SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE, MD 21235-0001

SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

July 11, 2023 

The Honorable Sheldon Whitehouse 

Committee on the Budget 

United States Senate

Washington, D.C. 20510 

The Honorable Brendan Boyle

Committee on the Budget 

United States House of Representatives

Washington, D.C. 20515 

Dear Chairman Whitehouse and Ranking Member Boyle: 

I am writing in response to your request for our estimates of the financial effects on Social 

Security of enacting the Medicare and Social Security Fair Share Act, which you introduced on 

April 18, 2023 in the Senate and today in the House of Representatives. The estimates provided 

here reflect the intermediate assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report. 

This Bill (hereafter referred to as the proposal) includes two provisions with direct effects on the 

Social Security trust funds. We have enjoyed working with Tyler Evilsizer, Sion Bell, and Dan 

RuBoss of your staff in developing this analysis. The estimates and analysis provided here reflect 

the combined effort of many in the Office of the Chief Actuary, but most particularly Karen 

Glenn, Daniel Nickerson, Kyle Burkhalter, Anna Kirjusina, Chris Chaplain, Katie Sutton, and 

Tiffany Bosley. 

The enclosed tables provide estimates of the effects of the two provisions on the cost, income, 

and combined trust fund reserves for the Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) 

program, as well as estimated effects on retired worker benefit levels and effects on payroll tax 

levels for selected hypothetical workers. In addition, tables 1b and 1b.n provide estimates of the 

federal budget implications of these two provisions with direct effects on the OASDI program. 

We estimate that enactment of these provisions would extend the ability of the OASDI program 

to pay scheduled benefits in full and on time throughout the 75-year projection period. In 

addition, with enactment of these provisions, the OASDI program would meet the further 

conditions for sustainable solvency, because projected combined trust fund reserves would be 

growing as a percentage of the annual cost of the program at the end of the long-range period. 

The date of projected depletion of the combined OASI and DI Trust Fund reserves is 2034 under 

the intermediate assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report. 
Page 2 – The Honorable Sheldon Whitehouse and The Honorable Brendan Boyle 

The proposal includes two provisions with direct effects on the OASDI program. The following 

list briefly describes these provisions: 

Sections 2 and 3. Apply the combined OASDI payroll tax rate on covered earnings above 

$400,000, effective for 2024 and later. Tax all earnings once the current-law taxable 

maximum exceeds $400,000. Do not credit the additional taxed earnings for benefit 

purposes.

Section 4. Expand the tax on net investment income (NII) as defined in the Affordable Care 

Act (ACA) to cover earnings from active S corporation holders and active limited partners. 

Apply a 12.4-percent tax on this expanded definition of NII, payable to the OASI and DI 

Trust Funds with specified thresholds, effective for 2024 and later. The NII tax would apply 

to the lesser of NII and the excess of modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) above the 

unindexed thresholds of $400,000 for a single filer and $500,000 for a married couple filing 

jointly. 

The balance of this letter provides a summary of the effects of the two provisions on the actuarial 

status of the OASDI program, our understanding of the specifications and intent of each of the 

two provisions, and descriptions of our detailed financial estimates for trust fund operations, 

benefit levels, and implications for the federal budget. See the “Specification for Provisions of 

the Proposal” section of this letter for a more detailed description of these two provisions. 

Summary of Effects of the Proposal on OASDI Actuarial Status

Figure 1 illustrates the projected OASDI Trust Fund ratio through 2097 under current law and 

assuming enactment of the proposal. The trust fund ratio is defined as the combined OASI and 

DI Trust Fund reserves expressed as a percentage of annual program cost. Assuming enactment 

of the proposal, the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds are expected to be able to pay scheduled 

benefits in full and on time throughout the 75-year projection period, under the intermediate 

assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report. In addition, because the projected trust fund ratio is 

increasing at the end of the period, the proposal meets the conditions for sustainable solvency. 
Page 3 – The Honorable Sheldon Whitehouse and The Honorable Brendan Boyle 

Note: Trust Fund Ratio for a given year is the ratio of reserves in the combined Social Security Trust Fund at the 

beginning of the year to the cost of the program for the year. 

Under current law, 80 percent of scheduled benefits are projected to be payable on a timely basis 

in 2034 after depletion of the combined trust fund reserves, with the percentage payable 

declining to 74 percent for 2097. Assuming enactment of the proposal, 100 percent of scheduled 

benefits are projected to be payable on a timely basis throughout the 75-year projection period. 

Enactment of the two provisions of this proposal would replace the long-range OASDI actuarial 

deficit of 3.61 percent of taxable payroll under current law with a positive actuarial balance of 

0.45 percent of payroll under the proposal. 

Figure 2 illustrates annual projected levels of cost, expenditures, and non-interest income as a 

percentage of the current-law taxable payroll. The projected level of cost reflects the full cost of 

scheduled benefits both under current law and assuming enactment of the proposal. After trust 

fund reserve depletion, projected expenditures under current law and under the proposal include 

only amounts payable from projected tax revenues (non-interest income), which are less than 

projected cost. 

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2023 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Trust Fund Ratio

Figure 1. Current-Law and Proposal OASDI Trust Fund Reserves as Percent 

of Annual Cost: 2023 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Current-Law Trust Fund Ratio

Proposal
Page 4 – The Honorable Sheldon Whitehouse and The Honorable Brendan Boyle 

OASDI program annual cost for scheduled benefits assuming enactment of the proposal would 

be slightly lower than under current law, starting in 2025. Beginning in 2024, non-interest 

income under the proposal is projected to be substantially higher than under current law, 

allowing for full payment of scheduled benefits. This difference between proposal and currentlaw income increases from 2.4 percent of current-law payroll for 2024 to 4.8 percent of currentlaw payroll for 2097. For 2024 and later, the proposal improves the annual balance (non-interest 

income minus program cost). 

It is also useful to consider the projected cost, expenditures, and income for the OASDI program 

expressed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Figure 3 illustrates these levels 

under both current law and the proposal. 

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

2023 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Percent of Current-Law Taxable Payroll

Figure 2. Proposal and Current-Law Cost, Expenditures, and Non-Interest 

Income as Percent of Taxable Payroll: 2023 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Current-Law Cost

Current-Law Non-Interest Income

Current-Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Non-Interest Income

Proposal Expenditures
Page 5 – The Honorable Sheldon Whitehouse and The Honorable Brendan Boyle 

Specification for Provisions of the Proposal 

Sections 2 and 3. Apply the combined OASDI payroll tax rate on covered earnings above 

$400,000, effective for 2024 and later.

This provision applies the OASDI payroll tax rate to covered earnings above $400,000 in 2024 

and later. The $400,000 level is a fixed amount after 2024 and not indexed to the average wage 

increase. All earnings would be taxed once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $400,000, 

which is projected to occur in 2048. Any earnings above the higher of $400,000 or the currentlaw taxable maximum in a given year would not be credited for benefit computation purposes. 

Based on the changes to payroll taxes included in these sections of the proposal, we assume 

employers and employees will redistribute total employee compensation among taxes, wages, 

and other compensation beginning in 2024. This behavioral response is projected to reduce 

somewhat the share of compensation received in wages, and thus payroll tax revenue, the 

national average wage index (AWI), and the level of scheduled benefits that would occur in the 

absence of this behavioral response. 

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 2.26 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2097) by 2.60 percent of payroll. 

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

2023 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Percent of GDP

Figure 3. Proposal and Current-Law Cost, Expenditures, and Non-Interest 

Income as Percent of GDP: 2023 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Current-Law Cost

Current-Law Non-Interest Income

Current-Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Non-Interest Income

Proposal Expenditures
Page 6 – The Honorable Sheldon Whitehouse and The Honorable Brendan Boyle 

Section 4. Expand the tax on net investment income (NII) as defined in the Affordable Care 

Act (ACA) to cover earnings from active S corporation holders and active limited partners. 

Apply a 12.4-percent tax on this expanded definition of NII, payable to the OASI and DI 

Trust Funds with specified thresholds, effective for 2024 and later.

The ACA established a 3.8 percent tax on net investment income for personal income tax filers. 

The current tax is applied to the lesser of NII and the excess of Modified Adjusted Gross Income, 

or MAGI (AGI with adjustments for specific circumstances), above thresholds of $200,000 for a 

single filer and $250,000 for a married couple filing jointly, and is deposited in the General Fund 

of the Treasury. This provision expands the application of the NII tax to cover earnings from 

active S corporation holders and active limited partners. This provision specifies an additional 

12.4-percent tax payable to the OASI and DI Trust Funds, also applied to the lesser of the 

expanded NII and the excess of MAGI over specified thresholds, but with higher thresholds of 

$400,000 for a single filer and $500,000 for a married couple filing jointly. These thresholds are 

fixed and not indexed. 

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 1.79 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2097) by 2.22 percent of payroll. 

Detailed Financial Results for the Provisions of the Proposal 

Summary Results by Provision 

Table A provides estimates of the effects on the OASDI long-range actuarial balance of enacting 

the provisions of the proposal separately and on a combined basis. The table also includes 

estimates of the effect of enacting the provisions on the annual balance (the difference between

the income rate and the cost rate, expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll) for 

the 75th projection year, 2097. Interaction among individual provisions is reflected only in the 

total estimates for the combined provisions. 

Benefit Illustrations

Tables B1 and B2 provide illustrative examples of the projected change in benefit levels under 

the provisions of the proposal for beneficiaries retiring and starting benefit receipt at age 65 in 

future years at six selected earnings levels, with selected numbers of years of work. The 

“Maximum-AIME Steady Earner” is assumed to have earnings at ages 22 through 64 that equal 

the current-law taxable maximum level (equivalent to $160,200 for 2023) and the “Twice 

Maximum-AIME Steady Earner” is assumed to have earnings at ages 22 through 64 that equal 

twice the current-law taxable maximum level (equivalent to $320,400 for 2023). Table B3

provides additional important information on characteristics of retired workers represented by 

these illustrations for the year 2019. 

The first several columns of Table B1 compare the initial scheduled benefit levels, assuming 

retirement at age 65 under the provisions of the proposal, to scheduled current-law benefit levels. 

The scheduled benefit amounts under the proposal are lower than under current law by less than
Page 7 – The Honorable Sheldon Whitehouse and The Honorable Brendan Boyle

1 percent for workers newly entitled at age 65 in 2040, 2060, and 2090, due to the assumed 

behavioral response to the increased payroll tax in 2024 and later. The final two columns of this 

table show the level of scheduled benefits under the proposal as a percentage of current-law 

scheduled benefits and the level of payable benefits under the proposal as a percentage of 

current-law payable benefits. The level of retirement benefits payable assuming enactment of the 

proposal would be substantially higher than the level payable under current law, for all years 

after 2034. 

Table B2 provides two comparisons: (1) the percentage change in scheduled benefit levels at 

ages 65, 75, 85, and 95 under the proposal compared to scheduled benefits under current law; 

and (2) the percentage change in payable benefit levels at the same four ages under the proposal 

compared to payable benefits under current law. Each comparison assumes retirement and start 

of benefit receipt at age 65. Table B2 shows the same slight decreases in scheduled benefits as 

shown in table B1 for age 65 and at older ages. Payable benefit levels increase substantially 

under the provisions of the proposal in relation to current-law payable benefit levels.

The hypothetical workers represented in these tables reflect average career-earnings patterns of 

workers who started receiving retirement benefits under the Social Security program in recent 

years. The tables subdivide workers with very-low, low, and medium career-average earnings 

levels by their numbers of years of non-zero earnings.

Table B3 provides information helpful in interpreting the benefit illustrations in Tables B1 and 

B2. Percentages in Table B3 are based on tabulations from a 10-percent sample of newly-entitled 

retired workers in 2019. Table B3 displays the percentages of these newly-entitled retired

workers in 2019 that are closest to each of the illustrative examples and are:

1) “Dually Entitled”, meaning they received a higher spouse or widow(er) benefit based on 

the career earnings of their husband or wife,

2) “WEP” (Windfall Elimination Provision), meaning that they received a reduced benefit 

due to having a pension based on earnings that were not covered under the OASDI 

program (primarily certain government workers), and they had less than 30 years of 

substantial earnings that were taxable under the OASDI program,

3) “Foreign Born”, meaning that they entered the Social Security coverage area after birth 

(and generally after entering working ages), and

4) “All Others”, meaning they had none of the three characteristics listed above.

The extent to which retired-worker beneficiaries represented by each of the illustrative examples 

have any of the characteristics listed above (dually entitled, WEP, foreign born) is important 

because such individuals are less dependent on the OASDI benefit that relates to their own 

career-average earnings level. It should be noted that the distributions shown in Table B3 for 

retirees in 2019 will be changing somewhat for beneficiaries becoming entitled as retired-worker 

beneficiaries in the future.

Payroll Tax Effects

Table T compares the scheduled payroll tax levels assuming enactment of the provisions of the 

proposal to scheduled current-law payroll tax levels. Under the proposal, workers with covered 
Page 8 – The Honorable Sheldon Whitehouse and The Honorable Brendan Boyle

earnings in excess of the higher of $400,000 and the current-law taxable maximum would, along 

with their employers, pay additional payroll taxes beginning in 2024. Table T shows that the 

worker with earnings at twice the current-law taxable maximum would have payroll tax liability 

increased by 69.4 percent in 2040 and by 100 percent in 2060 and 2090. In addition, there would 

be effects on earnings (and therefore payroll taxes paid) due to the assumed behavioral response 

by employees and employers; these effects are not included in this table. Also note that Table T 

does not reflect the effects of the NII tax provision (section 4).

Detailed Tables Containing Annual and Summary Projections

Enclosed with this letter are tables 1, 1a, 1b, 1b.n, 1c, 1d, and 1d.n, which provide annual and 

summary projections for the proposal.

Trust Fund Operations

Table 1 provides projections of the financial operations of the OASDI program assuming 

enactment of the proposal and shows that the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds would be able 

to pay scheduled benefits in full and on time throughout the 75-year period through 2097

assuming enactment of the two provisions. Under current law, 80 percent of scheduled benefits 

are projected to be payable at trust fund reserve depletion in 2034, declining to 74 percent 

payable by 2097. With enactment of this proposal, 100 percent of the proposed scheduled 

benefits would be fully payable through 2097.

The table shows the annual cost and income rates, annual balances, and trust fund ratios 

(reserves as a percentage of annual program cost) for OASDI, as well as the change from current 

law in these cost rates, income rates, and annual balances. Included at the bottom of this table are 

summarized rates for the 75-year (long-range) period.

For 2024 and later, enactment of the proposal would improve the annual balance (non-interest 

income minus program cost). The improvement in the annual balance increases from 2.4 percent 

of current-law payroll for 2024 to 4.8 percent for 2097. Under the proposal, the annual balance is 

negative in 2023, positive from 2024 through 2065, negative from 2066 through 2085, and then 

positive and generally increasing through the end of the long-range period, reaching 0.5 percent 

of payroll for 2097. Under current law, the projected annual deficit for 2097 is 4.3 percent of 

payroll.

The actuarial balance for the OASDI program over the 75-year projection period would be

improved by 4.05 percent of taxable payroll, from an actuarial deficit of 3.61 percent of payroll 

under current law to a positive actuarial balance of 0.45 percent of taxable payroll assuming 

enactment of the proposal.

Program Transfers and Trust Fund Reserves

Column 4 of Table 1a provides a projection of the level of reserves for the combined OASI and 

DI Trust Funds, assuming enactment of the two Social Security provisions of the proposal. These 

trust fund reserve amounts are expressed in present value dollars discounted to January 1, 2023. 

The table indicates that the provisions include no new specified transfers of general revenue to 
Page 9 – The Honorable Sheldon Whitehouse and The Honorable Brendan Boyle

the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds. For purpose of comparison, the OASDI Trust Fund 

reserves, expressed in present value dollars, are also shown for the current-law Social Security 

program both without and with the added proposal general fund transfers (zero in this case) in 

columns 6 and 7.

Note that negative values in columns 6 and 7 represent the “unfunded obligation” for the 

program through the year. The unfunded obligation is the present value of the shortfall of 

revenue needed to pay full scheduled benefits on a timely basis from the date of trust fund 

reserve depletion through the end of the indicated year. Gross Domestic Product (GDP),

expressed in present value dollars, is shown in column 5 for comparison with other values in the 

table.

Effect of the Social Security Provisions on the Federal Budget

Table 1b shows the projected effect, in present value discounted dollars, on the federal budget 

(unified-budget and on-budget) annual cash flows and balances, assuming enactment of the two

Social Security provisions of the proposal. Our analysis provided in these tables reflects only the 

direct effects of these provisions on the OASI and DI Trust Funds and does not reflect the effects 

of these provisions on other programs or the General Fund of the Treasury under the on-budget 

operations of the federal government. Table 1b.n provides the estimated nominal dollar effect of 

enactment of the proposal on annual budget balances for years 2023 through 2032. All values in 

these tables represent the amount of change from the level projected under current law. In 

addition, changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits, not payable under 

the law after depletion of trust fund reserves, would still be paid using revenue provided from the 

General Fund of the Treasury. The reader should be cautioned that this presumption of payment 

of benefits beyond the resources of the trust funds is prohibited under current law and is also 

inconsistent with all past experience under the Social Security program.

Column 1 of Table 1b shows the added proposal general fund transfers (zero for this proposal). 

Column 2 shows the net changes in OASDI cash flow from all provisions of the proposal.

We project the net effect of the proposal on unified budget cash flow (column 3) to be positive in 

years 2024 and later, reflecting the payroll tax newly applied to earnings above $400,000 in 

sections 2 and 3 and the newly applied taxes on the expanded net investment income in section 4.

Column 4 of Table 1b indicates that the effect of implementing the proposal would be a 

reduction of the theoretical federal debt held by the public, reaching about $26.5 trillion in 

present value at the end of the 75-year projection period. Column 5 provides the projected effect 

of the proposal on the annual unified budget balances, including both the cash flow effect in 

column 3 and the additional interest on the accumulated debt in column 4. Columns 6 and 7 

indicate that the provisions of this proposal would have no expected direct effects on the onbudget cash flow, or on the total federal debt, in the future, because estimates provided here 

include only direct effects of the provisions on the OASI and DI Trust Funds.

It is important to note that we base these estimates on the intermediate assumptions of the 2023

Trustees Report, so these estimates are not consistent with estimates made by the Office of 

Management and Budget or the Congressional Budget Office based on their assumptions. In 
Page 10 – The Honorable Sheldon Whitehouse and The Honorable Brendan Boyle

particular, all present values are discounted using trust fund yield assumptions under the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report.

Annual Trust Fund Operations as a Percentage of GDP

Table 1c provides annual cost, annual expenditures (amount that would be payable), and annual 

tax income for the OASDI program expressed as a percentage of GDP for both current law and 

assuming enactment of the two Social Security provisions of the proposal. Showing the annual 

trust fund cash flows as a percentage of GDP provides an additional perspective on these trust 

fund operations in relation to the total value of goods and services produced in the United States. 

The relationship between income and cost is similar when expressed as a percentage of GDP to 

that when expressed as a percentage of taxable payroll (Table 1).

Effects on Trust Fund Reserves and Unfunded Obligations

Table 1d provides estimates of the changes in trust fund reserves and unfunded obligations on an 

annual basis, expressed in present value dollars discounted to January 1, 2023. Table 1d.n

provides the same estimates, expressed in nominal dollars, for years 2023 through 2032.

For the 75-year (long-range) period as a whole, the current-law unfunded obligation of $22.4

trillion would be replaced by reserves of $4.1 trillion in present value at the end of 2097, 

assuming enactment of the proposal. This change of $26.5 trillion results from:

• A $26.2 trillion increase in revenue (column 2), from taxing all earnings above the 

higher of the current-law taxable maximum or $400,000 and the newly applied taxes 

on the expanded net investment income, plus

• A $0.4 trillion decrease in cost (column 3), primarily from the small changes in 

benefits due to the assumed behavioral response to the changes to payroll taxes.

We hope these estimates are helpful. Please let me know if we may provide further assistance.

Sincerely,

Stephen C. Goss, ASA, MAAA

Chief Actuary

Enclosures
Table A—Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of the “Medicare and 

Social Security Fair Share Act”, Introduced by Chairman Whitehouse and Ranking 

Member Boyle

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

for 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

Sections 2 and 3) Apply the combined OASDI payroll tax rate 

on covered earnings above $400,000 paid in 2024 and later, 

and tax all covered earnings once the current-law taxable 

maximum exceeds $400,000. Do not provide benefit credit for 

additional earnings taxed............................................................. 2.26 2.60

Section 4) Expand the tax on net investment income (NII) as 

defined in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to cover earnings 

from active S corporation holders and active limited partners. 

Apply a 12.4-percent tax on this expanded definition of NII, 

payable to the OASI and DI Trust Funds with specified 

thresholds, effective for 2024 and later. The unindexed

thresholds for this provision are $400,000 for a single filer and 

$500,000 for a married couple filing jointly. The NII tax

would apply to the lesser of NII and the excess of modified 

adjusted income (MAGI) above the unindexed 

thresholds.......................................... 1.79 2.22

Total for all provisions, including interaction....................... 4.05 4.82

1Under current law, the estimated long-range OASDI actuarial balance is -3.61 percent of taxable payroll. 2Under current law, the estimated 75th year annual balance is -4.35 percent of taxable payroll. 

Notes: All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2023 OASDI Trustees Report. 

 Estimates of individual provisions appear on a stand-alone basis relative to current law, unless otherwise stated.

Social Security Administration

Office of the Chief Actuary

July 11, 2023
Proposal Proposal

Year Scheduled to Payable to

Attain Payroll Tax and Current Law Current Law

Age 65 (Wage-Indexed (CPI-Indexed Benefit Formula5 Total Scheduled Payable

2023 Dollars) 2023 Dollars)

 

2027 877 932 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 894 1,131 -0.5 -0.5 100 128

2060 899 1,421 -0.6 -0.6 99 134

2090 899 1,992 -0.5 -0.5 100 136

 

2027 877 932 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 894 1,131 -0.5 -0.5 100 128

2060 899 1,421 -0.6 -0.6 99 134

2090 899 1,992 -0.5 -0.5 100 136

 

2027 877 932 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 894 1,131 -0.5 -0.5 100 128

2060 899 1,421 -0.6 -0.6 99 134

2090 899 1,992 -0.5 -0.5 100 136

 

2027 877 932 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 894 1,131 -0.5 -0.5 100 128

2060 899 1,421 -0.6 -0.6 99 134

2090 899 1,992 -0.5 -0.5 100 136

2027 1,149 1,221 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 1,171 1,480 -0.5 -0.5 100 128

2060 1,177 1,860 -0.4 -0.4 100 134

2090 1,176 2,608 -0.4 -0.4 100 136

2027 1,149 1,221 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 1,171 1,480 -0.5 -0.5 100 128

2060 1,177 1,860 -0.4 -0.4 100 134

2090 1,176 2,608 -0.4 -0.4 100 136

2027 1,149 1,221 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 1,171 1,480 -0.5 -0.5 100 128

2060 1,177 1,860 -0.4 -0.4 100 134

2090 1,176 2,608 -0.4 -0.4 100 136

2027 1,896 2,015 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 1,931 2,442 -0.4 -0.4 100 128

2060 1,942 3,067 -0.3 -0.3 100 134

2090 1,940 4,301 -0.2 -0.2 100 136

2027 1,896 2,015 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 1,931 2,442 -0.4 -0.4 100 128

2060 1,942 3,067 -0.3 -0.3 100 134

2090 1,940 4,301 -0.2 -0.2 100 136

2027 2,509 2,666 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 2,556 3,231 -0.5 -0.5 100 128

2060 2,570 4,060 -0.5 -0.5 99 134

2090 2,568 5,692 -0.5 -0.5 100 136

2027 3,065 3,258 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 3,127 3,953 -0.6 -0.6 99 127

2060 3,136 4,955 -0.8 -0.8 99 133

2090 3,135 6,949 -0.8 -0.8 99 135

2027 3,065 3,258 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 3,127 3,953 -0.6 -0.6 99 127

2060 3,136 4,955 -0.8 -0.8 99 133

2090 3,135 6,949 -0.8 -0.8 99 135

1

2

3

4

5

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration July 11, 2023

After the trust fund reserves deplete under current law continuing taxes are expected to be enough to pay about three fourths of scheduled benefits.

Apply the OASDI payroll tax rate on covered earnings above $400,000 starting in 2024, and tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds 400,000. Do not provide benefit credit for 

additional earnings taxed. The assumed behavioral response to increased payroll tax lowers reported wages, and thus the level of the AWI starting in 2024.

This analysis reflects only the provisions of the proposal identified in this table and described in the footnotes above.

Of the 7.6 percent of retirees with current-law AIME closest to the Maximum-Current-Law level, about 33 percent (or 2.5 percent of all retirees) would have an AIME closer to the Twice Maximum-CurrentLaw level if their earnings were not limited by annual taxable maximums.

 Very-Low-AIME ($16,537 for 20231) 14-Year Scaled Earner (3.6% of Retirees2

)

 Low-AIME ($29,766 for 20231) 44-Year Scaled Earner (18.8% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($29,766 for 20231

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (3.8% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($29,766 for 20231) 20-Year Scaled Earner (1.4% of Retirees2

)

 Medium-AIME ($66,147 for 20231) 44-Year Scaled Earner (27.5% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($66,147 for 20231) 30-Year Scaled Earner (1.8% of Retirees2)

 High-AIME ($105,835 for 20231) 44-Year Scaled Earner (19.3% of Retirees2)

 Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($160,200 for 20231) 43-Year Steady Earner (7.6% of Retirees2)

 Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($320,400 for 20231

) 43-Year Steady Earner3

Average of highest 35 years of taxable earnings wage indexed to 2023. For the Maximum and Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME workers, we show one times and two times the 2023 taxable maximum, 

respectively.

Projected percent of newly entitled retired worker beneficiaries in 2050 with current-law AIME levels and years of covered earnings closest to AIME levels and close to years of covered earnings shown. See 

details in Note 1 on table B3.

 Very-Low-AIME ($16,537 for 20231

) 20-Year Scaled Earner (5.0% of Retirees2)

Table B1. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Becoming Newly Entitled at age 65 

"Medicare and Social Security Fair Share Act," Introduced by Chairman Whitehouse and Ranking Member Boyle

Benefit Ratios

Scheduled Benefit Level Percent Change at age 65

Current Law Scheduled

Monthly Benefits4

(Percent change) (Percents)

 Very-Low-AIME ($16,537 for 20231) 40-Year Scaled Earner (5.4% of Retirees2

)

 Very-Low-AIME ($16,537 for 20231) 30-Year Scaled Earner (5.8% of Retirees2

)
Year 

Attain

Age 65 Age 65 Age 75 Age 85 Age 95 Age 65 Age 75 Age 85 Age 95

2027 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 127.1 129.0 132.5

2040 99.5 99.5 99.5 99.5 127.6 129.0 133.7 138.2

2060 99.4 99.4 99.4 99.4 133.6 138.1 139.8 135.5

2090 99.5 99.5 99.5 99.5 135.6 135.1 4 4

2027 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 127.1 129.0 132.5

2040 99.5 99.5 99.5 99.5 127.6 129.0 133.7 138.2

2060 99.4 99.4 99.4 99.4 133.6 138.1 139.8 135.5

2090 99.5 99.5 99.5 99.5 135.6 135.1 4 4

2027 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 127.1 129.0 132.5

2040 99.5 99.5 99.5 99.5 127.6 129.0 133.7 138.2

2060 99.4 99.4 99.4 99.4 133.6 138.1 139.8 135.5

2090 99.5 99.5 99.5 99.5 135.6 135.1 4 4

2027 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 127.1 129.0 132.5

2040 99.5 99.5 99.5 99.5 127.6 129.0 133.7 138.2

2060 99.4 99.4 99.4 99.4 133.6 138.1 139.8 135.5

2090 99.5 99.5 99.5 99.5 135.6 135.1 4 4

2027 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 127.1 129.0 132.5

2040 99.5 99.5 99.5 99.5 127.6 129.1 133.7 138.2

2060 99.6 99.6 99.6 99.6 133.7 138.2 140.0 135.6

2090 99.6 99.6 99.6 99.6 135.7 135.2 4 4

2027 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 127.1 129.0 132.5

2040 99.5 99.5 99.5 99.5 127.6 129.1 133.7 138.2

2060 99.6 99.6 99.6 99.6 133.7 138.2 140.0 135.6

2090 99.6 99.6 99.6 99.6 135.7 135.2 4 4

2027 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 127.1 129.0 132.5

2040 99.5 99.5 99.5 99.5 127.6 129.1 133.7 138.2

2060 99.6 99.6 99.6 99.6 133.7 138.2 140.0 135.6

2090 99.6 99.6 99.6 99.6 135.7 135.2 4 4

2027 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 127.1 129.0 132.5

2040 99.6 99.6 99.6 99.6 127.6 129.1 133.8 138.3

2060 99.7 99.7 99.7 99.7 133.9 138.4 140.1 135.8

2090 99.8 99.8 99.8 99.8 135.9 135.4 4 4

2027 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 127.1 129.0 132.5

2040 99.6 99.6 99.6 99.6 127.6 129.1 133.8 138.3

2060 99.7 99.7 99.7 99.7 133.9 138.4 140.1 135.8

2090 99.8 99.8 99.8 99.8 135.9 135.4 4 4

2027 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 127.1 129.0 132.5

2040 99.5 99.5 99.5 99.5 127.6 129.0 133.7 138.2

2060 99.5 99.5 99.5 99.5 133.6 138.1 139.8 135.5

2090 99.5 99.5 99.5 99.5 135.6 135.1 4 4

2027 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 127.1 129.0 132.5

2040 99.4 99.4 99.4 99.4 127.5 128.9 133.6 138.1

2060 99.2 99.2 99.2 99.2 133.3 137.8 139.5 135.2

2090 99.2 99.2 99.2 99.2 135.2 134.6 4 4

2027 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 127.1 129.0 132.5

2040 99.4 99.4 99.4 99.4 127.5 128.9 133.6 138.1

2060 99.2 99.2 99.2 99.2 133.3 137.8 139.5 135.2

2090 99.2 99.2 99.2 99.2 135.2 134.6 4 4

1

2

3

4

Note:

-

- This analysis reflects only the provisions of the proposal identified in Table B1 and described in the notes above.

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report.

Apply the OASDI payroll tax rate on covered earnings above $400,000 starting in 2024, and tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds 400,000. 

Do not provide benefit credit for additional earnings taxed. The assumed behavioral response to increased payroll tax lowers reported wages, and thus the level of the 

AWI starting in 2024.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration July 11, 2023

The proposal payable benefit as percent of current law payable benefit is not presented for years of payment beyond the 75-year projection period.

 Low-AIME ($29,766 for 20231) 44-Year Scaled Earner (18.8% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($29,766 for 20231) 30-Year Scaled Earner (3.8% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($29,766 for 20231) 20-Year Scaled Earner (1.4% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($66,147 for 20231) 44-Year Scaled Earner (27.5% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($66,147 for 20231) 30-Year Scaled Earner (1.8% of Retirees2)

 High-AIME ($105,835 for 20231) 44-Year Scaled Earner (19.3% of Retirees2)

 Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($160,200 for 20231) 43-Year Steady Earner (7.6% of Retirees2)

 Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($320,400 for 20231) 43-Year Steady Earner3

Average of highest 35 years of taxable earnings wage indexed to 2023. For the Maximum and Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME workers, we show one times and 

two times the 2023 taxable maximum, respectively.

Projected percent of newly entitled retired worker beneficiaries in 2050 with current-law AIME levels and years of covered earnings closest to AIME levels and close 

to years of covered earnings shown. See details in Note 1 on table B3.

Of the 7.6 percent of retirees with current-law AIME closest to the Maximum-Current-Law level, about 33 percent (or 2.5 percent of all retirees) would have an 

AIME closer to the Twice Maximum-Current-Law level if their earnings were not limited by annual taxable maximums.

 Very-Low-AIME ($16,537 for 20231

) 14-Year Scaled Earner (3.6% of Retirees2)

Table B2. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Becoming Newly Entitled age 65 

"Medicare and Social Security Fair Share Act," Introduced by Chairman Whitehouse and Ranking Member Boyle

Proposal Scheduled Benefit as Percent of Proposal Payable Benefit as Percent of 

Current Law Scheduled Benefit Current Law Payable Benefit

(Percent) (Percent)

 Very-Low-AIME ($16,537 for 20231

) 40-Year Scaled Earner (5.4% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($16,537 for 20231) 30-Year Scaled Earner (5.8% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($16,537 for 20231) 20-Year Scaled Earner (5.0% of Retirees2)
Category 

(AIME and Years of Covered Earnings Close to) Dually Entitled2 WEP3 Foreign Born All Others4

Very-Low-AIME ($12,528 for 20191):

40-Year Scaled Earner (2.2% of Retirees) 25 6 7 64

30-Year Scaled Earner (5.9% of Retirees) 26 8 18 51

20-Year Scaled Earner (5.6% of Retirees) 26 14 30 37

14-Year Scaled Earner (4.6% of Retirees) 22 18 52 20

Low-AIME ($22,548 for 20191):

44-Year Scaled Earner (13.9% of Retirees) 8 2 7 83

30-Year Scaled Earner (6.3% of Retirees) 10 8 29 54

20-Year Scaled Earner (2.1% of Retirees) 9 19 49 29

Medium-AIME ($50,112 for 20191

):

44-Year Scaled Earner (26.5% of Retirees) 1 1 7 92

30-Year Scaled Earner (3.1% of Retirees) 1 12 42 49

High-AIME ($80,184 for 20191):

44-Year Scaled Earner (20.4% of Retirees) 0 1 9 91

Maximum-AIME ($132,900 for 20191

):

Steady Earner (9.4% of Retirees) 0 0 9 91

1

2

3

4 Not foreign born, not dually entitled by the end of 2021, and not reduced by WEP by the end of 2021.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration June 17, 2023

Table B3. Characteristics of Retired Worker Beneficiaries Becoming Newly Entitled in 2019

Percent of Beneficiaries Within Each Category That Are:

Note 1: Table B3 displays certain characteristics of newly-entitled retired worker beneficiaries in 2019 who are similar to the illustrative hypothetical workers shown in tables B1 

and B2. The categories shown here include those workers with AIME closest to the earnings level shown, and with years of covered earnings close to the number shown. In 

particular: 

- For the Very-Low-AIME category, 

 - workers included in the "40-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 35+ years of covered earnings; 

 - workers included in the "30-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 25-34 years of covered earnings; 

 - workers included in the "20-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 18-24 years of covered earnings; 

 - workers included in the "14-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have less than 18 years of covered earnings.

- For the Low-AIME category, 

 - workers included in the "44-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 35+ years of covered earnings; 

 - workers included in the "30-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 25-34 years of covered earnings; 

 - workers included in the "20-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have less than 25 years of covered earnings.

- For the Medium-AIME category, 

 - workers included in the "44-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 35+ years of covered earnings; 

 - workers included in the "30-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have less than 35 years of covered earnings.

- Workers included in the High-AIME "44-Year Scaled Earner" category have all numbers of years of covered earnings.

- Workers included in the Maximum-Current-Law-AIME "Steady Earner" category have all numbers of years of covered earnings.

Note 2: The percentages in each category are based on tabulations of a 10-percent sample of newly entitled retired-worker beneficiaries in 2019 (308,569 records). We can be 95 

percent confident that each of the values shown above is within 1.4 percentage points of the value we would find using 100 percent of the retirees in 2019.

Note 3: The sum of the percentages for each category (sum across rows) could be greater than 100 percent because some beneficiaries can be classified in more than one of the 

following groups: dually entitled, WEP, and foreign born. 

Average of highest 35 years of taxable earnings wage indexed to 2019.

Values in this column are percentages of retired workers newly entitled in 2019 who were also entitled to a higher benefit based on someone else’s account by the end of 

2021. The percentage that will ever become dually entitled is higher for most categories, because some retired workers newly entitled in 2019 will first become dually entitled 

after 2021.

Values in this column are percentages of retired workers newly entitled in 2019 who had their benefit reduced based on receipt of a pension from government employment 

under the windfall elimination provision (WEP) by the end of 2021. The percentage that will ever be reduced by WEP is higher for each category, because some retired 

workers newly entitled in 2019 will first receive a government pension after 2018.
Proposal Scheduled Payroll Taxes

Earnings Taxable Percent of Current Law

in Year (Wage-Indexed (CPI-Indexed Maximum2

2023 Dollars) 2023 Dollars) (Percents)

2027 171 182 0.0 100

2040 171 216 0.0 100

2060 171 270 0.0 100

2090 171 379 0.0 100

2027 308 327 0.0 100

2040 308 389 0.0 100

2060 308 486 0.0 100

2090 308 682 0.0 100

2027 684 726 0.0 100

2040 684 865 0.0 100

2060 684 1,080 0.0 100

2090 684 1,515 0.0 100

2027 1,094 1,162 0.0 100

2040 1,094 1,384 0.0 100

2060 1,094 1,729 0.0 100

2090 1,094 2,423 0.0 100

2027 1,655 1,759 0.0 100

2040 1,655 2,094 0.0 100

2060 1,655 2,617 0.0 100

2090 1,655 3,668 0.0 100

2027 1,655 1,759 0.0 100

2040 1,655 2,094 69.4 169

2060 1,655 2,617 100.0 200

2090 1,655 3,668 100.0 200

1

2

Percentile among all workers with any covered earnings in 2023 (including earnings both above and below the current-law taxable maximum earnings level). We include those

who will die or become disabled before reaching retirement age, and those who will not earn enough in their career to become fully insured for retired worker benefits. Thus,

these percentiles are not directly comparable to the percentages in the B tables, which are based on lifetime earnings, and include only those who survive and become eligible for

Apply the OASDI payroll tax rate on earnings above $400,000 starting in 2024, and tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds 400,000. In addition, there 

would be effects on earnings (and therefore payroll taxes paid) due to the assumed behavioral response, which are not included here.

This analysis reflects only the provisions of the proposal identified in this table and described in the footnotes above. In particular, this table does not reflect the effects of 

section 4, the NII tax provision.

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration July 11, 2023

98th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($320,400 in 2023) Twice Current-Law Maximum Earnings Level

Table T. Changes in Payroll Tax Contributions (Employee + Employer) for Workers with OASDI Covered Earnings in the Year

"Medicare and Social Security Fair Share Act," Introduced by Chairman Whitehouse and Ranking Member Boyle

Scheduled Payroll Taxes Percent Change 

Current Law Scheduled

Monthly Total Payroll Taxes

(Percent change) 

26th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($16,537 in 2023)

40th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($29,766 in 2023)

69th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($66,147 in 2023)

85th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($105,835 in 2023)

94th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($160,200 in 2023) Current-Law Maximum Earnings Level
Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

"Medicare and Social Security Fair Share Act", Introduced by Chairman Whitehouse and Ranking Member Boyle

Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2023 14.53 13.29 -1.24 204 0.00 0.00 0.00

2024 14.87 15.29 0.43 187 0.00 2.41 2.41

2025 15.04 15.56 0.52 183 0.00 2.58 2.59

2026 15.23 15.76 0.53 181 0.00 2.67 2.68

2027 15.38 15.85 0.47 179 0.00 2.76 2.76

2028 15.55 15.95 0.40 177 -0.01 2.82 2.82

2029 15.71 16.04 0.32 175 -0.01 2.87 2.88

2030 15.86 16.12 0.26 174 -0.01 2.94 2.94

2031 15.99 16.21 0.22 172 -0.01 3.00 3.01

2032 16.13 16.30 0.17 171 -0.01 3.07 3.08

2033 16.25 16.38 0.13 170 -0.02 3.13 3.15

2034 16.36 16.45 0.09 169 -0.02 3.19 3.21

2035 16.45 16.52 0.07 170 -0.03 3.25 3.28

2036 16.53 16.59 0.06 171 -0.03 3.32 3.34

2037 16.60 16.66 0.06 172 -0.03 3.38 3.41

2038 16.66 16.73 0.07 173 -0.04 3.45 3.48

2039 16.71 16.81 0.10 175 -0.04 3.52 3.56

2040 16.74 16.88 0.14 177 -0.04 3.59 3.63

2041 16.76 16.96 0.20 179 -0.05 3.66 3.71

2042 16.77 17.04 0.27 182 -0.05 3.74 3.79

2043 16.78 17.12 0.34 185 -0.05 3.82 3.87

2044 16.79 17.20 0.41 189 -0.05 3.90 3.95

2045 16.80 17.29 0.48 193 -0.06 3.98 4.04

2046 16.82 17.38 0.56 197 -0.06 4.07 4.13

2047 16.84 17.47 0.63 202 -0.06 4.16 4.22

2048 16.86 17.53 0.67 207 -0.07 4.21 4.28

2049 16.89 17.55 0.66 213 -0.07 4.23 4.30

2050 16.92 17.57 0.65 218 -0.07 4.25 4.32

2051 16.95 17.59 0.65 223 -0.07 4.27 4.34

2052 16.98 17.61 0.63 228 -0.08 4.28 4.36

2053 17.03 17.63 0.60 233 -0.08 4.30 4.38

2054 17.09 17.65 0.57 238 -0.08 4.32 4.40

2055 17.15 17.68 0.52 242 -0.08 4.33 4.41

2056 17.22 17.70 0.48 246 -0.08 4.35 4.43

2057 17.29 17.72 0.42 250 -0.08 4.36 4.45

2058 17.37 17.74 0.36 253 -0.08 4.38 4.46

2059 17.45 17.76 0.31 256 -0.09 4.39 4.48

2060 17.53 17.78 0.25 259 -0.09 4.41 4.49

2061 17.60 17.80 0.20 262 -0.09 4.42 4.51

2062 17.67 17.82 0.15 264 -0.09 4.44 4.52

2063 17.74 17.84 0.10 266 -0.09 4.45 4.54

2064 17.80 17.86 0.06 268 -0.09 4.46 4.55

2065 17.86 17.87 0.01 269 -0.09 4.47 4.56

2066 17.92 17.89 -0.03 271 -0.09 4.48 4.57

2067 17.97 17.91 -0.07 272 -0.09 4.50 4.58

2068 18.03 17.92 -0.11 273 -0.08 4.51 4.59

2069 18.09 17.94 -0.15 274 -0.08 4.52 4.61

2070 18.15 17.96 -0.19 275 -0.08 4.53 4.62

2071 18.20 17.97 -0.23 275 -0.08 4.55 4.63

2072 18.25 17.99 -0.26 276 -0.08 4.56 4.64

2073 18.30 18.00 -0.30 276 -0.08 4.57 4.65

2074 18.35 18.02 -0.33 276 -0.08 4.58 4.66

2075 18.38 18.03 -0.35 276 -0.08 4.59 4.67

2076 18.41 18.04 -0.37 276 -0.08 4.60 4.68

2077 18.42 18.05 -0.37 276 -0.08 4.61 4.69

2078 18.43 18.06 -0.36 276 -0.08 4.62 4.70

2079 18.41 18.07 -0.34 277 -0.08 4.63 4.70

2080 18.39 18.08 -0.31 277 -0.08 4.64 4.71

2081 18.36 18.09 -0.27 278 -0.08 4.64 4.72

2082 18.32 18.10 -0.22 280 -0.08 4.65 4.73

2083 18.27 18.10 -0.17 281 -0.07 4.66 4.73

2084 18.22 18.10 -0.11 283 -0.07 4.67 4.74

2085 18.15 18.11 -0.05 285 -0.07 4.67 4.75

2086 18.09 18.11 0.02 288 -0.07 4.68 4.75

2087 18.02 18.11 0.10 291 -0.07 4.69 4.76

2088 17.95 18.12 0.17 295 -0.07 4.70 4.77

2089 17.88 18.12 0.24 299 -0.07 4.70 4.77

2090 17.82 18.12 0.30 304 -0.07 4.71 4.78

2091 17.77 18.12 0.35 308 -0.07 4.71 4.78

2092 17.73 18.13 0.40 313 -0.07 4.72 4.79

2093 17.70 18.13 0.43 318 -0.07 4.73 4.80

2094 17.68 18.14 0.45 323 -0.07 4.73 4.80

2095 17.68 18.14 0.47 328 -0.07 4.74 4.81

2096 17.68 18.15 0.47 333 -0.07 4.74 4.81

2097 17.69 18.16 0.47 337 -0.07 4.75 4.82

2098 17.70 18.16 0.46 342 -0.07 4.76 4.82

Summarized Rates: OASDI Summarized Rates: OASDI

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

2023 - 2097 17.32% 17.77% 0.45% N/A -0.06% 3.99% 4.05%

Office of the Chief Actuary

Note: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration 1

Under current law the year of combined Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. July 11, 2023

Year of reserve 

depletion1

Proposal Change from Current Law

Expressed as a percentage of current-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of current-law

taxable payroll
Table 1a - General Fund Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Reserves, and Theoretical OASDI Reserves

"Medicare and Social Security Fair Share Act", Introduced by Chairman Whitehouse and Ranking Member Boyle

Percentage

of Payroll

Annual

Amounts

Accumulated as of 

End of Year

Gross Domestic 

Product

Without General

Fund Transfers

With Plan General

Fund Transfers

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,713.0 26,284.9 2,713.0 2,713.0

2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,755.0 26,707.0 2,522.6 2,522.6

2025 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,806.9 27,262.2 2,318.9 2,318.9

2026 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,860.7 27,784.5 2,102.7 2,102.7

2027 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,910.3 28,258.1 1,868.6 1,868.6

2028 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,953.1 28,650.7 1,616.7 1,616.7

2029 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,988.6 29,001.3 1,347.3 1,347.3

2030 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,017.5 29,305.1 1,061.3 1,061.3

2031 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,042.3 29,555.9 761.5 761.5

2032 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,062.7 29,735.0 447.8 447.8

2033 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,078.4 29,788.9 122.1 122.1

2034 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,089.9 29,697.3 -213.2 -213.2

2035 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,099.0 29,540.6 -555.4 -555.4

2036 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,107.8 29,362.7 -902.4 -902.4

2037 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,116.0 29,165.2 -1,254.1 -1,254.1

2038 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,125.8 28,971.6 -1,608.5 -1,608.5

2039 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,138.4 28,770.2 -1,964.5 -1,964.5

2040 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,155.4 28,572.1 -2,320.7 -2,320.7

2041 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,178.0 28,370.9 -2,675.8 -2,675.8

2042 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,207.5 28,171.3 -3,029.0 -3,029.0

2043 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,243.6 27,969.5 -3,380.1 -3,380.1

2044 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,286.4 27,770.4 -3,729.4 -3,729.4

2045 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,336.0 27,574.9 -4,077.1 -4,077.1

2046 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,392.3 27,381.0 -4,423.4 -4,423.4

2047 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,455.3 27,192.9 -4,768.7 -4,768.7

2048 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,521.1 27,007.8 -5,113.1 -5,113.1

2049 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,586.0 26,827.3 -5,457.2 -5,457.2

2050 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,649.6 26,652.1 -5,801.2 -5,801.2

2051 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,711.9 26,481.3 -6,145.1 -6,145.1

2052 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,772.1 26,310.9 -6,489.8 -6,489.8

2053 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,829.4 26,140.8 -6,835.9 -6,835.9

2054 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,883.1 25,969.9 -7,183.9 -7,183.9

2055 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,932.5 25,800.2 -7,534.7 -7,534.7

2056 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,977.1 25,633.3 -7,888.6 -7,888.6

2057 0.0 0.0 0.0 4,016.7 25,469.9 -8,246.0 -8,246.0

2058 0.0 0.0 0.0 4,050.7 25,306.2 -8,607.1 -8,607.1

2059 0.0 0.0 0.0 4,079.4 25,142.5 -8,972.0 -8,972.0

2060 0.0 0.0 0.0 4,103.0 24,979.8 -9,340.3 -9,340.3

2061 0.0 0.0 0.0 4,121.9 24,816.8 -9,711.5 -9,711.5

2062 0.0 0.0 0.0 4,136.5 24,653.2 -10,085.2 -10,085.2

2063 0.0 0.0 0.0 4,146.9 24,489.6 -10,461.1 -10,461.1

2064 0.0 0.0 0.0 4,153.5 24,325.4 -10,838.7 -10,838.7

2065 0.0 0.0 0.0 4,156.5 24,159.6 -11,218.0 -11,218.0

2066 0.0 0.0 0.0 4,155.9 23,992.3 -11,598.6 -11,598.6

2067 0.0 0.0 0.0 4,152.1 23,826.4 -11,980.4 -11,980.4

2068 0.0 0.0 0.0 4,145.1 23,661.3 -12,363.4 -12,363.4

2069 0.0 0.0 0.0 4,134.7 23,494.1 -12,747.5 -12,747.5

2070 0.0 0.0 0.0 4,121.2 23,327.4 -13,132.8 -13,132.8

2071 0.0 0.0 0.0 4,104.8 23,162.3 -13,518.8 -13,518.8

2072 0.0 0.0 0.0 4,085.7 22,998.9 -13,905.3 -13,905.3

2073 0.0 0.0 0.0 4,064.0 22,835.8 -14,292.2 -14,292.2

2074 0.0 0.0 0.0 4,040.1 22,675.7 -14,679.2 -14,679.2

2075 0.0 0.0 0.0 4,014.6 22,519.3 -15,065.7 -15,065.7

2076 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,988.3 22,365.3 -15,450.9 -15,450.9

2077 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,961.9 22,214.6 -15,834.0 -15,834.0

2078 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,936.4 22,067.0 -16,214.3 -16,214.3

2079 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,912.7 21,924.5 -16,590.8 -16,590.8

2080 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,891.4 21,785.0 -16,962.8 -16,962.8

2081 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,873.2 21,648.5 -17,330.0 -17,330.0

2082 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,858.5 21,515.6 -17,691.7 -17,691.7

2083 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,847.7 21,386.7 -18,047.7 -18,047.7

2084 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,841.2 21,261.1 -18,397.4 -18,397.4

2085 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,839.4 21,137.6 -18,740.7 -18,740.7

2086 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,842.6 21,016.6 -19,077.2 -19,077.2

2087 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,850.9 20,898.4 -19,406.9 -19,406.9

2088 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,864.3 20,781.3 -19,729.9 -19,729.9

2089 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,882.4 20,665.0 -20,046.4 -20,046.4

2090 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,904.7 20,549.6 -20,357.0 -20,357.0

2091 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,930.5 20,434.4 -20,662.3 -20,662.3

2092 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,959.3 20,319.1 -20,963.0 -20,963.0

2093 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,990.1 20,202.9 -21,259.9 -21,259.9

2094 0.0 0.0 0.0 4,022.2 20,085.9 -21,553.7 -21,553.7

2095 0.0 0.0 0.0 4,055.2 19,968.5 -21,845.0 -21,845.0

2096 0.0 0.0 0.0 4,088.3 19,850.2 -22,134.3 -22,134.3

2097 0.0 0.0 0.0 4,121.0 19,730.8 -22,422.2 -22,422.2

2098 0.0 0.0 0.0 4,152.7 19,610.4 -22,709.3 -22,709.3

Total 2023-2097 0.0

Notes: Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report.

 Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.3%. Office of the Chief Actuary

1 Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption Social Security Administration

 that the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury. July 11, 2023

Calendar

Year

Proposal General Fund Transfers Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2023

Proposal

Total OASDI

Trust Fund

Reserves 

at End of Year

Theoretical Social Security1

with Borrowing Authority

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 

1-1-2023 Net OASDI Trust Fund Reserves at End of Year
Table 1b - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget Scoring1

 and Federal Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI (Present Value Dollars)

"Medicare and Social Security Fair Share Act", Introduced by Chairman Whitehouse and Ranking Member Boyle

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow2

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year3

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Cash Flow

Change in Total

Federal Debt

 Subject to Limit 

End Of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 232.5 232.5 -232.5 232.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 255.5 255.5 -487.9 260.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2026 0.0 270.0 270.0 -758.0 281.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2027 0.0 283.7 283.7 -1,041.7 303.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2028 0.0 294.7 294.7 -1,336.4 322.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2029 0.0 304.9 304.9 -1,641.3 342.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2030 0.0 314.9 314.9 -1,956.2 364.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2031 0.0 324.6 324.6 -2,280.8 387.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2032 0.0 334.1 334.1 -2,614.9 413.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2033 0.0 341.4 341.4 -2,956.3 447.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2034 0.0 346.8 346.8 -3,303.1 476.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2035 0.0 351.3 351.3 -3,654.4 498.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2036 0.0 355.8 355.8 -4,010.2 519.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2037 0.0 359.9 359.9 -4,370.0 540.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2038 0.0 364.3 364.3 -4,734.3 561.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2039 0.0 368.6 368.6 -5,103.0 582.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2040 0.0 373.1 373.1 -5,476.0 604.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2041 0.0 377.8 377.8 -5,853.8 626.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2042 0.0 382.6 382.6 -6,236.4 648.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2043 0.0 387.2 387.2 -6,623.6 670.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2044 0.0 392.2 392.2 -7,015.8 692.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2045 0.0 397.3 397.3 -7,413.1 715.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2046 0.0 402.6 402.6 -7,815.7 739.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2047 0.0 408.2 408.2 -8,224.0 763.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2048 0.0 410.2 410.2 -8,634.2 783.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2049 0.0 409.0 409.0 -9,043.2 800.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2050 0.0 407.6 407.6 -9,450.8 818.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2051 0.0 406.3 406.3 -9,857.1 835.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2052 0.0 404.8 404.8 -10,261.9 852.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2053 0.0 403.3 403.3 -10,665.2 869.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2054 0.0 401.8 401.8 -11,067.0 885.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2055 0.0 400.2 400.2 -11,467.2 902.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2056 0.0 398.6 398.6 -11,865.8 919.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2057 0.0 396.9 396.9 -12,262.7 935.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2058 0.0 395.2 395.2 -12,657.9 951.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2059 0.0 393.5 393.5 -13,051.4 968.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2060 0.0 391.8 391.8 -13,443.2 984.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2061 0.0 390.1 390.1 -13,833.3 1,000.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2062 0.0 388.4 388.4 -14,221.7 1,016.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2063 0.0 386.3 386.3 -14,608.0 1,031.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2064 0.0 384.3 384.3 -14,992.3 1,047.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2065 0.0 382.1 382.1 -15,374.4 1,062.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2066 0.0 380.1 380.1 -15,754.5 1,078.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2067 0.0 378.0 378.0 -16,132.5 1,093.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2068 0.0 376.0 376.0 -16,508.4 1,108.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2069 0.0 373.9 373.9 -16,882.3 1,123.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2070 0.0 371.7 371.7 -17,254.0 1,138.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2071 0.0 369.6 369.6 -17,623.6 1,152.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2072 0.0 367.4 367.4 -17,991.0 1,167.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2073 0.0 365.2 365.2 -18,356.2 1,181.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2074 0.0 363.1 363.1 -18,719.3 1,196.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2075 0.0 361.0 361.0 -19,080.3 1,210.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2076 0.0 358.9 358.9 -19,439.2 1,225.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2077 0.0 356.8 356.8 -19,795.9 1,239.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2078 0.0 354.7 354.7 -20,150.7 1,253.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2079 0.0 352.8 352.8 -20,503.4 1,267.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2080 0.0 350.8 350.8 -20,854.3 1,281.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2081 0.0 348.9 348.9 -21,203.2 1,295.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2082 0.0 347.0 347.0 -21,550.2 1,309.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2083 0.0 345.1 345.1 -21,895.3 1,323.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2084 0.0 343.3 343.3 -22,238.6 1,337.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2085 0.0 341.5 341.5 -22,580.1 1,351.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2086 0.0 339.7 339.7 -22,919.9 1,364.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2087 0.0 338.0 338.0 -23,257.9 1,378.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2088 0.0 336.3 336.3 -23,594.2 1,392.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2089 0.0 334.6 334.6 -23,928.8 1,405.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2090 0.0 332.9 332.9 -24,261.7 1,419.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2091 0.0 331.2 331.2 -24,592.9 1,432.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2092 0.0 329.5 329.5 -24,922.3 1,445.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2093 0.0 327.7 327.7 -25,250.0 1,459.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2094 0.0 326.0 326.0 -25,576.0 1,472.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2095 0.0 324.2 324.2 -25,900.2 1,485.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2096 0.0 322.4 322.4 -26,222.6 1,498.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2097 0.0 320.6 320.6 -26,543.2 1,510.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total 2023-2097 0.0 26,543.2 26,543.2

Notes: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report.

 Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.3%.

1 Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would nonetheless be paid,

 based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. Office of the Chief Actuary

2

 Changes in unified budget cash flows reflect excess revenues to the Federal Government arising from the proposal. Social Security Administration

3

 New revenues from the proposal reduce theoretical debt held by the public. 

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2023

July 11, 2023
Table 1b.n - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget Scoring1

 and Federal Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI (Nominal Dollars)

"Medicare and Social Security Fair Share Act", Introduced by Chairman Whitehouse and Ranking Member Boyle

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow2

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year3 4

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance1

Change in 

Annual On 

Budget Cash 

Flow

Change in Total

Federal Debt 

Subject to Limit 

End of Year1

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance1

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 240.6 240.6 -243.6 243.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 270.7 270.7 -523.7 280.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2026 0.0 293.1 293.1 -834.0 310.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2027 0.0 315.9 315.9 -1,176.5 342.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2028 0.0 336.9 336.9 -1,551.2 374.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2029 0.0 358.5 358.5 -1,960.2 409.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2030 0.0 381.4 381.4 -2,407.1 447.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2031 0.0 405.8 405.8 -2,895.3 488.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2032 0.0 432.1 432.1 -3,427.4 532.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total 2023-2032 0.0 3,035.1 3,035.1 0.0

Notes: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report.

1 Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would nonetheless

 be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public.

2

 Changes in unified budget cash flows reflect excess revenues to the Federal Government arising from the proposal. Office of the Chief Actuary

3

 New revenues from the proposal reduce theoretical debt held by the public. Social Security Administration

4

 Includes the accumulated effect of interest income.

Billions of Nominal Dollars

July 11, 2023
Table 1c - Current Law and Proposal Cost, Expenditures, and Income: As Percent of Gross Domestic Product

"Medicare and Social Security Fair Share Act", Introduced by Chairman Whitehouse and Ranking Member Boyle

Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

2023 5.22 5.22 4.77 5.22 5.22 4.77

2024 5.37 5.37 4.65 5.37 5.37 5.52

2025 5.45 5.45 4.70 5.45 5.45 5.63

2026 5.52 5.52 4.74 5.52 5.52 5.71

2027 5.59 5.59 4.76 5.59 5.59 5.76

2028 5.66 5.66 4.78 5.66 5.66 5.81

2029 5.73 5.73 4.80 5.73 5.73 5.84

2030 5.79 5.79 4.81 5.78 5.78 5.88

2031 5.84 5.84 4.82 5.83 5.83 5.91

2032 5.88 5.88 4.82 5.88 5.88 5.94

2033 5.92 5.92 4.82 5.91 5.91 5.96

2034 5.95 5.22 4.81 5.94 5.94 5.97

2035 5.97 4.81 4.81 5.96 5.96 5.99

2036 5.99 4.80 4.80 5.98 5.98 6.00

2037 6.01 4.80 4.80 6.00 6.00 6.02

2038 6.02 4.79 4.79 6.01 6.01 6.03

2039 6.03 4.79 4.79 6.01 6.01 6.05

2040 6.03 4.78 4.78 6.02 6.02 6.07

2041 6.03 4.77 4.77 6.01 6.01 6.08

2042 6.02 4.76 4.76 6.01 6.01 6.10

2043 6.02 4.76 4.76 6.00 6.00 6.12

2044 6.01 4.75 4.75 5.99 5.99 6.14

2045 6.01 4.74 4.74 5.99 5.99 6.16

2046 6.01 4.74 4.74 5.98 5.98 6.18

2047 6.00 4.73 4.73 5.98 5.98 6.21

2048 6.00 4.72 4.72 5.98 5.98 6.22

2049 6.00 4.72 4.72 5.98 5.98 6.22

2050 6.01 4.71 4.71 5.98 5.98 6.21

2051 6.01 4.70 4.70 5.98 5.98 6.21

2052 6.01 4.70 4.70 5.99 5.99 6.21

2053 6.02 4.69 4.69 6.00 6.00 6.21

2054 6.03 4.69 4.69 6.01 6.01 6.21

2055 6.05 4.68 4.68 6.02 6.02 6.20

2056 6.07 4.68 4.68 6.04 6.04 6.20

2057 6.08 4.67 4.67 6.05 6.05 6.20

2058 6.10 4.67 4.67 6.07 6.07 6.20

2059 6.12 4.67 4.67 6.09 6.09 6.20

2060 6.14 4.66 4.66 6.11 6.11 6.20

2061 6.16 4.66 4.66 6.13 6.13 6.20

2062 6.18 4.66 4.66 6.15 6.15 6.20

2063 6.19 4.65 4.65 6.16 6.16 6.20

2064 6.21 4.65 4.65 6.18 6.18 6.20

2065 6.22 4.64 4.64 6.19 6.19 6.19

2066 6.23 4.64 4.64 6.20 6.20 6.19

2067 6.25 4.64 4.64 6.22 6.22 6.19

2068 6.26 4.63 4.63 6.23 6.23 6.19

2069 6.27 4.63 4.63 6.24 6.24 6.19

2070 6.28 4.63 4.63 6.26 6.26 6.19

2071 6.30 4.62 4.62 6.27 6.27 6.19

2072 6.31 4.62 4.62 6.28 6.28 6.19

2073 6.32 4.62 4.62 6.29 6.29 6.19

2074 6.33 4.61 4.61 6.30 6.30 6.18

2075 6.33 4.61 4.61 6.30 6.30 6.18

2076 6.33 4.61 4.61 6.31 6.31 6.18

2077 6.33 4.60 4.60 6.31 6.31 6.18

2078 6.33 4.60 4.60 6.30 6.30 6.18

2079 6.32 4.59 4.59 6.29 6.29 6.18

2080 6.30 4.59 4.59 6.28 6.28 6.17

2081 6.29 4.59 4.59 6.26 6.26 6.17

2082 6.27 4.58 4.58 6.24 6.24 6.17

2083 6.25 4.58 4.58 6.22 6.22 6.16

2084 6.22 4.57 4.57 6.20 6.20 6.16

2085 6.20 4.57 4.57 6.17 6.17 6.16

2086 6.17 4.56 4.56 6.14 6.14 6.15

2087 6.14 4.56 4.56 6.12 6.12 6.15

2088 6.11 4.55 4.55 6.09 6.09 6.14

2089 6.08 4.55 4.55 6.06 6.06 6.14

2090 6.06 4.54 4.54 6.04 6.04 6.14

2091 6.04 4.54 4.54 6.01 6.01 6.13

2092 6.02 4.53 4.53 6.00 6.00 6.13

2093 6.00 4.53 4.53 5.98 5.98 6.13

2094 5.99 4.53 4.53 5.97 5.97 6.12

2095 5.99 4.52 4.52 5.96 5.96 6.12

2096 5.98 4.52 4.52 5.96 5.96 6.12

2097 5.98 4.52 4.52 5.96 5.96 6.12

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Note: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report.

Current Law OASDI Proposal OASDI

Calendar

Year

July 11, 2023
Table 1d - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Reserves / Unfunded Obligation (Present Value Dollars)

"Medicare and Social Security Fair Share Act", Introduced by Chairman Whitehouse and Ranking Member Boyle

Year

Current Law OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Total Change

Through

End of Year

Proposal OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) = cumulative sum(4) (6) = (1)+(5)

2023 2,713.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,713.0

2024 2,522.6 232.5 0.0 232.5 232.5 2,755.0

2025 2,318.9 255.2 -0.3 255.5 487.9 2,806.9

2026 2,102.7 269.6 -0.4 270.0 758.0 2,860.7

2027 1,868.6 283.2 -0.5 283.7 1,041.7 2,910.3

2028 1,616.7 294.1 -0.6 294.7 1,336.4 2,953.1

2029 1,347.3 304.1 -0.8 304.9 1,641.3 2,988.6

2030 1,061.3 313.9 -1.0 314.9 1,956.2 3,017.5

2031 761.5 323.3 -1.3 324.6 2,280.8 3,042.3

2032 447.8 332.5 -1.6 334.1 2,614.9 3,062.7

2033 122.1 339.4 -1.9 341.4 2,956.3 3,078.4

2034 -213.2 344.5 -2.3 346.8 3,303.1 3,089.9

2035 -555.4 348.6 -2.7 351.3 3,654.4 3,099.0

2036 -902.4 352.7 -3.1 355.8 4,010.2 3,107.8

2037 -1,254.1 356.5 -3.4 359.9 4,370.0 3,116.0

2038 -1,608.5 360.5 -3.7 364.3 4,734.3 3,125.8

2039 -1,964.5 364.6 -4.0 368.6 5,103.0 3,138.4

2040 -2,320.7 368.7 -4.3 373.1 5,476.0 3,155.4

2041 -2,675.8 373.2 -4.6 377.8 5,853.8 3,178.0

2042 -3,029.0 377.7 -4.9 382.6 6,236.4 3,207.5

2043 -3,380.1 382.1 -5.2 387.2 6,623.6 3,243.6

2044 -3,729.4 386.8 -5.4 392.2 7,015.8 3,286.4

2045 -4,077.1 391.7 -5.6 397.3 7,413.1 3,336.0

2046 -4,423.4 396.7 -5.9 402.6 7,815.7 3,392.3

2047 -4,768.7 402.1 -6.1 408.2 8,224.0 3,455.3

2048 -5,113.1 403.9 -6.3 410.2 8,634.2 3,521.1

2049 -5,457.2 402.5 -6.5 409.0 9,043.2 3,586.0

2050 -5,801.2 401.0 -6.7 407.6 9,450.8 3,649.6

2051 -6,145.1 399.4 -6.8 406.3 9,857.1 3,711.9

2052 -6,489.8 397.8 -7.0 404.8 10,261.9 3,772.1

2053 -6,835.9 396.2 -7.1 403.3 10,665.2 3,829.4

2054 -7,183.9 394.6 -7.2 401.8 11,067.0 3,883.1

2055 -7,534.7 392.9 -7.3 400.2 11,467.2 3,932.5

2056 -7,888.6 391.2 -7.4 398.6 11,865.8 3,977.1

2057 -8,246.0 389.4 -7.5 396.9 12,262.7 4,016.7

2058 -8,607.1 387.7 -7.5 395.2 12,657.9 4,050.7

2059 -8,972.0 386.0 -7.5 393.5 13,051.4 4,079.4

2060 -9,340.3 384.3 -7.5 391.8 13,443.2 4,103.0

2061 -9,711.5 382.6 -7.5 390.1 13,833.3 4,121.9

2062 -10,085.2 380.9 -7.4 388.4 14,221.7 4,136.5

2063 -10,461.1 378.9 -7.4 386.3 14,608.0 4,146.9

2064 -10,838.7 377.0 -7.3 384.3 14,992.3 4,153.5

2065 -11,218.0 374.9 -7.2 382.1 15,374.4 4,156.5

2066 -11,598.6 372.9 -7.1 380.1 15,754.5 4,155.9

2067 -11,980.4 370.9 -7.0 378.0 16,132.5 4,152.1

2068 -12,363.4 369.0 -6.9 376.0 16,508.4 4,145.1

2069 -12,747.5 367.0 -6.8 373.9 16,882.3 4,134.7

2070 -13,132.8 365.0 -6.7 371.7 17,254.0 4,121.2

2071 -13,518.8 362.9 -6.6 369.6 17,623.6 4,104.8

2072 -13,905.3 360.9 -6.5 367.4 17,991.0 4,085.7

2073 -14,292.2 358.8 -6.4 365.2 18,356.2 4,064.0

2074 -14,679.2 356.8 -6.3 363.1 18,719.3 4,040.1

2075 -15,065.7 354.8 -6.2 361.0 19,080.3 4,014.6

2076 -15,450.9 352.7 -6.1 358.9 19,439.2 3,988.3

2077 -15,834.0 350.7 -6.0 356.8 19,795.9 3,961.9

2078 -16,214.3 348.8 -5.9 354.7 20,150.7 3,936.4

2079 -16,590.8 346.9 -5.8 352.8 20,503.4 3,912.7

2080 -16,962.8 345.1 -5.7 350.8 20,854.3 3,891.4

2081 -17,330.0 343.3 -5.6 348.9 21,203.2 3,873.2

2082 -17,691.7 341.5 -5.5 347.0 21,550.2 3,858.5

2083 -18,047.7 339.7 -5.4 345.1 21,895.3 3,847.7

2084 -18,397.4 337.9 -5.4 343.3 22,238.6 3,841.2

2085 -18,740.7 336.2 -5.3 341.5 22,580.1 3,839.4

2086 -19,077.2 334.6 -5.2 339.7 22,919.9 3,842.6

2087 -19,406.9 332.9 -5.1 338.0 23,257.9 3,850.9

2088 -19,729.9 331.3 -5.0 336.3 23,594.2 3,864.3

2089 -20,046.4 329.7 -4.9 334.6 23,928.8 3,882.4

2090 -20,357.0 328.0 -4.9 332.9 24,261.7 3,904.7

2091 -20,662.3 326.4 -4.8 331.2 24,592.9 3,930.5

2092 -20,963.0 324.7 -4.7 329.5 24,922.3 3,959.3

2093 -21,259.9 323.0 -4.7 327.7 25,250.0 3,990.1

2094 -21,553.7 321.3 -4.6 326.0 25,576.0 4,022.2

2095 -21,845.0 319.6 -4.6 324.2 25,900.2 4,055.2

2096 -22,134.3 317.9 -4.6 322.4 26,222.6 4,088.3

2097 -22,422.2 316.1 -4.5 320.6 26,543.2 4,121.0

Total 2023-2097 26,163.0 -380.3 26,543.2

Office of the Chief Actuary

Notes: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration

 Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.3%. July 11, 2023

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2023
Table 1d.n - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Reserves / Unfunded Obligation (Nominal Dollars)

"Medicare and Social Security Fair Share Act", Introduced by Chairman Whitehouse and Ranking Member Boyle

Year

Current Law OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Total Change

Through

End of Year1

Proposal OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) (6) = (1)+(5)

2023 2,776.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,776.7

2024 2,642.8 243.6 0.0 243.6 243.6 2,886.4

2025 2,487.7 279.8 -0.3 280.1 523.7 3,011.5

2026 2,312.0 309.9 -0.4 310.3 834.0 3,146.1

2027 2,108.7 341.9 -0.5 342.5 1,176.5 3,285.2

2028 1,875.1 373.9 -0.7 374.7 1,551.2 3,426.2

2029 1,608.3 408.0 -1.0 409.0 1,960.2 3,568.5

2030 1,306.2 445.7 -1.2 447.0 2,407.1 3,713.3

2031 968.3 486.6 -1.6 488.2 2,895.3 3,863.6

2032 589.9 530.0 -2.1 532.1 3,427.4 4,017.3

Notes: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

 Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.3%. Social Security Administration

1 Includes the effect of accumulated interest income. July 11, 2023

(Billions of Nominal Dollars)