SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE MD 21235-0001

April 13, 2011 

Senator Lindsey Graham 

Senator Rand Paul 

Senator Mike Lee 

United States Senate

Washington, D.C. 20510 

Dear Senator Graham, Senator Paul, and Senator Lee:

We are writing in response to your request for estimates of the financial effects on Social 

Security of S. 804, “The Social Security Solvency and Sustainability Act”, which was introduced 

today. We have worked closely with Colin Allen of Senator Graham’s staff in the development 

of the Bill provisions. The estimates provided here reflect our understanding of the intent based 

on our discussions with Colin. All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 

2010 Trustees Report. The estimates presented reflect the combined efforts of many in our 

office, but particularly Dan Nickerson, Jason Schultz, Tiffany Bosley, Michael Clingman, and 

Katie Kraft. 

The Bill includes the following two provisions: 

 The Normal Retirement Age (NRA) will increase 3 months each year starting with

individuals reaching age 62 in 2017 and stopping when the NRA reaches age 70 for

individuals reaching age 62 in 2032. Thereafter, the NRA will be indexed to maintain a

constant ratio of expected retirement years to potential work years, about 1 month every 2

years. The Earliest Eligibility Age (EEA) will be increased by 3 months per year starting

with individuals reaching age 62 in 2021 and will stop when the EEA reaches age 64 for

individuals reaching age 62 in 2028 and later.

 The Primary Insurance Amount (PIA) formula will be modified between 2018 and 2055

to gradually reduce benefits on a progressive basis for workers with career-average

earnings above the 40th percentile of new retired workers. The reduction for a steady

maximum earner will be equivalent to that of replacing the current wage indexed PIA

formula from one generation to the next, with a CPI-indexed formula across generations.

Disabled worker beneficiaries will be held harmless, as will children of deceased workers

and surviving spouses with a child in care.

The balance of this letter provides a summary of the estimated effects of enacting this Bill on the 

actuarial status of the OASDI program, a description of our understanding of the intent of the 

Bill, and detailed estimates of the effects of enactment.
2

Summary of Effects on Actuarial Status

Figure 1 below illustrates the expected change in the combined Old Age, Survivors Insurance 

(OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund assets, expressed as a percent of annual 

program cost, with enactment of this Bill. Assuming enactment, the OASDI program would be 

expected to be solvent for the next 75 years, under the intermediate assumptions of the 2010 

Trustees Report. The level of assets for the theoretical combined OASI and DI Trust Funds 

would remain positive through 2084, permitting full payment of scheduled benefits on a timely 

basis. The level of Trust Fund assets expressed as a percentage of annual program cost would 

decline from about 350 percent currently to a low point of 63 percent in 2051, but would rise 

thereafter, reaching 250 percent of annual cost by the beginning of 2084. With enactment of the 

Bill, the OASDI program would therefore meet the requirements of sustainable solvency, 

meaning that the program would be expected to be solvent for the foreseeable future. 

Note: Trust Fund Ratio for a given year is the ratio of assets in the combined OASI and DI Trust 

Fund assets at the beginning of the year to the cost of the program during the year.

Enactment of the Bill would improve the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by 2.08 percent of 

taxable payroll, replacing the actuarial deficit of 1.92 percent of taxable payroll under current 

law with a positive actuarial balance of 0.16 percent of payroll. 
3

Figure 2 below illustrates annual projected levels of cost and income as a percent of taxable 

payroll under current law. The projected levels of cost are shown for present-law scheduled and 

payable benefits (when less than the cost for scheduled benefits) and for benefits under this Bill. 

Under this Bill, the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds do not exhaust and, thus, payable 

benefits (expenditures) equal scheduled benefits over the 75-year projection period.
4

It is also useful to consider the projected cost and income for the OASDI program expressed as a 

percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The graph below illustrates these levels under 

both current law and this Bill. 
5

Plan Specification for Provisions Directly Affecting the Social Security Trust Funds

(1) Increase the Normal Retirement Age and Earliest Eligibility Age

 

Under current law, the normal retirement age (NRA) will increase 2 months per year beginning 

with individuals attaining age 62 in 2017 until it reaches age 67. Thus, the NRA for individuals 

attaining age 62 in 2022 and later is age 67. Individuals who delay receipt of benefits until after 

reaching their NRA receive increases in their benefits (delayed retirement credits) at a rate of 8 

percent for each delayed year up to age 70. The earliest eligibility age (EEA) under current law 

does not change in the future; it remains at age 62. 

This provision would increase the NRA 3 months per year beginning with individuals attaining 

age 62 in 2017 until the NRA reaches age 70. Thus, the NRA for individuals attaining age 62 in 

2032 would be age 70. Thereafter, this provision would index the NRA to maintain a constant 

ratio of (a) expected retirement years (life expectancy at NRA) to (b) potential working years 

(NRA-20) at the level for 2032. The data used for these calculations would be period unisex life 

expectancy based on Social Security/Medicare data, reflecting the changes from 2018 to the 

fourth year prior to the year age 62 is attained. This approach would offset the effect of 

increasing old-age life expectancy on the cost of the OASDI program relative to the payroll tax

base. Under the intermediate assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report, we estimate the increase 

to be one month for every 2 years after 2032. 

This provision also changes the age up to which delayed retirement credits (DRCs) can be 

earned. Under current law, DRCs can be earned after attaining NRA up to age 70. Individuals 

receive an increase in their primary insurance amount (PIA) at a rate of 8 percentage points per 

year in which benefits are not received after NRA, up to age 70. When the NRA is 67 under 

current law for those attaining age 62 in 2022 and later, DRCs could be earned for up to 3 years 

(36 months). With enactment of this Bill, DRCs could be earned for up to 4 years (48 months) 

after attaining NRA.

In addition, the earliest eligibility age (EEA) would be increased from age 62 to age 64. The 

timing and rate of increase would be the same as the increase in the NRA from age 67 to age 69 

under the Bill. Thus, the EEA would increase 3 months per year starting with individuals 

attaining age 62 in 2021 and stopping with individuals attaining age 62 in 2028. For individuals 

attaining age 62 after 2028, the EEA would be age 64. We assume that increasing the EEA 

would increase the indexing year (for both bend points and AIME) and the computation period in 

the PIA formula. Thus, earnings used in calculating an individual’s average indexed monthly 

earnings (AIME) would continue to be indexed to the second year before the individual’s year of 

initial eligibility. However, we assume no change in the requirements for fully insured status. 

Disabled worker benefits would continue to be payable from the Disability Insurance Trust Fund 

until conversion to retired worker status at NRA. 
6

This provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by an estimated 1.36 

percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 75th projection year (2084) 

by 2.90 percent of payroll.

(2) Modify the Benefit Formula

This provision, sometimes referred to as progressive indexing, would gradually reduce the 

benefit credit provided in the basic benefit (Primary Insurance Amount, or PIA) formula for 

career-average earnings above the level of the 40th percentile for newly retired beneficiaries. No 

reduction from current-law scheduled benefit credit would apply for career-average earnings up 

to the 40th percentile ($43,412 on an annual basis wage indexed to 2018, and about $30,900 wage 

indexed to 2010, including the portion of career-average earnings below this level for workers 

with much higher total career-average earnings). The gradual reductions would apply to the PIA 

of workers with career average earnings level above this level, beginning with those attaining 62 

in 2018 and stopping with those attaining age 62 in 2055. These reductions from one generation 

to the next would be smallest for workers retiring with career-average earnings levels just above 

the 40th percentile and largest for those with steady maximum taxable earnings, as shown in 

Table B. 

Under current law, the PIA formula provides a basic monthly benefit for workers newly eligible 

in 2010, which equals:

• 90 percent of an individual’s average indexed monthly earnings (AIME) up to the first 

bend point ($761); 

• 32 percent of AIME between the first bend point and the second bend point ($4,586); and 

• 15 percent of AIME above the second bend point. 

This provision would introduce a new bend point at the 40th percentile level of average indexed 

monthly earnings (AIME) for newly eligible beneficiaries, starting in 2018. The new bend point 

would be between the present-law first and second bend points, or at a level equivalent to about 

$2,500 for workers newly eligible in 2010. The PIA formula factors would remain at 90 percent 

for AIME below the first bend point and 32 percent between the first bend point and the new 

bend point (at the 40th percentile). Beginning in 2018, and continuing through 2055, the 32-

percent factor that now applies between the 40th percentile level (the new bend point) and the 

upper bend point, and the 15-percent factor that applies above the upper bend point would 

gradually be reduced. The reduction would be determined such that benefits for a steady 

maximum earner would rise from one generation to the next at the rate of increase in the 

consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI-W), rather than at the 

rate of increase in the national average wage index (AWI). This would reduce the average rate 

of growth in benefits across generations for steady maximum earners by about 1.2 percent per 

year between 2017 and 2055. The resulting PIA formula factors for those newly eligible for 

benefits in 2055 and later would be 90 percent, 32 percent, 9.2 percent, and 4.3 percent. For 
7

more details on the development of the PIA formula, see our memorandum to Senator Robert 

Bennett dated February 12, 20091. 

This proposal would not affect benefits paid for young survivors, which include children of 

deceased workers and surviving spouses with a child in care. The current-law PIA formula 

would be retained for benefits paid to these classes of beneficiaries. 

This proposal would not affect benefits paid from the Disability Insurance Trust Fund. However, 

under this provision, disabled workers would receive a portion of the reduction applicable for 

workers of their age upon reaching NRA, which is the age at which they convert from disabled 

worker to retired worker benefit status. The reduction applied would be in proportion to the 

number of elapsed years between ages 22 and 62 for which no disabled worker benefit was 

received. For example, a worker who became entitled to disabled worker benefits at age 32 

would have 10 years (from 22 to 31) of potential work out of the 40 elapsed years (from 22 to 

61). Thus, this worker would receive at NRA 10/40, or 25 percent, of the reduction applicable for 

a retired worker of the same age who had never been disabled. Note that disabled workers 

converting to retired worker benefit status at NRA would retain the PIA formula used for the 

year of disability entitlement. The proportionate reduction to that formula would be made by 

reducing the 32 and 15 percent factors above the protected level by the applicable proportion of 

the full reduction, based on years of disability. For a disabled worker with an AIME equivalent 

to one of the levels indicated in Table B, the percentage reductions shown in Table B for retirees 

would apply, adjusted by the appropriate proportion reflecting years of disability.

This provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit by 0.91 percent of 

taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 75th projection year (2084) by 2.35 

percent of payroll.

Detailed Financial Results 

Summary Results by Provision

Table A provides estimates of the effects on the OASDI long-range actuarial balance for each 

provision of the Bill separately, and on a combined basis. Summary estimates are also provided 

for the effect on the annual balance (the difference between income rate and the cost rate, 

expressed as a percent of present-law taxable payroll) for the 75th projection year, 2084. 

Benefit Illustrations

Tables B1 and B2 provide illustrative examples of the projected change in benefit levels under 

this Bill for beneficiaries retiring at age 65 in future years at various earnings levels. Table B1 

compares the changes in initial benefit levels to both scheduled and payable present-law benefits. 

Table B2 compares the changes in benefit levels at ages 65, 75, 85, and 95 to scheduled benefits 

under present law. Table B2 shows that benefit levels under the proposal, relative to present law 

 1 This memorandum is available at http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/solvency/RBennett_20090212.pdf. A 4-step process 

describing in detail the changes to the PIA formula is provided on pages 3-4.
8

scheduled levels, would not change for retirees after their age of initial eligibility. Any 

percentage change in scheduled benefit level under the Bill for a given retiring generation (those 

reaching age 65, or age 62 in a particular year) would be the same at all ages after initial 

eligibility.

Trust Fund Operations

Table 1 shows the annual cost and income rates, annual balances, and trust fund ratios for 

OASDI assuming enactment of the Bill. This table also shows the change from present law in 

these cost rates, income rates, and balances. Included at the bottom of this table are summarized 

rates for the 75-year long-range period and the expected year of trust fund exhaustion under this 

Bill. 

Table 1 indicates that the OASDI program is projected to be solvent throughout the 75-year 

projection period assuming enactment of the Bill. After 2010, the trust fund ratio is projected to 

decline, reaching a projected low point of 63 percent of the next year’s annual program cost in 

2051. While this is somewhat below the general target level of a 100-percent contingency 

reserve, it is still substantial and indicates a high likelihood of solvency through 2051. After 

2051, the projected trust fund ratio rises steadily, reaching 250 percent of annual program cost at 

the beginning of 2084. The actuarial deficit for the OASDI program over the 75-year projection 

period would be improved by an estimated 2.08 percent of taxable payroll, from an actuarial 

deficit of 1.92 percent of payroll projected under current law to a positive actuarial balance of 

0.16 percent of payroll under the Bill. 

The annual balance for the OASDI program (non-interest income minus cost) would be negative 

for years 2015 through 2052, but annual deficits would be substantially smaller than under 

current law. After 2052, annual balances are projected to be positive under the Bill reaching a 

positive level of about 0.5 percent of taxable payroll for years 2060 through 2085. 

Program Transfers and Assets

Column 5 of table 1a provides a projection of asset level for the combined OASI and DI Trust 

Funds under the Bill, expressed in present discounted value to January 1, 2010 dollars. For 

purpose of comparison, the net OASDI Trust Fund assets, expressed in present-value dollars, are 

also shown for a theoretical Social Security program where borrowing authority is assumed for 

the Trust Funds. Columns 1 through 3 are all zeros because no General Fund transfers are 

specified in this Bill. Gross Domestic Product, expressed in present value dollars, is shown in 

column 6 for comparison with other values in the table. 

Effect on the Federal Budget and Debt

Table 1b shows the projected effects of enactment of this Bill, in present value discounted 

dollars, on (1) the Federal unified budget and on-budget annual balances, and (2) the levels of 

publicly held debt and total Federal debt. Table 1b.n provides the estimated nominal-dollar 

effects of enactment of the Bill for years 2010 through 2019. All values in these tables represent 
9

the amount of the change that would be expected due to enactment of the Bill, from the level that 

would be projected under current law. 

The OASDI program is accounted for on an off-budget basis in the Federal Budget and therefore 

has no direct net effect on the on-budget expenditures or balances. In addition, the OASDI 

program has no direct net effect on the total Federal debt liability, which is comprised of publicly 

held debt plus debt owed to the Federal trust funds. Any accumulated assets in the trust funds, 

which are liabilities of the U.S. Treasury, would instead be borrowed from and owed to the 

public if the trust funds had not run net surpluses over past years. Any changes in OASDI cash 

flow from this or other OASDI legislation therefore have no net direct effect on total Federal 

debt, or on on-budget annual balances. The exception would be a provision that provides 

specified transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury to the trust funds. Such transfers 

would represent a decrease in the on-budget balance and an increase in the total Federal Debt. 

As there are no such transfers specified in this Bill, values in columns (6) and (7) of tables 1b 

and 1b.n are zero for this Bill. 

However, when the on-budget and off-budget operations are considered on a “unified” basis, as 

is often the case, any changes in OASDI cash flow (non-interest income and cost) generally 

translate directly into cash-flow effects on the unified budget, and accumulated effects on that 

portion of total Federal debt that is borrowed from the public. The extent to which OASDI 

annual cash-flow surpluses and deficits influence other federal spending and tax levels is 

speculative and is not addressed in this analysis. 

The effect of the plan on OASDI program cash flow (column 2) and on unified budget cash flow 

(column 3) is expected to be positive throughout the long-range period. Column 4 provides the 

projected effect of implementing the plan on the Federal debt held by the public. Column 5 

provides the projected effect on the annual unified budget balances, including both the cash flow 

effect in column 3 and the additional interest on the accumulated debt indicated in column 4. 

The projected reduction in publicly held debt under this Bill by the end of 2084 of $6.2 trillion in 

present value is exactly equal to the change shown in table 1a, from an OASDI unfunded 

obligation of $5.4 trillion through 2084 to a projected positive OASDI Trust Fund asset level of 

$0.8 trillion at the end of 2084. Thus, under budget scoring convention (which assumes the 

OASDI Trust Funds can and would borrow $5.4 trillion from the General Fund of the Treasury 

through 2084, even though this is not allowed under the law), the total federal debt would be 

unaffected by the Bill. The $6.2 trillion of debt owed to the public would be replaced by a net 

increase in the amount owed to the trust funds of $6.2 trillion. It is important to note that these 

estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report and thus are not 

consistent with estimates made by the OMB or the CBO based on their assumptions. 

Annual Trust Fund Operations as a Percent of GDP

Table 1c provides annual cost, annual expenditures (on a payable basis), and annual non-interest 

income, for the OASDI program expressed as a percentage of GDP. These values are shown for 

both present-law and assuming enactment of the Bill. Showing the annual trust fund flows as a 
10

percent of GDP provides an additional perspective on these trust fund operations in relation to 

the total value of goods and services produced in the United States.

Effects on Trust Fund Assets and Unfunded Obligations

Table 1d provides estimates of the changes due to the Bill in the level of projected trust fund 

assets under present law and, for years after trust fund exhaustion, the level of unfunded 

obligations under present law. All values in the table are expressed in present-value discounted 

dollars. For the 75-year long-range period as a whole, the present-law unfunded obligation of 

$5.4 trillion in present value is replaced with a positive trust fund balance of $0.8 trillion in 

present value through the end of the period. This change is the combination of the following: 

• A $0.2 trillion net decrease in income from the two provisions of the Bill (column 2). 

Revenue from taxation of Social Security benefits is reduced due to diminished benefit 

levels under the Bill provisions. However, this reduction is partially offset by expected 

increased payroll tax revenue from raising the EEA and NRA (individuals working 

more at older ages).

• A $6.4 trillion decrease in cost from the two provisions of the Bill that affect OASDI 

benefits (column 3).

We hope these estimates will be helpful. Please let me know if we may provide further 

assistance.

 Sincerely,

Stephen C. Goss, Chief Actuary

 Alice H. Wade, Deputy Chief Actuary

 Christopher J. Chaplain, Supervisory Actuary

Enclosures 
Table A--Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of S.804, “The Social Security Solvency 

and Sustainability Act”

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1/

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

in 75th year 2/

(as a percent of payroll)

1) Increase the normal retirement age (NRA) 3 months per year 

starting in 2017 until reaching 70 for those attaining age 62 in 

2032. Then increase the NRA 1 month every 2 years 

thereafter. Note that the NRA would increase from 66 to 67 faster 

than under current law. Increase the earliest eligibility age (EEA) 

from 62 to 64 at the same time the NRA would increase from 67 to 

69; that is, for those attaining age 62 in 2021 through 2028. Keep 

EEA at 64 thereafter. Keep years in which delayed retirement 

credits can be earned at 4 years after attaining NRA. ........................ 1.36 2.90

2) Progressive price indexing of PIA formula factors for 

individuals newly eligible for OASI benefits in 2018 through 2055. 

Create new bend point at the 40th percentile of career-average 

earnings for new retirees. Maintain current-law benefit credit for 

career-average earnings up to the 40th percentile. Reduce PIA

formula factors (32% and 15%) that apply above the new bend 

point such that the maximum worker benefit grows with price

inflation from one generation to the next rather than with growth in 

the average wage. Disability (DI) benefits are not affected by the 

proposal. Disabled worker beneficiaries, upon attaining normal 

retirement age, would be subject to a proportional reduction in 

benefits based on the worker's years of disability. Hold harmless 

from this provision young survivors (children of deceased workers 

and surviving spouses with a child in care)......................................... 0.91 2.35

Total for provisions 1-2 .......................................................... 2.08 4.65

1/ Under current law, the long-range OASDI actuarial balance is estimated at -1.92 percent of taxable payroll.

2/ Under current law, the estimated 75th year annual balance is -4.12 percent of taxable payroll.

Notes: All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2010 OASDI Trustees Report. 

 Estimates of individual provisions appear on a stand-alone basis relative to current law, unless otherwise stated.

SSA/Office of the Chief Actuary

April 13, 2011
Year Progressive Longevity

Attain Price Index NRA

Age 65 (Wage Indexed (Constant Indexing4 1 Mth/ 2 Yrs5 Total Scheduled Payable

2010 Dollars) 2010 Dollars)

 

2010 648 648

2030 579 758 0.0 -12.0 -12.0 88 88

2050 580 959 0.0 -22.3 -22.3 78 97

2080 580 1,341 0.0 -28.8 -28.8 71 94

 

2010 648 648

2030 579 758 0.0 -12.0 -12.0 88 88

2050 580 959 0.0 -22.3 -22.3 78 97

2080 580 1,341 0.0 -28.8 -28.8 71 94

 

2010 648 648

2030 579 758 0.0 -12.0 -12.0 88 88

2050 580 959 0.0 -22.3 -22.3 78 97

2080 580 1,341 0.0 -28.8 -28.8 71 94

2010 848 848

2030 758 992 0.0 -12.0 -12.0 88 88

2050 758 1,255 0.0 -22.3 -22.3 78 97

2080 758 1,754 0.0 -28.8 -28.8 71 94

2010 848 848

2030 758 992 0.0 -12.0 -12.0 88 88

2050 758 1,255 0.0 -22.3 -22.3 78 97

2080 758 1,754 0.0 -28.8 -28.8 71 94

2010 848 848

2030 758 992 0.0 -12.0 -12.0 88 88

2050 758 1,255 0.0 -22.3 -22.3 78 97

2080 758 1,754 0.0 -28.8 -28.8 71 94

2010 1,397 1,397

2030 1,248 1,634 -4.5 -12.0 -16.0 84 84

2050 1,249 2,068 -12.0 -22.3 -31.6 68 86

2080 1,249 2,889 -14.5 -28.8 -39.1 61 80

2010 1,397 1,397

2030 1,248 1,634 -4.5 -12.0 -16.0 84 84

2050 1,249 2,068 -12.0 -22.3 -31.6 68 86

2080 1,249 2,889 -14.5 -28.8 -39.1 61 80

2010 1,851 1,851

2030 1,654 2,166 -8.8 -12.0 -19.8 80 80

2050 1,656 2,740 -23.6 -22.3 -40.6 59 74

2080 1,656 3,829 -28.4 -28.8 -49.0 51 67

2010 2,192 2,192

2030 2,021 2,646 -11.2 -12.0 -21.9 78 78

2050 2,020 3,343 -30.0 -22.3 -45.6 54 68

2080 2,019 4,668 -36.1 -28.8 -54.4 46 60

1 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2010.

2 Projected percent of new retired worker awards in 2050 closest to AIME levels and years of work.

3 After trust fund exhaustion under present law continuing taxes are expected to be enough to pay about three fourths of scheduled benefits.

4

5

The EEA increases under this proposal. For these illustrations, we assume the indexing year and the computation period remain as in current law - the indexing year is the year

the worker reaches age 60 and the computation period is 35 years.

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report.

Low-AIME ($19,388 for 20101

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (13.0% of Retirees2)

Monthly Benefits3 Percent of Present Law:

April 13, 2011

(Percent change) (Percents)

Maximum-AIME ($106,800 for 20101) Steady Earner (5.4% of Retirees2)

Very-Low-AIME ($10,771 for 20101

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (8.1% of Retirees2)

Very-Low-AIME ($10,771 for 20101

) 20-Year Scaled Earner (6.0% of Retirees2)

Very-Low-AIME ($10,771 for 20101) 14-Year Scaled Earner (5.3% of Retirees2

)

Table B1. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Beginning Benefit Receipt at age 65 

S.804, “The Social Security Solvency and Sustainability Act”

Scheduled Benefit Level Percent Change at age 65

Present Law Scheduled Proposal Scheduled Benefit

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration

Progressive Price Indexing starting for those newly eligible in 2018, holding harmless the lowest 40% of career-average earners. Reductions for indexing would continue through 

2055, and then stay fixed.

Low-AIME ($19,388 for 20101) 30-Year Scaled Earner (7.1% of Retirees2)

Low-AIME ($19,388 for 20101) 20-Year Scaled Earner (2.9% of Retirees2)

Medium-AIME ($43,084 for 20101

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (27.0% of Retirees2)

Medium-AIME ($43,084 for 20101

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (4.4% of Retirees2)

High-AIME ($68,934 for 20101

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (20.7% of Retirees2

)

Beginning in 2017, increase NRA 3 months per year until 70; then increase NRA 1 month every 2 years. Increase EEA (in step with NRA 67 to 69 increase) until 64.
Year 

Attain

Age 65 Age 65 Age 75 Age 85 Age 95

2010

2030 88.0 88.0 88.0 88.0

2050 77.7 77.7 77.7 77.7

2080 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3

2010

2030 88.0 88.0 88.0 88.0

2050 77.7 77.7 77.7 77.7

2080 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3

2010

2030 88.0 88.0 88.0 88.0

2050 77.7 77.7 77.7 77.7

2080 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3

2010

2030 88.0 88.0 88.0 88.0

2050 77.7 77.7 77.7 77.7

2080 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3

2010

2030 88.0 88.0 88.0 88.0

2050 77.7 77.7 77.7 77.7

2080 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3

2010

2030 88.0 88.0 88.0 88.0

2050 77.7 77.7 77.7 77.7

2080 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3

2010

2030 84.0 84.0 84.0 84.0

2050 68.4 68.4 68.4 68.4

2080 60.9 60.9 60.9 60.9

2010

2030 84.0 84.0 84.0 84.0

2050 68.4 68.4 68.4 68.4

2080 60.9 60.9 60.9 60.9

2010

2030 80.2 80.2 80.2 80.2

2050 59.4 59.4 59.4 59.4

2080 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0

2010

2030 78.1 78.1 78.1 78.1

2050 54.4 54.4 54.4 54.4

2080 45.6 45.6 45.6 45.6

1 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2010.

2 Projected percent of new retired worker awards in 2050 closest to AIME levels and years of work.

Other Changes: 

-

-

The EEA increases under this proposal. For these illustrations, we assume the indexing year and the computation period remain as in current law - the indexing year is the year the worker reaches age 60

and the computation period is 35 years.

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Adminstration April 13, 2011

Maximum-AIME ($106,800 for 20101

) Steady Earner (5.4% of Retirees2)

Progressive Price Indexing starting for those newly eligible in 2018, holding harmless the lowest 40% of career-average earners. Reductions for indexing would continue through 2055, and then stay fixed.

Medium-AIME ($43,084 for 20101) 30-Year Scaled Earner (4.4% of Retirees2)

High-AIME ($68,934 for 20101) 44-Year Scaled Earner (20.7% of Retirees2)

Beginning in 2017, increase NRA 3 months per year until 70; then increase NRA 1 month every 2 years. Increase EEA (in step with NRA 67 to 69 increase) until 64.

Proposal Benefit as Percent of Present Law Scheduled

(Percents)

Very-Low-AIME ($10,771 for 20101) 14-Year Scaled Earner (5.3% of Retirees2

)

Low-AIME ($19,388 for 20101) 20-Year Scaled Earner (2.9% of Retirees2)

Medium-AIME ($43,084 for 20101) 44-Year Scaled Earner (27.0% of Retirees2)

Very-Low-AIME ($10,771 for 20101

) 20-Year Scaled Earner (6.0% of Retirees2)

Very-Low-AIME ($10,771 for 20101

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (8.1% of Retirees2)

Low-AIME ($19,388 for 20101

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (7.1% of Retirees2)

Low-AIME ($19,388 for 20101

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (13.0% of Retirees2)

Table B2. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Beginning Benefit Receipt at age 65 

S.804, “The Social Security Solvency and Sustainability Act”
Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2010 13.09 12.33 -0.76 355 0.00 0.00 0.00

2011 13.04 12.91 -0.12 353 0.00 0.00 0.00

2012 12.84 12.87 0.03 350 0.00 0.00 0.00

2013 12.82 12.90 0.08 346 0.00 0.00 0.00

2014 12.86 12.92 0.06 341 0.00 0.00 0.00

2015 12.98 12.94 -0.04 335 0.00 0.00 0.00

2016 13.10 12.96 -0.14 330 0.00 0.00 0.00

2017 13.28 12.99 -0.29 324 -0.02 0.00 0.02

2018 13.50 13.02 -0.48 318 -0.05 0.00 0.05

2019 13.76 13.03 -0.72 311 -0.08 0.01 0.09

2020 14.03 13.05 -0.97 303 -0.12 0.01 0.13

2021 14.29 13.08 -1.22 294 -0.16 0.01 0.17

2022 14.54 13.09 -1.45 284 -0.21 0.01 0.22

2023 14.77 13.11 -1.66 274 -0.26 0.01 0.27

2024 14.98 13.13 -1.85 262 -0.31 0.01 0.32

2025 15.17 13.14 -2.02 251 -0.37 0.01 0.38

2026 15.28 13.15 -2.12 239 -0.48 0.01 0.49

2027 15.35 13.16 -2.19 227 -0.61 0.00 0.61

2028 15.40 13.17 -2.22 216 -0.74 0.00 0.74

2029 15.41 13.18 -2.23 204 -0.87 0.00 0.87

2030 15.39 13.18 -2.21 193 -1.01 -0.01 1.01

2031 15.33 13.19 -2.15 182 -1.17 -0.01 1.16

2032 15.26 13.19 -2.08 171 -1.33 -0.02 1.31

2033 15.19 13.19 -2.00 161 -1.47 -0.03 1.44

2034 15.10 13.19 -1.91 151 -1.60 -0.03 1.57

2035 15.00 13.19 -1.81 141 -1.73 -0.04 1.69

2036 14.88 13.18 -1.70 132 -1.85 -0.04 1.81

2037 14.77 13.18 -1.59 123 -1.97 -0.05 1.92

2038 14.64 13.17 -1.47 115 -2.07 -0.06 2.01

2039 14.52 13.17 -1.35 107 -2.16 -0.06 2.10

2040 14.40 13.16 -1.23 100 -2.24 -0.06 2.18

2041 14.29 13.16 -1.13 94 -2.31 -0.07 2.24

2042 14.18 13.16 -1.02 88 -2.38 -0.07 2.31

2043 14.06 13.15 -0.91 83 -2.45 -0.08 2.37

2044 13.95 13.15 -0.81 78 -2.52 -0.08 2.44

2045 13.85 13.14 -0.71 74 -2.59 -0.08 2.51

2046 13.75 13.14 -0.61 71 -2.67 -0.09 2.58

2047 13.65 13.14 -0.51 68 -2.75 -0.09 2.66

2048 13.55 13.14 -0.42 65 -2.82 -0.09 2.73

2049 13.45 13.13 -0.32 64 -2.90 -0.09 2.81

2050 13.36 13.13 -0.23 63 -2.97 -0.09 2.88

2051 13.25 13.13 -0.13 63 -3.07 -0.10 2.97

2052 13.18 13.13 -0.05 63 -3.15 -0.10 3.05

2053 13.05 13.12 0.07 64 -3.28 -0.11 3.17

2054 12.97 13.12 0.15 66 -3.38 -0.11 3.27

2055 12.87 13.11 0.24 69 -3.50 -0.12 3.38

2056 12.81 13.11 0.30 72 -3.59 -0.12 3.46

2057 12.73 13.11 0.37 76 -3.68 -0.13 3.55

2058 12.69 13.10 0.42 80 -3.75 -0.13 3.62

2059 12.63 13.10 0.48 85 -3.83 -0.14 3.70

2060 12.60 13.10 0.50 90 -3.89 -0.14 3.74

2061 12.56 13.10 0.54 95 -3.95 -0.15 3.80

2062 12.55 13.10 0.55 101 -3.99 -0.15 3.84

2063 12.52 13.09 0.58 107 -4.04 -0.15 3.89

2064 12.51 13.09 0.58 113 -4.08 -0.16 3.92

2065 12.49 13.09 0.61 120 -4.13 -0.16 3.97

2066 12.49 13.09 0.60 126 -4.16 -0.16 3.99

2067 12.48 13.09 0.61 133 -4.20 -0.17 4.04

2068 12.49 13.09 0.60 139 -4.23 -0.17 4.06

2069 12.49 13.09 0.61 146 -4.28 -0.17 4.11

2070 12.50 13.10 0.59 152 -4.30 -0.17 4.13

2071 12.50 13.10 0.59 159 -4.35 -0.17 4.17

2072 12.52 13.10 0.58 166 -4.37 -0.17 4.20

2073 12.52 13.10 0.58 173 -4.42 -0.18 4.24

2074 12.54 13.10 0.56 179 -4.44 -0.18 4.26

2075 12.54 13.10 0.56 186 -4.48 -0.18 4.31

2076 12.56 13.10 0.54 193 -4.51 -0.18 4.33

2077 12.56 13.10 0.55 200 -4.56 -0.18 4.37

2078 12.57 13.11 0.53 206 -4.59 -0.18 4.40

2079 12.56 13.11 0.54 214 -4.64 -0.19 4.46

2080 12.57 13.11 0.54 221 -4.68 -0.19 4.49

2081 12.54 13.11 0.56 228 -4.75 -0.19 4.56

2082 12.55 13.11 0.56 236 -4.79 -0.19 4.59

2083 12.55 13.11 0.56 243 -4.83 -0.20 4.64

2084 12.58 13.11 0.53 250 -4.85 -0.20 4.65

2085 12.58 13.11 0.53 258 -4.89 -0.20 4.69

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

13.77% 13.94% 0.16% N/A -2.16% -0.07% 2.08%

1 Under present law the year of exhaustion is 2037

Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

Proposal

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll

Change in Present Law

S.804, “The Social Security Solvency and Sustainability Act”

Year of 

Exhaustion1

Summarized Rates: OASDI

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report

April 13, 2011

Summarized Rates: OASDI

2010 - 2084

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration
Percentage

of Payroll

Annual

Amounts

Accumulated as of 

End of Year

Gross Domestic 

Product

Without General

Fund Transfers

With Plan General

Fund Transfers

(1) (2) (3) (5) (6) (7) (8)

2010 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,500.1 14,440.7 2,500.1 2,500.1

2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,493.9 14,447.1 2,493.9 2,493.9

2012 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,495.8 14,629.9 2,495.8 2,495.8

2013 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,500.7 14,850.2 2,500.7 2,500.7

2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,504.4 15,008.0 2,504.4 2,504.4

2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,502.6 15,093.9 2,502.6 2,502.6

2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,495.2 15,113.0 2,495.2 2,495.2

2017 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,479.3 15,084.7 2,478.0 2,478.0

2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,452.9 14,993.3 2,448.8 2,448.8

2019 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,413.3 14,866.6 2,404.4 2,404.4

2020 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,360.2 14,744.5 2,344.3 2,344.3

2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,294.4 14,612.8 2,269.2 2,269.2

2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,217.0 14,470.7 2,180.2 2,180.2

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,129.2 14,322.0 2,078.2 2,078.2

2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,032.5 14,168.7 1,964.7 1,964.7

2025 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,928.1 14,006.1 1,840.6 1,840.6

2026 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,820.0 13,848.9 1,707.4 1,707.4

2027 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,710.0 13,695.6 1,566.5 1,566.5

2028 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,599.4 13,543.6 1,419.1 1,419.1

2029 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,489.9 13,388.7 1,266.6 1,266.6

2030 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,382.9 13,238.7 1,110.5 1,110.5

2031 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,280.2 13,096.4 951.9 951.9

2032 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,181.9 12,955.3 791.4 791.4

2033 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,088.3 12,814.6 629.9 629.9

2034 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,000.0 12,675.9 468.5 468.5

2035 0.0 0.0 0.0 917.2 12,539.7 308.0 308.0

2036 0.0 0.0 0.0 840.5 12,408.4 149.0 149.0

2037 0.0 0.0 0.0 769.7 12,278.7 -8.0 -8.0

2038 0.0 0.0 0.0 705.0 12,153.7 -162.2 -162.2

2039 0.0 0.0 0.0 646.3 12,027.7 -313.2 -313.2

2040 0.0 0.0 0.0 593.4 11,899.8 -460.8 -460.8

2041 0.0 0.0 0.0 545.6 11,774.2 -604.7 -604.7

2042 0.0 0.0 0.0 503.0 11,649.7 -745.2 -745.2

2043 0.0 0.0 0.0 465.4 11,526.1 -882.3 -882.3

2044 0.0 0.0 0.0 432.5 11,403.5 -1,016.3 -1,016.3

2045 0.0 0.0 0.0 404.2 11,281.3 -1,147.4 -1,147.4

2046 0.0 0.0 0.0 380.2 11,159.4 -1,275.9 -1,275.9

2047 0.0 0.0 0.0 360.4 11,036.6 -1,402.0 -1,402.0

2048 0.0 0.0 0.0 344.5 10,914.9 -1,525.6 -1,525.6

2049 0.0 0.0 0.0 332.6 10,794.6 -1,646.9 -1,646.9

2050 0.0 0.0 0.0 324.4 10,674.1 -1,766.0 -1,766.0

2051 0.0 0.0 0.0 320.2 10,553.6 -1,883.2 -1,883.2

2052 0.0 0.0 0.0 318.9 10,434.0 -1,998.9 -1,998.9

2053 0.0 0.0 0.0 321.9 10,314.8 -2,113.3 -2,113.3

2054 0.0 0.0 0.0 328.0 10,196.3 -2,226.8 -2,226.8

2055 0.0 0.0 0.0 337.3 10,078.9 -2,339.4 -2,339.4

2056 0.0 0.0 0.0 348.7 9,963.1 -2,451.4 -2,451.4

2057 0.0 0.0 0.0 362.5 9,849.3 -2,562.8 -2,562.8

2058 0.0 0.0 0.0 377.5 9,737.3 -2,673.5 -2,673.5

2059 0.0 0.0 0.0 394.4 9,627.1 -2,783.4 -2,783.4

2060 0.0 0.0 0.0 412.0 9,517.7 -2,892.7 -2,892.7

2061 0.0 0.0 0.0 430.5 9,409.2 -3,001.2 -3,001.2

2062 0.0 0.0 0.0 449.2 9,301.9 -3,109.2 -3,109.2

2063 0.0 0.0 0.0 468.6 9,196.0 -3,216.6 -3,216.6

2064 0.0 0.0 0.0 487.9 9,091.8 -3,323.4 -3,323.4

2065 0.0 0.0 0.0 507.7 8,988.7 -3,429.7 -3,429.7

2066 0.0 0.0 0.0 527.0 8,886.5 -3,535.7 -3,535.7

2067 0.0 0.0 0.0 546.4 8,785.3 -3,641.4 -3,641.4

2068 0.0 0.0 0.0 565.2 8,685.0 -3,746.7 -3,746.7

2069 0.0 0.0 0.0 584.0 8,585.5 -3,851.9 -3,851.9

2070 0.0 0.0 0.0 602.0 8,487.0 -3,956.9 -3,956.9

2071 0.0 0.0 0.0 620.0 8,388.8 -4,061.7 -4,061.7

2072 0.0 0.0 0.0 637.2 8,292.1 -4,166.3 -4,166.3

2073 0.0 0.0 0.0 654.2 8,196.2 -4,270.8 -4,270.8

2074 0.0 0.0 0.0 670.4 8,101.5 -4,375.1 -4,375.1

2075 0.0 0.0 0.0 686.5 8,007.1 -4,479.3 -4,479.3

2076 0.0 0.0 0.0 701.8 7,913.4 -4,583.2 -4,583.2

2077 0.0 0.0 0.0 717.1 7,820.3 -4,687.0 -4,687.0

2078 0.0 0.0 0.0 731.9 7,727.4 -4,790.5 -4,790.5

2079 0.0 0.0 0.0 746.7 7,635.8 -4,893.8 -4,893.8

2080 0.0 0.0 0.0 761.1 7,545.2 -4,996.9 -4,996.9

2081 0.0 0.0 0.0 776.0 7,455.5 -5,099.6 -5,099.6

2082 0.0 0.0 0.0 790.6 7,366.6 -5,202.1 -5,202.1

2083 0.0 0.0 0.0 805.1 7,278.4 -5,304.4 -5,304.4

2084 0.0 0.0 0.0 818.7 7,191.1 -5,406.3 -5,406.3

Total 2010-2084 0.0

Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report Office of the Chief Actuary

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9% Social Security Administration

April 13, 2011

Proposal

Total OASDI

Trust Fund

Assets 

at End of Year

Theoretical Social Security1

with Borrowing Authority

Present Value in Billions as of 1-1- 2010 Net OASDI Trust Fund Assets at End of Year

1

 Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption

 that the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury.

Table 1a - General Fund Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Assets, and Theoretical OASDI Assets

S.804, “The Social Security Solvency and Sustainability Act”

Calendar

Year

Proposal General Fund Transfers Present Value in Billions as of 1-1-2010
Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2010 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2012 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2013 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2017 0.0 1.3 1.3 -1.3 1.3 0.0 0.0

2018 0.0 2.8 2.8 -4.1 2.9 0.0 0.0

2019 0.0 4.8 4.8 -8.9 5.0 0.0 0.0

2020 0.0 7.0 7.0 -15.9 7.4 0.0 0.0

2021 0.0 9.2 9.2 -25.1 10.1 0.0 0.0

2022 0.0 11.6 11.6 -36.8 13.0 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 14.2 14.2 -50.9 16.2 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 16.9 16.9 -67.8 19.7 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 19.7 19.7 -87.5 23.4 0.0 0.0

2026 0.0 25.1 25.1 -112.6 29.8 0.0 0.0

2027 0.0 30.9 30.9 -143.5 37.1 0.0 0.0

2028 0.0 36.8 36.8 -180.3 44.7 0.0 0.0

2029 0.0 42.9 42.9 -223.2 52.8 0.0 0.0

2030 0.0 49.1 49.1 -272.4 61.3 0.0 0.0

2031 0.0 56.0 56.0 -328.3 70.8 0.0 0.0

2032 0.0 62.2 62.2 -390.5 80.2 0.0 0.0

2033 0.0 67.9 67.9 -458.4 89.3 0.0 0.0

2034 0.0 73.1 73.1 -531.5 98.1 0.0 0.0

2035 0.0 77.7 77.7 -609.2 106.8 0.0 0.0

2036 0.0 82.3 82.3 -691.5 115.6 0.0 0.0

2037 0.0 86.2 86.2 -777.7 124.0 0.0 0.0

2038 0.0 89.5 89.5 -867.2 132.0 0.0 0.0

2039 0.0 92.3 92.3 -959.5 139.7 0.0 0.0

2040 0.0 94.7 94.7 -1,054.1 147.1 0.0 0.0

2041 0.0 96.2 96.2 -1,150.4 153.8 0.0 0.0

2042 0.0 97.8 97.8 -1,248.2 160.7 0.0 0.0

2043 0.0 99.5 99.5 -1,347.7 167.7 0.0 0.0

2044 0.0 101.1 101.1 -1,448.8 174.8 0.0 0.0

2045 0.0 102.8 102.8 -1,551.6 182.0 0.0 0.0

2046 0.0 104.5 104.5 -1,656.1 189.3 0.0 0.0

2047 0.0 106.2 106.2 -1,762.3 196.7 0.0 0.0

2048 0.0 107.8 107.8 -1,870.2 204.2 0.0 0.0

2049 0.0 109.4 109.4 -1,979.6 211.6 0.0 0.0

2050 0.0 110.8 110.8 -2,090.4 219.0 0.0 0.0

2051 0.0 113.0 113.0 -2,203.4 227.2 0.0 0.0

2052 0.0 114.3 114.3 -2,317.7 234.8 0.0 0.0

2053 0.0 117.5 117.5 -2,435.2 244.2 0.0 0.0

2054 0.0 119.6 119.6 -2,554.8 252.7 0.0 0.0

2055 0.0 122.0 122.0 -2,676.8 261.6 0.0 0.0

2056 0.0 123.4 123.4 -2,800.1 269.7 0.0 0.0

2057 0.0 125.1 125.1 -2,925.2 278.1 0.0 0.0

2058 0.0 125.8 125.8 -3,051.0 285.6 0.0 0.0

2059 0.0 126.8 126.8 -3,177.8 293.5 0.0 0.0

2060 0.0 126.9 126.9 -3,304.6 300.5 0.0 0.0

2061 0.0 127.1 127.1 -3,431.8 307.7 0.0 0.0

2062 0.0 126.7 126.7 -3,558.4 314.2 0.0 0.0

2063 0.0 126.8 126.8 -3,685.2 321.2 0.0 0.0

2064 0.0 126.1 126.1 -3,811.3 327.6 0.0 0.0

2065 0.0 126.1 126.1 -3,937.4 334.4 0.0 0.0

2066 0.0 125.3 125.3 -4,062.7 340.5 0.0 0.0

2067 0.0 125.1 125.1 -4,187.8 347.1 0.0 0.0

2068 0.0 124.2 124.2 -4,312.0 353.1 0.0 0.0

2069 0.0 123.9 123.9 -4,435.9 359.6 0.0 0.0

2070 0.0 123.0 123.0 -4,558.9 365.5 0.0 0.0

2071 0.0 122.7 122.7 -4,681.6 371.9 0.0 0.0

2072 0.0 121.8 121.8 -4,803.4 377.7 0.0 0.0

2073 0.0 121.5 121.5 -4,924.9 384.0 0.0 0.0

2074 0.0 120.6 120.6 -5,045.5 389.7 0.0 0.0

2075 0.0 120.2 120.2 -5,165.7 396.0 0.0 0.0

2076 0.0 119.3 119.3 -5,285.0 401.6 0.0 0.0

2077 0.0 119.0 119.0 -5,404.1 407.9 0.0 0.0

2078 0.0 118.3 118.3 -5,522.4 413.6 0.0 0.0

2079 0.0 118.1 118.1 -5,640.5 420.0 0.0 0.0

2080 0.0 117.5 117.5 -5,758.0 425.7 0.0 0.0

2081 0.0 117.7 117.7 -5,875.7 432.4 0.0 0.0

2082 0.0 117.1 117.1 -5,992.8 438.2 0.0 0.0

2083 0.0 116.7 116.7 -6,109.5 444.2 0.0 0.0

2084 0.0 115.5 115.5 -6,225.0 449.4 0.0 0.0

0.0 6,225.0 6,225.0

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9% Social Security Administration

Table 1b - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1

 (Present Value Dollars)

April 13, 2011

1

 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table.

Total 2010-84

S.804, “The Social Security Solvency and Sustainability Act”

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2010
Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2010 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2012 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2013 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2017 0.0 1.8 1.8 -1.8 1.8 0.0 0.0

2018 0.0 4.3 4.3 -6.3 4.5 0.0 0.0

2019 0.0 7.6 7.6 -14.5 8.2 0.0 0.0

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

April 13, 2011

S.804, “The Social Security Solvency and Sustainability Act”

1

 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table.

Billions of Nominal Dollars

Table 1b.n - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1 (Nominal Dollars)
Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

2010 4.84 4.84 4.56 4.84 4.84 4.56

2011 4.80 4.80 4.75 4.80 4.80 4.75

2012 4.76 4.76 4.77 4.76 4.76 4.77

2013 4.75 4.75 4.78 4.75 4.75 4.78

2014 4.78 4.78 4.80 4.78 4.78 4.80

2015 4.83 4.83 4.81 4.83 4.83 4.81

2016 4.90 4.90 4.84 4.90 4.90 4.84

2017 4.98 4.98 4.86 4.97 4.97 4.86

2018 5.08 5.08 4.88 5.07 5.07 4.89

2019 5.20 5.20 4.89 5.17 5.17 4.89

2020 5.30 5.30 4.89 5.26 5.26 4.89

2021 5.41 5.41 4.89 5.35 5.35 4.89

2022 5.51 5.51 4.88 5.43 5.43 4.89

2023 5.60 5.60 4.88 5.50 5.50 4.88

2024 5.68 5.68 4.88 5.57 5.57 4.88

2025 5.77 5.77 4.87 5.63 5.63 4.88

2026 5.84 5.84 4.87 5.66 5.66 4.87

2027 5.90 5.90 4.87 5.68 5.68 4.87

2028 5.96 5.96 4.87 5.69 5.69 4.87

2029 6.01 6.01 4.87 5.69 5.69 4.86

2030 6.05 6.05 4.86 5.67 5.67 4.86

2031 6.08 6.08 4.86 5.65 5.65 4.86

2032 6.10 6.10 4.86 5.62 5.62 4.85

2033 6.12 6.12 4.86 5.58 5.58 4.85

2034 6.13 6.13 4.85 5.55 5.55 4.84

2035 6.14 6.14 4.85 5.50 5.50 4.84

2036 6.14 6.14 4.85 5.46 5.46 4.83

2037 6.13 6.06 4.84 5.41 5.41 4.83

2038 6.11 4.84 4.84 5.36 5.36 4.82

2039 6.10 4.84 4.84 5.31 5.31 4.81

2040 6.08 4.83 4.83 5.26 5.26 4.81

2041 6.05 4.83 4.83 5.21 5.21 4.80

2042 6.03 4.82 4.82 5.17 5.17 4.79

2043 6.01 4.81 4.81 5.12 5.12 4.79

2044 5.99 4.81 4.81 5.07 5.07 4.78

2045 5.97 4.80 4.80 5.03 5.03 4.77

2046 5.95 4.79 4.79 4.98 4.98 4.76

2047 5.94 4.79 4.79 4.94 4.94 4.76

2048 5.92 4.78 4.78 4.90 4.90 4.75

2049 5.91 4.78 4.78 4.86 4.86 4.74

2050 5.89 4.77 4.77 4.82 4.82 4.74

2051 5.88 4.76 4.76 4.77 4.77 4.73

2052 5.87 4.76 4.76 4.74 4.74 4.72

2053 5.87 4.75 4.75 4.69 4.69 4.71

2054 5.87 4.75 4.75 4.65 4.65 4.71

2055 5.87 4.74 4.74 4.61 4.61 4.70

2056 5.87 4.74 4.74 4.58 4.58 4.69

2057 5.87 4.73 4.73 4.55 4.55 4.68

2058 5.87 4.73 4.73 4.53 4.53 4.68

2059 5.87 4.72 4.72 4.50 4.50 4.67

2060 5.87 4.71 4.71 4.48 4.48 4.66

2061 5.87 4.71 4.71 4.47 4.47 4.66

2062 5.87 4.70 4.70 4.45 4.45 4.65

2063 5.87 4.70 4.70 4.44 4.44 4.64

2064 5.87 4.69 4.69 4.43 4.43 4.64

2065 5.88 4.69 4.69 4.42 4.42 4.63

2066 5.88 4.68 4.68 4.41 4.41 4.62

2067 5.88 4.67 4.67 4.40 4.40 4.62

2068 5.89 4.67 4.67 4.40 4.40 4.61

2069 5.89 4.66 4.66 4.39 4.39 4.60

2070 5.90 4.66 4.66 4.39 4.39 4.60

2071 5.91 4.65 4.65 4.38 4.38 4.59

2072 5.92 4.65 4.65 4.39 4.39 4.59

2073 5.92 4.64 4.64 4.38 4.38 4.58

2074 5.93 4.64 4.64 4.38 4.38 4.58

2075 5.94 4.63 4.63 4.38 4.38 4.57

2076 5.95 4.63 4.63 4.38 4.38 4.57

2077 5.96 4.62 4.62 4.37 4.37 4.56

2078 5.97 4.62 4.62 4.37 4.37 4.56

2079 5.97 4.62 4.62 4.36 4.36 4.55

2080 5.98 4.61 4.61 4.36 4.36 4.55

2081 5.99 4.61 4.61 4.35 4.35 4.54

2082 6.00 4.61 4.61 4.35 4.35 4.54

2083 6.01 4.60 4.60 4.34 4.34 4.53

2084 6.02 4.60 4.60 4.35 4.35 4.53

S.804, “The Social Security Solvency and Sustainability 

Table 1c - Present Law and Proposal Cost, Expenditures, and Income: As Percent of Gross Domestic Product

April 13, 2011

Social Security Administration

Present Law OASDI Proposal OASDI

Calendar

Year

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary
Year

Present Law OASDI

Trust Fund Assets /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Total Change

Through

End of Year

Proposal OASDI

Trust Fund Assets /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) = cumulative sum(4) (6) = (1)+(5)

2010 2,500.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,500.1

2011 2,493.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,493.9

2012 2,495.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,495.8

2013 2,500.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,500.7

2014 2,504.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,504.4

2015 2,502.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,502.6

2016 2,495.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,495.2

2017 2,478.0 0.1 -1.1 1.3 1.3 2,479.3

2018 2,448.8 0.2 -2.6 2.8 4.1 2,452.9

2019 2,404.4 0.3 -4.5 4.8 8.9 2,413.3

2020 2,344.3 0.4 -6.6 7.0 15.9 2,360.2

2021 2,269.2 0.5 -8.8 9.2 25.1 2,294.4

2022 2,180.2 0.5 -11.1 11.6 36.8 2,217.0

2023 2,078.2 0.5 -13.7 14.2 50.9 2,129.2

2024 1,964.7 0.5 -16.3 16.9 67.8 2,032.5

2025 1,840.6 0.5 -19.1 19.7 87.5 1,928.1

2026 1,707.4 0.4 -24.7 25.1 112.6 1,820.0

2027 1,566.5 0.2 -30.7 30.9 143.5 1,710.0

2028 1,419.1 0.0 -36.8 36.8 180.3 1,599.4

2029 1,266.6 -0.2 -43.1 42.9 223.2 1,489.9

2030 1,110.5 -0.4 -49.5 49.1 272.4 1,382.9

2031 951.9 -0.7 -56.7 56.0 328.3 1,280.2

2032 791.4 -1.0 -63.2 62.2 390.5 1,181.9

2033 629.9 -1.3 -69.2 67.9 458.4 1,088.3

2034 468.5 -1.5 -74.6 73.1 531.5 1,000.0

2035 308.0 -1.8 -79.5 77.7 609.2 917.2

2036 149.0 -2.1 -84.3 82.3 691.5 840.5

2037 -8.0 -2.3 -88.5 86.2 777.7 769.7

2038 -162.2 -2.5 -92.0 89.5 867.2 705.0

2039 -313.2 -2.7 -95.0 92.3 959.5 646.3

2040 -460.8 -2.9 -97.5 94.7 1,054.1 593.4

2041 -604.7 -3.0 -99.2 96.2 1,150.4 545.6

2042 -745.2 -3.1 -100.9 97.8 1,248.2 503.0

2043 -882.3 -3.2 -102.7 99.5 1,347.7 465.4

2044 -1,016.3 -3.4 -104.5 101.1 1,448.8 432.5

2045 -1,147.4 -3.5 -106.3 102.8 1,551.6 404.2

2046 -1,275.9 -3.5 -108.0 104.5 1,656.1 380.2

2047 -1,402.0 -3.5 -109.7 106.2 1,762.3 360.4

2048 -1,525.6 -3.6 -111.4 107.8 1,870.2 344.5

2049 -1,646.9 -3.6 -113.0 109.4 1,979.6 332.6

2050 -1,766.0 -3.7 -114.5 110.8 2,090.4 324.4

2051 -1,883.2 -3.8 -116.8 113.0 2,203.4 320.2

2052 -1,998.9 -3.8 -118.2 114.3 2,317.7 318.9

2053 -2,113.3 -4.0 -121.5 117.5 2,435.2 321.9

2054 -2,226.8 -4.2 -123.7 119.6 2,554.8 328.0

2055 -2,339.4 -4.3 -126.3 122.0 2,676.8 337.3

2056 -2,451.4 -4.5 -127.9 123.4 2,800.1 348.7

2057 -2,562.8 -4.6 -129.7 125.1 2,925.2 362.5

2058 -2,673.5 -4.7 -130.5 125.8 3,051.0 377.5

2059 -2,783.4 -4.8 -131.6 126.8 3,177.8 394.4

2060 -2,892.7 -4.9 -131.8 126.9 3,304.6 412.0

2061 -3,001.2 -5.0 -132.1 127.1 3,431.8 430.5

2062 -3,109.2 -5.0 -131.7 126.7 3,558.4 449.2

2063 -3,216.6 -5.1 -131.9 126.8 3,685.2 468.6

2064 -3,323.4 -5.1 -131.3 126.1 3,811.3 487.9

2065 -3,429.7 -5.2 -131.2 126.1 3,937.4 507.7

2066 -3,535.7 -5.2 -130.4 125.3 4,062.7 527.0

2067 -3,641.4 -5.2 -130.2 125.1 4,187.8 546.4

2068 -3,746.7 -5.2 -129.4 124.2 4,312.0 565.2

2069 -3,851.9 -5.2 -129.1 123.9 4,435.9 584.0

2070 -3,956.9 -5.2 -128.2 123.0 4,558.9 602.0

2071 -4,061.7 -5.2 -127.9 122.7 4,681.6 620.0

2072 -4,166.3 -5.1 -126.9 121.8 4,803.4 637.2

2073 -4,270.8 -5.1 -126.6 121.5 4,924.9 654.2

2074 -4,375.1 -5.1 -125.7 120.6 5,045.5 670.4

2075 -4,479.3 -5.1 -125.3 120.2 5,165.7 686.5

2076 -4,583.2 -5.0 -124.3 119.3 5,285.0 701.8

2077 -4,687.0 -5.0 -124.1 119.0 5,404.1 717.1

2078 -4,790.5 -5.0 -123.3 118.3 5,522.4 731.9

2079 -4,893.8 -5.0 -123.2 118.1 5,640.5 746.7

2080 -4,996.9 -5.0 -122.5 117.5 5,758.0 761.1

2081 -5,099.6 -5.0 -122.7 117.7 5,875.7 776.0

2082 -5,202.1 -5.0 -122.1 117.1 5,992.8 790.6

2083 -5,304.4 -5.0 -121.7 116.7 6,109.5 805.1

2084 -5,406.3 -4.9 -120.4 115.5 6,225.0 818.7

Total 2010-2084 -214.8 -6439.7 6225.0

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%. April 13, 2011

(Billions of Dollars, Present Value on 1-1-2010)

Table 1d - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Assets / Unfunded Obligation

S.804, “The Social Security Solvency and Sustainability Act”