SOCIAL SECURITY

MEMORANDUM 

Date: April 14, 2005 Refer To: TCA

To: Robert M. Ball 

From: Stephen C. Goss 

Chief Actuary 

Subject: Estimated OASDI Financial Effects for a Proposal With Six Provisions That Would Improve 

Social Security Financing --INFORMATION 

This memorandum provides estimates for a proposal that you have developed. The attached 

tables 1 and 2 provide estimates of the effects of the six provisions reflecting both the expected 

future average return on equities (tables 1) and a low-yield assumption for equities (tables 2). 

The estimates and descriptions below reflect our understanding of your intent for this proposal. 

All estimates reflect the intermediate assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report plus additional 

assumptions described below. These estimates reflect contributions from many individuals in 

the Office of the Chief Actuary, particularly Alice Wade, Jason Schultz, Bill Piet, and Chris 

Chaplain. 

The combined effect of the six provisions is expected to eliminate the 75-year long-range 

actuarial deficit for the OASDI program and leave a significant positive actuarial balance of 

about 0.65 percent of taxable payroll using the expected equity yield. The ratio of trust fund 

assets to annual program cost (TFR) is projected to rise consistently throughout the 75-year 

period. However, the growth in the TFR slows toward the end of the period and annual deficits 

are gradually increasing, so that some additional “maintenance” of the provisions would 

eventually be needed after the 75-year period to maintain sustainable solvency. The proposal in 

fact recommends such further changes in the form of the balancing tax rate. Even in the 

absence of such maintenance, the Social Security program would be expected to be solvent for 

several decades beyond the end of the 75-year period. 

With the low-yield assumption for equities, the OASDI program would still be projected to be 

solvent for the 75-year long-range period, but would require larger balancing tax rate increases 

to achieve sustainable solvency. 

Descriptions of Six Provisions

1. Increase the OASDI contribution and benefit base by an additional 2 percent (beyond

wage indexing) for years 2006 through 2043. This change is projected to result in

90 percent of OASDI covered earnings being taxable for 2043 and later. About

6 percent of covered workers have earnings above the current-law taxable maximum
2

each year, and would thus be affected by this provision. This provision alone would 

reduce the OASDI actuarial deficit by an estimated 0.61 percent of payroll. 

2. Require that a federal tax be imposed on the value of all estates with assets in excess 

of $3.5 million for deaths in 2010 and later. The tax would be 45 percent of any 

assets in excess of $3.5 million, and the tax revenue would be credited entirely to the 

OASI and DI trust funds. The $3.5 million dollar exemption would be fixed (not 

indexed) for years after 2010. The levels of the estate tax rate and exemption are 

equal to those provided in current law for 2009. Under current law, the estate tax 

would be repealed for 2010, but would be restored with a lower exemption and a 

higher rate than in effect for 2009. Thus, this provision would effectively redirect a 

substantial portion of the revenue from the estate tax for years 2011 and later from 

the general fund of the Treasury to the Social Security trust funds. This provision is 

projected to reduce the long-range actuarial deficit of the OASDI program by an 

estimated 0.51 percent of taxable payroll. 

3. Gradually invest 20 percent of the OASDI program trust fund assets in equities. In 

2006, invest 1 percent of trust fund assets in a broad based indexed fund representing 

all equities for corporations based in the United States, such as the Wilshire 5000. In 

each subsequent year, the percentage of trust fund assets invested in equities would 

be increased by 1 percentage point, until 20 percent of assets are invested in equities, 

by the end of 2025. This percentage would be maintained thereafter by periodic 

rebalancing of assets between equities and special obligations of the Treasury. In no 

case, however, would the trust funds be allowed to hold more than 15 percent of the 

total value of all equities represented in the broad index. 

Subtotal for Provisions 1 through 3--The combined effect of provisions 1 through 3 

would reduce the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit from 1.89 percent of payroll by 

1.47 percent to a deficit of 0.41 percent of payroll. The resulting actuarial deficit would 

be less than 5 percent of the long-range summarized cost rate and so the program would 

meet the test of long-range close actuarial balance with just these provisions. 

4. Effective December 2006, base the OASDI COLA on a new CPI-W series that would 

reflect a superlative formula, of the type currently used for the new “chained” 

CCPI-U. This provision is assumed to reduce the OASDI annual COLA by an 

average of 0.22 percentage point. This provision alone would reduce the OASDI 

actuarial deficit by an estimated 0.35 percent of payroll. 

5. Cover under the OASDI program the earnings of all State and local government 

employees hired in 2009 and later. This provision alone would reduce the OASDI 

actuarial deficit by an estimated 0.19 percent of payroll. 

Subtotal for Provisions 1 through 5--The combined effect of provisions 1 through 5 

would improve the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by 1.94 percent of payroll 

resulting in an estimated positive actuarial balance of 0.05 percent of payroll. 
3

6. Provide for a “balancing tax rate” increase to be effective starting in the first year for 

which the OASDI combined trust fund ratio (TFR) would otherwise begin to decline 

under projections reflecting the 5 provisions above, based in the intermediate 

assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report. The size of the balancing tax rate increase 

would be set sufficient to provide for an increasing TFR throughout the 75-year 

projection period ending with 2078. As shown in table 1, a balancing tax rate 

increase of 0.5 percent for employers and employees, each, (1 percent for selfemployment earnings) would be applied starting in 2023 based on this specification. 

The incremental effect of this provision on the long-range actuarial balance is 

projected to be an increase of 0.60 percent of payroll. The proposal would also 

include a recommendation to future Congresses to adjust the balancing tax rate 

increase in subsequent years, if needed to continue to maintain a stable or rising TFR. 

Total for Provisions 1 through 6--The combined effect of all 6 provisions would be to 

improve the long-range actuarial balance of the OASDI program by 2.54 percent of 

payroll to a positive actuarial balance of about 0.65 percent of taxable payroll with 

expected returns on equities. With a low-yield assumption for equities, equivalent to a 

“risk-adjusted” return equal to that assumed for long-term Treasury bonds, the longrange actuarial balance would be expected to be improved by 2.23 percent of payroll to a 

positive balance of 0.35 percent of payroll. 

Assumptions

As stated above, all estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2004 Trustees 

Report. However, several additional assumptions were used in these estimates. 

Estimates of the effect of the provision to tax estates of individuals dying in 2010 and later 

were made with the assistance of the Office of Tax Analysis of the Department of the 

Treasury, which provided guidance on the expected revenue for this provision under current 

law through 2009. Our estimates are based on the assumption that the combined value of 

estates for all persons dying in future years will remain at about the same percentage of gross 

domestic product (GDP) as estimated for 2009. On this basis, and reflecting the fixed 

exemption and tax rate for this provision, we estimate that revenue to the OASDI program 

would increase from 0.41 percent of taxable payroll in 2010 to 0.72 percent of payroll by 

2078. 

The long term average real return on equities of corporations based in the United States is 

assumed to average about 6.5 percent for investments made in future years, over long periods 

of time. Historically, total real equity returns have averaged around 7 percent. However, we 

believe that several factors including a somewhat lower perceived level of risk from equity 

investment will result in market pricing of equities that is somewhat higher than in the past, 

on average, and thus in somewhat lower long-term average returns. This lower average real 

return on equities is also consistent with the somewhat higher future average real interest rate 

on long-term Treasury bonds (3 percent assumed by the Social Security Trustees) than has 

been experienced over the long-term past. For trust fund assets invested in equities, an 

administrative expense of 0.0005 percent (0.5 basis point) is assumed annually. 
4

Results

Trust Fund Operations 

Table 1 provides projections of the financial operations of the OASDI program assuming that 

the proposed six provisions are enacted. With enactment of these six provisions assuming 

the expected real returns on equities, the year in which the annual cost of the program begins 

to exceed the annual income would be delayed 9 years, from 2018 under current law, to 

2027. The estimated year of combined OASDI Trust Fund exhaustion would be delayed to 

at least several decades beyond the end of the 75-year long-range period. And if the 

recommendation of the proposal to provide continued adjustments to the balancing tax rate is 

followed by future Congresses, then sustainable solvency would be maintained for the 

foreseeable future. 

Assets 

Table 1a provides estimates of the net annual purchase and sale of equities consistent with 

the expected return and the specifications for increasing equities to 20 percent of trust fund 

assets by the end of 2025, and rebalancing assets to maintain that percentage thereafter. 

Trust fund assets are shown by type: equities, Treasury securities, and total. Projected GDP 

is also shown. We assume that the total market value of all equities for domestically based 

corporations will generally be about equal to GDP. Because the trust fund assets held in 

equities are projected to remain well below 15 percent of GDP throughout the projection 

period, we assume that the limit on equities at 15 percent of the total market valuation will 

not be reached. For comparison, the net assets of the theoretical Social Security program 

where borrowing authority is provided in the law are shown in column 9. 

Budget Effects 

Table 1b provides projected effects of enactment of the six provisions on the unified budget 

of the federal government. These projected effects are for the change from the effects that 

are assumed in standard budget accounting under current law (where scheduled benefits are 

assumed to be paid in full with revenue from the general fund of the Treasury if needed, even 

after the trust funds are exhausted.) All estimates reflect the intermediate assumptions of the 

2004 Trustees Report, and thus are not directly comparable with budget projections made by 

OMB and CBO, using different assumptions. 

Table 1b provides estimates in present value, with all amounts discounted to January 1, 2004 

using the Treasury bond yield on assets held by the trust funds. Table 1b.c provides 

estimates in constant 2004 dollars. 

Purchase of equities for the trust funds is considered to be a budget expenditure. As a result, 

sale of equities when needed for rebalancing the assets in the trust fund are considered 

budget receipts. The balancing tax rate represents a budget receipt and thus improves budget 

cash flow. However, revenue from the estate tax represents an additional budget receipt only 

for 2010, the only year for which the estate tax would be eliminated under current law. 

The change in annual unified budget cash flow is accumulated at the trust fund bond yield to 

estimate the cumulative effect on federal debt held by the public. The change in the annual 
5

unified budget balance reflects both the change in budget cash flow and the interest on the 

change in the accumulated debt. 

 

Purchases of equities are projected to generally result in a reduction (negative effect) on 

unified budget cash flow through 2013. Thereafter, the effects of the other provisions are 

projected to dominate, resulting in positive effects. Publicly held debt would be increased 

through 2020, and reduced substantially thereafter. Annual unified budget balances would 

be generally worse through 2015, and better thereafter. 

Cash Flow from Trust Funds to General Fund 

Table 1c provides estimates of the net annual cash flow from the OASDI trust funds to the 

general fund of the Treasury. A comparison is provided with a theoretical Social Security 

program where transfers are made from the general fund to the trust funds whenever needed 

to pay scheduled benefits. 

Under current law, cash flow to the general fund changes from positive to negative in 2018, 

reaching 5.9 percent of payroll by 2078. Under the proposal, cash flow first becomes 

negative in 2027, and reaches 2.8 percent by 2078. For the 75-year period as a whole, the 

total net negative cash flow is reduced from $5.2 to $0.4 trillion in present value under the 

proposal. Present value amounts are computed reflecting the trust fund yield on assets held 

in Treasury securities. 

Change in Unfunded Obligations 

Table 1d illustrates the change from a $3.7 trillion present-value unfunded obligation over 

the 75-year long-range period under current law to a positive balance of $1.5 trillion in 

present value under the proposal. All values are shown in present value discounted to 

January 1, 2004 based on the Treasury security yield on trust fund assets. Only in column 7, 

where equities are assumed to be phased into trust fund asset holdings, does the presentvalue discounting reflect the overall asset yield assumed for the trust funds, including equity 

holdings. The table shows that the roughly $5 trillion improvement in the unfunded 

obligation is the result of $1 trillion from estate tax revenue, $1.5 trillion from the balancing 

tax rate, $2.2 trillion from the other provisions (excluding equity investment), and $0.4 

trillion from equity investment (the difference between columns 6 and 7). 

Taxable Payroll 

Table 1e provides the projected level of OASDI taxable payroll under present law and under 

the proposal. The provisions for increasing the contribution and benefit base and for 

covering newly hired State and local government employees would both increase the amount 

of earnings subject to payroll tax under the OASDI program. 

Sensitivity Analysis 

Tables 2 are similar to tables 1, except that the realized real return on equities is assumed to 

be equal to that on long-term Treasury bonds, 3 percent. In this case, the 1.0-percent total 

balancing tax rate increase for 2023 and later is not sufficient to attain a stable or rising trust 

fund as a percent of annual program cost by the end of the period. Thus, while 75-year 

solvency is expected to be fully restored through 2078, sustainable solvency would require 
6

larger balancing tax rate increases. Under this assumption, a balancing tax rate of 1.8 

percent total for 2021 and later is expected to meet the proposal goal of a stable or rising 

TFR at the end of 75 years. 

Conclusion 

The six-provision proposal is expected to restore solvency for the Social Security program 

through the next 75 years and for decades thereafter. With the expected equity yields and the 

specified balancing tax rate increase, trust fund ratios are projected to rise throughout the 75-

year period. However, to maintain sustainable solvency, and thus solvency for the 

foreseeable future, some maintenance of the balancing tax rate is expected to be needed after 

the end of the 75-year projection period, as recommended in the proposal. 

 Stephen C. Goss 

Attachments 
Table 1 Robert M. Ball Proposal--Six Provisions--with Expected Equity Yield

Estate Tax With Ult Real TF Int Rate of 3.70 Balancing Tax rate in 2023

$3.5Mill Exemption Change "Effective" Revenue

No Index, Trust Fund in OASDI OASDI from

45%Rate Cost Income Annual Ratio Balancing Contrib Contrib Estate

Year Rate Rate Balance 1-1-yr Tax Rate Rate Rate Tax

2004 11.07 12.71 1.64 306 12.40 0

2005 10.87 12.73 1.86 325 12.40 0

2006 10.73 12.73 2.00 347 12.40 0

2007 10.65 12.75 2.10 368 12.40 0

2008 10.65 12.78 2.14 388 12.40 0

2009 10.74 12.77 2.04 405 12.40 0

2010 10.79 13.20 2.41 422 0.4128 12.81 0.41

2011 10.87 13.25 2.38 442 0.0025 12.82 0.42

2012 11.04 13.28 2.24 460 0.0027 12.82 0.42

2013 11.22 13.31 2.09 476 0.0030 12.82 0.42

2014 11.40 13.32 1.92 491 0.0024 12.82 0.42

2015 11.61 13.34 1.73 503 0.0025 12.83 0.43

2016 11.84 13.36 1.52 513 0.0026 12.83 0.43

2017 12.08 13.38 1.30 522 0.0028 12.83 0.43

2018 12.33 13.39 1.07 529 0.0029 12.83 0.43

2019 12.59 13.41 0.82 534 0.0030 12.84 0.44

2020 12.86 13.43 0.57 538 0.0030 12.84 0.44

2021 13.13 13.45 0.32 540 0.0032 12.84 0.44

2022 13.39 13.47 0.08 542 0.0032 12.85 0.45

2023 13.65 14.49 0.84 542 1.00 1.0033 13.85 0.45

2024 13.89 14.51 0.62 549 1.00 0.0034 13.85 0.45

2025 14.14 14.53 0.39 554 1.00 0.0048 13.86 0.46

2026 14.37 14.55 0.18 559 1.00 0.0048 13.86 0.46

2027 14.58 14.56 -0.01 563 1.00 0.0048 13.87 0.47

2028 14.77 14.58 -0.19 567 1.00 0.0049 13.87 0.47

2029 14.94 14.60 -0.34 571 1.00 0.0051 13.88 0.48

2030 15.10 14.61 -0.48 575 1.00 0.0052 13.88 0.48

2031 15.24 14.63 -0.61 578 1.00 0.0052 13.89 0.49

2032 15.36 14.64 -0.72 581 1.00 0.0052 13.89 0.49

2033 15.46 14.66 -0.80 584 1.00 0.0053 13.90 0.50

2034 15.54 14.67 -0.87 588 1.00 0.0055 13.90 0.50

2035 15.60 14.68 -0.92 592 1.00 0.0056 13.91 0.51

2036 15.64 14.69 -0.95 597 1.00 0.0056 13.92 0.52

2037 15.67 14.70 -0.97 602 1.00 0.0056 13.92 0.52

2038 15.68 14.71 -0.97 607 1.00 0.0057 13.93 0.53

2039 15.68 14.72 -0.96 613 1.00 0.0058 13.93 0.53

2040 15.69 14.73 -0.96 620 1.00 0.0062 13.94 0.54

2041 15.70 14.73 -0.96 626 1.00 0.0063 13.94 0.54

2042 15.70 14.74 -0.96 633 1.00 0.0063 13.95 0.55

2043 15.71 14.75 -0.96 640 1.00 0.0032 13.95 0.55

2044 15.73 14.75 -0.97 647 1.00 0.0040 13.96 0.56

2045 15.76 14.76 -1.00 654 1.00 0.0043 13.96 0.56

2046 15.80 14.77 -1.03 661 1.00 0.0043 13.97 0.57

2047 15.84 14.78 -1.06 669 1.00 0.0043 13.97 0.57

2048 15.88 14.79 -1.09 676 1.00 0.0043 13.98 0.58

2049 15.92 14.79 -1.13 683 1.00 0.0044 13.98 0.58

2050 15.98 14.80 -1.18 689 1.00 0.0044 13.98 0.58

2051 16.04 14.81 -1.23 695 1.00 0.0045 13.99 0.59

2052 16.11 14.82 -1.29 701 1.00 0.0044 13.99 0.59

2053 16.18 14.83 -1.35 707 1.00 0.0044 14.00 0.60

2054 16.25 14.84 -1.41 712 1.00 0.0045 14.00 0.60

2055 16.33 14.85 -1.48 716 1.00 0.0046 14.01 0.61

2056 16.41 14.86 -1.55 721 1.00 0.0046 14.01 0.61

2057 16.49 14.87 -1.62 725 1.00 0.0046 14.02 0.62

2058 16.57 14.88 -1.68 729 1.00 0.0046 14.02 0.62

2059 16.64 14.89 -1.75 733 1.00 0.0047 14.03 0.63

2060 16.71 14.91 -1.81 736 1.00 0.0048 14.03 0.63

2061 16.79 14.92 -1.87 740 1.00 0.0048 14.03 0.63

2062 16.87 14.93 -1.94 743 1.00 0.0048 14.04 0.64

2063 16.95 14.94 -2.01 745 1.00 0.0048 14.04 0.64

2064 17.02 14.95 -2.08 748 1.00 0.0049 14.05 0.65

2065 17.09 14.96 -2.14 750 1.00 0.0049 14.05 0.65

2066 17.16 14.97 -2.20 753 1.00 0.0050 14.06 0.66

2067 17.23 14.98 -2.25 755 1.00 0.0050 14.06 0.66

2068 17.29 14.99 -2.31 757 1.00 0.0050 14.07 0.67

2069 17.36 15.00 -2.36 759 1.00 0.0051 14.07 0.67

2070 17.41 15.01 -2.41 760 1.00 0.0051 14.08 0.68

2071 17.47 15.01 -2.45 762 1.00 0.0052 14.08 0.68

2072 17.52 15.02 -2.50 764 1.00 0.0052 14.09 0.69

2073 17.57 15.03 -2.54 766 1.00 0.0053 14.09 0.69

2074 17.63 15.04 -2.59 767 1.00 0.0053 14.10 0.70

2075 17.68 15.05 -2.63 768 1.00 0.0053 14.11 0.71

2076 17.73 15.06 -2.67 769 1.00 0.0054 14.11 0.71

2077 17.78 15.07 -2.71 771 1.00 0.0054 14.12 0.72

2078 17.83 15.08 -2.76 771 1.00 0.0055 14.12 0.72

2079 17.89 15.09 -2.80 772 1.00 0.0054 14.13 0.73

 Summarized

CostRt IncRt ActBal Change in

2004 OASDI OASDI OASDI ActBal

-2078 14.21 14.87 0.65 2.54

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report Office of the Actuary

 With Ult Real TF Yield Rate of 3.7 Social Security Administration

 Ult Real Treas Bond Yield Rate3.0 April 13, 2005
Table 1 a Proposal GF Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Assets, Individual Account Assets, and Theoretical OASDI Assets

Trust Fund Trust Fund Total OASDI

Net Purchase or Assets Assets Trust Fund Theoretical Social Security 2/

Calendar Sale (negative) at End of Yr at End of Yr Assets with Borrowing Authority;

Year of Equities 1/ Equities Treas Bonds at End of Yr GDP Net OASDI TF Assets End of Yr 

 (1) (3) (4) (5) (7) (9)

Billions of Constant 2004 Dollars Billions of Constant 2004 Dollars

2004 0 0 1,684 1,684 11,544 1,684

2005 0 0 1,840 1,840 11,911 1,840

2006 20 20 1,980 2,000 12,246 1,998

2007 22 43 2,122 2,165 12,562 2,156

2008 24 70 2,265 2,335 12,870 2,315

2009 26 100 2,407 2,507 13,171 2,473

2010 29 136 2,575 2,710 13,466 2,631

2011 31 175 2,747 2,923 13,752 2,790

2012 33 220 2,919 3,138 14,024 2,944

2013 35 268 3,088 3,356 14,285 3,091

2014 36 322 3,254 3,576 14,547 3,230

2015 37 380 3,416 3,795 14,804 3,360

2016 37 442 3,572 4,014 15,061 3,478

2017 37 508 3,723 4,230 15,322 3,584

2018 37 578 3,866 4,444 15,586 3,675

2019 36 651 4,001 4,652 15,842 3,750

2020 34 728 4,125 4,852 16,100 3,805

2021 32 807 4,238 5,045 16,354 3,841

2022 29 889 4,342 5,231 16,610 3,857

2023 39 986 4,493 5,479 16,861 3,851

2024 37 1,087 4,635 5,722 17,117 3,823

2025 34 1,192 4,768 5,960 17,372 3,773

2026 -31 1,239 4,955 6,193 17,634 3,700

2027 -35 1,284 5,136 6,420 17,903 3,604

2028 -39 1,329 5,314 6,643 18,174 3,486

2029 -43 1,372 5,489 6,861 18,451 3,346

2030 -46 1,415 5,660 7,075 18,733 3,184

2031 -50 1,457 5,830 7,287 19,022 3,000

2032 -53 1,499 5,998 7,497 19,319 2,796

2033 -56 1,541 6,165 7,707 19,622 2,570

2034 -58 1,583 6,334 7,917 19,929 2,325

2035 -60 1,626 6,504 8,130 20,243 2,062

2036 -62 1,669 6,677 8,346 20,564 1,780

2037 -64 1,714 6,854 8,568 20,892 1,481

2038 -66 1,759 7,037 8,796 21,226 1,165

2039 -67 1,806 7,226 9,032 21,562 833

2040 -69 1,855 7,421 9,276 21,904 485

2041 -70 1,905 7,621 9,527 22,252 120

2042 -72 1,957 7,829 9,786 22,605 -262

2043 -74 2,011 8,042 10,053 22,961 -662

2044 -76 2,065 8,262 10,327 23,322 -1,080

2045 -78 2,121 8,486 10,607 23,687 -1,516

2046 -81 2,179 8,715 10,894 24,055 -1,972

2047 -83 2,237 8,948 11,186 24,426 -2,449

2048 -86 2,297 9,187 11,484 24,799 -2,946

2049 -89 2,358 9,430 11,788 25,174 -3,465

2050 -92 2,419 9,677 12,096 25,552 -4,008

2051 -95 2,482 9,927 12,409 25,936 -4,577

2052 -98 2,545 10,179 12,724 26,324 -5,172

2053 -102 2,609 10,435 13,043 26,721 -5,795

2054 -105 2,673 10,692 13,365 27,123 -6,447

2055 -109 2,738 10,951 13,688 27,528 -7,130

2056 -113 2,803 11,211 14,014 27,939 -7,845

2057 -117 2,868 11,472 14,340 28,354 -8,594

2058 -121 2,934 11,735 14,669 28,775 -9,378

2059 -125 3,000 11,999 14,999 29,204 -10,196

2060 -129 3,066 12,265 15,332 29,639 -11,052

2061 -133 3,133 12,532 15,665 30,078 -11,946

2062 -137 3,200 12,800 16,000 30,526 -12,880

2063 -141 3,267 13,068 16,335 30,978 -13,857

2064 -145 3,334 13,336 16,670 31,438 -14,876

2065 -149 3,401 13,605 17,007 31,906 -15,940

2066 -154 3,469 13,875 17,344 32,379 -17,050

2067 -158 3,537 14,146 17,683 32,861 -18,208

2068 -162 3,604 14,418 18,022 33,359 -19,414

2069 -166 3,673 14,691 18,363 33,859 -20,670

2070 -170 3,741 14,965 18,706 34,366 -21,978

2071 -174 3,810 15,241 19,051 34,882 -23,340

2072 -178 3,880 15,518 19,398 35,404 -24,756

2073 -183 3,949 15,797 19,746 35,931 -26,230

2074 -187 4,019 16,077 20,096 36,464 -27,762

2075 -191 4,089 16,358 20,447 37,006 -29,356

2076 -195 4,160 16,640 20,800 37,555 -31,014

2077 -200 4,231 16,923 21,154 38,112 -32,736

2078 -204 4,302 17,208 21,510 38,677 -34,527

2079 -208 4,373 17,493 21,866 39,245 -36,387

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report

1/ Dividends are assumed to be automatically reinvested, not counted as purchase Office of the Actuary

2/ Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption Social Security Administration

 that the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury April 13, 2005
Table 1 b Unified Budget Effects

 Change

Net Purchase Balancing Other Change in Debt Change

 or Sale Tax Rate & Changes in Annual Held by in Ann

(negative) Estate Tax in OASDI UnifBudg Public UnifBudg

 Year of Equities 1/ (2010 only) CashFlow CashFlow (EOY) Balance

(Billions of $, Present Value on 1-1-04 See Note Below)

2005 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2006 18.1 0.0 1.7 -16.4 16.8 -16.8

2007 19.3 0.0 4.5 -14.8 32.0 -16.1

2008 20.5 0.0 7.1 -13.4 45.8 -15.4

2009 21.4 0.0 9.8 -11.6 57.8 -14.3

2010 23.3 18.0 13.4 8.0 49.5 5.2

2011 24.6 0.0 17.0 -7.6 57.4 -10.5

2012 25.4 0.0 20.4 -4.9 62.4 -8.1

2013 25.9 0.0 23.6 -2.2 64.7 -5.6

2014 26.1 0.0 26.4 0.3 64.5 -3.2

2015 26.1 0.0 28.9 2.8 61.6 -0.6

2016 25.7 0.0 31.3 5.6 55.8 2.4

2017 25.0 0.0 33.4 8.4 47.2 5.6

2018 24.1 0.0 35.2 11.2 35.7 8.9

2019 22.7 0.0 37.0 14.3 21.0 12.7

2020 21.0 0.0 38.5 17.5 3.0 16.9

2021 19.1 0.0 39.9 20.8 -18.4 21.2

2022 17.0 0.0 41.2 24.2 -43.3 25.9

2023 21.9 38.5 42.3 58.9 -103.9 63.0

2024 20.1 38.0 43.3 61.3 -166.9 68.8

2025 18.1 37.5 44.1 63.5 -232.3 74.6

2026 -15.8 37.0 44.8 97.6 -332.8 113.4

2027 -17.5 36.5 45.5 99.5 -435.1 120.8

2028 -18.9 36.0 46.1 100.9 -539.0 128.1

2029 -20.0 35.5 46.5 102.1 -644.0 135.0

2030 -21.1 35.0 46.8 102.9 -749.9 141.7

2031 -22.0 34.6 47.0 103.5 -856.5 148.2

2032 -22.7 34.1 47.2 104.0 -963.5 154.6

2033 -23.2 33.7 47.4 104.3 -1,070.8 160.8

2034 -23.5 33.2 47.5 104.2 -1,178.0 166.7

2035 -23.7 32.8 47.4 103.9 -1,284.9 172.3

2036 -23.8 32.3 47.2 103.3 -1,391.2 177.7

2037 -23.8 31.9 47.1 102.7 -1,496.9 183.0

2038 -23.6 31.5 46.9 102.0 -1,601.9 188.1

2039 -23.4 31.1 46.6 101.2 -1,705.9 193.1

2040 -23.3 30.6 46.0 99.9 -1,808.8 197.6

2041 -23.2 30.2 45.3 98.7 -1,910.3 202.0

2042 -23.0 29.8 44.6 97.4 -2,010.6 206.4

2043 -22.9 29.4 44.0 96.3 -2,109.6 210.8

2044 -22.8 28.9 42.9 94.7 -2,207.0 214.6

2045 -22.9 28.5 41.5 92.8 -2,302.6 218.2

2046 -22.9 28.0 40.1 91.0 -2,396.2 221.6

2047 -22.9 27.6 38.8 89.3 -2,488.1 225.0

2048 -22.9 27.1 37.5 87.6 -2,578.2 228.4

2049 -23.0 26.7 36.2 85.9 -2,666.6 231.7

2050 -23.1 26.3 34.9 84.2 -2,753.3 234.8

2051 -23.2 25.8 33.5 82.5 -2,838.2 237.9

2052 -23.3 25.4 32.2 81.0 -2,921.5 241.0

2053 -23.5 25.0 31.1 79.5 -3,003.3 244.2

2054 -23.6 24.6 29.9 78.0 -3,083.6 247.2

2055 -23.7 24.2 28.7 76.6 -3,162.4 250.2

2056 -23.8 23.8 27.5 75.2 -3,239.8 253.1

2057 -24.0 23.4 26.5 73.8 -3,315.7 256.0

2058 -24.0 23.0 25.5 72.5 -3,390.3 258.8

2059 -24.1 22.6 24.5 71.2 -3,463.6 261.6

2060 -24.1 22.2 23.5 69.9 -3,535.5 264.4

2061 -24.2 21.9 22.6 68.6 -3,606.1 267.1

2062 -24.2 21.5 21.7 67.4 -3,675.5 269.8

2063 -24.2 21.2 20.9 66.3 -3,743.7 272.5

2064 -24.2 20.8 20.1 65.1 -3,810.7 275.1

2065 -24.2 20.5 19.4 64.0 -3,876.6 277.7

2066 -24.1 20.1 18.7 62.9 -3,941.4 280.2

2067 -24.1 19.8 18.0 61.9 -4,005.1 282.7

2068 -24.0 19.5 17.4 60.8 -4,067.7 285.2

2069 -23.9 19.2 16.8 59.8 -4,129.2 287.6

2070 -23.8 18.8 16.2 58.8 -4,189.7 290.0

2071 -23.6 18.5 15.7 57.8 -4,249.3 292.3

2072 -23.5 18.2 15.2 56.9 -4,307.8 294.7

2073 -23.3 17.9 14.7 55.9 -4,365.3 296.9

2074 -23.2 17.6 14.2 55.0 -4,421.9 299.2

2075 -23.0 17.3 13.8 54.1 -4,477.6 301.4

2076 -22.8 17.0 13.4 53.2 -4,532.4 303.6

2077 -22.7 16.8 13.0 52.4 -4,586.3 305.8

2078 -22.5 16.5 12.6 51.5 -4,639.3 307.9

2079 -22.3 16.2 12.2 50.7 -4,691.5 310.0

Note: PV discount at Treasury Bond yield

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report

 With Ult Real TF Yield Rate of 3.7 Office of the Actuary

 Ult Real Treas Bond Yield Rate of 3.0 Social Security Administration

1/Reinvestment of dividends is not included in net purchase April 13, 2005
Table 1 b.c Unified Budget Effects

Net Purchase Balancing Other Change Change Change

 or Sale Tax Rate & Changes in Annual in Debt in Ann

(negative) Estate Tax in OASDI UnifBudg Held by UnifBudg

 Year of Equities 1/ (2010 only) CashFlow CashFlow Public Balance

(EOY)

 (Billions of Constant 2004$)

2005 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2006 20.0 0.0 1.9 -18.1 18.4 -18.6

2007 22.0 0.0 5.1 -16.9 36.0 -18.3

2008 23.9 0.0 8.3 -15.7 52.8 -18.0

2009 25.7 0.0 11.8 -13.9 68.3 -17.2

2010 28.7 22.1 16.5 9.9 60.1 6.4

2011 31.0 0.0 21.4 -9.6 71.5 -13.2

2012 32.9 0.0 26.5 -6.4 80.0 -10.6

2013 34.5 0.0 31.5 -3.0 85.2 -7.5

2014 35.9 0.0 36.2 0.4 87.3 -4.4

2015 36.8 0.0 40.8 4.0 85.7 -0.8

2016 37.3 0.0 45.4 8.1 80.0 3.4

2017 37.4 0.0 50.0 12.6 69.6 8.3

2018 37.1 0.0 54.3 17.2 54.3 13.6

2019 36.0 0.0 58.6 22.7 32.9 20.2

2020 34.3 0.0 63.0 28.7 4.8 27.6

2021 32.1 0.0 67.1 35.0 -30.6 35.7

2022 29.5 0.0 71.4 41.9 -74.0 44.9

2023 39.1 68.8 75.5 105.1 -182.9 112.5

2024 36.9 69.9 79.6 112.6 -302.7 126.5

2025 34.2 71.0 83.4 120.3 -433.9 141.3

2026 -30.9 72.2 87.3 190.4 -640.2 221.1

2027 -35.1 73.4 91.4 199.8 -862.2 242.8

2028 -39.0 74.5 95.3 208.9 -1,100.1 265.0

2029 -42.7 75.7 99.2 217.6 -1,353.9 287.8

2030 -46.3 76.9 102.7 225.9 -1,623.8 311.0

2031 -49.6 78.2 106.3 234.1 -1,910.1 335.1

2032 -52.8 79.4 110.0 242.2 -2,213.2 360.1

2033 -55.5 80.7 113.8 250.1 -2,533.5 385.8

2034 -58.1 82.0 117.4 257.5 -2,870.8 412.0

2035 -60.4 83.4 120.6 264.3 -3,225.2 438.6

2036 -62.4 84.7 123.7 270.8 -3,596.8 465.9

2037 -64.2 86.1 127.1 277.4 -3,986.2 494.2

2038 -65.7 87.6 130.4 283.7 -4,393.7 523.2

2039 -67.1 89.0 133.6 289.7 -4,819.6 553.1

2040 -68.7 90.4 135.7 294.8 -5,263.4 583.1

2041 -70.4 91.8 137.6 299.8 -5,725.6 614.0

2042 -72.1 93.2 139.7 305.0 -6,206.9 646.1

2043 -73.8 94.7 141.9 310.4 -6,708.1 679.6

2044 -75.8 96.1 142.5 314.4 -7,228.4 712.8

2045 -78.2 97.4 141.9 317.5 -7,767.5 746.2

2046 -80.7 98.7 141.2 320.6 -8,325.9 780.7

2047 -83.2 100.1 140.6 323.9 -8,904.4 816.5

2048 -85.8 101.4 140.2 327.4 -9,503.7 853.6

2049 -88.5 102.7 139.5 330.8 -10,124.5 891.9

2050 -91.5 104.1 138.3 333.9 -10,767.2 931.2

2051 -94.8 105.5 136.8 337.1 -11,432.3 971.7

2052 -98.2 106.8 135.6 340.7 -12,121.0 1,014.0

2053 -101.6 108.3 134.5 344.5 -12,834.2 1,057.9

2054 -105.2 109.7 133.4 348.3 -13,572.7 1,103.2

2055 -109.0 111.1 131.9 352.0 -14,337.2 1,149.9

2056 -112.9 112.6 130.4 355.9 -15,128.4 1,198.2

2057 -116.8 114.0 129.0 359.9 -15,947.5 1,248.3

2058 -120.7 115.5 127.8 364.1 -16,795.5 1,300.1

2059 -124.6 117.0 126.7 368.3 -17,673.1 1,353.6

2060 -128.5 118.5 125.4 372.4 -18,581.3 1,408.9

2061 -132.6 120.1 124.1 376.7 -19,521.0 1,465.9

2062 -136.7 121.6 122.9 381.3 -20,493.6 1,525.2

2063 -141.0 123.2 121.8 386.0 -21,500.1 1,586.5

2064 -145.3 124.8 120.7 390.7 -22,541.7 1,649.8

2065 -149.4 126.4 119.8 395.6 -23,619.4 1,715.2

2066 -153.6 128.1 118.9 400.5 -24,734.5 1,782.8

2067 -157.8 129.7 118.1 405.6 -25,888.2 1,852.8

2068 -161.9 131.5 117.3 410.7 -27,081.6 1,925.0

2069 -166.1 133.2 116.5 415.8 -28,316.0 1,999.5

2070 -170.1 134.9 116.1 421.1 -29,592.9 2,076.6

2071 -174.2 136.7 115.7 426.6 -30,913.7 2,156.3

2072 -178.3 138.5 115.3 432.1 -32,279.6 2,238.6

2073 -182.5 140.3 114.8 437.6 -33,692.1 2,323.6

2074 -186.8 142.1 114.4 443.2 -35,152.6 2,411.3

2075 -191.0 143.9 114.3 449.2 -36,663.1 2,502.3

2076 -195.2 145.8 114.2 455.2 -38,225.0 2,596.1

2077 -199.6 147.7 114.1 461.4 -39,840.0 2,693.1

2078 -203.9 149.6 114.1 467.6 -41,509.8 2,793.2

2079 -208.4 151.5 114.0 473.9 -43,236.0 2,896.6

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report

 With Ult Real TF Yield Rate of 3.7 Office of the Chief Actuary

 Ult Real Treas Bond Yield Rate of 3.0 Social Security Administration

1/Reinvestment of dividends is not included in net purchase April 13, 2005
Table 1 c OASDI Cash Flow to General Fund of the Treasury--- Proposal vs. Theoretical OASD

 Proposal Theoretical Social Security with PAYGO Transfers

Net Amount of Cash-Flow from the OASDI Net Amount of Cash-Flow from the OASDI 

Trust Funds to the General Fund of the Trust Funds to the General Fund of the

 Treasury During the Year 1/ Treasury During the Year 1/

% of Billions of Dollars --- % of Billions of Dollars ---

Pyrl Current $ PV 1-1-04 2/ Const 2004$ Pyrl Current $ PV 1-1-04 2/ Const 2004$

2004 1.4 65 63 65 1.4 65 63 65

2005 1.9 89 82 87 1.9 89 82 87

2006 2.0 99 87 96 1.9 97 85 94

2007 2.1 110 91 104 2.0 105 87 99

2008 2.1 118 93 108 2.0 109 86 100

2009 2.0 118 88 105 1.8 105 78 93

2010 2.4 147 104 128 1.7 103 73 89

2011 2.4 153 102 129 1.6 101 67 85

2012 2.2 152 96 125 1.4 91 58 75

2013 2.1 148 89 118 1.1 79 47 63

2014 1.9 143 81 111 0.9 65 37 50

2015 1.7 135 72 102 0.6 48 25 36

2016 1.5 124 63 91 0.3 27 14 20

2017 1.3 111 53 80 0.0 4 2 3

2018 1.1 95 43 66 -0.3 -22 -10 -15

2019 0.8 77 33 52 -0.6 -51 -22 -35

2020 0.6 55 22 37 -0.9 -84 -34 -55

2021 0.3 32 12 21 -1.2 -119 -45 -76

2022 0.1 8 3 5 -1.5 -155 -56 -97

2023 0.8 94 32 57 -1.8 -195 -66 -118

2024 0.6 72 23 42 -2.1 -236 -76 -139

2025 0.4 47 14 27 -2.4 -279 -85 -160

2026 0.2 22 6 12 -2.7 -324 -93 -181

2027 0.0 -3 -1 -2 -3.0 -370 -100 -201

2028 -0.2 -28 -7 -15 -3.2 -416 -106 -220

2029 -0.4 -52 -13 -27 -3.4 -463 -112 -238

2030 -0.5 -76 -17 -38 -3.6 -510 -116 -255

2031 -0.6 -100 -21 -48 -3.8 -558 -120 -271

2032 -0.7 -122 -25 -58 -4.0 -606 -123 -287

2033 -0.8 -143 -27 -66 -4.1 -653 -125 -300

2034 -0.9 -161 -29 -72 -4.2 -699 -127 -313

2035 -0.9 -178 -30 -78 -4.3 -744 -127 -324

2036 -1.0 -193 -31 -82 -4.4 -788 -127 -334

2037 -1.0 -205 -31 -84 -4.4 -831 -127 -343

2038 -1.0 -214 -31 -86 -4.5 -873 -126 -350

2039 -1.0 -222 -30 -87 -4.5 -915 -124 -357

2040 -1.0 -232 -30 -88 -4.5 -956 -123 -363

2041 -1.0 -242 -29 -89 -4.5 -1,000 -121 -369

2042 -1.0 -252 -29 -91 -4.5 -1,045 -120 -375

2043 -1.0 -263 -28 -92 -4.5 -1,091 -118 -381

2044 -1.0 -279 -28 -95 -4.5 -1,139 -116 -387

2045 -1.0 -299 -29 -99 -4.5 -1,189 -115 -393

2046 -1.0 -321 -29 -103 -4.6 -1,241 -113 -399

2047 -1.1 -344 -30 -107 -4.6 -1,297 -112 -405

2048 -1.1 -368 -30 -112 -4.6 -1,355 -110 -412

2049 -1.1 -396 -30 -117 -4.6 -1,417 -109 -419

2050 -1.2 -429 -31 -124 -4.6 -1,483 -108 -427

2051 -1.2 -468 -32 -131 -4.6 -1,555 -107 -435

2052 -1.3 -510 -33 -139 -4.7 -1,634 -106 -445

2053 -1.4 -556 -34 -147 -4.7 -1,717 -105 -455

2054 -1.4 -605 -35 -156 -4.8 -1,805 -104 -465

2055 -1.5 -660 -36 -166 -4.8 -1,899 -104 -476

2056 -1.6 -720 -37 -176 -4.9 -1,999 -103 -487

2057 -1.6 -783 -38 -186 -4.9 -2,104 -102 -499

2058 -1.7 -848 -39 -196 -5.0 -2,214 -102 -511

2059 -1.8 -916 -40 -206 -5.0 -2,328 -101 -522

2060 -1.8 -988 -40 -216 -5.1 -2,447 -100 -534

2061 -1.9 -1,065 -41 -226 -5.1 -2,574 -100 -547

2062 -2.0 -1,149 -42 -237 -5.2 -2,709 -99 -560

2063 -2.0 -1,240 -43 -249 -5.2 -2,854 -98 -574

2064 -2.1 -1,333 -43 -261 -5.3 -3,003 -98 -587

2065 -2.1 -1,427 -44 -271 -5.3 -3,157 -97 -600

2066 -2.2 -1,528 -44 -283 -5.4 -3,319 -96 -614

2067 -2.3 -1,633 -45 -294 -5.4 -3,489 -96 -628

2068 -2.3 -1,741 -45 -305 -5.5 -3,665 -95 -641

2069 -2.4 -1,853 -45 -316 -5.5 -3,847 -94 -655

2070 -2.4 -1,968 -46 -326 -5.6 -4,037 -93 -669

2071 -2.5 -2,088 -46 -336 -5.6 -4,235 -92 -682

2072 -2.5 -2,214 -46 -347 -5.7 -4,442 -92 -696

2073 -2.6 -2,347 -46 -358 -5.7 -4,660 -91 -710

2074 -2.6 -2,488 -46 -369 -5.7 -4,888 -90 -725

2075 -2.6 -2,633 -46 -380 -5.8 -5,127 -89 -740

2076 -2.7 -2,786 -46 -391 -5.8 -5,377 -88 -755

2077 -2.7 -2,947 -46 -402 -5.9 -5,640 -87 -770

2078 -2.8 -3,117 -46 -414 -5.9 -5,915 -87 -785

2079 -2.8 -3,296 -46 -426 -6.0 -6,203 -86 -801

Total 2004-78 -434 -5,225

1/ Equals net investment in special Treasury Bonds by the 

 Trust Funds less the Amount of General Fund transfers Office of the Actuary

 specified in the theoretical plan (PAYGO Transfers). Social Security Administration

2/ PV discount at TreasBond yield April 13, 2005
Table 1 d Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Assets / Unfunded Obligation

Present Law OASDI Other

Trust Fund Assets Revenue Revenue Basic Total Change Proposal OASDI Trust Fund

or If Negative, from from Changes Through Assets / Unfunded Obligation

Unfunded Obligation Estate Balancing in OASDI End of Year Through End of Year

 Year Through EOY Tax Tax rate CashFlow without equity W/O equity With Equity

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)=(2)+(3)+(4) (6) (7)

(Billions of $, Present Value on 1-1-04 See Note Below)

2005 1,674.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,674.6 1,674.6

2006 1,759.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 1.7 1,760.7 1,760.7

2007 1,845.5 0.0 0.0 4.5 6.2 1,851.7 1,851.7

2008 1,930.8 0.0 0.0 7.1 13.3 1,944.0 1,943.9

2009 2,008.4 0.0 0.0 9.8 23.1 2,031.5 2,031.2

2010 2,080.8 18.0 0.0 13.4 54.5 2,135.3 2,134.6

2011 2,148.0 18.0 0.0 17.0 89.4 2,237.4 2,236.2

2012 2,205.6 18.0 0.0 20.4 127.9 2,333.5 2,331.6

2013 2,252.4 18.0 0.0 23.6 169.5 2,422.0 2,419.2

2014 2,289.0 18.0 0.0 26.4 213.9 2,502.9 2,499.2

2015 2,314.3 18.0 0.0 28.9 260.8 2,575.1 2,570.3

2016 2,327.9 17.9 0.0 31.3 310.0 2,637.9 2,631.9

2017 2,329.7 17.9 0.0 33.4 361.3 2,691.0 2,683.8

2018 2,319.7 17.8 0.0 35.2 414.3 2,734.0 2,725.7

2019 2,297.6 17.7 0.0 37.0 469.0 2,766.7 2,757.4

2020 2,263.7 17.6 0.0 38.5 525.2 2,788.9 2,778.9

2021 2,218.5 17.5 0.0 39.9 582.6 2,801.1 2,790.5

2022 2,162.6 17.4 0.0 41.2 641.2 2,803.8 2,793.1

2023 2,096.4 17.3 38.5 42.3 739.4 2,835.8 2,823.5

2024 2,020.7 17.2 38.0 43.3 838.0 2,858.7 2,845.2

2025 1,936.1 17.2 37.5 44.1 936.8 2,872.9 2,858.4

2026 1,843.3 17.1 37.0 44.8 1,035.7 2,879.0 2,864.1

2027 1,743.3 17.1 36.5 45.5 1,134.8 2,878.1 2,863.2

2028 1,637.0 17.0 36.0 46.1 1,233.9 2,870.9 2,856.6

2029 1,525.4 17.0 35.5 46.5 1,332.9 2,858.3 2,845.2

2030 1,409.4 16.9 35.0 46.8 1,431.7 2,841.1 2,829.5

2031 1,289.5 16.9 34.6 47.0 1,530.1 2,819.6 2,810.2

2032 1,166.5 16.8 34.1 47.2 1,628.3 2,794.8 2,788.0

2033 1,041.2 16.8 33.7 47.4 1,726.2 2,767.4 2,763.7

2034 914.6 16.7 33.2 47.5 1,823.6 2,738.2 2,738.0

2035 787.2 16.7 32.8 47.4 1,920.5 2,707.7 2,711.2

2036 659.9 16.7 32.3 47.2 2,016.6 2,676.5 2,684.1

2037 533.0 16.6 31.9 47.1 2,112.2 2,645.2 2,657.0

2038 407.2 16.6 31.5 46.9 2,207.2 2,614.3 2,630.5

2039 282.7 16.5 31.1 46.6 2,301.4 2,584.1 2,604.7

2040 159.8 16.5 30.6 46.0 2,394.6 2,554.3 2,579.5

2041 38.4 16.5 30.2 45.3 2,486.5 2,524.9 2,554.7

2042 -81.4 16.4 29.8 44.6 2,577.3 2,496.0 2,530.5

2043 -199.5 16.3 29.4 44.0 2,667.0 2,467.5 2,506.9

2044 -316.0 16.1 28.9 42.9 2,755.0 2,439.0 2,483.4

2045 -430.8 16.0 28.5 41.5 2,841.0 2,410.1 2,459.8

2046 -544.1 15.9 28.0 40.1 2,925.0 2,380.9 2,436.0

2047 -655.8 15.7 27.6 38.8 3,007.0 2,351.3 2,412.1

2048 -766.0 15.6 27.1 37.5 3,087.3 2,321.3 2,388.0

2049 -874.8 15.5 26.7 36.2 3,165.7 2,290.9 2,363.8

2050 -982.4 15.3 26.3 34.9 3,242.2 2,259.7 2,339.1

2051 -1,089.0 15.2 25.8 33.5 3,316.7 2,227.7 2,313.9

2052 -1,194.8 15.1 25.4 32.2 3,389.4 2,194.6 2,288.1

2053 -1,299.7 14.9 25.0 31.1 3,460.4 2,160.7 2,261.7

2054 -1,403.9 14.8 24.6 29.9 3,529.6 2,125.7 2,234.8

2055 -1,507.4 14.7 24.2 28.7 3,597.1 2,089.7 2,207.3

2056 -1,610.3 14.5 23.8 27.5 3,663.0 2,052.6 2,179.1

2057 -1,712.7 14.4 23.4 26.5 3,727.2 2,014.5 2,150.3

2058 -1,814.4 14.3 23.0 25.5 3,789.9 1,975.6 2,121.1

2059 -1,915.3 14.1 22.6 24.5 3,851.2 1,935.9 2,091.5

2060 -2,015.6 14.0 22.2 23.5 3,911.0 1,895.4 2,061.6

2061 -2,115.1 13.9 21.9 22.6 3,969.3 1,854.2 2,031.3

2062 -2,214.1 13.8 21.5 21.7 4,026.3 1,812.2 2,000.7

2063 -2,312.6 13.6 21.2 20.9 4,082.0 1,769.4 1,969.6

2064 -2,410.5 13.5 20.8 20.1 4,136.5 1,726.0 1,938.4

2065 -2,507.7 13.4 20.5 19.4 4,189.7 1,682.1 1,907.0

2066 -2,604.1 13.3 20.1 18.7 4,241.8 1,637.7 1,875.4

2067 -2,699.9 13.1 19.8 18.0 4,292.8 1,592.8 1,843.8

2068 -2,794.9 13.0 19.5 17.4 4,342.6 1,547.7 1,812.2

2069 -2,889.1 12.9 19.2 16.8 4,391.5 1,502.3 1,780.6

2070 -2,982.5 12.8 18.8 16.2 4,439.3 1,456.8 1,749.1

2071 -3,075.0 12.7 18.5 15.7 4,486.2 1,411.2 1,717.8

2072 -3,166.6 12.6 18.2 15.2 4,532.2 1,365.6 1,686.7

2073 -3,257.4 12.5 17.9 14.7 4,577.2 1,319.8 1,655.7

2074 -3,347.3 12.3 17.6 14.2 4,621.4 1,274.1 1,624.9

2075 -3,436.4 12.2 17.3 13.8 4,664.7 1,228.3 1,594.3

2076 -3,524.7 12.1 17.0 13.4 4,707.2 1,182.6 1,563.9

2077 -3,612.1 12.0 16.8 13.0 4,749.0 1,136.9 1,533.8

2078 -3,698.7 11.9 16.5 12.6 4,789.9 1,091.3 1,504.0

Total 2004-2078 1,072.6 1,485.5 2,231.8

Note: PV discount at TreasBond yield, except col (7) where PV discount at TF yield with equity returns

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report

 With Ult Real TF Yield Rate of 3.7 Office of the Actuary

 Ult Real Treas Bond Yield Rate of3.0 Social Security Administration

 April 13, 2005
Table 1 e Projected OASDI Taxable Payroll

OASDI Effective Taxable Payroll Percent Change in

Calendar Present Law Proposal Taxable Payroll 

Year Under the Proposal

 (billions of nominal dollars)

2004 4,501 4,501 0.0 %

2005 4,730 4,730 0.0

2006 4,985 5,002 0.3

2007 5,244 5,280 0.7

2008 5,511 5,566 1.0

2009 5,784 5,862 1.4

2010 6,065 6,180 1.9

2011 6,354 6,509 2.4

2012 6,646 6,845 3.0

2013 6,946 7,191 3.5

2014 7,258 7,548 4.0

2015 7,583 7,920 4.4

2016 7,919 8,305 4.9

2017 8,268 8,706 5.3

2018 8,630 9,120 5.7

2019 9,005 9,550 6.1

2020 9,391 9,994 6.4

2021 9,794 10,456 6.8

2022 10,209 10,935 7.1

2023 10,640 11,432 7.4

2024 11,085 11,946 7.8

2025 11,545 12,475 8.1

2026 12,024 13,028 8.3

2027 12,527 13,612 8.7

2028 13,054 14,224 9.0

2029 13,599 14,856 9.2

2030 14,166 15,512 9.5

2031 14,758 16,199 9.8

2032 15,381 16,927 10.1

2033 16,033 17,690 10.3

2034 16,714 18,483 10.6

2035 17,418 19,304 10.8

2036 18,153 20,163 11.1

2037 18,923 21,069 11.3

2038 19,728 22,016 11.6

2039 20,569 23,004 11.8

2040 21,442 24,019 12.0

2041 22,353 25,078 12.2

2042 23,302 26,188 12.4

2043 24,292 27,349 12.6

2044 25,321 28,515 12.6

2045 26,386 29,711 12.6

2046 27,491 30,955 12.6

2047 28,642 32,251 12.6

2048 29,842 33,607 12.6

2049 31,085 35,003 12.6

2050 32,374 36,454 12.6

2051 33,719 37,965 12.6

2052 35,120 39,545 12.6

2053 36,579 41,193 12.6

2054 38,101 42,906 12.6

2055 39,682 44,683 12.6

2056 41,324 46,531 12.6

2057 43,036 48,460 12.6

2058 44,817 50,471 12.6

2059 46,670 52,558 12.6

2060 48,600 54,729 12.6

2061 50,605 56,984 12.6

2062 52,699 59,345 12.6

2063 54,883 61,809 12.6

2064 57,155 64,367 12.6

2065 59,520 67,030 12.6

2066 61,964 69,783 12.6

2067 64,511 72,655 12.6

2068 67,183 75,665 12.6

2069 69,970 78,802 12.6

2070 72,868 82,068 12.6

2071 75,881 85,464 12.6

2072 79,015 88,995 12.6

2073 82,282 92,675 12.6

2074 85,685 96,508 12.6

2075 89,221 100,496 12.6

2076 92,900 104,638 12.6

2077 96,727 108,951 12.6

2078 100,711 113,439 12.6

2079 104,859 118,125 12.7

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report Office of the Actuary

Social Security Administration

 April 13, 2005
Table 2 Robert M. Ball Proposal--Six Provisions--with Low Equity Yield

Estate Tax With Ult Real TF Int Rate of 3.00 Balancing Tax rate in 2023

$3.5Mill Exemption Change "Effective" Revenue

No Index, Trust Fund in OASDI OASDI from

45%Rate Cost Income Annual Ratio Balancing Contrib Contrib Estate

Year Rate Rate Balance 1-1-yr Tax Rate Rate Rate Tax

2004 11.07 12.71 1.64 306 12.40 0

2005 10.87 12.73 1.86 325 12.40 0

2006 10.73 12.73 2.00 347 12.40 0

2007 10.65 12.75 2.10 368 12.40 0

2008 10.65 12.78 2.14 388 12.40 0

2009 10.74 12.77 2.03 404 12.40 0

2010 10.79 13.20 2.41 421 0.4128 12.81 0.41

2011 10.87 13.25 2.38 441 0.0025 12.82 0.42

2012 11.04 13.28 2.24 457 0.0027 12.82 0.42

2013 11.22 13.31 2.09 473 0.0030 12.82 0.42

2014 11.40 13.32 1.92 486 0.0024 12.82 0.42

2015 11.61 13.34 1.73 497 0.0025 12.83 0.43

2016 11.84 13.36 1.52 506 0.0026 12.83 0.43

2017 12.08 13.38 1.30 513 0.0028 12.83 0.43

2018 12.33 13.39 1.07 518 0.0029 12.83 0.43

2019 12.59 13.41 0.82 521 0.0030 12.84 0.44

2020 12.86 13.43 0.57 522 0.0030 12.84 0.44

2021 13.13 13.45 0.32 522 0.0032 12.84 0.44

2022 13.39 13.47 0.08 520 0.0032 12.85 0.45

2023 13.65 14.49 0.84 518 1.00 1.0033 13.85 0.45

2024 13.89 14.51 0.62 522 1.00 0.0034 13.85 0.45

2025 14.14 14.53 0.39 524 1.00 0.0048 13.86 0.46

2026 14.37 14.55 0.18 525 1.00 0.0048 13.86 0.46

2027 14.58 14.56 -0.01 526 1.00 0.0048 13.87 0.47

2028 14.77 14.58 -0.19 526 1.00 0.0049 13.87 0.47

2029 14.94 14.60 -0.34 526 1.00 0.0051 13.88 0.48

2030 15.10 14.61 -0.48 525 1.00 0.0052 13.88 0.48

2031 15.24 14.63 -0.61 524 1.00 0.0052 13.89 0.49

2032 15.36 14.64 -0.72 523 1.00 0.0052 13.89 0.49

2033 15.46 14.66 -0.80 522 1.00 0.0053 13.90 0.50

2034 15.54 14.67 -0.87 521 1.00 0.0055 13.90 0.50

2035 15.60 14.68 -0.92 521 1.00 0.0056 13.91 0.51

2036 15.64 14.69 -0.95 520 1.00 0.0056 13.92 0.52

2037 15.67 14.70 -0.97 520 1.00 0.0056 13.92 0.52

2038 15.68 14.71 -0.97 521 1.00 0.0057 13.93 0.53

2039 15.68 14.72 -0.96 522 1.00 0.0058 13.93 0.53

2040 15.69 14.73 -0.96 523 1.00 0.0062 13.94 0.54

2041 15.70 14.73 -0.96 524 1.00 0.0063 13.94 0.54

2042 15.70 14.74 -0.96 525 1.00 0.0063 13.95 0.55

2043 15.71 14.75 -0.96 526 1.00 0.0032 13.95 0.55

2044 15.73 14.75 -0.97 527 1.00 0.0040 13.96 0.56

2045 15.76 14.76 -1.00 528 1.00 0.0043 13.96 0.56

2046 15.80 14.77 -1.03 529 1.00 0.0043 13.97 0.57

2047 15.84 14.78 -1.06 530 1.00 0.0043 13.97 0.57

2048 15.88 14.79 -1.09 530 1.00 0.0043 13.98 0.58

2049 15.92 14.79 -1.13 531 1.00 0.0044 13.98 0.58

2050 15.98 14.80 -1.18 531 1.00 0.0044 13.98 0.58

2051 16.04 14.81 -1.23 530 1.00 0.0045 13.99 0.59

2052 16.11 14.82 -1.29 529 1.00 0.0044 13.99 0.59

2053 16.18 14.83 -1.35 527 1.00 0.0044 14.00 0.60

2054 16.25 14.84 -1.41 526 1.00 0.0045 14.00 0.60

2055 16.33 14.85 -1.48 523 1.00 0.0046 14.01 0.61

2056 16.41 14.86 -1.55 520 1.00 0.0046 14.01 0.61

2057 16.49 14.87 -1.62 517 1.00 0.0046 14.02 0.62

2058 16.57 14.88 -1.68 514 1.00 0.0046 14.02 0.62

2059 16.64 14.89 -1.75 510 1.00 0.0047 14.03 0.63

2060 16.71 14.91 -1.81 506 1.00 0.0048 14.03 0.63

2061 16.79 14.92 -1.87 501 1.00 0.0048 14.03 0.63

2062 16.87 14.93 -1.94 496 1.00 0.0048 14.04 0.64

2063 16.95 14.94 -2.01 491 1.00 0.0048 14.04 0.64

2064 17.02 14.95 -2.08 485 1.00 0.0049 14.05 0.65

2065 17.09 14.96 -2.14 479 1.00 0.0049 14.05 0.65

2066 17.16 14.97 -2.20 473 1.00 0.0050 14.06 0.66

2067 17.23 14.98 -2.25 467 1.00 0.0050 14.06 0.66

2068 17.29 14.99 -2.31 460 1.00 0.0050 14.07 0.67

2069 17.36 15.00 -2.36 452 1.00 0.0051 14.07 0.67

2070 17.41 15.01 -2.41 445 1.00 0.0051 14.08 0.68

2071 17.47 15.01 -2.45 437 1.00 0.0052 14.08 0.68

2072 17.52 15.02 -2.50 429 1.00 0.0052 14.09 0.69

2073 17.57 15.03 -2.54 421 1.00 0.0053 14.09 0.69

2074 17.63 15.04 -2.59 413 1.00 0.0053 14.10 0.70

2075 17.68 15.05 -2.63 404 1.00 0.0053 14.11 0.71

2076 17.73 15.06 -2.67 395 1.00 0.0054 14.11 0.71

2077 17.78 15.07 -2.71 385 1.00 0.0054 14.12 0.72

2078 17.83 15.08 -2.76 376 1.00 0.0055 14.12 0.72

2079 17.89 15.09 -2.80 366 1.00 0.0054 14.13 0.73

 Summarized

CostRt IncRt ActBal Change in

2004 OASDI OASDI OASDI ActBal

-2078 14.51 14.86 0.35 2.23

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report Office of the Actuary

 With Ult Real TF Yield Rate of 3.0 Social Security Administration

 Ult Real Treas Bond Yield Rate3.0 April 13, 2005
Table 2 a Proposal GF Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Assets, Individual Account Assets, and Theoretical OASDI Assets

Trust Fund Trust Fund Total OASDI

Net Purchase or Assets Assets Trust Fund Theoretical Social Security 2/

Calendar Sale (negative) at End of Yr at End of Yr Assets with Borrowing Authority;

Year of Equities 1/ Equities Treas Bonds at End of Yr GDP Net OASDI TF Assets End of Yr 

 (1) (3) (4) (5) (7) (9)

Billions of Constant 2004 Dollars Billions of Constant 2004 Dollars

2004 0 0 1,684 1,684 11,544 1,684

2005 0 0 1,840 1,840 11,911 1,840

2006 20 20 1,980 2,000 12,246 1,998

2007 23 43 2,120 2,164 12,562 2,156

2008 25 70 2,261 2,331 12,870 2,315

2009 28 100 2,401 2,501 13,171 2,473

2010 32 135 2,564 2,699 13,466 2,631

2011 35 174 2,732 2,906 13,752 2,790

2012 38 218 2,897 3,115 14,024 2,944

2013 41 266 3,058 3,324 14,285 3,091

2014 44 318 3,214 3,532 14,547 3,230

2015 46 374 3,365 3,738 14,804 3,360

2016 48 434 3,508 3,941 15,061 3,478

2017 50 497 3,643 4,139 15,322 3,584

2018 52 563 3,769 4,332 15,586 3,675

2019 52 632 3,883 4,515 15,842 3,750

2020 52 703 3,985 4,688 16,100 3,805

2021 52 776 4,074 4,850 16,354 3,841

2022 51 850 4,150 5,000 16,610 3,857

2023 62 938 4,271 5,209 16,861 3,851

2024 62 1,028 4,381 5,408 17,117 3,823

2025 61 1,120 4,479 5,598 17,372 3,773

2026 2 1,156 4,623 5,778 17,634 3,700

2027 0 1,190 4,760 5,950 17,903 3,604

2028 -3 1,223 4,890 6,113 18,174 3,486

2029 -5 1,254 5,015 6,269 18,451 3,346

2030 -8 1,284 5,134 6,418 18,733 3,184

2031 -10 1,312 5,249 6,561 19,022 3,000

2032 -12 1,340 5,358 6,698 19,319 2,796

2033 -14 1,366 5,465 6,831 19,622 2,570

2034 -15 1,392 5,570 6,962 19,929 2,325

2035 -16 1,418 5,673 7,091 20,243 2,062

2036 -17 1,444 5,776 7,219 20,564 1,780

2037 -17 1,470 5,879 7,349 20,892 1,481

2038 -18 1,496 5,985 7,481 21,226 1,165

2039 -18 1,523 6,093 7,617 21,562 833

2040 -18 1,551 6,204 7,755 21,904 485

2041 -18 1,579 6,316 7,895 22,252 120

2042 -19 1,608 6,431 8,039 22,605 -262

2043 -19 1,637 6,548 8,186 22,961 -662

2044 -19 1,667 6,667 8,334 23,322 -1,080

2045 -20 1,696 6,786 8,482 23,687 -1,516

2046 -21 1,726 6,905 8,631 24,055 -1,972

2047 -22 1,756 7,023 8,779 24,426 -2,449

2048 -23 1,785 7,142 8,927 24,799 -2,946

2049 -24 1,815 7,259 9,074 25,174 -3,465

2050 -25 1,844 7,376 9,219 25,552 -4,008

2051 -27 1,872 7,489 9,361 25,936 -4,577

2052 -29 1,900 7,599 9,499 26,324 -5,172

2053 -30 1,927 7,706 9,633 26,721 -5,795

2054 -32 1,952 7,809 9,761 27,123 -6,447

2055 -34 1,977 7,907 9,884 27,528 -7,130

2056 -36 2,000 8,000 10,000 27,939 -7,845

2057 -38 2,022 8,087 10,108 28,354 -8,594

2058 -40 2,042 8,168 10,210 28,775 -9,378

2059 -42 2,061 8,244 10,305 29,204 -10,196

2060 -44 2,078 8,314 10,392 29,639 -11,052

2061 -47 2,094 8,377 10,471 30,078 -11,946

2062 -49 2,108 8,433 10,541 30,526 -12,880

2063 -51 2,120 8,481 10,601 30,978 -13,857

2064 -54 2,130 8,521 10,651 31,438 -14,876

2065 -56 2,138 8,553 10,691 31,906 -15,940

2066 -58 2,144 8,577 10,721 32,379 -17,050

2067 -60 2,148 8,593 10,741 32,861 -18,208

2068 -63 2,150 8,600 10,750 33,359 -19,414

2069 -65 2,149 8,598 10,747 33,859 -20,670

2070 -67 2,147 8,588 10,734 34,366 -21,978

2071 -69 2,142 8,568 10,710 34,882 -23,340

2072 -71 2,135 8,540 10,675 35,404 -24,756

2073 -74 2,125 8,501 10,627 35,931 -26,230

2074 -76 2,113 8,453 10,566 36,464 -27,762

2075 -78 2,098 8,394 10,492 37,006 -29,356

2076 -80 2,081 8,324 10,404 37,555 -31,014

2077 -83 2,061 8,242 10,303 38,112 -32,736

2078 -85 2,037 8,149 10,186 38,677 -34,527

2079 -88 2,011 8,043 10,053 39,245 -36,387

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report

1/ Dividends are assumed to be automatically reinvested, not counted as purchase Office of the Actuary

2/ Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption Social Security Administration

 that the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury April 13, 2005
Table 2 b Unified Budget Effects

 Change

Net Purchase Balancing Other Change in Debt Change

 or Sale Tax Rate & Changes in Annual Held by in Ann

(negative) of Estate Tax in OASDI UnifBudg Public UnifBudg

 Year of Equities 1/ (2010 only) CashFlow CashFlow (EOY) Balance

(Billions of $, Present Value on 1-1-04 See Note Below)

2005 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2006 18.1 0.0 1.7 -16.4 16.8 -16.8

2007 19.9 0.0 4.5 -15.4 32.6 -16.7

2008 21.7 0.0 7.1 -14.7 47.7 -16.7

2009 23.4 0.0 9.8 -13.5 61.6 -16.4

2010 26.0 18.0 13.4 5.4 56.1 2.3

2011 28.0 0.0 17.0 -11.0 67.4 -14.3

2012 29.6 0.0 20.4 -9.2 76.9 -13.0

2013 30.9 0.0 23.6 -7.3 84.4 -11.6

2014 32.1 0.0 26.4 -5.7 90.2 -10.4

2015 32.9 0.0 28.9 -4.0 94.3 -9.0

2016 33.4 0.0 31.3 -2.1 96.5 -7.3

2017 33.6 0.0 33.4 -0.1 96.7 -5.5

2018 33.4 0.0 35.2 1.8 94.8 -3.5

2019 32.8 0.0 37.0 4.1 90.6 -1.0

2020 31.9 0.0 38.5 6.6 83.8 1.8

2021 30.7 0.0 39.9 9.2 74.3 4.8

2022 29.3 0.0 41.2 11.9 62.1 8.1

2023 34.8 38.5 42.3 46.0 14.7 43.9

2024 33.7 38.0 43.3 47.7 -34.3 48.3

2025 32.3 37.5 44.1 49.3 -85.0 52.6

2026 1.3 37.0 44.8 80.5 -167.9 87.6

2027 -0.2 36.5 45.5 82.2 -252.5 93.9

2028 -1.5 36.0 46.1 83.6 -338.5 100.0

2029 -2.6 35.5 46.5 84.6 -425.6 105.9

2030 -3.6 35.0 46.8 85.4 -513.4 111.5

2031 -4.4 34.6 47.0 86.0 -601.9 117.0

2032 -5.1 34.1 47.2 86.5 -690.9 122.4

2033 -5.6 33.7 47.4 86.7 -780.1 127.6

2034 -6.0 33.2 47.5 86.7 -869.4 132.6

2035 -6.3 32.8 47.4 86.4 -958.3 137.2

2036 -6.4 32.3 47.2 85.9 -1,046.7 141.7

2037 -6.4 31.9 47.1 85.4 -1,134.6 146.0

2038 -6.4 31.5 46.9 84.7 -1,221.8 150.2

2039 -6.2 31.1 46.6 83.9 -1,308.1 154.3

2040 -6.1 30.6 46.0 82.8 -1,393.3 157.9

2041 -6.1 30.2 45.3 81.5 -1,477.2 161.3

2042 -6.0 29.8 44.6 80.4 -1,559.9 164.8

2043 -5.9 29.4 44.0 79.3 -1,641.5 168.2

2044 -5.9 28.9 42.9 77.7 -1,721.4 171.2

2045 -5.9 28.5 41.5 75.9 -1,799.5 173.8

2046 -6.0 28.0 40.1 74.1 -1,875.8 176.3

2047 -6.1 27.6 38.8 72.4 -1,950.3 178.8

2048 -6.2 27.1 37.5 70.8 -2,023.2 181.2

2049 -6.3 26.7 36.2 69.2 -2,094.4 183.6

2050 -6.4 26.3 34.9 67.5 -2,163.9 185.9

2051 -6.6 25.8 33.5 65.9 -2,231.7 188.1

2052 -6.8 25.4 32.2 64.4 -2,298.1 190.3

2053 -7.0 25.0 31.1 63.0 -2,362.9 192.6

2054 -7.2 24.6 29.9 61.7 -2,426.4 194.7

2055 -7.4 24.2 28.7 60.3 -2,488.4 196.9

2056 -7.6 23.8 27.5 58.9 -2,549.0 198.9

2057 -7.8 23.4 26.5 57.7 -2,608.4 201.0

2058 -8.0 23.0 25.5 56.5 -2,666.5 203.1

2059 -8.2 22.6 24.5 55.3 -2,723.4 205.1

2060 -8.3 22.2 23.5 54.1 -2,779.0 207.0

2061 -8.5 21.9 22.6 53.0 -2,833.5 208.9

2062 -8.6 21.5 21.7 51.9 -2,886.9 210.9

2063 -8.8 21.2 20.9 50.9 -2,939.3 212.8

2064 -8.9 20.8 20.1 49.9 -2,990.6 214.7

2065 -9.0 20.5 19.4 48.9 -3,040.9 216.5

2066 -9.1 20.1 18.7 47.9 -3,090.3 218.3

2067 -9.2 19.8 18.0 47.0 -3,138.7 220.1

2068 -9.3 19.5 17.4 46.1 -3,186.1 221.9

2069 -9.3 19.2 16.8 45.3 -3,232.7 223.6

2070 -9.4 18.8 16.2 44.4 -3,278.4 225.3

2071 -9.4 18.5 15.7 43.6 -3,323.3 227.0

2072 -9.4 18.2 15.2 42.8 -3,367.3 228.7

2073 -9.4 17.9 14.7 42.0 -3,410.5 230.3

2074 -9.4 17.6 14.2 41.2 -3,453.0 232.0

2075 -9.4 17.3 13.8 40.5 -3,494.7 233.6

2076 -9.4 17.0 13.4 39.8 -3,535.6 235.2

2077 -9.4 16.8 13.0 39.1 -3,575.9 236.7

2078 -9.4 16.5 12.6 38.4 -3,615.5 238.3

2079 -9.4 16.2 12.2 37.8 -3,654.3 239.8

Note: PV discount at Treasury Bond yield

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report

 With Ult Real TF Yield Rate of 3.0 Office of the Actuary

 Ult Real Treas Bond Yield Rate of 3.0 Social Security Administration

1/Reinvestment of dividends is not included in net purchase 13-Apr-05
Table 2 b.c Unified Budget Effects

Net Purchase Balancing Other Change Change Change

 or Sale Tax Rate & Changes in Annual in Debt in Ann

(negative) of Estate Tax in OASDI UnifBudg Held by UnifBudg

 Year of Equities 1/ (2010 only) CashFlow CashFlow Public Balance

(EOY)

 (Billions of Constant 2004$)

2005 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2006 20.0 0.0 1.9 -18.1 18.4 -18.6

2007 22.7 0.0 5.1 -17.6 36.6 -19.0

2008 25.4 0.0 8.3 -17.1 54.9 -19.6

2009 28.0 0.0 11.8 -16.2 72.8 -19.7

2010 31.9 22.1 16.5 6.6 68.1 2.8

2011 35.4 0.0 21.4 -13.9 84.0 -18.1

2012 38.4 0.0 26.5 -11.9 98.5 -16.9

2013 41.3 0.0 31.5 -9.8 111.1 -15.5

2014 44.0 0.0 36.2 -7.8 122.1 -14.3

2015 46.4 0.0 40.8 -5.6 131.3 -12.7

2016 48.5 0.0 45.4 -3.1 138.3 -10.6

2017 50.2 0.0 50.0 -0.2 142.6 -8.2

2018 51.5 0.0 54.3 2.8 144.0 -5.4

2019 52.1 0.0 58.6 6.6 141.7 -1.6

2020 52.1 0.0 63.0 10.8 135.0 2.9

2021 51.6 0.0 67.1 15.4 123.3 8.0

2022 50.8 0.0 71.4 20.6 106.2 14.0

2023 62.1 68.8 75.5 82.2 25.9 78.4

2024 61.9 69.9 79.6 87.7 -62.3 88.7

2025 61.2 71.0 83.4 93.3 -158.8 99.6

2026 2.5 72.2 87.3 157.1 -323.0 170.8

2027 -0.4 73.4 91.4 165.2 -500.3 188.7

2028 -3.1 74.5 95.3 172.9 -690.8 207.0

2029 -5.5 75.7 99.2 180.4 -894.6 225.7

2030 -7.8 76.9 102.7 187.5 -1,111.7 244.8

2031 -10.0 78.2 106.3 194.4 -1,342.4 264.6

2032 -11.9 79.4 110.0 201.4 -1,587.0 285.1

2033 -13.5 80.7 113.8 208.1 -1,845.8 306.2

2034 -14.8 82.0 117.4 214.3 -2,118.7 327.6

2035 -16.0 83.4 120.6 219.9 -2,405.4 349.2

2036 -16.8 84.7 123.7 225.3 -2,706.2 371.4

2037 -17.4 86.1 127.1 230.6 -3,021.4 394.3

2038 -17.7 87.6 130.4 235.6 -3,351.2 417.8

2039 -17.8 89.0 133.6 240.4 -3,695.7 441.9

2040 -18.1 90.4 135.7 244.2 -4,054.4 465.8

2041 -18.4 91.8 137.6 247.8 -4,427.6 490.3

2042 -18.6 93.2 139.7 251.6 -4,815.7 515.8

2043 -18.9 94.7 141.9 255.5 -5,219.5 542.4

2044 -19.5 96.1 142.5 258.0 -5,638.0 568.4

2045 -20.3 97.4 141.9 259.6 -6,070.6 594.3

2046 -21.2 98.7 141.2 261.1 -6,517.7 621.0

2047 -22.1 100.1 140.6 262.8 -6,980.0 648.7

2048 -23.0 101.4 140.2 264.6 -7,458.0 677.4

2049 -24.1 102.7 139.5 266.4 -7,952.0 706.9

2050 -25.4 104.1 138.3 267.8 -8,462.4 737.1

2051 -27.0 105.5 136.8 269.3 -8,989.5 768.2

2052 -28.6 106.8 135.6 271.1 -9,534.3 800.6

2053 -30.3 108.3 134.5 273.1 -10,097.5 834.3

2054 -32.1 109.7 133.4 275.1 -10,679.7 869.1

2055 -34.1 111.1 131.9 277.1 -11,281.3 904.9

2056 -36.1 112.6 130.4 279.1 -11,902.9 941.9

2057 -38.2 114.0 129.0 281.3 -12,545.5 980.2

2058 -40.3 115.5 127.8 283.6 -13,209.7 1,019.9

2059 -42.3 117.0 126.7 286.0 -13,896.2 1,060.9

2060 -44.4 118.5 125.4 288.3 -14,605.7 1,103.1

2061 -46.6 120.1 124.1 290.7 -15,338.9 1,146.7

2062 -48.8 121.6 122.9 293.4 -16,096.8 1,192.0

2063 -51.3 123.2 121.8 296.3 -16,880.4 1,239.0

2064 -53.6 124.8 120.7 299.1 -17,690.3 1,287.4

2065 -55.8 126.4 119.8 302.0 -18,527.5 1,337.4

2066 -58.1 128.1 118.9 305.1 -19,393.0 1,389.1

2067 -60.5 129.7 118.1 308.3 -20,287.7 1,442.7

2068 -62.7 131.5 117.3 311.5 -21,212.4 1,497.9

2069 -64.9 133.2 116.5 314.6 -22,168.1 1,554.8

2070 -67.1 134.9 116.1 318.1 -23,155.9 1,613.8

2071 -69.2 136.7 115.7 321.6 -24,177.0 1,674.7

2072 -71.4 138.5 115.3 325.1 -25,232.3 1,737.6

2073 -73.6 140.3 114.8 328.7 -26,322.9 1,802.6

2074 -75.9 142.1 114.4 332.4 -27,449.9 1,869.6

2075 -78.2 143.9 114.3 336.4 -28,614.8 1,939.2

2076 -80.5 145.8 114.2 340.5 -29,818.8 2,010.9

2077 -82.8 147.7 114.1 344.6 -31,063.1 2,085.1

2078 -85.2 149.6 114.1 348.8 -32,348.9 2,161.6

2079 -87.6 151.5 114.0 353.2 -33,677.8 2,240.7

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report

 With Ult Real TF Yield Rate of 3.0 Office of the Actuary

 Ult Real Treas Bond Yield Rate of 3.0 Social Security Administration

1/Reinvestment of dividends is not included in net purchase April 13, 2005
Table 2 c OASDI Cash Flow to General Fund of the Treasury--- Proposal vs. Theoretical OASD

 Proposal Theoretical Social Security with PAYGO Transfers

Net Amount of Cash-Flow from the OASDI Net Amount of Cash-Flow from the OASDI 

Trust Funds to the General Fund of the Trust Funds to the General Fund of the

 Treasury During the Year 1/ Treasury During the Year 1/

% of Billions of Dollars --- % of Billions of Dollars ---

Pyrl Current $ PV 1-1-04 2/ Const 2004$ Pyrl Current $ PV 1-1-04 2/ Const 2004$

2004 1.4 65 63 65 1.4 65 63 65

2005 1.9 89 82 87 1.9 89 82 87

2006 2.0 99 87 96 1.9 97 85 94

2007 2.1 110 91 104 2.0 105 87 99

2008 2.1 118 93 108 2.0 109 86 100

2009 2.0 118 88 105 1.8 105 78 93

2010 2.4 147 104 128 1.7 103 73 89

2011 2.4 153 102 129 1.6 101 67 85

2012 2.2 152 96 125 1.4 91 58 75

2013 2.1 148 89 118 1.1 79 47 63

2014 1.9 143 81 111 0.9 65 37 50

2015 1.7 135 72 102 0.6 48 25 36

2016 1.5 124 63 91 0.3 27 14 20

2017 1.3 111 53 79 0.0 4 2 3

2018 1.1 95 43 66 -0.3 -22 -10 -15

2019 0.8 77 33 52 -0.6 -51 -22 -35

2020 0.6 55 22 36 -0.9 -84 -34 -55

2021 0.3 32 12 21 -1.2 -119 -45 -76

2022 0.1 8 3 5 -1.5 -155 -56 -97

2023 0.8 94 32 57 -1.8 -195 -66 -118

2024 0.6 72 23 42 -2.1 -236 -76 -139

2025 0.4 47 14 27 -2.4 -279 -85 -160

2026 0.2 22 6 12 -2.7 -324 -93 -181

2027 0.0 -3 -1 -2 -3.0 -370 -100 -201

2028 -0.2 -28 -7 -15 -3.2 -416 -106 -220

2029 -0.4 -52 -13 -27 -3.4 -463 -112 -238

2030 -0.5 -76 -17 -38 -3.6 -510 -116 -255

2031 -0.6 -100 -21 -48 -3.8 -558 -120 -271

2032 -0.7 -122 -25 -58 -4.0 -606 -123 -287

2033 -0.8 -143 -27 -66 -4.1 -653 -125 -300

2034 -0.9 -161 -29 -72 -4.2 -699 -127 -313

2035 -0.9 -178 -30 -78 -4.3 -744 -127 -324

2036 -1.0 -193 -31 -82 -4.4 -788 -127 -334

2037 -1.0 -205 -31 -84 -4.4 -831 -127 -343

2038 -1.0 -214 -31 -86 -4.5 -873 -126 -350

2039 -1.0 -222 -30 -87 -4.5 -915 -124 -357

2040 -1.0 -232 -30 -88 -4.5 -956 -123 -363

2041 -1.0 -242 -29 -89 -4.5 -1,000 -121 -369

2042 -1.0 -252 -29 -91 -4.5 -1,045 -120 -375

2043 -1.0 -263 -28 -92 -4.5 -1,091 -118 -381

2044 -1.0 -279 -28 -95 -4.5 -1,139 -116 -387

2045 -1.0 -299 -29 -99 -4.5 -1,189 -115 -393

2046 -1.0 -321 -29 -103 -4.6 -1,241 -113 -399

2047 -1.1 -344 -30 -107 -4.6 -1,297 -112 -405

2048 -1.1 -368 -30 -112 -4.6 -1,355 -110 -412

2049 -1.1 -396 -30 -117 -4.6 -1,417 -109 -419

2050 -1.2 -429 -31 -124 -4.6 -1,483 -108 -427

2051 -1.2 -468 -32 -131 -4.6 -1,555 -107 -435

2052 -1.3 -510 -33 -139 -4.7 -1,634 -106 -445

2053 -1.4 -556 -34 -147 -4.7 -1,717 -105 -455

2054 -1.4 -605 -35 -156 -4.8 -1,805 -104 -465

2055 -1.5 -660 -36 -166 -4.8 -1,899 -104 -476

2056 -1.6 -720 -37 -176 -4.9 -1,999 -103 -487

2057 -1.6 -783 -38 -186 -4.9 -2,104 -102 -499

2058 -1.7 -848 -39 -196 -5.0 -2,214 -102 -511

2059 -1.8 -916 -40 -206 -5.0 -2,328 -101 -522

2060 -1.8 -988 -40 -216 -5.1 -2,447 -100 -534

2061 -1.9 -1,065 -41 -226 -5.1 -2,574 -100 -547

2062 -2.0 -1,149 -42 -237 -5.2 -2,709 -99 -560

2063 -2.0 -1,240 -43 -249 -5.2 -2,854 -98 -574

2064 -2.1 -1,333 -43 -261 -5.3 -3,003 -98 -587

2065 -2.1 -1,427 -44 -271 -5.3 -3,157 -97 -600

2066 -2.2 -1,528 -44 -283 -5.4 -3,319 -96 -614

2067 -2.3 -1,633 -45 -294 -5.4 -3,489 -96 -628

2068 -2.3 -1,741 -45 -305 -5.5 -3,665 -95 -641

2069 -2.4 -1,853 -45 -316 -5.5 -3,847 -94 -655

2070 -2.4 -1,968 -46 -326 -5.6 -4,037 -93 -669

2071 -2.5 -2,088 -46 -336 -5.6 -4,235 -92 -682

2072 -2.5 -2,214 -46 -347 -5.7 -4,442 -92 -696

2073 -2.6 -2,347 -46 -358 -5.7 -4,660 -91 -710

2074 -2.6 -2,488 -46 -369 -5.7 -4,888 -90 -725

2075 -2.6 -2,633 -46 -380 -5.8 -5,127 -89 -740

2076 -2.7 -2,786 -46 -391 -5.8 -5,377 -88 -755

2077 -2.7 -2,947 -46 -402 -5.9 -5,640 -87 -770

2078 -2.8 -3,117 -46 -414 -5.9 -5,915 -87 -785

2079 -2.8 -3,296 -46 -426 -6.0 -6,203 -86 -801

Total 2004-78 -435 -5,225

1/ Equals net investment in special Treasury Bonds by the 

 Trust Funds less the Amount of General Fund transfers Office of the Actuary

 specified in the theoretical plan (PAYGO Transfers). Social Security Administration

2/ PV discount at TreasBond yield April 13, 2005
Table 2 d Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Assets / Unfunded Obligation

Present Law OASDI Other

Trust Fund Assets Revenue Revenue Basic Total Change Proposal OASDI Trust Fund

or If Negative, from from Changes Through Assets / Unfunded Obligation

Unfunded Obligation Estate Balancing in OASDI End of Year Through End of Year

 Year Through EOY Tax Tax rate CashFlow without equity W/O equity With Equity

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)=(2)+(3)+(4) (6) (7)

(Billions of $, Present Value on 1-1-04 See Note Below)

2005 1,674.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,674.6 1,674.6

2006 1,759.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 1.7 1,760.7 1,760.7

2007 1,845.5 0.0 0.0 4.5 6.2 1,851.7 1,851.7

2008 1,930.8 0.0 0.0 7.1 13.3 1,944.0 1,944.0

2009 2,008.4 0.0 0.0 9.8 23.1 2,031.5 2,031.5

2010 2,080.8 18.0 0.0 13.4 54.5 2,135.3 2,135.3

2011 2,148.0 18.0 0.0 17.0 89.4 2,237.4 2,237.4

2012 2,205.6 18.0 0.0 20.4 127.9 2,333.5 2,333.5

2013 2,252.4 18.0 0.0 23.6 169.5 2,422.0 2,422.0

2014 2,289.0 18.0 0.0 26.4 213.9 2,502.9 2,502.9

2015 2,314.3 18.0 0.0 28.9 260.8 2,575.1 2,575.1

2016 2,327.9 17.9 0.0 31.3 310.0 2,637.9 2,637.9

2017 2,329.7 17.9 0.0 33.4 361.3 2,691.0 2,691.0

2018 2,319.7 17.8 0.0 35.2 414.3 2,734.0 2,734.0

2019 2,297.6 17.7 0.0 37.0 469.0 2,766.7 2,766.7

2020 2,263.7 17.6 0.0 38.5 525.2 2,788.9 2,788.9

2021 2,218.5 17.5 0.0 39.9 582.6 2,801.1 2,801.1

2022 2,162.6 17.4 0.0 41.2 641.2 2,803.8 2,803.8

2023 2,096.4 17.3 38.5 42.3 739.4 2,835.8 2,835.8

2024 2,020.7 17.2 38.0 43.3 838.0 2,858.7 2,858.7

2025 1,936.1 17.2 37.5 44.1 936.8 2,872.9 2,872.9

2026 1,843.3 17.1 37.0 44.8 1,035.7 2,879.0 2,879.0

2027 1,743.3 17.1 36.5 45.5 1,134.8 2,878.1 2,878.1

2028 1,637.0 17.0 36.0 46.1 1,233.9 2,870.9 2,870.9

2029 1,525.4 17.0 35.5 46.5 1,332.9 2,858.3 2,858.3

2030 1,409.4 16.9 35.0 46.8 1,431.7 2,841.1 2,841.1

2031 1,289.5 16.9 34.6 47.0 1,530.1 2,819.6 2,819.6

2032 1,166.5 16.8 34.1 47.2 1,628.3 2,794.8 2,794.8

2033 1,041.2 16.8 33.7 47.4 1,726.2 2,767.4 2,767.4

2034 914.6 16.7 33.2 47.5 1,823.6 2,738.2 2,738.2

2035 787.2 16.7 32.8 47.4 1,920.5 2,707.7 2,707.7

2036 659.9 16.7 32.3 47.2 2,016.6 2,676.5 2,676.5

2037 533.0 16.6 31.9 47.1 2,112.2 2,645.2 2,645.2

2038 407.2 16.6 31.5 46.9 2,207.2 2,614.3 2,614.3

2039 282.7 16.5 31.1 46.6 2,301.4 2,584.1 2,584.1

2040 159.8 16.5 30.6 46.0 2,394.6 2,554.3 2,554.3

2041 38.4 16.5 30.2 45.3 2,486.5 2,524.9 2,524.9

2042 -81.4 16.4 29.8 44.6 2,577.3 2,496.0 2,496.0

2043 -199.5 16.3 29.4 44.0 2,667.0 2,467.5 2,467.5

2044 -316.0 16.1 28.9 42.9 2,755.0 2,439.0 2,439.0

2045 -430.8 16.0 28.5 41.5 2,841.0 2,410.1 2,410.1

2046 -544.1 15.9 28.0 40.1 2,925.0 2,380.9 2,380.9

2047 -655.8 15.7 27.6 38.8 3,007.0 2,351.3 2,351.3

2048 -766.0 15.6 27.1 37.5 3,087.3 2,321.3 2,321.3

2049 -874.8 15.5 26.7 36.2 3,165.7 2,290.9 2,290.9

2050 -982.4 15.3 26.3 34.9 3,242.2 2,259.7 2,259.7

2051 -1,089.0 15.2 25.8 33.5 3,316.7 2,227.7 2,227.6

2052 -1,194.8 15.1 25.4 32.2 3,389.4 2,194.6 2,194.6

2053 -1,299.7 14.9 25.0 31.1 3,460.4 2,160.7 2,160.7

2054 -1,403.9 14.8 24.6 29.9 3,529.6 2,125.7 2,125.7

2055 -1,507.4 14.7 24.2 28.7 3,597.1 2,089.7 2,089.7

2056 -1,610.3 14.5 23.8 27.5 3,663.0 2,052.6 2,052.6

2057 -1,712.7 14.4 23.4 26.5 3,727.2 2,014.5 2,014.5

2058 -1,814.4 14.3 23.0 25.5 3,789.9 1,975.6 1,975.6

2059 -1,915.3 14.1 22.6 24.5 3,851.2 1,935.9 1,935.8

2060 -2,015.6 14.0 22.2 23.5 3,911.0 1,895.4 1,895.4

2061 -2,115.1 13.9 21.9 22.6 3,969.3 1,854.2 1,854.2

2062 -2,214.1 13.8 21.5 21.7 4,026.3 1,812.2 1,812.2

2063 -2,312.6 13.6 21.2 20.9 4,082.0 1,769.4 1,769.4

2064 -2,410.5 13.5 20.8 20.1 4,136.5 1,726.0 1,725.9

2065 -2,507.7 13.4 20.5 19.4 4,189.7 1,682.1 1,682.0

2066 -2,604.1 13.3 20.1 18.7 4,241.8 1,637.7 1,637.6

2067 -2,699.9 13.1 19.8 18.0 4,292.8 1,592.8 1,592.8

2068 -2,794.9 13.0 19.5 17.4 4,342.6 1,547.7 1,547.7

2069 -2,889.1 12.9 19.2 16.8 4,391.5 1,502.3 1,502.3

2070 -2,982.5 12.8 18.8 16.2 4,439.3 1,456.8 1,456.8

2071 -3,075.0 12.7 18.5 15.7 4,486.2 1,411.2 1,411.2

2072 -3,166.6 12.6 18.2 15.2 4,532.2 1,365.6 1,365.5

2073 -3,257.4 12.5 17.9 14.7 4,577.2 1,319.8 1,319.8

2074 -3,347.3 12.3 17.6 14.2 4,621.4 1,274.1 1,274.0

2075 -3,436.4 12.2 17.3 13.8 4,664.7 1,228.3 1,228.3

2076 -3,524.7 12.1 17.0 13.4 4,707.2 1,182.6 1,182.5

2077 -3,612.1 12.0 16.8 13.0 4,749.0 1,136.9 1,136.8

2078 -3,698.7 11.9 16.5 12.6 4,789.9 1,091.3 1,091.2

Total 2004-2078 1,072.6 1,485.5 2,231.8

Note: PV discount at TreasBond yield, except col (7) where PV discount at TF yield with equity returns

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report

 With Ult Real TF Yield Rate of 3.0 Office of the Actuary

 Ult Real Treas Bond Yield Rate of3.0 Social Security Administration

 April 13, 2005
Table 2 e Projected OASDI Taxable Payroll

OASDI Effective Taxable Payroll Percent Change in

Calendar Present Law Proposal Taxable Payroll 

Year Under the Proposal

 (billions of nominal dollars)

2004 4,501 4,501 0.0 %

2005 4,730 4,730 0.0

2006 4,985 5,002 0.3

2007 5,244 5,280 0.7

2008 5,511 5,566 1.0

2009 5,784 5,862 1.4

2010 6,065 6,180 1.9

2011 6,354 6,509 2.4

2012 6,646 6,845 3.0

2013 6,946 7,191 3.5

2014 7,258 7,548 4.0

2015 7,583 7,920 4.4

2016 7,919 8,305 4.9

2017 8,268 8,706 5.3

2018 8,630 9,120 5.7

2019 9,005 9,550 6.1

2020 9,391 9,994 6.4

2021 9,794 10,456 6.8

2022 10,209 10,935 7.1

2023 10,640 11,432 7.4

2024 11,085 11,946 7.8

2025 11,545 12,475 8.1

2026 12,024 13,028 8.3

2027 12,527 13,612 8.7

2028 13,054 14,224 9.0

2029 13,599 14,856 9.2

2030 14,166 15,512 9.5

2031 14,758 16,199 9.8

2032 15,381 16,927 10.1

2033 16,033 17,690 10.3

2034 16,714 18,483 10.6

2035 17,418 19,304 10.8

2036 18,153 20,163 11.1

2037 18,923 21,069 11.3

2038 19,728 22,016 11.6

2039 20,569 23,004 11.8

2040 21,442 24,019 12.0

2041 22,353 25,078 12.2

2042 23,302 26,188 12.4

2043 24,292 27,349 12.6

2044 25,321 28,515 12.6

2045 26,386 29,711 12.6

2046 27,491 30,955 12.6

2047 28,642 32,251 12.6

2048 29,842 33,607 12.6

2049 31,085 35,003 12.6

2050 32,374 36,454 12.6

2051 33,719 37,965 12.6

2052 35,120 39,545 12.6

2053 36,579 41,193 12.6

2054 38,101 42,906 12.6

2055 39,682 44,683 12.6

2056 41,324 46,531 12.6

2057 43,036 48,460 12.6

2058 44,817 50,471 12.6

2059 46,670 52,558 12.6

2060 48,600 54,729 12.6

2061 50,605 56,984 12.6

2062 52,699 59,345 12.6

2063 54,883 61,809 12.6

2064 57,155 64,367 12.6

2065 59,520 67,030 12.6

2066 61,964 69,783 12.6

2067 64,511 72,655 12.6

2068 67,183 75,665 12.6

2069 69,970 78,802 12.6

2070 72,868 82,068 12.6

2071 75,881 85,464 12.6

2072 79,015 88,995 12.6

2073 82,282 92,675 12.6

2074 85,685 96,508 12.6

2075 89,221 100,496 12.6

2076 92,900 104,638 12.6

2077 96,727 108,951 12.6

2078 100,711 113,439 12.6

2079 104,859 118,125 12.7

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report Office of the Actuary

Social Security Administration

 April 13, 2005