SSA/Trustees Reports

Fertility Projections

Karen Glenn, Deputy Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

NBER Summer Institute

July 24, 2019
Overview of SSA/Trustees Report Projections

• Objective: assess the actuarial status of the Trust Funds as required by law

• Ability to pay scheduled benefits with scheduled revenue

• Shortfall, if any, over the long-range (75 years) and after reserve depletion

• Baseline is current law

• Actuarial model reflecting the population in the Social Security coverage area

• U.S. population and workforce, authorized and unauthorized, and abroad

• Earnings in the economy, and those covered and taxable

• Workers insured for benefit coverage, and numbers becoming entitled

• Average benefit levels by type of benefit and duration since becoming entitled

• Accumulation of starting reserves, income, and outgo for trust fund reserve status

• Demographic assumptions shape the age distribution for the future

• Birth rates are most critical factor for age distribution

2
Birth Data Background

• Age-specific central birth rates

• Births during the year to mothers at the specified age divided by the midyear 

female population at that age

• Births from National Center for Health Statistics

• Resident population from Census Bureau

• Total fertility rate (TFR)

• Sum of the age-specific central birth rates during the year

• Can be interpreted as the average number of children that would be born to a 

woman if she were to experience, at each age of her life, the birth rate 

observed in, or assumed for, a specified year, and if she were to survive the 

entire childbearing period

3
Total Fertility Rate, Historical and Projected, 

2019 Trustees Report (TR)

4
5
6
Central Birth Rates, 5-Year Age Groups, 2019 TR

7
Cohort Total Fertility Rate, Historical and Projected, 

2019 TR

8
Fertility Expectations

9
Future Expected Additional Births Only

10
Compare to Cohort TFR (25-29)

11
Compare to Cohort TFR (30-34)

12
13
14
15
16
Historical Total Fertility Rates, by Country

17

Country 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Most Recent

TFR

Latest

 10-Year Change

Australia 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 -0.1

Austria 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.1

Belgium 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 -0.1

Canada 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 -0.1

China 2.6 2.7 2.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.0

Denmark 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 0.0

Finland 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 -0.2

France 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 -0.1

Germany 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 0.3

Greece 2.2 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 0.0

India 4.8 4.5 4.0 3.7 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 -0.6

Ireland 3.2 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 0.0

Italy 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 -0.1

Japan 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 0.1

Mexico 4.7 3.9 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 -0.2

Netherlands 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 0.0

New Zealand 2.0 1.9 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 -0.1

Norway 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 -0.2

Portugal 2.2 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 0.0

Spain 2.2 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 -0.1

Sweden 1.7 1.7 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 0.0

Switzerland 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.1

United Kingdom 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 0.0

United States 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 -0.3

Source: United States: Social Security Administration Office of the Chief Actuary calculations based on data from the National Center for Health Statistics and the Census Bureau

 Other countries: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development website at: https://data.oecd.org/pop/fertility-rates.htm
18
19
20