Social Security

Memorandum

Date: December 1, 2003 

To: Peter Ferrara 

From: Steve Goss, Chief Actuary 

Subject: Estimated Financial Effects of “The Progressive 

Personal Account Plan” --INFORMATION 

This memorandum provides estimates of the financial effects of the plan you 

have developed on Social Security financing. Also included is a description of 

the plan as I understand it based on our discussions of your specifications and 

intent. Certain aspects of the plan that do not directly affect Social Security 

financing but would alter Budget scoring rules are not addressed in this 

memorandum. 

This plan would establish voluntary, progressive individual accounts for workers 

who are under age 55 on January 1, 2005 and would provide for a reduction in 

the Social Security retirement and aged survivor benefits for those who 

participate. All participating workers would be guaranteed that the total benefits 

available from the combination of the OASDI program and their personal account 

would be at least equal to OASDI benefits scheduled under current law if they 

choose the default investment option. Those who never participate in the 

personal account option would be provided present-law scheduled benefits. 

Individual account (IA) assets would be invested by individual workers through a 

central administrative authority with a default allocation 65 percent in broad 

indexed equity funds and 35 percent in broad indexed corporate bond funds. 

Annuitization of a portion of the IA accumulation sufficient to assure total 

payments equal scheduled current-law benefits would be required at retirement. 

Individual account contributions would be redirected from the OASDI Trust 

Funds. The ability of the Social Security Trust Funds to meet benefit obligations 

would be maintained through transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury 

that would be specified in the law. 

Under the plan specifications described below the Social Security program would 

be expected to be solvent and to meet its benefit obligations throughout the longrange period 2003 through 2077 and beyond. All estimates are based on the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report plus additional 

assumptions described below. 
2

Plan Specification 

Individual Accounts 

Starting in 2005, all workers who will reach their 55th birthday on January 1, 2005 

or later will have the option to enroll in the personal account plan. Enrollees with 

earnings in OASDI (Social Security) covered employment will have a portion of 

their payroll tax contribution (12.4 percent of taxable earnings in total) redirected 

from the OASDI Trust Funds to an individual account. The percentage of 

taxable earnings to be redirected in 2005 will be 10 percent of the first $10,000 of 

covered earnings for the year, plus 5 percent of earnings in excess of $10,000 up 

to the OASDI taxable maximum amount (which is $87,000 for 2003). The 

$10,000 threshold would be indexed by increases in the SSA national Average 

Wage Index (AWI) for years after 2005. The progressive scale for IA 

contributions redirected from the OASDI Trust Funds is estimated to amount to 

about 6.4 percentage points of the 12.4 percent payroll tax rate on average. The 

total amount redirected from the OASDI contribution rate indicated in Table 1 is 

less than 6.4 percent of payroll for years through 2029, because workers age 55 

and older at the beginning of 2005 have no IA contributions. 

All individuals will apparently be allowed to voluntarily enroll or disenroll from the 

individual account plan at any time during their working years. However, any 

amounts redirected to the account in earlier years would remain in the account 

until distribution as described below. 

While participation in the individual account plan would be optional, and 

disenrollment allowed, the nature of the plan would provide a high likelihood that 

available retirement benefits will be more if enrollment is maintained. Total 

monthly retirement benefits for each worker who maintains enrollment throughout 

the period of eligibility and retains the default portfolio allocation would be 

guaranteed to be at least as large as benefits scheduled under current law for 

Social Security. In addition, personal account distributions are tax free, unlike 

Social Security benefits. Thus, participation is assumed to be universal for 

estimates presented in this memorandum. Individuals who never enroll would 

receive benefits scheduled under current law. 

IA contributions directed to the IA of a worker based on a year’s earnings are not 

determinable until earnings are reported to and tabulated by the Social Security 

Administration. Because this reporting is made by employers on an annual basis 

after the end of the calendar year, amounts for individual workers are not 

determinable for somewhat over a year, on average, after the date on which 

earnings are paid. Under the proposal, IA contributions would be credited to the 

individual accounts as soon as current reporting permits, with amounts increased 

by the actual yield on the default portfolio from June 30 of the year of earnings to 

the point of crediting to the workers account. 
3

Under the plan, individual account (IA) assets, once credited, would be 

automatically invested by workers through a central administrative authority that 

would maintain all records of individual transactions and balances. Participants 

would be offered a range of investment options provided by qualified private 

investment companies. The central administrative authority would group the 

assets of individuals for the purpose of transactions with private firms. Unless 

otherwise specified, IA balances would be maintained in a default portfolio with 

65 percent in a specified broad index fund consisting of private equities for 

corporations based in the United States (such as the Wilshire 5000) and 35 

percent in a broad index of corporate bonds issued by companies based in the 

United States. Due to the nature of the accounts, an ultimate administrative cost 

of 0.25 percent of assets is assumed to be reasonable. 

Annual changes in investment allocation would be allowed. However, because 

the guaranteed benefit level requires investment in the default option throughout 

the worker’s lifetime, we assume that the vast majority of account holders will 

retain the default portfolio, thus taking no risk that the total monthly plan benefits 

will end up being less than if IA enrollment had not been selected. 

IA Disbursements and Annuitization 

At retirement, the participating worker would be required to purchase a life 

annuity with CPI-indexed payments using the portion of IA accumulated assets 

necessary to provide a total monthly payment (including any OASDI monthly 

benefit under the plan) that is at least equal to the benefits specified under 

current law from the OASDI program. The annuity would be administered by the 

central administrative authority, with private investment firms handling the 

investment of assets on an aggregated (group) basis. In order to qualify for the 

guarantee, the annuity would need to be computed at retirement based on an 

assumption of investment of 65 percent in a broad equity index and 35 percent in 

a broad corporate-bond index, with an assumed administrative expense of 0.25 

percent of assets each year. Assets supporting the annuity would, in fact, be 

invested 65 percent in equities and 35 percent in corporate bonds. The annuity 

would be computed using the assumed long-term future returns on equities and 

corporate bonds as determined by the central administrative authority at the time 

of annuitization. This central administrative authority would assume all risk 

associated with guaranteeing this yield on life annuities, regardless of what 

actual investment returns turn out to be. The central administrative authority 

would be backed by the Treasury of the United States government. Thus, the 

General Fund of the Treasury would provide the “insurance” that the full amount 

of the annuity will be paid for life regardless of actual investment returns. 

If less than the total amount of IA assets is annuitized, the balance of IA assets 

may be disbursed or held as the retired worker wishes. All accumulations in and 

disbursements from individual accounts, including annuity payments, would be 

exempt from Federal personal income tax. 
4

Upon entitlement to retirement or aged survivor benefits under the current rules 

of the OASDI program, a monthly CPI-indexed annuity amount based on the 

specifications described above would be computed by the central administrative 

authority. The annuity would reflect all potential benefits that might be payable 

under the OASDI program (i.e., retired worker, spouse, child, widow(er), and 

surviving spouse benefits). Annuity calculations would be made at benefit 

entitlement based on the then-current expected long-range future yield on 

invested assets and the then-current expected future death rates for the potential 

beneficiaries. 

For individuals who die before receiving retirement (retired worker or aged 

spouse) benefits, the IA assets will be transferred to the account of the surviving 

spouse, if any, but will be allocated as needed to provide annuities for any 

surviving children of the deceased. If there are no survivors, and the worker dies 

before such benefit entitlement, then the account balance goes to the worker’s 

estate, tax free. 

Social Security Benefit Reduction 

OASI retirement and aged survivor benefits will be reduced based on the 

participation by the worker in the personal account option. Benefits payable to 

disabled worker beneficiaries (prior to conversion to retired worker status at the 

normal retirement age), to their dependents, and to survivors other than surviving 

spouse beneficiaries at age 60 or older are not subject to the reduction. 

Reductions in affected OASI benefits would be made based on the proportion of 

potential lifetime contributions that was realized. Specifically, the benefit 

reduction would be equal to the present law scheduled OASI benefits multiplied 

by the ratio of (a) the present value of all contributions redirected to the worker’s 

account, to (b) the present value of all potential contributions that might have 

been made if the plan had been in existence throughout the working lifetime of 

the worker. Present values would be computed using the realized OASDI annual 

Trust Fund yields. Potential contributions for years before 2005 would be 

computed by indexing the $10,000 threshold back to earlier years using the AWI. 

Based on the reduction described above, workers who first enter the workforce in 

2005 or later, and who choose to participate fully in the personal account through 

their working lifetime would have their affected OASI benefits reduced to zero. 

However, as noted above, the OASI program might still pay some benefits in 

cases where the individual account was invested in the default portfolio 

throughout their career and the annuity from fully annuitizing the IA accumulation 

would be less than the present law scheduled OASI benefit. 
5

Central Administrative Authority 

The personal accounts and special annuities (annuity required to make the total 

benefit at least equal to the present law scheduled OASI benefit) for all workers 

will be administered by a single entity, the central administrative authority, 

maintaining records and issuing periodic statements to account holders. The IA 

management would be based on the design of the government employee Thrift 

Savings Plan (TSP), with limited reporting requirements. Aggregated assets 

would be invested by privately managed investment firms. Through this 

approach it is assumed that IA administrative costs can be expected to be 

modest, ultimately around 0.25 percent of IA assets for each account holder. 

This might require some Federal subsidy in early years for the IA, when account 

balances are low and start-up costs are incurred. 

General Fund Transfers to the Trust Funds 

The OASDI Trust Funds will receive transfers from the General Fund of the 

Treasury through three mechanisms. The first two mechanisms are designed to 

provide revenue in keeping with potential revenue gains associated with the 

provisions of the proposal. The transfers from these three mechanisms would 

eventually be offset by a fourth mechanism for a “reverse” transfer from the Trust 

Funds to the General Fund. 

The first transfer mechanism would provide for amounts to be transferred to the 

OASDI Trust Funds equal to the potential corporate taxes that might result from 

investment of IA accumulations and annuities. The transfer amount would be 

computed assuming that all IA assets are invested in the default portfolio and 

that all IA accumulations available at retirement would be fully annuitized in the 

special life annuity offered by the central administrative authority. The 

computation of potential corporate tax revenue transfer would be specified in the 

law to follow the parameters adopted by former Senator Phil Gramm in his 

proposal. The parameters were laid out in the OCACT memorandum to Senator 

Gramm of April 16, 1999. 

“The “recapture of corporate tax” on individual 

account yield would be directed to the OASDI trust 

funds. This recapture would be specified in law, 

intending to reflect the additional corporate taxes 

resulting from the additional domestic corporate 

investment from account assets. The plan would 

specify that the recapture would be assumed to equal 

23.9 percent of the real, before tax, corporate return 

on investments. Because reported real yield on 

accounts would be after corporate tax, and the 23.9 

percent rate is intended to apply to corporate income 

before tax, the actual rate applied to after tax 

income would be 31.4% = 23.9% / (1-.239). This 
6

provision would provide a substantial and growing 

source of income to the OASDI program.” 

The value of 23.9 percent was derived from the assumption of an ultimate 

average 35 percent rate applied to 68.4 percent of invested IA assets. Thus, the 

General Fund transfer based on potential corporate tax resulting from IA and 

annuity investments would equal 31.4 percent of the yield on combined IA 

accumulation and annuity assets. 

The second transfer mechanism would specify transfers from the General Fund 

of the Treasury to the Trust Funds equal to the amount by which Federal 

Government spending would be reduced from a specific baseline, if growth in 

spending were reduced by 1 percent each year starting 2005 and lasting for at 

least 8 years (through 2012). The specified transfer amounts would assume that 

“baseline” Federal spending would equal 20 percent of GDP, and that the 

continuing 1-percent growth-rate reductions would continue as long as needed 

so that transfers to the OASDI program would result in combined Trust Fund 

ratios that would not be projected to fall below 100 percent under the provisions 

of the plan. Transfers would continue after the last year in which spending 

growth is assumed to be reduced, assuming that the cumulative percentage 

reduction in the level of Federal spending would continue indefinitely. 

The plan would provide direction to the Congress and the President that the 

growth rate in total actual Federal Government spending should be diminished as 

specified above for the computation of transfers. Specified transfers to the Trust 

Funds would, however, not be contingent on achieving these reductions in actual 

Federal spending. 

The third transfer mechanism would provide for the Treasury to issue additional 

bonds to the public in order to generate revenue to transfer to the Trust Funds if, 

at any time, the combined OASDI Trust Fund ratio is projected to fall below 100 

percent under the provisions of the plan, including the first two transfer 

mechanisms. This provision would guarantee solvency for the Trust Funds in 

any circumstance. 

The fourth transfer mechanism would provide for a “reverse” transfer from the 

Trust Funds to the Treasury. This transfer would become effective when it is 

determined that in order to maintain a TFR of at least 100 percent and OASDI 

annual balances of zero or greater (1) the third transfer above is not projected to 

be needed in the future and (2) the full amount of transfers from the first two 

mechanisms is not projected to be needed for any future year, under the 

Trustees intermediate assumptions. 
7

Cuts in OASDI Contribution Rate 

If for any year net transfers described above are set at zero and are not projected 

to be needed in any future year, then any positive cash flow projected for the 

OASDI program will be eliminated by a reduction in the combined payroll tax rate 

(12.4 percent under current law). However, this reduction will apply only to the 

extent that it does not result in projections of declining Trust Fund assets 

expressed as a percent of annual program cost for future years. 

Assumptions 

The guarantee that would be available for all individual-account participants who 

maintain the default portfolio allocation would assure that their total benefits will 

be no lower than if they do not exercise the option, but may well be higher. As a 

result, both universal participation in the personal account option and a universal 

choice of the default portfolio allocation have been assumed for estimates 

presented in this memorandum. 

The cost of providing the guarantee for individual account participants is 

estimated assuming variation in realized account yields across years, 

generations, and individuals within generations. For individuals or generations 

with account yields substantially below the average expected return, the 

guarantee may result in additional payments from the Trust Funds. For 

individuals and generations that experience higher than expected returns, little if 

any cost for the guarantee will be incurred. 

As indicated above, estimates provided in this memorandum are based on the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report. In addition, the longterm ultimate average annual real yield assumed for equities is 6.5 percent. This 

is somewhat lower than the historical real equity yield over the last several 

decades. 

A consensus is forming among economists that equity pricing, as indicated by 

price-to-earnings ratios, may average somewhat higher in the long-term future 

than in the long-term past. This is consistent with broader access to equity 

markets and the belief that equities may be viewed as somewhat less “risky” in 

the future than in the past. Equity pricing will vary in the future as in the past. 

Price-to-earnings ratios were very high through 1999, and are now lower. The 

average ultimate real equity yield assumed for estimates in this memorandum is 

consistent with an average ultimate level of equity pricing somewhat above the 

average level of the past. 

The assumption for an ultimate real equity yield of 7 percent that was used by the 

Office of the Chief Actuary until 2001 was developed in 1995 with the 1994-6 

Advisory Council. At that time, the Trustees assumption for the ultimate average 
8

real yield on long-term Treasury bonds was 2.3 percent. Real yields on 

corporate bonds are believed to bear a close relationship to Treasury bond yields 

of similar duration. The 2003 Trustees Report includes the assumption that the 

ultimate real yield on long-term Treasury bonds will average 3 percent, or 0.7 

percentage point higher than assumed in 1995. This increase in the assumed 

bond yield is consistent with a reduction in the perceived risk associated with 

equity investments. 

It should be noted that the precise effects on implementing a plan that would 

result in a large demand for equities and corporate bonds on the yields of these 

securities is not clear. This demand would likely be at least partially offset by 

reductions in demand for other investment mechanisms. For the purpose of 

these estimates, it is assumed that there will be no net dynamic feedback effects 

on the economy or on the financial markets. Moreover, the intended effects on 

growth in Federal spending are not reflected in these estimates. 

Financial Effects of the Plan 

Trust Fund Operations 

Table 1 indicates that under the intermediate assumptions of the 2003 Trustees 

Report and the assumed average yields for equities and corporate bonds 

described above, the OASDI program is projected to solvent throughout the 75-

year projection period and beyond. The trust fund ratio is projected to be large, 

twelve times annual program cost at the end of 75 years and to be increasing. 

Net General Fund transfers expressed as a percent of taxable payroll are 

projected to rise to a peak of 7.25 percent for 2029 and decline thereafter, 

reaching zero 2055 and later. The effective OASDI contribution rate is reduced 

from the nominal level of 12.4 percent by (1) the amount redirected to personal 

accounts, which reaches 6.4 percent of payroll for 2030 and later, and (2) the cut 

in the contribution rate that is projected to be possible starting in 2055, while 

maintaining a zero annual cash-flow balance for the OASDI program with a rising 

trust fund ratio. 

The actuarial deficit for the OASDI program over the 75-year projection period 

would be improved by an estimated 2.21 percent of taxable payroll, from an 

actuarial deficit of 1.92 percent of payroll projected under current law to a positive 

actuarial balance of 0.29 percent of payroll under the plan. 

Table 1’ provides the same presentation as table 1, but omitting all specified 

transfers and cuts in the payroll tax contribution rate under the plan. This table 

provides an illustration of the net effect of the specific elements of the plan 

directly related to the individual account option. These are the redirection of 
9

payroll taxes to the individual accounts and reduction in OASI benefit levels for 

those who participate in the individual account option. 

Program Transfers and Assets 

Table 1a provides an analysis of General Fund net transfers under the plan and 

of net OASDI Trust Fund assets. Columns 1 through 3 provide the estimated 

amounts of annual transfers under the first, second, and fourth transfer 

mechanisms described above. The reverse transfer (column 3) reaches the level 

of the other two transfers combined for 2055. Note that the additional transfers 

permitted under the third mechanism are not projected to be needed under these 

assumptions. Column 4 provides the cumulative total amount of net transfers 

from the General Fund of the Treasury under the plan through the end of each 

year. 

Total projected OASDI Trust Fund assets are shown in column 5. For purpose of 

comparison, the net OASDI Trust Fund assets are also shown for a theoretical 

Social Security program where borrowing authority is assumed for the Trust 

Funds. The theoretical Social Security program with borrowing authority is 

presented both without and with the net General Fund transfers expected under 

this plan, in columns 7 and 8, respectively. 

If the individual accounts are considered as a part of a “total system”, along with 

the OASDI program, then it is reasonable to consider “total system assets”. 

These would be the sum of net OASDI trust fund assets and IA assets (columns 

5 and 6). Under the intermediate assumptions and assuming full annuitization of 

IA assets, total system assets are expected to be large and growing in real terms 

at the end of the 75-year projection period. 

Effect on the Federal Unified Budget 

Table 1b provides estimates of the effect on federal unified budget cash flows 

and balances under this plan and these assumptions. All values in this table 

represent the amount of the change that would be expected as a result of 

implementing the proposal, from the level that would be projected under current 

law. The effect of the plan on unified budget cash flow (column 6) would be 

expected to be negative initially, but positive starting 2042. It is important to 

note that these estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2003 

Trustees Report and thus are not consistent with estimates made by the OMB or 

the CBO based of their assumptions. 

Column 7 provides the projected effect of implementing the plan on the Federal 

debt held by the public. Column 8 provides the projected effect on the annual 

unified budget balances, including both the cash flow effect in column 6 and the 

additional interest on the accumulated debt indicated in column 8. 
10

As noted above, these projections do not reflect any potential change from 

reductions in the growth of Federal spending or from possible net increases in 

corporate taxes due to the individual account investments that are intended to 

occur as a result of implementation of this plan. The cumulative amounts of 

transfers to the Trust Funds associated with these intended effects are presented 

in columns 9 and 10. If these transfers were fully offset by corresponding 

increases in corporate tax revenue or reductions in Federal spending, then the 

projected change in the debt held by the public under this plan (column 7) would 

be reduced by these amounts. 

Cash Flow to the General Fund of the Treasury 

Table 1c provides estimates of the net cash flow from the OASDI Trust Funds to 

the General Fund of the Treasury. Revenue paid by the Treasury to the Trust 

Funds for the redemption of the special-issue Treasury obligations held by the 

Trust Funds is included here as a negative cash flow to the General Fund. 

Specified transfers from the General Fund under the plan also are shown as 

negative cash flow. 

Values in Table 1c are shown as a percent of taxable payroll, in current dollars, 

in present value dollars as of 1/1/2003, and in constant 2003 dollars (discounted 

to 2003 with the projected growth in the CPI). For comparison purposes, net 

cash flow is also shown for a theoretical Social Security program where transfers 

from the General Fund of the Treasury to the OASDI Trust Funds are assumed 

to occur as needed to assure full payment of scheduled benefits in 2042 and 

later. 

Development of Transfers under the Plan 

Table 1d provides estimates of the amounts of the specified transfers under the 

plan in present value discounted to January 1, 2003. Columns 1, 2, and 3 

develop the specified transfer based on the intended reduction in the growth in 

Federal spending. Column 1 provides the projected GDP under the Trustees 

intermediate assumptions. Column 2 provides what GDP would be if it grew 1 

percent slower in each of the years 2005 through 2012. Column 3 provides 20 

percent of the difference between columns 1 and 2, or the specified amount of 

transfer. Column 4 provides the estimated amount of annual transfers related to 

corporate tax on Individual Account investments. Column 5 provides the 

estimated reverse transfers, which are determined to offset the transfers in 

columns 3 and 4 when they are no longer needed. Column 6 provides the 

cumulative amount of net transfers from columns 3, 4, and 5 through the end of 

the year. Finally, the values in columns 7, 8, and 9 provide the annual net 

transfer amounts for the three mechanisms combined. 
11

Sensitivity Analysis 

Tables 2, 2a, 2b, 2c, and 2d provide an analysis of the implications of realizing 

actual real yields on individual account assets that are equal to the assumed 

average real yield on long-term Treasury bonds, or 3 percent. This may be 

viewed as either illustrating the case where the average real yield on equities and 

corporate bonds is no higher than on government bonds, or illustrating the effect 

of assuming risk-adjusted returns on equities and corporate bonds. In each 

case, the “expected” yield on annuitized assets is assumed to match the actual 

yield, on average. It should be noted that while average real yields for equities 

have been at or below average bond yields for periods of a decade or so, the 

likelihood of having such a low average yield for a period of several decades 

seems extremely low. 

Table 2 indicates that net General Fund transfers would be needed longer, 

throughout the 75-year projection period. This is largely due to the fact that, with 

the assumed low yield on individual account assets, the cost of providing the 

guarantee is far higher—see table 2b column 3. The low yield in addition results 

in lower projected transfers based on corporate tax on IA investments—see table 

2a column 2. As a result, the transfer based on assumed reductions in growth in 

total Federal spending are required to reflect greater reductions, extending from 

2005 through 2015, or 3 years longer than under the assumptions of tables 1. 

Thus, with the low yield assumed on individual account assets, reverse transfers 

do not reach the point of fully offsetting transfers based on slowed growth in 

Federal spending and corporate tax on account investments (see table 2a) and it 

is not possible to reduce the payroll tax rate within this period. 

Only one sensitivity example is provided because the financial status of the 

OASDI Trust Funds under the plan is relatively insensitive to individual account 

returns. Even the very low average returns in tables 2 require only a 3 year 

extension of the period of assumed Federal spending slowdown for transfer. 

It must be noted that the uncertainties associated with equity investments, bond 

yields, and mortality improvement, as well as with a number of additional 

variables means that actual experience could vary from the illustrations provided 

in Tables 1 and 2. In any case, the plan would provide for adequate financing for 

the OASDI program through the provisions described above. 

 

 Stephen C. Goss 

Attachments
Table 1 Ferrara Prop--HighExpAnnYld, Incrs GF Trans for spend cut thru2012 IA Cntrb 6.4 %, Ben Offset 100.0 % 

 With Ult Real TF Int Rate of 3.0 CorpTax toTF as%of Pre Change Cut in

 With Ult Real IA Yld Rate of 5.2 tax IA RealYld 23.9 in OASDI Effective Contrib IA Contrib

 With Annuity Net Yld Rate 5.2 Net GF Trans Effective OASDI Rate for Rate---

Cost Income Annual TFR to TF 1/ Contrib Contrib Annual Redirected

Year Rate Rate 1/ Balance 1-1-yr (%ofPyrl) Rate Rate 2/ Balance from PyrlTax

2003 10.89 12.70 1.81 288 12.40 0

2004 10.82 12.69 1.88 309 12.40 0

2005 10.73 7.64 -3.10 330 0.32 -5.38 7.02 5.38

2006 10.65 7.92 -2.74 305 0.92 -0.32 6.69 5.71

2007 10.67 8.42 -2.24 282 1.52 -0.11 6.59 5.81

2008 10.73 8.94 -1.79 262 2.12 -0.10 6.49 5.91

2009 10.84 9.47 -1.37 246 2.73 -0.09 6.40 6.00

2010 10.99 10.01 -0.97 233 3.33 -0.08 6.32 6.08

2011 11.16 10.60 -0.56 223 3.94 -0.06 6.26 6.14

2012 11.37 11.18 -0.19 217 4.55 -0.05 6.21 6.19

2013 11.60 11.29 -0.30 214 4.69 -0.04 6.16 6.24

2014 11.83 11.41 -0.42 210 4.83 -0.04 6.12 6.28

2015 12.07 11.54 -0.53 206 4.97 -0.03 6.09 6.31

2016 12.32 11.68 -0.63 200 5.12 -0.02 6.07 6.33

2017 12.55 11.84 -0.72 195 5.27 -0.01 6.06 6.34

2018 12.79 12.00 -0.79 188 5.42 -0.01 6.05 6.35

2019 13.00 12.17 -0.84 182 5.59 -0.01 6.04 6.36

2020 13.21 12.34 -0.87 176 5.75 -0.01 6.03 6.37

2021 13.41 12.51 -0.90 169 5.92 -0.01 6.03 6.37

2022 13.58 12.69 -0.89 163 6.09 -0.01 6.02 6.38

2023 13.71 12.87 -0.84 158 6.26 0.00 6.02 6.38

2024 13.81 13.05 -0.76 153 6.44 0.00 6.02 6.38

2025 13.89 13.24 -0.65 149 6.62 0.00 6.01 6.39

2026 13.93 13.42 -0.51 147 6.80 0.00 6.01 6.39

2027 13.95 13.61 -0.34 145 6.98 0.00 6.01 6.39

2028 13.93 13.79 -0.13 145 7.17 0.00 6.01 6.39

2029 13.87 13.87 0.00 147 7.25 0.00 6.01 6.39

2030 13.78 13.78 0.00 150 7.15 0.00 6.00 6.40

2031 13.65 13.65 0.00 154 7.03 0.00 6.00 6.40

2032 13.49 13.50 0.00 158 6.88 0.00 6.00 6.40

2033 13.31 13.31 0.00 163 6.70 0.00 6.00 6.40

2034 13.09 13.09 0.00 168 6.49 0.00 6.00 6.40

2035 12.86 12.86 0.00 174 6.27 0.00 6.00 6.40

2036 12.61 12.61 0.00 180 6.03 0.00 6.00 6.40

2037 12.34 12.34 0.00 187 5.77 0.00 6.00 6.40

2038 12.05 12.05 0.00 194 5.50 0.00 6.00 6.40

2039 11.74 11.75 0.00 203 5.20 0.00 6.00 6.40

2040 11.42 11.43 0.00 211 4.90 0.00 6.00 6.40

2041 11.09 11.10 0.00 221 4.59 0.00 6.00 6.40

2042 10.75 10.75 0.00 232 4.25 0.00 6.00 6.40

2043 10.40 10.40 0.00 244 3.92 0.00 6.00 6.40

2044 10.03 10.04 0.00 256 3.58 0.00 6.00 6.40

2045 9.68 9.67 0.00 270 3.23 0.00 6.00 6.40

2046 9.31 9.31 0.00 285 2.89 0.00 6.00 6.40

2047 8.94 8.94 0.00 302 2.54 0.00 6.00 6.40

2048 8.57 8.57 0.00 320 2.18 0.00 6.00 6.40

2049 8.20 8.20 0.00 340 1.84 0.00 6.00 6.40

2050 7.84 7.84 0.00 362 1.49 0.00 6.00 6.40

2051 7.48 7.48 0.00 385 1.15 0.00 6.00 6.40

2052 7.13 7.13 0.00 411 0.82 0.00 6.00 6.40

2053 6.80 6.80 0.00 438 0.50 0.00 6.00 6.40

2054 6.48 6.48 0.00 468 0.21 0.00 6.00 6.40

2055 6.19 6.19 0.00 497 0.00 -0.07 5.93 0.07 6.40

2056 5.92 5.92 0.00 529 0.00 -0.26 5.68 0.32 6.40

2057 5.67 5.67 0.00 562 0.00 -0.24 5.43 0.57 6.40

2058 5.43 5.43 0.00 596 0.00 -0.23 5.21 0.79 6.40

2059 5.21 5.21 0.00 631 0.00 -0.21 5.00 1.00 6.40

2060 5.01 5.01 0.00 668 0.00 -0.19 4.81 1.19 6.40

2061 4.82 4.82 0.00 705 0.00 -0.17 4.63 1.37 6.40

2062 4.65 4.65 0.00 742 0.00 -0.16 4.47 1.53 6.40

2063 4.50 4.50 0.00 780 0.00 -0.14 4.33 1.67 6.40

2064 4.36 4.36 0.00 818 0.00 -0.13 4.20 1.80 6.40

2065 4.26 4.26 0.00 852 0.00 -0.10 4.10 1.90 6.40

2066 4.16 4.16 0.00 886 0.00 -0.09 4.01 1.99 6.40

2067 4.08 4.08 0.00 920 0.00 -0.08 3.93 2.07 6.40

2068 4.00 4.00 0.00 953 0.00 -0.07 3.85 2.15 6.40

2069 3.93 3.93 0.00 986 0.00 -0.06 3.79 2.21 6.40

2070 3.87 3.87 0.00 1,018 0.00 -0.06 3.74 2.26 6.40

2071 3.82 3.82 0.00 1,049 0.00 -0.05 3.69 2.31 6.40

2072 3.78 3.78 0.00 1,079 0.00 -0.04 3.65 2.35 6.40

2073 3.74 3.74 0.00 1,108 0.00 -0.03 3.61 2.39 6.40

2074 3.71 3.71 0.00 1,136 0.00 -0.03 3.58 2.42 6.40

2075 3.69 3.69 0.00 1,163 0.00 -0.02 3.56 2.44 6.40

2076 3.66 3.66 0.00 1,190 0.00 -0.02 3.54 2.46 6.40

2077 3.65 3.65 0.00 1,217 0.00 -0.02 3.52 2.48 6.40

2078 3.63 3.63 0.00 1,243 0.00 -0.01 3.51 2.50 6.40

CostRt IncRt ActBal Change in

2003 OASDI OASDI OASDI ActBal

-2077 10.30 10.59 0.29 2.21

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report.

 With Ult Real Int Rate of 3.00 Office of the Actuary

1/ Includes Specified and CorpTax-based GF Transfers (see table 1.d). Social Security Administration

2/ Net payroll tax rate to the Trust Funds; reduced by amount redirected for IA contribution, and cut for Ann Bal. December 1, 2003

 Summarized
Table 1' Ferrara Prop--HighExpAnnYld, No GF Transfers or Tax Cuts IA Cntrb 6.4 %, Ben Offset 100.0 % 

 With Ult Real TF Int Rate of 3.0 Change Cut in

 With Ult Real IA Yld Rate of 5.2 in OASDI Effective Contrib IA Contrib

 With Annuity Net Yld Rate 5.2 Net GF Trans Effective OASDI Rate for Rate---

Cost Income Annual TFR to TF 1/ Contrib Contrib Annual Redirected

Year Rate Rate 1/ Balance 1-1-yr (%ofPyrl) Rate Rate 2/ Balance from PyrlTax

2003 10.89 12.70 1.81 288 12.40 0

2004 10.82 12.69 1.88 309 12.40 0

2005 10.73 7.32 -3.42 330 0.00 -5.38 7.02 5.38

2006 10.65 7.00 -3.66 302 0.00 -0.32 6.69 5.71

2007 10.67 6.90 -3.76 270 0.00 -0.11 6.59 5.81

2008 10.73 6.82 -3.91 237 0.00 -0.10 6.49 5.91

2009 10.84 6.74 -4.10 201 0.00 -0.09 6.40 6.00

2010 10.99 6.68 -4.31 164 0.00 -0.08 6.32 6.08

2011 11.16 6.66 -4.50 125 0.00 -0.06 6.26 6.14

2012 11.37 6.63 -4.74 86 0.00 -0.05 6.21 6.19

2013 11.60 6.61 -4.99 45 0.00 -0.04 6.16 6.24

2014 11.83 6.58 -5.25 3 0.00 -0.04 6.12 6.28

2015 12.07 6.57 -5.50 -- 0.00 -0.03 6.09 6.31

2016 12.32 6.57 -5.75 -- 0.00 -0.02 6.07 6.33

2017 12.55 6.57 -5.99 -- 0.00 -0.01 6.06 6.34

2018 12.79 6.57 -6.22 -- 0.00 -0.01 6.05 6.35

2019 13.00 6.58 -6.42 -- 0.00 -0.01 6.04 6.36

2020 13.21 6.59 -6.62 -- 0.00 -0.01 6.03 6.37

2021 13.41 6.60 -6.82 -- 0.00 -0.01 6.03 6.37

2022 13.58 6.60 -6.98 -- 0.00 -0.01 6.02 6.38

2023 13.71 6.61 -7.10 -- 0.00 0.00 6.02 6.38

2024 13.81 6.61 -7.20 -- 0.00 0.00 6.02 6.38

2025 13.89 6.62 -7.27 -- 0.00 0.00 6.01 6.39

2026 13.93 6.62 -7.31 -- 0.00 0.00 6.01 6.39

2027 13.95 6.63 -7.32 -- 0.00 0.00 6.01 6.39

2028 13.93 6.63 -7.30 -- 0.00 0.00 6.01 6.39

2029 13.87 6.63 -7.24 -- 0.00 0.00 6.01 6.39

2030 13.78 6.63 -7.15 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2031 13.65 6.62 -7.03 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2032 13.49 6.62 -6.88 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2033 13.31 6.61 -6.70 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2034 13.09 6.60 -6.49 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2035 12.86 6.59 -6.27 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2036 12.61 6.58 -6.03 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2037 12.34 6.57 -5.77 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2038 12.05 6.56 -5.50 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2039 11.74 6.54 -5.20 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2040 11.42 6.53 -4.90 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2041 11.09 6.51 -4.58 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2042 10.75 6.49 -4.25 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2043 10.40 6.48 -3.92 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2044 10.03 6.46 -3.58 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2045 9.68 6.44 -3.24 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2046 9.31 6.42 -2.89 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2047 8.94 6.40 -2.54 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2048 8.57 6.38 -2.19 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2049 8.20 6.36 -1.84 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2050 7.84 6.35 -1.49 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2051 7.48 6.33 -1.15 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2052 7.13 6.31 -0.83 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2053 6.80 6.29 -0.51 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2054 6.48 6.28 -0.20 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2055 6.19 6.26 0.07 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2056 5.92 6.25 0.32 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2057 5.67 6.23 0.57 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2058 5.43 6.22 0.79 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2059 5.21 6.21 1.00 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2060 5.01 6.20 1.19 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2061 4.82 6.19 1.37 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2062 4.65 6.18 1.53 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2063 4.50 6.17 1.67 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2064 4.36 6.16 1.80 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2065 4.26 6.16 1.90 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2066 4.16 6.15 1.99 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2067 4.08 6.15 2.07 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2068 4.00 6.15 2.15 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2069 3.93 6.14 2.21 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2070 3.87 6.14 2.26 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2071 3.82 6.14 2.31 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2072 3.78 6.13 2.35 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2073 3.74 6.13 2.39 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2074 3.71 6.13 2.42 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2075 3.69 6.13 2.44 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2076 3.66 6.13 2.46 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2077 3.65 6.13 2.48 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2078 3.63 6.13 2.50 -- 0.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

CostRt IncRt ActBal Change in

2003 OASDI OASDI OASDI ActBal

-2077 10.30 7.47 -2.83 -0.91

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report.

 With Ult Real Int Rate of 3.00 Office of the Actuary

1/ Includes Specified and CorpTax-based GF Transfers. Social Security Administration

2/ Net payroll tax rate to the Trust Funds; reduced by amount redirected for IA contribution, and cut for Ann Bal. December 1, 2003

 Summarized
Table 1 a Proposal GF Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Assets, Individual Account Assets, and Theoretical OASDI Assets

Accumulated Total OASDI Individual

Specified for Corp Reverse GF Transfers Trust Fund Account

Calendar Slowed FedGov Tax Tran for at End of Assets Assets 1/ Without GF With GF Transfer

Year Spending Recap Ann Balance Year at End of Yr at End of Yr Transfer (amount for Ferrara)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

Billions of Constant 2003 Dollars Billions of Constant 2003 Dollars

2003 0 0 0 0 1,543 0 1,543 1,543

2004 0 0 0 0 1,683 0 1,683 1,683

2005 12 3 0 15 1,591 260 1,833 1,848

2006 36 8 0 61 1,506 556 1,990 2,050

2007 61 13 0 139 1,440 880 2,154 2,293

2008 87 19 0 252 1,392 1,233 2,323 2,575

2009 113 25 0 402 1,363 1,616 2,493 2,896

2010 141 32 0 592 1,352 2,029 2,664 3,257

2011 169 39 0 824 1,362 2,473 2,835 3,659

2012 198 46 0 1,100 1,393 2,945 3,001 4,101

2013 201 54 0 1,397 1,418 3,446 3,161 4,557

2014 205 62 0 1,714 1,437 3,975 3,312 5,026

2015 208 71 0 2,053 1,449 4,535 3,452 5,505

2016 212 80 0 2,416 1,455 5,122 3,579 5,995

2017 215 89 0 2,802 1,455 5,739 3,691 6,492

2018 219 100 0 3,213 1,451 6,386 3,786 6,999

2019 222 110 0 3,652 1,443 7,063 3,863 7,515

2020 226 121 0 4,119 1,432 7,771 3,921 8,040

2021 229 133 0 4,616 1,418 8,509 3,956 8,572

2022 233 145 0 5,144 1,403 9,279 3,971 9,114

2023 237 157 0 5,704 1,390 10,081 3,964 9,668

2024 240 170 0 6,298 1,382 10,914 3,936 10,234

2025 244 184 0 6,928 1,380 11,778 3,885 10,813

2026 248 198 0 7,595 1,387 12,674 3,813 11,408

2027 252 212 0 8,302 1,405 13,602 3,718 12,020

2028 256 227 0 9,049 1,438 14,560 3,601 12,649

2029 260 243 7 9,830 1,481 15,550 3,461 13,291

2030 264 259 27 10,636 1,525 16,571 3,300 13,936

2031 268 275 49 11,465 1,571 17,621 3,119 14,583

2032 273 292 74 12,314 1,618 18,701 2,917 15,231

2033 277 309 101 13,183 1,666 19,810 2,696 15,879

2034 282 327 131 14,070 1,716 20,947 2,457 16,527

2035 286 344 164 14,973 1,767 22,110 2,200 17,173

2036 291 363 198 15,892 1,820 23,299 1,925 17,817

2037 296 382 235 16,824 1,875 24,511 1,634 18,458

2038 300 401 274 17,769 1,931 25,746 1,326 19,095

2039 305 420 315 18,725 1,989 27,001 1,001 19,726

2040 310 439 358 19,690 2,049 28,275 661 20,350

2041 315 459 402 20,663 2,110 29,564 303 20,966

2042 320 479 449 21,643 2,173 30,867 -73 21,570

2043 325 499 497 22,629 2,238 32,180 -467 22,162

2044 330 519 547 23,619 2,305 33,499 -881 22,738

2045 335 539 597 24,613 2,374 34,823 -1,316 23,296

2046 340 559 649 25,609 2,445 36,148 -1,774 23,835

2047 345 579 701 26,607 2,517 37,473 -2,255 24,352

2048 350 599 755 27,605 2,593 38,791 -2,761 24,845

2049 356 619 808 28,604 2,670 40,091 -3,292 25,312

2050 361 638 862 29,603 2,750 41,371 -3,851 25,751

2051 366 657 916 30,601 2,832 42,631 -4,440 26,161

2052 372 675 970 31,598 2,916 43,866 -5,059 26,539

2053 377 693 1,023 32,595 3,003 45,089 -5,710 26,885

2054 383 711 1,074 33,594 3,094 46,300 -6,394 27,199

2055 389 729 1,118 34,601 3,186 47,498 -7,113 27,488

2056 395 747 1,142 35,639 3,282 48,681 -7,867 27,772

2057 401 764 1,165 36,709 3,380 49,849 -8,657 28,051

2058 407 782 1,188 37,810 3,481 51,002 -9,485 28,325

2059 413 799 1,211 38,944 3,585 52,138 -10,350 28,594

2060 419 815 1,234 40,112 3,692 53,258 -11,255 28,858

2061 425 832 1,257 41,316 3,803 54,361 -12,199 29,117

2062 432 848 1,279 42,555 3,917 55,447 -13,185 29,370

2063 438 864 1,302 43,832 4,034 56,517 -14,215 29,617

2064 445 879 1,324 45,147 4,155 57,571 -15,289 29,858

2065 451 895 1,346 46,501 4,279 58,609 -16,411 30,090

2066 458 910 1,368 47,896 4,407 59,632 -17,581 30,315

2067 465 925 1,390 49,333 4,539 60,641 -18,802 30,531

2068 472 940 1,412 50,813 4,675 61,637 -20,076 30,738

2069 479 954 1,433 52,338 4,815 62,620 -21,404 30,934

2070 486 969 1,455 53,908 4,959 63,593 -22,789 31,119

2071 493 983 1,476 55,525 5,108 64,557 -24,232 31,293

2072 500 997 1,498 57,191 5,260 65,513 -25,736 31,455

2073 508 1,012 1,519 58,906 5,418 66,462 -27,303 31,603

2074 515 1,026 1,541 60,674 5,580 67,406 -28,935 31,739

2075 523 1,040 1,563 62,494 5,747 68,346 -30,634 31,860

2076 530 1,054 1,584 64,369 5,920 69,284 -32,402 31,966

2077 538 1,068 1,606 66,300 6,097 70,221 -34,242 32,058

2078 546 1,082 1,628 68,289 6,279 71,158 -36,156 32,133

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report.

1/ Including annuity assets, assuming all annuitize fully. Office of the Actuary

2/ Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption Social Security Administration

 that the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury. Revised -- December 8, 2003

Theoretical Social Security 2/

with Borrowing Authority;

Net OASDI TF Assets End of Yr 

Proposal General Fund Transfers
Table 1 b IA Assets & Contributions, OASI Benefit Changes, & Total Unified Budget Effect--Plus Cumulative GF Transfers 1/

Ave IA Cntrb 6.4 %, Benefit Offset 100.0 %

IA+Annuity Amount Cost to guar Cut in Change Change in Change Cumulative Transfers

Balance Contrib to IA: OASDI +IA OASI Benefit Contrib in Annual Debt Held by in Ann Based on Based on

at End of % by Fed Gov benefits at Cut for IA Rate for UnifBudg the Public UnifBudg Fed Spending CorpTax

 Year Year 100 PLSched Participation AnnBal CashFlow (EOY) Balance Slowdown 1/ Recap 1/

 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

 (Billions of Constant 2003$)

2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0

2005 259.6 249.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -249.3 256.9 -256.9 12 3

2006 556.1 271.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -271.3 544.6 -295.0 49 12

2007 880.3 282.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 -282.8 853.0 -324.3 113 26

2008 1,233.3 293.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 -293.8 1,182.7 -354.4 206 46

2009 1,615.9 304.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -304.3 1,533.1 -385.0 329 73

2010 2,029.3 314.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -314.4 1,904.9 -416.3 484 108

2011 2,472.9 323.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -323.3 2,296.8 -447.4 673 151

2012 2,944.8 331.3 0.6 0.7 0.0 -331.2 2,708.5 -478.6 897 203

2013 3,445.6 339.3 1.2 2.5 0.0 -338.0 3,139.5 -509.9 1,132 265

2014 3,975.5 346.9 2.0 5.1 0.0 -343.9 3,589.3 -541.2 1,377 337

2015 4,534.6 354.1 2.8 8.5 0.0 -348.4 4,056.9 -572.2 1,633 420

2016 5,122.4 360.4 3.7 13.7 0.0 -350.5 4,540.2 -601.5 1,900 515

2017 5,739.2 366.5 4.7 20.4 0.0 -350.8 5,037.8 -629.8 2,179 623

2018 6,385.8 372.4 5.7 28.3 0.0 -349.8 5,549.3 -658.2 2,470 744

2019 7,062.9 378.3 6.8 37.6 0.0 -347.6 6,073.7 -686.1 2,773 879

2020 7,770.6 384.2 8.0 48.4 0.0 -343.7 6,610.0 -713.2 3,088 1,031

2021 8,509.3 390.0 9.2 60.5 0.0 -338.7 7,157.1 -739.7 3,417 1,198

2022 9,279.2 395.8 10.5 73.8 0.0 -332.5 7,714.3 -765.7 3,760 1,384

2023 10,080.6 401.6 11.9 88.1 0.0 -325.4 8,280.9 -791.2 4,117 1,587

2024 10,913.6 407.5 13.3 103.8 0.0 -317.0 8,855.8 -816.1 4,488 1,811

2025 11,778.1 413.3 14.9 120.7 0.0 -307.5 9,438.3 -840.4 4,874 2,054

2026 12,674.2 419.1 16.5 138.8 0.0 -296.9 10,027.3 -863.9 5,276 2,320

2027 13,601.7 425.1 18.2 158.6 0.0 -284.7 10,621.3 -886.1 5,693 2,608

2028 14,560.4 431.1 19.8 180.1 0.0 -270.8 11,218.9 -906.9 6,128 2,921

2029 15,550.2 437.3 21.4 202.7 0.0 -256.0 11,819.1 -927.0 6,579 3,259

2030 16,570.6 443.6 23.0 226.5 0.0 -240.1 12,420.9 -946.1 7,049 3,623

2031 17,621.2 450.0 24.5 251.2 0.0 -223.3 13,023.6 -964.4 7,537 4,015

2032 18,701.3 456.6 26.0 277.0 0.0 -205.5 13,626.0 -981.7 8,044 4,436

2033 19,810.1 463.2 27.4 303.8 0.0 -186.9 14,227.2 -998.1 8,571 4,887

2034 20,946.7 469.9 28.8 331.4 0.0 -167.3 14,826.3 -1,013.5 9,118 5,370

2035 22,110.0 476.7 30.8 360.0 0.0 -147.5 15,423.0 -1,028.6 9,687 5,886

2036 23,298.7 483.5 32.7 389.5 0.0 -126.8 16,016.3 -1,042.5 10,277 6,436

2037 24,511.2 490.5 34.6 420.0 0.0 -105.1 16,605.1 -1,055.2 10,890 7,022

2038 25,746.1 497.4 36.4 451.4 0.0 -82.4 17,188.1 -1,066.7 11,526 7,645

2039 27,001.3 504.5 38.1 484.0 0.0 -58.6 17,764.2 -1,076.7 12,186 8,307

2040 28,274.8 511.6 39.7 517.8 0.0 -33.5 18,331.6 -1,084.8 12,871 9,009

2041 29,564.1 518.7 41.2 553.1 0.0 -6.8 18,888.5 -1,090.9 13,581 9,752

2042 30,866.7 525.9 42.5 590.1 0.0 21.6 19,432.9 -1,094.5 14,318 10,538

2043 32,179.5 533.1 43.8 628.7 0.0 51.8 19,962.5 -1,095.6 15,082 11,368

2044 33,499.4 540.4 44.8 669.3 0.0 84.0 20,474.8 -1,093.7 15,874 12,243

2045 34,822.6 547.7 46.7 711.6 0.0 117.2 20,968.4 -1,089.9 16,695 13,166

2046 36,148.3 555.1 48.4 755.9 0.0 152.4 21,440.4 -1,082.8 17,546 14,137

2047 37,472.5 562.4 50.0 801.9 0.0 189.5 21,888.4 -1,072.5 18,428 15,158

2048 38,790.5 569.9 51.4 849.1 0.0 227.8 22,310.5 -1,059.5 19,342 16,230

2049 40,091.3 577.4 52.9 897.4 0.0 267.1 22,704.7 -1,044.1 20,288 17,354

2050 41,371.4 585.0 54.2 946.6 0.0 307.5 23,069.2 -1,025.8 21,269 18,531

2051 42,630.5 592.6 55.0 996.7 0.0 349.1 23,401.7 -1,004.5 22,284 19,763

2052 43,865.5 600.4 55.6 1,047.1 0.0 391.2 23,700.8 -980.7 23,336 21,051

2053 45,089.1 608.2 55.2 1,096.9 0.0 433.5 23,965.4 -954.8 24,424 22,397

2054 46,300.2 616.2 54.5 1,146.1 0.0 475.4 24,194.6 -927.3 25,552 23,802

2055 47,497.8 624.2 55.5 1,194.5 6.6 508.2 24,397.0 -907.1 26,719 25,267

2056 48,681.0 632.4 56.2 1,242.3 32.1 521.5 24,591.7 -905.3 27,927 26,794

2057 49,849.2 640.8 56.9 1,289.3 56.8 534.8 24,778.6 -903.2 29,177 28,386

2058 51,001.6 649.2 57.3 1,334.8 80.5 547.7 24,957.8 -900.9 30,471 30,042

2059 52,137.9 657.8 57.6 1,378.7 103.0 560.4 25,129.4 -898.5 31,810 31,766

2060 53,257.7 666.5 57.6 1,421.2 124.2 572.9 25,293.2 -895.7 33,196 33,559

2061 54,360.8 675.3 57.5 1,462.4 144.2 585.4 25,449.0 -892.5 34,630 35,422

2062 55,447.2 684.2 57.2 1,502.9 163.2 598.3 25,596.2 -888.4 36,113 37,358

2063 56,517.0 693.1 56.7 1,542.7 181.0 611.9 25,733.9 -883.2 37,648 39,368

2064 57,570.7 702.2 56.0 1,581.4 197.5 625.6 25,861.5 -877.1 39,235 41,455

2065 58,608.8 711.4 57.0 1,619.4 211.3 639.7 25,978.5 -870.2 40,877 43,620

2066 59,631.8 720.7 57.9 1,656.9 224.2 654.1 26,084.1 -862.3 42,576 45,865

2067 60,640.7 730.0 58.7 1,694.2 236.3 669.1 26,177.4 -853.1 44,332 48,194

2068 61,636.5 739.5 59.4 1,731.5 247.9 684.6 26,257.6 -842.6 46,148 50,608

2069 62,620.4 749.1 60.1 1,768.1 258.6 700.4 26,323.9 -831.1 48,025 53,109

2070 63,593.4 758.7 60.7 1,804.4 268.5 716.6 26,375.6 -818.4 49,967 55,700

2071 64,557.1 768.5 61.2 1,840.3 277.6 733.1 26,411.8 -804.4 51,974 58,384

2072 65,512.8 778.3 61.6 1,875.9 286.1 749.8 26,431.9 -789.3 54,048 61,163

2073 66,461.9 788.3 61.9 1,911.2 294.1 766.9 26,434.9 -772.9 56,193 64,039

2074 67,405.9 798.3 62.2 1,946.2 301.5 784.2 26,420.3 -755.3 58,409 67,017

2075 68,346.2 808.5 62.4 1,981.1 308.5 801.7 26,387.1 -736.3 60,700 70,099

2076 69,284.2 818.8 62.6 2,015.9 315.1 819.5 26,334.7 -716.1 63,067 73,287

2077 70,221.1 829.2 62.6 2,050.6 321.4 837.3 26,262.2 -694.6 65,513 76,586

2078 71,158.2 839.7 62.7 2,085.2 327.4 855.5 26,169.0 -671.7 68,041 79,998

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report Ultimate Real Yield Rate of IA 5.2

 With Ult Real Int Rate of 3.0 TF, Annuity Yield 5.2

Office of the Actuary

1/ General Fund Transfers to the Trust Funds have no effect on Social Security Administration

 the Unified Budget. See memorandum for discussion. Revised -- December 8, 2003
Table 1 c OASDI Cash Flow to General Fund of the Treasury---Ferrara Proposal vs. Theoretical OASDI

In Billions of Dollars

% of % of

Pyrl Current $ PV Jan 1, 03 Const 2003$ Pyrl Current $ PV Jan 1, 03 Const 2003$

2003 1.8 78 76 78 1.8 78 76 78

2004 1.8 84 77 82 1.8 84 77 82

2005 -3.4 -167 -144 -159 2.0 95 82 91

2006 -3.7 -189 -154 -175 2.0 104 84 96

2007 -3.8 -204 -156 -183 2.0 111 85 100

2008 -3.9 -224 -161 -195 2.0 113 82 99

2009 -4.1 -247 -167 -209 1.9 113 77 96

2010 -4.3 -272 -173 -223 1.8 111 71 91

2011 -4.5 -298 -179 -237 1.6 108 65 86

2012 -4.7 -328 -185 -254 1.4 100 56 77

2013 -5.0 -362 -193 -272 1.2 88 47 66

2014 -5.3 -398 -200 -290 1.0 73 37 53

2015 -5.5 -436 -206 -309 0.7 55 26 39

2016 -5.8 -477 -212 -328 0.4 33 15 23

2017 -6.0 -519 -218 -346 0.1 7 3 4

2018 -6.2 -563 -223 -365 -0.3 -23 -9 -15

2019 -6.4 -608 -227 -382 -0.6 -56 -21 -35

2020 -6.6 -655 -230 -400 -0.9 -92 -33 -56

2021 -6.8 -704 -233 -417 -1.3 -133 -44 -79

2022 -7.0 -753 -235 -434 -1.6 -176 -55 -101

2023 -7.1 -800 -235 -447 -1.9 -218 -64 -122

2024 -7.2 -846 -235 -459 -2.2 -263 -73 -143

2025 -7.3 -893 -234 -470 -2.5 -310 -81 -163

2026 -7.3 -937 -231 -480 -2.8 -358 -88 -183

2027 -7.3 -980 -228 -487 -3.1 -409 -95 -203

2028 -7.3 -1,021 -224 -492 -3.3 -461 -101 -222

2029 -7.2 -1,058 -219 -495 -3.5 -513 -106 -240

2030 -7.2 -1,092 -213 -496 -3.7 -565 -110 -257

2031 -7.0 -1,121 -206 -495 -3.9 -617 -113 -272

2032 -6.9 -1,146 -198 -491 -4.0 -669 -116 -286

2033 -6.7 -1,166 -190 -485 -4.1 -719 -117 -299

2034 -6.5 -1,181 -182 -477 -4.2 -770 -118 -311

2035 -6.3 -1,192 -173 -467 -4.3 -819 -119 -321

2036 -6.0 -1,198 -164 -456 -4.4 -869 -119 -331

2037 -5.8 -1,198 -154 -443 -4.4 -917 -118 -339

2038 -5.5 -1,191 -145 -427 -4.5 -966 -117 -347

2039 -5.2 -1,178 -135 -410 -4.5 -1,015 -116 -353

2040 -4.9 -1,158 -125 -392 -4.5 -1,065 -115 -360

2041 -4.6 -1,131 -115 -372 -4.5 -1,117 -113 -367

2042 -4.3 -1,097 -105 -350 -4.5 -1,171 -112 -373

2043 -3.9 -1,056 -95 -327 -4.6 -1,230 -111 -381

2044 -3.6 -1,006 -86 -302 -4.6 -1,292 -110 -388

2045 -3.2 -950 -76 -277 -4.6 -1,360 -109 -397

2046 -2.9 -886 -67 -251 -4.7 -1,433 -108 -406

2047 -2.5 -812 -58 -223 -4.7 -1,510 -108 -415

2048 -2.2 -730 -49 -195 -4.8 -1,593 -107 -425

2049 -1.8 -640 -41 -166 -4.8 -1,681 -106 -436

2050 -1.5 -543 -32 -137 -4.9 -1,776 -106 -447

2051 -1.2 -438 -25 -107 -5.0 -1,878 -106 -459

2052 -0.8 -327 -17 -78 -5.0 -1,989 -105 -472

2053 -0.5 -210 -10 -48 -5.1 -2,105 -105 -485

2054 -0.2 -88 -4 -20 -5.2 -2,227 -105 -498

2055 0.0 -1 0 0 -5.2 -2,356 -105 -511

2056 0.0 -1 0 0 -5.3 -2,490 -104 -525

2057 0.0 -1 0 0 -5.4 -2,630 -104 -538

2058 0.0 -1 0 0 -5.4 -2,775 -103 -551

2059 0.0 -1 0 0 -5.5 -2,924 -103 -564

2060 0.0 -1 0 0 -5.5 -3,079 -102 -577

2061 0.0 -1 0 0 -5.6 -3,240 -101 -589

2062 0.0 -1 0 0 -5.6 -3,411 -100 -602

2063 0.0 -2 0 0 -5.7 -3,592 -99 -616

2064 0.0 -2 0 0 -5.7 -3,782 -99 -629

2065 0.0 -2 0 0 -5.8 -3,984 -98 -644

2066 0.0 -2 0 0 -5.8 -4,196 -97 -658

2067 0.0 -2 0 0 -5.9 -4,422 -97 -673

2068 0.0 -2 0 0 -6.0 -4,660 -96 -689

2069 0.0 -2 0 0 -6.0 -4,910 -95 -705

2070 0.0 -2 0 0 -6.1 -5,175 -95 -721

2071 0.0 -2 0 0 -6.1 -5,453 -94 -738

2072 0.0 -2 0 0 -6.2 -5,745 -93 -755

2073 0.0 -2 0 0 -6.3 -6,051 -93 -772

2074 0.0 -2 0 0 -6.3 -6,373 -92 -789

2075 0.0 -2 0 0 -6.4 -6,711 -91 -807

2076 0.0 -2 0 0 -6.4 -7,065 -91 -825

2077 0.0 -3 0 0 -6.5 -7,435 -90 -842

2078 0.0 -3 0 0 -6.6 -7,825 -89 -861

Total 2003-77 -7,613 -4,922

1/ Equals net investment in special Treasury Bonds by the 

 Trust Funds less the Amount of General Fund transfers Office of the Actuary

 included in the proposal (Ferrara) or in the theoretical Social Security Administration

 plan (PAYGO Transfers). December 1, 2003

Billions of Dollars --- Billions of Dollars ---

Ferrara Proposal

Net Amount of Cash-Flow from the OASDI 

Trust Funds to the General Fund of the

 Treasury During the Year 1/

 Theoretical Social Security with PAYGO Transfers

 Net Amount of Cash-Flow from the OASDI 

 Trust Funds to the General Fund of the

 Treasury During the Year 1/
Table 1 d Ferrara Proposal --Specified and Total General Fund Transfers to the OASDI Trust Funds

Specified GF Trans: Specified

Proj GDP Cut in Fed Govt Transfer from Reverse Cumulative

with 1% less spend assumed= GF to TF for Transfer Net Transfer Billions of Percent Percent

Projected growth for 2005- 20% Corp Tax TF to GF, for from the GF PV$ 1-1-03 of GDP of Pyrl

GDP 2012 of diff {(1)-(2)} Recapture AnnBal 1/ =(3)+(4)-(5) cum = (3)+(4)-(5)

Year (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

2004 10,531 10,531 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0

2005 10,494 10,441 11 3 14 14 0.1 0.3

2006 10,456 10,299 31 7 52 38 0.4 0.9

2007 10,407 10,149 52 11 115 63 0.6 1.5

2008 10,334 9,977 71 16 202 87 0.8 2.1

2009 10,247 9,794 91 20 313 111 1.1 2.7

2010 10,150 9,604 109 25 446 134 1.3 3.3

2011 10,047 9,412 127 29 602 156 1.6 3.9

2012 9,935 9,214 144 34 780 178 1.8 4.6

2013 9,818 9,105 143 38 961 181 1.8 4.7

2014 9,696 8,992 141 43 1,144 184 1.9 4.8

2015 9,571 8,876 139 47 1,331 186 1.9 5.0

2016 9,443 8,757 137 52 1,520 189 2.0 5.1

2017 9,319 8,643 135 56 1,711 192 2.1 5.3

2018 9,195 8,527 134 61 1,905 194 2.1 5.4

2019 9,074 8,415 132 65 2,102 197 2.2 5.6

2020 8,951 8,301 130 70 2,302 200 2.2 5.7

2021 8,830 8,189 128 74 2,505 202 2.3 5.9

2022 8,709 8,077 126 79 2,710 205 2.4 6.1

2023 8,589 7,965 125 83 2,917 208 2.4 6.3

2024 8,469 7,854 123 87 3,128 210 2.5 6.4

2025 8,350 7,744 121 91 3,340 213 2.5 6.6

2026 8,234 7,636 120 95 3,555 215 2.6 6.8

2027 8,120 7,531 118 99 3,773 217 2.7 7.0

2028 8,009 7,428 116 103 3,992 220 2.7 7.2

2029 7,900 7,327 115 107 3.2 4,211 219 2.8 7.2

2030 7,793 7,228 113 111 11.5 4,423 212 2.7 7.2

2031 7,689 7,131 112 114 20.4 4,629 206 2.7 7.0

2032 7,586 7,035 110 118 29.7 4,827 198 2.6 6.9

2033 7,484 6,941 109 121 39.7 5,017 190 2.5 6.7

2034 7,384 6,848 107 124 50.0 5,199 181 2.5 6.5

2035 7,285 6,756 106 127 60.5 5,371 173 2.4 6.3

2036 7,187 6,665 104 130 71.0 5,535 164 2.3 6.0

2037 7,090 6,575 103 133 81.7 5,689 154 2.2 5.8

2038 6,994 6,486 102 135 92.5 5,833 144 2.1 5.5

2039 6,899 6,398 100 138 103.3 5,968 135 2.0 5.2

2040 6,804 6,310 99 140 114.0 6,093 125 1.8 4.9

2041 6,710 6,223 97 142 124.5 6,208 115 1.7 4.6

2042 6,617 6,136 96 144 135.0 6,313 105 1.6 4.3

2043 6,524 6,050 95 146 145.0 6,408 95 1.5 3.9

2044 6,432 5,965 93 147 154.8 6,494 86 1.3 3.6

2045 6,340 5,880 92 148 164.2 6,570 76 1.2 3.2

2046 6,249 5,796 91 149 173.2 6,637 67 1.1 2.9

2047 6,159 5,712 89 150 181.8 6,695 58 0.9 2.5

2048 6,070 5,629 88 151 190.0 6,743 49 0.8 2.2

2049 5,982 5,548 87 151 197.5 6,784 40 0.7 1.8

2050 5,895 5,467 86 151 204.5 6,816 32 0.5 1.5

2051 5,809 5,387 84 151 211.0 6,841 25 0.4 1.2

2052 5,724 5,308 83 151 216.8 6,858 17 0.3 0.8

2053 5,640 5,230 82 150 222.0 6,868 10 0.2 0.5

2054 5,558 5,154 81 150 226.4 6,873 4 0.1 0.2

2055 5,476 5,079 80 149 228.7 6,873 0 0.0 0.0

2056 5,397 5,005 78 148 226.7 6,873 0 0.0 0.0

2057 5,319 4,932 77 147 224.6 6,873 0 0.0 0.0

2058 5,242 4,861 76 146 222.4 6,873 0 0.0 0.0

2059 5,166 4,791 75 145 220.2 6,873 0 0.0 0.0

2060 5,091 4,721 74 144 217.8 6,873 0 0.0 0.0

2061 5,017 4,653 73 142 215.3 6,873 0 0.0 0.0

2062 4,944 4,585 72 141 212.8 6,873 0 0.0 0.0

2063 4,873 4,519 71 139 210.2 6,873 0 0.0 0.0

2064 4,802 4,453 70 138 207.6 6,873 0 0.0 0.0

2065 4,732 4,388 69 136 204.9 6,873 0 0.0 0.0

2066 4,663 4,324 68 134 202.2 6,873 0 0.0 0.0

2067 4,594 4,261 67 133 199.4 6,873 0 0.0 0.0

2068 4,527 4,198 66 131 196.6 6,873 0 0.0 0.0

2069 4,460 4,136 65 129 193.8 6,873 0 0.0 0.0

2070 4,394 4,075 64 127 191.0 6,873 0 0.0 0.0

2071 4,329 4,015 63 125 188.2 6,873 0 0.0 0.0

2072 4,265 3,955 62 123 185.4 6,873 0 0.0 0.0

2073 4,202 3,897 61 122 182.6 6,873 0 0.0 0.0

2074 4,139 3,839 60 120 179.8 6,873 0 0.0 0.0

2075 4,078 3,782 59 118 177.0 6,873 0 0.0 0.0

2076 4,017 3,725 58 116 174.2 6,873 0 0.0 0.0

2077 3,957 3,670 57 114 171.5 6,873 0 0.0 0.0

2078 3,898 3,615 57 112 168.8 6,873 0 0.0 0.0

Total: 2003-77 6,791 7,939 7,857.4

Office of the Actuary

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration

1/ Limit reverse transfer to total of specified and recapture transfers. December 1, 2003

Proposal Net Annual Transfers

 from the GF to the TF

(billions of PV$ 1/1/2003)
Table 2 Ferrara Prop--LowExpAnnYld, Incrs GF Trans for spend cut thru 2015 IA Cntrb 6.4 %, Ben Offset 100.0 % 

 With Ult Real TF Int Rate of 3.0 CorpTax toTF as%of Pre Change Cut in

 With Ult Real IA Yld Rate of 2.75 tax IA RealYld 23.9 in OASDI Effective Contrib IA Contrib

 With Annuity Net Yld Rate 2.75 Net GF Trans Effective OASDI Rate for Rate---

Cost Income Annual TFR to TF 1/ Contrib Contrib Annual Redirected

Year Rate Rate 1/ Balance 1-1-yr (%ofPyrl) Rate Rate 2/ Balance from PyrlTax

2003 10.89 12.70 1.81 288 12.40 0

2004 10.82 12.69 1.88 309 12.40 0

2005 10.73 7.62 -3.11 330 0.30 -5.38 7.02 5.38

2006 10.65 7.85 -2.80 305 0.86 -0.32 6.69 5.71

2007 10.67 8.31 -2.35 281 1.41 -0.11 6.59 5.81

2008 10.73 8.78 -1.95 260 1.96 -0.10 6.49 5.91

2009 10.84 9.26 -1.59 243 2.51 -0.09 6.40 6.00

2010 10.99 9.74 -1.25 228 3.06 -0.08 6.32 6.08

2011 11.16 10.27 -0.90 216 3.60 -0.06 6.26 6.14

2012 11.38 10.78 -0.60 207 4.15 -0.05 6.21 6.19

2013 11.62 11.29 -0.32 200 4.69 -0.04 6.16 6.24

2014 11.86 11.81 -0.06 196 5.22 -0.04 6.12 6.28

2015 12.12 12.32 0.21 194 5.75 -0.03 6.09 6.31

2016 12.38 12.39 0.01 195 5.82 -0.02 6.07 6.33

2017 12.63 12.46 -0.17 194 5.89 -0.01 6.06 6.34

2018 12.89 12.54 -0.35 192 5.96 -0.01 6.05 6.35

2019 13.12 12.62 -0.50 188 6.03 -0.01 6.04 6.36

2020 13.35 12.70 -0.65 184 6.10 -0.01 6.03 6.37

2021 13.58 12.78 -0.80 179 6.17 -0.01 6.03 6.37

2022 13.78 12.86 -0.92 173 6.24 -0.01 6.02 6.38

2023 13.93 12.93 -1.00 168 6.31 0.00 6.02 6.38

2024 14.06 13.01 -1.05 162 6.38 0.00 6.02 6.38

2025 14.17 13.08 -1.09 156 6.45 0.00 6.01 6.39

2026 14.25 13.16 -1.09 150 6.52 0.00 6.01 6.39

2027 14.30 13.23 -1.07 144 6.59 0.00 6.01 6.39

2028 14.32 13.30 -1.02 139 6.65 0.00 6.01 6.39

2029 14.31 13.37 -0.94 134 6.72 0.00 6.01 6.39

2030 14.26 13.43 -0.83 130 6.78 0.00 6.00 6.40

2031 14.18 13.49 -0.69 127 6.84 0.00 6.00 6.40

2032 14.08 13.55 -0.52 125 6.91 0.00 6.00 6.40

2033 13.94 13.61 -0.33 125 6.97 0.00 6.00 6.40

2034 13.79 13.66 -0.13 125 7.02 0.00 6.00 6.40

2035 13.62 13.62 0.00 128 6.99 0.00 6.00 6.40

2036 13.43 13.43 0.00 132 6.80 0.00 6.00 6.40

2037 13.22 13.22 0.00 136 6.60 0.00 6.00 6.40

2038 13.00 12.99 0.00 140 6.39 0.00 6.00 6.40

2039 12.76 12.76 0.00 145 6.16 0.00 6.00 6.40

2040 12.52 12.51 0.00 150 5.93 0.00 6.00 6.40

2041 12.26 12.27 0.00 156 5.70 0.00 6.00 6.40

2042 12.00 12.00 0.00 162 5.44 0.00 6.00 6.40

2043 11.74 11.74 0.00 168 5.19 0.00 6.00 6.40

2044 11.47 11.46 0.00 175 4.93 0.00 6.00 6.40

2045 11.19 11.19 0.00 182 4.67 0.00 6.00 6.40

2046 10.92 10.91 0.00 190 4.41 0.00 6.00 6.40

2047 10.63 10.63 0.00 198 4.14 0.00 6.00 6.40

2048 10.36 10.36 0.00 206 3.88 0.00 6.00 6.40

2049 10.09 10.09 0.00 215 3.62 0.00 6.00 6.40

2050 9.84 9.83 0.00 224 3.38 0.00 6.00 6.40

2051 9.58 9.59 0.00 234 3.15 0.00 6.00 6.40

2052 9.34 9.34 0.00 244 2.92 0.00 6.00 6.40

2053 9.10 9.10 0.00 255 2.68 0.00 6.00 6.40

2054 8.88 8.88 0.00 266 2.47 0.00 6.00 6.40

2055 8.66 8.66 0.00 277 2.27 0.00 6.00 6.40

2056 8.45 8.45 0.00 288 2.07 0.00 6.00 6.40

2057 8.26 8.27 0.00 300 1.90 0.00 6.00 6.40

2058 8.09 8.09 0.00 311 1.72 0.00 6.00 6.40

2059 7.93 7.93 0.00 323 1.57 0.00 6.00 6.40

2060 7.79 7.79 0.00 334 1.44 0.00 6.00 6.40

2061 7.67 7.67 0.00 345 1.33 0.00 6.00 6.40

2062 7.56 7.56 0.00 355 1.22 0.00 6.00 6.40

2063 7.47 7.46 0.00 366 1.13 0.00 6.00 6.40

2064 7.39 7.39 0.00 376 1.06 0.00 6.00 6.40

2065 7.31 7.31 0.00 386 0.99 0.00 6.00 6.40

2066 7.25 7.25 0.00 396 0.93 0.00 6.00 6.40

2067 7.20 7.20 0.00 405 0.88 0.00 6.00 6.40

2068 7.15 7.15 0.00 415 0.84 0.00 6.00 6.40

2069 7.11 7.10 0.00 424 0.79 0.00 6.00 6.40

2070 7.07 7.07 0.00 434 0.76 0.00 6.00 6.40

2071 7.05 7.05 0.00 443 0.73 0.00 6.00 6.40

2072 7.03 7.02 0.00 451 0.71 0.00 6.00 6.40

2073 7.01 7.01 0.00 460 0.70 0.00 6.00 6.40

2074 7.00 7.00 0.00 469 0.69 0.00 6.00 6.40

2075 6.99 6.99 0.00 477 0.68 0.00 6.00 6.40

2076 6.99 6.98 0.00 486 0.68 0.00 6.00 6.40

2077 6.98 6.98 0.00 494 0.67 0.00 6.00 6.40

2078 6.98 6.98 0.00 502 0.68 0.00 6.00 6.40

 Summarized

CostRt IncRt ActBal Change in

2003 OASDI OASDI OASDI ActBal

-2077 11.34 11.54 0.20 2.11

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report

 With Ult Real Int Rate of 3.00 Office of the Actuary

1/ Includes Specified and CorpTax-based GF Transfers (see table 2.d) Social Security Administration

2/ Net payroll tax rate to the Trust Funds; reduced by amount redirected for IA contribution, and cut for 100% TFR December 1, 2003
Table 2 a OASDI Trust Fund under Proposal (Cash Reserve and Assets Net of Borrowing from IAs), Individual Account Assets, and Theoretical OASDI Assets

Proposal General Fund Transfers Accumulated Total OASDI Individual

Specified for Corp Reverse GF Transfers Trust Fund Account

Calendar Slowed FedGov Tax Tran for at End of Assets Assets 1/ Without GF With GF Transfer

Year Spending Recap Ann Balance Year at End of Yr at End of Yr Transfer (amount for Ferrara)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

Billions of Constant 2003 Dollars Billions of Constant 2003 Dollars

2003 0 0 0 0 1,543 0 1,543 1,543

2004 0 0 0 0 1,683 0 1,683 1,683

2005 12 2 0 14 1,590 257 1,833 1,847

2006 36 5 0 57 1,502 543 1,990 2,046

2007 61 8 0 129 1,430 850 2,154 2,283

2008 87 11 0 234 1,374 1,177 2,323 2,557

2009 113 14 0 373 1,333 1,524 2,493 2,866

2010 141 18 0 547 1,307 1,891 2,664 3,212

2011 169 21 0 760 1,298 2,277 2,835 3,595

2012 198 25 0 1,012 1,304 2,679 3,001 4,013

2013 227 28 0 1,306 1,325 3,097 3,161 4,466

2014 257 32 0 1,643 1,362 3,530 3,312 4,954

2015 287 36 0 2,025 1,415 3,978 3,452 5,477

2016 292 40 0 2,428 1,458 4,439 3,579 6,007

2017 297 44 0 2,851 1,491 4,912 3,691 6,542

2018 302 48 0 3,297 1,514 5,399 3,786 7,083

2019 307 52 0 3,765 1,529 5,898 3,863 7,628

2020 311 57 0 4,258 1,533 6,409 3,921 8,178

2021 316 61 0 4,775 1,529 6,931 3,956 8,731

2022 321 66 0 5,317 1,515 7,465 3,971 9,288

2023 327 71 0 5,886 1,496 8,010 3,964 9,850

2024 332 76 0 6,482 1,471 8,565 3,936 10,418

2025 337 81 0 7,107 1,443 9,130 3,885 10,992

2026 342 86 0 7,760 1,412 9,704 3,813 11,573

2027 348 91 0 8,444 1,380 10,287 3,718 12,162

2028 353 96 0 9,160 1,351 10,879 3,601 12,760

2029 359 101 0 9,908 1,325 11,478 3,461 13,369

2030 364 106 0 10,690 1,305 12,085 3,300 13,990

2031 370 111 0 11,506 1,294 12,698 3,119 14,625

2032 376 117 0 12,359 1,294 13,317 2,917 15,276

2033 382 122 0 13,249 1,308 13,942 2,696 15,946

2034 389 127 0 14,178 1,338 14,572 2,457 16,635

2035 395 133 7 15,140 1,378 15,205 2,200 17,340

2036 401 138 25 16,124 1,419 15,842 1,925 18,049

2037 408 143 45 17,128 1,461 16,481 1,634 18,762

2038 414 149 66 18,154 1,505 17,122 1,326 19,480

2039 421 154 89 19,199 1,549 17,764 1,001 20,200

2040 428 159 113 20,263 1,595 18,405 661 20,924

2041 434 165 137 21,347 1,643 19,045 303 21,649

2042 441 170 164 22,447 1,692 19,683 -73 22,374

2043 448 175 191 23,566 1,743 20,318 -467 23,099

2044 455 180 219 24,702 1,795 20,948 -881 23,820

2045 462 185 247 25,855 1,848 21,573 -1,316 24,538

2046 469 190 277 27,024 1,903 22,192 -1,774 25,250

2047 476 195 308 28,210 1,960 22,805 -2,255 25,954

2048 483 200 338 29,412 2,018 23,409 -2,761 26,651

2049 491 205 368 30,631 2,078 24,002 -3,292 27,339

2050 498 210 398 31,868 2,140 24,582 -3,851 28,017

2051 505 214 428 33,124 2,205 25,151 -4,440 28,685

2052 513 218 458 34,400 2,271 25,709 -5,059 29,341

2053 520 223 488 35,695 2,338 26,259 -5,710 29,985

2054 528 227 517 37,011 2,409 26,804 -6,394 30,616

2055 536 231 546 38,349 2,481 27,341 -7,113 31,236

2056 544 236 575 39,710 2,555 27,873 -7,867 31,843

2057 552 240 603 41,097 2,632 28,398 -8,657 32,439

2058 561 244 630 42,509 2,710 28,918 -9,485 33,025

2059 569 248 656 43,951 2,790 29,433 -10,350 33,601

2060 578 252 680 45,424 2,873 29,943 -11,255 34,170

2061 587 256 703 46,932 2,959 30,448 -12,199 34,732

2062 595 260 725 48,474 3,048 30,949 -13,185 35,289

2063 604 264 746 50,054 3,139 31,447 -14,215 35,840

2064 613 268 765 51,676 3,233 31,941 -15,289 36,387

2065 623 272 785 53,339 3,329 32,433 -16,411 36,928

2066 632 276 804 55,047 3,428 32,922 -17,581 37,466

2067 641 280 821 56,802 3,531 33,410 -18,802 38,000

2068 651 284 838 58,605 3,637 33,896 -20,076 38,530

2069 661 288 856 60,458 3,745 34,382 -21,404 39,055

2070 670 292 872 62,365 3,858 34,868 -22,789 39,577

2071 680 296 888 64,327 3,973 35,354 -24,232 40,095

2072 690 300 903 66,346 4,091 35,841 -25,736 40,610

2073 700 304 918 68,425 4,214 36,329 -27,303 41,122

2074 711 308 933 70,567 4,340 36,820 -28,935 41,632

2075 721 312 947 72,772 4,470 37,312 -30,634 42,138

2076 732 316 961 75,044 4,603 37,808 -32,402 42,642

2077 742 320 975 77,386 4,741 38,306 -34,242 43,144

2078 753 324 989 79,798 4,883 38,808 -36,156 43,643

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report.

1/ Including annuity assets, assuming all annuitize fully. Office of the Actuary

2/ Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption Social Security Administration

 that the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury. Revised -- December 8, 2003

Theoretical Social Security 2/

with Borrowing Authority;

Net OASDI TF Assets End of Yr 
Table 2 b IA Assets & Contributions, OASI Benefit Changes, & Total Unified Budget Effect--Plus Cumulative GF Transfers 1/

Ave IA Cntrb 6.4 %, Benefit Offset 100.0 %

IA+Annuity Amount Cost to guar Cut in Change Change in Change Cumulative Transfers

Balance Contrib to IA: OASDI +IA OASI Benefit Contrib in Annual Debt Held by in Ann Based on Based on

at End of % by Fed Gov benefits at Cut for IA Rate for UnifBudg the Public UnifBudg Fed Spending CorpTax

 Year Year 100 PLSched Participation AnnBal CashFlow (EOY) Balance Slowdown 1/ Recap 1/

 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

 (Billions of Constant 2003$)

2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0

2005 256.6 249.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -249.3 256.9 -256.9 12 2

2006 543.3 271.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -271.3 544.6 -295.0 49 8

2007 850.0 282.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 -282.8 853.0 -324.3 113 16

2008 1,177.0 293.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 -293.8 1,182.7 -354.4 206 28

2009 1,524.0 304.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -304.3 1,533.1 -385.0 329 44

2010 1,891.3 314.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -314.4 1,904.9 -416.3 484 63

2011 2,277.3 323.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 -323.3 2,296.8 -447.4 673 87

2012 2,679.4 331.3 1.1 0.7 0.0 -331.7 2,709.1 -479.2 897 115

2013 3,097.3 339.3 2.4 2.5 0.0 -339.2 3,141.4 -511.2 1,158 147

2014 3,530.4 346.9 3.8 5.0 0.0 -345.7 3,593.1 -543.2 1,458 185

2015 3,977.9 354.1 5.4 8.4 0.0 -351.1 4,063.6 -575.1 1,798 227

2016 4,438.8 360.4 7.1 13.5 0.0 -354.0 4,550.7 -605.5 2,153 275

2017 4,912.3 366.5 9.1 20.2 0.0 -355.5 5,053.4 -635.2 2,523 328

2018 5,398.7 372.4 11.3 28.0 0.0 -355.7 5,571.3 -665.1 2,909 388

2019 5,897.5 378.3 13.7 37.2 0.0 -354.8 6,104.0 -694.9 3,312 453

2020 6,408.5 384.2 16.4 48.0 0.0 -352.6 6,650.2 -724.1 3,733 525

2021 6,931.1 390.0 19.3 60.1 0.0 -349.3 7,209.5 -753.0 4,171 604

2022 7,465.1 395.8 22.5 73.2 0.0 -345.1 7,781.2 -781.7 4,627 690

2023 8,009.8 401.6 25.9 87.5 0.0 -340.0 8,364.8 -810.3 5,102 784

2024 8,564.9 407.5 29.5 103.0 0.0 -333.9 8,959.7 -838.5 5,597 886

2025 9,129.9 413.3 33.4 119.8 0.0 -326.9 9,565.2 -866.4 6,111 995

2026 9,704.2 419.1 37.5 137.8 0.0 -318.9 10,180.6 -894.0 6,647 1,113

2027 10,287.4 425.1 41.9 157.4 0.0 -309.5 10,804.9 -920.8 7,204 1,240

2028 10,878.9 431.1 46.5 178.8 0.0 -298.9 11,436.8 -946.7 7,784 1,376

2029 11,478.2 437.3 51.4 201.2 0.0 -287.5 12,076.0 -972.3 8,387 1,521

2030 12,084.8 443.6 56.5 224.8 0.0 -275.3 12,721.9 -997.6 9,014 1,675

2031 12,698.0 450.0 62.0 249.4 0.0 -262.6 13,374.0 -1,022.7 9,666 1,840

2032 13,317.4 456.6 67.6 274.9 0.0 -249.2 14,032.0 -1,047.5 10,344 2,016

2033 13,942.2 463.2 73.6 301.4 0.0 -235.3 14,695.3 -1,072.0 11,048 2,202

2034 14,571.8 469.9 79.8 328.8 0.0 -220.8 15,363.6 -1,096.3 11,780 2,399

2035 15,205.4 476.7 86.8 357.1 0.0 -206.3 16,037.0 -1,120.9 12,540 2,607

2036 15,842.1 483.5 94.1 386.4 0.0 -191.3 16,715.2 -1,145.2 13,329 2,827

2037 16,481.3 490.5 101.8 416.5 0.0 -175.8 17,397.6 -1,169.3 14,149 3,060

2038 17,122.1 497.4 109.9 447.6 0.0 -159.7 18,084.0 -1,193.1 15,000 3,305

2039 17,763.7 504.5 118.3 479.9 0.0 -142.9 18,773.8 -1,216.4 15,884 3,562

2040 18,405.0 511.6 127.0 513.3 0.0 -125.3 19,466.0 -1,239.1 16,801 3,833

2041 19,045.1 518.7 136.1 548.2 0.0 -106.6 20,159.9 -1,260.8 17,752 4,118

2042 19,683.0 525.9 145.6 584.7 0.0 -86.8 20,854.1 -1,281.4 18,739 4,416

2043 20,317.7 533.1 155.4 622.9 0.0 -65.7 21,547.4 -1,300.7 19,763 4,729

2044 20,948.0 540.4 165.7 662.9 0.0 -43.2 22,238.2 -1,318.5 20,824 5,057

2045 21,572.9 547.7 176.5 704.8 0.0 -19.5 22,925.4 -1,334.9 21,925 5,400

2046 22,192.1 555.1 187.4 748.6 0.0 6.1 23,606.9 -1,349.2 23,065 5,758

2047 22,804.5 562.4 198.7 794.0 0.0 32.8 24,281.3 -1,362.0 24,248 6,132

2048 23,408.9 569.9 210.5 840.6 0.0 60.2 24,947.8 -1,373.6 25,473 6,522

2049 24,001.6 577.4 223.6 888.3 0.0 87.3 25,606.2 -1,385.1 26,742 6,928

2050 24,582.2 585.0 236.8 936.9 0.0 115.1 26,255.8 -1,395.4 28,057 7,352

2051 25,151.3 592.6 249.7 986.3 0.0 144.0 26,895.2 -1,404.1 29,419 7,793

2052 25,708.7 600.4 262.7 1,036.0 0.0 172.9 27,523.9 -1,412.1 30,830 8,252

2053 26,259.4 608.2 274.0 1,085.2 0.0 203.0 28,140.6 -1,418.3 32,291 8,729

2054 26,803.5 616.2 285.3 1,133.7 0.0 232.3 28,745.6 -1,424.6 33,804 9,225

2055 27,341.2 624.2 295.9 1,181.6 0.0 261.5 29,338.6 -1,430.3 35,371 9,740

2056 27,872.7 632.4 306.5 1,228.9 0.0 289.9 29,920.2 -1,436.1 36,992 10,275

2057 28,398.4 640.8 317.0 1,275.3 0.0 317.5 30,490.8 -1,442.1 38,671 10,830

2058 28,918.4 649.2 327.5 1,320.2 0.0 343.5 31,051.7 -1,449.0 40,409 11,406

2059 29,433.1 657.8 337.8 1,363.6 0.0 368.0 31,604.2 -1,457.0 42,207 12,004

2060 29,942.9 666.5 348.0 1,405.5 0.0 391.1 32,149.6 -1,465.9 44,069 12,624

2061 30,448.2 675.3 358.1 1,446.1 0.0 412.8 32,688.9 -1,475.7 45,995 13,267

2062 30,949.4 684.2 368.1 1,486.0 0.0 433.8 33,222.8 -1,486.0 47,988 13,933

2063 31,446.8 693.1 377.9 1,525.3 0.0 454.2 33,751.6 -1,496.5 50,050 14,623

2064 31,941.1 702.2 387.6 1,563.4 0.0 473.5 34,276.5 -1,507.9 52,183 15,338

2065 32,432.7 711.4 396.8 1,600.9 0.0 492.8 34,797.2 -1,519.1 54,390 16,079

2066 32,922.0 720.7 405.8 1,638.0 0.0 511.5 35,314.3 -1,530.6 56,673 16,846

2067 33,409.6 730.0 414.6 1,674.9 0.0 530.2 35,827.6 -1,541.8 59,034 17,640

2068 33,896.1 739.5 423.2 1,711.7 0.0 548.9 36,337.0 -1,553.0 61,475 18,461

2069 34,381.9 749.1 431.7 1,747.9 0.0 567.1 36,843.0 -1,564.4 64,000 19,312

2070 34,867.7 758.7 440.1 1,783.8 0.0 585.0 37,345.8 -1,575.9 66,610 20,192

2071 35,353.8 768.5 448.3 1,819.2 0.0 602.5 37,845.6 -1,587.5 69,309 21,102

2072 35,840.8 778.3 456.3 1,854.4 0.0 619.7 38,342.6 -1,599.3 72,099 22,044

2073 36,329.3 788.3 464.3 1,889.2 0.0 636.7 38,837.2 -1,611.3 74,983 23,018

2074 36,819.6 798.3 472.1 1,923.8 0.0 653.4 39,329.2 -1,623.3 77,965 24,026

2075 37,312.2 808.5 479.8 1,958.3 0.0 670.0 39,819.0 -1,635.3 81,047 25,068

2076 37,807.6 818.8 487.5 1,992.7 0.0 686.4 40,306.6 -1,647.4 84,231 26,146

2077 38,306.0 829.2 495.1 2,026.9 0.0 702.7 40,792.0 -1,659.4 87,523 27,260

2078 38,808.0 839.7 502.7 2,061.2 0.0 718.8 41,275.4 -1,671.5 90,924 28,411

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report Ultimate Real Yield Rate of IA 2.75

 With Ult Real Int Rate of 3.0 TF, Annuity Yield 2.75

Office of the Actuary

1/ General Fund Transfers to the Trust Funds have no effect on Social Security Administration

 the Unified Budget. See memorandum for discussion. Revised -- December 8, 2003
Table 2 c OASDI Cash Flow to General Fund of the Treasury---Ferrara Proposal vs. Theoretical OASDI

In Billions of Dollars

% of % of

Pyrl Current $ PV Jan 1, 03 Const 2003$ Pyrl Current $ PV Jan 1, 03 Const 2003$

2003 1.8 78 76 78 1.8 78 76 78

2004 1.8 84 77 82 1.8 84 77 82

2005 -3.4 -167 -144 -159 2.0 95 82 91

2006 -3.7 -189 -154 -175 2.0 104 84 96

2007 -3.8 -204 -156 -183 2.0 111 85 100

2008 -3.9 -224 -161 -195 2.0 113 82 99

2009 -4.1 -247 -167 -209 1.9 113 77 96

2010 -4.3 -272 -173 -223 1.8 111 71 91

2011 -4.5 -298 -179 -237 1.6 108 65 86

2012 -4.8 -329 -186 -254 1.4 100 56 77

2013 -5.0 -363 -193 -273 1.2 88 47 66

2014 -5.3 -400 -201 -292 1.0 73 37 53

2015 -5.5 -440 -208 -312 0.7 55 26 39

2016 -5.8 -481 -215 -331 0.4 33 15 23

2017 -6.1 -525 -220 -350 0.1 7 3 4

2018 -6.3 -571 -226 -370 -0.3 -23 -9 -15

2019 -6.5 -618 -231 -389 -0.6 -56 -21 -35

2020 -6.8 -668 -235 -408 -0.9 -92 -33 -56

2021 -7.0 -720 -239 -427 -1.3 -133 -44 -79

2022 -7.2 -773 -241 -445 -1.6 -176 -55 -101

2023 -7.3 -823 -243 -460 -1.9 -218 -64 -122

2024 -7.4 -875 -243 -475 -2.2 -263 -73 -143

2025 -7.5 -926 -242 -488 -2.5 -310 -81 -163

2026 -7.6 -976 -241 -500 -2.8 -358 -88 -183

2027 -7.7 -1,026 -239 -510 -3.1 -409 -95 -203

2028 -7.7 -1,074 -235 -518 -3.3 -461 -101 -222

2029 -7.7 -1,119 -231 -524 -3.5 -513 -106 -240

2030 -7.6 -1,162 -226 -528 -3.7 -565 -110 -257

2031 -7.5 -1,201 -220 -530 -3.9 -617 -113 -272

2032 -7.4 -1,238 -214 -530 -4.0 -669 -116 -286

2033 -7.3 -1,271 -207 -529 -4.1 -719 -117 -299

2034 -7.2 -1,301 -200 -525 -4.2 -770 -118 -311

2035 -7.0 -1,328 -192 -521 -4.3 -819 -119 -321

2036 -6.8 -1,351 -184 -514 -4.4 -869 -119 -331

2037 -6.6 -1,370 -176 -506 -4.4 -917 -118 -339

2038 -6.4 -1,385 -168 -497 -4.5 -966 -117 -347

2039 -6.2 -1,396 -160 -486 -4.5 -1,015 -116 -353

2040 -5.9 -1,403 -151 -474 -4.5 -1,065 -115 -360

2041 -5.7 -1,405 -143 -461 -4.5 -1,117 -113 -367

2042 -5.4 -1,404 -134 -447 -4.5 -1,171 -112 -373

2043 -5.2 -1,397 -126 -433 -4.6 -1,230 -111 -381

2044 -4.9 -1,387 -118 -417 -4.6 -1,292 -110 -388

2045 -4.7 -1,372 -110 -400 -4.6 -1,360 -109 -397

2046 -4.4 -1,351 -102 -383 -4.7 -1,433 -108 -406

2047 -4.1 -1,325 -94 -364 -4.7 -1,510 -108 -415

2048 -3.9 -1,294 -87 -346 -4.8 -1,593 -107 -425

2049 -3.6 -1,263 -80 -328 -4.8 -1,681 -106 -436

2050 -3.4 -1,230 -73 -309 -4.9 -1,776 -106 -447

2051 -3.1 -1,192 -67 -291 -5.0 -1,878 -106 -459

2052 -2.9 -1,154 -61 -274 -5.0 -1,989 -105 -472

2053 -2.7 -1,109 -55 -255 -5.1 -2,105 -105 -485

2054 -2.5 -1,065 -50 -238 -5.2 -2,227 -105 -498

2055 -2.3 -1,019 -45 -221 -5.2 -2,356 -105 -511

2056 -2.1 -972 -41 -205 -5.3 -2,490 -104 -525

2057 -1.9 -926 -37 -190 -5.4 -2,630 -104 -538

2058 -1.7 -883 -33 -175 -5.4 -2,775 -103 -551

2059 -1.6 -842 -30 -162 -5.5 -2,924 -103 -564

2060 -1.4 -805 -27 -151 -5.5 -3,079 -102 -577

2061 -1.3 -772 -24 -140 -5.6 -3,240 -101 -589

2062 -1.2 -743 -22 -131 -5.6 -3,411 -100 -602

2063 -1.1 -718 -20 -123 -5.7 -3,592 -99 -616

2064 -1.1 -699 -18 -116 -5.7 -3,782 -99 -629

2065 -1.0 -683 -17 -110 -5.8 -3,984 -98 -644

2066 -0.9 -670 -16 -105 -5.8 -4,196 -97 -658

2067 -0.9 -660 -14 -100 -5.9 -4,422 -97 -673

2068 -0.8 -652 -13 -96 -6.0 -4,660 -96 -689

2069 -0.8 -648 -13 -93 -6.0 -4,910 -95 -705

2070 -0.8 -650 -12 -91 -6.1 -5,175 -95 -721

2071 -0.7 -655 -11 -89 -6.1 -5,453 -94 -738

2072 -0.7 -665 -11 -87 -6.2 -5,745 -93 -755

2073 -0.7 -679 -10 -87 -6.3 -6,051 -93 -772

2074 -0.7 -697 -10 -86 -6.3 -6,373 -92 -789

2075 -0.7 -719 -10 -86 -6.4 -6,711 -91 -807

2076 -0.7 -745 -10 -87 -6.4 -7,065 -91 -825

2077 -0.7 -774 -9 -88 -6.5 -7,435 -90 -842

2078 -0.7 -808 -9 -89 -6.6 -7,825 -89 -861

Total 2003-77 -8,903 -4,922

1/ Equals net investment in special Treasury Bonds by the 

 Trust Funds less the Amount of General Fund transfers Office of the Actuary

 included in the proposal (Ferrara) or in the theoretical Social Security Administration

 plan (PAYGO Transfers). December 1, 2003

Billions of Dollars --- Billions of Dollars ---

 Theoretical Social Security with PAYGO Transfers

 Net Amount of Cash-Flow from the OASDI 

 Trust Funds to the General Fund of the

 Treasury During the Year 1/

Ferrara Proposal

Net Amount of Cash-Flow from the OASDI 

Trust Funds to the General Fund of the

 Treasury During the Year 1/
Table 2 d Ferrara Proposal --Specified and Total General Fund Transfers to the OASDI Trust Funds

Specified GF Trans: Specified

Proj GDP Cut in Fed Govt Transfer from Reverse Cumulative

with 1% less spend assumed= GF to TF for Transfer Net Transfer Billions of Percent Percent

Projected growth for 2005- 20% Corp Tax TF to GF, for from the GF PV$ 1-1-03 of GDP of Pyrl

GDP 2015 of diff {(1)-(2)} Recapture AnnBal 1/ =(3)+(4)-(5) cum = (3)+(4)-(5)

Year (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

2004 10,531 10,531 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0

2005 10,494 10,441 11 2 13 13 0.1 0.3

2006 10,456 10,299 31 5 49 36 0.3 0.9

2007 10,407 10,149 52 7 107 58 0.6 1.4

2008 10,334 9,977 71 9 188 81 0.8 2.0

2009 10,247 9,794 91 11 290 102 1.0 2.5

2010 10,150 9,604 109 14 412 123 1.2 3.1

2011 10,047 9,412 127 16 555 143 1.4 3.6

2012 9,935 9,214 144 18 717 162 1.6 4.1

2013 9,818 9,014 161 20 898 181 1.8 4.7

2014 9,696 8,813 177 22 1,097 199 2.0 5.2

2015 9,571 8,612 192 24 1,312 216 2.3 5.8

2016 9,443 8,497 189 26 1,527 215 2.3 5.8

2017 9,319 8,386 187 28 1,741 214 2.3 5.9

2018 9,195 8,274 184 29 1,955 213 2.3 6.0

2019 9,074 8,165 182 31 2,168 213 2.3 6.0

2020 8,951 8,055 179 33 2,380 212 2.4 6.1

2021 8,830 7,946 177 34 2,591 211 2.4 6.2

2022 8,709 7,837 174 36 2,801 210 2.4 6.2

2023 8,589 7,729 172 37 3,011 209 2.4 6.3

2024 8,469 7,621 170 39 3,219 208 2.5 6.4

2025 8,350 7,514 167 40 3,426 207 2.5 6.5

2026 8,234 7,409 165 41 3,632 206 2.5 6.5

2027 8,120 7,307 163 42 3,837 205 2.5 6.6

2028 8,009 7,207 160 43 4,041 204 2.5 6.7

2029 7,900 7,109 158 44 4,244 203 2.6 6.7

2030 7,793 7,013 156 45 4,446 202 2.6 6.8

2031 7,689 6,919 154 46 4,646 200 2.6 6.8

2032 7,586 6,826 152 47 4,845 199 2.6 6.9

2033 7,484 6,735 150 48 5,043 198 2.6 7.0

2034 7,384 6,645 148 48 5,239 196 2.7 7.0

2035 7,285 6,555 146 49 2.5 5,431 192 2.6 7.0

2036 7,187 6,467 144 49 9.0 5,616 184 2.6 6.8

2037 7,090 6,380 142 50 15.7 5,792 176 2.5 6.6

2038 6,994 6,294 140 50 22.4 5,960 168 2.4 6.4

2039 6,899 6,208 138 51 29.2 6,119 160 2.3 6.2

2040 6,804 6,123 136 51 36.0 6,270 151 2.2 5.9

2041 6,710 6,038 134 51 42.5 6,413 143 2.1 5.7

2042 6,617 5,954 133 51 49.3 6,548 134 2.0 5.4

2043 6,524 5,870 131 51 55.6 6,674 126 1.9 5.2

2044 6,432 5,788 129 51 62.0 6,792 118 1.8 4.9

2045 6,340 5,705 127 51 68.0 6,902 110 1.7 4.7

2046 6,249 5,623 125 51 74.0 7,004 102 1.6 4.4

2047 6,159 5,542 123 51 79.7 7,098 94 1.5 4.1

2048 6,070 5,462 122 50 85.0 7,185 87 1.4 3.9

2049 5,982 5,383 120 50 90.0 7,265 80 1.3 3.6

2050 5,895 5,305 118 50 94.5 7,338 73 1.2 3.4

2051 5,809 5,227 116 49 98.5 7,405 67 1.2 3.1

2052 5,724 5,150 115 49 102.3 7,466 61 1.1 2.9

2053 5,640 5,075 113 48 106.0 7,522 55 1.0 2.7

2054 5,558 5,001 111 48 109.0 7,572 50 0.9 2.5

2055 5,476 4,928 110 47 111.8 7,617 45 0.8 2.3

2056 5,397 4,856 108 47 114.3 7,658 41 0.8 2.1

2057 5,319 4,786 107 46 116.2 7,694 37 0.7 1.9

2058 5,242 4,717 105 46 118.0 7,727 33 0.6 1.7

2059 5,166 4,648 103 45 119.2 7,756 29 0.6 1.6

2060 5,091 4,581 102 45 120.0 7,783 26 0.5 1.4

2061 5,017 4,515 100 44 120.4 7,807 24 0.5 1.3

2062 4,944 4,449 99 43 120.6 7,829 22 0.4 1.2

2063 4,873 4,385 98 43 120.5 7,848 20 0.4 1.1

2064 4,802 4,321 96 42 120.0 7,867 18 0.4 1.1

2065 4,732 4,258 95 41 119.5 7,883 17 0.4 1.0

2066 4,663 4,196 93 41 118.8 7,899 15 0.3 0.9

2067 4,594 4,134 92 40 117.8 7,913 14 0.3 0.9

2068 4,527 4,073 91 40 116.8 7,927 13 0.3 0.8

2069 4,460 4,014 89 39 115.8 7,939 12 0.3 0.8

2070 4,394 3,954 88 38 114.5 7,951 12 0.3 0.8

2071 4,329 3,896 87 38 113.2 7,962 11 0.3 0.7

2072 4,265 3,838 85 37 111.8 7,973 11 0.3 0.7

2073 4,202 3,781 84 37 110.3 7,983 10 0.2 0.7

2074 4,139 3,725 83 36 108.8 7,993 10 0.2 0.7

2075 4,078 3,669 82 35 107.3 8,003 10 0.2 0.7

2076 4,017 3,615 80 35 105.7 8,012 10 0.2 0.7

2077 3,957 3,561 79 34 104.1 8,022 9 0.2 0.7

2078 3,898 3,508 78 34 102.5 8,031 9 0.2 0.7

Total: 2003-77 9,073 2,826 3,979.1

Office of the Actuary

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration

1/ Limit reverse transfer to total of specified and recapture transfers. December 1, 2003

(billions of PV$ 1/1/2003)

Proposal Net Annual Transfers

 from the GF to the TF