THE 2023 ANNUAL REPORT OF THE BOARD OF 

TRUSTEES OF THE FEDERAL OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS 

INSURANCE AND FEDERAL DISABILITY INSURANCE 

TRUST FUNDS

COMMUNICATION

FROM

THE BOARD OF TRUSTEES, FEDERAL OLD-AGE AND 

SURVIVORS INSURANCE AND FEDERAL DISABILITY 

INSURANCE TRUST FUNDS

TRANSMITTING

THE 2023 ANNUAL REPORT OF THE BOARD OF TRUSTEES OF THE 

FEDERAL OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE AND FEDERAL 

DISABILITY INSURANCE TRUST FUNDS
.
LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL

BOARD OF TRUSTEES OF THE

FEDERAL OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE AND

FEDERAL DISABILITY INSURANCE TRUST FUNDS,

Washington, D.C., March 31, 2023

HON. KEVIN MCCARTHY,

Speaker of the House of Representatives.

HON. KAMALA D. HARRIS,

President of the Senate.

DEAR MR. SPEAKER AND MADAM PRESIDENT:

We have the honor of transmitting to you the 2023 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance

Trust Funds, the 83rd such report.

Respectfully,

JANET YELLEN, Secretary of the Treasury, 

and Managing Trustee of the Trust Funds.

JULIE A. SU, Acting Secretary of Labor, 

and Trustee.

XAVIER BECERRA,

Secretary of Health and Human Services, 

and Trustee.

KILOLO KIJAKAZI,

Acting Commissioner of 

Social Security, and Trustee.

VACANT,

Public Trustee.

VACANT,

Public Trustee.

SCOTT L. FREY, Chief of Staff, Social Security Administration, 

and Acting Secretary, Board of Trustees.
CONTENTS

(V)

I. INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

II. OVERVIEW . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

A. HIGHLIGHTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

B. TRUST FUND FINANCIAL OPERATIONS IN 2022 . . . . . . . 7

C. ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

D. PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE FINANCIAL STATUS . . . . . . . 11

E. CONCLUSION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

III. FINANCIAL OPERATIONS OF THE TRUST FUNDS AND

LEGISLATIVE CHANGES IN THE LAST YEAR . . . . . . . . . . 28

A. OPERATIONS OF THE OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS 

INSURANCE (OASI) AND DISABILITY INSURANCE (DI) 

TRUST FUNDS, IN CALENDAR YEAR 2022 . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

1. OASI Trust Fund . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

2. DI Trust Fund . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

3. OASI and DI Trust Funds, Combined . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

B. CHANGES IN LAW AND POLICY AFFECTING SOCIAL 

SECURITY SINCE THE 2022 REPORT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

IV. ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

A. SHORT-RANGE ESTIMATES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

1. Operations of the OASI Trust Fund. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

2. Operations of the DI Trust Fund . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46

3. Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds . . . . . 49

4. Factors Underlying Changes in 10-Year Trust Fund Ratio 

Estimates From Last Year’s Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

B. LONG-RANGE ESTIMATES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

1. Annual Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances . . . . . . . . . . 54

2. Comparison of Workers to Beneficiaries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63

3. Trust Fund Ratios and Test of Long-Range 

Close Actuarial Balance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66

4. Summarized Income Rates, Summarized Cost Rates, 

and Actuarial Balances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70

5. Open-Group Unfunded Obligation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73

6. Reasons for Change in Actuarial Balance From Last Report . . 75
(VI)

V. ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS UNDERLYING

ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82

A. DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS . . . . . . . 83

1. Fertility Assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83

2. Mortality Assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85

3. Immigration Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89

4. Total Population Estimates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96

5. Life Expectancy Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98

B. ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS . . . . . . . . . . . 102

1. Productivity Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103

2. Price Inflation Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104

3. Average Earnings Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105

4. Assumed Real Wage Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108

5. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment Projections . . 111

6. Gross Domestic Product Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114

7. Interest Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115

C. PROGRAM-SPECIFIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS . . . 119

1. Automatically Adjusted Program Parameters. . . . . . . . . . . . . 119

2. Covered Employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127

3. Insured Population. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128

4. Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Beneficiaries. . . . . . . . . . . 131

5. Disability Insurance Beneficiaries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137

6. Covered and Taxable Earnings, Taxable Payroll, and Payroll Tax 

Contributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147

7. Income From Taxation of Benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152

8. Average Benefits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153

9. Scheduled Benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154

10. Illustrative Scheduled Benefit Amounts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154

11. Administrative Expenses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157

12. Railroad Retirement Financial Interchange . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158

VI. APPENDICES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159

A. HISTORY OF OASI AND DI TRUST FUND OPERATIONS. . 159

B. HISTORY OF ACTUARIAL STATUS ESTIMATES . . . . . . . . 171

C. FISCAL YEAR HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED 

TRUST FUND OPERATIONS THROUGH 2032 . . . . . . . . . . . 178

D. LONG-RANGE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186

1. Total Fertility Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186

2. Death Rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188

3. Immigration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189

4. Real Wage Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190

5. Consumer Price Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192

6. Real Interest Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193
(VII)

7. Taxable Ratio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194

8. Disability Incidence Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195

9. Disability Termination Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196

E. STOCHASTIC PROJECTIONS AND UNCERTAINTY . . . . . . 198

1. Background. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198

2. Stochastic Methodology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198

3. Stochastic Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199

4. Comparison of Results: Stochastic to Low-Cost, 

Intermediate, and High-Cost Alternative Scenarios . . . . . . . . 202

F. INFINITE HORIZON PROJECTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208

G. ESTIMATES FOR OASDI AND HI, SEPARATE AND 

COMBINED. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212

1. Estimates as a Percentage of Taxable Payroll. . . . . . . . . . . . . 212

2. Estimates as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product . . . . . . 218

3. Estimates in Dollars. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223

H. ANALYSIS OF BENEFIT PAYMENTS FROM THE 

OASI TRUST FUND WITH RESPECT TO DISABLED 

BENEFICIARIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235

I. GLOSSARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239

LIST OF TABLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 258

LIST OF FIGURES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263

INDEX. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265

STATEMENT OF ACTUARIAL OPINION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270
THE 2023 ANNUAL REPORT OF THE BOARD OF

TRUSTEES OF THE FEDERAL OLD-AGE AND

SURVIVORS INSURANCE AND FEDERAL DISABILITY

INSURANCE TRUST FUNDS

I. INTRODUCTION

The Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program makes

monthly income available to insured workers and their families at retirement,

death, or disability. The OASDI program consists of two parts. Retired workers, their families, and survivors of deceased workers receive monthly benefits under the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) program. Disabled

workers and their families receive monthly benefits under the Disability

Insurance (DI) program.

The Social Security Act established the Board of Trustees to oversee the

financial operations of the OASI and DI Trust Funds. The Board is composed of six members. Four members serve by virtue of their positions in the

Federal Government: the Secretary of the Treasury, who is the Managing

Trustee; the Secretary of Labor; the Secretary of Health and Human Services; and the Commissioner of Social Security. The President appoints and

the Senate confirms the other two members to serve as public representatives. These two positions are currently vacant. The Deputy Commissioner

of the Social Security Administration serves as Secretary of the Board.

The Social Security Act requires that the Board, among other duties, report

annually to the Congress on the actuarial status and financial operations of

the OASI and DI Trust Funds. The 2023 report is the 83rd such report. The

intermediate (best estimate) assumptions for this report were set in December 2022. The Trustees will continue to monitor future developments and

modify the projections in later reports as appropriate.
Overview

2

II. OVERVIEW

A. HIGHLIGHTS

This section summarizes the report’s major findings.

Now, more than 3 years after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the acute

stage of the pandemic appears to be over, but the Trustees expect there will

be residual effects on the population and the economy for years to come.

Since the assumptions for last year’s report were set, the Trustees have reassessed their expectations for the economy in light of recent developments,

including updated data on inflation and output, and have revised down the

levels of gross domestic product (GDP) and labor productivity by about

3 percent over the projection period. Assumptions for growth are largely

unchanged after the first 10 years of the projection period. The intermediate

(best estimate) assumptions for this report were set in December 2022. The

Trustees will continue to monitor developments and modify the projections

in later reports.

In 2022

At the end of 2022, the OASDI program was providing benefit payments1 to

about 66 million people: 51 million retired workers and dependents of retired

workers, 6 million survivors of deceased workers, and 9 million disabled

workers and dependents of disabled workers. During the year, an estimated

181 million people had earnings covered by Social Security and paid payroll

taxes on those earnings. The total cost of the program in 2022 was

$1,244 billion. Total income was $1,222 billion, which consisted of

$1,155 billion in non-interest income and $66 billion in interest earnings.

Asset reserves held in special issue U.S. Treasury securities declined from

$2,852 billion at the beginning of the year to $2,830 billion at the end of the

year.

Short-Range Results (2023-32)

Under the Trustees’ intermediate assumptions, Social Security’s total cost is

projected to be higher than its total income in 2023 and all later years. Total

cost began to be higher than total income in 2021. Social Security’s cost has

exceeded its non-interest income since 2010. 

 1 The definitions of “benefit payments” and other terms appear in the Glossary.
3

Highlights

To illustrate the actuarial status of the Social Security program as a whole,

the operations of the OASI and DI Trust Funds are often shown on a combined basis as OASDI. However, by law, the two funds are separate entities

and therefore the combined fund operations and reserves are hypothetical.

The combined reserves are projected to decrease from $2,830 billion at the

beginning of 2023 to $590 billion at the end of 2032, the last year of the

short-range period.

The reserves of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds along with projected

program income are sufficient to cover projected program cost over the next

10 years under the intermediate assumptions. However, the ratio of reserves

to annual cost is projected to decline from 204 percent at the beginning of

2023 to 96 percent at the beginning of 2029 and remain below 100 percent

for the remainder of the 10-year short-range period. Because this ratio falls

below 100 percent by the end of the 10th projection year, the combined

OASI and DI Trust Funds fail the Trustees’ test of short-range financial adequacy. Considered separately, the OASI Trust Fund fails this test, but the DI

Trust Fund satisfies the test. For last year’s report, the combined reserves

were projected to be 211 percent of annual cost at the beginning of 2023 and

57 percent at the beginning of 2032. 

Long-Range Results (2023-97)

Under the Trustees’ intermediate assumptions, OASDI cost is projected to

exceed total income in 2023, and the dollar level of the hypothetical combined trust fund reserves declines until reserves become depleted in 2034,

one year earlier than projected in last year’s report. Figure II.D2 shows the

implications of reserve depletion for the combined OASI and DI Trust

Funds. Considered separately, the OASI Trust Fund reserves become

depleted in 2033, one year earlier than projected in last year’s report, and, as

in last year’s report, the DI Trust Fund reserves do not become depleted

within the 75-year long-range projection period.1

The DI program continued to have low levels of disability applications and

benefit awards through 2022. Disability applications have declined substantially since 2010, and the total number of disabled-worker beneficiaries in

current payment status has been falling since 2014. For this report, disability

applications are assumed to rise gradually from current low levels, resulting

 1 If the OASI Trust Fund reserves were to become depleted in 2033 as is currently projected, the operations

of the hypothetical combined OASI and DI Trust Funds would not reflect the aggregated operation of the

OASI Trust Fund and the DI Trust Fund because part of the OASI benefits could not be paid without a

change in the law. The values shown for the hypothetical combined trust funds assume the law will have

been changed to permit the transfer of resources between funds as needed.
Overview

4

in a rise in the age-sex-adjusted disability incidence rate to an ultimate rate of

4.8 per thousand exposed by the end of the short-range projection period. 

OASDI cost has been generally increasing much more rapidly than noninterest income since 2008 and is projected to continue to do so through

about 2040. In this period, the retirement of the baby-boom generation is

increasing the number of beneficiaries much faster than the increase in the

number of covered workers, as subsequent lower-birth-rate generations

replace the baby-boom generation at working ages. Between about 2040 and

2055, OASDI cost and non-interest income are projected to generally

increase at more similar rates as the cost rate (the ratio of program cost to

taxable payroll) roughly stabilizes, reflecting the return to birth rates above

2 children per woman between 1990 and 2008. Between 2055 and 2078,

OASDI cost is projected to grow significantly faster than income because of

the period of historically low birth rates starting with the recession of

2007-09. From 2078 to 2097, cost is projected to grow somewhat slower

than income, as birth rates are assumed to return to a level of 2 children per

woman for 2056 and thereafter.

Over the 75-year long-range period 2023-97, the projected OASDI annual

cost rate increases from 14.53 percent of taxable payroll for 2023 to

18.50 percent for 2078, and then decreases generally to 17.75 percent for

2097. The projected cost rate for 2097 is 4.35 percent of taxable payroll

more than the projected income rate (the ratio of non-interest income to taxable payroll) for 2097. For last year’s report, projected OASDI cost for 2097

was 17.65 percent, or 4.26 percent of payroll more than the annual income

rate for that year. Expressed in relation to the projected gross domestic product (GDP), OASDI cost generally rises from 5.2 percent of GDP for 2023 to

a peak of about 6.3 percent for 2076, and then declines to 6.0 percent by

2097.

The actuarial deficit is 3.61 percent of taxable payroll for the 75-year projection period through 2097, increased from 3.42 percent of taxable payroll for

the 75-year projection period through 2096 in last year’s report. The closelyrelated open-group unfunded obligation for OASDI is 3.42 percent of taxable

payroll over the 75-year projection period through 2097, increased from

3.24 percent of payroll over the 75-year projection period through 2096 in

last year’s report. The open-group unfunded obligation for OASDI is

$22.4 trillion in present value over the 75-year projection period through

2097 and is $2.0 trillion more than the measured level of $20.4 trillion over

the 75-year projection period through 2096 in last year’s report. The actuarial

deficit rounds to 1.3 percent and the unfunded obligation rounds to

1.2 percent of GDP over the 75-year projection period through 2097, compared to 1.2 percent for the actuarial deficit and 1.1 percent for the unfunded
5

Highlights

obligation over the 75-year projection period through 2096 in last year’s

report.

If the assumptions, methods, starting values, and the law had all remained

unchanged, the actuarial deficit would have increased to 3.48 percent of taxable payroll, and the unfunded obligation would have risen to 3.29 percent of

taxable payroll and $21.2 trillion in present value due to the change in the

valuation date and the extension of the valuation period through an additional year, 2097. The actuarial deficit increased significantly in this year’s

report primarily due to recent economic experience and changes in near-term

economic assumptions, as described in detail in section IV.B.6 of this report.

In particular, the level of potential GDP is assumed to be about 0.9 percent

lower than the level estimated in last year’s report for 2020, widening to

about 3.0 percent lower by 2026 and for all years thereafter. This shift was

made as the Trustees lowered the levels of GDP and total economy labor

productivity in response to recent economic developments, including higherthan-expected inflation rates and lower-than-expected output growth.

To illustrate the magnitude of the 75-year actuarial deficit, consider that for

the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds to remain fully solvent throughout

the 75-year projection period ending in 2097: (1) revenue would have to

increase by an amount equivalent to an immediate and permanent payroll tax

rate increase of 3.44 percentage points1 to 15.84 percent beginning in January 2023; (2) scheduled benefits would have to be reduced by an amount

equivalent to an immediate and permanent reduction of 21.3 percent applied

to all current and future beneficiaries effective in January 2023, or

25.4 percent if the reductions were applied only to those who become initially eligible for benefits in 2023 or later; or (3) some combination of these

approaches would have to be adopted. 

If substantial actions are deferred for several years, the changes necessary to

maintain Social Security solvency would be concentrated on fewer years and

fewer generations. Significantly larger changes would be necessary if action

is deferred until the combined trust fund reserves become depleted in 2034.

For example, maintaining 75-year solvency through 2097 with changes that

begin in 2034 would require: (1) an increase in revenue by an amount equivalent to a permanent 4.15 percentage point payroll tax rate increase to

16.55 percent starting in 2034, (2) a reduction in scheduled benefits by an

 1 The 3.44 percentage point increase in the payroll tax rate required to achieve 75-year solvency through

2097 differs somewhat from the 3.61 percent actuarial deficit. This is primarily because the rate increase

required to achieve 75-year solvency reflects a zero trust fund reserve at the end of the period in 2097,

whereas the 3.61 percent actuarial deficit incorporates an ending trust fund reserve equal to one year’s cost.

While such an increase in the payroll tax rate would cause some behavioral changes in earnings and ensuing

changes in benefit levels, such changes are not included in these calculations because they are assumed to

have roughly offsetting effects on OASDI actuarial status over the 75-year long-range period as a whole.
Overview

6

amount equivalent to a permanent 25.2 percent reduction in all benefits starting in 2034, or (3) some combination of these approaches.

Conclusion

Under the intermediate assumptions, the projected hypothetical combined

OASI and DI Trust Fund asset reserves become depleted and unable to pay

scheduled benefits in full on a timely basis in 2034. At the time of depletion

of these combined reserves, continuing income to the combined trust funds

would be sufficient to pay 80 percent of scheduled benefits. The OASI Trust

Fund reserves are projected to become depleted in 2033, at which time OASI

income would be sufficient to pay 77 percent of OASI scheduled benefits. DI

Trust Fund asset reserves are not projected to become depleted during the

75-year period ending in 2097. 

Lawmakers have a broad continuum of policy options that would close or

reduce Social Security's long-term financing shortfall. Estimates for many

such policy options are available at ssa.gov/OACT/solvency/provisions/. 

The Trustees recommend that lawmakers address the projected trust fund

shortfalls in a timely way in order to phase in necessary changes gradually

and give workers and beneficiaries time to adjust to them. Implementing

changes sooner rather than later would allow more generations to share in the

needed revenue increases or reductions in scheduled benefits. Social Security

will play a critical role in the lives of 67 million beneficiaries and

180 million covered workers and their families during 2023. With informed

discussion, creative thinking, and timely legislative action, Social Security

can continue to protect future generations.
7

Calendar Year 2022 Operations

B. TRUST FUND FINANCIAL OPERATIONS IN 2022

Table II.B1 shows the income, cost, and asset reserves for the OASI, the DI,

and the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds in calendar year 2022.

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

In 2022, net payroll tax contributions accounted for 90.6 percent of total trust

fund income. Net payroll tax contributions consist of taxes paid by employees, employers, and the self-employed on earnings covered by Social Security. These taxes are paid on covered earnings up to a specified maximum

annual amount, which was $147,000 in 2022. Table II.B2 shows the payroll

tax rates for 2022. 

Interest earned on invested trust fund asset reserves accounted for

5.4 percent of OASI and DI combined trust fund income in 2022. Revenue

from subjecting up to 50 percent of Social Security benefits to Federal personal income taxation for beneficiaries with income (including half of beneTable II.B1.—Summary of 2022 Trust Fund Financial Operations

[In billions]

OASI DI OASDI

Asset reserves at the end of 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $2,752.6 $99.4 $2,852.0

Total income in 2022a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

a Includes $0.2 billion in reimbursements from the General Fund of the Treasury and less than $50 million in

gifts. See section III.A for details.

1,056.7 165.1 1,221.8

Net payroll tax contributionsb . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

b Includes adjustments for prior calendar years. 

945.9 160.7 1,106.6

Interest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63.5 2.8 66.4

Taxation of benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.1 1.6 48.6

Total cost in 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,097.5 146.5 1,243.9

Benefit payments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,088.1 143.6 1,231.7

Administrative expenses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0 2.7 6.7

Railroad Retirement financial interchange . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 .2 5.5

Net increase in asset reserves in 2022 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -40.7 18.6 -22.1

Asset reserves at the end of 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,711.9 118.0 2,829.9

Table II.B2.—Payroll Tax Contribution Rates for 2022

[In percent]

OASI DI OASDI

Payroll tax contribution rate for employees. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 0.9 6.2

Payroll tax contribution rate for employers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 .9 6.2

Payroll tax contribution rate for self-employed persons . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.6 1.8 12.4
Overview

8

fits and all non-taxable interest received) exceeding specified levels

accounted for 4.0 percent of OASDI income.

The Department of the Treasury invests all trust fund income in interestbearing securities issued by the U.S. Government. In 2022, the combined

trust fund reserves (the excess of all past income over all past cost) earned

interest at an effective annual rate of 2.4 percent. 

Retirement, survivor, and disability benefits accounted for 99.0 percent of

OASI and DI combined trust fund cost in 2022. The expenses for administering the Social Security program were 0.5 percent of total cost. The net payment to the Railroad Retirement Social Security Equivalent Benefit Account

from the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds accounted for 0.4 percent of

total OASDI cost. 

Trust fund reserves provide the basis for paying benefits. Combined trust

fund reserves decreased by $22.1 billion during 2022 because income to the

combined funds, including interest earned on trust fund reserves, was less

than total cost. In last year’s report, combined reserves were projected to

decrease by $46.8 billion in 2022. At the end of 2022, the combined reserves

of the OASI and the DI Trust Funds were $2,829.9 billion, or 204 percent of

estimated cost 1 for 2023. In comparison, the combined reserves at the end of

2021 were 229 percent of actual cost for 2022.

 1 Estimated cost is based on the intermediate set of assumptions.
9

Future Assumptions

C. ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE

The future income and cost of the OASI and DI Trust Funds will depend on

many factors, including the size and characteristics of the population receiving benefits, the level of monthly benefit amounts, the size of the workforce,

and the level of covered workers’ earnings. These factors will depend in turn

on future birth rates, death rates, immigration, marriage and divorce rates,

retirement-age patterns, disability incidence and termination rates, employment rates, productivity gains, wage increases, inflation, interest rates, and

many other demographic, economic, and program-specific factors.

The Trustees set key demographic, economic, and programmatic assumptions for three alternative scenarios. The intermediate assumptions reflect the

Trustees’ best estimates of future experience. Therefore, most of the results

presented in this overview indicate outcomes under the intermediate assumptions only. Any projection of the future is, of course, uncertain. For this reason, results are also presented under low-cost and high-cost alternatives to

provide a range of possible future experience. The actual future costs are

unlikely to be as extreme as those portrayed by the low-cost or high-cost projections. A separate section on the uncertainty of the projections, beginning

on page 19, highlights the implications of these alternative scenarios.

The Trustees reexamine the assumptions each year in light of recent experience and new information. This annual review helps to ensure that the Trustees’ assumptions provide the best estimate of future possibilities.

There are several important assumptions about near-term growth rates and

parameter levels that have significant effects over both the short-range

(10-year) and long-range (75-year) projection periods. The most significant

change in the results presented in this year’s report derives from a change in

the assumed levels of productivity and GDP in the first several years of the

projection. Section IV.B.6 provides additional details about this change. 

For each of the three alternative scenarios, Table II.C1 presents key demographic, economic, and programmatic assumptions used for projections

beyond the tenth projection year.
Overview

10

Table II.C1.—Key Assumptionsa and Summary Measures 

for the Last 65 Years of the Long-Range (75-Year) Projection Period

Assumption Intermediate Low-cost High-cost

Demographic:

Average annual total fertility rate (children per woman)b . . . . . . 1.99 2.19 1.69

Average annual percentage reduction in total age-sex-adjusted 

death rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .74 .28 1.24

Average annual net lawful permanent resident (LPR) immigration 

(in thousands) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 788 1,000 595

Average annual net other-than-LPR immigration 

(in thousands) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 457 683 234

Economic:

Average annual percentage change in:

Productivity (total U.S. economy) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.63 1.93 1.33

Average wage in covered employment (nominal) . . . . . . . . . . 3.56 4.79 2.35

Average wage in covered employment (real). . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.14 1.74 .54

Consumer Price Index (CPI-W) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.40 3.00 1.80

Unemployment rate (percent, age-sex-adjusted) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 3.5 5.5

Annual trust fund real interest rate (percent) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.8 1.8

Programmatic:

Average annual disability incidence rate (per 1,000 exposed, agesex-adjusted) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 3.8 5.8

Average annual disability recovery rate (per 1,000 beneficiaries, 

age-sex-adjusted). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.4 12.5 8.3

a See chapter V for details, including historical and projected values.

b The ultimate total fertility rate is 2.00 for the intermediate assumptions, 2.20 for the low-cost assumptions,

and 1.70 for the high-cost assumptions. The ultimate rate is reached on a cohort basis over the lifetime of

girls attaining age 14 in 2021 and later, so that the ultimate rate on an annual (or period) basis is reached in

2056. See section V.A.1 for additional details.
11

Future Financial Status

D. PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE FINANCIAL STATUS

Short-Range Actuarial Estimates

For the short-range period (2023 through 2032), the Trustees measure financial adequacy using trust fund ratios, which compare projected asset reserves

at the beginning of a year to projected program cost for the year. Maintaining

a trust fund ratio of 100 percent or more—that is, reserves at the beginning

of a year at least equal to projected cost for the year—is a good indication

that the trust fund can cover most short-term contingencies. The Trustees'

test of short-range financial adequacy is met if under the intermediate

assumptions (1) the estimated trust fund ratio is at least 100 percent at the

beginning of the period and remains at or above 100 percent throughout the

10-year short-range period (from the beginning of 2023 through the end of

2032, which is indicated by the trust fund ratio at the beginning of 2033) or

(2) the ratio is initially less than 100 percent, but reaches at least 100 percent

within five years and remains at or above 100 percent throughout the remainder of the 10-year short-range period. 

The projected trust fund ratio under the intermediate assumptions for the

OASI Trust Fund declines to 91 percent by the beginning of 2029 and

remains below 100 percent for the remainder of the short-range period.

Therefore, OASI fails the test of short-range financial adequacy. 

The DI Trust Fund satisfies the test of short-range financial adequacy

because the trust fund ratio, while below 100 percent at the beginning of the

projection period, reaches 100 percent within five years and stays above

100 percent throughout the remainder of the 10-year period. The DI trust

fund ratio is estimated to be 77 percent at the beginning of 2023. The projected DI trust fund ratio then increases to 107 percent by the beginning of

2026 and continues to increase for the remainder of the short-range period. 

On a combined basis, OASDI fails the test of short-range financial adequacy

because the OASDI trust fund ratio declines to 96 percent by the beginning

of 2029 and remains below 100 percent for the remainder of the short-range

period. Figure II.D1 shows that the trust fund ratio for the combined OASI

and DI Trust Funds declines steadily after 2010.

For this report, combined reserves are projected to decline in 2023, as they

did beginning in 2021, and to continue to decline throughout the remainder

of the short-range period. 
Overview

12

Long-Range Actuarial Estimates

The Trustees use three types of measures to assess the actuarial status of the

program over the long-range period (2023 through 2097): (1) annual cashflow measures, including income rates, cost rates, and balances; (2) trust

fund ratios; and (3) summary measures such as actuarial balances and opengroup unfunded obligations. These measures are expressed as percentages of

taxable payroll, as percentages of gross domestic product (GDP), or in dollars. Appendix F also presents summary measures over the infinite horizon.

The infinite horizon values provide an additional indication of Social Security’s very-long-run financial condition.

The Trustees also apply a test of long-range close actuarial balance each

year. To satisfy the test, a trust fund must meet two conditions: (1) the trust

fund satisfies the test of short-range financial adequacy, and (2) the trust fund

ratio stays above zero throughout the 75-year projection period, such that

benefits would be payable in a timely manner throughout the period. Under

the intermediate assumptions, the OASI Trust Fund and the combined OASI

 Figure II.D1.—Short-Range OASI and DI Combined Trust Fund Ratio

[Asset reserves at beginning of year as a percentage of annual cost for the year, 

under intermediate assumptions]

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032

Calendar year

Historical Projected

Minimum level for test of 

short-range financial 

adequacy is 100%
13

Future Financial Status

and DI Trust Funds fail the test of long-range close actuarial balance, while

the DI Trust Fund satisfies the test.

Annual Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances

Figure II.D2 illustrates the year-by-year relationship among OASDI income

(excluding interest), cost (including scheduled benefits), and expenditures

(including payable benefits) starting in 2000 and for the full 75-year projection period (2023 through 2097). The figure shows all values as percentages

of taxable payroll. Under the intermediate assumptions, demographic factors

by themselves cause the projected cost rate to rise rapidly for the next two

decades, level off somewhat in about 2040 through 2055, rise temporarily

between 2055 and 2078, and then decline somewhat through 2097. The projected income rate is relatively stable at about 13 percent throughout the

75-year period ending in 2097.

Annual OASDI cost has exceeded non-interest income every year beginning

with 2010. Cost is projected to continue to exceed non-interest income

throughout the 75-year valuation period. Cost is projected to exceed total

income in 2023, as it has each year beginning in 2021, and combined OASI

and DI Trust Fund reserves decline until they become depleted in 2034. After

trust fund reserve depletion, continuing income is sufficient to support

expenditures at a level of 80 percent of program cost for the rest of 2034,

declining to 74 percent for 2097. Figure II.D2 depicts OASDI operations as a

combined whole. However, under current law, the differences between

scheduled and payable benefits for OASI would begin in 2033, when the

OASI Trust Fund is projected to become depleted. Scheduled benefits equal

payable benefits for DI throughout the entire 75-year projection period,

because the DI Trust Fund is not projected to become depleted during the

period.
Overview

14

Figure II.D3 shows the estimated number of covered workers per OASDI

beneficiary. Figures II.D2 and II.D3 illustrate the inverse relationship

between cost rates and the number of workers per beneficiary. In particular,

the projected future increase in the cost rate reflects a projected decline in the

number of covered workers per beneficiary. There were about 2.8 workers

for every OASDI beneficiary in 2022. This ratio had been stable, remaining

between 3.2 and 3.4 from 1974 through 2008, and has generally declined

since then, initially due to the economic recession of 2007-09 and the beginning of a notable demographic shift. This shift causes the ratio of workers to

beneficiaries to decline, as workers of lower-birth-rate generations replace

workers of the baby-boom generation. The decline in the ratio slowed substantially between 2013 and 2019 as the recovery of the economy largely offset the demographic shift during that period. The ratio declined slightly in

2020 and then increased slightly by 2022, due to effects of the pandemicinduced recession and recovery on the number of workers. The underlying

demographic shift will continue to drive this ratio down over the next 10 to

15 years. The ratio of workers to beneficiaries reaches 2.3 by 2035 when the

baby-boom generation will have largely retired, and will generally decline

very gradually thereafter due to increasing longevity.

 Figure II.D2.—OASDI Income, Cost, and Expenditures as Percentages of Taxable Payroll

[Under intermediate assumptions]

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Calendar year

Cost: Scheduled and 

payable benefits

Non-interest Income

Payable benefits as percent

of scheduled benefits:

2023-33: 100%

2034: 80%

2097: 74%

Cost: Scheduled but not fully 

payable benefits

Expenditures: Payable benefits = income after 

combined trust fund reserve depletion in 2034
15

Future Financial Status

Another important way to look at Social Security’s future actuarial status is

to view its annual cost and non-interest income as a share of U.S. economic

output (GDP). As shown in figure II.D4, Social Security’s cost as a percent

of GDP is generally projected to grow from 5.2 percent in 2023 to a peak of

about 6.3 percent for 2076, and then decline to 6.0 percent by 2097. Social

Security’s non-interest income is projected to decrease from 4.8 percent of

GDP in 2023 to 4.7 percent in 2024, and then rise gradually to a peak of

about 4.8 percent by 2032. Thereafter, non-interest income as a percent of

GDP declines gradually, to about 4.5 percent for 2097.

 Figure II.D3.—Number of Covered Workers Per OASDI Beneficiary

[Under intermediate assumptions]

0

1

2

3

4

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Calendar year

Historical Projected
Overview

16

Trust Fund Ratios

The trust fund ratio is defined as the asset reserves at the beginning of a year

expressed as a percentage of the cost during the year. The trust fund ratio

thus represents the proportion of a year’s cost which could be paid solely

with the accumulated reserves at the beginning of the year. Table II.D1 displays the projected maximum trust fund ratios during the long-range period

for the OASI, DI, and combined OASI and DI funds. The table also shows

the year of maximum projected trust fund ratio during the long-range projection period (2023 through 2097) and the year of trust fund asset reserve

depletion. Trust fund ratios for OASI and combined OASI and DI are projected to decline from their current levels until reserve depletion. For DI, the

trust fund ratio is projected to rise to 267 percent of cost in 2043, and then

generally decline to 159 percent of cost by 2097.

 Figure II.D4.—OASDI Cost and Non-Interest Income as a Percentage of GDP

[Under intermediate assumptions]

Table II.D1.—Projected Maximum Trust Fund Ratios During the Long-Range Period

and Trust Fund Reserve Depletion Dates

[Under Intermediate Assumptions]

OASI DI OASDI

Maximum projected trust fund ratio (percent). . . . . . 220 267 204

Year attained. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2023 2043 2023

Projected year of trust fund reserve depletion . . . . . . 2033 a

a The trust fund is not projected to become depleted during the 75-year period ending in 2097.

2034

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Calendar year

Non-interest Income

Historical Projected

Cost
17

Future Financial Status

Summary Measures

The actuarial balance is a summary measure of the program’s financial status

through the end of the 75-year valuation period. The actuarial balance measure includes the trust fund asset reserves at the beginning of the period, all

cost and income during the valuation period, and the cost of reaching a target

trust fund reserve of one year’s cost by the end of the period. Therefore, the

actuarial balance is essentially the difference between the present values of

income and cost from 1937 through the end of the valuation period,

expressed as a percentage of the taxable payroll for the 75-year valuation

period. A negative actuarial balance is called an actuarial deficit. The actuarial deficit represents the average amount of change in income or cost that is

needed throughout the valuation period in order to achieve actuarial balance. 

In this report, the actuarial deficit for the combined OASI and DI Trust

Funds under the intermediate assumptions is 3.61 percent of taxable payroll.

The actuarial deficit was 3.42 percent of payroll in the 2022 report. If the

assumptions, methods, starting values, and the law had all remained

unchanged from last year, the actuarial deficit would have increased to

3.48 percent of payroll solely due to advancing the valuation period by

1 year, from 2022 through 2096 for last year’s report to 2023 through 2097

for this year’s report. The actuarial deficit is 1.3 percent of GDP in this

year’s report, increased from 1.2 percent in last year’s report.

Another way to illustrate the projected financial shortfall of the OASDI program is to examine the cumulative present value of scheduled income less

cost. Figure II.D5 shows the present value of cumulative OASDI income less

cost from the inception of the program through each of the years from 2022

to 2097. A positive value represents the present value of trust fund reserves

at the end of the selected year. A negative value is the unfunded obligation

through the selected year. The asset reserves of the combined trust funds

were about $2.83 trillion at the end of 2022. The combined trust fund

reserves decline on a present value basis after 2022, but remain positive

through 2033. However, after 2033 this cumulative amount becomes negative in 2034, which means that the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds have

a net unfunded obligation through the end of each year after 2033. Through

the end of 2097, the combined funds have a present-value unfunded obligation of $22.4 trillion. If the assumptions, methods, starting values, and the

law had all remained unchanged from last year, the unfunded obligation in

this year’s report would have risen to about $21.2 trillion due to the change

in the valuation date and the extension of the valuation period through an

additional year, 2097. 
Overview

18

This unfunded obligation through 2097 represents 3.42 percent of taxable

payroll for 2023 through 2097 (increased from an unfunded obligation

through 2096 of 3.24 percent of taxable payroll for 2022 through 2096 in last

year’s report) and 1.2 percent of GDP over the 75-year valuation period ending in 2097 (increased from 1.1 percent of GDP over the 75-year period ending in 2096 in last year’s report). The unfunded obligation as a share of

taxable payroll over the period (3.42 percent) and the actuarial deficit

(3.61 percent) are similar measures, but differ because the actuarial deficit

includes the cost of having an ending trust fund reserve equal to one year’s

cost.

Figures II.D2, II.D4, and II.D5 show that the program’s actuarial status will

deteriorate throughout the projection period if current law is not altered.

Negative annual balances and increasing cumulative shortfalls toward the

end of the 75-year period provide an indication of the additional change that

will be needed by that time in order to maintain solvency beyond 75 years.

Consideration of summary measures alone for a 75-year period can lead to

incorrect perceptions and to policy prescriptions that do not achieve sustainable solvency.1

 1 Sustainable solvency for the financing of the program under a specified set of assumptions has been

achieved when the projected trust fund ratio is positive throughout the 75-year projection period and is either

stable or rising at the end of the period.
19

Future Financial Status

Appendix F presents summary measures over the infinite horizon. The

infinite horizon values provide an additional indication of Social Security’s

actuarial status extending indefinitely into the future, but results are subject

to much greater uncertainty. Extending the horizon beyond 75 years

increases the measured unfunded obligation. Through the infinite horizon,

the unfunded obligation, or shortfall, is equivalent to 4.6 percent of future

taxable payroll or 1.4 percent of future GDP.

Uncertainty of the Projections

Significant uncertainty surrounds the intermediate assumptions. The Trustees

use several methods to help illustrate that uncertainty.

A first approach uses alternative scenarios reflecting intermediate (alternative II), low-cost (alternative I) and high-cost (alternative III) sets of assumptions. The intermediate alternative represents the Trustees’ best estimates of

future experience. The low-cost alternative includes a higher ultimate total

fertility rate, slower improvement in mortality, higher real wage growth, a

higher ultimate real interest rate, a higher ultimate annual change in the CPI,

 Figure II.D5.—Cumulative Scheduled OASDI Income Less Cost,

From Program Inception Through Years 2022-2097

[Present value as of January 1, 2023, in trillions, under intermediate assumptions]

-$24

-$22

-$20

-$18

-$16

-$14

-$12

-$10

-$8

-$6

-$4

-$2

$0

$2

$4

2022 2037 2052 2067 2082 2097

Ending year of accumulation

Unfunded 

obligation

(negative)

Trust fund 

reserves

(positive)

2034
Overview

20

and a lower unemployment rate. The high-cost alternative, in contrast,

includes a lower ultimate total fertility rate, more rapid improvement in mortality, lower real wage growth, a lower ultimate real interest rate, a lower

ultimate annual change in the CPI, and a higher unemployment rate. These

alternatives are not intended to suggest that all parameters would be likely to

differ from the intermediate values in the specified directions, but are

intended to illustrate the effect of clearly defined scenarios that are, on balance, very favorable or very unfavorable for the program’s actuarial status.

Actual future costs are unlikely to be as extreme as those portrayed by the

low-cost or high-cost projections. The method for constructing the low-cost

and high-cost projections does not lend itself to estimating the probability

that actual experience will lie within or outside the range they define.

Figure II.D6. shows the projected trust fund ratios for the combined OASI

and DI Trust Funds under the intermediate, low-cost, and high-cost assumptions. The figure indicates that the combined trust funds are projected to

become depleted in 2034 under the intermediate alternative and in 2031

under the high-cost alternative. Under the low-cost alternative, trust fund

reserves are projected to become depleted in 2067, but the trust funds would

have sufficient income by the end of 2092 to permit full payment of scheduled benefits thereafter and also to pay in arrears the temporary shortfalls

between 2067 and 2092.

 Figure II.D6.—Long-Range OASI and DI Combined Trust Fund Ratios Under 

Alternative Scenarios

[Asset reserves as a percentage of annual cost]

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Calendar year

Historical Projected

III II I
21

Future Financial Status

Figure II.D7 shows the projected trust fund ratios separately for OASI and

DI Trust Funds under the intermediate, low-cost, and high-cost assumptions.

The figure indicates that the OASI reserves are projected to become depleted

in 2033 under the intermediate alternative, in 2039 under the low-cost alternative, and in 2031 under the high-cost alternative. The DI reserves are projected to become depleted in 2036 under the high-cost alternative, and are

not projected to become depleted under the low-cost and intermediate alternatives. This figure illustrates that OASI reserves are expected to become

depleted much sooner than DI reserves, and potentially within the next

10 years.

Appendix D of this report presents a second approach using long-range sensitivity analysis for the OASDI program. By varying one parameter at a time,

sensitivity analysis provides a second approach for illustrating the uncertainty surrounding projections into the future.

A third approach uses 5,000 independently generated stochastic simulations

that reflect randomly assigned annual values and central tendencies for most

of the key parameters. These simulations produce a distribution of projected

outcomes and corresponding probabilities that future experience will fall

 Figure II.D7.—Long-Range OASI and DI Trust Fund Ratios

[Asset reserves as a percentage of annual cost]

0%

200%

400%

600%

800%

1,000%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Calendar year

OASI

DI

Historical Projected

II

I

I

II

III
Overview

22

within or outside a given range. The results of the stochastic simulations, discussed in more detail in appendix E, suggest that trust fund reserve depletion

(the point at which reserves are insufficient to pay scheduled benefits in full

and on time) is very likely before mid-century. In particular, figure II.D8

suggests that based on these stochastic simulations, trust fund reserves will

become depleted with 95-percent confidence between 2031 and 2040. In last

year’s report, this range was between 2031 and 2043. After depletion relatively early in the 75-year projection period, the trust funds are projected not

to have sufficient income through 2097 to permit full and timely payment of

scheduled benefits.

The stochastic results suggest that trust fund ratios as high as the low-cost

alternative or as low as the high-cost alternative are very unlikely. 

Changes From Last Year’s Report

The projected long-range OASDI actuarial deficit increased from

3.42 percent of taxable payroll for last year’s report to 3.61 percent of taxable payroll for this year’s report. The change in the valuation date and the

extension of the 75-year projection period for an additional year, 2097,

 Figure II.D8.—Long-Range OASI and DI Combined Trust Fund Ratios 

From Stochastic Modeling

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

2023 2033 2043 2053 2063 2073 2083 2093

Calendar year

50%

97.5%

2.5%

90%

10%
23

Future Financial Status

would have by itself increased the actuarial deficit to 3.48 percent. Changes

in law, methods, starting values, and assumptions combined to increase the

actuarial deficit by an additional 0.13 percent of taxable payroll. This

increase is mainly attributable to a change in the assumptions for the levels

of productivity and GDP in the first several years of the projection. For this

year’s report, the Trustees assume that the level of potential GDP was about

0.9 percent lower than the level estimated in last year’s report for 2020, widening to about 3.0 percent lower by 2026 and for all years thereafter. This

shift was made as the Trustees lowered the levels of GDP and total economy

labor productivity in response to recent economic developments, including

higher-than-expected inflation rates and lower-than-expected output growth.

For a detailed description of the specific changes identified in table II.D2,

see section IV.B.6.

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Figure II.D9 compares this year’s projections of annual balances (non-interest income minus cost) to those in last year’s report. The annual balance for

2023 is higher (less negative) in this year’s report than it was in last year’s

report. The annual balances are lower (more negative) in this year’s report

for all years from 2024 through 2097. For the full 75-year projection period,

the annual balances are lower, on average, by 0.13 percentage point.

Table II.D2.—Reasons for Change in the 75-Year Actuarial Balance,

Based on Intermediate Assumptions

[As a percentage of taxable payroll]

Item OASI DI OASDI

Shown in last year’s report:

Income rate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.93 1.85 13.78

Cost rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.34 1.86 17.20

Actuarial balance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -3.41 -.01 -3.42

Changes in actuarial balance due to changes in:

Legislation / Regulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . a

a Between -0.005 and 0.005 percent of taxable payroll.

a a

Valuation periodb . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

b The change in the 75-year valuation period from last year’s report to this report means that the 75-year

actuarial balance now includes the relatively large negative annual balance for 2097. This change in the valuation period results in a larger long-range actuarial deficit. The actuarial deficit includes the trust fund

reserve at the beginning of the projection period.

-.05 -.01 -.05

Demographic data and assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . -.03 a -.03

Economic data and assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -.04 a -.04

Disability data and assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . a .01 .01

Methods and programmatic data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -.08 .02 -.06

Total change in actuarial balance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -.21 .02 -.19

Shown in this report:

Actuarial balance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -3.62 .01 -3.61

Income rate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.93 1.85 13.78

Cost rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.54 1.84 17.38
Overview

24

 Figure II.D9.—OASDI Annual Balances: 2022 and 2023 Trustees Reports

[As a percentage of taxable payroll, under the intermediate assumptions]

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Calendar year

2022 Report

2023 Report
25

Conclusion

E. CONCLUSION

The data and projections presented in this report continue to include the

Trustees’ best estimates of the future course of the population, the economy,

and all aspects of the OASDI program under current law. Now, more than 3

years after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the acute stage of the pandemic appears to be over, but the Trustees expect there will be residual

effects on the population and the economy for years to come. Since the

assumptions for last year’s report were set, the Trustees have reassessed their

expectations for the economy in light of recent developments, including

updated data on inflation and output, and have revised down the levels of

gross domestic product (GDP) and labor productivity by about 3 percent

over the projection period. Assumptions for growth are largely unchanged

after the first 10 years of the projection period. The intermediate (best estimate) assumptions for this report were set in December 2022. The Trustees

will continue to monitor developments and modify the projections in later

reports.

Under current law, the projected cost of Social Security generally increases

faster than projected income through about 2040 primarily because the ratio

of workers paying taxes to beneficiaries receiving benefits will decline as the

baby-boom generation continues to retire and is replaced at working ages

with subsequent lower birth-rate generations. The effects of the aging baby

boom and subsequent lower birth rates will have largely stabilized between

about 2040 and 2055, but annual cost is projected to grow significantly faster

than income between 2055 and 2078 due to the period of historically low

birth rates starting with the recession of 2007-09. Between 2078 and 2097,

cost is projected to grow somewhat slower than income, reflecting an

assumed return to a stable ultimate birth rate of 2 children per woman for

2056 and thereafter. Based on the Trustees’ intermediate assumptions, Social

Security’s cost exceeds total income in 2023, as it has beginning in 2021, and

remains higher throughout the remainder of the 75-year projection period. 

The OASI Trust Fund is projected to have sufficient reserves to pay full benefits on time until 2033. The DI Trust Fund is projected to have sufficient

reserves to pay full benefits throughout the 75-year projection period ending

in 2097. Legislative action will be needed to prevent OASI reserve depletion.

In the absence of such legislation, continuing income to the trust funds at the

time of reserve depletion would be sufficient to pay 77 percent of OASI benefits. 

Social Security’s combined trust funds are projected to cover full payment of

scheduled benefits on a timely basis until the trust fund reserves become
Overview

26

depleted in 2034. Full payment of benefits until depletion of the hypothetical

combined reserves in 2034 implicitly assumes that the law will have been

changed to permit the transfer of funds between OASI and DI as needed. At

the time of reserve depletion, projected continuing income to the combined

trust funds equals about 80 percent of the program cost. By 2097, continuing

income equals about 74 percent of the program cost.

The actuarial deficit for the combined trust funds under the intermediate

assumptions is 3.61 percent of taxable payroll for the 75-year period through

2097, increased (worsened) from the 3.42 percent deficit for the 75-year

period through 2096 in last year’s report. To illustrate the magnitude of the

deficit, consider that for the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds to remain

fully solvent throughout the 75-year projection period ending with 2097:

(1) revenue would have to be increased by an amount equivalent to an immediate and permanent payroll tax rate increase of 3.44 percentage points to

15.84 percent; (2) scheduled benefits would have to be reduced by an

amount equivalent to an immediate and permanent reduction of 21.3 percent

applied to all current and future beneficiaries through 2097, or 25.4 percent if

the reductions were applied only to those who become initially eligible for

benefits in 2023 or later; or (3) some combination of these approaches would

have to be adopted. If actions are deferred for several years, the changes necessary to maintain Social Security solvency through 2097 become concentrated on fewer years and fewer generations.

If lawmakers design legislative solutions only to eliminate the overall actuarial deficit without consideration of year-by-year financing, then a substantial

financial imbalance could remain for 2097, the end of the 75-year valuation

period. In that case, the long-range sustainability of program financing could

still be in doubt. Sustainable solvency for the financing of the program under

a specified set of assumptions is achieved when the projected trust fund ratio

is positive throughout the 75-year long-range period and is either stable or

rising at the end of the period. Making changes now that achieve sustainable

solvency could avoid the need for later legislative changes.

Lawmakers have a broad continuum of policy options that would close or

reduce Social Security's long-term financing shortfall. Estimates for many

such policy options are available at www.ssa.gov/OACT/solvency/

provisions/. Broadly speaking, the approaches that lawmakers can take

include increasing revenue from workers and employers by raising the tax

rate or the maximum level of taxable earnings, or by dedicating revenue

from other sources; lowering benefits for some or all beneficiaries by changing certain program parameters; or a combination of these approaches. There
27

Conclusion

are many variations on these options, including those that vary the timing,

magnitude, and other specifics of the changes under consideration.

The Trustees recommend that lawmakers address the projected trust fund

shortfalls in a timely way in order to phase in necessary changes gradually

and give workers and beneficiaries time to adjust to them. Implementing

changes sooner rather than later would allow more generations to share in the

needed revenue increases or reductions in scheduled benefits. Social Security

will play a critical role in the lives of 67 million beneficiaries and

180 million covered workers and their families during 2023. With informed

discussion, creative thinking, and timely legislative action, Social Security

can continue to protect future generations.

For further information related to the contents of this report, see the following websites:

 • www.ssa.gov/OACT/tr/2023/

 • www.ssa.gov/OACT/solvency/provisions/

 • www.cms.gov/OACT/TR/2023

 • home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/economic-policy/social-security-andmedicare-trustee-reports
Financial Operations and Legislative Changes

28

III. FINANCIAL OPERATIONS OF THE TRUST FUNDS AND

LEGISLATIVE CHANGES IN THE LAST YEAR

A. OPERATIONS OF THE OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS 

INSURANCE (OASI) AND DISABILITY INSURANCE (DI) TRUST 

FUNDS, IN CALENDAR YEAR 2022

This section presents detailed information on the operations of the OASI and

DI Trust Funds1 during calendar year 2022. Chapter IV provides projections

for calendar years 2023 through 2100.

1. OASI Trust Fund

Table III.A1 presents a statement of the income and cost of the Federal OldAge and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund in calendar year 2022, and of the

asset reserves in the fund at the beginning and end of the calendar year. As

shown in this table, total trust fund income in 2022 amounted to

$1,056.7 billion, while cost totaled $1,097.5 billion, resulting in a decrease in

trust fund reserves during 2022 of $40.7 billion.

Total income during calendar year 2022 included $950.3 billion in payroll

tax contributions. These contributions include initial appropriations of payroll taxes, made on an estimated basis, and adjustments to appropriations for

prior years to reflect actual tax income. The OASI fund paid the General

Fund $4.4 billion for the estimated amount of employee payroll-tax refunds,

partially offsetting these gross contributions. Employees who work for more

than one employer during a year and pay contributions on total earnings in

excess of the contribution and benefit base are eligible for such refunds. Net

payroll tax contributions were therefore $945.9 billion in 2022.

Net reimbursements from the General Fund of the Treasury amounted to

$183 million in 2022. As shown in the table, almost all of that amount came

from transfers based on Public Law 116-136, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief,

and Economic Security Act of 2020 (CARES Act). Section 4003(e) of this

act provided for loans to businesses and State and local governments to assist

in alleviating losses incurred as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. This

section further specified that a portion of proceeds from repayments of these

loans be transferred to the OASI Trust Fund.

Income to the OASI Trust Fund based on the taxation of OASI benefits

amounted to $47.1 billion in 2022. As first required by the 1983 Social Security Amendments, this income comes from two separate sources: (1) Federal

 1 See www.ssa.gov/oact/ProgData/fundsQuery.html.
29

Calendar Year 2022 Operations

income taxation on up to 50 percent of an individual’s or couple’s OASI benefits under certain circumstances, and (2) a tax withheld from the benefits

paid to certain nonresident alien beneficiaries. For the direct Federal income

tax portion, Treasury transfers estimated amounts to the OASI Trust Fund in

advance at the beginning of each calendar quarter. Treasury makes subsequent adjustments based on the actual amounts shown on annual income tax

records. There were no such adjustments made in 2022. The amount of

income from direct Federal income taxation on OASI benefits constituted

approximately 99 percent of income from benefit taxation. The remaining

one percent of the income from benefit taxation is the amounts withheld

from the benefits paid to nonresident aliens.

In 2022, the OASI Trust Fund earned $63.5 billion in net interest, which consisted of: (1) interest earned on the investments held by the trust fund,

(2) interest on adjustments in the allocation of administrative expenses

between the trust fund and the General Fund account for the Supplemental

Security Income program, (3) interest arising from the revised allocation of

administrative expenses among the trust funds, and (4) interest on certain

reimbursements to the trust fund.

The remaining income, about $18 thousand, consisted of gifts received under

the provisions authorizing the deposit of monetary gifts or bequests in the

trust funds.
Financial Operations and Legislative Changes

30

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Table III.A1.—Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Calendar Year 2022

[In millions]

Total asset reserves, December 31, 2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $2,752,636

Income:

Net payroll tax contributions:

Payroll tax contributionsa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

a Includes adjustments for prior calendar years.

$950,327

Payments from the General Fund of the Treasury for payroll tax contributions subject to refunda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -4,403

Net payroll tax contributionsa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 945,924

Reimbursements from the General Fund:

Transfer directed by P.L. 116-136 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183

Reduction in payroll tax contributions due to P.L. 111-312, P.L. 112-78, 

and P.L. 112-96a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . b

b Between -$0.5 and $0.5 million.

Payroll tax credits due to P.L. 98-21a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . b

Net General Fund reimbursementsa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183

Income based on taxation of benefit payments:

Withheld from benefit payments to nonresident aliens . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 262

All other, not subject to withholding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46,809

Total income from taxation of benefits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47,071

Investment income and interest adjustments:

Interest on investments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63,539

Interest adjustmentsc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

c Includes: (1) interest on adjustments in the allocation of administrative expenses between the trust fund and

the General Fund account for the Supplemental Security Income program, (2) interest arising from the revised

allocation of administrative expenses among the trust funds, and (3) interest on certain reimbursements to the

trust fund.

b

Total investment income and interest adjustments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63,539

Gifts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . b

Total income. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,056,718

Cost:

Benefit payments:

Monthly benefits and lump-sum death paymentsd . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

d Includes net reductions for the recovery of overpayments.

1,088,170

Reimbursement from the General Fund for unnegotiated checks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -53

Payment for costs of vocational rehabilitation services for disabled beneficiaries . 23

Net benefit paymentsd . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,088,140

Financial interchange with the Railroad Retirement “Social Security Equivalent 

Benefit Account” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,316

Administrative expenses:

Costs incurred by:

Social Security Administration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,376

Department of the Treasury . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 628

Offsetting miscellaneous receipts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -1

Demonstration projects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . —

Miscellaneous reimbursements from the General Fund e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

e Reimbursements for costs incurred in performing certain legislatively mandated activities not directly

related to administering the OASI program.

-5

Net administrative expenses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,999

Total cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,097,455

Net increase in asset reserves. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -40,737

Total invested assets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,711,919

Undisbursed balances f. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

f A negative balance represents a situation where the actual cash payments exceeded the amount of invested

securities of the OASI Trust Fund that were redeemed to make such payments. In this situation, future

redemption of additional invested securities will be required to pay for this shortfall.

-20

Total asset reserves, December 31, 2022 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,711,899
31

Calendar Year 2022 Operations

Of the $1,097.5 billion in total OASI cost in 2022, $1,088.1 billion was for

net benefit payments, including recovered overpayments, reimbursements

from the General Fund for unnegotiated checks, and the reimbursable costs

of vocational rehabilitation services.1 Net benefit payments increased by

9.6 percent from calendar year 2021 to calendar year 2022. This increase is

due primarily to: (1) an increase in the average number of beneficiaries

during the year and (2) an increase in the average monthly benefit amount.

The increase in the average benefit amount in 2022 was due in part to the

automatic cost-of-living benefit increase of 5.9 percent which became effective for December 2021 under the automatic-adjustment provisions in section

215(i) of the Social Security Act. In addition, new beneficiaries tend to have

higher monthly benefit amounts than previous beneficiary cohorts, because

their initial benefits are based on average wages, which tend to rise faster

than the cost of living.

The Railroad Retirement Act requires an annual financial interchange

between the Railroad Retirement program and the OASDI program. The purpose of the interchange is to put the OASI and DI Trust Funds in the same

financial position in which they would have been had railroad employment

always been covered directly by Social Security. The Railroad Retirement

Board and the Social Security Administration calculated an interchange of

$5.3 billion from the OASI Trust Fund to the Social Security Equivalent

Benefit Account for June 2022.

The remaining $4.0 billion of cost for the OASI Trust Fund was for net

administrative expenses. The Social Security Administration charges administrative expenses incurred to administer the OASI program directly to the

trust fund on an estimated basis. Periodically, as actual expenses are

recorded, adjustments are made to the allocations of administrative expenses

for prior periods. These adjustments affect the OASI Trust Fund, the

DI Trust Fund, the Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund, the Supplementary

Medical Insurance (SMI) Trust Fund, and the General Fund account for the

Supplemental Security Income program, and include appropriate interest

adjustments. As described earlier, the trust fund accounting records such

interest adjustments under investment income.

For 2022, the cost incurred by the Social Security Administration to administer the OASI program was 84 percent of OASI net administrative expenses.

The Social Security Administration charged such costs to the trust fund in

 1 Vocational rehabilitation services under the OASI program are furnished to disabled widow(er) beneficiaries and to those children of retired or deceased workers who receive benefits based on disabilities that

began before age 22. The trust funds reimburse the providers of such services only in those cases where the

services contributed to the successful rehabilitation of the beneficiary.
Financial Operations and Legislative Changes

32

the amount of $3.4 billion in 2022. In addition, the Department of the Treasury charged the trust fund $0.6 billion in 2022 for services provided in

administering the OASI program. A relatively small offset to administrative

expenses of $1 million in 2022 represents income from miscellaneous

receipts due to the trust fund, which may include refunds, penalties, fees, and

other receipts.

Finally, the General Fund of the Treasury makes net reimbursements for

administrative costs incurred by the Social Security Administration in performing certain legislatively mandated activities that are not directly related

to paying OASI benefits. These reimbursements include $3 million in costs

associated with union activities related to administering the OASI program

and $2 million in costs of providing information to participants in certain

pension plans in 2022. These miscellaneous reimbursements totaled

$5 million in 2022.

The asset reserves shown for the OASI Trust Fund at the end of calendar

year 2022 totaled $2,711.9 billion, consisting of $2,711.9 billion in U.S.

Government obligations and, as an offset, an extension of credit totaling

$20 million against securities to be redeemed in the first few days of the following year. The effective annual rate of interest earned by the reserves in

the OASI Trust Fund during calendar year 2022 was 2.3 percent, slightly

lower than the 2.4 percent earned during calendar year 2021. Table VI.A4,

presented in appendix A, shows a detailed listing of OASI Trust Fund holdings by type of security, interest rate, and year of maturity at the end of calendar years 2021 and 2022.

By law, the Department of the Treasury must invest trust fund reserves in

interest-bearing securities backed by the full faith and credit of the United

States Government. The securities currently held by the OASI Trust Fund are

entirely special issue securities sold by the Treasury only to the trust funds.

These special issues are of two types: short-term certificates of indebtedness

and longer-term bonds. Daily trust fund tax income is invested in the shortterm certificates of indebtedness which mature on the next June 30 following

the date of issue. The trust fund normally acquires long-term special-issue

bonds when special issue securities of either type mature on June 30 and

must be reinvested. The amount of long-term bonds acquired on June 30 is

equal to the amount of special issue securities maturing (including accrued

interest earnings), plus tax income for that day, less amounts required to meet

cost on that day.

Section 201(d) of the Social Security Act provides that the obligations issued

for purchase by the OASI and DI Trust Funds shall have maturities fixed
33

Calendar Year 2022 Operations

with due regard for the needs of the funds. Each year, bond purchases for

each trust fund are made on June 30, taking into account the projected

reserve depletion date in the most recently issued Trustees Report. The usual

practice has been to reinvest the maturing special issue securities, as of each

June 30, so that the values of the total portfolio of special issue securities

maturing in each of the next 15 years are approximately equal. However, as

of June 2022, the most recent projections in the 2022 Trustees Report indicated that the reserves in the OASI Trust Fund would become depleted

within 15 years. Therefore, the Department of the Treasury, in consultation

with the Chief Actuary of the Social Security Administration, selected the

amounts and maturity dates of the OASI special-issue bonds purchased on

June 30, 2022, so that the maturity dates of the total portfolio of special issue

securities would be spread evenly to the extent possible over the 12-year

period 2023 through 2034. The bonds purchased on that date have an interest

rate of 3.000 percent, reflecting the average market yield, as of the last business day of the prior month, on all of the outstanding marketable U.S. obligations that are due or callable more than 4 years in the future. Table III.A7

shows additional details on the investment transactions during 2022, including the amounts of bonds purchased on June 30, 2022.

2. DI Trust Fund

Table III.A2 presents a statement of the income and cost of the Federal Disability Insurance Trust Fund in calendar year 2022, and of the asset reserves

in the fund at the beginning and end of the calendar year.

Line entries in the DI statement are similar to those in the OASI statement.

The explanations of the OASI entries generally apply to DI as well.

Of the $165.1 billion in total income, $160.7 billion was net payroll tax contributions. 

Of the $146.5 billion of total cost, $143.6 billion was net benefit payments.

The total level of net benefit payments increased by 2.5 percent from calendar year 2021 to calendar year 2022, largely due to increases in average

monthly benefit amounts and the total amount of retroactive benefits, partially offset by a decrease in the average number of beneficiaries during the

year. DI non-interest income, and total income, exceeded total cost in 2022.
Financial Operations and Legislative Changes

34

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Table III.A2.—Operations of the DI Trust Fund, Calendar Year 2022

[In millions]

Total asset reserves, December 31, 2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $99,394

Income:

Net payroll tax contributions:

Payroll tax contributionsa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

a Includes adjustments for prior calendar years. 

$161,424

Payments from the General Fund of the Treasury for payroll tax contributions 

subject to refunda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -746

Net payroll tax contributionsa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160,678

Reimbursements from the General Fund:

Transfer directed by P.L. 116-136 —

Reduction in payroll tax contributions due to P.L. 111-312, P.L. 112-78, 

and P.L. 112-96a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . b

b Between -$0.5 and $0.5 million.

Payroll tax credits due to P.L. 98-21a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . b

Net General Fund reimbursementsa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . b

Income based on taxation of benefit payments:

Withheld from benefit payments to nonresident aliens . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

All other, not subject to withholding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,549

Total income from taxation of benefits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,553

Investment income and interest adjustments:

Interest on investments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,831

Interest adjustmentsc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

c Includes: (1) interest on adjustments in the allocation of administrative expenses between the trust fund and

the General Fund account for the Supplemental Security Income program, (2) interest arising from the

revised allocation of administrative expenses among the trust funds, and (3) interest on certain reimbursements to the trust fund.

2

Total investment income and interest adjustments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,833

Gifts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . b

Total income. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165,063

Cost:

Benefit payments:

Monthly benefitsd . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

d Includes net reductions for the recovery of overpayments.

143,475

Reimbursement from the General Fund for unnegotiated checks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -28

Payment for costs of vocational rehabilitation services for disabled beneficiaries . 120

Net benefit paymentsd . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143,567

Financial interchange with the Railroad Retirement “Social Security Equivalent 

Benefit Account” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156

Administrative expenses:

Costs incurred by:

Social Security Administration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,634

Department of the Treasury . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110

Offsetting miscellaneous receipts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . —

Demonstration projects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Miscellaneous reimbursements from the General Funde . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

e Reimbursements for costs incurred in performing legislatively mandated activities not directly related to

administering the DI program.

-3

Net administrative expenses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,747

Total cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146,470

Net increase in asset reserves. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18,594

Total invested assets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118,032

Undisbursed balancesf . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

f A negative balance represents a situation where the actual cash payments exceeded the amount of invested

securities of the DI Trust Fund that were redeemed to make such payments. In this situation, future redemption of additional invested securities will be required to pay for this shortfall.

-44

Total asset reserves, December 31, 2022 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117,988
35

Calendar Year 2022 Operations

During 2022, the reserves in the DI Trust Fund increased by $18.6 billion,

from $99.4 billion at the end of 2021 to $118.0 billion at the end of 2022.

This $118.0 billion consisted of $118.0 billion in U.S. Government obligations and, as an offset, an extension of credit totaling $44 million against

securities to be redeemed in the first few days of the following year. The

effective annual rate of interest earned by the asset reserves in the DI Trust

Fund during calendar year 2022 was 2.7 percent, slightly lower than the

2.8 percent earned during calendar year 2021. Table VI.A5 shows a detailed

listing of DI Trust Fund holdings by type of security, interest rate, and year

of maturity at the end of calendar years 2021 and 2022.

Section 201(d) of the Social Security Act provides that the Treasury securities issued for purchase by the OASI and DI Trust Funds shall have maturities fixed with due regard for the needs of the funds. Each year, bond

purchases for each trust fund are made on June 30, taking into account the

projected reserve depletion date in the most recently issued Trustees Report.

The usual practice has been to reinvest the maturing special issue securities,

as of each June 30, so that the values of the securities maturing in each of the

next 15 years are approximately equal. Accordingly, the Department of the

Treasury, in consultation with the Chief Actuary of the Social Security

Administration, selected the amounts and maturity dates of the DI specialissue bonds purchased on June 30, 2022, so that the maturity dates of the

total portfolio of special issue securities would be evenly spread to the extent

possible over the 15-year period 2023-37. The bonds purchased have an

interest rate of 3.000 percent, reflecting the average market yield, as of the

last business day of the prior month, on the outstanding marketable U.S.

obligations that are due or callable more than 4 years in the future. Table

III.A7 shows details on investment transactions during 2022.

3. OASI and DI Trust Funds, Combined

Table III.A3 presents a statement of the operations of the OASI and DI Trust

Funds on a hypothetical combined basis.1 The entries in this table represent

the sums of the corresponding values from tables III.A1 and III.A2. The two

preceding subsections that cover OASI and DI provide a description of the

nature of these income and cost transactions.

 1 The OASI and DI Trust Funds are distinct legal entities which operate independently. To illustrate the

actuarial status of the program as a whole, the fund operations are often combined on a hypothetical basis.
Financial Operations and Legislative Changes

36

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Table III.A3.—Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, 

Calendar Year 2022

[In millions]

Total asset reserves, December 31, 2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $2,852,030

Income:

Net payroll tax contributions:

Payroll tax contributionsa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

a Includes adjustments for prior calendar years. 

$1,111,751

Payments from the General Fund of the Treasury for payroll tax contributions subject to refunda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -5,149

Net payroll tax contributionsa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,106,602

Reimbursements from the General Fund:

Transfer directed by P.L. 116-136 183

Reduction in payroll tax contributions due to P.L. 111-312, P.L. 112-78, 

and P.L. 112-96a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . b

b Between -$0.5 and $0.5 million.

Payroll tax credits due to P.L. 98-21a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . b

Net General Fund reimbursementsa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183

Income based on taxation of benefit payments:

Withheld from benefit payments to nonresident aliens . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 266

All other, not subject to withholding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48,358

Total income from taxation of benefits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48,624

Investment income and interest adjustments:

Interest on investments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66,370

Interest adjustmentsc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

c Includes: (1) interest on adjustments in the allocation of administrative expenses between the trust funds and

the General Fund account for the Supplemental Security Income program, (2) interest arising from the revised

allocation of administrative expenses among the trust funds, and (3) interest on certain reimbursements to the

trust funds.

2

Total investment income and interest adjustments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66,372

Gifts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . b

Total income. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,221,782

Cost:

Benefit payments:

Monthly benefits and lump-sum death paymentsd . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

d Includes net reductions for the recovery of overpayments.

1,231,646

Reimbursement from the General Fund for unnegotiated checks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -81

Payment for costs of vocational rehabilitation services for disabled beneficiaries . 143

Net benefit paymentsd . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,231,707

Financial interchange with the Railroad Retirement “Social Security Equivalent 

Benefit Account” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,471

Administrative expenses:

Costs incurred by:

Social Security Administration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,010

Department of the Treasury . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 738

Offsetting miscellaneous receipts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -1

Demonstration projects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Miscellaneous reimbursements from the General Funde . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

e Reimbursements for costs incurred in performing certain legislatively mandated activities not directly

related to administering the OASI and DI programs.

-8

Net administrative expenses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,746

Total cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,243,925

Net increase in asset reserves. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -22,143

Total invested assets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,829,950

Undisbursed balancesf . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

f A negative balance represents a situation where the actual cash payments exceeded the amount of invested

securities of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds that were redeemed to make such payments. In this situation, future redemption of additional invested securities will be required to pay for this shortfall.

-63

Total asset reserves, December 31, 2022 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,829,887
37

Calendar Year 2022 Operations

Table III.A4 compares estimates of total income and total cost for calendar

year 2022 from the intermediate projections in the 2018 through 2022 Trustees Reports to the corresponding actual amounts for 2022.

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

A number of factors contribute to differences between estimates and subsequent actual amounts, including: (1) actual values for key demographic, economic, and other variables that differ from earlier assumed levels; and

(2) legislation that was enacted or other administrative initiatives that were

finalized after the Trustees completed their estimates. In addition, estimates

for the 2018 through 2020 Trustees Reports did not anticipate the pandemic

and recession, while the actual income and cost for 2022 do reflect the pandemic, contributing to these differences as well.

At the end of calendar year 2022, the OASDI program was providing

monthly benefits to about 66.0 million people. The OASI Trust Fund was

Table III.A4.—Comparison of Actual Calendar Year 2022 Trust Fund Operations

With Estimates Made in Prior Reports, Based on Intermediate Assumptionsa

[Amounts in billions]

a Percentage differences are calculated prior to rounding.

Total income b

b “Actual” income for 2022 reflects adjustments to payroll tax contributions for prior calendar years (see

appendix A for description of these adjustments). “Estimated” income also includes such adjustments, but on

an estimated basis.

Total cost

Amount

Difference

from actual

(percent) Amount

Difference

from actual

(percent)

OASI Trust Fund:

Estimate in 2018 report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1,060.7 0.4 $1,106.5 0.8

Estimate in 2019 report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,052.1 -.4 1,092.8 -.4

Estimate in 2020 report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,034.0 -2.1 1,082.3 -1.4

Estimate in 2021 report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,013.9 -4.1 1,072.5 -2.3

Estimate in 2022 report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,034.4 -2.1 1,096.2 -.1

Actual amount . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,056.7 — 1,097.5 —

DI Trust Fund:

Estimate in 2018 report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163.1 -1.2 169.2 15.5

Estimate in 2019 report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163.0 -1.3 159.2 8.7

Estimate in 2020 report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160.8 -2.6 155.4 6.1

Estimate in 2021 report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158.2 -4.1 153.6 4.8

Estimate in 2022 report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161.5 -2.2 146.4 c

c Between -0.05 percent and 0.05 percent.

Actual amount . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165.1 — 146.5 —

OASI and DI Trust Funds, combined:

Estimate in 2018 report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,223.7 .2 1,275.7 2.6

Estimate in 2019 report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,215.1 -.5 1,252.0 .6

Estimate in 2020 report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,194.8 -2.2 1,237.8 -.5

Estimate in 2021 report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,172.1 -4.1 1,226.1 -1.4

Estimate in 2022 report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,195.8 -2.1 1,242.7 -.1

Actual amount . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,221.8 — 1,243.9 —
Financial Operations and Legislative Changes

38

providing benefits to about 57.2 million people and the DI Trust Fund was

providing benefits to about 8.8 million people. The number of people receiving benefits from the OASI Trust Fund grew by 2.0 percent while the number of people receiving DI benefits fell by 4.1 percent during calendar year

2022. These changes are in large part due to the shifting age distribution of

the adult population, with the baby-boom generation (born in 1946-1965)

moving increasingly above age 62 for retired worker benefits, and above normal retirement age, where DI benefits are no longer applicable. Table III.A5

shows the estimated distributions of benefit payments in calendar years 2021

and 2022, by type of beneficiary, for each trust fund separately.

Note: Benefits are monthly benefits and lump-sum death payments. Components may not sum to totals

because of rounding.

Net administrative expenses of the OASI and DI Trust Funds in calendar

year 2022 totaled $6.7 billion, equal to 0.5 percent of total cost and 0.6 percent of total income. Table III.A6 shows corresponding percentages for each

trust fund separately and for OASDI as a whole for the last 5 years.

Table III.A5.—Distribution of Benefit Payments by Type of Beneficiary or Payment, 

Calendar Years 2021 and 2022

[Amounts in millions]

Calendar year 2021 Calendar year 2022

Amount

Percentage

of total Amount

Percentage

of total

Total OASDI benefit payments . . . . . . . . . . $1,133,164 100.0 $1,231,646 100.0

OASI benefit payments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 993,167 87.6 1,088,170 88.4

DI benefit payments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139,996 12.4 143,475 11.6

OASI benefit payments, total. . . . . . . . . . . . 993,167 100.0 1,088,170 100.0

Monthly benefits:

Retired workers and auxiliaries . . . . . . 861,873 86.8 947,071 87.0

Retired workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 822,440 82.8 906,826 83.3

Spouses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33,050 3.3 33,491 3.1

Children . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,384 .6 6,754 .6

Survivors of deceased workers. . . . . . . 131,057 13.2 140,870 12.9

Aged widows and widowers. . . . . . . 104,868 10.6 112,339 10.3

Disabled widows and widowers . . . . 2,233 .2 2,245 .2

Parents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 a

a Less than 0.05 percent.

19 a

Children . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22,445 2.3 24,674 2.3

Widowed mothers and fathers 

caring for child beneficiaries . . . . 1,492 .2 1,593 .1

Lump-sum death payments . . . . . . . . . . . 237 a 229 a

DI benefit payments, total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139,996 100.0 143,475 100.0

Disabled workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132,401 94.6 135,978 94.8

Spouses. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 465 .3 458 .3

Children . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,131 5.1 7,039 4.9
39

Calendar Year 2022 Operations

The acquisition and redemption of securities during calendar year 2022

changed the invested reserves of the OASI and DI Trust Funds. Table III.A7

presents investment transactions for each fund separately and combined.

Note: Investments are shown at par value. Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Table III.A6.—Administrative Expenses as a Percentage of Total Income and 

of Total Cost, Calendar Years 2018-2022

Calendar year 

OASI Trust Fund DI Trust Fund

OASI and DI

Trust Funds,

combined

Total

income

Total

cost

Total

income

Total

cost

Total

income

Total

cost

2018 . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.4 1.7 1.9 0.7 0.7

2019 . . . . . . . . . . . .4 .4 1.9 1.8 .6 .6

2020 . . . . . . . . . . . .4 .4 1.7 1.7 .6 .6

2021 . . . . . . . . . . . .4 .4 1.7 1.7 .6 .6

2022 . . . . . . . . . . . .4 .4 1.7 1.9 .6 .5

Table III.A7.—Trust Fund Investment Transactions, Calendar Year 2022

[In millions]

OASI

Trust Fund

DI

Trust Fund

OASI and DI

Trust Funds,

combined

Invested asset reserves, 

December 31, 2021a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

a Invested asset reserves differ from total asset reserves by the amount of undisbursed balances. See

tables VI.A4 and VI.A5 for details.

$2,752,688 $99,438 $2,852,126

Acquisitions:

Special issue securities:

Certificates of indebtedness . . . . . . . . . . . 1,018,446 162,972 1,181,418

Bondsb . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

b Purchased on June 30, 2022. The interest rate on these purchases was 3.000 percent.

189,931 26,381 216,311

Total acquisitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,208,377 189,352 1,397,729

Redemptions:

Special issue securities:

Certificates of indebtedness . . . . . . . . . . . 884,392 150,684 1,035,076

Bonds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 364,755 20,074 384,829

Total redemptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,249,147 170,758 1,419,905

Net increase in invested asset reserves . . . . . . -40,770 18,594 -22,176

Invested asset reserves, 

December 31, 2022a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,711,919 118,032 2,829,950
Financial Operations and Legislative Changes

40

B. CHANGES IN LAW AND POLICY AFFECTING SOCIAL 

SECURITY SINCE THE 2022 REPORT

Since the Trustees submitted the 2022 report to Congress, there have been no

changes in law, policy, or regulation that are expected to have significant

financial effects on the OASDI program. However, there have been a number

of notable regulatory and judicial developments related to immigration policy.

At the time of the 2022 report, the US Citizenship and Immigration Services

had paused processing of first-time applications under the Deferred Action

for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) policy but continued to process renewal

applications. Since then, there have been several regulatory and judicial

developments:

 • On August 30, 2022, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) published a final rule in the Federal Register, establishing regulations to

“preserve and fortify” the DACA program in full. 

 • On October 5, 2022, the US Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit

affirmed an earlier district court decision that had declared the DACA

policy unlawful. The appeals court returned the case to the district court

for further review of the DHS regulation.

 • On October 14, 2022, the district court issued an order extending the

pause in implementing the DACA final rule. As a result, DHS is currently prohibited from processing new DACA applications and related

employment authorizations.

Changes in DACA policy affect OASDI program operations because those

who apply for and receive deferred action status are eligible for work authorization, which leads to additional workers covered by the OASDI program,

increased payroll tax revenue, and subsequently increased benefit cost. The

estimates presented in last year’s report reflected the assumption that the

DACA program would be fully in effect by the middle of 2022, consistent

with the Administration’s intent. Because of the court challenges, the estimates in this year’s report incorporate an additional one-year delay in the

resumption of processing new applications, to the middle of 2023. This

change is estimated to have negligible financial effects on the OASDI program over both the short-range and long-range projection periods.

Sections IV.A.4 and IV.B.6 of this report provide further description of the

magnitude of effects on the financial status of the OASDI program.
41

Short-Range Estimates

IV. ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES

This chapter presents actuarial estimates of the future financial condition of

the Social Security program. These estimates show the income, cost, and

asset reserves or unfunded obligation of the OASI and DI Trust Funds: (1) in

dollars over the 10-year short-range period; and (2) as a percentage of taxable payroll, as a percentage of gross domestic product, and in present-value

dollars over the 75-year long-range period. In addition, the chapter discusses

a variety of measures of the adequacy of current program financing. This

report distinguishes between: (1) the cost (obligations) of the program, which

includes all past and future benefits scheduled under current law; and

(2) expenditures, which include actual payments for the past plus only the

portion of projected program cost that would be payable with the financing

provisions in current law.

This chapter presents the estimates and measures of trust fund financial adequacy for the short-range period (2023 through 2032) first, followed by estimates and measures of actuarial status for the long-range period

(2023 through 2097). Summary measures are also provided for trust fund

status over the infinite horizon. As described in chapter II of this report, these

estimates depend upon a broad set of demographic, economic, and programmatic factors. This chapter presents estimates under three sets of assumptions

to show a wide range of possible outcomes, because assumptions related to

these factors are subject to uncertainty. The intermediate set of assumptions,

designated as alternative II, reflects the Trustees’ best estimate of future

experience; the low-cost alternative I is significantly more optimistic and the

high-cost alternative III is significantly more pessimistic for the trust funds’

future financial outlook. The tables of this report show the intermediate estimates first, followed by the low-cost and high-cost estimates. Chapter V

describes these three sets of assumptions, along with the actuarial methods

used to produce the estimates. Appendix D and appendix E present two additional methods to illustrate the uncertainty of the projections. Appendix D

presents sensitivity analyses of the effects of variation in individual factors

and appendix E presents probability distributions generated by a stochastic

model.

A. SHORT-RANGE ESTIMATES

The Trustees consider the trust funds to be solvent at any point in time if the

funds can pay scheduled benefits in full on a timely basis. A standard measure for assessing solvency is the “trust fund ratio,” which is the reserves in a

fund at the beginning of a year (not including advance tax transfers)

expressed as a percentage of the cost during the year. A positive trust fund

ratio indicates that the trust fund was solvent at the end of the prior year. The
Actuarial Estimates

42

trust fund ratio represents the proportion of a year’s cost which the reserves

available at the beginning of that year can cover. The Trustees assume that a

trust fund ratio of 100 percent of annual program cost provides a reasonable

“contingency reserve.” Maintaining a reasonable contingency reserve is

important because the trust funds do not have borrowing authority. After

reserves are depleted, the trust funds would be unable to pay scheduled benefits in full on a timely basis if annual revenue were less than annual cost.

Unexpected events, such as severe economic recessions, can quickly diminish reserves. In such cases, a reasonable contingency reserve can maintain

the ability to pay scheduled benefits while giving lawmakers time to address

possible changes to the program.

The test of short-range financial adequacy applies to the OASI and DI Trust

Funds individually and combined on a hypothetical basis.1 If the estimated

trust fund ratio is at least 100 percent at the beginning of the projection

period, the test requires that it remain at or above 100 percent throughout the

10-year period. If the ratio is initially less than 100 percent, then it must

reach at least 100 percent within 5 years (without reserve depletion at any

time during this period) and then remain at or above 100 percent throughout

the remainder of the 10-year period. This test is applied using the estimates

based on the intermediate assumptions. If either trust fund fails this test, then

program solvency in the next 10 years is in question, and lawmakers should

take prompt action to improve short-range financial adequacy.

1. Operations of the OASI Trust Fund

This subsection presents projections, based on the assumptions described in

chapter V, of the operations and financial status of the OASI Trust Fund for

the period 2023 through 2032. These estimates assume that there are no further changes in the statutory provisions and regulations under which the

OASDI program currently operates beyond the changes since last year’s

report indicated in section III.B.2

Estimates of the OASI Trust Fund operations presented in table IV.A1 indicate that the asset reserves of the OASI Trust Fund are projected to decrease

in years 2023 through 2032 under all three sets of assumptions. Under the

intermediate and low-cost assumptions, asset reserves remain positive

through the end of the short-range period, but under the high-cost assumptions, asset reserves become depleted in the third quarter of 2031. Trust fund

ratios are similarly projected to decline throughout the 10-year projection

 1 The OASI and DI Trust Funds are distinct legal entities which operate independently. To illustrate the

actuarial status of the program as a whole, the fund operations are often combined on a hypothetical basis.

 2 The estimates shown in this subsection reflect 12 months of scheduled benefits in each year of the shortrange projection period. In practice, the actual payment dates have at times shifted over calendar year

boundaries as a result of the statutory requirement for early delivery of benefit payments when the normal

check delivery date is a Saturday, Sunday, or legal public holiday.
43

Short-Range Estimates

period under all three sets of assumptions. Based on the intermediate

assumptions, the reserves of the OASI Trust Fund drop below 100 percent of

annual cost during 2028, to a trust fund ratio of 91 percent at the beginning

of 2029, and remain below 100 percent for the remainder of the short-range

period. Consequently, the OASI Trust Fund fails the test of short-range

financial adequacy. See figure IV.A1 for an illustration of these results.

Table IV.A1.—Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Calendar Years 2018-2032a

[Dollar amounts in billions]

Calendar

year

Income Costb Asset Reservesb

Trust

fund

ratio at

start of

year Total c

Net payroll tax

contributionsd

GF

reimbursementse

Taxation of

benefitsdf Net

interest Total

 Scheduled

benefits

Administrative

costs

RRB

interchange

Net

increase

during

year

Amount

at end

of year

Historical data:

2018 . . . $831.0 $715.9 g $34.5 $80.7 $853.5 $844.9 $3.8 $4.8 -$22.4 $2797.9 330

2019 . . . 917.9 805.1 g 34.9 77.9 911.4 902.8 3.7 4.9 6.5 2,804.3 307

2020 . . . 968.3 856.0 g 39.0 73.3 961.0 952.4 3.7 4.8 7.4 2,811.7 292

2021 . . . 942.9 838.2 g 37.2 67.5 1,001.9 993.1 4.0 4.8 -59.1 2,752.6 281

2022 . . . 1,056.7 945.9 $0.2 47.1 63.5 1,097.5 1,088.1 4.0 5.3 -40.7 2,711.9 251

Intermediate:

2023 . . . 1,153.3 1,040.1 g 51.2 62.0 1,235.1 1,225.5 4.1 5.4 -81.7 2,630.2 220

2024 . . . 1,166.0 1,050.3 g 56.3 59.4 1,323.5 1,313.2 4.3 6.1 -157.5 2,472.6 199

2025 . . . 1,223.8 1,107.6 g 60.2 56.0 1,403.2 1,392.7 4.4 6.1 -179.4 2,293.2 176

2026 . . . 1,286.0 1,157.8 .2 74.6 53.4 1,486.1 1,475.3 4.5 6.3 -200.1 2,093.1 154

2027 . . . 1,341.3 1,209.9 g 80.7 50.8 1,571.1 1,560.0 4.7 6.4 -229.8 1,863.3 133

2028 . . . 1,396.6 1,263.0 g 86.9 46.7 1,661.5 1,650.2 4.8 6.5 -264.9 1,598.4 112

2029 . . . 1,451.4 1,316.8 g 93.8 40.7 1,754.5 1,742.9 5.0 6.6 -303.1 1,295.2 91

2030 . . . 1,505.5 1,370.7 g 101.5 33.3 1,849.3 1,837.4 5.1 6.7 -343.7 951.5 70

2031 . . . 1,560.9 1,427.4 g 109.6 23.8 1,945.0 1,932.9 5.3 6.8 -384.2 567.4 49

2032 . . . 1,613.2 1,482.7 g 118.4 12.0 2,041.5 2,029.1 5.5 6.9 -428.3 139.0 28

Low-cost:

2023 . . . 1,161.9 1,047.2 g 51.2 63.5 1,234.4 1,224.8 4.1 5.4 -72.4 2,639.5 220

2024 . . . 1,210.6 1,090.8 g 56.1 63.6 1,318.8 1,308.5 4.3 6.0 -108.2 2,531.2 200

2025 . . . 1,297.3 1,172.9 g 60.3 64.2 1,404.5 1,394.0 4.4 6.1 -107.1 2,424.1 180

2026 . . . 1,391.2 1,249.3 .2 74.9 66.8 1,493.8 1,483.0 4.6 6.2 -102.6 2,321.4 162

2027 . . . 1,478.1 1,326.4 g 81.4 70.2 1,586.2 1,575.0 4.9 6.3 -108.1 2,213.3 146

2028 . . . 1,568.2 1,407.3 g 88.2 72.8 1,684.9 1,673.4 5.1 6.4 -116.7 2,096.6 131

2029 . . . 1,660.7 1,490.7 g 95.5 74.4 1,787.4 1,775.5 5.4 6.6 -126.8 1,969.8 117

2030 . . . 1,756.2 1,576.6 g 103.9 75.7 1,893.2 1,880.8 5.6 6.7 -137.0 1,832.9 104

2031 . . . 1,856.8 1,667.5 g 112.8 76.5 2,001.5 1,988.8 5.9 6.8 -144.7 1,688.2 92

2032 . . . 1,957.7 1,759.2 g 122.5 75.9 2,112.4 2,099.4 6.1 7.0 -154.7 1,533.4 80
Actuarial Estimates

44

High-cost:

2023 . . . $1,137.3 $1,024.3 g $51.3 $61.7 $1,235.9 $1,226.3 $4.1 $5.4 -$98.6 $2,613.3 219

2024 . . . 1,116.7 1,003.1 g 56.8 56.9 1,334.8 1,324.4 4.3 6.1 -218.1 2,395.3 196

2025 . . . 1,167.7 1,056.0 g 60.9 50.8 1,419.9 1,409.3 4.3 6.3 -252.2 2,143.1 169

2026 . . . 1,217.1 1,096.5 $0.2 75.1 45.4 1,497.3 1,486.3 4.5 6.5 -280.1 1,863.0 143

2027 . . . 1,255.4 1,134.7 g 80.9 39.8 1,576.3 1,565.2 4.6 6.5 -320.9 1,542.1 118

2028 . . . 1,287.8 1,168.9 g 86.9 32.1 1,660.1 1,648.9 4.7 6.6 -372.3 1,169.8 93

2029 . . . 1,317.2 1,200.7 g 93.3 23.2 1,745.6 1,734.2 4.8 6.7 -428.4 741.4 67

2030 . . . 1,344.6 1,230.7 g 100.6 13.3 1,831.8 1,820.2 4.8 6.8 -487.2 254.2 40

2031 . . . h 1,261.4 g 108.1 h 1,918.1 1,906.3 4.9 6.8 h h 13

2032 . . . h 1,289.7 g 116.3 h 2,004.1 1,992.2 5.0 6.9 h hh

a The OASI Trust Fund reserves become depleted in the third quarter of 2031 under the high-cost assumptions. For

any period during which reserves would be depleted, scheduled benefits could not be paid in full on a timely basis,

income from taxing benefits would be less than would apply to scheduled benefits, and interest on trust fund reserves

would be negligible. Appendix A presents a detailed description of the components of income and cost, along with

complete historical values.

b Amounts for 2020 and 2021 are adjusted to include in 2021 operations those benefit payments regularly scheduled in

the law to be paid on January 3, 2021, which were actually paid on December 31, 2020 as required by the statutory

provision for early benefit payments when the normal delivery date is on a weekend or holiday. Such shifts in payments across calendar years occur periodically whenever January 3rd falls on a Sunday. In order to provide a consistent perspective on trust fund operations over time, all trust fund operations in each year reflect the 12 months of

benefits that are regularly scheduled for payment in that year. 

c Represents reserves at the beginning of a year (which are identical to reserves at the end of the prior year shown in

the “Amount at end of year” column) as a percentage of cost for the year. The trust fund ratio at the beginning of 2033

is projected to be 7 percent for the intermediate, and 69 percent for the low-cost assumptions.

d Includes adjustments for prior calendar years. For example, in June 2021, an unusually large negative adjustment to

payroll tax contributions in the amount of $30.4 billion was made because payroll tax revenue credited to the trust

fund in 2020 was based on estimates that did not anticipate effects of the pandemic and recession.

e Includes reimbursements from the General Fund of the Treasury to the OASI Trust Fund for: (1) the cost of payroll

tax credits provided to employees in 1984 and self-employed persons in 1984-89 by Public Law 98-21; and (2) payroll tax revenue forgone under the provisions of Public Laws 111-147, 111-312, 112-78, and 112-96. Also includes

transfers of a portion of proceeds from repayments of loans authorized under Public Law 116-136.

f Revenue from taxation of benefits is the amount that would be assessed on benefit amounts scheduled in the law.

g Between -$50 million and $50 million.

h When the fund reserves are depleted, values under current law would reflect permissible expenditures only, which

would be less than the full cost of paying scheduled benefits shown in this table.

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Table IV.A1.—Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Calendar Years 2018-2032a (Cont.)

[Dollar amounts in billions]

Calendar

year

Income Costb Asset Reservesb

Trust

fund

ratio at

start of

year Total c

Net payroll tax

contributionsd

GF

reimbursementse

Taxation of

benefitsdf Net

interest Total

 Scheduled

benefits

Administrative

costs

RRB

interchange

Net

increase

during

year

Amount

at end

of year
45

Short-Range Estimates

The estimated income shown in table IV.A1 increases annually under each

set of assumptions throughout the short-range projection period, with the

exception of a small decrease in 2024 for the high-cost alternative. The estimated increases in income result primarily from the projected increases in

OASDI taxable payroll. Employment increases in years 2023 through 2032

for all three alternatives, with the exception of small decreases in covered

employment in 2023 and 2024 for the high-cost alternative: the number of

covered workers increases under alternatives I, II, and III from 181 million

during calendar year 2022 to about 192 million, 188 million, and

184 million, respectively, in 2032.1 The total annual amount of taxable payroll increases in years 2023 through 2032 for each alternative. Total taxable

payroll increases from $9,069 billion in 2022 to $16,650 billion,

$14,023 billion, and $12,189 billion in 2032, on the basis of alternatives I, II,

and III, respectively.2 These increases in taxable payroll are due primarily to:

(1) projected increases in employment levels as the working-age population

increases; (2) trend increases in average earnings in covered employment

(reflecting both real growth and price inflation); (3) increases in the contribu-

 Figure IV.A1.—Short-Range OASI and DI Trust Fund Ratios

[Asset reserves as a percentage of annual cost]

 1 See table IV.B3.

 2 See table VI.G6.

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032

Calendar year

DI

OASI

Historical Projected

Minimumlevelfor 

test of short-range

financial adequacy

is 100%

I

II

III

I

II

III
Actuarial Estimates

46

tion and benefit base under the automatic-adjustment provisions; and

(4) growth in employment and average earnings.

Interest earnings contribute to the overall projected level of trust fund

income during this period. Interest income declines generally at a slow rate

under the intermediate assumptions and much faster under the high-cost

assumptions, and increases generally under the low-cost assumptions, due to

the net effects of changes in reserve levels and the patterns of projected interest rates. Under the intermediate assumptions, interest also declines as a

share of total OASI Trust Fund income reaching 1 percent of total trust fund

income for 2032, as compared to 6 percent for 2022.

Rising OASI cost from 2022 through 2032 reflects automatic benefit

increases each year after initial benefit eligibility and increases each year for

those becoming newly eligible based on rising average earnings levels, as

well as the upward trend in the number of beneficiaries. The steady growth

in the number of OASI beneficiaries in the past and the expected future

growth result both from the increase in the aged population and from the

increase in the proportion of the population that is insured for benefits.

The Treasury invests OASI income in financial securities, generally special

public-debt obligations of the U.S. Government. The revenue used to make

these purchases flows to the General Fund of the Treasury. The trust fund

earns interest on these securities, and the Treasury invests the proceeds from

maturing securities in new securities if not immediately needed to pay program costs. Program expenditures require the redemption of trust fund securities, generally prior to maturity, to cover the payments made by the General

Fund of the Treasury on behalf of the trust fund.

2. Operations of the DI Trust Fund

Table IV.A2 shows the projected operations and financial status of the DI

Trust Fund during calendar years 2023 through 2032 under the three sets of

assumptions, together with values for actual experience during 2018 through

2022. Non-interest income for DI dropped in 2019 from its level in 2018, due

to the temporary payroll tax rate reallocation from OASI to DI in 2016

through 2018. For 2022, non-interest income was higher than DI cost. Noninterest income increases generally throughout the short-range projection

period under each alternative, due to most of the same factors described previously for the OASI Trust Fund beginning on page 45. DI cost grows

steadily throughout the period under each alternative. Under the intermediate

and low-cost assumptions, DI reserves increase through 2032. Under the

high-cost assumptions, DI reserves increase through 2026 and then decline

through 2032. 
47

Short-Range Estimates

Table IV.A2.—Operations of the DI Trust Fund, Calendar Years 2018-2032a

[Dollar amounts in billions]

Calendar

year

Income Costb Asset Reservesb Trust

fund

ratio at

start of

year Total c

Net payroll tax

contributionsd

GF

reimbursementse

Taxation of

benefitsdf Net

interest Total

 Scheduled

benefits

Administrative

costs

RRB

interchange

Net

increase

during

year

Amount

at end

of year

Historical data:

2018 . . $172.3 $169.2 g $0.5 $2.6 $146.8 $143.7 $2.9 $0.2 $25.6 $97.1 49

2019 . . 143.9 139.4 g 1.6 2.9 147.9 145.1 2.7 .1 -4.0 93.1 66

2020 . . 149.7 145.3 g 1.7 2.8 146.3 143.6 2.6 .1 3.5 96.6 64

2021 . . 145.5 142.4 g .5 2.6 142.6 140.1 2.5 .1 2.8 99.4 68

2022 . . 165.1 160.7 g 1.6 2.8 146.5 143.6 2.7 .2 18.6 118.0 68

Intermediate:

2023 . . 181.4 176.6 g 1.1 3.7 152.9 149.7 3.1 g 28.5 146.5 77

2024 . . 184.7 178.4 g 1.7 4.6 161.1 158.0 3.0 g 23.6 170.2 91

2025 . . 195.5 188.1 g 1.9 5.6 171.1 168.0 3.1 g 24.4 194.5 99

2026 . . 205.5 196.6 g 2.3 6.5 181.1 177.8 3.3 g 24.4 218.9 107

2027 . . 215.5 205.4 g 2.5 7.6 189.1 185.6 3.4 g 26.5 245.4 116

2028 . . 226.1 214.5 g 2.6 9.0 194.8 191.2 3.6 g 31.3 276.7 126

2029 . . 237.0 223.6 g 2.8 10.6 200.7 196.9 3.8 g 36.4 313.1 138

2030 . . 248.3 232.8 g 2.9 12.6 206.7 202.7 4.0 g 41.6 354.7 151

2031 . . 260.4 242.4 g 3.1 14.8 214.1 209.9 4.1 .1 46.3 401.0 166

2032 . . 272.5 251.8 g 3.4 17.3 222.6 218.2 4.3 .1 49.9 450.9 180

Low-cost:

2023 . . 182.8 177.8 g 1.0 4.0 151.6 148.5 3.1 g 31.2 149.2 78

2024 . . 192.5 185.2 g 1.7 5.5 157.3 154.2 3.0 g 35.2 184.4 95

2025 . . 208.5 199.2 g 1.8 7.5 165.1 162.0 3.1 g 43.4 227.8 112

2026 . . 224.5 212.1 g 2.2 10.2 172.9 169.6 3.3 g 51.7 279.4 132

2027 . . 241.1 225.2 g 2.3 13.5 178.3 174.8 3.5 g 62.8 342.3 157

2028 . . 259.1 239.0 g 2.4 17.7 181.3 177.6 3.7 g 77.8 420.1 189

2029 . . 278.3 253.1 g 2.6 22.6 185.0 181.1 3.9 g 93.3 513.4 227

2030 . . 298.9 267.7 g 2.7 28.4 189.1 185.0 4.1 g 109.7 623.1 271

2031 . . 321.4 283.2 g 2.8 35.4 194.7 190.3 4.4 g 126.6 749.8 320

2032 . . 345.2 298.7 g 3.1 43.4 201.6 197.0 4.6 g 143.6 893.4 372
Actuarial Estimates

48

For the future, DI cost is projected to increase in part due to increases in

average benefit levels resulting from: (1) automatic benefit increases and

(2) projected increases in the amounts of average monthly earnings on which

benefits are based. Future changes in DI cost also reflect changes in the number of DI beneficiaries in current-payment status. In 2022, the number of DI

beneficiaries in current-payment status continued the declining trend of the

prior eight years. Under the intermediate assumptions, that number of DI

beneficiaries is projected to drop further through the end of 2024, then

increase through the end of 2032 to a level of about 9 million. The rate of

increase after 2024 is much slower than was experienced on average from

1990 to 2010, when the population with the highest disability prevalence

rates was growing rapidly due to the aging of the baby-boom generation. See

section V.C.5 for further details.

At the beginning of calendar year 2023, the reserves of the DI Trust Fund

represented 77 percent of estimated annual cost. Under the intermediate

High-cost:

2023 . . .$178.7 $173.9 g $1.1 $3.7 $154.1 $151.0 $3.1 g $24.6 $142.6 77

2024 . . . 176.2 170.3 g 1.8 4.1 165.9 162.8 3.0 g 10.4 152.9 86

2025 . . . 185.6 179.3 g 2.0 4.3 179.8 176.6 3.1 g 5.9 158.8 85

2026 . . . 193.1 186.2 g 2.5 4.5 191.4 188.1 3.3 g 1.7 160.5 83

2027 . . . 199.8 192.7 g 2.6 4.5 201.7 198.3 3.4 g -1.9 158.6 80

2028 . . . 205.8 198.5 g 2.8 4.4 209.4 205.8 3.5 g -3.6 155.0 76

2029 . . . 211.3 203.9 g 3.0 4.4 216.4 212.7 3.7 g -5.2 149.8 72

2030 . . . 216.4 209.0 g 3.2 4.2 224.0 220.1 3.8 $0.1 -7.5 142.3 67

2031 . . . 221.7 214.2 g 3.4 4.0 233.0 229.0 3.9 .1 -11.3 131.0 61

2032 . . . 226.4 219.0 g 3.7 3.7 242.8 238.7 4.1 .1 -16.4 114.6 54

a Appendix A presents a detailed description of the components of income and cost, along with complete historical values.

b Amounts for 2020 and 2021 are adjusted to include in 2021 operations those benefit payments regularly

scheduled in the law to be paid on January 3, 2021, which were actually paid on December 31, 2020 as required

by the statutory provision for early benefit payments when the normal delivery date is on a weekend or holiday.

Such shifts in payments across calendar years occur periodically whenever January 3rd falls on a Sunday. In

order to provide a consistent perspective on trust fund operations over time, all trust fund operations in each

year reflect the 12 months of benefits that are regularly scheduled for payment in that year. 

c Represents reserves at the beginning of a year (which are identical to reserves at the end of the prior year

shown in the “Amount at end of year” column) as a percentage of cost for the year. The trust fund ratio at the

beginning of 2033 is projected to be 194 percent for the intermediate, 425 percent for the low-cost, and 45 percent for the high-cost assumptions.

d Includes adjustments for prior calendar years. For example, in June 2021, an unusually large negative adjustment to payroll tax contributions in the amount of $5.2 billion was made because payroll tax revenue credited

to the trust fund in 2020 was based on estimates that did not anticipate effects of the pandemic and recession.

e Includes reimbursements from the General Fund of the Treasury to the DI Trust Fund for: (1) the cost of payroll tax credits provided to employees in 1984 and self-employed persons in 1984-89 by Public Law 98-21; and

(2) payroll tax revenue forgone under the provisions of Public Laws 111-147, 111-312, 112-78, and 112-96.

f Revenue from taxation of benefits is the amount that would be assessed on benefit amounts scheduled in the

law.

g Between -$50 million and $50 million.

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Table IV.A2.—Operations of the DI Trust Fund, Calendar Years 2018-2032a (Cont.)

[Dollar amounts in billions]

Calendar

year

Income Costb Asset Reservesb Trust

fund

ratio at

start of

year Total c

Net payroll tax

contributionsd

GF

reimbursementse

Taxation of

benefitsdf Net

interest Total

 Scheduled

benefits

Administrative

costs

RRB

interchange

Net

increase

during

year

Amount

at end

of year
49

Short-Range Estimates

assumptions, DI trust fund reserves and the trust fund ratio increase throughout

the short-range projection period. The trust fund ratio rises to 107 percent at the

beginning of the fourth projected year, 2026, and continues to increase for the

remainder of the short-range period.

Because the reserves of the DI Trust Fund at the beginning of 2023 were less

than the estimated annual cost for 2023, but are projected to increase to above

annual cost within five years, and then remain above annual cost throughout

the rest of the short-range period under the intermediate assumptions, the DI

Trust Fund satisfies the Trustees’ test of short-range financial adequacy.

3. Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds

Table IV.A3 shows the projected operations and status of the combined OASI

and DI Trust Funds for calendar years 2023 through 2032 under the three alternatives, together with actual experience in 2018 through 2022. Income and cost

for the OASI Trust Fund represent over 80 percent of the corresponding

amounts for the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds. Under the intermediate

and low-cost assumptions, the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds would have

sufficient financial resources to pay all scheduled benefits through the end of

the short-range period, although it is important to note that under current law,

one trust fund cannot share financial resources with another trust fund. Under

the high-cost assumptions, combined OASI and DI trust fund reserves deplete

in the fourth quarter of 2031. The combined OASI and DI Trust Funds do not

satisfy the test of short-range financial adequacy because under the intermediate assumptions, trust fund reserves drop below 100 percent of annual cost

during 2028, to a trust fund ratio of 96 percent at the beginning of 2029, and

remain below 100 percent for the remainder of the short-range period. 

Table IV.A3.—Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds,

Calendar Years 2018-2032a

[Dollar amounts in billions]

Calendar

year

Income Costb Asset Reservesb Trust

fund

ratio at

start of

year Total c

Net payroll tax

contributionsd

GF

reimbursementse

Taxation

of benefitsdf Net

interest Total

 Scheduled

benefits

Administrative

costs

RRB

interchange

Net

increase

during

year

Amount

at end

of year

Historical data:

2018. . . $1,003.4 $885.1 g $35.0 $83.3 $1,000.2 $988.6 $6.7 $4.9 $3.1 $2,894.9 289

2019. . . 1,061.8 944.5 g 36.5 80.8 1,059.3 1,047.9 6.4 4.9 2.5 2,897.4 273

2020. . . 1,118.1 1,001.3 g 40.7 76.1 1,107.2 1,095.9 6.3 5.0 10.9 2,908.3 262

2021. . . 1,088.3 980.6 g 37.6 70.1 1,144.6 1,133.2 6.5 4.9 -56.3 2,852.0 254

2022. . . 1,221.8 1,106.6 $0.2 48.6 66.4 1,243.9 1,231.7 6.7 5.5 -22.1 2,829.9 229

Intermediate:

2023. . . 1,334.7 1,216.8 g 52.3 65.7 1,387.9 1,375.3 7.2 5.4 -53.2 2,776.7 204

2024. . . 1,350.7 1,228.7 g 58.1 64.0 1,484.6 1,471.2 7.3 6.1 -133.9 2,642.8 187

2025. . . 1,419.3 1,295.7 g 62.1 61.6 1,574.3 1,560.7 7.5 6.2 -155.1 2,487.7 168
Actuarial Estimates

50

Intermediate (Cont.):

2026 . . $1,491.5$1,354.5 $0.2 $76.9 $60.0 $1,667.2 $1,653.1 $7.8 $6.3 -$175.7 $2,312.0 149

2027 . . 1,556.9 1,415.3 g 83.1 58.4 1,760.2 1,745.7 8.1 6.4 -203.3 2,108.7 131

2028 . . 1,622.7 1,477.5 g 89.6 $55.6 1,856.3 1,841.3 8.4 6.5 -233.6 1,875.1 114

2029 . . 1,688.4 1,540.5 g 96.6 51.4 1,955.2 1,939.7 8.8 6.6 -266.8 1,608.3 96

2030 . . 1,753.9 1,603.5 g 104.5 45.9 2,056.0 2,040.1 9.1 6.8 -302.1 1,306.2 78

2031 . . 1,821.3 1,669.8 g 112.8 38.6 2,159.1 2,142.8 9.4 6.9 -337.9 968.3 60

2032 . . 1,885.7 1,734.5 g 121.8 29.3 2,264.1 2,247.3 9.8 7.0 -378.4 589.9 43

Low-cost:

2023 . . 1,344.8 1,225.1 g 52.3 67.4 1,386.0 1,373.3 7.2 5.4 -41.2 2,788.7 204

2024 . . 1,403.0 1,276.1 g 57.8 69.1 1,476.1 1,462.8 7.3 6.1 -73.1 2,715.6 189

2025 . . 1,505.8 1,372.1 g 62.1 71.7 1,569.6 1,556.0 7.5 6.1 -63.7 2,651.8 173

2026 . . 1,615.7 1,461.4 .2 77.2 77.0 1,666.7 1,652.5 7.9 6.2 -51.0 2,600.9 159

2027 . . 1,719.2 1,551.7 g 83.8 83.8 1,764.5 1,749.8 8.4 6.3 -45.3 2,555.6 147

2028 . . 1,827.4 1,646.2 g 90.6 90.5 1,866.2 1,851.0 8.8 6.4 -38.9 2,516.7 137

2029 . . 1,939.0 1,743.8 g 98.1 97.1 1,972.4 1,956.6 9.3 6.6 -33.5 2,483.3 128

2030 . . 2,055.1 1,844.3 g 106.6 104.1 2,082.3 2,065.8 9.7 6.7 -27.2 2,456.0 119

2031 . . 2,178.2 1,950.7 g 115.7 111.8 2,196.2 2,179.2 10.2 6.8 -18.1 2,438.0 112

2032 . . 2,302.9 2,058.0 g 125.6 119.4 2,314.1 2,296.4 10.7 7.0 -11.1 2,426.8 105

High-cost:

2023 . . 1,316.0 1,198.3 g 52.3 65.4 1,390.0 1377.3 7.2 5.4 -74.0 2,755.9 204

2024 . . 1,293.0 1,173.4 g 58.6 61.0 1,500.7 1487.2 7.3 6.1 -207.7 2,548.2 184

2025 . . 1,353.3 1,235.4 g 62.9 55.1 1,599.6 1585.9 7.5 6.3 -246.3 2,301.9 159

2026 . . 1,410.2 1,282.6 .2 77.6 49.8 1,688.7 1674.5 7.7 6.5 -278.4 2,023.5 136

2027 . . 1,455.2 1,327.4 g 83.6 44.2 1,778.0 1763.5 8.0 6.5 -322.8 1,700.7 114

2028 . . 1,493.6 1,367.4 g 89.7 36.5 1,869.5 1,854.7 8.2 6.6 -375.9 1,324.8 91

2029 . . 1,528.5 1,404.6 g 96.3 27.6 1,962.0 1,946.9 8.4 6.7 -433.6 891.3 68

2030 . . 1,561.1 1,439.7 g 103.8 17.6 2,055.8 2,040.3 8.6 6.8 -494.7 396.5 43

2031 . . h 1,475.6 g 111.6 h 2,151.0 2,135.3 8.9 6.9 h h 18

2032 . . h 1,508.7 g 120.0 h 2,246.9 2,230.8 9.1 7.0 h hh

a The OASDI Trust Fund reserves become depleted in the fourth quarter of 2031 under the high-cost assumptions.

For any period during which reserves would be depleted, scheduled benefits could not be paid in full on a timely

basis, income from taxing benefits would be less than would apply to scheduled benefits, and interest on trust fund

reserves would be negligible. Appendix A presents a detailed description of the components of income and cost,

along with complete historical values.

b Amounts for 2020 and 2021 are adjusted to include in 2021 operations those benefit payments regularly scheduled

in the law to be paid on January 3, 2021, which were actually paid on December 31, 2020 as required by the statutory provision for early benefit payments when the normal delivery date is on a weekend or holiday. Such shifts in

payments across calendar years occur periodically whenever January 3rd falls on a Sunday. In order to provide a

consistent perspective on trust fund operations over time, all trust fund operations in each year reflect the 12 months

of benefits that are regularly scheduled for payment in that year. 

c Represents reserves at the beginning of a year (which are identical to reserves at the end of the prior year shown in

the “Amount at end of year” column) as a percentage of cost for the year. The trust fund ratio at the beginning of

2033 is projected to be 25 percent for the intermediate, and 100 percent for the low-cost assumptions.

d Includes adjustments for prior calendar years. For example, in June 2021, an unusually large negative adjustment

to payroll tax contributions in the amount of $35.5 billion was made because payroll tax revenue credited to the

trust funds in 2020 was based on estimates that did not anticipate effects of the pandemic and recession.

e Includes reimbursements from the General Fund of the Treasury to the OASI and DI Trust Funds for: (1) the cost

of payroll tax credits provided to employees in 1984 and self-employed persons in 1984-89 by Public Law 98-21;

and (2) payroll tax revenue forgone under the provisions of Public Laws 111-147, 111-312, 112-78, and 112-96.

Also includes transfers of a portion of proceeds from repayments of loans authorized under Public Law 116-136.

f Revenue from taxation of benefits is the amount that would be assessed on benefit amounts scheduled in the law.

g Between -$50 million and $50 million.

h When the fund reserves are depleted, values under current law would reflect permissible expenditures only, which

would be less than the full cost of paying scheduled benefits shown in this table.

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Table IV.A3.—Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds,

Calendar Years 2018-2032a (Cont.)

[Dollar amounts in billions]

Calendar

year

Income Costb Asset Reservesb Trust

fund

ratio at

start of

year Total c

Net payroll tax

contributionsd

GF

reimbursementse

Taxation

of benefitsdf Net

interest Total

 Scheduled

benefits

Administrative

costs

RRB

interchange

Net

increase

during

year

Amount

at end

of year
51

Short-Range Estimates

4. Factors Underlying Changes in 10-Year Trust Fund Ratio Estimates

From Last Year’s Report

Table IV.A4 presents an analysis of the factors underlying the changes in the

intermediate estimates over the short-range projection period for the OASI,

DI, and the combined funds from last year’s report to this report.

In the 2022 report under the intermediate assumptions, the trust fund ratio for

OASI reached 66 percent at the beginning of 2031—the tenth projection

year for that report. The change in the short-range valuation period alone,

from 2022 through 2031 to 2023 through 2032, lowered the estimated trust

fund ratio for the tenth year by 20 percentage points, to 46 percent. All other

changes to reflect modifications in law and regulations since last year’s

report, the most recent data, adjustments to the assumptions for future years,

and changes in projection methods combined for a net decrease in the ratio

for the tenth projection year of 18 percentage points. Therefore, the total

change in the tenth year projected trust fund ratio from last year’s report to

this year’s report is a reduction of 38 percentage points to 28 percent.

Legislative and regulatory changes since the 2022 report was published did

not have a significant effect on the projected tenth year OASI trust fund

ratio. Changes in demographic assumptions over the short-range period

increased the projected tenth year trust fund ratio for OASI by 4 percentage

points. Several changes in economic data and assumptions combined to

cause a net reduction in the OASI trust fund ratio of 21 percentage points by

the beginning of 2032. The large decrease due to economic factors is primarily due to the Trustees revising down the levels of GDP and labor productivity over the projection period. The reduced level of productivity reduces the

projected growth in average earnings relative to the CPI. As a result, higher

assumed growth in CPI and average benefits in the short-range period is not

matched with comparable increases in average earnings underlying payroll

tax collections. Incorporating recent programmatic data and assumptions,

including actual average benefits and beneficiary counts for 2022, resulted in

a decrease of 1 percentage point in the tenth year OASI trust fund ratio.

Finally, the tenth year trust fund ratio was not affected significantly by

changes in the short-range methodology for this report.

Table IV.A4 also shows corresponding estimates of the factors underlying

the changes in the financial projections for the DI Trust Fund and for the

combined OASI and DI Trust Funds. The 35-percentage-point increase in the

DI trust fund ratio from the beginning of 2031 in last year’s report to the

beginning of 2032 in this year’s report is the net effect of increases and

decreases from the factors described above for the OASI Trust Fund, combined with other changes that are significant for DI but not OASI. The large

increase of 33 points due to programmatic data and assumptions reflects
Actuarial Estimates

52

lower recent disabled-worker application and incidence rates, and a more

gradual return of initial disability application rates to their ultimate levels

from recent lows. 

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Table IV.A4.—Reasons for Change in Trust Fund (Unfunded Obligation) Ratios 

at the Beginning of the Tenth Year of Projection Under Intermediate Assumptions

[In percent]

Item

OASI

Trust Fund

DI

Trust Fund

OASI and DI

Trust Funds,

combined

Trust fund ratio shown in last year’s report for calendar year 2031 . 66 145 74

Change in trust fund ratio due to changes in: 

Legislation and regulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . aa a

Valuation period. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -20 12 -17

Demographic data and assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 a

a Between -0.5 and 0.5 percent.

4

Economic data and assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -21 -8 -20

Programmatic data and assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -1 33 2

Projection methods and data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . a -2 a

Total change in trust fund ratio -38 35 -31

Trust fund ratio shown in this report for calendar year 2032. . . . . . . 28 180 43
53

Long-Range Estimates

B. LONG-RANGE ESTIMATES

The Trustees use three types of financial measures to assess the actuarial status of the Social Security trust funds under the financing approach specified

in current law: (1) annual cash-flow measures, including income rates, cost

rates, and balances; (2) trust fund ratios; and (3) summary measures such as

actuarial balances and unfunded obligations.

The difference between the annual income rate and annual cost rate, both

expressed as percentages of taxable payroll, is the annual balance. The level

and trend of the annual balances at the end of the 75-year projection period

are factors used to assess the actuarial status of the program.

The trust fund ratio for a year is the proportion of the year’s projected cost

that could be paid with fund reserves available at the beginning of the year.

Critical factors considered in assessing actuarial status include: (1) the year

of depletion of the fund reserves and the percent of scheduled benefits that is

still payable after reserves are depleted, (2) the stability of the trust fund ratio

at the end of the long-range period, and (3) the level and year of maximum

trust fund ratio. 

Solvency at any point in time requires that sufficient financial resources are

available to pay all scheduled benefits at that time. Solvency is generally

indicated by a positive trust fund ratio. “Sustainable solvency” for the financing of the program under a specified set of assumptions is achieved when the

projected trust fund ratio is positive throughout the 75-year projection period

and is either stable or rising at the end of the period.

Total income and cost are summarized over valuation periods that extend

through 75 years and over the infinite horizon.1 This section presents several

summarized measures, including the actuarial balance and the open- group

unfunded obligation. The actuarial balance indicates the size of any surplus

or shortfall as a percentage of taxable payroll over the period. The opengroup unfunded obligation indicates the size of any shortfall in present-value

dollars.

This section also includes additional information that is used to assess the

actuarial status of the Social Security program, including: (1) a comparison

of the number of beneficiaries to the number of covered workers, (2) the test

of long-range close actuarial balance, and (3) the reasons for the change in

the actuarial balance from the last report.

 1 See appendix F.
Actuarial Estimates

54

1. Annual Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances

The concepts of income rate and cost rate, expressed as percentages of taxable payroll, are important in the consideration of the long-range actuarial

status of the trust funds. The annual income rate is the ratio of all non-interest income to the OASDI taxable payroll for the year. Non-interest income

includes payroll taxes, taxes on scheduled benefits, and any General Fund

transfers or reimbursements. The OASDI taxable payroll consists of the total

earnings subject to OASDI taxes with some relatively small adjustments.1

The annual cost rate is the ratio of the cost of the program to the taxable payroll for the year. The cost includes scheduled benefits, administrative

expenses, net interchange with the Railroad Retirement program, and payments for vocational rehabilitation services for disabled beneficiaries. For

any year, the annual income rate minus the annual cost rate is the annual

“balance” for the year.

Table IV.B1 presents a comparison of the estimated annual income rates and

cost rates by trust fund and alternative. Table IV.B2 shows the separate components of the annual income rates.

Under the intermediate assumptions, the OASI income rate will increase

from 10.95 percent of payroll for 2022 to 11.42 percent of payroll for 2023

and then decrease to 11.08 percent of payroll for 2024. The income rate for

2023 is relatively high because of an estimated large positive adjustment to

payroll tax contributions to be made in June 2023. This adjustment is unusually large because payroll tax revenue credited to the trust fund in 2022 was

based on estimates that did not anticipate the stronger-than-expected recovery from the pandemic-induced recession. The OASI income rate then generally gradually rises thereafter, reaching 11.57 percent of taxable payroll for

2097. Income from taxation of benefits causes this gradual increase in the

OASI income rate for two main reasons: (1) total scheduled benefits are rising faster than payroll; and (2) the ratio of total income tax on benefits to

total benefits increases over time for reasons discussed in detail on page 153.

The OASI cost rate rises rapidly from 2022 to about 2040. During this

period, the retirement of the baby-boom generation will increase the number

of beneficiaries much faster than the number of workers increases, as subsequent lower-birth-rate generations continue to replace the baby-boom generation at working ages. From 2040 to 2046, the cost rate declines because the

aging baby-boom generation is gradually replaced at retirement ages by the

 1 Adjustments include adding deemed wage credits based on military service for 1983-2001 and reflecting

the lower effective tax rates (as compared to the combined employee-employer rate) that apply to multipleemployer “excess wages.” Lower rates also applied to net earnings from self-employment before 1984 and

to income from tips before 1988.
55

Long-Range Estimates

lower-birth-rate generations that followed. The OASI cost rate then rises

from 15.01 percent for 2046 to 16.65 percent for 2078, largely because of the

period of reduced birth rates starting with the recession of 2007-09, and then

generally declines to 15.82 percent for 2097.

Projections of income rates under the low-cost and high-cost sets of assumptions are similar to those projected for the intermediate assumptions, because

income rates are largely a reflection of the payroll tax rates specified in the

law, with the changes from taxation of benefits noted above. In contrast,

OASI cost rates for the low-cost and high-cost assumptions are significantly

different from those projected for the intermediate assumptions. For the lowcost assumptions, the OASI cost rate generally declines from 12.77 percent

for 2023 to 12.03 percent for 2053, rises to 12.33 percent for 2070, and then

generally declines to 11.06 percent for 2097, at which point the income rate

reaches 11.27 percent. For the high-cost assumptions, the OASI cost rate

rises from 13.26 percent for 2023 to 24.89 percent for 2088 and then declines

gradually to 24.73 percent for 2097, at which point the income rate reaches

12.13 percent.

The pattern of the projected OASI annual balance is important in the analysis

of the actuarial status of the program. Under the intermediate assumptions,

the annual balance is negative throughout the projection period. The annual

deficit increases from 1.15 percent of taxable payroll for 2022 to

1.50 percent for 2023 and to 2.17 percent for 2024. After 2024, the annual

deficit continues to rise to 3.59 percent for 2040. It then declines to

3.53 percent of payroll for 2046, rises to 5.03 percent for 2078, and generally

declines thereafter, reaching 4.25 percent of taxable payroll for 2097.

Under the low-cost assumptions, the OASI annual deficit increases from

1.41 percent of payroll for 2023 to 1.66 percent for 2024, and then generally

declines to 0.72 percent of payroll for 2053. After 2053, the annual deficit

rises to 0.99 percent for 2070. After 2070, the OASI annual balance generally improves, turning positive in 2089, and reaching 0.21 percent of payroll

for 2097. Under the high-cost assumptions, the OASI annual deficit rises

from 1.72 percent for 2023 to 12.76 percent for 2088, and then declines relatively modestly to 12.60 percent for 2097.
Actuarial Estimates

56

Table IV.B1.—Annual Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances,

Calendar Years 1990-2100

[As a percentage of taxable payroll]

Calendar 

year

OASI DI OASDI

Income

ratea Costrateb Balanceb Incomeratea Costrateb Balanceb Incomeratea Costrateb Balanceb

Historical data:

1990. . . . . 11.47 9.65 1.82 1.18 1.09 0.10 12.65 10.74 1.91

1995. . . . . 10.65 10.23 .42 1.87 1.44 .43 12.52 11.67 .85

2000. . . . . 10.85 8.98 1.87 1.78 1.42 .36 12.62 10.40 2.23

2005. . . . . 10.96 9.31 1.65 1.84 1.85 -.02 12.80 11.16 1.63

2010. . . . . 10.75 11.06 -.30 1.79 2.41 -.62 12.54 13.47 -.92

2015. . . . . 11.02 11.64 -.62 1.81 2.27 -.47 12.82 13.91 -1.09

2016. . . . . 10.70 11.69 -.99 2.39 2.20 .19 13.09 13.89 -.80

2017. . . . . 10.63 11.56 -.92 2.42 2.09 .33 13.06 13.64 -.59

2018. . . . . 10.27 11.68 -1.41 2.32 2.01 .31 12.59 13.68 -1.10

2019. . . . . 10.97 11.90 -.93 1.84 1.93 -.09 12.81 13.83 -1.02

2020. . . . . 11.60 12.45 -.85 1.91 1.90 .01 13.51 14.35 -.85

2021. . . . . 10.52 12.05 -1.52 1.72 1.71 c 12.24 13.76 -1.52

2022. . . . . 10.95 12.10 -1.15 1.79 1.62 .17 12.74 13.72 -.98

Intermediate:

2023. . . . . 11.42 12.93 -1.50 1.86 1.60 .26 13.29 14.53 -1.24

2024. . . . . 11.08 13.25 -2.17 1.80 1.61 .19 12.89 14.87 -1.98

2025. . . . . 11.16 13.41 -2.25 1.82 1.64 .18 12.97 15.04 -2.07

2026. . . . . 11.26 13.58 -2.32 1.82 1.65 .16 13.08 15.23 -2.15

2027. . . . . 11.28 13.73 -2.45 1.82 1.65 .16 13.09 15.38 -2.29

2028. . . . . 11.31 13.92 -2.61 1.82 1.63 .19 13.13 15.55 -2.42

2029. . . . . 11.34 14.11 -2.76 1.82 1.61 .21 13.16 15.72 -2.56

2030. . . . . 11.37 14.28 -2.91 1.82 1.60 .22 13.18 15.87 -2.69

2031. . . . . 11.39 14.42 -3.02 1.82 1.59 .23 13.21 16.00 -2.79

2032. . . . . 11.42 14.56 -3.14 1.82 1.59 .23 13.24 16.14 -2.91

2035. . . . . 11.45 14.85 -3.40 1.82 1.63 .19 13.27 16.48 -3.21

2040. . . . . 11.47 15.06 -3.59 1.82 1.72 .10 13.30 16.78 -3.48

2045. . . . . 11.48 15.01 -3.53 1.83 1.85 -.02 13.31 16.86 -3.55

2050. . . . . 11.49 15.06 -3.57 1.83 1.92 -.09 13.32 16.99 -3.67

2055. . . . . 11.51 15.27 -3.76 1.83 1.96 -.13 13.34 17.23 -3.89

2060. . . . . 11.54 15.69 -4.14 1.83 1.93 -.10 13.37 17.62 -4.24

2065. . . . . 11.57 16.03 -4.46 1.83 1.91 -.08 13.40 17.95 -4.54

2070. . . . . 11.59 16.33 -4.74 1.83 1.90 -.07 13.42 18.23 -4.81

2075. . . . . 11.61 16.59 -4.98 1.83 1.87 -.04 13.44 18.46 -5.02

2080. . . . . 11.61 16.62 -5.00 1.83 1.85 -.02 13.45 18.47 -5.02

2085. . . . . 11.60 16.38 -4.78 1.83 1.85 -.01 13.43 18.23 -4.79

2090. . . . . 11.58 16.01 -4.43 1.83 1.89 -.05 13.41 17.89 -4.48

2095. . . . . 11.57 15.82 -4.25 1.83 1.92 -.09 13.40 17.74 -4.34

2100. . . . . 11.58 15.89 -4.31 1.84 1.94 -.10 13.41 17.83 -4.42

First year balance becomes

negative and remains negative

throughout the 75-year

projection period . . . . . . . . . . . 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2044 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2010
57

Long-Range Estimates

Low-cost:

2023. . . . . 11.36 12.77 -1.41 1.85 1.57 0.28 13.22 14.34 -1.12

2024. . . . . 11.09 12.75 -1.66 1.81 1.52 .29 12.90 14.27 -1.38

2025. . . . . 11.12 12.67 -1.54 1.81 1.49 .32 12.93 14.15 -1.22

2026. . . . . 11.21 12.64 -1.43 1.81 1.46 .35 13.02 14.11 -1.08

2027. . . . . 11.21 12.63 -1.42 1.81 1.42 .39 13.03 14.05 -1.03

2028. . . . . 11.24 12.66 -1.42 1.81 1.36 .45 13.05 14.02 -.97

2029. . . . . 11.26 12.69 -1.43 1.81 1.31 .50 13.07 14.00 -.93

2030. . . . . 11.27 12.70 -1.43 1.81 1.27 .55 13.09 13.97 -.88

2031. . . . . 11.29 12.69 -1.40 1.81 1.23 .58 13.10 13.93 -.82

2032. . . . . 11.30 12.69 -1.39 1.81 1.21 .60 13.11 13.90 -.78

2035. . . . . 11.32 12.71 -1.39 1.81 1.20 .62 13.13 13.90 -.77

2040. . . . . 11.32 12.58 -1.26 1.82 1.22 .59 13.14 13.80 -.66

2045. . . . . 11.31 12.27 -.96 1.82 1.29 .53 13.13 13.56 -.43

2050. . . . . 11.31 12.08 -.77 1.82 1.32 .50 13.13 13.39 -.27

2055. . . . . 11.31 12.05 -.74 1.82 1.32 .50 13.13 13.38 -.25

2060. . . . . 11.33 12.22 -.89 1.82 1.29 .53 13.15 13.51 -.36

2065. . . . . 11.34 12.31 -.97 1.82 1.27 .55 13.16 13.58 -.42

2070. . . . . 11.34 12.33 -.99 1.82 1.26 .56 13.16 13.58 -.42

2075. . . . . 11.34 12.30 -.96 1.82 1.23 .59 13.16 13.53 -.37

2080. . . . . 11.33 12.05 -.73 1.82 1.22 .60 13.14 13.27 -.12

2085. . . . . 11.30 11.61 -.31 1.82 1.22 .60 13.12 12.83 .29

2090. . . . . 11.27 11.15 .12 1.82 1.26 .56 13.09 12.41 .68

2095. . . . . 11.26 11.02 .24 1.82 1.29 .54 13.08 12.30 .78

2100. . . . . 11.27 11.17 .11 1.82 1.29 .53 13.09 12.45 .64

First year balance becomes

negative and remains negative

throughout the 75-year 

projection period . . . . . . . . . . . d . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . d

High-cost:

2023. . . . . 11.54 13.26 -1.72 1.88 1.65 .22 13.41 14.91 -1.49

2024. . . . . 11.03 13.88 -2.86 1.79 1.73 .06 12.82 15.61 -2.79

2025. . . . . 11.20 14.24 -3.04 1.82 1.80 .02 13.02 16.04 -3.02

2026. . . . . 11.31 14.45 -3.14 1.82 1.85 -.03 13.13 16.30 -3.17

2027. . . . . 11.33 14.69 -3.36 1.82 1.88 -.06 13.15 16.58 -3.42

2028. . . . . 11.38 15.04 -3.66 1.82 1.90 -.07 13.20 16.94 -3.74

2029. . . . . 11.42 15.40 -3.98 1.83 1.91 -.08 13.24 17.31 -4.07

2030. . . . . 11.45 15.76 -4.31 1.83 1.93 -.10 13.28 17.69 -4.41

2031. . . . . 11.50 16.10 -4.60 1.83 1.96 -.13 13.32 18.05 -4.73

2032. . . . . 11.53 16.44 -4.91 1.83 1.99 -.16 13.36 18.43 -5.07

Table IV.B1.—Annual Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances,

Calendar Years 1990-2100 (Cont.)

[As a percentage of taxable payroll]

Calendar 

year

OASI DI OASDI

Income

ratea Costrateb Balanceb Incomeratea Costrateb Balanceb Incomeratea Costrateb Balanceb
Actuarial Estimates

58

Notes:

1. The income rate excludes interest income.

2. Revisions of taxable payroll may change some historical values.

3. Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Under the intermediate assumptions, the projected DI cost rate is

1.60 percent for 2023. After 2023, the cost rate fluctuates, reaching

1.59 percent for 2031. Then the DI cost rate increases gradually to

1.96 percent for 2055. Thereafter, the cost rate remains relatively stable,

decreasing slowly to 1.84 percent for 2083, and then increasing to

1.93 percent for 2097. The DI income rate increases from 1.79 percent for

2022 to 1.86 percent for 2023, decreases to 1.80 percent for 2024, and is relatively stable thereafter, reaching 1.83 percent for 2097. The annual balance

increases from 0.17 percent of payroll for 2022 to 0.26 percent for 2023,

decreases to 0.16 percent for 2026 and then increases to 0.23 percent for

2031. After 2031, the annual balance declines and becomes negative for

2044. After 2044, the annual deficit increases to 0.13 percent for 2055,

decreases to 0.01 percent for 2083, and then increases to 0.10 percent of payroll for 2097.

High-cost (Cont.):

2035. . . . . 11.58 17.12 -5.54 1.83 2.12 -0.29 13.41 19.24 -5.83

2040. . . . . 11.64 17.93 -6.29 1.83 2.31 -.47 13.48 20.24 -6.76

2045. . . . . 11.68 18.47 -6.78 1.84 2.53 -.69 13.52 21.00 -7.48

2050. . . . . 11.73 19.12 -7.39 1.84 2.69 -.84 13.58 21.81 -8.23

2055. . . . . 11.79 19.90 -8.11 1.85 2.79 -.95 13.63 22.69 -9.06

2060. . . . . 11.85 20.88 -9.03 1.85 2.79 -.95 13.70 23.68 -9.98

2065. . . . . 11.92 21.80 -9.88 1.85 2.80 -.95 13.77 24.60 -10.83

2070. . . . . 11.98 22.71 -10.73 1.85 2.81 -.96 13.83 25.52 -11.69

2075. . . . . 12.04 23.66 -11.61 1.85 2.77 -.92 13.89 26.43 -12.53

2080. . . . . 12.09 24.39 -12.30 1.85 2.73 -.88 13.94 27.12 -13.18

2085. . . . . 12.12 24.81 -12.69 1.85 2.69 -.84 13.97 27.51 -13.53

2090. . . . . 12.13 24.87 -12.74 1.85 2.69 -.84 13.98 27.56 -13.58

2095. . . . . 12.13 24.76 -12.63 1.85 2.74 -.89 13.98 27.50 -13.52

2100. . . . . 12.13 24.74 -12.61 1.85 2.77 -.92 13.98 27.51 -13.53

First year balance becomes

negative and remains negative

throughout the 75-year

projection period . . . . . . . . . . . 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2026 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2010

a Income rates include certain reimbursements from the General Fund of the Treasury.

b Benefit payments scheduled to be paid on January 3 are actually paid on December 31 as required by the

statutory provision for early delivery of benefit payments when the normal payment delivery date is a Saturday, Sunday, or legal public holiday. For comparability with the values for historical years and the projections in this report, all trust fund operations and asset reserves reflect the 12 months of benefits scheduled for

payment each year.

c Between 0 and 0.005 percent of taxable payroll.

d The annual balance is projected to be negative for a temporary period and then become positive before the

end of the projection period.

e The annual balance is projected to be positive throughout the entire 75-year projection period.

Table IV.B1.—Annual Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances,

Calendar Years 1990-2100 (Cont.)

[As a percentage of taxable payroll]

Calendar 

year

OASI DI OASDI

Income

ratea Costrateb Balanceb Incomeratea Costrateb Balanceb Incomeratea Costrateb Balanceb
59

Long-Range Estimates

Under the low-cost assumptions, the projected DI cost rate declines from

1.57 percent of payroll for 2023 to 1.20 percent for 2035 and then increases

to 1.32 percent for 2054. The cost rate then declines through 2082 and

increases slowly thereafter, reaching 1.29 percent for 2097. The annual balance is positive throughout the long-range period, reaching 0.53 percent of

payroll for 2097. Under the high-cost assumptions, the DI cost rate rises

from 1.65 percent of payroll for 2023 to 2.80 percent for 2057 and fluctuates

thereafter, reaching 2.75 percent for 2097. The DI annual balance declines

from 0.22 percent of payroll for 2023 and becomes negative for 2026, with a

0.03 percent annual deficit for 2026. After 2026, annual deficits increase to

0.96 percent of payroll for 2057 and fluctuate thereafter, reaching

0.90 percent for 2097.

Figure IV.B1 shows the patterns of the historical and projected OASI and DI

annual cost rates. The patterns in projected OASI and DI cost rates are

described earlier in this chapter. Historical annual OASI cost rates shifted

upward starting in 2008 and have remained at relatively high levels since

then, primarily due to the changing age distribution of the adult population

with the retirement of the baby-boom generation and entry of lower birthrate generations into working ages. Historical annual DI cost rates rose substantially between 1990 and 2010 in large part due to: (1) aging of the working population as the baby-boom generation moved from ages 25-44 in 1990,

where disability prevalence is low, to ages 45-64 in 2010, where disability

prevalence is much higher; (2) a substantial increase in the percentage of

women insured for DI benefits as a result of increased and more consistent

rates of employment; and (3) increased disability incidence rates for women

to a level similar to those for men by 2010. As of 2010, these three factors

have largely stabilized. Other factors that are not yet fully understood,

including the changing nature of work, have caused age-sex-adjusted incidence rates and cost rates to decline from 2010 to 2022. Figure IV.B1 shows

only the income rates for alternative II because the variation in income rates

by alternative is very small. Income rates generally increase slowly for each

of the alternatives over the long-range period. Taxation of benefits, which is

a small portion of income, is the main source of the increases in the income

rate and the variation among the alternatives.

Table IV.B1 shows the annual balances for OASI, DI, and OASDI. The pattern of the annual balances is important to the analysis of the actuarial status

of the Social Security program as a whole. As seen in figure IV.B1, the magnitude of each of the positive annual balances is the distance between the

appropriate cost-rate curve and the income-rate curve above it. The magnitude of each of the annual deficits is the distance between the appropriate

cost-rate curve and the income-rate curve below it. Annual balances follow

closely the pattern of annual cost rates after 1990 because the payroll tax rate
Actuarial Estimates

60

for the OASDI program has not changed and will not under current law, with

only small variations in the allocation between DI and OASI except for

changes due to the 1994 and the 2016-18 payroll tax rate reallocations. 

In the future, the costs of OASI, DI, and the combined OASDI programs as a

percentage of taxable payroll are unlikely to fall outside the range encompassed by alternatives I and III because alternatives I and III define a wide

range of demographic, economic, and program-specific conditions.

Long-range OASDI cost and income are most often expressed as percentages

of taxable payroll. However, cost and income are also presented as shares of

gross domestic product (GDP), the value of goods and services produced

during the year in the United States. Under alternative II, the OASDI cost

increases from about 5.2 percent of GDP for 2023 to about 6.0 percent for

2040. After 2040, OASDI cost as a percentage of GDP declines slightly

through 2048, increases to a peak of 6.3 percent for 2076, and thereafter

decreases slowly, reaching about 6.0 percent by 2097. Appendix G presents

full estimates of income and cost relative to GDP. 

Table IV.B2 contains historical and projected annual income rates and their

components by trust fund and alternative. The annual income rates consist of

 Figure IV.B1.—Long-Range OASI and DI Annual Income Rates and Cost Rates

[As a percentage of taxable payroll]

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Calendar year

Alternative II Income rates

OASI Cost rates

DI Cost rates

Historical Projected

OASI

DI III

II

I

II

I

III
61

Long-Range Estimates

the scheduled payroll tax rates, the rates of income from taxation of scheduled benefits, and the rates of income from General Fund reimbursements.

Projected income from taxation of benefits increases over time for reasons

discussed on page 153. 

Table IV.B2.—Components of Annual Income Rates, Calendar Years 1990-2100

[As a percentage of taxable payroll]

Calendar

year

OASI DI OASDI

Payroll

tax

Taxation

of

benefitsa

General

Fund

Reimbursementsb Totalc Payroll

tax

Taxation

of

benefitsa

General

Fund

Reimbursementsb Totalc Payroll

tax

Taxation

of

benefitsa

General

Fund

Reimbursementsb Totalc

Historical data:

1990 . . 11.29 0.21 -0.03 11.47 1.21 0.01 -0.03 1.18 12.50 0.21 -0.06 12.65

1995 . . 10.46 .19 -.01 10.65 1.87 .01 -.01 1.87 12.33 .20 -.01 12.52

2000 . . 10.56 .29 d 10.85 1.78 .02 -.02 1.78 12.34 .31 -.02 12.62

2005 . . 10.68 .29 -.01 10.96 1.81 .02 d 1.84 12.49 .31 -.01 12.80

2010 . . 10.30 .42 .04 10.75 1.75 .04 .01 1.79 12.05 .45 .05 12.54

2015 . . 10.54 .47 d 11.02 1.79 .02 d 1.81 12.33 .49 .01 12.82

2016 . . 10.22 .48 d 10.70 2.37 .02 d 2.39 12.59 .49 d 13.09

2017 . . 10.12 .51 d 10.63 2.39 .03 d 2.42 12.51 .54 d 13.06

2018 . . 9.79 .47 d 10.27 2.31 .01 d 2.32 12.11 .48 d 12.59

2019 . . 10.51 .46 d 10.97 1.82 .02 d 1.84 12.33 .48 d 12.81

2020 . . 11.09 .51 d 11.60 1.88 .02 d 1.91 12.98 .53 d 13.51

2021 . . 10.08 .45 d 10.52 1.71 .01 d 1.72 11.79 .45 d 12.24

2022 . . 10.43 .52 d 10.95 1.77 .02 d 1.79 12.20 .54 d 12.74

Intermediate:

2023 . . 10.89 .54 d 11.42 1.85 .01 d 1.86 12.74 .55 d 13.29

2024 . . 10.52 .56 d 11.08 1.79 .02 d 1.80 12.30 .58 d 12.89

2025 . . 10.58 .58 d 11.16 1.80 .02 d 1.82 12.38 .59 d 12.97

2026 . . 10.58 .68 d 11.26 1.80 .02 d 1.82 12.38 .70 d 13.08

2027 . . 10.57 .70 d 11.28 1.80 .02 d 1.82 12.37 .73 d 13.09

2028 . . 10.58 .73 d 11.31 1.80 .02 d 1.82 12.38 .75 d 13.13

2029 . . 10.59 .75 d 11.34 1.80 .02 d 1.82 12.38 .78 d 13.16

2030 . . 10.58 .78 d 11.37 1.80 .02 d 1.82 12.38 .81 d 13.18

2031 . . 10.58 .81 d 11.39 1.80 .02 d 1.82 12.38 .84 d 13.21

2032 . . 10.57 .84 d 11.42 1.80 .02 d 1.82 12.37 .87 d 13.24

2035 . . 10.57 .87 d 11.45 1.80 .03 d 1.82 12.37 .90 d 13.27

2040 . . 10.57 .90 d 11.47 1.80 .03 d 1.82 12.37 .93 d 13.30

2045 . . 10.57 .91 d 11.48 1.80 .03 d 1.83 12.37 .94 d 13.31

2050 . . 10.57 .92 d 11.49 1.80 .03 d 1.83 12.37 .95 d 13.32

2055 . . 10.57 .94 d 11.51 1.80 .04 d 1.83 12.37 .97 d 13.34

2060 . . 10.57 .97 d 11.54 1.80 .04 d 1.83 12.37 1.01 d 13.37

2065 . . 10.57 .99 d 11.57 1.80 .04 d 1.83 12.37 1.03 d 13.40

2070 . . 10.57 1.02 d 11.59 1.80 .04 d 1.83 12.37 1.05 d 13.42

2075 . . 10.57 1.04 d 11.61 1.80 .04 d 1.83 12.37 1.07 d 13.44

2080 . . 10.57 1.04 d 11.61 1.80 .04 d 1.83 12.37 1.08 d 13.45

2085 . . 10.57 1.03 d 11.60 1.80 .04 d 1.83 12.37 1.07 d 13.43

2090 . . 10.57 1.01 d 11.58 1.80 .04 d 1.83 12.37 1.05 d 13.41

2095 . . 10.57 1.00 d 11.57 1.80 .04 d 1.83 12.37 1.04 d 13.40

2100 . . 10.57 1.00 d 11.58 1.80 .04 d 1.84 12.37 1.04 d 13.41

Low-cost:

2023 . . 10.83 .53 d 11.36 1.84 .01 d 1.85 12.67 .54 d 13.22

2024 . . 10.55 .54 d 11.09 1.79 .02 d 1.81 12.34 .56 d 12.90

2025 . . 10.58 .54 d 11.12 1.80 .02 d 1.81 12.37 .56 d 12.93

2026 . . 10.57 .63 d 11.21 1.80 .02 d 1.81 12.37 .65 d 13.02

2027 . . 10.57 .65 d 11.21 1.79 .02 d 1.81 12.36 .67 d 13.03
Actuarial Estimates

62

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Low-cost (Cont.):

2028 . . 10.58 0.66 d 11.24 1.80 0.02 d 1.81 12.37 0.68 d 13.05

2029 . . 10.58 .68 d 11.26 1.80 .02 d 1.81 12.38 .70 d 13.07

2030 . . 10.57 .70 d 11.27 1.80 .02 d 1.81 12.37 .72 d 13.09

2031 . . 10.57 .72 d 11.29 1.80 .02 d 1.81 12.37 .73 d 13.10

2032 . . 10.57 .74 d 11.30 1.79 .02 d 1.81 12.36 .75 d 13.11

2035 . . 10.57 .75 d 11.32 1.79 .02 d 1.81 12.36 .77 d 13.13

2040 . . 10.57 .76 d 11.32 1.79 .02 d 1.82 12.36 .78 d 13.14

2045 . . 10.57 .75 d 11.31 1.79 .02 d 1.82 12.36 .77 d 13.13

2050 . . 10.57 .74 d 11.31 1.79 .02 d 1.82 12.36 .77 d 13.13

2055 . . 10.57 .75 d 11.31 1.79 .03 d 1.82 12.36 .77 d 13.13

2060 . . 10.57 .76 d 11.33 1.79 .03 d 1.82 12.36 .79 d 13.15

2065 . . 10.57 .77 d 11.34 1.79 .03 d 1.82 12.36 .79 d 13.16

2070 . . 10.57 .77 d 11.34 1.79 .03 d 1.82 12.36 .80 d 13.16

2075 . . 10.57 .77 d 11.34 1.79 .02 d 1.82 12.36 .80 d 13.16

2080 . . 10.57 .76 d 11.33 1.79 .02 d 1.82 12.36 .78 d 13.14

2085 . . 10.57 .73 d 11.30 1.79 .03 d 1.82 12.36 .76 d 13.12

2090 . . 10.57 .70 d 11.27 1.79 .03 d 1.82 12.36 .73 d 13.09

2095 . . 10.57 .70 d 11.26 1.79 .03 d 1.82 12.36 .72 d 13.08

2100 . . 10.57 .71 d 11.27 1.79 .03 d 1.82 12.36 .73 d 13.09

High-cost:

2023 . . 10.99 .55 d 11.54 1.87 .01 d 1.88 12.85 .56 d 13.41

2024 . . 10.43 .59 d 11.03 1.77 .02 d 1.79 12.21 .61 d 12.82

2025 . . 10.59 .61 d 11.20 1.80 .02 d 1.82 12.39 .63 d 13.02

2026 . . 10.59 .72 d 11.31 1.80 .02 d 1.82 12.38 .75 d 13.13

2027 . . 10.58 .75 d 11.33 1.80 .02 d 1.82 12.37 .78 d 13.15

2028 . . 10.59 .79 d 11.38 1.80 .03 d 1.82 12.39 .81 d 13.20

2029 . . 10.59 .82 d 11.42 1.80 .03 d 1.83 12.39 .85 d 13.24

2030 . . 10.59 .87 d 11.45 1.80 .03 d 1.83 12.39 .89 d 13.28

2031 . . 10.59 .91 d 11.50 1.80 .03 d 1.83 12.39 .94 d 13.32

2032 . . 10.58 .95 d 11.53 1.80 .03 d 1.83 12.38 .98 d 13.36

2035 . . 10.58 1.00 d 11.58 1.80 .03 d 1.83 12.37 1.04 d 13.41

2040 . . 10.58 1.06 d 11.64 1.80 .04 d 1.83 12.38 1.10 d 13.48

2045 . . 10.58 1.10 d 11.68 1.80 .04 d 1.84 12.38 1.15 d 13.52

2050 . . 10.58 1.15 d 11.73 1.80 .05 d 1.84 12.38 1.20 d 13.58

2055 . . 10.58 1.21 d 11.79 1.80 .05 d 1.85 12.38 1.26 d 13.63

2060 . . 10.58 1.27 d 11.85 1.80 .05 d 1.85 12.38 1.33 d 13.70

2065 . . 10.58 1.34 d 11.92 1.80 .05 d 1.85 12.38 1.39 d 13.77

2070 . . 10.58 1.40 d 11.98 1.80 .05 d 1.85 12.38 1.45 d 13.83

2075 . . 10.58 1.46 d 12.04 1.80 .05 d 1.85 12.38 1.52 d 13.89

2080 . . 10.58 1.51 d 12.09 1.80 .05 d 1.85 12.38 1.57 d 13.94

2085 . . 10.58 1.54 d 12.12 1.80 .05 d 1.85 12.38 1.60 d 13.97

2090 . . 10.58 1.55 d 12.13 1.80 .05 d 1.85 12.38 1.60 d 13.98

2095 . . 10.58 1.55 d 12.13 1.80 .05 d 1.85 12.38 1.60 d 13.98

2100 . . 10.58 1.55 d 12.13 1.80 .06 d 1.85 12.38 1.60 d 13.98

a Revenue from taxation of benefits is the amount that would be assessed on benefit amounts scheduled in the

law.

b Includes payroll tax revenue forgone under the provisions of Public Laws 111-147, 111-312, 112-78, and

112-96, and other miscellaneous reimbursements. Also includes transfers of a portion of the proceeds from

repayments of loans authorized under Public Law 116-136.

c Values exclude interest income.

d Between 0 and 0.005 percent of taxable payroll.

Table IV.B2.—Components of Annual Income Rates, Calendar Years 1990-2100 (Cont.)

[As a percentage of taxable payroll]

Calendar

year

OASI DI OASDI

Payroll

tax

Taxation

of

benefitsa

General

Fund

Reimbursementsb Totalc Payroll

tax

Taxation

of

benefitsa

General

Fund

Reimbursementsb Totalc Payroll

tax

Taxation

of

benefitsa

General

Fund

Reimbursementsb Totalc
63

Long-Range Estimates

2. Comparison of Workers to Beneficiaries

Under the intermediate assumptions, the OASDI cost rate will rise rapidly

between 2023 and about 2040, primarily because the number of beneficiaries

rises much more rapidly than the number of covered workers as the babyboom generation continues to retire and is replaced at working ages by lower

birth-rate generations. The ratio of OASDI beneficiaries to workers is dominated by the OASI program because all workers eventually die or retire, but

only a relatively small minority become eligible for benefits under the DI

program. The trends described below are primarily due to demographic

changes and thus affect the DI program roughly 20 years earlier than the

OASI and OASDI programs. The baby-boom generation had lower fertility

rates than their parents, and lower fertility rates are expected to persist for all

future generations; therefore, the ratio of OASDI beneficiaries to workers

will rise rapidly and reach a permanently higher level after all of the babyboom generation has retired. Due to increasing longevity, the ratio of beneficiaries to workers will generally rise slowly thereafter. Table IV.B3 provides

a comparison of the numbers of covered workers and beneficiaries.

Table IV.B3.—Covered Workers and Beneficiaries, Calendar Years 1945-2100

Calendar year

Covered

workersa

(in thousands)

Beneficiariesb (in thousands) Covered

workers per

OASDI

beneficiary

OASDI

beneficiaries

per 100

covered

OASI DI OASDI workers c

Historical data:

1945 . . . . . . . . . 46,390 1,106 - 1,106 41.9 2

1950 . . . . . . . . . 48,280 2,930 - 2,930 16.5 6

1955 . . . . . . . . . 65,066 7,564 - 7,564 8.6 12

1960 . . . . . . . . . 72,371 13,740 522 14,262 5.1 20

1965 . . . . . . . . . 80,539 18,509 1,648 20,157 4.0 25

1970 . . . . . . . . . 92,963 22,618 2,568 25,186 3.7 27

1975 . . . . . . . . . 100,193 26,998 4,125 31,123 3.2 31

1980 . . . . . . . . . 112,651 30,384 4,734 35,117 3.2 31

1985 . . . . . . . . . 120,437 32,763 3,874 36,636 3.3 30

1990 . . . . . . . . . 133,004 35,255 4,204 39,459 3.4 30

1995 . . . . . . . . . 140,797 37,364 5,731 43,096 3.3 31

2000 . . . . . . . . . 154,701 38,556 6,606 45,162 3.4 29

2005 . . . . . . . . . 159,027 39,961 8,172 48,133 3.3 30

2010 . . . . . . . . . 157,047 43,440 9,958 53,398 2.9 34

2015 . . . . . . . . . 168,135 48,663 10,881 59,543 2.8 35

2016 . . . . . . . . . 170,640 49,811 10,728 60,539 2.8 35

2017 . . . . . . . . . 172,710 50,962 10,517 61,480 2.8 36

2018 . . . . . . . . . 175,065 52,168 10,296 62,464 2.8 36

2019 . . . . . . . . . 176,970 53,508 10,063 63,570 2.8 36

2020 . . . . . . . . . 174,938 54,843 9,844 64,686 2.7 37

2021 . . . . . . . . . 176,579 55,546 9,486 65,032 2.7 37

2022 . . . . . . . . . 180,510 56,544 9,070 65,614 2.8 36

Intermediate:

2023 . . . . . . . . . 180,394 57,815 8,754 66,569 2.7 37

2025 . . . . . . . . . 183,051 60,666 8,580 69,247 2.6 38

2030 . . . . . . . . . 187,120 67,175 9,132 76,307 2.5 41

2035 . . . . . . . . . 189,379 71,544 9,612 81,156 2.3 43

2040 . . . . . . . . . 191,158 73,886 10,351 84,237 2.3 44

2045 . . . . . . . . . 193,564 74,985 11,320 86,305 2.2 45

2050 . . . . . . . . . 196,862 76,607 11,985 88,592 2.2 45
Actuarial Estimates

64

Notes: 

1. The number of beneficiaries does not include uninsured individuals who received benefits under 

section 228 of the Social Security Act. The General Fund of the Treasury reimbursed the trust funds for the 

costs of most of these individuals.

2. Historical covered worker and beneficiary data are subject to revision.

3. Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Intermediate (Cont.):

2055 . . . . . . . . . 200,653 78,990 12,476 91,467 2.2 46

2060 . . . . . . . . . 204,569 82,429 12,585 95,014 2.2 46

2065 . . . . . . . . . 208,232 85,673 12,736 98,409 2.1 47

2070 . . . . . . . . . 211,659 88,828 12,908 101,736 2.1 48

2075 . . . . . . . . . 215,233 91,925 12,957 104,881 2.1 49

2080 . . . . . . . . . 219,424 93,951 13,105 107,056 2.0 49

2085 . . . . . . . . . 224,505 94,841 13,414 108,254 2.1 48

2090 . . . . . . . . . 230,262 95,170 14,024 109,194 2.1 47

2095 . . . . . . . . . 236,146 96,466 14,610 111,076 2.1 47

2100 . . . . . . . . . 241,705 99,028 15,040 114,068 2.1 47

Low-cost:

2023 . . . . . . . . . 181,468 57,801 8,736 66,537 2.7 37

2025 . . . . . . . . . 186,149 60,583 8,396 68,979 2.7 37

2030 . . . . . . . . . 191,067 66,824 8,168 74,991 2.5 39

2035 . . . . . . . . . 194,307 70,627 8,048 78,675 2.5 40

2040 . . . . . . . . . 197,257 72,281 8,362 80,643 2.4 41

2045 . . . . . . . . . 201,895 72,718 8,994 81,712 2.5 40

2050 . . . . . . . . . 208,227 73,654 9,434 83,088 2.5 40

2055 . . . . . . . . . 215,323 75,420 9,783 85,203 2.5 40

2060 . . . . . . . . . 222,535 78,298 9,879 88,177 2.5 40

2065 . . . . . . . . . 229,494 81,013 10,040 91,053 2.5 40

2070 . . . . . . . . . 236,460 83,570 10,260 93,830 2.5 40

2075 . . . . . . . . . 244,161 86,018 10,442 96,460 2.5 40

2080 . . . . . . . . . 253,253 87,396 10,753 98,149 2.6 39

2085 . . . . . . . . . 263,935 87,725 11,258 98,983 2.7 38

2090 . . . . . . . . . 275,491 88,000 12,065 100,066 2.8 36

2095 . . . . . . . . . 286,865 90,335 12,760 103,095 2.8 36

2100 . . . . . . . . . 297,638 94,544 13,281 107,825 2.8 36

High-cost:

2023 . . . . . . . . . 179,078 57,833 8,771 66,604 2.7 37

2025 . . . . . . . . . 179,805 60,779 8,776 69,555 2.6 39

2030 . . . . . . . . . 183,399 67,668 10,033 77,701 2.4 42

2035 . . . . . . . . . 184,679 72,822 11,106 83,929 2.2 45

2040 . . . . . . . . . 185,419 76,135 12,220 88,356 2.1 48

2045 . . . . . . . . . 185,446 78,281 13,497 91,778 2.0 49

2050 . . . . . . . . . 185,380 80,949 14,368 95,316 1.9 51

2055 . . . . . . . . . 185,388 84,231 14,982 99,213 1.9 54

2060 . . . . . . . . . 185,467 88,444 15,059 103,503 1.8 56

2065 . . . . . . . . . 185,215 92,382 15,127 107,508 1.7 58

2070 . . . . . . . . . 184,454 96,227 15,128 111,355 1.7 60

2075 . . . . . . . . . 183,298 99,984 14,860 114,844 1.6 63

2080 . . . . . . . . . 181,986 102,661 14,592 117,252 1.6 64

2085 . . . . . . . . . 180,956 104,039 14,354 118,392 1.5 65

2090 . . . . . . . . . 180,338 104,117 14,316 118,433 1.5 66

2095 . . . . . . . . . 179,997 103,553 14,494 118,046 1.5 66

2100 . . . . . . . . . 179,732 103,318 14,624 117,942 1.5 66

a Workers who are paid at some time during the year for employment on which OASDI taxes are due.

b Beneficiaries with monthly benefits in current-payment status as of June 30.

c This column is the sum of OASI and DI beneficiaries. A small number of beneficiaries receive benefits

from both funds.

Table IV.B3.—Covered Workers and Beneficiaries, Calendar Years 1945-2100 (Cont.)

Calendar year

Covered

workersa

(in thousands)

Beneficiariesb (in thousands) Covered

workers per

OASDI

beneficiary

OASDI

beneficiaries

per 100

covered

OASI DI OASDI workers c
65

Long-Range Estimates

The effect of the demographic shift under the three alternatives on the

OASDI cost rates is clear when one considers the projected number of

OASDI beneficiaries per 100 covered workers. Compared to the 2022 level

of 36 beneficiaries per 100 covered workers, this ratio is projected to rise to

44 by 2038 under the intermediate assumptions because the growth in beneficiaries greatly exceeds the growth in workers. This projected ratio continues to rise through 2078 and then generally declines, reaching 47 under the

intermediate assumptions by 2100. Under the high-cost assumptions, this

ratio generally rises to 66 by 2100. Under the low-cost assumptions, this

ratio rises to 41 by 2038 and then generally declines, reaching 36 by 2100.

Figure IV.B2 shows beneficiaries per 100 covered workers.

For each alternative, the curve in figure IV.B2 is strikingly similar to the corresponding cost-rate curve in figure IV.B1. This similarity emphasizes the

extent to which the cost rate is determined by the age distribution of the population. The cost rate is essentially the product of the number of beneficiaries

and their average benefit, divided by the product of the number of covered

workers and their average taxable earnings. For this reason, the pattern of the

annual cost rates is similar to that of the annual ratios of beneficiaries to

workers.

Table IV.B3 also shows the number of covered workers per OASDI beneficiary, which was about 2.8 for 2022. Under the intermediate assumptions,

 Figure IV.B2.—Number of OASDI Beneficiaries Per 100 Covered Workers

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Calendar year

Historical Projected

III

II

I
Actuarial Estimates

66

this ratio declines generally throughout the long-range period, reaching 2.3

for 2038 and 2.1 by 2100. Under the low-cost assumptions, this ratio

declines to 2.4 for 2038, then generally rises to 2.8 by 2100. Under the highcost assumptions, this ratio generally decreases to 1.5 by 2100.

3. Trust Fund Ratios and Test of Long-Range Close Actuarial Balance

Trust fund ratios are critical indicators of the adequacy of the financial

resources of the Social Security program. The trust fund ratio for a year is the

amount of asset reserves in a fund at the beginning of a year expressed as a

percentage of the cost for the year. Under current law, the OASI and DI Trust

Funds do not have the authority to borrow other than in the form of advance

tax transfers. If reserves held in either trust fund become depleted during a

year, and continuing revenue falls short of the cost of scheduled benefits,

then full scheduled benefits would not be payable on a timely basis. For this

reason, the trust fund ratio is a critical financial measure.

The trust fund ratio serves an additional important purpose in assessing the

actuarial status of the program. If the projected trust fund ratio is positive

throughout the period and is either level or increasing at the end of the

period, then projected adequacy for the long-range period is likely to continue for subsequent reports. Under these conditions, the program has

achieved sustainable solvency.

Table IV.B4 shows the projections of trust fund ratios by alternative, without

regard to advance tax transfers that would be effected, for the separate and

combined OASI and DI Trust Funds. The table also shows the years of trust

fund reserve depletion and the percentage of scheduled benefits that would

be payable thereafter, by alternative.

Under the intermediate assumptions, the OASI trust fund ratio is projected to

decline from 220 percent at the beginning of 2023 until the trust fund

reserves become depleted in 2033 (one year earlier than projected in last

year’s report), at which time 77 percent of scheduled benefits would be payable. The change in reserve depletion year to 2033, compared to 2034 in last

year’s report, is due primarily to changes in recent economic data and nearterm assumptions.

The DI Trust Fund remains solvent throughout the long-range period under

the intermediate assumptions, as in last year’s report. The DI trust fund ratio

increases from 77 percent at the beginning of 2023 to a peak of 267 percent

for 2043. After 2043, the DI trust fund ratio generally declines throughout

the remainder of the long-range period, reaching 155 percent for 2098. 

Under the intermediate assumptions, the trust fund ratio for the combined

OASI and DI Trust Funds declines from 204 percent at the beginning of
67

Long-Range Estimates

2023 until the combined fund reserves become depleted in 2034 (one year

earlier than projected in last year’s report), at which time 80 percent of

scheduled benefits would be payable.

Under the low-cost assumptions, the trust fund ratio for the DI program

increases from 2023 throughout the projection period, from 78 percent at the

beginning of 2023 to the extremely high level of 3,574 percent for 2098. For

the OASI program, the trust fund ratio declines steadily, from 220 percent for

2023 until the reserves become depleted in 2039, at which time 89 percent of

scheduled benefits would be payable. For the combined OASDI program, the

trust fund ratio declines from 204 percent for 2023 until the combined fund

reserves become depleted in 2067. However, the trust funds would have sufficient income by the end of 2092 to permit full payment of scheduled benefits thereafter and also to pay in arrears the temporary shortfalls between

2067 and 2092. By 2093, trust fund reserves become positive and the trust

fund ratio increases thereafter, to a ratio of 36 percent for 2098. Because the

DI trust fund ratio is positive throughout the projection period and increasing

at the end of the period, under the low-cost assumptions, only the DI program achieves sustainable solvency.

Under the high-cost assumptions, the OASI trust fund ratio declines from

219 percent for 2023 until reserves become depleted in 2031, at which time

70 percent of scheduled benefits would still be payable. The DI trust fund

ratio increases from 77 percent for 2023 to 86 percent for 2024, and then

declines until the reserves become depleted in 2036. At that time, 85 percent

of scheduled benefits would still be payable. The combined OASI and DI

trust fund ratio declines from 204 percent for 2023 until reserves become

depleted in 2031, at which time 72 percent of scheduled benefits would still

be payable.

Trust fund reserve depletion occurs within the 75-year projection period for

the OASI Trust Fund under the low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost

assumptions, and for the DI Trust Fund under the high-cost assumptions. It is

therefore very likely that lawmakers will need to increase income, reduce

program costs, or both, in order to maintain solvency for the OASI Trust

Fund. The stochastic projections discussed in appendix E suggest that OASI

and combined OASI and DI Trust Fund reserve depletion is highly probable

before mid-century.

In the 2022 report, the combined trust fund reserves were projected to

become depleted in 2031 and 2035 under the high-cost and intermediate

assumptions, respectively, and become temporarily depleted between 2069

and 2088 under the low-cost assumptions.
Actuarial Estimates

68

Note: The definition of trust fund ratio appears in the Glossary. The ratios shown for the combined trust

funds for years after reserve depletion of either the DI or OASI Trust Fund are hypothetical.

Since 2013, when the Trustees last modified the test of long-range close

actuarial balance, the standard for each trust fund requires meeting two conditions: (1) the test of short-range financial adequacy is satisfied; and (2) the

trust fund ratios stay above zero throughout the 75-year projection period,

allowing scheduled benefits to be paid in a timely manner throughout the

period. Both the long-range test and the short-range test are applied based on

Table IV.B4.—Trust Fund Ratios, Calendar Years 2023-2100a

[In percent]

a Benefit payments scheduled to be paid on January 3 are actually paid on December 31 as required by the

statutory provision for early delivery of benefit payments when the normal payment delivery date is a Saturday, Sunday, or legal public holiday. For comparability with the values for historical years and the projections in this report, all trust fund ratios reflect the 12 months of benefits scheduled for payment each year.

Calendar

year

Intermediate Low-cost High-cost

OASI DI OASDI OASI DI OASDI OASI DI OASDI

2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220 77 204 220 78 204 219 77 204

2024 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 91 187 200 95 189 196 86 184

2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176 99 168 180 112 173 169 85 159

2026 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154 107 149 162 132 159 143 83 136

2027 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133 116 131 146 157 147 118 80 114

2028 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 126 114 131 189 137 93 76 91

2029 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 138 96 117 227 128 67 72 68

2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 151 78 104 271 119 40 67 43

2031 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 166 60 92 320 112 13 61 18

2032 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 180 43 80 372 105 b

b Trust fund reserves would be depleted at the beginning of this year.

54 b

2035 . . . . . . . . . . . . . b 218 b 48 530 89 b 23 b

2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . . b 260 b b 781 66 bbb

2045 . . . . . . . . . . . . . b 266 b b 978 49 bbb

2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . b 253 b b 1,174 39 bbb

2055 . . . . . . . . . . . . . b 230 b b 1,378 31 bbb

2060 . . . . . . . . . . . . . b 211 b b 1,635 22 bbb

2065 . . . . . . . . . . . . . b 198 b b 1,908 9 bbb

2070 . . . . . . . . . . . . . b 187 b b 2,190 b bbb

2075 . . . . . . . . . . . . . b 181 b b 2,510 b bbb

2080 . . . . . . . . . . . . . b 184 b b 2,822 b bbb

2085 . . . . . . . . . . . . . b 187 b b 3,083 b bbb

2090 . . . . . . . . . . . . . b 182 b b 3,242 b bbb

2095 . . . . . . . . . . . . . b 166 b b 3,430 17 bbb

2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . b 146 b b 3,680 47 bbb

Trust fund reserves 

permanently 

become 

depleted in . . . . . . 2033 c

c Trust fund reserves would not be depleted within the projection period.

2034 2039 c d

d Trust fund reserves would be depleted for a temporary period, and return to positive levels before the end

of the period.

2031 2036 2031

Payable benefits as 

percent of scheduled benefits:

At the time of 

permanent 

reserve

depletion . . . . . 77 c 80 89 c d 70 85 72

For 2097 . . . . . 71 c 74 100 c d 46 67 48
69

Long-Range Estimates

the intermediate set of assumptions. As discussed in section IV.A, the DI

Trust Fund passes the test of short-range financial adequacy because the trust

fund ratio, while below 100 percent at the beginning of the projection period,

reaches 100 percent within 5 years and stays above 100 percent throughout

the remainder of the 10-year period. The OASI and combined OASI and DI

Trust Funds fail the test of short-range financial adequacy because the trust

fund ratios drop below 100 percent by the end of the 10-year period. Under

the intermediate assumptions, the OASI Trust Fund reserves become

depleted in 2033, DI Trust Fund reserves stay positive throughout the 75-

year period, and the combined OASI and DI Trust Fund reserves become

depleted in 2034. Therefore, the OASI and combined OASI and DI Trust

Funds fail the test of long-range close actuarial balance, and the DI program

passes the test of long-range close actuarial balance.

Figure IV.B3 illustrates the trust fund ratios for the separate OASI and DI

Trust Funds for each of the alternative sets of assumptions. DI Trust Fund

status is more uncertain than OASI Trust Fund status because there is a high

degree of uncertainty associated with future disability prevalence. A graph of

the trust fund ratios for the combined trust funds appears in figure II.D6.

 Figure IV.B3.—Long-Range OASI and DI Trust Fund Ratios

[Asset reserves as a percentage of annual cost]

0%

200%

400%

600%

800%

1,000%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Calendar year

OASI

DI

Historical Projected

II

I

I

II

III
Actuarial Estimates

70

4. Summarized Income Rates, Summarized Cost Rates, and Actuarial

Balances

Summarized values for the full 75-year period are useful in analyzing the

program’s long-range actuarial status over the period as a whole, both under

current law and under proposed modifications to the law. All annual amounts

included in a summarized value are present-value discounted to the valuation

date. It is important to note that the actuarial balance indicates the solvency

status of the fund only for the very end of the period.

Table IV.B5 presents summarized income rates, summarized cost rates, and

actuarial balances for 25-year, 50-year, and 75-year valuation periods. Summarized income rates are the sum of the present value of non-interest income

for a period (which includes scheduled payroll taxes, the projected income

from the taxation of scheduled benefits, and reimbursements from the General Fund of the Treasury) and the starting trust fund asset reserves,

expressed as a percentage of the present value of taxable payroll over the

period. Under current law, the total OASDI payroll tax rate will remain at

12.4 percent in the future. In contrast, income from taxation of benefits,

expressed as a percentage of taxable payroll, is expected to increase in most

years of the long-range period for the reasons discussed on page 153. Summarized cost rates are the sum of the present value of cost for a period

(which includes scheduled benefits, administrative expenses, net interchange

with the Railroad Retirement program, and payments for vocational rehabilitation services for disabled beneficiaries) and the present value of the cost of

reaching a target trust fund of 100 percent of annual cost at the end of the

period, expressed as a percentage of the present value of taxable payroll over

the period.

The actuarial balance for a valuation period is equal to the difference

between the summarized income rate and the summarized cost rate for the

period. An actuarial balance of zero for any period indicates that cost for the

period could be met for the period as a whole (but not necessarily at all

points within the period), with a remaining trust fund reserve at the end of

the period equal to 100 percent of the following year’s cost. A negative actuarial balance for a period indicates that the present value of income to the

program plus the existing trust fund is less than the present value of the cost

of the program plus the cost of reaching a target trust fund reserve of

one year’s cost by the end of the period. Generally, a trust fund is deemed to

be adequately financed for a period as a whole if the actuarial balance is zero

or positive, meaning that the reserves at the end of the period are at least
71

Long-Range Estimates

equal to annual cost. Note that solvency is possible at the end of the period

with a small negative actuarial balance where reserves are still positive.1

Table IV.B5 contains summarized rates for the intermediate, low-cost, and

high-cost assumptions. The low-cost and high-cost assumptions define a

wide range of possibilities. Financial outcomes as good as the low-cost scenario or as bad as the high-cost scenario are unlikely to occur.

For the 25-year valuation period, the OASDI program has an actuarial balance of -0.31 percent of taxable payroll under the low-cost assumptions,

-2.50 percent under the intermediate assumptions, and -4.89 percent under

the high-cost assumptions. These balances indicate that the program is not

adequately financed for the 25-year valuation period under any of these three

sets of assumptions.

For the 50-year valuation period, the OASDI program has actuarial balances

of -0.29 percent under the low-cost assumptions, -3.24 percent under the

intermediate assumptions, and -6.97 percent under the high-cost assumptions. These actuarial balances mean that the OASDI program is not adequately financed for the 50-year valuation period under any of these three

sets of assumptions.

For the entire 75-year valuation period, the combined OASDI program has

actuarial balances of -0.10 percent of taxable payroll under the low-cost

assumptions, -3.61 percent under the intermediate assumptions, and

-8.37 percent under the high-cost assumptions. These balances indicate that

the combined OASDI program is not adequately financed for the 75-year

valuation period under any of these three sets of assumptions.

Assuming the intermediate assumptions accurately capture future demographic, economic, and program-specific trends, solvency for the program

over the next 75 years could be restored using a variety of approaches. For

example, revenue could be increased in a manner equivalent to an immediate

and permanent increase in the combined Social Security payroll tax rate from

12.40 percent to 15.84 percent (a relative increase of 27.7 percent),2 cost

could be reduced in a manner equivalent to an immediate and permanent

 1 A program is solvent over any period for which the trust fund maintains a positive level of asset reserves.

In contrast, the actuarial balance for a period includes the cost of having a target fund equal to 100 percent of

the following year’s cost at the end of the period. Therefore, if a program ends the period with reserves that

are positive but not sufficient to cover the following year’s costs, it will be solvent at the end of the period

and yet still have a small negative actuarial balance for that period.

 2 The 3.44 percentage point increase in the payroll tax rate required to achieve 75-year solvency differs

somewhat from the 3.61 percent actuarial deficit. This is primarily because the rate increase required to

achieve 75-year solvency reflects a zero trust fund reserve at the end of the period, whereas the 3.61 percent

actuarial deficit incorporates an ending trust fund reserve equal to one year’s cost. While such an increase in

the payroll tax rate would cause some behavioral changes in earnings and ensuing changes in benefit levels,

such changes are not included in these calculations because they are assumed to have roughly offsetting

effects on OASDI actuarial status over the 75-year long-range period as a whole.
Actuarial Estimates

72

reduction in scheduled benefits of 21.3 percent, or some combination of

approaches could be used.

However, eliminating the actuarial deficit for the next 75-year valuation

period requires raising payroll taxes or lowering benefits by more than is

required just to achieve solvency, because the actuarial deficit includes the

cost of attaining a target trust fund equal to 100 percent of annual program

cost by the end of the period. The actuarial deficit could be eliminated for the

75-year period by increasing revenue in a manner equivalent to an immediate

and permanent increase in the combined payroll tax from 12.40 percent to

16.01 percent (a relative increase of 29.1 percent),1 reducing cost in a manner equivalent to an immediate reduction in scheduled benefits of

22.1 percent, or some combination of approaches could be used.

Under the intermediate assumptions, the OASDI program has large annual

deficits toward the end of the long-range period that reach 4.35 percent of

payroll for 2097 (see table IV.B1). These large deficits indicate that annual

cost continues to exceed non-interest income after 2097, so continued adequate financing would require larger changes than those needed to maintain

solvency for the 75-year period. Over the period extending through the

infinite horizon, the actuarial deficit is 4.6 percent of payroll under the intermediate assumptions.

 1 The calculation of the payroll tax rate increase required to eliminate the actuarial deficit also does not

include the effects of behavioral changes, because they are assumed to have roughly offsetting effects.

Table IV.B5.—Components of Summarized Income Rates and Cost Rates, 

Calendar Years 2023-2097

[As a percentage of taxable payroll]

Valuation period

Summarized income rate Summarized cost rate

Actuarial

balance

Non-interest

income

Beginning

asset reservesa Total Costa

Ending

target

funda Total

OASI:

Intermediate:

2023-47. . . . . 11.41 1.06 12.47 14.51 0.57 15.09 -2.62

2023-72. . . . . 11.48 .57 12.05 15.03 .28 15.31 -3.26

2023-97. . . . . 11.51 .41 11.93 15.38 .16 15.54 -3.62

Low-cost:

2023-47. . . . . 11.30 .94 12.24 12.58 .49 13.07 -.83

2023-72. . . . . 11.32 .49 11.81 12.39 .23 12.63 -.82

2023-97. . . . . 11.32 .34 11.66 12.16 .14 12.30 -.64

High-cost:

2023-47. . . . . 11.53 1.18 12.72 16.60 .67 17.28 -4.56

2023-72. . . . . 11.67 .67 12.35 18.40 .34 18.74 -6.39

2023-97. . . . . 11.78 .51 12.29 19.82 .20 20.02 -7.73
73

Long-Range Estimates

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

5. Open-Group Unfunded Obligation

Consistent with practice since 1965, this report focuses on a 75-year opengroup valuation to evaluate the long-range actuarial status of the OASDI program. The open-group valuation includes non-interest income and cost for

past, current, and future participants through the year 2097. The open-group

unfunded obligation measures the adequacy of financing over the period as a

whole for a program financed on a pay-as-you-go basis. On this basis, payroll taxes and scheduled benefits for all participants are included through

2097.

The open-group unfunded obligation increased from $20.4 trillion shown in

last year's report to $22.4 trillion in this report. If there had been no changes

in starting values, assumptions, laws, or methods for this report, then the

open-group unfunded obligation would have increased to $21.2 trillion

DI:

Intermediate:

2023-47. . . . . 1.82 0.05 1.87 1.69 0.07 1.76 0.11

2023-72. . . . . 1.83 .02 1.85 1.80 .03 1.83 .02

2023-97. . . . . 1.83 .02 1.85 1.82 .02 1.84 .01

Low-cost:

2023-47. . . . . 1.82 .04 1.86 1.29 .05 1.34 .51

2023-72. . . . . 1.82 .02 1.84 1.29 .02 1.31 .53

2023-97. . . . . 1.82 .01 1.83 1.28 .02 1.29 .54

High-cost:

2023-47. . . . . 1.83 .05 1.88 2.12 .09 2.22 -.33

2023-72. . . . . 1.84 .03 1.87 2.40 .04 2.44 -.58

2023-97. . . . . 1.84 .02 1.86 2.48 .02 2.50 -.64

OASDI:

Intermediate:

2023-47. . . . . 13.24 1.10 14.34 16.20 .65 16.85 -2.50

2023-72. . . . . 13.31 .60 13.90 16.83 .31 17.14 -3.24

2023-97. . . . . 13.34 .43 13.78 17.20 .18 17.38 -3.61

Low-cost:

2023-47. . . . . 13.12 .98 14.10 13.87 .54 14.42 -.31

2023-72. . . . . 13.14 .51 13.65 13.69 .26 13.94 -.29

2023-97. . . . . 13.14 .35 13.49 13.44 .15 13.59 -.10

High-cost:

2023-47. . . . . 13.36 1.24 14.60 18.73 .77 19.49 -4.89

2023-72. . . . . 13.51 .70 14.22 20.80 .38 21.18 -6.97

2023-97. . . . . 13.62 .54 14.16 22.30 .22 22.52 -8.37

a Benefit payments scheduled to be paid on January 3 are actually paid on December 31 as required by the

statutory provision for early delivery of benefit payments when the normal payment delivery date is a Saturday, Sunday, or legal public holiday. For comparability with the values for historical years and the projections in this report, all trust fund operations and asset reserves reflect the 12 months of benefits scheduled for

payment each year.

Table IV.B5.—Components of Summarized Income Rates and Cost Rates, 

Calendar Years 2023-2097 (Cont.)

[As a percentage of taxable payroll]

Valuation period

Summarized income rate Summarized cost rate

Actuarial

balance

Non-interest

income

Beginning

asset

reservesa Total Costa

Ending

target

funda Total
Actuarial Estimates

74

solely due to the change in the valuation period. This expected increase in

the unfunded obligation occurs because: (1) the unfunded obligation is now

discounted to January 1, 2023, rather than to January 1, 2022, which tends to

increase the unfunded obligation by the annual nominal interest rate; and

(2) the unfunded obligation now includes an additional year (2097). However, changes in the law, assumptions, methods, and starting values resulted

in a net $1.2 trillion increase in the unfunded obligation. 

The 75-year unfunded obligation is equivalent to 3.42 percent of OASDI taxable payroll and 1.2 percent of GDP for 2023-97.1 These percentages were

3.24 and 1.1, respectively, for last year’s report. The 75-year unfunded obligation as a percentage of taxable payroll is less than the actuarial deficit,

because the unfunded obligation excludes the cost of having an ending target

trust fund value.

The actuarial deficit was 3.42 percent of payroll in last year’s report, and was

expected to increase to a deficit of 3.48 percent of payroll solely due to the

change in the valuation period. Changes in the law, assumptions, methods,

and starting values combined to account for a 0.13 percentage point increase

(worsening) in the actuarial deficit to 3.61 percent of payroll. The actuarial

deficit is 1.3 percent of GDP in this year’s report, 0.1 percent higher than in

last year’s report.

As mentioned above, the open-group unfunded obligation expressed in dollars is higher than it would have been if only the valuation period had been

changed. This net increase occurred for a variety of reasons described in the

next section, in particular changes in recent economic data and near-term

assumptions, and changes in programmatic data and methods.

Table IV.B6 presents the components and the calculation of the long-range

(75-year) actuarial balance under the intermediate assumptions. The present

value of future cost less future non-interest income over the long-range

period, minus the amount of trust fund asset reserves at the beginning of the

projection period, is $22.4 trillion for the OASDI program. This amount is

the 75-year “open-group unfunded obligation” (see row H). The actuarial

deficit (which is the negative of the actuarial balance) combines this

unfunded obligation with the present value of the ending target trust fund and

expresses the total as a percentage of the present value of the taxable payroll

for the period. The present value of future non-interest income minus cost,

plus starting trust fund reserves, minus the present value of the ending target

trust fund, is -$23.6 trillion for the OASDI program. 

 1 The present value of taxable payroll for 2023-97 is $655.0 trillion. The present value of GDP for 2023-97

is $1,865.3 trillion. In last year’s report, the present value of taxable payroll for 2022-96 was $631.6 trillion

and the present value of GDP was $1,817.7 trillion.
75

Long-Range Estimates

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Consideration of summary measures alone (such as the actuarial balance and

open-group unfunded obligation) for a 75-year period can lead to incorrect

perceptions and to policy prescriptions that do not achieve sustainable solvency. These concerns can be addressed by considering the trend in trust

fund ratios toward the end of the period. (See the discussion of “sustainable

solvency” beginning on page 53.)

Another measure of trust fund finances, discussed in appendix F, is the

infinite horizon unfunded obligation, which takes account of all annual balances, even those after 75 years. The extension of the time period past

75 years assumes that the current-law OASDI program and the demographic,

economic, and program-specific trends used for the 75-year projection continue indefinitely. This infinite horizon unfunded obligation is estimated to

be 4.6 percent of taxable payroll or 1.4 percent of GDP. These percentages

were 4.5 and 1.4, respectively, for last year’s report. Of course, the degree of

uncertainty associated with estimates increases substantially for years further

in the future.

6. Reasons for Change in Actuarial Balance From Last Report

Table IV.B7 shows the effects of changes on the long-range actuarial balance

under the intermediate assumptions, by category, between last year’s report

and this report.

Table IV.B6.—Components of 75-Year Actuarial Balance and Unfunded Obligation

Under Intermediate Assumptions

Item OASI DI OASDI

Present value as of January 1, 2023 (in billions):

A. Payroll tax revenue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $69,343 $11,775 $81,118

B. Reimbursements from general revenue. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . a

a Less than $0.5 billion.

a a

C. Taxation of benefits revenue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,076 214 6,290

D. Non-interest income (A + B + C) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75,419 11,989 87,408

E. Cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100,744 11,916 112,660

F. Cost minus non-interest income (E - D) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25,325 -73 25,252

G. Trust fund asset reserves at start of period . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,712 118 2,830

H. Open-group unfunded obligation (F - G) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22,613 -191 22,422

I. Ending target trust fundb . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

b The calculation of the actuarial balance includes the cost of accumulating a target trust fund reserve equal

to 100 percent of annual cost at the end of the period.

1,070 131 1,201

J. Income minus cost, plus reserves at start of period, minus

ending target trust fund (D - E + G - I = - H - I) . . . . . . . . . . . . -23,683 61 -23,623

K. Taxable payroll . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 655,013 655,013 655,013

Percent of taxable payroll:

Actuarial balance (100 × J ÷ K) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -3.62 .01 -3.61
Actuarial Estimates

76

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

If the law, data, assumptions, and methods had all remained unchanged from

last year’s Trustees Report, the long-range OASDI actuarial balance would

have decreased (worsened) by 0.05 percent of taxable payroll solely due to

the change in the valuation period. However, as described below, projections

in this report also reflect new data and changes in law, assumptions, and

methods. These changes, including the change in the valuation period, combine to decrease (worsen) the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by

0.19 percentage point, from -3.42 percent of taxable payroll in last year’s

report to -3.61 percent in this report.

Legislation/Regulation

Changes in law, regulations, and policy have a negligible effect on the longrange OASDI actuarial balance.

Since the last report, there have been a number of notable regulatory and

judicial developments related to immigration policy. On August 30, 2022,

the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) published a final rule in the

Federal Register, establishing regulations to “preserve and fortify” the

Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program in full. On October 5, 2022, the US Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit affirmed an earlier

district court decision that had declared the DACA policy unlawful. The

appeals court returned the case to the district court for further review of the

Table IV.B7.—Reasons for Change in the 75-Year Actuarial Balance,

Based on Intermediate Assumptions

[As a percentage of taxable payroll]

Item OASI DI OASDI

Shown in last year’s report:

Income rate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.93 1.85 13.78

Cost rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.34 1.86 17.20

Actuarial balance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -3.41 -.01 -3.42

Changes in actuarial balance due to changes in:

Legislation / Regulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . a

a Between -0.005 and 0.005 percent of taxable payroll.

a a

Valuation periodb . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

b The change in the 75-year valuation period from last year’s report to this report means that the 75-year

actuarial balance now includes the relatively large negative annual balance for 2097. This change in the valuation period results in a larger long-range actuarial deficit. The actuarial deficit includes the trust fund

reserve at the beginning of the projection period.

-.05 -.01 -.05

Demographic data and assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . -.03 a -.03

Economic data and assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -.04 a -.04

Disability data and assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . a .01 .01

Methods and programmatic data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -.08 .02 -.06

Total change in actuarial balance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -.21 .02 -.19

Shown in this report:

Actuarial balance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -3.62 .01 -3.61

Income rate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.93 1.85 13.78

Cost rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.54 1.84 17.38
77

Long-Range Estimates

DHS regulation. On October 14, 2022, the district court issued an order

extending the pause in implementing the DACA final rule. As a result, DHS

is currently prohibited from processing new DACA applications and related

employment authorizations. 

Changes in DACA policy affect OASDI program operations because those

who apply for and receive deferred action status are eligible for work authorization, which leads to additional workers covered by the OASDI program,

increased payroll tax revenue, and subsequently increased benefit cost. The

estimates presented in last year’s report reflected the assumption that the

DACA program would be fully in effect by the middle of 2022, consistent

with the Administration’s intent. Because of the court challenges, the estimates presented in this year’s report incorporate an additional one-year delay

in the resumption of processing new applications, to the middle of 2023. This

one-year delay has a negligible effect on the actuarial balance.

Valuation Period

As mentioned above, changing the 75-year valuation period from 2022

through 2096 for last year’s report to 2023 through 2097 for this report

decreases the projected long-range OASDI actuarial balance by 0.05 percent

of taxable payroll. This decrease occurs because (1) the annual balances after

2022 are now discounted to January 1, 2023, rather than to January 1, 2022,

and (2) the relatively large negative annual balance for 2097 is now included

in this year’s 75-year projection period. Note that the actuarial balance calculation includes trust fund reserves at the beginning of the projection period.

These reserves reflect the program’s net financial flows for all past years,

including 2022, up to the start of the valuation period.

Demographic Data and Assumptions

New demographic data and changes in demographic assumptions combine to

decrease (worsen) the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by 0.03 percent

of taxable payroll.

The ultimate demographic assumptions are unchanged for this year’s report.

However, updates to recent demographic data and near-term assumptions

result in significant changes in the long-range actuarial balance. 

First, final birth data for calendar year 2021, the base year for the fertility

rate projections, indicate a total fertility rate very slightly higher than the rate

assumed in last year’s report for 2021. However, incorporating the updated

base year data into the regression used to project birth rates during the transition to the ultimate level led to generally slightly lower birth rates during the
Actuarial Estimates

78

transition period. This change in assumed birth rates during the transition

period decreases the actuarial balance by 0.01 percent of taxable payroll.

Second, updates to near-term mortality assumptions to reflect the effects of

the COVID-19 pandemic increase the long-range actuarial balance by

0.02 percent of taxable payroll. Final mortality data are now available for all

age groups for calendar year 2020 and for ages 65 and older for 2021. Based

on preliminary data available to date, assumed death rates were increased for

ages 0 to 64 for 2021 and for ages 0 to 84 for 2022, compared to the rates

used for last year’s report. Death rates are assumed to continue to be elevated

in 2023 and 2024, above the levels that were assumed in last year’s report.

Projected death rates for years after 2024 are assumed to be unchanged from

the levels that would have been projected in the absence of the pandemic. 

Third, updates to data for the historical population, other-than-lawful permanent resident immigration, and marriage and divorce—including updates

related to incorporating 2020 and 2021 data from the American Community

Survey—combine to decrease the actuarial balance by 0.04 percent of taxable payroll.

Economic Data and Assumptions

New economic data and changes in economic assumptions, in combination,

decrease the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by 0.04 percent of taxable

payroll.

One ultimate economic assumption was updated for this year’s report. The

annual percentage change in the average OASDI covered wage, adjusted for

inflation, is assumed to average 1.14 percentage points over the last 65 years

of the 75-year projection period. This is 0.02 percentage point higher than

the value assumed for last year’s report. This change in the real wage growth

assumption was made because the difference between the growth in earnings

and employee compensation has been extraordinarily low across the last

three economic cycles and is expected to remain slightly lower in the future

than was assumed for last year’s report. This assumption change increases

the long-range actuarial balance by 0.03 percent of taxable payroll. 

In addition, updates to recent economic data and near-term assumptions

result in significant changes in the long-range actuarial balance. 

First, in response to recent economic developments, including higher-thanexpected inflation rates and lower-than-expected output growth, the Trustees

revised the levels of GDP and labor productivity down by about 3.0 percent

by 2026 and for all years thereafter. This change decreases the actuarial balance by roughly 0.13 percent of taxable payroll. 
79

Long-Range Estimates

Second, while the ultimate real interest rate assumption remains at

2.3 percent for this year’s report, the assumed real interest rates over the first

10 years of the projection period are generally higher than those assumed for

last year’s report, consistent with recent experience and expectations. These

higher near-term real interest rates increase the actuarial balance by

0.02 percent of payroll.

Other changes to historical data and near-term economic assumptions combine for a net increase in the actuarial balance of about 0.03 percent of taxable payroll.

Disability Data and Assumptions

New disability data and changes in disability assumptions combine to

increase the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by 0.01 percent of taxable

payroll. This increase is due to the combined effects of actual disability data

for 2022 and generally slightly lower assumed incidence rates in the first

10 years of the projection period. The ultimate disability incidence rate

assumption remains at 4.8 per thousand exposed for this report. 

Methods and Programmatic Data

The projections in this report also reflect several methodological improvements and updates based on new program-specific data. These methodological changes, programmatic data updates, and interactions combine to

decrease the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by 0.06 percent of taxable

payroll. Descriptions of four significant methodological changes and programmatic data updates follow.

First, the method for projecting the age distributions of lawful permanent resident (LPR) new arrival and adjustment-of-status immigrants was updated,

reflecting recent data showing a slightly older population at the time of

attaining LPR status than had previously been estimated. These updated age

distributions decrease the actuarial balance by 0.02 percent of taxable payroll. 

Second, the method for estimating the level of OASDI taxable wages for historical years 2000-21 was improved by adopting a more consistent approach

for estimating completed values across various types of wages, including

regular wages, farm wages, employer-reported tips, and self-reported wages

and tips. Taxable wages are based on tabulations of wages reported to date

on IRS Forms 941 (Employer’s Quarterly Federal Tax Return), but because

of reporting lags and corrections, the reported amounts are initially incomplete for a given tax year and additional amounts continue to arrive for sev-
Actuarial Estimates

80

eral subsequent years. This method improvement increases the actuarial

balance by 0.01 percent of payroll. 

Third, the sample of retired-worker and disabled-worker beneficiaries who

have become newly entitled for benefits used in the long-range model for

projecting average benefit levels was updated. This model uses a large sample of 10 percent of all newly entitled retired-worker beneficiaries in a recent

year. The sample used in last year’s report was for worker beneficiaries

newly entitled in 2018, while this year’s report uses the results from worker

beneficiaries newly entitled in 2019. This update results in a decrease in the

actuarial balance of 0.03 percent of payroll.

The fourth significant change is updating the post-entitlement benefit adjustment factors based on new programmatic data. Post-entitlement factors are

used to account for changes in benefit levels, primarily due to differential

mortality by benefit level and earnings after initial benefit entitlement. This

data update decreases the actuarial balance by 0.03 percent of payroll.

In addition to these four methodological changes and programmatic data

updates, changes in starting levels and projected levels of OASI and DI beneficiaries and benefit amounts over the first 10 years of the projection period,

updating other programmatic data, other small methodological improvements, and interactions among the various method changes and updates to

programmatic experience combine to increase the long-range actuarial balance by 0.01 percent of payroll.
81

Long-Range Estimates

Figure IV.B4 compares the annual balances for this report and the prior

year’s report for the combined OASDI program over the long-range (75-

year) projection period. The figure illustrates the annual effects of the

changes described earlier in this section.

The annual balances in this year’s report are lower (more negative) in all

years after 2023, primarily due to the changes in economic factors and methodological improvements described above. For the full 75-year projection

period (2023-97), the annual balances average 0.13 percentage point lower in

this year’s report. For 2097, the projected annual deficit is 4.35 percent of

taxable payroll in this report, compared to 4.26 percent in last year's report. 

 Figure IV.B4.—OASDI Annual Balances: 2022 and 2023 Trustees Reports

[As a percentage of taxable payroll, under intermediate assumptions]

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Calendar year

2022 Report

2023 Report
Assumptions and Methods

82

V. ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS UNDERLYING

ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES

The future income and cost of the OASDI program will depend on many

demographic, economic, and program-specific factors. Trust fund income

will depend on how these factors affect the size and composition of the

working population as well as the level and distribution of earnings. Similarly, program cost will depend on how these factors affect the size and composition of the beneficiary population as well as the general level of benefits.

The Trustees make basic assumptions for several of these factors based on

analysis of historical trends, historical conditions, and expected future conditions. These factors include fertility, mortality, immigration, marriage,

divorce, productivity, inflation, average earnings, unemployment, real interest rates, and disability incidence and termination. Other factors depend on

these basic assumptions. These other, often interdependent, factors include

total population, life expectancy, labor force participation, gross domestic

product, and program-specific factors. Each year, the Trustees reexamine

these assumptions and methods in light of new information and make appropriate revisions.

Future levels of these factors and their interrelationships are inherently

uncertain. To address these uncertainties, this report uses three sets of

assumptions, designated as intermediate (alternative II), low-cost

(alternative I), and high-cost (alternative III). The intermediate set represents

the Trustees’ best estimate of the future course of the population and the

economy as of the time assumptions were set in December 2022. With regard

to the net effect on the actuarial status of the OASDI program, the low-cost

set is more optimistic and the high-cost set is more pessimistic. The low-cost

and high-cost sets of assumptions reflect significant potential changes in the

interrelationships among factors, as well as changes in the values for individual factors. 

While it is unlikely that all of the factors and interactions will differ in the

specified directions from the intermediate values, many combinations of

individual differences in the factors could have a similar overall effect. Outcomes with overall long-range cost as low as the low-cost scenario or as high

as the high-cost scenario are very unlikely. This report also includes a section

on sensitivity analysis, where factors are changed one at a time (see

appendix D), and a section on stochastic projections, which provides a probability distribution of possible future outcomes, with most of the key factors

being varied around the intermediate alternative (see appendix E).
83

Demographic Assumptions and Methods

Readers should interpret the estimates based on the three sets of alternative

assumptions with care. These estimates are not specific predictions of the

future financial status of the OASDI program. Rather, they are intended to

provide a reasonable range of future income and cost.

All of the key demographic, economic, and program-specific assumptions

reach their long-range ultimate values within the next 25 years. For extrapolations beyond the 75-year long-range period, the ultimate levels or trends

reached by the end of the 75-year period remain unchanged. The assumed

ultimate values represent average annual experience or growth rates. Actual

future values will exhibit fluctuations or cyclical patterns, as in the past.

At this time, there is no consensus on what the lasting effects of the

COVID-19 pandemic on long-term demographic, economic, and programspecific trends will be. The Trustees continue to assume that the pandemic

will have no net effect on the individual long-range ultimate assumptions.

However, the Trustees assume that the pandemic and other evolving international events, like the war in Ukraine, will have consequential effects on the

future structure of the economy and the level of productivity.

The following sections briefly discuss the various assumptions and methods

used in making the estimates of trust fund actuarial status, which are the

focus of this report.1 There are, of course, many interrelationships among

these factors that are important but are beyond the scope of this discussion. 

A. DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS

This section of the report provides a brief overview of the demographic historical data and the assumptions used for the projections.

1. Fertility Assumptions

Birth rates by single year of age, for girls and women aged 14 to 49,2 are the

basis for the fertility assumptions. These rates apply to the total number of

women, across all marital statuses, in the midyear population at each age.

Table V.A1 displays the historical and projected total fertility rates.3

 1 Actuarial Studies published by the Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration, contain

further details about the assumptions, methods, and actuarial estimates. A complete list of available studies

may be found at www.ssa.gov/OACT/NOTES/actstud.html. This entire report, along with supplemental

year-by-year tables and additional documentation on assumptions and methods, may be found at

www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2023/.

 2 Birth rates at age 14 include births to girls aged 14 and under, and birth rates at age 49 include births to

women aged 49 and over.

 3 The total fertility rate may be interpreted as the average number of children that would be born to a woman

if she were to experience, at each age of her life, the birth rate observed in, or assumed for, a specified year,

and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period. A rate of about 2.1 would ultimately result in a

nearly constant population if immigration and emigration were both zero, and if death rates were to remain

at current levels.
Assumptions and Methods

84

Historically, birth rates in the United States have fluctuated widely. The total

fertility rate decreased from 3.31 children per woman at the end of World

War I (1918) to 2.15 during the Great Depression (1936). After 1936, the

total fertility rate rose to 3.68 in 1957 and then fell to 1.74 by 1976. After

1976, the total fertility rate rose above 2.00 by 1990, where it generally

remained through 2009, but it dropped below 1.90 for 2011 and has been at

relatively low levels since then. It reached an all-time low of 1.64 for 2020

but went up slightly to 1.66 for 2021.

As in last year’s report, the Trustees assume that the COVID-19 pandemic

will not have any significant net effect on fertility rates in either the near

term or the long term.

The variations in the historical total fertility rate resulted from changes in

many factors, including social attitudes, economic conditions, birth-control

practices, and the racial/ethnic composition of the population. Since the

baby-boom era (1946-65), women have had higher educational attainment,

higher labor force participation, an older average age at first marriage, and a

higher propensity to be unmarried. All of these factors are consistent with

continued lower total fertility rates than those experienced during the babyboom era. It is still too early to tell whether the 2022 Supreme Court decision

(Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization) and changes being made

and considered in states regarding abortion policy will have a significant

effect on future fertility rates. Based on consideration of these factors, the

Trustees expect the ultimate total fertility rate to be relatively close to the

average level since the end of the baby-boom era. The assumed ultimate total

fertility rates are 2.20, 2.00, and 1.70 children per woman for the low-cost,

intermediate, and high-cost assumptions, respectively. These are the same

ultimate rates as those assumed for last year’s report.

The 2023 Trustees Report uses a cohort-based projection approach that

incorporates a gradual shift to older ages of childbearing for birth cohorts

who have not yet reached age 49. The ultimate total fertility rate is reached

on a cohort basis over the lifetime of girls attaining age 14 in 2021 and later.

For the intermediate assumptions, the projected total fertility rate gradually

increases on a period (annual) basis through the year the ultimate period

value is reached (2056). The assumed low-cost and high-cost total fertility

rates trend away from the intermediate path, also reaching their ultimate

period values in 2056.
85

Demographic Assumptions and Methods

2. Mortality Assumptions

Mortality projections are developed by assuming ultimate average annual

percentage reductions in future mortality rates by age group and cause of

death. The assumptions are used to estimate future central death rates by age

group, sex, and cause of death. 

Adjustments were made to the assumed death rates for 2021, 2022, 2023,

and 2024 to account for the effects of the pandemic period. The table below

shows the multiplicative factors that were applied to the probabilities of

death that would have been projected in the absence of the pandemic. Factors

for 2020 are not necessary, as actual final data are available. Similarly, factors were not applied for ages 65 and over in 2021 because actual data are

available for those ages.

Provisional death rates were particularly high in 2021 for those aged 15-64,

relative to the rates that would have been expected in the absence of the pandemic. The factors for this age group in 2022-24 are more in line with the

other age groups based on provisional death data in 2022. Compared to the

death rates used for last year’s report, the factors in the table above result in

higher total death rates in 2021 through 2024.

From the estimated central death rates, probabilities of death by single year

of age and sex were calculated. Projected death rates for years after 2024 are

unchanged from the levels that would have been projected in the absence of

the pandemic, under the assumption that increased deaths from the residual

effects of living through the pandemic (both physiological and psychological) will be roughly offset by decreased deaths that instead happened sooner

(during the pandemic).

Historical death rates were calculated for years 1900 through 2020 for ages

below 65 (and for all ages for years prior to 1968) using data from the

National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS).1 For ages 65 and over, final

Medicare data on deaths for years 1968 through 2019 and preliminary data

Year Age 0 Ages 1-14 Ages 15-64 Ages 65-84

Ages 85

and older

2021 1.00 1.08 1.33 a1.18

a Based on actual data.

a1.08

2022 1.00 1.05 1.11 1.12 1.05

2023 1.00 1.01 1.03 1.03 1.01

2024 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.00

 1 These rates reflect NCHS data on deaths and Census estimates of population.
Assumptions and Methods

86

for 2020 and 2021 were used.1 Death rates by cause of death were produced

for all ages for years 1979-2020 using data from the NCHS. Note, however,

that regressions used for the model projections do not include data for 2020

and 2021 due to the elevated death rates caused by COVID-19.

The total age-sex-adjusted death rate2 declined at an average annual rate of

1.02 percent between 1900 and 2019. Between 1979 and 2019, the period for

which death rates were analyzed by cause, the total age-sex-adjusted death

rate, for all causes combined, declined at an average rate of 0.85 percent per

year.

Death rates have declined substantially in the U.S. since 1900, with rapid

declines over some periods and slow or no improvement over the other periods. Many factors are responsible for historical reductions in death rates,

including medical advances, increased availability of health-care services,

and improvements in sanitation and nutrition. Historical death rates generally

declined more slowly for older ages and more rapidly for children and

infants than for the rest of the population. Between 1900 and 2019, the agesex-adjusted death rate declined at an average rate of 0.78 percent per year

for ages 65 and over, and 2.97 percent per year for ages under 15.

Mortality assumptions differ for the low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost

scenarios. Throughout the projection period, the low-cost scenario contains

annual percentage reductions that are smaller than those in the intermediate

scenario, while those in the high-cost scenario are larger. The ultimate annual

percentage reductions for each of the three alternatives are unchanged from

last year’s report.

The trends in the annual reductions in central death rates were calculated for

the period from 2008 to 2019 for both the NCHS and Medicare data, by age

group, sex, and cause of death.3 These trends are the starting reductions for

alternative II. For alternatives I and III, 50 and 150 percent of the starting

reductions are used, respectively. These annual reductions, by alternative, are

assumed to transition rapidly from the starting reductions until they reach the

ultimate annual percentage reductions assumed for 2047 and later.

Table V.A1 contains historical and projected age-sex-adjusted death rates for

the total population (all ages), for ages under 65, and for ages 65 and over.

Age-sex adjustment eliminates the effect of a changing distribution of population by age and sex, allowing the pure effects of changes in death rates to

 1 These rates reflect Medicare data on deaths and enrollments.

 2 Based on the enumerated total population as of April 1, 2010, if that population were to experience the

death rates by age and sex for the selected year.

 3 Cause of death is only available for the NCHS data.
87

Demographic Assumptions and Methods

be observed. Under the intermediate assumptions, projected age-sex-adjusted

death rates are very slightly higher than the rates in last year’s report after

2024. These changes result from incorporating final 2019 Medicare data and

a method improvement to use single-year-of-age data instead of five-year

age group data.

The projected average annual rate of decline for the total age-sex-adjusted

death rate is about 0.39 percent, 0.86 percent, and 1.40 percent between 2022

and 2097 for alternatives I, II, and III, respectively. In keeping with the patterns observed in the historical data, the assumed future rates of decline are

greater for younger ages than for older ages, but to a substantially lesser

degree than in the past. Accordingly, the projected age-sex-adjusted death

rates for ages 65 and over decline at average annual rates of about

0.37 percent, 0.79 percent, and 1.24 percent between 2022 and 2097 for

alternatives I, II, and III, respectively. The projected age-sex-adjusted death

rates for ages under 15 decline at average annual rates of about 0.54 percent,

1.54 percent, and 2.96 percent between 2022 and 2097 for alternatives I, II,

and III, respectively. It should be noted that these average annual rates of

decline between 2022 and 2097 are not directly comparable with the rates of

decline between 2021 and 2096 in last year’s report, because the 75-year

period used for last year’s report included the pandemic year of 2021, and

the death rate assumptions for 2022-24 were revised for this year’s report to

better reflect the current expected course of the pandemic. 

Demographers express a wide range of views on the likely rate of future

decline in death rates. For example, some believe that the long-standing historical tendency for mortality to decline more slowly at the oldest ages will

cease in the future. Others believe that biological factors, social factors, and

limitations on health care spending may slow future rates of decline in mortality. 
Assumptions and Methods

88

.

Table V.A1.—Fertility and Mortality Assumptions,a

Calendar Years 1940-2100

Calendar year

Total

fertility

rateb

Age-sex-adjusted death ratec

per 100,000

Total Under 65 65 and over

Historical data:

1940 . . . . . . . . . 2.23 1,919.8 750.1 9,718.8

1945 . . . . . . . . . 2.42 1,716.6 674.8 8,662.9

1950 . . . . . . . . . 3.03 1,561.9 570.2 8,173.7

1955 . . . . . . . . . 3.50 1,453.8 508.2 7,758.4

1960 . . . . . . . . . 3.61 1,454.3 503.2 7,795.6

1965 . . . . . . . . . 2.88 1,428.8 495.2 7,653.9

1970 . . . . . . . . . 2.43 1,340.0 485.7 7,036.3

1975 . . . . . . . . . 1.77 1,204.8 426.6 6,393.6

1980 . . . . . . . . . 1.82 1,136.9 384.3 6,154.3

1985 . . . . . . . . . 1.83 1,081.0 353.3 5,932.9

1990 . . . . . . . . . 2.07 1,022.9 333.6 5,618.9

1995 . . . . . . . . . 1.98 1,002.7 317.9 5,568.6

2000 . . . . . . . . . 2.05 961.5 281.0 5,498.9

2005 . . . . . . . . . 2.06 901.9 270.7 5,110.3

2010 . . . . . . . . . 1.93 820.8 248.5 4,636.1

2015 . . . . . . . . . 1.85 815.4 255.3 4,549.7

2016 . . . . . . . . . 1.82 808.7 260.9 4,461.0

2017 . . . . . . . . . 1.76 812.8 261.6 4,487.7

2018 . . . . . . . . . 1.73 803.7 258.7 4,437.4

2019 . . . . . . . . . 1.70 792.9 257.7 4,361.0

2020 . . . . . . . . . 1.64 d922.4 305.7 d5,034.2

2021 . . . . . . . . . 1.66 e937.6 f341.5 e4,912.0

2022 . . . . . . . . . f

1.69 f860.3 f285.7 f4,691.2

Intermediate: 

2025 . . . . . . . . . 1.74 768.2 254.0 4,196.9

2030 . . . . . . . . . 1.86 738.4 243.8 4,036.1

2035 . . . . . . . . . 1.92 708.5 232.6 3,881.9

2040 . . . . . . . . . 1.97 679.9 221.5 3,736.3

2045 . . . . . . . . . 2.00 652.8 210.8 3,599.6

2050 . . . . . . . . . 2.00 627.3 200.7 3,471.3

2055 . . . . . . . . . 2.00 603.3 191.2 3,350.9

2060 . . . . . . . . . 2.00 580.7 182.2 3,237.9

2065 . . . . . . . . . 2.00 559.4 173.7 3,131.6

2070 . . . . . . . . . 2.00 539.4 165.6 3,031.5

2075 . . . . . . . . . 2.00 520.5 158.0 2,937.3

2080 . . . . . . . . . 2.00 502.7 150.9 2,848.5

2085 . . . . . . . . . 2.00 485.9 144.1 2,764.6

2090 . . . . . . . . . 2.00 469.9 137.6 2,685.4

2095 . . . . . . . . . 2.00 454.9 131.6 2,610.5

2100 . . . . . . . . . 2.00 440.6 125.8 2,539.6
89

Demographic Assumptions and Methods

3. Immigration Assumptions

Projections of the total Social Security area population reflect assumptions

for the following four annual immigration flows:

Low-cost: 

2025 . . . . . . . . . 1.87 794.3 263.4 4,333.9

2030 . . . . . . . . . 2.05 785.5 261.4 4,279.8

2035 . . . . . . . . . 2.12 775.0 257.7 4,223.7

2040 . . . . . . . . . 2.18 764.1 253.7 4,167.7

2045 . . . . . . . . . 2.20 753.3 249.5 4,112.6

2050 . . . . . . . . . 2.20 742.7 245.3 4,058.6

2055 . . . . . . . . . 2.20 732.2 241.2 4,005.7

2060 . . . . . . . . . 2.20 722.0 237.2 3,954.0

2065 . . . . . . . . . 2.20 712.0 233.3 3,903.4

2070 . . . . . . . . . 2.20 702.2 229.5 3,853.9

2075 . . . . . . . . . 2.20 692.6 225.7 3,805.4

2080 . . . . . . . . . 2.20 683.2 222.0 3,758.1

2085 . . . . . . . . . 2.20 674.0 218.4 3,711.7

2090 . . . . . . . . . 2.20 665.0 214.8 3,666.3

2095 . . . . . . . . . 2.20 656.1 211.3 3,621.9

2100 . . . . . . . . . 2.20 647.5 207.9 3,578.4

High-cost:

2025 . . . . . . . . . 1.56 736.5 242.3 4,031.0

2030 . . . . . . . . . 1.59 680.5 221.9 3,737.8

2035 . . . . . . . . . 1.63 628.2 201.7 3,471.7

2040 . . . . . . . . . 1.67 581.2 183.2 3,235.3

2045 . . . . . . . . . 1.70 539.4 166.5 3,026.0

2050 . . . . . . . . . 1.70 502.2 151.5 2,840.5

2055 . . . . . . . . . 1.70 469.0 138.1 2,675.5

2060 . . . . . . . . . 1.70 439.4 126.1 2,528.2

2065 . . . . . . . . . 1.70 412.8 115.3 2,396.1

2070 . . . . . . . . . 1.70 388.9 105.7 2,277.3

2075 . . . . . . . . . 1.70 367.3 96.9 2,169.8

2080 . . . . . . . . . 1.70 347.7 89.1 2,072.2

2085 . . . . . . . . . 1.70 329.9 82.0 1,983.2

2090 . . . . . . . . . 1.70 313.7 75.6 1,901.7

2095 . . . . . . . . . 1.70 298.9 69.7 1,826.9

2100 . . . . . . . . . 1.70 285.3 64.4 1,757.9

a This table contains basic assumptions along with key summary values that are derived from basic assumptions.

b The total fertility rate for any year is the average number of children that would be born to a woman if she

were to experience, at each age of her life, the birth rate observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if

she were to survive the entire childbearing period.

c Based on the enumerated total population as of April 1, 2010, if that population were to experience the

death rates by age and sex observed in, or assumed for, the selected year.

d Estimated using final data for ages below 65 and preliminary data for ages 65 and older.

e Estimated using the intermediate assumptions for ages below 65 and preliminary data for ages 65 and

older.

f Estimated, intermediate alternative.

Table V.A1.—Fertility and Mortality Assumptions,a

Calendar Years 1940-2100 (Cont.)

Calendar year

Total

fertility

rateb

Age-sex-adjusted death ratec

per 100,000

Total Under 65 65 and over
Assumptions and Methods

90

 • Lawful permanent resident (LPR) immigration: Persons who enter the

Social Security area and are granted LPR status, or who are already in

the Social Security area and adjust their status to become LPRs.1

 • Legal emigration: LPRs and citizens who leave the Social Security area

population. 

 • Other-than-LPR immigration: Persons who enter the Social Security

area and stay to the end of the year without being granted LPR status,

such as undocumented immigrants, and foreign workers and students

entering with temporary visas. 

 • Other-than-LPR emigration: Other-than-LPR immigrants who leave the

Social Security area population or who adjust their status to become

LPRs. 

Net LPR immigration is the difference between LPR immigration and legal

emigration. Net other-than-LPR immigration is the difference between otherthan-LPR immigration and other-than-LPR emigration. Total net immigration refers to the sum of net LPR immigration and net other-than-LPR immigration.

Immigration assumptions differ for the low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost

scenarios. The low-cost scenario includes higher annual net immigration and

the high-cost scenario includes lower annual net immigration. Table V.A2

contains historical and projected levels of various immigration flows. 

LPR immigration has increased significantly since World War II, due to various factors and legislative changes, including the Immigration Act of 1965

and the Immigration Act of 1990. 

LPR new arrival immigration dropped significantly in 2020 and 2021. LPR

new arrival immigration levels in 2020 and 2021 are estimated to be about

280,000 persons lower and 235,000 persons lower, respectively, than would

have been expected in the absence of the pandemic. For all three alternatives,

the LPR new arrival immigration levels for 2022 are assumed to be the same

as would have been assumed in the absence of the pandemic. LPR new

arrival immigration levels for 2023 and 2024 are assumed to be higher than

would have been assumed in the absence of the pandemic, fully making up

for the lower levels in 2020 and 2021. These pandemic effects on LPR new

arrival immigration levels are slightly larger than the assumed pandemic

effects in last year’s report.

 1 Persons who enter the country with legal visas but without LPR status, such as temporary foreign workers

and students, are not included in the “LPR immigration” category.
91

Demographic Assumptions and Methods

For the intermediate alternative, the ultimate level of annual LPR immigration, which includes residents who adjust their status to become LPRs, is

assumed to be 1,050,000 persons for 2025 and later. For alternative I, ultimate annual LPR immigration is assumed to be 1,250,000 persons for 2025

and later, and for alternative III, ultimate annual LPR immigration is

assumed to be 850,000 persons for 2025 and later. The ultimate levels of

LPR immigration are unchanged from last year’s report. 

The assumed ratios of annual legal emigration to LPR immigration are 20,

25, and 30 percent for alternatives I, II, and III, respectively. This range is

consistent with the limited historical data for legal emigration from the

Social Security area. These ratios are unchanged from last year’s report.

Under the intermediate alternative, by combining the ultimate annual LPR

immigration and legal emigration assumptions, ultimate annual net LPR

immigration is about 788,000 persons. For the low-cost and high-cost scenarios, ultimate annual net LPR immigration is 1,000,000 persons and

595,000 persons, respectively.

The estimated number of other-than-LPR immigrants residing in the Social

Security area and the annual level of other-than-LPR immigration were

affected significantly by the economic recession of 2007-09. Although otherthan-LPR immigration was greatly reduced during the economic downturn

and immediate years thereafter, it returned to higher levels for most years

from 2014 through 2019, reflecting a recovery from levels experienced

during the recession. The COVID-19 pandemic began to affect other-thanLPR immigration in 2020; the estimated level of other-than-LPR immigration in 2020 is about 747,000, which is 453,000 lower than would have been

estimated in the absence of the pandemic.

The Trustees assume that the pandemic will continue to affect other-thanLPR immigration in years 2021 through 2024. For each of the three alternatives, the assumed other-than-LPR immigration level for 2021 is 350,000

lower than would have been assumed in the absence of the pandemic. The

other-than-LPR immigration levels for 2022 are assumed to be the same as

would have been assumed in the absence of the pandemic. Other-than-LPR

immigration levels for 2023 and 2024 are assumed to be higher than would

have been assumed in the absence of the pandemic, fully making up for the

lower levels in 2020 and 2021. These pandemic effects on other-than-LPR

immigration levels are all smaller than the assumed pandemic effects in last

year’s report.

The ultimate annual levels of other-than-LPR immigration are 1,350,000 persons for alternative II, 1,850,000 persons for alternative I, and 850,000 persons for alternative III. These ultimate levels are unchanged from those used
Assumptions and Methods

92

in last year’s report. The ultimate levels are attained in 2025 for all three

alternatives.

Emigration from the other-than-LPR immigrant population includes those

who leave the Social Security area and those who adjust their status to

become LPRs. This other-than-LPR immigrant population is highly mobile

and far more likely to leave the Social Security area than is the citizen or

LPR population. However, as other-than-LPR immigrants stay in the country

for longer periods of time, they generally become less likely to leave the

country.

Under the intermediate assumptions, the total annual number of other-thanLPR immigrants who leave the Social Security area averages about 426,000

through the 75-year projection period. The ultimate annual number of otherthan-LPR immigrants who adjust status to become LPRs is assumed to be

450,000 for the intermediate assumptions, and is unchanged from last year’s

report. For the low-cost and high-cost scenarios, the total annual number of

other-than-LPR emigrants averages about 585,000 and 265,000, respectively,

through the 75-year projection period. The ultimate annual number of people

adjusting status to LPR status is assumed to be 550,000 persons and

350,000 persons, for the low-cost and high-cost scenarios, respectively, and

is unchanged from last year’s report. 

Under the assumptions described above, the projected size of the other-thanLPR immigrant population grows substantially, from about 15.6 million by

the end of 2023 to about 35.6 million by the end of 2097. This growth

reflects the excess of annual immigration over the combined annual numbers

of emigrants (including adjustments of status) and deaths that occur within

the other-than-LPR immigrant population.

Under the intermediate assumptions, projected net other-than-LPR immigration gradually decreases over time. Because the projected number of otherthan-LPR immigrants leaving the Social Security area is based on rates of

departure, an increase in the number of other-than-LPR immigrants residing

in the Social Security area results in an increase in the number who emigrate

out of the area. All other components of net other-than-LPR immigration are

assumed to be stable after 2024, and thus do not contribute toward any

change in annual net other-than-LPR immigration. Under the intermediate

assumptions, the projected average annual level of net other-than-LPR immigration over the 75-year projection period is about 485,000 persons. For the

low-cost and high-cost assumptions, projected average annual net other-thanLPR immigration is about 726,000 persons and 245,000 persons, respectively.
93

Demographic Assumptions and Methods

The projected average annual level of total net immigration (LPR and otherthan-LPR, combined) is about 1,277,000 persons per year during the 75-year

projection period under the intermediate assumptions. For the low-cost and

high-cost assumptions, projected average annual total net immigration is

about 1,732,000 persons and 845,000 persons, respectively.

Demographers express a wide range of views about the future course of

immigration for the United States. Some believe that net immigration will

increase substantially in the future. Others believe that potential immigrants

may be increasingly attracted to other countries, that the number of potential

immigrants may be lower due to lower birth rates in many countries, or that

changes in the law or enforcement of the law will reduce immigration. 
Assumptions and Methods

94

Table V.A2.—Immigration Assumptions,a Calendar Years 1940-2100

[In thousands]

Calendar 

year

LPR immigration Other-than-LPR immigrationb

Total net

immigration

LPR

in

Legal

out

Adjustments

of statusc d NetLPR

OtherthanLPR

in

OtherthanLPR

out

Adjustments

of statusc d

Net

otherthanLPR

Historical data:

1940 . . . . 61 15 - 46 - - - - -

1945 . . . . 73 18 - 55 - - - - -

1950 . . . . 227 57 - 171 - - - - -

1955 . . . . 280 70 - 210 - - - - -

1960 . . . . 268 67 - 201 - - - - -

1965 . . . . 261 77 49 232 - - 49 - -

1970 . . . . 307 93 65 279 - - 65 - -

1975 . . . . 340 98 53 294 - - 53 - -

1980 . . . . 430 135 112 406 - - 112 203 609

1985 . . . . 458 144 118 432 - - 118 261 693

1990 . . . . 548 166 1,061 1,443 - - 1,061 -318 1,125

1995 . . . . 511 192 258 578 - - 258 560 1,137

2000 . . . . 482 224 413 672 1,358 366 413 579 1,251

2005 . . . . 561 290 597 869 1,644 32 597 1,015 1,884

2010 . . . . 622 262 426 786 642 199 426 17 802

2015 . . . . 689 271 395 813 1,206 147 395 665 1,478

2016 . . . . 763 292 407 877 1,125 710 407 8 886

2017 . . . . 722 280 398 840 885 227 398 260 1,099

2018 . . . . 678 270 403 810 747 483 403 -139 672

2019 . . . . 508 238 443 713 1,039 893 443 -298 415

2020 . . . . 320 179 396 537 747 80 396 271 808

2021 . . . . e365 e209 e471 e627 f950 e229 e471 f250 f877

2022 . . . . f600 f263 f450 f788 f1,350 f236 f450 f664 f1,452

Intermediate: 

2025 . . . . 600 263 450 788 1,350 302 450 598 1,385

2030 . . . . 600 263 450 788 1,350 339 450 561 1,348

2035 . . . . 600 263 450 788 1,350 369 450 531 1,318

2040 . . . . 600 263 450 788 1,350 396 450 504 1,291

2045 . . . . 600 263 450 788 1,350 416 450 484 1,271

2050 . . . . 600 263 450 788 1,350 430 450 470 1,258

2055 . . . . 600 263 450 788 1,350 439 450 461 1,249

2060 . . . . 600 263 450 788 1,350 446 450 454 1,241

2065 . . . . 600 263 450 788 1,350 454 450 446 1,234

2070 . . . . 600 263 450 788 1,350 460 450 440 1,228

2075 . . . . 600 263 450 788 1,350 464 450 436 1,223

2080 . . . . 600 263 450 788 1,350 468 450 432 1,220

2085 . . . . 600 263 450 788 1,350 470 450 430 1,217

2090 . . . . 600 263 450 788 1,350 472 450 428 1,216

2095 . . . . 600 263 450 788 1,350 473 450 427 1,214

2100 . . . . 600 263 450 788 1,350 474 450 426 1,214
95

Demographic Assumptions and Methods

Low-cost: 

2025 . . . . 700 250 550 1,000 1,850 343 550 957 1,957

2030 . . . . 700 250 550 1,000 1,850 412 550 888 1,888

2035 . . . . 700 250 550 1,000 1,850 470 550 830 1,830

2040 . . . . 700 250 550 1,000 1,850 521 550 779 1,779

2045 . . . . 700 250 550 1,000 1,850 562 550 738 1,738

2050 . . . . 700 250 550 1,000 1,850 591 550 709 1,709

2055 . . . . 700 250 550 1,000 1,850 612 550 688 1,688

2060 . . . . 700 250 550 1,000 1,850 629 550 671 1,671

2065 . . . . 700 250 550 1,000 1,850 643 550 657 1,657

2070 . . . . 700 250 550 1,000 1,850 653 550 647 1,647

2075 . . . . 700 250 550 1,000 1,850 661 550 639 1,639

2080 . . . . 700 250 550 1,000 1,850 667 550 633 1,633

2085 . . . . 700 250 550 1,000 1,850 670 550 630 1,630

2090 . . . . 700 250 550 1,000 1,850 673 550 627 1,627

2095 . . . . 700 250 550 1,000 1,850 674 550 626 1,626

2100 . . . . 700 250 550 1,000 1,850 675 550 625 1,625

High-cost:

2025 . . . . 500 255 350 595 850 263 350 237 832

2030 . . . . 500 255 350 595 850 267 350 233 828

2035 . . . . 500 255 350 595 850 269 350 231 826

2040 . . . . 500 255 350 595 850 271 350 229 824

2045 . . . . 500 255 350 595 850 270 350 230 825

2050 . . . . 500 255 350 595 850 268 350 232 827

2055 . . . . 500 255 350 595 850 264 350 236 831

2060 . . . . 500 255 350 595 850 262 350 238 833

2065 . . . . 500 255 350 595 850 263 350 237 832

2070 . . . . 500 255 350 595 850 263 350 237 832

2075 . . . . 500 255 350 595 850 264 350 236 831

2080 . . . . 500 255 350 595 850 265 350 235 830

2085 . . . . 500 255 350 595 850 265 350 235 830

2090 . . . . 500 255 350 595 850 266 350 234 829

2095 . . . . 500 255 350 595 850 266 350 234 829

2100 . . . . 500 255 350 595 850 267 350 233 828

a This table contains basic assumptions along with key summary values that are derived from basic assumptions.

b Historical other-than-LPR immigration and emigration estimates depend on a residual method. The Office

of the Chief Actuary developed these estimates, as well as the resulting other-than-LPR January 1 stock

estimates, for years through 2000. For years 2001 and later, the residual method uses stock estimates. For

2001 through 2004, the stock is set to values that linearly grade from the 2000 stock estimate to the 2005

stock estimate. Stock estimates are developed by the Office of the Chief Actuary, based on the latest methods used by DHS.

c Estimates include persons who attained LPR status under the special one-time provisions of the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986.

d Adjustments of status are a positive for net LPR immigration and a negative for net other-than-LPR immigration.

e Estimated.

f Estimated, intermediate alternative.

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Table V.A2.—Immigration Assumptions,a Calendar Years 1940-2100 (Cont.)

[In thousands]

Calendar 

year

LPR immigration Other-than-LPR immigrationb

Total net

immigration

LPR

in

Legal

out

Adjustments

of statusc d NetLPR

OtherthanLPR

in

OtherthanLPR

out

Adjustments

of statusc d

Net

otherthanLPR
Assumptions and Methods

96

4. Total Population Estimates

The starting Social Security area population for December 31, 2020, is

derived from the Census Bureau’s estimate of the residents of the 50 States

and D.C. and U.S. Armed Forces overseas. Adjustments are made to reflect

mortality assumptions for the aged population since 2010 that are consistent

with Medicare and Social Security data, net immigration assumptions for the

aged population since 2010, estimates of the net undercount in the 2010 census, inclusion of U.S. citizens living abroad (including residents of U.S. territories), and inclusion of non-citizens living abroad who are insured for Social

Security benefits. The Office of the Chief Actuary projects the population in

the Social Security area by age, sex, and marital status for December 31 of

each year from 2021 through 2097 by combining the assumptions for future

fertility, mortality, and immigration with assumptions for marriage and

divorce. Previous sections of this chapter present the assumptions for future

fertility, mortality, and immigration. Assumptions for future rates of marriage and divorce reflect historical data from the National Center for Health

Statistics, the Census Bureau, and selected individual States. 

This report presents a July 1 (i.e., midyear) population for each year, which

is derived from surrounding December populations. Table V.A3 shows the

historical and projected population for July 1 by broad age group, for the

three alternatives. It also shows the aged and total dependency ratios (see

table footnotes for definitions).
97

Demographic Assumptions and Methods

Table V.A3.—Social Security Area Population on July 1 and Dependency Ratios,

Calendar Years 1945-2100

Calendar year

Population (in thousands) Dependency ratio

Under 20 20-64

65 and

over Total Ageda Totalb

Historical data:

1945 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49,107 87,891 10,886 147,883 0.124 0.683

1950 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53,918 92,190 12,789 158,897 .139 .724

1955 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63,337 96,003 15,161 174,501 .158 .818

1960 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72,915 99,752 17,323 189,990 .174 .905

1965 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80,002 104,863 19,153 204,018 .183 .946

1970 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80,856 112,953 21,007 214,815 .186 .902

1975 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78,577 122,594 23,370 224,541 .191 .832

1980 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74,841 134,029 26,315 235,184 .196 .755

1985 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72,892 144,585 29,129 246,607 .201 .706

1990 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74,791 152,731 31,926 259,449 .209 .699

1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79,287 160,735 34,294 274,317 .213 .707

2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81,980 170,139 35,500 287,619 .209 .690

2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83,906 180,823 37,123 301,853 .205 .669

2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85,673 188,274 41,044 314,990 .218 .673

2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84,427 193,533 47,768 325,727 .247 .683

2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84,400 194,256 49,264 327,920 .254 .688

2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84,260 194,749 50,784 329,793 .261 .693

2018 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83,992 195,104 52,358 331,455 .268 .699

2019 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83,653 195,036 53,982 332,671 .277 .706

2020c . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83,298 194,877 55,493 333,667 .285 .712

2021d . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82,893 194,834 56,852 334,578 .292 .717

2022d . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82,723 194,907 58,367 335,997 .299 .724

Intermediate:

2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82,861 197,082 63,420 343,362 .322 .742

2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82,828 200,212 70,995 354,034 .355 .768

2035 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85,114 203,819 75,441 364,374 .370 .788

2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88,689 207,392 77,896 373,977 .376 .803

2045 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92,732 210,257 79,585 382,575 .379 .820

2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95,086 213,249 81,948 390,283 .384 .830

2055 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96,280 216,458 85,080 397,818 .393 .838

2060 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97,298 219,807 88,922 406,027 .405 .847

2065 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99,029 223,674 92,471 415,174 .413 .856

2070 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101,697 226,944 96,192 424,833 .424 .872

2075 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104,716 229,517 100,175 434,408 .436 .893

2080 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107,286 233,759 102,562 443,607 .439 .898

2085 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109,129 239,433 104,013 452,575 .434 .890

2090 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110,652 246,086 104,972 461,710 .427 .876

2095 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112,417 251,691 107,207 471,315 .426 .873

2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114,662 256,318 110,479 481,459 .431 .878
Assumptions and Methods

98

Notes:

1. Historical data are subject to revision.

2. Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Low-cost:

2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84,418 198,745 63,296 346,458 0.318 0.743

2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87,253 203,791 70,476 361,520 .346 .774

2035 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92,920 209,278 74,306 376,504 .355 .799

2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100,023 214,663 76,000 390,686 .354 .820

2045 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106,934 219,951 76,896 403,781 .350 .836

2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111,039 226,626 78,526 416,191 .346 .836

2055 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113,963 233,994 81,050 429,007 .346 .833

2060 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117,406 241,543 84,410 443,359 .349 .836

2065 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122,333 249,500 87,555 459,388 .351 .841

2070 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128,470 257,005 90,841 476,316 .353 .853

2075 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134,696 264,362 94,311 493,369 .357 .866

2080 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139,946 274,208 96,193 510,347 .351 .861

2085 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144,201 286,248 97,169 527,618 .339 .843

2090 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148,393 299,069 98,298 545,760 .329 .825

2095 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153,341 309,943 101,804 565,088 .328 .823

2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159,119 319,668 106,719 585,506 .334 .832

High-cost:

2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81,094 195,509 63,586 340,189 .325 .740

2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77,541 196,823 71,689 346,053 .364 .758

2035 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75,687 198,661 76,970 351,318 .387 .768

2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74,922 200,530 80,458 355,910 .401 .775

2045 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75,517 200,820 83,231 359,568 .414 .790

2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75,991 199,521 86,595 362,106 .434 .815

2055 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75,444 197,825 90,547 363,816 .458 .839

2060 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74,065 196,139 95,002 365,206 .484 .862

2065 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72,628 195,037 98,988 366,654 .508 .880

2070 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71,842 193,179 103,102 368,123 .534 .906

2075 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71,694 190,053 107,489 369,235 .566 .943

2080 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71,724 187,720 110,214 369,657 .587 .969

2085 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71,443 185,982 111,904 369,329 .602 .986

2090 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70,744 185,631 112,105 368,480 .604 .985

2095 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69,896 185,620 111,877 367,394 .603 .979

2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69,235 184,999 112,060 366,294 .606 .980

a Ratio of the population at ages 65 and over to the population at ages 20-64.

b Ratio of the population at ages 65 and over and the population under age 20 to the population at

ages 20-64.

c Estimated.

d Estimated, intermediate alternative.

Table V.A3.—Social Security Area Population on July 1 and Dependency Ratios,

Calendar Years 1945-2100 (Cont.)

Calendar year

Population (in thousands) Dependency ratio

Under 20 20-64

65 and

over Total Ageda Totalb
99

Demographic Assumptions and Methods

5. Life Expectancy Estimates

Life expectancy, or the average remaining number of years expected prior to

death, is an additional way to summarize the Trustees’ mortality assumptions. This report includes life expectancy at both birth and at age 65, in two

different forms (period and cohort), which are useful for separate purposes.

 • Period life expectancy at a selected age for a particular year incorporates the actual or expected death rates at the selected age and each

older age for that year. It is a useful summary statistic for illustrating the

overall level of the death rates at or above the given age experienced in

a single year. Period life expectancy for a particular year provides an

individual’s expected average remaining lifetime at a selected age,

assuming no change in death rates after that year. Table V.A4 presents

historical and projected life expectancy calculated on a period basis. 

 • Cohort life expectancy does not incorporate death rates for a single

year, but for the series of years in which the individual will actually

reach each succeeding age if he or she survives. Cohort life expectancy

provides the expected average remaining lifetime for an individual at a

selected age in a particular year, using actual or expected future death

rates for the selected age and all succeeding ages. Table V.A5 presents

historical and projected life expectancy calculated on a cohort basis.

Cohort life expectancy is generally greater than period life expectancy

for a given year because: (1) death rates at any age generally decline

over time; and (2) cohort life expectancy uses death rates for future

years, while period life expectancy uses death rates only for the given

year.

Life expectancy at a given age reflects death rates at that and all older ages.

Period life expectancy is somewhat related to the age-sex-adjusted death rate

discussed in section V.A.2. However, life expectancy places far greater

weight on death rates at relatively younger ages (those at or just above the

given age) than those at relatively older ages. Therefore, changes in death

rates at young ages, particularly in infancy, affect life expectancy at birth to a

much greater degree than changes in death rates at older ages. It is important

to keep this concept in mind when considering trends in life expectancy. 
Assumptions and Methods

100

Table V.A4.—Period Life Expectancya

a The period life expectancy at a given age for a given year is the average remaining number of years

expected prior to death for a person at that exact age, born on January 1, using the mortality rates for that

year over the course of his or her remaining life.

Historical data

Calendar

year

At birth At age 65

Male Female Male Female

1940 . . . . 61.4 65.7 11.9 13.4

1945 . . . . 62.9 68.4 12.6 14.4

1950 . . . . 65.6 71.1 12.8 15.1

1955 . . . . 66.7 72.8 13.1 15.6

1960 . . . . 66.7 73.2 12.9 15.9

1965 . . . . 66.8 73.8 12.9 16.3

1970 . . . . 67.1 74.9 13.1 17.1

1975 . . . . 68.7 76.6 13.7 18.0

1980 . . . . 69.9 77.5 14.0 18.4

1985 . . . . 71.1 78.2 14.4 18.6

1990 . . . . 71.8 78.9 15.0 19.0

1995 . . . . 72.5 79.1 15.4 19.0

2000 . . . . 74.0 79.4 15.9 19.0

2005 . . . . 74.8 80.0 16.7 19.5

2010 . . . . 76.1 80.9 17.5 20.2

2015 . . . . 76.1 80.9 17.8 20.3

2016 . . . . 76.0 81.0 17.9 20.5

2017 . . . . 76.0 81.0 17.9 20.5

2018 . . . . 76.1 81.1 18.0 20.5

2019 . . . . 76.2 81.3 18.1 20.7

2020b . . .

b Estimated using final data for ages below 65 and preliminary data for ages 65 and older.

74.1 79.8 16.9 19.7

2021c . . .

c Estimated using the intermediate assumptions for ages below 65 and preliminary data for ages 65 and older.

73.5 79.3 17.0 19.8

2022d . . .

d Estimated, intermediate alternative.

75.1 80.3 17.5 20.1

Intermediate Low-cost High-cost

Calendar

year

At birth At age 65 At birth At age 65 At birth At age 65

Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female

2025 . . . . 76.6 81.6 18.4 21.0 76.1 81.2 18.2 20.7 77.1 82.1 18.8 21.3

2030 . . . . 77.1 82.1 18.8 21.3 76.2 81.4 18.3 20.8 78.2 83.0 19.4 21.9

2035 . . . . 77.6 82.5 19.1 21.6 76.4 81.5 18.4 20.9 79.2 83.8 20.0 22.4

2040 . . . . 78.1 83.0 19.4 21.9 76.6 81.7 18.5 21.0 80.2 84.6 20.6 23.0

2045 . . . . 78.7 83.4 19.7 22.2 76.8 81.8 18.6 21.1 81.1 85.4 21.2 23.5

2050 . . . . 79.2 83.8 20.0 22.4 77.0 82.0 18.7 21.2 82.0 86.1 21.7 24.0

2055 . . . . 79.7 84.3 20.3 22.7 77.2 82.2 18.8 21.3 82.9 86.8 22.2 24.4

2060 . . . . 80.2 84.7 20.6 23.0 77.3 82.3 18.9 21.4 83.7 87.5 22.7 24.8

2065 . . . . 80.7 85.0 20.9 23.2 77.5 82.5 19.0 21.5 84.4 88.1 23.2 25.3

2070 . . . . 81.1 85.4 21.2 23.5 77.7 82.6 19.1 21.6 85.1 88.6 23.7 25.6

2075 . . . . 81.6 85.8 21.4 23.7 77.9 82.8 19.3 21.7 85.8 89.1 24.1 26.0

2080 . . . . 82.0 86.1 21.7 23.9 78.1 82.9 19.4 21.8 86.4 89.6 24.5 26.4

2085 . . . . 82.4 86.5 22.0 24.2 78.3 83.1 19.5 21.9 87.0 90.1 24.9 26.7

2090 . . . . 82.9 86.8 22.2 24.4 78.4 83.2 19.6 22.0 87.6 90.5 25.2 27.0

2095 . . . . 83.3 87.1 22.5 24.6 78.6 83.4 19.7 22.1 88.1 91.0 25.6 27.3

2100 . . . . 83.6 87.4 22.7 24.8 78.8 83.5 19.8 22.2 88.6 91.3 25.9 27.6
101

Demographic Assumptions and Methods

Table V.A5.—Cohort Life Expectancya

a The cohort life expectancy at a given age for a given year is the average remaining number of years

expected prior to death for a person at that exact age, born on January 1, using the mortality rates for the

series of years in which the individual will actually reach each succeeding age if he or she survives.

Calendar

year

Intermediate Low-cost High-cost

At birth b At age 65 c At birth b

b Cohort life expectancy at birth for those born in the calendar year is based on a combination of actual, estimated, and projected death rates for birth years 1940 through 2020. For birth years after 2020, these values

depend on estimated and projected death rates.

At age 65 c

c Age 65 cohort life expectancy for those attaining age 65 in calendar years 1940 through 2019 is based on a

combination of actual, estimated, and projected death rates. After 2019, these values depend on estimated

and projected death rates.

At birth b At age 65 c

Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female

1940 . . . . 70.2 76.4 12.7 14.7 70.1 76.3 12.7 14.7 70.3 76.6 12.7 14.7

1945 . . . . 71.9 78.0 13.0 15.4 71.7 77.8 13.0 15.4 72.1 78.3 13.0 15.4

1950 . . . . 73.0 79.4 13.1 16.2 72.7 79.0 13.1 16.2 73.4 79.9 13.1 16.2

1955 . . . . 73.6 79.9 13.1 16.7 73.1 79.3 13.1 16.7 74.2 80.6 13.1 16.7

1960 . . . . 74.2 80.2 13.2 17.4 73.5 79.5 13.2 17.4 75.1 81.2 13.2 17.4

1965 . . . . 75.0 80.8 13.5 18.0 74.2 79.8 13.5 18.0 76.3 82.1 13.5 18.0

1970 . . . . 76.2 81.6 13.8 18.5 75.1 80.5 13.8 18.5 77.8 83.2 13.8 18.5

1975 . . . . 77.1 82.3 14.2 18.7 75.6 80.9 14.2 18.7 79.0 84.2 14.2 18.7

1980 . . . . 77.7 83.0 14.7 18.8 76.0 81.3 14.7 18.8 80.1 85.1 14.7 18.8

1985 . . . . 78.3 83.5 15.4 19.1 76.3 81.6 15.4 19.1 81.0 85.9 15.4 19.1

1990 . . . . 78.9 83.9 16.0 19.3 76.6 81.8 16.0 19.3 81.9 86.6 16.0 19.3

1995 . . . . 79.5 84.5 16.7 19.7 76.9 82.1 16.7 19.6 82.8 87.4 16.7 19.7

2000 . . . . 80.0 84.9 17.3 20.0 77.1 82.3 17.3 19.9 83.6 88.0 17.4 20.1

2005 . . . . 80.5 85.3 17.8 20.4 77.3 82.5 17.7 20.3 84.4 88.6 17.9 20.6

2010 . . . . 81.0 85.7 18.2 20.8 77.6 82.7 17.9 20.5 85.2 89.1 18.5 21.2

2015 . . . . 81.5 86.0 18.5 21.1 77.8 82.8 18.1 20.7 85.9 89.7 19.0 21.8

2016 . . . . 81.6 86.1 18.5 21.2 77.8 82.8 18.1 20.7 86.0 89.8 19.1 21.9

2017 . . . . 81.7 86.2 18.6 21.3 77.9 82.9 18.1 20.7 86.2 89.9 19.3 22.0

2018 . . . . 81.8 86.3 18.6 21.3 77.9 82.9 18.1 20.8 86.3 90.0 19.4 22.1

2019 . . . . 81.9 86.3 18.7 21.4 78.0 83.0 18.2 20.8 86.5 90.1 19.5 22.2

2020 . . . . 82.0 86.4 18.8 21.5 78.0 83.0 18.2 20.8 86.6 90.2 19.6 22.3

2021 . . . . 82.1 86.5 18.9 21.6 78.0 83.0 18.2 20.9 86.7 90.3 19.8 22.5

2022 . . . . 82.2 86.5 19.0 21.7 78.1 83.0 18.3 20.9 86.9 90.4 20.0 22.7

2025 . . . . 82.4 86.8 19.3 21.9 78.2 83.1 18.4 21.0 87.3 90.7 20.5 23.1

2030 . . . . 82.9 87.1 19.6 22.2 78.4 83.3 18.5 21.1 87.9 91.2 21.1 23.6

2035 . . . . 83.3 87.5 19.9 22.5 78.5 83.4 18.7 21.2 88.5 91.7 21.7 24.1

2040 . . . . 83.7 87.8 20.2 22.7 78.7 83.6 18.8 21.3 89.1 92.1 22.2 24.6

2045 . . . . 84.1 88.1 20.5 23.0 78.9 83.7 18.9 21.4 89.7 92.5 22.8 25.1

2050 . . . . 84.5 88.4 20.8 23.3 79.1 83.9 19.0 21.5 90.2 92.9 23.3 25.5

2055 . . . . 84.9 88.7 21.1 23.5 79.3 84.0 19.1 21.6 90.7 93.2 23.8 25.9

2060 . . . . 85.3 89.0 21.4 23.8 79.4 84.2 19.2 21.7 91.1 93.6 24.2 26.3

2065 . . . . 85.6 89.2 21.7 24.0 79.6 84.3 19.3 21.8 91.6 93.9 24.6 26.6

2070 . . . . 86.0 89.5 22.0 24.2 79.8 84.4 19.4 21.9 92.0 94.2 25.0 27.0

2075 . . . . 86.3 89.8 22.2 24.5 79.9 84.6 19.5 22.0 92.4 94.5 25.4 27.3

2080 . . . . 86.6 90.0 22.5 24.7 80.1 84.7 19.6 22.1 92.8 94.8 25.8 27.6

2085 . . . . 86.9 90.2 22.7 24.9 80.3 84.8 19.7 22.2 93.2 95.1 26.2 27.9

2090 . . . . 87.2 90.5 23.0 25.1 80.4 85.0 19.8 22.3 93.5 95.4 26.5 28.2

2095 . . . . 87.5 90.7 23.2 25.3 80.6 85.1 19.9 22.4 93.9 95.7 26.8 28.5

2100 . . . . 87.8 90.9 23.4 25.5 80.7 85.2 20.0 22.5 94.2 95.9 27.2 28.7
Assumptions and Methods

102

B. ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS

The three alternative sets of economic assumptions are intended to provide a

reasonable range for estimating the future financial status of the trust funds.

The intermediate assumptions reflect the Trustees’ consensus expectation of

moderate economic growth after completion of the recovery from the pandemic-induced recession and a period of slow growth in 2023, and their best

estimates for other economic parameters. The low-cost assumptions represent a more optimistic outlook with a faster recovery to a higher level of economic output, stronger long-term economic growth, and relatively optimistic

levels for other parameters. The high-cost assumptions represent a more pessimistic scenario with a recession in 2023, slower economic growth in the

long term, and relatively pessimistic levels for other parameters.

Actual economic data were generally available through the third quarter of

2022 at the time the assumptions for this report were set. Those data indicate

that economic activity reached a peak in the fourth quarter of 2019.1 The

recession started in the first quarter of 2020 due to the precipitous decline in

economic activity in March of 2020, continuing in April of 2020, leading to

the gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2020 being almost

10 percent below the peak in the fourth quarter of 2019, expressed in constant 2012 dollars. GDP recovered rapidly, surpassing the fourth quarter

2019 peak in the first quarter of 2021. In the third quarter of 2022, GDP was

about 4 percent above the previous peak.

Under the intermediate assumptions, the economy is estimated to be

1 percent above its sustainable trend level of output in the third quarter of

2022 and is then projected to grow slowly, reaching a level of almost

1 percent below the sustainable trend level at the end of 2023. Stronger

growth is projected thereafter, with GDP reaching and stabilizing at the sustainable trend level in the first quarter of 2027. The sustainable trend level of

GDP is assumed to be 3 percent lower at the end of 2025 and thereafter than

was assumed for the intermediate assumptions in the 2022 report. Under the

low-cost assumptions, the economy is projected to grow at a faster rate and

return to a higher sustainable trend level of output in the first quarter of 2026.

Under the high-cost assumptions, the sustainable trend level is assumed to be

lower, and GDP was significantly above it in 2022; GDP is projected to fall

to 2.5 percent below that lower sustainable trend level in the fourth quarter of

2023 and then to recover fully by the fourth quarter of 2027. Complete eco-

 1 On a monthly basis, economic activity peaked in February 2020, but the decline in March was sharp

enough that the output in the first quarter of 2020 was substantially below the output in the fourth quarter of

2019. See www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-june-8-2020. 
103

Economic Assumptions and Methods

nomic cycles have little effect on the long-range estimates of financial status

of the trust funds, so the assumptions do not include cycles beyond the shortrange period (2023 through 2032).

The key economic assumptions underlying the three sets of projections of the

future financial status of the OASI and DI Trust Funds are discussed in the

remainder of this section.

1. Productivity Assumptions

Total U.S. economy productivity is defined as the ratio of real GDP to hours

worked by all workers.1 The rate of change in total-economy productivity is

a major determinant of the growth of average earnings. Over the last six

complete economic cycles (1969-73, 1973-79, 1979-90, 1990-2001,

2001-07, and 2007-19, measured peak to peak), the annual increase in totaleconomy productivity averaged 2.64, 1.06, 1.39, 1.84, 2.15, and

1.09 percent, respectively. For the period from 1969 to 2019, covering those

last six complete economic cycles, the annual increase in total-economy productivity averaged 1.57 percent.

The assumed ultimate annual increase in total-economy productivity is 1.93,

1.63, and 1.33 percent for the low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost assumptions, respectively.2 These rates of increase are unchanged from the 2022

report. 

The average annual rate of change in total-economy productivity from 2019

(the end of the last complete economic cycle) to 2022 is estimated to be

1.52 percent. For the intermediate assumptions, the annual rate of change in

productivity is assumed to be 0.18 percent for 2023, 1.11 percent for 2024,

averages 1.47 percent for 2025 through 2028, and reaches its ultimate value

of 1.63 percent for 2029 and thereafter. For the low-cost assumptions, the

annual rate of change in productivity is 0.87 percent for 2023, averages

2.00 percent for 2024 through 2027, and reaches its ultimate value of

1.93 percent for 2028 and thereafter. For the high-cost assumptions, the

assumed recession lowers the annual rate of change in productivity to

-1.71 percent for 2023. The growth rate rebounds to an average of

1.49 percent for 2024 through 2027, averages 1.28 percent for 2028 through

2030, and stabilizes at its ultimate value of 1.33 percent for 2031 and there-

 1 Historical levels of real GDP are from the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) produced by the

Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Historical total hours worked are provided by the Bureau of Labor

Statistics (BLS) and cover all U.S. Armed Forces and civilian employment.

 2 These assumptions for total-economy productivity are consistent with ultimate annual increases in private

nonfarm business productivity of 2.36, 2.00, and 1.63 percent. Private nonfarm business productivity

excludes the farm, government, nonprofit institution, and private household sectors.
Assumptions and Methods

104

after. The combined effect of data revisions, new data for 2022, and less optimistic near-term projections lowered the average productivity growth rate

from 2019 to 2032 from 1.67 percent in the 2022 report to 1.40 percent for

this report under the intermediate assumptions.

2. Price Inflation Assumptions

Changes in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical

Workers (CPI) directly affect the OASDI program through the automatic

cost-of-living benefit increases. Changes in the GDP price index (GDP deflator) affect the nominal levels of GDP, wages, self-employment income, average earnings, and taxable payroll. For a given real rate of growth in average

earnings, a higher price inflation rate immediately results in a higher nominal

rate of growth in both earnings and revenues, while the resulting added

growth in nominal benefit levels occurs with a delay, causing an overall

increase (improvement) in the actuarial balance. Similarly, a lower price

inflation rate causes an overall decrease in the actuarial balance. 

The annual increase in the CPI averaged 4.91, 8.54, 5.30, 2.73, 2.63, and

1.73 percent over the economic cycles 1969-73, 1973-79, 1979-90,

1990-2001, 2001-07, and 2007-19, respectively.1 The annual increase in the

GDP deflator averaged 5.04, 7.54, 4.61, 2.08, 2.52, and 1.62 percent for the

respective economic cycles. For the period from 1969 to 2019, covering the

last six complete economic cycles, the annual increase in the CPI and the

GDP deflator averaged 3.89 and 3.45 percent, respectively. The annual rate

of change for 2020, which was affected by the recession, was 1.21 percent

for the CPI and 1.35 percent for the GDP deflator. During the subsequent

recovery, aggregate demand increased while supply was constrained, leading

to a 2021 growth rate of 5.26 percent for the CPI and 4.49 percent for the

GDP deflator and an estimated 2022 growth rate of 8.51 percent for the CPI

and 7.03 percent for the GDP deflator.

The assumed ultimate annual increase in the CPI is 3.00, 2.40, and

1.80 percent for the low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost assumptions,

respectively. These values are unchanged from the 2022 report. 

For the intermediate assumptions, the annual rate of change in the CPI is

4.00 percent for 2023, 2.53 percent for 2024, and reaches the ultimate

 1 BLS produces a series called the Consumer Price Index Research Series Using Current Methods

(CPI-U-RS) that approximates the measured rate of inflation since 1978 had the method currently used been

in effect since then. BLS does not revise the CPI values published in earlier years, for which different methods were used. These CPI published values are shown in table V.B1. The Trustees use an adjusted CPI series

based on the CPI-U-RS when setting the ultimate price inflation assumption because it provides a time series

that is consistent with the current method for computing the CPI.
105

Economic Assumptions and Methods

growth rate of 2.40 percent for 2025 and thereafter. For the low-cost assumptions, the annual rate of change in the CPI is 3.90 percent for 2023, 3.02 percent for 2024, and reaches its ultimate growth rate of 3.00 percent for 2025

and thereafter. For the high-cost assumptions, the annual rate of change in

the CPI is 4.56 percent for 2023, 2.92 percent for 2024, 1.86 percent for

2025, and reaches its ultimate growth rate of 1.80 percent for 2026 and thereafter. 

The annual increase in the GDP deflator differs from the annual increase in

the CPI because the two indices are constructed using different computational methods and coverage (the set of goods and services used in the measurement). The difference between the rate of change in the CPI and the rate

of change in the GDP deflator is called the price differential in this report.

For the period including 1969 through 2019, covering the last six complete

economic cycles, the average annual price differential was 0.46 percentage

point. For 2020, the annual price differential was -0.13 percentage point, for

2021 it was 0.77 percentage point, and for 2022 it is estimated to be

1.49 percentage points.

The fluctuations in the price differential for 2020-22 primarily reflect a

decline and subsequent increase in oil prices, as well as price increases concentrated in consumer goods categories during the economic recovery.

Changes in oil prices affect the CPI much more than the GDP deflator

because oil comprises a much larger share of U.S. consumption than of U.S.

production. Oil prices are assumed to grow at a relatively stable rate in the

future. For the intermediate assumptions, the price differential is

0.11 percentage point for 2023, 0.36 percentage point for 2024, and

0.35 percentage point for 2025 and later.

The assumed ultimate price differential is 0.25, 0.35, and 0.45 percentage

point for the low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost alternative, respectively.

Varying the ultimate projected price differential across alternatives recognizes the historical variation in this measure. Accordingly, the assumed ultimate annual increase in the GDP deflator is 2.75 (3.00 less 0.25), 2.05 (2.40

less 0.35), and 1.35 (1.80 less 0.45) percent for the low-cost, intermediate,

and high-cost alternative, respectively. The ultimate price differentials for the

three alternatives are unchanged from the 2022 report.

3. Average Earnings Assumptions

The size of the taxable payroll—the main source of the OASDI program’s

income—for each year depends primarily on the nominal earnings in OASDI
Assumptions and Methods

106

covered employment, which is the product of covered employment1 for the

year and average covered earnings for the year. Average covered earnings

also affects the future level of average benefits. In addition, the average

reported annual wage in the U.S. economy determines the national average

wage index (AWI). Under the automatic adjustment provisions in the law, the

growth in the AWI affects the contribution and benefit base, certain parameters used in the OASDI benefit formula, and certain other program parameters.2

The projected growth rate in average annual covered earnings and in the

AWI are derived from the projected growth rate in average U.S. earnings.

Average U.S. earnings is defined as the ratio of the sum of total U.S. wages

and net proprietors’ income to the sum of average weekly U.S. civilian

employment and Armed Forces. The growth rate in average U.S. earnings for

any period is equal to the combined growth rates for total U.S. economy productivity, average hours worked per week, the ratio of earnings to total labor

compensation (which includes fringe benefits), the ratio of total labor compensation to GDP, and the GDP deflator.

The average annual change in average hours worked per week was

-0.20 percent over the last six complete economic cycles covering the period

from 1969 to 2019. The annual change in average hours worked averaged

-0.87, -0.53, -0.09, 0.11, -0.47, and -0.05 percent over the economic cycles

1969-73, 1973-79, 1979-90, 1990-2001, 2001-07, and 2007-19, respectively.

From 2019 to 2022, the first three years after the peak of the last complete

cycle, the average annual change in average hours worked per week is estimated to be a decrease of 0.03 percent.

The assumed ultimate annual rate of change for average hours worked per

week is 0.05, -0.05, and -0.15 percent for the low-cost, intermediate, and

high-cost assumptions, respectively. These values are unchanged from the

2022 report.

The average annual change in the ratio of earnings to total labor compensation was -0.14 percent from 1969 to 2019. Data from BEA indicate that the

most significant component of this change was the relative increase in the

cost of employer-sponsored group health insurance (ESGHI) for wage workers, followed by the increase in employer contributions to social insurance

(as statutory payroll tax rates increased between 1970 and 1990), and, to a

lesser extent, an increase in employer contributions to retirement plans.

 1 Covered employment for a year is defined as the total number of persons who have any OASDI covered

earnings (that is, earnings subject to the OASDI payroll tax) at any time during that year. See section V.C.2

for a more detailed discussion of covered employment.

 2 See section V.C.1 for a discussion of the AWI and the parameters indexed to it.
107

Economic Assumptions and Methods

Assuming that the level of total employee compensation is not affected by

the amount of non-wage compensation, such as ESGHI, any increase or

decrease in the cost of non-wage compensation leads to a commensurate

decrease or increase in wages. Projections of future ratios of earnings to total

labor compensation follow this principle.

The average annual rate of change in the ratio of wages to employee compensation was -0.17 percent from 1969 to 2019. The average annual rate of

change in this ratio increased sharply to 0.40 percent for the period 2019 to

2022 due to the unusual effects of the pandemic-induced recession. The average annual rate from 2022 to 2032 is assumed to be about 0.02, -0.08, and

-0.13 percent for the low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost assumptions,

respectively. For the last 65 years of the long-range period, from 2032 to

2097, the average rate is assumed to be about 0.00, -0.10, and -0.20 percent

for the low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost assumptions, respectively.

These average rates are slightly higher (i.e., less negative) than those

assumed for the 2022 report. Under the intermediate assumptions, the ratio

of wages to employee compensation declines from 0.824 for 2022 to 0.767

for 2097.

Because earnings and compensation are the same for self-employed workers,

the ratio of earnings to total labor compensation includes self-employment

income both in the numerator and in the denominator. As a result, the rate of

change in the ratio of earnings to total labor compensation (which, under the

intermediate assumptions, averages -0.08 percent from 2032 to 2097) is

slightly higher (i.e., less negative) than the rate of change in the ratio of

wages to employee compensation.

The ratio of total labor compensation (i.e., employee compensation and net

proprietors’ income) to GDP varies over the economic cycle and with

changes in the relative sizes of different sectors of the economy. Over the last

six complete economic cycles from 1969 to 2019, this ratio has averaged

0.622. This ratio increased to 0.628 for 2020, declined to 0.613 for 2021, and

is estimated to decrease to 0.605 for 2022. It is then projected to gradually

rise to reach 0.628 by 2032 under the intermediate assumptions. For years

after 2032, the relative sizes of different sectors of the economy are assumed

to remain about constant,1 and therefore the ratio of total labor compensation

to GDP remains at about the 2032 level for each set of assumptions.

 1 The sole exception is employment in the U.S. Armed Forces, which has declined in size over the last

40 years and is assumed to remain at its 2020 level throughout the 75-year projection period.
Assumptions and Methods

108

For the intermediate assumptions, the projected average annual growth rate

in average nominal U.S. earnings from 2022 to 2032 is 3.95 percent. The

projected average annual growth rate from 2032 to 2097 is 3.58 percent,

which reflects the assumed ultimate annual growth rates of 1.63 percent for

productivity, -0.05 percent for average hours worked, 2.05 percent for the

GDP deflator, and -0.08 percent for the ratio of earnings to total labor compensation. Over the same period, the projected average annual growth rate in

average nominal U.S. earnings is 4.79 percent for the low-cost assumptions

and 2.37 percent for the high-cost assumptions.

The average annual wage in OASDI covered employment (often referred to

as the “average covered wage”) is defined as the total wages and salaries

paid in OASDI covered employment during the year, divided by the number

of workers who worked in OASDI covered employment at any time during

the year. Over long periods, the average annual growth rate in the average

covered wage is expected to be very close to the average annual growth rate

in average U.S. earnings. The estimated annual rate of change in the average

covered wage is 4.79 percent for 2022 under the intermediate assumptions.

From 2022 to 2032, the annual rate of change in the average covered wage

averages 5.37, 3.99, and 2.97 percent for the low-cost, intermediate, and

high-cost assumptions, respectively. The projected average annual growth

rate in the average covered wage from 2032 to 2097 is 4.79, 3.56, and

2.35 percent for the low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost assumptions,

respectively. 

4. Assumed Real Wage Growth

For the period from 1969 to 2019, covering the last six complete economic

cycles, the annual real (i.e., inflation-adjusted) growth rate in the average

covered wage averaged 0.77 percent, the result of averages of 0.98, 0.03,

0.45, 1.43, 0.80, and 0.76 percent over the economic cycles 1969-73, 1973-

79, 1979-90, 1990-2001, 2001-07, and 2007-19, respectively.1

For the period 2032 to 2097, the projected average annual real wage growth

rate in OASDI covered employment is 1.74, 1.14, and 0.54 percent for the

low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost assumptions, respectively. The average

annual real wage growth rates are slightly higher than those in the 2022

report.2

The real wage increased 1.52 percent for 2020, a year which included the

pandemic-induced recession and the beginning of the recovery. It then

 1 In previous Trustees Reports, the real increase in the average covered wage was expressed in the form of a

real wage differential—the annual percentage change in the average wage in OASDI covered employment

minus the annual percentage change in the CPI.
109

Economic Assumptions and Methods

increased 3.89 percent for 2021, during the continuing rapid recovery from

the recession, and is estimated to decrease 3.43 percent for 2022 under the

intermediate assumptions, primarily due to the high inflation rate. For the

intermediate assumptions, the annual real wage growth rate is projected to be

0.15 percent in 2023, increase to 1.20 percent in 2024, average 1.64 percent

for 2025 through 2027, average 1.57 percent for 2028 through 2031, and

average 1.14 percent from 2032 to 2097. For the low-cost assumptions, the

annual real wage growth rate is 0.79 percent for 2023, averages 2.77 percent

for 2024 through 2026, and gradually declines to its long-term average of

1.74 percent from 2032 to 2097. For the high-cost assumptions, the real

wage growth rate is -2.58 percent for 2023 and 0.70 percent for 2024. It then

averages 1.67 percent for 2025 through 2027, and gradually reaches its longterm average of 0.54 percent from 2032 to 2097.

 2 In the 2022 report, the projected average real wage differential was 1.77, 1.15, and 0.53 percentage points

for the low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost assumptions, respectively. The corresponding average real

growth rate was 1.72, 1.12, and 0.52 percent for the low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost assumptions,

respectively.
Assumptions and Methods

110

Table V.B1.—Principal Economic Assumptions

Calendar year

Annual percentage changea in—

Productivity

(Total U.S.

economy)

GDP

price

index

Average

hours

worked

per week

Earnings as

a percent of

total labor

compensation

Average annual wage

in covered employment Consumer

price

Nominal Real index

Historical data:

5-year periods:

1960 to 1965 . . . 3.23 1.36 0.19 -0.18 3.22 1.95 1.24

1965 to 1970 . . . 2.04 4.02 -.66 -.30 5.84 1.55 4.23

1970 to 1975 . . . 2.07 6.61 -.87 -.49 6.58 -.17 6.76

1975 to 1980 . . . .94 7.21 -.16 -.33 8.88 -.02 8.91

1980 to 1985 . . . 1.71 5.24 .03 -.36 6.52 1.24 5.22

1985 to 1990 . . . 1.33 3.14 -.06 -.20 4.79 .93 3.83

1990 to 1995 . . . 1.30 2.45 .34 -.11 3.54 .49 3.03

1995 to 2000 . . . 2.31 1.67 .15 .28 5.31 2.81 2.43

2000 to 2005 . . . 2.63 2.32 -.79 -.38 2.69 .19 2.49

2005 to 2010 . . . 1.88 1.91 -.51 -.03 2.51 .21 2.30

2010 to 2015 . . . .35 1.71 .45 .16 2.93 1.30 1.61

2015 to 2020 . . . 1.58 1.69 -.16 .10 2.95 1.23 1.70

Economic cycles:b

1969 to 1973 . . . 2.64 5.04 -.87 -.34 5.94 .98 4.91

1973 to 1979 . . . 1.06 7.54 -.53 -.43 8.58 .03 8.54

1979 to 1990 . . . 1.39 4.61 -.09 -.29 5.78 .46 5.30

1990 to 2001 . . . 1.84 2.08 .11 .05 4.19 1.42 2.73

2001 to 2007 . . . 2.15 2.52 -.47 -.18 3.45 .80 2.63

2007 to 2019 . . . 1.09 1.62 -.05 .04 2.50 .76 1.73

2019 to 2022c . . 1.52 4.26 -.03 .33 5.60 .61 4.95

Single years:

2012 . . . . . . . . . . .34 1.88 .13 .47 3.33 1.20 2.10

2013 . . . . . . . . . . .52 1.77 .33 -.33 1.23 -.14 1.37

2014 . . . . . . . . . . .31 1.86 .36 .27 3.60 2.07 1.50

2015 . . . . . . . . . . .61 .96 .41 .05 3.38 3.81 -.41

2016 . . . . . . . . . . .45 1.00 -.50 .10 1.29 .31 .98

2017 . . . . . . . . . . 1.04 1.93 -.05 .14 3.47 1.32 2.13

2018 . . . . . . . . . . 1.03 2.41 .32 -.10 3.65 1.08 2.55

2019 . . . . . . . . . . 1.32 1.78 -.15 .19 3.62 1.92 1.66

2020 . . . . . . . . . . 4.11 1.35 -.43 .17 2.76 1.52 1.21

2021 . . . . . . . . . . 1.49 4.49 1.11 .48 9.36 3.89 5.26

2022c . . . . . . . . . -.99 7.03 -.77 .34 4.79 -3.43 8.51

Intermediate: 

2023 . . . . . . . . . . .18 3.89 .30 -.16 4.15 .15 4.00

2024 . . . . . . . . . . 1.11 2.17 -.04 -.13 3.76 1.20 2.53

2025 . . . . . . . . . . 1.40 2.05 -.04 -.04 4.06 1.62 2.40

2026 . . . . . . . . . . 1.44 2.05 -.03 d 4.10 1.66 2.40

2027 . . . . . . . . . . 1.47 2.05 -.04 d 4.08 1.64 2.40

2028 . . . . . . . . . . 1.56 2.05 -.05 -.03 4.01 1.57 2.40

2029 . . . . . . . . . . 1.63 2.05 -.05 -.05 4.03 1.60 2.40

2030 . . . . . . . . . . 1.63 2.05 -.05 -.07 4.01 1.57 2.40

2031 . . . . . . . . . . 1.63 2.05 -.05 -.07 3.98 1.54 2.40

2032 . . . . . . . . . . 1.63 2.05 -.05 -.07 3.76 1.33 2.40

2032 to 2097 . . . 1.63 2.05 -.05 -.08 3.56 1.14 2.40
111

Economic Assumptions and Methods

5. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment Projections

Employment is a fundamental component of economic output (GDP), taxable payroll, and the determination of OASDI benefit eligibility and benefit

levels. U.S. employment is projected in two components: the size of the

labor force (those employed or seeking employment) and the unemployment

rate (the proportion of those in the labor force who are not employed).

Table V.B2 provides the historical and projected rates of change in employment, which follow from the rates of change in the labor force, adjusted for

the varying unemployment rates from year to year.

The model used by the Office of the Chief Actuary projects the civilian labor

force by age, sex, marital status, and presence of children. Projections of the

labor force participation rates reflect changes in disability prevalence, educational attainment, marriage patterns, the average level of Social Security

retirement benefits, the state of the economy, and life expectancy.

Low-cost: 

2023 . . . . . . . . . . 0.87 3.86 0.36 -0.14 4.73 0.79 3.90

2024 . . . . . . . . . . 1.95 2.79 .07 -.11 5.82 2.71 3.02

2025 . . . . . . . . . . 2.16 2.75 .09 -.01 6.17 3.08 3.00

2026 . . . . . . . . . . 1.96 2.75 .06 .03 5.61 2.53 3.00

2027 . . . . . . . . . . 1.94 2.75 .05 .04 5.34 2.27 3.00

2028 . . . . . . . . . . 1.93 2.75 .05 .02 5.29 2.22 3.00

2029 . . . . . . . . . . 1.93 2.75 .05 .01 5.26 2.20 3.00

2030 . . . . . . . . . . 1.93 2.75 .05 d 5.25 2.19 3.00

2031 . . . . . . . . . . 1.93 2.75 .05 .01 5.24 2.18 3.00

2032 . . . . . . . . . . 1.93 2.75 .05 .01 5.04 1.98 3.00

2032 to 2097 . . . 1.93 2.75 .05 d 4.79 1.74 3.00

High-cost: 

2023 . . . . . . . . . . -1.71 4.16 .20 -.16 1.86 -2.58 4.56

2024 . . . . . . . . . . 1.53 2.28 -.12 -.13 3.63 .70 2.92

2025 . . . . . . . . . . 1.50 1.41 -.12 -.06 3.71 1.81 1.86

2026 . . . . . . . . . . 1.41 1.35 -.14 -.04 3.44 1.61 1.80

2027 . . . . . . . . . . 1.51 1.35 -.15 -.05 3.43 1.60 1.80

2028 . . . . . . . . . . 1.28 1.35 -.15 -.09 2.92 1.10 1.80

2029 . . . . . . . . . . 1.26 1.35 -.15 -.11 2.74 .92 1.80

2030 . . . . . . . . . . 1.30 1.35 -.15 -.14 2.72 .91 1.80

2031 . . . . . . . . . . 1.33 1.35 -.15 -.14 2.72 .90 1.80

2032 . . . . . . . . . . 1.33 1.35 -.15 -.16 2.50 .69 1.80

2032 to 2097 . . . 1.33 1.35 -.15 -.17 2.35 .54 1.80

a For rows with a single year listed, the value is the annual percentage change from the prior year. For rows with

a range of years listed, the value is the compound average annual percentage change.

b Economic cycles are shown from peak to peak, except for the last cycle, which is not yet complete.

c Estimated values for 2022 vary slightly by alternative and are shown for the intermediate assumptions.

d Greater than -0.005 and less than 0.005 percent.

Table V.B1.—Principal Economic Assumptions (Cont.)

Calendar year

Annual percentage changea in—

Productivity

(Total U.S.

economy)

GDP

price

index

Average

hours

worked

per week

Earnings as

a percent of

total labor

compensation

Average annual wage

in covered employment Consumer

price

Nominal Real index
Assumptions and Methods

112

The annual rate of growth in the size of the labor force decreased from an

average of about 2.6 percent during the 1969-73 economic cycle and

2.7 percent during the 1973-79 cycle to 1.7 percent during the 1979-90 cycle,

1.2 percent during the 1990-2001 cycle, 1.1 percent during the

2001-07 cycle, and 0.5 percent during the 2007-19 cycle. From 2019 to

2022, during the current (incomplete) economic cycle, labor force growth

averaged 0.2 percent per year, which combines the fall in the labor force

during the pandemic-induced recession of 2020 and the growth in the labor

force in 2021-22. Going forward, labor force growth is projected to be

0.8 percent in 2023, rising to 1.2 percent in 2024, and then converging to the

long-term trend of about 0.4 percent per year by 2032. The long-term growth

rate in the labor force is expected to remain subdued due to a slowing of

growth in the working-age population—a consequence of the baby-boom

generation reaching retirement ages and succeeding lower-birth-rate cohorts

reaching working ages. Under the intermediate assumptions, the labor force

is projected to increase by an average of 0.7 percent per year from 2022 to

2032 and 0.4 percent per year from 2032 to 2097.

Labor force participation rates are projected with a model that uses demographic and economic assumptions specific to each alternative. More optimistic economic assumptions in the low-cost alternative are consistent with

higher labor force participation rates, while demographic assumptions in the

low-cost alternative (such as slower improvement in longevity) are consistent with lower labor force participation rates. These economic and demographic influences have largely offsetting effects. Therefore, the projected

labor force participation rates do not vary substantially across alternatives.

Historically, labor force participation rates reflect trends in demographics

and pensions. Between the mid-1960s and the mid-1980s, labor force participation rates at ages 55 and over declined for men but were fairly stable for

women. During this period, the baby-boom generation reached working age

and more women entered the labor force. This increasing supply of labor

allowed employers to offer attractive early retirement options. Between the

mid-1980s and the mid-1990s, participation rates at ages 55 and over roughly

stabilized for men and increased for women. Since the mid-1990s, however,

participation rates for both sexes at ages 55 and over have generally risen.

Many economic and demographic factors, including longevity, disability

prevalence, the business cycle, incentives for retirement in Social Security

and private pensions, education, and marriage patterns, will influence future

labor force participation rates. The Office of the Chief Actuary models some

of these factors explicitly. To model the effects of other factors related to

increases in life expectancy, projected participation rates are adjusted upward

for mid-career and older ages to reflect projected increases in life expec-
113

Economic Assumptions and Methods

tancy. For the intermediate projections, this adjustment increases the total

labor force by 3.0 percent for 2097.

For men and boys age 16 and over, the projected age-adjusted labor force

participation rate1 for 2097 is 72.8, 72.6, and 72.1 percent for the low-cost,

intermediate, and high-cost assumptions, respectively. For women and girls

age 16 and over, the projected age-adjusted labor force participation rate for

2097 is 62.3, 61.9, and 61.7 percent for the low-cost, intermediate, and highcost assumptions, respectively. These age-adjusted labor force participation

rates for 2097 are higher under all three alternatives than the age-adjusted

rates for 2021 of 70.3 percent for men and boys and 58.8 percent for women

and girls (based on actual age-specific rates published by the Bureau of

Labor Statistics), primarily due to the Trustees’ projected increases in life

expectancy, as well as the rise in educational attainment for women. 

The total civilian unemployment rates are presented in table V.B2. For years

through 2032, the table presents total civilian rates without adjustment for

the changing age-sex distribution of the population. For years after 2032, the

table presents age-sex-adjusted rates, using the age-sex distribution of the

2011 civilian labor force. Age-sex-adjusted rates allow for more meaningful

comparisons across longer time periods.

The total civilian unemployment rate reflects the projected levels of unemployment for various age-sex groups of the population. Each group’s unemployment rate gradually approaches an assumed stable value within the first

ten years of the projection period for all alternatives, and thus the total agesex-adjusted civilian unemployment rate reaches its ultimate assumed value

within the first ten years of the projection period.

The assumed ultimate age-sex-adjusted unemployment rate is 3.5, 4.5, and

5.5 percent for the low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost assumptions,

respectively. These values are unchanged from the 2022 report. The Trustees

assume that, as economic growth slows temporarily due to anti-inflationary

measures, the unemployment rate will increase from 3.7 percent for 2022 to

4.7 percent in 2024, and then gradually decline to reach the assumed

4.5 percent for 2027 under the intermediate assumptions. Under the low-cost

assumptions, the unemployment rate is projected to rise to 3.8 percent in

2023 and 2024 before declining to the ultimate unemployment rate of

3.5 percent in 2026. Under the high-cost assumptions, due to the assumed

economic recession, the unemployment rate increases further to 6.3 percent

 1 The Office of the Chief Actuary adjusts the labor force participation rates to the 2011 age distribution of

the civilian noninstitutional U.S. population.
Assumptions and Methods

114

in 2024, with the age-sex-adjusted rate then gradually decreasing to the ultimate unemployment rate of 5.5 percent in 2027.1

6. Gross Domestic Product Projections

The value of real GDP is equal to the product of three components:

(1) productivity (i.e., output per hour worked), (2) average weekly total

employment,2 and (3) average hours worked per week, times 52. Consequently, the growth rate in real GDP is equal to the combined growth rates

for productivity, total employment, and average hours worked. For the period

from 1969 to 2019, which covers the last six complete economic cycles, the

average annual growth in real GDP was 2.7 percent, combining average

growth rates of 1.6 percent for productivity, 1.3 percent for total employment, and -0.2 percent for average hours worked

( ). The real GDP growth rate was -2.8 percent

for 2020, 5.9 percent for 2021, and is estimated to be 1.9 percent for 2022

under the intermediate assumptions.

For the intermediate assumptions, the average annual growth in real GDP is

1.9 percent from 2022 to 2032, combining the average growth rates of

1.37 percent for productivity, 0.58 percent for total employment, and

-0.01 percent for average hours worked. The projected average annual

growth in real GDP of 1.9 percent from 2022 to 2032 is approximately equal

to the underlying sustainable trend rate, but it is slightly slower for 2023

through 2024 and slightly faster for 2025 through 2027. After 2032, the

annual growth in real GDP follows the sustainable trend rate and averages

2.0 percent, which combines the projected ultimate annual growth rate of

1.63 percent for productivity, average annual growth rate of 0.40 percent for

total employment, and the ultimate annual growth rate of -0.05 percent for

average hours worked per week. The projected growth rate of real GDP is

lower than the past average growth rate mainly because the working-age

population is expected to grow more slowly than in the past.

For the low-cost assumptions, the annual growth in real GDP averages

2.9 percent from 2022 to 2032 and 2.7 percent from 2032 to 2097. For the

high-cost assumptions, the annual growth in real GDP averages 1.2 percent

from 2022 to 2032 and 1.2 percent from 2032 to 2097.

 1 The assumed ultimate unemployment rates are age-sex-adjusted rates. For the intermediate assumptions,

the age-sex-adjusted unemployment rate in 2027 through 2032 is 4.5, while the unadjusted rate is 4.4 for

2029 through 2032, as shown in table V.B2. For the high-cost assumptions, the age-sex-adjusted unemployment rate in 2027 through 2032 is 5.5 percent, while the unadjusted rate is 5.4 percent for 2028 through

2032.

 2 Average weekly total employment is the sum of average weekly U.S. civilian employment, which can be

expressed as a product of the total civilian labor force and the complement of the unemployment rate, and

U.S. Armed Forces.

1.027 1.016 1.013 0.998 = × ×
115

Economic Assumptions and Methods

7. Interest Rates

Table V.B2 presents average annual nominal and real interest rates for newly

issued trust fund securities. The nominal rate is the average of the nominal

interest rates for special U.S. Government obligations issuable to the trust

funds in each of the 12 months of the year. Interest for these securities is

compounded semiannually, or at redemption if sooner. The real interest rate

is defined as the annual yield rate for investments in these securities divided

by the annual rate of growth in the CPI for the first year after issuance. The

real rate shown for each year reflects the actual realized (historical) or

expected (future) real yield on securities issuable in the prior year.

To develop a reasonable range of assumed ultimate future real interest rates

for the three alternatives, the Office of the Chief Actuary examined historical

experience for the last six complete economic cycles. For the period from

1969 to 2019, the real interest rate averaged 2.4 percent per year. The real

interest rate averaged 1.6, -1.0, 5.1, 4.1, 2.0, and 0.8 percent per year over the

economic cycles 1969-73, 1973-79, 1979-90, 1990-2001, 2001-07, and

2007-19, respectively. The assumed ultimate real interest rate is 2.8 percent,

2.3 percent, and 1.8 percent for the low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost

assumptions, respectively. These rates are unchanged from the 2022 report.

The average annual nominal interest rate was approximately 1.4 percent for

securities newly issuable in 2021, implying an effective annual yield of

1.4 percent for securities held one year. The CPI rose from 2021 to 2022 by

approximately 8.5 percent. The annual real interest rate for 2022 was therefore -6.6 percent ( ). From 2022 to 2032,

projected nominal interest rates depend on changes in the economic cycle

and in the CPI. When combined with the ultimate CPI assumptions of 3.0,

2.4, and 1.8 percent, the assumed ultimate real interest rates produce an ultimate nominal interest rate of 5.8 percent for the low-cost assumptions,

4.7 percent for the intermediate assumptions, and 3.6 percent for the highcost assumptions. These nominal rates for newly issued trust fund securities

reach their ultimate levels by 2032.

1.014 1.085 ⁄ = = 0.935 1 0.0656 –
Assumptions and Methods

116

Table V.B2.—Additional Economic Factors

Calendar year 

Average annual

unemployment

ratea

Annual percentage changeb in— Average annual interest rate

Labor

forcec Totalemploymentd RealGDPe Nominalf Realg

Historical data:

5-year periods:

1960 to 1965. . . . . 5.5 1.3 1.6 5.1 4.0 2.5

1965 to 1970. . . . . 3.9 2.2 2.1 3.5 5.9 1.0

1970 to 1975. . . . . 6.1 2.5 1.5 2.7 6.7 h

1975 to 1980. . . . . 6.8 2.7 2.9 3.7 8.5 -.9

1980 to 1985. . . . . 8.3 1.5 1.5 3.3 12.1 6.9

1985 to 1990. . . . . 5.9 1.7 2.0 3.3 8.5 5.1

1990 to 1995. . . . . 6.6 1.0 .9 2.6 7.0 4.3

1995 to 2000. . . . . 4.6 1.5 1.8 4.3 6.2 3.9

2000 to 2005. . . . . 5.4 .9 .7 2.6 4.6 2.4

2005 to 2010. . . . . 6.8 .6 -.4 1.0 3.8 1.8

2010 to 2015. . . . . 7.2 .4 1.3 2.1 2.0 .5

2015 to 2020. . . . . 5.0 .5 -.2 1.3 2.0 .5

Economic cycles:i

1969 to 1973. . . . . 5.3 2.6 1.8 3.6 6.5 1.6

1973 to 1979. . . . . 6.8 2.7 2.4 3.0 7.7 -1.0

1979 to 1990. . . . . 7.1 1.7 1.7 3.0 10.3 5.1

1990 to 2001. . . . . 5.5 1.2 1.2 3.2 6.5 4.1

2001 to 2007. . . . . 5.3 1.1 1.1 2.8 4.5 2.0

2007 to 2019. . . . . 6.4 .5 .6 1.7 2.4 .8

2019 to 2022j . . . . 5.7 .2 .1 1.6 1.8 -3.3

Single years:

2012 . . . . . . . . . . . 8.1 .9 1.8 2.3 1.5 .3

2013 . . . . . . . . . . . 7.4 .3 1.0 1.8 1.9 .1

2014 . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 .3 1.6 2.3 2.3 .4

2015 . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 .8 1.7 2.7 2.0 2.7

2016 . . . . . . . . . . . 4.9 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.0

2017 . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 .7 1.2 2.2 2.3 -.3

2018 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 1.1 1.6 2.9 2.9 -.2

2019 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.7 .9 1.1 2.3 2.2 1.2

2020 . . . . . . . . . . . 8.1 -1.7 -6.2 -2.8 1.0 1.0

2021 . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 .3 3.2 5.9 1.4 -4.1

2022j

. . . . . . . . . . . 3.7 1.9 3.7 1.9 3.0 -6.6
117

Economic Assumptions and Methods

Intermediate:

2023 . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 0.8 0.2 0.7 3.5 -1.0

2024 . . . . . . . . . . . 4.7 1.2 .7 1.8 3.5 1.0

2025 . . . . . . . . . . . 4.6 1.0 1.0 2.4 3.6 1.1

2026 . . . . . . . . . . . 4.6 .8 .9 2.3 3.7 1.2

2027 . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 .7 .8 2.2 3.9 1.3

2028 . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 .5 .5 2.0 4.2 1.5

2029 . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 .4 .4 2.0 4.4 1.8

2030 . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 .4 .4 2.0 4.6 2.0

2031 . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 .4 .4 2.0 4.6 2.2

2032 . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 .4 .4 2.0 4.7 2.2

2035 . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 .4 .4 2.0 4.7 2.3

2040 . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 .3 .3 1.9 4.7 2.3

2045 . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 .3 .3 1.9 4.7 2.3

2050 . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 .4 .4 2.0 4.7 2.3

2055 . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 .4 .4 2.0 4.7 2.3

2060 . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 .4 .4 2.0 4.7 2.3

2065 . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 .4 .4 2.0 4.7 2.3

2070 . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 .3 .3 1.9 4.7 2.3

2075 . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 .4 .4 1.9 4.7 2.3

2080 . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 .4 .4 2.0 4.7 2.3

2085 . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 .5 .5 2.1 4.7 2.3

2090 . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 .5 .5 2.1 4.7 2.3

2095 . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 .5 .5 2.1 4.7 2.3

2100 . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 .4 .4 2.0 4.7 2.3

Low-cost:

2023 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 1.1 1.0 2.2 4.2 -.9

2024 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 1.5 1.5 3.5 4.4 1.2

2025 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 1.4 1.6 3.9 4.8 1.4

2026 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 .9 1.0 3.0 5.1 1.8

2027 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 .8 .8 2.8 5.5 2.1

2028 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 .7 .7 2.7 5.5 2.5

2029 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 .6 .6 2.6 5.5 2.5

2030 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 .6 .6 2.6 5.5 2.5

2031 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 .6 .6 2.6 5.7 2.5

2032 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 .6 .6 2.5 5.8 2.7

2035 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 .6 .6 2.6 5.8 2.8

2040 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 .5 .5 2.5 5.8 2.8

2045 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 .6 .6 2.6 5.8 2.8

2050 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 .7 .7 2.7 5.8 2.8

2055 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 .7 .7 2.7 5.8 2.8

2060 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 .7 .7 2.7 5.8 2.8

2065 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 .6 .6 2.6 5.8 2.8

2070 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 .6 .6 2.6 5.8 2.8

2075 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 .7 .7 2.7 5.8 2.8

2080 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 .7 .7 2.7 5.8 2.8

2085 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 .8 .8 2.8 5.8 2.8

2090 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 .8 .8 2.8 5.8 2.8

2095 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 .7 .7 2.7 5.8 2.8

2100 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 .7 .7 2.7 5.8 2.8

Table V.B2.—Additional Economic Factors (Cont.)

Calendar year 

Average annual

unemployment

ratea

Annual percentage changeb in— Average annual interest rate

Labor

forcec Totalemploymentd RealGDPe Nominalf Realg
Assumptions and Methods

118

High-cost:

2023 . . . . . . . . . . . 4.9 0.6 -0.7 -2.2 3.4 -1.5

2024 . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3 .8 -.6 .8 2.9 .5

2025 . . . . . . . . . . . 6.0 .8 1.1 2.5 2.8 1.0

2026 . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7 .7 1.0 2.3 3.0 1.0

2027 . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 .5 .7 2.1 3.2 1.2

2028 . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 .3 .4 1.5 3.2 1.4

2029 . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 .3 .3 1.4 3.3 1.4

2030 . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 .2 .2 1.4 3.4 1.5

2031 . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 .2 .2 1.4 3.5 1.6

2032 . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 .2 .2 1.4 3.6 1.7

2035 . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 .2 .2 1.4 3.6 1.8

2040 . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 .2 .2 1.3 3.6 1.8

2045 . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 h h 1.2 3.6 1.8

2050 . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 h h 1.2 3.6 1.8

2055 . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 h h 1.2 3.6 1.8

2060 . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 h h 1.2 3.6 1.8

2065 . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 h h 1.1 3.6 1.8

2070 . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 -.1 -.1 1.1 3.6 1.8

2075 . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 -.1 -.1 1.1 3.6 1.8

2080 . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 -.1 -.1 1.1 3.6 1.8

2085 . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 -.1 -.1 1.1 3.6 1.8

2090 . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 h h 1.1 3.6 1.8

2095 . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 h h 1.2 3.6 1.8

2100 . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 h h 1.1 3.6 1.8

a The Office of the Chief Actuary adjusts the civilian unemployment rates for 2033 and later to the age-sex

distribution of the civilian labor force in 2011. For years through 2032, the values are the total rates without

adjustment for the changing age-sex distribution.

b For rows with a single year listed, the value is the annual percentage change from the prior year. For rows

with a range of years listed, the value is the compounded average annual percentage change.

c The U.S. civilian labor force.

d Total U.S. military and civilian employment.

e The value of the total output of goods and services in 2012 dollars.

f The average of the nominal interest rates, compounded semiannually, for special public-debt obligations

issuable to the trust funds in each of the 12 months of the year.

g The realized or expected annual real yield for each year on securities issuable in the prior year.

h Greater than -0.05 and less than 0.05 percent.

i Economic cycles are shown from peak to peak, except for the last cycle, which is not yet complete.

j Estimated values for 2022 vary slightly by alternative and are shown for the intermediate assumptions.

Table V.B2.—Additional Economic Factors (Cont.)

Calendar year 

Average annual

unemployment

ratea

Annual percentage changeb in— Average annual interest rate

Labor

forcec Totalemploymentd RealGDPe Nominalf Realg
119

Program Assumptions and Methods

C. PROGRAM-SPECIFIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS

The Office of the Chief Actuary at the Social Security Administration uses a

set of models to project future income and cost under the OASDI program.

These models rely not only on the demographic and economic assumptions

described in the previous sections, but also on a number of program-specific

assumptions and methods. Values of many program parameters change from

year to year as prescribed by formulas set out in the Social Security Act.

These program parameters affect the level of payroll taxes collected and the

level of benefits paid. The office uses complex models to project the numbers of future workers covered under OASDI and the levels of their covered

earnings, as well as the numbers of future beneficiaries and the expected levels of their benefits. The following subsections provide descriptions of these

program-specific assumptions and methods.

1. Automatically Adjusted Program Parameters

The Social Security Act requires that certain parameters affecting the determination of OASDI benefits and taxes be adjusted annually to reflect

changes in particular economic measures. Formulas prescribed in the law,

applied to reported statistics, change these program parameters annually. The

law bases these automatic adjustments on measured changes in the national

average wage index (AWI) and the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage

Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI).1 This section shows values for program

parameters adjusted using these indices from the time that these adjustments

became effective through 2032. Projected values for future years depend on

the economic assumptions described in the preceding section of this report.

Tables V.C1 and V.C2 present the historical and projected values of the CPIbased benefit increases, the AWI series, and the values of many of the wageindexed program parameters. Each table shows projections under the three

alternative sets of assumptions. Table V.C1 includes:

 • The annual cost-of-living benefit increase percentages. The automatic

cost-of-living adjustment provisions in the Social Security Act specify

increases in OASDI monthly benefits based on increases in the CPI.

Volatility in oil prices has resulted in substantial volatility in cost-of-living adjustments over the last two decades. A large cost-of-living adjustment for December 2008 was followed by no cost-of-living adjustments

for December 2009 and December 2010. More recent volatility in oil

 1 The Federal Register publishes details of these indexation procedures annually. Also see

www.ssa.gov/OACT/COLA/.
Assumptions and Methods

120

prices again affected the CPI, resulting in no cost-of-living adjustment

for December 2015. Cost-of-living adjustments resumed in December

2016. All three sets of assumptions include annual cost-of-living adjustments for all future years.

 • The annual levels of and percentage increases in the AWI. Under section 215(b)(3) of the Social Security Act, Social Security benefit computations index taxable earnings (for most workers first becoming

eligible for benefits in 1979 or later) using the AWI for each year after

1950. This procedure converts a worker’s past earnings to approximately average-wage-indexed equivalent values near the time of his or

her benefit eligibility. Other program parameters presented in this section that are subject to the automatic-adjustment provisions also rely on

the AWI.

 • The wage-indexed contribution and benefit base. For any year, the contribution and benefit base is the maximum amount of earnings subject to

the OASDI payroll tax and creditable toward benefit computation. The

Social Security Act defers any increase in the contribution and benefit

base if there is no cost-of-living adjustment effective for December of

the preceding year. There was no increase in the contribution and benefit base for 2010, 2011, or 2016 because there was no cost-of-living

adjustment for the immediate prior December in each case. Under all

three sets of assumptions, the contribution and benefit base is projected

to increase for all future years.

 • The wage-indexed retirement earnings test exempt amounts. The

exempt amounts are the annual amount of earnings below which beneficiaries do not have benefits withheld. A lower exempt amount applies

for years prior to the year of attaining normal retirement age. A higher

exempt amount applies beginning with the year in which a beneficiary

attains normal retirement age. Starting in 2000, the retirement earnings

test no longer applies beginning with the month of attaining normal

retirement age. The Social Security Act defers any increase in these

exempt amounts if there is no cost-of-living adjustment effective for

December of the preceding year. There was no increase in these exempt

amounts for 2010, 2011, or 2016 because there was no cost-of-living

adjustment for the immediate prior December. Under all three sets of

assumptions, the exempt amounts increase for all future years.
121

Program Assumptions and Methods

Table V.C1.—Cost-of-Living Benefit Increases, Average Wage Index, Contribution and 

Benefit Bases, and Retirement Earnings Test Exempt Amounts, 1975-2032

Calendar year

Cost-of-living

benefit

increasea

(percent)

Average

wage index (AWI) b Contribution

and benefit

base c

Retirement earnings

test exempt amount

Amount

Increase

(percent)

Under

NRAd At NRAe

Historical data:

1975 . . . . . . . . . . . 8.0 $8,630.92 7.5 $14,100 $2,520 $2,520

1976 . . . . . . . . . . . 6.4 9,226.48 6.9 15,300 2,760 2,760

1977 . . . . . . . . . . . 5.9 9,779.44 6.0 16,500 3,000 3,000

1978 . . . . . . . . . . . 6.5 10,556.03 7.9 17,700 3,240 4,000

1979 . . . . . . . . . . . 9.9 11,479.46 8.7 22,900 3,480 4,500

1980 . . . . . . . . . . . 14.3 12,513.46 9.0 25,900 3,720 5,000

1981 . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 13,773.10 10.1 29,700 4,080 5,500

1982 . . . . . . . . . . . 7.4 14,531.34 5.5 32,400 4,440 6,000

1983 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 15,239.24 4.9 35,700 4,920 6,600

1984 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 16,135.07 5.9 37,800 5,160 6,960

1985 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 16,822.51 4.3 39,600 5,400 7,320

1986 . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 17,321.82 3.0 42,000 5,760 7,800

1987 . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 18,426.51 6.4 43,800 6,000 8,160

1988 . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0 19,334.04 4.9 45,000 6,120 8,400

1989 . . . . . . . . . . . 4.7 20,099.55 4.0 48,000 6,480 8,880

1990 . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 21,027.98 4.6 51,300 6,840 9,360

1991 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.7 21,811.60 3.7 53,400 7,080 9,720

1992 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 22,935.42 5.2 55,500 7,440 10,200

1993 . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 23,132.67 .9 57,600 7,680 10,560

1994 . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 23,753.53 2.7 60,600 8,040 11,160

1995 . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 24,705.66 4.0 61,200 8,160 11,280

1996 . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 25,913.90 4.9 62,700 8,280 12,500

1997 . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 27,426.00 5.8 65,400 8,640 13,500

1998 . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 28,861.44 5.2 68,400 9,120 14,500

1999 . . . . . . . . . . . f2.5 30,469.84 5.6 72,600 9,600 15,500

2000 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 32,154.82 5.5 76,200 10,080 17,000

2001 . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 32,921.92 2.4 80,400 10,680 25,000

2002 . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 33,252.09 1.0 84,900 11,280 30,000

2003 . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 34,064.95 2.4 87,000 11,520 30,720

2004 . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 35,648.55 4.6 87,900 11,640 31,080

2005 . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 36,952.94 3.7 90,000 12,000 31,800

2006 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 38,651.41 4.6 94,200 12,480 33,240

2007 . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 40,405.48 4.5 97,500 12,960 34,440

2008 . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8 41,334.97 2.3 102,000 13,560 36,120

2009 . . . . . . . . . . . .0 40,711.61 -1.5 106,800 14,160 37,680

2010 . . . . . . . . . . . .0 41,673.83 2.4 106,800 14,160 37,680

2011 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 42,979.61 3.1 106,800 14,160 37,680

2012 . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 44,321.67 3.1 110,100 14,640 38,880

2013 . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 44,888.16 1.3 113,700 15,120 40,080

2014 . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 46,481.52 3.5 117,000 15,480 41,400

2015 . . . . . . . . . . . .0 48,098.63 3.5 118,500 15,720 41,880

2016 . . . . . . . . . . . .3 48,642.15 1.1 118,500 15,720 41,880

2017 . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 50,321.89 3.5 127,200 16,920 44,880

2018 . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 52,145.80 3.6 128,400 17,040 45,360

2019 . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 54,099.99 3.7 132,900 17,640 46,920

2020 . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 55,628.60 2.8 137,700 18,240 48,600

2021 . . . . . . . . . . . 5.9 60,575.07 8.9 142,800 18,960 50,520
Assumptions and Methods

122

Intermediate:

2022 . . . . . . . . . . . g8.7 $63,467.98 4.8 g$147,000 g$19,560 g$51,960

2023 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 66,147.17 4.2 g160,200 g21,240 g56,520

2024 . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 68,627.58 3.7 167,700 22,200 59,160

2025 . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 71,411.99 4.1 174,900 23,160 61,680

2026 . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 74,348.48 4.1 181,200 24,000 64,080

2027 . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 77,393.67 4.1 188,700 25,080 66,600

2028 . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 80,510.73 4.0 196,500 26,040 69,360

2029 . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 83,757.03 4.0 204,600 27,120 72,240

2030 . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 87,106.49 4.0 212,700 28,200 75,120

2031 . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 90,574.48 4.0 221,400 29,400 78,120

2032 . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 93,995.33 3.8 230,100 30,480 81,240

Low-cost:

2022 . . . . . . . . . . . g8.7 63,432.25 4.7 g147,000 g19,560 g51,960

2023 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 66,442.68 4.7 g160,200 g21,240 g56,520

2024 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 70,258.88 5.7 167,700 22,200 59,160

2025 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 74,575.71 6.1 175,500 23,280 62,040

2026 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 78,782.82 5.6 185,700 24,600 65,520

2027 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 83,005.63 5.4 197,100 26,160 69,600

2028 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 87,405.28 5.3 208,200 27,600 73,560

2029 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 92,010.68 5.3 219,300 29,040 77,400

2030 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 96,841.91 5.3 231,000 30,600 81,600

2031 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 101,915.61 5.2 243,000 32,280 85,800

2032 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 107,046.81 5.0 255,900 33,960 90,360

High-cost:

2022 . . . . . . . . . . . g8.7 63,460.05 4.8 g147,000 g19,560 g51,960

2023 . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0 64,726.55 2.0 g160,200 g21,240 g56,520

2024 . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 67,055.34 3.6 167,700 22,200 59,160

2025 . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 69,534.32 3.7 171,000 22,680 60,360

2026 . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 71,952.76 3.5 177,300 23,520 62,520

2027 . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 74,431.84 3.4 183,600 24,360 64,920

2028 . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 76,626.52 2.9 190,200 25,200 67,080

2029 . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 78,738.96 2.8 196,800 26,040 69,480

2030 . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 80,892.11 2.7 202,500 26,880 71,520

2031 . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 83,098.17 2.7 207,900 27,600 73,440

2032 . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 85,191.64 2.5 213,600 28,320 75,480

a Effective with benefits payable for June in each year 1975-82, and for December in each year after 1982.

b See table VI.G6 for projected dollar amounts of the AWI for years beyond the last year of this table.

c Public Law 95-216 specified amounts for 1978-81. Public Law 101-239 changed the indexing procedure

and caused slightly higher bases after 1989.

d Normal retirement age. See table V.C3 for specific values.

e In 1955-82, the retirement earnings test did not apply at ages 72 and over. In 1983-99, the test did not apply

at ages 70 and over. Beginning in 2000, the test does not apply beginning with the month of normal retirement

age attainment. In the year of normal retirement age attainment, the higher exempt amount applies to earnings

prior to the month of normal retirement age attainment. Public Law 95-216 specified amounts for 1978-82.

Public Law 104-121 specified amounts for 1996-2002.

f Originally determined as 2.4 percent. Pursuant to Public Law 106-554, effectively 2.5 percent.

g Actual amount, as determined under automatic-adjustment provisions.

Table V.C1.—Cost-of-Living Benefit Increases, Average Wage Index, Contribution and 

Benefit Bases, and Retirement Earnings Test Exempt Amounts, 1975-2032 (Cont.)

Calendar year

Cost-of-living

benefit

increasea

(percent)

Average

wage index (AWI) b Contribution

and benefit

base c

Retirement earnings

test exempt amount

Amount

Increase

(percent)

Under

NRAd At NRAe
123

Program Assumptions and Methods

Table V.C2 shows values for other wage-indexed parameters. The table provides historical values from 1978, when indexing of the amount of earnings

required for a quarter of coverage first began, through 2023, and also shows

projected values through 2032. These other wage-indexed program parameters are:

 • The bend points in the formula for computing the primary insurance

amount (PIA) for workers who reach age 62, become disabled, or die in

a given year. As figure V.C1 illustrates, these two bend points define

three ranges in a worker’s average indexed monthly earnings (AIME).

The formula for the worker’s PIA multiplies a 90, 32, or 15 percent factor by the portion of the worker’s AIME that falls within the three

respective ranges, and then adds the resulting products together.

 • The bend points in the formula for computing the maximum total

amount of monthly benefits payable based on the earnings record of a

retired or deceased worker (maximum family benefit). As figure V.C2

illustrates, these three bend points define four ranges in a worker’s PIA.

The formula for the maximum family benefit multiplies a 150, 272, 134,

or 175 percent factor by the portion of the worker’s PIA that falls within

the four respective ranges, and then adds the resulting products together.

 Figure V.C1.—Primary-Insurance-Amount Formula for Those Newly Eligible in 2023

90% 

32% 

15% 

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000

Primary Insurance Amount 

Average Indexed Monthly Earnings

First 

bend point

($1,115)

Second 

bend point

($6,721)
Assumptions and Methods

124

 • The amount of earnings required in a year to earn a quarter of coverage

(QC). The number and timing of QCs earned determines an individual’s

insured status—the basic requirement for benefit eligibility under

OASDI.

 • The old-law contribution and benefit base—the contribution and benefit

base that would have been in effect without enactment of the 1977

amendments. This old-law base is used in determining special-minimum benefits for certain workers who have many years of low earnings

in covered employment. Since 1986, the calculation of OASDI benefits

for certain workers who are eligible to receive pensions based on noncovered employment uses the old-law base. In addition, the Railroad

Retirement program and the Employee Retirement Income Security Act

of 1974 use the old-law base for certain purposes.

 Figure V.C2.—OASI Maximum-Family-Benefit Formula 

for Those Newly Eligible in 2023

150% 

272% 

134% 

175% 

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000

Maximum family benefit 

Primary Insurance Amount

Third 

bend point

($2,682)

Second 

bend point

($2,056)

First 

bend point

($1,425)
125

Program Assumptions and Methods

Table V.C2.—Values for Selected Wage-Indexed Program Parameters, 

Calendar Years 1978-2032

Calendar year

AIME bend

points in PIA

formulaa

PIA bend points

in OASI maximumfamily-benefit formulab

Earnings

required for

a quarter of

coverage

Old-law

contribution

and benefit

basec First Second First Second Third

Historical data:

1978 . . . . . . . . . d d d d de $250 e $17,700

1979 . . . . . . . . . e $180 e $1,085 e $230 e $332 e $433 260 18,900

1980 . . . . . . . . . 194 1,171 248 358 467 290 20,400

1981 . . . . . . . . . 211 1,274 270 390 508 310 22,200

1982 . . . . . . . . . 230 1,388 294 425 554 340 24,300

1983 . . . . . . . . . 254 1,528 324 468 610 370 26,700

1984 . . . . . . . . . 267 1,612 342 493 643 390 28,200

1985 . . . . . . . . . 280 1,691 358 517 675 410 29,700

1986 . . . . . . . . . 297 1,790 379 548 714 440 31,500

1987 . . . . . . . . . 310 1,866 396 571 745 460 32,700

1988 . . . . . . . . . 319 1,922 407 588 767 470 33,600

1989 . . . . . . . . . 339 2,044 433 626 816 500 35,700

1990 . . . . . . . . . 356 2,145 455 656 856 520 38,100

1991 . . . . . . . . . 370 2,230 473 682 890 540 39,600

1992 . . . . . . . . . 387 2,333 495 714 931 570 41,400

1993 . . . . . . . . . 401 2,420 513 740 966 590 42,900

1994 . . . . . . . . . 422 2,545 539 779 1,016 620 45,000

1995 . . . . . . . . . 426 2,567 544 785 1,024 630 45,300

1996 . . . . . . . . . 437 2,635 559 806 1,052 640 46,500

1997 . . . . . . . . . 455 2,741 581 839 1,094 670 48,600

1998 . . . . . . . . . 477 2,875 609 880 1,147 700 50,700

1999 . . . . . . . . . 505 3,043 645 931 1,214 740 53,700

2000 . . . . . . . . . 531 3,202 679 980 1,278 780 56,700

2001 . . . . . . . . . 561 3,381 717 1,034 1,349 830 59,700

2002 . . . . . . . . . 592 3,567 756 1,092 1,424 870 63,000

2003 . . . . . . . . . 606 3,653 774 1,118 1,458 890 64,500

2004 . . . . . . . . . 612 3,689 782 1,129 1,472 900 65,100

2005 . . . . . . . . . 627 3,779 801 1,156 1,508 920 66,900

2006 . . . . . . . . . 656 3,955 838 1,210 1,578 970 69,900

2007 . . . . . . . . . 680 4,100 869 1,255 1,636 1,000 72,600

2008 . . . . . . . . . 711 4,288 909 1,312 1,711 1,050 75,900

2009 . . . . . . . . . 744 4,483 950 1,372 1,789 1,090 79,200

2010 . . . . . . . . . 761 4,586 972 1,403 1,830 1,120 79,200

2011 . . . . . . . . . 749 4,517 957 1,382 1,803 1,120 79,200

2012 . . . . . . . . . 767 4,624 980 1,415 1,845 1,130 81,900

2013 . . . . . . . . . 791 4,768 1,011 1,459 1,903 1,160 84,300

2014 . . . . . . . . . 816 4,917 1,042 1,505 1,962 1,200 87,000

2015 . . . . . . . . . 826 4,980 1,056 1,524 1,987 1,220 88,200

2016 . . . . . . . . . 856 5,157 1,093 1,578 2,058 1,260 88,200

2017 . . . . . . . . . 885 5,336 1,131 1,633 2,130 1,300 94,500

2018 . . . . . . . . . 895 5,397 1,144 1,651 2,154 1,320 95,400

2019 . . . . . . . . . 926 5,583 1,184 1,708 2,228 1,360 98,700

2020 . . . . . . . . . 960 5,785 1,226 1,770 2,309 1,410 102,300

2021 . . . . . . . . . 996 6,002 1,272 1,837 2,395 1,470 106,200

2022 . . . . . . . . . 1,024 6,172 1,308 1,889 2,463 1,510 109,200

2023 . . . . . . . . . 1,115 6,721 1,425 2,056 2,682 1,640 118,800

Intermediate:

2024 . . . . . . . . . 1,168 7,042 1,493 2,155 2,810 1,720 124,500

2025 . . . . . . . . . 1,218 7,339 1,556 2,246 2,929 1,790 129,900

2026 . . . . . . . . . 1,263 7,614 1,614 2,330 3,039 1,860 134,700

2027 . . . . . . . . . 1,314 7,923 1,680 2,424 3,162 1,930 140,100

2028 . . . . . . . . . 1,368 8,249 1,749 2,524 3,292 2,010 145,800

2029 . . . . . . . . . 1,425 8,587 1,820 2,627 3,427 2,100 151,800

2030 . . . . . . . . . 1,482 8,932 1,894 2,733 3,565 2,180 158,100

2031 . . . . . . . . . 1,542 9,293 1,970 2,843 3,708 2,270 164,400

2032 . . . . . . . . . 1,603 9,664 2,049 2,957 3,857 2,360 171,000
Assumptions and Methods

126

In addition to the economic factors that affect the determination of OASDI

benefits, there are certain legislated changes that affect current and future

benefit amounts. Two such changes are the scheduled increases in the normal

retirement age and in the delayed retirement credits. Table V.C3 shows the

scheduled changes in these parameters and the resulting effects on benefit

levels expressed as a percentage of PIA.

Low-cost:

2024 . . . . . . . . . $1,168 $7,038 $1,492 $2,153 $2,809 $1,720 $124,500

2025 . . . . . . . . . 1,223 7,372 1,563 2,256 2,942 1,800 130,500

2026 . . . . . . . . . 1,293 7,795 1,652 2,385 3,111 1,900 138,000

2027 . . . . . . . . . 1,373 8,274 1,754 2,532 3,302 2,020 146,400

2028 . . . . . . . . . 1,450 8,741 1,853 2,675 3,488 2,130 154,500

2029 . . . . . . . . . 1,528 9,209 1,952 2,818 3,675 2,250 162,900

2030 . . . . . . . . . 1,609 9,697 2,056 2,967 3,870 2,370 171,600

2031 . . . . . . . . . 1,694 10,208 2,164 3,124 4,074 2,490 180,600

2032 . . . . . . . . . 1,782 10,744 2,278 3,288 4,288 2,620 189,900

High-cost:

2024 . . . . . . . . . 1,168 7,041 1,492 2,154 2,810 1,720 124,500

2025 . . . . . . . . . 1,191 7,181 1,522 2,197 2,866 1,750 126,900

2026 . . . . . . . . . 1,234 7,440 1,577 2,276 2,969 1,820 131,700

2027 . . . . . . . . . 1,280 7,715 1,635 2,361 3,079 1,880 136,500

2028 . . . . . . . . . 1,324 7,983 1,692 2,443 3,186 1,950 141,300

2029 . . . . . . . . . 1,370 8,258 1,751 2,527 3,296 2,020 146,100

2030 . . . . . . . . . 1,410 8,501 1,802 2,601 3,393 2,080 150,300

2031 . . . . . . . . . 1,449 8,736 1,852 2,673 3,486 2,130 154,500

2032 . . . . . . . . . 1,489 8,975 1,902 2,746 3,582 2,190 158,700

a The formula to compute a PIA is: (1) 90% of AIME below the first bend point, plus (2) 32% of AIME in

excess of the first bend point but not in excess of the second, plus (3) 15% of AIME in excess of the second

bend point. The bend points are determined based on the first year a beneficiary becomes eligible for benefits.

b The formula to compute an OASI family maximum is: (1) 150% of PIA below the first bend point, plus

(2) 272% of PIA in excess of the first bend point but not in excess of the second, plus (3) 134% of PIA in

excess of the second bend point but not in excess of the third, plus (4) 175% of PIA in excess of the third

bend point. This formula also determines family maximums for disabled-worker beneficiaries first eligible

after 1978 and entitled before July 1980.

c Contribution and benefit base that would have been in effect without enactment of the Social Security

Amendments of 1977. Public Law 101-239 changed the indexing procedure and caused slightly higher bases

after 1989.

d No provision in law for this amount in this year.

e Amount specified by Social Security Amendments of 1977.

Table V.C2.—Values for Selected Wage-Indexed Program Parameters, 

Calendar Years 1978-2032 (Cont.)

Calendar year

AIME bend

points in PIA

formulaa

PIA bend points

in OASI maximumfamily-benefit formulab

Earnings

required for

a quarter of

coverage

Old-law

contribution

and benefit

basec First Second First Second Third
127

Program Assumptions and Methods

2. Covered Employment

Projections of the total U.S. civilian labor force and unemployment rate (see

table V.B2) are based on Bureau of Labor Statistics definitions from the Current Population Survey (CPS). These projections represent the average

weekly number of employed and unemployed persons, age 16 and over, in

the U.S. in a calendar year. Covered employment for a calendar year is

defined as the total number of persons who have any OASDI covered earnings (that is, earnings subject to the OASDI payroll tax) at any time during

that year. For those age 16 and over, projected covered employment is the

sum of age-sex groups, each reflecting the growth projected for the group’s

total U.S employment and average weeks worked per year.1 For the shortrange period, the age-sex-adjusted average weeks worked declines slightly as

the age-sex-adjusted unemployment rate rises to its ultimate assumed value

of 4.5 percent. After 2032, the average weeks worked for each age-sex group

Table V.C3.—Legislated Changes in Normal Retirement Age and Delayed Retirement

Credits for Persons Attaining Age 62 in Each Year 1986 and Later

Year of birth

Year of

attainment of

age 62

Normal

retirement

age (NRA)

Credit for each 

year of delayed 

retirement after

NRA (percent)

Benefit, as a percentage of PIA, 

beginning at age —

62 65 66 67 70

1924 . . . . . . . . 1986. . . . . . . . 65 . . . . . . . . 3 80 100 103 106 115

1925 . . . . . . . . 1987. . . . . . . . 65 . . . . . . . . 3 1/2 80 100 103 1/2 107 117 1/2

1926 . . . . . . . . 1988. . . . . . . . 65 . . . . . . . . 3 1/2 80 100 103 1/2 107 117 1/2

1927 . . . . . . . . 1989. . . . . . . . 65 . . . . . . . . 4 80 100 104 108 120

1928 . . . . . . . . 1990. . . . . . . . 65 . . . . . . . . 4 80 100 104 108 120

1929 . . . . . . . . 1991. . . . . . . . 65 . . . . . . . . 4 1/2 80 100 104 1/2 109 122 1/2

1930 . . . . . . . . 1992. . . . . . . . 65 . . . . . . . . 4 1/2 80 100 104 1/2 109 122 1/2

1931 . . . . . . . . 1993. . . . . . . . 65 . . . . . . . . 5 80 100 105 110 125

1932 . . . . . . . . 1994. . . . . . . . 65 . . . . . . . . 5 80 100 105 110 125

1933 . . . . . . . . 1995. . . . . . . . 65 . . . . . . . . 5 1/2 80 100 105 1/2 111 127 1/2

1934 . . . . . . . . 1996. . . . . . . . 65 . . . . . . . . 5 1/2 80 100 105 1/2 111 127 1/2

1935 . . . . . . . . 1997. . . . . . . . 65 . . . . . . . . 6 80 100 106 112 130

1936 . . . . . . . . 1998. . . . . . . . 65 . . . . . . . . 6 80 100 106 112 130

1937 . . . . . . . . 1999. . . . . . . . 65 . . . . . . . . 6 1/2 80 100 106 1/2 113 132 1/2

1938 . . . . . . . . 2000. . . . . . . . 65, 2 mo . . . 6 1/2 79 1/6 98 8/9 105 5/12 111 11/12 131 5/12

1939 . . . . . . . . 2001. . . . . . . . 65, 4 mo . . . 7 78 1/3 97 7/9 104 2/3 111 2/3 132 2/3

1940 . . . . . . . . 2002. . . . . . . . 65, 6 mo . . . 7 77 1/2 96 2/3 103 1/2 110 1/2 131 1/2

1941 . . . . . . . . 2003. . . . . . . . 65, 8 mo . . . 7 1/2 76 2/3 95 5/9 102 1/2 110 132 1/2

1942 . . . . . . . . 2004. . . . . . . . 65, 10 mo . . 7 1/2 75 5/6 94 4/9 101 1/4 108 3/4 131 1/4

1943-54 . . . . . 2005-16 . . . . . 66 . . . . . . . . 8 75 93 1/3 100 108 132

1955 . . . . . . . . 2017. . . . . . . . 66, 2 mo . . . 8 74 1/6 92 2/9 98 8/9 106 2/3 130 2/3

1956 . . . . . . . . 2018. . . . . . . . 66, 4 mo . . . 8 73 1/3 91 1/9 97 7/9 105 1/3 129 1/3

1957 . . . . . . . . 2019. . . . . . . . 66, 6 mo . . . 8 72 1/2 90 96 2/3 104 128

1958 . . . . . . . . 2020. . . . . . . . 66, 8 mo . . . 8 71 2/3 88 8/9 95 5/9 102 2/3 126 2/3

1959 . . . . . . . . 2021. . . . . . . . 66, 10 mo . . 8 70 5/6 87 7/9 94 4/9 101 1/3 125 1/3

1960 & later . . 2022 & later . 67 . . . . . . . . 8 70 86 2/3 93 1/3 100 124

 1 For those under age 16, projected covered employment is the sum of age-sex components, each of which is

projected as a ratio to the Social Security area population.
Assumptions and Methods

128

is assumed to remain constant. The projection method also accounts for

changes in non-OASDI-covered employment and the increase in coverage of

Federal civilian employment as a result of the 1983 Social Security Amendments. It also reflects changes in the number and employment status of otherthan-LPR immigrants residing within the Social Security coverage area, such

as undocumented immigrants and foreign workers and students with temporary visas.

The covered-worker rate is the ratio of OASDI covered workers to the Social

Security area population. For men and boys age 16 and over, the projected

age-adjusted covered-worker rates1 for 2097 are 69.7, 69.8, and 69.6 percent

for the low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost assumptions, respectively. For

women and girls age 16 and over, the projected age-adjusted covered-worker

rates for 2097 are 66.8, 66.1, and 65.7 percent for the low-cost, intermediate,

and high-cost assumptions, respectively. An important factor in the variation

among the projected rates for the three alternatives is the portion of the men

and women in the population that is projected to be other-than-LPR immigrants. For men and boys, the intermediate projected rate for 2097 is lower

than the 2021 age-adjusted rate of 71.0 percent primarily due to the projected

increase in the portion of the Social Security area population that consists of

other-than-LPR immigrants. For women and girls, the intermediate projected

rate for 2097 is higher than the 2021 age-adjusted rate of 64.8 percent

because the projected increase in the age-adjusted labor force participation

rate more than offsets the projected increase in the portion of the population

that will be other-than-LPR immigrants.

3. Insured Population

Eligibility for worker benefits under the OASDI program requires some

threshold level of work in covered employment. A worker satisfies this

requirement by his or her accumulation of quarters of coverage (QCs). Prior

to 1978, a worker earned one QC for each calendar quarter in which he or

she earned at least $50. In 1978, when annual earnings reporting replaced

quarterly reporting, the amount required to earn a QC (up to a maximum of

four per year) was set at $250. As specified in the law, the Social Security

Administration has adjusted this amount each year since then according to

changes in the AWI. Its value in 2023 is $1,640.

There are three types of insured status that a worker can earn under the

OASDI program. The number and recency of QCs earned determine each

 1 Age-adjusted covered-worker rates are adjusted to the 2011 age distribution of the Social Security area

population.
129

Program Assumptions and Methods

status. A worker is fully insured when his or her total number of QCs is

greater than or equal to the number of years elapsed after the year of attainment of age 21 (but not less than six). After a worker has accumulated

40 QCs, he or she remains permanently fully insured. A worker is disability

insured if he or she is: (1) a fully insured worker who has accumulated 20

QCs during the 40-quarter period ending with the current quarter, (2) a fully

insured worker aged 24-30 who has accumulated QCs during one-half of the

quarters elapsed after the quarter of attainment of age 21 and up to and

including the current quarter, or (3) a fully insured worker under age 24 who

has accumulated six QCs during the 12-quarter period ending with the current quarter. A worker is currently insured when he or she has accumulated

six QCs during the 13-quarter period ending with the current quarter. Periods

of disability reduce the number of quarters required for insured status, but

not below the minimum of six QCs.

There are many types of benefits payable to workers and their family members under the OASDI program. A worker must be fully insured to be eligible for a primary retirement benefit and for his or her spouse or children to

be eligible for auxiliary retirement benefits. A deceased worker must have

been either currently insured or fully insured at the time of death for his or

her children (and their mother or father) to be eligible for benefits. If there

are no eligible surviving children, the deceased worker must have been fully

insured at the time of death for his or her surviving spouse to be eligible. A

worker must be disability insured to be eligible for a primary disability benefit and for his or her spouse or children to be eligible for auxiliary disability

benefits.

The Office of the Chief Actuary estimates the fully insured population, as a

percentage of the Social Security area population, by single year of age and

sex starting in 1969. The short-range model extrapolates the historical trend

in these rates from data in the Continuous Work History Sample (CWHS).

The model uses information on quarters of coverage earned due to employment covered by Social Security derived from tabulations of the CWHS. The

model also uses historical administrative data on beneficiaries in force and

estimated historical mortality rates. The model combines this information to

estimate the proportion of individuals who were alive and fully insured as of

the end of each historical year. Using projected mortality rates and covered

workers, the model extrapolates these rates into the future and applies them

to the historical and projected population to arrive at the fully insured population by age and sex through the end of the short-range period.

The long-range fully insured model uses 30,000 simulated work histories for

each sex and birth cohort, representing everyone except the other-than-LPR
Assumptions and Methods

130

immigrant population.1 For the other-than-LPR immigrant population, the

model generates substantially lower percentages attaining fully insured status. The model constructs simulated work histories using past coverage rates,

earnings distributions, and amounts required for crediting QCs, and develops

them in a manner that replicates historical individual variations in work patterns. The probability of covered employment in any year is assumed to be

higher for those who have worked more consistently in the recent past.

Model parameters are selected so that simulated fully insured percentages

are consistent with the fully insured percentages estimated by the short-range

model for the recent historical period.

The Office of the Chief Actuary estimates the disability insured population,

as a percentage of the fully insured population, by age and sex starting

in 1969. The office bases historical values on a tabulation of the disability

insured population from the CWHS and estimates of the fully insured population. The short-range model projects these percentages by using the relationship between the historical percentages and covered-worker rates. The

long-range model projects these percentages by using the same simulated

work histories used to project the fully insured percentages. The long-range

model makes additional adjustments to the model simulations in order to

bring the disability insured percentages in the historical and short-range periods into close agreement with those estimated from the CWHS and the shortrange model.

The office does not project the currently insured population because the

number of beneficiaries who are entitled to benefits based solely on currently

insured status has been very small recently and is likely to remain small in

the future.

Using these insured models, the percentage of the Social Security area population aged 62 and over that is fully insured is projected to change from its

estimated level of 88.5 for December 31, 2020, to 86.8, 88.6, and 90.9 for

December 31, 2100, under the low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost alternatives, respectively. Over the projection period, the percentages for both men

and women change significantly. The percentage for men declines, reflecting, in part, increases in the percent of the population that is classified as

other-than-LPR immigrants and is thus less likely to have earnings reported

and credited to them. The percentage for women increases, reflecting the

past substantial growth in the employment of younger cohorts of women.

Under the intermediate assumptions, for example, the percentage for men

 1 Those granted legal work authorization through the 2012 Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program

are included in the simulations.
131

Program Assumptions and Methods

decreases from 94.1 to 87.7, and the percentage for women increases from

83.9 to 89.4.

4. Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Beneficiaries

The Office of the Chief Actuary projects the number of OASI beneficiaries

for each type of benefit separately by the sex of the worker on whose earnings the benefits are based and by the age of the beneficiary. For the longrange period, the office also projects the number of beneficiaries by marital

status for several types of benefits. The office uses two separate models in

making these projections. The short-range model makes projections during

the first 10 years of the projection period and the long-range model makes

projections thereafter.

The short-range model develops the number of retired-worker beneficiaries

by applying award rates to the aged fully insured population, excluding those

already receiving retired-worker, disabled-worker, aged-widow(er), or agedspouse benefits, and by applying termination rates to the number of retiredworker beneficiaries.

The long-range model projects the number of retired-worker beneficiaries

who were not previously converted from disabled-worker beneficiary status

as a percentage of the exposed population.1 For age 62, the model projects

this percentage by using a linear regression based on the historical relationship between this percentage, the employment rate2 at age 62, and the number of months from age 62 to normal retirement age. The percentage for ages

70 and over is nearly 100 because delayed retirement credits cannot be

earned after age 70. The long-range model projects the percentage for each

age 63 through 69 based on historical experience with an adjustment for

changes in the portion of the primary insurance amount that is payable at

each age of entitlement. The model adjusts these percentages for ages 62

through 69 to reflect changes in the normal retirement age.

The long-range model calculates the number of retired-worker beneficiaries

previously converted from disabled-worker beneficiary status using an

extension of disabled-worker death rates by age, sex, and duration.

The Office of the Chief Actuary estimates the number of aged-spouse beneficiaries, excluding those who are also receiving a retired-worker benefit, from

the population projected by age and sex. Benefits of aged-spouse beneficia-

 1 The exposed population is the fully insured population age 62 and over, excluding persons entitled to or

converted from disabled-worker benefits and fully insured persons entitled only to widow(er) benefits.

 2 The employment rate is the ratio of U.S. civilian employment to the civilian noninstitutional population.
Assumptions and Methods

132

ries depend on the earnings records of their husbands or wives, who are

referred to as “earners.” The short-range model projects insured aged-spouse

beneficiaries in conjunction with the retired-worker beneficiaries. This

model projects uninsured aged-spouse beneficiaries by applying award rates

to the aged uninsured male or female population and by applying termination

rates to the population already receiving such benefits.

The long-range model estimates aged-spouse beneficiaries separately for

those married and divorced. The model projects the number of married agedspouse beneficiaries, by age and sex, by applying a series of factors to the

number of spouses, aged 62 and over, in the population. These factors are the

probabilities that the spouse and the earner meet all of the conditions of

eligibility—that is, the probabilities that: (1) the earner is 62 or over, (2) the

earner is insured, (3) the earner is receiving benefits, (4) the spouse is not

receiving a benefit for the care of an entitled child, (5) the spouse is either

not insured or is insured but not receiving benefits, and (6) the spouse is not

eligible to receive a significant government pension based on earnings from

noncovered employment. To calculate the estimated number of aged-spouse

beneficiaries, the model applies a projected prevalence rate to the resulting

number of spouses. Due to the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015, for those turning age 62 in 2016 and later, deemed filing now applies to all retired workers

and spouses even after initial entitlement, regardless of age. Thus, spouses

who are insured are no longer eligible to delay their retired-worker benefit

while receiving an aged-spouse benefit.

The long-range model estimates the number of divorced aged-spouse beneficiaries, by age and sex, by applying the same factors to the number of

divorced persons aged 62 and over in the population, with three differences.

First, the model applies a factor to reflect the probability that the earner (former spouse) is still alive. If the former spouse is not alive, the person may be

entitled to a divorced widow(er) benefit. Second, the model applies a factor

to reflect the probability that the marriage to the former spouse lasted at least

10 years. Third, the model does not apply factor (3) in the previous paragraph because, effective January 1985, a divorced person is generally no longer required to wait for the former spouse to receive benefits.

The Office of the Chief Actuary bases the projected numbers of children

under age 18, and students aged 18 and 19, who are eligible for benefits as

children of retired-worker beneficiaries, on the projected number of children

in the population. The short-range model develops the number of entitled

children by applying award rates to the number of children in the population

who have two living parents and by applying termination rates to the number

of children already receiving benefits.
133

Program Assumptions and Methods

The long-range model projects separately the number of entitled children by

sex of the earner parent. For each age under 18, the model multiplies the projected number of children with a parent aged 62 and over by the ratio of the

number of retired workers aged 62 to 71 to the number of members of the

population aged 62 to 71. For student beneficiaries, the model multiplies the

number of children aged 18 and 19 in the population by the probabilities that:

(1) the parent is alive, aged 62 or over, insured, and receiving a retiredworker benefit; and (2) the child is attending high school.

The Office of the Chief Actuary projects the number of disabled children,

aged 18 and over, of retired-worker beneficiaries from the adult population.

The short-range model applies award rates to the population and applies termination rates to the number of disabled children already receiving benefits.

The long-range model projects the number of disabled children in a manner

similar to that used for student children except for a factor that reflects the

probability of being disabled before age 22.

The short-range model develops the number of spouses of retired workers,

who are entitled to spouse benefits because they are caring for a child who is

under age 16 or disabled, by applying award rates to the number of awards to

children of retired workers and by applying termination rates to the number

of young spouses with a child in their care who are already receiving benefits. The long-range model projects the number of young-spouse beneficiaries with a child in their care as a proportion of the number of child

beneficiaries of retired workers, including projected changes in average family size.

The Office of the Chief Actuary projects the number of aged-widow(er) beneficiaries, excluding those who are also receiving a retired-worker benefit,

from the population by age and sex. The short-range model projects fully

insured aged-widow(er) beneficiaries in conjunction with the retired-worker

beneficiaries. The model projects the number of uninsured aged-widow(er)

beneficiaries by applying award rates to the aged uninsured male or female

population and by applying termination rates to the population already

receiving such benefits. The long-range model projects uninsured agedwidow(er) beneficiaries by marital status. The model multiplies the number

of widow(er)s in the population aged 60 and over by the probabilities that:

(1) the deceased earner is fully insured at death, (2) the widow(er) is not

receiving a benefit for the care of an entitled child, (3) the widow(er) is not

fully insured, and (4) the widow(er) benefits are not withheld because of

receipt of a significant government pension based on earnings in noncovered

employment. In addition, the model applies the same factors to the number

of divorced persons aged 60 and over in the population and includes addi-
Assumptions and Methods

134

tional factors representing the probability that the person’s former earner

spouse has died and that the marriage lasted at least 10 years. The model

projects the number of insured aged-widow(er) beneficiaries who are ages

60 through 71 in a manner similar to that for uninsured aged-widow(er) beneficiaries. In addition, the model assumes that some insured widow(er)s who

had not applied for their retired-worker benefits will receive widow(er) benefits. The model projects insured aged-widow(er) beneficiaries over age 71 by

applying termination rates to the population that started receiving such benefits prior to age 71.

The short-range model develops the number of disabled-widow(er) beneficiaries by applying award rates to the uninsured male or female population

and by applying termination rates to the population already receiving a disabled-widow(er) benefit. The long-range model projects the number for each

cohort by age from 50 to normal retirement age as percentages of the widowed and divorced populations, adjusted for the insured status of the

deceased spouse, the prevalence of disability, and the probability that the disabled spouse is not receiving another type of benefit.

The Office of the Chief Actuary bases the projected number of children

under age 18, and students aged 18 and 19, who are entitled to benefits as

survivors of deceased workers, on the number of children in the population

whose mothers or fathers are deceased. The short-range model develops the

number of entitled children by applying award rates to the number of

orphaned children and by applying termination rates to the number of children already receiving benefits.

The long-range model projects the number of surviving-child beneficiaries in

a manner similar to that for student beneficiaries of retired workers, except

that the model replaces the probability that the parent is aged 62 or over with

the probability that the parent is deceased.

The Office of the Chief Actuary projects the number of surviving-disabledchild beneficiaries, aged 18 and over, from the adult population. The shortrange model applies award rates to the population and applies termination

rates to the number of surviving-disabled-child beneficiaries already receiving benefits. The long-range model projects the number of surviving-disabled-child beneficiaries in a manner similar to that for surviving-studentchild beneficiaries, except for including an additional factor to reflect the

probability of being disabled before age 22.

The short-range model develops the numbers of entitled surviving-mother

and surviving-father beneficiaries by applying award rates to the number of

awards to surviving-child beneficiaries, in cases where the children are either
135

Program Assumptions and Methods

under age 16 or disabled, and by applying termination rates to the number of

surviving-mother and surviving-father beneficiaries already receiving benefits. The long-range model estimates the numbers of surviving-mother and

surviving-father beneficiaries, assuming they are not remarried, from the

number of surviving-child beneficiaries.

The Office of the Chief Actuary projects the number of surviving-parent

beneficiaries based on the historical pattern of the number of such beneficiaries.

Table V.C4 shows the projected number of beneficiaries under the OASI program by type of benefit. The retired-worker beneficiary counts include those

persons who receive a residual auxiliary benefit in addition to their retiredworker benefit. The office makes estimates of the number and amount of

residual payments separately for spouses and widow(er)s.

Table V.C4.—OASI Beneficiaries With Benefits in Current-Payment Status

at the End of Calendar Years 1945-2100

[In thousands]

Calendar year

Retired workers and auxiliaries Survivors

Worker Total a Spouse Child

WidowwidowerMotherfather Child Parent

Historical data:

1945 . . . . . . . . . . 518 159 13 94 121 377 6 1,288

1950 . . . . . . . . . . 1,771 508 46 314 169 653 15 3,477

1955 . . . . . . . . . . 4,474 1,192 122 701 292 1,154 25 7,961

1960 . . . . . . . . . . 8,061 2,269 268 1,544 401 1,577 36 14,157

1965 . . . . . . . . . . 11,101 2,614 461 2,371 472 2,074 35 19,128

1970 . . . . . . . . . . 13,349 2,668 546 3,227 523 2,688 29 23,030

1975 . . . . . . . . . . 16,589 2,867 643 3,888 582 2,919 21 27,509

1980 . . . . . . . . . . 19,564 3,018 639 4,415 563 2,610 15 30,823

1985 . . . . . . . . . . 22,435 3,069 456 4,862 372 1,918 10 33,122

1990 . . . . . . . . . . 24,841 3,104 421 5,098 304 1,777 6 35,551

1995 . . . . . . . . . . 26,679 3,027 441 5,213 275 1,884 4 37,522

2000 . . . . . . . . . . 28,505 2,798 459 4,901 203 1,878 3 38,747

2005 . . . . . . . . . . 30,461 2,524 488 4,569 178 1,903 2 40,126

2010 . . . . . . . . . . 34,593 2,316 580 4,285 159 1,913 2 43,847

2015 . . . . . . . . . . 40,089 2,335 648 4,050 140 1,893 1 49,155

2016 . . . . . . . . . . 41,233 2,370 661 4,004 133 1,893 1 50,296

2017 . . . . . . . . . . 42,447 2,375 675 3,961 128 1,904 1 51,491

2018 . . . . . . . . . . 43,721 2,391 690 3,908 121 1,911 1 52,743

2019 . . . . . . . . . . 45,094 2,430 701 3,878 117 1,916 1 54,137

2020 . . . . . . . . . . 46,330 2,323 704 3,823 115 1,936 1 55,231

2021 . . . . . . . . . . 47,293 2,165 687 3,773 114 1,976 1 56,009

2022 . . . . . . . . . . 48,588 2,022 682 3,728 112 2,020 1 57,152

Intermediate:

2023 . . . . . . . . . . 50,059 1,858 712 3,695 109 2,041 1 58,476

2025 . . . . . . . . . . 52,853 1,750 755 3,643 105 2,056 1 61,163

2030 . . . . . . . . . . 59,486 1,626 865 3,520 95 2,111 1 67,705

2035 . . . . . . . . . . 63,776 1,561 972 3,289 106 2,151 1 71,855

2040 . . . . . . . . . . 66,187 1,415 1,092 3,002 127 2,194 1 74,018

2045 . . . . . . . . . . 67,417 1,317 1,217 2,800 133 2,225 1 75,109

2050 . . . . . . . . . . 69,190 1,287 1,308 2,664 131 2,214 1 76,796
Assumptions and Methods

136

Notes:

1. The number of beneficiaries does not include uninsured individuals who receive benefits under

section 228 of the Social Security Act. Transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury reimburse the OASI

Trust Fund for the cost of most of these individuals.

2. Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Intermediate (Cont.):

2055 . . . . . . . . . . 71,765 1,280 1,381 2,560 128 2,178 1 79,292

2060 . . . . . . . . . . 75,341 1,262 1,464 2,473 123 2,115 1 82,778

2065 . . . . . . . . . . 78,638 1,251 1,494 2,424 120 2,062 1 85,989

2070 . . . . . . . . . . 81,810 1,252 1,521 2,405 118 2,041 1 89,149

2075 . . . . . . . . . . 84,845 1,262 1,558 2,383 117 2,043 1 92,209

2080 . . . . . . . . . . 86,757 1,264 1,570 2,335 116 2,041 1 94,084

2085 . . . . . . . . . . 87,626 1,268 1,574 2,277 114 2,022 1 94,881

2090 . . . . . . . . . . 88,032 1,288 1,573 2,236 111 1,992 1 95,233

2095 . . . . . . . . . . 89,429 1,327 1,615 2,219 108 1,964 1 96,664

2100 . . . . . . . . . . 92,017 1,378 1,669 2,221 106 1,942 1 99,333

Low-cost:

2023 . . . . . . . . . . 50,029 1,858 714 3,692 110 2,046 1 58,449

2025 . . . . . . . . . . 52,739 1,750 760 3,637 106 2,074 1 61,066

2030 . . . . . . . . . . 59,016 1,633 884 3,503 100 2,186 1 67,322

2035 . . . . . . . . . . 62,533 1,545 1,005 3,336 105 2,349 1 70,874

2040 . . . . . . . . . . 64,067 1,397 1,152 3,074 128 2,528 1 72,346

2045 . . . . . . . . . . 64,500 1,284 1,302 2,891 137 2,662 1 72,778

2050 . . . . . . . . . . 65,508 1,227 1,411 2,765 139 2,727 1 73,778

2055 . . . . . . . . . . 67,423 1,187 1,502 2,659 140 2,753 1 75,664

2060 . . . . . . . . . . 70,367 1,146 1,619 2,564 140 2,756 1 78,593

2065 . . . . . . . . . . 73,048 1,115 1,676 2,502 143 2,789 1 81,273

2070 . . . . . . . . . . 75,501 1,098 1,721 2,477 148 2,881 1 83,828

2075 . . . . . . . . . . 77,747 1,090 1,785 2,452 155 3,005 1 86,234

2080 . . . . . . . . . . 78,899 1,070 1,814 2,411 160 3,111 1 87,467

2085 . . . . . . . . . . 79,123 1,050 1,832 2,375 163 3,180 1 87,724

2090 . . . . . . . . . . 79,424 1,056 1,848 2,384 166 3,234 1 88,112

2095 . . . . . . . . . . 81,729 1,096 1,952 2,436 169 3,296 1 90,680

2100 . . . . . . . . . . 85,763 1,140 2,063 2,506 174 3,377 1 95,023

High-cost:

2023 . . . . . . . . . . 50,098 1,858 711 3,699 109 2,036 1 58,511

2025 . . . . . . . . . . 52,999 1,750 751 3,652 104 2,038 1 61,294

2030 . . . . . . . . . . 60,109 1,621 847 3,544 90 2,029 1 68,243

2035 . . . . . . . . . . 65,450 1,594 930 3,224 101 1,923 1 73,223

2040 . . . . . . . . . . 69,088 1,450 1,010 2,889 114 1,815 1 76,366

2045 . . . . . . . . . . 71,537 1,373 1,098 2,645 116 1,744 1 78,514

2050 . . . . . . . . . . 74,439 1,370 1,169 2,477 109 1,671 1 81,236

2055 . . . . . . . . . . 77,950 1,394 1,224 2,352 101 1,592 1 84,613

2060 . . . . . . . . . . 82,358 1,405 1,265 2,252 92 1,493 1 88,865

2065 . . . . . . . . . . 86,407 1,416 1,258 2,201 83 1,398 1 92,764

2070 . . . . . . . . . . 90,340 1,446 1,253 2,178 76 1,322 1 96,616

2075 . . . . . . . . . . 94,108 1,485 1,250 2,158 71 1,265 1 100,338

2080 . . . . . . . . . . 96,708 1,516 1,234 2,111 66 1,217 1 102,851

2085 . . . . . . . . . . 98,097 1,528 1,216 2,036 61 1,167 1 104,105

2090 . . . . . . . . . . 98,223 1,537 1,189 1,953 56 1,115 1 104,073

2095 . . . . . . . . . . 97,792 1,545 1,170 1,875 51 1,065 1 103,498

2100 . . . . . . . . . . 97,694 1,567 1,165 1,833 47 1,017 1 103,323

a Retired-worker beneficiaries include persons who also receive a residual benefit consisting of the excess of

an auxiliary benefit over their retired-worker benefit.

Table V.C4.—OASI Beneficiaries With Benefits in Current-Payment Status

at the End of Calendar Years 1945-2100 (Cont.)

[In thousands]

Calendar year

Retired workers and auxiliaries Survivors

Worker Total a Spouse Child

WidowwidowerMotherfather Child Parent
137

Program Assumptions and Methods

5. Disability Insurance Beneficiaries

The DI Trust Fund pays for benefits to workers who: (1) satisfy the disability

insured requirements, (2) have applied for disabled-worker benefits, (3) are

determined to be unable to engage in any substantial gainful activity due to a

medically determinable physical or mental impairment severe enough to satisfy the requirements of the program, and (4) have not yet attained normal

retirement age. Spouses and children of such disabled-worker beneficiaries

may also receive DI benefits provided they satisfy certain criteria, primarily

age and earnings requirements.

The Office of the Chief Actuary projects the number of disabled-worker beneficiaries in current-payment status (disability prevalence) for each future

year. The projections start with the number in current-payment status as of

December 2022. Projections of the number of applicants and new beneficiaries awarded benefits each year (disability incidence) and the number of beneficiaries leaving the disability rolls each year then determine the number in

current-payment status in later years. Beneficiaries leave the rolls due to

death and recovery (disability terminations) and due to conversion from disabled-worker to retired-worker beneficiary status at normal retirement age,

after which the OASI Trust Fund pays for benefits. The remainder of this

section describes the concepts of disability incidence, termination, and prevalence.

a. Disability Incidence

The disability incidence rate is the ratio of the number of applicants newly

awarded disabled-worker benefits during each year to the number of individuals who meet insured requirements but are not yet receiving benefits (the

disability-exposed population1). The Office of the Chief Actuary projects the

number of newly awarded beneficiaries for each future year by multiplying

assumed age-sex-specific disability incidence rates and the projected disability-exposed population by age and sex.

Figure V.C3 illustrates the projected incidence rates under the three alternatives along with historical rates. Incidence rates have varied substantially

during the historical period since 1970 due to a variety of demographic and

economic factors, along with changes in legislation and program administration. The solid lines in figure V.C3 show the age-sex-adjusted incidence rate

consistent with the age-sex distribution of the disability-exposed population

 1 The disability-exposed population excludes those receiving benefits, while the disability insured population includes them. Section V.C.3 of this report describes the projection of the disability insured population.
Assumptions and Methods

138

for 2000. This adjustment allows a meaningful comparison of incidence rates

over time by focusing on the likelihood of being awarded disabled-worker

benefits, excluding the effects of a changing distribution of the population

toward ages where disability is more or less likely.

The dashed lines in figure V.C3 represent the gross (unadjusted) incidence

rates. The changing age-sex distribution of the exposed population over time

influences these unadjusted rates. The gross incidence rate declined relative

to the age-sex-adjusted rate between 1970 and 1990 as the baby-boom generation increased the size of the younger working-age population, where disability incidence is lower than in older populations. Between 1990 and 2010,

the gross rate increased relative to the age-sex-adjusted rate as the babyboom generation moved into an age range where disability incidence is

higher. The projected gross incidence rate generally declines relative to the

age-sex-adjusted rate as the baby-boom generation moves above the normal

retirement age and the lower-birth-rate cohorts of the 1970s enter prime disability ages (50 to normal retirement age). As these smaller cohorts age

beyond normal retirement age, by about 2050, the gross incidence rate

returns to a higher relative level under the intermediate assumptions. Thereafter, the gross rate remains higher than the age-sex-adjusted rate, and

reflects the persistently higher average age of the working-age population

compared to the population in 2000, which is largely due to lower birth rates

since 1965, and to the increase in the normal retirement age.

For the first 10 years of the projection period (through 2032), incidence rates

reflect several factors following on the experience since the recession of

2007-09. At the beginning of the period of high unemployment that began in

2007, disability incidence rates started to rise to a level well above the general trend level, with rates reaching a peak in 2010. Between 2010 and 2012,

incidence rates subsided as the economy recovered, but the decline continued

after 2012, reaching levels well below those expected over the long-term. A

portion of the elevation of disability incidence rates experienced during the

recession of 2007-09 likely contributed to the lowering of incidence rates

experienced during and subsequent to the economic recovery that followed,

as many individuals applied for disability benefits earlier than they would

have otherwise. 

For 2022, the actual age-sex-adjusted incidence rate (2.9 per thousand) was

below the level projected in last year’s report (3.2 per thousand). In this

year’s report, incidence rates under the intermediate alternative are projected

to rise more slowly early in the projection period than in last year’s report,

consistent with the low incidence levels experienced recently. Incidence rates

are projected to rise to a temporary peak level for 2027 as some of the
139

Program Assumptions and Methods

reduced levels of new benefit awards in the pandemic period are realized in

the next few years. After 2027, incidence rates gradually decline through the

rest of the short-range period to the ultimate assumed level of incidence. 

In 2032, at the end of the short-range period, age-sex-specific incidence rates

are assumed to reach the ultimate rates assumed for the long-range projections. These ultimate age-sex-specific disability incidence rates were

selected based on careful analysis of historical levels and patterns and

expected future conditions, including the impact of scheduled increases in

the normal retirement age.1 The ultimate incidence rates represent the

expected average rates of incidence for the future.

For the intermediate alternative, the Trustees assume that the ultimate agesex-adjusted incidence rate (adjusted to the disability-exposed population for

the year 2000) will be 4.8 awards per thousand exposed, which is the same as

in last year’s report. Figure V.C3 illustrates that the age-sex-adjusted incidence rate averaged 5.0 per thousand over the historical period

1970 through 2022, but has dropped substantially below that level since

2013. The rates seen in recent years are not consistent with an assumption of

a full rise back to longer-term past historical averages. The Trustees continue

to monitor experience and review the disability incidence rate assumption. 

The Trustees assume that the ultimate age-sex-adjusted incidence rates for

the low-cost and high-cost alternatives will be 3.8 and 5.8 awards per thousand exposed, or about 20 percent lower and higher, respectively, than the

ultimate incidence rate for the intermediate alternative. These ultimate lowcost and high-cost incidence rates are similar to those in last year’s report.

 1 Projected incidence rates are adjusted upward to account for additional workers who are expected to file

for disability benefits (rather than retirement benefits) in response to reductions in retirement benefits as the

normal retirement age rises.
Assumptions and Methods

140

b. Disability Termination

Beneficiaries stop receiving disability benefits when they die, experience an

improvement in their medically-determinable impairment such that they are

deemed able to engage in substantial gainful activity, or return to substantial

work. Disabled-worker beneficiaries who return to substantial work for an

extended period are deemed to have recovered, and their benefits are then

terminated. The termination rate is the ratio of the number of terminations

for these reasons to the average number of disabled-worker beneficiaries

during the year.

The Office of the Chief Actuary projects termination rates by age, sex, and

reason for termination. In addition, the office projects termination rates by

duration of entitlement to disabled-worker benefits in the long-range period

(post-2032).

In the short-range period (through 2032), the projected age-sex-adjusted

death rate (adjusted to the 2000 disabled-worker beneficiary population)

under the intermediate assumptions declines from the temporarily elevated

rate of 28.6 deaths per thousand beneficiaries for 2022 to about 23.8 per

thousand for 2032. These rates are assumed to remain elevated through 2024

 Figure V.C3.—DI Disability Incidence Rates, 1970-2100

[Awards per thousand disability-exposed]

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Calendar year

Gross incidence rates

Age-sex-adjusted incidence

rates

I

II

Historical Projected

III

III

II

I
141

Program Assumptions and Methods

due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and then return to follow the underlying

declining trend in general population mortality. The projected age-sexadjusted recovery rate (medical improvement and return to substantial work)

under the intermediate assumptions decreases from the relatively high level

of 19.6 per thousand beneficiaries for 2022 to 10.4 per thousand beneficiaries for 2032. The recovery rate has been high in recent years due to an ongoing administrative effort to eliminate a backlog of medical continuing

disability reviews. The recovery rate is expected to decrease as the backlog

of disabled-worker reviews is assumed to be eliminated by the end of 2025.

Thereafter, the rate decreases toward the expected long-term projected rate.

Under the low-cost and high-cost assumptions, total age-sex-adjusted termination rates due to death and recovery are roughly 10 to 20 percent higher or

lower, respectively, than under the intermediate assumptions.

For the long-range period (post-2032), the Office of the Chief Actuary projects death and recovery rates by age, sex, and duration of entitlement relative

to the average level of rates experienced over the base period 2011 through

2015. The assumed ultimate age-sex-adjusted recovery rate for disabledworker beneficiaries is 10.4 per thousand beneficiaries under the intermediate alternative.1 The assumed ultimate age-sex-adjusted recovery rates for

the low-cost and high-cost alternatives are 12.5 and 8.3 recoveries per thousand beneficiaries, respectively. Death rates by age and sex change throughout the long-range period at the same rate as death rates in the general

population. The age-sex-adjusted death rate decreases from 28.6 per thousand beneficiaries in 2022 to 21.5, 12.4, and 6.1 per thousand disabledworker beneficiaries for 2097 under the low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost

assumptions, respectively.

Figure V.C4 illustrates gross and age-sex-adjusted total termination rates

(including both recoveries and deaths) for disabled-worker beneficiaries for

the historical period since 1970, and for the projection period through 2100.

As with incidence rates, the age-sex-adjusted termination rate illustrates the

real change in the tendency to terminate benefits. Changes in the age-sex distribution of the beneficiary population influence the gross termination rate. A

shift in the disabled-worker beneficiary population to older ages, as occurred

over the past 20 years when the baby-boom generation moved into pre-retirement ages, increases gross death termination rates relative to the age-sexadjusted rates.

 1 The disability recovery rates for each alternative vary slightly over the last 65 years of the 75-year projection period, so the ultimate rates are presented as averages for years 2033 through 2097.
Assumptions and Methods

142

c. Comparison of Incidence, Termination, and Conversion

Incidence and termination rates are the foundation for projecting the number

of disabled-worker beneficiaries in current-payment status. At normal retirement age, all disabled-worker beneficiaries convert to retired-worker status

and leave the DI rolls. 

Figure V.C5 compares the historical and projected (intermediate) levels of

incidence, termination, and conversion on an age-sex-adjusted basis. Incidence rates have varied widely, and the Trustees expect the age-sex adjusted

rates under the intermediate assumptions to remain near the middle of the

high and low extremes experienced since 1970. Termination rates have

declined and the Trustees expect them to continue to decline, largely because

of declining death rates. 

Conversions are a transfer of beneficiaries at normal retirement age from the

DI program to the OASI program. Therefore, the disability “conversion” rate

is 100 percent for disabled-worker beneficiaries reaching normal retirement

age in a given year. After conversion, recovery from the disabling condition

is no longer relevant for benefit eligibility. The conversion ratio is the number of conversions in a given year (that is, beneficiaries who reach normal

 Figure V.C4.—DI Disability Termination Rates, 1970-2100

[Terminations per thousand disabled-worker beneficiaries]

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Calendar year

Gross termination rates

Age-sex-adjusted termination

rates

II

III

Historical Projected

I
143

Program Assumptions and Methods

retirement age) divided by the average number of disabled-worker beneficiaries at all ages in that year. The ratio is constant on an age-sex-adjusted basis,

except for the two periods during which normal retirement age increases

under current law.

d. DI Beneficiaries and Disability Prevalence Rates

The Office of the Chief Actuary makes detailed projections of disabledworker awards, terminations, and conversions and combines these to project

the number of disabled workers receiving benefits over the next 75 years.

Table V.C5 presents the projected numbers of disabled-worker beneficiaries

in current-payment status. The number of disabled-worker beneficiaries in

current-payment status grows from 7.6 million at the end of 2022, to

10.9 million, 12.6 million, and 12.6 million at the end of 2100, under the

low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost assumptions, respectively. Of course,

much of this growth results from the growth and changing age distribution of

the population described earlier in this chapter. Table V.C5 also presents projected numbers of auxiliary beneficiaries and disability prevalence rates on

both a gross basis and an age-sex-adjusted basis.

 Figure V.C5.—Comparison of DI Disability Incidence Rates, Termination Rates and 

Conversion Ratios Under Intermediate Assumptions, 1970-2100

[Awards per thousand disability-exposed;

terminations and conversions per thousand disabled-worker beneficiaries]

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Termination rates &

Conversion ratios

Incidence rates

Calendar year

Age-sex-adjusted incidence rates

Age-sex-adjusted conversion ratios

Historical Projected

Age-sex-adjusted termination rates
Assumptions and Methods

144

Table V.C5.—DI Beneficiaries With Benefits in Current-Payment Status

at the End of Calendar Years 1960-2100

[Beneficiaries in thousands; prevalence rates per thousand persons insured for disability benefits]

Calendar year

Disabledworker

beneficiaries

Auxiliary beneficiaries

Total

beneficiaries

Disability

prevalence rates

Spouse Child Gross

Age-sexadjusteda

Historical data:

1960 . . . . . . . . . . . . 455 77 155 687

1965 . . . . . . . . . . . . 988 193 558 1,739

1970 . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,493 283 889 2,665 20 18

1975 . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,488 453 1,411 4,351 29 28

1980 . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,856 462 1,359 4,677 28 31

1985 . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,653 306 945 3,904 24 26

1990 . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,007 266 989 4,261 25 28

1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,179 264 1,409 5,852 33 35

2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,036 165 1,466 6,667 36 36

2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,519 157 1,633 8,309 45 40

2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,204 161 1,820 10,185 55 44

2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,909 143 1,756 10,808 59 45

2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,809 136 1,667 10,612 58 44

2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,695 127 1,590 10,412 57 43

2018 . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,537 119 1,507 10,164 55 41

2019 . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,378 114 1,434 9,927 54 40

2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,151 105 1,364 9,620 52 39

2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,877 97 1,245 9,219 50 37

2022 . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,604 92 1,146 8,842 48 34

Intermediate:

2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,416 90 1,100 8,606 46 33

2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,518 90 1,092 8,700 47 33

2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,845 89 1,211 9,145 48 35

2035 . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,233 90 1,357 9,681 49 37

2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,775 91 1,589 10,455 52 39

2045 . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,518 103 1,784 11,405 55 40

2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,040 106 1,900 12,046 58 41

2055 . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,433 108 1,966 12,507 59 42

2060 . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,509 104 1,982 12,595 59 42

2065 . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,658 106 1,987 12,751 59 42

2070 . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,795 110 2,020 12,926 59 42

2075 . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,756 110 2,086 12,952 58 43

2080 . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,851 111 2,168 13,131 57 43

2085 . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,106 114 2,242 13,461 57 43

2090 . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,667 121 2,302 14,090 58 43

2095 . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,185 125 2,350 14,660 59 43

2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,550 129 2,399 15,078 60 43

Low-cost:

2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,379 90 1,093 8,562 46 33

2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,301 90 1,056 8,447 45 32

2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,948 88 1,077 8,112 42 31

2035 . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,826 74 1,164 8,064 40 30

2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,998 70 1,359 8,427 41 30

2045 . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,447 75 1,528 9,050 42 31

2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,779 75 1,622 9,476 43 31

2055 . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,054 75 1,677 9,805 43 32

2060 . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,119 71 1,699 9,889 43 32

2065 . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,259 73 1,727 10,058 42 32

2070 . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,415 75 1,795 10,285 41 32

2075 . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,481 75 1,899 10,455 40 32

2080 . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,705 76 2,014 10,795 40 32

2085 . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,134 78 2,114 11,326 40 32

2090 . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,860 86 2,200 12,146 41 32

2095 . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,450 90 2,279 12,819 42 32

2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,870 91 2,368 13,329 42 32
145

Program Assumptions and Methods

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

The disability prevalence rate is the ratio of the number of disabled-worker

beneficiaries in current-payment status to the number of persons insured for

disability benefits. Figure V.C6 illustrates the historical and projected disability prevalence rates on both a gross basis and on an age-sex-adjusted

basis (adjusted to the age-sex distribution of the disability insured population

for the year 2000).

Changes in prevalence rates are a direct result of changes in incidence rates

and termination rates. Figure V.C5 depicts patterns for incidence and termination rates, which are helpful for understanding the trend in prevalence

rates. Annual incidence and termination rates are not directly comparable or

combinable because their denominators differ.

High-cost:

2023. . . . . . . . . . . . 7,452 90 1,105 8,647 47 33

2025. . . . . . . . . . . . 7,750 91 1,129 8,969 48 34

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . 8,706 90 1,312 10,107 54 40

2035. . . . . . . . . . . . 9,627 107 1,491 11,225 59 44

2040. . . . . . . . . . . . 10,556 114 1,689 12,358 63 47

2045. . . . . . . . . . . . 11,614 135 1,861 13,609 69 49

2050. . . . . . . . . . . . 12,332 142 1,972 14,446 74 51

2055. . . . . . . . . . . . 12,839 146 2,033 15,018 78 52

2060. . . . . . . . . . . . 12,894 141 2,027 15,062 79 53

2065. . . . . . . . . . . . 13,001 143 1,986 15,130 80 53

2070. . . . . . . . . . . . 13,028 148 1,947 15,123 81 53

2075. . . . . . . . . . . . 12,740 146 1,927 14,813 81 53

2080. . . . . . . . . . . . 12,492 145 1,934 14,571 80 54

2085. . . . . . . . . . . . 12,249 143 1,948 14,340 79 54

2090. . . . . . . . . . . . 12,230 144 1,954 14,327 80 54

2095. . . . . . . . . . . . 12,421 147 1,945 14,513 81 54

2100. . . . . . . . . . . . 12,556 150 1,927 14,632 82 54

a Adjusted to the age-sex distribution of the disability insured population for the year 2000.

Table V.C5.—DI Beneficiaries With Benefits in Current-Payment Status

at the End of Calendar Years 1960-2100 (Cont.)

[Beneficiaries in thousands; prevalence rates per thousand persons insured for disability benefits]

Calendar year

Disabledworker

beneficiaries

Auxiliary beneficiaries

Total

beneficiaries

Disability

prevalence rates

Spouse Child Gross

Age-sexadjusteda
Assumptions and Methods

146

Age-sex-adjusted prevalence rates have increased primarily because: (1) termination rates, in particular death termination rates, have declined;

(2) incidence rates at younger ages have increased relative to rates at older

ages (new beneficiaries at younger ages have more potential years on the disability rolls); (3) incidence rates have increased substantially for women to

parity with men; and (4) the maturation of the DI program (disabled-worker

benefits became available to those over age 50 at the start of the program in

1957 and to younger workers in 1960, and disability insured status requirements were eased for those under age 31 in 1968). Gross prevalence rates

have increased more than age-sex-adjusted prevalence rates since the babyboom generation began to reach ages 45 through normal retirement age, a

time of life when disability incidence rates are relatively high. The Office of

the Chief Actuary projects both gross and age-sex adjusted prevalence rates

to grow at a slower pace based on assumed stabilization in these four factors:

(1) the age distribution of the general population, (2) the age distribution of

the disability insured population, (3) incidence rates by age and sex, and

(4) DI program age and insured requirements. As these factors gradually stabilize, the declining death termination rate continues to have a small influence toward higher disability prevalence rates.

 Figure V.C6.—DI Disability Prevalence Rates, 1970-2100

[Rate per thousand persons insured for disability benefits]

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Calendar year

Gross prevalence rates

Age-sex-adjusted prevalence

rates

II III

II

I

I

Historical Projected

III
147

Program Assumptions and Methods

As mentioned above in the discussion of incidence and termination rates, the

age-sex-adjusted prevalence rate isolates the changing trend in the underlying likelihood of receiving benefits for the insured population, without

reflecting changes in the age and sex distribution of the population. As with

incidence rates, gross disability prevalence rates declined relative to the agesex-adjusted rate when the baby-boom generation reached working age

between 1970 and 1990; this trend reflects the lower disability prevalence

rates associated with younger ages. Conversely, the gross rate of disability

prevalence has increased relative to the age-sex-adjusted rate after 1990 due

to the aging of the baby-boom generation into ages with higher disability

prevalence rates.

Under the intermediate assumptions, the projected age-sex-adjusted disability prevalence rate grows from 34.4 per thousand disability insured workers

at the end of 2022 to 43.4 per thousand at the end of 2100. The projected

age-sex-adjusted disability prevalence rate at the end of 2100 is 32.4 per

thousand under the low-cost assumptions and 54.4 per thousand under the

high-cost assumptions.

Table V.C5 presents projections of the numbers of auxiliary beneficiaries

paid from the DI Trust Fund. As indicated at the beginning of this subsection, auxiliary beneficiaries are qualifying spouses and children of disabledworker beneficiaries. A spouse must either be at least age 62 or have an eligible child beneficiary in his or her care who is either under age 16 or disabled

prior to age 22. A child must be: (1) under age 18, (2) age 18 or 19 and still a

student in high school, or (3) age 18 or older and disabled prior to age 22.

The projection of the number of auxiliary beneficiaries relies on the projected number of disabled-worker beneficiaries. In the short-range period

(2023 through 2032), the Office of the Chief Actuary projects incidence and

termination rates for each category of auxiliary beneficiary. After 2032, the

office projects child beneficiaries at ages 18 and under in relation to the projected number of children in the population using the probability that either

of their parents is a disabled-worker beneficiary. The office projects the

remaining categories of children and spouses in a similar manner.

6. Covered and Taxable Earnings, Taxable Payroll, and Payroll Tax

Contributions

Covered earnings include both covered wages and covered self-employment

net earnings. The Office of the Chief Actuary projects covered wages for

component sectors of the economy (i.e., private, State and local government,

Federal civilian, and military) based on the projected overall growth of sec-
Assumptions and Methods

148

toral and total wages in the U.S. economy. The projections of covered wages

also reflect changes in covered employment due to a relative increase in noncovered undocumented immigrants and to the mandatory coverage of new

hires in the Federal civilian sector. The office projects covered self-employment net earnings based on the growth in net proprietors’ income in the U.S.

economy.

Taxable earnings are the portion of covered earnings subject to the Social

Security payroll tax. Taxable wages for an employee are total covered wages

from all wage employment up to the contribution and benefit base. Taxable

wages for an employer are the sum of all covered wages paid to each

employee up to the base. Employees with multiple jobs whose total wages

exceed the base are eligible for a refund of excess employee taxes withheld;

employers are not eligible for a refund on this basis. For self-employed

workers with no taxable wages, taxable earnings are the amount of covered

self-employment net earnings up to the base. For self-employed workers

with taxable wages less than the base, covered self-employment net earnings

are taxable up to the difference between the base and their taxable wages.

For projection purposes, the Office of the Chief Actuary computes taxable

earnings based on a proportion of covered earnings that is at or below the

base.

The OASDI taxable payroll (see table VI.G6) for a year is computed as the

amount of earnings which, when multiplied by the combined OASDI

employee-employer payroll tax rate for that year, yields the total amount of

payroll taxes due from wages paid and self-employment net earnings for the

year. Taxable payroll is used as the denominator for income rates, cost rates,

and actuarial balances. Taxable payroll is derived by adjusting total taxable

earnings to account for categories of earnings that are taxed at rates other

than the combined employee-employer rate and to take into account amounts

credited as wages that were not included in normally reported wages. For

1951 and later, taxable earnings are reduced by one-half of the amount of

wages paid to employees with multiple jobs that exceed the contribution and

benefit base. For 1983 through 2001, deemed wage credits for military service after 1956 are added to taxable earnings. The self-employment tax rates

for 1951 through 1983 were less than the combined employee-employer

rates; therefore, the self-employment component of taxable payroll for those

years is reduced by multiplying the ratio of the self-employment rate to the

combined employee-employer rate times the taxable self-employment net

earnings. Finally, for 1966 through 1979, employers were exempt from paying their share of payroll tax on their employees’ tips and, for 1980 through

1987, employers paid tax on only part of their employees’ tips. For those
149

Program Assumptions and Methods

years, the taxable payroll is reduced by half of the amount of tips for which

the employer owed no payroll tax.

The ratio of taxable payroll to covered earnings (the taxable ratio) declined

from 88.6 percent for 1984 to 82.6 percent for 2000, mostly due to much

larger increases in wage levels for very high earners than for all other earners. From 2000 to 2010, the taxable ratio varied with the business cycle, rising during economic downturns and declining during recoveries.

Specifically, the taxable ratio rose to 85.7 percent for 2002, declined to

82.4 percent for 2007, rose to 85.2 percent for 2009, and averaged

83.0 percent for the period 2010 to 2019. 

The ratio declined to 82.2 percent for 2020 from the previous year’s

83.1 percent. Unlike previous economic downturns, the pandemic-induced

recession led to a much greater decrease in wages for earners at the low end

of the earnings distribution than for those at the high end. This resulted in a

relatively higher proportion of total wages being above the contribution and

benefit base than has typically been the case in other economic downturns.

The ratio declined further to 81.0 percent for 2021, mainly due to increases

in bonuses paid to high earners and the exercising of stock options.

The taxable ratio for 2022 is estimated to increase to 82.3 percent for all

three alternatives. The ratio for the intermediate assumptions increases to

83.1 for 2023 and 83.2 for 2024. For the low-cost and high-cost alternatives,

the ratio for 2023 increases to 83.1 and 83.5, respectively. Subsequently, for

all three alternatives, the ratio gradually decreases to the levels assumed for

the end of the short-range period.

For this report, the Trustees assume a level for the taxable ratio at the end of

the short-range period (2032) of 84.0 percent for the low-cost assumptions,

82.5 percent for the intermediate assumptions, and 81.0 percent for the highcost assumptions.1 These are the same assumptions that the Trustees used for

the end of the short-range period (2031) for the 2022 report.

The Office of the Chief Actuary projects payroll tax contributions using the

patterns of tax collection required by Federal laws and regulations. The

office determines payroll tax liabilities by multiplying the scheduled tax rates

for each year by the amount of taxable wages and self-employment net earnings for that year. The office then splits these liabilities into amounts by collection period. For wages, Federal law requires that employers withhold

 1 The taxable ratio drifts down slightly after 2032, to 84.0, 82.3, and 80.7 percent for 2097 for the low-cost,

intermediate, and high-cost assumptions, respectively, as self-employment income (which has a lower percent taxable than wages) becomes an increasing share of total earnings.
Assumptions and Methods

150

OASDI and HI payroll taxes and Federal individual income taxes from

employees’ pay. As an employer’s accumulation of such taxes (including the

employer share of payroll taxes) meets certain thresholds, which the Department of the Treasury determines, the employer must deposit these taxes with

the U.S. Treasury by a specific day, depending on the amount of money

involved.1 For projection purposes, the office splits the payroll tax contributions related to wages into amounts paid in the same quarter as incurred and

in the following quarter. Self-employed workers must make estimated tax

payments on their earnings four times during the year and make up any

underestimate on their individual income tax returns. The projection splits

the self-employed tax liabilities by collection quarter to reflect this pattern. 

The projected tax contributions also reflect the method used to ensure that

money transferred to the trust funds is adjusted, over time, to equal the actual

liability owed. Because payers generally make tax payments without identifying the separate OASDI contribution amounts, Treasury makes daily transfers of money from the General Fund to the trust funds on an initial

estimated basis. The Social Security Administration periodically certifies the

amounts of wages and self-employment net earnings on which tax contributions are owed for each year, at which time Treasury determines adjustments

to appropriations to reconcile tax liabilities with deposits in the trust funds.

This process also includes periodic transfers from the trust funds to the General Fund for contributions on wages in excess of the contribution and benefit base.

Table V.C6 shows the payroll tax contribution rates applicable under current

law in each calendar year and the allocation of these rates between the OASI

and DI Trust Funds.2 It also shows the contribution and benefit base for each

year through 2023.

 1 Generally, the higher the amount of liability, the sooner the taxes must be paid. For smaller employers,

payment is due by the middle of the month following when the liability was incurred. Medium-size employers have three banking days in which to make their deposits. Larger employers must make payment on the

next business day after paying their employees.

 2 Table VI.G1 shows the payroll tax contribution rates for the Hospital Insurance (HI) program.
151

Program Assumptions and Methods

Table V.C6.—Contribution and Benefit Base and Payroll Tax Contribution Rates

Calendar years

Contribution

and benefit 

base

Payroll tax contribution rates (percent)

Employees and employers, 

combineda Self-employedb

OASDI OASI DI OASDI OASI DI

1937-49 . . . . . . . . . $3,000 2.00 2.00 — — — —

1950. . . . . . . . . . . . 3,000 3.00 3.00 — — — —

1951-53 . . . . . . . . . 3,600 3.00 3.00 — 2.2500 2.2500 —

1954. . . . . . . . . . . . 3,600 4.00 4.00 — 3.0000 3.0000 —

1955-56 . . . . . . . . . 4,200 4.00 4.00 — 3.0000 3.0000 —

1957-58 . . . . . . . . . 4,200 4.50 4.00 0.50 3.3750 3.0000 0.3750

1959. . . . . . . . . . . . 4,800 5.00 4.50 .50 3.7500 3.3750 .3750

1960-61 . . . . . . . . . 4,800 6.00 5.50 .50 4.5000 4.1250 .3750

1962. . . . . . . . . . . . 4,800 6.25 5.75 .50 4.7000 4.3250 .3750

1963-65 . . . . . . . . . 4,800 7.25 6.75 .50 5.4000 5.0250 .3750

1966. . . . . . . . . . . . 6,600 7.70 7.00 .70 5.8000 5.2750 .5250

1967. . . . . . . . . . . . 6,600 7.80 7.10 .70 5.9000 5.3750 .5250

1968. . . . . . . . . . . . 7,800 7.60 6.65 .95 5.8000 5.0875 .7125

1969. . . . . . . . . . . . 7,800 8.40 7.45 .95 6.3000 5.5875 .7125

1970. . . . . . . . . . . . 7,800 8.40 7.30 1.10 6.3000 5.4750 .8250

1971. . . . . . . . . . . . 7,800 9.20 8.10 1.10 6.9000 6.0750 .8250

1972. . . . . . . . . . . . 9,000 9.20 8.10 1.10 6.9000 6.0750 .8250

1973. . . . . . . . . . . . 10,800 9.70 8.60 1.10 7.0000 6.2050 .7950

1974. . . . . . . . . . . . 13,200 9.90 8.75 1.15 7.0000 6.1850 .8150

1975. . . . . . . . . . . . 14,100 9.90 8.75 1.15 7.0000 6.1850 .8150

1976. . . . . . . . . . . . 15,300 9.90 8.75 1.15 7.0000 6.1850 .8150

1977. . . . . . . . . . . . 16,500 9.90 8.75 1.15 7.0000 6.1850 .8150

1978. . . . . . . . . . . . 17,700 10.10 8.55 1.55 7.1000 6.0100 1.0900

1979. . . . . . . . . . . . 22,900 10.16 8.66 1.50 7.0500 6.0100 1.0400

1980. . . . . . . . . . . . 25,900 10.16 9.04 1.12 7.0500 6.2725 .7775

1981. . . . . . . . . . . . 29,700 10.70 9.40 1.30 8.0000 7.0250 .9750

1982. . . . . . . . . . . . 32,400 10.80 9.15 1.65 8.0500 6.8125 1.2375

1983. . . . . . . . . . . . 35,700 10.80 9.55 1.25 8.0500 7.1125 .9375

1984c . . . . . . . . . . . 37,800 11.40 10.40 1.00 11.4000 10.4000 1.0000

1985c . . . . . . . . . . . 39,600 11.40 10.40 1.00 11.4000 10.4000 1.0000

1986c . . . . . . . . . . . 42,000 11.40 10.40 1.00 11.4000 10.4000 1.0000

1987c . . . . . . . . . . . 43,800 11.40 10.40 1.00 11.4000 10.4000 1.0000

1988c . . . . . . . . . . . 45,000 12.12 11.06 1.06 12.1200 11.0600 1.0600

1989c . . . . . . . . . . . 48,000 12.12 11.06 1.06 12.1200 11.0600 1.0600

1990 . . . . . . . . . . . 51,300 12.40 11.20 1.20 12.4000 11.2000 1.2000

1991. . . . . . . . . . . . 53,400 12.40 11.20 1.20 12.4000 11.2000 1.2000

1992. . . . . . . . . . . . 55,500 12.40 11.20 1.20 12.4000 11.2000 1.2000

1993. . . . . . . . . . . . 57,600 12.40 11.20 1.20 12.4000 11.2000 1.2000

1994. . . . . . . . . . . . 60,600 12.40 10.52 1.88 12.4000 10.5200 1.8800

1995. . . . . . . . . . . . 61,200 12.40 10.52 1.88 12.4000 10.5200 1.8800

1996. . . . . . . . . . . . 62,700 12.40 10.52 1.88 12.4000 10.5200 1.8800

1997. . . . . . . . . . . . 65,400 12.40 10.70 1.70 12.4000 10.7000 1.7000

1998. . . . . . . . . . . . 68,400 12.40 10.70 1.70 12.4000 10.7000 1.7000

1999. . . . . . . . . . . . 72,600 12.40 10.70 1.70 12.4000 10.7000 1.7000

2000. . . . . . . . . . . . 76,200 12.40 10.60 1.80 12.4000 10.6000 1.8000

2001. . . . . . . . . . . . 80,400 12.40 10.60 1.80 12.4000 10.6000 1.8000

2002. . . . . . . . . . . . 84,900 12.40 10.60 1.80 12.4000 10.6000 1.8000

2003. . . . . . . . . . . . 87,000 12.40 10.60 1.80 12.4000 10.6000 1.8000

2004. . . . . . . . . . . . 87,900 12.40 10.60 1.80 12.4000 10.6000 1.8000

2005. . . . . . . . . . . . 90,000 12.40 10.60 1.80 12.4000 10.6000 1.8000
Assumptions and Methods

152

7. Income From Taxation of Benefits

Under current law, the OASI and DI Trust Funds are credited with income

tax revenue from the taxation of up to the first 50 percent of taxpayers’ OASI

and DI benefit payments. (The HI Trust Fund receives the remainder of the

income tax revenue from the taxation of up to 85 percent of taxpayers’ OASI

and DI benefit payments.) Benefits are partially subject to federal income tax

for beneficiaries with income (defined for this purpose as adjusted gross

income excluding Social Security benefits, plus half of their Social Security

benefits and all of their non-taxable interest income) in excess of specified

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . $94,200 12.40 10.60 1.80 12.4000 10.6000 1.8000

2007. . . . . . . . . . . . 97,500 12.40 10.60 1.80 12.4000 10.6000 1.8000

2008. . . . . . . . . . . . 102,000 12.40 10.60 1.80 12.4000 10.6000 1.8000

2009. . . . . . . . . . . . 106,800 12.40 10.60 1.80 12.4000 10.6000 1.8000

2010d . . . . . . . . . . . 106,800 12.40 10.60 1.80 12.4000 10.6000 1.8000

2011d . . . . . . . . . . . 106,800 10.40 8.89 1.51 10.4000 8.8900 1.5100

2012d . . . . . . . . . . . 110,100 10.40 8.89 1.51 10.4000 8.8900 1.5100

2013. . . . . . . . . . . . 113,700 12.40 10.60 1.80 12.4000 10.6000 1.8000

2014. . . . . . . . . . . . 117,000 12.40 10.60 1.80 12.4000 10.6000 1.8000

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . 118,500 12.40 10.60 1.80 12.4000 10.6000 1.8000

2016. . . . . . . . . . . . 118,500 12.40 10.03 2.37 12.4000 10.0300 2.3700

2017. . . . . . . . . . . . 127,200 12.40 10.03 2.37 12.4000 10.0300 2.3700

2018. . . . . . . . . . . . 128,400 12.40 10.03 2.37 12.4000 10.0300 2.3700

2019. . . . . . . . . . . . 132,900 12.40 10.60 1.80 12.4000 10.6000 1.8000

2020. . . . . . . . . . . . 137,700 12.40 10.60 1.80 12.4000 10.6000 1.8000

2021. . . . . . . . . . . . 142,800 12.40 10.60 1.80 12.4000 10.6000 1.8000

2022. . . . . . . . . . . . 147,000 12.40 10.60 1.80 12.4000 10.6000 1.8000

2023. . . . . . . . . . . . 160,200 12.40 10.60 1.80 12.4000 10.6000 1.8000

2024 and later . . . . e 12.40 10.60 1.80 12.4000 10.6000 1.8000

a Except as noted below, the combined employee/employer rate is divided equally between employees and

employers.

b Beginning in 1990, self-employed persons receive a deduction, for purposes of computing their net earnings, equal to half of the combined OASDI and HI contributions that would be payable without regard to the

contribution and benefit base. The OASDI contribution rate then applies to net earnings after this deduction,

but subject to the OASDI base.

c In 1984 only, employees received an immediate credit of 0.3 percent of taxable wages against their OASDI

payroll tax contributions. The self-employed received similar credits of 2.7 percent, 2.3 percent, and

2.0 percent against their combined OASDI and Hospital Insurance (HI) contributions on net earnings from

self-employment in 1984, 1985, and 1986-89, respectively. The General Fund of the Treasury reimbursed the

trust funds for these credits.

d Public Law 111-147 exempted most employers from paying the employer share of OASDI payroll tax on

wages paid during the period March 19, 2010 through December 31, 2010 to certain qualified individuals

hired after February 3, 2010. Public Law 111-312 reduced the OASDI payroll tax rate for 2011 by

2 percentage points for employees and for self-employed workers. Public Law 112-96 extended the 2011

rate reduction through 2012. These laws require that the General Fund of the Treasury reimburse the OASI

and DI Trust Funds for these temporary reductions in 2010 through 2012 payroll tax revenue, in order to

“replicate to the extent possible” revenue that would have been received if the combined employee/employer

payroll tax rates had remained at 12.4 percent for OASDI (10.6 percent for OASI and 1.8 percent for DI).

e Subject to automatic adjustment based on increases in average wages.

Table V.C6.—Contribution and Benefit Base and Payroll Tax Contribution Rates (Cont.)

Calendar years

Contribution

and benefit 

base

Payroll tax contribution rates (percent)

Employees and employers, 

combineda Self-employedb

OASDI OASI DI OASDI OASI DI
153

Program Assumptions and Methods

threshold amounts. The threshold amounts are $25,000 for single filers,

$32,000 for joint filers, and $0 for those married individuals filing separately.

For the short-range period, the Office of the Chief Actuary estimates the

income to the OASI and DI Trust Funds from taxation of benefits by applying the following two factors (projected by the Office of Tax Analysis,

Department of the Treasury) to total OASI and DI scheduled benefits: (1) the

percentage of taxpayers’ scheduled benefits (limited to 50 percent) that is

taxable and (2) the average marginal tax rate applicable to those benefits. Up

to 85 percent of benefits may be subject to federal income tax, with any tax

on more than 50 percent of a taxpayer’s benefits credited to the Medicare

Hospital Insurance Trust Fund.

For the long-range period, the office estimates the income to the trust funds

from taxation of benefits by applying projected ratios of taxation of OASI

and DI benefits to total OASI and DI scheduled benefits. These tax ratios

rely on estimates from the Office of Tax Analysis in the Department of the

Treasury. The Office of the Chief Actuary’s estimates reflect the following

assumptions: (1) The income thresholds used for benefit taxation are specified in the Internal Revenue Code to be constant in the future, and have never

been changed, while income and benefit levels continue to rise. Accordingly,

projected ratios of income from taxation of benefits to the amount of benefits

increase gradually. (2) A permanent level shift upward in the ratios is projected for 2026 and beyond due to the expiration of the personal income tax

provisions in Public Law 115-97, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. (3)

Because indexation of income tax brackets is not specified in the Social

Security Act, and because periodic changes have been made in the past to

avoid indefinite compression of the income tax brackets relative to income

levels (bracket creep), the Trustees assume that such periodic changes will

occur in the future. As a result, after the tenth year of the projection period,

income tax brackets are assumed to rise with average wages, rather than with

the C-CPI-U as specified under current law. Thus, the income tax brackets

are projected to roughly maintain their levels relative to the income distribution. 

8. Average Benefits

Projections of average benefits for each benefit type reflect recent historical

averages, projected average primary insurance amounts (PIAs), and projected ratios of average benefits to average PIAs. Calculations of average

PIAs are based on projected distributions of beneficiaries by duration from

year of initial entitlement, average PIAs at initial entitlement, and increases

in PIAs after initial entitlement. Projected increases in average PIAs after ini-
Assumptions and Methods

154

tial entitlement depend on automatic benefit increases, recomputations to

reflect additional covered earnings, and differences in mortality by level of

lifetime earnings. Calculations of future average PIAs at initial entitlement

are based on projected earnings histories, which in turn reflect a combination

of the actual earnings histories associated with a sample of 2019 initial entitlements and more recent actual earnings levels by age and sex for covered

workers.

For retired-worker, aged-spouse, and aged-widow(er) benefits, the percentage of the PIA that is payable depends on the age at initial entitlement to

benefits. Projected ratios of average benefits to average PIAs for these types

of benefits are based on projections of age distributions at initial entitlement.

9. Scheduled Benefits

For each type of benefit, scheduled benefits are the product of the number of

beneficiaries and the corresponding average monthly benefit. The shortrange model calculates scheduled benefits on a quarterly basis. The longrange model calculates all scheduled benefits on an annual basis, using the

number of beneficiaries at the beginning and end of the year. Adjustments to

these annual scheduled benefits include retroactive payments to newly

awarded beneficiaries and other amounts not reflected in the regular monthly

scheduled benefits.

Scheduled lump-sum death benefits are estimated as the product of: (1) the

number of lump-sum death payments projected on the basis of the assumed

death rates, the projected fully insured population, and the estimated percentage of the fully insured population that will qualify for lump-sum death payments; and (2) the amount of the lump-sum death payment, which is $255

(unindexed since 1973).

10.Illustrative Scheduled Benefit Amounts

Table V.C7 shows, under the intermediate assumptions, future scheduled

benefit amounts payable upon retirement at the normal retirement age and at

age 65, for various hypothetical workers attaining age 65 in 2023 and subsequent years. The illustrative benefit amounts in table V.C7 are presented in

CPI-indexed 2023 dollars—that is, adjusted to 2023 levels by the CPI indexing series shown in table VI.G6. Table V.C7 also shows each benefit amount

as a percentage of the average of each hypothetical worker’s highest 35 years
155

Program Assumptions and Methods

of Social Security covered earnings, indexed by national average wage

growth to the year prior to initial entitlement to retired worker benefits.1

The normal retirement age was 65 for individuals who reached age 62 before

2000. It increased to age 66 during the period 2000 through 2005, at a rate of

2 months per year as workers attained age 62. Under current law, the normal

retirement age increases to age 67 during the period 2017 through 2022, also

by 2 months per year as workers attain age 62. The illustrative benefit

amounts shown in table V.C7 for retirees at age 65 are lower than the

amounts shown for retirees at normal retirement age because monthly benefits taken before normal retirement age are reduced to reflect the expected

additional years benefits will be collected. For example, those who start collecting benefits at age 65 in 2027 and survive to age 67 will receive benefits

for two more years than if they had instead waited to start collecting benefits

at normal retirement age in 2029.

Table V.C7 shows five different pre-retirement earnings patterns. Four of

these patterns assume the earnings history of workers with scaled-earnings

patterns2 and reflect very low, low, medium, and high career-average levels

of pre-retirement earnings starting at age 21. The fifth pattern assumes the

earnings history of a steady maximum earner starting at age 22. The four

scaled-earnings patterns derive from earnings experienced by insured workers during calendar years 2000 through 2019. These earnings levels differ by

age. The career-average level of earnings for each scaled case targets a percent of the AWI. 

For the scaled medium earner, the career-average earnings level is about

equal to the AWI (estimated to be $66,147 for 2023). For the scaled very

low, low, and high earners, the career-average earnings level, wage-indexed

to the year before starting benefits, is about 25 percent, 45 percent, and

160 percent of the AWI, respectively (estimated to be $16,537, $29,766, and

$105,835, respectively, for 2023). The steady maximum earner has earnings

at or above the contribution and benefit base ($160,200 for 2023) for each

year starting at age 22 through the year prior to retirement.

 1 Actuarial Note 2023.9 has additional detail on illustrative benefits for hypothetical workers. See 

www.ssa.gov/OACT/NOTES/ran9/.

 2 Actuarial Note 2023.3 has more details on scaled-earnings patterns. See 

www.ssa.gov/OACT/NOTES/ran3/.
Assumptions and Methods

156

Table V.C7.—Annual Scheduled Benefit Amountsa for Retired Workers 

With Various Pre-Retirement Earnings Patterns 

Based on Intermediate Assumptions, Calendar Years 2023-2100

 Retirement at normal retirement age Retirement at age 65

Year attain age 65b Age atretirement

CPI-indexed

2023 dollarsc

Percent of

35-year

average

earnings

Age at

retirement

CPI-indexed

2023 dollarsc

Percent of

35-year

average

earnings

Scaled very low earnings:d

2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . 66:8 $13,041 78.9 65:0 $11,311 71.3

2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 12,790 75.8 65:0 11,063 67.7

2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 13,581 74.3 65:0 11,758 66.4

2035 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 14,707 75.6 65:0 12,730 67.1

2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 15,703 76.0 65:0 13,601 67.4

2045 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 16,686 76.3 65:0 14,454 67.6

2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 17,676 76.5 65:0 15,306 67.7

2055 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 18,675 76.5 65:0 16,169 67.7

2060 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 19,730 76.5 65:0 17,088 67.7

2065 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 20,852 76.4 65:0 18,060 67.7

2070 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 22,067 76.4 65:0 19,109 67.7

2075 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 23,356 76.4 65:0 20,226 67.7

2080 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 24,713 76.4 65:0 21,401 67.7

2085 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 26,150 76.4 65:0 22,646 67.7

2090 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 27,668 76.4 65:0 23,959 67.7

2095 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 29,262 76.5 65:0 25,341 67.7

2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 30,942 76.4 65:0 26,795 67.7

Scaled low earnings:e

2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . 66:8 17,082 57.4 65:0 14,824 51.9

2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 16,787 55.2 65:0 14,499 49.3

2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 17,791 54.1 65:0 15,390 48.3

2035 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 19,265 55.0 65:0 16,677 48.8

2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 20,570 55.3 65:0 17,806 49.0

2045 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 21,858 55.5 65:0 18,922 49.2

2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 23,139 55.7 65:0 20,035 49.3

2055 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 24,455 55.7 65:0 21,173 49.3

2060 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 25,835 55.6 65:0 22,366 49.3

2065 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 27,307 55.6 65:0 23,639 49.2

2070 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 28,896 55.6 65:0 25,014 49.2

2075 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 30,583 55.6 65:0 26,475 49.2

2080 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 32,362 55.6 65:0 28,017 49.2

2085 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 34,244 55.6 65:0 29,645 49.2

2090 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 36,229 55.6 65:0 31,363 49.2

2095 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 38,318 55.6 65:0 33,173 49.2

2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 40,515 55.6 65:0 35,075 49.2

Scaled medium earnings:f

2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . 66:8 28,204 42.6 65:0 24,463 38.5

2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 27,753 41.1 65:0 23,947 36.6

2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 29,374 40.2 65:0 25,399 35.8

2035 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 31,793 40.9 65:0 27,501 36.2

2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 33,939 41.1 65:0 29,361 36.4

2045 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 36,064 41.2 65:0 31,209 36.5

2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 38,183 41.3 65:0 33,043 36.6

2055 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 40,342 41.3 65:0 34,914 36.6

2060 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 42,626 41.3 65:0 36,887 36.6

2065 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 45,054 41.3 65:0 38,989 36.5

2070 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 47,676 41.2 65:0 41,259 36.5

2075 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 50,459 41.3 65:0 43,664 36.5

2080 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 53,390 41.3 65:0 46,205 36.5

2085 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 56,496 41.3 65:0 48,890 36.5

2090 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 59,770 41.3 65:0 51,726 36.5

2095 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 63,215 41.3 65:0 54,708 36.5

2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 66,843 41.3 65:0 57,845 36.5
157

Program Assumptions and Methods

Scaled high earnings:g

2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . 66:8 $37,269 35.2 65:0 $32,345 31.9

2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 36,579 33.9 65:0 31,621 30.2

2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 38,822 33.2 65:0 33,598 29.6

2035 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 42,037 33.8 65:0 36,391 30.0

2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 44,882 33.9 65:0 38,861 30.1

2045 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 47,693 34.1 65:0 41,301 30.2

2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 50,503 34.2 65:0 43,734 30.2

2055 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 53,360 34.2 65:0 46,209 30.2

2060 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 56,375 34.1 65:0 48,821 30.2

2065 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 59,587 34.1 65:0 51,598 30.2

2070 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 63,052 34.1 65:0 54,601 30.2

2075 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 66,732 34.1 65:0 57,785 30.2

2080 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 70,612 34.1 65:0 61,146 30.2

2085 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 74,718 34.1 65:0 64,702 30.2

2090 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 79,048 34.1 65:0 68,452 30.2

2095 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 83,607 34.1 65:0 72,400 30.2

2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 88,402 34.1 65:0 76,553 30.2

Steady maximum earnings:h

2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . 66:8 45,587 28.0 65:0 39,456 25.3

2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 45,010 27.0 65:0 38,640 24.0

2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 47,766 26.4 65:0 41,085 23.5

2035 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 51,747 26.8 65:0 44,540 23.7

2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 55,205 27.0 65:0 47,536 23.8

2045 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 58,704 27.1 65:0 50,551 23.9

2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 62,112 27.2 65:0 53,489 23.9

2055 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 65,531 27.2 65:0 56,430 24.0

2060 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 69,185 27.2 65:0 59,578 24.0

2065 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 73,106 27.2 65:0 62,957 24.0

2070 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 77,373 27.2 65:0 66,643 23.9

2075 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 81,897 27.2 65:0 70,541 23.9

2080 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 86,659 27.2 65:0 74,644 23.9

2085 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 91,701 27.2 65:0 78,988 23.9

2090 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 97,014 27.2 65:0 83,564 24.0

2095 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 102,606 27.2 65:0 88,383 24.0

2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . 67:0 108,487 27.2 65:0 93,448 24.0

a Annual amounts are the total for the 12-month period starting with the month of retirement.

b Attains age 65 on January 1 of the year.

c CPI-indexed dollar adjustment uses the adjusted CPI indexing series shown in table VI.G6.

d Career average earnings at about 25 percent of the national Average Wage Index (AWI).

e Career average earnings at about 45 percent of the AWI.

f Career average earnings at about 100 percent of the AWI.

g Career average earnings at about 160 percent of the AWI.

h Earnings for each year at or above the contribution and benefit base.

Table V.C7.—Annual Scheduled Benefit Amountsa for Retired Workers 

With Various Pre-Retirement Earnings Patterns 

Based on Intermediate Assumptions, Calendar Years 2023-2100 (Cont.)

 Retirement at normal retirement age Retirement at age 65

Year attain age 65b Age atretirement

CPI-indexed

2023 dollarsc

Percent of

35-year

average

earnings

Age at

retirement

CPI-indexed

2023 dollarsc

Percent of

35-year

average

earnings
Assumptions and Methods

158

11. Administrative Expenses

The projection of administrative expenses through the short-range period is

based on historical experience and the projected growth in average wages.

The Office of Budget of the Social Security Administration provides estimates for the first several years of the projection. For years after the shortrange period, projected administrative expenses reflect increases in the number of beneficiaries in current-payment status, and increases in the average

wage. However, the increases in average wage are partially offset by

assumed administrative productivity gains.

12.Railroad Retirement Financial Interchange

Railroad workers are covered under a separate multi-tiered benefit plan, with

a first tier of coverage similar to OASDI coverage. An annual financial interchange between the Railroad Retirement fund and the OASI and DI Trust

Funds is made to resolve the difference between: (1) the amount of OASDI

benefits that would be paid to railroad workers and their families if railroad

employment had been covered under the OASDI program, plus administrative expenses associated with these benefits; and (2) the amount of OASDI

payroll tax and income tax that would be received with allowances for interest from railroad workers.

The Office of the Chief Actuary’s projection of future amounts for the financial interchange with the Railroad Retirement fund reflects trends similar to

those used in estimating the cost of OASDI benefits. The annual short-range

net cost for the OASI and DI Trust Funds is about $6 to $7 billion and the

long-range summarized net cost for the OASI and DI Trust Funds is

0.05 percent of taxable payroll.
159

History of Trust Fund Operations

VI. APPENDICES

A. HISTORY OF OASI AND DI TRUST FUND OPERATIONS

The Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund was established on January 1, 1940 as a separate account in the United States Treasury.

The Federal Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund, another separate account

in the United States Treasury, was established on August 1, 1956. These

funds conduct the financial operations of the OASI and DI programs. The

Board of Trustees is responsible for overseeing the financial operations of

these funds. The following paragraphs describe the various components of

trust fund income and cost. Following this description, tables VI.A1 and

VI.A2 present the historical operations of the separate trust funds since their

inception, and table VI.A3 presents the operations of the hypothetical combined trust funds1 during the period when they have co-existed.

The primary income of these two funds comes from appropriations under

permanent authority on the basis of payroll tax contributions. Federal law

requires that all employees who work in OASDI covered employment, and

their employers, make payroll tax contributions on their wages up to a specified annual maximum amount (the contribution and benefit base). Employees and their employers must also make payroll tax contributions on monthly

cash tips if such tips are at least $20. Self-employed persons must make payroll tax contributions on their covered net earnings from self-employment

subject to the annual contribution and benefit base. The Federal Government

pays amounts equivalent to the combined employer and employee contributions that would be paid on deemed wage credits attributable to military service performed between 1957 and 2001, if such wage credits were covered

wages. Treasury initially deposits payroll tax contributions to the trust funds

each day on an estimated basis. Subsequently, Treasury makes adjustments

based on the certified amount of wages and self-employment earnings in the

records of the Social Security Administration.

Income also includes various reimbursements from the General Fund of the

Treasury, such as: (1) the cost of noncontributory wage credits for military

service before 1957, and periodic adjustments to previous determinations of

this cost; (2) the cost in 1971 through 1982 of deemed wage credits for military service performed after 1956; (3) the cost of benefits to certain uninsured persons who attained age 72 before 1968; (4) the cost of payroll tax

credits provided to employees in 1984 and self-employed persons in 1984

through 1989 by Public Law 98-21; (5) the cost in 2009 through 2017 of

excluding certain self-employment earnings from SECA taxes under Public

 1 The OASI and DI Trust Funds are distinct legal entities which operate independently. To illustrate the

actuarial status of the program as a whole, the fund operations are often combined on a hypothetical basis.
Appendices

160

Law 110-246; and (6) payroll tax revenue forgone under the provisions of

Public Laws 111-147, 111-312, 112-78, and 112-96. This also includes a portion of proceeds of repayments of loans authorized by Public Law 116-136.

Beginning in 1984, Federal law subjected up to 50 percent of an individual’s

or couple’s OASDI benefits to Federal income taxation under certain circumstances. Effective for taxable years beginning after 1993, the law increased

the maximum percentage from 50 percent to 85 percent. Treasury credits the

proceeds from this taxation of up to 50 percent of benefits to the OASI and

DI Trust Funds in advance, on an estimated basis, at the beginning of each

calendar quarter, with no reimbursement to the General Fund for interest

costs attributable to the advance transfers.1 Treasury makes subsequent

adjustments based on the actual amounts shown on annual income tax

records. Each of the OASI and DI Trust Funds receives the income taxes

paid on the benefits from that trust fund.2

Another source of income to the trust funds is interest received on investments held by the trust funds. On a daily basis, Treasury invests trust fund

income in interest-bearing obligations of the U.S. Government. These investments include the special public-debt obligations described in the next paragraph. The Social Security Act also authorizes the trust funds to hold

obligations guaranteed as to both principal and interest by the United States.

The act therefore permits the trust funds to hold certain Federally sponsored

agency obligations and marketable obligations.3 The trust funds may acquire

any of these obligations on original issue at the issue price or by purchase of

outstanding obligations at their market price.

The Social Security Act authorizes the issuance of special public-debt obligations for purchase exclusively by the trust funds. The act provides that the

interest rate for special obligations newly issued in any month is the average

market yield, as of the last business day of the prior month, on all of the outstanding marketable U.S. obligations that are due or callable more than

4 years in the future. This rate is rounded to the nearest one-eighth of one

percent. Beginning January 1999, in calculating the average market yield

rate for this purpose, the Treasury incorporates the yield to the call date when

a callable bond’s market price is above par.

Although the Social Security Act does not authorize the purchase or sale of

special issue securities in the open market, Treasury redeems special issue

 1 The HI Trust Fund receives the additional tax revenue resulting from the increase to 85 percent.

 2 A special provision applies to benefits paid to nonresident aliens. Effective for taxable years beginning

after 1994, Public Law 103-465 subjects benefits to a flat-rate tax, usually 25.5 percent, before they are

paid. Therefore, this tax remains in the trust funds. From 1984 to 1994, the flat-rate tax was usually

15 percent.

 3 The Social Security Act requires the trust funds to acquire special-issue obligations unless the Managing

Trustee determines that the purchase of marketable obligations is in the public interest. The purchase of marketable obligations has been quite limited and has not occurred since 1980.
161

History of Trust Fund Operations

securities prior to maturity at par value when needed to meet current operating expenses. As a result, changes in market yield rates after issuance of special issue securities do not cause fluctuations in the value of these securities.

As is true for marketable Treasury securities held by the public, the full faith

and credit of the U.S. Government backs all of the investments held by the

trust funds.

Annual cost for the OASI and DI Trust Funds primarily consists of:

(1) OASDI benefit payments1, net of any reimbursements from the General

Fund of the Treasury for unnegotiated benefit checks; and (2) expenses

incurred by the Social Security Administration and the Department of the

Treasury in administering the OASDI program and the provisions of the

Internal Revenue Code relating to the collection of contributions. Such

administrative expenses include, among other items, the cost of (1) payroll;

(2) construction, rental, lease, or purchase of office buildings and related

facilities for the Social Security Administration; and (3) information technology systems. The Social Security Act prohibits payments from the OASI and

DI Trust Funds for any purpose not related to the payment of benefits or

administrative costs for the OASDI program. 

Annual cost also includes: (1) the costs of vocational rehabilitation services

furnished to disabled persons receiving cash benefits because of their disabilities, where such services contributed to their successful rehabilitation; and

(2) net costs of the provisions of the Railroad Retirement Act that provide for

a system of coordination and financial interchange between the Railroad

Retirement program and the Social Security program. Under the financial

interchange provisions, the Railroad Retirement program’s Social Security

Equivalent Benefit Account and the trust funds interchange amounts on an

annual basis so that each trust fund is in the same position it would have been

had railroad employment always been covered under Social Security.

The statements of the operations of the trust funds in this report do not

include the net worth of facilities and other fixed capital assets because the

value of fixed capital assets is not available in the form of a financial asset

redeemable for the payment of benefits or administrative costs. As a result of

this unavailability, the actuarial status of the trust funds does not take these

assets into account.

 1 Periodically, benefit payments which were scheduled to be paid on January 3 were actually paid on

December 31 of the preceding year as required by the statutory provision included in the 1977 Social Security Amendments for early delivery of benefit payments when the normal payment delivery date is a Saturday, Sunday, or legal public holiday. Such advance payments have occurred about every 7 years, first for

benefits scheduled for January 3, 1982. The most recent such accelerated payment affected benefits scheduled to be paid on January 3, 2021. For comparability with the values for historical years and the projections

in this report, all trust fund operations and asset reserves reflect the 12 months of benefits scheduled for payment each year without regard to the accelerated payments described above.
Appendices

162

Table VI.A1.— Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Calendar Years 1937-2022

[Dollar amounts in billions]

Calendar

year

Income Cost Asset Reservesa Trust

fund

ratio at

start of

year Total b

Net payroll tax

contributionsc

GF

reimbursementsdTaxation of

benefitsc Netintereste Totala

Benefit

paymentsaf

Administrative

costs

RRB

interchange

Net

increase

during

year

Amount

at end

of year

1937g. . $0.8 $0.8 — — hhh — — $0.8 $0.8 —

1938g. . .4 .4 — — hhh — — .4 1.1 7,660

1939g. . .6 .6 — — hhh — — .6 1.7 8,086

1940 . . .4 .3 — — h $0.1 h h — .3 2.0 2,781

1941 . . .8 .8 — — $0.1 .1 $0.1 h — .7 2.8 1,782

1942 . . 1.1 1.0 — — .1 .2 .1 h — .9 3.7 1,737

1943 . . 1.3 1.2 — — .1 .2 .2 h — 1.1 4.8 1,891

1944 . . 1.4 1.3 — — .1 .2 .2 h — 1.2 6.0 2,025

1945 . . 1.4 1.3 — — .1 .3 .3 h — 1.1 7.1 1,975

1946 . . 1.4 1.3 — — .2 .4 .4 h — 1.0 8.1 1,704

1947 . . 1.7 1.6 h — .2 .5 .5 h — 1.2 9.4 1,592

1948 . . 2.0 1.7 h — .3 .6 .6 $0.1 — 1.4 10.7 1,542

1949 . . 1.8 1.7 h — .1 .7 .7 .1 — 1.1 11.8 1,487

1950 . . 2.9 2.7 h — .3 1.0 1.0 .1 — 1.9 13.7 1,156

1951 . . 3.8 3.4 h — .4 2.0 1.9 .1 — 1.8 15.5 698

1952 . . 4.2 3.8 — — .4 2.3 2.2 .1 — 1.9 17.4 681

1953 . . 4.4 3.9 — — .4 3.1 3.0 .1 — 1.3 18.7 564

1954 . . 5.6 5.2 — — .4 3.7 3.7 .1 h 1.9 20.6 500

1955 . . 6.2 5.7 — — .5 5.1 5.0 .1 h 1.1 21.7 405

1956 . . 6.7 6.2 — — .5 5.8 5.7 .1 h .9 22.5 371

1957 . . 7.4 6.8 — — .6 7.5 7.3 .2 h -.1 22.4 300

1958 . . 8.1 7.6 — — .6 8.6 8.3 .2 $0.1 -.5 21.9 259

1959 . . 8.6 8.1 — — .5 10.3 9.8 .2 .3 -1.7 20.1 212

1960 . . 11.4 10.9 — — .5 11.2 10.7 .2 .3 .2 20.3 180

1961 . . 11.8 11.3 — — .5 12.4 11.9 .2 .3 -.6 19.7 163

1962 . . 12.6 12.1 — — .5 14.0 13.4 .3 .4 -1.4 18.3 141

1963 . . 15.1 14.5 — — .5 14.9 14.2 .3 .4 .1 18.5 123

1964 . . 16.3 15.7 — — .6 15.6 14.9 .3 .4 .6 19.1 118

1965 . . 16.6 16.0 — — .6 17.5 16.7 .3 .4 -.9 18.2 109

1966 . . 21.3 20.6 $0.1 — .6 19.0 18.3 .3 .4 2.3 20.6 96

1967 . . 24.0 23.1 .1 — .8 20.4 19.5 .4 .5 3.7 24.2 101

1968 . . 25.0 23.7 .4 — .9 23.6 22.6 .5 .4 1.5 25.7 103

1969 . . 29.6 27.9 .4 — 1.2 25.2 24.2 .5 .5 4.4 30.1 102

1970 . . 32.2 30.3 .4 — 1.5 29.8 28.8 .5 .6 2.4 32.5 101

1971 . . 35.9 33.7 .5 — 1.7 34.5 33.4 .5 .6 1.3 33.8 94

1972 . . 40.1 37.8 .5 — 1.8 38.5 37.1 .7 .7 1.5 35.3 88

1973 . . 48.3 46.0 .4 — 1.9 47.2 45.7 .6 .8 1.2 36.5 75

1974 . . 54.7 52.1 .4 — 2.2 53.4 51.6 .9 .9 1.3 37.8 68

1975 . . 59.6 56.8 .4 — 2.4 60.4 58.5 .9 1.0 -.8 37.0 63

1976 . . 66.3 63.4 .6 — 2.3 67.9 65.7 1.0 1.2 -1.6 35.4 54

1977 . . 72.4 69.6 .6 — 2.2 75.3 73.1 1.0 1.2 -2.9 32.5 47

1978 . . 78.1 75.5 .6 — 2.0 83.1 80.4 1.1 1.6 -5.0 27.5 39

1979 . . 90.3 87.9 .6 — 1.8 93.1 90.6 1.1 1.4 -2.9 24.7 30

1980 . . 105.8 103.5 .5 — 1.8 107.7 105.1 1.2 1.4 -1.8 22.8 23

1981 . . 125.4 122.6 .7 — 2.1 126.7 123.8 1.3 1.6 -1.3 21.5 18

1982 . . 125.2 123.7 .7 — .8 142.1 138.8 1.5 1.8 i

 .6 22.1 15

1983 . . 150.6 138.3 5.5 — 6.7 153.0 149.2 1.5 2.3 -2.4 19.7 14

1984 . . 169.3 159.5 4.7 $2.8 2.3 161.9 157.8 1.6 2.4 7.4 27.1 j

20

1985 . . 184.2 175.1 4.0 3.2 1.9 171.2 167.2 1.6 2.3 i8.7 35.8 j

24

1986 . . 197.4 189.1 1.8 3.4 3.1 181.0 176.8 1.6 2.6 i3.2 39.1 j

28

1987 . . 210.7 201.1 1.7 3.3 4.7 187.7 183.6 1.5 2.6 23.1 62.1 j

30

1988 . . 240.8 227.7 2.1 3.4 7.6 200.0 195.5 1.8 2.8 40.7 102.9 j

41

1989 . . 264.7 248.1 2.1 2.4 12.0 212.5 208.0 1.7 2.8 52.2 155.1 j

59
163

History of Trust Fund Operations

1990 . . $286.7 $266.1 -$0.7 $4.8 $16.4 $227.5 $223.0 $1.6 $3.0 $59.1 $214.2 j

78

1991 . . 299.3 272.5 .1 5.9 20.8 245.6 240.5 1.8 3.4 53.7 267.8 87

1992 . . 311.2 281.1 -.1 5.9 24.3 259.9 254.9 1.8 3.1 51.3 319.1 103

1993 . . 323.3 290.9 h 5.3 27.0 273.1 267.8 2.0 3.4 50.2 369.3 117

1994 . . 328.3 293.3 h 5.0 29.9 284.1 279.1 1.6 3.4 44.1 413.5 130

1995 . . 342.8 304.7 -.2 5.5 32.8 297.8 291.6 2.1 4.1 45.0 458.5 139

1996 . . 363.7 321.6 h 6.5 35.7 308.2 302.9 1.8 3.6 55.5 514.0 149

1997 . . 397.2 349.9 h 7.4 39.8 322.1 316.3 2.1 3.7 75.1 589.1 160

1998 . . 424.8 371.2 h 9.1 44.5 332.3 326.8 1.9 3.7 92.5 681.6 177

1999 . . 457.0 396.4 h 10.9 49.8 339.9 334.4 1.8 3.7 117.2 798.8 201

2000 . . 490.5 421.4 h 11.6 57.5 358.3 352.7 2.1 3.5 132.2 931.0 223

2001 . . 518.1 441.5 h 11.9 64.7 377.5 372.3 2.0 3.3 140.6 1,071.5 247

2002 . . 539.7 455.2 .4 12.9 71.2 393.7 388.1 2.1 3.5 146.0 1,217.5 272

2003 . . 543.8 456.1 h 12.5 75.2 406.0 399.8 2.6 3.6 137.8 1,355.3 300

2004 . . 566.3 472.8 h 14.6 79.0 421.0 415.0 2.4 3.6 145.3 1,500.6 322

2005 . . 604.3 506.9 -.3 13.8 84.0 441.9 435.4 3.0 3.6 162.4 1,663.0 340

2006 . . 642.2 534.8 h 15.6 91.8 461.0 454.5 3.0 3.5 181.3 1,844.3 361

2007 . . 675.0 560.9 h 17.2 97.0 495.7 489.1 3.1 3.6 179.3 2,023.6 372

2008 . . 695.5 574.6 h 15.6 105.3 516.2 509.3 3.2 3.6 179.3 2,202.9 392

2009 . . 698.2 570.4 h 19.9 107.9 564.3 557.2 3.4 3.7 133.9 2,336.8 390

2010 . . 677.1 544.8 2.0 22.1 108.2 584.9 577.4 3.5 3.9 92.2 2,429.0 400

2011 . . 698.8 482.4 87.8 22.2 106.5 603.8 596.2 3.5 4.1 95.0 2,524.1 402

2012 . . 731.1 503.9 97.7 26.7 102.8 645.5 637.9 3.4 4.1 85.6 2,609.7 391

2013 . . 743.8 620.8 4.2 20.7 98.1 679.5 672.1 3.4 3.9 64.3 2,674.0 384

2014 . . 769.4 646.2 .4 28.0 94.8 714.2 706.8 3.1 4.3 55.2 2,729.2 374

2015 . . 801.6 679.5 .3 30.6 91.2 750.5 742.9 3.4 4.3 51.0 2,780.3 364

2016 . . 797.5 678.8 .1 31.6 87.0 776.4 768.6 3.5 4.3 21.1 2,801.3 358

2017 . . 825.6 706.5 h 35.9 83.2 806.7 798.7 3.7 4.3 19.0 2,820.3 347

2018 . . 831.0 715.9 h 34.5 80.7 853.5 844.9 3.8 4.8 -22.4 2,797.9 330

2019 . . 917.9 805.1 h 34.9 77.9 911.4 902.8 3.7 4.9 6.5 2,804.3 307

Table VI.A1.— Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Calendar Years 1937-2022 (Cont.)

[Dollar amounts in billions]

Calendar

year

Income Cost Asset Reservesa Trust

fund

ratio at

start of

year Total b

Net payroll tax

contributionsc

GF

reimbursementsdTaxation of

benefitsc Netintereste Totala

Benefit

paymentsaf

Administrative

costs

RRB

interchange

Net

increase

during

year

Amount

at end

of year
Appendices

164

2020 . . $968.3 $856.0 h $39.0 $73.3 $961.0 $952.4 $3.7 $4.8 $7.4 $2,811.7 292

2021 . . 942.9 838.2 h 37.2 67.5 1,001.9 993.1 4.0 4.8 -59.1 2,752.6 281

2022 . . 1,056.7 945.9 0.2 47.1 63.5 1,097.5 1,088.1 4.0 5.3 -40.7 2,711.9 251

a Beginning in 1979, benefit payments scheduled to be paid on January 3 of a given year were paid on December 31

of the preceding year as required by the statutory provision included in the 1977 Social Security Amendments for

early delivery of benefit payments when the normal payment delivery date is a Saturday, Sunday, or legal public

holiday. Such advance payments have occurred about every 7 years, first for benefits scheduled for January 3, 1982.

For comparability with other historical years and the projections in this report, all trust fund operations and asset

reserves reflect the 12 months of benefits scheduled for payment in each year without regard to the accelerated payments described above.

b Represents asset reserves at the beginning of a year as a percentage of cost during the year. The table shows no

ratio for 1937 because no reserves existed at the beginning of the year.

c Includes adjustments for prior calendar years.

d Includes net reimbursements from the General Fund of the Treasury to the OASI Trust Fund for: (1) the cost of

noncontributory wage credits for military service before 1957; (2) the cost in 1971-82 of deemed wage credits for

military service performed after 1956; (3) the cost of benefits to certain uninsured persons who attained age 72

before 1968; (4) the cost of payroll tax credits provided to employees in 1984 and self-employed persons in 1984-

89 by Public Law 98-21; (5) the cost in 2009-17 of excluding certain self-employment earnings from SECA taxes

under Public Law 110-246; and (6) payroll tax revenue forgone under the provisions of Public Laws 111-147, 111-

312, 112-78, and 112-96. Also includes transfers of a portion of proceeds from repayments of loans authorized

under Public Law 116-136.

e Net interest includes net profits or losses on marketable investments. Beginning in 1967, the trust fund pays

administrative expenses on an estimated basis, with a final adjustment including interest made in the following fiscal year. Net interest includes the amounts of these interest adjustments. The 1970 report describes the accounting

for administrative expenses for years prior to 1967. Beginning in October 1973, figures include relatively small

amounts of gifts to the fund. Net interest for 1983-86 reflects payments for interest on amounts owed under the

interfund borrowing provisions. During 1983-90, net interest reflects interest reimbursements paid from the trust

fund to the General Fund on advance tax transfers.

f Beginning in 1966, includes payments for vocational rehabilitation services furnished to disabled persons receiving benefits because of their disabilities. Beginning in 1983, net benefit amounts include reimbursements paid from

the General Fund to the trust fund for unnegotiated benefit checks. Excluding the portion attributable to vocational

rehabilitation services and unnegotiated benefit checks, amounts are the same as benefits scheduled under law at

that time for all historical years.

g Operations prior to 1940 are for the Old-Age Reserve Account established by the original Social Security Act.

The 1939 Amendments transferred the asset reserves of the Account to the OASI Trust Fund effective January 1,

1940.

h Between -$50 million and $50 million.

i Reflects interfund borrowing of $17.5 billion by the OASI Trust Fund from the DI and HI Trust Funds in 1982 and

the subsequent repayment of those loans in 1985 ($4.4 billion) and 1986 ($13.2 billion).

j Reserves used for the trust fund ratio calculation include January advance tax transfers.

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Table VI.A1.— Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Calendar Years 1937-2022 (Cont.)

[Dollar amounts in billions]

Calendar

year

Income Cost Asset Reservesa Trust

fund

ratio at

start of

year Total b

Net payroll tax

contributionsc

GF

reimbursementsdTaxation of

benefitsc Netintereste Totala

Benefit

paymentsaf

Administrative

costs

RRB

interchange

Net

increase

during

year

Amount

at end

of year
165

History of Trust Fund Operations

Table VI.A2.— Operations of the DI Trust Fund, Calendar Years 1957-2022

[Dollar amounts in billions]

Calendar

year

Income Cost Asset Reservesa Trust

fund

ratio at

start of

year Total b

Net payroll tax

contributionsc

GF

reimbursementsdTaxation of

benefitsc Netintereste Totala

Benefit

paymentsa f

Administrative

costs

RRB

interchange

Net

increase

during

year

Amount

at end

of year

1957 . . $0.7 $0.7 — — g $0.1 $0.1 g — $0.6 $0.6 —

1958 . . 1.0 1.0 — — g .3 .2 g — .7 1.4 249

1959 . . .9 .9 — — g .5 .5 g g .4 1.8 284

1960 . . 1.1 1.0 — — $0.1 .6 .6 g g .5 2.3 304

1961 . . 1.1 1.0 — — .1 1.0 .9 $0.1 g .1 2.4 239

1962 . . 1.1 1.0 — — .1 1.2 1.1 .1 g -.1 2.4 206

1963 . . 1.2 1.1 — — .1 1.3 1.2 .1 g -.1 2.2 183

1964 . . 1.2 1.2 — — .1 1.4 1.3 .1 g -.2 2.0 159

1965 . . 1.2 1.2 — — .1 1.7 1.6 .1 g -.4 1.6 121

1966 . . 2.1 2.0 g — .1 1.9 1.8 .1 g .1 1.7 82

1967 . . 2.4 2.3 g — .1 2.1 1.9 .1 g .3 2.0 83

1968 . . 3.5 3.3 g — .1 2.5 2.3 .1 g 1.0 3.0 83

1969 . . 3.8 3.6 g — .2 2.7 2.6 .1 g 1.1 4.1 111

1970 . . 4.8 4.5 g — .3 3.3 3.1 .2 g 1.5 5.6 126

1971 . . 5.0 4.6 $0.1 — .4 4.0 3.8 .2 g 1.0 6.6 140

1972 . . 5.6 5.1 .1 — .4 4.8 4.5 .2 g .8 7.5 140

1973 . . 6.4 5.9 .1 — .5 6.0 5.8 .2 g .5 7.9 125

1974 . . 7.4 6.8 .1 — .5 7.2 7.0 .2 g .2 8.1 110

1975 . . 8.0 7.4 .1 — .5 8.8 8.5 .3 g -.8 7.4 92

1976 . . 8.8 8.2 .1 — .4 10.4 10.1 .3 g -1.6 5.7 71

1977 . . 9.6 9.1 .1 — .3 11.9 11.5 .4 g -2.4 3.4 48

1978 . . 13.8 13.4 .1 — .3 13.0 12.6 .3 g .9 4.2 26

1979 . . 15.6 15.1 .1 — .4 14.2 13.8 .4 g 1.4 5.6 30

1980 . . 13.9 13.3 .1 — .5 15.9 15.5 .4 g -2.0 3.6 35

1981 . . 17.1 16.7 .2 — .2 17.7 17.2 .4 g -.6 3.0 21

1982 . . 22.7 22.0 .2 — .5 18.0 17.4 .6 g h -.4 2.7 17

1983 . . 20.7 18.0 1.1 — 1.6 18.2 17.5 .6 g 2.5 5.2 15

1984 . . 17.3 15.5 .4 $0.2 1.2 18.5 17.9 .6 g -1.2 4.0 i

35

1985 . . 19.3 17.0 1.2 .2 .9 19.5 18.8 .6 g h2.4 6.3 i

27

1986 . . 19.4 18.2 .2 .2 .8 20.5 19.9 .6 $0.1 h1.5 7.8 i

38

1987 . . 20.3 19.5 .2 g .6 21.4 20.5 .8 .1 -1.1 6.7 i

44

1988 . . 22.7 21.8 .2 .1 .6 22.5 21.7 .7 .1 .2 6.9 i

38

1989 . . 24.8 23.8 .2 .1 .7 23.8 22.9 .8 .1 1.0 7.9 i

38

1990 . . 28.8 28.4 -.6 .1 .9 25.6 24.8 .7 .1 3.2 11.1 i

40

1991 . . 30.4 29.1 g .2 1.1 28.6 27.7 .8 .1 1.8 12.9 39

1992 . . 31.4 30.1 g .2 1.1 32.0 31.1 .8 .1 -.6 12.3 40

1993 . . 32.3 31.2 g .3 .8 35.7 34.6 1.0 .1 -3.4 9.0 35

1994 . . 52.8 51.4 g .3 1.2 38.9 37.7 1.0 .1 14.0 22.9 23

1995 . . 56.7 54.4 -.2 .3 2.2 42.1 40.9 1.1 .1 14.6 37.6 55

1996 . . 60.7 57.3 g .4 3.0 45.4 44.2 1.2 g 15.4 52.9 83

1997 . . 60.5 56.0 g .5 4.0 47.0 45.7 1.3 .1 13.5 66.4 113

1998 . . 64.4 59.0 g .6 4.8 49.9 48.2 1.6 .2 14.4 80.8 133

1999 . . 69.5 63.2 g .7 5.7 53.0 51.4 1.5 .1 16.5 97.3 152

2000 . . 77.9 71.1 -.8 .7 6.9 56.8 55.0 1.6 .2 21.1 118.5 171

2001 . . 83.9 74.9 g .8 8.2 61.4 59.6 1.7 g 22.5 141.0 193

2002 . . 87.4 77.3 g .9 9.2 67.9 65.7 2.0 .2 19.5 160.5 208

2003 . . 88.1 77.4 g .9 9.7 73.1 70.9 2.0 .2 15.0 175.4 219

2004 . . 91.4 80.3 g 1.1 10.0 80.6 78.2 2.2 .2 10.8 186.2 218

2005 . . 97.4 86.1 g 1.1 10.3 88.0 85.4 2.3 .3 9.4 195.6 212

2006 . . 102.6 90.8 g 1.2 10.6 94.5 91.7 2.3 .4 8.2 203.8 207

2007 . . 109.9 95.2 g 1.4 13.2 98.8 95.9 2.5 .4 11.1 214.9 206

2008 . . 109.8 97.6 g 1.3 11.0 109.0 106.0 2.5 .4 .9 215.8 197

2009 . . 109.3 96.9 g 2.0 10.5 121.5 118.3 2.7 .4 -12.2 203.5 178
Appendices

166

2010 . . $104.0 $92.5 $0.4 $1.9 $9.3 $127.7 $124.2 $3.0 $0.5 -$23.6 $179.9 159

2011 . . 106.3 81.9 14.9 1.6 7.9 132.3 128.9 2.9 .5 -26.1 153.9 136

2012 . . 109.1 85.6 16.5 .6 6.4 140.3 136.9 2.9 .5 -31.2 122.7 110

2013 . . 111.2 105.4 .7 .4 4.7 143.4 140.1 2.8 .6 -32.2 90.4 86

2014 . . 114.9 109.7 .1 1.7 3.4 145.1 141.7 2.9 .4 -30.2 60.2 62

2015 . . 118.6 115.4 g 1.1 2.1 146.6 143.4 2.8 .4 -28.0 32.3 41

2016 . . 160.0 157.4 g 1.2 1.4 145.9 142.8 2.8 .4 14.1 46.3 22

2017 . . 171.0 167.1 g 2.0 1.9 145.8 142.8 2.8 .2 25.1 71.5 32

2018 . . 172.3 169.2 g .5 2.6 146.8 143.7 2.9 .2 25.6 97.1 49

2019 . . 143.9 139.4 g 1.6 2.9 147.9 145.1 2.7 .1 -4.0 93.1 66

2020 . . 149.7 145.3 g 1.7 2.8 146.3 143.6 2.6 .1 3.5 96.6 64

2021 . . 145.5 142.4 g .5 2.6 142.6 140.1 2.5 .1 2.8 99.4 68

2022 . . 165.1 160.7 g 1.6 2.8 146.5 143.6 2.7 .2 18.6 118.0 68

a Beginning in 1979, benefit payments scheduled to be paid on January 3 of a given year were paid on

December 31 of the preceding year as required by the statutory provision included in the 1977 Social Security

Amendments for early delivery of benefit payments when the normal payment delivery date is a Saturday, Sunday, or legal public holiday. Such advance payments have occurred about every 7 years, first for benefits scheduled for January 3, 1982. For comparability with other historical years and the projections in this report, all trust

fund operations and asset reserves reflect the 12 months of benefits scheduled for payment in each year without

regard to the accelerated payments described above.

b Represents asset reserves at the beginning of a year as a percentage of cost during the year. The table shows no

ratio for 1957 because no reserves existed at the beginning of the year.

c Includes adjustments for prior calendar years.

d Includes net reimbursements from the General Fund of the Treasury to the DI Trust Fund for: (1) the cost of

noncontributory wage credits for military service before 1957; (2) the cost in 1971-82 of deemed wage credits for

military service performed after 1956; (3) the cost of payroll tax credits provided to employees in 1984 and selfemployed persons in 1984-89 by Public Law 98-21; (4) the cost in 2009-17 of excluding certain self-employment

earnings from SECA taxes under Public Law 110-246; and (5) payroll tax revenue forgone under the provisions

of Public Laws 111-147, 111-312, 112-78, and 112-96. 

e Net interest includes net profits or losses on marketable investments. Beginning in 1967, the trust fund pays

administrative expenses on an estimated basis, with a final adjustment including interest made in the following

fiscal year. Net interest includes the amounts of these interest adjustments. The 1970 report describes the

accounting for administrative expenses for years prior to 1967. Beginning in July 1974, figures include relatively

small amounts of gifts to the fund. Net interest for 1983-86 reflects payments for interest on amounts owed under

the interfund borrowing provisions. During 1983-90, net interest reflects interest reimbursements paid from the

trust fund to the General Fund on advance tax transfers.

f Beginning in 1966, includes payments for vocational rehabilitation services furnished to disabled persons

receiving benefits because of their disabilities. Beginning in 1983, net benefit amounts include reimbursements

paid from the General Fund to the trust fund for unnegotiated benefit checks. Excluding the portion attributable

to vocational rehabilitation services and unnegotiated benefit checks, amounts are the same as benefits scheduled

under law at that time for all historical years.

g Between -$50 million and $50 million.

h Reflects interfund borrowing by the OASI Trust Fund from the DI Trust Fund in 1982 of $5.1 billion and the

subsequent repayment of that loan in 1985 ($2.5 billion) and 1986 ($2.5 billion).

i Reserves used for the trust fund ratio calculation include January advance tax transfers.

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Table VI.A2.— Operations of the DI Trust Fund, Calendar Years 1957-2022 (Cont.)

[Dollar amounts in billions]

Calendar

year

Income Cost Asset Reservesa Trust

fund

ratio at

start of

year Total b

Net payroll tax

contributionsc

GF

reimbursementsdTaxation of

benefitsc Netintereste Totala

Benefit

paymentsa f

Administrative

costs

RRB

interchange

Net

increase

during

year

Amount

at end

of year
167

History of Trust Fund Operations

Table VI.A3.— Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds,

Calendar Years 1957-2022

[Dollar amounts in billions]

Calendar

year

Income Cost Asset Reservesa Trust

fund

ratio at

start of

year Total b

Net payroll tax

contributionsc

GF

reimbursementsdTaxation of

benefitsc Netintereste Totala

Benefit

paymentsaf

Administrative

costs

RRB

interchange

Net

increase

during

year

Amount

at end

of year

1957 . . . $8.1 $7.5 — — $0.6 $7.6 $7.4 $0.2 g $0.5 $23.0 298

1958 9.1 8.5 — — .6 8.9 8.6 .2 $0.1 .2 23.2 259

1959 . . . 9.5 8.9 — — .6 10.8 10.3 .2 .3 -1.3 22.0 215

1960 . . . 12.4 11.9 — — .6 11.8 11.2 .2 .3 .6 22.6 186

1961 . . . 12.9 12.3 — — .6 13.4 12.7 .3 .3 -.5 22.2 169

1962 . . . 13.7 13.1 — — .6 15.2 14.5 .3 .4 -1.5 20.7 146

1963 . . . 16.2 15.6 — — .6 16.2 15.4 .3 .4 g 20.7 128

1964 . . . 17.5 16.8 — — .6 17.0 16.2 .4 .4 .5 21.2 122

1965 . . . 17.9 17.2 — — .7 19.2 18.3 .4 .5 -1.3 19.8 110

1966 . . . 23.4 22.6 $0.1 — .7 20.9 20.1 .4 .5 2.5 22.3 95

1967 . . . 26.4 25.4 .1 — .9 22.5 21.4 .5 .5 3.9 26.3 99

1968 . . . 28.5 27.0 .4 — 1.0 26.0 25.0 .6 .5 2.5 28.7 101

1969 . . . 33.3 31.5 .5 — 1.3 27.9 26.8 .6 .5 5.5 34.2 103

1970 . . . 37.0 34.7 .5 — 1.8 33.1 31.9 .6 .6 3.9 38.1 103

1971 . . . 40.9 38.3 .5 — 2.0 38.5 37.2 .7 .6 2.4 40.4 99

1972 . . . 45.6 42.9 .5 — 2.2 43.3 41.6 .9 .7 2.3 42.8 93

1973 . . . 54.8 51.9 .5 — 2.4 53.1 51.5 .8 .8 1.6 44.4 80

1974 . . . 62.1 58.9 .5 — 2.7 60.6 58.6 1.1 .9 1.5 45.9 73

1975 . . . 67.6 64.3 .5 — 2.9 69.2 67.0 1.2 1.0 -1.5 44.3 66

1976 . . . 75.0 71.6 .7 — 2.7 78.2 75.8 1.2 1.2 -3.2 41.1 57

1977 . . . 82.0 78.7 .7 — 2.5 87.3 84.7 1.4 1.2 -5.3 35.9 47

1978 . . . 91.9 88.9 .8 — 2.3 96.0 93.0 1.4 1.6 -4.1 31.7 37

1979 . . . 105.9 103.0 .7 — 2.2 107.3 104.4 1.5 1.5 -1.5 30.3 30

1980 . . . 119.7 116.7 .7 — 2.3 123.5 120.6 1.5 1.4 -3.8 26.5 25

1981 . . . 142.4 139.4 .8 — 2.2 144.4 141.0 1.7 1.6 -1.9 24.5 18

1982 . . . 147.9 145.7 .9 — 1.4 160.1 156.2 2.1 1.8 h .2 24.8 15

1983 . . . 171.3 156.3 6.7 — 8.3 171.2 166.7 2.2 2.3 .1 24.9 14

1984 . . . 186.6 175.0 5.2 $3.0 3.4 180.4 175.7 2.3 2.4 6.2 31.1 i

21

1985 . . . 203.5 192.1 5.2 3.4 2.7 190.6 186.1 2.2 2.4 h11.1 42.2 i

24

1986 . . . 216.8 207.4 1.9 3.7 3.9 201.5 196.7 2.2 2.7 h 4.7 46.9 i

29

1987 . . . 231.0 220.6 1.9 3.2 5.3 209.1 204.1 2.4 2.6 21.9 68.8 i

31

1988 . . . 263.5 249.5 2.3 3.4 8.2 222.5 217.1 2.5 2.9 41.0 109.8 i

41

1989 . . . 289.4 271.9 2.3 2.5 12.7 236.2 230.9 2.4 2.9 53.2 163.0 i

57

1990 . . . 315.4 294.5 -1.3 5.0 17.2 253.1 247.8 2.3 3.0 62.3 225.3 i

75

1991 . . . 329.7 301.6 .1 6.1 21.9 274.2 268.2 2.6 3.5 55.5 280.7 82

1992 . . . 342.6 311.3 -.1 6.1 25.4 291.9 286.0 2.7 3.2 50.7 331.5 96

1993 . . . 355.6 322.0 .1 5.6 27.9 308.8 302.4 3.0 3.4 46.8 378.3 107

1994 . . . 381.1 344.7 g 5.3 31.1 323.0 316.8 2.7 3.5 58.1 436.4 117

1995 . . . 399.5 359.1 -.4 5.8 35.0 339.8 332.6 3.1 4.1 59.7 496.1 128

1996 . . . 424.5 378.9 g 6.8 38.7 353.6 347.0 3.0 3.6 70.9 567.0 140

1997 . . . 457.7 406.0 g 7.9 43.8 369.1 362.0 3.4 3.7 88.6 655.5 154

1998 . . . 489.2 430.2 g 9.7 49.3 382.3 375.0 3.5 3.8 106.9 762.5 171

1999 . . . 526.6 459.6 g 11.6 55.5 392.9 385.8 3.3 3.8 133.7 896.1 194

2000 . . . 568.4 492.5 -.8 12.3 64.5 415.1 407.6 3.8 3.7 153.3 1,049.4 216

2001 . . . 602.0 516.4 g 12.7 72.9 438.9 431.9 3.7 3.3 163.1 1,212.5 239

2002 . . . 627.1 532.5 .4 13.8 80.4 461.7 453.8 4.2 3.6 165.4 1,378.0 263

2003 . . . 631.9 533.5 g 13.4 84.9 479.1 470.8 4.6 3.7 152.8 1,530.8 288

2004 . . . 657.7 553.0 g 15.7 89.0 501.6 493.3 4.5 3.8 156.1 1,686.8 305

2005 . . . 701.8 592.9 -.3 14.9 94.3 529.9 520.7 5.3 3.9 171.8 1,858.7 318

2006 . . . 744.9 625.6 g 16.9 102.4 555.4 546.2 5.3 3.8 189.5 2,048.1 335

2007 . . . 784.9 656.1 g 18.6 110.2 594.5 584.9 5.5 4.0 190.4 2,238.5 345

2008 . . . 805.3 672.1 g 16.9 116.3 625.1 615.3 5.7 4.0 180.2 2,418.7 358

2009 . . . 807.5 667.3 g 21.9 118.3 685.8 675.5 6.2 4.1 121.7 2,540.3 353
Appendices

168

Tables VI.A4 and VI.A5 show the total asset reserves of the OASI Trust

Fund and the DI Trust Fund, respectively, at the end of calendar years 2021

and 2022. The tables show the invested asset reserves by interest rate and

year of maturity. Bonds issued to the trust funds in 2022 had an interest rate

of 3.000 percent, compared with an interest rate of 1.500 percent for bonds

issued in 2021.

2010 . . $781.1 $637.3 $2.4 $23.9 $117.5 $712.5 $701.6 $6.5 $4.4 $68.6 $2,609.0 357

2011 . . 805.1 564.2 102.7 23.8 114.4 736.1 725.1 6.4 4.6 69.0 2,677.9 354

2012 . . 840.2 589.5 114.3 27.3 109.1 785.8 774.8 6.3 4.7 54.4 2,732.3 341

2013 . . 855.0 726.2 4.9 21.1 102.8 822.9 812.3 6.2 4.5 32.1 2,764.4 332

2014 . . 884.3 756.0 .5 29.6 98.2 859.2 848.5 6.1 4.7 25.0 2,789.5 322

2015 . . 920.2 794.9 .3 31.6 93.3 897.1 886.3 6.2 4.7 23.0 2,812.5 311

2016 . . 957.5 836.2 .1 32.8 88.4 922.3 911.4 6.2 4.7 35.2 2,847.7 305

2017 . . 996.6 873.6 g 37.9 85.1 952.5 941.5 6.5 4.5 44.1 2,891.8 299

2018 . . 1,003.4 885.1 g 35.0 83.3 1,000.2 988.6 6.7 4.9 3.1 2,894.9 289

2019 . . 1,061.8 944.5 g 36.5 80.8 1,059.3 1,047.9 6.4 4.9 2.5 2,897.4 273

2020 . . 1,118.1 1,001.3 g 40.7 76.1 1,107.2 1,095.9 6.3 5.0 10.9 2,908.3 262

2021 . . 1,088.3 980.6 g 37.6 70.1 1,144.6 1,133.2 6.5 4.9 -56.3 2,852.0 254

2022 . . 1,221.8 1,106.6 .2 48.6 66.4 1,243.9 1,231.7 6.7 5.5 -22.1 2,829.9 229

a Beginning in 1979, benefit payments scheduled to be paid on January 3 of a given year were paid on

December 31 of the preceding year as required by the statutory provision included in the 1977 Social Security

Amendments for early delivery of benefit payments when the normal payment delivery date is a Saturday, Sunday, or legal public holiday. Such advance payments have occurred about every 7 years, first for benefits scheduled for January 3, 1982. For comparability with other historical years and the projections in this report, all trust

fund operations and asset reserves reflect the 12 months of benefits scheduled for payment in each year without

regard to the accelerated payments described above.

b Represents asset reserves at the beginning of a year as a percentage of cost during the year.

c Includes adjustments for prior calendar years.

d Includes net reimbursements from the General Fund of the Treasury to the OASI and DI Trust Funds for: (1) the

cost of noncontributory wage credits for military service before 1957; (2) the cost in 1971-82 of deemed wage

credits for military service performed after 1956; (3) the cost of benefits to certain uninsured persons who attained

age 72 before 1968; (4) the cost of payroll tax credits provided to employees in 1984 and self-employed persons in

1984-89 by Public Law 98-21; (5) the cost in 2009-17 of excluding certain self-employment earnings from SECA

taxes under Public Law 110-246; and (6) payroll tax revenue forgone under the provisions of Public Laws 111-

147, 111-312, 112-78, and 112-96. Also includes transfers of a portion of proceeds from repayments of loans

authorized under Public Law 116-136.

e Net interest includes net profits or losses on marketable investments. Beginning in 1967, the trust funds pay

administrative expenses on an estimated basis, with a final adjustment including interest made in the following

fiscal year. Net interest includes the amounts of these interest adjustments. The 1970 report describes the accounting for administrative expenses for years prior to 1967. Beginning in October 1973, figures include relatively

small amounts of gifts to the funds. Net interest for 1983-86 reflects payments for interest on amounts owed under

the interfund borrowing provisions. During 1983-90, net interest reflects interest reimbursements paid from the

trust funds to the General Fund on advance tax transfers.

f Beginning in 1966, includes payments for vocational rehabilitation services furnished to disabled persons receiving benefits because of their disabilities. Beginning in 1983, net benefit amounts include reimbursements paid

from the General Fund to the trust funds for unnegotiated benefit checks. Excluding the portion attributable to

vocational rehabilitation services and unnegotiated benefit checks, amounts are the same as benefits scheduled

under law at that time for all historical years.

g Between -$50 million and $50 million.

h Reflects interfund borrowing by the OASI Trust Fund from the HI Trust Fund in 1982 of $12.4 billion and the

subsequent repayment of that loan in 1985 ($1.8 billion) and 1986 ($10.6 billion).

i Reserves used for the trust fund ratio calculation include January advance tax transfers.

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Table VI.A3.— Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds,

Calendar Years 1957-2022 (Cont.)

[Dollar amounts in billions]

Calendar

year

Income Cost Asset Reservesa Trust

fund

ratio at

start of

year Total b

Net payroll tax

contributionsc

GF

reimbursementsdTaxation of

benefitsc Netintereste Totala

Benefit

paymentsaf

Administrative

costs

RRB

interchange

Net

increase

during

year

Amount

at end

of year
169

History of Trust Fund Operations

Note: Amounts of special issue securities are at par value. The trust fund purchases and redeems special

issue securities at par value. The table groups equal amounts that mature in two or more years at a given

interest rate.

Table VI.A4.—OASI Trust Fund Asset Reserves, End of 

Calendar Years 2021 and 2022

[In thousands]

December 31, 2021 December 31, 2022

Obligations sold only to the trust funds (special issue securities):

Certificates of indebtedness: 

 1.500 percent, 2022 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $53,944,023 —

 3.875 percent, 2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — $44,376,263

 4.000 percent, 2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — 72,467,687

 4.250 percent, 2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — 71,154,194

Bonds:

 0.750 percent, 2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14,931,408 —

 0.750 percent, 2024-25 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29,862,816 29,862,816

 0.750 percent, 2026-33 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119,451,256 119,451,256

 1.375 percent, 2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,693,020 —

 1.375 percent, 2024-25 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13,386,040 13,386,040

 1.375 percent, 2026 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,693,019 6,693,019

 1.375 percent, 2027 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173,240,401 173,240,401

 1.500 percent, 2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,696,179 —

 1.500 percent, 2024-25 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25,392,358 25,392,358

 1.500 percent, 2026-32 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88,873,260 88,873,260

 1.500 percent, 2033 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,696,179 12,696,179

 1.750 percent, 2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,908,185 —

 1.750 percent, 2024-25 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,816,370 9,816,370

 1.750 percent, 2026-27 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,816,372 9,816,372

 1.750 percent, 2028 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178,148,587 178,148,587

 1.875 percent, 2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,320,956 —

 1.875 percent, 2024-27 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,283,824 9,283,824

 1.875 percent, 2028-30 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,962,865 6,962,865

 1.875 percent, 2031 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188,111,583 188,111,583

 2.000 percent, 2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,655,628 —

 2.000 percent, 2024-25 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,311,256 7,311,256

 2.000 percent, 2026-29 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14,622,516 14,622,516

 2.000 percent, 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185,790,628 185,790,628

 2.250 percent, 2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,582,927 —

 2.250 percent, 2024-25 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,165,854 11,165,854

 2.250 percent, 2026-27 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,165,852 11,165,852

 2.250 percent, 2028 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,582,927 5,582,927

 2.250 percent, 2029 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183,731,514 183,731,514

 2.250 percent, 2030-31 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,193,030 3,193,030

 2.250 percent, 2032 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189,708,097 189,708,097

 2.250 percent, 2033 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,818,538 12,818,538

 2.250 percent, 2034 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177,899,339 177,899,339

 2.500 percent, 2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,971,787 —

 2.500 percent, 2024-25 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,943,574 11,943,574

 2.500 percent, 2026 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166,547,382 166,547,382

 2.875 percent, 2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,264,432 —

 2.875 percent, 2024 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,264,432 7,264,432

 2.875 percent, 2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160,575,595 160,575,595

 2.875 percent, 2032 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1

 2.875 percent, 2033 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176,889,560 176,889,560

 3.000 percent, 2024-28 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — 86,332,165

 3.000 percent, 2029-32 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — 69,065,728

 3.000 percent, 2033 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — 17,266,433

 3.250 percent, 2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,628,270 —

 3.250 percent, 2024 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153,311,163 153,311,163

 4.000 percent, 2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142,682,893 —

 5.000 percent, 2022 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130,152,459 —

Total investments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,752,688,355 2,711,918,658

Undisbursed balancesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

a A negative amount for a given year represents a situation where actual program cost exceeded the amount of

invested securities of the OASI Trust Fund that were redeemed to cover such cost. In this situation, future

redemption of additional invested securities will be required to pay for this shortfall.

-52,566 -19,502

Total asset reserves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,752,635,789 2,711,899,156
Appendices

170

Note: Amounts of special issue securities are at par value. The trust fund purchases and redeems special

issue securities at par value. The table groups equal amounts that mature in two or more years at a given

interest rate.

Table VI.A5.—DI Trust Fund Asset Reserves, End of Calendar Years 2021 and 2022

[In thousands]

December 31, 2021 December 31, 2022

Obligations sold only to the trust funds (special issue securities):

Certificates of indebtedness: 

 1.500 percent, 2022 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $7,651,929 —

 1.625 percent, 2022 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 352,540 —

 3.875 percent, 2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — $9,749,638

 4.250 percent, 2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — 10,542,313

Bonds:

 0.750 percent, 2024-26 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,438,419 1,438,419

 0.750 percent, 2027-29 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,438,422 1,438,422

 0.750 percent, 2030-34 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,397,365 2,397,365

 0.750 percent, 2035 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,348,270 5,348,270

 1.500 percent, 2024-29 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 845,268 845,268

 1.500 percent, 2030-35 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 845,274 845,274

 1.500 percent, 2036 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,489,148 5,489,148

 2.250 percent, 2024-25 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,489,358 2,489,358

 2.250 percent, 2026 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,244,680 1,244,680

 2.250 percent, 2027-32 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,468,074 7,468,074

 2.250 percent, 2033-34 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,737,594 9,737,594

 2.875 percent, 2024-25 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,248,238 7,248,238

 2.875 percent, 2026-32 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25,368,826 25,368,826

 3.000 percent, 2024-29 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — 8,953,524

 3.000 percent, 2030-35 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — 8,953,518

 3.000 percent, 2036 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — 1,492,254

 3.000 percent, 2037 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — 6,981,402

 4.000 percent, 2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14,675,554 —

 5.000 percent, 2022 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,398,822 —

Total investments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99,437,781 118,031,585

Undisbursed balancesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

a A negative amount for a given year represents a situation where actual program cost exceeded the amount

of invested securities of the DI Trust Fund that were redeemed to cover such cost. In this situation, future

redemption of additional invested securities will be required to pay for this shortfall.

-43,640 -43,856

Total asset reserves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99,394,141 117,987,729
171

History of Actuarial Status

B. HISTORY OF ACTUARIAL STATUS ESTIMATES

This appendix chronicles the history of the long-range OASDI actuarial balance and the year of combined OASI and DI Trust Fund reserve depletion

since 1982 under the intermediate assumptions. The actuarial balance is the

principal summary measure of actuarial status for the long-range period as a

whole. The year of trust fund reserve depletion is also critical, as it indicates

the year by which legislative action would be needed in order to maintain

timely payment of scheduled benefits. 

The 1983 report was the last report for which the actuarial balance was positive for the OASDI program. The two basic components of actuarial balance

are the summarized income rate and the summarized cost rate, both of which

are expressed as percentages of taxable payroll over the period. Section

IV.B.4 defines the summarized income rate, summarized cost rate, and actuarial balance in detail. For any given period, the actuarial balance includes

the difference between the present value of non-interest income for the

period and the present value of the cost for the period, each divided by the

present value of taxable payroll for all years in the period. The computation

of the actuarial balance also includes:

 • In the reports for 1988 and later, the amount of the trust fund asset

reserves on hand at the beginning of the valuation period; and

 • In the reports for 1991 and later, the present value of a target trust fund

asset reserve equal to 100 percent of the annual cost to be reached and

maintained at the end of the valuation period.

Reports of 1973-87 used the average-cost method, a simpler method which

approximates the results of the present-value approach for computing the

actuarial balance. Under the average-cost method, the sum of the annual cost

rates over the 75-year projection period was divided by the total number of

years, 75, to obtain the average cost rate per year. A similar computation produced the average income rate. The actuarial balance was the difference

between the average income rate and the average cost rate.

When the 1973 report introduced the average-cost method, the financing of

the program was more nearly on a pay-as-you-go basis over the long-range.

Also, the long-range demographic and economic assumptions in that report

produced an annual rate of growth in total taxable payroll which was about

the same as the annual rate at which the trust funds earned interest. In either

circumstance (i.e., pay-as-you-go financing, where the annual income rate is

the same as the annual cost rate, or an annual rate of growth in total taxable

payroll equal to the annual interest rate), the average-cost method produces
Appendices

172

the same result as the present-value method. However, by 1988, neither of

these circumstances still existed.

After the 1977 and 1983 Social Security Amendments, projections indicated

substantial increases in the trust fund reserves continuing well into the 21st

century. These laws changed the program’s financing from essentially payas-you-go to partial advance funding through the 75-year period. Also, for

the reports from 1973 through 1987, long-range fertility rates and average

real wage growth assumptions were gradually reduced, resulting in an annual

rate of growth in taxable payroll that was significantly lower than the

assumed interest rate by 1987. As a result of the difference between this rate

of growth and the assumed interest rate, the results of the average-cost

method and the present-value method began to diverge in the reports for

1973 through 1987, and by 1988 they were quite different. While the average-cost method reflected most of the effects of assumed interest rates, it no

longer reflected all interest effects. The present-value method, by contrast,

accurately reflects the implications of assumed interest rates. As a result, the

1988 report reintroduced the present-value method of calculating the actuarial balance.

A positive actuarial balance indicates that estimated income (plus starting

reserves, beginning with the 1988 report) is more than sufficient to meet estimated trust fund obligations (plus the ending target fund, beginning with the

1991 report) for the period as a whole. Even with a positive actuarial balance, it is possible for reserves to become temporarily depleted within the

long-range period. An actuarial balance of zero indicates that the estimated

income (plus starting reserves, beginning with the 1988 report) exactly

matches estimated trust fund obligations (plus the ending target fund, beginning with the 1991 report) for the period as a whole. A negative actuarial balance indicates that estimated income (plus starting reserves, beginning with

the 1988 report) is insufficient to meet estimated trust fund obligations (plus

the ending target fund, beginning with the 1991 report) for the entire period. 

Table VI.B1 contains the long-range OASDI actuarial balances, summarized

income rates, and summarized cost rates for the 1982 report through the current report. The reports presented these values on the basis of the intermediate assumptions, which recent reports refer to as alternative II and reports

from 1982 to 1990 referred to as alternative II-B.
173

History of Actuarial Status

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Table VI.B1.—Long-Range OASDI Actuarial Balances and Trust Fund Reserve 

Depletion Dates as Shown in the Trustees Reports for 1982-2023 

under Intermediate Assumptionsa

[As a percentage of taxable payroll]

a The 1982-90 reports referred to the intermediate assumptions as alternative II-B; the 1991 and later 

reports refer to the intermediate assumptions as alternative II.

Year of report

Summarized

income rate

Summarized

cost rate

Actuarial

balanceb

b The definition and method of calculating the actuarial balance were changed in 1988 and 1991. See text

for details.

Change from

previous yearc

c A detailed year-by-year breakdown of the reasons for the changes in the actuarial balance since the 1983

Trustees Report may be found in Actuarial Note 2023.8 at www.ssa.gov/OACT/NOTES/ran8/.

Year of

combined trust

fund reserve

depletion

1982 . . . . . . . . . . . 12.27 14.09 -1.82 d

d Between -0.005 and 0.005 percent of taxable payroll.

1983

1983 . . . . . . . . . . . 12.87 12.84 +.02 +1.84 e

e Not projected to become depleted during the 75-year projection period.

1984 . . . . . . . . . . . 12.90 12.95 -.06 -.08 e

1985 . . . . . . . . . . . 12.94 13.35 -.41 -.35 2049

1986 . . . . . . . . . . . 12.96 13.40 -.44 -.03 2051

1987 . . . . . . . . . . . 12.89 13.51 -.62 -.18 2051

1988 . . . . . . . . . . . 12.94 13.52 -.58 +.04 2048

1989 . . . . . . . . . . . 13.02 13.72 -.70 -.13 2046

1990 . . . . . . . . . . . 13.04 13.95 -.91 -.21 2043

1991 . . . . . . . . . . . 13.11 14.19 -1.08 -.17 2041

1992 . . . . . . . . . . . 13.16 14.63 -1.46 -.38 2036

1993 . . . . . . . . . . . 13.21 14.67 -1.46 d 2036

1994 . . . . . . . . . . . 13.24 15.37 -2.13 -.66 2029

1995 . . . . . . . . . . . 13.27 15.44 -2.17 -.04 2030

1996 . . . . . . . . . . . 13.33 15.52 -2.19 -.02 2029

1997 . . . . . . . . . . . 13.37 15.60 -2.23 -.03 2029

1998 . . . . . . . . . . . 13.45 15.64 -2.19 +.04 2032

1999 . . . . . . . . . . . 13.49 15.56 -2.07 +.12 2034

2000 . . . . . . . . . . . 13.51 15.40 -1.89 +.17 2037

2001 . . . . . . . . . . . 13.58 15.44 -1.86 +.03 2038

2002 . . . . . . . . . . . 13.72 15.59 -1.87 -.01 2041

2003 . . . . . . . . . . . 13.78 15.70 -1.92 -.04 2042

2004 . . . . . . . . . . . 13.84 15.73 -1.89 +.03 2042

2005 . . . . . . . . . . . 13.87 15.79 -1.92 -.04 2041

2006 . . . . . . . . . . . 13.88 15.90 -2.02 -.09 2040

2007 . . . . . . . . . . . 13.92 15.87 -1.95 +.06 2041

2008 . . . . . . . . . . . 13.94 15.63 -1.70 +.26 2041

2009 . . . . . . . . . . . 14.02 16.02 -2.00 -.30 2037

2010 . . . . . . . . . . . 14.01 15.93 -1.92 +.08 2037

2011 . . . . . . . . . . . 14.02 16.25 -2.22 -.30 2036

2012 . . . . . . . . . . . 14.02 16.69 -2.67 -.44 2033

2013 . . . . . . . . . . . 13.88 16.60 -2.72 -.05 2033

2014 . . . . . . . . . . . 13.89 16.77 -2.88 -.16 2033

2015 . . . . . . . . . . . 13.86 16.55 -2.68 +.20 2034

2016 . . . . . . . . . . . 13.84 16.50 -2.66 +.02 2034

2017 . . . . . . . . . . . 13.84 16.67 -2.83 -.17 2034

2018 . . . . . . . . . . . 13.84 16.69 -2.84 -.02 2034

2019 . . . . . . . . . . . 13.81 16.60 -2.78 +.06 2035

2020 . . . . . . . . . . . 13.85 17.06 -3.21 -.43 2035

2021 . . . . . . . . . . . 13.78 17.31 -3.54 -.32 2034

2022 . . . . . . . . . . . 13.78 17.20 -3.42 +.12 2035

2023 . . . . . . . . . . . 13.78 17.38 -3.61 -.19 2034
Appendices

174

For several of the years included in the table, significant legislative changes

or definitional changes affected the actuarial balance. The Social Security

Amendments of 1983 account for the largest single change shown in the

table: the actuarial balance of -1.82 for the 1982 report improved to +0.02 for

the 1983 report. In 1985, the actuarial balance changed largely because of an

adjustment made to the method for estimating the age distribution of immigrants.

Rebenchmarking of the National Income and Product Accounts and changes

in demographic assumptions contributed to the change in the actuarial balance for 1987. Various changes in assumptions and methods for the 1988

report had roughly offsetting effects on the actuarial balance. In 1989 and

1990, changes in economic assumptions accounted for most of the changes

in the actuarial balance.

In 1991, the effect of legislation, changes in economic assumptions, and the

introduction of the cost of reaching and maintaining an ending target trust

fund level combined to produce the change in the actuarial balance. In 1992,

changes in disability assumptions and the method for projecting average benefit levels accounted for most of the change in the actuarial balance. In 1993,

numerous small changes in assumptions and methods had offsetting effects

on the actuarial balance. In 1994, changes in the real wage assumptions, disability rates, and the earnings sample used for projecting average benefit levels accounted for most of the change in the actuarial balance. In 1995,

numerous small changes had largely offsetting effects on the actuarial balance, including a substantial reallocation of the payroll tax rate, which

reduced the OASI actuarial balance, but increased the DI actuarial balance.

In 1996, a change in the method of projecting dually-entitled beneficiaries

produced a large increase in the actuarial balance, which almost totally offset

decreases produced by changes in the valuation period and in the demographic and economic assumptions. Various changes in assumptions and

methods for the 1997 report had roughly offsetting effects on the actuarial

balance. In 1998, increases caused by changes in the economic assumptions,

although partially offset by decreases produced by changes in the valuation

period and in the demographic assumptions, accounted for most of the

changes in the actuarial balance. In 1999, increases caused by changes in the

economic assumptions (related to improvements in the CPI by the Bureau of

Labor Statistics) accounted for most of the changes in the actuarial balance.

For the 2000 report, changes in economic assumptions and methodology

caused increases in the actuarial balance, although reductions in the balance

caused by the change in valuation period and changes in demographic

assumptions partially offset these increases. 
175

History of Actuarial Status

For the 2001 report, increases caused by changes in the demographic starting

values, although partially offset by a decrease produced by the change in the

valuation period, accounted for most of the changes in the actuarial balance.

For the 2002 report, changes in the valuation period and the demographic

assumptions—both decreases in the actuarial balance—were offset by

changes in the economic assumptions, while an increase due to disability

assumptions was slightly more than offset by a decrease due to changes in

the projection methods and data. For the 2003 report, an increase due to the

change in program assumptions was more than offset by decreases due to the

change in valuation period and changes in demographic assumptions. In the

2004 report, increases due to changing the method of projecting benefit levels for higher earners more than offset decreases in the actuarial balance arising from the change in the valuation period and the net effect of other

changes in programmatic data and methods. For the 2005 report, an increase

due to changing the method of projecting future average benefit levels was

more than offset by decreases due to changes in the valuation period, updated

starting values for the economic assumptions, and other methodological

changes. 

In 2006, decreases in the actuarial balance due to the change in the valuation

period, a reduction in the ultimate annual real interest rate, and improvements in calculating mortality for disabled workers, were greater in aggregate than increases in the actuarial balance due to changes in demographic

starting values and the ultimate total fertility rate, as well as other programmatic data and method changes. For the 2007 report, increases in the actuarial balance arising from revised disability incidence rate assumptions,

improvements in average benefit level projections, and changes in near-term

economic projections, more than offset decreases in the balance due to the

valuation period change and updated historical mortality data. For the 2008

report, the large increase in the actuarial balance was primarily due to

changes in immigration projection methods and assumptions. These changes

more than offset the decreases in the actuarial balance due to the change in

the valuation period and the lower starting and ultimate mortality rates. In

2009, changes in starting values and near-term economic assumptions due to

the economic recession, faster ultimate rates of decline in death rates for

ages 65-84, and the change in the valuation period accounted for most of the

large decrease in the actuarial balance. Legislative changes, in particular the

estimated effects of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act and the

Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010, were the main reason

for the increase in the actuarial balance for the 2010 report. The change in

the valuation period partially offset this increase; there were also changes in
Appendices

176

several assumptions, methods, and recent data which had largely offsetting

effects.

For the 2011 report, changes in mortality projections, due to new starting

values and revised methods, were the most significant of several factors contributing to the increase in the deficit. In 2012, changes in economic assumptions and starting values accounted for about half of the decrease in actuarial

balance. Other factors worsening the actuarial balance were the change in

valuation period, changes to starting demographic values, changes to ultimate disability incidence assumptions, and methodology changes and data

updates. For the 2013 report, the change in valuation period accounted for

the entire net change in the actuarial balance. The effects of substantially

lower death rates for 2009 than previously projected and the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 (which lowered the Federal marginal income tax

rates) were offset by updates of program-specific data and methodology

improvements. In 2014, changes in economic data and assumptions

accounted for the majority of the net change in the actuarial balance. Other

factors worsening the actuarial balance were the change in the valuation

period and various methodology improvements and data updates. For the

2015 report, methodological improvements and updates of programmatic

data accounted for the majority of the net increase in the actuarial balance.

Also increasing the actuarial balance were a lower assumed ultimate average

wage differential and changes in near-term economic assumptions. These

increases were offset somewhat by the change in the valuation period and

updates to historical and near-term projected birth rates.

For the 2016 report, the actuarial balance increased primarily due to the

effects of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015 and improvements made to

immigration methods. The most notable immigration change was a revision

to the method for projecting emigration of the never-authorized population to

reflect lower rates of emigration for those who have resided here longer.

These increases in the actuarial balance were largely offset by the effects of

changes in ultimate economic assumptions, including a lower real interest

rate and a lower annual increase in the rate of price inflation. In 2017, the

change in the valuation period and various methodology improvements

accounted for most of the net reduction in the actuarial balance. Other economic factors also contributed to worsening the actuarial balance, including

a lower real wage differential assumption and an assumed weaker recovery

from the recent recession. These reductions were offset somewhat by lower

estimated disability incidence rates over the short-range period. For the 2018

report, incorporating the effects of lower-than-expected birth rates, lower

near-term fertility assumptions, and the change in the valuation period
177

History of Actuarial Status

decreased the actuarial balance. Offsetting these factors to a large degree

were the effects of higher-than-expected death rates and several methods

improvements, most notably an update to the sample used to project average

benefit levels for newly-entitled worker beneficiaries. For the 2019 report,

the actuarial balance increased primarily due to higher-than-expected death

rates and lower near-term and ultimate disability incidence rate assumptions.

Partially offsetting these factors were the effects of a lower ultimate real

interest rate assumption and the change in the valuation period. For the 2020

report, the actuarial balance decreased primarily due to the following factors.

First, the repeal of the Affordable Care Act’s excise tax on employer-sponsored group health insurance premiums reduced projected earnings as a share

of employee compensation, having a significant negative financial effect on

the trust funds. In addition, lower assumed values for the ultimate total fertility rate, the ultimate rate of price inflation, and the ultimate real interest rate,

as compared to the rates assumed for the 2019 report, decreased the actuarial

balance.

In 2021, the actuarial balance decreased due to the change in the valuation

period and three main additional factors. First, economic assumptions were

updated to reflect experience during and following the COVID-19 pandemic.

In particular, the levels of productivity and potential GDP were assumed to

be roughly 1 percent lower beginning with the second quarter of 2020. Second, the data and methodology used for projecting average benefit levels

were updated and improved. Third, data and estimates provided by the

Office of Tax Analysis at the Department of the Treasury indicated lower

near-term and ultimate levels of taxation of benefits. 

For the 2022 report, the actuarial balance increased primarily due to a

decrease in the assumed ultimate disability incidence rate, incorporating

recent economic data, and changes in near-term economic assumptions. In

particular, employment, earnings, and GDP following the 2020 recession

recovered much faster than had been assumed in the 2021 report. These disability and economic factors were partially offset by the change in the valuation period and updates for recent demographic data.

Section IV.B.6 describes changes affecting the actuarial balance shown for

the 2023 report.
Appendices

178

C. FISCAL YEAR HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED TRUST FUND 

OPERATIONS THROUGH 2032

Tables VI.C1, VI.C2, and VI.C3 contain details of the fiscal year 2022 operations of the OASI, DI, and the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, respectively. The fiscal year for the U.S. Government is the 12-month period

ending September 30. Fiscal year 2022 is the most recent fiscal year for

which complete information is available. The descriptions of the values in

these tables are similar to the corresponding descriptions and values in the

calendar year operations tables in section III.A. Please see that section for a

description of the various items of income and cost.
179

Fiscal Year Operations and Projections

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Table VI.C1.—Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Fiscal Year 2022

[In millions]

Total asset reserves, September 30, 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $2,755,799

Income:

Net payroll tax contributions:

Payroll tax contributionsa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

a Includes adjustments for prior years.

$933,445

Payments from the General Fund of the Treasury for payroll tax contributions subject to refund . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -4,403

Net payroll tax contributionsa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 929,042

Reimbursements from the General Fund:

Reduction in payroll tax contributions due to P.L.s 111-312, 112-78, and 112-96a . b

b Between -$0.5 and $0.5 million.

Payroll tax credits due to P.L. 98-21a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . b

Net General Fund reimbursementsa b

Income based on taxation of benefit payments:

Withheld from benefit payments to nonresident aliens . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259

All other, not subject to withholding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46,711

Total income from taxation of benefits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46,970

Investment income and interest adjustments:

Interest on investments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65,081

Interest adjustmentsc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

c Includes: (1) interest on adjustments in the allocation of administrative expenses between the trust fund and

the General Fund account for the Supplemental Security Income program, (2) interest arising from the

revised allocation of administrative expenses among the trust funds, and (3) interest on certain reimbursements to the trust fund.

b

Total investment income and interest adjustments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65,081

Gifts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . b

Total income. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,041,093

Cost:

Benefit payments:

Monthly benefits and lump-sum death paymentsd . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

d Includes net reductions for the recovery of overpayments.

1,063,929

Reimbursement from the General Fund for unnegotiated checks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -52

Payment for costs of vocational rehabilitation services for disabled beneficiaries 19

Net benefit paymentsd . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,063,896

Financial interchange with the Railroad Retirement “Social Security Equivalent

Benefit Account”. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,316

Administrative expenses:

Costs incurred by:

Social Security Administration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,452

Department of the Treasury . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 603

Offsetting miscellaneous receipts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -1

Miscellaneous reimbursements from the General Fund e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

e Reimbursements for costs incurred in performing certain legislatively mandated activities not directly

related to administering the OASI program.

-5

Net administrative expenses 4,050

Total cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,073,262

Net increase in asset reserves. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -32,169

Total invested assets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,723,601

Undisbursed balancesf . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

f A positive balance represents a situation where the invested securities of the OASI Trust Fund that were

redeemed to make cash payments exceeded actual program cash payments. In this situation, this excess

amount will be used to partially offset future redemption of additional invested securities.

29

Total asset reserves, September 30, 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,723,629
Appendices

180

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Table VI.C2.—Operations of the DI Trust Fund, Fiscal Year 2022

[In millions]

Total asset reserves, September 30, 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $98,063

Income:

Net payroll tax contributions:

Payroll tax contributionsa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

a Includes adjustments for prior years.

$158,563

Payments from the General Fund of the Treasury for payroll tax contributions subject to refund . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -746

Net payroll tax contributionsa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157,816

Reimbursements from the General Fund:

Reduction in payroll tax contributions due to P.L.s 111-312, 112-78, and 112-96a. b

b Between -$0.5 and $0.5 million.

Payroll tax credits due to P.L. 98-21a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . b

Net General Fund reimbursementsa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . b

Income based on taxation of benefit payments:

Withheld from benefit payments to nonresident aliens . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

All other, not subject to withholdinga . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,529

Total income from taxation of benefitsa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,533

Investment income and interest adjustments:

Interest on investments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,657

Interest adjustmentsc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

c Includes: (1) interest on adjustments in the allocation of administrative expenses between the trust fund and

the General Fund account for the Supplemental Security Income program, (2) interest arising from the

revised allocation of administrative expenses among the trust funds, and (3) interest on certain reimbursements to the trust fund.

2

Total investment income and interest adjustments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,658

Gifts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . b

Total income. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162,007

Cost:

Benefit payments:

Monthly benefitsd . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

d Includes net reductions for the recovery of overpayments.

142,386

Reimbursement from the General Fund for unnegotiated checks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -28

Payment for costs of vocational rehabilitation services for disabled beneficiaries . 101

Net benefit paymentsd . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142,459

Financial interchange with the Railroad Retirement “Social Security Equivalent

Benefit Account”. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156

Administrative expenses:

Costs incurred by:

Social Security Administration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,655

Department of the Treasury . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105

Demonstration projects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Miscellaneous reimbursements from the General Funde . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

e Reimbursements for costs incurred in performing certain legislatively mandated activities not directly

related to administering the DI program.

-2

Net administrative expenses. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,764

Total cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145,379

Net increase in asset reserves. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16,628

Total invested assets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114,679

Undisbursed balancesf . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

f A positive balance represents a situation where the invested securities of the DI Trust Fund that were

redeemed to make cash payments exceeded actual program cash payments. In this situation, this excess

amount will be used to partially offset future redemption of additional invested securities.

12

Total asset reserves, September 30, 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114,691
181

Fiscal Year Operations and Projections

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Table VI.C3.—Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, Fiscal Year 2022

[In millions]

Total asset reserves, September 30, 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $2,853,862

Income:

Net payroll tax contributions:

Payroll tax contributionsa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

a Includes adjustments for prior years.

$1,092,00

7

Payments from the General Fund of the Treasury for payroll tax contributions subject to refund . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -5,149

Net payroll tax contributionsa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,086,858

Reimbursements from the General Fund:

Reduction in payroll tax contributions due to P.L.s 111-312, 112-78, and 112-96a. b

b Between -$0.5 and $0.5 million.

Payroll tax credits due to P.L. 98-21a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . b

Net General Fund reimbursementsa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . b

Income based on taxation of benefit payments:

Withheld from benefit payments to nonresident aliens . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 262

All other, not subject to withholdinga . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48,240

Total income from taxation of benefitsa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48,502

Investment income and interest adjustments:

Interest on investments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67,738

Interest adjustmentsc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

c Includes: (1) interest on adjustments in the allocation of administrative expenses between the trust funds

and the General Fund account for the Supplemental Security Income program, (2) interest arising from the

revised allocation of administrative expenses among the trust funds, and (3) interest on certain reimbursements to the trust funds.

2

Total investment income and interest adjustments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67,740

Gifts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . b

Total income. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,203,100

Cost:

Benefit payments:

Monthly benefits and lump-sum death paymentsd . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

d Includes net reductions for the recovery of overpayments.

1,206,315

Reimbursement from the General Fund for unnegotiated checks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -80

Payment for costs of vocational rehabilitation services for disabled beneficiaries . 120

Net benefit paymentsd . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,206,355

Financial interchange with the Railroad Retirement “Social Security Equivalent

Benefit Account”. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,471

Administrative expenses:

Costs incurred by:

Social Security Administration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,108

Department of the Treasury . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 708

Offsetting miscellaneous receipts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -1

Demonstration projects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Miscellaneous reimbursements from the General Funde . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

e Reimbursements for costs incurred in performing certain legislatively mandated activities not directly

related to administering the OASI and DI programs.

-7

Net administrative expenses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,814

Total cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,218,641

Net increase in asset reserves. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -15,541

Total invested assets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,838,279

Undisbursed balancesf . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

f A positive balance represents a situation where the invested securities of the combined OASI and DI Trust

Funds that were redeemed to make cash payments exceeded actual program cash payments. In this situation,

this excess amount will be used to partially offset future redemption of additional invested securities.

41

Total asset reserves, September 30, 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,838,320
Appendices

182

Tables VI.C4, VI.C5, and VI.C6 show estimates of the operations and status of

the OASI, DI, and the hypothetical combined OASI and DI Trust Funds,

respectively, during fiscal years 2018 through 2032.
183

Fiscal Year Operations and Projections

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Table VI.C4.—Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Fiscal Years 2018-2032a

[Dollar amounts in billions]

Fiscal 

year

Income Cost Asset Reserves Trust

fund

ratio at

start of

year Total b

Net payroll tax

contributionsc

GF

reimbursementsd

Taxation of

benefitsce Net

interest Total

Scheduled

benefits

Administrative

costs

RRB

interchange

Net

increase

during

year

Amount

at end

of year

Historical data:

2018 . $822.4 $706.1 f $34.7 $81.6 $841.5 $833.0 $3.7 $4.8 -$19.0 $2,801.1 335

2019 . 900.1 785.6 f 34.9 79.6 896.8 888.1 3.9 4.9 3.2 2,804.3 312

2020 . 955.6 841.7 f 37.9 76.0 948.7 940.2 3.7 4.8 6.9 2,811.2 296

2021 . 936.0 831.1 f 34.3 70.5 991.4 982.7 3.9 4.8 -55.4 2,755.8 284

2022 . 1,041.1 929.0 f 47.0 65.1 1,073.3 1,063.9 4.0 5.3 -32.2 2,723.6 257

Intermediate:

2023 . 1,149.1 1,035.3 $0.2 50.4 63.2 1,200.4 1,190.9 4.1 5.4 -51.3 2,672.3 227

2024 . 1,153.0 1,037.1 f 55.6 60.3 1,301.7 1,291.4 4.3 6.1 -148.7 2,523.6 205

2025 . 1,211.1 1,093.7 f 59.2 58.2 1,383.1 1,372.6 4.3 6.1 -171.9 2,351.7 182

2026 . 1,272.9 1,147.6 f 70.9 54.4 1,465.2 1,454.4 4.5 6.3 -192.3 2,159.4 161

2027 . 1,327.3 1,195.5 .2 79.1 52.5 1,549.6 1,538.5 4.6 6.4 -222.3 1,937.1 139

2028 . 1,390.0 1,255.5 f 85.4 49.2 1,638.9 1,627.6 4.8 6.5 -248.9 1,688.3 118

2029 . 1,440.3 1,304.4 f 92.1 43.9 1,731.2 1,719.7 5.0 6.6 -290.9 1,397.4 98

2030 . 1,495.3 1,358.4 f 99.6 37.3 1,825.7 1,813.9 5.1 6.7 -330.4 1,067.0 77

2031 . 1,549.2 1,412.6 f 107.6 29.0 1,921.2 1,909.2 5.3 6.8 -372.0 695.0 56

2032 . 1,599.3 1,464.8 f 116.2 18.3 2,017.6 2,005.2 5.4 6.9 -418.2 276.7 34

Low-cost:

2023 . 1,152.1 1,038.1 .2 50.4 63.4 1,199.9 1,190.4 4.1 5.4 -47.8 2,675.8 227

2024 . 1,191.2 1,072.0 f 55.4 63.8 1,298.0 1,287.7 4.3 6.0 -106.8 2,569.0 206

2025 . 1,276.5 1,153.7 f 59.2 63.6 1,382.8 1,372.4 4.3 6.1 -106.3 2,462.7 186

2026 . 1,370.2 1,234.0 f 71.2 65.0 1,471.3 1,460.5 4.6 6.2 -101.1 2,361.6 167

2027 . 1,454.3 1,305.5 .2 79.8 68.8 1,562.8 1,551.7 4.8 6.3 -108.6 2,253.1 151

2028 . 1,551.9 1,393.6 f 86.5 71.9 1,660.2 1,648.7 5.1 6.4 -108.3 2,144.8 136

2029 . 1,639.0 1,471.7 f 93.7 73.6 1,761.8 1,749.9 5.3 6.6 -122.8 2,022.0 122

2030 . 1,733.8 1,556.9 f 101.8 75.1 1,866.8 1,854.5 5.5 6.7 -133.0 1,889.0 108

2031 . 1,831.6 1,644.7 f 110.6 76.4 1,974.5 1,961.9 5.8 6.8 -142.9 1,746.1 96

2032 . 1,928.3 1,732.0 f 120.1 76.2 2,084.8 2,071.8 6.0 7.0 -156.5 1,589.6 84

High-cost:

2023 . 1,140.3 1,027.0 .2 50.5 62.6 1,200.9 1,191.3 4.1 5.4 -60.6 2,663.1 227

2024 . 1,107.0 990.9 f 55.9 60.2 1,310.3 1,299.9 4.3 6.1 -203.3 2,459.8 203

2025 . 1,159.6 1,046.1 f 59.9 53.6 1,398.4 1,387.8 4.3 6.3 -238.7 2,221.1 176

2026 . 1,207.3 1,088.0 f 71.5 47.7 1,477.7 1,466.8 4.4 6.5 -270.5 1,950.6 150

2027 . 1,246.5 1,124.0 .2 79.4 42.9 1,556.2 1,545.1 4.6 6.5 -309.6 1,641.0 125

2028 . 1,286.9 1,165.5 f 85.4 36.1 1,639.2 1,627.9 4.7 6.6 -352.2 1,288.7 100

2029 . 1,312.1 1,193.0 f 91.7 27.4 1,724.2 1,712.8 4.7 6.7 -412.1 876.6 75

2030 . 1,341.0 1,223.7 f 98.8 18.6 1,810.4 1,798.8 4.8 6.8 -469.4 407.3 48

2031 . g 1,252.9 f 106.2 g 1,896.6 1,884.9 4.9 6.8 g g 21

2032 . g 1,278.7 f 114.2 g 1,982.8 1,970.9 5.0 6.9 g gg

a The OASI Trust Fund reserves become depleted in fiscal year 2031 under the high-cost assumptions. For any

period during which reserves would be depleted, scheduled benefits could not be paid in full on a timely basis,

income from taxing benefits would be less than would apply to scheduled benefits, and interest on trust fund

reserves would be negligible. 

b Represents asset reserves at the beginning of a year (which are identical to reserves at the end of the prior year

shown in the “Amount at end of year” column) as a percentage of cost for the year.

c Includes adjustments for prior years.

d Includes reimbursements from the General Fund of the Treasury to the OASI Trust Fund for: (1) the cost of

payroll tax credits provided to employees in 1984 and self-employed persons in 1984-89 by Public Law 98-21;

(and (2) payroll tax revenue forgone under the provisions of Public Laws 111-147, 111-312, 112-78, and 112-96.

Also includes transfers of a portion of proceeds from repayments of loans authorized under Public Law 116-136.

e Revenue from taxation of benefits is the amount that would be assessed on benefit amounts scheduled in law.

f Between -$50 million and $50 million.

g When the fund reserves are depleted, values under current law would reflect permissible expenditures only,

which would be less than the full cost of paying scheduled benefits shown in this table.
Appendices

184

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Table VI.C5.—Operations of the DI Trust Fund, Fiscal Years 2018-2032

[Dollar amounts in billions]

Fiscal 

year

Income Cost Asset Reserves Trust

fund

ratio at

start of

yeara

a Represents asset reserves at the beginning of a year (which are identical to reserves at the end of the prior year

shown in the “Amount at end of year” column) as a percentage of cost for the year. 

Total

Net payroll tax

contributionsb

b Includes adjustments for prior years.

GF

reimbursementsc

c Includes reimbursements from the General Fund of the Treasury to the DI Trust Fund for: (1) the cost of payroll

tax credits provided to employees in 1984 and self-employed persons in 1984-89 by Public Law 98-21; and (2)

payroll tax revenue forgone under the provisions of Public Laws 111-147, 111-312, 112-78, and 112-96.

Taxation of

benefitsbd

d Revenue from taxation of benefits is the amount that would be assessed on benefit amounts scheduled in law.

Net

interest Total

Scheduled

benefits

Administrative

costs

RRB

interchange

Net

increase

during

year

Amount

at end

of year

Historical data:

2018. . $170.3 $167.0 e

e Between -$50 million and $50 million.

$1.0 $2.2 $146.6 $143.6 $2.8 $0.2 $23.7 $93.1 47

2019. . 151.0 146.8 e 1.2 2.9 147.7 144.9 2.8 .1 3.3 96.4 63

2020. . 147.4 142.9 e 1.7 2.8 146.7 144.1 2.5 .1 .7 97.1 66

2021. . 144.4 141.2 e .5 2.7 143.4 140.7 2.5 .1 1.0 98.1 68

2022. . 162.0 157.8 e 1.5 2.7 145.4 142.5 2.8 .2 16.6 114.7 67

Intermediate:

2023. . 180.1 175.8 e 1.1 3.2 151.0 148.0 2.9 e 29.1 143.8 76

2024. . 182.0 176.1 e 1.7 4.2 158.5 155.5 3.0 e 23.5 167.3 91

2025. . 192.7 185.7 e 1.8 5.1 168.4 165.3 3.1 e 24.3 191.5 99

2026. . 203.1 194.9 e 2.2 6.0 178.5 175.3 3.2 e 24.6 216.1 107

2027. . 212.5 203.0 e 2.4 7.1 187.1 183.7 3.4 e 25.4 241.5 115

2028. . 224.1 213.2 e 2.6 8.3 193.5 189.9 3.6 e 30.6 272.1 125

2029. . 234.0 221.5 e 2.7 9.8 199.2 195.5 3.7 e 34.8 306.9 137

2030. . 245.2 230.7 e 2.9 11.6 205.2 201.2 3.9 e 40.0 346.9 150

2031. . 256.7 239.9 e 3.1 13.7 212.2 208.1 4.1 .1 44.5 391.3 163

2032. . 268.1 248.7 e 3.3 16.0 220.3 216.0 4.3 .1 47.8 439.1 178

Low-cost:

2023. . 180.6 176.3 e 1.1 3.3 150.1 147.2 2.9 e 30.5 145.2 76

2024. . 188.5 182.0 e 1.7 4.8 155.5 152.4 3.0 e 33.0 178.2 93

2025. . 204.2 195.9 e 1.8 6.5 163.0 160.0 3.1 e 41.1 219.3 109

2026. . 220.5 209.6 e 2.1 8.8 170.9 167.7 3.3 e 49.6 268.9 128

2027. . 235.8 221.7 e 2.3 11.8 177.0 173.6 3.5 e 58.7 327.7 152

2028. . 254.6 236.6 e 2.4 15.6 180.7 177.0 3.7 e 74.0 401.6 181

2029. . 272.5 249.9 e 2.5 20.1 184.1 180.2 3.9 e 88.4 490.1 218

2030. . 292.5 264.4 e 2.7 25.5 188.1 184.0 4.1 e 104.4 594.5 261

2031. . 313.9 279.3 e 2.8 31.8 193.3 188.9 4.3 e 120.6 715.0 308

2032. . 336.4 294.1 e 3.0 39.3 199.8 195.2 4.5 e 136.6 851.7 358

High-cost:

2023. . 178.7 174.4 e 1.1 3.2 151.8 148.9 2.9 e 26.8 141.5 76

2024. . 174.0 168.3 e 1.7 4.0 162.3 159.3 3.0 e 11.6 153.2 87

2025. . 183.8 177.6 e 1.9 4.2 176.0 172.9 3.1 e 7.8 161.0 87

2026. . 191.5 184.8 e 2.3 4.4 188.5 185.2 3.2 e 3.0 164.0 85

2027. . 198.0 190.9 e 2.6 4.5 199.2 195.8 3.4 e -1.2 162.8 82

2028. . 205.2 197.9 e 2.8 4.5 207.6 204.1 3.5 e -2.4 160.4 78

2029. . 210.0 202.6 e 3.0 4.4 214.7 211.1 3.6 e -4.8 155.6 75

2030. . 215.3 207.8 e 3.2 4.3 222.1 218.3 3.8 .1 -6.8 148.8 70

2031. . 220.3 212.7 e 3.4 4.2 230.7 226.7 3.9 .1 -10.4 138.4 64

2032. . 224.6 217.1 e 3.6 3.9 240.2 236.1 4.0 .1 -15.6 122.8 58
185

Fiscal Year Operations and Projections

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Table VI.C6.—Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds,

Fiscal Years 2018-2032a

[Dollar amounts in billions]

a The OASDI Trust Fund reserves become depleted in fiscal year 2032 under the high-cost assumptions. For any

period during which reserves would be depleted, scheduled benefits could not be paid in full on a timely basis,

income from taxing benefits would be less than would apply to scheduled benefits, and interest on trust fund

reserves would be negligible.

Fiscal

year

Income Cost Asset Reserves Trust

fund

ratio at

start of

yearb

b Represents asset reserves at the beginning of a year (which are identical to reserves at the end of the prior year

shown in the “Amount at end of year” column) as a percentage of cost for the year. 

Total

Net payroll tax

contributionsc

c Includes adjustments for prior years.

GF

reimbursementsd

d Includes reimbursements from the General Fund of the Treasury to the OASI and DI Trust Funds for: (1) the

cost of payroll tax credits provided to employees in 1984 and self-employed persons in 1984-89 by Public Law

98-21; and (2) payroll tax revenue forgone under the provisions of Public Laws 111-147, 111-312, 112-78, and

112-96. Also includes transfers of a portion of proceeds from repayments of loans authorized under Public Law

116-136.

Taxation of

benefitsce

e Revenue from taxation of benefits is the amount that would be assessed on benefit amounts scheduled in law.

Net

interest Total

 Scheduled

benefits

Administrative

costs

RRB

interchange

Net

increase

during

year

Amount

at end

of year

Historical data:

2018 . $992.7 $873.2 f

f Between -$50 million and $50 million.

$35.7 $83.8 $988.0 $976.7 $6.4 $4.9 $4.7 $2,894.2 292

2019 . 1,051.1 932.4 f 36.1 82.5 1,044.5 1,033.0 6.6 4.9 6.5 2,900.7 277

2020 . 1,103.0 984.6 f 39.6 78.8 1,095.4 1,084.3 6.2 5.0 7.5 2,908.2 265

2021 . 1,080.4 972.3 f 34.8 73.3 1,134.8 1,123.4 6.4 4.9 -54.4 2,853.9 256

2022 . 1,203.1 1,086.9 f 48.5 67.7 1,218.6 1,206.4 6.8 5.5 -15.5 2,838.3 234

Intermediate:

2023 . 1,329.2 1,211.1 $0.2 51.5 66.4 1,351.4 1,338.9 7.0 5.4 -22.2 2,816.2 210

2024 . 1,335.0 1,213.3 f 57.3 64.4 1,460.2 1,446.9 7.3 6.1 -125.3 2,690.9 193

2025 . 1,403.8 1,279.5 f 61.1 63.3 1,551.5 1,537.9 7.4 6.2 -147.7 2,543.2 173

2026 . 1,476.1 1,342.5 f 73.1 60.4 1,643.8 1,629.7 7.7 6.3 -167.7 2,375.5 155

2027 . 1,539.8 1,398.5 .2 81.6 59.6 1,736.7 1,722.3 8.0 6.4 -196.9 2,178.7 137

2028 . 1,614.1 1,468.7 f 88.0 57.5 1,832.4 1,817.5 8.4 6.5 -218.3 1,960.4 119

2029 . 1,674.4 1,525.9 f 94.8 53.7 1,930.5 1,915.1 8.7 6.6 -256.1 1,704.3 102

2030 . 1,740.5 1,589.1 f 102.5 48.9 2,030.9 2,015.1 9.0 6.8 -290.4 1,413.9 84

2031 . 1,805.9 1,652.5 f 110.7 42.7 2,133.4 2,117.2 9.4 6.9 -327.6 1,086.3 66

2032 . 1,867.4 1,713.6 f 119.6 34.3 2,237.9 2,221.2 9.7 7.0 -370.5 715.8 49

Low-cost:

2023 . 1,332.8 1,214.4 .2 51.5 66.7 1,350.1 1,337.6 7.0 5.4 -17.3 2,821.0 210

2024 . 1,379.7 1,254.1 f 57.1 68.6 1,453.5 1,440.1 7.3 6.1 -73.8 2,747.2 194

2025 . 1,480.7 1,349.6 f 61.0 70.1 1,545.8 1,532.4 7.4 6.1 -65.2 2,682.1 178

2026 . 1,590.7 1,443.6 f 73.3 73.8 1,642.3 1,628.2 7.8 6.2 -51.5 2,630.5 163

2027 . 1,690.1 1,527.2 .2 82.1 80.6 1,739.9 1,725.3 8.3 6.3 -49.8 2,580.7 151

2028 . 1,806.6 1,630.2 f 88.9 87.5 1,840.9 1,825.8 8.7 6.4 -34.3 2,546.4 140

2029 . 1,911.5 1,721.6 f 96.2 93.7 1,945.8 1,930.1 9.2 6.6 -34.3 2,512.0 131

2030 . 2,026.3 1,821.3 f 104.5 100.6 2,054.9 2,038.5 9.6 6.7 -28.6 2,483.5 122

2031 . 2,145.5 1,924.0 f 113.4 108.1 2,167.8 2,150.8 10.1 6.8 -22.3 2,461.2 115

2032 . 2,264.7 2,026.1 f 123.1 115.5 2,284.6 2,267.0 10.6 7.0 -19.9 2,441.3 108

High-cost:

2023 . 1,319.0 1,201.4 .2 51.5 65.8 1,352.7 1,340.2 7.0 5.4 -33.7 2,804.6 210

2024 . 1,281.0 1,159.2 f 57.7 64.2 1,472.6 1,459.2 7.3 6.1 -191.6 2,613.0 190

2025 . 1,343.4 1,223.7 f 61.8 57.9 1,574.4 1,560.7 7.4 6.3 -230.9 2,382.0 166

2026 . 1,398.8 1,272.8 f 73.8 52.1 1,666.2 1,652.1 7.7 6.5 -267.4 2,114.6 143

2027 . 1,444.5 1,314.8 .2 82.1 47.4 1,755.3 1,740.9 7.9 6.5 -310.8 1,803.8 120

2028 . 1,492.1 1,363.4 f 88.2 40.6 1,846.8 1,832.0 8.2 6.6 -354.7 1,449.1 98

2029 . 1,522.1 1,395.6 f 94.7 31.8 1,939.0 1,923.9 8.4 6.7 -416.9 1,032.2 75

2030 . 1,556.3 1,431.5 f 101.9 22.9 2,032.5 2,017.1 8.6 6.8 -476.2 556.0 51

2031 . 1,585.9 1,465.6 f 109.6 10.7 2,127.3 2,111.6 8.8 6.9 -541.4 14.6 26

2032 . g

g When the fund reserves are depleted, values under current law would reflect permissible expenditures only,

which would be less than the full cost of paying scheduled benefits shown in this table.

1,495.8 f 117.9 g 2,223.0 2,207.0 9.0 7.0 g g 1
Appendices

186

D. LONG-RANGE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

This appendix presents estimates that illustrate the sensitivity of the longrange actuarial status of the OASDI program to changes in selected individual assumptions. The estimates based on the three alternative sets of assumptions, which were presented earlier in this report, illustrate the effects of

varying all of the principal assumptions simultaneously, in order to portray a

significantly more optimistic or pessimistic future. For each sensitivity analysis presented in this appendix, the intermediate alternative II projection is

the reference point, and one assumption is varied within that alternative. The

variation used for each individual assumption is the same as the level used

for that assumption in the low-cost alternative I and high-cost alternative III

projections.

Each table in this section shows the effects of changing a particular assumption on the OASDI summarized income rates, summarized cost rates, and

actuarial balances for 25-year, 50-year, and 75-year valuation periods. Each

table also shows the effects on the annual balance for 2097 and on the year of

combined trust fund reserve depletion. Following each table is a discussion

of the estimated changes in cost rates. The change in each of the actuarial

balances is approximately equal to the change in the corresponding cost rate,

but in the opposite direction. This appendix does not discuss income rates

following each table because income rates vary only slightly with changes in

assumptions that affect revenue from taxation of benefits.

1. Total Fertility Rate

Table VI.D1 shows selected measures of OASDI actuarial status on the basis

of alternative II with three different assumptions for the future paths of total

fertility rates. Under the Trustees’ assumptions, the average annual total fertility rate for the period 2033 through 2097 is 1.69, 1.99, and 2.19 children

per woman under alternatives III, II, and I, respectively. The ultimate total

fertility rate (1.70 under the alternative III assumptions, 2.00 under the alternative II assumptions, and 2.20 under the alternative I assumptions) is

reached on a cohort basis over the lifetime of girls attaining age 14 in 2021

and later, so that the ultimate fertility rate on an annual (or period) basis is

reached in 2056.
187

Long-Range Sensitivity Analysis

For the 25-year period, the cost rate for the three fertility assumptions varies

by only about 0.02 percent of taxable payroll. In contrast, the 75-year cost

rate varies over a wide range, decreasing from 18.17 percent to

16.87 percent, as the average total fertility rate for the period 2033 through

2097 increases from 1.69 for alternative III to 2.19 for alternative I. Similarly, while the 25-year actuarial balance varies by only 0.02 percent of taxable payroll, the 75-year actuarial balance varies over a much wider range,

from -4.32 percent to -3.14 percent.

During the 25-year period, the very slight increases in the working-age population and tax income resulting from higher fertility (than that experienced in

an alternative scenario) are more than offset by the effects of decreases in

female labor force participation and increases in the number of child beneficiaries. Therefore, program cost as a percent of taxable payroll increases

slightly with higher fertility. For the 75-year long-range period, however,

changes in fertility have a relatively greater effect on the working-age population than on the beneficiary population. As a result, an increase in fertility

significantly reduces the cost rate. Each increase of 0.1 in the average total

fertility rate increases (improves) the long-range actuarial balance by about

0.24 percent of taxable payroll.

Table VI.D1.—Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Fertility Assumptions

[As a percentage of taxable payroll]

Valuation period

Average total fertility ratea b

a The total fertility rate for any year is the average number of children that would be born to a woman if she

were to experience, at each age of her life, the birth rate observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if

she were to survive the entire childbearing period. The average total fertility rate shown is for the period

2033 through 2097.

b The total fertility rates used for this analysis are consistent with those assumed for the three alternative scenarios. All other assumptions used for this analysis are from alternative II.

1.69 1.99 2.19

Summarized income rate:

25-year: 2023-47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.34 14.34 14.34

50-year: 2023-72 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.93 13.90 13.88

75-year: 2023-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.85 13.78 13.73

Summarized cost rate:

25-year: 2023-47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.83 16.85 16.85

50-year: 2023-72 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.47 17.14 16.92

75-year: 2023-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.17 17.38 16.87

Actuarial balance:

25-year: 2023-47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -2.49 -2.50 -2.51

50-year: 2023-72 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -3.54 -3.24 -3.04

75-year: 2023-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -4.32 -3.61 -3.14

Annual balance for 2097 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -6.69 -4.35 -3.07

Year of combined trust fund reserve depletion . . . . . . . . 2034 2034 2034
Appendices

188

2. Death Rates

Table VI.D2 shows selected measures of OASDI actuarial status on the basis

of alternative II with three different assumptions about future reductions in

death rates for the period from 2032 to 2097. These assumptions are

described in section V.A.2. Under the Trustees’ assumptions, the age-sexadjusted death rates1 decline at average annual rates of 0.28 percent,

0.74 percent, and 1.24 percent for alternatives I, II, and III, respectively. 

The variation in cost for the 25-year period is less pronounced than the variation for the 75-year period because decreases in death rates have cumulative

effects. The 25-year cost rate increases from 16.65 percent (for an average

annual death-rate reduction of 0.28 percent from 2032 to 2097) to

17.10 percent (for an average annual death-rate reduction of 1.24 percent

from 2032 to 2097). The 75-year cost rate increases from 16.65 percent to

18.21 percent. The actuarial balance decreases from -2.31 percent to

-2.75 percent for the 25-year period, and from -2.91 percent to -4.39 percent

for the 75-year period.

Lower death rates raise both the income (through increased taxable payroll)

and the cost of the OASDI program. The relative increase in cost, however,

 1 Based on the enumerated total population as of April 1, 2010, if that population were to experience the

death rates by age and sex for the selected year.

Table VI.D2.—Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Death-Rate Assumptions

[As a percentage of taxable payroll]

Valuation period

Average annual death-rate reductiona b

a The average annual death-rate reduction is the average annual geometric rate of decline in the age-sexadjusted death rate for the period from 2032 to 2097.

b The death-rate reductions used for this analysis are consistent with those assumed for the three alternative

scenarios. All other assumptions used for this analysis are from alternative II.

0.28 percent 0.74 percent 1.24 percent

Summarized income rate:

25-year: 2023-47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.34 14.34 14.34

50-year: 2023-72 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.88 13.90 13.92

75-year: 2023-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.74 13.78 13.82

Summarized cost rate:

25-year: 2023-47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.65 16.85 17.10

50-year: 2023-72 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.66 17.14 17.72

75-year: 2023-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.65 17.38 18.21

Actuarial balance:

25-year: 2023-47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -2.31 -2.50 -2.75

50-year: 2023-72 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -2.78 -3.24 -3.79

75-year: 2023-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -2.91 -3.61 -4.39

Annual balance for 2097 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -2.88 -4.35 -5.82

Year of combined trust fund reserve depletion . . . . . . . . 2034 2034 2034
189

Long-Range Sensitivity Analysis

exceeds the relative increase in taxable payroll. For any given year, reductions in the death rates for people who are age 62 and over (ages at which

death rates are the highest) increase the number of retired-worker beneficiaries (and, therefore, the amount of retirement benefits paid) without adding

significantly to the number of covered workers (and, therefore, to the taxable

payroll). Reductions in death rates for people at age 50 to retirement eligibility age result in significant increases to the taxable payroll. However, those

increases are not large enough to offset the sum of the additional retirement

benefits mentioned above and the disability benefits paid to additional beneficiaries at these pre-retirement ages, which are ages of high disability incidence. At ages under 50, death rates are so low that even substantial

reductions in death rates do not result in significant increases in the numbers

of covered workers or beneficiaries. Consequently, if death rates decline by

about the same relative amount for all ages, the cost increases faster than the

rate of growth in payroll, which results in higher cost rates and lower actuarial balances. Each additional 0.1-percentage-point increase in the average

annual rate of decline in the death rate decreases (worsens) the long-range

actuarial balance by about 0.15 percent of taxable payroll.

3. Immigration

Table VI.D3 shows selected measures of OASDI actuarial status under alternative II with three different assumptions about the magnitude of total net

immigration (sum of net lawful permanent resident (LPR) immigration and

net other-than-LPR immigration). See section V.A.3 for more information on

immigration assumptions and methods. Under the Trustees’ assumptions,

total net annual immigration averages 829,000 persons, 1,245,000 persons,

and 1,683,000 persons for the period 2033 through 2097 under alternatives

III, II, and I, respectively. 
Appendices

190

For all three periods, when total net immigration increases, the cost rate

decreases. For the 25-year period, the cost rate decreases from 17.09 percent

of taxable payroll (for average annual total net immigration of 829,000 persons for 2033 through 2097) to 16.61 percent (for an average annual total net

immigration of 1,683,000 persons for 2033 through 2097). For the 50-year

period, it decreases from 17.50 percent to 16.79 percent, and for the 75-year

period, it decreases from 17.85 percent to 16.94 percent. The actuarial balance increases from -2.71 percent to -2.30 percent for the 25-year period,

from -3.56 percent to -2.92 percent for the 50-year period, and from

-4.02 percent to -3.21 percent for the 75-year period.

The cost rate decreases with an increase in total net immigration because

immigration occurs at relatively young ages, thereby increasing the numbers

of covered workers earlier than the numbers of beneficiaries. Increasing

average annual total net immigration by 100,000 persons increases

(improves) the long-range actuarial balance by about 0.09 percent of taxable

payroll.

4. Real Wage Growth

Table VI.D4 shows selected measures of OASDI actuarial status on the basis

of alternative II with three different assumptions about the real growth rate in

the average annual wage in OASDI covered employment. Under the TrustTable VI.D3.—Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Total Net Immigration Assumptions

[As a percentage of taxable payroll]

Valuation period

Average annual total net immigrationa b

a Average annual total net immigration is the annual total net immigration to the Social Security area, including both LPR and other-than-LPR immigration, averaged for 2033 through 2097.

b The total net immigration assumptions used for this analysis are consistent with those assumed for the

three alternative scenarios. All other assumptions used for this analysis are from alternative II.

829,000 1,245,000 1,683,000

Summarized income rate:

25-year: 2023-47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.37 14.34 14.31

50-year: 2023-72 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.94 13.90 13.86

75-year: 2023-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.82 13.78 13.73

Summarized cost rate:

25-year: 2023-47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.09 16.85 16.61

50-year: 2023-72 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.50 17.14 16.79

75-year: 2023-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.85 17.38 16.94

Actuarial balance:

25-year: 2023-47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -2.71 -2.50 -2.30

50-year: 2023-72 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -3.56 -3.24 -2.92

75-year: 2023-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -4.02 -3.61 -3.21

Annual balance for 2097 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -5.17 -4.35 -3.66

Year of combined trust fund reserve depletion . . . . . . . . 2034 2034 2034
191

Long-Range Sensitivity Analysis

ees’ assumptions, the average annual real growth rate in the average wage in

covered employment from 2032 to 2097 is 0.54 percent, 1.14 percent, and

1.74 percent under alternatives III, II, and I, respectively. 

For the 25-year period, the cost rate decreases from 17.68 percent (for a real

growth rate in the average wage in OASDI covered employment of

0.54 percent) to 16.03 percent (for a real growth rate of 1.74 percent). For the

50-year period, it decreases from 18.36 percent to 15.97 percent, and for the

75-year period it decreases from 18.75 percent to 16.05 percent. The actuarial balance increases from -3.22 percent to -1.81 percent for the 25-year

period, from -4.30 percent to -2.21 percent for the 50-year period, and from

-4.81 percent to -2.44 percent for the 75-year period.

The cost rate decreases with increasing real wage growth. Higher wages

increase taxable payroll immediately, but they increase benefit levels only

gradually as new beneficiaries become entitled. In addition, cost-of-living

adjustments (COLA) to benefits depend not on changes in wages, but on

changes in prices. Each 0.1-percentage-point increase in real wage growth

increases (improves) the long-range actuarial balance by about 0.20 percent

of taxable payroll.

Table VI.D4.—Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Real Wage Growth Assumptions

[As a percentage of taxable payroll]

Valuation period

Average annual real wage growth a b

a The average annual real wage growth is the average annual real growth rate in the average wage in OASDI

covered employment from 2032 to 2097.

b The real wage growth assumptions used for this analysis are consistent with those assumed for the three

alternative scenarios. All other assumptions used for this analysis are from alternative II.

0.54 1.14 1.74

Summarized income rate:

25-year: 2023-47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.46 14.34 14.22

50-year: 2023-72 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.05 13.90 13.76

75-year: 2023-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.94 13.78 13.62

Summarized cost rate:

25-year: 2023-47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.68 16.85 16.03

50-year: 2023-72 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.36 17.14 15.97

75-year: 2023-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.75 17.38 16.05

Actuarial balance:

25-year: 2023-47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -3.22 -2.50 -1.81

50-year: 2023-72 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -4.30 -3.24 -2.21

75-year: 2023-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -4.81 -3.61 -2.44

Annual balance for 2097 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -6.36 -4.35 -2.60

Year of combined trust fund reserve depletion . . . . . . . . 2033 2034 2035
Appendices

192

5. Consumer Price Index

Table VI.D5 shows selected measures of OASDI actuarial status on the basis

of alternative II with three different assumptions about the rate of increase

for the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers

(CPI). Under the Trustees’ assumptions, the annual increase in the CPI is

3.00 percent, 2.40 percent, and 1.80 percent under alternatives I, II, and III,

respectively. These ultimate rates of increase are reached by 2026 under all

three alternatives.

For all three periods, the cost rate increases when the assumed rates of

increase in the CPI are smaller. For the 25-year period, the cost rate increases

from 16.74 percent (for a CPI increase of 3.00 percent) to 16.94 percent (for

a CPI increase of 1.80 percent). For the 50-year period, it increases from

17.00 percent to 17.28 percent, and for the 75-year period, it increases from

17.23 percent to 17.53 percent. The actuarial balance decreases from

-2.42 percent to -2.59 percent for the 25-year period, from -3.12 percent to

-3.36 percent for the 50-year period, and from -3.47 percent to -3.74 percent

for the 75-year period.

The time lag between the effects of the CPI changes on taxable payroll and

on scheduled benefits explains these patterns. When the rate of increase in

the CPI is greater and real wage growth is constant, then: (1) the effect on

taxable payroll due to a greater rate of increase in average wages occurs

immediately and (2) the effect on benefits due to a larger COLA occurs with

Table VI.D5.—Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to CPI-Increase Assumptions

[As a percentage of taxable payroll]

Valuation period

Ultimate annual increase in CPIa

a The CPI assumptions used for this analysis are consistent with those assumed for the three alternative scenarios. All other assumptions used for this analysis are from alternative II.

3.00 2.40 1.80

Summarized income rate:

25-year: 2023-47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.32 14.34 14.36

50-year: 2023-72 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.89 13.90 13.92

75-year: 2023-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.76 13.78 13.79

Summarized cost rate:

25-year: 2023-47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.74 16.85 16.94

50-year: 2023-72 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.00 17.14 17.28

75-year: 2023-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.23 17.38 17.53

Actuarial balance:

25-year: 2023-47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -2.42 -2.50 -2.59

50-year: 2023-72 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -3.12 -3.24 -3.36

75-year: 2023-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -3.47 -3.61 -3.74

Annual balance for 2097 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -4.17 -4.35 -4.51

Year of combined trust fund reserve depletion . . . . . . . . 2034 2034 2034
193

Long-Range Sensitivity Analysis

a lag of about 1 year. As a result of these effects, the higher taxable payrolls

have a stronger effect than the higher benefits, which results in lower cost

rates. Each 0.1-percentage-point decrease in the rate of the change in the CPI

decreases (worsens) the long-range actuarial balance by about 0.02 percent

of taxable payroll.

6. Real Interest Rate

Table VI.D6 shows selected measures of OASDI actuarial status under alternative II with three different assumptions about the annual real interest rate

(compounded semiannually) for special public-debt obligations issuable to

the trust funds. Under the Trustees’ assumptions, the ultimate annual real

interest rate is 1.8 percent, 2.3 percent, and 2.8 percent under alternatives III,

II, and I, respectively. These ultimate rates are reached by 2033 under all

three alternatives. In each case, the ultimate annual increase in the CPI is

2.40 percent, which is consistent with alternative II. Therefore, the ultimate

annual yields are 4.2, 4.8, and 5.3 percent, respectively.

For the 25-year period, the cost rate decreases with increasing real interest

rates from 16.90 percent (for an ultimate real interest rate of 1.8 percent) to

16.79 percent (for an ultimate real interest rate of 2.8 percent). For the

50-year period, it decreases from 17.24 percent to 17.05 percent and, for the

75-year period, it decreases from 17.51 percent to 17.26 percent. The actuarTable VI.D6.—Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Real Interest Rate Assumptions

[As a percentage of taxable payroll]

Valuation period

Ultimate annual real interest ratea b

a The annual real interest rate is the effective annual yield on asset reserves held by the trust funds divided by

the annual rate of growth in the CPI.

b The real interest rate assumptions used for this analysis are consistent with those assumed for the three

alternative scenarios. All other assumptions used for this analysis are from alternative II.

1.8 percent 2.3 percent 2.8 percent

Summarized income rate:

25-year: 2023-47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.30 14.34 14.38

50-year: 2023-72 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.85 13.90 13.95

75-year: 2023-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.72 13.78 13.83

Summarized cost rate:

25-year: 2023-47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.90 16.85 16.79

50-year: 2023-72 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.24 17.14 17.05

75-year: 2023-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.51 17.38 17.26

Actuarial balance:

25-year: 2023-47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -2.60 -2.50 -2.41

50-year: 2023-72 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -3.39 -3.24 -3.09

75-year: 2023-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -3.79 -3.61 -3.43

Annual balance for 2097 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -4.35 -4.35 -4.35

Year of combined trust fund reserve depletion . . . . . . . . 2034 2034 2034
Appendices

194

ial balance increases from -2.60 percent to -2.41 percent for the 25-year

period, from -3.39 percent to -3.09 percent for the 50-year period, and from

-3.79 percent to -3.43 percent for the 75-year period. A relatively higher real

interest rate has the effect of discounting more distant future years relatively

more. To the extent that annual cost rates and annual deficits are larger in

later years, a higher interest rate decreases the summarized rates, and a lower

interest rate increases the summarized rates. Each 0.1-percentage-point

increase in the real interest rate increases (improves) the long-range actuarial

balance by about 0.04 percent of taxable payroll.

7. Taxable Ratio

Table VI.D7 shows selected measures of OASDI actuarial status under alternative II with three different assumptions about the ratio of taxable payroll to

OASDI covered earnings (the taxable ratio). Note that covered earnings are

the sum of wages and net self-employment earnings covered by Social Security, and taxable payroll is essentially the amount of covered earnings subject

to the Social Security payroll tax up to the contribution and benefit base

($160,200 for 2023). Under the Trustees’ assumptions, the taxable ratio at

the end of the short-range period (2032) is 81.0 percent, 82.5 percent, and

84.0 percent under alternatives III, II, and I, respectively.

Table VI.D7.—Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Taxable Ratio Assumptions

[As a percentage of taxable payroll]

Valuation period

Taxable ratio in 2032a b

a The taxable ratio is the ratio of taxable payroll to OASDI covered earnings. These concepts are described

in further detail in section V.C.6 of this report.

b The taxable ratio assumptions used for this analysis are consistent with those assumed for the three alternative scenarios. All other assumptions used for this analysis are from alternative II. 

81.0 percent 82.5 percent 84.0 percent

Summarized income rate:

25-year: 2023-47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.37 14.34 14.31

50-year: 2023-72 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.92 13.90 13.88

75-year: 2023-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.80 13.78 13.76

Summarized cost rate:

25-year: 2023-47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.08 16.85 16.61

50-year: 2023-72 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.37 17.14 16.93

75-year: 2023-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.58 17.38 17.19

Actuarial balance:

25-year: 2023-47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -2.71 -2.50 -2.30

50-year: 2023-72 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -3.44 -3.24 -3.05

75-year: 2023-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -3.79 -3.61 -3.43

Annual balance for 2097 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -4.46 -4.35 -4.23

Year of combined trust fund reserve depletion . . . . . . . . 2033 2034 2034
195

Long-Range Sensitivity Analysis

Because the combined employee-employer tax rate of 12.4 percent is

unchanged across all alternatives, the income rate changes a relatively small

amount as the taxable ratio increases, due to changes in taxation of benefits

and the initial fund as a percentage of taxable payroll.

For the 25-year period, the cost rate decreases with increasing taxable ratios,

from 17.08 percent (for a taxable ratio in 2032 of 81.0 percent) to

16.61 percent (for a taxable ratio in 2032 of 84.0 percent). For the 50-year

period, it decreases from 17.37 percent to 16.93 percent and, for the 75-year

period, it decreases from 17.58 percent to 17.19 percent. The actuarial balance increases from -2.71 percent to -2.30 percent for the 25-year period,

from -3.44 percent to -3.05 percent for the 50-year period, and from

-3.79 percent to -3.43 percent for the 75-year period.

The cost rate decreases with an increase in taxable payroll because the

increase in taxable payroll occurs immediately. The increase in benefit

amounts occurs much more gradually as new beneficiaries become entitled.

In addition, the change in the taxable ratio does not affect COLAs or the

national average wage index. Each 1.0 percentage-point increase in the taxable ratio in 2032 increases (improves) the long-range actuarial balance by

about 0.12 percent of taxable payroll.

8. Disability Incidence Rates

Table VI.D8 shows selected measures of OASDI actuarial status on the basis

of alternative II with three different assumptions about future disability incidence rates. Under the Trustees’ assumptions, the ultimate age-sex-adjusted1

incidence rate is 3.8, 4.8, and 5.8 awards per thousand exposed for alternatives I, II, and III, respectively. These ultimate rates are reached by 2032

under all three alternatives. Under the Trustees’ assumptions, incidence rates

by age and sex for all three alternatives vary during the early years of the

projection period before reaching their long-term average values.

 1 Age-sex-adjusted to the disability-exposed population as of the year 2000.
Appendices

196

For the 25-year period, the cost rate increases with increasing disability incidence rates, from 16.53 percent (for the relatively low rates assumed for

alternative I) to 17.15 percent (for the relatively high rates assumed for alternative III). For the 50-year period, it increases from 16.78 percent to

17.50 percent, and for the 75-year period, it increases from 17.01 percent to

17.77 percent. The actuarial balance decreases from -2.20 percent to

-2.79 percent for the 25-year period, from -2.89 percent to -3.58 percent for

the 50-year period, and from -3.25 percent to -3.98 percent for the 75-year

period.

9. Disability Termination Rates

Table VI.D9 shows selected measures of OASDI actuarial status on the basis

of alternative II with three different assumptions about future disability termination rates, including deaths and recoveries. 

Under the Trustees’ assumptions, death rates for disabled-worker beneficiaries for all three alternatives decline throughout the long-range period. The

age-sex-adjusted death rate1 of 28.6 deaths per thousand disabled-worker

beneficiaries in 2022 declines to 21.5, 12.4, and 6.1 deaths per thousand in

2097 for alternatives I, II, and III, respectively. These levels are about

25 percent, 57 percent, and 79 percent lower, respectively, than the level in

Table VI.D8.—Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Disability Incidence Assumptions

[As a percentage of taxable payroll]

Valuation period

Ultimate disability incidence ratea

a The disability incidence rates used for this analysis are consistent with those assumed for the three alternative scenarios. All other assumptions used for this analysis are from alternative II.

3.8 4.8 5.8

Summarized income rate:

25-year: 2023-47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.33 14.34 14.35

50-year: 2023-72 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.89 13.90 13.92

75-year: 2023-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.76 13.78 13.79

Summarized cost rate:

25-year: 2023-47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.53 16.85 17.15

50-year: 2023-72 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.78 17.14 17.50

75-year: 2023-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.01 17.38 17.77

Actuarial balance:

25-year: 2023-47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -2.20 -2.50 -2.79

50-year: 2023-72 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -2.89 -3.24 -3.58

75-year: 2023-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -3.25 -3.61 -3.98

Annual balance for 2097 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -3.92 -4.35 -4.89

Year of combined trust fund reserve depletion . . . . . . . . 2034 2034 2033

 1 Age-sex-adjusted to the disabled-worker population as of the year 2000.
197

Long-Range Sensitivity Analysis

2022. For this sensitivity analysis, total population death rates by age and sex

are assumed to be the same as those used for the alternative II assumptions.

The ultimate age-sex-adjusted recovery rate1 used for this analysis is

12.5 recoveries per thousand disabled-worker beneficiaries for the alternative I assumptions, 10.4 recoveries per thousand disabled-worker beneficiaries for the alternative II assumptions, and 8.3 recoveries per thousand

disabled-worker beneficiaries for the alternative III assumptions.

For the 25-year period, the cost rate increases with decreasing disability termination rates, from 16.79 percent (for the relatively high termination rates

assumed for alternative I) to 16.89 percent (for the relatively low termination

rates assumed for alternative III). For the 50-year period, it increases from

17.07 percent to 17.20 percent, and for the 75-year period, it increases from

17.31 percent to 17.45 percent. The actuarial balance decreases from

-2.45 percent to -2.55 percent for the 25-year period, from -3.18 percent to

-3.29 percent for the 50-year period, and from -3.53 percent to -3.67 percent

for the 75-year period.

 1 Age-sex-adjusted to the disabled-worker population as of the year 2000. The disability recovery rates for

each alternative vary slightly over the last 65 years of the 75-year projection period, so the ultimate rates are

presented as averages for years 2033 through 2097.

Table VI.D9.—Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Disability Termination Assumptions

[As a percentage of taxable payroll]

Valuation period

Disability termination rates

(death; recovery)a

a The disability termination rates used for this analysis are consistent with those assumed for the three alternative scenarios. All other assumptions used for this analysis are from alternative II.

21.5; 12.5 12.4; 10.4 6.1; 8.3

Summarized income rate:

25-year: 2023-47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.34 14.34 14.34

50-year: 2023-72 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.90 13.90 13.90

75-year: 2023-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.77 13.78 13.78

Summarized cost rate:

25-year: 2023-47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.79 16.85 16.89

50-year: 2023-72 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.07 17.14 17.20

75-year: 2023-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.31 17.38 17.45

Actuarial balance:

25-year: 2023-47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -2.45 -2.50 -2.55

50-year: 2023-72 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -3.18 -3.24 -3.29

75-year: 2023-97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -3.53 -3.61 -3.67

Annual balance for 2097 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -4.23 -4.35 -4.50

Year of combined trust fund reserve depletion . . . . . . . . 2034 2034 2034
Appendices

198

E. STOCHASTIC PROJECTIONS AND UNCERTAINTY

Significant uncertainty surrounds the estimates under the intermediate

assumptions, especially for a period as long as 75 years. This appendix presents stochastic projections, a way to illustrate the uncertainty of these estimates. The stochastic projections supplement the traditional methods of

examining such uncertainty.

1. Background

The Trustees have traditionally shown estimates using the low-cost and highcost sets of specified assumptions to illustrate the potential implications of

uncertainty. These low-cost and high-cost estimates provide a range of possible outcomes for the projections. However, they do not provide an indication

of the probability that actual future experience will be inside or outside this

range. This appendix presents the results of a stochastic model that estimates

a probability distribution of future outcomes of the financial status of the

combined OASI and DI Trust Funds. This model was introduced in the 2003

report and enhanced in the 2021 report to include parameter uncertainty for

the expected mean for the key variables described in the next section. 

2. Stochastic Methodology

Other sections of this report provide estimates of the financial status of the

combined OASI and DI Trust Funds using a scenario-based model. For the

scenario-based model, the Trustees use three alternative scenarios (low-cost,

intermediate, and high-cost) that use specific assumptions for key variables.

In general, the Trustees assume that each of these variables will reach an ultimate value at a specific point during the long-range period, and will maintain

that value throughout the remainder of the period. The three alternative scenarios assume separate, specified values for each of these variables. Chapter

V contains more details about each of these assumptions.

This appendix presents estimates of the probability that key measures of

OASDI solvency will fall in certain ranges, based on 5,000 independent stochastic simulations. Each simulation allows key variables to vary throughout

the long-range period. These key variables include total fertility rates,

changes in mortality rates, new arrival lawful permanent resident (LPR) and

other-than-LPR immigration levels, rates of adjustment of status (from otherthan-LPR to LPR), rates of legal emigration (from the population of citizens

and LPRs), changes in the Consumer Price Index, changes in average real

wages, unemployment rates, trust fund real yield rates, and disability incidence and recovery rates. The fluctuation of each variable over time is simu-
199

Stochastic Projections 

lated using historical data and standard time-series techniques. Generally,

each variable is modeled using an equation that: (1) captures a relationship

between current and prior years’ values of the variable, and (2) introduces

random variation based on variation observed in the historical period. For

some variables, the equations also reflect relationships with other variables.

The equations contain parameters that are estimated using historical data for

periods from about 20 years to over 100 years, depending on the nature and

quality of the available data. Each time-series equation is designed so that, in

the absence of random variation over time, the value of the variable for each

year equals its value for the intermediate scenario.1

For each equation in a given simulation, the stochastic model assigns random

variation to (1) year-by-year error term values and (2) simulation-specific

mean term levels that provide variation in the central tendency across simulations. Each simulation produces estimates for all key variables and for the

overall financial status of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds. This

appendix shows the distribution of results from 5,000 simulations of the

model.

Readers should interpret the results from this model with an understanding of

the model’s limitations. Results are sensitive to equation specifications,

degrees of interdependence among variables, and the historical periods used

for estimating model coefficients. For some variables, recent historical variation may not provide a realistic representation of the potential variation for

the future. Also, results would differ if additional variables (such as labor

force participation rates, retirement rates, marriage rates, and divorce rates)

were also allowed to vary randomly. Time-series modeling reflects only what

occurred in the historical period. Future uncertainty exists not only for the

underlying central tendency but also for the frequency and size of occasional

longer-term shifts in the central tendency. Many experts predict, and history

suggests, that the future will likely bring substantial shifts that are not fully

reflected in the historical period used for the current model. As a result, readers should understand that the true range of uncertainty might be larger than

indicated in this appendix.

3. Stochastic Results

This section illustrates the results for the stochastic simulations of two fundamental measures of actuarial status: annual cost rates and trust fund ratios.

 1 More detail on this model, and stochastic modeling in general, is available at 

www.ssa.gov/OACT/stochastic/index.html.
Appendices

200

The latter measure is highlighted in section II.D of this report. Section 4 of

this appendix follows with a comparison of stochastic results to results from

the alternative scenarios for these and other measures, and an analysis of the

differences. 

Figure VI.E1 displays the probability distribution of the year-by-year

OASDI cost rates (that is, cost as a percentage of taxable payroll). The range

of the annual cost rates widens as the projections move further into the

future, which reflects increasing uncertainty. Because there is relatively little

variation in income rates across the 5,000 stochastic simulations, the figure

includes only the income rate for the intermediate scenario. The two outermost cost rate lines in this figure indicate the range within which future

annual cost rates are projected to occur 95 percent of the time (i.e., a 95-percent confidence interval). In other words, the current model estimates that

there is a 2.5 percent probability that the cost rate for a given year will

exceed the upper end of this range and a 2.5 percent probability that it will

fall below the lower end of this range. Other lines in the figure delineate the

80-percent confidence interval and the median cost rate. The median (50th

percentile) cost rate for each year is the rate for which half of the simulated

outcomes are higher and half are lower for that year. These lines do not represent the results of individual stochastic simulations. Instead, for each given

year, they represent the percentile distribution of annual cost rates based on

all stochastic simulations for that year. 
201

Stochastic Projections 

Figure VI.E2 presents the simulated probability distribution of the annual

trust fund ratios for the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds. The lines in this

figure display the median set (50th percentile) of estimated annual trust fund

ratios and delineate the 95-percent and 80-percent confidence intervals estimated for future annual trust fund ratios. Again, none of these lines represent

the path of a single simulation. For each given year, they represent the percentile distribution of trust fund ratios based on all stochastic simulations for

that year. 

Figure VI.E2 shows that the 95-percent confidence interval for the trust fund

reserve depletion year ranges from 2031 to 2040, relatively early in the 75-

year projection period. The figure also shows that there is a 50-percent probability of trust fund reserve depletion by the end of 2033 (the median reserve

depletion year). The median reserve depletion date is late in 2033; the

reserve depletion date for the intermediate scenario is in mid-2034.

 Figure VI.E1.—Long-Range OASDI Cost Rates From Stochastic Modeling

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2023 2033 2043 2053 2063 2073 2083 2093

Calendar year

50%

97.5%

2.5%

90%

10%

Income Rate for the Intermediate 

Scenario
Appendices

202

4. Comparison of Results: Stochastic to Low-Cost, Intermediate, and

High-Cost Alternative Scenarios

This section compares results from two different approaches for illustrating

ranges of uncertainty in measures of trust fund actuarial status. One approach

uses results from the low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost alternative scenarios. The other approach uses distributions of results from the stochastic simulations. Each of these approaches provides insights into uncertainty.

Comparing the results requires an understanding of fundamental differences

in the approaches. 

One fundamental difference relates to the presentation of distributional

results. Figure VI.E3 shows projected OASDI annual cost rates for the lowcost, intermediate, and high-cost alternative scenarios along with the annual

cost rates at the 2.5th percentile, 50th percentile, and 97.5th percentile for the

stochastic simulations. While all values on each line for the alternative scenarios are results from a single specified scenario, the values on each stochastic line may be results from different simulations for different years. The

one stochastic simulation (from the 5,000 simulations) that yields results

closest to a particular percentile for one projected year may yield results that

 Figure VI.E2.—Long-Range OASDI Trust Fund Ratios From Stochastic Modeling

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

2023 2033 2043 2053 2063 2073 2083 2093

Calendar year

50%

97.5%

2.5%

90%

10%
203

Stochastic Projections 

are distant from that percentile in another projected year. Because each stochastic simulation shows substantial variability from year to year, the range

shown between the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles is broader than would be

seen if simulations followed a smooth trend like in the alternative scenarios. 

Both the alternative scenarios and the stochastic results suggest that the

range of potential cost rates above the central levels (those for the intermediate scenario and for the stochastic median, respectively) is larger than the

range below these central results. The difference between the central results

and the higher cost levels (the high-cost alternative scenario and the upper

end of the 95-percent confidence range, respectively) is about 1.6 to

1.8 times as large as the difference between the central and lower cost levels

for both models by the end of the projection period.

Another fundamental difference between the alternative scenarios and the

stochastic simulations is the method of assigning values for assumptions. For

the alternative scenarios, specific values are assigned for each of the key

demographic, economic, and program-specific variables. The high-cost alternative scenario uses parameter values that increase estimated annual cost as a

percent of payroll, while the low-cost alternative scenario uses parameter

 Figure VI.E3.—OASDI Cost Rates: Comparison of Stochastic to Low-Cost, Intermediate, 

and High-Cost Alternative Scenarios

[As a percentage of taxable payroll]

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2023 2033 2043 2053 2063 2073 2083 2093

Calendar year

Low-Cost

Intermediate

High-Cost

Stochastic 2.5%

Stochastic 50%

Stochastic 97.5%
Appendices

204

values that decrease annual cost as a percent of payroll. (One parameter, the

interest rate, has no effect on annual cost as a percent of payroll for either the

alternative scenarios or the stochastic simulations.) In contrast, the stochastic

method independently assigns random variation to each of the key demographic and economic variables for each year in each of the 5,000 stochastic

simulations. For each of the stochastic simulations, the assigned values for

different variables result in varying and often offsetting effects on projected

cost as a percent of payroll, with some tending toward higher cost and some

tending toward lower cost. This difference tends to narrow the range of cost

as a percent of payroll across the 95-percent confidence interval. 

It is important to understand that the stochastic model’s 95-percent confidence intervals for any summary measure of trust fund finances would tend

to be narrower than the range produced for the low-cost and high-cost alternative scenarios, even if the stochastic model’s 95-percent confidence interval for annual cost rates were identical to the range defined by the low-cost

and high-cost scenarios. This is true because summary measures of trust fund

finances depend on cost rates for many years, and the probability that annual

cost rates, on average for individual stochastic simulations, will be at least as

low (high) as the 2.5 (97.5) percentile line is significantly lower than

2.5 percent. As a result, the relationship between the ranges presented for

annual cost rates and summary measures of trust fund finances is fundamentally different for the stochastic model than it is for the low-cost and highcost alternative scenarios.

Figure VI.E4 compares the ranges of trust fund (unfunded obligation) ratios

for the alternative scenarios to the 95-percent confidence interval of the stochastic simulations. This figure extends figure VI.E2 to show unfunded obligation ratios, expressed as negative values below the zero percent line. An

unfunded obligation ratio is the ratio of the unfunded obligation accumulated

through the beginning of the year to the cost for that year.
205

Stochastic Projections 

As mentioned above, a summary measure that accumulates annual values

tends to smooth the kind of annual fluctuations that occur in stochastic simulations. Therefore, one might expect the range across the stochastic confidence interval for trust fund (unfunded obligation) ratios to be narrower and

fall within the range seen across the high-cost and low-cost alternative scenarios, as it does for the actuarial balance measure. But this is not the case,

largely due to the way interest rates are assigned. 

For the stochastic model, real interest rates for each simulation are assigned

to be essentially independent of other variables, so the rate for compounding

of trust fund reserves (unfunded obligations) is essentially uncorrelated with

the level of cost as a percent of payroll. On the other hand, real interest rates

are assigned to be higher for the low-cost alternative scenario and lower for

the high-cost alternative scenario. High interest rates raise the level of the

positive trust fund ratio in the low-cost alternative scenario somewhat, but

this effect is limited because the magnitude of reserves is small. However,

low interest rates substantially reduce the magnitude of the unfunded obligation ratio for the high-cost alternative scenario because the magnitude of

 Figure VI.E4.—OASDI Trust Fund (Unfunded Obligation) Ratios: Comparison of 

Stochastic to Low-Cost, Intermediate, and High-Cost Alternative Scenariosa

[Trust fund reserves (unfunded obligation) as a percentage of annual cost]

a An unfunded obligation, shown as a negative value in this figure, is equivalent to the amount the trust

funds would need to have borrowed to date in order to pay all scheduled benefits (on a timely basis) after

trust fund reserves are depleted. Note that current law does not permit the trust funds to borrow.

-6,500%

-6,000%

-5,500%

-5,000%

-4,500%

-4,000%

-3,500%

-3,000%

-2,500%

-2,000%

-1,500%

-1,000%

-500%

0%

500%

1,000%

2023 2033 2043 2053 2063 2073 2083 2093

Calendar year

Low-Cost

Intermediate

High-Cost

Stochastic 2.5%

Stochastic 50%

Stochastic 97.5%

Trust fund reserves (positive)

Unfunded obligation (negative)
Appendices

206

unfunded obligations is relatively large. As a result, the trust fund (unfunded

obligation) ratios are shifted, albeit unevenly, higher (or less negative) for

both the high-cost and low-cost alternative scenarios relative to those of the

stochastic simulations. 

This interest rate effect on the alternative scenarios is not as evident for some

other summary measures of actuarial status, such as the actuarial balance.

Because the actuarial balance reflects the cumulative effects of interest in

both its numerator and denominator, the interest rate effect is much less pronounced. In contrast, cumulative interest affects only the numerator of the

trust fund (unfunded obligation) ratio. There is also no significant interest

rate effect on the trust fund depletion date.

Other factors also contribute, to varying degrees, to the difference in ranges

between the results of the alternative scenarios and the stochastic simulations. The contrasts in results and methods do not mean that either approach

to illustrating ranges of uncertainty is superior to the other. The ranges are

different and explainable. 

Table VI.E1 displays long-range actuarial estimates for the combined

OASDI program using the two methods of illustrating uncertainty: alternative scenarios and stochastic simulations. The table shows scenario-based

estimates for the intermediate, low-cost, and high-cost assumptions. It also

shows stochastic estimates for the median (50th percentile) and for the

80-percent and 95-percent confidence intervals. Each individual stochastic

estimate in the table is the level at that percentile from the distribution of the

5,000 simulations. For each given percentile, the values in the table for each

long-range actuarial measure are generally from different stochastic simulations.

The median stochastic estimates displayed in table VI.E1 are similar to the

intermediate scenario-based estimates. The median estimate of the longrange actuarial balance is -3.69 percent of taxable payroll, about

0.08 percentage point lower (more negative) than projected in the intermediate scenario. The median estimate for the open-group unfunded obligation is

$22.8 trillion, about $0.4 trillion larger than the $22.4 trillion estimate in the

intermediate scenario. The median first projected year for which cost

exceeds non-interest income (as it did in 2010 through 2022), and remains in

excess of non-interest income throughout the remainder of the long-range

period, is 2023. This is the same year as projected in the intermediate scenario. The median projected date at which trust fund reserves first become

depleted is late in 2033; the reserve depletion date for the intermediate scenario is mid-2034. The median estimates of the annual cost rate for the

75th year of the projection period are 18.25 percent of taxable payroll and
207

Stochastic Projections 

6.14 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). The comparable estimates in

the intermediate scenario are 17.75 percent of payroll and 5.98 percent of

GDP.

For three measures in table VI.E1 (the actuarial balance, the first projected

year cost exceeds non-interest income and remains in excess through 2097,

and the first year trust fund reserves become depleted), the 95-percent stochastic confidence interval falls within the range defined by the low-cost and

high-cost scenarios. For the remaining three measures (the open-group

unfunded obligation, the annual cost in the 75th year as a percent of taxable

payroll, and the annual cost in the 75th year as a percent of GDP), one or

both of the bounds of the 95-percent stochastic confidence interval fall outside the range defined by the low-cost and high-cost scenarios.

Table VI.E1.—Long-Range Estimates Relating to the Actuarial Status of

the Combined OASDI Program

[Comparison of scenario-based and stochastic results]

Traditional

scenario-based model Stochastic model

IntermediateLowcostHighcost

Median

50th

percentile

80-percent

confidence interval

95-percent

confidence interval

10th

percentile

90th

percentile

2.5th

percentile

97.5th

percentile

Actuarial balance . . . . . . -3.61 -0.10 -8.37 -3.69 -5.75 -2.03 -7.17 -1.18

Open-group unfunded 

obligation 

(in trillions) . . . . . . . . . $22.4 -$.4 $42.9 $22.8 $10.5 $44.3 $5.8 $60.9

First projected year cost 

exceeds non-interest 

income and remains

in excess 

through 2097. . . . . . . . 2023 a 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 a

a Cost is projected to exceed non-interest income for a temporary period, before falling below non-interest

income by the end of the projection period.

First year trust fund 

reserves become 

depleted b . . . . . . . . . .

b For the low-cost scenario and for some stochastic simulations, the first year in which trust fund reserves

become depleted does not indicate a permanent depletion of reserves.

2034 2067 2031 2033 2032 2037 2031 2040

Annual cost in 75th year 

(percent of taxable

payroll) . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.75 12.34 27.48 18.25 14.29 23.89 12.52 27.93

Annual cost in 75th year 

(percent of GDP). . . . . 5.98 4.52 8.54 6.14 4.84 7.97 4.25 9.21
Appendices

208

F. INFINITE HORIZON PROJECTIONS

Another measure of trust fund financial status is the infinite horizon

unfunded obligation, which takes account of all past and future annual balances, even those after the next 75 years. The extension of the time period

past 75 years assumes that the current law for the OASDI program and the

demographic and economic trends used for the 75-year projection continue

indefinitely.

Table VI.F1 shows that the OASDI open-group unfunded obligation over the

infinite horizon is $65.9 trillion in present value, which is $43.4 trillion

larger than for the 75-year period. The $43.4 trillion increment reflects a significant financing gap projected for OASDI for years after 2097 into perpetuity. Of course, the degree of uncertainty associated with estimates increases

substantially for years further in the future.

The $65.9 trillion infinite horizon open-group unfunded obligation is equal

to 4.6 percent of taxable payroll or 1.4 percent of GDP over the same period.

These relative measures of the unfunded obligation over the infinite horizon

express its magnitude in relation to the resources potentially available to

finance the shortfall.

The summarized shortfalls for the 75-year period and through the infinite

horizon both reflect annual cash-flow shortfalls for all years after trust fund

reserve depletion. The annual shortfalls after trust fund reserve depletion rise

slowly and reflect increases in life expectancy. The summarized shortfalls

over the infinite horizon, as percentages of taxable payroll and GDP, are

larger than the shortfalls for the 75-year period.

To illustrate the magnitude of the projected infinite horizon shortfall, consider that it could be eliminated with additional revenue equivalent to an

immediate increase in the combined payroll tax rate from 12.4 percent to

about 17.0 percent,1 or with cost reductions equivalent to an immediate and

permanent reduction in benefits for all current and future beneficiaries by

about 26.9 percent. 

 1 While an increase in the payroll tax rate would cause some behavioral changes in earnings and ensuing

changes in benefit levels, such changes are not included in the calculations because they are assumed to have

roughly offsetting effects on OASDI actuarial status over the infinite horizon.
209

Infinite Horizon Projections 

Notes:

1. The present values of future taxable payroll for 2023-97 and for 2023 through the infinite horizon are 

$655.0 trillion and $1,439.1 trillion, respectively.

2. The present values of GDP for 2023-97 and for 2023 through the infinite horizon are $1,865.3 trillion and 

$4,612.7 trillion, respectively. Present values of GDP shown in the Medicare Trustees Report differ slightly 

due to the use of discount rates that are specific to each program’s trust fund holdings.

Last year, the Trustees projected that the infinite horizon unfunded obligation

was $61.8 trillion in present value discounted to January 1, 2022. If the

assumptions, methods, and starting values had not changed, moving the valuation date forward by 1 year to January 1, 2023 would have discounted

future values by 1 year less, thus increasing the measured unfunded obligation by about $1.4 trillion, to $63.2 trillion. The net effects of changes in

assumptions, methods, law, and starting values increased the infinite horizon

unfunded obligation by an additional $2.7 trillion. This net increase occurred

for a variety of reasons, particularly changes in recent economic data and

near-term assumptions, and changes in programmatic data and methods. See

section IV.B.6 for details regarding changes in law, data, methods, and

assumptions.

Compared to last year’s report, the unfunded obligation over the infinite

horizon in this year’s report increased by 0.1 percentage point as both a share

of taxable payroll and a share of GDP. The unfunded obligation over the 75-

year projection period increased by 0.2 percentage point as a share of taxable

payroll and increased by 0.1 percentage point as a share of GDP. 

a. Unfunded Obligations for Past, Current, and Future Participants

Table VI.F2 separates the components of the infinite horizon unfunded obligation (with the exception of General Fund reimbursements) among past,

current, and future participants. The table does not separate past General

Fund reimbursements among participants because there is no clear basis for

attributing the reimbursements across generations.

Table VI.F1.—Unfunded OASDI Obligations Through the Infinite Horizon and 

the 75-Year Projection Period, Based on Intermediate Assumptions

[Present values as of January 1, 2023; dollar amounts in trillions]

Present

value

Expressed as a percentage

of future payroll and GDP

Taxable

payroll GDP

Unfunded obligation through the infinite horizona . . . . . . . . . . . . 

a Present value of future cost less future non-interest income, reduced by the amount of trust fund asset

reserves at the beginning of 2023. Expressed as a percentage of payroll and GDP for the period 2023 through

the infinite horizon.

$65.9 4.6 1.4

Unfunded obligation through 2097b . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

b Present value of future cost less future non-interest income through 2097, reduced by the amount of trust

fund reserves at the beginning of 2023. Expressed as a percentage of payroll and GDP for the period 2023

through 2097.

22.4 3.4 1.2
Appendices

210

Past participants are defined as those no longer alive as of the valuation date.

Current participants are those age 15 and older as of 2023. Future participants are those under age 15 or not yet born. 

The excess of the present value of cost for past and current participants over

the present value of dedicated tax income for past and current participants

produces an unfunded obligation for past and current participants of

$49.1 trillion. Table VI.F2 also shows an unfunded obligation of

$48.4 trillion for past and current participants, including past and future General Fund reimbursements. Future participants are scheduled to pay dedicated taxes of $17.5 trillion less into the system than the cost of their

scheduled benefits ($148.8 trillion of dedicated tax income as compared to

$166.3 trillion of cost). The unfunded obligation for all participants through

the infinite horizon thus equals $65.9 trillion.

Making Social Security solvent over the infinite horizon requires some combination of increased revenue or reduced benefits for current and future participants amounting to $65.9 trillion in present value, 4.6 percent of future

taxable payroll, or 1.4 percent of future GDP.
211

Infinite Horizon Projections 

Notes:

1. The present value of future taxable payroll for 2023 through the infinite horizon is $1,439.1 trillion.

2. The present value of GDP for 2023 through the infinite horizon is $4,612.7 trillion.

3. Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Table VI.F2.—Present Values Through the Infinite Horizon 

for Various Categories of Program Participants, Based on Intermediate Assumptions

[Present values as of January 1, 2023; dollar amounts in trillions]

Present

value

Expressed as a 

percentage of future 

payroll and GDP

Taxable

payroll GDP

Present value of past cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $76.4 5.3 1.7

Less present value of past dedicated tax income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78.5 5.5 1.7

Plus present value of future cost for current participants . . . . . . . . . . . 95.7 6.6 2.1

Less present value of future dedicated tax income for current 

participants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44.4 3.1 1.0

Equals unfunded obligation for past and current participants 

excluding General Fund reimbursements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49.1 3.4 1.1

Less present value of past General Fund reimbursementsa . . . . . . . . . . .7 b c

Less present value of future General Fund reimbursements through 

the infinite horizona . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . dbc

Equals unfunded obligation for past and current participants 

including General Fund reimbursements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48.4 3.4 1.0

Plus present value of cost for future participants through the infinite 

horizon. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166.3 11.6 3.6

Less present value of dedicated tax income for future participants 

through the infinite horizon. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148.8 10.3 3.2

Equals unfunded obligation for all participants through the infinite 

horizon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65.9 4.6 1.4

a Distribution of General Fund reimbursements among past, current, and future participants cannot be determined.

b Less than 0.05 percent of taxable payroll.

c Less than 0.05 percent of GDP.

d Less than $50 billion.
Appendices

212

G. ESTIMATES FOR OASDI AND HI, SEPARATE AND COMBINED

In this appendix, the Trustees present long-range actuarial estimates for the

OASDI and Hospital Insurance (HI) programs both separately and on a combined basis. These estimates facilitate analysis of the adequacy of the income

and asset reserves of these programs relative to their cost under current law.

This appendix does not include estimates for the Supplementary Medical

Insurance (SMI) program because adequate financing is guaranteed in the

law and because the SMI program is not financed through a payroll tax. For

more information on Medicare estimates, please see the 2023 Medicare

Trustees Report.

The information in this appendix on combined operations, while significant,

should not obscure the analysis of the financial status of the individual trust

funds, which are legally separate and cannot be commingled. In addition, the

factors which determine the costs of the OASI, DI, and HI programs differ

substantially.

1. Estimates as a Percentage of Taxable Payroll

Comparing cost and income rates for the OASDI and HI programs as percentages of taxable payroll requires a note of caution. The taxable payrolls

for the HI program are larger than those for the OASDI program because:

(1) a larger maximum taxable amount was established for the HI program in

1991, with the maximum eliminated altogether for the HI program in 1994;

(2) larger proportions of Federal, State, and local government employees are

covered under the HI program; and (3) the earnings of railroad workers are

included directly in the HI taxable payroll but are not included in the OASDI

taxable payroll. (Railroad worker contributions for the equivalent of OASDI

benefits are accounted for in a net interchange that occurs annually between

the OASDI and Railroad Retirement programs.) As a result, the HI taxable

payroll is 25 percent larger than the OASDI taxable payroll on average over

the long-range period.

As with the OASI and DI Trust Funds, income to the HI Trust Fund comes

primarily from contributions paid by employees, employers, and selfemployed persons. Table VI.G1 shows the OASDI and HI contribution rates

that are authorized in the Federal Insurance Contributions Act.
213

OASDI and HI: Percent of Payroll

Table VI.G2 shows the Trustees’ estimates of annual income rates and cost

rates for the OASDI program and the HI program under the intermediate,

low-cost, and high-cost sets of assumptions described earlier in this report.

The income rates reflect the payroll tax rates shown in table VI.G1, revenue

from taxation of scheduled OASDI benefits for both the OASDI and HI

Table VI.G1.—Payroll Tax Contribution Rates for the OASDI and HI Programs

[In percent]

Calendar years

Employees and employers, 

combineda

a Except as noted below, the combined employee/employer rate is divided equally between employees and

employers.

Employees 

only Self employedb

b Beginning in 1990, self-employed persons receive a deduction, for purposes of computing their net earnings, equal to half of the combined OASDI and HI contributions that would be payable without regard to the

contribution and benefit base. The OASDI contribution rate then applies to net earnings after this deduction,

but subject to the OASDI base.

OASDI

up to basec

c The payroll tax on earnings for the OASDI program applies to annual earnings up to a contribution and

benefit base indexed to the average wage level. The base is $160,200 for 2023.

HI

all earningsd

d Prior to 1994, the payroll tax on earnings for the HI program applied to annual earnings up to a contribution base. The HI contribution base was eliminated beginning in 1994.

HI

over limite

e Starting with Federal personal income tax returns for tax year 2013, earned income exceeding $200,000 for

individual filers and $250,000 for married couples filing jointly is subject to an additional HI tax of

0.9 percent. These income limits are not indexed after 2013.

OASDI

up to basec HIall earningsd HIover limite

1966 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.70 0.70 — 5.80 0.35 —

1967 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.80 1.00 — 5.90 .50 —

1968 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.60 1.20 — 5.80 .60 —

1969-70 . . . . . . . . . . 8.40 1.20 — 6.30 .60 —

1971-72 . . . . . . . . . . 9.20 1.20 — 6.90 .60 —

1973 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.70 2.00 — 7.00 1.00 —

1974-77 . . . . . . . . . . 9.90 1.80 — 7.00 .90 —

1978 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.10 2.00 — 7.10 1.00 —

1979-80 . . . . . . . . . . 10.16 2.10 — 7.05 1.05 —

1981 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.70 2.60 — 8.00 1.30 —

1982-83 . . . . . . . . . . 10.80 2.60 — 8.05 1.30 —

1984f. . . . . . . . . . . . .

f In 1984 only, employees received an immediate credit of 0.3 percent of taxable wages against their OASDI

payroll tax contributions. The self-employed received similar credits of 2.7 percent, 2.3 percent, and

2.0 percent against their combined OASDI and Hospital Insurance (HI) contributions on net earnings from

self-employment in 1984, 1985, and 1986-89, respectively. The General Fund of the Treasury reimbursed

the trust funds for these credits. 

11.40 2.60 — 11.40 2.60 —

1985f . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.40 2.70 — 11.40 2.70 —

1986-87f. . . . . . . . . . 11.40 2.90 — 11.40 2.90 —

1988-89f. . . . . . . . . . 12.12 2.90 — 12.12 2.90 —

1990-2010g. . . . . . . .

g Public Law 111-147 exempted most employers from paying the employer share of OASDI payroll tax on

wages paid during the period March 19, 2010 through December 31, 2010 to certain qualified individuals

hired after February 3, 2010. The General Fund of the Treasury reimbursed the trust funds for the payroll tax

revenue forgone under this law.

12.40 2.90 — 12.40 2.90 —

2011-2012h. . . . . . . .

h Public Law 111-312, Public Law 112-78, and Public Law 112-96 reduced the OASDI payroll tax rate for

2011 and 2012 by 2 percentage points for employees and for self-employed workers. The General Fund of

the Treasury reimbursed the trust funds for the payroll tax revenue forgone under these laws.

10.40 2.90 — 10.40 2.90 —

2013 and later. . . . . . 12.40 2.90 0.90 12.40 2.90 0.90
Appendices

214

Trust Funds, and any reimbursements from the General Fund of the Treasury.

For the HI program, the income rates also reflect: (1) the additional 0.9-percent tax on employees for relatively high earnings and the portion of total

payroll to which the 0.9-percent rate applies, (2) premium revenues, and

(3) monies from fraud and abuse control activities. Annual income and cost

rates indicate the cash-flow operation of the programs. Therefore, income

rates exclude interest earned on trust fund asset reserves. Table VI.G2 also

shows annual balances, which are the differences between annual income

rates and cost rates.

The Trustees project that the OASDI and HI cost rates will rise generally

above current levels under the intermediate and high-cost sets of assumptions. The greatest increase occurs from 2023 to about 2040 under the intermediate and high-cost assumptions for OASDI and the intermediate

assumptions for HI, and from 2023 to 2060 under the high-cost assumptions

for HI. Under the intermediate assumptions, the OASDI cost rate increases

by 22 percent from its current level by 2097, while under the high-cost

assumptions, the cost rate increases by 84 percent by 2097. For HI, cost rates

increase by 37 percent and 177 percent from 2023 to 2097 under the intermediate and high-cost assumptions, respectively. Under the low-cost assumptions, the OASDI and HI cost rates decrease from 2023 to 2097 by

14 percent and 36 percent, respectively. 

The Trustees project annual deficits for every year of the projection period

for both the OASDI and HI programs under the high-cost assumptions and

for OASDI under the intermediate assumptions. Under the intermediate

assumptions, HI annual balances are projected to be positive in 2023 and

2024 and negative and decreasing from 2025 through 2044. Thereafter, HI

annual balances slowly increase (become less negative). Under the low-cost

assumptions, OASDI annual balances are negative through 2081, and are

positive and mostly increasing thereafter, reaching 0.74 percent of payroll for

2097. HI annual balances as a percent of payroll are positive and mostly

increasing throughout the projection period under the low-cost assumptions,

reaching 2.24 percent of HI taxable payroll by 2097.
215

OASDI and HI: Percent of Payroll

Table VI.G2.—OASDI and HI Annual Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances,

Calendar Years 2023-2100

[As a percentage of taxable payrolla]

Calendar year

OASDI HI

Income

rate

Cost

rateb Balanceb Incomerate

Cost

rate Balance

Intermediate:

2023 . . . . . . . . . . 13.29 14.53 -1.24 3.43 3.40 0.03

2024 . . . . . . . . . . 12.89 14.87 -1.98 3.44 3.41 .02

2025 . . . . . . . . . . 12.97 15.04 -2.07 3.45 3.50 -.05

2026 . . . . . . . . . . 13.08 15.23 -2.15 3.52 3.59 -.07

2027 . . . . . . . . . . 13.09 15.38 -2.29 3.55 3.70 -.15

2028 . . . . . . . . . . 13.13 15.55 -2.42 3.57 3.81 -.24

2029 . . . . . . . . . . 13.16 15.72 -2.56 3.60 3.93 -.33

2030 . . . . . . . . . . 13.18 15.87 -2.69 3.62 4.02 -.40

2031 . . . . . . . . . . 13.21 16.00 -2.79 3.65 4.11 -.46

2032 . . . . . . . . . . 13.24 16.14 -2.91 3.68 4.22 -.54

2035 . . . . . . . . . . 13.27 16.48 -3.21 3.75 4.50 -.75

2040 . . . . . . . . . . 13.30 16.78 -3.48 3.83 4.71 -.89

2045 . . . . . . . . . . 13.31 16.86 -3.55 3.89 4.81 -.92

2050 . . . . . . . . . . 13.32 16.99 -3.67 3.96 4.83 -.87

2055 . . . . . . . . . . 13.34 17.23 -3.89 4.03 4.81 -.78

2060 . . . . . . . . . . 13.37 17.62 -4.24 4.11 4.81 -.70

2065 . . . . . . . . . . 13.40 17.95 -4.54 4.18 4.85 -.66

2070 . . . . . . . . . . 13.42 18.23 -4.81 4.26 4.89 -.64

2075 . . . . . . . . . . 13.44 18.46 -5.02 4.32 4.92 -.60

2080 . . . . . . . . . . 13.45 18.47 -5.02 4.37 4.90 -.54

2085 . . . . . . . . . . 13.43 18.23 -4.79 4.40 4.85 -.45

2090 . . . . . . . . . . 13.41 17.89 -4.48 4.43 4.77 -.35

2095 . . . . . . . . . . 13.40 17.74 -4.34 4.45 4.69 -.24

2100 . . . . . . . . . . 13.41 17.83 -4.42 4.49 4.60 -.12

Low-cost:

2023 . . . . . . . . . . 13.22 14.34 -1.12 3.42 3.30 .12

2024 . . . . . . . . . . 12.90 14.27 -1.38 3.42 3.19 .23

2025 . . . . . . . . . . 12.93 14.15 -1.22 3.43 3.21 .23

2026 . . . . . . . . . . 13.02 14.11 -1.08 3.50 3.22 .27

2027 . . . . . . . . . . 13.03 14.05 -1.03 3.52 3.25 .26

2028 . . . . . . . . . . 13.05 14.02 -.97 3.54 3.28 .25

2029 . . . . . . . . . . 13.07 14.00 -.93 3.56 3.32 .24

2030 . . . . . . . . . . 13.09 13.97 -.88 3.58 3.33 .25

2031 . . . . . . . . . . 13.10 13.93 -.82 3.60 3.33 .27

2032 . . . . . . . . . . 13.11 13.90 -.78 3.63 3.35 .28

2035 . . . . . . . . . . 13.13 13.90 -.77 3.69 3.36 .34

2040 . . . . . . . . . . 13.14 13.80 -.66 3.78 3.18 .60

2045 . . . . . . . . . . 13.13 13.56 -.43 3.85 2.94 .91

2050 . . . . . . . . . . 13.13 13.39 -.27 3.92 2.68 1.25

2055 . . . . . . . . . . 13.13 13.38 -.25 4.00 2.46 1.54

2060 . . . . . . . . . . 13.15 13.51 -.36 4.08 2.32 1.75

2065 . . . . . . . . . . 13.16 13.58 -.42 4.14 2.25 1.89

2070 . . . . . . . . . . 13.16 13.58 -.42 4.20 2.23 1.97

2075 . . . . . . . . . . 13.16 13.53 -.37 4.25 2.24 2.01

2080 . . . . . . . . . . 13.14 13.27 -.12 4.28 2.24 2.05

2085 . . . . . . . . . . 13.12 12.83 .29 4.30 2.21 2.09

2090 . . . . . . . . . . 13.09 12.41 .68 4.32 2.18 2.14

2095 . . . . . . . . . . 13.08 12.30 .78 4.35 2.14 2.21

2100 . . . . . . . . . . 13.09 12.45 .64 4.39 2.01 2.38
Appendices

216

Notes:

1. The income rate excludes interest income.

2. The Trustees show income and cost estimates generally on a cash basis for the OASDI program and on an

incurred basis for the HI program.

3. Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Table VI.G3 shows summarized values over the 25-year, 50-year, and

75-year valuation periods. For each of those periods, the summarized income

rates include beginning trust fund asset reserves, and the summarized cost

rates include the cost of accumulating an ending fund reserve equal to

100 percent of annual cost at the end of the period.

High-cost:

2023 . . . . . . . . . . 13.41 14.91 -1.49 3.43 3.55 -0.12

2024 . . . . . . . . . . 12.82 15.61 -2.79 3.45 3.67 -.22

2025 . . . . . . . . . . 13.02 16.04 -3.02 3.47 3.83 -.35

2026 . . . . . . . . . . 13.13 16.30 -3.17 3.55 3.99 -.44

2027 . . . . . . . . . . 13.15 16.58 -3.42 3.58 4.18 -.60

2028 . . . . . . . . . . 13.20 16.94 -3.74 3.61 4.39 -.78

2029 . . . . . . . . . . 13.24 17.31 -4.07 3.64 4.61 -.97

2030 . . . . . . . . . . 13.28 17.69 -4.41 3.67 4.80 -1.13

2031 . . . . . . . . . . 13.32 18.05 -4.73 3.71 5.00 -1.29

2032 . . . . . . . . . . 13.36 18.43 -5.07 3.75 5.22 -1.48

2035 . . . . . . . . . . 13.41 19.24 -5.83 3.82 5.88 -2.06

2040 . . . . . . . . . . 13.48 20.24 -6.76 3.91 6.75 -2.84

2045 . . . . . . . . . . 13.52 21.00 -7.48 3.98 7.58 -3.60

2050 . . . . . . . . . . 13.58 21.81 -8.23 4.06 8.40 -4.34

2055 . . . . . . . . . . 13.63 22.69 -9.06 4.14 9.06 -4.92

2060 . . . . . . . . . . 13.70 23.68 -9.98 4.23 9.62 -5.39

2065 . . . . . . . . . . 13.77 24.60 -10.83 4.31 10.06 -5.74

2070 . . . . . . . . . . 13.83 25.52 -11.69 4.40 10.33 -5.93

2075 . . . . . . . . . . 13.89 26.43 -12.53 4.48 10.39 -5.92

2080 . . . . . . . . . . 13.94 27.12 -13.18 4.55 10.36 -5.81

2085 . . . . . . . . . . 13.97 27.51 -13.53 4.61 10.24 -5.63

2090 . . . . . . . . . . 13.98 27.56 -13.58 4.65 10.08 -5.43

2095 . . . . . . . . . . 13.98 27.50 -13.52 4.68 9.92 -5.23

2100 . . . . . . . . . . 13.98 27.51 -13.53 4.72 10.22 -5.50

a The taxable payroll for HI is significantly larger than the taxable payroll for OASDI because the HI taxable

maximum amount was eliminated beginning in 1994, and because HI covers all Federal civilian employees,

all State and local government employees hired after April 1, 1986, and railroad employees.

b OASDI benefit payments which were scheduled to be paid on January 3 for some past and future years

were actually paid on December 31 as required by the statutory provision for early delivery of benefit payments when the normal payment delivery date is a Saturday, Sunday, or legal public holiday. For comparability with the values for historical years and the projections in this report, all trust fund operations and asset

reserves reflect the 12 months of benefits scheduled for payment each year.

Table VI.G2.—OASDI and HI Annual Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances,

Calendar Years 2023-2100 (Cont.)

[As a percentage of taxable payrolla]

Calendar year

OASDI HI

Income

rate

Cost

rateb Balanceb Incomerate

Cost

rate Balance
217

OASDI and HI: Percent of Payroll

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

The Trustees project that the OASDI and HI programs will each experience

large actuarial deficits for the 25-year, 50-year, and 75-year valuation periods

under the high-cost assumptions. Actuarial deficits under the intermediate

assumptions are smaller than those for the high-cost assumptions for all three

valuation periods. Under the low-cost assumptions, the OASDI program has

relatively small actuarial deficits for all three valuation periods, while the HI

program has positive actuarial balances for all three valuation periods.

Table VI.G3.—Summarized OASDI and HI Income Rates and Cost Rates for Valuation 

Periods,a Calendar Years 2023-2097

[As a percentage of taxable payrollb]

Valuation

period 

OASDI HI

Income

rate

 Cost

ratec Actuarialbalance

Income

rate

 Cost

rate

Actuarial

balance

Intermediate:

25-year:

2023-47 . . . . . . 14.34 16.85 -2.50 3.77 4.48 -0.70

50-year:

2023-72 . . . . . . 13.90 17.14 -3.24 3.92 4.63 -.70

75-year:

2023-97 . . . . . . 13.78 17.38 -3.61 4.05 4.67 -.62

Low-cost:

25-year:

2023-47 . . . . . . 14.10 14.42 -.31 3.73 3.32 .42

50-year:

2023-72 . . . . . . 13.65 13.94 -.29 3.89 2.86 1.04

75-year:

2023-97 . . . . . . 13.49 13.59 -.10 4.02 2.65 1.37

High-cost:

25-year:

2023-47 . . . . . . 14.60 19.49 -4.89 3.84 5.98 -2.15

50-year:

2023-72 . . . . . . 14.22 21.18 -6.97 4.00 7.46 -3.46

75-year:

2023-97 . . . . . . 14.16 22.52 -8.37 4.14 8.08 -3.94

a Income rates include beginning trust fund asset reserves and cost rates include the cost of reaching an ending target trust fund equal to 100 percent of annual cost at the end of the period.

b The taxable payroll for HI is significantly larger than the taxable payroll for OASDI because the HI taxable

maximum amount was eliminated beginning 1994, and because HI covers all Federal civilian employees, all

State and local government employees hired after April 1, 1986, and railroad employees.

c OASDI benefit payments which were scheduled to be paid on January 3 for some past and future years

were actually paid on December 31 as required by the statutory provision for early delivery of benefit payments when the normal payment delivery date is a Saturday, Sunday, or legal public holiday. For comparability with the values for historical years and the projections in this report, all trust fund operations and asset

reserves reflect the 12 months of benefits scheduled for payment each year.
Appendices

218

2. Estimates as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product

This section presents long-range projections of the operations of the combined Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance (OASI and

DI) Trust Funds and of the Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund, expressed as

a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP). While expressing fund operations as a percentage of taxable payroll is a very useful approach for assessing the financial status of the programs (see section IV.B.1), expressing them

as a percentage of the total value of goods and services produced in the

United States provides an additional perspective.

Table VI.G4 shows non-interest income, total cost, and the resulting balance

of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, of the HI Trust Fund, and of the

combined OASI, DI, and HI Trust Funds, expressed as percentages of GDP

on the basis of each of the three alternative sets of assumptions. Table VI.G4

also contains estimates of GDP. For OASDI, non-interest income consists of

payroll tax contributions, proceeds from taxation of scheduled OASDI benefits, and any reimbursements from the General Fund of the Treasury. Cost

consists of scheduled benefits, administrative expenses, financial interchange

with the Railroad Retirement program, and payments for vocational rehabilitation services for disabled beneficiaries. For HI, non-interest income consists of payroll tax contributions (including contributions from railroad

employment), up to an additional 0.9 percent tax on earned income for relatively high earners, proceeds from taxation of scheduled OASDI benefits,

premium revenues, monies from fraud and abuse control activities, and any

reimbursements from the General Fund of the Treasury. Cost consists of outlays (benefits and administrative expenses) for beneficiaries. The Trustees

show income and cost estimates generally on a cash basis for the OASDI

program1 and on an incurred basis for the HI program.

The Trustees project the OASDI annual balance (non-interest income less

cost) as a percentage of GDP to be negative throughout the projection period

under the intermediate and high-cost assumptions. Under the low-cost

assumptions, the OASDI annual deficit as a percentage of GDP increases

from 2023 to 2024, and then generally decreases through 2053. After 2053,

the annual deficits slightly increase through 2067 and then decrease through

2081 before becoming positive for 2082 and later. Under the intermediate

assumptions, the OASDI annual deficits as a percentage of GDP increase

 1 OASDI benefits paid for entitlement for a particular month are generally paid in the succeeding month.

There are two primary exceptions to this general rule. First, payments can occur with a greater delay when a

benefit award is made after the month of initial benefit entitlement. At the time of benefit award, benefits

owed for months of prior entitlement are then also paid to the beneficiary. For the projections in this report,

such retroactive payments are included in the period where they are paid (at time of award). Second, when

benefit payments scheduled for January 3 are paid on the prior December 31, because January 3 falls on a

Sunday, such payments are shown in this report for the period they were scheduled to be paid.
219

OASDI and HI: Percent of GDP

from 2023 through 2077, and generally decrease thereafter. Under the highcost assumptions, annual deficits increase relatively rapidly through 2086,

and then slightly decrease through the end of the projection period.

The Trustees project that the HI annual balance as a percentage of GDP will

be positive and mostly increasing throughout the projection period, under the

low-cost assumptions. Under the intermediate assumptions, the HI annual

balance is positive in 2023 and 2024 and negative in 2025. After 2025,

annual deficits increase through 2044, and then decline thereafter. Under the

high-cost assumptions, the HI annual balance is negative for all years, with

annual deficits reaching a peak in 2070 and declining thereafter.

The combined OASDI and HI annual balance as a percentage of GDP is negative throughout the projection period under both the intermediate and highcost assumptions. Under the low-cost assumptions, the combined OASDI

and HI annual balance is negative through 2039, and then positive and

mostly rising thereafter. Under the intermediate assumptions, the combined

OASDI and HI annual deficits generally increase through 2076 and then

decline thereafter, reaching 1.55 percent of GDP by 2097. Under the highcost assumptions, combined annual deficits rise to a peak of 6.63 percent in

2081 and decrease thereafter.

By 2097, the combined OASDI and HI annual balances as percentages of

GDP range from a positive annual balance of 1.28 percent for the low-cost

assumptions to an annual deficit of 6.24 percent for the high-cost assumptions. Annual balances differ by a much smaller amount for the tenth projection year, 2032, ranging from an annual deficit of 0.16 percent for the lowcost assumptions to an annual deficit of 2.48 percent for the high-cost

assumptions.

The summarized long-range (75-year) actuarial balance as a percentage of

GDP for the combined OASDI and HI programs varies among the three

alternatives by a relatively large amount, from a positive actuarial balance of

0.58 percent under the low-cost assumptions to an actuarial deficit of

4.54 percent under the high-cost assumptions. The 25-year summarized actuarial balance varies by a smaller amount, from a positive actuarial balance of

0.07 percent of GDP to an actuarial deficit of 2.70 percent. Summarized rates

are calculated on a present-value basis. They include the trust fund reserve

balances on January 1, 2023 and the cost of reaching a target trust fund level

equal to 100 percent of the following year’s annual cost at the end of the

period. (See section IV.B.4 for further explanation.)
Appendices

220

Table VI.G4.—OASDI and HI Annual and Summarized Income, Cost, and Balance

as a Percentage of GDP, Calendar Years 2023-2100

Calendar year

Percentage of GDP GDP in

dollars

(billions)

OASDI HI Combined

Incomea Costb Balanceb Incomea Cost Balance Incomea Costb Balanceb

Intermediate:

2023 . . . . . 4.77 5.22 -0.45 1.53 1.52 0.01 6.30 6.74 -0.44 $26,592

2024 . . . . . 4.65 5.37 -.72 1.54 1.53 .01 6.19 6.90 -.71 27,655

2025 . . . . . 4.70 5.45 -.75 1.55 1.58 -.02 6.25 7.02 -.77 28,902

2026 . . . . . 4.74 5.52 -.78 1.59 1.62 -.03 6.34 7.15 -.81 30,177

2027 . . . . . 4.76 5.59 -.83 1.61 1.68 -.07 6.37 7.27 -.90 31,478

2028 . . . . . 4.78 5.66 -.88 1.62 1.73 -.11 6.40 7.39 -.99 32,778

2029 . . . . . 4.80 5.73 -.93 1.64 1.79 -.15 6.43 7.52 -1.08 34,125

2030 . . . . . 4.81 5.79 -.98 1.65 1.83 -.18 6.46 7.62 -1.16 35,521

2031 . . . . . 4.82 5.84 -1.02 1.67 1.88 -.21 6.49 7.72 -1.23 36,976

2032 . . . . . 4.82 5.88 -1.06 1.68 1.93 -.25 6.50 7.81 -1.31 38,487

2035 . . . . . 4.81 5.97 -1.16 1.70 2.04 -.34 6.51 8.01 -1.50 43,392

2040 . . . . . 4.78 6.03 -1.25 1.72 2.12 -.40 6.50 8.15 -1.65 52,850

2045 . . . . . 4.74 6.01 -1.27 1.74 2.15 -.41 6.48 8.15 -1.68 64,333

2050 . . . . . 4.71 6.01 -1.30 1.75 2.14 -.39 6.46 8.14 -1.68 78,438

2055 . . . . . 4.68 6.05 -1.37 1.77 2.11 -.34 6.46 8.16 -1.71 95,785

2060 . . . . . 4.66 6.14 -1.48 1.80 2.10 -.31 6.46 8.25 -1.79 116,988

2065 . . . . . 4.64 6.22 -1.58 1.82 2.10 -.29 6.46 8.32 -1.86 142,731

2070 . . . . . 4.63 6.28 -1.66 1.84 2.11 -.28 6.47 8.40 -1.93 173,850

2075 . . . . . 4.61 6.33 -1.72 1.86 2.12 -.26 6.47 8.45 -1.98 211,710

2080 . . . . . 4.59 6.30 -1.71 1.87 2.10 -.23 6.46 8.40 -1.94 258,358

2085 . . . . . 4.57 6.20 -1.63 1.88 2.07 -.19 6.44 8.26 -1.82 316,227

2090 . . . . . 4.54 6.06 -1.52 1.88 2.03 -.15 6.42 8.09 -1.66 387,813

2095 . . . . . 4.52 5.99 -1.46 1.88 1.99 -.10 6.41 7.97 -1.57 475,384

2100 . . . . . 4.51 5.99 -1.48 1.89 1.94 -.05 6.40 7.93 -1.53 581,611

Summarized rates: c

25-year:

 2023-47 . . 5.18 6.08 -.90 1.70 2.02 -.32 6.88 8.10 -1.22

50-year:

 2023-72 . . 4.94 6.09 -1.15 1.75 2.06 -.31 6.69 8.15 -1.46

75-year:

 2023-97 . . 4.84 6.10 -1.27 1.78 2.05 -.27 6.62 8.16 -1.54

Low-cost:

2023 . . . . . 4.72 5.13 -.40 1.52 1.47 .05 6.24 6.59 -.35 27,042

2024 . . . . . 4.63 5.13 -.49 1.53 1.43 .10 6.16 6.56 -.39 28,782

2025 . . . . . 4.67 5.11 -.44 1.54 1.44 .10 6.21 6.55 -.34 30,730

2026 . . . . . 4.73 5.12 -.39 1.58 1.46 .12 6.31 6.58 -.27 32,533

2027 . . . . . 4.76 5.14 -.38 1.59 1.47 .12 6.35 6.61 -.26 34,356

2028 . . . . . 4.79 5.15 -.36 1.61 1.49 .11 6.40 6.64 -.24 36,241

2029 . . . . . 4.82 5.16 -.34 1.62 1.51 .11 6.44 6.67 -.23 38,217

2030 . . . . . 4.84 5.17 -.33 1.63 1.52 .12 6.48 6.69 -.21 40,290

2031 . . . . . 4.86 5.17 -.31 1.65 1.52 .12 6.51 6.69 -.18 42,475

2032 . . . . . 4.88 5.17 -.29 1.66 1.53 .13 6.54 6.70 -.16 44,755

2035 . . . . . 4.87 5.15 -.29 1.68 1.53 .15 6.55 6.68 -.13 52,381

2040 . . . . . 4.84 5.09 -.24 1.71 1.44 .27 6.55 6.53 .03 67,898

2045 . . . . . 4.81 4.97 -.16 1.74 1.32 .41 6.55 6.29 .26 88,210

2050 . . . . . 4.79 4.89 -.10 1.76 1.20 .56 6.56 6.09 .46 115,112

2055 . . . . . 4.78 4.87 -.09 1.79 1.10 .69 6.57 5.97 .60 150,549

2060 . . . . . 4.78 4.91 -.13 1.82 1.04 .78 6.60 5.95 .65 196,798

2065 . . . . . 4.78 4.93 -.15 1.85 1.00 .84 6.62 5.93 .69 256,786

2070 . . . . . 4.78 4.93 -.15 1.87 1.00 .88 6.65 5.93 .72 334,496

2075 . . . . . 4.78 4.91 -.13 1.90 1.00 .89 6.67 5.91 .76 436,091

2080 . . . . . 4.78 4.82 -.05 1.91 1.00 .91 6.69 5.82 .87 570,560
221

OASDI and HI: Percent of GDP

Notes:

1. The Trustees show income and cost estimates generally on a cash basis for the OASDI program and on an

incurred basis for the HI program.

2. Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Low-cost (Cont.):

2085 . . . . . 4.78 4.67 0.10 1.93 0.99 0.94 6.70 5.66 1.04 $749,476

2090 . . . . . 4.78 4.53 .25 1.94 .98 .96 6.71 5.51 1.21 985,569

2095 . . . . . 4.78 4.50 .28 1.95 .96 .99 6.74 5.46 1.28 1,292,776

2100 . . . . . 4.80 4.56 .23 1.98 .91 1.07 6.77 5.47 1.31 1,690,135

Summarized rates: c

25-year:

 2023-47 . . 5.19 5.30 -.12 1.69 1.50 .19 6.88 6.80 .07

50-year:

 2023-72 . . 4.99 5.10 -.11 1.75 1.29 .47 6.75 6.39 .36

75-year:

 2023-97 . . 4.93 4.97 -.04 1.81 1.19 .61 6.74 6.16 .58

High-cost:

2023 . . . . . 4.83 5.37 -.54 1.53 1.58 -.05 6.36 6.95 -.59 25,892

2024 . . . . . 4.61 5.62 -1.01 1.54 1.64 -.10 6.15 7.26 -1.10 26,696

2025 . . . . . 4.68 5.77 -1.09 1.56 1.72 -.16 6.24 7.48 -1.24 27,746

2026 . . . . . 4.73 5.87 -1.14 1.60 1.80 -.20 6.33 7.67 -1.34 28,771

2027 . . . . . 4.74 5.97 -1.23 1.62 1.89 -.27 6.36 7.87 -1.51 29,762

2028 . . . . . 4.76 6.11 -1.35 1.64 1.99 -.35 6.40 8.10 -1.70 30,614

2029 . . . . . 4.77 6.24 -1.47 1.66 2.10 -.44 6.43 8.33 -1.91 31,452

2030 . . . . . 4.78 6.36 -1.59 1.67 2.19 -.51 6.45 8.55 -2.10 32,320

2031 . . . . . 4.78 6.47 -1.70 1.69 2.28 -.59 6.47 8.75 -2.29 33,222

2032 . . . . . 4.77 6.58 -1.81 1.71 2.38 -.67 6.48 8.96 -2.48 34,138

2035 . . . . . 4.76 6.82 -2.07 1.73 2.66 -.93 6.48 9.48 -3.00 37,070

2040 . . . . . 4.73 7.10 -2.37 1.75 3.02 -1.27 6.47 10.12 -3.64 42,423

2045 . . . . . 4.69 7.28 -2.59 1.76 3.36 -1.59 6.45 10.64 -4.19 48,300

2050 . . . . . 4.66 7.48 -2.82 1.78 3.68 -1.90 6.43 11.15 -4.72 54,825

2055 . . . . . 4.62 7.69 -3.07 1.79 3.92 -2.13 6.41 11.62 -5.20 62,192

2060 . . . . . 4.60 7.94 -3.35 1.81 4.12 -2.31 6.41 12.06 -5.65 70,544

2065 . . . . . 4.57 8.16 -3.59 1.83 4.26 -2.44 6.40 12.43 -6.03 79,912

2070 . . . . . 4.54 8.38 -3.84 1.84 4.33 -2.49 6.38 12.71 -6.33 90,302

2075 . . . . . 4.51 8.59 -4.07 1.86 4.32 -2.46 6.37 12.90 -6.53 101,834

2080 . . . . . 4.48 8.72 -4.24 1.87 4.26 -2.39 6.35 12.98 -6.63 114,766

2085 . . . . . 4.45 8.75 -4.31 1.88 4.17 -2.29 6.32 12.92 -6.60 129,504

2090 . . . . . 4.40 8.68 -4.28 1.88 4.07 -2.19 6.28 12.75 -6.47 146,448

2095 . . . . . 4.36 8.58 -4.22 1.87 3.96 -2.09 6.23 12.54 -6.31 165,801

2100 . . . . . 4.32 8.50 -4.18 1.87 4.04 -2.18 6.19 12.54 -6.36 187,740

Summarized rates: c

25-year:

 2023-47 . . 5.18 6.91 -1.74 1.73 2.69 -.97 6.90 9.60 -2.70

50-year:

 2023-72 . . 4.92 7.33 -2.41 1.76 3.28 -1.52 6.68 10.62 -3.93

75-year:

 2023-97 . . 4.80 7.64 -2.84 1.79 3.49 -1.70 6.59 11.14 -4.54

a Income for individual years excludes interest on the trust funds. Interest is implicit in all summarized values.

b OASDI benefit payments which were scheduled to be paid on January 3 for some past and future years were

actually paid on December 31 as required by the statutory provision for early delivery of benefit payments when

the normal payment delivery date is a Saturday, Sunday, or legal public holiday. For comparability with the values for historical years and the projections in this report, all trust fund operations and asset reserves reflect the

12 months of benefits scheduled for payment each year.

c Summarized rates are calculated on a present-value basis. They include the value of the trust funds on

January 1, 2023 and the cost of reaching a target trust fund level equal to 100 percent of annual cost at the end

of the period.

Table VI.G4.—OASDI and HI Annual and Summarized Income, Cost, and Balance

as a Percentage of GDP, Calendar Years 2023-2100 (Cont.)

Calendar year

Percentage of GDP GDP in

dollars

(billions)

OASDI HI Combined

Incomea Costb Balanceb Incomea Cost Balance Incomea Costb Balanceb
Appendices

222

Table VI.G5 displays annual ratios of OASDI taxable payroll to GDP. These

ratios facilitate comparisons of trust fund operations expressed as percentages of taxable payroll and those expressed as percentages of GDP. HI taxable payroll is 25 percent larger than the OASDI taxable payroll on average

over the long-range period; see section 1 of this appendix for a detailed

description of the difference. For each year, the cost as a percentage of GDP

is equal to the cost as a percentage of taxable payroll multiplied by the ratio

of taxable payroll to GDP.

Projections of GDP reflect projected increases in U.S. employment, labor

productivity, average hours worked, and the GDP price index (GDP deflator). Projections of taxable payroll reflect the components of growth in GDP

along with assumed changes in the ratio of total labor compensation to GDP,

the ratio of earnings to total labor compensation, the ratio of OASDI covered

earnings to total earnings, and the ratio of taxable to total covered earnings.

Over the long-range period, the ratio of OASDI taxable payroll to GDP is

projected to decline mostly due to a projected decline in the ratio of wages

and salaries to employee compensation. Over the last six complete economic

cycles, the ratio of wages and salaries to employee compensation declined at

an average annual rate of 0.17 percent. Over the 65-year period ending in

2097, the ratio of wages and salaries to employee compensation is projected

to remain the same for the low-cost assumptions and decline at an average

annual rate of 0.10, and 0.20 percent for the intermediate and high-cost

assumptions, respectively.

Table VI.G5.—Ratio of OASDI Taxable Payroll to GDP, Calendar Years 2023-2100 

Calendar year Intermediate Low-cost High-cost

2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.359 0.357 0.360

2024 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .361 .359 .360

2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .362 .361 .359

2026 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .363 .363 .360

2027 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .364 .365 .360

2028 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .364 .367 .361

2029 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .364 .369 .360

2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .365 .370 .360

2031 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .365 .371 .359

2032 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .364 .372 .357

2035 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .363 .371 .355

2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .359 .369 .351

2045 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .356 .367 .347

2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .354 .365 .343

2055 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .351 .364 .339

2060 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .349 .363 .335

2065 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .347 .363 .332

2070 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .345 .363 .328

2075 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .343 .363 .325

2080 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .341 .363 .321

2085 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .340 .364 .318

2090 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .339 .365 .315

2095 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .337 .366 .312

2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .336 .366 .309
223

OASDI and HI: Estimates in Dollars

3. Estimates in Dollars

This section presents long-range projections, in dollars, of the operations of

the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds and in some cases the HI Trust

Fund. Comparing current dollar values over long periods of time is difficult

because of the effect of inflation. In order to compare dollar values in a

meaningful way, table VI.G6 provides several economic series or indices

which can be used to adjust current dollars for changes in prices, wages, or

other aspects of economic growth during the projection period. Any series of

values can be adjusted by dividing the value for each year by the corresponding index value for the year.

One of the most common forms of standardization is price indexing, which

uses some measure of change in the prices of consumer goods. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W,

hereafter referred to as CPI), published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics,

Department of Labor, is one such price index. Consistent with the law, the

Social Security Administration (SSA) uses this index to determine the annual

cost-of-living increases for OASDI monthly benefits. The ultimate annual

rate of increase in the CPI is assumed to be 3.0, 2.4, and 1.8 percent for the

low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost sets of assumptions, respectively.

Table VI.G7 provides CPI-indexed dollar values (those adjusted using the

CPI in table VI.G6), which indicate the relative purchasing power of the values over time.

Wage indexing is another type of standardization. It combines the effects of

price inflation and real wage growth. The wage index presented here is the

national average wage index, as defined in section 209(k)(1) of the Social

Security Act. SSA uses this index to annually adjust the contribution and

benefit base and other earnings-related program amounts. The average wage

is assumed to grow by an average rate of 4.8, 3.6, and 2.4 percent under the

low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost assumptions, respectively, between

2032 and 2097. Wage-indexed values indicate the level of a series of values

relative to the changing standard of living of workers over time.

The taxable payroll series is used as an index to adjust for the effects of

changes in the number of workers and changes in the proportion of earnings

that are taxable, as well as for the effects of price inflation and real wage

growth. The OASDI taxable payroll consists of all earnings subject to

OASDI taxation, with an adjustment for the lower effective tax rate on multiple-employer excess wages. A series of values, divided by the taxable payroll, indicates the percentage of payroll that each value represents, and thus
Appendices

224

the extent to which the series of values increases or decreases as a percent of

payroll over time.

The GDP series is used as an index to adjust for the growth in the aggregate

amount of goods and services produced in the United States. Values adjusted

by GDP (see section 2 of this appendix) indicate their relative share of the

total output of the economy. No direct assumption is made about growth in

taxable payroll or GDP. These series reflect the basic demographic and economic assumptions, as discussed in sections V.A and V.B, respectively.

Discounting at the rate of interest is another way of standardizing current

dollars. The compound new-issue interest factor shown in table VI.G6

increases each year by the assumed effective annual nominal yield for special public-debt obligations issuable to the trust funds in the 12 months of the

prior year. The compound effective trust-fund interest factor shown in

table VI.G6 uses the effective annual yield on all currently-held securities in

the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds. The reciprocal of the compound

effective trust-fund interest factor approximates the cumulative discount factor used to convert nominal dollar values to present values as of the start of

the valuation period in order to create summarized values for this report.
225

OASDI and HI: Estimates in Dollars

Table VI.G6.—Selected Economic Variables, Calendar Years 2022-2100

[GDP and taxable payroll in billions]

Calendar year

Adjusted

CPIa Averagewage index

Taxable

payrollb

Gross

domestic

product

Compound

new-issue

interest

factorc

Compound

effective

trust-fund

interest

factord

Intermediate:

2022. . . . . . . . 96.15 $63,467.98 $9,069 $25,422 0.9711 0.9884

2023. . . . . . . . 100.00 66,147.17 9,552 26,592 1.0000 1.0117

2024. . . . . . . . 102.53 68,627.58 9,986 27,655 1.0357 1.0356

2025. . . . . . . . 104.99 71,411.99 10,465 28,902 1.0727 1.0602

2026. . . . . . . . 107.51 74,348.48 10,944 30,177 1.1112 1.0862

2027. . . . . . . . 110.09 77,393.67 11,443 31,478 1.1530 1.1140

2028. . . . . . . . 112.73 80,510.73 11,934 32,778 1.1985 1.1442

2029. . . . . . . . 115.44 83,757.03 12,438 34,125 1.2492 1.1768

2030. . . . . . . . 118.21 87,106.49 12,954 35,521 1.3051 1.2123

2031. . . . . . . . 121.04 90,574.48 13,492 36,976 1.3656 1.2512

2032. . . . . . . . 123.95 93,995.33 14,023 38,487 1.4295 1.2946

2035. . . . . . . . 133.09 104,726.27 15,730 43,392 1.6429 1.4693

2040. . . . . . . . 149.85 125,312.66 18,992 52,850 2.0725 1.8502

2045. . . . . . . . 168.71 149,423.47 22,925 64,333 2.6144 2.3337

2050. . . . . . . . 189.95 177,750.26 27,736 78,438 3.2980 2.9438

2055. . . . . . . . 213.87 211,432.09 33,623 95,785 4.1603 3.7136

2060. . . . . . . . 240.79 251,610.19 40,795 116,988 5.2481 4.6846

2065. . . . . . . . 271.11 299,758.28 49,472 142,731 6.6204 5.9095

2070. . . . . . . . 305.24 357,187.25 59,924 173,850 8.3514 7.4546

2075. . . . . . . . 343.67 425,523.96 72,602 211,710 10.5351 9.4038

2080. . . . . . . . 386.94 506,962.67 88,194 258,358 13.2897 11.8627

2085. . . . . . . . 435.65 603,863.51 107,502 316,227 16.7646 14.9644

2090. . . . . . . . 490.50 719,124.11 131,330 387,813 21.1481 18.8772

2095. . . . . . . . 552.26 856,091.73 160,374 475,384 26.6778 23.8131

2100. . . . . . . . 621.79 1,019,162.94 195,457 581,611 33.6533 30.0396

Low-cost:

2022. . . . . . . . 96.24 63,432.25 9,065 25,463 .9711 .9884

2023. . . . . . . . 100.00 66,442.68 9,665 27,042 1.0000 1.0120

2024. . . . . . . . 103.02 70,258.88 10,343 28,782 1.0425 1.0369

2025. . . . . . . . 106.12 74,575.71 11,089 30,730 1.0886 1.0639

2026. . . . . . . . 109.30 78,782.82 11,816 32,533 1.1411 1.0937

2027. . . . . . . . 112.58 83,005.63 12,555 34,356 1.2005 1.1276

2028. . . . . . . . 115.96 87,405.28 13,307 36,241 1.2672 1.1661

2029. . . . . . . . 119.43 92,010.68 14,090 38,217 1.3379 1.2096

2030. . . . . . . . 123.02 96,841.91 14,910 40,290 1.4125 1.2586

2031. . . . . . . . 126.71 101,915.61 15,771 42,475 1.4915 1.3140

2032. . . . . . . . 130.51 107,046.81 16,650 44,755 1.5776 1.3764

2035. . . . . . . . 142.61 123,656.58 19,420 52,381 1.8728 1.6083

2040. . . . . . . . 165.32 157,054.51 25,023 67,898 2.4925 2.1267

2045. . . . . . . . 191.66 198,412.60 32,341 88,210 3.3174 2.8275

2050. . . . . . . . 222.18 250,115.49 42,038 115,112 4.4152 3.7630

2055. . . . . . . . 257.57 315,518.44 54,815 150,549 5.8762 5.0083

2060. . . . . . . . 298.59 398,402.81 71,511 196,798 7.8208 6.6656

2065. . . . . . . . 346.15 503,681.03 93,206 256,786 10.4088 8.8714

2070. . . . . . . . 401.29 636,729.90 121,376 334,496 13.8533 11.8071

2075. . . . . . . . 465.20 804,422.07 158,315 436,091 18.4376 15.7143

2080. . . . . . . . 539.29 1,016,051.44 207,395 570,560 24.5389 20.9144

2085. . . . . . . . 625.19 1,283,116.99 272,944 749,476 32.6594 27.8354

2090. . . . . . . . 724.77 1,619,988.11 359,689 985,569 43.4670 37.0466

2095. . . . . . . . 840.20 2,044,788.30 472,758 1,292,776 57.8510 49.3061

2100. . . . . . . . 974.03 2,581,302.68 619,206 1,690,135 76.9950 65.6224
Appendices

226

Table VI.G7 shows the operations of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds

in CPI-indexed 2023 dollars—that is, adjusted by the CPI indexing series as

discussed above. The following items are presented in the table: (1) noninterest income, (2) interest income, (3) total income, (4) cost, and (5) asset

reserves at the end of the year. Non-interest income consists of payroll tax

contributions, income from taxation of scheduled OASDI benefits, and any

reimbursements from the General Fund of the Treasury. Cost consists of

scheduled benefits, administrative expenses, financial interchange with the

Railroad Retirement program, and payments for vocational rehabilitation

services for disabled beneficiaries. Table VI.G7 shows trust fund operations

under the intermediate, low-cost, and high-cost sets of assumptions.

High-cost:

2022. . . . . . . . 95.64 $63,460.05 $9,067 $25,417 0.9711 0.9884

2023. . . . . . . . 100.00 64,726.55 9,322 25,892 1.0000 1.0117

2024. . . . . . . . 102.92 67,055.34 9,613 26,696 1.0347 1.0352

2025. . . . . . . . 104.83 69,534.32 9,974 27,746 1.0650 1.0589

2026. . . . . . . . 106.72 71,952.76 10,360 28,771 1.0951 1.0831

2027. . . . . . . . 108.64 74,431.84 10,727 29,762 1.1282 1.1083

2028. . . . . . . . 110.60 76,626.52 11,038 30,614 1.1641 1.1346

2029. . . . . . . . 112.59 78,738.96 11,334 31,452 1.2018 1.1619

2030. . . . . . . . 114.61 80,892.11 11,623 32,320 1.2413 1.1911

2031. . . . . . . . 116.68 83,098.17 11,914 33,222 1.2835 1.2216

2032. . . . . . . . 118.78 85,191.64 12,189 34,138 1.3290 1.2601

2035. . . . . . . . 125.31 91,526.06 13,149 37,070 1.4792 1.4026

2040. . . . . . . . 137.00 103,154.86 14,877 42,423 1.7680 1.6765

2045. . . . . . . . 149.78 116,129.77 16,748 48,300 2.1134 2.0039

2050. . . . . . . . 163.75 130,383.43 18,799 54,825 2.5261 2.3952

2055. . . . . . . . 179.03 146,212.61 21,086 62,192 3.0194 2.8630

2060. . . . . . . . 195.74 163,914.93 23,657 70,544 3.6092 3.4222

2065. . . . . . . . 214.00 183,892.10 26,514 79,912 4.3140 4.0906

2070. . . . . . . . 233.96 206,377.12 29,646 90,302 5.1566 4.8895

2075. . . . . . . . 255.79 231,654.52 33,081 101,834 6.1637 5.8444

2080. . . . . . . . 279.66 260,139.82 36,896 114,766 7.3674 6.9858

2085. . . . . . . . 305.75 292,107.05 41,212 129,504 8.8063 8.3501

2090. . . . . . . . 334.28 328,026.09 46,140 146,448 10.5262 9.9810

2095. . . . . . . . 365.46 368,262.47 51,724 165,801 12.5820 11.9303

2100. . . . . . . . 399.56 413,333.48 57,994 187,740 15.0393 14.2603

a CPI-W indexed to calendar year 2023.

b Total earnings subject to OASDI contribution rates, adjusted to reflect the lower effective contribution

rates (compared to the combined employee-employer rate) that apply to multiple-employer “excess

wages.”

c For each alternative, incorporates the average of the assumed annual yield for special public-debt obligations issuable to the trust funds in the 12 months of the prior year.

d For each alternative, incorporates the annual effective yield for all outstanding special public-debt obligations held by the trust fund, with a half-year’s interest effect in each row. The effective yield for a period

equals total interest earned during the period divided by the total exposure to interest on asset reserves and

all income and cost items during the period. The reciprocals of the factors approximate the discounting/

accumulation factors that are used to calculate summarized rates and balances in this report.

Table VI.G6.—Selected Economic Variables, Calendar Years 2022-2100 (Cont.)

[GDP and taxable payroll in billions]

Calendar year

Adjusted

CPIa Average

wage index

Taxable

payrollb

Gross

domestic

product

Compound

new-issue

interest

factorc

Compound

effective

trust-fund

interest

factord
227

OASDI and HI: Estimates in Dollars

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Table VI.G7.—Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds,

in CPI-Indexed 2023 Dollars,a Calendar Years 2023-2100

[In billions]

a CPI-indexed 2023 dollars equal current dollars adjusted by the CPI indexing series in table VI.G6.

Calendar year

Non-interest

income

Interest

income

Total

income Costb

b Benefit payments which were scheduled to be paid on January 3 for some past and future years were actually paid on December 31 as required by the statutory provision for early delivery of benefit payments when

the normal payment delivery date is a Saturday, Sunday, or legal public holiday. For comparability with the

values for historical years and the projections in this report, all trust fund operations and asset reserves

reflect the 12 months of benefits scheduled for payment each year.

Asset

reserves at

end of yearb

Intermediate:

2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1,269.0 $65.7 $1,334.7 $1,387.9 $2,776.7

2024 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,255.0 62.4 1,317.4 1,448.0 2,577.6

2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,293.2 58.6 1,351.8 1,499.5 2,369.5

2026 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,331.5 55.8 1,387.3 1,550.7 2,150.6

2027 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,361.1 53.0 1,414.2 1,598.9 1,915.4

2028 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,390.1 49.3 1,439.4 1,646.7 1,663.3

2029 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,418.1 44.5 1,462.6 1,693.7 1,393.2

2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,444.9 38.8 1,483.7 1,739.3 1,105.0

2031 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,472.7 31.9 1,504.6 1,783.8 800.0

2032c . . . . . . . . . . . .

c The combined OASI and DI Trust Funds become depleted in 2034 under the intermediate assumptions and

in 2031 under the high-cost assumptions, so estimates for later years are not shown.

1,497.7 23.7 1,521.3 1,826.6 476.0

Low-cost: 

2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,277.3 67.4 1,344.8 1,386.0 2,788.7

2024 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,294.7 67.1 1,361.8 1,432.8 2,635.9

2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,351.5 67.6 1,419.1 1,479.1 2,499.0

2026 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,407.8 70.4 1,478.3 1,524.9 2,379.6

2027 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,452.7 74.4 1,527.2 1,567.4 2,270.1

2028 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,497.9 78.1 1,575.9 1,609.4 2,170.4

2029 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,542.2 81.3 1,623.5 1,651.5 2,079.2

2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,585.9 84.6 1,670.5 1,692.7 1,996.5

2031 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,630.8 88.3 1,719.1 1,733.3 1,924.1

2032 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,673.1 91.5 1,764.6 1,773.1 1,859.5

2035 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,788.0 93.5 1,881.5 1,893.3 1,673.8

2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,988.7 80.7 2,069.4 2,088.9 1,362.2

2045 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,215.9 67.0 2,282.9 2,288.0 1,118.0

2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,483.7 59.8 2,543.6 2,533.9 987.0

2055 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,794.7 55.1 2,849.8 2,847.0 893.2

2060 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,148.5 43.8 3,192.3 3,235.4 661.5

2065 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,542.4 20.6 3,562.9 3,656.1 220.0

2070 . . . . . . . . . . . . . d

d The combined OASI and DI Trust Funds become depleted in 2067 under the low-cost assumptions, but

combined asset reserves become positive again by the beginning of 2093 and remain positive through the

remainder of the projection period. Estimates are not shown for years in which asset reserves are negative.

dddd

2075 . . . . . . . . . . . . . ddddd

2080 . . . . . . . . . . . . . ddddd

2085 . . . . . . . . . . . . . ddddd

2090 . . . . . . . . . . . . . ddddd

2095 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,361.7 93.8 7,455.5 6,923.4 1,719.1

2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,324.1 243.3 8,567.4 7,917.5 4,367.9

High-cost:

2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,250.6 65.4 1,316.0 1,390.0 2,755.9

2024 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,197.1 59.3 1,256.3 1,458.1 2,476.0

2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,238.4 52.5 1,290.9 1,525.9 2,195.8

2026 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,274.7 46.7 1,321.4 1,582.3 1,896.1

2027 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,298.7 40.7 1,339.5 1,636.6 1,565.4

2028 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,317.4 33.0 1,350.5 1,690.4 1,197.9

2029 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,333.1 24.5 1,357.6 1,742.7 791.6

2030c . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,346.7 15.3 1,362.0 1,793.7 346.0
Appendices

228

Figure VI.G1 compares annual cost with annual total income and annual

non-interest income. The figure shows only the OASDI program under intermediate assumptions, and presents values in CPI-indexed 2023 dollars, consistent with table VI.G7. The difference between the income values for each

year is equal to the trust fund interest earnings. The figure illustrates that,

under intermediate assumptions, annual cost exceeds both total income and

non-interest income for 2023 through 2034, when trust fund reserves become

depleted. Estimates after reserve depletion are not shown. For 2023 through

2033 (the year preceding the year of trust fund reserve depletion), annual

cost is covered by drawing down combined trust fund reserves. Note that

income for 2023 is relatively high because of an estimated large positive

adjustment to payroll tax contributions to be made in June 2023.

Table VI.G8 presents the operations of the combined OASI and DI Trust

Funds in current, or nominal, dollars—that is, in dollars unadjusted for inflation. The following items are presented in the table: (1) non-interest income,

(2) interest income, (3) total income, (4) cost, and (5) asset reserves at the

end of the year. These estimates are presented using the intermediate, lowcost, and high-cost sets of demographic and economic assumptions to facilitate independent analysis.

 Figure VI.G1.—Estimated OASDI Income and Cost in CPI-Indexed 2023 Dollars,

Based on Intermediate Assumptions

[In billions]

2025 2030

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

Calendar year

Cost

Total income

Non-interest income
229

OASDI and HI: Estimates in Dollars

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Table VI.G8.—Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, 

in Current Dollars, Calendar Years 2023-2100

[In billions]

Calendar year

Non-interest

income

Interest

income

Total

income Costa

a Benefit payments which were scheduled to be paid on January 3 for some past and future years were actually paid on December 31 as required by the statutory provision for early delivery of benefit payments when

the normal payment delivery date is a Saturday, Sunday, or legal public holiday. For comparability with the

values for historical years and the projections in this report, all trust fund operations and asset reserves

reflect the 12 months of benefits scheduled for payment each year.

Asset

reserves at

end of yeara

Intermediate:

2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1,269.0 $65.7 $1,334.7 $1,387.9 $2,776.7

2024 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,286.7 64.0 1,350.7 1,484.6 2,642.8

2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,357.7 61.6 1,419.3 1,574.3 2,487.7

2026 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,431.5 60.0 1,491.5 1,667.2 2,312.0

2027 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,498.5 58.4 1,556.9 1,760.2 2,108.7

2028 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,567.0 55.6 1,622.7 1,856.3 1,875.1

2029 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,637.0 51.4 1,688.4 1,955.2 1,608.3

2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,707.9 45.9 1,753.9 2,056.0 1,306.2

2031 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,782.6 38.6 1,821.3 2,159.1 968.3

2032b . . . . . . . . . . . .

b The combined OASI and DI Trust Funds become depleted in 2034 under the intermediate assumptions and

in 2031 under the high-cost assumptions, so estimates for later years are not shown.

1,856.3 29.3 1,885.7 2,264.1 589.9

Low-cost:

2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,277.3 67.4 1,344.8 1,386.0 2,788.7

2024 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,333.9 69.1 1,403.0 1,476.1 2,715.6

2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,434.1 71.7 1,505.8 1,569.6 2,651.8

2026 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,538.8 77.0 1,615.7 1,666.7 2,600.9

2027 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,635.5 83.8 1,719.2 1,764.5 2,555.6

2028 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,736.8 90.5 1,827.4 1,866.2 2,516.7

2029 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,841.9 97.1 1,939.0 1,972.4 2,483.3

2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,950.9 104.1 2,055.1 2,082.3 2,456.0

2031 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,066.4 111.8 2,178.2 2,196.2 2,438.0

2032 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,183.6 119.4 2,302.9 2,314.1 2,426.8

2035 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,549.9 133.3 2,683.2 2,700.0 2,387.0

2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,287.8 133.5 3,421.2 3,453.5 2,252.0

2045 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,246.9 128.5 4,375.4 4,385.2 2,142.8

2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,518.4 132.9 5,651.4 5,629.9 2,192.9

2055 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,198.4 142.0 7,340.3 7,332.9 2,300.5

2060 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,401.2 130.7 9,531.9 9,660.7 1,975.2

2065 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,262.0 71.2 12,333.2 12,655.7 761.5

2070 . . . . . . . . . . . . . c

c The combined OASI and DI Trust Funds become depleted in 2067 under the low-cost assumptions, but

combined asset reserves become positive again by the beginning of 2093 and remain positive through the

remainder of the projection period. Estimates are not shown for years in which asset reserves are negative.

cccc

2075 . . . . . . . . . . . . . ccccc

2080 . . . . . . . . . . . . . ccccc

2085 . . . . . . . . . . . . . ccccc

2090 . . . . . . . . . . . . . ccccc

2095 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61,853.4 788.2 62,641.7 58,170.7 14,443.6

2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81,078.6 2,369.9 83,448.5 77,118.8 42,544.3

High-cost:

2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,250.6 65.4 1,316.0 1,390.0 2,755.9

2024 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,232.0 61.0 1,293.0 1,500.7 2,548.2

2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,298.2 55.1 1,353.3 1,599.6 2,301.9

2026 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,360.4 49.8 1,410.2 1,688.7 2,023.5

2027 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,411.0 44.2 1,455.2 1,778.0 1,700.7

2028 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,457.1 36.5 1,493.6 1,869.5 1,324.8

2029 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,500.9 27.6 1,528.5 1,962.0 891.3

2030b . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,543.5 17.6 1,561.1 2,055.8 396.5
Appendices

230

Table VI.G9 presents values in CPI-indexed 2023 dollars—that is, adjusted

by the CPI indexing series discussed at the beginning of this section. This

table contains the annual non-interest income and cost of the combined

OASI and DI Trust Funds, of the HI Trust Fund, and of the combined OASI,

DI, and HI Trust Funds, based on the intermediate, low-cost, and high-cost

sets of assumptions. For OASDI, non-interest income consists of payroll tax

contributions, proceeds from taxation of scheduled OASDI benefits, and any

reimbursements from the General Fund of the Treasury. Cost consists of

scheduled benefits, administrative expenses, financial interchange with the

Railroad Retirement program, and payments for vocational rehabilitation

services for disabled beneficiaries. For HI, non-interest income consists of

payroll tax contributions (including contributions from railroad employment), up to an additional 0.9 percent tax on earned income for relatively

high earners, proceeds from the taxation of scheduled OASDI benefits, premium revenues, monies from fraud and abuse control activities, and any

reimbursements from the General Fund of the Treasury. Total cost consists of

scheduled benefits and administrative expenses. The Trustees show income

and cost estimates generally on a cash basis for the OASDI program1 and on

an incurred basis for the HI program. Table VI.G9 also shows the annual balance, which equals the difference between non-interest income and cost.

 1 OASDI benefits paid for entitlement for a particular month are generally paid in the succeeding month.

There are two primary exceptions to this general rule. First, payments can occur with a greater delay when a

benefit award is made after the month of initial benefit entitlement. At the time of benefit award, benefits

owed for months of prior entitlement are then also paid to the beneficiary. For the projections in this report,

such retroactive payments are included in the period where they are paid (at time of award). Second, when

benefit payments scheduled for January 3 are paid on the prior December 31, because January 3 falls on a

Sunday, such payments are shown in this report for the period they were scheduled to be paid.
231

OASDI and HI: Estimates in Dollars

Table VI.G9.—OASDI and HI Annual Non-Interest Income, Cost, and

Balance in CPI-Indexed 2023 Dollars,a Calendar Years 2023-2100

[In billions]

Calendar

year

OASDI HI Combined

Noninterest

income Costb Balanceb

Noninterest

income Cost Balance

Noninterest

income Costb Balanceb

Intermediate:

2023 . . . . . $1,269 $1,388 -$119 $407 $404 $3 $1,676 $1,792 -$116

2024 . . . . . 1,255 1,448 -193 416 413 3 1,671 1,861 -190

2025 . . . . . 1,293 1,500 -206 428 434 -6 1,721 1,934 -213

2026 . . . . . 1,332 1,551 -219 447 456 -9 1,778 2,006 -228

2027 . . . . . 1,361 1,599 -238 460 479 -20 1,821 2,078 -257

2028 . . . . . 1,390 1,647 -257 472 503 -31 1,862 2,150 -288

2029 . . . . . 1,418 1,694 -276 484 528 -44 1,902 2,222 -320

2030 . . . . . 1,445 1,739 -294 496 551 -54 1,941 2,290 -349

2031 . . . . . 1,473 1,784 -311 509 574 -64 1,982 2,357 -375

2032 . . . . . 1,498 1,827 -329 522 598 -76 2,019 2,425 -405

2035 . . . . . 1,568 1,948 -379 554 665 -111 2,122 2,613 -491

2040 . . . . . 1,685 2,127 -442 607 748 -141 2,292 2,875 -582

2045 . . . . . 1,808 2,291 -483 662 818 -156 2,470 3,109 -639

2050 . . . . . 1,945 2,480 -535 723 882 -159 2,668 3,363 -694

2055 . . . . . 2,098 2,709 -611 794 947 -153 2,891 3,656 -765

2060 . . . . . 2,266 2,985 -719 872 1,022 -149 3,138 4,006 -868

2065 . . . . . 2,445 3,275 -829 957 1,108 -151 3,402 4,383 -981

2070 . . . . . 2,635 3,579 -944 1,047 1,204 -157 3,682 4,783 -1,101

2075 . . . . . 2,840 3,901 -1,061 1,144 1,303 -159 3,984 5,204 -1,220

2080 . . . . . 3,065 4,209 -1,144 1,248 1,401 -153 4,313 5,610 -1,297

2085 . . . . . 3,315 4,498 -1,183 1,362 1,500 -138 4,677 5,997 -1,321

2090 . . . . . 3,591 4,791 -1,200 1,486 1,602 -116 5,077 6,393 -1,316

2095 . . . . . 3,892 5,153 -1,260 1,622 1,709 -88 5,514 6,862 -1,348

2100 . . . . . 4,216 5,604 -1,388 1,769 1,815 -46 5,985 7,419 -1,434

Low-cost:

2023 . . . . . 1,277 1,386 -109 411 397 14 1,688 1,782 -94

2024 . . . . . 1,295 1,433 -138 427 399 29 1,722 1,831 -109

2025 . . . . . 1,351 1,479 -128 447 417 30 1,799 1,897 -98

2026 . . . . . 1,408 1,525 -117 470 434 36 1,878 1,959 -81

2027 . . . . . 1,453 1,567 -115 486 450 36 1,939 2,017 -78

2028 . . . . . 1,498 1,609 -112 502 466 36 2,000 2,075 -76

2029 . . . . . 1,542 1,651 -109 518 483 35 2,060 2,134 -74

2030 . . . . . 1,586 1,693 -107 535 497 38 2,121 2,190 -69

2031 . . . . . 1,631 1,733 -103 552 511 42 2,183 2,244 -61

2032 . . . . . 1,673 1,773 -100 569 525 44 2,242 2,298 -56

2035 . . . . . 1,788 1,893 -105 618 562 56 2,406 2,455 -49

2040 . . . . . 1,989 2,089 -100 703 592 111 2,692 2,681 11

2045 . . . . . 2,216 2,288 -72 799 609 190 3,015 2,897 117

2050 . . . . . 2,484 2,534 -50 912 623 290 3,396 3,157 240

2055 . . . . . 2,795 2,847 -52 1,046 644 402 3,841 3,491 350

2060 . . . . . 3,148 3,235 -87 1,200 684 516 4,348 3,919 430

2065 . . . . . 3,542 3,656 -114 1,371 745 627 4,914 4,401 513

2070 . . . . . 3,980 4,109 -129 1,562 831 731 5,542 4,939 603

2075 . . . . . 4,478 4,604 -125 1,778 939 839 6,256 5,542 714

2080 . . . . . 5,055 5,103 -48 2,024 1,057 967 7,079 6,160 919

2085 . . . . . 5,727 5,601 125 2,308 1,186 1,122 8,035 6,788 1,248

2090 . . . . . 6,496 6,160 337 2,634 1,327 1,307 9,130 7,487 1,643

2095 . . . . . 7,362 6,923 438 3,007 1,480 1,527 10,368 8,403 1,965

2100 . . . . . 8,324 7,918 407 3,429 1,571 1,858 11,753 9,489 2,265
Appendices

232

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Table VI.G10 shows values in current, or nominal, dollars—that is, in dollars

unadjusted for inflation. This table presents the annual non-interest income,

cost, and balance of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, of the HI Trust

Fund, and of the combined OASI, DI, and HI Trust Funds, based on the

intermediate, low-cost, and high-cost sets of assumptions.

High-cost:

2023 . . . . . $1,251 $1,390 -$139 $396 $410 -$14 $1,646 $1,800 -$153

2024 . . . . . 1,197 1,458 -261 399 425 -25 1,596 1,883 -286

2025 . . . . . 1,238 1,526 -288 412 454 -42 1,651 1,980 -329

2026 . . . . . 1,275 1,582 -308 432 486 -54 1,707 2,068 -361

2027 . . . . . 1,299 1,637 -338 444 519 -75 1,743 2,156 -413

2028 . . . . . 1,317 1,690 -373 454 552 -98 1,771 2,242 -471

2029 . . . . . 1,333 1,743 -410 463 586 -123 1,796 2,328 -533

2030 . . . . . 1,347 1,794 -447 472 617 -145 1,819 2,410 -592

2031 . . . . . 1,360 1,844 -483 482 649 -167 1,842 2,493 -651

2032 . . . . . 1,371 1,892 -521 491 684 -193 1,862 2,576 -714

2035 . . . . . 1,407 2,019 -612 511 787 -276 1,918 2,805 -888

2040 . . . . . 1,463 2,198 -734 541 935 -394 2,005 3,133 -1,128

2045 . . . . . 1,512 2,348 -836 568 1,082 -514 2,080 3,430 -1,350

2050 . . . . . 1,559 2,504 -945 594 1,231 -636 2,153 3,734 -1,581

2055 . . . . . 1,606 2,673 -1,067 622 1,362 -740 2,228 4,035 -1,807

2060 . . . . . 1,656 2,862 -1,206 653 1,484 -832 2,309 4,346 -2,038

2065 . . . . . 1,706 3,048 -1,342 683 1,592 -909 2,388 4,640 -2,252

2070 . . . . . 1,752 3,233 -1,481 712 1,672 -960 2,464 4,906 -2,441

2075 . . . . . 1,797 3,418 -1,621 740 1,719 -978 2,537 5,137 -2,599

2080 . . . . . 1,840 3,579 -1,739 768 1,748 -980 2,608 5,327 -2,719

2085 . . . . . 1,884 3,707 -1,824 795 1,766 -971 2,678 5,473 -2,795

2090 . . . . . 1,930 3,804 -1,874 821 1,781 -959 2,751 5,585 -2,834

2095 . . . . . 1,978 3,891 -1,913 848 1,797 -948 2,827 5,688 -2,861

2100 . . . . . 2,029 3,993 -1,964 878 1,900 -1,023 2,907 5,893 -2,986

a CPI-indexed 2023 dollars equal current dollars adjusted by the CPI indexing series in table VI.G6.

b OASDI benefit payments which were scheduled to be paid on January 3 for some past and future years

were actually paid on December 31 as required by the statutory provision for early delivery of benefit payments when the normal payment delivery date is a Saturday, Sunday, or legal public holiday. For comparability with the values for historical years and the projections in this report, all trust fund operations and asset

reserves reflect the 12 months of benefits scheduled for payment each year.

Table VI.G9.—OASDI and HI Annual Non-Interest Income, Cost, and

Balance in CPI-Indexed 2023 Dollars,a Calendar Years 2023-2100 (Cont.)

[In billions]

Calendar

year

OASDI HI Combined

Noninterest

income Costb Balanceb

Noninterest

income Cost Balance

Noninterest

income Costb Balanceb
233

OASDI and HI: Estimates in Dollars

Table VI.G10.—OASDI and HI Annual Non-Interest Income, Cost, and

Balance in Current Dollars, Calendar Years 2023-2100

[In billions]

Calendar

year

OASDI HI Combined

Noninterest

income Costa Balancea

Noninterest

income Cost Balance

Noninterest

income Costa Balancea

Intermediate:

2023 . . . . . $1,269 $1,388 -$119 $407 $404 $3 $1,676 $1,792 -$116

2024 . . . . . 1,287 1,485 -198 426 423 3 1,713 1,908 -195

2025 . . . . . 1,358 1,574 -217 449 456 -7 1,807 2,030 -223

2026 . . . . . 1,432 1,667 -236 480 490 -10 1,912 2,157 -245

2027 . . . . . 1,498 1,760 -262 506 528 -22 2,004 2,288 -283

2028 . . . . . 1,567 1,856 -289 532 567 -35 2,099 2,423 -325

2029 . . . . . 1,637 1,955 -318 558 610 -51 2,195 2,565 -369

2030 . . . . . 1,708 2,056 -348 587 651 -64 2,295 2,707 -412

2031 . . . . . 1,783 2,159 -377 616 694 -78 2,399 2,853 -454

2032 . . . . . 1,856 2,264 -408 647 741 -95 2,503 3,005 -502

2035 . . . . . 2,087 2,592 -505 738 886 -148 2,825 3,477 -653

2040 . . . . . 2,525 3,187 -662 910 1,121 -211 3,435 4,308 -872

2045 . . . . . 3,051 3,866 -815 1,117 1,380 -264 4,168 5,246 -1,079

2050 . . . . . 3,695 4,712 -1,017 1,374 1,676 -302 5,069 6,388 -1,319

2055 . . . . . 4,486 5,794 -1,308 1,697 2,025 -328 6,183 7,819 -1,635

2060 . . . . . 5,456 7,187 -1,731 2,100 2,460 -360 7,556 9,647 -2,091

2065 . . . . . 6,629 8,878 -2,248 2,594 3,004 -410 9,224 11,882 -2,658

2070 . . . . . 8,044 10,925 -2,881 3,196 3,675 -479 11,239 14,599 -3,360

2075 . . . . . 9,760 13,405 -3,645 3,931 4,478 -547 13,691 17,883 -4,192

2080 . . . . . 11,859 16,286 -4,427 4,829 5,422 -593 16,689 21,708 -5,020

2085 . . . . . 14,442 19,594 -5,153 5,932 6,533 -601 20,374 26,127 -5,754

2090 . . . . . 17,615 23,499 -5,884 7,287 7,858 -571 24,902 31,357 -6,455

2095 . . . . . 21,496 28,457 -6,961 8,955 9,438 -483 30,451 37,895 -7,444

2100 . . . . . 26,211 34,844 -8,633 11,001 11,286 -285 37,213 46,131 -8,918

Low-cost:

2023 . . . . . 1,277 1,386 -109 411 397 14 1,688 1,782 -94

2024 . . . . . 1,334 1,476 -142 440 411 29 1,774 1,887 -113

2025 . . . . . 1,434 1,570 -135 474 443 31 1,909 2,013 -104

2026 . . . . . 1,539 1,667 -128 514 474 40 2,053 2,141 -88

2027 . . . . . 1,635 1,765 -129 547 507 41 2,183 2,271 -88

2028 . . . . . 1,737 1,866 -129 582 540 42 2,319 2,407 -88

2029 . . . . . 1,842 1,972 -131 619 577 42 2,461 2,549 -89

2030 . . . . . 1,951 2,082 -131 658 611 47 2,609 2,694 -84

2031 . . . . . 2,066 2,196 -130 700 647 53 2,766 2,843 -77

2032 . . . . . 2,184 2,314 -131 743 685 57 2,926 3,000 -73

2035 . . . . . 2,550 2,700 -150 881 801 80 3,431 3,501 -70

2040 . . . . . 3,288 3,453 -166 1,162 978 184 4,450 4,432 18

2045 . . . . . 4,247 4,385 -138 1,531 1,168 363 5,778 5,553 225

2050 . . . . . 5,518 5,630 -111 2,027 1,384 644 7,546 7,014 532

2055 . . . . . 7,198 7,333 -135 2,695 1,658 1,036 9,893 8,991 902

2060 . . . . . 9,401 9,661 -259 3,583 2,041 1,542 12,984 11,702 1,283

2065 . . . . . 12,262 12,656 -394 4,747 2,578 2,169 17,009 15,234 1,775

2070 . . . . . 15,973 16,488 -516 6,268 3,333 2,935 22,241 19,821 2,419

2075 . . . . . 20,833 21,416 -583 8,270 4,367 3,902 29,102 25,783 3,319

2080 . . . . . 27,261 27,518 -257 10,917 5,702 5,215 38,177 33,220 4,958

2085 . . . . . 35,803 35,020 783 14,432 7,416 7,017 50,235 42,435 7,799

2090 . . . . . 47,084 44,643 2,441 19,090 9,620 9,470 66,174 54,263 11,911

2095 . . . . . 61,853 58,171 3,683 25,262 12,434 12,828 87,115 70,605 16,510

2100 . . . . . 81,079 77,119 3,960 33,401 15,303 18,097 114,479 92,422 22,057
Appendices

234

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

High-cost:

2023 . . . . . $1,251 $1,390 -$139 $396 $410 -$14 $1,646 $1,800 -$153

2024 . . . . . 1,232 1,501 -269 411 437 -26 1,643 1,938 -295

2025 . . . . . 1,298 1,600 -301 432 476 -44 1,731 2,076 -345

2026 . . . . . 1,360 1,689 -328 461 518 -58 1,821 2,207 -386

2027 . . . . . 1,411 1,778 -367 483 564 -81 1,894 2,342 -448

2028 . . . . . 1,457 1,869 -412 502 610 -109 1,959 2,480 -521

2029 . . . . . 1,501 1,962 -461 521 659 -139 2,022 2,621 -600

2030 . . . . . 1,543 2,056 -512 541 707 -166 2,085 2,763 -678

2031 . . . . . 1,587 2,151 -564 562 757 -195 2,149 2,908 -759

2032 . . . . . 1,629 2,247 -618 583 812 -229 2,211 3,059 -848

2035 . . . . . 1,763 2,530 -766 640 986 -346 2,403 3,515 -1,112

2040 . . . . . 2,005 3,011 -1,006 742 1,281 -539 2,746 4,292 -1,545

2045 . . . . . 2,265 3,517 -1,252 851 1,621 -770 3,116 5,138 -2,022

2050 . . . . . 2,552 4,100 -1,548 974 2,015 -1,042 3,526 6,115 -2,590

2055 . . . . . 2,875 4,785 -1,910 1,114 2,439 -1,325 3,989 7,224 -3,235

2060 . . . . . 3,241 5,602 -2,360 1,277 2,906 -1,628 4,519 8,507 -3,989

2065 . . . . . 3,650 6,523 -2,873 1,461 3,407 -1,946 5,111 9,929 -4,819

2070 . . . . . 4,100 7,565 -3,465 1,666 3,913 -2,247 5,766 11,477 -5,712

2075 . . . . . 4,596 8,743 -4,146 1,894 4,397 -2,503 6,490 13,139 -6,649

2080 . . . . . 5,145 10,008 -4,863 2,148 4,889 -2,741 7,293 14,897 -7,605

2085 . . . . . 5,759 11,336 -5,577 2,430 5,399 -2,969 8,189 16,735 -8,546

2090 . . . . . 6,451 12,717 -6,266 2,746 5,953 -3,207 9,197 18,670 -9,473

2095 . . . . . 7,230 14,222 -6,992 3,101 6,566 -3,465 10,331 20,788 -10,456

2100 . . . . . 8,108 15,954 -7,846 3,507 7,593 -4,086 11,615 23,547 -11,931

a OASDI benefit payments which were scheduled to be paid on January 3 for some past and future years

were actually paid on December 31 as required by the statutory provision for early delivery of benefit payments when the normal payment delivery date is a Saturday, Sunday, or legal public holiday. For comparability with the values for historical years and the projections in this report, all trust fund operations and asset

reserves reflect the 12 months of benefits scheduled for payment each year.

Table VI.G10.—OASDI and HI Annual Non-Interest Income, Cost, and

Balance in Current Dollars, Calendar Years 2023-2100 (Cont.)

[In billions]

Calendar

year

OASDI HI Combined

Noninterest

income Costa Balancea

Noninterest

income Cost Balance

Noninterest

income Costa Balancea
235

OASI Benefits for the Disabled

H. ANALYSIS OF BENEFIT PAYMENTS FROM THE OASI 

TRUST FUND WITH RESPECT TO DISABLED BENEFICIARIES

(Required by section 201(c) of the Social Security Act)

Effective January 1957, the OASI Trust Fund pays monthly benefits to disabled children aged 18 and over of retired and deceased workers if the disability began before age 18. The age by which disability must have begun

was later changed to age 22. Effective February 1968, the OASI Trust Fund

pays reduced monthly benefits to disabled widows and widowers at ages 50

and over. Effective January 1991, the requirements for the disability of the

widow or widower were made less restrictive.

At the end of 2022, the OASI Trust Fund was providing monthly benefit payments to about 1,128,000 people because of their disabilities or the disabilities of children. This total includes approximately 21,000 mothers and

fathers (wives or husbands under normal retirement age of retired-worker

beneficiaries and widows or widowers of deceased insured workers) who

met all other qualifying requirements and were receiving unreduced benefits

solely because they had disabled-child beneficiaries (or disabled children

aged 16 or 17) in their care. In calendar year 2022, the OASI Trust Fund paid

a total of $13,266 million to the people described above. Table VI.H1 shows

OASI scheduled benefits for disability for selected calendar years during

1960 through 2022 and estimates for 2023 through 2032 based on the intermediate set of assumptions.
Appendices

236

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Table VI.H1.—Scheduled Benefit Payments From the OASI Trust Fund

With Respect to Disabled Beneficiaries

[Beneficiaries in thousands; scheduled benefits in millions]

Calendar year

Disabled beneficiaries, end of year Amount of scheduled benefitsa b

a Beginning in 1966, includes payments for vocational rehabilitation services.

b Amounts for 2020 and 2021 are adjusted to include in 2021 operations those benefit payments regularly

scheduled in the law to be paid on January 3, 2021, which were actually paid on December 31, 2020 as

required by the statutory provision for early benefit payments when the normal delivery date is on a weekend

or holiday. Such shifts in payments across calendar years have occurred in the past, including in 2016, and

will occur periodically in the future whenever January 3rd falls on a Sunday. In order to provide a consistent

perspective on trust fund operations over time, all trust fund operations in each year reflect the 12 months of

benefits that are regularly scheduled for payment in that year.

Total Children c

c Also includes certain mothers and fathers (see text).

Widowswidowers d

d In 1984 and later years, includes only disabled widows and widowers aged 50-59, because disabled widows and widowers age 60 and older are eligible for the same benefit as a nondisabled aged widow or widower. Therefore, they are not receiving benefits solely because of a disability.

Total Childrenc Widowswidowers e

e In 1983 and prior years, includes the offsetting effect of lower benefits payable to disabled widows and

widowers who continued to receive benefits after attaining age 60 (62, for disabled widowers prior to 1973),

compared to the higher nondisabled widow’s and widower’s benefits that would otherwise be payable. In

1984 and later years, includes only scheduled benefits to disabled widows and widowers aged 50-59 (see

footnote d).

Historical data:

1960 . . . . . . . . . 117 117 — $59 $59 —

1965 . . . . . . . . . 214 214 — 134 134 —

1970 . . . . . . . . . 316 281 36 301 260 $41

1975 . . . . . . . . . 435 376 58 664 560 104

1980 . . . . . . . . . 519 460 59 1,223 1,097 126

1985 . . . . . . . . . 594 547 47 2,072 1,885 187

1990 . . . . . . . . . 662 613 49 2,882 2,649 233

1995 . . . . . . . . . 772 681 91 4,202 3,672 531

2000 . . . . . . . . . 811 707 104 5,203 4,523 680

2005 . . . . . . . . . 836 728 108 6,449 5,556 834

2010 . . . . . . . . . 996 879 117 8,671 7,662 1,008

2015 . . . . . . . . . 1,096 972 124 10,640 9,528 1,109

2016 . . . . . . . . . 1,109 988 121 10,909 9,818 1,087

2017 . . . . . . . . . 1,124 1,006 117 11,222 10,156 1,061

2018 . . . . . . . . . 1,139 1,027 112 11,767 10,729 1,031

2019 . . . . . . . . . 1,144 1,041 103 12,148 11,152 983

2020 . . . . . . . . . 1,147 1,051 95 12,351 11,403 934

2021 . . . . . . . . . 1,136 1,050 86 12,453 11,578 861

2022 . . . . . . . . . 1,128 1,051 78 13,266 12,414 829

Estimates under the intermediate assumptions:

2023 . . . . . . . . . 1,141 1,069 71 14,514 13,669 822

2024 . . . . . . . . . 1,153 1,084 69 15,265 14,419 822

2025 . . . . . . . . . 1,170 1,102 68 15,939 15,088 826

2026 . . . . . . . . . 1,189 1,121 68 16,706 15,828 853

2027 . . . . . . . . . 1,209 1,140 69 17,515 16,606 883

2028 . . . . . . . . . 1,227 1,157 70 18,343 17,395 921

2029 . . . . . . . . . 1,246 1,177 69 19,204 18,224 952

2030 . . . . . . . . . 1,264 1,196 68 20,081 19,092 960

2031 . . . . . . . . . 1,284 1,216 68 21,006 19,989 987

2032 . . . . . . . . . 1,305 1,236 69 21,996 20,938 1,028
237

OASI Benefits for the Disabled

Under the intermediate assumptions, estimated total scheduled benefits paid

from the OASI Trust Fund with respect to disabled beneficiaries will

increase from $14,514 million in calendar year 2023 to $21,996 million in

calendar year 2032.

In calendar year 2022, benefit payments (including payments for vocational

rehabilitation services) with respect to disabled persons from the OASI Trust

Fund and from the DI Trust Fund (including payments from the DI fund to

all children and spouses of disabled-worker beneficiaries) totaled

$156,861 million. Of this amount, $13,266 million, or 8.5 percent, represented payments from the OASI Trust Fund. Table VI.H2 contains these and

similar figures for selected calendar years during 1960 through 2022 and

estimates for calendar years 2023 through 2032.
Appendices

238

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Table VI.H2.—Scheduled Benefit Paymentsa Under the OASDI Program

With Respect to Disabled Beneficiaries

[Amounts in millions]

a Amounts for 2020 and 2021 are adjusted to include in 2021 operations those benefit payments regularly

scheduled in the law to be paid on January 3, 2021, which were actually paid on December 31, 2020 as

required by the statutory provision for early benefit payments when the normal delivery date is on a weekend

or holiday. Such shifts in payments across calendar years have occurred in the past, including in 2016, and

will occur periodically in the future whenever January 3rd falls on a Sunday. In order to provide a consistent

perspective on trust fund operations over time, all trust fund operations in each year reflect the 12 months of

benefits that are regularly scheduled for payment in that year.

Calendar year Totalb

b Beginning in 1966, includes payments for vocational rehabilitation services.

DI Trust Fund c

c Scheduled benefits for disabled workers and their children and spouses.

OASI Trust Fund

Amount d

d Scheduled benefits for disabled children aged 18 and over, for certain mothers and fathers (see text), and

for disabled widows and widowers (see footnote e, table VI.H1).

Percentage of total

Historical data:

1960 . . . . . . . . . $627 $568 $59 9.4

1965 . . . . . . . . . 1,707 1,573 134 7.9

1970 . . . . . . . . . 3,386 3,085 301 8.9

1975 . . . . . . . . . 9,169 8,505 664 7.2

1980 . . . . . . . . . 16,738 15,515 1,223 7.3

1985 . . . . . . . . . 20,908 18,836 2,072 9.9

1990 . . . . . . . . . 27,717 24,835 2,882 10.4

1995 . . . . . . . . . 45,140 40,937 4,202 9.3

2000 . . . . . . . . . 60,204 55,001 5,203 8.6

2005 . . . . . . . . . 91,835 85,386 6,449 7.0

2010 . . . . . . . . . 132,916 124,245 8,671 6.5

2015 . . . . . . . . . 154,028 143,388 10,640 6.9

2016 . . . . . . . . . 153,709 142,800 10,909 7.1

2017 . . . . . . . . . 154,048 142,826 11,222 7.3

2018 . . . . . . . . . 155,526 143,760 11,767 7.6

2019 . . . . . . . . . 157,289 145,141 12,148 7.7

2020 . . . . . . . . . 155,933 143,582 12,351 7.9

2021 . . . . . . . . . 152,538 140,085 12,453 8.2

2022 . . . . . . . . . 156,861 143,595 13,266 8.5

Estimates under the intermediate assumptions:

2023 . . . . . . . . . 162,584 148,070 14,514 8.9

2024 . . . . . . . . . 170,786 155,521 15,265 8.9

2025 . . . . . . . . . 181,291 165,353 15,939 8.8

2026 . . . . . . . . . 192,051 175,345 16,706 8.7

2027 . . . . . . . . . 201,292 183,777 17,515 8.7

2028 . . . . . . . . . 209,539 191,196 18,343 8.8

2029 . . . . . . . . . 216,103 196,899 19,204 8.9

2030 . . . . . . . . . 222,804 202,723 20,081 9.0

2031 . . . . . . . . . 230,957 209,952 21,006 9.1

2032 . . . . . . . . . 240,239 218,243 21,996 9.2
239

Glossary

I. GLOSSARY

Actuarial balance. The difference between the summarized income rate and

the summarized cost rate as a percentage of taxable payroll over a given valuation period.

Actuarial deficit. A negative actuarial balance.

Administrative expenses. Expenses incurred by the Social Security Administration and the Department of the Treasury in administering the OASDI

program and the provisions of the Internal Revenue Code relating to the collection of contributions. Such administrative expenses are paid from the

OASI and DI Trust Funds.

Advance tax transfers. Amounts representing the estimated total OASDI

tax contributions for a given month. From May 1983 through

November 1990, such amounts were credited to the OASI and DI Trust

Funds at the beginning of each month. The trust funds reimbursed the General Fund of the Treasury for the associated loss of interest. Advance tax

transfers are no longer made unless needed in order to pay benefits.

Alternatives I, II, or III. See “Assumptions.”

Annual balance. The difference between the income rate and the cost rate

for a given year.

Asset reserves. See “Trust fund reserves”.

Assumptions. Values related to future trends in key factors that affect the

trust funds. Demographic assumptions include fertility, mortality, net immigration, marriage, and divorce. Economic assumptions include unemployment rates, average earnings, inflation, interest rates, and productivity.

Program-specific assumptions include retirement patterns, and disability

incidence and termination rates. This report presents three sets of demographic, economic, and program-specific assumptions:

 • Alternative II is the intermediate set of assumptions, and represents the

Trustees’ best estimates of likely future demographic, economic, and

program-specific conditions.

 • Alternative I is a low-cost set of assumptions—it assumes relatively

rapid economic growth, high inflation, and favorable (from the standpoint of program financing) demographic and program-specific conditions.

 • Alternative III is a high-cost set of assumptions—it assumes relatively

slow economic growth, low inflation, and unfavorable (from the standpoint of program financing) demographic and program-specific conditions.

See tables V.A2, V.B1, and V.B2.

Automatic cost-of-living benefit increase. The annual increase in benefits,

effective for December, reflecting the increase, if any, in the cost of living. A
Appendices

240

benefit increase is applicable only after a beneficiary becomes eligible for

benefits. In general, the benefit increase equals the percentage increase in the

Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers

(CPI-W) measured from the third quarter of the last year for which there was

an increase to the third quarter of the current year. If there is no increase in

the CPI-W, there is no cost-of-living benefit increase. See table V.C1.

Auxiliary benefits. Monthly benefits payable to a spouse or child of a

retired or disabled worker, or to a survivor of a deceased worker.

Average indexed monthly earnings—AIME. The measure of lifetime

earnings used in determining the primary insurance amount (PIA) for most

workers who attain age 62, become disabled, or die after 1978. A worker’s

actual past earnings are adjusted by changes in the average wage index, in

order to bring them up to their approximately equivalent value at the time of

retirement or other eligibility for benefits.

Average wage index—AWI. A series that generally increases with the average amount of total wages per worker with any wages for each year after

1950, including wages in noncovered employment and wages in covered

employment in excess of the OASDI contribution and benefit base. (See

Title 20, Chapter III, section 404.211(c) of the Code of Federal Regulations

for a more precise definition.) The average wage index is used to index the

taxable earnings of most workers first becoming eligible for benefits in 1979

or later, and for automatic adjustments in the contribution and benefit base,

bend points, earnings test exempt amounts, and other wage-indexed

amounts. See tables V.C1 and VI.G6.

Award. An administrative determination that an individual is entitled to

receive a specified type of OASDI benefit. Awards can represent not only

new entrants to the benefit rolls but also persons already on the rolls who

become entitled to a different type of benefit. Awards usually result in the

immediate payment of benefits, although payments may be deferred or withheld depending on the individual’s particular circumstances.

Baby boom. The period from the end of World War II (1946) through 1965

marked by unusually high birth rates.

Bend points. The dollar amounts defining the AIME or PIA brackets in the

benefit formulas. For the bend points for years 1979 and later, see

table V.C2.

Beneficiary. A person who has been awarded benefits on the basis of his or

her own or another’s earnings record. The benefits may be either in currentpayment status or withheld.

Benefit award. See “Award.”

Benefit conversion. See “Disability conversion.”
241

Glossary

Benefit payments. The amounts disbursed for OASI and DI benefits by the

Department of the Treasury.

Benefit termination. See “Termination.”

Best estimate assumptions. See “Assumptions.”

Board. See “Board of Trustees.”

Board of Trustees. A Board established by the Social Security Act to oversee the financial operations of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance

Trust Fund and the Federal Disability Insurance Trust Fund. The Board is

composed of six members. Four members serve by virtue of their positions

in the Federal Government: the Secretary of the Treasury, who is the Managing Trustee; the Secretary of Labor; the Secretary of Health and Human Services; and the Commissioner of Social Security. The President appoints and

the Senate confirms the other two members to serve as public representatives. Also referred to as the “Board” or the “Trustees.”

Cash flow. Actual or projected revenue (other than interest paid to the trust

funds) and costs reflecting the levels of payroll tax contribution rates and

benefits scheduled in the law. Net cash flow is the difference between noninterest income and cost.

Consumer Price Index—CPI. An official measure of inflation in consumer

prices. In this report, CPI refers to the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage

Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). The Bureau of Labor Statistics,

Department of Labor, publishes historical values for the CPI-W.

Contribution and benefit base. Annual dollar amount above which earnings in employment covered under the OASDI program are neither taxable

nor creditable for benefit-computation purposes. (Also referred to as maximum contribution and benefit base, annual creditable maximum, taxable

maximum, and maximum taxable.) See tables V.C1 and V.C6. See “Hospital

Insurance (HI) contribution base.”

Contributions. See “Payroll tax contributions.”

Conversion. See “Disability conversion.”

Cost. The cost shown for a year includes benefits scheduled for payment in

the year (without regard to the ability to make the payments in full), administrative expenses, financial interchange with the Railroad Retirement program, and payments for vocational rehabilitation services for disabled

beneficiaries.

Cost-of-living adjustment. See “Automatic cost-of-living benefit increase.”

Cost rate. The cost rate for a year is the ratio of the cost of the program to

the taxable payroll for the year.

Covered earnings. Wages or earnings from self-employment covered by the

OASDI program.
Appendices

242

Covered employment. All employment for which earnings are creditable

for Social Security purposes. The program covers almost all employment.

Some exceptions are:

 • State and local government employees whose employer has not elected

to be covered under Social Security and who are participating in an

employer-provided pension plan.

 • Current Federal civilian workers hired before 1984 who have not

elected to be covered.

 • Self-employed workers earning less than $400 in a calendar year.

Covered worker. A person who has earnings creditable for Social Security

purposes based on services for wages in covered employment or income

from covered self-employment.

CPI-indexed dollars. Amounts adjusted by the CPI to the value of the dollar

in a particular year.

Creditable earnings. Wages or self-employment earnings posted to a

worker’s earnings record. Such earnings determine eligibility for benefits

and the amount of benefits on that worker’s record. The contribution and

benefit base is the maximum amount of creditable earnings for each worker

in a calendar year.

Current-cost financing. See “Pay-as-you-go financing.”

Current dollars. Amounts expressed in nominal dollars with no adjustment

for inflation.

Currently insured status. A worker is currently insured when he or she has

accumulated six quarters of coverage during the 13-quarter period ending

with the current quarter.

Current-payment status. Status of a beneficiary to whom a benefit is being

paid for a given month (with or without deductions, provided the deductions

add to less than a full month’s benefit).

Deemed filing. Under certain circumstances, a person applying for or receiving either an aged-spouse benefit or a retired-worker benefit is required to

also file for the other of these two types of benefits. For those first eligible

for benefits before 2016, this requirement applies to any person under normal

retirement age who is eligible for the other benefit as of the starting month

for the first benefit. For those first eligible for benefits in 2016 and later, this

requirement applies whenever the person is eligible for the other benefit.

This can occur at any age, and in months after the starting month of the first

benefit.

Deemed wage credit. See “Military service wage credits.”

Delayed retirement credits. Increases in the benefit amount for certain individuals who did not receive benefits for months after attaining normal retirement age but before age 70. Delayed retirement credits apply to benefits for
243

Glossary

January of the year following the year they are earned or for the month of

attainment of age 70, whichever comes first. See table V.C3.

Demographic assumptions. See “Assumptions.”

Disability. For Social Security purposes, the inability to engage in any substantial gainful activity (see “Substantial gainful activity—SGA”) by reason

of any medically determinable physical or mental impairment that can be

expected to result in death or to last for a continuous period of not less than

12 months. Special rules apply for workers at ages 55 and over whose disability is based on blindness.

The law generally requires that a person be disabled continuously for

5 months before he or she can qualify for a disabled-worker benefit.

Disability conversion ratio. For a given year, the ratio of the number of disability conversions to the average number of disabled-worker beneficiaries at

all ages during the year.

Disability conversion. Upon attainment of normal retirement age, a disabled-worker beneficiary is automatically converted to retired-worker status.

Disability incidence rate. The proportion of workers in a given year,

insured for but not receiving disability benefits, who apply for and are

awarded disability benefits.

Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund. See “Trust fund.”

Disability insured status. A worker is disability insured if he or she is: (1) a

fully insured worker who has accumulated 20 quarters of coverage during

the 40-quarter period ending with the current quarter, (2) a fully insured

worker aged 24-30 who has accumulated quarters of coverage during onehalf of the quarters elapsed after the quarter of attainment of age 21 and up to

and including the current quarter, or (3) a fully insured worker under age 24

who has accumulated six quarters of coverage during the 12-quarter period

ending with the current quarter.

Disability prevalence rate. The proportion of persons insured for disability

benefits who are disabled-worker beneficiaries in current-payment status.

Disability termination rate. The proportion of disabled-worker beneficiaries in a given year whose disability benefits terminate as a result of their

recovery or death.

Disabled-worker benefit. A monthly benefit payable to a disabled worker

under normal retirement age and insured for disability. Before

November 1960, disability benefits were limited to disabled workers

aged 50-64.

Dual entitlement. A person may be entitled to more than one benefit at the

same time. For example, a person may be entitled as a retired worker on his

or her own record and as a spouse on another record. However, a person's

benefit amount can never exceed the highest single benefit to which that per-
Appendices

244

son is entitled. Some benefits are calculated independently with the larger

benefit being paid or the smaller benefit being paid plus the excess amount of

the larger one.

Earnings. Unless otherwise qualified, all wages from employment and net

earnings from self-employment, whether or not they are taxable or covered.

Earnings test. The provision requiring the withholding of benefits if beneficiaries under normal retirement age have earnings in excess of certain

exempt amounts. See table V.C1.

Economic assumptions. See “Assumptions.”

Effective interest rate. See “Interest rate.”

Excess wages. Wages in excess of the contribution and benefit base on

which a worker initially makes payroll tax contributions, usually as a result

of working for more than one employer during a year. Employee payroll

taxes on excess wages are refundable to affected employees, while the

employer taxes are not refundable.

Expenditures. Actual payments made or expected to be made under current

law, including benefits paid or payable, administrative expenses, financial

interchange with the Railroad Retirement program, and payments for vocational rehabilitation services for disabled beneficiaries. Includes only the

portion of cost that is payable with the financing provisions in current law.

Exposed population. For any event (such as being awarded a benefit, or

dying), the group that is exposed to the possibility of experiencing the event.

For example, the exposed population for disabled worker awards (incidence)

is the disability insured population less those already receiving benefits.

Federal Insurance Contributions Act—FICA. Provision authorizing payroll taxes on the wages of employed persons to provide for Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance, and for Hospital Insurance. Workers and their

employers generally pay the tax in equal amounts.

Financial interchange. Provisions of the Railroad Retirement Act providing

for transfers between the trust funds and the Social Security Equivalent Benefit Account of the Railroad Retirement program in order to place each trust

fund in the same financial position it would have been had railroad employment always been covered under Social Security.

Fiscal year. The accounting year of the United States Government. Starting

in 1976, a fiscal year is the 12-month period ending September 30. For

example, fiscal year 2023 began October 1, 2022, and will end September

30, 2023.

Full advance funding. A financing method in which contributions are established to match the full cost of future benefits as these costs are incurred

through current service. Such financing methods also provide for amortization over a fixed period of any financial obligation that is incurred at the
245

Glossary

beginning of the program (or subsequent modification) as a result of granting

credit for past service.

Fully insured status. A worker is fully insured when his or her total number

of quarters of coverage is greater than or equal to the number of years

elapsed after the year of attainment of age 21 (but not less than six). Once a

worker has accumulated 40 quarters of coverage, he or she remains permanently fully insured.

General Fund of the Treasury. Funds held by the Treasury of the United

States, other than income collected for a specific purpose (such as Social

Security), and maintained in a separate account for that purpose.

General Fund reimbursements. Payments from the General Fund of the

Treasury to the trust funds for specific items defined in the law, including:

 • The cost of noncontributory wage credits for military service before

1957, and periodic adjustments of previous determinations.

 • The cost in 1971-82 of deemed wage credits for military service performed after 1956.

 • The cost of benefits to certain uninsured persons who attained age 72

before 1968.

 • The cost of payroll tax credits provided to employees in 1984 and selfemployed persons in 1984-89 by Public Law 98-21.

 • The cost in 2009-17 of excluding certain self-employment earnings

from SECA taxes under Public Law 110-246.

 • Payroll tax revenue forgone under the provisions of Public Laws 111-

147, 111-312, 112-78, and 112-96.

 • A portion of proceeds from repayments of loans authorized under Public Law 116-136.

The General Fund also reimburses the trust funds for various other items,

including interest on checks which are not negotiated 6 months after the

month of issue and costs incurred in performing certain legislatively mandated activities not directly related to administering the OASI and DI programs.

Gross domestic product—GDP. The total dollar value of all goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States, regardless

of who supplies the labor or property.

Hospital Insurance (HI) contribution base. Annual dollar amount above

which earnings in employment covered under the HI program are not taxable. (Also referred to as maximum contribution base, taxable maximum,

and maximum taxable.) Beginning in 1994, the HI contribution base was

eliminated.

High-cost assumptions. See “Assumptions.”
Appendices

246

Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund. See “Trust fund.”

Immigration. See “Lawful permanent resident (LPR) immigration” and

“Other-than-LPR immigration.”

Income. Income for a given year is the sum of tax revenue on a cash basis

(payroll tax contributions and income from the taxation of scheduled benefits), reimbursements from the General Fund of the Treasury, if any, and

interest credited to the trust funds.

Income rate. Ratio of non-interest income to the OASDI taxable payroll for

the year.

Infinite horizon. The period extending indefinitely into the future.

Inflation. An increase in the general price level of goods and services.

Insured status. The state or condition of having sufficient quarters of coverage to meet the eligibility requirements for retired-worker or disabled-worker

benefits, or to permit the worker’s spouse and children or survivors to establish eligibility for benefits in the event of his or her disability, retirement, or

death. See “Quarter of coverage.”

Interest. A payment in exchange for the use of money during a specified

period.

Interest rate. Interest rates on new public-debt obligations issuable to Federal trust funds (see “Special public-debt obligation”) are determined

monthly. Such rates are equal to the average market yield on all outstanding

marketable U.S. securities not due or callable until after 4 years from the date

the rate is determined. See table V.B2 for historical and assumed future interest rates on new special-issue securities. The effective interest rate for a trust

fund is the ratio of the interest earned by the fund over a given period of time

to the average level of asset reserves held by the fund during the period. The

effective rate of interest thus represents a measure of the overall average

interest earnings on the fund’s portfolio of investments. See table VI.G6 for

projected compound new-issue interest factors and compound effective trustfund interest factors.

Interfund borrowing. The borrowing of asset reserves by a trust fund

(OASI, DI, or HI) from another trust fund when the first fund is in danger of

depletion. The Social Security Act permitted interfund borrowing only

during 1982 through 1987, and required all amounts borrowed to be repaid

prior to the end of 1989. The only exercise of this authority occurred in 1982,

when the OASI Trust Fund borrowed from the DI and HI Trust Funds. The

final repayment of borrowed amounts occurred in 1986.

Intermediate assumptions. See “Assumptions.”

Lawful permanent resident (LPR) immigration. Persons who enter the

Social Security area population and are granted LPR status, or who are

already in the Social Security area population and adjust their status to

become LPRs. Persons who enter the country with legal visas but without
247

Glossary

LPR status, such as temporary foreign workers and students, are not included

in the “LPR immigration” category.

Legal emigration. Lawful permanent residents and citizens who leave the

Social Security area population.

Life expectancy. Average remaining number of years expected prior to

death. Period life expectancy is calculated for a given year using the actual or

expected death rates at each age for that year. Cohort life expectancy, sometimes referred to as generational life expectancy, is calculated for individuals

at a specific age in a given year using actual or expected death rates from the

years in which the individuals would actually reach each succeeding age if

they survive.

Long-range. The first 75 projection years. The Trustees make long-range

actuarial estimates for this period because it covers approximately the maximum remaining lifetime for virtually all current Social Security participants.

Low-cost assumptions. See “Assumptions.”

Lump-sum death payment. A lump sum, generally $255, payable on the

death of a fully or currently insured worker. The lump sum is payable to the

surviving spouse of the worker, under most circumstances, or to the worker’s

children.

Maximum family benefit. The maximum monthly amount that can be paid

on a worker’s earnings record. Whenever the total of the individual monthly

benefits payable to all the beneficiaries entitled on one earnings record

exceeds the maximum, each dependent’s or survivor’s benefit is proportionately reduced. Benefits payable to divorced spouses or surviving divorced

spouses are not reduced under the family maximum provision.

Medicare. A nationwide, Federally administered health insurance program

authorized in 1965 under Title XVIII of the Social Security Act to cover the

cost of hospitalization, medical care, and some related services for most persons age 65 and over. In 1972, lawmakers extended coverage to persons

receiving Social Security Disability Insurance payments for 2 years and persons with End-Stage Renal Disease. (For beneficiaries whose primary or secondary diagnosis is Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis, the 2-year waiting period

is waived.) In 2010, persons exposed to environmental health hazards within

areas under a corresponding emergency declaration became Medicare-eligible. In 2006, prescription drug coverage was added as well. Medicare consists of two separate but coordinated trust funds—Hospital Insurance (HI,

Part A) and Supplementary Medical Insurance (SMI). The SMI Trust Fund is

composed of two separate accounts—the Part B account and the Part D

account. Almost all persons who are aged 65 and over or disabled and who

are entitled to HI are eligible to enroll in Part B and Part D on a voluntary

basis by paying monthly premiums.
Appendices

248

Military service wage credits. Credits toward OASDI earnings records for

benefit computation purposes, recognizing that military personnel receive

non-wage compensation (such as food and shelter) in addition to their basic

pay and other cash payments. Military personnel do not pay payroll taxes on

these credits. Noncontributory wage credits of $160 were provided for each

month of active military service from September 16, 1940, through December 31, 1956. For years after 1956, the basic pay of military personnel is covered under the Social Security program on a contributory basis. In addition to

the contributory credits for basic pay, noncontributory wage credits of $300

were granted for each calendar quarter, from January 1957 through December 1977, in which a person received pay for military service. Noncontributory wage credits of $100 were granted for each $300 of military wages, up

to a maximum credit of $1,200 per calendar year, from January 1978 through

December 2001.

National average wage index—AWI. See “Average wage index—AWI.”

Non-interest income. Non-interest income for a given year is the sum of tax

revenue on a cash basis (payroll tax contributions and income from the taxation of scheduled benefits) and reimbursements from the General Fund of the

Treasury, if any.

Nonresident alien beneficiary. An OASDI beneficiary who is not a U.S.

citizen and who is living abroad while receiving benefits.

Normal retirement age—NRA. The age at which a person may first

become entitled to retirement benefits without reduction based on age. For

persons reaching age 62 before 2000, the normal retirement age is 65. It

increases gradually to 67 for persons reaching age 62 in 2022 or later, beginning with an increase to 65 years and 2 months for persons reaching age 62

in 2000. See table V.C3.

Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund. See “Trust fund.”

Old-law base. Amount the contribution and benefit base would have been if

the 1977 amendments had not provided for ad hoc increases. The Social

Security Amendments of 1972 provided for automatic annual indexing of the

contribution and benefit base. The Social Security Amendments of 1977

specified ad hoc bases for 1978-81, with subsequent bases updated in accordance with the normal indexing procedure. See table V.C2.

Open-group unfunded obligation. See “Unfunded obligation.”

Other-than-LPR emigration. Other-than-LPR immigrants who leave the

Social Security area population or who adjust their status to become LPRs.

Other-than-LPR immigration. Persons who enter the Social Security area

population and stay to the end of the year without being granted LPR status,

such as undocumented immigrants, and foreign workers and students entering with temporary visas.
249

Glossary

Par value. The value printed on the face of a bond. For special issues held

by the trust funds, par value is the redemption value at any time up to maturity.

Partial advance funding. A financing method in which contribution levels

are established to provide a substantial accumulation of trust fund asset

reserves, thereby generating interest income to the trust funds and reducing

the need for contribution increases or cost reductions in periods when costs

are relatively high or income is relatively low. The trust fund buildup under

partial advance funding is smaller than it would be with full advance funding.

Pay-as-you-go financing. A financing method in which contribution levels

are established with the intent to produce annual income levels required to

pay current benefits, with trust fund asset reserves built up only to the extent

needed to prevent immediate depletion of the fund reserves by random fluctuations.

Payroll tax contributions. The amount based on a percent of earnings, up to

an annual maximum, that must be paid by:

 • employers and employees on wages from employment under the Federal Insurance Contributions Act,

 • the self-employed on net earnings from self-employment under the

Self-Employment Contributions Act, and

 • States on the wages paid in 1986 and earlier to State and local government employees covered under the Social Security Act through voluntary agreements under section 218 of the act.

Also referred to as payroll taxes.

Population in the Social Security area. See “Social Security area population.”

Potential GDP. Sustainable trend level of GDP (see “Gross domestic

product—GDP”). That is, the hypothetical level of GDP that would be

achieved at full sustainable employment and use of capital. For the purposes

of this report, potential GDP is estimated consistent with long-range ultimate

assumptions for the unemployment rate and other economic variables and

can be interpreted as the hypothetical level of GDP in the absence of business cycles and other short-term fluctuations.

Present value. The equivalent value, at the present time, of a stream of values (either income or cost, past or future). Present value is used widely in

calculations involving financial transactions over long periods of time to

account for the time value of money, by discounting or accumulating these

transactions at the rate of interest. Present-value calculations for this report

use the effective yield on combined OASI and DI Trust Fund asset reserves.
Appendices

250

Primary insurance amount—PIA. The monthly amount payable to a

retired worker who begins to receive benefits at normal retirement age or,

generally, to a disabled worker. This amount, which is typically related to the

worker’s average monthly wage or average indexed monthly earnings, is also

used as a base for computing all types of benefits payable on an individual’s

earnings record.

Primary-insurance-amount formula. The mathematical formula relating

the PIA to the AIME for workers who attain age 62, become disabled, or die

after 1978. The PIA is equal to the sum of 90 percent of AIME up to the first

bend point, plus 32 percent of AIME above the first bend point up to the second bend point, plus 15 percent of AIME in excess of the second bend point.

Automatic benefit increases are applied beginning with the year of eligibility.

See table V.C2 for historical and assumed future bend points and table V.C1

for historical and assumed future benefit increases.

Quarter of coverage. Basic unit of measurement for determining insured

status. For 1978, a worker earned one quarter of coverage, up to four, for

each $250 of that worker’s annual covered earnings. After 1978, the $250

amount increases automatically with increases in the national average wage

index. See table V.C2. 

Railroad Retirement. A Federal insurance program, similar to Social Security, designed for workers in the railroad industry. The provisions of the Railroad Retirement Act provide for a system of coordination and financial

interchange between the Railroad Retirement program and the Social Security program.

Reallocation of payroll tax rates. An increase in the payroll tax rate for

either the OASI or DI Trust Fund, with a corresponding reduction in the rate

for the other fund, so that the total OASDI payroll tax rate is not changed. 

Real wage differential. The difference between the percentage increases in:

(1) the average annual wage in covered employment and (2) the average

annual Consumer Price Index. See section V.B.

Recession. A period of adverse economic conditions, generally defined as

two or more successive calendar quarters of negative real growth in gross

domestic product.

Reserves. See “Trust fund reserves.”

Retired-worker benefit. A monthly benefit payable to a fully insured retired

worker aged 62 or older or to a person entitled under the transitionally

insured status provision in the law.

Retirement earnings test. See “Earnings test.”

Retirement eligibility age. The age, currently age 62, at which a fully

insured individual first becomes eligible to receive retired-worker benefits.

Scheduled benefits. The level of benefits specified under current law.
251

Glossary

Scenario-based model. A model with specified assumptions for and relationships among variables. Under such a model, any specified set of assumptions determines a single outcome directly reflecting the specifications.

Self-employment. Operation of a trade or business by an individual or by a

partnership in which an individual is a member.

Self-Employment Contributions Act–SECA. Provision authorizing Social

Security payroll taxes on the net earnings of most self-employed persons.

Short-range. The first 10 projection years. The Social Security Act requires

estimates for 5 years; the Trustees prepare estimates for an additional 5 years

to help clarify trends that are only starting to develop in the mandated first 5-

year period. 

Social Security Act. Provisions of the law governing most operations of the

Social Security program. The original Social Security Act is Public

Law 74-271, enacted August 14, 1935. With subsequent amendments, the

Social Security Act consists of 21 titles, of which three have been repealed.

Title II of the Social Security Act authorizes the Old-Age, Survivors, and

Disability Insurance program.

Social Security area population. The population composed of: (1) residents

of the 50 States and the District of Columbia (adjusted for net census undercount); (2) civilian residents of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Guam,

American Samoa, and the Northern Mariana Islands; (3) Federal civilian

employees and persons in the U.S. Armed Forces abroad and their dependents; (4) non-citizens living abroad who are insured for Social Security benefits; and (5) all other U.S. citizens abroad.

Solvency. A program is solvent at a point in time if it is able to pay scheduled benefits when due with scheduled financing. For example, the OASDI

program is solvent over any period for which the trust funds maintain a positive level of asset reserves.

Special public-debt obligation. Securities of the United States Government

issued exclusively to the OASI, DI, HI, and SMI Trust Funds and other Federal trust funds. Section 201(d) of the Social Security Act provides that the

public-debt obligations issued for purchase by the OASI and DI Trust Funds

shall have maturities fixed with due regard for the needs of the funds. The

usual practice has been to spread the holdings of special issues, as of each

June 30, so that the amounts maturing in each of the next 15 years are

approximately equal. Special public-debt obligations are redeemable at par

value at any time and carry interest rates determined by law (see “Interest

rate”). See tables VI.A4 and VI.A5 for a listing of the obligations held by the

OASI and DI Trust Funds, respectively.

Stochastic model. A model used for projecting a probability distribution of

potential outcomes. Such models allow for random variation in one or more

variables through time. The random variation is generally based on fluctuations observed in historical data for a selected period. A large number of sim-
Appendices

252

ulations, each of which reflects random variation in the variable(s), produce

a distribution of potential outcomes.

Substantial gainful activity—SGA. The level of work activity used to

establish disability. A finding of disability requires that a person be unable to

engage in substantial gainful activity. A person who earns more than a certain monthly amount (net of impairment-related work expenses) is ordinarily

considered to be engaging in SGA. The amount of monthly earnings considered as SGA depends on the nature of a person’s disability. The Social Security Act specifies a higher SGA amount for statutorily blind individuals;

Federal regulations specify a lower SGA amount for non-blind individuals.

Both SGA amounts increase with increases in the national average wage

index.

Summarized balance. The difference between the summarized income rate

and the summarized cost rate, expressed as a percentage of GDP. The difference between the summarized income rate and cost rate as a percentage of

taxable payroll is referred to as the actuarial balance.

Summarized cost rate. The ratio of the present value of cost to the present

value of the taxable payroll (or GDP) for the years in a given period,

expressed as a percentage. To evaluate the financial adequacy of the program, the summarized cost rate is adjusted to include the cost of reaching

and maintaining a target trust fund level. A trust fund level of about 1 year’s

cost is considered to be an adequate reserve for unforeseen contingencies;

therefore, the targeted trust fund ratio is 100 percent of annual cost. Accordingly, the adjusted summarized cost rate is equal to the ratio of: (1) the sum

of the present value of the cost during the period plus the present value of the

targeted ending trust fund level to (2) the present value of the taxable payroll

(or GDP) during the projection period.

Summarized income rate. The ratio of the present value of scheduled noninterest income to the present value of taxable payroll (or GDP) for the years

in a given period, expressed as a percentage. To evaluate the financial adequacy of the program, the summarized income rate is adjusted to include

asset reserves on hand at the beginning of the period. Accordingly, the

adjusted summarized income rate equals the ratio of: (1) the sum of the trust

fund reserve at the beginning of the period plus the present value of noninterest income during the period to (2) the present value of the taxable payroll (or GDP) for the years in the period.

Supplemental Security Income—SSI. A Federally administered program

(often with State supplementation) of cash assistance for needy aged, blind,

or disabled persons. The General Fund of the Treasury funds Federal expenditures for the SSI program. The Social Security Administration administers

it.

Supplementary Medical Insurance (SMI) Trust Fund. See “Trust fund.”
253

Glossary

Survivor benefit. Benefit payable to a survivor of a deceased worker.

Sustainable solvency. Sustainable solvency for the financing of the program

under a specified set of assumptions is achieved when the projected trust

fund ratio is positive throughout the 75-year projection period and is either

stable or rising at the end of the period.

Taxable earnings. Wages or self-employment income, in employment covered by the OASDI or HI programs, that is under the applicable annual maximum taxable limit. For 1994 and later, no maximum taxable limit applies to

the HI program.

Taxable payroll. A weighted sum of taxable wages and taxable self-employment income. When multiplied by the combined employee-employer payroll

tax rate, taxable payroll yields the total amount of payroll taxes incurred by

employees, employers, and the self-employed for work during the period.

Taxable self-employment income. The maximum amount of net earnings

from self-employment by an earner which, when added to any taxable

wages, does not exceed the contribution and benefit base. For HI beginning

in 1994, all net earnings from self-employment.

Taxable wages. See “Taxable earnings.”

Taxation of benefits. Beginning in 1984, Federal law subjected up to

50 percent of an individual’s or a couple’s OASDI benefits to Federal income

taxation under certain circumstances. Treasury allocates the revenue derived

from this provision to the OASI and DI Trust Funds on the basis of the

income taxes paid on the benefits from each fund. Beginning in 1994, the

law increased the maximum percentage from 50 percent to 85 percent. The

HI Trust Fund receives the additional tax revenue resulting from the increase

to 85 percent.

Taxes. See “Payroll tax contributions” and “Taxation of benefits.”

Termination. Cessation of payment because the beneficiary is no longer

entitled to receive a specific type of benefit. For example, benefits might terminate as a result of the death of the beneficiary, the recovery of a disabled

beneficiary, or the attainment of age 18 by a child beneficiary. In some cases,

an individual may cease one benefit and this is not a termination because

they become immediately entitled to another type of benefit, such as the conversion of a disabled-worker beneficiary at normal retirement age to a

retired-worker beneficiary.

Test of long-range close actuarial balance. The conditions required to

meet this test are: 

 • The trust fund satisfies the test of short-range financial adequacy; and 

 • The trust fund ratio stays above zero throughout the 75-year projection

period, such that benefits would be payable in a timely manner throughout the period. 
Appendices

254

The Trustees apply the test to OASI, DI, and the combined OASDI program

based on the intermediate set of assumptions.

Test of short-range financial adequacy. The conditions required to meet

this test are:

 • If the trust fund ratio is at least 100 percent at the beginning of the

10-year projection period, then it must remain at or above 100 percent

throughout the entire projection period;

 • If the ratio is initially less than 100 percent, then it must reach at least

100 percent within 5 years (without reserve depletion at any time during

this period) and then remain at or above 100 percent throughout the

remainder of the 10-year period. 

The Trustees apply the test to OASI, DI, and the combined OASDI program

based on the intermediate set of assumptions.

Total-economy productivity. The ratio of real GDP to hours worked by all

workers. Also referred to as “labor productivity.”

Total fertility rate. The sum of the single-year-of-age birth rates for girls

and women aged 14 through 49, where the rate for age 14 includes births to

girls aged 14 and under, and the rate for age 49 includes births to women

aged 49 and over. The total fertility rate may be interpreted as the average

number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to experience,

at each age of her life, the birth rate observed in, or assumed for, a specified

year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period.

Trust fund. Separate accounts in the United States Treasury which hold the

payroll taxes received under the Federal Insurance Contributions Act and the

Self-Employment Contributions Act; payroll taxes resulting from coverage

of State and local government employees; any sums received under the

financial interchange with the railroad retirement account; voluntary hospital

and medical insurance premiums; and reimbursements or payments from the

General Fund of the Treasury. As required by law, the Department of the

Treasury invests funds not required to meet current expenditures in interestbearing securities backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. Government.

The interest earned is also deposited in the trust funds.

 • Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI). The trust fund used for

paying monthly benefits to retired-worker (old-age) beneficiaries, their

spouses and children, and to survivors of deceased insured workers.

 • Disability Insurance (DI). The trust fund used for paying monthly benefits to disabled-worker beneficiaries, their spouses and children, and

for providing rehabilitation services to the disabled.
255

Glossary

 • Hospital Insurance (HI). The Medicare trust fund that covers specified

inpatient hospital services, posthospital skilled nursing care, home

health services, and hospice care for aged and disabled individuals who

meet the eligibility requirements. Also known as Medicare Part A.

 • Supplementary Medical Insurance (SMI). The Medicare trust fund

composed of the Part B Account, the Part D Account, and the Transitional Assistance Account. The Part B Account pays for a portion of the

costs of physicians’ services, outpatient hospital services, and other

related medical and health services for voluntarily enrolled aged and

disabled individuals. The Part D Account pays private plans to provide

prescription drug coverage, beginning in 2006. The Transitional Assistance Account paid for transitional assistance under the prescription

drug card program in 2004 and 2005.

The trust funds are distinct legal entities which operate independently. Fund

operations are sometimes combined on a hypothetical basis.

Trust fund ratio. A measure of trust fund adequacy. The asset reserves at

the beginning of a year (equal to the reserves at the end of the prior year),

which do not include advance tax transfers, expressed as a percentage of the

cost for the year. The trust fund ratio represents the proportion of a year’s

cost which could be paid solely with the reserves at the beginning of the year.

Trust fund reserve depletion. The point at which reserves in a trust fund are

insufficient to pay scheduled benefits in full and on time.

Trust fund reserves. The cumulative excess of trust fund income over trust

fund cost over all years to date. These reserves are held by the trust funds in

the form of Treasury notes and bonds, other securities guaranteed by the Federal Government, certain Federally sponsored agency obligations, and cash.

Trustees. See “Board of Trustees.”

Undisbursed balances. In general, refers to the cumulative differences

between the actual cash payments for a month compared to security redemptions from the trust fund reserves made on a preliminary basis to cover such

cash payments during the same month. On a monthly basis, the Social Security Administration (SSA) pays benefits and makes payments for other programmatic expenses associated with the trust funds. During each month,

SSA draws cash from the trust funds on a preliminary basis, which results in

Treasury redeeming invested securities to cover such payments. This

monthly difference can be either positive or negative depending on net

monthly activity, and is added to the balance at the end of the prior month. 

A net positive undisbursed balance represents a situation where cumulative

redemptions from the trust fund’s securities are more than was needed to

cover actual program cash payments through the end of the month. A net

negative balance represents a situation where cumulative program cash pay-
Appendices

256

ments exceeded the amount redeemed from the invested securities. A negative value requires future redemption of additional invested securities. 

In addition, about every seven years, when January 3 falls on a Sunday, benefit payments scheduled to be paid on January 3rd are actually paid on

December 31 of the preceding year, as required by the statutory provision

included in the 1977 Social Security Amendments for early delivery of benefit payments when the normal payment delivery date is a Saturday, Sunday,

or legal public holiday. Consistent with practice in prior reports and for comparability with other historical years and the projections in this report, all

trust fund operations and asset reserves reflect the 12 months of benefits

scheduled for payment in each year. Therefore, such advance payments are

included as positive values in the undisbursed balance at the end of the calendar years in which the advance payments are made.

Unfunded obligation. A measure of the shortfall of trust fund income to

fully cover program cost through a specified date after depletion of trust fund

asset reserves. This measure can be expressed in present value dollars, discounted to the beginning of the valuation period, by computing the excess of

the present value of the projected cost of the program through a specified

date over the sum of: (1) the value of trust fund reserves at the beginning of

the valuation period; and (2) the present value of the projected non-interest

income of the program through a specified date, assuming scheduled tax

rates and benefit levels. This measure can apply for all participants through a

specified date, i.e., the open group, or be limited to a specified subgroup of

participants.

Unfunded obligation ratio. The unfunded obligation accumulated through

the beginning of a year expressed as a percentage of the cost for the year.

Unnegotiated check. A check which has not been cashed 6 months after the

end of the month in which the check was issued. When a check has been outstanding for a year, the Department of the Treasury administratively cancels

the check and reimburses the issuing trust fund separately for the amount of

the check and interest for the period the check was outstanding. The appropriate trust fund also receives an interest adjustment for the time the check

was outstanding if it is cashed 6 to 12 months after the month of issue. If a

check is presented for payment after it has been administratively canceled, a

replacement check is issued.

Valuation period. A period of years which is considered as a unit for purposes of calculating the financial status of a trust fund.

Vocational rehabilitation (VR). Services provided to disabled persons to

help them to return to gainful employment. VR services are designed to provide an individual with the training or other services that are needed to return

to work, to begin working, or to enter a new line of work. The trust funds,

and the General Fund in the case of individuals also receiving Supplemental
257

Glossary

Security Income disability benefits, reimburse the providers of such services

only in those cases where the services contributed to the successful rehabilitation of the beneficiaries.
List of Tables

258

LIST OF TABLE

II. OVERVIEW

II.B1 Summary of 2022 Trust Fund Financial Operations . . . . . . . . 7

II.B2 Payroll Tax Contribution Rates for 2022 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

II.C1 Key Assumptions and Summary Measures 

for the Last 65 Years of 

the Long-Range (75-Year) Projection Period . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

II.D1 Projected Maximum Trust Fund Ratios During the Long-Range 

Period and Trust Fund Reserve Depletion Dates. . . . . . . . . . . 16

II.D2 Reasons for Change in the 75-Year Actuarial Balance,

Based on Intermediate Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

III. FINANCIAL OPERATIONS OF THE TRUST FUNDS AND

LEGISLATIVE CHANGES IN THE LAST YEAR

III.A1 Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Calendar Year 2022 . . . . 30

III.A2 Operations of the DI Trust Fund, Calendar Year 2022 . . . . . . . 34

III.A3 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, 

Calendar Year 2022 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

III.A4 Comparison of Actual Calendar Year 2022 Trust Fund 

Operations With Estimates Made in Prior Reports, Based on 

Intermediate Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

III.A5 Distribution of Benefit Payments by Type of Beneficiary or 

Payment, Calendar Years 2021 and 2022 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

III.A6 Administrative Expenses as a Percentage of Total Income and 

of Total Cost, Calendar Years 2018-2022 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

III.A7 Trust Fund Investment Transactions, Calendar Year 2022 . . . . 39

IV. ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES

IV.A1 Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, 

Calendar Years 2018-2032 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

IV.A2 Operations of the DI Trust Fund, 

Calendar Years 2018-2032 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47

IV.A3 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds,

Calendar Years 2018-2032 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

IV.A4 Reasons for Change in Trust Fund (Unfunded Obligation) Ratios 

at the Beginning of the Tenth Year of Projection 

Under Intermediate Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52

IV.B1 Annual Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances,

Calendar Years 1990-2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56

IV.B2 Components of Annual Income Rates, 

Calendar Years 1990-2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
List of Tables

259

IV.B3 Covered Workers and Beneficiaries, 

Calendar Years 1945-2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63

IV.B4 Trust Fund Ratios, Calendar Years 2023-2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . 68

IV.B5 Components of Summarized Income Rates and Cost Rates, 

Calendar Years 2023-2097 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72

IV.B6 Components of 75-Year Actuarial Balance and 

Unfunded ObligationnUnder Intermediate Assumptions . . . . . 75

IV.B7 Reasons for Change in the 75-Year Actuarial Balance,

Based on Intermediate Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76

V. ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS UNDERLYING

ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES

V.A1 Fertility and Mortality Assumptions, 

Calendar Years 1940-2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88

V.A2 Immigration Assumptions, Calendar Years 1940-2100 . . . . . . 94

V.A3 Social Security Area Population on July 1 and 

Dependency Ratios, Calendar Years 1945-2100 . . . . . . . . . . . 97

V.A4 Period Life Expectancy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100

V.A5 Cohort Life Expectancy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101

V.B1 Principal Economic Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110

V.B2 Additional Economic Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116

V.C1 Cost-of-Living Benefit Increases, Average Wage Index, 

Contribution and Benefit Bases, and Retirement Earnings Test 

Exempt Amounts, 1975-2032 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121

V.C2 Values for Selected Wage-Indexed Program Parameters, 

Calendar Years 1978-2032 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125

V.C3 Legislated Changes in Normal Retirement Age and Delayed 

Retirement Credits for Persons Attaining Age 62 in Each Year 

1986 and Later. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127

V.C4 OASI Beneficiaries With Benefits in Current-Payment Status

at the End of Calendar Years 1945-2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135

V.C5 DI Beneficiaries With Benefits in Current-Payment Status

at the End of Calendar Years 1960-2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144

V.C6 Contribution and Benefit Base and 

Payroll Tax Contribution Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151

V.C7 Annual Scheduled Benefit Amounts for Retired Workers 

With Various Pre-Retirement Earnings Patterns 

Based on Intermediate Assumptions, 

Calendar Years 2023-2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156
List of Tables

260

VI. APPENDICES

A. HISTORY OF OASI AND DI TRUST FUND OPERATIONS

VI.A1 Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, 

Calendar Years 1937-2022 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162

VI.A2 Operations of the DI Trust Fund, 

Calendar Years 1957-2022 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165

VI.A3 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds,

Calendar Years 1957-2022 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167

VI.A4 OASI Trust Fund Asset Reserves, End of 

Calendar Years 2021 and 2022 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169

VI.A5 DI Trust Fund Asset Reserves, End of 

Calendar Years 2021 and 2022 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170

B. HISTORY OF ACTUARIAL STATUS ESTIMATES

VI.B1 Long-Range OASDI Actuarial Balances and Trust Fund 

Reserve Depletion Dates as Shown in the Trustees Reports 

for 1982-2023 under Intermediate Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . 173

C. FISCAL YEAR HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED TRUST FUND OPERATIONS THROUGH 2032

VI.C1 Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Fiscal Year 2022 . . . . . . . 179

VI.C2 Operations of the DI Trust Fund, Fiscal Year 2022 . . . . . . . . . 180

VI.C3 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, 

Fiscal Year 2022 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181

VI.C4 Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, 

Fiscal Years 2018-2032 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183

VI.C5 Operations of the DI Trust Fund, Fiscal Years 2018-2032 . . . . 184

VI.C6 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds,

Fiscal Years 2018-2032. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185

D. LONG-RANGE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

VI.D1 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Fertility Assumptions . . . . 187

VI.D2 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Death-Rate Assumptions . . 188

VI.D3 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to 

Total Net Immigration Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190

VI.D4 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to 

Real Wage Growth Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191

VI.D5 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to 

CPI-Increase Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192

VI.D6 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to 

Real Interest Rate Assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193
List of Tables

261

VI.D7 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to 

Taxable Ratio Assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194

VI.D8 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to 

Disability Incidence Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196

VI.D9 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to 

Disability Termination Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197

E. STOCHASTIC PROJECTIONS AND UNCERTAINTY

VI.E1 Long-Range Estimates Relating to the Actuarial Status of

the Combined OASDI Program. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207

F. INFINITE HORIZON PROJECTIONS

VI.F1 Unfunded OASDI Obligations Through the Infinite Horizon 

and the 75-Year Projection Period, 

Based on Intermediate Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209

VI.F2 Present Values Through the Infinite Horizon 

for Various Categories of Program Participants, 

Based on Intermediate Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211

G. ESTIMATES FOR OASDI AND HI, SEPARATE AND COMBINED

VI.G1 Payroll Tax Contribution Rates for 

the OASDI and HI Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213

VI.G2 OASDI and HI Annual Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances,

Calendar Years 2023-2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215

VI.G3 Summarized OASDI and HI Income Rates and Cost Rates for 

Valuation Periods, Calendar Years 2023-2097 . . . . . . . . . . . . 217

VI.G4 OASDI and HI Annual and Summarized Income, Cost, and 

Balance as a Percentage of GDP, 

Calendar Years 2023-2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220

VI.G5 Ratio of OASDI Taxable Payroll to GDP, 

Calendar Years 2023-2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222

VI.G6 Selected Economic Variables, Calendar Years 2022-2100 . . . . 225

VI.G7 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds,

in CPI-Indexed 2023 Dollars, Calendar Years 2023-2100 . . . . 227

VI.G8 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, 

in Current Dollars, Calendar Years 2023-2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . 229

VI.G9 OASDI and HI Annual Non-Interest Income, Cost, and

Balance in CPI-Indexed 2023 Dollars, 

Calendar Years 2023-2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231

VI.G10 OASDI and HI Annual Non-Interest Income, Cost, and

Balance in Current Dollars, Calendar Years 2023-2100. . . . . . 233
List of Tables

262

H. ANALYSIS OF BENEFIT PAYMENTS FROM THE OASI 

TRUST FUND WITH RESPECT TO DISABLED BENEFICIARIES

VI.H1 Scheduled Benefit Payments From the OASI Trust Fund

With Respect to Disabled Beneficiaries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236

VI.H2 Scheduled Benefit Payments Under the OASDI Program

With Respect to Disabled Beneficiaries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238
List of Figures

263

LIST OF FIGURES

II. OVERVIEW

II.D1 Short-Range OASI and DI Combined Trust Fund Ratio . . . . . 12

II.D2 OASDI Income, Cost, and Expenditures as Percentages 

of Taxable Payroll . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

II.D3 Number of Covered Workers Per OASDI Beneficiary. . . . . . . 15

II.D4 OASDI Cost and Non-Interest Income 

as a Percentage of GDP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

II.D5 Cumulative Scheduled OASDI Income Less Cost,

From Program Inception Through Years 2022-2097 . . . . . . . . 19

II.D6 Long-Range OASI and DI Combined Trust Fund Ratios 

Under Alternative Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

II.D7 Long-Range OASI and DI Trust Fund Ratios. . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

II.D8 Long-Range OASI and DI Combined Trust Fund Ratios 

From Stochastic Modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

II.D9 OASDI Annual Balances: 2022 and 2023 Trustees Reports. . . 24

IV. ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES

IV.A1 Short-Range OASI and DI Trust Fund Ratios. . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

IV.B1 Long-Range OASI and DI Annual Income Rates 

and Cost Rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60

IV.B2 Number of OASDI Beneficiaries Per 100 Covered Workers . . 65

IV.B3 Long-Range OASI and DI Trust Fund Ratios . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69

IV.B4 OASDI Annual Balances: 2022 and 2023 Trustees Reports. . . 81

V. ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS UNDERLYING

ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES

V.C1 Primary-Insurance-Amount Formula 

for Those Newly Eligible in 2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123

V.C2 OASI Maximum-Family-Benefit Formula 

for Those Newly Eligible in 2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124

V.C3 DI Disability Incidence Rates, 1970-2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140

V.C4 DI Disability Termination Rates, 1970-2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142

V.C5 Comparison of DI Disability Incidence Rates, 

Termination Rates and Conversion Ratios 

Under Intermediate Assumptions, 1970-2100- . . . . . . . . . . . . 143

V.C6 DI Disability Prevalence Rates, 1970-2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146
List of Figures

264

VI. APPENDICES

VI.E1 Long-Range OASDI Cost Rates From Stochastic Modeling . . 201

VI.E2 Long-Range OASDI Trust Fund Ratios 

From Stochastic Modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202

VI.E3 OASDI Cost Rates: Comparison of Stochastic to Low-Cost, 

Intermediate, and High-Cost Alternative Scenarios. . . . . . . . . 203

VI.E4 OASDI Trust Fund (Unfunded Obligation) Ratios: 

Comparison of Stochastic to Low-Cost, Intermediate, 

and High-Cost Alternative Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205

VI.G1 Estimated OASDI Income and Cost in CPI-Indexed 

2023 Dollars, Based on Intermediate Assumptions . . . . . . . . . 228
265

Index

INDEX

A

Actuarial balance 12, 17, 53, 70, 75, 171, 186

Actuarial deficit 4, 17, 26, 72, 217

Actuarial estimates, LR 53

Actuarial estimates, SR 41

Adjusted program amounts 119

Administrative expenses 7, 38, 54, 157, 161, 179, 218, 226

Advance tax transfers 41, 66, 164

Amendments 40

Annual balance 23, 53, 76

Asset reserves 2, 7, 11, 32, 179, 193, 212

Assumptions 82, 102, 119, 171, 186, 213, 218, 223, 235

Automatic cost-of-living benefit increase 46, 104, 119

Auxiliary benefits 129

Average benefits 153

Average earnings assumptions 105

Average indexed monthly earnings (AIME) 123

Average wage index 119, 223

Award 131

B

Baby-boom generation 25, 54, 63, 112, 138

Bend points 123

Beneficiaries, DI 137

Beneficiary 14, 46, 63, 82, 120, 174, 187, 218, 226, 235

Beneficiary, OASI 131

Benefit payments 7, 54, 154, 161, 179

Benefit termination 9

Best estimate 9, 41, 82

Board of Trustees 41, 102, 159

C

Constant dollars 228

Consumer Price Index 104, 192, 223, 240

Contribution and benefit base 45, 106, 120, 240

Contributions 7, 159, 179, 212, 218, 226, 239

Cost 3, 7, 32, 48

Cost rate 4, 54, 212

Cost-of-living adjustment 119

Covered earnings 7, 119, 222

Covered employment 10, 45, 106, 127, 159

Covered worker 65, 189

Creditable earnings 242

Current dollars 223
Index

266

Current-payment status 48, 142, 143, 144, 240

D

Deemed wage credit 54

Delayed retirement credit 126

Demographic assumptions 9, 23, 41, 83, 112, 119, 171, 224, 239

Deterministic model 198

DI beneficiaries 137

Disability 159, 189, 235

Disability conversion ratio 142

Disability incidence rate 82, 137, 140, 189, 195, 239

Disability Insurance Trust Fund 241

Disability prevalence rate 144, 146

Disability termination rate 196

Disabled-worker benefit 140, 243

Disbursements 41

E

Earnings 2, 7, 54, 105, 120, 159, 172, 212, 222, 223, 239

Earnings test 120, 240

Economic assumptions 9, 23, 41, 51, 102, 112, 119, 171, 224, 239

Excess wages 54, 223

Expenditures 41, 244

exposed population 131, 139, 195, 244

F

Federal Insurance Contributions Act 212, 249

Fertility assumptions 83

Financial interchange 7, 158, 161

Fiscal year 164, 178

Full advance funding 244

G

General Fund of the Treasury 44, 46, 48, 50, 164, 166, 168, 183, 184, 185,

239

General fund reimbursement 245

Gross domestic product 4, 12, 60, 82, 103, 114, 218

Gross domestic product projections 114

H

High-cost assumptions 10, 19, 41, 55, 82, 102, 141, 186, 206, 213, 223, 239

Hospital Insurance program 150, 212, 247

Hospital Insurance Trust Fund 218

I

Immigration 9, 82, 89, 189, 239, 246
267

Index

Immigration assumptions 89

Income rate 4, 13, 54, 212

Infinite horizon 12

Inflation 9, 82, 104, 223, 239

Inflation assumptions 104

Insured population 9, 128

Insured status 124

Interest 115, 160, 171, 179, 214, 239

Interest rate 82, 171, 193, 239

Interest rate projections 115

Interest rates 9

Interfund borrowing 164, 246

Intermediate assumptions 10, 41, 46, 55, 82, 141, 186, 214, 218, 223, 227,

228, 229, 235, 239

L

Labor force projections 111

Lawful Permanent Resident (LPR) immigration 90

Legal immigration 246, 247

Life expectancy 82, 99, 111, 247

Life expectancy estimates 98

Long range 12, 53, 83, 131, 171, 212, 218

Low-cost assumptions 10, 19, 41, 55, 82, 102, 141, 186, 206, 213, 223, 239

Lump-sum death payment 154

M

Medicare 85, 247

Military service 54, 159, 164, 166, 168

N

National average wage index 223

Normal retirement age 120, 137, 154, 242

O

OASI beneficiaries 131

Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund 159, 241

Old-law base 124

Other immigration 248

Other-than-LPR immigration 90

P

Par value 161

Partial advance funding 249

Pay-as-you-go financing 171

Payroll taxes 2, 119, 147, 174, 208, 212, 226

Population estimates 96
Index

268

Population in the Social Security area 45, 65, 96, 127, 190

posed 4

Present value 171

Primary insurance amount (PIA) 123

Productivity assumptions 103

Q

Quarters of coverage 128

R

Railroad Retirement 54, 70, 124, 158, 161, 179, 180, 181, 212, 218, 226,

241

Reallocation of tax rates 250

Real-wage differential 108, 190

Retired-worker benefit 131, 189, 235

Retirement age 120, 154, 242

Retirement earnings test 120

Retirement eligibility age 189

S

Scenario-based model 251

Scheduled benefits 192, 218, 226, 237, 250

Self-employment 54, 104, 213, 249

Self-Employment Contributions Act 249, 251

Sensitivity analysis 186

Short range 11, 41, 131

Social Security Act 119, 160, 223, 235, 241

Social Security amendments 40

Solvency 251

Special public-debt obligation 118, 160, 193

Stochastic projections 198

Substantial gainful activity 137, 243

Summarized balance 219

Summarized income and cost rates 70, 171, 186, 216, 239

Supplemental Security Income 179

Supplementary Medical Insurance program 212, 247

Survivor benefit 2, 8, 134, 240

Sustainable solvency 66, 67

T

Taxable earnings 45, 65, 120, 172, 240

Taxable payroll 4, 26, 54, 104, 128, 171, 187, 212, 218, 223, 241

Taxable ratio 194

Taxable self-employment income 253

Taxable wages 152, 213, 253
269

Index

Taxation of benefits 7, 152, 218, 226, 246

Taxes 7, 119, 213

Termination 82

Termination rate 9, 131, 196, 239

Test of long-range close actuarial balance 53, 66, 68

Test of short-range financial adequacy 11, 12, 42, 43, 68, 69, 253, 254

Total fertility rate 84, 186

Trust fund financial operations 7, 28, 42, 159

Trust fund ratio 11, 41, 53, 66, 164, 183, 255

Trust fund reserves 41

U

Unemployment projections 111

Unfunded obligation 4, 12, 17, 19, 53, 73, 74, 209, 210, 248, 255, 256

Unnegotiated check 179

V

Valuation period 17, 51, 53, 171, 186, 216, 239

Vocational rehabilitation 54, 161, 180, 218, 226, 237, 241

Y

Year of depletion 13, 16, 53, 68
270

STATEMENT OF ACTUARIAL OPINION

It is my opinion that: (1) the techniques and methodology used herein to

evaluate the actuarial status of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance

and Disability Insurance Trust Funds are based upon sound principles of

actuarial practice and are generally accepted within the actuarial profession;

and (2) the assumptions used and the resulting actuarial estimates are, individually and in the aggregate, reasonable for the purpose of evaluating the

actuarial status of the trust funds, taking into consideration the past experience and future expectations for the population, the economy, and the program. I am a member of the American Academy of Actuaries and I meet the

Qualification Standards of the American Academy of Actuaries to render this

actuarial opinion.

Stephen C. Goss

Associate, Society of Actuaries

Member, American Academy of Actuaries

Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration