SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

August 24, 2015

The Honorable Brian Schatz

United States Senate

Washington, D.C. 20510

Dear Senator Schatz:

I am writing in response to your request for updated estimates of the financial effects on Social

Security of S.1940, the Safeguarding American Families and Expanding Social Security Act of 

2015, which was introduced August 5, 2015. This Bill (hereafter referred to as the proposal) 

includes three provisions with direct effects on the Social Security Trust Funds. We have 

enjoyed working with Lenna Aoki of your staff in analyzing this proposal.

The enclosed tables provide estimates of the effects of the three provisions on the cost, income, 

and combined trust fund reserves for the Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) 

program, as well as estimated effects on retired worker benefit levels for selected hypothetical 

workers. In addition, tables 1b and 1b.n provide estimates of the Federal budget implications of 

the three provisions and tables B1, B2, and B3 provide illustrations of the effects on benefit 

levels. Assuming enactment of the proposal, the projected trust fund reserve depletion year for 

the theoretical combined OASI and DI Trust Funds would be extended to 2048. Under current 

law, the projected trust fund reserve depletion year for the combined trust funds is 2033.

We base all estimates on the intermediate assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report. The 

estimates and analysis provided here reflect the combined effort of many in the Office of the 

Chief Actuary, but most particularly Alice Wade, Christopher Chaplain, Daniel Nickerson, Jason 

Schultz, Kyle Burkhalter, Katie Sutton, Tiffany Bosley, and Karen Glenn.

The Bill includes the following three provisions with direct effects on the OASDI program:

1) Eliminate the taxable maximum, fully effective 2020. Phase in the elimination over 5 

years by taxing all earnings above the current law taxable maximum at a rate of 2.48 

percent in 2016, 4.96 percent in 2017, ..., and 12.40 percent in 2020 and later. Credit the 

additional earnings for benefit purposes by: (a) calculating a second average indexed 

monthly earnings (“AIME+”) reflecting only earnings for each year that are above the 
Page 2 – The Honorable Brian Schatz

current law taxable maximum1, (b) applying a 5-percent factor on this newly computed 

“AIME+” to compute a second primary insurance amount (PIA), (c) adding this second 

primary insurance amount to the current-law primary insurance amount.

2) Increase the first PIA bend point 15 percent above the current law level for newly eligible 

beneficiaries, fully effective 2035. Phase in by increasing the first bend point 1 percent 

above the current level for newly eligible beneficiaries in 2021, 2 percent for newly 

eligible beneficiaries in 2022, ..., and 15 percent for newly eligible beneficiaries in 2035 

and later.

3) Use the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E) to calculate the cost-of-living 

adjustment (COLA), effective for December 2016 COLA. We assume this change would 

increase the COLA by an average of 0.2 percentage point per year.

The balance of this letter provides a summary of the effects of the three provisions on the 

actuarial status of the OASDI program, our understanding of the specifications and intent of each

provision, and descriptions of our detailed financial estimates for trust fund operations, benefit 

levels, and implications for the Federal budget.

Summary of Effects of the Proposal on OASDI Actuarial Status

Figure 1 below illustrates the estimated change in the combined OASI and DI Trust Fund 

reserves, expressed as a percent of annual program cost, assuming enactment of the three 

provisions of this proposal. Assuming enactment, OASDI Trust Fund reserves would be 

expected to become depleted in 2048. We base these projections on the intermediate assumptions 

of the 2014 Trustees Report.

 

1

For years 2016 through 2019, only a portion of the earnings above the current law taxable maximum is included in 

determining AIME+. The portion equals the ratio of the payroll tax rate applied during the year to the full payroll tax 

rate of 12.4 percent.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 Trust Fund Ratio

Figure 1. Present Law and Proposal OASDI Trust Fund Reserves as Percent of 

Annual Cost: 2014 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Present Law Trust Fund Ratio

Proposal
Page 3 – The Honorable Brian Schatz

For the theoretical combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, under current law, 77 percent of 

scheduled benefits are projected to be payable in 2033 after reserve depletion, declining to 72 

percent by 2088. Under the proposal, the reserves for the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds 

are projected to deplete in 2048, 15 years later than under current law. In 2048, after depletion, 

86 percent of scheduled benefits would be payable on a timely basis, declining to 79 percent 

payable in 2088. Enactment of this proposal would reduce the long-range (75-year) actuarial 

deficit by 1.33 percent of taxable payroll, from a deficit of 2.88 percent of payroll under present 

law to a deficit of 1.55 percent of payroll under the proposal.

Figure 2 illustrates annual projected levels of cost, expenditures, and non-interest income as a 

percent of the present-law taxable payroll for the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds. The 

projected level of cost reflects the full cost of scheduled benefits under both present law and the 

proposal. Under the proposal, projected expenditures equal the full cost of scheduled benefits 

through 2047, but then are lower than the full scheduled benefit cost when trust fund reserves 

deplete in 2048.

Beginning in 2017, projected OASDI program cost is higher under the proposal than under 

current law. This difference in program cost increases over the projection period, reaching 1.60

percent of present-law payroll for 2088. Beginning in 2016, the projected annual income rate 

under the proposal is higher than under current law, with the difference increasing rapidly 

through 2020 and increasing slowly thereafter, reaching 2.48 percent of payroll for 2088. The 

proposal improves the projected annual balance (non-interest income minus program cost) by 

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 Percent of Present-Law Taxable Payroll

Figure 2. Proposal and Present Law Cost, Expenditures, and Non-Interest 

Income as Percent of Taxable Payroll: 2014 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Present Law Cost

Present Law Non-Interest Income

Present Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Non-Interest Income

Proposal Expenditures
Page 4 – The Honorable Brian Schatz

2.24 percent of payroll for 2020, with the improvement steadily decreasing to 0.88 percent of 

payroll for 2088.

Under the proposal, the projected OASDI annual balance is negative through 2017, positive for 

2018 through 2023, and negative thereafter. Annual deficits would generally increase throughout 

the projection period, reaching 4.02 percent of payroll for 2088. The projected annual deficit 

under current law is 4.90 percent of payroll for 2088.

It is also useful to consider the projected cost, expenditures, and income for the OASDI program 

expressed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Figure 3 below illustrates these 

projected levels under both current law and the proposal.

Specification of Provisions for the Proposal

(1) Eliminate the taxable maximum, fully effective 2020.

Under current law, payroll taxes totaling 12.4 percent apply to OASDI covered earnings in a year 

up to the contribution and benefit base, or taxable maximum. This taxable maximum is $117,000 

for 2014 and increases in the future in line with increases in the national average wage index 

(AWI). All covered earnings subject to the payroll tax are also potentially creditable toward 

computation of potential benefits as well as attainment of insured status.

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 Percent of GDP

Figure 3. Proposal and Present Law Cost, Expenditures, and Non-Interest 

Income as Percent of GDP: 2014 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Present Law Cost

Present Law Non-Interest Income

Present Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Non-Interest Income

Proposal Expenditures
Page 5 – The Honorable Brian Schatz

Under this provision, all earnings above the current-law taxable maximum would be fully subject 

to the OASDI payroll tax of 12.4 percent in 2020 and later. The portion of the full 12.4 percent 

tax rate that would apply to covered earnings over this taxable maximum would increase 

linearly, starting at 2.48 percent (12.4 x 1/5) for 2016 and reaching 100 percent for 2020 and 

later. Therefore, all covered earnings above and below the present-law taxable maximum would 

be taxed at the 12.4 percent payroll tax rate for 2020 and later.

Under this provision as modified, the primary insurance amount (PIA) would be determined in 

two components. The first component would be computed exactly as under current law, based on 

the average indexed monthly earnings (AIME), restricted to earnings at the level of the currentlaw contribution and benefit base for each year. The second component of the PIA would be 

computed using the “AIME+.” The AIME+ would be computed exactly like the AIME, except 

that annual earnings amounts used would be restricted to just the excess amount taxable (if any) 

over the current-law contribution and benefit base for each year.2The second component of PIA 

would be 5 percent of AIME+ for benefits in 2017 and later.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would decrease the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 2.09 percent of taxable payroll and would decrease the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2088) by 2.16 percent of payroll.

(2) Increase the first PIA bend point 15 percent above the current law level for newly eligible 

beneficiaries, fully effective 2035.

Under current law, any portion of the AIME that is below the first PIA bend point is multiplied 

by a factor of 0.90 in computing the PIA. The first bend point is increased (indexed) by the 

increase in the AWI. This provision would increase the level of the first PIA bend point, from the 

level that would apply in the absence of this provision, by 1 percent for individuals newly 

eligible for benefits in 2021, 2 percent for 2022, ..., and 15 percent for individuals newly eligible 

for benefits in 2035 and all subsequent years.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.37 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2088) by 0.72 percent of payroll.

(3) Use the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E) to calculate the cost-of-living 

adjustment (COLA), effective for December 2016 COLA.

Under current law, the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) applied to Social Security 

benefits is calculated using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical 

Workers (CPI-W). We estimate that using the CPI-E instead of the CPI-W, beginning with the 

December 2016 COLA, would increase the COLA by 0.2 percentage point per year on average.

 

2

For years 2016 through 2019, only a portion of the earnings above the current law taxable maximum is included in 

determining AIME+. The portion equals the ratio of the payroll tax rate applied during the year to the full payroll tax 

rate of 12.4 percent.
Page 6 – The Honorable Brian Schatz

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.38 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2088) by 0.54 percent of payroll.

Detailed Financial Results for the Provisions of the Proposal

Summary Results by Provision

Table A provides estimates of the effects on the OASDI long-range actuarial balance for each of 

the three provisions of the proposal separately and on a combined basis. The table also includes 

estimates of the effect of each provision on the annual balance (the difference between the

income rate and the cost rate, expressed as a percent of present-law taxable payroll) for the 75th

projection year, 2088. Interaction among individual provisions is reflected only in the total 

estimates for the combined provisions.

Benefit Illustrations

Tables B1 and B2 provide illustrative examples of the projected change in benefit levels under 

the three provisions that affect benefit levels for beneficiaries retiring at age 65 in future years at 

five selected earnings levels, with selected numbers of years of work. The “Maximum-AIME 

Steady Earner” is assumed to have earnings at ages 22 through 64 that equal the present-law 

taxable maximum level (equivalent to $117,000 for 2014). As a result, the provision to increase 

the taxable maximum does not affect benefit levels illustrated in these tables. Table B3 provides 

additional important information on characteristics of the illustrative retiring workers.

Table B1 compares the initial benefit levels assuming retirement at age 65 under the provisions 

of the proposal to both scheduled and payable present-law benefit level. All benefit amounts 

under the proposal are equal to or higher than those scheduled in current law. The final two 

columns of this table show the level of scheduled benefits under the proposal as a percentage of 

present-law scheduled and present-law payable benefits, respectively.

Table B2 compares the change in scheduled benefit levels at ages 65, 75, 85, and 95 under the 

proposal to scheduled benefits under present law, assuming retirement at age 65. Table B2 shows 

that projected scheduled benefits under the provisions of this proposal increase in relation to 

present-law scheduled benefits between ages 65 and 95, because of the change in computing the 

COLA.

The hypothetical workers represented in these tables reflect average career-earnings patterns of 

workers who started receiving retirement benefits under the Social Security program in recent 

years. The tables subdivide workers with very low and low career-average earnings levels by 

their numbers of years of non-zero earnings.

Table B3 provides information helpful in interpreting the benefit illustrations in tables B1 and 

B2. Percentages in Table B3 are based on tabulations from a 10-percent sample of newly-entitled 
Page 7 – The Honorable Brian Schatz

retired workers in 2007. Table B3 displays the percentages of these newly-entitled retired 

workers in 2007 that are closest to each of the illustrative examples and are:

1) “Dually Entitled”, meaning they received a higher spouse or widow(er) benefit based on 

the career earnings of their husband or wife,

2) “WEP” (Windfall Elimination Provision), meaning that they received a reduced benefit 

due to having a pension based on earnings that were not covered under the OASDI 

program (primarily certain government workers), and they had less than 30 years of 

substantial earnings that were taxable under the OASDI program,

3) “Foreign Born”, meaning that they entered the Social Security coverage area after birth 

(and generally after entering working ages), and

4) “All Others”, meaning they had none of the three characteristics listed above.

The extent to which retired-worker beneficiaries represented by each of the illustrative examples 

has any of the characteristics listed above (dually entitled, WEP, foreign born) is important 

because such individuals are less dependent on the OASDI benefit that relates to their own 

career-average earnings level.

Detailed Tables Containing Annual and Summary Projections

Enclosed with this letter are tables 1, 1a, 1b, 1b.n, 1c, and 1d, which provide annual and 

summary projections for the proposal.

Trust Fund Operations

Table 1 provides projections of the financial operations of the OASDI program and shows that 

the combined OASDI Trust Funds would deplete in 2048 assuming enactment of this proposal.

The table shows the annual cost and income rates, annual balances, and trust fund ratios 

(reserves as percent of annual program cost) for OASDI, as well as the change from present law 

in these cost rates, income rates, and balances. Included at the bottom of this table are 

summarized rates for the 75-year (long-range) period.

The actuarial balance for the OASDI program over the 75-year projection period would be 

improved by 1.33 percent of taxable payroll, from an actuarial deficit of 2.88 percent of payroll 

under current law to a deficit of 1.55 percent of taxable payroll.

Program Transfers and Trust Fund Reserves

Column 4 of Table 1a provides a projection of the level of reserves for the theoretical combined 

OASI and DI Trust Funds. These trust fund reserve amounts are expressed in present value 

dollars discounted to January 1, 2014. The table indicates that the provisions include no new 

specified transfers of general revenue to the Trust Funds. For purpose of comparison, the OASDI 

trust fund reserves, expressed in present value dollars, are also shown for the current-law Social 

Security program both without and with the added proposal general fund transfers (zero in this 

case) in columns 6 and 7.
Page 8 – The Honorable Brian Schatz

Note that negative values in columns 4, 6, and 7 represent the “unfunded obligation” for the 

program through the year. The unfunded obligation is the present value of the shortfall of 

revenue needed to pay full scheduled benefits on a timely basis from the date of trust fund 

reserve depletion through the end of the indicated year. Gross Domestic Product (GDP),

expressed in present value dollars, is shown in column 5 for comparison with other values in the 

table.

Effect of the Social Security Provisions on the Federal Budget

Table 1b shows the projected effect, in present value discounted dollars, on the Federal budget 

(unified-budget and on-budget) cash flows and balances, assuming enactment of the three Social 

Security provisions of this proposal. Table 1b.n provides the estimated nominal dollar effect of 

enactment of the proposal on annual budget balances for years 2014 through 2024. All values in 

these tables represent the amount of change from the level projected under current law for the 

combined OASDI Trust Fund and reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits, 

not payable under the law after depletion of trust fund reserves, would still be paid using revenue 

provided from the General Fund of the Treasury obtained by additional borrowing from the 

public.

Column 1 of Table 1b shows the added proposal general fund transfers (zero in this case). 

Column 2 shows the net changes in OASDI cash flow from all provisions of the proposal.

We estimate the net effect of the proposal on unified budget cash flow (column 3) would be 

positive in years 2016 and later, reflecting the phasing out of the taxable maximum starting in 

2016.

Column 4 of Table 1b indicates that the projected effect of implementing the three provisions is a 

reduction of the Federal debt held by the public, reaching about $5.2 trillion in present value at 

the end of the 75-year projection period. Column 5 provides the projected effect of the proposal 

on the annual unified budget balances, including both the cash flow effect in column 3 and the 

additional interest on the accumulated debt in column 4. Columns 6 and 7 indicate that the 

provisions of this proposal would have no expected direct effects on the on-budget cash flow, or 

on the total Federal debt, in the future.

It is important to note that we base these estimates on the intermediate assumptions of the 2014 

Trustees Report and thus are not consistent with estimates made by the Office of Management 

and Budget or the Congressional Budget Office based on their assumptions. In particular, all 

present values are discounted using trust fund yield assumptions under the intermediate 

assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report.

Annual Trust Fund Operations as a Percent of GDP

Table 1c provides annual cost, annual expenditures (amount that would be payable), and annual 

tax income for the OASDI program expressed as a percentage of GDP for both present law and 

assuming enactment of the three Social Security provisions of the proposal. Showing the annual 

trust fund cash flows as a percent of GDP provides an additional perspective on these trust fund 
Page 9 – The Honorable Brian Schatz

operations in relation to the total value of goods and services produced in the United States. The 

relationship between income and cost is similar when expressed as a percent of GDP to that 

when expressed as a percent of taxable payroll (Table 1).

Effects on Trust Fund Reserves and Unfunded Obligations

Table 1d provides estimates of the changes in trust fund reserves. Values in this table are 

expressed in present value dollars discounted to January 1, 2014.

For the 75-year (long-range) period as a whole, the present-law unfunded obligation of $10.6 

trillion is reduced to $5.4 trillion in present value. This change of $5.2 trillion results from:

 An $8.7 trillion increase in revenue (column 2), primarily from additional payroll tax 

but also reflecting additional taxation of benefits revenues arising from increased 

aggregate benefit levels, minus

 A $3.5 trillion increase in cost (column 3), from calculating the COLA using the CPIE rather than the CPI-W, additional benefits for those with earnings above the presentlaw taxable maximum, and increasing the first PIA bend point.

We hope these estimates are helpful. Please let me know if we may provide further assistance.

Sincerely,

 

Stephen C. Goss

Chief Actuary

Enclosures
Table A--Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of the Basic Social Security 

Provisions of the “Safeguarding American Families and Expanding Social Security Act of 

2015” Introduced by Senator Schatz

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

in 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

1) Eliminate the taxable maximum, fully effective 2020. 

Phase in to elimination by taxing all earnings above the 

current law taxable maximum at 2.48% in 2016, 4.96% in 

2017, up to 12.4% in 2020 and later. Credit the additional 

earnings for benefit purposes by: (a) calculating a second 

average indexed monthly earnings (“AIME+”) reflecting only 

earnings taxed above the current law taxable maximum, 

(b) applying a 5 percent factor on this newly computed 

“AIME+” to develop a second component of the PIA, and (c)

adding this second component to the current-law PIA........................................................ 2.09 2.16

2) Increase the first PIA bend point above the current law 

level for workers newly eligible for benefits in 2021 and 

later; by 1 percent for 2021, by 2 percent for 2022, ..., and by 

15 percent for 2035 and later................................................................................................ -0.37 ............. -0.72

3) Starting December 2016, compute the cost-of-living 

adjustment (COLA) using the Consumer Price Index for the 

Elderly (CPI-E). We estimate this new computation will 

increase the annual COLA by about 0.2 percentage point, on 

average................................................................................................................................ -0.38 ........................... -054

Total for all provisions, including interaction................................................................ 1.33 ..........0.88

1Under current law, the estimated long-range OASDI actuarial balance is -2.88 percent of taxable payroll.

2Under current law, the estimated 75th year annual balance is -4.90 percent of taxable payroll.

Notes: All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2014 OASDI Trustees Report. 

 Estimates of individual provisions appear on a stand-alone basis relative to current law, unless otherwise stated.

Social Security Administration

Office of the Chief Actuary

August 24, 2015
Year 

Attain Reduced Benefit

Age 65 (Wage-Indexed (CPI-Indexed COLA4Formula5 Total Scheduled Payable

2014 Dollars) 2014 Dollars)

 

2014 705 705 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 629 806 0.6 4.3 4.9 105 105

2050 633 1,015 0.6 8.4 9.0 109 -

2080 632 1,397 0.6 8.4 9.0 109 -

 

2014 705 705 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 629 806 0.6 4.3 4.9 105 105

2050 633 1,015 0.6 8.4 9.0 109 -

2080 632 1,397 0.6 8.4 9.0 109 -

 

2014 705 705 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 629 806 0.6 4.3 4.9 105 105

2050 633 1,015 0.6 8.4 9.0 109 -

2080 632 1,397 0.6 8.4 9.0 109 -

2014 922 922 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 823 1,055 0.6 3.3 3.9 104 104

2050 828 1,328 0.6 7.0 7.7 108 -

2080 827 1,828 0.6 7.0 7.7 108 -

2014 922 922 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 823 1,055 0.6 3.3 3.9 104 104

2050 828 1,328 0.6 7.0 7.7 108 -

2080 827 1,828 0.6 7.0 7.7 108 -

2014 922 922 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 823 1,055 0.6 3.3 3.9 104 104

2050 828 1,328 0.6 7.0 7.7 108 -

2080 827 1,828 0.6 7.0 7.7 108 -

2014 1,520 1,520 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 1,356 1,739 0.6 2.0 2.6 103 103

2050 1,364 2,189 0.6 4.3 4.9 105 -

2080 1,364 3,013 0.6 4.3 4.9 105 -

2014 1,520 1,520 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 1,356 1,739 0.6 2.0 2.6 103 103

2050 1,364 2,189 0.6 4.3 4.9 105 -

2080 1,364 3,013 0.6 4.3 4.9 105 -

2014 2,015 2,015 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 1,797 2,304 0.6 1.5 2.1 102 102

2050 1,807 2,900 0.6 3.2 3.8 104 -

2080 1,807 3,992 0.6 3.2 3.8 104 -

2014 2,432 2,432 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 2,199 2,819 0.6 1.2 1.8 102 102

2050 2,210 3,545 0.6 2.6 3.2 103 -

2080 2,204 4,870 0.6 2.6 3.2 103 -

1 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2014.

2

Projected percent of new retired worker awards in 2050 closest to AIME levels and years of work.

3 After the trust fund reserves deplete under present law continuing taxes are expected to be enough to pay about three fourths of scheduled benefits.

4

5

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration August 24, 2015

 Medium-AIME ($46,787 for 20141) 30-Year Scaled Earner (2.7% of Retirees2)

 Maximum-AIME ($117,000 for 20141) 43-Year Steady Earner (6.0% of Retirees2)

Starting with the Dec 2016 COLA, compute the COLA using the CPI-E, producing 0.2% higher annual COLAs on average.

Increase the current law first bend point arithmetically by 1 percent each year from 2021-2035 until a 15% increase takes effect for 2035 and later.

 High-AIME ($74,859 for 20141) 44-Year Scaled Earner (21.5% of Retirees2)

Table B1. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Beginning Benefit Receipt at age 65 

S.1940, the Safeguarding American Families and Expanding Social Security Act of 2015 ,

introduced by Senator Schatz

Scheduled Benefit Level Percent Change at age 65

Present Law Scheduled Proposal Scheduled Benefit

 Low-AIME ($21,054 for 20141) 30-Year Scaled Earner (5.0% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($21,054 for 20141) 20-Year Scaled Earner (2.4% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($46,787 for 20141) 44-Year Scaled Earner (29.2% of Retirees2)

Monthly Benefits3 Percent of Present Law:

(Percent change) (Percents)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,697 for 20141) 30-Year Scaled Earner (8.5% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,697 for 20141) 20-Year Scaled Earner (4.8% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,697 for 20141) 14-Year Scaled Earner (4.6% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($21,054 for 20141) 44-Year Scaled Earner (15.3% of Retirees2)
Year 

Attain

Age 65 Age 65 Age 75 Age 85 Age 95

2014 100.0 101.6 103.6 105.6

2030 104.9 107.0 109.1 111.2

2050 109.0 111.1 113.3 115.5

2080 109.0 111.2 113.3 115.6

2014 100.0 101.6 103.6 105.6

2030 104.9 107.0 109.1 111.2

2050 109.0 111.1 113.3 115.5

2080 109.0 111.2 113.3 115.6

2014 100.0 101.6 103.6 105.6

2030 104.9 107.0 109.1 111.2

2050 109.0 111.1 113.3 115.5

2080 109.0 111.2 113.3 115.6

2014 100.0 101.6 103.6 105.6

2030 103.9 105.9 108.0 110.1

2050 107.7 109.8 111.9 114.1

2080 107.7 109.8 111.9 114.1

2014 100.0 101.6 103.6 105.6

2030 103.9 105.9 108.0 110.1

2050 107.7 109.8 111.9 114.1

2080 107.7 109.8 111.9 114.1

2014 100.0 101.6 103.6 105.6

2030 103.9 105.9 108.0 110.1

2050 107.7 109.8 111.9 114.1

2080 107.7 109.8 111.9 114.1

2014 100.0 101.6 103.6 105.6

2030 102.6 104.6 106.7 108.8

2050 104.9 106.9 109.0 111.2

2080 104.9 106.9 109.0 111.2

2014 100.0 101.6 103.6 105.6

2030 102.6 104.6 106.7 108.8

2050 104.9 106.9 109.0 111.2

2080 104.9 106.9 109.0 111.2

2014 100.0 101.6 103.6 105.6

2030 102.1 104.1 106.2 108.2

2050 103.8 105.9 108.0 110.1

2080 103.8 105.9 108.0 110.1

2014 100.0 101.6 103.6 105.6

2030 101.8 103.8 105.9 107.9

2050 103.2 105.3 107.3 109.4

2080 103.2 105.3 107.3 109.5

1 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2014.

2

Projected percent of new retired worker awards in 2050 closest to AIME levels and years of work.

Note: Starting Dec 2016, compute the COLA using the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E).

Other Changes: 

-

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration August 24, 2015

 High-AIME ($74,859 for 20141) 44-Year Scaled Earner (21.5% of Retirees2)

 Maximum-AIME ($117,000 for 20141) 43-Year Steady Earner (6.0% of Retirees2)

Increase the current law first bend point arithmetically by 1 percent each year from 2021-2035 until a 15% increase takes effect for 2035 and later.

 Medium-AIME ($46,787 for 20141) 30-Year Scaled Earner (2.7% of Retirees2)

Table B2. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Beginning Benefit Receipt at age 65 

S.1940, the Safeguarding American Families and Expanding Social Security Act of 2015 ,

introduced by Senator Schatz

Proposal Scheduled Benefit as Percent of Present Law Scheduled

(Percent)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,697 for 20141) 30-Year Scaled Earner (8.5% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,697 for 20141) 20-Year Scaled Earner (4.8% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,697 for 20141) 14-Year Scaled Earner (4.6% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($21,054 for 20141) 44-Year Scaled Earner (15.3% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($21,054 for 20141) 30-Year Scaled Earner (5.0% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($21,054 for 20141) 20-Year Scaled Earner (2.4% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($46,787 for 20141) 44-Year Scaled Earner (29.2% of Retirees2)
Category Dually Entitled2 WEP3

Foreign Born All Others4

Very-Low-AIME ($11,697 for 20141):

30-Year Scaled Earner (9.3% of Retirees) 47 6 11 40

20-Year Scaled Earner (5.8% of Retirees) 38 16 21 31

14-Year Scaled Earner (5.3% of Retirees) 22 21 45 20

Low-AIME ($21,054 for 20141):

44-Year Scaled Earner (13.1% of Retirees) 15 2 6 78

30-Year Scaled Earner (5.9% of Retirees) 16 9 18 59

20-Year Scaled Earner (3.1% of Retirees) 10 23 35 37

Medium-AIME ($46,787 for 20141):

44-Year Scaled Earner (23.0% of Retirees) 1 1 5 93

30-Year Scaled Earner (4.4% of Retirees) 1 8 26 67

High-AIME ($74,859 for 20141):

44-Year Scaled Earner (20.5% of Retirees) 0 0 6 93

Maximum-AIME ($117,000 for 20141):

Steady Earner (9.4% of Retirees) 0 0 7 93

1 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2014.

2

3 Covered by pension from government employment and are subject to the windfall elimination provision (WEP).

4 Neither foreign born, subject to WEP, or dually entitled.

August 24, 2015

Note 3: The sum of the percentages for each category (sum across rows) could be greater than 100 percent because some beneficiaries can be classified in more than one of the 

following groups: dually entitled, WEP, and foreign born. 

Under current law, entitled to an additional benefit based on someone else's account. The dually entitled percent is a minimum value. Some beneficiaries that are not 

currently dually entitled could become dually entitled in the future.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration

Table B3. Important Characteristics of Hypothetical Workers in 2007

Percent of Beneficiaries Within Each Category That Are:

Note 1:Table B3 displays the percentages of these newly-entitled retired workers in 2007 that are closest to each of the illustrative examples.

Note 2: Percents based on tabulations of a 10-percent sample of newly entitled retired-worker beneficiaries in 2007 (169,725 records). We can be 95 percent confident that each 

of the values shown above is within 1.4 percentage points of the value we would find using 100 percent of the retirees in 2007.
Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

S.1940, the "Safeguarding American Families and Expanding Social Security Act of 2015" , introduced by Senator Schatz

Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2014 13.95 12.67 -1.29 320 0.00 0.00 0.00

2015 13.97 12.92 -1.05 306 0.00 0.00 0.00

2016 13.97 13.38 -0.59 292 0.00 0.49 0.49

2017 14.00 13.89 -0.10 280 0.03 0.99 0.96

2018 14.07 14.39 0.33 271 0.05 1.46 1.41

2019 14.22 14.86 0.63 266 0.08 1.91 1.84

2020 14.43 15.30 0.87 262 0.10 2.34 2.24

2021 14.63 15.33 0.70 262 0.13 2.35 2.22

2022 14.89 15.35 0.45 260 0.16 2.34 2.18

2023 15.19 15.35 0.16 257 0.19 2.32 2.13

2024 15.50 15.38 -0.12 252 0.22 2.32 2.10

2025 15.80 15.40 -0.40 247 0.25 2.33 2.07

2026 16.08 15.42 -0.66 241 0.29 2.33 2.04

2027 16.35 15.44 -0.92 235 0.33 2.33 2.01

2028 16.61 15.45 -1.15 228 0.36 2.33 1.97

2029 16.84 15.47 -1.37 222 0.40 2.34 1.93

2030 17.05 15.49 -1.56 214 0.45 2.34 1.89

2031 17.23 15.50 -1.73 206 0.49 2.34 1.86

2032 17.40 15.51 -1.88 197 0.53 2.35 1.82

2033 17.53 15.52 -2.00 187 0.57 2.35 1.78

2034 17.65 15.53 -2.12 177 0.62 2.35 1.73

2035 17.75 15.54 -2.21 167 0.66 2.36 1.69

2036 17.83 15.55 -2.28 156 0.71 2.36 1.65

2037 17.89 15.56 -2.34 145 0.75 2.36 1.61

2038 17.93 15.56 -2.37 134 0.79 2.37 1.57

2039 17.95 15.57 -2.38 122 0.83 2.37 1.54

2040 17.96 15.57 -2.39 110 0.87 2.37 1.50

2041 17.96 15.57 -2.39 99 0.91 2.38 1.46

2042 17.96 15.58 -2.38 87 0.95 2.38 1.43

2043 17.96 15.58 -2.38 75 0.98 2.38 1.40

2044 17.97 15.58 -2.39 63 1.01 2.38 1.37

2045 17.99 15.59 -2.40 51 1.05 2.39 1.34

2046 18.01 15.59 -2.42 38 1.08 2.39 1.31

2047 18.02 15.59 -2.43 26 1.11 2.39 1.29

2048 18.04 15.60 -2.44 13 1.14 2.40 1.26

2049 18.06 15.60 -2.46 ---- 1.16 2.40 1.24

2050 18.08 15.60 -2.48 ---- 1.19 2.40 1.21

2051 18.11 15.61 -2.50 ---- 1.21 2.41 1.19

2052 18.15 15.61 -2.54 ---- 1.24 2.41 1.17

2053 18.20 15.62 -2.58 ---- 1.26 2.41 1.15

2054 18.26 15.62 -2.63 ---- 1.29 2.41 1.13

2055 18.32 15.63 -2.69 ---- 1.31 2.42 1.11

2056 18.39 15.64 -2.75 ---- 1.33 2.42 1.09

2057 18.46 15.64 -2.82 ---- 1.35 2.42 1.07

2058 18.53 15.65 -2.88 ---- 1.37 2.42 1.06

2059 18.60 15.65 -2.94 ---- 1.39 2.43 1.04

2060 18.66 15.66 -3.00 ---- 1.40 2.43 1.03

2061 18.73 15.67 -3.06 ---- 1.42 2.43 1.01

2062 18.79 15.67 -3.12 ---- 1.43 2.43 1.00

2063 18.85 15.68 -3.17 ---- 1.45 2.44 0.99

2064 18.91 15.68 -3.23 ---- 1.46 2.44 0.98

2065 18.97 15.69 -3.28 ---- 1.47 2.44 0.97

2066 19.03 15.69 -3.34 ---- 1.48 2.44 0.96

2067 19.09 15.70 -3.39 ---- 1.49 2.45 0.95

2068 19.15 15.70 -3.45 ---- 1.50 2.45 0.94

2069 19.21 15.71 -3.50 ---- 1.51 2.45 0.94

2070 19.26 15.71 -3.55 ---- 1.52 2.45 0.93

2071 19.31 15.72 -3.59 ---- 1.53 2.45 0.92

2072 19.35 15.72 -3.63 ---- 1.54 2.46 0.92

2073 19.39 15.73 -3.66 ---- 1.54 2.46 0.91

2074 19.42 15.73 -3.69 ---- 1.55 2.46 0.91

2075 19.44 15.73 -3.70 ---- 1.56 2.46 0.91

2076 19.45 15.73 -3.72 ---- 1.56 2.46 0.90

2077 19.46 15.74 -3.72 ---- 1.56 2.46 0.90

2078 19.46 15.74 -3.72 ---- 1.57 2.47 0.90

2079 19.46 15.74 -3.72 ---- 1.57 2.47 0.90

2080 19.47 15.74 -3.73 ---- 1.57 2.47 0.90

2081 19.49 15.74 -3.75 ---- 1.57 2.47 0.90

2082 19.51 15.75 -3.77 ---- 1.58 2.47 0.89

2083 19.55 15.75 -3.80 ---- 1.58 2.47 0.89

2084 19.59 15.75 -3.83 ---- 1.59 2.47 0.89

2085 19.63 15.76 -3.88 ---- 1.59 2.48 0.89

2086 19.68 15.76 -3.92 ---- 1.59 2.48 0.88

2087 19.74 15.77 -3.97 ---- 1.60 2.48 0.88

2088 19.80 15.77 -4.02 ---- 1.60 2.48 0.88

2089 19.85 15.78 -4.08 ---- 1.61 2.48 0.87

Summarized Rates: OASDI Summarized Rates: OASDI

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

2014 - 2088 17.68% 16.13% -1.55% 2048 0.91% 2.24% 1.33%

Office of the Chief Actuary

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration

1

 Under present law the year of combined Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2033. August 24, 2015

Year of reserve 

depletion1

Proposal Change from Present Law

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll
Table 1a - General Fund Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Reserves, and Theoretical OASDI Reserves

S.1940, the "Safeguarding American Families and Expanding Social Security Act of 2015" , introduced by Senator Schatz

Percentage

of Payroll

Annual

Amounts

Accumulated as of 

End of Year

Gross Domestic 

Product

Without General

Fund Transfers

With Plan General

Fund Transfers

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,686.5 17,248.0 2,686.5 2,686.5

2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,622.1 17,479.5 2,622.1 2,622.1

2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,585.1 17,764.0 2,554.4 2,554.4

2017 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,578.9 18,073.7 2,485.9 2,485.9

2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,601.2 18,375.4 2,414.4 2,414.4

2019 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,644.8 18,640.8 2,333.7 2,333.7

2020 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,705.0 18,857.5 2,240.3 2,240.3

2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,754.3 19,025.1 2,135.5 2,135.5

2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,786.9 19,140.3 2,015.5 2,015.5

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,799.2 19,227.7 1,877.7 1,877.7

2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,791.7 19,280.8 1,722.0 1,722.0

2025 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,764.8 19,278.2 1,549.3 1,549.3

2026 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,719.5 19,215.2 1,361.3 1,361.3

2027 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,657.2 19,086.8 1,159.7 1,159.7

2028 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,579.3 18,893.0 946.6 946.6

2029 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,487.9 18,668.8 724.2 724.2

2030 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,384.8 18,445.7 494.4 494.4

2031 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,271.8 18,223.6 258.8 258.8

2032 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,150.6 18,005.7 19.3 19.3

2033 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,023.1 17,795.3 -222.4 -222.4

2034 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,889.9 17,587.9 -465.8 -465.8

2035 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,752.7 17,387.7 -709.2 -709.2

2036 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,612.7 17,192.4 -951.7 -951.7

2037 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,471.0 17,003.0 -1,192.0 -1,192.0

2038 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,329.0 16,820.9 -1,429.2 -1,429.2

2039 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,187.8 16,643.5 -1,662.3 -1,662.3

2040 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,047.9 16,469.7 -1,890.8 -1,890.8

2041 0.0 0.0 0.0 909.8 16,298.4 -2,114.6 -2,114.6

2042 0.0 0.0 0.0 773.5 16,127.3 -2,333.7 -2,333.7

2043 0.0 0.0 0.0 638.9 15,957.2 -2,548.3 -2,548.3

2044 0.0 0.0 0.0 505.5 15,789.1 -2,759.1 -2,759.1

2045 0.0 0.0 0.0 372.9 15,619.5 -2,966.4 -2,966.4

2046 0.0 0.0 0.0 241.2 15,450.2 -3,170.4 -3,170.4

2047 0.0 0.0 0.0 110.3 15,281.2 -3,371.2 -3,371.2

2048 0.0 0.0 0.0 -19.5 15,112.3 -3,568.7 -3,568.7

2049 0.0 0.0 0.0 -148.4 14,943.6 -3,763.2 -3,763.2

2050 0.0 0.0 0.0 -276.7 14,774.2 -3,955.0 -3,955.0

2051 0.0 0.0 0.0 -404.7 14,605.5 -4,144.6 -4,144.6

2052 0.0 0.0 0.0 -532.9 14,436.3 -4,332.4 -4,332.4

2053 0.0 0.0 0.0 -661.5 14,266.8 -4,518.9 -4,518.9

2054 0.0 0.0 0.0 -791.1 14,097.9 -4,704.6 -4,704.6

2055 0.0 0.0 0.0 -921.7 13,929.6 -4,889.6 -4,889.6

2056 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,053.6 13,761.9 -5,074.2 -5,074.2

2057 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,186.7 13,595.7 -5,258.5 -5,258.5

2058 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,321.0 13,431.2 -5,442.5 -5,442.5

2059 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,456.2 13,268.8 -5,626.1 -5,626.1

2060 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,592.4 13,108.0 -5,809.3 -5,809.3

2061 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,729.3 12,949.7 -5,992.1 -5,992.1

2062 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,866.9 12,794.2 -6,174.3 -6,174.3

2063 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,005.1 12,640.5 -6,356.0 -6,356.0

2064 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,143.7 12,489.1 -6,537.2 -6,537.2

2065 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,282.9 12,339.8 -6,717.8 -6,717.8

2066 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,422.5 12,192.7 -6,898.0 -6,898.0

2067 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,562.5 12,048.2 -7,077.8 -7,077.8

2068 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,702.9 11,905.9 -7,257.0 -7,257.0

2069 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,843.6 11,766.0 -7,435.7 -7,435.7

2070 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,984.4 11,627.9 -7,613.7 -7,613.7

2071 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,125.2 11,491.2 -7,791.0 -7,791.0

2072 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,265.6 11,356.6 -7,967.3 -7,967.3

2073 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,405.4 11,223.5 -8,142.2 -8,142.2

2074 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,544.3 11,091.9 -8,315.6 -8,315.6

2075 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,682.0 10,961.8 -8,487.3 -8,487.3

2076 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,818.3 10,833.2 -8,657.0 -8,657.0

2077 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,953.0 10,705.9 -8,824.7 -8,824.7

2078 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4,086.0 10,579.6 -8,990.2 -8,990.2

2079 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4,217.4 10,454.4 -9,153.5 -9,153.5

2080 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4,347.4 10,329.9 -9,315.0 -9,315.0

2081 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4,476.1 10,206.0 -9,474.8 -9,474.8

2082 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4,603.9 10,082.9 -9,633.2 -9,633.2

2083 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4,731.0 9,960.4 -9,790.5 -9,790.5

2084 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4,857.6 9,838.6 -9,946.7 -9,946.7

2085 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4,984.0 9,717.5 -10,102.3 -10,102.3

2086 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5,110.1 9,597.6 -10,257.1 -10,257.1

2087 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5,236.2 9,478.5 -10,411.4 -10,411.4

2088 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5,362.3 9,360.5 -10,565.1 -10,565.1

2089 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5,488.3 9,243.6 -10,718.3 -10,718.3

Total 2014-2088 0.0

Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report.

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%.

Office of the Chief Actuary

1

 Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption Social Security Administration

 that the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury. August 24, 2015

Calendar

Year

Proposal General Fund Transfers Present Value in Billions as of 1-1-2014

Proposal

Total OASDI

Trust Fund

Reserves

 at End of Year

Theoretical Social Security1

with Borrowing Authority

Present Value in Billions as of 1-1- 2014 Net OASDI Trust Fund Reserves at End of Year
Table 1b - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1

 (Present Value Dollars)

S.1940, the "Safeguarding American Families and Expanding Social Security Act of 2015" , introduced by Senator Schatz

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End Of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2016 0.0 30.8 30.8 -30.8 30.8 0.0 0.0

2017 0.0 62.3 62.3 -93.0 63.3 0.0 0.0

2018 0.0 93.8 93.8 -186.8 97.0 0.0 0.0

2019 0.0 124.3 124.3 -311.1 130.9 0.0 0.0

2020 0.0 153.6 153.6 -464.7 165.0 0.0 0.0

2021 0.0 154.1 154.1 -618.8 171.3 0.0 0.0

2022 0.0 152.6 152.6 -771.4 176.0 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 150.1 150.1 -921.5 180.0 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 148.2 148.2 -1,069.7 186.5 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 145.7 145.7 -1,215.4 193.4 0.0 0.0

2026 0.0 142.8 142.8 -1,358.2 200.5 0.0 0.0

2027 0.0 139.3 139.3 -1,497.5 207.9 0.0 0.0

2028 0.0 135.2 135.2 -1,632.7 215.7 0.0 0.0

2029 0.0 131.0 131.0 -1,763.7 218.7 0.0 0.0

2030 0.0 126.7 126.7 -1,890.5 221.5 0.0 0.0

2031 0.0 122.5 122.5 -2,013.0 224.1 0.0 0.0

2032 0.0 118.3 118.3 -2,131.3 226.5 0.0 0.0

2033 0.0 114.2 114.2 -2,245.5 228.7 0.0 0.0

2034 0.0 110.2 110.2 -2,355.7 230.8 0.0 0.0

2035 0.0 106.2 106.2 -2,461.9 232.8 0.0 0.0

2036 0.0 102.4 102.4 -2,564.3 234.7 0.0 0.0

2037 0.0 98.7 98.7 -2,663.0 236.5 0.0 0.0

2038 0.0 95.2 95.2 -2,758.2 238.3 0.0 0.0

2039 0.0 91.9 91.9 -2,850.1 240.1 0.0 0.0

2040 0.0 88.7 88.7 -2,938.8 241.8 0.0 0.0

2041 0.0 85.7 85.7 -3,024.4 243.6 0.0 0.0

2042 0.0 82.8 82.8 -3,107.2 245.3 0.0 0.0

2043 0.0 80.0 80.0 -3,187.2 247.0 0.0 0.0

2044 0.0 77.3 77.3 -3,264.5 248.6 0.0 0.0

2045 0.0 74.8 74.8 -3,339.3 250.2 0.0 0.0

2046 0.0 72.3 72.3 -3,411.6 251.7 0.0 0.0

2047 0.0 69.9 69.9 -3,481.5 253.2 0.0 0.0

2048 0.0 67.7 67.7 -3,549.2 254.8 0.0 0.0

2049 0.0 65.6 65.6 -3,614.8 256.3 0.0 0.0

2050 0.0 63.5 63.5 -3,678.3 257.8 0.0 0.0

2051 0.0 61.6 61.6 -3,739.9 259.2 0.0 0.0

2052 0.0 59.7 59.7 -3,799.6 260.6 0.0 0.0

2053 0.0 57.9 57.9 -3,857.4 262.0 0.0 0.0

2054 0.0 56.1 56.1 -3,913.5 263.4 0.0 0.0

2055 0.0 54.4 54.4 -3,967.9 264.7 0.0 0.0

2056 0.0 52.8 52.8 -4,020.6 266.0 0.0 0.0

2057 0.0 51.2 51.2 -4,071.8 267.2 0.0 0.0

2058 0.0 49.7 49.7 -4,121.6 268.5 0.0 0.0

2059 0.0 48.3 48.3 -4,169.9 269.8 0.0 0.0

2060 0.0 47.0 47.0 -4,216.9 271.1 0.0 0.0

2061 0.0 45.8 45.8 -4,262.8 272.4 0.0 0.0

2062 0.0 44.6 44.6 -4,307.4 273.7 0.0 0.0

2063 0.0 43.6 43.6 -4,351.0 275.0 0.0 0.0

2064 0.0 42.5 42.5 -4,393.5 276.3 0.0 0.0

2065 0.0 41.5 41.5 -4,435.0 277.6 0.0 0.0

2066 0.0 40.6 40.6 -4,475.6 278.9 0.0 0.0

2067 0.0 39.7 39.7 -4,515.2 280.2 0.0 0.0

2068 0.0 38.8 38.8 -4,554.1 281.4 0.0 0.0

2069 0.0 38.0 38.0 -4,592.1 282.7 0.0 0.0

2070 0.0 37.2 37.2 -4,629.3 284.0 0.0 0.0

2071 0.0 36.5 36.5 -4,665.8 285.2 0.0 0.0

2072 0.0 35.8 35.8 -4,701.6 286.5 0.0 0.0

2073 0.0 35.2 35.2 -4,736.8 287.8 0.0 0.0

2074 0.0 34.6 34.6 -4,771.4 289.1 0.0 0.0

2075 0.0 34.0 34.0 -4,805.3 290.3 0.0 0.0

2076 0.0 33.4 33.4 -4,838.8 291.6 0.0 0.0

2077 0.0 32.9 32.9 -4,871.7 292.9 0.0 0.0

2078 0.0 32.5 32.5 -4,904.1 294.2 0.0 0.0

2079 0.0 32.0 32.0 -4,936.1 295.5 0.0 0.0

2080 0.0 31.5 31.5 -4,967.7 296.8 0.0 0.0

2081 0.0 31.1 31.1 -4,998.7 298.0 0.0 0.0

2082 0.0 30.6 30.6 -5,029.3 299.2 0.0 0.0

2083 0.0 30.1 30.1 -5,059.5 300.4 0.0 0.0

2084 0.0 29.7 29.7 -5,089.1 301.5 0.0 0.0

2085 0.0 29.2 29.2 -5,118.3 302.6 0.0 0.0

2086 0.0 28.7 28.7 -5,147.0 303.7 0.0 0.0

2087 0.0 28.2 28.2 -5,175.2 304.7 0.0 0.0

2088 0.0 27.7 27.7 -5,202.9 305.8 0.0 0.0

Total 2014-2088 0.0 5,202.9 5,202.9

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report.

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%.

Note: Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would Office of the Chief Actuary

 nonetheless be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. Social Security Administration

1

 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table. August 24, 2015

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2014
Table 1b.n - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1

 (Nominal Dollars)

S.1940, the "Safeguarding American Families and Expanding Social Security Act of 2015" , introduced by Senator Schatz

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2016 0.0 33.5 33.5 -34.2 34.2 0.0 0.0

2017 0.0 70.2 70.2 -107.0 72.8 0.0 0.0

2018 0.0 109.5 109.5 -222.7 115.7 0.0 0.0

2019 0.0 150.4 150.4 -385.0 162.3 0.0 0.0

2020 0.0 192.9 192.9 -597.5 212.5 0.0 0.0

2021 0.0 200.8 200.8 -827.3 229.8 0.0 0.0

2022 0.0 206.6 206.6 -1,073.4 246.0 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 211.3 211.3 -1,336.0 262.6 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 217.3 217.3 -1,620.0 284.0 0.0 0.0

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report.

Note: Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would Office of the Chief Actuary

 nonetheless be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. Social Security Administration

1

 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table. August 24, 2015

Billions of Nominal Dollars
Table 1c - Present Law and Proposal Cost, Expenditures, and Income: As Percent of Gross Domestic Product

S.1940, the "Safeguarding American Families and Expanding Social Security Act of 2015" , introduced by Senator Schatz

Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

2014 4.92 4.92 4.46 4.92 4.92 4.46

2015 4.94 4.94 4.57 4.94 4.94 4.57

2016 4.97 4.97 4.59 4.97 4.97 4.76

2017 5.01 5.01 4.63 5.02 5.02 4.98

2018 5.06 5.06 4.67 5.08 5.08 5.20

2019 5.13 5.13 4.70 5.16 5.16 5.39

2020 5.21 5.21 4.71 5.25 5.25 5.57

2021 5.29 5.29 4.73 5.33 5.33 5.59

2022 5.38 5.38 4.75 5.44 5.44 5.61

2023 5.48 5.48 4.76 5.55 5.55 5.61

2024 5.57 5.57 4.76 5.65 5.65 5.61

2025 5.66 5.66 4.76 5.75 5.75 5.61

2026 5.74 5.74 4.76 5.85 5.85 5.61

2027 5.82 5.82 4.76 5.94 5.94 5.61

2028 5.89 5.89 4.76 6.03 6.03 5.61

2029 5.96 5.96 4.76 6.10 6.10 5.61

2030 6.01 6.01 4.76 6.17 6.17 5.61

2031 6.06 6.06 4.76 6.23 6.23 5.61

2032 6.09 6.09 4.76 6.29 6.29 5.61

2033 6.12 4.86 4.76 6.33 6.33 5.60

2034 6.14 4.75 4.75 6.37 6.37 5.60

2035 6.16 4.75 4.75 6.40 6.40 5.60

2036 6.16 4.75 4.75 6.42 6.42 5.60

2037 6.16 4.74 4.74 6.43 6.43 5.59

2038 6.16 4.74 4.74 6.44 6.44 5.59

2039 6.14 4.74 4.74 6.44 6.44 5.59

2040 6.12 4.73 4.73 6.44 6.44 5.58

2041 6.10 4.72 4.72 6.43 6.43 5.58

2042 6.08 4.72 4.72 6.42 6.42 5.57

2043 6.06 4.71 4.71 6.41 6.41 5.56

2044 6.05 4.71 4.71 6.41 6.41 5.56

2045 6.03 4.70 4.70 6.41 6.41 5.55

2046 6.02 4.69 4.69 6.40 6.40 5.54

2047 6.01 4.69 4.69 6.40 6.40 5.54

2048 5.99 4.68 4.68 6.40 6.37 5.53

2049 5.98 4.67 4.67 6.39 5.52 5.52

2050 5.97 4.67 4.67 6.39 5.52 5.52

2051 5.97 4.66 4.66 6.39 5.51 5.51

2052 5.96 4.66 4.66 6.40 5.50 5.50

2053 5.96 4.65 4.65 6.41 5.50 5.50

2054 5.97 4.64 4.64 6.42 5.49 5.49

2055 5.97 4.64 4.64 6.43 5.49 5.49

2056 5.98 4.63 4.63 6.45 5.48 5.48

2057 5.99 4.63 4.63 6.46 5.47 5.47

2058 6.00 4.62 4.62 6.47 5.47 5.47

2059 6.00 4.62 4.62 6.49 5.46 5.46

2060 6.01 4.61 4.61 6.50 5.46 5.46

2061 6.02 4.60 4.60 6.51 5.45 5.45

2062 6.03 4.60 4.60 6.53 5.44 5.44

2063 6.04 4.59 4.59 6.54 5.44 5.44

2064 6.04 4.59 4.59 6.55 5.43 5.43

2065 6.05 4.58 4.58 6.56 5.42 5.42

2066 6.06 4.57 4.57 6.57 5.42 5.42

2067 6.07 4.57 4.57 6.58 5.41 5.41

2068 6.07 4.56 4.56 6.59 5.41 5.41

2069 6.08 4.56 4.56 6.60 5.40 5.40

2070 6.09 4.55 4.55 6.61 5.39 5.39

2071 6.10 4.55 4.55 6.62 5.39 5.39

2072 6.10 4.54 4.54 6.63 5.38 5.38

2073 6.10 4.54 4.54 6.63 5.38 5.38

2074 6.10 4.53 4.53 6.63 5.37 5.37

2075 6.10 4.52 4.52 6.63 5.36 5.36

2076 6.09 4.52 4.52 6.62 5.36 5.36

2077 6.09 4.51 4.51 6.62 5.35 5.35

2078 6.08 4.51 4.51 6.61 5.35 5.35

2079 6.07 4.50 4.50 6.60 5.34 5.34

2080 6.07 4.50 4.50 6.60 5.34 5.34

2081 6.07 4.49 4.49 6.60 5.33 5.33

2082 6.07 4.49 4.49 6.60 5.33 5.33

2083 6.07 4.49 4.49 6.60 5.32 5.32

2084 6.08 4.48 4.48 6.61 5.32 5.32

2085 6.08 4.48 4.48 6.62 5.31 5.31

2086 6.09 4.48 4.48 6.63 5.31 5.31

2087 6.11 4.47 4.47 6.64 5.31 5.31

2088 6.12 4.47 4.47 6.66 5.30 5.30

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

August 24, 2015

Present Law OASDI Proposal OASDI

Calendar

Year
Table 1d - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Reserves / Unfunded Obligation

S.1940, the "Safeguarding American Families and Expanding Social Security Act of 2015" , introduced by Senator Schatz

Year

Present Law OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Total Change

Through

End of Year

Proposal OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) = cumulative sum(4) (6) = (1)+(5)

2014 2,686.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,686.5

2015 2,622.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,622.1

2016 2,554.4 30.8 0.0 30.8 30.8 2,585.1

2017 2,485.9 63.9 1.7 62.3 93.0 2,578.9

2018 2,414.4 97.2 3.4 93.8 186.8 2,601.2

2019 2,333.7 129.4 5.2 124.3 311.1 2,644.8

2020 2,240.3 160.6 7.0 153.6 464.7 2,705.0

2021 2,135.5 163.0 8.9 154.1 618.8 2,754.3

2022 2,015.5 163.5 10.9 152.6 771.4 2,786.9

2023 1,877.7 163.3 13.1 150.1 921.5 2,799.2

2024 1,722.0 163.6 15.4 148.2 1,069.7 2,791.7

2025 1,549.3 163.5 17.8 145.7 1,215.4 2,764.8

2026 1,361.3 163.0 20.2 142.8 1,358.2 2,719.5

2027 1,159.7 161.9 22.6 139.3 1,497.5 2,657.2

2028 946.6 160.3 25.0 135.2 1,632.7 2,579.3

2029 724.2 158.4 27.4 131.0 1,763.7 2,487.9

2030 494.4 156.5 29.8 126.7 1,890.5 2,384.8

2031 258.8 154.7 32.2 122.5 2,013.0 2,271.8

2032 19.3 152.9 34.6 118.3 2,131.3 2,150.6

2033 -222.4 151.1 36.9 114.2 2,245.5 2,023.1

2034 -465.8 149.4 39.3 110.2 2,355.7 1,889.9

2035 -709.2 147.8 41.6 106.2 2,461.9 1,752.7

2036 -951.7 146.2 43.8 102.4 2,564.3 1,612.7

2037 -1,192.0 144.6 45.9 98.7 2,663.0 1,471.0

2038 -1,429.2 143.1 47.9 95.2 2,758.2 1,329.0

2039 -1,662.3 141.7 49.8 91.9 2,850.1 1,187.8

2040 -1,890.8 140.2 51.5 88.7 2,938.8 1,047.9

2041 -2,114.6 138.8 53.1 85.7 3,024.4 909.8

2042 -2,333.7 137.4 54.6 82.8 3,107.2 773.5

2043 -2,548.3 135.9 55.9 80.0 3,187.2 638.9

2044 -2,759.1 134.5 57.2 77.3 3,264.5 505.5

2045 -2,966.4 133.0 58.3 74.8 3,339.3 372.9

2046 -3,170.4 131.6 59.3 72.3 3,411.6 241.2

2047 -3,371.2 130.1 60.2 69.9 3,481.5 110.3

2048 -3,568.7 128.6 60.9 67.7 3,549.2 -19.5

2049 -3,763.2 127.2 61.6 65.6 3,614.8 -148.4

2050 -3,955.0 125.7 62.2 63.5 3,678.3 -276.7

2051 -4,144.6 124.2 62.7 61.6 3,739.9 -404.7

2052 -4,332.4 122.8 63.1 59.7 3,799.6 -532.9

2053 -4,518.9 121.3 63.4 57.9 3,857.4 -661.5

2054 -4,704.6 119.8 63.7 56.1 3,913.5 -791.1

2055 -4,889.6 118.3 64.0 54.4 3,967.9 -921.7

2056 -5,074.2 116.9 64.1 52.8 4,020.6 -1,053.6

2057 -5,258.5 115.4 64.2 51.2 4,071.8 -1,186.7

2058 -5,442.5 114.0 64.2 49.7 4,121.6 -1,321.0

2059 -5,626.1 112.5 64.2 48.3 4,169.9 -1,456.2

2060 -5,809.3 111.1 64.1 47.0 4,216.9 -1,592.4

2061 -5,992.1 109.7 63.9 45.8 4,262.8 -1,729.3

2062 -6,174.3 108.4 63.7 44.6 4,307.4 -1,866.9

2063 -6,356.0 107.0 63.5 43.6 4,351.0 -2,005.1

2064 -6,537.2 105.7 63.1 42.5 4,393.5 -2,143.7

2065 -6,717.8 104.3 62.8 41.5 4,435.0 -2,282.9

2066 -6,898.0 103.0 62.4 40.6 4,475.6 -2,422.5

2067 -7,077.8 101.7 62.1 39.7 4,515.2 -2,562.5

2068 -7,257.0 100.5 61.6 38.8 4,554.1 -2,702.9

2069 -7,435.7 99.2 61.2 38.0 4,592.1 -2,843.6

2070 -7,613.7 98.0 60.8 37.2 4,629.3 -2,984.4

2071 -7,791.0 96.8 60.3 36.5 4,665.8 -3,125.2

2072 -7,967.3 95.6 59.8 35.8 4,701.6 -3,265.6

2073 -8,142.2 94.4 59.3 35.2 4,736.8 -3,405.4

2074 -8,315.6 93.3 58.7 34.6 4,771.4 -3,544.3

2075 -8,487.3 92.1 58.1 34.0 4,805.3 -3,682.0

2076 -8,657.0 91.0 57.5 33.4 4,838.8 -3,818.3

2077 -8,824.7 89.9 56.9 32.9 4,871.7 -3,953.0

2078 -8,990.2 88.7 56.3 32.5 4,904.1 -4,086.0

2079 -9,153.5 87.6 55.7 32.0 4,936.1 -4,217.4

2080 -9,315.0 86.6 55.0 31.5 4,967.7 -4,347.4

2081 -9,474.8 85.5 54.4 31.1 4,998.7 -4,476.1

2082 -9,633.2 84.4 53.8 30.6 5,029.3 -4,603.9

2083 -9,790.5 83.4 53.2 30.1 5,059.5 -4,731.0

2084 -9,946.7 82.3 52.7 29.7 5,089.1 -4,857.6

2085 -10,102.3 81.3 52.1 29.2 5,118.3 -4,984.0

2086 -10,257.1 80.3 51.6 28.7 5,147.0 -5,110.1

2087 -10,411.4 79.2 51.0 28.2 5,175.2 -5,236.2

2088 -10,565.1 78.2 50.5 27.7 5,202.9 -5,362.3

Total 2014-2088 8,677.8 3,474.9 5,202.9

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%. August 24, 2015

(Billions of Dollars, Present Value on 1-1-2014)