SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE, MD 21235-0001

SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

February 13, 2019

The Honorable Bernie Sanders

United States Senate

Washington, D.C. 20510

The Honorable Peter DeFazio

United States House of Representatives

Washington, D.C. 20515

Dear Senator Sanders and Representative DeFazio:

I am writing in response to your request for our estimates of the financial effects on the Social 

Security (OASDI) program assuming enactment of the “Social Security Expansion Act”, which

you introduced today in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. The estimates 

provided here reflect the intermediate assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report. These Bills

(hereafter referred to as the proposal) include eight provisions with direct effects on the Social 

Security Trust Funds. We have enjoyed working closely with Jeff Cruz and Rina Wulfing of 

your staffs in developing this proposal to meet your goals. The estimates and analysis provided 

here reflect the combined effort of many in the Office of the Chief Actuary, but most particularly 

Karen Glenn, Chris Chaplain, Daniel Nickerson, Kyle Burkhalter, Anna Kirjusina, Katie Sutton, 

and Tiffany Bosley.

The enclosed tables provide estimates of the effects of the eight provisions on the cost, income, 

and combined trust fund reserves for the Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI)

program, as well as estimated effects on retired worker benefit levels for selected hypothetical 

workers and effects of payroll tax levels. In addition, tables 1b and 1b.n provide estimates of the 

federal budget implications of the eight provisions. Assuming enactment of the proposal, we 

estimate that the funding for the combined Social Security Trust Fund would be sufficient to 

extend the projected year of reserve depletion for the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds from 

2034 to 2071, under the intermediate assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.

The proposal includes eight basic provisions with direct effects on the OASDI program. The

following list identifies each provision with the corresponding section number in the proposal:

Section 2. Increase the first PIA bend point above the current-law level for workers who 

become newly eligible for retirement or disability benefits or die after 2024. Phase in an 

ultimate 15-percent increase in the first bend point by raising it 1 percent above the currentlaw level for workers becoming newly eligible or dying in 2025, 2 percent for workers 
Page 2 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders and the Honorable Peter DeFazio

becoming newly eligible or dying in 2026, and so on, until it reaches 15 percent for workers 

becoming newly eligible or dying in 2039 and later.

Section 3. Use the increase in the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E) rather than 

the increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers 

(CPI-W) to calculate the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), effective for December 2021 and 

later COLAs. We assume this change would increase the COLA by an average of 0.2 

percentage point per year.

Section 4. Increase the special minimum PIA for workers who become newly eligible for 

retirement or disability benefits or die in 2020 or later. For workers becoming newly eligible 

or dying in 2020, the minimum initial PIA for workers with 30 or more years of coverage 

(YOCs) is 125 percent of the annual poverty guideline for a single individual, as published 

by the Department of Health and Human Services for 2019, divided by 12. For workers 

becoming newly eligible or dying after 2018, the minimum initial PIA increases by the 

growth in the national average wage index (AWI).

Section 5. Continue benefits for children of disabled, or deceased workers until they attain 

age 22 if the child is in high school, college, or vocational school, beginning in 2020.

Sections 6 and 7. Apply the combined OASDI payroll tax rate on earnings above $250,000, 

effective for 2020 and later. Tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds 

$250,000. Do not credit the additional taxed earnings for benefit purposes.

Section 8. Apply a separate 6.2-percent tax on investment income as defined in the 

Affordable Care Act (ACA), payable to the OASI and DI Trust Funds with unindexed 

thresholds as in the ACA, effective for 2020 and later. The ACA thresholds are $200,000 for 

a single filer and $250,000 for a married couple filing jointly. Under this provision, there is 

no limit on the amount taxed.

Section 9. Combine the current separate Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) and 

Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Funds into a single Social Security Trust Fund, effective 

January 1, 2020.

The balance of this letter provides a summary of the effects of the eight provisions on the 

actuarial status of the OASDI program, our understanding of the specifications and intent of each 

of the eight provisions, and descriptions of our detailed financial estimates for trust fund 

operations, benefit levels, and implications for the federal budget. See the “Specification for 

Provisions of the Proposal” section of this letter for a more detailed description of these eight

provisions.

Summary of Effects of the Proposal on OASDI Actuarial Status

Figure 1 illustrates the projected OASDI Trust Fund ratio through 2092 under current law and 

assuming enactment of the proposal. The trust fund ratio is defined as the combined Social 

Security Trust Fund reserves expressed as a percent of annual program cost. Assuming 

enactment of the proposal, we estimate the year of depletion of the combined Social Security
Page 3 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders and the Honorable Peter DeFazio

Trust Fund reserves would be extended from 2034 under current law to 2071, under the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.

Note: Trust Fund Ratio for a given year is the ratio of reserves in the combined Social Security Trust Fund at the 

beginning of the year to the cost of the program for the year.

Under current law, 79 percent of scheduled benefits are projected to be payable on a timely basis 

in 2034 after depletion of the combined trust fund reserves, with the percentage payable 

declining to 75 percent for 2071 and to 74 percent for 2092. Under the proposal, 89 percent of 

scheduled benefits are projected to be payable in 2071 after depletion of the combined trust fund 

reserves, with this percentage declining to 88 percent for 2092. Enactment of the eight provisions 

of this proposal would reduce the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit of 2.84 percent of taxable 

payroll under current law to 0.62 percent of payroll under the proposal.

Figure 2 illustrates annual projected levels of cost, expenditures, and non-interest income as a 

percent of the current-law taxable payroll. The projected level of cost reflects the full cost of 

scheduled benefits under both current law and the proposal. Under the proposal, projected 

expenditures equal the full cost of scheduled benefits through 2070, the year prior to trust fund 

reserve depletion.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2018 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095

Trust Fund Ratio

Figure 1. Current Law and Proposal OASDI Trust Fund Reserves as 

Percent of Annual Cost: 2018 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Current Law Trust Fund Ratio

Proposal
Page 4 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders and the Honorable Peter DeFazio

OASDI program cost is higher under the proposal than under current law, starting in 2020. This 

difference in program cost increases quickly at first, then increases gradually over time to about 

1.4 percent of current-law payroll by 2092. Non-interest income under the proposal is also higher 

than under current law, with the difference in non-interest income growing from 2.1 percent of 

current-law payroll for 2020 to 3.6 percent of current-law payroll by 2092. The proposal 

improves the annual balance (non-interest income minus program cost) by 2.6 percent of payroll 

for 2034, with the improvement declining to 2.2 percent of payroll for 2092. Under the proposal, 

the annual balance is negative in 2018 and 2019, positive from 2020 through 2027, and then 

negative through the end of the long-range period. The annual deficit generally increases to 2.1

percent of payroll for 2092. Under current law, the projected annual deficit for 2092 is 4.3

percent of payroll.

It is also useful to consider the projected cost, expenditures, and income for the OASDI program 

expressed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Figure 3 illustrates these levels 

under both current law and the proposal.

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

2018 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095

Percent of Current-Law Taxable Payroll

Figure 2. Proposal and Current Law Cost, Expenditures, and Non-Interest 

Income as Percent of Taxable Payroll: 2018 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Current Law Cost

Current Law Non-Interest Income

Current Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Non-Interest Income

Proposal Expenditures
Page 5 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders and the Honorable Peter DeFazio

Specification for Provisions of the Proposal

Section 2. Increase the first PIA bend point above the current-law level for workers 

becoming newly eligible for retirement or disability benefits or dying after 2024.

Under current law, any portion of the AIME that is below the first PIA bend point is multiplied 

by a factor of 0.90 in computing the PIA. The first bend point is changed (indexed) each year for 

those becoming newly eligible in the year by the increase or decrease in the AWI from the third 

prior year to the second prior year. This provision would increase the level of the first PIA bend 

point, from the level that would apply under current law, by 1 percent for workers becoming 

newly eligible or dying in 2025, by 2 percent for workers becoming newly eligible or dying in 

2026, and so on, until it reaches 15 percent for workers becoming newly eligible or dying in 

2039 and all subsequent years.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.37 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2092) by 0.70 percent of payroll.

Section 3. Use the CPI-E increase rather than the CPI-W increase to calculate the COLA, 

effective for December 2021 and later COLAs.

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

2018 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095

Percent of GDP

Figure 3. Proposal and Current Law Cost, Expenditures, and Non-Interest 

Income as Percent of GDP: 2018 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Current Law Cost

Current Law Non-Interest Income

Current Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Non-Interest Income

Proposal Expenditures
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Under current law, the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) applied to Social Security 

benefits is calculated using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical 

Workers (CPI-W). We estimate that using the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E)

increase rather than the CPI-W increase in each year beginning with the December 2021 COLA 

would increase the effective COLA by 0.2 percentage point per year on average.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.39 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2092) by 0.54 percent of payroll.

Section 4. Increase the special minimum PIA for workers who become newly eligible for 

retirement or disability benefits or die in 2020 and later.

Under this provision, the minimum initial PIA for worker beneficiaries becoming newly eligible 

in 2020 with 30 or more years of coverage (YOCs) would be 125 percent of the annual poverty 

guideline for a single individual, as published by the Department of Health and Human Services 

for 2019, divided by 12. For those with less than 30 YOCs, the minimum PIA per YOC in excess 

of 10 is the minimum PIA for workers with 30 or more YOCs, divided by 20. Any year in which 

a worker earns 4 quarters of coverage is determined to be a YOC. For beneficiaries becoming 

newly eligible after 2020, the initial PIA per YOC in excess of 10 is indexed by growth in the 

national average wage index (AWI) to determine the minimum applicable for the year of initial 

eligibility. After the year of initial eligibility, the minimum PIA per YOC is increased by the 

COLA.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.12 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2092) by 0.17 percent of payroll.

Section 5. Continue benefits for children of disabled or deceased workers until age 22 if the 

child is in high school, college, or vocational school, beginning in 2020.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.06 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2092) by 0.06 percent of payroll.

Sections 6 and 7. Apply the combined OASDI payroll tax rate on earnings above $250,000, 

effective for 2020 and later.

This provision applies the OASDI payroll tax rate to earnings above $250,000 in 2020 and later. 

The $250,000 level is a fixed amount after 2020 and not indexed to the average wage increase. 

All earnings would be taxed once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $250,000, which is 

projected to occur in 2034. Any earnings above the higher of $250,000 or the current-law taxable 

maximum in a given year would not be credited for benefit computation purposes.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 2.18 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2092) by 2.46 percent of payroll.
Page 7 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders and the Honorable Peter DeFazio

Section 8. Apply a separate 6.2-percent tax on investment income, as defined in the 

Affordable Care Act (ACA), payable to the OASI and DI Trust Funds with unindexed 

thresholds as in the ACA, effective for 2020 and later.

The ACA thresholds for Modified Adjusted Gross Income, or MAGI (AGI with adjustments for 

specific circumstances), are $200,000 for a single filer and $250,000 for a married couple filing 

jointly. This provision applies a 6.2 percent Social Security tax to the lesser of MAGI above 

these thresholds and total investment income, in the same way as the 3.8 percent tax on 

investment income that went into effect in 2013 under the ACA. Under this provision, there is no 

limit on the amount taxed.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.94 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2092) by 1.16 percent of payroll.

Section 9. Combine the current separate Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) and 

Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Funds into a single Social Security Trust Fund, effective 

January 1, 2020.

The primary financial effect of enactment of this provision would be to eliminate the possibility 

of OASI or DI Trust Fund reserve depletion affecting some Social Security beneficiaries when 

sufficient reserves are available in the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds to maintain payment 

of all Social Security benefits in full on a timely basis. Specifically, under current law and the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report, the reserves of DI Trust Fund are 

projected to become depleted in 2032. At that time, DI benefits would be reduced by 4 percent. 

However, reserves in the OASI Trust Fund are not projected to become depleted until 2034. 

Enactment of this Bill would consolidate the reserves of the OASI and DI Trust Funds, as well as 

future income and obligations for the separate programs, as of January 1, 2020. As a result, the 

consolidated Social Security Trust Fund would be projected to be adequately financed with all 

OASI and DI benefits payable in full on a timely basis until consolidated reserves become 

depleted in 2034. The projected reserve depletion date for the consolidated Social Security Trust 

Fund is 2 years later than projected for the separate DI Trust Fund and the same as projected for 

the separate OASI Trust fund under current law.

We estimate that the change in the long-range OASDI annual balance and the change in the

annual deficit for the 75th projection year (2092) from enactment of this provision alone would

be negligible: that is, between -0.005 and 0.005 percent of taxable payroll.

Detailed Financial Results for the Provisions of the Proposal

Summary Results by Provision

Table A provides estimates of the effects on the OASDI long-range actuarial balance for the 

eight provisions of the proposal separately and on a combined basis. The table also includes 

estimates of the effect of the provisions on the annual balance (the difference between income 

rate and the cost rate, expressed as a percent of current-law taxable payroll) for the 75th
Page 8 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders and the Honorable Peter DeFazio

projection year, 2092. Interaction among individual provisions is reflected only in the total 

estimates for the combined provisions.

Benefit Illustrations

Tables B1 and B2 provide illustrative examples of the projected change in benefit levels under 

the three provisions of the proposal that for beneficiaries retiring and starting benefit receipt at 

age 65 in future years at six selected earnings levels, with selected numbers of years of work. 

The “Maximum-AIME Steady Earner” is assumed to have earnings at ages 22 through 64 that 

equal the current-law taxable maximum level (equivalent to $128,400 for 2018) and the “Twice 

Maximum-AIME Steady Earner” is assumed to have earnings at ages 22 through 64 that equal 

twice the current-law taxable maximum level (equivalent to $256,800 for 2018). As a result, the 

provision to tax and credit earnings above the current-law taxable maximum affects only the 

“Twice Maximum-AIME Steady Earner” benefit level. Table B3 provides additional important 

information on characteristics of retired workers represented by these illustrations for the year 

2007.

The first several columns of Table B1 compare the initial scheduled benefit levels, assuming 

retirement at age 65 under the provisions of the proposal, to scheduled current-law benefit levels. 

All scheduled benefit amounts under the proposal are higher than those scheduled in current law, 

with the largest percentage increases for the very-low and low hypothetical earners with at least 

30 years of earnings (due largely to the minimum benefit provision). The final three columns of 

this table show the level of scheduled benefits under the proposal as a percentage of current-law 

scheduled benefits, the level of scheduled benefits under the proposal as a percentage of currentlaw payable benefits, and the level of payable benefits under the proposal as a percentage of 

current-law payable benefits, respectively.

Table B2 compares the change in scheduled benefit levels at ages 65, 75, 85, and 95 under the 

proposal to scheduled benefits under current law, assuming retirement and start of benefit receipt

at age 65. Table B2 shows that projected scheduled benefits under the provisions of this proposal 

increase in relation to current-law scheduled benefits between ages 65 and 95, because of the 

change in computing the COLA.

The hypothetical workers represented in these tables reflect average career-earnings patterns of 

workers who started receiving retirement benefits under the Social Security program in recent 

years. The tables subdivide workers with very-low, low, and medium career-average earnings 

levels by their numbers of years of non-zero earnings.

Table B3 provides information helpful in interpreting the benefit illustrations in tables B1 and 

B2. Percentages in Table B3 are based on tabulations from a 10-percent sample of newly-entitled 

retired workers in 2007. Table B3 displays the percentages of these newly-entitled retired 

workers in 2007 that are closest to each of the illustrative examples and are:

1) “Dually Entitled”, meaning they received a higher spouse or widow(er) benefit based on 

the career earnings of their husband or wife,

2) “WEP” (Windfall Elimination Provision), meaning that they received a reduced benefit 

due to having a pension based on earnings that were not covered under the OASDI 
Page 9 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders and the Honorable Peter DeFazio

program (primarily certain government workers), and they had less than 30 years of 

substantial earnings that were taxable under the OASDI program,

3) “Foreign Born”, meaning that they entered the Social Security coverage area after birth 

(and generally after entering working ages), and

4) “All Others”, meaning they had none of the three characteristics listed above.

The extent to which retired-worker beneficiaries represented by each of the illustrative examples 

has any of the characteristics listed above (dually entitled, WEP, foreign born) is important 

because such individuals are less dependent on the OASDI benefit that relates to their own 

career-average earnings level. It should be noted that the distributions shown in Table B3 for 

retirees in 2007 will be changing somewhat for beneficiaries becoming entitled as retired-worker 

beneficiaries in the future.

Payroll Tax Effects

Table T compares the scheduled payroll tax levels under the provisions of the proposal to 

scheduled current-law payroll tax levels. Under the proposal, workers with covered earnings in 

excess of the higher of $250,000 and the current-law taxable maximum would, along with their 

employers, pay additional payroll taxes. Because the payroll tax would additionally apply to 

annual earnings in excess of $250,000 starting in 2020, payroll tax liability would increase in 

2020 and later. Table T shows that the worker with earnings at twice the current-law taxable 

maximum in 2030 would have payroll tax liability increased by 80.1 percent. By 2050, workers 

with earnings at twice the current-law taxable maximum would have payroll tax liability 

increased by 100 percent.

Detailed Tables Containing Annual and Summary Projections

Enclosed with this letter are tables 1, 1a, 1b, 1b.n, 1c, and 1d, which provide annual and 

summary projections for the proposal.

Trust Fund Operations

Table 1 provides projections of the financial operations of the OASDI program under the 

proposal and shows that the year of reserve depletion for the combined OASDI Trust Funds 

would be extended by 37 years, from 2034 under current law to 2071. The table shows the

annual cost and income rates, annual balances, and trust fund ratios (reserves as percent of 

annual program cost) for OASDI, as well as the change from current law in these cost rates, 

income rates, and annual balances. Included at the bottom of this table are summarized rates for 

the 75-year (long-range) period.

For 2020 and later, the proposal improves the annual balance (non-interest income minus 

program cost). The improvement in the annual balance increases from 2.0 percent of current-law 

payroll for 2020 to 2.6 percent for 2035, and thereafter generally decreases slightly to 2.2 percent 

for 2092. Under the proposal, the annual balance is negative in 2018 and 2019, positive from 

2020 through 2027, and then negative through the end of the long-range period. The annual 

deficit generally increases to 2.1 percent of payroll for 2092. Under current law, the projected 

annual deficit for 2092 is 4.3 percent of payroll.
Page 10 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders and the Honorable Peter DeFazio

The actuarial balance for the OASDI program over the 75-year projection period is improved by 

2.22 percent of taxable payroll, from an actuarial deficit of 2.84 percent of payroll under current 

law to an actuarial deficit of 0.62 percent of taxable payroll under the proposal.

Program Transfers and Trust Fund Reserves

Column 4 of Table 1a provides a projection of the level of reserves for the combined Social 

Security Trust Fund, assuming enactment of the eight Social Security provisions of the proposal. 

These trust fund reserve amounts are expressed in present value dollars discounted to January 1, 

2018. The table indicates that the provisions include no new specified transfers of general 

revenue to the combined Social Security Trust Fund. For purpose of comparison, the OASDI 

Trust Fund reserves, expressed in present value dollars, are also shown for the current-law Social 

Security program both without and with the added proposal general fund transfers (zero for this 

proposal) in columns 6 and 7.

Note that negative values in columns 6 and 7 represent the “unfunded obligation” for the 

program through the year. The unfunded obligation is the present value of the shortfall of 

revenue needed to pay full scheduled benefits on a timely basis from the date of trust fund 

reserve depletion through the end of the indicated year. Gross Domestic Product (GDP),

expressed in present value dollars, is shown in column 5 for comparison with other values in the 

table.

Effect of the Social Security Provisions on the Federal Budget

Table 1b shows the projected effect, in present value discounted dollars, on the federal budget 

(unified-budget and on-budget) annual cash flows and balances, assuming enactment of the eight 

Social Security provisions of the proposal. Table 1b.n provides the estimated nominal dollar 

effect of enactment of the proposal on annual budget balances for years 2018 through 2028. All 

values in these tables represent the amount of change from the level projected under current law. 

In addition, changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits, not payable 

under the law after depletion of trust fund reserves, would still be paid using revenue provided 

from the General Fund of the Treasury. The reader should be cautioned that this presumption of 

payment of benefits beyond the resources of the trust funds is prohibited under current law and is 

also inconsistent with all past experience under the Social Security program.

Column 1 of Table 1b shows the added proposal general fund transfers (zero for this proposal).

Column 2 shows the net changes in OASDI cash flow from all provisions of the proposal.

We project the net effect of the proposal on unified budget cash flow (column 3) to be positive in 

years 2020 and later, reflecting the newly applied tax on investment income in section 8 and the 

payroll tax newly applied to earnings above $250,000 in sections 6 and 7.

Column 4 of Table 1b indicates that the effect of implementing the proposal is a reduction of the 

theoretical federal debt held by the public, reaching about $11.0 trillion in present value at the 

end of the 75-year projection period. Column 5 provides the projected effect of the proposal on 

the annual unified budget balances, including both the cash flow effect in column 3 and the 
Page 11 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders and the Honorable Peter DeFazio

additional interest on the accumulated debt in column 4. Columns 6 and 7 indicate that the 

provisions of this proposal would have no expected direct effects on the on-budget cash flow, or 

on the total federal debt, in the future.

It is important to note that we base these estimates on the intermediate assumptions of the 2018

Trustees Report, so these estimates are not consistent with estimates made by the Office of 

Management and Budget or the Congressional Budget Office based on their assumptions. In 

particular, all present values are discounted using trust fund yield assumptions under the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.

Annual Trust Fund Operations as a Percent of GDP

Table 1c provides annual cost, annual expenditures (amount that would be payable), and annual 

tax income for the OASDI program expressed as a percent of GDP for both current law and 

assuming enactment of the eight Social Security provisions of the proposal. Showing the annual 

trust fund cash flows as a percent of GDP provides an additional perspective on these trust fund 

operations in relation to the total value of goods and services produced in the United States. The 

relationship between income and cost is similar when expressed as a percent of GDP to that 

when expressed as a percent of taxable payroll (Table 1).

Effects on Trust Fund Reserves and Unfunded Obligations

Table 1d provides estimates of the changes in trust fund reserves and unfunded obligations on an 

annual basis. Values in this table are expressed in present value dollars discounted to January 1, 

2018.

For the 75-year (long-range) period as a whole, the current-law unfunded obligation of $13.2

trillion is reduced to $2.2 trillion in present value. This change of $11.0 trillion results from:

• A $15.3 trillion increase in revenue (column 2), from taxing all earnings above the 

higher of the current-law taxable maximum or $250,000, and applying a separate 6.2 

percent tax on investment income as in the ACA, minus

• A $4.4 trillion increase in cost (column 3), primarily from the special minimum PIA 

provision, calculating the COLA using the CPI-E rather than the CPI-W, extending 

student benefits up to attainment of age 22, and increasing current and future benefits 

by increasing the first PIA bend point by 15 percent ultimately.
Page 12 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders and the Honorable Peter DeFazio

We hope these estimates are helpful. Please let me know if we may provide further assistance.

Sincerely,

 Stephen C. Goss, ASA, MAAA

Chief Actuary

Enclosures
Table A—Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of the “Social Security 

Expansion Act” (116th Congress), Introduced by Sen. Sanders and Rep. DeFazio 

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

for 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

Section 2) Increase the first PIA bend point above the currentlaw level for workers becomingly newly eligible for retirement 

or disability benefits or dying after 2024. Phase in an ultimate 

15-percent increase in the first bend point by raising it 1 

percent above the current-law level for workers becoming 

newly eligible or dying in 2025, 2 percent for workers 

becoming newly eligible or dying in 2026, and so on, until it 

reaches 15 percent for workers becoming newly eligible or 

dying in 2039 and later.............................................................. -0.37 -0.70

Section 3) Use the increase in the Consumer Price Index for 

the Elderly (CPI-E) rather than the increase in the Consumer 

Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers

(CPI-W) to calculate the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), 

effective for December 2021 and later COLAs. We estimate 

this new computation would increase the annual COLA by 

about 0.2 percentage point, on average ..................................... -0.39 -0.54

Section 4) Beginning in 2020, reconfigure the special 

minimum PIA for workers becoming newly eligible or dying 

after 2019: (a) A year of coverage (YOC) is defined as a year 

in which 4 quarters of coverage are earned. (b) For those 

becoming newly eligible or dying in 2020 with 30 or more 

YOCs, set the minimum PIA equal to 125 percent of the 2019

Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) monthly 

poverty level. For those with under 30 YOCs, the PIA per 

YOC in excess of 10 YOCs is 125 percent of this poverty level 

calculation, divided by 20. (c) For workers becoming newly 

eligible or dying after 2020, index the initial PIA per YOC by 

growth in the national average wage index (AWI). The 30 and 

10 YOC levels apply for all workers, including those who die 

or become disabled under age 62............................................... -0.12 -0.17

Section 5) Beginning in 2020, continue benefits for children of 

disabled or deceased workers until they attain age 22 if the 

child is in high school, college or vocational school................. -0.06 -0.06

Sections 6 and 7) Apply the combined OASDI payroll tax rate 

on earnings above $250,000 starting in 2020. Tax all earnings 

once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $250,000. Do 

not provide benefit credit for additional earnings taxed............ 2.18 2.46
Table A—Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of the “Social Security 

Expansion Act” (116th Congress), Introduced by Sen. Sanders and Rep. DeFazio 

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

for 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

Section 8) Apply a separate 6.2 percent tax on investment 

income as defined in the Affordable Care Act (ACA), with 

unindexed thresholds as in the ACA ($200,000 single filer, 

$250,000 for married filing joint), starting in 2020. Proceeds 

go to the OASDI Trust Funds.................................................... 0.94 1.16

Section 9) Beginning in 2020, establish a new Social Security 

Trust Fund by combining the reserves of the separate OASI 

and DI Trust Funds and managing all future operations of the 

program on a combined basis .................................................... 3 3

Total for all provisions, including interaction.................... 2.22 2.20

\

1

Under current law, the estimated long-range OASDI actuarial balance is -2.84 percent of taxable payroll. 2

Under current law, the estimated 75th year annual balance is -4.32 percent of taxable payroll. 3

Negligible; that is, between -0.005 and 0.005 percent of taxable payroll. 

Notes: All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2018 OASDI Trustees Report. 

 Estimates of individual provisions appear on a stand-alone basis relative to current law, unless otherwise stated.

Social Security Administration

Office of the Chief Actuary

February 13, 2019
Proposal Proposal Proposal

Year Scheduled to Scheduled to Payable to

Attain Benefit Minimum Current Law Current Law Current Law

Age 65 (Wage-Indexed (CPI-Indexed COLA5 Formula6 Benefit7 Total8 Scheduled Payable Payable

2018 Dollars) 2018 Dollars)

 

2018 744 744 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100 100

2030 695 838 0.6 1.8 40.7 44.2 144 144 144

2050 700 1,074 0.6 8.5 32.1 44.2 144 182 182

2080 703 1,521 0.6 8.5 32.1 44.2 144 194 171

 

2018 744 744 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100 100

2030 695 838 0.6 1.8 0.0 2.4 102 102 102

2050 700 1,074 0.6 8.5 0.0 9.2 109 138 138

2080 703 1,521 0.6 8.5 0.0 9.2 109 147 130

 

2018 744 744 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100 100

2030 695 838 0.6 1.8 0.0 2.4 102 102 102

2050 700 1,074 0.6 8.5 0.0 9.2 109 138 138

2080 703 1,521 0.6 8.5 0.0 9.2 109 147 130

2018 974 974 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100 100

2030 910 1,098 0.6 1.4 8.0 10.1 110 110 110

2050 916 1,405 0.6 7.0 2.3 10.1 110 139 139

2080 920 1,990 0.6 7.0 2.3 10.2 110 148 131

2018 974 974 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100 100

2030 910 1,098 0.6 1.4 8.0 10.1 110 110 110

2050 916 1,405 0.6 7.0 2.3 10.1 110 139 139

2080 920 1,990 0.6 7.0 2.3 10.2 110 148 131

2018 974 974 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100 100

2030 910 1,098 0.6 1.4 0.0 2.0 102 102 102

2050 916 1,405 0.6 7.0 0.0 7.7 108 136 136

2080 920 1,990 0.6 7.0 0.0 7.7 108 145 128

2018 1,605 1,605 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100 100

2030 1,500 1,810 0.6 0.9 0.0 1.4 101 101 101

2050 1,510 2,317 0.6 4.3 0.0 4.9 105 133 133

2080 1,517 3,281 0.6 4.3 0.0 4.9 105 141 125

2018 1,605 1,605 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100 100

2030 1,500 1,810 0.6 0.9 0.0 1.4 101 101 101

2050 1,510 2,317 0.6 4.3 0.0 4.9 105 133 133

2080 1,517 3,281 0.6 4.3 0.0 4.9 105 141 125

2018 2,127 2,127 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100 100

2030 1,986 2,396 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.2 101 101 101

2050 1,999 3,068 0.6 3.2 0.0 3.8 104 131 131

2080 2,009 4,345 0.6 3.2 0.0 3.8 104 140 123

2018 2,590 2,590 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100 100

2030 2,430 2,932 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.1 101 101 101

2050 2,445 3,751 0.6 2.6 0.0 3.2 103 131 131

2080 2,449 5,296 0.6 2.6 0.0 3.2 103 139 123

2018 2,590 2,590 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100 100

2030 2,430 2,932 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.1 101 101 101

2050 2,445 3,751 0.6 2.6 0.0 3.2 103 131 131

2080 2,449 5,296 0.6 2.6 0.0 3.2 103 139 123

1

2 Projected percent of new retired worker awards in 2050 with current-law AIME levels and years of covered earnings closest to AIME levels and years of covered earnings shown.

3

4

5

6

7

8

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration February 13, 2019

 High-AIME ($83,031 for 20181) 44-Year Scaled Earner (19.1% of Retirees2)

 Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($128,400 for 20181) 43-Year Steady Earner (7.1% of Retirees2)

 Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($256,800 for 20181) 43-Year Steady Earner3

Average of highest 35 years of taxable earnings wage indexed to 2018. For the Maximum and Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME workers, we show one times and two times the 2018 

taxable maximum, respectively.

If all earnings were considered, unlimited by annual taxable maximums, then about 1.5 percent of all retirees would have an AIME closer to Twice Maximum-Current-Law than MaximumCurrent-Law.

After the trust fund reserves deplete under current law continuing taxes are expected to be enough to pay about three fourths of scheduled benefits.

Starting Dec 2021, compute the COLA using a CPI-E, producing 0.2% higher annual COLAs on average.

Increase the current-law first PIA bend point by 1% for beneficiaries becoming eligible in 2025, 2% for 2026, ..., and 15% for those becoming newly eligible in 2039 and later.

For beneficiaries becoming newly eligible in 2020, establish a minimum PIA level such that a worker with 30/10 years of coverage would receive a minimum PIA for 2020 of at least 

125%/0% of the monthly poverty level for 2019. For beneficiaries newly eligible after 2020, the minimum PIA level for their initial year of eligibility would be adjusted for average wage 

growth. The minimum PIA is increased after the year of initial eligibility by the COLA. The Minimum Benefit Percent change is calculated after all other provisions, so that the Proposed 

Benefit Amount is at least the Minimum Benefit, where applicable.

This analysis reflects only the provisions of the proposal identified in the table and described in the footnotes above.

 Medium-AIME ($51,894 for 20181) 30-Year Scaled Earner (2.2% of Retirees2)

Monthly Benefits4

(Percent change) (Percents)

 Very-Low-AIME ($12,974 for 20181) 30-Year Scaled Earner (10.1% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($12,974 for 20181) 20-Year Scaled Earner (5.3% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($12,974 for 20181) 14-Year Scaled Earner (4.1% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($23,353 for 20181) 44-Year Scaled Earner (17.1% of Retirees2

)

 Low-AIME ($23,353 for 20181) 30-Year Scaled Earner (4.4% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($23,353 for 20181) 20-Year Scaled Earner (1.7% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($51,894 for 20181) 44-Year Scaled Earner (28.6% of Retirees2

)

Table B1. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Beginning Benefit Receipt at age 65 

"Social Security Expansion Act" (116th Congress), Introduced by Sen. Sanders and Rep. DeFazio

Benefit Ratios

Scheduled Benefit Level Percent Change at age 65

Current Law Scheduled
Year 

Attain

Age 65 Age 65 Age 75 Age 85 Age 95

2018 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 144.2 147.0 149.9 152.8

2050 144.2 147.0 149.9 152.8

2080 144.2 147.0 149.9 152.8

2018 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 102.4 104.5 106.5 108.6

2050 109.2 111.3 113.5 115.7

2080 109.2 111.3 113.5 115.7

2018 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 102.4 104.5 106.5 108.6

2050 109.2 111.3 113.5 115.7

2080 109.2 111.3 113.5 115.7

2018 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 110.1 112.3 114.5 116.8

2050 110.1 112.3 114.5 116.8

2080 110.2 112.3 114.5 116.8

2018 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 110.1 112.3 114.5 116.8

2050 110.1 112.3 114.5 116.8

2080 110.2 112.3 114.5 116.8

2018 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 102.0 104.0 106.1 108.1

2050 107.7 109.8 111.9 114.1

2080 107.7 109.8 111.9 114.1

2018 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 101.4 103.4 105.5 107.6

2050 104.9 106.9 109.0 111.2

2080 104.9 106.9 109.0 111.2

2018 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 101.4 103.4 105.5 107.6

2050 104.9 106.9 109.0 111.2

2080 104.9 106.9 109.0 111.2

2018 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 101.2 103.2 105.3 107.3

2050 103.8 105.9 108.0 110.1

2080 103.8 105.9 108.0 110.1

2018 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 101.1 103.1 105.1 107.2

2050 103.2 105.3 107.3 109.5

2080 103.2 105.3 107.3 109.5

2018 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 101.1 103.1 105.1 107.2

2050 103.2 105.3 107.3 109.5

2080 103.2 105.3 107.3 109.5

1

2

3

Note: 

-

-

-

- This analysis reflects only the provisions of the proposal identified in the table and described above.

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration February 13, 2019

Starting Dec 2021, compute the COLA using the CPI-E, producing 0.2% higher annual COLAs on average.

Increase the current-law first PIA bend point by 1% for beneficiaries becoming eligible in 2025, 2% for 2026, ..., and 15% for those becoming newly eligible in 2039 and later.

For beneficiaries becoming newly eligible in 2020, establish a minimum PIA level such that a worker with 30/10 years of coverage would receive a minimum PIA for 2020 of at least 

125%/0% of the monthly poverty level for 2019. For beneficiaries newly eligible after 2020, the minimum PIA level for their initial year of eligibility would be adjusted for average 

wage growth. The minimum PIA is increased after the year of initial eligibility by the COLA.

If all earnings were considered, unlimited by annual taxable maximums, then about 1.5 percent of all retirees would have an AIME closer to Twice Maximum-Current-Law than 

Maximum-Current-Law.

 Very-Low-AIME ($12,974 for 20181) 14-Year Scaled Earner (4.1% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($23,353 for 20181) 44-Year Scaled Earner (17.1% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($23,353 for 20181) 30-Year Scaled Earner (4.4% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($23,353 for 20181) 20-Year Scaled Earner (1.7% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($51,894 for 20181) 44-Year Scaled Earner (28.6% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($51,894 for 20181) 30-Year Scaled Earner (2.2% of Retirees2)

 High-AIME ($83,031 for 20181) 44-Year Scaled Earner (19.1% of Retirees2)

 Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($128,400 for 20181) 43-Year Steady Earner (7.1% of Retirees2)

 Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($256,800 for 20181) 43-Year Steady Earner3

Average of highest 35 years of taxable earnings wage indexed to 2018. For the Maximum and Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME workers, we show one times and two times the 

2018 taxable maximum, respectively.

Projected percent of new retired worker awards in 2050 with current-law AIME levels and years of covered earnings closest to AIME levels and years of covered earnings shown.

 Very-Low-AIME ($12,974 for 20181) 20-Year Scaled Earner (5.3% of Retirees2)

Table B2. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Beginning Benefit Receipt at age 65 

"Social Security Expansion Act" (116th Congress), Introduced by Sen. Sanders and Rep. DeFazio

Proposal Scheduled Benefit as Percent of Current Law Scheduled

(Percent)

 Very-Low-AIME ($12,974 for 20181) 30-Year Scaled Earner (10.1% of Retirees2)
Category Dually Entitled2 WEP3 Foreign Born All Others4

Very-Low-AIME ($10,101 for 20071

):

30-Year Scaled Earner (9.3% of Retirees) 47 6 11 40

20-Year Scaled Earner (5.8% of Retirees) 38 16 21 31

14-Year Scaled Earner (5.3% of Retirees) 22 21 45 20

Low-AIME ($18,182 for 20071):

44-Year Scaled Earner (13.1% of Retirees) 15 2 6 78

30-Year Scaled Earner (5.9% of Retirees) 16 9 18 59

20-Year Scaled Earner (3.1% of Retirees) 10 23 35 37

Medium-AIME ($40,405 for 20071):

44-Year Scaled Earner (23.0% of Retirees) 1 1 5 93

30-Year Scaled Earner (4.4% of Retirees) 1 8 26 67

High-AIME ($64,649 for 20071):

44-Year Scaled Earner (20.5% of Retirees) 0 0 6 93

Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($82,224 for 20071):

Steady Earner (9.4% of Retirees) 0 0 7 93

1

2

3 Covered by pension from government employment and are subject to the windfall elimination provision (WEP).

4 Neither foreign born, subject to WEP, or dually entitled.

March 21, 2017

Note 3: The sum of the percentages for each category (sum across rows) could be greater than 100 percent because some beneficiaries can be classified in more than one of 

the following groups: dually entitled, WEP, and foreign born. 

Average of highest 35 years of taxable earnings wage indexed to 2007.

Under current law, entitled to an additional benefit based on someone else's account. The dually entitled percent is a minimum value. Some beneficiaries that are not 

currently dually entitled could become dually entitled in the future.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration

Table B3. Important Characteristics of Hypothetical Workers in 2007

Percent of Beneficiaries Within Each Category That Are:

Note 1: Table B3 displays the percentages of these newly-entitled retired workers in 2007 that are closest to each of the illustrative examples.

Note 2: The percents in each category are based on tabulations of a 10-percent sample of newly entitled retired-worker beneficiaries in 2007 (169,725 records). We can be 95 

percent confident that each of the values shown above is within 1.4 percentage points of the value we would find using 100 percent of the retirees in 2007.
Proposal Scheduled Payroll Taxes

Earnings Taxable Percent of Current Law

in Year (Wage-Indexed (CPI-Indexed Maximum2

2018 Dollars) 2018 Dollars) (Percents)

2018 134 134 0.0 100

2030 134 162 0.0 100

2050 134 206 0.0 100

2080 134 290 0.0 100

2018 241 241 0.0 100

2030 241 291 0.0 100

2050 241 370 0.0 100

2080 241 522 0.0 100

2018 536 536 0.0 100

2030 536 647 0.0 100

2050 536 823 0.0 100

2080 536 1,160 0.0 100

2018 858 858 0.0 100

2030 858 1,035 0.0 100

2050 858 1,316 0.0 100

2080 858 1,856 0.0 100

2018 1,327 1,327 0.0 100

2030 1,327 1,601 0.0 100

2050 1,327 2,036 0.0 100

2080 1,327 2,870 0.0 100

2018 1,327 1,327 0.0 100

2030 1,327 1,601 80.1 180

2050 1,327 2,036 100.0 200

2080 1,327 2,870 100.0 200

1

2

This analysis reflects only the provisions of the proposal identified in the table and described in the footnotes above.

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.

Percentile among all workers with any covered earnings in 2018 (including earnings both above and below the current-law maximum earnings level). We include those who will die or 

become disabled before reaching retirement age, and those who will not earn enough in their career to become fully insured for retired worker benefits. Thus, these percentiles are not 

directly comparable to the percentages in the B tables, which are based on lifetime earnings, and include only those who survive and become eligible for retirement benefits.

Apply the OASDI payroll tax rate on earnings above $250,000 starting in 2020, and tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $250,000.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration February 13, 2019

99th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($256,800 in 2018) Twice Current-Law Maximum Earnings Level

Table T. Changes in Payroll Tax Contributions (Employee + Employer) for Workers with OASDI Covered Earnings in the Year

"Social Security Expansion Act" (116th Congress), Introduced by Sen. Sanders and Rep. DeFazio

Scheduled Payroll Taxes Percent Change 

Current Law Scheduled

Monthly Total Payroll Taxes

(Percent change) 

26th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($12,974 in 2018)

40th Percentile Earner1

 in Year ($23,353 in 2018)

69th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($51,894 in 2018)

85th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($83,031 in 2018)

94th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($128,400 in 2018) Current-Law Maximum Earnings Level
Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

"Social Security Expansion Act" (116th Congress), Introduced by Sen. Sanders and Rep. DeFazio

Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2018 13.81 12.64 -1.17 288 0.00 0.00 0.00

2019 13.95 12.87 -1.08 272 0.00 0.00 0.00

2020 14.19 14.98 0.79 255 0.07 2.09 2.02

2021 14.34 15.15 0.81 252 0.07 2.23 2.16

2022 14.53 15.23 0.70 249 0.10 2.28 2.19

2023 14.75 15.30 0.56 245 0.13 2.34 2.21

2024 14.96 15.39 0.43 240 0.16 2.40 2.24

2025 15.18 15.46 0.29 235 0.19 2.45 2.26

2026 15.39 15.65 0.26 230 0.23 2.51 2.28

2027 15.63 15.72 0.10 226 0.26 2.57 2.31

2028 15.88 15.82 -0.07 221 0.30 2.64 2.35

2029 16.13 15.91 -0.22 217 0.33 2.72 2.38

2030 16.35 16.00 -0.36 213 0.37 2.79 2.42

2031 16.56 16.09 -0.48 209 0.40 2.87 2.47

2032 16.76 16.18 -0.58 205 0.44 2.95 2.51

2033 16.93 16.27 -0.66 202 0.48 3.04 2.56

2034 17.08 16.37 -0.71 199 0.51 3.12 2.61

2035 17.20 16.45 -0.75 196 0.55 3.20 2.64

2036 17.31 16.47 -0.84 193 0.59 3.21 2.62

2037 17.41 16.49 -0.92 189 0.63 3.22 2.60

2038 17.49 16.51 -0.98 185 0.66 3.24 2.57

2039 17.53 16.52 -1.02 181 0.70 3.25 2.54

2040 17.57 16.53 -1.04 178 0.74 3.26 2.52

2041 17.59 16.54 -1.04 174 0.78 3.27 2.49

2042 17.59 16.55 -1.04 170 0.81 3.28 2.47

2043 17.58 16.56 -1.02 166 0.85 3.29 2.44

2044 17.58 16.57 -1.01 162 0.88 3.30 2.42

2045 17.58 16.58 -1.00 158 0.92 3.31 2.40

2046 17.58 16.59 -0.99 154 0.95 3.32 2.37

2047 17.58 16.60 -0.98 150 0.98 3.33 2.35

2048 17.58 16.61 -0.97 146 1.01 3.34 2.34

2049 17.59 16.62 -0.97 142 1.03 3.35 2.32

2050 17.60 16.63 -0.97 138 1.06 3.36 2.30

2051 17.61 16.64 -0.98 134 1.08 3.37 2.29

2052 17.64 16.65 -0.99 130 1.10 3.38 2.27

2053 17.67 16.65 -1.01 126 1.12 3.38 2.26

2054 17.70 16.66 -1.04 121 1.14 3.39 2.25

2055 17.75 16.68 -1.08 116 1.16 3.40 2.24

2056 17.80 16.69 -1.12 111 1.18 3.41 2.23

2057 17.86 16.70 -1.16 106 1.20 3.41 2.22

2058 17.92 16.71 -1.22 101 1.21 3.42 2.21

2059 17.99 16.72 -1.27 95 1.23 3.43 2.20

2060 18.05 16.73 -1.32 89 1.24 3.43 2.19

2061 18.11 16.74 -1.37 82 1.26 3.44 2.19

2062 18.18 16.75 -1.43 76 1.27 3.45 2.18

2063 18.24 16.76 -1.48 69 1.28 3.45 2.18

2064 18.31 16.77 -1.53 61 1.29 3.46 2.17

2065 18.37 16.78 -1.59 54 1.30 3.47 2.17

2066 18.44 16.79 -1.64 46 1.31 3.47 2.16

2067 18.50 16.80 -1.70 37 1.32 3.48 2.16

2068 18.57 16.81 -1.76 29 1.33 3.49 2.16

2069 18.64 16.82 -1.82 20 1.34 3.49 2.15

2070 18.71 16.83 -1.88 10 1.35 3.50 2.15

2071 18.77 16.84 -1.93 1 1.35 3.50 2.15

2072 18.83 16.85 -1.98 ---- 1.36 3.51 2.15

2073 18.88 16.86 -2.02 ---- 1.36 3.51 2.15

2074 18.92 16.87 -2.06 ---- 1.37 3.52 2.15

2075 18.96 16.88 -2.09 ---- 1.37 3.52 2.15

2076 18.99 16.88 -2.11 ---- 1.38 3.53 2.15

2077 19.01 16.89 -2.12 ---- 1.38 3.53 2.15

2078 19.01 16.89 -2.12 ---- 1.38 3.54 2.15

2079 19.00 16.90 -2.10 ---- 1.39 3.54 2.16

2080 18.99 16.90 -2.09 ---- 1.39 3.55 2.16

2081 18.98 16.91 -2.07 ---- 1.39 3.55 2.17

2082 18.96 16.91 -2.05 ---- 1.39 3.56 2.17

2083 18.94 16.91 -2.03 ---- 1.39 3.56 2.17

2084 18.93 16.92 -2.01 ---- 1.39 3.57 2.18

2085 18.92 16.92 -2.00 ---- 1.39 3.57 2.18

2086 18.92 16.93 -1.99 ---- 1.39 3.58 2.19

2087 18.92 16.93 -1.99 ---- 1.39 3.58 2.19

2088 18.94 16.94 -2.00 ---- 1.39 3.58 2.19

2089 18.96 16.94 -2.02 ---- 1.39 3.59 2.19

2090 18.99 16.95 -2.05 ---- 1.39 3.59 2.20

2091 19.03 16.95 -2.08 ---- 1.40 3.60 2.20

2092 19.08 16.96 -2.12 ---- 1.40 3.60 2.20

2093 19.13 16.97 -2.16 ---- 1.40 3.60 2.20

Summarized Rates: OASDI Summarized Rates: OASDI

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

2018 - 2092 17.59% 16.96% -0.62% 2071 0.90% 3.12% 2.22%

Office of the Chief Actuary

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration 1

Under current law the year of combined Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034.

Year of reserve 

depletion1

February 13, 2019

Proposal Change from Current Law

Expressed as a percentage of current-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of current-law

taxable payroll
Table 1a - General Fund Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Reserves, and Theoretical OASDI Reserves

"Social Security Expansion Act" (116th Congress), Introduced by Sen. Sanders and Rep. DeFazio

Percentage

of Payroll

Annual

Amounts

Accumulated as of 

End of Year

Gross Domestic 

Product

Without General

Fund Transfers

With Plan General

Fund Transfers

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,808.6 20,018.8 2,808.6 2,808.6

2019 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,730.2 20,372.8 2,730.2 2,730.2

2020 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,789.7 20,761.3 2,639.0 2,639.0

2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,852.0 21,143.5 2,536.5 2,536.5

2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,906.9 21,520.6 2,421.0 2,421.0

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,951.8 21,889.8 2,290.2 2,290.2

2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,987.3 22,247.7 2,144.3 2,144.3

2025 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,011.7 22,564.0 1,982.3 1,982.3

2026 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,034.5 22,843.8 1,813.8 1,813.8

2027 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,043.8 23,088.8 1,627.7 1,627.7

2028 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,039.4 23,261.7 1,423.5 1,423.5

2029 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,022.0 23,339.1 1,202.6 1,202.6

2030 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,993.1 23,329.3 967.1 967.1

2031 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,954.2 23,230.3 719.2 719.2

2032 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,907.5 23,048.1 461.5 461.5

2033 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,854.9 22,820.9 196.4 196.4

2034 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,798.3 22,590.1 -74.2 -74.2

2035 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,739.0 22,363.5 -348.2 -348.2

2036 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,673.4 22,135.9 -624.3 -624.3

2037 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,602.0 21,912.2 -901.6 -901.6

2038 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,526.8 21,693.9 -1,178.6 -1,178.6

2039 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,449.7 21,482.3 -1,453.2 -1,453.2

2040 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,371.8 21,271.2 -1,724.5 -1,724.5

2041 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,294.1 21,065.0 -1,991.5 -1,991.5

2042 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,217.8 20,868.9 -2,253.3 -2,253.3

2043 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,143.4 20,676.2 -2,509.6 -2,509.6

2044 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,070.8 20,486.7 -2,760.5 -2,760.5

2045 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,999.8 20,298.6 -3,006.5 -3,006.5

2046 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,930.1 20,110.8 -3,247.8 -3,247.8

2047 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,861.6 19,925.6 -3,484.9 -3,484.9

2048 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,794.2 19,744.9 -3,717.9 -3,717.9

2049 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,727.8 19,562.2 -3,947.2 -3,947.2

2050 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,661.9 19,380.3 -4,173.4 -4,173.4

2051 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,596.3 19,201.3 -4,396.7 -4,396.7

2052 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,530.3 19,022.2 -4,617.8 -4,617.8

2053 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,463.6 18,842.5 -4,837.3 -4,837.3

2054 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,395.7 18,661.7 -5,055.6 -5,055.6

2055 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,326.1 18,479.7 -5,273.3 -5,273.3

2056 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,254.5 18,298.9 -5,490.8 -5,490.8

2057 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,180.5 18,117.7 -5,708.5 -5,708.5

2058 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,104.0 17,935.7 -5,926.7 -5,926.7

2059 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,025.1 17,754.6 -6,145.3 -6,145.3

2060 0.0 0.0 0.0 943.7 17,574.0 -6,364.3 -6,364.3

2061 0.0 0.0 0.0 859.9 17,394.0 -6,583.8 -6,583.8

2062 0.0 0.0 0.0 773.7 17,215.1 -6,803.9 -6,803.9

2063 0.0 0.0 0.0 685.3 17,037.6 -7,024.4 -7,024.4

2064 0.0 0.0 0.0 594.6 16,861.5 -7,245.4 -7,245.4

2065 0.0 0.0 0.0 501.8 16,687.4 -7,466.8 -7,466.8

2066 0.0 0.0 0.0 406.6 16,515.3 -7,688.9 -7,688.9

2067 0.0 0.0 0.0 309.2 16,345.5 -7,911.6 -7,911.6

2068 0.0 0.0 0.0 209.6 16,178.3 -8,135.0 -8,135.0

2069 0.0 0.0 0.0 107.8 16,013.1 -8,359.1 -8,359.1

2070 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 15,850.3 -8,583.9 -8,583.9

2071 0.0 0.0 0.0 -102.1 15,690.6 -8,809.1 -8,809.1

2072 0.0 0.0 0.0 -209.3 15,534.1 -9,034.3 -9,034.3

2073 0.0 0.0 0.0 -317.7 15,380.4 -9,259.4 -9,259.4

2074 0.0 0.0 0.0 -426.8 15,229.4 -9,483.9 -9,483.9

2075 0.0 0.0 0.0 -536.3 15,080.9 -9,707.7 -9,707.7

2076 0.0 0.0 0.0 -645.7 14,934.6 -9,930.3 -9,930.3

2077 0.0 0.0 0.0 -754.5 14,790.9 -10,151.0 -10,151.0

2078 0.0 0.0 0.0 -862.1 14,649.3 -10,369.5 -10,369.5

2079 0.0 0.0 0.0 -968.0 14,509.6 -10,585.3 -10,585.3

2080 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,071.9 14,371.5 -10,798.2 -10,798.2

2081 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,173.8 14,234.9 -11,008.1 -11,008.1

2082 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,273.5 14,099.1 -11,215.0 -11,215.0

2083 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,371.3 13,964.2 -11,418.8 -11,418.8

2084 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,467.1 13,830.0 -11,619.9 -11,619.9

2085 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,561.3 13,696.0 -11,818.5 -11,818.5

2086 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,654.2 13,562.2 -12,014.8 -12,014.8

2087 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,746.2 13,428.9 -12,209.2 -12,209.2

2088 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,837.7 13,295.7 -12,402.2 -12,402.2

2089 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,929.0 13,162.8 -12,594.0 -12,594.0

2090 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,020.5 13,030.4 -12,785.0 -12,785.0

2091 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,112.5 12,898.2 -12,975.4 -12,975.4

2092 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,205.3 12,766.5 -13,165.6 -13,165.6

2093 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,298.8 12,635.4 -13,355.5 -13,355.5

Total 2018-2092 0.0

Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.7%.

Office of the Chief Actuary 1

 Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption Social Security Administration

 that the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury. February 13, 2019

Calendar

Year

Proposal General Fund Transfers Present Value in Billions as of 1-1-2018

Proposal

Total OASDI

Trust Fund

Reserves 

at End of Year

Theoretical Social Security1

with Borrowing Authority

Present Value in Billions as of 1-1- 2018 Net OASDI Trust Fund Reserves at End of Year
Table 1b - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1

 (Present Value Dollars)

"Social Security Expansion Act" (116th Congress), Introduced by Sen. Sanders and Rep. DeFazio

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End Of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2019 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2020 0.0 150.8 150.8 -150.8 150.8 0.0 0.0

2021 0.0 164.8 164.8 -315.5 168.9 0.0 0.0

2022 0.0 170.3 170.3 -485.8 179.1 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 175.8 175.8 -661.6 189.5 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 181.4 181.4 -842.9 200.7 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 186.5 186.5 -1,029.4 211.9 0.0 0.0

2026 0.0 191.2 191.2 -1,220.6 223.8 0.0 0.0

2027 0.0 195.4 195.4 -1,416.1 236.1 0.0 0.0

2028 0.0 199.8 199.8 -1,615.9 252.1 0.0 0.0

2029 0.0 203.5 203.5 -1,819.4 268.9 0.0 0.0

2030 0.0 206.6 206.6 -2,026.0 286.6 0.0 0.0

2031 0.0 209.1 209.1 -2,235.0 305.3 0.0 0.0

2032 0.0 211.0 211.0 -2,446.0 324.9 0.0 0.0

2033 0.0 212.5 212.5 -2,658.5 337.1 0.0 0.0

2034 0.0 214.1 214.1 -2,872.6 349.6 0.0 0.0

2035 0.0 214.6 214.6 -3,087.2 361.0 0.0 0.0

2036 0.0 210.4 210.4 -3,297.7 367.8 0.0 0.0

2037 0.0 206.0 206.0 -3,503.6 374.0 0.0 0.0

2038 0.0 201.7 201.7 -3,705.3 380.3 0.0 0.0

2039 0.0 197.5 197.5 -3,902.9 386.4 0.0 0.0

2040 0.0 193.4 193.4 -4,096.2 392.3 0.0 0.0

2041 0.0 189.3 189.3 -4,285.6 398.1 0.0 0.0

2042 0.0 185.5 185.5 -4,471.1 404.0 0.0 0.0

2043 0.0 181.9 181.9 -4,653.0 409.7 0.0 0.0

2044 0.0 178.4 178.4 -4,831.4 415.5 0.0 0.0

2045 0.0 174.9 174.9 -5,006.3 421.2 0.0 0.0

2046 0.0 171.6 171.6 -5,177.9 426.8 0.0 0.0

2047 0.0 168.5 168.5 -5,346.5 432.4 0.0 0.0

2048 0.0 165.7 165.7 -5,512.2 438.2 0.0 0.0

2049 0.0 162.9 162.9 -5,675.1 443.8 0.0 0.0

2050 0.0 160.2 160.2 -5,835.3 449.5 0.0 0.0

2051 0.0 157.7 157.7 -5,993.0 455.1 0.0 0.0

2052 0.0 155.2 155.2 -6,148.1 460.6 0.0 0.0

2053 0.0 152.7 152.7 -6,300.9 466.1 0.0 0.0

2054 0.0 150.4 150.4 -6,451.3 471.5 0.0 0.0

2055 0.0 148.1 148.1 -6,599.4 476.9 0.0 0.0

2056 0.0 145.9 145.9 -6,745.3 482.3 0.0 0.0

2057 0.0 143.8 143.8 -6,889.1 487.5 0.0 0.0

2058 0.0 141.7 141.7 -7,030.7 492.8 0.0 0.0

2059 0.0 139.6 139.6 -7,170.3 497.9 0.0 0.0

2060 0.0 137.6 137.6 -7,308.0 503.1 0.0 0.0

2061 0.0 135.7 135.7 -7,443.7 508.2 0.0 0.0

2062 0.0 133.9 133.9 -7,577.6 513.2 0.0 0.0

2063 0.0 132.1 132.1 -7,709.7 518.3 0.0 0.0

2064 0.0 130.3 130.3 -7,840.0 523.3 0.0 0.0

2065 0.0 128.6 128.6 -7,968.6 528.2 0.0 0.0

2066 0.0 126.9 126.9 -8,095.6 533.1 0.0 0.0

2067 0.0 125.3 125.3 -8,220.9 537.9 0.0 0.0

2068 0.0 123.8 123.8 -8,344.6 542.7 0.0 0.0

2069 0.0 122.3 122.3 -8,466.9 547.5 0.0 0.0

2070 0.0 120.8 120.8 -8,587.7 552.3 0.0 0.0

2071 0.0 119.3 119.3 -8,707.0 557.0 0.0 0.0

2072 0.0 118.0 118.0 -8,825.0 561.7 0.0 0.0

2073 0.0 116.7 116.7 -8,941.7 566.5 0.0 0.0

2074 0.0 115.5 115.5 -9,057.2 571.2 0.0 0.0

2075 0.0 114.3 114.3 -9,171.4 575.9 0.0 0.0

2076 0.0 113.1 113.1 -9,284.5 580.5 0.0 0.0

2077 0.0 112.0 112.0 -9,396.5 585.2 0.0 0.0

2078 0.0 110.9 110.9 -9,507.4 589.8 0.0 0.0

2079 0.0 109.9 109.9 -9,617.4 594.5 0.0 0.0

2080 0.0 109.0 109.0 -9,726.3 599.1 0.0 0.0

2081 0.0 108.0 108.0 -9,834.3 603.7 0.0 0.0

2082 0.0 107.1 107.1 -9,941.4 608.3 0.0 0.0

2083 0.0 106.2 106.2 -10,047.6 612.8 0.0 0.0

2084 0.0 105.3 105.3 -10,152.8 617.3 0.0 0.0

2085 0.0 104.3 104.3 -10,257.2 621.8 0.0 0.0

2086 0.0 103.4 103.4 -10,360.6 626.1 0.0 0.0

2087 0.0 102.4 102.4 -10,463.0 630.5 0.0 0.0

2088 0.0 101.5 101.5 -10,564.5 634.7 0.0 0.0

2089 0.0 100.5 100.5 -10,665.0 638.9 0.0 0.0

2090 0.0 99.5 99.5 -10,764.5 643.0 0.0 0.0

2091 0.0 98.4 98.4 -10,862.9 647.1 0.0 0.0

2092 0.0 97.4 97.4 -10,960.3 651.0 0.0 0.0

Total 2018-2092 0.0 10,960.3 10,960.3

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.7%.

Note: Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would Office of the Chief Actuary

 nonetheless be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. Social Security Administration 1

 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table.

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2018

February 13, 2019
Table 1b.n - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1

 (Nominal Dollars)

"Social Security Expansion Act" (116th Congress), Introduced by Sen. Sanders and Rep. DeFazio

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2019 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2020 0.0 161.7 161.7 -164.2 164.2 0.0 0.0

2021 0.0 181.8 181.8 -353.6 189.4 0.0 0.0

2022 0.0 193.3 193.3 -560.2 206.6 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 205.2 205.2 -785.4 225.2 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 218.0 218.0 -1,031.2 245.8 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 231.0 231.0 -1,298.9 267.7 0.0 0.0

2026 0.0 244.5 244.5 -1,590.9 292.0 0.0 0.0

2027 0.0 258.2 258.2 -1,909.4 318.5 0.0 0.0

2028 0.0 273.6 273.6 -2,262.4 353.0 0.0 0.0

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.

Note: Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would Office of the Chief Actuary

 nonetheless be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. Social Security Administration 1

 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table.

Billions of Nominal Dollars

February 13, 2019
Table 1c - Current Law and Proposal Cost, Expenditures, and Income: As Percent of Gross Domestic Product

"Social Security Expansion Act" (116th Congress), Introduced by Sen. Sanders and Rep. DeFazio

Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

2018 4.94 4.94 4.52 4.94 4.94 4.52

2019 4.99 4.99 4.61 4.99 4.99 4.61

2020 5.07 5.07 4.62 5.09 5.09 5.37

2021 5.14 5.14 4.65 5.16 5.16 5.45

2022 5.22 5.22 4.68 5.25 5.25 5.51

2023 5.30 5.30 4.70 5.35 5.35 5.55

2024 5.39 5.39 4.73 5.44 5.44 5.60

2025 5.47 5.47 4.75 5.54 5.54 5.64

2026 5.55 5.55 4.81 5.63 5.63 5.73

2027 5.63 5.63 4.82 5.72 5.72 5.76

2028 5.70 5.70 4.82 5.81 5.81 5.79

2029 5.77 5.77 4.82 5.89 5.89 5.81

2030 5.83 5.83 4.82 5.97 5.97 5.84

2031 5.89 5.89 4.81 6.03 6.03 5.86

2032 5.94 5.94 4.81 6.10 6.10 5.89

2033 5.98 5.98 4.81 6.15 6.15 5.91

2034 6.01 5.67 4.81 6.20 6.20 5.94

2035 6.03 4.80 4.80 6.23 6.23 5.96

2036 6.05 4.80 4.80 6.27 6.27 5.96

2037 6.07 4.80 4.80 6.29 6.29 5.96

2038 6.07 4.79 4.79 6.31 6.31 5.96

2039 6.07 4.79 4.79 6.33 6.33 5.96

2040 6.07 4.78 4.78 6.33 6.33 5.96

2041 6.05 4.78 4.78 6.33 6.33 5.96

2042 6.04 4.78 4.78 6.33 6.33 5.96

2043 6.02 4.77 4.77 6.32 6.32 5.96

2044 6.00 4.77 4.77 6.32 6.32 5.95

2045 5.98 4.76 4.76 6.31 6.31 5.95

2046 5.97 4.76 4.76 6.31 6.31 5.95

2047 5.95 4.76 4.76 6.31 6.31 5.95

2048 5.94 4.76 4.76 6.30 6.30 5.95

2049 5.93 4.75 4.75 6.30 6.30 5.96

2050 5.93 4.75 4.75 6.30 6.30 5.96

2051 5.92 4.75 4.75 6.31 6.31 5.96

2052 5.92 4.75 4.75 6.31 6.31 5.96

2053 5.92 4.75 4.75 6.32 6.32 5.96

2054 5.92 4.75 4.75 6.33 6.33 5.96

2055 5.93 4.74 4.74 6.34 6.34 5.96

2056 5.94 4.74 4.74 6.36 6.36 5.96

2057 5.95 4.74 4.74 6.38 6.38 5.96

2058 5.96 4.74 4.74 6.40 6.40 5.96

2059 5.98 4.74 4.74 6.41 6.41 5.96

2060 5.99 4.74 4.74 6.43 6.43 5.96

2061 6.01 4.74 4.74 6.45 6.45 5.96

2062 6.02 4.74 4.74 6.47 6.47 5.96

2063 6.03 4.73 4.73 6.49 6.49 5.96

2064 6.05 4.73 4.73 6.51 6.51 5.96

2065 6.06 4.73 4.73 6.52 6.52 5.96

2066 6.08 4.73 4.73 6.54 6.54 5.96

2067 6.09 4.72 4.72 6.56 6.56 5.96

2068 6.11 4.72 4.72 6.58 6.58 5.95

2069 6.12 4.72 4.72 6.60 6.60 5.95

2070 6.14 4.71 4.71 6.61 6.61 5.95

2071 6.15 4.71 4.71 6.63 6.00 5.95

2072 6.16 4.71 4.71 6.64 5.95 5.95

2073 6.17 4.70 4.70 6.65 5.94 5.94

2074 6.18 4.70 4.70 6.66 5.94 5.94

2075 6.19 4.70 4.70 6.67 5.94 5.94

2076 6.19 4.69 4.69 6.67 5.93 5.93

2077 6.19 4.69 4.69 6.67 5.93 5.93

2078 6.18 4.68 4.68 6.67 5.92 5.92

2079 6.17 4.68 4.68 6.66 5.92 5.92

2080 6.16 4.67 4.67 6.65 5.92 5.92

2081 6.15 4.67 4.67 6.63 5.91 5.91

2082 6.14 4.66 4.66 6.62 5.91 5.91

2083 6.12 4.66 4.66 6.61 5.90 5.90

2084 6.11 4.65 4.65 6.60 5.90 5.90

2085 6.10 4.65 4.65 6.59 5.89 5.89

2086 6.10 4.64 4.64 6.58 5.89 5.89

2087 6.09 4.64 4.64 6.58 5.89 5.89

2088 6.09 4.64 4.64 6.58 5.88 5.88

2089 6.10 4.63 4.63 6.58 5.88 5.88

2090 6.10 4.63 4.63 6.59 5.88 5.88

2091 6.11 4.63 4.63 6.60 5.87 5.87

2092 6.12 4.63 4.63 6.61 5.87 5.87

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Current Law OASDI Proposal OASDI

Calendar

Year

February 13, 2019
Table 1d - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Reserves / Unfunded Obligation

"Social Security Expansion Act" (116th Congress), Introduced by Sen. Sanders and Rep. DeFazio

Year

Current Law OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Total Change

Through

End of Year

Proposal OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) = cumulative sum(4) (6) = (1)+(5)

2018 2,808.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,808.6

2019 2,730.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,730.2

2020 2,639.0 155.7 4.9 150.8 150.8 2,789.7

2021 2,536.5 169.7 5.0 164.8 315.5 2,852.0

2022 2,421.0 177.7 7.4 170.3 485.8 2,906.9

2023 2,290.2 185.9 10.1 175.8 661.6 2,951.8

2024 2,144.3 194.3 12.9 181.4 842.9 2,987.3

2025 1,982.3 202.3 15.9 186.5 1,029.4 3,011.7

2026 1,813.8 210.3 19.0 191.2 1,220.6 3,034.5

2027 1,627.7 217.6 22.2 195.4 1,416.1 3,043.8

2028 1,423.5 225.2 25.4 199.8 1,615.9 3,039.4

2029 1,202.6 232.0 28.5 203.5 1,819.4 3,022.0

2030 967.1 238.0 31.4 206.6 2,026.0 2,993.1

2031 719.2 243.3 34.3 209.1 2,235.0 2,954.2

2032 461.5 247.9 36.9 211.0 2,446.0 2,907.5

2033 196.4 252.0 39.5 212.5 2,658.5 2,854.9

2034 -74.2 256.2 42.1 214.1 2,872.6 2,798.3

2035 -348.2 259.3 44.7 214.6 3,087.2 2,739.0

2036 -624.3 257.6 47.2 210.4 3,297.7 2,673.4

2037 -901.6 255.7 49.7 206.0 3,503.6 2,602.0

2038 -1,178.6 253.8 52.1 201.7 3,705.3 2,526.8

2039 -1,453.2 252.0 54.5 197.5 3,902.9 2,449.7

2040 -1,724.5 250.2 56.8 193.4 4,096.2 2,371.8

2041 -1,991.5 248.3 59.0 189.3 4,285.6 2,294.1

2042 -2,253.3 246.6 61.1 185.5 4,471.1 2,217.8

2043 -2,509.6 245.0 63.1 181.9 4,653.0 2,143.4

2044 -2,760.5 243.4 65.0 178.4 4,831.4 2,070.8

2045 -3,006.5 241.7 66.8 174.9 5,006.3 1,999.8

2046 -3,247.8 240.1 68.4 171.6 5,177.9 1,930.1

2047 -3,484.9 238.4 69.9 168.5 5,346.5 1,861.6

2048 -3,717.9 236.9 71.2 165.7 5,512.2 1,794.2

2049 -3,947.2 235.2 72.3 162.9 5,675.1 1,727.8

2050 -4,173.4 233.6 73.3 160.2 5,835.3 1,661.9

2051 -4,396.7 231.9 74.2 157.7 5,993.0 1,596.3

2052 -4,617.8 230.1 75.0 155.2 6,148.1 1,530.3

2053 -4,837.3 228.4 75.6 152.7 6,300.9 1,463.6

2054 -5,055.6 226.6 76.2 150.4 6,451.3 1,395.7

2055 -5,273.3 224.8 76.7 148.1 6,599.4 1,326.1

2056 -5,490.8 223.0 77.1 145.9 6,745.3 1,254.5

2057 -5,708.5 221.1 77.4 143.8 6,889.1 1,180.5

2058 -5,926.7 219.3 77.6 141.7 7,030.7 1,104.0

2059 -6,145.3 217.4 77.7 139.6 7,170.3 1,025.1

2060 -6,364.3 215.4 77.8 137.6 7,308.0 943.7

2061 -6,583.8 213.5 77.8 135.7 7,443.7 859.9

2062 -6,803.9 211.6 77.7 133.9 7,577.6 773.7

2063 -7,024.4 209.7 77.6 132.1 7,709.7 685.3

2064 -7,245.4 207.7 77.4 130.3 7,840.0 594.6

2065 -7,466.8 205.8 77.1 128.6 7,968.6 501.8

2066 -7,688.9 203.8 76.9 126.9 8,095.6 406.6

2067 -7,911.6 201.9 76.5 125.3 8,220.9 309.2

2068 -8,135.0 200.0 76.2 123.8 8,344.6 209.6

2069 -8,359.1 198.1 75.8 122.3 8,466.9 107.8

2070 -8,583.9 196.2 75.4 120.8 8,587.7 3.8

2071 -8,809.1 194.3 75.0 119.3 8,707.0 -102.1

2072 -9,034.3 192.5 74.5 118.0 8,825.0 -209.3

2073 -9,259.4 190.7 74.0 116.7 8,941.7 -317.7

2074 -9,483.9 189.0 73.5 115.5 9,057.2 -426.8

2075 -9,707.7 187.2 73.0 114.3 9,171.4 -536.3

2076 -9,930.3 185.5 72.4 113.1 9,284.5 -645.7

2077 -10,151.0 183.8 71.8 112.0 9,396.5 -754.5

2078 -10,369.5 182.0 71.1 110.9 9,507.4 -862.1

2079 -10,585.3 180.4 70.4 109.9 9,617.4 -968.0

2080 -10,798.2 178.7 69.7 109.0 9,726.3 -1,071.9

2081 -11,008.1 177.1 69.0 108.0 9,834.3 -1,173.8

2082 -11,215.0 175.4 68.3 107.1 9,941.4 -1,273.5

2083 -11,418.8 173.8 67.6 106.2 10,047.6 -1,371.3

2084 -11,619.9 172.2 66.9 105.3 10,152.8 -1,467.1

2085 -11,818.5 170.6 66.2 104.3 10,257.2 -1,561.3

2086 -12,014.8 168.9 65.5 103.4 10,360.6 -1,654.2

2087 -12,209.2 167.3 64.9 102.4 10,463.0 -1,746.2

2088 -12,402.2 165.7 64.3 101.5 10,564.5 -1,837.7

2089 -12,594.0 164.1 63.6 100.5 10,665.0 -1,929.0

2090 -12,785.0 162.5 63.1 99.5 10,764.5 -2,020.5

2091 -12,975.4 160.9 62.5 98.4 10,862.9 -2,112.5

2092 -13,165.6 159.3 61.9 97.4 10,960.3 -2,205.3

Total 2018-2092 15,314.1 4,353.8 10,960.3

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.7%. February 13, 2019

(Billions of Dollars, Present Value on 1-1-2018)