SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

May 29, 2015

The Honorable Ted Deutch

United States House of Representatives

Washington, D.C. 20515

Dear Representative Deutch:

I am writing in response to your request for estimates of the financial effects on Social Security 

of H.R. 1811, the Protecting and Preserving Social Security Act, which you introduced April 15, 

2015. This Bill (hereafter referred to as the proposal) includes three provisions with direct effects 

on the Social Security Trust Funds. We have enjoyed working closely with Joel Richard of your 

staff in developing this proposal to meet your goals.

The enclosed tables provide estimates of the effects of the three provisions on the cost, income, 

and combined trust fund reserves for the Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) 

program, as well as estimated effects on retired worker benefit levels for selected hypothetical 

workers. In addition, tables 1b and 1b.n provide estimates of the Federal budget implications of 

the three provisions. Assuming enactment of the proposal, the projected trust fund reserve 

depletion year for the theoretical combined OASI and DI Trust Funds would be extended to 

2051. Under current law, the projected trust fund reserve depletion year for the combined trust 

funds is 2033.

We base all estimates on the intermediate assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report. The 

estimates and analysis provided here reflect the combined effort of many in the Office of the 

Chief Actuary, but most particularly Alice Wade, Christopher Chaplain, Daniel Nickerson, Jason 

Schultz, Kyle Burkhalter, Katie Sutton, Tiffany Bosley, and Karen Glenn.

The Bill includes the following three provisions with direct effects on the OASDI program:

Section 102. Use the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E) to calculate the costof-living adjustment (COLA), beginning with the December 2017 COLA. We assume this 

change would increase the COLA by an average of 0.2 percentage point per year.

Section 201. Eliminate the OASDI taxable maximum in years 2022 and later; thus the full

12.4 percent OASDI payroll tax rate would apply to all OASDI covered earnings. The 

portion of the full 12.4 percent tax rate that would apply to covered earnings over this 
Page 2 – The Honorable Ted Deutch

taxable maximum would increase linearly, starting at 1.8 percent (12.4 x 1/7) for 2016 

and reaching 100 percent for 2022 and later.

Section 202. Provide benefit credit on earnings taxed above the current-law taxable 

maximum. The primary insurance amount (PIA) would be determined using an “AIME+”

method.

The balance of this letter provides a summary of the effects of the three provisions on the 

actuarial status of the OASDI program, our understanding of the specifications and intent of each 

provision, and descriptions of our detailed financial estimates for trust fund operations, benefit 

levels, and implications for the Federal budget.

Summary of Effects of the Proposal on OASDI Actuarial Status

Figure 1 below illustrates the estimated change in the combined OASI and DI Trust Fund 

reserves, expressed as a percent of annual program cost, assuming enactment of the three 

provisions of this proposal. Assuming enactment, OASDI Trust Fund reserves would be 

expected to become depleted in 2051. We base these projections on the intermediate assumptions 

of the 2014 Trustees Report.
Page 3 – The Honorable Ted Deutch

For the theoretical combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, under current law, 77 percent of 

scheduled benefits are projected to be payable in 2033 after reserve depletion, declining to 72 

percent by 2088. Under the proposal, the reserves for the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds 

are projected to deplete in 2051, 18 years later than under current law. In 2051, after depletion, 

89 percent of scheduled benefits would be payable on a timely basis, declining to 83 percent 

payable in 2088. Enactment of this proposal would reduce the long-range (75-year) actuarial 

deficit by 1.76 percent of taxable payroll, from a deficit of 2.88 percent of payroll under present 

law to a deficit of 1.12 percent of payroll under the proposal.

Figure 2 illustrates annual projected levels of cost, expenditures, and non-interest income as a 

percent of the present-law taxable payroll for the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds. The 

projected level of cost reflects the full cost of scheduled benefits under both present law and the 

proposal. Under the proposal, projected expenditures equal the full cost of scheduled benefits 

through 2050, but then are lower than the full scheduled benefit cost when trust fund reserves 

deplete in 2051.

For 2017, projected OASDI program cost is slightly lower under the proposal than under current 

law. Beginning in 2018, projected OASDI program cost is higher under the proposal than under 

current law. This difference in program cost generally increases over the projection period 

reaching 0.60 percent of present-law payroll for 2088. The projected annual income rate under 

the proposal is higher than under current law, with the difference being relatively stable at about 
Page 4 – The Honorable Ted Deutch

2.40 percent of payroll. The proposal improves the projected annual balance (non-interest 

income minus program cost) by 1.85 percent of payroll for 2045, with the improvement 

decreasing slightly to 1.81 percent of payroll for 2088.

Under the proposal, the projected OASDI annual balance is negative through 2018, positive for 

2019 through 2023, and negative thereafter. Annual deficits would increase to 2.05 percent of 

payroll for 2038, decline to 1.84 percent for 2050, and increase thereafter, reaching 3.09 percent 

for 2088. The projected annual deficit under current law is 4.90 percent of payroll for 2088.

It is also useful to consider the projected cost, expenditures, and income for the OASDI program 

expressed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Figure 3 below illustrates these 

projected levels under both current law and the proposal.

Specification of Provisions for the Proposal

Section 102. Use the CPI-E to calculate the COLA, beginning with the December 2017 

COLA.

Under current law, the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) applied to Social Security 

benefits is calculated using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical 

Workers (CPI-W). We estimate that using the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E), 
Page 5 – The Honorable Ted Deutch

instead of the CPI-W, beginning with the December 2017 COLA, would increase the COLA by 

0.2 percentage point per year on average.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.37 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2088) by 0.54 percent of payroll.

Section 201. Eliminate the OASDI taxable maximum starting in 2022, phased in 2016-

2021.

Under current law, payroll taxes totaling 12.4 percent apply to OASDI covered earnings in a year 

up to the contribution and benefit base, or taxable maximum. This taxable maximum is $117,000 

for 2014 and increases in the future in line with increases in the national average wage index 

(AWI). All covered earnings subject to the payroll tax are also potentially creditable toward 

computation of potential benefits as well as attainment of insured status.

Under this provision, all earnings above the current-law taxable maximum would be fully subject 

to the OASDI payroll tax of 12.4 percent in 2022 and later. The portion of the full 12.4 percent 

tax rate that would apply to covered earnings over this taxable maximum would increase 

linearly, starting at 1.8 percent (12.4 x 1/7) for 2016 and reaching 100 percent for 2022 and later.

Therefore, all covered earnings above and below the present-law taxable maximum would be 

taxed at the 12.4 percent payroll tax rate for 2022 and later.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone, without any resultant increase in benefits 

based on the additional taxed earnings, would decrease the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit

by 2.19 percent of taxable payroll and would decrease the annual deficit for the 75th projection 

year (2088) by 2.47 percent of payroll.

Section 202. Provide benefit credit on earnings taxed above the current-law taxable 

maximum.

Under this provision, the primary insurance amount (PIA) would be determined in two 

components. The first component would be computed exactly as under current law, based on the 

average indexed monthly earnings (AIME), restricted to earnings up to the level of the currentlaw OASDI taxable maximum ($117,000 for 2014) for each year. The second component of the 

PIA would be computed using the “AIME+”, which would be equal to the sum of the indexed

earnings in excess of the current-law taxable maximum for the 35 years with the highest indexed 

excess amounts divided by 420. For years 2016 through 2021, excess earnings would be 

multiplied by 1/7, 2/7, ..., 6/7, respectively. The second component of PIA would be equal to 3 

percent of AIME+ up to $11,083 (equal to ($250,000-$117,000)/12) and 0.25 percent for AIME+ 

above this level for beneficiaries newly eligible in 2016. For beneficiaries newly eligible for 

benefits after 2016, the “bend point” of $11,083 would be indexed by the national average wage 

index (AWI) in the same manner as for the bend points in the first component of the PIA.

We estimate that enactment of this provision (given enactment of Section 201) would increase 

the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit by 0.06 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the 
Page 6 – The Honorable Ted Deutch

annual deficit for the 75th projection year (2088) by 0.12 percent of payroll. Sections 201 and 

202 combined would decrease the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit by 2.14 percent of taxable 

payroll and would decrease the annual deficit for the 75th projection year (2088) by 2.35 percent 

of payroll.

Detailed Financial Results for the Provisions of the Proposal

Summary Results by Provision

Table A provides estimates of the effects on the OASDI long-range actuarial balance for each of 

the three provisions of the proposal separately and on a combined basis. The table also includes 

estimates of the effect of each provision on the annual balance (the difference between the

income rate and the cost rate, expressed as a percent of present-law taxable payroll) for the 75th

projection year, 2088. Interaction among individual provisions is reflected only in the total 

estimates for the combined provisions.

Benefit Illustrations

Tables B1 and B2 provide illustrative examples of the projected change in benefit levels under 

the three provisions that affect benefit levels for beneficiaries retiring at age 65 in future years at 

five selected earnings levels, with selected numbers of years of work. The “Maximum-AIME 

Steady Earner” is assumed to have earnings at ages 22 through 64 that equal the present-law 

taxable maximum level (equivalent to $117,000 for 2014). As a result, the provision to increase 

the taxable maximum does not affect benefit levels illustrated in these tables. Table B3 provides 

additional important information on characteristics of the illustrative retiring workers.

Table B1 compares the initial benefit levels assuming retirement at age 65 under the provisions 

of the proposal to both scheduled and payable present-law benefit level. All benefit amounts 

under the proposal are equal to or higher than those scheduled in current law. The final two 

columns of this table show the level of scheduled benefits under the proposal as a percentage of 

present-law scheduled and present-law payable benefits, respectively.

Table B2 compares the change in scheduled benefit levels at ages 65, 75, 85, and 95 under the 

proposal to scheduled benefits under present law, assuming retirement at age 65. Table B2 shows 

that projected scheduled benefits under the provisions of this proposal increase in relation to 

present-law scheduled benefits between ages 65 and 95, because of the change in computing the 

COLA.

The hypothetical workers represented in these tables reflect average career-earnings patterns of 

workers who started receiving retirement benefits under the Social Security program in recent 

years. The tables subdivide workers with very low and low career-average earnings levels by 

their numbers of years of non-zero earnings.

Table B3 provides information helpful in interpreting the benefit illustrations in tables B1 and 

B2. Percentages in Table B3 are based on tabulations from a 10-percent sample of newly-entitled 
Page 7 – The Honorable Ted Deutch

retired workers in 2007. Table B3 displays the percentages of these newly-entitled retired 

workers in 2007 that are closest to each of the illustrative examples and are:

1) “Dually Entitled”, meaning they received a higher spouse or widow(er) benefit based on 

the career earnings of their husband or wife,

2) “WEP” (Windfall Elimination Provision), meaning that they received a reduced benefit 

due to having a pension based on earnings that were not covered under the OASDI 

program (primarily certain government workers), and they had less than 30 years of 

substantial earnings that were taxable under the OASDI program,

3) “Foreign Born”, meaning that they entered the Social Security coverage area after birth 

(and generally after entering working ages), and

4) “All Others”, meaning they had none of the three characteristics listed above.

The extent to which retired-worker beneficiaries represented by each of the illustrative examples 

has any of the characteristics listed above (dually entitled, WEP, foreign born) is important

because such individuals are less dependent on the OASDI benefit that relates to their own 

career-average earnings level.

Detailed Tables Containing Annual and Summary Projections

Enclosed with this letter are tables 1, 1a, 1b, 1b.n, 1c, and 1d, which provide annual and 

summary projections for the proposal.

Trust Fund Operations

Table 1 provides projections of the financial operations of the OASDI program and shows that 

the combined OASDI Trust Funds would deplete in 2051 assuming enactment of this proposal.

The table shows the annual cost and income rates, annual balances, and trust fund ratios 

(reserves as percent of annual program cost) for OASDI, as well as the change from present law 

in these cost rates, income rates, and balances. Included at the bottom of this table are 

summarized rates for the 75-year (long-range) period.

The actuarial balance for the OASDI program over the 75-year projection period would be 

improved by 1.76 percent of taxable payroll, from an actuarial deficit of 2.88 percent of payroll 

under current law to a deficit of 1.12 percent of taxable payroll.

Program Transfers and Trust Fund Reserves

Column 4 of Table 1a provides a projection of the level of reserves for the theoretical combined 

OASI and DI Trust Funds. These trust fund reserve amounts are expressed in present value 

dollars discounted to January 1, 2014. The table indicates that the provisions include no new 

specified transfers of general revenue to the Trust Funds. For purpose of comparison, the OASDI 

trust fund reserves, expressed in present value dollars, are also shown for the current-law Social 

Security program both without and with the added proposal general fund transfers (zero in this 

case) in columns 6 and 7.
Page 8 – The Honorable Ted Deutch

Note that negative values in columns 4, 6, and 7 represent the “unfunded obligation” for the 

program through the year. The unfunded obligation is the present value of the shortfall of 

revenue needed to pay full scheduled benefits on a timely basis from the date of trust fund 

reserve depletion through the end of the indicated year. Gross Domestic Product (GDP),

expressed in present value dollars, is shown in column 5 for comparison with other values in the 

table.

Effect of the Social Security Provisions on the Federal Budget

Table 1b shows the projected effect, in present value discounted dollars, on the Federal budget 

(unified-budget and on-budget) cash flows and balances, assuming enactment of the three Social 

Security provisions of this proposal. Table 1b.n provides the estimated nominal dollar effect of 

enactment of the proposal on annual budget balances for years 2014 through 2024. All values in 

these tables represent the amount of change from the level projected under current law for the 

combined OASDI Trust Fund and reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits, 

not payable under the law after depletion of trust fund reserves, would still be paid using revenue 

provided from the General Fund of the Treasury obtained by additional borrowing from the 

public.

Column 1 of Table 1b shows the added proposal general fund transfers (zero in this case). 

Column 2 shows the net changes in OASDI cash flow from all provisions of the proposal.

We estimate the net effect of the proposal on unified budget cash flow (column 3) would be 

positive in years 2016 and later, reflecting the phasing out the taxable maximum starting in 2016.

Column 4 of Table 1b indicates that the projected effect of implementing the three provisions is a 

reduction of the Federal debt held by the public, reaching about $6.8 trillion in present value at 

the end of the 75-year projection period. Column 5 provides the projected effect of the proposal 

on the annual unified budget balances, including both the cash flow effect in column 3 and the 

additional interest on the accumulated debt in column 4. Columns 6 and 7 indicate that the 

provisions of this proposal would have no expected direct effects on the on-budget cash flow, or 

on the total Federal debt, in the future.

It is important to note that we base these estimates on the intermediate assumptions of the 2014 

Trustees Report and thus are not consistent with estimates made by the Office of Management 

and Budget or the Congressional Budget Office based on their assumptions. In particular, all 

present values are discounted using trust fund yield assumptions under the intermediate 

assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report.

Annual Trust Fund Operations as a Percent of GDP

Table 1c provides annual cost, annual expenditures (amount that would be payable), and annual

tax income for the OASDI program expressed as a percentage of GDP for both present law and 

assuming enactment of the three Social Security provisions of the proposal. Showing the annual 

trust fund cash flows as a percent of GDP provides an additional perspective on these trust fund 
Page 9 – The Honorable Ted Deutch

operations in relation to the total value of goods and services produced in the United States. The 

relationship between income and cost is similar when expressed as a percent of GDP to that 

when expressed as a percent of taxable payroll (Table 1).

Effects on Trust Fund Reserves and Unfunded Obligations

Table 1d provides estimates of the changes in trust fund reserves. Values in this table are 

expressed in present value dollars discounted to January 1, 2014.

For the 75-year (long-range) period as a whole, the present-law unfunded obligation of $10.6 

trillion is reduced to $3.7 trillion in present value. This change of $6.8 trillion results from: 

 An $8.4 trillion increase in revenue (column 2), from additional payroll tax, minus

 A $1.6 trillion increase in cost (column 3), from calculating the COLA using the CPIE rather than the CPI-W and from increased benefits based on additional taxed 

earnings.

We hope these estimates are helpful. Please let me know if we may provide further assistance.

Sincerely,

Stephen C. Goss

Chief Actuary

Enclosures
Table A—Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of H.R. 1811, the

Protecting and Preserving Social Security Act, introduced by Representative Deutch

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

in 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

Section 101. Compute the COLA using the Consumer Price 

Index for the Elderly (CPI-E) beginning with the December 

2017 COLA. We estimate this new computation will increase 

the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) by about 0.2 

percentage point, on average ................................................................................................ -0.37 ......................... -0.54

Section 201. Eliminate the OASDI taxable maximum for years 

2022 and later, and apply full 12.4 percent payroll tax rate to 

all earnings. Phase-in the application of the full tax rate for 

earnings above the current-law taxable maximum for years 

2016 through 2021................................................................................................ 219......................................... 2.47

Section 202. Under this provision, the primary insurance 

amount (PIA) would be determined in two components. The 

first component would be computed exactly as under current 

law, based on the average indexed monthly earnings (AIME), 

restricted to earnings at the level of the current-law OASDI 

taxable maximum ($117,000 for 2014) for each year. The 

second component of the PIA would be computed using the 

“AIME+”, which would be equal to the sum of the indexed 

earnings in excess of the current-law taxable maximum for the 

35 years with the highest indexed excess amounts divided by 

420. The second component of PIA would be equal to 3 

percent of AIME+ up to $11,083 (equal to ($250,000-

$117,000)/12) and 0.25 percent for AIME+ above this level for 

beneficiaries newly eligible in 2016. For beneficiaries newly 

eligible for benefits after 2016, the “bend point” of $11,083 

would be indexed by the national average wage index (AWI) 

in the same manner as for the bend points in the first 

component of the PIA................................................................................................ -0.06 ................................-.... 0.12

Total for all provisions, including interaction ................................................................ 1.76 .........1.81

1Under current law, the estimated long-range OASDI actuarial balance is -2.88 percent of taxable payroll.

2Under current law, the estimated 75th year annual balance is -4.90 percent of taxable payroll.

3The estimated change is negligible, that is, less than 0.005 percent of taxable payroll.

Notes: All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2014 OASDI Trustees Report. 

 Estimates of individual provisions appear on a stand-alone basis relative to current law, unless otherwise stated.

Social Security Administration

Office of the Chief Actuary

May 29, 2015
Year 

Attain Increased

Age 65 (Wage-Indexed (CPI-Indexed COLA4 Total Scheduled Payable

2014 Dollars) 2014 Dollars)

 

2014 705 705 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 629 806 0.6 0.6 101 101

2050 633 1,015 0.6 0.6 101 131

2080 632 1,397 0.6 0.6 101 -

 

2014 705 705 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 629 806 0.6 0.6 101 101

2050 633 1,015 0.6 0.6 101 131

2080 632 1,397 0.6 0.6 101 -

 

2014 705 705 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 629 806 0.6 0.6 101 101

2050 633 1,015 0.6 0.6 101 131

2080 632 1,397 0.6 0.6 101 -

2014 922 922 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 823 1,055 0.6 0.6 101 101

2050 828 1,328 0.6 0.6 101 131

2080 827 1,828 0.6 0.6 101 -

2014 922 922 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 823 1,055 0.6 0.6 101 101

2050 828 1,328 0.6 0.6 101 131

2080 827 1,828 0.6 0.6 101 -

2014 922 922 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 823 1,055 0.6 0.6 101 101

2050 828 1,328 0.6 0.6 101 131

2080 827 1,828 0.6 0.6 101 -

2014 1,520 1,520 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 1,356 1,739 0.6 0.6 101 101

2050 1,364 2,189 0.6 0.6 101 131

2080 1,364 3,013 0.6 0.6 101 -

2014 1,520 1,520 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 1,356 1,739 0.6 0.6 101 101

2050 1,364 2,189 0.6 0.6 101 131

2080 1,364 3,013 0.6 0.6 101 -

2014 2,015 2,015 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 1,797 2,304 0.6 0.6 101 101

2050 1,807 2,900 0.6 0.6 101 131

2080 1,807 3,992 0.6 0.6 101 -

2014 2,432 2,432 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 2,199 2,819 0.6 0.6 101 101

2050 2,210 3,545 0.6 0.6 101 131

2080 2,204 4,870 0.6 0.6 101 -

1 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2014.

2

Projected percent of new retired worker awards in 2050 closest to AIME levels and years of work.

3 After the trust fund reserves deplete under present law continuing taxes are expected to be enough to pay about three fourths of scheduled benefits.

4

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration May 29, 2015

 Medium-AIME ($46,787 for 20141) 30-Year Scaled Earner (2.7% of Retirees2)

 High-AIME ($74,859 for 20141) 44-Year Scaled Earner (21.5% of Retirees2)

 Maximum-AIME ($117,000 for 20141) 43-Year Steady Earner (6.0% of Retirees2)

Starting with the Dec 2017 COLA, compute the COLA using the CPI-E, producing 0.2% higher annual COLAs on average.

 Low-AIME ($21,054 for 20141) 20-Year Scaled Earner (2.4% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($46,787 for 20141) 44-Year Scaled Earner (29.2% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,697 for 20141) 30-Year Scaled Earner (8.5% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,697 for 20141) 20-Year Scaled Earner (4.8% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,697 for 20141) 14-Year Scaled Earner (4.6% of Retirees2)

(Percent change) (Percents)

 Low-AIME ($21,054 for 20141) 44-Year Scaled Earner (15.3% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($21,054 for 20141) 30-Year Scaled Earner (5.0% of Retirees2)

Monthly Benefits3 Percent of Present Law:

Table B1. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Beginning Benefit Receipt at age 65 

H.R. 1811, the Protecting and Preserving Social Security Act , introduced by Representative Deutch

Scheduled Benefit Level Percent Change at age 65

Present Law Scheduled Proposal Scheduled Benefit
Year 

Attain

Age 65 Age 65 Age 75 Age 85 Age 95

2014 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2050 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2080 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2014 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2050 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2080 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2014 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2050 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2080 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2014 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2050 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2080 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2014 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2050 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2080 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2014 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2050 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2080 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2014 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2050 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2080 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2014 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2050 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2080 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2014 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2050 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2080 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2014 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2050 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2080 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

1 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2014.

2

Projected percent of new retired worker awards in 2050 closest to AIME levels and years of work.

Note: Starting with the Dec 2017 COLA, compute the COLA using the CPI-E, producing 0.2% higher annual COLAs on average.

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration May 29, 2015

 High-AIME ($74,859 for 20141) 44-Year Scaled Earner (21.5% of Retirees2)

 Maximum-AIME ($117,000 for 20141) 43-Year Steady Earner (6.0% of Retirees2)

Table B2. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Beginning Benefit Receipt at age 65 

H.R. 1811, the Protecting and Preserving Social Security Act , introduced by Representative Deutch

Proposal Scheduled Benefit as Percent of Present Law Scheduled

(Percent)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,697 for 20141) 30-Year Scaled Earner (8.5% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,697 for 20141) 20-Year Scaled Earner (4.8% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,697 for 20141) 14-Year Scaled Earner (4.6% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($21,054 for 20141) 44-Year Scaled Earner (15.3% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($46,787 for 20141) 44-Year Scaled Earner (29.2% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($46,787 for 20141) 30-Year Scaled Earner (2.7% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($21,054 for 20141) 30-Year Scaled Earner (5.0% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($21,054 for 20141) 20-Year Scaled Earner (2.4% of Retirees2)
Category Dually Entitled2 WEP3

Foreign Born All Others4

Very-Low-AIME ($11,697 for 20141):

30-Year Scaled Earner (9.3% of Retirees) 47 6 11 40

20-Year Scaled Earner (5.8% of Retirees) 38 16 21 31

14-Year Scaled Earner (5.3% of Retirees) 22 21 45 20

Low-AIME ($21,054 for 20141):

44-Year Scaled Earner (13.1% of Retirees) 15 2 6 78

30-Year Scaled Earner (5.9% of Retirees) 16 9 18 59

20-Year Scaled Earner (3.1% of Retirees) 10 23 35 37

Medium-AIME ($46,787 for 20141):

44-Year Scaled Earner (23.0% of Retirees) 1 1 5 93

30-Year Scaled Earner (4.4% of Retirees) 1 8 26 67

High-AIME ($74,859 for 20141):

44-Year Scaled Earner (20.5% of Retirees) 0 0 6 93

Maximum-AIME ($117,000 for 20141):

Steady Earner (9.4% of Retirees) 0 0 7 93

1 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2014.

2

3 Covered by pension from government employment and are subject to the windfall elimination provision (WEP).

4 Neither foreign born, subject to WEP, or dually entitled.

May 29, 2015

Note 3: The sum of the percentages for each category (sum across rows) could be greater than 100 percent because some beneficiaries can be classified in more than one of the 

following groups: dually entitled, WEP, and foreign born. 

Under current law, entitled to an additional benefit based on someone else's account. The dually entitled percent is a minimum value. Some beneficiaries that are not 

currently dually entitled could become dually entitled in the future.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration

Table B3. Important Characteristics of Hypothetical Workers in 2007

Percent of Beneficiaries Within Each Category That Are:

Note 1:Table B3 displays the percentages of these newly-entitled retired workers in 2007 that are closest to each of the illustrative examples.

Note 2: Percents based on tabulations of a 10-percent sample of newly entitled retired-worker beneficiaries in 2007 (169,725 records). We can be 95 percent confident that each 

of the values shown above is within 1.4 percentage points of the value we would find using 100 percent of the retirees in 2007.
Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

H.R. 1811, the Protecting and Preserving Social Security Act , introduced by Representative Deutch

Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2014 13.95 12.67 -1.29 320 0.00 0.00 0.00

2015 13.97 12.92 -1.05 306 0.00 0.00 0.00

2016 13.97 13.24 -0.73 292 0.00 0.35 0.35

2017 13.97 13.62 -0.35 280 0.00 0.71 0.71

2018 14.04 13.99 -0.05 269 0.02 1.06 1.03

2019 14.20 14.34 0.14 261 0.05 1.39 1.34

2020 14.41 14.67 0.26 254 0.08 1.71 1.63

2021 14.60 15.00 0.40 250 0.10 2.02 1.92

2022 14.87 15.33 0.47 247 0.13 2.32 2.19

2023 15.16 15.35 0.19 244 0.15 2.32 2.17

2024 15.46 15.37 -0.08 240 0.18 2.32 2.14

2025 15.75 15.39 -0.36 235 0.21 2.32 2.12

2026 16.02 15.41 -0.61 230 0.23 2.33 2.09

2027 16.28 15.43 -0.85 224 0.26 2.33 2.07

2028 16.53 15.45 -1.08 218 0.28 2.33 2.05

2029 16.74 15.47 -1.28 212 0.30 2.33 2.03

2030 16.93 15.48 -1.45 205 0.33 2.33 2.01

2031 17.09 15.49 -1.60 198 0.35 2.33 1.99

2032 17.23 15.50 -1.73 189 0.37 2.34 1.97

2033 17.34 15.51 -1.83 181 0.39 2.34 1.95

2034 17.44 15.52 -1.92 172 0.40 2.34 1.94

2035 17.51 15.53 -1.98 163 0.42 2.34 1.92

2036 17.56 15.53 -2.02 153 0.43 2.34 1.91

2037 17.59 15.54 -2.05 144 0.45 2.34 1.90

2038 17.60 15.54 -2.05 134 0.46 2.35 1.89

2039 17.59 15.54 -2.04 124 0.47 2.35 1.88

2040 17.56 15.55 -2.02 115 0.48 2.35 1.87

2041 17.53 15.55 -1.99 105 0.48 2.35 1.87

2042 17.50 15.55 -1.95 95 0.49 2.35 1.86

2043 17.48 15.55 -1.93 86 0.50 2.35 1.86

2044 17.46 15.55 -1.91 76 0.50 2.35 1.85

2045 17.45 15.55 -1.89 66 0.51 2.36 1.85

2046 17.44 15.56 -1.88 57 0.51 2.36 1.85

2047 17.43 15.56 -1.87 47 0.51 2.36 1.85

2048 17.42 15.56 -1.86 37 0.51 2.36 1.84

2049 17.41 15.56 -1.85 27 0.52 2.36 1.84

2050 17.41 15.56 -1.84 17 0.52 2.36 1.84

2051 17.41 15.57 -1.85 7 0.52 2.36 1.84

2052 17.43 15.57 -1.86 ---- 0.52 2.36 1.84

2053 17.46 15.57 -1.89 ---- 0.52 2.37 1.84

2054 17.49 15.58 -1.92 ---- 0.52 2.37 1.84

2055 17.54 15.58 -1.96 ---- 0.52 2.37 1.84

2056 17.59 15.59 -2.00 ---- 0.53 2.37 1.84

2057 17.64 15.59 -2.05 ---- 0.53 2.37 1.84

2058 17.69 15.60 -2.09 ---- 0.53 2.37 1.84

2059 17.74 15.60 -2.14 ---- 0.53 2.37 1.84

2060 17.79 15.61 -2.19 ---- 0.53 2.37 1.84

2061 17.84 15.61 -2.23 ---- 0.54 2.38 1.84

2062 17.89 15.61 -2.28 ---- 0.54 2.38 1.84

2063 17.94 15.62 -2.32 ---- 0.54 2.38 1.84

2064 17.99 15.62 -2.37 ---- 0.54 2.38 1.84

2065 18.04 15.63 -2.42 ---- 0.55 2.38 1.83

2066 18.10 15.63 -2.46 ---- 0.55 2.38 1.83

2067 18.15 15.64 -2.51 ---- 0.55 2.39 1.83

2068 18.20 15.64 -2.56 ---- 0.56 2.39 1.83

2069 18.25 15.65 -2.61 ---- 0.56 2.39 1.83

2070 18.30 15.65 -2.65 ---- 0.56 2.39 1.83

2071 18.35 15.66 -2.69 ---- 0.57 2.39 1.82

2072 18.39 15.66 -2.73 ---- 0.57 2.39 1.82

2073 18.42 15.66 -2.75 ---- 0.57 2.39 1.82

2074 18.44 15.67 -2.78 ---- 0.58 2.40 1.82

2075 18.46 15.67 -2.79 ---- 0.58 2.40 1.82

2076 18.47 15.67 -2.80 ---- 0.58 2.40 1.82

2077 18.48 15.67 -2.80 ---- 0.58 2.40 1.82

2078 18.48 15.67 -2.80 ---- 0.58 2.40 1.82

2079 18.48 15.68 -2.81 ---- 0.59 2.40 1.82

2080 18.49 15.68 -2.81 ---- 0.59 2.40 1.82

2081 18.50 15.68 -2.82 ---- 0.59 2.41 1.82

2082 18.53 15.68 -2.84 ---- 0.59 2.41 1.82

2083 18.56 15.68 -2.87 ---- 0.59 2.41 1.82

2084 18.59 15.69 -2.91 ---- 0.59 2.41 1.82

2085 18.64 15.69 -2.95 ---- 0.60 2.41 1.82

2086 18.69 15.70 -2.99 ---- 0.60 2.41 1.82

2087 18.74 15.70 -3.04 ---- 0.60 2.41 1.82

2088 18.79 15.70 -3.09 ---- 0.60 2.42 1.81

2089 18.85 15.71 -3.14 ---- 0.60 2.42 1.81

Summarized Rates: OASDI Summarized Rates: OASDI

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

2014 - 2088 17.18% 16.06% -1.12% 2051 0.41% 2.17% 1.76%

Office of the Chief Actuary

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration

1

 Under present law the year of combined Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2033. May 29, 2015

Year of reserve 

depletion1

Proposal Change from Present Law

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll
Table 1a - General Fund Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Reserves, and Theoretical OASDI Reserves

H.R. 1811, the Protecting and Preserving Social Security Act , introduced by Representative Deutch

Percentage

of Payroll

Annual

Amounts

Accumulated as of 

End of Year

Gross Domestic 

Product

Without General

Fund Transfers

With Plan General

Fund Transfers

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,686.5 17,248.0 2,686.5 2,686.5

2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,622.1 17,479.5 2,622.1 2,622.1

2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,576.4 17,764.0 2,554.4 2,554.4

2017 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,554.1 18,073.7 2,485.9 2,485.9

2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,551.3 18,375.4 2,414.4 2,414.4

2019 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,561.4 18,640.8 2,333.7 2,333.7

2020 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,580.2 18,857.5 2,240.3 2,240.3

2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,608.5 19,025.1 2,135.5 2,135.5

2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,641.8 19,140.3 2,015.5 2,015.5

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,656.3 19,227.7 1,877.7 1,877.7

2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,651.3 19,280.8 1,722.0 1,722.0

2025 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,627.3 19,278.2 1,549.3 1,549.3

2026 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,585.8 19,215.2 1,361.3 1,361.3

2027 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,527.9 19,086.8 1,159.7 1,159.7

2028 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,455.4 18,893.0 946.6 946.6

2029 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,370.3 18,668.8 724.2 724.2

2030 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,274.7 18,445.7 494.4 494.4

2031 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,170.3 18,223.6 258.8 258.8

2032 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,059.1 18,005.7 19.3 19.3

2033 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,943.1 17,795.3 -222.4 -222.4

2034 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,822.8 17,587.9 -465.8 -465.8

2035 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,700.0 17,387.7 -709.2 -709.2

2036 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,576.0 17,192.4 -951.7 -951.7

2037 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,451.9 17,003.0 -1,192.0 -1,192.0

2038 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,329.0 16,820.9 -1,429.2 -1,429.2

2039 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,208.3 16,643.5 -1,662.3 -1,662.3

2040 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,090.5 16,469.7 -1,890.8 -1,890.8

2041 0.0 0.0 0.0 975.7 16,298.4 -2,114.6 -2,114.6

2042 0.0 0.0 0.0 864.1 16,127.3 -2,333.7 -2,333.7

2043 0.0 0.0 0.0 755.4 15,957.2 -2,548.3 -2,548.3

2044 0.0 0.0 0.0 649.1 15,789.1 -2,759.1 -2,759.1

2045 0.0 0.0 0.0 544.8 15,619.5 -2,966.4 -2,966.4

2046 0.0 0.0 0.0 442.5 15,450.2 -3,170.4 -3,170.4

2047 0.0 0.0 0.0 342.0 15,281.2 -3,371.2 -3,371.2

2048 0.0 0.0 0.0 243.5 15,112.3 -3,568.7 -3,568.7

2049 0.0 0.0 0.0 146.7 14,943.6 -3,763.2 -3,763.2

2050 0.0 0.0 0.0 51.4 14,774.2 -3,955.0 -3,955.0

2051 0.0 0.0 0.0 -42.9 14,605.5 -4,144.6 -4,144.6

2052 0.0 0.0 0.0 -136.7 14,436.3 -4,332.4 -4,332.4

2053 0.0 0.0 0.0 -230.4 14,266.8 -4,518.9 -4,518.9

2054 0.0 0.0 0.0 -324.4 14,097.9 -4,704.6 -4,704.6

2055 0.0 0.0 0.0 -419.1 13,929.6 -4,889.6 -4,889.6

2056 0.0 0.0 0.0 -514.6 13,761.9 -5,074.2 -5,074.2

2057 0.0 0.0 0.0 -611.1 13,595.7 -5,258.5 -5,258.5

2058 0.0 0.0 0.0 -708.5 13,431.2 -5,442.5 -5,442.5

2059 0.0 0.0 0.0 -806.6 13,268.8 -5,626.1 -5,626.1

2060 0.0 0.0 0.0 -905.6 13,108.0 -5,809.3 -5,809.3

2061 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,005.3 12,949.7 -5,992.1 -5,992.1

2062 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,105.6 12,794.2 -6,174.3 -6,174.3

2063 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,206.7 12,640.5 -6,356.0 -6,356.0

2064 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,308.3 12,489.1 -6,537.2 -6,537.2

2065 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,410.5 12,339.8 -6,717.8 -6,717.8

2066 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,513.5 12,192.7 -6,898.0 -6,898.0

2067 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,617.0 12,048.2 -7,077.8 -7,077.8

2068 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,721.1 11,905.9 -7,257.0 -7,257.0

2069 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,825.7 11,766.0 -7,435.7 -7,435.7

2070 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,930.8 11,627.9 -7,613.7 -7,613.7

2071 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,036.1 11,491.2 -7,791.0 -7,791.0

2072 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,141.4 11,356.6 -7,967.3 -7,967.3

2073 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,246.3 11,223.5 -8,142.2 -8,142.2

2074 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,350.6 11,091.9 -8,315.6 -8,315.6

2075 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,454.2 10,961.8 -8,487.3 -8,487.3

2076 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,556.8 10,833.2 -8,657.0 -8,657.0

2077 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,658.1 10,705.9 -8,824.7 -8,824.7

2078 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,758.1 10,579.6 -8,990.2 -8,990.2

2079 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,856.9 10,454.4 -9,153.5 -9,153.5

2080 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,954.7 10,329.9 -9,315.0 -9,315.0

2081 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,051.6 10,206.0 -9,474.8 -9,474.8

2082 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,147.9 10,082.9 -9,633.2 -9,633.2

2083 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,243.9 9,960.4 -9,790.5 -9,790.5

2084 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,339.7 9,838.6 -9,946.7 -9,946.7

2085 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,435.6 9,717.5 -10,102.3 -10,102.3

2086 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,531.6 9,597.6 -10,257.1 -10,257.1

2087 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,627.9 9,478.5 -10,411.4 -10,411.4

2088 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,724.4 9,360.5 -10,565.1 -10,565.1

2089 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,821.2 9,243.6 -10,718.3 -10,718.3

Total 2014-2088 0.0

Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report.

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%.

Office of the Chief Actuary

1

 Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption Social Security Administration

 that the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury. May 29, 2015

Calendar

Year

Proposal General Fund Transfers Present Value in Billions as of 1-1-2014

Proposal

Total OASDI

Trust Fund

Reserves

 at End of Year

Theoretical Social Security1

with Borrowing Authority

Present Value in Billions as of 1-1- 2014 Net OASDI Trust Fund Reserves at End of Year
Table 1b - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1

 (Present Value Dollars)

H.R. 1811, the Protecting and Preserving Social Security Act , introduced by Representative Deutch

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End Of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2016 0.0 22.1 22.1 -22.1 22.1 0.0 0.0

2017 0.0 46.1 46.1 -68.2 46.8 0.0 0.0

2018 0.0 68.7 68.7 -136.9 71.1 0.0 0.0

2019 0.0 90.8 90.8 -227.7 95.6 0.0 0.0

2020 0.0 112.2 112.2 -339.9 120.5 0.0 0.0

2021 0.0 133.1 133.1 -473.0 145.7 0.0 0.0

2022 0.0 153.3 153.3 -626.3 171.2 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 152.3 152.3 -778.6 176.5 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 150.7 150.7 -929.3 183.1 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 148.8 148.8 -1,078.0 190.1 0.0 0.0

2026 0.0 146.4 146.4 -1,224.5 197.6 0.0 0.0

2027 0.0 143.7 143.7 -1,368.2 205.6 0.0 0.0

2028 0.0 140.6 140.6 -1,508.8 214.1 0.0 0.0

2029 0.0 137.3 137.3 -1,646.1 218.4 0.0 0.0

2030 0.0 134.2 134.2 -1,780.3 222.7 0.0 0.0

2031 0.0 131.2 131.2 -1,911.5 226.8 0.0 0.0

2032 0.0 128.3 128.3 -2,039.8 231.0 0.0 0.0

2033 0.0 125.7 125.7 -2,165.5 235.3 0.0 0.0

2034 0.0 123.1 123.1 -2,288.6 239.4 0.0 0.0

2035 0.0 120.7 120.7 -2,409.2 243.6 0.0 0.0

2036 0.0 118.4 118.4 -2,527.6 247.9 0.0 0.0

2037 0.0 116.3 116.3 -2,643.9 252.1 0.0 0.0

2038 0.0 114.3 114.3 -2,758.2 256.3 0.0 0.0

2039 0.0 112.4 112.4 -2,870.6 260.6 0.0 0.0

2040 0.0 110.7 110.7 -2,981.3 264.9 0.0 0.0

2041 0.0 109.0 109.0 -3,090.3 269.2 0.0 0.0

2042 0.0 107.5 107.5 -3,197.8 273.5 0.0 0.0

2043 0.0 105.9 105.9 -3,303.7 277.8 0.0 0.0

2044 0.0 104.5 104.5 -3,408.2 282.0 0.0 0.0

2045 0.0 103.0 103.0 -3,511.2 286.2 0.0 0.0

2046 0.0 101.7 101.7 -3,612.9 290.3 0.0 0.0

2047 0.0 100.3 100.3 -3,713.2 294.4 0.0 0.0

2048 0.0 99.0 99.0 -3,812.2 298.5 0.0 0.0

2049 0.0 97.8 97.8 -3,909.9 302.6 0.0 0.0

2050 0.0 96.5 96.5 -4,006.4 306.6 0.0 0.0

2051 0.0 95.3 95.3 -4,101.7 310.5 0.0 0.0

2052 0.0 94.0 94.0 -4,195.8 314.4 0.0 0.0

2053 0.0 92.8 92.8 -4,288.6 318.3 0.0 0.0

2054 0.0 91.6 91.6 -4,380.1 322.0 0.0 0.0

2055 0.0 90.3 90.3 -4,470.5 325.7 0.0 0.0

2056 0.0 89.1 89.1 -4,559.6 329.3 0.0 0.0

2057 0.0 87.9 87.9 -4,647.4 332.9 0.0 0.0

2058 0.0 86.6 86.6 -4,734.1 336.4 0.0 0.0

2059 0.0 85.4 85.4 -4,819.5 339.8 0.0 0.0

2060 0.0 84.2 84.2 -4,903.8 343.2 0.0 0.0

2061 0.0 83.0 83.0 -4,986.8 346.5 0.0 0.0

2062 0.0 81.9 81.9 -5,068.7 349.8 0.0 0.0

2063 0.0 80.7 80.7 -5,149.4 353.0 0.0 0.0

2064 0.0 79.5 79.5 -5,228.9 356.2 0.0 0.0

2065 0.0 78.4 78.4 -5,307.3 359.4 0.0 0.0

2066 0.0 77.3 77.3 -5,384.6 362.5 0.0 0.0

2067 0.0 76.2 76.2 -5,460.8 365.5 0.0 0.0

2068 0.0 75.1 75.1 -5,535.9 368.5 0.0 0.0

2069 0.0 74.0 74.0 -5,609.9 371.5 0.0 0.0

2070 0.0 73.0 73.0 -5,682.9 374.4 0.0 0.0

2071 0.0 72.0 72.0 -5,754.9 377.3 0.0 0.0

2072 0.0 71.0 71.0 -5,825.9 380.2 0.0 0.0

2073 0.0 70.0 70.0 -5,895.9 383.1 0.0 0.0

2074 0.0 69.1 69.1 -5,965.0 385.9 0.0 0.0

2075 0.0 68.1 68.1 -6,033.1 388.6 0.0 0.0

2076 0.0 67.2 67.2 -6,100.3 391.4 0.0 0.0

2077 0.0 66.3 66.3 -6,166.6 394.1 0.0 0.0

2078 0.0 65.4 65.4 -6,232.0 396.8 0.0 0.0

2079 0.0 64.6 64.6 -6,296.6 399.4 0.0 0.0

2080 0.0 63.7 63.7 -6,360.3 402.1 0.0 0.0

2081 0.0 62.9 62.9 -6,423.2 404.7 0.0 0.0

2082 0.0 62.1 62.1 -6,485.3 407.2 0.0 0.0

2083 0.0 61.3 61.3 -6,546.6 409.7 0.0 0.0

2084 0.0 60.4 60.4 -6,607.0 412.2 0.0 0.0

2085 0.0 59.6 59.6 -6,666.6 414.6 0.0 0.0

2086 0.0 58.8 58.8 -6,725.5 417.0 0.0 0.0

2087 0.0 58.0 58.0 -6,783.5 419.4 0.0 0.0

2088 0.0 57.2 57.2 -6,840.7 421.7 0.0 0.0

Total 2014-2088 0.0 6,840.7 6,840.7

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report.

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%.

Note: Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would Office of the Chief Actuary

 nonetheless be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. Social Security Administration

1

 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table. May 29, 2015

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2014
Table 1b.n - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1

 (Nominal Dollars)

H.R. 1811, the Protecting and Preserving Social Security Act , introduced by Representative Deutch

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2016 0.0 24.1 24.1 -24.5 24.5 0.0 0.0

2017 0.0 52.0 52.0 -78.4 53.9 0.0 0.0

2018 0.0 80.2 80.2 -163.2 84.8 0.0 0.0

2019 0.0 109.9 109.9 -281.7 118.5 0.0 0.0

2020 0.0 140.9 140.9 -437.0 155.3 0.0 0.0

2021 0.0 173.5 173.5 -632.2 195.2 0.0 0.0

2022 0.0 207.6 207.6 -871.0 238.8 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 214.3 214.3 -1,127.9 256.9 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 221.0 221.0 -1,406.1 278.2 0.0 0.0

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report.

Note: Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would Office of the Chief Actuary

 nonetheless be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. Social Security Administration

1

 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table. May 29, 2015

Billions of Nominal Dollars
Table 1c - Present Law and Proposal Cost, Expenditures, and Income: As Percent of Gross Domestic Product

H.R. 1811, the Protecting and Preserving Social Security Act , introduced by Representative Deutch

Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

2014 4.92 4.92 4.46 4.92 4.92 4.46

2015 4.94 4.94 4.57 4.94 4.94 4.57

2016 4.97 4.97 4.59 4.97 4.97 4.71

2017 5.01 5.01 4.63 5.01 5.01 4.88

2018 5.06 5.06 4.67 5.07 5.07 5.06

2019 5.13 5.13 4.70 5.15 5.15 5.20

2020 5.21 5.21 4.71 5.24 5.24 5.34

2021 5.29 5.29 4.73 5.33 5.33 5.47

2022 5.38 5.38 4.75 5.43 5.43 5.60

2023 5.48 5.48 4.76 5.54 5.54 5.61

2024 5.57 5.57 4.76 5.64 5.64 5.61

2025 5.66 5.66 4.76 5.74 5.74 5.61

2026 5.74 5.74 4.76 5.83 5.83 5.61

2027 5.82 5.82 4.76 5.92 5.92 5.61

2028 5.89 5.89 4.76 6.00 6.00 5.61

2029 5.96 5.96 4.76 6.07 6.07 5.61

2030 6.01 6.01 4.76 6.13 6.13 5.60

2031 6.06 6.06 4.76 6.18 6.18 5.60

2032 6.09 6.09 4.76 6.23 6.23 5.60

2033 6.12 4.86 4.76 6.26 6.26 5.60

2034 6.14 4.75 4.75 6.29 6.29 5.60

2035 6.16 4.75 4.75 6.31 6.31 5.59

2036 6.16 4.75 4.75 6.32 6.32 5.59

2037 6.16 4.74 4.74 6.32 6.32 5.59

2038 6.16 4.74 4.74 6.32 6.32 5.58

2039 6.14 4.74 4.74 6.31 6.31 5.58

2040 6.12 4.73 4.73 6.29 6.29 5.57

2041 6.10 4.72 4.72 6.28 6.28 5.57

2042 6.08 4.72 4.72 6.26 6.26 5.56

2043 6.06 4.71 4.71 6.24 6.24 5.55

2044 6.05 4.71 4.71 6.23 6.23 5.55

2045 6.03 4.70 4.70 6.21 6.21 5.54

2046 6.02 4.69 4.69 6.20 6.20 5.53

2047 6.01 4.69 4.69 6.19 6.19 5.52

2048 5.99 4.68 4.68 6.18 6.18 5.52

2049 5.98 4.67 4.67 6.16 6.16 5.51

2050 5.97 4.67 4.67 6.15 6.15 5.50

2051 5.97 4.66 4.66 6.15 5.94 5.50

2052 5.96 4.66 4.66 6.15 5.49 5.49

2053 5.96 4.65 4.65 6.15 5.48 5.48

2054 5.97 4.64 4.64 6.15 5.48 5.48

2055 5.97 4.64 4.64 6.16 5.47 5.47

2056 5.98 4.63 4.63 6.16 5.46 5.46

2057 5.99 4.63 4.63 6.17 5.46 5.46

2058 6.00 4.62 4.62 6.18 5.45 5.45

2059 6.00 4.62 4.62 6.19 5.44 5.44

2060 6.01 4.61 4.61 6.20 5.44 5.44

2061 6.02 4.60 4.60 6.21 5.43 5.43

2062 6.03 4.60 4.60 6.22 5.42 5.42

2063 6.04 4.59 4.59 6.22 5.42 5.42

2064 6.04 4.59 4.59 6.23 5.41 5.41

2065 6.05 4.58 4.58 6.24 5.40 5.40

2066 6.06 4.57 4.57 6.25 5.40 5.40

2067 6.07 4.57 4.57 6.26 5.39 5.39

2068 6.07 4.56 4.56 6.27 5.38 5.38

2069 6.08 4.56 4.56 6.27 5.38 5.38

2070 6.09 4.55 4.55 6.28 5.37 5.37

2071 6.10 4.55 4.55 6.29 5.37 5.37

2072 6.10 4.54 4.54 6.29 5.36 5.36

2073 6.10 4.54 4.54 6.30 5.35 5.35

2074 6.10 4.53 4.53 6.30 5.35 5.35

2075 6.10 4.52 4.52 6.29 5.34 5.34

2076 6.09 4.52 4.52 6.29 5.34 5.34

2077 6.09 4.51 4.51 6.28 5.33 5.33

2078 6.08 4.51 4.51 6.28 5.32 5.32

2079 6.07 4.50 4.50 6.27 5.32 5.32

2080 6.07 4.50 4.50 6.27 5.31 5.31

2081 6.07 4.49 4.49 6.27 5.31 5.31

2082 6.07 4.49 4.49 6.27 5.30 5.30

2083 6.07 4.49 4.49 6.27 5.30 5.30

2084 6.08 4.48 4.48 6.28 5.30 5.30

2085 6.08 4.48 4.48 6.29 5.29 5.29

2086 6.09 4.48 4.48 6.30 5.29 5.29

2087 6.11 4.47 4.47 6.31 5.29 5.29

2088 6.12 4.47 4.47 6.32 5.28 5.28

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

May 29, 2015

Present Law OASDI Proposal OASDI

Calendar

Year
Table 1d - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Reserves / Unfunded Obligation

H.R. 1811, the Protecting and Preserving Social Security Act , introduced by Representative Deutch

Year

Present Law OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Total Change

Through

End of Year

Proposal OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) = cumulative sum(4) (6) = (1)+(5)

2014 2,686.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,686.5

2015 2,622.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,622.1

2016 2,554.4 22.1 0.0 22.1 22.1 2,576.4

2017 2,485.9 46.0 -0.1 46.1 68.2 2,554.1

2018 2,414.4 70.4 1.7 68.7 136.9 2,551.3

2019 2,333.7 94.2 3.4 90.8 227.7 2,561.4

2020 2,240.3 117.5 5.3 112.2 339.9 2,580.2

2021 2,135.5 140.2 7.1 133.1 473.0 2,608.5

2022 2,015.5 162.3 9.0 153.3 626.3 2,641.8

2023 1,877.7 163.1 10.9 152.3 778.6 2,656.3

2024 1,722.0 163.4 12.7 150.7 929.3 2,651.3

2025 1,549.3 163.3 14.6 148.8 1,078.0 2,627.3

2026 1,361.3 162.7 16.3 146.4 1,224.5 2,585.8

2027 1,159.7 161.6 17.9 143.7 1,368.2 2,527.9

2028 946.6 159.9 19.3 140.6 1,508.8 2,455.4

2029 724.2 158.0 20.6 137.3 1,646.1 2,370.3

2030 494.4 156.0 21.8 134.2 1,780.3 2,274.7

2031 258.8 154.1 22.9 131.2 1,911.5 2,170.3

2032 19.3 152.2 23.9 128.3 2,039.8 2,059.1

2033 -222.4 150.4 24.7 125.7 2,165.5 1,943.1

2034 -465.8 148.6 25.5 123.1 2,288.6 1,822.8

2035 -709.2 146.9 26.2 120.7 2,409.2 1,700.0

2036 -951.7 145.2 26.8 118.4 2,527.6 1,576.0

2037 -1,192.0 143.5 27.3 116.3 2,643.9 1,451.9

2038 -1,429.2 141.9 27.6 114.3 2,758.2 1,329.0

2039 -1,662.3 140.4 27.9 112.4 2,870.6 1,208.3

2040 -1,890.8 138.8 28.2 110.7 2,981.3 1,090.5

2041 -2,114.6 137.3 28.3 109.0 3,090.3 975.7

2042 -2,333.7 135.8 28.3 107.5 3,197.8 864.1

2043 -2,548.3 134.3 28.3 105.9 3,303.7 755.4

2044 -2,759.1 132.7 28.3 104.5 3,408.2 649.1

2045 -2,966.4 131.2 28.2 103.0 3,511.2 544.8

2046 -3,170.4 129.7 28.0 101.7 3,612.9 442.5

2047 -3,371.2 128.1 27.8 100.3 3,713.2 342.0

2048 -3,568.7 126.6 27.6 99.0 3,812.2 243.5

2049 -3,763.2 125.1 27.3 97.8 3,909.9 146.7

2050 -3,955.0 123.5 27.0 96.5 4,006.4 51.4

2051 -4,144.6 122.0 26.7 95.3 4,101.7 -42.9

2052 -4,332.4 120.5 26.5 94.0 4,195.8 -136.7

2053 -4,518.9 119.0 26.2 92.8 4,288.6 -230.4

2054 -4,704.6 117.5 25.9 91.6 4,380.1 -324.4

2055 -4,889.6 115.9 25.6 90.3 4,470.5 -419.1

2056 -5,074.2 114.4 25.3 89.1 4,559.6 -514.6

2057 -5,258.5 112.9 25.1 87.9 4,647.4 -611.1

2058 -5,442.5 111.5 24.8 86.6 4,734.1 -708.5

2059 -5,626.1 110.0 24.6 85.4 4,819.5 -806.6

2060 -5,809.3 108.6 24.4 84.2 4,903.8 -905.6

2061 -5,992.1 107.2 24.2 83.0 4,986.8 -1,005.3

2062 -6,174.3 105.8 24.0 81.9 5,068.7 -1,105.6

2063 -6,356.0 104.5 23.8 80.7 5,149.4 -1,206.7

2064 -6,537.2 103.1 23.6 79.5 5,228.9 -1,308.3

2065 -6,717.8 101.8 23.4 78.4 5,307.3 -1,410.5

2066 -6,898.0 100.5 23.2 77.3 5,384.6 -1,513.5

2067 -7,077.8 99.2 23.0 76.2 5,460.8 -1,617.0

2068 -7,257.0 98.0 22.9 75.1 5,535.9 -1,721.1

2069 -7,435.7 96.7 22.7 74.0 5,609.9 -1,825.7

2070 -7,613.7 95.5 22.5 73.0 5,682.9 -1,930.8

2071 -7,791.0 94.3 22.3 72.0 5,754.9 -2,036.1

2072 -7,967.3 93.1 22.2 71.0 5,825.9 -2,141.4

2073 -8,142.2 92.0 22.0 70.0 5,895.9 -2,246.3

2074 -8,315.6 90.8 21.8 69.1 5,965.0 -2,350.6

2075 -8,487.3 89.7 21.6 68.1 6,033.1 -2,454.2

2076 -8,657.0 88.6 21.4 67.2 6,100.3 -2,556.8

2077 -8,824.7 87.5 21.2 66.3 6,166.6 -2,658.1

2078 -8,990.2 86.4 21.0 65.4 6,232.0 -2,758.1

2079 -9,153.5 85.4 20.8 64.6 6,296.6 -2,856.9

2080 -9,315.0 84.3 20.6 63.7 6,360.3 -2,954.7

2081 -9,474.8 83.3 20.3 62.9 6,423.2 -3,051.6

2082 -9,633.2 82.2 20.1 62.1 6,485.3 -3,147.9

2083 -9,790.5 81.2 19.9 61.3 6,546.6 -3,243.9

2084 -9,946.7 80.1 19.7 60.4 6,607.0 -3,339.7

2085 -10,102.3 79.1 19.5 59.6 6,666.6 -3,435.6

2086 -10,257.1 78.1 19.3 58.8 6,725.5 -3,531.6

2087 -10,411.4 77.1 19.1 58.0 6,783.5 -3,627.9

2088 -10,565.1 76.1 18.9 57.2 6,840.7 -3,724.4

Total 2014-2088 8401.3 1560.6 6840.7

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%. May 29, 2015

(Billions of Dollars, Present Value on 1-1-2014)