Panel 1: Social Security Benefits 

and Demographic Trends

Karen Glenn, Deputy Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

2020 Retirement and Disability Research Consortium Annual Meeting 

August 6, 2020
Employment / Labor Force Participation

• Employment has direct effects on the amount of payroll tax revenue coming in to the Social Security program; 

labor force participation rates (LPFRs) are a closely-related measure

• Trustees’ projections of LFPR consider business cycles, disability prevalence, education, marital status, presence 

of young children, benefit replacement rates, the retirement earnings test, and life expectancy

• Damir and his co-authors focus on the relationship between life expectancy and LFPR

Panel 1: Social Security Benefits and Demographic Trends 2
Longevity / Differential Mortality

• Mortality by Career-Average Earnings Level study by Bosley, Morris, and Glenn (2018): 

https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/NOTES/pdf_studies/study124.pdf

• Our study looked at mortality for Social Security retired worker beneficiaries in various age groups, through time

• We observed lower death rates for those with higher-than-average career earnings (AIME) levels, and higher death rates for those 

with lower-than-average AIME levels; spreads for females are smaller than those for males; ages 65-69 are shown below

• Mary’s paper focuses on the SSI population, and the relationship between nursing home use and increasing longevity and diversity

Panel 1: Social Security Benefits and Demographic Trends 3
Trends in Retirement Benefit Claiming Ages

• Social Security retirement benefit claiming patterns have changed significantly over the years

• Changes in the retirement earnings test and in the full retirement age have had big effects in the past—and 

recently, the trend is clearly toward later claiming

• Damon and his co-authors consider how workers respond to the earnings test—often in irrational ways

Panel 1: Social Security Benefits and Demographic Trends 4
Elephant in the Room: COVID Effects

• Employment and LFPRs have declined along with the COVID-induced 

recession—will they remain low, or rebound soon?

• Will COVID deaths continue to be concentrated at older ages, and among 

people of color?

• Will there be persistent and even cumulative effects on mortality (and 

morbidity) in the longer term?

• Direct virus-related immediate deaths

• Increased deaths of despair/violence—suicide, homicide?

• Decreased life expectancy from compromise for COVID survivors; how much?

• So much depends on government and individual responses, along with the 

timing and efficacy of a vaccine

Panel 1: Social Security Benefits and Demographic Trends 5
Elephant in the Room: COVID Effects

• There has been speculation in 

the press and elsewhere that the 

COVID-induced recession will 

cause workers to apply for 

retirement benefits earlier than 

they would have otherwise

• We aren’t seeing this in the data—yet

• Similarly, we aren’t yet seeing evidence of increased DI or SSI 

applications

• Speculation is that folks are 

relying on extended 

unemployment benefits for now, 

but might start applying earlier if 

the recession persists

Panel 1: Social Security Benefits and Demographic Trends 6

Disabled worker data through June 2020 (numbers in thousands)

Source: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/dibGraphs.html