SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE, MD 21235-0001

SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

February 4, 2016

The Honorable Bernie Sanders

United States Senate

Washington, D.C. 20515

Dear Senator Sanders:

I am writing in response to your request for updated estimates of the financial effects on Social 

Security of S. 731, The Social Security Expansion Act, which you introduced on March 12, 2015. 

The estimates provided here reflect the intermediate assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report, 

whereas estimates provided in the letter dated March 26, 2015 reflected the assumptions in the 

2014 Trustees Report. This Bill (hereafter referred to as the proposal) includes five provisions 

with direct effects on the Social Security Trust Funds. Note that for the purpose of this updated 

estimate, we are assuming that sections 4, 5, 6, and 7 of the Bill would become effective starting 

in 2017 rather than in 2016. In addition, the estimates provided here do not reflect the estimated 

effects of the Bipartisan Budget Act (BBA) of 2015, which was enacted after completion of the 

2015 Trustees Report. Including the effects of the BBA would provide a small further 

improvement in the projected actuarial status of the Social Security Trust Funds. We have 

enjoyed working closely with Jeff Cruz and Caryn Compton of your staff in developing this 

proposal to meet your goals.

The enclosed tables provide estimates of the effects of the five provisions on the cost, income, 

and combined trust fund reserves for the Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI)

program, as well as estimated effects on retired worker benefit levels for selected hypothetical 

workers. In addition, tables 1b and 1b.n provide estimates of the Federal budget implications of 

the five provisions. Assuming enactment of the proposal, we estimate the funding for the 

combined OASI and DI Trust Funds would be sufficient to extend the projected year of reserve 

depletion from 2034 to 2074, under the intermediate assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report.

Estimates for the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds are consistent with an intent to reallocate 

the total tax rate as needed to equalize the years of reserve depletion and generally the actuarial 

status of the two separate trust funds. The estimates and analysis provided here reflect the 

combined effort of many in the Office of the Chief Actuary, but most particularly Karen Glenn, 

Christopher Chaplain, Daniel Nickerson, Jason Schultz, Kyle Burkhalter, Anna Kirjusina, Katie 

Sutton, and Tiffany Bosley.

The proposal includes five basic provisions with direct effects on the OASDI program. The 

following list identifies each provision with the corresponding section number in the Bill:
Page 2 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders

Section 2. Increase the first PIA bend point above the current law level for beneficiaries 

newly eligible after 2020. Phase in an ultimate 15-percent increase in the first bend point by 

raising it 1 percent above the current level for beneficiaries newly eligible in 2021, 2 percent 

for beneficiaries newly eligible in 2022, and so on, until it reaches 15 percent for 

beneficiaries newly eligible in 2035 and later.

Section 3. Use the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E) to calculate the cost-ofliving adjustment (COLA), beginning with the December 2016 COLA. We assume this 

change would increase the COLA by an average of 0.2 percentage point per year.

Section 4. Increase the special minimum PIA for workers who die or become newly eligible 

for retirement or disability benefits in 2017 or later. For beneficiaries newly eligible in 2017, 

the minimum initial PIA for workers with 30 or more years of coverage (YOCs) is 125 

percent of the annual poverty guideline for a single individual, as published by the 

Department of Health and Human Services for 2015, divided by 12. For beneficiaries newly 

eligible after 2017, the minimum initial PIA increases by the growth in the SSA average 

wage index (AWI).

Sections 5 and 6. Apply the combined OASDI payroll tax rate on earnings above $250,000, 

effective for 2017 and later. Tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds 

$250,000. Do not credit the additional taxed earnings for benefit purposes.

Section 7. Apply a separate 6.2-percent tax on investment income, as defined in the 

Affordable Care Act (ACA), with unindexed thresholds as in the ACA, effective for 2017 and 

later. The ACA thresholds are $200,000 for a single filer and $250,000 for a married couple 

filing jointly. Under this provision, there is no limit on the amount taxed.

The balance of this letter provides a summary of the effects of the five provisions on the actuarial 

status of the OASDI program, our understanding of the specifications and intent of each 

provision, and descriptions of our detailed financial estimates for trust fund operations, benefit 

levels, and implications for the Federal budget.

Summary of Effects of the Proposal on OASDI Actuarial Status

Figure 1 below illustrates the estimated change in the combined Old-Age and Survivors 

Insurance (OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund reserves, expressed as a percent of 

annual program cost, assuming enactment of the five provisions of this proposal. Assuming 

enactment of the proposal, we estimate the year of depletion of the combined OASI and DI Trust 

Fund reserves would be extended from 2034 under current law to 2074, under the intermediate 

assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report.
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Note: Trust Fund Ratio for a given year is the ratio of reserves in the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds at the 

beginning of the year to the cost of the program for the year.

Under current law, 79 percent of scheduled benefits are projected to be payable in 2034 after 

depletion of the combined trust fund reserves, with the percentage payable declining to 74 

percent for 2074 and to 73 percent for 2089. Under the proposal, 88 percent of scheduled 

benefits are projected to be payable in 2074 after depletion of the combined trust fund reserves, 

with this percentage declining to 87 percent for 2089. Enactment of the five provisions of this 

proposal would reduce the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit of 2.68 percent of taxable payroll 

under current law to 0.49 percent of payroll for the long-range period.

Figure 2 illustrates annual projected levels of cost, expenditures, and non-interest income as a 

percent of the present-law taxable payroll. The projected level of cost reflects the full cost of 

scheduled benefits under both present law and the proposal. Under the proposal, projected 

expenditures equal the full cost of scheduled benefits through 2073, the year prior to trust fund 

reserve depletion.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 Trust Fund Ratio

Figure 1. Present Law and Proposal OASDI Trust Fund Reserves as 

Percent of Annual Cost: 2015 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Present Law Trust Fund Ratio

Proposal
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Beginning in 2017, OASDI program cost is higher under the proposal than under current law. 

This difference in program cost increases quickly at first, then increases gradually over time to 

about 1.4 percent of current-law payroll by 2089. Non-interest income under the proposal is also 

higher than under current law, with the difference in non-interest income growing from 2.1 

percent of present-law payroll for 2017 to 3.6 percent of present-law payroll by 2089. The 

proposal improves the annual balance (non-interest income minus program cost) by 2.6 percent 

of payroll for 2034, with the improvement declining to 2.2 percent of payroll for 2089. Under the 

proposal, the annual balance is negative in 2015 and 2016, positive in 2017 through 2026, and 

then negative through the end of the long-range period. The annual deficit generally increases to 

2.5 percent of payroll for 2089. Under current law, the projected annual deficit for 2089 is 4.7 

percent of payroll.

It is also useful to consider the projected cost, expenditures, and income for the OASDI program 

expressed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Figure 3 below illustrates these 

levels under both current law and the proposal.

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 Percent of Present-Law Taxable Payroll

Figure 2. Proposal and Present Law Cost, Expenditures, and Non-Interest 

Income as Percent of Taxable Payroll: 2015 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Present Law Cost

Present Law Non-Interest Income

Present Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Non-Interest Income

Proposal Expenditures
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Specification for Provisions of the Proposal

Section 2. Increase the first PIA bend point above the current law level for beneficiaries 

newly eligible after 2020.

Under current law, any portion of the AIME that is below the first PIA bend point is multiplied 

by a factor of 0.90 in computing the PIA. The first bend point is changed (indexed) for each year 

by the increase or decrease in the AWI from the third prior year to the second prior year. This 

provision would increase the level of the first PIA bend point, from the level that would apply 

under current law, by 1 percent for beneficiaries newly eligible in 2021, by 2 percent for 

beneficiaries newly eligible in 2022, and so on, until it reaches 15 percent for beneficiaries newly 

eligible in 2035 and all subsequent years.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.37 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2089) by 0.71 percent of payroll.

Section 3. Use the CPI-E to calculate the COLA, starting with the December 2016 COLA.

Under current law, the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) applied to Social Security 

benefits is calculated using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical 

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 Percent of GDP

Figure 3. Proposal and Present Law Cost, Expenditures, and Non-Interest 

Income as Percent of GDP: 2015 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Present Law Cost

Present Law Non-Interest Income

Present Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Non-Interest Income

Proposal Expenditures
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Workers (CPI-W). We estimate that using the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E), 

instead of the CPI-W, beginning with the December 2016 COLA would increase the COLA by 

0.2 percentage point per year on average.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.38 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2089) by 0.53 percent of payroll.

Section 4. Increase the special minimum PIA for workers who die or become newly eligible 

for retirement or disability benefits in 2017 and later.

Under this provision, the minimum initial PIA for worker beneficiaries newly eligible in 2017 

with 30 or more years of coverage (YOCs) would be 125 percent of the annual poverty guideline 

for a single individual, as published by the Department of Health and Human Services for 2015, 

divided by 12. For those with less than 30 YOCs, the minimum PIA per YOC in excess of 10 is 

the minimum PIA for workers with 30 or more YOCs, divided by 20. Any year in which a 

worker earns 4 quarters of coverage is determined to be a YOC. For beneficiaries newly eligible 

after 2017, the initial PIA per YOC in excess of 10 is indexed by growth in the SSA average 

wage index (AWI) to determine the minimum applicable for the year of initial eligibility. After 

the year of initial eligibility, the minimum PIA per YOC is increased by the COLA.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.17 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2089) by 0.26 percent of payroll.

Sections 5 and 6. Apply the combined OASDI payroll tax rate on earnings above $250,000, 

effective for 2017 and later.

This provision applies the OASDI payroll tax rate to earnings above $250,000 in 2017 and later. 

The $250,000 level is a fixed amount after 2017 and not indexed to the average wage increase. 

All earnings would be taxed once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $250,000, which is 

projected to occur in 2034. Any earnings above the higher of $250,000 or the current-law taxable 

maximum in a given year would not be credited for benefit computation purposes.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 2.15 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2089) by 2.46 percent of payroll.

Section 7. Apply a separate 6.2-percent tax on investment income, as defined in the 

Affordable Care Act (ACA), with unindexed thresholds as in the ACA, effective for 2017.

The ACA thresholds for Modified Adjusted Gross Income, or MAGI (AGI with adjustments for 

specific circumstances), are $200,000 for a single filer and $250,000 for a married couple filing 

jointly. This provision applies a 6.2 percent Social Security tax to the lesser of MAGI above 

these thresholds and total investment income, in the same way as the 3.8 percent tax on 
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investment income that went into effect in 2013 under the ACA. Under this provision, there is no 

limit on the amount taxed.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.93 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2089) by 1.16 percent of payroll.

Detailed Financial Results for the Provisions of the Proposal

Summary Results by Provision

Table A provides estimates of the effects on the OASDI long-range actuarial balance for each of 

the five provisions of the proposal separately and on a combined basis. The table also includes 

estimates of the effect of each provision on the annual balance (the difference between income 

rate and the cost rate, expressed as a percent of present-law taxable payroll) for the 75th

projection year, 2089. Interaction among individual provisions is reflected only in the total 

estimates for the combined provisions.

Benefit Illustrations

Tables B1 and B2 provide illustrative examples of the projected change in benefit levels under 

the three provisions that affect benefit levels for beneficiaries retiring at age 65 in future years at 

five selected earnings levels, with selected numbers of years of work. The “Maximum-AIME 

Steady Earner” is assumed to have earnings at ages 22 through 64 that equal the present-law 

taxable maximum level (equivalent to $118,500 for 2015). As a result, the provision to increase 

the taxable maximum does not affect benefit levels illustrated in these tables. Table B3 provides 

additional important information on characteristics of the illustrative retiring workers.

Table B1 compares the initial benefit levels, assuming retirement at age 65 under the provisions 

of the proposal, to both scheduled and payable present-law benefit levels. All benefit amounts 

under the proposal are higher than those scheduled in current law, especially for the very low and 

low hypothetical earners with at least 30 years of earnings (due largely to the minimum benefit 

provision). The final two columns of this table show the level of scheduled benefits under the 

proposal as a percentage of present-law scheduled and present-law payable benefits, 

respectively.

Table B2 compares the change in scheduled benefit levels at ages 65, 75, 85, and 95 under the 

proposal to scheduled benefits under present law, assuming retirement at age 65. Table B2 shows 

that projected scheduled benefits under the provisions of this proposal increase in relation to 

present-law scheduled benefits between ages 65 and 95, because of the change in computing the 

COLA.

The hypothetical workers represented in these tables reflect average career-earnings patterns of 

workers who started receiving retirement benefits under the Social Security program in recent 

years. The tables subdivide workers with very low and low career-average earnings levels by 

their numbers of years of non-zero earnings.
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Table B3 provides information helpful in interpreting the benefit illustrations in tables B1 and 

B2. Percentages in Table B3 are based on tabulations from a 10-percent sample of newly-entitled 

retired workers in 2007. Table B3 displays the percentages of these newly-entitled retired 

workers in 2007 that are closest to each of the illustrative examples and are:

1) “Dually Entitled”, meaning they received a higher spouse or widow(er) benefit based on 

the career earnings of their husband or wife,

2) “WEP” (Windfall Elimination Provision), meaning that they received a reduced benefit

due to having a pension based on earnings that were not covered under the OASDI 

program (primarily certain government workers), and they had less than 30 years of 

substantial earnings that were taxable under the OASDI program,

3) “Foreign Born”, meaning that they entered the Social Security coverage area after birth 

(and generally after entering working ages), and

4) “All Others”, meaning they had none of the three characteristics listed above.

The extent to which retired-worker beneficiaries represented by each of the illustrative examples 

has any of the characteristics listed above (dually entitled, WEP, foreign born) is important 

because such individuals are less dependent on the OASDI benefit that relates to their own 

career-average earnings level.

Detailed Tables Containing Annual and Summary Projections

Enclosed with this letter are tables 1, 1a, 1b, 1b.n, 1c, and 1d, which provide annual and 

summary projections for the proposal.

Trust Fund Operations

Table 1 provides projections of the financial operations of the OASDI program under the 

proposal and shows that the year of reserve depletion for the combined OASDI Trust Funds 

would be extended by 40 years, from 2034 under current law to 2074. The table shows the 

annual cost and income rates, annual balances, and trust fund ratios (reserves as percent of 

annual program cost) for OASDI, as well as the change from present law in these cost rates, 

income rates, and annual balances. Included at the bottom of this table are summarized rates for 

the 75-year (long-range) period.

The actuarial balance for the OASDI program over the 75-year projection period is improved by 

2.19 percent of taxable payroll, from an actuarial deficit of 2.68 percent of payroll under current 

law to an actuarial deficit of 0.49 percent of taxable payroll.

Program Transfers and Trust Fund Reserves

Column 4 of Table 1a provides a projection of the level of reserves for the theoretical combined 

OASI and DI Trust Funds, assuming enactment of the five Social Security provisions of this 

proposal. These trust fund reserve amounts are expressed in present value dollars discounted to 

January 1, 2015. The table indicates that the provisions include no new specified transfers of
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general revenue to the trust funds. For purpose of comparison, the OASDI Trust Fund reserves, 

expressed in present value dollars, are also shown for the current-law Social Security program 

both without and with the added proposal general fund transfers (zero in this case) in columns 6 

and 7.

Note that negative values in columns 4, 6, and 7 represent the “unfunded obligation” for the 

program through the year. The unfunded obligation is the present value of the shortfall of 

revenue needed to pay full scheduled benefits on a timely basis from the date of trust fund 

reserve depletion through the end of the indicated year. Gross Domestic Product (GDP),

expressed in present value dollars, is shown in column 5 for comparison with other values in the 

table.

Effect of the Social Security Provisions on the Federal Budget

Table 1b shows the projected effect, in present value discounted dollars, on the Federal budget 

(unified-budget and on-budget) cash flows and balances, assuming enactment of the five Social 

Security provisions of this proposal. Table 1b.n provides the estimated nominal dollar effect of 

enactment of the proposal on annual budget balances for years 2015 through 2025. All values in 

these tables represent the amount of change from the level projected under current law and 

reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits, not payable under the law after 

depletion of trust fund reserves, would still be paid using revenue provided from the General 

Fund of the Treasury obtained by additional borrowing from the public.

Column 1 of Table 1b shows the added proposal general fund transfers (zero in this case).

Column 2 shows the net changes in OASDI cash flow from all provisions of the proposal.

We expect the net effect of the proposal on unified budget cash flow (column 3) to be positive in 

years 2017 and later, reflecting the newly applied tax on investment income in section 7 and the 

payroll tax newly applied to earnings above $250,000 in sections 5 and 6.

Column 4 of Table 1b indicates that the effect of implementing the five provisions is a reduction 

of the Federal debt held by the public, reaching about $9.3 trillion in present value at the end of 

the 75-year projection period. Column 5 provides the projected effect of the proposal on the 

annual unified budget balances, including both the cash flow effect in column 3 and the 

additional interest on the accumulated debt in column 4. Columns 6 and 7 indicate that the 

provisions of this proposal would have no expected direct effects on the on-budget cash flow, or 

on the total Federal debt, in the future.

It is important to note that we base these estimates on the intermediate assumptions of the 2015 

Trustees Report and thus these estimates are not consistent with estimates made by the Office of 

Management and Budget or the Congressional Budget Office based on their assumptions. In 

particular, all present values are discounted using trust fund yield assumptions under the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report.
Page 10 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders

Annual Trust Fund Operations as a Percent of GDP

Table 1c provides annual cost, annual expenditures (amount that would be payable), and annual 

tax income for the OASDI program expressed as a percentage of GDP for both present law and 

assuming enactment of the five Social Security provisions of the proposal. Showing the annual 

trust fund cash flows as a percent of GDP provides an additional perspective on these trust fund 

operations in relation to the total value of goods and services produced in the United States. The 

relationship between income and cost is similar when expressed as a percent of GDP to that 

when expressed as a percent of taxable payroll (Table 1).

Effects on Trust Fund Reserves and Unfunded Obligations

Table 1d provides estimates of the changes in trust fund reserves. Values in this table are 

expressed in present value dollars discounted to January 1, 2015.

For the 75-year (long-range) period as a whole, the present-law unfunded obligation of $10.7

trillion is reduced to $1.4 trillion in present value. This change of $9.3 trillion results from:

 A $13.0 trillion increase in revenue (column 2), primarily from additional tax revenue, 

minus

 A $3.7 trillion increase in cost (column 3), primarily from the special minimum PIA 

provision, calculating the COLA using the CPI-E rather than the CPI-W, and 

increasing current and future benefits by increasing the first PIA bend point by 15 

percent ultimately.

We hope these estimates are helpful. Please let me know if we may provide further assistance.

Sincerely,

Stephen C. Goss

Chief Actuary

Enclosures
Table A--Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of S.731,

“The Social Security Expansion Act”, Introduced by Senator Sanders

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

in 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

Section 2. Increase the first PIA bend point above the current 

law level for beneficiaries newly eligible after 2020. Phase in 

an ultimate 15-percent increase in the first bend point by 

raising it 1 percent above the current level for beneficiaries 

newly eligible in 2021, 2 percent for beneficiaries newly 

eligible in 2022, and so on, until it reaches 15 percent for 

beneficiaries newly eligible in 2035 and later................................................................ -0.37 ............................... -0.71

Section 3. Use the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPIE) to calculate the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), 

beginning with the December 2016 COLA. We assume this 

change would increase the COLA by an average of 0.2 

percentage point per year................................................................................................ -0.38 ............................... -0.53

Section 4. Increase the special minimum PIA for workers who 

die or become newly eligible for retirement or disability 

benefits in 2017 or later. Reconfigure the special minimum 

benefit as follows: (a) A year of coverage (YOC) is defined as 

a year in which 4 quarters of coverage are earned. (b) For 

those newly eligible in 2017 with 30 or more YOCs, set the 

minimum PIA equal to 125 percent of the 2015 Health and 

Human Services (HHS) monthly poverty level. For those with 

fewer than 30 YOCs, the PIA per year YOC in excess of 10 

YOCs is 125 percent of the HHS monthly poverty level for 

2015, divided by 20. (c) For beneficiaries newly eligible after 

2017, index the initial PIA per YOC by growth in the SSA 

average wage index ................................................................................................ -017....................................... -0.26

Sections 5 and 6. Apply the 12.4 percent payroll tax rate on 

earnings above $250,000 starting in 2017. Tax all earnings 

once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $250,000. Do 

not provide benefit credit for additional earnings taxed................................................................ 2.15 ................ 2.46

Section 7. Apply a 6.2 percent tax on investment income as 

defined in the Affordable Care Act (ACA), with unindexed 

thresholds as in the ACA ($200,000 single filer, $250,000 for 

married filing joint), starting in 2017. Proceeds go to the 

OASDI Trust Funds................................................................................................ 09................................ 3 ....... 1.16

Total for all provisions, including interaction ................................................................ 2.19 .........2.18
Table A--Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of S.731,

“The Social Security Expansion Act”, Introduced by Senator Sanders

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

in 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

1Under current law, the estimated long-range OASDI actuarial balance is -2.68 percent of taxable payroll.

2Under current law, the estimated 75th year annual balance is -4.65 percent of taxable payroll.

Notes: All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2015 OASDI Trustees Report. 

 Estimates of individual provisions appear on a stand-alone basis relative to current law, unless otherwise stated.

Social Security Administration

Office of the Chief Actuary

February 4, 2016
Year 

Attain Increased Benefit Minimum

Age 65 (Wage-Indexed (CPI-Indexed COLA4

Formula5 Benefit6 Total Scheduled Payable

2015 Dollars) 2015 Dollars)

 

2015 709 709 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 644 809 0.6 4.3 46.9 54.2 154 154

2050 643 1,022 0.6 8.4 41.4 54.2 154 196

2080 646 1,431 0.6 8.4 41.4 54.2 154 -

 

2015 709 709 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 644 809 0.6 4.3 0.0 4.9 105 105

2050 643 1,022 0.6 8.4 0.0 9.1 109 138

2080 646 1,431 0.6 8.4 0.0 9.0 109 -

 

2015 709 709 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 644 809 0.6 4.3 0.0 4.9 105 105

2050 643 1,022 0.6 8.4 0.0 9.1 109 138

2080 646 1,431 0.6 8.4 0.0 9.0 109 -

2015 927 927 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 842 1,058 0.6 3.3 13.4 17.8 118 118

2050 842 1,337 0.6 7.0 9.4 17.8 118 149

2080 846 1,873 0.6 7.0 9.4 17.8 118 -

2015 927 927 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 842 1,058 0.6 3.3 13.4 17.8 118 118

2050 842 1,337 0.6 7.0 9.4 17.8 118 149

2080 846 1,873 0.6 7.0 9.4 17.8 118 -

2015 927 927 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 842 1,058 0.6 3.3 0.0 3.9 104 104

2050 842 1,337 0.6 7.0 0.0 7.7 108 137

2080 846 1,873 0.6 7.0 0.0 7.7 108 -

2015 1,528 1,528 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 1,388 1,744 0.6 2.0 0.0 2.6 103 103

2050 1,388 2,204 0.6 4.3 0.0 4.9 105 133

2080 1,394 3,086 0.6 4.3 0.0 4.9 105 -

2015 1,528 1,528 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 1,388 1,744 0.6 2.0 0.0 2.6 103 103

2050 1,388 2,204 0.6 4.3 0.0 4.9 105 133

2080 1,394 3,086 0.6 4.3 0.0 4.9 105 -

2015 2,025 2,025 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 1,839 2,310 0.6 1.5 0.0 2.1 102 102

2050 1,838 2,920 0.6 3.2 0.0 3.8 104 132

2080 1,846 4,088 0.6 3.2 0.0 3.8 104 -

2015 2,452 2,452 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 2,249 2,826 0.6 1.2 0.0 1.8 102 102

2050 2,248 3,570 0.6 2.6 0.0 3.2 103 131

2080 2,251 4,985 0.6 2.6 0.0 3.2 103 -

1 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2015.

2

Projected percent of new retired worker awards in 2050 closest to AIME levels and years of work.

3 After the trust fund reserves deplete under present law continuing taxes are expected to be enough to pay about three fourths of scheduled benefits.

4

5

6

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report.

Monthly Benefits3 Percent of Present Law:

Table B1. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Beginning Benefit Receipt at age 65 

S. 731, "The Social Security Expansion Act" , Introduced by Senator Sanders

Scheduled Benefit Level Percent Change at age 65

Present Law Scheduled Proposal Scheduled Benefit

(Percent change) (Percents)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,955 for 20151) 30-Year Scaled Earner (8.8% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,955 for 20151) 20-Year Scaled Earner (4.8% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,955 for 20151) 14-Year Scaled Earner (4.5% of Retirees2)

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration February 4, 2016

 Low-AIME ($21,519 for 20151) 44-Year Scaled Earner (16.0% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($21,519 for 20151) 30-Year Scaled Earner (4.6% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($21,519 for 20151) 20-Year Scaled Earner (2.2% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($47,820 for 20151) 44-Year Scaled Earner (29.4% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($47,820 for 20151) 30-Year Scaled Earner (2.4% of Retirees2)

 High-AIME ($76,512 for 20151) 44-Year Scaled Earner (21.4% of Retirees2)

 Maximum-AIME ($118,500 for 20151) 43-Year Steady Earner (5.9% of Retirees2)

Starting Dec 2016, compute the COLA using a chained CPI-E, producing 0.2% higher annual COLAs on average.

Increase the current-law first PIA bend point by 1% for 2021, 2% for 2022, ..., and 15% for 2035 and later.

For beneficiaries newly eligible in 2017, establish a minimum PIA level such that a worker with 30/10 years of coverage would receive an initial PIA of at least 125%/0% of 

the monthly poverty level for 2016. For beneficiaries newly eligible after 2017, the initial minimum PIA level would be adjusted for average wage growth. The Minimum 

Benefit Percent change is calculated after all other provisions, so that the Proposed Benefit Amount is at least the Minimum Benefit, where applicable.
Year 

Attain

Age 65 Age 65 Age 75 Age 85 Age 95

2015 100.0 101.8 103.8 105.8

2030 154.2 157.2 160.3 163.4

2050 154.2 157.2 160.3 163.5

2080 154.2 157.2 160.3 163.4

2015 100.0 101.8 103.8 105.8

2030 104.9 107.0 109.1 111.2

2050 109.1 111.2 113.4 115.6

2080 109.0 111.2 113.4 115.6

2015 100.0 101.8 103.8 105.8

2030 104.9 107.0 109.1 111.2

2050 109.1 111.2 113.4 115.6

2080 109.0 111.2 113.4 115.6

2015 100.0 101.8 103.8 105.8

2030 117.8 120.1 122.5 124.9

2050 117.8 120.2 122.5 124.9

2080 117.8 120.2 122.5 124.9

2015 100.0 101.8 103.8 105.8

2030 117.8 120.1 122.5 124.9

2050 117.8 120.2 122.5 124.9

2080 117.8 120.2 122.5 124.9

2015 100.0 101.8 103.8 105.8

2030 103.9 105.9 108.0 110.1

2050 107.7 109.8 111.9 114.1

2080 107.7 109.8 111.9 114.1

2015 100.0 101.8 103.8 105.8

2030 102.6 104.6 106.7 108.8

2050 104.9 106.9 109.0 111.2

2080 104.9 106.9 109.0 111.2

2015 100.0 101.8 103.8 105.8

2030 102.6 104.6 106.7 108.8

2050 104.9 106.9 109.0 111.2

2080 104.9 106.9 109.0 111.2

2015 100.0 101.8 103.8 105.8

2030 102.1 104.1 106.2 108.2

2050 103.8 105.9 108.0 110.1

2080 103.8 105.9 108.0 110.1

2015 100.0 101.8 103.8 105.8

2030 101.8 103.8 105.9 107.9

2050 103.2 105.3 107.3 109.4

2080 103.2 105.3 107.3 109.5

1 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2015.

2

Projected percent of new retired worker awards in 2050 closest to AIME levels and years of work.

Note: Starting Dec 2016, compute the COLA using a chained CPI-E, producing 0.2% higher annual COLAs on average.

Other Changes: 

-

-

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report.

 Medium-AIME ($47,820 for 20151) 30-Year Scaled Earner (2.4% of Retirees2)

Table B2. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Beginning Benefit Receipt at age 65 

S. 731, "The Social Security Expansion Act" , Introduced by Senator Sanders

Proposal Scheduled Benefit as Percent of Present Law Scheduled

(Percent)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,955 for 20151) 30-Year Scaled Earner (8.8% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,955 for 20151) 20-Year Scaled Earner (4.8% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,955 for 20151) 14-Year Scaled Earner (4.5% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($21,519 for 20151) 44-Year Scaled Earner (16.0% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($21,519 for 20151) 30-Year Scaled Earner (4.6% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($21,519 for 20151) 20-Year Scaled Earner (2.2% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($47,820 for 20151) 44-Year Scaled Earner (29.4% of Retirees2)

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration February 4, 2016

 High-AIME ($76,512 for 20151) 44-Year Scaled Earner (21.4% of Retirees2)

 Maximum-AIME ($118,500 for 20151) 43-Year Steady Earner (5.9% of Retirees2)

Increase the current-law first PIA bend point by 1% for 2021, 2% for 2022, ..., and 15% for 2035 and later.

For beneficiaries newly eligible in 2017, establish a minimum PIA level such that a worker with 30/10 years of coverage would receive an initial PIA of at least 125%/0% of the 

monthly poverty level for 2016. For beneficiaries newly eligible after 2017, the initial minimum PIA level would be adjusted for average wage growth.
Category Dually Entitled2 WEP3

Foreign Born All Others4

Very-Low-AIME ($11,955 for 20151):

30-Year Scaled Earner (9.3% of Retirees) 47 6 11 40

20-Year Scaled Earner (5.8% of Retirees) 38 16 21 31

14-Year Scaled Earner (5.3% of Retirees) 22 21 45 20

Low-AIME ($21,519 for 20151):

44-Year Scaled Earner (13.1% of Retirees) 15 2 6 78

30-Year Scaled Earner (5.9% of Retirees) 16 9 18 59

20-Year Scaled Earner (3.1% of Retirees) 10 23 35 37

Medium-AIME ($47,820 for 20151):

44-Year Scaled Earner (23.0% of Retirees) 1 1 5 93

30-Year Scaled Earner (4.4% of Retirees) 1 8 26 67

High-AIME ($76,512 for 20151):

44-Year Scaled Earner (20.5% of Retirees) 0 0 6 93

Maximum-AIME ($118,500 for 20151):

Steady Earner (9.4% of Retirees) 0 0 7 93

1 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2015.

2

3 Covered by pension from government employment and are subject to the windfall elimination provision (WEP).

4 Neither foreign born, subject to WEP, or dually entitled.

August 5, 2015

Note 3: The sum of the percentages for each category (sum across rows) could be greater than 100 percent because some beneficiaries can be classified in more than one of the 

following groups: dually entitled, WEP, and foreign born. 

Under current law, entitled to an additional benefit based on someone else's account. The dually entitled percent is a minimum value. Some beneficiaries that are not 

currently dually entitled could become dually entitled in the future.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration

Table B3. Important Characteristics of Hypothetical Workers in 2007

Percent of Beneficiaries Within Each Category That Are:

Note 1:Table B3 displays the percentages of these newly-entitled retired workers in 2007 that are closest to each of the illustrative examples.

Note 2: Percents based on tabulations of a 10-percent sample of newly entitled retired-worker beneficiaries in 2007 (169,725 records). We can be 95 percent confident that each 

of the values shown above is within 1.4 percentage points of the value we would find using 100 percent of the retirees in 2007.
Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

S.731, "The Social Security Expansion Act", introduced by Senator Sanders

Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2015 14.13 12.82 -1.31 308 0.00 0.00 0.00

2016 13.88 12.88 -1.00 298 0.00 0.00 0.00

2017 13.92 15.02 1.10 280 0.03 2.11 2.08

2018 14.03 15.16 1.13 277 0.06 2.22 2.16

2019 14.18 15.22 1.04 275 0.09 2.27 2.18

2020 14.35 15.28 0.93 273 0.13 2.32 2.19

2021 14.50 15.35 0.84 272 0.16 2.36 2.21

2022 14.71 15.42 0.71 270 0.19 2.41 2.22

2023 14.95 15.48 0.53 267 0.23 2.45 2.22

2024 15.22 15.56 0.34 264 0.27 2.50 2.23

2025 15.47 15.64 0.17 261 0.30 2.56 2.26

2026 15.70 15.72 0.02 258 0.34 2.63 2.29

2027 15.94 15.81 -0.13 255 0.38 2.69 2.32

2028 16.17 15.89 -0.27 252 0.42 2.77 2.35

2029 16.39 15.98 -0.40 250 0.46 2.84 2.39

2030 16.59 16.07 -0.52 248 0.50 2.92 2.42

2031 16.78 16.17 -0.61 245 0.54 3.00 2.47

2032 16.95 16.26 -0.69 243 0.58 3.09 2.51

2033 17.09 16.36 -0.74 240 0.62 3.17 2.56

2034 17.21 16.40 -0.80 237 0.66 3.21 2.56

2035 17.32 16.42 -0.89 234 0.70 3.23 2.53

2036 17.42 16.44 -0.98 231 0.74 3.24 2.50

2037 17.50 16.46 -1.04 228 0.78 3.25 2.47

2038 17.54 16.47 -1.07 224 0.81 3.26 2.45

2039 17.58 16.49 -1.09 220 0.85 3.27 2.42

2040 17.60 16.50 -1.10 217 0.88 3.28 2.40

2041 17.60 16.51 -1.09 213 0.91 3.29 2.38

2042 17.61 16.52 -1.09 209 0.94 3.30 2.36

2043 17.61 16.53 -1.08 206 0.97 3.31 2.34

2044 17.62 16.54 -1.08 202 1.00 3.32 2.32

2045 17.62 16.55 -1.07 198 1.03 3.33 2.31

2046 17.62 16.56 -1.07 195 1.05 3.34 2.29

2047 17.63 16.57 -1.06 191 1.07 3.35 2.28

2048 17.64 16.58 -1.06 188 1.10 3.36 2.27

2049 17.66 16.59 -1.07 184 1.12 3.37 2.25

2050 17.68 16.60 -1.08 180 1.14 3.38 2.24

2051 17.71 16.61 -1.10 176 1.15 3.39 2.23

2052 17.75 16.62 -1.13 172 1.17 3.39 2.22

2053 17.79 16.63 -1.16 168 1.19 3.40 2.21

2054 17.85 16.64 -1.21 163 1.21 3.41 2.20

2055 17.91 16.65 -1.26 158 1.22 3.42 2.20

2056 17.97 16.66 -1.31 153 1.24 3.42 2.19

2057 18.04 16.67 -1.37 147 1.25 3.43 2.18

2058 18.11 16.68 -1.42 141 1.26 3.44 2.18

2059 18.17 16.69 -1.48 135 1.27 3.45 2.17

2060 18.24 16.71 -1.53 128 1.28 3.45 2.17

2061 18.30 16.72 -1.58 122 1.29 3.46 2.17

2062 18.36 16.73 -1.63 114 1.30 3.47 2.16

2063 18.42 16.74 -1.69 107 1.31 3.47 2.16

2064 18.48 16.75 -1.74 99 1.32 3.48 2.16

2065 18.55 16.76 -1.79 91 1.33 3.49 2.16

2066 18.61 16.77 -1.84 82 1.34 3.49 2.15

2067 18.68 16.78 -1.90 74 1.34 3.50 2.15

2068 18.74 16.79 -1.96 65 1.35 3.50 2.15

2069 18.80 16.80 -2.01 55 1.36 3.51 2.15

2070 18.87 16.80 -2.06 45 1.36 3.52 2.15

2071 18.92 16.81 -2.11 35 1.37 3.52 2.15

2072 18.97 16.82 -2.15 25 1.38 3.53 2.15

2073 19.01 16.83 -2.18 14 1.38 3.53 2.15

2074 19.05 16.84 -2.21 3 1.38 3.54 2.15

2075 19.07 16.84 -2.23 ---- 1.39 3.54 2.16

2076 19.09 16.85 -2.24 ---- 1.39 3.55 2.16

2077 19.10 16.86 -2.24 ---- 1.39 3.55 2.16

2078 19.10 16.86 -2.24 ---- 1.39 3.56 2.16

2079 19.10 16.87 -2.24 ---- 1.40 3.56 2.17

2080 19.11 16.87 -2.23 ---- 1.40 3.57 2.17

2081 19.11 16.88 -2.24 ---- 1.40 3.57 2.17

2082 19.13 16.88 -2.25 ---- 1.40 3.58 2.18

2083 19.15 16.89 -2.26 ---- 1.40 3.58 2.18

2084 19.18 16.89 -2.29 ---- 1.41 3.59 2.18

2085 19.22 16.90 -2.32 ---- 1.41 3.59 2.18

2086 19.26 16.91 -2.35 ---- 1.41 3.60 2.18

2087 19.30 16.91 -2.39 ---- 1.42 3.60 2.18

2088 19.35 16.92 -2.43 ---- 1.42 3.60 2.18

2089 19.39 16.93 -2.47 ---- 1.42 3.61 2.18

2090 19.44 16.93 -2.51 ---- 1.43 3.61 2.19

Summarized Rates: OASDI Summarized Rates: OASDI

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

2015 - 2089 17.44% 16.95% -0.49% 2074 0.89% 3.08% 2.19%

Office of the Chief Actuary

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration

1Under present law the year of combined Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. February 4, 2016

Year of reserve 

depletion1

Proposal Change from Present Law

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll
Table 1a - General Fund Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Reserves, and Theoretical OASDI Reserves

S.731, "The Social Security Expansion Act", introduced by Senator Sanders

Percentage

of Payroll

Annual

Amounts

Accumulated as of 

End of Year

Gross Domestic 

Product

Without General

Fund Transfers

With Plan General

Fund Transfers

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,707.3 17,864.2 2,707.3 2,707.3

2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,643.2 18,295.3 2,643.2 2,643.2

2017 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,717.4 18,734.7 2,578.0 2,578.0

2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,795.6 19,132.0 2,507.4 2,507.4

2019 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,869.7 19,486.1 2,427.9 2,427.9

2020 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,937.3 19,804.8 2,337.6 2,337.6

2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,999.9 20,085.5 2,238.5 2,238.5

2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,053.6 20,314.7 2,127.1 2,127.1

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,094.4 20,493.6 2,000.5 2,000.5

2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,120.9 20,642.8 1,857.5 1,857.5

2025 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,135.2 20,744.0 1,699.7 1,699.7

2026 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,137.9 20,784.6 1,527.9 1,527.9

2027 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,129.4 20,747.2 1,343.1 1,343.1

2028 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,110.3 20,625.1 1,146.5 1,146.5

2029 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,081.7 20,422.9 939.8 939.8

2030 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,045.2 20,183.3 724.6 724.6

2031 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,002.3 19,943.7 502.3 502.3

2032 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,954.5 19,705.2 274.5 274.5

2033 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,903.9 19,474.0 42.8 42.8

2034 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,849.3 19,248.0 -190.6 -190.6

2035 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,789.1 19,027.7 -425.3 -425.3

2036 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,724.2 18,807.4 -660.8 -660.8

2037 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,655.9 18,596.1 -895.6 -895.6

2038 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,586.1 18,395.2 -1,128.4 -1,128.4

2039 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,515.8 18,195.7 -1,358.1 -1,358.1

2040 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,445.9 18,000.2 -1,584.1 -1,584.1

2041 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,377.0 17,808.7 -1,806.0 -1,806.0

2042 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,309.1 17,617.1 -2,023.8 -2,023.8

2043 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,242.4 17,429.4 -2,237.7 -2,237.7

2044 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,176.9 17,243.1 -2,447.6 -2,447.6

2045 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,112.4 17,050.6 -2,653.8 -2,653.8

2046 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,049.1 16,863.4 -2,856.3 -2,856.3

2047 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,986.7 16,675.8 -3,055.5 -3,055.5

2048 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,925.0 16,486.5 -3,251.6 -3,251.6

2049 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,863.9 16,298.3 -3,444.8 -3,444.8

2050 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,802.8 16,109.8 -3,635.7 -3,635.7

2051 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,741.2 15,921.2 -3,824.8 -3,824.8

2052 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,678.9 15,734.1 -4,012.6 -4,012.6

2053 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,615.3 15,547.0 -4,199.5 -4,199.5

2054 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,550.1 15,361.2 -4,386.0 -4,386.0

2055 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,483.0 15,176.7 -4,572.4 -4,572.4

2056 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,413.9 14,993.4 -4,758.9 -4,758.9

2057 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,342.8 14,811.3 -4,945.7 -4,945.7

2058 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,269.6 14,630.8 -5,132.6 -5,132.6

2059 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,194.7 14,452.8 -5,319.5 -5,319.5

2060 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,118.0 14,276.9 -5,506.5 -5,506.5

2061 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,039.8 14,103.0 -5,693.5 -5,693.5

2062 0.0 0.0 0.0 960.0 13,931.9 -5,880.4 -5,880.4

2063 0.0 0.0 0.0 878.8 13,763.1 -6,067.3 -6,067.3

2064 0.0 0.0 0.0 796.2 13,597.0 -6,254.0 -6,254.0

2065 0.0 0.0 0.0 712.1 13,433.0 -6,440.7 -6,440.7

2066 0.0 0.0 0.0 626.7 13,271.3 -6,627.4 -6,627.4

2067 0.0 0.0 0.0 539.8 13,112.0 -6,814.1 -6,814.1

2068 0.0 0.0 0.0 451.6 12,954.5 -7,000.8 -7,000.8

2069 0.0 0.0 0.0 362.1 12,799.7 -7,187.5 -7,187.5

2070 0.0 0.0 0.0 271.4 12,647.5 -7,374.0 -7,374.0

2071 0.0 0.0 0.0 179.8 12,497.5 -7,560.2 -7,560.2

2072 0.0 0.0 0.0 87.7 12,349.6 -7,745.7 -7,745.7

2073 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4.7 12,203.5 -7,930.3 -7,930.3

2074 0.0 0.0 0.0 -96.9 12,059.4 -8,113.7 -8,113.7

2075 0.0 0.0 0.0 -188.8 11,916.9 -8,295.5 -8,295.5

2076 0.0 0.0 0.0 -279.7 11,775.9 -8,475.4 -8,475.4

2077 0.0 0.0 0.0 -369.7 11,636.3 -8,653.2 -8,653.2

2078 0.0 0.0 0.0 -458.4 11,498.1 -8,828.7 -8,828.7

2079 0.0 0.0 0.0 -545.8 11,361.5 -9,002.0 -9,002.0

2080 0.0 0.0 0.0 -632.1 11,225.9 -9,173.1 -9,173.1

2081 0.0 0.0 0.0 -717.3 11,091.2 -9,342.2 -9,342.2

2082 0.0 0.0 0.0 -801.8 10,957.5 -9,509.5 -9,509.5

2083 0.0 0.0 0.0 -885.8 10,824.6 -9,675.4 -9,675.4

2084 0.0 0.0 0.0 -969.6 10,692.5 -9,840.1 -9,840.1

2085 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,053.4 10,561.5 -10,003.7 -10,003.7

2086 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,137.3 10,431.7 -10,166.5 -10,166.5

2087 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,221.5 10,303.0 -10,328.5 -10,328.5

2088 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,305.9 10,175.5 -10,489.7 -10,489.7

2089 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,390.6 10,049.3 -10,650.3 -10,650.3

2090 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,475.6 9,924.4 -10,810.1 -10,810.1

Total 2015-2089 0.0

Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report.

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%.

Office of the Chief Actuary

1

 Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption Social Security Administration

 that the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury. February 4, 2016

Calendar

Year

Proposal General Fund Transfers Present Value in Billions as of 1-1-2015

Proposal

Total OASDI

Trust Fund

Reserves

 at End of Year

Theoretical Social Security1

with Borrowing Authority

Present Value in Billions as of 1-1-2015 Net OASDI Trust Fund Reserves at End of Year
Table 1b - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1

 (Present Value Dollars)

S.731, "The Social Security Expansion Act", introduced by Senator Sanders

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End Of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2017 0.0 139.4 139.4 -139.4 139.4 0.0 0.0

2018 0.0 148.8 148.8 -288.2 153.2 0.0 0.0

2019 0.0 153.7 153.7 -441.9 163.1 0.0 0.0

2020 0.0 157.8 157.8 -599.7 172.6 0.0 0.0

2021 0.0 161.8 161.8 -761.4 182.2 0.0 0.0

2022 0.0 165.0 165.0 -926.5 191.5 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 167.4 167.4 -1,093.9 200.7 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 169.5 169.5 -1,263.4 210.1 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 172.2 172.2 -1,435.6 223.2 0.0 0.0

2026 0.0 174.5 174.5 -1,610.1 237.0 0.0 0.0

2027 0.0 176.2 176.2 -1,786.3 251.6 0.0 0.0

2028 0.0 177.5 177.5 -1,963.8 267.2 0.0 0.0

2029 0.0 178.1 178.1 -2,142.0 283.7 0.0 0.0

2030 0.0 178.7 178.7 -2,320.6 293.8 0.0 0.0

2031 0.0 179.3 179.3 -2,499.9 304.0 0.0 0.0

2032 0.0 180.1 180.1 -2,680.0 314.4 0.0 0.0

2033 0.0 181.1 181.1 -2,861.1 325.1 0.0 0.0

2034 0.0 178.7 178.7 -3,039.8 332.5 0.0 0.0

2035 0.0 174.6 174.6 -3,214.4 337.9 0.0 0.0

2036 0.0 170.5 170.5 -3,384.9 343.2 0.0 0.0

2037 0.0 166.6 166.6 -3,551.5 348.5 0.0 0.0

2038 0.0 163.0 163.0 -3,714.5 353.8 0.0 0.0

2039 0.0 159.4 159.4 -3,873.9 359.0 0.0 0.0

2040 0.0 156.1 156.1 -4,030.0 364.2 0.0 0.0

2041 0.0 153.0 153.0 -4,182.9 369.5 0.0 0.0

2042 0.0 150.0 150.0 -4,332.9 374.7 0.0 0.0

2043 0.0 147.2 147.2 -4,480.1 380.0 0.0 0.0

2044 0.0 144.4 144.4 -4,624.5 385.2 0.0 0.0

2045 0.0 141.7 141.7 -4,766.3 390.2 0.0 0.0

2046 0.0 139.2 139.2 -4,905.5 395.3 0.0 0.0

2047 0.0 136.8 136.8 -5,042.2 400.3 0.0 0.0

2048 0.0 134.4 134.4 -5,176.6 405.3 0.0 0.0

2049 0.0 132.1 132.1 -5,308.7 410.2 0.0 0.0

2050 0.0 129.8 129.8 -5,438.4 415.0 0.0 0.0

2051 0.0 127.6 127.6 -5,566.0 419.8 0.0 0.0

2052 0.0 125.4 125.4 -5,691.4 424.5 0.0 0.0

2053 0.0 123.3 123.3 -5,814.8 429.2 0.0 0.0

2054 0.0 121.3 121.3 -5,936.1 433.8 0.0 0.0

2055 0.0 119.3 119.3 -6,055.4 438.3 0.0 0.0

2056 0.0 117.4 117.4 -6,172.9 442.8 0.0 0.0

2057 0.0 115.6 115.6 -6,288.4 447.2 0.0 0.0

2058 0.0 113.8 113.8 -6,402.2 451.6 0.0 0.0

2059 0.0 112.0 112.0 -6,514.2 456.0 0.0 0.0

2060 0.0 110.4 110.4 -6,624.6 460.4 0.0 0.0

2061 0.0 108.7 108.7 -6,733.3 464.7 0.0 0.0

2062 0.0 107.2 107.2 -6,840.5 469.0 0.0 0.0

2063 0.0 105.6 105.6 -6,946.1 473.2 0.0 0.0

2064 0.0 104.1 104.1 -7,050.2 477.3 0.0 0.0

2065 0.0 102.7 102.7 -7,152.8 481.5 0.0 0.0

2066 0.0 101.2 101.2 -7,254.1 485.6 0.0 0.0

2067 0.0 99.9 99.9 -7,353.9 489.6 0.0 0.0

2068 0.0 98.5 98.5 -7,452.4 493.6 0.0 0.0

2069 0.0 97.1 97.1 -7,549.6 497.6 0.0 0.0

2070 0.0 95.8 95.8 -7,645.4 501.5 0.0 0.0

2071 0.0 94.6 94.6 -7,740.0 505.4 0.0 0.0

2072 0.0 93.4 93.4 -7,833.4 509.3 0.0 0.0

2073 0.0 92.2 92.2 -7,925.6 513.1 0.0 0.0

2074 0.0 91.1 91.1 -8,016.7 517.0 0.0 0.0

2075 0.0 90.0 90.0 -8,106.7 520.7 0.0 0.0

2076 0.0 88.9 88.9 -8,195.6 524.5 0.0 0.0

2077 0.0 87.9 87.9 -8,283.5 528.2 0.0 0.0

2078 0.0 86.8 86.8 -8,370.3 531.9 0.0 0.0

2079 0.0 85.8 85.8 -8,456.2 535.6 0.0 0.0

2080 0.0 84.8 84.8 -8,541.0 539.2 0.0 0.0

2081 0.0 83.9 83.9 -8,624.9 542.8 0.0 0.0

2082 0.0 82.9 82.9 -8,707.7 546.3 0.0 0.0

2083 0.0 81.9 81.9 -8,789.6 549.7 0.0 0.0

2084 0.0 80.9 80.9 -8,870.5 553.1 0.0 0.0

2085 0.0 79.9 79.9 -8,950.3 556.5 0.0 0.0

2086 0.0 78.8 78.8 -9,029.2 559.8 0.0 0.0

2087 0.0 77.8 77.8 -9,107.0 563.0 0.0 0.0

2088 0.0 76.8 76.8 -9,183.8 566.2 0.0 0.0

2089 0.0 75.8 75.8 -9,259.7 569.3 0.0 0.0

Total 2015-2089 0.0 9,259.7 9,259.7

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report.

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%.

Note: Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would Office of the Chief Actuary

 nonetheless be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. Social Security Administration

1

 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table. February 4, 2016

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2015
Table 1b.n - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1

 (Nominal Dollars)

S.731, "The Social Security Expansion Act", introduced by Senator Sanders

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2017 0.0 151.0 151.0 -153.6 153.6 0.0 0.0

2018 0.0 166.4 166.4 -328.5 174.8 0.0 0.0

2019 0.0 177.6 177.6 -521.3 192.9 0.0 0.0

2020 0.0 188.6 188.6 -733.1 211.8 0.0 0.0

2021 0.0 200.1 200.1 -965.3 232.2 0.0 0.0

2022 0.0 211.4 211.4 -1,219.1 253.7 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 222.3 222.3 -1,495.6 276.5 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 233.5 233.5 -1,797.1 301.5 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 246.8 246.8 -2,130.5 333.5 0.0 0.0

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report.

Note: Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would Office of the Chief Actuary

 nonetheless be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. Social Security Administration

1

 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table. February 4, 2016

Billions of Nominal Dollars
Table 1c - Present Law and Proposal Cost, Expenditures, and Income: As Percent of Gross Domestic Product

Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

2015 4.98 4.98 4.52 4.98 4.98 4.52

2016 4.89 4.89 4.54 4.89 4.89 4.54

2017 4.96 4.96 4.61 4.97 4.97 5.36

2018 5.02 5.02 4.65 5.04 5.04 5.45

2019 5.10 5.10 4.68 5.13 5.13 5.51

2020 5.17 5.17 4.71 5.21 5.21 5.55

2021 5.23 5.23 4.74 5.29 5.29 5.60

2022 5.31 5.31 4.76 5.39 5.39 5.65

2023 5.41 5.41 4.78 5.49 5.49 5.68

2024 5.50 5.50 4.80 5.60 5.60 5.72

2025 5.57 5.57 4.80 5.68 5.68 5.75

2026 5.63 5.63 4.80 5.76 5.76 5.77

2027 5.70 5.70 4.80 5.84 5.84 5.79

2028 5.76 5.76 4.80 5.91 5.91 5.81

2029 5.82 5.82 4.80 5.98 5.98 5.83

2030 5.87 5.87 4.80 6.05 6.05 5.86

2031 5.91 5.91 4.79 6.11 6.11 5.89

2032 5.95 5.95 4.79 6.16 6.16 5.91

2033 5.98 5.98 4.79 6.21 6.21 5.94

2034 6.00 5.00 4.78 6.24 6.24 5.95

2035 6.02 4.78 4.78 6.27 6.27 5.95

2036 6.04 4.78 4.78 6.30 6.30 5.95

2037 6.05 4.78 4.78 6.33 6.33 5.95

2038 6.04 4.77 4.77 6.34 6.34 5.95

2039 6.04 4.77 4.77 6.35 6.35 5.95

2040 6.03 4.77 4.77 6.35 6.35 5.95

2041 6.02 4.76 4.76 6.35 6.35 5.95

2042 6.00 4.76 4.76 6.34 6.34 5.95

2043 5.99 4.76 4.76 6.34 6.34 5.95

2044 5.98 4.76 4.76 6.34 6.34 5.95

2045 5.97 4.75 4.75 6.34 6.34 5.95

2046 5.96 4.75 4.75 6.33 6.33 5.95

2047 5.95 4.75 4.75 6.33 6.33 5.95

2048 5.94 4.75 4.75 6.33 6.33 5.95

2049 5.93 4.74 4.74 6.33 6.33 5.95

2050 5.93 4.74 4.74 6.34 6.34 5.95

2051 5.93 4.74 4.74 6.35 6.35 5.95

2052 5.93 4.74 4.74 6.35 6.35 5.95

2053 5.94 4.73 4.73 6.37 6.37 5.95

2054 5.95 4.73 4.73 6.38 6.38 5.95

2055 5.96 4.73 4.73 6.40 6.40 5.95

2056 5.98 4.72 4.72 6.42 6.42 5.95

2057 5.99 4.72 4.72 6.43 6.43 5.95

2058 6.00 4.72 4.72 6.45 6.45 5.94

2059 6.02 4.72 4.72 6.47 6.47 5.94

2060 6.03 4.71 4.71 6.49 6.49 5.94

2061 6.04 4.71 4.71 6.50 6.50 5.94

2062 6.05 4.71 4.71 6.52 6.52 5.94

2063 6.07 4.70 4.70 6.53 6.53 5.93

2064 6.08 4.70 4.70 6.55 6.55 5.93

2065 6.09 4.69 4.69 6.56 6.56 5.93

2066 6.10 4.69 4.69 6.57 6.57 5.92

2067 6.11 4.68 4.68 6.59 6.59 5.92

2068 6.13 4.68 4.68 6.60 6.60 5.91

2069 6.14 4.67 4.67 6.62 6.62 5.91

2070 6.15 4.67 4.67 6.63 6.63 5.91

2071 6.16 4.67 4.67 6.64 6.64 5.90

2072 6.17 4.66 4.66 6.65 6.65 5.90

2073 6.18 4.66 4.66 6.66 6.66 5.89

2074 6.18 4.65 4.65 6.66 6.07 5.89

2075 6.18 4.65 4.65 6.66 5.89 5.89

2076 6.18 4.64 4.64 6.66 5.88 5.88

2077 6.17 4.64 4.64 6.66 5.87 5.87

2078 6.16 4.63 4.63 6.65 5.87 5.87

2079 6.16 4.63 4.63 6.64 5.86 5.86

2080 6.15 4.62 4.62 6.64 5.86 5.86

2081 6.15 4.62 4.62 6.63 5.86 5.86

2082 6.14 4.61 4.61 6.63 5.85 5.85

2083 6.14 4.61 4.61 6.63 5.85 5.85

2084 6.15 4.60 4.60 6.64 5.84 5.84

2085 6.16 4.60 4.60 6.64 5.84 5.84

2086 6.16 4.60 4.60 6.65 5.84 5.84

2087 6.17 4.59 4.59 6.66 5.84 5.84

2088 6.18 4.59 4.59 6.67 5.83 5.83

2089 6.19 4.59 4.59 6.68 5.83 5.83

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

February 4, 2016

S.731, "The Social Security Expansion Act", introduced by Senator Sanders

Present Law OASDI Proposal OASDI

Calendar

Year
Table 1d - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Reserves / Unfunded Obligation

S.731, "The Social Security Expansion Act", introduced by Senator Sanders

Year

Present Law OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Total Change

Through

End of Year

Proposal OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) = cumulative sum(4) (6) = (1)+(5)

2015 2,707.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,707.3

2016 2,643.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,643.2

2017 2,578.0 141.4 2.0 139.4 139.4 2,717.4

2018 2,507.4 152.8 4.0 148.8 288.2 2,795.6

2019 2,427.9 160.1 6.4 153.7 441.9 2,869.7

2020 2,337.6 166.8 9.0 157.8 599.7 2,937.3

2021 2,238.5 173.4 11.7 161.8 761.4 2,999.9

2022 2,127.1 179.4 14.4 165.0 926.5 3,053.6

2023 2,000.5 184.7 17.2 167.4 1,093.9 3,094.4

2024 1,857.5 189.6 20.2 169.5 1,263.4 3,120.9

2025 1,699.7 195.2 23.0 172.2 1,435.6 3,135.2

2026 1,527.9 200.4 25.9 174.5 1,610.1 3,137.9

2027 1,343.1 204.9 28.7 176.2 1,786.3 3,129.4

2028 1,146.5 208.9 31.4 177.5 1,963.8 3,110.3

2029 939.8 212.1 34.0 178.1 2,142.0 3,081.7

2030 724.6 215.2 36.5 178.7 2,320.6 3,045.2

2031 502.3 218.2 38.9 179.3 2,499.9 3,002.3

2032 274.5 221.4 41.3 180.1 2,680.0 2,954.5

2033 42.8 224.8 43.7 181.1 2,861.1 2,903.9

2034 -190.6 224.6 45.9 178.7 3,039.8 2,849.3

2035 -425.3 222.7 48.1 174.6 3,214.4 2,789.1

2036 -660.8 220.7 50.2 170.5 3,384.9 2,724.2

2037 -895.6 218.9 52.3 166.6 3,551.5 2,655.9

2038 -1,128.4 217.1 54.1 163.0 3,714.5 2,586.1

2039 -1,358.1 215.2 55.8 159.4 3,873.9 2,515.8

2040 -1,584.1 213.4 57.4 156.1 4,030.0 2,445.9

2041 -1,806.0 211.7 58.7 153.0 4,182.9 2,377.0

2042 -2,023.8 210.0 60.0 150.0 4,332.9 2,309.1

2043 -2,237.7 208.3 61.1 147.2 4,480.1 2,242.4

2044 -2,447.6 206.5 62.1 144.4 4,624.5 2,176.9

2045 -2,653.8 204.7 63.0 141.7 4,766.3 2,112.4

2046 -2,856.3 202.9 63.7 139.2 4,905.5 2,049.1

2047 -3,055.5 201.1 64.4 136.8 5,042.2 1,986.7

2048 -3,251.6 199.3 64.9 134.4 5,176.6 1,925.0

2049 -3,444.8 197.4 65.3 132.1 5,308.7 1,863.9

2050 -3,635.7 195.4 65.6 129.8 5,438.4 1,802.8

2051 -3,824.8 193.5 65.9 127.6 5,566.0 1,741.2

2052 -4,012.6 191.5 66.1 125.4 5,691.4 1,678.9

2053 -4,199.5 189.5 66.2 123.3 5,814.8 1,615.3

2054 -4,386.0 187.6 66.2 121.3 5,936.1 1,550.1

2055 -4,572.4 185.6 66.2 119.3 6,055.4 1,483.0

2056 -4,758.9 183.6 66.1 117.4 6,172.9 1,413.9

2057 -4,945.7 181.6 66.0 115.6 6,288.4 1,342.8

2058 -5,132.6 179.6 65.8 113.8 6,402.2 1,269.6

2059 -5,319.5 177.6 65.5 112.0 6,514.2 1,194.7

2060 -5,506.5 175.6 65.2 110.4 6,624.6 1,118.0

2061 -5,693.5 173.6 64.9 108.7 6,733.3 1,039.8

2062 -5,880.4 171.7 64.5 107.2 6,840.5 960.0

2063 -6,067.3 169.7 64.1 105.6 6,946.1 878.8

2064 -6,254.0 167.8 63.7 104.1 7,050.2 796.2

2065 -6,440.7 165.9 63.2 102.7 7,152.8 712.1

2066 -6,627.4 164.0 62.7 101.2 7,254.1 626.7

2067 -6,814.1 162.1 62.2 99.9 7,353.9 539.8

2068 -7,000.8 160.2 61.7 98.5 7,452.4 451.6

2069 -7,187.5 158.3 61.2 97.1 7,549.6 362.1

2070 -7,374.0 156.5 60.7 95.8 7,645.4 271.4

2071 -7,560.2 154.7 60.1 94.6 7,740.0 179.8

2072 -7,745.7 153.0 59.6 93.4 7,833.4 87.7

2073 -7,930.3 151.2 59.0 92.2 7,925.6 -4.7

2074 -8,113.7 149.5 58.4 91.1 8,016.7 -96.9

2075 -8,295.5 147.8 57.8 90.0 8,106.7 -188.8

2076 -8,475.4 146.1 57.1 88.9 8,195.6 -279.7

2077 -8,653.2 144.4 56.5 87.9 8,283.5 -369.7

2078 -8,828.7 142.7 55.8 86.8 8,370.3 -458.4

2079 -9,002.0 141.0 55.2 85.8 8,456.2 -545.8

2080 -9,173.1 139.4 54.5 84.8 8,541.0 -632.1

2081 -9,342.2 137.7 53.9 83.9 8,624.9 -717.3

2082 -9,509.5 136.1 53.2 82.9 8,707.7 -801.8

2083 -9,675.4 134.5 52.6 81.9 8,789.6 -885.8

2084 -9,840.1 132.9 52.0 80.9 8,870.5 -969.6

2085 -10,003.7 131.3 51.5 79.9 8,950.3 -1,053.4

2086 -10,166.5 129.7 50.9 78.8 9,029.2 -1,137.3

2087 -10,328.5 128.2 50.3 77.8 9,107.0 -1,221.5

2088 -10,489.7 126.6 49.8 76.8 9,183.8 -1,305.9

2089 -10,650.3 125.1 49.3 75.8 9,259.7 -1,390.6

Total 2015-2089 12966.3 3706.7 9259.7

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%. February 4, 2016

(Billions of Dollars, Present Value on 1-1-2015)