SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE, MD 21235-0001

SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

February 13, 2023 

The Honorable Bernie Sanders 

United States Senate

Washington, D.C. 20510 

Dear Senator Sanders:

I am writing in response to your request for our estimates of the financial effects on Social 

Security of enacting the Social Security Expansion Act, which you introduced today. The 

estimates provided here reflect the intermediate assumptions of the 2022 Trustees Report. 

The Bill (hereafter referred to as the proposal) includes nine provisions with direct effects on the 

Social Security trust funds. We have enjoyed working with Warren Gunnels and Richard Phillips

of your staff in developing this proposal to meet your goals. The estimates and analysis provided 

here reflect the combined effort of many in the Office of the Chief Actuary, but most particularly 

Karen Glenn, Daniel Nickerson, Kyle Burkhalter, Anna Kirjusina, Chris Chaplain, Katie Sutton, 

and Tiffany Bosley. 

The enclosed tables provide estimates of the effects of the nine provisions on the cost, income, 

and combined trust fund reserves for the Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) 

program, as well as estimated effects on retired worker benefit levels for selected hypothetical 

workers and effects of payroll tax levels. In addition, tables 1b and 1b.n provide estimates of the 

federal budget implications of these nine provisions with direct effects on the OASDI program.

We estimate that enactment of these provisions would extend the ability of the OASDI program 

to pay scheduled benefits in full and on time throughout the 75-year projection period. The date 

of projected depletion of the combined OASI and DI Trust Fund reserves is 2035 under current 

law and the intermediate assumptions of the 2022 Trustees Report.

The proposal includes nine provisions with direct effects on the OASDI program. The following 

list briefly describes these provisions: 

Section 2. Increase the first primary insurance amount (PIA) bend point above the currentlaw level, and increase the first PIA factor from 90 to 95, for all OASDI benefits payable 

based on eligibility for January 2024 and thereafter. Increase the first PIA bend point by 22 

percent for benefits payable for eligibility in 2024 and later, regardless of when any 

beneficiary became initially eligible. Increase the first PIA factor by 5 percentage points, for 

a PIA factor of 95 percent for benefit eligibility in 2024 and later.
Page 2 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders

Section 3. Use the increase in the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E) rather than 

the increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers 

(CPI-W) to calculate the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), effective for December 2025 and 

later COLAs. We assume this change would increase the COLA by an average of 0.2 

percentage point per year.

Section 4. Increase the special minimum PIA for workers who become newly eligible for 

retirement or disability benefits or die in 2024 or later. For workers becoming newly eligible 

or dying in 2024, the minimum initial PIA for workers with 30 or more years of coverage 

(YOCs) is 125 percent of the annual poverty guideline for a single individual, as published 

by the Department of Health and Human Services for 2023, divided by 12. For workers 

becoming newly eligible or dying after 2024, the minimum initial PIA increases by the 

growth in the national average wage index (AWI).

Section 5. Continue benefits for children of disabled, or deceased workers until they attain 

age 22 if the child is in high school, college, or vocational school, beginning in 2024.

Sections 6 and 7. Apply the combined OASDI payroll tax rate on earnings above $250,000, 

effective for 2024 and later. Tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds 

$250,000. Do not credit the additional taxed earnings for benefit purposes.

Section 8a. Apply a separate 12.4-percent tax on investment income as defined in the 

Affordable Care Act (ACA), payable to the OASI and DI Trust Funds with unindexed 

thresholds as in the ACA, effective for 2024 and later. The ACA thresholds are $200,000 for 

a single filer and $250,000 for a married couple filing jointly. Under this provision, there is 

no limit on the amount taxed.

Section 8b. Apply a 16.2-percent net investment income (NII) tax on active S-corporation 

holders and active limited partners, effective for 2024 and later. Of the total 16.2 percent tax, 

12.4 percentage points would be payable to the OASI and DI Trust Funds, and 3.8 

percentage points would be payable to the General Fund of the Treasury.

Section 9. Combine the current separate Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) and 

Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Funds into a single Social Security Trust Fund, effective 

January 1, 2024.

The balance of this letter provides a summary of the effects of the nine provisions on the 

actuarial status of the OASDI program, our understanding of the specifications and intent of each 

of the nine provisions, and descriptions of our detailed financial estimates for trust fund 

operations, benefit levels, and implications for the federal budget. See the “Specification for 

Provisions of the Proposal” section of this letter for a more detailed description of these nine

provisions.
Page 3 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders 

Summary of Effects of the Proposal on OASDI Actuarial Status

Figure 1 illustrates the projected OASDI Trust Fund ratio through 2096 under current law and 

assuming enactment of the proposal. The trust fund ratio is defined as the combined OASI and 

DI Trust Fund reserves expressed as a percentage of annual program cost. Assuming enactment 

of the proposal, the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds are expected to be able to pay scheduled 

benefits in full and on time throughout the 75-year projection period, under the intermediate 

assumptions of the 2022 Trustees Report.

Note: Trust Fund Ratio for a given year is defined as the reserves in the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds at the 

beginning of the year expressed as a percentage of the cost of the program for the year.

Under current law, 80 percent of scheduled benefits are projected to be payable on a timely basis 

in 2035 after depletion of the combined trust fund reserves, with the percentage payable 

declining to 74 percent for 2096. Under the proposal, 100 percent of scheduled benefits are 

projected to be payable on a timely basis throughout the 75-year projection period. 

Enactment of the nine provisions of this proposal would decrease the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit from 3.42 percent of taxable payroll under current law to 0.12 percent of payroll 

under the proposal. 

Figure 2 illustrates annual projected levels of cost, expenditures, and non-interest income as a 

percentage of the current-law taxable payroll. The projected level of cost reflects the full cost of 

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2022 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Trust Fund Ratio

Figure 1. Current-Law and Proposal OASDI Trust Fund Reserves as Percent of 

Annual Cost: 2022 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Current-Law Trust Fund Ratio

Proposal
Page 4 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders 

scheduled benefits under both current law and the proposal. After trust fund reserve depletion, 

projected expenditures under current law and under the proposal include only amounts payable 

from projected tax revenues (non-interest income), which are less than projected cost. 

OASDI program annual cost under the proposal is higher than under current law, starting in 

2024. This difference in program cost increases quickly at first, then generally increases 

gradually over time to about 2.3 percent of current-law payroll for 2096. Beginning in 2024, noninterest income under the proposal is projected to be higher than under current law. This 

difference between proposal and current-law income increases from 4.2 percent of current-law 

payroll for 2024 to 6.0 percent of current-law payroll for 2096. For 2024 and later, the proposal 

improves the annual balance (non-interest income minus program cost). 

It is also useful to consider the projected cost, expenditures, and income for the OASDI program 

expressed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Figure 3 illustrates these levels 

under both current law and the proposal. 

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

2022 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Percent of Current-Law Taxable Payroll

Figure 2. Proposal and Current-Law Cost, Expenditures, and Non-Interest Income 

as Percent of Taxable Payroll: 2022 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Current-Law Cost

Current-Law Non-Interest Income

Current-Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Non-Interest Income

Proposal Expenditures
Page 5 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders 

Specification for Provisions of the Proposal 

Section 2. Increase the first primary insurance amount (PIA) bend point above the currentlaw level, and increase the first PIA factor from 90 to 95, for all OASDI benefits payable 

based on eligibility for January 2024 and thereafter.

Under current law, any portion of the AIME that is below the first PIA bend point is multiplied 

by a factor of 0.90 in computing the PIA. The first bend point is changed (indexed) each year for 

those becoming newly eligible in the year by the increase or decrease in the AWI from the third 

year to the second year prior to their initial year of eligibility. This provision would increase the 

level of the first PIA bend point from the level that would apply under current law by 22 percent 

for all OASDI benefits payable based on eligibility for January 2024 and thereafter, regardless of 

when any beneficiary became initially eligible. This provision would also increase the first PIA 

factor by 5 percentage points, for a PIA factor of 95 for 2024 and later. 

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 1.46 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2096) by 1.53 percent of payroll. 

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

2022 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Percent of GDP

Figure 3. Proposal and Current-Law Cost, Expenditures, and Non-Interest Income 

as Percent of GDP: 2022 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Current-Law Cost

Current-Law Non-Interest Income

Current-Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Non-Interest Income

Proposal Expenditures
Page 6 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders

Section 3. Use the CPI-E increase rather than the CPI-W increase to calculate the COLA, 

effective for December 2025 and later COLAs.

Under current law, the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) applied to Social Security 

benefits is calculated using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical 

Workers (CPI-W). We estimate that using the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E)

increase rather than the CPI-W increase in each year beginning with the December 2025 COLA 

would increase the effective COLA by 0.2 percentage point per year on average.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.41 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2096) by 0.55 percent of payroll.

Section 4. Increase the special minimum PIA for workers who become newly eligible for 

retirement or disability benefits or die in 2024 and later.

Under this provision, the minimum initial PIA for worker beneficiaries becoming newly eligible 

in 2024 with 30 or more years of coverage (YOCs) would be 125 percent of the annual poverty 

guideline for a single individual, as published by the Department of Health and Human Services 

for 2023, divided by 12. For those with less than 30 YOCs, the minimum PIA per YOC in excess 

of 10 is the minimum PIA for workers with 30 or more YOCs, divided by 20. Any year in which 

a worker earns 4 quarters of coverage is determined to be a YOC. For beneficiaries becoming 

newly eligible after 2024, the initial PIA per YOC in excess of 10 is indexed by growth in the 

national average wage index (AWI) to determine the minimum applicable for the year of initial 

eligibility. After the year of initial eligibility, the minimum PIA per YOC is increased by the 

COLA.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.11 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2096) by 0.15 percent of payroll.

Section 5. Continue benefits for children of disabled or deceased workers until age 22 if the 

child is in high school, college, or vocational school, beginning in 2024.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.05 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2096) by 0.05 percent of payroll.

Sections 6 and 7. Apply the combined OASDI payroll tax rate on earnings above $250,000, 

effective for 2024 and later.

This provision applies the OASDI payroll tax rate to earnings above $250,000 in 2024 and later. 

The $250,000 level is a fixed amount after 2024 and not indexed to the average wage increase. 

All earnings would be taxed once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $250,000, which is 

projected to occur in 2035. Any earnings above the higher of $250,000 or the current-law taxable 

maximum in a given year would not be credited for benefit computation purposes.
Page 7 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders

In response to the application of the OASDI payroll tax to covered earnings above $250,000 for 

2024 and later, we assume employers and employees will redistribute total employee 

compensation among taxes, wages, and other compensation. This behavioral response is 

projected to reduce somewhat payroll tax revenue, the AWI. and the scheduled benefits that 

would accrue in the absence of this behavioral response.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 2.46 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2096) by 2.61 percent of payroll.

Section 8a. Apply a separate 12.4-percent tax on investment income, as defined in the 

Affordable Care Act (ACA), payable to the OASI and DI Trust Funds with unindexed 

thresholds as in the ACA, effective for 2024 and later.

The ACA thresholds for Modified Adjusted Gross Income, or MAGI (AGI with adjustments for 

specific circumstances), are $200,000 for a single filer and $250,000 for a married couple filing 

jointly. This provision applies a 12.4 percent Social Security tax to the lesser of MAGI above 

these thresholds and total investment income, in the same way as the 3.8 percent tax on 

investment income that went into effect in 2013 under the ACA. Under this provision, there is no 

limit on the amount taxed.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 1.93 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2096) by 2.31 percent of payroll.

Section 8b. Apply a 16.2-percent net investment income (NII) tax on active S-corporation 

holders and active limited partners, effective for 2024 and later. Of the total 16.2 percent tax, 

12.4 percentage points would be payable to the OASI and DI Trust Funds, and 3.8 

percentage points would be payable to the General Fund of the Treasury.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.92 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2096) by 1.01 percent of payroll.

Section 9. Combine the current separate Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) and 

Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Funds into a single Social Security Trust Fund, effective 

January 1, 2024.

The primary financial effect of enactment of this provision would be to eliminate the possibility 

of OASI or DI Trust Fund reserve depletion affecting some Social Security beneficiaries when 

sufficient reserves would be available in the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds to maintain 

payment of all Social Security benefits in full on a timely basis. For example, under current law 

and the intermediate assumptions of the 2022 Trustees Report, the reserves of DI Trust Fund are 

not projected to become depleted within the long-range projection period. However, reserves in 

the OASI Trust Fund are projected to become depleted in 2034 under current law. Enactment of 

this provision alone would consolidate the reserves of the OASI and DI Trust Funds, as well as 

future income and obligations for the separate programs, as of January 1, 2024. As a result, the 
Page 8 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders 

consolidated Social Security Trust Fund would be projected to be adequately financed with all 

OASI and DI benefits payable in full on a timely basis until consolidated reserves become 

depleted in 2035. 

We estimate that the change in the long-range OASDI annual balance and the change in the

annual deficit for the 75th projection year (2096) from enactment of this provision alone would 

be negligible: that is, between -0.005 and 0.005 percent of taxable payroll. 

Detailed Financial Results for the Provisions of the Proposal 

Summary Results by Provision 

Table A provides estimates of the effects on the OASDI long-range actuarial balance of the 

provisions of the proposal separately and on a combined basis. The table also includes estimates 

of the effect of the provisions on the annual balance (the difference between the income rate and 

the cost rate, expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll) for the 75th projection 

year, 2096. Interaction among individual provisions is reflected only in the total estimates for the 

combined provisions. 

Benefit Illustrations

Tables B1 and B2 provide illustrative examples of the projected change in benefit levels under 

the provisions of the proposal for beneficiaries retiring and starting benefit receipt at age 65 in 

future years at six selected earnings levels, with selected numbers of years of work. The 

“Maximum-AIME Steady Earner” is assumed to have earnings at ages 22 through 64 that equal 

the current-law taxable maximum level (equivalent to $147,000 for 2022) and the “Twice 

Maximum-AIME Steady Earner” is assumed to have earnings at ages 22 through 64 that equal 

twice the current-law taxable maximum level (equivalent to $294,000 for 2022). As a result, the 

provision to tax and credit earnings above the current-law taxable maximum affects only the 

“Twice Maximum-AIME Steady Earner” benefit level. Table B3 provides additional important 

information on characteristics of retired workers represented by these illustrations for the year 

2016. 

The first several columns of Table B1 compare the initial scheduled benefit levels, assuming 

retirement at age 65 under the provisions of the proposal, to scheduled current-law benefit levels. 

Among the examples in the table, the proposed minimum benefit affects only the very-lowAIME hypothetical worker with 30 years of earnings. The scheduled benefit amounts under the 

proposal shown in the “payroll tax and benefit formula” column are higher than under current 

law by about 5 to 15 percent for workers newly entitled (starting receipt of benefits) at age 65 in 

2040, 2060, and 2090. The final two columns of this table show the level of scheduled benefits 

under the proposal as a percentage of current-law scheduled benefits and the level of payable 

benefits under the proposal as a percentage of current-law payable benefits.

Table B2 provides two comparisons: (1) the percentage change in scheduled benefit levels at 

ages 65, 75, 85, and 95 under the proposal compared to scheduled benefits under current law; 

and (2) the percentage change in payable benefit levels at the same four ages under the proposal 

compared to payable benefits under current law. Each comparison assumes retirement and start 
Page 9 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders

of benefit receipt at age 65. Table B2 shows that projected scheduled benefits under the 

provisions of this proposal increase in relation to current-law scheduled benefits between ages 65 

and 95, because of the change in computing the COLA.

The hypothetical workers represented in these tables reflect average career-earnings patterns of 

workers who started receiving retirement benefits under the Social Security program in recent 

years. The tables subdivide workers with very-low, low, and medium career-average earnings 

levels by their numbers of years of non-zero earnings.

Table B3 provides information helpful in interpreting the benefit illustrations in tables B1 and 

B2. Percentages in Table B3 are based on tabulations from a 10-percent sample of newly-entitled 

retired workers (starting receipt of benefits) in 2016. Table B3 displays the percentages of these 

newly-entitled retired workers in 2016 that are closest to each of the illustrative examples and 

are:

1) “Dually Entitled”, meaning they received a higher spouse or widow(er) benefit based on 

the career earnings of their husband or wife,

2) “WEP” (Windfall Elimination Provision), meaning that they received a reduced benefit 

due to having a pension based on earnings that were not covered under the OASDI 

program (primarily certain government workers), and they had less than 30 years of 

substantial earnings that were taxable under the OASDI program,

3) “Foreign Born”, meaning that they entered the Social Security coverage area after birth 

(and generally after entering working ages), and

4) “All Others”, meaning they had none of the three characteristics listed above.

The extent to which retired-worker beneficiaries represented by each of the illustrative examples 

has any of the characteristics listed above (dually entitled, WEP, foreign born) is important 

because such individuals are less dependent on the OASDI benefit that relates to their own 

career-average earnings level. It should be noted that the distributions shown in Table B3 for 

retirees in 2016 will be changing somewhat for beneficiaries becoming entitled as retired-worker 

beneficiaries in the future.

Payroll Tax Effects

Table T compares the scheduled payroll tax levels under the provisions of the proposal to 

scheduled current-law payroll tax levels. Under the proposal, workers with covered earnings in 

excess of the higher of $250,000 and the current-law taxable maximum would, along with their 

employers, pay additional payroll taxes. Because the payroll tax would additionally apply to 

annual earnings in excess of $250,000 starting in 2024, payroll tax liability would increase in 

2024 and later. Table T shows that the worker with earnings at twice the current-law taxable 

maximum in years 2040, 2060, and 2090 would have payroll tax liability increased by 100

percent.

Detailed Tables Containing Annual and Summary Projections

Enclosed with this letter are tables 1, 1a, 1b, 1b.n, 1c, 1d, and 1d.n, which provide annual and 

summary projections for the proposal.
Page 10 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders

Trust Fund Operations

Table 1 provides projections of the financial operations of the OASDI program under the 

proposal and shows that the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds would be able to pay scheduled 

benefits in full and on time throughout the 75-year period through 2096 assuming enactment of 

the nine provisions. Under current law, 80 percent of scheduled benefits are projected to be 

payable at trust fund reserve depletion in 2035, declining to 74 percent payable by 2096. Under 

this proposal, 100 percent of the proposed (higher) scheduled benefits would be fully payable 

through 2096.

The table shows the annual cost and income rates, annual balances, and trust fund ratios 

(reserves as a percentage of annual program cost) for OASDI, as well as the change from current 

law in these cost rates, income rates, and annual balances. Included at the bottom of this table are 

summarized rates for the 75-year (long-range) period.

For 2024 and later, the proposal improves the annual balance (non-interest income minus 

program cost). The improvement in the annual balance increases from 2.9 percent of current-law 

payroll for 2024 to 3.7 percent for 2096. Under the proposal, the annual balance is negative in 

2022 and 2023, positive from 2024 through 2037, and then negative through the end of the longrange period. The annual deficit increases to 1.4 percent of payroll for 2078, and then decreases 

to 0.5 percent of payroll for 2096. Under current law, the projected annual deficit for 2096 is 4.3

percent of payroll.

The actuarial deficit for the OASDI program over the 75-year projection period is reduced by 

3.30 percent of taxable payroll, from an actuarial deficit of 3.42 percent of payroll under current 

law to an actuarial deficit of 0.12 percent of taxable payroll under the proposal.

Program Transfers and Trust Fund Reserves

Column 4 of Table 1a provides a projection of the level of reserves for the combined OASI and 

DI Trust Funds, assuming enactment of the nine Social Security provisions of the proposal. 

These trust fund reserve amounts are expressed in present value dollars discounted to January 1, 

2022. The table indicates that the provisions include no new specified transfers of general 

revenue to the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds. For purpose of comparison, the OASDI 

Trust Fund reserves, expressed in present value dollars, are also shown for the current-law Social 

Security program both without and with the added proposal general fund transfers (zero in this 

case) in columns 6 and 7.

Note that negative values in columns 6 and 7 represent the “unfunded obligation” for the 

program through the year. The unfunded obligation is the present value of the shortfall of 

revenue needed to pay full scheduled benefits on a timely basis from the date of trust fund 

reserve depletion through the end of the indicated year. Gross Domestic Product (GDP),

expressed in present value dollars, is shown in column 5 for comparison with other values in the 

table.
Page 11 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders

Effect of the Social Security Provisions on the Federal Budget

Table 1b shows the projected effect, in present value discounted dollars, on the federal budget 

(unified-budget and on-budget) annual cash flows and balances, assuming enactment of the nine

Social Security provisions of the proposal. Our analysis provided in these tables reflects only the 

direct effects of these provisions on the OASI and DI Trust Funds and does not reflect the effects 

of these provisions on the General Fund of the Treasury under the on-budget operations of the 

federal government. Table 1b.n provides the estimated nominal dollar effect of enactment of the 

proposal on annual budget balances for years 2022 through 2032. All values in these tables 

represent the amount of change from the level projected under current law. In addition, changes

reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits, not payable under the law after 

depletion of trust fund reserves, would still be paid using revenue provided from the General 

Fund of the Treasury. The reader should be cautioned that this presumption of payment of 

benefits beyond the resources of the trust funds is prohibited under current law and is also 

inconsistent with all past experience under the Social Security program.

Column 1 of Table 1b shows the added proposal general fund transfers (zero for this proposal). 

Column 2 shows the net changes in OASDI cash flow from all provisions of the proposal.

We project the net effect of the proposal on unified budget cash flow (column 3) to be positive in 

years 2024 and later, reflecting the newly applied taxes on net investment income in section 8a

and section 8b and the payroll tax newly applied to earnings above $250,000 in sections 6 and 7.

Column 4 of Table 1b indicates that the effect of implementing the proposal would be a 

reduction of the theoretical federal debt held by the public, reaching about $21.0 trillion in 

present value at the end of the 75-year projection period. Column 5 provides the projected effect 

of the proposal on the annual unified budget balances, including both the cash flow effect in 

column 3 and the additional interest on the accumulated debt in column 4. Columns 6 and 7 

indicate that the provisions of this proposal would have no expected direct effects on the onbudget cash flow, or on the total federal debt, in the future, because estimates provided here 

include only direct effects of the provisions on the OASI and DI Trust Funds.

It is important to note that we base these estimates on the intermediate assumptions of the 2022

Trustees Report, so these estimates are not consistent with estimates made by the Office of 

Management and Budget or the Congressional Budget Office based on their assumptions. In 

particular, all present values are discounted using trust fund yield assumptions under the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2022 Trustees Report.

Annual Trust Fund Operations as a Percentage of GDP

Table 1c provides annual cost, annual expenditures (amount that would be payable), and annual 

tax income for the OASDI program expressed as a percentage of GDP for both current law and 

assuming enactment of the nine Social Security provisions of the proposal. Showing the annual 

trust fund cash flows as a percentage of GDP provides an additional perspective on these trust 

fund operations in relation to the total value of goods and services produced in the United States. 

The relationship between income and cost is similar when expressed as a percentage of GDP to 

that when expressed as a percentage of taxable payroll (Table 1).
Page 12 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders

Effects on Trust Fund Reserves and Unfunded Obligations

Table 1d provides estimates of the changes in trust fund reserves and unfunded obligations on an 

annual basis, expressed in present value dollars discounted to January 1, 2022. Table 1d.n

provides the same estimates, expressed in nominal dollars, for years 2022 through 2032.

For the 75-year (long-range) period as a whole, the current-law unfunded obligation of $20.4

trillion would be replaced by reserves of $0.5 trillion in present value at the end of 2096, 

assuming enactment of the proposal. This change of $21.0 trillion results from:

• A $33.8 trillion increase in revenue (column 2), from taxing all earnings above the 

higher of the current-law taxable maximum or $250,000, and applying a separate 12.4

percent tax on net investment income as in the ACA and a new net investment income 

tax on active officials in S-corporations and limited partnerships, minus

• A $12.8 trillion increase in cost (column 3), primarily from the special minimum PIA 

provision, calculating the COLA using the CPI-E rather than the CPI-W, extending 

student benefits up to attainment of age 22, and increasing current and future benefits 

by increasing the first PIA bend point by 22 percent and the first PIA factor from 90 to 

95.

We hope these estimates are helpful. Please let me know if we may provide further assistance.

Sincerely,

Stephen C. Goss, ASA, MAAA

Chief Actuary

Enclosures
Table A—Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of the “Social Security 

Expansion Act” (118th Congress), Introduced by Sen. Sanders 

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

for 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

Section 2) Increase the current-law first bend point by 22

percent and increase the 90 percent PIA factor to 95 percent 

for all beneficiaries eligible for benefits as of January 2024 

and for those becoming newly eligible for benefits after 2023. 

This provision will result in an approximate $200 increase in 

PIA for most workers newly eligible for retirement or 

disability benefits in 2024.......................................................... -1.46 -1.53

Section 3) Use the increase in the Consumer Price Index for 

the Elderly (CPI-E) rather than the increase in the Consumer 

Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers

(CPI-W) to calculate the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), 

effective for December 2025 and later COLAs. We estimate 

this new computation would increase the annual COLA by 

about 0.2 percentage point, on average ..................................... -0.41 -0.55

Section 4) Beginning in 2024, reconfigure the special 

minimum PIA for workers becoming newly eligible or dying 

after 2023: (a) A year of coverage (YOC) is defined as a year 

in which 4 quarters of coverage are earned. (b) For those 

becoming newly eligible or dying in 2024 with 30 or more 

YOCs, set the minimum PIA equal to 125 percent of the 2023

Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) monthly 

poverty level. For those with under 30 YOCs, the PIA per 

YOC in excess of 10 YOCs is 125 percent of this poverty level 

calculation, divided by 20. (c) For workers becoming newly 

eligible or dying after 2024, index the initial PIA per YOC by 

growth in the national average wage index (AWI). The 30 and 

10 YOC levels apply for all workers, including those who die 

or become disabled under age 62............................................... -0.11 -0.15

Section 5) Beginning in 2024, continue benefits for children of 

disabled or deceased workers until they attain age 22 if the 

child is in high school, college or vocational school................. -0.05 -0.05

Sections 6 and 7) Apply the combined OASDI payroll tax rate 

on earnings above $250,000 starting in 2024. Tax all earnings 

once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $250,000. Do 

not provide benefit credit for additional earnings taxed............ 2.46 2.61
Table A—Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of the “Social Security 

Expansion Act” (118th Congress), Introduced by Sen. Sanders 

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

for 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

Section 8a) Apply a separate 12.4 percent tax on investment 

income as defined in the Affordable Care Act (ACA), with 

unindexed thresholds as in the ACA ($200,000 single filer, 

$250,000 for married filing joint), starting in 2024. Proceeds 

go to the OASDI Trust Funds.................................................... 1.93 2.31

Section 8b) For active S-corporation officers and limited 

partners, apply a 16.2 percent tax on investment income as 

defined in the ACA, with unindexed thresholds as in the ACA 

($200,000 single filer, $250,000 for married filing joint), 

starting in 2024. Proceeds go to the OASDI Trust Funds for 

tax attributable to 12.4 percent of the total 16.2 percent tax rate 0.92 1.01

Section 9) Beginning in 2024, establish a new Social Security 

Trust Fund by combining the reserves of the separate OASI 

and DI Trust Funds and managing all future operations of the 

program on a combined basis .................................................... 3 3

Total for all provisions, including interaction.................... 3.30 3.71

1

Under current law, the estimated long-range OASDI actuarial balance is -3.42 percent of taxable payroll. 2

Under current law, the estimated 75th year annual balance is -4.25 percent of taxable payroll. 3

Negligible; that is, between -0.005 and 0.005 percent of taxable payroll. 

Notes: All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2022 OASDI Trustees Report. 

 Estimates of individual provisions appear on a stand-alone basis relative to current law, unless otherwise stated.

Social Security Administration

Office of the Chief Actuary

February 13, 2023
Proposal Proposal

Year Scheduled to Payable to

Attain Payroll Tax and Minimum Current Law Current Law

Age 65 (Wage-Indexed (CPI-Indexed COLA5 Benefit Formula6 Benefit7 Total Scheduled Payable

2022 Dollars) 2022 Dollars)

 

2026 805 866 0.2 15.0 0.0 15.2 115 115

2040 848 1,083 0.6 14.1 18.2 35.7 136 173

2060 850 1,352 0.6 14.6 17.7 35.6 136 180

2090 851 1,890 0.6 14.7 17.5 35.6 136 184

 

2026 805 866 0.2 15.0 0.0 15.2 115 115

2040 848 1,083 0.6 14.1 0.0 14.8 115 146

2060 850 1,352 0.6 14.6 0.0 15.3 115 153

2090 851 1,890 0.6 14.7 0.0 15.3 115 156

 

2026 805 866 0.2 15.0 0.0 15.2 115 115

2040 848 1,083 0.6 14.1 0.0 14.8 115 146

2060 850 1,352 0.6 14.6 0.0 15.3 115 153

2090 851 1,890 0.6 14.7 0.0 15.3 115 156

2026 1,055 1,135 0.2 15.2 0.0 15.4 115 115

2040 1,110 1,418 0.6 14.5 0.0 15.1 115 147

2060 1,113 1,770 0.6 14.7 0.0 15.4 115 154

2090 1,114 2,474 0.6 14.8 0.0 15.4 115 156

2026 1,055 1,135 0.2 15.2 0.0 15.4 115 115

2040 1,110 1,418 0.6 14.5 0.0 15.1 115 147

2060 1,113 1,770 0.6 14.7 0.0 15.4 115 154

2090 1,114 2,474 0.6 14.8 0.0 15.4 115 156

2026 1,055 1,135 0.2 15.2 0.0 15.4 115 115

2040 1,110 1,418 0.6 14.5 0.0 15.1 115 147

2060 1,113 1,770 0.6 14.7 0.0 15.4 115 154

2090 1,114 2,474 0.6 14.8 0.0 15.4 115 156

2026 1,742 1,874 0.2 9.2 0.0 9.4 109 109

2040 1,831 2,339 0.6 8.6 0.0 9.2 109 139

2060 1,835 2,918 0.6 8.9 0.0 9.6 110 146

2090 1,837 4,080 0.6 9.0 0.0 9.6 110 149

2026 1,742 1,874 0.2 9.2 0.0 9.4 109 109

2040 1,831 2,339 0.6 8.6 0.0 9.2 109 139

2060 1,835 2,918 0.6 8.9 0.0 9.6 110 146

2090 1,837 4,080 0.6 9.0 0.0 9.6 110 149

2026 2,303 2,478 0.2 7.0 0.0 7.2 107 107

2040 2,423 3,095 0.6 6.3 0.0 6.9 107 136

2060 2,429 3,863 0.6 6.4 0.0 7.1 107 142

2090 2,431 5,400 0.6 6.5 0.0 7.1 107 145

2026 2,814 3,028 0.2 5.7 0.0 5.9 106 106

2040 2,965 3,788 0.6 4.9 0.0 5.5 105 135

2060 2,967 4,717 0.6 4.9 0.0 5.5 105 140

2090 2,969 6,593 0.6 4.9 0.0 5.5 106 143

2026 2,814 3,028 0.2 5.7 0.0 5.9 106 106

2040 2,965 3,788 0.6 4.9 0.0 5.5 105 135

2060 2,967 4,717 0.6 4.9 0.0 5.5 105 140

2090 2,969 6,593 0.6 4.9 0.0 5.5 106 143

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2022 Trustees Report.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration February 13, 2023

After the trust fund reserves deplete under current law continuing taxes are expected to be enough to pay about three fourths of scheduled benefits.

Starting Dec 2025, compute the COLA using increases in the CPI-E, producing 0.2% higher annual COLAs on average.

Beginning in 2024, for all eligible beneficiaries, increase the current-law first PIA bend point by 22% and increase the 90% PIA factor to 95%. Apply the OASDI payroll tax rate on 

earnings above $250,000 starting in 2024, and tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $250,000. Do not provide benefit credit for additional earnings taxed. 

The assumed behavioral response to increased payroll tax lowers reported wages, and thus the level of the AWI starting in 2024.

For beneficiaries becoming newly eligible in 2024, establish a minimum PIA level such that a worker with 30/10 years of coverage would receive a minimum PIA for 2024 of at least 

125%/0% of the monthly poverty level for 2023. For beneficiaries newly eligible after 2024, the minimum PIA level for their initial year of eligibility would be adjusted for average 

wage growth. The minimum PIA is increased after the year of initial eligibility by the COLA. The minimum benefit percent change is calculated after all other provisions, so that the 

proposal benefit amount is at least the minimum benefit, where applicable.

This analysis reflects only the provisions of the proposal identified in this table and described in the footnotes above.

Of the 7.2 percent of retirees with current-law AIME closest to the Maximum-Current-Law level, about 33 percent (or 2.4 percent of all retirees) would have an AIME closer to the 

Twice Maximum-Current-Law level if their earnings were not limited by annual taxable maximums.

 Very-Low-AIME ($15,646 for 20221) 14-Year Scaled Earner (3.5% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($28,162 for 20221

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (19.0% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($28,162 for 20221) 30-Year Scaled Earner (3.8% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($28,162 for 20221) 20-Year Scaled Earner (1.4% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($62,583 for 20221) 44-Year Scaled Earner (27.5% of Retirees2

)

 Medium-AIME ($62,583 for 20221

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (1.8% of Retirees2)

 High-AIME ($100,133 for 20221) 44-Year Scaled Earner (19.4% of Retirees2)

 Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($147,000 for 20221

) 43-Year Steady Earner (7.2% of Retirees2)

 Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($294,000 for 20221) 43-Year Steady Earner3

Average of highest 35 years of taxable earnings wage indexed to 2022. For the Maximum and Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME workers, we show one times and two times the 2022 

taxable maximum, respectively.

Projected percent of newly entitled retired worker beneficiaries in 2050 with current-law AIME levels and years of covered earnings closest to AIME levels and close to years of covered 

earnings shown. See details in Note 1 on table B3.

Monthly Benefits4

(Percent change) (Percents)

 Very-Low-AIME ($15,646 for 20221

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (11.1% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($15,646 for 20221) 20-Year Scaled Earner (5.1% of Retirees2

)

Table B1. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Becoming Newly Entitled at age 65 

"Social Security Expansion Act," Introduced by Sen. Sanders

Benefit Ratios

Scheduled Benefit Level Percent Change at age 65

Current Law Scheduled
Year 

Attain

Age 65 Age 65 Age 75 Age 85 Age 95 Age 65 Age 75 Age 85 Age 95

2026 115.2 117.5 119.8 122.2 115.2 148.1 154.0 160.3

2040 135.7 138.3 141.1 143.8 173.1 178.9 187.7 197.3

2060 135.6 138.3 141.0 143.8 180.5 189.7 196.6 194.9

2090 135.6 138.2 140.9 143.7 183.7 186.6 4 4

2026 115.2 117.5 119.8 122.2 115.2 148.1 154.0 160.3

2040 114.8 117.0 119.3 121.7 146.5 151.4 158.8 166.9

2060 115.3 117.5 119.9 122.2 153.4 161.2 167.1 165.6

2090 115.3 117.6 119.9 122.3 156.3 158.8 4 4

2026 115.2 117.5 119.8 122.2 115.2 148.1 154.0 160.3

2040 114.8 117.0 119.3 121.7 146.5 151.4 158.8 166.9

2060 115.3 117.5 119.9 122.2 153.4 161.2 167.1 165.6

2090 115.3 117.6 119.9 122.3 156.3 158.8 4 4

2026 115.4 117.7 120.0 122.4 115.4 148.3 154.3 160.6

2040 115.1 117.4 119.7 122.1 146.9 151.8 159.3 167.4

2060 115.4 117.7 120.0 122.4 153.6 161.4 167.3 165.8

2090 115.4 117.7 120.0 122.4 156.4 158.9 4 4

2026 115.4 117.7 120.0 122.4 115.4 148.3 154.3 160.6

2040 115.1 117.4 119.7 122.1 146.9 151.8 159.3 167.4

2060 115.4 117.7 120.0 122.4 153.6 161.4 167.3 165.8

2090 115.4 117.7 120.0 122.4 156.4 158.9 4 4

2026 115.4 117.7 120.0 122.4 115.4 148.3 154.3 160.6

2040 115.1 117.4 119.7 122.1 146.9 151.8 159.3 167.4

2060 115.4 117.7 120.0 122.4 153.6 161.4 167.3 165.8

2090 115.4 117.7 120.0 122.4 156.4 158.9 4 4

2026 109.4 111.6 113.8 116.0 109.4 140.6 146.2 152.2

2040 109.2 111.4 113.6 115.8 139.4 144.1 151.1 158.9

2060 109.6 111.7 113.9 116.2 145.8 153.3 158.8 157.4

2090 109.6 111.8 114.0 116.2 148.5 150.9 4 4

2026 109.4 111.6 113.8 116.0 109.4 140.6 146.2 152.2

2040 109.2 111.4 113.6 115.8 139.4 144.1 151.1 158.9

2060 109.6 111.7 113.9 116.2 145.8 153.3 158.8 157.4

2090 109.6 111.8 114.0 116.2 148.5 150.9 4 4

2026 107.2 109.3 111.5 113.6 107.2 137.7 143.2 149.1

2040 106.9 109.0 111.1 113.3 136.4 141.0 147.9 155.5

2060 107.1 109.2 111.3 113.5 142.5 149.8 155.2 153.8

2090 107.1 109.2 111.4 113.6 145.1 147.4 4 4

2026 105.9 108.0 110.1 112.3 105.9 136.1 141.5 147.4

2040 105.5 107.6 109.7 111.8 134.6 139.1 145.9 153.4

2060 105.5 107.6 109.7 111.9 140.4 147.6 152.9 151.6

2090 105.5 107.6 109.7 111.9 143.0 145.3 4 4

2026 105.9 108.0 110.1 112.3 105.9 136.1 141.5 147.4

2040 105.5 107.6 109.7 111.8 134.6 139.1 145.9 153.4

2060 105.5 107.6 109.7 111.9 140.4 147.6 152.9 151.6

2090 105.5 107.6 109.7 111.9 143.0 145.3 4 4

1

2

3

4

Note:

-

-

-

- This analysis reflects only the provisions of the proposal identified in Table B1 and described in the notes above.

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2022 Trustees Report.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration February 13, 2023

 Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($294,000 for 20221) 43-Year Steady Earner3

Average of highest 35 years of taxable earnings wage indexed to 2022. For the Maximum and Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME workers, we show one times 

and two times the 2022 taxable maximum, respectively.

Projected percent of newly entitled retired worker beneficiaries in 2050 with current-law AIME levels and years of covered earnings closest to AIME levels and 

close to years of covered earnings shown. See details in Note 1 on table B3.

Of the 7.2 percent of retirees with current-law AIME closest to the Maximum-Current-Law level, about 33 percent (or 2.4 percent of all retirees) would have an 

AIME closer to the Twice Maximum-Current-Law level if their earnings were not limited by annual taxable maximums.

The proposal payable benefit as percent of current law payable benefit is not presented for years of payment beyond the 75-year projection period.

Starting Dec 2025, compute the COLA using increases in the CPI-E, producing 0.2% higher annual COLAs on average.

Beginning in 2024, for all eligible beneficiaries, increase the current-law first PIA bend point by 22% and increase the 90% PIA factor to 95%. Apply the OASDI 

payroll tax rate on earnings above $250,000 starting in 2024, and tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $250,000. Do not provide benefit 

credit for additional earnings taxed. The assumed behavioral response to increased payroll tax lowers reported wages, and thus the level of the AWI starting in 

2024.

For beneficiaries becoming newly eligible in 2024, establish a minimum PIA level such that a worker with 30/10 years of coverage would receive a minimum PIA 

for 2024 of at least 125%/0% of the monthly poverty level for 2023. For beneficiaries newly eligible after 2024, the minimum PIA level for their initial year of 

eligibility would be adjusted for average wage growth. The minimum PIA is increased after the year of initial eligibility by the COLA.

 Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($147,000 for 20221) 43-Year Steady Earner (7.2% of Retirees2)

(Percent)

 Very-Low-AIME ($15,646 for 20221

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (11.1% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($15,646 for 20221

) 20-Year Scaled Earner (5.1% of Retirees2

)

 Very-Low-AIME ($15,646 for 20221

) 14-Year Scaled Earner (3.5% of Retirees2

)

 Low-AIME ($28,162 for 20221

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (19.0% of Retirees2

)

 Low-AIME ($28,162 for 20221

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (3.8% of Retirees2

)

 Low-AIME ($28,162 for 20221

) 20-Year Scaled Earner (1.4% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($62,583 for 20221

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (27.5% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($62,583 for 20221

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (1.8% of Retirees2)

 High-AIME ($100,133 for 20221

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (19.4% of Retirees2)

Table B2. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Becoming Newly Entitled age 65 

"Social Security Expansion Act," Introduced by Sen. Sanders

Proposal Scheduled Benefit as Percent of Proposal Payable Benefit as Percent of 

Current Law Scheduled Benefit Current Law Payable Benefit
Category 

(AIME and Years of Covered Earnings Close to) Dually Entitled2 WEP3 Foreign Born All Others4

Very-Low-AIME ($11,592 for 20161):

30-Year Scaled Earner (7.9% of Retirees) 27 8 14 53

20-Year Scaled Earner (6.0% of Retirees) 27 16 27 35

14-Year Scaled Earner (5.2% of Retirees) 21 20 52 19

Low-AIME ($20,856 for 20161):

44-Year Scaled Earner (13.0% of Retirees) 8 2 7 83

30-Year Scaled Earner (6.8% of Retirees) 13 8 25 56

20-Year Scaled Earner (2.4% of Retirees) 9 21 47 29

Medium-AIME ($46,368 for 20161):

44-Year Scaled Earner (25.8% of Retirees) 1 1 6 92

30-Year Scaled Earner (3.3% of Retirees) 1 12 37 53

High-AIME ($74,184 for 20161):

44-Year Scaled Earner (20.3% of Retirees) 0 1 8 91

Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($118,500 for 20161):

Steady Earner (9.3% of Retirees) 0 0 9 91

1

2

3

4 Not foreign born, not dually entitled by the end of 2018, and not reduced by WEP by the end of 2018.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration June 18, 2020

Table B3. Characteristics of Retired Worker Beneficiaries Becoming Newly Entitled in 2016

Percent of Beneficiaries Within Each Category That Are:

Note 1: Table B3 displays certain characteristics of newly-entitled retired worker beneficiaries in 2016 who are similar to the illustrative hypothetical workers shown in tables B1 

and B2. The categories shown here include those workers with AIME closest to the earnings level shown, and with years of covered earnings close to the number shown. In 

particular: 

- For the Very-Low-AIME category, 

 - workers included in the "30-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 25+ years of covered earnings; 

 - workers included in the "20-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 18-24 years of covered earnings; 

 - workers included in the "14-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have less than 18 years of covered earnings.

- For the Low-AIME category, 

 - workers included in the "44-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 35+ years of covered earnings; 

 - workers included in the "30-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 25-34 years of covered earnings; 

 - workers included in the "20-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have less than 25 years of covered earnings.

- For the Medium-AIME category, 

 - workers included in the "44-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 35+ years of covered earnings; 

 - workers included in the "30-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have less than 35 years of covered earnings.

- Workers included in the High-AIME "44-Year Scaled Earner" category have all numbers of years of covered earnings.

- Workers included in the Maximum-Current-Law-AIME "Steady Earner" category have all numbers of years of covered earnings.

Note 2: The percentages in each category are based on tabulations of a 10-percent sample of newly entitled retired-worker beneficiaries in 2016 (288,627 records). We can be 95 

percent confident that each of the values shown above is within 1.4 percentage points of the value we would find using 100 percent of the retirees in 2016.

Note 3: The sum of the percentages for each category (sum across rows) could be greater than 100 percent because some beneficiaries can be classified in more than one of the 

following groups: dually entitled, WEP, and foreign born. 

Average of highest 35 years of taxable earnings wage indexed to 2016.

Values in this column are percentages of retired workers newly entitled in 2016 who were also entitled to a higher benefit based on someone else’s account by the end of 

2018. The percentage that will ever become dually entitled is higher for most categories, because some retired workers newly entitled in 2016 will first become dually entitled 

after 2018.

Values in this column are percentages of retired workers newly entitled in 2016 who had their benefit reduced based on receipt of a pension from government employment 

under the windfall elimination provision (WEP) by the end of 2018. The percentage that will ever be reduced by WEP is higher for each category, because some retired 

workers newly entitled in 2016 will first receive a government pension after 2018.
Proposal Scheduled Payroll Taxes

Earnings Taxable Percent of Current Law

in Year (Wage-Indexed (CPI-Indexed Maximum2

2022 Dollars) 2022 Dollars) (Percents)

2026 162 174 0.0 100

2040 162 206 0.0 100

2060 162 257 0.0 100

2090 162 359 0.0 100

2026 291 313 0.0 100

2040 291 372 0.0 100

2060 291 463 0.0 100

2090 291 646 0.0 100

2026 647 696 0.0 100

2040 647 826 0.0 100

2060 647 1,029 0.0 100

2090 647 1,436 0.0 100

2026 1,035 1,113 0.0 100

2040 1,035 1,321 0.0 100

2060 1,035 1,646 0.0 100

2090 1,035 2,298 0.0 100

2026 1,519 1,634 0.0 100

2040 1,519 1,940 0.0 100

2060 1,519 2,416 0.0 100

2090 1,519 3,374 0.0 100

2026 1,519 1,634 0.0 100

2040 1,519 1,940 100.0 200

2060 1,519 2,416 100.0 200

2090 1,519 3,374 100.0 200

1

2

This analysis reflects only the provisions of the proposal identified in this table and described in the footnotes above.

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2022 Trustees Report.

Percentile among all workers with any covered earnings in 2022 (including earnings both above and below the current-law taxable maximum earnings level). We include those who will 

die or become disabled before reaching retirement age, and those who will not earn enough in their career to become fully insured for retired worker benefits. Thus, these percentiles are 

not directly comparable to the percentages in the B tables, which are based on lifetime earnings, and include only those who survive and become eligible for retirement benefits.

Apply the OASDI payroll tax rate on earnings above $250,000 starting in 2023, and tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $250,000. In addition, there would be 

effects on earnings (and therefore payroll taxes paid) due to the assumed behavioral response.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration February 13, 2023

98th Percentile Earner1

 in Year ($294,000 in 2022) Twice Current-Law Maximum Earnings Level

Table T. Changes in Payroll Tax Contributions (Employee + Employer) for Workers with OASDI Covered Earnings in the Year

"Social Security Expansion Act," Introduced by Sen. Sanders

Scheduled Payroll Taxes Percent Change 

Current Law Scheduled

Monthly Total Payroll Taxes

(Percent change) 

26th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($15,646 in 2022)

40th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($28,162 in 2022)

70th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($62,583 in 2022)

86th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($100,133 in 2022)

93rd Percentile Earner1 in Year ($147,000 in 2022) Current-Law Maximum Earnings Level
Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

"Social Security Expansion Act", Introduced by Senator Sanders

Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2022 14.05 12.79 -1.26 230 0.00 0.00 0.00

2023 14.31 13.04 -1.27 211 0.00 0.00 0.00

2024 15.83 17.19 1.36 177 1.38 4.24 2.86

2025 16.05 17.51 1.46 179 1.39 4.54 3.14

2026 16.33 17.70 1.37 181 1.44 4.62 3.18

2027 16.60 17.79 1.19 182 1.50 4.69 3.19

2028 16.88 17.87 1.00 183 1.55 4.73 3.18

2029 17.13 17.95 0.82 184 1.60 4.77 3.17

2030 17.37 18.02 0.65 184 1.65 4.82 3.17

2031 17.60 18.09 0.49 183 1.70 4.86 3.17

2032 17.81 18.20 0.40 183 1.74 4.96 3.22

2033 17.99 18.30 0.31 183 1.78 5.04 3.26

2034 18.14 18.40 0.25 183 1.82 5.13 3.31

2035 18.28 18.49 0.21 185 1.86 5.21 3.36

2036 18.39 18.52 0.13 186 1.89 5.24 3.35

2037 18.50 18.55 0.05 188 1.92 5.26 3.34

2038 18.59 18.58 -0.01 189 1.95 5.28 3.34

2039 18.66 18.60 -0.05 190 1.97 5.31 3.34

2040 18.71 18.63 -0.08 191 1.99 5.33 3.34

2041 18.75 18.65 -0.10 192 2.01 5.35 3.34

2042 18.80 18.67 -0.12 193 2.03 5.37 3.34

2043 18.83 18.69 -0.14 194 2.05 5.39 3.34

2044 18.87 18.72 -0.15 195 2.06 5.41 3.35

2045 18.90 18.74 -0.16 195 2.08 5.43 3.35

2046 18.93 18.76 -0.17 196 2.09 5.45 3.36

2047 18.97 18.78 -0.19 197 2.10 5.47 3.36

2048 19.00 18.80 -0.20 197 2.12 5.49 3.37

2049 19.04 18.82 -0.22 197 2.13 5.50 3.38

2050 19.09 18.84 -0.24 198 2.14 5.52 3.38

2051 19.13 18.86 -0.27 198 2.15 5.54 3.39

2052 19.17 18.88 -0.29 197 2.15 5.55 3.40

2053 19.22 18.90 -0.32 197 2.16 5.57 3.40

2054 19.27 18.91 -0.36 197 2.17 5.58 3.41

2055 19.33 18.93 -0.40 196 2.18 5.60 3.42

2056 19.39 18.95 -0.44 195 2.19 5.61 3.42

2057 19.46 18.97 -0.49 193 2.20 5.62 3.43

2058 19.53 18.99 -0.54 192 2.20 5.64 3.43

2059 19.60 19.01 -0.59 190 2.21 5.65 3.44

2060 19.67 19.02 -0.65 188 2.22 5.66 3.44

2061 19.74 19.04 -0.70 186 2.23 5.68 3.45

2062 19.81 19.06 -0.75 183 2.24 5.69 3.45

2063 19.87 19.07 -0.80 180 2.24 5.70 3.46

2064 19.93 19.09 -0.84 177 2.25 5.71 3.46

2065 19.99 19.11 -0.88 174 2.26 5.72 3.47

2066 20.05 19.12 -0.92 171 2.27 5.74 3.47

2067 20.11 19.14 -0.97 167 2.27 5.75 3.47

2068 20.17 19.15 -1.02 163 2.28 5.76 3.48

2069 20.23 19.17 -1.07 159 2.29 5.77 3.48

2070 20.30 19.18 -1.12 155 2.30 5.78 3.48

2071 20.36 19.20 -1.16 151 2.30 5.79 3.49

2072 20.42 19.21 -1.21 146 2.31 5.80 3.49

2073 20.48 19.23 -1.26 141 2.32 5.81 3.49

2074 20.54 19.24 -1.30 136 2.33 5.82 3.49

2075 20.59 19.25 -1.33 130 2.33 5.83 3.50

2076 20.62 19.26 -1.36 125 2.34 5.84 3.50

2077 20.65 19.28 -1.38 119 2.34 5.85 3.51

2078 20.66 19.29 -1.38 114 2.34 5.86 3.51

2079 20.66 19.30 -1.36 108 2.34 5.87 3.52

2080 20.65 19.30 -1.34 103 2.34 5.88 3.53

2081 20.62 19.31 -1.31 97 2.34 5.88 3.54

2082 20.59 19.32 -1.27 92 2.34 5.89 3.55

2083 20.54 19.33 -1.22 87 2.34 5.90 3.56

2084 20.49 19.33 -1.16 82 2.33 5.91 3.58

2085 20.44 19.34 -1.10 77 2.33 5.92 3.59

2086 20.37 19.34 -1.03 73 2.32 5.93 3.60

2087 20.30 19.34 -0.95 69 2.32 5.93 3.62

2088 20.23 19.35 -0.88 65 2.31 5.94 3.63

2089 20.16 19.35 -0.81 61 2.30 5.95 3.64

2090 20.09 19.35 -0.74 58 2.30 5.95 3.66

2091 20.03 19.36 -0.68 55 2.29 5.96 3.67

2092 19.99 19.36 -0.63 52 2.29 5.97 3.68

2093 19.96 19.36 -0.59 50 2.28 5.97 3.69

2094 19.93 19.37 -0.56 47 2.28 5.98 3.70

2095 19.92 19.37 -0.55 45 2.28 5.99 3.71

2096 19.92 19.38 -0.54 43 2.28 5.99 3.71

2097 19.93 19.39 -0.54 40 2.28 6.00 3.72

Summarized Rates: OASDI Summarized Rates: OASDI

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Year of reserve 

depletion1

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

2022 - 2096 19.25% 19.13% -0.12% N/A 2.05% 5.35% 3.30%

Office of the Chief Actuary

Note: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2022 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration

1

Under current law the year of combined Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2035. February 13, 2023

Proposal Change from Current Law

Expressed as a percentage of current-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of current-law

taxable payroll
Table 1a - General Fund Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Reserves, and Theoretical OASDI Reserves

"Social Security Expansion Act", Introduced by Senator Sanders

Percentage

of Payroll

Annual

Amounts

Accumulated as of 

End of Year

Gross Domestic 

Product

Without General

Fund Transfers

With Plan General

Fund Transfers

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,742.4 24,670.2 2,742.4 2,742.4

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,628.4 25,333.6 2,628.4 2,628.4

2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,755.6 25,907.1 2,490.8 2,490.8

2025 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,894.6 26,444.2 2,331.1 2,331.1

2026 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,028.7 26,928.8 2,156.8 2,156.8

2027 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,147.5 27,371.7 1,959.8 1,959.8

2028 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,248.9 27,763.6 1,741.2 1,741.2

2029 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,333.6 28,119.0 1,502.6 1,502.6

2030 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,401.6 28,408.3 1,244.3 1,244.3

2031 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,454.2 28,622.8 968.1 968.1

2032 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,497.1 28,765.3 675.8 675.8

2033 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,531.1 28,828.0 370.4 370.4

2034 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,559.6 28,790.9 54.8 54.8

2035 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,583.6 28,673.1 -268.1 -268.1

2036 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,599.3 28,513.6 -595.9 -595.9

2037 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,606.8 28,324.8 -928.1 -928.1

2038 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,608.0 28,137.7 -1,263.3 -1,263.3

2039 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,604.8 27,941.1 -1,599.7 -1,599.7

2040 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,598.9 27,743.7 -1,935.8 -1,935.8

2041 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,591.2 27,541.8 -2,270.6 -2,270.6

2042 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,581.4 27,341.5 -2,604.5 -2,604.5

2043 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,570.6 27,144.6 -2,937.0 -2,937.0

2044 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,558.4 26,948.3 -3,268.1 -3,268.1

2045 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,545.1 26,757.4 -3,597.9 -3,597.9

2046 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,531.1 26,570.0 -3,926.3 -3,926.3

2047 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,515.6 26,384.5 -4,253.8 -4,253.8

2048 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,498.8 26,206.1 -4,580.7 -4,580.7

2049 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,480.7 26,030.9 -4,907.1 -4,907.1

2050 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,460.6 25,861.5 -5,233.6 -5,233.6

2051 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,438.6 25,694.2 -5,560.0 -5,560.0

2052 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,414.9 25,529.0 -5,886.6 -5,886.6

2053 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,388.6 25,365.7 -6,213.9 -6,213.9

2054 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,359.4 25,203.7 -6,542.1 -6,542.1

2055 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,327.0 25,044.6 -6,871.9 -6,871.9

2056 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,291.0 24,887.4 -7,203.5 -7,203.5

2057 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,251.1 24,731.9 -7,537.2 -7,537.2

2058 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,207.1 24,577.6 -7,873.3 -7,873.3

2059 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,158.9 24,422.8 -8,211.8 -8,211.8

2060 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,106.6 24,268.8 -8,552.6 -8,552.6

2061 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,050.4 24,113.7 -8,895.5 -8,895.5

2062 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,990.5 23,958.9 -9,240.2 -9,240.2

2063 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,927.3 23,803.0 -9,586.4 -9,586.4

2064 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,861.1 23,646.1 -9,933.9 -9,933.9

2065 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,792.0 23,488.7 -10,282.4 -10,282.4

2066 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,720.0 23,330.7 -10,632.1 -10,632.1

2067 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,645.1 23,172.4 -10,982.7 -10,982.7

2068 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,567.1 23,014.1 -11,334.5 -11,334.5

2069 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,485.8 22,854.0 -11,687.5 -11,687.5

2070 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,401.3 22,693.2 -12,041.8 -12,041.8

2071 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,313.9 22,533.2 -12,397.0 -12,397.0

2072 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,223.7 22,374.2 -12,753.1 -12,753.1

2073 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,130.8 22,217.6 -13,110.0 -13,110.0

2074 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,035.4 22,065.4 -13,467.4 -13,467.4

2075 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,938.1 21,915.7 -13,825.0 -13,825.0

2076 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,839.7 21,768.5 -14,181.9 -14,181.9

2077 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,740.8 21,623.0 -14,537.7 -14,537.7

2078 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,642.7 21,481.9 -14,891.3 -14,891.3

2079 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,546.1 21,344.5 -15,242.0 -15,242.0

2080 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,451.9 21,210.9 -15,589.0 -15,589.0

2081 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,360.7 21,080.5 -15,931.9 -15,931.9

2082 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,273.1 20,953.7 -16,270.3 -16,270.3

2083 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,189.5 20,831.5 -16,603.6 -16,603.6

2084 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,110.4 20,711.1 -16,931.7 -16,931.7

2085 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,036.1 20,594.6 -17,254.1 -17,254.1

2086 0.0 0.0 0.0 967.1 20,479.3 -17,570.5 -17,570.5

2087 0.0 0.0 0.0 903.7 20,366.1 -17,880.7 -17,880.7

2088 0.0 0.0 0.0 845.8 20,254.0 -18,184.7 -18,184.7

2089 0.0 0.0 0.0 793.2 20,142.8 -18,482.8 -18,482.8

2090 0.0 0.0 0.0 745.5 20,032.9 -18,775.3 -18,775.3

2091 0.0 0.0 0.0 702.0 19,922.5 -19,062.9 -19,062.9

2092 0.0 0.0 0.0 661.9 19,811.5 -19,346.2 -19,346.2

2093 0.0 0.0 0.0 624.6 19,699.9 -19,625.9 -19,625.9

2094 0.0 0.0 0.0 589.3 19,587.1 -19,902.6 -19,902.6

2095 0.0 0.0 0.0 555.4 19,473.8 -20,176.8 -20,176.8

2096 0.0 0.0 0.0 522.3 19,359.0 -20,449.2 -20,449.2

2097 0.0 0.0 0.0 489.5 19,243.1 -20,720.3 -20,720.3

Total 2022-2096 0.0

Notes: Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2022 Trustees Report.

 Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.3%. Office of the Chief Actuary

1

 Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption Social Security Administration

 that the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury. February 13, 2023

Calendar

Year

Proposal General Fund Transfers Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2022

Proposal

Total OASDI

Trust Fund

Reserves 

at End of Year

Theoretical Social Security1

with Borrowing Authority

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 

1-1-2022 Net OASDI Trust Fund Reserves at End of Year
Table 1b - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget Scoring1

 and Federal Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI (Present Value Do

"Social Security Expansion Act", Introduced by Senator Sanders

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Cash Flow

Change in Total

Federal Debt

 Subject to Limit 

End Of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 264.8 264.8 -264.8 264.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 298.7 298.7 -563.5 304.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2026 0.0 308.4 308.4 -871.9 321.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2027 0.0 315.8 315.8 -1,187.7 337.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2028 0.0 320.0 320.0 -1,507.7 351.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2029 0.0 323.4 323.4 -1,831.1 366.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2030 0.0 326.3 326.3 -2,157.4 382.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2031 0.0 328.7 328.7 -2,486.0 400.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2032 0.0 335.2 335.2 -2,821.2 423.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2033 0.0 339.5 339.5 -3,160.7 449.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2034 0.0 344.1 344.1 -3,504.8 477.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2035 0.0 346.8 346.8 -3,851.6 501.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2036 0.0 343.5 343.5 -4,195.2 515.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2037 0.0 339.8 339.8 -4,534.9 528.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2038 0.0 336.4 336.4 -4,871.3 541.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2039 0.0 333.1 333.1 -5,204.4 553.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2040 0.0 330.2 330.2 -5,534.6 566.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2041 0.0 327.2 327.2 -5,861.8 578.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2042 0.0 324.2 324.2 -6,186.0 590.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2043 0.0 321.6 321.6 -6,507.6 602.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2044 0.0 319.0 319.0 -6,826.5 614.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2045 0.0 316.6 316.6 -7,143.1 626.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2046 0.0 314.3 314.3 -7,457.4 638.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2047 0.0 312.0 312.0 -7,769.4 650.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2048 0.0 310.1 310.1 -8,079.5 662.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2049 0.0 308.2 308.2 -8,387.7 675.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2050 0.0 306.4 306.4 -8,694.1 687.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2051 0.0 304.6 304.6 -8,998.7 699.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2052 0.0 302.9 302.9 -9,301.5 711.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2053 0.0 300.9 300.9 -9,602.5 723.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2054 0.0 299.1 299.1 -9,901.6 735.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2055 0.0 297.4 297.4 -10,198.9 746.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2056 0.0 295.6 295.6 -10,494.5 758.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2057 0.0 293.8 293.8 -10,788.3 770.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2058 0.0 292.1 292.1 -11,080.4 781.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2059 0.0 290.3 290.3 -11,370.7 793.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2060 0.0 288.5 288.5 -11,659.2 804.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2061 0.0 286.7 286.7 -11,945.9 815.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2062 0.0 284.8 284.8 -12,230.7 827.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2063 0.0 283.0 283.0 -12,513.8 838.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2064 0.0 281.2 281.2 -12,795.0 849.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2065 0.0 279.4 279.4 -13,074.4 860.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2066 0.0 277.6 277.6 -13,352.1 871.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2067 0.0 275.7 275.7 -13,627.8 881.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2068 0.0 273.8 273.8 -13,901.6 892.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2069 0.0 271.8 271.8 -14,173.3 902.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2070 0.0 269.8 269.8 -14,443.1 913.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2071 0.0 267.9 267.9 -14,711.0 923.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2072 0.0 265.9 265.9 -14,976.9 933.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2073 0.0 263.9 263.9 -15,240.8 943.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2074 0.0 262.0 262.0 -15,502.9 953.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2075 0.0 260.2 260.2 -15,763.1 963.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2076 0.0 258.5 258.5 -16,021.6 974.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2077 0.0 256.9 256.9 -16,278.5 984.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2078 0.0 255.5 255.5 -16,534.0 994.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2079 0.0 254.1 254.1 -16,788.1 1,004.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2080 0.0 252.9 252.9 -17,040.9 1,015.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2081 0.0 251.7 251.7 -17,292.7 1,025.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2082 0.0 250.7 250.7 -17,543.4 1,035.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2083 0.0 249.8 249.8 -17,793.2 1,046.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2084 0.0 248.9 248.9 -18,042.1 1,056.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2085 0.0 248.1 248.1 -18,290.2 1,067.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2086 0.0 247.4 247.4 -18,537.6 1,077.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2087 0.0 246.8 246.8 -18,784.4 1,088.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2088 0.0 246.1 246.1 -19,030.5 1,098.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2089 0.0 245.5 245.5 -19,276.0 1,109.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2090 0.0 244.8 244.8 -19,520.8 1,119.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2091 0.0 244.1 244.1 -19,764.8 1,130.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2092 0.0 243.2 243.2 -20,008.1 1,140.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2093 0.0 242.4 242.4 -20,250.4 1,150.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2094 0.0 241.4 241.4 -20,491.9 1,160.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2095 0.0 240.4 240.4 -20,732.3 1,170.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2096 0.0 239.3 239.3 -20,971.6 1,180.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total 2022-2096 0.0 20,971.6 20,971.6

Notes: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2022 Trustees Report.

 Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.3%.

 Budget cash flows do not reflect effects on the Medicare Hospital Insurance Trust Fund of income taxation of OASDI benefits. Office of the Chief Actuary

1 Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would nonetheless Social Security Administration

 be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. February 13, 2023

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2022
Table 1b - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget Scoring1

 and Federal Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI (Nominal Dollars)

"Social Security Expansion Act", Introduced by Senator Sanders

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year2

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance2

Change in 

Annual On 

Budget Cash 

Flow

Change in Total

Federal Debt 

Subject to Limit 

End of Year2

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance2

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 279.5 279.5 -282.7 282.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 322.2 322.2 -614.9 332.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2026 0.0 340.1 340.1 -973.8 358.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2027 0.0 356.7 356.7 -1,360.2 386.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2028 0.0 370.9 370.9 -1,773.9 413.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2029 0.0 385.4 385.4 -2,217.3 443.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2030 0.0 400.7 400.7 -2,694.8 477.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2031 0.0 416.9 416.9 -3,211.6 516.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2032 0.0 440.4 440.4 -3,776.5 565.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Notes: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2022 Trustees Report.

 Budget cash flows do not reflect effects on the Medicare Hospital Insurance Trust Fund of income taxation of OASDI benefits

1 Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would nonetheless Office of the Chief Actuary

 be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. Social Security Administration

2 Includes the effect of accumulated interest income. February 13, 2023

Billions of Nominal Dollars
Table 1c - Current Law and Proposal Cost, Expenditures, and Income: As Percent of Gross Domestic Product

"Social Security Expansion Act", Introduced by Senator Sanders

Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

2022 4.98 4.98 4.53 4.98 4.98 4.53

2023 5.09 5.09 4.63 5.09 5.09 4.63

2024 5.17 5.17 4.63 5.66 5.66 6.15

2025 5.26 5.26 4.66 5.76 5.76 6.28

2026 5.36 5.36 4.71 5.88 5.88 6.37

2027 5.45 5.45 4.73 5.99 5.99 6.42

2028 5.54 5.54 4.75 6.10 6.10 6.46

2029 5.62 5.62 4.77 6.20 6.20 6.50

2030 5.69 5.69 4.78 6.29 6.29 6.52

2031 5.76 5.76 4.79 6.38 6.38 6.55

2032 5.81 5.81 4.79 6.44 6.44 6.58

2033 5.85 5.85 4.79 6.49 6.49 6.60

2034 5.88 5.88 4.78 6.54 6.54 6.63

2035 5.90 4.96 4.77 6.57 6.57 6.65

2036 5.92 4.77 4.77 6.60 6.60 6.65

2037 5.94 4.76 4.76 6.62 6.62 6.64

2038 5.95 4.75 4.75 6.64 6.64 6.64

2039 5.95 4.74 4.74 6.65 6.65 6.64

2040 5.95 4.73 4.73 6.66 6.66 6.63

2041 5.95 4.72 4.72 6.66 6.66 6.62

2042 5.94 4.72 4.72 6.66 6.66 6.62

2043 5.94 4.71 4.71 6.66 6.66 6.61

2044 5.93 4.70 4.70 6.66 6.66 6.61

2045 5.93 4.69 4.69 6.66 6.66 6.60

2046 5.92 4.68 4.68 6.66 6.66 6.60

2047 5.92 4.67 4.67 6.66 6.66 6.59

2048 5.92 4.67 4.67 6.66 6.66 6.59

2049 5.92 4.66 4.66 6.66 6.66 6.59

2050 5.92 4.65 4.65 6.67 6.67 6.58

2051 5.92 4.65 4.65 6.67 6.67 6.58

2052 5.93 4.64 4.64 6.68 6.68 6.58

2053 5.93 4.64 4.64 6.68 6.68 6.57

2054 5.94 4.63 4.63 6.69 6.69 6.57

2055 5.95 4.62 4.62 6.70 6.70 6.57

2056 5.96 4.62 4.62 6.72 6.72 6.56

2057 5.97 4.62 4.62 6.73 6.73 6.56

2058 5.99 4.61 4.61 6.75 6.75 6.56

2059 6.00 4.61 4.61 6.76 6.76 6.56

2060 6.01 4.60 4.60 6.78 6.78 6.56

2061 6.03 4.60 4.60 6.79 6.79 6.55

2062 6.04 4.60 4.60 6.81 6.81 6.55

2063 6.05 4.59 4.59 6.82 6.82 6.55

2064 6.06 4.59 4.59 6.84 6.84 6.55

2065 6.07 4.58 4.58 6.85 6.85 6.55

2066 6.08 4.58 4.58 6.86 6.86 6.54

2067 6.10 4.58 4.58 6.87 6.87 6.54

2068 6.11 4.57 4.57 6.89 6.89 6.54

2069 6.12 4.57 4.57 6.90 6.90 6.54

2070 6.13 4.57 4.57 6.91 6.91 6.53

2071 6.14 4.56 4.56 6.93 6.93 6.53

2072 6.16 4.56 4.56 6.94 6.94 6.53

2073 6.17 4.56 4.56 6.95 6.95 6.53

2074 6.18 4.55 4.55 6.97 6.97 6.53

2075 6.18 4.55 4.55 6.97 6.97 6.52

2076 6.19 4.54 4.54 6.98 6.98 6.52

2077 6.19 4.54 4.54 6.98 6.98 6.52

2078 6.19 4.53 4.53 6.98 6.98 6.51

2079 6.18 4.53 4.53 6.97 6.97 6.51

2080 6.17 4.52 4.52 6.96 6.96 6.50

2081 6.15 4.52 4.52 6.94 6.94 6.50

2082 6.13 4.51 4.51 6.92 6.92 6.50

2083 6.11 4.51 4.51 6.90 6.90 6.49

2084 6.09 4.50 4.50 6.87 6.87 6.48

2085 6.07 4.50 4.50 6.85 6.85 6.48

2086 6.04 4.49 4.49 6.82 6.82 6.47

2087 6.01 4.48 4.48 6.79 6.79 6.47

2088 5.99 4.48 4.48 6.76 6.76 6.46

2089 5.96 4.47 4.47 6.73 6.73 6.46

2090 5.93 4.47 4.47 6.70 6.70 6.45

2091 5.91 4.46 4.46 6.68 6.68 6.45

2092 5.90 4.46 4.46 6.66 6.66 6.45

2093 5.88 4.46 4.46 6.64 6.64 6.44

2094 5.87 4.45 4.45 6.63 6.63 6.44

2095 5.86 4.45 4.45 6.62 6.62 6.44

2096 5.86 4.45 4.45 6.62 6.62 6.44

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Note: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2022 Trustees Report.

Current Law OASDI Proposal OASDI

Calendar

Year

February 13, 2023
Table 1d - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Reserves / Unfunded Obligation (Present Value Dollars)

"Social Security Expansion Act", Introduced by Senator Sanders

Year

Current Law OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Income - Cost

Total Change

Through

End of Year

Proposal OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) = cumulative sum(4) (6) = (1)+(5)

2022 2,742.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,742.4

2023 2,628.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,628.4

2024 2,490.8 392.7 127.9 264.8 264.8 2,755.6

2025 2,331.1 431.0 132.3 298.7 563.5 2,894.6

2026 2,156.8 448.4 140.0 308.4 871.9 3,028.7

2027 1,959.8 463.7 148.0 315.8 1,187.7 3,147.5

2028 1,741.2 475.7 155.7 320.0 1,507.7 3,248.9

2029 1,502.6 486.3 162.9 323.4 1,831.1 3,333.6

2030 1,244.3 495.9 169.6 326.3 2,157.4 3,401.6

2031 968.1 504.6 175.9 328.7 2,486.0 3,454.2

2032 675.8 516.2 181.1 335.2 2,821.2 3,497.1

2033 370.4 524.9 185.5 339.5 3,160.7 3,531.1

2034 54.8 533.0 188.9 344.1 3,504.8 3,559.6

2035 -268.1 538.3 191.4 346.8 3,851.6 3,583.6

2036 -595.9 536.8 193.3 343.5 4,195.2 3,599.3

2037 -928.1 534.4 194.7 339.8 4,534.9 3,606.8

2038 -1,263.3 532.1 195.7 336.4 4,871.3 3,608.0

2039 -1,599.7 529.5 196.4 333.1 5,204.4 3,604.8

2040 -1,935.8 526.9 196.7 330.2 5,534.6 3,598.9

2041 -2,270.6 523.9 196.7 327.2 5,861.8 3,591.2

2042 -2,604.5 520.9 196.7 324.2 6,186.0 3,581.4

2043 -2,937.0 518.1 196.6 321.6 6,507.6 3,570.6

2044 -3,268.1 515.3 196.3 319.0 6,826.5 3,558.4

2045 -3,597.9 512.5 195.9 316.6 7,143.1 3,545.1

2046 -3,926.3 509.7 195.4 314.3 7,457.4 3,531.1

2047 -4,253.8 507.0 194.9 312.0 7,769.4 3,515.6

2048 -4,580.7 504.5 194.3 310.1 8,079.5 3,498.8

2049 -4,907.1 501.9 193.7 308.2 8,387.7 3,480.7

2050 -5,233.6 499.4 193.1 306.4 8,694.1 3,460.6

2051 -5,560.0 496.9 192.4 304.6 8,998.7 3,438.6

2052 -5,886.6 494.4 191.6 302.9 9,301.5 3,414.9

2053 -6,213.9 491.7 190.8 300.9 9,602.5 3,388.6

2054 -6,542.1 489.1 190.0 299.1 9,901.6 3,359.4

2055 -6,871.9 486.6 189.3 297.4 10,198.9 3,327.0

2056 -7,203.5 484.1 188.6 295.6 10,494.5 3,291.0

2057 -7,537.2 481.7 187.9 293.8 10,788.3 3,251.1

2058 -7,873.3 479.3 187.2 292.1 11,080.4 3,207.1

2059 -8,211.8 476.8 186.5 290.3 11,370.7 3,158.9

2060 -8,552.6 474.3 185.8 288.5 11,659.2 3,106.6

2061 -8,895.5 471.7 185.0 286.7 11,945.9 3,050.4

2062 -9,240.2 469.1 184.2 284.8 12,230.7 2,990.5

2063 -9,586.4 466.5 183.5 283.0 12,513.8 2,927.3

2064 -9,933.9 463.9 182.6 281.2 12,795.0 2,861.1

2065 -10,282.4 461.2 181.8 279.4 13,074.4 2,792.0

2066 -10,632.1 458.6 180.9 277.6 13,352.1 2,720.0

2067 -10,982.7 455.8 180.1 275.7 13,627.8 2,645.1

2068 -11,334.5 453.0 179.2 273.8 13,901.6 2,567.1

2069 -11,687.5 450.2 178.4 271.8 14,173.3 2,485.8

2070 -12,041.8 447.3 177.6 269.8 14,443.1 2,401.3

2071 -12,397.0 444.6 176.7 267.9 14,711.0 2,313.9

2072 -12,753.1 441.7 175.8 265.9 14,976.9 2,223.7

2073 -13,110.0 438.9 175.0 263.9 15,240.8 2,130.8

2074 -13,467.4 436.1 174.1 262.0 15,502.9 2,035.4

2075 -13,825.0 433.4 173.2 260.2 15,763.1 1,938.1

2076 -14,181.9 430.7 172.2 258.5 16,021.6 1,839.7

2077 -14,537.7 428.1 171.2 256.9 16,278.5 1,740.8

2078 -14,891.3 425.5 170.0 255.5 16,534.0 1,642.7

2079 -15,242.0 422.9 168.9 254.1 16,788.1 1,546.1

2080 -15,589.0 420.5 167.6 252.9 17,040.9 1,451.9

2081 -15,931.9 418.1 166.3 251.7 17,292.7 1,360.7

2082 -16,270.3 415.7 165.0 250.7 17,543.4 1,273.1

2083 -16,603.6 413.4 163.6 249.8 17,793.2 1,189.5

2084 -16,931.7 411.1 162.2 248.9 18,042.1 1,110.4

2085 -17,254.1 408.9 160.8 248.1 18,290.2 1,036.1

2086 -17,570.5 406.8 159.3 247.4 18,537.6 967.1

2087 -17,880.7 404.6 157.9 246.8 18,784.4 903.7

2088 -18,184.7 402.5 156.4 246.1 19,030.5 845.8

2089 -18,482.8 400.4 155.0 245.5 19,276.0 793.2

2090 -18,775.3 398.4 153.6 244.8 19,520.8 745.5

2091 -19,062.9 396.3 152.2 244.1 19,764.8 702.0

2092 -19,346.2 394.2 151.0 243.2 20,008.1 661.9

2093 -19,625.9 392.2 149.8 242.4 20,250.4 624.6

2094 -19,902.6 390.1 148.6 241.4 20,491.9 589.3

2095 -20,176.8 388.0 147.6 240.4 20,732.3 555.4

2096 -20,449.2 385.9 146.5 239.3 20,971.6 522.3

Total 2022-2096 33,784.5 12,812.9 20,971.6

Office of the Chief Actuary

Notes: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2022 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration

 Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.3%. February 13, 2023

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2022
Table 1d.n - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Reserves / Unfunded Obligation (Nominal Dollars)

"Social Security Expansion Act", Introduced by Senator Sanders

Year

Current Law OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Income - Cost

Total Change

Through

End of Year1

Proposal OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) (6) = (1)+(5)

2022 2,805.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,805.2

2023 2,747.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,747.0

2024 2,658.9 417.8 135.1 282.7 282.7 2,941.6

2025 2,543.1 474.9 142.7 332.2 614.9 3,158.0

2026 2,408.0 513.4 154.5 358.9 973.8 3,381.8

2027 2,243.4 553.7 167.2 386.4 1,360.2 3,603.6

2028 2,047.4 594.3 180.6 413.7 1,773.9 3,821.3

2029 1,818.6 637.7 194.3 443.4 2,217.3 4,035.9

2030 1,553.7 686.0 208.5 477.5 2,694.8 4,248.5

2031 1,250.8 740.1 223.4 516.8 3,211.6 4,462.3

2032 905.4 803.1 238.2 565.0 3,776.5 4,682.0

Notes: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2022 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

 Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.3%. Social Security Administration

1 Includes the effect of accumulated interest income. February 13, 2023

Billions of Nominal Dollars