SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

September 30, 2019 

The Honorable Richard Neal

House of Representatives 

Washington, D.C. 20515 

Dear Chairman Neal: 

I am writing in response to your request for our estimate of the financial effects on 

the Social Security Trust Funds of H.R. 4540, the “Public Servants Protection and Fairness Act,”

which you introduced on September 27, 2019. This Bill would change the current-law windfall 

elimination provision (WEP) by adding a new formula, referred to as the “Public Servant 

Protection” (PSP) formula. Individuals who have non-covered earnings and become eligible for 

OASDI benefits in 2022 or later would receive the higher of their benefit using the PSP or their 

benefit using the current-law WEP. The proposal would also provide for a “relief payment” for 

months beginning at least 270 days after enactment for retired-worker and disabled-worker 

beneficiaries first eligible before 2022 who are affected by the current WEP. We have enjoyed 

working with Kathryn Olson and Elisa Walker of your staff in the development of this proposal. 

Our analysis and estimates provided for this proposal reflect the efforts of many in the Office of 

the Chief Actuary, but particularly Jacqueline Walsh, Chris Chaplain, Daniel Nickerson, Kyle 

Burkhalter, Anna Kirjusina, and Karen Glenn. 

The balance of this letter provides our understanding of the intent of the sections of the Bill with 

direct effects on the Social Security program, followed by estimates of the effects on OASDI 

program cost and income assuming enactment of the Bill. Over the period 2020 through 2029, we 

estimate the program expenditures for the OASDI program would be increased by $34.3 billion, 

with the trust funds being fully reimbursed for the added cost on an annual basis with transfers 

from the General Fund of the Treasury. Over the long-range 75-year period, we estimate that 

enactment of the Bill would increase OASDI program cost and program income each by 0.02 

percent of taxable payroll, thus having no significant effect on the OASDI actuarial balance. All 

estimates reflect the intermediate assumptions of the 2019 Trustees Report. 

Bill Specifications

Individuals who become eligible for retired-worker and disabled-worker benefits in 2022 or later, 

who have non-covered earnings (earnings that were not covered under the OASDI program) and 

are receiving a pension based on those non-covered earnings, would have a benefit level 

computed both under the current WEP provision, and in addition a benefit level computed under 

the new PSP provision. The benefit level provided would be the higher of these two alternative 

computations. 
Page 2 – The Honorable Richard Neal

The PSP provides retired-worker and disabled-worker beneficiaries who have non-covered 

earnings (and their dependents) with an alternative modified benefit computed reflecting all past 

earnings (including earnings in employment that was not covered under the OASDI program in 

our records starting with 1978), then multiplied by the ratio of the average indexed monthly 

earnings(AIME) computed without non-covered earnings to a modified average indexed monthly

earnings (AIME′) that includes both covered and non-covered earnings in our records. As with 

OASDI covered earnings, potential beneficiaries would be asked to review the non-covered

earnings we have in our records so that they would have the opportunity to make corrections. 

Another way to describe the new PSP approach is that beneficiaries will receive a benefit that 

reflects the replacement rate applicable for a worker with the same career earnings, where all 

earnings had been covered. Effectively, the PSP formula would compute the worker’s PIA as the 

ratio of PIA based on all earnings (covered and non-covered) to the AIME′ computed based on all 

earnings, multiplied by the AIME based on covered earnings only. These two ways of describing 

the new approach are mathematically equivalent. The final step in the calculation is to compare 

the result of the PSP formula to the current-law WEP: beneficiaries becoming eligible for OASDI

benefits in 2022 or later will receive the higher of the two.

For workers becoming eligible for OASDI benefits in 2022 or later who have non-covered 

earnings, but are not in receipt of a pension based on non-covered earnings or have at least 30 

years of coverage, neither the current WEP nor the new PSP would reduce their PIA. In addition, 

disabled-worker and retired-worker beneficiaries who are entitled to receive periodic payments 

based on foreign employment not covered under a totalization agreement, would continue to have 

their benefits computed under the current WEP. 

In general, retired-worker and disabled-worker beneficiaries who become eligible before January 

2022 will receive a monthly “relief payment” for each month they receive a Social Security benefit 

that is reduced by the current-law WEP, for months beginning at least 270 days after enactment of

the bill. In 2020, the amount of the relief payment will be $150, but no more than the amount of 

reduction in the worker’s primary insurance amount due to WEP. In years after 2020, the level of 

relief payment will be increased by the annual cost of living adjustments. Beneficiaries who are 

receiving a foreign pension are not eligible to receive a relief payment.

The relief payment would not be subject to benefit adjustments, such as for the GPO, RET, 

early/late claiming, and dual entitlement. Further specifications relating to the relief payment 

include: (1) individuals whose benefits are offset (to zero) due to the government pension offset 

(GPO), retirement earnings test (RET), workers’ compensation (WC) offset, etc. still receive a 

relief payment; (2) individuals whose benefits are suspended due to incarceration would not 

receive the relief payment; (3) disabled worker beneficiaries with benefits fully suspended due to 

work would not receive the relief payment; and (4) individuals with an outstanding overpayment 

would be eligible for the relief payment but would have it withheld to help repay the overpayment.

Finally, under the proposal, annual transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury would be made 

in amounts equal to the annual OASDI cost increase resulting from implementation of the 

provisions of the Bill. Transfer amounts would be determined for each year based on estimates 

from the Chief Actuary at the Social Security Administration, with adjustments to transfers after 
Page 3 – The Honorable Richard Neal

the end of each year equal to any difference between the estimated cost increase and the actual cost 

increase measured after the end of the year. 

OASDI Program Cost Effects

The proposal will result in added program cost for workers newly eligible for an OASDI benefit 

after 2021, because they will receive the greater of the benefit subject to PSP or the benefit 

subject to the WEP. The increase in OASDI program benefit cost is estimated at $1.5 billion total 

for calendar years 2020 through 2029 for those newly eligible for OASDI benefits after 2021 who 

are advantaged by the alternative benefit computation using the PSP. The cost for the relief 

payment for months beginning at least 270 days after enactment applied for beneficiaries who are 

affected by the WEP is estimated to be $32.8 billion total for calendar years 2020 through 2029.

For the purpose of these estimates, we are assuming enactment of the Bill at the end of calendar 

year 2019.

For all years starting in 2020, all increases in program cost would be fully offset by transfers from 

the General Fund of the Treasury. Over the long-range period, the net effect of the proposal on 

the 75-year actuarial balance would be negligible (i.e., less than 0.005 percent of payroll). Table 

1, attached, indicates that the effect of the changes in the Bill would increase annual cost and 

annual income for the OASDI program by equal amounts in all years beginning with 2020. These 

estimates do not reflect the implications of any change in administrative expenses necessary to 

implement the provisions of this Bill.

The implications of the proposal for beneficiaries would change over the long-range period.

Eventually, the beneficiaries affected by the proposal will be limited to the roughly 25 percent of 

all state and local government employees with earnings that are not covered by OASDI, because 

the closed group of Federal government employees whose earnings are not covered by OASDI 

were all hired before 1984. 

Tables 1b and 1b.n show the effects of enacting the proposal on federal budget operations. With 

enactment, the annual on-budget and unified budget balances are reduced starting 2020, and both 

publicly-held debt and total federal debt subject to limit are increased.

Our estimates for the proposal reflect extensive innovative analysis of data for individuals born in 

1950 with experience through May of 2018, including SSA records of earnings not covered by 

OASDI back to 1978, with adjustments for over-recording of non-covered earnings for years 

1978 through 1981. This analysis has allowed us to model the potential effect of the proposal for 

2018 as if it were fully in effect for all retired and disabled workers at that time. Based on these 

results, we are able to model the expected effects of the PSP for benefit payments starting in 2022. 

Effects of the Proposal on Beneficiaries

In order to meaningfully illustrate the effects of enacting the Bill on workers who will become 

eligible starting in 2022 under this proposal, we provide here estimates of the effects of the 

provisions for all current beneficiaries in 2018, assuming the new approach were fully phased in 

and had applied for them since their initial benefit eligibility.
Page 4 – The Honorable Richard Neal

There were roughly 1.6 million retired-worker and disabled-worker beneficiaries in 2018 whose 

benefit was reduced under the current WEP and were not receiving a pension based on foreign 

employment. If the ultimate provisions of the bill had applied to them since their initial eligibility, 

the bill would have provided a higher average monthly benefit (on average, $74 higher) for about 

1.1 million (about 69 percent) of these beneficiaries. For this group of 1.1 million beneficiaries, 

their average monthly benefit using the PSP would have been $548, while their monthly benefit 

using the current WEP was $474. The remaining 0.5 million (about 31 percent) of the beneficiaries 

reduced by the WEP in 2018 would have had no change in their benefits under this bill. These 

beneficiaries received an average benefit of $643 under the current WEP.

Additionally, we estimate monthly relief payments would have been provided to roughly 1.7 

million retired worker and disabled worker beneficiaries whose primary benefit was reduced under 

the WEP in 2018, assuming the relief payments had started in 2018 and that the other provisions of 

the proposal applied for beneficiaries becoming newly eligible after 2018.

We hope these estimates will be helpful. Please let us know if we may provide further assistance.

Sincerely,

 

Stephen C. Goss, ASA, MAAA

Chief Actuary

Enclosures
Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2019 13.91 12.85 -1.06 273 0.00 0.00 0.00

2020 13.95 12.88 -1.07 260 0.01 0.01 0.00

2021 14.13 12.93 -1.19 245 0.04 0.04 0.00

2022 14.27 12.96 -1.31 229 0.04 0.04 0.00

2023 14.43 12.98 -1.46 213 0.04 0.04 0.00

2024 14.62 13.01 -1.62 197 0.04 0.04 0.00

2025 14.82 13.02 -1.80 180 0.04 0.04 0.00

2026 15.02 13.15 -1.88 163 0.04 0.04 0.00

2027 15.23 13.17 -2.06 147 0.04 0.04 0.00

2028 15.47 13.21 -2.26 130 0.03 0.03 0.00

2029 15.66 13.22 -2.44 114 0.03 0.03 0.00

2030 15.84 13.24 -2.60 97 0.03 0.03 0.00

2031 16.00 13.25 -2.75 80 0.03 0.03 0.00

2032 16.14 13.26 -2.88 63 0.03 0.03 0.00

2033 16.26 13.27 -2.99 46 0.03 0.03 0.00

2034 16.36 13.27 -3.08 28 0.03 0.03 0.00

2035 16.43 13.28 -3.15 10 0.03 0.03 0.00

2036 16.49 13.28 -3.20 ---- 0.03 0.03 0.00

2037 16.54 13.29 -3.25 ---- 0.03 0.03 0.00

2038 16.59 13.29 -3.30 ---- 0.02 0.02 0.00

2039 16.63 13.29 -3.33 ---- 0.02 0.02 0.00

2040 16.64 13.29 -3.34 ---- 0.02 0.02 0.00

2041 16.63 13.29 -3.34 ---- 0.02 0.02 0.00

2042 16.61 13.29 -3.32 ---- 0.02 0.02 0.00

2043 16.57 13.29 -3.28 ---- 0.02 0.02 0.00

2044 16.54 13.29 -3.25 ---- 0.02 0.02 0.00

2045 16.50 13.29 -3.22 ---- 0.02 0.02 0.00

2046 16.47 13.28 -3.18 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2047 16.44 13.28 -3.16 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2048 16.42 13.28 -3.13 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2049 16.40 13.28 -3.11 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2050 16.38 13.28 -3.10 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2051 16.37 13.28 -3.09 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2052 16.38 13.28 -3.09 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2053 16.38 13.29 -3.10 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2054 16.40 13.29 -3.11 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2055 16.42 13.29 -3.13 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2056 16.45 13.29 -3.16 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2057 16.49 13.30 -3.20 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2058 16.54 13.30 -3.24 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2059 16.59 13.30 -3.28 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2060 16.64 13.31 -3.33 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2061 16.69 13.31 -3.38 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2062 16.75 13.32 -3.43 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2063 16.80 13.32 -3.48 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2064 16.85 13.33 -3.53 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2065 16.91 13.33 -3.58 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2066 16.97 13.33 -3.63 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2067 17.03 13.34 -3.69 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2068 17.09 13.34 -3.74 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2069 17.15 13.35 -3.80 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2070 17.21 13.35 -3.86 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2071 17.26 13.35 -3.91 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2072 17.31 13.36 -3.96 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2073 17.36 13.36 -4.00 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2074 17.40 13.37 -4.04 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2075 17.44 13.37 -4.07 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2076 17.47 13.37 -4.10 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2077 17.49 13.37 -4.12 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2078 17.50 13.37 -4.12 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2079 17.49 13.37 -4.12 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2080 17.48 13.37 -4.10 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2081 17.46 13.37 -4.08 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2082 17.44 13.37 -4.06 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2083 17.41 13.37 -4.04 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2084 17.39 13.37 -4.02 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2085 17.37 13.37 -4.00 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2086 17.35 13.37 -3.99 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2087 17.34 13.36 -3.98 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2088 17.34 13.36 -3.97 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2089 17.35 13.37 -3.98 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2090 17.37 13.37 -4.00 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2091 17.40 13.37 -4.03 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2092 17.44 13.37 -4.07 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2093 17.49 13.37 -4.11 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

2094 17.54 13.38 -4.16 ---- 0.01 0.01 0.00

Summarized Rates: OASDI Summarized Rates: OASDI

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

2019 - 2093 16.61% 13.83% -2.78% 2035 0.02% 0.02% 0.00%

Office of the Chief Actuary

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2019 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration 1

Under current law the year of combined Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2035. September 30, 2019

H.R. 4540, the "Public Servants Protection and Fairness Act," introduced by Chairman Neal

Year of reserve 

depletion1

Proposal Change from Current Law

Expressed as a percentage of current-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of current-law

taxable payroll
Table 1b - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI (Present Value Dollars)

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers1

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow2

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Cash Flow2

Change in Total

Federal Debt

Subject to Limit

End Of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

2019 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2020 0.7 0.0 -0.7 0.7 -0.7 -0.7 0.7 -0.7

2021 2.9 0.0 -2.9 3.7 -3.0 -2.9 3.7 -3.0

2022 3.0 0.0 -3.0 6.7 -3.1 -3.0 6.7 -3.1

2023 3.0 0.0 -3.0 9.7 -3.2 -3.0 9.7 -3.2

2024 3.0 0.0 -3.0 12.6 -3.3 -3.0 12.6 -3.3

2025 3.0 0.0 -3.0 15.6 -3.4 -3.0 15.6 -3.4

2026 2.9 0.0 -2.9 18.6 -3.4 -2.9 18.6 -3.4

2027 2.9 0.0 -2.9 21.5 -3.5 -2.9 21.5 -3.5

2028 2.9 0.0 -2.9 24.3 -3.6 -2.9 24.3 -3.6

2029 2.8 0.0 -2.8 27.2 -3.7 -2.8 27.2 -3.7

2030 2.8 0.0 -2.8 29.9 -3.9 -2.8 29.9 -3.9

2031 2.7 0.0 -2.7 32.6 -4.0 -2.7 32.6 -4.0

2032 2.6 0.0 -2.6 35.2 -4.1 -2.6 35.2 -4.1

2033 2.5 0.0 -2.5 37.7 -4.2 -2.5 37.7 -4.2

2034 2.4 0.0 -2.4 40.1 -4.2 -2.4 40.1 -4.2

2035 2.3 0.0 -2.3 42.3 -4.2 -2.3 42.3 -4.2

2036 2.1 0.0 -2.1 44.5 -4.2 -2.1 44.5 -4.2

2037 2.0 0.0 -2.0 46.5 -4.2 -2.0 46.5 -4.2

2038 1.9 0.0 -1.9 48.3 -4.2 -1.9 48.3 -4.2

2039 1.8 0.0 -1.8 50.1 -4.1 -1.8 50.1 -4.1

2040 1.6 0.0 -1.6 51.7 -4.1 -1.6 51.7 -4.1

2041 1.5 0.0 -1.5 53.2 -4.1 -1.5 53.2 -4.1

2042 1.4 0.0 -1.4 54.7 -4.0 -1.4 54.7 -4.0

2043 1.3 0.0 -1.3 56.0 -4.0 -1.3 56.0 -4.0

2044 1.2 0.0 -1.2 57.2 -4.0 -1.2 57.2 -4.0

2045 1.1 0.0 -1.1 58.3 -3.9 -1.1 58.3 -3.9

2046 1.1 0.0 -1.1 59.4 -3.9 -1.1 59.4 -3.9

2047 1.0 0.0 -1.0 60.4 -3.9 -1.0 60.4 -3.9

2048 1.0 0.0 -1.0 61.4 -3.9 -1.0 61.4 -3.9

2049 0.9 0.0 -0.9 62.3 -3.9 -0.9 62.3 -3.9

2050 0.9 0.0 -0.9 63.2 -4.0 -0.9 63.2 -4.0

2051 0.9 0.0 -0.9 64.0 -4.0 -0.9 64.0 -4.0

2052 0.8 0.0 -0.8 64.9 -4.0 -0.8 64.9 -4.0

2053 0.8 0.0 -0.8 65.7 -4.0 -0.8 65.7 -4.0

2054 0.8 0.0 -0.8 66.5 -4.0 -0.8 66.5 -4.0

2055 0.8 0.0 -0.8 67.3 -4.1 -0.8 67.3 -4.1

2056 0.8 0.0 -0.8 68.1 -4.1 -0.8 68.1 -4.1

2057 0.8 0.0 -0.8 68.9 -4.1 -0.8 68.9 -4.1

2058 0.8 0.0 -0.8 69.7 -4.2 -0.8 69.7 -4.2

2059 0.8 0.0 -0.8 70.5 -4.2 -0.8 70.5 -4.2

2060 0.8 0.0 -0.8 71.3 -4.2 -0.8 71.3 -4.2

2061 0.8 0.0 -0.8 72.1 -4.3 -0.8 72.1 -4.3

2062 0.8 0.0 -0.8 72.9 -4.3 -0.8 72.9 -4.3

2063 0.8 0.0 -0.8 73.6 -4.3 -0.8 73.6 -4.3

2064 0.8 0.0 -0.8 74.4 -4.4 -0.8 74.4 -4.4

2065 0.8 0.0 -0.8 75.2 -4.4 -0.8 75.2 -4.4

2066 0.8 0.0 -0.8 75.9 -4.4 -0.8 75.9 -4.4

2067 0.8 0.0 -0.8 76.7 -4.5 -0.8 76.7 -4.5

2068 0.7 0.0 -0.7 77.4 -4.5 -0.7 77.4 -4.5

2069 0.7 0.0 -0.7 78.2 -4.5 -0.7 78.2 -4.5

2070 0.7 0.0 -0.7 78.9 -4.6 -0.7 78.9 -4.6

2071 0.7 0.0 -0.7 79.6 -4.6 -0.7 79.6 -4.6

2072 0.7 0.0 -0.7 80.4 -4.6 -0.7 80.4 -4.6

2073 0.7 0.0 -0.7 81.1 -4.7 -0.7 81.1 -4.7

2074 0.7 0.0 -0.7 81.8 -4.7 -0.7 81.8 -4.7

2075 0.7 0.0 -0.7 82.6 -4.7 -0.7 82.6 -4.7

2076 0.7 0.0 -0.7 83.3 -4.8 -0.7 83.3 -4.8

2077 0.7 0.0 -0.7 84.0 -4.8 -0.7 84.0 -4.8

2078 0.7 0.0 -0.7 84.7 -4.8 -0.7 84.7 -4.8

2079 0.7 0.0 -0.7 85.4 -4.9 -0.7 85.4 -4.9

2080 0.7 0.0 -0.7 86.1 -4.9 -0.7 86.1 -4.9

2081 0.7 0.0 -0.7 86.8 -4.9 -0.7 86.8 -4.9

2082 0.7 0.0 -0.7 87.5 -4.9 -0.7 87.5 -4.9

2083 0.7 0.0 -0.7 88.1 -5.0 -0.7 88.1 -5.0

2084 0.7 0.0 -0.7 88.8 -5.0 -0.7 88.8 -5.0

2085 0.7 0.0 -0.7 89.5 -5.0 -0.7 89.5 -5.0

2086 0.7 0.0 -0.7 90.1 -5.0 -0.7 90.1 -5.0

2087 0.6 0.0 -0.6 90.8 -5.1 -0.6 90.8 -5.1

2088 0.6 0.0 -0.6 91.4 -5.1 -0.6 91.4 -5.1

2089 0.6 0.0 -0.6 92.0 -5.1 -0.6 92.0 -5.1

2090 0.6 0.0 -0.6 92.7 -5.1 -0.6 92.7 -5.1

2091 0.6 0.0 -0.6 93.3 -5.2 -0.6 93.3 -5.2

2092 0.6 0.0 -0.6 93.9 -5.2 -0.6 93.9 -5.2

2093 0.6 0.0 -0.6 94.5 -5.2 -0.6 94.5 -5.2

Total 2019-2093 94.5 0.0 -94.5 -94.5

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2019 Trustees Report.

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.5%.

Note: Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would 

 nonetheless be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. Office of the Chief Actuary 1 Reflects reimbursement to OASDI Trust Funds for increased WEP benefits and relief payments. Social Security Administration 2

 Unified budget and on-budget cash flows show effect of increased WEP benefits and relief payments.

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2019

H.R. 4540, the "Public Servants Protection and Fairness Act," introduced by Chairman Neal

September 30, 2019
Table 1b.n - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI (Nominal Dollars)

H.R. 4540, the "Public Servants Protection and Fairness Act," introduced by Chairman Neal

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers1

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow2

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year3

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance3

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Cash Flow2

Change in Total

Federal Debt

Subject to Limit

End of Year3

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance3

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

2019 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2020 0.8 0.0 -0.8 0.8 -0.8 -0.8 0.8 -0.8

2021 3.1 0.0 -3.1 4.0 -3.2 -3.1 4.0 -3.2

2022 3.3 0.0 -3.3 7.4 -3.5 -3.3 7.4 -3.5

2023 3.4 0.0 -3.4 11.1 -3.7 -3.4 11.1 -3.7

2024 3.5 0.0 -3.5 14.9 -3.9 -3.5 14.9 -3.9

2025 3.6 0.0 -3.6 19.0 -4.1 -3.6 19.0 -4.1

2026 3.6 0.0 -3.6 23.3 -4.3 -3.6 23.3 -4.3

2027 3.7 0.0 -3.7 27.8 -4.5 -3.7 27.8 -4.5

2028 3.8 0.0 -3.8 32.6 -4.8 -3.8 32.6 -4.8

2029 3.9 0.0 -3.9 37.8 -5.2 -3.9 37.8 -5.2

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2019 Trustees Report.

Note: Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would 

 nonetheless be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public.

1

 Reflects reimbursement to OASDI Trust Funds for increased WEP benefits and relief payments. Office of the Chief Actuary 2 Unified budget and on-budget cash flows show effect of increased WEP benefits and relief payments. Social Security Administration 3

 Includes the effect of accumulated interest income.

Billions of Nominal Dollars

September 30, 2019