SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE MD 21235-0001

June 9, 2011 

The Honorable Kay Bailey Hutchison

United States Senate

Washington, D.C. 20510 

Dear Senator Hutchison: 

We are writing in response to your request on May 26, 2011 for estimates of the financial effects 

on Social Security of a proposal to restore 75-year solvency for Social Security. We have 

worked closely with Ashley Fingarson and John Stoody of your staff in the development of the 

proposal. The estimates provided here reflect our understanding of the intent. All estimates are 

based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report. The estimates presented 

reflect the combined efforts of many in our office, but particularly Dan Nickerson, Jason Schultz, 

Tiffany Bosley, Michael Clingman, Katie Kraft, and Kyle Burkhalter. 

The proposal includes the following two provisions: 

 The Normal Retirement Age (NRA) will increase 3 months each year starting with

individuals reaching age 62 in 2016 and stopping when the NRA reaches age 69 for

individuals reaching age 62 in 2027 and later. The Earliest Eligibility Age (EEA) will be

increased by 3 months per year starting with individuals reaching age 62 in 2016 and will

stop when the EEA reaches age 64 for individuals reaching age 62 in 2023 and later.

 The annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for all OASDI benefits will be computed

for each year starting December 2011 exactly as specified in current law and will then be

reduced by 1 percentage point, but not to less than zero.

The balance of this letter provides a summary of the estimated effects of enacting this proposal 

on the actuarial status of the OASDI program, a description of our understanding of the intent of 

the proposal, and detailed estimates of the effects of enactment.
2

Summary of Effects on Actuarial Status

Figure 1 below illustrates the expected change in the combined Old Age, Survivors Insurance 

(OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund assets, expressed as a percent of annual 

program cost, with enactment of this proposal. Assuming enactment, the OASDI program would 

be expected to be solvent for the next 75 years, under the intermediate assumptions of the 2011

Trustees Report. The level of assets for the theoretical combined OASI and DI Trust Funds 

would remain positive through 2085, permitting full payment of scheduled benefits on a timely 

basis. The level of Trust Fund assets expressed as a percentage of annual program cost would 

decline gradually, but steadily, from 353 percent at the beginning of 2011 to 173 percent of 

annual cost at the beginning of 2085. At the end of the 75-year period, assets in the combined 

trust funds would be declining by 5 percentage points per year relative to annual program cost. 

With enactment of the proposal, the OASDI program would therefore be projected to be solvent 

for the next 75 years but would not meet the requirements of sustainable solvency, which 

additionally requires that trust fund assets be stable or rising as a percent of annual program cost 

at the end of the 75-year period. 

Figure 1. Present Law and Proposal OASDI Trust Fund Assets as 

Percent of Annual Cost: 2011 TR Intermediate Assumptions

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2011 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Trust Fund Ratio

Present Law Trust Fund Ratio

Proposal

Note: Trust Fund Ratio for a given year is the ratio of assets in the combined OASI and DI Trust 

Fund assets at the beginning of the year to the cost of the program during the year.
3

Enactment of the proposal would improve the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by 2.30

percent of taxable payroll, replacing the actuarial deficit of 2.22 percent of taxable payroll under 

current law with a positive actuarial balance of 0.08 percent of payroll.

Figure 2 below illustrates annual projected levels of cost and income as a percent of taxable 

payroll under current law. The projected levels of cost are shown for present-law scheduled and 

payable benefits (when less than the cost for scheduled benefits) and for benefits under this 

proposal. Under this proposal, the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds do not exhaust and, thus, 

payable benefits (expenditures) equal scheduled benefits over the 75-year projection period.

Figure 2. Proposal and Present Law Cost and Non-Interest Income as 

Percent of Taxable Payroll: 2011 TR Intermediate Assumptions

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

2011 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Percent of Present-Law Taxable Payroll

Present Law Non-Interest Income

Present Law Cost

Present Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Non-Interest Income
4

It is also useful to consider the projected cost and income for the OASDI program expressed as a 

percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The graph below illustrates these levels under 

both current law and this proposal. 

Figure 3. Proposal and Present Law Cost and Non-Interest Income 

as Percent of GDP: 2011 TR Intermediate Assumptions

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

2011 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Percent of GDP

Present Law Non-Interest Income

Present Law Cost

Present Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Non-Interest Income
5

Plan Specification for Provisions of the Hutchison Proposal

(1) Increase the Normal Retirement Age and Earliest Eligibility Age

 

Under current law, the normal retirement age (NRA) will increase 2 months per year beginning 

with individuals attaining age 62 in 2017 until it reaches age 67. Thus, the NRA for individuals 

attaining age 62 in 2022 and later is age 67. Individuals who delay receipt of benefits until after 

reaching their NRA receive increases in their benefits (delayed retirement credits) at a rate of 8 

percent for each delayed year up to age 70. The earliest eligibility age (EEA) under current law 

does not change in the future; it remains at age 62. 

This provision would increase the NRA 3 months per year beginning with individuals attaining 

age 62 in 2016 until the NRA reaches age 69. Thus, the NRA for individuals attaining age 62 in 

2027 and later would be age 69. 

This provision also changes the earliest eligibility age (EEA) for retirement benefits from age 62 

to age 64. The EEA would increase 3 months per year starting with individuals attaining age 62 

in 2016 and stopping with individuals attaining age 62 in 2023. For individuals attaining age 62 

after 2023, the EEA would be age 64. We assume that increasing the EEA would increase the 

indexing year (for both PIA bend points and AIME) and the earnings computation period used 

for the AIME. Thus, earnings used in calculating an individual’s average indexed monthly 

earnings (AIME) would continue to be indexed to the second year before the individual’s year of 

initial eligibility. However, we assume no change in the requirements for fully insured status. 

Disabled worker benefits would continue to be payable from the Disability Insurance Trust Fund 

until conversion to retired worker status at NRA. 

This provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by an estimated 0.85

percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 75th projection year (2085) 

by 1.24 percent of payroll.

(2) Modify the Annual Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA)

Under current law, the level of OASDI benefits for individuals eligible for each December are 

increased based on the increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage earners and 

Clerical Workers (CPI-W). The computation quarter for a December COLA is the average level 

of the CPI-W for the third calendar quarter of that year. The COLA is equal to the increase in 

the CPI-W, if any, from the computation quarter used for the last COLA to the current year 

computation quarter. If the increase rounds to zero, or the CPI-W decreased over this period, 

then there is no COLA. 

Under this provision, the COLA would be computed for each December in a two-step process. 

First, a preliminary COLA would be computed exactly as if this provision in this proposal had 

never been enacted. Second, the preliminary COLA would be reduced by 1 percentage point, but 
6

not to less than zero. In years when the preliminary COLA is computed as less than 1.0 percent, 

the final COLA would be zero, and the unused portion of the 1-percentage-point reduction will 

not be retained and carried over to any subsequent COLA. Based on this specification we 

estimate that the average reduction to COLAs in the future will be about 0.937 percentage point.

This provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit by 1.56 percent of 

taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 75th projection year (2085) by 2.10

percent of payroll.

Detailed Financial Results 

Summary Results by Provision

Table A provides estimates of the effects on the OASDI long-range actuarial balance for each 

provision of the proposal separately, and on a combined basis. Summary estimates are also 

provided for the effect on the annual balance (the difference between income rate and the cost 

rate, expressed as a percent of present-law taxable payroll) for the 75th projection year, 2085. 

Benefit Illustrations

Tables B1 and B2 provide illustrative examples of the projected change in benefit levels under 

this proposal for beneficiaries retiring at age 65 in future years at various earnings levels. Table 

B1 compares the changes in initial benefit levels to both scheduled and payable present-law 

benefits. Table B2 compares the changes in benefit levels at ages 65, 75, 85, and 95 to scheduled 

benefits under present law. Table B2 shows that benefit levels under the proposal, relative to 

present law scheduled levels, would be reduced on an accumulating basis for retirees after their 

age of initial eligibility as a result of the reductions to the COLA. Reductions in the COLA 

apply to all benefit levels after 2011, including benefits for retirees who attain 65 in 2011 and 

would therefore have become initially eligible for retirement benefits in 2008.

Trust Fund Operations

Table 1 shows the annual cost and income rates, annual balances, and trust fund ratios for 

OASDI assuming enactment of the proposal. This table also shows the change from present law 

in these cost rates, income rates, and balances. Included at the bottom of this table are 

summarized rates for the 75-year long-range period and the expected year of trust fund 

exhaustion under this proposal. 

Table 1 indicates that the OASDI program is projected to be solvent throughout the 75-year 

projection period assuming enactment of the proposal. After 2011, the trust fund ratio is 

projected to decline slowly but steadily, reaching a projected level of 173 percent of the next 

year’s annual program cost at the beginning of 2085. Because the ratio of trust fund assets to 

annual program cost would be declining by 5 percentage points per year at the end of the 75-year 

period, the proposal does not meet the requirements for sustainable solvency. The actuarial 

deficit for the OASDI program over the 75-year projection period would be improved by an 
7

estimated 2.30 percent of taxable payroll, from an actuarial deficit of 2.22 percent of payroll 

projected under current law to a positive actuarial balance of 0.08 percent of payroll under the 

proposal. 

The annual balance for the OASDI program (non-interest income minus cost) would be 

improved for all years after 2011. The annual balance would be positive for years 2014 through 

2019 and negative for years 2020 and later. However, the annual deficit for years after 2019 

would be substantially smaller than under current law. The annual deficit for 2085 would be 

1.08 percent of payroll, or 3.17 percent of payroll less than under current law. 

Program Transfers and Assets

Column 5 of table 1a provides a projection of asset level for the combined OASI and DI Trust 

Funds under the proposal, expressed in present value January 1, 2011 dollars, using projected 

Trust Fund interest rates. For purpose of comparison, the net OASDI Trust Fund assets, 

expressed in present-value dollars, are also shown for a theoretical Social Security program 

where borrowing authority is assumed for the Trust Funds. Columns 1 through 3 are all zeros 

because no General Fund transfers are specified in this proposal. Gross Domestic Product,

expressed in present value dollars, is shown in column 6 for comparison with other values in the 

table. 

Effect on the Federal Budget and Debt

Table 1b shows the projected effects of enactment of this proposal, in present value discounted 

dollars, on (1) the Federal unified budget and on-budget annual balances, and (2) the levels of 

publicly held debt and total Federal debt. Table 1b.n provides the estimated nominal-dollar 

effects of enactment of the proposal for years 2011 through 2020. All values in these tables 

represent the amount of the change that would be expected due to enactment of the proposal, 

from the level that would be projected under current law. 

The OASDI program is accounted for on an off-budget basis in the Federal Budget and therefore 

does not directly affect the on-budget expenditures or balances. In addition, the OASDI program 

has no direct net effect on the total Federal debt liability, which is comprised of publicly held 

debt plus debt owed to the Federal trust funds. Any accumulated assets in the trust funds, which 

are liabilities of the U.S. Treasury, would instead be borrowed from and owed to the public if the 

trust funds had not run net surpluses over past years. Any changes in OASDI cash flow from 

this or other OASDI legislation do not directly affect total Federal debt, or on-budget annual 

balances. The exception would be a provision that provides specified transfers from the General 

Fund of the Treasury to the trust funds. Such transfers would represent a decrease in the onbudget balance and an increase in the total Federal Debt. As there are no such transfers specified 

in this proposal, values in columns (6) and (7) of tables 1b and 1b.n are zero for this proposal. 

However, when the on-budget and off-budget operations are considered on a “unified” basis, as 

is often the case, any changes in OASDI cash flow (non-interest income and cost) generally 

translate directly into cash-flow effects on the unified budget, and accumulated effects on that 

portion of total Federal debt that is borrowed from the public. The extent to which OASDI 
8

annual cash-flow surpluses and deficits influence other federal spending and tax levels is 

speculative and is not addressed in this analysis. 

The effect of the plan on OASDI program cash flow (column 2) and on unified budget cash flow 

(column 3) is expected to be positive throughout the long-range period. Column 4 provides the 

projected effect of implementing the plan on the Federal debt held by the public. Column 5 

provides the projected effect on the annual unified budget balances, including both the cash flow 

effect in column 3 and the additional interest on the accumulated debt indicated in column 4. 

The projected reduction in publicly held debt under this proposal, $7.2 trillion in present value

by the end of 2085, is exactly equal to the change shown in table 1a, from an OASDI unfunded 

obligation of $6.5 trillion through 2085 to a projected positive OASDI Trust Fund asset level of 

$0.6 trillion at the end of 2085. Thus, under budget scoring convention (which assumes the 

OASDI Trust Funds can and would borrow $6.5 trillion from the General Fund of the Treasury 

through 2085, even though this is not allowed under the law), the total federal debt would be 

unaffected by the proposal. The $7.2 trillion of debt owed to the public would be replaced by a 

net increase in the amount owed to the trust funds of $7.2 trillion. It is important to note that 

these estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report and thus 

are not consistent with estimates made by the OMB or the CBO based on their assumptions. 

Annual Trust Fund Operations as a Percent of GDP

Table 1c provides annual cost, annual expenditures (on a payable basis), and annual non-interest 

income, for the OASDI program expressed as a percentage of GDP. These values are shown for 

both present-law and assuming enactment of the proposal. Showing the annual trust fund flows 

as a percent of GDP provides an additional perspective on these trust fund operations in relation 

to the total value of goods and services produced in the United States.

Effects on Trust Fund Assets and Unfunded Obligations

Table 1d provides estimates of the changes due to the proposal in the level of projected trust 

fund assets under present law and, for years after trust fund exhaustion, the level of unfunded 

obligations under present law. All values in the table are expressed in present-value discounted 

dollars. For the 75-year long-range period as a whole, the present-law unfunded obligation of 

$6.5 trillion in present value is replaced with a positive trust fund balance of $0.6 trillion in 

present value through the end of the period. This change is the combination of the following: 

• A $0.3 trillion net decrease in income from the two provisions of the proposal (column 

2). Revenue from taxation of Social Security benefits is reduced due to diminished 

benefit levels under the proposal provisions. However, this reduction is partially offset 

by expected increased payroll tax revenue from raising the EEA and NRA (individuals 

working more at older ages).

• A $7.5 trillion decrease in cost from the two provisions of the proposal that affect 

OASDI benefits (column 3).
9

We hope these estimates will be helpful. Please let me know if we may provide further 

assistance.

 Sincerely,

Stephen C. Goss, Chief Actuary

 Alice H. Wade, Deputy Chief Actuary

 Christopher J. Chaplain, Supervisory Actuary

Enclosures 
Table A--Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of the Hutchison Proposal 

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1/

(as a percent of payroll) 

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

in 75th year 2/

(as a percent of payroll) 

1) Starting with those age 62 in 2016, do the following: 

a) increase the earliest eligibility age (EEA) by 3 months per 

year until it reaches 64 for those attaining age 62 in 2023 and 

later, and 

b) increase the normal retirement age (NRA) by 3 months 

per year until the NRA reaches 69 for those attaining age 62 

in 2027 and later. .................................................................... 0.85 1.24

2) Reduce the annual cost of living adjustment (COLA) by 1 

percentage point beginning December 2011, but not to less 

than zero. In cases where the unreduced COLA is less than 

1 percentage point, do not carry over the unused reduction 

into future years ......................................................................... 1.56 2.10

Total for provisions 1-2 .......................................................... 2.30 3.17

1/ Under current law, the long-range OASDI actuarial balance is estimated at -2.22 percent of taxable payroll. 

2/ Under current law, the estimated 75th year annual balance is -4.24 percent of taxable payroll. 

Notes: All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2011OASDI Trustees Report. 

 Estimates of individual provisions appear on a stand-alone basis relative to current law, unless otherwise stated. 

SSA/Office of the Chief Actuary 

June 7, 2011
Year Increase

Attain EEA to 64 and Reduced

Age 65 (Wage Indexed (CPI-Indexed NRA to 694 COLA5 Total Scheduled Payable

2011 Dollars) 2011 Dollars)

 

2011 662 662 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 585 773 -13.5 -2.7 -15.8 84 84

2050 586 978 -13.5 -2.7 -15.8 84 108

2080 586 1,365 -13.5 -2.7 -15.8 84 112

 

2011 662 662 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 585 773 -13.5 -2.7 -15.8 84 84

2050 586 978 -13.5 -2.7 -15.8 84 108

2080 586 1,365 -13.5 -2.7 -15.8 84 112

 

2011 662 662 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 585 773 -13.5 -2.7 -15.8 84 84

2050 586 978 -13.5 -2.7 -15.8 84 108

2080 586 1,365 -13.5 -2.7 -15.8 84 112

2011 866 866 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 765 1,012 -13.5 -2.7 -15.8 84 84

2050 766 1,280 -13.5 -2.7 -15.8 84 108

2080 766 1,786 -13.5 -2.7 -15.8 84 112

2011 866 866 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 765 1,012 -13.5 -2.7 -15.8 84 84

2050 766 1,280 -13.5 -2.7 -15.8 84 108

2080 766 1,786 -13.5 -2.7 -15.8 84 112

2011 866 866 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 765 1,012 -13.5 -2.7 -15.8 84 84

2050 766 1,280 -13.5 -2.7 -15.8 84 108

2080 766 1,786 -13.5 -2.7 -15.8 84 112

2011 1,428 1,428 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 1,261 1,667 -13.5 -2.7 -15.8 84 84

2050 1,263 2,109 -13.5 -2.7 -15.8 84 108

2080 1,262 2,943 -13.5 -2.7 -15.8 84 112

2011 1,428 1,428 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 1,261 1,667 -13.5 -2.7 -15.8 84 84

2050 1,263 2,109 -13.5 -2.7 -15.8 84 108

2080 1,262 2,943 -13.5 -2.7 -15.8 84 112

2011 1,892 1,892 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 1,672 2,210 -13.5 -2.7 -15.8 84 84

2050 1,673 2,795 -13.5 -2.7 -15.8 84 108

2080 1,673 3,900 -13.5 -2.7 -15.8 84 112

2011 2,250 2,250 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 2,045 2,703 -13.5 -2.7 -15.8 84 84

2050 2,043 3,412 -13.5 -2.7 -15.8 84 108

2080 2,039 4,754 -13.5 -2.7 -15.8 84 112

1 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2011.

2 Projected percent of new retired worker awards in 2050 closest to AIME levels and years of work.

3 After trust fund exhaustion under present law, continuing taxes are expected to be enough to pay about three fourths of scheduled benefits. 4

5

The EEA increases under this proposal. For these illustrations, we assume the indexing year and the computation period remain as in current law - the indexing year is the year the worker reaches

age 60 and the computation period is 35 years.

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report.

Low-AIME ($19,583 for 20111) 44-Year Scaled Earner (13.4% of Retirees2)

Monthly Benefits3 Percent of Present Law:

June 7, 2011

(Percent change) (Percents)

Maximum-AIME ($106,800 for 20111) Steady Earner (5.6% of Retirees2)

Very-Low-AIME ($10,879 for 20111

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (8.1% of Retirees2)

Very-Low-AIME ($10,879 for 20111

) 20-Year Scaled Earner (6.2% of Retirees2)

Very-Low-AIME ($10,879 for 20111

) 14-Year Scaled Earner (5.2% of Retirees2)

Table B1. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Beginning Benefit Receipt at age 65 

Hutchison Proposal to Increase Retirement Ages and Reduce Annual COLA

Scheduled Benefit Level Percent Change at age 65

Present Law Scheduled Proposal Scheduled Benefit

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration

Starting for individuals reaching age 62 in 2016, increase the EEA and NRA 3 month per year until they reache age 64 and 69. 

Low-AIME ($19,583 for 20111) 30-Year Scaled Earner (6.9% of Retirees2)

Low-AIME ($19,583 for 20111

) 20-Year Scaled Earner (2.7% of Retirees2)

Medium-AIME ($43,518 for 20111

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (27.0% of Retirees2)

Medium-AIME ($43,518 for 20111

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (4.3% of Retirees2)

High-AIME ($69,629 for 20111

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (20.5% of Retirees2)

Starting Dec 2011, reduce annual COLA by 1.0 percentage point, but not to less than zero. The expected average reduction of 0.937 percentage point is reflected in these estimates.
Year 

Attain

Age 65 Age 65 Age 75 Age 85 Age 95

2011 100.0 91.3 83.3 76.0

2030 84.2 76.8 70.1 64.0

2050 84.2 76.8 70.1 64.0

2080 84.2 76.8 70.1 64.0

2011 100.0 91.3 83.3 76.0

2030 84.2 76.8 70.1 64.0

2050 84.2 76.8 70.1 64.0

2080 84.2 76.8 70.1 64.0

2011 100.0 91.3 83.3 76.0

2030 84.2 76.8 70.1 64.0

2050 84.2 76.8 70.1 64.0

2080 84.2 76.8 70.1 64.0

2011 100.0 91.3 83.3 76.0

2030 84.2 76.8 70.1 64.0

2050 84.2 76.8 70.1 64.0

2080 84.2 76.8 70.1 64.0

2011 100.0 91.3 83.3 76.0

2030 84.2 76.8 70.1 64.0

2050 84.2 76.8 70.1 64.0

2080 84.2 76.8 70.1 64.0

2011 100.0 91.3 83.3 76.0

2030 84.2 76.8 70.1 64.0

2050 84.2 76.8 70.1 64.0

2080 84.2 76.8 70.1 64.0

2011 100.0 91.3 83.3 76.0

2030 84.2 76.8 70.1 64.0

2050 84.2 76.8 70.1 64.0

2080 84.2 76.8 70.1 64.0

2011 100.0 91.3 83.3 76.0

2030 84.2 76.8 70.1 64.0

2050 84.2 76.8 70.1 64.0

2080 84.2 76.8 70.1 64.0

2011 100.0 91.3 83.3 76.0

2030 84.2 76.8 70.1 64.0

2050 84.2 76.8 70.1 64.0

2080 84.2 76.8 70.1 64.0

2011 100.0 91.3 83.3 76.0

2030 84.2 76.8 70.1 64.0

2050 84.2 76.8 70.1 64.0

2080 84.2 76.8 70.1 64.0

1 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2011.

2 Projected percent of new retired worker awards in 2050 closest to AIME levels and years of work.

Note: Starting Dec 2011, reduce COLA by 1.0 percentage point, but not less than zero. The expected average reduction of 0.937 percentage point is reflected in these estimates.

Other Changes: 

- ease the EEA and NRA 3 month per year until they reache age 64 and 69. 

The EEA increases under this proposal. For these illustrations, we assume the indexing year and the computation period remain as in current law - the indexing year is the year the worker reaches age 60

and the computation period is 35 years.

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report.

Medium-AIME ($43,518 for 20111) 30-Year Scaled Earner (4.3% of Retirees2)

High-AIME ($69,629 for 20111

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (20.5% of Retirees2)

Maximum-AIME ($106,800 for 20111

) Steady Earner (5.6% of Retirees2)

Low-AIME ($19,583 for 20111

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (13.4% of Retirees2)

Medium-AIME ($43,518 for 20111) 44-Year Scaled Earner (27.0% of Retirees2)

Table B2. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Beginning Benefit Receipt at age 65 

Hutchison Proposal to Increase Retirement Ages and Reduce Annual COLA

Proposal Benefit as Percent of Present Law Scheduled

(Percents)

Low-AIME ($19,583 for 20111) 20-Year Scaled Earner (2.7% of Retirees2)

Very-Low-AIME ($10,879 for 20111) 14-Year Scaled Earner (5.2% of Retirees2)

Very-Low-AIME ($10,879 for 20111) 20-Year Scaled Earner (6.2% of Retirees2)

Very-Low-AIME ($10,879 for 20111) 30-Year Scaled Earner (8.1% of Retirees2)

Low-AIME ($19,583 for 20111

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (6.9% of Retirees2)

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Adminstration June 7, 2011
Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2011 13.35 12.52 -0.82 353 0.00 0.00 0.00

2012 13.14 12.86 -0.28 349 -0.09 0.00 0.09

2013 12.98 12.86 -0.12 347 -0.20 -0.01 0.19

2014 12.87 12.90 0.03 344 -0.31 -0.01 0.30

2015 12.83 12.92 0.09 342 -0.42 -0.02 0.40

2016 12.80 12.95 0.14 341 -0.52 -0.02 0.50

2017 12.82 12.97 0.15 340 -0.64 -0.03 0.61

2018 12.85 13.00 0.14 339 -0.76 -0.03 0.73

2019 12.99 13.01 0.02 337 -0.89 -0.04 0.86

2020 13.16 13.02 -0.14 334 -1.04 -0.04 1.00

2021 13.32 13.04 -0.28 331 -1.19 -0.04 1.16

2022 13.48 13.06 -0.42 327 -1.35 -0.04 1.31

2023 13.63 13.07 -0.56 323 -1.49 -0.04 1.45

2024 13.78 13.09 -0.69 319 -1.63 -0.04 1.58

2025 13.91 13.10 -0.81 315 -1.76 -0.05 1.71

2026 14.05 13.11 -0.94 311 -1.87 -0.05 1.82

2027 14.16 13.12 -1.04 306 -1.99 -0.06 1.93

2028 14.24 13.13 -1.11 301 -2.10 -0.06 2.04

2029 14.30 13.13 -1.17 296 -2.22 -0.07 2.15

2030 14.33 13.14 -1.19 291 -2.32 -0.07 2.25

2031 14.32 13.14 -1.18 287 -2.44 -0.08 2.36

2032 14.31 13.14 -1.17 282 -2.54 -0.08 2.46

2033 14.30 13.15 -1.16 278 -2.63 -0.09 2.54

2034 14.29 13.15 -1.14 274 -2.69 -0.09 2.60

2035 14.26 13.15 -1.12 270 -2.75 -0.10 2.65

2036 14.25 13.15 -1.11 265 -2.78 -0.10 2.68

2037 14.23 13.14 -1.08 261 -2.81 -0.10 2.71

2038 14.18 13.14 -1.04 258 -2.84 -0.11 2.74

2039 14.12 13.14 -0.98 255 -2.87 -0.11 2.76

2040 14.06 13.14 -0.92 252 -2.90 -0.11 2.79

2041 13.98 13.13 -0.85 250 -2.93 -0.11 2.82

2042 13.91 13.13 -0.78 248 -2.96 -0.11 2.84

2043 13.86 13.13 -0.73 247 -2.98 -0.12 2.86

2044 13.81 13.13 -0.68 245 -3.00 -0.12 2.88

2045 13.77 13.13 -0.64 244 -3.02 -0.12 2.90

2046 13.73 13.13 -0.60 244 -3.03 -0.12 2.91

2047 13.70 13.13 -0.57 243 -3.04 -0.12 2.92

2048 13.67 13.13 -0.54 243 -3.05 -0.12 2.93

2049 13.64 13.12 -0.52 242 -3.06 -0.12 2.94

2050 13.61 13.12 -0.49 242 -3.07 -0.12 2.95

2051 13.59 13.12 -0.47 242 -3.09 -0.12 2.97

2052 13.58 13.12 -0.45 243 -3.10 -0.12 2.98

2053 13.58 13.13 -0.45 242 -3.11 -0.12 2.99

2054 13.58 13.13 -0.46 242 -3.12 -0.12 3.00

2055 13.60 13.13 -0.47 242 -3.12 -0.12 3.00

2056 13.62 13.13 -0.49 242 -3.13 -0.12 3.00

2057 13.63 13.13 -0.50 241 -3.13 -0.12 3.01

2058 13.65 13.13 -0.52 240 -3.13 -0.12 3.01

2059 13.66 13.13 -0.53 240 -3.13 -0.12 3.01

2060 13.67 13.13 -0.53 239 -3.14 -0.12 3.01

2061 13.68 13.13 -0.54 238 -3.14 -0.13 3.01

2062 13.68 13.14 -0.55 237 -3.14 -0.13 3.02

2063 13.69 13.14 -0.55 236 -3.15 -0.13 3.02

2064 13.70 13.14 -0.56 235 -3.15 -0.13 3.02

2065 13.71 13.14 -0.57 234 -3.16 -0.13 3.03

2066 13.72 13.14 -0.59 233 -3.16 -0.13 3.04

2067 13.74 13.14 -0.60 232 -3.17 -0.13 3.04

2068 13.76 13.14 -0.62 230 -3.18 -0.13 3.05

2069 13.78 13.14 -0.64 228 -3.19 -0.13 3.06

2070 13.80 13.14 -0.66 227 -3.20 -0.13 3.07

2071 13.83 13.15 -0.68 225 -3.21 -0.13 3.08

2072 13.85 13.15 -0.70 222 -3.22 -0.13 3.09

2073 13.88 13.15 -0.73 220 -3.22 -0.13 3.09

2074 13.91 13.15 -0.76 217 -3.23 -0.13 3.10

2075 13.94 13.15 -0.78 214 -3.24 -0.13 3.11

2076 13.97 13.16 -0.81 211 -3.25 -0.13 3.11

2077 14.00 13.16 -0.84 208 -3.25 -0.13 3.12

2078 14.03 13.16 -0.87 204 -3.26 -0.13 3.12

2079 14.06 13.16 -0.90 201 -3.26 -0.13 3.13

2080 14.09 13.16 -0.93 197 -3.27 -0.13 3.14

2081 14.12 13.17 -0.96 192 -3.28 -0.13 3.14

2082 14.15 13.17 -0.99 188 -3.28 -0.13 3.15

2083 14.19 13.17 -1.02 183 -3.29 -0.14 3.16

2084 14.22 13.17 -1.05 178 -3.30 -0.14 3.16

2085 14.25 13.18 -1.08 173 -3.30 -0.14 3.17

2086 14.29 13.18 -1.11 167 -3.31 -0.14 3.17

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

13.85% 13.93% 0.08% N/A -2.39% -0.09% 2.30%

1 Under present law the year of exhaustion is 2036

Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

Proposal

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll

Change in Present Law

Results for Hutchison Proposal: Increase the NRA to 69 by 2027 and the EEA to 64 by 2023 and reduce the annual COLA by 1 percentage point starting 

December 2011

Year of 

Exhaustion1

Summarized Rates: OASDI

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report

June 7, 2011

Summarized Rates: OASDI

2011 - 2085

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration
Percentage

of Payroll

Annual

Amounts

Accumulated as of 

End of Year

Gross Domestic 

Product

Without General

Fund Transfers

With Plan General

Fund Transfers

(1) (2) (3) (5) (6) (7) (8)

2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,564.6 14,904.1 2,564.6 2,564.6

2012 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,549.6 14,951.5 2,545.0 2,545.0

2013 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,543.4 15,099.9 2,527.9 2,527.9

2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,545.6 15,251.0 2,513.4 2,513.4

2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,551.4 15,351.9 2,496.7 2,496.7

2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,560.2 15,378.4 2,476.9 2,476.9

2017 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,569.3 15,366.5 2,451.1 2,451.1

2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,578.0 15,366.9 2,417.9 2,417.9

2019 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,580.0 15,345.6 2,370.3 2,370.3

2020 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,572.8 15,301.1 2,305.9 2,305.9

2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,557.4 15,242.3 2,224.7 2,224.7

2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,534.4 15,159.1 2,127.6 2,127.6

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,503.9 15,052.7 2,015.9 2,015.9

2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,466.5 14,924.4 1,890.9 1,890.9

2025 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,422.8 14,765.8 1,753.6 1,753.6

2026 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,373.0 14,596.0 1,605.5 1,605.5

2027 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,318.6 14,436.0 1,448.1 1,448.1

2028 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,260.8 14,276.4 1,282.9 1,282.9

2029 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,201.0 14,114.5 1,111.6 1,111.6

2030 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,140.6 13,958.1 935.7 935.7

2031 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,081.6 13,813.5 757.0 757.0

2032 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,023.8 13,670.9 576.1 576.1

2033 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,967.2 13,528.0 393.8 393.8

2034 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,912.2 13,387.2 211.4 211.4

2035 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,858.9 13,245.5 29.8 29.8

2036 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,806.7 13,107.1 -150.6 -150.6

2037 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,756.3 12,971.3 -329.1 -329.1

2038 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,708.6 12,843.4 -504.7 -504.7

2039 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,664.1 12,714.4 -676.9 -676.9

2040 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,623.0 12,582.3 -845.5 -845.5

2041 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,585.4 12,453.7 -1,010.4 -1,010.4

2042 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,551.2 12,326.2 -1,171.6 -1,171.6

2043 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,519.8 12,197.5 -1,329.5 -1,329.5

2044 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,490.7 12,069.4 -1,484.4 -1,484.4

2045 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,463.7 11,941.2 -1,636.3 -1,636.3

2046 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,438.7 11,813.2 -1,785.2 -1,785.2

2047 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,415.2 11,684.0 -1,931.5 -1,931.5

2048 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,393.3 11,555.8 -2,075.1 -2,075.1

2049 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,372.8 11,428.4 -2,216.1 -2,216.1

2050 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,353.6 11,301.9 -2,354.8 -2,354.8

2051 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,335.6 11,175.5 -2,491.4 -2,491.4

2052 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,318.3 11,049.7 -2,626.4 -2,626.4

2053 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,301.3 10,924.7 -2,759.9 -2,759.9

2054 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,284.4 10,800.1 -2,892.1 -2,892.1

2055 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,267.3 10,677.6 -3,023.3 -3,023.3

2056 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,249.7 10,555.1 -3,153.5 -3,153.5

2057 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,231.6 10,434.5 -3,282.7 -3,282.7

2058 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,213.4 10,315.5 -3,410.8 -3,410.8

2059 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,195.0 10,198.7 -3,537.8 -3,537.8

2060 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,176.6 10,084.5 -3,663.4 -3,663.4

2061 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,158.1 9,971.5 -3,787.8 -3,787.8

2062 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,139.7 9,860.0 -3,911.0 -3,911.0

2063 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,121.2 9,750.1 -4,032.9 -4,032.9

2064 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,102.8 9,640.9 -4,153.8 -4,153.8

2065 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,084.2 9,532.4 -4,273.6 -4,273.6

2066 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,065.4 9,425.1 -4,392.6 -4,392.6

2067 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,046.3 9,319.2 -4,510.8 -4,510.8

2068 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,027.0 9,214.2 -4,628.3 -4,628.3

2069 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,007.2 9,109.6 -4,745.1 -4,745.1

2070 0.0 0.0 0.0 987.0 9,005.9 -4,861.5 -4,861.5

2071 0.0 0.0 0.0 966.4 8,903.0 -4,977.2 -4,977.2

2072 0.0 0.0 0.0 945.5 8,801.0 -5,092.4 -5,092.4

2073 0.0 0.0 0.0 924.0 8,699.7 -5,207.2 -5,207.2

2074 0.0 0.0 0.0 901.9 8,599.7 -5,321.6 -5,321.6

2075 0.0 0.0 0.0 879.3 8,500.5 -5,435.5 -5,435.5

2076 0.0 0.0 0.0 856.2 8,402.2 -5,548.9 -5,548.9

2077 0.0 0.0 0.0 832.6 8,304.6 -5,661.8 -5,661.8

2078 0.0 0.0 0.0 808.5 8,207.6 -5,774.2 -5,774.2

2079 0.0 0.0 0.0 784.0 8,111.3 -5,886.2 -5,886.2

2080 0.0 0.0 0.0 758.9 8,015.9 -5,997.7 -5,997.7

2081 0.0 0.0 0.0 733.3 7,921.4 -6,108.7 -6,108.7

2082 0.0 0.0 0.0 707.3 7,827.9 -6,219.3 -6,219.3

2083 0.0 0.0 0.0 680.8 7,734.9 -6,329.5 -6,329.5

2084 0.0 0.0 0.0 653.8 7,642.9 -6,439.2 -6,439.2

2085 0.0 0.0 0.0 626.4 7,552.1 -6,548.4 -6,548.4

Total 2011-2085 0.0

Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report Office of the Chief Actuary

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9% Social Security Administration

June 7, 2011 1

 Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption

 that the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury.

Table 1a - General Fund Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Assets, and Theoretical OASDI Assets

Calendar

Year

Proposal General Fund Transfers Present Value in Billions as of 1-1-2011

Proposal

Total OASDI

Trust Fund

Assets 

at End of Year

Theoretical Social Security1

with Borrowing Authority

Present Value in Billions as of 1-1- 2011

Results for Hutchison Proposal: Increase the NRA to 69 by 2027 and the EEA to 64 by 2023 and reduce the annual COLA by 1 percentage point 

starting December 2011

Net OASDI Trust Fund Assets at End of Year
Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End Of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2012 0.0 4.7 4.7 -4.7 4.7 0.0 0.0

2013 0.0 10.8 10.8 -15.5 11.0 0.0 0.0

2014 0.0 16.7 16.7 -32.2 17.4 0.0 0.0

2015 0.0 22.6 22.6 -54.8 23.9 0.0 0.0

2016 0.0 28.5 28.5 -83.2 30.8 0.0 0.0

2017 0.0 35.0 35.0 -118.2 38.6 0.0 0.0

2018 0.0 42.0 42.0 -160.2 47.3 0.0 0.0

2019 0.0 49.5 49.5 -209.6 56.8 0.0 0.0

2020 0.0 57.2 57.2 -266.8 67.1 0.0 0.0

2021 0.0 65.9 65.9 -332.7 78.8 0.0 0.0

2022 0.0 74.0 74.0 -406.8 90.6 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 81.2 81.2 -488.0 102.1 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 87.7 87.7 -575.7 113.6 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 93.6 93.6 -669.2 125.0 0.0 0.0

2026 0.0 98.3 98.3 -767.5 134.9 0.0 0.0

2027 0.0 102.9 102.9 -870.4 144.9 0.0 0.0

2028 0.0 107.4 107.4 -977.8 155.0 0.0 0.0

2029 0.0 111.6 111.6 -1,089.4 165.0 0.0 0.0

2030 0.0 115.4 115.4 -1,204.8 175.0 0.0 0.0

2031 0.0 119.7 119.7 -1,324.6 185.6 0.0 0.0

2032 0.0 123.2 123.2 -1,447.7 195.5 0.0 0.0

2033 0.0 125.6 125.6 -1,573.4 204.8 0.0 0.0

2034 0.0 127.3 127.3 -1,700.7 213.3 0.0 0.0

2035 0.0 128.4 128.4 -1,829.1 221.3 0.0 0.0

2036 0.0 128.2 128.2 -1,957.3 228.2 0.0 0.0

2037 0.0 128.0 128.0 -2,085.4 235.0 0.0 0.0

2038 0.0 127.9 127.9 -2,213.3 241.9 0.0 0.0

2039 0.0 127.8 127.8 -2,341.0 248.7 0.0 0.0

2040 0.0 127.5 127.5 -2,468.5 255.4 0.0 0.0

2041 0.0 127.3 127.3 -2,595.8 262.2 0.0 0.0

2042 0.0 127.0 127.0 -2,722.8 268.9 0.0 0.0

2043 0.0 126.5 126.5 -2,849.3 275.3 0.0 0.0

2044 0.0 125.8 125.8 -2,975.1 281.5 0.0 0.0

2045 0.0 125.0 125.0 -3,100.0 287.5 0.0 0.0

2046 0.0 123.9 123.9 -3,223.9 293.3 0.0 0.0

2047 0.0 122.7 122.7 -3,346.7 298.9 0.0 0.0

2048 0.0 121.7 121.7 -3,468.3 304.6 0.0 0.0

2049 0.0 120.6 120.6 -3,588.9 310.1 0.0 0.0

2050 0.0 119.5 119.5 -3,708.4 315.7 0.0 0.0

2051 0.0 118.7 118.7 -3,827.1 321.3 0.0 0.0

2052 0.0 117.6 117.6 -3,944.7 326.8 0.0 0.0

2053 0.0 116.5 116.5 -4,061.2 332.1 0.0 0.0

2054 0.0 115.3 115.3 -4,176.5 337.2 0.0 0.0

2055 0.0 114.0 114.0 -4,290.5 342.3 0.0 0.0

2056 0.0 112.6 112.6 -4,403.1 347.1 0.0 0.0

2057 0.0 111.2 111.2 -4,514.3 351.9 0.0 0.0

2058 0.0 109.8 109.8 -4,624.2 356.6 0.0 0.0

2059 0.0 108.6 108.6 -4,732.7 361.3 0.0 0.0

2060 0.0 107.2 107.2 -4,840.0 365.9 0.0 0.0

2061 0.0 105.9 105.9 -4,945.9 370.5 0.0 0.0

2062 0.0 104.7 104.7 -5,050.6 375.0 0.0 0.0

2063 0.0 103.5 103.5 -5,154.1 379.5 0.0 0.0

2064 0.0 102.4 102.4 -5,256.5 384.1 0.0 0.0

2065 0.0 101.3 101.3 -5,357.8 388.5 0.0 0.0

2066 0.0 100.2 100.2 -5,458.0 393.0 0.0 0.0

2067 0.0 99.1 99.1 -5,557.1 397.4 0.0 0.0

2068 0.0 98.1 98.1 -5,655.2 401.8 0.0 0.0

2069 0.0 97.1 97.1 -5,752.3 406.2 0.0 0.0

2070 0.0 96.1 96.1 -5,848.4 410.5 0.0 0.0

2071 0.0 95.2 95.2 -5,943.6 414.8 0.0 0.0

2072 0.0 94.2 94.2 -6,037.9 419.1 0.0 0.0

2073 0.0 93.3 93.3 -6,131.2 423.3 0.0 0.0

2074 0.0 92.3 92.3 -6,223.5 427.4 0.0 0.0

2075 0.0 91.3 91.3 -6,314.8 431.5 0.0 0.0

2076 0.0 90.3 90.3 -6,405.1 435.4 0.0 0.0

2077 0.0 89.3 89.3 -6,494.4 439.4 0.0 0.0

2078 0.0 88.3 88.3 -6,582.8 443.3 0.0 0.0

2079 0.0 87.4 87.4 -6,670.2 447.1 0.0 0.0

2080 0.0 86.4 86.4 -6,756.6 451.0 0.0 0.0

2081 0.0 85.5 85.5 -6,842.1 454.8 0.0 0.0

2082 0.0 84.6 84.6 -6,926.6 458.5 0.0 0.0

2083 0.0 83.6 83.6 -7,010.3 462.2 0.0 0.0

2084 0.0 82.7 82.7 -7,093.0 465.8 0.0 0.0

2085 0.0 81.8 81.8 -7,174.8 469.4 0.0 0.0

0.0 7,174.8 7,174.8

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9% Social Security Administration

Total 2011-85

1

 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table.

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2011

Table 1b - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI 1 (Present Value Dollars)

June 7, 2011

Results for Hutchison Proposal: Increase the NRA to 69 by 2027 and the EEA to 64 by 2023 and reduce the annual COLA by 1 percentage point 

starting December 2011
Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2012 0.0 5.0 5.0 -5.1 5.1 0.0 0.0

2013 0.0 12.0 12.0 -17.6 12.5 0.0 0.0

2014 0.0 19.4 19.4 -38.2 20.6 0.0 0.0

2015 0.0 27.4 27.4 -67.8 29.6 0.0 0.0

2016 0.0 36.1 36.1 -107.8 39.9 0.0 0.0

2017 0.0 46.3 46.3 -160.0 52.2 0.0 0.0

2018 0.0 58.2 58.2 -226.9 66.9 0.0 0.0

2019 0.0 71.9 71.9 -311.1 84.2 0.0 0.0

2020 0.0 87.2 87.2 -415.5 104.3 0.0 0.0

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

June 7, 2011 1

 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table.

Billions of Nominal Dollars

Table 1b.n - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1 (Nominal Dollars)

Results for Hutchison Proposal: Increase the NRA to 69 by 2027 and the EEA to 64 by 2023 and reduce the annual COLA by 1 percentage point 

starting December 2011
Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

2011 4.85 4.85 4.55 4.85 4.85 4.55

2012 4.84 4.84 4.71 4.81 4.81 4.71

2013 4.84 4.84 4.73 4.77 4.77 4.72

2014 4.86 4.86 4.76 4.74 4.74 4.75

2015 4.89 4.89 4.78 4.74 4.74 4.77

2016 4.95 4.95 4.82 4.75 4.75 4.81

2017 5.02 5.02 4.85 4.79 4.79 4.84

2018 5.10 5.10 4.88 4.81 4.81 4.87

2019 5.21 5.21 4.89 4.87 4.87 4.88

2020 5.32 5.32 4.89 4.93 4.93 4.88

2021 5.43 5.43 4.89 4.98 4.98 4.88

2022 5.53 5.53 4.88 5.03 5.03 4.87

2023 5.63 5.63 4.88 5.07 5.07 4.86

2024 5.72 5.72 4.87 5.11 5.11 4.86

2025 5.81 5.81 4.87 5.15 5.15 4.85

2026 5.89 5.89 4.87 5.19 5.19 4.85

2027 5.96 5.96 4.86 5.22 5.22 4.84

2028 6.02 6.02 4.86 5.25 5.25 4.84

2029 6.08 6.08 4.86 5.26 5.26 4.83

2030 6.12 6.12 4.85 5.27 5.27 4.83

2031 6.15 6.15 4.85 5.26 5.26 4.82

2032 6.18 6.18 4.85 5.25 5.25 4.82

2033 6.20 6.20 4.85 5.24 5.24 4.81

2034 6.21 6.21 4.84 5.22 5.22 4.81

2035 6.22 6.22 4.84 5.21 5.21 4.80

2036 6.22 5.05 4.83 5.20 5.20 4.80

2037 6.21 4.83 4.83 5.19 5.19 4.79

2038 6.20 4.82 4.82 5.16 5.16 4.79

2039 6.18 4.82 4.82 5.13 5.13 4.78

2040 6.16 4.81 4.81 5.11 5.11 4.77

2041 6.14 4.81 4.81 5.07 5.07 4.77

2042 6.11 4.80 4.80 5.04 5.04 4.76

2043 6.09 4.79 4.79 5.02 5.02 4.75

2044 6.08 4.79 4.79 4.99 4.99 4.75

2045 6.06 4.78 4.78 4.97 4.97 4.74

2046 6.04 4.77 4.77 4.95 4.95 4.73

2047 6.02 4.77 4.77 4.93 4.93 4.72

2048 6.01 4.76 4.76 4.91 4.91 4.72

2049 5.99 4.75 4.75 4.89 4.89 4.71

2050 5.98 4.74 4.74 4.88 4.88 4.70

2051 5.97 4.74 4.74 4.86 4.86 4.70

2052 5.96 4.73 4.73 4.85 4.85 4.69

2053 5.95 4.73 4.73 4.84 4.84 4.68

2054 5.95 4.72 4.72 4.84 4.84 4.68

2055 5.95 4.71 4.71 4.84 4.84 4.67

2056 5.95 4.71 4.71 4.84 4.84 4.66

2057 5.94 4.70 4.70 4.84 4.84 4.66

2058 5.94 4.69 4.69 4.83 4.83 4.65

2059 5.94 4.69 4.69 4.83 4.83 4.64

2060 5.93 4.68 4.68 4.83 4.83 4.64

2061 5.93 4.68 4.68 4.82 4.82 4.63

2062 5.93 4.67 4.67 4.82 4.82 4.63

2063 5.92 4.66 4.66 4.81 4.81 4.62

2064 5.92 4.66 4.66 4.81 4.81 4.61

2065 5.91 4.65 4.65 4.81 4.81 4.61

2066 5.91 4.64 4.64 4.80 4.80 4.60

2067 5.91 4.64 4.64 4.80 4.80 4.59

2068 5.91 4.63 4.63 4.80 4.80 4.59

2069 5.92 4.63 4.63 4.80 4.80 4.58

2070 5.92 4.62 4.62 4.81 4.81 4.58

2071 5.92 4.62 4.62 4.81 4.81 4.57

2072 5.92 4.61 4.61 4.81 4.81 4.56

2073 5.93 4.60 4.60 4.81 4.81 4.56

2074 5.94 4.60 4.60 4.82 4.82 4.55

2075 5.94 4.59 4.59 4.82 4.82 4.55

2076 5.94 4.59 4.59 4.82 4.82 4.54

2077 5.95 4.58 4.58 4.83 4.83 4.54

2078 5.96 4.58 4.58 4.83 4.83 4.53

2079 5.96 4.58 4.58 4.84 4.84 4.53

2080 5.97 4.57 4.57 4.84 4.84 4.53

2081 5.98 4.57 4.57 4.85 4.85 4.52

2082 5.98 4.56 4.56 4.86 4.86 4.52

2083 5.99 4.56 4.56 4.86 4.86 4.51

2084 6.00 4.56 4.56 4.87 4.87 4.51

2085 6.01 4.55 4.55 4.88 4.88 4.51

Table 1c - Present Law and Proposal Cost, Expenditures, and Income: As Percent of Gross Domestic Product

June 7, 2011

Social Security Administration

Present Law OASDI Proposal OASDI

Calendar

Year

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Results for Hutchison Proposal: Increase the NRA to 69 by 2027 and the EEA to 64 by 2023 and reduce the annual COLA by 1 

percentage point starting December 2011
Year

Present Law OASDI

Trust Fund Assets /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Total Change

Through

End of Year

Proposal OASDI

Trust Fund Assets /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) = cumulative sum(4) (6) = (1)+(5)

2011 2,564.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,564.6

2012 2,545.0 -0.2 -4.8 4.7 4.7 2,549.6

2013 2,527.9 -0.4 -11.2 10.8 15.5 2,543.4

2014 2,513.4 -0.7 -17.5 16.7 32.2 2,545.6

2015 2,496.7 -1.1 -23.6 22.6 54.8 2,551.4

2016 2,476.9 -1.4 -29.9 28.5 83.2 2,560.2

2017 2,451.1 -1.7 -36.6 35.0 118.2 2,569.3

2018 2,417.9 -1.9 -43.8 42.0 160.2 2,578.0

2019 2,370.3 -2.0 -51.5 49.5 209.6 2,580.0

2020 2,305.9 -2.2 -59.4 57.2 266.8 2,572.8

2021 2,224.7 -2.2 -68.1 65.9 332.7 2,557.4

2022 2,127.6 -2.3 -76.3 74.0 406.8 2,534.4

2023 2,015.9 -2.4 -83.6 81.2 488.0 2,503.9

2024 1,890.9 -2.5 -90.2 87.7 575.7 2,466.5

2025 1,753.6 -2.7 -96.3 93.6 669.2 2,422.8

2026 1,605.5 -2.9 -101.2 98.3 767.5 2,373.0

2027 1,448.1 -3.1 -106.1 102.9 870.4 2,318.6

2028 1,282.9 -3.4 -110.8 107.4 977.8 2,260.8

2029 1,111.6 -3.6 -115.2 111.6 1,089.4 2,201.0

2030 935.7 -3.8 -119.2 115.4 1,204.8 2,140.6

2031 757.0 -4.0 -123.8 119.7 1,324.6 2,081.6

2032 576.1 -4.2 -127.4 123.2 1,447.7 2,023.8

2033 393.8 -4.4 -130.1 125.6 1,573.4 1,967.2

2034 211.4 -4.6 -131.9 127.3 1,700.7 1,912.2

2035 29.8 -4.7 -133.1 128.4 1,829.1 1,858.9

2036 -150.6 -4.8 -133.1 128.2 1,957.3 1,806.7

2037 -329.1 -4.9 -133.0 128.0 2,085.4 1,756.3

2038 -504.7 -5.0 -132.9 127.9 2,213.3 1,708.6

2039 -676.9 -5.1 -132.8 127.8 2,341.0 1,664.1

2040 -845.5 -5.1 -132.6 127.5 2,468.5 1,623.0

2041 -1,010.4 -5.1 -132.5 127.3 2,595.8 1,585.4

2042 -1,171.6 -5.1 -132.1 127.0 2,722.8 1,551.2

2043 -1,329.5 -5.1 -131.6 126.5 2,849.3 1,519.8

2044 -1,484.4 -5.1 -130.9 125.8 2,975.1 1,490.7

2045 -1,636.3 -5.1 -130.0 125.0 3,100.0 1,463.7

2046 -1,785.2 -5.1 -128.9 123.9 3,223.9 1,438.7

2047 -1,931.5 -5.0 -127.8 122.7 3,346.7 1,415.2

2048 -2,075.1 -5.0 -126.6 121.7 3,468.3 1,393.3

2049 -2,216.1 -4.9 -125.5 120.6 3,588.9 1,372.8

2050 -2,354.8 -4.9 -124.4 119.5 3,708.4 1,353.6

2051 -2,491.4 -4.9 -123.5 118.7 3,827.1 1,335.6

2052 -2,626.4 -4.8 -122.5 117.6 3,944.7 1,318.3

2053 -2,759.9 -4.8 -121.3 116.5 4,061.2 1,301.3

2054 -2,892.1 -4.7 -120.0 115.3 4,176.5 1,284.4

2055 -3,023.3 -4.7 -118.7 114.0 4,290.5 1,267.3

2056 -3,153.5 -4.6 -117.2 112.6 4,403.1 1,249.7

2057 -3,282.7 -4.6 -115.8 111.2 4,514.3 1,231.6

2058 -3,410.8 -4.6 -114.4 109.8 4,624.2 1,213.4

2059 -3,537.8 -4.5 -113.1 108.6 4,732.7 1,195.0

2060 -3,663.4 -4.5 -111.7 107.2 4,840.0 1,176.6

2061 -3,787.8 -4.5 -110.4 105.9 4,945.9 1,158.1

2062 -3,911.0 -4.4 -109.1 104.7 5,050.6 1,139.7

2063 -4,032.9 -4.4 -107.9 103.5 5,154.1 1,121.2

2064 -4,153.8 -4.4 -106.7 102.4 5,256.5 1,102.8

2065 -4,273.6 -4.3 -105.6 101.3 5,357.8 1,084.2

2066 -4,392.6 -4.3 -104.5 100.2 5,458.0 1,065.4

2067 -4,510.8 -4.2 -103.4 99.1 5,557.1 1,046.3

2068 -4,628.3 -4.2 -102.3 98.1 5,655.2 1,027.0

2069 -4,745.1 -4.2 -101.3 97.1 5,752.3 1,007.2

2070 -4,861.5 -4.1 -100.3 96.1 5,848.4 987.0

2071 -4,977.2 -4.1 -99.3 95.2 5,943.6 966.4

2072 -5,092.4 -4.0 -98.3 94.2 6,037.9 945.5

2073 -5,207.2 -4.0 -97.3 93.3 6,131.2 924.0

2074 -5,321.6 -4.0 -96.3 92.3 6,223.5 901.9

2075 -5,435.5 -3.9 -95.3 91.3 6,314.8 879.3

2076 -5,548.9 -3.9 -94.2 90.3 6,405.1 856.2

2077 -5,661.8 -3.8 -93.2 89.3 6,494.4 832.6

2078 -5,774.2 -3.8 -92.1 88.3 6,582.8 808.5

2079 -5,886.2 -3.8 -91.1 87.4 6,670.2 784.0

2080 -5,997.7 -3.7 -90.1 86.4 6,756.6 758.9

2081 -6,108.7 -3.7 -89.2 85.5 6,842.1 733.3

2082 -6,219.3 -3.7 -88.2 84.6 6,926.6 707.3

2083 -6,329.5 -3.6 -87.3 83.6 7,010.3 680.8

2084 -6,439.2 -3.6 -86.3 82.7 7,093.0 653.8

2085 -6,548.4 -3.5 -85.3 81.8 7,174.8 626.4

Total 2011-2085 -284.6 -7459.4 7174.8

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%. June 7, 2011

(Billions of Dollars, Present Value on 1-1-2011)

Table 1d - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Assets / Unfunded Obligation

Results for Hutchison Proposal: Increase the NRA to 69 by 2027 and the EEA to 64 by 2023 and reduce the annual COLA by 1 

percentage point starting December 2011