SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE MD 21235-0001

 

October 4, 2013

The Honorable Paul Ryan 

House of Representatives

Washington, D.C. 20515 

Dear Mr. Ryan: 

Thank you for your letter yesterday requesting information related to the fiscal effects of the 

Social Security Amendments of 1983. Ted McCann of your staff has indicated that for now it 

will suffice to provide a preliminary estimate of the fiscal effects for just the change in the 

normal retirement age (NRA). The 1983 amendments increased the NRA from age 65 to age 67 

between 2000 and 2022. This one provision accounted for about one-third of the total net effect 

on the Social Security Trust Funds of the 1983 amendments. Thus, while the timing of the 

various provisions varied, the overall long-range effect of the amendments as a whole is about 

three times the indicated effects for changing the NRA alone.

The enclosed table provides rough preliminary estimates of the net effect of the increase in NRA 

for years 2000 through 2087 (the last year of the current 75-year long-range projection period). 

Estimates are provided in current dollars for calendar years 2000 through 2023, in present value 

discounted or accumulated dollars to January 1, 2013, and as a percent of gross domestic product 

(GDP). The total effect in current dollar cash flow on the OASDI Trust Funds is about $97 

billion for 2000 through 2012 and an additional $451 billion for 2013 through 2023. In present 

value, the long-range effect of the NRA increase provision through 2087 is $4.7 trillion. The 

effect is projected to reach 0.5 percent of GDP by 2037, and to be 0.38 percent of GDP for the 

period 2000 to 2087 as a whole. Please note that net effects on the trust funds include reductions 

in OASI benefits, additional DI benefits, and payroll tax revenue from additional work by some 

individuals who delay the start of their benefits as a result of the increased NRA. All estimates 

are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2013 Trustees Report. 

I hope these estimates will be helpful. Please let us know if we may be of further assistance. 

 Sincerely,

 Stephen C. Goss 

 Chief Actuary

Enclosures 
Calendar Years

Net OASDI Savings in 

Current Dollars

Net OASDI Savings in 

Present Value Dollars (to 

January, 1, 2013)

Net OASDI Savings as 

Percent of Gross 

Domestic Product

billions billions percent

2000-2012 $96.9 $107.7 0.05%

2013-2023 450.5 353.3 0.18%

2000-2087 NA 4,697.0 0.38%

2000 0.5 0.9 0.01%

2001 1.1 1.7 0.01%

2002 1.8 2.5 0.02%

2003 2.4 3.3 0.02%

2004 3.4 4.5 0.03%

2005 4.2 5.4 0.03%

2006 5.4 6.5 0.04%

2007 6.4 7.4 0.05%

2008 9.4 10.5 0.07%

2009 12.4 13.4 0.09%

2010 14.6 15.4 0.10%

2011 16.4 16.9 0.11%

2012 18.9 19.2 0.12%

2013 21.0 20.6 0.13%

2014 23.3 22.0 0.14%

2015 25.8 23.6 0.14%

2016 28.1 24.8 0.15%

2017 32.8 27.9 0.16%

2018 37.8 31.1 0.18%

2019 42.7 33.7 0.19%

2020 48.8 37.0 0.21%

2021 56.2 41.0 0.23%

2022 62.6 43.8 0.24%

2023 71.4 47.8 0.26%

2024 50.5 0.28%

2025 56.4 0.31%

2026 61.5 0.34%

2027 65.0 0.37%

2028 67.8 0.38%

2029 70.4 0.40%

2030 72.3 0.42%

2031 74.0 0.44%

2032 74.9 0.45%

2033 75.8 0.46%

2034 76.6 0.47%

2035 78.0 0.48%

2036 78.0 0.49%

2037 78.5 0.50%

2038 79.0 0.50%

2039 78.0 0.50%

2040 78.3 0.51%

2041 77.9 0.51%

2042 78.2 0.52%

2043 78.4 0.53%

2044 78.0 0.53%

2045 77.6 0.53%

2046 77.2 0.54%

2047 76.7 0.54%

2048 76.2 0.54%

2049 75.1 0.54%

2050 74.6 0.54%

2051 74.2 0.55%

2052 73.8 0.55%

2053 72.8 0.55%

2054 71.9 0.55%

2055 71.0 0.55%

2056 69.6 0.54%

2057 68.8 0.54%

2058 68.0 0.54%

2059 67.6 0.55%

2060 67.3 0.55%

2061 66.4 0.55%

2062 65.6 0.55%

2063 64.7 0.55%

2064 63.9 0.55%

2065 63.1 0.55%

2066 62.4 0.55%

2067 61.7 0.55%

2068 61.4 0.56%

2069 60.7 0.56%

2070 60.0 0.56%

2071 59.3 0.56%

2072 58.6 0.56%

2073 57.9 0.55%

2074 57.2 0.55%

2075 56.4 0.55%

2076 55.7 0.55%

2077 55.3 0.56%

2078 54.5 0.55%

2079 53.8 0.55%

2080 53.1 0.55%

2081 52.3 0.55%

2082 51.7 0.55%

2083 51.2 0.55%

2084 50.6 0.55%

2085 50.0 0.55%

2086 49.5 0.56%

2087 49.0 0.56%

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2013 OASDI Trustees Report

 Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

 October 4, 2013

Preliminary Estimates of the Net Savings to the OASDI Program from the Increase in the 

Normal Retirement Age Enacted in the 1983 Social Security Amendments