SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE, MD 21235-0001

SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

February 16, 2017

The Honorable Bernie Sanders

United States Senate

Washington, D.C. 20510

The Honorable Peter DeFazio

United States House of Representatives

Washington, D.C. 20515

Dear Senator Sanders and Representative DeFazio:

I am writing in response to your request for estimates of the financial effects on Social Security 

of the Social Security Expansion Act, which you introduced today. The estimates provided here 

reflect the intermediate assumptions of the 2016 Trustees Report. These Bills (hereafter referred 

to as the proposal) include five provisions with direct effects on the Social Security Trust Funds. 

We have enjoyed working closely with Jeff Cruz and Rina Wulfing of your staffs in developing 

this proposal to meet your goals.

The enclosed tables provide estimates of the effects of the five provisions on the cost, income, 

and combined trust fund reserves for the Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI)

program, as well as estimated effects on retired worker benefit levels for selected hypothetical 

workers. In addition, tables 1b and 1b.n provide estimates of the Federal budget implications of 

the five provisions. Assuming enactment of the proposal, we estimate the funding for the 

combined OASI and DI Trust Funds would be sufficient to extend the projected year of reserve 

depletion from 2034 to 2078, under the intermediate assumptions of the 2016 Trustees Report.

The estimates and analysis provided here reflect the combined effort of many in the Office of the 

Chief Actuary, but most particularly Karen Glenn, Christopher Chaplain, Daniel Nickerson, 

Jason Schultz, Kyle Burkhalter, Anna Kirjusina, Katie Sutton, and Tiffany Bosley.

The proposal includes five basic provisions with direct effects on the OASDI program. The 

following list identifies each provision with the corresponding section number in the proposal:

Section 2. Increase the first PIA bend point above the current law level for workers who 

become newly eligible for retirement or disability benefits or die after 2022. Phase in an 

ultimate 15-percent increase in the first bend point by raising it 1 percent above the current 

level for workers who becoming newly eligible or dying in 2023, 2 percent for workers 
Page 2 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders and the Honorable Peter DeFazio

becoming newly eligible or dying in 2024, and so on, until it reaches 15 percent for workers 

becoming newly eligible or dying in 2037 and later.

Section 3. Use the increase in the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E) rather than 

the increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers 

(CPI-W) to calculate the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), effective for December 2019 and 

later COLAs. We assume this change would increase the COLA by an average of 0.2 

percentage point per year.

Section 4. Increase the special minimum PIA for workers who become newly eligible for 

retirement or disability benefits or die in 2018 or later. For workers becoming newly eligible 

or dying in 2018, the minimum initial PIA for workers with 30 or more years of coverage 

(YOCs) is 125 percent of the annual poverty guideline for a single individual, as published 

by the Department of Health and Human Services for 2017, divided by 12. For workers 

becoming newly eligible or dying after 2018, the minimum initial PIA increases by the 

growth in the national average wage index (AWI).

Sections 5 and 6. Apply the combined OASDI payroll tax rate on earnings above $250,000, 

effective for 2018 and later. Tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds 

$250,000. Do not credit the additional taxed earnings for benefit purposes.

Section 7. Apply a separate 6.2-percent tax on investment income, as defined in the 

Affordable Care Act (ACA), with unindexed thresholds as in the ACA, effective for 2018 and 

later. The ACA thresholds are $200,000 for a single filer and $250,000 for a married couple 

filing jointly. Under this provision, there is no limit on the amount taxed.

The balance of this letter provides a summary of the effects of the five provisions on the actuarial 

status of the OASDI program, our understanding of the specifications and intent of each 

provision, and descriptions of our detailed financial estimates for trust fund operations, benefit 

levels, and implications for the Federal budget.

Summary of Effects of the Proposal on OASDI Actuarial Status

Figure 1 below illustrates the estimated change in the combined Old-Age and Survivors 

Insurance (OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund reserves, expressed as a percent of 

annual program cost, assuming enactment of the five provisions of this proposal. Assuming 

enactment of the proposal, we estimate the year of depletion of the combined OASI and DI Trust 

Fund reserves would be extended from 2034 under current law to 2078, under the intermediate 

assumptions of the 2016 Trustees Report.
Page 3 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders and the Honorable Peter DeFazio

Note: Trust Fund Ratio for a given year is the ratio of reserves in the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds at the 

beginning of the year to the cost of the program for the year.

Under current law, 79 percent of scheduled benefits are projected to be payable in 2034 after 

depletion of the combined trust fund reserves, with the percentage payable declining to 75

percent for 2078 and to 74 percent for 2090. Under the proposal, 89 percent of scheduled 

benefits are projected to be payable in 2078 after depletion of the combined trust fund reserves, 

with this percentage declining to 88 percent for 2090. Enactment of the five provisions of this 

proposal would reduce the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit of 2.66 percent of taxable payroll 

under current law to 0.41 percent of payroll for the long-range period.

Figure 2 illustrates annual projected levels of cost, expenditures, and non-interest income as a 

percent of the present-law taxable payroll. The projected level of cost reflects the full cost of 

scheduled benefits under both present law and the proposal. Under the proposal, projected 

expenditures equal the full cost of scheduled benefits through 2077, the year prior to trust fund 

reserve depletion.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

20162020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Trust Fund Ratio

Figure 1. Current Law and Proposal OASDI Trust Fund Reserves as 

Percent of Annual Cost: 2016 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Current Law Trust Fund Ratio

Proposal
Page 4 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders and the Honorable Peter DeFazio

Beginning in 2018, OASDI program cost is higher under the proposal than under current law. 

This difference in program cost increases quickly at first, then increases gradually over time to 

about 1.4 percent of current-law payroll by 2090. Non-interest income under the proposal is also 

higher than under current law, with the difference in non-interest income growing from 2.1 

percent of present-law payroll for 2018 to 3.6 percent of present-law payroll by 2090. The 

proposal improves the annual balance (non-interest income minus program cost) by 2.6 percent 

of payroll for 2034, with the improvement declining to 2.2 percent of payroll for 2090. Under the 

proposal, the annual balance is negative in 2016 and 2017, positive from 2018 through 2025, and 

then negative through the end of the long-range period. The annual deficit generally increases to 

2.1 percent of payroll for 2090. Under current law, the projected annual deficit for 2090 is 4.3

percent of payroll.

It is also useful to consider the projected cost, expenditures, and income for the OASDI program 

expressed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Figure 3 below illustrates these 

levels under both current law and the proposal.

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

2016 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Percent of Current-Law Taxable Payroll

Figure 2. Proposal and Current Law Cost, Expenditures, and Non-Interest 

Income as Percent of Taxable Payroll: 2016 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Current Law Cost

Current Law Non-Interest Income

Current Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Non-Interest Income

Proposal Expenditures
Page 5 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders and the Honorable Peter DeFazio

Specification for Provisions of the Proposal

Section 2. Increase the first PIA bend point above the current law level for workers becoming 

newly eligible for retirement or disability benefits or dying after 2022.

Under current law, any portion of the AIME that is below the first PIA bend point is multiplied 

by a factor of 0.90 in computing the PIA. The first bend point is changed (indexed) for each year 

by the increase or decrease in the AWI from the third prior year to the second prior year. This 

provision would increase the level of the first PIA bend point, from the level that would apply 

under current law, by 1 percent for workers becoming newly eligible or dying in 2023, by 2 

percent for workers becoming newly eligible or dying in 2024, and so on, until it reaches 15 

percent for workers becoming newly eligible or dying in 2037 and all subsequent years.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.37 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2090) by 0.71 percent of payroll.

Section 3. Use the CPI-E increase rather than the CPI-W increase to calculate the COLA, 

effective for December 2019 and later COLAs.

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

2016 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Percent of GDP

Figure 3. Proposal and Current Law Cost, Expenditures, and Non-Interest 

Income as Percent of GDP: 2016 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Current Law Cost

Current Law Non-Interest Income

Current Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Non-Interest Income

Proposal Expenditures
Page 6 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders and the Honorable Peter DeFazio

Under current law, the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) applied to Social Security 

benefits is calculated using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical 

Workers (CPI-W). We estimate that using the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E)

increase rather than the CPI-W increase in each year beginning with the December 2019 COLA 

would increase the effective COLA by 0.2 percentage point per year on average.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.37 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2090) by 0.52 percent of payroll.

Section 4. Increase the special minimum PIA for workers who become newly eligible for 

retirement or disability benefits or die in 2018 and later.

Under this provision, the minimum initial PIA for worker beneficiaries newly eligible in 2018

with 30 or more years of coverage (YOCs) would be 125 percent of the annual poverty guideline 

for a single individual, as published by the Department of Health and Human Services for 2017, 

divided by 12. For those with less than 30 YOCs, the minimum PIA per YOC in excess of 10 is 

the minimum PIA for workers with 30 or more YOCs, divided by 20. Any year in which a 

worker earns 4 quarters of coverage is determined to be a YOC. For beneficiaries newly eligible 

after 2018, the initial PIA per YOC in excess of 10 is indexed by growth in the SSA average 

wage index (AWI) to determine the minimum applicable for the year of initial eligibility. After 

the year of initial eligibility, the minimum PIA per YOC is increased by the COLA.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.13 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2090) by 0.19 percent of payroll.

Sections 5 and 6. Apply the combined OASDI payroll tax rate on earnings above $250,000, 

effective for 2018 and later.

This provision applies the OASDI payroll tax rate to earnings above $250,000 in 2018 and later. 

The $250,000 level is a fixed amount after 2018 and not indexed to the average wage increase. 

All earnings would be taxed once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $250,000, which is 

projected to occur in 2035. Any earnings above the higher of $250,000 or the current-law taxable 

maximum in a given year would not be credited for benefit computation purposes.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 2.17 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2090) by 2.45 percent of payroll.

Section 7. Apply a separate 6.2-percent tax on investment income, as defined in the 

Affordable Care Act (ACA), with unindexed thresholds as in the ACA, effective for 2018.

The ACA thresholds for Modified Adjusted Gross Income, or MAGI (AGI with adjustments for 

specific circumstances), are $200,000 for a single filer and $250,000 for a married couple filing 

jointly. This provision applies a 6.2 percent Social Security tax to the lesser of MAGI above 

these thresholds and total investment income, in the same way as the 3.8 percent tax on 
Page 7 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders and the Honorable Peter DeFazio

investment income that went into effect in 2013 under the ACA. Under this provision, there is no 

limit on the amount taxed.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.93 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2090) by 1.15 percent of payroll.

Detailed Financial Results for the Provisions of the Proposal

Summary Results by Provision

Table A provides estimates of the effects on the OASDI long-range actuarial balance for each of 

the five provisions of the proposal separately and on a combined basis. The table also includes 

estimates of the effect of each provision on the annual balance (the difference between income 

rate and the cost rate, expressed as a percent of present-law taxable payroll) for the 75th

projection year, 2090. Interaction among individual provisions is reflected only in the total 

estimates for the combined provisions.

Benefit Illustrations

Tables B1 and B2 provide illustrative examples of the projected change in benefit levels under 

the three provisions that affect benefit levels for beneficiaries retiring at age 65 in future years at 

five selected earnings levels, with selected numbers of years of work. The “Maximum-AIME 

Steady Earner” is assumed to have earnings at ages 22 through 64 that equal the present-law 

taxable maximum level (equivalent to $118,500 for 2016). As a result, the provision to increase 

the taxable maximum does not affect benefit levels illustrated in these tables. Table B3 provides 

additional important information on characteristics of the illustrative retiring workers.

Table B1 compares the initial benefit levels, assuming retirement at age 65 under the provisions 

of the proposal, to both scheduled and payable present-law benefit levels. All benefit amounts 

under the proposal are higher than those scheduled in current law, especially for the very low and 

low hypothetical earners with at least 30 years of earnings (due largely to the minimum benefit 

provision). The final two columns of this table show the level of scheduled benefits under the 

proposal as a percentage of present-law scheduled and present-law payable benefits, 

respectively.

Table B2 compares the change in scheduled benefit levels at ages 65, 75, 85, and 95 under the 

proposal to scheduled benefits under present law, assuming retirement at age 65. Table B2 shows 

that projected scheduled benefits under the provisions of this proposal increase in relation to 

present-law scheduled benefits between ages 65 and 95, because of the change in computing the 

COLA.

The hypothetical workers represented in these tables reflect average career-earnings patterns of 

workers who started receiving retirement benefits under the Social Security program in recent 

years. The tables subdivide workers with very low and low career-average earnings levels by 

their numbers of years of non-zero earnings.
Page 8 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders and the Honorable Peter DeFazio

Table B3 provides information helpful in interpreting the benefit illustrations in tables B1 and 

B2. Percentages in Table B3 are based on tabulations from a 10-percent sample of newly-entitled 

retired workers in 2007. Table B3 displays the percentages of these newly-entitled retired 

workers in 2007 that are closest to each of the illustrative examples and are:

1) “Dually Entitled”, meaning they received a higher spouse or widow(er) benefit based on 

the career earnings of their husband or wife,

2) “WEP” (Windfall Elimination Provision), meaning that they received a reduced benefit

due to having a pension based on earnings that were not covered under the OASDI 

program (primarily certain government workers), and they had less than 30 years of 

substantial earnings that were taxable under the OASDI program,

3) “Foreign Born”, meaning that they entered the Social Security coverage area after birth 

(and generally after entering working ages), and

4) “All Others”, meaning they had none of the three characteristics listed above.

The extent to which retired-worker beneficiaries represented by each of the illustrative examples 

has any of the characteristics listed above (dually entitled, WEP, foreign born) is important 

because such individuals are less dependent on the OASDI benefit that relates to their own 

career-average earnings level.

Payroll Tax Effects

Under the proposal, workers with covered earnings in excess of the higher of $250,000 and the 

current-law taxable maximum would, along with their employers, pay additional payroll taxes.

Detailed Tables Containing Annual and Summary Projections

Enclosed with this letter are tables 1, 1a, 1b, 1b.n, 1c, and 1d, which provide annual and 

summary projections for the proposal.

Trust Fund Operations

Table 1 provides projections of the financial operations of the OASDI program under the 

proposal and shows that the year of reserve depletion for the combined OASDI Trust Funds 

would be extended by 44 years, from 2034 under current law to 2078. The table shows the 

annual cost and income rates, annual balances, and trust fund ratios (reserves as percent of 

annual program cost) for OASDI, as well as the change from present law in these cost rates, 

income rates, and annual balances. Included at the bottom of this table are summarized rates for 

the 75-year (long-range) period.

The actuarial balance for the OASDI program over the 75-year projection period is improved by 

2.25 percent of taxable payroll, from an actuarial deficit of 2.66 percent of payroll under current 

law to an actuarial deficit of 0.41 percent of taxable payroll.
Page 9 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders and the Honorable Peter DeFazio

Program Transfers and Trust Fund Reserves

Column 4 of Table 1a provides a projection of the level of reserves for the theoretical combined 

OASI and DI Trust Funds, assuming enactment of the five Social Security provisions of this 

proposal. These trust fund reserve amounts are expressed in present value dollars discounted to 

January 1, 2016. The table indicates that the provisions include no new specified transfers of 

general revenue to the trust funds. For purpose of comparison, the OASDI Trust Fund reserves, 

expressed in present value dollars, are also shown for the current-law Social Security program 

both without and with the added proposal general fund transfers (zero in this case) in columns 6 

and 7.

Note that negative values in columns 4, 6, and 7 represent the “unfunded obligation” for the 

program through the year. The unfunded obligation is the present value of the shortfall of 

revenue needed to pay full scheduled benefits on a timely basis from the date of trust fund 

reserve depletion through the end of the indicated year. Gross Domestic Product (GDP),

expressed in present value dollars, is shown in column 5 for comparison with other values in the 

table.

Effect of the Social Security Provisions on the Federal Budget

Table 1b shows the projected effect, in present value discounted dollars, on the Federal budget 

(unified-budget and on-budget) cash flows and balances, assuming enactment of the five Social 

Security provisions of this proposal. Table 1b.n provides the estimated nominal dollar effect of 

enactment of the proposal on annual budget balances for years 2016 through 2026. All values in 

these tables represent the amount of change from the level projected under current law and 

reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits, not payable under the law after 

depletion of trust fund reserves, would still be paid using revenue provided from the General 

Fund of the Treasury obtained by additional borrowing from the public.

Column 1 of Table 1b shows the added proposal general fund transfers (zero in this case).

Column 2 shows the net changes in OASDI cash flow from all provisions of the proposal.

We expect the net effect of the proposal on unified budget cash flow (column 3) to be positive in 

years 2018 and later, reflecting the newly applied tax on investment income in section 7 and the 

payroll tax newly applied to earnings above $250,000 in sections 5 and 6.

Column 4 of Table 1b indicates that the effect of implementing the five provisions is a reduction 

of the Federal debt held by the public, reaching about $10.3 trillion in present value at the end of 

the 75-year projection period. Column 5 provides the projected effect of the proposal on the 

annual unified budget balances, including both the cash flow effect in column 3 and the 

additional interest on the accumulated debt in column 4. Columns 6 and 7 indicate that the 

provisions of this proposal would have no expected direct effects on the on-budget cash flow, or 

on the total Federal debt, in the future.

It is important to note that we base these estimates on the intermediate assumptions of the 2016

Trustees Report and thus these estimates are not consistent with estimates made by the Office of 

Management and Budget or the Congressional Budget Office based on their assumptions. In 
Page 10 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders and the Honorable Peter DeFazio

particular, all present values are discounted using trust fund yield assumptions under the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2016 Trustees Report.

Annual Trust Fund Operations as a Percent of GDP

Table 1c provides annual cost, annual expenditures (amount that would be payable), and annual 

tax income for the OASDI program expressed as a percentage of GDP for both present law and 

assuming enactment of the five Social Security provisions of the proposal. Showing the annual 

trust fund cash flows as a percent of GDP provides an additional perspective on these trust fund 

operations in relation to the total value of goods and services produced in the United States. The 

relationship between income and cost is similar when expressed as a percent of GDP to that 

when expressed as a percent of taxable payroll (Table 1).

Effects on Trust Fund Reserves and Unfunded Obligations

Table 1d provides estimates of the changes in trust fund reserves. Values in this table are 

expressed in present value dollars discounted to January 1, 2016.

For the 75-year (long-range) period as a whole, the present-law unfunded obligation of $11.4

trillion is reduced to $1.0 trillion in present value. This change of $10.3 trillion results from:

• A $14.1 trillion increase in revenue (column 2), primarily from additional tax revenue, 

minus

• A $3.8 trillion increase in cost (column 3), primarily from the special minimum PIA 

provision, calculating the COLA using the CPI-E rather than the CPI-W, and 

increasing current and future benefits by increasing the first PIA bend point by 15 

percent ultimately.

We hope these estimates are helpful. Please let me know if we may provide further assistance.

Sincerely,

Stephen C. Goss

Chief Actuary

Enclosures
Table A--Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of the

“Social Security Expansion Act”, Introduced by Senator Sanders and Rep. DeFazio

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

for 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

Section 2) Increase the first PIA bend point above the current 

law level for workers becomingly newly eligible for retirement 

or disability benefits or dying after 2022. Phase in an ultimate 

15-percent increase in the first bend point by raising it 1 

percent above the current level for workers becoming newly 

eligible or dying in 2023, 2 percent for workers becoming 

newly eligible or dying in 2024, and so on, until it reaches 15 

percent for workers becoming newly eligible or dying in 2037

and later ........................................................................................ -0.37 -0.71

Section 3) Use the increase in the Consumer Price Index for 

the Elderly (CPI-E) rather than the increase in the Consumer 

Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers

(CPI-W) to calculate the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), 

effective for December 2019 and later COLAs. We estimate 

this new computation would increase the effective COLA by 

about 0.2 percentage point, on average ........................................ -0.37 -0.52

Section 4) Beginning in 2018, reconfigure the special 

minimum PIA for workers becoming newly eligible or dying

after 2017: (a) A year of coverage (YOC) is defined as a year 

in which 4 quarters of coverage are earned. (b) For workers

becoming newly eligible or dying in 2018 with 30 or more 

YOCs, set the minimum PIA equal to 125 percent of the 2017 

Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) monthly 

poverty level. For those with under 30 YOCs, the PIA per 

YOC in excess of 10 YOCs is 125 percent of the HHS 

monthly poverty level for 2017, divided by 20. (c) For 

workers becoming newly eligible or dying after 2018, index 

the initial PIA per YOC by growth in the national average 

wage index (AWI). The 30 and 10 YOC levels apply for all 

workers, including those who die or become disabled under 

age 62............................................................................................ -0.13 -0.19

Sections 5 and 6) Apply the combined OASDI payroll tax rate 

on earnings above $250,000 starting in 2018. Tax all earnings 

once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $250,000. Do 

not provide benefit credit for additional earnings taxed............... 2.17 2.45

Section 7) Apply a separate 6.2 percent tax on investment 

income as defined in the Affordable Care Act (ACA), with 

unindexed thresholds as in the ACA ($200,000 single filer, 

$250,000 for married filing joint), starting in 2018. Proceeds 

go to the OASDI Trust Funds....................................................... 0.93 1.15
Table A--Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of the

“Social Security Expansion Act”, Introduced by Senator Sanders and Rep. DeFazio

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

for 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

Total for all provisions, including interaction.......................... 2.25 2.23

1

Under current law, the estimated long-range OASDI actuarial balance is -2.66 percent of taxable payroll. 2

Under current law, the estimated 75th year annual balance is -4.35 percent of taxable payroll.

Notes: All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2016 OASDI Trustees Report. 

 Estimates of individual provisions appear on a stand-alone basis relative to current law, unless otherwise stated.

Social Security Administration

Office of the Chief Actuary

February 16, 2017
Year 

Attain Increased Benefit Minimum

Age 65 (Wage-Indexed (CPI-Indexed COLA4 Formula5 Benefit6 Total Scheduled Payable

2015 Dollars) 2015 Dollars)

 

2016 718 718 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 660 812 0.6 3.1 41.9 47.2 147 147

2050 661 1,036 0.6 8.4 35.0 47.2 147 184

2080 665 1,469 0.6 8.4 35.0 47.2 147 -

 

2016 718 718 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 660 812 0.6 3.1 0.0 3.7 104 104

2050 661 1,036 0.6 8.4 0.0 9.0 109 137

2080 665 1,469 0.6 8.4 0.0 9.0 109 -

 

2016 718 718 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 660 812 0.6 3.1 0.0 3.7 104 104

2050 661 1,036 0.6 8.4 0.0 9.0 109 137

2080 665 1,469 0.6 8.4 0.0 9.0 109 -

2016 940 940 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 863 1,062 0.6 2.4 9.3 12.5 112 112

2050 865 1,356 0.6 7.0 4.5 12.5 112 141

2080 869 1,921 0.6 7.0 4.5 12.5 112 -

2016 940 940 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 863 1,062 0.6 2.4 9.3 12.5 112 112

2050 865 1,356 0.6 7.0 4.5 12.5 112 141

2080 869 1,921 0.6 7.0 4.5 12.5 112 -

2016 940 940 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 863 1,062 0.6 2.4 0.0 3.0 103 103

2050 865 1,356 0.6 7.0 0.0 7.7 108 135

2080 869 1,921 0.6 7.0 0.0 7.7 108 -

2016 1,548 1,548 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 1,423 1,750 0.6 1.4 0.0 2.0 102 102

2050 1,425 2,234 0.6 4.3 0.0 4.9 105 131

2080 1,433 3,166 0.6 4.3 0.0 4.9 105 -

2016 1,548 1,548 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 1,423 1,750 0.6 1.4 0.0 2.0 102 102

2050 1,425 2,234 0.6 4.3 0.0 4.9 105 131

2080 1,433 3,166 0.6 4.3 0.0 4.9 105 -

2016 2,053 2,053 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 1,885 2,319 0.6 1.1 0.0 1.7 102 102

2050 1,888 2,960 0.6 3.2 0.0 3.8 104 130

2080 1,899 4,195 0.6 3.2 0.0 3.8 104 -

2016 2,492 2,492 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 2,308 2,839 0.6 0.9 0.0 1.5 101 101

2050 2,309 3,622 0.6 2.6 0.0 3.2 103 129

2080 2,317 5,119 0.6 2.6 0.0 3.2 103 -

1

2 Projected percent of new retired worker awards in 2050 with current-law AIME levels and years of covered earnings closest to AIME levels and years of covered earnings shown.

3 After the trust fund reserves deplete under current law continuing taxes are expected to be enough to pay about three fourths of scheduled benefits.

4

5

6

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2016 Trustees Report.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration February 16, 2017

 Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($118,500 for 20161) 43-Year Steady Earner (6.3% of Retirees2)

Average of highest 35 years of taxable earnings wage indexed to 2016. For the Maximum-Current-Law-AIME worker, we show the taxable maximum in 2016.

Starting Dec 2019, compute the COLA using the CPI-E, producing 0.2% higher annual COLAs on average.

For newly eligibles, increase the current-law first PIA bend point by 1% for 2023, 2% for 2024, ..., and 15% for 2037 and later.

For beneficiaries newly eligible in 2018, establish a minimum PIA level such that a worker with 30/10 years of coverage would receive an initial PIA of at least 125%/0% of the monthly 

poverty level for 2017. For beneficiaries newly eligible after 2018, the initial minimum PIA level would be adjusted for average wage growth. The Minimum Benefit Percent change is 

calculated after all other provisions, so that the Proposed Benefit Amount is at least the Minimum Benefit, where applicable.

 High-AIME ($78,594 for 20161) 44-Year Scaled Earner (19.8% of Retirees2)

(Percent change) (Percents)

 Very-Low-AIME ($12,280 for 20161

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (8.9% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($12,280 for 20161) 20-Year Scaled Earner (5.2% of Retirees2

)

 Very-Low-AIME ($12,280 for 20161

) 14-Year Scaled Earner (4.2% of Retirees2

)

 Low-AIME ($22,105 for 20161

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (16.9% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($22,105 for 20161) 30-Year Scaled Earner (4.4% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($22,105 for 20161) 20-Year Scaled Earner (2.0% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($49,121 for 20161

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (29.2% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($49,121 for 20161) 30-Year Scaled Earner (3.2% of Retirees2)

Monthly Benefits3 Percent of Current Law:

Table B1. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Beginning Benefit Receipt at age 65 

Social Security Expansion Act , introduced by Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Peter DeFazio

Scheduled Benefit Level Percent Change at age 65

Current Law Scheduled Proposal Scheduled Benefit
Year 

Attain

Age 65 Age 65 Age 75 Age 85 Age 95

2016 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 147.2 150.1 153.0 156.0

2050 147.2 150.1 153.0 156.0

2080 147.2 150.1 153.0 156.0

2016 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 103.7 105.7 107.8 109.9

2050 109.0 111.1 113.3 115.6

2080 109.0 111.1 113.3 115.5

2016 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 103.7 105.7 107.8 109.9

2050 109.0 111.1 113.3 115.6

2080 109.0 111.1 113.3 115.5

2016 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 112.5 114.7 117.0 119.3

2050 112.5 114.7 116.9 119.2

2080 112.5 114.7 117.0 119.3

2016 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 112.5 114.7 117.0 119.3

2050 112.5 114.7 116.9 119.2

2080 112.5 114.7 117.0 119.3

2016 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 103.0 105.0 107.0 109.1

2050 107.7 109.8 111.9 114.1

2080 107.7 109.8 111.9 114.1

2016 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 102.0 104.0 106.1 108.2

2050 104.9 106.9 109.0 111.2

2080 104.9 106.9 109.1 111.2

2016 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 102.0 104.0 106.1 108.2

2050 104.9 106.9 109.0 111.2

2080 104.9 106.9 109.1 111.2

2016 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 101.7 103.7 105.7 107.8

2050 103.8 105.9 108.0 110.1

2080 103.8 105.9 108.0 110.1

2016 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 101.5 103.5 105.5 107.6

2050 103.2 105.3 107.3 109.4

2080 103.2 105.3 107.3 109.5

1

2 Projected percent of new retired worker awards in 2050 with current-law AIME levels and years of covered earnings closest to AIME levels and years of covered earnings shown.

Note: Starting Dec 2019, compute the COLA using the CPI-E, producing 0.2% higher annual COLAs on average.

Other Changes: 

-

-

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2016 Trustees Report.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration February 16, 2017

 Very-Low-AIME ($12,280 for 20161) 14-Year Scaled Earner (4.2% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($22,105 for 20161) 44-Year Scaled Earner (16.9% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($22,105 for 20161) 30-Year Scaled Earner (4.4% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($22,105 for 20161) 20-Year Scaled Earner (2.0% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($49,121 for 20161) 44-Year Scaled Earner (29.2% of Retirees2

)

 Medium-AIME ($49,121 for 20161) 30-Year Scaled Earner (3.2% of Retirees2

)

 High-AIME ($78,594 for 20161) 44-Year Scaled Earner (19.8% of Retirees2

)

 Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($118,500 for 20161) 43-Year Steady Earner (6.3% of Retirees2)

Average of highest 35 years of taxable earnings wage indexed to 2016. For the Maximum-Current-Law-AIME worker, we show the taxable maximum in 2016.

For newly eligibles, increase the current-law first PIA bend point by 1% for 2023, 2% for 2024, ..., and 15% for 2037 and later.

For beneficiaries newly eligible in 2018, establish a minimum PIA level such that a worker with 30/10 years of coverage would receive an initial PIA of at least 125%/0% of the 

monthly poverty level for 2017. For beneficiaries newly eligible after 2018, the initial minimum PIA level would be adjusted for average wage growth. 

 Very-Low-AIME ($12,280 for 20161) 20-Year Scaled Earner (5.2% of Retirees2)

Table B2. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Beginning Benefit Receipt at age 65 

Social Security Expansion Act , introduced by Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Peter DeFazio

Proposal Scheduled Benefit as Percent of Current Law Scheduled

(Percent)

 Very-Low-AIME ($12,280 for 20161) 30-Year Scaled Earner (8.9% of Retirees2)
Category Dually Entitled2 WEP3 Foreign Born All Others4

Very-Low-AIME ($12,280 for 20161):

30-Year Scaled Earner (9.3% of Retirees) 47 6 11 40

20-Year Scaled Earner (5.8% of Retirees) 38 16 21 31

14-Year Scaled Earner (5.3% of Retirees) 22 21 45 20

Low-AIME ($22,105 for 20161):

44-Year Scaled Earner (13.1% of Retirees) 15 2 6 78

30-Year Scaled Earner (5.9% of Retirees) 16 9 18 59

20-Year Scaled Earner (3.1% of Retirees) 10 23 35 37

Medium-AIME ($49,121 for 20161):

44-Year Scaled Earner (23.0% of Retirees) 1 1 5 93

30-Year Scaled Earner (4.4% of Retirees) 1 8 26 67

High-AIME ($78,594 for 20161):

44-Year Scaled Earner (20.5% of Retirees) 0 0 6 93

Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($118,500 for 20161):

Steady Earner (9.4% of Retirees) 0 0 7 93

1

2

3 Covered by pension from government employment and are subject to the windfall elimination provision (WEP).

4 Neither foreign born, subject to WEP, or dually entitled.

June 22, 2016

Note 3: The sum of the percentages for each category (sum across rows) could be greater than 100 percent because some beneficiaries can be classified in more than one of the 

following groups: dually entitled, WEP, and foreign born. 

Average of highest 35 years of taxable earnings wage indexed to 2016. For the Maximum-Current-Law-AIME worker, we show the taxable maximum in 2016.

Under current law, entitled to an additional benefit based on someone else's account. The dually entitled percent is a minimum value. Some beneficiaries that are not currently 

dually entitled could become dually entitled in the future.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration

Table B3. Important Characteristics of Hypothetical Workers in 2007

Percent of Beneficiaries Within Each Category That Are:

Note 1:Table B3 displays the percentages of these newly-entitled retired workers in 2007 that are closest to each of the illustrative examples.

Note 2: Percents based on tabulations of a 10-percent sample of newly entitled retired-worker beneficiaries in 2007 (169,725 records). We can be 95 percent confident that each of 

the values shown above is within 1.4 percentage points of the value we would find using 100 percent of the retirees in 2007.
Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

Social Security Expansion Act, introduced by Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Peter DeFazio

Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2016 14.05 12.94 -1.10 303 0.00 0.00 0.00

2017 13.72 12.92 -0.80 293 0.00 0.00 0.00

2018 13.86 15.08 1.22 277 0.00 2.12 2.12

2019 13.99 15.21 1.22 276 0.00 2.24 2.24

2020 14.17 15.27 1.10 275 0.03 2.29 2.25

2021 14.34 15.34 1.00 274 0.07 2.33 2.27

2022 14.59 15.41 0.82 272 0.10 2.38 2.28

2023 14.89 15.47 0.58 268 0.13 2.42 2.28

2024 15.19 15.55 0.36 264 0.17 2.46 2.29

2025 15.49 15.61 0.12 258 0.21 2.50 2.29

2026 15.71 15.69 -0.02 254 0.24 2.56 2.32

2027 15.92 15.77 -0.15 250 0.28 2.63 2.35

2028 16.13 15.85 -0.27 246 0.31 2.70 2.39

2029 16.32 15.94 -0.38 243 0.35 2.77 2.42

2030 16.49 16.02 -0.46 240 0.39 2.84 2.46

2031 16.64 16.11 -0.53 238 0.42 2.92 2.50

2032 16.79 16.20 -0.59 235 0.46 3.00 2.54

2033 16.91 16.29 -0.61 233 0.50 3.09 2.59

2034 17.00 16.39 -0.62 230 0.54 3.17 2.64

2035 17.07 16.42 -0.65 228 0.57 3.21 2.63

2036 17.17 16.44 -0.73 226 0.61 3.22 2.61

2037 17.25 16.46 -0.79 223 0.65 3.23 2.58

2038 17.30 16.47 -0.83 220 0.69 3.24 2.55

2039 17.34 16.49 -0.85 217 0.73 3.26 2.53

2040 17.35 16.50 -0.86 214 0.76 3.27 2.50

2041 17.36 16.51 -0.85 212 0.80 3.28 2.48

2042 17.36 16.52 -0.84 209 0.83 3.29 2.46

2043 17.36 16.53 -0.83 206 0.86 3.30 2.44

2044 17.36 16.54 -0.82 203 0.89 3.31 2.42

2045 17.37 16.55 -0.82 201 0.92 3.32 2.40

2046 17.37 16.56 -0.81 198 0.94 3.33 2.38

2047 17.37 16.57 -0.81 195 0.97 3.34 2.37

2048 17.38 16.58 -0.80 193 0.99 3.34 2.35

2049 17.39 16.58 -0.80 190 1.02 3.35 2.34

2050 17.40 16.59 -0.80 187 1.04 3.36 2.32

2051 17.42 16.60 -0.81 185 1.06 3.37 2.31

2052 17.45 16.61 -0.84 182 1.08 3.38 2.30

2053 17.49 16.62 -0.87 178 1.10 3.38 2.29

2054 17.54 16.63 -0.91 175 1.11 3.39 2.28

2055 17.59 16.64 -0.95 171 1.13 3.40 2.27

2056 17.65 16.65 -1.00 167 1.15 3.41 2.26

2057 17.72 16.66 -1.05 163 1.16 3.41 2.25

2058 17.78 16.67 -1.11 158 1.18 3.42 2.25

2059 17.85 16.69 -1.16 153 1.19 3.43 2.24

2060 17.91 16.70 -1.21 148 1.20 3.43 2.23

2061 17.97 16.71 -1.26 143 1.21 3.44 2.23

2062 18.03 16.72 -1.32 137 1.22 3.45 2.22

2063 18.09 16.73 -1.36 131 1.23 3.45 2.22

2064 18.15 16.74 -1.41 125 1.24 3.46 2.22

2065 18.21 16.74 -1.46 118 1.25 3.47 2.21

2066 18.27 16.75 -1.51 111 1.26 3.47 2.21

2067 18.33 16.76 -1.57 104 1.27 3.48 2.21

2068 18.39 16.77 -1.62 97 1.28 3.48 2.21

2069 18.45 16.78 -1.67 89 1.28 3.49 2.21

2070 18.51 16.79 -1.72 81 1.29 3.49 2.20

2071 18.56 16.80 -1.76 72 1.30 3.50 2.20

2072 18.60 16.81 -1.80 64 1.30 3.50 2.20

2073 18.65 16.81 -1.83 55 1.31 3.51 2.20

2074 18.68 16.82 -1.86 46 1.31 3.51 2.20

2075 18.71 16.83 -1.88 37 1.31 3.52 2.21

2076 18.72 16.84 -1.89 27 1.32 3.52 2.21

2077 18.73 16.84 -1.89 18 1.32 3.53 2.21

2078 18.73 16.85 -1.88 8 1.32 3.53 2.21

2079 18.73 16.85 -1.88 ---- 1.32 3.54 2.22

2080 18.73 16.85 -1.87 ---- 1.32 3.54 2.22

2081 18.73 16.86 -1.87 ---- 1.33 3.55 2.22

2082 18.73 16.86 -1.87 ---- 1.33 3.55 2.22

2083 18.75 16.87 -1.88 ---- 1.33 3.56 2.23

2084 18.77 16.87 -1.90 ---- 1.33 3.56 2.23

2085 18.80 16.88 -1.92 ---- 1.33 3.57 2.23

2086 18.84 16.89 -1.95 ---- 1.34 3.57 2.23

2087 18.88 16.89 -1.99 ---- 1.34 3.57 2.23

2088 18.93 16.90 -2.03 ---- 1.34 3.58 2.23

2089 18.98 16.91 -2.07 ---- 1.35 3.58 2.23

2090 19.03 16.91 -2.11 ---- 1.35 3.59 2.23

2091 19.08 16.92 -2.16 ---- 1.36 3.59 2.23

Summarized Rates: OASDI Summarized Rates: OASDI

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

2016 - 2090 17.35% 16.94% -0.41% 2078 0.84% 3.09% 2.25%

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2016 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration

1

Under present law the year of combined Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034.

Year of reserve 

depletion1

Office of the Chief Actuary

February 16, 2017

Proposal Change from Current Law

Expressed as a percentage of current-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of current-law

taxable payroll
Table 1a - General Fund Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Reserves, and Theoretical OASDI Reserves

Social Security Expansion Act, introduced by Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Peter DeFazio

Percentage

of Payroll

Annual

Amounts

Accumulated as of 

End of Year

Gross Domestic 

Product

Without General

Fund Transfers

With Plan General

Fund Transfers

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,741.0 18,368.5 2,741.0 2,741.0

2017 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,687.5 18,780.3 2,687.5 2,687.5

2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,772.4 19,199.4 2,625.9 2,625.9

2019 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,859.3 19,590.0 2,554.4 2,554.4

2020 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,939.5 19,948.3 2,471.7 2,471.7

2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,013.9 20,275.2 2,378.9 2,378.9

2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,076.1 20,546.2 2,270.6 2,270.6

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,121.0 20,765.2 2,142.4 2,142.4

2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,149.3 20,965.2 1,994.9 1,994.9

2025 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,159.5 21,141.0 1,827.2 1,827.2

2026 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,158.9 21,283.5 1,645.4 1,645.4

2027 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,148.1 21,355.9 1,450.6 1,450.6

2028 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,128.2 21,346.6 1,244.3 1,244.3

2029 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,100.4 21,259.6 1,028.4 1,028.4

2030 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,066.2 21,099.1 804.8 804.8

2031 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,027.1 20,898.2 575.3 575.3

2032 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,984.4 20,696.5 341.0 341.0

2033 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,940.1 20,500.4 103.7 103.7

2034 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,896.2 20,306.0 -134.7 -134.7

2035 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,850.5 20,116.5 -372.8 -372.8

2036 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,799.5 19,925.6 -612.3 -612.3

2037 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,744.3 19,743.3 -852.1 -852.1

2038 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,686.9 19,571.8 -1,090.4 -1,090.4

2039 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,628.8 19,401.7 -1,326.1 -1,326.1

2040 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,570.8 19,234.9 -1,558.1 -1,558.1

2041 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,513.7 19,071.7 -1,786.1 -1,786.1

2042 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,457.6 18,908.8 -2,010.0 -2,010.0

2043 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,402.8 18,751.3 -2,229.8 -2,229.8

2044 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,349.3 18,594.5 -2,445.4 -2,445.4

2045 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,296.3 18,429.9 -2,657.8 -2,657.8

2046 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,244.1 18,269.6 -2,866.7 -2,866.7

2047 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,193.0 18,107.9 -3,072.2 -3,072.2

2048 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,142.5 17,944.3 -3,274.5 -3,274.5

2049 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,092.6 17,781.3 -3,473.9 -3,473.9

2050 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,043.2 17,618.6 -3,670.6 -3,670.6

2051 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,993.5 17,454.0 -3,865.4 -3,865.4

2052 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,942.8 17,289.8 -4,059.0 -4,059.0

2053 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,890.7 17,125.7 -4,251.9 -4,251.9

2054 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,836.9 16,960.9 -4,444.5 -4,444.5

2055 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,780.9 16,796.5 -4,637.2 -4,637.2

2056 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,722.5 16,631.9 -4,830.5 -4,830.5

2057 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,661.6 16,467.6 -5,024.3 -5,024.3

2058 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,598.3 16,304.7 -5,218.8 -5,218.8

2059 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,532.6 16,142.6 -5,413.9 -5,413.9

2060 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,464.5 15,981.3 -5,609.6 -5,609.6

2061 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,394.3 15,821.7 -5,805.8 -5,805.8

2062 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,322.0 15,664.2 -6,002.5 -6,002.5

2063 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,247.8 15,508.7 -6,199.6 -6,199.6

2064 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,171.7 15,355.7 -6,397.1 -6,397.1

2065 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,093.7 15,204.5 -6,595.0 -6,595.0

2066 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,013.8 15,055.3 -6,793.3 -6,793.3

2067 0.0 0.0 0.0 932.1 14,907.9 -6,992.1 -6,992.1

2068 0.0 0.0 0.0 848.6 14,762.2 -7,191.4 -7,191.4

2069 0.0 0.0 0.0 763.4 14,618.0 -7,391.0 -7,391.0

2070 0.0 0.0 0.0 676.5 14,476.2 -7,591.0 -7,591.0

2071 0.0 0.0 0.0 588.3 14,336.4 -7,791.2 -7,791.2

2072 0.0 0.0 0.0 499.2 14,198.6 -7,991.1 -7,991.1

2073 0.0 0.0 0.0 409.3 14,062.2 -8,190.5 -8,190.5

2074 0.0 0.0 0.0 319.2 13,927.2 -8,389.1 -8,389.1

2075 0.0 0.0 0.0 229.0 13,793.7 -8,586.7 -8,586.7

2076 0.0 0.0 0.0 139.4 13,661.5 -8,782.6 -8,782.6

2077 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.6 13,530.3 -8,976.7 -8,976.7

2078 0.0 0.0 0.0 -37.1 13,399.9 -9,168.8 -9,168.8

2079 0.0 0.0 0.0 -123.6 13,271.0 -9,358.6 -9,358.6

2080 0.0 0.0 0.0 -208.8 13,143.2 -9,546.2 -9,546.2

2081 0.0 0.0 0.0 -292.9 13,016.0 -9,731.8 -9,731.8

2082 0.0 0.0 0.0 -376.3 12,889.1 -9,915.6 -9,915.6

2083 0.0 0.0 0.0 -459.2 12,762.3 -10,098.0 -10,098.0

2084 0.0 0.0 0.0 -542.0 12,635.6 -10,279.3 -10,279.3

2085 0.0 0.0 0.0 -625.0 12,509.3 -10,459.9 -10,459.9

2086 0.0 0.0 0.0 -708.4 12,383.5 -10,639.8 -10,639.8

2087 0.0 0.0 0.0 -792.5 12,258.4 -10,819.4 -10,819.4

2088 0.0 0.0 0.0 -877.3 12,134.0 -10,998.8 -10,998.8

2089 0.0 0.0 0.0 -963.0 12,010.4 -11,177.9 -11,177.9

2090 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,049.5 11,887.6 -11,356.8 -11,356.8

2091 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,136.8 11,765.8 -11,535.6 -11,535.6

Total 2016-2090 0.0

Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2016 Trustees Report.

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.7%.

Office of the Chief Actuary

1

 Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption Social Security Administration

 that the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury. February 16, 2017

Calendar

Year

Proposal General Fund Transfers Present Value in Billions as of 1-1-2016

Proposal

Total OASDI

Trust Fund

Reserves

 at End of Year

Theoretical Social Security1

with Borrowing Authority

Present Value in Billions as of 1-1- 2016 Net OASDI Trust Fund Reserves at End of Year
Table 1b - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1

 (Present Value Dollars)

Social Security Expansion Act, introduced by Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Peter DeFazio

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End Of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2017 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2018 0.0 146.5 146.5 -146.5 146.5 0.0 0.0

2019 0.0 158.4 158.4 -304.9 162.9 0.0 0.0

2020 0.0 163.0 163.0 -467.8 172.5 0.0 0.0

2021 0.0 167.1 167.1 -635.0 181.9 0.0 0.0

2022 0.0 170.5 170.5 -805.5 190.9 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 173.1 173.1 -978.6 199.6 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 175.7 175.7 -1,154.3 208.9 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 178.0 178.0 -1,332.3 218.3 0.0 0.0

2026 0.0 181.2 181.2 -1,513.5 231.9 0.0 0.0

2027 0.0 184.0 184.0 -1,697.5 246.4 0.0 0.0

2028 0.0 186.4 186.4 -1,883.9 261.7 0.0 0.0

2029 0.0 188.1 188.1 -2,072.0 277.8 0.0 0.0

2030 0.0 189.4 189.4 -2,261.4 295.0 0.0 0.0

2031 0.0 190.4 190.4 -2,451.8 305.6 0.0 0.0

2032 0.0 191.6 191.6 -2,643.4 316.5 0.0 0.0

2033 0.0 193.0 193.0 -2,836.3 327.7 0.0 0.0

2034 0.0 194.6 194.6 -3,030.9 339.2 0.0 0.0

2035 0.0 192.4 192.4 -3,223.3 346.9 0.0 0.0

2036 0.0 188.4 188.4 -3,411.8 352.7 0.0 0.0

2037 0.0 184.6 184.6 -3,596.4 358.5 0.0 0.0

2038 0.0 181.0 181.0 -3,777.3 364.3 0.0 0.0

2039 0.0 177.5 177.5 -3,954.8 370.0 0.0 0.0

2040 0.0 174.1 174.1 -4,128.9 375.7 0.0 0.0

2041 0.0 170.9 170.9 -4,299.8 381.3 0.0 0.0

2042 0.0 167.8 167.8 -4,467.6 387.0 0.0 0.0

2043 0.0 164.9 164.9 -4,632.5 392.6 0.0 0.0

2044 0.0 162.2 162.2 -4,794.7 398.3 0.0 0.0

2045 0.0 159.4 159.4 -4,954.1 403.8 0.0 0.0

2046 0.0 156.8 156.8 -5,110.9 409.2 0.0 0.0

2047 0.0 154.3 154.3 -5,265.1 414.7 0.0 0.0

2048 0.0 151.8 151.8 -5,417.0 420.2 0.0 0.0

2049 0.0 149.5 149.5 -5,566.5 425.6 0.0 0.0

2050 0.0 147.3 147.3 -5,713.8 431.0 0.0 0.0

2051 0.0 145.1 145.1 -5,858.9 436.3 0.0 0.0

2052 0.0 142.9 142.9 -6,001.8 441.5 0.0 0.0

2053 0.0 140.8 140.8 -6,142.6 446.7 0.0 0.0

2054 0.0 138.8 138.8 -6,281.3 451.8 0.0 0.0

2055 0.0 136.8 136.8 -6,418.1 456.9 0.0 0.0

2056 0.0 134.9 134.9 -6,553.0 462.0 0.0 0.0

2057 0.0 133.0 133.0 -6,685.9 466.9 0.0 0.0

2058 0.0 131.1 131.1 -6,817.1 471.9 0.0 0.0

2059 0.0 129.4 129.4 -6,946.5 476.8 0.0 0.0

2060 0.0 127.7 127.7 -7,074.1 481.7 0.0 0.0

2061 0.0 126.0 126.0 -7,200.1 486.5 0.0 0.0

2062 0.0 124.4 124.4 -7,324.5 491.4 0.0 0.0

2063 0.0 122.9 122.9 -7,447.4 496.2 0.0 0.0

2064 0.0 121.4 121.4 -7,568.7 500.9 0.0 0.0

2065 0.0 119.9 119.9 -7,688.6 505.6 0.0 0.0

2066 0.0 118.5 118.5 -7,807.1 510.3 0.0 0.0

2067 0.0 117.1 117.1 -7,924.2 515.0 0.0 0.0

2068 0.0 115.8 115.8 -8,039.9 519.6 0.0 0.0

2069 0.0 114.4 114.4 -8,154.4 524.2 0.0 0.0

2070 0.0 113.2 113.2 -8,267.5 528.7 0.0 0.0

2071 0.0 111.9 111.9 -8,379.5 533.3 0.0 0.0

2072 0.0 110.7 110.7 -8,490.2 537.8 0.0 0.0

2073 0.0 109.6 109.6 -8,599.8 542.3 0.0 0.0

2074 0.0 108.5 108.5 -8,708.3 546.8 0.0 0.0

2075 0.0 107.4 107.4 -8,815.7 551.2 0.0 0.0

2076 0.0 106.3 106.3 -8,922.0 555.6 0.0 0.0

2077 0.0 105.3 105.3 -9,027.3 560.0 0.0 0.0

2078 0.0 104.3 104.3 -9,131.7 564.4 0.0 0.0

2079 0.0 103.3 103.3 -9,235.0 568.7 0.0 0.0

2080 0.0 102.4 102.4 -9,337.4 573.1 0.0 0.0

2081 0.0 101.4 101.4 -9,438.8 577.3 0.0 0.0

2082 0.0 100.5 100.5 -9,539.3 581.5 0.0 0.0

2083 0.0 99.5 99.5 -9,638.8 585.7 0.0 0.0

2084 0.0 98.5 98.5 -9,737.4 589.8 0.0 0.0

2085 0.0 97.5 97.5 -9,834.9 593.8 0.0 0.0

2086 0.0 96.5 96.5 -9,931.4 597.8 0.0 0.0

2087 0.0 95.5 95.5 -10,026.9 601.7 0.0 0.0

2088 0.0 94.5 94.5 -10,121.4 605.5 0.0 0.0

2089 0.0 93.5 93.5 -10,214.9 609.3 0.0 0.0

2090 0.0 92.5 92.5 -10,307.4 613.1 0.0 0.0

Total 2016-2090 0.0 10,307.4 10,307.4

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2016 Trustees Report.

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.7%.

Note: Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would Office of the Chief Actuary

 nonetheless be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. Social Security Administration

1

 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table.

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2016

February 16, 2017
Table 1b.n - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1

 (Nominal Dollars)

Social Security Expansion Act, introduced by Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Peter DeFazio

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2017 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2018 0.0 158.2 158.2 -160.9 160.9 0.0 0.0

2019 0.0 176.4 176.4 -345.8 184.9 0.0 0.0

2020 0.0 187.4 187.4 -548.3 202.5 0.0 0.0

2021 0.0 198.4 198.4 -769.0 220.7 0.0 0.0

2022 0.0 209.0 209.0 -1,008.8 239.8 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 219.3 219.3 -1,269.2 260.4 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 230.3 230.3 -1,552.3 283.1 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 241.5 241.5 -1,859.6 307.3 0.0 0.0

2026 0.0 255.2 255.2 -2,198.7 339.1 0.0 0.0

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2016 Trustees Report.

Note: Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would Office of the Chief Actuary

 nonetheless be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. Social Security Administration

1

 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table.

Billions of Nominal Dollars

February 16, 2017
Table 1c - Current Law and Proposal Cost, Expenditures, and Income: As Percent of Gross Domestic Product

Social Security Expansion Act, introduced by Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Peter DeFazio

Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

2016 4.98 4.98 4.59 4.98 4.98 4.59

2017 4.91 4.91 4.62 4.91 4.91 4.62

2018 4.98 4.98 4.65 4.98 4.98 5.42

2019 5.05 5.05 4.68 5.05 5.05 5.49

2020 5.12 5.12 4.70 5.13 5.13 5.53

2021 5.18 5.18 4.72 5.21 5.21 5.57

2022 5.28 5.28 4.75 5.32 5.32 5.61

2023 5.39 5.39 4.77 5.44 5.44 5.65

2024 5.50 5.50 4.79 5.56 5.56 5.69

2025 5.60 5.60 4.81 5.68 5.68 5.72

2026 5.67 5.67 4.81 5.75 5.75 5.75

2027 5.73 5.73 4.81 5.83 5.83 5.77

2028 5.78 5.78 4.81 5.89 5.89 5.79

2029 5.83 5.83 4.81 5.96 5.96 5.82

2030 5.87 5.87 4.81 6.01 6.01 5.84

2031 5.91 5.91 4.80 6.06 6.06 5.87

2032 5.94 5.94 4.80 6.11 6.11 5.89

2033 5.96 5.96 4.80 6.14 6.14 5.92

2034 5.98 5.29 4.80 6.17 6.17 5.95

2035 5.98 4.79 4.79 6.19 6.19 5.95

2036 6.00 4.79 4.79 6.22 6.22 5.96

2037 6.01 4.79 4.79 6.24 6.24 5.96

2038 6.01 4.78 4.78 6.26 6.26 5.96

2039 6.00 4.78 4.78 6.26 6.26 5.96

2040 5.99 4.78 4.78 6.26 6.26 5.95

2041 5.97 4.77 4.77 6.26 6.26 5.95

2042 5.96 4.77 4.77 6.26 6.26 5.95

2043 5.94 4.77 4.77 6.25 6.25 5.95

2044 5.93 4.76 4.76 6.25 6.25 5.96

2045 5.92 4.76 4.76 6.25 6.25 5.96

2046 5.91 4.76 4.76 6.25 6.25 5.96

2047 5.90 4.76 4.76 6.25 6.25 5.96

2048 5.89 4.76 4.76 6.25 6.25 5.96

2049 5.88 4.75 4.75 6.25 6.25 5.96

2050 5.87 4.75 4.75 6.25 6.25 5.96

2051 5.87 4.75 4.75 6.25 6.25 5.96

2052 5.87 4.75 4.75 6.26 6.26 5.96

2053 5.88 4.75 4.75 6.27 6.27 5.96

2054 5.89 4.75 4.75 6.29 6.29 5.96

2055 5.90 4.74 4.74 6.30 6.30 5.96

2056 5.91 4.74 4.74 6.32 6.32 5.96

2057 5.92 4.74 4.74 6.34 6.34 5.96

2058 5.94 4.74 4.74 6.36 6.36 5.96

2059 5.95 4.74 4.74 6.38 6.38 5.96

2060 5.97 4.74 4.74 6.40 6.40 5.96

2061 5.98 4.73 4.73 6.41 6.41 5.96

2062 5.99 4.73 4.73 6.43 6.43 5.96

2063 6.01 4.73 4.73 6.45 6.45 5.96

2064 6.02 4.73 4.73 6.46 6.46 5.96

2065 6.03 4.72 4.72 6.48 6.48 5.95

2066 6.04 4.72 4.72 6.49 6.49 5.95

2067 6.06 4.72 4.72 6.51 6.51 5.95

2068 6.07 4.71 4.71 6.52 6.52 5.95

2069 6.08 4.71 4.71 6.54 6.54 5.95

2070 6.09 4.71 4.71 6.55 6.55 5.94

2071 6.10 4.70 4.70 6.56 6.56 5.94

2072 6.11 4.70 4.70 6.57 6.57 5.94

2073 6.12 4.70 4.70 6.58 6.58 5.93

2074 6.12 4.69 4.69 6.59 6.59 5.93

2075 6.13 4.69 4.69 6.59 6.59 5.93

2076 6.12 4.68 4.68 6.59 6.59 5.92

2077 6.12 4.68 4.68 6.58 6.58 5.92

2078 6.11 4.67 4.67 6.58 6.47 5.91

2079 6.11 4.67 4.67 6.57 5.91 5.91

2080 6.10 4.66 4.66 6.56 5.91 5.91

2081 6.09 4.66 4.66 6.56 5.90 5.90

2082 6.09 4.66 4.66 6.55 5.90 5.90

2083 6.09 4.65 4.65 6.55 5.89 5.89

2084 6.09 4.65 4.65 6.55 5.89 5.89

2085 6.09 4.64 4.64 6.56 5.89 5.89

2086 6.10 4.64 4.64 6.57 5.89 5.89

2087 6.11 4.64 4.64 6.58 5.88 5.88

2088 6.12 4.64 4.64 6.59 5.88 5.88

2089 6.13 4.63 4.63 6.60 5.88 5.88

2090 6.14 4.63 4.63 6.61 5.88 5.88

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2016 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Current Law OASDI Proposal OASDI

Calendar

Year

February 16, 2017
Table 1d - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Reserves / Unfunded Obligation

Social Security Expansion Act, introduced by Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Peter DeFazio

Year

Current Law OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Total Change

Through

End of Year

Proposal OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) = cumulative sum(4) (6) = (1)+(5)

2016 2,741.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,741.0

2017 2,687.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,687.5

2018 2,625.9 146.6 0.1 146.5 146.5 2,772.4

2019 2,554.4 158.5 0.2 158.4 304.9 2,859.3

2020 2,471.7 165.4 2.4 163.0 467.8 2,939.5

2021 2,378.9 172.0 4.9 167.1 635.0 3,013.9

2022 2,270.6 178.0 7.5 170.5 805.5 3,076.1

2023 2,142.4 183.3 10.2 173.1 978.6 3,121.0

2024 1,994.9 188.7 13.0 175.7 1,154.3 3,149.3

2025 1,827.2 193.9 15.9 178.0 1,332.3 3,159.5

2026 1,645.4 200.0 18.8 181.2 1,513.5 3,158.9

2027 1,450.6 205.6 21.6 184.0 1,697.5 3,148.1

2028 1,244.3 210.8 24.4 186.4 1,883.9 3,128.2

2029 1,028.4 215.1 27.1 188.1 2,072.0 3,100.4

2030 804.8 219.1 29.7 189.4 2,261.4 3,066.2

2031 575.3 222.6 32.2 190.4 2,451.8 3,027.1

2032 341.0 226.3 34.7 191.6 2,643.4 2,984.4

2033 103.7 230.2 37.2 193.0 2,836.3 2,940.1

2034 -134.7 234.2 39.6 194.6 3,030.9 2,896.2

2035 -372.8 234.3 41.9 192.4 3,223.3 2,850.5

2036 -612.3 232.7 44.3 188.4 3,411.8 2,799.5

2037 -852.1 231.2 46.6 184.6 3,596.4 2,744.3

2038 -1,090.4 229.8 48.9 181.0 3,777.3 2,686.9

2039 -1,326.1 228.5 51.0 177.5 3,954.8 2,628.8

2040 -1,558.1 227.0 53.0 174.1 4,128.9 2,570.8

2041 -1,786.1 225.7 54.8 170.9 4,299.8 2,513.7

2042 -2,010.0 224.3 56.5 167.8 4,467.6 2,457.6

2043 -2,229.8 223.0 58.1 164.9 4,632.5 2,402.8

2044 -2,445.4 221.7 59.6 162.2 4,794.7 2,349.3

2045 -2,657.8 220.3 60.9 159.4 4,954.1 2,296.3

2046 -2,866.7 218.9 62.1 156.8 5,110.9 2,244.1

2047 -3,072.2 217.4 63.2 154.3 5,265.1 2,193.0

2048 -3,274.5 216.0 64.1 151.8 5,417.0 2,142.5

2049 -3,473.9 214.5 65.0 149.5 5,566.5 2,092.6

2050 -3,670.6 213.0 65.7 147.3 5,713.8 2,043.2

2051 -3,865.4 211.4 66.3 145.1 5,858.9 1,993.5

2052 -4,059.0 209.8 66.9 142.9 6,001.8 1,942.8

2053 -4,251.9 208.1 67.3 140.8 6,142.6 1,890.7

2054 -4,444.5 206.5 67.7 138.8 6,281.3 1,836.9

2055 -4,637.2 204.8 68.0 136.8 6,418.1 1,780.9

2056 -4,830.5 203.1 68.3 134.9 6,553.0 1,722.5

2057 -5,024.3 201.4 68.4 133.0 6,685.9 1,661.6

2058 -5,218.8 199.7 68.6 131.1 6,817.1 1,598.3

2059 -5,413.9 198.0 68.6 129.4 6,946.5 1,532.6

2060 -5,609.6 196.2 68.6 127.7 7,074.1 1,464.5

2061 -5,805.8 194.5 68.5 126.0 7,200.1 1,394.3

2062 -6,002.5 192.8 68.4 124.4 7,324.5 1,322.0

2063 -6,199.6 191.1 68.2 122.9 7,447.4 1,247.8

2064 -6,397.1 189.4 68.0 121.4 7,568.7 1,171.7

2065 -6,595.0 187.6 67.7 119.9 7,688.6 1,093.7

2066 -6,793.3 185.9 67.5 118.5 7,807.1 1,013.8

2067 -6,992.1 184.2 67.2 117.1 7,924.2 932.1

2068 -7,191.4 182.6 66.8 115.8 8,039.9 848.6

2069 -7,391.0 180.9 66.5 114.4 8,154.4 763.4

2070 -7,591.0 179.3 66.1 113.2 8,267.5 676.5

2071 -7,791.2 177.6 65.7 111.9 8,379.5 588.3

2072 -7,991.1 176.0 65.3 110.7 8,490.2 499.2

2073 -8,190.5 174.4 64.8 109.6 8,599.8 409.3

2074 -8,389.1 172.8 64.3 108.5 8,708.3 319.2

2075 -8,586.7 171.2 63.8 107.4 8,815.7 229.0

2076 -8,782.6 169.7 63.3 106.3 8,922.0 139.4

2077 -8,976.7 168.1 62.8 105.3 9,027.3 50.6

2078 -9,168.8 166.5 62.2 104.3 9,131.7 -37.1

2079 -9,358.6 165.0 61.6 103.3 9,235.0 -123.6

2080 -9,546.2 163.4 61.0 102.4 9,337.4 -208.8

2081 -9,731.8 161.9 60.4 101.4 9,438.8 -292.9

2082 -9,915.6 160.4 59.9 100.5 9,539.3 -376.3

2083 -10,098.0 158.8 59.3 99.5 9,638.8 -459.2

2084 -10,279.3 157.3 58.8 98.5 9,737.4 -542.0

2085 -10,459.9 155.8 58.3 97.5 9,834.9 -625.0

2086 -10,639.8 154.3 57.8 96.5 9,931.4 -708.4

2087 -10,819.4 152.8 57.3 95.5 10,026.9 -792.5

2088 -10,998.8 151.3 56.8 94.5 10,121.4 -877.3

2089 -11,177.9 149.8 56.3 93.5 10,214.9 -963.0

2090 -11,356.8 148.3 55.9 92.5 10,307.4 -1,049.5

Total 2016-2090 14091.3 3784.0 10307.4

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2016 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.7%. February 16, 2017

(Billions of Dollars, Present Value on 1-1-2016)