SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE, MD 21235-0001

SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

November 9, 2021 

The Honorable Al Lawson

United States House of Representatives 

Washington, D.C. 20515 

Dear Representative Lawson: 

I am writing in response to your request for our estimates of the financial effects on Social 

Security of enacting H.R. 5737, the Social Security for Future Generations Act of 2021, which 

you introduced on October 26, 2021. The estimates provided here reflect the intermediate 

assumptions and baseline projections of the 2021 Trustees Report. 

This Bill (hereafter referred to as the proposal) includes six provisions with direct effects on the 

Social Security trust funds. We have enjoyed working with JessiKa Eglin of your staff. The 

estimates and analysis provided here reflect the combined effort of many in the Office of the 

Chief Actuary, but most particularly Karen Glenn, Christopher Chaplain, Daniel Nickerson, Kyle 

Burkhalter, Michael Clingman, Anna Kirjusina, Katie Sutton, and Tiffany Bosley. 

The enclosed tables provide estimates of the effects of the six provisions on the cost, income, and 

combined trust fund reserves for the Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) 

program, as well as estimated effects on retired worker benefit levels for selected hypothetical 

workers and effects on payroll tax levels. In addition, tables 1b and 1b.n provide estimates of the 

federal budget implications of these six provisions with direct effects on the OASDI program. 

We estimate that enactment of these provisions would extend the ability of the OASDI program 

to pay scheduled benefits in full and on time for an additional 10 years. That is, the date of 

projected depletion of the combined OASI and DI Trust Fund reserves would be moved from 

2034 under current law to 2044 assuming enactment of the proposal, under the intermediate 

assumptions of the 2021 Trustees Report.

The proposal includes six provisions with direct effects on the OASDI program. The following 

list briefly describes these provisions: 

Section 2 and Section 3. Apply the combined OASDI payroll tax rate on covered earnings 

above $250,000 paid in 2022 and later. Tax all covered earnings once the current-law taxable 

maximum exceeds $250,000. Credit the additional earnings that are taxed for benefit purposes 

by: (a) calculating a second average indexed monthly earnings (“AIME+”) reflecting only 

additional earnings taxed above the current-law taxable maximum, (b) applying a 2-percent 
Page 2 – The Honorable Al Lawson

factor on this newly computed “AIME+” to develop a second component of the PIA, and (c) 

adding this second PIA component to the current-law PIA.

Section 4. Use the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E) increase rather than the 

Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increase to 

calculate the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), effective for December 2023 and later 

COLAs. We assume this change would increase the COLA by an average of 0.2 percentage 

point per year.

Section 5. Beginning in 2022, extend student benefits up to attainment of age 23 for children 

of disabled, retired or deceased workers, if the child is a full-time student in high school or 

below, college, or vocational school.

Section 6. Increase the special minimum PIA, beginning for workers who become newly 

eligible for retirement or disability benefits or die in 2022 or later. For workers becoming 

newly eligible or dying in 2022, the minimum initial PIA for workers with 30 or more years 

of coverage (YOCs) is 125 percent of the annual poverty guideline for a single individual 

published by the Department of Health and Human Services for 2021, divided by 12. For 

workers becoming newly eligible or dying after 2022, the minimum initial PIA is increased 

from 2022 by the growth in the national average wage index (AWI).

Section 7. Establish an alternative benefit for surviving spouses. The alternative benefit would 

equal 75 percent of the sum of the survivor’s own worker benefit and the deceased worker’s 

PIA (including any actuarial reductions or delayed retirement credits (DRC)). If the deceased 

worker died before becoming entitled, use the age 62 actuarial reduction if deceased before 

age 62, or the applicable actuarial reduction/DRC for entitlement at the age of death if 

deceased after 62. An upper limit is applied for the alternative benefit amount.

The balance of this letter provides a summary of the effects of the six provisions on the actuarial 

status of the OASDI program, our understanding of the specifications and intent of each of the 

six provisions, and descriptions of our detailed financial estimates for trust fund operations, 

benefit levels, and implications for the federal budget. See the “Specification for Provisions of 

the Proposal” section of this letter for a more detailed description of these six provisions.

Summary of Effects of the Proposal on OASDI Actuarial Status

Figure 1 illustrates the projected OASDI Trust Fund ratio through 2095 under current law and 

assuming enactment of the proposal. The trust fund ratio is defined as the combined OASI and 

DI Trust Fund reserves expressed as a percent of annual program cost. Assuming enactment of 

the proposal, the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds are expected to be able to pay scheduled 

benefits in full and on time for an additional 10 years, under the intermediate assumptions of the 

2021 Trustees Report.
Page 3 – The Honorable Al Lawson

Under current law, 78 percent of scheduled benefits are projected to be payable on a timely basis 

in 2034 after depletion of the combined trust fund reserves, with the percentage payable 

declining to 74 percent for 2095. Under the proposal, 88 percent of scheduled benefits are 

projected to be payable on a timely basis in 2044 after depletion of the combined trust fund 

reserves, with the percentage payable declining to 85 percent for 2095. 

Enactment of the six provisions of this proposal would decrease the long-range OASDI actuarial 

deficit from 3.54 percent of taxable payroll under current law to 1.88 percent of payroll under the 

proposal. 

Figure 2 illustrates annual projected levels of cost, expenditures, and non-interest income as a 

percent of the current-law taxable payroll. The projected level of cost reflects the full cost of 

scheduled benefits under both current law and the proposal. After trust fund reserve depletion, 

projected expenditures under current law and under the proposal include only amounts payable 

from projected tax revenues (non-interest income), which are less than projected cost. 

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2021 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Trust Fund Ratio

Figure 1. Current-Law and Proposal OASDI Trust Fund Reserves as Percent of 

Annual Cost: 2021 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Current-Law Trust Fund Ratio

Proposal
Page 4 – The Honorable Al Lawson

OASDI program annual cost under the proposal is higher than under current law, starting in 

2022. This difference between proposal and current-law cost increases from 0.2 percent of 

current-law payroll for 2022 to 0.5 percent of current-law payroll for 2035 and to 0.8 percent of 

current-law payroll for 2095. Beginning in 2022, non-interest income under the proposal is 

projected to be higher than under current law. This difference between proposal and current-law 

income increases from 1.6 percent of current-law payroll for 2022 to 2.3 percent of current-law 

payroll for 2035, and thereafter increases much more gradually, reaching 2.4 percent of currentlaw payroll for 2095. For 2022 and later, the proposal improves the annual balance (non-interest 

income minus program cost).

It is also useful to consider the projected cost, expenditures, and income for the OASDI program 

expressed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Figure 3 illustrates these levels 

under both current law and the proposal.

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

2021 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Percent of Current-Law Taxable Payroll

Figure 2. Proposal and Current-Law Cost, Expenditures, and Non-Interest Income 

as Percent of Taxable Payroll: 2021 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Current-Law Cost

Current-Law Non-Interest Income

Current-Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Non-Interest Income

Proposal Expenditures
Page 5 – The Honorable Al Lawson

Specification for Provisions of the Proposal

Section 2 and Section 3. Apply the combined OASDI payroll tax rate on covered earnings 

above $250,000 paid in 2022 and later.

These provisions apply the OASDI payroll tax rate to covered earnings above $250,000 paid in 

2022 and later. The $250,000 level is a fixed amount after 2022 and is not indexed to price 

inflation or average wage increase. All covered earnings would be taxed once the current-law 

taxable maximum exceeds $250,000, which is projected to occur in 2037. Any covered earnings 

above the higher of $250,000 or the current-law taxable maximum in a given year would be 

counted as “excess wages” and would be credited for benefit purposes by:

a. Calculating a second average indexed monthly earnings (“AIME+”) reflecting only 

additional earnings taxed above the current-law maximum,

b. Applying a 2-percent PIA factor to this newly computed “AIME+” to develop a second 

component of the PIA, and

c. Adding this second PIA component to the current-law PIA.

In response to the application of the OASDI payroll tax to covered earnings above $250,000 for 

2022 and later, we assume employers and employees will redistribute total employee 

compensation among taxes, wages, and other compensation. This behavioral response is 

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

2021 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Percent of GDP

Figure 3. Proposal and Current-Law Cost, Expenditures, and Non-Interest Income 

as Percent of GDP: 2021 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Current-Law Cost

Current-Law Non-Interest Income

Current-Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Non-Interest Income

Proposal Expenditures
Page 6 – The Honorable Al Lawson

projected to reduce somewhat both the payroll tax revenue and the scheduled benefits that would 

accrue in the absence of this behavioral response.

We estimate that enactment of these two provisions alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 2.40 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2095) by 2.60 percent of payroll.

Section 4. Use the CPI-E increase rather than the CPI-W increase to calculate the COLA, 

effective for December 2023 and later COLAs.

Under current law, the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) applied to Social Security 

benefits is calculated using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical 

Workers (CPI-W). We estimate that using the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E) 

increase rather than the CPI-W increase in each year beginning with the December 2023 COLA 

would increase the effective COLA by 0.2 percentage points per year on average.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.42 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2095) by 0.56 percent of payroll.

Section 5. Beginning in 2022, extend student benefits up to attainment of age 23 for children 

of disabled, retired or deceased workers, if the child is a full-time student in high school or 

below, college, or vocational school.

Under current law, benefits are available to children of retired, disabled, and deceased workers 

who are full-time students at a secondary school or elementary schools, up to attainment of age 

19. This proposed provision would extend eligibility of full-time student benefits (including 

post-secondary students) up to attainment of age 23, starting in 2022.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.07 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2095) by 0.07 percent of payroll.

Section 6. Increase the special minimum PIA for workers who become newly eligible for 

retirement or disability benefits or die in 2022 or later.

Under this provision, the minimum initial PIA for workers becoming newly eligible or dying in 

2022 with 30 or more years of coverage (YOCs) would be 125 percent of the annual poverty 

guideline for a single individual published by the Department of Health and Human Services for 

2021, divided by 12. For those with less than 30 YOCs, the minimum PIA per YOC in excess of 

10 YOCs is the minimum PIA for workers with 30 or more YOCs, divided by 20. Any year in 

which a worker earns 4 quarters of coverage is determined to be a YOC. For workers becoming 

newly eligible or dying after 2022, the initial PIA per YOC in excess of 10 YOCs is indexed 

from the 2022 level by growth in the AWI to determine the minimum PIA applicable for the year 

of initial eligibility. After the year of initial eligibility, the minimum benefit is increased by the 

COLA for each cohort. The 30 and 10 YOC thresholds apply for all workers, including those 

who die or become disabled under age 62.
Page 7 – The Honorable Al Lawson

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.13 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2095) by 0.18 percent of payroll.

Section 7. Establish an alternative benefit for surviving spouses.

Under current law, surviving spouses aged 60 or older are eligible to receive the higher of their 

own worker benefit (as a retiree or a disabled worker) or the benefit amount their deceased 

spouse was eligible to receive, subject to potential reductions for age at benefit entitlement. This 

proposed provision is intended to allow surviving spouses to receive an alternative benefit when 

it is higher than the benefit available under current law.

The alternative benefit would be computed as 75 percent of the sum of (a) the worker benefit (as 

a retired worker or as a disabled worker) the survivor is eligible to receive, including any 

reductions for age or delayed retirement credits (DRC) and (b) the worker benefit the deceased 

spouse would be eligible to receive if still alive, reflecting any reduction for age at entitlement or 

DRC (or if not entitled at death, then the reduction for age or DRC available for entitlement at 

the date of death or the earliest time thereafter). However, the size of the alternative benefit so 

computed would be limited so as not to exceed the PIA (unreduced for early retirement or 

increased by DRC) for a theoretical retired worker becoming entitled to benefits at age 62 in the 

same year the deceased first became entitled to a benefit (or the year of death if not yet entitled), 

with earnings for each year equal to the AWI. Benefits under this provision would be payable for 

all surviving spouses receiving benefits at the beginning of 2022 and those becoming eligible in 

2022 and later.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.11 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2095) by 0.11 percent of payroll.

Detailed Financial Results for the Provisions of the Proposal

Summary Results by Provision

Table A provides estimates of the effects on the OASDI long-range actuarial balance of the 

provisions of the proposal separately and on a combined basis. The table also includes estimates 

of the effect of the provisions on the annual balance (the difference between income rate and the 

cost rate, expressed as a percent of current-law taxable payroll) for the 75th projection year, 2095. 

Interaction among individual provisions is reflected only in the total estimates for the combined 

provisions.

Benefit Illustrations

Tables B1 and B2 provide illustrative examples of the projected change in benefit levels under 

the provisions of the proposal for beneficiaries retiring and starting benefit receipt at age 65 in 

future years at six selected earnings levels, with selected numbers of years of work. The 

“Maximum-AIME Steady Earner” is assumed to have earnings at ages 22 through 64 that equal 
Page 8 – The Honorable Al Lawson

the current-law taxable maximum level (equivalent to $142,800 for 2021) and the “Twice 

Maximum-AIME Steady Earner” is assumed to have earnings at ages 22 through 64 that equal 

twice the current-law taxable maximum level (equivalent to $285,600 for 2021). As a result, the 

provision to tax and credit earnings above the current-law taxable maximum affects only the 

“Twice Maximum-AIME Steady Earner” benefit level. Table B3 provides additional important 

information on characteristics of retired workers represented by these illustrations for the year 

2016.

The first several columns of Table B1 compare the initial scheduled benefit levels, assuming 

retirement at age 65 under the provisions of the proposal, to scheduled current-law benefit levels. 

Among the examples in the table, the proposed minimum benefit affects only the very-lowAIME and low-AIME hypothetical workers with 30 or more years of earnings. The scheduled 

benefit amounts under the proposal shown in the “payroll tax and benefit formula” column are 

lower than under current law by about 2 percent in 2040, 2060, and 2090, for all workers except 

the twice maximum-current-law-AIME worker, due to the assumed behavioral response to the 

increased payroll tax in 2022 and later. For the twice current-law-AIME worker, these lower 

benefit amounts are more than offset by the additional earnings subject to payroll tax above the 

current-law taxable maximum and credited for benefit purposes. The twice-maximum-AIME

hypothetical worker has an ultimate 4.8 percent benefit increase at age 65 due to earnings taxed 

over the current-law taxable maximum. In addition, effects of the changes to the COLA 

calculation and to the minimum benefit calculation are shown in separate columns. The final two

columns of this table show the level of scheduled benefits under the proposal as a percentage of 

current-law scheduled benefits and the level of payable benefits under the proposal as a 

percentage of current-law payable benefits.

Table B2 provides two comparisons: (1) the percentage change in scheduled benefit levels at 

ages 65, 75, 85, and 95 under the proposal compared to scheduled benefits under current law; 

and (2) the percentage change in payable benefit levels at the same four ages under the proposal 

compared to payable benefits under current law. Each comparison assumes retirement and start 

of benefit receipt at age 65. Table B2 shows that projected scheduled benefits under the 

provisions of this proposal increase with age in relation to current-law scheduled benefits across 

all earnings levels due to the change from using the CPI-W to the generally higher CPI-E to 

calculate the COLA. 

The hypothetical workers represented in these tables reflect average career-earnings patterns of 

workers who started receiving retirement benefits under the Social Security program in recent 

years. The tables subdivide workers with very-low, low, and medium career-average earnings 

levels by their numbers of years of non-zero earnings.

Table B3 provides information helpful in interpreting the benefit illustrations in Tables B1 and 

B2. Percentages in Table B3 are based on tabulations from a 10-percent sample of newly-entitled 

retired workers in 2016. Table B3 displays the percentages of these newly-entitled retired

workers in 2016 that are closest to each of the illustrative examples and are:

1) “Dually Entitled”, meaning they received a higher spouse or widow(er) benefit based on 

the career earnings of their husband or wife,
Page 9 – The Honorable Al Lawson

2) “WEP” (Windfall Elimination Provision), meaning that they received a reduced benefit 

due to having a pension based on earnings that were not covered under the OASDI 

program (primarily certain government workers), and they had less than 30 years of 

substantial earnings that were taxable under the OASDI program,

3) “Foreign Born”, meaning that they entered the Social Security coverage area after birth 

(and generally after entering working ages), and

4) “All Others”, meaning they had none of the three characteristics listed above.

The extent to which retired-worker beneficiaries represented by each of the illustrative examples 

have any of the characteristics listed above (dually entitled, WEP, foreign born) is important 

because such individuals are less dependent on the OASDI benefit that relates to their own 

career-average earnings level. It should be noted that the distributions shown in Table B3 for 

retirees in 2016 will be changing somewhat for beneficiaries becoming entitled as retired-worker 

beneficiaries in the future.

Payroll Tax Effects

Table T compares the scheduled payroll tax levels under the provisions of the proposal to 

scheduled current-law payroll tax levels. Under the proposal, the 12.4 percent payroll tax would 

apply to annual earnings in excess of $250,000 starting in 2022. As a result, Table T shows that 

the example worker with earnings at twice the current-law taxable maximum in 2040 and later 

would have payroll tax liability increased by 100 percent. In addition, there would be effects on 

earnings (and therefore payroll taxes paid) due to the assumed behavioral response by employees 

and employers; these effects are not included in this table.

Detailed Tables Containing Annual and Summary Projections

Enclosed with this letter are tables 1, 1a, 1b, 1b.n, 1c, 1d, and 1d.n, which provide annual and 

summary projections for the proposal.

Trust Fund Operations

Table 1 provides projections of the financial operations of the OASDI program under the 

proposal and shows that the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds would be able to pay scheduled 

benefits in full and on time for an additional 10 years assuming enactment of the six provisions. 

The year in which the combined reserves of the OASI and DI Trust Funds are projected to 

become depleted would change from 2034 under current law to 2044 under the proposal. Even 

after depletion of the trust fund reserves, however, the actuarial status of the program would be 

improved as continuing income would be sufficient to pay a higher percentage of scheduled 

benefits than under current law. Under current law, 78 percent of scheduled benefits are 

projected to be payable at trust fund reserve depletion in 2034, declining to 74 percent payable 

by 2095. Under this proposal, 100 percent of the proposed (higher) scheduled benefits would be 

fully payable through 2043, and 88 percent would be payable at trust fund reserve depletion in 

2044, declining to 85 percent payable by 2095.

The table shows the annual cost and income rates, annual balances, and trust fund ratios 

(reserves as percent of annual program cost) for OASDI, as well as the change from current law 
Page 10 – The Honorable Al Lawson

in these cost rates, income rates, and annual balances. Included at the bottom of this table are 

summarized rates for the 75-year (long-range) period.

For 2022 and later, the proposal improves the annual balance (non-interest income minus 

program cost). The improvement in the annual balance increases from 1.4 percent of current-law 

payroll for 2022 to 1.8 percent of payroll for 2036, and thereafter generally decreases to 1.7

percent of payroll for 2095. Under the proposal, the annual deficit declines from 1.8 percent of 

current-law payroll for 2021 to less than 0.1 percent of current-law payroll for 2022. The annual 

deficit generally increases to 3.3 percent of current-law payroll for 2078, and then decreases 

throughout the rest of the long-range period, reaching 2.7 percent of current-law payroll for 

2095. Under current law, the projected annual deficit for 2095 is 4.3 percent of payroll.

The actuarial deficit for the OASDI program over the 75-year projection period is reduced by 

1.66 percent of taxable payroll, from an actuarial deficit of 3.54 percent of payroll under current 

law to an actuarial deficit of 1.88 percent of taxable payroll under the proposal.

Program Transfers and Trust Fund Reserves

Column 4 of Table 1a provides a projection of the level of reserves for the combined OASI and 

DI Trust Funds, assuming enactment of the six Social Security provisions of the proposal. These 

trust fund reserve amounts are expressed in present value dollars discounted to January 1, 2021. 

The table indicates that the provisions include no new specified transfers of general revenue to 

the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds. For purpose of comparison, the OASDI Trust Fund 

reserves, expressed in present value dollars, are also shown for the current-law Social Security 

program both without and with the added proposal general fund transfers (zero in this case) in 

columns 6 and 7.

Note that negative values in columns 6 and 7 represent the “unfunded obligation” for the 

program through the year. The unfunded obligation is the present value of the shortfall of 

revenue needed to pay full scheduled benefits on a timely basis from the date of trust fund 

reserve depletion through the end of the indicated year. Gross Domestic Product (GDP),

expressed in present value dollars, is shown in column 5 for comparison with other values in the 

table.

Effect of the Social Security Provisions on the Federal Budget

Table 1b shows the projected effect, in present value discounted dollars, on the federal budget 

(unified-budget and on-budget) annual cash flows and balances, assuming enactment of the six 

Social Security provisions of the proposal. Our analysis provided in these tables does not reflect 

the effects on these programs under the on-budget operations of the federal government. Table 

1b.n provides the estimated nominal dollar effect of enactment of the proposal on annual budget 

balances for years 2021 through 2031. All values in these tables represent the amount of change 

from the level projected under current law. In addition, changes reflect the budget scoring 

convention that presumes benefits, not payable under the law after depletion of trust fund 

reserves, would still be paid using revenue provided from the General Fund of the Treasury. The 

reader should be cautioned that this presumption of payment of benefits beyond the resources of 
Page 11 – The Honorable Al Lawson

the trust funds is prohibited under current law and is also inconsistent with all past experience 

under the Social Security program.

Column 1 of Table 1b shows the added proposal general fund transfers (zero for this proposal).

Column 2 shows the net changes in OASDI cash flow from all provisions of the proposal.

We project the net effect of the proposal on unified budget cash flow (column 3) to be positive in 

years 2022 and later, primarily due to the payroll tax newly applied to earnings above the 

current-law taxable maximum in Section 2 and Section 3.

Column 4 of Table 1b indicates that the effect of implementing the proposal would be a 

reduction of the theoretical federal debt held by the public, reaching about $9.9 trillion in present 

value at the end of the 75-year projection period. Column 5 provides the projected effect of the 

proposal on the annual unified budget balances, including both the cash flow effect in column 3 

and the additional interest on the accumulated debt in column 4. Columns 6 and 7 indicate that 

the provisions of this proposal would have no expected direct effects on the on-budget cash flow, 

or on the total federal debt, in the future.

It is important to note that we base these estimates on the intermediate assumptions of the 2021

Trustees Report, so these estimates are not consistent with estimates made by the Office of 

Management and Budget or the Congressional Budget Office based on their assumptions. In 

particular, all present values are discounted using trust fund yield assumptions under the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2021 Trustees Report.

Annual Trust Fund Operations as a Percent of GDP

Table 1c provides annual cost, annual expenditures (amount that would be payable), and annual 

tax income for the OASDI program expressed as a percentage of GDP for both current law and 

assuming enactment of the six Social Security provisions of the proposal. Showing the annual 

trust fund cash flows as a percent of GDP provides an additional perspective on these trust fund 

operations in relation to the total value of goods and services produced in the United States. The 

relationship between income and cost is similar when expressed as a percent of GDP to that 

when expressed as a percent of taxable payroll (Table 1).

Effects on Trust Fund Reserves and Unfunded Obligations

Table 1d provides estimates of the changes in trust fund reserves and unfunded obligations on an 

annual basis, expressed in present value dollars discounted to January 1, 2021. Table 1d.n

provides the same estimates, expressed in nominal dollars, for years 2021 through 2031.

For the 75-year (long-range) period as a whole, the current-law unfunded obligation of $19.8

trillion would be reduced to $10.0 trillion in present value at the end of 2095, assuming 

enactment of the proposal. This change of $9.9 trillion results from:

• A $13.3 trillion net increase in revenue (column 2), primarily from additional payroll 

tax revenue due to eliminating the taxable maximum, minus
Page 12 – The Honorable Al Lawson

• A $3.4 trillion net increase in cost (column 3), primarily from the change to CPI-E to 

calculate the COLA, expanding student benefits, the special minimum PIA provision, 

the alternative benefit for a surviving spouse, and additional benefits from earnings 

taxed above the current-law taxable maximum.

We hope these estimates are helpful. Please let me know if we may provide further assistance.

Sincerely,

 Stephen C. Goss, ASA, MAAA

Chief Actuary

Enclosures
Table A—Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of H.R. 5737,

the “Social Security for Future Generations Act of 2021” (117th Congress), 

Introduced by Rep. Lawson

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

for 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

Section 2 and Section 3) Apply the OASDI payroll tax rate on 

covered earnings above $250,000 paid in 2022 and later, and 

tax all covered earnings once the current-law taxable 

maximum exceeds $250,000. Credit the additional earnings 

taxed for benefit purposes by: (a) calculating a second average 

indexed monthly earnings (“AIME+”) reflecting only earnings 

taxed above the current-law taxable maximum, (b) applying a 

2 percent factor on this newly computed “AIME+” to develop 

a second component of the PIA, and (c) adding this second 

PIA component to the current-law PIA ...................................... 2.40 2.60

Section 4) Use the increase in the Consumer Price Index for 

the Elderly (CPI-E) rather than the increase in the Consumer 

Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers

(CPI-W) to calculate the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), 

effective for December 2023 and later COLAs. We estimate 

this new computation would increase the annual COLA by 

about 0.2 percentage point, on average....................................... -0.42 -0.56

Section 5) Beginning in 2022, extend student benefits up to 

attainment of age 23 for children of disabled, retired, or 

deceased workers, if the child is a full-time student in high 

school or below, college, or vocational school........................... -0.07 -0.07

Section 6) Beginning in 2022, reconfigure the special 

minimum PIA for workers who become newly eligible for 

retirement or disability benefits or die, in 2022 or later: (a) A 

year of coverage (YOC) is defined as a year in which 4 

quarters of coverage are earned, (b) For those becoming newly 

eligible or dying in 2022 with 30 or more YOCs, set the initial 

minimum PIA equal to 125 percent of the 2021 Department of 

Health and Human Services’ (HHS) monthly poverty level. 

For those with under 30 YOCs, the initial PIA per YOC in 

excess of 10 YOCs is 125 percent of the HHS monthly 

poverty level for 2021, divided by 20, (c) For workers 

becoming newly eligible or dying after 2022, index the initial 

PIA per YOC from the 2022 level by growth in the national 

average wage index (AWI), (d) Minimum benefit levels are 

increased by the COLA after the year of initial eligibility, and 

(e) The 30 and 10 YOC thresholds apply for all workers, 

including those who die or become disabled under age 62........ -0.13 -0.18
Table A—Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of H.R. 5737,

the “Social Security for Future Generations Act of 2021” (117th Congress), 

Introduced by Rep. Lawson

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

for 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

Section 7) Establish an alternative benefit for a surviving 

spouse. For the surviving spouse, the alternative benefit 

would equal 75 percent of the sum of the survivor's own 

worker benefit and the deceased worker's PIA (including any 

actuarial reductions or delayed retirement credits). If the 

deceased worker died before becoming entitled, use the age 62 

actuarial reduction if deceased before age 62, or the applicable 

actuarial reduction/DRC for entitlement at the age of death if 

deceased after 62. The alternative benefit would be limited so 

as not to exceed the PIA for a hypothetical earner who earned

the AWI every year, and who becomes eligible at age 62 for 

retired-worker benefits in the same year in which the deceased 

worker became entitled to worker benefits or died (if before 

entitlement). The alternative benefit would be paid only if 

more than the current-law benefit. This benefit would be 

available to surviving spouses on the rolls at the beginning of 

2022 and those becoming eligible during and after 2022 .......... -0.11 -0.11

Total for all provisions, including interaction........................ 1.66 1.67

1Under current law, the estimated long-range OASDI actuarial balance is -3.54 percent of taxable payroll. 2Under current law, the estimated 75th year annual balance is -4.34 percent of taxable payroll.

Notes: All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2021 OASDI Trustees Report. 

 Estimates of individual provisions appear on a stand-alone basis relative to current law, unless otherwise stated.

Social Security Administration

Office of the Chief Actuary

November 9, 2021
Proposal Proposal

Year Scheduled to Payable to

Attain Payroll Tax and Minimum Current Law Current Law

Age 65 (Wage-Indexed (CPI-Indexed COLA5 Benefit Formula6 Benefit7 Total Scheduled Payable

2021 Dollars) 2021 Dollars)

 

2021 815 815 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 800 1,009 0.6 -2.1 38.9 36.8 137 178

2060 803 1,259 0.6 -2.1 38.8 36.8 137 157

2090 803 1,758 0.6 -2.0 38.8 36.9 137 157

 

2021 815 815 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 800 1,009 0.6 -2.1 0.0 -1.5 98 128

2060 803 1,259 0.6 -2.1 0.0 -1.5 99 113

2090 803 1,758 0.6 -2.0 0.0 -1.4 99 113

 

2021 815 815 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 800 1,009 0.6 -2.1 0.0 -1.5 98 128

2060 803 1,259 0.6 -2.1 0.0 -1.5 99 113

2090 803 1,758 0.6 -2.0 0.0 -1.4 99 113

2021 1,067 1,067 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 1,048 1,321 0.6 -2.1 6.1 4.5 104 136

2060 1,051 1,647 0.6 -2.1 6.1 4.5 104 120

2090 1,051 2,302 0.6 -2.0 6.1 4.6 105 120

2021 1,067 1,067 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 1,048 1,321 0.6 -2.1 6.1 4.5 104 136

2060 1,051 1,647 0.6 -2.1 6.1 4.5 104 120

2090 1,051 2,302 0.6 -2.0 6.1 4.6 105 120

2021 1,067 1,067 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 1,048 1,321 0.6 -2.1 0.0 -1.5 98 128

2060 1,051 1,647 0.6 -2.1 0.0 -1.5 99 113

2090 1,051 2,302 0.6 -2.0 0.0 -1.4 99 113

2021 1,759 1,759 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 1,727 2,178 0.6 -2.1 0.0 -1.5 99 128

2060 1,733 2,716 0.6 -2.1 0.0 -1.5 99 113

2090 1,734 3,795 0.6 -1.9 0.0 -1.4 99 113

2021 1,759 1,759 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 1,727 2,178 0.6 -2.1 0.0 -1.5 99 128

2060 1,733 2,716 0.6 -2.1 0.0 -1.5 99 113

2090 1,734 3,795 0.6 -1.9 0.0 -1.4 99 113

2021 2,329 2,329 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 2,286 2,882 0.6 -2.1 0.0 -1.5 98 128

2060 2,294 3,596 0.6 -2.1 0.0 -1.5 99 113

2090 2,295 5,024 0.6 -2.0 0.0 -1.4 99 113

2021 2,841 2,841 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 2,800 3,530 0.6 -2.0 0.0 -1.5 99 128

2060 2,802 4,392 0.6 -2.0 0.0 -1.5 99 113

2090 2,802 6,135 0.6 -2.0 0.0 -1.4 99 113

2021 2,841 2,841 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 2,800 3,530 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.1 101 131

2060 2,802 4,392 0.6 4.1 0.0 4.7 105 120

2090 2,802 6,135 0.6 4.8 0.0 5.4 105 120

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2021 Trustees Report.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration November 9, 2021

After the trust fund reserves deplete under current law continuing taxes are expected to be enough to pay about three fourths of scheduled benefits.

Starting Dec 2023, compute the COLA using increases in the CPI-E, producing 0.2% higher annual COLAs on average.

Starting in 2022, apply the OASDI payroll tax rate on earnings above $250,000, and tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $250,000. Credit the additional earnings for benefit 

purposes by: (a) calculating a second average indexed monthly earnings ("AIME+") reflecting only earnings taxed above the current law taxable maximum, (b) applying a 2 percent factor on this newly 

computed "AIME+" to develop a second component of the PIA, and (c) adding this second PIA component to the first PIA component.

For beneficiaries newly eligible in 2022, establish a minimum PIA level such that a worker with 30/10 years of coverage would receive an initial PIA of at least 125%/0% of the monthly poverty level for 

2021. For beneficiaries newly eligible after 2022, the initial minimum PIA level would be adjusted for average wage growth. The Minimum Benefit percent change is calculated after all other provisions, so 

that the Proposal Benefit Amount is at least the Minimum Benefit, where applicable.

This analysis reflects only the provisions of the proposal identified in this table and described in the footnotes above.

Of the 7.2 percent of retirees with current-law AIME closest to the Maximum-Current-Law level, about 33 percent (or 2.4 percent of all retirees) would have an AIME closer to the Twice Maximum-CurrentLaw level if their earnings were not limited by annual taxable maximums.

 Very-Low-AIME ($14,766 for 20211) 14-Year Scaled Earner (3.4% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($26,579 for 20211) 44-Year Scaled Earner (18.8% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($26,579 for 20211) 30-Year Scaled Earner (3.6% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($26,579 for 20211) 20-Year Scaled Earner (1.3% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($59,065 for 20211) 44-Year Scaled Earner (27.6% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($59,065 for 20211) 30-Year Scaled Earner (1.7% of Retirees2)

 High-AIME ($94,503 for 20211) 44-Year Scaled Earner (19.8% of Retirees2)

 Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($142,800 for 20211) 43-Year Steady Earner (7.2% of Retirees2

)

 Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($285,600 for 20211) 43-Year Steady Earner3

Average of highest 35 years of taxable earnings wage indexed to 2021. For the Maximum and Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME workers, we show one times and two times the 2021 taxable maximum, 

respectively.

Projected percent of newly entitled retired worker beneficiaries in 2050 with current-law AIME levels and years of covered earnings closest to AIME levels and close to years of covered earnings shown. See 

details in Note 1 on table B3.

Monthly Benefits4

(Percent change) (Percents)

 Very-Low-AIME ($14,766 for 20211) 30-Year Scaled Earner (11.5% of Retirees2

)

 Very-Low-AIME ($14,766 for 20211

) 20-Year Scaled Earner (5.0% of Retirees2

)

Table B1. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Becoming Newly Entitled at age 65 

"Social Security for Future Generations Act of 2021," Introduced by Representative Lawson

Benefit Ratios

Scheduled Benefit Level Percent Change at age 65

Current Law Scheduled
Year 

Attain

Age 65 Age 65 Age 75 Age 85 Age 95 Age 65 Age 75 Age 85 Age 95

2021 100.0 101.6 103.6 105.6 100.0 101.6 134.9 121.3

2040 136.8 139.5 142.2 145.0 177.7 160.2 163.2 166.1

2060 136.8 139.5 142.2 145.0 156.9 159.8 162.7 165.8

2090 136.9 139.6 142.4 145.2 156.6 159.8 4 4

2021 100.0 101.6 103.6 105.6 100.0 101.6 134.9 121.3

2040 98.5 100.4 102.4 104.4 128.0 115.3 117.5 119.6

2060 98.5 100.5 102.4 104.5 113.0 115.1 117.2 119.5

2090 98.6 100.6 102.5 104.6 112.8 115.1 4 4

2021 100.0 101.6 103.6 105.6 100.0 101.6 134.9 121.3

2040 98.5 100.4 102.4 104.4 128.0 115.3 117.5 119.6

2060 98.5 100.5 102.4 104.5 113.0 115.1 117.2 119.5

2090 98.6 100.6 102.5 104.6 112.8 115.1 4 4

2021 100.0 101.6 103.6 105.6 100.0 101.6 134.9 121.3

2040 104.5 106.5 108.6 110.8 135.8 122.3 124.6 126.9

2060 104.5 106.6 108.6 110.8 119.9 122.1 124.3 126.7

2090 104.6 106.7 108.8 110.9 119.6 122.1 4 4

2021 100.0 101.6 103.6 105.6 100.0 101.6 134.9 121.3

2040 104.5 106.5 108.6 110.8 135.8 122.3 124.6 126.9

2060 104.5 106.6 108.6 110.8 119.9 122.1 124.3 126.7

2090 104.6 106.7 108.8 110.9 119.6 122.1 4 4

2021 100.0 101.6 103.6 105.6 100.0 101.6 134.9 121.3

2040 98.5 100.4 102.4 104.4 128.0 115.3 117.5 119.6

2060 98.5 100.5 102.4 104.5 113.0 115.1 117.2 119.5

2090 98.6 100.6 102.5 104.6 112.8 115.1 4 4

2021 100.0 101.6 103.6 105.6 100.0 101.6 134.9 121.3

2040 98.5 100.4 102.4 104.4 128.0 115.4 117.5 119.6

2060 98.5 100.5 102.4 104.5 113.0 115.1 117.2 119.5

2090 98.6 100.6 102.6 104.6 112.8 115.1 4 4

2021 100.0 101.6 103.6 105.6 100.0 101.6 134.9 121.3

2040 98.5 100.4 102.4 104.4 128.0 115.4 117.5 119.6

2060 98.5 100.5 102.4 104.5 113.0 115.1 117.2 119.5

2090 98.6 100.6 102.6 104.6 112.8 115.1 4 4

2021 100.0 101.6 103.6 105.6 100.0 101.6 134.9 121.3

2040 98.5 100.4 102.4 104.4 128.0 115.4 117.5 119.6

2060 98.5 100.5 102.4 104.5 113.0 115.1 117.2 119.5

2090 98.6 100.6 102.6 104.6 112.8 115.1 4 4

2021 100.0 101.6 103.6 105.6 100.0 101.6 134.9 121.3

2040 98.5 100.5 102.5 104.5 128.1 115.4 117.6 119.7

2060 98.5 100.5 102.5 104.5 113.1 115.1 117.3 119.5

2090 98.6 100.6 102.5 104.6 112.8 115.1 4 4

2021 100.0 101.6 103.6 105.6 100.0 101.6 134.9 121.3

2040 101.1 103.1 105.1 107.2 131.4 118.4 120.6 122.8

2060 104.7 106.8 108.9 111.0 120.1 122.3 124.6 127.0

2090 105.4 107.4 109.6 111.7 120.5 123.0 4 4

1

2

3

4

Note:

-

-

-

- This analysis reflects only the provisions of the proposal identified in Table B1 and described in the notes above.

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2021 Trustees Report.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration November 9, 2021

 Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($285,600 for 20211) 43-Year Steady Earner3

Average of highest 35 years of taxable earnings wage indexed to 2021. For the Maximum and Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME workers, we show one times and 

two times the 2021 taxable maximum, respectively.

Projected percent of newly entitled retired worker beneficiaries in 2050 with current-law AIME levels and years of covered earnings closest to AIME levels and close to 

years of covered earnings shown. See details in Note 1 on table B3.

Of the 7.2 percent of retirees with current-law AIME closest to the Maximum-Current-Law level, about 33 percent (or 2.4 percent of all retirees) would have an AIME 

closer to the Twice Maximum-Current-Law level if their earnings were not limited by annual taxable maximums.

The proposal payable benefit as percent of current law payable benefit is not presented for years of payment beyond the 75-year projection period.

Starting Dec 2023, compute the COLA using increases in the CPI-E, producing 0.2% higher annual COLAs on average.

Starting in 2022, apply the OASDI payroll tax rate on earnings above $250,000, and tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $250,000. Credit 

the additional earnings for benefit purposes by: (a) calculating a second average indexed monthly earnings ("AIME+") reflecting only earnings taxed above the current 

law taxable maximum, (b) applying a 2 percent factor on this newly computed "AIME+" to develop a second component of the PIA, and (c) adding this second PIA 

component to the first PIA component.

For beneficiaries newly eligible in 2022, establish a minimum PIA level such that a worker with 30/10 years of coverage would receive an initial PIA of at least 

125%/0% of the monthly poverty level for 2021. For beneficiaries newly eligible after 2022, the initial minimum PIA level would be adjusted for average wage growth.

 Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($142,800 for 20211) 43-Year Steady Earner (7.2% of Retirees2)

(Percent)

 Very-Low-AIME ($14,766 for 20211

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (11.5% of Retirees2

)

 Very-Low-AIME ($14,766 for 20211) 20-Year Scaled Earner (5.0% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($14,766 for 20211) 14-Year Scaled Earner (3.4% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($26,579 for 20211) 44-Year Scaled Earner (18.8% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($26,579 for 20211) 30-Year Scaled Earner (3.6% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($26,579 for 20211) 20-Year Scaled Earner (1.3% of Retirees2

)

 Medium-AIME ($59,065 for 20211

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (27.6% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($59,065 for 20211) 30-Year Scaled Earner (1.7% of Retirees2)

 High-AIME ($94,503 for 20211

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (19.8% of Retirees2)

Table B2. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Becoming Newly Entitled age 65 

"Social Security for Future Generations Act of 2021," Introduced by Representative Lawson

Proposal Scheduled Benefit as Percent of Proposal Payable Benefit as Percent of 

Current Law Scheduled Benefit Current Law Payable Benefit
Category 

(AIME and Years of Covered Earnings Close to) Dually Entitled2 WEP3 Foreign Born All Others4

Very-Low-AIME ($11,592 for 20161):

30-Year Scaled Earner (7.9% of Retirees) 27 8 14 53

20-Year Scaled Earner (6.0% of Retirees) 27 16 27 35

14-Year Scaled Earner (5.2% of Retirees) 21 20 52 19

Low-AIME ($20,856 for 20161):

44-Year Scaled Earner (13.0% of Retirees) 8 2 7 83

30-Year Scaled Earner (6.8% of Retirees) 13 8 25 56

20-Year Scaled Earner (2.4% of Retirees) 9 21 47 29

Medium-AIME ($46,368 for 20161):

44-Year Scaled Earner (25.8% of Retirees) 1 1 6 92

30-Year Scaled Earner (3.3% of Retirees) 1 12 37 53

High-AIME ($74,184 for 20161):

44-Year Scaled Earner (20.3% of Retirees) 0 1 8 91

Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($118,500 for 20161):

Steady Earner (9.3% of Retirees) 0 0 9 91

1

2

3

4 Not foreign born, not dually entitled by the end of 2018, and not reduced by WEP by the end of 2018.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration June 18, 2020

Table B3. Characteristics of Retired Worker Beneficiaries Becoming Newly Entitled in 2016

Percent of Beneficiaries Within Each Category That Are:

Note 1: Table B3 displays certain characteristics of newly-entitled retired worker beneficiaries in 2016 who are similar to the illustrative hypothetical workers shown in 

tables B1 and B2. The categories shown here include those workers with AIME closest to the earnings level shown, and with years of covered earnings close to the number 

shown. In particular: 

- For the Very-Low-AIME category, 

 - workers included in the "30-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 25+ years of covered earnings; 

 - workers included in the "20-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 18-24 years of covered earnings; 

 - workers included in the "14-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have less than 18 years of covered earnings.

- For the Low-AIME category, 

 - workers included in the "44-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 35+ years of covered earnings; 

 - workers included in the "30-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 25-34 years of covered earnings; 

 - workers included in the "20-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have less than 25 years of covered earnings.

- For the Medium-AIME category, 

 - workers included in the "44-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 35+ years of covered earnings; 

 - workers included in the "30-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have less than 35 years of covered earnings.

- Workers included in the High-AIME "44-Year Scaled Earner" category have all numbers of years of covered earnings.

- Workers included in the Maximum-Current-Law-AIME "Steady Earner" category have all numbers of years of covered earnings.

Note 2: The percentages in each category are based on tabulations of a 10-percent sample of newly entitled retired-worker beneficiaries in 2016 (288,627 records). We can 

be 95 percent confident that each of the values shown above is within 1.4 percentage points of the value we would find using 100 percent of the retirees in 2016.

Note 3: The sum of the percentages for each category (sum across rows) could be greater than 100 percent because some beneficiaries can be classified in more than one of 

the following groups: dually entitled, WEP, and foreign born. 

Average of highest 35 years of taxable earnings wage indexed to 2016.

Values in this column are percentages of retired workers newly entitled in 2016 who were also entitled to a higher benefit based on someone else’s account by the end of 

2018. The percentage that will ever become dually entitled is higher for most categories, because some retired workers newly entitled in 2016 will first become dually 

entitled after 2018.

Values in this column are percentages of retired workers newly entitled in 2016 who had their benefit reduced based on receipt of a pension from government 

employment under the windfall elimination provision (WEP) by the end of 2018. The percentage that will ever be reduced by WEP is higher for each category, because 

some retired workers newly entitled in 2016 will first receive a government pension after 2018.
Proposal Scheduled Payroll Taxes

Earnings Taxable Percent of Current Law

in Year (Wage-Indexed (CPI-Indexed Maximum2

2021 Dollars) 2021 Dollars) (Percents)

2021 153 153 0.0 100

2040 153 192 0.0 100

2060 153 239 0.0 100

2090 153 334 0.0 100

2021 275 275 0.0 100

2040 275 346 0.0 100

2060 275 431 0.0 100

2090 275 601 0.0 100

2021 610 610 0.0 100

2040 610 769 0.0 100

2060 610 957 0.0 100

2090 610 1,336 0.0 100

2021 977 977 0.0 100

2040 977 1,231 0.0 100

2060 977 1,531 0.0 100

2090 977 2,138 0.0 100

2021 1,476 1,476 0.0 100

2040 1,476 1,860 0.0 100

2060 1,476 2,313 0.0 100

2090 1,476 3,230 0.0 100

2021 1,476 1,476 0.0 100

2040 1,476 1,860 100.0 200

2060 1,476 2,313 100.0 200

2090 1,476 3,230 100.0 200

1

2

This analysis reflects only the provisions of the proposal identified in this table and described in the footnotes above.

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2021 Trustees Report.

Percentile among all workers with any covered earnings in 2021 (including earnings both above and below the current-law taxable maximum earnings level). We include those 

who will die or become disabled before reaching retirement age, and those who will not earn enough in their career to become fully insured for retired worker benefits. Thus, 

these percentiles are not directly comparable to the percentages in the B tables, which are based on lifetime earnings, and include only those who survive and become eligible for 

retirement benefits.

Apply the OASDI payroll tax rate on covered earnins above $250,000 starting in 2022, and tax all covered earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $250,000. In 

addition, there would be effects on earnings (and therefore payroll taxes paid) due to the assumed behavioral response by employees and employers.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration November 9, 2021

99th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($285,600 in 2021) Twice Current-Law Maximum Earnings Level

Table T. Changes in Payroll Tax Contributions (Employee + Employer) for Workers with OASDI Covered Earnings in the Year

"Social Security for Future Generations Act of 2021," Introduced by Representative Lawson

Scheduled Payroll Taxes Percent Change 

Current Law Scheduled

Monthly Total Payroll Taxes

(Percent change) 

26th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($14,766 in 2021)

40th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($26,579 in 2021)

70th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($59,065 in 2021)

86th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($94,503 in 2021)

94th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($142,800 in 2021) Current-Law Maximum Earnings Level
Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

"Social Security for Future Generations Act of 2021," Introduced by Representative Lawson

Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2021 14.11 12.31 -1.81 253 0.00 0.00 0.00

2022 14.49 14.48 -0.01 228 0.19 1.56 1.37

2023 14.62 14.57 -0.05 220 0.19 1.66 1.47

2024 14.86 14.63 -0.23 211 0.22 1.69 1.47

2025 15.11 14.68 -0.43 202 0.25 1.72 1.47

2026 15.39 14.83 -0.55 192 0.28 1.76 1.47

2027 15.68 14.89 -0.78 181 0.31 1.79 1.48

2028 15.97 14.97 -0.99 170 0.35 1.84 1.49

2029 16.24 15.05 -1.19 159 0.37 1.88 1.51

2030 16.51 15.12 -1.39 148 0.40 1.93 1.53

2031 16.70 15.19 -1.51 137 0.42 1.99 1.57

2032 16.87 15.27 -1.60 126 0.44 2.05 1.62

2033 17.01 15.35 -1.66 116 0.45 2.12 1.67

2034 17.13 15.43 -1.70 105 0.47 2.19 1.72

2035 17.22 15.51 -1.71 96 0.48 2.26 1.78

2036 17.30 15.59 -1.71 86 0.50 2.34 1.84

2037 17.37 15.60 -1.77 77 0.51 2.35 1.84

2038 17.43 15.61 -1.82 68 0.52 2.35 1.83

2039 17.48 15.62 -1.86 58 0.53 2.35 1.82

2040 17.51 15.62 -1.89 48 0.54 2.35 1.81

2041 17.56 15.63 -1.94 38 0.54 2.35 1.81

2042 17.59 15.63 -1.96 27 0.55 2.36 1.80

2043 17.60 15.63 -1.97 16 0.56 2.36 1.80

2044 17.61 15.64 -1.97 6 0.57 2.36 1.79

2045 17.62 15.64 -1.98 ---- 0.57 2.36 1.79

2046 17.64 15.64 -1.99 ---- 0.58 2.36 1.78

2047 17.66 15.65 -2.02 ---- 0.59 2.36 1.78

2048 17.69 15.65 -2.04 ---- 0.59 2.36 1.77

2049 17.71 15.65 -2.06 ---- 0.59 2.37 1.77

2050 17.74 15.66 -2.08 ---- 0.60 2.37 1.77

2051 17.76 15.66 -2.10 ---- 0.60 2.37 1.77

2052 17.79 15.67 -2.13 ---- 0.61 2.37 1.76

2053 17.83 15.67 -2.16 ---- 0.61 2.37 1.76

2054 17.87 15.67 -2.19 ---- 0.61 2.37 1.76

2055 17.91 15.68 -2.23 ---- 0.62 2.37 1.75

2056 17.96 15.69 -2.28 ---- 0.62 2.38 1.75

2057 18.01 15.69 -2.32 ---- 0.63 2.38 1.75

2058 18.07 15.70 -2.37 ---- 0.63 2.38 1.74

2059 18.13 15.70 -2.43 ---- 0.64 2.38 1.74

2060 18.19 15.71 -2.48 ---- 0.65 2.38 1.74

2061 18.25 15.72 -2.54 ---- 0.65 2.38 1.73

2062 18.31 15.72 -2.59 ---- 0.66 2.39 1.73

2063 18.37 15.73 -2.64 ---- 0.66 2.39 1.72

2064 18.42 15.73 -2.69 ---- 0.67 2.39 1.72

2065 18.48 15.74 -2.74 ---- 0.68 2.39 1.71

2066 18.54 15.75 -2.79 ---- 0.68 2.39 1.71

2067 18.59 15.75 -2.84 ---- 0.69 2.39 1.70

2068 18.65 15.76 -2.90 ---- 0.70 2.40 1.70

2069 18.71 15.76 -2.95 ---- 0.70 2.40 1.69

2070 18.78 15.77 -3.01 ---- 0.71 2.40 1.69

2071 18.84 15.77 -3.06 ---- 0.71 2.40 1.68

2072 18.89 15.78 -3.12 ---- 0.72 2.40 1.68

2073 18.95 15.78 -3.17 ---- 0.73 2.40 1.68

2074 19.01 15.79 -3.22 ---- 0.73 2.40 1.67

2075 19.05 15.79 -3.26 ---- 0.74 2.41 1.67

2076 19.09 15.80 -3.29 ---- 0.74 2.41 1.67

2077 19.12 15.80 -3.31 ---- 0.75 2.41 1.66

2078 19.13 15.81 -3.32 ---- 0.75 2.41 1.66

2079 19.12 15.81 -3.32 ---- 0.75 2.41 1.66

2080 19.11 15.81 -3.30 ---- 0.76 2.41 1.66

2081 19.09 15.81 -3.28 ---- 0.76 2.41 1.66

2082 19.05 15.81 -3.25 ---- 0.76 2.42 1.66

2083 19.01 15.81 -3.20 ---- 0.76 2.42 1.66

2084 18.96 15.81 -3.15 ---- 0.76 2.42 1.66

2085 18.90 15.80 -3.10 ---- 0.76 2.42 1.66

2086 18.84 15.80 -3.04 ---- 0.76 2.42 1.66

2087 18.77 15.80 -2.97 ---- 0.76 2.42 1.66

2088 18.70 15.80 -2.90 ---- 0.76 2.42 1.66

2089 18.63 15.79 -2.84 ---- 0.76 2.42 1.66

2090 18.57 15.79 -2.78 ---- 0.76 2.43 1.66

2091 18.53 15.79 -2.74 ---- 0.76 2.43 1.67

2092 18.49 15.79 -2.70 ---- 0.76 2.43 1.67

2093 18.47 15.79 -2.68 ---- 0.76 2.43 1.67

2094 18.46 15.79 -2.67 ---- 0.76 2.43 1.67

2095 18.46 15.79 -2.67 ---- 0.76 2.43 1.67

2096 18.46 15.79 -2.67 ---- 0.76 2.43 1.68

Summarized Rates: OASDI Summarized Rates: OASDI

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Year of reserve 

depletion1

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

2021 - 2095 17.90% 16.03% -1.88% 2044 0.59% 2.25% 1.66%

Office of the Chief Actuary

Note: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2021 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration 1

Under current law the year of combined Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. November 9, 2021

Proposal Change from Current Law

Expressed as a percentage of current-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of current-law

taxable payroll
Table 1a - General Fund Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Reserves, and Theoretical OASDI Reserves

"Social Security for Future Generations Act of 2021," Introduced by Representative Lawson

Percentage

of Payroll

Annual

Amounts

Accumulated as of 

End of Year

Gross Domestic 

Product

Without General

Fund Transfers

With Plan General

Fund Transfers

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,763.2 22,112.1 2,763.2 2,763.2

2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,763.0 22,884.7 2,649.7 2,649.7

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,759.7 23,424.2 2,521.2 2,521.2

2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,740.5 23,932.2 2,374.3 2,374.3

2025 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,703.1 24,474.3 2,206.2 2,206.2

2026 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,653.6 24,968.2 2,023.1 2,023.1

2027 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,582.1 25,396.4 1,815.0 1,815.0

2028 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,489.9 25,785.3 1,583.1 1,583.1

2029 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,377.9 26,128.5 1,327.8 1,327.8

2030 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,246.2 26,423.4 1,049.2 1,049.2

2031 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,101.8 26,659.4 753.2 753.2

2032 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,947.8 26,829.3 442.4 442.4

2033 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,787.6 26,946.7 119.9 119.9

2034 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,624.5 26,942.6 -210.5 -210.5

2035 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,461.1 26,815.2 -545.5 -545.5

2036 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,299.4 26,650.8 -883.4 -883.4

2037 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,133.8 26,469.4 -1,223.5 -1,223.5

2038 0.0 0.0 0.0 964.5 26,280.4 -1,564.8 -1,564.8

2039 0.0 0.0 0.0 792.9 26,088.4 -1,906.0 -1,906.0

2040 0.0 0.0 0.0 620.3 25,892.5 -2,246.1 -2,246.1

2041 0.0 0.0 0.0 445.5 25,694.8 -2,586.1 -2,586.1

2042 0.0 0.0 0.0 270.1 25,504.0 -2,924.7 -2,924.7

2043 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.8 25,322.1 -3,260.3 -3,260.3

2044 0.0 0.0 0.0 -77.7 25,143.2 -3,593.1 -3,593.1

2045 0.0 0.0 0.0 -250.3 24,968.8 -3,923.1 -3,923.1

2046 0.0 0.0 0.0 -422.6 24,793.0 -4,250.9 -4,250.9

2047 0.0 0.0 0.0 -595.1 24,616.7 -4,577.3 -4,577.3

2048 0.0 0.0 0.0 -768.1 24,443.0 -4,902.5 -4,902.5

2049 0.0 0.0 0.0 -941.3 24,281.2 -5,226.4 -5,226.4

2050 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,114.9 24,123.1 -5,549.2 -5,549.2

2051 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,289.0 23,966.7 -5,871.2 -5,871.2

2052 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,464.0 23,812.6 -6,192.6 -6,192.6

2053 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,640.2 23,659.3 -6,513.9 -6,513.9

2054 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,817.7 23,508.3 -6,835.2 -6,835.2

2055 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,997.1 23,360.1 -7,157.0 -7,157.0

2056 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,178.6 23,212.6 -7,479.5 -7,479.5

2057 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,362.4 23,067.0 -7,803.1 -7,803.1

2058 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,548.9 22,921.4 -8,128.1 -8,128.1

2059 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,738.3 22,775.4 -8,454.4 -8,454.4

2060 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,930.5 22,628.3 -8,782.3 -8,782.3

2061 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,125.4 22,482.1 -9,111.5 -9,111.5

2062 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,322.8 22,336.3 -9,441.8 -9,441.8

2063 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,522.6 22,189.8 -9,773.1 -9,773.1

2064 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,724.6 22,041.3 -10,105.2 -10,105.2

2065 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,928.8 21,891.7 -10,438.1 -10,438.1

2066 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4,135.2 21,742.3 -10,771.9 -10,771.9

2067 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4,343.8 21,594.0 -11,106.5 -11,106.5

2068 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4,554.6 21,444.6 -11,441.9 -11,441.9

2069 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4,767.7 21,293.3 -11,778.2 -11,778.2

2070 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4,983.2 21,142.2 -12,115.6 -12,115.6

2071 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5,200.8 20,992.7 -12,453.9 -12,453.9

2072 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5,420.4 20,844.6 -12,792.8 -12,792.8

2073 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5,641.8 20,698.5 -13,132.3 -13,132.3

2074 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5,864.8 20,555.4 -13,472.3 -13,472.3

2075 0.0 0.0 0.0 -6,088.9 20,416.2 -13,812.2 -13,812.2

2076 0.0 0.0 0.0 -6,313.6 20,278.7 -14,151.5 -14,151.5

2077 0.0 0.0 0.0 -6,538.1 20,144.2 -14,489.4 -14,489.4

2078 0.0 0.0 0.0 -6,761.4 20,014.1 -14,825.2 -14,825.2

2079 0.0 0.0 0.0 -6,982.7 19,887.9 -15,158.1 -15,158.1

2080 0.0 0.0 0.0 -7,201.4 19,764.3 -15,487.5 -15,487.5

2081 0.0 0.0 0.0 -7,417.0 19,643.3 -15,812.9 -15,812.9

2082 0.0 0.0 0.0 -7,629.1 19,526.8 -16,133.8 -16,133.8

2083 0.0 0.0 0.0 -7,836.9 19,414.0 -16,449.9 -16,449.9

2084 0.0 0.0 0.0 -8,040.1 19,303.7 -16,760.5 -16,760.5

2085 0.0 0.0 0.0 -8,238.3 19,195.8 -17,065.6 -17,065.6

2086 0.0 0.0 0.0 -8,431.5 19,090.3 -17,364.9 -17,364.9

2087 0.0 0.0 0.0 -8,619.2 18,986.3 -17,658.2 -17,658.2

2088 0.0 0.0 0.0 -8,801.3 18,882.3 -17,945.4 -17,945.4

2089 0.0 0.0 0.0 -8,978.4 18,778.1 -18,226.9 -18,226.9

2090 0.0 0.0 0.0 -9,150.8 18,675.2 -18,503.3 -18,503.3

2091 0.0 0.0 0.0 -9,319.2 18,572.5 -18,775.2 -18,775.2

2092 0.0 0.0 0.0 -9,484.6 18,469.3 -19,043.5 -19,043.5

2093 0.0 0.0 0.0 -9,647.6 18,364.7 -19,309.0 -19,309.0

2094 0.0 0.0 0.0 -9,808.9 18,258.5 -19,572.1 -19,572.1

2095 0.0 0.0 0.0 -9,968.9 18,151.2 -19,833.4 -19,833.4

2096 0.0 0.0 0.0 -10,128.0 18,043.5 -20,093.2 -20,093.2

Total 2021-2095 0.0

Notes: Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2021 Trustees Report.

 Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.3%. Office of the Chief Actuary 1

 Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption Social Security Administration

 that the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury. November 9, 2021

Calendar

Year

Proposal General Fund Transfers Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2021

Proposal

Total OASDI

Trust Fund

Reserves 

at End of Year

Theoretical Social Security1

with Borrowing Authority

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 

1-1-2021 Net OASDI Trust Fund Reserves at End of Year
Table 1b - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI (Present Value Dollars)

"Social Security for Future Generations Act of 2021," Introduced by Representative Lawson

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Cash Flow

Change in Total

Federal Debt

 Subject to Limit 

End Of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2022 0.0 113.3 113.3 -113.3 113.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 125.2 125.2 -238.5 127.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 127.8 127.8 -366.2 132.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 130.7 130.7 -496.9 138.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2026 0.0 133.6 133.6 -630.6 144.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2027 0.0 136.5 136.5 -767.0 151.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2028 0.0 139.8 139.8 -906.8 159.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2029 0.0 143.3 143.3 -1,050.1 168.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2030 0.0 146.9 146.9 -1,196.9 178.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2031 0.0 151.7 151.7 -1,348.6 190.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2032 0.0 156.8 156.8 -1,505.4 203.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2033 0.0 162.3 162.3 -1,667.7 216.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2034 0.0 167.2 167.2 -1,834.9 238.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2035 0.0 171.7 171.7 -2,006.6 253.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2036 0.0 176.2 176.2 -2,182.8 266.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2037 0.0 174.5 174.5 -2,357.3 272.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2038 0.0 172.0 172.0 -2,529.3 278.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2039 0.0 169.7 169.7 -2,699.0 284.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2040 0.0 167.4 167.4 -2,866.4 289.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2041 0.0 165.2 165.2 -3,031.6 295.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2042 0.0 163.2 163.2 -3,194.8 300.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2043 0.0 161.3 161.3 -3,356.1 306.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2044 0.0 159.3 159.3 -3,515.4 311.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2045 0.0 157.4 157.4 -3,672.8 317.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2046 0.0 155.6 155.6 -3,828.4 322.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2047 0.0 153.8 153.8 -3,982.2 327.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2048 0.0 152.2 152.2 -4,134.4 332.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2049 0.0 150.7 150.7 -4,285.0 338.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2050 0.0 149.3 149.3 -4,434.3 343.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2051 0.0 147.9 147.9 -4,582.2 349.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2052 0.0 146.5 146.5 -4,728.7 354.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2053 0.0 145.1 145.1 -4,873.8 359.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2054 0.0 143.7 143.7 -5,017.5 365.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2055 0.0 142.4 142.4 -5,159.9 370.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2056 0.0 141.1 141.1 -5,301.0 375.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2057 0.0 139.8 139.8 -5,440.7 380.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2058 0.0 138.4 138.4 -5,579.1 385.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2059 0.0 137.0 137.0 -5,716.2 390.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2060 0.0 135.7 135.7 -5,851.8 395.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2061 0.0 134.3 134.3 -5,986.1 399.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2062 0.0 132.9 132.9 -6,119.0 404.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2063 0.0 131.5 131.5 -6,250.5 409.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2064 0.0 130.1 130.1 -6,380.6 413.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2065 0.0 128.7 128.7 -6,509.3 418.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2066 0.0 127.3 127.3 -6,636.6 422.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2067 0.0 126.0 126.0 -6,762.6 427.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2068 0.0 124.6 124.6 -6,887.2 431.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2069 0.0 123.3 123.3 -7,010.5 435.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2070 0.0 121.9 121.9 -7,132.4 440.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2071 0.0 120.6 120.6 -7,253.1 444.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2072 0.0 119.4 119.4 -7,372.4 448.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2073 0.0 118.1 118.1 -7,490.6 452.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2074 0.0 116.9 116.9 -7,607.5 456.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2075 0.0 115.8 115.8 -7,723.2 461.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2076 0.0 114.6 114.6 -7,837.8 465.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2077 0.0 113.5 113.5 -7,951.4 469.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2078 0.0 112.5 112.5 -8,063.9 473.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2079 0.0 111.5 111.5 -8,175.4 477.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2080 0.0 110.6 110.6 -8,286.1 481.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2081 0.0 109.8 109.8 -8,395.8 485.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2082 0.0 109.0 109.0 -8,504.8 490.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2083 0.0 108.2 108.2 -8,613.0 494.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2084 0.0 107.5 107.5 -8,720.5 498.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2085 0.0 106.8 106.8 -8,827.3 502.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2086 0.0 106.2 106.2 -8,933.5 506.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2087 0.0 105.6 105.6 -9,039.0 511.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2088 0.0 105.0 105.0 -9,144.1 515.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2089 0.0 104.5 104.5 -9,248.6 519.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2090 0.0 104.0 104.0 -9,352.5 523.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2091 0.0 103.5 103.5 -9,456.0 528.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2092 0.0 102.9 102.9 -9,558.9 532.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2093 0.0 102.4 102.4 -9,661.3 536.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2094 0.0 101.8 101.8 -9,763.2 540.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2095 0.0 101.3 101.3 -9,864.4 544.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total 2021-2095 0.0 9,864.4 9,864.4

Notes: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2021 Trustees Report.

 Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.3%.

 Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would nonetheless Office of the Chief Actuary

 be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. Social Security Administration

 Budget cash flows do not reflect effects on the Medicare Hospital Insurance Trust Fund of income taxation of OASDI benefits.

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2021

November 9, 2021
Table 1b.n - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI (Nominal Dollars)

"Social Security for Future Generations Act of 2021," Introduced by Representative Lawson

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year1

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance1

Change in 

Annual On 

Budget Cash 

Flow

Change in Total

Federal Debt 

Subject to Limit 

End of Year1

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance1

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2022 0.0 117.3 117.3 -118.8 118.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 132.5 132.5 -255.4 136.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 138.2 138.2 -400.5 145.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 144.3 144.3 -554.9 154.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2026 0.0 150.8 150.8 -720.2 165.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2027 0.0 157.6 157.6 -897.9 177.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2028 0.0 165.6 165.6 -1,090.1 192.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2029 0.0 174.4 174.4 -1,298.7 208.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2030 0.0 184.1 184.1 -1,525.9 227.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2031 0.0 196.2 196.2 -1,775.9 250.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Notes: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2021 Trustees Report.

 Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would nonetheless

 be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. Office of the Chief Actuary

 Budget cash flows do not reflect effects on the Medicare Hospital Insurance Trust Fund of income taxation of OASDI benefits. Social Security Administration 1

 Includes the effect of accumulated interest income.

Billions of Nominal Dollars

November 9, 2021
Table 1c - Current Law and Proposal Cost, Expenditures, and Income: As Percent of Gross Domestic Product

"Social Security for Future Generations Act of 2021," Introduced by Representative Lawson

Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

2021 5.14 5.14 4.48 5.14 5.14 4.48

2022 5.17 5.17 4.67 5.24 5.24 5.24

2023 5.24 5.24 4.69 5.30 5.30 5.29

2024 5.32 5.32 4.71 5.40 5.40 5.32

2025 5.40 5.40 4.71 5.49 5.49 5.33

2026 5.49 5.49 4.75 5.59 5.59 5.39

2027 5.58 5.58 4.76 5.69 5.69 5.41

2028 5.67 5.67 4.77 5.80 5.80 5.44

2029 5.76 5.76 4.78 5.90 5.90 5.46

2030 5.84 5.84 4.78 5.99 5.99 5.48

2031 5.89 5.89 4.78 6.05 6.05 5.50

2032 5.94 5.94 4.78 6.10 6.10 5.52

2033 5.97 5.97 4.77 6.14 6.14 5.54

2034 6.00 5.20 4.77 6.17 6.17 5.55

2035 6.01 4.76 4.76 6.19 6.19 5.57

2036 6.03 4.75 4.75 6.20 6.20 5.59

2037 6.04 4.74 4.74 6.22 6.22 5.59

2038 6.04 4.74 4.74 6.23 6.23 5.58

2039 6.04 4.73 4.73 6.23 6.23 5.57

2040 6.04 4.72 4.72 6.23 6.23 5.56

2041 6.04 4.71 4.71 6.23 6.23 5.55

2042 6.04 4.70 4.70 6.23 6.23 5.54

2043 6.02 4.69 4.69 6.22 6.22 5.53

2044 6.01 4.69 4.69 6.21 5.87 5.52

2045 6.00 4.68 4.68 6.21 5.51 5.51

2046 6.00 4.67 4.67 6.20 5.50 5.50

2047 5.99 4.66 4.66 6.20 5.49 5.49

2048 5.99 4.66 4.66 6.20 5.48 5.48

2049 5.99 4.65 4.65 6.20 5.48 5.48

2050 5.99 4.64 4.64 6.19 5.47 5.47

2051 5.99 4.64 4.64 6.20 5.46 5.46

2052 5.99 4.63 4.63 6.20 5.46 5.46

2053 5.99 4.62 4.62 6.20 5.45 5.45

2054 5.99 4.62 4.62 6.21 5.44 5.44

2055 6.00 4.61 4.61 6.21 5.44 5.44

2056 6.01 4.61 4.61 6.22 5.43 5.43

2057 6.01 4.61 4.61 6.23 5.43 5.43

2058 6.03 4.60 4.60 6.24 5.42 5.42

2059 6.04 4.60 4.60 6.26 5.42 5.42

2060 6.05 4.59 4.59 6.27 5.42 5.42

2061 6.06 4.59 4.59 6.29 5.41 5.41

2062 6.07 4.59 4.59 6.30 5.41 5.41

2063 6.08 4.58 4.58 6.31 5.40 5.40

2064 6.09 4.58 4.58 6.32 5.40 5.40

2065 6.10 4.58 4.58 6.33 5.39 5.39

2066 6.11 4.57 4.57 6.35 5.39 5.39

2067 6.12 4.57 4.57 6.36 5.39 5.39

2068 6.13 4.56 4.56 6.37 5.38 5.38

2069 6.15 4.56 4.56 6.39 5.38 5.38

2070 6.16 4.56 4.56 6.40 5.37 5.37

2071 6.17 4.55 4.55 6.41 5.37 5.37

2072 6.18 4.55 4.55 6.43 5.37 5.37

2073 6.19 4.55 4.55 6.44 5.36 5.36

2074 6.20 4.54 4.54 6.45 5.36 5.36

2075 6.21 4.54 4.54 6.46 5.36 5.36

2076 6.21 4.54 4.54 6.47 5.35 5.35

2077 6.21 4.53 4.53 6.47 5.35 5.35

2078 6.21 4.53 4.53 6.46 5.34 5.34

2079 6.20 4.52 4.52 6.46 5.34 5.34

2080 6.19 4.52 4.52 6.44 5.33 5.33

2081 6.17 4.51 4.51 6.43 5.33 5.33

2082 6.16 4.51 4.51 6.41 5.32 5.32

2083 6.13 4.50 4.50 6.39 5.31 5.31

2084 6.11 4.49 4.49 6.37 5.31 5.31

2085 6.08 4.49 4.49 6.34 5.30 5.30

2086 6.06 4.48 4.48 6.31 5.29 5.29

2087 6.03 4.48 4.48 6.28 5.29 5.29

2088 6.00 4.47 4.47 6.25 5.28 5.28

2089 5.97 4.47 4.47 6.23 5.28 5.28

2090 5.95 4.46 4.46 6.20 5.27 5.27

2091 5.93 4.46 4.46 6.18 5.27 5.27

2092 5.91 4.45 4.45 6.16 5.26 5.26

2093 5.90 4.45 4.45 6.15 5.26 5.26

2094 5.89 4.45 4.45 6.15 5.26 5.26

2095 5.89 4.44 4.44 6.14 5.25 5.25

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Note: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2021 Trustees Report.

Current Law OASDI Proposal OASDI

Calendar

Year

November 9, 2021
Table 1d - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Reserves / Unfunded Obligation (Present Value Dollars)

"Social Security for Future Generations Act of 2021," Introduced by Representative Lawson

Year

Current Law OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Total Change

Through

End of Year

Proposal OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) = cumulative sum(4) (6) = (1)+(5)

2021 2,763.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,763.2

2022 2,649.7 128.9 15.6 113.3 113.3 2,763.0

2023 2,521.2 141.2 16.0 125.2 238.5 2,759.7

2024 2,374.3 146.9 19.1 127.8 366.2 2,740.5

2025 2,206.2 153.0 22.3 130.7 496.9 2,703.1

2026 2,023.1 159.3 25.6 133.6 630.6 2,653.6

2027 1,815.0 165.5 29.0 136.5 767.0 2,582.1

2028 1,583.1 172.1 32.3 139.8 906.8 2,489.9

2029 1,327.8 178.6 35.3 143.3 1,050.1 2,377.9

2030 1,049.2 184.9 38.0 146.9 1,196.9 2,246.2

2031 753.2 192.1 40.4 151.7 1,348.6 2,101.8

2032 442.4 199.1 42.3 156.8 1,505.4 1,947.8

2033 119.9 206.3 44.0 162.3 1,667.7 1,787.6

2034 -210.5 212.6 45.4 167.2 1,834.9 1,624.5

2035 -545.5 218.1 46.5 171.7 2,006.6 1,461.1

2036 -883.4 223.6 47.4 176.2 2,182.8 1,299.4

2037 -1,223.5 222.6 48.1 174.5 2,357.3 1,133.8

2038 -1,564.8 220.8 48.7 172.0 2,529.3 964.5

2039 -1,906.0 218.8 49.2 169.7 2,699.0 792.9

2040 -2,246.1 216.9 49.5 167.4 2,866.4 620.3

2041 -2,586.1 214.9 49.7 165.2 3,031.6 445.5

2042 -2,924.7 213.0 49.8 163.2 3,194.8 270.1

2043 -3,260.3 211.2 50.0 161.3 3,356.1 95.8

2044 -3,593.1 209.5 50.2 159.3 3,515.4 -77.7

2045 -3,923.1 207.8 50.3 157.4 3,672.8 -250.3

2046 -4,250.9 206.1 50.5 155.6 3,828.4 -422.6

2047 -4,577.3 204.4 50.6 153.8 3,982.2 -595.1

2048 -4,902.5 202.7 50.6 152.2 4,134.4 -768.1

2049 -5,226.4 201.2 50.5 150.7 4,285.0 -941.3

2050 -5,549.2 199.7 50.4 149.3 4,434.3 -1,114.9

2051 -5,871.2 198.2 50.4 147.9 4,582.2 -1,289.0

2052 -6,192.6 196.8 50.3 146.5 4,728.7 -1,464.0

2053 -6,513.9 195.3 50.3 145.1 4,873.8 -1,640.2

2054 -6,835.2 194.0 50.2 143.7 5,017.5 -1,817.7

2055 -7,157.0 192.6 50.2 142.4 5,159.9 -1,997.1

2056 -7,479.5 191.3 50.2 141.1 5,301.0 -2,178.6

2057 -7,803.1 190.0 50.2 139.8 5,440.7 -2,362.4

2058 -8,128.1 188.7 50.3 138.4 5,579.1 -2,548.9

2059 -8,454.4 187.4 50.3 137.0 5,716.2 -2,738.3

2060 -8,782.3 186.1 50.4 135.7 5,851.8 -2,930.5

2061 -9,111.5 184.8 50.5 134.3 5,986.1 -3,125.4

2062 -9,441.8 183.5 50.6 132.9 6,119.0 -3,322.8

2063 -9,773.1 182.2 50.7 131.5 6,250.5 -3,522.6

2064 -10,105.2 180.9 50.8 130.1 6,380.6 -3,724.6

2065 -10,438.1 179.6 50.9 128.7 6,509.3 -3,928.8

2066 -10,771.9 178.3 50.9 127.3 6,636.6 -4,135.2

2067 -11,106.5 177.0 51.0 126.0 6,762.6 -4,343.8

2068 -11,441.9 175.7 51.0 124.6 6,887.2 -4,554.6

2069 -11,778.2 174.3 51.1 123.3 7,010.5 -4,767.7

2070 -12,115.6 173.0 51.1 121.9 7,132.4 -4,983.2

2071 -12,453.9 171.7 51.1 120.6 7,253.1 -5,200.8

2072 -12,792.8 170.5 51.1 119.4 7,372.4 -5,420.4

2073 -13,132.3 169.2 51.1 118.1 7,490.6 -5,641.8

2074 -13,472.3 168.0 51.0 116.9 7,607.5 -5,864.8

2075 -13,812.2 166.8 51.0 115.8 7,723.2 -6,088.9

2076 -14,151.5 165.5 50.9 114.6 7,837.8 -6,313.6

2077 -14,489.4 164.4 50.9 113.5 7,951.4 -6,538.1

2078 -14,825.2 163.2 50.7 112.5 8,063.9 -6,761.4

2079 -15,158.1 162.1 50.6 111.5 8,175.4 -6,982.7

2080 -15,487.5 161.0 50.4 110.6 8,286.1 -7,201.4

2081 -15,812.9 160.0 50.2 109.8 8,395.8 -7,417.0

2082 -16,133.8 158.9 50.0 109.0 8,504.8 -7,629.1

2083 -16,449.9 157.9 49.7 108.2 8,613.0 -7,836.9

2084 -16,760.5 156.9 49.4 107.5 8,720.5 -8,040.1

2085 -17,065.6 156.0 49.2 106.8 8,827.3 -8,238.3

2086 -17,364.9 155.0 48.8 106.2 8,933.5 -8,431.5

2087 -17,658.2 154.1 48.5 105.6 9,039.0 -8,619.2

2088 -17,945.4 153.2 48.2 105.0 9,144.1 -8,801.3

2089 -18,226.9 152.3 47.8 104.5 9,248.6 -8,978.4

2090 -18,503.3 151.4 47.4 104.0 9,352.5 -9,150.8

2091 -18,775.2 150.5 47.1 103.5 9,456.0 -9,319.2

2092 -19,043.5 149.6 46.7 102.9 9,558.9 -9,484.6

2093 -19,309.0 148.8 46.4 102.4 9,661.3 -9,647.6

2094 -19,572.1 147.9 46.0 101.8 9,763.2 -9,808.9

2095 -19,833.4 147.0 45.7 101.3 9,864.4 -9,968.9

Total 2021-2095 13,302.9 3,438.5 9,864.4

Office of the Chief Actuary

Notes: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2021 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration

 Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.3%. November 9, 2021

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2021
Table 1d.n - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Reserves / Unfunded Obligation (Nominal Dollars)

"Social Security for Future Generations Act of 2021," Introduced by Representative Lawson

Year

Current Law OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Total Change

Through

End of Year1

Proposal OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) (6) = (1)+(5)

2021 2,831.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,831.0

2022 2,777.1 134.9 16.1 118.8 118.8 2,895.8

2023 2,699.7 153.5 16.9 136.6 255.4 2,955.0

2024 2,595.9 165.7 20.7 145.1 400.5 2,996.4

2025 2,463.2 179.2 24.7 154.5 554.9 3,018.1

2026 2,309.8 194.2 28.9 165.2 720.2 3,029.9

2027 2,123.6 211.2 33.5 177.7 897.9 3,021.5

2028 1,901.9 230.5 38.3 192.2 1,090.1 2,992.0

2029 1,640.8 251.6 43.1 208.6 1,298.7 2,939.5

2030 1,336.4 274.9 47.7 227.2 1,525.9 2,862.3

2031 991.0 302.3 52.3 250.0 1,775.9 2,766.9

Notes: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2021 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

 Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.3%. Social Security Administration 1 Includes the effect of accumulated interest income. November 9, 2021

Billions of Nominal Dollars