SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE, MD 21235-0001

June 21, 2011

The Honorable Xavier Becerra

Ranking Member, Subcommittee on Social Security

Committee on Ways and Means

House of Representatives

Washington, D.C. 20515

Dear Mr. Becerra:

I am writing in response to your letter of June 14, 2011 requesting analysis of effects on Social 

Security financial status and on benefit levels for retirees assuming enactment of two potential 

modifications to the automatic annual cost of living adjustment (COLA). Alice Wade, Chris 

Chaplain, Dan Nickerson, Jason Schultz, Katie Kraft, and Michael Clingman have developed the 

estimates shown in the enclosed tables based on further discussion and clarification with Morna 

Miller and Kathryn Olson, Staff of the Subcommittee. 

We have developed estimates showing the expected effects of changing the calculation of the 

COLA, beginning with the COLA computed for benefit eligibility in December 2012. The 

changes would affect all individuals eligible for any OASDI benefit for December 2012 or later, 

regardless of their age or how long they may have received benefits prior to that date. The basis 

for determining the COLA computation would be changed from using the Consumer Price Index 

for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) to using:

1) The chain-weighted version of the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CCPI-U), or

2) The current experimental Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E).

All estimates provided in this letter are based on the intermediate assumptions of 2011 Trustees 

Report. 

Summary of Effects

Changing to a Chain-Weighted Price Index

Changing the base CPI used for the COLA to the C-CPI-U, starting with the December 2012 

COLA, would reduce the expected average annual COLA in the future by 0.3 percentage point. 

This change would reduce the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit by 0.52 percent of taxable 

payroll (from an actuarial deficit of 2.22 percent of payroll under current law to a deficit of 1.70 

percent of payroll under this proposal). The annual deficit for 2085 would be reduced by 0.71 

percent of payroll (from a 2085 annual deficit of 4.24 percent of payroll under current law to a 
Page 2 -- The Honorable Xavier Becerra

deficit of 3.53 percent of payroll under this proposal). Table 1 provides annual estimates of the 

effects of this proposal on the financial status of the OASDI program.

Tables 1B1 and 1B2 illustrate the effects of this proposed change on benefit levels for several 

examples of hypothetical workers. These tables provide illustrations assuming that the expected 

average COLA reduction of 0.3 percentage point would occur at that level each year. Under this 

assumption, retirees at age 65 in 2015 or later would have had three COLAs (one each for 

December of the years in which they attained ages 62, 63, and 64) for a total expected reduction 

in their scheduled benefit of 0.9 percent. Additional annual COLAs thereafter would accumulate 

to larger total reductions in expected scheduled benefit levels of about 3.7 percent, 6.5 percent, 

and 9.2 percent for retirees at ages 75, 85, and 95, respectively. 

Changing to a Price Index Weighted to the Consumption of the Elderly

Changing the base CPI used for the COLA to the CPI-E starting with the December 2012 COLA 

would increase the expected average annual COLA in the future by 0.2 percentage point. This 

change would increase the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit by 0.36 percent of taxable payroll 

(from an actuarial deficit of 2.22 percent of payroll under current law to a deficit of 2.58 percent 

of payroll under this proposal). The annual deficit for 2085 is increased by 0.50 percent of 

payroll (from a 2085 annual deficit of 4.24 percent of payroll under current law to a deficit of 

4.74 percent of payroll under this proposal). Table 2 provides annual estimates of the effects of 

this proposal on the financial status of the OASDI program.

Tables 2B1 and 2B2 illustrate the effects of this proposed change on benefit levels for several 

examples of hypothetical workers. These tables provide illustrations assuming that the expected 

average COLA increase of 0.2 percentage point would occur at that level each year. Under this 

assumption, retirees at age 65 in 2015 and later would have had three COLAs (one each for 

December of the years in which they attained ages 62, 63, and 64) for a total expected increase in 

their scheduled benefit of 0.6 percent. Additional annual COLAs thereafter would accumulate to 

larger total increases in expected scheduled benefit levels of about 2.6 percent, 4.6 percent, and 

6.6 percent for retirees at ages 75, 85, and 95, respectively. 

 

The balance of this letter provides a brief analysis of the assumptions used for the estimates.

Consumer Price Indexes: Options for Use in OASDI COLA

1. Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers – (CPI-W)

At the time of the initial enactment of automatic COLAs for OASDI in the 1970’s there was only 

one CPI index produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This index reflects price 

increases for urban wage earners and clerical workers, about 32 percent of the population. The 

index was named the CPI-W as other indexes were developed over the years. The CPI-W 

continues to be used in determining the OASDI COLA. 
Page 3 -- The Honorable Xavier Becerra

2. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, Chain Weighted – (C-CPI-U)

The CPI-U is designed to reflect the consumption pattern of all urban consumers, about 87 

percent of the population. Generally, the rate of increase in the CPI-U has been very close to the 

increase in the CPI-W and for the future we do not expect any significant difference in the 

average annual increase based on difference in consumption of these two groups.

Since 2000, the BLS has been producing a second version of the CPI-U based on a chainweighted formula that reflects changes in the distribution of consumer purchases among 211 

broad categories (strata) of goods and services on a month by month basis. This chain-weighted 

version, referred to as the C-CPI-U, has increased by about 0.3 percentage point less than the 

CPI-U per year on average over the period it has been computed, and we expect this difference 

will continue into the future. 

The standard CPI-U and CPI-E use a fixed distribution (fixed weights) for the 211 broad strata of 

goods and services. The distribution is updated to reflect changes in consumption patterns every 

2 years. The C-CPI-U is developed to reflect changes in the distribution of purchases among the 

strata every month. The average rate of increase is less for this chain-weighted index because, 

on average, urban consumers have tended to increase their purchases of items that have low 

recent price increases, and reduced their purchases of items that have high recent price increases. 

This shift in purchases across the 211 broad strata of goods and services reflects the discretion 

the average urban consumer has to change their distribution of purchases “on the margin.” 

It should be noted that the broad strata represent very different groups of goods and services that

are not in general explicit “substitutes” for one another. Therefore, the degree to which 

individuals, in different circumstances and with different income levels, are able to change their 

purchases on a discretionary basis across strata likely varies. 

Basing the COLA on the C-CPI-U would have a further complication because the initial 

published value for this index is preliminary. In fact, the final value for the C-CPI-U is not 

available until 2 years later. We assume that COLAs for this estimate would be based on the 

initial preliminary value for the C-CPI-U published by the BLS with no subsequent adjustment to 

reflect the actual final value for the index.

3. Consumer Price Index for Elderly Consumers – (CPI-E)

The CPI-E is designed to reflect the different consumption patterns of consumers age 62 and 

older. The BLS has for many years produced the CPI-E by applying different weights to the 

increases in the 211 broad strata of goods and services that are used in all of the indexes. One 

limitation of the CPI-E is that the distribution of purchases within each broad strata grouping of 

goods and services is the same as for the CPI-U and CPI-W, but the distribution within groups 

for elderly consumers undoubtedly differs. Based on the data available for the CPI-E, we 

estimate that over the long-term future the CPI-E will tend to increase at an average annual rate 

that is about 0.2 percentage point higher than for the broader indexes. 
Page 4 -- The Honorable Xavier Becerra

The primary reason that the CPI-E rises faster than the CPI-W and CPI-U is the greater weight 

on health expenditures, which have risen and are expected to continue rising faster than most 

other strata. Housing is also a stratum that is weighted higher in the CPI-E, and has generally 

had relatively high price increases. In very recent years, housing prices have declined 

significantly, resulting in a break in the longer-term trend for the relatively fast rise in the CPI-E. 

However, we do not believe housing prices will continue to fall, or even to rise at less than the 

overall average increase for all goods and services, indefinitely. Therefore we assume that the 

CPI-E will, over the long run, continue to rise at a relatively fast rate due to the high weight on 

health services for the elderly.

We hope these estimates and this analysis will be helpful. Please let me know if we may provide 

further assistance.

Sincerely,

Stephen C. Goss

Chief Actuary

Enclosures 
Year 

Attain Reduced

Age 65 (Wage-Indexed (CPI-Indexed COLA4 Total Scheduled

2011 Dollars) 2011 Dollars)

 

2011 662 662 0.0 0.0 100.0

2030 585 773 -0.9 -0.9 99.1

2050 586 978 -0.9 -0.9 99.1

2080 586 1,365 -0.9 -0.9 99.1

 

2011 662 662 0.0 0.0 100.0

2030 585 773 -0.9 -0.9 99.1

2050 586 978 -0.9 -0.9 99.1

2080 586 1,365 -0.9 -0.9 99.1

 

2011 662 662 0.0 0.0 100.0

2030 585 773 -0.9 -0.9 99.1

2050 586 978 -0.9 -0.9 99.1

2080 586 1,365 -0.9 -0.9 99.1

2011 866 866 0.0 0.0 100.0

2030 765 1,012 -0.9 -0.9 99.1

2050 766 1,280 -0.9 -0.9 99.1

2080 766 1,786 -0.9 -0.9 99.1

2011 866 866 0.0 0.0 100.0

2030 765 1,012 -0.9 -0.9 99.1

2050 766 1,280 -0.9 -0.9 99.1

2080 766 1,786 -0.9 -0.9 99.1

2011 866 866 0.0 0.0 100.0

2030 765 1,012 -0.9 -0.9 99.1

2050 766 1,280 -0.9 -0.9 99.1

2080 766 1,786 -0.9 -0.9 99.1

2011 1,428 1,428 0.0 0.0 100.0

2030 1,261 1,667 -0.9 -0.9 99.1

2050 1,263 2,109 -0.9 -0.9 99.1

2080 1,262 2,943 -0.9 -0.9 99.1

2011 1,428 1,428 0.0 0.0 100.0

2030 1,261 1,667 -0.9 -0.9 99.1

2050 1,263 2,109 -0.9 -0.9 99.1

2080 1,262 2,943 -0.9 -0.9 99.1

2011 1,892 1,892 0.0 0.0 100.0

2030 1,672 2,210 -0.9 -0.9 99.1

2050 1,673 2,795 -0.9 -0.9 99.1

2080 1,673 3,900 -0.9 -0.9 99.1

2011 2,250 2,250 0.0 0.0 100.0

2030 2,045 2,703 -0.9 -0.9 99.1

2050 2,043 3,412 -0.9 -0.9 99.1

2080 2,039 4,754 -0.9 -0.9 99.1

1 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2011.

2 Projected percent of new retired worker awards in 2050 closest to AIME levels and years of work.

3 After trust fund exhaustion under present law continuing taxes are expected to be enough to pay about three fourths of scheduled benefits.

4

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration

Low-AIME ($19,583 for 20111) 30-Year Scaled Earner (6.9% of Retirees2)

Low-AIME ($19,583 for 20111

) 20-Year Scaled Earner (2.7% of Retirees2)

Medium-AIME ($43,518 for 20111

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (27.0% of Retirees2

)

Medium-AIME ($43,518 for 20111) 30-Year Scaled Earner (4.3% of Retirees2)

High-AIME ($69,629 for 20111

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (20.5% of Retirees2)

Starting Dec 2012, compute the COLA using a chained CPI-W, producing 0.3% lower annual COLAs on average.

Very-Low-AIME ($10,879 for 20111) 14-Year Scaled Earner (5.2% of Retirees2)

Table 1B1. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Beginning Benefit Receipt at age 65 

COLA based on a Chain-Weighted Price Index (C-CPI-U) beginning December 2012

Scheduled Benefit Level Percent Change at age 65

Present Law Scheduled Proposal Scheduled Benefit

Low-AIME ($19,583 for 20111) 44-Year Scaled Earner (13.4% of Retirees2

)

Monthly Benefits3 Percent of Present Law:

June 20, 2011

(Percent change) (Percents)

Maximum-AIME ($106,800 for 20111) Steady Earner (5.6% of Retirees2)

Very-Low-AIME ($10,879 for 20111

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (8.1% of Retirees2)

Very-Low-AIME ($10,879 for 20111) 20-Year Scaled Earner (6.2% of Retirees2)
Year 

Attain

Age 65 Age 65 Age 75 Age 85 Age 95

2011 100.0 97.1 94.3 91.6

2030 99.1 96.3 93.5 90.8

2050 99.1 96.3 93.5 90.8

2080 99.1 96.3 93.5 90.8

2011 100.0 97.1 94.3 91.6

2030 99.1 96.3 93.5 90.8

2050 99.1 96.3 93.5 90.8

2080 99.1 96.3 93.5 90.8

2011 100.0 97.1 94.3 91.6

2030 99.1 96.3 93.5 90.8

2050 99.1 96.3 93.5 90.8

2080 99.1 96.3 93.5 90.8

2011 100.0 97.1 94.3 91.6

2030 99.1 96.3 93.5 90.8

2050 99.1 96.3 93.5 90.8

2080 99.1 96.3 93.5 90.8

2011 100.0 97.1 94.3 91.6

2030 99.1 96.3 93.5 90.8

2050 99.1 96.3 93.5 90.8

2080 99.1 96.3 93.5 90.8

2011 100.0 97.1 94.3 91.6

2030 99.1 96.3 93.5 90.8

2050 99.1 96.3 93.5 90.8

2080 99.1 96.3 93.5 90.8

2011 100.0 97.1 94.3 91.6

2030 99.1 96.3 93.5 90.8

2050 99.1 96.3 93.5 90.8

2080 99.1 96.3 93.5 90.8

2011 100.0 97.1 94.3 91.6

2030 99.1 96.3 93.5 90.8

2050 99.1 96.3 93.5 90.8

2080 99.1 96.3 93.5 90.8

2011 100.0 97.1 94.3 91.6

2030 99.1 96.3 93.5 90.8

2050 99.1 96.3 93.5 90.8

2080 99.1 96.3 93.5 90.8

2011 100.0 97.1 94.3 91.6

2030 99.1 96.3 93.5 90.8

2050 99.1 96.3 93.5 90.8

2080 99.1 96.3 93.5 90.8

1 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2011.

2 Projected percent of new retired worker awards in 2050 closest to AIME levels and years of work.

Note: Starting Dec 2012, compute the COLA using a chained CPI-W, producing 0.3% lower annual COLAs on average.

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Adminstration June 20, 2011

Proposal Benefit as Percent of Present Law Scheduled

(Percents)

Low-AIME ($19,583 for 20111) 20-Year Scaled Earner (2.7% of Retirees2)

Very-Low-AIME ($10,879 for 20111

) 14-Year Scaled Earner (5.2% of Retirees2

)

Very-Low-AIME ($10,879 for 20111

) 20-Year Scaled Earner (6.2% of Retirees2)

Table 1B2. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Beginning Benefit Receipt at age 65 

COLA based on a Chain-Weighted Price Index (C-CPI-U) beginning December 2012

Very-Low-AIME ($10,879 for 20111

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (8.1% of Retirees2

)

Low-AIME ($19,583 for 20111

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (6.9% of Retirees2)

Medium-AIME ($43,518 for 20111

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (4.3% of Retirees2)

High-AIME ($69,629 for 20111) 44-Year Scaled Earner (20.5% of Retirees2)

Maximum-AIME ($106,800 for 20111

) Steady Earner (5.6% of Retirees2

)

Low-AIME ($19,583 for 20111) 44-Year Scaled Earner (13.4% of Retirees2)

Medium-AIME ($43,518 for 20111

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (27.0% of Retirees2)
Year 

Attain Reduced

Age 65 (Wage-Indexed (CPI-Indexed COLA4 Total Scheduled

2011 Dollars) 2011 Dollars)

 

2011 662 662 0.0 0.0 100.0

2030 585 773 0.6 0.6 100.6

2050 586 978 0.6 0.6 100.6

2080 586 1,365 0.6 0.6 100.6

 

2011 662 662 0.0 0.0 100.0

2030 585 773 0.6 0.6 100.6

2050 586 978 0.6 0.6 100.6

2080 586 1,365 0.6 0.6 100.6

 

2011 662 662 0.0 0.0 100

2030 585 773 0.6 0.6 100.6

2050 586 978 0.6 0.6 100.6

2080 586 1,365 0.6 0.6 100.6

2011 866 866 0.0 0.0 100.0

2030 765 1,012 0.6 0.6 100.6

2050 766 1,280 0.6 0.6 100.6

2080 766 1,786 0.6 0.6 100.6

2011 866 866 0.0 0.0 100.0

2030 765 1,012 0.6 0.6 100.6

2050 766 1,280 0.6 0.6 100.6

2080 766 1,786 0.6 0.6 100.6

2011 866 866 0.0 0.0 100.0

2030 765 1,012 0.6 0.6 100.6

2050 766 1,280 0.6 0.6 100.6

2080 766 1,786 0.6 0.6 100.6

2011 1,428 1,428 0.0 0.0 100.0

2030 1,261 1,667 0.6 0.6 100.6

2050 1,263 2,109 0.6 0.6 100.6

2080 1,262 2,943 0.6 0.6 100.6

2011 1,428 1,428 0.0 0.0 100.0

2030 1,261 1,667 0.6 0.6 100.6

2050 1,263 2,109 0.6 0.6 100.6

2080 1,262 2,943 0.6 0.6 100.6

2011 1,892 1,892 0.0 0.0 100.0

2030 1,672 2,210 0.6 0.6 100.6

2050 1,673 2,795 0.6 0.6 100.6

2080 1,673 3,900 0.6 0.6 100.6

2011 2,250 2,250 0.0 0.0 100.0

2030 2,045 2,703 0.6 0.6 100.6

2050 2,043 3,412 0.6 0.6 100.6

2080 2,039 4,754 0.6 0.6 100.6

1 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2011.

2 Projected percent of new retired worker awards in 2050 closest to AIME levels and years of work.

3 After trust fund exhaustion under present law continuing taxes are expected to be enough to pay about three fourths of scheduled benefits.

4

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration

Low-AIME ($19,583 for 20111) 30-Year Scaled Earner (6.9% of Retirees2)

Low-AIME ($19,583 for 20111

) 20-Year Scaled Earner (2.7% of Retirees2)

Medium-AIME ($43,518 for 20111

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (27.0% of Retirees2

)

Medium-AIME ($43,518 for 20111) 30-Year Scaled Earner (4.3% of Retirees2)

High-AIME ($69,629 for 20111

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (20.5% of Retirees2)

Starting Dec 2012, compute the COLA using a chained CPI-E, producing 0.2% higher annual COLAs on average.

Very-Low-AIME ($10,879 for 20111) 14-Year Scaled Earner (5.2% of Retirees2)

Table 2B1. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Beginning Benefit Receipt at age 65 

COLA based on a Price Index Weighted to the Consumption of the Elderly (CPI-E) beginning December 2012

Scheduled Benefit Level Percent Change at age 65

Present Law Scheduled Proposal Scheduled Benefit

Low-AIME ($19,583 for 20111) 44-Year Scaled Earner (13.4% of Retirees2

)

Monthly Benefits3 Percent of Present Law:

June 20, 2011

(Percent change) (Percents)

Maximum-AIME ($106,800 for 20111) Steady Earner (5.6% of Retirees2)

Very-Low-AIME ($10,879 for 20111

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (8.1% of Retirees2)

Very-Low-AIME ($10,879 for 20111) 20-Year Scaled Earner (6.2% of Retirees2)
Year 

Attain

Age 65 Age 65 Age 75 Age 85 Age 95

2011 100.0 102.0 104.0 106.0

2030 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2050 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2080 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2011 100.0 102.0 104.0 106.0

2030 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2050 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2080 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2011 100.0 102.0 104.0 106.0

2030 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2050 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2080 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2011 100.0 102.0 104.0 106.0

2030 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2050 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2080 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2011 100.0 102.0 104.0 106.0

2030 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2050 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2080 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2011 100.0 102.0 104.0 106.0

2030 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2050 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2080 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2011 100.0 102.0 104.0 106.0

2030 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2050 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2080 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2011 100.0 102.0 104.0 106.0

2030 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2050 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2080 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2011 100.0 102.0 104.0 106.0

2030 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2050 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2080 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2011 100.0 102.0 104.0 106.0

2030 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2050 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2080 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

1 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2011.

2 Projected percent of new retired worker awards in 2050 closest to AIME levels and years of work.

Note: Starting Dec 2012, compute the COLA using a chained CPI-E, producing 0.2% higher annual COLAs on average.

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report.

Maximum-AIME ($106,800 for 20111

) Steady Earner (5.6% of Retirees2

)

Low-AIME ($19,583 for 20111) 44-Year Scaled Earner (13.4% of Retirees2)

Medium-AIME ($43,518 for 20111

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (27.0% of Retirees2)

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Adminstration June 20, 2011

Low-AIME ($19,583 for 20111) 20-Year Scaled Earner (2.7% of Retirees2)

Table 2B2. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Beginning Benefit Receipt at age 65 

COLA based on a Price Index Weighted to the Consumption of the Elderly (CPI-E) beginning December 2012

Very-Low-AIME ($10,879 for 20111

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (8.1% of Retirees2

)

Low-AIME ($19,583 for 20111

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (6.9% of Retirees2)

Medium-AIME ($43,518 for 20111

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (4.3% of Retirees2)

High-AIME ($69,629 for 20111) 44-Year Scaled Earner (20.5% of Retirees2)

Proposal Scheduled Benefit as Percent of Present Law Scheduled

(Percents)

Very-Low-AIME ($10,879 for 20111) 14-Year Scaled Earner (5.2% of Retirees2

)

Very-Low-AIME ($10,879 for 20111

) 20-Year Scaled Earner (6.2% of Retirees2)
COLA based on a Chain-Weighted Price Index (C-CPI-U) beginning December 2012

Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2011 13.35 12.52 -0.82 353 0.00 0.00 0.00

2012 13.23 12.87 -0.36 347 0.00 0.00 0.00

2013 13.14 12.86 -0.28 342 -0.04 0.00 0.04

2014 13.11 12.91 -0.20 336 -0.07 0.00 0.07

2015 13.13 12.94 -0.20 331 -0.11 0.00 0.10

2016 13.18 12.96 -0.22 326 -0.14 -0.01 0.14

2017 13.29 12.99 -0.29 320 -0.18 -0.01 0.17

2018 13.41 13.02 -0.39 314 -0.21 -0.01 0.20

2019 13.64 13.03 -0.61 306 -0.24 -0.01 0.23

2020 13.92 13.05 -0.88 296 -0.27 -0.01 0.26

2021 14.22 13.07 -1.15 286 -0.30 -0.02 0.29

2022 14.49 13.08 -1.41 275 -0.34 -0.02 0.32

2023 14.76 13.10 -1.66 263 -0.37 -0.02 0.35

2024 15.01 13.11 -1.90 250 -0.39 -0.02 0.37

2025 15.25 13.13 -2.12 237 -0.42 -0.02 0.40

2026 15.47 13.14 -2.33 223 -0.45 -0.02 0.43

2027 15.67 13.15 -2.52 209 -0.48 -0.02 0.45

2028 15.85 13.16 -2.68 194 -0.50 -0.03 0.47

2029 15.99 13.17 -2.82 178 -0.52 -0.03 0.50

2030 16.11 13.18 -2.93 162 -0.55 -0.03 0.52

2031 16.20 13.19 -3.01 145 -0.56 -0.03 0.54

2032 16.27 13.20 -3.07 128 -0.58 -0.03 0.55

2033 16.33 13.20 -3.13 111 -0.60 -0.03 0.57

2034 16.37 13.21 -3.16 93 -0.61 -0.03 0.58

2035 16.39 13.21 -3.18 75 -0.63 -0.03 0.59

2036 16.39 13.21 -3.18 57 -0.64 -0.03 0.61

2037 16.39 13.21 -3.18 39 -0.65 -0.03 0.62

2038 16.36 13.21 -3.15 20 -0.66 -0.04 0.62

2039 16.32 13.21 -3.11 2 -0.67 -0.04 0.63

2040 16.28 13.21 -3.07 ---- -0.67 -0.04 0.64

2041 16.23 13.21 -3.02 ---- -0.68 -0.04 0.64

2042 16.19 13.21 -2.98 ---- -0.68 -0.04 0.64

2043 16.15 13.21 -2.95 ---- -0.68 -0.04 0.65

2044 16.13 13.21 -2.92 ---- -0.69 -0.04 0.65

2045 16.10 13.21 -2.89 ---- -0.69 -0.04 0.65

2046 16.07 13.21 -2.86 ---- -0.69 -0.04 0.65

2047 16.05 13.21 -2.84 ---- -0.69 -0.04 0.65

2048 16.03 13.21 -2.82 ---- -0.69 -0.04 0.65

2049 16.01 13.21 -2.81 ---- -0.69 -0.04 0.65

2050 16.00 13.21 -2.79 ---- -0.69 -0.04 0.65

2051 15.99 13.21 -2.78 ---- -0.69 -0.04 0.65

2052 15.99 13.21 -2.79 ---- -0.69 -0.04 0.65

2053 16.00 13.21 -2.79 ---- -0.69 -0.04 0.65

2054 16.01 13.21 -2.80 ---- -0.69 -0.04 0.65

2055 16.03 13.21 -2.82 ---- -0.69 -0.04 0.65

2056 16.05 13.21 -2.84 ---- -0.69 -0.04 0.65

2057 16.07 13.22 -2.86 ---- -0.69 -0.04 0.65

2058 16.09 13.22 -2.87 ---- -0.69 -0.04 0.65

2059 16.10 13.22 -2.88 ---- -0.69 -0.04 0.66

2060 16.11 13.22 -2.89 ---- -0.69 -0.04 0.66

2061 16.12 13.22 -2.90 ---- -0.70 -0.04 0.66

2062 16.13 13.22 -2.90 ---- -0.70 -0.04 0.66

2063 16.14 13.22 -2.91 ---- -0.70 -0.04 0.66

2064 16.15 13.22 -2.92 ---- -0.70 -0.04 0.66

2065 16.16 13.23 -2.94 ---- -0.71 -0.04 0.67

2066 16.18 13.23 -2.95 ---- -0.71 -0.04 0.67

2067 16.20 13.23 -2.97 ---- -0.71 -0.04 0.67

2068 16.23 13.23 -3.00 ---- -0.71 -0.04 0.67

2069 16.25 13.23 -3.02 ---- -0.72 -0.04 0.68

2070 16.28 13.24 -3.05 ---- -0.72 -0.04 0.68

2071 16.31 13.24 -3.08 ---- -0.72 -0.04 0.68

2072 16.34 13.24 -3.10 ---- -0.72 -0.04 0.68

2073 16.38 13.24 -3.14 ---- -0.73 -0.04 0.69

2074 16.41 13.24 -3.17 ---- -0.73 -0.04 0.69

2075 16.45 13.25 -3.20 ---- -0.73 -0.04 0.69

2076 16.48 13.25 -3.23 ---- -0.73 -0.04 0.69

2077 16.51 13.25 -3.26 ---- -0.74 -0.04 0.70

2078 16.55 13.25 -3.30 ---- -0.74 -0.04 0.70

2079 16.58 13.26 -3.33 ---- -0.74 -0.04 0.70

2080 16.62 13.26 -3.36 ---- -0.74 -0.04 0.70

2081 16.65 13.26 -3.39 ---- -0.75 -0.04 0.70

2082 16.69 13.26 -3.43 ---- -0.75 -0.04 0.71

2083 16.73 13.26 -3.46 ---- -0.75 -0.04 0.71

2084 16.77 13.27 -3.50 ---- -0.75 -0.04 0.71

2085 16.80 13.27 -3.53 ---- -0.75 -0.04 0.71

2086 16.83 13.27 -3.56 ---- -0.76 -0.04 0.72

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

15.70% 14.00% -1.70% 2039 -0.55% -0.03% 0.52%

1 Under present law the year of exhaustion is 2036

June 20, 2011

Summarized Rates: OASDI

Year of 

Exhaustion1

Summarized Rates: OASDI

2011 - 2085

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

Proposal Change in Present Law

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll
COLA based on a Price Index Weighted to the Consumption of the Elderly (CPI-E) beginning December 2012

Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2011 13.35 12.52 -0.82 353 0.00 0.00 0.00

2012 13.23 12.87 -0.36 347 0.00 0.00 0.00

2013 13.20 12.87 -0.34 340 0.02 0.00 -0.02

2014 13.23 12.92 -0.31 333 0.05 0.00 -0.05

2015 13.32 12.94 -0.37 325 0.07 0.00 -0.07

2016 13.42 12.98 -0.45 318 0.10 0.00 -0.09

2017 13.58 13.01 -0.57 309 0.12 0.01 -0.11

2018 13.76 13.03 -0.72 300 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2019 14.04 13.05 -0.99 289 0.16 0.01 -0.15

2020 14.38 13.07 -1.31 276 0.18 0.01 -0.18

2021 14.73 13.09 -1.63 263 0.21 0.01 -0.20

2022 15.06 13.11 -1.95 248 0.23 0.01 -0.22

2023 15.37 13.13 -2.25 233 0.25 0.01 -0.24

2024 15.67 13.15 -2.53 217 0.27 0.01 -0.26

2025 15.96 13.16 -2.80 200 0.29 0.01 -0.27

2026 16.23 13.18 -3.05 182 0.31 0.02 -0.29

2027 16.47 13.19 -3.28 164 0.33 0.02 -0.31

2028 16.69 13.21 -3.48 144 0.34 0.02 -0.33

2029 16.88 13.22 -3.66 124 0.36 0.02 -0.34

2030 17.03 13.23 -3.80 104 0.38 0.02 -0.36

2031 17.15 13.24 -3.91 83 0.39 0.02 -0.37

2032 17.26 13.25 -4.01 61 0.40 0.02 -0.38

2033 17.34 13.26 -4.09 39 0.41 0.02 -0.39

2034 17.41 13.26 -4.14 16 0.42 0.02 -0.40

2035 17.45 13.27 -4.18 ---- 0.43 0.02 -0.41

2036 17.48 13.27 -4.21 ---- 0.44 0.02 -0.42

2037 17.49 13.27 -4.22 ---- 0.45 0.02 -0.43

2038 17.48 13.27 -4.20 ---- 0.46 0.02 -0.43

2039 17.45 13.27 -4.18 ---- 0.46 0.02 -0.44

2040 17.42 13.27 -4.15 ---- 0.47 0.03 -0.44

2041 17.38 13.27 -4.11 ---- 0.47 0.03 -0.45

2042 17.35 13.27 -4.07 ---- 0.47 0.03 -0.45

2043 17.32 13.27 -4.04 ---- 0.48 0.03 -0.45

2044 17.29 13.27 -4.02 ---- 0.48 0.03 -0.45

2045 17.27 13.27 -4.00 ---- 0.48 0.03 -0.45

2046 17.24 13.27 -3.97 ---- 0.48 0.03 -0.45

2047 17.22 13.27 -3.95 ---- 0.48 0.03 -0.45

2048 17.20 13.27 -3.93 ---- 0.48 0.03 -0.45

2049 17.18 13.27 -3.91 ---- 0.48 0.03 -0.45

2050 17.17 13.27 -3.90 ---- 0.48 0.03 -0.45

2051 17.16 13.27 -3.89 ---- 0.48 0.03 -0.45

2052 17.16 13.27 -3.89 ---- 0.48 0.03 -0.45

2053 17.17 13.27 -3.90 ---- 0.48 0.03 -0.45

2054 17.18 13.27 -3.91 ---- 0.48 0.03 -0.45

2055 17.20 13.28 -3.92 ---- 0.48 0.03 -0.45

2056 17.22 13.28 -3.94 ---- 0.48 0.03 -0.46

2057 17.24 13.28 -3.96 ---- 0.48 0.03 -0.46

2058 17.26 13.28 -3.98 ---- 0.48 0.03 -0.46

2059 17.28 13.28 -3.99 ---- 0.48 0.03 -0.46

2060 17.29 13.29 -4.00 ---- 0.49 0.03 -0.46

2061 17.30 13.29 -4.01 ---- 0.49 0.03 -0.46

2062 17.31 13.29 -4.02 ---- 0.49 0.03 -0.46

2063 17.33 13.29 -4.04 ---- 0.49 0.03 -0.46

2064 17.34 13.29 -4.05 ---- 0.49 0.03 -0.46

2065 17.36 13.29 -4.07 ---- 0.49 0.03 -0.47

2066 17.38 13.29 -4.09 ---- 0.49 0.03 -0.47

2067 17.41 13.30 -4.11 ---- 0.50 0.03 -0.47

2068 17.44 13.30 -4.14 ---- 0.50 0.03 -0.47

2069 17.47 13.30 -4.17 ---- 0.50 0.03 -0.47

2070 17.50 13.30 -4.20 ---- 0.50 0.03 -0.47

2071 17.54 13.30 -4.23 ---- 0.50 0.03 -0.48

2072 17.57 13.31 -4.27 ---- 0.51 0.03 -0.48

2073 17.61 13.31 -4.30 ---- 0.51 0.03 -0.48

2074 17.65 13.31 -4.34 ---- 0.51 0.03 -0.48

2075 17.69 13.31 -4.38 ---- 0.51 0.03 -0.48

2076 17.73 13.32 -4.41 ---- 0.51 0.03 -0.49

2077 17.76 13.32 -4.45 ---- 0.52 0.03 -0.49

2078 17.80 13.32 -4.48 ---- 0.52 0.03 -0.49

2079 17.84 13.32 -4.52 ---- 0.52 0.03 -0.49

2080 17.88 13.33 -4.55 ---- 0.52 0.03 -0.49

2081 17.92 13.33 -4.59 ---- 0.52 0.03 -0.49

2082 17.96 13.33 -4.63 ---- 0.52 0.03 -0.49

2083 18.00 13.34 -4.67 ---- 0.53 0.03 -0.50

2084 18.04 13.34 -4.71 ---- 0.53 0.03 -0.50

2085 18.08 13.34 -4.74 ---- 0.53 0.03 -0.50

2086 18.12 13.34 -4.78 ---- 0.53 0.03 -0.50

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

16.63% 14.04% -2.58% 2034 0.38% 0.02% -0.36%

1 Under present law the year of exhaustion is 2036

Table 2 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

Proposal Change in Present Law

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll

June 20, 2011

Summarized Rates: OASDI

Year of 

Exhaustion1

Summarized Rates: OASDI

2011 - 2085

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration