SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE, MD 21235-0001

SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

January 30, 2019

The Honorable John Larson

Subcommittee on Social Security

Committee on Ways and Means

United States House of Representatives

Washington, D.C. 20515

The Honorable Richard Blumenthal 

United States Senate

Washington, D.C. 20510

The Honorable Chris Van Hollen

United States Senate

Washington, D.C. 20510

Dear Chairman Larson, Senator Blumenthal, and Senator Van Hollen:

I am writing in response to your request for estimates of the financial effects on Social Security 

of the Social Security 2100 Act, which you introduced today. The estimates provided here reflect 

the intermediate assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report. This Bill (hereafter referred to as the 

proposal) includes eight provisions with direct effects on the Social Security Trust Funds. We 

have enjoyed working closely with Kathryn Olson, Scott Stephanou, Brian Steele, and Alyssa 

Penna of your staffs in developing this proposal to meet your goals. The estimates and analysis 

provided here reflect the combined effort of many in the Office of the Chief Actuary, but most 

particularly Karen Glenn, Christopher Chaplain, Daniel Nickerson, Kyle Burkhalter, Michael 

Clingman, Anna Kirjusina, Katie Sutton, and Tiffany Bosley.

The enclosed tables provide estimates of the effects of the eight provisions on the cost, income, 

and combined trust fund reserves for the Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI)

program, as well as estimated effects on retired worker benefit levels for selected hypothetical 

workers and effects on payroll tax levels. In addition, tables 1b and 1b.n provide estimates of the 

federal budget implications of these eight provisions with direct effects on the OASDI program.

Assuming enactment of the proposal, we estimate that the combined Social Security Trust Fund 

would be fully solvent (able to pay all scheduled benefits in full on a timely basis) throughout the 

75-year projection period, under the intermediate assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report. 

(Note that section 204 of this proposal would combine the currently separate operations and 

reserves of the OASI and DI Trust Funds into a single Social Security Trust Fund.) In addition, 
Page 2 – The Honorable John Larson, Richard Blumenthal, and Chris Van Hollen

under this proposal the OASDI program would meet the further conditions for sustainable 

solvency, because projected combined trust fund reserves would be growing as a percentage of 

the annual cost of the program at the end of the long-range period.

The proposal includes eight provisions with direct effects on the OASDI program. The following 

list briefly identifies each provision of the proposal:

Section 101. Increase the first PIA formula factor from 90 percent to 93 percent for all 

benefits payable for months of entitlement January 2020 and later, including benefits for 

those becoming newly eligible both before and after January 2020.

Section 102. Use the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E) increase rather than the 

Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increase to 

calculate the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), effective for December 2019 and later 

COLAs. We assume this change would increase the COLA by an average of 0.2 percentage 

point per year.

Section 103. Increase the special minimum PIA, beginning for workers who become newly 

eligible for retirement or disability benefits or die in 2020 or later. For workers becoming 

newly eligible or dying in 2020, the minimum PIA for 2020 for workers with 30 or more 

years of coverage (YOCs) is 125 percent of the annual poverty guideline for a single 

individual published by the Department of Health and Human Services for 2019, divided by 

12. For workers becoming newly eligible or dying after 2020, the minimum PIA for their 

initial year of eligibility is increased by the growth in the national average wage index (AWI). 

For all affected workers, the minimum PIA is increased after their year of initial eligibility by 

the COLA.

Section 104. Replace the current-law thresholds for federal income taxation of OASDI 

benefits with a single set of thresholds at $50,000 for single filers and $100,000 for joint filers

for taxation of up to 85 percent of OASDI benefits, effective for tax year 2020. These 

thresholds would be fixed and not indexed to price inflation or average wage increase. The 

amount of revenue from taxation of OASDI benefits that would be allocated to the HI Trust 

Fund will be at the same level as if the current-law computation (in the absence of this 

provision) were applied. The net amount of revenue from taxing OASDI benefits, after the 

allocation to HI, would be allocated to the combined Social Security Trust Fund.

Section 201 and Section 202. Apply the combined OASDI payroll tax rate on covered earnings 

above $400,000 paid in 2020 and later. Tax all covered earnings once the current-law taxable 

maximum exceeds $400,000. Credit the additional earnings that are taxed for benefit purposes 

by: (a) calculating a second average indexed monthly earnings (“AIME+”) reflecting only 

additional earnings taxed above the current-law taxable maximum, (b) applying a 2-percent 

factor on this newly computed “AIME+” to develop a second component of the PIA, and (c) 

adding this second component to the current-law PIA.

Section 203. Increase the combined OASDI payroll tax rate to 14.8 percent, fully effective for 

2043 and later. The combined rate is increased by 0.1 percentage point each year starting in 

2020, reaching the ultimate 14.8 percent rate for 2043 and later.
Page 3 – The Honorable John Larson, Richard Blumenthal, and Chris Van Hollen

Section 204. Beginning in 2020, establish a new Social Security Trust Fund by combining the 

reserves of the separate OASI and DI Trust Funds and managing all future financial 

operations of the program on a combined basis.

The balance of this letter provides a summary of the effects of the eight provisions on the 

actuarial status of the OASDI program, our understanding of the specifications and intent of each 

of the eight provisions, and descriptions of our detailed financial estimates for trust fund 

operations, benefit levels, and implications for the federal budget. See the “Specification for 

Provisions of the Proposal” section of this letter for a more detailed description of these eight 

provisions.

Summary of Effects of the Proposal on OASDI Actuarial Status

Figure 1 illustrates the projected OASDI Trust Fund ratio through 2092 under current law and 

assuming enactment of the proposal. The trust fund ratio is defined as the combined Social 

Security Trust Fund reserves expressed as a percent of annual program cost. Assuming 

enactment of the proposal, the combined Social Security Trust Fund would be fully solvent 

throughout the 75-year projection period, under the intermediate assumptions of the 2018

Trustees Report. In addition, because the projected trust fund ratio is increasing at the end of the 

period, the proposal meets the conditions for sustainable solvency.
Page 4 – The Honorable John Larson, Richard Blumenthal, and Chris Van Hollen

Note: Trust Fund Ratio for a given year is the ratio of reserves in the combined Social Security Trust Fund at the 

beginning of the year to the cost of the program for the year.

Under current law, 79 percent of scheduled benefits are projected to be payable on a timely basis 

in 2034 after depletion of the combined trust fund reserves, with the percentage payable 

declining to 74 percent for 2092. Under the proposal, the OASDI program would be solvent 

throughout the 75-year projection period, and would have the ability to pay 100 percent of 

scheduled benefits on a timely basis for the foreseeable future.

Enactment of the eight provisions of this proposal would change the long-range OASDI actuarial 

deficit from 2.84 percent of taxable payroll under current law to a positive actuarial balance of 

0.25 percent of payroll under the proposal.

Figure 2 illustrates annual projected levels of cost, expenditures, and non-interest income as a 

percent of the current-law taxable payroll. The projected level of cost reflects the full cost of 

scheduled benefits under both current law and the proposal. Under the proposal, projected 

expenditures equal the full cost of scheduled benefits throughout the long-range period.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2018 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095

Trust Fund Ratio

Figure 1. Current Law and Proposal OASDI Trust Fund Reserves as Percent of 

Annual Cost: 2018 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Current Law Trust Fund Ratio

Proposal
Page 5 – The Honorable John Larson, Richard Blumenthal, and Chris Van Hollen

OASDI program annual cost under the proposal is higher than under current law, starting in 

2020. This difference between proposal and current-law cost increases from 0.2 percent of 

current-law payroll for 2020 to 0.8 percent of current-law payroll for 2040, and thereafter 

increases more gradually, reaching 0.9 percent of current-law payroll for 2092. Beginning in 

2020, non-interest income under the proposal is projected to be higher than under current law. 

This difference between proposal and current-law income increases from 0.7 percent of currentlaw payroll for 2020 to 4.9 percent of current-law payroll for 2050, and thereafter increases more 

gradually, reaching 5.1 percent of current-law payroll for 2092. For 2020 and later, the proposal 

improves the annual balance (non-interest income minus program cost).

It is also useful to consider the projected cost, expenditures, and income for the OASDI program 

expressed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Figure 3 illustrates these levels 

under both current law and the proposal.

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

2018 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095

Percent of Current-Law Taxable Payroll

Figure 2. Proposal and Current Law Cost, Expenditures, and Non-Interest Income 

as Percent of Taxable Payroll: 2018 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Current Law Cost

Current Law Non-Interest Income

Current Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Non-Interest Income

Proposal Expenditures
Page 6 – The Honorable John Larson, Richard Blumenthal, and Chris Van Hollen

Specification for Provisions of the Proposal

Section 101. Increase the first PIA factor to 93 percent for all beneficiaries beginning in

2020.

This provision increases the first factor in the PIA formula from 90 to 93 percent for all benefits 

payable for months of eligibility January 2020 and later, including benefits for those becoming 

newly eligible both before and after January 2020.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.24 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2092) by 0.26 percent of payroll.

Section 102. Use the CPI-E increase rather than the CPI-W increase to calculate the COLA, 

effective for December 2019 and later COLAs.

Under current law, the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) applied to Social Security 

benefits is calculated using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical 

Workers (CPI-W). We estimate that using the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E)

increase rather than the CPI-W increase in each year beginning with the December 2019 COLA 

would increase the effective COLA by 0.2 percentage points per year on average.

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

2018 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085

Percent of GDP

Figure 3. Proposal and Current Law Cost, Expenditures, and Non-Interest Income 

as Percent of GDP: 2018 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Current Law Cost

Current Law Non-Interest Income

Current Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Non-Interest Income

Proposal Expenditures
Page 7 – The Honorable John Larson, Richard Blumenthal, and Chris Van Hollen

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.40 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2092) by 0.54 percent of payroll.

Section 103. Increase the special minimum PIA for workers who become newly eligible for 

retirement or disability benefits or die in 2020 or later.

Under this provision, the minimum initial PIA for workers becoming newly eligible or dying in 

2020 with 30 or more years of coverage (YOCs) would be 125 percent of the annual poverty 

guideline for a single individual published by the Department of Health and Human Services for 

2019, divided by 12. For those with less than 30 YOCs, the minimum PIA per YOC in excess of 

10 YOCs is the minimum PIA for workers with 30 or more YOCs, divided by 20. Any year in 

which a worker earns 4 quarters of coverage is determined to be a YOC. For workers becoming 

newly eligible or dying after 2020, the initial PIA per YOC in excess of 10 YOCs is indexed by 

growth in the national average wage index (AWI) to determine the minimum PIA applicable for 

the year of initial eligibility. After the year of initial eligibility, the minimum benefit is increased 

by the COLA for each cohort. The 30 and 10 YOC levels apply for all workers, including those 

who die or become disabled under age 62.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.12 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2092) by 0.17 percent of payroll.

Section 104. Replace the current-law thresholds for federal income taxation of OASDI 

benefits with a single set of thresholds at $50,000 for single filers and $100,000 for joint 

filers, for taxation of up to 85 percent of OASDI benefits, effective for tax years 2020 and 

later.

Under current law, single tax filers with combined “income” (approximately equal to adjusted 

gross income plus non-taxable interest income and one-half of their Social Security benefit) 

greater than $25,000 may have to pay income tax on up to 50 percent of their Social Security 

benefits. If combined “income” exceeds $34,000, up to 85 percent of benefits may be taxable.

The income tax revenue for taxing up to 50 percent of Social Security benefits is credited to the 

OASI and DI Trust Funds. The additional income tax revenue derived from taxing benefits in 

excess of 50 percent, up to 85 percent, is credited to the Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund. The 

process is similar for joint tax filers, with $32,000 and $44,000 thresholds applying for possible 

taxation of up to 50 percent or 85 percent of the Social Security benefits, respectively. All 

threshold levels are fixed amounts and not indexed to price inflation or average wage increase.

Under the proposal, both sets of the current-law thresholds would be replaced with a single set of 

thresholds, $50,000 and $100,000 for single and joint filers, respectively, for taxing up to 85 

percent of OASDI benefits, beginning for tax year 2020. These new thresholds would be

unchanged for tax years after 2020. The amount of revenue from taxation of OASDI benefits that 

would be allocated to the HI Trust Fund would be at the same level as if the current-law 

computation (in the absence of this provision) were applied. The net amount of revenue from 
Page 8 – The Honorable John Larson, Richard Blumenthal, and Chris Van Hollen

taxing OASDI benefits, after the allocation to HI, would be allocated to the combined Social 

Security Trust Fund.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.16 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2092) by 0.01 percent of payroll.

Section 201 and Section 202. Apply OASDI payroll tax rate on covered earnings above 

$400,000 paid in 2020 and later. Reflect additional earnings subject to tax in computing the 

PIA.

These provisions apply the OASDI payroll tax rate to covered earnings above $400,000 paid in 

2020 and later. The $400,000 level is a fixed amount after 2020 and not indexed to price 

inflation or average wage increase. All covered earnings would be taxed once the current-law 

taxable maximum exceeds $400,000, which is projected to occur in 2048. Any covered earnings 

above the higher of $400,000 or the current-law taxable maximum in a given year would be 

counted as “excess wages” and would be credited for benefit purposes by:

a. Calculating a second average indexed monthly earnings (“AIME+”) reflecting only 

additional earnings taxed under this provision,

b. Applying a 2-percent PIA factor to this newly computed “AIME+” to develop a second 

component of the PIA, and

c. Adding this second PIA component to the current-law PIA.

We estimate that enactment of these two provisions alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 1.90 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2092) by 2.35 percent of payroll.

Section 203. Increase the OASDI payroll tax rate to 14.8 percent, fully effective for 2043 and 

later. 

The increase in the OASDI payroll tax rate is phased in by increasing the payroll tax rate by 0.05 

percentage point for employers and 0.05 percentage point for employees (0.10 percentage point 

total), every year from 2020 through 2043. For years 2043 and later, the OASDI payroll tax rate 

is 7.4 percent for employers and 7.4 percent for employees (14.8 percent total), up from 6.2 

percent each (12.4 percent total) under current law.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 1.81 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2092) by 2.38 percent of payroll.

Section 204. Combine the separate OASI and DI Trust Funds effective in 2020.

Beginning in 2020, establish a new Social Security Trust Fund by combining the reserves of the 

separate OASI and DI Trust Funds and managing all future financial operations of the program 

on a combined basis. This provision alone would not change scheduled benefits or income in the 

law.
Page 9 – The Honorable John Larson, Richard Blumenthal, and Chris Van Hollen

Enactment of this provision alone would have a negligible effect (between -0.005 and 0.005 

percent of taxable payroll) on the long-range OASDI annual balance and on the annual deficit for 

the 75th projection year (2092).

Detailed Financial Results for the Provisions of the Proposal

Summary Results by Provision

Table A provides estimates of the effects on the OASDI long-range actuarial balance of the eight 

provisions of the proposal separately and on a combined basis. The table also includes estimates 

of the effect of the provisions on the annual balance (the difference between income rate and the 

cost rate, expressed as a percent of current-law taxable payroll) for the 75th projection year, 2092. 

Interaction among individual provisions is reflected only in the total estimates for the combined 

provisions.

Benefit Illustrations

Tables B1 and B2 provide illustrative examples of the projected change in benefit levels under 

the provisions of the proposal for beneficiaries retiring and starting benefit receipt at age 65 in 

future years at six selected earnings levels, with selected numbers of years of work. The 

“Maximum-AIME Steady Earner” is assumed to have earnings at ages 22 through 64 that equal 

the current-law taxable maximum level (equivalent to $128,400 for 2018) and the “Twice 

Maximum-AIME Steady Earner” is assumed to have earnings at ages 22 through 64 that equal 

twice the current-law taxable maximum level (equivalent to $256,800 for 2018). As a result, the 

provision to tax and credit earnings above the current-law taxable maximum affects only the 

“Twice Maximum-AIME Steady Earner” benefit level. Table B3 provides additional important 

information on characteristics of retired workers represented by these illustrations for the year 

2007.

The first several columns of Table B1 compare the initial scheduled benefit levels, assuming 

retirement at age 65 under the provisions of the proposal, to scheduled current-law benefit levels. 

All scheduled benefit amounts under the proposal are higher than those scheduled in current law, 

with the largest increases for the very-low and low hypothetical earners with at least 30 years of 

earnings (due largely to the minimum benefit provision). The final three columns of this table 

show the level of scheduled benefits under the proposal as a percentage of current-law scheduled 

benefits, the level of scheduled benefits under the proposal as a percentage of current-law 

payable benefits, and the level of payable benefits under the proposal as a percentage of currentlaw payable benefits, respectively.

Table B2 compares the change in scheduled benefit levels at ages 65, 75, 85, and 95 under the 

proposal to scheduled benefits under current law, assuming retirement and start of benefit receipt 

at age 65. Table B2 shows that projected scheduled benefits under the provisions of the proposal 

increase in relation to current-law scheduled benefits between ages 65 and 95, because of the 

change in computing the COLA.
Page 10 – The Honorable John Larson, Richard Blumenthal, and Chris Van Hollen

The hypothetical workers represented in these tables reflect average career-earnings patterns of 

workers who started receiving retirement benefits under the Social Security program in recent 

years. The tables subdivide workers with very-low, low, and medium career-average earnings 

levels by their numbers of years of non-zero earnings.

Table B3 provides information helpful in interpreting the benefit illustrations in Tables B1 and 

B2. Percentages in Table B3 are based on tabulations from a 10-percent sample of newly-entitled 

retired workers in 2007. Table B3 displays the percentages of these newly-entitled retired

workers in 2007 that are closest to each of the illustrative examples and are:

1) “Dually Entitled”, meaning they received a higher spouse or widow(er) benefit based on 

the career earnings of their husband or wife,

2) “WEP” (Windfall Elimination Provision), meaning that they received a reduced benefit 

due to having a pension based on earnings that were not covered under the OASDI 

program (primarily certain government workers), and they had less than 30 years of 

substantial earnings that were taxable under the OASDI program,

3) “Foreign Born”, meaning that they entered the Social Security coverage area after birth 

(and generally after entering working ages), and

4) “All Others”, meaning they had none of the three characteristics listed above.

The extent to which retired-worker beneficiaries represented by each of the illustrative examples 

have any of the characteristics listed above (dually entitled, WEP, foreign born) is important 

because such individuals are less dependent on the OASDI benefit that relates to their own 

career-average earnings level. It should be noted that the distributions shown in Table B3 for 

retirees in 2007 will be changing somewhat for beneficiaries becoming entitled as retired-worker 

beneficiaries in the future.

Payroll Tax Effects

Table T compares the scheduled payroll tax levels under the provisions of the proposal to 

scheduled current-law payroll tax levels. Under the proposal, the currently scheduled payroll tax 

rate of 12.4 percent would be gradually increased to 14.8 percent for 2043 and later. At that 

point, the amount of payroll tax paid by workers earning at the level of the current-law taxable 

maximum amount or below would be increased by 19.4 percent. Because the payroll tax would 

additionally apply to annual earnings in excess of $400,000 starting in 2020, payroll tax liability 

would increase by more than 19.4 percent for some workers earning over the higher of $400,000

and the current-law taxable maximum amount even before 2043. For example, Table T shows 

that the worker with earnings at twice the current-law taxable maximum in 2030 would have 

payroll tax liability increased by 17.7 percent. By 2050, workers with earnings at twice the 

current-law taxable maximum would have payroll tax liability increased by 138.7 percent.

Detailed Tables Containing Annual and Summary Projections

Enclosed with this letter are tables 1, 1a, 1b, 1b.n, 1c, and 1d, which provide annual and 

summary projections for the proposal.
Page 11 – The Honorable John Larson, Richard Blumenthal, and Chris Van Hollen

Trust Fund Operations

Table 1 provides projections of the financial operations of the OASDI program under the 

proposal and shows that the combined Social Security Trust Fund would be fully solvent 

throughout the 75-year projection period. The OASDI program would also be solvent for the

foreseeable future (sustainably solvent), because the trust fund ratio is projected to rise by the 

end of the period, 2093.

The table shows the annual cost and income rates, annual balances, and trust fund ratios 

(reserves as percent of annual program cost) for OASDI, as well as the change from current law 

in these cost rates, income rates, and annual balances. Included at the bottom of this table are 

summarized rates for the 75-year (long-range) period.

For 2020 and later, the proposal improves the annual balance (non-interest income minus 

program cost). The improvement in the annual balance increases from 0.5 percent of current-law 

payroll for 2020 to 4.1 percent for 2050, and thereafter increases slightly to 4.2 percent for 2092. 

Under the proposal, the annual deficit declines from 1.2 percent of current-law payroll for 2018

to 0.7 percent for 2021, generally increases to 1.2 percent for 2032, and then declines until the 

annual balance turns positive for 2043. The annual balance increases to 0.8 percent for 2052 and 

then declines steadily through 2073, at which point the annual balance becomes negative, 

ultimately reaching an annual deficit of 0.1 percent of current-law payroll for 2092. Under 

current law, the projected annual deficit for 2092 is 4.3 percent of payroll.

The actuarial balance for the OASDI program over the 75-year projection period is improved by 

3.10 percent of taxable payroll, from an actuarial deficit of 2.84 percent of payroll under current 

law to a positive actuarial balance of 0.25 percent of taxable payroll under the proposal.

Program Transfers and Trust Fund Reserves

Column 4 of Table 1a provides a projection of the level of reserves for the combined Social 

Security Trust Fund, assuming enactment of the eight Social Security provisions of the proposal. 

These trust fund reserve amounts are expressed in present value dollars discounted to January 1, 

2018. The table indicates that the provisions include no new specified transfers of general 

revenue to the combined Social Security Trust Fund. For purpose of comparison, the OASDI 

Trust Fund reserves, expressed in present value dollars, are also shown for the current-law Social 

Security program both without and with the added proposal general fund transfers (zero in this 

case) in columns 6 and 7.

Note that negative values in columns 6 and 7 represent the “unfunded obligation” for the 

program through the year. The unfunded obligation is the present value of the shortfall of 

revenue needed to pay full scheduled benefits on a timely basis from the date of trust fund 

reserve depletion through the end of the indicated year. Gross Domestic Product (GDP),

expressed in present value dollars, is shown in column 5 for comparison with other values in the 

table.
Page 12 – The Honorable John Larson, Richard Blumenthal, and Chris Van Hollen

Effect of the Social Security Provisions on the Federal Budget

Table 1b shows the projected effect, in present value discounted dollars, on the federal budget 

(unified-budget and on-budget) annual cash flows and balances, assuming enactment of the eight

Social Security provisions of the proposal. We note that section 105 of the Bill provides for 

“holding SSI, Medicaid, and CHIP beneficiaries harmless” from potential implications of the 

other sections in the Bill. Our analysis provided in these tables does not reflect the effects on 

these programs under the on-budget operations of the federal government. Table 1b.n provides 

the estimated nominal dollar effect of enactment of the proposal on annual budget balances for 

years 2018 through 2028. All values in these tables represent the amount of change from the 

level projected under current law. In addition, changes reflect the budget scoring convention that 

presumes benefits, not payable under the law after depletion of trust fund reserves, would still be 

paid using revenue provided from the General Fund of the Treasury. The reader should be 

cautioned that this presumption of payment of benefits beyond the resources of the trust funds is 

prohibited under current law and is also inconsistent with all past experience under the Social 

Security program.

Column 1 of Table 1b shows the added proposal general fund transfers (zero for this proposal).

Column 2 shows the net changes in OASDI cash flow from all provisions of the proposal.

We project the net effect of the proposal on unified budget cash flow (column 3) to be positive in 

years 2020 and later, primarily due to the payroll tax rate increase in provision 6 and the payroll 

tax newly applied to earnings above $400,000 in provision 5.

Column 4 of Table 1b indicates that the effect of implementing the proposal is a reduction of the 

theoretical federal debt held by the public, reaching about $15.3 trillion in present value at the 

end of the 75-year projection period. Column 5 provides the projected effect of the proposal on 

the annual unified budget balances, including both the cash flow effect in column 3 and the 

additional interest on the accumulated debt in column 4. Columns 6 and 7 indicate that the 

provisions of this proposal would have no expected direct effects on the on-budget cash flow, or 

on the total federal debt, in the future.

It is important to note that we base these estimates on the intermediate assumptions of the 2018

Trustees Report, so these estimates are not consistent with estimates made by the Office of 

Management and Budget or the Congressional Budget Office based on their assumptions. In 

particular, all present values are discounted using trust fund yield assumptions under the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.

Annual Trust Fund Operations as a Percent of GDP

Table 1c provides annual cost, annual expenditures (amount that would be payable), and annual 

tax income for the OASDI program expressed as a percentage of GDP for both current law and 

assuming enactment of the eight Social Security provisions of the proposal. Showing the annual 

trust fund cash flows as a percent of GDP provides an additional perspective on these trust fund 

operations in relation to the total value of goods and services produced in the United States. The 

relationship between income and cost is similar when expressed as a percent of GDP to that 

when expressed as a percent of taxable payroll (Table 1). Under this proposal, expenditures are 
Page 13 – The Honorable John Larson, Richard Blumenthal, and Chris Van Hollen

estimated to equal total cost for all projection years because proposal income is estimated to be 

sufficient to pay full scheduled benefits throughout the period.

Effects on Trust Fund Reserves and Unfunded Obligations

Table 1d provides estimates of the changes in trust fund reserves and unfunded obligations on an 

annual basis. Values in this table are expressed in present value dollars discounted to January 1, 

2018.

For the 75-year (long-range) period as a whole, the current-law unfunded obligation of $13.2

trillion is replaced by a positive trust fund reserve of $2.1 trillion in present value assuming 

enactment of the proposal. This change of $15.3 trillion results from:

• A $18.9 trillion net increase in revenue (column 2), primarily from additional payroll 

tax, minus

• A $3.7 trillion net increase in cost (column 3), primarily from the special minimum 

PIA provision, the change in computing the COLA, increases in current and future 

benefits from replacing the 90 percent factor in the PIA formula with 93 percent, and 

additional benefits from earnings taxed above the current-law taxable maximum.

We hope these estimates are helpful. Please let me know if we may provide further assistance.

Sincerely,

 Stephen C. Goss, ASA, MAAA

Chief Actuary

Enclosures
Table A—Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of the

“Social Security 2100 Act” (116th Congress), 

Introduced by Chairman Larson, Senator Blumenthal, and Senator Van Hollen

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

for 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

Section 101) Increase the first PIA formula factor from 90 

percent to 93 percent for all benefits payable for months of 

entitlement January 2020 and later, including benefits for 

those becoming newly eligible both before and after January 

2020 ........................................................................................... -0.24 -0.26

Section 102) Use the increase in the Consumer Price Index for 

the Elderly (CPI-E) rather than the increase in the Consumer 

Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers

(CPI-W) to calculate the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), 

effective for December 2019 and later COLAs. We estimate 

this new computation would increase the annual COLA by 

about 0.2 percentage point, on average ..................................... -0.40 -0.54

Section 103) Beginning in 2020, reconfigure the special 

minimum PIA for workers becoming newly eligible or dying

after 2019: (a) A year of coverage (YOC) is defined as a year

in which 4 quarters of coverage are earned. (b) For those 

becoming newly eligible or dying in 2020 with 30 or more 

YOCs, set the minimum PIA equal to 125 percent of the 2019

Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) monthly 

poverty level. For those with under 30 YOCs, the PIA per 

YOC in excess of 10 YOCs is 125 percent of this poverty level 

calculation, divided by 20. (c) For workers becoming newly 

eligible or dying after 2020, index the initial PIA per YOC by 

growth in the national average wage index (AWI). The 30 and 

10 YOC levels apply for all workers, including those who die 

or become disabled under age 62............................................... -0.12 -0.17

Section 104) Increase the thresholds for taxation of up to 85 

percent of OASDI benefits, to $50,000 for single filers and 

$100,000 for joint filers, effective for tax year 2020. These 

thresholds would be fixed and not indexed to price inflation or 

average wage increase. The amount of revenue from taxation 

of OASDI benefits that would be allocated to the HI Trust 

Fund would be the same as if the current-law computation (in 

the absence of this provision) applied. The net amount of 

revenue from taxing OASDI benefits, after the allocation to 

HI, would be allocated to the combined Social Security Trust 

Fund........................................................................................... -0.16 -0.01
Table A—Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of the

“Social Security 2100 Act” (116th Congress), 

Introduced by Chairman Larson, Senator Blumenthal, and Senator Van Hollen

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

for 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

Section 201 and Section 202) Apply the OASDI payroll tax 

rate on covered earnings above $400,000 paid in 2020 and 

later, and tax all covered earnings once the current-law taxable 

maximum exceeds $400,000. Credit the additional earnings 

taxed for benefit purposes by: (a) calculating a second average 

indexed monthly earnings (“AIME+”) reflecting only earnings 

taxed above the current-law taxable maximum, (b) applying a 

2 percent factor on this newly computed “AIME+” to develop 

a second component of the PIA, and (c) adding this second 

component to the current-law PIA............................................. 1.90 2.35

Section 203) Increase the combined OASDI payroll tax rate to 

14.8 percent, fully effective for 2043 and later. The combined 

rate is increased by 0.1 percentage point each year starting in 

2020, reaching the ultimate 14.8 percent rate for 2043 and 

later............................................................................................ 1.81 2.38

Section 204) Beginning in 2020, establish a new Social 

Security Trust Fund by combining the reserves of the separate 

OASI and DI Trust Funds and managing all future operations 

of the program on a combined basis.......................................... 3 3

Total for all provisions, including interaction.................... 3.10 4.19

1

Under current law, the estimated long-range OASDI actuarial balance is -2.84 percent of taxable payroll. 2

Under current law, the estimated 75th year annual balance is -4.32 percent of taxable payroll. 3

Negligible; that is, between -0.005 and 0.005 percent of taxable payroll. 

Notes: All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2018 OASDI Trustees Report. 

 Estimates of individual provisions appear on a stand-alone basis relative to current law, unless otherwise stated.

Social Security Administration

Office of the Chief Actuary

January 30, 2019
Proposal Proposal Proposal

Year Scheduled to Scheduled to Payable to

Attain Benefit Minimum Current Law Current Law Current Law

Age 65 (Wage-Indexed (CPI-Indexed COLA5 Formula6 Benefit7 Total8 Scheduled Payable Payable

2018 Dollars) 2018 Dollars)

 

2018 744 744 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100 100

2030 695 838 0.6 3.2 38.9 44.2 144 144 144

2050 700 1,074 0.6 3.2 38.9 44.2 144 182 182

2080 703 1,521 0.6 3.2 38.9 44.2 144 194 194

 

2018 744 744 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100 100

2030 695 838 0.6 3.2 0.0 3.8 104 104 104

2050 700 1,074 0.6 3.2 0.0 3.8 104 131 131

2080 703 1,521 0.6 3.2 0.0 3.8 104 139 139

 

2018 744 744 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100 100

2030 695 838 0.6 3.2 0.0 3.8 104 104 104

2050 700 1,074 0.6 3.2 0.0 3.8 104 131 131

2080 703 1,521 0.6 3.2 0.0 3.8 104 139 139

2018 974 974 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100 100

2030 910 1,098 0.6 2.4 6.9 10.1 110 110 110

2050 916 1,405 0.6 2.4 6.9 10.1 110 139 139

2080 920 1,990 0.6 2.4 6.9 10.2 110 148 148

2018 974 974 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100 100

2030 910 1,098 0.6 2.4 6.9 10.1 110 110 110

2050 916 1,405 0.6 2.4 6.9 10.1 110 139 139

2080 920 1,990 0.6 2.4 6.9 10.2 110 148 148

2018 974 974 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100 100

2030 910 1,098 0.6 2.4 0.0 3.0 103 103 103

2050 916 1,405 0.6 2.4 0.0 3.0 103 130 130

2080 920 1,990 0.6 2.4 0.0 3.0 103 138 138

2018 1,605 1,605 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100 100

2030 1,500 1,810 0.6 1.5 0.0 2.1 102 102 102

2050 1,510 2,317 0.6 1.5 0.0 2.1 102 129 129

2080 1,517 3,281 0.6 1.5 0.0 2.1 102 137 137

2018 1,605 1,605 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100 100

2030 1,500 1,810 0.6 1.5 0.0 2.1 102 102 102

2050 1,510 2,317 0.6 1.5 0.0 2.1 102 129 129

2080 1,517 3,281 0.6 1.5 0.0 2.1 102 137 137

2018 2,127 2,127 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100 100

2030 1,986 2,396 0.6 1.1 0.0 1.7 102 102 102

2050 1,999 3,068 0.6 1.1 0.0 1.7 102 129 129

2080 2,009 4,345 0.6 1.1 0.0 1.7 102 137 137

2018 2,590 2,590 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100 100

2030 2,430 2,932 0.6 0.9 0.0 1.5 102 102 102

2050 2,445 3,751 0.6 0.9 0.0 1.5 102 128 128

2080 2,449 5,296 0.6 0.9 0.0 1.5 102 136 136

2018 2,590 2,590 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100 100

2030 2,430 2,932 0.6 0.9 0.0 1.5 102 102 102

2050 2,445 3,751 0.6 3.4 0.0 4.0 104 132 132

2080 2,449 5,296 0.6 7.7 0.0 8.3 108 146 146

1

2 Projected percent of new retired worker awards in 2050 with current-law AIME levels and years of covered earnings closest to AIME levels and years of covered earnings shown.

3

4

5

6

7

8

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.

Table B1. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Beginning Benefit Receipt at age 65 

 "Social Security 2100 Act," Introduced by Chairman Larson, Senator Blumenthal, and Senator Van Hollen

Benefit Ratios

Scheduled Benefit Level Percent Change at age 65

Current Law Scheduled

 Medium-AIME ($51,894 for 20181) 30-Year Scaled Earner (2.2% of Retirees2)

Monthly Benefits4

(Percent change) (Percents)

 Very-Low-AIME ($12,974 for 20181) 30-Year Scaled Earner (10.1% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($12,974 for 20181

) 20-Year Scaled Earner (5.3% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($12,974 for 20181

) 14-Year Scaled Earner (4.1% of Retirees2

)

 Low-AIME ($23,353 for 20181) 44-Year Scaled Earner (17.1% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($23,353 for 20181) 30-Year Scaled Earner (4.4% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($23,353 for 20181) 20-Year Scaled Earner (1.7% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($51,894 for 20181) 44-Year Scaled Earner (28.6% of Retirees2)

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration January 30, 2019

 High-AIME ($83,031 for 20181) 44-Year Scaled Earner (19.1% of Retirees2)

 Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($128,400 for 20181) 43-Year Steady Earner (7.1% of Retirees2

)

 Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($256,800 for 20181) 43-Year Steady Earner3

Average of highest 35 years of taxable earnings wage indexed to 2018. For the Maximum and Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME workers, we show one times and two times the 2018 

taxable maximum, respectively.

If all earnings were considered, unlimited by annual taxable maximums, then about 1.5 percent of all retirees would have an AIME closer to Twice Maximum-Current-Law than MaximumCurrent-Law.

After the trust fund reserves deplete under current law continuing taxes are expected to be enough to pay about three fourths of scheduled benefits.

Starting Dec 2019, compute the COLA using a CPI-E, producing 0.2% higher annual COLAs on average.

For benefits payable beginning in 2020, increase the 90 percent PIA factor to 93 percent. Starting in 2020, apply the OASDI payroll tax rate on earnings above $400,000, and tax all 

earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $400,000. Credit the additional earnings for benefit purposes by: (a) calculating a second average indexed monthly earnings 

("AIME+") reflecting only earnings taxed above the current law taxable maximum, (b) applying a 2 percent factor on this newly computed "AIME+" to develop a second component of the 

PIA, and (c) adding this second component to the first PIA component.

For beneficiaries newly eligible in 2020, establish a minimum PIA level such that a worker with 30/10 years of coverage would receive a minimum PIA for 2020 of at least 125%/0% of the 

monthly poverty level for 2019. For beneficiaries newly eligible after 2020, the minimum PIA level for their initial year of eligibility would be adjusted for average wage growth. The 

minimum PIA is increased after the year of initial eligibility by the COLA. The Minimum Benefit Percent change is calculated after all other provisions, so that the Proposed Benefit 

Amount is at least the Minimum Benefit, where applicable.

This analysis reflects only the provisions of the proposal identified in the table and described in the footnotes above.
Year 

Attain

Age 65 Age 65 Age 75 Age 85 Age 95

2018 100.0 105.0 107.1 109.2

2030 144.2 147.0 149.9 152.8

2050 144.2 147.0 149.9 152.8

2080 144.2 147.0 149.9 152.8

2018 100.0 105.0 107.1 109.2

2030 103.8 105.8 107.9 110.0

2050 103.8 105.8 107.9 110.0

2080 103.8 105.8 107.9 110.0

2018 100.0 105.0 107.1 109.2

2030 103.8 105.8 107.9 110.0

2050 103.8 105.8 107.9 110.0

2080 103.8 105.8 107.9 110.0

2018 100.0 104.3 106.3 108.4

2030 110.1 112.3 114.5 116.8

2050 110.1 112.3 114.5 116.8

2080 110.2 112.3 114.5 116.8

2018 100.0 104.3 106.3 108.4

2030 110.1 112.3 114.5 116.8

2050 110.1 112.3 114.5 116.8

2080 110.2 112.3 114.5 116.8

2018 100.0 104.3 106.3 108.4

2030 103.0 105.1 107.1 109.2

2050 103.0 105.1 107.1 109.2

2080 103.0 105.1 107.1 109.2

2018 100.0 103.3 105.3 107.4

2030 102.1 104.1 106.1 108.2

2050 102.1 104.1 106.1 108.2

2080 102.1 104.1 106.1 108.2

2018 100.0 103.3 105.3 107.4

2030 102.1 104.1 106.1 108.2

2050 102.1 104.1 106.1 108.2

2080 102.1 104.1 106.1 108.2

2018 100.0 102.9 104.9 107.0

2030 101.7 103.7 105.7 107.8

2050 101.7 103.7 105.7 107.8

2080 101.7 103.7 105.7 107.8

2018 100.0 102.7 104.7 106.8

2030 101.5 103.5 105.5 107.6

2050 101.5 103.5 105.5 107.6

2080 101.5 103.5 105.5 107.6

2018 100.0 102.7 104.7 106.8

2030 101.5 103.5 105.5 107.6

2050 104.0 106.0 108.1 110.3

2080 108.3 110.5 112.6 114.9

1

2

3

Note: 

-

-

-

- This analysis reflects only the provisions of the proposal identified in the table and described above.

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.

 Very-Low-AIME ($12,974 for 20181) 20-Year Scaled Earner (5.3% of Retirees2)

Table B2. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Beginning Benefit Receipt at age 65 

"Social Security 2100 Act," Introduced by Chairman Larson, Senator Blumenthal, and Senator Van Hollen

Proposal Scheduled Benefit as Percent of Current Law Scheduled

(Percent)

 Very-Low-AIME ($12,974 for 20181) 30-Year Scaled Earner (10.1% of Retirees2)

If all earnings were considered, unlimited by annual taxable maximums, then about 1.5 percent of all retirees would have an AIME closer to Twice Maximum-Current-Law than 

Maximum-Current-Law.

 Very-Low-AIME ($12,974 for 20181

) 14-Year Scaled Earner (4.1% of Retirees2

)

 Low-AIME ($23,353 for 20181

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (17.1% of Retirees2

)

 Low-AIME ($23,353 for 20181

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (4.4% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($23,353 for 20181) 20-Year Scaled Earner (1.7% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($51,894 for 20181) 44-Year Scaled Earner (28.6% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($51,894 for 20181) 30-Year Scaled Earner (2.2% of Retirees2)

 High-AIME ($83,031 for 20181) 44-Year Scaled Earner (19.1% of Retirees2

)

 Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($128,400 for 20181) 43-Year Steady Earner (7.1% of Retirees2)

 Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($256,800 for 20181) 43-Year Steady Earner3

Average of highest 35 years of taxable earnings wage indexed to 2018. For the Maximum and Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME workers, we show one times and two times the 

2018 taxable maximum, respectively.

Projected percent of new retired worker awards in 2050 with current-law AIME levels and years of covered earnings closest to AIME levels and years of covered earnings shown.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration January 30, 2019

Starting Dec 2019, compute the COLA using a CPI-E, producing 0.2% higher annual COLAs on average.

For benefits payable beginning in 2020, increase the 90 percent PIA factor to 93 percent. Starting in 2020, apply the OASDI payroll tax rate on earnings above $400,000, and tax all 

earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $400,000. Credit the additional earnings for benefit purposes by: (a) calculating a second average indexed monthly earnings 

("AIME+") reflecting only earnings taxed above the current law taxable maximum, (b) applying a 2 percent factor on this newly computed "AIME+" to develop a second component 

of the PIA, and (c) adding this second component to the first PIA component.

For beneficiaries newly eligible in 2020, establish a minimum PIA level such that a worker with 30/10 years of coverage would receive a minimum PIA for 2020 of at least 125%/0% 

of the monthly poverty level for 2019. For beneficiaries newly eligible after 2020, the minimum PIA level for their initial year of eligibility would be adjusted for average wage 

growth. The minimum PIA is increased after the year of initial eligibility by the COLA.
Category Dually Entitled2 WEP3 Foreign Born All Others4

Very-Low-AIME ($10,101 for 20071

):

30-Year Scaled Earner (9.3% of Retirees) 47 6 11 40

20-Year Scaled Earner (5.8% of Retirees) 38 16 21 31

14-Year Scaled Earner (5.3% of Retirees) 22 21 45 20

Low-AIME ($18,182 for 20071):

44-Year Scaled Earner (13.1% of Retirees) 15 2 6 78

30-Year Scaled Earner (5.9% of Retirees) 16 9 18 59

20-Year Scaled Earner (3.1% of Retirees) 10 23 35 37

Medium-AIME ($40,405 for 20071):

44-Year Scaled Earner (23.0% of Retirees) 1 1 5 93

30-Year Scaled Earner (4.4% of Retirees) 1 8 26 67

High-AIME ($64,649 for 20071):

44-Year Scaled Earner (20.5% of Retirees) 0 0 6 93

Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($82,224 for 20071):

Steady Earner (9.4% of Retirees) 0 0 7 93

1

2

3 Covered by pension from government employment and are subject to the windfall elimination provision (WEP).

4 Neither foreign born, subject to WEP, or dually entitled.

March 21, 2017

Note 3: The sum of the percentages for each category (sum across rows) could be greater than 100 percent because some beneficiaries can be classified in more than one of 

the following groups: dually entitled, WEP, and foreign born. 

Average of highest 35 years of taxable earnings wage indexed to 2007.

Under current law, entitled to an additional benefit based on someone else's account. The dually entitled percent is a minimum value. Some beneficiaries that are not 

currently dually entitled could become dually entitled in the future.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration

Table B3. Important Characteristics of Hypothetical Workers in 2007

Percent of Beneficiaries Within Each Category That Are:

Note 1: Table B3 displays the percentages of these newly-entitled retired workers in 2007 that are closest to each of the illustrative examples.

Note 2: The percents in each category are based on tabulations of a 10-percent sample of newly entitled retired-worker beneficiaries in 2007 (169,725 records). We can be 95 

percent confident that each of the values shown above is within 1.4 percentage points of the value we would find using 100 percent of the retirees in 2007.
Proposal Scheduled Payroll Taxes

Earnings Payroll Taxable Percent of Current Law

in Year (Wage-Indexed (CPI-Indexed Tax Rate2 Maximum3 Total

2018 Dollars) 2018 Dollars) (Percents)

2018 134 134 0.0 0.0 0.0 100

2030 134 162 8.9 0.0 8.9 109

2050 134 206 19.4 0.0 19.4 119

2080 134 290 19.4 0.0 19.4 119

2018 241 241 0.0 0.0 0.0 100

2030 241 291 8.9 0.0 8.9 109

2050 241 370 19.4 0.0 19.4 119

2080 241 522 19.4 0.0 19.4 119

2018 536 536 0.0 0.0 0.0 100

2030 536 647 8.9 0.0 8.9 109

2050 536 823 19.4 0.0 19.4 119

2080 536 1,160 19.4 0.0 19.4 119

2018 858 858 0.0 0.0 0.0 100

2030 858 1,035 8.9 0.0 8.9 109

2050 858 1,316 19.4 0.0 19.4 119

2080 858 1,856 19.4 0.0 19.4 119

2018 1,327 1,327 0.0 0.0 0.0 100

2030 1,327 1,601 8.9 0.0 8.9 109

2050 1,327 2,036 19.4 0.0 19.4 119

2080 1,327 2,870 19.4 0.0 19.4 119

2018 1,327 1,327 0.0 0.0 0.0 100

2030 1,327 1,601 8.9 8.2 17.7 118

2050 1,327 2,036 19.4 100.0 138.7 239

2080 1,327 2,870 19.4 100.0 138.7 239

1

2

3 Apply the OASDI payroll tax rate on earnings above $400,000 starting in 2020, and tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $400,000.

This analysis reflects only the provisions of the proposal identified in the table and described in the footnotes above.

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.

99th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($256,800 in 2018) Twice Current-Law Maximum Earnings Level

Table T. Changes in Payroll Tax Contributions (Employee + Employer) for Workers with OASDI Covered Earnings in the Year

"Social Security 2100 Act," Introduced by Chairman Larson, Senator Blumenthal, and Senator Van Hollen

Scheduled Payroll Taxes Percent Change 

Current Law Scheduled

Monthly Total Payroll Taxes

(Percent change) 

26th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($12,974 in 2018)

40th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($23,353 in 2018)

69th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($51,894 in 2018)

85th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($83,031 in 2018)

94th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($128,400 in 2018) Current-Law Maximum Earnings Level

Percentile among all workers with any covered earnings in 2018 (including earnings both above and below the current-law maximum earnings level). We include those who will die or become disabled 

before reaching retirement age, and those who will not earn enough in their career to become fully insured for retired worker benefits. Thus, these percentiles are not directly comparable to the 

percentages in the B tables, which are based on lifetime earnings, and include only those who survive and become eligible for retirement benefits.

Increase the payroll tax rate by 0.1% each year from 2020 until it reaches 14.8% in 2043.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration January 30, 2019
Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

"Social Security 2100 Act," Introduced by Chairman Larson, Senator Blumenthal, and Senator Van Hollen

Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2018 13.81 12.64 -1.17 288 0.00 0.00 0.00

2019 13.95 12.87 -1.08 272 0.00 0.00 0.00

2020 14.37 13.59 -0.78 252 0.25 0.70 0.45

2021 14.55 13.81 -0.74 238 0.28 0.89 0.61

2022 14.75 13.98 -0.77 225 0.31 1.03 0.72

2023 14.97 14.14 -0.83 212 0.35 1.17 0.83

2024 15.19 14.31 -0.87 200 0.38 1.32 0.94

2025 15.40 14.47 -0.93 188 0.42 1.46 1.04

2026 15.61 14.68 -0.93 177 0.45 1.55 1.10

2027 15.85 14.85 -1.00 167 0.48 1.69 1.21

2028 16.10 15.02 -1.08 157 0.52 1.85 1.33

2029 16.34 15.19 -1.15 147 0.55 2.01 1.46

2030 16.56 15.37 -1.20 139 0.58 2.16 1.58

2031 16.77 15.54 -1.23 131 0.61 2.32 1.71

2032 16.95 15.71 -1.24 123 0.64 2.49 1.85

2033 17.12 15.89 -1.23 116 0.66 2.65 1.99

2034 17.25 16.06 -1.19 110 0.69 2.82 2.13

2035 17.36 16.24 -1.12 104 0.71 2.99 2.28

2036 17.45 16.42 -1.03 98 0.73 3.16 2.43

2037 17.53 16.60 -0.93 93 0.75 3.34 2.59

2038 17.59 16.78 -0.81 89 0.77 3.51 2.75

2039 17.61 16.97 -0.65 85 0.78 3.70 2.91

2040 17.62 17.15 -0.47 83 0.80 3.88 3.08

2041 17.62 17.34 -0.28 81 0.81 4.07 3.26

2042 17.59 17.53 -0.06 80 0.82 4.26 3.44

2043 17.56 17.73 0.17 81 0.83 4.46 3.63

2044 17.53 17.82 0.29 83 0.83 4.55 3.72

2045 17.50 17.92 0.42 86 0.84 4.65 3.81

2046 17.47 18.02 0.54 89 0.85 4.75 3.90

2047 17.45 18.12 0.66 94 0.85 4.85 4.00

2048 17.43 18.16 0.73 98 0.85 4.89 4.03

2049 17.41 18.17 0.76 104 0.86 4.90 4.04

2050 17.40 18.18 0.78 109 0.86 4.91 4.05

2051 17.40 18.19 0.79 115 0.86 4.92 4.06

2052 17.40 18.20 0.80 121 0.87 4.93 4.06

2053 17.41 18.21 0.80 126 0.87 4.94 4.07

2054 17.43 18.22 0.79 132 0.87 4.95 4.08

2055 17.46 18.23 0.77 138 0.87 4.95 4.08

2056 17.50 18.24 0.74 143 0.87 4.96 4.09

2057 17.54 18.25 0.71 149 0.87 4.97 4.09

2058 17.59 18.26 0.67 154 0.88 4.98 4.10

2059 17.64 18.27 0.63 159 0.88 4.98 4.10

2060 17.69 18.28 0.59 164 0.88 4.99 4.11

2061 17.74 18.29 0.55 169 0.88 5.00 4.11

2062 17.80 18.31 0.51 173 0.89 5.00 4.11

2063 17.85 18.31 0.46 178 0.89 5.01 4.12

2064 17.91 18.32 0.42 182 0.89 5.01 4.12

2065 17.96 18.33 0.37 186 0.90 5.02 4.12

2066 18.02 18.34 0.32 189 0.90 5.02 4.12

2067 18.09 18.35 0.27 193 0.90 5.03 4.13

2068 18.15 18.36 0.21 196 0.91 5.03 4.13

2069 18.21 18.37 0.16 199 0.91 5.04 4.13

2070 18.28 18.38 0.10 201 0.91 5.04 4.13

2071 18.33 18.39 0.05 203 0.91 5.05 4.13

2072 18.39 18.40 0.01 205 0.92 5.05 4.14

2073 18.43 18.40 -0.03 207 0.92 5.06 4.14

2074 18.47 18.41 -0.06 209 0.92 5.06 4.14

2075 18.51 18.42 -0.09 211 0.92 5.07 4.14

2076 18.53 18.42 -0.11 212 0.92 5.07 4.15

2077 18.55 18.43 -0.12 214 0.93 5.07 4.15

2078 18.55 18.43 -0.12 216 0.93 5.08 4.15

2079 18.54 18.44 -0.11 218 0.93 5.08 4.16

2080 18.53 18.44 -0.09 220 0.93 5.09 4.16

2081 18.51 18.44 -0.07 222 0.93 5.09 4.16

2082 18.50 18.45 -0.05 224 0.93 5.09 4.17

2083 18.48 18.45 -0.03 227 0.93 5.10 4.17

2084 18.46 18.45 -0.01 229 0.92 5.10 4.17

2085 18.45 18.45 0.00 232 0.92 5.10 4.18

2086 18.45 18.46 0.00 234 0.92 5.11 4.18

2087 18.46 18.46 0.00 237 0.92 5.11 4.18

2088 18.47 18.46 -0.01 240 0.93 5.11 4.19

2089 18.49 18.47 -0.03 242 0.93 5.12 4.19

2090 18.53 18.47 -0.05 244 0.93 5.12 4.19

2091 18.56 18.48 -0.09 246 0.93 5.12 4.19

2092 18.61 18.49 -0.12 248 0.93 5.12 4.19

2093 18.66 18.49 -0.17 250 0.93 5.13 4.19

Summarized Rates: OASDI Summarized Rates: OASDI

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

2018 - 2092 17.44% 17.70% 0.25% N/A 0.76% 3.85% 3.10%

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration 1

Under present law the year of combined Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034.

Year of reserve 

depletion1

Office of the Chief Actuary

January 30, 2019

Proposal Change from Current Law

Expressed as a percentage of current-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of current-law

taxable payroll
Table 1a - General Fund Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Reserves, and Theoretical OASDI Reserves

"Social Security 2100 Act," Introduced by Chairman Larson, Senator Blumenthal, and Senator Van Hollen

Percentage

of Payroll

Annual

Amounts

Accumulated as of 

End of Year

Gross Domestic 

Product

Without General

Fund Transfers

With Plan General

Fund Transfers

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,808.6 20,018.8 2,808.6 2,808.6

2019 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,730.2 20,372.8 2,730.2 2,730.2

2020 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,672.4 20,761.3 2,639.0 2,639.0

2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,616.6 21,143.5 2,536.5 2,536.5

2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,557.1 21,520.6 2,421.0 2,421.0

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,491.9 21,889.8 2,290.2 2,290.2

2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,421.7 22,247.7 2,144.3 2,144.3

2025 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,345.6 22,564.0 1,982.3 1,982.3

2026 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,268.7 22,843.8 1,813.8 1,813.8

2027 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,184.9 23,088.8 1,627.7 1,627.7

2028 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,094.1 23,261.7 1,423.5 1,423.5

2029 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,997.4 23,339.1 1,202.6 1,202.6

2030 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,896.7 23,329.3 967.1 967.1

2031 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,794.0 23,230.3 719.2 719.2

2032 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,691.5 23,048.1 461.5 461.5

2033 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,591.2 22,820.9 196.4 196.4

2034 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,495.4 22,590.1 -74.2 -74.2

2035 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,406.2 22,363.5 -348.2 -348.2

2036 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,325.0 22,135.9 -624.3 -624.3

2037 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,252.7 21,912.2 -901.6 -901.6

2038 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,191.2 21,693.9 -1,178.6 -1,178.6

2039 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,142.7 21,482.3 -1,453.2 -1,453.2

2040 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,108.1 21,271.2 -1,724.5 -1,724.5

2041 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,088.7 21,065.0 -1,991.5 -1,991.5

2042 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,085.6 20,868.9 -2,253.3 -2,253.3

2043 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,099.5 20,676.2 -2,509.6 -2,509.6

2044 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,122.7 20,486.7 -2,760.5 -2,760.5

2045 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,154.6 20,298.6 -3,006.5 -3,006.5

2046 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,195.2 20,110.8 -3,247.8 -3,247.8

2047 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,244.2 19,925.6 -3,484.9 -3,484.9

2048 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,297.2 19,744.9 -3,717.9 -3,717.9

2049 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,351.7 19,562.2 -3,947.2 -3,947.2

2050 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,407.1 19,380.3 -4,173.4 -4,173.4

2051 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,463.0 19,201.3 -4,396.7 -4,396.7

2052 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,519.0 19,022.2 -4,617.8 -4,617.8

2053 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,574.3 18,842.5 -4,837.3 -4,837.3

2054 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,628.5 18,661.7 -5,055.6 -5,055.6

2055 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,680.8 18,479.7 -5,273.3 -5,273.3

2056 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,730.9 18,298.9 -5,490.8 -5,490.8

2057 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,778.5 18,117.7 -5,708.5 -5,708.5

2058 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,823.1 17,935.7 -5,926.7 -5,926.7

2059 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,864.7 17,754.6 -6,145.3 -6,145.3

2060 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,903.3 17,574.0 -6,364.3 -6,364.3

2061 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,938.9 17,394.0 -6,583.8 -6,583.8

2062 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,971.4 17,215.1 -6,803.9 -6,803.9

2063 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,000.8 17,037.6 -7,024.4 -7,024.4

2064 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,027.1 16,861.5 -7,245.4 -7,245.4

2065 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,050.3 16,687.4 -7,466.8 -7,466.8

2066 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,070.3 16,515.3 -7,688.9 -7,688.9

2067 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,087.1 16,345.5 -7,911.6 -7,911.6

2068 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,100.6 16,178.3 -8,135.0 -8,135.0

2069 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,110.9 16,013.1 -8,359.1 -8,359.1

2070 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,118.0 15,850.3 -8,583.9 -8,583.9

2071 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,122.2 15,690.6 -8,809.1 -8,809.1

2072 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,124.1 15,534.1 -9,034.3 -9,034.3

2073 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,123.8 15,380.4 -9,259.4 -9,259.4

2074 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,121.6 15,229.4 -9,483.9 -9,483.9

2075 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,118.0 15,080.9 -9,707.7 -9,707.7

2076 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,113.4 14,934.6 -9,930.3 -9,930.3

2077 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,108.5 14,790.9 -10,151.0 -10,151.0

2078 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,103.6 14,649.3 -10,369.5 -10,369.5

2079 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,099.4 14,509.6 -10,585.3 -10,585.3

2080 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,096.0 14,371.5 -10,798.2 -10,798.2

2081 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,093.6 14,234.9 -11,008.1 -11,008.1

2082 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,092.2 14,099.1 -11,215.0 -11,215.0

2083 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,091.9 13,964.2 -11,418.8 -11,418.8

2084 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,092.3 13,830.0 -11,619.9 -11,619.9

2085 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,093.4 13,696.0 -11,818.5 -11,818.5

2086 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,094.7 13,562.2 -12,014.8 -12,014.8

2087 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,095.9 13,428.9 -12,209.2 -12,209.2

2088 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,096.6 13,295.7 -12,402.2 -12,402.2

2089 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,096.5 13,162.8 -12,594.0 -12,594.0

2090 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,095.2 13,030.4 -12,785.0 -12,785.0

2091 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,092.5 12,898.2 -12,975.4 -12,975.4

2092 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,088.0 12,766.5 -13,165.6 -13,165.6

2093 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,081.8 12,635.4 -13,355.5 -13,355.5

Total 2018-2092 0.0

Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.7%.

Office of the Chief Actuary 1

 Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption Social Security Administration

 that the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury. January 30, 2019

Calendar

Year

Proposal General Fund Transfers Present Value in Billions as of 1-1-2018

Proposal

Total OASDI

Trust Fund

Reserves

 at End of Year

Theoretical Social Security1

with Borrowing Authority

Present Value in Billions as of 1-1- 2018 Net OASDI Trust Fund Reserves at End of Year
Table 1b - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1

 (Present Value Dollars)

"Social Security 2100 Act," Introduced by Chairman Larson, Senator Blumenthal, and Senator Van Hollen

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End Of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2019 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2020 0.0 33.5 33.5 -33.5 33.5 0.0 0.0

2021 0.0 46.7 46.7 -80.1 47.6 0.0 0.0

2022 0.0 55.9 55.9 -136.1 58.2 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 65.6 65.6 -201.7 69.4 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 75.7 75.7 -277.4 81.6 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 85.9 85.9 -363.3 94.3 0.0 0.0

2026 0.0 91.7 91.7 -454.9 103.2 0.0 0.0

2027 0.0 102.3 102.3 -557.2 117.4 0.0 0.0

2028 0.0 113.4 113.4 -670.6 133.9 0.0 0.0

2029 0.0 124.3 124.3 -794.8 151.4 0.0 0.0

2030 0.0 134.8 134.8 -929.6 169.8 0.0 0.0

2031 0.0 145.2 145.2 -1,074.8 189.3 0.0 0.0

2032 0.0 155.2 155.2 -1,230.0 209.9 0.0 0.0

2033 0.0 164.9 164.9 -1,394.9 227.6 0.0 0.0

2034 0.0 174.7 174.7 -1,569.6 245.8 0.0 0.0

2035 0.0 184.8 184.8 -1,754.4 264.8 0.0 0.0

2036 0.0 194.9 194.9 -1,949.3 284.3 0.0 0.0

2037 0.0 205.1 205.1 -2,154.4 304.4 0.0 0.0

2038 0.0 215.4 215.4 -2,369.8 325.2 0.0 0.0

2039 0.0 226.1 226.1 -2,595.8 346.9 0.0 0.0

2040 0.0 236.7 236.7 -2,832.6 369.0 0.0 0.0

2041 0.0 247.6 247.6 -3,080.2 392.0 0.0 0.0

2042 0.0 258.8 258.8 -3,338.9 415.7 0.0 0.0

2043 0.0 270.1 270.1 -3,609.1 440.3 0.0 0.0

2044 0.0 274.1 274.1 -3,883.2 458.1 0.0 0.0

2045 0.0 277.9 277.9 -4,161.1 475.8 0.0 0.0

2046 0.0 281.9 281.9 -4,443.0 494.0 0.0 0.0

2047 0.0 286.1 286.1 -4,729.1 512.5 0.0 0.0

2048 0.0 286.0 286.0 -5,015.1 527.0 0.0 0.0

2049 0.0 283.8 283.8 -5,298.9 539.4 0.0 0.0

2050 0.0 281.5 281.5 -5,580.4 551.6 0.0 0.0

2051 0.0 279.3 279.3 -5,859.7 563.7 0.0 0.0

2052 0.0 277.1 277.1 -6,136.8 575.7 0.0 0.0

2053 0.0 274.8 274.8 -6,411.6 587.5 0.0 0.0

2054 0.0 272.5 272.5 -6,684.0 599.2 0.0 0.0

2055 0.0 270.1 270.1 -6,954.1 610.7 0.0 0.0

2056 0.0 267.7 267.7 -7,221.8 622.1 0.0 0.0

2057 0.0 265.2 265.2 -7,487.0 633.3 0.0 0.0

2058 0.0 262.7 262.7 -7,749.8 644.3 0.0 0.0

2059 0.0 260.2 260.2 -8,010.0 655.2 0.0 0.0

2060 0.0 257.7 257.7 -8,267.7 665.9 0.0 0.0

2061 0.0 255.1 255.1 -8,522.8 676.5 0.0 0.0

2062 0.0 252.5 252.5 -8,775.3 686.9 0.0 0.0

2063 0.0 249.9 249.9 -9,025.2 697.1 0.0 0.0

2064 0.0 247.3 247.3 -9,272.5 707.3 0.0 0.0

2065 0.0 244.7 244.7 -9,517.2 717.3 0.0 0.0

2066 0.0 242.1 242.1 -9,759.3 727.1 0.0 0.0

2067 0.0 239.5 239.5 -9,998.7 736.9 0.0 0.0

2068 0.0 236.9 236.9 -10,235.7 746.5 0.0 0.0

2069 0.0 234.4 234.4 -10,470.0 756.0 0.0 0.0

2070 0.0 231.9 231.9 -10,701.9 765.5 0.0 0.0

2071 0.0 229.4 229.4 -10,931.3 774.9 0.0 0.0

2072 0.0 227.1 227.1 -11,158.4 784.2 0.0 0.0

2073 0.0 224.7 224.7 -11,383.1 793.4 0.0 0.0

2074 0.0 222.4 222.4 -11,605.6 802.6 0.0 0.0

2075 0.0 220.2 220.2 -11,825.7 811.7 0.0 0.0

2076 0.0 218.0 218.0 -12,043.7 820.7 0.0 0.0

2077 0.0 215.8 215.8 -12,259.5 829.6 0.0 0.0

2078 0.0 213.6 213.6 -12,473.1 838.4 0.0 0.0

2079 0.0 211.6 211.6 -12,684.7 847.2 0.0 0.0

2080 0.0 209.5 209.5 -12,894.2 856.0 0.0 0.0

2081 0.0 207.5 207.5 -13,101.7 864.6 0.0 0.0

2082 0.0 205.5 205.5 -13,307.2 873.2 0.0 0.0

2083 0.0 203.5 203.5 -13,510.7 881.7 0.0 0.0

2084 0.0 201.5 201.5 -13,712.2 890.1 0.0 0.0

2085 0.0 199.6 199.6 -13,911.8 898.4 0.0 0.0

2086 0.0 197.6 197.6 -14,109.5 906.6 0.0 0.0

2087 0.0 195.7 195.7 -14,305.1 914.7 0.0 0.0

2088 0.0 193.7 193.7 -14,498.8 922.7 0.0 0.0

2089 0.0 191.7 191.7 -14,690.5 930.6 0.0 0.0

2090 0.0 189.7 189.7 -14,880.2 938.4 0.0 0.0

2091 0.0 187.7 187.7 -15,067.9 946.1 0.0 0.0

2092 0.0 185.7 185.7 -15,253.6 953.6 0.0 0.0

Total 2018-2092 0.0 15,253.6 15,253.6

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.7%.

Note: Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would Office of the Chief Actuary

 nonetheless be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. Social Security Administration 1

 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table.

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2018

January 30, 2019
Table 1b.n - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1

 (Nominal Dollars)

"Social Security 2100 Act," Introduced by Chairman Larson, Senator Blumenthal, and Senator Van Hollen

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2019 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2020 0.0 36.0 36.0 -36.5 36.5 0.0 0.0

2021 0.0 51.6 51.6 -89.8 53.4 0.0 0.0

2022 0.0 63.6 63.6 -157.0 67.1 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 76.7 76.7 -239.5 82.5 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 91.1 91.1 -339.5 100.0 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 106.5 106.5 -458.6 119.1 0.0 0.0

2026 0.0 117.3 117.3 -593.2 134.6 0.0 0.0

2027 0.0 135.2 135.2 -751.6 158.4 0.0 0.0

2028 0.0 155.4 155.4 -939.2 187.6 0.0 0.0

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.

Note: Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would Office of the Chief Actuary

 nonetheless be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. Social Security Administration 1

 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table.

Billions of Nominal Dollars

January 30, 2019
Table 1c - Current Law and Proposal Cost, Expenditures, and Income: As Percent of Gross Domestic Product

"Social Security 2100 Act," Introduced by Chairman Larson, Senator Blumenthal, and Senator Van Hollen

Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

2018 4.94 4.94 4.52 4.94 4.94 4.52

2019 4.99 4.99 4.61 4.99 4.99 4.61

2020 5.07 5.07 4.62 5.16 5.16 4.87

2021 5.14 5.14 4.65 5.24 5.24 4.97

2022 5.22 5.22 4.68 5.33 5.33 5.05

2023 5.30 5.30 4.70 5.43 5.43 5.13

2024 5.39 5.39 4.73 5.53 5.53 5.21

2025 5.47 5.47 4.75 5.62 5.62 5.28

2026 5.55 5.55 4.81 5.71 5.71 5.37

2027 5.63 5.63 4.82 5.80 5.80 5.44

2028 5.70 5.70 4.82 5.89 5.89 5.50

2029 5.77 5.77 4.82 5.97 5.97 5.55

2030 5.83 5.83 4.82 6.04 6.04 5.61

2031 5.89 5.89 4.81 6.11 6.11 5.66

2032 5.94 5.94 4.81 6.17 6.17 5.72

2033 5.98 5.98 4.81 6.22 6.22 5.77

2034 6.01 5.67 4.81 6.26 6.26 5.83

2035 6.03 4.80 4.80 6.29 6.29 5.89

2036 6.05 4.80 4.80 6.32 6.32 5.94

2037 6.07 4.80 4.80 6.34 6.34 6.00

2038 6.07 4.79 4.79 6.35 6.35 6.06

2039 6.07 4.79 4.79 6.35 6.35 6.12

2040 6.07 4.78 4.78 6.35 6.35 6.18

2041 6.05 4.78 4.78 6.34 6.34 6.25

2042 6.04 4.78 4.78 6.33 6.33 6.31

2043 6.02 4.77 4.77 6.31 6.31 6.37

2044 6.00 4.77 4.77 6.30 6.30 6.40

2045 5.98 4.76 4.76 6.28 6.28 6.43

2046 5.97 4.76 4.76 6.27 6.27 6.47

2047 5.95 4.76 4.76 6.26 6.26 6.50

2048 5.94 4.76 4.76 6.25 6.25 6.51

2049 5.93 4.75 4.75 6.24 6.24 6.51

2050 5.93 4.75 4.75 6.23 6.23 6.51

2051 5.92 4.75 4.75 6.23 6.23 6.51

2052 5.92 4.75 4.75 6.23 6.23 6.51

2053 5.92 4.75 4.75 6.23 6.23 6.51

2054 5.92 4.75 4.75 6.23 6.23 6.51

2055 5.93 4.74 4.74 6.24 6.24 6.51

2056 5.94 4.74 4.74 6.25 6.25 6.52

2057 5.95 4.74 4.74 6.26 6.26 6.52

2058 5.96 4.74 4.74 6.28 6.28 6.52

2059 5.98 4.74 4.74 6.29 6.29 6.52

2060 5.99 4.74 4.74 6.31 6.31 6.52

2061 6.01 4.74 4.74 6.32 6.32 6.52

2062 6.02 4.74 4.74 6.34 6.34 6.52

2063 6.03 4.73 4.73 6.35 6.35 6.51

2064 6.05 4.73 4.73 6.37 6.37 6.51

2065 6.06 4.73 4.73 6.38 6.38 6.51

2066 6.08 4.73 4.73 6.40 6.40 6.51

2067 6.09 4.72 4.72 6.41 6.41 6.51

2068 6.11 4.72 4.72 6.43 6.43 6.50

2069 6.12 4.72 4.72 6.44 6.44 6.50

2070 6.14 4.71 4.71 6.46 6.46 6.50

2071 6.15 4.71 4.71 6.47 6.47 6.49

2072 6.16 4.71 4.71 6.49 6.49 6.49

2073 6.17 4.70 4.70 6.50 6.50 6.49

2074 6.18 4.70 4.70 6.51 6.51 6.48

2075 6.19 4.70 4.70 6.51 6.51 6.48

2076 6.19 4.69 4.69 6.51 6.51 6.48

2077 6.19 4.69 4.69 6.51 6.51 6.47

2078 6.18 4.68 4.68 6.51 6.51 6.46

2079 6.17 4.68 4.68 6.50 6.50 6.46

2080 6.16 4.67 4.67 6.48 6.48 6.45

2081 6.15 4.67 4.67 6.47 6.47 6.45

2082 6.14 4.66 4.66 6.46 6.46 6.44

2083 6.12 4.66 4.66 6.45 6.45 6.44

2084 6.11 4.65 4.65 6.44 6.44 6.43

2085 6.10 4.65 4.65 6.43 6.43 6.43

2086 6.10 4.64 4.64 6.42 6.42 6.42

2087 6.09 4.64 4.64 6.42 6.42 6.42

2088 6.09 4.64 4.64 6.42 6.42 6.41

2089 6.10 4.63 4.63 6.42 6.42 6.41

2090 6.10 4.63 4.63 6.42 6.42 6.41

2091 6.11 4.63 4.63 6.43 6.43 6.40

2092 6.12 4.63 4.63 6.44 6.44 6.40

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Current Law OASDI Proposal OASDI

Calendar

Year

January 30, 2019
Table 1d - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Reserves / Unfunded Obligation

"Social Security 2100 Act," Introduced by Chairman Larson, Senator Blumenthal, and Senator Van Hollen

Year

Current Law OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Total Change

Through

End of Year

Proposal OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) = cumulative sum(4) (6) = (1)+(5)

2018 2,808.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,808.6

2019 2,730.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,730.2

2020 2,639.0 51.9 18.5 33.5 33.5 2,672.4

2021 2,536.5 68.0 21.4 46.7 80.1 2,616.6

2022 2,421.0 80.4 24.4 55.9 136.1 2,557.1

2023 2,290.2 93.2 27.6 65.6 201.7 2,491.9

2024 2,144.3 106.6 30.9 75.7 277.4 2,421.7

2025 1,982.3 120.1 34.2 85.9 363.3 2,345.6

2026 1,813.8 129.2 37.6 91.7 454.9 2,268.7

2027 1,627.7 143.1 40.9 102.3 557.2 2,184.9

2028 1,423.5 157.3 43.9 113.4 670.6 2,094.1

2029 1,202.6 171.0 46.8 124.3 794.8 1,997.4

2030 967.1 184.1 49.3 134.8 929.6 1,896.7

2031 719.2 196.7 51.5 145.2 1,074.8 1,794.0

2032 461.5 208.6 53.4 155.2 1,230.0 1,691.5

2033 196.4 219.9 55.0 164.9 1,394.9 1,591.2

2034 -74.2 231.1 56.3 174.7 1,569.6 1,495.4

2035 -348.2 242.3 57.5 184.8 1,754.4 1,406.2

2036 -624.3 253.4 58.5 194.9 1,949.3 1,325.0

2037 -901.6 264.5 59.4 205.1 2,154.4 1,252.7

2038 -1,178.6 275.5 60.1 215.4 2,369.8 1,191.2

2039 -1,453.2 286.7 60.6 226.1 2,595.8 1,142.7

2040 -1,724.5 297.8 61.0 236.7 2,832.6 1,108.1

2041 -1,991.5 308.9 61.3 247.6 3,080.2 1,088.7

2042 -2,253.3 320.2 61.4 258.8 3,338.9 1,085.6

2043 -2,509.6 331.6 61.5 270.1 3,609.1 1,099.5

2044 -2,760.5 335.5 61.4 274.1 3,883.2 1,122.7

2045 -3,006.5 339.2 61.3 277.9 4,161.1 1,154.6

2046 -3,247.8 343.0 61.1 281.9 4,443.0 1,195.2

2047 -3,484.9 346.9 60.8 286.1 4,729.1 1,244.2

2048 -3,717.9 346.5 60.5 286.0 5,015.1 1,297.2

2049 -3,947.2 344.0 60.2 283.8 5,298.9 1,351.7

2050 -4,173.4 341.3 59.8 281.5 5,580.4 1,407.1

2051 -4,396.7 338.6 59.3 279.3 5,859.7 1,463.0

2052 -4,617.8 336.0 58.9 277.1 6,136.8 1,519.0

2053 -4,837.3 333.2 58.5 274.8 6,411.6 1,574.3

2054 -5,055.6 330.5 58.0 272.5 6,684.0 1,628.5

2055 -5,273.3 327.6 57.5 270.1 6,954.1 1,680.8

2056 -5,490.8 324.7 57.1 267.7 7,221.8 1,730.9

2057 -5,708.5 321.8 56.6 265.2 7,487.0 1,778.5

2058 -5,926.7 318.9 56.2 262.7 7,749.8 1,823.1

2059 -6,145.3 315.9 55.7 260.2 8,010.0 1,864.7

2060 -6,364.3 312.9 55.3 257.7 8,267.7 1,903.3

2061 -6,583.8 309.9 54.8 255.1 8,522.8 1,938.9

2062 -6,803.9 306.9 54.4 252.5 8,775.3 1,971.4

2063 -7,024.4 303.9 54.0 249.9 9,025.2 2,000.8

2064 -7,245.4 300.9 53.5 247.3 9,272.5 2,027.1

2065 -7,466.8 297.8 53.1 244.7 9,517.2 2,050.3

2066 -7,688.9 294.8 52.7 242.1 9,759.3 2,070.3

2067 -7,911.6 291.8 52.3 239.5 9,998.7 2,087.1

2068 -8,135.0 288.8 51.9 236.9 10,235.7 2,100.6

2069 -8,359.1 285.9 51.5 234.4 10,470.0 2,110.9

2070 -8,583.9 283.0 51.1 231.9 10,701.9 2,118.0

2071 -8,809.1 280.1 50.7 229.4 10,931.3 2,122.2

2072 -9,034.3 277.3 50.3 227.1 11,158.4 2,124.1

2073 -9,259.4 274.6 49.8 224.7 11,383.1 2,123.8

2074 -9,483.9 271.8 49.4 222.4 11,605.6 2,121.6

2075 -9,707.7 269.1 49.0 220.2 11,825.7 2,118.0

2076 -9,930.3 266.5 48.5 218.0 12,043.7 2,113.4

2077 -10,151.0 263.8 48.0 215.8 12,259.5 2,108.5

2078 -10,369.5 261.2 47.6 213.6 12,473.1 2,103.6

2079 -10,585.3 258.6 47.1 211.6 12,684.7 2,099.4

2080 -10,798.2 256.1 46.6 209.5 12,894.2 2,096.0

2081 -11,008.1 253.6 46.1 207.5 13,101.7 2,093.6

2082 -11,215.0 251.1 45.6 205.5 13,307.2 2,092.2

2083 -11,418.8 248.6 45.1 203.5 13,510.7 2,091.9

2084 -11,619.9 246.1 44.6 201.5 13,712.2 2,092.3

2085 -11,818.5 243.7 44.1 199.6 13,911.8 2,093.4

2086 -12,014.8 241.3 43.6 197.6 14,109.5 2,094.7

2087 -12,209.2 238.8 43.2 195.7 14,305.1 2,095.9

2088 -12,402.2 236.4 42.7 193.7 14,498.8 2,096.6

2089 -12,594.0 234.0 42.3 191.7 14,690.5 2,096.5

2090 -12,785.0 231.6 41.9 189.7 14,880.2 2,095.2

2091 -12,975.4 229.2 41.5 187.7 15,067.9 2,092.5

2092 -13,165.6 226.8 41.2 185.7 15,253.6 2,088.0

Total 2018-2092 18922.9 3669.3 15253.6

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.7%. January 30, 2019

(Billions of Dollars, Present Value on 1-1-2018)