SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE, MD 21235-0001

SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

March 19, 2013

The Honorable Bernie Sanders

United States Senate

Washington, D.C. 20510

Dear Senator Sanders:

I am writing in response to your request for estimates of the financial effects on Social Security 

of a proposal to apply the Social Security payroll tax to earned income over $250,000 beginning

in 2014. The estimates and analysis provided in this letter reflect the intent, as discussed with 

Warren Gunnels of your staff, of S. 500, “Keeping Our Social Security Promises Act,” which 

you introduced on March 7, 2013. 

We estimate that enactment of this Bill would extend full solvency of the OASDI program for an 

additional 28 years, with the projected depletion of combined OASI and DI Trust Fund reserves 

moving from 2033 under current law to 2061 under the proposal. All estimates are based on the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2012 Trustees Report. The estimates presented reflect the 

combined efforts of many in our office, but particularly Alice Wade, Christopher Chaplain, Dan 

Nickerson, Kyle Burkhalter, Katie Sutton, and William Piet. A detailed description of our 

understanding of the intent of the Bill is included immediately below.

The intent of this proposal is identical to the Bill you introduced in September 2011 and H.R. 

797 introduced in the House of Representatives in February 2011 by Mr. DeFazio. Our earlier 

estimates for both of these Bills, reflecting baseline assumptions from the 2011 and 2010 

Trustees Reports, respectively, are available at http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/solvency/index.html.

S. 500 would modify the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to subject a worker’s OASDI covered 

earnings in excess of $250,000 in any calendar year after 2013 to the combined OASDI payroll 

tax rate of 12.4 percent. This is the same tax rate that is applied, under current law, to OASDI 

covered earnings up to the contribution and benefit base ($113,700 for 2013). Under present 

law, the contribution and benefit base is scheduled to increase in the future based on increases in 

the average wage in the U.S. economy. However, the threshold of $250,000 would be constant 

after 2014 until the contribution and benefit base exceeds this level (in the year 2033), at which 

point the threshold would be set equal to the contribution and benefit base for that and all 

subsequent years. Earnings subject to tax above the threshold would not be included in earnings 

credited for the purpose of OASDI benefit computation. 

All wages and self-employment earnings in OASDI covered employment during a given year 

would be reflected in the determination of earnings above the threshold. For workers with more 

than one employer (including self employment) for a given year, total tax liability for the year 

would be computed as if all earnings had been received from a single employer for the year, but 
Page 2 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders

in no case would any employee or employer pay less tax than they would under current law. To 

the extent adjustments of payroll tax liability are needed for a given year, employees would make 

such adjustments on their income tax filing forms. SSA would contact employers regarding any 

additional tax liability due to multiple jobs for employees during the year. 

The balance of this letter provides summary and detailed estimates of the effects of enactment of 

the proposal.

Summary of Effects on Actuarial Status

Figure 1 below illustrates the expected change in the combined Old-Age and Survivors Insurance 

(OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund reserves, expressed as a percent of annual 

program cost, assuming enactment of this Bill. Assuming enactment, the OASDI program would 

be expected to be fully solvent for an additional 28 years, under the intermediate assumptions of

the 2012 Trustees Report. 

Note: Trust Fund Ratio for a given year is the ratio of reserves in the combined OASI and DI Trust Fund at the 

beginning of the year to the cost of the program during the year.

The level of reserves for the theoretical combined OASI and DI Trust Funds would decline from 

340 percent of annual program cost at the beginning of 2012 until these reserves would become 

depleted in 2061 (28 years later than projected depletion under current law). At the time of 

reserve depletion in 2061, the program would be able to pay about 91 percent of then scheduled 
Page 3 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders

benefits with continuing taxes (under current law, 75 percent of scheduled benefits are projected 

to be payable in 2033 after depletion). By 2086, 88 percent of benefits scheduled under the 

proposal would be payable compared to 73 percent of scheduled benefits payable under present 

law.

Enactment of this Bill would eliminate about 80 percent of the long-range OASDI actuarial 

deficit of 2.67 percent of taxable payroll under current law, lowering the OASDI actuarial deficit 

to 0.55 percent of payroll for the long-range period.

 

Figure 2 below illustrates annual projected levels of cost, expenditures, and non-interest income 

as a percent of the current-law taxable payroll. The projected levels of cost reflect the full cost of 

scheduled benefits under both present law and the proposal. After trust fund reserve depletion, 

projected expenditures under current law and under the proposal include only amounts payable 

from projected tax revenues (non-interest income), which are less than projected cost.

Figure 2 shows that the estimated cost of the OASDI program would be very slightly reduced 

under this proposal. A slight decrease in benefits is projected to follow from a small decrease in 

the proportion of employee compensation that would be paid in the form of wages under the 

current-law contribution and benefit base. This small reduction in wages as a percentage of 

employee compensation reflects the assumed behavioral response of employees and employers 

to the additional payroll taxes under the proposal.
Page 4 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders

It is also useful to consider the projected cost and income for the OASDI program expressed as a 

percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The graph below illustrates these levels under 

both present law and this proposal. 

Detailed Financial Results 

Benefit Illustrations

Benefit illustrations are not provided for the proposal because benefit levels would not be 

materially changed from the scheduled benefit levels under current law.

Trust Fund Operations

Table 1 shows the annual cost and income rates, annual balances, and trust fund ratios (reserves 

as percent of annual program cost) for OASDI assuming enactment of the proposal. This table 

also shows the change from present law in these cost rates, income rates, and balances. Included 

at the bottom of this table are summarized rates for the 75-year (long-range) period. 

Table 1 indicates that the OASDI program is projected to be solvent for an additional 28 years 

assuming enactment of the proposal. The year in which the combined reserves of the OASI and 

DI Trust Funds are projected to deplete would change from 2033 under current law to 2061 
Page 5 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders

under the proposal. Even after depletion of the trust fund reserves, however, the actuarial status 

of the program is improved as continuing income would be sufficient to pay a higher percentage 

of scheduled benefits than under current law. Under current law, 75 percent of benefits are 

projected to be payable at trust fund reserve depletion in 2033, declining to 73 percent payable 

by 2086. Under this proposal, 100 percent of the scheduled benefits would be fully payable 

through 2060, and 91 percent would be payable at trust fund reserve depletion in 2061, declining 

to 88 percent payable by 2086. 

The actuarial deficit for the OASDI program over the 75-year projection period is reduced by 

2.12 percent of taxable payroll, from an actuarial deficit of 2.67 percent of payroll under current 

law to an actuarial deficit estimated at 0.55 percent of taxable payroll under the proposal. 

We project annual balances (annual income rate minus annual cost rate) to become positive for 

years 2014 through 2021 under the proposal and to be negative thereafter. Annual deficits 

(negative annual balances) after 2028 are projected to be smaller than the deficits projected under 

current law by more than 2 percentage points through 2086. 

Program Transfers and Asset Reserves

Column 4 of Table 1a provides a projection of the level of reserves for the theoretical combined 

OASI and DI Trust Funds under the proposal, expressed in present value dollars discounted to 

January 1, 2012. The table indicates that the proposal includes no new specified transfers of 

general revenue to the trust funds. For purpose of comparison, the OASDI Trust Fund reserves, 

expressed in present value dollars, are also shown for the current-law Social Security program 

both without the added general fund transfers (if any) provided under the proposal (column 6) 

and with the proposal added transfers (column 7). Note that negative values in columns 4, 6, and 

7 represent the “unfunded obligation” for the program through the year. The unfunded 

obligation is the present value of the shortfall of revenue needed to pay full scheduled benefits on 

a timely basis from the date of trust fund reserve depletion to the end of the indicated year. Gross 

Domestic Product (GDP), expressed in present value dollars, is shown in column 5 for 

comparison with other values in the table. 

Effect on the Federal Budget

Table 1b shows the projected effect, in present value discounted dollars, on the Federal budget 

(unified-budget and on-budget) cash flows and balances, assuming enactment of proposal. Table 

1b.n provides the estimated nominal dollar effect of enactment of the proposal on the annual 

budget balances for years 2012 through 2022. All values in these tables represent the amount of 

the change from the level projected under current law. 

The effect of the proposal on unified budget cash flow (column 3) is expected to be positive 

starting for 2014, reflecting the application of the payroll tax to earnings above the current-law 

taxable maximum amount. 

Column 4 of Table 1b indicates that the projected effect of implementing this Bill is a reduction, 

starting in 2014, of the Federal debt held by the public, reaching about $7.2 trillion in present 

value by 2086. Column 5 provides the projected effect of the proposal on the annual unified 

budget balances, including both the cash flow effect in column 3 and the additional interest on 
Page 6 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders

the accumulated debt indicated in column 4. Columns 6 and 7 indicate that the proposal would 

have no expected direct effects on the on-budget cash flow, or on the total Federal debt, in the 

future.

It is important to note that these estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2012 

Trustees Report and thus are not consistent with estimates made by the Office of Budget and 

Management or the Congressional Budget Office based on their assumptions. 

Annual Trust Fund Operations as a Percentage of GDP

Table 1c provides annual cost, annual expenditures (on a payable basis), and annual tax income 

for the OASDI program expressed as a percentage of GDP. These values are shown for both 

present law and assuming enactment of the Bill. Showing the annual trust fund flows as a 

percent of GDP provides an additional perspective on these trust fund operations in relation to 

the total value of goods and services produced in the United States. The relationship between 

income and cost is similar when expressed as a percent of GDP to that when expressed as a 

percent of taxable payroll (see Table 1).

Effects on Trust Fund Reserves and Unfunded Obligations

Table 1d provides estimates of the changes due to the proposal in the level of projected trust 

fund reserves under present law and, for years after trust fund exhaustion, the level of unfunded 

obligations under present law. All values in the table are expressed in present-value discounted 

dollars. For the 75-year long-range period as a whole, the present-law unfunded obligation of 

$8.6 trillion in present value is reduced to an unfunded obligation of $1.4 trillion in present

value. This change is the combination of the following: 

 A $7.1 trillion increase in revenue from applying the payroll tax to covered earnings 

above the present-law contribution and benefit base (column 2), less

 A $0.1 trillion reduction in cost from the behavioral response to additional payroll tax, 

causing a small decrease in the share of employee compensation that is received in 

wages, and thus a small decrease in total benefits (column 3).

We hope these estimates will be helpful. Please let me know if we may provide further 

assistance.

Sincerely,

Stephen C. Goss

Chief Actuary

Enclosures
S.500, "Keeping Our Social Security Promises Act," Introduced by Senator Sanders

Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2012 13.83 12.89 -0.93 340 0.00 0.00 0.00

2013 13.95 12.83 -1.12 329 0.00 0.00 0.00

2014 13.98 14.16 0.17 315 0.00 1.22 1.22

2015 13.97 14.31 0.34 310 0.00 1.36 1.36

2016 13.94 14.40 0.46 307 0.00 1.42 1.42

2017 13.91 14.48 0.57 305 0.00 1.48 1.48

2018 13.96 14.56 0.60 302 0.00 1.53 1.53

2019 14.13 14.61 0.48 300 0.00 1.56 1.56

2020 14.37 14.66 0.29 297 0.00 1.59 1.59

2021 14.65 14.73 0.07 293 0.00 1.62 1.62

2022 14.97 14.80 -0.17 288 0.00 1.67 1.67

2023 15.28 14.87 -0.42 282 -0.01 1.72 1.73

2024 15.59 14.93 -0.65 276 -0.01 1.77 1.78

2025 15.87 15.00 -0.87 269 -0.01 1.83 1.83

2026 16.14 15.08 -1.06 263 -0.01 1.88 1.89

2027 16.40 15.15 -1.25 256 -0.01 1.94 1.95

2028 16.62 15.23 -1.39 249 -0.01 2.00 2.02

2029 16.82 15.31 -1.51 241 -0.01 2.07 2.09

2030 16.99 15.39 -1.60 233 -0.02 2.14 2.16

2031 17.13 15.47 -1.65 225 -0.02 2.22 2.23

2032 17.23 15.56 -1.67 217 -0.02 2.29 2.31

2033 17.31 15.60 -1.71 210 -0.02 2.33 2.35

2034 17.36 15.61 -1.75 202 -0.02 2.33 2.35

2035 17.38 15.61 -1.77 194 -0.02 2.33 2.36

2036 17.40 15.61 -1.79 187 -0.03 2.33 2.36

2037 17.40 15.62 -1.79 179 -0.03 2.33 2.36

2038 17.39 15.62 -1.77 171 -0.03 2.33 2.36

2039 17.36 15.62 -1.74 163 -0.03 2.33 2.37

2040 17.32 15.62 -1.71 156 -0.03 2.33 2.37

2041 17.28 15.62 -1.67 149 -0.04 2.34 2.37

2042 17.24 15.62 -1.63 141 -0.04 2.34 2.37

2043 17.20 15.62 -1.59 134 -0.04 2.34 2.38

2044 17.17 15.61 -1.56 127 -0.04 2.34 2.38

2045 17.14 15.61 -1.53 120 -0.04 2.34 2.38

2046 17.11 15.62 -1.50 113 -0.05 2.34 2.39

2047 17.09 15.62 -1.47 106 -0.05 2.34 2.39

2048 17.06 15.62 -1.45 100 -0.05 2.34 2.39

2049 17.04 15.62 -1.43 93 -0.05 2.34 2.40

2050 17.02 15.62 -1.41 86 -0.05 2.34 2.40

2051 17.01 15.62 -1.39 79 -0.06 2.34 2.40

2052 17.01 15.62 -1.39 72 -0.06 2.35 2.41

2053 17.01 15.62 -1.39 65 -0.06 2.35 2.41

2054 17.02 15.62 -1.39 58 -0.06 2.35 2.41

2055 17.03 15.63 -1.40 51 -0.07 2.35 2.42

2056 17.04 15.63 -1.41 44 -0.07 2.35 2.42

2057 17.05 15.63 -1.42 36 -0.07 2.35 2.42

2058 17.06 15.63 -1.43 29 -0.07 2.35 2.43

2059 17.07 15.64 -1.44 21 -0.07 2.35 2.43

2060 17.08 15.64 -1.44 13 -0.08 2.36 2.43

2061 17.08 15.64 -1.44 5 -0.08 2.36 2.43

2062 17.09 15.64 -1.45 ---- -0.08 2.36 2.44

2063 17.10 15.65 -1.45 ---- -0.08 2.36 2.44

2064 17.10 15.65 -1.46 ---- -0.08 2.36 2.44

2065 17.12 15.65 -1.47 ---- -0.08 2.36 2.44

2066 17.13 15.65 -1.48 ---- -0.08 2.36 2.45

2067 17.15 15.66 -1.50 ---- -0.09 2.36 2.45

2068 17.18 15.66 -1.52 ---- -0.09 2.37 2.45

2069 17.21 15.66 -1.54 ---- -0.09 2.37 2.45

2070 17.24 15.67 -1.57 ---- -0.09 2.37 2.46

2071 17.26 15.67 -1.59 ---- -0.09 2.37 2.46

2072 17.29 15.67 -1.62 ---- -0.09 2.37 2.46

2073 17.31 15.67 -1.64 ---- -0.09 2.37 2.46

2074 17.34 15.68 -1.66 ---- -0.09 2.37 2.47

2075 17.37 15.68 -1.69 ---- -0.09 2.38 2.47

2076 17.39 15.68 -1.71 ---- -0.09 2.38 2.47

2077 17.42 15.69 -1.73 ---- -0.09 2.38 2.47

2078 17.45 15.69 -1.75 ---- -0.09 2.38 2.47

2079 17.48 15.69 -1.78 ---- -0.09 2.38 2.48

2080 17.51 15.70 -1.81 ---- -0.09 2.38 2.48

2081 17.54 15.70 -1.84 ---- -0.09 2.38 2.48

2082 17.58 15.70 -1.88 ---- -0.10 2.39 2.48

2083 17.62 15.71 -1.91 ---- -0.10 2.39 2.48

2084 17.66 15.71 -1.95 ---- -0.10 2.39 2.48

2085 17.70 15.72 -1.98 ---- -0.10 2.39 2.48

2086 17.74 15.72 -2.02 ---- -0.10 2.39 2.49

2087 17.78 15.72 -2.05 ---- -0.10 2.39 2.49

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

16.64% 16.10% -0.55% 2061 -0.04% 2.08% 2.12%

1 Under present law the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2033.

Year of reserve 

depletion1

Summarized Rates: OASDI

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2012 Trustees Report

March 19, 2013

Summarized Rates: OASDI

2012 - 2086

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

Proposal

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll

Change from Present Law
S.500, "Keeping Our Social Security Promises Act," Introduced by Senator Sanders

Percentage

of Payroll

Annual

Amounts

Accumulated as of 

End of Year

Gross Domestic 

Product

No Added General 

Fund Transfers

With Proposal General

Fund Transfers

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2012 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,626.1 15,439.4 2,626.1 2,626.1

2013 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,563.5 15,479.7 2,563.5 2,563.5

2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,573.8 15,668.0 2,504.0 2,504.0

2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,594.2 15,946.3 2,445.4 2,445.4

2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,622.2 16,203.4 2,389.0 2,389.0

2017 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,657.4 16,420.0 2,334.6 2,334.6

2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,695.2 16,593.0 2,278.0 2,278.0

2019 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,725.6 16,683.5 2,211.2 2,211.2

2020 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,744.3 16,728.5 2,130.5 2,130.5

2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,749.7 16,749.9 2,034.1 2,034.1

2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,739.9 16,737.3 1,919.6 1,919.6

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,714.9 16,689.8 1,787.1 1,787.1

2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,675.6 16,605.5 1,637.9 1,637.9

2025 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,623.6 16,481.0 1,473.7 1,473.7

2026 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,560.5 16,309.8 1,296.2 1,296.2

2027 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,487.3 16,115.0 1,106.7 1,106.7

2028 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,406.6 15,930.5 907.3 907.3

2029 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,320.3 15,741.8 700.0 700.0

2030 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,230.0 15,549.2 486.3 486.3

2031 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,137.9 15,364.4 268.0 268.0

2032 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,045.8 15,192.0 47.0 47.0

2033 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,953.0 15,025.3 -175.3 -175.3

2034 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,858.9 14,863.7 -397.4 -397.4

2035 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,764.7 14,704.0 -618.4 -618.4

2036 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,670.8 14,544.1 -837.5 -837.5

2037 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,578.1 14,387.6 -1,054.2 -1,054.2

2038 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,487.1 14,234.9 -1,267.7 -1,267.7

2039 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,398.8 14,084.3 -1,477.4 -1,477.4

2040 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,313.4 13,932.5 -1,682.8 -1,682.8

2041 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,231.1 13,781.3 -1,883.9 -1,883.9

2042 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,151.7 13,632.3 -2,080.7 -2,080.7

2043 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,075.1 13,484.0 -2,273.4 -2,273.4

2044 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,001.0 13,337.1 -2,462.4 -2,462.4

2045 0.0 0.0 0.0 929.2 13,192.0 -2,647.8 -2,647.8

2046 0.0 0.0 0.0 859.7 13,045.1 -2,829.7 -2,829.7

2047 0.0 0.0 0.0 792.3 12,896.0 -3,008.1 -3,008.1

2048 0.0 0.0 0.0 726.9 12,748.1 -3,183.3 -3,183.3

2049 0.0 0.0 0.0 663.3 12,599.8 -3,355.4 -3,355.4

2050 0.0 0.0 0.0 601.4 12,452.8 -3,524.5 -3,524.5

2051 0.0 0.0 0.0 540.8 12,305.9 -3,691.0 -3,691.0

2052 0.0 0.0 0.0 481.3 12,160.4 -3,855.2 -3,855.2

2053 0.0 0.0 0.0 422.6 12,016.5 -4,017.4 -4,017.4

2054 0.0 0.0 0.0 364.5 11,873.9 -4,177.7 -4,177.7

2055 0.0 0.0 0.0 306.9 11,733.4 -4,336.3 -4,336.3

2056 0.0 0.0 0.0 249.7 11,593.6 -4,493.3 -4,493.3

2057 0.0 0.0 0.0 192.8 11,455.7 -4,648.9 -4,648.9

2058 0.0 0.0 0.0 136.2 11,319.5 -4,802.8 -4,802.8

2059 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.1 11,184.5 -4,955.1 -4,955.1

2060 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.7 11,052.2 -5,105.7 -5,105.7

2061 0.0 0.0 0.0 -30.2 10,922.0 -5,254.5 -5,254.5

2062 0.0 0.0 0.0 -84.4 10,793.9 -5,401.5 -5,401.5

2063 0.0 0.0 0.0 -138.1 10,667.4 -5,546.9 -5,546.9

2064 0.0 0.0 0.0 -191.3 10,541.9 -5,690.7 -5,690.7

2065 0.0 0.0 0.0 -244.2 10,417.7 -5,833.1 -5,833.1

2066 0.0 0.0 0.0 -296.9 10,295.2 -5,974.2 -5,974.2

2067 0.0 0.0 0.0 -349.5 10,174.1 -6,114.2 -6,114.2

2068 0.0 0.0 0.0 -402.2 10,053.7 -6,253.2 -6,253.2

2069 0.0 0.0 0.0 -455.1 9,934.5 -6,391.2 -6,391.2

2070 0.0 0.0 0.0 -508.1 9,816.3 -6,528.4 -6,528.4

2071 0.0 0.0 0.0 -561.2 9,699.8 -6,664.6 -6,664.6

2072 0.0 0.0 0.0 -614.4 9,584.7 -6,799.8 -6,799.8

2073 0.0 0.0 0.0 -667.5 9,470.3 -6,934.1 -6,934.1

2074 0.0 0.0 0.0 -720.8 9,356.9 -7,067.4 -7,067.4

2075 0.0 0.0 0.0 -774.1 9,244.2 -7,199.8 -7,199.8

2076 0.0 0.0 0.0 -827.4 9,133.4 -7,331.2 -7,331.2

2077 0.0 0.0 0.0 -880.7 9,023.5 -7,461.5 -7,461.5

2078 0.0 0.0 0.0 -934.0 8,914.1 -7,591.0 -7,591.0

2079 0.0 0.0 0.0 -987.5 8,805.8 -7,719.6 -7,719.6

2080 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,041.1 8,698.5 -7,847.5 -7,847.5

2081 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,094.9 8,592.2 -7,974.6 -7,974.6

2082 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,149.0 8,486.7 -8,101.1 -8,101.1

2083 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,203.4 8,381.9 -8,226.9 -8,226.9

2084 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,258.1 8,278.3 -8,352.1 -8,352.1

2085 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,313.0 8,175.6 -8,476.6 -8,476.6

2086 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,368.2 8,074.3 -8,600.6 -8,600.6

2087 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,423.5 7,974.3 -8,723.8 -8,723.8

Total 2012-2086 0.0

Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2012 Trustees Report

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9% Office of the Chief Actuary

1

 The unfunded obligation is the present value (discounted to 1-1-2012) of the shortfall of revenue needed to fully pay Social Security Administration

 scheduled benefits on a timely basis from the date of trust fund reserve depletion to the end of the current year. March 19, 2013

Table 1a - Annual General Fund Transfers, and OASDI Trust Fund Reserves (or Unfunded Obligation) 

Calendar

Year

Proposal General Fund Transfers Present Value in Billions as of 1-1-2012

Proposal

Total OASDI

Trust Fund

Reserves (unfunded 

obligation when 

negative) 

at End of Year

Current Law OASDI with and without Added 

General Fund Transfers as in the Proposal

Present Value in Billions as of 1-1- 2012

OASDI Trust Fund Reserves (unfunded 

obligation1 when negative) at End of Year
S.500, "Keeping Our Social Security Promises Act," Introduced by Senator Sanders

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End Of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2012 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2013 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2014 0.0 69.8 69.8 -69.8 69.8 0.0 0.0

2015 0.0 79.1 79.1 -148.8 81.7 0.0 0.0

2016 0.0 84.4 84.4 -233.2 90.2 0.0 0.0

2017 0.0 89.6 89.6 -322.9 98.8 0.0 0.0

2018 0.0 94.3 94.3 -417.2 107.3 0.0 0.0

2019 0.0 97.1 97.1 -514.3 114.3 0.0 0.0

2020 0.0 99.6 99.6 -613.9 121.2 0.0 0.0

2021 0.0 101.8 101.8 -715.7 128.0 0.0 0.0

2022 0.0 104.7 104.7 -820.4 136.9 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 107.4 107.4 -927.8 146.3 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 109.9 109.9 -1,037.7 156.0 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 112.2 112.2 -1,149.9 166.4 0.0 0.0

2026 0.0 114.4 114.4 -1,264.3 177.2 0.0 0.0

2027 0.0 116.4 116.4 -1,380.7 185.5 0.0 0.0

2028 0.0 118.6 118.6 -1,499.3 194.1 0.0 0.0

2029 0.0 121.0 121.0 -1,620.3 202.9 0.0 0.0

2030 0.0 123.5 123.5 -1,743.8 212.0 0.0 0.0

2031 0.0 126.1 126.1 -1,869.9 221.4 0.0 0.0

2032 0.0 129.0 129.0 -1,998.9 231.2 0.0 0.0

2033 0.0 129.4 129.4 -2,128.3 238.6 0.0 0.0

2034 0.0 128.1 128.1 -2,256.3 244.4 0.0 0.0

2035 0.0 126.7 126.7 -2,383.0 250.0 0.0 0.0

2036 0.0 125.3 125.3 -2,508.3 255.5 0.0 0.0

2037 0.0 123.9 123.9 -2,632.2 261.0 0.0 0.0

2038 0.0 122.6 122.6 -2,754.9 266.5 0.0 0.0

2039 0.0 121.3 121.3 -2,876.2 271.9 0.0 0.0

2040 0.0 120.0 120.0 -2,996.2 277.2 0.0 0.0

2041 0.0 118.7 118.7 -3,114.9 282.5 0.0 0.0

2042 0.0 117.4 117.4 -3,232.3 287.7 0.0 0.0

2043 0.0 116.2 116.2 -3,348.5 292.8 0.0 0.0

2044 0.0 114.9 114.9 -3,463.4 297.9 0.0 0.0

2045 0.0 113.6 113.6 -3,577.0 302.9 0.0 0.0

2046 0.0 112.3 112.3 -3,689.4 307.8 0.0 0.0

2047 0.0 111.1 111.1 -3,800.4 312.7 0.0 0.0

2048 0.0 109.8 109.8 -3,910.2 317.5 0.0 0.0

2049 0.0 108.5 108.5 -4,018.7 322.2 0.0 0.0

2050 0.0 107.2 107.2 -4,125.9 326.8 0.0 0.0

2051 0.0 105.9 105.9 -4,231.8 331.4 0.0 0.0

2052 0.0 104.7 104.7 -4,336.5 336.0 0.0 0.0

2053 0.0 103.5 103.5 -4,440.0 340.5 0.0 0.0

2054 0.0 102.2 102.2 -4,542.2 344.9 0.0 0.0

2055 0.0 101.0 101.0 -4,643.2 349.3 0.0 0.0

2056 0.0 99.8 99.8 -4,743.0 353.6 0.0 0.0

2057 0.0 98.6 98.6 -4,841.6 357.8 0.0 0.0

2058 0.0 97.4 97.4 -4,939.0 362.0 0.0 0.0

2059 0.0 96.2 96.2 -5,035.3 366.2 0.0 0.0

2060 0.0 95.1 95.1 -5,130.4 370.3 0.0 0.0

2061 0.0 93.9 93.9 -5,224.3 374.3 0.0 0.0

2062 0.0 92.8 92.8 -5,317.1 378.3 0.0 0.0

2063 0.0 91.7 91.7 -5,408.8 382.3 0.0 0.0

2064 0.0 90.6 90.6 -5,499.4 386.2 0.0 0.0

2065 0.0 89.5 89.5 -5,588.9 390.1 0.0 0.0

2066 0.0 88.4 88.4 -5,677.3 393.9 0.0 0.0

2067 0.0 87.3 87.3 -5,764.7 397.6 0.0 0.0

2068 0.0 86.3 86.3 -5,850.9 401.3 0.0 0.0

2069 0.0 85.2 85.2 -5,936.1 405.0 0.0 0.0

2070 0.0 84.1 84.1 -6,020.3 408.6 0.0 0.0

2071 0.0 83.1 83.1 -6,103.4 412.1 0.0 0.0

2072 0.0 82.1 82.1 -6,185.5 415.7 0.0 0.0

2073 0.0 81.1 81.1 -6,266.6 419.1 0.0 0.0

2074 0.0 80.1 80.1 -6,346.6 422.6 0.0 0.0

2075 0.0 79.1 79.1 -6,425.7 425.9 0.0 0.0

2076 0.0 78.1 78.1 -6,503.8 429.3 0.0 0.0

2077 0.0 77.1 77.1 -6,580.9 432.5 0.0 0.0

2078 0.0 76.1 76.1 -6,657.0 435.8 0.0 0.0

2079 0.0 75.2 75.2 -6,732.2 439.0 0.0 0.0

2080 0.0 74.2 74.2 -6,806.4 442.2 0.0 0.0

2081 0.0 73.3 73.3 -6,879.7 445.3 0.0 0.0

2082 0.0 72.4 72.4 -6,952.1 448.4 0.0 0.0

2083 0.0 71.4 71.4 -7,023.5 451.4 0.0 0.0

2084 0.0 70.5 70.5 -7,094.0 454.4 0.0 0.0

2085 0.0 69.6 69.6 -7,163.7 457.3 0.0 0.0

2086 0.0 68.7 68.7 -7,232.4 460.3 0.0 0.0

0.0 7,232.4 7,232.4

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2012 Trustees Report.

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9% Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Total 2012-86

1

 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table.

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2012

Table 1b - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1 (Present Value Dollars)

March 19, 2013
S.500, "Keeping Our Social Security Promises Act," Introduced by Senator Sanders

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2012 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2013 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2014 0.0 77.0 77.0 -78.5 78.5 0.0 0.0

2015 0.0 90.7 90.7 -174.0 95.5 0.0 0.0

2016 0.0 100.7 100.7 -283.5 109.6 0.0 0.0

2017 0.0 111.2 111.2 -408.4 124.9 0.0 0.0

2018 0.0 121.8 121.8 -549.4 141.0 0.0 0.0

2019 0.0 130.8 130.8 -706.0 156.6 0.0 0.0

2020 0.0 139.9 139.9 -879.2 173.2 0.0 0.0

2021 0.0 149.3 149.3 -1,070.3 191.2 0.0 0.0

2022 0.0 160.6 160.6 -1,282.5 212.2 0.0 0.0

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2012 Trustees Report.

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

March 19, 2013 1 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table.

Billions of Nominal Dollars

Table 1b.n - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1 (Nominal Dollars)
S.500, "Keeping Our Social Security Promises Act," Introduced by Senator Sanders

Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

2012 5.01 5.01 4.67 5.01 5.01 4.67

2013 5.06 5.06 4.66 5.06 5.06 4.66

2014 5.09 5.09 4.71 5.09 5.09 5.15

2015 5.10 5.10 4.73 5.10 5.10 5.22

2016 5.11 5.11 4.76 5.11 5.11 5.28

2017 5.14 5.14 4.81 5.14 5.14 5.35

2018 5.19 5.19 4.85 5.19 5.19 5.42

2019 5.28 5.28 4.87 5.28 5.28 5.45

2020 5.38 5.38 4.89 5.38 5.38 5.49

2021 5.49 5.49 4.91 5.49 5.49 5.51

2022 5.59 5.59 4.90 5.59 5.59 5.53

2023 5.70 5.70 4.90 5.69 5.69 5.54

2024 5.80 5.80 4.89 5.79 5.79 5.55

2025 5.89 5.89 4.89 5.89 5.89 5.56

2026 5.98 5.98 4.88 5.97 5.97 5.58

2027 6.06 6.06 4.88 6.06 6.06 5.60

2028 6.13 6.13 4.88 6.13 6.13 5.61

2029 6.20 6.20 4.87 6.19 6.19 5.63

2030 6.25 6.25 4.87 6.24 6.24 5.66

2031 6.29 6.29 4.87 6.29 6.29 5.68

2032 6.32 6.32 4.86 6.32 6.32 5.70

2033 6.34 5.16 4.86 6.34 6.34 5.71

2034 6.36 4.85 4.85 6.35 6.35 5.71

2035 6.36 4.85 4.85 6.35 6.35 5.70

2036 6.36 4.85 4.85 6.35 6.35 5.70

2037 6.35 4.84 4.84 6.34 6.34 5.69

2038 6.34 4.84 4.84 6.33 6.33 5.69

2039 6.33 4.83 4.83 6.31 6.31 5.68

2040 6.31 4.83 4.83 6.29 6.29 5.67

2041 6.28 4.82 4.82 6.27 6.27 5.67

2042 6.26 4.81 4.81 6.25 6.25 5.66

2043 6.24 4.81 4.81 6.23 6.23 5.65

2044 6.22 4.80 4.80 6.21 6.21 5.65

2045 6.21 4.79 4.79 6.19 6.19 5.64

2046 6.19 4.79 4.79 6.17 6.17 5.63

2047 6.17 4.78 4.78 6.15 6.15 5.62

2048 6.15 4.77 4.77 6.13 6.13 5.61

2049 6.14 4.76 4.76 6.12 6.12 5.61

2050 6.12 4.76 4.76 6.10 6.10 5.60

2051 6.11 4.75 4.75 6.09 6.09 5.59

2052 6.10 4.75 4.75 6.08 6.08 5.58

2053 6.09 4.74 4.74 6.07 6.07 5.58

2054 6.09 4.73 4.73 6.07 6.07 5.57

2055 6.08 4.73 4.73 6.06 6.06 5.56

2056 6.08 4.72 4.72 6.06 6.06 5.56

2057 6.08 4.71 4.71 6.05 6.05 5.55

2058 6.07 4.71 4.71 6.05 6.05 5.54

2059 6.07 4.70 4.70 6.04 6.04 5.53

2060 6.06 4.69 4.69 6.04 6.04 5.53

2061 6.06 4.69 4.69 6.03 5.52 5.52

2062 6.05 4.68 4.68 6.02 5.51 5.51

2063 6.05 4.68 4.68 6.02 5.51 5.51

2064 6.04 4.67 4.67 6.01 5.50 5.50

2065 6.04 4.66 4.66 6.01 5.49 5.49

2066 6.03 4.66 4.66 6.00 5.48 5.48

2067 6.03 4.65 4.65 6.00 5.48 5.48

2068 6.03 4.64 4.64 6.00 5.47 5.47

2069 6.03 4.64 4.64 6.00 5.46 5.46

2070 6.04 4.63 4.63 6.00 5.46 5.46

2071 6.04 4.63 4.63 6.01 5.45 5.45

2072 6.04 4.62 4.62 6.01 5.45 5.45

2073 6.04 4.62 4.62 6.01 5.44 5.44

2074 6.04 4.61 4.61 6.01 5.43 5.43

2075 6.04 4.61 4.61 6.01 5.43 5.43

2076 6.04 4.60 4.60 6.01 5.42 5.42

2077 6.05 4.59 4.59 6.01 5.42 5.42

2078 6.05 4.59 4.59 6.02 5.41 5.41

2079 6.05 4.59 4.59 6.02 5.41 5.41

2080 6.06 4.58 4.58 6.02 5.40 5.40

2081 6.06 4.58 4.58 6.03 5.40 5.40

2082 6.07 4.57 4.57 6.04 5.39 5.39

2083 6.08 4.57 4.57 6.04 5.39 5.39

2084 6.08 4.57 4.57 6.05 5.38 5.38

2085 6.09 4.56 4.56 6.06 5.38 5.38

2086 6.10 4.56 4.56 6.07 5.38 5.38

Table 1c - Present Law and Proposal Cost, Expenditures, and Income: As Percent of Gross Domestic Product

March 19, 2013

Social Security Administration

Present Law OASDI Proposal OASDI

Calendar

Year

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2012 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary
S.500, "Keeping Our Social Security Promises Act," Introduced by Senator Sanders

Year

Present Law OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Total Change

Through

End of Year

Proposal OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) = cumulative sum(4) (6) = (1)+(5)

2012 2,626.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,626.1

2013 2,563.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,563.5

2014 2,504.0 69.8 0.0 69.8 69.8 2,573.8

2015 2,445.4 79.0 0.0 79.1 148.8 2,594.2

2016 2,389.0 84.4 0.0 84.4 233.2 2,622.2

2017 2,334.6 89.6 0.0 89.6 322.9 2,657.4

2018 2,278.0 94.3 -0.1 94.3 417.2 2,695.2

2019 2,211.2 97.1 -0.1 97.1 514.3 2,725.6

2020 2,130.5 99.5 -0.1 99.6 613.9 2,744.3

2021 2,034.1 101.6 -0.2 101.8 715.7 2,749.7

2022 1,919.6 104.4 -0.3 104.7 820.4 2,739.9

2023 1,787.1 107.0 -0.4 107.4 927.8 2,714.9

2024 1,637.9 109.4 -0.5 109.9 1,037.7 2,675.6

2025 1,473.7 111.7 -0.6 112.2 1,149.9 2,623.6

2026 1,296.2 113.7 -0.7 114.4 1,264.3 2,560.5

2027 1,106.7 115.7 -0.7 116.4 1,380.7 2,487.3

2028 907.3 117.8 -0.8 118.6 1,499.3 2,406.6

2029 700.0 120.1 -0.9 121.0 1,620.3 2,320.3

2030 486.3 122.5 -0.9 123.5 1,743.8 2,230.0

2031 268.0 125.1 -1.0 126.1 1,869.9 2,137.9

2032 47.0 127.9 -1.1 129.0 1,998.9 2,045.8

2033 -175.3 128.2 -1.2 129.4 2,128.3 1,953.0

2034 -397.4 126.8 -1.2 128.1 2,256.3 1,858.9

2035 -618.4 125.4 -1.3 126.7 2,383.0 1,764.7

2036 -837.5 123.9 -1.4 125.3 2,508.3 1,670.8

2037 -1,054.2 122.5 -1.5 123.9 2,632.2 1,578.1

2038 -1,267.7 121.1 -1.5 122.6 2,754.9 1,487.1

2039 -1,477.4 119.7 -1.6 121.3 2,876.2 1,398.8

2040 -1,682.8 118.3 -1.7 120.0 2,996.2 1,313.4

2041 -1,883.9 116.9 -1.8 118.7 3,114.9 1,231.1

2042 -2,080.7 115.6 -1.8 117.4 3,232.3 1,151.7

2043 -2,273.4 114.2 -1.9 116.2 3,348.5 1,075.1

2044 -2,462.4 112.9 -2.0 114.9 3,463.4 1,001.0

2045 -2,647.8 111.5 -2.1 113.6 3,577.0 929.2

2046 -2,829.7 110.2 -2.2 112.3 3,689.4 859.7

2047 -3,008.1 108.8 -2.2 111.1 3,800.4 792.3

2048 -3,183.3 107.5 -2.3 109.8 3,910.2 726.9

2049 -3,355.4 106.1 -2.4 108.5 4,018.7 663.3

2050 -3,524.5 104.8 -2.5 107.2 4,125.9 601.4

2051 -3,691.0 103.4 -2.5 105.9 4,231.8 540.8

2052 -3,855.2 102.1 -2.6 104.7 4,336.5 481.3

2053 -4,017.4 100.8 -2.6 103.5 4,440.0 422.6

2054 -4,177.7 99.5 -2.7 102.2 4,542.2 364.5

2055 -4,336.3 98.3 -2.8 101.0 4,643.2 306.9

2056 -4,493.3 97.0 -2.8 99.8 4,743.0 249.7

2057 -4,648.9 95.7 -2.9 98.6 4,841.6 192.8

2058 -4,802.8 94.5 -2.9 97.4 4,939.0 136.2

2059 -4,955.1 93.3 -2.9 96.2 5,035.3 80.1

2060 -5,105.7 92.1 -3.0 95.1 5,130.4 24.7

2061 -5,254.5 91.0 -3.0 93.9 5,224.3 -30.2

2062 -5,401.5 89.8 -3.0 92.8 5,317.1 -84.4

2063 -5,546.9 88.7 -3.0 91.7 5,408.8 -138.1

2064 -5,690.7 87.6 -3.0 90.6 5,499.4 -191.3

2065 -5,833.1 86.5 -3.0 89.5 5,588.9 -244.2

2066 -5,974.2 85.4 -3.1 88.4 5,677.3 -296.9

2067 -6,114.2 84.3 -3.1 87.3 5,764.7 -349.5

2068 -6,253.2 83.2 -3.1 86.3 5,850.9 -402.2

2069 -6,391.2 82.1 -3.1 85.2 5,936.1 -455.1

2070 -6,528.4 81.1 -3.0 84.1 6,020.3 -508.1

2071 -6,664.6 80.1 -3.0 83.1 6,103.4 -561.2

2072 -6,799.8 79.1 -3.0 82.1 6,185.5 -614.4

2073 -6,934.1 78.1 -3.0 81.1 6,266.6 -667.5

2074 -7,067.4 77.1 -3.0 80.1 6,346.6 -720.8

2075 -7,199.8 76.1 -3.0 79.1 6,425.7 -774.1

2076 -7,331.2 75.1 -2.9 78.1 6,503.8 -827.4

2077 -7,461.5 74.2 -2.9 77.1 6,580.9 -880.7

2078 -7,591.0 73.2 -2.9 76.1 6,657.0 -934.0

2079 -7,719.6 72.3 -2.9 75.2 6,732.2 -987.5

2080 -7,847.5 71.4 -2.8 74.2 6,806.4 -1,041.1

2081 -7,974.6 70.5 -2.8 73.3 6,879.7 -1,094.9

2082 -8,101.1 69.6 -2.8 72.4 6,952.1 -1,149.0

2083 -8,226.9 68.7 -2.7 71.4 7,023.5 -1,203.4

2084 -8,352.1 67.8 -2.7 70.5 7,094.0 -1,258.1

2085 -8,476.6 67.0 -2.7 69.6 7,163.7 -1,313.0

2086 -8,600.6 66.1 -2.6 68.7 7,232.4 -1,368.2

Total 2012-2086 7087.6 -144.8 7232.4

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2012 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%. March 19, 2013

(Billions of Dollars, Present Value on 1-1-2012)

Table 1d - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Reserves / Unfunded Obligation