SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE, MD 21235-0001

Office of the Chief Actuary

June 9, 2016 

Mr. Kent Conrad, Co-Chair

Mr. James B. Lockhart, III, Co-Chair

Commission on Retirement Security and Personal Savings 

Bipartisan Policy Center

1225 Eye Street NW, Suite 1000 

Washington, D.C. 20005 

Dear Mr. Conrad and Mr. Lockhart: 

I am writing in response to your request for estimates of the financial effects on Social Security 

of the plan released today by the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Commission on Retirement Security 

and Personal Savings. The estimates provided here reflect the intermediate assumptions of the 

2015 Trustees Report. The Commission’s plan includes twelve provisions with direct effects on 

the Social Security Trust Funds. Note that the estimates provided here do not reflect the 

estimated effects of the Bipartisan Budget Act (BBA) of 2015, which was enacted after 

completion of the 2015 Trustees Report. Including the effects of the BBA would provide a small 

further improvement in the projected actuarial status of the Social Security Trust Funds. We have 

enjoyed working closely with Shai Akabas, Brian Collins, and other members of your team in 

developing this plan to meet your goals. The estimates and analysis provided here reflect the 

combined effort of many in the Office of the Chief Actuary, but most particularly Karen Glenn, 

Christopher Chaplain, Daniel Nickerson, Kyle Burkhalter, Michael Clingman, Anna Kirjusina, 

Katie Sutton, and Tiffany Bosley. 

The enclosed tables provide estimates of the effects of the Commission’s plan on the cost, 

income, and combined trust fund reserves for the Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance 

(OASDI) program, as well as estimated effects on retired worker benefit levels for selected 

hypothetical workers. In addition, tables 1b and 1b.n provide estimates of the federal budget 

implications of the twelve provisions. Assuming enactment of the plan, we estimate that the 

combined OASI and DI Trust Funds would be fully solvent throughout the 75-year projection 

period, under the intermediate assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report. In addition, under this 

plan the OASDI program would meet the further conditions for sustainable solvency, because 

projected combined trust fund reserves would be growing as a percentage of the annual cost of 

the program at the end of the long-range period. 

Because the OASI and DI Trust Funds are separate legal entities, estimates for the combined 

trust funds are consistent with an intent to reallocate the total payroll tax rate as needed to 

equalize the years of reserve depletion and the actuarial status of the two separate trust funds. 

SOCIAL SECURITY
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Such reallocations would be needed under this plan beyond the temporary reallocation enacted in 

the BBA of 2015.

The Commission’s plan includes twelve basic provisions with direct effects on the OASDI 

program. The following list provides a brief description of these provisions.

1) Use an annualized “mini-PIA” formula beginning with retired worker beneficiaries 

becoming newly eligible in 2022, phased in over 5 years. The mini-PIA calculation 

would compute an individual average monthly indexed earnings (mini-AIME) and 

primary insurance amount (mini-PIA) for each year with taxable earnings.

2) Replace the current-law Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and Government 

Pension Offset (GPO) for most OASI benefits with a new calculation based on covered 

and non-covered earnings, beginning with individuals newly eligible in 2022.

3) Limit the spousal benefit paid on the account of a retired worker newly eligible in 2022 

to the benefit received by the spouse of a newly-eligible retired worker with AIME at 

the 75th percentile.

4) Compute retired worker and spouse benefits for those married when first starting 

benefits in 2022 or later using a specified joint-and-survivor annuity approach.

5) Beginning with retired worker beneficiaries newly eligible in 2022, add a new PIA bend 

point at the wage-indexed equivalent of the 50th percentile of the AIME distribution for 

retired workers newly eligible in 2015, minus $100. In addition, change the present-law 

first PIA bend point on a wage-indexed equivalent basis from $826 to $1,050 for 2015 

and apply more progressive PIA factors.

6) Increase the OASDI taxable maximum by equal amounts over four years starting in 

2017, reaching $195,000 for 2020, and index by growth in the average wage index 

(AWI) plus 0.5 percentage point annually thereafter. Additional earnings taxed are 

includable for AIME computations.

7) Increase the total OASDI payroll tax rate by 0.1 percentage point per year for 2017 

through 2026, increasing the total rate from 12.4 percent for 2016 to 13.4 percent for 

2026 and later.

8) After the normal retirement age (NRA) reaches age 67 for those attaining age 62 in 

2022, increase it by 1 month every 2 years until the NRA reaches 69 for those attaining 

age 62 in 2070. Also increase the age up to which delayed retirement credits may be 

earned from 70 to 72 on the same schedule.

9) Use the chain-weighted version of the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers 

(C-CPI-U) to calculate the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), beginning with the 

December 2016 COLA.

10)Beginning in 2017, extend student benefits to age 22 for children of disabled or 

deceased workers, if the child is a full-time student in high school or below, college, or 

vocational school.

11)Beginning in 2022, for single/head-of-household/married-filing-separate taxpayers with 

modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) of $250,000 or more and for joint filers with 

MAGI of $500,000 or more, include up to 100 percent of Social Security benefits (up 

from 85 percent) in income subject to federal personal income tax. All additional 

revenue would be credited to the OASI and DI Trust Funds.
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12)Beginning in 2020, create a new Social Security Basic Minimum Benefit (BMB). This 

new minimum benefit would be available only after attaining NRA and would be set at 

different levels for single persons and married couples. Individuals with adjusted gross 

income (AGI) above specified thresholds would have the BMB reduced or completely 

eliminated.

The balance of this letter provides a summary of the effects of the Commission’s plan on the 

actuarial status of the OASDI program, our understanding of the specifications and intent of each 

of the twelve provisions, and descriptions of our detailed financial estimates for trust fund 

operations, benefit levels, and implications for the federal budget. See the “Specification for 

Provisions of the Proposal” section of this letter for a detailed description of these twelve 

provisions.

Summary of Effects of the Plan on OASDI Actuarial Status

Figure 1 below illustrates the estimated trust fund ratio under present law and assuming 

enactment of the Commission’s plan. The trust fund ratio is defined as the combined Old-Age 

and Survivors Insurance (OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund reserves expressed as 

a percent of annual program cost. Assuming enactment of the plan, the combined OASI and DI 

Trust Funds would be fully solvent throughout the 75-year projection period, under the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report. In addition, because the projected trust 

fund ratio is increasing at the end of the period, the plan meets the conditions for sustainable 

solvency.
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Note: Trust Fund Ratio for a given year is the ratio of reserves in the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds at the 

beginning of the year to the cost of the program for the year.

Under current law, 79 percent of scheduled benefits are projected to be payable on a timely basis 

in 2034 after depletion of the combined trust fund reserves, with the percentage payable 

declining to 73 percent for 2089. Under the plan, the OASDI program would be solvent 

throughout the 75-year projection period, and would have the ability to pay 100 percent of 

scheduled benefits on a timely basis for the foreseeable future.

Enactment of the twelve provisions of the Commission’s plan would change the long-range 

OASDI actuarial deficit from 2.68 percent of taxable payroll under current law to a positive 

actuarial balance of 0.13 percent of payroll under the plan.

Figure 2 illustrates annual projected levels of cost, expenditures, and non-interest income as a 

percent of the current-law taxable payroll. The projected level of cost reflects the full cost of 

scheduled benefits under both current law and the plan. Under the plan, projected expenditures 

equal the full cost of scheduled benefits throughout the long-range period.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 Trust Fund Ratio

Figure 1. Present Law and Proposal OASDI Trust Fund Reserves as Percent of 

Annual Cost: 2015 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Present Law Trust Fund Ratio

Proposal
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From 2017 through 2021, OASDI program cost under the plan is very close to the cost under 

current law. Starting in 2022, OASDI program annual cost under the plan becomes progressively 

lower than under current law. This difference increases rapidly through about 2040, and then 

increases gradually, reaching about 2.5 percent of current-law payroll by 2089. Beginning in 

2017, non-interest income under the plan is projected to be higher than under current law, with 

the difference growing rapidly from 0.3 percent of current-law payroll for 2017 to 1.5 percent of 

current-law payroll for 2026, and then increasing gradually to 1.9 percent of current-law payroll 

for 2089. The plan improves the annual balance (non-interest income minus program cost) 

starting in 2017. The annual balance improves by 2.7 percent of payroll for 2034, with the 

improvement increasing to 4.3 percent of payroll for 2089. However, under the plan, the annual 

balance is still negative throughout the long-range period. The annual deficit decreases from 1.3 

percent of payroll for 2015 to 0.4 percent of payroll for 2019 and then fluctuates through the end 

of the long-range period, ultimately reaching 0.3 percent of payroll for 2089. Under current law, 

the projected annual deficit for 2089 is 4.7 percent of payroll.

On a present value basis over the 75-year projection period, about 54 percent of the improvement 

in the actuarial balance comes from increases in revenues (payroll taxes and taxation of benefits), 

and about 46 percent comes from reductions in cost. By comparison, for the 75th projection year 

(2089), about 43 percent of the improvement in annual balance comes from revenue increases, 

and about 57 percent of the improvement comes from reduction in cost.

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 Percent of Present-Law Taxable Payroll

Figure 2. Proposal and Present Law Cost, Expenditures, and Non-Interest Income 

as Percent of Taxable Payroll: 2015 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Present Law Cost

Present Law Non-Interest Income

Present Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Non-Interest Income

Proposal Expenditures
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It is also useful to consider the projected cost, expenditures, and income for the OASDI program 

expressed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Figure 3 below illustrates these 

levels under both current law and the plan.

Specification for Provisions of the Proposal

1) Use an annualized “mini-PIA” beginning with retired workers newly eligible in 2022.

For each of a retired worker’s years of indexed earnings, compute an individual “mini-AIME”

and an individual “mini-PIA.” The applicable PIA under this provision would be the sum of the 

40 highest individual mini-PIAs divided by 37. This provision would be phased in over five 

years, meaning that the benefit for retired workers becoming newly eligible in 2022 would equal 

80 percent of the current-law PIA formula benefit plus 20 percent of the new mini-PIA-formula 

benefit, shifting proportions by 20 percentage points each year until the benefit is 100 percent 

based on the new mini-PIA formula for those attaining age 62 in 2026 and later. Benefits for 

disabled workers would be computed under the old PIA formula, and would not be changed for 

disabled workers converting to retired worker status at NRA.

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 Percent of GDP

Figure 3. Proposal and Present Law Cost, Expenditures, and Non-Interest Income 

as Percent of GDP: 2015 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Present Law Cost

Present Law Non-Interest Income

Present Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Non-Interest Income

Proposal Expenditures
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We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.28 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2089) by 0.46 percent of payroll.

2) For most OASI benefits, replace the current Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and 

Government Pension Offset (GPO) with a new calculation based on covered and noncovered earnings, beginning with individuals newly eligible in 2022.

Under this provision, the current Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and Government 

Pension Offset (GPO) as applied for OASI benefits would be replaced with the approach 

proposed in the President’s FY2017 Budget. The WEP replacement involves three components: 

(1) a “Super AIME” computed considering all earnings in Social Security Administration records 

(both OASDI covered and non-covered) up to the annual taxable maximum for each year, (2) a 

“Super PIA” based on the “Super AIME,” and (3) the “Covered” AIME based only on OASDI 

covered earnings. The governing PIA for a worker (also applicable for his or her auxiliary 

beneficiaries) is then calculated as the Covered AIME multiplied by the ratio of the Super PIA to 

the Super AIME. The new computation will be effective for all payments on the record of a 

retired worker beneficiary becoming newly eligible for benefits on or after January 1, 2022. As 

under current law, upon the death of the worker, the governing PIA will revert to the standard 

PIA based solely on covered earnings.

For the GPO replacement, three components are used in the computation: (1) a “Super PIA” 

computed using both OASDI covered and non-covered earnings, (2) a standard PIA (“Covered 

PIA”) based only on OASDI covered earnings, and (3) an age reduction factor. Each component 

is calculated using the beneficiary’s own earnings record, without regard to insured status, as if 

entitlement to worker benefits begins at the same time as application of the offset. The new 

offset amount will be the difference between the Super PIA and Covered PIA, multiplied by the 

age reduction factor, if applicable. If the beneficiary is dually entitled, the offset will be deducted 

from the excess benefit payable as a spouse. The new offset will apply to benefits paid to a 

spouse, former spouse, or surviving spouse of an insured worker when the spouse is age 62 and 

older. The provision is effective for those attaining age 62 on or after January 1, 2022.

The new WEP and GPO formulas would not be applied for (1) DI benefits, (2) retired worker

benefits after the conversion from disabled worker status at NRA, or (3) survivor benefits 

payable upon the death of a disabled worker.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.08 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2089) by 0.12 percent of payroll.

3) Limit the spousal benefit to that received by the spouse of the 75th-percentile worker

beginning with retired workers newly eligible in 2022.

For this provision, the “75th-percentile worker” is a retired worker newly eligible (age 62) in a 

given year who has an AIME at the 75th percentile among all individuals attaining 62 in the year 

who are eligible for a retired worker benefit. For spouse benefits based on the accounts of retired 

workers newly eligible after 2022, the threshold used for those newly eligible in 2022 would be 
Page 8 – Bipartisan Policy Center

indexed by changes in the Chained Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U).

This provision affects divorced spouses and young spouses as well as aged spouses of retired 

workers, but not spouses of disabled workers, including after the disabled worker converts to 

retired worker status when attaining NRA.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.11 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2089) by 0.24 percent of payroll.

4) Compute benefits on a joint-and-survivor annuity basis beginning with retired workers 

and spouses newly eligible in 2022.

For individuals attaining age 62 in 2022 and later who are married at the time they first become 

entitled to either a retired worker benefit or an aged spouse benefit (on a retired worker's 

account), benefits would be reduced while both spouses are alive to allow for increased survivor 

benefits, such that the expected present value of total benefits would be unchanged on a cohort 

basis. For those affected, the surviving spouse would receive 75 percent of the decedent’s benefit 

plus whatever his or her own benefit would be if both individuals in the couple were still alive.

Because survivors of couples affected by this provision would receive higher benefits than under 

current law, this provision would also reduce the retired worker and aged spouse benefit such 

that, on a cohort basis, the expected amount of benefits paid from the worker’s account (with all 

of the plan’s provisions incorporated) would be actuarially equivalent in present value to the 

expected amount under current law.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.06 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2089) by 0.14 percent of payroll.

5) Beginning with retired workers newly eligible in 2022, revise the PIA benefit formula.

This provision would add a new bend point that would fall between the two current-law PIA 

bend points. The new bend point would be calculated as would be applicable for new eligibility 

in 2015 at the AIME level of retired workers newly eligible in 2015, minus $100. This new bend 

point would be indexed by the average wage indexing series up to the year of first application, 

new eligibility in 2022, and for all subsequent years. In addition, this provision would move the 

current-law first bend point starting for those newly eligible in 2022 from the wage-indexed 

equivalent of $826 in 2015 to the wage-indexed equivalent of $1,050 in 2015. The current PIA 

factors of 90 percent, 32 percent, and 15 percent would be changed to 95 percent, 32 percent 

(above the revised current-law first bend point and below the new bend point), 15 percent (above 

the new bend point and below the current-law second bend point), and 5 percent.

This change would be phased in over 10 years, from 2022 through 2031, on a weighted-average 

basis. That is, the PIA would be calculated as 90 percent of the current-law formula plus 10

percent of the plan formula for 2022, 80 percent of the current-law formula plus 20 percent of the 

plan formula for 2023, and so on. Disabled workers newly eligible in all future years would 
Page 9 – Bipartisan Policy Center

retain the current PIA formula computation (benefits both before and after conversion to retired 

worker benefit status at NRA).

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.05 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2089) by 0.10 percent of payroll.

6) Increase the OASDI taxable maximum by equal amounts over four years starting in 2017, 

reaching $195,000 for 2020 and increase indexing thereafter.

Under current law, payroll taxes totaling 12.4 percent apply to OASDI covered earnings in a year 

up to the contribution and benefit base, or taxable maximum. This taxable maximum is $118,500 

for 2015 and increases in the future with increases in the national average wage index (AWI). All 

covered earnings subject to the payroll tax are credited toward computation of benefits as well as 

attainment of insured status.

Under this provision, the taxable maximum would increase linearly from 2017 through 2020 

until it equals $195,000 in 2020. After 2020, the taxable maximum would be indexed to the 

annual percentage increase in the AWI plus 0.5 percentage point, a higher rate of increase than 

under current law. Additional earnings taxed would be includable in the AIME computation for 

benefit credit.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.53 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2089) by 0.60 percent of payroll.

7) Increase the OASDI payroll tax rate by 0.1 percentage point per year from 2017 through 

2026 so that it equals 13.4 percent in years 2026 and later.

The payroll tax rate increase would be split evenly between the employer and employee share, 

and would be split between the OASI and DI Trust Funds in proportion to currently scheduled 

payroll tax rates.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.87 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2089) by 1.00 percent of payroll.

8) After the NRA reaches age 67 for those aged 62 in 2022, increase it by 1 month every 2 

years until the NRA reaches 69.

Under current law, the NRA will increase from age 66 by 2 months per year for individuals 

attaining age 62 in 2017 through 2022, reaching the NRA of 67 for those aged 62 in 2022 and 

later. Under this provision, the NRA would, after 2022, increase by 1 month every 2 years until it 

equals 69 for those attaining age 62 in 2070 and later. Also, the maximum age for accumulating 

delayed retirement credits would increase at the same rate, ultimately reaching 72 for those 
Page 10 – Bipartisan Policy Center

attaining 62 in 2070. This provision retains the earliest eligibility age for retired worker benefits 

at 62.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.47 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2089) by 1.36 percent of payroll.

9) Use the chain-weighted version of the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers 

(C-CPI-U) to calculate the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), beginning with the 

December 2016 COLA.

Under current law, the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) applied to Social Security 

benefits is calculated using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical 

Workers (CPI-W). We assume this change to the C-CPI-U would decrease the COLA by an 

average of 0.3 percentage point per year. The new COLA would apply only to benefits paid from 

the OASI Trust Fund, including benefits to DI beneficiaries after they convert to retired worker 

status at normal retirement age.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.46 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2089) by 0.62 percent of payroll.

10) Beginning in 2017, extend student benefits to age 22 for children of disabled or deceased 

workers, if the child is a full-time student in high school, college, or vocational school.

Under current law, child benefits can be paid after attaining age 18 until attainment of age 19, if 

the child is a full-time attendee at secondary school or below. This provision would extend 

payment of student benefits up to attainment of age 22 for children of disabled or deceased 

workers, if the child is a full-time student in high school or below, college, or vocational school.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.06 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2089) by 0.06 percent of payroll.

11) Beginning in 2022, for single/head-of-household/married-filing-separate taxpayers with 

modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) of $250,000 or more and for joint filers with 

MAGI of $500,000 or more, include up to 100% of Social Security benefits in taxable 

income.

Under current law, single tax filers with MAGI (approximately equal to adjusted gross income

(AGI), plus non-taxable interest income and half of their Social Security benefit) greater than 

$25,000 may have to pay income tax on up to 50 percent of their Social Security benefits. If 

MAGI exceeds $34,000, up to 85 percent of benefits may be taxable. The income tax revenue 

from taxing up to 50 percent of Social Security benefits goes to the OASI and DI Trust Funds. 

The additional income tax revenue derived from taxing more than 50 percent of benefits, up to 

85 percent, goes to the Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund. The process is similar for joint tax 
Page 11 – Bipartisan Policy Center

filers, with $32,000 and $44,000 thresholds applying for possible taxation of up to 50 percent or 

85 percent of the Social Security benefits, respectively. All threshold levels are fixed amounts 

and are not indexed to price inflation or average wage increases.

This provision would add an additional level of benefit taxation on the remaining 15 percent of

Social Security benefits for taxpayers with MAGI exceeding thresholds of $250,000 for 

single/head-of-household/married-filing-separate taxpayers and $500,000 for joint filers in 2022. 

As a result, individuals with MAGI above these thresholds could be taxed on 100 percent of their 

Social Security benefits. These thresholds would be indexed by the AWI in subsequent years. 

Increased revenue from this provision would be credited to the OASI and DI Trust Funds. 

Current-law taxation of benefits of up to 85% of benefits would be unchanged for those with 

MAGI below these new $250,000/$500,000 thresholds.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.01 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2089) by 0.01 percent of payroll.

12) Beginning in 2020, create a Social Security Basic Minimum Benefit.

Eligibility for the Social Security Basic Minimum Benefit (BMB) would be limited to OASI 

beneficiaries who have attained NRA. The BMB would be calculated on a household basis and 

split equally among members of the household. In the case of a married couple, both spouses 

would need to claim any Social Security benefits to which they are eligible before they could 

receive the BMB. If both spouses have claimed and one is at NRA or above and the other has not 

yet attained NRA, only the half of the BMB for the spouse over NRA would be paid. The BMB 

amount for single beneficiaries would be equal to the higher of: (1) the BMB base ($604 in 

2015), minus 70 percent of their current monthly OASI benefit (not including any BMB); and (2) 

zero. The BMB amount for married beneficiaries would be equal to the higher of: (1) the BMB 

base ($906 in 2015), minus 70 percent of the total household monthly OASI benefits (not 

including any BMB); and (2) zero.

The BMB bases for single and married beneficiaries would be updated annually for changes in 

the AWI; therefore, if someone is already receiving the BMB, it would increase by more than the 

Social Security COLA amount for a subsequent year, whenever the AWI increase is larger. The 

BMB amount would be recalculated at least annually, whenever there is a change in Social 

Security benefits (e.g., annually for COLAs, upon conversion to a survivors benefit). 

Single filers with AGI over $30,000 and joint filers with AGI (including taxable Social Security

benefits) over $45,000 would be subject to a clawback of the BMB through personal income tax 

filings. Any BMB would be reduced by one dollar for every dollar of income above the 

thresholds. The thresholds would increase after 2015 by changes in the C-CPI-U. Clawbacks 

would be credited back to the OASI Trust Fund.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.19 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2089) by 0.24 percent of payroll.
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Detailed Financial Results for the Provisions of the Proposal

Summary Results by Provision

Table A provides estimates of the effects on the OASDI long-range actuarial balance for each of 

the twelve provisions of the Commission’s plan separately and on a combined basis. The table 

also includes estimates of the effect of each provision on the annual balance (the difference 

between income rate and the cost rate, expressed as a percent of current-law taxable payroll) for 

the 75th projection year, 2089. Interaction among individual provisions is reflected only in the 

total estimates for the combined provisions.

Benefit Illustrations

Tables B1 and B2 provide illustrative examples of the projected change in benefit levels under 

the three provisions that affect benefit levels for beneficiaries retiring at age 65 in future years at 

five selected earnings levels, with selected numbers of years of work. The “Maximum-AIME 

Steady Earner” is assumed to have earnings at ages 22 through 64 that equal the current-law 

taxable maximum level (equivalent to $118,500 for 2015). As a result, the provision to increase 

the taxable maximum does not affect benefit levels illustrated in these tables. Table B3 provides 

additional important information on characteristics of retired workers represented by these 

illustrations.

Table B1 compares the initial benefit levels, assuming retirement at age 65 under the provisions 

of the plan, to both scheduled and payable current-law benefit levels. All benefit amounts under 

the plan are higher than those scheduled in current law, especially for the very low and low 

hypothetical earners with at least 30 years of earnings (due largely to the minimum benefit 

provision). The final two columns of this table show the level of scheduled benefits under the 

plan as a percentage of current-law scheduled and current-law payable benefits, respectively.

Table B2 compares the change in scheduled benefit levels at ages 65, 75, 85, and 95 under the 

plan to scheduled benefits under current law, assuming retirement at age 65. Table B2 shows that 

projected scheduled benefits under the provisions of the Commission’s plan increase in relation 

to current-law scheduled benefits between ages 65 and 95, because of the change in computing 

the COLA.

The hypothetical workers represented in these tables reflect average career-earnings patterns of 

workers who started receiving retirement benefits under the Social Security program in recent 

years. The tables subdivide workers with very low and low career-average earnings levels by 

their numbers of years of non-zero earnings.

Table B3 provides information helpful in interpreting the benefit illustrations in tables B1 and 

B2. Percentages in Table B3 are based on tabulations from a 10-percent sample of newly-entitled 

retired workers in 2007. Table B3 displays the percentages of these newly-entitled retired 

workers in 2007 that are closest to each of the illustrative examples and are:
Page 13 – Bipartisan Policy Center

1) “Dually Entitled”, meaning they received a higher spouse or widow(er) benefit based on 

the career earnings of their husband or wife,

2) “WEP” (Windfall Elimination Provision), meaning that they received a reduced benefit 

due to having a pension based on earnings that were not covered under the OASDI 

program (primarily certain government workers), and they had less than 30 years of 

substantial earnings that were taxable under the OASDI program,

3) “Foreign Born”, meaning that they entered the Social Security coverage area after birth 

(and generally after entering working ages), and

4) “All Others”, meaning they had none of the three characteristics listed above.

The extent to which retired-worker beneficiaries represented by each of the illustrative examples 

has any of the characteristics listed above (dually entitled, WEP, foreign born) is important 

because such individuals are less dependent on the OASDI benefit that relates to their own 

career-average earnings level.

Detailed Tables Containing Annual and Summary Projections

Enclosed with this letter are tables 1, 1a, 1b, 1b.n, 1c, and 1d, which provide annual and 

summary projections for the plan.

Trust Fund Operations

Table 1 provides projections of the financial operations of the OASDI program under the plan 

and shows that the combined OASDI Trust Funds would be fully solvent throughout the 75-year 

projection period. The OASDI program would also be solvent for the foreseeable future 

(sustainably solvent), because the OASDI trust fund ratio is projected to rise by the end of the 

period, 2090. The table shows the annual cost and income rates, annual balances, and trust fund 

ratios (reserves as percent of annual program cost) for OASDI, as well as the change from 

current law in these cost rates, income rates, and annual balances. Included at the bottom of this 

table are summarized rates for the 75-year (long-range) period.

The actuarial balance for the OASDI program over the 75-year projection period is improved by 

2.81 percent of taxable payroll, from an actuarial deficit of 2.68 percent of payroll under current 

law to a positive actuarial balance of 0.13 percent of taxable payroll.

Program Transfers and Trust Fund Reserves

Column 4 of Table 1a provides a projection of the level of reserves for the theoretical combined 

OASI and DI Trust Funds, assuming enactment of the twelve Social Security provisions of the 

Commission’s plan. These trust fund reserve amounts are expressed in present value dollars 

discounted to January 1, 2015. The table indicates that the provisions include no new specified 

transfers of general revenue to the trust funds. For purpose of comparison, the OASDI Trust 

Fund reserves, expressed in present value dollars, are also shown for the current-law Social 

Security program both without and with the added plan general fund transfers (zero in this case) 

in columns 6 and 7.
Page 14 – Bipartisan Policy Center

Note that negative values in columns 4, 6, and 7 represent the “unfunded obligation” for the 

program through the year. The unfunded obligation is the present value of the shortfall of 

revenue needed to pay full scheduled benefits on a timely basis from the date of trust fund 

reserve depletion through the end of the indicated year. Gross Domestic Product (GDP),

expressed in present value dollars, is shown in column 5 for comparison with other values in the 

table.

Effect of the Social Security Provisions on the Federal Budget

Table 1b shows the projected effect, in present value discounted dollars, on the federal budget 

(unified-budget and on-budget) cash flows and balances, assuming enactment of the twelve 

Social Security provisions of the Commission’s plan. Table 1b.n provides the estimated nominal 

dollar effect of enactment of the plan on annual budget balances for years 2015 through 2025. 

All values in these tables represent the amount of change from the level projected under current 

law. In addition, changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits, not 

payable under the law after depletion of trust fund reserves, would still be paid using revenue 

provided from the General Fund of the Treasury. The reader should be cautioned that this 

presumption of payment of benefits beyond the resources of the trust funds is prohibited under 

current law and is also inconsistent with all past experience under the Social Security program.

Column 1 of Table 1b shows the added plan general fund transfers (zero for this plan). Column 2 

shows the net changes in OASDI cash flow from all provisions of the plan.

We expect the net effect of the plan on unified budget cash flow (column 3) to be positive in 

years 2017 and later, reflecting savings to the long-range actuarial balance from provisions 1-9 

and 11.

Column 4 of Table 1b indicates that the effect of implementing the Commission’s plan is a 

reduction of the federal debt held by the public, reaching about $11.7 trillion in present value at 

the end of the 75-year projection period. Column 5 provides the projected effect of the plan on 

the annual unified budget balances, including both the cash flow effect in column 3 and the 

additional interest on the accumulated debt in column 4. Columns 6 and 7 indicate that the 

provisions of this plan would have no expected direct effects on the on-budget cash flow, or on 

the total federal debt, in the future.

It is important to note that we base these estimates on the intermediate assumptions of the 2015 

Trustees Report, so these estimates are not consistent with estimates made by the Office of 

Management and Budget or the Congressional Budget Office based on their assumptions. In 

particular, all present values are discounted using trust fund yield assumptions under the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report.

Annual Trust Fund Operations as a Percent of GDP

Table 1c provides annual cost, annual expenditures (amount that would be payable), and annual 

tax income for the OASDI program expressed as a percentage of GDP for both current law and 

assuming enactment of the twelve Social Security provisions of the Commission’s plan. Showing 
Page 15 – Bipartisan Policy Center

the annual trust fund cash flows as a percent of GDP provides an additional perspective on these 

trust fund operations in relation to the total value of goods and services produced in the United 

States. The relationship between income and cost is similar when expressed as a percent of GDP 

to that when expressed as a percent of taxable payroll (Table 1).

Effects on Trust Fund Reserves and Unfunded Obligations

Table 1d provides estimates of the changes in trust fund reserves. Values in this table are 

expressed in present value dollars discounted to January 1, 2015.

For the 75-year (long-range) period as a whole, the current-law unfunded obligation of $10.7

trillion is replaced by a positive trust fund reserve of $1.1 trillion in present value assuming 

enactment of the Commission’s plan. This change of $11.7 trillion results from:

 A $6.3 trillion increase in revenue (column 2), primarily from additional tax revenue, 

minus

 A $5.4 trillion decrease in cost (column 3), primarily from increasing the NRA, 

calculating the COLA using the C-CPI-U rather than the CPI-W, and decreasing future 

benefits through changes in the PIA formula.

We hope these estimates are helpful. Please let me know if we may provide further assistance.

Sincerely,

 

Stephen C. Goss

Chief Actuary

Enclosures
Table A--Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects for the “Bipartisan Policy 

Center’s Commission on Retirement Security and Personal Savings Plan”

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

in 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

1) Use an annualized “mini-PIA” formula beginning with retired 

worker beneficiaries newly eligible in 2022. For each indexed 

earnings year, compute an individual AIME and an individual PIA. 

Sum these individual PIAs for the 40 highest years of indexed 

earnings and divide that total amount by 37 to get the PIA for this 

provision. 

Phase-in over five years, meaning that in 2022, 80 percent of the 

benefit would be based on the old 35-year average PIA formula and 

20 percent on the new mini-PIA formula, shifting by 20 percentage 

points each year until 100 percent is based on the new mini-PIA 

formula for those attaining age 62 in 2026. 

Disabled worker benefits are unchanged under this provision................................................................ 0.28 ...................... 046

2) Replace the WEP and GPO with a revised reduction for most 

OASI benefits based on all earnings, beginning with beneficiaries 

newly eligible in 2022.................................................................................................................................. 0.08 ................. 012

3) Limit the spousal benefit to that received by the spouse of the 75th 

percentile career-average worker, beginning with retired workers 

newly eligible in 2022. For future cohorts, this limit would be 

indexed for inflation annually using chain weighted C-CPI-U. The 

provision affects divorced spouses and young spouses (retired 

workers) but not spouses of disabled workers.................................................................0.11 .............................................. 024

4) Enhance Survivors Benefits: Beginning for newly eligible retired 

workers and spouses in 2022, all claimants who are married would 

receive a specified joint-and-survivor annuity benefit (i.e., surviving 

spouses would receive 75 percent of the decedents’ benefits, in 

addition to their own) that would be payable if both were still alive. 

Initial benefits would be actuarially adjusted to keep the expected 

value of benefits equivalent to what would otherwise be current law 

(i.e., with the other provisions of this package incorporated) ................................................................ 0.06 ....................... -014

5) For retired worker beneficiaries newly eligible in 2022 (excluding 

disabled workers), add a new bend point at the wage-indexed 

equivalent of the 50th percentile of the AIME distribution minus $100 

(for 2015 eligibility) and change the PIA factors to 95/32/15/5. Also 

move the current-law first bend point from the wage-indexed 

equivalent of $826 in 2015 to $1,050 in 2015. Phase this provision 

in over 10 years (2022-2031). The phase-in would work on a 

weighted-average basis: 90% of CL formula + 10% of proposal 

formula for 2022, 80% of CL formula + 20% of proposal formula for 

2023, and so on ................................................................................................................................ 0.05 ............................. 010

6) Increase the taxable maximum linearly over 4 years to $195,000 

in 2020. After 2020, index the taxable maximum to AWI plus 0.5 

percentage point. Apply benefit credit on additional earnings taxed ................................ 0.53........................................... 060
Table A--Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects for the “Bipartisan Policy 

Center’s Commission on Retirement Security and Personal Savings Plan”

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

in 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

7) Increase the payroll tax rate by 0.1 percentage point per year for 

2017 through 2026 so that it equals 13.4 percent for 2026 and later. 

The increase would be split evenly between the employer and 

employee share, and would be split between OASI and DI in 

proportion to currently scheduled payroll tax rates................................................................ 0.87 ....................................... 100

8) After the normal retirement age (NRA) reaches 67 for those 

attaining 62 in 2022, increase it by 1 month every 2 years until the 

NRA reaches 69. Also increase the age up to which the delayed 

retirement credit may be earned at the same rate (from 70 to 72). No 

change to earliest eligibility age................................................................................................. 0.47 ................................1.36 ..

9) Beginning in 2017 (December 2016), for OASI beneficiaries only 

(DI beneficiaries would only be affected when their benefit converts 

to OASI at NRA), the annual COLA would be based on the chain

weighted version of the CPI-U................................................................................................ 0.46 ...................................... 062

10) Beginning in 2017, extend student benefits to age 22 for children 

of disabled or deceased workers if the child is in high school or 

below, college, or a vocational school (full-time)................................................................ -0.06......................................... -006

11) Beginning in 2022, for single/head-of-household/married-filingseparate taxpayers with MAGI of $250,000 or more and joint filers 

with MAGI of $500,000 or more, include up to the remaining 15

percent of Social Security benefits in taxable income (increased from 

up to 85 percent of benefits taxable under current law). In 

subsequent years, update these thresholds for growth in wages 

(AWI). Revenue from this provision would be credited to the Social 

Security trust funds. Current law taxation of up to 85 percent of 

Social Security benefits would remain unchanged................................................................ 0.01........................................ 001
Table A--Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects for the “Bipartisan Policy 

Center’s Commission on Retirement Security and Personal Savings Plan”

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

in 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

12) Beginning in 2020, create a Basic Minimum Benefit (BMB) 

within Social Security (i.e., the cost of the BMB would be charged as 

a cost to the OASI Trust Fund), with the following specifications: 

 Eligibility for the BMB would be limited to OASI 

beneficiaries who have attained normal retirement age (NRA) 

or above. OASI beneficiaries under NRA would not be 

eligible for the BMB.

 The BMB would be calculated on a household basis and split 

equally between members of the household. In the case of a 

married couple, both spouses would need to claim any Social 

Security benefits for which they are eligible before they could 

receive the BMB. If both spouses have claimed and one is 

NRA or above and the other has not yet attained NRA, only 

the half of the BMB for the spouse over NRA would be 

payable.

 The BMB amount for single beneficiaries would be equal to 

either: 1) the BMB base ($604 in 2015) – 0.70 * current 

monthly OASI benefit (not including any BMB), if positive; 

or 2) zero. 

 The BMB amount for married beneficiaries would be equal to 

either: 1) the BMB base ($906 in 2015) – 0.70 * total 

household monthly OASI benefits (not including any BMB), 

if positive; or 2) zero. 

 The BMB bases for singles and couples would be updated 

annually for changes in the average wage index (AWI).

 Single filers with Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) over $30,000 

and joint filers with AGI (including taxable SS benefits) over 

$45,000 would be subject to clawback of the BMB through 

the income tax system. Any BMB would be reduced by one 

dollar for every dollar of income above the thresholds. 

(Thresholds, in 2015 dollars, would be indexed to chained 

CPI-U.) Clawbacks would be credited back to the OASI 

Trust Fund ................................................................................................................................ -0.19 .......................... -024

Total for all provisions, including interaction ................................................................ 2.81 .........4.34

1Under current law, the estimated long-range OASDI actuarial balance is -2.68 percent of taxable payroll.

2Under current law, the estimated 75th year annual balance is -4.65 percent of taxable payroll.

Notes: All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2015 OASDI Trustees Report. 

 Estimates of individual provisions appear on a stand-alone basis relative to current law, unless otherwise stated.

Social Security Administration

Office of the Chief Actuary

June 9, 2016
Year 

Attain Index NRA Reduced Benefit Minimum

Age 65 (Wage-Indexed (CPI-Indexed 1 Mth/ 2 Yrs4 COLA5

Formula6 Benefit7 Total Scheduled Payable

2015 Dollars) 2015 Dollars)

 

2015 709 709 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 644 809 -1.3 -0.9 -5.9 0.0 -7.9 92 92

2050 643 1,022 -7.7 -0.9 0.5 0.0 -8.0 92 117

2080 646 1,431 -13.5 -0.9 0.5 0.0 -13.8 86 117

 

2015 709 709 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 644 809 -1.3 -0.9 -23.5 0.0 -25.1 75 75

2050 643 1,022 -7.7 -0.9 -18.7 0.0 -25.6 74 94

2080 646 1,431 -13.5 -0.9 -18.7 0.0 -30.3 70 95

 

2015 709 709 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 644 809 -1.3 -0.9 -35.3 0.0 -36.7 63 63

2050 643 1,022 -7.7 -0.9 -31.9 0.0 -37.7 62 79

2080 646 1,431 -13.5 -0.9 -32.0 0.0 -41.6 58 79

2015 927 927 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 842 1,058 -1.3 -0.9 17.7 0.0 15.2 115 115

2050 842 1,337 -7.7 -0.9 25.5 0.0 14.8 115 146

2080 846 1,873 -13.5 -0.9 25.5 0.0 7.6 108 146

2015 927 927 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 842 1,058 -1.3 -0.9 -3.4 0.0 -5.5 95 95

2050 842 1,337 -7.7 -0.9 2.2 0.0 -6.5 94 119

2080 846 1,873 -13.5 -0.9 2.2 0.0 -12.3 88 119

2015 927 927 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 842 1,058 -1.3 -0.9 -19.2 0.0 -20.9 79 79

2050 842 1,337 -7.7 -0.9 -15.6 0.0 -22.8 77 98

2080 846 1,873 -13.5 -0.9 -15.6 0.0 -27.6 72 98

2015 1,528 1,528 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 1,388 1,744 -1.3 -0.9 9.3 0.0 7.0 107 107

2050 1,388 2,204 -7.7 -0.9 11.9 0.0 2.4 102 130

2080 1,394 3,086 -13.5 -0.9 11.9 0.0 -4.0 96 130

2015 1,528 1,528 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 1,388 1,744 -1.3 -0.9 -10.5 0.0 -12.4 88 88

2050 1,388 2,204 -7.7 -0.9 -11.1 0.0 -18.7 81 103

2080 1,394 3,086 -13.5 -0.9 -11.1 0.0 -23.8 76 103

2015 2,025 2,025 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 1,839 2,310 -1.3 -0.9 0.3 0.0 -1.8 98 98

2050 1,838 2,920 -7.7 -0.9 -3.5 0.0 -11.7 88 112

2080 1,846 4,088 -13.5 -0.9 -3.5 0.0 -17.2 83 112

2015 2,452 2,452 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 2,249 2,826 -1.3 -0.9 -5.2 0.0 -7.3 93 93

2050 2,248 3,570 -7.7 -0.9 -13.9 0.0 -21.2 79 100

2080 2,251 4,985 -13.5 -0.9 -13.7 0.0 -26.0 74 100

1 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2015.

2

Projected percent of new retired worker awards in 2050 closest to AIME levels and years of work.

3 After the trust fund reserves deplete under present law continuing taxes are expected to be enough to pay about three fourths of scheduled benefits.

4

5

6

7

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration June 9, 2016

 Low-AIME ($21,519 for 20151) 44-Year Scaled Earner (16.0% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($21,519 for 20151) 30-Year Scaled Earner (4.6% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($21,519 for 20151) 20-Year Scaled Earner (2.2% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($47,820 for 20151) 44-Year Scaled Earner (29.4% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($47,820 for 20151) 30-Year Scaled Earner (2.4% of Retirees2)

 High-AIME ($76,512 for 20151) 44-Year Scaled Earner (21.4% of Retirees2)

 Maximum-AIME ($118,500 for 20151) 43-Year Steady Earner (5.9% of Retirees2)

After the NRA reaches 67 for those aged 62 in 2022, increase it by 1 month every 2 years until NRA reaches age 69.

Starting Dec 2016, compute the COLA using the chain-weighted C-CPI-U, producing 0.3% lower annual COLAs on average.

Beginning with newly eligible beneficiaries in 2022, change the PIA Formula to sum the highest 40 years of the amounts with the benefit formula applied to indexed individual years of earnings 

(mini PIA formula approach) divided by 37, phasing in from 2022-2026. Starting in 2022, change the bend points to $1,419/$4,345/$6,732 and PIA factors to 95%/32%/15%/5%. Phase the new 

bend points and PIA factors in from 2022-2031.

Beginning in 2020, the Basic Minimum Benefit (BMB) would apply for beneficiaries who have attained NRA. For single/married beneficiares, the BMB amount is $604/$906 - 0.70*total 

household monthly benefits in 2015, then wage indexed. The BMB is calculated at least annually, whenever there is a change in benefits. If MAGI is greater then $30,000 if single and $45,000 if 

married, any BMB above the limits would be reduced dollar for dollar. The threshold limits are as of 2015, then C-CPI-U indexed. The Minimum Benefit Percent change is calculated after all 

other provisions, so that the Proposed Benefit Amount is at least the Minimum Benefit. The examples in this table calculate the BMB for single beneficiaries.

(Percent change) (Percents)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,955 for 20151) 30-Year Scaled Earner (8.8% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,955 for 20151) 20-Year Scaled Earner (4.8% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,955 for 20151) 14-Year Scaled Earner (4.5% of Retirees2)

Monthly Benefits3 Percent of Present Law:

Table B1. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Beginning Benefit Receipt at age 65 

Bipartisan Policy Center's Commission on Retirement Security and Personal Savings Plan

Scheduled Benefit Level Percent Change at age 65

Present Law Scheduled Proposal Scheduled Benefit
Year 

Attain

Age 65 Age 65 Age 75 Age 85 Age 95

2015 100.0 131.5 143.4 156.8

2030 92.1 130.9 143.1 156.6

2050 92.0 130.7 142.0 154.6

2080 86.2 128.3 139.7 152.6

2015 100.0 131.5 143.4 156.8

2030 74.9 125.8 138.2 151.9

2050 74.4 125.6 137.1 149.8

2080 69.7 123.4 135.0 148.0

2015 100.0 131.5 143.4 156.8

2030 63.3 122.5 135.0 148.7

2050 62.3 122.0 133.6 146.4

2080 58.4 120.1 131.8 144.9

2015 100.0 107.4 116.3 126.3

2030 115.2 113.0 122.0 132.0

2050 114.8 112.9 121.1 130.4

2080 107.6 110.2 118.6 128.1

2015 100.0 107.4 116.3 126.3

2030 94.5 107.0 116.2 126.3

2050 93.5 106.7 115.1 124.5

2080 87.7 104.4 112.9 122.6

2015 100.0 107.4 116.3 126.3

2030 79.1 102.5 111.8 122.1

2050 77.2 101.9 110.5 120.1

2080 72.4 99.9 108.6 118.4

2015 100.0 97.4 94.6 91.9

2030 107.0 103.9 100.9 98.0

2050 102.4 99.5 96.6 93.8

2080 96.0 93.2 90.5 87.9

2015 100.0 97.4 94.6 91.9

2030 87.6 85.0 82.6 80.2

2050 81.3 79.0 76.7 74.5

2080 76.2 74.0 71.9 69.8

2015 100.0 97.4 94.6 91.9

2030 98.2 95.3 92.6 89.9

2050 88.3 85.8 83.3 80.9

2080 82.8 80.4 78.1 75.8

2015 100.0 97.4 94.6 91.9

2030 92.7 90.1 87.5 84.9

2050 78.8 76.5 74.3 72.2

2080 74.0 71.9 69.8 67.8

1 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2015.

2

Projected percent of new retired worker awards in 2050 closest to AIME levels and years of work.

Note: 

- Starting Dec 2016, compute the COLA using the chain-weighted C-CPI-U, producing 0.3% lower annual COLAs on average.

-

Other Changes: 

-

-

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration June 9, 2016

 High-AIME ($76,512 for 20151) 44-Year Scaled Earner (21.4% of Retirees2)

 Maximum-AIME ($118,500 for 20151) 43-Year Steady Earner (5.9% of Retirees2)

Beginning in 2020, the Basic Minimum Benefit (BMB) would apply for beneficiaries who have attained NRA. For single/married beneficiares, the BMB amount is $604/$906 - 

0.70*total household monthly benefits in 2015, then wage indexed. The BMB is calculated at least annually, whenever there is a change in benefits. If MAGI is greater then $30,000 if 

single and $45,000 if married, any BMB above the limits would be reduced dollar for dollar. The threshold limits are as of 2015, then C-CPI-U indexed. The Minimum Benefit Percent 

change is calculated after all other provisions, so that the Proposed Benefit Amount is at least the Minimum Benefit. The examples in this table calculate the BMB for single 

beneficiaries.

After the NRA reaches 67 for those aged 62 in 2022, increase it by 1 month every 2 years until NRA reaches age 69.

Beginning with newly eligible beneficiaries in 2022, change the PIA Formula to sum the highest 40 years of the amounts with the benefit formula applied to indexed individual years of 

earnings (mini PIA formula approach) divided by 37, phasing in from 2022-2026. Starting in 2022, change the bend points to $1,419/$4,345/$6,732 and PIA factors to 

95%/32%/15%/5%. Phase the new bend points and PIA factors in from 2022-2031.

 Medium-AIME ($47,820 for 20151) 30-Year Scaled Earner (2.4% of Retirees2)

Table B2. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Beginning Benefit Receipt at age 65 

Bipartisan Policy Center's Commission on Retirement Security and Personal Savings Plan

Proposal Scheduled Benefit as Percent of Present Law Scheduled

(Percent)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,955 for 20151) 30-Year Scaled Earner (8.8% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,955 for 20151) 20-Year Scaled Earner (4.8% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,955 for 20151) 14-Year Scaled Earner (4.5% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($21,519 for 20151) 44-Year Scaled Earner (16.0% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($21,519 for 20151) 30-Year Scaled Earner (4.6% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($21,519 for 20151) 20-Year Scaled Earner (2.2% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($47,820 for 20151) 44-Year Scaled Earner (29.4% of Retirees2)
Category Dually Entitled2 WEP3

Foreign Born All Others4

Very-Low-AIME ($11,955 for 20151):

30-Year Scaled Earner (9.3% of Retirees) 47 6 11 40

20-Year Scaled Earner (5.8% of Retirees) 38 16 21 31

14-Year Scaled Earner (5.3% of Retirees) 22 21 45 20

Low-AIME ($21,519 for 20151):

44-Year Scaled Earner (13.1% of Retirees) 15 2 6 78

30-Year Scaled Earner (5.9% of Retirees) 16 9 18 59

20-Year Scaled Earner (3.1% of Retirees) 10 23 35 37

Medium-AIME ($47,820 for 20151):

44-Year Scaled Earner (23.0% of Retirees) 1 1 5 93

30-Year Scaled Earner (4.4% of Retirees) 1 8 26 67

High-AIME ($76,512 for 20151):

44-Year Scaled Earner (20.5% of Retirees) 0 0 6 93

Maximum-AIME ($118,500 for 20151):

Steady Earner (9.4% of Retirees) 0 0 7 93

1 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2015.

2

3 Covered by pension from government employment and are subject to the windfall elimination provision (WEP).

4 Neither foreign born, subject to WEP, or dually entitled.

August 5, 2015

Note 3: The sum of the percentages for each category (sum across rows) could be greater than 100 percent because some beneficiaries can be classified in more than one of the 

following groups: dually entitled, WEP, and foreign born. 

Under current law, entitled to an additional benefit based on someone else's account. The dually entitled percent is a minimum value. Some beneficiaries that are not 

currently dually entitled could become dually entitled in the future.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration

Table B3. Important Characteristics of Hypothetical Workers in 2007

Percent of Beneficiaries Within Each Category That Are:

Note 1:Table B3 displays the percentages of these newly-entitled retired workers in 2007 that are closest to each of the illustrative examples.

Note 2: Percents based on tabulations of a 10-percent sample of newly entitled retired-worker beneficiaries in 2007 (169,725 records). We can be 95 percent confident that each 

of the values shown above is within 1.4 percentage points of the value we would find using 100 percent of the retirees in 2007.
Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

Bipartisan Policy Center’s Commission on Retirement Security and Personal Savings Plan

Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2015 14.13 12.82 -1.31 308 0.00 0.00 0.00

2016 13.88 12.88 -1.00 298 0.00 0.00 0.00

2017 13.93 13.19 -0.75 279 0.04 0.28 0.24

2018 13.97 13.45 -0.53 266 0.00 0.51 0.51

2019 14.06 13.67 -0.39 254 -0.03 0.72 0.75

2020 14.29 13.87 -0.42 242 0.06 0.90 0.84

2021 14.38 13.99 -0.39 233 0.03 1.01 0.98

2022 14.46 14.13 -0.33 226 -0.06 1.12 1.18

2023 14.59 14.24 -0.35 219 -0.13 1.21 1.35

2024 14.72 14.37 -0.35 213 -0.24 1.31 1.55

2025 14.83 14.49 -0.33 208 -0.34 1.41 1.75

2026 14.92 14.61 -0.31 205 -0.44 1.51 1.95

2027 15.01 14.63 -0.38 202 -0.54 1.52 2.06

2028 15.10 14.65 -0.45 200 -0.65 1.52 2.17

2029 15.19 14.67 -0.52 198 -0.74 1.53 2.27

2030 15.27 14.68 -0.59 196 -0.83 1.53 2.36

2031 15.33 14.70 -0.63 194 -0.91 1.53 2.44

2032 15.38 14.71 -0.67 192 -0.99 1.53 2.53

2033 15.42 14.72 -0.70 190 -1.06 1.54 2.60

2034 15.44 14.74 -0.70 188 -1.11 1.54 2.66

2035 15.45 14.75 -0.71 186 -1.17 1.55 2.71

2036 15.47 14.76 -0.71 184 -1.21 1.55 2.77

2037 15.47 14.77 -0.70 181 -1.25 1.56 2.81

2038 15.45 14.78 -0.67 179 -1.28 1.57 2.85

2039 15.42 14.78 -0.64 178 -1.31 1.57 2.88

2040 15.40 14.79 -0.60 176 -1.32 1.58 2.89

2041 15.37 14.80 -0.57 175 -1.32 1.58 2.91

2042 15.34 14.81 -0.53 174 -1.33 1.59 2.92

2043 15.31 14.82 -0.49 173 -1.33 1.60 2.93

2044 15.28 14.82 -0.46 172 -1.34 1.61 2.94

2045 15.25 14.83 -0.42 171 -1.34 1.61 2.96

2046 15.23 14.84 -0.39 171 -1.35 1.62 2.97

2047 15.20 14.85 -0.36 171 -1.36 1.63 2.99

2048 15.18 14.85 -0.32 171 -1.37 1.63 3.01

2049 15.15 14.86 -0.29 172 -1.39 1.64 3.03

2050 15.13 14.87 -0.27 172 -1.41 1.65 3.05

2051 15.12 14.88 -0.25 173 -1.43 1.65 3.09

2052 15.11 14.88 -0.22 174 -1.47 1.66 3.13

2053 15.10 14.89 -0.21 175 -1.50 1.66 3.17

2054 15.10 14.90 -0.20 176 -1.54 1.67 3.21

2055 15.11 14.91 -0.20 177 -1.58 1.67 3.26

2056 15.12 14.92 -0.20 178 -1.62 1.68 3.30

2057 15.13 14.93 -0.20 179 -1.66 1.68 3.35

2058 15.14 14.93 -0.21 180 -1.71 1.69 3.40

2059 15.15 14.94 -0.21 181 -1.75 1.70 3.44

2060 15.17 14.95 -0.22 182 -1.78 1.70 3.48

2061 15.19 14.96 -0.23 183 -1.82 1.71 3.52

2062 15.20 14.97 -0.23 184 -1.85 1.71 3.56

2063 15.22 14.98 -0.24 184 -1.89 1.72 3.60

2064 15.24 14.99 -0.25 185 -1.92 1.72 3.64

2065 15.26 15.00 -0.26 186 -1.96 1.73 3.68

2066 15.29 15.00 -0.28 187 -1.99 1.73 3.72

2067 15.31 15.01 -0.30 187 -2.02 1.74 3.75

2068 15.34 15.02 -0.32 187 -2.05 1.74 3.79

2069 15.36 15.03 -0.33 188 -2.08 1.75 3.83

2070 15.39 15.04 -0.35 188 -2.12 1.75 3.87

2071 15.40 15.05 -0.35 188 -2.15 1.76 3.91

2072 15.41 15.06 -0.35 188 -2.19 1.76 3.95

2073 15.42 15.06 -0.36 189 -2.21 1.77 3.98

2074 15.43 15.07 -0.36 189 -2.23 1.77 4.01

2075 15.43 15.08 -0.35 189 -2.25 1.78 4.03

2076 15.43 15.08 -0.34 190 -2.27 1.78 4.05

2077 15.42 15.09 -0.33 190 -2.28 1.79 4.07

2078 15.42 15.10 -0.33 191 -2.28 1.79 4.08

2079 15.42 15.10 -0.31 191 -2.29 1.80 4.09

2080 15.41 15.11 -0.30 192 -2.30 1.81 4.10

2081 15.41 15.12 -0.30 193 -2.30 1.81 4.11

2082 15.42 15.12 -0.30 193 -2.31 1.82 4.13

2083 15.42 15.13 -0.29 194 -2.32 1.82 4.15

2084 15.43 15.14 -0.29 195 -2.34 1.83 4.17

2085 15.44 15.14 -0.30 195 -2.37 1.83 4.20

2086 15.44 15.15 -0.29 196 -2.41 1.84 4.25

2087 15.45 15.16 -0.29 197 -2.44 1.84 4.28

2088 15.46 15.16 -0.30 198 -2.46 1.85 4.31

2089 15.49 15.17 -0.31 198 -2.49 1.85 4.34

2090 15.51 15.18 -0.33 199 -2.50 1.86 4.36

Summarized Rates: OASDI Summarized Rates: OASDI

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

2015 - 2089 15.24% 15.36% 0.13% N/A -1.31% 1.50% 2.81%

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration

1Under present law the year of combined Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034.

Change from Present Law

Year of reserve 

depletion1

June 9, 2016

Office of the Chief Actuary

Proposal

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll
Table 1a - General Fund Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Reserves, and Theoretical OASDI Reserves

Bipartisan Policy Center’s Commission on Retirement Security and Personal Savings Plan

Percentage

of Payroll

Annual

Amounts

Accumulated as of 

End of Year

Gross Domestic 

Product

Without General

Fund Transfers

With Plan General

Fund Transfers

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,707.3 17,864.2 2,707.3 2,707.3

2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,643.2 18,295.3 2,643.2 2,643.2

2017 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,593.8 18,734.7 2,578.0 2,578.0

2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,558.1 19,132.0 2,507.4 2,507.4

2019 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,531.2 19,486.1 2,427.9 2,427.9

2020 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,501.6 19,804.8 2,337.6 2,337.6

2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,474.0 20,085.5 2,238.5 2,238.5

2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,450.1 20,314.7 2,127.1 2,127.1

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,424.8 20,493.6 2,000.5 2,000.5

2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,399.3 20,642.8 1,857.5 1,857.5

2025 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,375.0 20,744.0 1,699.7 1,699.7

2026 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,352.4 20,784.6 1,527.9 1,527.9

2027 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,324.6 20,747.2 1,343.1 1,343.1

2028 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,291.8 20,625.1 1,146.5 1,146.5

2029 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,254.3 20,422.9 939.8 939.8

2030 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,212.5 20,183.3 724.6 724.6

2031 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,167.9 19,943.7 502.3 502.3

2032 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,121.2 19,705.2 274.5 274.5

2033 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,073.1 19,474.0 42.8 42.8

2034 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,025.4 19,248.0 -190.6 -190.6

2035 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,977.9 19,027.7 -425.3 -425.3

2036 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,930.9 18,807.4 -660.8 -660.8

2037 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,885.1 18,596.1 -895.6 -895.6

2038 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,841.7 18,395.2 -1,128.4 -1,128.4

2039 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,801.1 18,195.7 -1,358.1 -1,358.1

2040 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,763.1 18,000.2 -1,584.1 -1,584.1

2041 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,728.1 17,808.7 -1,806.0 -1,806.0

2042 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,695.7 17,617.1 -2,023.8 -2,023.8

2043 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,666.0 17,429.4 -2,237.7 -2,237.7

2044 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,638.8 17,243.1 -2,447.6 -2,447.6

2045 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,613.9 17,050.6 -2,653.8 -2,653.8

2046 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,591.6 16,863.4 -2,856.3 -2,856.3

2047 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,571.4 16,675.8 -3,055.5 -3,055.5

2048 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,553.3 16,486.5 -3,251.6 -3,251.6

2049 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,537.3 16,298.3 -3,444.8 -3,444.8

2050 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,523.0 16,109.8 -3,635.7 -3,635.7

2051 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,510.1 15,921.2 -3,824.8 -3,824.8

2052 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,498.6 15,734.1 -4,012.6 -4,012.6

2053 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,488.1 15,547.0 -4,199.5 -4,199.5

2054 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,478.1 15,361.2 -4,386.0 -4,386.0

2055 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,468.3 15,176.7 -4,572.4 -4,572.4

2056 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,458.7 14,993.4 -4,758.9 -4,758.9

2057 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,449.0 14,811.3 -4,945.7 -4,945.7

2058 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,439.3 14,630.8 -5,132.6 -5,132.6

2059 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,429.5 14,452.8 -5,319.5 -5,319.5

2060 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,419.4 14,276.9 -5,506.5 -5,506.5

2061 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,409.1 14,103.0 -5,693.5 -5,693.5

2062 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,398.5 13,931.9 -5,880.4 -5,880.4

2063 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,387.6 13,763.1 -6,067.3 -6,067.3

2064 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,376.4 13,597.0 -6,254.0 -6,254.0

2065 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,364.7 13,433.0 -6,440.7 -6,440.7

2066 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,352.4 13,271.3 -6,627.4 -6,627.4

2067 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,339.4 13,112.0 -6,814.1 -6,814.1

2068 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,325.9 12,954.5 -7,000.8 -7,000.8

2069 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,311.7 12,799.7 -7,187.5 -7,187.5

2070 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,297.2 12,647.5 -7,374.0 -7,374.0

2071 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,282.6 12,497.5 -7,560.2 -7,560.2

2072 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,268.1 12,349.6 -7,745.7 -7,745.7

2073 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,253.6 12,203.5 -7,930.3 -7,930.3

2074 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,239.3 12,059.4 -8,113.7 -8,113.7

2075 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,225.5 11,916.9 -8,295.5 -8,295.5

2076 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,212.2 11,775.9 -8,475.4 -8,475.4

2077 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,199.4 11,636.3 -8,653.2 -8,653.2

2078 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,187.2 11,498.1 -8,828.7 -8,828.7

2079 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,175.5 11,361.5 -9,002.0 -9,002.0

2080 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,164.5 11,225.9 -9,173.1 -9,173.1

2081 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,153.7 11,091.2 -9,342.2 -9,342.2

2082 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,143.2 10,957.5 -9,509.5 -9,509.5

2083 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,132.9 10,824.6 -9,675.4 -9,675.4

2084 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,122.7 10,692.5 -9,840.1 -9,840.1

2085 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,112.5 10,561.5 -10,003.7 -10,003.7

2086 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,102.8 10,431.7 -10,166.5 -10,166.5

2087 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,093.2 10,303.0 -10,328.5 -10,328.5

2088 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,083.4 10,175.5 -10,489.7 -10,489.7

2089 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,073.2 10,049.3 -10,650.3 -10,650.3

2090 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,062.5 9,924.4 -10,810.1 -10,810.1

Total 2015-2089 0.0

Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report.

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%.

Office of the Chief Actuary

1

 Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption Social Security Administration

 that the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury. June 9, 2016

Calendar

Year

Proposal General Fund Transfers Present Value in Billions as of 1-1-2015

Proposal

Total OASDI

Trust Fund

Reserves

 at End of Year

Theoretical Social Security1

with Borrowing Authority

Present Value in Billions as of 1-1- 2015 Net OASDI Trust Fund Reserves at End of Year
Table 1b - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1

 (Present Value Dollars)

Bipartisan Policy Center’s Commission on Retirement Security and Personal Savings Plan

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End Of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2017 0.0 15.8 15.8 -15.8 15.8 0.0 0.0

2018 0.0 34.9 34.9 -50.7 35.4 0.0 0.0

2019 0.0 52.6 52.6 -103.3 54.2 0.0 0.0

2020 0.0 60.7 60.7 -164.0 64.2 0.0 0.0

2021 0.0 71.5 71.5 -235.5 77.1 0.0 0.0

2022 0.0 87.5 87.5 -323.0 95.7 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 101.3 101.3 -424.3 112.9 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 117.5 117.5 -541.8 133.3 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 133.5 133.5 -675.4 155.4 0.0 0.0

2026 0.0 149.1 149.1 -824.5 178.5 0.0 0.0

2027 0.0 157.0 157.0 -981.5 195.6 0.0 0.0

2028 0.0 163.8 163.8 -1,145.3 213.1 0.0 0.0

2029 0.0 169.2 169.2 -1,314.5 230.8 0.0 0.0

2030 0.0 173.4 173.4 -1,488.0 244.1 0.0 0.0

2031 0.0 177.6 177.6 -1,665.6 257.6 0.0 0.0

2032 0.0 181.0 181.0 -1,846.7 270.5 0.0 0.0

2033 0.0 183.7 183.7 -2,030.3 282.9 0.0 0.0

2034 0.0 185.7 185.7 -2,216.0 294.8 0.0 0.0

2035 0.0 187.2 187.2 -2,403.2 306.3 0.0 0.0

2036 0.0 188.4 188.4 -2,591.6 317.5 0.0 0.0

2037 0.0 189.1 189.1 -2,780.8 328.4 0.0 0.0

2038 0.0 189.3 189.3 -2,970.1 338.7 0.0 0.0

2039 0.0 189.1 189.1 -3,159.2 348.7 0.0 0.0

2040 0.0 188.0 188.0 -3,347.2 357.8 0.0 0.0

2041 0.0 186.8 186.8 -3,534.0 366.7 0.0 0.0

2042 0.0 185.5 185.5 -3,719.5 375.4 0.0 0.0

2043 0.0 184.1 184.1 -3,903.7 384.0 0.0 0.0

2044 0.0 182.8 182.8 -4,086.4 392.5 0.0 0.0

2045 0.0 181.3 181.3 -4,267.7 400.9 0.0 0.0

2046 0.0 180.1 180.1 -4,447.9 409.4 0.0 0.0

2047 0.0 179.0 179.0 -4,626.9 418.0 0.0 0.0

2048 0.0 178.0 178.0 -4,804.9 426.6 0.0 0.0

2049 0.0 177.2 177.2 -4,982.1 435.4 0.0 0.0

2050 0.0 176.5 176.5 -5,158.7 444.2 0.0 0.0

2051 0.0 176.2 176.2 -5,334.9 453.4 0.0 0.0

2052 0.0 176.3 176.3 -5,511.2 463.0 0.0 0.0

2053 0.0 176.4 176.4 -5,687.6 472.5 0.0 0.0

2054 0.0 176.5 176.5 -5,864.1 482.1 0.0 0.0

2055 0.0 176.6 176.6 -6,040.7 491.7 0.0 0.0

2056 0.0 176.9 176.9 -6,217.6 501.4 0.0 0.0

2057 0.0 177.0 177.0 -6,394.7 511.1 0.0 0.0

2058 0.0 177.2 177.2 -6,571.8 520.8 0.0 0.0

2059 0.0 177.2 177.2 -6,749.0 530.3 0.0 0.0

2060 0.0 177.0 177.0 -6,926.0 539.6 0.0 0.0

2061 0.0 176.7 176.7 -7,102.6 548.8 0.0 0.0

2062 0.0 176.3 176.3 -7,278.9 558.0 0.0 0.0

2063 0.0 175.9 175.9 -7,454.9 567.1 0.0 0.0

2064 0.0 175.5 175.5 -7,630.4 576.1 0.0 0.0

2065 0.0 175.0 175.0 -7,805.4 585.0 0.0 0.0

2066 0.0 174.4 174.4 -7,979.8 593.8 0.0 0.0

2067 0.0 173.8 173.8 -8,153.5 602.5 0.0 0.0

2068 0.0 173.2 173.2 -8,326.7 611.3 0.0 0.0

2069 0.0 172.5 172.5 -8,499.2 619.9 0.0 0.0

2070 0.0 172.0 172.0 -8,671.2 628.6 0.0 0.0

2071 0.0 171.6 171.6 -8,842.8 637.5 0.0 0.0

2072 0.0 171.0 171.0 -9,013.8 646.1 0.0 0.0

2073 0.0 170.2 170.2 -9,184.0 654.5 0.0 0.0

2074 0.0 169.1 169.1 -9,353.0 662.5 0.0 0.0

2075 0.0 167.9 167.9 -9,520.9 670.5 0.0 0.0

2076 0.0 166.6 166.6 -9,687.6 678.2 0.0 0.0

2077 0.0 165.1 165.1 -9,852.6 685.6 0.0 0.0

2078 0.0 163.3 163.3 -10,015.9 692.7 0.0 0.0

2079 0.0 161.6 161.6 -10,177.5 699.8 0.0 0.0

2080 0.0 160.1 160.1 -10,337.6 706.9 0.0 0.0

2081 0.0 158.3 158.3 -10,495.9 713.8 0.0 0.0

2082 0.0 156.8 156.8 -10,652.7 720.8 0.0 0.0

2083 0.0 155.5 155.5 -10,808.3 727.9 0.0 0.0

2084 0.0 154.5 154.5 -10,962.7 735.2 0.0 0.0

2085 0.0 153.5 153.5 -11,116.2 742.6 0.0 0.0

2086 0.0 153.1 153.1 -11,269.3 750.4 0.0 0.0

2087 0.0 152.4 152.4 -11,421.7 757.9 0.0 0.0

2088 0.0 151.5 151.5 -11,573.1 765.2 0.0 0.0

2089 0.0 150.4 150.4 -11,723.5 772.2 0.0 0.0

Total 2015-2089 0.0 11,723.5 11,723.5

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report.

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%.

Note: Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would Office of the Chief Actuary

 nonetheless be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. Social Security Administration

1

 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table. June 9, 2016

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2015
Table 1b.n - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1

 (Nominal Dollars)

Bipartisan Policy Center’s Commission on Retirement Security and Personal Savings Plan

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2017 0.0 17.1 17.1 -17.4 17.4 0.0 0.0

2018 0.0 39.1 39.1 -57.8 40.3 0.0 0.0

2019 0.0 60.8 60.8 -121.7 64.0 0.0 0.0

2020 0.0 72.5 72.5 -200.1 78.4 0.0 0.0

2021 0.0 88.4 88.4 -297.9 97.8 0.0 0.0

2022 0.0 112.0 112.0 -423.8 125.9 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 134.6 134.6 -578.2 154.4 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 162.0 162.0 -767.6 189.5 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 191.5 191.5 -997.7 230.1 0.0 0.0

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report.

Note: Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would Office of the Chief Actuary

 nonetheless be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. Social Security Administration

1

 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table. June 9, 2016

Billions of Nominal Dollars
Table 1c - Present Law and Proposal Cost, Expenditures, and Income: As Percent of Gross Domestic Product

Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

2015 4.98 4.98 4.52 4.98 4.98 4.52

2016 4.89 4.89 4.54 4.89 4.89 4.54

2017 4.96 4.96 4.61 4.97 4.97 4.70

2018 5.02 5.02 4.65 5.02 5.02 4.83

2019 5.10 5.10 4.68 5.08 5.08 4.94

2020 5.17 5.17 4.71 5.19 5.19 5.04

2021 5.23 5.23 4.74 5.25 5.25 5.10

2022 5.31 5.31 4.76 5.29 5.29 5.17

2023 5.41 5.41 4.78 5.36 5.36 5.23

2024 5.50 5.50 4.80 5.41 5.41 5.29

2025 5.57 5.57 4.80 5.45 5.45 5.32

2026 5.63 5.63 4.80 5.47 5.47 5.36

2027 5.70 5.70 4.80 5.50 5.50 5.36

2028 5.76 5.76 4.80 5.52 5.52 5.36

2029 5.82 5.82 4.80 5.54 5.54 5.35

2030 5.87 5.87 4.80 5.57 5.57 5.35

2031 5.91 5.91 4.79 5.58 5.58 5.35

2032 5.95 5.95 4.79 5.59 5.59 5.35

2033 5.98 5.98 4.79 5.60 5.60 5.35

2034 6.00 5.00 4.78 5.60 5.60 5.34

2035 6.02 4.78 4.78 5.60 5.60 5.34

2036 6.04 4.78 4.78 5.60 5.60 5.34

2037 6.05 4.78 4.78 5.59 5.59 5.34

2038 6.04 4.77 4.77 5.58 5.58 5.34

2039 6.04 4.77 4.77 5.57 5.57 5.34

2040 6.03 4.77 4.77 5.55 5.55 5.34

2041 6.02 4.76 4.76 5.54 5.54 5.33

2042 6.00 4.76 4.76 5.52 5.52 5.33

2043 5.99 4.76 4.76 5.51 5.51 5.33

2044 5.98 4.76 4.76 5.50 5.50 5.33

2045 5.97 4.75 4.75 5.49 5.49 5.33

2046 5.96 4.75 4.75 5.47 5.47 5.33

2047 5.95 4.75 4.75 5.46 5.46 5.33

2048 5.94 4.75 4.75 5.45 5.45 5.33

2049 5.93 4.74 4.74 5.44 5.44 5.33

2050 5.93 4.74 4.74 5.43 5.43 5.33

2051 5.93 4.74 4.74 5.42 5.42 5.33

2052 5.93 4.74 4.74 5.41 5.41 5.33

2053 5.94 4.73 4.73 5.40 5.40 5.33

2054 5.95 4.73 4.73 5.40 5.40 5.33

2055 5.96 4.73 4.73 5.40 5.40 5.33

2056 5.98 4.72 4.72 5.40 5.40 5.32

2057 5.99 4.72 4.72 5.40 5.40 5.32

2058 6.00 4.72 4.72 5.39 5.39 5.32

2059 6.02 4.72 4.72 5.39 5.39 5.32

2060 6.03 4.71 4.71 5.39 5.39 5.32

2061 6.04 4.71 4.71 5.40 5.40 5.32

2062 6.05 4.71 4.71 5.40 5.40 5.31

2063 6.07 4.70 4.70 5.40 5.40 5.31

2064 6.08 4.70 4.70 5.40 5.40 5.31

2065 6.09 4.69 4.69 5.40 5.40 5.30

2066 6.10 4.69 4.69 5.40 5.40 5.30

2067 6.11 4.68 4.68 5.40 5.40 5.30

2068 6.13 4.68 4.68 5.40 5.40 5.29

2069 6.14 4.67 4.67 5.41 5.41 5.29

2070 6.15 4.67 4.67 5.41 5.41 5.29

2071 6.16 4.67 4.67 5.41 5.41 5.28

2072 6.17 4.66 4.66 5.40 5.40 5.28

2073 6.18 4.66 4.66 5.40 5.40 5.28

2074 6.18 4.65 4.65 5.40 5.40 5.27

2075 6.18 4.65 4.65 5.39 5.39 5.27

2076 6.18 4.64 4.64 5.38 5.38 5.26

2077 6.17 4.64 4.64 5.38 5.38 5.26

2078 6.16 4.63 4.63 5.37 5.37 5.26

2079 6.16 4.63 4.63 5.36 5.36 5.25

2080 6.15 4.62 4.62 5.35 5.35 5.25

2081 6.15 4.62 4.62 5.35 5.35 5.24

2082 6.14 4.61 4.61 5.34 5.34 5.24

2083 6.14 4.61 4.61 5.34 5.34 5.24

2084 6.15 4.60 4.60 5.34 5.34 5.24

2085 6.16 4.60 4.60 5.34 5.34 5.23

2086 6.16 4.60 4.60 5.33 5.33 5.23

2087 6.17 4.59 4.59 5.33 5.33 5.23

2088 6.18 4.59 4.59 5.33 5.33 5.23

2089 6.19 4.59 4.59 5.34 5.34 5.23

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

June 9, 2016

Present Law OASDI Proposal OASDI

Calendar

Year

Bipartisan Policy Center’s Commission on Retirement Security and Personal Savings Plan
Table 1d - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Reserves / Unfunded Obligation

Bipartisan Policy Center’s Commission on Retirement Security and Personal Savings Plan

Year

Present Law OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Total Change

Through

End of Year

Proposal OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) = cumulative sum(4) (6) = (1)+(5)

2015 2,707.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,707.3

2016 2,643.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,643.2

2017 2,578.0 18.4 2.6 15.8 15.8 2,593.8

2018 2,507.4 35.2 0.3 34.9 50.7 2,558.1

2019 2,427.9 50.5 -2.1 52.6 103.3 2,531.2

2020 2,337.6 64.9 4.2 60.7 164.0 2,501.6

2021 2,238.5 73.9 2.4 71.5 235.5 2,474.0

2022 2,127.1 83.0 -4.5 87.5 323.0 2,450.1

2023 2,000.5 91.3 -10.1 101.3 424.3 2,424.8

2024 1,857.5 99.5 -18.0 117.5 541.8 2,399.3

2025 1,699.7 107.7 -25.8 133.5 675.4 2,375.0

2026 1,527.9 115.5 -33.6 149.1 824.5 2,352.4

2027 1,343.1 115.6 -41.4 157.0 981.5 2,324.6

2028 1,146.5 114.8 -49.0 163.8 1,145.3 2,291.8

2029 939.8 113.9 -55.4 169.2 1,314.5 2,254.3

2030 724.6 112.5 -60.9 173.4 1,488.0 2,212.5

2031 502.3 111.2 -66.4 177.6 1,665.6 2,167.9

2032 274.5 110.1 -71.0 181.0 1,846.7 2,121.2

2033 42.8 108.9 -74.7 183.7 2,030.3 2,073.1

2034 -190.6 108.0 -77.8 185.7 2,216.0 2,025.4

2035 -425.3 106.8 -80.4 187.2 2,403.2 1,977.9

2036 -660.8 105.9 -82.5 188.4 2,591.6 1,930.9

2037 -895.6 105.0 -84.2 189.1 2,780.8 1,885.1

2038 -1,128.4 104.2 -85.1 189.3 2,970.1 1,841.7

2039 -1,358.1 103.3 -85.8 189.1 3,159.2 1,801.1

2040 -1,584.1 102.6 -85.5 188.0 3,347.2 1,763.1

2041 -1,806.0 101.8 -85.0 186.8 3,534.0 1,728.1

2042 -2,023.8 101.1 -84.3 185.5 3,719.5 1,695.7

2043 -2,237.7 100.5 -83.6 184.1 3,903.7 1,666.0

2044 -2,447.6 99.8 -83.0 182.8 4,086.4 1,638.8

2045 -2,653.8 99.0 -82.3 181.3 4,267.7 1,613.9

2046 -2,856.3 98.4 -81.8 180.1 4,447.9 1,591.6

2047 -3,055.5 97.6 -81.4 179.0 4,626.9 1,571.4

2048 -3,251.6 96.9 -81.2 178.0 4,804.9 1,553.3

2049 -3,444.8 96.1 -81.1 177.2 4,982.1 1,537.3

2050 -3,635.7 95.3 -81.3 176.5 5,158.7 1,523.0

2051 -3,824.8 94.5 -81.7 176.2 5,334.9 1,510.1

2052 -4,012.6 93.6 -82.7 176.3 5,511.2 1,498.6

2053 -4,199.5 92.7 -83.7 176.4 5,687.6 1,488.1

2054 -4,386.0 91.8 -84.7 176.5 5,864.1 1,478.1

2055 -4,572.4 90.9 -85.7 176.6 6,040.7 1,468.3

2056 -4,758.9 90.0 -86.9 176.9 6,217.6 1,458.7

2057 -4,945.7 89.1 -88.0 177.0 6,394.7 1,449.0

2058 -5,132.6 88.2 -89.0 177.2 6,571.8 1,439.3

2059 -5,319.5 87.3 -89.8 177.2 6,749.0 1,429.5

2060 -5,506.5 86.4 -90.6 177.0 6,926.0 1,419.4

2061 -5,693.5 85.5 -91.1 176.7 7,102.6 1,409.1

2062 -5,880.4 84.7 -91.7 176.3 7,278.9 1,398.5

2063 -6,067.3 83.8 -92.1 175.9 7,454.9 1,387.6

2064 -6,254.0 82.9 -92.6 175.5 7,630.4 1,376.4

2065 -6,440.7 82.1 -92.9 175.0 7,805.4 1,364.7

2066 -6,627.4 81.2 -93.1 174.4 7,979.8 1,352.4

2067 -6,814.1 80.4 -93.4 173.8 8,153.5 1,339.4

2068 -7,000.8 79.5 -93.6 173.2 8,326.7 1,325.9

2069 -7,187.5 78.7 -93.8 172.5 8,499.2 1,311.7

2070 -7,374.0 77.9 -94.0 172.0 8,671.2 1,297.2

2071 -7,560.2 77.1 -94.5 171.6 8,842.8 1,282.6

2072 -7,745.7 76.3 -94.7 171.0 9,013.8 1,268.1

2073 -7,930.3 75.6 -94.6 170.2 9,184.0 1,253.6

2074 -8,113.7 74.8 -94.3 169.1 9,353.0 1,239.3

2075 -8,295.5 74.1 -93.8 167.9 9,520.9 1,225.5

2076 -8,475.4 73.3 -93.3 166.6 9,687.6 1,212.2

2077 -8,653.2 72.6 -92.5 165.1 9,852.6 1,199.4

2078 -8,828.7 71.9 -91.4 163.3 10,015.9 1,187.2

2079 -9,002.0 71.2 -90.5 161.6 10,177.5 1,175.5

2080 -9,173.1 70.5 -89.6 160.1 10,337.6 1,164.5

2081 -9,342.2 69.8 -88.5 158.3 10,495.9 1,153.7

2082 -9,509.5 69.1 -87.7 156.8 10,652.7 1,143.2

2083 -9,675.4 68.4 -87.1 155.5 10,808.3 1,132.9

2084 -9,840.1 67.7 -86.7 154.5 10,962.7 1,122.7

2085 -10,003.7 67.0 -86.5 153.5 11,116.2 1,112.5

2086 -10,166.5 66.3 -86.7 153.1 11,269.3 1,102.8

2087 -10,328.5 65.6 -86.7 152.4 11,421.7 1,093.2

2088 -10,489.7 64.9 -86.5 151.5 11,573.1 1,083.4

2089 -10,650.3 64.3 -86.1 150.4 11,723.5 1,073.2

Total 2015-2089 6311.2 -5412.3 11723.5

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%. June 9, 2016

(Billions of Dollars, Present Value on 1-1-2015)