Social Security

Memorandum

Date: July 19, 2004 

To: Representative Paul Ryan 

From: Steve Goss, Chief Actuary 

Subject: Estimated Financial Effects of the “Social Security 

Personal Savings and Prosperity Act of 2004” --

INFORMATION 

This memorandum provides estimates of the financial effects of the plan you 

have developed for modifying the benefit and financing provisions of the Social 

Security program. Included is a description of the plan reflecting the intent 

expressed by you and Peter Fotos of your staff. Certain aspects of the plan that 

do not directly affect Social Security financing but are intended to alter budget 

scoring rules are not addressed in this memorandum. 

This plan would establish voluntary, progressive individual accounts for workers 

who are under age 55 on January 1, 2005 and would provide for a reduction in 

the Social Security retirement and aged survivor benefits for those who 

participate. All participating workers would be guaranteed that the total benefits 

available from the combination of the OASDI program and their personal account 

would be at least equal to OASDI benefits scheduled under current law, 

regardless of the investment option and portfolio allocation they choose. Those 

who never participate in the personal account option would be provided presentlaw scheduled benefits, but would not be guaranteed at this level. 

Personal savings account (PSA) assets would be invested by individual workers 

through a central administrative authority with a default allocation 65 percent in 

broad indexed equity funds and 35 percent in broad indexed corporate bond 

funds. Annuitization of the portion of the PSA accumulation sufficient to assure 

that total payments equal scheduled current-law benefits would be required at 

retirement. PSA contributions would be redirected from the OASDI Trust Funds. 

The ability of the Social Security Trust Funds to meet benefit obligations would 

be maintained through transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury that 

would be specified in the law. 

Under the plan specifications described below the Social Security program would 

be expected to be solvent and to meet its benefit obligations throughout the longrange period 2003 through 2077 and beyond. All estimates are based on the 
2

intermediate assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report plus additional 

assumptions described below. Estimates are not yet available based on the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report. However, such updated 

estimates, when available, are not expected to be materially different from those 

provided in this memorandum. 

 

Plan Specification 

Personal Savings Accounts 

Starting in 2005, all workers who will reach their 55th birthday on January 1, 2005 

or later will have the option to enroll in the personal savings account plan. 

Enrollees with earnings in OASDI (Social Security) covered employment will 

have a portion of their payroll tax contribution (12.4 percent of taxable earnings in 

total) redirected from the OASDI Trust Funds to an individual account. The 

percentage of taxable earnings to be redirected in 2005 will be 10 percent of the 

first $10,000 of covered earnings for the year, plus 5 percent of earnings in 

excess of $10,000 up to the OASDI taxable maximum amount (which is $87,900 

for 2004). The $10,000 threshold would be indexed by increases in the SSA 

national Average Wage Index (AWI) for years after 2005. The progressive scale 

for IA contributions redirected from the OASDI Trust Funds is estimated to 

amount to about 6.4 percentage points of the 12.4 percent payroll tax rate on 

average. The total amount redirected from the OASDI contribution rate indicated 

in Table 1 is less than 6.4 percent of payroll for years through 2029, because 

workers age 55 and older at the beginning of 2005 have no IA contributions. 

All individuals will be allowed to voluntarily enroll or disenroll from the individual 

account plan at any time during their working years. However, any amounts 

redirected to the account in earlier years would remain in the account until 

distribution as described below 

While participation in the PSA plan would be optional, and disenrollment allowed, 

the nature of the plan would provide a high likelihood for most workers that 

available retirement benefits will be more if enrollment is maintained. Total 

monthly retirement benefits for each worker who maintains enrollment throughout 

the period of eligibility would be guaranteed to be at least as large as benefits 

scheduled under current law for Social Security. In addition, personal account 

distributions are tax free, unlike Social Security benefits. Thus, participation is 

assumed to be universal for estimates presented in this memorandum. 

Individuals who never enroll would receive benefits scheduled under current law. 

PSA contributions directed to the PSA of a worker based on a year’s earnings 

are not determinable until earnings are reported to and tabulated by the Social 

Security Administration. Because this reporting is made by employers on an 

annual basis, after the end of the calendar year, amounts for individual workers 

are not determinable for somewhat over a year, on average, after the date on 
3

which earnings are paid. Under the proposal, PSA contributions during this initial 

period would be held in the Tier I fund and would be invested in long-term 

Treasury bonds, or similar securities. PSA contributions would be credited to the 

individual personal savings accounts as soon as current reporting permits. 

Under the plan, personal savings account (PSA) assets, once credited on an 

individual basis, would be automatically invested in the Tier II fund through a 

central administrative authority that would maintain all records of individual 

transactions and balances. Participants would be offered three investment 

options, including one with 80 percent in equities and another with 50 percent in 

equities. Unless otherwise specified, PSA balances would be maintained in the 

default portfolio with 65 percent in a specified broad index fund consisting of 

private equities for corporations based in the United States (such as the Wilshire 

5000) and 35 percent in a broad index of corporate bonds issued by companies 

based in the United States. The central administrative authority would group the 

assets of individuals for the purpose of transactions with private firms. Upon 

achieving a total PSA balance equivalent to $2,500 in 2005 (CPI-indexed 

thereafter) a broader range of investment options would be available in the Tier 

III fund. These options would be provided by qualified private investment 

companies, but would still be grouped by the central administrative authority for 

transactions with the investment firms. Due to the nature of the accounts, an 

ultimate administrative cost of 0.25 percent of assets is assumed to be 

reasonable. 

Annual changes in investment allocation would be allowed. Because the 

guaranteed benefit level is provided regardless of what investment portfolio is 

selected by the individual, substantial variation in investment patterns is assumed 

to occur. This variation will, in turn, result in a relatively wide distribution of 

achieved life-time investment returns among individuals. However, we assume 

that a large number of account holders will still retain the default portfolio. On 

average, we assume that the portfolio allocation for all accounts combined will be 

close to the default allocation. 

PSA Disbursements and Annuitization 

At retirement, the participating worker would be required to purchase a life 

annuity with CPI-indexed payments using the portion of PSA accumulated assets 

necessary to provide a total monthly payment (including any OASDI monthly 

benefit under the plan) that is at least equal to the benefits specified under 

current law from the OASDI program. The annuity would be administered by the 

central administrative authority, with private investment firms handling the 

investment of assets on an aggregated (group) basis. It is assumed that the 

annuity would be computed at retirement based on an assumption of investment 

of 65 percent in a broad equity index and 35 percent in a broad corporate-bond 

index, with an assumed administrative expense of 0.25 percent of assets each 
4

year. Assets supporting the annuity would, in fact, be invested 65 percent in 

equities and 35 percent in corporate bonds. 

The annuity would be computed using the assumed long-term future returns on 

equities and corporate bonds as determined by the central administrative 

authority at the time of annuitization. This central administrative authority would 

assume all risk associated with guaranteeing this yield on life annuities, 

regardless of what actual investment returns turn out to be. The central 

administrative authority would be backed by the Treasury of the United States 

government. Thus, the General Fund of the Treasury would provide the 

“insurance” that the full amount of the annuity will be paid for life regardless of 

actual investment returns. 

If less than the total amount of PSA assets is annuitized, the balance of PSA 

assets may be disbursed or held as the retired worker wishes. All accumulations 

in and disbursements from personal savings accounts, including annuity 

payments, would be exempt from Federal personal income tax. 

Upon entitlement to retirement or aged survivor benefits under the current rules 

of the OASDI program, a monthly CPI-indexed annuity amount based on the 

specifications described above would be computed by the central administrative 

authority. The annuity would reflect all potential benefits that might be payable 

under the OASDI program (i.e., retired worker, spouse, child, widow(er), and 

surviving spouse benefits). Annuity calculations would be made at benefit 

entitlement based on the then-current expected long-range future yield on 

invested assets and the then-current expected future death rates for the potential 

beneficiaries. 

For individuals who die before receiving retirement (retired worker or aged 

spouse) benefits, the IA assets will be transferred to the account of the surviving 

spouse, if any, but will be allocated as needed to provide annuities for any 

surviving children of the deceased. If there are no survivors, and the worker dies 

before such benefit entitlement, then the account balance goes to the worker’s 

estate, tax free. 

Social Security Recognition Bonds and Benefit Reduction 

OASI retirement and aged survivor benefits will be reduced based on the 

participation by the worker in the personal account option. Benefits payable to 

disabled worker beneficiaries (prior to conversion to retired worker status at the 

normal retirement age), to their dependents, and to survivors other than surviving 

spouse beneficiaries at age 60 or older are not subject to the reduction. 

Reductions in affected OASI benefits would be made based on the proportion of 

potential lifetime PSA contributions that was realized. Specifically, the benefit 

reduction would be equal to the present law scheduled OASI benefits multiplied 
5

by the ratio of (a) the present value of all contributions redirected to the worker’s 

PSA, to (b) the present value of all potential PSA contributions that might have 

been made if the plan had been in existence throughout the working lifetime of 

the worker. Present values would be computed using the realized OASDI annual 

Trust Fund yields. Potential contributions for years before 2005 would be 

computed by indexing the $10,000 threshold back to earlier years using the AWI. 

Based on the reduction described above, workers who first enter the workforce in 

2005 or later, and who choose to participate fully in the personal account through 

their working lifetime would have their affected OASI benefits reduced to zero. 

However, as noted above, the OASI program might still pay some benefits in 

cases where the annuity from fully annuitizing the PSA accumulation would be 

less than the present law scheduled OASI benefit. 

Recognition bonds would be issued to active workers who choose to participate 

in the PSA on the basis of earnings before January 1, 2005. The recognition 

bonds would not be marketable but would be redeemable to the trust funds for all 

benefits scheduled under the OASDI program immediately prior to enactment of 

this plan, subject to the reduction for plan participation described above. 

Personal Social Security Savings Account Board 

The personal accounts and special annuities (annuity required to make the total 

benefit at least equal to the present law scheduled OASI benefit) for all workers 

will be administered by a single entity, central administrative authority, under the 

direction of the Personal Social Security Savings Account Board. The central 

administrative authority would maintain records and issue periodic statements to 

account holders. The PSA management would be based on the design of the 

government employee Thrift Savings Plan (TSP), with limited reporting 

requirements. Aggregated assets would be invested by privately managed 

investment firms. Through this approach it is assumed that PSA administrative 

costs can be expected to be modest, ultimately around 0.25 percent of IA assets 

for each account holder. This might require some Federal subsidy in early years 

for the PSA, when account balances are low and start-up costs are incurred. 

General Fund Transfers to the Trust Funds 

The OASDI Trust Funds will receive transfers from the General Fund of the 

Treasury through three mechanisms. The first two mechanisms are designed to 

provide revenue in keeping with potential revenue gains associated with other 

provisions of the proposal that are not directly addressed in this analysis. The 

transfers from these three mechanisms would eventually be offset by a fourth 

mechanism for a “reverse” transfer from the Trust Funds to the General Fund. 
6

The first transfer mechanism would provide for amounts to be transferred to the 

OASDI Trust Funds equal to the potential corporate taxes that might result from 

investment of IA accumulations and annuities. The transfer amount would be 

computed assuming that all IA assets are invested in the default portfolio and 

that all IA accumulations available at retirement would be fully annuitized in the 

special life annuity offered by the central administrative authority. The 

computation of potential corporate tax revenue transfer would be specified in the 

law to follow the parameters adopted by former Senator Phil Gramm in his 

proposal. The parameters were laid out in the OCACT memorandum to Senator 

Gramm of April 16, 1999. 

“The “recapture of corporate tax” on individual 

account yield would be directed to the OASDI trust 

funds. This recapture would be specified in law, 

intending to reflect the additional corporate taxes 

resulting from the additional domestic corporate 

investment from account assets. The plan would 

specify that the recapture would be assumed to equal 

23.9 percent of the real, before tax, corporate return 

on investments. Because reported real yield on 

accounts would be after corporate tax, and the 23.9 

percent rate is intended to apply to corporate income 

before tax, the actual rate applied to after tax 

income would be 31.4% = 23.9% / (1-.239). This 

provision would provide a substantial and growing 

source of income to the OASDI program.” 

The value of 23.9 percent was derived from the assumption of an ultimate 

average 35 percent rate applied to 68.4 percent of invested IA assets. Thus, the 

General Fund transfer based on potential corporate tax resulting from IA and 

annuity investments would equal 31.4 percent of the yield on combined IA 

accumulation and annuity assets. 

The second transfer mechanism would specify transfers from the General Fund 

of the Treasury to the Trust Funds equal to the potential amount by which 

Federal Government spending would be reduced from a specific baseline, if 

growth in spending were reduced by 1 percent each year starting 2005 and 

lasting for at least 8 years (through 2012). The specified transfer amounts would 

be computed by a formula assuming that “baseline” Federal spending would 

equal 20 percent of GDP, and that the continuing 1-percent growth-rate 

reductions would continue as long as needed so that transfers to the OASDI 

program would result in combined Trust Fund ratios that would not be projected 

to fall below 100 percent under the provisions of the plan. Transfers would 

continue after the last year in which spending growth is assumed to be reduced, 

using that the cumulative percentage reduction computed for the last year for 

which an additional 1-percent growth-rate reduction was applied. 
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The plan would provide direction to the Congress and the President that the 

growth rate in total actual Federal Government spending should be diminished as 

specified above for the computation of transfers. Specified transfers to the Trust 

Funds would, however, not be contingent on achieving these reductions in actual 

Federal spending. 

The third transfer mechanism would provide for the Treasury to issue additional 

bonds to the public in order to generate revenue to transfer to the Trust Funds if, 

at any time, the combined OASDI Trust Fund ratio (TFR) is projected to fall 

below 100 percent under the provisions of the plan, including the first two transfer 

mechanisms. This provision would guarantee solvency for the Trust Funds in 

any circumstance. 

The fourth transfer mechanism would provide for a “reverse” transfer from the 

Trust Funds to the Treasury. This transfer would become effective when it is 

determined that in order to maintain an OASDI annual cash-flow balance (noninterest income less program cost) that is positive or zero for the future 

(1) the third transfer above is not projected to be needed in the future and (2) the 

full amount of transfers from the first two mechanisms is not projected to be 

needed for any future year, under the Trustees intermediate assumptions. 

Cuts in OASDI Contribution Rate 

If for any year net transfers described above are set at zero and are not projected 

to be needed in any future year, then the combined payroll tax rate (12.4 percent 

under current law) will be reduced to a level that maintains the annual OASDI 

cash-flow balance (non-interest income less program cost) at zero. However, 

this reduction will apply for any year only to the extent that it does not result in 

projections of a negative OASDI annual cash-flow balance for any future year 

under the Trustees intermediate assumptions. In addition, the combined OASDI 

payroll tax rate would in no case be reduced below 3.5 percentage points, 

roughly consistent with the minimal cost of providing benefits for disabled 

workers and their families, and for young survivors, in the future. 

Assumptions 

The guarantee of total payments at the level of present-law scheduled benefits 

would be available for all individual-account participants regardless of the 

portfolio allocation they choose in the Tier II and Tier III funds. The guarantee 

would assure that their total benefits will be no lower than present-law scheduled 

benefits from OASDI based on the law in effect just prior to enactment of this 

plan. Workers who do not participate in the PSA plan, however, may be subject 

to changes in scheduled benefits in future years. As a result, universal 
8

participation in the personal savings account option has been assumed for 

estimates presented in this memorandum. It is further assumed that most 

participants will retain the default portfolio allocation provided automatically in the 

Tier II fund, and that those who select other options will, in aggregate, invest with 

an allocation that results in a similar yield to that for the default allocation. 

The cost of providing the guarantee for individual account participants is 

estimated assuming variation in realized account yields across years, 

generations, and individuals within generations. For individuals or generations 

with account yields substantially below the average expected return, the 

guarantee may result in additional payments from the Trust Funds. Individuals 

may be more likely to have yields below average if they choose to either invest 

conservatively, of if they attempt to make changes in portfolio allocations in an 

effort to “time the market.” For individuals and generations that experience 

higher than expected returns, little if any cost for the guarantee will be incurred. 

As indicated above, estimates provided in this memorandum are based on the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report. Estimates based on the 

more recent 2004 Trustees Report are not yet available, but are not expected to 

be materially different from the results presented in this memorandum. In 

addition, the long-term ultimate average annual real yield assumed for equities is 

6.5 percent. This is somewhat lower than the historical real equity yield over the 

last several decades. 

A consensus is forming among economists that equity pricing, as indicated by 

price-to-earnings ratios, may average somewhat higher in the long-term future 

than in the long-term past. This is consistent with broader access to equity 

markets and the belief that equities may be viewed as somewhat less “risky” in 

the future than in the past. Equity pricing will vary in the future as in the past. 

Price-to-earnings ratios were very high through 1999, and are now lower. The 

average ultimate real equity yield assumed for estimates in this memorandum is 

consistent with an average ultimate level of equity pricing somewhat above the 

average level of the past. 

The assumption for an ultimate real equity yield of 7 percent that was used by the 

Office of the Chief Actuary until 2001 was developed in 1995 with the 1994-6 

Advisory Council. At that time, the Trustees assumption for the ultimate average 

real yield on long-term Treasury bonds was 2.3 percent. Real yields on 

corporate bonds are believed to bear a close relationship to Treasury bond yields 

of similar duration. The 2003 Trustees Report includes the assumption that the 

ultimate real yield on long-term Treasury bonds will average 3 percent, or 0.7 

percentage point higher than assumed in 1995. This increase in the assumed 

bond yield is consistent with a reduction in the perceived risk associated with 

equity investments. 
9

It should be noted that the precise effects of implementing a plan that would 

result in a large demand for equities and corporate bonds on the yields of these 

securities is not clear. This demand would likely be at least partially offset by 

reductions in demand for other investment mechanisms. For the purpose of 

these estimates, it is assumed that there will be no net dynamic feedback effects 

on the economy or on the financial markets. Moreover, the intended effects on 

growth in Federal spending are not reflected in these estimates. 

Financial Effects of the Plan 

Trust Fund Operations 

Table 1 indicates that under the intermediate assumptions of the 2003 Trustees 

Report and the assumed average yields for equities and corporate bonds 

described above, the OASDI program is projected to solvent throughout the 75-

year projection period and beyond. The annual cost rate (cost of the OASDI 

program as a percent of payroll) declines steadily after 2027, reflecting the 

increasing extent of benefit reductions associated with PSA participation. The 

annual balance (net cash-flow balance as a percent of payroll) is projected to 

reach zero for 2030 and beyond. The trust fund ratio is projected to reach a low 

point of 138 percent of annual program cost for 2028 and to gradually increase 

thereafter, because the retained interest on the assets will be more than needed 

to maintain a constant trust fund ratio. 

Net General Fund transfers expressed as a percent of taxable payroll are 

projected to rise to a peak of 7.35 percent for 2029 and decline thereafter, 

reaching zero for 2058 and later. The effective OASDI contribution rate is 

projected to be reduced from the nominal level of 12.4 percent by (1) the amount 

redirected to personal accounts, which reaches 6.4 percent of payroll for 2030 

and later, and (2) the cut in the contribution rate that is projected to be possible 

starting in 2058, while maintaining an OASDI annual cash-flow balance at zero. 

The net OASDI contribution rate is projected to decline to 4.22 percentage points 

for 2078. 

The actuarial deficit for the OASDI program over the 75-year projection period 

would be improved by an estimated 2.19 percent of taxable payroll, from an 

actuarial deficit of 1.92 percent of payroll projected under current law to a positive 

actuarial balance that rounds to 0.27 percent of payroll under the plan. 

Program Transfers and Assets 

Table 1a provides an analysis of General Fund net transfers under the plan and 

of net OASDI Trust Fund assets. Columns 1 through 3 provide the estimated 

amounts of annual transfers under the first, second, and fourth transfer 
10

mechanisms described above. The reverse transfers (column 3) begin in 2030 

and reach the level of the other two transfers combined for 2058 and later. Note 

that the additional transfers permitted under the third mechanism are not 

projected to be needed under these assumptions. Column 4 provides the 

cumulative total amount of net transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury 

under the plan through the end of each year. 

Total projected OASDI Trust Fund assets are shown in column 5. For purpose of 

comparison, the net OASDI Trust Fund assets are also shown for a theoretical 

Social Security program where borrowing authority is assumed for the Trust 

Funds. The theoretical Social Security program with borrowing authority is 

presented both without and with the net General Fund transfers expected under 

this plan, in columns 7 and 8, respectively. 

If the individual accounts are considered as a part of a “total system”, along with 

the OASDI program, then it is reasonable to consider “total system assets”. 

These would be the sum of net OASDI trust fund assets and PSA assets 

(columns 5 and 6). Under the intermediate assumptions and assuming full 

annuitization of IA assets, total system assets are expected to be large and 

growing in real terms at the end of the 75-year projection period. 

Effect on the Federal Unified Budget 

Table 1b provides estimates of the effect on federal unified budget cash flows 

and balances under this plan and these assumptions. All values in this table 

represent the amount of the change that would be expected as a result of 

implementing the proposal, from the level that would be projected under current 

law. The effect of the plan on unified budget cash flow (column 6) would be 

expected to be negative initially, but positive starting 2043. This total cash flow 

change is the combination of the specific plan effects shown in columns 2-5. It is 

important to note that these estimates are based on the intermediate 

assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report and thus are not consistent with 

estimates made by the OMB or the CBO based of their assumptions. 

Column 7 provides the projected effect of implementing the plan on the Federal 

debt held by the public. Column 8 provides the projected effect on the annual 

unified budget balances, including both the cash flow effect in column 6 and the 

additional interest on the accumulated debt indicated in column 8. 

As noted above, these projections do not reflect any potential change from 

reductions in the growth of Federal spending or from possible net increases in 

corporate taxes due to the individual account investments that are intended to 

occur as a result of implementation of this plan. The cumulative amounts of 

transfers to the Trust Funds associated with these intended effects are presented 

in columns 9 and 10. If these transfers were fully offset by corresponding 

increases in corporate tax revenue or reductions in Federal spending, then the 
11

projected change in the debt held by the public under this plan (column 7) would 

be reduced by these amounts. 

Cash Flow to the General Fund of the Treasury 

Table 1c provides estimates of the net cash flow from the OASDI Trust Funds to 

the General Fund of the Treasury. Revenue paid by the Treasury to the Trust 

Funds for the redemption of the special-issue Treasury obligations held by the 

Trust Funds is included here as a negative cash flow to the General Fund. 

Specified transfers from the General Fund under the plan also are shown as 

negative cash flow. 

Values in Table 1c are shown as a percent of taxable payroll, in current dollars, 

in present value dollars as of 1/1/2003, and in constant 2003 dollars (discounted 

to 2003 with the projected growth in the CPI). For comparison purposes, net 

cash flow is also shown for a theoretical Social Security program where transfers 

from the General Fund of the Treasury to the OASDI Trust Funds are assumed 

to occur as needed to assure full payment of scheduled benefits in 2042 and 

later. 

Development of Transfers under the Plan 

Table 1d provides estimates of the amounts of the specified transfers under the 

plan in present value discounted to January 1, 2003. Columns 1, 2, and 3 

develop the specified transfer based on the intended reduction in the growth in 

Federal spending. Column 1 provides the projected GDP under the Trustees 

intermediate assumptions. Column 2 provides what GDP would be if it grew 1 

percent slower in each of the years 2005 through 2012. Column 3 provides 20 

percent of the difference between columns 1 and 2, or the specified amount of 

transfer. Column 4 provides the estimated amount of annual transfers related to 

corporate tax on Individual Account investments. Column 5 provides the 

estimated reverse transfers, which are determined to offset the transfers in 

columns 3 and 4 when they are no longer needed. Column 6 provides the 

cumulative amount of net transfers from columns 3, 4, and 5 through the end of 

the year. Finally, the values in columns 7, 8, and 9 provide the annual net 

transfer amounts for the three mechanisms combined. 

Components of Cash Flow to the General Fund of the Treasury 

In Table 1e, total net cash flow from the trust funds to the general fund is 

shown in two components. The first is the cash flow due to the net 

amounts of the specified transfers to the trust funds under this proposal. 

The amounts of the specified transfers are detailed in columns (3), (4), 

and (5) of table 1d provided earlier. Under the specifications of the 
12

proposal, net specified transfers to the trust funds are expected to occur 

in years 2005 through 2057. 

The second component is the residual amount of cash flow due to the 

trust funds net purchase (or redemption) of assets held in the form of 

special-issue Treasury Securities. Net purchases of Treasury securities 

are projected to change to net redemptions starting in 2005, under the 

proposal. Net redemptions are projected to continue through 2029. For 

2030 and later, net redemptions of Treasury securities held be the trust 

funds are projected to be zero, consistent with the targeted zero OASDI 

annual cash-flow under the proposal. 

Sensitivity Analysis 

Tables 2, 2a, 2b, 2c, 2d, and 2e provide an analysis of the implications of 

realizing actual real yields on individual account assets that are equal to the 

assumed average real yield on long-term Treasury bonds, or 3 percent. This 

may be viewed as either illustrating the case where the average real yield on 

equities and corporate bonds is no higher than on government bonds, or 

illustrating the effect of assuming risk-adjusted returns on equities and corporate 

bonds. In either case, the “expected” yield on annuitized assets is assumed to 

match the actual yield, on average. It should be noted that while average real 

yields for equities have been at or below average bond yields for periods of a 

decade or so, the likelihood of having such a low average yield for a period of 

several decades seems extremely low. 

Table 2 indicates that net General Fund transfers would be needed longer, 

throughout the 75-year projection period. This is largely due to the fact that, with 

the assumed low yield on individual account assets, the cost of providing the 

guarantee is far higher—see table 2b column 3. The low yield also results in 

lower projected transfers based on corporate tax on IA investments—see table 

2a column 2. As a result, the specified transfer based on a formula related to 

potential reductions in growth in total Federal spending is increased by extending 

reductions for the formula for years 2005 through 2016, or 4 years longer than 

under the assumptions of tables 1. Thus, with the low yield assumed on 

individual account assets, reverse transfers do not reach the point of fully 

offsetting transfers based on slowed growth in Federal spending and corporate 

tax on account investments by 2078 (see table 2a) and it is not possible to 

reduce the payroll tax rate within this period. 

Only one sensitivity example is provided because the financial status of the 

OASDI Trust Funds under the plan is relatively insensitive to individual account 

returns. Even the very low average returns in tables 2 require only a 4 year 

extension of the period of annual increases for specified transfers. 
13

It must be noted that the uncertainties associated with equity investments, bond 

yields, and mortality improvement, as well as with a number of additional 

variables mean that actual experience could vary from the illustrations provided 

in Tables 1 and 2. In any case, the plan would provide for adequate financing for 

the OASDI program through the provisions described above. 

 

 Stephen C. Goss 

Attachments
Table 1 Ryan Prop--IA with Guarantee, Incrs GF Trans for spend cut thru 2012 IA Cntrb 6.4 %, Ben Offset 100.0 %

 With Ult Real TF Int Rate of 3.0 CorpTax toTF as%of Pre Change

 With Ult Real IA Yld Rate of 5.2 tax IA RealYld 23.9 in OASDI Effective Cut in IA Contrib

 With Annuity Net Yld Rate 5.2 Net GF Trans Effective OASDI Contrib Rate---

Cost Income Annual TFR to TF 1/ Contrib Contrib Rate for Redirected

Year Rate Rate 1/ Balance 1-1-yr (%ofPyrl) Rate Rate 2/ AnnBal from PyrlTax

2003 10.89 12.70 1.81 288 12.40 0

2004 10.82 12.69 1.88 309 12.40 0

2005 10.73 7.64 -3.10 330 0.32 -5.38 7.02 5.38

2006 10.65 7.92 -2.74 305 0.92 -0.32 6.69 5.71

2007 10.67 8.42 -2.24 282 1.52 -0.11 6.59 5.81

2008 10.73 8.94 -1.79 262 2.12 -0.10 6.49 5.91

2009 10.84 9.47 -1.37 246 2.73 -0.09 6.40 6.00

2010 10.99 10.01 -0.97 233 3.33 -0.08 6.32 6.08

2011 11.16 10.60 -0.56 223 3.94 -0.06 6.26 6.14

2012 11.37 11.18 -0.19 217 4.55 -0.05 6.21 6.19

2013 11.60 11.29 -0.31 214 4.69 -0.04 6.16 6.24

2014 11.84 11.41 -0.43 210 4.83 -0.04 6.12 6.28

2015 12.09 11.54 -0.55 205 4.97 -0.03 6.09 6.31

2016 12.34 11.68 -0.65 200 5.12 -0.02 6.07 6.33

2017 12.58 11.84 -0.75 194 5.27 -0.01 6.06 6.34

2018 12.82 12.00 -0.82 187 5.42 -0.01 6.05 6.35

2019 13.04 12.17 -0.88 181 5.59 -0.01 6.04 6.36

2020 13.26 12.34 -0.92 174 5.75 -0.01 6.03 6.37

2021 13.47 12.52 -0.95 167 5.92 -0.01 6.03 6.37

2022 13.65 12.70 -0.96 160 6.09 -0.01 6.02 6.38

2023 13.78 12.88 -0.91 155 6.26 0.00 6.02 6.38

2024 13.90 13.06 -0.84 149 6.44 0.00 6.02 6.38

2025 13.98 13.24 -0.74 145 6.62 0.00 6.01 6.39

2026 14.04 13.43 -0.61 141 6.80 0.00 6.01 6.39

2027 14.07 13.61 -0.45 139 6.98 0.00 6.01 6.39

2028 14.06 13.80 -0.26 138 7.17 0.00 6.01 6.39

2029 14.02 13.99 -0.03 139 7.35 0.00 6.01 6.39

2030 13.94 13.94 0.00 141 7.31 0.00 6.00 6.40

2031 13.83 13.83 0.00 145 7.20 0.00 6.00 6.40

2032 13.69 13.69 0.00 148 7.06 0.00 6.00 6.40

2033 13.52 13.52 0.00 153 6.90 0.00 6.00 6.40

2034 13.33 13.32 0.00 157 6.71 0.00 6.00 6.40

2035 13.12 13.11 0.00 162 6.51 0.00 6.00 6.40

2036 12.88 12.89 0.00 167 6.29 0.00 6.00 6.40

2037 12.63 12.63 0.00 173 6.04 0.00 6.00 6.40

2038 12.36 12.35 0.00 180 5.78 0.00 6.00 6.40

2039 12.07 12.07 0.00 187 5.51 0.00 6.00 6.40

2040 11.77 11.77 0.00 195 5.23 0.00 6.00 6.40

2041 11.46 11.46 0.00 203 4.93 0.00 6.00 6.40

2042 11.14 11.14 0.00 212 4.63 0.00 6.00 6.40

2043 10.81 10.81 0.00 222 4.31 0.00 6.00 6.40

2044 10.47 10.47 0.00 233 3.99 0.00 6.00 6.40

2045 10.14 10.13 0.00 245 3.67 0.00 6.00 6.40

2046 9.79 9.79 0.00 258 3.34 0.00 6.00 6.40

2047 9.44 9.44 0.00 272 3.01 0.00 6.00 6.40

2048 9.09 9.09 0.00 287 2.68 0.00 6.00 6.40

2049 8.75 8.74 0.00 303 2.35 0.00 6.00 6.40

2050 8.41 8.41 0.00 320 2.03 0.00 6.00 6.40

2051 8.07 8.07 0.00 339 1.71 0.00 6.00 6.40

2052 7.75 7.74 0.00 359 1.40 0.00 6.00 6.40

2053 7.42 7.42 0.00 381 1.09 0.00 6.00 6.40

2054 7.11 7.12 0.00 404 0.81 0.00 6.00 6.40

2055 6.84 6.84 0.00 427 0.55 0.00 6.00 6.40

2056 6.58 6.58 0.00 452 0.30 0.00 6.00 6.40

2057 6.34 6.34 0.00 477 0.07 0.00 6.00 6.40

2058 6.11 6.11 0.00 503 0.00 -0.15 5.85 0.15 6.40

2059 5.90 5.90 0.00 529 0.00 -0.20 5.65 0.35 6.40

2060 5.71 5.71 0.00 556 0.00 -0.18 5.47 0.53 6.40

2061 5.53 5.53 0.00 584 0.00 -0.17 5.30 0.70 6.40

2062 5.37 5.37 0.00 611 0.00 -0.15 5.15 0.85 6.40

2063 5.22 5.22 0.00 639 0.00 -0.14 5.01 0.99 6.40

2064 5.09 5.09 0.00 667 0.00 -0.13 4.88 1.12 6.40

2065 4.99 4.99 0.00 691 0.00 -0.09 4.79 1.21 6.40

2066 4.90 4.90 0.00 715 0.00 -0.08 4.71 1.29 6.40

2067 4.82 4.82 0.00 739 0.00 -0.07 4.63 1.37 6.40

2068 4.75 4.75 0.00 763 0.00 -0.07 4.56 1.44 6.40

2069 4.69 4.69 0.00 786 0.00 -0.06 4.50 1.50 6.40

2070 4.63 4.63 0.00 809 0.00 -0.05 4.45 1.55 6.40

2071 4.58 4.58 0.00 831 0.00 -0.04 4.41 1.59 6.40

2072 4.54 4.54 0.00 853 0.00 -0.04 4.37 1.63 6.40

2073 4.51 4.51 0.00 874 0.00 -0.03 4.33 1.67 6.40

2074 4.48 4.48 0.00 895 0.00 -0.03 4.31 1.69 6.40

2075 4.45 4.45 0.00 915 0.00 -0.02 4.28 1.72 6.40

2076 4.43 4.43 0.00 936 0.00 -0.02 4.26 1.74 6.40

2077 4.41 4.41 0.00 956 0.00 -0.02 4.24 1.76 6.40

2078 4.39 4.39 0.00 976 0.00 -0.02 4.22 1.78 6.40

 Summarized

CostRt IncRt ActBal Change in

2003 OASDI OASDI OASDI ActBal

-2077 10.58 10.85 0.27 2.19

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report

 With Ult Real Int Rate of 3.00 Office of the Actuary

1/ Includes Specified and CorpTax-based GF Transfers (see table .d) Social Security Administration

2/ Net payroll tax rate to the Trust Funds; reduced by amount redirected for IA contribution, and cut for annual balance July 15, 2004
Table 1 a Proposal GF Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Assets, Individual Account Assets, and Theoretical OASDI Assets

Theoretical Social Security 2/

Proposal General Fund Transfers Accumulated Total OASDI Individual with Borrowing Authority;

Specified for Corp Reverse GF Transfers Trust Fund Account Net OASDI TF Assets End of Yr 

Calendar Slowed FedGov Tax Tran for at End of Assets Assets 1/ Without GF With GF Transfer

Year Spending Recap Ann Balance Year at End of Yr at End of Yr Transfer (amount for prop)

 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

Billions of Constant 2003 Dollars Billions of Constant 2003 Dollars

2003 0 0 0 0 1,543 0 1,543 1,543

2004 0 0 0 0 1,683 0 1,683 1,683

2005 12 3 0 15 1,591 260 1,833 1,848

2006 36 8 0 61 1,506 556 1,990 2,050

2007 61 13 0 139 1,440 880 2,154 2,293

2008 87 19 0 252 1,392 1,233 2,323 2,575

2009 113 25 0 402 1,363 1,616 2,493 2,896

2010 141 32 0 592 1,352 2,029 2,664 3,257

2011 169 39 0 824 1,362 2,473 2,835 3,659

2012 198 46 0 1,100 1,393 2,945 3,001 4,101

2013 201 54 0 1,397 1,417 3,446 3,161 4,557

2014 205 62 0 1,714 1,435 3,975 3,312 5,026

2015 208 71 0 2,053 1,447 4,535 3,452 5,505

2016 212 80 0 2,416 1,452 5,122 3,579 5,995

2017 215 89 0 2,802 1,450 5,739 3,691 6,492

2018 219 100 0 3,213 1,444 6,386 3,786 6,999

2019 222 110 0 3,652 1,433 7,063 3,863 7,515

2020 226 121 0 4,119 1,418 7,771 3,921 8,040

2021 229 133 0 4,616 1,401 8,509 3,956 8,572

2022 233 145 0 5,144 1,381 9,279 3,971 9,114

2023 237 157 0 5,704 1,363 10,081 3,964 9,668

2024 240 170 0 6,298 1,349 10,914 3,936 10,234

2025 244 184 0 6,928 1,340 11,778 3,885 10,813

2026 248 198 0 7,595 1,338 12,674 3,813 11,408

2027 252 212 0 8,302 1,347 13,602 3,718 12,020

2028 256 227 0 9,049 1,369 14,560 3,601 12,649

2029 260 243 0 9,838 1,408 15,550 3,461 13,299

2030 264 259 16 10,655 1,450 16,571 3,300 13,955

2031 268 275 37 11,497 1,493 17,621 3,119 14,615

2032 273 292 60 12,361 1,538 18,701 2,917 15,278

2033 277 309 87 13,246 1,583 19,810 2,696 15,943

2034 282 327 116 14,151 1,630 20,947 2,457 16,608

2035 286 344 146 15,075 1,679 22,110 2,200 17,275

2036 291 363 178 16,016 1,729 23,299 1,925 17,942

2037 296 382 214 16,974 1,781 24,511 1,634 18,608

2038 300 401 251 17,946 1,834 25,746 1,326 19,272

2039 305 420 290 18,932 1,888 27,001 1,001 19,934

2040 310 439 331 19,931 1,945 28,275 661 20,591

2041 315 459 374 20,941 2,003 29,564 303 21,243

2042 320 479 418 21,961 2,063 30,867 -73 21,888

2043 325 499 465 22,989 2,125 32,180 -467 22,522

2044 330 519 512 24,026 2,189 33,499 -881 23,145

2045 335 539 560 25,070 2,254 34,823 -1,316 23,754

2046 340 559 609 26,121 2,321 36,148 -1,774 24,347

2047 345 579 660 27,177 2,390 37,473 -2,255 24,922

2048 350 599 711 28,239 2,462 38,791 -2,761 25,478

2049 356 619 762 29,304 2,536 40,091 -3,292 26,012

2050 361 638 813 30,375 2,612 41,371 -3,851 26,523

2051 366 657 864 31,449 2,690 42,631 -4,440 27,009

2052 372 675 915 32,528 2,770 43,866 -5,059 27,469

2053 377 693 967 33,611 2,853 45,089 -5,710 27,901

2054 383 711 1,017 34,700 2,939 46,300 -6,394 28,305

2055 389 729 1,065 35,796 3,027 47,498 -7,113 28,683

2056 395 747 1,112 36,900 3,117 48,681 -7,867 29,033

2057 401 764 1,158 38,015 3,210 49,849 -8,657 29,357

2058 407 782 1,188 39,155 3,306 51,002 -9,485 29,670

2059 413 799 1,211 40,330 3,405 52,138 -10,350 29,979

2060 419 815 1,234 41,540 3,507 53,258 -11,255 30,285

2061 425 832 1,257 42,786 3,612 54,361 -12,199 30,587

2062 432 848 1,279 44,069 3,720 55,447 -13,185 30,884

2063 438 864 1,302 45,391 3,832 56,517 -14,215 31,177

2064 445 879 1,324 46,753 3,946 57,571 -15,289 31,464

2065 451 895 1,346 48,156 4,064 58,609 -16,411 31,745

2066 458 910 1,368 49,600 4,186 59,632 -17,581 32,019

2067 465 925 1,390 51,088 4,311 60,641 -18,802 32,286

2068 472 940 1,412 52,621 4,440 61,637 -20,076 32,545

2069 479 954 1,433 54,200 4,573 62,620 -21,404 32,796

2070 486 969 1,455 55,826 4,710 63,593 -22,789 33,037

2071 493 983 1,476 57,500 4,851 64,557 -24,232 33,268

2072 500 997 1,498 59,225 4,997 65,513 -25,736 33,489

2073 508 1,012 1,519 61,002 5,146 66,462 -27,303 33,699

2074 515 1,026 1,541 62,832 5,300 67,406 -28,935 33,897

2075 523 1,040 1,563 64,717 5,459 68,346 -30,634 34,083

2076 530 1,054 1,584 66,659 5,622 69,284 -32,402 34,257

2077 538 1,068 1,606 68,659 5,791 70,221 -34,242 34,417

2078 546 1,082 1,628 70,718 5,964 71,158 -36,156 34,562

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report

1/ Including annuity assets, assuming all annuitize fully. Office of the Actuary

2/ Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption Social Security Administration

 that the law is modified to permit forrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury. July 15, 2004
Table 1 b IA Assets & Contributions, OASI Benefit Changes, & Total Unified Budget Effect--Plus Cumulative GF Transfers 1/

Ave IA Cntrb 6.4 %, Benefit Offset 100.0 %

IA+Annuity Amount Cost to guar Cut in Change Change in Change Cumulative Transfers

Balance Contrib to IA: OASDI +IA OASI Benefit Contrib in Annual Debt Held by in Ann Based on Based on

at End of % by Fed Gov benefits at Cut for IA Rate for UnifBudg the Public UnifBudg Fed Spending CorpTax

 Year Year 100 PLSched Participation AnnBal CashFlow (EOY) Balance Slowdown 1/ Recap 1/

 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

 (Billions of Constant 2003$)

2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0

2005 259.6 249.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -249.3 257 -256.9 12 3

2006 556.1 271.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -271.3 545 -295.0 49 12

2007 880.3 282.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 -282.8 853 -324.3 113 26

2008 1,233.3 293.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 -293.8 1,183 -354.4 206 46

2009 1,615.9 304.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -304.3 1,533 -385.0 329 73

2010 2,029.3 314.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -314.4 1,905 -416.3 484 108

2011 2,472.9 323.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 -323.3 2,297 -447.4 673 151

2012 2,944.8 331.3 0.8 0.7 0.0 -331.3 2,709 -478.8 897 203

2013 3,445.6 339.3 1.6 2.5 0.0 -338.4 3,140 -510.4 1,132 265

2014 3,975.5 346.9 2.6 5.0 0.0 -344.5 3,591 -541.9 1,377 337

2015 4,534.6 354.1 3.8 8.5 0.0 -349.4 4,059 -573.2 1,633 420

2016 5,122.4 360.4 5.0 13.6 0.0 -351.8 4,544 -602.9 1,900 515

2017 5,739.2 366.5 6.3 20.3 0.0 -352.5 5,043 -631.8 2,179 623

2018 6,385.8 372.4 7.7 28.2 0.0 -351.9 5,557 -660.7 2,470 744

2019 7,062.9 378.3 9.3 37.4 0.0 -350.2 6,085 -689.2 2,773 879

2020 7,770.6 384.2 10.9 48.3 0.0 -346.8 6,624 -717.0 3,088 1,031

2021 8,509.3 390.0 12.7 60.4 0.0 -342.3 7,176 -744.3 3,417 1,198

2022 9,279.2 395.8 14.6 73.6 0.0 -336.8 7,738 -771.2 3,760 1,384

2023 10,080.6 401.6 16.7 87.9 0.0 -330.4 8,310 -797.8 4,117 1,587

2024 10,913.6 407.5 18.9 103.5 0.0 -322.8 8,892 -823.8 4,488 1,811

2025 11,778.1 413.3 21.3 120.4 0.0 -314.2 9,483 -849.4 4,874 2,054

2026 12,674.2 419.1 23.8 138.4 0.0 -304.5 10,081 -874.3 5,276 2,320

2027 13,601.7 425.1 26.3 158.2 0.0 -293.2 10,685 -898.0 5,693 2,608

2028 14,560.4 431.1 29.0 179.6 0.0 -280.5 11,294 -920.6 6,128 2,921

2029 15,550.2 437.3 31.7 202.2 0.0 -266.8 11,908 -942.6 6,579 3,259

2030 16,570.6 443.6 34.5 225.9 0.0 -252.2 12,525 -963.8 7,049 3,623

2031 17,621.2 450.0 37.3 250.6 0.0 -236.7 13,145 -984.3 7,537 4,015

2032 18,701.3 456.6 40.1 276.3 0.0 -220.4 13,766 -1,004.2 8,044 4,436

2033 19,810.1 463.2 43.0 303.0 0.0 -203.2 14,388 -1,023.2 8,571 4,887

2034 20,946.7 469.9 45.9 330.6 0.0 -185.3 15,011 -1,041.5 9,118 5,370

2035 22,110.0 476.7 49.5 359.0 0.0 -167.1 15,633 -1,059.7 9,687 5,886

2036 23,298.7 483.5 53.1 388.5 0.0 -148.2 16,255 -1,076.9 10,277 6,436

2037 24,511.2 490.5 56.7 418.8 0.0 -128.3 16,875 -1,093.3 10,890 7,022

2038 25,746.1 497.4 60.3 450.2 0.0 -107.6 17,492 -1,108.5 11,526 7,645

2039 27,001.3 504.5 63.9 482.7 0.0 -85.8 18,105 -1,122.6 12,186 8,307

2040 28,274.8 511.6 67.6 516.4 0.0 -62.8 18,712 -1,135.1 12,871 9,009

2041 29,564.1 518.7 71.1 551.6 0.0 -38.3 19,313 -1,145.8 13,581 9,752

2042 30,866.7 525.9 74.7 588.4 0.0 -12.2 19,905 -1,154.5 14,318 10,538

2043 32,179.5 533.1 78.2 626.9 0.0 15.6 20,486 -1,160.8 15,082 11,368

2044 33,499.4 540.4 81.6 667.3 0.0 45.3 21,054 -1,164.6 15,874 12,243

2045 34,822.6 547.7 85.9 709.6 0.0 75.9 21,608 -1,166.6 16,695 13,166

2046 36,148.3 555.1 89.9 753.7 0.0 108.8 22,144 -1,165.6 17,546 14,137

2047 37,472.5 562.4 93.9 799.5 0.0 143.2 22,661 -1,161.7 18,428 15,158

2048 38,790.5 569.9 97.8 846.6 0.0 179.0 23,156 -1,155.5 19,342 16,230

2049 40,091.3 577.4 102.1 894.8 0.0 215.2 23,629 -1,147.4 20,288 17,354

2050 41,371.4 585.0 106.2 943.9 0.0 252.7 24,078 -1,136.8 21,269 18,531

2051 42,630.5 592.6 109.7 993.8 0.0 291.5 24,500 -1,123.4 22,284 19,763

2052 43,865.5 600.4 112.9 1,044.0 0.0 330.8 24,894 -1,107.8 23,336 21,051

2053 45,089.1 608.2 114.5 1,093.7 0.0 371.0 25,259 -1,089.8 24,424 22,397

2054 46,300.2 616.2 115.8 1,142.8 0.0 410.9 25,593 -1,070.3 25,552 23,802

2055 47,497.8 624.2 118.9 1,191.1 0.0 448.0 25,900 -1,051.8 26,719 25,267

2056 48,681.0 632.4 121.7 1,238.8 0.0 484.6 26,178 -1,032.2 27,927 26,794

2057 49,849.2 640.8 124.4 1,285.7 0.0 520.5 26,427 -1,011.6 29,177 28,386

2058 51,001.6 649.2 126.7 1,331.0 14.8 540.2 26,663 -1,006.1 30,471 30,042

2059 52,137.9 657.8 128.8 1,374.8 35.5 552.7 26,894 -1,007.2 31,810 31,766

2060 53,257.7 666.5 130.7 1,417.3 55.1 565.0 27,119 -1,008.2 33,196 33,559

2061 54,360.8 675.3 132.2 1,458.4 73.6 577.3 27,337 -1,008.8 34,630 35,422

2062 55,447.2 684.2 133.5 1,498.7 91.0 590.1 27,550 -1,008.6 36,113 37,358

2063 56,517.0 693.1 134.4 1,538.5 107.5 603.5 27,755 -1,007.4 37,648 39,368

2064 57,570.7 702.2 135.1 1,577.1 122.7 617.1 27,952 -1,005.5 39,235 41,455

2065 58,608.8 711.4 138.0 1,615.0 134.7 630.9 28,141 -1,002.9 40,877 43,620

2066 59,631.8 720.7 140.8 1,652.3 145.8 645.1 28,320 -999.4 42,576 45,865

2067 60,640.7 730.0 143.5 1,689.6 156.2 659.9 28,490 -994.8 44,332 48,194

2068 61,636.5 739.5 145.9 1,726.8 166.1 675.2 28,650 -989.1 46,148 50,608

2069 62,620.4 749.1 148.3 1,763.3 175.2 690.8 28,798 -982.5 48,025 53,109

2070 63,593.4 758.7 150.4 1,799.5 183.6 706.8 28,934 -974.7 49,967 55,700

2071 64,557.1 768.5 152.5 1,835.3 191.3 723.1 29,057 -965.9 51,974 58,384

2072 65,512.8 778.3 154.3 1,870.8 198.5 739.7 29,167 -956.1 54,048 61,163

2073 66,461.9 788.3 156.0 1,906.0 205.1 756.6 29,262 -945.2 56,193 64,039

2074 67,405.9 798.3 157.6 1,941.0 211.4 773.8 29,343 -933.2 58,409 67,017

2075 68,346.2 808.5 159.0 1,975.8 217.2 791.2 29,408 -920.0 60,700 70,099

2076 69,284.2 818.8 160.3 2,010.6 222.7 808.8 29,458 -905.8 63,067 73,287

2077 70,221.1 829.2 161.5 2,045.2 228.0 826.5 29,490 -890.4 65,513 76,586

2078 71,158.2 839.7 162.6 2,079.8 232.9 844.5 29,505 -873.8 68,041 79,998

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report Ultimate Real Yield Rate of IA 5.2

 With Ult Real Int Rate of 3.0 TF, Annuity Yield 5.2

Office of the Actuary

1/ General Fund Transfers to the Trust Funds have no effect on Social Security Administration

 the Unified Budget. See memorandum for discussion. July 15, 2004
Table 1 c OASDI Cash Flow to General Fund of the Treasury---Proposal vs. Theoretical OASDI

In Billions of Dollars

Proposal Theoretical Social Security with PAYGO Transfers

Net Amount of Cash-Flow from the OASDI Net Amount of Cash-Flow from the OASDI 

Trust Funds to the General Fund of the Trust Funds to the General Fund of the

 Treasury During the Year 1/ Treasury During the Year 1/

% of Billions of Dollars --- % of Billions of Dollars ---

Pyrl Current $ PV Jan 1, 03 Const 2003$ Pyrl Current $ PV Jan 1, 03 Const 2003$

2003 1.8 78 76 78 1.8 78 76 78

2004 1.8 84 77 82 1.8 84 77 82

2005 -3.4 -167 -144 -159 2.0 95 82 91

2006 -3.7 -189 -154 -175 2.0 104 84 96

2007 -3.8 -204 -156 -183 2.0 111 85 100

2008 -3.9 -224 -161 -195 2.0 113 82 99

2009 -4.1 -247 -167 -209 1.9 113 77 96

2010 -4.3 -272 -173 -223 1.8 111 71 91

2011 -4.5 -298 -179 -237 1.6 108 65 86

2012 -4.7 -328 -186 -254 1.4 100 56 77

2013 -5.0 -362 -193 -272 1.2 88 47 66

2014 -5.3 -399 -200 -291 1.0 73 37 53

2015 -5.5 -438 -207 -310 0.7 55 26 39

2016 -5.8 -478 -213 -329 0.4 33 15 23

2017 -6.0 -521 -219 -348 0.1 7 3 4

2018 -6.3 -566 -224 -367 -0.3 -23 -9 -15

2019 -6.5 -611 -228 -385 -0.6 -56 -21 -35

2020 -6.7 -659 -232 -403 -0.9 -92 -33 -56

2021 -6.9 -710 -235 -421 -1.3 -133 -44 -79

2022 -7.0 -760 -237 -437 -1.6 -176 -55 -101

2023 -7.2 -808 -238 -452 -1.9 -218 -64 -122

2024 -7.3 -856 -238 -465 -2.2 -263 -73 -143

2025 -7.4 -904 -237 -476 -2.5 -310 -81 -163

2026 -7.4 -951 -235 -486 -2.8 -358 -88 -183

2027 -7.4 -996 -232 -495 -3.1 -409 -95 -203

2028 -7.4 -1,039 -228 -501 -3.3 -461 -101 -222

2029 -7.4 -1,079 -223 -505 -3.5 -513 -106 -240

2030 -7.3 -1,116 -217 -507 -3.7 -565 -110 -257

2031 -7.2 -1,148 -211 -507 -3.9 -617 -113 -272

2032 -7.1 -1,177 -204 -504 -4.0 -669 -116 -286

2033 -6.9 -1,201 -196 -500 -4.1 -719 -117 -299

2034 -6.7 -1,221 -188 -493 -4.2 -770 -118 -311

2035 -6.5 -1,237 -179 -485 -4.3 -819 -119 -321

2036 -6.3 -1,249 -171 -475 -4.4 -869 -119 -331

2037 -6.0 -1,254 -161 -464 -4.4 -917 -118 -339

2038 -5.8 -1,254 -152 -450 -4.5 -966 -117 -347

2039 -5.5 -1,248 -143 -435 -4.5 -1,015 -116 -353

2040 -5.2 -1,236 -133 -418 -4.5 -1,065 -115 -360

2041 -4.9 -1,218 -124 -400 -4.5 -1,117 -113 -367

2042 -4.6 -1,193 -114 -380 -4.5 -1,171 -112 -373

2043 -4.3 -1,161 -105 -359 -4.6 -1,230 -111 -381

2044 -4.0 -1,122 -95 -337 -4.6 -1,292 -110 -388

2045 -3.7 -1,078 -86 -314 -4.6 -1,360 -109 -397

2046 -3.3 -1,025 -77 -290 -4.7 -1,433 -108 -406

2047 -3.0 -963 -69 -265 -4.7 -1,510 -108 -415

2048 -2.7 -894 -60 -239 -4.8 -1,593 -107 -425

2049 -2.4 -820 -52 -213 -4.8 -1,681 -106 -436

2050 -2.0 -738 -44 -186 -4.9 -1,776 -106 -447

2051 -1.7 -650 -37 -159 -5.0 -1,878 -106 -459

2052 -1.4 -556 -29 -132 -5.0 -1,989 -105 -472

2053 -1.1 -454 -23 -104 -5.1 -2,105 -105 -485

2054 -0.8 -348 -16 -78 -5.2 -2,227 -105 -498

2055 -0.5 -247 -11 -54 -5.2 -2,356 -105 -511

2056 -0.3 -143 -6 -30 -5.3 -2,490 -104 -525

2057 -0.1 -36 -1 -7 -5.4 -2,630 -104 -538

2058 0.0 -1 0 0 -5.4 -2,775 -103 -551

2059 0.0 -1 0 0 -5.5 -2,924 -103 -564

2060 0.0 -1 0 0 -5.5 -3,079 -102 -577

2061 0.0 -1 0 0 -5.6 -3,240 -101 -589

2062 0.0 -1 0 0 -5.6 -3,411 -100 -602

2063 0.0 -2 0 0 -5.7 -3,592 -99 -616

2064 0.0 -2 0 0 -5.7 -3,782 -99 -629

2065 0.0 -2 0 0 -5.8 -3,984 -98 -644

2066 0.0 -2 0 0 -5.8 -4,196 -97 -658

2067 0.0 -2 0 0 -5.9 -4,422 -97 -673

2068 0.0 -2 0 0 -6.0 -4,660 -96 -689

2069 0.0 -2 0 0 -6.0 -4,910 -95 -705

2070 0.0 -2 0 0 -6.1 -5,175 -95 -721

2071 0.0 -2 0 0 -6.1 -5,453 -94 -738

2072 0.0 -2 0 0 -6.2 -5,745 -93 -755

2073 0.0 -2 0 0 -6.3 -6,051 -93 -772

2074 0.0 -2 0 0 -6.3 -6,373 -92 -789

2075 0.0 -2 0 0 -6.4 -6,711 -91 -807

2076 0.0 -2 0 0 -6.4 -7,065 -91 -825

2077 0.0 -3 0 0 -6.5 -7,435 -90 -842

2078 0.0 -3 0 0 -6.6 -7,825 -89 -861

Total 2003-77 -7,889 -4,922

1/ Equals net investment in special Treasury Bonds by the 

 Trust Funds less the Amount of General Fund transfers Office of the Actuary

 included in the proposal or in the theoretical Social Security Administration

 plan (PAYGO Transfers). July 15, 2004
Table 1 d Proposal --Specified and Total General Fund Transfers to the OASDI Trust Funds

Specified GF Trans: Specified Proposal Net Annual Transfers

Proj GDP Cut in Fed Govt Transfer from Reverse Cumulative from the GF to the TF

with 1% less spend assumed= GF to TF for Transfer Net Transfer Billions of Percent Percent

Projected growth for 2005- 20% Corp Tax TF to GF, for from the GF PV$ 1-1-03 of GDP of Pyrl

GDP 2012 of diff {(1)-(2)} Recapture AnnBal 1/ =(3)+(4)-(5) cum = (3)+(4)-(5)

Year (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

(billions of PV$ 1/1/2003)

2004 10,531 10,531 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0

2005 10,494 10,441 11 3 14 14 0.1 0.3

2006 10,456 10,299 31 7 52 38 0.4 0.9

2007 10,407 10,149 52 11 115 63 0.6 1.5

2008 10,334 9,977 71 16 202 87 0.8 2.1

2009 10,247 9,794 91 20 313 111 1.1 2.7

2010 10,150 9,604 109 25 446 134 1.3 3.3

2011 10,047 9,412 127 29 602 156 1.6 3.9

2012 9,935 9,214 144 34 780 178 1.8 4.6

2013 9,818 9,105 143 38 961 181 1.8 4.7

2014 9,696 8,992 141 43 1,144 184 1.9 4.8

2015 9,571 8,876 139 47 1,331 186 1.9 5.0

2016 9,443 8,757 137 52 1,520 189 2.0 5.1

2017 9,319 8,643 135 56 1,711 192 2.1 5.3

2018 9,195 8,527 134 61 1,905 194 2.1 5.4

2019 9,074 8,415 132 65 2,102 197 2.2 5.6

2020 8,951 8,301 130 70 2,302 200 2.2 5.7

2021 8,830 8,189 128 74 2,505 202 2.3 5.9

2022 8,709 8,077 126 79 2,710 205 2.4 6.1

2023 8,589 7,965 125 83 2,917 208 2.4 6.3

2024 8,469 7,854 123 87 3,128 210 2.5 6.4

2025 8,350 7,744 121 91 3,340 213 2.5 6.6

2026 8,234 7,636 120 95 3,555 215 2.6 6.8

2027 8,120 7,531 118 99 3,773 217 2.7 7.0

2028 8,009 7,428 116 103 3,992 220 2.7 7.2

2029 7,900 7,327 115 107 4,214 222 2.8 7.4

2030 7,793 7,228 113 111 6.8 4,431 217 2.8 7.3

2031 7,689 7,131 112 114 15.3 4,642 211 2.7 7.2

2032 7,586 7,035 110 118 24.4 4,845 204 2.7 7.1

2033 7,484 6,941 109 121 34.0 5,041 196 2.6 6.9

2034 7,384 6,848 107 124 44.0 5,229 187 2.5 6.7

2035 7,285 6,756 106 127 54.0 5,408 179 2.5 6.5

2036 7,187 6,665 104 130 64.0 5,578 171 2.4 6.3

2037 7,090 6,575 103 133 74.5 5,740 161 2.3 6.0

2038 6,994 6,486 102 135 85.0 5,892 152 2.2 5.8

2039 6,899 6,398 100 138 95.3 6,034 143 2.1 5.5

2040 6,804 6,310 99 140 105.6 6,168 133 2.0 5.2

2041 6,710 6,223 97 142 115.8 6,291 124 1.8 4.9

2042 6,617 6,136 96 144 125.7 6,406 114 1.7 4.6

2043 6,524 6,050 95 146 135.5 6,510 105 1.6 4.3

2044 6,432 5,965 93 147 145.0 6,606 95 1.5 4.0

2045 6,340 5,880 92 148 154.0 6,692 86 1.4 3.7

2046 6,249 5,796 91 149 162.6 6,770 77 1.2 3.3

2047 6,159 5,712 89 150 171.0 6,838 69 1.1 3.0

2048 6,070 5,629 88 151 178.8 6,898 60 1.0 2.7

2049 5,982 5,548 87 151 186.2 6,950 52 0.9 2.4

2050 5,895 5,467 86 151 192.8 6,994 44 0.7 2.0

2051 5,809 5,387 84 151 199.0 7,031 37 0.6 1.7

2052 5,724 5,308 83 151 204.6 7,060 29 0.5 1.4

2053 5,640 5,230 82 150 209.8 7,083 23 0.4 1.1

2054 5,558 5,154 81 150 214.2 7,099 16 0.3 0.8

2055 5,476 5,079 80 149 217.8 7,110 11 0.2 0.5

2056 5,397 5,005 78 148 220.8 7,116 6 0.1 0.3

2057 5,319 4,932 77 147 223.3 7,117 1 0.0 0.1

2058 5,242 4,861 76 146 222.4 7,117 0 0.0 0.0

2059 5,166 4,791 75 145 220.2 7,117 0 0.0 0.0

2060 5,091 4,721 74 144 217.8 7,117 0 0.0 0.0

2061 5,017 4,653 73 142 215.3 7,117 0 0.0 0.0

2062 4,944 4,585 72 141 212.8 7,117 0 0.0 0.0

2063 4,873 4,519 71 139 210.2 7,117 0 0.0 0.0

2064 4,802 4,453 70 138 207.6 7,117 0 0.0 0.0

2065 4,732 4,388 69 136 204.9 7,117 0 0.0 0.0

2066 4,663 4,324 68 134 202.2 7,117 0 0.0 0.0

2067 4,594 4,261 67 133 199.4 7,117 0 0.0 0.0

2068 4,527 4,198 66 131 196.6 7,117 0 0.0 0.0

2069 4,460 4,136 65 129 193.8 7,117 0 0.0 0.0

2070 4,394 4,075 64 127 191.0 7,117 0 0.0 0.0

2071 4,329 4,015 63 125 188.2 7,117 0 0.0 0.0

2072 4,265 3,955 62 123 185.4 7,117 0 0.0 0.0

2073 4,202 3,897 61 122 182.6 7,117 0 0.0 0.0

2074 4,139 3,839 60 120 179.8 7,117 0 0.0 0.0

2075 4,078 3,782 59 118 177.0 7,117 0 0.0 0.0

2076 4,017 3,725 58 116 174.2 7,117 0 0.0 0.0

2077 3,957 3,670 57 114 171.5 7,117 0 0.0 0.0

2078 3,898 3,615 57 112 168.8 7,117 0 0.0 0.0

Total: 2003-77 6,791 7,939 7612.9

Office of the Actuary

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report Social Security Administration

1/ Limit reverse transfer to total of specified and recapture transfers July 15, 2004
Table 1 e Components of Cash Flow from the Trust Funds to the General Fund of the Treasury 

Cash Flow Due to Cash Flow for Total Cash Cash Flow Net Purchase

Total Cash Net Specified Net Purchase Flow to the Due to Net (Redemption)

Flow to the Transfers under (Redemption) General Fund Specified of Treasury

General Fund the Proposal of Treasury Transfers Securities

(Tab c:col 3) (Tab d: (5)-(3)-(4)) Securities (= Columns (1) (2) (3) in Constant Dollars)

Year (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

(billions of PV$ 1/1/2003) (billions of constant 2003 dollars)

2003 76 76 78 78

2004 77 77 82 82

2005 -144 -14 -130 -159 -15 -144

2006 -154 -38 -115 -175 -44 -131

2007 -156 -63 -93 -183 -74 -109

2008 -161 -87 -74 -195 -105 -89

2009 -167 -111 -56 -209 -138 -70

2010 -173 -134 -40 -223 -172 -51

2011 -179 -156 -23 -237 -207 -30

2012 -186 -178 -8 -254 -243 -11

2013 -193 -181 -12 -272 -255 -17

2014 -200 -184 -17 -291 -267 -24

2015 -207 -186 -21 -310 -279 -31

2016 -213 -189 -24 -329 -291 -37

2017 -219 -192 -27 -348 -304 -43

2018 -224 -194 -30 -367 -318 -48

2019 -228 -197 -31 -385 -332 -52

2020 -232 -200 -32 -403 -347 -56

2021 -235 -202 -33 -421 -362 -59

2022 -237 -205 -32 -437 -378 -60

2023 -238 -208 -30 -452 -394 -57

2024 -238 -210 -28 -465 -411 -54

2025 -237 -213 -24 -476 -428 -48

2026 -235 -215 -20 -486 -446 -40

2027 -232 -217 -14 -495 -464 -30

2028 -228 -220 -8 -501 -483 -18

2029 -223 -222 -1 -505 -503 -2

2030 -217 -217 0 -507 -507 0

2031 -211 -211 0 -507 -507 0

2032 -204 -204 0 -504 -504 0

2033 -196 -196 0 -500 -499 0

2034 -188 -187 0 -493 -493 -1

2035 -179 -179 0 -485 -485 -1

2036 -171 -171 0 -475 -475 0

2037 -161 -161 0 -464 -463 0

2038 -152 -152 0 -450 -450 -1

2039 -143 -143 0 -435 -435 0

2040 -133 -133 0 -418 -418 0

2041 -124 -124 0 -400 -400 0

2042 -114 -114 0 -380 -380 0

2043 -105 -105 0 -359 -359 0

2044 -95 -95 0 -337 -337 0

2045 -86 -86 0 -314 -314 0

2046 -77 -77 0 -290 -290 0

2047 -69 -69 0 -265 -265 0

2048 -60 -60 0 -239 -239 0

2049 -52 -52 0 -213 -212 0

2050 -44 -44 0 -186 -186 0

2051 -37 -37 0 -159 -159 0

2052 -29 -29 0 -132 -132 0

2053 -23 -23 0 -104 -104 0

2054 -16 -16 0 -78 -78 0

2055 -11 -11 0 -54 -53 0

2056 -6 -6 0 -30 -30 0

2057 -1 -1 0 -7 -7 0

2058 0 0 0 0 0 0

2059 0 0 0 0 0 0

2060 0 0 0 0 0 0

2061 0 0 0 0 0 0

2062 0 0 0 0 0 0

2063 0 0 0 0 0 0

2064 0 0 0 0 0 0

2065 0 0 0 0 0 0

2066 0 0 0 0 0 0

2067 0 0 0 0 0 0

2068 0 0 0 0 0 0

2069 0 0 0 0 0 0

2070 0 0 0 0 0 0

2071 0 0 0 0 0 0

2072 0 0 0 0 0 0

2073 0 0 0 0 0 0

2074 0 0 0 0 0 0

2075 0 0 0 0 0 0

2076 0 0 0 0 0 0

2077 0 0 0 0 0 0

2078 0 0 0 0 0 0

Office of the Actuary

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report Social Security Administration

 July 15, 2004
Table 2 Ryan Prop--IA with Guarantee, Incrs GF Trans for spend cut thru 2016 IA Cntrb 6.4 %, Ben Offset 100.0 %

Low Yield With Ult Real TF Int Rate of 3.0 CorpTax toTF as%of Pre Change

Sensitivity With Ult Real IA Yld Rate of 2.75 tax IA RealYld 23.9 in OASDI Effective Cut in IA Contrib

Analysis With Annuity Net Yld Rate 2.75 Net GF Trans Effective OASDI Contrib Rate---

Cost Income Annual TFR to TF 1/ Contrib Contrib Rate for Redirected

Year Rate Rate 1/ Balance 1-1-yr (%ofPyrl) Rate Rate 2/ AnnBal from PyrlTax

2003 10.89 12.70 1.81 288 12.40 0

2004 10.82 12.69 1.88 309 12.40 0

2005 10.73 7.62 -3.11 330 0.30 -5.38 7.02 5.38

2006 10.65 7.85 -2.80 305 0.86 -0.32 6.69 5.71

2007 10.67 8.31 -2.35 281 1.41 -0.11 6.59 5.81

2008 10.73 8.78 -1.95 260 1.96 -0.10 6.49 5.91

2009 10.84 9.26 -1.59 243 2.51 -0.09 6.40 6.00

2010 10.99 9.74 -1.25 228 3.06 -0.08 6.32 6.08

2011 11.16 10.27 -0.90 216 3.60 -0.06 6.26 6.14

2012 11.38 10.78 -0.60 207 4.15 -0.05 6.21 6.19

2013 11.62 11.29 -0.33 200 4.69 -0.04 6.16 6.24

2014 11.87 11.81 -0.06 196 5.22 -0.04 6.12 6.28

2015 12.12 12.32 0.20 194 5.75 -0.03 6.09 6.31

2016 12.39 12.85 0.46 194 6.28 -0.02 6.07 6.33

2017 12.64 12.92 0.28 197 6.35 -0.01 6.06 6.34

2018 12.90 13.00 0.10 198 6.42 -0.01 6.05 6.35

2019 13.14 13.08 -0.06 198 6.49 -0.01 6.04 6.36

2020 13.37 13.16 -0.21 197 6.57 -0.01 6.03 6.37

2021 13.61 13.24 -0.36 195 6.64 -0.01 6.03 6.37

2022 13.81 13.32 -0.48 193 6.71 -0.01 6.02 6.38

2023 13.96 13.40 -0.56 190 6.78 0.00 6.02 6.38

2024 14.10 13.48 -0.62 187 6.85 0.00 6.02 6.38

2025 14.21 13.55 -0.66 185 6.92 0.00 6.01 6.39

2026 14.30 13.63 -0.67 182 6.99 0.00 6.01 6.39

2027 14.36 13.70 -0.66 179 7.06 0.00 6.01 6.39

2028 14.38 13.77 -0.61 177 7.12 0.00 6.01 6.39

2029 14.37 13.84 -0.53 176 7.19 0.00 6.01 6.39

2030 14.33 13.91 -0.43 176 7.25 0.00 6.00 6.40

2031 14.26 13.97 -0.29 176 7.32 0.00 6.00 6.40

2032 14.16 14.03 -0.13 178 7.38 0.00 6.00 6.40

2033 14.04 14.04 0.00 182 7.39 0.00 6.00 6.40

2034 13.89 13.89 0.00 186 7.25 0.00 6.00 6.40

2035 13.72 13.72 0.00 191 7.09 0.00 6.00 6.40

2036 13.54 13.54 0.00 197 6.91 0.00 6.00 6.40

2037 13.34 13.34 0.00 203 6.72 0.00 6.00 6.40

2038 13.12 13.13 0.00 210 6.52 0.00 6.00 6.40

2039 12.90 12.89 0.00 217 6.29 0.00 6.00 6.40

2040 12.66 12.66 0.00 224 6.06 0.00 6.00 6.40

2041 12.41 12.41 0.00 232 5.83 0.00 6.00 6.40

2042 12.16 12.16 0.00 241 5.59 0.00 6.00 6.40

2043 11.90 11.90 0.00 250 5.34 0.00 6.00 6.40

2044 11.64 11.63 0.00 259 5.09 0.00 6.00 6.40

2045 11.37 11.37 0.00 270 4.84 0.00 6.00 6.40

2046 11.10 11.10 0.00 281 4.58 0.00 6.00 6.40

2047 10.83 10.82 0.00 293 4.32 0.00 6.00 6.40

2048 10.55 10.55 0.00 305 4.07 0.00 6.00 6.40

2049 10.30 10.29 0.00 318 3.82 0.00 6.00 6.40

2050 10.05 10.05 0.00 331 3.58 0.00 6.00 6.40

2051 9.80 9.80 0.00 345 3.35 0.00 6.00 6.40

2052 9.57 9.57 0.00 359 3.13 0.00 6.00 6.40

2053 9.33 9.33 0.00 375 2.90 0.00 6.00 6.40

2054 9.11 9.11 0.00 390 2.70 0.00 6.00 6.40

2055 8.90 8.90 0.00 406 2.49 0.00 6.00 6.40

2056 8.70 8.70 0.00 422 2.30 0.00 6.00 6.40

2057 8.51 8.51 0.00 439 2.12 0.00 6.00 6.40

2058 8.34 8.34 0.00 455 1.96 0.00 6.00 6.40

2059 8.19 8.19 0.00 471 1.82 0.00 6.00 6.40

2060 8.05 8.05 0.00 487 1.68 0.00 6.00 6.40

2061 7.93 7.93 0.00 503 1.57 0.00 6.00 6.40

2062 7.82 7.83 0.00 518 1.48 0.00 6.00 6.40

2063 7.73 7.73 0.00 533 1.39 0.00 6.00 6.40

2064 7.65 7.65 0.00 547 1.31 0.00 6.00 6.40

2065 7.58 7.58 0.00 561 1.24 0.00 6.00 6.40

2066 7.52 7.53 0.00 575 1.19 0.00 6.00 6.40

2067 7.47 7.47 0.00 589 1.14 0.00 6.00 6.40

2068 7.42 7.42 0.00 603 1.09 0.00 6.00 6.40

2069 7.38 7.38 0.00 616 1.05 0.00 6.00 6.40

2070 7.35 7.35 0.00 629 1.03 0.00 6.00 6.40

2071 7.33 7.33 0.00 642 1.00 0.00 6.00 6.40

2072 7.31 7.30 0.00 655 0.98 0.00 6.00 6.40

2073 7.29 7.29 0.00 667 0.96 0.00 6.00 6.40

2074 7.28 7.29 0.00 679 0.96 0.00 6.00 6.40

2075 7.27 7.28 0.00 692 0.95 0.00 6.00 6.40

2076 7.27 7.27 0.00 704 0.95 0.00 6.00 6.40

2077 7.27 7.27 0.00 716 0.94 0.00 6.00 6.40

2078 7.27 7.27 0.00 728 0.94 0.00 6.00 6.40

 Summarized

CostRt IncRt ActBal Change in

2003 OASDI OASDI OASDI ActBal

-2077 11.45 11.77 0.32 2.24

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report

 With Ult Real Int Rate of 3.00 Office of the Actuary

1/ Includes Specified and CorpTax-based GF Transfers (see table .d) Social Security Administration

2/ Net payroll tax rate to the Trust Funds; reduced by amount redirected for IA contribution, and cut for annual balance July 15, 2004
Table 2 a Proposal GF Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Assets, Individual Account Assets, and Theoretical OASDI Assets

Theoretical Social Security 2/

Proposal General Fund Transfers Accumulated Total OASDI Individual with Borrowing Authority;

Specified for Corp Reverse GF Transfers Trust Fund Account Net OASDI TF Assets End of Yr 

Calendar Slowed FedGov Tax Tran for at End of Assets Assets 1/ Without GF With GF Transfer

Year Spending Recap Ann Balance Year at End of Yr at End of Yr Transfer (amount for prop)

 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

Billions of Constant 2003 Dollars Billions of Constant 2003 Dollars

2003 0 0 0 0 1,543 0 1,543 1,543

2004 0 0 0 0 1,683 0 1,683 1,683

2005 12 2 0 14 1,590 257 1,833 1,847

2006 36 5 0 57 1,502 543 1,990 2,046

2007 61 8 0 129 1,430 850 2,154 2,283

2008 87 11 0 234 1,374 1,177 2,323 2,557

2009 113 14 0 373 1,333 1,524 2,493 2,866

2010 141 18 0 547 1,307 1,891 2,664 3,212

2011 169 21 0 760 1,298 2,277 2,835 3,595

2012 198 25 0 1,012 1,304 2,679 3,001 4,013

2013 227 28 0 1,306 1,325 3,097 3,161 4,466

2014 257 32 0 1,643 1,361 3,530 3,312 4,954

2015 287 36 0 2,025 1,414 3,978 3,452 5,477

2016 318 40 0 2,455 1,483 4,439 3,579 6,034

2017 323 44 0 2,907 1,544 4,912 3,691 6,597

2018 329 48 0 3,382 1,596 5,399 3,786 7,167

2019 334 52 0 3,881 1,640 5,898 3,863 7,744

2020 339 57 0 4,406 1,675 6,409 3,921 8,326

2021 345 61 0 4,957 1,703 6,931 3,956 8,913

2022 350 66 0 5,534 1,722 7,465 3,971 9,505

2023 356 71 0 6,140 1,737 8,010 3,964 10,104

2024 361 76 0 6,774 1,748 8,565 3,936 10,710

2025 367 81 0 7,439 1,756 9,130 3,885 11,324

2026 373 86 0 8,134 1,763 9,704 3,813 11,947

2027 379 91 0 8,861 1,771 10,287 3,718 12,579

2028 385 96 0 9,622 1,782 10,879 3,601 13,223

2029 391 101 0 10,417 1,797 11,478 3,461 13,878

2030 397 106 0 11,248 1,821 12,085 3,300 14,548

2031 404 111 0 12,116 1,854 12,698 3,119 15,234

2032 410 117 0 13,022 1,900 13,317 2,917 15,939

2033 417 122 3 13,964 1,957 13,942 2,696 16,660

2034 424 127 18 14,931 2,015 14,572 2,457 17,388

2035 430 133 35 15,922 2,075 15,205 2,200 18,122

2036 437 138 53 16,938 2,137 15,842 1,925 18,863

2037 444 143 73 17,976 2,201 16,481 1,634 19,610

2038 452 149 94 19,037 2,267 17,122 1,326 20,363

2039 459 154 117 20,120 2,335 17,764 1,001 21,121

2040 466 159 141 21,222 2,404 18,405 661 21,883

2041 473 165 165 22,346 2,476 19,045 303 22,648

2042 481 170 191 23,489 2,550 19,683 -73 23,416

2043 488 175 218 24,652 2,626 20,318 -467 24,185

2044 496 180 246 25,835 2,704 20,948 -881 24,953

2045 503 185 275 27,036 2,785 21,573 -1,316 25,720

2046 511 190 304 28,256 2,868 22,192 -1,774 26,482

2047 519 195 335 29,495 2,953 22,805 -2,255 27,240

2048 527 200 365 30,753 3,041 23,409 -2,761 27,992

2049 535 205 395 32,030 3,132 24,002 -3,292 28,738

2050 543 210 425 33,329 3,225 24,582 -3,851 29,477

2051 551 214 455 34,648 3,322 25,151 -4,440 30,208

2052 559 218 484 35,990 3,421 25,709 -5,059 30,931

2053 567 223 514 37,354 3,524 26,259 -5,710 31,644

2054 576 227 543 38,741 3,630 26,804 -6,394 32,347

2055 584 231 573 40,154 3,738 27,341 -7,113 33,041

2056 593 236 602 41,593 3,850 27,873 -7,867 33,726

2057 602 240 630 43,059 3,965 28,398 -8,657 34,402

2058 611 244 656 44,556 4,083 28,918 -9,485 35,071

2059 620 248 682 46,085 4,206 29,433 -10,350 35,735

2060 630 252 707 47,648 4,331 29,943 -11,255 36,394

2061 639 256 730 49,249 4,461 30,448 -12,199 37,050

2062 649 260 751 50,889 4,595 30,949 -13,185 37,703

2063 659 264 773 52,570 4,733 31,447 -14,215 38,355

2064 669 268 793 54,295 4,874 31,941 -15,289 39,005

2065 679 272 813 56,066 5,020 32,433 -16,411 39,655

2066 689 276 831 57,886 5,171 32,922 -17,581 40,305

2067 699 280 850 59,756 5,326 33,410 -18,802 40,954

2068 709 284 867 61,679 5,485 33,896 -20,076 41,603

2069 720 288 885 63,655 5,649 34,382 -21,404 42,252

2070 731 292 901 65,690 5,818 34,868 -22,789 42,902

2071 741 296 917 67,785 5,993 35,354 -24,232 43,553

2072 752 300 933 69,941 6,172 35,841 -25,736 44,205

2073 763 304 949 72,161 6,356 36,329 -27,303 44,858

2074 775 308 963 74,449 6,547 36,820 -28,935 45,514

2075 786 312 977 76,807 6,744 37,312 -30,634 46,173

2076 797 316 992 79,236 6,946 37,808 -32,402 46,834

2077 809 320 1,007 81,739 7,154 38,306 -34,242 47,497

2078 821 324 1,022 84,318 7,368 38,808 -36,156 48,163

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report

1/ Including annuity assets, assuming all annuitize fully. Office of the Actuary

2/ Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption Social Security Administration

 that the law is modified to permit forrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury. July 15, 2004
Table 2 b IA Assets & Contributions, OASI Benefit Changes, & Total Unified Budget Effect--Plus Cumulative GF Transfers 1/

Ave IA Cntrb 6.4 %, Benefit Offset 100.0 %

IA+Annuity Amount Cost to guar Cut in Change Change in Change Cumulative Transfers

Balance Contrib to IA: OASDI +IA OASI Benefit Contrib in Annual Debt Held by in Ann Based on Based on

at End of % by Fed Gov benefits at Cut for IA Rate for UnifBudg the Public UnifBudg Fed Spending CorpTax

 Year Year 100 PLSched Participation AnnBal CashFlow (EOY) Balance Slowdown 1/ Recap 1/

 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

 (Billions of Constant 2003$)

2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0

2005 256.6 249.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -249.3 257 -256.9 12 2

2006 543.3 271.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -271.3 545 -295.0 49 8

2007 850.0 282.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 -282.8 853 -324.3 113 16

2008 1,177.0 293.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 -293.8 1,183 -354.4 206 28

2009 1,524.0 304.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -304.3 1,533 -385.0 329 44

2010 1,891.3 314.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -314.4 1,905 -416.3 484 63

2011 2,277.3 323.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 -323.3 2,297 -447.5 673 87

2012 2,679.4 331.3 1.2 0.7 0.0 -331.8 2,709 -479.3 897 115

2013 3,097.3 339.3 2.5 2.5 0.0 -339.4 3,142 -511.4 1,158 147

2014 3,530.4 346.9 4.1 5.0 0.0 -346.0 3,594 -543.5 1,458 185

2015 3,977.9 354.1 5.8 8.4 0.0 -351.5 4,065 -575.6 1,798 227

2016 4,438.8 360.4 7.7 13.5 0.0 -354.6 4,552 -606.2 2,180 275

2017 4,912.3 366.5 9.8 20.1 0.0 -356.2 5,056 -636.1 2,578 328

2018 5,398.7 372.4 12.2 28.0 0.0 -356.7 5,575 -666.3 2,994 388

2019 5,897.5 378.3 14.9 37.2 0.0 -356.0 6,109 -696.3 3,428 453

2020 6,408.5 384.2 17.8 48.0 0.0 -354.0 6,657 -725.8 3,881 525

2021 6,931.1 390.0 20.9 60.0 0.0 -351.0 7,218 -755.1 4,352 604

2022 7,465.1 395.8 24.3 73.1 0.0 -347.0 7,792 -784.2 4,844 690

2023 8,009.8 401.6 28.0 87.4 0.0 -342.3 8,378 -813.3 5,356 784

2024 8,564.9 407.5 32.0 102.9 0.0 -336.5 8,976 -842.0 5,889 886

2025 9,129.9 413.3 36.2 119.7 0.0 -329.9 9,585 -870.5 6,443 995

2026 9,704.2 419.1 40.7 137.6 0.0 -322.3 10,205 -898.7 7,021 1,113

2027 10,287.4 425.1 45.5 157.3 0.0 -313.3 10,834 -926.1 7,621 1,240

2028 10,878.9 431.1 50.6 178.6 0.0 -303.2 11,471 -952.8 8,246 1,376

2029 11,478.2 437.3 56.0 201.0 0.0 -292.3 12,116 -979.3 8,896 1,521

2030 12,084.8 443.6 61.6 224.5 0.0 -280.7 12,769 -1,005.5 9,572 1,675

2031 12,698.0 450.0 67.6 249.1 0.0 -268.5 13,428 -1,031.5 10,275 1,840

2032 13,317.4 456.6 73.8 274.6 0.0 -255.8 14,095 -1,057.4 11,006 2,016

2033 13,942.2 463.2 80.4 301.1 0.0 -242.5 14,767 -1,083.1 11,765 2,202

2034 14,571.8 469.9 87.3 328.5 0.0 -228.7 15,446 -1,108.7 12,555 2,399

2035 15,205.4 476.7 94.9 356.7 0.0 -214.8 16,131 -1,134.5 13,375 2,607

2036 15,842.1 483.5 102.8 385.9 0.0 -200.4 16,821 -1,160.2 14,226 2,827

2037 16,481.3 490.5 111.2 416.0 0.0 -185.6 17,517 -1,185.7 15,111 3,060

2038 17,122.1 497.4 119.9 447.1 0.0 -170.2 18,217 -1,211.0 16,029 3,305

2039 17,763.7 504.5 128.9 479.3 0.0 -154.2 18,923 -1,235.9 16,983 3,562

2040 18,405.0 511.6 138.4 512.7 0.0 -137.3 19,632 -1,260.2 17,972 3,833

2041 19,045.1 518.7 148.2 547.5 0.0 -119.4 20,344 -1,283.8 18,999 4,118

2042 19,683.0 525.9 158.5 584.0 0.0 -100.4 21,058 -1,306.3 20,064 4,416

2043 20,317.7 533.1 169.1 622.2 0.0 -80.1 21,772 -1,327.6 21,169 4,729

2044 20,948.0 540.4 180.2 662.2 0.0 -58.4 22,485 -1,347.5 22,314 5,057

2045 21,572.9 547.7 191.8 704.0 0.0 -35.6 23,196 -1,366.1 23,502 5,400

2046 22,192.1 555.1 203.5 747.7 0.0 -10.8 23,903 -1,382.7 24,734 5,758

2047 22,804.5 562.4 215.6 793.1 0.0 15.1 24,605 -1,397.8 26,010 6,132

2048 23,408.9 569.9 228.2 839.7 0.0 41.6 25,300 -1,411.9 27,333 6,522

2049 24,001.6 577.4 242.2 887.3 0.0 67.8 25,989 -1,426.1 28,704 6,928

2050 24,582.2 585.0 256.2 935.9 0.0 94.6 26,672 -1,439.2 30,124 7,352

2051 25,151.3 592.6 270.0 985.2 0.0 122.6 27,346 -1,450.7 31,594 7,793

2052 25,708.7 600.4 283.9 1,034.9 0.0 150.6 28,011 -1,461.7 33,118 8,252

2053 26,259.4 608.2 295.8 1,084.0 0.0 180.0 28,666 -1,470.8 34,696 8,729

2054 26,803.5 616.2 307.7 1,132.5 0.0 208.6 29,311 -1,480.0 36,330 9,225

2055 27,341.2 624.2 319.1 1,180.4 0.0 237.0 29,946 -1,488.9 38,022 9,740

2056 27,872.7 632.4 330.5 1,227.6 0.0 264.7 30,572 -1,498.0 39,773 10,275

2057 28,398.4 640.8 341.7 1,274.0 0.0 291.5 31,189 -1,507.4 41,586 10,830

2058 28,918.4 649.2 352.8 1,318.8 0.0 316.8 31,798 -1,517.8 43,464 11,406

2059 29,433.1 657.8 363.8 1,362.2 0.0 340.5 32,401 -1,529.4 45,406 12,004

2060 29,942.9 666.5 374.7 1,404.1 0.0 362.9 33,000 -1,542.0 47,417 12,624

2061 30,448.2 675.3 385.5 1,444.7 0.0 383.9 33,594 -1,555.7 49,498 13,267

2062 30,949.4 684.2 396.1 1,484.5 0.0 404.3 34,185 -1,569.9 51,652 13,933

2063 31,446.8 693.1 406.5 1,523.7 0.0 424.1 34,774 -1,584.5 53,880 14,623

2064 31,941.1 702.2 416.8 1,561.8 0.0 442.8 35,361 -1,600.0 56,184 15,338

2065 32,432.7 711.4 426.6 1,599.3 0.0 461.3 35,947 -1,615.7 58,569 16,079

2066 32,922.0 720.7 436.3 1,636.3 0.0 479.3 36,532 -1,631.7 61,035 16,846

2067 33,409.6 730.0 445.7 1,673.2 0.0 497.4 37,115 -1,647.7 63,586 17,640

2068 33,896.1 739.5 455.0 1,709.9 0.0 515.4 37,698 -1,663.6 66,224 18,461

2069 34,381.9 749.1 464.1 1,746.1 0.0 533.0 38,280 -1,680.0 68,953 19,312

2070 34,867.7 758.7 473.0 1,782.0 0.0 550.2 38,862 -1,696.7 71,774 20,192

2071 35,353.8 768.5 481.8 1,817.4 0.0 567.1 39,443 -1,713.6 74,690 21,102

2072 35,840.8 778.3 490.4 1,852.5 0.0 583.7 40,026 -1,730.9 77,706 22,044

2073 36,329.3 788.3 498.9 1,887.3 0.0 600.1 40,608 -1,748.5 80,823 23,018

2074 36,819.6 798.3 507.3 1,921.9 0.0 616.3 41,192 -1,766.3 84,046 24,026

2075 37,312.2 808.5 515.6 1,956.3 0.0 632.3 41,776 -1,784.3 87,377 25,068

2076 37,807.6 818.8 523.8 1,990.7 0.0 648.1 42,362 -1,802.6 90,819 26,146

2077 38,306.0 829.2 532.0 2,024.9 0.0 663.8 42,949 -1,821.0 94,377 27,260

2078 38,808.0 839.7 540.1 2,059.1 0.0 679.3 43,538 -1,839.7 98,054 28,411

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report Ultimate Real Yield Rate of IA 2.75

 With Ult Real Int Rate of 3.0 TF, Annuity Yield 2.75

Office of the Actuary

1/ General Fund Transfers to the Trust Funds have no effect on Social Security Administration

 the Unified Budget. See memorandum for discussion. July 15, 2004
Table 2 c OASDI Cash Flow to General Fund of the Treasury---Proposal vs. Theoretical OASDI

In Billions of Dollars

Proposal Theoretical Social Security with PAYGO Transfers

Net Amount of Cash-Flow from the OASDI Net Amount of Cash-Flow from the OASDI 

Trust Funds to the General Fund of the Trust Funds to the General Fund of the

 Treasury During the Year 1/ Treasury During the Year 1/

% of Billions of Dollars --- % of Billions of Dollars ---

Pyrl Current $ PV Jan 1, 03 Const 2003$ Pyrl Current $ PV Jan 1, 03 Const 2003$

2003 1.8 78 76 78 1.8 78 76 78

2004 1.8 84 77 82 1.8 84 77 82

2005 -3.4 -167 -144 -159 2.0 95 82 91

2006 -3.7 -189 -154 -175 2.0 104 84 96

2007 -3.8 -204 -156 -183 2.0 111 85 100

2008 -3.9 -224 -161 -195 2.0 113 82 99

2009 -4.1 -247 -167 -209 1.9 113 77 96

2010 -4.3 -272 -173 -223 1.8 111 71 91

2011 -4.5 -298 -179 -237 1.6 108 65 86

2012 -4.8 -329 -186 -254 1.4 100 56 77

2013 -5.0 -363 -194 -273 1.2 88 47 66

2014 -5.3 -401 -201 -292 1.0 73 37 53

2015 -5.6 -440 -208 -312 0.7 55 26 39

2016 -5.8 -482 -215 -332 0.4 33 15 23

2017 -6.1 -526 -221 -351 0.1 7 3 4

2018 -6.3 -572 -227 -371 -0.3 -23 -9 -15

2019 -6.6 -620 -231 -390 -0.6 -56 -21 -35

2020 -6.8 -670 -236 -409 -0.9 -92 -33 -56

2021 -7.0 -723 -240 -429 -1.3 -133 -44 -79

2022 -7.2 -776 -242 -447 -1.6 -176 -55 -101

2023 -7.3 -827 -244 -462 -1.9 -218 -64 -122

2024 -7.5 -879 -244 -477 -2.2 -263 -73 -143

2025 -7.6 -931 -244 -491 -2.5 -310 -81 -163

2026 -7.7 -982 -242 -503 -2.8 -358 -88 -183

2027 -7.7 -1,033 -240 -513 -3.1 -409 -95 -203

2028 -7.7 -1,082 -237 -522 -3.3 -461 -101 -222

2029 -7.7 -1,128 -233 -528 -3.5 -513 -106 -240

2030 -7.7 -1,172 -228 -533 -3.7 -565 -110 -257

2031 -7.6 -1,213 -223 -536 -3.9 -617 -113 -272

2032 -7.5 -1,252 -217 -536 -4.0 -669 -116 -286

2033 -7.4 -1,287 -210 -535 -4.1 -719 -117 -299

2034 -7.3 -1,318 -203 -532 -4.2 -770 -118 -311

2035 -7.1 -1,347 -195 -528 -4.3 -819 -119 -321

2036 -6.9 -1,373 -187 -523 -4.4 -869 -119 -331

2037 -6.7 -1,394 -179 -515 -4.4 -917 -118 -339

2038 -6.5 -1,411 -171 -506 -4.5 -966 -117 -347

2039 -6.3 -1,425 -163 -496 -4.5 -1,015 -116 -353

2040 -6.1 -1,435 -155 -485 -4.5 -1,065 -115 -360

2041 -5.8 -1,440 -146 -473 -4.5 -1,117 -113 -367

2042 -5.6 -1,442 -138 -460 -4.5 -1,171 -112 -373

2043 -5.3 -1,439 -130 -446 -4.6 -1,230 -111 -381

2044 -5.1 -1,432 -122 -430 -4.6 -1,292 -110 -388

2045 -4.8 -1,421 -114 -415 -4.6 -1,360 -109 -397

2046 -4.6 -1,405 -106 -398 -4.7 -1,433 -108 -406

2047 -4.3 -1,383 -99 -380 -4.7 -1,510 -108 -415

2048 -4.1 -1,357 -91 -362 -4.8 -1,593 -107 -425

2049 -3.8 -1,331 -84 -345 -4.8 -1,681 -106 -436

2050 -3.6 -1,303 -78 -328 -4.9 -1,776 -106 -447

2051 -3.4 -1,271 -71 -311 -5.0 -1,878 -106 -459

2052 -3.1 -1,238 -66 -294 -5.0 -1,989 -105 -472

2053 -2.9 -1,199 -60 -276 -5.1 -2,105 -105 -485

2054 -2.7 -1,160 -55 -259 -5.2 -2,227 -105 -498

2055 -2.5 -1,120 -50 -243 -5.2 -2,356 -105 -511

2056 -2.3 -1,080 -45 -228 -5.3 -2,490 -104 -525

2057 -2.1 -1,040 -41 -213 -5.4 -2,630 -104 -538

2058 -2.0 -1,003 -37 -199 -5.4 -2,775 -103 -551

2059 -1.8 -970 -34 -187 -5.5 -2,924 -103 -564

2060 -1.7 -940 -31 -176 -5.5 -3,079 -102 -577

2061 -1.6 -914 -28 -166 -5.6 -3,240 -101 -589

2062 -1.5 -893 -26 -158 -5.6 -3,411 -100 -602

2063 -1.4 -876 -24 -150 -5.7 -3,592 -99 -616

2064 -1.3 -865 -23 -144 -5.7 -3,782 -99 -629

2065 -1.2 -857 -21 -139 -5.8 -3,984 -98 -644

2066 -1.2 -854 -20 -134 -5.8 -4,196 -97 -658

2067 -1.1 -853 -19 -130 -5.9 -4,422 -97 -673

2068 -1.1 -855 -18 -126 -6.0 -4,660 -96 -689

2069 -1.1 -862 -17 -124 -6.0 -4,910 -95 -705

2070 -1.0 -873 -16 -122 -6.1 -5,175 -95 -721

2071 -1.0 -889 -15 -120 -6.1 -5,453 -94 -738

2072 -1.0 -910 -15 -120 -6.2 -5,745 -93 -755

2073 -1.0 -936 -14 -119 -6.3 -6,051 -93 -772

2074 -1.0 -966 -14 -120 -6.3 -6,373 -92 -789

2075 -1.0 -1,000 -14 -120 -6.4 -6,711 -91 -807

2076 -0.9 -1,039 -13 -121 -6.4 -7,065 -91 -825

2077 -0.9 -1,081 -13 -123 -6.5 -7,435 -90 -842

2078 -0.9 -1,129 -13 -124 -6.6 -7,825 -89 -861

Total 2003-77 -9,104 -4,922

1/ Equals net investment in special Treasury Bonds by the 

 Trust Funds less the Amount of General Fund transfers Office of the Actuary

 included in the proposal or in the theoretical Social Security Administration

 plan (PAYGO Transfers). July 15, 2004
Table 2 d Proposal --Specified and Total General Fund Transfers to the OASDI Trust Funds

Specified GF Trans: Specified Proposal Net Annual Transfers

Proj GDP Cut in Fed Govt Transfer from Reverse Cumulative from the GF to the TF

with 1% less spend assumed= GF to TF for Transfer Net Transfer Billions of Percent Percent

Projected growth for 2005- 20% Corp Tax TF to GF, for from the GF PV$ 1-1-03 of GDP of Pyrl

GDP 2016 of diff {(1)-(2)} Recapture AnnBal 1/ =(3)+(4)-(5) cum = (3)+(4)-(5)

Year (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

(billions of PV$ 1/1/2003)

2004 10,531 10,531 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0

2005 10,494 10,441 11 2 13 13 0.1 0.3

2006 10,456 10,299 31 5 49 36 0.3 0.9

2007 10,407 10,149 52 7 107 58 0.6 1.4

2008 10,334 9,977 71 9 188 81 0.8 2.0

2009 10,247 9,794 91 11 290 102 1.0 2.5

2010 10,150 9,604 109 14 412 123 1.2 3.1

2011 10,047 9,412 127 16 555 143 1.4 3.6

2012 9,935 9,214 144 18 717 162 1.6 4.1

2013 9,818 9,014 161 20 898 181 1.8 4.7

2014 9,696 8,813 177 22 1,097 199 2.0 5.2

2015 9,571 8,612 192 24 1,312 216 2.3 5.8

2016 9,443 8,412 206 26 1,544 232 2.5 6.3

2017 9,319 8,302 203 28 1,775 231 2.5 6.4

2018 9,195 8,191 201 29 2,005 230 2.5 6.4

2019 9,074 8,083 198 31 2,234 229 2.5 6.5

2020 8,951 7,974 195 33 2,462 228 2.5 6.6

2021 8,830 7,866 193 34 2,690 227 2.6 6.6

2022 8,709 7,758 190 36 2,916 226 2.6 6.7

2023 8,589 7,651 187 37 3,140 225 2.6 6.8

2024 8,469 7,544 185 39 3,364 224 2.6 6.8

2025 8,350 7,439 182 40 3,586 222 2.7 6.9

2026 8,234 7,335 180 41 3,807 221 2.7 7.0

2027 8,120 7,234 177 42 4,027 220 2.7 7.1

2028 8,009 7,135 175 43 4,245 218 2.7 7.1

2029 7,900 7,038 172 44 4,462 217 2.7 7.2

2030 7,793 6,943 170 45 4,678 216 2.8 7.3

2031 7,689 6,850 168 46 4,892 214 2.8 7.3

2032 7,586 6,758 166 47 5,104 213 2.8 7.4

2033 7,484 6,668 163 48 1.3 5,314 210 2.8 7.4

2034 7,384 6,578 161 48 7.0 5,517 203 2.7 7.2

2035 7,285 6,490 159 49 13.0 5,712 195 2.7 7.1

2036 7,187 6,402 157 49 19.0 5,899 187 2.6 6.9

2037 7,090 6,316 155 50 25.3 6,079 179 2.5 6.7

2038 6,994 6,231 153 50 31.7 6,250 171 2.4 6.5

2039 6,899 6,146 151 51 38.3 6,413 163 2.4 6.3

2040 6,804 6,061 149 51 44.8 6,567 155 2.3 6.1

2041 6,710 5,978 146 51 51.2 6,713 146 2.2 5.8

2042 6,617 5,894 144 51 57.5 6,851 138 2.1 5.6

2043 6,524 5,812 142 51 63.7 6,981 130 2.0 5.3

2044 6,432 5,730 140 51 69.7 7,103 122 1.9 5.1

2045 6,340 5,648 138 51 75.5 7,217 114 1.8 4.8

2046 6,249 5,567 136 51 81.2 7,323 106 1.7 4.6

2047 6,159 5,487 134 51 86.7 7,421 98 1.6 4.3

2048 6,070 5,408 133 50 91.8 7,512 91 1.5 4.1

2049 5,982 5,329 131 50 96.5 7,597 84 1.4 3.8

2050 5,895 5,252 129 50 100.7 7,674 78 1.3 3.6

2051 5,809 5,175 127 49 104.7 7,746 71 1.2 3.3

2052 5,724 5,099 125 49 108.1 7,811 66 1.1 3.1

2053 5,640 5,024 123 48 111.6 7,871 60 1.1 2.9

2054 5,558 4,951 121 48 114.5 7,926 55 1.0 2.7

2055 5,476 4,879 120 47 117.2 7,976 50 0.9 2.5

2056 5,397 4,808 118 47 119.5 8,021 45 0.8 2.3

2057 5,319 4,738 116 46 121.4 8,062 41 0.8 2.1

2058 5,242 4,670 114 46 122.9 8,099 37 0.7 2.0

2059 5,166 4,602 113 45 123.9 8,133 34 0.7 1.8

2060 5,091 4,535 111 45 124.7 8,164 31 0.6 1.7

2061 5,017 4,470 110 44 125.0 8,192 28 0.6 1.6

2062 4,944 4,405 108 43 125.0 8,218 26 0.5 1.5

2063 4,873 4,341 106 43 124.8 8,243 24 0.5 1.4

2064 4,802 4,278 105 42 124.4 8,265 22 0.5 1.3

2065 4,732 4,215 103 41 123.7 8,286 21 0.4 1.2

2066 4,663 4,154 102 41 122.8 8,306 20 0.4 1.2

2067 4,594 4,093 100 40 121.9 8,325 19 0.4 1.1

2068 4,527 4,033 99 40 120.8 8,342 18 0.4 1.1

2069 4,460 3,973 97 39 119.7 8,359 17 0.4 1.0

2070 4,394 3,915 96 38 118.3 8,375 16 0.4 1.0

2071 4,329 3,857 95 38 116.9 8,390 15 0.4 1.0

2072 4,265 3,800 93 37 115.5 8,405 15 0.3 1.0

2073 4,202 3,743 92 37 114.0 8,419 14 0.3 1.0

2074 4,139 3,688 90 36 112.3 8,433 14 0.3 1.0

2075 4,078 3,633 89 35 110.7 8,447 14 0.3 1.0

2076 4,017 3,578 88 35 109.1 8,460 13 0.3 0.9

2077 3,957 3,525 86 34 107.5 8,473 13 0.3 0.9

2078 3,898 3,472 85 34 105.9 8,486 13 0.3 0.9

Total: 2003-77 9,783 2,826 4135.8

Office of the Actuary

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report Social Security Administration

1/ Limit reverse transfer to total of specified and recapture transfers July 15, 2004
Table 2 e Components of Cash Flow from the Trust Funds to the General Fund of the Treasury 

Cash Flow Due to Cash Flow for Total Cash Cash Flow Net Purchase

Total Cash Net Specified Net Purchase Flow to the Due to Net (Redemption)

Flow to the Transfers under (Redemption) General Fund Specified of Treasury

General Fund the Proposal of Treasury Transfers Securities

(Tab c:col 3) (Tab d: (5)-(3)-(4)) Securities (= Columns (1) (2) (3) in Constant Dollars)

Year (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

(billions of PV$ 1/1/2003) (billions of constant 2003 dollars)

2003 76 76 78 78

2004 77 77 82 82

2005 -144 -13 -131 -159 -14 -144

2006 -154 -36 -118 -175 -41 -134

2007 -156 -58 -98 -183 -69 -115

2008 -161 -81 -80 -195 -98 -97

2009 -167 -102 -65 -209 -127 -81

2010 -173 -123 -51 -223 -158 -65

2011 -179 -143 -36 -237 -190 -48

2012 -186 -162 -24 -254 -222 -32

2013 -194 -181 -13 -273 -255 -18

2014 -201 -199 -2 -292 -289 -4

2015 -208 -216 7 -312 -323 11

2016 -215 -232 17 -332 -358 26

2017 -221 -231 10 -351 -367 16

2018 -227 -230 3 -371 -377 6

2019 -231 -229 -2 -390 -386 -4

2020 -236 -228 -7 -409 -396 -13

2021 -240 -227 -12 -429 -406 -22

2022 -242 -226 -16 -447 -416 -30

2023 -244 -225 -19 -462 -427 -36

2024 -244 -224 -20 -477 -437 -40

2025 -244 -222 -21 -491 -448 -43

2026 -242 -221 -21 -503 -458 -44

2027 -240 -220 -20 -513 -469 -44

2028 -237 -218 -19 -522 -480 -41

2029 -233 -217 -16 -528 -492 -37

2030 -228 -216 -13 -533 -503 -30

2031 -223 -214 -9 -536 -515 -21

2032 -217 -213 -4 -536 -527 -10

2033 -210 -210 0 -535 -535 0

2034 -203 -203 0 -532 -532 0

2035 -195 -195 0 -528 -528 -1

2036 -187 -187 0 -523 -522 0

2037 -179 -179 0 -515 -515 0

2038 -171 -171 0 -506 -506 0

2039 -163 -163 0 -496 -496 0

2040 -155 -155 0 -485 -485 0

2041 -146 -146 0 -473 -473 0

2042 -138 -138 0 -460 -459 0

2043 -130 -130 0 -446 -445 -1

2044 -122 -122 0 -430 -430 -1

2045 -114 -114 0 -415 -414 -1

2046 -106 -106 0 -398 -397 -1

2047 -99 -98 0 -380 -380 -1

2048 -91 -91 0 -362 -362 0

2049 -84 -84 0 -345 -344 -1

2050 -78 -78 0 -328 -328 0

2051 -71 -71 0 -311 -310 -1

2052 -66 -66 0 -294 -294 0

2053 -60 -60 0 -276 -276 0

2054 -55 -55 0 -259 -260 0

2055 -50 -50 0 -243 -243 0

2056 -45 -45 0 -228 -227 0

2057 -41 -41 0 -213 -212 0

2058 -37 -37 0 -199 -199 -1

2059 -34 -34 0 -187 -187 0

2060 -31 -31 0 -176 -175 -1

2061 -28 -28 0 -166 -166 0

2062 -26 -26 0 -158 -158 0

2063 -24 -24 0 -150 -150 0

2064 -23 -22 0 -144 -143 -1

2065 -21 -21 0 -139 -138 0

2066 -20 -20 0 -134 -134 0

2067 -19 -19 0 -130 -130 0

2068 -18 -18 0 -126 -126 0

2069 -17 -17 0 -124 -123 -1

2070 -16 -16 0 -122 -122 0

2071 -15 -15 0 -120 -120 0

2072 -15 -15 0 -120 -119 -1

2073 -14 -14 0 -119 -118 -1

2074 -14 -14 0 -120 -120 0

2075 -14 -14 0 -120 -120 0

2076 -13 -13 0 -121 -121 0

2077 -13 -13 0 -123 -122 0

2078 -13 -13 0 -124 -123 -1

Office of the Actuary

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report Social Security Administration

 July 15, 2004