SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE, MD 21235-0001

SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

July 12, 2023 

The Honorable John Larson 

Subcommittee on Social Security

Committee on Ways and Means

United States House of Representatives 

Washington, D.C. 20515 

Dear Ranking Member Larson: 

I am writing in response to your request for our estimates of the financial effects on Social 

Security of enacting the Social Security 2100 Act, which you introduced today. The estimates 

provided here reflect the intermediate assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report.

This Bill (hereafter referred to as the proposal) includes 16 provisions with direct effects on the 

Social Security trust funds. As detailed in this letter, these provisions would provide benefit 

enhancements that would, for 12 of the provisions, apply for eligible benefits for affected 

individuals in ten years (generally 2025 through 2034), and then revert to current-law benefit 

levels for eligible benefits after the ten-year period. The descriptions of these provisions and our 

estimates reflect our understanding of the intended effects for this proposal. 

We have enjoyed working closely with Emily Naden, Scott Stephanou, Kathryn Olson, and TJ 

Sutcliffe. The estimates and analysis provided here reflect the combined effort of many in the 

Office of the Chief Actuary, but most particularly Karen Glenn, Daniel Nickerson, Christopher 

Chaplain, Kyle Burkhalter, Sharon Chu, Karen Rose, Anna Kirjusina, Katie Sutton, and Tiffany 

Bosley. 

The enclosed tables provide estimates of the effects of enacting the 16 provisions on the cost, 

income, and combined trust fund reserves for the Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance 

(OASDI) program, as well as estimated effects on retired worker benefit levels and effects on 

payroll tax levels for selected hypothetical workers. In addition, tables 1b and 1b.n provide 

estimates of the federal budget implications of enacting these 16 provisions with direct effects on 

the OASDI program. 

We estimate that enactment of these provisions would extend the ability of the OASDI program 

to pay scheduled benefits in full and on time for an additional 32 years. That is, the date of 

projected depletion of the combined OASI and DI Trust Fund reserves would be moved from 

2034 under current law to 2066 assuming enactment of the proposal, under the intermediate 

assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report. In addition, because the tax provisions are not 
Page 2 – The Honorable John Larson

temporary, the percent of scheduled benefits that would be payable would be increased in all 

years after projected trust fund reserve depletion in 2066. For the calendar year period 2023

through 2032, the OASDI net cash flow is projected to increase by $1,013 billion. The increased

net revenue from the payroll tax rate increase on earnings over $400,000 (Sections 201 and 202)

and the application of the 12.4-percent tax to net investment income over the specified threshold

(Section 203) more than offsets the increased cost from the 13 benefit enhancement provisions, 

most of which apply from 2025 to 2034.

The proposal includes 16 provisions with direct effects on the OASDI program. The following 

list briefly describes these provisions:

Section 101. Increase the first PIA formula factor from 90 percent to 93 percent for all 

beneficiaries with benefit entitlement for months in 2025 through 2034. Revert to current-law 

benefit levels for January 2035 and later.

Section 102. Use the higher of the change in the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPIE) or the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) to 

temporarily calculate the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), effective for December 2024

through December 2033 COLAs. Revert to current-law benefit levels for January 2035 and 

later. We estimate this change would increase the COLA by an average of 0.3 percentage 

point per year.

Section 103. Increase the special minimum PIA temporarily for workers who become newly 

eligible for retirement or disability benefits or die in 2025 through 2034. Revert to currentlaw benefit levels for January 2035 and later. For workers who become newly eligible or die

in 2025, the minimum PIA for 2025 for workers with 30 or more years of coverage (YOCs) is 

125 percent of the annual poverty guideline for a single individual published by the 

Department of Health and Human Services for 2024, divided by 12. For workers who become

newly eligible or die in 2026 through 2034, the minimum PIA for their initial year of 

eligibility is increased by the growth in the national average wage index (AWI). For all 

affected benefits, the minimum PIA is increased by the COLA after the worker’s year of 

initial eligibility.

Section 104. Replace the current-law thresholds for federal income taxation of OASDI 

benefits with a single set of thresholds at $35,000 for single filers and $50,000 for joint filers 

for taxation of up to 85 percent of OASDI benefits, effective for tax years 2025 through 2034. 

Revert to current-law specifications for tax years 2035 and later. The amount of revenue from 

taxation of OASDI benefits that would be allocated to Medicare’s Hospital Insurance (HI)

Trust Fund for tax years 2025 through 2034 will be at the same level as if the current-law 

computation (in the absence of this provision) were applied. The net amount of revenue from 

taxing OASDI benefits, after the allocation to HI, would be allocated to the combined OASI 

and DI Trust Funds.

Section 105. Establish an alternative benefit for non-divorced surviving spouses. This benefit 

would be available temporarily for surviving spouses with benefit entitlement for months in

2025 through 2034. Revert to current-law benefit levels for January 2035 and later. For the 

surviving spouse, the alternative benefit would equal 75 percent of the sum of the survivor’s 
Page 3 – The Honorable John Larson

own worker benefit and the deceased worker’s PIA (including any actuarial reductions or 

delayed retirement credits (DRC)). If the deceased worker died before becoming entitled, use 

the age 62 actuarial reduction if deceased before age 62, or the applicable actuarial 

reduction/DRC for entitlement at the age of death if deceased after 62. The alternative benefit 

would not exceed the PIA of a hypothetical earner who earns the AWI every year, and who 

becomes eligible for retired-worker benefits in the same year in which the deceased worker 

became entitled to worker benefits or died (if before entitlement). The alternative benefit 

would be paid only if more than the current-law benefit.

Section 106. Provide a 5-percent uniform PIA increase 20 years after initial eligibility, 

temporarily for 2025 through 2034. Revert to current-law benefit levels for January 2035 and 

later. The benefit increase would be phased in at 1 percent per year from the 16th calendar 

year through the 20th calendar year after the year of initial eligibility. The uniform PIA 

increase is equal to the specified percent of the PIA of a worker who becomes newly eligible 

in the same year who had career-average earnings (AIME) equal to the AWI for the second 

year prior to initial eligibility. Auxiliary beneficiaries would receive benefit enhancements

based on the PIA of the governing worker.

Section 107. For workers caring for a child under age 12 or for a dependent relative, provide 

a temporary “earnings credit” on their record to be used for computation of their benefit. 

Effective for workers who become newly eligible for retirement or disability benefits or die in 

2025 through 2034, with all past caregiving years counted. Revert to current-law benefit 

levels for January 2035 and later.

Section 108. Eliminate the DI waiting period after enactment of the proposal effective for all 

months in 2025 through 2034. Revert to current law for waiting period months in January 

2035 and later.

Section 109. End the DI benefit cliff temporarily for beneficiaries with earnings after initial 

disability entitlement for months in 2025 through 2034. In this period, use a $1-for-$2 offset 

for earnings above the blind substantial gainful activity (SGA) level. Revert to current law for 

months of benefit entitlement in 2035 and later.

Section 110. Temporarily cease applying the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and 

Government Pension Offset (GPO) for all beneficiaries with benefit entitlement for months in

2025 through 2034. Revert to current-law benefit levels for January 2035 and later.

Section 111. Provide benefits for students who are children of disabled, retired, or deceased 

workers until attainment of age 26, for all eligible children with benefit entitlement for months 

in 2025 through 2034. Revert to current-law benefit levels for January 2035 and later.

Section 112. Provide benefits to children who are in the custody of a grandparent or other 

eligible relative for at least 12 months and are receiving at least one-half of their financial 

support from the relative on whose account the child benefit is based. Effective for all eligible 

children with benefit entitlement for months in 2025 through 2034. Revert to current-law 

benefit criteria for January 2035 and later.
Page 4 – The Honorable John Larson 

Section 113. Prevent reductions in the AWI for any year 2025 or later from reducing benefits 

for individuals who become newly eligible for benefits two years later. 

Section 201 and Section 202. Apply the combined OASDI payroll tax rate on covered earnings 

above $400,000 paid in 2025 and later. Tax all covered earnings once the current-law taxable 

maximum exceeds $400,000. Increase the computed level of the AWI for years after 2024 by 

amounts ranging from 0.5 percent for 2025 to 0.9 percent for 2047 and later. Credit the 

additional earnings that are taxed for benefit purposes by: (a) calculating a second average 

indexed monthly earnings (“AIME+”) reflecting only additional earnings taxed above the 

current-law taxable maximum, (b) applying a 1-percent factor on this newly computed 

“AIME+” to develop a second component of the PIA, and (c) adding this second component 

to the current-law PIA.

Section 203. Apply a separate 12.4-percent tax on net investment income (NII), as defined in 

the Affordable Care Act (ACA), payable to the OASI and DI Trust Funds with an unindexed 

threshold of $400,000, effective 2025 and later. The NII tax would apply to the lesser of NII 

and the excess of modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) above the unindexed threshold of 

$400,000. This single threshold would apply regardless of tax filing status. 

Section 303. Increase the dollar level applicable for attorney fees entered into under the “fee 

agreement” process after enactment. Attorney fees under the fee agreement process would be 

the lesser of 25 percent of past-due benefits or $12,056 for enactment in 2023, as compared to 

$7,200 under current law for November 30, 2022 or later. Increase the dollar level by changes 

in the AWI for years after 2023. 

The balance of this letter provides a summary of the effects of the 16 provisions on the actuarial 

status of the OASDI program, our understanding of the specifications and intent of each of the 

16 provisions, and descriptions of our detailed financial estimates for trust fund operations, 

benefit levels, and implications for the federal budget. See the “Specification for Provisions of 

the Proposal” section of this letter for a more detailed description of these 16 provisions. 

Summary of Effects of the Proposal on OASDI Actuarial Status

Figure 1 illustrates the projected OASDI Trust Fund ratio through 2097 under current law and 

assuming enactment of the proposal. The trust fund ratio is defined as the combined OASI and 

DI Trust Fund reserves expressed as a percent of annual program cost. Assuming enactment of 

the proposal, the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds are expected to be able to pay scheduled 

benefits in full and on time for an additional 32 years, under the intermediate assumptions of the 

2023 Trustees Report.
Page 5 – The Honorable John Larson 

Note: Trust Fund Ratio for a given year is the ratio of reserves in the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds at the 

beginning of the year to the cost of the program for the year.

Under current law, 80 percent of scheduled benefits are projected to be payable on a timely basis 

in 2034 after depletion of the combined trust fund reserves, with the percentage payable 

declining to 74 percent for 2097. Under the proposal, 95 percent of scheduled benefits are 

projected to be payable on a timely basis in 2066 after depletion of the combined trust fund 

reserves, with the percentage payable increasing slightly to 98 percent for 2097. 

Enactment of the 16 provisions of this proposal would decrease the long-range OASDI actuarial 

deficit from 3.61 percent of taxable payroll under current law to 0.47 percent of payroll under the 

proposal. 

Figure 2 illustrates annual projected levels of cost, expenditures, and non-interest income as a 

percentage of the current-law taxable payroll. The projected level of cost reflects the full cost of 

scheduled benefits under both current law and the proposal. After trust fund reserve depletion, 

projected expenditures under current law and under the proposal include only amounts payable 

from projected tax revenues (non-interest income), which are less than projected cost.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2023 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Trust Fund Ratio

Figure 1. Current-Law and Proposal OASDI Trust Fund Reserves as Percent 

of Annual Cost: 2023 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Current-Law Trust Fund Ratio

Proposal
Page 6 – The Honorable John Larson 

Specific effects over the 75-year projection period include: 

• OASDI program annual cost under the proposal is notably higher than under current law

from 2025 through 2034, when the temporary benefit enhancements are effective. This 

difference between proposal and current-law cost increases from 0.92 percent of currentlaw payroll for 2025 to 1.69 percent of current-law payroll for 2034. After 2034, program 

annual cost remains higher than under current law, at 0.06 percent of payroll higher in 

2035, declining to 0.02 percent higher in 2038-47, and then increasing gradually to 0.08 

percent higher by 2097. 

• Beginning in 2025, non-interest income under the proposal is projected to be higher than 

under current law. This difference between proposal and current-law income increases

from 1.98 percent of current-law payroll for 2025 to 3.69 percent of current-law payroll 

for 2049, and thereafter increases more gradually, reaching 4.08 percent of current-law 

payroll for 2097. For 2025 through 2034, the proposal increases (improves) the annual 

balance (non-interest income minus program cost) by between 1.0 and 1.1 percent of 

current-law payroll, and then increases the annual balance for 2035 and later by between 

2.7 and 4.0 percent, as (1) most of the benefit enhancement effects end and more earnings 

fall above the higher of $400,000 or the current-law taxable maximum and are subject to 

the 12.4 percent payroll tax, and (2) more MAGI falls above the fixed threshold, 

increasing revenue from the NII tax. 

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

2023 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Percent of Current-Law Taxable Payroll

Figure 2. Proposal and Current-Law Cost, Expenditures, and Non-Interest 

Income as Percent of Taxable Payroll: 2023 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Current-Law Cost

Current-Law Non-Interest Income

Current-Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Non-Interest Income

Proposal Expenditures
Page 7 – The Honorable John Larson 

It is also useful to consider the projected cost, expenditures, and income for the OASDI program 

expressed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Figure 3 illustrates these levels 

under both current law and the proposal. 

Specification for and Effects of Provisions of the Proposal 

Section 101. Increase the first PIA formula factor from 90 percent to 93 percent for all 

beneficiaries with benefit entitlement for months in 2025 through 2034. Revert to current-law 

benefit levels for January 2035 and later. 

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.04 percent of taxable payroll and would have no effect on the annual deficit 

for the 75th projection year (2097).

Section 102. Use the higher of the change in the CPI-E or the CPI-W to temporarily 

calculate the COLA, effective for December 2024 through December 2033 COLAs. Revert to 

current-law benefit levels for January 2035 and later.

Under current law, the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) applied to Social Security 

benefits is calculated using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical 

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

2023 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Percent of GDP

Figure 3. Proposal and Current-Law Cost, Expenditures, and Non-Interest 

Income as Percent of GDP: 2023 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Current-Law Cost

Current-Law Non-Interest Income

Current-Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Non-Interest Income

Proposal Expenditures
Page 8 – The Honorable John Larson

Workers (CPI-W). We estimate that using the higher of the change in the Consumer Price Index 

for the Elderly (CPI-E) or the CPI-W in each year from the December 2024 through December 

2033 COLAs would increase the effective COLA by 0.3 percentage point per year on average.

For this provision, the COLAs based on the higher of the CPI-W or the CPI-E would apply for 

benefits paid from 2025 through 2034, then revert to current-law benefit levels for years 2035

and later. 

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.04 percent of taxable payroll and would have no effect on the annual deficit

for the 75th projection year (2097).

Section 103. Increase the special minimum PIA temporarily for workers who become newly 

eligible for retirement or disability benefits or die in 2025 through 2034. Revert to currentlaw benefit levels for January 2035 and later.

Under this provision, the minimum initial PIA for workers who become newly eligible or die in 

2025 with 30 or more years of coverage (YOCs) would be 125 percent of the annual poverty 

guideline for a single individual published by the Department of Health and Human Services for 

2024, divided by 12. For those with less than 30 YOCs, the minimum PIA per YOC in excess of 

10 YOCs is the minimum PIA for workers with 30 or more YOCs, divided by 20. Any year in 

which a worker earns four quarters of coverage is determined to be a YOC. For workers who 

become newly eligible or die in 2026 through 2034, the initial PIA per YOC in excess of 10 

YOCs is indexed from the 2025 level by growth in the AWI to determine the minimum PIA 

applicable for the year of initial eligibility. After the year of initial eligibility, the minimum 

benefit is increased by the COLA for each cohort. The 30 and 10 YOC levels apply for all 

workers, including those who die or become disabled under age 62. Increased benefits under this 

provision would be payable for affected beneficiaries only for months of eligibility in 2025

through 2034.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by an amount that is negligible, that is, less than 0.005 percent of taxable payroll,

and would have no effect on the annual deficit for the 75th projection year (2097).

Section 104. Replace the current-law thresholds for federal income taxation of OASDI 

benefits with a single set of thresholds at $35,000 for single filers and $50,000 for joint filers 

for taxation of up to 85 percent of OASDI benefits, effective for tax years 2025 through 2034. 

Revert to current-law specifications for tax years 2035 and later.

Under current law, single tax filers with combined “income” (approximately equal to adjusted 

gross income plus non-taxable interest income and one-half of their Social Security benefit) 

greater than $25,000 may have to pay income tax on up to 50 percent of their Social Security 

benefits. If combined “income” exceeds $34,000, up to 85 percent of benefits may be taxable. 

The income tax revenue for taxing up to 50 percent of Social Security benefits is credited to the 

OASI and DI Trust Funds. The additional income tax revenue derived from taxing benefits in 

excess of 50 percent, up to 85 percent, is credited to the HI Trust Fund. The process is similar for 

joint tax filers, with $32,000 and $44,000 thresholds applying for possible taxation of up to 50 
Page 9 – The Honorable John Larson

percent or 85 percent of the Social Security benefits, respectively. All threshold levels are fixed 

amounts and not indexed to price inflation or the AWI.

Under the proposal, both sets of the current-law thresholds would be replaced with a single set of 

thresholds, $35,000 and $50,000 for single and joint filers, respectively, for taxing up to 85 

percent of OASDI benefits, effective for tax years 2025 through 2034. For tax years 2025

through 2034, the amount of revenue from taxation of OASDI benefits that would be allocated to 

the HI Trust Fund would be at the same level as if the current-law computation (in the absence of 

this provision) were applied. The net amount of revenue from taxing OASDI benefits, after the 

allocation to HI, would be allocated to the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds. All 

specifications for taxing Social Security benefits would revert to current law for tax years 2035

and later.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.01 percent of taxable payroll and would have no effect on the annual deficit 

for the 75th projection year (2097).

Section 105. Establish an alternative benefit for non-divorced surviving spouses. This benefit 

would be available temporarily for surviving spouses with benefit entitlement for months in

2025 through 2034. Revert to current-law benefit levels for January 2035 and later.

Under current law, surviving spouses aged 60 or older are eligible to receive the higher of their 

own worker benefit (as a retiree or a disabled worker) or the benefit amount their deceased 

spouse was eligible to receive, subject to potential reductions for age at benefit entitlement. This 

proposed provision is intended to allow non-divorced surviving spouses to receive an alternative 

benefit when it is higher than the benefit available under current law.

The alternative benefit would be computed as 75 percent of the sum of (a) the worker benefit (as 

a retired worker or as a disabled worker) the survivor is eligible to receive, including any 

reductions for age or DRC and (b) the worker benefit the deceased spouse would be eligible to 

receive if still alive, reflecting any reduction for age at entitlement or DRC (or if not entitled at 

death, then the reduction for age or DRC available for entitlement at the date of death or the 

earliest time thereafter). However, the size of the alternative benefit so computed would be 

limited so as not to exceed the PIA (unreduced for early retirement and not increased by DRC) 

for a theoretical retired worker who becomes entitled to benefits at age 62 in the same year the 

deceased first became entitled to a benefit (or the year of death if not yet entitled), with earnings 

for each year equal to the AWI. Benefit increases under this provision would be applicable for 

surviving spouses receiving benefits for months of benefit entitlement in 2025 through 2034.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.02 percent of taxable payroll and would have no effect on the annual deficit 

for the 75th projection year (2097).

Section 106. Provide a 5-percent uniform PIA increase 20 years after eligibility, temporarily 

for 2025 through 2034. Revert to current-law benefit levels for January 2035 and later.
Page 10 – The Honorable John Larson

The uniform PIA increase would be phased in at 1 percent per year from the 16th calendar year 

through the 20th calendar year after the year of initial eligibility. The uniform PIA increase is 

equal to the specified percent of the PIA of a worker who becomes newly eligible in the same 

year who had career-average earnings (AIME) equal to the AWI for the second year prior to 

initial eligibility. Auxiliary beneficiaries would receive benefit enhancements based on the PIA 

of the governing worker. Benefits under this provision would be payable for all qualifying 

beneficiaries with months of benefit entitlement in 2025 through 2034. 

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.03 percent of taxable payroll and would have no effect on the annual deficit 

for the 75th projection year (2097).

Section 107. For workers caring for a child under age 12 or for a dependent relative, provide 

a temporary “earnings credit” on their record to be used for computation of their benefit. 

Effective for workers who become newly eligible for retirement or disability benefits or die in 

2025 through 2034, with all past caregiving years counted. Revert to current-law benefit 

levels for January 2035 and later.

For workers caring for a child under age 12 or for a dependent relative (a chronically dependent 

individual unable to perform at least two of five activities of “daily living”), this provision 

applies a temporary “earnings credit” on the worker’s record to be used for computation of their 

benefit. The provision applies for years where earnings are less than the AWI of the second prior 

calendar year. If an individual has no earnings in the month, the “earnings credit” is one-half of 

the AWI level for the second prior calendar year. For those with positive earnings but less than 

the AWI level of the second prior calendar year, the additional earnings credit (or “top-up”)

equals one-half of the AWI level minus one-half of the earnings before the credit. For example, 

if the applicable AWI were $50,000 and an individual’s earnings before the credit were $40,000, 

then total credited earnings would equal $40,000 + 1⁄2 * ($50,000 - $40,000) or $45,000, with a 

top-up of $5,000. Stated another way, the additional earnings credited goes halfway from the 

earnings before the credit to the applicable AWI amount. 

This provision is effective for workers who become newly eligible for retirement or disability 

benefits or die in 2025 through 2034. Benefit levels would not be affected under this provision 

for January 2035 or later. All past caregiving years before 2034 can qualify for the caregiver 

earnings credit. The computation would apply the most advantageous five caregiving years to 

maximize the worker’s benefit.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.01 percent of taxable payroll and would have no effect on the annual deficit 

for the 75th projection year (2097).

Section 108. Eliminate the DI waiting period after enactment of the proposal effective for all 

months in 2025 through 2034. Revert to current law for waiting period months in January

2035 and later.

Under current law, disabled workers and disabled widow(er)s must be disabled for five months 

after their disability onset date before they can begin receiving Social Security disability benefits. 
Page 11 – The Honorable John Larson

Section 108 would eliminate this five-month waiting period for disabled workers and disabled 

widow(er)s. Thus, the proposal would make Social Security monthly benefits available 

beginning with the first full month after the onset of disability. The proposal would become 

effective upon enactment for those whose waiting period would have included months in 2025

through 2034. 

With temporary elimination of the DI waiting period, we project that some individuals who 

would otherwise not apply for benefits under current law would be induced to apply for and 

receive disability benefits. These individuals would continue to receive disability benefits for 

years 2035 and later, but waiting period months starting in 2035 would take effect as under

current law.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.01 percent of taxable payroll and would have no effect on the annual deficit 

for the 75th projection year (2097).

Section 109. End the DI benefit cliff temporarily for beneficiaries with earnings after initial 

entitlement for months in 2025 through 2034. In this period, use a $1-for-$2 offset for 

earnings above the blind substantial gainful activity (SGA) level. Revert to current law for 

years 2035 and later.

Under current law, individuals entitled on the basis of disability who earn above a specified 

monthly amount for nine months over a 60-month trial work period (TWP) go into an extended 

period of eligibility (EPE) period of 36 months. During this EPE period, if monthly earnings are 

above a specified SGA amount, benefits are completely withheld for that month. If earnings are 

zero or not higher than the specified SGA amount for a given month, then full benefits are paid 

for that month. Then, after the 36-month period, for the first month earnings exceed the SGA 

level, the individual is terminated from receiving benefits. For non-blind disabled beneficiaries, 

the 2023 SGA level is $1,470 and for blind disabled beneficiaries, the 2023 SGA level is $2,460. 

Both SGA levels will increase in future years based on increases in the AWI.

Under this provision, the TWP would be retained, but the EPE and the possibility of benefit 

termination based on earnings would be temporarily eliminated. For only the purpose of benefit 

amount determinations after the TWP, the blind SGA level would also be used for all

beneficiaries: for instance, $2,460 rather than $1,470 would be used for 2023. The benefit 

reduction would remove the “cliff” of full benefits or no benefits, and instead reduce benefits by 

$1 for every $2 of monthly earnings above the blind SGA level. For example, if an individual 

were receiving a $1,500 monthly benefit during the current-law EPE period and earned $4,460

for a given month in 2023, then the benefit received for that month would be $0 under current 

law, but would be $1,500 – 1⁄2 * (4,460 – 2,460) = $500 if this provision applies. Therefore, many 

disability beneficiaries in these five years would have the enhanced ability to have earnings with 

less benefit reduction.

This provision does not change the SGA earnings level used to determine allowances for 

disability benefits. Instead, it only applies to the thresholds used for benefit offset for 

beneficiaries after completion of the TWP.
Page 12 – The Honorable John Larson

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.01 percent of taxable payroll and would have no effect on the annual deficit 

for the 75th projection year (2097).

Section 110. Temporarily cease applying the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and 

Government Pension Offset (GPO) for all beneficiaries with benefit entitlement for months in

2025 through 2034. Revert to current-law benefit levels for January 2035 and later.

The Windfall Elimination Provision reduces the 90 percent PIA factor to as low as 40 percent for 

individuals who receive a pension based on employment not covered by Social Security. The 

Government Pension Offset reduces benefits for spouse and surviving spouse beneficiaries by 

two-thirds of qualifying non-covered government pensions. Such pensions include pensions 

based on state and local covered employment or for Federal workers covered under the Civil 

Service Retirement System. Section 110 would eliminate the WEP and GPO completely for all 

beneficiaries with benefit entitlement for months in 2025 through 2034.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.02 percent of taxable payroll and would have no effect on the annual deficit 

for the 75th projection year (2097).

Section 111. Provide benefits for students who are children of disabled, retired, or deceased 

workers until attainment of age 26, for all eligible children with benefit entitlement for months 

in 2025 through 2034. Revert to current-law benefit levels for January 2035 and later.

Under current law, benefits are available to children of retired, disabled, and deceased workers 

who are full-time students at a secondary school or elementary school, up to attainment of age 

19. This provision would extend eligibility of student benefits to full-time elementary or 

secondary students and at least half-time post-secondary students, up to attainment of age 26, for 

all eligible children with benefit entitlement for months in 2025 through 2034.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.01 percent of taxable payroll and would have no effect on the annual deficit 

for the 75th projection year (2097).

Section 112. Provide benefits to children who are in the custody of a grandparent or other 

eligible relative for at least 12 months and are receiving at least one-half of their financial 

support from the relative. Effective for all eligible children with benefit entitlement for months 

in 2025 through 2034. Revert to current-law benefit criteria for January 2035 and later.

Under section 112, children in the custody of a grandparent or other eligible relative can receive 

Social Security benefits on the grandparent’s or eligible relative’s Social Security account. The 

grandparent or eligible relative must provide at least one-half of the child’s support. This 

provision is effective for all eligible children with benefit entitlement for months in 2025 through 

2034.
Page 13 – The Honorable John Larson

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by a negligible amount, that is, less than 0.005 percent of taxable payroll, and 

would have no effect on the annual deficit for the 75th projection year (2097).

Section 113. Prevent reductions in the AWI for any year 2025 or later from reducing benefits 

for individuals who become newly eligible for benefits two years later.

Under this provision, for any year where the AWI as computed would be lower than the AWI for 

any previous year, the largest AWI from among all previous years will be used for the purpose of 

computing the average indexed monthly earnings (AIME) and the PIA for all beneficiaries who 

become initially eligible for benefits two years after such year. This provision would apply for 

the AWI computed for all years 2025 and later. 

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by a negligible amount, that is, less than 0.005 percent of taxable payroll, and 

would have a negligible effect on the annual deficit for the 75th projection year (2097).

Section 201 and Section 202. Apply the combined OASDI payroll tax rate on covered 

earnings above $400,000 paid in 2025 and later. Increase the computed level of the AWI for 

years after 2024 by amounts ranging from 0.5 percent for 2025 to 0.9 percent for 2047 and 

later.

These provisions apply the OASDI payroll tax rate to covered earnings above $400,000 paid in 

2025 and later. The $400,000 level is a fixed amount after 2025 and is not indexed to price 

inflation or the AWI. All covered earnings would be taxed once the current-law taxable 

maximum exceeds $400,000, which is projected to occur in 2048. Any covered earnings above 

the higher of $400,000 or the current-law taxable maximum in a given year would be counted as 

“excess wages” and would be credited for benefit purposes by:

a. Calculating a second average indexed monthly earnings (“AIME+”) reflecting only 

additional earnings taxed above the current-law maximum,

b. Applying a 1-percent PIA factor to this newly computed “AIME+” to develop a second 

component of the PIA, and

c. Adding this second PIA component to the current-law PIA.

In addition, the AWI would be increased above the computed level for all years beginning in 

2024, as follows: 0.5 percent for years 2025-30, 0.6 percent for years 2031-36, 0.7 percent for 

years 2037-42, 0.8 percent for years 2043-46, and 0.9 percent for 2047 and later.

The secondary AIME+ calculation and the AWI increases for years 2025 and later in sections 

201 and 202 increase OASDI cost. However, in response to the increased payroll tax in section 

201 for 2025 and later, we assume employers will redistribute total employee compensation

among taxes, wages, and other compensation. This behavioral response reduces the increase in 

both payroll tax revenue and scheduled benefits that would accrue in the absence of this

behavioral response.
Page 14 – The Honorable John Larson 

We estimate that enactment of sections 201 and 202 alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 2.16 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2097) by 2.47 percent of payroll. 

Section 203. Apply a separate 12.4-percent tax on net investment income (NII), as defined in 

the Affordable Care Act (ACA), payable to the OASI and DI Trust Funds with an unindexed 

threshold of $400,000, effective 2025 and later. 

The NII tax would apply to the lesser of NII and the excess of Modified Adjusted Gross Income, 

or MAGI (AGI with adjustments for specific circumstances), above the unindexed threshold of 

$400,000. This single threshold would apply regardless of tax filing status. 

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 1.20 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2097) by 1.53 percent of payroll. 

Section 303. Increase the dollar level applicable for attorney fees entered into under the “fee 

agreement” process after enactment.

For cases where a potential beneficiary has attorney representation, typically for disability cases, 

attorney fees are based on past-due benefits paid—that is, the time between entitlement to a 

benefit and when the benefit is awarded. Attorney fees are established under either a “fee 

agreement” or “fee petition” process. Under the fee agreement process, the agreement must be 

signed by the beneficiary and attorney, and submitted to the Social Security Administration 

(SSA) before the first favorable decision (allowance). For those cases not using the fee 

agreement process, attorneys must file a “fee petition” to SSA for approval and payment of 

attorney fees. 

For cases using a fee agreement, current-law attorney fees are the lesser of 25 percent of the pastdue benefits or $7,200. Section 303 of the proposal would increase the dollar level based on the 

formula: $4,000 * AWI for 2 years prior / AWI for 1989. This formula yields a dollar level of 

$12,056 for 2023, which would be increased in future years by changes in the AWI. Section 303 

makes no changes to the fee petition process. 

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by a negligible amount, that is, less than 0.005 percent of taxable payroll, and 

would have a negligible effect on the annual deficit for the 75th projection year (2097).

Detailed Financial Results for the Provisions of the Proposal 

Summary Results by Provision 

Table A provides estimates of the effects on the OASDI long-range actuarial balance of the 

provisions of the proposal separately and on a combined basis. The table also includes estimates 

of the effect of the provisions on the annual balance (the difference between the income rate and 

the cost rate, expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll) for the 75th projection 
Page 15 – The Honorable John Larson

year, 2097. Interaction among individual provisions is reflected only in the total estimates for the 

combined provisions.

Benefit Illustrations

Tables B1 and B2 provide illustrative examples of the projected change in benefit levels under 

the provisions of the proposal for beneficiaries retiring and starting benefit receipt at age 65 in 

future years at six selected earnings levels, with selected numbers of years of work. The 

“Maximum-AIME Steady Earner” is assumed to have earnings at ages 22 through 64 that equal 

the current-law taxable maximum level (equivalent to $160,200 for 2023) and the “Twice 

Maximum-AIME Steady Earner” is assumed to have earnings at ages 22 through 64 that equal 

twice the current-law taxable maximum level (equivalent to $320,400 for 2023). As a result, the 

provision to tax and credit earnings above the current-law taxable maximum (sections 201 and 

202) has the greatest effect on the “Twice Maximum-AIME Steady Earner” benefit level. This 

provision has small effects on all hypothetical workers shown, due to the prescribed AWI 

increases for years after 2024. Table B3 provides additional important information on 

characteristics of retired workers represented by these illustrations for the year 2019.

The first several columns of Table B1 compare the initial scheduled benefit levels, assuming 

retirement at age 65 under the provisions of the proposal, to scheduled current-law benefit levels. 

For 2027, the COLA provision and the benefit formula provisions affect all workers. Note that 

the effects of the minimum benefit provision are not visible in the table, because it applies for 

workers attaining age 65 in years 2028 through 2037. The scheduled benefit amounts under the 

proposal are higher than under current law by 0.1 percent or less in 2040, 2060, and 2090, for all 

workers except the twice maximum-current-law-AIME worker. For the twice current-law-AIME 

worker, there are additional increases shown in years 2040, 2060, and 2090, reflecting the 

additional earnings subject to payroll tax above the current-law taxable maximum and credited 

for benefit purposes. The final two columns of this table show the level of scheduled benefits 

under the proposal as a percentage of current-law scheduled benefits and the level of payable 

benefits under the proposal as a percentage of current-law payable benefits.

Table B2 provides two comparisons: (1) the percentage change in scheduled benefit levels at 

ages 65, 75, 85, and 95 under the proposal compared to scheduled benefits under current law; 

and (2) the percentage change in payable benefit levels at the same four ages under the proposal 

compared to payable benefits under current law. Each comparison assumes retirement and start 

of benefit receipt at age 65. Table B2 shows the same increases in benefits as shown in table B1

for age 65, and also shows the accumulating effects of the COLA provision (section 102) at older 

ages (zero in this case). Payable benefit levels increase under the provisions of the proposal in 

relation to current-law payable benefit levels.

The hypothetical workers represented in these tables reflect average career-earnings patterns of 

workers who started receiving retirement benefits under the Social Security program in recent 

years. The tables subdivide workers with very-low, low, and medium career-average earnings 

levels by their numbers of years of non-zero earnings.

Table B3 provides information helpful in interpreting the benefit illustrations in Tables B1 and 

B2. Percentages in Table B3 are based on tabulations from a 10-percent sample of newly-entitled 
Page 16 – The Honorable John Larson

retired workers in 2019. Table B3 displays the percentages of these newly-entitled retired

workers in 2019 that are closest to each of the illustrative examples and are:

1) “Dually Entitled”, meaning they received a higher spouse or widow(er) benefit based on 

the career earnings of their husband or wife,

2) “WEP” (Windfall Elimination Provision), meaning that they received a reduced benefit 

due to having a pension based on earnings that were not covered under the OASDI 

program (primarily certain government workers), and they had less than 30 years of 

substantial earnings that were taxable under the OASDI program,

3) “Foreign Born”, meaning that they entered the Social Security coverage area after birth 

(and generally after entering working ages), and

4) “All Others”, meaning they had none of the three characteristics listed above.

The extent to which retired-worker beneficiaries represented by each of the illustrative examples 

have any of the characteristics listed above (dually entitled, WEP, foreign born) is important 

because such individuals are less dependent on the OASDI benefit that relates to their own 

career-average earnings level. It should be noted that the distributions shown in Table B3 for 

retirees in 2019 will be changing somewhat for beneficiaries becoming entitled as retired-worker 

beneficiaries in the future.

Payroll Tax Effects

Table T compares the scheduled payroll tax levels under the provisions of the proposal to 

scheduled current-law payroll tax levels. Under the proposal, the full payroll tax rate of 12.4 

percent would apply to annual earnings in excess of $400,000 starting in 2025. As a result, Table 

T shows that the example worker with earnings at twice the current-law taxable maximum in 

2060 and later would have payroll tax liability increased by 100 percent. In addition, there would 

be effects on earnings (and therefore payroll taxes paid) due to the assumed behavioral response 

by employees and employers; these effects are not included in this table. Note that Table T does 

not reflect the effects of the NII tax provision (section 203).

Detailed Tables Containing Annual and Summary Projections

Enclosed with this letter are tables 1, 1a, 1b, 1b.n, 1c, 1d, and 1d.n, which provide annual and 

summary projections for the proposal.

Trust Fund Operations

Table 1 provides projections of the financial operations of the OASDI program under the 

proposal and shows that the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds would be able to pay scheduled 

benefits in full and on time for an additional 32 years assuming enactment of the 16 provisions. 

The year in which the combined reserves of the OASI and DI Trust Funds are projected to 

become depleted would change from 2034 under current law to 2066 under the proposal. Even 

after depletion of the trust fund reserves, however, the actuarial status of the program would be 

improved as continuing income would be sufficient to pay a higher percentage of scheduled 

benefits than under current law. Under current law, 80 percent of scheduled benefits are 

projected to be payable at trust fund reserve depletion in 2034, declining to 74 percent payable 
Page 17 – The Honorable John Larson

by 2097. Under this proposal, 100 percent of the proposed (higher) scheduled benefits would be 

fully payable through 2065, and 95 percent would be payable at trust fund reserve depletion in 

2066, increasing slightly to 98 percent payable by 2097.

The table shows the annual cost and income rates, annual balances, and trust fund ratios 

(reserves as percentage of annual program cost) for OASDI, as well as the change from current 

law in these cost rates, income rates, and annual balances. Included at the bottom of this table are 

summarized rates for the 75-year (long-range) period.

The proposal increases the annual balance (non-interest income minus program cost) for all 

projection years. For 2025 through 2034, during the period of temporary benefit enhancements, 

the annual balance is increased by 1.1 percent of current-law payroll for 2025, with generally 

decreasing improvements to about 1.0 percent for 2034. The improvement in annual balance then 

increases from 2.7 percent in 2035 to 3.7 percent in 2049, and then increases more gradually to 

4.0 percent in 2097.

Under the proposal, the annual deficit (negative annual balance) increases from 1.0 percent of 

current-law payroll for 2025 to 2.1 percent for 2034, primarily reflecting the effect of the 

temporary benefit enhancements. The annual deficit declines to 0.5 percent for 2035, and then 

continues to decline until it turns to a small positive annual balance for 2047-50. The annual 

balance turns negative again in 2051, after which the annual deficit increases to 1.2 percent for 

2077 and then generally declines to 0.3 percent for 2097. Under current law, the projected annual 

deficit for 2097 is 4.3 percent of payroll.

The actuarial deficit for the OASDI program over the 75-year projection period is reduced by 

3.14 percent of taxable payroll, from an actuarial deficit of 3.61 percent of payroll under current 

law to an actuarial deficit of 0.47 percent of taxable payroll under the proposal.

Program Transfers and Trust Fund Reserves

Column 4 of Table 1a provides a projection of the level of reserves for the combined OASI and 

DI Trust Funds, assuming enactment of the 16 Social Security provisions of the proposal. These 

trust fund reserve amounts are expressed in present value dollars discounted to January 1, 2023. 

The table indicates that the provisions include no new specified transfers of general revenue to 

the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds. For purpose of comparison, the OASI and DI Trust 

Fund reserves, expressed in present value dollars, are also shown for the current-law Social 

Security program both without and with the added proposal general fund transfers (zero in this 

case) in columns 6 and 7.

Note that negative values in columns 6 and 7 represent the “unfunded obligation” for the 

program through the year. The unfunded obligation is the present value of the shortfall of 

revenue needed to pay full scheduled benefits on a timely basis from the date of trust fund 

reserve depletion through the end of the indicated year. Gross Domestic Product (GDP),

expressed in present value dollars, is shown in column 5 for comparison with other values in the 

table.
Page 18 – The Honorable John Larson

Effect of the Social Security Provisions on the Federal Budget

Table 1b shows the projected effect, in present value discounted dollars, on the federal budget 

(unified-budget and on-budget) annual cash flows and balances, assuming enactment of the 16

Social Security provisions of the proposal. Our analysis provided in these tables reflects only the 

direct effects of these provisions on the OASI and DI Trust Funds and does not reflect the effects 

of these provisions on the General Fund of the Treasury under the on-budget operations of the 

federal government. Table 1b.n provides the estimated nominal dollar effect of enactment of the 

proposal on annual budget balances for years 2023 through 2032. All values in these tables 

represent the amount of change from the level projected under current law. In addition, changes 

reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits, not payable under the law after 

depletion of trust fund reserves, would still be paid using revenue provided from the General 

Fund of the Treasury. The reader should be cautioned that this presumption of payment of 

benefits beyond the resources of the trust funds is prohibited under current law and is also 

inconsistent with all past experience under the Social Security program.

Column 1 of Table 1b shows the added proposal general fund transfers (zero for this proposal).

Column 2 shows the net changes in OASDI cash flow from all provisions of the proposal.

We project the net effect of the proposal on unified budget cash flow (column 3) to be positive in 

years 2025 through 2034 because the cost of the temporary benefit enhancements does not 

exceed added revenue; we project even larger positive net effects in years 2035 and later after the 

temporary benefit enhancements have expired, due to the continuing revenue from the payroll 

tax newly applied to earnings above $400,000 in sections 201 and 202 and the NII tax newly 

applied to earnings above $400,000 in section 203.

Column 4 of Table 1b indicates that the effect of implementing the proposal would be a 

reduction of the theoretical federal debt held by the public, reaching about $20.5 trillion in

present value at the end of the 75-year projection period. Column 5 provides the projected effect 

of the proposal on the annual unified budget balances, including both the cash flow effect in 

column 3 and the additional interest on the accumulated debt in column 4. Columns 6 and 7 

indicate that the provisions of this proposal would have no expected direct effects on the onbudget cash flow, or on the total federal debt, in the future, because estimates provided here 

include only direct effects of the provisions on the OASI and DI Trust Funds.

It is important to note that we base these estimates on the intermediate assumptions of the 2023

Trustees Report, so these estimates are not consistent with estimates made by the Office of 

Management and Budget or the Congressional Budget Office based on their assumptions. In 

particular, all present values are discounted using trust fund yield assumptions under the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report.

Annual Trust Fund Operations as a Percent of GDP

Table 1c provides annual cost, annual expenditures (amount that would be payable), and annual 

tax income for the OASDI program expressed as a percentage of GDP for both current law and 

assuming enactment of the 16 Social Security provisions of the proposal. Showing the annual 

trust fund cash flows as a percentage of GDP provides an additional perspective on these trust 
Page 19 – The Honorable John Larson

fund operations in relation to the total value of goods and services produced in the United States. 

The relationship between income and cost is similar when expressed as a percentage of GDP to 

that when expressed as a percentage of taxable payroll (Table 1).

Effects on Trust Fund Reserves and Unfunded Obligations

Table 1d provides estimates of the changes in trust fund reserves and unfunded obligations on an 

annual basis, expressed in present value dollars discounted to January 1, 2023. Table 1d.n

provides the same estimates, expressed in nominal dollars, for years 2023 through 2032.

For the 75-year (long-range) period as a whole, the current-law unfunded obligation of $22.4

trillion would be reduced to $1.9 trillion in present value at the end of 2097, assuming enactment 

of the proposal. This change of $20.5 trillion results from:

• A $22.2 trillion net increase in revenue (column 2), primarily from additional payroll 

tax revenue due to the payroll tax being newly applied to earnings above $400,000 and 

from the NII tax being newly applied to earnings above $400,000, minus

• A $1.7 trillion net increase in cost (column 3), primarily from the 13 benefit 

enhancement provisions in Sections 101 through 113, and also from the additional 

benefits from earnings taxed above the current-law taxable maximum and the specified 

AWI increases in Sections 201 and 202.

We hope these estimates are helpful. Please let me know if we may provide further assistance.

Sincerely,

 Stephen C. Goss, ASA, MAAA

Chief Actuary

Enclosures
Table A—Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of the “Social Security 

2100 Act,” Introduced by Ranking Member Larson

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

for 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

Section 101) Increase the first PIA formula factor from 90 

percent to 93 percent for all beneficiaries with benefit 

entitlement for months in 2025 through 2034. Revert to 

current-law benefit levels for January 2035 and later ................ -0.04 3

Section 102) Use the higher of the change in the Consumer 

Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E) or the Consumer Price 

Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)

to temporarily calculate the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), 

effective for December 2024 through December 2033 COLAs. 

We estimate this new computation would increase the annual 

COLA by about 0.3 percentage point, on average. Revert to 

current-law benefit levels for January 2035 and later ................ -0.04 3

Section 103) Increase the special minimum PIA temporarily 

for workers who become newly eligible for retirement or 

disability benefits or die in 2025 through 2034. For those who 

become newly eligible or die in 2025 with 30 or more years of 

coverage (YOCs), set the minimum PIA equal to 125 percent 

of the 2024 Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) 

monthly poverty level. For those with under 30 YOCs, the 

PIA per YOC in excess of 10 YOCs is 125 percent of this 

poverty level calculation, divided by 20. For workers who 

become newly eligible or die in 2026 through 2034, index the 

initial PIA per YOC by growth in the national average wage 

index (AWI). A YOC is defined as a year in which 4 quarters 

of coverage are earned. The 30 and 10 YOC levels apply for

all workers, including those who die or become disabled under 

age 62. Revert to current-law benefit levels for January 2035

and later........................................................................................ 3 3

Section 104) Replace the current-law thresholds for federal 

income taxation of OASDI benefits with a single set of 

thresholds at $35,000 for single filers and $50,000 for joint 

filers, effective for tax years 2025 through 2034. Taxation of 

benefits revenues transferred to the Hospital Insurance (HI) 

Trust Fund would be the same for these tax years as if the 

current-law computation applied. Revert to current-law 

specifications for tax years 2035 and later.................................. -0.01 3
Table A—Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of the “Social Security 

2100 Act,” Introduced by Ranking Member Larson

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

for 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

Section 105) Establish an alternative benefit for non-divorced 

surviving spouses. The alternative benefit would equal 75 

percent of the sum of the survivor’s own worker benefit and 

the deceased worker’s PIA (including any actuarial reductions 

or delayed retirement credits (DRC)). If the deceased worker 

died before becoming entitled, use the age 62 actuarial 

reduction if deceased before age 62, or the applicable actuarial 

reduction/DRC for entitlement at the age of death if deceased 

after 62. The alternative benefit would not exceed the PIA of 

a hypothetical earner who earns the AWI every year, and who 

becomes eligible for retired-worker benefits in the same year 

in which the deceased worker became entitled to worker 

benefits or died (if before entitlement). The alternative benefit 

would be paid only if more than the current-law benefit. This 

benefit would be available temporarily for non-divorced 

surviving spouses with benefit entitlement for months in 2025

through 2034. Revert to current law benefit levels for January

2035 and later............................................................................... -0.02 3

Section 106) Provide a 5-percent uniform PIA increase starting 

with the 20th calendar year after the calendar year of initial 

eligibility, temporarily for 2025 through 2034. The uniform 

PIA increase is phased in at 1 percent per year from the 16th

calendar year through the 20th calendar year after the calendar 

year of initial eligibility. The uniform PIA increase is equal to 

the specified percent of the PIA of a worker who becomes 

newly eligible in the same year and had career-average 

earnings (AIME) equal to the AWI for the second year prior to 

initial eligibility. Auxiliary beneficiaries receive benefit 

enhancement based on PIA of governing worker. Revert to 

current law benefit levels for January 2035 and later................. -0.03 3
Table A—Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of the “Social Security 

2100 Act,” Introduced by Ranking Member Larson

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

for 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

Section 107) For workers caring for a child under age 12 or for

a dependent relative (a chronically dependent individual 

unable to perform at least two of five activities of daily living), 

provide a temporary “earnings credit” on their record to be 

used for computation of their benefit. If the individual has no 

earnings in the month, the earnings credit is one-half of the

AWI level for the second prior calendar year. If the worker 

has earnings less than the AWI of the second prior calendar 

year, the earnings credit is one-half of the AWI minus one-half 

of the earnings before the credit. Effective for workers who 

become newly eligible for retired worker or disabled worker 

benefits or die in 2025 through 2034, with all past caregiving 

years eligible to be counted. A limit of five caregiving credit 

years applies, with the most advantageous five years of 

caregiving used for benefit purposes. Revert to current law 

benefit levels for January 2035 and later .................................... -0.01 3

Section 108) Eliminate the DI waiting period after enactment 

of the proposal, effective for months that would be included in 

the waiting period from 2025 through 2034. Revert to current 

law for waiting period months in 2035 and later........................ -0.01 3

Section 109) End the DI benefit cliff temporarily for 

beneficiaries with earnings after initial disability entitlement

for months in 2025 through 2034. In this period, use a $1-for-

$2 offset for earnings above the blind substantial gainful 

activity (SGA) level. Revert to current law for years 2035 and 

later............................................................................................... -0.01 3

Section 110) Temporarily cease applying the Windfall 

Elimination Provision and the Government Pension Offset for 

all beneficiaries with benefit entitlement for months in 2025

through 2034. Revert to current-law benefit levels for January 

2035 and later............................................................................... -0.02 3

Section 111) Provide benefits for full-time elementary or 

secondary school students and at least half-time postsecondary school students, who are children of disabled, 

retired, or deceased workers, until attainment of age 26, for all 

eligible children with benefit entitlement for months in 2025

through 2034. Revert to current-law benefit levels for January

2035 and later............................................................................... -0.01 3
Table A—Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of the “Social Security 

2100 Act,” Introduced by Ranking Member Larson

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

for 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

Section 112) Provide benefits to children who are in the 

custody of a grandparent or other eligible relative for at least 

12 months and are receiving at least one-half of their financial 

support from the relative. Effective for all eligible children 

with benefit entitlement for months in 2025 through 2034. 

Revert to current-law benefit criteria for January 2035 and 

later............................................................................................... 3 3

Section 113) For any year where the AWI as computed would 

be lower than the AWI for any previous year, use the largest 

AWI from among all previous years for the purpose of 

computing the average indexed monthly earnings (AIME) and 

the PIA for all beneficiaries who become initially eligible for 

benefits two years after such year. This provision would apply 

for AWI computed for all years 2025 and later.......................... 3 3

Section 201 and Section 202) Apply the combined OASDI 

payroll tax rate on covered earnings above $400,000 paid in 

2025 and later, and tax all covered earnings once the currentlaw taxable maximum exceeds $400,000. Increase the 

computed level of the AWI for years after 2024 by amounts 

ranging from 0.5 percent for 2025 to 0.9 percent for 2047 and 

later. Credit the additional earnings taxed for benefit purposes 

by: (a) calculating a second average indexed monthly earnings 

(“AIME+”) reflecting only earnings taxed above the currentlaw taxable maximum, (b) applying a 1 percent factor on this 

newly computed “AIME+” to develop a second component of 

the PIA, and (c) adding this second component to the currentlaw PIA........................................................................................ 2.16 2.47

Section 203) Apply a separate 12.4-percent tax on net 

investment income (NII), as defined in the Affordable Care 

Act (ACA), payable to the OASI and DI Trust Funds with an 

unindexed threshold of $400,000, effective 2025 and later. 

The NII tax would apply to the lesser of NII and the excess of 

modified adjusted income (MAGI) above the unindexed 

threshold of $400,000. This single threshold would apply 

regardless of tax filing status......................................... 1.20 1.53
Table A—Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of the “Social Security 

2100 Act,” Introduced by Ranking Member Larson

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

for 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

Section 303) Increase the dollar level applicable for attorney 

fees entered into under the “fee agreement” process. Attorney 

fees would be the lesser of 25 percent of past-due benefits or a 

dollar level equaling: $4,000 * AWI for 2 years prior to year 

affected / AWI for 1989. This formula yields a dollar level of

$12,056 for 2023, which would be increased in future years by 

changes in the AWI. (The dollar level under current law is 

$7,200 effective November 30, 2022.) Effective for fee 

agreements entered into after enactment..................................... 3 3

Total for all provisions, including interaction....................... 3.14 4.00

1Under current law, the estimated long-range OASDI actuarial balance is -3.61 percent of taxable payroll. 2Under current law, the estimated 75th year annual balance is -4.35 percent of taxable payroll.

3Negligible; that is, between -0.005 and 0.005 percent of taxable payroll. 

Notes: All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2023 OASDI Trustees Report. 

 Estimates of individual provisions appear on a stand-alone basis relative to current law, unless otherwise stated.

Social Security Administration

Office of the Chief Actuary

July 12, 2023
Proposal Proposal

Year Scheduled to Payable to

Attain Payroll Tax and Minimum Current Law Current Law

Age 65 (Wage-Indexed (CPI-Indexed COLA5 Benefit Formula6 Benefit7 Total Scheduled Payable

2023 Dollars) 2023 Dollars)

2027 877 932 0.9 3.2 0.0 4.1 104 104

2040 894 1,131 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 128

2060 899 1,421 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 134

2090 899 1,992 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 132

2027 877 932 0.9 3.2 0.0 4.1 104 104

2040 894 1,131 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 128

2060 899 1,421 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 134

2090 899 1,992 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 132

2027 877 932 0.9 3.2 0.0 4.1 104 104

2040 894 1,131 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 128

2060 899 1,421 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 134

2090 899 1,992 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 132

2027 877 932 0.9 3.2 0.0 4.1 104 104

2040 894 1,131 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 128

2060 899 1,421 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 134

2090 899 1,992 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 132

2027 1,149 1,221 0.9 2.4 0.0 3.3 103 103

2040 1,171 1,480 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 128

2060 1,177 1,860 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 134

2090 1,176 2,608 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 132

2027 1,149 1,221 0.9 2.4 0.0 3.3 103 103

2040 1,171 1,480 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 128

2060 1,177 1,860 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 134

2090 1,176 2,608 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 132

2027 1,149 1,221 0.9 2.4 0.0 3.3 103 103

2040 1,171 1,480 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 128

2060 1,177 1,860 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 134

2090 1,176 2,608 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 132

2027 1,896 2,015 0.9 1.4 0.0 2.3 102 102

2040 1,931 2,442 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 128

2060 1,942 3,067 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 134

2090 1,940 4,301 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 132

2027 1,896 2,015 0.9 1.4 0.0 2.3 102 102

2040 1,931 2,442 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 128

2060 1,942 3,067 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 134

2090 1,940 4,301 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 132

2027 2,509 2,666 0.9 1.1 0.0 2.0 102 102

2040 2,556 3,231 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 128

2060 2,570 4,060 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 134

2090 2,568 5,692 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 132

2027 3,065 3,258 0.9 0.9 0.0 1.8 102 102

2040 3,127 3,953 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 128

2060 3,136 4,955 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 134

2090 3,135 6,949 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 100 132

2027 3,065 3,258 0.9 0.9 0.0 1.8 102 102

2040 3,127 3,953 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.4 100 129

2060 3,136 4,955 0.0 2.2 0.0 2.2 102 137

2090 3,135 6,949 0.0 3.4 0.0 3.4 103 137

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report.

 Very-Low-AIME ($16,537 for 20231) 20-Year Scaled Earner (5.0% of Retirees 2)

Table B1. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Becoming Newly Entitled at age 65 

The "Social Security 2100 Act," Introduced by Ranking Member Larson

Benefit Ratios

Scheduled Benefit Level Percent Change at age 65

Current Law Scheduled

Monthly Benefits4

(Percent change) (Percents)

 Very-Low-AIME ($16,537 for 20231) 40-Year Scaled Earner (5.4% of Retirees 2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($16,537 for 20231

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (5.8% of Retirees 2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($16,537 for 20231

) 14-Year Scaled Earner (3.6% of Retirees 2)

 Low-AIME ($29,766 for 20231

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (18.8% of Retirees 2)

 Low-AIME ($29,766 for 20231

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (3.8% of Retirees 2)

 Low-AIME ($29,766 for 20231

) 20-Year Scaled Earner (1.4% of Retirees 2)

 Medium-AIME ($66,147 for 20231

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (27.5% of Retirees 2)

 Medium-AIME ($66,147 for 20231

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (1.8% of Retirees 2)

 High-AIME ($105,835 for 20231

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (19.3% of Retirees 2)

 Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($160,200 for 20231

) 43-Year Steady Earner (7.6% of Retirees 2)

 Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($320,400 for 20231

) 43-Year Steady Earner3

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration July 12, 2023

Average of highest 35 years of taxable earnings wage indexed to 2023. For the Maximum and Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME workers, we show one times and two times the 2023 taxable 

maximum, respectively.

Projected percent of newly entitled retired worker beneficiaries in 2050 with current-law AIME levels and years of covered earnings closest to AIME levels and close to years of covered earnings 

shown. See details in Note 1 on table B3.

Of the 7.6 percent of retirees with current-law AIME closest to the Maximum-Current-Law level, about 33 percent (or 2.5 percent of all retirees) would have an AIME closer to the Twice 

Maximum-Current-Law level if their earnings were not limited by annual taxable maximums.

After the trust fund reserves deplete under current law continuing taxes are expected to be enough to pay about three fourths of scheduled benefits.

Starting Dec 2024 through Dec 2033, compute the COLA using increases in the higher of the CPI-E or CPI-W, producing 0.3% higher annual COLAs on average. Beginning in Dec 2034, revert 

back to current-law benefit levels.

For 2025-34, for all eligible beneficiaries, increase the 90 percent PIA factor to 93 percent. Beginning in 2035, revert back to current-law benefit levels. Starting in 2025, apply the OASDI payroll 

tax rate on earnings above $400,000, and tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $400,000. Credit the additional earnings for benefit purposes by: (a) calculating a second 

average indexed monthly earnings ("AIME+") reflecting only earnings taxed above the current law taxable maximum, (b) applying a 1 percent factor on this newly computed "AIME+" to develop 

a second component of the PIA, and (c) adding this second PIA component to the first PIA component. The assumed behavioral response to increased payroll tax lowers reported wages, and thus 

the level of the AWI starting in 2025. In response to this, increase the level of the computed AWI after 2024 by amounts ranging from 0.5% for 2025 to 0.9% for 2047 and later. 

For beneficiaries who become newly eligible or die in 2025, increase the minimum PIA such that a worker with 30/10 years of coverage would receive an initial PIA of at least 125%/0% of the 

monthly HHS poverty level for 2024. For beneficiaries who become newly eligible or die after 2025, the initial minimum PIA level would be adjusted by the AWI. Beginning in 2035, revert to 

current-law benefit levels. The Minimum Benefit percent change is calculated after all other provisions, so that the Proposal Benefit Amount is at least the Minimum Benefit, where applicable.

This analysis reflects only the provisions of the proposal identified in this table and described in the footnotes above.
Year 

Attain

Age 65 Age 65 Age 75 Age 855 Age 955 Age 65 Age 75 Age 855 Age 955

2027 104.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 104.1 127.1 129.0 132.5

2040 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 128.2 129.6 134.3 131.2

2060 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 134.4 131.2 131.8 132.2

2090 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 132.2 132.5 4 4

2027 104.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 104.1 127.1 129.0 132.5

2040 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 128.2 129.6 134.3 131.2

2060 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 134.4 131.2 131.8 132.2

2090 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 132.2 132.5 4 4

2027 104.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 104.1 127.1 129.0 132.5

2040 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 128.2 129.6 134.3 131.2

2060 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 134.4 131.2 131.8 132.2

2090 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 132.2 132.5 4 4

2027 104.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 104.1 127.1 129.0 132.5

2040 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 128.2 129.6 134.3 131.2

2060 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 134.4 131.2 131.8 132.2

2090 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 132.2 132.5 4 4

2027 103.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 103.3 127.1 129.0 132.5

2040 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 128.2 129.6 134.3 131.2

2060 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 134.4 131.3 131.8 132.2

2090 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 132.2 132.5 4 4

2027 103.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 103.3 127.1 129.0 132.5

2040 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 128.2 129.6 134.3 131.2

2060 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 134.4 131.3 131.8 132.2

2090 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 132.2 132.5 4 4

2027 103.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 103.3 127.1 129.0 132.5

2040 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 128.2 129.6 134.3 131.2

2060 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 134.4 131.3 131.8 132.2

2090 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 132.2 132.5 4 4

2027 102.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 102.3 127.1 129.0 132.5

2040 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 128.2 129.6 134.3 131.2

2060 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 134.4 131.2 131.7 132.2

2090 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 132.2 132.5 4 4

2027 102.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 102.3 127.1 129.0 132.5

2040 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 128.2 129.6 134.3 131.2

2060 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 134.4 131.2 131.7 132.2

2090 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 132.2 132.5 4 4

2027 102.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 102.0 127.1 129.0 132.5

2040 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 128.2 129.7 134.3 131.2

2060 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 134.4 131.3 131.8 132.2

2090 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 132.2 132.5 4 4

2027 101.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 101.8 127.1 129.0 132.5

2040 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 128.2 129.7 134.3 131.2

2060 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 134.4 131.2 131.8 132.2

2090 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 132.2 132.5 4 4

2027 101.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 101.8 127.1 129.0 132.5

2040 100.4 100.4 100.4 100.4 128.7 130.1 134.8 131.7

2060 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.2 137.3 134.0 134.6 135.0

2090 103.4 103.4 103.4 103.4 136.6 136.9 4 4

1

2

3

4

5

Note:

-

-

-

-

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration July 12, 2023

the 20th and later year after the year of initial eligibility, temporarily for 2025-34. Beginning in 2035, revert back to current-law benefit levels.

Starting Dec 2024 through Dec 2033, compute the COLA using increases in the higher of the CPI-E or CPI-W, producing 0.3% higher annual COLAs on average. 

Beginning in Dec 2034, revert back to current-law benefit levels.

For 2025-34, for all eligible beneficiaries, increase the 90 percent PIA factor to 93 percent. Beginning in 2035, revert back to current-law benefit levels. Starting in 

2025, apply the OASDI payroll tax rate on earnings above $400,000, and tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $400,000. Credit the additional 

earnings for benefit purposes by: (a) calculating a second average indexed monthly earnings ("AIME+") reflecting only earnings taxed above the current law taxable 

maximum, (b) applying a 1 percent factor on this newly computed "AIME+" to develop a second component of the PIA, and (c) adding this second PIA component to 

the first PIA component. The assumed behavioral response to increased payroll tax lowers reported wages, and thus the level of the AWI starting in 2025. In response to 

this, increase the level of the computed AWI after 2024 by amounts ranging from 0.5% for 2025 to 0.9% for 2047 and later. 

For beneficiaries who become newly eligible or die in 2025, increase the minimum PIA such that a worker with 30/10 years of coverage would receive an initial PIA of 

at least 125%/0% of the monthly HHS poverty level for 2024. For beneficiaries who become newly eligible or die after 2025, the initial minimum PIA level would be 

adjusted by the AWI. Beginning in 2035, revert to current-law benefit levels. 

This analysis reflects only the provisions of the proposal identified in Table B1 and described in the notes above.

 Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($160,200 for 20231) 43-Year Steady Earner (7.6% of Retirees2)

 Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($320,400 for 20231) 43-Year Steady Earner3

Average of highest 35 years of taxable earnings wage indexed to 2023. For the Maximum and Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME workers, we show one times and two 

times the 2023 taxable maximum, respectively.

Projected percent of newly entitled retired worker beneficiaries in 2050 with current-law AIME levels and years of covered earnings closest to AIME levels and close to 

years of covered earnings shown. See details in Note 1 on table B3.

Of the 7.6 percent of retirees with current-law AIME closest to the Maximum-Current-Law level, about 33 percent (or 2.5 percent of all retirees) would have an AIME 

closer to the Twice Maximum-Current-Law level if their earnings were not limited by annual taxable maximums.

The proposal payable benefit as percent of current law payable benefit is not presented for years of payment beyond the 75-year projection period.

Increase the PIA by a percent of a steady-AWI worker's PIA beginning at 1 percent for the 16th calendar year after the year of initial eligibility, increasing to 5 percent for 

 Low-AIME ($29,766 for 20231) 44-Year Scaled Earner (18.8% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($29,766 for 20231) 30-Year Scaled Earner (3.8% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($29,766 for 20231) 20-Year Scaled Earner (1.4% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($66,147 for 20231) 44-Year Scaled Earner (27.5% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($66,147 for 20231

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (1.8% of Retirees2)

 High-AIME ($105,835 for 20231) 44-Year Scaled Earner (19.3% of Retirees2)

(Percent) (Percent)

 Very-Low-AIME ($16,537 for 20231) 40-Year Scaled Earner (5.4% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($16,537 for 20231) 30-Year Scaled Earner (5.8% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($16,537 for 20231

) 20-Year Scaled Earner (5.0% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($16,537 for 20231) 14-Year Scaled Earner (3.6% of Retirees2)

Table B2. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Becoming Newly Entitled age 65 

The "Social Security 2100 Act," Introduced by Ranking Member Larson

Proposal Scheduled Benefit as Percent of Proposal Payable Benefit as Percent of 

Current Law Scheduled Benefit Current Law Payable Benefit
Category 

(AIME and Years of Covered Earnings Close to) Dually Entitled2 WEP3 Foreign Born All Others4

Very-Low-AIME ($12,528 for 20191):

40-Year Scaled Earner (2.2% of Retirees) 25 6 7 64

30-Year Scaled Earner (5.9% of Retirees) 26 8 18 51

20-Year Scaled Earner (5.6% of Retirees) 26 14 30 37

14-Year Scaled Earner (4.6% of Retirees) 22 18 52 20

Low-AIME ($22,548 for 20191

):

44-Year Scaled Earner (13.9% of Retirees) 8 2 783

30-Year Scaled Earner (6.3% of Retirees) 10 8 29 54

20-Year Scaled Earner (2.1% of Retirees) 9 19 49 29

Medium-AIME ($50,112 for 20191

):

44-Year Scaled Earner (26.5% of Retirees) 1 1 792

30-Year Scaled Earner (3.1% of Retirees) 1 12 42 49

High-AIME ($80,184 for 20191

):

44-Year Scaled Earner (20.4% of Retirees) 0 1 991

Maximum-AIME ($132,900 for 20191

):

Steady Earner (9.4% of Retirees) 0 0 991

1

2

3

4 Not foreign born, not dually entitled by the end of 2021, and not reduced by WEP by the end of 2021.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration June 17, 2023

Table B3. Characteristics of Retired Worker Beneficiaries Becoming Newly Entitled in 2019

Percent of Beneficiaries Within Each Category That Are:

Note 1: Table B3 displays certain characteristics of newly-entitled retired worker beneficiaries in 2019 who are similar to the illustrative hypothetical workers shown in tables 

B1 and B2. The categories shown here include those workers with AIME closest to the earnings level shown, and with years of covered earnings close to the number shown. In 

particular: 

- For the Very-Low-AIME category, 

- workers included in the "40-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 35+ years of covered earnings; 

- workers included in the "30-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 25-34 years of covered earnings; 

- workers included in the "20-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 18-24 years of covered earnings; 

- workers included in the "14-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have less than 18 years of covered earnings.

- For the Low-AIME category, 

- workers included in the "44-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 35+ years of covered earnings; 

- workers included in the "30-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 25-34 years of covered earnings; 

- workers included in the "20-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have less than 25 years of covered earnings.

- For the Medium-AIME category, 

- workers included in the "44-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 35+ years of covered earnings; 

- workers included in the "30-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have less than 35 years of covered earnings.

- Workers included in the High-AIME "44-Year Scaled Earner" category have all numbers of years of covered earnings.

- Workers included in the Maximum-Current-Law-AIME "Steady Earner" category have all numbers of years of covered earnings.

Note 2: The percentages in each category are based on tabulations of a 10-percent sample of newly entitled retired-worker beneficiaries in 2019 (308,569 records). We can be 

95 percent confident that each of the values shown above is within 1.4 percentage points of the value we would find using 100 percent of the retirees in 2019.

Note 3: The sum of the percentages for each category (sum across rows) could be greater than 100 percent because some beneficiaries can be classified in more than one of the 

following groups: dually entitled, WEP, and foreign born. 

Average of highest 35 years of taxable earnings wage indexed to 2019.

Values in this column are percentages of retired workers newly entitled in 2019 who were also entitled to a higher benefit based on someone else’s account by the end of 

2021. The percentage that will ever become dually entitled is higher for most categories, because some retired workers newly entitled in 2019 will first become dually 

entitled after 2021.

Values in this column are percentages of retired workers newly entitled in 2019 who had their benefit reduced based on receipt of a pension from government employment 

under the windfall elimination provision (WEP) by the end of 2021. The percentage that will ever be reduced by WEP is higher for each category, because some retired 

workers newly entitled in 2019 will first receive a government pension after 2018.
Proposal Scheduled Payroll Taxes

Earnings Taxable Percent of Current Law

in Year (Wage-Indexed (CPI-Indexed Maximum2

2023 Dollars) 2023 Dollars) (Percents)

2027 171 182 0.0 100

2040 171 216 0.0 100

2060 171 270 0.0 100

2090 171 379 0.0 100

2027 308 327 0.0 100

2040 308 389 0.0 100

2060 308 486 0.0 100

2090 308 682 0.0 100

2027 684 726 0.0 100

2040 684 865 0.0 100

2060 684 1,080 0.0 100

2090 684 1,515 0.0 100

2027 1,094 1,162 0.0 100

2040 1,094 1,384 0.0 100

2060 1,094 1,729 0.0 100

2090 1,094 2,423 0.0 100

2027 1,655 1,759 0.0 100

2040 1,655 2,094 0.0 100

2060 1,655 2,617 0.0 100

2090 1,655 3,668 0.0 100

2027 1,655 1,759 0.0 100

2040 1,655 2,094 70.3 170

2060 1,655 2,617 100.0 200

2090 1,655 3,668 100.0 200

1

2

98th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($320,400 in 2023) Twice Current-Law Maximum Earnings Level

Table T. Changes in Payroll Tax Contributions (Employee + Employer) for Workers with OASDI Covered Earnings in the Year

The "Social Security 2100 Act," Introduced by Ranking Member Larson

Scheduled Payroll Taxes Percent Change 

Current Law Scheduled

Monthly Total Payroll Taxes

(Percent change) 

26th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($16,537 in 2023)

40th Percentile Earner1

 in Year ($29,766 in 2023)

69th Percentile Earner1

 in Year ($66,147 in 2023)

85th Percentile Earner1

 in Year ($105,835 in 2023)

94th Percentile Earner1

 in Year ($160,200 in 2023) Current-Law Maximum Earnings Level

Percentile among all workers with any covered earnings in 2023 (including earnings both above and below the current-law taxable maximum earnings level). We include those who 

will die or become disabled before reaching retirement age, and those who will not earn enough in their career to become fully insured for retired worker benefits. Thus, these 

percentiles are not directly comparable to the percentages in the B tables, which are based on lifetime earnings, and include only those who survive and become eligible for retirement 

benefits.

Apply the OASDI payroll tax rate on covered earnings above $400,000 starting in 2025, and tax all covered earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $400,000. In 

addition, there would be effects on earnings (and therefore payroll taxes paid) due to the assumed behavioral response, which are not included here.

This analysis reflects only the provisions of the proposal identified in this table and described in the footnotes above. In particular, the table does not reflect the effects of section 203, 

the NII tax provision.

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration July 12, 2023
Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2023 14.53 13.29 -1.24 204 0.00 0.00 0.00

2024 14.87 12.89 -1.98 187 0.00 0.00 0.00

2025 15.97 14.95 -1.02 158 0.92 1.98 1.05

2026 16.26 15.19 -1.07 146 1.03 2.11 1.08

2027 16.51 15.28 -1.24 135 1.13 2.18 1.05

2028 16.77 15.38 -1.39 123 1.21 2.25 1.04

2029 17.01 15.48 -1.53 112 1.29 2.32 1.03

2030 17.25 15.58 -1.66 101 1.38 2.40 1.02

2031 17.46 15.69 -1.77 89 1.46 2.47 1.02

2032 17.68 15.79 -1.89 78 1.54 2.55 1.01

2033 17.88 15.87 -2.02 66 1.61 2.62 1.00

2034 18.07 15.94 -2.13 55 1.69 2.68 0.99

2035 16.54 16.00 -0.54 47 0.06 2.73 2.67

2036 16.59 16.07 -0.53 45 0.04 2.79 2.75

2037 16.66 16.13 -0.53 42 0.03 2.85 2.83

2038 16.72 16.20 -0.51 39 0.02 2.92 2.89

2039 16.77 16.28 -0.49 36 0.02 2.99 2.96

2040 16.80 16.35 -0.45 34 0.02 3.06 3.03

2041 16.83 16.43 -0.40 31 0.02 3.13 3.11

2042 16.84 16.51 -0.33 29 0.02 3.21 3.19

2043 16.85 16.59 -0.26 28 0.02 3.29 3.27

2044 16.87 16.68 -0.19 26 0.02 3.37 3.35

2045 16.89 16.76 -0.13 26 0.02 3.45 3.43

2046 16.90 16.85 -0.06 25 0.02 3.54 3.51

2047 16.93 16.94 0.01 25 0.02 3.63 3.60

2048 16.95 16.99 0.04 26 0.03 3.68 3.65

2049 16.98 17.01 0.03 26 0.03 3.69 3.67

2050 17.02 17.03 0.01 27 0.03 3.71 3.68

2051 17.05 17.04 0.00 27 0.03 3.72 3.69

2052 17.09 17.06 -0.03 27 0.03 3.73 3.70

2053 17.14 17.08 -0.06 27 0.03 3.75 3.71

2054 17.20 17.10 -0.10 27 0.04 3.76 3.72

2055 17.27 17.11 -0.15 27 0.04 3.77 3.74

2056 17.34 17.13 -0.21 26 0.04 3.78 3.74

2057 17.42 17.15 -0.27 25 0.04 3.79 3.75

2058 17.50 17.16 -0.34 24 0.04 3.80 3.76

2059 17.58 17.18 -0.41 22 0.05 3.81 3.77

2060 17.66 17.20 -0.47 20 0.05 3.82 3.77

2061 17.74 17.21 -0.53 17 0.05 3.83 3.78

2062 17.81 17.23 -0.58 15 0.05 3.84 3.79

2063 17.88 17.24 -0.63 12 0.05 3.85 3.80

2064 17.94 17.26 -0.68 8 0.06 3.86 3.81

2065 18.00 17.27 -0.73 5 0.06 3.87 3.82

2066 18.06 17.29 -0.78 1 0.06 3.88 3.82

2067 18.12 17.30 -0.82 ---- 0.06 3.89 3.83

2068 18.18 17.31 -0.86 ---- 0.06 3.90 3.84

2069 18.24 17.33 -0.91 ---- 0.06 3.91 3.84

2070 18.30 17.34 -0.96 ---- 0.07 3.92 3.85

2071 18.35 17.35 -1.00 ---- 0.07 3.93 3.86

2072 18.40 17.37 -1.03 ---- 0.07 3.94 3.87

2073 18.45 17.38 -1.07 ---- 0.07 3.94 3.87

2074 18.50 17.39 -1.11 ---- 0.07 3.95 3.88

2075 18.54 17.40 -1.13 ---- 0.07 3.96 3.89

2076 18.56 17.41 -1.15 ---- 0.07 3.97 3.89

2077 18.58 17.42 -1.16 ---- 0.07 3.97 3.90

2078 18.58 17.43 -1.15 ---- 0.08 3.98 3.90

2079 18.57 17.43 -1.13 ---- 0.08 3.99 3.91

2080 18.54 17.44 -1.10 ---- 0.08 3.99 3.92

2081 18.51 17.44 -1.07 ---- 0.08 4.00 3.92

2082 18.47 17.45 -1.02 ---- 0.08 4.00 3.93

2083 18.42 17.45 -0.97 ---- 0.08 4.01 3.93

2084 18.37 17.45 -0.91 ---- 0.08 4.02 3.94

2085 18.31 17.45 -0.85 ---- 0.08 4.02 3.94

2086 18.24 17.46 -0.78 ---- 0.08 4.03 3.95

2087 18.17 17.46 -0.71 ---- 0.08 4.03 3.95

2088 18.10 17.46 -0.64 ---- 0.08 4.04 3.96

2089 18.03 17.46 -0.57 ---- 0.08 4.04 3.96

2090 17.97 17.46 -0.51 ---- 0.08 4.05 3.97

2091 17.92 17.46 -0.46 ---- 0.08 4.05 3.97

2092 17.88 17.46 -0.42 ---- 0.08 4.06 3.98

2093 17.85 17.47 -0.38 ---- 0.08 4.06 3.98

2094 17.83 17.47 -0.36 ---- 0.08 4.07 3.99

2095 17.82 17.47 -0.35 ---- 0.08 4.07 3.99

2096 17.82 17.48 -0.34 ---- 0.08 4.08 4.00

2097 17.83 17.48 -0.35 ---- 0.08 4.08 4.00

2098 17.85 17.49 -0.36 ---- 0.08 4.08 4.00

Summarized Rates: OASDI Summarized Rates: OASDI

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

2023 - 2097 17.64% 17.17% -0.47% 2066 0.26% 3.39% 3.14%

Office of the Chief Actuary

Note: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration 1

Under current law the year of combined Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. July 12, 2023

The "Social Security 2100 Act," Introduced by Ranking Member Larson

Year of reserve 

depletion1

Proposal Change from Current Law

Expressed as a percentage of current-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of current-law

taxable payroll
Table 1a - General Fund Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Reserves, and Theoretical OASDI Reserves

Percentage

of Payroll

Annual

Amounts

Accumulated as of 

End of Year

Gross Domestic 

Product

Without General

Fund Transfers

With Plan General

Fund Transfers

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,713.0 26,284.9 2,713.0 2,713.0

2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,522.6 26,707.0 2,522.6 2,522.6

2025 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,423.1 27,262.2 2,318.9 2,318.9

2026 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,315.9 27,784.5 2,102.7 2,102.7

2027 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,189.9 28,258.1 1,868.6 1,868.6

2028 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,046.4 28,650.7 1,616.7 1,616.7

2029 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,886.0 29,001.3 1,347.3 1,347.3

2030 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,709.3 29,305.1 1,061.3 1,061.3

2031 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,519.4 29,555.9 761.5 761.5

2032 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,315.7 29,735.0 447.8 447.8

2033 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,099.0 29,788.9 122.1 122.1

2034 0.0 0.0 0.0 871.0 29,697.3 -213.2 -213.2

2035 0.0 0.0 0.0 815.1 29,540.6 -555.4 -555.4

2036 0.0 0.0 0.0 761.0 29,362.7 -902.4 -902.4

2037 0.0 0.0 0.0 707.4 29,165.2 -1,254.1 -1,254.1

2038 0.0 0.0 0.0 655.6 28,971.6 -1,608.5 -1,608.5

2039 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.8 28,770.2 -1,964.5 -1,964.5

2040 0.0 0.0 0.0 562.5 28,572.1 -2,320.7 -2,320.7

2041 0.0 0.0 0.0 524.2 28,370.9 -2,675.8 -2,675.8

2042 0.0 0.0 0.0 492.9 28,171.3 -3,029.0 -3,029.0

2043 0.0 0.0 0.0 468.7 27,969.5 -3,380.1 -3,380.1

2044 0.0 0.0 0.0 451.5 27,770.4 -3,729.4 -3,729.4

2045 0.0 0.0 0.0 441.2 27,574.9 -4,077.1 -4,077.1

2046 0.0 0.0 0.0 437.5 27,381.0 -4,423.4 -4,423.4

2047 0.0 0.0 0.0 440.4 27,192.9 -4,768.7 -4,768.7

2048 0.0 0.0 0.0 446.1 27,007.8 -5,113.1 -5,113.1

2049 0.0 0.0 0.0 450.7 26,827.3 -5,457.2 -5,457.2

2050 0.0 0.0 0.0 453.8 26,652.1 -5,801.2 -5,801.2

2051 0.0 0.0 0.0 455.3 26,481.3 -6,145.1 -6,145.1

2052 0.0 0.0 0.0 454.4 26,310.9 -6,489.8 -6,489.8

2053 0.0 0.0 0.0 450.5 26,140.8 -6,835.9 -6,835.9

2054 0.0 0.0 0.0 442.9 25,969.9 -7,183.9 -7,183.9

2055 0.0 0.0 0.0 430.8 25,800.2 -7,534.7 -7,534.7

2056 0.0 0.0 0.0 413.6 25,633.3 -7,888.6 -7,888.6

2057 0.0 0.0 0.0 391.1 25,469.9 -8,246.0 -8,246.0

2058 0.0 0.0 0.0 362.8 25,306.2 -8,607.1 -8,607.1

2059 0.0 0.0 0.0 329.0 25,142.5 -8,972.0 -8,972.0

2060 0.0 0.0 0.0 289.9 24,979.8 -9,340.3 -9,340.3

2061 0.0 0.0 0.0 246.0 24,816.8 -9,711.5 -9,711.5

2062 0.0 0.0 0.0 197.8 24,653.2 -10,085.2 -10,085.2

2063 0.0 0.0 0.0 145.8 24,489.6 -10,461.1 -10,461.1

2064 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.1 24,325.4 -10,838.7 -10,838.7

2065 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.7 24,159.6 -11,218.0 -11,218.0

2066 0.0 0.0 0.0 -32.0 23,992.3 -11,598.6 -11,598.6

2067 0.0 0.0 0.0 -97.9 23,826.4 -11,980.4 -11,980.4

2068 0.0 0.0 0.0 -166.9 23,661.3 -12,363.4 -12,363.4

2069 0.0 0.0 0.0 -239.0 23,494.1 -12,747.5 -12,747.5

2070 0.0 0.0 0.0 -314.1 23,327.4 -13,132.8 -13,132.8

2071 0.0 0.0 0.0 -391.9 23,162.3 -13,518.8 -13,518.8

2072 0.0 0.0 0.0 -472.1 22,998.9 -13,905.3 -13,905.3

2073 0.0 0.0 0.0 -554.6 22,835.8 -14,292.2 -14,292.2

2074 0.0 0.0 0.0 -639.1 22,675.7 -14,679.2 -14,679.2

2075 0.0 0.0 0.0 -724.9 22,519.3 -15,065.7 -15,065.7

2076 0.0 0.0 0.0 -811.4 22,365.3 -15,450.9 -15,450.9

2077 0.0 0.0 0.0 -897.7 22,214.6 -15,834.0 -15,834.0

2078 0.0 0.0 0.0 -983.0 22,067.0 -16,214.3 -16,214.3

2079 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,066.3 21,924.5 -16,590.8 -16,590.8

2080 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,146.8 21,785.0 -16,962.8 -16,962.8

2081 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,224.1 21,648.5 -17,330.0 -17,330.0

2082 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,297.6 21,515.6 -17,691.7 -17,691.7

2083 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,366.9 21,386.7 -18,047.7 -18,047.7

2084 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,431.5 21,261.1 -18,397.4 -18,397.4

2085 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,491.1 21,137.6 -18,740.7 -18,740.7

2086 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,545.5 21,016.6 -19,077.2 -19,077.2

2087 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,594.4 20,898.4 -19,406.9 -19,406.9

2088 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,638.0 20,781.3 -19,729.9 -19,729.9

2089 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,676.6 20,665.0 -20,046.4 -20,046.4

2090 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,710.7 20,549.6 -20,357.0 -20,357.0

2091 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,740.9 20,434.4 -20,662.3 -20,662.3

2092 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,768.0 20,319.1 -20,963.0 -20,963.0

2093 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,792.7 20,202.9 -21,259.9 -21,259.9

2094 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,815.8 20,085.9 -21,553.7 -21,553.7

2095 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,837.9 19,968.5 -21,845.0 -21,845.0

2096 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,859.5 19,850.2 -22,134.3 -22,134.3

2097 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,881.3 19,730.8 -22,422.2 -22,422.2

2098 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,903.8 19,610.4 -22,709.3 -22,709.3

Total 2023-2097 0.0

Notes: Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report.

 Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.3%. Office of the Chief Actuary

1 Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption Social Security Administration

 that the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury. July 12, 2023

Calendar

Year

The "Social Security 2100 Act," Introduced by Ranking Member Larson

Proposal General Fund Transfers Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2023

Proposal

Total OASDI

Trust Fund

Reserves 

at End of Year

Theoretical Social Security1

with Borrowing Authority

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 

1-1-2023 Net OASDI Trust Fund Reserves at End of Year
Table 1b - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget Scoring1

 and Federal Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI (Present Value Dollars)

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow2

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year3

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Cash Flow

Change in Total

Federal Debt

 Subject to Limit 

End Of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 104.1 104.1 -104.1 104.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2026 0.0 109.1 109.1 -213.2 111.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2027 0.0 108.1 108.1 -321.3 113.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2028 0.0 108.4 108.4 -429.7 117.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2029 0.0 109.0 109.0 -538.7 121.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2030 0.0 109.3 109.3 -648.0 125.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2031 0.0 109.9 109.9 -757.9 130.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2032 0.0 110.0 110.0 -868.0 136.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2033 0.0 109.0 109.0 -976.9 144.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2034 0.0 107.3 107.3 -1,084.2 150.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2035 0.0 286.3 286.3 -1,370.5 334.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2036 0.0 292.9 292.9 -1,663.4 354.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2037 0.0 298.1 298.1 -1,961.5 373.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2038 0.0 302.7 302.7 -2,264.2 391.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2039 0.0 307.2 307.2 -2,571.4 409.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2040 0.0 311.8 311.8 -2,883.2 428.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2041 0.0 316.8 316.8 -3,200.0 447.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2042 0.0 321.9 321.9 -3,521.8 467.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2043 0.0 326.9 326.9 -3,848.8 486.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2044 0.0 332.2 332.2 -4,180.9 506.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2045 0.0 337.3 337.3 -4,518.3 527.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2046 0.0 342.7 342.7 -4,860.9 547.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2047 0.0 348.2 348.2 -5,209.1 568.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2048 0.0 350.1 350.1 -5,559.2 586.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2049 0.0 348.7 348.7 -5,907.9 601.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2050 0.0 347.1 347.1 -6,255.0 615.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2051 0.0 345.5 345.5 -6,600.4 629.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2052 0.0 343.8 343.8 -6,944.3 643.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2053 0.0 342.1 342.1 -7,286.4 657.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2054 0.0 340.4 340.4 -7,626.8 671.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2055 0.0 338.7 338.7 -7,965.5 684.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2056 0.0 336.8 336.8 -8,302.3 698.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2057 0.0 334.8 334.8 -8,637.1 711.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2058 0.0 332.9 332.9 -8,970.0 724.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2059 0.0 331.0 331.0 -9,301.0 738.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2060 0.0 329.2 329.2 -9,630.1 751.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2061 0.0 327.4 327.4 -9,957.5 764.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2062 0.0 325.6 325.6 -10,283.1 777.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2063 0.0 323.8 323.8 -10,606.9 790.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2064 0.0 321.9 321.9 -10,928.8 803.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2065 0.0 319.9 319.9 -11,248.7 816.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2066 0.0 317.9 317.9 -11,566.6 828.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2067 0.0 315.9 315.9 -11,882.5 841.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2068 0.0 314.0 314.0 -12,196.5 853.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2069 0.0 312.0 312.0 -12,508.6 865.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2070 0.0 310.1 310.1 -12,818.7 877.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2071 0.0 308.2 308.2 -13,126.9 890.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2072 0.0 306.3 306.3 -13,433.2 902.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2073 0.0 304.4 304.4 -13,737.6 914.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2074 0.0 302.5 302.5 -14,040.1 926.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2075 0.0 300.6 300.6 -14,340.7 938.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2076 0.0 298.7 298.7 -14,639.4 949.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2077 0.0 296.8 296.8 -14,936.3 961.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2078 0.0 295.0 295.0 -15,231.3 973.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2079 0.0 293.2 293.2 -15,524.5 984.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2080 0.0 291.5 291.5 -15,816.0 996.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2081 0.0 289.9 289.9 -16,105.9 1,007.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2082 0.0 288.3 288.3 -16,394.1 1,019.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2083 0.0 286.7 286.7 -16,680.8 1,030.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2084 0.0 285.1 285.1 -16,965.9 1,042.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2085 0.0 283.6 283.6 -17,249.6 1,053.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2086 0.0 282.2 282.2 -17,531.7 1,065.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2087 0.0 280.7 280.7 -17,812.5 1,076.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2088 0.0 279.3 279.3 -18,091.8 1,087.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2089 0.0 277.9 277.9 -18,369.8 1,099.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2090 0.0 276.5 276.5 -18,646.3 1,110.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2091 0.0 275.1 275.1 -18,921.4 1,121.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2092 0.0 273.6 273.6 -19,195.0 1,132.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2093 0.0 272.2 272.2 -19,467.2 1,143.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2094 0.0 270.7 270.7 -19,737.9 1,154.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2095 0.0 269.2 269.2 -20,007.1 1,165.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2096 0.0 267.7 267.7 -20,274.8 1,175.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2097 0.0 266.1 266.1 -20,540.9 1,186.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total 2023-2097 0.0 20,540.9 20,540.9

Notes: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report.

 Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.3%.

1 Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would nonetheless be paid,

 based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. Office of the Chief Actuary

2

 Changes in unified budget cash flows reflect excess revenues to the Federal Government arising from the proposal. Social Security Administration

3

 New revenues from the proposal reduce theoretical debt held by the public. 

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2023

July 12, 2023

The "Social Security 2100 Act," Introduced by Ranking Member Larson
Table 1b.n - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget Scoring1

 and Federal Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI (Nominal Dollars)

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow2

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year3 4

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance1

Change in 

Annual On 

Budget Cash 

Flow

Change in Total

Federal Debt 

Subject to Limit 

End of Year1

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance1

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 110.3 110.3 -111.7 111.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2026 0.0 118.3 118.3 -234.5 122.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2027 0.0 120.3 120.3 -362.7 128.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2028 0.0 123.9 123.9 -498.4 135.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2029 0.0 128.1 128.1 -642.7 144.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2030 0.0 132.3 132.3 -796.4 153.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2031 0.0 137.3 137.3 -960.6 164.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2032 0.0 142.2 142.2 -1,135.2 174.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total 2023-2032 0.0 1,012.7 1,012.7 0.0

Notes: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report.

1 Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would nonetheless

 be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public.

2

 Changes in unified budget cash flows reflect excess revenues to the Federal Government arising from the proposal. Office of the Chief Actuary

3

 New revenues from the proposal reduce theoretical debt held by the public. Social Security Administration

4

 Includes the accumulated effect of interest income.

Billions of Nominal Dollars

July 12, 2023

The "Social Security 2100 Act," Introduced by Ranking Member Larson
Table 1c - Current Law and Proposal Cost, Expenditures, and Income: As Percent of Gross Domestic Product

Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

2023 5.22 5.22 4.77 5.22 5.22 4.77

2024 5.37 5.37 4.65 5.37 5.37 4.65

2025 5.45 5.45 4.70 5.78 5.78 5.41

2026 5.52 5.52 4.74 5.90 5.90 5.51

2027 5.59 5.59 4.76 6.00 6.00 5.55

2028 5.66 5.66 4.78 6.11 6.11 5.60

2029 5.73 5.73 4.80 6.20 6.20 5.64

2030 5.79 5.79 4.81 6.29 6.29 5.68

2031 5.84 5.84 4.82 6.37 6.37 5.72

2032 5.88 5.88 4.82 6.44 6.44 5.75

2033 5.92 5.92 4.82 6.51 6.51 5.77

2034 5.95 5.22 4.81 6.56 6.56 5.79

2035 5.97 4.81 4.81 6.00 6.00 5.80

2036 5.99 4.80 4.80 6.00 6.00 5.81

2037 6.01 4.80 4.80 6.02 6.02 5.83

2038 6.02 4.79 4.79 6.03 6.03 5.84

2039 6.03 4.79 4.79 6.04 6.04 5.86

2040 6.03 4.78 4.78 6.04 6.04 5.88

2041 6.03 4.77 4.77 6.04 6.04 5.89

2042 6.02 4.76 4.76 6.03 6.03 5.91

2043 6.02 4.76 4.76 6.03 6.03 5.93

2044 6.01 4.75 4.75 6.02 6.02 5.95

2045 6.01 4.74 4.74 6.02 6.02 5.97

2046 6.01 4.74 4.74 6.01 6.01 5.99

2047 6.00 4.73 4.73 6.01 6.01 6.02

2048 6.00 4.72 4.72 6.01 6.01 6.03

2049 6.00 4.72 4.72 6.01 6.01 6.02

2050 6.01 4.71 4.71 6.02 6.02 6.02

2051 6.01 4.70 4.70 6.02 6.02 6.02

2052 6.01 4.70 4.70 6.03 6.03 6.02

2053 6.02 4.69 4.69 6.03 6.03 6.01

2054 6.03 4.69 4.69 6.05 6.05 6.01

2055 6.05 4.68 4.68 6.06 6.06 6.01

2056 6.07 4.68 4.68 6.08 6.08 6.01

2057 6.08 4.67 4.67 6.10 6.10 6.00

2058 6.10 4.67 4.67 6.12 6.12 6.00

2059 6.12 4.67 4.67 6.14 6.14 6.00

2060 6.14 4.66 4.66 6.16 6.16 6.00

2061 6.16 4.66 4.66 6.18 6.18 5.99

2062 6.18 4.66 4.66 6.20 6.20 5.99

2063 6.19 4.65 4.65 6.21 6.21 5.99

2064 6.21 4.65 4.65 6.23 6.23 5.99

2065 6.22 4.64 4.64 6.24 6.24 5.99

2066 6.23 4.64 4.64 6.25 6.05 5.98

2067 6.25 4.64 4.64 6.27 5.98 5.98

2068 6.26 4.63 4.63 6.28 5.98 5.98

2069 6.27 4.63 4.63 6.29 5.98 5.98

2070 6.28 4.63 4.63 6.31 5.98 5.98

2071 6.30 4.62 4.62 6.32 5.98 5.98

2072 6.31 4.62 4.62 6.33 5.97 5.97

2073 6.32 4.62 4.62 6.34 5.97 5.97

2074 6.33 4.61 4.61 6.35 5.97 5.97

2075 6.33 4.61 4.61 6.36 5.97 5.97

2076 6.33 4.61 4.61 6.36 5.97 5.97

2077 6.33 4.60 4.60 6.36 5.96 5.96

2078 6.33 4.60 4.60 6.35 5.96 5.96

2079 6.32 4.59 4.59 6.34 5.96 5.96

2080 6.30 4.59 4.59 6.33 5.95 5.95

2081 6.29 4.59 4.59 6.31 5.95 5.95

2082 6.27 4.58 4.58 6.29 5.95 5.95

2083 6.25 4.58 4.58 6.27 5.94 5.94

2084 6.22 4.57 4.57 6.25 5.94 5.94

2085 6.20 4.57 4.57 6.22 5.93 5.93

2086 6.17 4.56 4.56 6.20 5.93 5.93

2087 6.14 4.56 4.56 6.17 5.93 5.93

2088 6.11 4.55 4.55 6.14 5.92 5.92

2089 6.08 4.55 4.55 6.11 5.92 5.92

2090 6.06 4.54 4.54 6.09 5.91 5.91

2091 6.04 4.54 4.54 6.06 5.91 5.91

2092 6.02 4.53 4.53 6.05 5.91 5.91

2093 6.00 4.53 4.53 6.03 5.90 5.90

2094 5.99 4.53 4.53 6.02 5.90 5.90

2095 5.99 4.52 4.52 6.01 5.90 5.90

2096 5.98 4.52 4.52 6.01 5.89 5.89

2097 5.98 4.52 4.52 6.01 5.89 5.89

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Note: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report.

Current Law OASDI Proposal OASDI

Calendar

Year

July 12, 2023

The "Social Security 2100 Act," Introduced by Ranking Member Larson
Table 1d - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Reserves / Unfunded Obligation (Present Value Dollars)

Year

Current Law OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Total Change

Through

End of Year

Proposal OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) = cumulative sum(4) (6) = (1)+(5)

2023 2,713.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,713.0

2024 2,522.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,522.6

2025 2,318.9 195.3 91.2 104.1 104.1 2,423.1

2026 2,102.7 212.7 103.6 109.1 213.2 2,315.9

2027 1,868.6 224.2 116.1 108.1 321.3 2,189.9

2028 1,616.7 235.0 126.6 108.4 429.7 2,046.4

2029 1,347.3 245.7 136.7 109.0 538.7 1,886.0

2030 1,061.3 256.3 147.0 109.3 648.0 1,709.3

2031 761.5 266.9 157.0 109.9 757.9 1,519.4

2032 447.8 276.5 166.5 110.0 868.0 1,315.7

2033 122.1 283.9 174.9 109.0 976.9 1,099.0

2034 -213.2 289.6 182.4 107.3 1,084.2 871.0

2035 -555.4 292.8 6.5 286.3 1,370.5 815.1

2036 -902.4 296.9 4.0 292.9 1,663.4 761.0

2037 -1,254.1 300.7 2.6 298.1 1,961.5 707.4

2038 -1,608.5 305.0 2.4 302.7 2,264.2 655.6

2039 -1,964.5 309.5 2.3 307.2 2,571.4 606.8

2040 -2,320.7 314.1 2.3 311.8 2,883.2 562.5

2041 -2,675.8 319.1 2.3 316.8 3,200.0 524.2

2042 -3,029.0 324.1 2.2 321.9 3,521.8 492.9

2043 -3,380.1 329.2 2.2 326.9 3,848.8 468.7

2044 -3,729.4 334.4 2.3 332.2 4,180.9 451.5

2045 -4,077.1 339.6 2.3 337.3 4,518.3 441.2

2046 -4,423.4 345.0 2.3 342.7 4,860.9 437.5

2047 -4,768.7 350.6 2.4 348.2 5,209.1 440.4

2048 -5,113.1 352.6 2.5 350.1 5,559.2 446.1

2049 -5,457.2 351.2 2.6 348.7 5,907.9 450.7

2050 -5,801.2 349.7 2.7 347.1 6,255.0 453.8

2051 -6,145.1 348.3 2.8 345.5 6,600.4 455.3

2052 -6,489.8 346.7 2.9 343.8 6,944.3 454.4

2053 -6,835.9 345.2 3.1 342.1 7,286.4 450.5

2054 -7,183.9 343.6 3.2 340.4 7,626.8 442.9

2055 -7,534.7 342.0 3.3 338.7 7,965.5 430.8

2056 -7,888.6 340.3 3.5 336.8 8,302.3 413.6

2057 -8,246.0 338.5 3.7 334.8 8,637.1 391.1

2058 -8,607.1 336.7 3.8 332.9 8,970.0 362.8

2059 -8,972.0 335.0 4.0 331.0 9,301.0 329.0

2060 -9,340.3 333.3 4.1 329.2 9,630.1 289.9

2061 -9,711.5 331.6 4.3 327.4 9,957.5 246.0

2062 -10,085.2 330.0 4.4 325.6 10,283.1 197.8

2063 -10,461.1 328.3 4.5 323.8 10,606.9 145.8

2064 -10,838.7 326.6 4.6 321.9 10,928.8 90.1

2065 -11,218.0 324.6 4.8 319.9 11,248.7 30.7

2066 -11,598.6 322.8 4.9 317.9 11,566.6 -32.0

2067 -11,980.4 320.9 5.0 315.9 11,882.5 -97.9

2068 -12,363.4 319.1 5.1 314.0 12,196.5 -166.9

2069 -12,747.5 317.2 5.2 312.0 12,508.6 -239.0

2070 -13,132.8 315.4 5.2 310.1 12,818.7 -314.1

2071 -13,518.8 313.5 5.3 308.2 13,126.9 -391.9

2072 -13,905.3 311.7 5.4 306.3 13,433.2 -472.1

2073 -14,292.2 309.9 5.5 304.4 13,737.6 -554.6

2074 -14,679.2 308.0 5.5 302.5 14,040.1 -639.1

2075 -15,065.7 306.2 5.6 300.6 14,340.7 -724.9

2076 -15,450.9 304.3 5.6 298.7 14,639.4 -811.4

2077 -15,834.0 302.5 5.6 296.8 14,936.3 -897.7

2078 -16,214.3 300.7 5.7 295.0 15,231.3 -983.0

2079 -16,590.8 298.9 5.7 293.2 15,524.5 -1,066.3

2080 -16,962.8 297.2 5.7 291.5 15,816.0 -1,146.8

2081 -17,330.0 295.6 5.7 289.9 16,105.9 -1,224.1

2082 -17,691.7 294.0 5.7 288.3 16,394.1 -1,297.6

2083 -18,047.7 292.4 5.7 286.7 16,680.8 -1,366.9

2084 -18,397.4 290.8 5.7 285.1 16,965.9 -1,431.5

2085 -18,740.7 289.3 5.7 283.6 17,249.6 -1,491.1

2086 -19,077.2 287.8 5.6 282.2 17,531.7 -1,545.5

2087 -19,406.9 286.3 5.6 280.7 17,812.5 -1,594.4

2088 -19,729.9 284.9 5.6 279.3 18,091.8 -1,638.0

2089 -20,046.4 283.5 5.5 277.9 18,369.8 -1,676.6

2090 -20,357.0 282.0 5.5 276.5 18,646.3 -1,710.7

2091 -20,662.3 280.6 5.5 275.1 18,921.4 -1,740.9

2092 -20,963.0 279.1 5.4 273.6 19,195.0 -1,768.0

2093 -21,259.9 277.6 5.4 272.2 19,467.2 -1,792.7

2094 -21,553.7 276.1 5.4 270.7 19,737.9 -1,815.8

2095 -21,845.0 274.6 5.4 269.2 20,007.1 -1,837.9

2096 -22,134.3 273.0 5.3 267.7 20,274.8 -1,859.5

2097 -22,422.2 271.4 5.3 266.1 20,540.9 -1,881.3

Total 2023-2097 22,218.5 1,677.6 20,540.9

Office of the Chief Actuary

Notes: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration

 Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.3%. July 12, 2023

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2023

The "Social Security 2100 Act," Introduced by Ranking Member Larson
Table 1d.n - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Reserves / Unfunded Obligation (Nominal Dollars)

Year

Current Law OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Total Change

Through

End of Year1

Proposal OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) (6) = (1)+(5)

2023 2,776.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,776.7

2024 2,642.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,642.8

2025 2,487.7 208.4 96.7 111.7 111.7 2,599.5

2026 2,312.0 235.3 112.6 122.8 234.5 2,546.5

2027 2,108.7 257.5 129.3 128.2 362.7 2,471.4

2028 1,875.1 280.5 144.8 135.7 498.4 2,373.5

2029 1,608.3 305.2 160.9 144.3 642.7 2,251.0

2030 1,306.2 331.8 178.2 153.6 796.4 2,102.6

2031 968.3 360.6 196.4 164.2 960.6 1,928.9

2032 589.9 390.1 215.4 174.6 1,135.2 1,725.2

Notes: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

 Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.3%. Social Security Administration

1 Includes the effect of accumulated interest income. July 12, 2023

(Billions of Nominal Dollars)

The "Social Security 2100 Act," Introduced by Ranking Member Larson