SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE, MD 21235-0001

SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

July 31, 2014

The Honorable John Larson

United States House of Representatives

Washington, D.C. 20515

Dear Representative Larson:

I am writing in response to your request for estimates of the financial effects on Social Security 

of the Social Security 2100 Act, which you introduced today. This Bill (hereafter referred to as 

the proposal) includes seven provisions with direct effects on the Social Security Trust Funds. 

We have enjoyed working closely with Scott Stephanou of your staff in developing this proposal

to meet your goals.

The enclosed tables provide estimates of the effects of the seven provisions on the cost, income, 

and combined trust fund reserves for the Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI)

program, as well as the estimated effects on retired worker benefit levels for selected 

hypothetical workers. In addition, tables 1b, 1b.n, 2b, and 2b.n provide estimates of the Federal 

budget implications of the seven provisions. We base all estimates on the intermediate 

assumptions of the 2013 Trustees Report plus additional assumptions described below. We 

provide estimates for the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds reflecting the intent to reallocate

the total tax rate as needed to equalize the actuarial status of the two separate trust funds. 

The estimates and analysis provided here reflect the combined effort of many in the Office of the 

Chief Actuary, but most particularly Alice Wade, Christopher Chaplain, Daniel Nickerson, Jason 

Schultz, Kyle Burkhalter, Katie Sutton, and Tiffany Bosley.

The proposal includes the following seven provisions with direct effects on the OASDI program:

1) Invest up to 25 percent of the trust fund reserves in equities, fully effective in 2025. 

Equities investments are phased in beginning in 2016. 

2) Increase the combined OASDI payroll tax rate to 14.4 percent, fully effective in 2037. 

The combined rate is increased by 0.1 percentage point each year starting in 2018. In 

addition, the payroll tax rate is reallocated between the Disability Insurance (DI) Program 

and the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Program with the intent to roughly 

equalize the actuarial status of the two trust funds. 

3) Apply the combined payroll tax rate on earnings above $400,000, fully effective in 2015. 

Tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $400,000. Credit the 

additional earnings that are taxed for benefit purposes by: (a) calculating a second 

average indexed monthly earnings ("AIME+") reflecting only additional earnings taxed

above the current taxable maximum, (b) applying a 2-percent factor on this newly 
2

computed "AIME+" to develop a second component of the PIA, and (c) adding this 

second component to the current-law PIA.

4) Increase the threshold for taxation of benefits to the OASDI Trust Funds, to $50,000 for 

single filers and $100,000 for joint filers, fully effective in 2015. These revised

thresholds would be fixed and not indexed to inflation or wages. The Hospital Insurance 

(HI) Trust Fund would be held harmless relative to current law, with respect to taxation 

of benefit revenues.

5) Use the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E) to calculate the cost-of-living 

adjustment (COLA), effective for December 2015. We assume this change would 

increase the COLA by an average of 0.2 percentage point per year.

6) Increase the first PIA formula factor from 90 percent to 93 percent for all eligible 

beneficiaries as of January 2015, and for those newly eligible for benefits after January

2015.

7) Increase the special minimum PIA, beginning for workers who become newly eligible for 

retirement or disability benefits or die beginning in 2015. For beneficiaries newly 

eligible in 2015, the minimum initial PIA for workers with 30 or more years of coverage 

(YOCs) is 125 percent of the annual poverty guideline for a single individual published 

by the Department of Health and Human Services for 2014, divided by 12. For 

beneficiaries newly eligible after 2015, the minimum initial PIA increases by the growth 

in the SSA average wage index (AWI). 

The balance of this letter provides a summary of the effects of the seven provisions on the 

actuarial status of the OASDI program, our understanding of the specifications and intent of each 

provision, and descriptions of our detailed financial estimates for trust fund operations, benefit 

levels, and implications for the federal budget.

Because the proposal includes investing a portion of the trust fund reserves in equities, we need 

to assume a rate of return for these equities. Historically, total real equity returns have averaged 

around 4.5 percent above the return on long-term Treasury securities. We believe that the equity 

premium will be somewhat lower in the future, in part due to lower volatility as a result of more 

investment in passively managed index funds. For trust fund reserves invested in equities, we 

assume an additional annual administrative expense of 0.005 percent (0.5 basis point). 

Therefore, for our main expected-yield assumption, we assume the future real annual return on 

equities of corporations based in the United States will average about 6.4 percent over long 

periods. This implies an average annual “equity premium” of 3.5 percent over the yield on longterm Treasury securities (ultimately 2.9 percent). We have also provided alternative estimates 

with a low-yield, or “risk-adjusted,” assumption using a zero equity premium; that is, we assume

the future real annual return on equities will be the same as the assumed return on the long-term 

Treasury securities available to the Trust Funds under current law. Under the specifications of 

the proposal (detailed below) and with the intermediate assumptions of the 2013 Trustees Report, 

the managing trustee of the Trust funds (the Secretary of the Treasury) would be required to 

invest the maximum allowable percentage of reserves in equities each year in the future. 

However, if reserve accumulation substantially exceeds the level projected under these 

assumptions, then the managing trustee would be prescribed to invest a smaller portion of 

reserves in equities. 
3

Summary of Effects of the Proposal on OASDI Actuarial Status

Figure 1 below illustrates the estimated change in the combined Old-Age and Survivors 

Insurance (OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI) trust fund reserves, expressed as a percent of 

annual program cost, assuming enactment of the seven provisions of this proposal, with the 

expected-yield assumption for equity investments. Assuming enactment, the OASDI program is

expected to be fully solvent throughout the 75-year projection period, under the intermediate 

assumptions of the 2013 Trustees Report. 

Note: Trust Fund Ratio for a given year is the ratio of reserves in the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds at the 

beginning of the year to the cost of the program for the year. 

Under the proposal, the level of reserves for the theoretical combined OASI and DI Trust Funds

declines from 330 percent of annual program cost at the beginning of 2013 to 135 percent in 

2042, increases to 176 percent in 2067, and then declines to 147 percent at the end of the 75-year 

projection period in 2087. Enactment of the seven provisions of this proposal would eliminate 

the entire long-range OASDI actuarial deficit of 2.72 percent of taxable payroll under current 

law, replacing the OASDI actuarial deficit with a surplus of 0.05 percent of payroll for the longrange period. The ratio of trust fund reserves to annual program cost (trust fund ratio, or TFR) is 

projected to be declining by about 3 percentage points per year at the end of the long-range 

period. This means that some additional provisions would be needed to attain sustainable 

solvency, which requires a stable or rising trust fund ratio at the end of the projection period.
4

Under the low-yield or “risk-adjusted” return assumption for equities, the level of reserves for 

the theoretical combined OASI and DI Trust Funds declines generally from 330 percent of 

annual program cost at the beginning of 2013 to 2 percent at the end of the 75-year projection 

period in 2087. We project that trust fund reserves will be depleted in 2087 (54 years later than

the projected depletion year under current law). At the time of reserve depletion in 2087, the 

program would be able to pay about 93 percent of then-scheduled benefits with continuing taxes,

compared to 72 percent of scheduled benefits payable under present law. Under current law, 77 

percent of scheduled benefits are projected to be payable in 2033 after reserve depletion. 

Figure 2 illustrates annual projected levels of cost, expenditures, and non-interest income as a 

percent of the present-law taxable payroll under the expected-yield scenario. The projected level 

of cost reflects the full cost of scheduled benefits under both present law and the proposal.

Under the expected-yield assumption, projected expenditures include the full cost of scheduled 

benefits because trust fund reserves do not deplete during the projection period. 

Under the expected-yield assumption, beginning in 2015, OASDI program cost is higher under 

the proposal than under current law. This difference in program cost increases quickly at first, 

then increases gradually over time to about 1.2 percent of current-law payroll by 2087. Noninterest income under the proposal is also higher than under current law, with the difference in 

non-interest income growing from 0.6 percent of payroll for 2015 to 4.7 percent of payroll by 
5

2087. The proposal improves the annual net cash-flow balance (non-interest income minus 

program cost) by 3.5 percent of payroll by 2045, with the improvement reaching 3.6 percent of 

payroll by 2087. Under the proposal, annual cash-flow balance is negative throughout the longrange period, with annual deficits peaking at 1.5 percent of payroll in 2031, declining to 0.1

percent of payroll in 2050, and steadily increasing thereafter to 1.2 percent of payroll in 2087.

As a comparison, the projected annual deficit under current law is 4.8 percent of payroll for 

2087.

It is also useful to consider the projected cost, expenditures, and income for the OASDI program 

expressed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Figure 3 below illustrates these 

levels under both current law and the proposal under the expected-yield assumption. 

Specification for Provisions of the Proposal

(1) Invest up to 25 percent of the trust fund reserves in equities, fully effective in 2025.

We assume equity investment will be made in broad, diversified equity index funds referred to as 

the Common Stock Investment Funds (CSIF), for the OASDI and DI Trust Funds, separately. 

We assume the CSIFs will have a long-term average annual 6.4-percent real return on equities 

for the expected-yield assumption, and a 2.9-percent real return for the low-yield assumption. 

The expected average equity premium over long-term Treasury securities of 3.5 percentage 
6

points (6.4 minus 2.9) is somewhat lower than the average equity premium of about 4.5 

percentage points experienced for the S&P 500 index relative to 10-year U.S. Treasury Bonds, 

on average, between 1927 and 2013. 

Equity investments begin in 2016, with a target of 2.5 percent of the trust fund reserves invested 

in the CSIF, on average, during the year (applicable percentage for 2016). After 2016, the 

targeted percent of reserves invested in the CSIF rises linearly, reaching 25 percent for 2025 and 

later (applicable percentage for 2025 and later). The managing trustee shall rebalance the 

reserves in each of the OASI and DI Trust Funds on a frequent basis to maintain the targeted 

allocations for CSIF and long-term U.S. Treasury securities as described below.

In any year where the trust fund ratio (ratio of reserves at the beginning of the year to program 

cost for the year) for the 75th projected year (that is 74 years after the current year) is estimated to 

exceed 150 percent under the assumption that the share of trust fund reserves invested in the 

Common Stock Investment Funds (CSIF) will be increased in the current year and each year 

thereafter by 2.5 percentage points until the ultimate maximum of 25 percent is achieved, the 

Managing Trustee shall reduce the targeted percent invested in the CSIF for the end of the 

current year to a level that will neither be more than 2.5 percentage points less than the target for 

the end of the previous year nor result in a projected trust fund ratio for the 75th projection year 

that is less than 150 percent.

In any year where the trust fund ratio for the 75th projected year is estimated to be less than 150 

under the assumption that the share of trust fund reserves invested in the CSIF will be increased 

in the current year and each year thereafter by 2.5 percentage points until the ultimate maximum 

of 25 percent is achieved, the managing trustee shall target the share of trust fund reserves 

invested in the CSIF to be increased in the current year and each year thereafter by 2.5 

percentage points until the ultimate maximum of 25 percent is achieved. In no year shall the 

amounts in the CSIF exceed 25 percent of total trust fund reserves.

Under the expected-yield assumption, we estimate that this provision alone will reduce 

(improve) the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit by 0.38 percent of taxable payroll. The change 

in the annual deficit for the 75th projection year (2087) due to this provision is negligible 

(between -0.005 and 0.005 percent of payroll).

For the low-yield assumption, setting the projected equity yield rate equal to current trust fund

interest rates results in no change in the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit or in the annual 

deficit for the 75th projection year.

(2) Increase the OASDI payroll tax rate to 14.4 percent, fully effective for 2037.

The increase in the OASDI payroll tax rate is phased in by increasing the payroll tax rate by 0.05

percent for employers and employees, each (0.10 percent total), every year from 2018 through 

2037. For years 2037 and later, the payroll tax rate is 7.2 percent for both employers and 

employees (14.4 percent total), up from 6.2 percent each (12.4 percent total) under current law.
7

The proposal specifies a reallocation of the total OASDI payroll tax rate between the OASI and 

DI Trust Funds. The intent of this reallocation is to roughly equalize the actuarial status of the 

OASI and DI Trust Funds. The reallocation specified in the proposal would extend the solvency 

of the DI program well beyond the projected date of reserve depletion under current law (2016). 

However, further technical adjustments to this specified reallocation would be required to fully 

equalize the actuarial status of the funds. These technical adjustments would have no material 

effect on the projections provided in this letter for the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds.

We estimate that this provision alone will reduce the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit by 1.45 

percent of taxable payroll and will reduce the annual deficit for the 75th projection year (2087) by 

1.99 percent of payroll.

(3) Apply OASDI payroll tax rate on earnings above $400,000, fully effective in 2015.

This provision applies the OASDI payroll tax rate to earnings above $400,000. The $400,000 

level is a fixed amount after 2015 and not indexed to inflation or wages. All earnings would be 

taxed once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $400,000, which is projected to occur in 

2045. Any earnings above $400,000 in a given year would be counted as “excess wages” and 

would be credited for benefit purposes by: 

a. Calculating a second average indexed monthly earnings ("AIME+") reflecting only 

additional earnings taxed, 

b. Applying a 2-percent PIA factor to this newly computed "AIME+" to develop a second 

component of the PIA, and 

c. Adding this second component to the current-law PIA.

We estimate that this provision alone will reduce the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit by 1.83

percent of taxable payroll and will reduce the annual deficit for the 75th projection year (2087) by 

2.35 percent of payroll.

(4) Increase the threshold for taxation of benefits to $50,000 for single filers and $100,000 for 

joint filers, fully effective in 2015.

Under current law, single tax filers with combined “income” (approximately equal to adjusted 

gross income plus half of their Social Security benefit) above $25,000 may have to pay income 

tax on up to 50 percent of the benefits. If combined “income” exceeds $34,000, up to 85 percent 

of the benefits may be taxable. The income tax revenue for taxing up to 50 percent of Social 

Security benefits goes to the OASDI Trust Fund. The additional income tax revenue derived 

from taxing benefits in excess of 50 percent, up to 85 percent, goes to the Hospital Insurance 

(HI) Trust Fund. The process is similar for joint tax filers, with $32,000 and $44,000 thresholds 

applying for possible taxation of up to 50 percent or 85 percent of the Social Security benefits, 

respectively. All threshold levels are fixed amounts and not indexed to inflation or wages. 

Under the proposal, the $25,000 and $32,000 thresholds (applicable for taxation-of-benefit 

revenues to the OASDI Trust Fund) increase to $50,000 and $100,000 for single and joint filers, 

respectively, beginning in 2015. These revised thresholds are unchanged for years after 2015. 
8

However, taxation-of-benefit revenues transferred to the HI Trust Funds would remain the same 

as under current law. 

We estimate that this provision alone will increase the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit by 

0.12 percent of taxable payroll and will increase the annual deficit for the 75th projection year 

(2087) by 0.01 percent of payroll.

(5) Use CPI-E to calculate the COLA, fully effective for December 2015.

Under current law, the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) applied to Social Security 

benefits is calculated using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical 

Workers (CPI-W). We estimate that using the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E) 

instead of the CPI-W beginning with the December 2015 COLA would increase the COLA by 

0.2 percentage points per year on average.

We estimate that this provision alone will increase the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit by 

0.37 percent of taxable payroll and will increase the annual deficit for the 75th projection year 

(2087) by 0.53 percent of payroll.

(6) Increase the first PIA factor to 93 percent for all beneficiaries beginning in 2015.

This provision increases the first factor in the PIA formula from 90 to 93 percent for all eligible 

beneficiaries as of January 2015, and for those newly eligible for benefits after January 2015.

 

We estimate that this provision alone will increase the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit by 

0.24 percent of taxable payroll and will increase the annual deficit for the 75th projection year 

(2087) by 0.27 percent of payroll.

(7) Increase the special minimum PIA, beginning for workers who become newly eligible for 

retirement or disability benefits or die beginning in 2015.

Under this provision, the minimum initial PIA for worker beneficiaries newly eligible in 2015 

with 30 or more years of coverage (YOCs) is 125 percent of the annual poverty guideline for a 

single individual published by the Department of Health and Human Services for 2014, divided 

by 12. For those with less than 30 YOCs, the PIA per YOC over 10 years is the minimum PIA 

for workers with 30 or more YOCs, divided by 20. We define a YOC as a year in which a 

worker earns 4 quarters of coverage. For beneficiaries newly eligible after 2015, the initial PIA 

per YOC is indexed by growth in the SSA average wage index (AWI) to determine the minimum 

applicable for the year of initial eligibility. After the year of initial eligibility, the minimum 

benefit is increased by the COLA for each cohort. 

 

We estimate that this provision alone will increase the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit by 

0.21 percent of taxable payroll and will increase the annual deficit for the 75th projection year 

(2087) by 0.32 percent of payroll.
9

Detailed Financial Results for the Provisions of the Proposal 

Summary Results by Provision

Table A provides estimates of the effects on the OASDI long-range actuarial balance for each of 

the seven provisions of the proposal separately and on a combined basis. The table also includes 

estimates of the effect of each provision on the annual balance (the difference between income 

rate and the cost rate, expressed as a percent of present-law taxable payroll) for the 75th

projection year, 2087. Interaction among individual provisions is reflected only in the total 

estimates for the combined provisions.

Benefit Illustrations

Tables B1 and B2 provide illustrative examples of the projected change in benefit levels under 

the three provisions that affect benefit levels for beneficiaries retiring at age 65 in future years at 

five selected earnings levels, with selected numbers of years of work. The “Maximum-AIME 

Steady Earner” is assumed to have earnings at ages 22 through 64 that equal the present-law 

taxable maximum level (equivalent to $113,700 for 2013). As a result, the provision to increase 

the taxable maximum does not affect benefit levels illustrated in these tables. Table B3 provides 

additional important information on characteristics of the illustrative retiring workers. 

Table B1 compares the initial benefit levels assuming retirement at age 65 under the provisions 

of the proposal to both scheduled and payable present-law benefit level. All benefit amounts

under the proposal are higher than those scheduled in current law, especially for the very low and 

low hypothetical earners with at least 30 years of earnings (due largely to the minimum benefit 

provision). The final two columns of this table show the level of scheduled benefits under the 

proposal as a percentage of present-law scheduled and present-law payable benefits, 

respectively. 

Table B2 compares the change in scheduled benefit levels at ages 65, 75, 85, and 95 under the 

proposal to scheduled benefits under present law, assuming retirement at age 65. Table B2 

shows that projected scheduled benefits under the provisions of this proposal increase in relation 

to present-law scheduled benefits between ages 65 and 95, because of the change in computing 

the COLA. 

The hypothetical workers represented in these tables reflect average career-earnings patterns of 

workers who started receiving retirement benefits under the Social Security program in recent 

years. The tables subdivide workers with very low and low career-average earnings levels by 

their numbers of years of non-zero earnings. 
10

Table B3 provides information helpful in interpreting the benefit illustrations in tables B1 and 

B2. Percentages in Table B3 are based on tabulations from a 10-percent sample of newlyentitled retired workers in 2007. Table B3 displays the percentages of these newly-entitled 

retired workers in 2007 that are closest to each of the illustrative examples and are: 

1) “Dually Entitled”, meaning they received a higher spouse or widow(er) benefit based on 

the career earnings of their husband or wife,

2) “WEP” (Windfall Elimination Provision), meaning that they received a reduced benefit 

due to having a pension based on earnings that were not covered under the OASDI 

program (primarily certain government workers), and they had less than 30 years of 

substantial earnings that were taxable under the OASDI program,

3) “Foreign Born”, meaning that they entered the Social Security coverage area after birth 

(and generally after entering working ages), and

4) “All Others”, meaning they had none of the three characteristics listed above.

The extent to which retired-worker beneficiaries represented by each of the illustrative examples 

has any of the characteristics listed above (dually entitled, WEP, foreign born) is important 

because such individuals are less dependent on the OASDI benefit that relates to their own 

career-average earnings level. 

Detailed Tables Containing Annual and Summary Estimates

Enclosed with this letter are two sets of tables. Tables 1, 1a, 1b, 1b.n, 1c, and 1d comprise the 

first set and provide projections for the proposal under the expected-yield assumption for equity 

investments. The second set of tables, tables 2, are similar to tables 1, except that they provide 

projections under the low-yield assumption; the real rate of return on equities is ultimately 

assumed to equal that on long-term Treasury bonds, 2.9 percent. The last section on sensitivity 

analysis provides additional details on this second set of tables.

Trust Fund Operations

Table 1 provides projections of the financial operations of the OASDI program and shows that 

the combined OASDI Trust Funds would remain solvent throughout the 75-year period. The 

table shows the annual cost and income rates, annual balances, and trust fund ratios (reserves as 

percent of annual program cost) for OASDI, as well as the change from present law in these cost 

rates, income rates, and balances. Included at the bottom of this table are summarized rates for 

the 75-year (long-range) period.

The actuarial balance for the OASDI program over the 75-year projection period is improved by 

2.77 percent of taxable payroll, from an actuarial deficit of 2.72 percent of payroll under current 

law to a surplus of 0.05 percent of taxable payroll.

Program Transfers and Trust Fund Reserves

Column 2 of Table 1a provides a projection of the level of reserves for the theoretical combined 

OASI and DI Trust Funds. These trust fund reserve amounts are expressed in present value 
11

dollars discounted to January 1, 2013, using the proposal yield, including the expected yield of 

equity investments for the appropriate share of reserves. The table indicates that the provisions 

include no new specified transfers of general revenue to the Trust Funds. For purpose of 

comparison, the OASDI trust fund reserves, expressed in present value dollars discounted using 

the present-law yield, are also shown for the current-law Social Security program both without 

and with the added proposal general fund transfers (zero in this case) in columns 4 and 5. 

Note that negative values in columns 4 and 5 represent the “unfunded obligation” for the 

program through the year. The unfunded obligation is the present value of the shortfall of 

revenue needed to pay full scheduled benefits on a timely basis from the date of trust fund 

reserve depletion through the end of the indicated year. Gross Domestic Product (GDP),

expressed in present value dollars, is shown in column 3 (discounted using the proposal trust 

fund reserve yield) and column 6 (discounted using the present-law trust fund reserve yield) for 

comparison with other values in the table.

Effect of the Social Security Provisions on the Federal Budget

Table 1b shows the projected effect, in present value discounted dollars, on the Federal budget 

(unified-budget and on-budget) cash flows and balances, assuming enactment of the seven Social 

Security provisions of this proposal. Table 1b.n provides the estimated nominal dollar effect of 

enactment of the proposal on annual budget balances for years 2013 through 2023, as well as the 

net purchase or sale of equities during this period. All values in these tables represent the 

amount of change from the level projected under current law. 

Column 1 of Table 1b shows the net purchase or sale of equities under this proposal. Purchase 

of equities for the Trust Funds is considered a budget expenditure. As a result, sale of equities, 

when needed for rebalancing the trust fund reserves, is considered a budget receipt. Column 2 

shows the net changes in OASDI cash flow from all other provisions of the proposal. 

The net effect of the proposal on unified budget cash flow (column 3) is expected to be positive

in 2015 (reflecting the payroll tax applied to earnings above $400,000 as is prescribed in 

provision 3), negative in 2016-19 due to the net purchase of equities provision, and positive in 

years 2020 and later.

Column 4 of Table 1b indicates that the effect of implementing the seven provisions is a

reduction of the Federal debt held by the public, reaching about $10.2 trillion in present value at 

the end of the 75-year projection period. Column 5 provides the projected effect of the proposal

on the annual unified budget balances, including both the cash flow effect in column 3 and the 

additional interest on the accumulated debt in column 4. Columns 6 and 7 indicate that the 

provisions of this proposal would have no expected direct effects on the on-budget cash flow, or 

on the total Federal debt, in the future.

It is important to note that these estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2013

Trustees Report and thus are not consistent with estimates made by the Office of Management 

and Budget or the Congressional Budget Office based on their assumptions. In particular, all 
12

present values are discounted using trust fund yield and inflation assumptions under the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2013 Trustees Report.

Annual Trust Fund Operations as a Percent of GDP

Table 1c provides annual cost, annual expenditures (amount that would be payable), and annual 

tax income for the OASDI program expressed as a percentage of GDP under the expected-yield

assumption for equity investments. These values are shown for both present law and assuming 

enactment of the seven Social Security provisions of the proposal. Showing the annual trust fund 

cash flows as a percent of GDP provides an additional perspective on these trust fund operations 

in relation to the total value of goods and services produced in the United States. The 

relationship between income and cost is similar when expressed as a percent of GDP to that 

when expressed as a percent of taxable payroll (Table 1). 

Effects on Trust Fund Reserves and Unfunded Obligations

Table 1d provides estimates of the changes in trust fund reserves. Values in in the first 6 

columns of the table are expressed in present value dollars discounted to January 1, 2013 under 

the present-law trust fund bond yield because equity investment is not included. Only in column 

7, where equity yield affects trust fund reserve holdings, does the present value discounting 

reflect the overall assumed trust fund yield including equity holdings. 

For the 75-year (long-range) period as a whole, the present-law unfunded obligation of $9.6

trillion is replaced by a surplus of $0.5 trillion in present value, when including equities (column 

7). This $10.0 trillion change results from: 

 A $12.7 trillion increase in revenue (column 2), primarily from additional payroll tax, 

minus

 A $3.2 trillion increase in cost (column 3), primarily from the special minimum PIA

provision, calculating the COLA using the CPI-E rather than the CPI-W, increasing 

current and future benefits by replacing the 90 factor in the PIA formula with 93, and 

increased benefits from additional earnings taxed above the current-law taxable 

maximum.

 A $0.5 trillion difference from equity investment (the difference between columns 6 

and 7).

Sensitivity Analysis: Low-Yield or Risk-Adjusted Assumption

Tables 2 are similar to tables 1, except that the real rate of return on equities is ultimately 

assumed to equal that on long-term Treasury bonds, 2.9 percent. We provide these additional 

estimates based on low-yield assumptions because investments of all types, especially equities, 

involve substantial uncertainty and variation in returns from year to year. These results also 

represent the “risk-adjusted” return for reserves.
13

We hope these estimates are helpful. Please let me know if we may provide further assistance.

Sincerely,

Stephen C. Goss

Chief Actuary

Enclosures
Table A--Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of the 

Social Security 2100 Act, Introduced by Representative Larson

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

in 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

1) Invest up to 25 percent of OASDI Trust Fund reserves in 

equities (phased in 2016-2025), assuming an ultimate 6.4 

percent real rate of return on equities ................................................................0.38 ................ 0.00

2) Increase the OASDI payroll tax rate (currently 12.4 percent) 

by 0.1 percentage point each year from 2018-2037, until the 

rate reaches 14.4 percent in 2037 and later, and modify the 

allocation of the payroll tax rate between the OASI and DI 

Trust Funds to roughly equalize the actuarial status of the two 

funds................................................................................................................................ 1.45 .................. 1.99

3) Apply OASDI payroll tax rate on earnings above $400,000 

starting in 2015, and tax all earnings once the current-law 

taxable maximum exceeds $400,000. Credit the additional 

earnings for benefit purposes by: (a) calculating a second 

average indexed monthly earnings ("AIME+") reflecting only 

earnings taxed above the current law taxable maximum, (b) 

applying a 2 percent factor on this newly computed "AIME+" 

to develop a second component of the PIA, and (c) adding this 

second component to the current-law PIA ................................................................ 1.83 .................................... 2.35

4) Increase the threshold for taxation of OASDI benefits to 

$50,000 for single filers and $100,000 for joint filers starting 

in 2015. Taxation of benefits revenues transferred to the 

Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund would be the same as if the 

current-law computation applied................................................................................................ -0.12 ................... -0.01

5) Starting December 2015, compute the COLA using the 

Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E). We estimate 

this new computation will increase the annual cost-of-living 

adjustment (COLA) by about 0.2 percentage point, on average ................................ -0.37 ................................-0.53 ...

6) Increase the first PIA formula factor from 90 percent to 93 

percent for all beneficiaries eligible as of January 2015 and for 

those newly eligible for benefits after January 2015................................................................ -0.24 ..................... -0.27
Table A--Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of the 

Social Security 2100 Act, Introduced by Representative Larson

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

in 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

7) Beginning in 2015, reconfigure the special minimum benefit

for beneficiaries newly eligible after 2014: (a) A year of 

coverage is defined as a year in which 4 quarters of coverage 

are earned. (b) For those newly eligible in 2015, set the PIA 

for 30 years of coverage equal to 125 percent of the HHS 

monthly poverty level for 2014. For those with under 30 years 

of coverage, the PIA per year of coverage over 10 years is 

125% of the Health and Human Services (HHS) monthly 

poverty level divided by 20. (c) For beneficiaries newly 

eligible after 2015, index the initial PIA per year of coverage 

by growth in the SSA average wage index ................................................................ -0.21 ................................-0.32 ...

Total for all provisions, including interaction ................................................................ 2.77 .........3.55

1Under current law, the estimated long-range OASDI actuarial balance is -2.72 percent of taxable payroll.

2Under current law, the estimated 75th year annual balance is -4.77 percent of taxable payroll.

Note: Use of the low-yield or “risk-adjusted” return assumption for equity investments alters the estimates for 

the total effect of all provisions, including interaction, as follows:

 

 Change in the long-range OASDI actuarial balance: 2.55 percent of taxable payroll.

 Change in the annual balance in the 75th year: 3.55 percent of taxable payroll.

Notes: All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2013 OASDI Trustees Report. 

 Estimates of individual provisions appear on a stand-alone basis relative to current law, unless otherwise stated.

Social Security Administration

Office of the Chief Actuary

July 31, 2014
Year 

Attain Benefit Minimum

Age 65 (Wage-Indexed (CPI-Indexed COLA4

Formula5 Benefit6 Total Scheduled Payable

2013 Dollars) 2013 Dollars)

 

2013 705 705 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 603 787 0.6 3.2 55.4 61.3 161 161

2050 605 986 0.6 3.2 55.4 61.3 161 208

2080 605 1,357 0.6 3.2 55.4 61.3 161 220

 

2013 705 705 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 603 787 0.6 3.2 0.0 3.8 104 104

2050 605 986 0.6 3.2 0.0 3.8 104 134

2080 605 1,357 0.6 3.2 0.0 3.8 104 142

 

2013 705 705 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 603 787 0.6 3.2 0.0 3.8 104 104

2050 605 986 0.6 3.2 0.0 3.8 104 134

2080 605 1,357 0.6 3.2 0.0 3.8 104 142

2013 921 921 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 788 1,029 0.6 2.4 19.7 23.3 123 123

2050 792 1,290 0.6 2.4 19.7 23.3 123 159

2080 791 1,775 0.6 2.4 19.7 23.3 123 168

2013 921 921 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 788 1,029 0.6 2.4 19.7 23.3 123 123

2050 792 1,290 0.6 2.4 19.7 23.3 123 159

2080 791 1,775 0.6 2.4 19.7 23.3 123 168

2013 921 921 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 788 1,029 0.6 2.4 0.0 3.0 103 103

2050 792 1,290 0.6 2.4 0.0 3.0 103 133

2080 791 1,775 0.6 2.4 0.0 3.0 103 141

2013 1,518 1,518 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 1,299 1,696 0.6 1.5 0.0 2.1 102 102

2050 1,304 2,125 0.6 1.5 0.0 2.1 102 132

2080 1,304 2,925 0.6 1.5 0.0 2.1 102 139

2013 1,518 1,518 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 1,299 1,696 0.6 1.5 0.0 2.1 102 102

2050 1,304 2,125 0.6 1.5 0.0 2.1 102 132

2080 1,304 2,925 0.6 1.5 0.0 2.1 102 139

2013 2,013 2,013 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 1,722 2,247 0.6 1.1 0.0 1.7 102 102

2050 1,728 2,816 0.6 1.1 0.0 1.7 102 131

2080 1,727 3,875 0.6 1.1 0.0 1.7 102 139

2013 2,415 2,415 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 2,106 2,749 0.6 0.9 0.0 1.5 102 102

2050 2,113 3,443 0.6 0.9 0.0 1.5 102 131

2080 2,106 4,725 0.6 0.9 0.0 1.5 102 139

1 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2013.

2

Projected percent of new retired worker awards in 2050 closest to AIME levels and years of work.

3 After the trust fund reserves deplete under present law continuing taxes are expected to be enough to pay about three fourths of scheduled benefits.

4

5

6

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2013 Trustees Report.

Table B1. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Beginning Benefit Receipt at age 65 

Social Security 2100 Act , introduced by Representative Larson

Scheduled Benefit Level Percent Change at age 65

Present Law Scheduled Proposal Scheduled Benefit

Monthly Benefits3 Percent of Present Law:

(Percent change) (Percents)

 Low-AIME ($20,172 for 20131) 44-Year Scaled Earner (15.1% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($20,172 for 20131) 30-Year Scaled Earner (5.0% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($20,172 for 20131) 20-Year Scaled Earner (2.3% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($44,826 for 20131) 44-Year Scaled Earner (28.9% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,207 for 20131) 30-Year Scaled Earner (8.4% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,207 for 20131) 20-Year Scaled Earner (4.8% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,207 for 20131) 14-Year Scaled Earner (4.5% of Retirees2)

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration July 31, 2014

 Medium-AIME ($44,826 for 20131) 30-Year Scaled Earner (2.7% of Retirees2)

 High-AIME ($71,722 for 20131) 44-Year Scaled Earner (21.8% of Retirees2)

 Maximum-AIME ($113,700 for 20131) 43-Year Steady Earner (6.6% of Retirees2)

Starting Dec 2015, compute the COLA using a chained CPI-E, producing 0.2% higher annual COLAs on average.

For benefits payable beginning for 2015, increase the 90 percent PIA factor to 93 percent.

For beneficiaries newly eligible in 2015, establish a minimum PIA level such that a worker with 30/10 years of coverage would receive an initial PIA of at least 125%/0% of the 

monthly poverty level for 2014. For beneficiaries newly eligible after 2015, the initial minimum PIA level would be adjusted for average wage growth. The Minimum Benefit 

Percent change is calculated after all other provisions, so that the Proposed Benefit Amount is at least the Minimum Benefit, where applicable.
Year 

Attain

Age 65 Age 65 Age 75 Age 85 Age 95

2013 100.0 104.8 106.9 109.0

2030 161.3 164.4 167.7 171.0

2050 161.3 164.5 167.7 171.0

2080 161.3 164.5 167.7 171.0

2013 100.0 104.8 106.9 109.0

2030 103.8 105.8 107.9 110.0

2050 103.8 105.8 107.9 110.0

2080 103.8 105.8 107.9 110.0

2013 100.0 104.8 106.9 109.0

2030 103.8 105.8 107.9 110.0

2050 103.8 105.8 107.9 110.0

2080 103.8 105.8 107.9 110.0

2013 100.0 104.1 106.1 108.2

2030 123.3 125.7 128.2 130.7

2050 123.3 125.7 128.2 130.7

2080 123.3 125.7 128.2 130.7

2013 100.0 104.1 106.1 108.2

2030 123.3 125.7 128.2 130.7

2050 123.3 125.7 128.2 130.7

2080 123.3 125.7 128.2 130.7

2013 100.0 104.1 106.1 108.2

2030 103.0 105.1 107.1 109.2

2050 103.0 105.1 107.1 109.2

2080 103.0 105.1 107.1 109.2

2013 100.0 103.1 105.1 107.2

2030 102.1 104.1 106.1 108.2

2050 102.1 104.1 106.1 108.2

2080 102.1 104.1 106.1 108.2

2013 100.0 103.1 105.1 107.2

2030 102.1 104.1 106.1 108.2

2050 102.1 104.1 106.1 108.2

2080 102.1 104.1 106.1 108.2

2013 100.0 102.7 104.7 106.8

2030 101.7 103.7 105.7 107.8

2050 101.7 103.7 105.7 107.8

2080 101.7 103.7 105.7 107.8

2013 100.0 102.5 104.5 106.6

2030 101.5 103.5 105.5 107.6

2050 101.5 103.5 105.5 107.6

2080 101.5 103.5 105.5 107.6

1 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2013.

2

Projected percent of new retired worker awards in 2050 closest to AIME levels and years of work.

Note: Starting Dec 2015, compute the COLA using a chained CPI-E, producing 0.2% higher annual COLAs on average.

Other Changes: 

-

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2013 Trustees Report.

Table B2. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Beginning Benefit Receipt at age 65 

Social Security 2100 Act , introduced by Representative Larson

Proposal Scheduled Benefit as Percent of Present Law Scheduled

(Percent)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,207 for 20131) 30-Year Scaled Earner (8.4% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,207 for 20131) 20-Year Scaled Earner (4.8% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,207 for 20131) 14-Year Scaled Earner (4.5% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($20,172 for 20131) 44-Year Scaled Earner (15.1% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($20,172 for 20131) 30-Year Scaled Earner (5.0% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($20,172 for 20131) 20-Year Scaled Earner (2.3% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($44,826 for 20131) 44-Year Scaled Earner (28.9% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($44,826 for 20131) 30-Year Scaled Earner (2.7% of Retirees2)

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration July 31, 2014

 High-AIME ($71,722 for 20131) 44-Year Scaled Earner (21.8% of Retirees2)

 Maximum-AIME ($113,700 for 20131) 43-Year Steady Earner (6.6% of Retirees2)

 For benefits payable beginning for 2015, increase the 90 percent PIA factor to 93 percent.

For beneficiaries newly eligible in 2015, establish a minimum PIA level such that a worker with 30/10 years of coverage would receive an initial PIA of at least 125%/0% of the 

monthly poverty level for 2014. For beneficiaries newly eligible after 2015, the initial minimum PIA level would be adjusted for average wage growth.
Category Dually Entitled2 WEP3

Foreign Born All Others4

Very-Low-AIME ($11,207 for 20131):

30-Year Scaled Earner (9.3% of Retirees) 47 6 11 40

20-Year Scaled Earner (5.8% of Retirees) 38 16 21 31

14-Year Scaled Earner (5.3% of Retirees) 22 21 45 20

Low-AIME ($20,172 for 20131):

44-Year Scaled Earner (13.1% of Retirees) 15 2 6 78

30-Year Scaled Earner (5.9% of Retirees) 16 9 18 59

20-Year Scaled Earner (3.1% of Retirees) 10 23 35 37

Medium-AIME ($44,826 for 20131):

44-Year Scaled Earner (23.0% of Retirees) 1 1 5 93

30-Year Scaled Earner (4.4% of Retirees) 1 8 26 67

High-AIME ($71,722 for 20131):

44-Year Scaled Earner (20.5% of Retirees) 0 0 6 93

Maximum-AIME ($113,700 for 20131):

Steady Earner (9.4% of Retirees) 0 0 7 93

1 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2013.

2

3 Covered by pension from government employment and are subject to the windfall elimination provision (WEP).

4 Neither foreign born, subject to WEP, or dually entitled.

May 14, 2013

Under current law, entitled to an additional benefit based on someone else's account. The dually entitled percent is a minimum value. Some beneficiaries that are not currently 

dually entitled could become dually entitled in the future.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration

Table B3. Important Characteristics of Hypothetical Workers in 2007

Percent of Beneficiaries Within Each Category That Are:

Note 1: Percents based on tabulations of a 10-percent sample of newly entitled retired-worker beneficiaries in 2007 (169,725 records). We can be 95 percent confident that each of 

the values shown above is within 1.4 percentage points of the value we would find using 100 percent of the retirees in 2007.

Note 2: The sum of the percentages for each category (sum across rows) could be greater than 100 percent because some beneficiaries can be classified in more than one of the 

following groups: dually entitled, WEP, and foreign born. 
Expected yield assumption

Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2013 13.95 12.69 -1.26 330 0.00 0.00 0.00

2014 14.04 12.83 -1.20 315 0.00 0.00 0.00

2015 14.19 13.48 -0.71 296 0.22 0.62 0.39

2016 14.17 13.60 -0.57 283 0.26 0.72 0.46

2017 14.17 13.67 -0.50 271 0.29 0.77 0.48

2018 14.24 13.84 -0.39 261 0.33 0.91 0.59

2019 14.42 14.00 -0.42 252 0.36 1.05 0.69

2020 14.66 14.15 -0.51 244 0.40 1.18 0.78

2021 14.89 14.31 -0.57 237 0.44 1.32 0.88

2022 15.19 14.48 -0.71 229 0.48 1.45 0.97

2023 15.49 14.64 -0.85 222 0.52 1.60 1.08

2024 15.79 14.80 -0.99 215 0.56 1.74 1.18

2025 16.07 14.96 -1.11 208 0.60 1.89 1.29

2026 16.34 15.12 -1.22 201 0.63 2.03 1.40

2027 16.60 15.28 -1.31 195 0.67 2.18 1.52

2028 16.84 15.45 -1.39 189 0.70 2.34 1.63

2029 17.06 15.61 -1.45 183 0.74 2.49 1.76

2030 17.26 15.78 -1.48 176 0.77 2.65 1.88

2031 17.43 15.95 -1.48 170 0.80 2.81 2.01

2032 17.58 16.12 -1.45 164 0.82 2.97 2.15

2033 17.71 16.29 -1.41 159 0.85 3.14 2.29

2034 17.81 16.47 -1.34 153 0.88 3.31 2.43

2035 17.88 16.64 -1.24 149 0.90 3.48 2.58

2036 17.93 16.82 -1.11 145 0.92 3.65 2.74

2037 17.96 17.00 -0.96 141 0.94 3.83 2.90

2038 17.97 17.08 -0.89 139 0.95 3.91 2.96

2039 17.96 17.16 -0.80 137 0.97 3.99 3.02

2040 17.94 17.24 -0.70 136 0.98 4.07 3.09

2041 17.92 17.33 -0.59 135 0.99 4.15 3.17

2042 17.89 17.41 -0.48 135 1.00 4.24 3.24

2043 17.87 17.50 -0.37 135 1.01 4.34 3.33

2044 17.86 17.60 -0.26 136 1.01 4.43 3.42

2045 17.85 17.68 -0.17 138 1.02 4.51 3.48

2046 17.85 17.69 -0.16 140 1.03 4.52 3.49

2047 17.84 17.70 -0.14 142 1.03 4.53 3.49

2048 17.83 17.70 -0.13 145 1.04 4.53 3.50

2049 17.83 17.71 -0.12 147 1.04 4.54 3.50

2050 17.83 17.72 -0.11 150 1.05 4.55 3.50

2051 17.84 17.73 -0.11 152 1.05 4.56 3.51

2052 17.86 17.74 -0.13 155 1.05 4.56 3.51

2053 17.89 17.74 -0.15 158 1.06 4.57 3.51

2054 17.93 17.75 -0.18 160 1.06 4.58 3.51

2055 17.98 17.76 -0.21 163 1.07 4.58 3.52

2056 18.03 17.77 -0.26 165 1.07 4.59 3.52

2057 18.08 17.78 -0.30 167 1.07 4.59 3.52

2058 18.13 17.79 -0.34 168 1.08 4.60 3.52

2059 18.18 17.80 -0.38 170 1.08 4.60 3.52

2060 18.22 17.80 -0.42 171 1.08 4.61 3.52

2061 18.27 17.81 -0.46 173 1.09 4.61 3.53

2062 18.32 17.82 -0.50 174 1.09 4.62 3.53

2063 18.36 17.83 -0.54 174 1.09 4.62 3.53

2064 18.41 17.83 -0.58 175 1.10 4.63 3.53

2065 18.46 17.84 -0.62 176 1.10 4.63 3.53

2066 18.51 17.85 -0.66 176 1.10 4.64 3.53

2067 18.56 17.85 -0.70 176 1.11 4.64 3.53

2068 18.61 17.86 -0.75 176 1.11 4.64 3.53

2069 18.65 17.87 -0.79 175 1.11 4.65 3.53

2070 18.70 17.87 -0.83 174 1.12 4.65 3.53

2071 18.74 17.88 -0.87 174 1.12 4.66 3.53

2072 18.78 17.88 -0.89 173 1.12 4.66 3.54

2073 18.81 17.89 -0.92 172 1.13 4.66 3.54

2074 18.83 17.90 -0.94 170 1.13 4.67 3.54

2075 18.85 17.90 -0.95 169 1.13 4.67 3.54

2076 18.86 17.90 -0.96 168 1.13 4.67 3.54

2077 18.87 17.91 -0.96 167 1.13 4.68 3.54

2078 18.87 17.91 -0.96 165 1.13 4.68 3.55

2079 18.88 17.91 -0.97 164 1.13 4.68 3.55

2080 18.90 17.92 -0.98 162 1.14 4.69 3.55

2081 18.91 17.92 -0.99 161 1.14 4.69 3.55

2082 18.94 17.93 -1.01 159 1.14 4.69 3.55

2083 18.97 17.93 -1.04 157 1.14 4.69 3.55

2084 19.01 17.94 -1.08 155 1.14 4.70 3.55

2085 19.06 17.94 -1.12 152 1.15 4.70 3.55

2086 19.11 17.95 -1.17 150 1.15 4.70 3.55

2087 19.17 17.95 -1.21 147 1.15 4.71 3.55

2088 19.22 17.96 -1.26 143 1.16 4.71 3.55

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

17.18% 17.23% 0.05% N/A 0.59% 3.35% 2.77%

1 Under present law the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2033

Year of reserve 

depletion1

Summarized Rates: OASDI

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2013 Trustees Report

July 31, 2014

Summarized Rates: OASDI

2013 - 2087

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll

Change from Present Law

Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

Social Security 2100 Act, introduced by Representative Larson 

Proposal
Expected yield assumption

Present Value in Billions as of 1-1-2013

Annual General Fund 

Transfers

Proposal Total 

OASDI Trust Fund

Reserves at End of 

Year

Gross 

Domestic 

Product

OASDI Trust Fund 

Reserves (Unfunded 

Obligation) Without 

General Fund Transfers

OASDI Trust Fund 

Reserves (Unfunded 

Obligation) With General 

Fund Transfers

Gross 

Domestic 

Product

PV using present law yield PV using proposal yield PV using present law yield

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

2013 0.0 2,659.4 16,046.1 2,659.4 2,659.4 16,046.1

2014 0.0 2,588.7 16,275.4 2,588.7 2,588.7 16,275.4

2015 0.0 2,546.0 16,669.8 2,522.2 2,522.2 16,669.9

2016 0.0 2,511.0 17,065.9 2,458.5 2,458.5 17,071.8

2017 0.0 2,479.6 17,390.6 2,396.2 2,396.2 17,420.5

2018 0.0 2,454.4 17,623.0 2,332.2 2,332.2 17,701.8

2019 0.0 2,427.3 17,738.1 2,259.1 2,259.1 17,889.6

2020 0.0 2,394.4 17,768.3 2,173.1 2,173.1 18,015.1

2021 0.0 2,357.1 17,744.1 2,075.6 2,075.6 18,108.0

2022 0.0 2,311.3 17,671.6 1,962.3 1,962.3 18,173.3

2023 0.0 2,256.5 17,552.3 1,832.1 1,832.1 18,206.5

2024 0.0 2,193.7 17,377.6 1,686.0 1,686.0 18,192.0

2025 0.0 2,123.8 17,144.4 1,524.9 1,524.9 18,121.5

2026 0.0 2,048.4 16,864.0 1,350.7 1,350.7 17,997.1

2027 0.0 1,969.1 16,546.5 1,164.9 1,164.9 17,816.9

2028 0.0 1,886.8 16,213.1 968.9 968.9 17,606.2

2029 0.0 1,803.1 15,881.3 764.1 764.1 17,392.3

2030 0.0 1,719.5 15,555.6 552.1 552.1 17,180.2

2031 0.0 1,637.7 15,239.3 334.7 334.7 16,973.8

2032 0.0 1,558.9 14,930.2 113.3 113.3 16,770.7

2033 0.0 1,484.1 14,628.6 -111.2 -111.2 16,571.4

2034 0.0 1,414.6 14,339.3 -337.1 -337.1 16,381.7

2035 0.0 1,352.0 14,060.6 -562.9 -562.9 16,199.7

2036 0.0 1,297.3 13,789.8 -787.5 -787.5 16,022.7

2037 0.0 1,251.0 13,525.3 -1,010.1 -1,010.1 15,848.7

2038 0.0 1,209.1 13,267.6 -1,229.7 -1,229.7 15,678.8

2039 0.0 1,172.2 13,019.2 -1,445.4 -1,445.4 15,515.9

2040 0.0 1,140.7 12,773.0 -1,656.9 -1,656.9 15,351.7

2041 0.0 1,114.7 12,532.2 -1,864.1 -1,864.1 15,190.2

2042 0.0 1,094.3 12,295.5 -2,067.0 -2,067.0 15,029.9

2043 0.0 1,079.2 12,062.3 -2,265.9 -2,265.9 14,870.1

2044 0.0 1,069.2 11,831.9 -2,461.4 -2,461.4 14,710.0

2045 0.0 1,062.9 11,605.6 -2,653.6 -2,653.6 14,551.1

2046 0.0 1,057.4 11,382.7 -2,843.0 -2,843.0 14,392.9

2047 0.0 1,052.6 11,162.6 -3,029.4 -3,029.4 14,234.3

2048 0.0 1,048.5 10,944.7 -3,212.7 -3,212.7 14,075.0

2049 0.0 1,045.0 10,728.4 -3,393.3 -3,393.3 13,914.0

2050 0.0 1,041.7 10,515.3 -3,571.6 -3,571.6 13,753.5

2051 0.0 1,038.4 10,305.2 -3,747.8 -3,747.8 13,593.1

2052 0.0 1,034.7 10,097.3 -3,922.5 -3,922.5 13,432.0

2053 0.0 1,030.3 9,892.6 -4,096.0 -4,096.0 13,271.4

2054 0.0 1,024.9 9,691.5 -4,268.7 -4,268.7 13,112.1

2055 0.0 1,018.5 9,493.9 -4,440.8 -4,440.8 12,953.8

2056 0.0 1,010.9 9,299.8 -4,612.6 -4,612.6 12,796.8

2057 0.0 1,002.0 9,109.7 -4,784.0 -4,784.0 12,641.6

2058 0.0 992.0 8,923.1 -4,955.1 -4,955.1 12,487.9

2059 0.0 981.0 8,740.4 -5,125.7 -5,125.7 12,336.1

2060 0.0 969.0 8,561.5 -5,295.8 -5,295.8 12,186.2

2061 0.0 956.0 8,386.7 -5,465.5 -5,465.5 12,038.8

2062 0.0 942.2 8,216.2 -5,634.5 -5,634.5 11,894.1

2063 0.0 927.6 8,049.1 -5,802.9 -5,802.9 11,751.2

2064 0.0 912.2 7,885.7 -5,970.8 -5,970.8 11,610.4

2065 0.0 896.1 7,725.8 -6,138.0 -6,138.0 11,471.5

2066 0.0 879.1 7,569.3 -6,304.8 -6,304.8 11,334.7

2067 0.0 861.4 7,416.5 -6,471.1 -6,471.1 11,200.2

2068 0.0 843.1 7,267.1 -6,636.8 -6,636.8 11,067.7

2069 0.0 824.0 7,120.9 -6,802.0 -6,802.0 10,937.2

2070 0.0 804.4 6,977.9 -6,966.6 -6,966.6 10,808.6

2071 0.0 784.3 6,838.0 -7,130.5 -7,130.5 10,681.8

2072 0.0 763.9 6,701.1 -7,293.3 -7,293.3 10,556.8

2073 0.0 743.5 6,566.9 -7,454.9 -7,454.9 10,433.3

2074 0.0 723.0 6,435.3 -7,615.2 -7,615.2 10,311.0

2075 0.0 702.7 6,306.3 -7,774.0 -7,774.0 10,190.2

2076 0.0 682.7 6,179.6 -7,931.0 -7,931.0 10,070.3

2077 0.0 663.0 6,055.2 -8,086.1 -8,086.1 9,951.4

2078 0.0 643.7 5,932.9 -8,239.4 -8,239.4 9,833.1

2079 0.0 624.8 5,812.8 -8,390.9 -8,390.9 9,715.8

2080 0.0 606.0 5,694.8 -8,540.9 -8,540.9 9,599.4

2081 0.0 587.4 5,579.0 -8,689.4 -8,689.4 9,484.1

2082 0.0 568.7 5,465.2 -8,836.7 -8,836.7 9,369.5

2083 0.0 549.9 5,353.2 -8,983.1 -8,983.1 9,255.6

2084 0.0 530.8 5,243.1 -9,128.6 -9,128.6 9,142.2

2085 0.0 511.5 5,134.9 -9,273.6 -9,273.6 9,029.5

2086 0.0 491.7 5,028.6 -9,418.0 -9,418.0 8,917.7

2087 0.0 471.6 4,924.1 -9,561.9 -9,561.9 8,806.6

2088 0.0 451.1 4,821.6 -9,705.4 -9,705.4 8,696.5

Total 2013-2087 0.0

Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2013 Trustees Report

Note: Columns 1, 4-6 show present values discount at current-law Treasury bond yield; the ultimate annual real trust fund yield equals 2.9%.

 Columns 2-3 show present values discounted at proposal yield, including equity investments; the ultimate annual real trust fund yield equals 3.8%. Office of the Chief Actuary

1 Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption that Social Security Administration

Theoretical Social Security 1

with Borrowing Authority

 the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury.

Calendar

Year

July 31, 2014

Table 1a - General Fund Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Reserves, and Theoretical OASDI Reserves

Social Security 2100 Act, introduced by Representative Larson 
Expected yield assumption

Year

Net Purchase 

or Sale 

(negative) of 

Equities

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End Of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

 (1) (2) (3) = (2) - (1) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2013 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2015 0.0 23.8 23.8 -23.8 23.8 0.0 0.0

2016 61.2 28.7 -32.5 8.7 -31.7 0.0 0.0

2017 56.6 30.8 -25.9 34.6 -26.2 0.0 0.0

2018 52.9 38.6 -14.3 48.9 -15.6 0.0 0.0

2019 49.3 45.8 -3.5 52.4 -5.4 0.0 0.0

2020 45.4 52.5 7.1 45.3 5.1 0.0 0.0

2021 41.5 59.4 17.9 27.4 16.1 0.0 0.0

2022 36.9 66.0 29.1 -1.7 28.0 0.0 0.0

2023 32.5 73.2 40.7 -42.4 40.8 0.0 0.0

2024 28.0 80.2 52.2 -94.6 54.1 0.0 0.0

2025 23.4 87.0 63.6 -158.2 68.2 0.0 0.0

2026 -35.2 93.7 128.9 -287.0 137.1 0.0 0.0

2027 -34.9 100.2 135.1 -422.1 150.7 0.0 0.0

2028 -35.4 106.6 141.9 -564.0 165.0 0.0 0.0

2029 -35.5 113.0 148.5 -712.5 179.4 0.0 0.0

2030 -35.2 119.5 154.8 -867.3 193.7 0.0 0.0

2031 -34.4 126.1 160.5 -1,027.8 207.9 0.0 0.0

2032 -33.3 132.8 166.1 -1,193.9 222.2 0.0 0.0

2033 -32.0 139.5 171.5 -1,365.4 236.7 0.0 0.0

2034 -30.2 146.5 176.6 -1,542.0 251.2 0.0 0.0

2035 -28.0 153.6 181.5 -1,723.5 265.8 0.0 0.0

2036 -25.5 160.8 186.3 -1,909.9 280.5 0.0 0.0

2037 -22.9 168.2 191.1 -2,100.9 295.5 0.0 0.0

2038 -21.5 169.9 191.4 -2,292.3 306.2 0.0 0.0

2039 -19.8 171.6 191.4 -2,483.7 316.7 0.0 0.0

2040 -18.1 173.4 191.6 -2,675.3 327.3 0.0 0.0

2041 -16.4 175.5 191.9 -2,867.3 338.2 0.0 0.0

2042 -14.7 177.8 192.4 -3,059.7 349.1 0.0 0.0

2043 -13.0 180.2 193.2 -3,252.9 360.5 0.0 0.0

2044 -11.4 182.8 194.3 -3,447.2 372.0 0.0 0.0

2045 -10.3 184.2 194.5 -3,641.7 382.9 0.0 0.0

2046 -10.1 182.2 192.3 -3,834.0 391.4 0.0 0.0

2047 -9.9 180.1 190.0 -4,024.1 399.6 0.0 0.0

2048 -9.7 178.0 187.7 -4,211.8 407.6 0.0 0.0

2049 -9.6 175.9 185.5 -4,397.3 415.7 0.0 0.0

2050 -9.6 173.8 183.4 -4,580.6 423.7 0.0 0.0

2051 -9.6 171.7 181.4 -4,762.0 431.7 0.0 0.0

2052 -9.8 169.6 179.4 -4,941.4 439.7 0.0 0.0

2053 -10.1 167.5 177.6 -5,119.0 447.6 0.0 0.0

2054 -10.5 165.3 175.8 -5,294.8 455.6 0.0 0.0

2055 -10.9 163.2 174.1 -5,468.9 463.5 0.0 0.0

2056 -11.3 161.1 172.4 -5,641.4 471.3 0.0 0.0

2057 -11.8 159.0 170.8 -5,812.1 479.1 0.0 0.0

2058 -12.2 156.9 169.1 -5,981.3 486.8 0.0 0.0

2059 -12.6 154.9 167.5 -6,148.8 494.4 0.0 0.0

2060 -12.9 152.9 165.8 -6,314.6 501.9 0.0 0.0

2061 -13.3 150.9 164.2 -6,478.7 509.3 0.0 0.0

2062 -13.6 148.9 162.5 -6,641.2 516.6 0.0 0.0

2063 -13.8 147.0 160.8 -6,802.1 523.8 0.0 0.0

2064 -14.1 145.1 159.2 -6,961.2 530.9 0.0 0.0

2065 -14.4 143.1 157.5 -7,118.7 538.0 0.0 0.0

2066 -14.6 141.3 155.9 -7,274.6 545.0 0.0 0.0

2067 -14.9 139.4 154.3 -7,428.9 551.9 0.0 0.0

2068 -15.1 137.6 152.7 -7,581.6 558.7 0.0 0.0

2069 -15.3 135.8 151.1 -7,732.8 565.5 0.0 0.0

2070 -15.5 134.1 149.5 -7,882.3 572.2 0.0 0.0

2071 -15.6 132.4 147.9 -8,030.2 578.7 0.0 0.0

2072 -15.6 130.7 146.3 -8,176.5 585.2 0.0 0.0

2073 -15.6 129.0 144.6 -8,321.2 591.5 0.0 0.0

2074 -15.5 127.4 142.9 -8,464.1 597.7 0.0 0.0

2075 -15.4 125.8 141.2 -8,605.3 603.8 0.0 0.0

2076 -15.2 124.3 139.5 -8,744.7 609.8 0.0 0.0

2077 -15.0 122.7 137.7 -8,882.4 615.6 0.0 0.0

2078 -14.8 121.2 135.9 -9,018.4 621.4 0.0 0.0

2079 -14.5 119.7 134.2 -9,152.6 627.1 0.0 0.0

2080 -14.4 118.2 132.6 -9,285.2 632.8 0.0 0.0

2081 -14.2 116.7 131.0 -9,416.1 638.4 0.0 0.0

2082 -14.2 115.2 129.4 -9,545.5 644.0 0.0 0.0

2083 -14.2 113.7 127.9 -9,673.5 649.6 0.0 0.0

2084 -14.2 112.3 126.4 -9,799.9 655.1 0.0 0.0

2085 -14.2 110.8 125.0 -9,924.9 660.6 0.0 0.0

2086 -14.3 109.3 123.6 -10,048.5 666.0 0.0 0.0

2087 -14.4 107.8 122.2 -10,170.7 671.4 0.0 0.0

-636.3 9,534.5 10,170.7

Note: All present values are discounted at the current-law Treasury bond yield; the ultimate annual real trust fund yield equals 2.9%. Office of the Chief Actuary

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2013 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration

July 31, 2014

Total 2013-87

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2013

Table 1b - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI (Present Value Dollars)

Social Security 2100 Act, introduced by Representative Larson 
Expected yield assumption

Year

Net Purchase or 

Sale (negative) 

of Equities

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

 (1) (2) (3) = (2) - (1) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2013 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2015 0.0 26.1 26.1 -26.5 26.5 0.0 0.0

2016 69.4 32.6 -36.8 10.0 -36.5 0.0 0.0

2017 66.5 36.2 -30.4 41.3 -31.3 0.0 0.0

2018 64.5 47.1 -17.4 60.6 -19.3 0.0 0.0

2019 62.5 58.0 -4.4 67.5 -6.9 0.0 0.0

2020 59.8 69.2 9.4 60.7 6.8 0.0 0.0

2021 57.0 81.5 24.5 38.2 22.5 0.0 0.0

2022 52.8 94.4 41.7 -2.7 40.9 0.0 0.0

2023 48.6 109.3 60.7 -64.9 62.2 0.0 0.0

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2013 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

July 31, 2014

Billions of Nominal Dollars

Table 1b.n - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI (Nominal Dollars)

Social Security 2100 Act, introduced by Representative Larson 
Expected yield assumption

Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income

 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 

2013 5.06 5.06 4.60 5.06 5.06 4.60

2014 5.09 5.09 4.65 5.09 5.09 4.65

2015 5.07 5.07 4.67 5.15 5.15 4.90

2016 5.08 5.08 4.71 5.18 5.18 4.97

2017 5.11 5.11 4.75 5.22 5.22 5.04

2018 5.16 5.16 4.80 5.28 5.28 5.13

2019 5.23 5.23 4.82 5.37 5.37 5.21

2020 5.32 5.32 4.84 5.47 5.47 5.28

2021 5.40 5.40 4.86 5.57 5.57 5.35

2022 5.50 5.50 4.87 5.68 5.68 5.41

2023 5.58 5.58 4.87 5.78 5.78 5.46

2024 5.67 5.67 4.86 5.88 5.88 5.51

2025 5.75 5.75 4.86 5.97 5.97 5.56

2026 5.83 5.83 4.85 6.06 6.06 5.61

2027 5.90 5.90 4.85 6.15 6.15 5.66

2028 5.97 5.97 4.85 6.23 6.23 5.71

2029 6.03 6.03 4.85 6.30 6.30 5.77

2030 6.08 6.08 4.84 6.37 6.37 5.82

2031 6.13 6.13 4.84 6.42 6.42 5.88

2032 6.16 6.16 4.84 6.47 6.47 5.93

2033 6.20 5.50 4.84 6.51 6.51 5.99

2034 6.22 4.83 4.83 6.54 6.54 6.05

2035 6.23 4.83 4.83 6.56 6.56 6.10

2036 6.23 4.82 4.82 6.57 6.57 6.16

2037 6.23 4.82 4.82 6.57 6.57 6.22

2038 6.22 4.82 4.82 6.57 6.57 6.25

2039 6.21 4.81 4.81 6.56 6.56 6.27

2040 6.19 4.81 4.81 6.55 6.55 6.29

2041 6.17 4.80 4.80 6.53 6.53 6.31

2042 6.15 4.79 4.79 6.51 6.51 6.34

2043 6.13 4.79 4.79 6.50 6.50 6.37

2044 6.12 4.78 4.78 6.49 6.49 6.39

2045 6.10 4.78 4.78 6.47 6.47 6.41

2046 6.09 4.77 4.77 6.46 6.46 6.41

2047 6.08 4.76 4.76 6.45 6.45 6.40

2048 6.07 4.76 4.76 6.44 6.44 6.39

2049 6.05 4.75 4.75 6.43 6.43 6.39

2050 6.05 4.74 4.74 6.42 6.42 6.38

2051 6.04 4.74 4.74 6.42 6.42 6.38

2052 6.04 4.73 4.73 6.42 6.42 6.37

2053 6.04 4.73 4.73 6.42 6.42 6.37

2054 6.04 4.72 4.72 6.42 6.42 6.36

2055 6.05 4.72 4.72 6.43 6.43 6.36

2056 6.06 4.71 4.71 6.44 6.44 6.35

2057 6.07 4.70 4.70 6.45 6.45 6.34

2058 6.07 4.70 4.70 6.46 6.46 6.34

2059 6.08 4.69 4.69 6.47 6.47 6.33

2060 6.09 4.69 4.69 6.48 6.48 6.33

2061 6.10 4.68 4.68 6.48 6.48 6.32

2062 6.10 4.68 4.68 6.49 6.49 6.31

2063 6.11 4.67 4.67 6.50 6.50 6.31

2064 6.12 4.67 4.67 6.51 6.51 6.30

2065 6.12 4.66 4.66 6.51 6.51 6.29

2066 6.13 4.65 4.65 6.52 6.52 6.29

2067 6.14 4.65 4.65 6.53 6.53 6.28

2068 6.15 4.64 4.64 6.54 6.54 6.27

2069 6.15 4.64 4.64 6.54 6.54 6.27

2070 6.16 4.63 4.63 6.55 6.55 6.26

2071 6.17 4.63 4.63 6.56 6.56 6.26

2072 6.17 4.62 4.62 6.56 6.56 6.25

2073 6.17 4.62 4.62 6.56 6.56 6.24

2074 6.17 4.61 4.61 6.56 6.56 6.24

2075 6.17 4.61 4.61 6.56 6.56 6.23

2076 6.17 4.60 4.60 6.56 6.56 6.23

2077 6.16 4.60 4.60 6.55 6.55 6.22

2078 6.16 4.59 4.59 6.55 6.55 6.21

2079 6.15 4.59 4.59 6.54 6.54 6.21

2080 6.15 4.58 4.58 6.54 6.54 6.20

2081 6.15 4.58 4.58 6.54 6.54 6.20

2082 6.15 4.57 4.57 6.54 6.54 6.19

2083 6.16 4.57 4.57 6.55 6.55 6.19

2084 6.16 4.57 4.57 6.56 6.56 6.19

2085 6.17 4.56 4.56 6.57 6.57 6.18

2086 6.18 4.56 4.56 6.58 6.58 6.18

2087 6.20 4.56 4.56 6.59 6.59 6.18

Table 1c - Present Law and Proposal Cost, Expenditures, and Income: As Percent of Gross Domestic Product

July 31, 2014

Social Security Administration

Present Law OASDI Proposal OASDI

Calendar

Year

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2013 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security 2100 Act, introduced by Representative Larson 
Expected yield assumption

Year Without Equity With Equity

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) = cumulative sum(4) (6) = (1)+(5) (7)

2013 2,659.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,659.4 2,659.4

2014 2,588.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,588.7 2,588.7

2015 2,522.2 37.2 13.4 23.8 23.8 2,546.0 2,546.0

2016 2,458.5 44.7 16.0 28.7 52.5 2,511.0 2,511.0

2017 2,396.2 49.4 18.6 30.8 83.3 2,479.5 2,479.6

2018 2,332.2 60.0 21.4 38.6 121.9 2,454.1 2,454.4

2019 2,259.1 70.1 24.3 45.8 167.7 2,426.8 2,427.3

2020 2,173.1 79.7 27.2 52.5 220.2 2,393.3 2,394.4

2021 2,075.6 89.4 30.0 59.4 279.5 2,355.2 2,357.1

2022 1,962.3 98.8 32.8 66.0 345.6 2,307.8 2,311.3

2023 1,832.1 108.6 35.4 73.2 418.8 2,250.9 2,256.5

2024 1,686.0 118.0 37.9 80.2 499.0 2,184.9 2,193.7

2025 1,524.9 127.1 40.1 87.0 586.0 2,110.9 2,123.8

2026 1,350.7 135.9 42.2 93.7 679.7 2,030.3 2,048.4

2027 1,164.9 144.3 44.1 100.2 779.9 1,944.7 1,969.1

2028 968.9 152.3 45.7 106.6 886.4 1,855.3 1,886.8

2029 764.1 160.2 47.2 113.0 999.4 1,763.5 1,803.1

2030 552.1 168.1 48.6 119.5 1,119.0 1,671.0 1,719.5

2031 334.7 175.9 49.8 126.1 1,245.1 1,579.8 1,637.7

2032 113.3 183.6 50.9 132.8 1,377.8 1,491.1 1,558.9

2033 -111.2 191.4 51.8 139.5 1,517.3 1,406.2 1,484.1

2034 -337.1 199.1 52.7 146.5 1,663.8 1,326.7 1,414.6

2035 -562.9 206.9 53.3 153.6 1,817.4 1,254.4 1,352.0

2036 -787.5 214.7 53.9 160.8 1,978.2 1,190.7 1,297.3

2037 -1,010.1 222.5 54.3 168.2 2,146.4 1,136.3 1,251.0

2038 -1,229.7 224.5 54.6 169.9 2,316.3 1,086.6 1,209.1

2039 -1,445.4 226.3 54.7 171.6 2,487.9 1,042.5 1,172.2

2040 -1,656.9 228.2 54.8 173.4 2,661.4 1,004.4 1,140.7

2041 -1,864.1 230.3 54.8 175.5 2,836.9 972.8 1,114.7

2042 -2,067.0 232.4 54.7 177.8 3,014.7 947.6 1,094.3

2043 -2,265.9 234.7 54.5 180.2 3,194.9 929.0 1,079.2

2044 -2,461.4 237.0 54.2 182.8 3,377.7 916.4 1,069.2

2045 -2,653.6 238.1 53.9 184.2 3,561.9 908.3 1,062.9

2046 -2,843.0 235.8 53.6 182.2 3,744.1 901.2 1,057.4

2047 -3,029.4 233.3 53.2 180.1 3,924.2 894.8 1,052.6

2048 -3,212.7 230.8 52.8 178.0 4,102.2 889.5 1,048.5

2049 -3,393.3 228.2 52.3 175.9 4,278.1 884.8 1,045.0

2050 -3,571.6 225.6 51.9 173.8 4,451.9 880.3 1,041.7

2051 -3,747.8 223.1 51.4 171.7 4,623.6 875.8 1,038.4

2052 -3,922.5 220.5 50.9 169.6 4,793.2 870.7 1,034.7

2053 -4,096.0 217.9 50.4 167.5 4,960.6 864.6 1,030.3

2054 -4,268.7 215.2 49.9 165.3 5,126.0 857.3 1,024.9

2055 -4,440.8 212.6 49.4 163.2 5,289.2 848.4 1,018.5

2056 -4,612.6 210.0 48.9 161.1 5,450.3 837.7 1,010.9

2057 -4,784.0 207.4 48.4 159.0 5,609.3 825.3 1,002.0

2058 -4,955.1 204.9 47.9 156.9 5,766.3 811.2 992.0

2059 -5,125.7 202.3 47.4 154.9 5,921.2 795.5 981.0

2060 -5,295.8 199.8 46.9 152.9 6,074.0 778.2 969.0

2061 -5,465.5 197.3 46.5 150.9 6,224.9 759.5 956.0

2062 -5,634.5 194.9 46.0 148.9 6,373.9 739.4 942.2

2063 -5,802.9 192.5 45.5 147.0 6,520.8 717.9 927.6

2064 -5,970.8 190.1 45.0 145.1 6,665.9 695.2 912.2

2065 -6,138.0 187.7 44.6 143.1 6,809.1 671.0 896.1

2066 -6,304.8 185.4 44.1 141.3 6,950.3 645.5 879.1

2067 -6,471.1 183.1 43.7 139.4 7,089.7 618.7 861.4

2068 -6,636.8 180.8 43.2 137.6 7,227.4 590.6 843.1

2069 -6,802.0 178.6 42.8 135.8 7,363.2 561.2 824.0

2070 -6,966.6 176.4 42.3 134.1 7,497.2 530.7 804.4

2071 -7,130.5 174.3 41.9 132.4 7,629.6 499.1 784.3

2072 -7,293.3 172.1 41.4 130.7 7,760.3 467.0 763.9

2073 -7,454.9 170.0 41.0 129.0 7,889.3 434.4 743.5

2074 -7,615.2 168.0 40.5 127.4 8,016.7 401.5 723.0

2075 -7,774.0 165.9 40.1 125.8 8,142.5 368.6 702.7

2076 -7,931.0 163.9 39.6 124.3 8,266.8 335.8 682.7

2077 -8,086.1 161.9 39.1 122.7 8,389.5 303.4 663.0

2078 -8,239.4 159.9 38.7 121.2 8,510.7 271.3 643.7

2079 -8,390.9 157.9 38.2 119.7 8,630.4 239.4 624.8

2080 -8,540.9 156.0 37.8 118.2 8,748.6 207.7 606.0

2081 -8,689.4 154.0 37.3 116.7 8,865.3 175.9 587.4

2082 -8,836.7 152.1 36.9 115.2 8,980.5 143.8 568.7

2083 -8,983.1 150.2 36.5 113.7 9,094.3 111.2 549.9

2084 -9,128.6 148.3 36.1 112.3 9,206.5 77.9 530.8

2085 -9,273.6 146.5 35.7 110.8 9,317.3 43.7 511.5

2086 -9,418.0 144.6 35.3 109.3 9,426.6 8.7 491.7

2087 -9,561.9 142.8 34.9 107.8 9,534.5 -27.4 471.6

Total 2013-2087 12,712.1 3,177.6 9,534.5

Note: Discount rates used are the present law Treasury bond yield except for column (7), where proposal discount rate is used, Office of the Chief Actuary

 reflecting equity returns at expected yield. Social Security Administration

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2013 Trustees Report. July 31, 2014

Table 1d - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Reserves / Unfunded Obligation

Proposal OASDI Trust Fund 

Reserves/Unfunded Obligation 

Through End of Year

(Billions of Dollars, Present Value on 1-1-2013)

Present Law OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Total Change

Through

End of Year

Social Security 2100 Act, introduced by Representative Larson 
Low yield assumption

Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2013 13.95 12.69 -1.26 330 0.00 0.00 0.00

2014 14.04 12.83 -1.20 315 0.00 0.00 0.00

2015 14.19 13.48 -0.71 296 0.22 0.62 0.39

2016 14.17 13.60 -0.57 283 0.26 0.72 0.46

2017 14.17 13.67 -0.50 271 0.29 0.77 0.48

2018 14.24 13.84 -0.39 260 0.33 0.91 0.59

2019 14.42 14.00 -0.42 251 0.36 1.05 0.69

2020 14.66 14.15 -0.51 241 0.40 1.18 0.78

2021 14.89 14.31 -0.57 233 0.44 1.32 0.88

2022 15.19 14.48 -0.71 224 0.48 1.45 0.97

2023 15.49 14.64 -0.85 215 0.52 1.60 1.08

2024 15.79 14.80 -0.99 206 0.56 1.74 1.18

2025 16.07 14.96 -1.11 197 0.60 1.89 1.29

2026 16.34 15.12 -1.22 189 0.63 2.03 1.40

2027 16.60 15.28 -1.31 181 0.67 2.18 1.52

2028 16.84 15.45 -1.39 173 0.70 2.34 1.63

2029 17.06 15.61 -1.45 165 0.73 2.49 1.76

2030 17.26 15.78 -1.48 157 0.77 2.65 1.88

2031 17.43 15.95 -1.48 150 0.80 2.81 2.01

2032 17.58 16.12 -1.45 142 0.82 2.97 2.15

2033 17.71 16.29 -1.41 135 0.85 3.14 2.29

2034 17.81 16.47 -1.34 128 0.88 3.31 2.43

2035 17.88 16.64 -1.23 122 0.90 3.48 2.58

2036 17.93 16.82 -1.11 116 0.92 3.65 2.74

2037 17.96 17.00 -0.96 112 0.94 3.83 2.90

2038 17.97 17.08 -0.89 108 0.95 3.91 2.96

2039 17.96 17.16 -0.80 104 0.97 3.99 3.02

2040 17.94 17.24 -0.70 101 0.98 4.07 3.09

2041 17.92 17.33 -0.59 99 0.99 4.15 3.17

2042 17.89 17.41 -0.48 97 1.00 4.24 3.24

2043 17.87 17.50 -0.37 96 1.01 4.34 3.33

2044 17.86 17.60 -0.26 95 1.01 4.43 3.42

2045 17.85 17.68 -0.17 95 1.02 4.51 3.49

2046 17.85 17.69 -0.16 96 1.03 4.52 3.49

2047 17.84 17.70 -0.14 96 1.03 4.53 3.49

2048 17.83 17.70 -0.13 97 1.04 4.53 3.50

2049 17.83 17.71 -0.12 97 1.04 4.54 3.50

2050 17.83 17.72 -0.11 98 1.05 4.55 3.50

2051 17.84 17.73 -0.11 99 1.05 4.56 3.51

2052 17.86 17.74 -0.13 99 1.05 4.56 3.51

2053 17.89 17.74 -0.15 100 1.06 4.57 3.51

2054 17.93 17.75 -0.18 100 1.06 4.58 3.51

2055 17.98 17.76 -0.21 101 1.07 4.58 3.52

2056 18.03 17.77 -0.26 101 1.07 4.59 3.52

2057 18.08 17.78 -0.30 101 1.07 4.59 3.52

2058 18.13 17.79 -0.34 100 1.08 4.60 3.52

2059 18.18 17.80 -0.38 100 1.08 4.60 3.52

2060 18.22 17.80 -0.42 99 1.08 4.61 3.52

2061 18.27 17.81 -0.46 98 1.09 4.61 3.53

2062 18.32 17.82 -0.50 96 1.09 4.62 3.53

2063 18.36 17.83 -0.54 95 1.09 4.62 3.53

2064 18.41 17.83 -0.58 93 1.10 4.63 3.53

2065 18.46 17.84 -0.62 91 1.10 4.63 3.53

2066 18.51 17.85 -0.66 89 1.10 4.64 3.53

2067 18.56 17.85 -0.70 87 1.11 4.64 3.53

2068 18.61 17.86 -0.75 84 1.11 4.64 3.53

2069 18.65 17.87 -0.79 81 1.11 4.65 3.53

2070 18.70 17.87 -0.83 78 1.12 4.65 3.53

2071 18.74 17.88 -0.87 74 1.12 4.66 3.53

2072 18.78 17.88 -0.89 71 1.12 4.66 3.54

2073 18.81 17.89 -0.92 67 1.13 4.66 3.54

2074 18.83 17.90 -0.94 63 1.13 4.67 3.54

2075 18.85 17.90 -0.95 59 1.13 4.67 3.54

2076 18.86 17.90 -0.96 55 1.13 4.67 3.54

2077 18.87 17.91 -0.96 51 1.13 4.68 3.54

2078 18.87 17.91 -0.96 47 1.13 4.68 3.55

2079 18.88 17.91 -0.97 42 1.13 4.68 3.55

2080 18.90 17.92 -0.98 38 1.14 4.69 3.55

2081 18.91 17.92 -0.99 34 1.14 4.69 3.55

2082 18.94 17.93 -1.01 29 1.14 4.69 3.55

2083 18.97 17.93 -1.04 24 1.14 4.69 3.55

2084 19.01 17.94 -1.08 19 1.14 4.70 3.55

2085 19.06 17.94 -1.12 14 1.15 4.70 3.55

2086 19.11 17.95 -1.17 8 1.15 4.70 3.55

2087 19.17 17.95 -1.21 2 1.15 4.71 3.55

2088 19.22 17.96 -1.26 ---- 1.16 4.71 3.55

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

17.46% 17.29% -0.17% 2087 0.86% 3.42% 2.55%

1 Under present law the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2033

Year of reserve 

depletion1

Summarized Rates: OASDI

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2013 Trustees Report

July 31, 2014

Summarized Rates: OASDI

2013 - 2087

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll

Change from Present Law

Table 2 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio 

Proposal

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll

Social Security 2100 Act, introduced by Representative Larson 
Present Value in Billions as of 1-1-2013

Annual General Fund 

Transfers

Proposal Total OASDI 

Trust Fund

Reserves at End of 

Year

Gross 

Domestic 

Product

OASDI Trust Fund 

Reserves (Unfunded 

Obligation) Without 

General Fund Transfers

OASDI Trust Fund 

Reserves (Unfunded 

Obligation) With General 

Fund Transfers

Gross 

Domestic 

Product

PV using present law yield PV using proposal yield PV using present law yield

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

2013 0.0 2,659.4 16,046.1 2,659.4 2,659.4 16,046.1

2014 0.0 2,588.7 16,275.4 2,588.7 2,588.7 16,275.4

2015 0.0 2,546.0 16,669.9 2,522.2 2,522.2 16,669.9

2016 0.0 2,511.0 17,071.8 2,458.5 2,458.5 17,071.8

2017 0.0 2,479.5 17,420.5 2,396.2 2,396.2 17,420.5

2018 0.0 2,454.1 17,701.8 2,332.2 2,332.2 17,701.8

2019 0.0 2,426.8 17,889.6 2,259.1 2,259.1 17,889.6

2020 0.0 2,393.3 18,015.1 2,173.1 2,173.1 18,015.1

2021 0.0 2,355.2 18,108.0 2,075.6 2,075.6 18,108.0

2022 0.0 2,307.8 18,173.3 1,962.3 1,962.3 18,173.3

2023 0.0 2,250.9 18,206.5 1,832.1 1,832.1 18,206.5

2024 0.0 2,184.9 18,192.0 1,686.0 1,686.0 18,192.0

2025 0.0 2,110.9 18,121.5 1,524.9 1,524.9 18,121.5

2026 0.0 2,030.3 17,997.1 1,350.7 1,350.7 17,997.1

2027 0.0 1,944.7 17,816.9 1,164.9 1,164.9 17,816.9

2028 0.0 1,855.3 17,606.2 968.9 968.9 17,606.2

2029 0.0 1,763.5 17,392.3 764.1 764.1 17,392.3

2030 0.0 1,671.0 17,180.2 552.1 552.1 17,180.2

2031 0.0 1,579.8 16,973.8 334.7 334.7 16,973.8

2032 0.0 1,491.1 16,770.7 113.3 113.3 16,770.7

2033 0.0 1,406.2 16,571.4 -111.2 -111.2 16,571.4

2034 0.0 1,326.7 16,381.7 -337.1 -337.1 16,381.7

2035 0.0 1,254.4 16,199.7 -562.9 -562.9 16,199.7

2036 0.0 1,190.7 16,022.7 -787.5 -787.5 16,022.7

2037 0.0 1,136.3 15,848.7 -1,010.1 -1,010.1 15,848.7

2038 0.0 1,086.6 15,678.8 -1,229.7 -1,229.7 15,678.8

2039 0.0 1,042.5 15,515.9 -1,445.4 -1,445.4 15,515.9

2040 0.0 1,004.4 15,351.7 -1,656.9 -1,656.9 15,351.7

2041 0.0 972.8 15,190.2 -1,864.1 -1,864.1 15,190.2

2042 0.0 947.6 15,029.9 -2,067.0 -2,067.0 15,029.9

2043 0.0 929.0 14,870.1 -2,265.9 -2,265.9 14,870.1

2044 0.0 916.4 14,710.0 -2,461.4 -2,461.4 14,710.0

2045 0.0 908.3 14,551.1 -2,653.6 -2,653.6 14,551.1

2046 0.0 901.2 14,392.9 -2,843.0 -2,843.0 14,392.9

2047 0.0 894.8 14,234.3 -3,029.4 -3,029.4 14,234.3

2048 0.0 889.5 14,075.0 -3,212.7 -3,212.7 14,075.0

2049 0.0 884.8 13,914.0 -3,393.3 -3,393.3 13,914.0

2050 0.0 880.3 13,753.5 -3,571.6 -3,571.6 13,753.5

2051 0.0 875.8 13,593.1 -3,747.8 -3,747.8 13,593.1

2052 0.0 870.7 13,432.0 -3,922.5 -3,922.5 13,432.0

2053 0.0 864.6 13,271.4 -4,096.0 -4,096.0 13,271.4

2054 0.0 857.3 13,112.1 -4,268.7 -4,268.7 13,112.1

2055 0.0 848.4 12,953.8 -4,440.8 -4,440.8 12,953.8

2056 0.0 837.7 12,796.8 -4,612.6 -4,612.6 12,796.8

2057 0.0 825.3 12,641.6 -4,784.0 -4,784.0 12,641.6

2058 0.0 811.2 12,487.9 -4,955.1 -4,955.1 12,487.9

2059 0.0 795.5 12,336.1 -5,125.7 -5,125.7 12,336.1

2060 0.0 778.2 12,186.2 -5,295.8 -5,295.8 12,186.2

2061 0.0 759.5 12,038.8 -5,465.5 -5,465.5 12,038.8

2062 0.0 739.4 11,894.1 -5,634.5 -5,634.5 11,894.1

2063 0.0 717.9 11,751.2 -5,802.9 -5,802.9 11,751.2

2064 0.0 695.2 11,610.4 -5,970.8 -5,970.8 11,610.4

2065 0.0 671.0 11,471.5 -6,138.0 -6,138.0 11,471.5

2066 0.0 645.5 11,334.7 -6,304.8 -6,304.8 11,334.7

2067 0.0 618.7 11,200.2 -6,471.1 -6,471.1 11,200.2

2068 0.0 590.6 11,067.7 -6,636.8 -6,636.8 11,067.7

2069 0.0 561.2 10,937.2 -6,802.0 -6,802.0 10,937.2

2070 0.0 530.7 10,808.6 -6,966.6 -6,966.6 10,808.6

2071 0.0 499.1 10,681.8 -7,130.5 -7,130.5 10,681.8

2072 0.0 467.0 10,556.8 -7,293.3 -7,293.3 10,556.8

2073 0.0 434.4 10,433.3 -7,454.9 -7,454.9 10,433.3

2074 0.0 401.5 10,311.0 -7,615.2 -7,615.2 10,311.0

2075 0.0 368.6 10,190.2 -7,774.0 -7,774.0 10,190.2

2076 0.0 335.8 10,070.3 -7,931.0 -7,931.0 10,070.3

2077 0.0 303.4 9,951.4 -8,086.1 -8,086.1 9,951.4

2078 0.0 271.3 9,833.1 -8,239.4 -8,239.4 9,833.1

2079 0.0 239.4 9,715.8 -8,390.9 -8,390.9 9,715.8

2080 0.0 207.7 9,599.4 -8,540.9 -8,540.9 9,599.4

2081 0.0 175.9 9,484.1 -8,689.4 -8,689.4 9,484.1

2082 0.0 143.8 9,369.5 -8,836.7 -8,836.7 9,369.5

2083 0.0 111.2 9,255.6 -8,983.1 -8,983.1 9,255.6

2084 0.0 77.9 9,142.2 -9,128.6 -9,128.6 9,142.2

2085 0.0 43.7 9,029.5 -9,273.6 -9,273.6 9,029.5

2086 0.0 8.7 8,917.7 -9,418.0 -9,418.0 8,917.7

2087 0.0 -27.4 8,806.6 -9,561.9 -9,561.9 8,806.6

2088 0.0 -64.5 8,696.5 -9,705.4 -9,705.4 8,696.5

Total 2013-2087 0.0

Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2013 Trustees Report

Note: Columns 1, 4-6 show present values discount at current-law Treasury bond yield; the ultimate annual real trust fund yield equals 2.9%.

 Columns 2-3 show present values discounted at proposal yield, including equity investments; the ultimate annual real trust fund yield equals 2.9%. Office of the Chief Actuary

1 Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption that Social Security Administration

Theoretical Social Security 1

with Borrowing Authority

 the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury.

Calendar

Year

July 31, 2014

Table 2a - General Fund Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Reserves, and Theoretical OASDI Reserves

Low yield assumption

Social Security 2100 Act, introduced by Representative Larson 
Year

Net Purchase 

or Sale 

(negative) of 

Equities

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End Of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

 (1) (2) (3) = (2) - (1) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2013 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2015 0.0 23.8 23.8 -23.8 23.8 0.0 0.0

2016 62.8 28.7 -34.1 10.3 -33.2 0.0 0.0

2017 61.2 30.8 -30.4 40.7 -30.8 0.0 0.0

2018 60.1 38.6 -21.5 62.2 -23.0 0.0 0.0

2019 58.6 45.8 -12.8 75.0 -15.2 0.0 0.0

2020 56.5 52.5 -4.0 79.1 -7.0 0.0 0.0

2021 54.2 59.4 5.2 73.8 2.1 0.0 0.0

2022 50.7 66.0 15.4 58.5 12.4 0.0 0.0

2023 46.4 73.2 26.8 31.7 24.3 0.0 0.0

2024 41.5 80.2 38.6 -7.0 37.2 0.0 0.0

2025 36.2 87.0 50.8 -57.7 51.1 0.0 0.0

2026 -20.1 93.7 113.8 -171.5 116.8 0.0 0.0

2027 -21.4 100.2 121.6 -293.1 131.0 0.0 0.0

2028 -22.4 106.6 128.9 -422.1 144.9 0.0 0.0

2029 -22.9 113.0 136.0 -558.0 159.0 0.0 0.0

2030 -23.1 119.5 142.7 -700.7 173.2 0.0 0.0

2031 -22.8 126.1 148.9 -849.6 187.2 0.0 0.0

2032 -22.2 132.8 154.9 -1,004.5 201.3 0.0 0.0

2033 -21.2 139.5 160.8 -1,165.2 215.7 0.0 0.0

2034 -19.9 146.5 166.3 -1,331.6 230.0 0.0 0.0

2035 -18.1 153.6 171.6 -1,503.2 244.4 0.0 0.0

2036 -15.9 160.8 176.8 -1,680.0 258.9 0.0 0.0

2037 -13.6 168.2 181.8 -1,861.8 273.6 0.0 0.0

2038 -12.4 169.9 182.3 -2,044.1 284.1 0.0 0.0

2039 -11.0 171.6 182.6 -2,226.7 294.3 0.0 0.0

2040 -9.5 173.4 183.0 -2,409.7 304.7 0.0 0.0

2041 -7.9 175.5 183.5 -2,593.2 315.2 0.0 0.0

2042 -6.3 177.8 184.1 -2,777.2 325.8 0.0 0.0

2043 -4.7 180.2 184.9 -2,962.1 336.7 0.0 0.0

2044 -3.1 182.8 186.0 -3,148.1 347.9 0.0 0.0

2045 -2.0 184.2 186.2 -3,334.3 358.3 0.0 0.0

2046 -1.8 182.2 184.0 -3,518.3 366.2 0.0 0.0

2047 -1.6 180.1 181.7 -3,700.0 374.0 0.0 0.0

2048 -1.3 178.0 179.3 -3,879.3 381.5 0.0 0.0

2049 -1.2 175.9 177.1 -4,056.4 389.1 0.0 0.0

2050 -1.1 173.8 174.9 -4,231.3 396.6 0.0 0.0

2051 -1.1 171.7 172.8 -4,404.1 404.1 0.0 0.0

2052 -1.3 169.6 170.9 -4,575.0 411.6 0.0 0.0

2053 -1.5 167.5 169.0 -4,744.0 419.0 0.0 0.0

2054 -1.8 165.3 167.2 -4,911.1 426.4 0.0 0.0

2055 -2.2 163.2 165.5 -5,076.6 433.9 0.0 0.0

2056 -2.7 161.1 163.8 -5,240.3 441.2 0.0 0.0

2057 -3.1 159.0 162.1 -5,402.5 448.5 0.0 0.0

2058 -3.5 156.9 160.5 -5,562.9 455.7 0.0 0.0

2059 -3.9 154.9 158.8 -5,721.8 462.9 0.0 0.0

2060 -4.3 152.9 157.2 -5,879.0 469.9 0.0 0.0

2061 -4.7 150.9 155.6 -6,034.5 476.9 0.0 0.0

2062 -5.0 148.9 154.0 -6,188.5 483.8 0.0 0.0

2063 -5.4 147.0 152.3 -6,340.8 490.6 0.0 0.0

2064 -5.7 145.1 150.8 -6,491.6 497.3 0.0 0.0

2065 -6.0 143.1 149.2 -6,640.8 504.0 0.0 0.0

2066 -6.4 141.3 147.6 -6,788.4 510.6 0.0 0.0

2067 -6.7 139.4 146.1 -6,934.5 517.1 0.0 0.0

2068 -7.0 137.6 144.6 -7,079.2 523.6 0.0 0.0

2069 -7.3 135.8 143.2 -7,222.3 530.1 0.0 0.0

2070 -7.6 134.1 141.7 -7,364.0 536.4 0.0 0.0

2071 -7.9 132.4 140.2 -7,504.3 542.7 0.0 0.0

2072 -8.0 130.7 138.7 -7,643.0 548.8 0.0 0.0

2073 -8.2 129.0 137.2 -7,780.2 554.9 0.0 0.0

2074 -8.2 127.4 135.6 -7,915.8 560.8 0.0 0.0

2075 -8.2 125.8 134.0 -8,049.9 566.7 0.0 0.0

2076 -8.2 124.3 132.4 -8,182.3 572.4 0.0 0.0

2077 -8.1 122.7 130.8 -8,313.1 578.0 0.0 0.0

2078 -8.0 121.2 129.2 -8,442.3 583.6 0.0 0.0

2079 -8.0 119.7 127.6 -8,570.0 589.0 0.0 0.0

2080 -7.9 118.2 126.1 -8,696.1 594.5 0.0 0.0

2081 -7.9 116.7 124.7 -8,820.8 599.9 0.0 0.0

2082 -8.0 115.2 123.3 -8,944.0 605.3 0.0 0.0

2083 -8.2 113.7 121.9 -9,065.9 610.7 0.0 0.0

2084 -8.3 112.3 120.6 -9,186.5 616.1 0.0 0.0

2085 -8.5 110.8 119.3 -9,305.8 621.4 0.0 0.0

2086 -8.8 109.3 118.1 -9,423.9 626.7 0.0 0.0

2087 -9.0 107.8 116.9 -9,540.8 631.9 0.0 0.0

-6.3 9,534.5 9,540.8

Note: All present values are discounted at the current-law Treasury bond yield; the ultimate annual real trust fund yield equals 2.9%. Office of the Chief Actuary

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2013 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration

July 31, 2014

Total 2013-87

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2013

Table 2b - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI (Present Value Dollars)

Social Security 2100 Act, introduced by Representative Larson 

Low yield assumption
Year

Net Purchase or 

Sale (negative) 

of Equities

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

 (1) (2) (3) = (2) - (1) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2013 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2015 0.0 26.1 26.1 -26.5 26.5 0.0 0.0

2016 71.1 32.6 -38.6 11.8 -38.3 0.0 0.0

2017 71.9 36.2 -35.7 48.6 -36.8 0.0 0.0

2018 73.3 47.1 -26.1 77.1 -28.5 0.0 0.0

2019 74.3 58.0 -16.3 96.8 -19.7 0.0 0.0

2020 74.5 69.2 -5.3 106.2 -9.4 0.0 0.0

2021 74.3 81.5 7.2 103.3 2.9 0.0 0.0

2022 72.5 94.4 22.0 85.2 18.0 0.0 0.0

2023 69.3 109.3 40.0 48.2 37.0 0.0 0.0

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2013 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

July 31, 2014

Billions of Nominal Dollars

Table 2b.n - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI (Nominal Dollars)

Low yield assumption

Social Security 2100 Act, introduced by Representative Larson 
Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income

 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 

2013 5.06 5.06 4.60 5.06 5.06 4.60

2014 5.09 5.09 4.65 5.09 5.09 4.65

2015 5.07 5.07 4.67 5.15 5.15 4.90

2016 5.08 5.08 4.71 5.18 5.18 4.97

2017 5.11 5.11 4.75 5.22 5.22 5.04

2018 5.16 5.16 4.80 5.28 5.28 5.13

2019 5.23 5.23 4.82 5.37 5.37 5.21

2020 5.32 5.32 4.84 5.47 5.47 5.28

2021 5.40 5.40 4.86 5.57 5.57 5.35

2022 5.50 5.50 4.87 5.68 5.68 5.41

2023 5.58 5.58 4.87 5.78 5.78 5.46

2024 5.67 5.67 4.86 5.88 5.88 5.51

2025 5.75 5.75 4.86 5.97 5.97 5.56

2026 5.83 5.83 4.85 6.06 6.06 5.61

2027 5.90 5.90 4.85 6.15 6.15 5.66

2028 5.97 5.97 4.85 6.23 6.23 5.71

2029 6.03 6.03 4.85 6.30 6.30 5.77

2030 6.08 6.08 4.84 6.37 6.37 5.82

2031 6.13 6.13 4.84 6.42 6.42 5.88

2032 6.16 6.16 4.84 6.47 6.47 5.93

2033 6.20 5.50 4.84 6.51 6.51 5.99

2034 6.22 4.83 4.83 6.54 6.54 6.05

2035 6.23 4.83 4.83 6.56 6.56 6.10

2036 6.23 4.82 4.82 6.57 6.57 6.16

2037 6.23 4.82 4.82 6.57 6.57 6.22

2038 6.22 4.82 4.82 6.57 6.57 6.25

2039 6.21 4.81 4.81 6.56 6.56 6.27

2040 6.19 4.81 4.81 6.55 6.55 6.29

2041 6.17 4.80 4.80 6.53 6.53 6.31

2042 6.15 4.79 4.79 6.51 6.51 6.34

2043 6.13 4.79 4.79 6.50 6.50 6.37

2044 6.12 4.78 4.78 6.49 6.49 6.39

2045 6.10 4.78 4.78 6.47 6.47 6.41

2046 6.09 4.77 4.77 6.46 6.46 6.41

2047 6.08 4.76 4.76 6.45 6.45 6.40

2048 6.07 4.76 4.76 6.44 6.44 6.39

2049 6.05 4.75 4.75 6.43 6.43 6.39

2050 6.05 4.74 4.74 6.42 6.42 6.38

2051 6.04 4.74 4.74 6.42 6.42 6.38

2052 6.04 4.73 4.73 6.42 6.42 6.37

2053 6.04 4.73 4.73 6.42 6.42 6.37

2054 6.04 4.72 4.72 6.42 6.42 6.36

2055 6.05 4.72 4.72 6.43 6.43 6.36

2056 6.06 4.71 4.71 6.44 6.44 6.35

2057 6.07 4.70 4.70 6.45 6.45 6.34

2058 6.07 4.70 4.70 6.46 6.46 6.34

2059 6.08 4.69 4.69 6.47 6.47 6.33

2060 6.09 4.69 4.69 6.48 6.48 6.33

2061 6.10 4.68 4.68 6.48 6.48 6.32

2062 6.10 4.68 4.68 6.49 6.49 6.31

2063 6.11 4.67 4.67 6.50 6.50 6.31

2064 6.12 4.67 4.67 6.51 6.51 6.30

2065 6.12 4.66 4.66 6.51 6.51 6.29

2066 6.13 4.65 4.65 6.52 6.52 6.29

2067 6.14 4.65 4.65 6.53 6.53 6.28

2068 6.15 4.64 4.64 6.54 6.54 6.27

2069 6.15 4.64 4.64 6.54 6.54 6.27

2070 6.16 4.63 4.63 6.55 6.55 6.26

2071 6.17 4.63 4.63 6.56 6.56 6.26

2072 6.17 4.62 4.62 6.56 6.56 6.25

2073 6.17 4.62 4.62 6.56 6.56 6.24

2074 6.17 4.61 4.61 6.56 6.56 6.24

2075 6.17 4.61 4.61 6.56 6.56 6.23

2076 6.17 4.60 4.60 6.56 6.56 6.23

2077 6.16 4.60 4.60 6.55 6.55 6.22

2078 6.16 4.59 4.59 6.55 6.55 6.21

2079 6.15 4.59 4.59 6.54 6.54 6.21

2080 6.15 4.58 4.58 6.54 6.54 6.20

2081 6.15 4.58 4.58 6.54 6.54 6.20

2082 6.15 4.57 4.57 6.54 6.54 6.19

2083 6.16 4.57 4.57 6.55 6.55 6.19

2084 6.16 4.57 4.57 6.56 6.56 6.19

2085 6.17 4.56 4.56 6.57 6.57 6.18

2086 6.18 4.56 4.56 6.58 6.58 6.18

2087 6.20 4.56 4.56 6.59 6.34 6.18

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2013 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security 2100 Act, introduced by Representative Larson 

Low yield assumption

Table 2c - Present Law and Proposal Cost, Expenditures, and Income: As Percent of Gross Domestic Product

July 31, 2014

Social Security Administration

Present Law OASDI Proposal OASDI

Calendar

Year
Year Without Equity With Equity

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) = cumulative sum(4) (6) = (1)+(5) (7)

2013 2,659.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,659.4 2,659.4

2014 2,588.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,588.7 2,588.7

2015 2,522.2 37.2 13.4 23.8 23.8 2,546.0 2,546.0

2016 2,458.5 44.7 16.0 28.7 52.5 2,511.0 2,511.0

2017 2,396.2 49.4 18.6 30.8 83.3 2,479.5 2,479.5

2018 2,332.2 60.0 21.4 38.6 121.9 2,454.1 2,454.1

2019 2,259.1 70.1 24.3 45.8 167.7 2,426.8 2,426.8

2020 2,173.1 79.7 27.2 52.5 220.2 2,393.3 2,393.3

2021 2,075.6 89.4 30.0 59.4 279.5 2,355.2 2,355.2

2022 1,962.3 98.8 32.8 66.0 345.6 2,307.8 2,307.8

2023 1,832.1 108.6 35.4 73.2 418.8 2,250.9 2,250.9

2024 1,686.0 118.0 37.9 80.2 499.0 2,184.9 2,184.9

2025 1,524.9 127.1 40.1 87.0 586.0 2,110.9 2,110.9

2026 1,350.7 135.9 42.2 93.7 679.7 2,030.3 2,030.3

2027 1,164.9 144.3 44.1 100.2 779.9 1,944.7 1,944.7

2028 968.9 152.3 45.7 106.6 886.4 1,855.3 1,855.3

2029 764.1 160.2 47.2 113.0 999.4 1,763.5 1,763.5

2030 552.1 168.1 48.6 119.5 1,119.0 1,671.0 1,671.0

2031 334.7 175.9 49.8 126.1 1,245.1 1,579.8 1,579.8

2032 113.3 183.6 50.9 132.8 1,377.8 1,491.1 1,491.1

2033 -111.2 191.4 51.8 139.5 1,517.3 1,406.2 1,406.2

2034 -337.1 199.1 52.7 146.5 1,663.8 1,326.7 1,326.7

2035 -562.9 206.9 53.3 153.6 1,817.4 1,254.4 1,254.4

2036 -787.5 214.7 53.9 160.8 1,978.2 1,190.7 1,190.7

2037 -1,010.1 222.5 54.3 168.2 2,146.4 1,136.3 1,136.3

2038 -1,229.7 224.5 54.6 169.9 2,316.3 1,086.6 1,086.6

2039 -1,445.4 226.3 54.7 171.6 2,487.9 1,042.5 1,042.5

2040 -1,656.9 228.2 54.8 173.4 2,661.4 1,004.4 1,004.4

2041 -1,864.1 230.3 54.8 175.5 2,836.9 972.8 972.8

2042 -2,067.0 232.4 54.7 177.8 3,014.7 947.6 947.6

2043 -2,265.9 234.7 54.5 180.2 3,194.9 929.0 929.0

2044 -2,461.4 237.0 54.2 182.8 3,377.7 916.4 916.4

2045 -2,653.6 238.1 53.9 184.2 3,561.9 908.3 908.3

2046 -2,843.0 235.8 53.6 182.2 3,744.1 901.2 901.2

2047 -3,029.4 233.3 53.2 180.1 3,924.2 894.8 894.8

2048 -3,212.7 230.8 52.8 178.0 4,102.2 889.5 889.5

2049 -3,393.3 228.2 52.3 175.9 4,278.1 884.8 884.8

2050 -3,571.6 225.6 51.9 173.8 4,451.9 880.3 880.3

2051 -3,747.8 223.1 51.4 171.7 4,623.6 875.8 875.8

2052 -3,922.5 220.5 50.9 169.6 4,793.2 870.7 870.7

2053 -4,096.0 217.9 50.4 167.5 4,960.6 864.6 864.6

2054 -4,268.7 215.2 49.9 165.3 5,126.0 857.3 857.3

2055 -4,440.8 212.6 49.4 163.2 5,289.2 848.4 848.4

2056 -4,612.6 210.0 48.9 161.1 5,450.3 837.7 837.7

2057 -4,784.0 207.4 48.4 159.0 5,609.3 825.3 825.3

2058 -4,955.1 204.9 47.9 156.9 5,766.3 811.2 811.2

2059 -5,125.7 202.3 47.4 154.9 5,921.2 795.5 795.5

2060 -5,295.8 199.8 46.9 152.9 6,074.0 778.2 778.2

2061 -5,465.5 197.3 46.5 150.9 6,224.9 759.5 759.5

2062 -5,634.5 194.9 46.0 148.9 6,373.9 739.4 739.4

2063 -5,802.9 192.5 45.5 147.0 6,520.8 717.9 717.9

2064 -5,970.8 190.1 45.0 145.1 6,665.9 695.2 695.2

2065 -6,138.0 187.7 44.6 143.1 6,809.1 671.0 671.0

2066 -6,304.8 185.4 44.1 141.3 6,950.3 645.5 645.5

2067 -6,471.1 183.1 43.7 139.4 7,089.7 618.7 618.7

2068 -6,636.8 180.8 43.2 137.6 7,227.4 590.6 590.6

2069 -6,802.0 178.6 42.8 135.8 7,363.2 561.2 561.2

2070 -6,966.6 176.4 42.3 134.1 7,497.2 530.7 530.7

2071 -7,130.5 174.3 41.9 132.4 7,629.6 499.1 499.1

2072 -7,293.3 172.1 41.4 130.7 7,760.3 467.0 467.0

2073 -7,454.9 170.0 41.0 129.0 7,889.3 434.4 434.4

2074 -7,615.2 168.0 40.5 127.4 8,016.7 401.5 401.5

2075 -7,774.0 165.9 40.1 125.8 8,142.5 368.6 368.6

2076 -7,931.0 163.9 39.6 124.3 8,266.8 335.8 335.8

2077 -8,086.1 161.9 39.1 122.7 8,389.5 303.4 303.4

2078 -8,239.4 159.9 38.7 121.2 8,510.7 271.3 271.3

2079 -8,390.9 157.9 38.2 119.7 8,630.4 239.4 239.4

2080 -8,540.9 156.0 37.8 118.2 8,748.6 207.7 207.7

2081 -8,689.4 154.0 37.3 116.7 8,865.3 175.9 175.9

2082 -8,836.7 152.1 36.9 115.2 8,980.5 143.8 143.8

2083 -8,983.1 150.2 36.5 113.7 9,094.3 111.2 111.2

2084 -9,128.6 148.3 36.1 112.3 9,206.5 77.9 77.9

2085 -9,273.6 146.5 35.7 110.8 9,317.3 43.7 43.7

2086 -9,418.0 144.6 35.3 109.3 9,426.6 8.7 8.7

2087 -9,561.9 142.8 34.9 107.8 9,534.5 -27.4 -27.4

Total 2013-2087 12,712.1 3,177.6 9,534.5

Note: Discount rates used are the present law Treasury bond yield. For column (7), proposal discount rate is used, Office of the Chief Actuary

 which is the same as present law Treasury bond yield in the low-yield scenario for equity returns. Social Security Administration

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2013 Trustees Report. July 31, 2014

Social Security 2100 Act, introduced by Representative Larson 

Table 2d - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Reserves / Unfunded Obligation

Proposal OASDI Trust Fund 

Reserves/Unfunded Obligation 

Through End of Year

(Billions of Dollars, Present Value on 1-1-2013)

Present Law OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Total Change

Through

End of Year

Low yield assumption