SOCIAL SECURITY

MEMORANDUM

Date: October 10, 2003 Refer To: TCA

To: Robert M. Ball

From: Stephen C. Goss

Chief Actuary

Subject: Estimated OASDI Financial Effects for Two Provisions that Would Improve Social Security 

Financing Plus a Balancing Tax-Rate Increase--INFORMATION

This memorandum provides estimates for a proposal that you have outlined. The attached tables 

1.0 and 1.1 provide estimates of the effects of two basic provisions (tables 1.0) plus the effects of 

an additional possible increase in the combined OASDI payroll tax rate that would achieve 

solvency for the 75-year projection period (tables 1.1). All estimates reflect the intermediate 

assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report. These estimates reflect contributions from many 

individuals in the Office of the Chief Actuary, particularly Alice Wade, Jason Schultz, Bill Piet, 

and Chris Chaplain.

Two Basic Provisions Alone

Tables 1.0 provide estimates of the financial effects on the OASDI program of two basic 

provisions that you have described. The total effect of these provisions, including interaction, 

would be to reduce the size of the 75-year actuarial deficit by 0.94 percent of payroll, from 1.92 

to 0.97 percent of payroll.

Briefly described, the two provisions are:

1. Increase the OASDI contribution and benefit base by an additional 2 percent (beyond 

wage indexing) for years 2004 through 2036. This change is projected to result in 

90 percent of OASDI covered earnings being taxable for 2036 and later. About 

6 percent of covered workers have earnings above the current-law taxable maximum 

each year, and would thus be affected by this provision. This provision alone would 

reduce the OASDI actuarial deficit by an estimated 0.61 percent of payroll.

2. Effective December 2004, base the OASDI COLA on a new CPI-W series that would 

reflect a superlative formula, of the type currently used for the new “chained” 

CCPI-U. This provision is assumed to reduce the OASDI annual COLA by an 

average of 0.22 percentage point. This provision alone would reduce the OASDI 

actuarial deficit by an estimated 0.35 percent of payroll.

Table 1.0, attached, provides certain projected measures of the actuarial status of the OASDI 

program assuming that these two provisions would be enacted. With enactment of these two 
2

provisions alone, the year in which the annual cost of the program begins to exceed the 

annual income would be advanced 2 years, from 2018 under current law, to 2020. The 

estimated year of combined OASDI Trust Fund exhaustion would be advanced by 13 years, 

from 2042 under current law, to 2055. 

Table 1.0a provides estimated annual income (non-interest, interest, and total), outgo, and 

assets at the end of the year in current dollars, under the provisions of the proposal. This 

table also provides estimated OASDI effective taxable payroll under the proposal. 

Table 1.0b provides the estimated effect of enacting these two provisions only on the 

Federal Unified Budget. It should be noted that all estimates in this table are based on the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2003 OASDI Trustees Report, and thus do not match 

estimates presented by the Office of Management and Budget. Table 1.0c provides the 

estimates effect of enacting these 2 provisions on the net cash flow from the OASDI 

combined Trust Funds to the General Fund of the Treasury. For the purpose of the 

illustration in Table 1.0c, the OASDI program is assumed to receive transfers or to have the 

authority to borrow from the General Fund of the Treasury in order to maintain full payment 

of scheduled benefits after Trust Fund exhaustion. This is true for both the proposal, and for 

the comparative illustration to a “Theoretical Social Security with PAYGO transfers.” 

Two Provisions Plus a Balancing Tax-Rate Increase

Tables 1.1 provide estimates for a more complete proposal, which includes, in addition to the 

two provisions described above, a payroll tax-rate increase of 1.22 percent for employers and 

employees, each (for a total combined increase of 2.44 percent) in 2038. This is the year in 

which the nominal dollar level of Trust Fund assets would begin to decline with the two 

provisions alone (see table 1.0a). The tax-rate increase in table 1.1 is computed to achieve 

exact actuarial balance for the 75-year period 2003 through 2077. However, estimates for 

this proposal show a declining trust fund ratio (TFR) at the end of the period 75-year period. 

Thus, with this single “balancing tax-rate increase” added to the two basic provisions, the 

proposal would not achieve sustainable solvency. However, if the proposal is amended to 

include additional periodic balancing tax-rate increases based on achieving OASDI actuarial 

balance under the projections of subsequent Trustees Reports, then sustainable solvency 

would be achieved.

Tables 1.1a, 1.1b, and 1.1c provide estimated effects on annual trust fund operations, the 

Federal Unified Budget, and on the net cash flow from the OASDI combined Trust Funds to 

the General Fund of the Treasury. 

 

Stephen C. Goss

Attachments
Table 1.0 Robert Ball Proposal--Two Provisions Only

 With Ult Real TF Int Rate of 3.0

 Change

in OASDI OASDI

Cost Income Annual TFR Contrib Contrib

Year Rate Rate Balance 1-1-yr Rate Rate

2003 10.89 12.73 1.83 288 12.40

2004 10.78 12.70 1.91 309 12.40

2005 10.65 12.71 2.06 331 12.40

2006 10.51 12.70 2.20 355 12.40

2007 10.47 12.72 2.25 378 12.40

2008 10.48 12.73 2.25 400 12.40

2009 10.53 12.74 2.20 422 12.40

2010 10.63 12.76 2.13 442 12.40

2011 10.75 12.82 2.07 460 12.40

2012 10.91 12.81 1.90 477 12.40

2013 11.11 12.83 1.72 490 12.40

2014 11.32 12.84 1.52 501 12.40

2015 11.56 12.86 1.30 510 12.40

2016 11.83 12.88 1.05 515 12.40

2017 12.12 12.90 0.78 518 12.40

2018 12.42 12.91 0.50 518 12.40

2019 12.71 12.93 0.22 516 12.40

2020 13.03 12.95 -0.08 512 12.40

2021 13.35 12.97 -0.38 506 12.40

2022 13.65 12.99 -0.66 498 12.40

2023 13.93 13.01 -0.92 491 12.40

2024 14.19 13.03 -1.17 482 12.40

2025 14.45 13.04 -1.41 472 12.40

2026 14.69 13.06 -1.63 461 12.40

2027 14.91 13.07 -1.84 450 12.40

2028 15.13 13.09 -2.03 438 12.40

2029 15.32 13.11 -2.21 425 12.40

2030 15.48 13.12 -2.36 412 12.40

2031 15.62 13.13 -2.49 399 12.40

2032 15.74 13.14 -2.59 386 12.40

2033 15.83 13.15 -2.68 373 12.40

2034 15.91 13.16 -2.75 360 12.40

2035 15.97 13.17 -2.80 346 12.40

2036 16.01 13.17 -2.84 333 12.40

2037 16.07 13.18 -2.89 319 12.40

2038 16.11 13.18 -2.92 306 12.40

2039 16.14 13.19 -2.95 292 12.40

2040 16.17 13.19 -2.98 278 12.40

2041 16.20 13.20 -3.00 264 12.40

2042 16.23 13.20 -3.03 249 12.40

2043 16.27 13.21 -3.06 234 12.40

2044 16.31 13.21 -3.10 219 12.40

2045 16.36 13.22 -3.14 203 12.40

2046 16.42 13.22 -3.20 187 12.40

2047 16.48 13.23 -3.25 170 12.40

2048 16.54 13.24 -3.31 153 12.40

2049 16.61 13.24 -3.37 135 12.40

2050 16.68 13.25 -3.43 117 12.40

2051 16.76 13.26 -3.51 98 12.40

2052 16.85 13.26 -3.59 78 12.40

2053 16.93 13.27 -3.66 58 12.40

2054 17.02 13.28 -3.74 38 12.40

2055 17.10 13.28 -3.81 17 12.40

2056 17.18 13.29 -3.89 -- 12.40

2057 17.25 13.30 -3.96 -- 12.40

2058 17.32 13.30 -4.02 -- 12.40

2059 17.38 13.31 -4.07 -- 12.40

2060 17.44 13.31 -4.13 -- 12.40

2061 17.49 13.32 -4.18 -- 12.40

2062 17.55 13.32 -4.23 -- 12.40

2063 17.61 13.33 -4.28 -- 12.40

2064 17.67 13.33 -4.34 -- 12.40

2065 17.73 13.34 -4.39 -- 12.40

2066 17.79 13.34 -4.45 -- 12.40

2067 17.85 13.35 -4.51 -- 12.40

2068 17.92 13.35 -4.57 -- 12.40

2069 17.98 13.36 -4.62 -- 12.40

2070 18.04 13.36 -4.68 -- 12.40

2071 18.11 13.36 -4.75 -- 12.40

2072 18.18 13.37 -4.81 -- 12.40

2073 18.24 13.37 -4.87 -- 12.40

2074 18.30 13.38 -4.92 -- 12.40

2075 18.37 13.38 -4.98 -- 12.40

2076 18.43 13.39 -5.04 -- 12.40

2077 18.49 13.39 -5.10 -- 12.40

2078 18.55 13.39 -5.15 -- 12.40

 Summarized

CostRt IncRt ActBal Change in

OASDI OASDI OASDI ActBal

2003-27 12.49 14.28 1.79 0.53

2003-52 13.92 13.82 -0.10 0.85

2003-77 14.69 13.71 -0.97 0.94 Office of the Actuary

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report Social Security Administration

 With Ult Real Int Rate of 3.00 September 29, 2003
Table 1.0 a OASDI Tax Income, Outgo, and Net Cash Flow Balance-- for Proposal

OASDI

Income Assets at Effective

Excluding Interest Total End of Taxable

Year Interest Income Income Outgo Year Payroll

Billions of nominal (current) dollars

2003 555.9 87.5 643.4 477.9 1,543.5 4,389

2004 584.2 97.5 681.6 499.1 1,726.0 4,630

2005 621.2 109.6 730.8 521.6 1,935.3 4,901

2006 657.5 123.7 781.2 545.6 2,170.8 5,196

2007 696.8 139.4 836.2 574.6 2,432.4 5,493

2008 735.9 156.2 892.1 607.3 2,717.2 5,800

2009 776.6 173.7 950.4 644.1 3,023.5 6,117

2010 818.8 192.4 1,011.1 684.1 3,350.5 6,440

2011 865.9 212.1 1,078.0 728.0 3,700.5 6,773

2012 909.0 233.1 1,142.2 775.8 4,066.9 7,112

2013 955.9 255.0 1,210.9 829.4 4,448.4 7,469

2014 1,004.4 277.6 1,282.0 887.2 4,843.2 7,838

2015 1,054.6 300.8 1,355.4 949.7 5,249.0 8,219

2016 1,106.5 324.5 1,431.0 1,018.3 5,661.7 8,612

2017 1,161.0 348.3 1,509.3 1,092.7 6,078.3 9,023

2018 1,217.8 373.1 1,590.9 1,172.8 6,496.4 9,451

2019 1,277.4 397.9 1,675.3 1,257.8 6,913.9 9,899

2020 1,339.4 422.6 1,762.0 1,349.6 7,326.3 10,364

2021 1,404.7 446.8 1,851.5 1,448.0 7,729.9 10,854

2022 1,472.3 470.4 1,942.7 1,550.3 8,122.2 11,359

2023 1,543.0 493.4 2,036.4 1,654.9 8,503.7 11,888

2024 1,616.6 515.7 2,132.2 1,764.7 8,871.2 12,438

2025 1,693.5 537.0 2,230.6 1,879.3 9,222.5 13,013

2026 1,774.0 557.5 2,331.5 1,998.7 9,555.3 13,615

2027 1,858.5 576.6 2,435.2 2,123.7 9,866.8 14,246

2028 1,947.2 594.4 2,541.6 2,253.8 10,154.6 14,907

2029 2,039.7 610.9 2,650.6 2,387.8 10,417.3 15,598

2030 2,136.6 625.8 2,762.3 2,525.5 10,654.2 16,323

2031 2,238.1 639.1 2,877.3 2,666.8 10,864.6 17,083

2032 2,344.2 650.9 2,995.1 2,812.0 11,047.7 17,878

2033 2,455.2 661.1 3,116.3 2,960.8 11,203.2 18,712

2034 2,570.8 669.6 3,240.4 3,113.4 11,330.2 19,580

2035 2,691.5 676.4 3,367.9 3,270.1 11,428.0 20,488

2036 2,817.6 681.5 3,499.1 3,431.3 11,495.8 21,439

2037 2,945.1 684.6 3,629.7 3,597.0 11,528.6 22,396

2038 3,078.4 685.7 3,764.2 3,767.6 11,525.2 23,400

2039 3,216.9 684.6 3,901.5 3,943.9 11,482.8 24,443

2040 3,361.0 681.0 4,042.0 4,126.8 11,398.0 25,528

2041 3,511.2 674.8 4,186.0 4,317.8 11,266.3 26,660

2042 3,668.0 665.7 4,333.7 4,517.8 11,082.2 27,840

2043 3,831.4 653.4 4,484.8 4,727.9 10,839.1 29,070

2044 4,001.9 637.3 4,639.2 4,948.9 10,529.4 30,353

2045 4,178.9 617.0 4,795.9 5,181.8 10,143.5 31,683

2046 4,363.8 591.9 4,955.7 5,427.2 9,671.9 33,070

2047 4,556.6 561.5 5,118.1 5,685.3 9,104.7 34,515

2048 4,757.9 525.1 5,283.0 5,956.1 8,431.6 36,024

2049 4,967.7 482.2 5,449.8 6,241.0 7,640.4 37,594

2050 5,186.3 431.8 5,618.1 6,541.3 6,717.2 39,229

2051 5,414.2 373.2 5,787.5 6,858.4 5,646.2 40,931

2052 5,652.7 305.5 5,958.2 7,193.0 4,411.4 42,712

2053 5,901.7 227.5 6,129.2 7,543.2 2,997.4 44,569

2054 6,161.3 138.5 6,299.8 7,910.1 1,387.2 46,506

2055 48,532

2056 50,645

2057 52,850

2058 55,157

2059 57,562

2060 60,073

2061 62,692

2062 65,420

2063 68,271

2064 71,245

2065 74,341

2066 77,572

2067 80,936

2068 84,447

2069 88,107

2070 91,922

2071 95,895

2072 100,038

2073 104,357

2074 108,863

2075 113,560

2076 118,455

2077 123,560

2078 128,884

Office of the Actuary

Social Security Administration

 September 29, 2003
Table 1.0 b Unified Budget Effects of Proposal 

 Change Change Change

 Changes in Annual in Debt in Ann

 in OASDI UnifBudg Held by UnifBudg

 Year CashFlow CashFlow Public Balance

 (EOY)

 (Billions of Constant 2003$)

2004 1.8 1.8 -1.9 1.9

2005 4.8 4.8 -6.8 5.1

2006 8.0 8.0 -15.2 8.7

2007 11.0 11.0 -26.8 12.2

2008 14.2 14.2 -42.1 16.3

2009 17.5 17.5 -61.2 20.6

2010 20.6 20.6 -84.0 25.0

2011 25.1 25.1 -112.1 31.0

2012 26.9 26.9 -142.9 34.5

2013 30.0 30.0 -177.7 39.5

2014 33.2 33.2 -216.7 44.9

2015 36.3 36.3 -260.1 50.5

2016 39.3 39.3 -307.9 56.2

2017 42.4 42.4 -360.1 62.1

2018 45.4 45.4 -417.1 68.4

2019 48.5 48.5 -478.8 75.0

2020 51.5 51.5 -545.4 81.8

2021 54.7 54.7 -617.3 89.1

2022 57.7 57.7 -694.4 96.5

2023 60.8 60.8 -776.9 104.3

2024 63.7 63.7 -864.9 112.3

2025 66.8 66.8 -958.6 120.7

2026 69.7 69.7 -1,058.1 129.3

2027 72.7 72.7 -1,163.6 138.4

2028 75.8 75.8 -1,275.4 147.9

2029 78.7 78.7 -1,393.6 157.6

2030 81.6 81.6 -1,518.2 167.7

2031 84.5 84.5 -1,649.5 178.2

2032 87.4 87.4 -1,787.7 189.0

2033 90.3 90.3 -1,933.0 200.3

2034 93.1 93.1 -2,085.5 211.9

2035 95.9 95.9 -2,245.3 223.9

2036 98.6 98.6 -2,412.7 236.3

2037 99.6 99.6 -2,586.2 247.4

2038 100.8 100.8 -2,766.1 259.0

2039 101.8 101.8 -2,952.4 270.8

2040 102.6 102.6 -3,145.1 282.9

2041 103.4 103.4 -3,344.4 295.2

2042 104.1 104.1 -3,550.4 308.0

2043 104.8 104.8 -3,763.3 321.0

2044 105.4 105.4 -3,983.2 334.4

2045 105.8 105.8 -4,210.1 348.0

2046 106.3 106.3 -4,444.2 362.1

2047 106.6 106.6 -4,685.8 376.5

2048 107.1 107.1 -4,935.0 391.4

2049 107.4 107.4 -5,192.0 406.7

2050 107.6 107.6 -5,457.0 422.4

2051 107.9 107.9 -5,730.2 438.6

2052 108.2 108.2 -6,011.9 455.3

2053 108.5 108.5 -6,302.4 472.5

2054 108.8 108.8 -6,601.9 490.3

2055 109.3 109.3 -6,910.9 508.7

2056 109.7 109.7 -7,229.5 527.7

2057 110.1 110.1 -7,558.1 547.2

2058 110.6 110.6 -7,897.1 567.5

2059 111.2 111.2 -8,246.9 588.5

2060 111.9 111.9 -8,607.9 610.2

2061 112.7 112.7 -8,980.5 632.6

2062 113.4 113.4 -9,365.0 655.7

2063 114.2 114.2 -9,761.8 679.6

2064 115.1 115.1 -10,171.5 704.3

2065 115.9 115.9 -10,594.3 729.8

2066 116.9 116.9 -11,030.8 756.1

2067 117.7 117.7 -11,481.2 783.2

2068 118.7 118.7 -11,946.0 811.2

2069 119.6 119.6 -12,425.8 840.1

2070 120.7 120.7 -12,921.1 870.0

2071 121.7 121.7 -13,432.3 900.7

2072 122.8 122.8 -13,959.8 932.5

2073 123.9 123.9 -14,504.3 965.3

2074 125.0 125.0 -15,066.3 999.1

2075 126.2 126.2 -15,646.4 1,034.1

2076 127.4 127.4 -16,245.2 1,070.2

2077 128.7 128.7 -16,863.1 1,107.4

2078 130.0 130.0 -17,500.9 1,145.8

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report

 With Ult Real Int Rate of 3.0 TF,

Office of the Actuary

Social Security Administration

 September 29, 2003
Table 1.0 c OASDI Cash Flow to General Fund of the Treasury---Proposal vs. Theoretical OASDI

Proposal Theoretical Social Security with PAYGO Transfers

Net Amount of Cash-Flow from the OASDI Net Amount of Cash-Flow from the OASDI 

Trust Funds to the General Fund of the Trust Funds to the General Fund of the

 Treasury During the Year 1/ Treasury During the Year 1/

% of Billions of Dollars --- % of Billions of Dollars ---

Pyrl Current $ PV Jan 1, 03 Const 2003$ Pyrl Current $ PV Jan 1, 03 Const 2003$

2003 1.8 80 78 80 1.8 78 76 78

2004 1.9 89 81 86 1.8 84 77 82

2005 2.1 101 87 96 2.0 95 82 91

2006 2.2 114 93 106 2.0 104 84 96

2007 2.2 124 94 111 2.0 111 85 100

2008 2.3 131 94 114 2.0 113 82 99

2009 2.2 135 91 114 1.9 113 77 96

2010 2.1 137 87 112 1.8 111 71 91

2011 2.1 140 84 112 1.6 108 65 86

2012 1.9 135 76 105 1.4 100 56 77

2013 1.7 128 68 96 1.2 88 47 66

2014 1.5 119 60 87 1.0 73 37 53

2015 1.3 107 51 76 0.7 55 26 39

2016 1.0 90 40 62 0.4 33 15 23

2017 0.8 70 30 47 0.1 7 3 4

2018 0.5 47 19 31 -0.3 -23 -9 -15

2019 0.2 22 8 14 -0.6 -56 -21 -35

2020 -0.1 -8 -3 -5 -0.9 -92 -33 -56

2021 -0.4 -41 -14 -24 -1.3 -133 -44 -79

2022 -0.7 -75 -24 -43 -1.6 -176 -55 -101

2023 -0.9 -109 -32 -61 -1.9 -218 -64 -122

2024 -1.2 -145 -40 -79 -2.2 -263 -73 -143

2025 -1.4 -183 -48 -96 -2.5 -310 -81 -163

2026 -1.6 -222 -55 -113 -2.8 -358 -88 -183

2027 -1.8 -262 -61 -130 -3.1 -409 -95 -203

2028 -2.0 -303 -66 -146 -3.3 -461 -101 -222

2029 -2.2 -345 -71 -161 -3.5 -513 -106 -240

2030 -2.4 -385 -75 -175 -3.7 -565 -110 -257

2031 -2.5 -425 -78 -188 -3.9 -617 -113 -272

2032 -2.6 -464 -80 -199 -4.0 -669 -116 -286

2033 -2.7 -501 -82 -209 -4.1 -719 -117 -299

2034 -2.7 -538 -83 -217 -4.2 -770 -118 -311

2035 -2.8 -574 -83 -225 -4.3 -819 -119 -321

2036 -2.8 -609 -83 -232 -4.4 -869 -119 -331

2037 -2.9 -647 -83 -239 -4.4 -917 -118 -339

2038 -2.9 -684 -83 -246 -4.5 -966 -117 -347

2039 -3.0 -722 -83 -251 -4.5 -1,015 -116 -353

2040 -3.0 -760 -82 -257 -4.5 -1,065 -115 -360

2041 -3.0 -801 -81 -263 -4.5 -1,117 -113 -367

2042 -3.0 -844 -81 -269 -4.5 -1,171 -112 -373

2043 -3.1 -890 -80 -276 -4.6 -1,230 -111 -381

2044 -3.1 -941 -80 -283 -4.6 -1,292 -110 -388

2045 -3.1 -996 -80 -291 -4.6 -1,360 -109 -397

2046 -3.2 -1,057 -80 -299 -4.7 -1,433 -108 -406

2047 -3.2 -1,122 -80 -308 -4.7 -1,510 -108 -415

2048 -3.3 -1,191 -80 -318 -4.8 -1,593 -107 -425

2049 -3.4 -1,266 -80 -328 -4.8 -1,681 -106 -436

2050 -3.4 -1,347 -80 -339 -4.9 -1,776 -106 -447

2051 -3.5 -1,436 -81 -351 -5.0 -1,878 -106 -459

2052 -3.6 -1,532 -81 -363 -5.0 -1,989 -105 -472

2053 -3.7 -1,633 -82 -376 -5.1 -2,105 -105 -485

2054 -3.7 -1,739 -82 -389 -5.2 -2,227 -105 -498

2055 -3.8 -1,851 -82 -402 -5.2 -2,356 -105 -511

2056 -3.9 -1,969 -82 -415 -5.3 -2,490 -104 -525

2057 -4.0 -2,091 -83 -428 -5.4 -2,630 -104 -538

2058 -4.0 -2,216 -82 -440 -5.4 -2,775 -103 -551

2059 -4.1 -2,346 -82 -452 -5.5 -2,924 -103 -564

2060 -4.1 -2,480 -82 -464 -5.5 -3,079 -102 -577

2061 -4.2 -2,619 -82 -476 -5.6 -3,240 -101 -589

2062 -4.2 -2,767 -81 -488 -5.6 -3,411 -100 -602

2063 -4.3 -2,924 -81 -501 -5.7 -3,592 -99 -616

2064 -4.3 -3,089 -81 -514 -5.7 -3,782 -99 -629

2065 -4.4 -3,264 -80 -527 -5.8 -3,984 -98 -644

2066 -4.4 -3,449 -80 -541 -5.8 -4,196 -97 -658

2067 -4.5 -3,647 -80 -555 -5.9 -4,422 -97 -673

2068 -4.6 -3,855 -79 -570 -6.0 -4,660 -96 -689

2069 -4.6 -4,075 -79 -585 -6.0 -4,910 -95 -705

2070 -4.7 -4,306 -79 -600 -6.1 -5,175 -95 -721

2071 -4.7 -4,551 -78 -616 -6.1 -5,453 -94 -738

2072 -4.8 -4,808 -78 -631 -6.2 -5,745 -93 -755

2073 -4.9 -5,078 -78 -648 -6.3 -6,051 -93 -772

2074 -4.9 -5,361 -77 -664 -6.3 -6,373 -92 -789

2075 -5.0 -5,659 -77 -680 -6.4 -6,711 -91 -807

2076 -5.0 -5,970 -77 -697 -6.4 -7,065 -91 -825

2077 -5.1 -6,297 -76 -713 -6.5 -7,435 -90 -842

2078 -5.2 -6,641 -76 -731 -6.6 -7,825 -89 -861

-3,133 -4,922

1/ Equals net investment in special Treasury Bonds by the Trust Funds less the Amount of General Fund transfers 

 or, in the case of the proposal, the theoretical amount of Office of the Actuary

 Transfers or borrowing from the General fund that would be Social Security Administration

 needed to maintain solvency, if any. September 29, 2003
Table 1.1 Robert Ball Proposal--Two Provisions Plus Balancing Tax Rate in 2038

 With Ult Real TF Int Rate of 3.0

 Change

in OASDI OASDI

Cost Income Annual TFR Contrib Contrib

Year Rate Rate Balance 1-1-yr Rate Rate

2003 10.89 12.73 1.83 288 12.40

2004 10.78 12.70 1.91 309 12.40

2005 10.65 12.71 2.06 331 12.40

2006 10.51 12.70 2.20 355 12.40

2007 10.47 12.72 2.25 378 12.40

2008 10.48 12.73 2.25 400 12.40

2009 10.53 12.74 2.20 422 12.40

2010 10.63 12.76 2.13 442 12.40

2011 10.75 12.82 2.07 460 12.40

2012 10.91 12.81 1.90 477 12.40

2013 11.11 12.83 1.72 490 12.40

2014 11.32 12.84 1.52 501 12.40

2015 11.56 12.86 1.30 510 12.40

2016 11.83 12.88 1.05 515 12.40

2017 12.12 12.90 0.78 518 12.40

2018 12.42 12.91 0.50 518 12.40

2019 12.71 12.93 0.22 516 12.40

2020 13.03 12.95 -0.08 512 12.40

2021 13.35 12.97 -0.38 506 12.40

2022 13.65 12.99 -0.66 498 12.40

2023 13.93 13.01 -0.92 491 12.40

2024 14.19 13.03 -1.17 482 12.40

2025 14.45 13.04 -1.41 472 12.40

2026 14.69 13.06 -1.63 461 12.40

2027 14.91 13.07 -1.84 450 12.40

2028 15.13 13.09 -2.03 438 12.40

2029 15.32 13.11 -2.21 425 12.40

2030 15.48 13.12 -2.36 412 12.40

2031 15.62 13.13 -2.49 399 12.40

2032 15.74 13.14 -2.59 386 12.40

2033 15.83 13.15 -2.68 373 12.40

2034 15.91 13.16 -2.75 360 12.40

2035 15.97 13.17 -2.80 346 12.40

2036 16.01 13.17 -2.84 333 12.40

2037 16.07 13.18 -2.89 319 12.40

2038 16.11 15.62 -0.48 306 2.44 14.84

2039 16.14 15.63 -0.51 307 14.84

2040 16.17 15.63 -0.54 308 14.84

2041 16.20 15.64 -0.56 309 14.84

2042 16.23 15.64 -0.59 310 14.84

2043 16.27 15.65 -0.62 311 14.84

2044 16.31 15.65 -0.66 311 14.84

2045 16.36 15.66 -0.70 311 14.84

2046 16.42 15.66 -0.76 311 14.84

2047 16.48 15.67 -0.81 310 14.84

2048 16.54 15.68 -0.87 309 14.84

2049 16.61 15.68 -0.93 308 14.84

2050 16.68 15.69 -0.99 306 14.84

2051 16.76 15.70 -1.07 304 14.84

2052 16.85 15.70 -1.15 301 14.84

2053 16.93 15.71 -1.22 298 14.84

2054 17.02 15.72 -1.30 295 14.84

2055 17.10 15.72 -1.37 291 14.84

2056 17.18 15.73 -1.45 286 14.84

2057 17.25 15.74 -1.52 281 14.84

2058 17.32 15.74 -1.58 276 14.84

2059 17.38 15.75 -1.63 271 14.84

2060 17.44 15.75 -1.69 265 14.84

2061 17.49 15.76 -1.74 259 14.84

2062 17.55 15.76 -1.79 253 14.84

2063 17.61 15.77 -1.84 246 14.84

2064 17.67 15.77 -1.90 239 14.84

2065 17.73 15.78 -1.95 232 14.84

2066 17.79 15.78 -2.01 224 14.84

2067 17.85 15.79 -2.07 216 14.84

2068 17.92 15.79 -2.13 207 14.84

2069 17.98 15.80 -2.18 198 14.84

2070 18.04 15.80 -2.24 189 14.84

2071 18.11 15.80 -2.31 179 14.84

2072 18.18 15.81 -2.37 169 14.84

2073 18.24 15.81 -2.43 158 14.84

2074 18.30 15.82 -2.48 147 14.84

2075 18.37 15.82 -2.54 136 14.84

2076 18.43 15.83 -2.60 124 14.84

2077 18.49 15.83 -2.66 112 14.84

2078 18.55 15.83 -2.71 100 14.84

 Summarized

CostRt IncRt ActBal Change in

OASDI OASDI OASDI ActBal

2003-27 12.49 14.28 1.79 0.53

2003-52 13.92 14.38 0.47 1.41

2003-77 14.69 14.69 0.00 1.92 Office of the Actuary

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report Social Security Administration

 With Ult Real Int Rate of 3.00 September 29, 2003
Table 1.1 a OASDI Tax Income, Outgo, and Net Cash Flow Balance-- for Proposal

OASDI

Income Assets at Effective

Excluding Interest Total End of Taxable

Year Interest Income Income Outgo Year Payroll

Billions of nominal (current) dollars

2003 555.9 87.5 643.4 477.9 1,543.5 4,389

2004 584.2 97.5 681.6 499.1 1,726.0 4,630

2005 621.2 109.6 730.8 521.6 1,935.3 4,901

2006 657.5 123.7 781.2 545.6 2,170.8 5,196

2007 696.8 139.4 836.2 574.6 2,432.4 5,493

2008 735.9 156.2 892.1 607.3 2,717.2 5,800

2009 776.6 173.7 950.4 644.1 3,023.5 6,117

2010 818.8 192.4 1,011.1 684.1 3,350.5 6,440

2011 865.9 212.1 1,078.0 728.0 3,700.5 6,773

2012 909.0 233.1 1,142.2 775.8 4,066.9 7,112

2013 955.9 255.0 1,210.9 829.4 4,448.4 7,469

2014 1,004.4 277.6 1,282.0 887.2 4,843.2 7,838

2015 1,054.6 300.8 1,355.4 949.7 5,249.0 8,219

2016 1,106.5 324.5 1,431.0 1,018.3 5,661.7 8,612

2017 1,161.0 348.3 1,509.3 1,092.7 6,078.3 9,023

2018 1,217.8 373.1 1,590.9 1,172.8 6,496.4 9,451

2019 1,277.4 397.9 1,675.3 1,257.8 6,913.9 9,899

2020 1,339.4 422.6 1,762.0 1,349.6 7,326.3 10,364

2021 1,404.7 446.8 1,851.5 1,448.0 7,729.9 10,854

2022 1,472.3 470.4 1,942.7 1,550.3 8,122.2 11,359

2023 1,543.0 493.4 2,036.4 1,654.9 8,503.7 11,888

2024 1,616.6 515.7 2,132.2 1,764.7 8,871.2 12,438

2025 1,693.5 537.0 2,230.6 1,879.3 9,222.5 13,013

2026 1,774.0 557.5 2,331.5 1,998.7 9,555.3 13,615

2027 1,858.5 576.6 2,435.2 2,123.7 9,866.8 14,246

2028 1,947.2 594.4 2,541.6 2,253.8 10,154.6 14,907

2029 2,039.7 610.9 2,650.6 2,387.8 10,417.3 15,598

2030 2,136.6 625.8 2,762.3 2,525.5 10,654.2 16,323

2031 2,238.1 639.1 2,877.3 2,666.8 10,864.6 17,083

2032 2,344.2 650.9 2,995.1 2,812.0 11,047.7 17,878

2033 2,455.2 661.1 3,116.3 2,960.8 11,203.2 18,712

2034 2,570.8 669.6 3,240.4 3,113.4 11,330.2 19,580

2035 2,691.5 676.4 3,367.9 3,270.1 11,428.0 20,488

2036 2,817.6 681.5 3,499.1 3,431.3 11,495.8 21,439

2037 2,945.1 684.6 3,629.7 3,597.0 11,528.6 22,396

2038 3,648.3 703.9 4,352.2 3,767.6 12,113.3 23,400

2039 3,812.2 739.4 4,551.6 3,943.9 12,721.0 24,443

2040 3,982.7 776.3 4,759.0 4,126.8 13,353.2 25,528

2041 4,160.5 814.7 4,975.1 4,317.8 14,010.5 26,660

2042 4,346.0 854.5 5,200.5 4,517.8 14,693.3 27,840

2043 4,539.4 895.9 5,435.3 4,727.9 15,400.7 29,070

2044 4,741.1 938.7 5,679.8 4,948.9 16,131.6 30,353

2045 4,950.5 982.8 5,933.3 5,181.8 16,883.1 31,683

2046 5,169.1 1,028.1 6,197.2 5,427.2 17,653.1 33,070

2047 5,397.1 1,074.4 6,471.5 5,685.3 18,439.4 34,515

2048 5,635.2 1,121.6 6,756.8 5,956.1 19,240.1 36,024

2049 5,883.2 1,169.7 7,052.9 6,241.0 20,051.9 37,594

2050 6,141.7 1,218.2 7,359.9 6,541.3 20,870.5 39,229

2051 6,411.1 1,267.0 7,678.1 6,858.4 21,690.2 40,931

2052 6,692.9 1,315.8 8,008.7 7,193.0 22,505.9 42,712

2053 6,987.1 1,364.2 8,351.3 7,543.2 23,313.9 44,569

2054 7,293.9 1,412.0 8,705.9 7,910.1 24,109.7 46,506

2055 7,614.9 1,459.1 9,074.0 8,294.1 24,889.6 48,532

2056 7,949.8 1,505.0 9,454.9 8,695.2 25,649.3 50,645

2057 8,299.4 1,549.7 9,849.1 9,114.0 26,384.4 52,850

2058 8,664.9 1,592.9 10,257.8 9,549.2 27,093.1 55,157

2059 9,045.8 1,634.5 10,680.3 10,001.2 27,772.2 57,562

2060 9,443.6 1,674.2 11,117.8 10,472.2 28,417.8 60,073

2061 9,858.3 1,711.9 11,570.1 10,962.7 29,025.2 62,692

2062 10,290.5 1,747.0 12,037.6 11,477.2 29,585.7 65,420

2063 10,742.1 1,779.2 12,521.3 12,017.2 30,089.7 68,271

2064 11,213.3 1,807.6 13,020.9 12,581.2 30,529.5 71,245

2065 11,703.9 1,832.2 13,536.1 13,172.3 30,893.3 74,341

2066 12,216.4 1,851.8 14,068.2 13,791.6 31,169.9 77,572

2067 12,749.9 1,865.9 14,615.8 14,441.4 31,344.3 80,936

2068 13,307.2 1,873.6 15,180.9 15,122.6 31,402.7 84,447

2069 13,888.2 1,874.1 15,762.3 15,834.5 31,330.5 88,107

2070 14,493.8 1,866.3 16,360.1 16,579.5 31,111.1 91,922

2071 15,124.7 1,849.4 16,974.1 17,359.0 30,726.2 95,895

2072 15,782.8 1,822.2 17,605.0 18,173.9 30,157.2 100,038

2073 16,469.2 1,783.5 18,252.7 19,025.8 29,384.1 104,357

2074 17,185.0 1,732.2 18,917.3 19,916.1 28,385.3 108,863

2075 17,931.2 1,667.0 19,598.2 20,846.4 27,137.1 113,560

2076 18,709.4 1,586.2 20,295.6 21,818.1 25,614.5 118,455

2077 19,520.8 1,488.5 21,009.2 22,832.6 23,791.2 123,560

2078 20,366.4 1,372.1 21,738.5 23,894.2 21,635.6 128,884

Office of the Actuary

Social Security Administration

 September 29, 2003
Table 1.1 b Unified Budget Effects of Proposal 

 Change Change Change

 Changes in Annual in Debt in Ann

 in OASDI UnifBudg Held by UnifBudg

 Year CashFlow CashFlow Public Balance

 (EOY)

 (Billions of Constant 2003$)

2004 1.8 1.8 -1.9 1.9

2005 4.8 4.8 -6.8 5.1

2006 8.0 8.0 -15.2 8.7

2007 11.0 11.0 -26.8 12.2

2008 14.2 14.2 -42.1 16.3

2009 17.5 17.5 -61.2 20.6

2010 20.6 20.6 -84.0 25.0

2011 25.1 25.1 -112.1 31.0

2012 26.9 26.9 -142.9 34.5

2013 30.0 30.0 -177.7 39.5

2014 33.2 33.2 -216.7 44.9

2015 36.3 36.3 -260.1 50.5

2016 39.3 39.3 -307.9 56.2

2017 42.4 42.4 -360.1 62.1

2018 45.4 45.4 -417.1 68.4

2019 48.5 48.5 -478.8 75.0

2020 51.5 51.5 -545.4 81.8

2021 54.7 54.7 -617.3 89.1

2022 57.7 57.7 -694.4 96.5

2023 60.8 60.8 -776.9 104.3

2024 63.7 63.7 -864.9 112.3

2025 66.8 66.8 -958.6 120.7

2026 69.7 69.7 -1,058.1 129.3

2027 72.7 72.7 -1,163.6 138.4

2028 75.8 75.8 -1,275.4 147.9

2029 78.7 78.7 -1,393.6 157.6

2030 81.6 81.6 -1,518.2 167.7

2031 84.5 84.5 -1,649.5 178.2

2032 87.4 87.4 -1,787.7 189.0

2033 90.3 90.3 -1,933.0 200.3

2034 93.1 93.1 -2,085.5 211.9

2035 95.9 95.9 -2,245.3 223.9

2036 98.6 98.6 -2,412.7 236.3

2037 99.6 99.6 -2,586.2 247.4

2038 305.7 305.7 -2,974.0 470.1

2039 309.5 309.5 -3,377.4 497.3

2040 313.3 313.3 -3,796.7 525.4

2041 317.0 317.0 -4,232.3 554.4

2042 320.7 320.7 -4,684.8 584.3

2043 324.4 324.4 -5,154.6 615.2

2044 328.0 328.0 -5,642.1 647.2

2045 331.4 331.4 -6,147.6 679.9

2046 334.8 334.8 -6,671.9 713.8

2047 338.2 338.2 -7,215.3 748.8

2048 341.8 341.8 -7,778.6 785.0

2049 345.2 345.2 -8,362.3 822.3

2050 348.5 348.5 -8,966.9 860.8

2051 351.9 351.9 -9,593.0 900.5

2052 355.4 355.4 -10,241.5 941.7

2053 359.0 359.0 -10,913.1 984.3

2054 362.6 362.6 -11,608.5 1,028.3

2055 366.4 366.4 -12,328.6 1,073.9

2056 370.1 370.1 -13,074.1 1,121.0

2057 374.0 374.0 -13,845.8 1,169.7

2058 378.0 378.0 -14,644.9 1,220.2

2059 382.2 382.2 -15,472.1 1,272.4

2060 386.4 386.4 -16,328.4 1,326.5

2061 390.8 390.8 -17,214.9 1,382.3

2062 395.2 395.2 -18,132.4 1,440.0

2063 399.7 399.7 -19,082.0 1,499.7

2064 404.3 404.3 -20,064.8 1,561.5

2065 409.0 409.0 -21,081.8 1,625.3

2066 413.7 413.7 -22,134.1 1,691.2

2067 418.4 418.4 -23,222.8 1,759.2

2068 423.3 423.3 -24,349.1 1,829.5

2069 428.2 428.2 -25,514.2 1,902.2

2070 433.3 433.3 -26,719.3 1,977.3

2071 438.3 438.3 -27,965.6 2,054.7

2072 443.4 443.4 -29,254.6 2,134.8

2073 448.6 448.6 -30,587.5 2,217.5

2074 453.9 453.9 -31,965.8 2,303.0

2075 459.3 459.3 -33,390.9 2,391.2

2076 464.8 464.8 -34,864.3 2,482.4

2077 470.3 470.3 -36,387.5 2,576.5

2078 475.9 475.9 -37,962.1 2,673.7

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report

 With Ult Real Int Rate of 3.0 TF,

Office of the Actuary

Social Security Administration

 September 29, 2003
Table 1.1 c OASDI Cash Flow to General Fund of the Treasury---Proposal vs. Theoretical OASDI

Proposal Theoretical Social Security with PAYGO Transfers

Net Amount of Cash-Flow from the OASDI Net Amount of Cash-Flow from the OASDI 

Trust Funds to the General Fund of the Trust Funds to the General Fund of the

 Treasury During the Year 1/ Treasury During the Year 1/

% of Billions of Dollars --- % of Billions of Dollars ---

Pyrl Current $ PV Jan 1, 03 Const 2003$ Pyrl Current $ PV Jan 1, 03 Const 2003$

2003 1.8 80 78 80 1.8 78 76 78

2004 1.9 89 81 86 1.8 84 77 82

2005 2.1 101 87 96 2.0 95 82 91

2006 2.2 114 93 106 2.0 104 84 96

2007 2.2 124 94 111 2.0 111 85 100

2008 2.3 131 94 114 2.0 113 82 99

2009 2.2 135 91 114 1.9 113 77 96

2010 2.1 137 87 112 1.8 111 71 91

2011 2.1 140 84 112 1.6 108 65 86

2012 1.9 135 76 105 1.4 100 56 77

2013 1.7 128 68 96 1.2 88 47 66

2014 1.5 119 60 87 1.0 73 37 53

2015 1.3 107 51 76 0.7 55 26 39

2016 1.0 90 40 62 0.4 33 15 23

2017 0.8 70 30 47 0.1 7 3 4

2018 0.5 47 19 31 -0.3 -23 -9 -15

2019 0.2 22 8 14 -0.6 -56 -21 -35

2020 -0.1 -8 -3 -5 -0.9 -92 -33 -56

2021 -0.4 -41 -14 -24 -1.3 -133 -44 -79

2022 -0.7 -75 -24 -43 -1.6 -176 -55 -101

2023 -0.9 -109 -32 -61 -1.9 -218 -64 -122

2024 -1.2 -145 -40 -79 -2.2 -263 -73 -143

2025 -1.4 -183 -48 -96 -2.5 -310 -81 -163

2026 -1.6 -222 -55 -113 -2.8 -358 -88 -183

2027 -1.8 -262 -61 -130 -3.1 -409 -95 -203

2028 -2.0 -303 -66 -146 -3.3 -461 -101 -222

2029 -2.2 -345 -71 -161 -3.5 -513 -106 -240

2030 -2.4 -385 -75 -175 -3.7 -565 -110 -257

2031 -2.5 -425 -78 -188 -3.9 -617 -113 -272

2032 -2.6 -464 -80 -199 -4.0 -669 -116 -286

2033 -2.7 -501 -82 -209 -4.1 -719 -117 -299

2034 -2.7 -538 -83 -217 -4.2 -770 -118 -311

2035 -2.8 -574 -83 -225 -4.3 -819 -119 -321

2036 -2.8 -609 -83 -232 -4.4 -869 -119 -331

2037 -2.9 -647 -83 -239 -4.4 -917 -118 -339

2038 -0.5 -113 -14 -41 -4.5 -966 -117 -347

2039 -0.5 -125 -14 -44 -4.5 -1,015 -116 -353

2040 -0.5 -138 -15 -47 -4.5 -1,065 -115 -360

2041 -0.6 -151 -15 -49 -4.5 -1,117 -113 -367

2042 -0.6 -165 -16 -53 -4.5 -1,171 -112 -373

2043 -0.6 -181 -16 -56 -4.6 -1,230 -111 -381

2044 -0.7 -200 -17 -60 -4.6 -1,292 -110 -388

2045 -0.7 -223 -18 -65 -4.6 -1,360 -109 -397

2046 -0.8 -250 -19 -71 -4.7 -1,433 -108 -406

2047 -0.8 -280 -20 -77 -4.7 -1,510 -108 -415

2048 -0.9 -312 -21 -83 -4.8 -1,593 -107 -425

2049 -0.9 -348 -22 -90 -4.8 -1,681 -106 -436

2050 -1.0 -390 -23 -98 -4.9 -1,776 -106 -447

2051 -1.1 -437 -25 -107 -5.0 -1,878 -106 -459

2052 -1.1 -489 -26 -116 -5.0 -1,989 -105 -472

2053 -1.2 -545 -27 -126 -5.1 -2,105 -105 -485

2054 -1.3 -605 -28 -135 -5.2 -2,227 -105 -498

2055 -1.4 -667 -30 -145 -5.2 -2,356 -105 -511

2056 -1.4 -733 -31 -154 -5.3 -2,490 -104 -525

2057 -1.5 -801 -32 -164 -5.4 -2,630 -104 -538

2058 -1.6 -871 -32 -173 -5.4 -2,775 -103 -551

2059 -1.6 -941 -33 -182 -5.5 -2,924 -103 -564

2060 -1.7 -1,014 -34 -190 -5.5 -3,079 -102 -577

2061 -1.7 -1,089 -34 -198 -5.6 -3,240 -101 -589

2062 -1.8 -1,171 -34 -207 -5.6 -3,411 -100 -602

2063 -1.8 -1,258 -35 -216 -5.7 -3,592 -99 -616

2064 -1.9 -1,350 -35 -225 -5.7 -3,782 -99 -629

2065 -2.0 -1,450 -36 -234 -5.8 -3,984 -98 -644

2066 -2.0 -1,556 -36 -244 -5.8 -4,196 -97 -658

2067 -2.1 -1,672 -37 -255 -5.9 -4,422 -97 -673

2068 -2.1 -1,795 -37 -265 -6.0 -4,660 -96 -689

2069 -2.2 -1,925 -37 -276 -6.0 -4,910 -95 -705

2070 -2.2 -2,063 -38 -288 -6.1 -5,175 -95 -721

2071 -2.3 -2,211 -38 -299 -6.1 -5,453 -94 -738

2072 -2.4 -2,367 -38 -311 -6.2 -5,745 -93 -755

2073 -2.4 -2,531 -39 -323 -6.3 -6,051 -93 -772

2074 -2.5 -2,705 -39 -335 -6.3 -6,373 -92 -789

2075 -2.5 -2,888 -39 -347 -6.4 -6,711 -91 -807

2076 -2.6 -3,080 -40 -359 -6.4 -7,065 -91 -825

2077 -2.7 -3,282 -40 -372 -6.5 -7,435 -90 -842

2078 -2.7 -3,497 -40 -385 -6.6 -7,825 -89 -861

-1,079 -4,922

1/ Equals net investment in special Treasury Bonds by the Trust Funds less the Amount of General Fund transfers 

 or, in the case of the proposal, the theoretical amount of Office of the Actuary

 Transfers or borrowing from the General fund that would be Social Security Administration

 needed to maintain solvency, if any. September 29, 2003