Social Security Disability Insurance 

Past Experience and Expectations: 

Applications, Incidence, and Prevalence Rates

Reasons for Change

Steve Goss, Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Allsup Webinar April 3, 2024
Social Security Disability Insurance

• Total and permanent disability

• Requires inability to engage in any Substantial Gainful Activity based 

on a medically determinable impairment expected to last at least one 

year or to result in death

• Insured status: fully insured, plus 20 out of the last 40 quarters 

• Monthly benefits are typically less than half the career average prior 

earnings level

2
Applications for 

Disability 

Benefits Remain 

Historically Low

At the peak of the last 

economic cycle in 2007, 

applications were low, but 

they increased rapidly in 

the 2007-09 recession 

from 1.5 million in 2007 to 

1.9 million in 2010.

In 2017 through 2022, 

applications have dropped 

below the 2007 level.

In 2023 applications rose 

about as expected in 

TR23.

3

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 (millions)

Social Security Disabled Worker Receipts at Disability Determination 

Services by Calendar Year: Historical and Intermediate Assumptions for 

2012 through 2023 Trustees Reports

2012TR

2017TR

2016TR

2015TR

2014TR

2013TR

2018TR 2019TR

2020TR

2021TR

2022TR 2023TR

2012TR

2017TR

2016TR

2015TR

2014TR

2013TR

2018TR 2019TR

2020TR

2021TR

2022TR 2023TR
Disability 

Incidence Rate 

Also Remains 

Historically Low

DI disabled worker 

incidence rate declined 

relatively more than 

applications since 2018, 

with staffing issues and 

increased numbers of 

applicants having to wait 

for initial DDS 

determinations.

With more adequate 

staffing, incidence (awards) 

expected to increase closer 

to past levels.

4

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

DI Age-Sex-Adjusted Incidence Rates:

Historical and Intermediate Assumptions for 2012 through 2023 Trustees Reports

2012TR

2013TR

2014TR

2015TR

2016TR

2017TR

Average 1990-2022 5.0

Ultimate Assumption 4. 8

2018TR

2019TR

2020TR

2021TR

2022TR

2023 TR
Disability Claims 

Pending 

Determination 

Pending at initial DDS has 

risen to historic level, even 

with applications at historic 

low level.

Pending appeals to ALJ 

have declined to very low 

levels.

5
Why Increase in 

Cases Pending 

Initial DDS 

Determination?

Inadequate staffing.

With a high rate of 

turnover since 2018, the 

share of state disability 

examiners in training 

(in their first year) has 

increased dramatically. 

Fully trained examiners are 

at least as productive as in 

2018.

6
How About Private LTD Experience?

• Society of Actuaries annual meeting, November 9, 2021, 

Session 5: LTD Experience Trends: Social Security and 

Private Insurance 

◦Jay Barriss (group LTD) and David Wall (individual LTD)—some 

reduction in claims after 2010, but not as much as for DI

◦ https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/presentations/ocact_20211109.pdf

• SOA private LTD incidence rate experience study through 

2022, now in progress

7
Disabled Worker 

Prevalence Rates

Will prevalence recover 

to a level above that 

seen before the 2007-09 

recession? 

The 2023 Trustees 

Report projections 

assume the incidence 

rate will ultimately rise 

to 4.8 per thousand, 

from the levels seen 

since 2016 of between 

3.0 and 4.3.

8 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Calendar year

DI Disability Prevalence Rates, 1970-2100

Gross prevalence rates

Age-sex-adjusted prevalence rates

III

III

Historical Projected

III

III
Fewer Disabled 

Worker 

Beneficiaries

Fewer now and in near 

term based on recent 

applications and 

incidence rates, with 

assumed increases 

deferred another year.

9

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032

Calendar Year

Disabled Worker Beneficiaries

In Current Payment Status at End of Year (in thousands)

2008 TR (no recession)

2022 TR

2023 TR
Primary Impairment for New Disabled Worker Entitlements at 

Ages 30-39 Has Been Consistent & Dominated by Mental Disorders

Women Men

Note: Data for 2019 and later are incomplete. 10
Primary Impairment for New Disabled Worker Entitlements at 

Ages 50-59 Has Been Increasingly Musculoskeletal

Women Men

Note: Data for 2019 and later are incomplete. 11
Reductions in Disability Applications and Number Receiving 

Benefits Have Been Similar by Age, Sex, Geography, Impairment, 

and Education; COVID Has Not Contributed Significantly

• Reasons for these reductions and future expectations?

oHealthier population?

oGreater demand for workers given the changing age distribution of the 

population?

oGreater accommodation by employers?

o More highly educated population; more automation of physical jobs?

oChanging distribution of jobs/occupations in the economy? 

oChanging nature of work and jobs? 

12
Changing 

Population Age 

Distribution:

Increase in 45-64 

from 1990 to 2010 

elevated disability.

Decrease in 25-64 

after 2010 elevated 

demand for workers.

13

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Percent of Population at Ages 25+

Age Distribution of the Population Age 25+, 1940 to 2100 (2023 TR)

25-44

45-64

65-84

85+

Boomers 

become 

25-44

Boomers 

become 

45-64

Boomers 

become 

65-84
Distribution of Workers by Occupation Has Been Changing

14

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Management, business,

and financial operations

occupations

Professional and related

occupations

Service occupations Sales and office

occupations

Natural resources,

construction, and

maintenance occupations

Production,

transportation, and

material moving

occupations

Number of Employed Workers by Major Occupation: Men + Women (in thousands)

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Employment Over Age 60 Has Been Rising as the Age 

Distribution of the Population Moves to Older Ages

15

How much of this shift is from changing demands on workers and accommodation by employers? 

Will this trend continue with further changes in the age distribution of the population?

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Ratio of Employment to Non-Institutionalized Population, Men, by Age

25-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70 and older

Start of 2008 

recession

Start of 2020 

recession

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Ratio of Employment to Non-Institutionalized Population, Women, by Age

25-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70 and older

Start of 2008 

recession

Start of 2020 

recession
Quits Rate vs. 

Ratio of 

Employment to 

Population

The elevated quits rate 

after 2020 indicated 

increased demand for 

workers. 

Will this continue as the 

changing age distribution 

decreases the share of 

adults at traditional 

working ages?

16
Employment of 

the Disabled

Employment of individuals 

self-identifying as disabled 

appears to be gradually rising 

from low rates experienced in 

2013-15.

Current rates of employment 

are at the highest levels since 

the beginning of 2008. Will 

this continue to increase or 

level out?

Note that this is self-

identification of disability by 

CPS survey respondents, so 

the definition of disability may 

greatly differ from what is 

used for the OASDI program.

17 05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45 05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Jan-08 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13 Dec-15 Dec-17 Dec-19 Dec-21 Dec-23

Unemployment rate

LFPR, employment-to-population, and "prevalence"

Disabled Employment Data: Men+Women 18-64 

Disability prevalence Disabled LFPR Disabled employ-pop ratio Disabled U/E rate 05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

Jan-08 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13 Dec-15 Dec-17 Dec-19 Dec-21 Dec-23

Unemployment rate

LFPR, employment-to-population, and "prevalence

Non-Disabled Employment Data: Men+Women 18-64 

Non-disabled LFPR Non-disabled employ-pop ratio Non-disabled U/E rate
Issues for the Future

1. Restore staffing and make other changes to reduce time for determinations

2. Will applications move back up to levels seen before 2010? Or will they remain lower 

in the future due to changes in nature of work and accommodations, given the now 

permanent changes in adult age distribution?

3. Will “long COVID” and future pandemics be a factor?

4. Disability criteria—DOT, consideration of vocational factors?

5. Will we have significant legislative changes in the future?

◦ Modify waiting (elimination) period for DI (5 months) or Medicare (29 months)?

◦ Modify return to work incentives?

◦ Other changes?

18