN represent the total number of minor and disabled adult children of retired 

workers where the other parent (young spouse) is in the age bracket ab.
233

pp = MM +

YY PPPP × pp

pp mmmm =

(MM + ) × � YY PPPPPP

mmmm × pp DDDDDD

mmmm × pp mmmm

YY PPPPPP × pp DDDDDD × pp �

YY PPPPPP × pp DDDDDD

pYSRWFSB and pYSDWFSB represent the probability that the young spouse is not already 

receiving benefits based on another child in their care. We set this factor equal to one 

divided by the number of children in the average family (ASOFab) for the given age bracket 

of the spouse. For young spouses of retired workers, we do not apply a factor for sa=2.

pp FF =

⎩

⎪

⎨

⎪

⎧ 1

AAAA , ss = 1

1, ss = 2

pp FF = 1

AAAA

pYSDWRMB represents the probability that the spouse is not remarried. We assume this 

factor remains constant at 0.600.

pp RR = 0.600

pYSRWRES and pYSDWRES represent the probability that a person who is eligible to 

receive young-spouse benefits actually receive the benefits. For all historical years, we 

calculate year pYSRWRES as the ratio of YSRWN, the actual number of young spouses of retired 

workers receiving benefits, to the number of persons meeting all previously mentioned 

requirements by age, sex, and marital status. We calculate year pYSDWRES similarly, using the 

number of young spouses of deceased workers.

pp RR RR = YY

YY PPPPPP × pp × pp × pp FF

, <

pp RR RR = YY

YY PPPPPP × pp DDDDDD × pp × pp FF × pp RR

, <

For each age, sex , and marital status, we use a least squares regression over the last ten years 
234

of historical data to determine a starting value in TR-1 for year pYSRWRES . In addition, for each 

sex and marital status we graduate the regressed values of TRYR−1 pYSRWRES over age using a 

weighted minimized third-difference formula to compute YSRW ESTRES . YSRW ESTRES are 

the preliminary estimates of TRYR+9 pYSRWRES , the values in the tenth year of the projection 

period. For female young spouses, we apply an adjustment, YSRW SRADJ , to the tenth year of 

the projection period in order to match the projections made by the Short-Range office. We 

exponentially interpolate the values of year pYSRWRES for intermediate years between 

TRYR−1 pYSRWRES and TRYR+9 pYSRWRES (equal to YSRW YSRW ESTRES SRADJ × ). After the 10th year of 

the projection period, we linearly grade the adjustment factors to one over the 10 years 

beyond the end of the short-range period, thus gradually eliminating the effect of the shortrange adjustment factors, so that we ultimately return to the long-range projections. We 

calculate the values of year pYSDWRES similarly.

Equation 3.3.13 – Number of Deaths of Insured Workers (LUMSUMab)

We project the number of deaths of insured workers by sex and 5-year age group (ab = 1-14). 

Age groups include 20-24, 25-29,...,80-84, 85+. We calculate EXPOSUREab, the estimated 

number of lump-sum payments paid during the year for age group ab, as the number of total 

deaths during the year times the probability that the deceased was fully insured and has a 

surviving spouse or child. We calculate BASE as the ratio of the actual total amount of 

lump-sum death payments paid in TRYR-1 to the estimated total amount of lump-sum 

payments paid in TRYR-1. We then calculate LUMSUM ab for each year in the projection 

period.

LL LL = EE × (3.3.13)

Appendix 3.3-1: Glossary

AB: age group of the beneficiary

AD: age of the disabled child

AGSP: married population where at least one spouse is age 62 or older

AM: age of the minor child

ARFGT3: actuarial reduction factor for ages more than 3 years below normal retirement age

ARFLE3: actuarial reduction factor for ages less than 3 years below normal retirement age

AS: age of the student child

ASDW: aged spouse of deceased worker by linkage factor, age (60-95+), sex of the account 

holder, marital status (widowed, divorced) and insured status (insured, uninsured). Linkage 

factors are:

ASDWPOP : population of potential aged spouse of retired workers

DEA pASDW : probability that the primary account holder (PAH) is deceased

FIA pASDW : probability that the PAH was fully insured at death

MBB pASDW : probability that the widow(er) is not receiving a young-spouse benefit for 
235

the care of a child

FIB pASDW : probability that the aged widow(er) is fully insured

GPB pASDW : probability that the aged-widow(er)'s benefits are not withheld or offset 

totally because of receipt of a significant government pension based on 

earnings in noncovered employment

RES pASDW : probability that a widow(er) eligible to receive his/her own retired-worker 

benefits would instead apply for and receive widow(er) benefits

ASDWN: final number of aged spouse of deceased workers (product of all linkage factors)

ASOF: average number of children in a family, by age group (under 25, 25-29 ..., 60-64)

ASRW: aged spouse of retired worker by linkage factor, age (62-95+), sex of the account 

holder, and marital status of the beneficiary (married, divorced). Linkage factors are:

ASRWPOP : population of potential aged spouse of retired worker beneficiaries

DEA pASRW : probability that the primary account holder (PAH) is not deceased

AGA pASRW : probability that the PAH is of the required age

FIA pASRW : probability that the PAH is fully insured

CPA pASRW : probability that the PAH is receiving benefits

MBB pASRW : probability that the beneficiary is not receiving a young-spouse benefit

FIB pASRW : probability that the aged spouse is not fully insured

GPB pASRW : probability that the aged-spouse's benefits are not withheld because of 

receipt of a significant government pension based on earnings in 

noncovered employment

pASRWFS1: probability that a couple will engage in a filing strategy in which the PAH 

files for and suspends their benefit and an uninsured spouse receives an 

aged spouse benefit

pASRWFS2: probability that a couple will engage in a filing strategy in which the PAH 

files for and may or may not suspend their benefit and the fully insured for 

their aged spouse benefit.

RES pASRW : probability that a person who is eligible to receive aged-spouse benefits 

actually receive the benefits

ASRWN: final number of aged spouse of retired workers (product of all linkage factors)

AH: age of husband

AW: age of wife

BASE: ratio of actual to estimated total amount of lump-sum death payments paid in TRYR-1

BBA: Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015. A provision of this act closes unintended loopholes by 

eliminating (1) the ability to receive only a retired-worker benefit or an aged-spouse benefit 

when eligible for both, for those attaining age 62 in 2016 and later, and (2) the ability of a family 

member other than a divorced spouse to receive a benefit based on the earnings of a worker with 

a voluntarily suspended benefit, for voluntary suspensions requested after April 29, 2016.

CHI_62+: number of children having at least one parent aged 62 or older

CHI_DEA: number of children having at least one deceased parent

CON: number of persons converted from disabled-worker beneficiaries

DCDW: disabled child of deceased workers by linkage factor, age group of the child (18-19, 20-

24,..., 55-59, 60+) and sex of the account holder. Linkage factors are same as SCDW.
236

DCDWPOP : population of potential disabled children

AGA pDCDW : probability that the PAH is age 62 or older

DEA pDCDW : probability that the parent is either retired or deceased

FIA pDCDW : probability that the PAH is fully insured

pDCDWCPA : probability that the PAH is receiving benefits

pDCDWSSB : probability that the child is indeed disabled

pDCDWRES : probability that a child who is eligible to receive disabled-child benefits 

actually receive the benefits

DCDWN: final number of disabled children of deceased workers (product of all linkage factors)

DCPREM: preliminary calculation of the probability that a child is disabled, by age

DCRW: disabled child of retired workers by linkage factor, age group of the child (18-19, 20-

24,..., 55-59, 60+) and sex of the account holder. Linkage factors are same as those for DCDW.

DCRWN: final number of disabled children of retired workers (product of all linkage factors)

DIB: number of disabled-worker beneficiaries

DIFFADJ: adjustment that accounts for the difference between the actual and estimated 

prevalence rate at each age in the most recent historical years

DISPREV: disability prevalence rate by age and sex

DRC: delayed retirement credit

DSDW: disabled spouse of deceased worker by linkage factor, age (50-69), sex of the account 

holder, and marital status (widowed, divorced). Linkage factors are:

DSDWPOP : population of potential beneficiaries

DEA pDSDW : probability that the primary account holder (PAH) is deceased

FIA pDSDW : probability that the PAH was fully insured at death

SSB pDSDW : probability that the spouse is indeed disabled

DEB pDSDW : probability that the disabled spouse is not receiving another type of benefit

pDSDWRES : probability that a person who is eligible to receive disabled-spouse 

benefits actually receive the benefits

DSDWN: final number of disabled spouse of deceased workers (product of all linkage factors)

ERROR: actual prevalence rate minus the regressed prevalence rate in the most recent historical 

year

ESTPR: preliminary estimate of the prevalence rate for retired workers

ESTRES: preliminary estimate of the RES factor for the tenth year of the projection period

EXPOSURE: estimated number of lump-sum payments by age group (20-24, 25-29,...,80-84, 

85+)

FACTOR: adjustment for calculation of MBB factor of aged spouse of deceased worker

FINS: portion of the SSA population that is fully insured

FI_PAH: portion of married population where one spouse is fully insured

FP: status of the parent (retired, deceased)

GPOAGE: portion, by age, of the total beneficiaries expected to receive a significant 

government pension

GPWHLD: total number of beneficiaries (for all ages) expected to receive a significant 

government pension

IMMEAFACT: Adjustment factors applied to auxiliary beneficiary categories due to the 2014 
237

immigration executive action by sex for years 2016-2095. Factors are computed for aged 

spouses of deceased workers (widow(er)s), aged spouses of retired workers, disabled adult 

children of retired workers, minor children of deceased workers, disabled adult children of 

deceased workers, and young spouses of deceased workers.

IN: insured status of the beneficiary

LFPR: labor force participation rates for age 62, by sex

LUMSUM: number of deaths of insured workers by sex and age group (20-24,...,80-84,85+)

MAR62PLUS: number of couples where both husband and wife are age 62 and over

MS: marital status of the primary account holder

MB: marital status of the beneficiary

MBAPIA: ratio of the monthly benefit amount (MBA) to the primary insurance amount (PIA) 

by age (62-70) and sex

MCDW: minor children of deceased workers by linkage factor, age of the child (0-17) and sex 

of the account holder. Linkage factors are:

MCDWPOP : population of potential minor children

DEA pMCDW : probability that the parent is either retired or deceased

FIA pMCDW : probability that the PAH is fully insured

RES pMCDW : probability that a child who is eligible to receive minor-child benefits 

actually receive the benefits

MCDWN: final number of minor children of deceased workers (product of all linkage factors)

MCRW: minor children of retired workers by linkage factor, age of the child (0-17) and sex of 

the account holder.

MCRWN: final number of minor children of retired workers (product of all linkage factors)

NRA: normal retirement age

PAH: primary account holder

REGPR: regressed prevalence rate for retired workers

RETIRED: number of retired workers receiving benefits

RW: retired workers by linkage factor, age (62-95+), sex, and marital status (single, married, 

widowed, divorced). Linkage factors are: 

RWPOP : population of potential retired-worker beneficiaries

FIA pRW : probability that the primary account holder (PAH) is insured

DBB pRW : probability that the PAH is not receiving a disabled-worker benefit

pRWWBB : probability that the PAH is not receiving a widow(er) benefit

RES pRW : retirement prevalence rate; probability that a fully insured worker (not 

receiving disability or widow(er)’s benefits) would receive a retiredworker benefit

RWN: final number of retired workers (product of all linkage factors)

SA: sex of the account holder

SCDW: student children of deceased workers by linkage factor, age of the student (18-21) and 

sex of the account holder. Linkage factors are:

SCDWPOP : population of potential student children

DEA pSCDW : probability that the parent is either retired or deceased

pSCDWAGA : probability that the PAH is age 62 or older
238

FIA pSCDW : probability that the PAH is fully insured

CPA pSCDW : probability that the PAH is receiving benefits

SSB pSCDW : probability that the child is indeed attending school

pSCDWRES : probability that a child who is eligible to receive student-child benefits 

actually receive the benefits

SCDWN: final number of student children of deceased workers (product of all linkage factors)

SCRW: student children of retired workers by linkage factor, age of the student (18-21) and sex 

of the account holder. Linkage factors are same as SCDW.

SCRWN: final number of student children of retired workers (product of all linkage factors)

SRADJ: adjustment to match short-range projections in 10th year of projection period

SSAPOP: Social Security area population by age (0:100), sex, and marital status (single, 

married, widowed, divorced)

SX: sex of the beneficiary

TRYR: first year of the projection period

WEIGHT: estimated probability applied to each possible age of the spouse, given the age of the 

primary account holder

YSDW: young spouse of deceased worker by linkage factor, age group (under 25, 25-29,...,65-

69), sex of the account holder and marital status (widowed, divorced). Linkage factors are:

YSDWPOP : population of potential young spouse of deceased workers

DEA pYSDW : probability that the primary account holder (PAH) is of the required age

ECB pYSDW : probability that the young spouse has an entitled child in their care

FSB pYSDW : probability that the young spouse is not already receiving benefits based 

on another child in their care

pYSDWRMB: probability that the young spouse is not remarried

RES pYSDW : probability that a person who is eligible to receive young-spouse benefits 

actually receive the benefits

YSDWN: final number of young spouse of deceased workers (product of all linkage factors)

YSRW: young spouse of retired worker by linkage factor, age group (under 25, 25-29,...,65-69) 

and sex of the account holder. Linkage factors are:

YSRWPOP : population of potential young spouse of retired workers

AGA pYSRW : probability that the primary account holder (PAH) is of the required age

ECB pYSRW : probability that the young spouse has an entitled child in their care

pYSRWFSB : probability that the young spouse is not already receiving benefits based 

on another child in their care

pYSRWRES : probability that a person who is eligible to receive young-spouse benefits

actually receive the benefits

YSRWN: final number of young spouse of retired workers (product of all linkage factors)
239

Process 4:

Trust Fund

Operations &

Actuarial Status
240

4. Trust Fund Operations and Actuarial Status

OCACT uses the Trust Fund Operations and Actuarial Status Process to project (1) the annual 

flow of income from payroll taxes, taxation of benefits, and interest on assets in the trust fund 

and (2) the annual flow of cost from benefit payments, administration of the program, and 

railroad interchange. The annual flows are projected for each year of the 75-year projection 

period. In addition, this subprocess produces annual and summarized values to help access the 

financial status of the Social Security program.

The Trust Fund Operations and Actuarial Status Process is composed of three subprocesses: 

TAXATION OF BENEFITS, AWARDS, and COST. As a rough overview, TAXATION OF 

BENEFITS projects, for each year during the 75-year projection period, the amount of income 

from taxation of benefits as a percent of benefits paid. AWARDS projects information needed to 

determine the benefit levels of newly awarded retired workers and disabled workers by age and 

sex. COST uses information from the AWARDS and TAXATION OF BENEFITS 

subprocesses, as well as information from other processes, to project the annual flow of income 

and cost to the trust funds. In addition, COST produces annual and summarized measures of the 

financial status of the Social Security program. 
241

4.1. TAXATION OF BENEFITS

4.1.a. Overview 

The 1983 Social Security Act specifies including up to 50 percent of the Social Security 

benefits to tax return filer’s adjusted gross income (AGI) for tax liability if a tax return 

filer’s adjusted gross income plus half of his (or her) Social Security benefits is above the 

specified income threshold amount of $25,000 as a single filer (or $32,000 as a joint 

filer). Subsequently, the 1993 OBRA (Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act) provided for 

taxation of up to 85 percent if a tax return filer’s adjusted gross income plus half of his 

(or her) Social Security benefits is above the specified income threshold amount of 

$34,000 as a single filer (or $44,000 as a joint filer). 

The proceeds from taxing up to 50 percent of the OASDI benefits, as a result of the 1983 

Act, are credited to the OASI and DI Trust Funds, while additional taxes on the OASDI 

benefits, as a result of the 1993 Act, are credited to the HI Trust Fund.

Income to the Trust Funds from such taxation is estimated by using ratios of taxes on 

benefits to benefits for the OASI and DI programs separately. These ratios, called 

“RTBs”, are applied to projected OASI and DI benefit amounts to estimate tax revenues

to the OASI and DI Trust Funds. 

For the short range period (first 10 years of the projection), the Cost sub-process (4.3)

uses OTA (Office of Tax Analysis)’s projected estimates for (1) the percent of benefits 

taxable and (2) the average marginal tax rates applicable to those taxable OASI and DI 

benefits. The multiplication of (1) and (2) produces projected RTBs under the 1983 Act 

(up to 50 percent of benefits taxable) and the 1993 OBRA (additional up to 35 percent of 

benefits taxable).

For the long range period (11th through 75th year of the projection period), the RTB ratios 

for OASI benefits and those for DI benefits under the 1983 Act and the combined 1983 + 

1993 Act are computed with the following formula for each projection year.

RTB(yr) = RTB(tryr+9) * {AWI(tryr+9)/AWI(yr)}^P + 

 RTB(ultimate)*{1- AWI(tryr+9)/AWI(yr)}^P, (4.1.1)

where

 tryr = first year of the projection period (year of the Trustees Report) 

 

 RTB(ultimate) = ratio of taxes on benefits to benefits assuming income

 thresholds equal zero.

 

 AWI = SSA average wage index series

 P = exponential parameter for a trend curve line.

Finally, the Cost sub-process (4.3) applies the projected RTB ratios to its own estimates 
242

of the projected OASI and DI benefit payments to produce taxation of benefit revenues to 

the OASI and DI Trust Funds.

4.1.b. Input Data

OCACT Data

Economics--process 2

- Projected SSA wage index series by year, updated yearly

- Projected COLAs and average wage index levels under the intermediate 

assumptions of the prior Trustees Report

Beneficiaries--process 3

- Projected OASI beneficiaries by age and sex under the intermediate 

assumptions of the prior Trustees Report

- Projected DI beneficiaries by age and sex under the intermediate 

assumptions of the prior Trustees Report

Trust Fund Operations--process 4

- Aggregate OASI and DI benefit ratios (as a ratio of total OASDI benefits) 

under the intermediate assumptions of the prior Trustees Report

Other

- Aggregate OASDI benefit payments for calendar year ni-3 (ni = initial 

projection year, e.g, 2013 for the 2016 Trustees Report)

Other input Data

- OTA’s projected percent of benefits taxable and average marginal tax 

rates by type of benefit (OASI and DI) for the short range period (updated 

yearly).

- OTA’s ultimate ratios of taxes on benefits to benefits (i.e., with income 

thresholds, assumed equal to 0). Such ultimate ratios are provided on a 

combined OASDI benefit basis, and are expected to be updated annually 

based on OTA’s update.

- Current Population Survey (CPS) data for year ni-3

- Personal income tax brackets for tax year ni-3 

- Marginal income tax rates for tax year ni-3 
243

- General filing requirement amounts (standard deduction amounts) for 

personal income tax purposes for tax year ni-3

- Ratios of taxable income to adjusted gross income by income level (IRS 

data) for tax year ni-3

- Treasury’s aggregate taxable benefit amount (IRS data) for tax year ni-3

- OTA’s estimated taxes on benefits for the OASDI and HI Trust Funds for 

tax year ni-3

4.1.c. Development of Output

For the short range period, the Cost sub-process (4.3) uses OTA’s projected RTBs for 

OASI and DI benefits under the 1983 Act, to project taxation of benefit revenues to the 

OASI and DI Trust Funds.

For the long range period, formula 4.1.1 computes projected ratios of taxes on OASI 

benefits to OASI benefits and projected ratios of taxes on DI benefits to DI benefits under 

the 1983 Act (up to 50 percent of benefits taxable). This formula essentially provides 

more weight to the ultimate RTB ratios as time progresses, using the ratio of AWI (10th

year) to AWI (projection year) as the “weight.” Additionally, an exponential parameter P 

value to the AWI “weights” is set judgmentally such that the estimate continues the short 

range trend into the transitional 11th through 20th projection years before it approaches the 

ultimate RTB ratio. For the RTB ratios for up to 50 percent of benefits taxable, the P 

values were set at 0.98 and 0.93 to project smooth transitional RTB ratios for OASI and 

DI benefits, respectively.

The ultimate RTB ratios used in the projection are based on OTA’s ultimate ratios, 

reduced by about 4.0 percent. This reduction reflects estimates of the effect of the higher 

proportion of “old elderly” beneficiaries in the 2090 OASDI beneficiary population 

distribution relative to the 2025 OASDI beneficiary population distribution, due to 

improved mortality. 

For the 2016 Trustees Report, the ultimate RTB ratios for up to 50 percent of OASI and 

DI benefits taxable were set at 0.058 and 0.029, as compared to 0.056 and 0.028 for the 

2015 TR ultimate ratios. Slight increases in the ultimate RTB ratios reflect OTA’s 

updated zero threshold estimates. 

Lastly, the Cost sub-process (4.3) applies these projected RTB ratios to projected OASI 

and DI benefit payments to develop estimated taxation of benefit revenues to the OASI 

and DI Trust Funds.
244

4.2. AWARDS

Each year over 2 million workers begin receiving either retired-worker or disabled-worker 

benefits. The monthly benefits for these new awards are based on their primary insurance 

amount (PIA). The PIA is computed using the average indexed monthly earnings (AIME) and 

the PIA benefit formula as specified in the 1977 amendments. The AIME depends on the 

worker’s number of computation years, Y, and the earnings in each year. For retired-worker 

beneficiaries who have attained or will attain age 62 in 1991 or later, Y = 35.

The AWARDS subprocess (AWARDS) selects records from a 10 percent sample of newly 

entitled worker beneficiaries obtained from the Master Beneficiary Record (MBR).1

 The 

selected sample, referred to as “sample”, contains 293,892 beneficiary records, and each 

record, r, includes a worker’s history of taxable earnings under the OASDI program as well as 

additional information such as sex, birth date, month of initial entitlement, and type of benefit 

awarded. To estimate the benefit levels of future newly entitled worker beneficiaries, 

AWARDS modifies the earnings records in the sample to reflect the expected work histories 

and earnings levels of future beneficiaries (equation 4.2.1). After the modifications, 

AWARDS computes an AIME for each record in the future sample of beneficiaries (equation 

4.2.2). AWARDS subdivides the AIME value of each record into bend point subintervals2

(equation 4.2.3). As input to the Cost subprocess, the AIME values are used to calculate 

aggregate percentages of AIME in each bend point subinterval for each age at entitlement, sex 

and trust fund (equation 4.2.4). Equations 4.2.1 through 4.2.4 outline the overall structure and 

solution sequence. The subscript n refers to the bend point subinterval and r refers to the 

sample record.

 Projected Earnings = Projected Earnings (∙) (4.2.1)

 AIME(r) = 12

Highest Indexed Earnings( )

∗

∑

Y

Y r (4.2.2)

 AIME (r) n = AIME n (∙) (4.2.3)

 PAPn = ∑

∑

r

n

r

n r

bp

AIME ( )

 (4.2.4)

where bpn is the length of the nth bend point subinterval,

Y is the number of computation years, and

AIMEn (r) is the AIME amount contained within the nth interval for record r.

 1 A record is selected if the year of initial entitlement equals 2013 as of the December 2015 MBR extract file date, 

and the beneficiary is not in death status as of the December 2013 MBR extract file date. Retired beneficiaries 

over age 70 and disability beneficiaries under age 20 are excluded.

2 The current law PIA formula has two bend points. For the purposes of PAP, the Awards subprocess instead uses 

30 subintervals.
245

4.2.b. Input Data

Long-Range OCACT Projection Data

Demography–

• Total Social Security area population (as of July) by sex and age.

o From 1951 to 2095

o Updated annually

• Other-than-legal population (as of July) by sex and age

o From 1964 to 2095

o Updated annually

• Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) population (as of July) by sex and 

age.

o From 2012 to 2095

o Updated annually

• Deferred Action for Parental Accountability (DAPA) population (as of July) by sex 

and age.

o From 2014 to 2095

o Updated annually

Economics –

• Covered workers by sex and age—with earnings posted to the Master Earnings File 

(MEF) only. - used with CWHS data to project future earnings levels

o From 1951 to 2095

o Updated annually

• Covered workers not in the other-than-legal population by sex and age —with 

earnings posted to the Master Earnings File (MEF) only

o From 1951 to 2095

o Updated annually

• Average Wage Index (AWI), projected values.

o From 2014 to 2095

o Updated annually

• Total taxable earnings and number of workers with taxable earnings by age, sex, 

and year from the Continuous Work History Sample (CWHS).

o From 1951 to 2013

o Updated annually

• Historical Average Taxable Earnings (ATE) —with earnings posted to the Master 

Earnings File (MEF) only – used with CWHS data to project future earnings levels

o From 1951 to 2014 (only 2013-2014 data used in SOSI) 

o Updated annually

• Projected Average Taxable Earnings (ATE) —with earnings posted to the Master 

Earnings File (MEF) only – used with CWHS data to project future earnings levels

o From 2015 to 2095 

o Updated annually

• Projected Covered Worker Rate based on total covered workers/total population 

(not used in SOSI)
246

o From 2015 to 2095

o Updated annually

• COLA (Cost Of Living Adjustment) – not used in SOSI

o From 2015 to 2095

o Updated annually

• Projected Wage Base (current law)

o From 2017 to 2095

o Updated annually

Fully Insured –

• Historical and projected fully insured rates by sex and single year of age 14-95

o From 1969 to 2095

o Updated annually

Beneficiaries –

• Distribution of newly entitled retired worker beneficiaries–projected weighted ratio 

of beneficiary for retired worker by year, sex and single year of age 62-70

o From 2015 to 2095

o Updated annually

Other input data

• 10% Awards Sample from the MBR and Master Earnings File

o Newly entitled OASI / DI beneficiaries, whose initial entitlement year was 

2013 as of the December 2015 MBR extract file date, and the beneficiary is 

not in death status as of the December 2013 MBR extract file date. 

 SSN

 Type of benefit

 Type of claim (retirement or disability)

 Sex

 Date of birth

 Date of initial entitlement

 Date of disability onset

 PIA amount

 Type of dual entitlement

 Dual entitlement status code

 PIFC

 LAF

 Eligibility year

 Trust fund

 Earnings histories for each worker from 1951 to 2013

o Generally updated annually, pending validation of the sample

• AWI, Average Wage Index, historical values

o From 1951 to 2014

o Data obtained from OCACT internet site.

o Updated annually

• Wage base

o From 1951 to 2016

o Data obtained from OCACT internet site.
247

o Updated annually

• COLA, cost of living adjustment – not used in SOSI

o From 1975 to 2014

o Data obtained from OCACT internet site.

o Updated annually

• Amount of earnings needed to earn one quarter of coverage

o From 1951 to 2016

o 1978-2016 data obtained from OCACT internet site. 1951-1977 values 

estimated by applying projection methodology backwards from 1978.

o Updated annually

• Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) factors, the % of sample cases affected by 

the WEP which will no longer be affected by the WEP, by sex and projection year

o From 2015 to 2095

o Data obtained from OCACT internal calculations

o Updated annually 

• PIA bend points – not used in SOSI (expect for 1979 bend points)

o From 1979 to 2016

o Data obtained from OCACT internet site.

o Updated annually

• Hypothetical Wage Base (to reflect relative changes in relative taxable maximum 

levels over time)

o From 1951 to 2016

o Updated annually

• Projected DAPA disabled worker and retired worker entitlements

o From 2017 to 2095

o Based on application of ratio of DAPA entitlements divided by DAPA 

population from 2015TR intermediate assumptions, applied to DAPA 

population based on 2016TR intermediate assumptions

4.2.c. Development of Output

All equations described below are projected separately for the OASI and DI program.

Equation 4.2.1 – Projected Earnings

In order to estimate future benefit levels, the work histories and earnings levels in the current 

sample must be modified to represent those for a sample of worker beneficiaries who are 

newly entitled in future years. Three distinct modifications are made to the earnings records. 

For each future year, changes are made to the earnings records in order to reflect:

• Changes in Wage Bases. 

For some years, the projected wage base (contribution and benefit base), on an AWI 

discounted basis, is higher than the historical wage base. Therefore, the taxable 

earnings of future beneficiaries may need to include covered earnings above the 
248

reported historical wage base. Thus, for each record with reported taxable earnings at 

the wage base in a given year, AWARDS imputes his/her covered earnings.

• Changes in Covered Worker Rates. 

Adjustments are made to work histories to be consistent with the projected changes in 

the economy-wide covered worker rates. Economy-wide covered worker rates are

defined as the ratio of “legal” covered workers (from Economics subprocess) to the 

Social Security area “legal” population (from Demography subprocess). See the below 

detailed section “Changes in Covered Worker Rates” for more information.

• Earnings Experience in the CWHS3

. 

Earning levels are modified to capture the changes to date that are reflected in the 

average taxable earnings reported in the CWHS by age and sex and the changes 

expected in the future.

Change in Wage Bases

The earnings posted in the sample are limited by the historical wage base (contribution and 

benefit base). Prior to 1975, the maximum annual amount of earnings on which OASDI taxes 

were paid was determined by ad hoc legislation. After 1974, however, the annual maximum 

level was legislated to be determined automatically, based on the increase in the Social 

Security Average Wage Index (AWI). Prior to these automatic wage base increases, a 

relatively large portion of workers earned amounts above the base. Additional legislation 

raising the annual maximum taxable amount occurred in 1979, 1980, and 1981 to improve the 

financial future of the OASDI Trust Funds. In addition, the AWI used in the automatic 

calculation of the annual taxable maximum was modified in the early 1990s to include deferred 

compensation amounts. 

Therefore, for each record in the sample with earnings at the wage base, AWARDS imputes 

covered earnings above the historical wage base in order to reflect higher maximum taxable 

amounts imposed on future newly entitled beneficiaries. Please refer to appendix 4.2-1 at the 

end of this subprocess for details of this imputation. Then, these projected covered earnings 

are capped at the wage base values that would be in effect for future samples of retired workers 

(using the “projected wage base” input file) to determine the taxable earnings to use in the 

benefit calculations. 

Change in Covered Worker Rates

The sample’s covered worker rate by age group and sex is defined as the ratio of (1) the 

number of those beneficiaries with covered earnings in the sample to (2) the total number of 

beneficiaries in the sample. For both males and females, the work histories are modified to 

reflect changes in the covered worker rates that would apply to a future sample of 

 3 This file is a 1% sample of individuals who had covered earnings at some point in their work histories.
249

beneficiaries. These changes in the covered worker rates are based on changes in the economywide covered worker rates. The economy-wide covered worker rate is defined for an age-sex 

group in a particular period which represents a future sample cohort as the ratio of (1) the 

number of “legal” workers in the economy in this group that have some earnings in this period, 

to (2) the total midyear “legal” population in this group in this period.

4 Economy-wide covered 

worker rates are calculated separately for each age-sex group and each historical and projected 

calendar year based on input data from the Economics, Demography, and Fully Insured

subprocesses.

In projecting sample covered worker rates, examination is done of the change in adjusted

economy-wide covered worker rates, by age group, between the “base period” (representing 

individuals retiring in the sample year) and the “projection period” (representing individuals 

retiring in a year later than the sample year). The adjusted economy-wide covered worker rates 

in the base year take into account 60% of the change in projected age-62 fully insured rates 

relative to the base year, based on analyses of historical data. That is, for each projection year, 

the method estimates what the base year economy wide covered worker rates would have been 

if the fully insured rates in the base year matched those in the projection year. Details of how 

this change is used to estimate the change in a covered worker rate for retired workers from a

current period in the sample to a future period are given below. The method used is the same 

for males and females in projecting sample covered worker rates. For additional explanation 

of this calculation, refer to example 1.1 in appendix 4.2-2 of this subprocess.

Projected sample covered worker rate equals (for increasing economy-wide rates):

• The ratio of (1) the potential difference in the economy-wide male (or female)

covered worker rate in the projection year to (2) the potential difference in the 

adjusted economy-wide male (or female) covered worker rate in the sample year 

(i.e., 1 – adjusted economy-wide male (or female) covered worker rate), 

multiplied by 

• The corresponding potential difference in the sample’s male (or female) covered 

worker rates (i.e,. 1 – sample male (or female) covered worker rate)). 

• The above result is subtracted from 1 to get the projected sample covered worker 

rate.

This presentation above presumes that economy-wide covered rates increase over time, which 

is very common for females but not always true for males. The calculation of the change in 

covered worker rate differs if there is a reduction in relevant economy-wide covered worker 

rates. Example 1.2 gives an example of the calculations done for males and females if 

economy-wide covered worker rates decline.

 4 For this purpose, we define the “legal” population as the total SSA area population minus the other-than-legal 

population (those in the U.S. illegally and those in the U.S. on a temporary basis, e.g., individuals with specific 

non-immigrant worker or student visas) plus the DACA population and the DAPA population (DACA and DAPA 

individuals are included in the other-than-legal data but have been effectively made legal, for Social Security 

purposes, by legislation or executive order).
250

A similar procedure exists for projecting sample covered worker rates for disabled workers, 

except that the calculations are further broken down by entitlement age group. See Example 

1.3 for an example, for male disabled workers. 

Once the covered worker rates for the future sample of beneficiaries are determined, 

modifications to work histories of the sample to attain these rates are generally done by 

randomly removing or adding earnings.

5

 For males, the procedure is to select records 

randomly. However, for females, an additional selection criterion is included in order to 

achieve a specified distribution of the number of years of earnings for retired female 

beneficiaries. Female records with 10 or fewer years of earnings are not modified. A 

distribution limit is set for those female workers with 11 to 25 total years of career earnings 

within the projection year. This distributional limit changes each projected year. In the first 

year after the sample year, the distribution limit for females is equal to the male distribution 

plus 97% of the difference between the initial male and female distributions within the sample. 

In each subsequent year, the percentage decreases by three percent until it reaches 0%. Thus, 

the females’ years of earnings distribution for those with 11 to 25 years of earnings is adjusted

to approach that of the males. 

If a record is selected for adding earnings in a particular year, the amount of earnings added is 

based on the career earnings pattern of the selected record. When earnings are added to a 

record, AWARDS calculates the ratio of (1) the record’s Average Indexed Earnings, AIE6

, to

(2) the AIE of a hypothetical worker, w, whose year of birth and sex are the same as the record 

and whose annual earnings are set equal to average taxable earnings. For this purpose, 

average taxable earnings are determined by averaging the earnings over all records in the

sample with the same sex and year of birth. Then, the preliminary amount of earnings7 in year t

that is added to the record is

 Earnings(r, t) = PreATEf(sex, t) * 

AIE( )

AIE( )

w

r ,

where PreATEf(sex, t) is the average taxable earnings in year t, for those in the sample 

with the same sex as that of the record, for those retiring in year f. 

For additional explanation of this calculation, refer to example 2 in appendix 4.2-2 of this 

subprocess. Note that all earnings levels get further adjusted by earnings experience in the 

CWHS for recent workers, as discussed in the below section.

Earnings Experience in the CWHS

 5 Individuals in the sample affected by the Windfall Elimination Provision are less likely to have earnings

removed or added by this process.

6 AIE is the average indexed annual earnings, average over the highest Y years of earnings (similar to AIME, but 

an annual amount).

7 In this subprocess, earnings histories of projected beneficiaries are all reflected as wage-indexed earnings 

histories in the 2013 sample.
251

For historical years beginning with 1951, AWARDS uses average taxable earnings by age and 

sex (CWHSATEas) and numbers of covered workers by age and sex (CWHSCWas) as tabulated 

from the most recent CWHS file8

. To estimate ATE levels for the first projection year, the 

AWARDS uses the average values of normalized average taxable earnings calculated from the 

last five historical years of the most recent CWHS file. These computed normalized values 

take into account changes in aggregate ATEs from the Economics subprocess between each of 

the five historical years and the first projection year; this allows the comparison of 

corresponding values from different years in a way that reduces time series effects. For future 

years, AWARDS projects these values (ATEs and taxable earnings) from this base year (the 

first projection year). 

Projections are made for each year after the base year through the end of the 75-year projection 

period using projected economy-wide number of covered workers by age and sex and 

aggregate annual average taxable earnings (ATE) from the Economics process9. The first step 

is to determine preliminary CWHSATE'as (preliminary average taxable earnings by age and sex) 

by using the annual growth rate in the total economy-wide ATE and projected number of 

covered workers from the Economics process. A further multiplicative adjustment is made to 

each CWHSATE'as such that the resulting aggregate average taxable earnings, determined by 

combining the projected values of covered workers from the Economics process and 

CWHSATEas for the year, produces the same aggregate ATE level for that year as projected by 

the Economics process. 

For additional explanation of this calculation, refer to example 3 in appendix 4.2-2 of this 

subprocess.

The historical and projected CWHSATEas are then used to change the earnings histories of the 

sample of newly entitled beneficiaries so that the earnings better represent newly entitled 

beneficiaries in future years. For a given sex, trust fund, and earnings year, the expected 

annual average taxable earnings of a future sample is denoted as ATEf'. ATEf' equals the 

sample’s average taxable earnings for a specific earnings year, multiplied by the comparable 

changes in the CWHSATEas, that is, the wage-indexed changes in the CWHSATEas between the 

year of earnings in the sample of new beneficiaries and the year of earnings in the projected 

sample. For OASI, the projected CWHSATEas are determined using the age distribution of 

newly entitled retired worker beneficiaries in the projection year as weights. For DI, the 

projected CWHSATEas are determined using the historical and projected number of covered 

workers for all ages corresponding to the earnings year as weights. Refer to example 3.1 in 

appendix 4.2-2 for additional explanation.

ATEf' is then compared to the average taxable earnings of the sample (after adjustments to the 

records’ earnings levels for changes in wage bases and covered worker rates), denoted as ATEf

and computed by sex, trust fund, and earnings year. The difference between these values is the 

amount by which the average annual earnings levels are adjusted. Let

 8 These historical values are tabulated by the Economic subprocess.

9 These values are based on earnings posted to the Master Earnings File (MEF), excluding earnings posted to the 

suspense file.
252

f ATEf δ(t) = ATE ' − ,

for each year t. Denote the total workers in the sample in year t as TotalWorkers(t). Then, 

(δ(t) * TotalWorkers(t)) is the total amount of earnings which the model distributes for a given

sex and age group in a way so that the average taxable earnings after distribution is ATEf'. 

For additional explanation of the calculation δ(t), refer to example 4 in the appendix 4.2-2.

When δ(t) is negative, earnings for the year are decreased. To achieve ATEf' for the given sex 

and age-group, AWARDS multiplies CoveredEarnings(r, t) by a ratio, 

α

δ = + +

ATE ( )

( ) ratio( ) 1

f t

t

t .

The term, α, is an additional adjustment necessary because covered earnings near or above the 

wage base, may have either a partial effect or no effect on modifying ATEf to ATEf'. These α 

values vary by sex, trust fund, and whether earnings increase or decrease. In the 2016 Trustees 

Report, for OASI, α is set equal to -0.075 for males and -0.05 for females when the earnings 

are decreasing; and α is 0.03 for males and 0.05 for females when the earnings are increasing. 

Similarly, for DI, α is set equal to -0.075 for males and -0.08 for females when the earnings are 

decreasing; and α is 0.065 for males and 0.005 for females when the earnings are increasing. 

These α values are set to best target ATEf' while making adjustments throughout as many of 

the sample records as possible. 

As AWARDS applies ratio(t) to Earnings(r, t) by each record, it makes sure that the total 

earnings adjustment in a year does not exceed δ(t)*TotalWorkers(t). For additional 

explanation of this calculation, refer to example 5 in appendix 4.2-1 of this subprocess.

Equation 4.2.2 – Average Indexed Monthly Earnings (AIME)

Step 1: Index Earnings

To compute an individual’s AIME, all taxable earnings after 1950 are considered. First, the 

earnings are indexed up to the index year, i, which is defined as the year of attaining age 60 for 

retired-worker beneficiaries (eligible for benefits at age 62). For disabled-worker 

beneficiaries, i is set to be 2 years before the sample year. Thus, 











≥

∗ < =

i

i

t

i

r t

Earnings(r, t), if t

, if t

AverageWage ( )

AverageWage ( ) Earnings( , ) IndexedEarnings(r,t)

Step 2: Determine Computation Years
253

For each record, the number of computation years, Y, is determined. For a retired-worker 

beneficiary in the sample, Y is 35. 

For a disabled-worker beneficiary, Y is calculated as follows:

•Determine the number of elapsed years, which is equal to the year of disability onset (not 

later than the year the worker turned age 62) minus the greater of 1951 or the year the 

disabled worker turned age 22. 

Elapsed Years = min{Year of disability onset, Year attained age 62}− max{1951, Year attained age 22}

•Divide the elapsed years by five and truncate. Subtract this number (cannot exceed five) 

from the number of elapsed years. 

•Y must be at least 2.

Step 3: Determine AIME

Finally, an individual’s AIME is computed by summing the highest Y indexed earnings and 

dividing by the number of months in those years. Hence, for each record,

Y 12

Highest Y Indexed Earnings(r) AIME(r)

∗ = ∑ .

Equation 4.2.3 – AIMEn(r)

The Possible AIME value is divided into 30 intervals (bend point subintervals). The length of 

each interval in 1979 dollars is given below:

 $45, if 0 < n ≤ 13

 bpn = $100, if 14 ≤ n ≤ 18 

 $200, if 19 ≤ n ≤ 28

 $1000, if 29 ≤ n ≤ 30 

 

Thus, the interval points of AIME division given below in 1979 dollars, yk, are equal to

∑=

k

n

n

1

 bp and 

 $180, if k = 4

 yk = $1085, if k = 18

 $5085, if k = 30.

















 



 = − ,5

5

ElapsedYears Y Elapsed Years min
254

For each record (r), the values for bpn are indexed from 1977 to his/her indexing year i using 

the Social Security average wage index (AWI). So for n = 1 to 30,

AWI(1977)

AWI(i) bp ( ) = bp ∗ n n r

Next the record’s AIME amount, AIME (r), is compared to the indexed intervals. If

∑

−

=

1

1

 bp ( )

k

n

n r < AIME (r) ≤ ∑=

k

n 1

bp (r) n ,

then AIME (r) falls within the kth interval. And for n = 1 to 30,

 bp (r) n , if n < k

 AIMEn (r) = AIME (r) - ∑=

k

n

n r

1

bp ( ), if n = k

 0, if n > k

Equation 4.2.4 – Potential AIME Percentages (PAPS)

Finally, for n = 1 to 30, AWARDS sums the values of AIMEn and bpn across all the records

for years 20154 to 2095 by sex, age (20-65 for disabled workers, and 62-70 for retired 

workers), and trust fund. The ratio of these values gives the average potential AIME 

percentages (PAPS)

PAPn = 

bp ( )

AIME ( )

r

n

r

n

r

r

∑

∑ .

For an example of this calculation, refer to example 6 in appendix 4.2-2 of this subprocess. 

In November 2014, President Obama announced a number of executive actions dealing with 

immigration. The DAPA program, allows legal work authorization for parents who (a) have a 

child that is a citizen or a legal permanent resident and (b) have been present in the country 

since January 1, 2010. Because individuals affected by DAPA presumably did not have prior 

legal work authorization as of late 2014, it is likely that such individuals have limited or no 
255

covered earnings before 2015. As a result, DAPA individuals are not well represented by the 

current historical 2013 10% sample of initial entitlements used in the Awards area. 

To account for the lack of records in the sample presenting DAPA individuals, the AWARDS 

subprocess generated the hypothetical records to represent them. In these hypothetical records, 

the covered earnings begin in 2017 and continue until disability or retirement. In some cases, 

earnings prior to 2017 are required to obtain fully insured status. The number of hypothetical 

records is based on projected number of their entitlements, which are based on the projected

DAPA population and “incidence rates” based on 2015TR projected DAPA entitlements by 

trust fund/age/sex/year relative to the corresponding DAPA population by age/sex/year.
256

Appendix 4.2-1

This appendix provides additional details on how the AWARDS process imputes covered 

earnings above the historical wage base.

 

To do this, AWARDS first computes the cumulative distribution, F, of the workers in the 

sample by their earnings level. Each historical wage base is divided into 20 equal intervals, n, 

and each interval length in year t is

20

WageBase(t) IntervalLength(t) = .

The cumulative distribution F(n, t) is the proportion of workers whose earnings are less than 

IntervalLength(t)*n, for n = 1 to 20. Let NumberWorkers(n, t) be the number of workers 

whose earnings in year t fall within the nth interval, that is the earnings are greater or equal to 

IntervalLength (t)*(n-1) and less than IntervalLength (t)*n. Also, let TotalWorkers(t) be the 

total number of workers in the sample with earnings in year t. Then for any n, 1 ≤ n ≤ 20,

TotalWorkers( )

NumberWorkers( , )

F ( , ) 1

t

m t

n t

n

m

∑= = .

Once F(n, t) is computed for n = 1 to 20, AWARDS extends the function for those who had 

earnings at the wage base. To extrapolate F past the historical base (define F(n, t) for n > 20), 

AWARDS groups the maximum earners in each year in the sample based on the number of 

years they had earnings at the wage base during the next four years (0, 1, 2, 3, 4). Under the 

assumption of uniform distribution within each group, AWARDS assigns an F(nr, t) value to 

each record with earnings at the tax maximum beginning with the group that has no other 

earnings at the tax maximum during the next four years and ending with the group that has 

maximum earnings in each of the next four years. Note that for these beneficiaries F(nr, t) > 

F(20,t). Once F(nr, t) is computed for these beneficiaries, values for F(n, t), where n>20 are 

estimated.

To find F(n, t), where n>20, the log odds transformation is utilized. The odds ratio, 

n,t)

n,t n,t 1- F(

F( ) T( ) = , where n < 20

is the ratio of (1) the proportion of beneficiaries with earnings levels below the nth interval to 

(2) the proportion of beneficiaries with earnings levels above the nth interval. Next, the natural 

logarithm of the odds ratio is computed, giving the log odds transformation,

[ ] 













 = = 1- F( )

F( ) Y( ) ln T( ) ln

n,t

n,t n,t n,t , where n < 20
257

Utilizing the most linear portion of the function at the upper values of n, AWARDS regresses 

Y on those values. The regression line of Y has the form 

Y(n,t) * n ˆ = β 0 + β1

Finally, the amount of covered earnings of a record that has earnings at the taxable maximum 

is determined based on the F(nr, t) value assigned to the record. The F(nr, t) value for this 

record is used in the above equations to determine T(nr, t), Y(nr, t), and then nr, the noninteger value for n in the regression equation of Yˆ above. Thus, if earnings(r, t) = wage base

in year t then

CoveredEarnings(r, t) = IntervalLength(t) r n ∗ + error10,

where nr is the record’s non-integer value for n in the regression equation of Yˆ above.

If earnings(r, t) < wage base in year t, then CoveredEarnings (r, t) = earnings(r, t)

At this point, AWARDS defines the expected taxable earnings of a future sample as,







≥

< = future wage base (t), CoveredEarnings(r,t) future wage base (t)CoveredEarnings(r,t) , CoveredEarnings(r,t) future wage base (t) Earnings(r,t)

 10 The difference between Y(20,t) and Y(20 ) ˆ ,t .
258

Appendix 4.2-2

This appendix provides examples to help understand the calculations described in the 

model documentation of the AWARDS subprocess. These examples do not 

necessarily reflect actual values.

Example 1.1: (OASI-Male with increasing economy-wide covered 

worker rates)—same method applies for females

Task: In projecting the 2013 sample of newly entitled male beneficiaries to represent 

newly entitled male beneficiaries in 2035, an adjustment to the earnings histories for 

those males age 30-34 is needed to reflect higher covered worker rates expected for 

males in this age group. 

This example illustrates the calculation of the projected covered worker rate for males 

who are age 30-34 in the projection period. We will be comparing the group of males 

age 30-34 in the base period with its counterpart group of males age 30-34 in the 

projection period.

Information given:

• Newly entitled retired male beneficiaries represented in the 2013 sample 

are age 30-34 in the base period, 1973-1985, and the counterpart group of 

males retiring in 2035 is age 30-34 in the projection period, 1995-2007.

• Based on the 2013 sample, the covered worker rate for males age 30-34

in the base period = 84.64%. 

• Fully insured rate for age 62 in 2012 = 95.66%

• Fully insured rate for age 62 in 2034 = 95.40%

• Unadjusted economy-wide covered worker rate for males age 30-34 = 

88.59% in the base period (2012). 

• Economy-wide covered worker rate for males age 30-34 = 88.92% in the 

projection period (2035).

Calculations: 

1. Adjusted economy wide covered worker rate in the base period = 

Unadjusted economy-wide covered worker rate in the base period * (1+ 

(Fully insured rate 2035/Fully insured rate 2012 - 1) * .6 ) = 88.45%

2. The potential difference in the economy-wide covered worker rate for 

males age 30-34 in the projection period is 100.0% - 88.92% or 11.08%. 

3. The potential difference in the adjusted economy-wide covered worker 

rate for males age 30-34 in the base period is 100.0% - 88.45% or 

11.55%. 

4. The ratio from steps 2 and 3 is 95.91%. 

5. The potential difference in the sample’s covered worker rate for the 

males age 30-34 in the base period is 100.0% - 84.64% or 15.36%.
259

6. The ratio from step 4 is multiplied by the potential difference in the 

sample’s covered worker rate for males age 30-34 in the base period to 

yield 14.73% (95.91% * 15.36%).

7. The amount in step 6 (14.73%) would be subtracted from 1 to yield the 

sample’s covered worker rate for males who are age 30-34 in the 

projection period (85.27%).

Example 1.2: (OASI-Male with decreasing economy-wide covered 

worker rates)—same method applies for females

Task: In projecting the 2013 sample of newly entitled male beneficiaries to represent 

newly entitled male beneficiaries in 2050, an adjustment to the earnings histories for 

those males age 40-44 is needed to reflect lower covered worker rates expected for 

males in this age group. 

This example illustrates the calculation of the projected covered worker rate for males 

who are age 40-44 in the projection period. We will be comparing the group of males 

age 40-44 in the base period with its counterpart group of males age 40-44 in the 

projection period.

Information given:

• Newly entitled retired male beneficiaries represented in the 2013 sample 

are age 40-44 in the base period, 1983-1995, and the counterpart group of 

males retiring in 2050 is age 40-44 in the projection period, 2020-2032.

• Based on the 2013 sample, the covered worker rate for males age 40-44 

in the base period = 86.03%. 

• Fully insured rate for age 62 in 2012 = 95.66% 

• Fully insured rate for age 62 in 2049 = 94.37%

• Unadjusted economy-wide covered worker rate for males age 40-44 = 

85.91% in the base period. 

• Economy-wide covered worker rate for males age 40-44 = 83.36% in the 

projection period.

Calculations: 

1. Adjusted economy wide covered worker rate in the base period = 

Unadjusted economy-wide covered worker rate in the base period * 

(1+ (Fully insured rate 2049/Fully insured rate 2012 - 1) * .6 ) = 

85.21%

2. The economy-wide covered worker rate for males age 40-44 in the 

projection period is 83.36%. 

3. The ratio from steps 2 and 1 is .8336/.8521 or 97.82 %. 
260

4. The ratio from step 3 is multiplied by the sample’s covered worker 

rate for males age 40-44 in the base period to yield 84.16% (97.82 % * 

86.03% = 84.16%).

The amount in step 4 (84.16%) would be the sample covered worker rate for males who 

are age 40-44 in the projection period.

Example 1.3: (DI-Male with decreasing economy-wide covered 

worker rates) – same method applies for females

Task: In projecting the 2013 sample of newly entitled male DI beneficiaries age 60-64 

to represent newly entitled male beneficiaries in 2050, an adjustment to the earnings 

histories for those males age 40-44 is needed to reflect lower covered worker rates 

expected for males in this age group. 

This example illustrates the calculation of the projected covered worker rate for males

who are newly entitled at age 60-64 in 2050 and are age 40-44 in the projection period. 

We will be comparing the group of males age 40-44 in the base period with its 

counterpart group of males age 40-44 in the projection period. The formulas are 

similar to Example 1.2 in relating the age-group of earnings to a specific entitlement 

age-group, but with no fully insured adjustment to economy-wide covered worker rates 

in the base year. 

Information given:

• Newly entitled male DI beneficiaries who are age 60-64 represented in 

the 2013 sample are age 40-44 in the base period, 1989-1997, and the 

counterpart group of males DI beneficiaries who are age 60-64 in 2050 is 

age 40-44 in the projection period, 2026-2034.

• Based on the 2013 sample, the covered worker rate for males DI

beneficiary age 40-44 in the base period = 90.34%. 

• The economy-wide covered worker rate for males age 40-44 in the base

period (2012) is 85.65%.

• The economy-wide covered worker rate for males age 40-44 in the 

projection period (2049) is 83.62%.

Calculations: 

1. The economy wide covered worker rate for male age 40-44 in the base 

period is 85.65%

2. The economy wide covered worker rate for male age 40-44 in the 

projection period is 83.62%.

3. The sample covered worker rate for males DI beneficiary age 40-44 is 

90.34%. 

4. The ratio from steps 2 and 1 is 97.63 %. 
261

5. The ratio from step 4 is multiplied by the sample’s covered worker rate 

for males age 40-44 in the base period to yield 88.20% (97.63 % * 

90.34%).

Example 2:

Task: In projecting the 2013 sample of newly entitled male OASI beneficiaries to 

represent newly entitled male OASI beneficiaries in 2040, an adjustment to the 

earnings histories for those males age 40-44 is needed to reflect higher covered worker 

rates expected for males in this age group. To achieve this target, the desired number 

of records with zero reported earnings in this age group are randomly selected and 

assigned earnings.

This example illustrates the calculation of earnings to be assigned to a randomly chosen 

newly entitled retired male record with zero taxable earnings in the base year. 

Information given:

• Newly entitled retired male beneficiaries represented in the 2013 sample 

are age 40-44 in the base period, 1983-1995, and the counterpart group of 

males retiring in 2040 will be age 40-44 in the projection period, 2010-

2022.

• Based on the 2013 sample, a male record, r = 59,950, has been randomly 

selected to replace his zero taxable earnings reported in the base year 

1990 at age 40 with an amount based on his career earnings pattern. This 

record is age 63 in 2013, and his year of birth is 1950.

• A beneficiary retiring at age 63 in 2040 will have a year of birth of 1977. 

And at age 40, the corresponding projection year to the base year of 1990

is the projection year 2017.

• The Average Indexed Earnings for this record, AIE (59,950), is

computed to be $74,344. Note: This value is calculated by (1) using the 

record’s annual taxable earnings reported each year through 2012, (2)

converting them to 2012 year dollars, and then (3) summing the highest 

35 years of earnings and dividing by 35.

• The Average Indexed Earnings for a hypothetical worker, AIE(w) whose 

year of birth is 1950 is $66,741. This value is calculated as above given 

the hypothetical worker earned the average taxable earnings in each of 

the base years for males retiring at age 63 in the 2013 sample.

• The projected Average Taxable Earnings of males retiring in 2040 for the 

projection year 2017 (converted to 1990 dollars11) 

is PreATE2040(male,2017) = $29,869. 

Calculations: 

 11 All projection year dollars are converted back to ‘sample year’ dollar amounts, using the Average Wage Index.
262

1. The ratio of the Average Indexed Earnings for record number 59,950, 

AIE(59,950) to the Average Indexed Earnings of a hypothetical male 

worker born in 1950 and retiring at age 63, AIE(w) is $74,344/$66,741

or 1.114. 

2. The amount in step 1 (1.114) would be multiplied 

by PreATE2040(male,2017), which is given as $29,869. This yields the 

amount of earnings assigned to record number 59,950 in the projection 

year 2017 representing a sample retiring in 2040, Thus, 

Earnings(59,950,2017) = 1.114 * $29,869 which equals $33,272.

Note that, at this stage of the process, the average taxable earnings,

denoted PreATE2040(male,2017), have been computed using projected earnings adjusted 

for changes in the wage base. Adjustments to earnings for the earnings experience in 

the CWHS have not yet been applied. See the earlier section “Earnings Experience in 

the CWHS” and example 4 below for a description of this adjustment process.

Example 3:

Task: The AWARDS subprocess estimates projected values of Average Taxable 

Earnings by age and sex using the values12 in the 2013 CWHS file supplied by the 

Economic subprocess as the base year on which to build our projections.

This example illustrates the calculation of the projected Average Taxable Earnings of 

the CWHS in 2017 for 42 year old females, CWHSATE42,female(2017). We will be using 

the number of female covered workers age 42 and the total taxable earnings for females 

age 42 as given the in 2013 CWHS data.

Information given:

• The average taxable earnings calculated from last 5 historical years in the 

CWHS for females age 42 are:

ATE_cwhs(2009) = 33,899.55

ATE_cwhs(2010) = 34,682.18

ATE_cwhs(2011) = 35,845.87

ATE_cwhs(2012) = 37,309.87

ATE_cwhs(2013) = 37,945.75

• The economy-wide average taxable earnings 2009-2017 for females age 

42 are:

ATE_econ(2009) = 33,203.01

ATE_econ(2010) = 33,536.98

 12 Because not all earnings are posted for the most recent years for a given CWHS file, adjustment factors, based 

on historical trends, are applied by the Economic subprocess to complete these earnings. For the 2013 CWHS, 

adjustment factors were applied to data in years 2009 through 2013.
263

ATE_econ(2011) = 34,292.49

ATE_econ(2012) = 35,199.98

ATE_econ(2013) = 35,898.04

ATE_econ(2014) = 36,946.23

ATE_econ(2015) = 37,531.18

ATE_econ(2016) = 38,512.75

ATE_econ(2017) = 40,500.83

Calculations: 

1. The normalized ATE for females age 42 in 2017, using 2009-2013

CWHS data brought forward to 2017 ATE levels. The calculation is 

shown in 2 steps : 

Step a 

ATE_cwhs(2009)*ATE_econ(2017)/ATE_econ(2009) + 

ATE_cwhs(2010)*ATE_econ(2017)/ATE_econ(2010) 

+.......+ATE_cwhs(2013)*ATE_econ(2017)/ATE_econ(2013)

 Step b

Sum of Step a ($211,308.72), then take the average ($211,308.72

/ 5 =$42,261.74)

2. Repeat the same steps in (1) to calculate the normalized ATE for each 

age (15 to 80). Multiply the normalized ATE by number of econ-wide 

covered workers by age and sex in year 2017. This gives us the taxable 

earnings. Sum up the taxable earnings for all ages and sex (both male 

and female). Then divide the total taxable earnings (age and sex 

combined) by total number of economy-wide covered workers in 2017

(age and sex combined). The resulting ATE for 2017 using economywide covered workers and 2009-2013 CWHS data brought forward to 

2017 ATE levels is $39,786.29.

3. The value from step 1 ($42,261.74) is multiplied by a final 

multiplicative adjustment factor to match the aggregate ATE level 

produced by the Economic subprocess. The adjustment is a ratio of 

economy-wide ATE to CWHS projected aggregate average taxable 

earnings ($40,500.83 / $39,786.29 from step 2 above) yielding for 

females age 42 in 2017 an ATE value of $43,020.

Example 3.1:

This example illustrates the calculation of the projected Average Taxable Earnings in 

2027 for 34 to 42 year old females who retire at age 62 to 70 in 2055. We will be using 

the historical and projected ATE and distribution of retired workers in the projection 
264

year to calculate the weighted CWHS ATE for that year.

Information given:

• The historical ATE from CWHS sample for age 34 to 42 in 1985, who 

retire in sample year 2013, is listed as follows.

ATE(1985,female,34) = 12,667

ATE(1985,female,35) = 12,718

ATE(1985,female,36) = 12,641

ATE(1985,female,37) = 12,840

ATE(1985,female,38) = 12,821

ATE(1985,female,39) = 13,076

ATE(1985,female,40) = 12,861

ATE(1985,female,41) = 12,761

ATE(1985,female,42) = 12,806

• The projected ATE, using historical CWHS sample data as a guide and 

projected covered worker data from the Economics group for age 34 to 

42 in 2027, who retire in sample year 2055, is listed as follows.

ATE(2027,female,34) = 60,722

ATE (2027,female,35) = 61,907

ATE (2027,female,36) = 62,752

ATE (2027,female,37) = 63,459

ATE (2027,female,38) = 64,038

ATE (2027,female,39) = 64,561

ATE (2027,female,40) = 65,173

ATE (2027,female,41) = 65,458

ATE (2027,female,42) = 65,601

• The distribution of retired worker for age 62 to 70 in 2055, is listed as 

follows.

weight(2055,female,62) = .2519

weight(2055,female,63) = .1346

weight(2055,female,64) = .0605

weight(2055,female,65) = .1277

weight(2055,female,66) = .1632

weight(2055,female,67) = .1296

weight(2055,female,68) = .0465

weight(2055,female,69) = .0421

weight(2055,female,70) = .0437

• Average wage index in 1985 = $16,822.51

• Average wage index in 2027 = $77,326.64

• Sample average taxable earnings in 1985 = $13,529.41

Calculations: 
265

1. The calculated weighted historical ATE in 1985 is the sum of historical 

ATE multiplied by the corresponding weight from the 2055 retired 

worker distribution. That is $12,789 equals the sum of 12,667*.2519 + 

12,718*.1346 + 12,641*.0605 + ..... + 12,806*.0437

2. The calculated weighted projected ATE in 2027 is the sum of projected 

ATE multiplied by the corresponding weight from the 2055 retired 

worker distribution. That is $63,000 equals the sum of 60,722*.2519 + 

61,907*.1346 + 62,752*.0605 + ..... + 65,601*.0437

3. The ratio of AWI (1985) to AWI (2027) = .2176

($16,822.51/$77,326.64)

4. The adjusted sample ATE in 2027 (in 1985 dollars) = sample ATE in 

1985 * projected weighted ATE in 2027/ projected weighted ATE in 

1985 * AWI (1985) / AWI (2027) = $14,499 (13,529.41 * (63,000 / 

12,789) *.2176)

Example 4:

Task: In projecting the 2013 sample of newly entitled female beneficiaries to 

represent newly entitled female beneficiaries in 2055, the projected Average Taxable 

Earnings of females in the sample (ATEf)

13 for year t = 2027 must be adjusted by an 

amount, δ(2027), to meet a targeted Average Taxable Earnings(ATEf'') for 2027. 

This example illustrates the calculation of δ(2027) for the female cohort retiring at ages 

62 to 70 in the projection year 2055. The cohort is age 34 to 42 in the projection year 

2027. The value δ(2027) is the dollar amount in which the average annual earnings 

levels are adjusted for females in this age group in the year 2027 and retiring in 2055. 

We will be comparing this group of females age 34-42 in the projection 2027 year with 

its counterpart group of females age 34-42 in the base year 1985.

Information given:

• A cohort of newly entitled retired female beneficiaries retiring at ages 62 

to 70 represented in the 2013 sample are ages 34-42 in the base year, 

1985, and the counterpart group of females retiring in 2055 are ages 34-

42 in the projection year, 2027.

• Based on the 2013 sample, the average taxable earnings for females ages 

34-42 in the base year 1985 is $13,529.

• For a sample projected to be retiring in 2055, the average taxable 

earnings (ATEf) for females in the projection year 2027 is $12,82614, 

after applying adjustments to the records’ earning levels for changes in 

the wage base and in covered worker rates. 

 13 The average taxable earnings have been computed using projected earnings adjusted for changes in the wage 

base and for changes in covered worker rates.

14 Amount is in 1985 dollars, ‘sample year dollars’.
266

• The average taxable earnings (ATEf'') of future sample (2055) in 2027 as 

shown in Example 3.1 is $14,499.

Calculations: 

• The difference in ATEf'' ($14,499) and ATEf' ($12,826) yields the 

δ(2027) value $1,673 ($14,499 - $12,826 = $1,673).

Example 5:

Task: In projecting the 2013 sample of newly entitled female OAB beneficiaries to 

represent newly entitled female OAB beneficiaries in 2055, for year t = 2027, δ(2027) 

is positive indicating an adjustment to earnings histories is needed to reflect higher 

average taxable earnings by this cohort for the projection year 2027. 

This example illustrates the calculation of the ratio (2027) in projection year 2027 for 

the female cohort retiring at ages 62 to 70 in the projection year 2055. The value, ratio

(2027), is the adjustment ratio that will be applied to this cohort projected covered 

earnings in 2027 in order to achieve the targeted Average Taxable Earnings of this 

cohort for 2027.

Information given:

• Earnings in the projection year 2027 for a group of newly entitled female 

beneficiaries retiring in 2055 is the counterpart corresponding to earnings 

in the base year 1985 for the group of newly entitled female beneficiaries 

in the 2013 sample.

• The targeted average taxable earnings ATE2027' for the projection year 

2027 is $14,499 (shown in Example 4).

• For newly entitled females retiring in 2055, the average taxable earnings 

(ATE2027) for the projection year 2027 is $12,82615 (shown in Example 

4). 

• δ(2027) , the difference in the targeted average taxable earnings ATE2027' 

and ATE2027, is calculated to be $1,673 ($14,499 - $12,826).

• α is an additive constant to the ratio(2027). For female OABs the 

constant α when δ(t) is positive is .05.

Calculations: 

• The ratio(2027) multiplied to the covered earnings in 2027 for females

retiring in 2055 is 1 + δ(2027) /ATE2027 + α = ( 1 + ($1,673/$12,826) + 

0.05), or 1.18. 

 15 Amount is in 1985 dollars, ‘sample year dollars’.
267

Example 6:

Task: The AWARDS subprocess calculates the Average Indexed Monthly Earnings 

(AIME) of each beneficiary in the sample. The AIME values are then divided into 30 

intervals.

This example illustrates the division of a possible AIME value into intervals.

Information given:

• An OAB beneficiary retired at age 64 in 2013

• This OAB beneficiary is record #150000 in the sample (r = 150000)

• The AIME for this individual is $3,000

• The initial eligibility year is 2011, the year the individual turned age 62.

• The length of each interval (bpn) in 1979 dollars is given in Equation 

4.2.3. The length of each interval in 2011 dollars is given by the 

equation 

bpn (r) = bpn * AWI (2009) / AWI (1977) 

where bpn is the length of interval n in 1979 dollars

• The average wage index (AWI) for year 2009 is $40,711.61

• The AWI for year 1977 is $9,779.44

• When converting the intervals from 1979 dollars to 2011 dollars, there is 

a 2-year lag in AWI values.

• AIMEn (150000) is the AIME value in interval n for Record #150000

Calculations: 

• The AIME for this individual ($3,000) is compared to the indexed 

intervals. It falls within the 15th interval.

• The AIME15 is the residual of $3,000 subtracting the cumulative indexed

bend points up to 14th interval ($2,851.64). The AIME for this individual 

in 15th interval is $148.36

• AIMEn (150000) for interval 1 through14 equals bpn (150000) for the 

corresponding intervals, such that PAPn = AIMEn / bpn = 1 for these 

intervals

• AIME15(150000) = $148.36, such that PAP15 = $148.36 / $416.30 = 

0.3564

• AIMEn (150000) for interval 16 through 30 equals 0, such that PAPn = 0 

for these intervals.

• The following table details these results.
268

n 

bpn in 

1979 

dollars

bpn (r) in 

2011

dollars

 bp ( )

1

n r

n

k

∑=

in 2011

dollars

AIMEn (r) 

in 2011 

dollars

PAPn 

in 2011

dollars

1 $45 $187.33 $187.33 $187.33 1

2 45 187.33 374.67 187.33 1

3 45 187.33 562.00 187.33 1

4 45 187.33 749.34 187.33 1

5 45 187.33 936.67 187.33 1

6 45 187.33 1,124.00 187.33 1

7 45 187.33 1,311.34 187.33 1

8 45 187.33 1,498.67 187.33 1

9 45 187.33 1,686.01 187.33 1

10 45 187.33 1,873.34 187.33 1

11 45 187.33 2,060.67 187.33 1

12 45 187.33 2,248.01 187.33 1

13 45 187.33 2,435.34 187.33 1

14 100 416.30 2,851.64 416.30 1

15 100 416.30 3,267.94 148.36 0.3564

16 100 416.30 3,684.24 0 0

17 100 416.30 4,100.53 0 0

18 100 416.30 4,516.83 0 0

19 200 832.60 5,349.43 0 0

20 200 832.60 6,182.02 0 0

21 200 832.60 7,014.62 0 0

22 200 832.60 7,847.22 0 0

23 200 832.60 8,679.81 0 0

24 200 832.60 9,512.41 0 0

25 200 832.60 10,345.00 0 0

26 200 832.60 11,177.60 0 0

27 200 832.60 12,010.20 0 0

28 200 832.60 12,842.79 0 0

29 1000 4,162.98 17,005.77 0 0

30 1000 4,162.98 21,168.75 0 0
269 

4.3. Cost

4.3.a. Overview 

The COST subprocess projects the trust fund operations for each year of the long-range 

75-year period. The COST subprocess projects the income and cost for each trust fund 

(OASI and DI). The two components of non-interest income are payroll tax contributions 

and taxation of benefits.1 The other component of income is interest earned on the trust 

fund assets. The three components of cost are scheduled benefits, administrative 

expenses, and the railroad interchange. Each of these components is projected for each 

trust fund (OASI and DI). The end-of-year assets is computed by taking the beginningof-year assets (ASSETS), adding payroll contributions (CONTRIB), taxation of benefits 

(TAXBEN), and interest income (INT), and subtracting scheduled benefits (BEN), 

administrative expenses (ADM), and the railroad interchange (RR). 

Equations 4.3.1 through 4.3.6 outline this overall structure and sequence. 

CONTRIB = CONTRIB(·) (4.3.1) 

BEN = BEN(·) (4.3.2)

TAXBEN = TAXBEN(·) (4.3.3)

ADM = ADM(·) (4.3.4) 

RR = RR(·) (4.3.5) 

 

INT = INT(·) (4.3.6) 

 ASSETS ASSETS CONTRIB TAXBEN INT BEN ADM RR EOY = + + +−− − BOY

The COST subprocess produces annual values that help assess the financial status of the 

OASI, DI, and combined funds. These include the annual income rate (ANN_INC_RT), 

annual cost rate (ANN_COST_RT), and trust fund ratio (TFR) as outlined below. 

ANN_INC_RT = ANN_INC_RT (·) (4.3.7) 

ANN_COST_RT = ANN_COST_RT (·) (4.3.8) 

TFR = TFR(·) (4.3.9) 

The COST subprocess also produces summarized values. These values are computed for 

the entire 75-year projection periods, as well as 25- and 50-year periods. These include 

 

1 As noted throughout the Trustees Report a third component of non-interest income is reimbursements 

from the General Fund of the Treasury. In the cost program such reimbursements are simply treated as 

payroll tax contributions.
270 

the actuarial balance (ACT_BAL), unfunded obligation (UNF_OBL), summarized income 

rate (SUMM_INC_RT), summarized cost rate (SUMM_COST_RT), and closed group 

unfunded obligation (CLOSEDGRP_UNFOBL). 

ACT_BAL = ACT_BAL(·) (4.3.10) 

UNF_OBL = UNF_OBL(·) (4.3.11) 

SUMM_INC_RT = SUMM_INC_RT(·) (4.3.12) 

SUMM_COST_RT = SUMM_COST_RT(·) (4.3.13) 

CLOSEDGRP_UNFOBL = CLOSEDGRP_UNFOBL(·) (4.3.14) 

The following notation is used throughout this documentation: 

• ni represents the first year of the projection period-2016 for the 2016 TR

• ni+74 represents the final year of the projection period-2090 for the 2016 TR

• nf represents the last year the cost program will project-2095 for the 2016 TR

• nim1 is equal to ni-1 

• nim2 is equal to ni-2 

• ns is equal to ni+9

• nbase, the year of the sample, is equal to 2013 

 

4.3.b. Input Data

Data received as input from the short-range office are presented first. Then data from

long range and all other sources are identified separately for each equation.

Short-range OCACT Data 

• Estimates for the first ten years of the projection period for the first six 

equations mentioned above. 

• Assets at the beginning of year ni. 

 All of this information is updated annually. 

Long-range OCACT and other Data

i. Equation 4.3.1 – Tax Contributions (CONTRIB)

Economics-Process 2

• Projected effective taxable payroll for years nim1 through nf, updated 

yearly 

Other

• Projected employee/employer payroll tax rate, by trust fund and year, for 

years 1981 through nf, updated as needed (e.g., as required due to 

legislative changes)
271 

ii. Equation 4.3.2 – Scheduled Benefits (BEN)

Demography-Process 1

• Projected number of married and divorced people in the Social Security area 

population by age for end of years nim1 through 2100, updated yearly

Economics -Process 2 

• Historical COLA for year nim2, updated yearly

• Historical CPI for years 1990 through nim1, updated yearly 

• Projected cost of living adjustment (COLA) for years nim1 through nf, 

updated yearly

• Historical SSA average wage index for year nim2, updated yearly 

• Projected percent increases in the average wage index for years nim1 through 

nf, updated yearly 

Beneficiaries-Process 3

• Initial and ultimate incurred but not reported (IBNR) DI beneficiary 

distribution by age, duration of disability (0 through 9 years and 10+ years)

and sex, updated every few years (subprocess #3.2). Factors are read in such 

that there is a ten-year linear phase-in from initial factors to ultimate factors. 

The number of DI beneficiaries in current-payment status is equal to the 

number of currently entitled DI workers times the IBNR factor.

• Projected number of disabled workers in current-pay status by sex, age in 

current-pay, and duration of disability (0 through 9 and 10+) for years nim1 

through nf, updated yearly from subprocess 3.2 

• Projected number of retired worker beneficiaries in current-pay status by sex, 

age in current-pay, and age at entitlement for years nim1 through nf, updated 

yearly from subprocess 3.3 

• Projected number of auxiliary beneficiaries (by benefit category) of retiredworker, deceased-worker, and disabled-worker beneficiaries for years nim1

through nf, updated yearly from subprocess 3.3 

• Projected number of disability insurance beneficiaries who convert to

retirement insurance status upon the attainment of normal retirement age by 

age in current pay, for years nim1 through nf, updated yearly from subprocess 

3.2 and 3.3 

• Retired Workers 65+ by sex, and marital status (single, married, widowed, 

and divorced) 

• Retired Workers 62+ by sex, and marital status (single, married, widowed, 

and divorced) 

Other

• Total (aggregate) PIA and MBA, not actuarially reduced, of DI male and 

female workers in current payment status, updated yearly from the Table 1-A 

Supplement 

• Total (aggregate) PIA and MBA, actuarially reduced, of DI male and female 

workers in current payment status, updated yearly from the Table 1-A 
272 

Supplement 

• Total (aggregate) PIA and MBA, not actuarially reduced, of newly awarded 

DI male and female workers, updated yearly from the Table 1-A Supplement 

• Cumulative distribution of AIME dollars for newly entitled retired-worker 

beneficiaries by age (62 through 70) and sex, for years nim1 through nf, 

updated yearly from subprocess 4.2 

• Cumulative distribution of AIME dollars for newly entitled disabled-worker 

beneficiaries by age (20 through 65) and sex, for years nim1 through nf, 

updated yearly from subprocess 4.2. Ages 15 through 19 are assumed to have 

the same distribution of dollars as does age 20. Future age 66 disabled 

workers are assumed to have the same distribution of dollars as age 65 

workers do 

• Age distribution of newly entitled retired-worker beneficiaries in the AIME 

awards sample by sex, updated in years that the sample changes, from 

subprocess 4.2 

• Starting average PIA matrix for retired-worker benefits for the year nim1, by 

age at entitlement, age in current-pay and sex, updated yearly 

• Starting average PIA matrix for disabled-worker benefits, for the year nim1, 

by age in current-pay, duration and sex, updated yearly 

• Starting average PIA matrix for beneficiaries who convert from disabled 

worker to retirement worker status for the year nim1, by age in current-pay 

and sex, updated yearly 

• Starting average MBA matrix for retired-worker benefits for the year nim1, by 

age at entitlement, age in current-pay and sex, updated yearly

• Starting average MBA matrix for beneficiaries who convert from disabled 

worker to retirement worker status for the year nim1, by age in current-pay 

and sex, updated yearly 

• Benefit relationships between worker and auxiliary benefits (linkages) for the 

year nim1, for all benefit categories and worker account holders of both sexes, 

updated yearly from qlink16.xls 

• Benefit relationships between workers and aged spouses for years nim1

through nf with the effect of the ‘Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015’ on “claiming 

strategies” taken into account

• Retroactive payment loading factors for auxiliary beneficiary categories for all 

years, for each benefit category and both sexes, updated yearly

• Initial and ultimate post entitlement factors for retired workers by sex and 

duration updated yearly. Factors are read in such that there is a twenty-year

linear phase-in from initial factors to ultimate factors. 

• Initial and ultimate post entitlement factors for disabled workers by sex and 

duration updated yearly. Factors are read in such that there is a twenty-year

linear phase-in from initial factors to ultimate factors. 

• Initial and ultimate post entitlement factors for DI conversion workers by sex 

and duration updated yearly. Factors are read in such that there is a twentyyear linear phase-in from initial factors to ultimate factors. 

• Average excess MBA amounts for dually entitled wives and widows, updated 
273 

yearly from Statistical Supplement

• Initial Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) factors by sex and age for 

attributed year, updated every 2 years 

• Ultimate WEP factors by sex read in as a percentage of the way from initial 

factors to one, updated every 2 years 

• Year in which ultimate WEP factor is reached by age at initial entitlement 

(62-70), updated every 2 years 

• Trendline by which WEP factors are phased-in from initial value to ultimate 

value, updated every 2 years 

• Workers’ Compensation cumulative factors by duration that adjust benefits to 

account for decreasing offsets (i.e. – Workers Comp offsets decrease as 

duration increases), updated yearly 

• Workers’ Compensation reduction factors (used in retroactive category) to 

reflect offsets starting and stopping in the year of DI entitlement

• Workers’ Compensation parameter to account for offsets that begin and end in 

the year of entitlement, updated yearly

• Dual entitlement regression coefficients for the number of wives, husbands, 

widows, and widowers, and the average excess amounts for wives and 

widows, updated yearly 

• Dual entitlement widower excess amount as a percent of widow excess 

amount 

• Dual entitlement husband excess amount as a percent of wife excess amount

• Dual entitlement average excess amounts and percentages of exposure 

population for December, year ni-1 for wives, husbands, widows, and 

widowers, updated yearly 

• Target values for ratios relating to the above dual entitlement categories, 

updated yearly

• Number of years in which the difference between the results from the 

regression coefficients and targeted values are phased in for the five above 

dual entitlement categories, updated yearly 

• Adjustment factors for average retired and disabled worker benefit amounts 

(PIA and MBA) in current-pay at durations 0 and 1, by sex and age, updated 

yearly 

• Number of months retroactive benefits are received by a worker who is paid 

retroactively in their year of entitlement, by trust fund 

• Adjustment factors for average retired worker retroactive benefit amounts by 

sex, updated yearly 

• Adjustment factors for disabled worker retroactive benefit amounts in currentpay at durations 0, 1 and 2+, by sex and age, updated yearly 

• Adjustment factors to apply to long-range average benefit levels in the first 20

years of the projection period by sex and trust fund, updated yearly 

• Average retired worker PIA in the 75th year of the projection period by sex, 

updated yearly

iii. Equation 4.3.3 – Taxation of Benefits
274 

Trust Fund Operations and Actuarial Status

• Taxation of benefits as a percentage of scheduled benefits by trust fund for 

years nim1 through nf, updated yearly from subprocess #4.1 

iv. Equation 4.3.4 – Administrative Expenses

Economics-Process 2

• Average wage indexes for years nim1 through nf, updated yearly

• Ultimate value of productivity factor for the period ni through nf updated 

yearly

Beneficiaries-Process 3 

• Total number of beneficiaries in current-pay status by trust fund for years 

nim1 through nf, updated yearly 

v. Equation 4.3.5 – Railroad Interchange

Economics-Process 2

• Increase in the average wage index for years nim1 through nf, updated yearly 

• Ultimate value of productivity factor for the period ni through nf updated

yearly

Trust Fund Operations and Actuarial Status 

• Taxation of benefits as a percent of the amount of benefits scheduled to be 

paid, by trust fund for years nim1 through nf, updated yearly (use same factors 

as in equation 4.3.3) 

Other input data 

• Nominal annual yield rate on the combined OASDI trust fund for years nim1

through nf, updated as the ultimate real interest rate and ultimate CPI are 

changed by the Trustees 

• Regression coefficients to project annual prescribed interest rates, related to 

railroad interchange, updated annually 

• Ratio of railroad retirement OASI and DI average benefits to overall OASI

and DI average benefits, updated yearly 

• Number of railroad beneficiaries (retirement and disability) for December of 

year nim3, updated yearly 

• Average taxable earnings in railroad employment for year nim2, updated 

yearly

• Historical data on average railroad employment, 1960 through nim2 

• Average worker benefit by sex and trust fund, updated yearly from the 

December nim1 Table I-A Supplement 

• Expected railroad new awards as a percent of the average of historical 

employment data
275 

• Auxiliary loading factor by trust fund, updated yearly using 10 years of 

historical financial interchange benefit data

• Railroad initial mortality rate by trust fund for year nim2, updated yearly 

using 10 years of historical financial interchange benefit data 

• Railroad mortality improvement rate by trust fund, updated yearly using 10 

years of historical financial interchange benefit data 

• Fiscal Year Railroad transfer amount in millions of dollars for year nim2

vi. Equation 4.3.6 – Interest Income

Economics-Process 2

• Annual increase in the CPI for years ni through nf, updated yearly 

Trustees assumptions 

• Ultimate real interest rate, updated annually 

Other input data 

• Factors for exposure to interest rate for benefits, payroll, and taxation of 

benefits, updated yearly

• Factors for exposure to railroad interchange and administrative expenses, 

updated periodically 

vii. Equations 4.3.7 through 4.3.13 – Annual Values and Summarized Values

All inputs for equations 4.3.7 through 4.3.13 are estimated internally in the Cost program. 

viii. Equation 4.3.14 – Closed Group Unfunded Obligation 

Demographics-Process 1

• Single year population and mortality rate data for years 1941 through 2101, 

updated yearly

Economics-Process 2

• Historical and projected single-year COLA data and average wage indexing 

series (AWI) data for years 1975 through 2095 (for COLA) and 1951 through 

2095 (AWI), updated yearly 

• Historical and projected number of covered workers by single year of age 0-

99 and 100+ from year ni-21 through 2095, updated yearly 

• Projected number of covered workers by single year of age 100+ from year ni 

through 2095, derived from total age 100+ projections from year ni-21 

through 2095 

• Ultimate assumed annual average wage increase, wg_ult, updated yearly 

Beneficiaries-Process 3

• Total projected disabled workers by age for years nim1 to 2095, updated 

yearly
276 

• Total projected aged spouses, divorced aged spouses, surviving aged spouses 

and divorced surviving aged spouses by sex, single year of age (up to 95+) 

and for years nim1 to 2095. 

Awards-Process 4

• Projected number of workers and total taxable earnings by single year of age 

(15-80) and sex from nim1 to 2095, updated yearly 

 Other

• Total count of beneficiaries in 20 of the 28 beneficiary categories (excluding 

retired workers, disabled workers, aged spouses (married, divorced, and 

dually entitled excess), and aged widow(er)s (married, divorced, and dually 

entitled excess) from the December 2015 Master Beneficiary Record 

(MBR)2

—updated yearly

• Total benefits paid in 20 of the 28 beneficiary categories (excluding retired 

workers, disabled workers, aged spouses (married, divorced, and dually 

entitled excess), and aged widow(er)s (married, divorced, and dually entitled 

excess) from the December 2015 MBR—updated yearly

• Consumer Price Index data from 1951-1974 from Bureau of Labor Statistics 

• Number of covered workers and average taxable earnings by single year of 

age 1-14 for years 1993-2012 from 1 percent Continuous Work History 

Sample (CWHS), updated yearly to include year ni-4 

• Number of covered workers and average taxable earnings by single year of 

age 75-99 for years 1993-2012 from 1 percent CWHS, updated yearly to 

include year ni-4 

• Distribution of assumed age differentials between aged spouses and workers 

ranging from -12 years to 15 years seniority for the worker by sex of the 

beneficiary, age of the beneficiary 62-74, and marital status obtained from the 

December 2012 MBR—updated every 3 years

• Distribution of assumed age differentials between widow(er)s and workers 

ranging from -6 years to 12 years seniority for the male (generally not 

updated) 

• Factors to apply to the 95+ “in current pay” counts of retired workers, aged 

spouses, surviving aged spouses, divorced spouses, and dually entitled 

spouses expanding the single age counts through 119, updated yearly 

4.3.c. Development of Output

i. Equation 4.3.1 – Payroll Tax Contributions (CONTRIB)

 

2 For disabled adult children of deceased workers and lump-sum beneficiaries, data were extracted from a 

1- percent sample of the December 2015 MBR, mainframe dataset ACT.TAPEL.CAN1215. For the other 

18 auxiliary beneficiary categories, data was extracted from the 100 percent December 2015 MBR, 

mainframe dataset ACT.TAPEH.MBR100.D1512.CANSORT.
277 

It would be natural to estimate the payroll tax contributions by trust fund by multiplying 

the applicable employer/employee tax rate by effective taxable payroll. However, tax 

contributions are reported on a cash basis. That is, tax contribution amounts are 

attributed to the year in which they are actually received by the trust funds, while taxable 

payroll is attributed to the year in which earnings are paid. In other words, the lag 

between the time the tax liability is incurred and when the taxes are actually collected 

must be reflected. If lag represents the proportion of incurred payroll taxes estimated to 

be received by the trust fund (tf) in year yr, then tax contributions (CONTRIB) are given 

by the formula

(, ) (, ) ( )

(1 ) ( , 1) ( 1)

CONTRIB tf yr lag tax rate tf yr payroll yr

lag tax rate tf yr payroll yr

=× ×

+− × −× −

for yr ns ≥ .

The value of lag is estimated from the combined OASI and DI tax contributions 

estimated to be collected in the final year of the short-range period, ns, and is given by 

( )

( )

2 2

1 1

2

1

( , ) ( , 1) ( 1)

( , ) ( ) ( , 1) ( 1)

tf tf

tf

CONTRIB tf ns taxrate tf ns payroll ns

lag

taxrate tf ns payroll ns taxrate tf ns payroll ns

= =

=

− −× −

=

× − −× −

∑ ∑

∑

. 

For the first ten years of the long-range period, tax contributions are set equal to those 

provided by the short-range office. The same value of lag is used for all years, and both 

trust funds, thereafter. 

ii. Equation 4.3.2 – Scheduled Benefits (BEN)

(1) Disabled-Worker Benefits

Disabled Worker Beneficiary Matrix

The number of disabled-worker beneficiaries for a given year and sex is provided 

from the subprocess 3.2. For each projection year, two matrices are provided – one 

for males and one for females. The structure of each matrix is as follows: 

• 11 columns. The columns are indexed by duration of disability (0-9 and 

10+). 

• 52 rows. These rows correspond to the age in current pay, ages 15 

through 66. 

 

The COST subprocess, however, only uses 10 durations (0-8 and 9+), and 47 ages 

(ages 20 through 66). This requires a manipulation of the matrix of DI beneficiaries 

in current-pay status from subprocess 3.2. For ages in current pay greater than or 

equal to 30, the duration 9 and 10+ columns of this matrix are added to give the total 
278 

number of duration 9+ beneficiaries. For ages (ag) between 20 and 30 inclusive, the 

number of beneficiaries in current-pay aged ag and duration ag-20 is the value 

provided by the DISABILITY subprocess added to the number of people in current 

pay aged ag-j and duration ag-20 for j=1,..,5. (For example, the number of people 

aged 20 of duration 0 is combined with the number of people aged 15, 16, 17, 18 and 

19 of duration 0; the number of people aged 21 of duration 1 is combined with the 

number of beneficiaries in current-payment status aged 16, 17, 18, 19, and 20 of 

duration 1, and so on. In other words, the five nonzero diagonal of the matrix 

provided by the DISABILITY subprocess is “combined with” the diagonal directly 

below it and then zeroed out.) 

Building the Average Benefit Matrix for Disabled Workers

In each projection year, the COST subprocess produces an average benefit matrix for 

each sex. Each matrix is a 47 by 10 matrix whose entries are the average benefit 

amounts of disabled worker beneficiaries whose age in current pay is indexed by the 

rows (ages 20 through 66) and whose duration of disability is indexed by the columns 

(durations 0 through 8 and 9+). 

The 100 percent Master Beneficiary Record (100% MBR) extract is processed by a 

side model. The final product of the side model is two matrices of average benefit

levels, one for males and one for females, for December nim1 (2015 for the 2016 

TR). 

For a given year of the projection period, a new average benefit matrix is obtained by 

moving the average benefit matrix from the previous year one year forward. The next 

few paragraphs describe this procedure. 

In general, for each age in current-pay, the age and duration are incremented by 1 and 

the previous PIA amount is given a cost of living adjustment. In addition, the 

beneficiaries are given a workers’ compensation adjustment and a post-entitlement 

adjustment. For each duration j = 0,1,...,7, and 8+ and sex, let the workers’ 

compensation offset factor be denoted wkcomp yr sx dur ( , , ). We have, for durations 0 

through 8, that 

( , , , ) ( 1, , 1, 1) (1 ( ))

(1 ( , , )) ( , , ).

avgmba yr sx ag dur avgmba yr sx ag dur COLA yr

wkcomp yr sx dur PEadj yr sex dur

= − − −×+

× + ×

A more careful explanation of the factors, wkcomp yr sx dur (,, ) and 

PEadj yr sex dur ( , , ), is given later in this document. See the section titled Average 

PIAs and MBAs for Disabled-Worker Beneficiaries, below. To move duration 8 

average benefits to duration 9+ average benefits, both average benefits are given a 

cost of living adjustment and a post-entitlement adjustment (see section “PostEntitlement Adjustments”). The resulting duration 9+ average benefit is the weighted 

average of the adjusted prior year duration 8 and 9+ average benefits, weighted by the 
279 

prior year’s numbers of beneficiaries in current-pay status for durations 8 and 9+ 

respectively.

The only column that does not follow this procedure is the duration 0 column. The 

duration 0 column corresponds to newly entitled disabled-worker beneficiaries. The 

following sections describe how average benefits are determined for this group of 

beneficiaries. 

 

Average Benefits for Newly Entitled Disabled-Worker Beneficiaries

The potential AIME percentage values for newly entitled disabled-worker benefits

(DPAPs) are obtained from the AWARDS subprocess. The two bendpoints of the 

PIA formula, BP1 and BP2, are indexed by the increase in the average wage index. 

In 1979 dollars, the values of BP1 and BP2 are $180 and $1,085 respectively. The 

AIME dollars between 0 and BP1 are divided into four intervals (each of length $45 

in 1979 dollars). The AIME dollars between BP1 and BP2 are divided into fourteen

intervals (nine of length $45 and five of length $100, in 1979 dollars). Twelve 

additional intervals are added beyond BP2 (ten of length $200 and two of length 

$1,000, in 1979 dollars). 

To determine the average PIA for newly entitled beneficiaries, the DPAP values for 

each of the thirty intervals of AIME dollars are multiplied by the dollar amounts 

attributable to each interval (the length of the interval) and by the associated PIA 

factors. The distribution of prior year disability onset and current year disability 

onset is taken into consideration. It is assumed that this distribution is 6 months for 

prior year disability onset and 6 months for current year disability onset. In the 

formulas below, j = 1 signifies current year disability onset and j = 2 signifies prior 

year disability onset.

Let: 

• ( max( 60,1 )) _ (, , ) (1977) j

avgwg yr ag j Wage Idx sx ag yr

avgwg

− −+ = for j=1,2. 

• 1

62

(1 ( 1)) (1 ( )) 64

_ (,) (1 ( ( 62)) 64 66.

ag

k

COLA yr COLA yr ag

Cum COLA ag yr COLA yr k ag

=

 + − ×+ <

 =  + −− ≤ ≤ 

 ∏

2

63

1 ( ) 63

_ (,) (1 ( ( 62)) 63 66.

ag

k

COLA yr ag

Cum COLA ag yr COLA yr k ag

=

 + <

 =  + −− ≤ ≤ 



∏

• 6 1 , 12 2

wj = = j=1,2. 

• PIA_factori represent the PIA factor for interval i (equal to 0.90 for intervals 

i=1..,,4, 0.32 for intervals i=5,...,18, and 0.15 for intervals i=19,...,30). 

• AIME_dollarsi represent the length of interval i, expressed in 1979 dollars.

• dpapi (yr,sx,ag) represent the DPAP value for newly entitled disabled 
280 

workers in year yr whose sex is sx and age is ag. 

To take into account the workers’ compensation offset to disability benefits, 

administrative data is reviewed, from which a factor is developed and applied to the 

average award benefit. We now describe how this factor, facm p yr sx 2( , ) is 

computed. The table 1-A supplement, for each month in 2015, contains total award 

PIA and MBA data for disabled workers, by sex, for beneficiaries both nonactuarially reduced and actuarially reduced. Let totmba DIB nar yr sx _ _ (,) and 

totpia DIB nar yr sx _ _ (,) be the total annual MBA and PIA respectively for DIBs that 

are not actuarially reduced as found in the table 1-A data. In the historical period 

2000-nim1 we define facm p yr sx 2( , ) to be the ratio of the total MBA to the total PIA 

for those not actuarially reduced. In other words, 

_ _ (,) 2( , ) . _ _ (,)totmba DIB nar yr sx facm p yr sx totpia DIB nar yr sx =

In the period ni through ns+9, facm p yr sx 2( , ) is defined as follows. Let 

y facm p nim sex 1 2 ( 1, ) =

y y 2 (1.0 1) / 3.0 = −

1/20

2 ( 1, ) 2 ( , ) max( 1 2,min( 1 2, 2 ( 1, ) )). 2 ( 11, )

facm p yr sx facm p yr sx y y y y facm p yr sx facm p yr sx

  − = − + −×    −

Projected values of facm2p are therefore held within a delta of y2 from the last 

historical year of facm2p. 

This value is further adjusted by the variable facm2p_param to reflect the offset 

amounts that end within the first entitlement year. For the 2016 TR the data suggests 

this factor should be .34. As a result, for yr = ni, ... , ns+9, 

2 ( , ) (1 ) 0.34

0.34 0.66 .

facm p yr sx x x

x

=+ − ×

=+×

The factor reaches its ultimate value in years ns+10 and later.

The preliminary average PIA for newly entitled disabled worker beneficiaries may 

now be defined. It is equal to 

30

1

2

1

_ (, , ) _ _ (,, )

_ (, , ) _ ( , )

2 ( , ).

i i i

i

j j j

j

LR awdpia sx ag yr PIA factor AIME dollars dpap yr sx ag

w Wage Idx sx ag yr Cum COLA ag yr

facm p yr sx

=

=

=××

 

× ×   ×

 

×

∑

∑

Once these average PIAs of newly entitled disabled-worker beneficiaries are 

computed, their values are filled into the average PIA matrices for duration 0 for the 
281 

appropriate entitlement age. 

Average PIAs and MBAs for Disabled-Worker Beneficiaries

An overall average PIA of newly entitled disabled worker beneficiaries for each sex 

and projection year is computed by taking the weighted average of awdpia(sx,ag,yr), 

the weights being the number of disabled workers in current payment status of 

duration zero. This value is denoted awdpia(sx,yr). 

In addition, an overall average PIA and MBA for all disabled worker beneficiaries in 

current-payment status is computed by finding the weighted average of the average 

PIAs for each age in current-pay and duration with the number of people in current 

pay for each of these ages and durations. The average PIAs were already reduced by 

a workers’ compensation offset factor, as briefly described above; a more careful 

description is given in this section. To get the average MBAs, we apply a factor that

reflects the differences in average MBAs and PIAs for disabled workers, isolating 

only the trend in cases with an actuarial reduction. We also provide a relatively small 

reduction to reflect offsets starting and stopping in the year of DI entitlement that are 

not captured by the current method. There is an additional adjustment to the 

weighted average disabled worker PIA and MBA amounts in current pay at durations 

0 and 1 to account for benefit level differences that are phased out by duration 2. 

Workers’ Compensation Offset Factors

For each duration j =1,...,7, and 8+ and sex we define a workers’ compensation 

factor. This factor is applied to the average worker PIA matrix as mentioned above. 

It is denoted wkcomp yr sx dur ( , , ). Let facm p pct dur 2_ ( ) be defined as in the 

following table. 

Duration Cumulative product above set at x% of 

way between original facm2p and 1

1 0.487328

2 0.672613

3 0.754520

4 0.805062

5 0.846726

6 0.871565

7 0.890246

8+ 0.909091

Then wkcomp yr sx dur (,, )is defined so that 

1

2 _ ( ) 2 ( , ) (1 ( , , )).

dur

j

facm p pct dur facm p yr dur sx wkcomp yr sx j == − ×+ ∏

This is an iterative process that first computes wkcomp yr sx ( , ,1) by solving the above 
282 

equation with dur set equal to 1. The remaining factors for higher durations are then 

computed recursively using the above formula. 

Trend in Average MBA to Average PIA 

This trend is captured in a factor denoted Fam p yr sx 2 ( , ). The table 1-A supplement 

as of the end of December 2015 contains total in-current pay PIA and MBA data for 

disabled workers, by sex, for beneficiaries both non-actuarially reduced and 

actuarially reduced. Let totmba nar yr sx _ (,) and totpia nar yr sx _ (,) be the total MBA 

and PIA respectively for DIBs that are not actuarially reduced as found in the table 1-

A data. Similarly, let totmba ar yr sx _ (,) and totpia ar yr sx _ (,) be the total MBA and 

PIA respectively for cases that are actuarially reduced. In the historical period 2000-

nim1 we define fam p yr sx 2( , ) to be the ratio of the total MBA to the total annual PIA 

for those not actuarially reduced. In other words, 

_ (, ) _ (, ) 2( , ) . _ (, ) _ (, )totmba ar yr sex totpia nar yr sex Fam p yr sex totpia ar yr sex totpia nar yr sex+ = +

In the period ni through ns+10, facm p yr sx 2( , ) is defined as follows:

 y fam p nim sex 1 2 ( 1, ) =

 y y 2 (1.0 1) / 3.0 = − 

1/20

2 ( 1, ) 2 ( , ) max( 1 2,min( 1 2, 2 ( 1, ) )). 2 ( 11, )

fam p yr sx fam p yr sx y y y y fam p yr sx fam p yr sx

  − = − + −×    −

The factor reaches its ultimate value in years ns+10 and later.

More Workers’ Compensation Offsets 

As mentioned above, we also we provide a relatively small reduction to retroactive 

benefits to reflect offsets starting and stopping in the year of DI entitlement that are 

not captured by the current method. Based on historical administrative data, we set 

these factors by duration as follows: 

Duration Percentage Reduction

0 0.2406%

1 0.1549%

2 0.0503%

3 0.0237%

4 0.0051%

5+ 0%

We define wkcomp_red(dur) to be 1 minus these percentage reductions. 

By law, disabled workers are no longer subject to the workers’ compensation offset at 

the attainment of a defined age. For those born prior to 1951, the defined age is 65. 

For those born in 1951 and later, the defined age is the Normal Retirement Age 
283 

(NRA).

3

 Therefore, all DI worker benefit levels are adjusted at either age 65 (for 

those born prior to 1951) or at conversion to a retired worker benefit (for those born 

1951 and later) to eliminate the effect of the offset.

Adjustment to Average Benefit Levels at Durations 0 and 1

Average disabled worker PIA and MBAs are adjusted further at durations 0 and 1 by 

a factor, DI_RI_facs, designed to account for average benefit level changes that occur 

when beneficiaries come on the rolls retroactively. This is different than projected 

retroactive payments discussed elsewhere in the documentation. These adjustments 

are phased out by duration 2, when the vast majority of disabled workers have started 

receiving benefits. 

Computation of Average MBA for DI Workers 

The disabled worker PIA as presented in the average benefit matrix was already 

incremented by age and duration using a COLA and a workers’ compensation 

adjustment. The average PIA by year, age and duration, is denoted 

avgpia yr ag sx dur ( , , , ). The overall average MBA by year and sex is the weighted 

average of avgpia yr ag sx dur Fam p yr sx dur ( , , , ) 2 ( , , ), × the weights being the 

number of DI workers in current payment status by age, sex, and duration. 

Post-Entitlement Adjustments 

As cohorts of beneficiaries age, their average benefit level will likely change for 

reasons other than just the COLA increase. The two primary reasons for this are postentitlement work, which could lead to a re-calculation of one’s benefit, and a known 

correlation between greater lifetime earnings and lower mortality rates. The Cost 

process uses post-entitlement factors by sex and duration to account for the expected 

dynamic benefit levels. One percent December MBR data from the most recent 10 

historical years are used to calculate post-entitlement factors.

For disabled workers we calculate separate factors for those in current pay (ICP) who 

are younger than 50 and those ICP who are age 50 or older. We use separate factors 

for each sex and each duration (0-9 +

). Initial and Ultimate factors are calculated 

before being read into the cost program with initial factors set to the most recent 3-

year historical average and ultimate factors at the most recent 10-year average.

All initial factors are phased-in linearly to the ultimate factors over the first 20 years 

of the projection period (reaching the ultimate values in ni+19). 

(2) Retired-Worker Benefits

 

3 The NRA was 65 for individuals born before 1938. It increased to 66 at the rate of 2 months per year for 

individuals born 1938-1943. Under current law, the NRA will increase to 67 for individuals born from 

1955-1960, again at the rate of 2 months per year.
284 

Retired-Worker Beneficiary Matrix

The number of retired-worker beneficiaries for a given year and sex is provided from 

subprocess 3.3. Two matrices are provided – one for males and one for females. The 

structure of each matrix is as follows: 

• 10 columns. The first 9 columns are the age at entitlement, ages 62 

through 70. The last column is the number of disabled workers who are 

projected to convert to retired-worker beneficiary status (DI conversions) 

at normal retirement age.

• 34 rows. These rows correspond to the age in current pay, ages 62 

through 94 and ages 95+. 

Note that the entries on the diagonal at ages 62 through 70 (where age in current-pay 

equals age at entitlement) are the number of new entitlements projected for that year. 

Building the Average Benefit Matrices for Retired Workers

In each projection year, the COST subprocess produces four average benefit matrices. 

For each sex there are two matrices, an average monthly benefit amount (MBA) 

matrix and the average primary insurance amount (PIA) matrix. Each matrix has the 

same structure as the beneficiary matrices. In other words, each matrix is a 34 by 10 

matrix whose entries are the average benefit amounts of retired worker beneficiaries 

whose age in current pay is indexed by the rows and whose age at initial entitlement 

is indexed by the columns. The final column simply gives the average benefits for DI 

conversions at the various ages in current pay. 

The 100% MBR extract is processed by a side model. This side model computes a 

starting matrix for year ni-1. This starting matrix contains the four initial benefit

matrices, constructed using the most recent data. For a given year of the projection 

period, the average benefit matrix is updated from its previous year’s value 

incrementing each benefit amount (PIA or MBA) by one year of age and increasing it 

by a cost of living adjustment (COLA) and by the appropriate post entitlement factor

(see section “Post-entitlement adjustments”) for males and females. Adjusted age 94 

benefits and age 95+ benefits are averaged, based on the respective number of 

beneficiaries in current pay in the prior year, to get the new average benefit for age 

95+. DI conversion benefits are handled similarly, except the average conversion 

benefit for each age 65 through 66 is combined (as a weighted average) between the 

DI conversion average benefits computed in subprocess 3.2 and the DI conversions of 

the corresponding age already receiving benefits (provided by subprocess 3.3).

The entries along the diagonal, the average benefits of newly entitled beneficiaries by 

age, must still be computed. The remainder of this section will explain how these 

average benefits are computed. Once these are computed, all entries are computed 

and the average benefit matrix for the year is complete.
285 

Average Benefits for Newly Entitled Retired Worker Beneficiaries

The potential AIME percentage (OPAPs) values for newly entitled retired-worker 

benefits are obtained from subprocess 4.2. The OPAPs for the projection of average 

benefits for newly entitled retired-worker beneficiaries are modified by the COST 

subprocess. The reason is that the age distribution of newly entitled retired worker 

beneficiaries differs between the projection year and the year of the awards sample. 

To incorporate the change in the age distribution of projected newly entitled retiredworker beneficiaries for determining their average benefits, we use a “shuttling 

method” that allocates appropriate portions of the OPAPs by different ages to 

represent a specific age in the projection year. The resulting new potential AIME 

percentages, by age and sex, are denoted OPAP1. Additional details about the 

shuttling method are given in Appendix 4.3-1. 

Average benefits for newly entitled retired-worker beneficiaries are calculated by sex 

and single years of age 62 through 69, and ages 70+. The two bendpoints of the PIA 

formula, BP1 and BP2, are indexed by the increase in the average wage index. In 

1979 dollars, the values of BP1 and BP2 are $180 and $1,085 respectively. The 

AIME dollars between 0 and BP1 are divided into four intervals (each of length $45 

in 1979 dollars). The AIME dollars between BP1 and BP2 are divided into fourteen 

intervals (nine of length $45 and five of length $100, in 1979 dollars). Twelve 

additional intervals are added beyond BP2 (ten of length $200 and two of length 

$1,000, in 1979 dollars). 

To determine the average PIA for newly entitled beneficiaries, the OPAP1 values for 

each interval of AIME dollars are multiplied by the dollar amounts attributable to 

each interval (the length of the interval). More precisely, let

• PIA_factori be the PIA factor for subinterval i (equal to 0.90 for intervals 

i=1,4, 0.32 for intervals i=4,...,18, and 0.15 for intervals i=19,...,30), 

AIME_dollarsi be the length of subinterval i, 

• opap1i (yr,sx,ag) be the modified PAP value for retired workers newly 

entitled in year yr whose sex is sx and whose age is ag. 

• wff(yr,sx,age) be a reduction factor to account for the Windfall Elimination 

Provision.4

• ( ( 62)) _ (,) ( 2)

avgwg yr ag Wage Idx ag yr avgwg nbase− − = −

• 62

_ ( , ) (1 ( ( 62)))

ag

k

COLA Idx ag yr COLA yr k

=

= × −− ∏

 

4 The Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) reduces the first PIA formula factor from 90% to as low as 

40% for individuals who receive a pension based on specified categories of non-covered employment, 

primarily non-covered state and local government employees and federal workers receiving a pension 

under the Civil Service Retirement System. The cost process uses initial factors by sex and age, ultimate 

factors, years in which ultimate factors are reached and phase-in trend lines to the ultimate factor, all 

supplied by a side model.
286 

Then the average PIA for these newly entitled retired worker beneficiaries is equal to

 

30

1

_ (, , ) _ ( , ) _ ( , ) (,, )

_ _ 1 ( , , ). i i i

i

LR awdpia sx ag yr Wage Idx ag yr COLA IDX ag yr wff yr sx age

PIA factor AIME dollars opap yr sx ag

=

=× ×

×× × ∑

This formula incorporates the fact that the PAP values are the estimated cumulative 

distribution of AIME dollars. The average award MBA for a worker beneficiary is 

then the average newly entitled PIA multiplied by the appropriate actuarial reduction 

factors and delayed retirement credits, arfdrc(ag,yr), based on age at initial 

entitlement. 

Once these average benefits of newly entitled retired-worker beneficiaries are 

computed, their values are filled into the appropriate average benefit matrices.

For summary purposes, the COST subprocess computes an average PIA and MBA for 

all male and female newly entitled retired-worker beneficiaries. These are just the 

respective weighted averages of the average PIAs and MBAs by age and sex, the 

weights being the number of newly entitled retired-worker beneficiaries. Similarly, 

average PIA and MBA for all retired worker beneficiaries in current pay are 

computed, by sex. 

DI Conversions

Disabled-worker beneficiaries convert to retired-worker beneficiary status (called DI 

conversions) at normal retirement age (NRA). The average new DI conversion 

benefit for a given sex at age NRA is the weighted average of the average DI worker 

benefits from the prior year for that sex and age NRA-1, weighted by the number of 

people in current pay in each duration and then increased by the current year COLA 

and adjusted by the appropriate Post-Entitlement factor. The average DI conversion 

benefit for a given sex and single age NRA+1 through 95+ is the average DI 

conversion benefit from the previous year for the same sex and age cohort increased 

by the current year COLA and adjusted by the appropriate Post-Entitlement factor. 

Both the average conversion benefit for each sex and single age NRA through 95+ 

and the number of people in current pay for these ages are used in the computation of 

average retired worker benefits.

Post-Entitlement Adjustments 

As discussed in the previous section, the Cost process uses post-entitlement factors by 

sex and duration to account for changes in benefit levels aside from the cost-of-living 

adjustment. For retired workers we calculate separate factors for those ICP who 

converted from DI status and those ICP who came on the rolls as a retired worker. 

We use separate factors for each sex and each duration (0-12 +

). Initial and ultimate 

factors are calculated before being read into the cost program with initial factors set to 
287 

the most recent 3-year historical average and ultimate factors at a 10-year average. 

For females the ultimate post-entitlement factors are adjusted further to reflect the 

trend that female retired workers are starting to have earnings and benefit levels more 

similar to men. Therefore female ultimate post-entitlement factors are calculated in 

the program as 90% of the male 10-year average plus 10% of the female 10-year 

average. 

All initial factors are phased-in linearly to the ultimate factors over the first 20 years 

of the projection period (reaching the ultimate values in ni+19). 

Adjustment to Average Benefit Levels at Durations 0 and 1

Average retired worker PIA and MBAs are adjusted at durations 0 and 1 by a factor, 

OA_RI_facs, designed to account for average benefit level changes that occur when 

beneficiaries come on the rolls retroactively. This is different than projected 

retroactive payments discussed elsewhere in the documentation. These adjustments 

are phased out by duration 2, when the vast majority of retired workers have started 

receiving benefits.

(3) Annualizing Benefits 

Scheduled benefits are calculated by trust fund and projection year. For each year, 

scheduled benefits for each trust fund are found by adding up the appropriate benefit 

categories. 

This section applies to all benefit amounts except the “dual entitlement excess amount.” 

If a retired worker beneficiary is also entitled to auxiliary spouse or widow(er) benefits 

and these auxiliary benefits are greater, then the amount by which the auxiliary benefit 

exceeds the worker’s MBA is the dual entitlement excess amount. The four categories of 

excess amounts (dually entitled wives, widows, husbands, and widowers) are projected 

separately. More information is found in subsection (4). 

The first step is to determine average benefits by category. A list of the beneficiary 

categories follows. An odd category number refers to the male account holder, while an 

even category number refers to the female account holder. As an example, for category 

4, the aged married spouse is the aged married husband of the retired female worker. 

Category Beneficiary Type

# (cat)

Old-Age Insurance Beneficiaries

1 & 2 Retired worker (includes DI conversions) 

3 & 4 Aged married spouse 

5 & 6 Aged divorced spouse 

9 & 10 Young spouse with child 

11 & 12 Child < 18 

13 & 14 Student child 

15 & 16 Disabled adult child
288 

Disability Insurance Beneficiaries

17 & 18 Disabled worker 

19 & 20 Aged married spouse 

21 & 22 Aged divorced spouse 

25 & 26 Young spouse with child 

27 & 28 Young child

29 & 30 Student child 

31 & 32 Disabled adult child

Survivors Insurance Beneficiaries

33 & 34 Aged married widow 

35 & 36 Aged divorced widow 

39 & 40 Young married disabled widow 

41 & 42 Young divorced disabled widow 

43 & 44 Aged parent 

45 & 46 Young married widow with child 

47 & 48 Young divorced widow with child 

49 & 50 Young child

51 & 52 Student child

53 & 54 Disabled adult child

55 & 56 Lump sum death benefit ($255) 

For the worker categories, the prior sections describe the computation of average benefit 

levels at the end of each year. For a specific auxiliary beneficiary category, the average 

monthly benefit at the end of each year (avgben) is determined by multiplying: 

• The linkage factor (the assumed relationship between an auxiliary beneficiary’s 

benefit level and the corresponding worker benefit level) by 

• The relevant average PIA or the average monthly benefit of the primary account 

holder (the worker beneficiary account on which the auxiliary beneficiary is 

entitled to receive the benefit). 

 

As of the 2016 Trustees Report, the linkage factor for aged spouse categories comes not 

from the qlink workbook, but from file ‘BAsps’. This file is created by a side model with 

the purpose of accounting for the expected changes to average aged spouse benefit levels 

due to the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015. 

In order to annualize benefits for each beneficiary category, two values are used. The 

beginning-of-year average benefit equals the average monthly benefit in December of the 

prior year. The end-of-year benefit equals the monthly average benefit of the worker 

beneficiary for December of the current year without the cost of living adjustment 

(COLA). The average benefit by category for each month is found by taking a weighted 

average of the benefits at the beginning and end of the year, the weights being the 

fractions of the year the prior and current year’s beneficiaries have been exposed. If 

cp(cat,yr) is the number of beneficiaries in category cat for year yr, and avgben(cat,yr) is 

the average monthly benefit for category cat for year yr, then the amount of aggregate 

benefits paid in year yr is given by the formula: 
289 

11

i=0

AggBen( , ) 

(12 ) = ( , 1) ( , 1) ( , ) ( , ) . 12 12

yr cat

i i cp cat yr avgben cat yr cp cat yr avgben cat yr   − × −× −+ × ×     ∑

For all beneficiary categories expect for the lump-sum benefit, the aggregate benefit 

amount is increased by the retroactive payments that were projected to be paid during the 

year. See section (5), below. 

(4) Dually Entitled Beneficiaries and Benefits

Number of Dually Entitled Beneficiaries

There are four categories of dually entitled beneficiaries. They are the dually entitled 

wives (1), widows (2), widowers (3), and husbands (4). To project the number of dually 

entitled beneficiaries for each category we combine a regression equation with two

coefficients each, a slope of ( )

1

k

a and a y-intercept of ( ) k b , with a third factor, ( ) ( ) k

c yr

derived from a process we describe as “add factoring”:

 

( ) ( ) () ()

1

PIA(yr,M) PIA(yr,F) PctExp ( ) ( ) PIA(yr,M)

k k k k

yr a b c yr − = + +

(k=1,2,3,4) project the percentage of the exposed population entitled to wife (1), widow 

(2), widower (3), and husband (4) benefits. 

PIA(yr,sex) is the average PIA of all retired worker beneficiaries in current pay by sex, 

wage-indexed to the year of the sample and PctExp(yr) is the percentage of the entitled 

population in the category that is dually entitled. Only the male (widower and husband) 

dually entitled regression equations warrant the usage of a non-zero y-intercept. We use 

the “add factoring” method with variable ( ) ( ) k

c yr to account for the expected future 

comparative work history changes that will affect dual entitlement populations. 

To derive ( ) ( ) k

c yr , suppose that ( ) k ult is the value obtained from the regression equation 

without add-factoring in the final year of the projection period. Therefore 

() () ( )

1

PIA( 74, M) PIA( 74, F) . PIA( 74, M)

k k ni ni k ult a b

ni

+− + = +

+

Let ( ) k targ be the target value we estimate for the final year of the projection period. Let 

phaseyrs be the number of years it takes to fully phase in the target value. Then we 

have 

() ()

( ) ( ) min( 2014, ) .

k k

k targ ult c yr yr phaseyrs phaseyrs

− =− ×
290 

The following table displays the coefficients, target values, and phase-in years for each 

type of beneficiary.

k Type ( )

1

k

a ( ) k b Target Value

( ) k targ

Add-factoring Phase-in 

Years

phaseyrs

1Wife 0. 85940 0.0 0.205 33

2Widow 1.87591 0.0 0.575 31

3Widower -0.24220 0.13696 0.10 45

4Husband -0.04491 0.02075 0.0085 32

In the above equations, the average PIA of newly entitled retired worker beneficiaries by 

sex has already been computed (see subsection (2) above). 

Average Excess Amount for Dually Entitled Beneficiaries

The projection of the average excess amounts for two categories of dually entitled 

beneficiaries (wives and widows) is similar to that of the number of dually entitled 

beneficiaries. The structure of the equations used to project these amounts is similar to 

the equations used to project the percentage exposures. 

The equations used to project the average excess amount each have two terms. Each 

equation k has one coefficient, ( )

1 , k b calculated in a side model for the cost process based 

on historical series of the other terms in the equations and an add factor adjustment 

(denoted “c

(k)”) similar to the process for the number of dually entitled beneficiaries. A 

target value in the 75th year of the projection period is used in deriving the “add-factor” 

adjustment. The two equations 

( ) ( ) ( )

1

PIA(yr,M) PIA(yr,F) AvgExcPct ( ) ( ) PIA(yr,M)

k k k yr b c yr − = +

( k =1,2 ) project the average excess benefit amounts of wife (1) and widow (2) 

beneficiaries as a percentage of the male retired worker benefit. 

The derivation of ( ) ( ) k

c yr is similar to the case of the exposure percentages as described 

above. Suppose that ( ) k ult is the value obtained from the regression equation without 

add-factoring in the final year of the projection period. Therefore 

() ()

1

PIA( 74,M) PIA( 74,F). PIA( 74,M)

k k ni ni ult b

ni

+− + = +

Let ( ) k targ be the target value we estimate for the final year of the projection period. Let 
291 

phaseyrs be the number of years it takes to fully phase in the target value. Then we 

have 

() ()

( ) ( ) min( 2014, ) .

k k

k targ ult c yr yr phaseyrs phaseyrs

− =− ×

The table below shows the regression coefficients and other relevant adjustments in the 

2016 Trustees Report.

k Type ( )

1

k b Targeted Value (2090) in 

Nominal Dollars

( ) k targ

Add-factoring 

Phase-in Years

phaseyrs 

1 Wife 0.43987 4,035 28

2 Widow 1.23033 10,626 31

The average excess amount of widower beneficiaries is estimated to be a fixed 

percentage (50%) of the average excess amount of widow beneficiaries. That is, 

(3) (2) AvgExcPct ( ) 0.50 AvgExcPct ( ). yr = × yr

The average excess amount of husband beneficiaries is estimated as a percentage of 

average excess amount of dually entitled wives. This percentage is measured to be 

76.24% in 2014 and is assumed to linearly phase to 80% in the 18th year of the projection 

period (2033 for 2016TR).

Annualizing Excess Amounts 

The process to annualize excess amounts is very similar to the process for annualizing 

auxiliary benefits. 

For each dual entitlement category, the number of beneficiaries is simply

( ) ( ) ( , ) PctExp ( ) ExposedPop ( ). cat cat cp yr cat = yr × yr With this method, however, no 

linkage factor is used. Instead, the projected average excess amount, as explained above, 

is used. Therefore, 

11 ( ) ( )

i=0

AggExcess( , ) 

(12 ) = ( , 1) ( 1) ( , ) ( ) . 12 12

cat cat

yr cat

i i cp cat yr AvgExcAmt yr cp cat yr AvgExcAmt yr   − × −× − + × ×     ∑

(5) Retroactive Payments

Frequently, beneficiaries start receiving payments later than their actual entitlement date, 

such that they receive a “catch-up” lump-sum amount for the time delay, in addition to 
292 

regular monthly benefits going forward. These lump-sum amounts, which we call 

retroactive payments, apply for all beneficiary categories (except for the one-time $255 

death benefit) but are more significant for disabled workers because of the frequent and 

sometimes lengthy time lag in getting an allowance on their application, as well as the 12 

months of retroactivity allowed at the time of benefit filing. This section discusses how 

retroactive benefit payments are projected for all beneficiary categories. 

Disabled Workers

For each age and sex the DI area (subprocess 3.2) provides two cumulative distributions 

(one initial and one ultimate), by duration, of incurred but not reported cases. Denote this 

by ibnr yr sex age dur (, , , ) where for years ni-10 to 2008 ibnr factors are set to the initial 

distribution, for years 2018 and after ibnr factors are set to the ultimate distribution, and 

for years 2009 to 2017 we linearly interpolate. The number of disability beneficiaries 

who will eventually receive benefits (by age, sex, and at duration 0) is 

dibce yr sex age dibcp yr sex age ibnr yr sex age ( , , ) ( , , ,0) / ( , , ,0). = 

The associated frequency distribution of incurred but not reported cases is 

ibnr freq yr sex age dur _ ( , , , ). In other words, we have 

ibnr freq yr sex age ibnr yr sex age _ ( , , ,0) ( , , ,0) = for duration 0 and 

ibnr freq yr sex age dur ibnr yr dur sex age dur ibnr yr dur sex age dur _ ( , , , ) ( , , , ) ( , , , 1) =− −− −

 for higher durations, 1 9 ≤ ≤ dur and 10+. 

Let dur be a duration, 0 through 9 or 10+. Define 

• 0

_ ( ) (1 ( )).

dur

j

Cum COLA dur COLA yr j ==+ − ∏

• For i = 0,...,10,

2 0

5 0 and 0 

_ () 12 0 and 0

6 0 and 

dur

dur i

Num Months i

dur i dur

dur i dur

 =



 > = =  > << 



 > =

Then the aggregate retroactive payments for disabled workers, in millions, are defined to 

be 

Retro_DIB(sex,yr)

66 10

20 0 0

6

( , , , 0) _ ( ) _ ( , , )

(,, ) _ ()

_ ()

.

10

dur

age dur i

dibce yr dur sex age Num Months i ibnr freq sex age dur

dibpia age sex dur wkcomp red dur

= = = Cum COLA dur

− ×

= ∑∑∑ ×× ×

dibpia sex age dur (, , ) is further altered in this formula by the adjustment factors in array: 

DI RI facs sex age dur _ _ ( , , ,2) 

These adjustments to dibpia are designed to account for the small differences between 
293 

average benefit levels for all beneficiaries and levels for those receiving retroactive 

credit.

Retro_DIB(sex,yr) is simply added to the disabled worker benefit category by year and 

sex.

Retired Worker Beneficiaries

Retired worker beneficiaries are assumed to have, on average, 0.7 months of retroactive 

payments as determined annually by a side model. Hence 

70

62

(, , , ) 0.7 ( , , , ) 1000 _ ( ,) . 1 () age

oabicp yr sex age age oabmba yr sex age age

retro OAB sex yr = COLA yr

× ×

= + ∑

In the above formula, oabicp yr sex age age (, , , ) is the number of newly entitled 

beneficiaries at age equal to age (age in current pay equals age at entitlement equals age) 

and oabmba yr sex age age (, , , )is the corresponding average benefit. 

oabmba year sex age age ( ,, , ) in the above formula is further altered by the adjustment 

factors:

retrom adj sex _ ( ) {0.9231,1.0201} =

These adjustments to oabmba are designed to account for the small differences between 

average benefit levels for all beneficiaries and levels for those receiving retroactive 

credit.

The aggregate retroactive benefits for retired worker beneficiaries are simply added to the 

retired worker benefit category by year and sex.

Auxiliary Beneficiary Categories

Retroactive payments for auxiliary beneficiaries (determined by a side model) are treated 

as a loading of the aggregate annual benefits by auxiliary category. That is, each 

auxiliary benefit category has a loading factor to represent retroactive payments on top of 

regular monthly benefits, and the aggregate annual benefits by category are increased by 

this loading factor. 

(6) Aggregate Scheduled Benefits (BEN)

Aggregate benefits by trust fund, BEN(tf,yr), are computed as follows. For each year of 

the 75-year long-range projection period, the aggregate benefits by category (including 

retroactive payments, as described above) are summed up to give total annual scheduled 

benefits by trust fund. In the short-range period, the long-range values are overridden by 

the values estimated by the short-range office. The difference between long-range 
294 

scheduled benefits and short-range benefits in the 10th year of the short-range period is 

called the scheduled benefits adjustment. In the 10 years after the end of the short-range 

period, the long-range scheduled benefits are adjusted by linearly grading the scheduled 

benefits adjustment to zero. From the 20th year forward, the projection is the pure longrange value. 

iii. Equation 4.3.3 – Taxation of Benefits (TAXBEN)

The short-range office provides taxation of benefits levels by trust fund in the short-range 

period. These implicitly give, for each year, an estimated taxation of benefits factor, by 

trust fund, equal to the estimated taxation of benefits as a percentage of benefits 

scheduled to be paid. The long-range office projects these factors independently for 

every year of the projection period, also by trust fund. (See subprocess 4.1.) The 

difference in the factors between the two offices at the end of the short-range period is 

phased out linearly over the next ten years. The long-range projection of taxation of 

benefits is estimated by multiplying the projected taxation of benefits factors by the 

benefits scheduled to be paid, by trust fund. If taxben_factor(tf,yr) is the percentage of 

scheduled benefits for the year, by trust funds, estimated to be collected as taxation on 

benefits, then 

TAXBEN tf yr taxben factor tf yr BEN tf yr (, ) _ (, ) (, ) = ×

for yr ns ≥ +10.

iv. Equation 4.3.4 – Administrative Expenses (ADM)

Administrative expenses are estimated separately by trust fund. In the short-range period, 

the short-range office provides the estimates of administrative expenses by trust fund. 

Thereafter, administrative expenses are computed by multiplying the previous year’s 

administrative expenses by three factors: annual changes in total beneficiaries, annual 

changes in AWI, and one minus annual productivity growth. As a formula, if ticp(tf,yr) is 

the total estimated number of beneficiaries in current-pay status by trust fund and year, 

AWI(yr) is the average wage index in year yr, and prod is the ultimate assumed annual 

growth in productivity, then 

( , ) ( , 1) [ ( , ) / ( , 1)] [ ( ) / ( 1)]

(1 )

ADM tf yr ADM tf yr ticp tf yr ticp tf yr AWI yr AWI yr

prod

= −× − × −

× −

for yr ns > .

v. Equation 4.3.5 – Railroad Interchange (RR)

Railroad interchange is disaggregated by trust fund and projection year. The long-range 

office does a projection for each year in the 75-year period. In the short-range period 

(first 10 years of the 75-year projection period), the short-range office provides the 

estimates of railroad interchange by trust fund and the long-range projection is overridden 

in these years. Over the next five years of the projection period, the estimate of the 
295 

railroad interchange is a linear interpolation between the short-range projection at the end 

of the short-range period and the long-range projection five years hence. During the final 

60 years of the projection period, the projection is as estimated by the long-range office.

By trust fund, the total cashflow in year yr, rr_cashflow(tf,yr), is broken down into two 

positive components; railroad benefits in year yr and railroad administrative expenses in 

year yr, and two negative components; railroad contributions in year yr and railroad 

taxation of benefits in year yr. A positive cashflow in this calculation represents a net 

cost to the trust fund. Cashflows are calculated on a fiscal year basis.

Projections of numbers of newly entitled retired workers are determined by analyzing the 

ratio of new entitlements to previous levels of railroad employment using 1997-2013 new 

entitlement data in the analysis. After initial entitlement, a mortality rate of 5.6% for 

2014 is assumed based on analysis of recent Railroad Retirement Board financial 

interchange data, with mortality assumed to improve thereafter. For projections of newly 

entitled disabled workers a similar trend analysis based on prior employment is used. A 

“mortality” rate (deaths plus recoveries plus conversions to retired worker benefits) is 

determined using Railroad Retirement Board (RRB) data, with the rate assumed constant 

thereafter. 

Assuming a 90/10 male/female split, the average benefit level for an OASI railroad 

worker is calculated as a ratio to the average OASI retired worker benefit. This ratio is 

constant throughout the projection period and is derived by comparing MBR and 

Railroad Board data. Additionally a constant loading factor based on the same data is 

applied to aggregate worker benefits to determine the aggregate benefit amounts for 

auxiliary OASI beneficiaries. This same approach is used to determine similar constants 

for DI railroad benefits. The aggregate disabled worker railroad benefits (and 

beneficiaries) are estimated in the same way. 

It is assumed that the ratio of OASI taxation of benefits to OASI benefits and DI taxation 

of benefits to DI benefits are both the same for railroad taxation of benefits. The railroad 

taxation of benefits is estimated by multiplying the railroad benefits by these ratios.

Administrative expenses for railroad are computed separately by trust fund. They are set 

at levels determined by short range in the short-range period. For years ni+10 to nf, they 

are computed similarly to OASDI administrative expenses. Administrative expenses in 

yr-1 are multiplied by (a) the change in the total number of worker beneficiaries, (b) the 

annual change in average wage, and (c) one minus the ultimate productivity growth. 

Railroad contributions are estimated, by trust fund, to be total railroad employment, 

multiplied by average railroad earnings, multiplied by the combined OASDI 

employer/employee tax rate. Railroad earnings are assumed to grow with the increase in 

the average wage index, and railroad employment is assumed to decrease over time, both 

of which are in line with the Railroad Retirement Board’s own “most likely” projections.

The interchange amount is calculated both on a fiscal year basis and at the date of the 
296 

actual transfer from SSA to the Railroad Retirement Board (usually in the first week of 

June in the following year). These interchange amounts can be represented by 

RR_Transfer_FY(tf,yr) and RR_Transfer_CY(tf,yr+1). RR_Transfer_FY(tf,yr) is 

calculated by adding the cashflow amount to an interest amount, rr_interest(tf,yr), which 

includes interest accrued by the cashflow components along with a reconciliation of 

interest amounts from the previous fiscal year calculated transfer amount and the current 

year June interchange. If irate_presc(tf,year) is the prescribed interest rate used by the 

Railroad Retirement Board the interchange amount in June is:

RR Transfer CY tf yr RR Transfer FY tf yr _ _ ( , ) _ _ ( , 1) (1.0 (2.0 / 3.0) _ Pr ( , )) = − × + × Irate esc yf yr

vi. Equation 4.3.6 – Interest Income (INT)

In the short-range period, the projection of interest income by trust fund is provided by 

the short-range office. In each year of the short-range period, the annual yield rate is 

defined as the ratio of interest earned by a fund to the average level of assets held by the 

fund during the year. 

The ultimate annual yield rate on each trust fund is equal to the nominal yield, which is 

the real interest rate increased for inflation. As a formula,

ultimate yield rate real interest rate inflati = + (1 ) (1 ×+ − on rate) 1.

To get the yield rate for each year between the end of the short-range period (ns) and 5 

years later, ns+5, when the ultimate yield rate is assumed to be reached, the program

linearly interpolates between the values for years ns and ns+5. 

The projection of interest income in a given year is the yield rate for that year multiplied 

by the average level of assets. As a formula,

INT tf yr yield tf yr avg assets tf yr ( , ) ( , ) _ ( , ). = ×

The amount of assets in a trust fund at the end of a given year is estimated from the level 

of assets at the beginning of the year by:

• Increasing the level for the tax contributions and taxation of benefits income 

received during the year (each exposed to the point in the year in which they are 

estimated to be received, on average), and 

• Decreasing the level for scheduled benefits, railroad interchange, and 

administrative expenses paid during the year (each exposed to the point in the 

year in which they are estimated to be disbursed, on average). 

For all years of the projection period, tax contributions are given an exposure of 0.518, 

taxation of benefits are given an exposure of 0.625, railroad interchange is given an 

exposure of 0.583, and administrative expenses are given an exposure of 0.5. For 

scheduled benefits, separate OASI and DI exposures are determined through a side 

model. The exposure, ben_exp(yr), is larger than 0.5 in the early years of the projection 
297 

period for both trust funds, whereas in later years OASI benefit exposures fall below 0.5 

with DI remaining above 0.5. The reason is that in the past, benefits were always paid on 

the 3rd of each month. Now benefits are paid out throughout the month, based on the 

birth date of the beneficiary. The reason for the differences between trust funds is that 

benefits are paid on the third of the month (exempting check cycling5) for a higher 

proportion of DI beneficiaries due primarily to (1) concurrent receipt of SSI benefits, or 

(2) state payment of Medicare premiums. The average assets held by the trust funds for a 

given year is estimated by the formula

_ ( , ) ( , ) 0.518 ( , )

0.625 ( , ) ( , ) ( , )

0.583 ( , ) 0.5 ( , ).

BOY avg assets tf yr ASSETS tf yr CONTRB tf yr

TAXBEN tf yr ben_exp tf yr BEN tf yr

RR tf yr ADM tf yr

= + ×

+× − ×

− × −×

vii. Equations 4.3.7, 4.3.8 and 4.3.9 – Annual Values

The annual income rate for a trust fund is computed as the sum of payroll tax 

contributions plus taxation of benefits as a percentage of taxable payroll.

 

(, ) (, ) _ _ (, ) . ( )CONTRB tf yr TAXBEN tf yr ANN INC RT tf yr payroll yr+ =

The annual cost rate for a trust fund is computed as the total cost of providing scheduled 

benefits from that fund as a percentage of taxable payroll. If 

COST tf yr BEN tf yr RR tf yr ADM tf yr ( , ) ( , ) ( , ) ( , ), = ++

then

(, ) _ _ (, ) . ( )COST tf yr ANN COST RT tf yr payroll yr =

The trust fund ratio measures the amount of beginning of year assets that can be used to 

pay total cost. It is expressed as a percentage: 

(, ) (, ) . (, )ASSETS tf yr BOY TFR tf yr COST tf yr =

viii. Equations 4.3.10, 4.3.11, 4.3.12, and 4.3.13 – Summarized Values

Present values of cash flows during the year are computed using the yield rate on the 

combined OASDI trust fund for that year. Each component of trust fund operations is 

exposed, with interest, to the point in the year in which, on average, it is received or 

 

5 Under check cycling many Social Security beneficiaries filing for benefits after April 1997 are paid on 

either the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th Wednesday of each month. In the past, benefits were always paid on the 3rd day of 

each month.
298 

disbursed. These exposure levels, ben_exp(tf,yr), are the same as described above. These 

exposed levels are then discounted to January 1 of the year of the Trustees Report, ni. If 

yield(j) is the annual yield rate on the combined OASDI trust funds for year j and v(yr) is 

the discounting factor for the year, then 

1 ( ) . [1 ( )]

yr

j ni

v yr yield j =

=∏ +

For a given year, and trust fund, 

_ ( , ) (1 0.518 ( )) ( , ) ( ),

_ ( , ) (1 0.625 ( )) ( , ) ( ),

_ ( , ) (1 _ ( , ) ( )) ( , ) ( ),

_ ( , ) (1 0.583 ( ))

PV TAX tf yr yield yr TAX tf yr v yr

PV TAXBEN tf yr yield yr TAXBEN tf yr v yr

PV BEN tf yr ben exp tf yr yield yr BEN tf yr v yr

PV RR tf yr yield yr

=+ × × ×

=+ × × ×

=+ × × ×

=+ × ( , ) ( ),

and _ ( , ) (1 0.5 ( )) ( , ) ( ).

RR tf yr v yr

PV ADM tf yr yield yr ADM tf yr v yr

× ×

=+ × × ×

The target fund for a year is next year’s cost. Its present value is computed as 

PV TARG tf yr BEN tf yr RR tf yr ADM tf yr v yr _ ( , ) [ ( , 1) ( , 1) ( , 1)] ( ), = ++ ++ + ×

Taxable payroll is exposed to the middle of the year when computing present values: 

PV PAYROLL yr _ ( ) (1 0.5 ( )) ( ) ( ). =+ × × × yield yr payroll yr v yr

We also define

PV INC tf yr PV TAX tf yr PV TAXBEN tf yr _ (, ) _ (, ) _ (, ) = +

and

PV COST tf yr PV BEN tf yr PV RR tf yr PV ADM tf yr _ ( , ) _ ( , ) _ ( , ) _ ( , ). = ++

Summarized rates are calculated using beginning of period assets and a target fund. Let 

yr1 = the first year of the valuation period and yr2 = the ending year of the valuation. 

Then the summarized income rate is: 

2

1

2

1

1

1 2

( , ) _ ( ,)

_ _ (, , ) .

_ ()

yr

BOY

j yr

yr

j yr

ASSETS tf yr PV INC tf j

SUMM INC RT tf yr yr

PV PAYROLL j

=

=

 

+     =

∑

∑

The summarized cost rate is similarly computed:
299 

2

1

2

1

2

1 2

_ ( ,) _ ( , )

_ _ (, , ) .

_ ()

yr

j yr

yr

j yr

PV COST tf j PV TARG tf yr

SUMM COST RT tf yr yr

PV PAYROLL j

=

=

    +

  =

∑

∑

The 75-year actuarial balance is computed for a period beginning January 1 of the 

Trustees Report year, ni. It includes both beginning of period assets and a target fund. 

Therefore, 

75 ( ) _ _ ( , , 74) _ _ ( , , 74). ACTBAL tf SUMM INC RT tf ni ni SUMM COST RT tf ni ni yr = + − +

In general, an actuarial balance may be computed for any given subperiod of the 

projection period. In general, actuarial balances for a subperiod beginning on January 1 

of year ni and continuing through the end of year yr are computed using 

, ( ) _ _ ( , , ) _ _ ( , , ). ACTBAL tf SUMM INC RT tf ni yr SUMM COST RT tf ni yr ni yr = −

The unfunded obligation of a trust fund for a given period is the excess of the present 

value of the net cash deficits for each year of that period over the trust fund balance at the 

beginning of the period. The unfunded obligation for the period beginning on January 1 

of year ni and continuing through the end of year yr is computed using 

_ ( , ) [ _ ( , ) _ ( , )] ( , ).

yr

BOY

j ni

UNF OBL tf yr PV COST tf j PV INC tf j ASSETS tf ni =

= −− ∑

Note that the unfunded obligation excludes the target fund. 

ix. Equation 4.3.14—Closed Group Unfunded Obligation 

The closed group is defined as individuals who attain specified ages in the first year of 

the projection period (ni). The Statement of Social Insurance displays unfunded 

obligations for closed groups (1) attaining 15 or later in 2016, (2) attaining 62 or older in 

2016, and (3) attaining 15 to 61 in 2016. For each year of the projection period, closed 

group calculations attribute a portion of the items in equations 4.3.1 through 4.3.6 to 

individuals falling in the defined closed group. The calculation of the closed-group 

unfunded obligation, then, uses the equation above but only considering the present 

values of cost and income attributable to the closed group. 

The following information, developed elsewhere in the “Cost” process, is used for 

developing closed group unfunded obligation amounts:

• Total number of workers and total taxable earnings by single year of age 0-

119 and sex, years 1951 through nf, updated yearly 
300 

• Taxable payroll, years ni through nf, updated yearly 

• Payroll tax income, years ni through nf, updated yearly 

• Income from taxation of benefits, years ni through nf, updated yearly 

• Scheduled benefits by beneficiary category, years ni through nf, updated 

yearly

• Railroad interchange, years ni through nf, updated yearly 

• Administrative expenses, years ni through nf, updated yearly 

• Yield rate on the combined OASDI trust funds, years ni through nf, updated 

yearly 

• Population counts for all retired workers, spouses, divorced spouses, and 

widow(er)s by year, sex, and age 95-119 (read in as a percentage of 95+ 

counts) 

• Distribution of assumed age differentials between aged spouses and workers 

ranging from -12 years to 15 years seniority for the worker by sex of the 

beneficiary, age of the beneficiary 62-74, and marital status 

• Distribution of assumed age differentials between aged widow(er)s and 

deceased workers from -6 years to +12 years 

It is important to note that, for dependent beneficiaries, the age of the worker, on whose 

account the benefits are based, determines whether that beneficiary would fall in the 

closed group. For instance, if the closed group were defined as individuals attaining age 

15 or later in 2016, a 3-year-old minor child receiving benefits in 2016 on the account of 

a retired worker aged 63 would be considered part of this closed group because the 

account holder was at least age 15 in 2016. The following describes how the various 

components of income and cost are allocated to the defined closed group in question: 

Payroll Tax Contributions 

Closed group taxable payroll is defined as the percentage of OASDI taxable payroll 

attributable to the closed group in question. An input file of closed group payroll factors, 

containing these percentages by year from 2016 through 2115, is used by the cost 

program to compute payroll tax contributions attributable to the closed group. For each 

year, the closed group payroll factors are determined as follows:

• The number of projected workers by single year of age (ages 0-119) and 

sex are multiplied by the associated average earnings by age/sex. 

• Then, the portion of total taxable earnings attributable to the closed group 

is calculated. 

For each year of the projection period, the number of workers and average taxable 

earnings by single year of age and sex are determined as follows: 

• For ages 0-99, the number of projected workers comes directly from Economics 

group projections. 

• For ages 100-119, the total age 100+ amounts from Economics are distributed 

among ages 100 through 119 for each projection year using mortality rates 

derived by looking back 10 years and multiplying these populations by 10 years 
301 

of mortality increases by sex.

• For ages 0-14, the average taxable earnings are obtained by analyzing historical 

1993-2012 data of the average earnings at each age relative to age 15 average 

earnings, and judgmentally assigning a ratio (to age 15 average earnings) for each 

age.

• For ages 15-80, the average taxable earnings by age and sex come directly from 

the AWARDS subprocess. 

• For ages 81-99, the average taxable earnings are calculated as a weighted average 

of the average earnings for ages 76-80, weighted by the ratios of earnings between 

these ages and each age 81 through 99 for earnings years 1993 through 2012. 

This is similar to the method to calculate average earnings for ages 0 through 14, 

though here we are using five anchor years instead of one. For ages 100-119, 

average taxable earnings are set equal to the average earnings calculated for age 

99. 

Benefits

Methodologies for computing benefits attributable to the closed groups differ among 

benefit categories, as described below:

Retired Workers 

For each age in current pay, the number of beneficiaries is multiplied by the 

corresponding average benefit amount across all ages of entitlement. The same 

applies for DI conversion cases. Retroactive benefits for the current year, by age, are 

then calculated. The closed-group factors for old-age benefits for each year are found 

by summing the benefit amounts attributable to the specified closed group, as a 

proportion of total retired worker benefits for all ages. This process is done 

separately by sex. 

Disabled Workers

For each age from 20 to the year before normal retirement age, the program adds the 

products of the number of beneficiaries for each duration and the PIA for that 

duration. Retroactive benefits for the current year, by age, are then calculated. The 

closed-group factors for disability benefits are found by summing the total benefit 

amounts attributable to the closed group, as a proportion of total disabled worker 

benefits for all ages. This process is done separately by sex. 

Aged Spouses and Divorced Aged Spouses 

Closed Group calculations are done separately (although in the same manner) for 

aged wives, aged divorced wives, aged husbands and aged divorced husbands 

(combined), dually entitled aged wives, and dually entitled aged husbands. The 

number of aged spouse beneficiaries in each beneficiary category in current pay status 

(no dual entitlement) is provided by single year of age (up through 119). Then, for 
302 

each single year of age, the program allocates total numbers of workers by age, from 

12 years younger to 15 years older than the aged spouse using an assumed categoryspecific distribution. Next, for each age of worker in current pay, the number of 

workers is multiplied by the weighted average retired worker benefit for that age; this 

is done for all ages. The closed group factors, then, are obtained by determining the 

proportion of total benefit amounts attributable to the given closed group (based on 

the worker’s age).

Aged Widows and Divorced Aged Widows 

Closed Group calculations are done separately (although in the same manner) for 

aged widows, aged divorced widows, aged widowers, and aged divorced widowers. 

The number of aged widow(er) beneficiaries in current pay status (no dual 

entitlement) is provided by age from 60 to 119. For each single year of age, the 

program allocates total number of aged widows by age of the deceased husband (age 

the husband would have been if he had not died), from 6 years younger to 12 years 

older than the aged widow using an assumed distribution. The same distribution is 

used in reverse order for aged widowers leading to an age range of 12 years younger 

to 6 years older for the deceased wife. For each age of deceased spouses aged 119 or 

younger, a real wage growth factor is applied to reflect ultimate real wage growth 

taken to the power of the number of years younger than age 119. 

(119 ker ) (1 _ 1.026) deceased wor age Benefitadj wg ult − =+ −

This exponent is intended to reflect differences in average levels of benefits, with 

younger deceased spouses having higher benefits based on real wage growth. The 

closed group factors, then, are obtained by determining the proportion of total benefit 

amounts attributable to the closed group. 

For aged widow(er)s in dual entitlement status (i.e. aged widow(er)s with a smaller 

worker benefit) we do similar calculations with the assumption that the age 

distributions are equal to the combined distribution of non-dually entitled aged 

widow(er)s and aged divorced widow(er)s. 

Other Beneficiary Categories

For the 20 other dependent beneficiaries of retired workers, disabled workers, and 

deceased workers, an input file of closed group benefit factors is created, which 

represents the proportion of total (open-group) projected benefits in that category 

attributable to the given closed group age and year. This file is used by the cost 

program to compute amounts from each beneficiary category attributable to the 

closed group. The file, separately created for each closed group run, contains closed 

group benefit factors for ages 0 through 150 for each of the 20 beneficiary categories 

by sex of the account holder (worker). These input files are created by examining a 

recent sample of Master Beneficiary Record (MBR) data1 for each of the beneficiary 
303 

categories by age of the worker, and projecting future distributions by age of the 

worker based on population and, for survivor benefits, projected deaths by age. Then, 

adjustments are made for real wage growth to reflect different benefit levels by birth 

cohort. 

Taxation of Benefits 

Since taxation of benefits is related to benefits, the closed-group taxation of benefit 

amounts are computed by multiplying the total (open-group) taxation of benefit amounts 

by Trust Fund, by the corresponding total closed-group benefit factors by Trust Fund. 

Administrative Expenses

Since administrative expenses are also assumed to be related to benefits, the closed-group 

administrative expense amounts are computed by multiplying the total (open-group) 

administrative expenses by Trust Fund), by the corresponding total closed-group benefit 

factors by Trust Fund. 

Railroad Interchange 

Since the railroad interchange has both a payroll tax and benefit component, each 

component is multiplied by its corresponding closed-group factor. That is, total payroll 

tax contributions arising from railroad interchange are multiplied by the closed group 

payroll factor discussed above in the “Tax on Contributions” section. Total railroad 

benefits, by Trust Fund, are multiplied by the aggregate closed-group benefit factors by 

Trust Fund. Closed-group railroad administrative expenses and closed-group railroad 

taxation of benefits are also estimated by applying aggregate closed group benefit factors 

by Trust Fund. The final amount is then the difference in the components (closed group 

railroad income less closed group railroad cost). 
304 

Appendix 4.3-1 

Shuttling Method

In this appendix, we discuss the “shuttling method”. 

The shuttling method as presented in the COST model attempts to reorganize the 

PAPs obtained from subprocess 4.2, which maintains a static age-sex distribution of 

newly entitled beneficiaries, in such a way that captures the changing age-sex 

distribution of newly entitled beneficiaries provided by subprocess 3.3. The age-sex 

distribution of the sample (subprocess 4.2) and those newly entitled from subprocess 

3.3 are aligned in the sample year. This alignment persists throughout all years in the 

long-range period. When we refer to the age-sex distribution from subprocess 3.3 in 

what follows below, we refer to the aligned age-sex distribution. 

Let oadsrs be the age/sex distribution of the sample from subprocess 4.2. Let oabicp

be the number of newly entitled beneficiaries by age and sex from subprocess 3.3. 

Let total be the total number of newly entitled beneficiaries by sex. The ratio 

(, ) , ( )oabicp sex age

total sex

for age = 62, ... , 70 gives the age-sex distribution from 

subprocess 3.3. The array rsb_oadscp_sampleyr is the age-sex distribution from 

subprocess 3.3 from the sample year (2013 for the 2016 Trustees Report). 

The value of oadscp is defined, by age and sex, to be: 

(, ) (, ) ( , ) _ _ ( , ). ( )oabicp sex age oadscp sex age oadsrs sex age rsb oadscp sampleyr sex age total sex

= +−

Starting with the 2010 Trustees Report, we set all values of rsb_oadscp_sampleyr to 

the corresponding value of oadsrs. Therefore, the value of oadscp is now defined to 

be:

(, ) (, ) . ( )oabicp sex age oadscp sex age total sex = Despite the fact that we eliminated the actual 

alignment we will still refer to this as the aligned age-sex distribution as obtained 

from subprocess 3.3 (with the assumption that the alignment left the age-sex 

distribution unchanged). 

For each sex, we construct a matrix oads. Construction of this matrix uses two 

different age-sex distributions: the age-sex distribution of the awards sample and the 

aligned age-sex distribution of newly entitled beneficiaries from subprocess 3.3. The 

matrix oads is a 9 9 × matrix whose rows and columns are indexed consecutively by 

the ages 62,..., 70. We index the rows of this matrix by the age of entitlement of a 

worker in the projection (ageentRSB) and the columns of this matrix by the age of 

entitlement of a worker in the Awards sample (ageentAWD). 

More precisely, for a given sex, let oadsrs be the age distribution of the sample; 

oadscp be the aligned age distribution of newly entitled beneficiaries from subprocess 

3.3. Both arrays oadsrs and oadscp are indexed by age, ages = 62, ..., 70. For a 
305 

given sex, the matrix oads is constructed with the following properties: 

70

62

() (, )

ageentAWD

oadscp ageentRSB oads ageentRSB ageentAWD =

= ∑

and

70

62

( ) ( , ).

ageentRSB

oadsrs ageentAWD oads ageentRSB ageentAWD =

= ∑

In other words, the matrix oads has the following properties: 

• The sum of the entries in any row of the matrix is the value of the distribution 

of the projection for the age corresponding to the row. 

• The sum of the entries in any column of the matrix is the value of the 

distribution of the Awards sample for the age corresponding to the column. 

Let opap be the original potential AIME percentages (PAPs) passed to subprocess 4.3 

from subprocess 4.2. This is a 9 30 × matrix whose rows are indexed by ages at 

entitlement 62, ..., 70 and whose columns are indexed by benefit interval 1, ..., 30 

(represented by the variable i in the formulas below). The values of opap are 

modified and the results are the PAPs used by process 4.3, called opap1. As a 

formula, 

70

62

70

62

1( , )

( ,) ( , )

.

(, )

ageentAWD

ageentAWD

opap ageentRSB i

opap ageentAWD i oads ageentRSB ageentAWD

oads ageentRSB ageentAWD

=

=

×

=

∑

∑

This formula may be rewritten as follows.

70

70

62

62

1( , )

(, ) ( ,) .

(, ) =

=

= ∑ ×

∑ ageentAWD

ageentAWD

opap ageentRSB i

oads ageentRSB ageentAWD opap ageentAWD i

oads ageentRSB ageentAWD

It follows that opap1 may be interpreted as a reweighting of opap. We have 

70

,

62

1( , ) ( ,) ageentRSB ageentAWD

ageentAWD

opap ageentRSB i w opap ageentAWD i =

= ∑ ×

with weights ,

(, ). ( ) ageentRSB ageentAWDoads ageentRSB ageentAWD w

oadscp ageentRSB = 

As matrices, opap w opap 1= × (and is another 9 10 × matrix). 

Consider the following example. In this example, the projection year is 2040, and the 

sex is males. 

The oadsrs vector (from subprocess 4.2) is as follows. 

62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70

Male 0.3303 0.1198 0.0630 0.0947 0.3221 0.0291 0.0128 0.0089 0.0194
306 

The unaligned age-sex distribution (from subprocess 3.3) is as follows.

62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70

Male 0.2486 0.1208 0.0468 0.1062 0.1889 0.1607 0.0485 0.0416 0.0380

The age-sex distribution (from subprocess 3.3) in 2013, the year of the sample is 

assumed the same as the oadsrs vector and therefore is as follows. 

62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70

Male 0.3303 0.1198 0.0630 0.0947 0.3221 0.0291 0.0128 0.0089 0.0194

Hence the aligned age-sex distribution (from subprocess 3.3), that is, the oadscp

vector, is as follows.

62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70

Male 0.2486 0.1208 0.0468 0.1062 0.1889 0.1607 0.0485 0.0416 0.0380

The matrix oads, computed in this subprocess (4.3) is as follows. An explanation of 

how this matrix is generated appears below. 

\ 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 Total

62 0.2486 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.2486

63 0.0817 0.0391 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.1208

64 0.0000 0.0468 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.

ageentRSB ageentAWD

0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0468

65 0.0000 0.0339 0.0630 0.0093 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.1062

66 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0854 0.1035 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.1889

67 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.1607 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.1607

68 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0485 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0485

69 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0094 0.0291 0.0031 0.0000 0.0000 0.0416

70 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0097 0.0089 0.0194 0.0380

Total 0.3303 0.1198 0.0630 0.0947 0.3221 0.0291 0.0128 0.0089 0.0194 1.0000

Note that the column total is oadsrs and the row total is oadscp. The oads matrix is 

determined using these row and column sum constraints. The nonzero entries of the 

oads matrix zigzag down and to the right. Starting at the upper left hand corner, the 

lesser of oadsrs and oadscp is put there. So oads(62,62) 0.2486. = 

In this case (as is usually the case), oadscp is less. Since, the difference 

oadsrs oadscp (62) (62) 0.3303 0.2486 0.0817 0.1208 (63) − =−=<= oadscp , by the column 

sum constraint we are forced to have oads(63,62) 0.0817. =

Now we have that the column sum is oadsrs(63). We want the row sum to be 

oadscp(63). We move one spot to the right to oads(63,63). Since 

oadscp oads (63) (63,62) 0.1208 0.0817 0.0391 0.1198 (63), − =−=<= oadsrs the entry

oads(63,63) 0.0391. = 

With the row sum constraint met, we move one down. Since 

oadscp(64) 0.0468 0.1198 0.0391 0.0807, =<−= the entry oads(64,63) 0.0468. = 
307 

The row sum is now oadscp(64), and we move one down. Since 

0.1198 0.0468 0.0391 0.0339 (65) 0.1062, −−=< = oadscp the entry oads(65,63) 0.0339. = 

Since oadscp oads (65) (65,63) 0.1062 0.0339 0.0723 0.0630 (64), − =−=>= oadsrs

by the column sum constraint we are forced to have oads(65,64) 0.0630. =

The column constraint is now met, and we move right one to oads(65,65). For the 

row sum to be oadscp(65) we have oads(65,65) 0.1062 0.0339 0.0630 0.0093. =−−= 

Since the row constraint is now met, we move down to oads(66,65). 

oadsrs oads (65) (65,65) 0.0947 0.0093 0.0854 (66) .1889, − =−=< = oadscp so by the 

column constraint oads(66,65) 0.0854. = 

Now we can get the row total to match oadscp(66) by setting 

oads(66,66) 0.1889 0.0854 0.1035. =−=

Now that this row constraint is met, we move one row down to oads(67,66). Since 

oadsrs oads (66) (66,66) 0.3221 0.1035 0.2186 0.1607 (67), − =−= > = oadscp by the row 

sum constraint we are forced to have oads(67,66) 0.1607 = 

Now that this row constraint is met, we move one row down to oads(68,66). Since 

oadsrs oads oads (66) (67,66) (66,66) 0.3221 0.1607 0.1035 0.0579 0.0485 (68), − − =−−= > = oadscp

 by the row sum constraint we are forced to have oads(68,66) 0.0485. = 

Continuing with this logic, oads(69,66) is set to 

oads(69,66) 0.0579 0.0485 0.0094, =−= and we move right one to oads(69,67). By the 

column sum constraint we are forced to have 

oads(69,67) 0.0291 (67). = = oadsrs

Now the column constraint is satisfied and we move right to oads(69,68). By the 

row sum constraint, this entry is forced to be 

oads(69,68) 0.0416 0.0291 0.0094 0.0031, = −− = . 

Moving down one to oads(70,68), we are bound by the column sum constraint to set, 

oads(70,68) 0.0128 0.0031 0.0097. =−=

Moving to column 69, by the column constraint, the entry oads(70,69)is forced to be 

0.0089. 

Finally, by the row and column constraints, the last entry, oads(70,70), is 0.0194. 

To obtain the w matrix, normalize the rows by dividing by the row sum. 
308 

\ 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70

62 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

63 0.6763 0.3237 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

64 0.0000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0

ageentRSB ageentAWD

.0000

65 0.0000 0.3192 0.5932 0.0876 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

66 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.4521 0.5479 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

67 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

68 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

69 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.2260 0.6995 0.0745 0.0000 0.0000

70 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.2553 0.2342 0.5105

Then, as matrices, opap w opap 1 , = × as one may verify. For display purposes the 

transposes of opap and opap1 are shown. 

 

opap 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70

1 0.9993 0.9990 0.9984 0.9978 0.9989 0.9974 0.9986 0.9975 0.9979

2 0.9865 0.9816 0.9812 0.9738 0.9903 0.9786 0.9705 0.9632 0.9833

3 0.9567 0.9467 0.9510 0.9347 0.9758 0.9466 0.9238 0.9140 0.9518

4 0.9198 0.9109 0.9210 0.8971 0.9596 0.9179 0.8963 0.8739 0.9238

5 0.8826 0.8777 0.8939 0.8652 0.9442 0.8981 0.8778 0.8475 0.9032

6 0.8473 0.8445 0.8656 0.8360 0.9289 0.8835 0.8562 0.8226 0.8873

7 0.8129 0.8132 0.8388 0.8105 0.9136 0.8644 0.8304 0.7994 0.8725

8 0.7795 0.7817 0.8148 0.7838 0.8976 0.8477 0.8088 0.7838 0.8540

9 0.7456 0.7518 0.7921 0.7605 0.8816 0.8310 0.7896 0.7663 0.8367

10 0.7110 0.7214 0.7689 0.7352 0.8651 0.8156 0.7706 0.7497 0.8236

11 0.6766 0.6907 0.7418 0.7111 0.8478 0.7987 0.7524 0.7370 0.8086

12 0.6413 0.6574 0.7119 0.6842 0.8287 0.7823 0.7371 0.7249 0.7981

13 0.6045 0.6235 0.6806 0.6526 0.8070 0.7656 0.7226 0.7164 0.7874

14 0.5398 0.5584 0.6272 0.5968 0.7649 0.7246 0.6826 0.6849 0.7616

15 0.4553 0.4746 0.5442 0.5207 0.7009 0.6608 0.6282 0.6380 0.7197

16 0.3796 0.4009 0.4688 0.4548 0.6341 0.6142 0.5900 0.5999 0.6812

17 0.3076 0.3308 0.3989 0.3902 0.5645 0.5667 0.5549 0.5641 0.6417

18 0.2439 0.2651 0.3362 0.3278 0.4962 0.5144 0.5245 0.5250 0.6060

19 0.1654 0.1855 0.2462 0.2459 0.4024 0.4476 0.4637 0.4715 0.5524

20 0.0893 0.1069 0.1553 0.1604 0.2937 0.3671 0.3872 0.4130 0.4752

21 0.0416 0.0529 0.0874 0.0959 0.1991 0.2839 0.3002 0.3442 0.3907

22 0.0124 0.0186 0.0370 0.0411 0.1049 0.1762 0.1951 0.2482 0.2940

23 0.0007 0.0014 0.0044 0.0038 0.0147 0.0338 0.0441 0.0698 0.1174

24 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

25 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

26 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
309 

27 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

28 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

29 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

30 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

opap1 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70

1 0.9993 0.9992 0.9990 0.9985 0.9984 0.9989 0.9989 0.9978 0.9980

2 0.9865 0.9849 0.9816 0.9807 0.9828 0.9903 0.9903 0.9807 0.9753

3 0.9567 0.9535 0.9467 0.9482 0.9572 0.9758 0.9758 0.9516 0.9357

4 0.9198 0.9169 0.9109 0.9157 0.9313 0.9596 0.9596 0.9258 0.9050

5 0.8826 0.8810 0.8777 0.8862 0.9085 0.9442 0.9442 0.9071 0.8836

6 0.8473 0.8464 0.8445 0.8563 0.8869 0.9289 0.9289 0.8918 0.8641

7 0.8129 0.8130 0.8132 0.8282 0.8670 0.9136 0.9136 0.8731 0.8445

8 0.7795 0.7802 0.7817 0.8015 0.8461 0.8976 0.8976 0.8562 0.8259

9 0.7456 0.7476 0.7518 0.7765 0.8268 0.8816 0.8816 0.8395 0.8081

10 0.7110 0.7144 0.7214 0.7508 0.8064 0.8651 0.8651 0.8236 0.7926

11 0.6766 0.6812 0.6907 0.7228 0.7860 0.8478 0.8478 0.8065 0.7774

12 0.6413 0.6465 0.6574 0.6921 0.7634 0.8287 0.8287 0.7896 0.7653

13 0.6045 0.6107 0.6235 0.6599 0.7372 0.8070 0.8070 0.7719 0.7541

14 0.5398 0.5458 0.5584 0.6026 0.6889 0.7649 0.7649 0.7307 0.7233

15 0.4553 0.4616 0.4746 0.5199 0.6194 0.7009 0.7009 0.6676 0.6770

16 0.3796 0.3865 0.4009 0.4459 0.5530 0.6341 0.6341 0.6170 0.6387

17 0.3076 0.3151 0.3308 0.3764 0.4857 0.5645 0.5645 0.5653 0.6012

18 0.2439 0.2508 0.2651 0.3128 0.4201 0.4962 0.4962 0.5110 0.5660

19 0.1654 0.1719 0.1855 0.2268 0.3316 0.4024 0.4024 0.4385 0.5106

20 0.0893 0.0950 0.1069 0.1403 0.2334 0.2937 0.2937 0.3519 0.4380

21 0.0416 0.0453 0.0529 0.0771 0.1524 0.1991 0.1991 0.2658 0.3565

22 0.0124 0.0144 0.0186 0.0315 0.0761 0.1049 0.1049 0.1613 0.2578

23 0.0007 0.0009 0.0014 0.0034 0.0098 0.0147 0.0147 0.0302 0.0874

24 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

25 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

26 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

27 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

28 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

29 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

30 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000