Social Security

Memorandum

Date: April 6, 2004

To: Peter Ferrara

From: Steve Goss, Chief Actuary

Subject: Additional Estimated Financial Effects of “The 

Progressive Personal Account Plan” --

INFORMATION 

The attached tables 1e and 2e provide additional information that 

supplements the memorandum of December 1, 2003. 

All estimates in these tables are entirely consistent with estimates 

provided on December 1.

Specifically these tables provide a component breakdown of the 

estimates of total net cash flow from the OASDI trust funds to the 

General Fund of the Treasury. The total net cash flow estimates 

were provided in tables 1c and 2c earlier.

Total net cash flow from the trust funds to the general fund is 

shown in two components. The first is the cash flow due to the 

net amounts of the specified transfers to the trust funds under this 

proposal. The amounts of the specified transfers are detailed in 

columns (3), (4), and (5) of tables 1d and 2d provided earlier. 

Under the provisions of the proposal, net specified transfers to the 

trust funds are projected to occur in years 2005 through 2054 in 

table 1e with expected average yield assumptions, and in years 

2005 through beyond 2078 I table 2e with the low-yield 

assumptions.

The second component is the residual amount of cash flow due to 

the trust funds’ net purchase (or redemption) of assets held in the 

form of special-issue Treasury securities. Net purchases of 

Treasury securities are assumed to change to net redemptions 

starting in 2005, under the proposal. Net redemptions are 

projected to continue through 2028 under the expected average 

yield assumptions and through 2034 under the low-yield 

assumptions. After these years, the trust funds are expected to 
2

make no further net purchase or redemption of Treasury 

securities, on a cash flow basis. The trust funds, by the design of 

the proposal are then projected to grow solely through the 

reinvestment of interest credited on assets. 

 

Stephen C. Goss

Attachments
Table 1 e Ferrara Proposal --Components of Cash Flow from the Trust Funds to the General Fund of the Treasury 

Expected Cash Flow Due to Cash Flow for Total Cash Cash Flow Net Purchase

Average Total Cash Net Specified Net Purchase Flow to the Due to Net (Redemption)

Yield Flow to the Transfers under (Redemption) General Fund Specified of Treasury

General Fund the Proposal of Treasury Transfers Securities

(Tab c:col 3)(Tab d: (5)-(3)-(4)) Securities (= Columns (1) (2) (3) in Constant Dollars)

Year (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

(billions of PV$ 1/1/2003) (billions of constant 2003 dollars)

2003 76 76 78 78

2004 77 77 82 82

2005 -144 -14 -130 -159 -15 -144

2006 -154 -38 -115 -175 -44 -131

2007 -156 -63 -93 -183 -74 -109

2008 -161 -87 -74 -195 -105 -89

2009 -167 -111 -56 -209 -138 -70

2010 -173 -134 -40 -223 -172 -51

2011 -179 -156 -23 -237 -207 -30

2012 -185 -178 -8 -254 -243 -10

2013 -193 -181 -12 -272 -255 -17

2014 -200 -184 -16 -290 -267 -24

2015 -206 -186 -20 -309 -279 -30

2016 -212 -189 -24 -328 -291 -36

2017 -218 -192 -26 -346 -304 -42

2018 -223 -194 -28 -365 -318 -47

2019 -227 -197 -30 -382 -332 -50

2020 -230 -200 -30 -400 -347 -53

2021 -233 -202 -31 -417 -362 -55

2022 -235 -205 -30 -434 -378 -56

2023 -235 -208 -28 -447 -394 -53

2024 -235 -210 -25 -459 -411 -49

2025 -234 -213 -21 -470 -428 -42

2026 -231 -215 -16 -480 -446 -34

2027 -228 -217 -11 -487 -464 -23

2028 -224 -220 -4 -492 -483 -9

2029 -219 -219 0 -495 -496 0

2030 -213 -212 0 -496 -496 0

2031 -206 -206 0 -495 -494 0

2032 -198 -198 0 -491 -491 0

2033 -190 -190 0 -485 -485 0

2034 -182 -181 0 -477 -477 0

2035 -173 -173 0 -467 -467 0

2036 -164 -164 0 -456 -456 0

2037 -154 -154 0 -443 -443 0

2038 -145 -144 0 -427 -427 0

2039 -135 -135 0 -410 -410 0

2040 -125 -125 0 -392 -392 0

2041 -115 -115 0 -372 -372 0

2042 -105 -105 0 -350 -349 0

2043 -95 -95 0 -327 -327 0

2044 -86 -86 0 -302 -302 0

2045 -76 -76 0 -277 -277 0

2046 -67 -67 0 -251 -250 -1

2047 -58 -58 0 -223 -223 0

2048 -49 -49 0 -195 -194 0

2049 -41 -40 0 -166 -166 0

2050 -32 -32 0 -137 -136 0

2051 -25 -25 0 -107 -107 0

2052 -17 -17 0 -78 -77 -1

2053 -10 -10 0 -48 -48 -1

2054 -4 -4 0 -20 -20 0

2055 0 0 0 0 0 0

2056 0 0 0 0 0 0

2057 0 0 0 0 0 0

2058 0 0 0 0 0 0

2059 0 0 0 0 0 0

2060 0 0 0 0 0 0

2061 0 0 0 0 0 0

2062 0 0 0 0 0 0

2063 0 0 0 0 0 0

2064 0 0 0 0 0 0

2065 0 0 0 0 0 0

2066 0 0 0 0 0 0

2067 0 0 0 0 0 0

2068 0 0 0 0 0 0

2069 0 0 0 0 0 0

2070 0 0 0 0 0 0

2071 0 0 0 0 0 0

2072 0 0 0 0 0 0

2073 0 0 0 0 0 0

2074 0 0 0 0 0 0

2075 0 0 0 0 0 0

2076 0 0 0 0 0 0

2077 0 0 0 0 0 0

2078 0 0 0 0 0 0

2003-77 -7,613 -6,873 -740 Office of the Actuary

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report Social Security Administration

 April 6, 2004
Table 2 e Ferrara Proposal --Components of Cash Flow from the Trust Funds to the General Fund of the Treasury 

Low Cash Flow Due to Cash Flow for Total Cash Cash Flow Net Purchase

Yield Total Cash Net Specified Net Purchase Flow to the Due to Net (Redemption)

Flow to the Transfers under (Redemption) General Fund Specified of Treasury

General Fund the Proposal of Treasury Transfers Securities

(Tab c:col 3)(Tab d: (5)-(3)-(4)) Securities (= Columns (1) (2) (3) in Constant Dollars)

Year (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

(billions of PV$ 1/1/2003) (billions of constant 2003 dollars)

2003 76 76 78 78

2004 77 77 82 82

2005 -144 -13 -131 -159 -14 -144

2006 -154 -36 -118 -175 -41 -134

2007 -156 -58 -98 -183 -69 -115

2008 -161 -81 -80 -195 -98 -97

2009 -167 -102 -65 -209 -127 -81

2010 -173 -123 -51 -223 -158 -65

2011 -179 -143 -36 -237 -190 -48

2012 -186 -162 -24 -254 -222 -32

2013 -193 -181 -13 -273 -255 -18

2014 -201 -199 -2 -292 -289 -3

2015 -208 -216 8 -312 -323 11

2016 -215 -215 0 -331 -332 1

2017 -220 -214 -6 -350 -340 -10

2018 -226 -213 -13 -370 -350 -20

2019 -231 -213 -18 -389 -359 -30

2020 -235 -212 -23 -408 -368 -40

2021 -239 -211 -28 -427 -378 -49

2022 -241 -210 -31 -445 -388 -57

2023 -243 -209 -33 -460 -397 -63

2024 -243 -208 -35 -475 -407 -67

2025 -242 -207 -35 -488 -417 -71

2026 -241 -206 -35 -500 -428 -72

2027 -239 -205 -33 -510 -438 -72

2028 -235 -204 -31 -518 -449 -69

2029 -231 -203 -28 -524 -459 -64

2030 -226 -202 -25 -528 -470 -58

2031 -220 -200 -20 -530 -482 -49

2032 -214 -199 -15 -530 -493 -38

2033 -207 -198 -10 -529 -504 -24

2034 -200 -196 -4 -525 -516 -9

2035 -192 -192 0 -521 -521 0

2036 -184 -184 0 -514 -514 0

2037 -176 -176 0 -506 -506 0

2038 -168 -168 0 -497 -497 0

2039 -160 -160 0 -486 -486 0

2040 -151 -151 0 -474 -474 0

2041 -143 -143 0 -461 -462 0

2042 -134 -134 0 -447 -447 -1

2043 -126 -126 0 -433 -432 0

2044 -118 -118 0 -417 -416 0

2045 -110 -110 0 -400 -400 0

2046 -102 -102 0 -383 -382 -1

2047 -94 -94 0 -364 -364 0

2048 -87 -87 0 -346 -346 0

2049 -80 -80 0 -328 -327 -1

2050 -73 -73 0 -309 -309 -1

2051 -67 -67 0 -291 -292 0

2052 -61 -61 0 -274 -274 0

2053 -55 -55 0 -255 -255 -1

2054 -50 -50 0 -238 -238 0

2055 -45 -45 0 -221 -221 0

2056 -41 -41 0 -205 -205 0

2057 -37 -37 0 -190 -190 0

2058 -33 -33 0 -175 -175 -1

2059 -30 -29 0 -162 -162 -1

2060 -27 -26 0 -151 -150 -1

2061 -24 -24 0 -140 -140 0

2062 -22 -22 0 -131 -131 0

2063 -20 -20 0 -123 -123 -1

2064 -18 -18 0 -116 -116 0

2065 -17 -17 0 -110 -110 0

2066 -16 -15 0 -105 -104 -1

2067 -14 -14 0 -100 -100 0

2068 -13 -13 0 -96 -96 0

2069 -13 -12 0 -93 -92 -1

2070 -12 -12 0 -91 -90 0

2071 -11 -11 0 -89 -88 0

2072 -11 -11 0 -87 -87 -1

2073 -10 -10 0 -87 -86 0

2074 -10 -10 0 -86 -86 0

2075 -10 -10 0 -86 -86 -1

2076 -10 -10 0 -87 -86 0

2077 -9 -9 0 -88 -87 0

2078 -9 -9 0 -89 -89 0

2003-77 -8,903 -8,022 -881 Office of the Actuary

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report Social Security Administration

 April 6, 2004