SOCIAL SECURITY

MEMORANDUM 

Date: November 4, 2005 Refer To: TCA

To: Representative Jim Kolbe 

Representative Allen Boyd 

From: Stephen C. Goss, Chief Actuary 

Alice H. Wade, Deputy Chief Actuary 

Chris Chaplain, Actuary 

Subject: Estimated OASDI Financial Effects of the “Bipartisan Retirement Security Act of 2005”--

INFORMATION

This memorandum provides long-range estimates of the financial effects on the Social Security 

(OASDI) program assuming enactment of the “Bipartisan Retirement Security Act of 2005” 

(H.R. 440), which was introduced on February 1, 2005. Specifications and intent for the 

provisions in the bill were provided by Anthony Chang from Representative Kolbe’s staff. A 

description of these specifications, reflecting our understanding of the intent of this bill, is given 

below. All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report, as 

well as additional assumptions described below. Estimates based on the intermediate 

assumptions of the 2005 Trustees Report would be very similar. 

The comprehensive proposal described in this memorandum would: 

• Modify the computation of OASDI benefit levels in several ways, 

• Transfer specified amounts from the General Fund of the Treasury to the OASDI Trust 

Funds, 

• Credit the OASDI Trust Funds with all revenue from taxing (1) OASDI benefits (including 

amounts now credited to the HI Trust Fund), and (2) disbursements from individual accounts 

(IAs), 

• Change the indexing of the benefit and contribution base, and 

• Establish individual accounts for workers who are under age 55 at the beginning of 2006 by 

redirecting a portion of their payroll tax. 

Enactment of the comprehensive proposal described in this memorandum would improve the 

long-range OASDI actuarial balance by an estimated 2.12 percent of taxable payroll, changing 

the present-law actuarial deficit of 1.89 percent to a positive actuarial balance of +0.23 percent of 

taxable payroll. The trust fund ratio for the combined OASDI program would increase to a peak 

of 357 percent in 2013, then decline to 141 percent in 2048. After 2048, the trust fund ratio 

would begin to rise, reaching 389 percent at the end of the long-range period, at which time the 
 2

ratio would be rising by about 19 percentage points per year. OASDI Trust Fund levels under 

this proposal are thus projected to be (1) positive throughout the long-range (75-year) period and 

(2) rising as a percentage of the annual cost of the program at the end of the period. Thus, the 

proposal meets the criteria for “sustainable solvency” for the foreseeable future. 

It should be noted that the actual yield attained on individual accounts would have an effect on 

the financial status of the OASDI Trust Funds, because disbursements from the accounts would 

be taxed like Social Security benefits, with the proceeds transferred to the trust funds. The 

sensitivity of the financial status to variation in individual account yields would, however, be 

relatively small, as indicated later. 

The remainder of this memorandum provides the following: 

• Description of the provisions of this bill (with modifications to reflect intent) as they would 

affect the Social Security program; 

• Assumptions used for estimates provided in this memorandum; 

• Description of the expected financial effects of enactment of the bill, reflecting stated intent; 

and 

• Tables providing detailed estimates of the financial effects of the bill. 

1. Description of the provisions of this bill (modified to reflect stated intent) as they would 

affect the Social Security program

Provision 1a: Redirect 3 percent of the first $10,000 of taxable earnings and 2 percent of the 

remaining taxable earnings to individual accounts 

Beginning in 2006, for each worker who is under age 55 at the beginning of 2006 (born in 1951 

and later), redirect 3 percent of his/her first $10,000 of taxable earnings and 2 percent of taxable 

earnings in excess of $10,000 to individual accounts. This amount redirected to fund individual 

accounts is taken from the employee's share of the FICA payroll tax. A similar redirection 

would occur for taxable self-employment earnings, with 3 percentage points of the first $10,000 

of taxable self-employment income and 2 percent of taxable self-employment income in excess 

of $10,000 redirected to individual accounts. The $10,000 threshold is increased after 2006 by 

the increase in the Average Wage Index. The Federal Government would collect all redirected 

amounts in the same manner that payroll taxes are collected currently. Accounts would be 

managed and invested, under the direction of the worker, in a federally administered individual 

security account, similar to the government employee Thrift Savings Plan. However, when the 

balance of an individual's federally administered individual security account is at least equal to 

the minimum deposit amount ($7,500 for 2006 and increased by cost-of-living adjustments 

(COLA) thereafter), the individual would be eligible to designate one of a range of certified 

privately administered individual security accounts. For both “tiers,” an Individual Security 

Fund Board would maintain individual account records and would combine account transactions 

in aggregate amounts when dealing with the private investment firms. 
 3

This provision taken alone, with the redirection of payroll tax only and without the effect of 

taxation of benefits considered in provision 1b below, would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial balance by an estimated 2.14 percent of taxable payroll. 

Provision 1b: Disbursements from individual accounts are considered OASDI benefits for 

income tax purposes 

Disbursements to individuals after retirement or to their estates at death from the portion of the 

individual accounts arising from the redirection of the payroll taxes would be considered Social 

Security benefits when determining income taxes. Thus, the revenue from taxing these 

disbursements would be transferred to the OASI, DI, and HI Trust Funds. 

This provision would be expected to increase the long-range actuarial balance relative to present 

law because revenues from taxation of individual account proceeds would be an additional 

source of income to the Trust Funds, in addition to taxes on OASDI scheduled benefits. Taken 

alone, this provision would be expected to increase the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by 

an estimated 0.10 percent of taxable payroll. 

If actual yields on individual account assets only average the yield on long-term government 

bonds, then, taken alone, this provision would increase the long-range OASDI actuarial balance 

by an estimated 0.07 percent of taxable payroll. 

Provision 2: Modification of PIA Formula during 2013-2061

Provision 2 would reduce the upper two factors of the PIA benefit formula (32 and 15) by 2.5 

percent per year (multiply by 0.975) for 2013 through 2031. Then, for years 2032-2061, the 90, 

32, and 15 percent factors would all be reduced by 1.5 percent per year (multiplied by .985). 

The PIA benefit factors applicable for beneficiaries newly eligible in 2061 and later would be 

57.2, 12.6, and 5.9 percent, respectively. This provision would not apply to disabled worker 

beneficiaries, but would apply for retirement and aged survivor benefits after a period of 

disability, as described below. Provision 2, taken alone, would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial balance by an estimated 2.16 percent of taxable payroll. 

Adjustment to benefits for disabled workers or retired workers with disability periods 

The intent of this provision is to limit in two ways the amount of benefit reductions that would 

apply to workers who were born in 1951 and later and had periods of disability. First, because 

the annuity derived from a disabled worker's individual account is first payable at disability 

conversion age (or upon retirement if recovery from an earlier disability has occurred), no 

reduction due to this provision would apply to benefits received as a disabled worker. Second, 

once the disabled worker reaches disability conversion age (or retiring after recovery), the 

reduction due to this provision would be limited, reflecting only the portion of potential working 
 4

years (years from age 22 through age 61) that the individual was not entitled to a disabledworker benefit but after the establishment of individual accounts under the bill in 2006. 

 

For disabled workers who reach disability conversion age or who retire after recovery from an 

earlier disability, the following rules would apply when calculating the primary insurance 

amount for retirement and aged survivor benefits payable after attaining NRA, after retirement 

with a prior period of disability, or after death of the worker. 

Computation of Proportional PIA for Former Disability Recipients

A. The following formula would be used to prorate the PIA at entitlement to OASI 

retirement or aged survivor benefits: 

OASI PIA (without regard to this adjustment) times OASI fraction, 

 where the OASI fraction equals 

(minimum(age 62, age at disability) – maximum (22, age when 

individual accounts began)) / 

 (62 – maximum (22, age when individual accounts began)) 

plus 

DI PIA (present-law scheduled DI PIA) times 

(1 – OASI fraction, as computed above). 

B. In determining the OASI PIA, a PIA would be computed using the formula applicable for 

newly eligible retired workers in the year the converting worker reached age 62 or died. 

The disability freeze years would apply in computing the average indexed monthly 

earnings (AIME). In addition, for those converting at NRA, the AIME would be wageindexed from the year of disability, if earlier than age 60, to age 60. 

C. The prorated retirement PIA at conversion cannot be any higher than the DI PIA. 

With this formula, for a worker becoming disabled relatively soon after the establishment of 

individual accounts who would have relatively low IA assets, a relatively small weight would be 

placed on the (usually) lower OASI benefit for the purpose of computing the retirement benefit 

at conversion. 

For example, a worker born in 1968 who becomes disabled at age 52 in 2020 and is thereafter 

continuously receiving disability benefits would receive no reduction in his/her benefit level due 

to this provision until disability conversion age (ultimately, age 67). At conversion, monthly 

benefits would be available based on the individual account, and a weighted average PIA would 

be computed as described above, which would effectively apply only a portion of the reduction 

due to the change in benefit formula factors at earliest retirement age. In this example, if OASI 

PIA were $900 and the DI PIA were $1,000, the retirement PIA at conversion would equal: 
 5

 $900, OASI PIA, times (52, age at disability, – 38, age when IAs began) / 

 (62 – 38, age when IAs began) plus

 $1,000, DI PIA, times (1 – 14/24, OASI fraction calculated above) 

 = $900 times (14/24) plus $1,000 times (10/24) 

 = $942. 

Provision 3: Reduce the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) by 0.4 percentage points 

According to the language in H.R. 440, this provision would base the present-law OASDI annual 

COLA for monthly OASDI benefits on a new CPI-W series that would reflect a superlative 

formula, of the type currently used for the new "chained" CCPI-U. However, the intent of the 

provision conveyed to us is not consistent with the Bill language. The intent is to reduce the 

COLA by 0.4 percentage points per year. According to current Trustee baseline assumptions, 

conversion to a superlative CPI indexing formula, as written in the Bill, would result in a smaller 

reduction in the COLA, estimated to average 0.22 percentage point per year). Thus, for the 

purpose of this estimate, consistent with stated intent, we assumed the actual COLA would be 

computed using the standard CPI-W, reduced by 0.4 percentage point. The provision would start 

with the COLA scheduled for December 2005 and continue indefinitely thereafter. 

Reducing the current COLA by 0.4 percentage point per year, taken alone, would increase the 

long-range OASDI actuarial balance by an estimated 0.63 percent of taxable payroll. 

Provision 4: Transfer revenue from the General Fund to the OASI Trust Fund 

This provision provides specific transfers to the OASI Trust Fund from the General Fund of the 

Treasury. The amounts would be transferred beginning in 2007 and are specified as an increasing 

percentage of OASDI taxable payroll. These amounts are as follows: 

Calendar 

Year 

Percent of 

Taxable Payroll 

Calendar 

Year 

Percent of 

Taxable Payroll Calendar Years 

Percent of 

Taxable Payroll 

2007 0.02 2011 0.13 2015-2020 0.33 

2008 0.04 2012 0.20 2021-2044 0.39 

2009 0.10 2013 0.24 2045-2065 0.47 

2010 0.12 2014 0.29 2065+ 0.57 

These transfers are intended to approximate the savings derived by the federal on-budget account 

from using chained CPI values for indexing income tax brackets and for other purposes. Taken 

alone, this provision would increase the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by an estimated 

0.36 percent of taxable payroll. 
 6

Provision 5: Shorten the hiatus in the currently scheduled increase in normal retirement age 

(NRA) 

The NRA was increased from age 65 by two months a year beginning with individuals attaining 

age 62 in the year 2000, until it reached 66 for individuals attaining age 62 in the year 2005. 

Under current law, the NRA remains at age 66 for individuals aged 62 in 2005 through 2016. 

Then, the NRA increases 2 months per year until it attains age 67 for individuals aged 67 in 2022 

and later. 

This provision would begin increasing the NRA from 66 to 67 (at a rate of 2 months per year) in 

2013, 4 years earlier than scheduled under current law. The ultimate NRA would remain at age 

67. This provision, taken alone, would increase the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by an 

estimated 0.06 percent of taxable payroll. 

Provision 6: Modify actuarial reduction and increment factors 

Under this provision, the early retirement reduction factors and delayed retirement credits would 

be changed in response to the fact that the marginal increase in the full benefit level (i.e., the 

PIA) for earnings after reaching retirement eligibility age is, generally, relatively small. 

(Reduction and increment factors provided under current law are intended to provide actuarially 

equivalent lifetime benefits for a fixed earnings history regardless of the age at which retirement 

benefits start.) This relatively small marginal increase in the full benefit level results from both 

the AIME formula, which uses 35 years of earnings, and the weighted PIA benefit formula. 

Together, these provide a larger marginal amount of benefit per dollar of additional earnings for 

low earners and for earnings earned early in a worker's career. This provision is intended to 

provide a greater marginal incentive to work past the retirement earliest eligibility age (EEA). 

Because the size of this marginal benefit increase depends upon the extent and level of earnings a 

worker has had in earlier years, no single adjustment can be provided that would be appropriate 

for all workers. Therefore, rough adjustments to the reduction and increment factors have been 

developed for this provision. 

The chart below displays the proposed monthly early retirement reductions that would be 

applicable for retired worker beneficiaries for the first 36 months for which benefits are received 

prior to NRA under both current law and the provision. (Different factors apply for aged spouse 

beneficiaries and aged widow(er) beneficiaries.)

 Monthly Reduction in Benefits for Each of First 36 Months of Retirement 

Before NRA

Age 62 in: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017+ 

Present Law 20/36% 20/36% 20/36% 20/36% 20/36% 20/36% 

Proposal 20/36% 21/36% 22/36% 23/36% 24/36% 25/36%
 7

Similar increases for aged spouse beneficiaries would be applied, increasing the monthly 

reduction for the first 36 months of entitlement before NRA from 25/36 percent under present 

law to 30/36 percent under the provision. 

The reductions that are proposed for the fourth and fifth year of benefit entitlement before NRA 

are 12/24% per month (current law reductions are 10/24% per month) for both retired worker 

and aged spouse beneficiaries. The reductions for the fourth and fifth year of entitlement before 

NRA are applicable to all new eligibles who reach age 62 after 2016 and are phased in for those 

newly eligible in 2013 through 2016. 

The ultimate percentages of PIA payable for retired workers by age at initial benefit entitlement 

are shown in the table below. 

 

Ultimate Percent of PIA Payable for Retired Worker Beneficiaries by Age at 

Initial Entitlement to Benefits

Age at Initial 

Entitlement: 

NRA-5 NRA-4 NRA-3 NRA-2 NRA-1 NRA 

Present Law 70% 75% 80% 86.7% 93.3% 100% 

Proposal 63% 69% 75% 83.3% 91.7% 100%

The percentage of PIA payable for non-disabled aged widow beneficiaries newly eligible at age 

60 would remain at 71.5 percent. The percentages payable for those newly eligible at ages 

between 60 and the NRA would scale linearly between 71.5 and 100 percent, as under present 

law. 

The delayed retirement credit (DRC) under present law is scheduled to increase to 8 percent per 

year for workers attaining age 65 after 2007. Under this provision, the DRC would continue to 

increase at the rate of 0.5 percentage point every two years, with the first new increase applied to 

those attaining age 65 in 2010. An ultimate factor of 10 percentage points per year would be 

reached for workers reaching 65 after 2015. The delayed retirement credit applies for those 

months between NRA and age 70 in which no retired worker benefit is received. 

Taken alone, this provision (increasing the early retirement factors and delayed retirement 

credits) would increase the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by an estimated 0.29 percent of 

taxable payroll. 
 8

Provision 7: Adjust the PIA levels to reflect changes in life expectancy for persons newly 

eligible after 2012 

This provision would adjust the PIA levels of retired worker beneficiaries newly eligible after 

2012 to reflect changes in life expectancy at age 62, based on period life tables produced by the 

Office of the Chief Actuary in the Social Security Administration. This provision does not apply 

to disabled worker beneficiaries. In addition, only a portion of the amount of reduction due to 

this provision would apply to the benefits of retired worker beneficiaries (and their aged 

survivors) who had a prior period of entitlement as a disabled worker beneficiary status. 

Adjustment to benefits of retired workers with no disability periods

The intent of this provision is to adjust benefit levels to reflect actual measured changes in 

longevity. The adjustment would be applied beginning with workers turning age 62 in 2013. 

The adjustment would be a ratio of: 

1. The life expectancy at age 62 from the period life table for the calendar year 2009 to

2. The life expectancy at age 62 from the period life table for the calendar year that is three 

years prior to the year in which the retiree turns age 62. 

For example, the benefit of a worker reaching retirement eligibility age, age 62, in 2013 would 

be reduced based on the increase in period life expectancy at age 62 between 2009 and 2010. 

The two years would generally be the two most recent years of complete data. If the life 

expectancy at age 62 increased from 20.04 to 20.10 between 2009 and 2010, then the benefit 

level of the worker would be multiplied by 0.997 (=20.04/20.10), for a reduction of 0.3 percent. 

For a worker retiring at age 62 in 2014, the reduction in benefit level would be based on the 

increase in life expectancy at age 62 between 2009 and 2011. The chart below provides the 

expected life-expectancy adjustment factors and the benefit reduction percentages that would 

apply to selected cohorts of retired-worker beneficiaries (without periods of disability) using the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report. 
 9

Life-Expectancy Adjustment Factors Projected to Apply to PIA of Retired Workers with 

No Prior Period of Disability1

(1) (2) (3) (4) 

Year retired worker 

turns age 62 

Life expectancy at age 

622 

Life-expectancy 

adjustment factor3

Percent reduction in 

benefit

2012 20.04 NA NA 

2013 20.10 0.9970 0.30% 

2015 20.22 0.9911 1.89 

2020 20.54 0.9757 2.43 

2030 21.17 0.9466 5.34 

2050 22.38 0.8954 10.46 

2070 23.48 0.8535 14.65 

1

In order to assure availability of final data, a 4-year lag may be necessary. 

2

The life expectancies used for this table are based on projections and are for the year that is 3 years prior 

to the year the worker turns age 62. Reductions applied would be based on actual data. 

3

Calculations are based on life expectancy values expressed in more decimal places than are shown in the 

table. 

This provision would not apply to disabled worker beneficiaries. However, a proportion of the 

amount of reduction due to this provision would apply to the benefits of retired worker 

beneficiaries who convert from disabled worker beneficiary status or has a prior period of 

disability entitlement. The application of this provision to the benefits of disabled worker 

beneficiaries and retired and aged survivor beneficiaries with a prior period of disability 

entitlement is the same as described under provision 2 in the section titled, Adjustment to benefits 

for disabled workers or retired workers with disability periods. 

Provision 7, taken alone, would increase the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by an 

estimated 0.52 percent of taxable payroll. 

Provision 8: Change in calculation of AIME 

This provision would apply in determining benefits for retired workers and their dependents and 

for survivors of deceased workers who become newly eligible after 2012. This provision does 

not apply in determining benefits for disabled workers and their dependents. 

In calculating the AIME for a retired worker under present law, the highest 35 years of indexed 

earnings are generally used in determining the numerator of the AIME and a benefit computation 

period of 35 years is used in determining the denominator. Under this provision, the following 

changes would be made in the calculation of the AIME: 

• The number of years of earnings used in calculating the numerator of the AIME is gradually 

increased, reaching all years for individuals becoming newly eligible in 2021. 

• The benefit computation period, used in determining the denominator of the AIME, is 

gradually increased, reaching 40 years (5 additional years), except for the “lower earner” of a 
 10

married couple. Specifically, in the case of a two-earner couple, the benefit computation 

period used in the denominator for the earner with the lower PIA (without regard to this 

provision) is retained at 35 years. 

The chart below indicates the phase-in schedule of the above changes. 

 

Change in Calculation of AIME for Retired Worker 

 (assumes the retired worker is not the lower earner of a married couple) 

Newly Eligible in Years: 2013 – 

2014 

2015 - 

2016 

2017 – 

2018 

2019 – 

2020 

2021+ 

Present Law

Years in Numerator1

 35 35 35 35 35 

Denominator (in years)

2 35 35 35 35 35 

Proposal 

Years in Numerator1 37 39 41 43 all

Denominator (in years)

2 36 37 38 39 40

1

Years in Numerator: Refers to the number of years of earnings used in calculating the numerator of the 

AIME. 2 Denominator (in years): Refers to the benefit computation period (in years) used in calculating the 

denominator of the AIME. 

Under this provision, the number of benefit computation years used for the denominator of the 

AIME for a retired worker turning age 62 after 2020 would be 40. Under current law, the 

number of benefit computation years is determined by subtracting 5 dropout years from the 

number of elapsed years (years age 22 through the year prior to reaching EEA). Under this 

proposed provision, the increase in the number of benefit computation years would be 

accomplished by reducing the number of dropout years, ultimately to zero. 

This provision, taken alone, would increase the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by an 

estimated 0.25 percent of taxable payroll. 

Provision 9: Credit all revenue from taxation of HI benefits to OASDI by 2020 

This provision would redirect revenue collected by the IRS from Federal income taxes payable 

on OASDI benefits, in excess of the tax on 50 percent of such benefits, from the Medicare HI 

Trust Fund to the OASDI Trust Funds. The provision would redirect 10 percent of this revenue 

for 2011, 20 percent for 2012, ... , and 100 percent for 2020 and later. 
 11

Taken alone, this provision would increase the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by an 

estimated 0.43 percent of taxable payroll. 

Provision 10: Establish a minimum PIA level 

For beneficiaries newly eligible in 2010 and later, establish a minimum PIA amount as described 

below: 

For Retired Workers: The minimum PIA would apply to such retired workers who have at least 

41 quarters of coverage (QCs) (reduced by 2 for each year of disabled-worker entitlement). It 

would equal 0% of the Monthly Applicable Poverty Level (see below for definition) for 

individuals with 40 QCs, 80% of the Monthly Applicable Poverty Level for workers with 80 QCs 

(reduced by 2 for each year of disabled-worker entitlement), and 120% of the Monthly

Applicable Poverty Level for workers with at least 160 QCs (reduced by 4 for each year of 

disabled-worker entitlement). The percentage of the Monthly Applicable Poverty Level would be 

prorated between 0% and 80% for individuals with more than 40 QCs but less than 80 QCs. A 

similar proration would occur between 80% and 120% of the Monthly Applicable Poverty Level, 

for workers with more than 80 QCs but less than 160 QCs. These criteria would also apply in 

determining PIA levels used for auxiliary benefits for survivors of workers who died after 

reaching age 62. 

For Disabled Workers and Survivors of Workers Who Die Before Age 62: A minimum PIA 

for disabled worker beneficiaries and for auxiliary benefits for survivors of workers who die 

before age 62 would be similar, except that the quarters-of-coverage requirement would be 

scaled to the number of elapsed years. Thus, the minimum PIA would equal 0% of the Monthly

Applicable Poverty Level (see below for definition) for individuals with QCs less than or equal to 

the number of elapsed years, 80% of the Monthly Applicable Poverty Level for workers with QCs 

equal to twice the number of elapsed years, and 120% of the Monthly Applicable Poverty Level

for workers with QCs equal to or greater than 4 times the number of elapsed years. The 

percentage of the Monthly Applicable Poverty Level would be prorated in a fashion similar to 

that of retired workers, for individuals with QCs between the 0% and 80% thresholds, and 

between the 80% and 120% thresholds. Elapsed years are defined as years between attaining age 

22 and the earliest of disability benefit entitlement, death, or age 61. 

The minimum PIA is phased in during the years 2010 through 2013. For new eligibles in 2010, 

the percentage of the Monthly Applicable Poverty Level is one-fifth of the fully phased in 

percentage. This fraction increases by an additional one-fifth for each year during the phase in 

period, reaching four-fifths for 2013, and five-fifths for 2014 and later. 

The Annual Applicable Poverty Level for 2003 (from Census poverty level figures for 

individuals 65 and older) is $8,825 (Monthly Applicable Poverty Level would equal 1/12 of this 

amount). The Annual Applicable Poverty Level that applies to an individual in their year of initial 

eligibility is determined by increasing the 2003 level by: 

1. the COLA for 2003 through the earlier of (1) the year prior to the year of initial benefit 

eligibility and (2) 2013; and 
 12

2. increases in the average wage index between 2011 and the second year prior to initial 

benefit eligibility. 

Minimum PIA levels would increase by the COLA after benefit eligibility in all cases. 

This provision, taken alone relative to present law, would reduce the long-range OASDI actuarial 

balance by an estimated 0.05 percent of taxable payroll. The incremental effect of this provision, 

after all other provisions in the package are taken into consideration, is a decrease in the longrange OASDI actuarial balance by an estimated 0.36 percent of taxable payroll. 

Provision 11: Gradually increase the benefit and contribution base so that 87 percent of all 

covered earnings is taxable 

Under current law the contribution and benefit base ($87,900 in 2004) is automatically increased 

each year based on increases in the SSA average wage index. The ratio of OASDI effective 

taxable payroll to covered earnings is estimated to be about 85.0 percent in 2004 and is projected 

to be about 83.1 percent in 2014. 

This provision would gradually increase the contribution and benefit base over the period 2006-

2010, so that by the end of this period 87 percent of all covered earnings would be taxable. After 

2010, the contribution and benefit base would be determined so that this level of 87 percent is 

maintained. The actual levels of the base for a given year would be set by looking at actual 

earnings distribution data for two years prior (the most recent data that would be available), 

determining the contribution and benefit base for that year which yields the desired ratio of 

covered earnings that would be taxable, and bringing forward this level two years by changes in 

SSA’s average wage index. 

Taken alone, this provision would increase the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by an 

estimated 0.45 percent of taxable payroll. 

Provision 12: Redesign the PIA formula

Establish a new bend point in the PIA formula equal to 192.0% of the present-law first bend 

point. PIA formula factors would be initially set at 90, 32, 32, and 15 percent (yielding the same 

benefit as current law). Beginning with new eligibles in 2006, the PIA formula factors would be 

gradually adjusted until reaching factors of 90, 70, 20, and 10 for newly eligible beneficiaries in 

2015 and later. The yearly adjustments to the formula factors over the 10-year period (2006 

through 2015) are: 

• The second formula factor would be increased each year by 3.8 percentage points; and 

• The third formula factor would be decreased each year by 1.2 percentage points. 

This provision alone has a negligible effect on the long-range OASDI actuarial balance (i.e., a 

change of less than 0.005 percent of taxable payroll). 
 13

Provision 13: Increased Benefits for Widow(er)s

Under this provision, starting in 2007, all aged surviving spouses (aged 62 or older) would 

receive 75 percent of the benefit that would be received by the couple if both were still alive 

(including all applicable actuarial reductions and delayed retirement credits), if this is higher than 

their current benefit. The benefit provided by this option would be limited to what the survivor 

would receive as a retired worker beneficiary with a PIA equal to the average PIA of all retired 

worker beneficiaries for December of the year prior to becoming eligible for this option. 

Actuarial reduction for this limitation would be computed as if the survivor had begun receiving 

a retired worker benefit on the earliest of the actual ages upon which benefits began as an aged 

spouse, an aged surviving spouse, or a retired worker beneficiary, but not before 62. The 

provision would only apply to those individuals who could potentially qualify for a widow(er)’s 

benefit under Social Security; that is, individuals whose deceased spouses are not fully insured 

would not be eligible for potential increased benefits. 

This provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by an estimated 0.08 

percent of taxable payroll. 

Provision 14: Limit Spousal Benefits Based on Maximum Worker Benefits 

Under current law, aged spouse beneficiaries receive a base benefit of 50 percent of the retired 

worker’s PIA, with reductions for age if the spouse becomes entitled to benefits before normal 

retirement age. Under this provision, individuals newly eligible for aged spouse benefits in 2013 

and later would have aged spouse benefits limited so that the combined benefit of a married 

couple does not exceed the PIA of a hypothetical single worker who earns the taxable maximum 

at ages 22 through 61, and who has the same eligibility year as the retired worker’s PIA. For the 

purpose of this estimate, we assume that the hypothetical single worker has earnings at the 

taxable maximum at ages 22 through 61, and retires at age 62. 

Taken alone, this provision would increase the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by an 

estimated 0.19 percent of taxable payroll. 

2. Assumptions used for estimates provided in this memorandum 

As indicated above, estimates provided in this memorandum are based on the intermediate 

assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report. In addition, the long-term ultimate average annual real 

yield assumed for equities is assumed to be 6.5 percent. An assumed yield on equities is needed 

because income taxes on individual account disbursements are directed to the OASI Trust Fund. 

A consensus exists among economists that equity pricing as indicated by price-to-earnings ratios 

may average somewhat higher in the long-term future than in the long-term past. This is 

consistent with broader access to equity markets and the belief that equities may be viewed as 

somewhat less “risky” in the future than in the past. Equity pricing will vary in the future as in 
 14

the past. Price-to-earnings ratios were very high through 1999, and are now lower. The 

ultimate average real equity yield assumed for estimates in this memorandum is consistent with 

an average ultimate level of equity pricing somewhat above the average level of the past. 

The assumption for an ultimate real equity yield of 7 percent that was used until 2001 was 

developed in 1995 with the 1994-96 Advisory Council. At the time, the Trustees assumption for 

the ultimate average real yield on long-term Treasury bonds was 2.3 percent. Real yields on 

corporate bonds are believed to bear a close relationship to Treasury bond yields of similar 

duration. The 2004 Trustees Report includes the assumption that the ultimate real yield on longterm Treasury bonds will average 3 percent, or 0.7 percentage point higher than in 1995. This 

increase in the assumed bond yield is consistent with a reduction in the perceived risk associated 

with equity investments. 

In order to estimate the income to the OASDI Trust Fund from taxing the disbursements from 

individual accounts, individual accounts are assumed to be managed by a central administrative 

authority (CAA), and, for the purpose of these estimates, are used to purchase indexed life 

annuities at retirement provided by the CAA. The following assumptions were made: 

• During the accumulation period, individual accounts would be, on average, invested in a 

manner equivalent to 50 percent in equities and 50 percent in long-term Treasury bonds. 

• The charge for annual administrative expenses would ultimately average 30 basis points 

during the accumulation period. Higher expenses in early years are assumed to be met with 

General Revenue. 

• During the disbursement period (after retirement), the net real yield on annuities is assumed 

to be 3 percent annually, net of administrative expenses. 

Therefore, during the accumulation period, the assumed annual real yield on individual accounts 

would be 4.45 percent (net of administrative expense), as follows: 

(0.5*6.5% + 0.5*3.0% - 0.3%) = 4.45%. 

3. Estimates of the Financial Effects of Enacting the Bill 

Estimates by Provision 

Table A provides a brief listing of the individual provisions of the proposal, including the effect 

of each provision, separately, on the long-range OASDI actuarial balance. 

Trust Fund Operations 

Table 1 shows estimated annual and summarized income rates, cost rates, balances, and trust 

fund ratios under the proposal. In addition, the table shows the specified general revenue 

transfers under provision 4 of the proposal, expressed as a percentage of taxable payroll. The 

last column displays the portion of the payroll tax rate that would be redirected from the OASDI 

Trust Funds and deposited in individual accounts (effective IA contribution rate). As shown in 

the table, sustainable solvency is indicated for the foreseeable future, because the trust fund ratio 
 15

is positive throughout the 75-year projection period and is steadily rising at the end of the 

projection period. 

Program Assets 

Table 1a provides an analysis of specified General Fund transfers under the proposal and of 

OASDI Trust Fund and individual account assets. Columns 1 through 3 provide the estimated 

amounts of specified General Fund transfers (provision 4 of the proposal), expressed in constant 

2004 dollars, present value as of 1/1/2004, and as a percentage of taxable payroll under the 

proposal. Column 4 provides the cumulative total amount of these transfers (in constant 2004 

dollars) from the General Fund of the Treasury through the end of each year. 

Total projected OASDI Trust Fund assets are shown in column 5. For purpose of comparison, 

the net OASDI Trust Fund assets are also shown for a theoretical Social Security program where 

borrowing authority is assumed for the Trust Funds. The theoretical Social Security program 

with borrowing authority is presented both without and with the specified General Fund transfers 

expected under this plan, in columns 8 and 9, respectively. 

If the individual accounts are considered as a part of a “total system”, along with the OASDI 

program, then it is reasonable to consider “total system assets”. These would be the sum of net 

OASDI Trust Fund assets and IA assets (columns 5 and 6). Under the intermediate assumptions 

and assuming full annuitization of IA assets, total system assets are expected to be large and 

growing in real terms at the end of the 75-year projection period. 

Effects on Federal Unified Budget 

Table 1b (present value dollars) and table 1b.c (constant dollars) provide estimates of the effect 

on federal unified budget cash flows and balances under this plan and these assumptions. The 

first two columns in these tables include sources of changes to the unified budget balance, as 

follows: 

• Annual aggregate OASDI payroll taxes that are redirected to individual accounts (IAs) 

(column 1). These amounts result in a reduction to the unified budget balance because the 

monies leave the government and are deposited in personal accounts; and 

• Other changes in Unified Budget cash flow (as compared to present law) from the other 

benefit provisions (column 2). These amounts do not include intragovernmental transfers to 

the trust funds from provisions 4 and 9, which have no unified budget effect. 

The last three columns present the aggregate effects on the unified budget: 

• Change in the annual unified budget cash flow (column 3), which is simply the sum of the 

sources of unified budget balance changes identified above in columns 1-2; 

• Change in debt held by the public, as of the end of each year (column 4), which represents 

the cumulative change in the unified budget cash flows, with interest (at the assumed rates 

earned by the Trust Funds); and 
 16

• Change in annual unified budget balance (column 5), which includes changes in both unified 

budget cash flow and in interest on the publicly held debt. 

Under this proposal, the effect of the proposal on unified budget cash flow (column 3) would be 

negative initially, but positive starting in 2025. These unified-budget estimates are based on the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report, including the trust-fund interest 

assumption, and thus are not consistent with projections made by CBO and OMB (which use 

different assumptions). 

Cash Flows from the OASDI Trust Funds to the General Fund of the Treasury 

Table 1c provides estimates of the net cash flow from the OASDI Trust Funds to the General 

Fund of the Treasury. Revenue paid by the Treasury to the Trust Funds for the redemption of the 

special-issue Treasury obligations held by the Trust Funds is included here as a negative cash 

flow to the General Fund. 

Values in Table 1c are shown as a percent of taxable payroll, in current dollars, in present value 

dollars as of 1/1/2004, and in constant 2004 dollars (discounted to 2004 with the projected 

growth in the CPI). For comparison purposes, net cash flow is also shown for a theoretical 

Social Security program where transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury to the OASDI 

Trust Funds are assumed to occur as needed to assure full payment of scheduled benefits in 2042 

and later. 

Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Assets/Unfunded Obligation 

Table 1d provides estimates of the amounts of the assets in the combined OASI and DI Trust 

Funds at the end of each year, in present discounted value. Negative values do not indicate 

levels of trust fund assets as the program does not have borrowing authority. Instead, negative 

values reflect the magnitude of the unfunded obligation of the program through the end of the 

year. The first column presents these estimates under present law, where the unfunded 

obligation is $3.7 trillion through 2078, the end of the 75-year long-range period. 

Columns 2 through 4 show the annual effects of the components of the proposal that move the 

OASDI program to elimination of the unfunded obligation. These include the basic OASDI 

changes, payroll tax contributions redirected from the trust funds to the IAs, and the specified 

General Fund transfers in provision 4 of the proposal. 

The combination of the annual effects in columns 2 through 4 is accumulated in column 5, 

showing the effect on projected trust fund assets, or on the unfunded obligation, through the end 

of each year. The final column shows the resulting trust fund asset levels projected under the 

proposal. The overall effect of the proposal is to transform the projected $3.7 trillion long-range 

unfunded obligation for the program under current law into an expected positive trust fund 

balance of $0.7 trillion at the end of the period. 
 17

Taxable Payroll Information 

Table 1e shows taxable payroll projected under the proposal and under current law. Under the 

proposal, taxable payroll is projected to ultimately increase by about 5 percent relative to current 

law. 

Estimates with Low or Risk-Adjusted Yields on Assets 

Tables 2, 2a, 2b, 2c, 2d. and 2e provide an analysis of the implications of realizing actual real 

yields on individual account assets that are equal to the assumed average real yield on long-term

Treasury bonds, or 3 percent. This may be viewed as either illustrating the case where the 

average real yield on equities and corporate bonds is no higher than on government bonds, or 

illustrating the effect of assuming “risk-adjusted” returns on equities and corporate bonds. In 

either case, the “expected” yield on annuitized assets is assumed to match the actual yield, on 

average. 

The historically higher returns on equities and corporate bonds than on Treasury bonds are 

associated with the relatively higher degree of variability in the returns on these assets. One way 

of accounting for the combination of this increased variability and the associated higher expected 

return that is demanded in the markets because of it, is to portray the returns of the more variable 

assets as being the same as the relatively low-yield asset, Treasury bonds. Tables 2 through 2d 

serve this purpose. It should also be noted that while average real yields for equities have been at 

or below average bond yields for periods of a decade or so, the likelihood of having such a low 

average yield for a period of several decades seems extremely low. 

Differences between tables 1 and 2 are small because the only effect on the solvency of the trust 

funds of variation in IA investment yields comes from the relatively small changes in income

taxes paid on the IA distributions. Note that, as indicated in Table 2 under the low-yield 

individual account scenario, the resulting OASDI actuarial balance would be +0.18 percent of 

taxable payroll, and sustainable solvency would be achieved with the Trust Funds increasing 

about 10 percent per year at the end of the 75-year period. 

 Stephen C. Goss 

 Alice H. Wade
 18

 Chris Chaplain

Attachments: 15 
Table A--Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effect of the “Bipartisan Retirement Security Act of 2005”, 

introduced by Representatives Kolbe and Boyd

Number Provision

Estimated Change in 

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change in 

Annual Balance in 75th

year 1/ 

(as a percent of payroll)

1a Beginning in 2006, redirect 3% of first $10,000 in OASDI taxable 

earnings and 2% of earnings above $10,000 up to taxable maximum to 

individual accounts for workers under age 55 in 2006—wage index 

$10,000 threshold for years after 2006.......................................................... -2.14 -2.28 

1b Disbursements from individual accounts are considered OASDI 

benefits for income tax purposes................................................................... 0.10 2/ 0.33 

2 Reduce the 32 and 15 percent PIA formula factors by 2.5 percent 

(multiply by 0.975) for each year from 2013 to 2031. Reduce the 90, 

32, and 15 percent formula factors by 1.5 percent (multiply by 0.985) 

from 2032-2061. This provision does not apply to disabled worker 

beneficiaries. However, a proportion of the amount of reduction due 

to this provision would apply to the benefits of retired worker 

beneficiaries who had a period of entitlement as a disabled worker 

beneficiary .................................................................................................... 2.16 7.27 

3 Beginning December 2005, reduce the COLA for OASDI benefits: 

the reduction is specified at present-law COLA minus 0.4 percentage 

point for the purpose of this estimate ............................................................ 0.63 1.01 

4 Transfer amounts (specified as percentages of taxable payroll) to the 

OASI Trust Fund from the General Fund of the Treasury for years 

after 2006...................................................................................................... 0.36 0.57 

5 Shorten the hiatus in the raising of the normal retirement age from 

2006-2016 to 2006-2012............................................................................... 0.06 0.00 

6 Starting in 2013, increase early retirement reduction factors such that, 

ultimately, the maximum reduction in the PIA for a retired worker 

increases from 30 percent to 37 percent. Increase the delayed 

retirement credits to an ultimate of 10 percent per year ................................ 0.29 0.44 

7 Starting with new eligibles in 2013, adjust the PIA levels of retired 

worker beneficiaries to reflect changes in life expectancy based on 

period life expectancy at age 62. This provision does not apply to 

disabled worker beneficiaries. In addition, only a proportion of the 

amount of reduction due to this provision would apply to the benefits 

of retired worker beneficiaries who convert from disabled worker 

beneficiary .................................................................................................... 0.52 1.89 

8 Increase the benefit computation period by up to 5 additional years for 

new eligibles by adding one year in each year 2013, 2015, 2017, 2019, 

and 2021. In conjunction with increasing the benefit period, phase in 

including earnings for all years in calculating the AIME by adding 2 

years every other year. The lower earner of a married couple would 

have the benefit computation period (denominator of AIME 

computation) retained at 35 years................................................................. 0.25 0.46 

9 Credit all revenue from taxation of OASDI benefits to the OASDI 

Trust Funds by 2020 (phase in revenue from HI to OASDI during the 

period 2011-2020) ........................................................................................ 0.43 0.65 
Table A--Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effect of the “Bipartisan Retirement Security Act of 2005”, 

introduced by Representatives Kolbe and Boyd

Number Provision

Estimated Change in 

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change in 

Annual Balance in 75th

year 1/ 

(as a percent of payroll)

10 Establish an ultimate minimum PIA level for newly eligible beneficiaries 

with quarters of coverage equal to twice their number of elapsed years 

(reduced for any years of disabled worker entitlement) at 80% of the 

applicable poverty level. This would phase down linearly to a minimum 

benefit of 0% of poverty level for those with QCs equal to the number of 

elapsed years (reduced for any years of disabled worker entitlement). This

minimum PIA level would be fully phased in by 2014, and would increase 

by 2 percentage points of the applicable poverty level for each additional 

year of work up to 120% of the applicable poverty level for newly eligible 

beneficiaries with quarters of coverage equal to four times their number of 

elapsed years (reduced for any years of disabled worker entitlement). For 

eligibility years up to 2013, CPI-index the poverty level. For eligibility 

years after 2013, the applicable poverty level would be indexed by 

changes in SSA’s average wage index. The minimum PIA is phased in 

over the period 2010 through 2013 and would be determined from the 

following formula: Ultimate percentage of poverty level X (year – 

2009)/5. 

Disabled workers and survivors not yet age 62 would have the same 

minimum benefit, except that the years of work requirement would be 

scaled to their elapsed years. At conversion, the person would receive 

the same minimum benefit (adjusted for COLAs) with no subsequent 

recomputation of the minimum benefit at NRA .......................................... -0.05 3/ -0.10 

11 Over the period 2006-2010, gradually increase the contribution and 

benefit base so that by the end of the period 87 percent of all covered 

earnings is taxable. After 2010, set base levels to 87 percent ...................... 0.45 0.51 

12 Establish a new bend point in the PIA formula equal to 192.0% of the 

present-law first bend point. PIA formula factors would be initially 

set at 90, 32, 32, and 10 percent (yielding the same benefit as current 

law). Beginning with new eligibles in 2006, the second formula factor 

would be increased each year by 3.8 percentage points, and the third 

formula factor would be decreased each year by 1.2 percentage points, 

until reaching factors of 90, 70, 20, and 10 percent for newly eligible 

beneficiaries in 2015 and later ...................................................................... 4/ -0.05 

13 Increase widow(er)’s benefit to 75% of the couple’s benefit, effective 

for all benefit payments in 2007 or later. Does not affect cases where 

the decedent is not insured (survivor is in a widowed state but not 

eligible for widow(er)’s benefits) ................................................................. -0.08 -0.09 

14 Beginning with individuals newly eligible for aged spouse benefits in 

2013 and later, limit spousal benefits so that the combined benefits of 

a married couple do not exceed the maximum PIA determined by 

eligibility year for a single worker retiring at age 62. For duallyentitled spouses, the provision can only reduce the excess spousal 

benefit over the worker benefit ..................................................................... 0.19 0.29 

Total for provisions 1 through 14 (including interaction among 

provisions) ................................................................................................... 2.12 5/ 6.74 
Table A--Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effect of the “Bipartisan Retirement Security Act of 2005”, 

introduced by Representatives Kolbe and Boyd

Number Provision

Estimated Change in 

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change in 

Annual Balance in 75th

year 1/ 

(as a percent of payroll)

Notes: All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2004 OASDI Trustees Report. 

Totals for individual provisions exclude interaction. 

 1/ Under the intermediate assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report, the annual balance in the 75th year of the projection period is -5.91 percent of 

the taxable payroll for that year. 

 2/ Under the low-yield or risk adjusted IA yield scenario, the estimated change would be 0.07 percent of taxable payroll. 

3/ The incremental effect of this provision, after all other provisions in the package are taken into consideration, is a decrease in the long-range 

OASDI actuarial balance of 0.36 percent of taxable payroll. 

4/ Change in actuarial balance that is negligible (less than 0.005 percent of taxable payroll). 

5/ If individual accounts earn the same as the Government bond yield on Trust Fund assets (2.7 percent net of administrative expense), then the 

total change in actuarial balance for the entire proposal is projected to be 2.07 percent of payroll, rather than 2.12 percent of payroll. 

Social Security Administration 

Office of the Chief Actuary 

November 4, 2005 
Table 1-Trust Fund Operations--Kolbe/Boyd Proposal 

Expected yield scenario

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Interest Rate 3.00

Ultimate Net Real IA Accumulation Rate 4.45 IA Participation Rate1 100%

Ultimate Net Real IA Annuitization Rate 3.00

Change in Effective Specified "Effective"

OASDI OASDI OASDI General IA

Cost Income Annual TFR Contribution Contribution Revenue Contribution

Year Rate Rate2 Balance 1-1-yr Rate Rate Transfers Rate

2004 11.07 12.71 1.64 306 12.40

2005 10.87 12.73 1.86 325 12.40

2006 10.63 10.67 0.04 348 -1.94 10.46 1.94

2007 10.58 10.78 0.20 350 -0.02 10.44 0.02 1.98

2008 10.50 10.80 0.30 353 -0.01 10.43 0.04 2.01

2009 10.53 10.81 0.28 354 0.03 10.45 0.10 2.05

2010 10.54 10.82 0.28 356 -0.01 10.45 0.12 2.07

2011 10.66 10.88 0.22 357 -0.02 10.43 0.13 2.10

2012 10.85 10.99 0.14 355 0.04 10.47 0.20 2.12

2013 10.93 11.06 0.12 357 0.02 10.49 0.24 2.15

2014 11.12 11.15 0.03 356 0.04 10.53 0.29 2.16

2015 11.33 11.22 -0.10 354 0.02 10.55 0.33 2.18

2016 11.54 11.26 -0.28 350 -0.01 10.54 0.33 2.20

2017 11.70 11.30 -0.39 348 -0.01 10.52 0.33 2.21

2018 11.87 11.35 -0.52 344 -0.01 10.51 0.33 2.22

2019 12.05 11.39 -0.65 340 -0.01 10.51 0.33 2.23

2020 12.22 11.45 -0.78 335 -0.01 10.50 0.33 2.23

2021 12.39 11.52 -0.87 329 0.05 10.55 0.39 2.24

2022 12.55 11.53 -1.01 323 -0.01 10.54 0.39 2.25

2023 12.70 11.55 -1.16 316 -0.01 10.54 0.39 2.25

2024 12.86 11.56 -1.29 309 -0.01 10.53 0.39 2.26

2025 13.01 11.58 -1.43 300 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2026 13.14 11.60 -1.54 291 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2027 13.26 11.62 -1.64 282 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2028 13.35 11.64 -1.72 272 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2029 13.42 11.65 -1.77 263 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2030 13.47 11.67 -1.80 253 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2031 13.50 11.68 -1.82 243 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2032 13.52 11.69 -1.82 234 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2033 13.51 11.70 -1.80 224 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2034 13.48 11.71 -1.77 215 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2035 13.43 11.72 -1.71 206 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2036 13.38 11.73 -1.65 197 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2037 13.31 11.73 -1.58 189 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2038 13.23 11.74 -1.49 181 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2039 13.14 11.74 -1.39 174 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2040 13.04 11.75 -1.29 168 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2041 12.94 11.75 -1.19 162 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2042 12.83 11.75 -1.08 156 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2043 12.73 11.76 -0.97 152 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2044 12.62 11.76 -0.86 148 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2045 12.52 11.85 -0.67 145 0.08 10.60 0.47 2.26

2046 12.41 11.85 -0.56 143 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2047 12.31 11.85 -0.45 142 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2048 12.21 11.86 -0.35 141 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2049 12.12 11.87 -0.25 142 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2050 12.04 11.88 -0.16 143 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2051 11.96 11.89 -0.08 145 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2052 11.90 11.90 0.00 147 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2053 11.84 11.91 0.07 150 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2054 11.79 11.92 0.13 154 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2055 11.74 11.92 0.18 158 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2056 11.70 11.93 0.23 163 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2057 11.67 11.94 0.28 168 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2058 11.63 11.95 0.32 174 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2059 11.60 11.96 0.36 180 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2060 11.57 11.97 0.40 186 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2061 11.55 11.98 0.43 193 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2062 11.52 11.98 0.46 200 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2063 11.51 11.99 0.48 208 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2064 11.49 12.00 0.51 216 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2065 11.47 12.11 0.64 224 0.10 10.70 0.57 2.26

2066 11.45 12.11 0.66 234 0.00 10.70 0.57 2.26

2067 11.43 12.11 0.69 244 0.00 10.70 0.57 2.26

2068 11.40 12.12 0.71 254 0.00 10.70 0.57 2.26

2069 11.39 12.12 0.74 265 0.00 10.70 0.57 2.26

2070 11.37 12.13 0.76 276 0.00 10.70 0.57 2.26

2071 11.35 12.13 0.78 287 0.00 10.70 0.57 2.26

2072 11.34 12.13 0.79 299 0.00 10.70 0.57 2.26

2073 11.33 12.14 0.81 311 0.00 10.70 0.57 2.26

2074 11.32 12.14 0.82 324 0.00 10.70 0.57 2.26

2075 11.32 12.14 0.82 337 0.00 10.70 0.57 2.26

2076 11.31 12.14 0.83 349 0.00 10.70 0.57 2.26

2077 11.31 12.15 0.84 363 0.00 10.70 0.57 2.26

2078 11.31 12.15 0.84 376 0.00 10.70 0.57 2.26

2079 11.31 12.15 0.84 389 0.00 10.70 0.57 2.26

 Summarized OASDI

Cost Income Actuarial Change in

2004 Rate Rate Balance Actuarial Balance

-2078 12.08 12.31 0.23 2.12

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report. All values are expressed

 as percentages of taxable payroll, except TFR

1

All workers under 55 as of 1/1/2006 are required to invest 3% of earnings up to $10,000 and Office of the Actuary

 2% of earnings over $10,000 (in 2006 dollars, with $10,000 threshold wage-indexed thereafter. Social Security Administration 2

Includes specified transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury. November 2, 2005
Table 1a--Trust Fund Asset Comparison of the "Bipartisan Retirement Security Act of 2005"

Expected yield scenario Theoretical Social Security

2

with Borrowing Authority:

Proposal Specified General Fund Transfers Total OASDI Individual Net OASDI TF Assets at End of Year

Annual Contributions Accumulated Trust Fund Account Without GF Transfer = With GF Transfer =

Present Value % of Constant as of End Assets at Assets1

 at Required Under Required Under

Year as of 1-1-2004 Payroll 2004$ of Year End of Year End of Year GDP the Proposal the Proposal

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (Billions of $) Billions of Constant 2004$ Billions of Constant 2004 Dollars

2004 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0 1,684 0 11,544 1,684 1,684

2005 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0 1,840 0 11,911 1,840 1,840

2006 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0 1,907 97 12,246 1,998 1,998

2007 0.7 0.02 0.8 0.8 1,972 202 12,562 2,156 2,157

2008 1.8 0.04 2.1 3.0 2,038 316 12,870 2,315 2,318

2009 4.4 0.10 5.3 8.3 2,106 440 13,171 2,473 2,481

2010 5.4 0.12 6.7 15.2 2,177 573 13,466 2,631 2,646

2011 5.8 0.13 7.3 22.9 2,249 716 13,752 2,790 2,813

2012 8.6 0.20 11.2 34.7 2,319 868 14,024 2,944 2,979

2013 10.3 0.24 13.7 49.4 2,390 1,029 14,285 3,091 3,140

2014 12.5 0.29 17.2 68.0 2,458 1,199 14,547 3,230 3,298

2015 14.1 0.33 19.9 89.8 2,522 1,378 14,804 3,360 3,450

2016 13.9 0.33 20.2 112.6 2,577 1,566 15,061 3,478 3,591

2017 13.7 0.33 20.5 136.5 2,628 1,764 15,322 3,584 3,720

2018 13.5 0.33 20.8 161.4 2,672 1,971 15,586 3,675 3,837

2019 13.3 0.33 21.2 187.4 2,709 2,187 15,842 3,750 3,937

2020 13.1 0.33 21.5 214.5 2,738 2,412 16,100 3,805 4,020

2021 15.1 0.39 25.5 246.4 2,761 2,646 16,354 3,841 4,087

2022 14.9 0.39 25.8 279.6 2,774 2,889 16,610 3,857 4,136

2023 14.7 0.39 26.2 314.1 2,776 3,141 16,861 3,851 4,165

2024 14.4 0.39 26.5 350.1 2,768 3,401 17,117 3,823 4,173

2025 14.2 0.39 26.9 387.4 2,750 3,669 17,372 3,773 4,160

2026 13.9 0.39 27.2 426.2 2,720 3,946 17,634 3,700 4,126

2027 13.7 0.39 27.6 466.6 2,682 4,231 17,903 3,604 4,071

2028 13.5 0.39 27.9 508.5 2,635 4,523 18,174 3,486 3,994

2029 13.3 0.39 28.3 552.1 2,581 4,824 18,451 3,346 3,898

2030 13.1 0.39 28.7 597.4 2,521 5,132 18,733 3,184 3,781

2031 12.9 0.39 29.1 644.4 2,456 5,447 19,022 3,000 3,645

2032 12.7 0.39 29.5 693.2 2,387 5,769 19,319 2,796 3,489

2033 12.5 0.39 29.9 743.9 2,316 6,099 19,622 2,570 3,314

2034 12.3 0.39 30.3 796.5 2,243 6,434 19,929 2,325 3,122

2035 12.1 0.39 30.7 851.2 2,171 6,776 20,243 2,062 2,913

2036 11.9 0.39 31.2 907.9 2,100 7,124 20,564 1,780 2,688

2037 11.7 0.39 31.6 966.7 2,030 7,477 20,892 1,481 2,448

2038 11.5 0.39 32.1 1,027.8 1,964 7,835 21,226 1,165 2,193

2039 11.3 0.39 32.5 1,091.1 1,903 8,198 21,562 833 1,924

2040 11.2 0.39 33.0 1,156.8 1,846 8,564 21,904 485 1,642

2041 11.0 0.39 33.4 1,225.0 1,796 8,934 22,252 120 1,345

2042 10.8 0.39 33.9 1,295.6 1,752 9,306 22,605 -262 1,034

2043 10.7 0.39 34.4 1,368.9 1,716 9,680 22,961 -662 707

2044 10.5 0.39 34.9 1,444.8 1,687 10,055 23,322 -1,080 365

2045 12.4 0.47 42.4 1,530.5 1,674 10,430 23,687 -1,516 14

2046 12.2 0.47 43.0 1,619.4 1,671 10,804 24,055 -1,972 -353

2047 12.0 0.47 43.6 1,711.6 1,676 11,178 24,426 -2,449 -737

2048 11.8 0.47 44.2 1,807.1 1,691 11,549 24,799 -2,946 -1,139

2049 11.6 0.47 44.7 1,906.1 1,716 11,917 25,174 -3,465 -1,559

2050 11.4 0.47 45.3 2,008.6 1,751 12,280 25,552 -4,008 -2,000

2051 11.2 0.47 45.9 2,114.8 1,795 12,636 25,936 -4,577 -2,462

2052 11.1 0.47 46.5 2,224.8 1,848 12,985 26,324 -5,172 -2,947

2053 10.9 0.47 47.2 2,338.7 1,909 13,327 26,721 -5,795 -3,456

2054 10.7 0.47 47.8 2,456.6 1,980 13,665 27,123 -6,447 -3,990

2055 10.5 0.47 48.4 2,578.7 2,058 13,999 27,528 -7,130 -4,551

2056 10.4 0.47 49.0 2,705.1 2,144 14,328 27,939 -7,845 -5,140

2057 10.2 0.47 49.7 2,836.0 2,237 14,653 28,354 -8,594 -5,758

2058 10.0 0.47 50.3 2,971.4 2,339 14,974 28,775 -9,378 -6,406

2059 9.9 0.47 51.0 3,111.5 2,448 15,289 29,204 -10,196 -7,085

2060 9.7 0.47 51.7 3,256.5 2,566 15,600 29,639 -11,052 -7,795

2061 9.5 0.47 52.3 3,406.6 2,692 15,906 30,078 -11,946 -8,539

2062 9.4 0.47 53.0 3,561.8 2,825 16,208 30,526 -12,880 -9,318

2063 9.2 0.47 53.7 3,722.3 2,966 16,505 30,978 -13,857 -10,134

2064 9.1 0.47 54.4 3,888.4 3,115 16,797 31,438 -14,876 -10,988

2065 10.8 0.57 66.7 4,071.8 3,284 17,086 31,906 -15,940 -11,868

2066 10.6 0.57 67.6 4,261.5 3,463 17,383 32,379 -17,050 -12,789

2067 10.4 0.57 68.5 4,457.8 3,651 17,677 32,861 -18,208 -13,750

2068 10.3 0.57 69.4 4,660.9 3,850 17,968 33,359 -19,414 -14,753

2069 10.1 0.57 70.3 4,871.0 4,059 18,256 33,859 -20,670 -15,799

2070 9.9 0.57 71.2 5,088.4 4,278 18,543 34,366 -21,978 -16,890

2071 9.8 0.57 72.2 5,313.2 4,507 18,827 34,882 -23,340 -18,026

2072 9.6 0.57 73.1 5,545.7 4,746 19,109 35,404 -24,756 -19,210

2073 9.5 0.57 74.0 5,786.1 4,996 19,391 35,931 -26,230 -20,444

2074 9.3 0.57 75.0 6,034.7 5,257 19,672 36,464 -27,762 -21,728

2075 9.2 0.57 76.0 6,291.7 5,527 19,952 37,006 -29,356 -23,065

2076 9.0 0.57 77.0 6,557.4 5,808 20,232 37,555 -31,014 -24,456

2077 8.9 0.57 78.0 6,832.1 6,100 20,513 38,112 -32,736 -25,904

2078 8.7 0.57 79.0 7,116.1 6,402 20,794 38,677 -34,527 -27,410

2079 8.6 0.57 80.0 7,409.6 6,715 21,077 39,245 -36,387 -28,977

Total, 2004-2078 784.4

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report

1

Including annuity assets, assuming all annuitize fully. Office of the Actuary 2

Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption that the law Social Security Administration

 is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury. November 4, 2005
Table 1b--Unified Budget Effects of the "Bipartisan Retirement Security Act of 2005"

Expected yield scenario 

Change in

Contributions to Other Changes Annual Debt Held Annual

IA by Federal in Unified Budget Unified Budget by Public Unified Budget

Year Government Cash Flow1 Cash Flow (end of year) Balance

(1) (2) (3)=(2)-(1) (4) (5)

(Billions of $, Present Value on 1-1-2004)

2005 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2006 85.7 6.1 -79.6 79.6 -79.6

2007 87.5 8.3 -79.2 158.8 -83.3

2008 89.3 14.4 -74.9 233.7 -83.2

2009 90.8 20.1 -70.7 304.4 -83.0

2010 92.1 25.7 -66.4 370.9 -82.5

2011 92.7 27.7 -65.0 435.9 -84.8

2012 92.9 29.5 -63.4 499.3 -86.7

2013 92.9 36.3 -56.6 556.0 -83.4

2014 92.7 38.4 -54.3 610.2 -84.3

2015 92.3 40.7 -51.6 661.9 -84.8

2016 91.7 43.2 -48.5 710.4 -84.8

2017 91.0 48.5 -42.6 753.0 -81.8

2018 90.2 53.1 -37.1 790.0 -78.9

2019 89.2 57.9 -31.4 821.4 -75.3

2020 88.2 62.7 -25.5 846.8 -71.1

2021 87.1 67.7 -19.4 866.3 -66.5

2022 86.0 72.5 -13.5 879.7 -61.6

2023 84.8 77.0 -7.8 887.6 -56.7

2024 83.6 81.1 -2.5 890.0 -51.8

2025 82.4 85.0 2.6 887.4 -46.8

2026 81.0 88.7 7.7 879.7 -41.6

2027 79.7 92.5 12.8 866.9 -36.1

2028 78.4 95.9 17.5 849.5 -30.7

2029 77.2 99.3 22.1 827.4 -25.1

2030 75.9 102.6 26.7 800.7 -19.3

2031 74.7 105.9 31.2 769.5 -13.3

2032 73.5 109.1 35.5 734.0 -7.2

2033 72.4 112.0 39.6 694.4 -1.2

2034 71.3 114.7 43.5 650.9 4.9

2035 70.1 117.2 47.0 603.9 10.9

2036 69.1 119.2 50.1 553.8 16.5

2037 68.0 120.9 52.9 500.9 22.2

2038 67.0 122.5 55.6 445.3 27.7

2039 65.9 123.9 58.0 387.3 33.3

2040 64.9 125.3 60.4 326.9 38.8

2041 63.9 126.6 62.7 264.2 44.5

2042 62.9 127.9 65.0 199.3 50.3

2043 61.9 129.1 67.2 132.1 56.1

2044 61.0 130.2 69.2 62.9 61.9

2045 60.0 131.2 71.2 -8.3 67.7

2046 59.1 132.2 73.1 -81.5 73.6

2047 58.1 133.1 74.9 -156.4 79.5

2048 57.2 133.8 76.6 -233.0 85.3

2049 56.3 134.4 78.2 -311.1 91.1

2050 55.4 135.0 79.6 -390.8 96.9

2051 54.5 135.4 81.0 -471.7 102.7

2052 53.6 135.8 82.2 -554.0 108.4

2053 52.7 136.0 83.3 -637.3 114.1

2054 51.8 136.1 84.3 -721.6 119.7

2055 51.0 136.1 85.1 -806.7 125.2

2056 50.2 136.0 85.8 -892.5 130.6

2057 49.3 135.7 86.4 -978.8 136.0

2058 48.5 135.3 86.8 -1,065.7 141.2

2059 47.7 134.9 87.1 -1,152.8 146.4

2060 46.9 134.3 87.3 -1,240.1 151.4

2061 46.2 133.7 87.5 -1,327.6 156.4

2062 45.4 133.0 87.6 -1,415.3 161.4

2063 44.7 132.4 87.7 -1,503.0 166.4

2064 43.9 131.7 87.8 -1,590.8 171.3

2065 43.2 130.9 87.7 -1,678.5 176.1

2066 42.5 130.1 87.6 -1,766.1 180.9

2067 41.8 129.3 87.5 -1,853.6 185.7

2068 41.1 128.4 87.3 -1,941.0 190.4

2069 40.4 127.5 87.0 -2,028.0 194.9

2070 39.8 126.4 86.7 -2,114.7 199.4

2071 39.1 125.3 86.2 -2,200.9 203.7

2072 38.5 124.2 85.7 -2,286.6 208.0

2073 37.8 123.0 85.2 -2,371.7 212.2

2074 37.2 121.8 84.6 -2,456.3 216.4

2075 36.6 120.5 83.9 -2,540.2 220.4

2076 36.0 119.2 83.2 -2,623.5 224.4

2077 35.4 118.0 82.6 -2,706.0 228.3

2078 34.8 116.6 81.8 -2,787.9 232.2

2079 34.2 115.3 81.1 -2,869.0 236.0

Total, 2004-2078 4,698.5 7,486.4

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report. Office of the Actuary 1

Excludes intragovernmental transfers from provisions 4 and 9. Social Security Administration

November 4, 2005
Table 1b.c--Unified Budget Effects of the "Bipartisan Retirement Security Act of 2005"

Expected yield scenario 

Change in

Contributions to Other Changes Annual Debt Held Annual

IA by Federal in Unified Budget Unified Budget by Public Unified Budget

Year Government Cash Flow1 Cash Flow (end of year) Balance

(1) (2) (3)=(2)-(1) (4) (5)

(Billions of Constant 2004$)

2005 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2006 94.7 6.7 -88.0 89.3 -90.4

2007 99.6 9.4 -90.1 183.0 -97.3

2008 104.3 16.8 -87.5 276.4 -99.8

2009 108.9 24.1 -84.8 369.6 -102.1

2010 113.4 31.6 -81.8 462.4 -104.3

2011 117.2 35.0 -82.2 558.5 -110.1

2012 120.6 38.3 -82.4 657.5 -115.8

2013 124.0 48.4 -75.6 752.5 -114.5

2014 127.2 52.7 -74.5 849.3 -119.0

2015 130.3 57.4 -72.9 947.7 -123.2

2016 133.2 62.8 -70.5 1,046.8 -126.7

2017 136.1 72.5 -63.6 1,142.4 -125.8

2018 138.9 81.8 -57.1 1,234.6 -125.0

2019 141.5 91.8 -49.7 1,322.1 -122.8

2020 144.0 102.4 -41.6 1,404.0 -119.5

2021 146.5 113.9 -32.7 1,479.3 -115.1

2022 149.0 125.6 -23.4 1,547.3 -109.9

2023 151.3 137.4 -13.9 1,607.9 -104.1

2024 153.7 149.2 -4.5 1,660.8 -98.0

2025 156.0 161.0 5.0 1,705.5 -91.2

2026 158.1 173.0 15.0 1,741.5 -83.6

2027 160.2 185.8 25.6 1,767.7 -74.7

2028 162.3 198.4 36.1 1,784.1 -65.4

2029 164.5 211.6 47.1 1,789.7 -55.0

2030 166.7 225.2 58.6 1,784.0 -43.6

2031 169.0 239.4 70.5 1,766.0 -31.0

2032 171.3 254.0 82.7 1,735.0 -17.4

2033 173.7 268.7 95.1 1,690.6 -2.9

2034 176.1 283.4 107.4 1,632.3 12.4

2035 178.5 298.2 119.7 1,559.8 28.4

2036 181.0 312.4 131.3 1,473.3 44.6

2037 183.6 326.5 142.9 1,372.5 61.6

2038 186.2 340.7 154.5 1,256.9 79.3

2039 188.8 355.0 166.2 1,125.9 98.1

2040 191.5 369.6 178.1 978.9 117.9

2041 194.2 384.7 190.5 814.9 139.3

2042 196.9 400.3 203.4 633.0 162.0

2043 199.7 416.2 216.5 432.2 186.1

2044 202.5 432.4 229.9 211.9 211.4

2045 205.3 448.8 243.5 -28.9 238.3

2046 208.1 465.7 257.6 -291.2 266.8

2047 211.0 482.9 271.9 -575.9 296.7

2048 213.8 500.1 286.3 -883.7 328.0

2049 216.7 517.5 300.9 -1,215.6 360.9

2050 219.5 535.2 315.7 -1,572.5 395.4

2051 222.4 553.1 330.7 -1,955.3 431.5

2052 225.4 571.2 345.9 -2,364.9 469.4

2053 228.3 589.4 361.1 -2,802.3 508.8

2054 231.4 607.5 376.1 -3,268.1 549.6

2055 234.4 625.6 391.2 -3,763.1 592.2

2056 237.5 643.7 406.2 -4,288.3 636.4

2057 240.6 661.8 421.2 -4,844.4 682.3

2058 243.7 679.8 436.1 -5,432.3 729.9

2059 246.9 697.7 450.8 -6,052.8 779.1

2060 250.1 715.5 465.4 -6,706.8 830.2

2061 253.4 733.7 480.3 -7,395.4 883.4

2062 256.7 752.1 495.4 -8,120.1 939.0

2063 260.0 770.9 510.9 -8,882.2 997.0

2064 263.4 789.7 526.3 -9,682.8 1,057.1

2065 266.8 808.6 541.8 -10,523.2 1,119.4

2066 270.3 827.8 557.6 -11,404.7 1,184.4

2067 273.8 847.4 573.6 -12,329.0 1,252.1

2068 277.4 867.0 589.6 -13,297.2 1,322.2

2069 281.1 886.2 605.2 -14,310.3 1,394.4

2070 284.8 905.3 620.6 -15,369.4 1,469.0

2071 288.5 924.4 635.9 -16,475.9 1,546.3

2072 292.3 943.5 651.2 -17,631.1 1,626.2

2073 296.1 962.5 666.4 -18,836.3 1,708.9

2074 299.9 981.5 681.5 -20,093.0 1,794.4

2075 303.8 1000.5 696.7 -21,402.9 1,883.0

2076 307.8 1019.6 711.9 -22,767.4 1,974.6

2077 311.8 1038.9 727.1 -24,188.4 2,069.5

2078 315.8 1058.2 742.4 -25,667.5 2,167.7

2079 319.9 1077.6 757.7 -27,206.5 2,269.3

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report. Office of the Actuary 1

Excludes intragovernmental transfers from provisions 4 and 9. Social Security Administration

November 4, 2005
Expected yield scenario 

Estimate for Modified Present Law

Estimate for Proposal Theoretical Social Security with PAYGO Transfers

Net Amount of Cash Flow from the OASDI Net Amount of Cash Flow from the OASDI

Trust Funds to the General Fund of the Trust Funds to the General Fund of the

Treasury During the Year1 Treasury During the Year1

Percent Billions of Dollars Percent Billions of Dollars

Year of payroll Current $ 1/1/2004 PV Constant 2004$ of payroll Current $ 1/1/2004 PV Constant 2004$

2004 1.4 65 63 65 1.4 65 63 65

2005 1.9 89 82 87 1.9 89 82 87

2006 0.0 1 1 1 2.0 97 85 94

2007 0.2 10 8 9 2.0 105 87 99

2008 0.2 14 11 12 2.0 109 86 100

2009 0.2 10 7 9 1.8 105 78 93

2010 0.1 9 6 8 1.7 103 73 89

2011 0.1 5 4 5 1.6 101 67 85

2012 -0.1 -5 -3 -4 1.4 91 58 75

2013 -0.1 -9 -6 -7 1.2 79 47 63

2014 -0.3 -21 -12 -17 0.9 65 37 50

2015 -0.5 -36 -19 -27 0.6 48 25 36

2016 -0.6 -52 -26 -38 0.4 27 14 20

2017 -0.7 -64 -31 -46 0.1 4 2 3

2018 -0.9 -78 -35 -54 -0.2 -22 -10 -15

2019 -1.0 -94 -40 -63 -0.6 -51 -22 -35

2020 -1.1 -110 -44 -72 -0.9 -84 -34 -55

2021 -1.3 -130 -50 -83 -1.2 -119 -45 -76

2022 -1.4 -151 -54 -94 -1.5 -155 -56 -97

2023 -1.6 -173 -59 -105 -1.8 -195 -66 -118

2024 -1.7 -196 -63 -116 -2.1 -236 -76 -139

2025 -1.8 -220 -67 -126 -2.4 -279 -85 -160

2026 -1.9 -244 -70 -136 -2.7 -324 -93 -181

2027 -2.0 -266 -72 -144 -3.0 -370 -100 -201

2028 -2.1 -288 -73 -152 -3.2 -416 -106 -220

2029 -2.2 -307 -74 -158 -3.4 -463 -112 -238

2030 -2.2 -325 -74 -163 -3.6 -510 -116 -255

2031 -2.2 -342 -73 -166 -3.8 -558 -120 -271

2032 -2.2 -356 -72 -169 -4.0 -606 -123 -287

2033 -2.2 -368 -71 -169 -4.1 -653 -125 -300

2034 -2.2 -377 -68 -169 -4.2 -699 -127 -313

2035 -2.1 -383 -66 -167 -4.3 -744 -127 -324

2036 -2.1 -388 -63 -164 -4.4 -788 -127 -334

2037 -2.0 -390 -59 -161 -4.4 -831 -127 -343

2038 -1.9 -389 -56 -156 -4.4 -873 -126 -350

2039 -1.8 -385 -52 -150 -4.5 -915 -124 -357

2040 -1.7 -379 -49 -144 -4.5 -956 -123 -363

2041 -1.6 -370 -45 -137 -4.5 -1,000 -121 -369

2042 -1.5 -360 -41 -129 -4.5 -1,045 -120 -375

2043 -1.4 -348 -38 -121 -4.5 -1,091 -118 -381

2044 -1.3 -333 -34 -113 -4.5 -1,139 -116 -387

2045 -1.2 -317 -31 -105 -4.5 -1,189 -115 -393

2046 -1.0 -299 -27 -96 -4.5 -1,241 -113 -399

2047 -0.9 -279 -24 -87 -4.6 -1,297 -112 -405

2048 -0.8 -259 -21 -79 -4.6 -1,355 -110 -412

2049 -0.7 -238 -18 -70 -4.6 -1,417 -109 -419

2050 -0.6 -216 -16 -62 -4.6 -1,483 -108 -427

2051 -0.6 -196 -13 -55 -4.6 -1,555 -107 -435

2052 -0.5 -176 -11 -48 -4.7 -1,634 -106 -445

2053 -0.4 -157 -10 -42 -4.7 -1,717 -105 -455

2054 -0.4 -139 -8 -36 -4.8 -1,805 -104 -465

2055 -0.3 -122 -7 -31 -4.8 -1,899 -104 -476

2056 -0.2 -107 -5 -26 -4.9 -1,999 -103 -487

2057 -0.2 -91 -4 -22 -4.9 -2,104 -102 -499

2058 -0.2 -75 -3 -17 -5.0 -2,214 -102 -511

2059 -0.1 -58 -3 -13 -5.0 -2,328 -101 -522

2060 -0.1 -42 -2 -9 -5.1 -2,447 -100 -534

2061 0.0 -26 -1 -6 -5.1 -2,574 -100 -547

2062 0.0 -12 0 -2 -5.2 -2,709 -99 -560

2063 0.0 2 0 0 -5.2 -2,854 -98 -574

2064 0.0 17 1 3 -5.3 -3,003 -98 -587

2065 0.1 35 1 7 -5.3 -3,157 -97 -600

2066 0.1 54 2 10 -5.4 -3,319 -96 -614

2067 0.1 73 2 13 -5.4 -3,489 -96 -628

2068 0.1 95 2 17 -5.5 -3,665 -95 -641

2069 0.2 116 3 20 -5.5 -3,847 -94 -655

2070 0.2 137 3 23 -5.6 -4,037 -93 -669

2071 0.2 157 3 25 -5.6 -4,235 -92 -682

2072 0.2 177 4 28 -5.7 -4,442 -92 -696

2073 0.2 196 4 30 -5.7 -4,660 -91 -710

2074 0.2 213 4 32 -5.7 -4,888 -90 -725

2075 0.2 230 4 33 -5.8 -5,127 -89 -740

2076 0.3 245 4 34 -5.8 -5,377 -88 -755

2077 0.3 260 4 35 -5.9 -5,640 -87 -770

2078 0.3 273 4 36 -5.9 -5,915 -87 -785

2079 0.3 285 4 37 -5.9 -6,204 -86 -801

Total, 2004-78 -1,638 -5,225

Based on intermediate assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report. 1

Trust Funds are assumed to borrow from the General Fund of the Treasury. Equals net Office of the Actuary

 investment in special Treasury Bonds by the Trust Funds less the Amount of General Fund Social Security Administration

 transfers specified in the proposal or in the theoretical plan (PAYGO transfers) November 4, 2005

Table 1c--OASDI Cash Flow to General Fund--Proposal vs Theoretical OASDI 
Table 1d--Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Assets/Unfunded Obligation for the

"Bipartisan Retirement Security Act of 2005"

Expected yield scenario 

Present-Law OASDI

Trust Fund Assets Basic Amount Specified Proposal OASDI

or If Negative, Changes Contributed General Total Change Trust Fund Assets /

Unfunded Obligation in OASDI to IA by Fund Through Unfunded Obligation

Year Through EOY1 Cash Flow2 Fed. Govt. Transfers End of Year3 Through EOY

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) = (1) + (5)

(Billions of $, Present Value as of 1-1-04)

2005 1,674.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,674.6

2006 1,759.0 6.1 85.7 0.0 -79.6 1,679.4

2007 1,845.5 8.3 87.5 0.7 -158.1 1,687.5

2008 1,930.8 14.4 89.3 1.8 -231.2 1,699.6

2009 2,008.4 20.1 90.8 4.4 -297.5 1,711.0

2010 2,080.8 25.7 92.1 5.4 -358.5 1,722.3

2011 2,148.0 28.9 92.7 5.8 -416.5 1,731.5

2012 2,205.6 32.1 92.9 8.6 -468.7 1,736.9

2013 2,252.4 40.4 92.9 10.3 -510.9 1,741.5

2014 2,289.0 44.0 92.7 12.5 -547.0 1,742.0

2015 2,314.3 47.8 92.3 14.1 -577.4 1,736.9

2016 2,327.9 52.0 91.7 13.9 -603.2 1,724.7

2017 2,329.7 58.8 91.0 13.7 -621.8 1,707.9

2018 2,319.7 65.1 90.2 13.5 -633.4 1,686.3

2019 2,297.6 71.4 89.2 13.3 -637.9 1,659.8

2020 2,263.7 77.9 88.2 13.1 -635.0 1,628.7

2021 2,218.5 82.9 87.1 15.1 -624.0 1,594.4

2022 2,162.6 87.8 86.0 14.9 -607.3 1,555.3

2023 2,096.4 92.4 84.8 14.7 -585.0 1,511.4

2024 2,020.7 96.6 83.6 14.4 -557.6 1,463.1

2025 1,936.1 100.5 82.4 14.2 -525.3 1,410.8

2026 1,843.3 104.2 81.0 13.9 -488.1 1,355.2

2027 1,743.3 108.0 79.7 13.7 -446.1 1,297.2

2028 1,637.0 111.4 78.4 13.5 -399.6 1,237.4

2029 1,525.4 114.8 77.2 13.3 -348.6 1,176.8

2030 1,409.4 118.1 75.9 13.1 -293.4 1,116.0

2031 1,289.5 121.3 74.7 12.9 -234.0 1,055.5

2032 1,166.5 124.4 73.5 12.7 -170.5 996.0

2033 1,041.2 127.2 72.4 12.5 -103.2 938.0

2034 914.6 129.8 71.3 12.3 -32.5 882.1

2035 787.2 132.1 70.1 12.1 41.5 828.8

2036 659.9 133.9 69.1 11.9 118.3 778.2

2037 533.0 135.5 68.0 11.7 197.5 730.5

2038 407.2 136.9 67.0 11.5 279.0 686.2

2039 282.7 138.2 65.9 11.3 362.6 645.3

2040 159.8 139.3 64.9 11.2 448.2 607.9

2041 38.4 140.5 63.9 11.0 535.7 574.2

2042 -81.4 141.6 62.9 10.8 625.2 543.8

2043 -199.5 142.6 61.9 10.7 716.5 517.0

2044 -316.0 143.5 61.0 10.5 809.6 493.6

2045 -430.8 144.4 60.0 12.4 906.3 475.5

2046 -544.1 145.2 59.1 12.2 1,004.6 460.6

2047 -655.8 145.9 58.1 12.0 1,104.4 448.6

2048 -766.0 146.5 57.2 11.8 1,205.5 439.5

2049 -874.8 147.0 56.3 11.6 1,307.8 433.0

2050 -982.4 147.4 55.4 11.4 1,411.3 428.9

2051 -1,089.0 147.8 54.5 11.2 1,515.9 426.8

2052 -1,194.8 148.0 53.6 11.1 1,621.4 426.6

2053 -1,299.7 148.1 52.7 10.9 1,727.7 428.0

2054 -1,403.9 148.1 51.8 10.7 1,834.7 430.8

2055 -1,507.4 148.0 51.0 10.5 1,942.2 434.7

2056 -1,610.3 147.7 50.2 10.4 2,050.1 439.7

2057 -1,712.7 147.3 49.3 10.2 2,158.2 445.6

2058 -1,814.4 146.8 48.5 10.0 2,266.6 452.2

2059 -1,915.3 146.2 47.7 9.9 2,375.0 459.6

2060 -2,015.6 145.5 46.9 9.7 2,483.3 467.7

2061 -2,115.1 144.8 46.2 9.5 2,591.4 476.3

2062 -2,214.1 144.1 45.4 9.4 2,699.5 485.3

2063 -2,312.6 143.3 44.7 9.2 2,807.3 494.7

2064 -2,410.5 142.4 43.9 9.1 2,914.9 504.4

2065 -2,507.7 141.5 43.2 10.8 3,024.1 516.4

2066 -2,604.1 140.6 42.5 10.6 3,132.8 528.7

2067 -2,699.9 139.6 41.8 10.4 3,241.1 541.2

2068 -2,794.9 138.7 41.1 10.3 3,349.0 554.0

2069 -2,889.1 137.5 40.4 10.1 3,456.2 567.0

2070 -2,982.5 136.4 39.8 9.9 3,562.7 580.2

2071 -3,075.0 135.1 39.1 9.8 3,668.5 593.5

2072 -3,166.6 133.8 38.5 9.6 3,773.5 606.9

2073 -3,257.4 132.5 37.8 9.5 3,877.6 620.2

2074 -3,347.3 131.1 37.2 9.3 3,980.9 633.5

2075 -3,436.4 129.8 36.6 9.2 4,083.2 646.8

2076 -3,524.7 128.3 36.0 9.0 4,184.5 659.8

2077 -3,612.1 126.9 35.4 8.9 4,284.9 672.8

2078 -3,698.7 125.5 34.8 8.7 4,384.2 685.6

Totals, 2004-2078 8,298.3 4,698.5 784.4

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report.

1

Negative amounts represented unfunded obligation through the end of the year.

2

Includes redirection of taxation of benefit revenues from HI Trust Fund to the OASDI Trust Fund (provision 9), Office of the Actuary

 which is not included in "Other Changes in OASDI Cash Flow" for unified budget purposes in Table b. Social Security Administration 3

Total change through the year is the accumulation of changes in columns 2 through 4. November 4, 2005
Table 1e--Taxable Payroll Information for the "Bipartisan Retirement Security Act of 2005"

Expected yield scenario

OASDI Taxable Payroll Increase in

(Billions of Current Dollars) Taxable Payroll

Year Proposal Present Law over Present Law

2004 4,522 4,522 0.0%

2005 4,762 4,762 0.0%

2006 5,042 4,999 0.9%

2007 5,329 5,244 1.6%

2008 5,639 5,502 2.5%

2009 5,960 5,770 3.3%

2010 6,294 6,047 4.1%

2011 6,600 6,331 4.3%

2012 6,910 6,614 4.5%

2013 7,227 6,901 4.7%

2014 7,555 7,213 4.7%

2015 7,893 7,534 4.8%

2016 8,244 7,868 4.8%

2017 8,608 8,214 4.8%

2018 8,988 8,575 4.8%

2019 9,376 8,944 4.8%

2020 9,780 9,329 4.8%

2021 10,196 9,724 4.9%

2022 10,627 10,135 4.9%

2023 11,069 10,557 4.9%

2024 11,531 10,997 4.9%

2025 12,009 11,453 4.9%

2026 12,509 11,930 4.9%

2027 13,032 12,428 4.9%

2028 13,575 12,945 4.9%

2029 14,142 13,486 4.9%

2030 14,734 14,050 4.9%

2031 15,353 14,639 4.9%

2032 16,000 15,256 4.9%

2033 16,676 15,899 4.9%

2034 17,381 16,571 4.9%

2035 18,116 17,272 4.9%

2036 18,886 18,006 4.9%

2037 19,690 18,771 4.9%

2038 20,529 19,570 4.9%

2039 21,401 20,401 4.9%

2040 22,311 21,267 4.9%

2041 23,261 22,172 4.9%

2042 24,249 23,112 4.9%

2043 25,278 24,091 4.9%

2044 26,350 25,111 4.9%

2045 27,463 26,170 4.9%

2046 28,620 27,271 4.9%

2047 29,824 28,415 5.0%

2048 31,072 29,603 5.0%

2049 32,368 30,835 5.0%

2050 33,715 32,116 5.0%

2051 35,118 33,450 5.0%

2052 36,576 34,837 5.0%

2053 38,100 36,285 5.0%

2054 39,686 37,793 5.0%

2055 41,333 39,359 5.0%

2056 43,047 40,990 5.0%

2057 44,828 42,682 5.0%

2058 46,684 44,447 5.0%

2059 48,619 46,287 5.0%

2060 50,632 48,202 5.0%

2061 52,726 50,193 5.0%

2062 54,909 52,268 5.1%

2063 57,180 54,426 5.1%

2064 59,545 56,674 5.1%

2065 62,010 59,018 5.1%

2066 64,574 61,454 5.1%

2067 67,248 63,996 5.1%

2068 70,051 66,659 5.1%

2069 72,960 69,423 5.1%

2070 75,988 72,299 5.1%

2071 79,143 75,296 5.1%

2072 82,426 78,414 5.1%

2073 85,837 81,654 5.1%

2074 89,388 85,026 5.1%

2075 93,086 88,538 5.1%

2076 96,935 92,194 5.1%

2077 100,941 95,998 5.1%

2078 105,112 99,958 5.2%

2079 109,442 104,070 5.2%

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report. Office of the Actuary

Social Security Administration

November 4, 2005
Table 2-Trust Fund Operations--Kolbe/Boyd Proposal 

Low yield scenario

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Interest Rate 3.00

Ultimate Net Real IA Accumulation Rate 4.45 IA Participation Rate1 100%

Ultimate Net Real IA Annuitization Rate 3.00

Change in Effective

OASDI OASDI OASDI Specified IA

Cost Income Annual TFR Contribution Contribution General Rev. Contribution

Year Rate Rate2 Balance 1-1-yr Rate Rate Transfers Rate

2004 11.07 12.71 1.64 306 12.40

2005 10.87 12.73 1.86 325 12.40

2006 10.63 10.67 0.04 348 -1.94 10.46 1.94

2007 10.58 10.78 0.20 350 -0.02 10.44 0.02 1.98

2008 10.50 10.80 0.30 353 -0.01 10.43 0.04 2.01

2009 10.53 10.81 0.28 354 0.03 10.45 0.10 2.05

2010 10.54 10.82 0.28 356 -0.01 10.45 0.12 2.07

2011 10.66 10.88 0.22 357 -0.02 10.43 0.13 2.10

2012 10.85 10.99 0.14 355 0.04 10.47 0.20 2.12

2013 10.93 11.06 0.12 357 0.02 10.49 0.24 2.15

2014 11.12 11.15 0.03 356 0.04 10.53 0.29 2.16

2015 11.33 11.22 -0.10 354 0.02 10.55 0.33 2.18

2016 11.54 11.26 -0.28 350 -0.01 10.54 0.33 2.20

2017 11.70 11.30 -0.39 348 -0.01 10.52 0.33 2.21

2018 11.87 11.35 -0.52 344 -0.01 10.51 0.33 2.22

2019 12.05 11.39 -0.65 340 -0.01 10.51 0.33 2.23

2020 12.22 11.45 -0.78 335 -0.01 10.50 0.33 2.23

2021 12.39 11.52 -0.87 329 0.05 10.55 0.39 2.24

2022 12.55 11.53 -1.01 323 -0.01 10.54 0.39 2.25

2023 12.70 11.55 -1.16 316 -0.01 10.54 0.39 2.25

2024 12.86 11.56 -1.30 309 -0.01 10.53 0.39 2.26

2025 13.01 11.58 -1.43 300 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2026 13.14 11.60 -1.55 291 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2027 13.26 11.61 -1.64 282 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2028 13.35 11.63 -1.72 272 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2029 13.42 11.65 -1.78 263 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2030 13.47 11.66 -1.81 253 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2031 13.50 11.67 -1.83 243 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2032 13.52 11.68 -1.84 233 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2033 13.51 11.69 -1.82 224 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2034 13.48 11.70 -1.78 214 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2035 13.43 11.70 -1.73 205 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2036 13.38 11.70 -1.67 196 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2037 13.31 11.71 -1.60 188 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2038 13.23 11.71 -1.52 180 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2039 13.14 11.71 -1.43 173 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2040 13.04 11.71 -1.33 166 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2041 12.94 11.71 -1.23 160 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2042 12.83 11.71 -1.13 154 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2043 12.73 11.71 -1.02 149 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2044 12.62 11.71 -0.91 144 0.00 10.53 0.39 2.26

2045 12.52 11.79 -0.73 141 0.08 10.60 0.47 2.26

2046 12.41 11.78 -0.63 138 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2047 12.31 11.78 -0.53 137 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2048 12.21 11.78 -0.43 136 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2049 12.12 11.78 -0.34 135 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2050 12.04 11.79 -0.25 136 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2051 11.96 11.79 -0.17 137 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2052 11.90 11.79 -0.11 138 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2053 11.84 11.80 -0.04 140 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2054 11.79 11.80 0.01 143 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2055 11.74 11.80 0.06 146 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2056 11.70 11.80 0.10 149 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2057 11.67 11.81 0.14 153 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2058 11.63 11.81 0.18 157 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2059 11.60 11.81 0.21 161 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2060 11.57 11.82 0.24 166 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2061 11.55 11.82 0.27 171 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2062 11.52 11.82 0.30 177 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2063 11.51 11.82 0.32 183 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2064 11.49 11.83 0.34 189 0.00 10.61 0.47 2.26

2065 11.47 11.93 0.47 195 0.10 10.70 0.57 2.26

2066 11.45 11.93 0.48 202 0.00 10.70 0.57 2.26

2067 11.43 11.93 0.50 210 0.00 10.70 0.57 2.26

2068 11.40 11.93 0.53 218 0.00 10.70 0.57 2.26

2069 11.39 11.93 0.55 227 0.00 10.70 0.57 2.26

2070 11.37 11.93 0.56 236 0.00 10.70 0.57 2.26

2071 11.35 11.93 0.58 245 0.00 10.70 0.57 2.26

2072 11.34 11.93 0.59 254 0.00 10.70 0.57 2.26

2073 11.33 11.93 0.61 264 0.00 10.70 0.57 2.26

2074 11.32 11.93 0.61 274 0.00 10.70 0.57 2.26

2075 11.32 11.94 0.62 284 0.00 10.70 0.57 2.26

2076 11.31 11.94 0.62 294 0.00 10.70 0.57 2.26

2077 11.31 11.94 0.63 304 0.00 10.70 0.57 2.26

2078 11.31 11.94 0.63 315 0.00 10.70 0.57 2.26

2079 11.31 11.94 0.63 325 0.00 10.70 0.57 2.26

 Summarized OASDI

Cost Income Actuarial Change in

2004 Rate Rate Balance Actuarial Balance

-2078 12.08 12.26 0.18 2.07

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report. All values are expressed

 as percentages of taxable payroll, except TFR

1

All workers under 55 as of 1/1/2006 are required to invest 3% of earnings up to $10,000 and Office of the Actuary

 2% of earnings over $10,000 (in 2006 dollars, with $10,000 threshold wage-indexed thereafter. Social Security Administration 2

Includes specified transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury. November 4, 2005
Table 2a--Trust Fund Asset Comparison of the "Bipartisan Retirement Security Act of 2005"

Low yield scenario Theoretical Social Security

2

with Borrowing Authority:

Proposal Specified General Fund Transfers Total OASDI Individual Net OASDI TF Assets at End of Year

Annual Contributions Accumulated Trust Fund Account Without GF Transfer = With GF Transfer =

Present Value % of Constant as of End Assets at Assets1

 at Required Under Required Under

Year as of 1-1-2004 Payroll 2004$ of Year End of Year End of Year GDP the Proposal the Proposal

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (Billions of $) Billions of Constant 2004$ Billions of Constant 2004 Dollars

2004 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0 1,684 0 11,544 1,684 1,684

2005 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0 1,840 0 11,911 1,840 1,840

2006 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0 1,907 96 12,246 1,998 1,998

2007 0.7 0.02 0.8 0.8 1,972 199 12,562 2,156 2,157

2008 1.8 0.04 2.1 3.0 2,038 309 12,870 2,315 2,318

2009 4.4 0.10 5.3 8.3 2,106 426 13,171 2,473 2,481

2010 5.4 0.12 6.7 15.2 2,177 551 13,466 2,631 2,646

2011 5.8 0.13 7.3 22.9 2,249 684 13,752 2,790 2,813

2012 8.6 0.20 11.2 34.7 2,319 822 14,024 2,944 2,979

2013 10.3 0.24 13.7 49.4 2,390 967 14,285 3,091 3,140

2014 12.5 0.29 17.2 68.0 2,458 1,119 14,547 3,230 3,298

2015 14.1 0.33 19.9 89.8 2,522 1,276 14,804 3,360 3,450

2016 13.9 0.33 20.2 112.6 2,577 1,439 15,061 3,478 3,591

2017 13.7 0.33 20.5 136.5 2,628 1,608 15,322 3,584 3,720

2018 13.5 0.33 20.8 161.4 2,672 1,783 15,586 3,675 3,837

2019 13.3 0.33 21.2 187.4 2,709 1,963 15,842 3,750 3,937

2020 13.1 0.33 21.5 214.5 2,738 2,148 16,100 3,805 4,020

2021 15.1 0.39 25.5 246.4 2,761 2,338 16,354 3,841 4,087

2022 14.9 0.39 25.8 279.6 2,774 2,532 16,610 3,857 4,136

2023 14.7 0.39 26.2 314.1 2,776 2,731 16,861 3,851 4,165

2024 14.4 0.39 26.5 350.1 2,768 2,934 17,117 3,823 4,173

2025 14.2 0.39 26.9 387.4 2,749 3,141 17,372 3,773 4,160

2026 13.9 0.39 27.2 426.2 2,720 3,351 17,634 3,700 4,126

2027 13.7 0.39 27.6 466.6 2,681 3,565 17,903 3,604 4,071

2028 13.5 0.39 27.9 508.5 2,634 3,782 18,174 3,486 3,994

2029 13.3 0.39 28.3 552.1 2,579 4,002 18,451 3,346 3,898

2030 13.1 0.39 28.7 597.4 2,518 4,225 18,733 3,184 3,781

2031 12.9 0.39 29.1 644.4 2,452 4,450 19,022 3,000 3,645

2032 12.7 0.39 29.5 693.2 2,382 4,678 19,319 2,796 3,489

2033 12.5 0.39 29.9 743.9 2,310 4,908 19,622 2,570 3,314

2034 12.3 0.39 30.3 796.5 2,235 5,140 19,929 2,325 3,122

2035 12.1 0.39 30.7 851.2 2,161 5,374 20,243 2,062 2,913

2036 11.9 0.39 31.2 907.9 2,088 5,609 20,564 1,780 2,688

2037 11.7 0.39 31.6 966.7 2,016 5,845 20,892 1,481 2,448

2038 11.5 0.39 32.1 1,027.8 1,947 6,082 21,226 1,165 2,193

2039 11.3 0.39 32.5 1,091.1 1,882 6,320 21,562 833 1,924

2040 11.2 0.39 33.0 1,156.8 1,822 6,558 21,904 485 1,642

2041 11.0 0.39 33.4 1,225.0 1,767 6,797 22,252 120 1,345

2042 10.8 0.39 33.9 1,295.6 1,719 7,034 22,605 -262 1,034

2043 10.7 0.39 34.4 1,368.9 1,677 7,272 22,961 -662 707

2044 10.5 0.39 34.9 1,444.8 1,642 7,508 23,322 -1,080 365

2045 12.4 0.47 42.4 1,530.5 1,622 7,742 23,687 -1,516 14

2046 12.2 0.47 43.0 1,619.4 1,610 7,975 24,055 -1,972 -353

2047 12.0 0.47 43.6 1,711.6 1,607 8,206 24,426 -2,449 -737

2048 11.8 0.47 44.2 1,807.1 1,613 8,434 24,799 -2,946 -1,139

2049 11.6 0.47 44.7 1,906.1 1,628 8,660 25,174 -3,465 -1,559

2050 11.4 0.47 45.3 2,008.6 1,650 8,882 25,552 -4,008 -2,000

2051 11.2 0.47 45.9 2,114.8 1,682 9,099 25,936 -4,577 -2,462

2052 11.1 0.47 46.5 2,224.8 1,720 9,313 26,324 -5,172 -2,947

2053 10.9 0.47 47.2 2,338.7 1,766 9,522 26,721 -5,795 -3,456

2054 10.7 0.47 47.8 2,456.6 1,820 9,729 27,123 -6,447 -3,990

2055 10.5 0.47 48.4 2,578.7 1,880 9,934 27,528 -7,130 -4,551

2056 10.4 0.47 49.0 2,705.1 1,947 10,136 27,939 -7,845 -5,140

2057 10.2 0.47 49.7 2,836.0 2,020 10,337 28,354 -8,594 -5,758

2058 10.0 0.47 50.3 2,971.4 2,099 10,534 28,775 -9,378 -6,406

2059 9.9 0.47 51.0 3,111.5 2,185 10,730 29,204 -10,196 -7,085

2060 9.7 0.47 51.7 3,256.5 2,277 10,924 29,639 -11,052 -7,795

2061 9.5 0.47 52.3 3,406.6 2,376 11,116 30,078 -11,946 -8,539

2062 9.4 0.47 53.0 3,561.8 2,481 11,307 30,526 -12,880 -9,318

2063 9.2 0.47 53.7 3,722.3 2,592 11,496 30,978 -13,857 -10,134

2064 9.1 0.47 54.4 3,888.4 2,709 11,683 31,438 -14,876 -10,988

2065 10.8 0.57 66.7 4,071.8 2,845 11,870 31,906 -15,940 -11,868

2066 10.6 0.57 67.6 4,261.5 2,989 12,055 32,379 -17,050 -12,789

2067 10.4 0.57 68.5 4,457.8 3,140 12,240 32,861 -18,208 -13,750

2068 10.3 0.57 69.4 4,660.9 3,300 12,424 33,359 -19,414 -14,753

2069 10.1 0.57 70.3 4,871.0 3,467 12,608 33,859 -20,670 -15,799

2070 9.9 0.57 71.2 5,088.4 3,643 12,791 34,366 -21,978 -16,890

2071 9.8 0.57 72.2 5,313.2 3,828 12,975 34,882 -23,340 -18,026

2072 9.6 0.57 73.1 5,545.7 4,021 13,159 35,404 -24,756 -19,210

2073 9.5 0.57 74.0 5,786.1 4,222 13,343 35,931 -26,230 -20,444

2074 9.3 0.57 75.0 6,034.7 4,431 13,528 36,464 -27,762 -21,728

2075 9.2 0.57 76.0 6,291.7 4,648 13,714 37,006 -29,356 -23,065

2076 9.0 0.57 77.0 6,557.4 4,874 13,901 37,555 -31,014 -24,456

2077 8.9 0.57 78.0 6,832.1 5,108 14,089 38,112 -32,736 -25,904

2078 8.7 0.57 79.0 7,116.1 5,350 14,279 38,677 -34,527 -27,410

2079 8.6 0.57 80.0 7,409.6 5,601 14,470 39,245 -36,387 -28,977

Total, 2004-2078 784.4

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report

1

Including annuity assets, assuming all annuitize fully Office of the Actuary 2

Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption that the law Social Security Administration

 is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury November 4, 2005
Table 2b--Unified Budget Effects of the "Bipartisan Retirement Security Act of 2005"

Low yield scenario Change in

Contributions to Other Changes Annual Debt Held Annual

IA by Federal in Unified Budget Unified Budget by Public Unified Budget

Year Government Cash Flow1 Cash Flow (end of year) Balance

(1) (2) (3)=(2)-(1) (4) (5)

(Billions of $, Present Value on 1-1-2004)

2005 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2006 85.7 6.1 -79.6 79.6 -79.6

2007 87.5 8.3 -79.2 158.8 -83.3

2008 89.3 14.4 -74.9 233.7 -83.2

2009 90.8 20.1 -70.7 304.4 -83.0

2010 92.1 25.7 -66.4 370.9 -82.5

2011 92.7 27.7 -65.0 435.9 -84.8

2012 92.9 29.5 -63.4 499.3 -86.7

2013 92.9 36.3 -56.6 556.0 -83.4

2014 92.7 38.4 -54.3 610.2 -84.3

2015 92.3 40.7 -51.6 661.9 -84.8

2016 91.7 43.2 -48.5 710.4 -84.8

2017 91.0 48.5 -42.6 752.9 -81.8

2018 90.2 53.1 -37.1 790.0 -78.9

2019 89.2 57.9 -31.4 821.4 -75.3

2020 88.2 62.7 -25.5 846.8 -71.1

2021 87.1 67.7 -19.4 866.3 -66.5

2022 86.0 72.5 -13.5 879.8 -61.6

2023 84.8 76.9 -7.8 887.6 -56.7

2024 83.6 81.1 -2.5 890.1 -51.8

2025 82.4 85.0 2.6 887.6 -46.9

2026 81.0 88.6 7.6 880.0 -41.7

2027 79.7 92.4 12.7 867.3 -36.2

2028 78.4 95.8 17.3 850.0 -30.9

2029 77.2 99.1 22.0 828.0 -25.3

2030 75.9 102.4 26.5 801.5 -19.5

2031 74.7 105.7 31.0 770.6 -13.6

2032 73.5 108.8 35.3 735.3 -7.5

2033 72.4 111.7 39.3 695.9 -1.5

2034 71.3 114.4 43.1 652.8 4.5

2035 70.1 116.8 46.7 606.1 10.4

2036 69.1 118.8 49.7 556.4 16.0

2037 68.0 120.5 52.5 504.0 21.6

2038 67.0 122.0 55.0 448.9 27.0

2039 65.9 123.4 57.5 391.5 32.5

2040 64.9 124.7 59.7 331.7 38.0

2041 63.9 125.9 62.0 269.7 43.6

2042 62.9 127.2 64.2 205.4 49.3

2043 61.9 128.3 66.4 139.1 54.9

2044 61.0 129.3 68.4 70.7 60.6

2045 60.0 130.3 70.3 0.5 66.3

2046 59.1 131.2 72.1 -71.7 72.1

2047 58.1 132.0 73.9 -145.5 77.8

2048 57.2 132.7 75.5 -221.0 83.5

2049 56.3 133.2 76.9 -297.9 89.2

2050 55.4 133.7 78.3 -376.2 94.9

2051 54.5 134.0 79.6 -455.8 100.5

2052 53.6 134.3 80.8 -536.5 106.1

2053 52.7 134.5 81.8 -618.3 111.6

2054 51.8 134.5 82.7 -701.0 117.0

2055 51.0 134.4 83.4 -784.4 122.4

2056 50.2 134.3 84.1 -868.5 127.7

2057 49.3 134.0 84.6 -953.2 132.9

2058 48.5 133.5 85.0 -1,038.2 138.0

2059 47.7 133.0 85.3 -1,123.5 143.0

2060 46.9 132.4 85.5 -1,209.0 147.9

2061 46.2 131.8 85.6 -1,294.6 152.8

2062 45.4 131.1 85.7 -1,380.3 157.6

2063 44.7 130.4 85.8 -1,466.1 162.5

2064 43.9 129.7 85.8 -1,551.8 167.3

2065 43.2 128.9 85.7 -1,637.5 171.9

2066 42.5 128.1 85.6 -1,723.2 176.6

2067 41.8 127.3 85.5 -1,808.7 181.3

2068 41.1 126.4 85.3 -1,894.0 185.8

2069 40.4 125.4 85.0 -1,979.0 190.3

2070 39.8 124.4 84.6 -2,063.6 194.6

2071 39.1 123.3 84.2 -2,147.8 198.9

2072 38.5 122.2 83.7 -2,231.5 203.0

2073 37.8 121.0 83.1 -2,314.7 207.2

2074 37.2 119.8 82.6 -2,397.2 211.2

2075 36.6 118.5 81.9 -2,479.2 215.2

2076 36.0 117.3 81.3 -2,560.5 219.1

2077 35.4 116.0 80.6 -2,641.1 222.9

2078 34.8 114.7 79.9 -2,721.0 226.7

2079 34.2 113.4 79.2 -2,800.2 230.4

Total, 2004-2078 4,698.5 7,419.5

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report. Office of the Actuary 1

Excludes intragovernmental transfers from provisions 4 and 9. Social Security Administration

November 4, 2005
Table 2b.c--Unified Budget Effects of the "Bipartisan Retirement Security Act of 2005"

Low yield scenario

Change in

Contributions to Other Changes Annual Debt Held Annual

IA by Federal in Unified Budget Unified Budget by Public Unified Budget

Year Government Cash Flow1 Cash Flow (end of year) Balance

(1) (2) (3)=(2)-(1) (4) (5)

(Billions of Constant 2004$)

2005 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2006 94.7 6.7 -88.0 89.3 -90.4

2007 99.6 9.4 -90.1 183.0 -97.3

2008 104.3 16.8 -87.5 276.4 -99.8

2009 108.9 24.1 -84.8 369.6 -102.1

2010 113.4 31.6 -81.8 462.4 -104.3

2011 117.2 35.0 -82.2 558.5 -110.1

2012 120.6 38.3 -82.4 657.5 -115.8

2013 124.0 48.4 -75.6 752.5 -114.5

2014 127.2 52.7 -74.5 849.3 -119.0

2015 130.3 57.4 -72.9 947.7 -123.2

2016 133.2 62.8 -70.5 1,046.8 -126.7

2017 136.1 72.5 -63.6 1,142.3 -125.8

2018 138.9 81.8 -57.1 1,234.5 -125.0

2019 141.5 91.8 -49.7 1,322.0 -122.8

2020 144.0 102.4 -41.6 1,403.9 -119.6

2021 146.5 113.8 -32.7 1,479.3 -115.1

2022 149.0 125.6 -23.4 1,547.4 -109.9

2023 151.3 137.3 -14.0 1,608.0 -104.2

2024 153.7 149.1 -4.6 1,661.0 -98.1

2025 156.0 160.9 4.9 1,705.8 -91.4

2026 158.1 172.9 14.8 1,742.0 -83.8

2027 160.2 185.6 25.4 1,768.4 -74.9

2028 162.3 198.2 35.9 1,785.1 -65.7

2029 164.5 211.3 46.8 1,791.1 -55.4

2030 166.7 224.9 58.2 1,785.8 -44.1

2031 169.0 239.0 70.0 1,768.3 -31.6

2032 171.3 253.4 82.2 1,738.0 -18.1

2033 173.7 268.0 94.4 1,694.4 -3.7

2034 176.1 282.6 106.6 1,637.0 11.3

2035 178.5 297.3 118.8 1,565.6 27.2

2036 181.0 311.3 130.3 1,480.3 43.2

2037 183.6 325.3 141.7 1,380.9 59.9

2038 186.2 339.3 153.1 1,267.0 77.4

2039 188.8 353.4 164.6 1,138.0 95.8

2040 191.5 367.8 176.3 993.2 115.3

2041 194.2 382.7 188.5 831.7 136.3

2042 196.9 398.0 201.1 652.6 158.6

2043 199.7 413.6 213.9 455.1 182.3

2044 202.5 429.5 227.0 238.4 207.2

2045 205.3 445.6 240.3 1.6 233.5

2046 208.1 462.2 254.1 -256.2 261.3

2047 211.0 478.9 268.0 -535.8 290.6

2048 213.8 495.8 282.0 -838.1 321.3

2049 216.7 512.8 296.2 -1,163.8 353.4

2050 219.5 530.0 310.5 -1,513.9 387.1

2051 222.4 547.4 325.0 -1,889.1 422.3

2052 225.4 565.0 339.7 -2,290.6 459.2

2053 228.3 582.7 354.4 -2,718.9 497.6

2054 231.4 600.3 369.0 -3,174.9 537.4

2055 234.4 618.0 383.6 -3,659.5 578.9

2056 237.5 635.6 398.1 -4,173.3 622.1

2057 240.6 653.2 412.7 -4,717.3 666.8

2058 243.7 670.8 427.1 -5,292.3 713.2

2059 246.9 688.2 441.3 -5,898.9 761.2

2060 250.1 705.6 455.5 -6,538.1 811.0

2061 253.4 723.2 469.9 -7,211.1 862.9

2062 256.7 741.2 484.5 -7,919.2 917.0

2063 260.0 759.5 499.5 -8,663.8 973.6

2064 263.4 777.8 514.5 -9,445.8 1,032.2

2065 266.8 796.3 529.5 -10,266.5 1,093.0

2066 270.3 815.1 544.8 -11,127.4 1,156.4

2067 273.8 834.1 560.3 -12,029.9 1,222.4

2068 277.4 853.4 575.9 -12,975.4 1,290.8

2069 281.1 872.1 591.1 -13,964.5 1,361.2

2070 284.8 890.8 606.1 -14,998.5 1,434.0

2071 288.5 909.5 621.0 -16,078.7 1,509.4

2072 292.3 928.1 635.9 -17,206.4 1,587.4

2073 296.1 946.8 650.7 -18,383.0 1,668.1

2074 299.9 965.4 665.5 -19,609.8 1,751.6

2075 303.8 984.1 680.3 -20,888.5 1,838.0

2076 307.8 1002.9 695.1 -22,220.6 1,927.5

2077 311.8 1021.8 710.0 -23,607.8 2,020.1

2078 315.8 1040.8 725.0 -25,051.8 2,116.0

2079 319.9 1059.9 740.0 -26,554.3 2,215.3

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report. Office of the Actuary 1

Excludes intragovernmental transfers from provisions 4 and 9. Social Security Administration

November 4, 2005
Low yield scenario 

Estimate for Modified Present Law

Estimate for Proposal Theoretical Social Security with PAYGO Transfers

Net Amount of Cash Flow from the OASDI Net Amount of Cash Flow from the OASDI

Trust Funds to the General Fund of the Trust Funds to the General Fund of the

Treasury During the Year1 Treasury During the Year1

Percent Billions of Dollars Percent Billions of Dollars

Year of payroll Current $ 1/1/2004 PV Constant 2004$ of payroll Current $ 1/1/2004 PV Constant 2004$

2004 1.4 65 63 65 1.4 65 63 65

2005 1.9 89 82 87 1.9 89 82 87

2006 0.0 1 1 1 2.0 97 85 94

2007 0.2 10 8 9 2.0 105 87 99

2008 0.2 14 11 12 2.0 109 86 100

2009 0.2 10 7 9 1.8 105 78 93

2010 0.1 9 6 8 1.7 103 73 89

2011 0.1 5 4 5 1.6 101 67 85

2012 -0.1 -5 -3 -4 1.4 91 58 75

2013 -0.1 -9 -6 -7 1.2 79 47 63

2014 -0.3 -21 -12 -17 0.9 65 37 50

2015 -0.5 -36 -19 -27 0.6 48 25 36

2016 -0.6 -52 -26 -38 0.4 27 14 20

2017 -0.7 -64 -31 -46 0.1 4 2 3

2018 -0.9 -78 -35 -54 -0.2 -22 -10 -15

2019 -1.0 -94 -40 -63 -0.6 -51 -22 -35

2020 -1.1 -110 -44 -73 -0.9 -84 -34 -55

2021 -1.3 -130 -50 -83 -1.2 -119 -45 -76

2022 -1.4 -151 -54 -94 -1.5 -155 -56 -97

2023 -1.6 -173 -59 -105 -1.8 -195 -66 -118

2024 -1.7 -196 -63 -116 -2.1 -236 -76 -139

2025 -1.8 -220 -67 -126 -2.4 -279 -85 -160

2026 -2.0 -244 -70 -136 -2.7 -324 -93 -181

2027 -2.0 -267 -72 -145 -3.0 -370 -100 -201

2028 -2.1 -289 -74 -153 -3.2 -416 -106 -220

2029 -2.2 -308 -74 -158 -3.4 -463 -112 -238

2030 -2.2 -327 -74 -163 -3.6 -510 -116 -255

2031 -2.2 -343 -74 -167 -3.8 -558 -120 -271

2032 -2.2 -358 -73 -169 -4.0 -606 -123 -287

2033 -2.2 -371 -71 -170 -4.1 -653 -125 -300

2034 -2.2 -380 -69 -170 -4.2 -699 -127 -313

2035 -2.1 -387 -66 -168 -4.3 -744 -127 -324

2036 -2.1 -392 -63 -166 -4.4 -788 -127 -334

2037 -2.0 -395 -60 -163 -4.4 -831 -127 -343

2038 -1.9 -395 -57 -158 -4.4 -873 -126 -350

2039 -1.8 -392 -53 -153 -4.5 -915 -124 -357

2040 -1.7 -387 -50 -147 -4.5 -956 -123 -363

2041 -1.6 -380 -46 -140 -4.5 -1,000 -121 -369

2042 -1.5 -371 -43 -133 -4.5 -1,045 -120 -375

2043 -1.4 -360 -39 -126 -4.5 -1,091 -118 -381

2044 -1.3 -347 -36 -118 -4.5 -1,139 -116 -387

2045 -1.2 -333 -32 -110 -4.5 -1,189 -115 -393

2046 -1.1 -317 -29 -102 -4.5 -1,241 -113 -399

2047 -1.0 -300 -26 -94 -4.6 -1,297 -112 -405

2048 -0.9 -282 -23 -86 -4.6 -1,355 -110 -412

2049 -0.8 -264 -20 -78 -4.6 -1,417 -109 -419

2050 -0.7 -247 -18 -71 -4.6 -1,483 -108 -427

2051 -0.7 -230 -16 -64 -4.6 -1,555 -107 -435

2052 -0.6 -214 -14 -58 -4.7 -1,634 -106 -445

2053 -0.5 -199 -12 -53 -4.7 -1,717 -105 -455

2054 -0.5 -186 -11 -48 -4.8 -1,805 -104 -465

2055 -0.4 -174 -9 -44 -4.8 -1,899 -104 -476

2056 -0.4 -162 -8 -40 -4.9 -1,999 -103 -487

2057 -0.3 -152 -7 -36 -4.9 -2,104 -102 -499

2058 -0.3 -141 -6 -33 -5.0 -2,214 -102 -511

2059 -0.3 -130 -6 -29 -5.0 -2,328 -101 -522

2060 -0.2 -119 -5 -26 -5.1 -2,447 -100 -534

2061 -0.2 -109 -4 -23 -5.1 -2,574 -100 -547

2062 -0.2 -101 -4 -21 -5.2 -2,709 -99 -560

2063 -0.2 -94 -3 -19 -5.2 -2,854 -98 -574

2064 -0.1 -85 -3 -17 -5.3 -3,003 -98 -587

2065 -0.1 -74 -2 -14 -5.3 -3,157 -97 -600

2066 -0.1 -62 -2 -12 -5.4 -3,319 -96 -614

2067 -0.1 -50 -1 -9 -5.4 -3,489 -96 -628

2068 -0.1 -36 -1 -6 -5.5 -3,665 -95 -641

2069 0.0 -23 -1 -4 -5.5 -3,847 -94 -655

2070 0.0 -11 0 -2 -5.6 -4,037 -93 -669

2071 0.0 2 0 0 -5.6 -4,235 -92 -682

2072 0.0 13 0 2 -5.7 -4,442 -92 -696

2073 0.0 23 0 3 -5.7 -4,660 -91 -710

2074 0.0 31 1 5 -5.7 -4,888 -90 -725

2075 0.0 38 1 6 -5.8 -5,127 -89 -740

2076 0.0 44 1 6 -5.8 -5,377 -88 -755

2077 0.0 49 1 7 -5.9 -5,640 -87 -770

2078 0.1 53 1 7 -5.9 -5,915 -87 -785

2079 0.0 54 1 7 -5.9 -6,204 -86 -801

Total, 2004-78 -1,751 -5,225

Based on intermediate assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report. 1

Trust Funds are assumed to borrow from the General Fund of the Treasury. Equals net Office of the Actuary

 investment in special Treasury Bonds by the Trust Funds less the Amount of General Fund Social Security Administration

 transfers specified in the proposal or in the theoretical plan (PAYGO transfers). November 4, 2005

Table 2c--OASDI Cash Flow to General Fund--Proposal vs Theoretical OASDI 
Table 2d--Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Assets/Unfunded Obligation for the

"Bipartisan Retirement Security Act of 2005"

Low yield scenario

Present-Law OASDI

Trust Fund Assets Basic Amount Specified Proposal OASDI

or If Negative, Changes Contributed General Total Change Trust Fund Assets /

Unfunded Obligation in OASDI to IA by Fund Through Unfunded Obligation

Year Through EOY1 Cash Flow2 Fed. Govt. Transfers End of Year3 Through EOY

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) = (1) + (5)

(Billions of $, Present Value as of 1-1-04)

2005 1,674.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,674.6

2006 1,759.0 6.1 85.7 0.0 -79.6 1,679.4

2007 1,845.5 8.3 87.5 0.7 -158.1 1,687.5

2008 1,930.8 14.4 89.3 1.8 -231.2 1,699.6

2009 2,008.4 20.1 90.8 4.4 -297.5 1,711.0

2010 2,080.8 25.7 92.1 5.4 -358.5 1,722.3

2011 2,148.0 28.9 92.7 5.8 -416.5 1,731.5

2012 2,205.6 32.1 92.9 8.6 -468.7 1,736.9

2013 2,252.4 40.4 92.9 10.3 -510.9 1,741.5

2014 2,289.0 44.1 92.7 12.5 -547.0 1,742.0

2015 2,314.3 47.8 92.3 14.1 -577.4 1,736.9

2016 2,327.9 52.0 91.7 13.9 -603.2 1,724.7

2017 2,329.7 58.8 91.0 13.7 -621.7 1,707.9

2018 2,319.7 65.1 90.2 13.5 -633.3 1,686.3

2019 2,297.6 71.4 89.2 13.3 -637.8 1,659.8

2020 2,263.7 77.9 88.2 13.1 -635.0 1,628.7

2021 2,218.5 82.9 87.1 15.1 -624.0 1,594.4

2022 2,162.6 87.8 86.0 14.9 -607.3 1,555.2

2023 2,096.4 92.3 84.8 14.7 -585.1 1,511.3

2024 2,020.7 96.5 83.6 14.4 -557.8 1,462.9

2025 1,936.1 100.4 82.4 14.2 -525.6 1,410.5

2026 1,843.3 104.1 81.0 13.9 -488.5 1,354.8

2027 1,743.3 107.9 79.7 13.7 -446.7 1,296.6

2028 1,637.0 111.2 78.4 13.5 -400.4 1,236.6

2029 1,525.4 114.5 77.2 13.3 -349.7 1,175.7

2030 1,409.4 117.8 75.9 13.1 -294.8 1,114.6

2031 1,289.5 120.9 74.7 12.9 -235.7 1,053.8

2032 1,166.5 124.0 73.5 12.7 -172.7 993.8

2033 1,041.2 126.7 72.4 12.5 -105.9 935.4

2034 914.6 129.2 71.3 12.3 -35.6 878.9

2035 787.2 131.5 70.1 12.1 37.8 825.0

2036 659.9 133.2 69.1 11.9 113.8 773.7

2037 533.0 134.7 68.0 11.7 192.3 725.3

2038 407.2 136.1 67.0 11.5 272.9 680.1

2039 282.7 137.2 65.9 11.3 355.5 638.2

2040 159.8 138.3 64.9 11.2 440.1 599.8

2041 38.4 139.3 63.9 11.0 526.5 564.9

2042 -81.4 140.3 62.9 10.8 614.7 533.4

2043 -199.5 141.2 61.9 10.7 704.7 505.2

2044 -316.0 142.0 61.0 10.5 796.3 480.2

2045 -430.8 142.8 60.0 12.4 891.4 460.6

2046 -544.1 143.5 59.1 12.2 988.0 444.0

2047 -655.8 144.1 58.1 12.0 1,086.0 430.2

2048 -766.0 144.6 57.2 11.8 1,185.2 419.2

2049 -874.8 144.9 56.3 11.6 1,285.4 410.6

2050 -982.4 145.2 55.4 11.4 1,386.7 404.3

2051 -1,089.0 145.4 54.5 11.2 1,488.9 399.9

2052 -1,194.8 145.5 53.6 11.1 1,591.9 397.1

2053 -1,299.7 145.5 52.7 10.9 1,695.6 395.9

2054 -1,403.9 145.4 51.8 10.7 1,799.9 396.0

2055 -1,507.4 145.2 51.0 10.5 1,904.6 397.2

2056 -1,610.3 144.8 50.2 10.4 2,009.6 399.3

2057 -1,712.7 144.4 49.3 10.2 2,114.9 402.2

2058 -1,814.4 143.8 48.5 10.0 2,220.2 405.8

2059 -1,915.3 143.2 47.7 9.9 2,325.5 410.1

2060 -2,015.6 142.4 46.9 9.7 2,430.6 415.0

2061 -2,115.1 141.6 46.2 9.5 2,535.6 420.5

2062 -2,214.1 140.8 45.4 9.4 2,640.4 426.2

2063 -2,312.6 140.0 44.7 9.2 2,744.9 432.3

2064 -2,410.5 139.1 43.9 9.1 2,849.2 438.7

2065 -2,507.7 138.2 43.2 10.8 2,955.0 447.3

2066 -2,604.1 137.2 42.5 10.6 3,060.3 456.2

2067 -2,699.9 136.3 41.8 10.4 3,165.3 465.3

2068 -2,794.9 135.3 41.1 10.3 3,269.7 474.8

2069 -2,889.1 134.1 40.4 10.1 3,373.5 484.4

2070 -2,982.5 133.0 39.8 9.9 3,476.7 494.2

2071 -3,075.0 131.7 39.1 9.8 3,579.1 504.1

2072 -3,166.6 130.4 38.5 9.6 3,680.6 514.0

2073 -3,257.4 129.1 37.8 9.5 3,781.4 524.0

2074 -3,347.3 127.8 37.2 9.3 3,881.3 534.0

2075 -3,436.4 126.4 36.6 9.2 3,980.3 543.8

2076 -3,524.7 125.0 36.0 9.0 4,078.3 553.6

2077 -3,612.1 123.6 35.4 8.9 4,175.4 563.3

2078 -3,698.7 122.2 34.8 8.7 4,271.5 572.9

Totals, 2004-2078 8,185.7 4,698.5 784.4

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report.

1

Negative amounts represented unfunded obligation through the end of the year.

2

Includes redirection of taxation of benefit revenues from HI Trust Fund to the OASDI Trust Fund (provision 9), Office of the Actuary

 which is not included in "Other Changes in OASDI Cash Flow" for unified budget purposes in Table b. Social Security Administration 3

Total change through the year is the accumulation of changes in columns 2 through 4. November 4, 2005
Table 2e--Taxable Payroll Information for the "Bipartisan Retirement Security Act of 2005"

Low yield scenario

OASDI Taxable Payroll Increase in

(Billions of Current Dollars) Taxable Payroll

Year Proposal Present Law over Present Law

2004 4,522 4,522 0.0%

2005 4,762 4,762 0.0%

2006 5,042 4,999 0.9%

2007 5,329 5,244 1.6%

2008 5,639 5,502 2.5%

2009 5,960 5,770 3.3%

2010 6,294 6,047 4.1%

2011 6,600 6,331 4.3%

2012 6,910 6,614 4.5%

2013 7,227 6,901 4.7%

2014 7,555 7,213 4.7%

2015 7,893 7,534 4.8%

2016 8,244 7,868 4.8%

2017 8,608 8,214 4.8%

2018 8,988 8,575 4.8%

2019 9,376 8,944 4.8%

2020 9,780 9,329 4.8%

2021 10,196 9,724 4.9%

2022 10,627 10,135 4.9%

2023 11,069 10,557 4.9%

2024 11,531 10,997 4.9%

2025 12,009 11,453 4.9%

2026 12,509 11,930 4.9%

2027 13,032 12,428 4.9%

2028 13,575 12,945 4.9%

2029 14,142 13,486 4.9%

2030 14,734 14,050 4.9%

2031 15,353 14,639 4.9%

2032 16,000 15,256 4.9%

2033 16,676 15,899 4.9%

2034 17,381 16,571 4.9%

2035 18,116 17,272 4.9%

2036 18,886 18,006 4.9%

2037 19,690 18,771 4.9%

2038 20,529 19,570 4.9%

2039 21,401 20,401 4.9%

2040 22,311 21,267 4.9%

2041 23,261 22,172 4.9%

2042 24,249 23,112 4.9%

2043 25,278 24,091 4.9%

2044 26,350 25,111 4.9%

2045 27,463 26,170 4.9%

2046 28,620 27,271 4.9%

2047 29,824 28,415 5.0%

2048 31,072 29,603 5.0%

2049 32,368 30,835 5.0%

2050 33,715 32,116 5.0%

2051 35,118 33,450 5.0%

2052 36,576 34,837 5.0%

2053 38,100 36,285 5.0%

2054 39,686 37,793 5.0%

2055 41,333 39,359 5.0%

2056 43,047 40,990 5.0%

2057 44,828 42,682 5.0%

2058 46,684 44,447 5.0%

2059 48,619 46,287 5.0%

2060 50,632 48,202 5.0%

2061 52,726 50,193 5.0%

2062 54,909 52,268 5.1%

2063 57,180 54,426 5.1%

2064 59,545 56,674 5.1%

2065 62,010 59,018 5.1%

2066 64,574 61,454 5.1%

2067 67,248 63,996 5.1%

2068 70,051 66,659 5.1%

2069 72,960 69,423 5.1%

2070 75,988 72,299 5.1%

2071 79,143 75,296 5.1%

2072 82,426 78,414 5.1%

2073 85,837 81,654 5.1%

2074 89,388 85,026 5.1%

2075 93,086 88,538 5.1%

2076 96,935 92,194 5.1%

2077 100,941 95,998 5.1%

2078 105,112 99,958 5.2%

2079 109,442 104,070 5.2%

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report. Office of the Actuary

Social Security Administration

November 4, 2005