SOCIAL SECURITY

October 27, 2015 

The Honorable John Boehner

Speaker of the House of Representatives

Washington, D.C. 20510 

Dear Speaker Boehner:

Several provisions in Title VIII of H.R. 1314, the “Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015,” introduced 

today, will have direct effects on the actuarial status of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors 

Insurance (OASI) and Federal Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Funds. Under the intermediate 

assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report, enactment of these provisions is projected to reduce the 

long-range 75-year OASDI actuarial deficit by 0.04 percent of taxable payroll, from 2.68 percent of 

taxable payroll under current law to 2.65 percent of payroll under the proposal. The projected year 

of trust fund reserve depletion for the DI Trust Fund would be extended from 2016 to 2022. For the 

OASI Trust Fund and for the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, the years of projected reserve 

depletion would remain unchanged at 2035 and 2034, respectively. Please note that these estimates 

are preliminary and are subject to change as we refine our methods and our understanding of the 

precise implementation of various provisions. 

The Bill includes a temporary reallocation of a portion of the OASDI payroll tax rate from OASI to 

DI. The point of order that the House adopted at the beginning of the 114th Congress prohibits

consideration of any legislation that reduces the actuarial balance of the OASI Trust Fund by at

least 0.01 percent of the present value of future taxable payroll (about $42 billion in net present

value) for the 75-year long-range period. However, the point of order may be waived if the

legislation improves the actuarial balance of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds for the 75-

year period. This Bill does in fact provide a significant improvement in the overall financial status

of the OASDI program.

Over the short-term period 2015 through 2025, we estimate that OASDI program cost will be 

reduced by between $5 billion and $9 billion, depending on the speed of implementation of the 

various provisions. We are assuming relatively rapid implementation consistent with the intent of 

the provisions. The attached Table 1 provides our estimates of the changes in annual OASDI cost 

and income expressed as a percentage of taxable payroll for the combined OASI and DI Trust 

Funds over the next 75 years. 

The following provisions are projected to change the cost or income of the OASDI program by at 

least the equivalent of $10 million per year once fully implemented. Many other provisions would 

have smaller effects.
Page 2 – The Honorable John Boehner

Provisions of the Bill with Significant Direct Effects on Social Security Actuarial Status

Section 811. Expansion of cooperative disability investigations (CDI) units. This section requires 

the establishment of CDI units to cover each of the 50 States, the District of Columbia, Puerto 

Rico, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, the Virgin Islands, and American Samoa by 2022. The 

additional units established under this provision would roughly double CDI capacity and will 

enhance the Social Security Administration’s (SSA) efforts to reduce fraud and overpayments.

Section 824. Use of electronic payroll data to improve program administration. Access to more 

timely data on earnings from commercial databases will allow SSA to reduce improper payments.

Section 831. Closure of unintended loopholes. This provision would eliminate (1) the ability to 

receive only a worker benefit or a spouse benefit when eligible for both, and (2) the ability of a 

family member other than a divorced spouse to receive a benefit based on the earnings of a worker 

with a suspended benefit. This provision is expected to have essentially no net cost effect through 

2025, with cost reductions increasing thereafter. This provision alone will reduce the long-range 

OASDI actuarial deficit by 0.02 percent of taxable payroll.

Section 832. Requirement for medical review. This section requires that the medical portion of the 

case review and any applicable residual functional capacity assessment for an initial disability 

determination be completed by an appropriate physician, psychiatrist, or psychologist. Based on 

program experience, this provision is projected to reduce DI program cost, and will reduce the 

long-range OASDI actuarial deficit by 0.02 percent of taxable payroll.

Section 833. Reallocation of payroll tax revenue. For earnings in calendar years 2016 through 

2018, increase from 1.80 percent to 2.37 percent the portion of the total 12.40 percent OASDI 

payroll tax that is directed to the DI Trust Fund. This reallocation of the payroll tax rates is 

projected to change the date for DI reserve depletion from the fourth quarter of 2016 to 

approximately the third quarter of 2022.

Section 834. Access to financial information for waivers and adjustments of recovery. This 

provision would provide for access to information that would allow SSA to better determine an 

individual's ability to repay any past overpayment.

We hope these estimates will be helpful. Please let us know if we may provide further assistance.

Sincerely,

 Stephen C. Goss

Chief Actuary

Enclosure 

 
Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2015 14.13 12.82 -1.31 308 0.00 0.00 0.00

2016 13.88 12.88 -1.00 298 0.00 0.00 0.00

2017 13.89 12.91 -0.98 280 0.00 0.00 0.00

2018 13.97 12.94 -1.03 264 0.00 0.00 0.00

2019 14.08 12.95 -1.13 249 -0.01 0.00 0.01

2020 14.22 12.96 -1.25 233 -0.01 0.00 0.01

2021 14.33 12.98 -1.35 219 -0.01 0.00 0.01

2022 14.51 13.01 -1.49 204 -0.01 0.00 0.01

2023 14.71 13.03 -1.68 189 -0.01 0.00 0.01

2024 14.94 13.06 -1.88 173 -0.01 0.00 0.01

2025 15.15 13.08 -2.06 158 -0.02 0.00 0.02

2026 15.34 13.10 -2.24 143 -0.02 0.00 0.02

2027 15.53 13.11 -2.42 127 -0.02 0.00 0.02

2028 15.72 13.13 -2.60 111 -0.03 0.00 0.03

2029 15.90 13.14 -2.76 95 -0.03 0.00 0.03

2030 16.07 13.15 -2.91 79 -0.03 0.00 0.03

2031 16.21 13.17 -3.05 61 -0.03 0.00 0.03

2032 16.34 13.18 -3.17 43 -0.03 0.00 0.03

2033 16.44 13.18 -3.26 25 -0.03 0.00 0.03

2034 16.52 13.19 -3.33 6 -0.04 0.00 0.03

2035 16.58 13.20 -3.39 ---- -0.04 0.00 0.03

2036 16.64 13.20 -3.44 ---- -0.04 0.00 0.04

2037 16.68 13.21 -3.47 ---- -0.04 0.00 0.04

2038 16.69 13.21 -3.48 ---- -0.04 0.00 0.04

2039 16.69 13.21 -3.48 ---- -0.04 0.00 0.04

2040 16.67 13.21 -3.46 ---- -0.04 0.00 0.04

2041 16.65 13.21 -3.43 ---- -0.04 0.00 0.04

2042 16.62 13.21 -3.41 ---- -0.04 0.00 0.04

2043 16.60 13.21 -3.38 ---- -0.04 0.00 0.04

2044 16.57 13.21 -3.36 ---- -0.04 0.00 0.04

2045 16.55 13.21 -3.34 ---- -0.04 0.00 0.04

2046 16.53 13.21 -3.32 ---- -0.04 0.00 0.04

2047 16.52 13.22 -3.30 ---- -0.04 0.00 0.04

2048 16.50 13.22 -3.29 ---- -0.04 0.00 0.04

2049 16.49 13.22 -3.28 ---- -0.04 0.00 0.04

2050 16.50 13.22 -3.28 ---- -0.04 0.00 0.04

2051 16.51 13.22 -3.29 ---- -0.04 0.00 0.04

2052 16.53 13.22 -3.31 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.04

2053 16.56 13.22 -3.33 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.04

2054 16.60 13.23 -3.37 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.04

2055 16.64 13.23 -3.41 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.04

2056 16.69 13.23 -3.46 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.04

2057 16.75 13.24 -3.51 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.04

2058 16.80 13.24 -3.56 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.04

2059 16.85 13.25 -3.61 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.04

2060 16.91 13.25 -3.66 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.04

2061 16.96 13.25 -3.70 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.05

2062 17.01 13.26 -3.75 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.05

2063 17.06 13.26 -3.80 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.05

2064 17.11 13.26 -3.85 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.05

2065 17.17 13.27 -3.90 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.05

2066 17.22 13.27 -3.95 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.05

2067 17.28 13.28 -4.01 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.05

2068 17.34 13.28 -4.06 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.05

2069 17.40 13.28 -4.11 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.05

2070 17.45 13.29 -4.17 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.05

2071 17.50 13.29 -4.21 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.05

2072 17.55 13.29 -4.25 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.05

2073 17.58 13.29 -4.29 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.05

2074 17.61 13.30 -4.32 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.05

2075 17.63 13.30 -4.34 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.05

2076 17.65 13.30 -4.35 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.05

2077 17.65 13.30 -4.35 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.05

2078 17.66 13.30 -4.35 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.05

2079 17.66 13.30 -4.36 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.05

2080 17.66 13.30 -4.36 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.05

2081 17.66 13.30 -4.36 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.05

2082 17.68 13.30 -4.37 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.05

2083 17.70 13.30 -4.39 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.05

2084 17.72 13.30 -4.42 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.05

2085 17.76 13.31 -4.45 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.05

2086 17.79 13.31 -4.49 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.05

2087 17.83 13.31 -4.52 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.05

2088 17.88 13.31 -4.56 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.05

2089 17.92 13.32 -4.60 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.05

2090 17.96 13.32 -4.64 ---- -0.05 0.00 0.05

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

16.51% 13.86% -2.65% 2034 -0.04% 0.00% 0.04%

1 Under present law the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034

October 27, 2015

Summarized Rates: OASDI

Year of reserve 

depletion1

Summarized Rates: OASDI

2015 - 2089

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

Proposal Change from Present Law

Preliminary Estimated Effects of Enactment of Title VIII-Social Security of the “Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015" (H.R. 1314)

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll