Social Security Actuarial Status

The 2021 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees 

of the OASI and DI Trust Funds

Key Results Under Intermediate Assumptions

STEVE GOSS, CHIEF ACTUARY, SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION

MERCATUS CENTER AT GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY 

VIRTUAL BRIEFING: SOCIAL SECURITY 2021 TRUSTEES REPORT

AUGUST 31, 2021
What is the Legislative Mandate for the 

Annual Report?

1. Trust Fund operations of the past year and the next five 

years

2. Actuarial status of the trust funds

◦ This means the ability to meet the cost of scheduled benefits 

with scheduled revenue and trust fund reserves

◦ And the extent to which scheduled revenue would fall short 

under current law, indicating the size of legislative changes that 

will be needed

2
Primary Changes This Year

The projections in the 2021 Trustees Report include the Trustees’ best estimates of the effects of 

the COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing recession, which were not reflected in last year’s report

(although see the next slide...)

1. OASDI reserve depletion is 2034, one year earlier than last year’s report. 

a) Actuarial deficit increased by 0.32 percent of payroll versus expected increase of 0.06 percent from 

change in valuation period alone

b) Annual deficits are larger through 2090

2. OASI reserve depletion is 2033 – one year earlier than last year’s report.

3. DI reserve depletion is 2057 – 8 years earlier than last year’s report.

a) Less revenue projected in the near term

b) Applications and benefit awards remained at historically low levels in 2020

c) Gradual increase to ultimate incidence rate

3
Comparison to 11/24/2020 OCACT Update

On November 24, 2020, we published a memo with our preliminary estimates of the effects of 

the COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing recession. See details at 

https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/solvency/UpdatedBaseline_20201124.pdf. 

4
Solvency: OASDI 

Trust Fund Reserve 

Depletion in 2034 

(one year earlier than last year)

Reserve depletion date varied from 

2029 to 2042 in reports over the past 

30 years (1992-2021).

DI Trust Fund – reserve depletion in 

2057, eight years earlier than last year.

Due largely to less revenue being 

projected for the DI program in the 

near-term. DI program continues to 

have low recent and near-term 

disability applications and awards.

5

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

450%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

Calendar Year

Social Security Trust Fund Ratios

Assets as a Percent of Annual Cost

Trustees Report Intermediate Projections

2021 TR DI

2020 TR DI

2021 TR OASI

2020 TR OASI

2021 TR OASDI

2020 TR OASDI

Historical Projected

Tax Rate

Reallocation
OASDI Annual Cost 

and Non-Interest 

Income as Percent 

of Taxable Payroll

Persistent negative annual cash-flow 

balance starting in 2010.

78 percent of scheduled benefits still 

payable at trust fund reserve 

depletion.

Annual deficit in 2095: 4.34 percent of 

payroll: 0.21 percent smaller than last 

year

6

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095

Calendar Year

OASDI Non-Interest Income, Cost and Expenditures 

as Percentages of Taxable Payroll

Cost: Scheduled and 

payable benefits

Cost: Scheduled but not fully 

payable benefits

Non-interest Income Expenditures: Payable benefits = income 

after trust fund depletion in 2034

Payable benefits as percent 

of scheduled benefits:

2020-33: 100%

2034: 78%

2095: 74%

Historical Projected
Aging - Change 

in Age 

Distribution

Mainly due to drop in birth rates

7

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Aged Dependency Ratio 2021 TR

Population 65+/(20-64) 

Actual and TR Intermediate

TFR remains at 3.0 after 1964

TFR remains at 3.3 after 1964

Historical Projected
SUSTAINABILITY: 

Cost as percent 

of GDP

Rises from a 4.2 percent average in 

1990-2008, to a peak of about 6.2 

percent for 2077, and then decline to 

5.9 percent by 2095.

8

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Calendar Year

OASDI Cost and Non-Interest Income as a Percentage of GDP

Historical Projected

Cost

Non-interest Income
Applications for 

Disability 

Benefits Remain 

Historically Low

At the peak of the last economic cycle 

in 2007, applications were low, but 

increased rapidly in the 2008 recession 

from 1.5 million in 2007 to 1.9 million 

in 2010.

In 2016 through 2020, applications 

have dropped below the 2007 level.

9

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

(millions)

Social Security Disabled Worker Receipts at Disability Determination 

Services by Calendar Year: Historical and Intermediate Assumptions 

for 2012 through 2021 Trustees Reports

2012TR

2017TR

2016TR

2015TR

2014TR

2013TR

2018TR 2019TR

2020TR

2021TR
Disability 

Incidence Rate 

Also Remains 

Historically Low

DI disabled worker incidence rate rose 

sharply in the 2008 recession, and has 

declined since the peak in 2010 to 

extraordinarily low levels in 2016 

through 2020.

10

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

DI Age-Sex-Adjusted Incidence Rates:

Historical and Intermediate Assumptions for 2012 through 2021 Trustees Report

2012TR

2013TR

2014TR

2015TR

2016TR

2017TR

Average 1990-2020 5.10

Ultimate Assumption 5.00

2018TR

2019TR

2020TR

2021TR
Fewer Disabled 

Worker 

Beneficiaries

Fewer now and in near term based on 

recent applications and incidence 

rates.

11

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028

Calendar Year

Disabled Worker Beneficiaries

In Current Payment Status at End of Year (in thousands)

2008 TR (no recession)

2020 TR

2021 TR
Mortality 

Experience: All 

Ages

Increased mortality in the near-term 

to reflect the effects of the COVID-19 

pandemic.

12

700

750

800

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Age-Sex-Adjusted Death Rates (per 100,000)

Total, All Ages

2019TR 2020TR 2021TR Actual
Ratio of 

Employment to 

Population

Expected to recover fully from the 

brief but steep recession. 

Expected to rise to same overall level 

as in the 2020TR. Under the new 

Labor Force model, difference 

between men and women narrowed 

somewhat. Slightly lower LFPR is 

offset by lower expected average 

unemployment rate, consistent with 

recent experience.

13

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091

Ratio of Employment to Population 

(16 and older, age-sex-adjusted to 2011 population)

2020 TR

2021 TR

Age-sex-adjusted

Men (age-adjusted)

Women (age-adjusted)

Historical Projected
Lower Potential 

GDP in 2021 TR 

Compared to 

2020 TR

Potential GDP is roughly 1 percent 

lower than the level in the 2020 TR.

Reflects expectation of a permanent 

level shift due to effects of the 

recession on total economy labor 

productivity and size of the population 

ages 16+.

14

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

Potential GDP

(billions of 2012 dollars, intermediate assumptions)

2010 TR

2020 TR

2021 TR

Historical Projected
Principal Reasons for Actuarial Balance

Change in 2021 Report

•Valuation Period - 0.06 percent

•Legislation (restore and maintain the DACA program) - 0.01 percent

•Demographic data, assumptions and methods - 0.01 percent • New cohort fertility method and higher ultimate fertility rate (roughly offsetting cost effects) • New dementia cause of death category • Higher recent and projected near-term mortality due to COVID-19 pandemic

•Economic data, assumptions and methods - 0.09 percent • Updated labor force projection model and lower ultimate unemployment rate

• Slightly faster real growth in average wage levels • Lower near-term real interest rates • Level of productivity and GDP permanently lowered by 1 percent due to recession

• Reduced level of revenue from taxation of benefits

•Other new data and methods improvements - 0.16 percent

Net Changes for All Reasons -0.32 percent

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How to Eliminate the Social Security 

Long-Term Actuarial Deficit

Make choices addressing OASDI deficits 2034 -2095:

• Raise scheduled revenue after 2033 by about one-third.

• Reduce scheduled benefits after 2033 by about one-fourth

• Or some combination of the two

16
For More Information Go to 

http://www.ssa.gov/oact/

• There you will find:

• This and all prior OASDI Trustees Reports

• Detailed single-year tables for recent reports

• Our estimates for comprehensive proposals and individual provisions

• Actuarial notes; including replacement rates

• Actuarial studies; including stochastic

• Extensive databases

• Congressional testimonies

• Presentations by OCACT employees

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