SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE, MD 21235-0001

SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

July 13, 2016

The Honorable Reid Ribble

United States House of Representatives

Washington, D.C. 20515

Dear Representative Ribble:

I am writing in response to your request for estimates of the financial effects on Social Security 

of H.R. 5747, the S.O.S. Act of 2016, which you introduced today. The estimates provided here 

reflect the intermediate assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report. This Bill (hereafter referred to 

as the proposal) includes seven provisions with direct effects on the Social Security Trust Funds. 

Note that the estimates provided here do not reflect the estimated effects of the Bipartisan 

Budget Act (BBA) of 2015, which was enacted after completion of the 2015 Trustees Report. 

Including the effects of the BBA would provide a small further improvement in the projected 

actuarial status of the Social Security Trust Funds. We have enjoyed working closely with 

Deborah Weigel of your staff in developing this proposal to meet your goals. The estimates and 

analysis provided here reflect the combined effort of many in the Office of the Chief Actuary, 

but most particularly Karen Glenn, Christopher Chaplain, Daniel Nickerson, Kyle Burkhalter, 

Michael Clingman, Anna Kirjusina, Katie Sutton, and Tiffany Bosley.

The enclosed tables provide estimates of the effects of the seven provisions on the cost, income, 

and combined trust fund reserves for the Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI)

program, as well as estimated effects on retired worker benefit levels for selected hypothetical 

workers. In addition, tables 1b and 1b.n provide estimates of the federal budget implications of 

the seven provisions. Assuming enactment of the proposal, we estimate that the combined OASI 

and DI Trust Funds would be fully solvent throughout the 75-year projection period, under the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report. The proposal, however, would not meet 

the definition of “sustainable solvency” beyond the 75th year for the foreseeable future, because 

projected combined trust fund reserves would be declining as a percentage of the annual program 

cost at the end of the 75-year long-range period. 

While we did not produce these estimates under the intermediate assumptions of the recently 

released 2016 Trustees Report, it is highly likely that the financial impacts would be the same or 

better, because the actuarial deficit is lower and annual balances are generally higher under the 

2016 baseline projections.

Because the OASI and DI Trust Funds are separate legal entities, estimates for the combined 

trust funds are consistent with an intent to reallocate the total payroll tax rate as needed to 

equalize the years of reserve depletion and the actuarial status of the two separate trust funds. 
Page 2 – The Honorable Reid Ribble

Such reallocations would be needed under this proposal beyond the temporary reallocation 

enacted in the BBA of 2015.

The proposal includes seven basic provisions with direct effects on the OASDI program. The 

following list identifies each provision with the corresponding section number in the Bill:

Sections 2-3. Increase the OASDI taxable maximum such that 90 percent of covered earnings 

are taxable in 2022 and later. Phase in to 90 percent taxable ratio from 2017 through 2022.

Apply benefit credit on additional earnings taxed by calculating a “surplus AIME” based on 

additional earnings taxed with a 2.5 percent formula factor.

Section 3. Reduce the 15 percent PIA formula factor to 5 percent for workers who die or 

become newly eligible for retirement or disability benefits in 2021 or later. Phase in this 

provision from 2017 through 2021.

Section 4. After the normal retirement age (NRA) reaches 67 for those attaining 62 in 2022, 

increase it by 2 months per year until the NRA reaches 69 for those attaining 62 in 2034. 

Thereafter, index the NRA to longevity (about 1 month every 2 years). Also increase the age 

up to which delayed retirement credits (DRCs) may be earned on the same schedule. 

Section 5. Use the chain-weighted version of the Consumer Price Index for All Urban 

Consumers (C-CPI-U) to calculate the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), beginning with the 

December 2017 COLA. We estimate this new computation will reduce the annual COLA by 

about 0.3 percentage point, on average.

Section 6. Increase the special minimum PIA for workers who die or become newly eligible 

for retirement or disability benefits in 2017 or later. Retired workers with 20 years of 

coverage (YOCs), years earning 4 quarters of coverage, would receive 100 percent of the 

Federal Census aged poverty level, and this percentage would increase or decrease based on 

the number of YOCs. Disabled worker YOC requirement is scaled to years before disability, 

but must have at least five YOCs to potentially receive the minimum benefit. Phase in to the 

full minimum PIA for both retired and disabled workers from 2017 through 2023. The 

poverty level for this purpose would be average-wage-indexed for years after 2018.

Section 7. For all beneficiaries in years 2017 and later, provide a PIA increase after 20 

years of benefit eligibility equal to the PIA of a hypothetical worker with the same birth year 

who earns the average wage index (AWI) every year through the year prior to initial benefit 

eligibility. Phase in at 1 percentage point per year for years 20 to 24 of eligibility to an 

ultimate 5 percent increase.

Section 8. For retired and disabled workers, reduce the maximum number of dropout years 

to 4 for newly eligible workers in 2017, to 3 for newly eligible workers in 2018, and to 2 for 

newly eligible workers in 2019 and later.

The balance of this letter provides a summary of the effects of the seven provisions on the 

actuarial status of the OASDI program, our understanding of the specifications and intent of each 
Page 3 – The Honorable Reid Ribble

of the seven provisions, and descriptions of our detailed financial estimates for trust fund 

operations, benefit levels, and implications for the federal budget. See the “Specification for 

Provisions of the Proposal” section of this letter for a detailed description of these seven 

provisions.

Summary of Effects of the Proposal on OASDI Actuarial Status

Figure 1 illustrates the estimated trust fund ratio under present law and assuming enactment of 

the proposal. The trust fund ratio is defined as the combined Old-Age and Survivors Insurance 

(OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund reserves expressed as a percent of annual 

program cost. Assuming enactment of the proposal, the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds 

would be fully solvent throughout the 75-year projection period, under the intermediate 

assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report. The proposal would not meet the definition of 

“sustainable solvency” beyond the 75th year for the foreseeable future, because projected 

combined trust fund reserves would be declining as a percentage of the annual program cost at 

the end of the long-range period. 

Note: Trust Fund Ratio for a given year is the ratio of reserves in the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds at the 

beginning of the year to the cost of the program for the year.

Under current law, 79 percent of scheduled benefits are projected to be payable on a timely basis 

in 2034 after depletion of the combined trust fund reserves, with the percentage payable 

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Trust Fund Ratio

Figure 1. Present Law and Proposal OASDI Trust Fund Reserves as Percent of 

Annual Cost: 2015 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Present Law Trust Fund Ratio

Proposal
Page 4 – The Honorable Reid Ribble

declining to 73 percent for 2089. Under the proposal, the OASDI program would be solvent with 

all scheduled benefits fully payable on time throughout the 75-year projection period.

Enactment of the seven provisions of the proposal would change the long-range OASDI actuarial 

deficit from 2.68 percent of taxable payroll under current law to a positive actuarial balance of 

0.03 percent of payroll under the proposal.

Figure 2 illustrates annual projected levels of cost, expenditures, and non-interest income as a 

percent of the current-law taxable payroll. The projected level of cost reflects the full cost of 

scheduled benefits under both current law and the proposal. Under the proposal, projected 

expenditures equal full scheduled benefits throughout the long-range period.

From 2015 through 2016, OASDI program cost under the proposal equals the cost under current 

law. The proposal cost is slightly higher than present law cost in 2017 and 2018. Starting in 

2019, OASDI program annual cost under the proposal becomes progressively lower than under 

current law. This difference increases rapidly early in the projection period, and then increases 

gradually, reaching about 3.3 percent of current-law payroll by 2089. Beginning in 2017, noninterest income under the proposal is projected to be higher than under current law, with the 

difference growing rapidly from 0.4 percent of current-law payroll for 2017 to 1.1 percent of 

current-law payroll for 2022, and then decreasing gradually to 0.9 percent of current-law payroll 

for 2089. The proposal improves the annual balance (non-interest income minus program cost) 

starting in 2017. The annual balance improves by 2.2 percent of payroll for 2034, with the 

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Percent of Present-Law Taxable Payroll

Figure 2. Proposal and Present Law Cost, Expenditures, and Non-Interest Income 

as Percent of Taxable Payroll: 2015 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Present Law Cost

Present Law Non-Interest Income

Present Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Non-Interest Income

Proposal Expenditures
Page 5 – The Honorable Reid Ribble

improvement increasing to 4.2 percent of payroll for 2089. However, under the proposal, the 

annual balance is still negative throughout the long-range period. The annual deficit decreases 

from 1.3 percent of payroll for 2015 to 0.2 percent of payroll for 2021, increases to 1.2 percent of 

payroll for 2033, decreases to less than 0.1 percent of payroll for 2054, and then generally 

increases through the end of the long-range period, ultimately reaching 0.5 percent of payroll for 

2089. Under current law, the projected annual deficit for 2089 is 4.7 percent of payroll.

It is also useful to consider the projected cost, expenditures, and income for the OASDI program 

expressed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Figure 3 illustrates these levels 

under both current law and the proposal.

Specification for Provisions of the Proposal

Sections 2-3. Increase the OASDI taxable maximum such that taxable 90 percent of covered 

earnings are taxable in 2022 and later.

The provision would increase the taxable maximum to $156,550 for 2017, $194,600 for 2018, 

$232,650 for 2019, $270,700 for 2020, $308,750 for 2021, and $346,800 for 2022. The taxable 

ratio would be kept at 90 percent for years after 2022. Benefit credit would be applied on 

additional earnings taxed. For the additional earnings taxed, a “surplus AIME” would be 

computed and a 2.5 percent PIA factor would be applied to the surplus AIME.

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Percent of GDP

Figure 3. Proposal and Present Law Cost, Expenditures, and Non-Interest Income 

as Percent of GDP: 2015 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Present Law Cost

Present Law Non-Interest Income

Present Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Non-Interest Income

Proposal Expenditures
Page 6 – The Honorable Reid Ribble

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.99 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2089) by 1.06 percent of payroll.

Section 3. Reduce the 15 percent PIA formula factor to 5 percent for workers who die or 

become newly eligible for retirement or disability benefits in 2021 or later. Phase in this 

provision from 2017 through 2021.

This provision would be phased in from 2017 through 2021. All OASDI benefit formula 

calculations would be affected by the change.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.30 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2089) by 0.45 percent of payroll.

Section 4. After the normal retirement age (NRA) reaches 67 for those attaining 62 in 2022, 

increase it by 2 months per year until the NRA reaches 69 for those attaining 62 in 2034. 

Thereafter, index the NRA to longevity (about 1 month every 2 years).

Under current law, the NRA will increase from age 66 by 2 months per year for individuals 

attaining age 62 in 2017 through 2022, reaching the NRA of 67 for those aged 62 in 2022 and 

later. This provision would first increase the NRA from 67 to 69 by 2034. Then, the provision 

would maintain a constant ratio of expected retirement years (life expectancy at NRA) to 

potential work years (NRA minus 20) after 2034. We estimate that this will result in an expected 

increase in the NRA of 1 month every 2 years. The maximum age for delayed retirement credits 

(DRCs) earned would increase at the same rate as the NRA; that is, it would be kept at three 

years past the NRA. This provision retains the earliest eligibility age for retired worker benefits 

at 62.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 1.01 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2089) by 2.21 percent of payroll.

Section 5. Use the chain-weighted version of the Consumer Price Index for All Urban 

Consumers (C-CPI-U) to calculate the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), beginning with the 

December 2017 COLA.

Under current law, the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) applied to Social Security 

benefits is calculated using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical 

Workers (CPI-W). We assume this change to the C-CPI-U would decrease the COLA by an 

average of 0.3 percentage point per year. This provision would apply to all OASDI benefits.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.54 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2089) by 0.76 percent of payroll.
Page 7 – The Honorable Reid Ribble

Section 6. Increase the special minimum PIA for workers who die or become newly eligible 

for retirement or disability benefits in 2017 or later.

For benefits based on the record of workers who die or become newly eligible for retirement or 

disability benefits in 2017 and 2018, this provision would set the minimum PIA at a specified 

percentage of the Federal Census aged poverty threshold for 2016 and 2017, respectively. For the 

minimum benefit determination as of year of new eligibility, the poverty level would be wageindexed for years after 2018. A year of coverage (YOC) is defined as a year with earnings equal 

to at least 4 quarters of coverage. Retired workers with 20 YOCs would receive 100 percent of 

the poverty level, phased down to no minimum benefit for those with 10 or fewer YOCs. The

percentage of poverty received would phase up linearly to 125 percent for a worker with 40 

YOCs. For 2017 through 2023, a phase-in factor of 0.4 + 0.1*(year – 2017) would be used, with 

full effect for eligibility years 2023 and later.

Disabled workers would need at least five YOCs to potentially receive the minimum benefit. The 

percentage of the poverty level received would be scaled based on the years the worker was not 

disabled. Specifically, for both disabled workers and deceased workers, the percentage of the 

poverty level that would be applicable would increase linearly, from 0 percent of poverty if the 

number of YOCs is 25 percent or less of the number of elapsed years (years from age 21 to age 

before disability or death), to 125 percent of poverty if the number of YOCs is 75 percent or 

more of the number of elapsed years. This provision would use the same 2017-2023 phase-in 

period for disabled workers as for retired workers.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.16 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2089) by 0.27 percent of payroll.

Section 7. For all beneficiaries in years 2017 and later, provide a PIA increase after 20 

years of benefit eligibility equal to the PIA of a hypothetical worker with the same birth year 

who earns the average wage index (AWI) in every year.

This PIA increase would apply for all benefits payable on the worker's record and would be 

reduced or increased by applicable actuarial reduction factors or delayed retirement credits. This 

provision would phase in at 1 percentage point per year for years 20 to 24 of eligibility to an 

ultimate 5 percent PIA increase. The benefit increase can apply to retired workers, disabled 

workers, and auxiliary beneficiaries with 20 or more years of benefit eligibility.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.15 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2089) by 0.21 percent of payroll.

Section 8. For retired and disabled workers, reduce the maximum number of dropout years 

to 4 for newly eligible workers in 2017, to 3 for newly eligible workers in 2018, and to 2 for 

newly eligible workers in 2019 and later.

Under current law, a retired worker’s PIA is generally based on the average of his or her 35 

highest indexed earnings years. This number of computation years equals the number of elapsed 
Page 8 – The Honorable Reid Ribble

years after age 21 to the year of benefit initial eligibility, less 5 dropout years. Disabled worker 

PIA calculations are based on the average of the number of years after age 21 up to the year 

before the waiting period begins, with the number of dropout years equal to one dropout year for 

every 5 full years that have elapsed after 21 (capped at 5 dropout years). The resulting number of 

years has to be at least 2 and no higher than 35. This provision would reduce the maximum 

number of dropout years to 4 for retired and disabled workers newly eligible in 2017, to 3 for 

workers newly eligible in 2018, and to 2 for workers newly eligible in 2019 and later. 

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.37 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2089) by 0.55 percent of payroll.

Detailed Financial Results for the Provisions of the Proposal

Summary Results by Provision

Table A provides estimates of the effects on the OASDI long-range actuarial balance for each of 

the seven provisions of the proposal separately and on a combined basis. The table also includes 

estimates of the effect of each provision on the annual balance (the difference between income 

rate and the cost rate, expressed as a percent of current-law taxable payroll) for the 75th

projection year, 2089. Interaction among individual provisions is reflected only in the total 

estimates for the combined provisions.

Benefit Illustrations

Tables B1 and B2 provide illustrative examples of the projected change in benefit levels under 

the five provisions that affect benefit levels for beneficiaries retiring at age 65 in future years at 

five selected earnings levels, with selected numbers of years of work. The “Maximum-AIME 

Steady Earner” is assumed to have earnings at ages 22 through 64 that equal the current-law 

taxable maximum level (equivalent to $118,500 for 2015). As a result, the provision to increase

the taxable maximum does not affect benefit levels illustrated in these tables. Table B3 provides 

additional important information on characteristics of retired workers represented by these 

illustrations.

Table B1 compares the initial benefit levels, assuming retirement at age 65 under the provisions 

of the proposal, to both scheduled and payable current-law benefit levels. Benefit amounts under 

the proposal are lower than those scheduled in current law, except for some of the very low 

hypothetical earners attaining 65 around 2030 with at least 20 years of earnings (due largely to 

the minimum benefit provision). The final two columns of this table show the level of scheduled

benefits under the proposal as a percentage of current-law scheduled and current-law payable 

benefits, respectively.

Table B2 compares the change in scheduled benefit levels at ages 65, 75, 85, and 95 under the 

proposal to scheduled benefits under current law, assuming retirement at age 65. Table B2 shows 

that projected scheduled benefits under the provisions of the proposal decrease in relation to 

current-law scheduled benefits between ages 65 and 75, because of the change in computing the 
Page 9 – The Honorable Reid Ribble

COLA, but increase at age 85 because of the uniform PIA increase after 20 years of benefit 

eligibility.

The hypothetical workers represented in these tables reflect average career-earnings patterns of 

workers who started receiving retirement benefits under the Social Security program in recent 

years. The tables subdivide workers with very low and low career-average earnings levels by 

their numbers of years of non-zero earnings.

Table B3 provides information helpful in interpreting the benefit illustrations in tables B1 and 

B2. Percentages in Table B3 are based on tabulations from a 10-percent sample of newly-entitled 

retired workers in 2007. Table B3 displays the percentages of these newly-entitled retired 

workers in 2007 that are closest to each of the illustrative examples and are:

1) “Dually Entitled”, meaning they received a higher spouse or widow(er) benefit based on 

the career earnings of their husband or wife,

2) “WEP” (Windfall Elimination Provision), meaning that they received a reduced benefit 

due to having a pension based on earnings that were not covered under the OASDI 

program (primarily certain government workers), and they had less than 30 years of 

substantial earnings that were taxable under the OASDI program,

3) “Foreign Born”, meaning that they entered the Social Security coverage area after birth 

(and generally after entering working ages), and

4) “All Others”, meaning they had none of the three characteristics listed above.

The extent to which retired-worker beneficiaries represented by each of the illustrative examples 

have any of the characteristics listed above (dually entitled, WEP, foreign born) is important 

because such individuals are less dependent on the OASDI benefit that relates to their own 

career-average earnings level.

Detailed Tables Containing Annual and Summary Projections

Enclosed with this letter are tables 1, 1a, 1b, 1b.n, 1c, and 1d, which provide annual and 

summary projections for the proposal.

Trust Fund Operations

Table 1 provides projections of the financial operations of the OASDI program under the 

proposal and shows that the combined OASDI Trust Funds would be fully solvent throughout the 

75-year projection period. The OASDI program would not be solvent beyond the 75th year for 

the foreseeable future (sustainably solvent), because the OASDI trust fund ratio is projected to be 

decreasing by the end of the period, 2090. The table shows the annual cost and income rates, 

annual balances, and trust fund ratios (reserves as percent of annual program cost) for OASDI, as 

well as the change from current law in these cost rates, income rates, and annual balances. 

Included at the bottom of this table are summarized rates for the 75-year (long-range) period.
Page 10 – The Honorable Reid Ribble

The actuarial balance for the OASDI program over the 75-year projection period is improved by 

2.71 percent of taxable payroll, from an actuarial deficit of 2.68 percent of payroll under current 

law to a positive actuarial balance of 0.03 percent of taxable payroll.

Program Transfers and Trust Fund Reserves

Column 4 of Table 1a provides a projection of the level of reserves for the theoretical combined 

OASI and DI Trust Funds, assuming enactment of the seven Social Security provisions of the 

proposal. These trust fund reserve amounts are expressed in present value dollars discounted to 

January 1, 2015. The table indicates that the provisions include no new specified transfers of

general revenue to the trust funds. For purpose of comparison, the OASDI Trust Fund reserves, 

expressed in present value dollars, are also shown for the current-law Social Security program 

both without and with the added proposal general fund transfers (zero in this case) in columns 6 

and 7.

Note that negative values in columns 4, 6, and 7 represent the “unfunded obligation” for the 

program through the year. The unfunded obligation is the present value of the shortfall of 

revenue needed to pay full scheduled benefits on a timely basis from the date of trust fund 

reserve depletion through the end of the indicated year. Gross Domestic Product (GDP),

expressed in present value dollars, is shown in column 5 for comparison with other values in the 

table.

Effect of the Social Security Provisions on the Federal Budget

Table 1b shows the projected effect, in present value discounted dollars, on the federal budget 

(unified-budget and on-budget) cash flows and balances, assuming enactment of the seven Social 

Security provisions of the proposal. Table 1b.n provides the estimated nominal dollar effect of 

enactment of the proposal on annual budget balances for years 2015 through 2025. All values in 

these tables represent the amount of change from the level projected under current law. In 

addition, changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits, not payable under 

the law after depletion of trust fund reserves, would still be paid using revenue provided from the 

General Fund of the Treasury. The reader should be cautioned that this presumption of payment 

of benefits beyond the resources of the trust funds is prohibited under current law and is also 

inconsistent with all past experience under the Social Security program.

Column 1 of Table 1b shows the added proposal general fund transfers (zero for this proposal).

Column 2 shows the net changes in OASDI cash flow from all provisions of the proposal.

We expect the net effect of the proposal on unified budget cash flow (column 3) to be positive in 

years 2017 and later, reflecting savings to the long-range actuarial balance from sections 2-5 and 

8 of the proposal.

Column 4 of Table 1b indicates that the effect of implementing the proposal is a reduction of the 

federal debt held by the public, reaching about $11.3 trillion in present value at the end of the 75-

year projection period. Column 5 provides the projected effect of the proposal on the annual 

unified budget balances, including both the cash flow effect in column 3 and the additional 
Page 11 – The Honorable Reid Ribble

interest on the accumulated debt in column 4. Columns 6 and 7 indicate that the provisions of 

this proposal would have no expected direct effects on the on-budget cash flow, or on the total 

federal debt, in the future.

It is important to note that we base these estimates on the intermediate assumptions of the 2015 

Trustees Report, so these estimates are not consistent with estimates made by the Office of 

Management and Budget or the Congressional Budget Office based on their assumptions. In 

particular, all present values are discounted using trust fund yield assumptions under the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report.

Annual Trust Fund Operations as a Percent of GDP

Table 1c provides annual cost, annual expenditures (amount that would be payable), and annual 

tax income for the OASDI program expressed as a percentage of GDP for both current law and 

assuming enactment of the seven Social Security provisions of the proposal. Showing the annual 

trust fund cash flows as a percent of GDP provides an additional perspective on these trust fund 

operations in relation to the total value of goods and services produced in the United States. The 

relationship between income and cost is similar when expressed as a percent of GDP to that 

when expressed as a percent of taxable payroll (Table 1).

Effects on Trust Fund Reserves and Unfunded Obligations

Table 1d provides estimates of the changes in trust fund reserves. Values in this table are 

expressed in present value dollars discounted to January 1, 2015.

For the 75-year (long-range) period as a whole, the current-law unfunded obligation of $10.7

trillion is replaced by a positive trust fund reserve of $0.6 trillion in present value assuming 

enactment of the proposal. This change of $11.3 trillion results from:

• A $3.8 trillion net increase in revenue (column 2), primarily from additional payroll 

tax revenue, minus

• A $7.5 trillion net decrease in cost (column 3), primarily from increasing the NRA, 

calculating the COLA using the C-CPI-U rather than the CPI-W, and decreasing future 

benefits through changes in the PIA formula.

We hope these estimates are helpful. Please let me know if we may provide further assistance.

Sincerely,

Stephen C. Goss, ASA, MAAA

Chief Actuary

Enclosures
Table A—Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of H.R. 5747, “S.O.S. Act 

of 2016”, Introduced by Representative Reid Ribble

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

in 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

Sections 2-3) Increase the OASDI taxable maximum such that 

90 percent of covered earnings are taxable in 2022 and later. 

Phase in to 90 percent taxable ratio from 2017-2022 with set 

taxable maximum values of $156,550 for 2017, $194,600 for 

2018, $232,650 for 2019, $270,700 for 2020, $308,750 for 

2021, and $346,800 for 2022. Apply benefit credit on 

additional earnings taxed. For additional earnings taxed, 

compute a “surplus AIME” and apply a 2.5% factor to this 

surplus AIME ................................................................................ 0.99 1.06

Section 3) Reduce the 15% PIA formula factor to 5 percent for 

workers who die or become newly eligible for retirement 

or disability benefits in 2021 or later, phased in from 2017 

to 2021 ........................................................................................... 0.30 0.45

Section 4) After the normal retirement age (NRA) reaches 67 

for those attaining 62 in 2022, increase it by 2 months per year 

until the NRA reaches 69 for those attaining 62 in 2034. 

Thereafter, increase the NRA in a manner that will keep the 

ratio of (life expectancy at NRA)/(NRA-20) constant. This will 

result in an expected increase in the NRA of 1 month every 2 

years. Also increase the age up to which delayed retirement 

credits may be earned, on the same schedule (3 years past the 

NRA). ............................................................................................ 1.01 2.21

Section 5) Starting December 2017, compute the COLA using 

a chain-weighted version of the consumer price index (C-CPIU). We estimate this new computation will reduce the annual 

COLA by about 0.3 percentage point, on average......................... 0.54 0.76

Section 6) Minimum PIA. For workers who die or become 

newly eligible for retirement or disability benefits in 2017 

and 2018, set minimum benefit at specified percentage of 

Federal Census aged poverty threshold for 2016 and 2017, 

respectively. Wage-index the poverty level for years after 

2018. Define a year of coverage (YOC) is a year with earnings 

equal to at least 4 quarters of coverage. Retired workers with 

20 years of coverage (YOC) or less would receive 100% of the 

poverty level, phased down to no minimum benefit for those 

with 10 or fewer YOCs. The percentage of poverty received 

would phase linearly up to 125% for a worker with 40 YOCs. 

For disabled workers, require at least 5 YOCs to potentially 

receive the minimum benefit. The percentage of poverty level 

received is scaled based on the years of potential work before 

becoming disabled ......................................................................... -0.16 -0.27
Table A—Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of H.R. 5747, “S.O.S. Act 

of 2016”, Introduced by Representative Reid Ribble

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

in 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

Section 7) Provide a PIA increase after 20 years of benefit 

eligibility equal to 5 percent of the PIA of a hypothetical 

worker with the same birth year who earns the average wage 

index each year. This increase would apply to the PIA on 

which a benefit is based and could be reduced or increased by 

applicable actuarial reduction factors or delayed retirement 

credits. Phase in at 1 percentage point per year for years 20-24 

of eligibility to an ultimate 5 percent increase. This benefit 

increase can apply to all beneficiaries with 20 or more years of 

benefit eligibility. Effective for all beneficiaries in 2017 and 

later ................................................................................................ -0.15 -0.21

Section 8) For retired and disabled workers, reduce the 

maximum number of dropout years to 4 for workers newly 

eligible in 2017, to 3 for workers newly eligible in 2018, and to 

2 for workers newly eligible in 2019 and later .............................. 0.37 0.55

Total for all provisions, including interaction .......................... 2.71 4.19

1

Under current law, the estimated long-range OASDI actuarial balance is -2.68 percent of taxable payroll. 2

Under current law, the estimated 75th year annual balance is -4.65 percent of taxable payroll.

Notes: All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2015 OASDI Trustees Report. 

 Estimates of individual provisions appear on a stand-alone basis relative to current law, unless otherwise stated.

Social Security Administration

Office of the Chief Actuary

July 13, 2016
Year 

Attain Longevity Reduced Benefit Minimum

Age 65 (Wage-Indexed (CPI-Indexed Index NRA4 COLA5 Formula6 Benefit7 Total Scheduled Payable

2015 Dollars) 2015 Dollars)

 

2015 709 709 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 644 809 -6.4 -0.9 -3.0 29.5 16.5 117 117

2050 643 1,022 -16.3 -0.9 -3.0 29.6 4.2 104 132

2080 646 1,431 -23.1 -0.9 -3.0 29.5 -4.3 96 130

 

2015 709 709 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 644 809 -6.4 -0.9 -3.0 15.1 3.6 104 104

2050 643 1,022 -16.3 -0.9 -3.0 15.2 -7.4 93 117

2080 646 1,431 -23.1 -0.9 -3.0 15.2 -14.9 85 115

 

2015 709 709 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 644 809 -6.4 -0.9 -3.0 0.0 -10.0 90 90

2050 643 1,022 -16.3 -0.9 -3.0 0.0 -19.6 80 102

2080 646 1,431 -23.1 -0.9 -3.0 0.0 -26.1 74 100

2015 927 927 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 842 1,058 -6.4 -0.9 -0.9 7.6 -1.1 99 99

2050 842 1,337 -16.3 -0.9 -0.9 7.7 -11.5 88 112

2080 846 1,873 -23.1 -0.9 -0.9 7.7 -18.7 81 110

2015 927 927 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 842 1,058 -6.4 -0.9 -4.2 0.2 -11.0 89 89

2050 842 1,337 -16.3 -0.9 -4.2 0.2 -20.4 80 101

2080 846 1,873 -23.1 -0.9 -4.2 0.2 -26.8 73 99

2015 927 927 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 842 1,058 -6.4 -0.9 -4.2 0.0 -11.1 89 89

2050 842 1,337 -16.3 -0.9 -4.2 0.0 -20.5 79 101

2080 846 1,873 -23.1 -0.9 -4.2 0.0 -27.0 73 99

2015 1,528 1,528 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 1,388 1,744 -6.4 -0.9 -1.2 0.0 -8.4 92 92

2050 1,388 2,204 -16.3 -0.9 -1.2 0.0 -18.1 82 104

2080 1,394 3,086 -23.1 -0.9 -1.2 0.0 -24.7 75 102

2015 1,528 1,528 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 1,388 1,744 -6.4 -0.9 -5.6 0.0 -12.5 88 88

2050 1,388 2,204 -16.3 -0.9 -5.6 0.0 -21.8 78 99

2080 1,394 3,086 -23.1 -0.9 -5.6 0.0 -28.1 72 97

2015 2,025 2,025 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 1,839 2,310 -6.4 -0.9 -4.9 0.0 -11.7 88 88

2050 1,838 2,920 -16.3 -0.9 -4.9 0.0 -21.1 79 100

2080 1,846 4,088 -23.1 -0.9 -4.9 0.0 -27.5 72 98

2015 2,452 2,452 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 2,249 2,826 -6.4 -0.9 -16.0 0.0 -22.1 78 78

2050 2,248 3,570 -16.3 -0.9 -16.0 0.0 -30.3 70 88

2080 2,251 4,985 -23.1 -0.9 -15.8 0.0 -35.8 64 87

1 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2015.

2 Projected percent of new retired worker awards in 2050 closest to AIME levels and years of work.

3 After the trust fund reserves deplete under present law continuing taxes are expected to be enough to pay about three fourths of scheduled benefits.

4

5

6

7

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report.

Table B1. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Beginning Benefit Receipt at age 65 

H.R. 5747, “S.O.S. Act of 2016”, Introduced by Representative Reid Ribble

Scheduled Benefit Level Percent Change at age 65

Present Law Scheduled Proposal Scheduled Benefit

(Percent change) (Percents)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,955 for 20151) 30-Year Scaled Earner (8.8% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,955 for 20151

) 20-Year Scaled Earner (4.8% of Retirees2)

Monthly Benefits3 Percent of Present Law:

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,955 for 20151) 14-Year Scaled Earner (4.5% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($47,820 for 20151) 44-Year Scaled Earner (29.4% of Retirees2

)

 Medium-AIME ($47,820 for 20151) 30-Year Scaled Earner (2.4% of Retirees2

)

 High-AIME ($76,512 for 20151) 44-Year Scaled Earner (21.4% of Retirees2)

 Maximum-AIME ($118,500 for 20151) 43-Year Steady Earner (5.9% of Retirees2)

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration July 13, 2016

 Low-AIME ($21,519 for 20151

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (16.0% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($21,519 for 20151) 30-Year Scaled Earner (4.6% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($21,519 for 20151) 20-Year Scaled Earner (2.2% of Retirees2)

After NRA reaches 67 in 2022, increase 2 months per year until NRA reaches 69 in 2034, then increase 1 month every 2 years.

Starting Dec 2017, compute the COLA using the chain-weighted C-CPI-U, producing 0.3% lower annual COLAs on average.

For newly eligibles, reduce 15% PIA factor to 5% phasing in from 2017-2021. Reduce maximum drop out years from 5 to 2, phasing in from 2017-2019. 

Increase the PIA to a level such that a worker with 40/20/0 years of earning 4 quarters of coverage would receive an adjusted PIA equal to 125%/100%/0% of monthly poverty level in 2017. For 

years after 2018, wage-indexed to year of eligibility. This provision would apply for workers who die or become newly eligible for retirement or disability benefits in 2017 or later, phasing in 

from 2017-2023. The Minimum Benefit Percent Reduction is calculated after all other proposals, so that the Proposed Benefit Amount is at least the Minimum Benefit.
Year 

Attain

Age 65 Age 65 Age 75 Age 853 Age 953

2015 100.0 97.7 103.1 102.1

2030 116.5 113.2 117.4 115.8

2050 104.2 101.2 104.9 103.5

2080 95.7 93.0 96.4 95.1

2015 100.0 97.7 103.1 102.1

2030 103.6 100.6 105.1 103.9

2050 92.6 89.9 94.0 92.9

2080 85.1 82.6 86.4 85.4

2015 100.0 97.7 103.1 102.1

2030 90.0 87.4 92.3 91.5

2050 80.4 78.1 82.5 81.7

2080 73.9 71.8 75.8 75.1

2015 100.0 97.7 101.1 99.7

2030 98.9 96.1 99.0 97.5

2050 88.5 85.9 88.5 87.2

2080 81.3 78.9 81.3 80.1

2015 100.0 97.7 101.1 99.7

2030 89.0 86.5 89.7 88.5

2050 79.6 77.3 80.2 79.1

2080 73.2 71.0 73.7 72.7

2015 100.0 97.7 101.1 99.7

2030 88.9 86.3 89.5 88.3

2050 79.5 77.2 80.0 79.0

2080 73.0 70.9 73.5 72.6

2015 100.0 97.7 98.7 96.7

2030 91.6 89.0 89.9 88.1

2050 81.9 79.5 80.3 78.8

2080 75.3 73.1 73.8 72.4

2015 100.0 97.7 98.7 96.7

2030 87.5 85.0 86.0 84.4

2050 78.2 76.0 76.9 75.4

2080 71.9 69.8 70.7 69.3

2015 100.0 97.7 97.7 95.6

2030 88.3 85.7 85.9 84.0

2050 78.9 76.6 76.7 75.1

2080 72.5 70.4 70.5 69.0

2015 100.0 97.7 97.2 95.0

2030 77.9 75.7 75.6 74.0

2050 69.7 67.7 67.6 66.1

2080 64.2 62.3 62.3 60.9

1 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2015.

2 Projected percent of new retired worker awards in 2050 closest to AIME levels and years of work.

3 Increase the PIA by 5 percent of the average retired worker PIA beginning 20 years after eligibiity and phased in over five years starting in 2017.

Note: Starting Dec 2017, compute the COLA using the chain-weighted C-CPI-U, producing 0.3% lower annual COLAs on average.

Other Changes: 

-

-

-

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report.

Table B2. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Beginning Benefit Receipt at age 65 

H.R. 5747, “S.O.S. Act of 2016”, Introduced by Representative Reid Ribble

Proposal Scheduled Benefit as Percent of Present Law Scheduled

(Percent)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,955 for 20151) 30-Year Scaled Earner (8.8% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,955 for 20151) 20-Year Scaled Earner (4.8% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,955 for 20151) 14-Year Scaled Earner (4.5% of Retirees2)

Increase the PIA to a level such that a worker with 40/20/0 years of earning 4 quarters of coverage would receive an adjusted PIA equal to 125%/100%/0% of monthly poverty level in 

2017. For years after 2018, wage-indexed to year of eligibility. This provision would apply for workers who die or become newly eligible for retirement or disability benefits in 2017 or 

later, phasing in from 2017-2023.

 Low-AIME ($21,519 for 20151) 20-Year Scaled Earner (2.2% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($47,820 for 20151) 44-Year Scaled Earner (29.4% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($21,519 for 20151) 44-Year Scaled Earner (16.0% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($21,519 for 20151) 30-Year Scaled Earner (4.6% of Retirees2

)

For newly eligibles, reduce 15% PIA factor to 5% phasing in from 2017-2021. Reduce maximum drop out years from 5 to 2, phasing in from 2017-2019. 

 Medium-AIME ($47,820 for 20151) 30-Year Scaled Earner (2.4% of Retirees2)

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration July 13, 2016

 High-AIME ($76,512 for 20151) 44-Year Scaled Earner (21.4% of Retirees2)

 Maximum-AIME ($118,500 for 20151) 43-Year Steady Earner (5.9% of Retirees2)

After NRA reaches 67 in 2022, increase 2 months per year until NRA reaches 69 in 2034, then increase 1 month every 2 years.
Category Dually Entitled2 WEP3 Foreign Born All Others4

Very-Low-AIME ($11,955 for 20151

):

30-Year Scaled Earner (9.3% of Retirees) 47 6 11 40

20-Year Scaled Earner (5.8% of Retirees) 38 16 21 31

14-Year Scaled Earner (5.3% of Retirees) 22 21 45 20

Low-AIME ($21,519 for 20151):

44-Year Scaled Earner (13.1% of Retirees) 15 2 6 78

30-Year Scaled Earner (5.9% of Retirees) 16 9 18 59

20-Year Scaled Earner (3.1% of Retirees) 10 23 35 37

Medium-AIME ($47,820 for 20151

):

44-Year Scaled Earner (23.0% of Retirees) 1 1 5 93

30-Year Scaled Earner (4.4% of Retirees) 1 8 26 67

High-AIME ($76,512 for 20151):

44-Year Scaled Earner (20.5% of Retirees) 0 0 6 93

Maximum-AIME ($118,500 for 20151):

Steady Earner (9.4% of Retirees) 0 0 7 93

1 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2015.

2

3 Covered by pension from government employment and are subject to the windfall elimination provision (WEP).

4 Neither foreign born, subject to WEP, or dually entitled.

August 5, 2015

Note 3: The sum of the percentages for each category (sum across rows) could be greater than 100 percent because some beneficiaries can be classified in more than one of the 

following groups: dually entitled, WEP, and foreign born. 

Under current law, entitled to an additional benefit based on someone else's account. The dually entitled percent is a minimum value. Some beneficiaries that are not 

currently dually entitled could become dually entitled in the future.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration

Table B3. Important Characteristics of Hypothetical Workers in 2007

Percent of Beneficiaries Within Each Category That Are:

Note 1:Table B3 displays the percentages of these newly-entitled retired workers in 2007 that are closest to each of the illustrative examples.

Note 2: Percents based on tabulations of a 10-percent sample of newly entitled retired-worker beneficiaries in 2007 (169,725 records). We can be 95 percent confident that each 

of the values shown above is within 1.4 percentage points of the value we would find using 100 percent of the retirees in 2007.
Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

H.R. 5747 “S.O.S. Act of 2016”, Introduced by Representative Reid Ribble

Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2015 14.13 12.82 -1.31 308 0.00 0.00 0.00

2016 13.88 12.88 -1.00 298 0.00 0.00 0.00

2017 13.98 13.31 -0.67 278 0.08 0.40 0.31

2018 14.00 13.58 -0.42 265 0.03 0.64 0.61

2019 14.07 13.76 -0.31 255 -0.02 0.81 0.83

2020 14.14 13.88 -0.27 246 -0.08 0.91 1.00

2021 14.20 13.98 -0.22 239 -0.15 0.99 1.14

2022 14.31 14.07 -0.23 232 -0.21 1.06 1.27

2023 14.45 14.07 -0.38 226 -0.28 1.04 1.31

2024 14.62 14.07 -0.55 219 -0.34 1.01 1.35

2025 14.77 14.09 -0.68 212 -0.40 1.01 1.40

2026 14.89 14.10 -0.79 206 -0.47 1.01 1.48

2027 15.00 14.11 -0.89 200 -0.55 1.00 1.56

2028 15.10 14.13 -0.98 194 -0.65 1.00 1.64

2029 15.19 14.14 -1.05 188 -0.74 1.00 1.74

2030 15.25 14.15 -1.10 183 -0.85 0.99 1.84

2031 15.29 14.15 -1.14 178 -0.95 0.99 1.94

2032 15.32 14.16 -1.16 173 -1.05 0.98 2.03

2033 15.33 14.16 -1.16 168 -1.15 0.98 2.13

2034 15.31 14.17 -1.14 163 -1.24 0.98 2.22

2035 15.28 14.17 -1.11 158 -1.34 0.97 2.31

2036 15.25 14.17 -1.08 153 -1.43 0.97 2.40

2037 15.20 14.17 -1.03 149 -1.51 0.96 2.48

2038 15.14 14.17 -0.96 145 -1.59 0.96 2.55

2039 15.06 14.17 -0.89 141 -1.67 0.96 2.63

2040 14.97 14.17 -0.81 138 -1.74 0.95 2.69

2041 14.89 14.17 -0.72 135 -1.80 0.95 2.75

2042 14.80 14.17 -0.64 133 -1.86 0.95 2.81

2043 14.72 14.16 -0.55 131 -1.92 0.95 2.87

2044 14.64 14.16 -0.48 129 -1.98 0.94 2.92

2045 14.56 14.16 -0.41 129 -2.03 0.94 2.97

2046 14.49 14.16 -0.34 128 -2.08 0.94 3.02

2047 14.43 14.15 -0.27 128 -2.13 0.94 3.07

2048 14.37 14.15 -0.22 128 -2.18 0.94 3.11

2049 14.32 14.15 -0.16 129 -2.22 0.93 3.16

2050 14.27 14.15 -0.12 130 -2.27 0.93 3.20

2051 14.24 14.15 -0.09 131 -2.31 0.93 3.24

2052 14.22 14.15 -0.07 132 -2.35 0.93 3.28

2053 14.21 14.15 -0.05 134 -2.40 0.93 3.32

2054 14.20 14.16 -0.05 135 -2.44 0.93 3.37

2055 14.21 14.16 -0.05 137 -2.48 0.92 3.41

2056 14.21 14.16 -0.05 139 -2.53 0.92 3.45

2057 14.22 14.16 -0.06 140 -2.57 0.92 3.49

2058 14.24 14.16 -0.07 141 -2.61 0.92 3.53

2059 14.25 14.17 -0.09 143 -2.64 0.92 3.56

2060 14.28 14.17 -0.11 144 -2.68 0.92 3.59

2061 14.30 14.17 -0.13 145 -2.70 0.92 3.62

2062 14.33 14.18 -0.15 146 -2.73 0.92 3.64

2063 14.36 14.18 -0.18 147 -2.75 0.92 3.67

2064 14.39 14.18 -0.20 147 -2.78 0.91 3.69

2065 14.42 14.18 -0.23 148 -2.80 0.91 3.71

2066 14.46 14.19 -0.27 148 -2.82 0.91 3.73

2067 14.49 14.19 -0.30 148 -2.84 0.91 3.75

2068 14.53 14.20 -0.33 147 -2.86 0.91 3.77

2069 14.56 14.20 -0.36 147 -2.88 0.91 3.80

2070 14.59 14.20 -0.39 146 -2.91 0.91 3.82

2071 14.61 14.21 -0.41 145 -2.94 0.91 3.85

2072 14.63 14.21 -0.42 144 -2.96 0.91 3.88

2073 14.65 14.21 -0.44 143 -2.98 0.91 3.90

2074 14.66 14.21 -0.45 142 -3.00 0.91 3.91

2075 14.67 14.21 -0.46 141 -3.01 0.91 3.93

2076 14.67 14.21 -0.46 140 -3.03 0.91 3.94

2077 14.67 14.21 -0.46 139 -3.03 0.91 3.94

2078 14.67 14.21 -0.46 138 -3.04 0.91 3.95

2079 14.66 14.21 -0.44 137 -3.05 0.91 3.96

2080 14.64 14.22 -0.43 136 -3.07 0.91 3.98

2081 14.63 14.22 -0.41 135 -3.09 0.91 4.00

2082 14.62 14.22 -0.40 134 -3.11 0.91 4.02

2083 14.62 14.22 -0.40 134 -3.13 0.91 4.05

2084 14.62 14.22 -0.40 133 -3.16 0.91 4.07

2085 14.63 14.22 -0.41 132 -3.18 0.91 4.09

2086 14.63 14.22 -0.41 131 -3.21 0.91 4.13

2087 14.64 14.22 -0.42 130 -3.24 0.91 4.15

2088 14.67 14.23 -0.44 129 -3.26 0.91 4.17

2089 14.70 14.23 -0.47 127 -3.28 0.91 4.19

2090 14.73 14.23 -0.50 126 -3.29 0.91 4.19

Summarized Rates: OASDI Summarized Rates: OASDI

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

2015 - 2089 14.74% 14.77% 0.03% N/A -1.81% 0.90% 2.71%

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration 1

Under present law the year of combined Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034.

Change from Present Law

Year of reserve 

depletion1

July 13, 2016

Office of the Chief Actuary

Proposal

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll
Table 1a - General Fund Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Reserves, and Theoretical OASDI Reserves

H.R. 5747, “S.O.S. Act of 2016”, Introduced by Representative Reid Ribble

Percentage

of Payroll

Annual

Amounts

Accumulated as of 

End of Year

Gross Domestic 

Product

Without General

Fund Transfers

With Plan General

Fund Transfers

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,707.3 17,864.2 2,707.3 2,707.3

2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,643.2 18,295.3 2,643.2 2,643.2

2017 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,598.9 18,734.7 2,578.0 2,578.0

2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,570.3 19,132.0 2,507.4 2,507.4

2019 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,549.2 19,486.1 2,427.9 2,427.9

2020 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,530.7 19,804.8 2,337.6 2,337.6

2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,515.3 20,085.5 2,238.5 2,238.5

2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,498.8 20,314.7 2,127.1 2,127.1

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,471.0 20,493.6 2,000.5 2,000.5

2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,430.5 20,642.8 1,857.5 1,857.5

2025 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,379.7 20,744.0 1,699.7 1,699.7

2026 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,320.5 20,784.6 1,527.9 1,527.9

2027 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,254.0 20,747.2 1,343.1 1,343.1

2028 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,181.5 20,625.1 1,146.5 1,146.5

2029 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,104.5 20,422.9 939.8 939.8

2030 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,024.6 20,183.3 724.6 724.6

2031 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,943.0 19,943.7 502.3 502.3

2032 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,861.0 19,705.2 274.5 274.5

2033 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,779.9 19,474.0 42.8 42.8

2034 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,701.6 19,248.0 -190.6 -190.6

2035 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,626.1 19,027.7 -425.3 -425.3

2036 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,553.8 18,807.4 -660.8 -660.8

2037 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,485.7 18,596.1 -895.6 -895.6

2038 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,422.7 18,395.2 -1,128.4 -1,128.4

2039 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,365.6 18,195.7 -1,358.1 -1,358.1

2040 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,314.4 18,000.2 -1,584.1 -1,584.1

2041 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,269.5 17,808.7 -1,806.0 -1,806.0

2042 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,230.3 17,617.1 -2,023.8 -2,023.8

2043 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,196.6 17,429.4 -2,237.7 -2,237.7

2044 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,168.0 17,243.1 -2,447.6 -2,447.6

2045 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,144.3 17,050.6 -2,653.8 -2,653.8

2046 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,125.0 16,863.4 -2,856.3 -2,856.3

2047 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,109.6 16,675.8 -3,055.5 -3,055.5

2048 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,097.7 16,486.5 -3,251.6 -3,251.6

2049 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,089.2 16,298.3 -3,444.8 -3,444.8

2050 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,083.3 16,109.8 -3,635.7 -3,635.7

2051 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,079.2 15,921.2 -3,824.8 -3,824.8

2052 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,076.4 15,734.1 -4,012.6 -4,012.6

2053 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,074.5 15,547.0 -4,199.5 -4,199.5

2054 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,072.9 15,361.2 -4,386.0 -4,386.0

2055 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,071.2 15,176.7 -4,572.4 -4,572.4

2056 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,069.5 14,993.4 -4,758.9 -4,758.9

2057 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,067.3 14,811.3 -4,945.7 -4,945.7

2058 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,064.4 14,630.8 -5,132.6 -5,132.6

2059 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,060.8 14,452.8 -5,319.5 -5,319.5

2060 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,056.3 14,276.9 -5,506.5 -5,506.5

2061 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,050.7 14,103.0 -5,693.5 -5,693.5

2062 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,044.0 13,931.9 -5,880.4 -5,880.4

2063 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,036.2 13,763.1 -6,067.3 -6,067.3

2064 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,027.2 13,597.0 -6,254.0 -6,254.0

2065 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,017.0 13,433.0 -6,440.7 -6,440.7

2066 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,005.3 13,271.3 -6,627.4 -6,627.4

2067 0.0 0.0 0.0 992.2 13,112.0 -6,814.1 -6,814.1

2068 0.0 0.0 0.0 977.8 12,954.5 -7,000.8 -7,000.8

2069 0.0 0.0 0.0 962.2 12,799.7 -7,187.5 -7,187.5

2070 0.0 0.0 0.0 945.6 12,647.5 -7,374.0 -7,374.0

2071 0.0 0.0 0.0 928.4 12,497.5 -7,560.2 -7,560.2

2072 0.0 0.0 0.0 910.8 12,349.6 -7,745.7 -7,745.7

2073 0.0 0.0 0.0 892.8 12,203.5 -7,930.3 -7,930.3

2074 0.0 0.0 0.0 874.5 12,059.4 -8,113.7 -8,113.7

2075 0.0 0.0 0.0 856.2 11,916.9 -8,295.5 -8,295.5

2076 0.0 0.0 0.0 838.2 11,775.9 -8,475.4 -8,475.4

2077 0.0 0.0 0.0 820.4 11,636.3 -8,653.2 -8,653.2

2078 0.0 0.0 0.0 802.9 11,498.1 -8,828.7 -8,828.7

2079 0.0 0.0 0.0 786.1 11,361.5 -9,002.0 -9,002.0

2080 0.0 0.0 0.0 770.2 11,225.9 -9,173.1 -9,173.1

2081 0.0 0.0 0.0 755.0 11,091.2 -9,342.2 -9,342.2

2082 0.0 0.0 0.0 740.4 10,957.5 -9,509.5 -9,509.5

2083 0.0 0.0 0.0 726.2 10,824.6 -9,675.4 -9,675.4

2084 0.0 0.0 0.0 712.0 10,692.5 -9,840.1 -9,840.1

2085 0.0 0.0 0.0 697.8 10,561.5 -10,003.7 -10,003.7

2086 0.0 0.0 0.0 683.8 10,431.7 -10,166.5 -10,166.5

2087 0.0 0.0 0.0 669.4 10,303.0 -10,328.5 -10,328.5

2088 0.0 0.0 0.0 654.6 10,175.5 -10,489.7 -10,489.7

2089 0.0 0.0 0.0 639.0 10,049.3 -10,650.3 -10,650.3

2090 0.0 0.0 0.0 622.5 9,924.4 -10,810.1 -10,810.1

Total 2015-2089 0.0

Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report.

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%.

Office of the Chief Actuary 1

 Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption Social Security Administration

 that the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury. July 13, 2016

Calendar

Year

Proposal General Fund Transfers Present Value in Billions as of 1-1-2015

Proposal

Total OASDI

Trust Fund

Reserves

 at End of Year

Theoretical Social Security1

with Borrowing Authority

Present Value in Billions as of 1-1- 2015 Net OASDI Trust Fund Reserves at End of Year
Table 1b - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1

 (Present Value Dollars)

H.R. 5747, “S.O.S. Act of 2016”, Introduced by Representative Reid Ribble

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End Of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2017 0.0 20.9 20.9 -20.9 20.9 0.0 0.0

2018 0.0 42.0 42.0 -62.9 42.6 0.0 0.0

2019 0.0 58.4 58.4 -121.3 60.4 0.0 0.0

2020 0.0 71.8 71.8 -193.1 75.8 0.0 0.0

2021 0.0 83.8 83.8 -276.8 90.3 0.0 0.0

2022 0.0 94.8 94.8 -371.7 104.5 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 98.9 98.9 -470.6 112.2 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 102.4 102.4 -573.0 119.9 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 107.1 107.1 -680.0 130.2 0.0 0.0

2026 0.0 112.6 112.6 -792.6 142.2 0.0 0.0

2027 0.0 118.3 118.3 -910.9 155.4 0.0 0.0

2028 0.0 124.1 124.1 -1,035.0 169.9 0.0 0.0

2029 0.0 129.7 129.7 -1,164.8 185.3 0.0 0.0

2030 0.0 135.3 135.3 -1,300.0 197.9 0.0 0.0

2031 0.0 140.7 140.7 -1,440.7 210.5 0.0 0.0

2032 0.0 145.8 145.8 -1,586.5 223.2 0.0 0.0

2033 0.0 150.6 150.6 -1,737.1 235.8 0.0 0.0

2034 0.0 155.1 155.1 -1,892.1 248.4 0.0 0.0

2035 0.0 159.3 159.3 -2,051.4 260.9 0.0 0.0

2036 0.0 163.2 163.2 -2,214.6 273.4 0.0 0.0

2037 0.0 166.7 166.7 -2,381.3 285.7 0.0 0.0

2038 0.0 169.8 169.8 -2,551.1 297.8 0.0 0.0

2039 0.0 172.5 172.5 -2,723.7 309.6 0.0 0.0

2040 0.0 174.8 174.8 -2,898.5 321.2 0.0 0.0

2041 0.0 176.9 176.9 -3,075.4 332.6 0.0 0.0

2042 0.0 178.7 178.7 -3,254.1 343.9 0.0 0.0

2043 0.0 180.2 180.2 -3,434.2 355.0 0.0 0.0

2044 0.0 181.4 181.4 -3,615.7 366.0 0.0 0.0

2045 0.0 182.4 182.4 -3,798.1 376.7 0.0 0.0

2046 0.0 183.2 183.2 -3,981.3 387.3 0.0 0.0

2047 0.0 183.8 183.8 -4,165.1 397.7 0.0 0.0

2048 0.0 184.3 184.3 -4,349.4 408.1 0.0 0.0

2049 0.0 184.7 184.7 -4,534.0 418.4 0.0 0.0

2050 0.0 184.9 184.9 -4,718.9 428.5 0.0 0.0

2051 0.0 185.0 185.0 -4,903.9 438.6 0.0 0.0

2052 0.0 185.0 185.0 -5,089.0 448.5 0.0 0.0

2053 0.0 185.0 185.0 -5,274.0 458.4 0.0 0.0

2054 0.0 184.9 184.9 -5,458.9 468.3 0.0 0.0

2055 0.0 184.8 184.8 -5,643.7 478.1 0.0 0.0

2056 0.0 184.8 184.8 -5,828.4 488.0 0.0 0.0

2057 0.0 184.5 184.5 -6,013.0 497.7 0.0 0.0

2058 0.0 184.0 184.0 -6,197.0 507.1 0.0 0.0

2059 0.0 183.3 183.3 -6,380.4 516.3 0.0 0.0

2060 0.0 182.5 182.5 -6,562.8 525.3 0.0 0.0

2061 0.0 181.4 181.4 -6,744.2 534.0 0.0 0.0

2062 0.0 180.2 180.2 -6,924.5 542.6 0.0 0.0

2063 0.0 179.0 179.0 -7,103.5 551.1 0.0 0.0

2064 0.0 177.8 177.8 -7,281.2 559.5 0.0 0.0

2065 0.0 176.5 176.5 -7,457.7 567.7 0.0 0.0

2066 0.0 175.0 175.0 -7,632.7 575.7 0.0 0.0

2067 0.0 173.6 173.6 -7,806.4 583.7 0.0 0.0

2068 0.0 172.3 172.3 -7,978.7 591.8 0.0 0.0

2069 0.0 171.1 171.1 -8,149.7 599.8 0.0 0.0

2070 0.0 169.9 169.9 -8,319.6 607.8 0.0 0.0

2071 0.0 169.0 169.0 -8,488.6 616.0 0.0 0.0

2072 0.0 167.9 167.9 -8,656.5 624.0 0.0 0.0

2073 0.0 166.6 166.6 -8,823.1 631.7 0.0 0.0

2074 0.0 165.1 165.1 -8,988.2 639.2 0.0 0.0

2075 0.0 163.5 163.5 -9,151.7 646.5 0.0 0.0

2076 0.0 161.8 161.8 -9,313.5 653.6 0.0 0.0

2077 0.0 160.0 160.0 -9,473.5 660.4 0.0 0.0

2078 0.0 158.1 158.1 -9,631.6 667.1 0.0 0.0

2079 0.0 156.5 156.5 -9,788.1 674.0 0.0 0.0

2080 0.0 155.2 155.2 -9,943.3 681.1 0.0 0.0

2081 0.0 153.9 153.9 -10,097.2 688.2 0.0 0.0

2082 0.0 152.7 152.7 -10,249.9 695.3 0.0 0.0

2083 0.0 151.6 151.6 -10,401.6 702.4 0.0 0.0

2084 0.0 150.5 150.5 -10,552.1 709.4 0.0 0.0

2085 0.0 149.5 149.5 -10,701.6 716.4 0.0 0.0

2086 0.0 148.7 148.7 -10,850.2 723.7 0.0 0.0

2087 0.0 147.6 147.6 -10,997.9 730.7 0.0 0.0

2088 0.0 146.4 146.4 -11,144.3 737.3 0.0 0.0

2089 0.0 144.9 144.9 -11,289.2 743.8 0.0 0.0

Total 2015-2089 0.0 11,289.2 11,289.2

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report.

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%.

Note: Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would Office of the Chief Actuary

 nonetheless be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. Social Security Administration 1

 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table. July 13, 2016

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2015
Table 1b.n - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1

 (Nominal Dollars)

H.R. 5747, “S.O.S. Act of 2016”, Introduced by Representative Reid Ribble

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2017 0.0 22.7 22.7 -23.1 23.1 0.0 0.0

2018 0.0 46.9 46.9 -71.7 48.6 0.0 0.0

2019 0.0 67.5 67.5 -143.0 71.4 0.0 0.0

2020 0.0 85.8 85.8 -235.9 92.8 0.0 0.0

2021 0.0 103.6 103.6 -350.6 114.8 0.0 0.0

2022 0.0 121.5 121.5 -488.5 137.9 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 131.4 131.4 -642.5 154.0 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 141.1 141.1 -813.8 171.3 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 153.5 153.5 -1,007.5 193.7 0.0 0.0

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report.

Note: Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would Office of the Chief Actuary

 nonetheless be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. Social Security Administration 1

 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table. July 13, 2016

Billions of Nominal Dollars
Table 1c - Present Law and Proposal Cost, Expenditures, and Income: As Percent of Gross Domestic Product

Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

2015 4.98 4.98 4.52 4.98 4.98 4.52

2016 4.89 4.89 4.54 4.89 4.89 4.54

2017 4.96 4.96 4.61 4.99 4.99 4.75

2018 5.02 5.02 4.65 5.03 5.03 4.88

2019 5.10 5.10 4.68 5.09 5.09 4.98

2020 5.17 5.17 4.71 5.14 5.14 5.04

2021 5.23 5.23 4.74 5.18 5.18 5.10

2022 5.31 5.31 4.76 5.24 5.24 5.15

2023 5.41 5.41 4.78 5.30 5.30 5.17

2024 5.50 5.50 4.80 5.38 5.38 5.18

2025 5.57 5.57 4.80 5.42 5.42 5.17

2026 5.63 5.63 4.80 5.46 5.46 5.17

2027 5.70 5.70 4.80 5.49 5.49 5.17

2028 5.76 5.76 4.80 5.52 5.52 5.17

2029 5.82 5.82 4.80 5.54 5.54 5.16

2030 5.87 5.87 4.80 5.56 5.56 5.16

2031 5.91 5.91 4.79 5.57 5.57 5.15

2032 5.95 5.95 4.79 5.57 5.57 5.15

2033 5.98 5.98 4.79 5.57 5.57 5.14

2034 6.00 5.00 4.78 5.55 5.55 5.14

2035 6.02 4.78 4.78 5.54 5.54 5.13

2036 6.04 4.78 4.78 5.52 5.52 5.13

2037 6.05 4.78 4.78 5.50 5.50 5.13

2038 6.04 4.77 4.77 5.47 5.47 5.12

2039 6.04 4.77 4.77 5.44 5.44 5.12

2040 6.03 4.77 4.77 5.40 5.40 5.11

2041 6.02 4.76 4.76 5.37 5.37 5.11

2042 6.00 4.76 4.76 5.33 5.33 5.10

2043 5.99 4.76 4.76 5.30 5.30 5.10

2044 5.98 4.76 4.76 5.27 5.27 5.09

2045 5.97 4.75 4.75 5.24 5.24 5.09

2046 5.96 4.75 4.75 5.21 5.21 5.09

2047 5.95 4.75 4.75 5.18 5.18 5.08

2048 5.94 4.75 4.75 5.16 5.16 5.08

2049 5.93 4.74 4.74 5.14 5.14 5.08

2050 5.93 4.74 4.74 5.12 5.12 5.07

2051 5.93 4.74 4.74 5.10 5.10 5.07

2052 5.93 4.74 4.74 5.09 5.09 5.07

2053 5.94 4.73 4.73 5.08 5.08 5.06

2054 5.95 4.73 4.73 5.08 5.08 5.06

2055 5.96 4.73 4.73 5.07 5.07 5.06

2056 5.98 4.72 4.72 5.07 5.07 5.05

2057 5.99 4.72 4.72 5.07 5.07 5.05

2058 6.00 4.72 4.72 5.07 5.07 5.05

2059 6.02 4.72 4.72 5.07 5.07 5.04

2060 6.03 4.71 4.71 5.08 5.08 5.04

2061 6.04 4.71 4.71 5.08 5.08 5.04

2062 6.05 4.71 4.71 5.09 5.09 5.03

2063 6.07 4.70 4.70 5.09 5.09 5.03

2064 6.08 4.70 4.70 5.09 5.09 5.02

2065 6.09 4.69 4.69 5.10 5.10 5.02

2066 6.10 4.69 4.69 5.11 5.11 5.01

2067 6.11 4.68 4.68 5.11 5.11 5.01

2068 6.13 4.68 4.68 5.12 5.12 5.00

2069 6.14 4.67 4.67 5.12 5.12 5.00

2070 6.15 4.67 4.67 5.13 5.13 4.99

2071 6.16 4.67 4.67 5.13 5.13 4.99

2072 6.17 4.66 4.66 5.13 5.13 4.98

2073 6.18 4.66 4.66 5.13 5.13 4.98

2074 6.18 4.65 4.65 5.13 5.13 4.97

2075 6.18 4.65 4.65 5.13 5.13 4.97

2076 6.18 4.64 4.64 5.12 5.12 4.96

2077 6.17 4.64 4.64 5.11 5.11 4.95

2078 6.16 4.63 4.63 5.11 5.11 4.95

2079 6.16 4.63 4.63 5.10 5.10 4.94

2080 6.15 4.62 4.62 5.08 5.08 4.94

2081 6.15 4.62 4.62 5.07 5.07 4.93

2082 6.14 4.61 4.61 5.07 5.07 4.93

2083 6.14 4.61 4.61 5.06 5.06 4.92

2084 6.15 4.60 4.60 5.06 5.06 4.92

2085 6.16 4.60 4.60 5.06 5.06 4.92

2086 6.16 4.60 4.60 5.05 5.05 4.91

2087 6.17 4.59 4.59 5.05 5.05 4.91

2088 6.18 4.59 4.59 5.06 5.06 4.91

2089 6.19 4.59 4.59 5.06 5.06 4.90

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

July 13, 2016

Present Law OASDI Proposal OASDI

Calendar

Year

H.R. 5747, “S.O.S. Act of 2016”, Introduced by Representative Reid Ribble
Table 1d - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Reserves / Unfunded Obligation

H.R. 5747, “S.O.S. Act of 2016”, Introduced by Representative Reid Ribble

Year

Present Law OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Total Change

Through

End of Year

Proposal OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) = cumulative sum(4) (6) = (1)+(5)

2015 2,707.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,707.3

2016 2,643.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,643.2

2017 2,578.0 26.6 5.6 20.9 20.9 2,598.9

2018 2,507.4 44.4 2.4 42.0 62.9 2,570.3

2019 2,427.9 56.8 -1.6 58.4 121.3 2,549.2

2020 2,337.6 65.7 -6.0 71.8 193.1 2,530.7

2021 2,238.5 73.0 -10.8 83.8 276.8 2,515.3

2022 2,127.1 79.0 -15.8 94.8 371.7 2,498.8

2023 2,000.5 78.1 -20.8 98.9 470.6 2,471.0

2024 1,857.5 76.8 -25.6 102.4 573.0 2,430.5

2025 1,699.7 76.8 -30.2 107.1 680.0 2,379.7

2026 1,527.9 76.8 -35.8 112.6 792.6 2,320.5

2027 1,343.1 76.2 -42.1 118.3 910.9 2,254.0

2028 1,146.5 75.5 -48.7 124.1 1,035.0 2,181.5

2029 939.8 74.3 -55.4 129.7 1,164.8 2,104.5

2030 724.6 73.0 -62.3 135.3 1,300.0 2,024.6

2031 502.3 71.8 -68.9 140.7 1,440.7 1,943.0

2032 274.5 70.5 -75.3 145.8 1,586.5 1,861.0

2033 42.8 69.3 -81.3 150.6 1,737.1 1,779.9

2034 -190.6 68.2 -86.9 155.1 1,892.1 1,701.6

2035 -425.3 67.1 -92.2 159.3 2,051.4 1,626.1

2036 -660.8 66.0 -97.2 163.2 2,214.6 1,553.8

2037 -895.6 64.9 -101.8 166.7 2,381.3 1,485.7

2038 -1,128.4 63.9 -105.9 169.8 2,551.1 1,422.7

2039 -1,358.1 63.0 -109.6 172.5 2,723.7 1,365.6

2040 -1,584.1 62.0 -112.8 174.8 2,898.5 1,314.4

2041 -1,806.0 61.2 -115.7 176.9 3,075.4 1,269.5

2042 -2,023.8 60.3 -118.4 178.7 3,254.1 1,230.3

2043 -2,237.7 59.4 -120.7 180.2 3,434.2 1,196.6

2044 -2,447.6 58.6 -122.9 181.4 3,615.7 1,168.0

2045 -2,653.8 57.8 -124.7 182.4 3,798.1 1,144.3

2046 -2,856.3 57.0 -126.2 183.2 3,981.3 1,125.0

2047 -3,055.5 56.2 -127.6 183.8 4,165.1 1,109.6

2048 -3,251.6 55.4 -128.9 184.3 4,349.4 1,097.7

2049 -3,444.8 54.6 -130.0 184.7 4,534.0 1,089.2

2050 -3,635.7 53.8 -131.1 184.9 4,718.9 1,083.3

2051 -3,824.8 53.1 -131.9 185.0 4,903.9 1,079.2

2052 -4,012.6 52.4 -132.7 185.0 5,089.0 1,076.4

2053 -4,199.5 51.6 -133.4 185.0 5,274.0 1,074.5

2054 -4,386.0 50.9 -134.0 184.9 5,458.9 1,072.9

2055 -4,572.4 50.2 -134.6 184.8 5,643.7 1,071.2

2056 -4,758.9 49.4 -135.4 184.8 5,828.4 1,069.5

2057 -4,945.7 48.7 -135.8 184.5 6,013.0 1,067.3

2058 -5,132.6 48.0 -136.1 184.0 6,197.0 1,064.4

2059 -5,319.5 47.3 -136.1 183.3 6,380.4 1,060.8

2060 -5,506.5 46.6 -135.9 182.5 6,562.8 1,056.3

2061 -5,693.5 45.9 -135.4 181.4 6,744.2 1,050.7

2062 -5,880.4 45.3 -134.9 180.2 6,924.5 1,044.0

2063 -6,067.3 44.7 -134.3 179.0 7,103.5 1,036.2

2064 -6,254.0 44.1 -133.7 177.8 7,281.2 1,027.2

2065 -6,440.7 43.5 -133.0 176.5 7,457.7 1,017.0

2066 -6,627.4 42.9 -132.1 175.0 7,632.7 1,005.3

2067 -6,814.1 42.3 -131.3 173.6 7,806.4 992.2

2068 -7,000.8 41.7 -130.6 172.3 7,978.7 977.8

2069 -7,187.5 41.2 -129.9 171.1 8,149.7 962.2

2070 -7,374.0 40.6 -129.2 169.9 8,319.6 945.6

2071 -7,560.2 40.1 -128.9 169.0 8,488.6 928.4

2072 -7,745.7 39.6 -128.3 167.9 8,656.5 910.8

2073 -7,930.3 39.0 -127.6 166.6 8,823.1 892.8

2074 -8,113.7 38.5 -126.6 165.1 8,988.2 874.5

2075 -8,295.5 38.0 -125.5 163.5 9,151.7 856.2

2076 -8,475.4 37.5 -124.4 161.8 9,313.5 838.2

2077 -8,653.2 37.0 -123.0 160.0 9,473.5 820.4

2078 -8,828.7 36.5 -121.5 158.1 9,631.6 802.9

2079 -9,002.0 36.0 -120.5 156.5 9,788.1 786.1

2080 -9,173.1 35.6 -119.6 155.2 9,943.3 770.2

2081 -9,342.2 35.2 -118.8 153.9 10,097.2 755.0

2082 -9,509.5 34.7 -118.0 152.7 10,249.9 740.4

2083 -9,675.4 34.3 -117.4 151.6 10,401.6 726.2

2084 -9,840.1 33.8 -116.7 150.5 10,552.1 712.0

2085 -10,003.7 33.3 -116.1 149.5 10,701.6 697.8

2086 -10,166.5 32.8 -115.8 148.7 10,850.2 683.8

2087 -10,328.5 32.4 -115.3 147.6 10,997.9 669.4

2088 -10,489.7 31.9 -114.5 146.4 11,144.3 654.6

2089 -10,650.3 31.5 -113.5 144.9 11,289.2 639.0

Total 2015-2089 3,801.6 -7,487.6 11,289.2

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%. July 13, 2016

(Billions of Dollars, Present Value on 1-1-2015)