SOCIAL SECURITY

MEMORANDUM 

Date: May 21, 2008 Refer To: TCA

To: Representative Paul Ryan 

From: Stephen C. Goss 

Chief Actuary 

Subject: Estimated Financial Effects of the “Social Security Personal Savings Guarantee and Prosperity 

Act of 2008”--INFORMATION 

This memorandum provides estimates of the financial effects of the plan you have developed 

for modifying the basic benefit and financing provisions of the Social Security program and 

adding a voluntary personal savings account. Included is a description of the plan reflecting 

the intent expressed by you and Clete Willems of your staff. The estimates presented in this 

memorandum reflect the extensive efforts of many in the Office of the Chief Actuary, but 

particularly those of Alice Wade and Chris Chaplain. Certain aspects of the plan that do not 

directly affect Social Security financing but are intended to affect other portions of the 

Federal budget are not addressed in this memorandum. 

This plan would modify the basic benefit provisions of Social Security by 

(1) Altering the primary insurance benefit formula with progressive price indexing,

(2) Providing a low-earner benefit enhancement for workers with long careers at low

earnings levels, and

(3) Indexing the normal retirement age for increases in life expectancy.

The plan would provide additional revenue through 

(1) Applying the OASDI payroll tax to the total premium cost of employer provided

health insurance and

(2) General Revenue transfers as needed to assure trust fund solvency.

In addition, the plan would establish voluntary, progressive individual accounts starting in 

2011 for workers who are under age 55 on January 1, 2009 and would provide for a reduction 

in the basic Social Security retirement and aged survivor benefits for those who participate. 

All workers participating in the voluntary account at any time would be guaranteed that the 

total benefits available from the combination of the OASDI program basic benefits (as 

reduced for account participation) and their personal account would be at least equal to the 

OASDI scheduled benefits reflecting only the basic provisions of this plan, regardless of the 

investment option and portfolio allocation they choose. Those who never participate in the 

personal account option would be provided scheduled benefits as modified under the basic 

provisions of this plan. 
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Personal savings account (PSA) assets would be invested by individual workers through a 

central administrative authority operated by the Personal Social Security Savings Board 

(PSSSB), with a default lifecycle fund that is expected to be about equivalent to a lifetime 

portfolio allocation of 65 percent in broad indexed equity funds and 35 percent in broad 

indexed corporate bond funds. Annuitization of the portion of the PSA accumulation 

sufficient to assure that total payments equal scheduled OASDI basic benefits would be 

required at retirement. PSA contributions would be redirected from the OASDI Trust Funds. 

The ability of the trust funds to meet benefit obligations would be maintained through 

statutory transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury as may be needed to assure that 

trust fund assets do not fall below the level of annual expenditures for the OASDI program. 

Under the plan specifications described below the Social Security program would be expected 

to be solvent and to meet its benefit obligations throughout the long-range period 2008 

through 2082. The long-range OASDI actuarial deficit of 1.70 percent of payroll and the 

OASDI long-range unfunded obligation of $4.3 trillion in present value would be eliminated. 

In addition, trust fund assets expressed as a percentage of annual program cost are projected 

to be rising at the end of the 75-year period. Thus, the proposal meets the long-range criteria 

for sustainable solvency and would be expected to remain solvent for the foreseeable future. 

General Fund transfers are, however, expected to be needed under the plan in years 2032 

through 2063, totaling $4.1 trillion in present discounted value. All estimates are based on the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2008 Trustees Report plus additional assumptions described 

below. 

Estimates are provided on two different perspectives regarding the return on investments in 

the individual accounts. Participation in the PSA is assumed to be 100 percent for all eligible 

individuals. Summary descriptions of the provisions and estimates of their effects on the 

OASDI actuarial balance and the 75th year annual balance are provided in Tables A1 and A2. 

More detailed estimates are provided in Tables 1 using the long-term average expected returns 

on equities and corporate bonds for the future. Similar detailed estimates are provided in 

Tables 2 from the perspective of a lower yield on these investments equivalent to a riskadjusted basis where all investments are assumed to yield the expected return on long-term 

Treasury Bonds. The latter perspective results principally in a higher cost for the guaranteed 

total benefit level for account participants and thus larger General Fund transfers over the 

course of the long-range 75-year period. 

Plan Specification 

1. Progressive Price Indexing 

The basic monthly benefit formula used under the OASDI program, called the primary 

insurance amount (PIA) formula, would be made more progressive through a provision 

referred to as progressive price indexing. The current PIA formula results in benefits across 

generations that grow at the rate of average wage growth. The effect of the provision would 

be to reduce benefit growth across generations for workers with career earnings at or above 

the maximum taxable amount to the rate of growth in the consumer price index (CPI), with 

lesser reductions in benefit growth across generations for workers with lower earnings, and no 
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alteration in benefit growth across generations for about the lowest 30 percent of career 

earners. 

Under current law, the PIA for an individual is computed by summing the following: 

1. The multiplication of a benefit factor of 90 percent and the individual’s average 

indexed monthly earnings (AIME) up to a specified level (referred to as the first bend 

point), 

2. The multiplication of a benefit factor of 32 percent and the amount of AIME above the 

first bend point and below the second specified bend point, and 

3. The multiplication of a benefit factor of 15 percent to the amount of AIME above the 

second bend point. 

For individuals becoming eligible for benefits in 2008, the bend points are set at $711 and 

$4,288. 

For this provision, a new bend point would be set at a level equal to the first bend point plus 

28.6 percent of the difference between the current two bend points (this would be $1,734 in 

2008). This new bend point is specified at about the level where 30 percent of new retired 

workers will have an AIME below this level and 70 percent will have an AIME above this 

level. 

Beginning with workers becoming eligible for benefits in 2016, the two benefit factors (32 

and 15) applicable above the new bend point would be reduced proportionately each year 

sufficient to make the total benefit for the career maximum earner grow across generations at 

the rate of CPI growth. This would result in progressively smaller reductions in benefit 

growth across generations for those earning just less than the career maximum earner, down 

to the level at the 30th percentile of career-average earners, below which level the current 

benefit formula would be unaltered. 

This alteration would apply for newly entitled beneficiaries to retirement and aged survivor 

benefits. It would not apply for survivor benefits to children or a surviving spouse entitled 

based on having a qualifying child in care. This reduction would also not apply to benefits 

payable from the Disability Insurance Trust Fund. However, this reduction would apply on a 

proportional basis to disabled worker beneficiaries upon their conversion to retired worker 

status at the attainment of their NRA. The proportional reduction would be determined on the 

basis of the proportion of the years between ages 22 and 62 that the individual was not 

entitled for disabled worker benefits. If, for example, the worker had been entitled for 

disabled worker benefits starting at age 52, then 75 percent of the full reduction for this 

provision would apply starting at the attainment of NRA. 

The effect of this provision taken alone would be to reduce the size of the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 1.13 percent of taxable payroll. 
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2. Low Earner Benefit Enhancement 

This provision is designed to enhance the PIA level for long-career workers with relatively 

low average earnings. Specifically, the PIA for a worker with 30 years of earnings at an 

average wage-indexed level equivalent to the full-time annual minimum wage for 2009 would 

receive an increase in the PIA sufficient to yield an adjusted PIA equal to 120 percent of the 

Federal poverty level for an aged individual. This benefit enhancement would take full effect 

for OASDI workers newly eligible for benefits in 2025 and later, and would be phased in for 

workers newly eligible for benefits in 2016 through 2025. The percentage increase in PIA 

provided to a worker with fewer than 30 years of covered earnings would be reduced linearly, 

reaching no enhancement for the worker with 20 or fewer years of earnings. The year-ofwork requirements above would be “scaled” to the length of the elapsed period from age 22 to 

benefit eligibility for workers who become disabled or die before reaching age 62. In 

addition, the percentage increase in PIA would be reduced proportionally for workers with 

higher AIME, reaching a zero increase for the worker with an AIME equal to twice the level 

of a 35-year steady full-time minimum wage earner. 

All calculations for future enhancements would be made assuming that the minimum wage 

would grow by the average wage index after 2009 and that the Federal poverty level would 

grow by the rate of growth in the CPI. The effect of this provision taken alone would be to 

increase the size of the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit by 0.04 percent of taxable payroll. 

3. Indexing the Normal Retirement Age 

Under current law, the NRA will increase starting for individuals reaching age 62 in 2017, by 

2 months each year, reaching an NRA of 67 for those attaining 62 in 2022 and later. This 

provision would start and end this transition one year earlier, reaching an NRA of 67 for those 

attaining age 62 in 2021. 

In addition, after 2021, this provision would raise the NRA at the rate necessary to maintain 

the ratio of life expectancy at NRA to the difference between the NRA and 20. Under the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2008 Trustees Report it is expected that this provision would 

result in an increase of one month in the NRA about every 2 years. 

 In practice, due to the time needed to collect and compute final mortality data, the NRA 

index would be produced based on mortality rates and life expectancies from period life tables 

produced by the Office of the Chief Actuary at the Social Security Administration with a 3-

year lag. For example, the increase in NRA for 2022 over the level used for 2021 would be 

computed using the ratio described above for 2019 in comparison with the ratio for 2018. 

The effect of this provision taken alone would be to reduce the size of the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.38 percent of taxable payroll. 
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4. Payroll Tax Coverage of Employer Provided Group Health Insurance 

Under current law the cost of employer provided group health insurance is not taxable for 

income tax or payroll tax purposes. This provision would make such costs taxable for OASDI 

payroll tax purposes starting in 2010. Specifically, any cost toward such group health 

insurance borne by employees would cease to be deductible, and the cost borne by employers 

would now be allocated to employees as if it had been wages, for the purpose of payroll tax 

(and later, benefit) calculations. Both employee and employer OASDI payroll taxes would be 

affected by this proposal. 

The effect of this provision taken alone would be to reduce the size of the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 1.20 percent of taxable payroll. 

5a. Personal Savings Account Contributions and Accumulation 

Starting in 2011, all workers who reach their 55th birthday on January 1, 2009 or later will 

have the option to enroll in the personal savings account (PSA) plan. Enrollees with earnings 

in OASDI (Social Security) covered employment will have a portion of their payroll tax 

contribution (12.4 percent of taxable earnings in total) redirected from the OASDI Trust 

Funds to an individual account. The percentage of taxable earnings to be redirected in years 

2011 through 2020 will be 2 percent of the first $10,000 of covered earnings for the year, plus 

1 percent of earnings in excess of $10,000 up to the OASDI taxable maximum amount (which 

is $102,000 for 2008). The $10,000 threshold would be indexed by increases in the SSA 

national Average Wage Index (AWI) for years after 2011. For years 2021 through 2030, the 

percentages for contributions redirected to the PSA would be 4 percent up to the threshold and 

2 percent above it. For the period 2031 through 2040 the percentages would be further 

increased to 6 and 3 percent. Finally, for earnings in 2041 and later, the size of the account 

contribution will be 8 percent of taxable earnings up to the indexed threshold and 4 percent 

over that level. The progressive scale for IA contributions redirected from the OASDI Trust 

Funds is estimated to amount to about 5.12 percentage points of the 12.4 percent payroll tax 

rate on average after 2040. 

All individuals will be allowed to voluntarily enroll or disenroll from the individual account 

plan at any time during their working years. However, any amounts redirected to the account 

in earlier years would remain in the account until distribution as described below. 

While participation in the PSA plan would be optional, and disenrollment allowed, the nature 

of the plan would provide a high likelihood for most workers that available retirement 

benefits will be more if enrollment is maintained. Total monthly retirement benefits for each 

worker who maintains enrollment throughout the period of eligibility would be guaranteed to 

be at least as large as benefits scheduled under Social Security as modified by the basic 

provisions of this plan. In addition, personal account distributions are tax free, unlike Social 

Security benefits. Thus, participation is assumed to be universal for estimates presented in 

this memorandum. 
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PSA contributions directed to the PSA of a worker based on a year’s earnings are not 

determinable until earnings are reported to and tabulated by the Social Security 

Administration. Because this reporting is made by employers on an annual basis, after the 

end of the calendar year, amounts for individual workers are not determinable for somewhat 

over a year, on average, after the date on which earnings are paid. Under the proposal, PSA 

contributions during this initial period would be held in the Tier I fund and would be invested 

in long-term Treasury bonds, or similar securities. PSA contributions would be credited to 

the individual personal savings accounts as soon as current reporting permits. 

Under the plan, personal savings account (PSA) assets, once credited on an individual basis, 

would be automatically invested in the Tier II fund through a central administrative authority 

that would maintain all records of individual transactions and balances. Participants would be 

offered the following six investment options: the default lifecycle fund, a government 

securities fund, a fixed income fund, a broad representative stock index fund, a small cap 

stock index fund, and an international stock index fund. The Personal Social Security Savings 

Board (PSSSB) would group the assets of individuals for the purpose of transactions with 

private investment firms. Upon achieving a total PSA balance equivalent to $25,000 in 2009 

(CPI-indexed thereafter), a broader range of investment options would be available in the Tier 

III fund. These options would be provided by qualified private investment companies, but 

would still be grouped by the PSSSB for transactions with the investment firms. Due to the 

nature of the accounts, an ultimate annual administrative cost of 0.25 percent of PSA assets is 

assumed to be reasonable. 

Annual changes in investment allocation would be allowed. Because the guaranteed benefit 

level is provided regardless of what investment portfolio is selected by the individual, 

substantial variation in investment patterns is assumed to occur. This variation will, in turn, 

result in a relatively wide distribution of achieved life-time investment returns among 

individuals. However, we assume that a large number of account holders will still retain the 

default lifecycle fund. On average, we assume that the portfolio allocation for all accounts 

combined will be fairly aggressive (due to the guarantee), about equivalent to 65 percent in 

equities and 35 percent in Treasury bonds. 

This provision, taken alone, would decrease (worsen) the long-range OASDI actuarial balance 

by an estimated 3.46 percent of taxable payroll 

5b. Benefit Reduction for PSA Participants 

OASI retirement and aged survivor benefits will be reduced based on the level of participation 

by the worker in the personal account option. Benefits payable to disabled worker 

beneficiaries (prior to conversion to retired worker status at the normal retirement age), to 

their dependents, and to survivors other than surviving spouse beneficiaries at age 60 or older 

are not subject to the reduction. 

Reductions in affected OASI benefits would be made based on the proportion of theoretical 

lifetime PSA contributions (assuming the ultimate contribution rates always applied) that was 

realized. Specifically, the benefit reduction would be equal to the scheduled OASI basic 
7

benefits under the plan multiplied by the ratio of (a) the present value of all contributions 

redirected to the worker’s PSA, to (b) the present value of all potential PSA contributions that 

might have been made if the plan had been in existence throughout the working lifetime of the 

worker with the contribution rate at the ultimate level of 8/4 percent. Present values would be 

computed using the realized annual OASDI Trust Fund yields. Potential contributions for 

years before 2011 would be computed by indexing the $10,000 threshold back to earlier years 

using the AWI. 

Based on the reduction described above, workers who first enter the workforce in 2041 or 

later, and who choose to participate fully in the personal account through their working 

lifetime would have their affected OASI benefits reduced to zero. However, as noted above, 

the OASI program would still pay some benefits for those cases in which the annuity from 

fully annuitizing the PSA accumulation is less than the scheduled OASI benefit as modified 

under the basic provisions of this plan. 

This provision, taken alone, would increase (improve) the long-range OASDI actuarial 

balance by an estimated 3.01 percent of taxable payroll. 

5c. PSA Disbursements and Annuitization 

At retirement, the participating worker would be required to purchase a life annuity with CPIindexed payments using the portion of PSA accumulated assets necessary to provide a total 

monthly payment (including any OASDI monthly benefit under the plan) that is at least equal 

to the basic OASDI benefit specified under law from the OASDI program as modified by the 

basic provisions of this plan. The annuity would be administered by the Personal Social 

Security Savings Board (PSSSB), with private investment firms handling the investment of 

assets on an aggregated (group) basis. It is assumed that the annuity would be computed at 

retirement based on an assumption of investment of assets with about the same portfolio 

allocation as experienced on average for the accumulation phase of PSAs, or roughly 

equivalent to 65 percent in a broad equity index and 35 percent in a broad corporate-bond 

index, with an assumed administrative expense of 0.25 percent of assets each year. Assets 

supporting the annuity would, in fact, be invested 65 percent in equities and 35 percent in 

corporate bonds. 

The annuity would be computed using the assumed long-term future returns on equities and 

corporate bonds as determined by the PSSSB at the time of annuitization. The PSSSB would 

assume all risk associated with guaranteeing this yield on life annuities, regardless of what 

actual investment returns turn out to be. The PSSSB would be backed by the Treasury of the 

United States government. Thus, the General Fund of the Treasury would provide the 

“insurance” that the full amount of the annuity will be paid for life regardless of actual 

investment returns. 

If less than the total amount of PSA assets is annuitized, the balance of PSA assets may be 

disbursed or held as the retired worker wishes. All accumulations in and disbursements from 

personal savings accounts, including annuity payments, would be exempt from Federal 

personal income tax. 
8

Upon entitlement to retirement or aged survivor benefits under the current rules of the OASDI 

program, a monthly CPI-indexed annuity amount based on the specifications described above 

would be computed by the central administrative authority. The annuity would reflect all 

potential benefits that might be payable under the OASDI program (i.e., retired worker, 

spouse, child, widow(er), and surviving spouse benefits). Annuity calculations would be 

made at benefit entitlement based on the then-current expected long-range future yield on 

invested assets and the then-current expected future death rates for the potential beneficiaries. 

For individuals who die before receiving retirement (retired worker or aged spouse) benefits, 

the IA assets will be transferred to the account of the surviving spouse, if any, but will be 

allocated as needed to provide annuities for any surviving children of the deceased. If there 

are no survivors, and the worker dies before such benefit entitlement, then the account 

balance goes to the worker’s estate, tax free. 

5d. Personal Social Security Savings Board 

The personal accounts and special annuities (annuity required to make the total benefit at least 

equal to the scheduled OASI benefit under the basic provisions of this plan) for all workers 

will be administered by a single entity, central administrative authority, under the direction of 

the Personal Social Security Savings Board. The central administrative authority would 

maintain records and issue periodic statements to account holders. The PSA management 

would be based on the design of the government employee Thrift Savings Plan (TSP), with 

limited reporting requirements. Aggregated assets would be invested by privately managed 

investment firms. Through this approach it is assumed that PSA administrative costs can be 

expected to be modest, ultimately around 0.25 percent of IA assets for each account holder. 

This might require some Federal subsidy in early years for the PSA, when account balances 

are low and start-up costs are incurred. 

6. Benefit Guarantee 

Individuals who participate in the PSA would benefit from the accumulations in the account 

and would be required to purchase life annuities as described above at least sufficient to, in 

combination with any basic benefit payable from the OASDI program, provide monthly 

payments as large as would be available from the OASDI program alone without ever having 

participated in the PSA. In the event that the available PSA annuity is insufficient to provide 

a total benefit at this level, the OASI Trust Fund would provide an additional annuity amount 

sufficient to provide this guaranteed benefit level. 

Because this guarantee requires additional payments from the OASI Trust Fund in any case 

where benefits would otherwise be too low for any individual, additional financing is required 

to cover this cost. The expected average cost of providing this guarantee would be computed 

reflecting both variation in overall economic and investment return outcomes, and variation in 

portfolios by individuals. The expected average cost of the guarantee would be added to the 

direct costs of benefits from the trust funds and would be put in reserve in years where the 

cost of providing the guarantee is less than expected average cost. For the purpose of 

estimates provided in this memorandum, the expected average cost of the guarantee is 
9

assumed to be realized each year, and so no reserve for the guarantee is shown. In reality, 

reserves would likely accrue in the early years of the operation of the plan. But in any case 

where outcomes might require more expenditure to cover the cost of the guarantee than has 

been reserved at that point, the General Fund transfer provision described below would cover 

the additional cost if there is not at that time sufficient reserve in excess of one year’s outgo in 

the OASI Trust Fund. 

The expected reduction in the OASDI actuarial balance based on the expected cost of 

providing the guarantee is estimated at 0.47 percent of taxable payroll using the expected 

returns on PSA investments. However, from the perspective of a low/risk-adjusted yield on 

PSA investments equal to the expected long-term yield on Treasury bonds, the expected cost 

of providing the guarantee is estimated at 0.91 percent of payroll. 

7. General Fund Transfers to the Trust Funds for Solvency 

The OASDI Trust Funds will receive transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury as 

needed to maintain trust fund solvency. The transfer mechanism would provide for the 

Treasury to issue additional bonds to the public in order to generate revenue to transfer to the 

Trust Funds if, at any time, the combined OASDI Trust Fund ratio (TFR) is projected to fall 

below 100 percent under the provisions of the plan. This provision would guarantee solvency 

for the Trust Funds in any circumstance. 

The increase in the OASDI long-range actuarial balance due to this provision is estimated at 

1.30 percent of taxable payroll using the expected returns on PSA investments. However, 

from the perspective of a low/risk-adjusted yield on PSA investments, equal to the expected 

long-term yield on Treasury bonds, results in more General Fund transfers. Under this 

low/risk adjusted yield perspective, the increase in the OASDI long-range actuarial balance 

for this provision is estimated at 1.54 percent of payroll. 

8. Payroll Tax Rate Reductions for Annual Balance 

If for any year the General Fund transfers described above are set at zero and are not projected 

to be needed in any future year, then the combined payroll tax rate (12.4 percent under current 

law) will be reduced to a level that maintains the annual OASDI cash-flow balance (noninterest income less program cost) at zero. However, this reduction will apply for any year 

only to the extent that it does not result in projections of a negative OASDI annual cash-flow 

balance for any future year under the Trustees intermediate assumptions. In addition, the 

combined OASDI payroll tax rate would in no case be reduced below 3.5 percentage points, 

roughly consistent with the minimal cost of providing benefits for disabled workers and their 

families, and for young survivors, in the future. 

The decrease in the OASDI long-range actuarial balance due to this provision is estimated at 

0.21 percent of taxable payroll using the expected returns on PSA investments. However, 

from the perspective of a low/risk-adjusted yield on PSA investments, equal to the expected 

long-term yield on Treasury bonds, results in less reduction in the payroll tax rate. Under this 
10

low/risk adjusted yield perspective, the decrease in the OASDI long-range actuarial balance 

for this provision is estimated at 0.08 percent of payroll. 

Assumptions 

The guarantee of total payments at the level of scheduled OASDI basic benefits under plan 

provisions would be available for all individual-account participants regardless of the 

portfolio allocation they choose in the Tier II and Tier III funds. The guarantee would assure 

that their total benefits will be no lower than scheduled basic benefits from OASDI if the 

individual had not participated in the PSA. As a result, universal participation in the personal 

savings account option has been assumed for estimates presented in this memorandum. It is 

further assumed that most participants will retain the default portfolio allocation provided 

automatically in the Tier II fund, and that those who select other options will, in aggregate, 

invest with an allocation that results in a similar yield to that for the default allocation. 

The cost of providing the guarantee for individual account participants is estimated assuming 

variation in realized account yields across years, generations, and individuals within 

generations. For individuals or generations with account yields substantially below the 

average expected return, the guarantee may result in additional payments from the Trust 

Funds. Individuals may be more likely to have yields below average if they choose to either 

invest conservatively, of if they attempt to make changes in portfolio allocations in an effort 

to “time the market.” For individuals and generations that experience higher than expected 

returns, little if any cost for the guarantee will be incurred. 

As indicated above, estimates provided in this memorandum are based on the intermediate 

assumptions of the 2008 Trustees Report. In addition, the long-term ultimate average annual 

real yield assumed for equities is 6.4 percent. This is somewhat lower than the historical real 

equity yield over the last several decades. For corporate bonds a real annual yield of 3.4 

percent is assumed. From the perspective of a low or risk-adjusted yield, the real returns for 

equities and corporate bonds are assumed to be the same as for long-term Treasury bonds or 

2.9 percent. 

It should be noted that the precise effects of implementing a plan that would result in a large 

demand for equities and corporate bonds on the yields of these securities is not clear. This 

demand would likely be at least partially offset by reductions in demand for other investment 

mechanisms. For the purpose of these estimates, it is assumed that there will be no net 

dynamic feedback effects on the economy or on the financial markets. 

Financial Effects of the Plan 

Summary Results by Provision 

Tables A1 and A2 provide estimates for the plan in total and for the provisions individually 

on the expected PSA yield assumptions and low/risk-adjust yield assumptions, respectively. 

Summary estimates are provided both for the effect on the long-range OASDI actuarial 
11

balance and the effect on the annual balance between tax income and program cost for the 75th

projection year, 2082. 

Achievement of sustainable solvency requires elimination of the present-law actuarial deficit, 

and at least a very substantial reduction in the projected annual deficit for the year 2082. 

These tables show that the plan would eliminate the present-law OASDI long-range actuarial 

deficit of 1.70 percent of taxable payroll, leaving positive actuarial balances of 0.04 percent of 

payroll under the expected PSA yield assumptions, and a positive OASDI actuarial balance of 

0.02 percent of taxable payroll under the low/risk-adjusted PSA yield assumptions. In either 

case, the present-law projected annual deficit of 4.20 percent of taxable payroll for 2082 

would be eliminated. 

Trust Fund Operations 

Table 1 indicates that under the intermediate assumptions of the 2008 Trustees Report and the 

assumed expected average yields for equities and corporate bonds described above, the 

OASDI program is projected to be solvent throughout the 75-year projection period and 

beyond. The annual cost rate (cost of the OASDI program as a percent of payroll) declines 

steadily after 2032, reflecting the increasing extent of benefit reductions, including those 

associated with PSA participation. The annual balance (net cash-flow balance as a percent of 

payroll) is projected to reach zero for 2066 and beyond. The trust fund ratio is projected to 

reach 100 percent of annual program cost for 2033 through 2065 and to gradually increase 

thereafter, because the retained interest on the assets will be more than needed to maintain a 

constant trust fund ratio. 

General Fund transfers expressed as a percent of taxable payroll are projected to become 

necessary starting in 2032, to rise to a peak of 4.82 percent for 2041 and to decline thereafter, 

reaching zero for 2064 and later. The effective OASDI contribution rate is projected to be 

reduced from the nominal level of 12.4 percent by (1) the amount redirected to personal 

accounts, which reaches 5.12 percent of payroll for 2041 and later, and (2) the cut in the 

contribution rate that is projected to be possible starting in 2066, while maintaining an OASDI 

annual cash-flow balance at zero. The net OASDI contribution rate is projected to decline to 

4.66 percentage points for 2082. 

The actuarial deficit for the OASDI program over the 75-year projection period would be 

improved by an estimated 1.74 percent of taxable payroll, from an actuarial deficit of 1.70 

percent of payroll projected under current law to a positive actuarial balance that rounds to 

0.04 percent of payroll under the plan. 

Program Transfers and Assets 

Table 1a provides an analysis of General Fund transfers under the plan and of net OASDI 

Trust Fund assets. Column 1 shows the annual transfers needed in constant 2008 dollars for 

years 2032 through 2063 to maintain a trust fund asset level equal to the minimum 100 

percent of annual OASDI program cost. Column 2 shows these transfers on a cumulative 

basis in constant 2008 dollars. Column 3 shows the level of the annual General Fund 
12

transfers in present value dollars, and also indicates the total present value transfer at $4.145 

trillion. 

Total projected OASDI Trust Fund assets are shown in column 4. For purpose of comparison, 

the net OASDI Trust Fund assets are also shown for a theoretical Social Security program 

where borrowing authority is assumed for the Trust Funds. The theoretical Social Security 

program with borrowing authority is presented both without and with the net General Fund 

transfers expected under this plan, in columns 7 and 8, respectively. 

If the individual accounts are considered as a part of a “total system”, along with the OASDI 

program, then it is reasonable to consider “total system assets”. These would be the sum of 

net OASDI trust fund assets and PSA assets (columns 4 and 5). Under the intermediate 

assumptions and assuming full annuitization of IA assets, total system assets are expected to 

be large and growing in real terms at the end of the 75-year projection period. Gross 

Domestic product is shown in column 6 for comparison with other values in the table. 

Effect on the Federal Unified Budget 

Table 1b provides estimates of the effect on federal unified budget cash flows and balances 

under this plan and these assumptions in present value discounted dollars. These effects are 

also shown in constant 2008 dollars in table 1b.c. All values in these tables represent the 

amount of the change that would be expected as a result of implementing the proposal, from 

the level that would be projected under current law. The effect of the plan on unified budget 

cash flow (column 5) is expected to vary through 2020. After 2020, the effect on the cash 

flow is expected to be negative for a number of years, until it becomes positive starting in 

2053. This total cash flow change is the combination of the specific plan effects shown in 

columns 1 through 4. It is important to note that these estimates are based on the intermediate 

assumptions of the 2008 Trustees Report and thus are not consistent with estimates made by 

the OMB or the CBO based on their assumptions. 

Column 6 provides the projected effect of implementing the plan on the Federal debt held by 

the public. Column 8 provides the projected effect on the annual unified budget balances, 

including both the cash flow effect in column 5 and the additional interest on the accumulated 

debt indicated in column 6. Column 7 shows the cumulative amount of transfers from the 

General Fund of the Treasury to the trust funds that are needed to maintain solvency of the 

trust funds. These flows do not affect the unified budget as they are transfers within Federal 

government accounts. 

Cash Flow to the General Fund of the Treasury 

Table 1c provides estimates of the net cash flow from the OASDI Trust Funds to the General 

Fund of the Treasury. Revenue paid by the Treasury to the Trust Funds for the redemption of 

the special-issue Treasury obligations held by the Trust Funds is included here as a negative 

cash flow to the General Fund. Specified transfers from the General Fund under the plan also 

are shown as a negative cash flow. 
13

Values in Table 1c are shown as a percent of taxable payroll, in current dollars, in present 

value dollars as of 1/1/2008, and in constant 2008 dollars (discounted to 2008 with the 

projected growth in the CPI). For comparison purposes, net cash flow is also shown for a 

theoretical Social Security program where transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury to 

the OASDI Trust Funds are assumed to occur as needed to assure full payment of scheduled 

benefits in 2041 and later. 

Effects on Trust Fund Assets and Unfunded Obligations 

Table 1d provides estimates of the changes in projected OASDI trust fund assets and, for 

years after trust fund exhaustion, the level of unfunded obligations through the year. The 

table illustrates the effect of various components of the proposal on assets/unfunded 

obligations. For the 75-year long-range period as a whole, the present law unfunded 

obligation of $4.3 trillion in present value is replaced with a positive trust fund balance of 

$0.3 trillion in present value through the end of the period. This change is the net effect of: 

• A $13.9 trillion improvement in OASI funding from reductions in benefit payments 

(from the basic provisions and the PSA offset) and additional revenue from 

coverage of group health premiums (column 2), 

• A $4.1 trillion improvement in funding from transfer from the General Fund of the 

Treasury to the trust funds (column 6), 

• An expenditure of $11.3 trillion in contributions from the trust funds to the 

individual accounts (column 3) to maintain solvency, 

• $1.5 trillion additional cost for the guaranteed benefit level (column 4), and 

• A $0.7 trillion reduction in payroll taxes to the OASDI Trust Funds (column 5). 

Development of Group Health Premium Effects and Transfers under the Plan 

Table 1e provides estimates of the amounts of the estimated revenue from coverage of 

employer provided group health cost coverage (column 1) and the estimated effects on benefit 

payments from this increased coverage (column 2). The net annual change in OASDI cash 

flow is indicated in present value (column 3) and in current dollars (column 4). Estimated 

specified annual transfers under the plan (to maintain OASDI trust fund solvency) are shown 

in present value discounted to January 1, 2008 (column 5). The cumulative amount of these 

transfers is shown in column 6. The amount of these annual transfers is also shown as 

percentage of annual GDP (column 8) and as percentage of OASDI taxable payroll (column 

9). 

Components of Cash Flow to the General Fund of the Treasury 

In Table 1f, total net cash flow from the OASDI Trust Funds to the General Fund of the 

Treasury (column 1) is shown in two components. The first is the cash flow due to the 

amounts of the specified transfers to the trust funds under this proposal (column 2) which are 

needed to assure that the OASDI Trust Fund assets do not fall below 100 percent of the 

annual cost of the program The second component (column 3) is the residual amount of cash 

flow due to the trust funds’ net purchase (or redemption) of assets held in the form of special-
14

issue Treasury Securities, based on the annual balance excluding specified General Fund 

transfers. Net purchases of Treasury securities are projected to change to net redemptions 

starting in 2016, under the proposal. Net redemptions are projected to continue through 2065. 

For 2066 and later, net redemptions of Treasury securities held be the trust funds are projected 

to be essentially zero, consistent with the targeted zero OASDI annual cash-flow under the 

proposal. 

Sensitivity Analysis 

Tables 2, 2a, 2b, 2c, 2d, 2e and 2f provide an analysis of the implications of realizing actual 

real yields on individual account assets that are equal to the assumed average real yield on 

long-term Treasury bonds, or 2.9 percent. This may be viewed as either illustrating the case 

where the average real yield on equities and corporate bonds is (and is expected to be) no 

higher than on government bonds, or illustrating the effect of assuming risk-adjusted returns 

on equities and corporate bonds for all purposes. In either case, the “expected” yield on 

annuitized assets is assumed to match the actual yield, on average. It should be noted that 

while average real yields for equities have been at or below average bond yields for periods of 

a decade or so, the likelihood of having such a low average yield for a period of several 

decades is low. We have estimated through stochastic simulation that there is about a 20 

percent probability that the average cumulative return from equities will be less than for 

treasury bonds over the accumulation investment period of a typical worker. 

Table 2 indicates that net General Fund transfers would be needed 7 years longer, through 

2070 . This is largely due to the fact that, with the assumed low yield on individual account 

assets, the cost of providing the guarantee is far higher. Table 2b column 2 indicates the 

present value of the cost of the guarantee is estimated at $2.9 trillion compared to $1.5 trillion 

under the expected return assumption. 

Only one sensitivity example is provided because the financial status of the OASDI Trust 

Funds under the plan is relatively insensitive to individual account returns. Even the low 

average returns in tables 2 require only a 7 year extension of the period of annual specified 

transfers. 

It must be noted that the uncertainties associated with equity investments, bond yields, and 

mortality improvement, as well as with a number of additional variables mean that actual 

experience could vary from the illustrations provided in Tables 1 and 2. In any case, the plan 

would provide for adequate financing for the OASDI program through the provisions 

described above. 

 

 Stephen C. Goss 

Attachments 
Table A1--Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of the “Social Security Personal Savings 

Guarantee and Prosperity Act of 2008” 

(5.1% Expected PSA Average Annual Real Yield; 100 Percent PSA Participation) 

Number Provision

Estimated Change in 

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

in 75th year 

(as a percent of payroll)

1 Progressive Price Indexing--For workers newly eligible for benefits in 

2016 or later, set a new PIA bend point at 28.6% of the way between the 

two current law bend points (this is at about the 30th percentile of career 

earnings for new retired workers). Proportionately reduce the 32 percent 

and 15 percent factors that apply above the new bend point sufficient to 

make the total benefit for career maximum earners grow across 

generations by CPI increases, rather than the average wage increases. 

Individuals at or below the 30th percentile of career-average earners would 

have no benefit reduction. This provision does not affect DI beneficiaries 

until conversion to retirement benefits at attainment of normal retirement 

age, and then applies in proportion to non-disabled years between ages 22 

and 62. ........................................................................................................... 1.13 3.55 

2 Low-Earner Benefit Enhancement-- Increase the PIA to a level such 

that a worker with 30 years of earnings at the minimum wage level would 

receive an adjusted PIA equal to 120 percent of the Federal poverty level 

for an aged individual. This provision would take full effect for all newly 

eligible OASDI workers in 2025, and would be phased in for new eligible 

in 2016 through 2024. The percentage increase in PIA would be lowered 

proportionately for those with fewer than 30 years of earnings, down to no 

enhancement for workers with 20 or fewer years of earnings. (Year-ofwork requirements are “scaled” for disabled workers based on their years 

of potential work from age 22 to benefit eligibility). The benefit 

enhancement percentage would be reduced proportionately for workers 

with higher average indexed monthly earnings (AIME), down to no 

enhancement for those with AIME at least twice that of a 35-year steady 

minimum wage earner ................................................................................... -0.04 1/

3 NRA Indexing--Increase the normal retirement age (NRA) from 66 to 67 

one year earlier than current law, starting for those reaching age 62 in 

2016 and ending for those reaching age 62 in 2021. Then, after 2021, 

index the NRA to maintain a constant ratio of expected retirement years 

(life expectancy at NRA) to potential work years (NRA minus 20). .............. 0.38 1.11 

4 Group Health Insurance Premium Coverage--Provide for OASDI 

payroll tax coverage of employer provided group health insurance cost, 

starting in 2010. Specifically, any cost toward such group health 

insurance borne by employees would cease to be deductible, and the cost 

borne by employers would now be allocated to employees as if it had been 

wages, for the purpose of payroll tax (and later, benefit) calculations. 

Both employee and employer OASDI payroll taxes would be affected by 

this proposal.................................................................................................... 1.20 1.62 
Table A1--Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of the “Social Security Personal Savings 

Guarantee and Prosperity Act of 2008” 

(5.1% Expected PSA Average Annual Real Yield; 100 Percent PSA Participation) 

Number Provision

Estimated Change in 

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

in 75th year 

(as a percent of payroll)

5a 

5b 

Personal Savings Account Contributions--Starting in 2011, provide for 

voluntary personal savings accounts (PSAs) for individuals who attain 55 

in 2009 or later. The contribution to PSAs will be a portion of OASDI 

payroll tax redirected from the OASDI Trust Funds to an individual 

account. The percentage of taxable earnings to be redirected in years 2011 

through 2020 will be 2 percent of the first $10,000 of covered earnings for 

the year, plus 1 percent of earnings in excess of $10,000 up to the OASDI 

taxable maximum amount (which is $102,000 for 2008). The $10,000 

threshold would be indexed by increases in the SSA National Average 

Wage Index (AWI) for years after 2011. For years 2021 through 2030, the 

percentages for contributions redirected to the PSA would be 4 percent up 

to the threshold and 2 percent above it. For the period 2031 through 2040 

the percentages would be further increased to 6 and 3 percent. Finally, for 

earnings in 2041 and later, the size of the account contribution will be 8 

percent of taxable earnings up to the indexed threshold and 4 percent over 

that level..........................................................................................................

Personal Savings Account Benefit Offset--For PSA participants, OASI 

retirement and aged survivor benefits would be reduced based on the 

proportion of theoretical lifetime contributions that was realized. 

Specifically, the benefit reduction would be the ratio of (a) the present 

value of all contributions redirected to the worker’s PSA, to (b) the present 

value of all potential PSA contributions that might have been made if the 

plan had been in existence throughout the working lifetime of the worker 

with the contribution rate at the ultimate level of 8/4 percent.........................

-3.46 

 

3.01 

-5.12 

 

12.00 

 

Provisions 5a and 5b, combined...................................................................... -0.44 6.88 

6 Benefit Guarantee--For individual account (PSA) participants, provide a 

guarantee that the total program benefits available from the combination 

of OASDI basic benefits (as reduced for account participation) and full 

annuitization of the individual account would at least equal the OASDI 

scheduled benefit under the basic provisions of the plan ................................ -0.47 -0.84 

7 GF Transfers for Solvency--Provide for transfers from the General Fund 

of the Treasury to the OASDI Trust Funds as needed if, at any time, the 

combined OASDI Trust Fund ratio (TFR) is projected to fall below 100 

percent under the provisions of the plan ......................................................... 1.30 0.00 

8 Payroll Tax Rate Reductions for Annual Balance--Provide for cuts in 

the combined OASDI payroll tax rate for any year in which (a) the 

General Fund transfers described in 7. above are set at zero and are not 

projected to be needed in any future year, and (b) such reduction does not 

result in projections of a negative OASDI annual cash-flow balance for 

any future year. The payroll tax cuts are made in such a way that the 

annual OASDI cash-flow balance (non-interest income less program cost) 

remains at essentially zero, but the combined payroll tax rate would not be 

reduced below 3.5 percentage points .............................................................. -0.21 -2.62 

Total for all provisions, including interaction ................................................ 1.74 4.20 

Notes: All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2008 OASDI Trustees Report. 

Provisions 1 through 5b exclude interaction; provisions 6 through 8, based on their nature, reflect other provisions of the proposal. 

1/ Decrease in annual balance in the 75th year that is estimated to be negligible, i.e., less than 0.005 percent of taxable payroll. 

SSA/Office of the Chief Actuary 

May 20, 2008 
Table A2--Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of the “Social Security Personal Savings 

Guarantee and Prosperity Act of 2008” 

(2.65% Low/Risk-Adjusted PSA Average Annual Real Yield; 100 Percent PSA Participation) 

Number Provision

Estimated Change in 

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

in 75th year 

(as a percent of payroll)

1 Progressive Price Indexing--For workers newly eligible for benefits in 

2016 or later, set a new PIA bend point at 28.6% of the way between the 

two current law bend points (this is at about the 30th percentile of career 

earnings for new retired workers). Proportionately reduce the 32 percent 

and 15 percent factors that apply above the new bend point sufficient to 

make the total benefit for career maximum earners grow across 

generations by CPI increases, rather than the average wage increases. 

Individuals at or below the 30th percentile of career-average earners would 

have no benefit reduction. This provision does not affect DI beneficiaries 

until conversion to retirement benefits at attainment of normal retirement 

age, and then applies in proportion to non-disabled years between ages 22 

and 62. ........................................................................................................... 1.13 3.55 

2 Low-Earner Benefit Enhancement-- Increase the PIA to a level such 

that a worker with 30 years of earnings at the minimum wage level would 

receive an adjusted PIA equal to 120 percent of the Federal poverty level 

for an aged individual. This provision would take full effect for all newly 

eligible OASDI workers in 2025, and would be phased in for new eligible 

in 2016 through 2024. The percentage increase in PIA would be lowered 

proportionately for those with fewer than 30 years of earnings, down to no 

enhancement for workers with 20 or fewer years of earnings. (Year-ofwork requirements are “scaled” for disabled workers based on their years 

of potential work from age 22 to benefit eligibility). The benefit 

enhancement percentage would be reduced proportionately for workers 

with higher average indexed monthly earnings (AIME), down to no 

enhancement for those with AIME at least twice that of a 35-year steady 

minimum wage earner .................................................................................... -0.04 1/

3 NRA Indexing--Increase the normal retirement age (NRA) from 66 to 67 

one year earlier than current law, starting for those reaching age 62 in 

2016 and ending for those reaching age 62 in 2021. Then, after 2021, 

index the NRA to maintain a constant ratio of expected retirement years 

(life expectancy at NRA) to potential work years (NRA minus 20). .............. 0.38 1.11 

4 Group Health Insurance Premium Coverage--Provide for OASDI 

payroll tax coverage of employer provided group health insurance cost, 

starting in 2010. Specifically, any cost toward such group health 

insurance borne by employees would cease to be deductible, and the cost 

borne by employers would now be allocated to employees as if it had been 

wages, for the purpose of payroll tax (and later, benefit) calculations. 

Both employee and employer OASDI payroll taxes would be affected by 

this proposal.................................................................................................... 1.20 1.62 
Table A2--Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of the “Social Security Personal Savings 

Guarantee and Prosperity Act of 2008” 

(2.65% Low/Risk-Adjusted PSA Average Annual Real Yield; 100 Percent PSA Participation) 

Number Provision

Estimated Change in 

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

in 75th year 

(as a percent of payroll)

5a 

5b 

Personal Savings Account Contributions--Starting in 2011, provide for 

voluntary personal savings accounts (PSAs) for individuals who attain 55 

in 2009 or later. The contribution to PSAs will be a portion of OASDI 

payroll tax redirected from the OASDI Trust Funds to an individual 

account. The percentage of taxable earnings to be redirected in years 2011 

through 2020 will be 2 percent of the first $10,000 of covered earnings for 

the year, plus 1 percent of earnings in excess of $10,000 up to the OASDI 

taxable maximum amount (which is $102,000 for 2008). The $10,000 

threshold would be indexed by increases in the SSA National Average 

Wage Index (AWI) for years after 2011. For years 2021 through 2030, the 

percentages for contributions redirected to the PSA would be 4 percent up 

to the threshold and 2 percent above it. For the period 2031 through 2040 

the percentages would be further increased to 6 and 3 percent. Finally, for 

earnings in 2041 and later, the size of the account contribution will be 8 

percent of taxable earnings up to the indexed threshold and 4 percent over 

that level..........................................................................................................

Personal Savings Account Benefit Offset--For PSA participants, OASI 

retirement and aged survivor benefits would be reduced based on the 

proportion of theoretical lifetime contributions that was realized. 

Specifically, the benefit reduction would be the ratio of (a) the present 

value of all contributions redirected to the worker’s PSA, to (b) the present 

value of all potential PSA contributions that might have been made if the 

plan had been in existence throughout the working lifetime of the worker 

with the contribution rate at the ultimate level of 8/4 percent.........................

-3.46 

3.01 

5.12 

12.00 

 

Provisions 5a and 5b, combined...................................................................... -0.44 6.88 

6 Benefit Guarantee--For individual account (PSA) participants, provide a 

guarantee that the total program benefits available from the combination 

of OASDI basic benefits (as reduced for account participation) and full 

annuitization of the individual account would at least equal the OASDI 

scheduled benefit under the basic provisions of the plan ................................ -0.91 -2.17 

7 GF Transfers for Solvency--Provide for transfers from the General Fund 

of the Treasury to the OASDI Trust Funds as needed if, at any time, the 

combined OASDI Trust Fund ratio (TFR) is projected to fall below 100 

percent under the provisions of the plan ......................................................... 1.54 0.00 

8 Payroll Tax Rate Reductions for Annual Balance--Provide for cuts in 

the combined OASDI payroll tax rate for any year in which (a) the 

General Fund transfers described in 7. above are set at zero and are not 

projected to be needed in any future year, and (b) such reduction does not 

result in projections of a negative OASDI annual cash-flow balance for 

any future year. The payroll tax cuts are made in such a way that the 

annual OASDI cash-flow balance (non-interest income less program cost) 

remains at essentially zero, but the combined payroll tax rate would not be 

reduced below 3.5 percentage points .............................................................. -0.08 -1.36 

Total for all provisions, including interaction ................................................ 1.72 4.20 

Notes: All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2008 OASDI Trustees Report. 

Provisions 1 through 5b exclude interaction; provisions 6 through 8, based on their nature, reflect other provisions of the proposal. 

1/ Decrease in annual balance in the 75th year that is estimated to be negligible, i.e., less than 0.005 percent of taxable payroll. 

SSA/Office of the Chief Actuary 

May 20, 2008 
Table 1 - Ryan Proposal: Social Security Personal Savings Guarantee and Prosperity Act of 2008

Expected Yield Progressive Price Indexing PSA Participation: 100.0%

PSA Contribution : Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%. starts in 2016 for those Average PSA Contribution: 5.12%

8/4% in 2041; 2/1% in 2011; Ultimate Real PSA Yield of 5.1%. under 55 on 1-1-09

4/2% in 2021; 6/3% in 2031 Ultimate Annuity Yield of 5.1%.

Cost Income Annual TFR

General 

Revenue Cut for Annual Redirected

Year Rate Rate Balance 1-1-yr Transfers1 Change in Rate Net Rate2 Balance to PSA

2008 11.20 12.77 1.57 359 12.40 0.00

2009 11.26 12.81 1.54 369 12.40 0.00

2010 10.48 12.79 2.31 378 12.40 0.00

2011 10.67 11.73 1.06 395 -1.08 11.32 1.08

2012 10.92 11.73 0.81 399 -0.02 11.30 1.10

2013 11.11 11.74 0.63 399 -0.02 11.28 1.12

2014 11.31 11.73 0.42 398 -0.02 11.26 1.14

2015 11.51 11.73 0.21 395 -0.02 11.24 1.16

2016 11.73 11.73 0.00 391 -0.02 11.22 1.18

2017 11.95 11.73 -0.21 386 -0.02 11.20 1.20

2018 12.15 11.73 -0.41 379 -0.01 11.19 1.21

2019 12.40 11.74 -0.66 372 -0.01 11.18 1.22

2020 12.64 11.74 -0.90 363 -0.01 11.17 1.23

2021 12.88 10.51 -2.37 354 -1.25 9.92 2.48

2022 13.09 10.51 -2.58 334 -0.02 9.90 2.50

2023 13.28 10.50 -2.78 314 -0.01 9.89 2.51

2024 13.46 10.50 -2.95 293 -0.01 9.87 2.53

2025 13.61 10.51 -3.11 272 -0.01 9.87 2.53

2026 13.76 10.51 -3.25 250 -0.01 9.86 2.54

2027 13.89 10.51 -3.38 228 -0.01 9.85 2.55

2028 14.00 10.51 -3.48 205 -0.01 9.85 2.55

2029 14.08 10.52 -3.57 182 0.00 9.84 2.56

2030 14.14 10.52 -3.62 159 0.00 9.84 2.56

2031 14.16 9.24 -4.92 135 -1.28 8.56 3.84

2032 14.16 13.60 -0.56 103 4.35 0.00 8.56 3.84

2033 14.13 13.90 -0.23 100 4.66 0.00 8.56 3.84

2034 14.08 13.91 -0.17 100 4.67 0.00 8.56 3.84

2035 14.00 13.75 -0.25 100 4.51 0.00 8.56 3.84

2036 13.90 13.58 -0.32 100 4.34 0.00 8.56 3.84

2037 13.77 13.51 -0.26 100 4.28 0.00 8.56 3.84

2038 13.62 13.22 -0.40 100 3.99 0.00 8.56 3.84

2039 13.45 13.15 -0.31 100 3.93 0.00 8.56 3.84

2040 13.29 13.07 -0.22 100 3.86 0.00 8.56 3.84

2041 13.11 12.74 -0.37 100 4.82 -1.28 7.28 5.12

2042 12.92 12.55 -0.37 100 4.64 0.00 7.28 5.12

2043 12.73 12.47 -0.25 100 4.57 0.00 7.28 5.12

2044 12.52 12.16 -0.36 100 4.27 0.00 7.28 5.12

2045 12.32 11.96 -0.36 100 4.07 0.00 7.28 5.12

2046 12.11 11.75 -0.36 100 3.88 0.00 7.28 5.12

2047 11.89 11.54 -0.35 100 3.68 0.00 7.28 5.12

2048 11.66 11.32 -0.34 100 3.47 0.00 7.28 5.12

2049 11.42 11.02 -0.40 100 3.18 0.00 7.28 5.12

2050 11.19 10.87 -0.33 100 3.04 0.00 7.28 5.12

2051 10.96 10.63 -0.33 100 2.82 0.00 7.28 5.12

2052 10.72 10.34 -0.38 100 2.54 0.00 7.28 5.12

2053 10.49 10.10 -0.39 100 2.31 0.00 7.28 5.12

2054 10.25 9.90 -0.36 100 2.12 0.00 7.28 5.12

2055 10.02 9.72 -0.30 100 1.96 0.00 7.28 5.12

2056 9.79 9.46 -0.33 100 1.71 0.00 7.28 5.12

2057 9.54 9.19 -0.35 100 1.46 0.00 7.28 5.12

2058 9.29 8.92 -0.38 100 1.19 0.00 7.28 5.12

2059 9.04 8.69 -0.34 100 0.98 0.00 7.28 5.12

2060 8.82 8.47 -0.35 100 0.77 0.00 7.28 5.12

2061 8.60 8.32 -0.28 100 0.63 0.00 7.28 5.12

2062 8.38 8.08 -0.29 100 0.41 0.00 7.28 5.12

2063 8.15 7.81 -0.34 100 0.15 0.00 7.28 5.12

2064 7.93 7.65 -0.28 100 0.00 7.28 5.12

2065 7.71 7.64 -0.07 100 0.00 7.28 5.12

2066 7.48 7.48 0.00 103 -0.14 7.14 0.14 5.12

2067 7.26 7.26 0.00 108 -0.21 6.93 0.35 5.12

2068 7.05 7.05 0.00 112 -0.20 6.73 0.55 5.12

2069 6.85 6.85 0.00 116 -0.20 6.53 0.75 5.12

2070 6.67 6.67 0.00 121 -0.16 6.37 0.91 5.12

2071 6.51 6.51 0.00 125 -0.15 6.22 1.06 5.12

2072 6.35 6.35 0.00 129 -0.15 6.07 1.21 5.12

2073 6.20 6.20 0.00 134 -0.15 5.92 1.36 5.12

2074 6.04 6.04 0.00 139 -0.15 5.77 1.51 5.12

2075 5.88 5.88 0.00 144 -0.15 5.62 1.66 5.12

2076 5.73 5.73 0.00 150 -0.15 5.48 1.80 5.12

2077 5.58 5.58 0.00 155 -0.14 5.33 1.95 5.12

2078 5.43 5.43 0.00 161 -0.14 5.19 2.09 5.12

2079 5.28 5.28 0.00 167 -0.14 5.06 2.22 5.12

2080 5.14 5.14 0.00 174 -0.13 4.92 2.36 5.12

2081 5.00 5.00 0.00 181 -0.13 4.79 2.49 5.12

2082 4.87 4.87 0.00 188 -0.13 4.66 2.62 5.12

2083 4.73 4.73 0.00 195 -0.12 4.54 2.74 5.12

Summarized OASDI

Actuarial Change in 

Cost Rate Income Rate Balance Actuarial Balance Guarantee that PSA plus OASDI benefit is at least 

2008 - 2082 11.10 11.14 0.04 1.74 as much as proposed scheduled benefits

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2008 Trustees Report. 

All values are expressed as percents of taxable payroll, except TFR. Office of the Actuary

1

 Amounts needed to maintain 100 percent Trust Fund Ratio Social Security Administration 2

 Net payroll tax rate to the Trust Funds; reduced by amount redirected for IA contribution, and cut for annual balance May 20, 2008

 OASDI "Effective" 

Contribution Rate

OASDI Contribution Rate
Table 1a Proposal General Fund Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Assets, and Theoretical OASDI Assets

Expected Yield: Ryan Proposal

OASDI

Accumulated Trust Fund PSA

Annual as of Annual Assets at Assets at Without General With Plan General 

Amounts End of Year Amounts End of Year End of Year1 GDP Fund Transfers Fund Transfers

Calendar (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

Year PV as of 1-1-2008 Billions of Constant 2008 Dollars

2008 0 0 0 2,435 0 14,445 2,435 2,435

2009 0 0 0 2,583 0 14,793 2,583 2,583

2010 0 0 0 2,790 0 15,135 2,727 2,727

2011 0 0 0 2,923 72 15,451 2,869 2,869

2012 0 0 0 3,046 150 15,768 3,005 3,005

2013 0 0 0 3,162 235 16,093 3,132 3,132

2014 0 0 0 3,270 327 16,416 3,247 3,247

2015 0 0 0 3,366 426 16,724 3,349 3,349

2016 0 0 0 3,452 534 17,042 3,437 3,437

2017 0 0 0 3,527 649 17,363 3,510 3,510

2018 0 0 0 3,589 773 17,682 3,568 3,568

2019 0 0 0 3,636 904 18,001 3,609 3,609

2020 0 0 0 3,665 1,044 18,322 3,632 3,632

2021 0 0 0 3,578 1,293 18,644 3,637 3,637

2022 0 0 0 3,469 1,558 18,968 3,625 3,625

2023 0 0 0 3,338 1,840 19,295 3,592 3,592

2024 0 0 0 3,184 2,138 19,629 3,540 3,540

2025 0 0 0 3,008 2,452 19,964 3,466 3,466

2026 0 0 0 2,811 2,783 20,306 3,372 3,372

2027 0 0 0 2,592 3,132 20,651 3,257 3,257

2028 0 0 0 2,352 3,498 21,003 3,121 3,121

2029 0 0 0 2,092 3,881 21,364 2,964 2,964

2030 0 0 0 1,814 4,283 21,732 2,786 2,786

2031 0 0 0 1,400 4,826 22,111 2,589 2,589

2032 408 420 210 1,385 5,395 22,498 2,373 2,792

2033 444 888 222 1,402 5,992 22,897 2,139 3,027

2034 453 1,380 220 1,424 6,616 23,305 1,889 3,269

2035 445 1,877 210 1,439 7,269 23,720 1,624 3,501

2036 436 2,380 200 1,447 7,951 24,140 1,345 3,724

2037 437 2,898 195 1,461 8,662 24,568 1,051 3,949

2038 415 3,409 180 1,459 9,403 25,007 744 4,153

2039 415 3,935 175 1,467 10,174 25,456 425 4,360

2040 415 4,477 170 1,483 10,975 25,914 94 4,571

2041 528 5,149 210 1,483 11,953 26,379 -248 4,902

2042 517 5,831 200 1,482 12,971 26,852 -601 5,230

2043 519 6,533 195 1,494 14,030 27,333 -966 5,567

2044 493 7,230 180 1,493 15,131 27,824 -1,344 5,886

2045 479 7,932 170 1,491 16,273 28,319 -1,735 6,197

2046 464 8,639 160 1,489 17,456 28,818 -2,139 6,500

2047 448 9,350 150 1,486 18,681 29,324 -2,559 6,791

2048 430 10,064 140 1,484 19,947 29,838 -2,994 7,070

2049 401 10,768 127 1,474 21,255 30,357 -3,445 7,323

2050 390 11,482 120 1,473 22,602 30,882 -3,914 7,567

2051 368 12,193 110 1,470 23,990 31,413 -4,402 7,791

2052 337 12,893 98 1,459 25,417 31,955 -4,911 7,983

2053 312 13,588 88 1,445 26,884 32,508 -5,441 8,147

2054 292 14,282 80 1,435 28,387 33,069 -5,994 8,288

2055 274 14,978 73 1,432 29,926 33,638 -6,571 8,407

2056 243 15,662 63 1,424 31,502 34,213 -7,173 8,489

2057 210 16,333 53 1,412 33,114 34,800 -7,803 8,530

2058 176 16,987 43 1,394 34,763 35,397 -8,460 8,527

2059 147 17,631 35 1,380 36,447 36,008 -9,146 8,485

2060 117 18,262 27 1,363 38,165 36,626 -9,861 8,402

2061 98 18,893 22 1,357 39,915 37,253 -10,607 8,286

2062 64 19,507 14 1,346 41,699 37,893 -11,385 8,122

2063 24 20,097 5 1,327 43,514 38,544 -12,196 7,901

2064 0 20,679 0 1,317 45,359 39,207 -13,041 7,638

2065 0 21,279 0 1,341 47,236 39,881 -13,923 7,356

2066 0 21,896 0 1,378 49,141 40,563 -14,842 7,055

2067 0 22,531 0 1,416 51,076 41,258 -15,799 6,732

2068 0 23,185 0 1,455 53,038 41,966 -16,798 6,387

2069 0 23,857 0 1,495 55,026 42,682 -17,837 6,020

2070 0 24,549 0 1,536 57,040 43,406 -18,921 5,628

2071 0 25,261 0 1,578 59,079 44,140 -20,051 5,210

2072 0 25,993 0 1,622 61,141 44,892 -21,227 4,766

2073 0 26,747 0 1,667 63,227 45,656 -22,453 4,294

2074 0 27,523 0 1,713 65,337 46,430 -23,730 3,793

2075 0 28,321 0 1,760 67,469 47,217 -25,059 3,262

2076 0 29,142 0 1,809 69,625 48,013 -26,444 2,699

2077 0 29,987 0 1,859 71,804 48,823 -27,885 2,103

2078 0 30,857 0 1,910 74,005 49,641 -29,385 1,472

2079 0 31,752 0 1,963 76,229 50,473 -30,947 805

2080 0 32,673 0 2,018 78,475 51,316 -32,572 100

2081 0 33,620 0 2,074 80,662 52,175 -34,263 -643

2082 0 34,595 0 2,131 82,949 53,047 -36,023 -1,427

Total 2008-82 4,145

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2008 Trustees Report. 

1

 Including annuity assets, assuming all annuitize fully. Office of the Chief Actuary 2

 Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption Social Security Administration

 that the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury. May 20, 2008

Billions of Constant 2008 $

Proposal General Fund Transfers to Maintain 100% TFR

Theoretical Social Security 

with Borrowing Authority2

Net OASDI Trust Fund Assets at EOY
Table 1b IA Contributions, OASI Benefit Changes, & Total Unified Budget Effect

Expected Yield: Ryan Proposal Average PSA Contribution: 5.12%

Cost to Guarantee Basic Benefit 

Combined OASI Changes, Reduction Cut in Change in Change in Cumulative Change in

Amount and PSA Benefits for PSA Participation, Contribution Annual Debt Held Transfers to TFs Annual 

 Contributed at Proposed & Net Effect for Group Rate for Unified Budget by Public for 100% TFR Unified Budget

to PSA Scheduled Levels Health Premium Annual Balance Cash Flow (EOY) (EOY) Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

Year

2009 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2010 0.0 0.0 57.0 0.0 57.0 -59.9 0.0 59.9

2011 63.1 0.0 54.3 0.0 -8.8 -50.7 0.0 -6.3

2012 63.9 0.0 51.5 0.0 -12.4 -37.6 0.0 -10.6

2013 65.2 0.0 55.3 0.0 -9.9 -27.2 0.0 -8.5

2014 66.3 0.0 59.0 0.0 -7.3 -19.6 0.0 -6.3

2015 67.2 0.0 62.5 0.0 -4.7 -14.6 0.0 -4.0

2016 68.0 0.3 66.4 0.0 -1.9 -12.6 0.0 -1.2

2017 68.5 0.8 70.1 0.0 0.8 -13.4 0.0 1.5

2018 69.0 1.5 73.9 0.0 3.4 -17.0 0.0 4.3

2019 69.0 2.4 74.9 0.0 3.5 -20.8 0.0 4.6

2020 68.8 3.1 76.0 0.0 4.0 -25.0 0.0 5.4

2021 137.1 3.9 76.7 0.0 -64.3 42.9 0.0 -66.6

2022 136.3 4.7 78.0 0.0 -63.0 109.6 0.0 -69.0

2023 135.4 5.6 79.8 0.0 -61.2 174.3 0.0 -70.7

2024 134.3 6.5 81.9 0.0 -58.8 236.6 0.0 -71.8

2025 133.1 7.4 84.4 0.0 -56.2 296.0 0.0 -72.4

2026 131.9 8.5 86.7 0.0 -53.7 352.8 0.0 -73.0

2027 130.6 9.5 89.4 0.0 -50.7 406.4 0.0 -72.9

2028 129.3 10.6 92.5 0.0 -47.4 456.5 0.0 -72.3

2029 127.9 11.8 96.0 0.0 -43.7 502.7 0.0 -71.1

2030 126.4 13.0 99.9 0.0 -39.5 544.5 0.0 -69.3

2031 187.4 14.3 104.3 0.0 -97.4 647.6 0.0 -132.8

2032 185.2 15.5 108.8 0.0 -91.9 744.7 210.0 -132.6

2033 183.1 16.7 113.2 0.0 -86.5 836.2 432.0 -132.2

2034 181.0 17.8 117.7 0.0 -81.0 922.0 652.0 -131.4

2035 179.0 18.8 122.4 0.0 -75.3 1,001.6 862.0 -130.1

2036 177.0 19.7 127.4 0.0 -69.2 1,074.9 1,062.0 -128.0

2037 175.0 20.4 132.5 0.0 -62.9 1,141.5 1,257.0 -125.3

2038 173.0 21.1 137.6 0.0 -56.5 1,201.2 1,437.0 -122.1

2039 171.1 21.6 143.0 0.0 -49.7 1,253.7 1,612.0 -118.2

2040 169.3 22.8 148.3 0.0 -43.8 1,300.1 1,782.0 -114.9

2041 223.2 24.0 153.8 0.0 -93.4 1,398.9 1,992.0 -169.9

2042 220.8 25.1 159.5 0.0 -86.4 1,490.2 2,192.0 -167.8

2043 218.4 26.1 165.3 0.0 -79.2 1,574.0 2,387.0 -165.2

2044 216.1 26.9 171.2 0.0 -71.8 1,649.9 2,567.0 -161.9

2045 213.7 27.6 177.2 0.0 -64.1 1,717.8 2,737.0 -158.0

2046 211.3 28.2 183.0 0.0 -56.5 1,777.5 2,897.0 -153.6

2047 209.0 28.5 189.1 0.0 -48.4 1,828.7 3,047.0 -148.3

2048 206.6 28.8 195.5 0.0 -39.9 1,871.0 3,187.0 -142.2

2049 204.3 28.8 202.0 0.0 -31.1 1,903.9 3,314.0 -135.2

2050 202.0 29.6 208.7 0.0 -23.0 1,928.2 3,434.0 -128.3

2051 199.7 30.4 215.8 0.0 -14.3 1,943.3 3,544.0 -120.5

2052 197.4 31.0 222.8 0.0 -5.6 1,949.2 3,642.0 -112.1

2053 195.2 31.4 229.7 0.0 3.0 1,946.0 3,730.0 -103.3

2054 193.0 31.8 236.3 0.0 11.5 1,933.8 3,810.0 -94.2

2055 190.8 31.9 242.7 0.0 20.0 1,912.6 3,883.0 -84.5

2056 188.6 31.8 248.8 0.0 28.4 1,882.5 3,946.0 -74.5

2057 186.4 31.4 254.8 0.0 37.0 1,843.4 3,999.0 -63.8

2058 184.3 30.7 260.6 0.0 45.6 1,795.2 4,042.0 -52.5

2059 182.2 29.9 266.3 0.0 54.2 1,737.9 4,077.0 -40.8

2060 180.1 30.2 271.7 0.0 61.4 1,673.0 4,104.0 -30.0

2061 178.0 30.4 276.9 0.0 68.4 1,600.6 4,126.0 -19.1

2062 176.0 30.5 281.9 0.0 75.4 1,520.9 4,140.0 -7.8

2063 174.0 30.4 286.6 0.0 82.1 1,434.0 4,145.0 3.8

2064 172.0 30.3 291.1 0.0 88.8 1,340.1 4,145.0 15.5

2065 170.1 29.9 295.3 0.0 95.3 1,239.3 4,145.0 27.6

2066 168.1 29.5 299.5 4.7 97.1 1,136.5 4,145.0 35.0

2067 166.2 28.9 303.2 11.4 96.7 1,034.3 4,145.0 40.1

2068 164.3 28.2 306.4 17.7 96.2 932.6 4,145.0 45.2

2069 162.4 27.4 309.2 23.7 95.7 831.4 4,145.0 50.2

2070 160.5 27.4 311.7 28.5 95.3 730.5 4,145.0 55.4

2071 158.7 27.4 313.8 32.8 95.0 630.1 4,145.0 60.5

2072 156.8 27.3 315.8 37.1 94.6 530.1 4,145.0 65.6

2073 155.0 27.1 317.5 41.2 94.2 430.4 4,145.0 70.7

2074 153.2 26.9 319.1 45.1 93.9 331.1 4,145.0 75.8

2075 151.4 26.6 320.5 49.0 93.5 232.2 4,145.0 80.8

2076 149.6 26.2 321.7 52.7 93.2 133.6 4,145.0 85.9

2077 147.9 25.8 322.7 56.2 92.9 35.3 4,145.0 91.0

2078 146.1 25.3 323.6 59.5 92.6 -62.6 4,145.0 96.0

2079 144.4 24.8 324.2 62.7 92.3 -160.3 4,145.0 101.1

2080 142.7 24.2 324.6 65.7 92.0 -257.6 4,145.0 106.1

2081 141.0 23.5 324.9 68.6 91.7 -354.7 4,145.0 111.1

2082 139.4 22.8 324.9 71.3 91.4 -451.4 4,145.0 116.1

Total 2008-82 11,273.7 1,463.1 13,891.2 727.7

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2008 Trustees Report. Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%. Office of the Chief Actuary

Ultimate Real PSA Yield of 5.1%. Social Security Administration

Ultimate Annuity Yield of 5.1%. May 20, 2008

Billions of present value dollars as of 1-1-2008
Table 1b.c IA Contributions, OASI Benefit Changes, & Total Unified Budget Effect

Expected Yield: Ryan Proposal Average PSA Contribution: 5.12%

Cost to Guarantee Basic Benefit 

Combined OASI Changes, Reduction Cut in Change in Change in Cumulative Change in

Amount and PSA Benefits for PSA Participation, Contribution Annual Debt Held Transfers to TFs Annual 

 Contributed at Proposed & Net Effect for Group Rate for Unified Budget by Public for 100% TFR Unified Budget

to PSA Scheduled Levels Health Premium Annual Balance Cash Flow (EOY) (EOY) Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

Year

2009 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2010 0.0 0.0 61.3 0.0 61.3 -62.8 0.0 62.8

2011 69.4 0.0 59.7 0.0 -9.7 -54.3 0.0 -6.8

2012 71.9 0.0 57.9 0.0 -14.0 -41.3 0.0 -11.6

2013 75.1 0.0 63.7 0.0 -11.4 -30.6 0.0 -9.6

2014 78.3 0.0 69.7 0.0 -8.6 -22.5 0.0 -7.2

2015 81.3 0.0 75.6 0.0 -5.7 -17.2 0.0 -4.7

2016 84.3 0.4 82.4 0.0 -2.3 -15.2 0.0 -1.5

2017 87.2 1.1 89.3 0.0 1.0 -16.6 0.0 1.8

2018 90.1 2.0 96.6 0.0 4.5 -21.7 0.0 5.5

2019 92.6 3.2 100.6 0.0 4.7 -27.1 0.0 6.0

2020 95.0 4.3 104.9 0.0 5.5 -33.6 0.0 7.2

2021 194.6 5.5 108.9 0.0 -91.2 59.3 0.0 -91.9

2022 199.0 6.9 113.9 0.0 -92.0 155.6 0.0 -98.0

2023 203.4 8.4 119.8 0.0 -91.9 254.6 0.0 -103.2

2024 207.6 10.0 126.7 0.0 -91.0 355.6 0.0 -107.9

2025 211.8 11.8 134.3 0.0 -89.4 457.8 0.0 -111.9

2026 215.9 13.8 141.8 0.0 -87.9 561.4 0.0 -116.1

2027 220.0 16.0 150.5 0.0 -85.4 665.6 0.0 -119.5

2028 224.0 18.4 160.3 0.0 -82.1 769.3 0.0 -121.9

2029 228.2 21.0 171.3 0.0 -77.9 871.7 0.0 -123.3

2030 232.0 23.9 183.3 0.0 -72.6 971.6 0.0 -123.7

2031 353.8 27.0 196.9 0.0 -183.9 1,189.0 0.0 -243.8

2032 359.9 30.1 211.5 0.0 -178.5 1,407.1 419.7 -250.4

2033 366.1 33.3 226.4 0.0 -173.0 1,625.8 888.4 -257.1

2034 372.4 36.5 242.2 0.0 -166.7 1,844.4 1,379.7 -262.9

2035 378.9 39.7 259.2 0.0 -159.5 2,061.9 1,877.0 -267.8

2036 385.5 42.8 277.5 0.0 -150.8 2,276.9 2,379.6 -271.1

2037 392.2 45.8 297.0 0.0 -141.1 2,488.0 2,898.2 -273.2

2038 399.1 48.6 317.5 0.0 -130.3 2,694.1 3,409.3 -273.9

2039 406.2 51.2 339.5 0.0 -117.9 2,893.5 3,935.5 -272.8

2040 413.4 55.7 362.2 0.0 -107.0 3,087.5 4,476.6 -272.8

2041 561.1 60.3 386.6 0.0 -234.8 3,418.5 5,149.3 -415.1

2042 571.1 64.9 412.6 0.0 -223.4 3,747.4 5,830.6 -422.0

2043 581.3 69.4 439.9 0.0 -210.7 4,072.7 6,533.5 -427.4

2044 591.7 73.7 468.8 0.0 -196.5 4,393.0 7,229.9 -431.2

2045 602.2 77.8 499.2 0.0 -180.7 4,706.2 7,932.3 -432.9

2046 612.8 81.6 530.6 0.0 -163.8 5,011.2 8,639.4 -433.1

2047 623.5 85.2 564.3 0.0 -144.4 5,305.0 9,350.3 -430.4

2048 634.4 88.3 600.1 0.0 -122.6 5,585.0 10,063.5 -424.4

2049 645.5 90.9 638.1 0.0 -98.3 5,848.1 10,768.0 -415.2

2050 656.7 96.4 678.4 0.0 -74.6 6,094.4 11,481.5 -405.6

2051 668.0 101.7 721.9 0.0 -47.8 6,320.3 12,192.9 -391.8

2052 679.6 106.6 767.0 0.0 -19.2 6,523.3 12,893.5 -375.2

2053 691.4 111.3 813.4 0.0 10.7 6,701.5 13,587.9 -355.8

2054 703.4 115.9 861.2 0.0 42.0 6,852.7 14,281.9 -333.7

2055 715.5 119.7 910.3 0.0 75.1 6,974.1 14,977.6 -308.1

2056 727.8 122.7 960.1 0.0 109.7 7,063.6 15,662.0 -279.4

2057 740.3 124.5 1,011.7 0.0 146.9 7,117.4 16,332.7 -246.2

2058 753.1 125.6 1,064.9 0.0 186.3 7,132.2 16,987.1 -208.7

2059 766.1 125.7 1,119.5 0.0 227.7 7,104.9 17,631.0 -166.9

2060 779.3 130.7 1,175.7 0.0 265.7 7,037.7 18,262.5 -126.3

2061 792.7 135.4 1,232.8 0.0 304.6 6,928.5 18,892.8 -82.5

2062 806.4 139.7 1,291.4 0.0 345.2 6,774.3 19,506.7 -34.6

2063 820.3 143.5 1,351.1 0.0 387.2 6,572.5 20,096.6 17.3

2064 834.5 146.8 1,411.9 0.0 430.6 6,320.3 20,679.4 73.2

2065 849.0 149.4 1,474.0 0.0 475.6 6,014.4 21,279.1 133.7

2066 863.6 151.4 1,538.2 24.2 498.9 5,675.7 21,896.2 174.9

2067 878.4 152.8 1,602.2 60.1 510.9 5,314.9 22,531.2 206.3

2068 893.6 153.4 1,666.1 96.2 522.9 4,931.2 23,184.6 238.9

2069 908.9 153.2 1,730.1 132.6 535.5 4,523.4 23,857.0 273.4

2070 924.4 157.8 1,794.9 164.0 548.8 4,090.2 24,548.9 310.0

2071 940.1 162.3 1,859.4 194.4 562.6 3,630.2 25,260.8 348.6

2072 956.2 166.4 1,925.2 226.0 576.7 3,142.4 25,993.3 388.9

2073 972.5 170.2 1,992.1 258.3 591.1 2,625.5 26,747.1 431.2

2074 989.1 173.6 2,060.1 291.4 606.0 2,078.4 27,522.8 475.6

2075 1,005.9 176.6 2,129.0 325.3 621.3 1,499.7 28,321.0 522.1

2076 1,023.0 179.2 2,199.2 359.9 637.1 887.9 29,142.3 571.0

2077 1,040.3 181.3 2,270.2 395.2 653.4 241.6 29,987.4 622.1

2078 1,057.8 183.1 2,342.0 430.8 670.3 -440.8 30,857.0 675.8

2079 1,075.6 184.4 2,414.4 466.9 687.6 -1,160.7 31,751.9 731.9

2080 1,093.6 185.2 2,487.6 503.4 705.3 -1,919.8 32,672.7 790.7

2081 1,112.4 185.6 2,562.0 540.7 723.4 -2,719.5 33,620.2 851.9

2082 1,131.2 185.4 2,636.8 578.3 741.9 -3,561.4 34,595.2 916.0

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2008 Trustees Report. Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%. Office of the Chief Actuary

Ultimate Real PSA Yield of 5.1%. Social Security Administration

Ultimate Annuity Yield of 5.1%. May 20, 2008

Billions of constant 2008 dollars 
Table 1c OASDI Cash Flow to General Fund of the Treasury---Proposal vs. Theoretical OASDI

Expected Yield Proposal Theoretical Social Security with PAYGO Transfers

Ryan Proposal Net Amount of Cash-Flow from the OASDI Net Amount of Cash-Flow from the OASDI

Trust Funds to the General Fund of the Trust Funds to the General Fund of the

Treasury During the Year 1 Treasury During the Year 1

Percent Billions of Dollars Percent Billions of Dollars

Year of Payroll Current $ 1/1/2008 PV Const 2008 $ of Payroll Current $ 1/1/2008 PV Const 2008 $

2008 1.4 80 78 80 1.4 80 78 80

2009 1.5 88 82 86 1.5 88 82 86

2010 2.3 153 135 145 1.4 89 78 84

2011 1.1 73 62 68 1.3 84 70 77

2012 0.8 59 47 53 1.1 74 59 67

2013 0.6 48 36 42 0.9 61 46 53

2014 0.4 33 24 28 0.6 43 31 37

2015 0.2 17 11 14 0.3 24 16 19

2016 0.0 -1 -1 -1 0.0 2 1 2

2017 -0.2 -21 -13 -17 -0.3 -22 -14 -17

2018 -0.4 -42 -24 -32 -0.5 -48 -28 -36

2019 -0.7 -69 -38 -51 -0.8 -75 -41 -56

2020 -0.9 -97 -51 -70 -1.1 -105 -55 -76

2021 -2.4 -266 -131 -187 -1.4 -136 -67 -95

2022 -2.6 -303 -141 -206 -1.6 -168 -78 -114

2023 -2.8 -340 -150 -226 -1.9 -202 -89 -134

2024 -3.0 -378 -158 -244 -2.1 -237 -99 -153

2025 -3.1 -415 -164 -261 -2.3 -273 -108 -171

2026 -3.3 -454 -169 -277 -2.5 -310 -116 -189

2027 -3.4 -492 -174 -292 -2.7 -348 -123 -207

2028 -3.5 -531 -177 -306 -2.9 -388 -129 -224

2029 -3.6 -568 -179 -319 -3.1 -429 -135 -241

2030 -3.6 -602 -179 -329 -3.2 -469 -140 -256

2031 -4.9 -855 -241 -454 -3.3 -508 -143 -270

2032 -4.9 -893 -238 -462 -3.5 -547 -146 -283

2033 -4.9 -929 -234 -467 -3.5 -585 -147 -294

2034 -4.8 -960 -228 -470 -3.6 -620 -147 -303

2035 -4.8 -988 -222 -470 -3.6 -653 -147 -311

2036 -4.7 -1,012 -215 -469 -3.6 -686 -146 -318

2037 -4.5 -1,032 -207 -465 -3.7 -719 -144 -324

2038 -4.4 -1,046 -199 -458 -3.6 -749 -142 -328

2039 -4.2 -1,054 -189 -449 -3.6 -777 -139 -331

2040 -4.1 -1,062 -180 -440 -3.6 -804 -136 -333

2041 -5.2 -1,413 -227 -570 -3.6 -831 -133 -335

2042 -5.0 -1,428 -217 -560 -3.5 -858 -130 -337

2043 -4.8 -1,439 -206 -549 -3.5 -887 -127 -338

2044 -4.6 -1,445 -196 -536 -3.4 -916 -124 -340

2045 -4.4 -1,448 -186 -523 -3.4 -947 -121 -342

2046 -4.2 -1,447 -175 -508 -3.4 -981 -119 -345

2047 -4.0 -1,440 -165 -492 -3.4 -1,017 -116 -347

2048 -3.8 -1,424 -154 -473 -3.3 -1,055 -114 -351

2049 -3.6 -1,400 -143 -453 -3.3 -1,096 -112 -354

2050 -3.4 -1,378 -133 -434 -3.3 -1,141 -110 -359

2051 -3.2 -1,347 -123 -412 -3.3 -1,190 -109 -364

2052 -2.9 -1,309 -113 -389 -3.3 -1,244 -108 -370

2053 -2.7 -1,265 -103 -366 -3.3 -1,302 -106 -377

2054 -2.5 -1,215 -94 -342 -3.3 -1,364 -105 -384

2055 -2.3 -1,157 -85 -317 -3.3 -1,431 -105 -392

2056 -2.0 -1,092 -75 -291 -3.4 -1,504 -104 -401

2057 -1.8 -1,014 -66 -263 -3.4 -1,580 -103 -410

2058 -1.6 -923 -57 -233 -3.4 -1,661 -103 -419

2059 -1.3 -817 -48 -200 -3.4 -1,745 -102 -428

2060 -1.1 -721 -40 -172 -3.5 -1,834 -101 -438

2061 -0.9 -615 -32 -143 -3.5 -1,927 -100 -447

2062 -0.7 -497 -24 -112 -3.5 -2,026 -100 -457

2063 -0.5 -366 -17 -80 -3.5 -2,129 -99 -468

2064 -0.3 -222 -10 -48 -3.6 -2,237 -99 -478

2065 -0.1 -65 -3 -14 -3.6 -2,353 -98 -489

2066 0.0 -10 0 -2 -3.6 -2,477 -98 -501

2067 0.0 -10 0 -2 -3.6 -2,607 -97 -513

2068 0.0 -11 0 -2 -3.7 -2,744 -97 -525

2069 0.0 -11 0 -2 -3.7 -2,888 -96 -537

2070 0.0 -11 0 -2 -3.7 -3,042 -96 -551

2071 0.0 -12 0 -2 -3.8 -3,206 -95 -565

2072 0.0 -13 0 -2 -3.8 -3,378 -95 -579

2073 0.0 -13 0 -2 -3.8 -3,560 -95 -593

2074 0.0 -14 0 -2 -3.9 -3,752 -94 -608

2075 0.0 -14 0 -2 -3.9 -3,954 -94 -623

2076 0.0 -15 0 -2 -4.0 -4,168 -94 -639

2077 0.0 -16 0 -2 -4.0 -4,394 -93 -656

2078 0.0 -16 0 -2 -4.0 -4,633 -93 -673

2079 0.0 -17 0 -2 -4.1 -4,886 -93 -690

2080 0.0 -18 0 -2 -4.1 -5,152 -92 -708

2081 0.0 -19 0 -3 -4.2 -5,432 -92 -726

2082 0.0 -19 0 -3 -4.2 -5,727 -92 -744

Total 2008-82 -6,125 -6,551

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2008 Trustees Report. 

1 Equals net investment in special Treasury Bonds by the Trust Funds Office of the Chief Actuary

less the Amount of General Fund transfers specified in the proposal or in the theoretical Social Security Administration

plan (PAYGO Transfers) May 20, 2008
Table 1d Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Assets / Unfunded Obligation PSA Participation: 100%

Expected Yield Average PSA Contribution: 5.12%

Ryan Proposal Present Law OASDI Basic Benefit Cost to 

Trust Fund Assets Changes, Reduction Guarantee OASI Cut in Proposal OASDI

or if Negative, for PSA Participation, Amount and PSA Benefits Contribution General Total Change Trust Fund Assets/

Unfunded Obligation & Net Effect for Group Contributed at Proposed Rate for Revenue Through Unfunded Obligation

Through EOY Health Premium to PSA Scheduled Levels Annual Balance Transfers End of Year Through EOY

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)=(2)-(3)-(4)-(5)+(6) (8)=(1)+(7)

Year

2009 2,397.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,397.3

2010 2,475.3 57.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 57.0 2,532.3

2011 2,545.3 54.3 63.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 48.2 2,593.6

2012 2,604.4 51.5 63.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.8 2,640.2

2013 2,650.1 55.3 65.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.9 2,676.0

2014 2,680.9 59.0 66.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.6 2,699.5

2015 2,696.8 62.5 67.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.9 2,710.7

2016 2,697.9 66.4 68.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 12.0 2,709.9

2017 2,684.0 70.1 68.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 12.7 2,696.8

2018 2,656.2 73.9 69.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 16.1 2,672.4

2019 2,614.6 74.9 69.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 19.6 2,634.3

2020 2,559.7 76.0 68.8 3.1 0.0 0.0 23.7 2,583.3

2021 2,492.4 76.7 137.1 3.9 0.0 0.0 -40.6 2,451.8

2022 2,413.9 78.0 136.3 4.7 0.0 0.0 -103.6 2,310.3

2023 2,324.9 79.8 135.4 5.6 0.0 0.0 -164.8 2,160.1

2024 2,226.2 81.9 134.3 6.5 0.0 0.0 -223.6 2,002.5

2025 2,118.5 84.4 133.1 7.4 0.0 0.0 -279.8 1,838.7

2026 2,003.0 86.7 131.9 8.5 0.0 0.0 -333.5 1,669.5

2027 1,880.2 89.4 130.6 9.5 0.0 0.0 -384.2 1,495.9

2028 1,750.7 92.5 129.3 10.6 0.0 0.0 -431.6 1,319.1

2029 1,615.6 96.0 127.9 11.8 0.0 0.0 -475.3 1,140.4

2030 1,476.0 99.9 126.4 13.0 0.0 0.0 -514.8 961.2

2031 1,332.9 104.3 187.4 14.3 0.0 0.0 -612.2 720.7

2032 1,187.2 108.8 185.2 15.5 0.0 210.0 -494.1 693.1

2033 1,040.1 113.2 183.1 16.7 0.0 222.0 -358.6 681.5

2034 892.8 117.7 181.0 17.8 0.0 220.0 -219.6 673.1

2035 745.9 122.4 179.0 18.8 0.0 210.0 -84.9 661.0

2036 600.0 127.4 177.0 19.7 0.0 200.0 45.8 645.8

2037 455.7 132.5 175.0 20.4 0.0 195.0 177.9 633.5

2038 313.5 137.6 173.0 21.1 0.0 180.0 301.4 614.9

2039 174.0 143.0 171.1 21.6 0.0 175.0 426.7 600.7

2040 37.5 148.3 169.3 22.8 0.0 170.0 552.9 590.4

2041 -95.8 153.8 223.2 24.0 0.0 210.0 669.5 573.7

2042 -226.0 159.5 220.8 25.1 0.0 200.0 783.1 557.2

2043 -353.1 165.3 218.4 26.1 0.0 195.0 899.0 545.9

2044 -477.2 171.2 216.1 26.9 0.0 180.0 1,007.2 530.0

2045 -598.6 177.2 213.7 27.6 0.0 170.0 1,113.0 514.4

2046 -717.4 183.0 211.3 28.2 0.0 160.0 1,216.5 499.1

2047 -833.9 189.1 209.0 28.5 0.0 150.0 1,318.1 484.3

2048 -948.1 195.5 206.6 28.8 0.0 140.0 1,418.2 470.1

2049 -1,060.3 202.0 204.3 28.8 0.0 127.0 1,514.1 453.8

2050 -1,170.7 208.7 202.0 29.6 0.0 120.0 1,611.1 440.4

2051 -1,279.6 215.8 199.7 30.4 0.0 110.0 1,706.8 427.3

2052 -1,387.1 222.8 197.4 31.0 0.0 98.0 1,799.2 412.1

2053 -1,493.5 229.7 195.2 31.4 0.0 88.0 1,890.3 396.7

2054 -1,598.9 236.3 193.0 31.8 0.0 80.0 1,981.8 382.8

2055 -1,703.5 242.7 190.8 31.9 0.0 73.0 2,074.8 371.3

2056 -1,807.3 248.8 188.6 31.8 0.0 63.0 2,166.2 358.9

2057 -1,910.5 254.8 186.4 31.4 0.0 53.0 2,256.2 345.7

2058 -2,013.0 260.6 184.3 30.7 0.0 43.0 2,344.8 331.8

2059 -2,114.8 266.3 182.2 29.9 0.0 35.0 2,433.9 319.1

2060 -2,216.0 271.7 180.1 30.2 0.0 27.0 2,522.3 306.3

2061 -2,316.5 276.9 178.0 30.4 0.0 22.0 2,612.7 296.3

2062 -2,416.3 281.9 176.0 30.5 0.0 14.0 2,702.1 285.8

2063 -2,515.5 286.6 174.0 30.4 0.0 5.0 2,789.2 273.7

2064 -2,614.0 291.1 172.0 30.3 0.0 0.0 2,878.0 263.9

2065 -2,712.0 295.3 170.1 29.9 0.0 0.0 2,973.2 261.2

2066 -2,809.5 299.5 168.1 29.5 4.7 0.0 3,070.4 260.8

2067 -2,906.6 303.2 166.2 28.9 11.4 0.0 3,167.0 260.5

2068 -3,003.1 306.4 164.3 28.2 17.7 0.0 3,263.2 260.1

2069 -3,099.1 309.2 162.4 27.4 23.7 0.0 3,358.9 259.7

2070 -3,194.8 311.7 160.5 27.4 28.5 0.0 3,454.2 259.4

2071 -3,290.1 313.8 158.7 27.4 32.8 0.0 3,549.1 259.0

2072 -3,385.0 315.8 156.8 27.3 37.1 0.0 3,643.7 258.6

2073 -3,479.6 317.5 155.0 27.1 41.2 0.0 3,737.9 258.3

2074 -3,573.8 319.1 153.2 26.9 45.1 0.0 3,831.7 258.0

2075 -3,667.6 320.5 151.4 26.6 49.0 0.0 3,925.2 257.6

2076 -3,761.2 321.7 149.6 26.2 52.7 0.0 4,018.4 257.3

2077 -3,854.4 322.7 147.9 25.8 56.2 0.0 4,111.3 257.0

2078 -3,947.3 323.6 146.1 25.3 59.5 0.0 4,203.9 256.6

2079 -4,039.9 324.2 144.4 24.8 62.7 0.0 4,296.2 256.3

2080 -4,132.3 324.6 142.7 24.2 65.7 0.0 4,388.3 256.0

2081 -4,224.3 324.9 141.0 23.5 68.6 0.0 4,480.0 255.7

2082 -4,316.0 324.9 139.4 22.8 71.3 0.0 4,571.4 255.4

Total 2008-2082 13,891.2 11,273.7 1,463.1 727.7 4,145.0

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2008 Trustees Report. 

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%. Office of the Chief Actuary

Ultimate Real PSA Yield of 5.1%. Social Security Administration

Ultimate Annuity Yield of 5.1%. May 20, 2008

(Billions of $, Present Value on 1-1-2008)
Table 1e Proposal --Specified and Total General Fund Transfers to the OASDI Trust Funds

Expected Yield

Ryan Proposal

Payroll Tax Increase in Net Change Net Change Billion of Percent of 

Revenue for Benefits Due to in OASDI in OASDI Annual Cumulative PV $ Percent Taxable 

GHP Covering GHP Cash Flow Cash Flow Amount EOY 1/1/2008 of GDP Payroll 

(1) (2) (3) = (1) + (2) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

Year Current Dollars

2009 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2010 57.1 0.0 57.1 64.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2011 54.4 0.0 54.4 64.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2012 51.6 0.1 51.5 64.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2013 55.7 0.3 55.4 73.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2014 59.6 0.5 59.1 82.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2015 63.4 0.8 62.6 91.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2016 67.0 1.1 65.9 101.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2017 70.5 1.5 69.0 112.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2018 73.9 2.0 71.9 123.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2019 74.2 2.6 71.7 130.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2020 74.5 3.2 71.3 136.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2021 74.7 4.0 70.7 143.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2022 74.9 4.8 70.1 150.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2023 75.0 5.7 69.3 157.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2024 75.0 6.6 68.4 164.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2025 75.1 7.6 67.5 171.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2026 75.2 8.7 66.4 178.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2027 75.2 9.9 65.3 185.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2028 75.2 11.1 64.1 192.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2029 75.2 12.4 62.9 199.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2030 75.2 13.6 61.6 206.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2031 75.2 14.9 60.3 214.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2032 75.3 16.1 59.1 222.2 210.0 210.0 210.0 1.8 4.4

2033 75.3 17.3 58.0 230.5 222.0 432.0 222.0 1.9 4.7

2034 75.3 18.5 56.8 239.1 220.0 652.0 220.0 1.9 4.7

2035 75.3 19.6 55.8 248.1 210.0 862.0 210.0 1.9 4.5

2036 75.3 20.6 54.7 257.5 200.0 1,062.0 200.0 1.8 4.3

2037 75.3 21.6 53.7 267.5 195.0 1,257.0 195.0 1.8 4.3

2038 75.3 22.5 52.8 278.2 180.0 1,437.0 180.0 1.7 4.0

2039 75.3 23.3 52.0 289.6 175.0 1,612.0 175.0 1.6 3.9

2040 75.3 24.1 51.2 301.8 170.0 1,782.0 170.0 1.6 3.9

2041 75.3 24.8 50.5 314.8 210.0 1,992.0 210.0 2.0 4.8

2042 75.2 25.4 49.9 328.8 200.0 2,192.0 200.0 1.9 4.6

2043 75.2 25.9 49.3 343.7 195.0 2,387.0 195.0 1.9 4.6

2044 75.2 26.4 48.8 359.7 180.0 2,567.0 180.0 1.8 4.3

2045 75.1 26.9 48.3 376.7 170.0 2,737.0 170.0 1.7 4.1

2046 75.0 27.2 47.8 394.9 160.0 2,897.0 160.0 1.6 3.9

2047 74.9 27.5 47.5 414.7 150.0 3,047.0 150.0 1.5 3.7

2048 74.8 27.6 47.2 436.3 140.0 3,187.0 140.0 1.4 3.5

2049 74.7 27.7 47.0 459.7 127.0 3,314.0 127.0 1.3 3.2

2050 74.6 27.7 46.9 485.0 120.0 3,434.0 120.0 1.3 3.0

2051 74.4 27.5 46.9 512.6 110.0 3,544.0 110.0 1.2 2.8

2052 74.3 27.4 46.9 542.7 98.0 3,642.0 98.0 1.1 2.5

2053 74.1 27.1 47.0 575.1 88.0 3,730.0 88.0 1.0 2.3

2054 74.0 26.8 47.1 610.1 80.0 3,810.0 80.0 0.9 2.1

2055 73.8 26.5 47.3 647.6 73.0 3,883.0 73.0 0.8 2.0

2056 73.6 26.1 47.5 687.7 63.0 3,946.0 63.0 0.7 1.7

2057 73.4 25.7 47.7 731.1 53.0 3,999.0 53.0 0.6 1.5

2058 73.2 25.2 48.0 777.9 43.0 4,042.0 43.0 0.5 1.2

2059 73.0 24.7 48.3 828.3 35.0 4,077.0 35.0 0.4 1.0

2060 72.8 24.2 48.7 882.4 27.0 4,104.0 27.0 0.3 0.8

2061 72.6 23.6 49.0 940.2 22.0 4,126.0 22.0 0.3 0.6

2062 72.4 23.0 49.4 1,002.8 14.0 4,140.0 14.0 0.2 0.4

2063 72.2 22.3 49.8 1,069.8 5.0 4,145.0 5.0 0.1 0.1

2064 72.0 21.7 50.3 1,141.3 4,145.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2065 71.8 21.1 50.7 1,217.6 4,145.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2066 71.5 20.4 51.1 1,299.0 4,145.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2067 71.3 19.7 51.5 1,384.8 4,145.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2068 71.0 19.1 51.9 1,475.3 4,145.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2069 70.8 18.5 52.2 1,570.7 4,145.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2070 70.5 18.0 52.5 1,671.0 4,145.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2071 70.2 17.4 52.8 1,776.3 4,145.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2072 70.0 16.9 53.1 1,888.7 4,145.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2073 69.7 16.4 53.3 2,007.6 4,145.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2074 69.4 15.9 53.6 2,133.1 4,145.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2075 69.2 15.4 53.8 2,265.8 4,145.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2076 68.9 14.9 54.0 2,405.8 4,145.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2077 68.6 14.4 54.2 2,553.5 4,145.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2078 68.3 13.9 54.3 2,708.8 4,145.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2079 68.0 13.5 54.5 2,872.4 4,145.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2080 67.6 13.1 54.6 3,044.8 4,145.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2081 67.3 12.7 54.7 3,227.3 4,145.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2082 67.0 12.3 54.8 3,418.7 4,145.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total 2008-2082 5,232.9 1,207.5 4,025.3 4,145.0

Office of the Chief Actuary

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2008 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration

May 20, 2008

Annual General Revenue Transfers

(Billions of $, Present Value on 1-1-2008) (Billions of $, Present Value on 1-1-2008)

Revenue and Benefits from Coverage of Group Health Premiums (GHP) General Revenue Transfers 

for 100% Trust Fund Ratio

for 100% Trust Fund Ratio
Table 1f Components of Cash Flow from the Trust Funds to the General Fund of the Treasury 

Expected Yield Cash Flow Due to Cash Flow for Cash Flow for

Ryan Proposal Total Cash Net Specified Net Purchase Cash Flow Due to Net Purchase

Flow to the Transfers under (Redemption) Total Cash Net Specified (Redemption)

General Fund the Proposal of Treasury Flow to the Transfers under of Treasury

Table 1c, col (3) Table 1e, col (5) Securities) General Fund the Proposal Securities)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

Year

2008 78 0 78 80 0 80

2010 82 0 82 86 0 86

2011 135 0 135 145 0 145

2012 62 0 62 68 0 68

2013 47 0 47 53 0 53

2014 36 0 36 42 0 42

2015 24 0 24 28 0 28

2016 11 0 11 14 0 14

2017 -1 0 -1 -1 0 -1

2018 -13 0 -13 -17 0 -17

2019 -24 0 -24 -32 0 -32

2020 -38 0 -38 -51 0 -51

2021 -51 0 -51 -70 0 -70

2022 -131 0 -131 -187 0 -187

2023 -141 0 -141 -206 0 -206

2024 -150 0 -150 -226 0 -226

2025 -158 0 -158 -244 0 -244

2026 -164 0 -164 -261 0 -261

2027 -169 0 -169 -277 0 -277

2028 -174 0 -174 -292 0 -292

2029 -177 0 -177 -306 0 -306

2030 -179 0 -179 -319 0 -319

2031 -179 0 -179 -329 0 -329

2032 -241 0 -241 -454 0 -454

2033 -238 -210 -28 -462 -408 -53

2034 -234 -222 -12 -467 -444 -23

2035 -228 -220 -8 -470 -453 -17

2036 -222 -210 -12 -470 -445 -26

2037 -215 -200 -15 -469 -436 -33

2038 -207 -195 -12 -465 -437 -28

2039 -199 -180 -19 -458 -415 -43

2040 -189 -175 -14 -449 -415 -34

2041 -180 -170 -10 -440 -415 -25

2042 -227 -210 -17 -570 -528 -42

2043 -217 -200 -17 -560 -517 -43

2044 -206 -195 -11 -549 -519 -30

2045 -196 -180 -16 -536 -493 -44

2046 -186 -170 -16 -523 -479 -44

2047 -175 -160 -15 -508 -464 -44

2048 -165 -150 -15 -492 -448 -44

2049 -154 -140 -14 -473 -430 -43

2050 -143 -127 -16 -453 -401 -52

2051 -133 -120 -13 -434 -390 -43

2052 -123 -110 -13 -412 -368 -44

2053 -113 -98 -15 -389 -337 -52

2054 -103 -88 -15 -366 -312 -54

2055 -94 -80 -14 -342 -292 -51

2056 -85 -73 -12 -317 -274 -43

2057 -75 -63 -12 -291 -243 -48

2058 -66 -53 -13 -263 -210 -52

2059 -57 -43 -14 -233 -176 -57

2060 -48 -35 -13 -200 -147 -53

2061 -40 -27 -13 -172 -117 -55

2062 -32 -22 -10 -143 -98 -45

2063 -24 -14 -10 -112 -64 -48

2064 -17 -5 -12 -80 -24 -57

2065 -10 0 -10 -48 0 -48

2066 -3 0 -3 -14 0 -14

2067 0 0 0 -2 0 -2

2068 0 0 0 -2 0 -2

2069 0 0 0 -2 0 -2

2070 0 0 0 -2 0 -2

2071 0 0 0 -2 0 -2

2072 0 0 0 -2 0 -2

2073 0 0 0 -2 0 -2

2074 0 0 0 -2 0 -2

2075 0 0 0 -2 0 -2

2076 0 0 0 -2 0 -2

2077 0 0 0 -2 0 -2

2078 0 0 0 -2 0 -2

2079 0 0 0 -2 0 -2

2080 0 0 0 -2 0 -2

2081 0 0 0 -2 0 -2

2082 0 0 0 -3 0 -3

Office of the Chief Actuary

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2008 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration

May 20, 2008

(Billions of $, Present Value on 1-1-2008) (Billions of Constant 2008 dollars)
Table 2 - Ryan Proposal: Social Security Personal Savings Guarantee and Prosperity Act of 2008

Low/Risk-Adjusted Yield Progressive Price Indexing PSA Participation: 100%

PSA Contribution : Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%. starts in 2016 for those Average PSA Contribution: 5.12%

8/4% in 2041; 2/1% in 2011; Ultimate Real PSA Yield of 2.65%. under 55 on 1-1-09

4/2% in 2021; 6/3% in 2031 Ultimate Annuity Yield of 2.65%.

Cost Income Annual TFR

General 

Revenue Cut for Annual Redirected

Year Rate Rate Balance 1-1-yr Transfers1 Change in Rate Net Rate2 Balance to PSA

2008 11.20 12.77 1.57 359 12.40 0.00

2009 11.26 12.81 1.54 369 12.40 0.00

2010 10.48 12.79 2.31 378 12.40 0.00

2011 10.67 11.73 1.06 395 -1.08 11.32 1.08

2012 10.92 11.73 0.81 399 -0.02 11.30 1.10

2013 11.11 11.74 0.63 399 -0.02 11.28 1.12

2014 11.31 11.73 0.42 398 -0.02 11.26 1.14

2015 11.51 11.73 0.21 395 -0.02 11.24 1.16

2016 11.73 11.73 0.00 391 -0.02 11.22 1.18

2017 11.95 11.73 -0.22 385 -0.02 11.20 1.20

2018 12.16 11.73 -0.42 379 -0.01 11.19 1.21

2019 12.42 11.74 -0.68 371 -0.01 11.18 1.22

2020 12.66 11.74 -0.92 362 -0.01 11.17 1.23

2021 12.90 10.51 -2.39 352 -1.25 9.92 2.48

2022 13.12 10.51 -2.61 333 -0.02 9.90 2.50

2023 13.32 10.51 -2.81 312 -0.01 9.89 2.51

2024 13.50 10.51 -2.99 291 -0.01 9.87 2.53

2025 13.66 10.51 -3.16 270 -0.01 9.87 2.53

2026 13.82 10.51 -3.31 248 -0.01 9.86 2.54

2027 13.96 10.52 -3.44 225 -0.01 9.85 2.55

2028 14.08 10.52 -3.56 202 -0.01 9.85 2.55

2029 14.17 10.52 -3.65 178 0.00 9.84 2.56

2030 14.24 10.53 -3.71 154 0.00 9.84 2.56

2031 14.27 9.76 -4.51 130 -1.28 8.56 3.84

2032 14.28 14.13 -0.16 100 4.87 0.00 8.56 3.84

2033 14.27 14.08 -0.19 100 4.82 0.00 8.56 3.84

2034 14.23 13.92 -0.31 100 4.67 0.00 8.56 3.84

2035 14.16 13.97 -0.19 100 4.72 0.00 8.56 3.84

2036 14.08 13.81 -0.27 100 4.56 0.00 8.56 3.84

2037 13.97 13.63 -0.34 100 4.39 0.00 8.56 3.84

2038 13.84 13.68 -0.17 100 4.44 0.00 8.56 3.84

2039 13.69 13.38 -0.31 100 4.15 0.00 8.56 3.84

2040 13.55 13.20 -0.35 100 3.97 0.00 8.56 3.84

2041 13.39 13.10 -0.29 100 5.16 -1.28 7.28 5.12

2042 13.22 12.91 -0.31 100 4.99 0.00 7.28 5.12

2043 13.05 12.73 -0.33 100 4.81 0.00 7.28 5.12

2044 12.88 12.53 -0.34 100 4.62 0.00 7.28 5.12

2045 12.70 12.46 -0.24 100 4.55 0.00 7.28 5.12

2046 12.52 12.13 -0.39 100 4.24 0.00 7.28 5.12

2047 12.34 12.05 -0.29 100 4.17 0.00 7.28 5.12

2048 12.14 11.84 -0.30 100 3.96 0.00 7.28 5.12

2049 11.94 11.62 -0.32 100 3.76 0.00 7.28 5.12

2050 11.75 11.40 -0.35 100 3.55 0.00 7.28 5.12

2051 11.55 11.18 -0.37 100 3.33 0.00 7.28 5.12

2052 11.34 11.08 -0.27 100 3.24 0.00 7.28 5.12

2053 11.15 10.84 -0.31 100 3.02 0.00 7.28 5.12

2054 10.95 10.60 -0.35 100 2.79 0.00 7.28 5.12

2055 10.76 10.41 -0.35 100 2.60 0.00 7.28 5.12

2056 10.57 10.24 -0.33 100 2.44 0.00 7.28 5.12

2057 10.37 10.12 -0.25 100 2.33 0.00 7.28 5.12

2058 10.17 9.85 -0.31 100 2.08 0.00 7.28 5.12

2059 9.96 9.64 -0.32 100 1.88 0.00 7.28 5.12

2060 9.77 9.46 -0.31 100 1.71 0.00 7.28 5.12

2061 9.58 9.32 -0.26 100 1.58 0.00 7.28 5.12

2062 9.39 9.04 -0.35 100 1.31 0.00 7.28 5.12

2063 9.20 8.90 -0.30 100 1.18 0.00 7.28 5.12

2064 9.01 8.75 -0.26 100 1.04 0.00 7.28 5.12

2065 8.82 8.54 -0.27 100 0.84 0.00 7.28 5.12

2066 8.62 8.36 -0.26 100 0.67 0.00 7.28 5.12

2067 8.43 8.14 -0.29 100 0.46 0.00 7.28 5.12

2068 8.25 7.98 -0.27 100 0.31 0.00 7.28 5.12

2069 8.08 7.82 -0.26 100 0.16 0.00 7.28 5.12

2070 7.92 7.68 -0.24 100 0.03 0.00 7.28 5.12

2071 7.78 7.64 -0.13 100 0.00 7.28 5.12

2072 7.63 7.63 0.00 101 -0.01 7.27 0.01 5.12

2073 7.48 7.48 0.00 104 -0.14 7.13 0.15 5.12

2074 7.33 7.33 0.00 107 -0.14 6.99 0.29 5.12

2075 7.18 7.18 0.00 110 -0.14 6.85 0.43 5.12

2076 7.04 7.04 0.00 114 -0.14 6.71 0.57 5.12

2077 6.89 6.89 0.00 117 -0.14 6.58 0.70 5.12

2078 6.75 6.75 0.00 121 -0.14 6.44 0.84 5.12

2079 6.60 6.60 0.00 125 -0.13 6.31 0.97 5.12

2080 6.46 6.46 0.00 129 -0.13 6.17 1.11 5.12

2081 6.33 6.33 0.00 133 -0.13 6.04 1.24 5.12

2082 6.19 6.19 0.00 138 -0.13 5.92 1.36 5.12

2083 6.06 6.06 0.00 142 -0.12 5.79 1.49 5.12

Summarized OASDI

Actuarial Change in 

Cost Rate Income Rate Balance Actuarial Balance Guarantee that PSA plus OASDI benefit is at least 

2008 - 2082 11.54 11.57 0.02 1.72 as much as proposed scheduled benefits

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2008 Trustees Report. 

All values are expressed as percents of taxable payroll, except TFR. Office of the Actuary 1

 Amounts needed to maintain 100 percent Trust Fund Ratio Social Security Administration 2

 Net payroll tax rate to the Trust Funds; reduced by amount redirected for IA contribution, and cut for annual balance May 20, 2008

 OASDI "Effective" 

Contribution Rate

OASDI Contribution Rate
Table 2a Proposal General Fund Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Assets, and Theoretical OASDI Assets

Low/Risk-Adjusted Yield

Ryan Proposal OASDI

Accumulated Trust Fund PSA

Annual as of Annual Assets at Assets at Without General With Plan General 

Amounts End of Year Amounts End of Year End of Year1 GDP Fund Transfers Fund Transfers

Calendar (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

Year PV as of 1-1-2008 Billions of Constant 2008 Dollars

2008 0 0 0 2,435 0 14,445 2,435 2,435

0 0 0 0 2,583 0 14,793 2,583 2,583

0 0 0 0 2,790 0 15,135 2,727 2,727

0 0 0 0 2,923 71 15,451 2,869 2,869

0 0 0 0 3,046 146 15,768 3,005 3,005

0 0 0 0 3,162 226 16,093 3,132 3,132

0 0 0 0 3,270 312 16,416 3,247 3,247

0 0 0 0 3,366 402 16,724 3,349 3,349

0 0 0 0 3,452 498 17,042 3,437 3,437

0 0 0 0 3,526 598 17,363 3,510 3,510

0 0 0 0 3,588 703 17,682 3,568 3,568

0 0 0 0 3,633 813 18,001 3,609 3,609

0 0 0 0 3,661 928 18,322 3,632 3,632

0 0 0 0 3,572 1,147 18,644 3,637 3,637

0 0 0 0 3,460 1,376 18,968 3,625 3,625

0 0 0 0 3,326 1,614 19,295 3,592 3,592

0 0 0 0 3,168 1,860 19,629 3,540 3,540

0 0 0 0 2,988 2,115 19,964 3,466 3,466

0 0 0 0 2,785 2,378 20,306 3,372 3,372

0 0 0 0 2,559 2,650 20,651 3,257 3,257

0 0 0 0 2,311 2,930 21,003 3,121 3,121

0 0 0 0 2,043 3,218 21,364 2,964 2,964

0 0 0 0 1,755 3,513 21,732 2,786 2,786

0 47 49 25 1,377 3,937 22,111 2,589 2,637

0 457 520 235 1,401 4,374 22,498 2,373 2,892

0 460 1,008 230 1,422 4,823 22,897 2,139 3,147

0 453 1,502 220 1,432 5,285 23,305 1,889 3,392

0 466 2,025 220 1,453 5,758 23,720 1,624 3,649

0 458 2,554 210 1,466 6,245 24,140 1,345 3,899

0 448 3,090 200 1,472 6,743 24,568 1,051 4,140

0 461 3,654 200 1,495 7,252 25,007 744 4,397

0 439 4,211 185 1,504 7,774 25,456 425 4,636

0 427 4,773 175 1,507 8,307 25,914 94 4,867

0 566 5,493 225 1,517 8,995 26,379 -248 5,246

0 556 6,224 215 1,524 9,700 26,852 -601 5,623

0 546 6,966 205 1,528 10,422 27,333 -966 5,999

0 534 7,717 195 1,530 11,160 27,824 -1,344 6,373

0 535 8,492 190 1,544 11,915 28,319 -1,735 6,757

0 507 9,260 175 1,540 12,685 28,818 -2,139 7,120

0 507 10,050 170 1,547 13,471 29,324 -2,559 7,491

0 491 10,847 160 1,552 14,271 29,838 -2,994 7,853

0 474 11,649 150 1,555 15,085 30,357 -3,445 8,203

0 455 12,454 140 1,553 15,913 30,882 -3,914 8,540

0 435 13,263 130 1,547 16,754 31,413 -4,402 8,861

0 430 14,090 125 1,553 17,607 31,955 -4,911 9,179

0 407 14,918 115 1,554 18,472 32,508 -5,441 9,477

0 383 15,744 105 1,548 19,348 33,069 -5,994 9,750

0 364 16,575 97 1,541 20,234 33,638 -6,571 10,004

0 347 17,412 90 1,535 21,131 34,213 -7,173 10,239

0 338 18,265 85 1,541 22,038 34,800 -7,803 10,462

0 306 19,109 75 1,536 22,954 35,397 -8,460 10,649

0 282 19,953 67 1,530 23,879 36,008 -9,146 10,808

0 260 20,799 60 1,524 24,813 36,626 -9,861 10,938

0 245 21,654 55 1,525 25,755 37,253 -10,607 11,047

0 206 22,494 45 1,510 26,705 37,893 -11,385 11,109

0 189 23,340 40 1,502 27,662 38,544 -12,196 11,144

0 170 24,192 35 1,501 28,626 39,207 -13,041 11,150

0 140 25,037 28 1,496 29,597 39,881 -13,923 11,114

0 113 25,879 22 1,492 30,575 40,563 -14,842 11,038

0 79 26,711 15 1,481 31,558 41,258 -15,799 10,912

0 54 27,542 10 1,473 32,548 41,966 -16,798 10,744

0 28 28,369 5 1,465 33,543 42,682 -17,837 10,532

0 6 29,198 1 1,461 34,543 43,406 -18,921 10,277

0 0 30,045 0 1,476 35,547 44,140 -20,051 9,994

0 0 30,916 0 1,516 36,557 44,892 -21,227 9,689

0 0 31,813 0 1,558 37,571 45,656 -22,453 9,359

0 0 32,735 0 1,601 38,591 46,430 -23,730 9,005

0 0 33,685 0 1,645 39,615 47,217 -25,059 8,625

0 0 34,661 0 1,691 40,644 48,013 -26,444 8,218

0 0 35,667 0 1,737 41,679 48,823 -27,885 7,782

0 0 36,701 0 1,785 42,718 49,641 -29,385 7,316

0 0 37,765 0 1,834 43,762 50,473 -30,947 6,818

0 0 38,860 0 1,885 44,812 51,316 -32,572 6,288

0 0 39,987 0 1,937 45,831 52,175 -34,263 5,724

0 0 41,147 0 1,991 46,891 53,047 -36,023 5,124

Total 2008-82 4,930

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2008 Trustees Report. 

1

 Including annuity assets, assuming all annuitize fully. Office of the Chief Actuary 2

 Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption Social Security Administration

 that the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury. May 20, 2008

Billions of Constant 2008 $

Theoretical Social Security 

Proposal General Fund Transfers to Maintain 100% TFR with Borrowing Authority2

Net OASDI Trust Fund Assets at EOY
Table 2b IA Contributions, OASI Benefit Changes, & Total Unified Budget Effect

Low/Risk-Adjusted Yield Average PSA Contribution: 5.12%

Ryan Proposal Cost to Guarantee Basic Benefit 

Combined OASI Changes, Reduction Cut in Change in Change in Cumulative Change in

Amount and PSA Benefits for PSA Participation, Contribution Annual Debt Held Transfers to TFs Annual 

 Contributed at Proposed & Net Effect for Group Rate for Unified Budget by Public for 100% TFR Unified Budget

to PSA Scheduled Levels Health Premium Annual Balance Cash Flow (EOY) (EOY) Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

Year

2009 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2010 0.0 0.0 57.0 0.0 57.0 -59.9 0.0 59.9

2011 63.1 0.0 54.3 0.0 -8.8 -50.7 0.0 -6.3

2012 63.9 0.0 51.5 0.0 -12.4 -37.6 0.0 -10.6

2013 65.2 0.0 55.3 0.0 -9.9 -27.2 0.0 -8.5

2014 66.3 0.0 59.0 0.0 -7.3 -19.6 0.0 -6.3

2015 67.2 0.0 62.5 0.0 -4.7 -14.6 0.0 -4.0

2016 68.0 0.5 66.4 0.0 -2.0 -12.5 0.0 -1.4

2017 68.5 1.2 70.1 0.0 0.4 -12.9 0.0 1.1

2018 69.0 2.1 73.9 0.0 2.8 -15.9 0.0 3.7

2019 69.0 3.3 74.9 0.0 2.6 -18.7 0.0 3.6

2020 68.8 4.3 76.0 0.0 2.9 -21.8 0.0 4.1

2021 137.1 5.3 76.8 0.0 -65.6 47.5 0.0 -68.2

2022 136.3 6.4 78.1 0.0 -64.6 115.8 0.0 -70.9

2023 135.4 7.5 79.9 0.0 -63.0 182.5 0.0 -73.0

2024 134.3 8.8 82.1 0.0 -61.1 247.1 0.0 -74.6

2025 133.1 10.1 84.5 0.0 -58.7 309.2 0.0 -75.6

2026 131.9 11.6 86.8 0.0 -56.6 369.1 0.0 -76.8

2027 130.6 13.0 89.6 0.0 -54.1 426.4 0.0 -77.4

2028 129.3 14.6 92.7 0.0 -51.1 480.4 0.0 -77.4

2029 127.9 16.2 96.3 0.0 -47.9 531.1 0.0 -76.9

2030 126.4 17.9 100.2 0.0 -44.2 577.8 0.0 -75.7

2031 187.4 19.6 104.5 0.0 -102.4 686.1 25.0 -139.9

2032 185.2 21.3 109.1 0.0 -97.4 789.1 260.0 -140.5

2033 183.1 23.0 113.6 0.0 -92.5 887.0 490.0 -141.0

2034 181.0 24.7 118.1 0.0 -87.6 979.7 710.0 -141.2

2035 179.0 26.4 122.8 0.0 -82.5 1,067.0 930.0 -140.8

2036 177.0 28.0 127.8 0.0 -77.1 1,148.6 1,140.0 -139.9

2037 175.0 29.5 132.9 0.0 -71.5 1,224.2 1,340.0 -138.4

2038 173.0 30.9 138.2 0.0 -65.8 1,293.8 1,540.0 -136.5

2039 171.1 32.3 143.6 0.0 -59.8 1,357.0 1,725.0 -134.0

2040 169.3 34.2 148.9 0.0 -54.6 1,414.8 1,900.0 -131.9

2041 223.2 36.2 154.5 0.0 -104.9 1,525.8 2,125.0 -188.3

2042 220.8 38.1 160.2 0.0 -98.7 1,630.2 2,340.0 -187.8

2043 218.4 40.0 166.1 0.0 -92.3 1,727.9 2,545.0 -186.8

2044 216.1 41.8 172.0 0.0 -85.9 1,818.7 2,740.0 -185.2

2045 213.7 43.5 178.0 0.0 -79.2 1,902.5 2,930.0 -183.2

2046 211.3 45.2 183.9 0.0 -72.6 1,979.3 3,105.0 -180.8

2047 209.0 46.8 190.1 0.0 -65.7 2,048.8 3,275.0 -177.7

2048 206.6 48.3 196.5 0.0 -58.4 2,110.6 3,435.0 -173.8

2049 204.3 49.7 203.1 0.0 -50.9 2,164.5 3,585.0 -169.2

2050 202.0 51.5 209.9 0.0 -43.7 2,210.7 3,725.0 -164.5

2051 199.7 53.3 217.1 0.0 -35.9 2,248.7 3,855.0 -158.8

2052 197.4 54.9 224.1 0.0 -28.3 2,278.6 3,980.0 -152.8

2053 195.2 56.5 231.0 0.0 -20.7 2,300.5 4,095.0 -146.4

2054 193.0 58.0 237.7 0.0 -13.3 2,314.5 4,200.0 -139.8

2055 190.8 59.4 244.2 0.0 -5.9 2,320.8 4,297.0 -132.8

2056 188.6 60.5 250.3 0.0 1.3 2,319.5 4,387.0 -125.5

2057 186.4 61.4 256.4 0.0 8.6 2,310.4 4,472.0 -117.7

2058 184.3 62.1 262.3 0.0 15.9 2,293.6 4,547.0 -109.5

2059 182.2 62.7 268.0 0.0 23.1 2,269.2 4,614.0 -100.9

2060 180.1 63.7 273.6 0.0 29.7 2,237.8 4,674.0 -92.6

2061 178.0 64.6 278.8 0.0 36.1 2,199.6 4,729.0 -84.1

2062 176.0 65.4 283.8 0.0 42.4 2,154.8 4,774.0 -75.4

2063 174.0 66.0 288.5 0.0 48.6 2,103.4 4,814.0 -66.4

2064 172.0 66.4 293.0 0.0 54.6 2,045.7 4,849.0 -57.2

2065 170.1 66.7 297.3 0.0 60.5 1,981.6 4,877.0 -47.8

2066 168.1 66.9 301.5 0.0 66.5 1,911.3 4,899.0 -37.9

2067 166.2 66.9 305.2 0.0 72.1 1,835.0 4,914.0 -28.2

2068 164.3 66.8 308.5 0.0 77.4 1,753.1 4,924.0 -18.4

2069 162.4 66.6 311.3 0.0 82.3 1,666.1 4,929.0 -8.7

2070 160.5 66.6 313.8 0.0 86.7 1,574.3 4,930.0 0.7

2071 158.7 66.5 315.9 0.0 90.8 1,478.3 4,930.0 10.0

2072 156.8 66.3 317.9 0.2 94.6 1,378.3 4,930.0 19.3

2073 155.0 66.0 319.6 4.4 94.2 1,278.6 4,930.0 24.3

2074 153.2 65.6 321.2 8.6 93.9 1,179.3 4,930.0 29.4

2075 151.4 65.0 322.6 12.6 93.5 1,080.4 4,930.0 34.5

2076 149.6 64.4 323.8 16.5 93.2 981.8 4,930.0 39.5

2077 147.9 63.7 324.8 20.4 92.9 883.5 4,930.0 44.6

2078 146.1 62.9 325.6 24.0 92.6 785.6 4,930.0 49.7

2079 144.4 62.0 326.2 27.5 92.3 687.9 4,930.0 54.7

2080 142.7 61.1 326.6 30.8 92.0 590.5 4,930.0 59.8

2081 141.0 60.0 326.9 34.1 91.7 493.5 4,930.0 64.8

2082 139.4 59.0 326.9 37.1 91.4 396.8 4,930.0 69.7

Total 2008-82 11,273.7 2,851.8 13,966.5 216.1

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2008 Trustees Report. Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%. Office of the Chief Actuary

Ultimate Real PSA Yield of 2.65%. Social Security Administration

Ultimate Annuity Yield of 2.65%. May 20, 2008

Billions of present value dollars as of 1-1-2008
Table 2b.c IA Contributions, OASI Benefit Changes, & Total Unified Budget Effect

Low/Risk-Adjusted Yield Average PSA Contribution: 5.12%

Ryan Proposal Cost to Guarantee Basic Benefit 

Combined OASI Changes, Reduction Cut in Change in Change in Cumulative Change in

Amount and PSA Benefits for PSA Participation, Contribution Annual Debt Held Transfers to TFs Annual 

 Contributed at Proposed & Net Effect for Group Rate for Unified Budget by Public for 100% TFR Unified Budget

to PSA Scheduled Levels Health Premium Annual Balance Cash Flow (EOY) (EOY) Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

Year

2009 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2010 0.0 0.0 61.3 0.0 61.3 -62.8 0.0 62.8

2011 69.4 0.0 59.7 0.0 -9.7 -54.3 0.0 -6.8

2012 71.9 0.0 57.9 0.0 -14.0 -41.3 0.0 -11.6

2013 75.1 0.0 63.7 0.0 -11.4 -30.6 0.0 -9.6

2014 78.3 0.0 69.7 0.0 -8.6 -22.5 0.0 -7.2

2015 81.3 0.0 75.6 0.0 -5.7 -17.2 0.0 -4.7

2016 84.3 0.6 82.4 0.0 -2.5 -15.1 0.0 -1.7

2017 87.2 1.5 89.3 0.0 0.5 -16.0 0.0 1.4

2018 90.1 2.8 96.6 0.0 3.7 -20.3 0.0 4.7

2019 92.6 4.5 100.6 0.0 3.5 -24.5 0.0 4.8

2020 95.0 5.9 104.9 0.0 4.0 -29.3 0.0 5.5

2021 194.6 7.5 109.0 0.0 -93.1 65.6 0.0 -94.1

2022 199.0 9.3 114.0 0.0 -94.3 164.4 0.0 -100.7

2023 203.4 11.3 120.0 0.0 -94.7 266.6 0.0 -106.6

2024 207.6 13.6 126.9 0.0 -94.4 371.4 0.0 -112.1

2025 211.8 16.1 134.5 0.0 -93.4 478.3 0.0 -117.0

2026 215.9 18.9 142.1 0.0 -92.7 587.5 0.0 -122.2

2027 220.0 22.0 150.8 0.0 -91.1 698.2 0.0 -126.7

2028 224.0 25.3 160.7 0.0 -88.6 809.7 0.0 -130.4

2029 228.2 28.9 171.7 0.0 -85.3 920.9 0.0 -133.3

2030 232.0 32.9 183.8 0.0 -81.0 1,031.0 0.0 -135.1

2031 353.8 37.0 197.4 0.0 -193.5 1,259.8 48.6 -256.9

2032 359.9 41.4 212.1 0.0 -189.2 1,491.0 519.6 -265.4

2033 366.1 46.1 227.1 0.0 -185.1 1,724.5 1,007.7 -274.2

2034 372.4 50.9 243.0 0.0 -180.3 1,960.0 1,502.5 -282.4

2035 378.9 55.8 260.0 0.0 -174.7 2,196.5 2,025.1 -289.9

2036 385.5 60.9 278.5 0.0 -168.0 2,433.0 2,554.4 -296.3

2037 392.2 66.1 298.0 0.0 -160.3 2,668.4 3,089.6 -301.7

2038 399.1 71.3 318.7 0.0 -151.7 2,901.9 3,653.7 -306.1

2039 406.2 76.6 340.9 0.0 -141.9 3,132.0 4,211.3 -309.1

2040 413.4 83.6 363.7 0.0 -133.4 3,360.0 4,773.1 -313.3

2041 561.1 90.9 388.3 0.0 -263.7 3,728.7 5,493.1 -460.2

2042 571.1 98.5 414.4 0.0 -255.2 4,099.3 6,224.3 -472.2

2043 581.3 106.4 441.9 0.0 -245.7 4,470.9 6,965.9 -483.3

2044 591.7 114.4 471.0 0.0 -235.1 4,842.3 7,717.2 -493.2

2045 602.2 122.7 501.6 0.0 -223.2 5,212.4 8,491.6 -501.9

2046 612.8 131.1 533.3 0.0 -210.6 5,580.1 9,259.7 -509.7

2047 623.5 139.7 567.2 0.0 -196.0 5,943.5 10,050.0 -515.4

2048 634.4 148.3 603.4 0.0 -179.4 6,300.4 10,846.6 -518.8

2049 645.5 157.0 641.7 0.0 -160.9 6,648.6 11,648.6 -519.8

2050 656.7 167.6 682.3 0.0 -142.0 6,987.4 12,454.5 -519.9

2051 668.0 178.3 726.1 0.0 -120.3 7,313.7 13,262.9 -516.6

2052 679.6 189.1 771.4 0.0 -97.3 7,625.9 14,090.1 -511.3

2053 691.4 200.1 818.2 0.0 -73.2 7,922.3 14,917.6 -504.2

2054 703.4 211.5 866.3 0.0 -48.5 8,202.0 15,743.8 -495.4

2055 715.5 222.6 915.9 0.0 -22.3 8,462.7 16,574.5 -484.2

2056 727.8 233.5 966.1 0.0 4.8 8,703.2 17,412.4 -470.9

2057 740.3 243.8 1,018.2 0.0 34.1 8,920.5 18,264.5 -454.4

2058 753.1 253.9 1,071.9 0.0 64.9 9,112.4 19,109.4 -434.9

2059 766.1 263.8 1,127.0 0.0 97.1 9,276.8 19,953.3 -412.6

2060 779.3 275.8 1,183.6 0.0 128.5 9,413.7 20,799.0 -389.6

2061 792.7 287.7 1,241.0 0.0 160.6 9,521.5 21,654.0 -364.2

2062 806.4 299.5 1,300.0 0.0 194.2 9,598.0 22,494.0 -335.7

2063 820.3 310.9 1,360.2 0.0 228.9 9,640.8 23,340.2 -304.3

2064 834.5 322.1 1,421.4 0.0 264.8 9,648.1 24,191.7 -269.8

2065 849.0 332.9 1,484.0 0.0 302.1 9,617.2 25,037.0 -231.9

2066 863.6 343.4 1,548.6 0.0 341.6 9,544.7 25,879.3 -189.5

2067 878.4 353.5 1,613.2 0.0 381.2 9,429.4 26,711.3 -144.7

2068 893.6 363.2 1,677.6 0.0 420.7 9,270.1 27,541.9 -97.5

2069 908.9 372.5 1,742.1 0.0 460.7 9,065.2 28,369.4 -47.5

2070 924.4 383.4 1,807.3 0.0 499.5 8,814.4 29,198.0 3.9

2071 940.1 394.1 1,872.0 0.0 537.9 8,516.8 30,044.8 57.5

2072 956.2 404.3 1,938.2 1.1 576.7 8,170.7 30,916.1 114.1

2073 972.5 414.0 2,005.4 27.8 591.1 7,799.7 31,812.6 148.5

2074 989.1 423.3 2,073.7 55.3 606.0 7,402.6 32,735.2 184.7

2075 1,005.9 432.0 2,143.0 83.8 621.3 6,978.3 33,684.5 222.7

2076 1,023.0 440.3 2,213.5 113.1 637.1 6,525.3 34,661.4 262.9

2077 1,040.3 448.0 2,284.8 143.2 653.4 6,042.5 35,666.6 305.1

2078 1,057.8 455.2 2,356.9 173.6 670.3 5,528.4 36,700.9 349.6

2079 1,075.6 461.9 2,429.6 204.6 687.6 4,981.5 37,765.2 396.3

2080 1,093.6 468.0 2,503.1 236.2 705.3 4,400.6 38,860.4 445.3

2081 1,112.4 473.6 2,577.8 268.5 723.4 3,784.2 39,987.4 496.5

2082 1,131.2 478.4 2,652.8 301.3 741.9 3,130.9 41,147.0 550.3

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2008 Trustees Report. Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%. Office of the Chief Actuary

Ultimate Real PSA Yield of 2.65%. Social Security Administration

Ultimate Annuity Yield of 2.65%. May 20, 2008

Billions of constant 2008 dollars 
Table 2c OASDI Cash Flow to General Fund of the Treasury---Proposal vs. Theoretical OASDI

Ryan Proposal Proposal Theoretical Social Security with PAYGO Transfers

Low/Risk- Net Amount of Cash-Flow from the OASDI Net Amount of Cash-Flow from the OASDI

Adjusted Yield Trust Funds to the General Fund of the Trust Funds to the General Fund of the

Treasury During the Year 1 Treasury During the Year 1

Percent Billions of Dollars Percent Billions of Dollars

Year of Payroll Current $ 1/1/2008 PV Const 2008 $ of Payroll Current $ 1/1/2008 PV Const 2008 $

2008 1.4 80 78 80 1.4 80 78 80

2009 1.5 88 82 86 1.5 88 82 86

2010 2.3 153 135 145 1.4 89 78 84

2011 1.1 73 62 68 1.3 84 70 77

2012 0.8 59 47 53 1.1 74 59 67

2013 0.6 48 36 42 0.9 61 46 53

2014 0.4 33 24 28 0.6 43 31 37

2015 0.2 17 11 14 0.3 24 16 19

2016 0.0 -1 -1 -1 0.0 2 1 2

2017 -0.2 -22 -13 -17 -0.3 -22 -14 -17

2018 -0.4 -43 -25 -32 -0.5 -48 -28 -36

2019 -0.7 -70 -39 -52 -0.8 -75 -41 -56

2020 -0.9 -100 -52 -72 -1.1 -105 -55 -76

2021 -2.4 -269 -133 -188 -1.4 -136 -67 -95

2022 -2.6 -306 -143 -209 -1.6 -168 -78 -114

2023 -2.8 -345 -152 -228 -1.9 -202 -89 -134

2024 -3.0 -383 -160 -247 -2.1 -237 -99 -153

2025 -3.2 -422 -166 -265 -2.3 -273 -108 -171

2026 -3.3 -462 -172 -282 -2.5 -310 -116 -189

2027 -3.5 -502 -177 -298 -2.7 -348 -123 -207

2028 -3.6 -542 -181 -313 -2.9 -388 -129 -224

2029 -3.7 -581 -183 -326 -3.1 -429 -135 -241

2030 -3.7 -617 -184 -337 -3.2 -469 -140 -256

2031 -4.5 -784 -221 -416 -3.3 -508 -143 -270

2032 -5.0 -913 -243 -472 -3.5 -547 -146 -283

2033 -5.0 -953 -240 -479 -3.5 -585 -147 -294

2034 -5.0 -988 -235 -483 -3.6 -620 -147 -303

2035 -4.9 -1,020 -229 -486 -3.6 -653 -147 -311

2036 -4.8 -1,049 -223 -486 -3.6 -686 -146 -318

2037 -4.7 -1,075 -216 -484 -3.7 -719 -144 -324

2038 -4.6 -1,095 -208 -480 -3.6 -749 -142 -328

2039 -4.5 -1,110 -199 -473 -3.6 -777 -139 -331

2040 -4.3 -1,126 -191 -467 -3.6 -804 -136 -333

2041 -5.5 -1,485 -238 -599 -3.6 -831 -133 -335

2042 -5.3 -1,509 -229 -592 -3.5 -858 -130 -337

2043 -5.1 -1,530 -219 -584 -3.5 -887 -127 -338

2044 -5.0 -1,549 -210 -575 -3.4 -916 -124 -340

2045 -4.8 -1,565 -201 -565 -3.4 -947 -121 -342

2046 -4.6 -1,580 -191 -555 -3.4 -981 -119 -345

2047 -4.5 -1,591 -182 -543 -3.4 -1,017 -116 -347

2048 -4.3 -1,595 -173 -530 -3.3 -1,055 -114 -351

2049 -4.1 -1,594 -163 -515 -3.3 -1,096 -112 -354

2050 -3.9 -1,593 -154 -501 -3.3 -1,141 -110 -359

2051 -3.7 -1,584 -145 -485 -3.3 -1,190 -109 -364

2052 -3.5 -1,571 -136 -468 -3.3 -1,244 -108 -370

2053 -3.3 -1,555 -127 -450 -3.3 -1,302 -106 -377

2054 -3.1 -1,536 -119 -433 -3.3 -1,364 -105 -384

2055 -3.0 -1,513 -110 -414 -3.3 -1,431 -105 -392

2056 -2.8 -1,486 -103 -396 -3.4 -1,504 -104 -401

2057 -2.6 -1,449 -95 -376 -3.4 -1,580 -103 -410

2058 -2.4 -1,404 -87 -354 -3.4 -1,661 -103 -419

2059 -2.2 -1,349 -79 -331 -3.4 -1,745 -102 -428

2060 -2.0 -1,296 -71 -309 -3.5 -1,834 -101 -438

2061 -1.9 -1,236 -64 -287 -3.5 -1,927 -100 -447

2062 -1.7 -1,166 -57 -263 -3.5 -2,026 -100 -457

2063 -1.5 -1,087 -51 -239 -3.5 -2,129 -99 -468

2064 -1.3 -998 -44 -213 -3.6 -2,237 -99 -478

2065 -1.1 -900 -37 -187 -3.6 -2,353 -98 -489

2066 -0.9 -787 -31 -159 -3.6 -2,477 -98 -501

2067 -0.8 -670 -25 -132 -3.6 -2,607 -97 -513

2068 -0.6 -545 -19 -104 -3.7 -2,744 -97 -525

2069 -0.4 -413 -14 -77 -3.7 -2,888 -96 -537

2070 -0.3 -284 -9 -51 -3.7 -3,042 -96 -551

2071 -0.1 -152 -5 -27 -3.8 -3,206 -95 -565

2072 0.0 -13 0 -2 -3.8 -3,378 -95 -579

2073 0.0 -13 0 -2 -3.8 -3,560 -95 -593

2074 0.0 -14 0 -2 -3.9 -3,752 -94 -608

2075 0.0 -14 0 -2 -3.9 -3,954 -94 -623

2076 0.0 -15 0 -2 -4.0 -4,168 -94 -639

2077 0.0 -16 0 -2 -4.0 -4,394 -93 -656

2078 0.0 -16 0 -2 -4.0 -4,633 -93 -673

2079 0.0 -17 0 -2 -4.1 -4,886 -93 -690

2080 0.0 -18 0 -2 -4.1 -5,152 -92 -708

2081 0.0 -19 0 -3 -4.2 -5,432 -92 -726

2082 0.0 -19 0 -3 -4.2 -5,727 -92 -744

Total 2008-82 -6,901 -6,551

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2008 Trustees Report. 

1 Equals net investment in special Treasury Bonds by the Trust Funds Office of the Chief Actuary

less the Amount of General Fund transfers specified in the proposal or in the theoretical Social Security Administration

plan (PAYGO Transfers) May 20, 2008
Table 2d Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Assets / Unfunded Obligation PSA Participation: 100%

Ryan Proposal Average PSA Contribution: 5.12%

Low/Risk- Present Law OASDI Basic Benefit Cost to 

Adjusted Yield Trust Fund Assets Changes, Reduction Guarantee OASI Cut in Proposal OASDI

or if Negative, for PSA Participation, Amount and PSA Benefits Contribution General Total Change Trust Fund Assets/

Unfunded Obligation & Net Effect for Group Contributed at Proposed Rate for Revenue Through Unfunded Obligation

Through EOY Health Premium to PSA Scheduled Levels Annual Balance Transfers End of Year Through EOY

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)=(2)-(3)-(4)-(5)+(6) (8)=(1)+(7)

Year

2009 2,397.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,397.3

2010 2,475.3 57.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 57.0 2,532.3

2011 2,545.3 54.3 63.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 48.2 2,593.6

2012 2,604.4 51.5 63.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.8 2,640.2

2013 2,650.1 55.3 65.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.9 2,676.0

2014 2,680.9 59.0 66.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.6 2,699.5

2015 2,696.8 62.5 67.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.8 2,710.7

2016 2,697.9 66.4 68.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 11.8 2,709.8

2017 2,684.0 70.1 68.5 1.2 0.0 0.0 12.2 2,696.3

2018 2,656.2 73.9 69.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 15.1 2,671.3

2019 2,614.6 74.9 69.0 3.3 0.0 0.0 17.7 2,632.4

2020 2,559.7 76.0 68.8 4.3 0.0 0.0 20.7 2,580.3

2021 2,492.4 76.8 137.1 5.3 0.0 0.0 -44.9 2,447.5

2022 2,413.9 78.1 136.3 6.4 0.0 0.0 -109.5 2,304.4

2023 2,324.9 79.9 135.4 7.5 0.0 0.0 -172.5 2,152.3

2024 2,226.2 82.1 134.3 8.8 0.0 0.0 -233.6 1,992.5

2025 2,118.5 84.5 133.1 10.1 0.0 0.0 -292.3 1,826.2

2026 2,003.0 86.8 131.9 11.6 0.0 0.0 -349.0 1,654.0

2027 1,880.2 89.6 130.6 13.0 0.0 0.0 -403.1 1,477.1

2028 1,750.7 92.7 129.3 14.6 0.0 0.0 -454.2 1,296.5

2029 1,615.6 96.3 127.9 16.2 0.0 0.0 -502.1 1,113.6

2030 1,476.0 100.2 126.4 17.9 0.0 0.0 -546.2 929.8

2031 1,332.9 104.5 187.4 19.6 0.0 25.0 -623.7 709.2

2032 1,187.2 109.1 185.2 21.3 0.0 235.0 -486.0 701.2

2033 1,040.1 113.6 183.1 23.0 0.0 230.0 -348.6 691.5

2034 892.8 118.1 181.0 24.7 0.0 220.0 -216.2 676.5

2035 745.9 122.8 179.0 26.4 0.0 220.0 -78.8 667.1

2036 600.0 127.8 177.0 28.0 0.0 210.0 54.1 654.2

2037 455.7 132.9 175.0 29.5 0.0 200.0 182.6 638.3

2038 313.5 138.2 173.0 30.9 0.0 200.0 316.8 630.3

2039 174.0 143.6 171.1 32.3 0.0 185.0 442.1 616.0

2040 37.5 148.9 169.3 34.2 0.0 175.0 562.4 600.0

2041 -95.8 154.5 223.2 36.2 0.0 225.0 682.5 586.7

2042 -226.0 160.2 220.8 38.1 0.0 215.0 798.8 572.8

2043 -353.1 166.1 218.4 40.0 0.0 205.0 911.5 558.4

2044 -477.2 172.0 216.1 41.8 0.0 195.0 1,020.6 543.4

2045 -598.6 178.0 213.7 43.5 0.0 190.0 1,131.4 532.8

2046 -717.4 183.9 211.3 45.2 0.0 175.0 1,233.8 516.4

2047 -833.9 190.1 209.0 46.8 0.0 170.0 1,338.1 504.2

2048 -948.1 196.5 206.6 48.3 0.0 160.0 1,439.6 491.5

2049 -1,060.3 203.1 204.3 49.7 0.0 150.0 1,538.7 478.4

2050 -1,170.7 209.9 202.0 51.5 0.0 140.0 1,635.0 464.4

2051 -1,279.6 217.1 199.7 53.3 0.0 130.0 1,729.1 449.5

2052 -1,387.1 224.1 197.4 54.9 0.0 125.0 1,825.8 438.7

2053 -1,493.5 231.0 195.2 56.5 0.0 115.0 1,920.1 426.6

2054 -1,598.9 237.7 193.0 58.0 0.0 105.0 2,011.8 412.9

2055 -1,703.5 244.2 190.8 59.4 0.0 97.0 2,102.9 399.4

2056 -1,807.3 250.3 188.6 60.5 0.0 90.0 2,194.1 386.8

2057 -1,910.5 256.4 186.4 61.4 0.0 85.0 2,287.7 377.2

2058 -2,013.0 262.3 184.3 62.1 0.0 75.0 2,378.6 365.6

2059 -2,114.8 268.0 182.2 62.7 0.0 67.0 2,468.7 353.8

2060 -2,216.0 273.6 180.1 63.7 0.0 60.0 2,558.4 342.4

2061 -2,316.5 278.8 178.0 64.6 0.0 55.0 2,649.4 333.0

2062 -2,416.3 283.8 176.0 65.4 0.0 45.0 2,736.8 320.5

2063 -2,515.5 288.5 174.0 66.0 0.0 40.0 2,825.4 309.9

2064 -2,614.0 293.0 172.0 66.4 0.0 35.0 2,914.9 300.9

2065 -2,712.0 297.3 170.1 66.7 0.0 28.0 3,003.5 291.4

2066 -2,809.5 301.5 168.1 66.9 0.0 22.0 3,092.0 282.4

2067 -2,906.6 305.2 166.2 66.9 0.0 15.0 3,179.1 272.5

2068 -3,003.1 308.5 164.3 66.8 0.0 10.0 3,266.5 263.4

2069 -3,099.1 311.3 162.4 66.6 0.0 5.0 3,353.8 254.6

2070 -3,194.8 313.8 160.5 66.6 0.0 1.0 3,441.5 246.7

2071 -3,290.1 315.9 158.7 66.5 0.0 0.0 3,532.3 242.2

2072 -3,385.0 317.9 156.8 66.3 0.2 0.0 3,626.8 241.8

2073 -3,479.6 319.6 155.0 66.0 4.4 0.0 3,721.0 241.5

2074 -3,573.8 321.2 153.2 65.6 8.6 0.0 3,814.9 241.1

2075 -3,667.6 322.6 151.4 65.0 12.6 0.0 3,908.4 240.8

2076 -3,761.2 323.8 149.6 64.4 16.5 0.0 4,001.6 240.4

2077 -3,854.4 324.8 147.9 63.7 20.4 0.0 4,094.5 240.1

2078 -3,947.3 325.6 146.1 62.9 24.0 0.0 4,187.1 239.8

2079 -4,039.9 326.2 144.4 62.0 27.5 0.0 4,279.4 239.5

2080 -4,132.3 326.6 142.7 61.1 30.8 0.0 4,371.4 239.2

2081 -4,224.3 326.9 141.0 60.0 34.1 0.0 4,463.1 238.8

2082 -4,316.0 326.9 139.4 59.0 37.1 0.0 4,554.6 238.5

Total 2008-2082 13,966.5 11,273.7 2,851.8 216.1 4,930.0

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2008 Trustees Report. 

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%. Office of the Chief Actuary

Ultimate Real PSA Yield of 2.65%. Social Security Administration

Ultimate Annuity Yield of 2.65%. May 20, 2008

(Billions of $, Present Value on 1-1-2008)
Table 2e Proposal --Specified and Total General Fund Transfers to the OASDI Trust Funds

Ryan Proposal

Low/RiskAdjusted Yield

Payroll Tax Increase in Net Change Net Change Billion of Percent of 

Revenue for Benefits Due to in OASDI in OASDI Annual Cumulative PV $ Percent Taxable 

GHP Covering GHP Cash Flow Cash Flow Amount EOY 1/1/2008 of GDP Payroll 

(1) (2) (3) = (1) + (2) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

Year Current Dollars

2009 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2010 57.1 0.0 57.1 64.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2011 54.4 0.0 54.4 64.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2012 51.6 0.1 51.5 64.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2013 55.7 0.3 55.4 73.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2014 59.6 0.5 59.1 82.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2015 63.4 0.8 62.6 91.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2016 67.0 1.1 65.9 101.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2017 70.5 1.5 69.0 112.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2018 73.9 2.0 71.9 123.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2019 74.2 2.6 71.7 130.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2020 74.5 3.2 71.3 136.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2021 74.7 4.0 70.7 143.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2022 74.9 4.8 70.1 150.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2023 75.0 5.7 69.3 157.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2024 75.0 6.6 68.4 164.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2025 75.1 7.6 67.5 171.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2026 75.2 8.7 66.4 178.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2027 75.2 9.9 65.3 185.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2028 75.2 11.1 64.1 192.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2029 75.2 12.4 62.9 199.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2030 75.2 13.6 61.6 206.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2031 75.2 14.9 60.3 214.4 25.0 25.0 25.0 0.2 0.5

2032 75.3 16.1 59.1 222.2 235.0 260.0 235.0 2.0 4.9

2033 75.3 17.3 58.0 230.5 230.0 490.0 230.0 2.0 4.8

2034 75.3 18.5 56.8 239.1 220.0 710.0 220.0 1.9 4.7

2035 75.3 19.6 55.8 248.1 220.0 930.0 220.0 2.0 4.7

2036 75.3 20.6 54.7 257.5 210.0 1,140.0 210.0 1.9 4.6

2037 75.3 21.6 53.7 267.5 200.0 1,340.0 200.0 1.8 4.4

2038 75.3 22.5 52.8 278.2 200.0 1,540.0 200.0 1.8 4.4

2039 75.3 23.3 52.0 289.6 185.0 1,725.0 185.0 1.7 4.2

2040 75.3 24.1 51.2 301.8 175.0 1,900.0 175.0 1.6 4.0

2041 75.3 24.8 50.5 314.8 225.0 2,125.0 225.0 2.1 5.2

2042 75.2 25.4 49.9 328.8 215.0 2,340.0 215.0 2.1 5.0

2043 75.2 25.9 49.3 343.7 205.0 2,545.0 205.0 2.0 4.8

2044 75.2 26.4 48.8 359.7 195.0 2,740.0 195.0 1.9 4.6

2045 75.1 26.9 48.3 376.7 190.0 2,930.0 190.0 1.9 4.6

2046 75.0 27.2 47.8 394.9 175.0 3,105.0 175.0 1.8 4.2

2047 74.9 27.5 47.5 414.7 170.0 3,275.0 170.0 1.7 4.2

2048 74.8 27.6 47.2 436.3 160.0 3,435.0 160.0 1.6 4.0

2049 74.7 27.7 47.0 459.7 150.0 3,585.0 150.0 1.6 3.8

2050 74.6 27.7 46.9 485.0 140.0 3,725.0 140.0 1.5 3.5

2051 74.4 27.5 46.9 512.6 130.0 3,855.0 130.0 1.4 3.3

2052 74.3 27.4 46.9 542.7 125.0 3,980.0 125.0 1.3 3.2

2053 74.1 27.1 47.0 575.1 115.0 4,095.0 115.0 1.3 3.0

2054 74.0 26.8 47.1 610.1 105.0 4,200.0 105.0 1.2 2.8

2055 73.8 26.5 47.3 647.6 97.0 4,297.0 97.0 1.1 2.6

2056 73.6 26.1 47.5 687.7 90.0 4,387.0 90.0 1.0 2.4

2057 73.4 25.7 47.7 731.1 85.0 4,472.0 85.0 1.0 2.3

2058 73.2 25.2 48.0 777.9 75.0 4,547.0 75.0 0.9 2.1

2059 73.0 24.7 48.3 828.3 67.0 4,614.0 67.0 0.8 1.9

2060 72.8 24.2 48.7 882.4 60.0 4,674.0 60.0 0.7 1.7

2061 72.6 23.6 49.0 940.2 55.0 4,729.0 55.0 0.7 1.6

2062 72.4 23.0 49.4 1,002.8 45.0 4,774.0 45.0 0.5 1.3

2063 72.2 22.3 49.8 1,069.8 40.0 4,814.0 40.0 0.5 1.2

2064 72.0 21.7 50.3 1,141.3 35.0 4,849.0 35.0 0.4 1.0

2065 71.8 21.1 50.7 1,217.6 28.0 4,877.0 28.0 0.4 0.8

2066 71.5 20.4 51.1 1,299.0 22.0 4,899.0 22.0 0.3 0.7

2067 71.3 19.7 51.5 1,384.8 15.0 4,914.0 15.0 0.2 0.5

2068 71.0 19.1 51.9 1,475.3 10.0 4,924.0 10.0 0.1 0.3

2069 70.8 18.5 52.2 1,570.7 5.0 4,929.0 5.0 0.1 0.2

2070 70.5 18.0 52.5 1,671.0 1.0 4,930.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2071 70.2 17.4 52.8 1,776.3 4,930.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2072 70.0 16.9 53.1 1,888.7 4,930.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2073 69.7 16.4 53.3 2,007.6 4,930.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2074 69.4 15.9 53.6 2,133.1 4,930.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2075 69.2 15.4 53.8 2,265.8 4,930.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2076 68.9 14.9 54.0 2,405.8 4,930.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2077 68.6 14.4 54.2 2,553.5 4,930.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2078 68.3 13.9 54.3 2,708.8 4,930.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2079 68.0 13.5 54.5 2,872.4 4,930.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2080 67.6 13.1 54.6 3,044.8 4,930.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2081 67.3 12.7 54.7 3,227.3 4,930.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2082 67.0 12.3 54.8 3,418.7 4,930.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total 2008-2082 5,232.9 1,207.5 4,025.3 4,930.0

Office of the Chief Actuary

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2008 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration

May 20, 2008

for 100% Trust Fund Ratio

(Billions of $, Present Value on 1-1-2008) (Billions of $, Present Value on 1-1-2008)

Annual General Revenue Transfers

Revenue and Benefits from Coverage of Group Health Premiums (GHP) General Revenue Transfers for 100% Trust Fund Ratio
Table 2f Components of Cash Flow from the Trust Funds to the General Fund of the Treasury 

Ryan Proposal Cash Flow Due to Cash Flow for Cash Flow for

Low/Risk- Total Cash Net Specified Net Purchase Cash Flow Due to Net Purchase

Adjusted Yield Flow to the Transfers under (Redemption) Total Cash Net Specified (Redemption)

General Fund the Proposal of Treasury Flow to the Transfers under of Treasury

Table 1c, col (3) Table 1e, col (5) Securities General Fund the Proposal Securities

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

Year

2008 78 0 78 80 0 80

2010 82 0 82 86 0 86

2011 135 0 135 145 0 145

2012 62 0 62 68 0 68

2013 47 0 47 53 0 53

2014 36 0 36 42 0 42

2015 24 0 24 28 0 28

2016 11 0 11 14 0 14

2017 -1 0 -1 -1 0 -1

2018 -13 0 -13 -17 0 -17

2019 -25 0 -25 -32 0 -32

2020 -39 0 -39 -52 0 -52

2021 -52 0 -52 -72 0 -72

2022 -133 0 -133 -188 0 -188

2023 -143 0 -143 -209 0 -209

2024 -152 0 -152 -228 0 -228

2025 -160 0 -160 -247 0 -247

2026 -166 0 -166 -265 0 -265

2027 -172 0 -172 -282 0 -282

2028 -177 0 -177 -298 0 -298

2029 -181 0 -181 -313 0 -313

2030 -183 0 -183 -326 0 -326

2031 -184 0 -184 -337 0 -337

2032 -221 -25 -196 -416 -47 -369

2033 -243 -235 -8 -472 -457 -16

2034 -240 -230 -10 -479 -460 -19

2035 -235 -220 -15 -483 -453 -31

2036 -229 -220 -9 -486 -466 -20

2037 -223 -210 -13 -486 -458 -28

2038 -216 -200 -16 -484 -448 -36

2039 -208 -200 -8 -480 -461 -18

2040 -199 -185 -14 -473 -439 -34

2041 -191 -175 -16 -467 -427 -39

2042 -238 -225 -13 -599 -566 -33

2043 -229 -215 -14 -592 -556 -36

2044 -219 -205 -14 -584 -546 -38

2045 -210 -195 -15 -575 -534 -41

2046 -201 -190 -11 -565 -535 -30

2047 -191 -175 -16 -555 -507 -48

2048 -182 -170 -12 -543 -507 -36

2049 -173 -160 -13 -530 -491 -39

2050 -163 -150 -13 -515 -474 -41

2051 -154 -140 -14 -501 -455 -46

2052 -145 -130 -15 -485 -435 -50

2053 -136 -125 -11 -468 -430 -37

2054 -127 -115 -12 -450 -407 -43

2055 -119 -105 -14 -433 -383 -50

2056 -110 -97 -13 -414 -364 -51

2057 -103 -90 -13 -396 -347 -49

2058 -95 -85 -10 -376 -338 -38

2059 -87 -75 -12 -354 -306 -48

2060 -79 -67 -12 -331 -282 -49

2061 -71 -60 -11 -309 -260 -50

2062 -64 -55 -9 -287 -245 -42

2063 -57 -45 -12 -263 -206 -57

2064 -51 -40 -11 -239 -189 -50

2065 -44 -35 -9 -213 -170 -44

2066 -37 -28 -9 -187 -140 -47

2067 -31 -22 -9 -159 -113 -46

2068 -25 -15 -10 -132 -79 -52

2069 -19 -10 -9 -104 -54 -50

2070 -14 -5 -9 -77 -28 -49

2071 -9 -1 -8 -51 -6 -46

2072 -5 0 -5 -27 0 -27

2073 0 0 0 -2 0 -2

2074 0 0 0 -2 0 -2

2075 0 0 0 -2 0 -2

2076 0 0 0 -2 0 -2

2077 0 0 0 -2 0 -2

2078 0 0 0 -2 0 -2

2079 0 0 0 -2 0 -2

2080 0 0 0 -2 0 -2

2081 0 0 0 -2 0 -2

2082 0 0 0 -3 0 -3

Office of the Chief Actuary

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2008 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration

May 20, 2008

(Billions of $, Present Value on 1-1-2008) (Billions of Constant 2008 dollars)