SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

June 22, 2023

The Honorable Ron Wyden

Committee on Finance

United States Senate

Washington, D.C. 20510

The Honorable Bill Cassidy

Committee on Finance

United States Senate

Washington, D.C. 20510

Dear Chairman Wyden and Senator Cassidy:

I am writing in response to your request for our estimate of the financial effects on

the Social Security Trust Funds of the “Work Without Worry Act,” which you introduced today. 

This Bill would change current law so that individuals with a qualifying medically-determined 

disabling impairment that can reasonably be presumed to have begun before attaining age 22 

may qualify for an initial childhood disability benefit after attaining age 22, regardless of 

whether they have worked at the level of substantial gainful activity after attaining age 22. Our 

analysis and estimates reflect the efforts of many in the Office of the Chief Actuary, but

particularly Daniel Nickerson, Chris Chaplain, Kyle Burkhalter, Anna Kirjusina, Michael 

Stephens, and Karen Glenn.

Under current law, an individual may not become initially entitled for a childhood disability 

benefit based on a qualifying worker’s earnings record (generally a parent’s earnings record) if 

the individual has worked at the level of substantial gainful activity after age 22, because such 

prior earnings are deemed to indicate that the individual has not been continuously disabled 

starting before attainment of age 22. Enactment of this bill would instead require that the 

qualifying physical and/or mental impairments establish disability without regard to any post-age 

22 earnings. 

The draft bill further specifies that any individual applying for a childhood disability benefit 

before attaining age 62 who is disability insured will be deemed to have applied for a disabled 

worker benefit, and any individual applying for a childhood disability benefit after attaining age 

62 who is fully insured will be deemed to have applied for a retired worker benefit. 

These changes would be effective for applications made on or after the 24th month after 

enactment of the bill. The intent, as stated in the bill, is to “eliminate work disincentives for 

childhood disability beneficiaries.”

We estimate that if the provision in this bill to allow initial childhood disability entitlement 

regardless of any SGA earnings past age 22 were already in the law, then the number of
Page 2 – The Honorable Ron Wyden and the Honorable Bill Cassidy

individuals currently entitled for childhood disability benefits would be about 6,000 higher than 

it is under current law (1.14 million as of December 2022). By the end of 2032, we expect the 

number of such individuals to increase to about 7,000. With assumed enactment of the bill on 

July 1, 2023, most of the full 7,000 increase would be realized by 2032. The program benefit 

cost for the OASDI program would be increased by about $390 million over the period 2023

through 2032 as a result of enacting this bill.

Over the 75-year long-range projection period, we estimate that enactment of the bill would 

increase OASDI program cost by a negligible amount (less than 0.005 percent of taxable 

payroll), thus having no significant effect on the OASDI actuarial balance. These estimates 

reflect the updated baseline of the 2023 Trustees Report intermediate projections.

We hope these estimates will be helpful. Please let us know if we may provide further assistance.

Sincerely,

 

Stephen C. Goss, ASA, MAAA

Chief Actuary