Social Security Retirement Benefit Start Age, 

and Earnings after Eligibility

Discussion of Papers by Barbara Smith (SSA) 

and Jordan Stanley (Census) 

APPAM Conference

Steve Goss, Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

November 9, 2018
2

Can Informational Interventions Be Effective 

Policy Tools: The Social Security Statement

By Barbara Smith (SSA) and 

Kenneth Couch (UCONN)

 Great insight –Statement must have an effect

– But how much??

 Careful analysis with FRA, and time/cohort 

considerations

– Highly complex, Many influences 

 Some delay in benefit start with statements

– More with NRA
Some analysis we did in 2016: Male start retirement 

benefits later after 1995, more after 2000

0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

8 0

9 0

100

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Figure 1: Male Retired Worker Beneficiaries In Current 

Payment Status as Percent of Insured Population 

(excluding those receiving only some other OASDI benefit)

62.5 63.5 64.5 65.5 66.5 67.5 68.5 69.5 70.5

Recession

Eliminate Earnings 

Test Over NRA

3
Some analysis we did in 2016: Females delaying 

since about 1987, acceleration in 2000. 

4

0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

8 0

9 0

100

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Figure 2: Female Retired Worker Beneficiaries In Current 

Payment Status as Percent of Insured Population 

(excluding those receiving only some other OASDI benefit)

62.5 63.5 64.5 65.5 66.5 67.5 68.5 69.5 70.5

Recession

Eliminate Earnings 
5

Can Informational Interventions Be Effective 

Policy Tools: The Social Security Statement

Some possible refinements

– Note statements only for permanently insured 

who are not currently receiving a benefit

– Any way to determine if they read the mailings?

– Look after 2010 when mailed statements stopped 

now limited mailings but delay continues!!

 Note earlier benefit start up through 1995

– Boomers flooded workforce—early out pensions

– These are now all but gone—DC plans different

Note also “time to recover” change 200X
6

Effects of Social Security Eligibility Timing 

on Retirement Decisions, by Jordan Stanley

Looks further at effects on labor supply

– Note employment better than LFPR especially 

lately!

 Employment and benefit receipt not exclusive

– Earnings test allows earnings up at about $16,000 

with no reduction, only $1 for $2 reduction above

– Test eliminated at FRA in 2000 

 Increased employment at higher ages

– Improved health for elders

– Longer lifetime to save for—without private DBs
7

Historical Rates of employment by age group: 

Females fairly steady until recession 

0.100

0.200

0.300

0.400

0.500

0.600

0.700

Figure 3. Female Employment/Population

55-59 60-64 65-69
8

Historical Rates of employment by age group: 

Males 60+ some rise after 1995 until recession 

0.200

0.300

0.400

0.500

0.600

0.700

0.800

Figure 4. Male Employment/Population 

55-59 60-64 65-69
9

Effects of Social Security Eligibility Timing 

on Retirement Decisions, by Jordan Stanley

Challenge to disentangle effects of Social 

Security eligibility rules and benefit levels on 

employment from the many other factors

 Suggest further work looking at:

– Earnings test

– Increasing longevity

– DC vs DB pensions

– Asset bubbles---drops in market values

– Changing age distribution of adults

– Changings job requirements
10

A few observations from our work at SSA 

Office of the Actuary

Benefit reduction factors and delayed 

retirement factors we developed in 1979 are 

now generous! Encourage later benefit start

 We estimated for 1983 Amendments that----

– 1 year increase in NRA (FRA) would delay start 

of benefits by about 3 months on average

– Increase employment an equivalent amount

Increased elder employment and later benefit 

start is complicated--

– Real causes versus correlates: more research!