Social Security

Memorandum Refer to: TCA

Date: November 4, 2002

To: Robert C. Pozen, John Olin Visiting Professor

Harvard Law School

From: Stephen C. Goss, Chief Actuary

Alice H. Wade, Deputy Chief Actuary 

Subject: Estimates of Financial Effects for a Three-Part Proposal to Reform 

the Social Security Program

This memorandum provides estimates of the financial effects of the three-part proposal 

you have developed for presentation in the Harvard Business Review. This new proposal 

includes several provisions from Model 3 developed by the President’s Commission to 

Strengthen Social Security (PCSSS), but it also differs in several important ways. Like 

the PCSSS Model 3, this proposal includes voluntary personal accounts and other 

provisions that would assure sustainable solvency for the OASDI program throughout the 

next 75 years, and beyond. 

Estimates of the expected effects of this proposal on selected aggregate financial 

measures are provided below. These include the financial operations of the combined 

Trust Funds of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) and the Disability Insurance 

(DI) programs, aggregate flows and accumulations for personal accounts, effects on

annual Federal unified budget balances, and cash flows from the General Fund of the

Treasury to the OASDI Trust Funds. Illustrations of selected individual measures

(expected future total personal account accumulations and expected total benefit levels at

retirement) are not included here as they would be the same as provided for PCSSS

Model 3 in our memorandum dated January 31, 2002.

All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2001 OASDI Trustees 

Report, with additional assumptions related to returns on private securities, individual 

account and annuity administrative expenses, and individual account participation rates. 

These assumptions are described later in the memorandum. 

The new proposal is described in some detail below. As already mentioned, this proposal 

is based on PCSSS Model 3 with three principal modifications. The first modification is 

to replace dedicated transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury with an extension of 

the payroll tax, at a reduced rate of 3.9 percent (about one third of the full 12.4 percent 
2

rate), above the current maximum taxable amount ($84,900 for 2002). The second 

modification is to finance the 2.5-percentage-point government contribution to personal 

accounts from the OASDI Trust Funds only when the ratio of Trust Fund assets exceed

200 percent of the projected cost of the program for the following year. Otherwise the 

government contribution would be made from the General Fund of the Treasury. The 

third modification is to provide additional transfers from the General Fund of the 

Treasury to the Trust Funds whenever the assets fall below 90 percent (rather than 100 

percent) of the projected cost of the OASDI program for the following year.

A. Proposal Specifications 

The proposal is described as having three parts. The first two parts include basic 

provisions that would modify revenue and benefits for the current OASDI program, and 

would restore long-range (75-year) solvency under the intermediate assumptions of the 

2001 Trustees Report. The third part would provide for voluntary personal accounts, 

with benefit offsets, and would include an additional provision to assure sustainable 

solvency for the OASDI program through the next 75 years and beyond.

Part 1. Basic Provision for Payroll Tax Contributions Above the Current Maximum

a) Under current law, the OASDI payroll tax contribution rate (for wages and salaries the 

contribution is split between the employee and the employer) is scheduled to be 12.4 

percent of covered earnings up to the taxable maximum amount, which is $84,900 for 

2002. This provision would provide for a payroll tax contribution rate of 3.9 percent for 

OASDI covered earnings in excess of the current-law “full-rate” taxable maximum 

amount starting in 2004.

b) For the purpose of OASDI benefit computation, earnings subject to the 3.9-percent 

payroll tax contribution rate would be credited in a proportionate manner. Specifically, 

covered earnings for each year 2004 and later that are beyond the full-rate taxable 

maximum would be multiplied by 3.9/12.4 and added to earnings up to the full-rate 

taxable maximum amount. This adjusted taxable earnings amount would be used in 

computing the Social Security average indexed monthly earnings (AIME) used in the 

computation of benefit amounts.

This provision (Part 1) alone would reduce the long-range actuarial deficit by about 0.57 

percent of taxable payroll. However, if earnings above the full-rate taxable maximum 

were not credited in computing OASDI benefits, then a similar overall financial effect 

would be achieved with about a 2.9 percent payroll tax contribution rate. 

Part 2. Additional Basic Provision for Solvency

a.1) Longevity-Indexed Benefits: This provision would slow the growth across 

generations in the primary insurance amount (PIA) for all OASDI beneficiaries by an 

amount that would roughly offset the effects of increasing longevity on the average 
3

duration of benefit receipt for aged beneficiaries. Initially, PIA factors (90, 32, and 15) 

would be scheduled to be adjusted by a successive multiplier of 0.995 annually beginning 

2009. This is about one-half the expected effect of “CPI-Indexing”. This adjustment 

reduces monthly benefit levels by an amount that is roughly equivalent to increasing the 

normal retirement age (NRA) for retired workers by enough to maintain a constant life 

expectancy at NRA, for any fixed age of benefit entitlement. Calculations of this 

adjustment use the mortality assumptions for the intermediate estimates of the 2001 

OASDI Trustees Report and the actuarial reduction factors in current law. Under this 

provision, the 0.995 multiplier would be updated every 10 years (starting after 2010) to 

reflect actual historical increases in longevity as determined by the Social Security 

Administration for the most recent decade (as 2000 to 2010 for the first adjustment) and 

actuarial reduction factors in current law (without regard to the other provisions of this 

proposal). Note that this provision would apply in addition to the NRA increase already 

scheduled in current law. This provision alone would increase the size of the long-range 

OASDI actuarial balance (reduce the actuarial deficit) by an estimated 1.17 percent of 

taxable payroll. 

a.2) Reduce Benefits for High Earners: Gradually reduce the third PIA factor, from 15 to 

10, by 0.25 per year from 2009 through 2028. This reduction would be applied each year 

to the original 15 factor, prior to applying the cumulative effect of provision 1. This 

provision alone would increase the size of the long-range OASDI actuarial balance 

(reduce the actuarial deficit) by an estimated 0.16 percent of taxable payroll. The 

incremental effect of this provision after provision a.1 would be to increase the size of the 

long-range OASDI actuarial balance by an estimated 0.14 percent of taxable payroll. 

b) Modify Actuarial Reduction and Increment Factors: This provision is intended to 

provide a greater marginal incentive to work past the retirement earliest eligibility age 

(EEA). The chart below displays the proposed monthly early retirement reductions that 

would be applicable for retired worker beneficiaries for the first 36 months for which 

benefits are received prior to NRA under both current law and the provision. (Different 

factors apply to aged spouse beneficiaries and aged widow beneficiaries.)

 Monthly Reduction in Benefits for Each of First 36 Months of Retirement 

Before NRA

Age 62 in: 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013+

Present Law 20/36% 20/36% 20/36% 20/36% 20/36% 20/36%

Model 3 20/36% 21/36% 22/36% 23/36% 24/36% 25/36%

Similar increases for aged spouse beneficiaries would be applied, increasing the monthly 

reduction for the first 36 months of entitlement before NRA from 25/36 percent under 

present law to 30/36 percent under the provision.
4

The reductions that are proposed for the fourth and fifth year of benefit entitlement before 

NRA are 12/24% per month (current law reductions are 10/24% per month) for both 

retired worker and aged spouse beneficiaries. The reductions for the fourth and fifth year 

of entitlement before NRA are applicable to all new eligibles who reach age 62 after 

2008.

The ultimate percentages of PIA payable for retired workers by age at initial benefit 

entitlement are shown in the table below. 

 Ultimate Percent of PIA Payable for Retired Worker Beneficiaries by Age at 

Initial Entitlement to Benefits

Age at Initial 

Entitlement: NRA-5 NRA-4 NRA-3 NRA-2 NRA-1 NRA

Present Law 70 75 80 86.7 93.3 100

Model 3 63 69 75 83.3 91.7 100

The percentage of PIA payable for non-disabled aged widow beneficiaries newly eligible 

at age 60 would remain at 71.5 percent. The percentages payable for those newly eligible 

at ages between 60 and the NRA would scale linearly between 71.5 and 100 percent, as 

under present law. 

The delayed retirement credit (DRC) under present law is scheduled to increase to 8% per 

year for workers attaining age 65 after 2007. Under this provision, the DRC would 

continue to increase at the rate of 0.5 percentage point every two years, with the first new 

increase applied to those attaining age 65 in 2010. An ultimate factor of 10 percentage 

points per year would be reached for workers reaching 65 after 2015. The delayed 

retirement credit applies for those months between NRA and age 70 in which no retired 

worker benefit is received. 

Percentage Increase in PIA Per Year of Delayed Retirement after NRA

Age 65 in: 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 2016 & later

Present Law 8 8 8 8 8

Model 3 8 8.5 9 9.5 10

This provision alone would increase the size of the long-range OASDI actuarial balance 

(reduce the actuarial deficit) by an estimated 0.28 percent of taxable payroll.
5

c.1) Enhanced Benefit Level for Low Earners: This provision would gradually raise the 

PIA starting 2009 with an ultimate increase for 2018 and later of 12 percent (relative to 

the level provided under provisions 1 and 2 above) for 30-year minimum wage worker.1 

The combined effect of provisions a.1 and c.1 on such workers is expected to be a PIA

equal to 100 percent of the aged poverty level for 2018. Thereafter, the PIA would 

increase from one generation to the next at a rate that is expected to be about 0.5 percent 

per year faster than the growth in the CPI and the poverty level. Thus, PIA levels for 

such workers would be expected to rise to levels above 100 percent of the aged poverty 

level after 2018. 

The following table illustrates the effect of the benefit enhancement for workers with low 

earnings.

Effect of Provision c.1: Ultimate Percentage Increase in PIA1 for Retirees 

with No Period of Disability

Increase is Relative to PIA multiplied by 0.995 annually, Starting 2009

Average Earnings Level in Years Worked (2002 wage levels)

Number of Quarters of

Minimum

Wage Low

Minimum

Wage X 2 Medium High Maximum

Years of Coverage $5,000 $11,318 $15,875 $22,635 $35,277 $56,443 $84,900

Work (QCs)

Ultimate Percentage Increase in PIA Due to Provision 3 

10 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

15 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

20 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

25 100 6 6 6 4 2 0 0

30 120 12 12 10 7 2 0 0

35 140 15 14 11 7 0 0 0

40 160 18 17 14 9 0 0 0

1

 Ultimate increase is phased in over 10 years, 2009-18. For workers with a given AIME, the increase 

is greater for more than 30 years of work. Increase reduced to 0 for 20 years of work or less.

Based on intermediate assumptions of the 2001 Trustees Report.

The provision would provide the same 12-percent increase for 30-year workers with 

average earnings below that of the 30-year minimum wage worker. This 12-percent 

increase would be reduced for workers with higher career-average earnings levels 

(AIME), reaching 0 for those with AIMEs equal to one-twelfth the average wage 

indexing series (AWI) for the second year prior to benefit eligibility. For workers with 

the same AIME levels, the percentage increase is raised for those with more than 30 years 

of work, reaching about 1.5 times as much (up to 18 percent) for those with 40 years of 

work or more. However, the percentage increase is reduced for workers with fewer than 

 

1

 The “minimum wage worker” is assumed to work 2000 hours each year at a minimum hourly wage rate of 

$5.15 in 2000 and indexed thereafter by growth in the Social Security average wage index. The minimum 

wage worker is assumed not to work after the calendar year in which age 60 is attained.
6

30 years of work, reaching 0 for those with 20 or fewer years of work. Thus, no 

enhancement is provided by this provision for retirees with 20 or fewer years of 

employment. The year-of-work requirements would be “scaled” to the length of the 

elapsed period from age 22 to benefit eligibility for workers who become disabled or die 

before reaching age 62.2 The incremental effect of this provision after provisions a.1 

and a.2 would be to reduce the size of the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by an 

estimated 0.13 percent of taxable payroll. 

The benefit enhancement under this provision would be computed according to the 

following formula:

For all workers with AIME less than one-twelfth the AWI for 2 years prior to eligibility, 

the PIA is multiplied by

1+ applicable percentage × AIME factor × coverage factor.

In the above formula,

• "Applicable percentage" is equal to 1.2 percent for beneficiaries initially eligible in 

2009, 2.4 percent for those initially eligible in 2010, ... , and 12 percent for those 

initially eligible in 2018 and later;

• "AIME factor" is equal to 

if AIME A

if M AIME A

if AIME M

0

(A - AIME)/(A - M) 

1

≥

< <

≤











Here, 

A = AWI for second year before eligibility, divided by 12 and

M = AIME for a 30-year minimum wage worker. 

Note that A as defined for Model 3 is different than A as defined for Model 2.

• "Coverage factor" is equal to the greater of zero and

1+ B× (QCs- 3× elapsed years)/elapsed years

with

otherwise.

if QCs 3 elapsed years

 

1/ 2

1

B

< ×







=

In the above formula for the coverage factor, "QCs" represents the number of 

quarters of coverage earned by the worker prior to benefit eligibility. "Elapsed 

years" represents the number of years starting with the year the worker attains age 

22 through the year prior to benefit eligibility, excluding periods of disabled 

worker entitlement.

 

2

 For example, the PIA of a 15-year minimum wage worker, who becomes disabled at age 42 in 2018, 

would be increased 12 percent because this worker had OASDI covered earnings in three fourths of the 20 

elapsed years.
7

c.2) Increased Benefits for Widow(er)s: Starting 2009, pay all aged surviving spouses 

(aged 62 or older) 75 percent of the benefit that would be received by the couple if both 

were still alive (including all applicable actuarial reductions and delayed retirement 

credits), if this is higher than their current benefit. The benefit provided by this option 

would be limited to what the survivor would receive as a retired worker beneficiary with 

a PIA equal to the average PIA of all retired worker beneficiaries for December of the

year prior to becoming eligible for this option. Actuarial reduction for this limitation 

would be computed as if the survivor had begun receiving a retired worker benefit on the 

earliest of the actual ages upon which benefits began as an aged spouse, an aged 

surviving spouse, or a retired worker beneficiary, but not before 62. This provision 

alone would reduce the size of the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by an estimated 

0.08 percent of taxable payroll. 

The total combined effect of the basic provisions in Parts 1 and 2 of this proposal would 

be to increase the size of the long-range OASDI actuarial balance (reduce the actuarial 

deficit) by an estimated 1.88 percent of taxable payroll. 

Part 3. Individual Accounts and Benefit Offset; General Revenue Transfers

a) Personal Retirement Accounts: Under this proposal, a voluntary option is provided 

starting in 2004 for workers covered under the OASDI program to have an amount equal 

to 2.5 percent of their OASDI taxable earnings, up to $1,000 (value for 2002, and wage 

indexed thereafter) deposited annually in a personal retirement account (PRA). This 

option would be limited to workers who have not yet attained age 55 at the beginning of 

2002. Participation in this option would require that the worker contribute an additional 

1 percent of OASDI taxable earnings to the personal retirement account each year. The 

1-percent additional contribution would be subsidized in a progressive manner with a 

refundable tax credit that would be expected to have a cost (to the General Fund of the 

Treasury) of about 0.15 percent of OASDI taxable earnings if all workers participated. 

b) Benefit Offsets for PRAs: For workers who participate in the PRA option, retirement 

and aged survivor benefits payable based on their earnings will be reduced according to a 

hypothetical account accumulation and annuity computation using a specified “offset 

yield rate”. This hypothetical account and annuity computation would reflect only the 

PRA contributions provided as a redirect of payroll taxes (i.e., the 2.5 percent up to 

$1,000). The offset yield rate for this proposal is 0.5 percent below the realized or 

expected market yield on long-term Treasury bonds for each year. 

The hypothetical account accumulation at retirement would be equal to the worker’s PRA 

contributions (excluding the additional 1-percent) accumulated using the specified offset 

yield rate for each year. The retirement (and aged survivor) benefit offset would be equal 

to the computed amount of a CPI-indexed life annuity purchased with this hypothetical 

accumulation, and based on the expected future mortality, inflation, and real interest rates 

used for the intermediate assumptions of the most recent OASDI Trustees Report. 

Offset annuities would be based on expected unisex mortality for workers who are not 
8

married at retirement. Joint and 2/3 survivor life annuities would be computed for 

workers who are married at retirement, reflecting the actual ages of each spouse. 

c) Financing PRA Contributions: This proposal provides a framework in which the 

voluntary 1-percent additional PRA contributions would be provided by the worker, with 

a progressive subsidy from the General Fund of the Treasury, as described above. For 

those who participate in the 1-percent additional contribution, the 2.5-percent (up to 

$1,000) personal account contribution would be made as a “redirect” of OASI payroll tax 

revenue. Contributions redirected from payroll tax revenue based on wages are assumed 

to be divided equally between employee and employer payroll taxes.

For any year in which the amount of assets in the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds 

would be below 200 percent of the projected program cost for the following year, the 

Trust Funds would be “reimbursed” through a transfer from the General Fund of the 

Treasury for the amount redirected to PRAs. This transfer would be limited in each year 

so as not to raise the level of the Trust Funds above 200 percent of annual program cost.

d) Investment of PRAs: Account contributions would be collected using the existing 

structure for collecting OASDI payroll tax contributions. In addition, account 

contributions would be managed by a central authority in a manner similar to that of the 

Federal Employee Thrift Savings Plan. Initially, available investment choices would be 

limited to a first tier of options that would include several broad index funds (equity, 

government bonds, and corporate and other bonds) plus several balanced funds. After 

several years, the board of the central authority would expand the options to include a 

second tier for individuals who had accumulated some threshold amount in their account. 

The second tier, still managed centrally, would offer a range of funds provided by 

approved private investment firms. The worker would select an investment firm and the 

funds offered by that firm. For both tiers, the central authority would maintain individual 

account records and would combine account transactions in aggregate amounts when 

dealing with the private investment firms.

e) Account Distributions and Taxation: Estimates provided for this proposal assume that 

individuals would not have access to PRA accumulations prior to retirement. Allowing 

such access would diminish the account balance at retirement and thus the available 

retirement income thereafter. For death before retirement, account balances would be 

transferred to the account of the surviving spouse, if any, and otherwise to the worker’s 

estate. 

Upon entitlement to OASI benefits as a retired worker, aged spouse, or aged surviving 

spouse, the worker would have access to the account accumulation. Disabled workers 

would have access to their accounts when they convert to retired worker beneficiaries. 

Under this proposal, individuals would “have the option of converting some or all assets 

in the PRAs to an annuity for the remaining life of the worker and spouse (if any)”. The 

benefit estimates provided for the PCSSS Model 3 assume that all account balances 

would be used to purchase life annuities at retirement, and that married workers would 

purchase joint and 2/3 survivor annuities. To the extent that lump-sum distributions are 
9

taken under the proposal, monthly retirement annuity income would be diminished from 

that presented in our memorandum of January 31, 2002. 

Personal account and annuity distributions would be treated like OASDI benefits for 

personal income tax purposes. 

f) Provision for Additional Transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury: For any 

year in which the combined OASDI Trust Funds would fall below 90 percent of annual 

program cost, transfers would be made from the General Fund of the Treasury to 

maintain the Trust Funds at a level equal to 90 percent of annual outgo. This provision is 

provided to address the “transition costs” associated with the individual account 

provision described above. To the extent to which workers choose to participate in the 

personal account, payroll tax revenue will be redirected from the Trust Funds beginning 

2009, but benefit offsets associated with this option will not rise to substantial levels for 

many years. This provision is intended to maintain OASDI solvency during the period 

for which individual accounts would reduce the net cash flow to the Trust Funds. This 

provision would have the additional effect of assuring that the OASDI Trust Funds would 

never become exhausted and thus the program would always remain solvent in the future. 

B. Assumptions Used for Financial Estimates

All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2001 OASDI Trustees 

Report. This includes the ultimate assumption of a 3-percent ultimate real annual yield 

on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds (based on the effective market yield of all marketable 

Treasury bonds with a remaining duration of more than 4 years). Assumptions other than 

those described below are consistent with those used for Model 3 of the PCSSS (see our 

memorandum dated January 31, 2002).

1. Personal Account Participation

Participation in the personal accounts would be optional. The proportion of workers who 

would voluntarily participate cannot be determined with any degree of certainty. For this 

reason, estimates of the aggregate financial status of the Trust Funds, the effect on the 

Federal unified budget balance, and the effect on cash flows from the General Fund of the 

Treasury to the OASDI Trust Funds are presented in this memorandum for three different 

levels of participation, 0 percent, 67 percent, and 100 percent. 

Estimates for the basic provisions of the proposal (Parts 1 and 2, plus provision f of Part 

3) represent the aggregate financial effects assuming no voluntary participation in 

personal accounts. Estimates presented for 67-percent participation are based on the 

assumption that two thirds of all potential personal account contributions are made. This 

condition could exist if two thirds of workers at every level of earnings participated. This 

condition could also be met, for example, if more than two thirds of high earners 

participated and less than two thirds of the remaining earners participated. Due to the 

size of the personal account contributions and the nature of the benefit offset provisions, 
10

aggregate financial estimates for these models are not very sensitive to the precise 

distribution of participation rates by earnings level, assuming that two thirds of all 

potential personal account contributions are made.

For this proposal, less than 100 percent participation would be expected, and the 67-

percent assumption is likely to be the most appropriate of the assumptions considered. 

Participation would be limited because workers would be required to make an additional 

contribution “out of pocket” of 1 percent of OASDI taxable earnings. Even with a 

subsidy of up to one half from the General Fund of the Treasury, this additional 

contribution would still result in many low earners not participating. 

2. Personal Account Accumulation

Workers are assumed to maintain personal-account portfolios that would have an average 

distribution of 50 percent in equity, 30 percent in corporate bonds, and 20 percent in U.S. 

Treasury long-term bonds. Equities are assumed to have an ultimate real annual yield of 

6.5 percent, and corporate bonds are assumed to have an ultimate real annual yield of 3.5 

percent, or one half of one percentage point higher than assumed for long-term U.S. 

Treasury bonds. An ultimate assumption of an annual administrative expense of 30 basis 

points is assumed for the PRAs, consistent with the specifications of the account 

management. 

The expected ultimate average real portfolio yield for personal accounts would thus be 

4.6 percent, net of administrative expense and is calculated as follows: 

0.5*6.5% + 0.3*3.5% + 0.2*3.0%- 0.3% = 4.6%. 

C. Financial Estimates: Aggregate Measures of Effects on OASDI Financing, 

Personal Accounts, and the Federal Unified Budget

The attached tables reflect effects on the financial status of the OASDI program, 

including the benefit offsets based on contributions to personal accounts. 

1. Financial Operations of the Combined OASDI Trust Funds

The first three tables attached provide year by year detail of the cash flow and Trust Fund 

status for the OASDI program assuming no PRA, or zero participation (Table 1-basic), 

67 percent PRA participation (Table 2-67P), and 100 percent PRA participation (Table 3-

100P). The following table summarizes the effects under the three participation 

assumptions.
11

 Summary of Estimated Effects on OASDI Financial Status

OASDI

Actuarial 

Balance 

(percent of payroll)

First Year

Cash Flow 

Becomes 

Negative

Year 

Cash Flow 

Returns to 

Positive

Year of 

OASDI

Trust Fund 

Exhaustion

Present Law -1.86 2016 NA 2038

Table 1 –basic

 NO PRA Participation 0.02 2024 2051 NA

Table 2-67P

 67% Participation * 0.08 2020 2038 NA

Table 3-100P

 100% Participation 0.10 2018 2035 NA

* Most likely individual account participation rate.

Based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2001 Trustees Report and other assumptions 

described in the text.

 

It should be noted that although the ratio of OASDI Trust Fund assets to annual cost (or 

Trust Fund Ratio, TFR) is declining at the end of the 75-year period for the zeroparticipation assumption, the Trust Funds would never become exhausted because of the 

provision for General Fund Transfers to maintain the TFR at 90 percent.

The column labeled “Addl GF Trans” represents the estimated transfers needed to 

maintain the OASDI TFR at 90 percent. Under these projections, such transfers are only 

needed under the assumption of 100 percent participation in the PRA, and then only for 

years 2039 through 2042.

The column labeled “GF Pay for PRA Contribution” represents the portion of the 

Government match (2.5 percent up to $1,000) that is reimbursed to the Trust Funds from 

the General Fund in order to avoid lowering the TFR below 200 percent.

2. Additional Aggregate Values for Trust Funds and Personal Accounts

A second set of three tables is attached with a letter “a” following the table name. Each 

of these tables provides three additional sets of values where appropriate. All values are 

expressed on a present value basis, i.e., current dollar values discounted to January 1, 

2001 using the projected OASDI Trust Fund yield rates. These values are given for each 

year 2001 through 2076 and include:

• Trust Fund levels under present law (PL) and the proposal as of the end of the 

year,

• Net current accrual for future benefit offset under the proposal as of the end of 

the year, 

• Annual cash flows of the personal accounts, and

• Personal account accumulations as of the end of the year.
12

The Trust Fund levels reflect the projected assets accumulated in the OASDI Trust Funds 

at the end of each year. Because the OASDI program does not have legal authority to 

borrow, these assets cannot become negative. A negative value for a specific year 

represents the unfunded obligation of the OASDI program through the specific year.

Net current accrual for future benefit offset is the currently accrued hypothetical amount 

of prior personal account contributions based on redirected payroll taxes that are 

potentially applicable as a benefit offset in the future. This amount reflects deductions 

for accruals that have already been applied as benefit offsets and for accruals that were 

not applied as offsets because of death by a worker before reaching retirement. It should 

be noted that these accruals shown are expressed in present value as of January 1, 2001, 

discounted at the OASDI Trust Fund yield rates. However, these amounts will actually 

“grow” up to the time they are applied as benefit offsets at the specified benefit offset 

yield rate. It is also important to note that these accruals for future benefit offset are not 

equivalent to Trust Fund assets, as they are not available for payment of current benefits 

if needed. 

Annual dollar flows and accumulations of the personal accounts are presented in the last 

three columns of these tables. These estimates are based on very specific assumptions 

that all personal account assets are converted to CPI-indexed life annuities at retirement 

(see description in the section on assumptions above). In practice, many individuals 

would likely annuitize only part of their personal account accumulation so estimated 

annuity assets are overstated to some degree. However this overstatement might be 

partially offset to the extent that some individuals would choose to purchase a variable 

life annuity instead of the CPI-indexed life annuity. Total personal account and annuity 

assets (referred to as IA/Annuity assets in the tables) include both the assets of personal 

accounts held prior to retirement, and the assets held by the annuity provider after 

retirement. 

3. Effects on Annual Federal Unified Budget Balances

A third set of three tables is attached with a letter “b” following the table name. Each of 

these tables provides a rough estimate of the effects of the proposal on the annual Federal 

unified budget balance for calendar years 2004 through 2076. All values in these tables 

are presented in constant 2001 dollars (i.e., dollar amounts that are indexed back to 2001 

based on the Consumer Price Index, CPI). 

These estimates are based completely on the intermediate assumptions of the 2001 

Trustees Report, including the trust-fund interest assumption (plus additional assumptions 

discussed above), and thus are not consistent with projections made by CBO and OMB 

(which use different assumptions). However, differences in payroll and benefit estimates 

are not large during the first 10 projection years so these values can be viewed as very 

rough approximations of the magnitude of effects on the unified budget balances through 

this period. 
13

The first column in these tables provides the estimated Federal matching contributions 

(2.5 percent up to $1,000) to personal accounts financed by redirecting payroll taxes. 

These contributions are partially or fully reimbursed to the Trust Funds from the General 

Fund of the Treasury for some years. These contributions by the Federal government 

count as expenditures for the Federal unified budget. 

A second column provides the amount of General Fund transfers to the Trust Funds to 

maintain a TFR of at least 90 percent. While these values are included in this table, it 

should be noted that such transfers do not affect the unified budget balance. 

The third column provides the estimated amount of OASDI benefit offset based on earlier 

contributions to personal accounts. These benefit offsets reduce the amount paid to 

beneficiaries by the Trust Funds and thus reduce expenditures for the unified budget. 

The fourth column provides the amount of other changes in OASDI cash flow. These 

include specified modifications to OASDI benefit levels and changes in revenue to the 

Trust Funds based on taxation of benefits and disbursements from personal accounts. 

Transfers from the General Fund to the Trust Funds to maintain OASDI solvency or 

reimburse PRA contribution costs are not included in this amount because they do not 

affect the unified budget balance. 

A fifth column provides the estimated amount of income tax credit provided by the 

General Fund as a subsidy for the 1-percent out-of-pocket personal account contributions. 

This amount is an expenditure for the unified budget balance.

The sixth column provides the estimated “Change in Annual Unified Budget Cash Flow”. 

This value reflects the amounts in the first 5 columns, and thus excludes the effects on 

interest obligations of the Federal government on publicly held debt.

The seventh column provides the estimated cumulative effect of the proposal through the 

end of the year on the amount of Federal debt held by the public, including interest on 

these changes. Note that these estimates assume that no other changes in Federal 

spending or income will occur other than those directly related to the proposal.

The eighth and final column provides the estimated “Change in Annual Unified Budget 

Balance”, which includes changes in interest obligations to the public. 

4. Annual Cash Flows from the General Fund of the Treasury to the OASDI Trust Funds

A fourth set of three tables is attached with a letter “c” following the table name. Each of 

these tables provides the estimated annual net cash flow from the General Fund of the 

Treasury to the OASDI Trust Funds. All values in these tables are presented in constant 

2001 dollars (i.e., dollar amounts that are indexed back to 2001 based on the CPI). 
14

 For comparison purposes, cash flow estimates are provided in each table for three 

different cases:

• The Three-Part Proposal under the indicated assumption for PRA participation

• Present Law OASDI modified to allow borrowing from the General Fund to pay 

scheduled benefits, and 

• Present Law OASDI where only benefits payable with current financing 

provisions are being paid.

For each of these cases three columns are provided. The first column shows either 

estimates of the amount of borrowing needed from the General Fund to pay benefits or 

estimates of the amount of transfers from the General Fund as appropriate to the different 

cases described above. The second column is the estimated total net cash flow from the 

General Fund to the Trust Funds, including transfers and borrowing. The third column is 

the total net cash flow for years starting with 2001 through the end of the given year, 

including accumulated interest on cash flows for the period. 

The fifth set of three tables attached is the same as the fourth, except that values are 

presented in present value, discounted for interest to January 1, 2001.

5. Aggregate Measures of Additional Revenue Needed from the General Fund for 

Solvency

As shown in the first column of Table 2-67P a, the additional revenue needed by OASDI 

under current law to fully pay scheduled benefits throughout the 75-year projection 

period (2001-75) is $3.2 trillion in present value (discounted to January 1, 2001). For 

the three-part proposal described in this memorandum, however, this required amount is 

reduced by about 75 percent, to less than $0.8 trillion in present value. This value is the 

difference between (1) the additional General Revenue amounts projected under the 

proposal for reimbursing Trust Fund PRA contributions in years 2029 through 2068 and 

for maintaining a 90 percent TFR (sum of values in first column of Table 2-67P c, or 

about $1 trillion in present value) and (2) the assets held in the OASDI Trust Funds at the 

end of 2075 ($0.3 trillion in present value, see the second column of Table 2-67P a).

Stephen C. Goss 

Alice H. Wade

 Attachments: 15
Table 1-basic Basic Provisions: PIA-.5%-09+, PIAfac15to10,with12%MinBy2018, Incrs Reduction fac,, Wid 75% of Couple, 3.9%tax>max in 2004

i.e., Without With Ult Real TF Int Rate of 3.0

 PRAs Marginal Net Changes in OASDI

Change Addl OASDI Contrib Rt from--

Cost Income Annual TFR in OASDI GF Contrib PRA GF Pay for

Year Rate* Rate Balance 1-1-yr CntrbRate Trans Rate** Contribs PRA cntrb

2001 10.49 12.72 2.23 239 12.40

2002 10.42 12.72 2.30 264 12.40

2003 10.43 12.73 2.29 289 12.40

2004 8.93 12.69 3.76 313 0 12.40 0

2005 8.98 12.69 3.72 341 0 12.40 0

2006 9.04 12.70 3.66 369 0 12.40 0

2007 9.15 12.71 3.56 395 0 12.40 0

2008 9.27 12.72 3.44 418 0 12.40 0

2009 9.50 12.73 3.23 435 0 12.40 0

2010 9.67 12.75 3.08 452 0 12.40 0

2011 9.84 12.75 2.91 467 0 12.40 0

2012 10.05 12.76 2.71 479 0 12.40 0

2013 10.28 12.76 2.48 488 0 12.40 0

2014 10.53 12.77 2.25 494 0 12.40 0

2015 10.78 12.78 2.00 499 0 12.40 0

2016 11.04 12.79 1.75 501 0 12.40 0

2017 11.31 12.80 1.49 501 0 12.40 0

2018 11.57 12.80 1.23 499 0 12.40 0

2019 11.84 12.81 0.97 495 0 12.40 0

2020 12.10 12.82 0.72 490 0 12.40 0

2021 12.34 12.84 0.49 484 0 12.40 0

2022 12.57 12.85 0.28 477 0 12.40 0

2023 12.78 12.86 0.08 469 0 12.40 0

2024 12.98 12.88 -0.10 461 0 12.40 0

2025 13.16 12.89 -0.27 452 0 12.40 0

2026 13.32 12.90 -0.42 443 0 12.40 0

2027 13.46 12.91 -0.55 433 0 12.40 0

2028 13.58 12.92 -0.66 423 0 12.40 0

2029 13.67 12.93 -0.74 413 0 12.40 0

2030 13.74 12.94 -0.80 403 0 12.40 0

2031 13.80 12.95 -0.85 393 0 12.40 0

2032 13.83 12.96 -0.88 383 0 12.40 0

2033 13.85 12.96 -0.89 373 0 12.40 0

2034 13.84 12.97 -0.88 364 0 12.40 0

2035 13.81 12.97 -0.85 355 0 12.40 0

2036 13.77 12.97 -0.80 346 0 12.40 0

2037 13.72 12.97 -0.75 338 0 12.40 0

2038 13.66 12.98 -0.69 330 0 12.40 0

2039 13.60 12.98 -0.62 322 0 12.40 0

2040 13.53 12.98 -0.55 315 0 12.40 0

2041 13.46 12.98 -0.48 308 0 12.40 0

2042 13.40 12.98 -0.42 302 0 12.40 0

2043 13.33 12.98 -0.36 295 0 12.40 0

2044 13.28 12.98 -0.30 289 0 12.40 0

2045 13.22 12.98 -0.24 284 0 12.40 0

2046 13.17 12.98 -0.19 278 0 12.40 0

2047 13.12 12.98 -0.14 273 0 12.40 0

2048 13.07 12.98 -0.09 267 0 12.40 0

2049 13.03 12.98 -0.05 262 0 12.40 0

2050 12.99 12.98 -0.01 257 0 12.40 0

2051 12.96 12.98 0.02 252 0 12.40 0

2052 12.94 12.98 0.04 247 0 12.40 0

2053 12.92 12.99 0.06 242 0 12.40 0

2054 12.91 12.99 0.07 237 0 12.40 0

2055 12.90 12.99 0.08 232 0 12.40 0

2056 12.90 12.99 0.09 227 0 12.40 0

2057 12.89 12.99 0.10 222 0 12.40 0

2058 12.88 12.99 0.12 217 0 12.40 0

2059 12.87 13.00 0.13 212 0 12.40 0

2060 12.86 13.00 0.14 206 0 12.40 0

2061 12.85 13.00 0.15 201 0 12.40 0

2062 12.84 13.00 0.16 196 0 12.40 0

2063 12.84 13.00 0.16 191 0 12.40 0

2064 12.83 13.00 0.18 185 0 12.40 0

2065 12.82 13.00 0.18 180 0 12.40 0

2066 12.81 13.01 0.19 175 0 12.40 0

2067 12.80 13.01 0.21 169 0 12.40 0

2068 12.79 13.01 0.22 164 0 12.40 0

2069 12.78 13.01 0.23 159 0 12.40 0

2070 12.76 13.01 0.25 153 0 12.40 0

2071 12.74 13.01 0.27 148 0 12.40 0

2072 12.72 13.01 0.29 143 0 12.40 0

2073 12.70 13.01 0.30 138 0 12.40 0

2074 12.68 13.01 0.33 132 0 12.40 0

2075 12.67 13.01 0.34 127 0 12.40 0

2076 12.66 13.01 0.35 122 0 12.40 0

 Summarized

CostRt IncRt ActBal Change in

2001 OASDI OASDI OASDI ActBal

-2075 12.11 12.13 0.02 1.88

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2001 Trustees Report Office of the Actuary

IA invested 50%Equity, 30% CorpBnd, 20%TreasBnd; 0.3%Admin Social Security Administration

* Net of Benefit Offset ** Includes additional net General Fund transfers. October 29, 2002
Table 2-67P 2.5%to$1k in 2004, BenOffst@Ryld=2.5% w 1%addOn, 3.9tax>max in 2004 IA Cntrb 1.965 %, Ben Offset 100.0 % 

IA toEstate With Ult Real TF Int Rate of 3.0 Assumed % Elect PRA

at Death <65 Ult Ave Real Shadow IA Rate of 2.5 66.7% Marginal Net Changes in OASDI

If No Survivor Ave Shadow Annuity Net Yld Rate of 2.5 Change Addl OASDI Contrib Rt from--

TaxIADisburse Cost Income Annual TFR in OASDI GF Contrib PRA GF Pay for

Year Rate* Rate Balance 1-1-yr CntrbRate Trans Rate** Contribs PRA cntrb

2001 10.49 12.72 2.23 239 12.40

2002 10.42 12.72 2.30 264 12.40

2003 10.43 12.73 2.29 289 12.40

2004 8.93 11.72 2.79 313 -0.968 11.43 0.97

2005 8.98 11.71 2.73 331 -0.015 11.42 0.98

2006 9.04 11.70 2.66 348 -0.016 11.40 1.00

2007 9.15 11.70 2.55 362 -0.010 11.39 1.01

2008 9.27 11.70 2.43 375 -0.009 11.38 1.02

2009 9.50 11.71 2.21 382 -0.010 11.37 1.03

2010 9.65 11.71 2.06 390 -0.009 11.36 1.04

2011 9.82 11.70 1.89 395 -0.010 11.35 1.05

2012 10.02 11.70 1.68 398 -0.010 11.34 1.06

2013 10.24 11.70 1.46 398 -0.010 11.33 1.07

2014 10.47 11.70 1.23 396 -0.005 11.33 1.07

2015 10.71 11.71 0.99 393 -0.003 11.32 1.08

2016 10.96 11.71 0.75 387 -0.004 11.32 1.08

2017 11.21 11.71 0.51 380 -0.003 11.32 1.08

2018 11.46 11.72 0.26 371 -0.004 11.31 1.09

2019 11.71 11.72 0.01 360 -0.003 11.31 1.09

2020 11.95 11.73 -0.22 348 -0.004 11.30 1.10

2021 12.17 11.74 -0.43 335 -0.003 11.30 1.10

2022 12.38 11.75 -0.62 321 -0.002 11.30 1.10

2023 12.56 11.76 -0.80 307 -0.002 11.30 1.10

2024 12.74 11.78 -0.96 291 -0.002 11.29 1.11

2025 12.89 11.79 -1.10 276 -0.002 11.29 1.11

2026 13.02 11.80 -1.23 259 -0.002 11.29 1.11

2027 13.14 11.81 -1.33 242 0.000 11.29 1.11

2028 13.23 11.82 -1.41 225 0.000 11.29 1.11

2029 13.29 12.95 -0.35 207 1.110 12.40 1.11 1.11

2030 13.33 12.96 -0.37 198 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2031 13.35 12.97 -0.39 189 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2032 13.36 12.97 -0.38 179 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2033 13.34 12.98 -0.36 170 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2034 13.30 12.99 -0.31 161 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2035 13.23 13.00 -0.24 152 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2036 13.16 13.00 -0.16 144 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2037 13.07 13.01 -0.06 136 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2038 12.97 13.01 0.04 128 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2039 12.87 13.01 0.15 122 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2040 12.76 13.02 0.26 116 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2041 12.65 13.02 0.37 111 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2042 12.55 13.03 0.48 106 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2043 12.44 13.03 0.59 102 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2044 12.34 13.03 0.69 99 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2045 12.25 13.04 0.79 96 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2046 12.15 13.04 0.89 94 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2047 12.06 13.05 0.99 93 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2048 11.97 13.05 1.09 93 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2049 11.88 13.06 1.18 93 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2050 11.81 13.06 1.25 95 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2051 11.75 13.07 1.32 96 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2052 11.69 13.07 1.38 99 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2053 11.64 13.08 1.44 101 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2054 11.60 13.09 1.48 104 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2055 11.57 13.09 1.52 108 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2056 11.53 13.10 1.57 112 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2057 11.50 13.10 1.61 117 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2058 11.46 13.11 1.65 122 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2059 11.43 13.11 1.68 127 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2060 11.40 13.12 1.72 133 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2061 11.37 13.12 1.75 139 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2062 11.34 13.13 1.79 146 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2063 11.32 13.13 1.82 153 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2064 11.29 13.14 1.85 161 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2065 11.27 13.14 1.87 168 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2066 11.25 13.15 1.90 177 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2067 11.22 13.15 1.93 185 0.000 12.40 1.11 1.11

2068 11.20 12.64 1.44 195 -0.511 11.89 1.11 0.60

2069 11.18 12.04 0.87 200 -0.600 11.29 1.11

2070 11.15 12.05 0.90 200 0.000 11.29 1.11

2071 11.12 12.05 0.93 200 0.000 11.29 1.11

2072 11.10 12.05 0.95 201 0.000 11.29 1.11

2073 11.07 12.05 0.98 202 0.000 11.29 1.11

2074 11.05 12.05 1.01 203 0.000 11.29 1.11

2075 11.02 12.06 1.03 204 0.000 11.29 1.11

2076 11.01 12.06 1.05 206 0.000 11.29 1.11

 Summarized

CostRt IncRt ActBal Change in

2001 OASDI OASDI OASDI ActBal

-2075 11.55 11.63 0.08 1.94

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2001 Trustees Report Office of the Actuary

IA invested 50%Equity, 30% CorpBnd, 20%TreasBnd; 0.3%Admin Social Security Administration

* Net of Benefit Offset ** Includes additional net General Fund transfers. October 29, 2002
Table 3-100P 2.5%to$1k in 2004, BenOffst@Ryld=2.5% w 1%addOn, 3.9tax>max in 2004 IA Cntrb 1.965 %, Ben Offset 100.0 % 

IA toEstate With Ult Real TF Int Rate of 3.0 Assumed % Elect PRA

at Death <65 Ult Ave Real Shadow IA Rate of 2.5 100.0% Marginal Net Changes in OASDI

If No Survivor Ave Shadow Annuity Net Yld Rate of 2.5 Change Addl OASDI Contrib Rt from--

TaxIADisburse Cost Income Annual TFR in OASDI GF Contrib PRA GF Pay for

Year Rate* Rate Balance 1-1-yr CntrbRate Trans Rate** Contribs PRA cntrb

2001 10.49 12.72 2.23 239 12.40

2002 10.42 12.72 2.30 264 12.40

2003 10.43 12.73 2.29 289 12.40

2004 8.93 11.24 2.31 313 -1.453 10.95 1.45

2005 8.98 11.22 2.24 325 -0.023 10.92 1.48

2006 9.04 11.20 2.16 337 -0.023 10.90 1.50

2007 9.15 11.20 2.05 346 -0.015 10.89 1.51

2008 9.27 11.19 1.92 354 -0.014 10.87 1.53

2009 9.49 11.19 1.70 356 -0.014 10.86 1.54

2010 9.65 11.19 1.55 359 -0.014 10.84 1.56

2011 9.81 11.18 1.38 359 -0.015 10.83 1.57

2012 10.00 11.17 1.17 357 -0.015 10.81 1.59

2013 10.22 11.17 0.94 353 -0.015 10.80 1.60

2014 10.45 11.17 0.72 347 -0.007 10.79 1.61

2015 10.68 11.17 0.49 339 -0.005 10.79 1.61

2016 10.92 11.17 0.25 330 -0.007 10.78 1.62

2017 11.16 11.17 0.01 318 -0.005 10.77 1.63

2018 11.40 11.18 -0.23 305 -0.007 10.77 1.63

2019 11.64 11.18 -0.46 291 -0.005 10.76 1.64

2020 11.88 11.18 -0.69 275 -0.007 10.76 1.64

2021 12.09 11.19 -0.89 259 -0.005 10.75 1.65

2022 12.28 11.20 -1.07 241 -0.003 10.75 1.65

2023 12.46 11.22 -1.24 223 -0.003 10.74 1.66

2024 12.61 12.89 0.27 204 1.656 12.40 1.66 1.66

2025 12.76 12.90 0.14 197 0.000 12.40 1.66 1.66

2026 12.88 12.91 0.04 190 0.000 12.40 1.67 1.67

2027 12.98 12.93 -0.05 182 0.000 12.40 1.67 1.67

2028 13.06 12.94 -0.11 174 0.000 12.40 1.67 1.67

2029 13.10 12.95 -0.15 165 0.000 12.40 1.67 1.67

2030 13.12 12.96 -0.16 157 0.000 12.40 1.67 1.67

2031 13.13 12.97 -0.15 148 0.000 12.40 1.67 1.67

2032 13.12 12.98 -0.13 140 0.000 12.40 1.67 1.67

2033 13.08 12.99 -0.09 131 0.000 12.40 1.67 1.67

2034 13.02 13.00 -0.02 124 0.000 12.40 1.67 1.67

2035 12.94 13.01 0.07 116 -0.001 12.40 1.67 1.67

2036 12.85 13.01 0.17 109 0.000 12.40 1.67 1.67

2037 12.74 13.02 0.28 103 0.000 12.40 1.67 1.67

2038 12.62 13.03 0.40 98 0.000 12.40 1.67 1.67

2039 12.50 13.13 0.63 93 0.100 0.10 12.50 1.67 1.67

2040 12.37 13.34 0.97 90 0.200 0.30 12.70 1.67 1.67

2041 12.25 13.24 1.00 90 -0.100 0.20 12.60 1.67 1.67

2042 12.12 13.15 1.03 90 -0.100 0.10 12.50 1.67 1.67

2043 12.00 13.06 1.06 90 -0.100 12.40 1.67 1.67

2044 11.88 13.06 1.19 90 0.000 12.40 1.67 1.67

2045 11.76 13.07 1.31 91 0.000 12.40 1.67 1.67

2046 11.64 13.07 1.43 94 0.000 12.40 1.67 1.67

2047 11.53 13.08 1.56 98 0.000 12.40 1.67 1.67

2048 11.42 13.09 1.68 102 0.000 12.40 1.67 1.67

2049 11.31 13.10 1.79 108 0.000 12.40 1.67 1.67

2050 11.22 13.10 1.89 115 0.000 12.40 1.67 1.67

2051 11.14 13.11 1.97 123 0.000 12.40 1.67 1.67

2052 11.07 13.12 2.05 132 0.000 12.40 1.67 1.67

2053 11.01 13.13 2.12 142 0.000 12.40 1.67 1.67

2054 10.95 13.14 2.19 152 0.000 12.40 1.67 1.67

2055 10.90 13.14 2.25 164 0.000 12.40 1.67 1.67

2056 10.85 13.15 2.30 176 0.000 12.40 1.67 1.67

2057 10.80 12.79 1.99 189 -0.366 12.03 1.67 1.30

2058 10.75 11.60 0.85 200 -1.200 10.83 1.67 0.10

2059 10.71 11.61 0.90 200 0.000 10.83 1.67 0.10

2060 10.67 11.51 0.84 200 -0.100 10.73 1.67

2061 10.63 11.52 0.89 200 0.000 10.73 1.67

2062 10.59 11.53 0.94 201 0.000 10.73 1.67

2063 10.56 11.53 0.97 201 0.000 10.73 1.67

2064 10.52 11.54 1.01 202 0.000 10.73 1.67

2065 10.49 11.54 1.05 204 0.000 10.73 1.67

2066 10.46 11.55 1.08 205 0.000 10.73 1.67

2067 10.43 11.55 1.12 208 0.000 10.73 1.67

2068 10.40 11.56 1.16 210 0.000 10.73 1.67

2069 10.38 11.56 1.19 213 0.000 10.73 1.67

2070 10.35 11.57 1.22 216 0.000 10.73 1.67

2071 10.31 11.57 1.26 220 0.000 10.73 1.67

2072 10.28 11.57 1.29 224 0.000 10.73 1.67

2073 10.26 11.58 1.32 228 0.000 10.73 1.67

2074 10.23 11.58 1.35 233 0.000 10.73 1.67

2075 10.20 11.58 1.38 239 0.000 10.73 1.67

2076 10.18 11.58 1.40 244 0.000 10.73 1.67

 Summarized

CostRt IncRt ActBal Change in

2001 OASDI OASDI OASDI ActBal

-2075 11.26 11.36 0.10 1.96

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2001 Trustees Report Office of the Actuary

IA invested 50%Equity, 30% CorpBnd, 20%TreasBnd; 0.3%Admin Social Security Administration

* Net of Benefit Offset ** Includes additional net General Fund transfers. October 29, 2002
Table 1-basic a Basic Provisions: PIA-.5%-09+, PIAfac15to10,with12%MinBy2018, Incrs Reduction fac,, Wid 75% of Couple, 3.9%tax>max in 2004

i.e., Without With Ult Real Int Rate of 3.0

 PRAs

PL TF EOY* PROP TF

Year (billions of PV$ 1/1/2001)

2001 1,139 1,139

2002 1,230 1,230

2003 1,320 1,320

2004 1,407 1,432

2005 1,491 1,542

2006 1,570 1,647

2007 1,644 1,748

2008 1,711 1,841

2009 1,771 1,924

2010 1,824 1,999

2011 1,867 2,066

2012 1,901 2,124

2013 1,925 2,171

2014 1,937 2,209

2015 1,938 2,236

2016 1,928 2,253

2017 1,906 2,259

2018 1,873 2,256

2019 1,829 2,243

2020 1,775 2,221

2021 1,712 2,191

2022 1,641 2,155

2023 1,562 2,112

2024 1,476 2,063

2025 1,384 2,010

2026 1,287 1,952

2027 1,186 1,891

2028 1,080 1,828

2029 972 1,763

2030 861 1,698

2031 749 1,632

2032 636 1,566

2033 523 1,502

2034 410 1,438

2035 298 1,376

2036 188 1,317

2037 79 1,260

2038 -27 1,206

2039 -131 1,154

2040 -233 1,105

2041 -333 1,058

2042 -430 1,014

2043 -526 972

2044 -620 933

2045 -713 895

2046 -804 859

2047 -893 826

2048 -982 793

2049 -1,069 763

2050 -1,156 733

2051 -1,242 705

2052 -1,327 678

2053 -1,412 652

2054 -1,496 626

2055 -1,580 601

2056 -1,664 577

2057 -1,747 553

2058 -1,830 530

2059 -1,912 508

2060 -1,994 486

2061 -2,076 464

2062 -2,157 444

2063 -2,238 423

2064 -2,318 404

2065 -2,397 384

2066 -2,476 366

2067 -2,554 348

2068 -2,632 330

2069 -2,709 313

2070 -2,785 296

2071 -2,861 280

2072 -2,936 265

2073 -3,010 250

2074 -3,084 236

2075 -3,157 222

2076 -3,230 209

*Negative values represent unfunded obligation through the year.

Office of the Actuary

Social Security Administration

 October 29, 2002
Table 2-67P a 2.5%to$1k in 2004, BenOffst@Ryld=2.5% w 1%addOn, 3.9tax>max in 2004

Assumed With Ult Real Int Rate of 3 IA/Annuity Operations Including 1% Add On IA

% Elect PRA Ult Ave Real Shadow IA Rate of 2.5 Ult Ave Real IA Rate of 4.6

66.7% Ave Shadow Annuity Net Yld Rate of 2.5 Net Ave IA Annuity Net Yld Rate of 3

Shadow IA/Annuity IA Contribs IA Disburse

PL TF EOY* PROP TF Accrual 1/ Assets EOY in Year in Year

Year (billions of PV$ 1/1/2001) (billions of PV$ 1/1/2001)

2001 1,139 1,139

2002 1,230 1,230 0 0 0.0 0.0

2003 1,320 1,320 0 0 0.0 0.0

2004 1,407 1,387 44 67 67.1 0.0

2005 1,491 1,453 89 136 67.4 0.0

2006 1,570 1,513 133 206 67.7 0.0

2007 1,644 1,569 177 277 67.5 0.0

2008 1,711 1,617 221 349 67.3 0.0

2009 1,771 1,656 264 421 67.1 0.4

2010 1,824 1,687 306 493 66.9 0.8

2011 1,867 1,711 348 566 66.8 1.3

2012 1,901 1,726 389 638 66.6 1.9

2013 1,925 1,732 429 711 66.3 2.5

2014 1,937 1,728 468 783 65.6 3.2

2015 1,938 1,715 506 854 64.8 4.0

2016 1,928 1,692 543 925 64.0 4.9

2017 1,906 1,661 578 995 63.2 5.8

2018 1,873 1,621 612 1,064 62.4 6.8

2019 1,829 1,572 645 1,131 61.6 7.8

2020 1,775 1,516 676 1,198 60.8 9.0

2021 1,712 1,452 706 1,263 59.9 10.2

2022 1,641 1,383 735 1,327 59.0 11.4

2023 1,562 1,310 762 1,389 58.1 12.8

2024 1,476 1,232 788 1,449 57.3 14.2

2025 1,384 1,150 812 1,508 56.4 15.6

2026 1,287 1,066 834 1,565 55.5 17.1

2027 1,186 980 856 1,620 54.6 18.7

2028 1,080 893 876 1,673 53.7 20.3

2029 972 841 894 1,723 52.8 22.0

2030 861 788 911 1,772 51.9 23.7

2031 749 737 926 1,818 51.0 25.5

2032 636 686 940 1,862 50.2 27.3

2033 523 637 953 1,904 49.4 29.2

2034 410 590 964 1,943 48.6 31.1

2035 298 545 974 1,979 47.8 33.0

2036 188 504 982 2,013 47.1 35.0

2037 79 466 989 2,045 46.3 37.0

2038 -27 431 995 2,074 45.6 39.0

2039 -131 400 1,000 2,100 44.8 41.0

2040 -233 372 1,003 2,123 44.1 43.1

2041 -333 348 1,005 2,144 43.4 45.1

2042 -430 327 1,006 2,161 42.7 47.2

2043 -526 309 1,006 2,176 42.0 49.4

2044 -620 293 1,004 2,187 41.3 51.5

2045 -713 281 1,002 2,196 40.6 53.5

2046 -804 271 998 2,202 39.9 55.5

2047 -893 263 994 2,205 39.2 57.8

2048 -982 258 988 2,204 38.5 59.9

2049 -1,069 255 981 2,201 37.8 61.7

2050 -1,156 254 974 2,195 37.2 63.2

2051 -1,242 254 966 2,187 36.5 64.5

2052 -1,327 255 957 2,177 35.9 65.7

2053 -1,412 258 948 2,165 35.3 66.9

2054 -1,496 261 938 2,151 34.7 67.9

2055 -1,580 266 928 2,135 34.0 68.7

2056 -1,664 271 917 2,117 33.4 69.5

2057 -1,747 276 906 2,098 32.9 70.2

2058 -1,830 283 895 2,077 32.3 70.7

2059 -1,912 290 883 2,055 31.7 71.1

2060 -1,994 297 871 2,032 31.2 71.5

2061 -2,076 305 859 2,008 30.6 71.7

2062 -2,157 314 847 1,983 30.1 71.8

2063 -2,238 323 834 1,958 29.5 71.8

2064 -2,318 332 822 1,933 29.0 71.7

2065 -2,397 342 809 1,907 28.5 71.5

2066 -2,476 351 797 1,881 28.0 71.3

2067 -2,554 361 784 1,854 27.5 70.9

2068 -2,632 364 771 1,826 27.0 70.5

2069 -2,709 357 759 1,798 26.6 70.0

2070 -2,785 350 746 1,770 26.1 69.4

2071 -2,861 344 734 1,742 25.6 68.8

2072 -2,936 339 721 1,714 25.2 68.1

2073 -3,010 334 709 1,686 24.7 67.3

2074 -3,084 330 697 1,658 24.3 66.5

2075 -3,157 326 685 1,630 23.8 65.7

2076 -3,230 322 673 1,602 23.4 64.9

IA invested 50%Equity, 30% CorpBnd, 20%TreasBnd; 0.3%Admin

1/ Shadow account accruals for future benefit offsets. Office of the Actuary

*Negative values represent unfunded obligation through the year. Social Security Administration

 October 29, 2002
Table 3-100P a 2.5%to$1k in 2004, BenOffst@Ryld=2.5% w 1%addOn, 3.9tax>max in 2004

Assumed With Ult Real Int Rate of 3 IA/Annuity Operations Including 1% Add On IA

% Elect PRA Ult Ave Real Shadow IA Rate of 2.5 Ult Ave Real IA Rate of 4.6

100.0% Ave Shadow Annuity Net Yld Rate of 2.5 Net Ave IA Annuity Net Yld Rate of 3

Shadow IA/Annuity IA Contribs IA Disburse

PL TF EOY* PROP TF Accrual 1/ Assets EOY in Year in Year

Year (billions of PV$ 1/1/2001) (billions of PV$ 1/1/2001)

2001 1,139 1,139

2002 1,230 1,230 0 0 0.0 0.0

2003 1,320 1,320 0 0 0.0 0.0

2004 1,407 1,365 67 101 100.6 0.0

2005 1,491 1,408 133 204 101.1 0.0

2006 1,570 1,446 200 309 101.6 0.0

2007 1,644 1,479 265 416 101.3 0.0

2008 1,711 1,506 331 523 101.0 0.0

2009 1,771 1,522 395 631 100.7 0.6

2010 1,824 1,532 459 739 100.3 1.2

2011 1,867 1,534 522 848 100.2 2.0

2012 1,901 1,527 583 957 99.9 2.8

2013 1,925 1,512 644 1,066 99.4 3.8

2014 1,937 1,487 702 1,175 98.4 4.8

2015 1,938 1,454 759 1,282 97.2 6.0

2016 1,928 1,412 814 1,388 96.0 7.3

2017 1,906 1,362 867 1,492 94.8 8.7

2018 1,873 1,303 918 1,596 93.6 10.2

2019 1,829 1,237 967 1,697 92.4 11.8

2020 1,775 1,163 1,014 1,797 91.2 13.5

2021 1,712 1,083 1,059 1,894 89.9 15.3

2022 1,641 998 1,102 1,990 88.6 17.2

2023 1,562 909 1,143 2,083 87.2 19.2

2024 1,476 873 1,181 2,174 85.9 21.2

2025 1,384 834 1,218 2,262 84.6 23.4

2026 1,287 791 1,252 2,347 83.3 25.7

2027 1,186 747 1,284 2,430 81.9 28.0

2028 1,080 701 1,313 2,509 80.5 30.5

2029 972 655 1,341 2,585 79.2 33.0

2030 861 609 1,366 2,658 77.8 35.6

2031 749 565 1,389 2,727 76.6 38.3

2032 636 521 1,410 2,793 75.3 41.0

2033 523 480 1,429 2,855 74.1 43.8

2034 410 441 1,446 2,914 72.9 46.6

2035 298 406 1,460 2,969 71.8 49.5

2036 188 373 1,473 3,020 70.6 52.4

2037 79 345 1,484 3,067 69.5 55.4

2038 -27 320 1,493 3,111 68.4 58.4

2039 -131 302 1,500 3,150 67.3 61.5

2040 -233 293 1,505 3,185 66.2 64.6

2041 -333 284 1,508 3,215 65.1 67.7

2042 -430 277 1,509 3,242 64.0 70.9

2043 -526 271 1,509 3,264 62.9 74.0

2044 -620 268 1,507 3,281 61.9 77.2

2045 -713 268 1,503 3,294 60.8 80.2

2046 -804 270 1,498 3,303 59.8 83.3

2047 -893 276 1,491 3,307 58.8 86.7

2048 -982 284 1,482 3,306 57.8 89.8

2049 -1,069 295 1,472 3,301 56.8 92.6

2050 -1,156 308 1,461 3,293 55.8 94.8

2051 -1,242 322 1,449 3,281 54.8 96.8

2052 -1,327 338 1,436 3,265 53.8 98.6

2053 -1,412 355 1,422 3,247 52.9 100.3

2054 -1,496 373 1,407 3,226 52.0 101.8

2055 -1,580 392 1,392 3,202 51.1 103.1

2056 -1,664 412 1,376 3,176 50.2 104.2

2057 -1,747 425 1,359 3,147 49.3 105.2

2058 -1,830 416 1,342 3,116 48.4 106.0

2059 -1,912 408 1,325 3,083 47.6 106.7

2060 -1,994 399 1,307 3,048 46.7 107.2

2061 -2,076 392 1,289 3,012 45.9 107.5

2062 -2,157 385 1,270 2,974 45.1 107.7

2063 -2,238 379 1,251 2,938 44.3 107.7

2064 -2,318 374 1,233 2,900 43.5 107.6

2065 -2,397 369 1,214 2,861 42.8 107.3

2066 -2,476 366 1,195 2,821 42.0 106.9

2067 -2,554 362 1,176 2,780 41.3 106.4

2068 -2,632 360 1,157 2,739 40.5 105.7

2069 -2,709 358 1,138 2,698 39.8 105.0

2070 -2,785 357 1,119 2,656 39.1 104.1

2071 -2,861 356 1,101 2,614 38.4 103.2

2072 -2,936 355 1,082 2,571 37.8 102.1

2073 -3,010 355 1,064 2,529 37.1 101.0

2074 -3,084 356 1,046 2,487 36.4 99.8

2075 -3,157 357 1,028 2,445 35.8 98.6

2076 -3,230 358 1,010 2,403 35.1 97.3

IA invested 50%Equity, 30% CorpBnd, 20%TreasBnd; 0.3%Admin

1/ Shadow account accruals for future benefit offsets. Office of the Actuary

*Negative values represent unfunded obligation through the year. Social Security Administration

 October 29, 2002
Table 1-basic b Unified Budget Effects

i.e., Without

 PRAs Contribs to GenFnd Offset to Other Tax Change Change Change

PRA by Fed Transfer to OASI Ben Changes Credit in Annual in Debt in Ann

Govt Based OASDI from PRA in OASDI for UnifBudg Held by UnifBudg

 Year on Earnings for 90 TFR CashFlow Addon CashFlow Public Balance

(NoEffectonUB) lessGFTrans (EOY)

 (Billions of Constant 2001 $)

2002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.5 0.0 28.5 -29.4 29.4

2005 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.1 0.0 31.1 -62.3 33.8

2006 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.7 0.0 31.7 -96.8 36.5

2007 0.0 0.0 0.0 32.4 0.0 32.4 -133.0 39.3

2008 0.0 0.0 0.0 32.9 0.0 32.9 -170.8 42.0

2009 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.8 0.0 29.8 -206.5 41.2

2010 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.1 0.0 31.1 -244.6 44.7

2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 32.4 0.0 32.4 -285.1 48.4

2012 0.0 0.0 0.0 34.0 0.0 34.0 -328.6 52.6

2013 0.0 0.0 0.0 36.0 0.0 36.0 -375.4 57.3

2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.3 0.0 38.3 -426.1 62.6

2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.9 0.0 40.9 -481.1 68.6

2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 43.9 0.0 43.9 -540.8 75.1

2017 0.0 0.0 0.0 47.2 0.0 47.2 -605.7 82.2

2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.8 0.0 50.8 -676.2 89.9

2019 0.0 0.0 0.0 54.4 0.0 54.4 -752.7 98.1

2020 0.0 0.0 0.0 58.4 0.0 58.4 -835.5 106.8

2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 62.4 0.0 62.4 -924.9 116.1

2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 66.7 0.0 66.7 -1,021.4 126.1

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 71.2 0.0 71.2 -1,125.5 136.7

2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 75.9 0.0 75.9 -1,237.6 148.0

2025 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.8 0.0 80.8 -1,358.1 160.1

2026 0.0 0.0 0.0 86.0 0.0 86.0 -1,487.6 172.9

2027 0.0 0.0 0.0 91.5 0.0 91.5 -1,626.6 186.5

2028 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.3 0.0 97.3 -1,775.7 201.1

2029 0.0 0.0 0.0 103.3 0.0 103.3 -1,935.6 216.6

2030 0.0 0.0 0.0 109.6 0.0 109.6 -2,106.7 233.0

2031 0.0 0.0 0.0 116.1 0.0 116.1 -2,289.7 250.3

2032 0.0 0.0 0.0 122.7 0.0 122.7 -2,485.0 268.4

2033 0.0 0.0 0.0 129.4 0.0 129.4 -2,693.0 287.4

2034 0.0 0.0 0.0 135.8 0.0 135.8 -2,913.9 306.9

2035 0.0 0.0 0.0 142.0 0.0 142.0 -3,147.8 327.0

2036 0.0 0.0 0.0 148.2 0.0 148.2 -3,395.1 347.9

2037 0.0 0.0 0.0 154.5 0.0 154.5 -3,656.3 369.6

2038 0.0 0.0 0.0 160.7 0.0 160.7 -3,931.8 392.3

2039 0.0 0.0 0.0 167.0 0.0 167.0 -4,222.0 415.8

2040 0.0 0.0 0.0 173.2 0.0 173.2 -4,527.3 440.2

2041 0.0 0.0 0.0 179.7 0.0 179.7 -4,848.5 465.8

2042 0.0 0.0 0.0 186.5 0.0 186.5 -5,186.4 492.7

2043 0.0 0.0 0.0 193.5 0.0 193.5 -5,541.6 520.9

2044 0.0 0.0 0.0 201.0 0.0 201.0 -5,915.1 550.6

2045 0.0 0.0 0.0 208.7 0.0 208.7 -6,307.9 581.7

2046 0.0 0.0 0.0 216.7 0.0 216.7 -6,720.7 614.3

2047 0.0 0.0 0.0 225.1 0.0 225.1 -7,154.5 648.5

2048 0.0 0.0 0.0 233.8 0.0 233.8 -7,610.3 684.3

2049 0.0 0.0 0.0 242.8 0.0 242.8 -8,089.0 721.9

2050 0.0 0.0 0.0 252.0 0.0 252.0 -8,591.7 761.1

2051 0.0 0.0 0.0 261.6 0.0 261.6 -9,119.3 802.1

2052 0.0 0.0 0.0 271.4 0.0 271.4 -9,672.8 844.8

2053 0.0 0.0 0.0 281.5 0.0 281.5 -10,253.4 889.6

2054 0.0 0.0 0.0 291.6 0.0 291.6 -10,861.7 935.9

2055 0.0 0.0 0.0 301.8 0.0 301.8 -11,498.9 984.1

2056 0.0 0.0 0.0 312.5 0.0 312.5 -12,166.2 1,034.6

2057 0.0 0.0 0.0 323.4 0.0 323.4 -12,864.7 1,087.2

2058 0.0 0.0 0.0 334.6 0.0 334.6 -13,595.8 1,142.0

2059 0.0 0.0 0.0 345.6 0.0 345.6 -14,360.1 1,198.7

2060 0.0 0.0 0.0 356.6 0.0 356.6 -15,158.8 1,257.4

2061 0.0 0.0 0.0 368.1 0.0 368.1 -15,993.3 1,318.7

2062 0.0 0.0 0.0 379.5 0.0 379.5 -16,864.5 1,382.2

2063 0.0 0.0 0.0 390.7 0.0 390.7 -17,773.5 1,447.7

2064 0.0 0.0 0.0 402.4 0.0 402.4 -18,721.8 1,516.1

2065 0.0 0.0 0.0 414.1 0.0 414.1 -19,710.6 1,586.9

2066 0.0 0.0 0.0 425.7 0.0 425.7 -20,741.1 1,660.1

2067 0.0 0.0 0.0 438.1 0.0 438.1 -21,815.2 1,736.7

2068 0.0 0.0 0.0 450.5 0.0 450.5 -22,934.3 1,816.0

2069 0.0 0.0 0.0 463.0 0.0 463.0 -24,099.9 1,898.3

2070 0.0 0.0 0.0 476.1 0.0 476.1 -25,314.1 1,984.0

2071 0.0 0.0 0.0 489.9 0.0 489.9 -26,578.9 2,073.5

2072 0.0 0.0 0.0 503.7 0.0 503.7 -27,895.8 2,166.0

2073 0.0 0.0 0.0 517.8 0.0 517.8 -29,266.8 2,262.2

2074 0.0 0.0 0.0 532.5 0.0 532.5 -30,694.1 2,362.3

2075 0.0 0.0 0.0 546.8 0.0 546.8 -32,178.9 2,465.3

2076 0.0 0.0 0.0 561.1 0.0 561.1 -33,723.1 2,572.2

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2001 Trustees Report

 With Ult Real Int Rate of 3.0 TF,

Office of the Actuary

Social Security Administration

 October 29, 2002
Table 2-67P b Unified Budget Effects

Assumed IA Cntrb 1.965 %, Benefit Offset 100.0 %

% Elect PRA Contribs to GenFnd Offset to Other Tax Change Change Change

66.7% PRA by Fed Transfer to OASI Ben Changes Credit in Annual in Debt in Ann

Govt Based OASDI from PRA in OASDI for UnifBudg Held by UnifBudg

 Year on Earnings for 90 TFR CashFlow Addon CashFlow Public Balance

(NoEffectonUB) lessGFTrans (EOY)

 (Billions of Constant 2001 $)

2002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2004 50.7 0.0 0.0 28.5 3.9 -26.1 26.9 -26.9

2005 52.4 0.0 0.0 31.1 4.0 -25.4 53.8 -27.8

2006 54.2 0.0 0.0 31.7 4.1 -26.6 82.9 -30.7

2007 55.6 0.0 0.0 32.4 4.2 -27.5 113.7 -33.4

2008 57.1 0.0 0.0 32.9 4.4 -28.5 146.4 -36.3

2009 58.6 0.0 0.4 29.8 4.5 -32.9 184.5 -42.8

2010 60.1 0.0 0.8 31.1 4.6 -32.7 223.6 -45.0

2011 61.8 0.0 1.3 32.4 4.7 -32.7 263.9 -47.4

2012 63.3 0.0 1.9 34.1 4.8 -32.2 304.9 -49.4

2013 64.9 0.0 2.5 36.0 5.0 -31.3 346.2 -51.0

2014 66.1 0.0 3.3 38.3 5.0 -29.5 387.0 -51.8

2015 67.3 0.0 4.2 41.0 5.1 -27.2 426.7 -52.1

2016 68.5 0.0 5.1 44.0 5.2 -24.5 464.8 -51.7

2017 69.6 0.0 6.2 47.3 5.3 -21.4 500.8 -50.9

2018 70.8 0.0 7.4 50.9 5.4 -17.9 534.3 -49.5

2019 72.0 0.0 8.7 54.6 5.5 -14.1 564.9 -47.7

2020 73.2 0.0 10.1 58.6 5.6 -10.1 592.3 -45.4

2021 74.3 0.0 11.6 62.7 5.7 -5.7 615.9 -42.6

2022 75.4 0.0 13.3 67.0 5.8 -0.9 635.3 -39.0

2023 76.5 0.0 15.0 71.6 5.8 4.3 649.9 -34.9

2024 77.6 0.0 16.9 76.4 5.9 9.8 659.3 -30.1

2025 78.7 0.0 19.0 81.4 6.0 15.7 662.8 -24.7

2026 79.8 0.0 21.1 86.7 6.1 21.9 660.1 -18.4

2027 80.8 0.0 23.4 92.3 6.2 28.7 650.3 -11.3

2028 81.8 0.0 25.9 98.2 6.2 36.0 632.7 -3.2

2029 82.9 0.0 28.5 104.3 6.3 43.6 606.7 5.8

2030 84.0 0.0 31.2 110.8 6.4 51.6 571.6 15.7

2031 85.1 0.0 34.1 117.4 6.5 60.0 526.9 26.4

2032 86.2 0.0 37.1 124.2 6.6 68.5 472.0 38.1

2033 87.3 0.0 40.2 131.1 6.7 77.3 406.5 50.5

2034 88.5 0.0 43.5 137.7 6.8 85.9 330.0 63.5

2035 89.7 0.0 47.0 144.1 6.9 94.5 242.4 77.1

2036 90.9 0.0 50.6 150.6 6.9 103.3 143.1 91.5

2037 92.2 0.0 54.3 157.1 7.0 112.2 31.7 106.9

2038 93.4 0.0 58.2 163.6 7.1 121.3 -92.5 123.2

2039 94.7 0.0 62.3 170.1 7.2 130.5 -229.9 140.4

2040 95.9 0.0 66.5 176.7 7.3 140.0 -381.2 158.6

2041 97.2 0.0 70.8 183.6 7.4 149.8 -547.1 178.1

2042 98.4 0.0 75.3 190.7 7.5 160.1 -728.7 199.1

2043 99.7 0.0 80.0 198.2 7.6 170.9 -926.8 221.4

2044 101.0 0.0 84.8 206.0 7.7 182.2 -1,142.6 245.3

2045 102.2 0.0 89.6 214.2 7.8 193.8 -1,376.7 270.7

2046 103.5 0.0 94.6 222.7 7.9 205.9 -1,630.5 297.7

2047 104.8 0.0 100.1 231.6 8.0 218.9 -1,905.2 326.8

2048 106.1 0.0 105.5 240.8 8.1 232.1 -2,201.8 357.4

2049 107.4 0.0 110.7 250.4 8.2 245.5 -2,521.0 389.6

2050 108.7 0.0 115.4 260.1 8.3 258.6 -2,863.4 422.9

2051 110.0 0.0 120.2 270.2 8.4 272.0 -3,229.9 458.0

2052 111.3 0.0 124.9 280.5 8.5 285.7 -3,621.4 494.7

2053 112.6 0.0 129.6 291.2 8.6 299.6 -4,039.1 533.3

2054 114.0 0.0 134.3 301.7 8.7 313.3 -4,483.5 573.4

2055 115.3 0.0 138.9 312.5 8.8 327.2 -4,955.5 615.3

2056 116.7 0.0 143.4 323.8 8.9 341.6 -5,456.5 659.3

2057 118.1 0.0 147.9 335.2 9.0 356.0 -5,987.4 705.2

2058 119.5 0.0 152.3 346.9 9.1 370.7 -6,549.4 753.2

2059 120.9 0.0 156.7 358.5 9.2 385.0 -7,143.0 802.9

2060 122.3 0.0 161.0 370.1 9.3 399.4 -7,769.2 854.4

2061 123.8 0.0 165.2 382.1 9.5 414.0 -8,429.4 908.3

2062 125.3 0.0 169.3 394.0 9.6 428.5 -9,124.2 964.1

2063 126.8 0.0 173.4 405.8 9.7 442.7 -9,854.6 1,021.8

2064 128.3 0.0 177.3 418.0 9.8 457.3 -10,621.9 1,082.1

2065 129.8 0.0 181.2 430.2 9.9 471.7 -11,427.1 1,144.5

2066 131.4 0.0 185.0 442.3 10.0 486.0 -12,271.2 1,209.2

2067 132.9 0.0 188.7 455.2 10.1 500.9 -13,156.0 1,276.8

2068 134.5 0.0 192.4 468.1 10.3 515.7 -14,082.7 1,346.9

2069 136.1 0.0 196.0 481.1 10.4 530.6 -15,052.5 1,419.7

2070 137.7 0.0 199.5 494.6 10.5 545.9 -16,067.2 1,495.6

2071 139.3 0.0 202.9 508.9 10.6 561.9 -17,128.8 1,574.9

2072 140.9 0.0 206.3 523.1 10.8 577.7 -18,238.5 1,656.9

2073 142.6 0.0 209.6 537.7 10.9 593.8 -19,398.2 1,742.3

2074 144.2 0.0 212.8 552.8 11.0 610.4 -20,609.8 1,831.3

2075 145.9 0.0 216.1 567.4 11.1 626.5 -21,874.2 1,922.9

2076 147.6 0.0 219.2 582.2 11.3 642.6 -23,193.3 2,017.8

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2001 Trustees Report

 With Ult Real Int Rate of 3.0 TF, Ultimate Real Yield Rate of IA 2.5

Office of the Actuary Annuity Yield 2.5

Social Security Administration

 October 29, 2002
Table 3-100P b Unified Budget Effects

Assumed IA Cntrb 1.965 %, Benefit Offset 100.0 %

% Elect PRA Contribs to GenFnd Offset to Other Tax Change Change Change

100.0% PRA by Fed Transfer to OASI Ben Changes Credit in Annual in Debt in Ann

Govt Based OASDI from PRA in OASDI for UnifBudg Held by UnifBudg

 Year on Earnings for 90 TFR CashFlow Addon CashFlow Public Balance

(NoEffectonUB) lessGFTrans (EOY)

 (Billions of Constant 2001 $)

2002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2004 76.0 0.0 0.0 28.5 5.8 -53.3 55.0 -55.0

2005 78.7 0.0 0.0 31.1 6.0 -53.6 111.9 -58.6

2006 81.4 0.0 0.0 31.7 6.2 -55.8 172.7 -64.4

2007 83.5 0.0 0.0 32.4 6.4 -57.5 237.0 -69.8

2008 85.6 0.0 0.0 32.9 6.5 -59.2 304.9 -75.5

2009 87.9 0.0 0.5 29.8 6.7 -64.2 379.9 -84.8

2010 90.1 0.0 1.2 31.2 6.9 -64.6 457.6 -89.8

2011 92.6 0.0 1.9 32.5 7.1 -65.3 538.4 -95.4

2012 95.0 0.0 2.8 34.1 7.3 -65.4 621.6 -100.4

2013 97.3 0.0 3.8 36.0 7.4 -64.9 707.0 -105.2

2014 99.2 0.0 5.0 38.4 7.6 -63.4 793.5 -109.1

2015 100.9 0.0 6.3 41.0 7.7 -61.3 880.5 -112.4

2016 102.7 0.0 7.7 44.1 7.8 -58.8 967.6 -115.2

2017 104.4 0.0 9.3 47.4 8.0 -55.7 1,054.0 -117.4

2018 106.2 0.0 11.1 51.0 8.1 -52.3 1,139.6 -119.2

2019 108.0 0.0 13.0 54.8 8.2 -48.4 1,223.7 -120.5

2020 109.8 0.0 15.1 58.7 8.4 -44.3 1,306.1 -121.5

2021 111.5 0.0 17.4 62.8 8.5 -39.7 1,386.3 -121.9

2022 113.1 0.0 19.9 67.2 8.6 -34.6 1,463.6 -121.6

2023 114.7 0.0 22.6 71.8 8.8 -29.1 1,537.6 -120.7

2024 116.4 0.0 25.4 76.7 8.9 -23.2 1,607.7 -119.2

2025 118.0 0.0 28.5 81.7 9.0 -16.9 1,673.3 -117.0

2026 119.7 0.0 31.7 87.0 9.1 -10.1 1,733.9 -114.1

2027 121.2 0.0 35.2 92.7 9.3 -2.7 1,788.7 -110.2

2028 122.8 0.0 38.8 98.6 9.4 5.3 1,836.9 -105.3

2029 124.3 0.0 42.7 104.9 9.5 13.7 1,877.8 -99.6

2030 125.9 0.0 46.8 111.4 9.6 22.6 1,910.8 -93.0

2031 127.6 0.0 51.1 118.1 9.7 31.9 1,935.2 -85.5

2032 129.3 0.0 55.6 125.0 9.9 41.4 1,950.5 -77.1

2033 131.0 0.0 60.4 131.9 10.0 51.3 1,956.2 -68.0

2034 132.8 0.0 65.3 138.6 10.1 61.0 1,951.9 -58.2

2035 134.6 0.0 70.5 145.2 10.3 70.8 1,937.5 -47.9

2036 136.4 0.0 75.9 151.8 10.4 80.8 1,912.3 -36.7

2037 138.3 0.0 81.5 158.4 10.6 91.1 1,875.7 -24.5

2038 140.1 0.0 87.3 165.1 10.7 101.6 1,827.2 -11.4

2039 142.0 8.5 93.4 171.7 10.8 112.3 1,766.1 2.7

2040 143.9 25.9 99.7 178.5 11.0 123.3 1,691.9 17.8

2041 145.8 17.5 106.2 185.5 11.1 134.9 1,603.5 34.3

2042 147.7 8.9 113.0 192.9 11.3 146.9 1,500.1 52.2

2043 149.6 0.0 120.0 200.5 11.4 159.5 1,380.5 71.6

2044 151.5 0.0 127.2 208.6 11.6 172.8 1,243.7 92.7

2045 153.4 0.0 134.5 216.9 11.7 186.3 1,088.8 115.2

2046 155.3 0.0 141.9 225.7 11.9 200.5 914.6 139.4

2047 157.2 0.0 150.2 234.9 12.0 215.9 719.4 166.0

2048 159.1 0.0 158.2 244.3 12.1 231.3 502.5 194.0

2049 161.1 0.0 166.0 254.2 12.3 246.8 263.0 223.4

2050 163.0 0.0 173.2 264.2 12.4 261.9 0.8 253.8

2051 165.0 0.0 180.3 274.5 12.6 277.2 -285.2 285.9

2052 166.9 0.0 187.4 285.1 12.7 292.8 -595.8 319.7

2053 168.9 0.0 194.4 296.0 12.9 308.6 -931.9 355.2

2054 171.0 0.0 201.4 306.8 13.0 324.2 -1,294.4 392.2

2055 173.0 0.0 208.3 317.8 13.2 340.0 -1,683.9 430.9

2056 175.0 0.0 215.1 329.4 13.4 356.1 -2,101.7 471.6

2057 177.1 0.0 221.9 341.1 13.5 372.3 -2,548.8 514.2

2058 179.2 0.0 228.5 353.1 13.7 388.7 -3,026.2 558.8

2059 181.4 0.0 235.0 364.9 13.8 404.7 -3,534.5 605.0

2060 183.5 0.0 241.4 376.8 14.0 420.7 -4,074.5 652.9

2061 185.7 0.0 247.8 389.1 14.2 437.0 -4,647.4 703.1

2062 187.9 0.0 254.0 401.3 14.3 453.0 -5,254.1 755.1

2063 190.2 0.0 260.0 413.3 14.5 468.7 -5,895.2 808.9

2064 192.4 0.0 266.0 425.8 14.7 484.7 -6,572.0 865.1

2065 194.7 0.0 271.8 438.2 14.9 500.5 -7,285.4 923.3

2066 197.0 0.0 277.5 450.7 15.0 516.1 -8,036.3 983.7

2067 199.4 0.0 283.1 463.7 15.2 532.3 -8,826.4 1,046.9

2068 201.7 0.0 288.6 476.9 15.4 548.3 -9,656.8 1,112.4

2069 204.1 0.0 293.9 490.1 15.6 564.4 -10,528.7 1,180.4

2070 206.5 0.0 299.2 503.9 15.8 580.8 -11,443.7 1,251.4

2071 208.9 0.0 304.3 518.4 15.9 597.9 -12,403.7 1,325.6

2072 211.4 0.0 309.4 532.8 16.1 614.7 -13,409.9 1,402.4

2073 213.8 0.0 314.4 547.6 16.3 631.8 -14,463.9 1,482.4

2074 216.3 0.0 319.3 562.9 16.5 649.3 -15,567.6 1,565.8

2075 218.8 0.0 324.1 577.8 16.7 666.3 -16,721.9 1,651.6

2076 221.4 0.0 328.9 592.7 16.9 683.3 -17,928.4 1,740.7

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2001 Trustees Report

 With Ult Real Int Rate of 3.0 TF, Ultimate Real Yield Rate of IA 2.5

Office of the Actuary Annuity Yield 2.5

Social Security Administration

 October 29, 2002
Table 1-basic c Cash Flow From the General Fund of the Treasury to the OASDI Trust Funds--- Constant 2001 Dollars 1/

i.e., Without Estimate for this Plan Estimate for Modified Present Law Estimate for Present Law

 PRAs with Borrowing to Pay Scheduled Benefits with Borrowing to Pay Scheduled Benefits with Only Payable Benefits

GR for PRA Full Plan Net Total to Borrowing NetAnn Total to Borrowing NetAnnual Total to

plus Addl Cash Flow EndOfYear Needed Cash Flow EOYwith Needed Cash Flow EOYwith

for Balance from the GF withInterest In Year 2/ from GF Interest In Year 2/ from GF Interest

Year (billions of Constant 2001$) (billions of Constant 2001$) (billions of Constant 2001$)

2001 0 -93 -95 0 -93 -95 0 -93 -95

2002 0 -99 -199 0 -99 -199 0 -99 -199

2003 0 -100 -307 0 -100 -307 0 -100 -307

2004 0 -197 -516 0 -101 -418 0 -101 -418

2005 0 -198 -732 0 -99 -532 0 -99 -532

2006 0 -199 -955 0 -97 -646 0 -97 -646

2007 0 -196 -1,182 0 -93 -759 0 -93 -759

2008 0 -193 -1,412 0 -88 -870 0 -88 -870

2009 0 -184 -1,640 0 -81 -977 0 -81 -977

2010 0 -178 -1,869 0 -72 -1,078 0 -72 -1,078

2011 0 -172 -2,097 0 -63 -1,173 0 -63 -1,173

2012 0 -162 -2,324 0 -50 -1,259 0 -50 -1,259

2013 0 -151 -2,546 0 -36 -1,332 0 -36 -1,332

2014 0 -139 -2,762 0 -20 -1,392 0 -20 -1,392

2015 0 -125 -2,972 0 -3 -1,437 0 -3 -1,437

2016 0 -111 -3,174 0 15 -1,464 0 15 -1,464

2017 0 -96 -3,366 0 35 -1,473 0 35 -1,473

2018 0 -80 -3,548 0 55 -1,461 0 55 -1,461

2019 0 -64 -3,720 0 76 -1,427 0 76 -1,427

2020 0 -48 -3,880 0 97 -1,371 0 97 -1,371

2021 0 -33 -4,030 0 117 -1,294 0 117 -1,294

2022 0 -19 -4,171 0 137 -1,194 0 137 -1,194

2023 0 -6 -4,301 0 156 -1,072 0 156 -1,072

2024 0 7 -4,423 0 174 -927 0 174 -927

2025 0 19 -4,537 0 192 -760 0 192 -760

2026 0 30 -4,642 0 210 -570 0 210 -570

2027 0 40 -4,741 0 226 -357 0 226 -357

2028 0 49 -4,834 0 242 -123 0 242 -123

2029 0 55 -4,922 0 256 133 0 256 133

2030 0 61 -5,009 0 269 410 0 269 410

2031 0 65 -5,093 0 281 707 0 281 707

2032 0 68 -5,177 0 292 1,024 0 292 1,024

2033 0 70 -5,261 0 302 1,361 0 302 1,361

2034 0 70 -5,348 0 309 1,716 0 309 1,716

2035 0 68 -5,439 0 315 2,087 0 315 2,087

2036 0 66 -5,536 0 320 2,475 0 320 2,475

2037 0 62 -5,639 0 325 2,879 0 325 2,879

2038 0 58 -5,749 87 328 3,298 0 241 3,209

2039 0 53 -5,868 331 331 3,732 0 0 3,305

2040 0 47 -5,996 333 333 4,182 0 0 3,405

2041 0 42 -6,133 336 336 4,648 0 0 3,507

2042 0 37 -6,280 339 339 5,131 0 0 3,612

2043 0 32 -6,435 342 342 5,633 0 0 3,720

2044 0 27 -6,601 346 346 6,153 0 0 3,832

2045 0 22 -6,777 351 351 6,693 0 0 3,947

2046 0 17 -6,962 355 355 7,255 0 0 4,065

2047 0 13 -7,158 361 361 7,839 0 0 4,187

2048 0 9 -7,364 367 367 8,446 0 0 4,313

2049 0 5 -7,580 373 373 9,078 0 0 4,442

2050 0 1 -7,807 380 380 9,736 0 0 4,575

2051 0 -2 -8,043 388 388 10,422 0 0 4,713

2052 0 -4 -8,289 397 397 11,138 0 0 4,854

2053 0 -6 -8,544 407 407 11,886 0 0 5,000

2054 0 -8 -8,808 417 417 12,666 0 0 5,150

2055 0 -9 -9,081 428 428 13,480 0 0 5,304

2056 0 -10 -9,364 439 439 14,330 0 0 5,463

2057 0 -11 -9,656 450 450 15,217 0 0 5,627

2058 0 -13 -9,958 462 462 16,142 0 0 5,796

2059 0 -14 -10,271 473 473 17,107 0 0 5,970

2060 0 -15 -10,594 485 485 18,113 0 0 6,149

2061 0 -16 -10,929 497 497 19,160 0 0 6,334

2062 0 -18 -11,274 509 509 20,251 0 0 6,524

2063 0 -19 -11,632 520 520 21,387 0 0 6,719

2064 0 -20 -12,001 532 532 22,569 0 0 6,921

2065 0 -22 -12,383 544 544 23,798 0 0 7,128

2066 0 -23 -12,778 557 557 25,077 0 0 7,342

2067 0 -25 -13,186 569 569 26,407 0 0 7,563

2068 0 -27 -13,609 581 581 27,789 0 0 7,789

2069 0 -29 -14,046 594 594 29,225 0 0 8,023

2070 0 -31 -14,499 606 606 30,717 0 0 8,264

2071 0 -34 -14,968 619 619 32,267 0 0 8,512

2072 0 -36 -15,454 632 632 33,877 0 0 8,767

2073 0 -39 -15,957 646 646 35,549 0 0 9,030

2074 0 -42 -16,479 659 659 37,284 0 0 9,301

2075 0 -45 -17,018 673 673 39,086 0 0 9,580

2076 0 -47 -17,577 687 687 40,955 0 0 9,867

1/ Including redemption of TF assets as of 1-1-2001. Office of the Actuary

2/ Trust Funds are assumed to borrow from the General Fund of the Treasury. Social Security Administration

 October 29, 2002
Table 2-67P c Cash Flow From the General Fund of the Treasury to the OASDI Trust Funds--- Constant 2001 Dollars 1/

Assumed Estimate for this Plan Estimate for Modified Present Law Estimate for Present Law

% Elect PRA with Borrowing to Pay Scheduled Benefits with Borrowing to Pay Scheduled Benefits with Only Payable Benefits

66.7% GR for PRA Full Plan Net Total to Borrowing NetAnn Total to Borrowing NetAnnual Total to

plus Addl Cash Flow EndOfYear Needed Cash Flow EOYwith Needed Cash Flow EOYwith

for Balance from the GF withInterest In Year 2/ from GF Interest In Year 2/ from GF Interest

Year (billions of Constant 2001$) (billions of Constant 2001$) (billions of Constant 2001$)

2001 0 -93 -95 0 -93 -95 0 -93 -95

2002 0 -99 -199 0 -99 -199 0 -99 -199

2003 0 -100 -307 0 -100 -307 0 -100 -307

2004 0 -146 -465 0 -101 -418 0 -101 -418

2005 0 -146 -626 0 -99 -532 0 -99 -532

2006 0 -144 -791 0 -97 -646 0 -97 -646

2007 0 -141 -957 0 -93 -759 0 -93 -759

2008 0 -136 -1,122 0 -88 -870 0 -88 -870

2009 0 -126 -1,283 0 -81 -977 0 -81 -977

2010 0 -119 -1,441 0 -72 -1,078 0 -72 -1,078

2011 0 -111 -1,596 0 -63 -1,173 0 -63 -1,173

2012 0 -101 -1,745 0 -50 -1,259 0 -50 -1,259

2013 0 -89 -1,886 0 -36 -1,332 0 -36 -1,332

2014 0 -76 -2,020 0 -20 -1,392 0 -20 -1,392

2015 0 -62 -2,143 0 -3 -1,437 0 -3 -1,437

2016 0 -48 -2,256 0 15 -1,464 0 15 -1,464

2017 0 -32 -2,357 0 35 -1,473 0 35 -1,473

2018 0 -17 -2,444 0 55 -1,461 0 55 -1,461

2019 0 -1 -2,519 0 76 -1,427 0 76 -1,427

2020 0 15 -2,579 0 97 -1,371 0 97 -1,371

2021 0 29 -2,627 0 117 -1,294 0 117 -1,294

2022 0 43 -2,662 0 137 -1,194 0 137 -1,194

2023 0 55 -2,686 0 156 -1,072 0 156 -1,072

2024 0 67 -2,698 0 174 -927 0 174 -927

2025 0 78 -2,700 0 192 -760 0 192 -760

2026 0 88 -2,692 0 210 -570 0 210 -570

2027 0 97 -2,674 0 226 -357 0 226 -357

2028 0 104 -2,649 0 242 -123 0 242 -123

2029 83 109 -2,618 0 256 133 0 256 133

2030 84 112 -2,583 0 269 410 0 269 410

2031 85 115 -2,544 0 281 707 0 281 707

2032 86 116 -2,503 0 292 1,024 0 292 1,024

2033 87 115 -2,461 0 302 1,361 0 302 1,361

2034 89 113 -2,420 0 309 1,716 0 309 1,716

2035 90 109 -2,382 0 315 2,087 0 315 2,087

2036 91 104 -2,349 0 320 2,475 0 320 2,475

2037 92 97 -2,320 0 325 2,879 0 325 2,879

2038 93 90 -2,298 87 328 3,298 0 241 3,209

2039 95 82 -2,284 331 331 3,732 0 0 3,305

2040 96 73 -2,278 333 333 4,182 0 0 3,405

2041 97 65 -2,281 336 336 4,648 0 0 3,507

2042 98 56 -2,293 339 339 5,131 0 0 3,612

2043 100 47 -2,314 342 342 5,633 0 0 3,720

2044 101 38 -2,344 346 346 6,153 0 0 3,832

2045 102 29 -2,385 351 351 6,693 0 0 3,947

2046 103 20 -2,436 355 355 7,255 0 0 4,065

2047 105 11 -2,498 361 361 7,839 0 0 4,187

2048 106 2 -2,570 367 367 8,446 0 0 4,313

2049 107 -6 -2,654 373 373 9,078 0 0 4,442

2050 109 -14 -2,748 380 380 9,736 0 0 4,575

2051 110 -21 -2,851 388 388 10,422 0 0 4,713

2052 111 -27 -2,964 397 397 11,138 0 0 4,854

2053 113 -33 -3,087 407 407 11,886 0 0 5,000

2054 114 -38 -3,218 417 417 12,666 0 0 5,150

2055 115 -43 -3,358 428 428 13,480 0 0 5,304

2056 117 -48 -3,508 439 439 14,330 0 0 5,463

2057 118 -53 -3,666 450 450 15,217 0 0 5,627

2058 119 -58 -3,835 462 462 16,142 0 0 5,796

2059 121 -62 -4,013 473 473 17,107 0 0 5,970

2060 122 -67 -4,202 485 485 18,113 0 0 6,149

2061 124 -72 -4,401 497 497 19,160 0 0 6,334

2062 125 -76 -4,610 509 509 20,251 0 0 6,524

2063 127 -80 -4,830 520 520 21,387 0 0 6,719

2064 128 -85 -5,061 532 532 22,569 0 0 6,921

2065 130 -89 -5,303 544 544 23,798 0 0 7,128

2066 131 -93 -5,557 557 557 25,077 0 0 7,342

2067 133 -98 -5,822 569 569 26,407 0 0 7,563

2068 73 -102 -6,101 581 581 27,789 0 0 7,789

2069 0 -106 -6,392 594 594 29,225 0 0 8,023

2070 0 -111 -6,696 606 606 30,717 0 0 8,264

2071 0 -116 -7,015 619 619 32,267 0 0 8,512

2072 0 -121 -7,349 632 632 33,877 0 0 8,767

2073 0 -126 -7,697 646 646 35,549 0 0 9,030

2074 0 -131 -8,061 659 659 37,284 0 0 9,301

2075 0 -136 -8,440 673 673 39,086 0 0 9,580

2076 0 -140 -8,835 687 687 40,955 0 0 9,867

1/ Including redemption of TF assets as of 1-1-2001. Office of the Actuary

2/ Trust Funds are assumed to borrow from the General Fund of the Treasury. Social Security Administration

 October 29, 2002
Table 3-100P c Cash Flow From the General Fund of the Treasury to the OASDI Trust Funds--- Constant 2001 Dollars 1/

Assumed Estimate for this Plan Estimate for Modified Present Law Estimate for Present Law

% Elect PRA with Borrowing to Pay Scheduled Benefits with Borrowing to Pay Scheduled Benefits with Only Payable Benefits

100.0% GR for PRA Full Plan Net Total to Borrowing NetAnn Total to Borrowing NetAnnual Total to

plus Addl Cash Flow EndOfYear Needed Cash Flow EOYwith Needed Cash Flow EOYwith

for Balance from the GF withInterest In Year 2/ from GF Interest In Year 2/ from GF Interest

Year (billions of Constant 2001$) (billions of Constant 2001$) (billions of Constant 2001$)

2001 0 -93 -95 0 -93 -95 0 -93 -95

2002 0 -99 -199 0 -99 -199 0 -99 -199

2003 0 -100 -307 0 -100 -307 0 -100 -307

2004 0 -121 -439 0 -101 -418 0 -101 -418

2005 0 -119 -573 0 -99 -532 0 -99 -532

2006 0 -117 -709 0 -97 -646 0 -97 -646

2007 0 -113 -844 0 -93 -759 0 -93 -759

2008 0 -107 -977 0 -88 -870 0 -88 -870

2009 0 -97 -1,104 0 -81 -977 0 -81 -977

2010 0 -90 -1,227 0 -72 -1,078 0 -72 -1,078

2011 0 -81 -1,345 0 -63 -1,173 0 -63 -1,173

2012 0 -70 -1,456 0 -50 -1,259 0 -50 -1,259

2013 0 -57 -1,557 0 -36 -1,332 0 -36 -1,332

2014 0 -44 -1,648 0 -20 -1,392 0 -20 -1,392

2015 0 -31 -1,729 0 -3 -1,437 0 -3 -1,437

2016 0 -16 -1,797 0 15 -1,464 0 15 -1,464

2017 0 -1 -1,852 0 35 -1,473 0 35 -1,473

2018 0 15 -1,892 0 55 -1,461 0 55 -1,461

2019 0 31 -1,918 0 76 -1,427 0 76 -1,427

2020 0 46 -1,929 0 97 -1,371 0 97 -1,371

2021 0 60 -1,925 0 117 -1,294 0 117 -1,294

2022 0 74 -1,908 0 137 -1,194 0 137 -1,194

2023 0 86 -1,878 0 156 -1,072 0 156 -1,072

2024 116 97 -1,836 0 174 -927 0 174 -927

2025 118 108 -1,782 0 192 -760 0 192 -760

2026 120 117 -1,716 0 210 -570 0 210 -570

2027 121 125 -1,641 0 226 -357 0 226 -357

2028 123 131 -1,557 0 242 -123 0 242 -123

2029 124 135 -1,466 0 256 133 0 256 133

2030 126 138 -1,370 0 269 410 0 269 410

2031 128 139 -1,270 0 281 707 0 281 707

2032 129 140 -1,166 0 292 1,024 0 292 1,024

2033 131 138 -1,061 0 302 1,361 0 302 1,361

2034 133 134 -956 0 309 1,716 0 309 1,716

2035 135 129 -854 0 315 2,087 0 315 2,087

2036 136 123 -755 0 320 2,475 0 320 2,475

2037 138 115 -661 0 325 2,879 0 325 2,879

2038 140 106 -573 87 328 3,298 0 241 3,209

2039 150 97 -492 331 331 3,732 0 0 3,305

2040 170 86 -419 333 333 4,182 0 0 3,405

2041 163 76 -355 336 336 4,648 0 0 3,507

2042 156 65 -299 339 339 5,131 0 0 3,612

2043 150 55 -253 342 342 5,633 0 0 3,720

2044 151 44 -216 346 346 6,153 0 0 3,832

2045 153 33 -189 351 351 6,693 0 0 3,947

2046 155 22 -173 355 355 7,255 0 0 4,065

2047 157 10 -168 361 361 7,839 0 0 4,187

2048 159 -1 -174 367 367 8,446 0 0 4,313

2049 161 -12 -191 373 373 9,078 0 0 4,442

2050 163 -21 -218 380 380 9,736 0 0 4,575

2051 165 -30 -256 388 388 10,422 0 0 4,713

2052 167 -38 -302 397 397 11,138 0 0 4,854

2053 169 -46 -358 407 407 11,886 0 0 5,000

2054 171 -53 -423 417 417 12,666 0 0 5,150

2055 173 -60 -497 428 428 13,480 0 0 5,304

2056 175 -67 -580 439 439 14,330 0 0 5,463

2057 138 -74 -672 450 450 15,217 0 0 5,627

2058 11 -80 -774 462 462 16,142 0 0 5,796

2059 11 -87 -885 473 473 17,107 0 0 5,970

2060 0 -93 -1,006 485 485 18,113 0 0 6,149

2061 0 -99 -1,137 497 497 19,160 0 0 6,334

2062 0 -105 -1,278 509 509 20,251 0 0 6,524

2063 0 -111 -1,429 520 520 21,387 0 0 6,719

2064 0 -117 -1,591 532 532 22,569 0 0 6,921

2065 0 -123 -1,763 544 544 23,798 0 0 7,128

2066 0 -128 -1,946 557 557 25,077 0 0 7,342

2067 0 -134 -2,141 569 569 26,407 0 0 7,563

2068 0 -140 -2,347 581 581 27,789 0 0 7,789

2069 0 -145 -2,565 594 594 29,225 0 0 8,023

2070 0 -151 -2,795 606 606 30,717 0 0 8,264

2071 0 -158 -3,039 619 619 32,267 0 0 8,512

2072 0 -163 -3,296 632 632 33,877 0 0 8,767

2073 0 -169 -3,567 646 646 35,549 0 0 9,030

2074 0 -176 -3,852 659 659 37,284 0 0 9,301

2075 0 -181 -4,151 673 673 39,086 0 0 9,580

2076 0 -186 -4,465 687 687 40,955 0 0 9,867

1/ Including redemption of TF assets as of 1-1-2001. Office of the Actuary

2/ Trust Funds are assumed to borrow from the General Fund of the Treasury. Social Security Administration

 October 29, 2002
Table 1-basic c Cash Flow From the General Fund of the Treasury to the OASDI Trust Funds--- PV on 1-1-2001 1/

i.e., Without Estimate for this Plan Estimate for Modified Present Law Estimate for Present Law

 PRAs with Borrowing to Pay Scheduled Benefits with Borrowing to Pay Scheduled Benefits with Only Payable Benefits

GR for PRA Full Plan Net Total to Borrowing NetAnn Total to Borrowing NetAnnual Total to

plus Addl Cash Flow EndOfYear Needed Cash Flow EOYwith Needed Cash Flow EOYwith

for Balance from the GF withInterest In Year 2/ from GF Interest In Year 2/ from GF Interest

Year (billions of PV 1-1-2001$) (billions of PV 1-1-2001$) (billions of PV 1-1-2001$)

2001 0 -90 -90 0 -90 -90 0 -90 -90

2002 0 -92 -183 0 -92 -183 0 -92 -183

2003 0 -91 -273 0 -91 -273 0 -91 -273

2004 0 -173 -446 0 -88 -362 0 -88 -362

2005 0 -169 -615 0 -84 -446 0 -84 -446

2006 0 -164 -779 0 -81 -527 0 -81 -527

2007 0 -158 -937 0 -75 -602 0 -75 -602

2008 0 -151 -1,088 0 -69 -670 0 -69 -670

2009 0 -140 -1,228 0 -61 -731 0 -61 -731

2010 0 -132 -1,360 0 -53 -784 0 -53 -784

2011 0 -123 -1,483 0 -45 -829 0 -45 -829

2012 0 -113 -1,596 0 -35 -864 0 -35 -864

2013 0 -102 -1,698 0 -24 -889 0 -24 -889

2014 0 -91 -1,789 0 -13 -902 0 -13 -902

2015 0 -80 -1,869 0 -2 -904 0 -2 -904

2016 0 -69 -1,937 0 10 -894 0 10 -894

2017 0 -58 -1,995 0 21 -873 0 21 -873

2018 0 -47 -2,042 0 32 -841 0 32 -841

2019 0 -36 -2,078 0 43 -797 0 43 -797

2020 0 -26 -2,105 0 54 -744 0 54 -744

2021 0 -18 -2,122 0 63 -681 0 63 -681

2022 0 -10 -2,132 0 71 -610 0 71 -610

2023 0 -3 -2,135 0 78 -532 0 78 -532

2024 0 3 -2,132 0 85 -447 0 85 -447

2025 0 9 -2,123 0 91 -355 0 91 -355

2026 0 14 -2,109 0 97 -259 0 97 -259

2027 0 18 -2,091 0 101 -158 0 101 -158

2028 0 21 -2,070 0 105 -53 0 105 -53

2029 0 23 -2,046 0 108 55 0 108 55

2030 0 25 -2,022 0 110 165 0 110 165

2031 0 26 -1,996 0 112 277 0 112 277

2032 0 26 -1,969 0 113 390 0 113 390

2033 0 26 -1,943 0 113 503 0 113 503

2034 0 25 -1,918 0 113 615 0 113 615

2035 0 24 -1,894 0 111 727 0 111 727

2036 0 23 -1,871 0 110 837 0 110 837

2037 0 21 -1,850 0 108 945 0 108 945

2038 0 19 -1,832 28 106 1,051 0 78 1,022

2039 0 17 -1,815 104 104 1,154 0 0 1,022

2040 0 14 -1,801 101 101 1,256 0 0 1,022

2041 0 12 -1,788 99 99 1,355 0 0 1,022

2042 0 11 -1,778 97 97 1,453 0 0 1,022

2043 0 9 -1,769 95 95 1,548 0 0 1,022

2044 0 7 -1,761 94 94 1,642 0 0 1,022

2045 0 6 -1,756 92 92 1,734 0 0 1,022

2046 0 4 -1,751 91 91 1,825 0 0 1,022

2047 0 3 -1,748 89 89 1,914 0 0 1,022

2048 0 2 -1,746 88 88 2,002 0 0 1,022

2049 0 1 -1,745 87 87 2,090 0 0 1,022

2050 0 0 -1,745 86 86 2,176 0 0 1,022

2051 0 0 -1,745 85 85 2,261 0 0 1,022

2052 0 -1 -1,746 85 85 2,346 0 0 1,022

2053 0 -1 -1,747 84 84 2,431 0 0 1,022

2054 0 -2 -1,749 84 84 2,515 0 0 1,022

2055 0 -2 -1,751 84 84 2,599 0 0 1,022

2056 0 -2 -1,752 83 83 2,682 0 0 1,022

2057 0 -2 -1,754 83 83 2,765 0 0 1,022

2058 0 -2 -1,757 83 83 2,848 0 0 1,022

2059 0 -2 -1,759 82 82 2,930 0 0 1,022

2060 0 -3 -1,762 82 82 3,012 0 0 1,022

2061 0 -3 -1,764 81 81 3,093 0 0 1,022

2062 0 -3 -1,767 81 81 3,174 0 0 1,022

2063 0 -3 -1,770 80 80 3,254 0 0 1,022

2064 0 -3 -1,773 80 80 3,334 0 0 1,022

2065 0 -3 -1,776 79 79 3,414 0 0 1,022

2066 0 -3 -1,779 79 79 3,492 0 0 1,022

2067 0 -3 -1,783 78 78 3,570 0 0 1,022

2068 0 -4 -1,786 77 77 3,648 0 0 1,022

2069 0 -4 -1,790 77 77 3,725 0 0 1,022

2070 0 -4 -1,794 76 76 3,801 0 0 1,022

2071 0 -4 -1,798 75 75 3,876 0 0 1,022

2072 0 -4 -1,802 75 75 3,951 0 0 1,022

2073 0 -4 -1,807 74 74 4,025 0 0 1,022

2074 0 -5 -1,812 74 74 4,099 0 0 1,022

2075 0 -5 -1,816 73 73 4,172 0 0 1,022

2076 0 -5 -1,821 72 72 4,244 0 0 1,022

1/ Including redemption of TF assets as of 1-1-2001. Office of the Actuary

2/ Trust Funds are assumed to borrow from the General Fund of the Treasury. Social Security Administration

 October 29, 2002
Table 2-67P c Cash Flow From the General Fund of the Treasury to the OASDI Trust Funds--- PV on 1-1-2001 1/

Assumed Estimate for this Plan Estimate for Modified Present Law Estimate for Present Law

% Elect PRA with Borrowing to Pay Scheduled Benefits with Borrowing to Pay Scheduled Benefits with Only Payable Benefits

66.7% GR for PRA Full Plan Net Total to Borrowing NetAnn Total to Borrowing NetAnnual Total to

plus Addl Cash Flow EndOfYear Needed Cash Flow EOYwith Needed Cash Flow EOYwith

for Balance from the GF withInterest In Year 2/ from GF Interest In Year 2/ from GF Interest

Year (billions of PV 1-1-2001$) (billions of PV 1-1-2001$) (billions of PV 1-1-2001$)

2001 0 -90 -90 0 -90 -90 0 -90 -90

2002 0 -92 -183 0 -92 -183 0 -92 -183

2003 0 -91 -273 0 -91 -273 0 -91 -273

2004 0 -128 -402 0 -88 -362 0 -88 -362

2005 0 -124 -526 0 -84 -446 0 -84 -446

2006 0 -119 -645 0 -81 -527 0 -81 -527

2007 0 -113 -758 0 -75 -602 0 -75 -602

2008 0 -106 -865 0 -69 -670 0 -69 -670

2009 0 -96 -960 0 -61 -731 0 -61 -731

2010 0 -88 -1,048 0 -53 -784 0 -53 -784

2011 0 -80 -1,128 0 -45 -829 0 -45 -829

2012 0 -70 -1,198 0 -35 -864 0 -35 -864

2013 0 -60 -1,258 0 -24 -889 0 -24 -889

2014 0 -50 -1,308 0 -13 -902 0 -13 -902

2015 0 -40 -1,348 0 -2 -904 0 -2 -904

2016 0 -30 -1,377 0 10 -894 0 10 -894

2017 0 -20 -1,397 0 21 -873 0 21 -873

2018 0 -10 -1,407 0 32 -841 0 32 -841

2019 0 -1 -1,407 0 43 -797 0 43 -797

2020 0 8 -1,399 0 54 -744 0 54 -744

2021 0 16 -1,383 0 63 -681 0 63 -681

2022 0 22 -1,361 0 71 -610 0 71 -610

2023 0 28 -1,333 0 78 -532 0 78 -532

2024 0 33 -1,300 0 85 -447 0 85 -447

2025 0 37 -1,263 0 91 -355 0 91 -355

2026 0 41 -1,223 0 97 -259 0 97 -259

2027 0 43 -1,179 0 101 -158 0 101 -158

2028 0 45 -1,134 0 105 -53 0 105 -53

2029 35 46 -1,088 0 108 55 0 108 55

2030 34 46 -1,043 0 110 165 0 110 165

2031 34 46 -997 0 112 277 0 112 277

2032 33 45 -952 0 113 390 0 113 390

2033 33 43 -909 0 113 503 0 113 503

2034 32 41 -868 0 113 615 0 113 615

2035 32 38 -829 0 111 727 0 111 727

2036 31 36 -794 0 110 837 0 110 837

2037 31 32 -761 0 108 945 0 108 945

2038 30 29 -732 28 106 1,051 0 78 1,022

2039 30 26 -707 104 104 1,154 0 0 1,022

2040 29 22 -684 101 101 1,256 0 0 1,022

2041 29 19 -665 99 99 1,355 0 0 1,022

2042 28 16 -649 97 97 1,453 0 0 1,022

2043 28 13 -636 95 95 1,548 0 0 1,022

2044 27 10 -626 94 94 1,642 0 0 1,022

2045 27 8 -618 92 92 1,734 0 0 1,022

2046 26 5 -613 91 91 1,825 0 0 1,022

2047 26 3 -610 89 89 1,914 0 0 1,022

2048 26 1 -609 88 88 2,002 0 0 1,022

2049 25 -1 -611 87 87 2,090 0 0 1,022

2050 25 -3 -614 86 86 2,176 0 0 1,022

2051 24 -5 -619 85 85 2,261 0 0 1,022

2052 24 -6 -624 85 85 2,346 0 0 1,022

2053 23 -7 -631 84 84 2,431 0 0 1,022

2054 23 -8 -639 84 84 2,515 0 0 1,022

2055 23 -8 -647 84 84 2,599 0 0 1,022

2056 22 -9 -656 83 83 2,682 0 0 1,022

2057 22 -10 -666 83 83 2,765 0 0 1,022

2058 21 -10 -677 83 83 2,848 0 0 1,022

2059 21 -11 -687 82 82 2,930 0 0 1,022

2060 21 -11 -699 82 82 3,012 0 0 1,022

2061 20 -12 -710 81 81 3,093 0 0 1,022

2062 20 -12 -723 81 81 3,174 0 0 1,022

2063 20 -12 -735 80 80 3,254 0 0 1,022

2064 19 -13 -748 80 80 3,334 0 0 1,022

2065 19 -13 -761 79 79 3,414 0 0 1,022

2066 19 -13 -774 79 79 3,492 0 0 1,022

2067 18 -13 -787 78 78 3,570 0 0 1,022

2068 10 -14 -801 77 77 3,648 0 0 1,022

2069 0 -14 -815 77 77 3,725 0 0 1,022

2070 0 -14 -829 76 76 3,801 0 0 1,022

2071 0 -14 -843 75 75 3,876 0 0 1,022

2072 0 -14 -857 75 75 3,951 0 0 1,022

2073 0 -14 -872 74 74 4,025 0 0 1,022

2074 0 -15 -886 74 74 4,099 0 0 1,022

2075 0 -15 -901 73 73 4,172 0 0 1,022

2076 0 -15 -916 72 72 4,244 0 0 1,022

1,019 3,149

1/ Including redemption of TF assets as of 1-1-2001. Office of the Actuary

2/ Trust Funds are assumed to borrow from the General Fund of the Treasury. Social Security Administration

 October 29, 2002
Table 3-100P c Cash Flow From the General Fund of the Treasury to the OASDI Trust Funds--- PV on 1-1-2001 1/

Assumed Estimate for this Plan Estimate for Modified Present Law Estimate for Present Law

% Elect PRA with Borrowing to Pay Scheduled Benefits with Borrowing to Pay Scheduled Benefits with Only Payable Benefits

100.0% GR for PRA Full Plan Net Total to Borrowing NetAnn Total to Borrowing NetAnnual Total to

plus Addl Cash Flow EndOfYear Needed Cash Flow EOYwith Needed Cash Flow EOYwith

for Balance from the GF withInterest In Year 2/ from GF Interest In Year 2/ from GF Interest

Year (billions of PV 1-1-2001$) (billions of PV 1-1-2001$) (billions of PV 1-1-2001$)

2001 0 -90 -90 0 -90 -90 0 -90 -90

2002 0 -92 -183 0 -92 -183 0 -92 -183

2003 0 -91 -273 0 -91 -273 0 -91 -273

2004 0 -106 -380 0 -88 -362 0 -88 -362

2005 0 -102 -481 0 -84 -446 0 -84 -446

2006 0 -97 -578 0 -81 -527 0 -81 -527

2007 0 -91 -669 0 -75 -602 0 -75 -602

2008 0 -84 -753 0 -69 -670 0 -69 -670

2009 0 -74 -827 0 -61 -731 0 -61 -731

2010 0 -66 -893 0 -53 -784 0 -53 -784

2011 0 -58 -951 0 -45 -829 0 -45 -829

2012 0 -49 -1,000 0 -35 -864 0 -35 -864

2013 0 -39 -1,038 0 -24 -889 0 -24 -889

2014 0 -29 -1,068 0 -13 -902 0 -13 -902

2015 0 -19 -1,087 0 -2 -904 0 -2 -904

2016 0 -10 -1,097 0 10 -894 0 10 -894

2017 0 -1 -1,098 0 21 -873 0 21 -873

2018 0 9 -1,089 0 32 -841 0 32 -841

2019 0 17 -1,072 0 43 -797 0 43 -797

2020 0 26 -1,046 0 54 -744 0 54 -744

2021 0 32 -1,014 0 63 -681 0 63 -681

2022 0 38 -976 0 71 -610 0 71 -610

2023 0 43 -932 0 78 -532 0 78 -532

2024 57 48 -885 0 85 -447 0 85 -447

2025 56 51 -834 0 91 -355 0 91 -355

2026 55 54 -780 0 97 -259 0 97 -259

2027 54 56 -724 0 101 -158 0 101 -158

2028 53 57 -667 0 105 -53 0 105 -53

2029 52 57 -610 0 108 55 0 108 55

2030 52 57 -553 0 110 165 0 110 165

2031 51 55 -498 0 112 277 0 112 277

2032 50 54 -444 0 113 390 0 113 390

2033 49 52 -392 0 113 503 0 113 503

2034 48 49 -343 0 113 615 0 113 615

2035 48 46 -297 0 111 727 0 111 727

2036 47 42 -255 0 110 837 0 110 837

2037 46 38 -217 0 108 945 0 108 945

2038 45 34 -183 28 106 1,051 0 78 1,022

2039 47 30 -152 104 104 1,154 0 0 1,022

2040 52 26 -126 101 101 1,256 0 0 1,022

2041 48 22 -103 99 99 1,355 0 0 1,022

2042 45 19 -85 97 97 1,453 0 0 1,022

2043 42 15 -69 95 95 1,548 0 0 1,022

2044 41 12 -58 94 94 1,642 0 0 1,022

2045 40 9 -49 92 92 1,734 0 0 1,022

2046 40 6 -43 91 91 1,825 0 0 1,022

2047 39 3 -41 89 89 1,914 0 0 1,022

2048 38 0 -41 88 88 2,002 0 0 1,022

2049 38 -3 -44 87 87 2,090 0 0 1,022

2050 37 -5 -49 86 86 2,176 0 0 1,022

2051 36 -7 -55 85 85 2,261 0 0 1,022

2052 36 -8 -64 85 85 2,346 0 0 1,022

2053 35 -10 -73 84 84 2,431 0 0 1,022

2054 34 -11 -84 84 84 2,515 0 0 1,022

2055 34 -12 -96 84 84 2,599 0 0 1,022

2056 33 -13 -108 83 83 2,682 0 0 1,022

2057 25 -14 -122 83 83 2,765 0 0 1,022

2058 2 -14 -136 83 83 2,848 0 0 1,022

2059 2 -15 -152 82 82 2,930 0 0 1,022

2060 0 -16 -167 82 82 3,012 0 0 1,022

2061 0 -16 -183 81 81 3,093 0 0 1,022

2062 0 -17 -200 81 81 3,174 0 0 1,022

2063 0 -17 -217 80 80 3,254 0 0 1,022

2064 0 -18 -235 80 80 3,334 0 0 1,022

2065 0 -18 -253 79 79 3,414 0 0 1,022

2066 0 -18 -271 79 79 3,492 0 0 1,022

2067 0 -18 -289 78 78 3,570 0 0 1,022

2068 0 -19 -308 77 77 3,648 0 0 1,022

2069 0 -19 -327 77 77 3,725 0 0 1,022

2070 0 -19 -346 76 76 3,801 0 0 1,022

2071 0 -19 -365 75 75 3,876 0 0 1,022

2072 0 -19 -384 75 75 3,951 0 0 1,022

2073 0 -19 -404 74 74 4,025 0 0 1,022

2074 0 -20 -423 74 74 4,099 0 0 1,022

2075 0 -20 -443 73 73 4,172 0 0 1,022

2076 0 -20 -463 72 72 4,244 0 0 1,022

1/ Including redemption of TF assets as of 1-1-2001. Office of the Actuary

2/ Trust Funds are assumed to borrow from the General Fund of the Treasury. Social Security Administration

 October 29, 2002