SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE, MD 21235-0001

SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

September 7, 2011

The Honorable Bernard Sanders

United States Senate

Washington, D.C. 20510

Dear Senator Sanders:

I am writing in response to your request for estimates of the financial effects on Social Security 

of a proposal to apply the Social Security payroll tax to earned income over $250,000 beginning 

2012. The estimates and analysis provided in this letter reflect clarification of the intent of the 

proposed bill to be named Keeping Our Social Security Promises Act based on discussion with 

Warren Gunnels of your staff. A detailed description of our understanding of the intent of the 

proposal is included below. All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2011

Trustees Report. The estimates presented reflect the combined efforts of many in our office, but 

particularly Alice Wade, Christopher Chaplain, and William Piet. 

The intent of this proposal is identical to the intent of H.R. 797 introduced in the House of 

Representatives on February 18 of this year by Mr. DeFazio. The estimates we produced for Mr. 

DeFazio on March 3, 2011, available at http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/solvency/index.html, differ 

somewhat from those provided now because they were produced under different baseline 

assumptions, the intermediate assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report. 

The proposal would modify the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to subject a worker’s OASDI 

covered earnings in excess of $250,000 in any calendar year after 2011 to the combined OASDI 

payroll tax rate of 12.4 percent. This is the same tax rate that is applied, under current law, to 

OASDI covered earnings up to the contribution and benefit base ($106,800 for 2011). Under 

present law, the contribution and benefit base is scheduled to increase in the future based on 

increases in the average wage in the U.S. economy. However, the threshold of $250,000 would 

be constant after 2012 until the contribution and benefit base exceeds this level, at which point 

the threshold would be set equal to the contribution and benefit base for that and all subsequent 

years. Earnings subject to tax above the threshold would not be included in earnings credited for 

the purpose of OASDI benefit computation. 

All wages and self-employment earnings in OASDI covered employment during a given year 

would be reflected in the determination of earnings above the threshold. For workers with more 

than one employer (including self employment) for a given year, total tax liability for the year 

would be computed as if all earnings had been received from a single employer for the year, but 

in no case would any employee or employer pay less tax than they would under current law. To 

the extent adjustments of payroll tax liability are needed for a given year, employees would make 

such adjustments on their income tax filing forms. SSA would contact employers regarding any 

additional tax liability due to multiple jobs for employees during the year. 
Page 2 – The Honorable Bernard Sanders

The balance of this letter provides summary and detailed estimates of the effects of enactment of 

the proposal.

Summary of Effects on Actuarial Status

Figure 1 below illustrates the expected change in the combined Old-Age and Survivors Insurance 

(OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund assets, expressed as a percentage of annual 

program cost, with enactment of this proposal. Assuming enactment, the OASDI program would 

be expected to be solvent for the next 75 years, under the intermediate assumptions of the 2011

Trustees Report. The level of assets for the theoretical combined OASI and DI Trust Funds 

would remain positive through 2085, permitting full payment of scheduled benefits on a timely 

basis. However, the combined assets would be declining as a percentage of the annual cost of 

the program at the end of the period. For this reason, the OASDI program would not meet the 

requirements of sustainable solvency. 

Note: Trust Fund Ratio for a given year is the ratio of assets in the combined OASI and DI Trust Fund assets at the 

beginning of the year to the cost of the program during the year.

Enactment of the proposal would improve the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by 2.09

percent of taxable payroll, reducing the actuarial deficit of 2.22 percent of taxable payroll under 

current law to an actuarial deficit of 0.13 percent of payroll. The assets in the combined OASI 

and DI Trust Funds would be positive throughout the 75-year period, meaning that solvency 

would be expected throughout the period. However, assets at the end of 2085, while still 
Page 3 – The Honorable Bernard Sanders

positive, would be declining as a percent of annual program cost and so the program would not 

meet the requirements for sustainable solvency.

Figure 2 below illustrates annual projected levels of cost and income as a percentage of presentlaw taxable payroll. The projected levels of cost are shown for present-law scheduled benefits 

(“cost”) and payable benefits (“expenditures,” when payable benefits are less than scheduled 

benefits) and for benefits under this proposal. Under this proposal, the combined OASI and DI 

Trust Funds do not exhaust, and thus payable benefits equal scheduled benefits throughout the 

75-year projection period.

Figure 2 shows that the estimated cost of the OASDI program would be very slightly reduced 

under this proposal. A slight decrease in benefits is projected to follow from a small decrease in 

the proportion of employee compensation that would be paid in the form of wages under the 

current-law contribution and benefit base. This small reduction in wages as a percentage of 

employee compensation reflects the assumed behavioral response of employees and employers 

to the additional payroll taxes under the proposal. 
Page 4 – The Honorable Bernard Sanders

It is also useful to consider the projected cost and income for the OASDI program expressed as a 

percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The graph below illustrates these levels under 

both present law and this proposal. 

Detailed Financial Results 

Benefit Illustrations

Benefit illustrations are not provided for the proposal because benefit levels would not be 

materially changed from the scheduled benefit levels under current law.

Trust Fund Operations

Table 1 shows the annual cost and income rates, annual balances, and trust fund ratios for 

OASDI assuming enactment of the proposal. This table also shows the change from present law 

in these cost rates, income rates, and balances. Included at the bottom of this table are 

summarized rates for the 75-year long-range period and the expected year of trust fund 

exhaustion under this proposal. 

Table 1 indicates that the OASDI program is projected to be solvent throughout the 75-year 

projection period assuming enactment of the proposal. After 2018, the trust fund ratio is 

projected to decline, reaching 10 percent of the next year’s annual program cost at the end of the 
Page 5 – The Honorable Bernard Sanders

75-year projection period. The actuarial deficit for the OASDI program over the 75-year 

projection period would be improved by an estimated 2.09 percent of taxable payroll, from an 

actuarial deficit of 2.22 percent of payroll projected under current law to an actuarial deficit of 

0.13 percent of payroll under the proposal. 

Program Transfers and Assets

Column 5 of table 1a provides a projection of the asset level for the combined OASI and DI 

Trust Funds under the proposal, expressed in present value dollars discounted to January 1, 2011. 

For purpose of comparison, the net OASDI Trust Fund assets, expressed in present value dollars, 

are also shown for a theoretical Social Security program where borrowing authority is assumed 

for the Trust Funds. Columns 1 through 3 are all zeros because no General Fund transfers are 

specified in this proposal. Gross Domestic Product, expressed in present value dollars, is shown 

in column 6 for comparison with other values in the table. 

Effect on the Federal Budget

Table 1b shows the projected effect, in present value discounted dollars, on the Federal unified 

budget and on-budget cash flows and balances assuming enactment of the proposal. Table 1b.n 

provides the estimated nominal dollar effect of enactment of the proposal on the annual budget 

balances for years 2011 through 2020. All values in these tables represent the amount of the 

change that would be expected due to enactment of the proposal, from the level that would be 

projected under current law. 

The effect of the plan on unified budget cash flow (column 3) is expected to be positive for 2012 

and throughout the remainder of the long-range period. Column 4 provides the projected effect 

of implementing the plan on the Federal debt held by the public. Column 5 provides the 

projected effect on the annual unified budget balances, including both the cash flow effect in 

column 3 and the change in interest on the accumulated debt indicated in column 4. Under this 

proposal, Federal debt held by the public would be reduced by about $1.1 trillion in nominal 

dollars by the end of 2020. 

Enactment of this proposal would have no direct effect on the on-budget cash flow or on the total 

Federal debt subject to limit. There would be essentially no change in the total Federal debt 

subject to limit because the OASDI combined Trust Fund assets, which are a part of the total 

Federal debt, would increase by the same amount as the amount of the reduction in publicly-held 

debt. 

It is important to note that these estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2011

Trustees Report and thus are not consistent with estimates made by the OMB or the CBO based 

on their assumptions. In addition, estimates in these two tables reflect budget scoring 

conventions, which presume OASDI benefits would continue to be paid in full after Trust Fund 

assets become exhausted with borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury, even though 

this would not be possible under current law. 
Page 6 – The Honorable Bernard Sanders

Annual Trust Fund Operations as a Percentage of GDP

Table 1c provides annual cost, annual expenditures (on a payable basis), and annual tax income 

for the OASDI program expressed as a percentage of GDP. These values are shown for both 

present law and assuming enactment of the proposal. Showing the annual trust fund flows as a 

percentage of GDP provides an additional perspective on these trust fund operations in relation 

to the total value of goods and services produced in the United States.

Effects on Trust Fund Assets and Unfunded Obligations

Table 1d provides estimates of the changes due to the proposal in the level of projected trust 

fund assets under present law and, for years after trust fund exhaustion, the level of unfunded 

obligations under present law. All values in the table are expressed in present-value discounted 

dollars. For the 75-year long-range period as a whole, the present-law unfunded obligation of 

$6.5 trillion in present value is replaced with a positive trust fund balance of $0.04 trillion in 

present value through the end of the period. This change is the combination of the following: 

• A $6.5 trillion increase in revenue from applying the payroll tax to covered earnings 

above the present-law contribution and benefit base (column 2), less

• A $0.1 trillion reduction in cost from the behavioral response to additional payroll tax, 

causing a small decrease in the share of employee compensation that is received in 

wages, and thus a small decrease in total benefits (column 3).

We hope these estimates will be helpful. Please let me know if we may provide further 

assistance.

Sincerely,

Stephen C. Goss

Chief Actuary

Enclosures 
Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2011 13.35 12.52 -0.82 353 0.00 0.00 0.00

2012 13.23 13.94 0.71 347 0.00 1.07 1.07

2013 13.18 14.07 0.89 349 0.00 1.20 1.20

2014 13.18 14.18 1.00 351 0.00 1.27 1.27

2015 13.24 14.26 1.02 353 0.00 1.32 1.32

2016 13.32 14.34 1.02 356 0.00 1.37 1.37

2017 13.46 14.42 0.96 358 0.00 1.42 1.42

2018 13.61 14.49 0.88 360 0.00 1.47 1.47

2019 13.88 14.55 0.67 359 0.00 1.51 1.51

2020 14.19 14.57 0.38 357 0.00 1.51 1.52

2021 14.51 14.64 0.13 354 0.00 1.56 1.57

2022 14.82 14.71 -0.11 350 -0.01 1.61 1.62

2023 15.12 14.78 -0.34 345 -0.01 1.66 1.67

2024 15.40 14.85 -0.55 341 -0.01 1.72 1.72

2025 15.66 14.92 -0.74 335 -0.01 1.77 1.78

2026 15.91 14.99 -0.92 330 -0.01 1.83 1.84

2027 16.13 15.07 -1.06 324 -0.01 1.89 1.91

2028 16.33 15.15 -1.18 318 -0.01 1.96 1.97

2029 16.50 15.23 -1.27 312 -0.02 2.03 2.05

2030 16.64 15.32 -1.32 306 -0.02 2.10 2.12

2031 16.74 15.40 -1.34 300 -0.02 2.18 2.20

2032 16.83 15.49 -1.34 294 -0.02 2.26 2.28

2033 16.91 15.55 -1.35 289 -0.02 2.32 2.34

2034 16.96 15.56 -1.40 283 -0.02 2.32 2.35

2035 16.99 15.57 -1.42 278 -0.03 2.32 2.35

2036 17.01 15.57 -1.44 273 -0.03 2.32 2.35

2037 17.01 15.57 -1.44 268 -0.03 2.32 2.35

2038 16.99 15.57 -1.42 263 -0.03 2.32 2.36

2039 16.96 15.57 -1.38 258 -0.03 2.33 2.36

2040 16.92 15.57 -1.35 254 -0.03 2.33 2.36

2041 16.88 15.57 -1.30 250 -0.04 2.33 2.36

2042 16.83 15.57 -1.26 246 -0.04 2.33 2.37

2043 16.80 15.57 -1.22 242 -0.04 2.33 2.37

2044 16.77 15.58 -1.20 238 -0.04 2.33 2.37

2045 16.74 15.58 -1.17 235 -0.04 2.33 2.38

2046 16.71 15.58 -1.14 231 -0.05 2.33 2.38

2047 16.69 15.58 -1.11 228 -0.05 2.33 2.38

2048 16.67 15.58 -1.09 225 -0.05 2.33 2.38

2049 16.65 15.58 -1.07 222 -0.05 2.33 2.39

2050 16.63 15.58 -1.05 218 -0.06 2.34 2.39

2051 16.62 15.58 -1.04 215 -0.06 2.34 2.39

2052 16.62 15.58 -1.04 212 -0.06 2.34 2.40

2053 16.63 15.59 -1.04 209 -0.06 2.34 2.40

2054 16.64 15.59 -1.05 205 -0.06 2.34 2.40

2055 16.65 15.59 -1.06 201 -0.07 2.34 2.41

2056 16.67 15.59 -1.08 198 -0.07 2.34 2.41

2057 16.69 15.60 -1.10 194 -0.07 2.34 2.41

2058 16.71 15.60 -1.11 190 -0.07 2.34 2.42

2059 16.72 15.60 -1.12 186 -0.07 2.35 2.42

2060 16.73 15.61 -1.12 181 -0.08 2.35 2.42

2061 16.74 15.61 -1.13 177 -0.08 2.35 2.43

2062 16.75 15.61 -1.14 173 -0.08 2.35 2.43

2063 16.76 15.61 -1.14 168 -0.08 2.35 2.43

2064 16.77 15.62 -1.15 164 -0.08 2.35 2.43

2065 16.79 15.62 -1.17 159 -0.08 2.35 2.44

2066 16.81 15.62 -1.18 154 -0.08 2.35 2.44

2067 16.83 15.62 -1.20 149 -0.08 2.36 2.44

2068 16.85 15.63 -1.23 144 -0.09 2.36 2.44

2069 16.88 15.63 -1.25 139 -0.09 2.36 2.45

2070 16.91 15.63 -1.28 133 -0.09 2.36 2.45

2071 16.95 15.64 -1.31 127 -0.09 2.36 2.45

2072 16.98 15.64 -1.34 121 -0.09 2.36 2.45

2073 17.01 15.65 -1.37 115 -0.09 2.36 2.45

2074 17.05 15.65 -1.40 108 -0.09 2.37 2.46

2075 17.09 15.65 -1.43 101 -0.09 2.37 2.46

2076 17.12 15.66 -1.46 94 -0.09 2.37 2.46

2077 17.16 15.66 -1.50 87 -0.09 2.37 2.46

2078 17.19 15.66 -1.53 80 -0.09 2.37 2.46

2079 17.23 15.67 -1.56 72 -0.09 2.37 2.47

2080 17.27 15.67 -1.60 64 -0.09 2.37 2.47

2081 17.31 15.68 -1.63 55 -0.09 2.37 2.47

2082 17.34 15.68 -1.66 47 -0.09 2.38 2.47

2083 17.38 15.68 -1.70 38 -0.09 2.38 2.47

2084 17.42 15.69 -1.74 29 -0.09 2.38 2.47

2085 17.46 15.69 -1.77 20 -0.09 2.38 2.47

2086 17.50 15.69 -1.80 10 -0.09 2.38 2.47

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

16.21% 16.07% -0.13% N/A -0.04% 2.05% 2.09%

1 Under present law the year of exhaustion is 2036

September 7, 2011

Sanders Proposal: Starting 2012, Apply the FICA/SECA Payroll Tax to Annual Earnings in Excess of the Higher of $250,000 or Present 

Law Contribution and Benefit Base, with No Additional Credit for Individual Benefit Levels

Summarized Rates: OASDI

Year of 

Exhaustion1

Summarized Rates: OASDI

2011 - 2085

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll

Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

Proposal Change in Present Law
Percentage

of Payroll

Annual

Amounts

Accumulated as of 

End of Year

Gross Domestic 

Product

Without General

Fund Transfers

With Plan General

Fund Transfers

(1) (2) (3) (5) (6) (7) (8)

2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,564.6 14,904.1 2,564.6 2,564.6

2012 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,603.8 14,951.5 2,545.0 2,545.0

2013 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,653.5 15,099.9 2,527.9 2,527.9

2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,710.1 15,251.0 2,513.4 2,513.4

2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,768.4 15,351.9 2,496.7 2,496.7

2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,827.2 15,378.4 2,476.9 2,476.9

2017 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,882.9 15,366.5 2,451.1 2,451.1

2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,934.2 15,366.9 2,417.9 2,417.9

2019 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,973.7 15,345.6 2,370.3 2,370.3

2020 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,996.4 15,301.1 2,305.9 2,305.9

2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,004.4 15,242.3 2,224.7 2,224.7

2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,999.0 15,159.1 2,127.6 2,127.6

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,980.9 15,052.7 2,015.9 2,015.9

2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,951.5 14,924.4 1,890.9 1,890.9

2025 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,911.9 14,765.8 1,753.6 1,753.6

2026 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,863.3 14,596.0 1,605.5 1,605.5

2027 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,807.7 14,436.0 1,448.1 1,448.1

2028 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,746.5 14,276.4 1,282.9 1,282.9

2029 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,681.6 14,114.5 1,111.6 1,111.6

2030 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,614.7 13,958.1 935.7 935.7

2031 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,547.7 13,813.5 757.0 757.0

2032 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,481.3 13,670.9 576.1 576.1

2033 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,415.2 13,528.0 393.8 393.8

2034 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,347.8 13,387.2 211.4 211.4

2035 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,280.0 13,245.5 29.8 29.8

2036 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,212.2 13,107.1 -150.6 -150.6

2037 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,145.1 12,971.3 -329.1 -329.1

2038 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,079.9 12,843.4 -504.7 -504.7

2039 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,016.9 12,714.4 -676.9 -676.9

2040 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,956.3 12,582.3 -845.5 -845.5

2041 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,898.4 12,453.7 -1,010.4 -1,010.4

2042 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,843.0 12,326.2 -1,171.6 -1,171.6

2043 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,789.9 12,197.5 -1,329.5 -1,329.5

2044 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,738.6 12,069.4 -1,484.4 -1,484.4

2045 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,689.2 11,941.2 -1,636.3 -1,636.3

2046 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,641.7 11,813.2 -1,785.2 -1,785.2

2047 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,595.7 11,684.0 -1,931.5 -1,931.5

2048 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,551.3 11,555.8 -2,075.1 -2,075.1

2049 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,508.3 11,428.4 -2,216.1 -2,216.1

2050 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,466.5 11,301.9 -2,354.8 -2,354.8

2051 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,425.7 11,175.5 -2,491.4 -2,491.4

2052 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,385.5 11,049.7 -2,626.4 -2,626.4

2053 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,345.7 10,924.7 -2,759.9 -2,759.9

2054 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,306.1 10,800.1 -2,892.1 -2,892.1

2055 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,266.5 10,677.6 -3,023.3 -3,023.3

2056 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,226.8 10,555.1 -3,153.5 -3,153.5

2057 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,187.0 10,434.5 -3,282.7 -3,282.7

2058 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,147.3 10,315.5 -3,410.8 -3,410.8

2059 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,107.7 10,198.7 -3,537.8 -3,537.8

2060 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,068.4 10,084.5 -3,663.4 -3,663.4

2061 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,029.5 9,971.5 -3,787.8 -3,787.8

2062 0.0 0.0 0.0 990.7 9,860.0 -3,911.0 -3,911.0

2063 0.0 0.0 0.0 952.2 9,750.1 -4,032.9 -4,032.9

2064 0.0 0.0 0.0 913.8 9,640.9 -4,153.8 -4,153.8

2065 0.0 0.0 0.0 875.5 9,532.4 -4,273.6 -4,273.6

2066 0.0 0.0 0.0 837.1 9,425.1 -4,392.6 -4,392.6

2067 0.0 0.0 0.0 798.5 9,319.2 -4,510.8 -4,510.8

2068 0.0 0.0 0.0 759.7 9,214.2 -4,628.3 -4,628.3

2069 0.0 0.0 0.0 720.6 9,109.6 -4,745.1 -4,745.1

2070 0.0 0.0 0.0 681.1 9,005.9 -4,861.5 -4,861.5

2071 0.0 0.0 0.0 641.2 8,903.0 -4,977.2 -4,977.2

2072 0.0 0.0 0.0 601.0 8,801.0 -5,092.4 -5,092.4

2073 0.0 0.0 0.0 560.4 8,699.7 -5,207.2 -5,207.2

2074 0.0 0.0 0.0 519.2 8,599.7 -5,321.6 -5,321.6

2075 0.0 0.0 0.0 477.7 8,500.5 -5,435.5 -5,435.5

2076 0.0 0.0 0.0 435.7 8,402.2 -5,548.9 -5,548.9

2077 0.0 0.0 0.0 393.4 8,304.6 -5,661.8 -5,661.8

2078 0.0 0.0 0.0 350.8 8,207.6 -5,774.2 -5,774.2

2079 0.0 0.0 0.0 307.7 8,111.3 -5,886.2 -5,886.2

2080 0.0 0.0 0.0 264.3 8,015.9 -5,997.7 -5,997.7

2081 0.0 0.0 0.0 220.5 7,921.4 -6,108.7 -6,108.7

2082 0.0 0.0 0.0 176.4 7,827.9 -6,219.3 -6,219.3

2083 0.0 0.0 0.0 131.8 7,734.9 -6,329.5 -6,329.5

2084 0.0 0.0 0.0 86.9 7,642.9 -6,439.2 -6,439.2

2085 0.0 0.0 0.0 41.7 7,552.1 -6,548.4 -6,548.4

Total 2011-2085 0.0

Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report Office of the Chief Actuary

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9% Social Security Administration

September 7, 2011

1

 Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption

 that the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury.

Sanders Proposal: Starting 2012, Apply the FICA/SECA Payroll Tax to Annual Earnings in Excess of the Higher of $250,000 or Present Law 

Contribution and Benefit Base, with No Additional Credit for Individual Benefit Levels

Table 1a - General Fund Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Assets, and Theoretical OASDI Assets

Proposal General Fund Transfers Present Value in Billions as of 1-1-2011

Proposal

Total OASDI

Trust Fund

Assets 

at End of Year

Theoretical Social Security1

with Borrowing Authority

Present Value in Billions as of 1-1- 2011 Net OASDI Trust Fund Assets at End of Year

Calendar

Year
Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End Of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2012 0.0 58.8 58.8 -58.8 58.8 0.0 0.0

2013 0.0 66.7 66.7 -125.5 69.2 0.0 0.0

2014 0.0 71.2 71.2 -196.7 76.5 0.0 0.0

2015 0.0 75.1 75.1 -271.8 83.5 0.0 0.0

2016 0.0 78.5 78.5 -350.3 90.3 0.0 0.0

2017 0.0 81.5 81.5 -431.8 96.8 0.0 0.0

2018 0.0 84.6 84.6 -516.4 104.0 0.0 0.0

2019 0.0 87.0 87.0 -603.4 110.8 0.0 0.0

2020 0.0 87.1 87.1 -690.4 115.4 0.0 0.0

2021 0.0 89.3 89.3 -779.8 122.8 0.0 0.0

2022 0.0 91.6 91.6 -871.3 130.5 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 93.6 93.6 -965.0 138.5 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 95.7 95.7 -1,060.7 146.9 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 97.6 97.6 -1,158.3 155.6 0.0 0.0

2026 0.0 99.6 99.6 -1,257.9 162.9 0.0 0.0

2027 0.0 101.8 101.8 -1,359.6 170.5 0.0 0.0

2028 0.0 104.0 104.0 -1,463.6 178.3 0.0 0.0

2029 0.0 106.4 106.4 -1,570.0 186.4 0.0 0.0

2030 0.0 108.9 108.9 -1,679.0 194.8 0.0 0.0

2031 0.0 111.7 111.7 -1,790.7 203.5 0.0 0.0

2032 0.0 114.6 114.6 -1,905.2 212.4 0.0 0.0

2033 0.0 116.1 116.1 -2,021.3 220.2 0.0 0.0

2034 0.0 115.0 115.0 -2,136.4 225.5 0.0 0.0

2035 0.0 113.8 113.8 -2,250.2 230.6 0.0 0.0

2036 0.0 112.6 112.6 -2,362.8 235.6 0.0 0.0

2037 0.0 111.4 111.4 -2,474.2 240.6 0.0 0.0

2038 0.0 110.3 110.3 -2,584.6 245.5 0.0 0.0

2039 0.0 109.2 109.2 -2,693.8 250.5 0.0 0.0

2040 0.0 108.1 108.1 -2,801.8 255.3 0.0 0.0

2041 0.0 107.0 107.0 -2,908.8 260.1 0.0 0.0

2042 0.0 105.9 105.9 -3,014.7 264.8 0.0 0.0

2043 0.0 104.7 104.7 -3,119.4 269.5 0.0 0.0

2044 0.0 103.6 103.6 -3,223.0 274.1 0.0 0.0

2045 0.0 102.5 102.5 -3,325.5 278.6 0.0 0.0

2046 0.0 101.4 101.4 -3,426.9 283.1 0.0 0.0

2047 0.0 100.3 100.3 -3,527.2 287.5 0.0 0.0

2048 0.0 99.1 99.1 -3,626.3 291.9 0.0 0.0

2049 0.0 98.0 98.0 -3,724.4 296.2 0.0 0.0

2050 0.0 96.9 96.9 -3,821.3 300.5 0.0 0.0

2051 0.0 95.9 95.9 -3,917.2 304.7 0.0 0.0

2052 0.0 94.8 94.8 -4,011.9 308.9 0.0 0.0

2053 0.0 93.7 93.7 -4,105.6 313.0 0.0 0.0

2054 0.0 92.6 92.6 -4,198.2 317.0 0.0 0.0

2055 0.0 91.6 91.6 -4,289.8 321.0 0.0 0.0

2056 0.0 90.5 90.5 -4,380.3 324.9 0.0 0.0

2057 0.0 89.4 89.4 -4,469.7 328.8 0.0 0.0

2058 0.0 88.4 88.4 -4,558.1 332.7 0.0 0.0

2059 0.0 87.4 87.4 -4,645.5 336.5 0.0 0.0

2060 0.0 86.4 86.4 -4,731.9 340.3 0.0 0.0

2061 0.0 85.4 85.4 -4,817.3 344.0 0.0 0.0

2062 0.0 84.4 84.4 -4,901.7 347.7 0.0 0.0

2063 0.0 83.4 83.4 -4,985.1 351.3 0.0 0.0

2064 0.0 82.5 82.5 -5,067.6 354.9 0.0 0.0

2065 0.0 81.5 81.5 -5,149.1 358.5 0.0 0.0

2066 0.0 80.6 80.6 -5,229.7 362.0 0.0 0.0

2067 0.0 79.6 79.6 -5,309.3 365.4 0.0 0.0

2068 0.0 78.7 78.7 -5,387.9 368.8 0.0 0.0

2069 0.0 77.7 77.7 -5,465.7 372.2 0.0 0.0

2070 0.0 76.8 76.8 -5,542.5 375.5 0.0 0.0

2071 0.0 75.9 75.9 -5,618.4 378.8 0.0 0.0

2072 0.0 75.0 75.0 -5,693.5 382.1 0.0 0.0

2073 0.0 74.1 74.1 -5,767.6 385.3 0.0 0.0

2074 0.0 73.2 73.2 -5,840.8 388.4 0.0 0.0

2075 0.0 72.4 72.4 -5,913.2 391.6 0.0 0.0

2076 0.0 71.5 71.5 -5,984.6 394.6 0.0 0.0

2077 0.0 70.6 70.6 -6,055.3 397.7 0.0 0.0

2078 0.0 69.8 69.8 -6,125.0 400.7 0.0 0.0

2079 0.0 68.9 68.9 -6,193.9 403.7 0.0 0.0

2080 0.0 68.1 68.1 -6,262.0 406.6 0.0 0.0

2081 0.0 67.2 67.2 -6,329.3 409.5 0.0 0.0

2082 0.0 66.4 66.4 -6,395.7 412.3 0.0 0.0

2083 0.0 65.6 65.6 -6,461.3 415.2 0.0 0.0

2084 0.0 64.8 64.8 -6,526.1 417.9 0.0 0.0

2085 0.0 64.0 64.0 -6,590.1 420.7 0.0 0.0

0.0 6,590.1 6,590.1

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9% Social Security Administration

1

 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table.

Sanders Proposal: Starting 2012, Apply the FICA/SECA Payroll Tax to Annual Earnings in Excess of the Higher of $250,000 or Present Law 

Contribution and Benefit Base, with No Additional Credit for Individual Benefit Levels

Table 1b - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1 (Present Value Dollars

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2011

Total 2011-85

September 7, 2011
Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2012 0.0 62.7 62.7 -64.0 64.0 0.0 0.0

2013 0.0 74.2 74.2 -142.6 78.6 0.0 0.0

2014 0.0 82.6 82.6 -233.2 90.6 0.0 0.0

2015 0.0 91.0 91.0 -336.5 103.3 0.0 0.0

2016 0.0 99.5 99.5 -453.2 116.7 0.0 0.0

2017 0.0 107.9 107.9 -583.9 130.8 0.0 0.0

2018 0.0 117.2 117.2 -730.6 146.6 0.0 0.0

2019 0.0 126.3 126.3 -894.2 163.7 0.0 0.0

2020 0.0 132.5 132.5 -1,073.1 178.9 0.0 0.0

2021 0.0 142.8 142.8 -1,272.3 199.2 0.0 0.0

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

September 7, 2011

Table 1b.n - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1 (Nominal Dollars)

Billions of Nominal Dollars

1

 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table.

Sanders Proposal: Starting 2012, Apply the FICA/SECA Payroll Tax to Annual Earnings in Excess of the Higher of $250,000 or Present Law 

Contribution and Benefit Base, with No Additional Credit for Individual Benefit Levels
Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

2011 4.85 4.85 4.55 4.85 4.85 4.55

2012 4.84 4.84 4.71 4.84 4.84 5.10

2013 4.84 4.84 4.73 4.84 4.84 5.17

2014 4.86 4.86 4.76 4.86 4.86 5.22

2015 4.89 4.89 4.78 4.89 4.89 5.27

2016 4.95 4.95 4.82 4.95 4.95 5.33

2017 5.02 5.02 4.85 5.02 5.02 5.38

2018 5.10 5.10 4.88 5.10 5.10 5.43

2019 5.21 5.21 4.89 5.20 5.20 5.46

2020 5.32 5.32 4.89 5.32 5.32 5.46

2021 5.43 5.43 4.89 5.43 5.43 5.47

2022 5.53 5.53 4.88 5.53 5.53 5.49

2023 5.63 5.63 4.88 5.62 5.62 5.50

2024 5.72 5.72 4.87 5.71 5.71 5.51

2025 5.81 5.81 4.87 5.80 5.80 5.53

2026 5.89 5.89 4.87 5.88 5.88 5.54

2027 5.96 5.96 4.86 5.95 5.95 5.56

2028 6.02 6.02 4.86 6.02 6.02 5.58

2029 6.08 6.08 4.86 6.07 6.07 5.60

2030 6.12 6.12 4.85 6.11 6.11 5.63

2031 6.15 6.15 4.85 6.14 6.14 5.65

2032 6.18 6.18 4.85 6.17 6.17 5.68

2033 6.20 6.20 4.85 6.19 6.19 5.69

2034 6.21 6.21 4.84 6.20 6.20 5.69

2035 6.22 6.22 4.84 6.21 6.21 5.69

2036 6.22 5.05 4.83 6.21 6.21 5.68

2037 6.21 4.83 4.83 6.20 6.20 5.68

2038 6.20 4.82 4.82 6.19 6.19 5.67

2039 6.18 4.82 4.82 6.17 6.17 5.66

2040 6.16 4.81 4.81 6.15 6.15 5.66

2041 6.14 4.81 4.81 6.12 6.12 5.65

2042 6.11 4.80 4.80 6.10 6.10 5.64

2043 6.09 4.79 4.79 6.08 6.08 5.64

2044 6.08 4.79 4.79 6.06 6.06 5.63

2045 6.06 4.78 4.78 6.04 6.04 5.62

2046 6.04 4.77 4.77 6.02 6.02 5.61

2047 6.02 4.77 4.77 6.01 6.01 5.60

2048 6.01 4.76 4.76 5.99 5.99 5.60

2049 5.99 4.75 4.75 5.97 5.97 5.59

2050 5.98 4.74 4.74 5.96 5.96 5.58

2051 5.97 4.74 4.74 5.95 5.95 5.57

2052 5.96 4.73 4.73 5.94 5.94 5.57

2053 5.95 4.73 4.73 5.93 5.93 5.56

2054 5.95 4.72 4.72 5.93 5.93 5.55

2055 5.95 4.71 4.71 5.92 5.92 5.55

2056 5.95 4.71 4.71 5.92 5.92 5.54

2057 5.94 4.70 4.70 5.92 5.92 5.53

2058 5.94 4.69 4.69 5.92 5.92 5.52

2059 5.94 4.69 4.69 5.91 5.91 5.52

2060 5.93 4.68 4.68 5.91 5.91 5.51

2061 5.93 4.68 4.68 5.90 5.90 5.50

2062 5.93 4.67 4.67 5.90 5.90 5.50

2063 5.92 4.66 4.66 5.89 5.89 5.49

2064 5.92 4.66 4.66 5.89 5.89 5.48

2065 5.91 4.65 4.65 5.89 5.89 5.48

2066 5.91 4.64 4.64 5.88 5.88 5.47

2067 5.91 4.64 4.64 5.88 5.88 5.46

2068 5.91 4.63 4.63 5.88 5.88 5.45

2069 5.92 4.63 4.63 5.88 5.88 5.45

2070 5.92 4.62 4.62 5.89 5.89 5.44

2071 5.92 4.62 4.62 5.89 5.89 5.44

2072 5.92 4.61 4.61 5.89 5.89 5.43

2073 5.93 4.60 4.60 5.90 5.90 5.42

2074 5.94 4.60 4.60 5.90 5.90 5.42

2075 5.94 4.59 4.59 5.91 5.91 5.41

2076 5.94 4.59 4.59 5.91 5.91 5.41

2077 5.95 4.58 4.58 5.92 5.92 5.40

2078 5.96 4.58 4.58 5.92 5.92 5.40

2079 5.96 4.58 4.58 5.93 5.93 5.39

2080 5.97 4.57 4.57 5.94 5.94 5.39

2081 5.98 4.57 4.57 5.94 5.94 5.38

2082 5.98 4.56 4.56 5.95 5.95 5.38

2083 5.99 4.56 4.56 5.96 5.96 5.38

2084 6.00 4.56 4.56 5.97 5.97 5.37

2085 6.01 4.55 4.55 5.97 5.97 5.37

Social Security Administration

September 7, 2011

Table 1c - Present Law and Proposal Cost, Expenditures, and Income: As Percent of Gross Domestic Pro

Present Law OASDI Proposal OASDI

Calendar

Year

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Sanders Proposal: Starting 2012, Apply the FICA/SECA Payroll Tax to Annual Earnings in Excess of the 

Higher of $250,000 or Present Law Contribution and Benefit Base, with No Additional Credit for Individual 

Benefit Levels
Year

Present Law OASDI

Trust Fund Assets /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Total Change

Through

End of Year

Proposal OASDI

Trust Fund Assets /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) = cumulative sum(4) (6) = (1)+(5)

2011 2,564.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,564.6

2012 2,545.0 58.8 0.0 58.8 58.8 2,603.8

2013 2,527.9 66.7 0.0 66.7 125.5 2,653.5

2014 2,513.4 71.2 0.0 71.2 196.7 2,710.1

2015 2,496.7 75.0 0.0 75.1 271.8 2,768.4

2016 2,476.9 78.5 0.0 78.5 350.3 2,827.2

2017 2,451.1 81.4 -0.1 81.5 431.8 2,882.9

2018 2,417.9 84.5 -0.1 84.6 516.4 2,934.2

2019 2,370.3 86.9 -0.1 87.0 603.4 2,973.7

2020 2,305.9 86.9 -0.2 87.1 690.4 2,996.4

2021 2,224.7 89.1 -0.3 89.3 779.8 3,004.4

2022 2,127.6 91.2 -0.3 91.6 871.3 2,999.0

2023 2,015.9 93.2 -0.4 93.6 965.0 2,980.9

2024 1,890.9 95.2 -0.5 95.7 1,060.7 2,951.5

2025 1,753.6 97.0 -0.6 97.6 1,158.3 2,911.9

2026 1,605.5 98.9 -0.7 99.6 1,257.9 2,863.3

2027 1,448.1 101.0 -0.7 101.8 1,359.6 2,807.7

2028 1,282.9 103.2 -0.8 104.0 1,463.6 2,746.5

2029 1,111.6 105.5 -0.9 106.4 1,570.0 2,681.6

2030 935.7 108.0 -0.9 108.9 1,679.0 2,614.7

2031 757.0 110.7 -1.0 111.7 1,790.7 2,547.7

2032 576.1 113.5 -1.1 114.6 1,905.2 2,481.3

2033 393.8 115.0 -1.1 116.1 2,021.3 2,415.2

2034 211.4 113.8 -1.2 115.0 2,136.4 2,347.8

2035 29.8 112.6 -1.3 113.8 2,250.2 2,280.0

2036 -150.6 111.3 -1.3 112.6 2,362.8 2,212.2

2037 -329.1 110.0 -1.4 111.4 2,474.2 2,145.1

2038 -504.7 108.9 -1.5 110.3 2,584.6 2,079.9

2039 -676.9 107.7 -1.5 109.2 2,693.8 2,016.9

2040 -845.5 106.5 -1.6 108.1 2,801.8 1,956.3

2041 -1,010.4 105.3 -1.7 107.0 2,908.8 1,898.4

2042 -1,171.6 104.1 -1.7 105.9 3,014.7 1,843.0

2043 -1,329.5 103.0 -1.8 104.7 3,119.4 1,789.9

2044 -1,484.4 101.8 -1.9 103.6 3,223.0 1,738.6

2045 -1,636.3 100.6 -1.9 102.5 3,325.5 1,689.2

2046 -1,785.2 99.4 -2.0 101.4 3,426.9 1,641.7

2047 -1,931.5 98.2 -2.1 100.3 3,527.2 1,595.7

2048 -2,075.1 97.0 -2.1 99.1 3,626.3 1,551.3

2049 -2,216.1 95.9 -2.2 98.0 3,724.4 1,508.3

2050 -2,354.8 94.7 -2.2 96.9 3,821.3 1,466.5

2051 -2,491.4 93.6 -2.3 95.9 3,917.2 1,425.7

2052 -2,626.4 92.4 -2.4 94.8 4,011.9 1,385.5

2053 -2,759.9 91.3 -2.4 93.7 4,105.6 1,345.7

2054 -2,892.1 90.2 -2.5 92.6 4,198.2 1,306.1

2055 -3,023.3 89.0 -2.5 91.6 4,289.8 1,266.5

2056 -3,153.5 87.9 -2.6 90.5 4,380.3 1,226.8

2057 -3,282.7 86.8 -2.6 89.4 4,469.7 1,187.0

2058 -3,410.8 85.8 -2.6 88.4 4,558.1 1,147.3

2059 -3,537.8 84.7 -2.7 87.4 4,645.5 1,107.7

2060 -3,663.4 83.7 -2.7 86.4 4,731.9 1,068.4

2061 -3,787.8 82.7 -2.7 85.4 4,817.3 1,029.5

2062 -3,911.0 81.7 -2.7 84.4 4,901.7 990.7

2063 -4,032.9 80.7 -2.7 83.4 4,985.1 952.2

2064 -4,153.8 79.7 -2.7 82.5 5,067.6 913.8

2065 -4,273.6 78.8 -2.8 81.5 5,149.1 875.5

2066 -4,392.6 77.8 -2.8 80.6 5,229.7 837.1

2067 -4,510.8 76.8 -2.8 79.6 5,309.3 798.5

2068 -4,628.3 75.9 -2.8 78.7 5,387.9 759.7

2069 -4,745.1 75.0 -2.8 77.7 5,465.7 720.6

2070 -4,861.5 74.1 -2.8 76.8 5,542.5 681.1

2071 -4,977.2 73.2 -2.7 75.9 5,618.4 641.2

2072 -5,092.4 72.3 -2.7 75.0 5,693.5 601.0

2073 -5,207.2 71.4 -2.7 74.1 5,767.6 560.4

2074 -5,321.6 70.5 -2.7 73.2 5,840.8 519.2

2075 -5,435.5 69.7 -2.7 72.4 5,913.2 477.7

2076 -5,548.9 68.8 -2.7 71.5 5,984.6 435.7

2077 -5,661.8 68.0 -2.7 70.6 6,055.3 393.4

2078 -5,774.2 67.1 -2.6 69.8 6,125.0 350.8

2079 -5,886.2 66.3 -2.6 68.9 6,193.9 307.7

2080 -5,997.7 65.5 -2.6 68.1 6,262.0 264.3

2081 -6,108.7 64.7 -2.6 67.2 6,329.3 220.5

2082 -6,219.3 63.9 -2.5 66.4 6,395.7 176.4

2083 -6,329.5 63.1 -2.5 65.6 6,461.3 131.8

2084 -6,439.2 62.3 -2.5 64.8 6,526.1 86.9

2085 -6,548.4 61.6 -2.4 64.0 6,590.1 41.7

Total 2011-2085 6459.2 -130.9 6590.1

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%. September 7, 2011

Table 1d - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Assets / Unfunded Obligation

(Billions of Dollars, Present Value on 1-1-2011)

Sanders Proposal: Starting 2012, Apply the FICA/SECA Payroll Tax to Annual Earnings in Excess of the Higher of $250,000 or Present Law Contribution 

and Benefit Base, with No Additional Credit for Individual Benefit Levels