SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE, MD 21235-0001

SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

October 26, 2021 

The Honorable John Larson 

Subcommittee on Social Security

Committee on Ways and Means

United States House of Representatives 

Washington, D.C. 20515 

Dear Chairman Larson: 

I am writing in response to your request for our estimates of the financial effects on Social 

Security of enacting Social Security 2100: A Sacred Trust, which you introduced today. The 

estimates provided here reflect the intermediate assumptions and baseline projections of the 2021 

Trustees Report.

This Bill (hereafter referred to as the proposal) includes 14 provisions with direct effects on the 

OASI and DI Trust Funds. As detailed in this letter, these provisions would provide benefit 

enhancements that would, for 12 of the provisions, apply for eligible benefits for affected 

individuals in five years (generally 2022 through 2026), and then revert to current-law benefit 

levels for eligible benefits after the five-year period. The descriptions of these provisions and our 

estimates reflect our understanding of the intended effects for this proposal and may be subject to 

modification on further clarification of the provision specifications. 

We have enjoyed working closely with Nancy Perry, Kathryn Olson, and Elisa Walker. The 

estimates and analysis provided here reflect the combined effort of many in the Office of the 

Chief Actuary, but most particularly Karen Glenn, Christopher Chaplain, Daniel Nickerson, Kyle 

Burkhalter, Michael Clingman, Anna Kirjusina, Katie Sutton, and Tiffany Bosley. 

The enclosed tables provide estimates of the effects of the 14 provisions on the cost, income, and 

combined trust fund reserves for the Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) 

program, as well as estimated effects on retired worker benefit levels for selected hypothetical 

workers and effects on payroll tax levels. In addition, tables 1b and 1b.n provide estimates of the 

federal budget implications of these 14 provisions with direct effects on the OASDI program. 

We estimate that enactment of these provisions would extend the ability of the OASDI program 

to pay scheduled benefits in full and on time, by moving the date of projected depletion of the 

combined OASI and DI Trust Fund reserves from 2034 under current law to 2038, under the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2021 Trustees Report. In addition, because the payroll tax 

provision is not temporary, the level of benefits that would be payable would be increased in all 
Page 2 – The Honorable John Larson

years after projected trust fund reserve depletion in 2038. For the calendar year period 2022 

through 2031, the OASDI net cash flow is projected to increase by $555 billion. The increased 

net revenue from the payroll tax rate increase on earners over $400,000 (Sections 201 and 202)

more than offsets the increased cost from the 12 temporary benefit enhancement provisions, most 

of which apply from 2022 to 2026. 

The following list briefly describes each of the 14 provisions of the proposal with direct effects 

on the OASI and DI Trust Funds:

Section 101. Increase the first PIA formula factor from 90 percent to 93 percent for all 

beneficiaries with benefit entitlement for months in 2022 through 2026. Revert to current-law 

benefit levels for January 2027 and later.

Section 102. Use the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E) rather than the Consumer 

Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) to temporarily calculate 

the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), effective for December 2022 through December 2026

COLAs. Revert to current-law benefit levels for January 2028 and later. We estimate this 

change would increase the COLA by an average of 0.2 percentage point per year.

Section 103. Increase the special minimum PIA temporarily for workers who become newly 

eligible for retirement or disability benefits or die in 2022 through 2026. Revert to currentlaw benefit levels for January 2027 and later. For workers who become newly eligible or die

in 2022, the minimum PIA for 2022 for workers with 30 or more years of coverage (YOCs) is 

125 percent of the annual poverty guideline for a single individual published by the 

Department of Health and Human Services for 2021, divided by 12. For workers who become

newly eligible or die in 2023 through 2026, the minimum PIA for their initial year of 

eligibility is increased by the growth in the national average wage index (AWI). For all 

affected benefits, the minimum PIA is increased by the COLA after the worker’s year of 

initial eligibility.

Section 104. Replace the current-law thresholds for federal income taxation of OASDI 

benefits with a single set of thresholds at $35,000 for single filers and $50,000 for joint filers 

for taxation of up to 85 percent of OASDI benefits, effective for tax years 2022 through 2026. 

Revert to current-law specifications for tax years 2027 and later. The amount of revenue from 

taxation of OASDI benefits that would be allocated to Medicare’s Hospital Insurance (HI)

Trust Fund for tax years 2022 through 2026 will be at the same level as if the current-law 

computation (in the absence of this provision) were applied. The net amount of revenue from 

taxing OASDI benefits, after the allocation to HI, would be allocated to the combined OASI 

and DI Trust Funds.

Section 105. Establish an alternative benefit for surviving spouses. This benefit would be 

available temporarily for surviving spouses with benefit entitlement for months in 2022

through 2026. Revert to current-law benefit levels for January 2027 and later. For the 

surviving spouse, the alternative benefit would equal 75 percent of the sum of the survivor’s 

own worker benefit and the deceased worker’s PIA (including any actuarial reductions or 

delayed retirement credits (DRC)). If the deceased worker died before becoming entitled, use 

the age 62 actuarial reduction if deceased before age 62, or the applicable actuarial 
Page 3 – The Honorable John Larson

reduction/DRC for entitlement at the age of death if deceased after 62. The alternative benefit 

would not exceed the PIA of a hypothetical earner who earns the AWI every year, and who 

becomes eligible for retired-worker benefits in the same year in which the deceased worker 

became entitled to worker benefits or died (if before entitlement). The alternative benefit 

would be paid only if more than the current-law benefit.

Section 106. Provide a 5-percent uniform PIA increase 20 years after initial eligibility, 

temporarily for 2022 through 2026. Revert to current-law benefit levels for January 2027 and 

later. The benefit increase would be phased in at 1 percent per year from the 16th calendar 

year through the 20th calendar year after the year of initial eligibility. The uniform PIA 

increase is equal to the specified percent of the PIA of a worker who becomes newly eligible 

in the same year who had career-average earnings (AIME) equal to the AWI for the second 

year prior to initial eligibility. Auxiliary beneficiaries would receive benefit enhancements

based on the PIA of the governing worker.

Section 107. For workers caring for a child under age 12 or for a dependent relative, provide 

a temporary “earnings” credit on their record to be used for computation of their benefit. 

Effective for all beneficiaries with benefit entitlement for months in 2022 through 2026, with 

all past caregiving years counted. Revert to current-law benefit levels for January 2027 and 

later.

Section 108. Eliminate the DI waiting period after enactment of the proposal effective for 

those who become newly entitled in 2022 through 2026. Revert to current law for new 

entitlements in January 2027 and later.

Section 109. End the DI benefit cliff temporarily for beneficiaries with earnings after initial 

disability entitlement for months in 2022 through 2026. In this period, use a $1-for-$2 offset 

for earnings above the blind substantial gainful activity (SGA) level. Revert to current law for 

months of benefit entitlement in 2027 and later.

Section 110. Temporarily cease applying the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and 

Government Pension Offset (GPO) for all beneficiaries with benefit entitlement for months in

2022 through 2026. Revert to current-law benefit levels for January 2027 and later.

Section 111. Provide benefits for full-time and part-time students who are children of 

disabled, retired, or deceased workers until attainment of age 26, for all eligible children with 

benefit entitlement for months in 2022 through 2026. Revert to current-law benefit levels for 

January 2027 and later.

Section 112. Provide benefits to children who are in the custody of a grandparent or other 

eligible relative for at least 12 months and are receiving at least one-half of their financial 

support from the relative. Effective for all eligible children with benefit entitlement for months 

in 2022 through 2026. Revert to current-law benefit criteria for January 2027 and later.

Section 113. Prevent reductions in the AWI for any year 2021 or later from reducing benefits 

for individuals who become newly eligible for benefits two years later.
Page 4 – The Honorable John Larson

Section 201 and Section 202. Apply the combined OASDI payroll tax rate on covered earnings 

above $400,000 paid in 2022 and later. Tax all covered earnings once the current-law taxable 

maximum exceeds $400,000. Increase the computed level of the AWI for years after 2021 by 

amounts ranging from 1.4% for 2022 to 2.2% for 2050 and later. Credit the additional 

earnings that are taxed for benefit purposes by: (a) calculating a second average indexed 

monthly earnings (“AIME+”) reflecting only additional earnings taxed above the current-law 

taxable maximum, (b) applying a 1-percent factor on this newly computed “AIME+” to 

develop a second component of the PIA, and (c) adding this second component to the currentlaw PIA.

The balance of this letter provides a summary of the effects of the 14 provisions on the actuarial 

status of the OASDI program, our understanding of the specifications and intent of each of the 

14 provisions, and descriptions of our detailed financial estimates for trust fund operations, 

benefit levels, and implications for the federal budget. See the “Specification for Provisions of 

the Proposal” section of this letter for a more detailed description of these 14 provisions.

Summary of Effects of the Proposal on OASDI Actuarial Status

Figure 1 illustrates the projected OASDI Trust Fund ratio through 2095 under current law and 

assuming enactment of the proposal. The trust fund ratio is defined as the combined OASI and 

DI Trust Fund reserves expressed as a percent of annual program cost. Assuming enactment of 

the proposal, the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds are expected to be able to pay scheduled 

benefits in full and on time until 2038, under the intermediate assumptions of the 2021 Trustees 

Report.
Page 5 – The Honorable John Larson 

Under current law, 78 percent of scheduled benefits are projected to be payable on a timely basis 

in 2034 after depletion of the combined trust fund reserves, with the percentage payable 

declining to 74 percent for 2095. Under the proposal, 87 percent of scheduled benefits are 

projected to be payable on a timely basis in 2038 after depletion of the combined trust fund 

reserves, with the percentage payable increasing slightly to 88 percent for 2095. 

Enactment of the 14 provisions of this proposal would decrease the long-range OASDI actuarial 

deficit from 3.54 percent of taxable payroll under current law to 1.71 percent of payroll under the 

proposal. 

Figure 2 illustrates annual projected levels of cost, expenditures, and non-interest income as a 

percent of the current-law taxable payroll. The projected level of cost reflects the full cost of 

scheduled benefits under both current law and the proposal. After trust fund reserve depletion, 

projected expenditures under current law and under the proposal include only amounts payable 

from projected tax revenues (non-interest income), which are less than projected cost.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2021 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Trust Fund Ratio

Figure 1. Current-Law and Proposal OASDI Trust Fund Reserves as Percent of 

Annual Cost: 2021 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Current-Law Trust Fund Ratio

Proposal
Page 6 – The Honorable John Larson

Specific effects over the 75-year projection period include:

• OASDI program annual cost under the proposal is higher than under current law from 

2022 through 2027, when the temporary benefit enhancements are effective. This 

difference between proposal and current-law cost increases from 1.35 percent of currentlaw payroll for 2022 to 1.61 percent of current-law payroll for 2026 and declines to 0.2

percent for 2027. After 2027, program annual cost remains higher than under current law, 

ranging from 0.03 percent of payroll higher in 2028, declining slightly to 0.02 percent 

higher in 2029-43, and then increasing gradually to 0.11 percent higher by 2095.

• Beginning in 2022, non-interest income under the proposal is projected to be higher than 

under current law. This difference between proposal and current-law income increases

from 1.1 percent of current-law payroll for 2022 to 2.3 percent of current-law payroll for 

2050, and thereafter increases more gradually, reaching 2.4 percent of current-law payroll 

for 2095. For 2022 to 2026, the proposal reduces (worsens) the annual balance (noninterest income minus program cost), but then increases (improves) the annual balance 

for 2027 and later as most of the benefit enhancement effects end.

It is also useful to consider the projected cost, expenditures, and income for the OASDI program 

expressed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Figure 3 illustrates these levels 

under both current law and the proposal.

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

2021 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Percent of Current-Law Taxable Payroll

Figure 2. Proposal and Current-Law Cost, Expenditures, and Non-Interest Income 

as Percent of Taxable Payroll: 2021 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Current-Law Cost

Current-Law Non-Interest Income

Current-Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Non-Interest Income

Proposal Expenditures
Page 7 – The Honorable John Larson

Specification for and Effects of Provisions of the Proposal

Section 101. Increase the first PIA formula factor from 90 percent to 93 percent for all 

beneficiaries with benefit entitlement for months in 2022 through 2026. Revert to current-law 

benefit levels for January 2027 and later.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.02 percent of taxable payroll and would have no effect on the annual deficit 

for the 75th projection year (2095).

Section 102. Use the CPI-E rather than the CPI-W to temporarily calculate the COLA, 

effective for December 2022 through December 2026 COLAs. Revert to current-law benefit

levels for January 2028 and later.

Under current law, the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) applied to Social Security 

benefits is calculated using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical 

Workers (CPI-W). We estimate that using the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E) 

rather than the CPI-W in each year from the December 2022 through December 2026 COLAs

would increase the effective COLA by 0.2 percentage points per year on average. For this 

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

2021 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Percent of GDP

Figure 3. Proposal and Current-Law Cost, Expenditures, and Non-Interest Income 

as Percent of GDP: 2021 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Current-Law Cost

Current-Law Non-Interest Income

Current-Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Non-Interest Income

Proposal Expenditures
Page 8 – The Honorable John Larson

provision, the COLAs based on CPI-E would apply for benefits paid from 2023 through 2027, 

then revert to current-law benefit levels for years 2028 and later. 

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.01 percent of taxable payroll and would have no effect on the annual deficit 

for the 75th projection year (2095).

Section 103. Increase the special minimum PIA temporarily for workers who become newly 

eligible for retirement or disability benefits or die in 2022 through 2026. Revert to currentlaw benefit levels for January 2027 and later.

Under this provision, the minimum initial PIA for workers who become newly eligible or die in 

2022 with 30 or more years of coverage (YOCs) would be 125 percent of the annual poverty 

guideline for a single individual published by the Department of Health and Human Services for 

2021, divided by 12. For those with less than 30 YOCs, the minimum PIA per YOC in excess of 

10 YOCs is the minimum PIA for workers with 30 or more YOCs, divided by 20. Any year in 

which a worker earns four quarters of coverage is determined to be a YOC. For workers who 

become newly eligible or die in 2023 through 2026, the initial PIA per YOC in excess of 10 

YOCs is indexed from the 2022 level by growth in the AWI to determine the minimum PIA 

applicable for the year of initial eligibility. After the year of initial eligibility, the minimum 

benefit is increased by the COLA for each cohort. The 30 and 10 YOC levels apply for all 

workers, including those who die or become disabled under age 62. Increased benefits under this 

provision would be payable for affected beneficiaries only for months of eligibility in 2022 

through 2026.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by an amount that is negligible, that is, less than 0.005 percent of taxable payroll 

and would have no effect on the annual deficit for the 75th projection year (2095).

Section 104. Replace the current-law thresholds for federal income taxation of OASDI 

benefits with a single set of thresholds at $35,000 for single filers and $50,000 for joint filers 

for taxation of up to 85 percent of OASDI benefits, effective for tax years 2022 through 2026. 

Revert to current-law specifications for tax years 2027 and later.

Under current law, single tax filers with combined “income” (approximately equal to adjusted 

gross income plus non-taxable interest income and one-half of their Social Security benefit) 

greater than $25,000 may have to pay income tax on up to 50 percent of their Social Security 

benefits. If combined “income” exceeds $34,000, up to 85 percent of benefits may be taxable. 

The income tax revenue for taxing up to 50 percent of Social Security benefits is credited to the 

OASI and DI Trust Funds. The additional income tax revenue derived from taxing benefits in 

excess of 50 percent, up to 85 percent, is credited to the HI Trust Fund. The process is similar for 

joint tax filers, with $32,000 and $44,000 thresholds applying for possible taxation of up to 50 

percent or 85 percent of the Social Security benefits, respectively. All threshold levels are fixed 

amounts and not indexed to price inflation or the AWI.

Under the proposal, both sets of the current-law thresholds would be replaced with a single set of 

thresholds, $35,000 and $50,000 for single and joint filers, respectively, for taxing up to 85 
Page 9 – The Honorable John Larson

percent of OASDI benefits, effective for tax years 2022 through 2026. For tax years 2022 

through 2026, the amount of revenue from taxation of OASDI benefits that would be allocated to 

the HI Trust Fund would be at the same level as if the current-law computation (in the absence of 

this provision) were applied. The net amount of revenue from taxing OASDI benefits, after the 

allocation to HI, would be allocated to the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds. All 

specifications for taxing Social Security benefits would revert to current law for tax years 2027 

and later.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.01 percent of taxable payroll and would have no effect on the annual deficit 

for the 75th projection year (2095).

Section 105. Establish an alternative benefit for surviving spouses. This benefit would be 

available temporarily for surviving spouses with benefit entitlement for months in 2022

through 2026. Revert to current-law benefit levels for January 2027 and later.

Under current law, surviving spouses aged 60 or older are eligible to receive the higher of their 

own worker benefit (as a retiree or a disabled worker) or the benefit amount their deceased 

spouse was eligible to receive, subject to potential reductions for age at benefit entitlement. This 

proposed provision is intended to allow surviving spouses to receive an alternative benefit when 

it is higher than the benefit available under current law.

The alternative benefit would be computed as 75 percent of the sum of (a) the worker benefit (as 

a retired worker or as a disabled worker) the survivor is eligible to receive, including any 

reductions for age or DRC and (b) the worker benefit the deceased spouse would be eligible to 

receive if still alive, reflecting any reduction for age at entitlement or DRC (or if not entitled at 

death, then the reduction for age or DRC available for entitlement at the date of death or the 

earliest time thereafter). However, the size of the alternative benefit so computed would be 

limited so as not to exceed the PIA (unreduced for early retirement and not increased by DRC) 

for a theoretical retired worker who becomes entitled to benefits at age 62 in the same year the 

deceased first became entitled to a benefit (or the year of death if not yet entitled), with earnings 

for each year equal to the AWI. Benefit increases under this provision would be applicable for 

surviving spouses receiving benefits for months of benefit entitlement in 2022 through 2026.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.01 percent of taxable payroll and would have no effect on the annual deficit 

for the 75th projection year (2095).

Section 106. Provide a 5-percent uniform PIA increase 20 years after eligibility, temporarily 

for 2022 through 2026. Revert to current-law benefit levels for January 2027 and later.

The uniform PIA increase would be phased in at 1 percent per year from the 16th calendar year 

through the 20th calendar year after the year of initial eligibility. The uniform PIA increase is 

equal to the specified percent of the PIA of a worker who becomes newly eligible in the same 

year who had career-average earnings (AIME) equal to the AWI for the second year prior to 

initial eligibility. Auxiliary beneficiaries would receive benefit enhancements based on the PIA 
Page 10 – The Honorable John Larson

of the governing worker. Benefits under this provision would be payable for all qualifying 

beneficiaries with months of benefit entitlement in 2022 through 2026. 

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.01 percent of taxable payroll and would have no effect on the annual deficit 

for the 75th projection year (2095).

Section 107. For workers caring for a child under age 12 or for a dependent relative, provide 

a temporary “earnings” credit on their record to be used for computation of their benefit. 

Effective for all beneficiaries with benefit entitlement for months in 2022 through 2026, with 

all past caregiving years counted. Revert to current-law benefit levels for January 2027 and 

later.

For workers caring for a child under age 12 or for a dependent relative (a chronically dependent 

individuals unable to perform at least two of five activities of “daily living”), this provision 

applies a temporary “earnings credit” on the worker’s record to be used for computation of their 

benefit. The provision applies for years where earnings are less than the AWI of the second prior 

calendar year. If an individual has no earnings in the month, the “earnings credit” is one-half of 

the AWI level for the second prior calendar year. For those with positive earnings but less than 

the AWI level of the second prior calendar year, the additional earnings credit (or “top-up”)

equals one-half of the AWI level minus one-half of the earnings before the credit. For example, 

if the applicable AWI were $50,000 and an individual’s earnings before the credit were $40,000, 

then total credited earnings would equal $40,000 + 1⁄2 * ($50,000 - $40,000) or $45,000, with a 

top-up of $5,000. Stated another way, the additional earnings credited goes halfway from the 

earnings before the credit to the applicable AWI amount. 

This provision is effective for all beneficiaries with benefit entitlement for months in 2022 

through 2026. Benefit levels would not be affected under this provision for January 2027 or later. 

All past caregiving years before 2026 can qualify for the caregiver earnings credit. The 

computation would apply the most advantageous five caregiving years to maximize the worker’s 

benefit.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.03 percent of taxable payroll and would have no effect on the annual deficit 

for the 75th projection year (2095).

Section 108. Eliminate the DI waiting period after enactment of the proposal effective for 

those who become newly entitled in 2022 through 2026. Revert to current law for new 

entitlements in January 2027 and later.

Under current law, disabled workers and disabled widow(er)s must be disabled for five months 

after their disability onset date before they can begin receiving Social Security disability benefits. 

Section 108 would eliminate this five-month waiting period for disabled workers and disabled 

widow(er)s. Thus, the proposal would make Social Security monthly benefits available 

beginning with the first full month after the onset of disability. The proposal would become 

effective upon enactment for those who become newly entitled in 2022 through 2026. 
Page 11 – The Honorable John Larson

With temporary elimination of the DI waiting period, we project that some individuals who 

would otherwise not apply for benefits under current law would be induced to apply for and 

receive disability benefits. These individuals would continue to receive disability benefits for 

years 2027 and later, but those who become newly entitled in 2027 and later would be subject to 

the current-law DI waiting period. 

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.01 percent of taxable payroll and would have no effect on the annual deficit 

for the 75th projection year (2095).

Section 109. End the DI benefit cliff temporarily for beneficiaries with earnings after initial 

entitlement for months in 2022 through 2026. In this period, use a $1-for-$2 offset for 

earnings above the blind substantial gainful activity (SGA) level. Revert to current law for 

years 2027 and later.

Under current law, individuals entitled on the basis of disability who earn above a specified 

monthly amount for nine months over a 60-month trial work period (TWP) go into an extended 

period of eligibility (EPE) period of 36 months. During this EPE period, if monthly earnings are 

above a specified SGA amount, benefits are completely withheld for that month. If earnings are 

zero or not higher than the specified SGA amount for a given month, then full benefits are paid 

for that month. Then, after the 36-month period, for the first month earnings exceed the SGA 

level, the individual is terminated from receiving benefits. For non-blind disabled beneficiaries, 

the 2021 SGA level is $1,310 and for blind disabled beneficiaries, the 2021 SGA level is $2,190. 

Both SGA levels will increase in future years based on increases in the AWI.

Under this provision, the TWP would be retained, but the EPE and the possibility of benefit 

termination based on earnings would be temporarily eliminated. For only the purpose of benefit 

amount determinations after the TWP, the blind SGA level would also be used for all

beneficiaries: for instance, $2,190 rather than $1,310 would be used for 2021. The benefit 

reduction would remove the “cliff” of full benefits or no benefits, and instead reduce benefits by 

$1 for every $2 of monthly earnings above the blind SGA level. For example, if an individual 

were receiving a $1,500 monthly benefit during the current-law EPE period and earned $4,190 

for a given month in 2021, then the benefit received for that month would be $0 under current 

law, but would be $1,500 – 1⁄2 * (4,190 – 2,190) = $500 if this provision applies. Therefore, many 

disability beneficiaries in these five years would have the enhanced ability to have earnings with 

less benefit reduction.

This provision does not change the SGA earnings level used to determine allowances for 

disability benefits. Instead, it only applies to the thresholds used for benefit offset for 

beneficiaries after completion of the TWP.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by a negligible amount, that is, less than 0.005 percent of taxable payroll and 

would have no effect on the annual deficit for the 75th projection year (2095).
Page 12 – The Honorable John Larson

Section 110. Temporarily cease applying the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and 

Government Pension Offset (GPO) for all beneficiaries with benefit entitlement for months in

2022 through 2026. Revert to current-law benefit levels for January 2027 and later.

The Windfall Elimination Provision reduces the 90 percent PIA factor to as low as 40 percent for 

individuals who receive a pension based on employment not covered by Social Security. The 

Government Pension Offset reduces benefits for spouse and surviving spouse beneficiaries by 

two-thirds of qualifying non-covered government pensions. Such pensions include pensions 

based on state and local covered employment or for Federal workers covered under the Civil 

Service Retirement System. Section 110 would eliminate the WEP and GPO completely for all 

beneficiaries with benefit entitlement for months in 2022 through 2026.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.01 percent of taxable payroll and would have no effect on the annual deficit 

for the 75th projection year (2095).

Section 111. Provide benefits for full-time and part-time students who are children of 

disabled, retired, or deceased workers until attainment of age 26, for all eligible children with 

benefit entitlement for months in 2022 through 2026. Revert to current-law benefit levels for

January 2027 and later.

Under current law, benefits are available to children of retired, disabled, and deceased workers 

who are full-time students at a secondary school or elementary school, up to attainment of age 

19. This provision would extend eligibility of student benefits to full-time and part-time students 

(including post-secondary students) up to attainment of age 26, for all eligible children with 

benefit entitlement for months in 2022 through 2026.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.01 percent of taxable payroll and would have no effect on the annual deficit 

for the 75th projection year (2095).

Section 112. Provide benefits to children who are in the custody of a grandparent or other 

eligible relative for at least 12 months and are receiving at least one-half of their financial 

support from the relative. Effective for all eligible children with benefit entitlement for months 

in 2022 through 2026. Revert to current-law benefit criteria for January 2027 and later.

Under section 112, children in the custody of a grandparent or other eligible relative can receive 

Social Security benefits on the grandparent’s or eligible relative’s Social Security account. The 

grandparent or eligible relative must provide at least one-half of the child’s support. This 

provision is effective for all eligible children with benefit entitlement for months in 2022 through 

2026.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by a negligible amount, that is, less than 0.005 percent of taxable payroll and 

would have no effect on the annual deficit for the 75th projection year (2095).
Page 13 – The Honorable John Larson

Section 113. Prevent reductions in the AWI for any year 2021 or later from reducing benefits 

for individuals who become newly eligible for benefits two years later.

Under this provision, for any year where the AWI as computed would be lower than the AWI for 

any previous year, the largest AWI from among all previous years will be used for the purpose of 

computing the average indexed monthly earnings (AIME) and the PIA for all beneficiaries who 

become initially eligible for benefits two years after such year. This provision would apply for 

the AWI computed for all years 2021 and later. 

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by a negligible amount, that is, less than 0.005 percent of taxable payroll and 

would have a negligible effect on the annual deficit for the 75th projection year (2095).

Section 201 and Section 202. Apply the combined OASDI payroll tax rate on covered 

earnings above $400,000 paid in 2022 and later. Increase the computed level of the AWI for 

years after 2021 by amounts ranging from 1.4% for 2022to 2.2% for 2050 and later.

These provisions apply the OASDI payroll tax rate to covered earnings above $400,000 paid in 

2022 and later. The $400,000 level is a fixed amount after 2022 and is not indexed to price 

inflation or the AWI. All covered earnings would be taxed once the current-law taxable 

maximum exceeds $400,000, which is projected to occur in 2050. Any covered earnings above 

the higher of $400,000 or the current-law taxable maximum in a given year would be counted as 

“excess wages” and would be credited for benefit purposes by:

a. Calculating a second average indexed monthly earnings (“AIME+”) reflecting only 

additional earnings taxed above the current-law maximum,

b. Applying a 1-percent PIA factor to this newly computed “AIME+” to develop a second 

component of the PIA, and

c. Adding this second PIA component to the current-law PIA.

In addition, the AWI would be increased above the computed level for all years beginning in 

2022, as follows: 1.4 percent for years 2022-27, 1.5 percent for 2028-31, 1.6 percent for 2032-

34, 1.7 percent for 2035-37, 1.8 percent for 2038-40, 1.9 percent for 2041-43, 2.0 percent for 

2044-46, 2.1 percent for 2047-49, and 2.2 percent for 2050 and later.

The AWI increases for years 2022 and later and the secondary AIME+ calculation in sections 

201 and 202 increase OASDI cost. However, in response to the increased payroll tax in section 

201 for 2022 and later, we assume employers and employees will redistribute total employee 

compensation among taxes, wages, and other compensation. This behavioral response reduces 

the increase in both payroll tax revenue and scheduled benefits that would accrue in the absence 

of this behavioral response.

We estimate that enactment of sections 201 and 202 alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 1.95 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2095) by 2.28 percent of payroll.
Page 14 – The Honorable John Larson

Detailed Financial Results for the Provisions of the Proposal

Summary Results by Provision

Table A provides estimates of the effects on the OASDI long-range actuarial balance of the 

provisions of the proposal separately and on a combined basis. The table also includes estimates 

of the effect of the provisions on the annual balance (the difference between income rate and the 

cost rate, expressed as a percent of current-law taxable payroll) for the 75th projection year, 2095. 

Interaction among individual provisions is reflected only in the total estimates for the combined 

provisions.

Benefit Illustrations

Tables B1 and B2 provide illustrative examples of the projected change in benefit levels under 

the provisions of the proposal for beneficiaries retiring and starting benefit receipt at age 65 in 

future years at six selected earnings levels, with selected numbers of years of work. The 

“Maximum-AIME Steady Earner” is assumed to have earnings at ages 22 through 64 that equal 

the current-law taxable maximum level (equivalent to $142,800 for 2021) and the “Twice 

Maximum-AIME Steady Earner” is assumed to have earnings at ages 22 through 64 that equal 

twice the current-law taxable maximum level (equivalent to $285,600 for 2021). As a result, the 

provision to tax and credit earnings above the current-law taxable maximum affects only the 

“Twice Maximum-AIME Steady Earner” benefit level. Table B3 provides additional important 

information on characteristics of retired workers represented by these illustrations for the year 

2016.

The first several columns of Table B1 compare the initial scheduled benefit levels, assuming 

retirement at age 65 under the provisions of the proposal, to scheduled current-law benefit levels. 

The scheduled benefit amounts shown in this table under the proposal are higher than under 

current law by 0.1 percent in 2040 and 2060, and by 0.2 percent in 2090, for all workers except 

the twice maximum-current-law-AIME worker. For the twice current-law-AIME worker, there 

are additional increases shown in years 2040, 2060, and 2090, reflecting the additional earnings 

subject to payroll tax above the current-law taxable maximum and credited for benefit purposes. 

Because the other benefit enhancements are temporary, starting in 2022 and ending by 2028, 

they are not shown in the years included in this table. The final two columns of this table show 

the level of scheduled benefits under the proposal as a percentage of current-law scheduled 

benefits and the level of payable benefits under the proposal as a percentage of current-law 

payable benefits.

Table B2 provides two comparisons: (1) the percentage change in scheduled benefit levels at 

ages 65, 75, 85, and 95 under the proposal compared to scheduled benefits under current law; 

and (2) the percentage change in payable benefit levels at the same four ages under the proposal 

compared to payable benefits under current law. Each comparison assumes retirement and start 

of benefit receipt at age 65. Table B2 shows similar increases in benefits as shown in table B1. 

Because most of the benefit enhancements are temporary, they are not shown in the years 

included in this table. Payable benefit levels increase under the provisions of the proposal in 

relation to current-law payable benefit levels.
Page 15 – The Honorable John Larson

The hypothetical workers represented in these tables reflect average career-earnings patterns of 

workers who started receiving retirement benefits under the Social Security program in recent 

years. The tables subdivide workers with very-low, low, and medium career-average earnings 

levels by their numbers of years of non-zero earnings.

Table B3 provides information helpful in interpreting the benefit illustrations in Tables B1 and 

B2. Percentages in Table B3 are based on tabulations from a 10-percent sample of newly-entitled 

retired workers in 2016. Table B3 displays the percentages of these newly-entitled retired

workers in 2016 that are closest to each of the illustrative examples and are:

1) “Dually Entitled”, meaning they received a higher spouse or widow(er) benefit based on 

the career earnings of their husband or wife,

2) “WEP” (Windfall Elimination Provision), meaning that they received a reduced benefit 

due to having a pension based on earnings that were not covered under the OASDI 

program (primarily certain government workers), and they had less than 30 years of 

substantial earnings that were taxable under the OASDI program,

3) “Foreign Born”, meaning that they entered the Social Security coverage area after birth 

(and generally after entering working ages), and

4) “All Others”, meaning they had none of the three characteristics listed above.

The extent to which retired-worker beneficiaries represented by each of the illustrative examples 

have any of the characteristics listed above (dually entitled, WEP, foreign born) is important 

because such individuals are less dependent on the OASDI benefit that relates to their own 

career-average earnings level. It should be noted that the distributions shown in Table B3 for 

retirees in 2016 will be changing somewhat for beneficiaries who become entitled as retiredworker beneficiaries in the future.

Payroll Tax Effects

Table T compares the scheduled payroll tax levels under the provisions of the proposal to 

scheduled current-law payroll tax levels. Under the proposal, the 12.4 percent payroll tax would 

apply to annual earnings in excess of $400,000 starting in 2022. As a result, Table T shows that 

the example worker with earnings at twice the current-law taxable maximum in 2060 and later 

would have payroll tax liability increased by 100 percent. In addition, there would be effects on 

earnings (and therefore payroll taxes paid) due to the assumed behavioral response by employees 

and employers; these effects are not included in this table.

Detailed Tables Containing Annual and Summary Projections

Enclosed with this letter are tables 1, 1a, 1b, 1b.n, 1c, 1d, and 1d.n, which provide annual and 

summary projections for the proposal.

Trust Fund Operations

Table 1 provides projections of the financial operations of the OASDI program under the 

proposal and shows that the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds would be able to pay scheduled 

benefits in full and on time until 2038 assuming enactment of the 14 provisions. The year in 
Page 16 – The Honorable John Larson

which the combined reserves of the OASI and DI Trust Funds are projected to become depleted 

would change from 2034 under current law to 2038 under the proposal. Even after depletion of 

the trust fund reserves, however, the actuarial status of the program would be improved as 

continuing income would be sufficient to pay a higher percentage of scheduled benefits than 

under current law. Under current law, 78 percent of scheduled benefits are projected to be 

payable at trust fund reserve depletion in 2034, declining to 74 percent payable by 2095. Under 

this proposal, 100 percent of the proposed (higher) scheduled benefits would be fully payable 

through 2037, and 87 percent would be payable at trust fund reserve depletion in 2038, 

increasing slightly to 88 percent payable by 2095.

The table shows the annual cost and income rates, annual balances, and trust fund ratios 

(reserves as percent of annual program cost) for OASDI, as well as the change from current law 

in these cost rates, income rates, and annual balances. Included at the bottom of this table are 

summarized rates for the 75-year (long-range) period.

For 2022 through 2026, during the period of temporary benefit enhancements, the proposal 

reduces the annual balance (non-interest income minus program cost). The annual balance is 

reduced by 0.3 percent of current-law payroll for 2022, with increasing reductions to 0.4 percent 

for 2026. The annual balance then increases by 1.1 percent in 2027 to 2.3 percent in 2050, and 

stays relatively stable through 2095.

Under the proposal, the annual deficit (negative annual balance) increases from 1.7 percent of 

current-law payroll for 2022 to 2.5 percent for 2026, primarily reflecting the effect of the 

temporary benefit enhancements. The annual deficit declines to 1.2 percent for 2027, and then 

increases to 2.0 percent in 2038. After 2036, the annual deficit declines to 1.5 percent for 2050, 

increases to 2.7 percent for 2078, and finally declines to 2.1 percent for 2095. Under current law, 

the projected annual deficit for 2095 is 4.3 percent of payroll.

The actuarial balance for the OASDI program over the 75-year projection period is improved by 

1.83 percent of taxable payroll, from an actuarial deficit of 3.54 percent of payroll under current 

law to an actuarial deficit of 1.71 percent of taxable payroll under the proposal.

Program Transfers and Trust Fund Reserves

Column 4 of Table 1a provides a projection of the level of reserves for the combined OASI and 

DI Trust Funds, assuming enactment of the 14 Social Security provisions of the proposal. These 

trust fund reserve amounts are expressed in present value dollars discounted to January 1, 2021. 

The table indicates that the provisions include no new specified transfers of general revenue to 

the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds. For purpose of comparison, the OASI and DI Trust 

Fund reserves, expressed in present value dollars, are also shown for the current-law Social 

Security program both without and with the added proposal general fund transfers (zero in this 

case) in columns 6 and 7.

Note that negative values in columns 6 and 7 represent the “unfunded obligation” for the 

program through the year. The unfunded obligation is the present value of the shortfall of 

revenue needed to pay full scheduled benefits on a timely basis from the date of trust fund 

reserve depletion through the end of the indicated year. Gross Domestic Product (GDP),
Page 17 – The Honorable John Larson

expressed in present value dollars, is shown in column 5 for comparison with other values in the 

table.

Effect of the Social Security Provisions on the Federal Budget

Table 1b shows the projected effect, in present value discounted dollars, on the federal budget 

(unified-budget and on-budget) annual cash flows and balances, assuming enactment of the 14

Social Security provisions of the proposal. Our analysis provided in these tables does not reflect 

the effects on these programs under the on-budget operations of the federal government. Table 

1b.n provides the estimated nominal dollar effect of enactment of the proposal on annual budget 

balances for years 2021 through 2031. All values in these tables represent the amount of change 

from the level projected under current law. In addition, changes reflect the budget scoring 

convention that presumes benefits, not payable under the law after depletion of trust fund 

reserves, would still be paid using revenue provided from the General Fund of the Treasury. The 

reader should be cautioned that this presumption of payment of benefits beyond the resources of 

the trust funds is prohibited under current law and is also inconsistent with all past experience 

under the Social Security program.

Column 1 of Table 1b shows the added proposal general fund transfers (zero for this proposal).

Column 2 shows the net changes in OASDI cash flow from all provisions of the proposal.

We project the net effect of the proposal on unified budget cash flow (column 3) to be negative 

in years 2022 through 2026 because the cost of the temporary benefit enhancements exceeds 

added revenue, and positive in years 2027 and later, due to the revenue from the payroll tax 

newly applied to earnings above $400,000 in sections 201 and 202.

Column 4 of Table 1b indicates that the effect of implementing the proposal would be a 

reduction of the theoretical federal debt held by the public, reaching about $10.8 trillion in 

present value at the end of the 75-year projection period. Column 5 provides the projected effect 

of the proposal on the annual unified budget balances, including both the cash flow effect in 

column 3 and the additional interest on the accumulated debt in column 4. Columns 6 and 7 

indicate that the provisions of this proposal would have no expected direct effects on the onbudget cash flow, or on the total federal debt, in the future.

It is important to note that we base these estimates on the intermediate assumptions of the 2021

Trustees Report, so these estimates are not consistent with estimates made by the Office of 

Management and Budget or the Congressional Budget Office based on their assumptions. In 

particular, all present values are discounted using trust fund yield assumptions under the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2021 Trustees Report.

Annual Trust Fund Operations as a Percent of GDP

Table 1c provides annual cost, annual expenditures (amount that would be payable), and annual 

tax income for the OASDI program expressed as a percentage of GDP for both current law and 

assuming enactment of the 14 Social Security provisions of the proposal. Showing the annual 

trust fund cash flows as a percent of GDP provides an additional perspective on these trust fund 

operations in relation to the total value of goods and services produced in the United States. The 
Page 18 – The Honorable John Larson

relationship between income and cost is similar when expressed as a percent of GDP to that 

when expressed as a percent of taxable payroll (Table 1).

Effects on Trust Fund Reserves and Unfunded Obligations

Table 1d provides estimates of the changes in trust fund reserves and unfunded obligations on an

annual basis, expressed in present value dollars discounted to January 1, 2021. Table 1d.n

provides the same estimates, expressed in nominal dollars, for years 2021 through 2031.

For the 75-year (long-range) period as a whole, the current-law unfunded obligation of $19.8 at 

the end of 2095 reduces to an unfunded obligation of $9.0 trillion. This change of $10.8 trillion 

results from:

• An $11.8 trillion net increase in revenue (column 2), primarily from additional payroll 

tax revenue due to eliminating the taxable maximum, minus

• A $1.0 trillion net increase in cost (column 3), primarily from the 13 mostly temporary 

benefit enhancement provisions in Sections 101 through 113, and also from the 

additional benefits from earnings taxed above the current-law taxable maximum and 

the specified AWI increases in Sections 201 and 202.

We hope these estimates are helpful. Please let me know if we may provide further assistance.

Sincerely,

 Stephen C. Goss, ASA, MAAA

Chief Actuary

Enclosures
Table A—Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of the

“Social Security 2100: A Sacred Trust” (117th Congress), 

Introduced by Chairman Larson

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

for 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

Section 101) Increase the first PIA formula factor from 90 

percent to 93 percent for all beneficiaries with benefit 

entitlement for months in 2022 through 2026. Revert to 

current-law benefit levels for January 2027 and later ................ -0.02 3

Section 102) Use the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly 

(CPI-E) rather than the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage 

Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) to temporarily 

calculate the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), effective for 

December 2022 through December 2026 COLAs. We estimate 

this new computation would increase the annual COLA by 

about 0.2 percentage point, on average. Revert to current-law 

benefit levels for January 2028 and later.................................... -0.01 3

Section 103) Increase the special minimum PIA temporarily 

for workers who become newly eligible for retirement or 

disability benefits or die in 2022 through 2026. For those who 

become newly eligible or die in 2022 with 30 or more years of 

coverage (YOCs), set the minimum PIA equal to 125 percent 

of the 2021 Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) 

monthly poverty level. For those with under 30 YOCs, the 

PIA per YOC in excess of 10 YOCs is 125 percent of this 

poverty level calculation, divided by 20. For workers who 

become newly eligible or die in 2023 through 2026, index the 

initial PIA per YOC by growth in the national average wage 

index (AWI). A YOC is defined as a year in which 4 quarters 

of coverage are earned. The 30 and 10 YOC levels apply for

all workers, including those who die or become disabled under 

age 62. Revert to current-law benefit levels for January 2027 

and later........................................................................................ 3 3

Section 104) Replace the current-law thresholds for federal 

income taxation of OASDI benefits with a single set of 

thresholds at $35,000 for single filers and $50,000 for joint 

filers, effective for tax years 2022 through 2026. Taxation of 

benefits revenues transferred to the Hospital Insurance (HI) 

Trust Fund would be the same for these tax years as if the 

current-law computation applied. Revert to current-law 

specifications for tax years 2027 and later.................................. -0.01 3
Table A—Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of the

“Social Security 2100: A Sacred Trust” (117th Congress), 

Introduced by Chairman Larson

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

for 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

Section 105) Establish an alternative benefit for surviving 

spouses. The alternative benefit would equal 75 percent of the 

sum of the survivor’s own worker benefit and the deceased 

worker’s PIA (including any actuarial reductions or delayed 

retirement credits (DRC)). If the deceased worker died before 

becoming entitled, use the age 62 actuarial reduction if 

deceased before age 62, or the applicable actuarial 

reduction/DRC for entitlement at the age of death if deceased 

after 62. The alternative benefit would not exceed the PIA of 

a hypothetical earner who earns the AWI every year, and who 

becomes eligible for retired-worker benefits in the same year 

in which the deceased worker became entitled to worker 

benefits or died (if before entitlement). The alternative benefit 

would be paid only if more than the current-law benefit. This 

benefit would be available temporarily for surviving spouses 

with benefit entitlement for months in 2022 through 2026. 

Revert to current law benefit levels for January 2027 and later. -0.01 3

Section 106) Provide a 5-percent uniform PIA increase starting 

with the 20th calendar year after the calendar year of initial 

eligibility, temporarily for 2022 through 2026. The uniform 

PIA increase is phased in at 1 percent per year from the 16th

calendar year through the 20th calendar year after the calendar 

year of initial eligibility. The uniform PIA increase is equal to 

the specified percent of the PIA of a worker who becomes 

newly eligible in the same year and had career-average 

earnings (AIME) equal to the AWI for the second year prior to 

initial eligibility. Auxiliary beneficiaries receive benefit 

enhancement based on PIA of governing worker. Revert to 

current law benefit levels for January 2027 and later................. -0.01 3
Table A—Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of the

“Social Security 2100: A Sacred Trust” (117th Congress), 

Introduced by Chairman Larson

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

for 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

Section 107) For workers caring for a child under age 12 or for

a dependent relative (a chronically dependent individual

unable to perform at least two of five activities of daily living), 

provide a temporary “earnings credit” on their record to be 

used for computation of their benefit. If the individual has no 

earnings in the month, the earnings credit is one-half of the

AWI level for the second prior calendar year. If the worker 

has earnings less than the AWI of the second prior calendar 

year, the earnings credit is one-half of the AWI minus one-half 

of the earnings before the credit. Effective for all beneficiaries 

with benefit entitlement for months in 2022 through 2026,

with all past caregiving years eligible to be counted. A limit 

of five caregiving credit years applies, with the most 

advantageous five years of caregiving used for benefit 

purposes. Revert to current law benefit levels for January

2027 and later............................................................................... -0.03 3

Section 108) Eliminate the DI waiting period after enactment 

of the proposal, effective for those who become newly entitled 

in 2022 through 2026. Revert to current law for new 

entitlements in January 2027 and later. .................................... -0.01 3

Section 109) End the DI benefit cliff temporarily for 

beneficiaries with earnings after initial disability entitlement

for months in 2022 through 2026. In this period, use a $1-for-

$2 offset for earnings above the blind substantial gainful 

activity (SGA) level. Revert to current law for years 2027 and 

later............................................................................................... 3 3

Section 110) Temporarily cease applying the Windfall 

Elimination Provision and the Government Pension Offset for 

all beneficiaries with benefit entitlement for months in 2022 

through 2026. Revert to current-law benefit levels for January 

2027 and later............................................................................... -0.01 3

Section 111) Provide benefits for full-time and part-time 

students who are children of disabled, retired, or deceased 

workers until attainment of age 26, for all eligible children 

with benefit entitlement for months in 2022 through 2026. 

Revert to current-law benefit levels for January 2027 and later. -0.01 3
Table A—Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of the

“Social Security 2100: A Sacred Trust” (117th Congress), 

Introduced by Chairman Larson

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

for 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

Section 112) Provide benefits to children who are in the 

custody of a grandparent or other eligible relative for at least 

12 months and are receiving at least one-half of their financial 

support from the relative. Effective for all eligible children 

with benefit entitlement for months in 2022 through 2026. 

Revert to current-law benefit criteria for January 2027 and 

later............................................................................................... 3 3

Section 113) For any year where the AWI as computed would 

be lower than the AWI for any previous year, use the largest 

AWI from among all previous years for the purpose of 

computing the average indexed monthly earnings (AIME) and 

the PIA for all beneficiaries who become initially eligible for 

benefits two years after such year. This provision would apply 

for AWI computed for all years 2021 and later.......................... 3 3

Section 201 and Section 202) Apply the combined OASDI 

payroll tax rate on covered earnings above $400,000 paid in 

2022 and later, and tax all covered earnings once the currentlaw taxable maximum exceeds $400,000. Increase the 

computed level of the AWI for years after 2021 by amounts 

ranging from 1.4% for 2022 to 2.2% for 2050 and later. Credit 

the additional earnings taxed for benefit purposes by: (a) 

calculating a second average indexed monthly earnings 

(“AIME+”) reflecting only earnings taxed above the currentlaw taxable maximum, (b) applying a 1 percent factor on this 

newly computed “AIME+” to develop a second component of 

the PIA, and (c) adding this second component to the currentlaw PIA........................................................................................ 1.95 2.28

Total for all provisions, including interaction..................... 1.83 2.28

1Under current law, the estimated long-range OASDI actuarial balance is -3.54 percent of taxable payroll. 2Under current law, the estimated 75th year annual balance is -4.34 percent of taxable payroll.

3Negligible; that is, between -0.005 and 0.005 percent of taxable payroll. 

Notes: All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2021 OASDI Trustees Report. 

 Estimates of individual provisions appear on a stand-alone basis relative to current law, unless otherwise stated.

Social Security Administration

Office of the Chief Actuary

October 26, 2021
Proposal Proposal

Year Scheduled to Payable to

Attain Benefit Minimum Current Law Current Law

Age 65 (Wage-Indexed (CPI-Indexed COLA5 Formula6 Benefit7 Total Scheduled Payable

2021 Dollars) 2021 Dollars)

 

2021 815 815 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 800 1,009 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 114

2060 803 1,259 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 119

2090 803 1,758 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 100 119

 

2021 815 815 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 800 1,009 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 114

2060 803 1,259 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 119

2090 803 1,758 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 100 119

 

2021 815 815 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 800 1,009 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 114

2060 803 1,259 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 119

2090 803 1,758 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 100 119

2021 1,067 1,067 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 1,048 1,321 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 114

2060 1,051 1,647 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 119

2090 1,051 2,302 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 100 119

2021 1,067 1,067 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 1,048 1,321 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 114

2060 1,051 1,647 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 119

2090 1,051 2,302 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 100 119

2021 1,067 1,067 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 1,048 1,321 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 114

2060 1,051 1,647 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 119

2090 1,051 2,302 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 100 119

2021 1,759 1,759 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 1,727 2,178 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 114

2060 1,733 2,716 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 119

2090 1,734 3,795 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 100 119

2021 1,759 1,759 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 1,727 2,178 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 114

2060 1,733 2,716 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 119

2090 1,734 3,795 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 100 119

2021 2,329 2,329 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 2,286 2,882 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 114

2060 2,294 3,596 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 119

2090 2,295 5,024 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 100 119

2021 2,841 2,841 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 2,800 3,530 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 114

2060 2,802 4,392 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 119

2090 2,802 6,135 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 100 119

2021 2,841 2,841 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 2,800 3,530 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.4 100 114

2060 2,802 4,392 0.0 2.2 0.0 2.2 102 121

2090 2,802 6,135 0.0 3.6 0.0 3.6 104 123

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2021 Trustees Report.

Table B1. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Becoming Newly Entitled at age 65 

"Social Security 2100: A Sacred Trust," Introduced by Chairman Larson

Benefit Ratios

Scheduled Benefit Level Percent Change at age 65

Current Law Scheduled

Monthly Benefits4

(Percent change) (Percents)

 Very-Low-AIME ($14,766 for 20211

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (11.5% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($14,766 for 20211) 20-Year Scaled Earner (5.0% of Retirees2)

Of the 7.2 percent of retirees with current-law AIME closest to the Maximum-Current-Law level, about 33 percent (or 2.4 percent of all retirees) would have an AIME 

closer to the Twice Maximum-Current-Law level if their earnings were not limited by annual taxable maximums.

 Very-Low-AIME ($14,766 for 20211) 14-Year Scaled Earner (3.4% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($26,579 for 20211

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (18.8% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($26,579 for 20211) 30-Year Scaled Earner (3.6% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($26,579 for 20211) 20-Year Scaled Earner (1.3% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($59,065 for 20211) 44-Year Scaled Earner (27.6% of Retirees2

)

 Medium-AIME ($59,065 for 20211) 30-Year Scaled Earner (1.7% of Retirees2)

 High-AIME ($94,503 for 20211) 44-Year Scaled Earner (19.8% of Retirees2)

 Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($142,800 for 20211) 43-Year Steady Earner (7.2% of Retirees2

)

 Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($285,600 for 20211) 43-Year Steady Earner3

Average of highest 35 years of taxable earnings wage indexed to 2021. For the Maximum and Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME workers, we show one times and two 

times the 2021 taxable maximum, respectively.

Projected percent of newly entitled retired worker beneficiaries in 2050 with current-law AIME levels and years of covered earnings closest to AIME levels and close to 

years of covered earnings shown. See details in Note 1 on table B3.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration October 26, 2021

After the trust fund reserves deplete under current law continuing taxes are expected to be enough to pay about three fourths of scheduled benefits.

Starting Dec 2022 through Dec 2026, compute the COLA using increases in the CPI-E, producing 0.2% higher annual COLAs on average. Beginning in Jan 2028, revert 

back to current-law benefit levels.

For 2022-26, for all eligible beneficiaries, increase the 90 percent PIA factor to 93 percent. Beginning in 2027, revert back to current-law benefit levels. Starting in 2022, 

apply the OASDI payroll tax rate on earnings above $400,000, and tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $400,000. Increase the level of the 

computed AWI after 2021 by amounts ranging from 1.4% for 2022 to 2.2% for 2050 and later. Credit the additional earnings for benefit purposes by: (a) calculating a 

second average indexed monthly earnings ("AIME+") reflecting only earnings taxed above the current law taxable maximum, (b) applying a 1 percent factor on this newly 

computed "AIME+" to develop a second component of the PIA, and (c) adding this second PIA component to the first PIA component. 

For beneficiaries who become newly eligible or die in 2022, increase the minimum PIA such that a worker with 30/10 years of coverage would receive an initial PIA of at 

least 125%/0% of the monthly HHS poverty level for 2021. For beneficiaries who become newly eligible or die after 2022, the initial minimum PIA level would be 

adjusted by the AWI. Beginning in 2027, revert to current-law benefit levels. The Minimum Benefit percent change is calculated after all other provisions, so that the 

Proposal Benefit Amount is at least the Minimum Benefit, where applicable.

This analysis reflects only the provisions of the proposal identified in this table and described in the footnotes above.
Year 

Attain

Age 65 Age 65 Age 75 Age 855 Age 955 Age 65 Age 75 Age 855 Age 955

2021 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 114.3 118.6

2040 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 114.0 118.7 118.6 118.6

2060 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 118.7 118.6 118.6 118.6

2090 100.2 100.2 100.2 100.2 118.7 118.8 4 4

2021 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 114.3 118.6

2040 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 114.0 118.7 118.6 118.6

2060 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 118.7 118.6 118.6 118.6

2090 100.2 100.2 100.2 100.2 118.7 118.8 4 4

2021 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 114.3 118.6

2040 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 114.0 118.7 118.6 118.6

2060 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 118.7 118.6 118.6 118.6

2090 100.2 100.2 100.2 100.2 118.7 118.8 4 4

2021 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 114.3 118.6

2040 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 114.0 118.7 118.6 118.6

2060 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 118.7 118.6 118.6 118.6

2090 100.2 100.2 100.2 100.2 118.7 118.8 4 4

2021 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 114.3 118.6

2040 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 114.0 118.7 118.6 118.6

2060 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 118.7 118.6 118.6 118.6

2090 100.2 100.2 100.2 100.2 118.7 118.8 4 4

2021 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 114.3 118.6

2040 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 114.0 118.7 118.6 118.6

2060 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 118.7 118.6 118.6 118.6

2090 100.2 100.2 100.2 100.2 118.7 118.8 4 4

2021 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 114.3 118.6

2040 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 114.0 118.7 118.6 118.6

2060 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 118.7 118.6 118.6 118.6

2090 100.2 100.2 100.2 100.2 118.8 118.8 4 4

2021 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 114.3 118.6

2040 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 114.0 118.7 118.6 118.6

2060 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 118.7 118.6 118.6 118.6

2090 100.2 100.2 100.2 100.2 118.8 118.8 4 4

2021 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 114.3 118.6

2040 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 114.0 118.7 118.6 118.6

2060 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 118.7 118.6 118.6 118.6

2090 100.2 100.2 100.2 100.2 118.8 118.8 4 4

2021 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 114.3 118.6

2040 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 114.0 118.7 118.7 118.6

2060 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 118.7 118.6 118.6 118.6

2090 100.2 100.2 100.2 100.2 118.7 118.8 4 4

2021 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 114.3 118.6

2040 100.4 100.4 100.4 100.4 114.4 119.0 119.0 119.0

2060 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.2 121.1 121.1 121.1 121.1

2090 103.6 103.6 103.6 103.6 122.8 122.8 4 4

1

2

3

4

5

Note:

-

-

-

- This analysis reflects only the provisions of the proposal identified in Table B1 and described in the notes above.

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2021 Trustees Report.

 Low-AIME ($26,579 for 20211) 44-Year Scaled Earner (18.8% of Retirees2)

Table B2. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Becoming Newly Entitled age 65 

"Social Security 2100: A Sacred Trust," Introduced by Chairman Larson

Proposal Scheduled Benefit as Percent of Proposal Payable Benefit as Percent of 

Current Law Scheduled Benefit Current Law Payable Benefit

(Percent)

 Very-Low-AIME ($14,766 for 20211

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (11.5% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($14,766 for 20211) 20-Year Scaled Earner (5.0% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($14,766 for 20211) 14-Year Scaled Earner (3.4% of Retirees2)

Increase the PIA by a percent of a steady-AWI worker's PIA beginning at 1 percent for the 16th calendar year after the year of initial eligibility, increasing to 5 

percent for the 20th and later year after the year of initial eligibility, temporarily for 2022-26. Beginning in 2027, revert back to current-law benefit levels.

 Low-AIME ($26,579 for 20211) 30-Year Scaled Earner (3.6% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($26,579 for 20211) 20-Year Scaled Earner (1.3% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($59,065 for 20211) 44-Year Scaled Earner (27.6% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($59,065 for 20211) 30-Year Scaled Earner (1.7% of Retirees2)

 High-AIME ($94,503 for 20211) 44-Year Scaled Earner (19.8% of Retirees2)

 Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($142,800 for 20211) 43-Year Steady Earner (7.2% of Retirees2

)

 Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($285,600 for 20211) 43-Year Steady Earner3

Average of highest 35 years of taxable earnings wage indexed to 2021. For the Maximum and Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME workers, we show one times and 

two times the 2021 taxable maximum, respectively.

Projected percent of newly entitled retired worker beneficiaries in 2050 with current-law AIME levels and years of covered earnings closest to AIME levels and 

close to years of covered earnings shown. See details in Note 1 on table B3.

Of the 7.2 percent of retirees with current-law AIME closest to the Maximum-Current-Law level, about 33 percent (or 2.4 percent of all retirees) would have an 

AIME closer to the Twice Maximum-Current-Law level if their earnings were not limited by annual taxable maximums.

The proposal payable benefit as percent of current law payable benefit is not presented for years of payment beyond the 75-year projection period.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration October 26, 2021

Starting Dec 2022 through Dec 2026, compute the COLA using increases in the CPI-E, producing 0.2% higher annual COLAs on average. Beginning in Jan 2028, 

revert back to current-law benefit levels.

For 2022-26, for all eligible beneficiaries, increase the 90 percent PIA factor to 93 percent. Beginning in 2027, revert back to current-law benefit levels. Starting 

in 2022, apply the OASDI payroll tax rate on earnings above $400,000, and tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $400,000. Increase the 

level of the computed AWI after 2021 by amounts ranging from 1.4% for 2022 to 2.2% for 2050 and later. Credit the additional earnings for benefit purposes by: (a) 

calculating a second average indexed monthly earnings ("AIME+") reflecting only earnings taxed above the current law taxable maximum, (b) applying a 1 percent 

factor on this newly computed "AIME+" to develop a second component of the PIA, and (c) adding this second PIA component to the first PIA component. 

For beneficiaries who become newly eligible or die in 2022, increase the minimum PIA such that a worker with 30/10 years of coverage would receive an initial 

PIA of at least 125%/0% of the monthly HHS poverty level for 2021. For beneficiaries who become newly eligible or die after 2022, the initial minimum PIA level 

would be adjusted by the AWI. Beginning in 2027, revert to current-law benefit levels.
Category 

(AIME and Years of Covered Earnings Close to) Dually Entitled2 WEP3 Foreign Born All Others4

Very-Low-AIME ($11,592 for 20161):

30-Year Scaled Earner (7.9% of Retirees) 27 8 14 53

20-Year Scaled Earner (6.0% of Retirees) 27 16 27 35

14-Year Scaled Earner (5.2% of Retirees) 21 20 52 19

Low-AIME ($20,856 for 20161):

44-Year Scaled Earner (13.0% of Retirees) 8 2 7 83

30-Year Scaled Earner (6.8% of Retirees) 13 8 25 56

20-Year Scaled Earner (2.4% of Retirees) 9 21 47 29

Medium-AIME ($46,368 for 20161):

44-Year Scaled Earner (25.8% of Retirees) 1 1 6 92

30-Year Scaled Earner (3.3% of Retirees) 1 12 37 53

High-AIME ($74,184 for 20161):

44-Year Scaled Earner (20.3% of Retirees) 0 1 8 91

Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($118,500 for 20161):

Steady Earner (9.3% of Retirees) 0 0 9 91

1

2

3

4 Not foreign born, not dually entitled by the end of 2018, and not reduced by WEP by the end of 2018.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration June 18, 2020

Table B3. Characteristics of Retired Worker Beneficiaries Becoming Newly Entitled in 2016

Percent of Beneficiaries Within Each Category That Are:

Note 1: Table B3 displays certain characteristics of newly-entitled retired worker beneficiaries in 2016 who are similar to the illustrative hypothetical workers shown in 

tables B1 and B2. The categories shown here include those workers with AIME closest to the earnings level shown, and with years of covered earnings close to the number 

shown. In particular: 

- For the Very-Low-AIME category, 

 - workers included in the "30-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 25+ years of covered earnings; 

 - workers included in the "20-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 18-24 years of covered earnings; 

 - workers included in the "14-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have less than 18 years of covered earnings.

- For the Low-AIME category, 

 - workers included in the "44-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 35+ years of covered earnings; 

 - workers included in the "30-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 25-34 years of covered earnings; 

 - workers included in the "20-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have less than 25 years of covered earnings.

- For the Medium-AIME category, 

 - workers included in the "44-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 35+ years of covered earnings; 

 - workers included in the "30-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have less than 35 years of covered earnings.

- Workers included in the High-AIME "44-Year Scaled Earner" category have all numbers of years of covered earnings.

- Workers included in the Maximum-Current-Law-AIME "Steady Earner" category have all numbers of years of covered earnings.

Note 2: The percentages in each category are based on tabulations of a 10-percent sample of newly entitled retired-worker beneficiaries in 2016 (288,627 records). We can 

be 95 percent confident that each of the values shown above is within 1.4 percentage points of the value we would find using 100 percent of the retirees in 2016.

Note 3: The sum of the percentages for each category (sum across rows) could be greater than 100 percent because some beneficiaries can be classified in more than one of 

the following groups: dually entitled, WEP, and foreign born. 

Average of highest 35 years of taxable earnings wage indexed to 2016.

Values in this column are percentages of retired workers newly entitled in 2016 who were also entitled to a higher benefit based on someone else’s account by the end of 

2018. The percentage that will ever become dually entitled is higher for most categories, because some retired workers newly entitled in 2016 will first become dually 

entitled after 2018.

Values in this column are percentages of retired workers newly entitled in 2016 who had their benefit reduced based on receipt of a pension from government 

employment under the windfall elimination provision (WEP) by the end of 2018. The percentage that will ever be reduced by WEP is higher for each category, because 

some retired workers newly entitled in 2016 will first receive a government pension after 2018.
Proposal Scheduled Payroll Taxes

Earnings Taxable Percent of Current Law

in Year (Wage-Indexed (CPI-Indexed Maximum2

2021 Dollars) 2021 Dollars) (Percents)

2021 153 153 0.0 100

2040 153 192 0.0 100

2060 153 239 0.0 100

2090 153 334 0.0 100

2021 275 275 0.0 100

2040 275 346 0.0 100

2060 275 431 0.0 100

2090 275 601 0.0 100

2021 610 610 0.0 100

2040 610 769 0.0 100

2060 610 957 0.0 100

2090 610 1,336 0.0 100

2021 977 977 0.0 100

2040 977 1,231 0.0 100

2060 977 1,531 0.0 100

2090 977 2,138 0.0 100

2021 1,476 1,476 0.0 100

2040 1,476 1,860 0.0 100

2060 1,476 2,313 0.0 100

2090 1,476 3,230 0.0 100

2021 1,476 1,476 0.0 100

2040 1,476 1,860 61.0 161

2060 1,476 2,313 100.0 200

2090 1,476 3,230 100.0 200

1

2

This analysis reflects only the provisions of the proposal identified in this table and described in the footnotes above.

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2021 Trustees Report.

99th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($285,600 in 2021) Twice Current-Law Maximum Earnings Level

Table T. Changes in Payroll Tax Contributions (Employee + Employer) for Workers with OASDI Covered Earnings in the Year

"Social Security 2100: A Sacred Trust," Introduced by Chairman Larson

Scheduled Payroll Taxes Percent Change

Current Law Scheduled

Monthly Total Payroll Taxes

(Percent change) 

26th Percentile Earner1

 in Year ($14,766 in 2021)

40th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($26,579 in 2021)

70th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($59,065 in 2021)

86th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($94,503 in 2021)

94th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($142,800 in 2021) Current-Law Maximum Earnings Level

Percentile among all workers with any covered earnings in 2021 (including earnings both above and below the current-law taxable maximum earnings level). We include those 

who will die or become disabled before reaching retirement age, and those who will not earn enough in their career to become fully insured for retired worker benefits. Thus, 

these percentiles are not directly comparable to the percentages in the B tables, which are based on lifetime earnings, and include only those who survive and become eligible for 

retirement benefits.

Apply the OASDI payroll tax rate on covered earnings above $400,000 starting in 2022, and tax all covered earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $400,000. In 

addition, there would be effects on earnings (and therefore payroll taxes paid) due to the assumed behavioral response by employees and employers.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration October 26, 2021
Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

"Social Security 2100: A Sacred Trust," Introduced by Chairman Larson

Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2021 14.11 12.31 -1.81 253 0.00 0.00 0.00

2022 15.66 13.98 -1.67 211 1.35 1.06 -0.30

2023 15.85 14.05 -1.80 193 1.42 1.13 -0.29

2024 16.13 14.10 -2.03 174 1.49 1.15 -0.34

2025 16.41 14.14 -2.27 156 1.55 1.18 -0.37

2026 16.72 14.26 -2.46 137 1.61 1.18 -0.43

2027 15.56 14.35 -1.21 129 0.20 1.25 1.05

2028 15.66 14.40 -1.25 119 0.03 1.27 1.23

2029 15.89 14.46 -1.43 108 0.02 1.29 1.27

2030 16.13 14.51 -1.62 96 0.02 1.31 1.30

2031 16.30 14.56 -1.75 85 0.02 1.35 1.33

2032 16.45 14.61 -1.85 73 0.02 1.39 1.37

2033 16.58 14.66 -1.92 62 0.02 1.43 1.41

2034 16.68 14.71 -1.97 50 0.02 1.47 1.45

2035 16.75 14.75 -2.00 38 0.02 1.51 1.49

2036 16.82 14.80 -2.02 27 0.02 1.55 1.53

2037 16.88 14.85 -2.03 15 0.02 1.60 1.58

2038 16.93 14.91 -2.03 4 0.02 1.64 1.62

2039 16.97 14.96 -2.01 ---- 0.02 1.69 1.67

2040 17.00 15.01 -1.99 ---- 0.02 1.74 1.72

2041 17.04 15.07 -1.97 ---- 0.02 1.80 1.77

2042 17.06 15.13 -1.94 ---- 0.02 1.85 1.83

2043 17.07 15.18 -1.88 ---- 0.02 1.91 1.88

2044 17.07 15.24 -1.83 ---- 0.03 1.96 1.94

2045 17.08 15.30 -1.77 ---- 0.03 2.03 2.00

2046 17.09 15.37 -1.72 ---- 0.03 2.09 2.06

2047 17.11 15.44 -1.67 ---- 0.03 2.15 2.12

2048 17.13 15.51 -1.62 ---- 0.03 2.22 2.19

2049 17.15 15.58 -1.57 ---- 0.03 2.29 2.26

2050 17.17 15.62 -1.55 ---- 0.03 2.33 2.30

2051 17.20 15.63 -1.57 ---- 0.04 2.33 2.30

2052 17.23 15.63 -1.59 ---- 0.04 2.34 2.30

2053 17.26 15.64 -1.62 ---- 0.04 2.34 2.30

2054 17.29 15.64 -1.65 ---- 0.04 2.34 2.30

2055 17.34 15.64 -1.69 ---- 0.04 2.34 2.30

2056 17.38 15.65 -1.73 ---- 0.05 2.34 2.29

2057 17.43 15.66 -1.78 ---- 0.05 2.34 2.29

2058 17.49 15.66 -1.82 ---- 0.05 2.34 2.29

2059 17.54 15.67 -1.88 ---- 0.05 2.34 2.29

2060 17.60 15.67 -1.93 ---- 0.05 2.35 2.29

2061 17.66 15.68 -1.98 ---- 0.06 2.35 2.29

2062 17.71 15.68 -2.03 ---- 0.06 2.35 2.29

2063 17.76 15.69 -2.07 ---- 0.06 2.35 2.29

2064 17.81 15.69 -2.12 ---- 0.06 2.35 2.29

2065 17.87 15.70 -2.17 ---- 0.07 2.35 2.29

2066 17.92 15.71 -2.22 ---- 0.07 2.35 2.28

2067 17.97 15.71 -2.26 ---- 0.07 2.35 2.28

2068 18.03 15.72 -2.31 ---- 0.07 2.35 2.28

2069 18.09 15.72 -2.36 ---- 0.07 2.36 2.28

2070 18.14 15.73 -2.42 ---- 0.08 2.36 2.28

2071 18.20 15.73 -2.47 ---- 0.08 2.36 2.28

2072 18.25 15.74 -2.52 ---- 0.08 2.36 2.28

2073 18.31 15.74 -2.57 ---- 0.08 2.36 2.28

2074 18.36 15.75 -2.61 ---- 0.08 2.36 2.28

2075 18.40 15.75 -2.65 ---- 0.09 2.36 2.28

2076 18.44 15.76 -2.68 ---- 0.09 2.36 2.28

2077 18.46 15.76 -2.70 ---- 0.09 2.37 2.28

2078 18.47 15.76 -2.71 ---- 0.09 2.37 2.28

2079 18.46 15.76 -2.70 ---- 0.09 2.37 2.27

2080 18.45 15.76 -2.68 ---- 0.09 2.37 2.27

2081 18.42 15.76 -2.66 ---- 0.10 2.37 2.27

2082 18.39 15.76 -2.63 ---- 0.10 2.37 2.27

2083 18.35 15.76 -2.58 ---- 0.10 2.37 2.27

2084 18.30 15.76 -2.53 ---- 0.10 2.37 2.28

2085 18.24 15.76 -2.48 ---- 0.10 2.38 2.28

2086 18.18 15.76 -2.42 ---- 0.10 2.38 2.28

2087 18.11 15.76 -2.36 ---- 0.10 2.38 2.28

2088 18.04 15.75 -2.29 ---- 0.10 2.38 2.28

2089 17.97 15.75 -2.23 ---- 0.10 2.38 2.28

2090 17.92 15.75 -2.17 ---- 0.10 2.38 2.28

2091 17.87 15.74 -2.13 ---- 0.10 2.38 2.28

2092 17.84 15.74 -2.09 ---- 0.11 2.38 2.28

2093 17.82 15.74 -2.08 ---- 0.11 2.39 2.28

2094 17.81 15.75 -2.07 ---- 0.11 2.39 2.28

2095 17.81 15.75 -2.06 ---- 0.11 2.39 2.28

2096 17.81 15.75 -2.07 ---- 0.11 2.39 2.28

Summarized Rates: OASDI Summarized Rates: OASDI

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Year of reserve 

depletion1

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

2021 - 2095 17.48% 15.77% -1.71% 2038 0.16% 1.99% 1.83%

Office of the Chief Actuary

Note: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2021 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration 1

Under current law the year of combined Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. October 26, 2021

Proposal Change from Current Law

Expressed as a percentage of current-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of current-law

taxable payroll
Table 1a - General Fund Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Reserves, and Theoretical OASDI Reserves

"Social Security 2100: A Sacred Trust," Introduced by Chairman Larson

Percentage

of Payroll

Annual

Amounts

Accumulated as of 

End of Year

Gross Domestic 

Product

Without General

Fund Transfers

With Plan General

Fund Transfers

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,763.2 22,112.1 2,763.2 2,763.2

2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,625.3 22,884.7 2,649.7 2,649.7

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,472.5 23,424.2 2,521.2 2,521.2

2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,296.2 23,932.2 2,374.3 2,374.3

2025 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,094.7 24,474.3 2,206.2 2,206.2

2026 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,872.7 24,968.2 2,023.1 2,023.1

2027 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,761.9 25,396.4 1,815.0 1,815.0

2028 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,645.6 25,785.3 1,583.1 1,583.1

2029 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,510.9 26,128.5 1,327.8 1,327.8

2030 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,356.6 26,423.4 1,049.2 1,049.2

2031 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,189.3 26,659.4 753.2 753.2

2032 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,011.4 26,829.3 442.4 442.4

2033 0.0 0.0 0.0 826.2 26,946.7 119.9 119.9

2034 0.0 0.0 0.0 636.6 26,942.6 -210.5 -210.5

2035 0.0 0.0 0.0 445.4 26,815.2 -545.5 -545.5

2036 0.0 0.0 0.0 254.3 26,650.8 -883.4 -883.4

2037 0.0 0.0 0.0 63.9 26,469.4 -1,223.5 -1,223.5

2038 0.0 0.0 0.0 -124.7 26,280.4 -1,564.8 -1,564.8

2039 0.0 0.0 0.0 -310.3 26,088.4 -1,906.0 -1,906.0

2040 0.0 0.0 0.0 -491.6 25,892.5 -2,246.1 -2,246.1

2041 0.0 0.0 0.0 -669.8 25,694.8 -2,586.1 -2,586.1

2042 0.0 0.0 0.0 -843.2 25,504.0 -2,924.7 -2,924.7

2043 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,010.1 25,322.1 -3,260.3 -3,260.3

2044 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,170.7 25,143.2 -3,593.1 -3,593.1

2045 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,324.8 24,968.8 -3,923.1 -3,923.1

2046 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,472.9 24,793.0 -4,250.9 -4,250.9

2047 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,615.6 24,616.7 -4,577.3 -4,577.3

2048 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,753.0 24,443.0 -4,902.5 -4,902.5

2049 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,884.8 24,281.2 -5,226.4 -5,226.4

2050 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,013.9 24,123.1 -5,549.2 -5,549.2

2051 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,143.5 23,966.7 -5,871.2 -5,871.2

2052 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,274.2 23,812.6 -6,192.6 -6,192.6

2053 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,406.2 23,659.3 -6,513.9 -6,513.9

2054 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,539.8 23,508.3 -6,835.2 -6,835.2

2055 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,675.3 23,360.1 -7,157.0 -7,157.0

2056 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,813.1 23,212.6 -7,479.5 -7,479.5

2057 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,953.4 23,067.0 -7,803.1 -7,803.1

2058 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,096.5 22,921.4 -8,128.1 -8,128.1

2059 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,242.5 22,775.4 -8,454.4 -8,454.4

2060 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,391.4 22,628.3 -8,782.3 -8,782.3

2061 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,543.1 22,482.1 -9,111.5 -9,111.5

2062 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,697.4 22,336.3 -9,441.8 -9,441.8

2063 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,854.1 22,189.8 -9,773.1 -9,773.1

2064 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4,013.0 22,041.3 -10,105.2 -10,105.2

2065 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4,174.3 21,891.7 -10,438.1 -10,438.1

2066 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4,337.8 21,742.3 -10,771.9 -10,771.9

2067 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4,503.6 21,594.0 -11,106.5 -11,106.5

2068 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4,671.6 21,444.6 -11,441.9 -11,441.9

2069 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4,842.0 21,293.3 -11,778.2 -11,778.2

2070 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5,014.8 21,142.2 -12,115.6 -12,115.6

2071 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5,190.0 20,992.7 -12,453.9 -12,453.9

2072 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5,367.1 20,844.6 -12,792.8 -12,792.8

2073 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5,546.2 20,698.5 -13,132.3 -13,132.3

2074 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5,727.1 20,555.4 -13,472.3 -13,472.3

2075 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5,909.2 20,416.2 -13,812.2 -13,812.2

2076 0.0 0.0 0.0 -6,092.0 20,278.7 -14,151.5 -14,151.5

2077 0.0 0.0 0.0 -6,274.7 20,144.2 -14,489.4 -14,489.4

2078 0.0 0.0 0.0 -6,456.5 20,014.1 -14,825.2 -14,825.2

2079 0.0 0.0 0.0 -6,636.4 19,887.9 -15,158.1 -15,158.1

2080 0.0 0.0 0.0 -6,814.0 19,764.3 -15,487.5 -15,487.5

2081 0.0 0.0 0.0 -6,988.7 19,643.3 -15,812.9 -15,812.9

2082 0.0 0.0 0.0 -7,160.0 19,526.8 -16,133.8 -16,133.8

2083 0.0 0.0 0.0 -7,327.4 19,414.0 -16,449.9 -16,449.9

2084 0.0 0.0 0.0 -7,490.4 19,303.7 -16,760.5 -16,760.5

2085 0.0 0.0 0.0 -7,648.8 19,195.8 -17,065.6 -17,065.6

2086 0.0 0.0 0.0 -7,802.4 19,090.3 -17,364.9 -17,364.9

2087 0.0 0.0 0.0 -7,950.9 18,986.3 -17,658.2 -17,658.2

2088 0.0 0.0 0.0 -8,094.1 18,882.3 -17,945.4 -17,945.4

2089 0.0 0.0 0.0 -8,232.5 18,778.1 -18,226.9 -18,226.9

2090 0.0 0.0 0.0 -8,366.7 18,675.2 -18,503.3 -18,503.3

2091 0.0 0.0 0.0 -8,497.3 18,572.5 -18,775.2 -18,775.2

2092 0.0 0.0 0.0 -8,625.1 18,469.3 -19,043.5 -19,043.5

2093 0.0 0.0 0.0 -8,750.9 18,364.7 -19,309.0 -19,309.0

2094 0.0 0.0 0.0 -8,875.4 18,258.5 -19,572.1 -19,572.1

2095 0.0 0.0 0.0 -8,998.8 18,151.2 -19,833.4 -19,833.4

2096 0.0 0.0 0.0 -9,121.6 18,043.5 -20,093.2 -20,093.2

Total 2021-2095 0.0

Notes: Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2021 Trustees Report.

 Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.3%. Office of the Chief Actuary 1

 Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption Social Security Administration

 that the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury. October 26, 2021

Calendar

Year

Proposal General Fund Transfers Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2021

Proposal

Total OASDI

Trust Fund

Reserves 

at End of Year

Theoretical Social Security1

with Borrowing Authority

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 

1-1-2021 Net OASDI Trust Fund Reserves at End of Year
Table 1b - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI (Present Value Dollars)

"Social Security 2100: A Sacred Trust," Introduced by Chairman Larson

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Cash Flow

Change in Total

Federal Debt

 Subject to Limit 

End Of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2022 0.0 -24.5 -24.5 24.5 -24.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 -24.3 -24.3 48.7 -24.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 -29.4 -29.4 78.1 -30.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 -33.3 -33.3 111.4 -34.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2026 0.0 -38.9 -38.9 150.3 -41.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2027 0.0 97.2 97.2 53.2 93.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2028 0.0 115.7 115.7 -62.5 114.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2029 0.0 120.6 120.6 -183.1 122.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2030 0.0 124.3 124.3 -307.4 129.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2031 0.0 128.7 128.7 -436.1 138.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2032 0.0 132.9 132.9 -569.0 148.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2033 0.0 137.2 137.2 -706.2 157.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2034 0.0 140.8 140.8 -847.1 171.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2035 0.0 143.9 143.9 -990.9 181.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2036 0.0 146.8 146.8 -1,137.7 191.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2037 0.0 149.7 149.7 -1,287.4 201.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2038 0.0 152.7 152.7 -1,440.1 210.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2039 0.0 155.6 155.6 -1,595.7 220.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2040 0.0 158.8 158.8 -1,754.5 231.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2041 0.0 161.9 161.9 -1,916.3 241.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2042 0.0 165.2 165.2 -2,081.5 252.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2043 0.0 168.7 168.7 -2,250.2 263.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2044 0.0 172.2 172.2 -2,422.4 274.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2045 0.0 175.9 175.9 -2,598.3 285.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2046 0.0 179.7 179.7 -2,778.0 297.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2047 0.0 183.6 183.6 -2,961.7 309.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2048 0.0 187.8 187.8 -3,149.4 322.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2049 0.0 192.1 192.1 -3,341.5 335.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2050 0.0 193.8 193.8 -3,535.3 345.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2051 0.0 192.3 192.3 -3,727.7 352.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2052 0.0 190.8 190.8 -3,918.5 360.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2053 0.0 189.2 189.2 -4,107.7 367.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2054 0.0 187.7 187.7 -4,295.4 374.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2055 0.0 186.2 186.2 -4,481.7 381.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2056 0.0 184.8 184.8 -4,666.4 388.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2057 0.0 183.3 183.3 -4,849.7 395.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2058 0.0 181.9 181.9 -5,031.6 402.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2059 0.0 180.4 180.4 -5,212.0 408.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2060 0.0 178.9 178.9 -5,390.9 415.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2061 0.0 177.5 177.5 -5,568.4 422.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2062 0.0 176.0 176.0 -5,744.4 428.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2063 0.0 174.6 174.6 -5,919.0 435.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2064 0.0 173.1 173.1 -6,092.1 441.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2065 0.0 171.7 171.7 -6,263.8 448.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2066 0.0 170.2 170.2 -6,434.1 454.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2067 0.0 168.8 168.8 -6,602.9 460.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2068 0.0 167.4 167.4 -6,770.3 467.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2069 0.0 166.0 166.0 -6,936.2 473.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2070 0.0 164.5 164.5 -7,100.8 479.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2071 0.0 163.1 163.1 -7,263.9 485.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2072 0.0 161.8 161.8 -7,425.7 491.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2073 0.0 160.4 160.4 -7,586.1 497.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2074 0.0 159.1 159.1 -7,745.2 503.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2075 0.0 157.8 157.8 -7,902.9 509.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2076 0.0 156.5 156.5 -8,059.5 515.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2077 0.0 155.3 155.3 -8,214.7 521.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2078 0.0 154.1 154.1 -8,368.8 527.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2079 0.0 152.9 152.9 -8,521.7 532.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2080 0.0 151.8 151.8 -8,673.5 538.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2081 0.0 150.7 150.7 -8,824.2 544.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2082 0.0 149.6 149.6 -8,973.8 550.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2083 0.0 148.6 148.6 -9,122.5 556.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2084 0.0 147.6 147.6 -9,270.1 561.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2085 0.0 146.7 146.7 -9,416.8 567.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2086 0.0 145.7 145.7 -9,562.5 573.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2087 0.0 144.8 144.8 -9,707.4 578.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2088 0.0 144.0 144.0 -9,851.3 584.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2089 0.0 143.1 143.1 -9,994.4 590.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2090 0.0 142.2 142.2 -10,136.6 595.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2091 0.0 141.3 141.3 -10,277.9 601.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2092 0.0 140.5 140.5 -10,418.4 607.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2093 0.0 139.6 139.6 -10,558.0 612.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2094 0.0 138.7 138.7 -10,696.7 618.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2095 0.0 137.8 137.8 -10,834.6 623.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total 2021-2095 0.0 10,834.6 10,834.6

Notes: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2021 Trustees Report.

 Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.3%.

 Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would nonetheless Office of the Chief Actuary

 be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. Social Security Administration

 Budget cash flows do not reflect effects on the Medicare Hospital Insurance Trust Fund of income taxation of OASDI benefits.

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2021

October 26, 2021
Table 1b.n - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI (Nominal Dollars)

"Social Security 2100: A Sacred Trust," Introduced by Chairman Larson

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year1

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance1

Change in 

Annual On 

Budget Cash 

Flow

Change in Total

Federal Debt 

Subject to Limit 

End of Year1

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance1

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2022 0.0 -25.4 -25.4 25.6 -25.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 -25.7 -25.7 52.2 -26.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 -31.8 -31.8 85.5 -33.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 -36.8 -36.8 124.6 -39.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2026 0.0 -43.9 -43.9 171.9 -47.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2027 0.0 112.2 112.2 62.7 109.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2028 0.0 137.1 137.1 -74.3 137.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2029 0.0 146.8 146.8 -225.0 150.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2030 0.0 155.8 155.8 -389.8 164.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2031 0.0 166.5 166.5 -571.6 181.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

Notes: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2021 Trustees Report.

 Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would nonetheless

 be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. Office of the Chief Actuary

 Budget cash flows do not reflect effects on the Medicare Hospital Insurance Trust Fund of income taxation of OASDI benefits. Social Security Administration 1

 Includes the effect of accumulated interest income.

Billions of Nominal Dollars

October 26, 2021
Table 1c - Current Law and Proposal Cost, Expenditures, and Income: As Percent of Gross Domestic Product

"Social Security 2100: A Sacred Trust," Introduced by Chairman Larson

Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

2021 5.14 5.14 4.48 5.14 5.14 4.48

2022 5.17 5.17 4.67 5.66 5.66 5.05

2023 5.24 5.24 4.69 5.75 5.75 5.10

2024 5.32 5.32 4.71 5.86 5.86 5.13

2025 5.40 5.40 4.71 5.96 5.96 5.14

2026 5.49 5.49 4.75 6.07 6.07 5.18

2027 5.58 5.58 4.76 5.65 5.65 5.21

2028 5.67 5.67 4.77 5.68 5.68 5.23

2029 5.76 5.76 4.78 5.77 5.77 5.25

2030 5.84 5.84 4.78 5.85 5.85 5.26

2031 5.89 5.89 4.78 5.90 5.90 5.27

2032 5.94 5.94 4.78 5.95 5.95 5.28

2033 5.97 5.97 4.77 5.98 5.98 5.29

2034 6.00 5.20 4.77 6.00 6.00 5.29

2035 6.01 4.76 4.76 6.02 6.02 5.30

2036 6.03 4.75 4.75 6.03 6.03 5.31

2037 6.04 4.74 4.74 6.04 6.04 5.32

2038 6.04 4.74 4.74 6.05 5.54 5.32

2039 6.04 4.73 4.73 6.05 5.33 5.33

2040 6.04 4.72 4.72 6.05 5.34 5.34

2041 6.04 4.71 4.71 6.05 5.35 5.35

2042 6.04 4.70 4.70 6.04 5.36 5.36

2043 6.02 4.69 4.69 6.03 5.37 5.37

2044 6.01 4.69 4.69 6.02 5.38 5.38

2045 6.00 4.68 4.68 6.01 5.39 5.39

2046 6.00 4.67 4.67 6.01 5.40 5.40

2047 5.99 4.66 4.66 6.00 5.42 5.42

2048 5.99 4.66 4.66 6.00 5.43 5.43

2049 5.99 4.65 4.65 6.00 5.45 5.45

2050 5.99 4.64 4.64 6.00 5.46 5.46

2051 5.99 4.64 4.64 6.00 5.45 5.45

2052 5.99 4.63 4.63 6.00 5.44 5.44

2053 5.99 4.62 4.62 6.00 5.44 5.44

2054 5.99 4.62 4.62 6.01 5.43 5.43

2055 6.00 4.61 4.61 6.01 5.43 5.43

2056 6.01 4.61 4.61 6.02 5.42 5.42

2057 6.01 4.61 4.61 6.03 5.42 5.42

2058 6.03 4.60 4.60 6.04 5.41 5.41

2059 6.04 4.60 4.60 6.05 5.41 5.41

2060 6.05 4.59 4.59 6.07 5.40 5.40

2061 6.06 4.59 4.59 6.08 5.40 5.40

2062 6.07 4.59 4.59 6.09 5.39 5.39

2063 6.08 4.58 4.58 6.10 5.39 5.39

2064 6.09 4.58 4.58 6.11 5.39 5.39

2065 6.10 4.58 4.58 6.12 5.38 5.38

2066 6.11 4.57 4.57 6.14 5.38 5.38

2067 6.12 4.57 4.57 6.15 5.37 5.37

2068 6.13 4.56 4.56 6.16 5.37 5.37

2069 6.15 4.56 4.56 6.17 5.36 5.36

2070 6.16 4.56 4.56 6.18 5.36 5.36

2071 6.17 4.55 4.55 6.20 5.36 5.36

2072 6.18 4.55 4.55 6.21 5.35 5.35

2073 6.19 4.55 4.55 6.22 5.35 5.35

2074 6.20 4.54 4.54 6.23 5.35 5.35

2075 6.21 4.54 4.54 6.24 5.34 5.34

2076 6.21 4.54 4.54 6.24 5.34 5.34

2077 6.21 4.53 4.53 6.24 5.33 5.33

2078 6.21 4.53 4.53 6.24 5.33 5.33

2079 6.20 4.52 4.52 6.23 5.32 5.32

2080 6.19 4.52 4.52 6.22 5.32 5.32

2081 6.17 4.51 4.51 6.21 5.31 5.31

2082 6.16 4.51 4.51 6.19 5.30 5.30

2083 6.13 4.50 4.50 6.17 5.30 5.30

2084 6.11 4.49 4.49 6.14 5.29 5.29

2085 6.08 4.49 4.49 6.12 5.29 5.29

2086 6.06 4.48 4.48 6.09 5.28 5.28

2087 6.03 4.48 4.48 6.06 5.27 5.27

2088 6.00 4.47 4.47 6.03 5.27 5.27

2089 5.97 4.47 4.47 6.01 5.26 5.26

2090 5.95 4.46 4.46 5.98 5.26 5.26

2091 5.93 4.46 4.46 5.96 5.25 5.25

2092 5.91 4.45 4.45 5.95 5.25 5.25

2093 5.90 4.45 4.45 5.94 5.24 5.24

2094 5.89 4.45 4.45 5.93 5.24 5.24

2095 5.89 4.44 4.44 5.93 5.24 5.24

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Note: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2021 Trustees Report.

Current Law OASDI Proposal OASDI

Calendar

Year

October 26, 2021
Table 1d - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Reserves / Unfunded Obligation (Present Value Dollars)

"Social Security 2100: A Sacred Trust," Introduced by Chairman Larson

Year

Current Law OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Total Change

Through

End of Year

Proposal OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) = cumulative sum(4) (6) = (1)+(5)

2021 2,763.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,763.2

2022 2,649.7 87.6 112.0 -24.5 -24.5 2,625.3

2023 2,521.2 96.5 120.8 -24.3 -48.7 2,472.5

2024 2,374.3 100.5 129.9 -29.4 -78.1 2,296.2

2025 2,206.2 104.7 138.1 -33.3 -111.4 2,094.7

2026 2,023.1 107.4 146.3 -38.9 -150.3 1,872.7

2027 1,815.0 115.4 18.2 97.2 -53.2 1,761.9

2028 1,583.1 118.6 3.0 115.7 62.5 1,645.6

2029 1,327.8 122.4 1.9 120.6 183.1 1,510.9

2030 1,049.2 126.0 1.7 124.3 307.4 1,356.6

2031 753.2 130.4 1.7 128.7 436.1 1,189.3

2032 442.4 134.6 1.7 132.9 569.0 1,011.4

2033 119.9 138.9 1.7 137.2 706.2 826.2

2034 -210.5 142.6 1.7 140.8 847.1 636.6

2035 -545.5 145.6 1.8 143.9 990.9 445.4

2036 -883.4 148.5 1.8 146.8 1,137.7 254.3

2037 -1,223.5 151.6 1.8 149.7 1,287.4 63.9

2038 -1,564.8 154.5 1.9 152.7 1,440.1 -124.7

2039 -1,906.0 157.5 1.9 155.6 1,595.7 -310.3

2040 -2,246.1 160.7 2.0 158.8 1,754.5 -491.6

2041 -2,586.1 163.9 2.1 161.9 1,916.3 -669.8

2042 -2,924.7 167.3 2.1 165.2 2,081.5 -843.2

2043 -3,260.3 170.9 2.2 168.7 2,250.2 -1,010.1

2044 -3,593.1 174.5 2.3 172.2 2,422.4 -1,170.7

2045 -3,923.1 178.3 2.4 175.9 2,598.3 -1,324.8

2046 -4,250.9 182.2 2.5 179.7 2,778.0 -1,472.9

2047 -4,577.3 186.2 2.6 183.6 2,961.7 -1,615.6

2048 -4,902.5 190.5 2.7 187.8 3,149.4 -1,753.0

2049 -5,226.4 194.9 2.8 192.1 3,341.5 -1,884.8

2050 -5,549.2 196.7 2.9 193.8 3,535.3 -2,013.9

2051 -5,871.2 195.4 3.0 192.3 3,727.7 -2,143.5

2052 -6,192.6 193.9 3.1 190.8 3,918.5 -2,274.2

2053 -6,513.9 192.5 3.2 189.2 4,107.7 -2,406.2

2054 -6,835.2 191.1 3.4 187.7 4,295.4 -2,539.8

2055 -7,157.0 189.7 3.5 186.2 4,481.7 -2,675.3

2056 -7,479.5 188.4 3.6 184.8 4,666.4 -2,813.1

2057 -7,803.1 187.1 3.8 183.3 4,849.7 -2,953.4

2058 -8,128.1 185.8 3.9 181.9 5,031.6 -3,096.5

2059 -8,454.4 184.5 4.1 180.4 5,212.0 -3,242.5

2060 -8,782.3 183.2 4.2 178.9 5,390.9 -3,391.4

2061 -9,111.5 181.8 4.4 177.5 5,568.4 -3,543.1

2062 -9,441.8 180.6 4.5 176.0 5,744.4 -3,697.4

2063 -9,773.1 179.2 4.7 174.6 5,919.0 -3,854.1

2064 -10,105.2 177.9 4.8 173.1 6,092.1 -4,013.0

2065 -10,438.1 176.6 4.9 171.7 6,263.8 -4,174.3

2066 -10,771.9 175.3 5.1 170.2 6,434.1 -4,337.8

2067 -11,106.5 174.0 5.2 168.8 6,602.9 -4,503.6

2068 -11,441.9 172.7 5.3 167.4 6,770.3 -4,671.6

2069 -11,778.2 171.4 5.4 166.0 6,936.2 -4,842.0

2070 -12,115.6 170.0 5.5 164.5 7,100.8 -5,014.8

2071 -12,453.9 168.7 5.6 163.1 7,263.9 -5,190.0

2072 -12,792.8 167.5 5.7 161.8 7,425.7 -5,367.1

2073 -13,132.3 166.2 5.8 160.4 7,586.1 -5,546.2

2074 -13,472.3 165.0 5.9 159.1 7,745.2 -5,727.1

2075 -13,812.2 163.8 6.0 157.8 7,902.9 -5,909.2

2076 -14,151.5 162.6 6.1 156.5 8,059.5 -6,092.0

2077 -14,489.4 161.4 6.1 155.3 8,214.7 -6,274.7

2078 -14,825.2 160.3 6.2 154.1 8,368.8 -6,456.5

2079 -15,158.1 159.2 6.3 152.9 8,521.7 -6,636.4

2080 -15,487.5 158.1 6.3 151.8 8,673.5 -6,814.0

2081 -15,812.9 157.1 6.4 150.7 8,824.2 -6,988.7

2082 -16,133.8 156.0 6.4 149.6 8,973.8 -7,160.0

2083 -16,449.9 155.0 6.4 148.6 9,122.5 -7,327.4

2084 -16,760.5 154.1 6.4 147.6 9,270.1 -7,490.4

2085 -17,065.6 153.1 6.5 146.7 9,416.8 -7,648.8

2086 -17,364.9 152.2 6.5 145.7 9,562.5 -7,802.4

2087 -17,658.2 151.3 6.5 144.8 9,707.4 -7,950.9

2088 -17,945.4 150.4 6.5 144.0 9,851.3 -8,094.1

2089 -18,226.9 149.5 6.5 143.1 9,994.4 -8,232.5

2090 -18,503.3 148.7 6.5 142.2 10,136.6 -8,366.7

2091 -18,775.2 147.8 6.5 141.3 10,277.9 -8,497.3

2092 -19,043.5 147.0 6.5 140.5 10,418.4 -8,625.1

2093 -19,309.0 146.1 6.5 139.6 10,558.0 -8,750.9

2094 -19,572.1 145.2 6.5 138.7 10,696.7 -8,875.4

2095 -19,833.4 144.4 6.5 137.8 10,834.6 -8,998.8

Total 2021-2095 11,791.2 956.7 10,834.6

Office of the Chief Actuary

Notes: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2021 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration

 Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.3%. October 26, 2021

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2021
Table 1d.n - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Reserves / Unfunded Obligation (Nominal Dollars)

"Social Security 2100: A Sacred Trust," Introduced by Chairman Larson

Year

Current Law OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Total Change

Through

End of Year1

Proposal OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) (6) = (1)+(5)

2021 2,831.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,831.0

2022 2,777.1 90.4 116.1 -25.6 -25.6 2,751.4

2023 2,699.7 101.4 127.9 -26.6 -52.2 2,647.5

2024 2,595.9 107.2 140.5 -33.3 -85.5 2,510.5

2025 2,463.2 113.4 152.5 -39.1 -124.6 2,338.6

2026 2,309.8 117.7 165.1 -47.4 -171.9 2,137.8

2027 2,123.6 130.3 21.1 109.2 -62.7 2,060.9

2028 1,901.9 140.5 3.5 137.0 74.3 1,976.2

2029 1,640.8 153.0 2.3 150.7 225.0 1,865.9

2030 1,336.4 166.9 2.1 164.8 389.8 1,726.3

2031 991.0 183.9 2.2 181.8 571.6 1,562.6

Notes: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2021 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

 Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.3%. Social Security Administration 1 Includes the effect of accumulated interest income. October 26, 2021

Billions of Nominal Dollars