Social Security Actuarial Status

The 2021 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees 

of the OASI and DI Trust Funds

Key Changes and Results Under Intermediate Assumptions

STEVE GOSS, CHIEF ACTUARY, SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION

NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SOCIAL INSURANCE

BRIEFING ON SOCIAL SECURITY FINANCING, BENEFITS, AND EQUITY 

SEPTEMBER 9, 2021
What is the Legislative Mandate for the 

Annual Report?

1. Trust Fund operations of the past year and the next five 

years

2. Actuarial status of the trust funds

◦ This means the ability to meet the cost of scheduled benefits 

with scheduled revenue and trust fund reserves

◦ And the extent to which scheduled revenue would fall short 

under current law, indicating the size of legislative changes that 

will be needed

2
Changes This Year Due to Pandemic/ Recession 

The projections in the 2021 Trustees Report include the Trustees’ best estimates of the effects of the COVID-19 

pandemic and ensuing recession, which were not reflected in the 2020 report. Earlier updates were provided by 

OCACT on November 24, 2020 at https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/solvency/UpdatedBaseline_20201124.pdf

1. Lower employment and earnings in the near term, through 2023

However, the average wage index increases by about 2.7% for 2020

2. Increased deaths in 2020 through 2023

3.Delays in births and immigration

4. Lower applications for benefits, particularly disability

5.A permanent loss in the level of worker productivity, as in other 

recessions

3
Changes This Year Due to Pandemic/Recession–

Any Changes Since TR21 Assumptions Were Set?

1. Lower employment and earnings in the near term, through 2023

Consistent—so far. Except December 2021 COLA is expected to be closer to 6% than 3.1%.

2. Increased deaths in 2020 through 2023

Consistent so far into 2021 but uncertain thereafter. 

3. Delays in births and immigration 

Preliminary indication of higher births than assumed in 2021.

4. Lower applications for benefits, particularly disability

Continuing so far, and may start back up with end of extended payments.

5. A permanent loss in the level of worker productivity, as in other 

recessions Too soon to tell. 

4
1918: Three Waves COVID-19: So Far

5

Source: The Spanish Flu and the Stock Market: The Pandemic of 1919

by Bryan Taylor | Feb 27, 2020 | Economics, Historical, Insights

Figure 1. Death Rates of the Spanish Flu, June 1918 to May 1919

Source: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker
Death Reporting Lags Date of Death Estimated Complete—Rising

6

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

202001202004202007202010202013202016202019202022202025202028202031202034202037202040202043202046202049202052202102202105202108202111202114202117202120202123202126202129202132

US Weekly Deaths Est Complete: Diff from 52/104 Weeks Prior

US Total Weekly Deaths Estimated Complete: Difference from 52/104 Weeks Prior

US Weekly Deaths Excluding Influenza, Pneumonia, or COVID Est Complete: Difference from 52/104 Weeks Prior

US Weekly Deaths from Influenza, Pneumonia, or COVID Est Complete: Difference from 52/104 Weeks Prior

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

202001

202003202005

202007

202009202011

202013202015

202017

202019202021

202023

202025202027202029202031202033202035202037202039202041202043202045202047202049

202051202053

202102

202104202106

202108202110

202112

202114202116

202118

202120202122

202124

202126202128202130202132

US Total Weekly Deaths: Ratio to 52/104 Weeks PriorAt Date of CDC Report

14-Aug 28-Aug Estimated Complete

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Primary Changes This Year: Longer Term

1. Birth rates: change to projecting by “cohort” rather than by year

a) Reflects the continuing trend for women having children at older ages

b) Lower annual birth rates through 2036, reaching ultimate 2.0 in 2056

2. Employment: Updated labor force model to include latest economic cycle

a) Lower labor force and unemployment rate with little net effect

3. Death rates: added dementia as a category and reduced rates of improvement 

for cardiovascular disease

4. Lower revenue from taxation of benefits per recent experience (Treasury OTA)

5. Methods changes, primarily for average benefit levels

7
Changes in Timing of Trust Fund Reserve

Depletion

Mainly from the pandemic/recession in the first 10 to 20 years

1.OASDI reserve depletion is 2034, one year earlier than last 

year’s report (but 78 percent of scheduled benefits still payable)

2.OASI reserve depletion is 2033, one year earlier than last 

year’s report (but 76 percent of scheduled benefits still payable)

3.DI reserve depletion is 2057, 8 years earlier than last year’s 

report (but 91 percent of scheduled benefits still payable)

8
Changes in OASDI Actuarial Balance

in 2021 Report

•Valuation Period - 0.06 percent

•Legislation (restore and maintain the DACA program) - 0.01 percent

•Demographic data, assumptions and methods - 0.01 percent • New cohort fertility method and higher ultimate fertility rate (roughly offsetting cost effects) • New dementia cause of death category • Higher recent and projected near-term mortality due to COVID-19 pandemic

•Economic data, assumptions and methods - 0.09 percent • Updated labor force projection model and lower ultimate unemployment rate

• Slightly faster real growth in average wage levels • Lower near-term real interest rates • Level of productivity and GDP permanently lowered by 1 percent due to recession

• Reduced level of revenue from taxation of benefits

•Other new data and methods improvements - 0.16 percent

Net Changes for All Reasons -0.32 percent

9
Solvency: OASI+DI 

Trust Fund Reserve 

Depletion in 2034 

(one year earlier than last year)

Reserve depletion date varied 

from 2029 to 2042 in reports 

over the past 30 years (1992-

2021).

DI Trust Fund: reserve depletion 

in 2057, eight years earlier than 

last year.

Due largely to less revenue 

being projected for the DI 

program in the near-term. DI 

program continues to have low 

recent and near-term disability 

applications and awards.

10

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

450%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

Calendar Year

Social Security Trust Fund Ratios

Assets as a Percent of Annual Cost

Trustees Report Intermediate Projections

2021 TR DI

2020 TR DI

2021 TR OASI

2020 TR OASI

2021 TR OASDI

2020 TR OASDI

Historical Projected

Tax Rate

Reallocation
OASDI Annual Cost 

and Non-Interest 

Income as Percent 

of Taxable Payroll

Persistent negative annual 

cash-flow balance starting in 

2010.

78 percent of scheduled 

benefits still payable at trust 

fund reserve depletion.

Annual deficit in 2095: 4.34 

percent of payroll: 0.21 

percent smaller than last 

year

11

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095

Calendar Year

OASDI Non-Interest Income, Cost and Expenditures 

as Percentages of Taxable Payroll

Cost: Scheduled and 

payable benefits

Cost: Scheduled but not fully 

payable benefits

Non-interest Income Expenditures: Payable benefits = income 

after trust fund depletion in 2034

Payable benefits as percent 

of scheduled benefits:

2020-33: 100%

2034: 78%

2095: 74%

Historical Projected
SUSTAINABILITY: 

Cost as percent 

of GDP

Rises from a 4.2 percent 

average in 1990-2008, to a 

peak of about 6.2 percent for 

2077, and then decline to 5.9 

percent by 2095.

12

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Calendar Year

OASDI Cost and Non-Interest Income as a Percentage of GDP

Historical Projected

Cost

Non-interest Income
Aging - Change 

in Age 

Distribution

Mainly due to drop in 

birth rates

13

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Aged Dependency Ratio 2021 TR

Population 65+/(20-64) 

Actual and TR Intermediate

TFR remains at 3.0 after 1964

TFR remains at 3.3 after 1964

Historical Projected
14

Chart 1.3: Historical and Projected Period Total Fertility Rates

Birth Rates Projected Lower Through 2036 for 2021 TR: Ultimate TFR 

2.0: Below Current Expectations—Higher 75-Year Deficit
Mortality 

Experience: All 

Ages

Increased mortality in 

the near-term to reflect 

the effects of the 

COVID-19 pandemic.

15

700

750

800

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Age-Sex-Adjusted Death Rates (per 100,000)

Total, All Ages

2019TR 2020TR 2021TR Actual
Ratio of 

Employment to 

Population

Expected to recover fully from 

the brief but steep recession. 

Expected to rise to same 

overall level as in the 2020TR. 

Under the new labor force 

model, difference between 

men and women narrowed 

somewhat. Slightly lower 

LFPR is offset by lower 

expected average 

unemployment rate, 

consistent with recent 

experience.

16

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091

Ratio of Employment to Population 

(16 and older, age-sex-adjusted to 2011 population)

2020 TR

2021 TR

Age-sex-adjusted

Men (age-adjusted)

Women (age-adjusted)

Historical Projected
Lower Potential 

GDP in 2021 TR 

Compared to 

2020 TR

Potential GDP is roughly 1 

percent lower than the level 

in the 2020 TR.

Reflects expectation of a 

permanent level shift due to 

effects of the recession on 

total economy labor 

productivity and size of the 

population ages 16+.

17

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

Potential GDP

(billions of 2012 dollars, intermediate assumptions)

2010 TR

2020 TR

2021 TR

Historical Projected
Disabled Worker Receipt Rates (at DDS) have Been 

Dropping Since 1990 at Older Ages, and at All Ages Lately

18

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Receipts per 1,000 exposed

Fiscal year

Male Title II Disabled Worker DDS Receipt Rates

by 5-Year Age Groups per 1,000 exposed

60-64

55-59

50-54

45-49

35-44

25-34

Under 25

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Receipts per 1,000 exposed

Fiscal year

Female Title II Disabled Worker DDS Receipt Rates 

by 5-Year Age Groups per 1,000 exposed

60-64

55-59

50-54

45-49

35-44

25-34

Under 25
Applications for 

Disability 

Benefits Remain 

Historically Low

At the peak of the last 

economic cycle in 2007, 

applications were low, but 

increased rapidly in the 2008 

recession from 1.5 million in 

2007 to 1.9 million in 2010.

In 2016 through 2020, 

applications have dropped 

below the 2007 level.

19

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

(millions)

Social Security Disabled Worker Receipts at Disability Determination 

Services by Calendar Year: Historical and Intermediate Assumptions 

for 2012 through 2021 Trustees Reports

2012TR

2017TR

2016TR

2015TR

2014TR

2013TR

2018TR 2019TR

2020TR

2021TR
Disability 

Incidence Rate 

Also Remains 

Historically Low

DI disabled worker incidence 

rate rose sharply in the 2008 

recession, and has declined 

since the peak in 2010 to 

extraordinarily low levels in 

2016 through 2020.

20

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

DI Age-Sex-Adjusted Incidence Rates:

Historical and Intermediate Assumptions for 2012 through 2021 Trustees Report

2012TR

2013TR

2014TR

2015TR

2016TR

2017TR

Average 1990-2020 5.10

Ultimate Assumption 5.00

2018TR

2019TR

2020TR

2021TR
Fewer Disabled 

Worker 

Beneficiaries

Fewer now and in near 

term based on recent 

applications and 

incidence rates.

21

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028

Calendar Year

Disabled Worker Beneficiaries

In Current Payment Status at End of Year (in thousands)

2008 TR (no recession)

2020 TR

2021 TR
How to Eliminate the Social Security 

Long-Term Actuarial Deficit

Make choices addressing OASDI shortfall 2034-2095:

• Raise scheduled revenue after 2033 by about one-third

• Reduce scheduled benefits after 2033 by about one-fourth

• Or some combination of the two

As always, we note that enacting changes sooner allows 

more possibilities, more gradual phase-in, and more 

advance notice

22
For More Information Go to 

http://www.ssa.gov/oact/

• There you will find:

• This and all prior OASDI Trustees Reports

• Detailed single-year tables for recent reports

• Our estimates for comprehensive proposals and individual provisions

• Actuarial notes; including replacement rates

• Actuarial studies; including stochastic

• Extensive databases

• Congressional testimonies

• Presentations by OCACT employees

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