SOCIAL SECURITY

MEMORANDUM 

Date: February 10, 2005 Refer To: TCA

To: Bob Pozen 

From: Stephen C. Goss 

Chief Actuary 

Subject: Estimated Financial Effects of a Comprehensive Social Security Reform Proposal Including 

Progressive Price Indexing --INFORMATION 

This memorandum provides estimates of the financial effects of the plan you have developed 

for modifying the benefit and financing provisions of the Social Security program. Included 

is a description of the plan and the assumptions used for the estimates. 

Under the plan specifications described below the Social Security program (OASDI) would 

be expected to be solvent and to meet its benefit obligations throughout the long-range period 

2004 through 2078. Moreover, because the combined OASDI Trust Funds are projected to be 

rising as a percentage of the annual cost of the program at the end of 75 years, the plan would 

be expected to restore sustainable solvency for the program, that is, the program would be 

expected to be financially solvent for the foreseeable future. All estimates are based on the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report plus additional assumptions described 

below. 

The plan provides for a modification of the basic benefit formula except for the lowest 30 

percent of career-average earners whose basic benefits would be unchanged under the plan. It 

would provide reductions beginning in 2012 for higher paid workers. The reductions would 

be smaller for workers at medium career earnings levels and larger for workers at higher 

career earnings levels, reaching the equivalent of full CPI indexing of the benefit for the very 

highest earners. Individuals becoming eligible for benefits before 2012 would not be affected 

by this change in the basic benefit formula. 

This plan would establish voluntary, progressive individual accounts starting in 2007 for 

workers who were under age 55 on January 1, 2005 and would provide for an offset against 

Social Security retirement and aged survivor benefits for those who participate. In addition, 

for those who die before receiving benefits and have no surviving spouse, their estate would 

receive the balance in their IA at death minus an offset that would be paid to the Trust Funds 

to compensate for their earlier allocations of a portion of their payroll taxes to their IA. 
2

Individual account (IA) assets would be invested through a central administrative authority 

(CAA) with a required allocation of 60 percent in broad indexed equity funds, 24 percent in 

broad indexed corporate bond funds, and 16 percent in a long-term Treasury bond fund. CPIindexed life annuities would be available for purchase from the CAA with IA accumulations 

at the time of retirement. IA contributions would be redirected from the OASI Trust Fund. 

The ability of the Social Security Trust Funds to meet benefit obligations would be 

maintained through transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury when needed ; such 

transfers are expected to be needed for years 2030 through 2072. 

Plan Specifications 

Basic Benefit Provision: Progressive CPI-Indexing 

The primary insurance amount (PIA) formula used for the computation of all monthly benefits 

under the OASDI program would be changed starting for those becoming eligible for benefits 

in 2012. This provision was first developed based on your thinking in 2003, as documented in 

an earlier memorandum to you dated August 21, 2003. The following three-step approach 

would be used. 

A. Begin by computing the percentage benefit reduction that would apply for the 

highest career-average earner becoming eligible for a retired worker benefit in each 

year 2012 and later based on CPI-indexing the PIA formula (as specified in Model 2 

of the President’s Commission to Strengthen Social Security). 

B. Then create a new “bend point” in the Social Security PIA formula at the level of the 

career-average earnings of the retiree at the 30th percentile of those becoming 

eligible for benefits in 2010, and wage index this bend point forward like the two 

current bend points. This new bend point is estimated to be 28.6 percent of the way 

up from the current first bend point to the current second bend point. 

C. Calculate the percentage reduction to the “PIA factors” (32 and 15) that applies 

beyond the new PIA bend point that will provide the benefit reduction described 

above for the “maximum” earner reaching retirement eligibility for each year 2012 

and later. 

This proposal would replicate benefit reductions for the very highest career-average earners 

that are provided under a CPI-indexed benefit formula. Benefit levels would be reduced to a 

lesser extent for workers with lower career-average earnings, with no reduction for those at or 

below the 30th percentile of career-average earnings (AIME). The career average annual 

indexed earnings level used for Social Security benefit purposes is estimated to be about 

$25,000 at the 30th percentile for retirees becoming eligible for benefits in 2012. 

The reductions under this provision would continue through at least 2078 (the end of the 

current 75-year valuation period.) Reductions would be less in size thereafter if program 

financing is sufficient to fully pay scheduled benefits without further transfers of General 

Revenue. 
3

Individual Accounts 

Starting in 2007, all workers who were under 55 on January 1, 2005 will have the option to 

enroll in the individual account plan. Enrollees with earnings in OASDI (Social Security) 

covered employment will have a portion of their payroll tax contribution (12.4 percent of 

taxable earnings in total) redirected from the OASI Trust Fund to an individual account. The 

percentage of taxable earnings to be redirected in 2007 will be 2 percent of the worker’s 

OASDI taxable earnings, up to a maximum IA contribution of $3,000. For years after 2007, 

the limit on the 2-percent IA contribution would be indexed by growth in the CPI-W, as 

computed for the OASDI cost of living adjustment. In fact, under the intermediate 

projections of the 2004 Trustees Report, the limitation would not begin to affect contributions 

for even the highest earners until 2048. Thereafter, the effective dollar limit on annual IA 

contributions would grow with price inflation (the cost of living). 

IA contributions for a worker based on a year’s earnings are not determinable until earnings 

are reported to and tabulated by the Social Security Administration. Because this reporting is 

made by employers on an annual basis, after the end of the calendar year, amounts for 

individual workers are not determinable for somewhat over a year, on average, after the date 

on which earnings are paid. Under the proposal, IA contributions during this initial period 

would be determined based on employer reports of aggregate OASDI taxable earnings of their 

employees, and would be invested in aggregate on behalf of the workers in the required 

account portfolio. The accumulated IA contributions would be allocated to the individual 

accounts of specific workers as soon as current earnings reporting permits. Allocations would 

be made assuming that the pattern of earnings throughout the year was the same for all 

workers. 

Under the plan, IA assets, once allocated on an individual basis, would be automatically 

invested in the required portfolio through a central administrative authority that would 

maintain all records of individual transactions and balances. The required portfolio for 

individual accounts is specified as 60 percent in broad indexed equity funds, 24 percent in 

broad indexed corporate bond funds, and 16 percent in a long-term Treasury bond fund, and 

would be rebalanced daily. Alternatively, the required portfolio could be specified as a lifecycle fund that is more heavily invested in equities at younger ages, and less heavily in 

equities at later ages. If this were the approach taken for the required portfolio under this 

proposal, the life-cycle fund allocations would be specified so as to produce an expected 

accumulation for each cohort of workers that is equivalent to the expected accumulation based 

on the fixed 60/24/16 portfolio allocation. The central administrative authority would group 

the assets of all participating individuals for the purpose of transactions with private 

investment firms. 

IA Disbursements and Annuitization 

At retirement, the participating worker could purchase a life annuity with CPI-indexed 

payments using a portion of the worker’s IA accumulation. The annuity would be 

administered by the central administrative authority, with private investment firms handling 

the investment of assets on an aggregated (group) basis. The annuities would be computed 
4

using the assumed long-term future returns on Treasury bonds as determined by the central 

administrative authority at the time of annuitization. The central administrative authority 

would be backed by the Treasury of the United States government. Thus, the General Fund of 

the Treasury would provide the “insurance” that the full amount of the annuity will be paid 

for life regardless of actual investment returns. 

IA assets would be exempt from income tax during the period of accumulation. All 

disbursements from individual accounts, including annuity payments, would be subject to 

Federal personal income tax in the same manner as are regular monthly OASDI benefit 

payments, with revenue transferred to the trust funds. 

For individuals who die before receiving retirement (retired worker or aged spouse) benefits, 

the IA assets will be transferred to the account of the surviving spouse, if any, but will be 

allocated as needed to provide annuities for any surviving children of the deceased. If there 

are no survivors, and the worker dies before such benefit entitlement, their estate would 

receive the balance in their IA at death minus an offset that would be paid to the Trust Funds 

to compensate for their earlier allocations of a portion of their payroll taxes to their IA. The 

portion going to the trust funds reflects the hypothetical account accumulation for offsets (see 

below). If a married couple divorces before retirement then the accumulated IA assets from 

contributions for the years of marriage will be divided equally between the spouses. 

Benefit Offsets Based on Individual Account Contributions 

Offsets against OASI retired worker, aged spouse and aged widow(er) benefits would be 

based on a hypothetical account accumulation (a shadow account) with a specified real 

benefit–offset yield rate of 3 percent (3 percent above the actual rate of CPI-W inflation prior 

to retirement and 3 percent above the CAA expected future rate of CPI inflation for years 

after retirement). The hypothetical account accumulation will include IA contributions 

reflected in the individual’s own IA, including any amounts based on IA assets inherited from 

a deceased spouse or received at the time of allocation at divorce. The offsets would be 

applied to OASI aged benefits received by the individual on the basis of a CPI-indexed life 

annuity calculation reflecting the value of the shadow account at retirement, the benefit offset 

yield rate, and the expected unisex mortality used in the most recent OASDI Trustees Report 

(intermediate projections) for persons with the beneficiary’s year of birth. For married 

couples, the benefit offset would be computed and applied on a combined basis. 

Central Administrative Authority 

The central administrative authority would maintain records and issue periodic statements to 

account holders. The IA management would be based on the design of the government 

employee Thrift Savings Plan (TSP), with limited reporting requirements. Aggregated assets 

would be invested by privately managed investment firms. Through this approach it is 

assumed that IA administrative costs can be expected to be modest, ultimately around 0.30 

percent of IA assets on average, with this being the charge for each account holder. This 

might require some Federal subsidy in early years for the IA, when account balances are low 

and start-up costs are incurred. 
5

General Fund Transfers to the Trust Funds 

The OASDI Trust Funds will receive transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury if, at 

any time, the combined OASDI Trust Fund ratio (TFR, the ratio of assets in the trust funds to 

the projected cost of the program for the next 12 months) is expected to fall below 100 

percent under the provisions of the plan during the following year. Transfers would be 

sufficient to maintain this 100 percent TFR. This provision would guarantee solvency and 

sustainable solvency for the trust funds in any circumstance. 

Assumptions 

As indicated above, estimates provided in this memorandum are based on the intermediate 

assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report. 

Given the nature of the individual accounts and the offsets, individual account participation is 

expected to be substantial, but not universal. Because IA participation requires no additional 

contribution by workers, and the account assets would not be subject to potential future 

modification (as are basic monthly OASDI benefits), most individuals are expected to 

participate. The uncertainty of achieving a net real yield in excess of 3 percent on IA assets 

will cause some to pass on the option. On balance, we assume that about two thirds of the 

potential IA contributions for eligible workers will be realized through worker elections. 

The ultimate average real yield on corporate bonds is assumed to be 3.5 percent, or 0.5 

percentage point above the Trustees intermediate assumption for long-tern Treasury bonds. In 

addition, the long-term ultimate average annual real yield assumed for equities is 6.5 percent. 

This is somewhat lower than the historical real equity yield over the last several decades. 

A consensus appears to have formed among economists that equity pricing, as indicated by 

price-to-earnings ratios, may average somewhat higher in the long-term future than in the 

long-term past. This is consistent with broader access to equity markets and the belief that 

equities may be viewed as somewhat less “risky” in the future than in the past. Equity pricing 

will vary in the future as in the past. Price-to-earnings ratios were very high through 1999, 

and are now lower. The lower-than-historical average ultimate real yield assumed for equities 

purchased in future years is consistent with an average ultimate level of equity pricing 

somewhat above the average level of the past. 

The assumption for an ultimate real equity yield of 7 percent that was used by the Office of 

the Chief Actuary until 2001 was developed in 1995 with the 1994-96 Advisory Council. At 

that time, the Trustees assumption for the ultimate average real yield on long-term Treasury 

bonds was 2.3 percent. Real yields on corporate bonds are believed to bear a close 

relationship to Treasury bond yields of similar duration. The 2004 Trustees Report includes 

the assumption that the ultimate real yield on long-term Treasury bonds will average 3 

percent, or 0.7 percentage point higher than assumed in 1995. This increase in the assumed 
6

bond yield is consistent with a reduction in the perceived risk associated with equity 

investments. 

It should be noted that the precise effects of implementing a plan that would result in a 

significant demand for equities and corporate bonds on the yields of these securities is not 

clear. This demand would likely be at least partially offset by reductions in demand for other 

investment mechanisms. For the purpose of these estimates, it is assumed that there will be 

no net dynamic feedback effects on the economy or on the financial markets. 

Financial Effects of the Plan 

Trust Fund Operations 

Table 1 indicates that under the intermediate assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report and the 

assumed average yields for equities and corporate bonds described above, the OASDI 

program is projected to be solvent throughout the 75-year projection period and to satisfy the 

criteria for sustainable solvency (stable or rising TFR at the end of 75 years). The annual cost 

rate (cost of the OASDI program as a percent of payroll) is expected to decline steadily after 

2033, reflecting the increasing extent of benefit reductions due to the basic benefit formula 

modification and offsets associated with IA participation. The annual balance (net cash-flow 

balance as a percent of payroll) is projected to reach zero at the end of the period, and to be 

positive thereafter. The TFR is projected to be stabilized at 100 percent of annual cost 

between 2031 and 2074 through General Fund transfers. Thereafter, the TFR is projected to 

rise slowly. 

Net General Fund transfers, expressed as a percent of taxable payroll, are projected to rise to a 

peak of 3.70 percent for 2032 and decline thereafter, reaching zero for 2073 and later. The 

“effective” OASDI contribution rate is projected to be reduced from the nominal level of 12.4 

percent by the amount redirected to personal accounts but increased temporarily by General 

Revenue transfers. Aggregate IA contributions are projected to reach 1.33 percent of taxable 

payroll for 2021 through 2050, and to decline slowly thereafter due to the CPI-indexed limit 

on annual IA contributions. The effective IA contribution rate (the expected aggregate 

amount of IA contributions in a year as a percentage of total taxable earnings for the year) is 

projected to decline to 1.24 percentage points for 2078. 

The actuarial deficit for the OASDI program over the 75-year projection period would be 

improved by an estimated 1.89 percent of taxable payroll, from an actuarial deficit of 1.89 

percent of payroll projected under current law to a positive actuarial balance that rounds to 

0.01 percent of payroll under the plan. 

Program Transfers and Assets 

Table 1a provides an analysis of General Fund net transfers under the plan and of net OASDI 

Trust Fund and individual account assets. Columns 1 through 3 provide the estimated 

amounts of annual transfers to maintain a 100 percent TFR under the mechanism described 

above. Column 4 provides the cumulative total amount of these transfers from the General 
7

Fund of the Treasury through the end of each year. Under the plan, transfers from the General 

Fund would not be expected to be required until 2030; and the total expected transfers needed 

between 2030 and 2078 are $1.90 trillion in present value. As seen in table 1d, column 7, this 

leads to a trust fund level of $0.2 trillion at the end of 2078. 

Total projected OASDI Trust Fund assets are shown in column 5. For purpose of comparison, 

the net OASDI Trust Fund assets are also shown for a theoretical Social Security program 

where borrowing authority is assumed for the Trust Funds. The theoretical Social Security 

program with borrowing authority is presented both without and with the net General Fund 

transfers expected under this plan, in columns 8 and 9, respectively. Column 1 of table 1d 

shows that transfers or borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury required to finance 

currently scheduled benefits through 2078 would total $3.70 trillion in present value, and this 

would leave the cash holdings of the trust fund at zero at the end of 2078. Thus, to achieve 

the same 2078 trust fund level as for the proposal and to pay the scheduled benefits in full 

$3.9 trillion in transfers would be needed, or $2.0 trillion more than the transfers needed 

under the proposed plan. As is also shown in table 1d, this difference is explained by two 

partially offsetting factors. First, currently scheduled benefits would be greater for medium 

and high earners than in the proposal by about $2.91 trillion in present value through 2078. 

Second, the proposal would be expected to result in about $0.91 trillion more in IA 

contributions than it would save in benefit offsets through 2078, as a substantial portion of the 

offsets based on IA contributions through 2078 would occur after that period. 

If the individual accounts are considered as a part of a “total system”, along with the OASDI 

program, then it is reasonable to consider “total system assets”. These would be the sum of 

net OASDI trust fund assets and IA assets (columns 5 and 6). Under the intermediate 

assumptions and assuming full annuitization of IA assets, total system assets are expected to 

be large and growing in real terms at the end of the 75-year projection period. 

Effect on the Federal Unified Budget 

Table 1b (present value dollars) and table 1b.c (constant dollars) provide estimates of the 

effect on federal unified budget cash flows and balances under this plan and these 

assumptions. All values in this table represent the amount of the change that would be 

expected as a result of implementing the proposal, from the level that would be projected 

under current law. The effect of the plan on unified budget cash flow (column 4) would be 

expected to be negative initially, but positive starting 2032. This total cash flow change is the 

combination of the specific plan effects shown in columns 1-3. It is important to note that 

these estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report and 

thus are not consistent with estimates made by the OMB or the CBO based of their 

assumptions. 

The fifth column provides the projected effect of implementing the plan on the Federal debt 

held by the public. The final column provides the projected effect on the annual unified 

budget balances, including both the cash flow effect in column 4 and the additional interest on 

the accumulated debt. 
8

Cash Flow to the General Fund of the Treasury 

Table 1c provides estimates of the net cash flow from the OASDI Trust Funds to the General 

Fund of the Treasury. Revenue paid by the Treasury to the trust funds for the redemption of 

the special-issue Treasury obligations held by the trust funds is included here as a negative 

cash flow to the General Fund. Specified transfers from the General Fund under the plan also 

are shown as negative cash flow. 

Values in Table 1c are shown as a percent of taxable payroll, in current dollars, in present 

value dollars as of 1/1/2004, and in constant 2004 dollars (discounted to 2004 with the 

projected growth in the CPI). For comparison purposes, net cash flow is also shown for a 

theoretical Social Security program where transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury to 

the OASDI Trust Funds are assumed to occur as needed to assure full payment of scheduled 

benefits in 2042 and later. 

Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Assets/Unfunded Obligation 

Table 1d provides estimates of the amount of assets in the combined OASI and DI 

Trust Funds at the end of each year, in present discounted value. Negative values do 

not indicate levels of trust fund assets as the program does not have borrowing 

authority. Instead, negative values reflect the magnitude of the unfunded obligation 

of the program through the end of the year. The first column presents these 

estimates under present law, where the unfunded obligation is $3.7 trillion through 

2078, the end of the 75-year long-range period. 

Columns 2 through 5 show the annual effects of the components of the proposal that 

move the OASDI program to elimination of the unfunded obligation. These include 

the basic OASDI changes (the change in the benefit formula plus the net change in 

taxation of benefits and on IA distributions), IA contributions redirected from the 

trust funds to the IAs, offsets against OASI benefits due to IA participation, and the 

General Fund transfers needed to maintain solvency in 2029 through 2071. It may 

be noted that due to the provisions of this proposal, the amount of benefit offsets due 

to IA participation in column 4 will tend to be nearly as large as the amount of IA 

contributions in column 3 over the entire lifetime of each birth year cohort . 

The combination of the annual effects in columns 2 through 5 is accumulated in 

column 6, showing effect on projected trust fund assets, or on the unfunded 

obligation, through the end of each year. Column 7 shows the resulting trust fund 

asset levels projected under the proposal. The overall effect of the proposal is to 

transform the projected $3.7 trillion long-range unfunded obligation for the program 

under current law into an expected positive trust fund balance of $ 0.2 trillion at the 

end of the period. 
9

Estimates with Low or Risk-Adjusted Yields on Assets 

Tables 2, 2a, 2b, 2c, and 2d provide an analysis of the implications of realizing actual real 

yields on individual account assets that are equal to the assumed average real yield on longterm Treasury bonds, or 3 percent. This may be viewed as either illustrating the case where 

the average real yield on equities and corporate bonds is no higher than on government bonds, 

or illustrating the effect of assuming “risk-adjusted” returns on equities and corporate bonds. 

In either case, the “expected” yield on annuitized assets is assumed to match the actual yield, 

on average. 

The historically higher returns on equities and corporate bonds than on Treasury bonds is 

associated with the relatively higher degree of variability in the returns on these assets. One 

way of accounting for the combination of this increased variability and the associated higher 

expected return that is demanded in the markets is to portray the returns of the more variable 

assets as being the same as the relatively low-yield asset, Treasury bonds. Tables 2 serve this 

purpose. It should also be noted that while average real yields for equities have been at or 

below average bond yields for periods of a decade or so, the likelihood of having such a low 

average yield for a period of several decades seems extremely low. 

Differences between Tables 1 and 2 are small because the only effect on the solvency of the 

trust funds due to variation in IA investment yields comes from the relatively small changes in 

income taxes paid on the IA distributions. 

Estimated Benefit Levels under the Plan 

Values in Tables B1 and B2 all reflect expected monthly amounts as a percentage of the 

scheduled OASDI benefits under current law. For the purpose of this analysis, individuals 

participating in the IA option are assumed to work until reaching age 65 and then to take the 

full-annuitization option for their IA accumulation. 

For these hypothetical cases, earnings and IA contributions are assumed to begin at age 21 (22 

for steady maximum workers), or in the year 2007 if later. IA contributions are assumed to be 

based on each worker’s earnings that are taxable under the OASDI program. IA contributions 

apply only for individuals 54 or younger at the beginning of 2005, so those reaching age 65 in 

2015 and later are eligible to participate. All annuities for married couples are assumed to be 

joint, with the survivor receiving two thirds of the monthly payment that is provided while 

both spouses are alive. 

Four illustrative earnings levels are included. The “scaled” low, medium, and high earners 

have earnings patterns that reflect the relative probability of work and relative level of 

earnings by age during the period 1988-97. The absolute level of earnings in each case was 

set so that the Social Security PIA would be equal to that for a “steady” earner with low, 

average, and high earnings, respectively, in each year prior to retirement. For the steady 

average earner, the earnings level is the SSA average wage index (AWI) level for each year. 

For the steady low earner, earnings at 45 percent of the AWI are assumed. For the steady high 

earner, earnings at 160 percent of the AWI are assumed. The steady maximum worker is 
10

assumed to have earnings equal to the SSA taxable maximum each year prior to retirement. 

While these cases are hypothetical, the PIA for the medium (or steady average) earner is close 

to the median PIA for retired worker beneficiaries. See Social Security Administration 

Actuarial Note Number 144 for a full description of these hypothetical cases. 

The tables provide illustrative benefit and offset estimates for three types of marital status at 

retirement. The single worker, the married couple with one earner at the indicated level and 

the other spouse not working in paid employment, and the married couple both of whom had 

career earnings at the indicated level. Spouses are assumed to be at the same age. 

Table B1 shows four columns for each marital status. The first column shows the level of the 

intended offset under the proposal for those participating in the IA option. The second and 

third columns show the level of the potential IA annuity for IA participants under both 

low/risk-adjusted returns described above and for the expected IA return with the required 

portfolio. The fourth column shows the level of the OASDI benefit before application of the 

offset. This basic level of benefit is the full benefit provided for individuals not participating 

in the IA and for disabled worker beneficiaries (who do not receive IA distributions until after 

reaching their normal retirement age and converting to retirement status). 

Table B2 provides three columns for each marital status. The first column repeats the basic 

OASDI benefit level without the offset. This column illustrates the effect of the progressive 

benefit formula under the proposal. Benefits for the scaled low earner are not affected as this 

earnings level is at about the 28th percentile of career earnings levels. Workers with higher 

earnings show progressively greater benefit reductions relative to current-law scheduled 

benefits. Of course it is important to remember that the level of benefits that is expected to be 

payable under current law is lower than the scheduled level starting in 2042, and is expected 

to reach about 68 percent of the scheduled level by 2078 if no action is taken to improve 

program financing. 

The second column in Table B2 shows the estimated total benefit level (Social Security 

benefit plus the IA annuity, less the benefit offset) for retirement cases where the IA option 

was selected and the IA achieved a low yield, or the yield is shown on a risk-adjusted basis. 

The third column shows the estimated total benefit level assuming the expected yield on IA 

assets is achieved. 

 

 Stephen C. Goss 

Attachments 
Table 1 Pozen Proposal: PIA start 2012: IA 2%to $3K start 2007 <55 on 1-1-05

Base IA Cont Rate: 2.0% to $3,000 (CPI Indexed) Benefit Offset: 100.0%

Tax IA like benefits Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield Rate of 3.00 Assumed Participation in Voluntary IA: 66.7%

General Revenue Benefit Offset Real Yield Rate Set at 3.00 "Effective"

Transfers Benefit Offset Real Discount Rate Set at 3.00 Change "Effective" General "Effective"

As Needed in OASDI OASDI Revenue IA

Cost Income Annual TFR Contribution Contribution Transfer Contribution

Year Rate1 Rate Balance 1-1-yr Rate Rate2 Solvency Rate

2004 11.07 12.71 1.64 306 Assess 12.40 0.00

2005 10.87 12.73 1.86 325 IA for 3% 12.40 0.00

2006 10.77 12.73 1.97 347 accumulation 12.40 0.00

2007 10.75 11.57 0.82 367 at early -1.180 11.22 1.18

2008 10.80 11.59 0.79 374 death -0.021 11.20 1.20

2009 10.95 11.56 0.61 378 -0.019 11.18 1.22

2010 11.08 11.56 0.48 381 -0.018 11.16 1.24

2011 11.25 11.60 0.35 383 -0.017 11.14 1.26

2012 11.48 11.61 0.13 382 -0.015 11.13 1.27

2013 11.74 11.63 -0.11 379 -0.012 11.12 1.28

2014 11.97 11.63 -0.34 375 -0.010 11.11 1.29

2015 12.23 11.64 -0.59 368 -0.008 11.10 1.30

2016 12.51 11.65 -0.86 360 -0.007 11.09 1.31

2017 12.79 11.67 -1.12 350 -0.005 11.09 1.31

2018 13.07 11.68 -1.39 339 -0.004 11.08 1.32

2019 13.36 11.70 -1.67 326 -0.004 11.08 1.32

2020 13.66 11.71 -1.95 312 -0.003 11.08 1.32

2021 13.94 11.73 -2.21 296 -0.003 11.07 1.33

2022 14.20 11.74 -2.46 280 -0.002 11.07 1.33

2023 14.46 11.75 -2.71 263 -0.002 11.07 1.33

2024 14.70 11.77 -2.93 244 -0.002 11.07 1.33

2025 14.92 11.78 -3.14 225 0.000 11.07 1.33

2026 15.13 11.80 -3.33 205 0.000 11.07 1.33

2027 15.30 11.81 -3.49 185 0.000 11.07 1.33

2028 15.45 11.82 -3.63 164 0.000 11.07 1.33

2029 15.57 11.83 -3.74 142 0.000 11.07 1.33

2030 15.66 12.34 -3.32 120 0.500 11.57 0.5 1.33

2031 15.73 15.45 -0.28 100 3.100 14.67 3.6 1.33

2032 15.77 15.56 -0.21 100 0.100 14.77 3.7 1.33

2033 15.78 15.57 -0.22 100 0.000 14.77 3.7 1.33

2034 15.76 15.47 -0.29 100 -0.100 14.67 3.6 1.33

2035 15.72 15.37 -0.34 100 -0.100 14.57 3.5 1.33

2036 15.64 15.37 -0.27 100 0.000 14.57 3.5 1.33

2037 15.55 15.17 -0.38 100 -0.200 14.37 3.3 1.33

2038 15.44 15.07 -0.36 100 -0.100 14.27 3.2 1.33

2039 15.31 14.97 -0.34 100 -0.100 14.17 3.1 1.33

2040 15.18 14.77 -0.41 100 -0.200 13.97 2.9 1.33

2041 15.05 14.67 -0.38 100 -0.100 13.87 2.8 1.33

2042 14.92 14.57 -0.35 100 -0.100 13.77 2.7 1.33

2043 14.78 14.47 -0.31 100 -0.100 13.67 2.6 1.33

2044 14.64 14.27 -0.37 100 -0.200 13.47 2.4 1.33

2045 14.50 14.06 -0.43 100 -0.200 13.27 2.2 1.33

2046 14.36 14.06 -0.30 100 0.000 13.27 2.2 1.33

2047 14.22 13.86 -0.36 100 -0.200 13.07 2.0 1.33

2048 14.09 13.66 -0.43 100 -0.198 12.87 1.8 1.33

2049 13.96 13.66 -0.29 100 0.002 12.87 1.8 1.33

2050 13.83 13.47 -0.36 100 -0.198 12.67 1.6 1.33

2051 13.71 13.37 -0.34 100 -0.098 12.58 1.5 1.32

2052 13.60 13.27 -0.33 100 -0.098 12.48 1.4 1.32

2053 13.51 13.18 -0.33 100 -0.098 12.38 1.3 1.32

2054 13.41 13.08 -0.34 100 -0.098 12.28 1.2 1.32

2055 13.33 13.08 -0.25 100 0.002 12.28 1.2 1.32

2056 13.25 12.89 -0.36 100 -0.198 12.09 1.0 1.31

2057 13.17 12.89 -0.28 100 0.002 12.09 1.0 1.31

2058 13.09 12.89 -0.20 100 0.003 12.09 1.0 1.31

2059 13.01 12.70 -0.32 100 -0.197 11.90 0.8 1.30

2060 12.94 12.60 -0.34 100 -0.097 11.80 0.7 1.30

2061 12.87 12.61 -0.26 100 0.003 11.80 0.7 1.30

2062 12.80 12.61 -0.20 100 0.003 11.80 0.7 1.30

2063 12.75 12.41 -0.33 100 -0.197 11.61 0.5 1.29

2064 12.69 12.42 -0.27 100 0.003 11.61 0.5 1.29

2065 12.63 12.42 -0.21 100 0.003 11.61 0.5 1.29

2066 12.57 12.32 -0.24 100 -0.097 11.52 0.4 1.28

2067 12.51 12.23 -0.29 100 -0.097 11.42 0.3 1.28

2068 12.46 12.23 -0.23 100 0.003 11.42 0.3 1.28

2069 12.40 12.14 -0.27 100 -0.097 11.33 0.2 1.27

2070 12.35 12.04 -0.31 100 -0.097 11.23 0.1 1.27

2071 12.29 12.04 -0.25 100 0.003 11.23 0.1 1.27

2072 12.24 12.04 -0.20 100 0.003 11.24 0.1 1.26

2073 12.19 11.95 -0.24 100 -0.097 11.14 1.26

2074 12.14 11.95 -0.19 100 0.003 11.14 1.26

2075 12.10 11.95 -0.15 101 0.003 11.15 1.25

2076 12.06 11.96 -0.10 102 0.003 11.15 1.25

2077 12.02 11.96 -0.06 103 0.003 11.15 1.25

2078 11.97 11.96 -0.01 104 0.004 11.16 1.24

2079 11.94 11.96 0.03 106 0.004 11.16 1.24

Summarized OASDI

Actuarial Change in 

Cost Rate Income Rate Balance Actuarial Balance Office of the Actuary

2004 - 2078 13.46 13.46 0.01 1.89 Social Security 1 Net of Benefit Offset February 7, 2005 2

 Including General Revenue Transfer Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report With Ultimate Real Trust Fund Interest Rate of 3.00
Table 1a Proposal GF Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Assets, Individual Account Assets, and Theoretical OASDI Assets

Expected Theoretical Social Security 2

Proposal General Fund Transfers Total OASDI Individual with Borrowing Authority

Accumulated Trust Fund Account Net OASDI TF Assets End of Year

Present Value Percent of Annual as of Assets Assets 1 Without GF With GF Transfer

as of 1-1-2004 Tax Payroll Transfers End of Year at End of Year at End of Year GDP Transfer (amount for Prop)

Calendar (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

Year Billions Billions of Constant 2004$ Billions of Constant 2004 Dollars

2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1,684 0 11,544 1,684 1,684

2005 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1,840 0 11,911 1,840 1,840

2006 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1,998 0 12,246 1,998 1,998

2007 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,096 59 12,562 2,156 2,156

2008 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,192 122 12,870 2,315 2,315

2009 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,281 190 13,171 2,473 2,473

2010 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,367 264 13,466 2,631 2,631

2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,450 342 13,752 2,790 2,790

2012 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,525 426 14,024 2,944 2,944

2013 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,588 514 14,285 3,091 3,091

2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,641 607 14,547 3,230 3,230

2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,681 705 14,804 3,360 3,360

2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,708 809 15,061 3,478 3,478

2017 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,719 918 15,322 3,584 3,584

2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,714 1,032 15,586 3,675 3,675

2019 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,691 1,151 15,842 3,750 3,750

2020 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,648 1,276 16,100 3,805 3,805

2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,584 1,405 16,354 3,841 3,841

2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,501 1,540 16,610 3,857 3,857

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,397 1,679 16,861 3,851 3,851

2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,272 1,824 17,117 3,823 3,823

2025 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,127 1,974 17,372 3,773 3,773

2026 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1,962 2,128 17,634 3,700 3,700

2027 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1,777 2,287 17,903 3,604 3,604

2028 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1,574 2,451 18,174 3,486 3,486

2029 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1,354 2,620 18,451 3,346 3,346

2030 16.0 0.5 35.1 35 1,154 2,793 18,733 3,184 3,219

2031 113.4 3.6 256.4 293 1,167 2,971 19,022 3,000 3,293

2032 114.7 3.7 267.1 568 1,186 3,153 19,319 2,796 3,364

2033 112.9 3.7 270.8 856 1,204 3,339 19,622 2,570 3,427

2034 108.1 3.6 267.1 1,149 1,217 3,529 19,929 2,325 3,474

2035 103.5 3.5 263.3 1,447 1,226 3,723 20,243 2,062 3,508

2036 101.9 3.5 267.0 1,757 1,241 3,921 20,564 1,780 3,537

2037 94.6 3.3 255.3 2,065 1,247 4,122 20,892 1,481 3,546

2038 90.3 3.2 251.1 2,378 1,254 4,327 21,226 1,165 3,543

2039 86.1 3.1 246.7 2,696 1,263 4,534 21,562 833 3,530

2040 79.3 2.9 234.0 3,011 1,266 4,744 21,904 485 3,496

2041 75.4 2.8 229.1 3,331 1,271 4,956 22,252 120 3,451

2042 71.6 2.7 224.0 3,655 1,279 5,170 22,605 -262 3,392

2043 67.8 2.6 218.7 3,983 1,289 5,386 22,961 -662 3,321

2044 61.7 2.4 204.7 4,307 1,294 5,602 23,322 -1,080 3,227

2045 55.6 2.2 190.3 4,627 1,294 5,819 23,687 -1,516 3,110

2046 54.7 2.2 192.9 4,958 1,305 6,036 24,055 -1,972 2,986

2047 49.0 2.0 177.7 5,285 1,310 6,252 24,426 -2,449 2,836

2048 43.4 1.8 162.1 5,605 1,309 6,467 24,799 -2,946 2,660

2049 42.7 1.8 164.2 5,938 1,320 6,681 25,174 -3,465 2,472

2050 37.3 1.6 147.9 6,264 1,324 6,891 25,552 -4,008 2,255

2051 34.4 1.5 140.5 6,592 1,330 7,098 25,936 -4,577 2,016

2052 31.6 1.4 132.8 6,923 1,337 7,302 26,324 -5,172 1,751

2053 28.8 1.3 125.0 7,255 1,343 7,503 26,721 -5,795 1,461

2054 26.2 1.2 116.9 7,590 1,349 7,702 27,123 -6,447 1,143

2055 25.8 1.2 118.4 7,936 1,363 7,898 27,528 -7,130 806

2056 21.1 1.0 100.0 8,274 1,366 8,091 27,939 -7,845 429

2057 20.8 1.0 101.3 8,624 1,377 8,281 28,354 -8,594 30

2058 20.4 1.0 102.6 8,985 1,396 8,468 28,775 -9,378 -393

2059 16.1 0.8 83.1 9,338 1,403 8,652 29,204 -10,196 -859

2060 13.8 0.7 73.7 9,691 1,408 8,832 29,639 -11,052 -1,360

2061 13.6 0.7 74.6 10,057 1,420 9,009 30,078 -11,946 -1,889

2062 13.4 0.7 75.6 10,434 1,440 9,183 30,526 -12,880 -2,446

2063 9.4 0.5 54.7 10,802 1,444 9,353 30,978 -13,857 -3,055

2064 9.2 0.5 55.4 11,181 1,455 9,519 31,438 -14,876 -3,695

2065 9.1 0.5 56.1 11,573 1,474 9,682 31,906 -15,940 -4,367

2066 7.1 0.4 45.5 11,966 1,489 9,850 32,379 -17,050 -5,085

2067 5.3 0.3 34.6 12,359 1,498 10,015 32,861 -18,208 -5,848

2068 5.2 0.3 35.0 12,765 1,515 10,177 33,359 -19,414 -6,649

2069 3.4 0.2 23.6 13,171 1,527 10,337 33,859 -20,670 -7,499

2070 1.7 0.1 12.0 13,579 1,533 10,494 34,366 -21,978 -8,400

2071 1.6 0.1 12.1 13,998 1,547 10,648 34,882 -23,340 -9,341

2072 1.6 0.1 12.3 14,430 1,567 10,800 35,404 -24,756 -10,326

2073 0.0 0.0 0.0 14,863 1,582 10,950 35,931 -26,230 -11,366

2074 0.0 0.0 0.0 15,309 1,603 11,099 36,464 -27,762 -12,453

2075 0.0 0.0 0.0 15,768 1,630 11,246 37,006 -29,356 -13,588

2076 0.0 0.0 0.0 16,241 1,664 11,391 37,555 -31,014 -14,772

2077 0.0 0.0 0.0 16,729 1,705 11,535 38,112 -32,736 -16,008

2078 0.0 0.0 0.0 17,231 1,753 11,678 38,677 -34,527 -17,296

2079 0.0 0.0 0.0 17,747 1,809 11,820 39,245 -36,387 -18,639

Total 1,899.4

Office of the Actuary 1

 Including annuity assets, assuming all annuitize fully. Social Security Administration 2

 Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption

 that the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury. Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report

February 7, 2005

Annual Transfers
Table 1b IA Contributions, IA Offset, Other Changes, & Budget Effect

Base Individual Account Contribution Rate: 2.0% Benefit Offset: 100.0%

Amount(%) Other Change in 

Contributed to Offset to Changes Annual Debt Held Annual 

IA by Fed Gov: OASDI Ben in OASDI Unified Budget by Public Unified Budget

100 From IA Cash flow Cashflow (EOY) Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4)=(3)+(2)-(1) (6) (7)

Year (Billions of $, Present Value on 1-1-2004)

2005 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2006 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2007 51.3 0.0 0.0 -51.3 52.7 -52.7

2008 52.0 0.0 0.0 -52.0 106.1 -56.1

2009 52.5 0.0 0.0 -52.5 160.0 -59.5

2010 52.9 0.0 0.0 -52.9 214.4 -62.8

2011 53.1 0.0 0.0 -53.1 269.0 -66.0

2012 53.2 0.3 0.1 -52.7 323.2 -68.6

2013 53.0 0.7 0.3 -52.0 376.7 -70.8

2014 52.8 1.1 0.7 -51.0 429.2 -72.8

2015 52.5 1.6 1.2 -49.8 480.5 -74.6

2016 52.1 2.1 1.8 -48.3 530.3 -76.0

2017 51.6 2.7 2.5 -46.5 578.2 -77.1

2018 51.1 3.3 3.3 -44.5 624.1 -77.9

2019 50.5 3.9 4.3 -42.2 667.5 -78.1

2020 49.8 4.6 5.4 -39.8 708.4 -78.0

2021 49.2 5.4 6.6 -37.1 746.6 -77.6

2022 48.5 6.2 8.0 -34.3 781.9 -76.8

2023 47.8 7.0 9.5 -31.3 814.1 -75.6

2024 47.1 7.9 11.1 -28.1 843.0 -74.2

2025 46.3 8.8 12.8 -24.7 868.4 -72.3

2026 45.5 9.7 14.6 -21.2 890.3 -70.1

2027 44.8 10.7 16.5 -17.6 908.4 -67.6

2028 44.1 11.7 18.5 -13.9 922.7 -64.8

2029 43.4 12.7 20.6 -10.1 933.2 -61.7

2030 42.7 13.7 22.7 -6.3 939.7 -58.3

2031 42.0 14.7 24.9 -2.4 942.1 -54.7

2032 41.3 15.8 27.1 1.6 940.5 -50.7

2033 40.7 16.9 29.4 5.6 934.7 -46.5

2034 40.0 18.0 31.7 9.6 924.9 -42.1

2035 39.4 19.1 34.0 13.6 910.9 -37.4

2036 38.8 20.2 36.3 17.6 892.7 -32.5

2037 38.2 21.3 38.4 21.5 870.6 -27.5

2038 37.6 22.4 40.5 25.2 844.7 -22.4

2039 37.0 23.5 42.4 28.8 815.0 -17.3

2040 36.5 24.6 44.2 32.3 781.7 -12.0

2041 35.9 25.6 46.0 35.7 745.0 -6.7

2042 35.3 26.7 47.6 39.0 704.8 -1.3

2043 34.8 27.8 49.2 42.2 661.4 4.2

2044 34.3 28.9 50.7 45.3 614.9 9.8

2045 33.7 29.9 52.0 48.2 565.2 15.5

2046 33.2 30.9 53.4 51.1 512.6 21.2

2047 32.6 32.0 54.6 53.9 457.1 27.0

2048 32.1 32.9 55.8 56.6 398.8 32.9

2049 31.5 33.8 56.9 59.2 337.9 38.8

2050 30.9 34.9 58.0 61.9 274.2 44.9

2051 30.4 35.8 59.0 64.4 207.9 51.0

2052 29.8 36.6 60.0 66.7 139.2 57.1

2053 29.3 37.1 60.9 68.8 68.5 63.0

2054 28.8 37.6 61.8 70.7 -4.3 68.9

2055 28.2 38.1 62.7 72.5 -78.9 74.9

2056 27.7 38.5 63.5 74.2 -155.3 80.7

2057 27.2 38.8 64.2 75.8 -233.2 86.6

2058 26.7 39.0 64.9 77.2 -312.7 92.4

2059 26.2 39.2 65.6 78.6 -393.5 98.2

2060 25.7 39.3 66.2 79.8 -475.6 103.9

2061 25.2 39.4 66.7 80.9 -558.8 109.7

2062 24.8 39.4 67.2 81.9 -643.1 115.3

2063 24.3 39.4 67.7 82.8 -728.4 121.0

2064 23.8 39.3 68.2 83.7 -814.4 126.6

2065 23.4 39.2 68.6 84.4 -901.2 132.1

2066 22.9 39.0 68.9 85.0 -988.7 137.5

2067 22.5 38.8 69.2 85.5 -1,076.6 142.9

2068 22.1 38.5 69.5 85.9 -1,165.0 148.3

2069 21.7 38.2 69.7 86.3 -1,253.8 153.5

2070 21.2 37.9 69.9 86.5 -1,342.9 158.7

2071 20.8 37.5 70.0 86.7 -1,432.1 163.9

2072 20.4 37.2 70.1 86.8 -1,521.5 168.9

2073 20.0 36.7 70.2 86.9 -1,610.9 174.0

2074 19.7 36.3 70.2 86.9 -1,700.3 178.9

2075 19.3 35.9 70.3 86.8 -1,789.7 183.8

2076 18.9 35.4 70.3 86.7 -1,878.9 188.7

2077 18.5 34.9 70.2 86.6 -1,968.0 193.5

2078 18.2 34.4 70.2 86.4 -2,056.9 198.2

2079 17.8 33.9 70.1 86.2 -2,145.5 203.0

 Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report

 With Ultimate Real Trust Fund Interest Rate of 3.0% Office of the Actuary

Benefit Offset Real Yield Rate Set at 3.0% Social Security Administration

Benefit Offset Real Discount Rate Set at 3.0% February 7, 2005
Table 1b.c IA Contributions, IA Offset, Other Changes, & Budget Effect

Base Individual Account Contribution Rate: 2.0% Benefit Offset: 100.0%

Amount(%) Other Change in 

Contributed to Offset to Changes Annual Debt Held Annual 

IA by Fed Gov: OASDI Ben in OASDI Unified Budget by Public Unified Budget

100 From IA Cash flow Cashflow (EOY) Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4)=(3)+(2)-(1) (6) (7)

Year (Billions of Constant 2004 $)

2005 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2006 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2007 58.4 0.0 0.0 -58.4 59.1 -60.0

2008 60.7 0.0 0.0 -60.7 122.1 -65.5

2009 62.9 0.0 0.0 -62.9 189.1 -71.3

2010 65.1 0.0 0.0 -65.1 260.1 -77.3

2011 67.1 0.0 0.0 -67.1 335.3 -83.4

2012 69.0 0.4 0.1 -68.5 414.1 -89.1

2013 70.7 0.9 0.5 -69.4 495.9 -94.5

2014 72.5 1.5 0.9 -70.0 581.0 -100.0

2015 74.1 2.2 1.6 -70.3 669.0 -105.3

2016 75.7 3.0 2.5 -70.1 759.7 -110.4

2017 77.2 4.0 3.7 -69.5 852.7 -115.3

2018 78.6 5.0 5.1 -68.5 947.8 -120.0

2019 80.0 6.3 6.8 -67.0 1,044.2 -123.9

2020 81.4 7.6 8.8 -65.0 1,141.4 -127.4

2021 82.7 9.1 11.2 -62.4 1,239.0 -130.5

2022 84.0 10.7 13.9 -59.4 1,336.5 -133.0

2023 85.3 12.5 16.9 -55.8 1,433.2 -135.0

2024 86.5 14.5 20.4 -51.7 1,528.6 -136.3

2025 87.7 16.6 24.2 -46.8 1,622.0 -136.9

2026 88.8 18.9 28.5 -41.4 1,712.7 -136.7

2027 90.0 21.4 33.2 -35.4 1,800.0 -135.8

2028 91.2 24.1 38.3 -28.8 1,883.3 -134.1

2029 92.4 27.0 43.8 -21.6 1,961.7 -131.5

2030 93.7 30.1 49.8 -13.8 2,034.6 -128.1

2031 94.9 33.3 56.2 -5.4 2,101.1 -123.6

2032 96.2 36.8 63.1 3.7 2,160.4 -118.1

2033 97.6 40.5 70.5 13.4 2,211.6 -111.6

2034 98.9 44.4 78.2 23.7 2,253.9 -104.0

2035 100.3 48.5 86.4 34.6 2,286.4 -95.2

2036 101.7 52.8 95.0 46.2 2,308.1 -85.2

2037 103.2 57.4 103.8 58.0 2,318.5 -74.2

2038 104.6 62.2 112.6 70.2 2,316.9 -62.4

2039 106.1 67.2 121.5 82.6 2,302.5 -49.5

2040 107.6 72.4 130.5 95.4 2,274.8 -35.5

2041 109.1 77.9 139.7 108.5 2,232.9 -20.3

2042 110.6 83.7 149.1 122.1 2,175.9 -3.9

2043 112.2 89.6 158.6 136.0 2,103.2 13.7

2044 113.7 95.8 168.2 150.3 2,013.7 32.6

2045 115.3 102.3 178.0 165.0 1,906.7 52.9

2046 116.9 109.0 188.0 180.1 1,781.1 74.7

2047 118.5 116.0 198.2 195.7 1,635.9 98.0

2048 119.9 123.0 208.5 211.6 1,470.2 122.8

2049 121.2 130.3 219.0 228.1 1,282.9 149.3

2050 122.6 138.3 229.8 245.5 1,072.2 178.2

2051 124.0 146.2 240.9 263.0 837.4 208.4

2052 125.4 153.8 252.3 280.7 577.7 240.2

2053 126.9 160.9 264.0 298.0 292.6 273.1

2054 128.3 168.0 275.9 315.5 -18.9 307.7

2055 129.8 175.1 288.1 333.3 -357.7 344.1

2056 131.3 182.1 300.5 351.3 -725.0 382.3

2057 132.7 189.0 313.2 369.5 -1,121.8 422.3

2058 134.2 196.0 326.1 387.9 -1,549.1 464.3

2059 135.6 202.8 339.2 406.4 -2,008.0 508.1

2060 137.0 209.6 352.5 425.1 -2,499.7 553.9

2061 138.5 216.3 366.1 443.9 -3,025.2 601.8

2062 139.9 222.8 380.1 463.0 -3,585.8 652.0

2063 141.4 229.3 394.4 482.3 -4,182.9 704.4

2064 142.9 235.7 408.9 501.7 -4,817.6 759.0

2065 144.4 242.0 423.5 521.1 -5,491.0 815.8

2066 145.9 248.1 438.4 540.6 -6,204.3 875.0

2067 147.5 254.1 453.6 560.3 -6,959.1 936.6

2068 149.0 260.0 469.1 580.1 -7,756.6 1,000.7

2069 150.6 265.8 484.7 599.9 -8,598.1 1,067.4

2070 152.1 271.4 500.5 619.7 -9,485.0 1,136.7

2071 153.7 276.9 516.5 639.7 -10,418.8 1,208.7

2072 155.3 282.3 532.8 659.8 -11,400.9 1,283.6

2073 156.9 287.5 549.4 680.0 -12,433.1 1,361.4

2074 158.5 292.6 566.2 700.4 -13,516.9 1,442.2

2075 160.1 297.7 583.3 720.9 -14,654.0 1,526.2

2076 161.7 302.6 600.7 741.6 -15,846.3 1,613.5

2077 163.4 307.4 618.4 762.4 -17,095.4 1,704.1

2078 165.0 312.1 636.5 783.6 -18,403.6 1,798.4

2079 166.6 316.8 654.9 805.1 -19,772.8 1,896.5

 Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report

 With Ultimate Real Trust Fund Interest Rate of 3.0% Office of the Actuary

Benefit Offset Real Yield Rate Set at 3.0% Social Security Administration

Benefit Offset Real Discount Rate Set at 3.0% February 7, 2005
Table 1c OASDI Cash Flow to General Fund of the Treasury--- Proposal vs. Theoretical OASDI

Proposal Theoretical Social Security with PAYGO Transfers

Net Amount of Cash-Flow from the OASDI Net Amount of Cash-Flow from the OASDI 

Trust Funds to the General Fund of the Trust Funds to the General Fund of the 

Treasury During the Year 1 Treasury During the Year 1

Percent Billions of Dollars Percent Billions of Dollars 

Year of Payroll Current $ 1/1/2004 PV Const 2004 $ of Payroll Current $ 1/1/2004 PV Const 2004 $

2004 1.4 65 63 65 1.4 65 63 65

2005 1.9 89 82 87 1.9 89 82 87

2006 1.9 97 85 94 1.9 97 85 94

2007 0.8 43 36 41 2.0 105 87 99

2008 0.8 43 34 39 2.0 109 86 100

2009 0.6 34 26 31 1.8 105 78 93

2010 0.5 28 20 24 1.7 103 73 89

2011 0.3 22 14 18 1.6 101 67 85

2012 0.1 8 5 7 1.4 91 58 75

2013 -0.1 -8 -5 -7 1.1 79 47 63

2014 -0.3 -25 -14 -20 0.9 65 37 50

2015 -0.6 -45 -24 -34 0.6 48 25 36

2016 -0.9 -68 -35 -50 0.3 27 14 20

2017 -1.1 -93 -45 -67 0.0 4 2 3

2018 -1.4 -120 -54 -84 -0.3 -22 -10 -15

2019 -1.7 -150 -64 -102 -0.6 -51 -22 -35

2020 -2.0 -183 -74 -120 -0.9 -84 -34 -55

2021 -2.2 -216 -82 -139 -1.2 -119 -45 -76

2022 -2.5 -251 -90 -156 -1.5 -155 -56 -97

2023 -2.7 -287 -97 -174 -1.8 -195 -66 -118

2024 -2.9 -324 -104 -191 -2.1 -236 -76 -139

2025 -3.2 -361 -109 -207 -2.4 -279 -85 -160

2026 -3.3 -399 -114 -223 -2.7 -324 -93 -181

2027 -3.5 -436 -118 -237 -3.0 -370 -100 -201

2028 -3.6 -472 -120 -249 -3.2 -416 -106 -220

2029 -3.7 -505 -122 -260 -3.4 -463 -112 -238

2030 -3.8 -538 -122 -269 -3.6 -510 -116 -255

2031 -3.9 -569 -122 -277 -3.8 -558 -120 -271

2032 -3.9 -599 -122 -283 -4.0 -606 -123 -287

2033 -3.9 -625 -120 -288 -4.1 -653 -125 -300

2034 -3.9 -647 -117 -290 -4.2 -699 -127 -313

2035 -3.9 -666 -114 -290 -4.3 -744 -127 -324

2036 -3.8 -681 -110 -288 -4.4 -788 -127 -334

2037 -3.7 -692 -106 -285 -4.4 -831 -127 -343

2038 -3.6 -700 -101 -280 -4.5 -873 -126 -350

2039 -3.5 -704 -96 -275 -4.5 -915 -124 -357

2040 -3.3 -707 -91 -268 -4.5 -956 -123 -363

2041 -3.2 -708 -86 -261 -4.5 -1,000 -121 -369

2042 -3.1 -707 -81 -254 -4.5 -1,045 -120 -375

2043 -2.9 -704 -76 -246 -4.5 -1,091 -118 -381

2044 -2.8 -699 -71 -237 -4.5 -1,139 -116 -387

2045 -2.6 -692 -67 -229 -4.5 -1,189 -115 -393

2046 -2.5 -684 -62 -220 -4.6 -1,241 -113 -399

2047 -2.4 -674 -58 -211 -4.6 -1,297 -112 -405

2048 -2.2 -662 -54 -201 -4.6 -1,355 -110 -412

2049 -2.1 -649 -50 -192 -4.6 -1,417 -109 -419

2050 -2.0 -633 -46 -182 -4.6 -1,483 -108 -427

2051 -1.9 -619 -42 -173 -4.6 -1,555 -107 -435

2052 -1.7 -607 -39 -165 -4.7 -1,634 -106 -445

2053 -1.6 -595 -36 -158 -4.7 -1,717 -105 -455

2054 -1.5 -584 -34 -151 -4.8 -1,805 -104 -465

2055 -1.5 -573 -31 -144 -4.8 -1,899 -104 -476

2056 -1.4 -562 -29 -137 -4.9 -1,999 -103 -487

2057 -1.3 -551 -27 -131 -4.9 -2,104 -102 -499

2058 -1.2 -537 -25 -124 -5.0 -2,214 -102 -511

2059 -1.1 -522 -23 -117 -5.0 -2,328 -101 -522

2060 -1.0 -505 -21 -110 -5.1 -2,447 -100 -534

2061 -1.0 -489 -19 -104 -5.1 -2,574 -100 -547

2062 -0.9 -473 -17 -98 -5.2 -2,709 -99 -560

2063 -0.8 -460 -16 -92 -5.2 -2,854 -98 -574

2064 -0.8 -442 -14 -86 -5.3 -3,003 -98 -587

2065 -0.7 -422 -13 -80 -5.3 -3,157 -97 -600

2066 -0.7 -402 -12 -74 -5.4 -3,319 -96 -614

2067 -0.6 -381 -10 -69 -5.4 -3,489 -96 -628

2068 -0.5 -357 -9 -63 -5.5 -3,665 -95 -641

2069 -0.5 -331 -8 -56 -5.5 -3,847 -94 -655

2070 -0.4 -302 -7 -50 -5.6 -4,037 -93 -669

2071 -0.4 -272 -6 -44 -5.6 -4,235 -92 -682

2072 -0.3 -240 -5 -38 -5.7 -4,442 -92 -696

2073 -0.3 -207 -4 -32 -5.7 -4,660 -91 -710

2074 -0.2 -173 -3 -26 -5.7 -4,888 -90 -725

2075 -0.2 -138 -2 -20 -5.8 -5,127 -89 -740

2076 -0.1 -102 -2 -14 -5.8 -5,377 -88 -755

2077 -0.1 -64 -1 -9 -5.9 -5,640 -87 -770

2078 0.0 -23 0 -3 -5.9 -5,915 -87 -785

2079 0.0 19 0 2 -6.0 -6,203 -86 -801

Total 2004-78 -3,237 -5,225

1 Equals net investment in special Treasury Bonds by the Trust Funds Office of the Actuary

less the Amount of General Fund transfers specified in the proposal or in the theoretical Social Security Administration

plan (PAYGO Transfers) February 7, 2005
Table 1d Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Assets / Unfunded Obligation

Base Individual Account Contribution Rate: 2.0% Benefit Offset: 100.0%

Present Law OASDI

Trust Fund Assets Basic Amount(%) Offset to Proposal OASDI

or if Negative, Changes Contributed to OASDI Trust Fund Assets/

Unfunded Obligation in OASDI IA by Fed Gov: Benefits General Total Change Unfunded Obligation

Through EOY Cashflow 100 from IA Fund Transfers Through EOY Through EOY

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)=(2)-(3)+(4)+(5) (7)

Year (Billions of $, Present Value on 1-1-2004)

2005 1,674.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,674.6

2006 1,759.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,759.0

2007 1,845.5 0.0 51.3 0.0 0.0 -51.3 1,794.2

2008 1,930.8 0.0 52.0 0.0 0.0 -103.3 1,827.5

2009 2,008.4 0.0 52.5 0.0 0.0 -155.8 1,852.7

2010 2,080.8 0.0 52.9 0.0 0.0 -208.6 1,872.2

2011 2,148.0 0.0 53.1 0.0 0.0 -261.7 1,886.3

2012 2,205.6 0.1 53.2 0.3 0.0 -314.5 1,891.1

2013 2,252.4 0.3 53.0 0.7 0.0 -366.4 1,886.0

2014 2,289.0 0.7 52.8 1.1 0.0 -417.5 1,871.5

2015 2,314.3 1.2 52.5 1.6 0.0 -467.3 1,847.1

2016 2,327.9 1.8 52.1 2.1 0.0 -515.6 1,812.4

2017 2,329.7 2.5 51.6 2.7 0.0 -562.1 1,767.6

2018 2,319.7 3.3 51.1 3.3 0.0 -606.6 1,713.1

2019 2,297.6 4.3 50.5 3.9 0.0 -648.9 1,648.8

2020 2,263.7 5.4 49.8 4.6 0.0 -688.7 1,575.0

2021 2,218.5 6.6 49.2 5.4 0.0 -725.9 1,492.6

2022 2,162.6 8.0 48.5 6.2 0.0 -760.2 1,402.3

2023 2,096.4 9.5 47.8 7.0 0.0 -791.6 1,304.8

2024 2,020.7 11.1 47.1 7.9 0.0 -819.8 1,201.0

2025 1,936.1 12.8 46.3 8.8 0.0 -844.6 1,091.5

2026 1,843.3 14.6 45.5 9.7 0.0 -866.0 977.4

2027 1,743.3 16.5 44.8 10.7 0.0 -883.7 859.6

2028 1,637.0 18.5 44.1 11.7 0.0 -897.8 739.2

2029 1,525.4 20.6 43.4 12.7 16.0 -908.1 617.3

2030 1,409.4 22.7 42.7 13.7 113.4 -898.6 510.8

2031 1,289.5 24.9 42.0 14.7 114.7 -787.8 501.7

2032 1,166.5 27.1 41.3 15.8 112.9 -671.7 494.8

2033 1,041.2 29.4 40.7 16.9 108.1 -553.5 487.8

2034 914.6 31.7 40.0 18.0 103.5 -436.0 478.6

2035 787.2 34.0 39.4 19.1 101.9 -319.1 468.1

2036 659.9 36.3 38.8 20.2 94.6 -199.9 460.0

2037 533.0 38.4 38.2 21.3 90.3 -84.1 448.9

2038 407.2 40.5 37.6 22.4 86.1 31.2 438.3

2039 282.7 42.4 37.0 23.5 79.3 145.9 428.6

2040 159.8 44.2 36.5 24.6 75.4 257.2 417.0

2041 38.4 46.0 35.9 25.6 71.6 368.1 406.5

2042 -81.4 47.6 35.3 26.7 67.8 478.4 397.0

2043 -199.5 49.2 34.8 27.8 61.7 588.2 388.6

2044 -316.0 50.7 34.3 28.9 55.6 694.8 378.8

2045 -430.8 52.0 33.7 29.9 54.7 798.4 367.6

2046 -544.1 53.4 33.2 30.9 49.0 904.0 360.0

2047 -655.8 54.6 32.6 32.0 43.4 1,006.7 350.9

2048 -766.0 55.8 32.1 32.9 42.7 1,106.4 340.4

2049 -874.8 56.9 31.5 33.8 37.3 1,208.0 333.2

2050 -982.4 58.0 30.9 34.9 34.4 1,307.0 324.6

2051 -1,089.0 59.0 30.4 35.8 31.6 1,405.6 316.5

2052 -1,194.8 60.0 29.8 36.6 28.8 1,503.6 308.8

2053 -1,299.7 60.9 29.3 37.1 26.2 1,601.0 301.3

2054 -1,403.9 61.8 28.8 37.6 25.8 1,697.6 293.7

2055 -1,507.4 62.7 28.2 38.1 21.1 1,795.7 288.2

2056 -1,610.3 63.5 27.7 38.5 20.8 1,890.7 280.4

2057 -1,712.7 64.2 27.2 38.8 20.4 1,987.1 274.4

2058 -1,814.4 64.9 26.7 39.0 16.1 2,084.5 270.1

2059 -1,915.3 65.6 26.2 39.2 13.8 2,178.9 263.6

2060 -2,015.6 66.2 25.7 39.3 13.6 2,272.3 256.7

2061 -2,115.1 66.7 25.2 39.4 13.4 2,366.5 251.4

2062 -2,214.1 67.2 24.8 39.4 9.4 2,461.6 247.5

2063 -2,312.6 67.7 24.3 39.4 9.2 2,553.6 241.0

2064 -2,410.5 68.2 23.8 39.3 9.1 2,646.3 235.8

2065 -2,507.7 68.6 23.4 39.2 7.1 2,739.6 231.9

2066 -2,604.1 68.9 22.9 39.0 5.3 2,831.5 227.4

2067 -2,699.9 69.2 22.5 38.8 5.2 2,922.1 222.2

2068 -2,794.9 69.5 22.1 38.5 3.4 3,013.0 218.1

2069 -2,889.1 69.7 21.7 38.2 1.7 3,102.5 213.4

2070 -2,982.5 69.9 21.2 37.9 1.6 3,190.6 208.1

2071 -3,075.0 70.0 20.8 37.5 1.6 3,278.8 203.8

2072 -3,166.6 70.1 20.4 37.2 0.0 3,367.1 200.5

2073 -3,257.4 70.2 20.0 36.7 0.0 3,453.8 196.4

2074 -3,347.3 70.2 19.7 36.3 0.0 3,540.6 193.2

2075 -3,436.4 70.3 19.3 35.9 0.0 3,627.2 190.8

2076 -3,524.7 70.3 18.9 35.4 0.0 3,713.8 189.2

2077 -3,612.1 70.2 18.5 34.9 0.0 3,800.2 188.2

2078 -3,698.7 70.2 18.2 34.4 0.0 3,886.5 187.8

Total 2004-78 2,909.1 2,581.3 1,671.1 1,899.4

 Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report

 With Ultimate Real Trust Fund Interest Rate of 3.0% Office of the Actuary

Benefit Offset Real Yield Rate Set at 3.0% Social Security Administration

Benefit Offset Real Discount Rate Set at 3.0% February 7, 2005
Table 2 Pozen Proposal: PIA start 2012: IA 2%to $3K start 2007 <55 on 1-1-05

Base IA Cont Rate: 2.0% to $3,000 (CPI Indexed) Benefit Offset: 100.0%

Tax IA like benefits Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield Rate of 3.00 Assumed Participation in Voluntary IA: 66.7%

General Revenue Benefit Offset Real Yield Rate Set at 3.00 "Effective"

Transfers Benefit Offset Real Discount Rate Set at 3.00 Change "Effective" General "Effective"

As Needed in OASDI OASDI Revenue IA

Cost Income Annual TFR Contribution Contribution Transfer Contribution

Year Rate1 Rate Balance 1-1-yr Rate Rate2 Solvency Rate

2004 11.07 12.71 1.64 306 Assess 12.40 0.00

2005 10.87 12.73 1.86 325 IA for 3% 12.40 0.00

2006 10.77 12.73 1.97 347 accumulation 12.40 0.00

2007 10.75 11.57 0.82 367 at early -1.180 11.22 1.18

2008 10.80 11.59 0.79 374 death -0.021 11.20 1.20

2009 10.95 11.56 0.61 378 -0.019 11.18 1.22

2010 11.08 11.56 0.48 381 -0.018 11.16 1.24

2011 11.25 11.60 0.35 383 -0.017 11.14 1.26

2012 11.48 11.61 0.13 382 -0.015 11.13 1.27

2013 11.74 11.63 -0.11 379 -0.012 11.12 1.28

2014 11.97 11.63 -0.34 375 -0.010 11.11 1.29

2015 12.23 11.64 -0.59 368 -0.008 11.10 1.30

2016 12.51 11.65 -0.86 360 -0.007 11.09 1.31

2017 12.79 11.67 -1.12 350 -0.005 11.09 1.31

2018 13.07 11.68 -1.39 339 -0.004 11.08 1.32

2019 13.36 11.70 -1.67 326 -0.004 11.08 1.32

2020 13.66 11.71 -1.95 312 -0.003 11.08 1.32

2021 13.94 11.72 -2.21 296 -0.003 11.07 1.33

2022 14.20 11.74 -2.46 280 -0.002 11.07 1.33

2023 14.46 11.75 -2.71 263 -0.002 11.07 1.33

2024 14.70 11.77 -2.93 244 -0.002 11.07 1.33

2025 14.92 11.78 -3.14 225 0.000 11.07 1.33

2026 15.13 11.80 -3.33 205 0.000 11.07 1.33

2027 15.30 11.81 -3.50 185 0.000 11.07 1.33

2028 15.45 11.82 -3.63 163 0.000 11.07 1.33

2029 15.57 11.83 -3.74 142 0.000 11.07 1.33

2030 15.66 12.34 -3.32 120 0.500 11.57 0.5 1.33

2031 15.73 15.45 -0.28 100 3.100 14.67 3.6 1.33

2032 15.77 15.56 -0.22 100 0.100 14.77 3.7 1.33

2033 15.78 15.56 -0.22 100 0.000 14.77 3.7 1.33

2034 15.76 15.46 -0.30 100 -0.100 14.67 3.6 1.33

2035 15.72 15.47 -0.25 100 0.000 14.67 3.6 1.33

2036 15.64 15.27 -0.38 100 -0.200 14.47 3.4 1.33

2037 15.55 15.17 -0.38 100 -0.100 14.37 3.3 1.33

2038 15.44 15.06 -0.37 100 -0.100 14.27 3.2 1.33

2039 15.31 14.96 -0.35 100 -0.100 14.17 3.1 1.33

2040 15.18 14.86 -0.33 100 -0.100 14.07 3.0 1.33

2041 15.05 14.66 -0.39 100 -0.200 13.87 2.8 1.33

2042 14.92 14.55 -0.36 100 -0.100 13.77 2.7 1.33

2043 14.78 14.45 -0.33 100 -0.100 13.67 2.6 1.33

2044 14.64 14.24 -0.39 100 -0.200 13.47 2.4 1.33

2045 14.50 14.14 -0.36 100 -0.100 13.37 2.3 1.33

2046 14.36 14.04 -0.32 100 -0.100 13.27 2.2 1.33

2047 14.22 13.83 -0.39 100 -0.200 13.07 2.0 1.33

2048 14.09 13.73 -0.35 100 -0.098 12.97 1.9 1.33

2049 13.96 13.63 -0.33 100 -0.098 12.87 1.8 1.33

2050 13.83 13.43 -0.40 100 -0.198 12.67 1.6 1.33

2051 13.71 13.43 -0.28 100 0.002 12.68 1.6 1.32

2052 13.60 13.23 -0.37 100 -0.198 12.48 1.4 1.32

2053 13.51 13.23 -0.27 100 0.002 12.48 1.4 1.32

2054 13.41 13.13 -0.28 100 -0.098 12.38 1.3 1.32

2055 13.33 12.93 -0.39 100 -0.198 12.18 1.1 1.32

2056 13.25 12.94 -0.31 100 0.002 12.19 1.1 1.31

2057 13.17 12.94 -0.23 100 0.002 12.19 1.1 1.31

2058 13.09 12.84 -0.25 100 -0.097 12.09 1.0 1.31

2059 13.01 12.74 -0.27 100 -0.097 12.00 0.9 1.30

2060 12.94 12.64 -0.30 100 -0.097 11.90 0.8 1.30

2061 12.87 12.54 -0.33 100 -0.097 11.80 0.7 1.30

2062 12.80 12.55 -0.26 100 0.003 11.80 0.7 1.30

2063 12.75 12.45 -0.30 100 -0.097 11.71 0.6 1.29

2064 12.69 12.45 -0.24 100 0.003 11.71 0.6 1.29

2065 12.63 12.35 -0.28 100 -0.097 11.61 0.5 1.29

2066 12.57 12.35 -0.22 100 0.003 11.62 0.5 1.28

2067 12.51 12.25 -0.26 100 -0.097 11.52 0.4 1.28

2068 12.46 12.16 -0.30 100 -0.097 11.42 0.3 1.28

2069 12.40 12.16 -0.24 100 0.003 11.43 0.3 1.27

2070 12.35 12.06 -0.29 100 -0.097 11.33 0.2 1.27

2071 12.29 12.06 -0.23 100 0.003 11.33 0.2 1.27

2072 12.24 11.96 -0.28 100 -0.097 11.24 0.1 1.26

2073 12.19 11.97 -0.23 100 0.003 11.24 0.1 1.26

2074 12.14 11.87 -0.28 100 -0.097 11.14 1.26

2075 12.10 11.87 -0.23 100 0.003 11.15 1.25

2076 12.06 11.87 -0.19 100 0.003 11.15 1.25

2077 12.02 11.87 -0.14 100 0.003 11.15 1.25

2078 11.97 11.88 -0.10 101 0.004 11.16 1.24

2079 11.94 11.88 -0.06 102 0.004 11.16 1.24

Summarized OASDI

Actuarial Change in 

Cost Rate Income Rate Balance Actuarial Balance Office of the Actuary

2004 - 2078 13.46 13.46 0.00 1.89 Social Security 1 Net of Benefit Offset February 7, 2005 2

 Including General Revenue Transfer Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report With Ultimate Real Trust Fund Interest Rate of 3.00
Table 2a Proposal GF Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Assets, Individual Account Assets, and Theoretical OASDI Assets

Expected Theoretical Social Security 2

Proposal General Fund Transfers Total OASDI Individual with Borrowing Authority

Accumulated Trust Fund Account Net OASDI TF Assets End of Year

Present Value Percent of Annual as of Assets Assets 1 Without GF With GF Transfer

as of 1-1-2004 Tax Payroll Transfers End of Year at End of Year at End of Year GDP Transfer (amount for Prop)

Calendar (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

Year Billions Billions of Constant 2004$ Billions of Constant 2004 Dollars

2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1,684 0 11,544 1,684 1,684

2005 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1,840 0 11,911 1,840 1,840

2006 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1,998 0 12,246 1,998 1,998

2007 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,096 58 12,562 2,156 2,156

2008 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,192 120 12,870 2,315 2,315

2009 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,281 186 13,171 2,473 2,473

2010 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,367 255 13,466 2,631 2,631

2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,450 328 13,752 2,790 2,790

2012 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,525 405 14,024 2,944 2,944

2013 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,588 485 14,285 3,091 3,091

2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,641 568 14,547 3,230 3,230

2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,681 654 14,804 3,360 3,360

2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,708 744 15,061 3,478 3,478

2017 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,719 837 15,322 3,584 3,584

2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,714 933 15,586 3,675 3,675

2019 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,691 1,032 15,842 3,750 3,750

2020 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,648 1,133 16,100 3,805 3,805

2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,584 1,238 16,354 3,841 3,841

2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,501 1,345 16,610 3,857 3,857

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,397 1,454 16,861 3,851 3,851

2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,272 1,566 17,117 3,823 3,823

2025 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2,127 1,679 17,372 3,773 3,773

2026 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1,961 1,795 17,634 3,700 3,700

2027 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1,777 1,913 17,903 3,604 3,604

2028 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1,573 2,033 18,174 3,486 3,486

2029 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1,353 2,154 18,451 3,346 3,346

2030 16.0 0.5 35.1 35 1,153 2,277 18,733 3,184 3,219

2031 113.4 3.6 256.4 293 1,166 2,402 19,022 3,000 3,293

2032 114.7 3.7 267.1 568 1,184 2,527 19,319 2,796 3,364

2033 112.9 3.7 270.8 856 1,202 2,655 19,622 2,570 3,427

2034 108.1 3.6 267.1 1,149 1,214 2,783 19,929 2,325 3,474

2035 106.4 3.6 270.8 1,454 1,230 2,913 20,243 2,062 3,516

2036 98.9 3.4 259.4 1,757 1,237 3,043 20,564 1,780 3,537

2037 94.6 3.3 255.3 2,065 1,243 3,174 20,892 1,481 3,546

2038 90.3 3.2 251.1 2,378 1,249 3,306 21,226 1,165 3,544

2039 86.1 3.1 246.7 2,696 1,256 3,438 21,562 833 3,530

2040 82.0 3.0 242.1 3,019 1,266 3,570 21,904 485 3,504

2041 75.4 2.8 229.1 3,339 1,270 3,703 22,252 120 3,459

2042 71.6 2.7 224.0 3,663 1,276 3,835 22,605 -262 3,401

2043 67.8 2.6 218.7 3,992 1,285 3,967 22,961 -662 3,330

2044 61.7 2.4 204.7 4,316 1,288 4,099 23,322 -1,080 3,237

2045 58.2 2.3 198.9 4,645 1,294 4,230 23,687 -1,516 3,128

2046 54.7 2.2 192.9 4,977 1,303 4,360 24,055 -1,972 3,005

2047 49.0 2.0 177.7 5,304 1,306 4,488 24,426 -2,449 2,855

2048 45.8 1.9 171.1 5,634 1,312 4,616 24,799 -2,946 2,688

2049 42.7 1.8 164.2 5,967 1,319 4,741 25,174 -3,465 2,502

2050 37.3 1.6 147.9 6,294 1,320 4,865 25,552 -4,008 2,286

2051 36.7 1.6 149.9 6,633 1,332 4,986 25,936 -4,577 2,056

2052 31.6 1.4 132.8 6,965 1,335 5,105 26,324 -5,172 1,793

2053 31.1 1.4 134.6 7,308 1,347 5,222 26,721 -5,795 1,514

2054 28.4 1.3 126.6 7,654 1,358 5,337 27,123 -6,447 1,208

2055 23.6 1.1 108.5 7,993 1,358 5,451 27,528 -7,130 863

2056 23.2 1.1 110.0 8,342 1,366 5,564 27,939 -7,845 497

2057 22.8 1.1 111.4 8,704 1,382 5,674 28,354 -8,594 110

2058 20.4 1.0 102.6 9,068 1,395 5,783 28,775 -9,378 -310

2059 18.1 0.9 93.5 9,433 1,407 5,890 29,204 -10,196 -763

2060 15.8 0.8 84.2 9,800 1,416 5,996 29,639 -11,052 -1,252

2061 13.6 0.7 74.6 10,169 1,422 6,100 30,078 -11,946 -1,777

2062 13.4 0.7 75.6 10,550 1,434 6,202 30,526 -12,880 -2,330

2063 11.3 0.6 65.6 10,932 1,442 6,303 30,978 -13,857 -2,925

2064 11.1 0.6 66.5 11,326 1,457 6,403 31,438 -14,876 -3,550

2065 9.1 0.5 56.1 11,722 1,468 6,502 31,906 -15,940 -4,218

2066 8.9 0.5 56.9 12,131 1,486 6,599 32,379 -17,050 -4,919

2067 7.0 0.4 46.1 12,541 1,498 6,695 32,861 -18,208 -5,667

2068 5.2 0.3 35.0 12,952 1,506 6,790 33,359 -19,414 -6,462

2069 5.1 0.3 35.5 13,376 1,520 6,884 33,859 -20,670 -7,294

2070 3.3 0.2 24.0 13,801 1,530 6,977 34,366 -21,978 -8,177

2071 3.3 0.2 24.3 14,240 1,545 7,070 34,882 -23,340 -9,100

2072 1.6 0.1 12.3 14,679 1,556 7,162 35,404 -24,756 -10,077

2073 1.6 0.1 12.5 15,132 1,572 7,253 35,931 -26,230 -11,098

2074 0.0 0.0 0.0 15,586 1,582 7,344 36,464 -27,762 -12,177

2075 0.0 0.0 0.0 16,053 1,598 7,434 37,006 -29,356 -13,303

2076 0.0 0.0 0.0 16,535 1,620 7,524 37,555 -31,014 -14,479

2077 0.0 0.0 0.0 17,031 1,648 7,614 38,112 -32,736 -15,705

2078 0.0 0.0 0.0 17,542 1,683 7,704 38,677 -34,527 -16,985

2079 0.0 0.0 0.0 18,068 1,724 7,794 39,245 -36,387 -18,319

Total 1,933.7

Office of the Actuary 1

 Including annuity assets, assuming all annuitize fully. Social Security Administration 2 Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption February 7, 2005

 that the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury. Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report

Annual Transfers
Table 2b IA Contributions, IA Offset, Other Changes, & Budget Effect

Base Individual Account Contribution Rate: 2.0% Benefit Offset: 100.0%

Amount(%) Other Change in 

Contributed to Offset to Changes Annual Debt Held Annual 

IA by Fed Gov: OASDI Ben in OASDI Unified Budget by Public Unified Budget

100 From IA Cash flow Cashflow (EOY) Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4)=(3)+(2)-(1) (6) (7)

Year (Billions of $, Present Value on 1-1-2004)

2005 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2006 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2007 51.3 0.0 0.0 -51.3 52.7 -52.7

2008 52.0 0.0 0.0 -52.0 106.1 -56.1

2009 52.5 0.0 0.0 -52.5 160.0 -59.5

2010 52.9 0.0 0.0 -52.9 214.4 -62.8

2011 53.1 0.0 0.0 -53.1 269.0 -66.0

2012 53.2 0.3 0.1 -52.7 323.2 -68.6

2013 53.0 0.7 0.3 -52.0 376.7 -70.8

2014 52.8 1.1 0.7 -51.0 429.2 -72.8

2015 52.5 1.6 1.2 -49.8 480.5 -74.6

2016 52.1 2.1 1.8 -48.3 530.2 -76.0

2017 51.6 2.7 2.5 -46.5 578.2 -77.1

2018 51.1 3.3 3.3 -44.5 624.1 -77.9

2019 50.5 3.9 4.3 -42.2 667.5 -78.1

2020 49.8 4.6 5.4 -39.8 708.4 -78.0

2021 49.2 5.4 6.6 -37.1 746.6 -77.6

2022 48.5 6.2 8.0 -34.3 781.9 -76.8

2023 47.8 7.0 9.5 -31.3 814.1 -75.6

2024 47.1 7.9 11.1 -28.1 843.0 -74.2

2025 46.3 8.8 12.8 -24.8 868.5 -72.3

2026 45.5 9.7 14.6 -21.3 890.4 -70.2

2027 44.8 10.7 16.5 -17.7 908.6 -67.7

2028 44.1 11.7 18.4 -14.0 923.0 -64.9

2029 43.4 12.7 20.5 -10.2 933.5 -61.8

2030 42.7 13.7 22.6 -6.4 940.1 -58.5

2031 42.0 14.7 24.8 -2.5 942.7 -54.8

2032 41.3 15.8 27.0 1.4 941.2 -50.9

2033 40.7 16.9 29.2 5.4 935.6 -46.7

2034 40.0 18.0 31.5 9.4 925.9 -42.3

2035 39.4 19.1 33.7 13.4 912.1 -37.7

2036 38.8 20.2 36.0 17.4 894.3 -32.8

2037 38.2 21.3 38.2 21.2 872.4 -27.9

2038 37.6 22.4 40.2 24.9 846.8 -22.8

2039 37.0 23.5 42.1 28.5 817.4 -17.7

2040 36.5 24.6 43.9 32.0 784.5 -12.5

2041 35.9 25.6 45.6 35.3 748.2 -7.3

2042 35.3 26.7 47.2 38.6 708.5 -1.9

2043 34.8 27.8 48.7 41.7 665.6 3.5

2044 34.3 28.9 50.1 44.7 619.6 9.1

2045 33.7 29.9 51.5 47.7 570.5 14.6

2046 33.2 30.9 52.8 50.5 518.5 20.3

2047 32.6 32.0 54.0 53.3 463.7 26.0

2048 32.1 32.9 55.1 55.9 406.2 31.8

2049 31.5 33.8 56.1 58.5 346.0 37.6

2050 30.9 34.9 57.2 61.1 283.1 43.7

2051 30.4 35.8 58.1 63.6 217.7 49.7

2052 29.8 36.6 59.1 65.8 150.0 55.6

2053 29.3 37.1 60.0 67.8 80.2 61.5

2054 28.8 37.6 60.8 69.7 8.4 67.3

2055 28.2 38.1 61.7 71.5 -65.2 73.1

2056 27.7 38.5 62.4 73.2 -140.4 78.9

2057 27.2 38.8 63.1 74.7 -217.3 84.7

2058 26.7 39.0 63.8 76.1 -295.6 90.4

2059 26.2 39.2 64.4 77.4 -375.3 96.1

2060 25.7 39.3 65.0 78.6 -456.1 101.7

2061 25.2 39.4 65.5 79.7 -538.1 107.3

2062 24.8 39.4 66.0 80.7 -621.1 112.9

2063 24.3 39.4 66.5 81.6 -705.1 118.5

2064 23.8 39.3 66.9 82.4 -789.9 124.0

2065 23.4 39.2 67.3 83.1 -875.4 129.4

2066 22.9 39.0 67.6 83.7 -961.5 134.8

2067 22.5 38.8 67.9 84.2 -1,048.1 140.1

2068 22.1 38.5 68.2 84.6 -1,135.2 145.3

2069 21.7 38.2 68.4 85.0 -1,222.7 150.5

2070 21.2 37.9 68.6 85.2 -1,310.4 155.6

2071 20.8 37.5 68.7 85.4 -1,398.3 160.7

2072 20.4 37.2 68.8 85.5 -1,486.3 165.7

2073 20.0 36.7 68.9 85.6 -1,574.4 170.7

2074 19.7 36.3 69.0 85.6 -1,662.4 175.6

2075 19.3 35.9 69.0 85.5 -1,750.5 180.4

2076 18.9 35.4 69.0 85.4 -1,838.4 185.2

2077 18.5 34.9 68.9 85.3 -1,926.2 189.9

2078 18.2 34.4 68.9 85.1 -2,013.8 194.6

2079 17.8 33.9 68.8 84.9 -2,101.1 199.3

 Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report

 With Ultimate Real Trust Fund Interest Rate of 3.0% Office of the Actuary

Benefit Offset Real Yield Rate Set at 3.0% Social Security Administration

Benefit Offset Real Discount Rate Set at 3.0% February 7, 2005
Table 2 b.c. IA Contributions, IA Offset, Other Changes, & Budget Effect

Base Individual Account Contribution Rate: 2.0% Benefit Offset: 100.0%

Amount(%) Other Change in 

Contributed to Offset to Changes Annual Debt Held Annual 

IA by Fed Gov: OASDI Ben in OASDI Unified Budget by Public Unified Budget

100 From IA Cash flow Cashflow (EOY) Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4)=(3)+(2)-(1) (6) (7)

Year (Billions of Constant 2004 $)

2005 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2006 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2007 58.4 0.0 0.0 -58.4 59.1 -60.0

2008 60.7 0.0 0.0 -60.7 122.1 -65.5

2009 62.9 0.0 0.0 -62.9 189.1 -71.3

2010 65.1 0.0 0.0 -65.1 260.1 -77.3

2011 67.1 0.0 0.0 -67.1 335.3 -83.4

2012 69.0 0.4 0.1 -68.5 414.1 -89.1

2013 70.7 0.9 0.5 -69.4 495.9 -94.5

2014 72.5 1.5 0.9 -70.0 581.0 -99.9

2015 74.1 2.2 1.6 -70.3 669.0 -105.3

2016 75.7 3.0 2.5 -70.1 759.6 -110.4

2017 77.2 4.0 3.7 -69.5 852.7 -115.3

2018 78.6 5.0 5.1 -68.5 947.8 -120.0

2019 80.0 6.3 6.8 -67.0 1,044.1 -123.9

2020 81.4 7.6 8.8 -65.0 1,141.4 -127.4

2021 82.7 9.1 11.2 -62.4 1,239.0 -130.5

2022 84.0 10.7 13.8 -59.4 1,336.5 -133.0

2023 85.3 12.5 16.9 -55.8 1,433.2 -135.0

2024 86.5 14.5 20.3 -51.7 1,528.7 -136.4

2025 87.7 16.6 24.2 -46.9 1,622.2 -137.0

2026 88.8 18.9 28.4 -41.5 1,712.9 -136.8

2027 90.0 21.4 33.1 -35.5 1,800.4 -136.0

2028 91.2 24.1 38.1 -29.0 1,883.8 -134.3

2029 92.4 27.0 43.6 -21.8 1,962.4 -131.8

2030 93.7 30.1 49.6 -14.0 2,035.5 -128.3

2031 94.9 33.3 56.0 -5.6 2,102.3 -123.9

2032 96.2 36.8 62.8 3.4 2,162.0 -118.5

2033 97.6 40.5 70.1 13.0 2,213.7 -112.1

2034 98.9 44.4 77.8 23.2 2,256.5 -104.6

2035 100.3 48.5 85.9 34.1 2,289.6 -95.9

2036 101.7 52.8 94.4 45.5 2,312.0 -86.0

2037 103.2 57.4 103.1 57.3 2,323.3 -75.2

2038 104.6 62.2 111.8 69.3 2,322.6 -63.5

2039 106.1 67.2 120.5 81.7 2,309.4 -50.8

2040 107.6 72.4 129.4 94.3 2,283.0 -37.0

2041 109.1 77.9 138.5 107.3 2,242.5 -22.0

2042 110.6 83.7 147.7 120.7 2,187.3 -5.9

2043 112.2 89.6 157.0 134.5 2,116.4 11.4

2044 113.7 95.8 166.5 148.6 2,029.1 30.1

2045 115.3 102.3 176.1 163.1 1,924.5 50.0

2046 116.9 109.0 185.8 178.0 1,801.6 71.4

2047 118.5 116.0 195.8 193.3 1,659.5 94.3

2048 119.9 123.0 205.8 209.0 1,497.2 118.8

2049 121.2 130.3 216.1 225.2 1,313.6 144.8

2050 122.6 138.3 226.6 242.3 1,107.1 173.1

2051 124.0 146.2 237.4 259.6 876.9 202.8

2052 125.4 153.8 248.5 276.9 622.2 234.0

2053 126.9 160.9 259.9 293.9 342.6 266.3

2054 128.3 168.0 271.5 311.2 37.0 300.3

2055 129.8 175.1 283.4 328.6 -295.4 336.0

2056 131.3 182.1 295.5 346.3 -655.7 373.5

2057 132.7 189.0 307.9 364.2 -1,045.0 412.8

2058 134.2 196.0 320.5 382.3 -1,464.4 454.0

2059 135.6 202.8 333.3 400.5 -1,914.8 497.1

2060 137.0 209.6 346.3 418.8 -2,397.3 542.1

2061 138.5 216.3 359.6 437.3 -2,913.0 589.1

2062 139.9 222.8 373.2 456.1 -3,463.3 638.4

2063 141.4 229.3 387.2 475.1 -4,049.4 689.9

2064 142.9 235.7 401.4 494.2 -4,672.4 743.5

2065 144.4 242.0 415.7 513.2 -5,333.5 799.3

2066 145.9 248.1 430.3 532.5 -6,033.9 857.4

2067 147.5 254.1 445.2 551.8 -6,774.9 918.0

2068 149.0 260.0 460.3 571.3 -7,558.0 981.0

2069 150.6 265.8 475.6 590.8 -8,384.3 1,046.6

2070 152.1 271.4 491.1 610.4 -9,255.3 1,114.7

2071 153.7 276.9 506.9 630.1 -10,172.4 1,185.5

2072 155.3 282.3 522.9 649.9 -11,137.2 1,259.1

2073 156.9 287.5 539.2 669.8 -12,151.1 1,335.6

2074 158.5 292.6 555.8 689.9 -13,215.8 1,415.1

2075 160.1 297.7 572.6 710.2 -14,333.1 1,497.8

2076 161.7 302.6 589.8 730.6 -15,504.6 1,583.6

2077 163.4 307.4 607.2 751.3 -16,732.2 1,672.8

2078 165.0 312.1 625.1 772.2 -18,017.9 1,765.6

2079 166.6 316.8 643.3 793.5 -19,363.7 1,862.2

 Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report

 With Ultimate Real Trust Fund Interest Rate of 3.0% Office of the Actuary

Benefit Offset Real Yield Rate Set at 3.0% Social Security Administration

Benefit Offset Real Discount Rate Set at 3.0% February 7, 2005
Table 2c OASDI Cash Flow to General Fund of the Treasury--- Proposal vs. Theoretical OASDI

Proposal Theoretical Social Security with PAYGO Transfers

Net Amount of Cash-Flow from the OASDI Net Amount of Cash-Flow from the OASDI

Trust Funds to the General Fund of the Trust Funds to the General Fund of the

Treasury During the Year 1 Treasury During the Year 1

Percent Billions of Dollars Percent Billions of Dollars

Year of Payroll Current $ 1/1/2004 PV Const 2004 $ of Payroll Current $ 1/1/2004 PV Const 2004 $

2004 1.4 65 63 65 1.4 65 63 65

2005 1.9 89 82 87 1.9 89 82 87

2006 1.9 97 85 94 1.9 97 85 94

2007 0.8 43 36 41 2.0 105 87 99

2008 0.8 43 34 39 2.0 109 86 100

2009 0.6 34 26 31 1.8 105 78 93

2010 0.5 28 20 24 1.7 103 73 89

2011 0.3 22 14 18 1.6 101 67 85

2012 0.1 8 5 7 1.4 91 58 75

2013 -0.1 -8 -5 -7 1.1 79 47 63

2014 -0.3 -25 -14 -20 0.9 65 37 50

2015 -0.6 -45 -24 -34 0.6 48 25 36

2016 -0.9 -68 -35 -50 0.3 27 14 20

2017 -1.1 -93 -45 -67 0.0 4 2 3

2018 -1.4 -120 -54 -84 -0.3 -22 -10 -15

2019 -1.7 -150 -64 -102 -0.6 -51 -22 -35

2020 -2.0 -183 -74 -120 -0.9 -84 -34 -55

2021 -2.2 -216 -82 -139 -1.2 -119 -45 -76

2022 -2.5 -251 -90 -156 -1.5 -155 -56 -97

2023 -2.7 -287 -97 -174 -1.8 -195 -66 -118

2024 -2.9 -324 -104 -191 -2.1 -236 -76 -139

2025 -3.2 -361 -109 -207 -2.4 -279 -85 -160

2026 -3.3 -399 -114 -223 -2.7 -324 -93 -181

2027 -3.5 -436 -118 -237 -3.0 -370 -100 -201

2028 -3.6 -472 -120 -249 -3.2 -416 -106 -220

2029 -3.7 -506 -122 -260 -3.4 -463 -112 -238

2030 -3.8 -538 -123 -269 -3.6 -510 -116 -255

2031 -3.9 -570 -123 -277 -3.8 -558 -120 -271

2032 -3.9 -600 -122 -284 -4.0 -606 -123 -287

2033 -3.9 -626 -120 -288 -4.1 -653 -125 -300

2034 -3.9 -648 -117 -290 -4.2 -699 -127 -313

2035 -3.9 -667 -114 -291 -4.3 -744 -127 -324

2036 -3.8 -682 -110 -289 -4.4 -788 -127 -334

2037 -3.7 -694 -106 -286 -4.4 -831 -127 -343

2038 -3.6 -702 -101 -281 -4.5 -873 -126 -350

2039 -3.5 -707 -96 -276 -4.5 -915 -124 -357

2040 -3.3 -710 -91 -269 -4.5 -956 -123 -363

2041 -3.2 -711 -86 -262 -4.5 -1,000 -121 -369

2042 -3.1 -711 -81 -255 -4.5 -1,045 -120 -375

2043 -2.9 -709 -77 -247 -4.5 -1,091 -118 -381

2044 -2.8 -704 -72 -239 -4.5 -1,139 -116 -387

2045 -2.7 -698 -67 -231 -4.5 -1,189 -115 -393

2046 -2.5 -690 -63 -222 -4.6 -1,241 -113 -399

2047 -2.4 -681 -59 -213 -4.6 -1,297 -112 -405

2048 -2.3 -671 -55 -204 -4.6 -1,355 -110 -412

2049 -2.1 -659 -51 -195 -4.6 -1,417 -109 -419

2050 -2.0 -645 -47 -185 -4.6 -1,483 -108 -427

2051 -1.9 -632 -43 -177 -4.6 -1,555 -107 -435

2052 -1.8 -621 -40 -169 -4.7 -1,634 -106 -445

2053 -1.7 -611 -37 -162 -4.7 -1,717 -105 -455

2054 -1.6 -601 -35 -155 -4.8 -1,805 -104 -465

2055 -1.5 -592 -32 -148 -4.8 -1,899 -104 -476

2056 -1.4 -583 -30 -142 -4.9 -1,999 -103 -487

2057 -1.3 -573 -28 -136 -4.9 -2,104 -102 -499

2058 -1.3 -562 -26 -130 -5.0 -2,214 -102 -511

2059 -1.2 -548 -24 -123 -5.0 -2,328 -101 -522

2060 -1.1 -534 -22 -117 -5.1 -2,447 -100 -534

2061 -1.0 -520 -20 -110 -5.1 -2,574 -100 -547

2062 -1.0 -507 -19 -105 -5.2 -2,709 -99 -560

2063 -0.9 -495 -17 -100 -5.2 -2,854 -98 -574

2064 -0.8 -481 -16 -94 -5.3 -3,003 -98 -587

2065 -0.8 -464 -14 -88 -5.3 -3,157 -97 -600

2066 -0.7 -447 -13 -83 -5.4 -3,319 -96 -614

2067 -0.7 -429 -12 -77 -5.4 -3,489 -96 -628

2068 -0.6 -407 -11 -71 -5.5 -3,665 -95 -641

2069 -0.6 -384 -9 -65 -5.5 -3,847 -94 -655

2070 -0.5 -358 -8 -59 -5.6 -4,037 -93 -669

2071 -0.4 -331 -7 -53 -5.6 -4,235 -92 -682

2072 -0.4 -303 -6 -48 -5.7 -4,442 -92 -696

2073 -0.3 -274 -5 -42 -5.7 -4,660 -91 -710

2074 -0.3 -244 -4 -36 -5.7 -4,888 -90 -725

2075 -0.2 -212 -4 -31 -5.8 -5,127 -89 -740

2076 -0.2 -180 -3 -25 -5.8 -5,377 -88 -755

2077 -0.2 -146 -2 -20 -5.9 -5,640 -87 -770

2078 -0.1 -109 -2 -14 -5.9 -5,915 -87 -785

2079 -0.1 -71 -1 -9 -6.0 -6,203 -86 -801

Total 2004-78 -3,279 -5,225

1 Equals net investment in special Treasury Bonds by the Trust Funds Office of the Actuary

less the Amount of General Fund transfers specified in the proposal or in the theoretical Social Security Administration

plan (PAYGO Transfers) February 7, 2005
Table 2d Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Assets / Unfunded Obligation

Base Individual Account Contribution Rate: 2.0% Benefit Offset: 100.0%

Present Law OASDI

Trust Fund Assets Basic Amount(%) Offset to Proposal OASDI

or if Negative, Changes Contributed to OASDI Trust Fund Assets/

Unfunded Obligation in OASDI IA by Fed Gov: Benefits General Total Change Unfunded Obligation

Through EOY Cashflow 100 from IA Fund Transfers Through EOY Through EOY

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)=(2)-(3)+(4)+(5) (7)

Year (Billions of $, Present Value on 1-1-2004)

2005 1,674.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,674.6

2006 1,759.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,759.0

2007 1,845.5 0.0 51.3 0.0 0.0 -51.3 1,794.2

2008 1,930.8 0.0 52.0 0.0 0.0 -103.3 1,827.5

2009 2,008.4 0.0 52.5 0.0 0.0 -155.8 1,852.7

2010 2,080.8 0.0 52.9 0.0 0.0 -208.6 1,872.2

2011 2,148.0 0.0 53.1 0.0 0.0 -261.7 1,886.3

2012 2,205.6 0.1 53.2 0.3 0.0 -314.5 1,891.1

2013 2,252.4 0.3 53.0 0.7 0.0 -366.4 1,886.0

2014 2,289.0 0.7 52.8 1.1 0.0 -417.5 1,871.5

2015 2,314.3 1.2 52.5 1.6 0.0 -467.3 1,847.1

2016 2,327.9 1.8 52.1 2.1 0.0 -515.6 1,812.4

2017 2,329.7 2.5 51.6 2.7 0.0 -562.1 1,767.6

2018 2,319.7 3.3 51.1 3.3 0.0 -606.6 1,713.1

2019 2,297.6 4.3 50.5 3.9 0.0 -648.9 1,648.8

2020 2,263.7 5.4 49.8 4.6 0.0 -688.7 1,575.1

2021 2,218.5 6.6 49.2 5.4 0.0 -725.9 1,492.6

2022 2,162.6 8.0 48.5 6.2 0.0 -760.2 1,402.3

2023 2,096.4 9.5 47.8 7.0 0.0 -791.6 1,304.8

2024 2,020.7 11.1 47.1 7.9 0.0 -819.8 1,200.9

2025 1,936.1 12.8 46.3 8.8 0.0 -844.7 1,091.4

2026 1,843.3 14.6 45.5 9.7 0.0 -866.1 977.2

2027 1,743.3 16.5 44.8 10.7 0.0 -883.9 859.4

2028 1,637.0 18.4 44.1 11.7 0.0 -898.1 738.9

2029 1,525.4 20.5 43.4 12.7 16.0 -908.4 617.0

2030 1,409.4 22.6 42.7 13.7 113.4 -899.0 510.4

2031 1,289.5 24.8 42.0 14.7 114.7 -788.3 501.2

2032 1,166.5 27.0 41.3 15.8 112.9 -672.4 494.1

2033 1,041.2 29.2 40.7 16.9 108.1 -554.3 486.9

2034 914.6 31.5 40.0 18.0 106.4 -437.0 477.6

2035 787.2 33.7 39.4 19.1 98.9 -317.4 469.8

2036 659.9 36.0 38.8 20.2 94.6 -201.3 458.5

2037 533.0 38.2 38.2 21.3 90.3 -85.8 447.2

2038 407.2 40.2 37.6 22.4 86.1 29.2 436.4

2039 282.7 42.1 37.0 23.5 82.0 143.5 426.2

2040 159.8 43.9 36.5 24.6 75.4 257.3 417.1

2041 38.4 45.6 35.9 25.6 71.6 367.7 406.2

2042 -81.4 47.2 35.3 26.7 67.8 477.6 396.2

2043 -199.5 48.7 34.8 27.8 61.7 586.9 387.4

2044 -316.0 50.1 34.3 28.9 58.2 693.0 377.0

2045 -430.8 51.5 33.7 29.9 54.7 798.6 367.8

2046 -544.1 52.8 33.2 30.9 49.0 903.6 359.5

2047 -655.8 54.0 32.6 32.0 45.8 1,005.6 349.8

2048 -766.0 55.1 32.1 32.9 42.7 1,107.0 341.0

2049 -874.8 56.1 31.5 33.8 37.3 1,207.9 333.1

2050 -982.4 57.2 30.9 34.9 36.7 1,306.1 323.6

2051 -1,089.0 58.1 30.4 35.8 31.6 1,406.1 317.0

2052 -1,194.8 59.1 29.8 36.6 31.1 1,503.2 308.4

2053 -1,299.7 60.0 29.3 37.1 28.4 1,601.8 302.2

2054 -1,403.9 60.8 28.8 37.6 23.6 1,699.7 295.8

2055 -1,507.4 61.7 28.2 38.1 23.2 1,794.6 287.2

2056 -1,610.3 62.4 27.7 38.5 22.8 1,890.7 280.4

2057 -1,712.7 63.1 27.2 38.8 20.4 1,988.0 275.3

2058 -1,814.4 63.8 26.7 39.0 18.1 2,084.3 270.0

2059 -1,915.3 64.4 26.2 39.2 15.8 2,179.6 264.3

2060 -2,015.6 65.0 25.7 39.3 13.6 2,273.8 258.2

2061 -2,115.1 65.5 25.2 39.4 13.4 2,366.8 251.7

2062 -2,214.1 66.0 24.8 39.4 11.3 2,460.7 246.6

2063 -2,312.6 66.5 24.3 39.4 11.1 2,553.4 240.7

2064 -2,410.5 66.9 23.8 39.3 9.1 2,646.6 236.1

2065 -2,507.7 67.3 23.4 39.2 8.9 2,738.6 231.0

2066 -2,604.1 67.6 22.9 39.0 7.0 2,831.1 226.9

2067 -2,699.9 67.9 22.5 38.8 5.2 2,922.1 222.2

2068 -2,794.9 68.2 22.1 38.5 5.1 3,011.7 216.8

2069 -2,889.1 68.4 21.7 38.2 3.3 3,101.6 212.5

2070 -2,982.5 68.6 21.2 37.9 3.3 3,190.1 207.6

2071 -3,075.0 68.7 20.8 37.5 1.6 3,278.6 203.6

2072 -3,166.6 68.8 20.4 37.2 1.6 3,365.6 199.0

2073 -3,257.4 68.9 20.0 36.7 0.0 3,452.6 195.2

2074 -3,347.3 69.0 19.7 36.3 0.0 3,538.1 190.8

2075 -3,436.4 69.0 19.3 35.9 0.0 3,623.5 187.1

2076 -3,524.7 69.0 18.9 35.4 0.0 3,708.8 184.1

2077 -3,612.1 68.9 18.5 34.9 0.0 3,793.9 181.9

2078 -3,698.7 68.9 18.2 34.4 0.0 3,878.9 180.3

Total 2004-78 2,867.2 2,581.3 1,671.1 1,933.7

 Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report

 With Ultimate Real Trust Fund Interest Rate of 3.0% Office of the Actuary

Benefit Offset Real Yield Rate Set at 3.0% Social Security Administration

Benefit Offset Real Discount Rate Set at 3.0% February 7, 2005
Table B1. Pozen Plan--Intended Benefit Offset, IA annuity, and Proposal OASDI Benefit Before Offset

Estimates as Percent of PL Scheduled Benefit--IA Contrib start 2007 at 2% to$3,000(CPI-indexed) for those under 55 on Jan 1

Single Married 1-earner M

Intended IA with IA with OASDI Intended IA with IA with OASDI Intended 

Offset Low Yld* ExpYld** Benefit Offset Low Yld* ExpYld** Benefit Offset 

IA Yld 3 2.7 4.92 Before 3 2.7 4.92 Before 3 

Ann Yld 3 2.7 3 Offset 3 2.7 3 Offset 3 

Year Attain

Age 65 Scaled Low Earner Scaled Low Earner Sc

2015 2.0 1.9 2.0 100.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 100.0 1.8 2025 6.1 5.8 7.0 100.0 3.8 3.6 4.3 100.0 5.7 2035 10.8 9.9 13.6 100.0 6.8 6.3 8.6 100.0 10.0 2045 15.2 13.9 21.4 100.0 9.6 8.7 13.5 100.0 14.3 2055 16.8 15.2 24.7 100.0 10.6 9.6 15.6 100.0 15.8 2075 16.8 15.2 24.7 100.0 10.6 9.6 15.6 100.0 15.8 

Scaled Medium Earner Scaled Medium Earner Sc

2015 2.7 2.5 2.7 99.3 1.7 1.6 1.7 99.3 2.5 2025 8.3 7.8 9.4 93.6 5.1 4.8 5.8 93.6 7.7 2035 14.5 13.4 18.3 88.5 9.1 8.4 11.6 88.5 13.5 2045 20.6 18.7 28.8 83.6 13.0 11.8 18.2 83.6 19.2 2055 22.7 20.5 33.3 79.4 14.4 13.0 21.0 79.4 21.3 2075 22.7 20.5 33.3 72.1 14.4 13.0 21.0 72.1 21.3 

Scaled High Earner Scaled High Earner Sc

2015 3.2 3.1 3.3 99.0 2.0 1.9 2.1 99.0 3.0 2025 10.0 9.4 11.3 90.4 6.2 5.8 7.0 90.4 9.3 2035 17.5 16.2 22.1 82.7 11.0 10.2 13.9 82.7 16.3 2045 24.8 22.6 34.8 75.5 15.7 14.2 22.0 75.5 23.2 2055 27.4 24.8 40.1 69.0 17.3 15.6 25.4 69.0 25.6 2075 27.4 24.8 40.1 58.2 17.3 15.6 25.4 58.2 25.6 

Steady Maximum Earner Steady Maximum Earner St

2015 5.0 4.8 5.1 98.8 3.1 3.0 3.2 98.8 4.6 2025 12.9 12.1 14.4 88.7 8.0 7.5 9.0 88.7 12.0 2035 21.6 20.0 26.9 79.5 13.6 12.6 17.0 79.5 20.1 2045 31.7 28.8 44.5 71.0 20.0 18.2 28.1 71.0 29.6 2055 36.9 33.3 55.3 63.4 23.4 21.0 35.0 63.4 34.6 2075 34.7 31.2 52.8 50.7 22.0 19.7 33.4 50.7 32.5 

* Assuming low, or risk adjusted, yield on all assets at expected yield for long-term Treasury Bonds Ba

** Required portfolio under the Proposal: 60% Equity, 24% Corporate Bond, 16% Treasury Bond; less equity after 57 (20% at 61+). Note: IA is assumed to be used completely to purchase a CPI-indexed life annuity (joint ans 2/3 survivor for couple.). Career average earnings-- Low-26th percentile, Medium-57th percentile, High-85th percentile OC
Table B2. Pozen Plan--Proposal OASDI Benefit Before Offset; Retiree Benefit with Offset and IA Annuity

Estimates as Percent of PL Scheduled Benefit--IA Contrib start 2007 at 2% to$3,000(CPI-indexed) for those under 55 on Jan 1

Single Married 1-earner M

OASDI Total OASI Benefit OASDI Total OASI Benefit OASDI 

Benefit Less Offset, Plus IA Benefit Less Offset, Plus IA Benefit 

IA Yld Before IA with IA with Before IA with IA with Before 

Ann Yld Offset Low Yld* ExpYld** Offset Low Yld* ExpYld** Offset 

Year Attain

Age 65 Scaled Low Earner Scaled Low Earner Sc

2015 100.0 99.9 100.1 100.0 99.9 100.0 100.0 2025 100.0 99.6 100.8 100.0 99.8 100.5 100.0 2035 100.0 99.2 102.8 100.0 99.5 101.8 100.0 2045 100.0 98.6 106.1 100.0 99.1 103.9 100.0 2055 100.0 98.4 107.8 100.0 99.0 105.0 100.0 2075 100.0 98.4 107.8 100.0 99.0 105.0 100.0 

Scaled Medium Earner Scaled Medium Earner Sc

2015 99.3 99.2 99.4 99.3 99.3 99.4 99.3 2025 93.6 93.1 94.7 93.6 93.3 94.3 93.6 2035 88.5 87.4 92.3 88.5 87.7 90.9 88.5 2045 83.6 81.8 91.9 83.6 82.5 88.9 83.6 2055 79.4 77.2 89.9 79.4 78.0 86.0 79.4 2075 72.1 70.0 82.7 72.1 70.7 78.8 72.1 

Scaled High Earner Scaled High Earner Sc

2015 99.0 98.9 99.1 99.0 98.9 99.1 99.0 2025 90.4 89.8 91.8 90.4 90.0 91.3 90.4 2035 82.7 81.3 87.3 82.7 81.8 85.6 82.7 2045 75.5 73.2 85.4 75.5 74.0 81.8 75.5 2055 69.0 66.4 81.8 69.0 67.3 77.1 69.0 2075 58.2 55.6 71.0 58.2 56.5 66.3 58.2 

Steady Maximum Earner Steady Maximum Earner St

2015 98.8 98.6 99.0 98.8 98.7 98.9 98.8 2025 88.7 88.0 90.3 88.7 88.2 89.7 88.7 2035 79.5 78.0 84.9 79.5 78.5 82.9 79.5 2045 71.0 68.2 83.9 71.0 69.2 79.2 71.0 2055 63.4 59.8 81.8 63.4 61.1 75.1 63.4 2075 50.7 47.2 68.7 50.7 48.4 62.1 50.7 

* Assuming low, or risk adjusted, yield on all assets at expected yield for long-term Treasury Bonds of 3 percent real.** Required portfolio under the Proposal: 60% Equity, 24% Corporate Bond, 16% Treasury Bond; less equity after 57 (20% at 61+). Ba

Net real yield 4.92 after admin charge of 0.3 percent. 

Note: IA is assumed to be used completely to purchase a CPI-indexed life annuity (joint ans 2/3 survivor for couple.). Career average earnings-- Low-26th percentile, Medium-57th percentile, High-85th percentile OC