Long-range 

actuarial 

balance

Annual 

balance in 

75th year

Long-range 

actuarial 

balance

Annual 

balance in 

75th year

Long-range 

actuarial 

balance

Annual 

balance in 

75th year

B1.6 

(2025)

2021 -3.54 -4.34 1.46 3.74 41% 86%

B1.6 

(2030)

2021 -3.54 -4.34 1.23 3.51 35% 81%

B1.7 2021 -3.54 -4.34 1.03 2.48 29% 57%

Progressive price indexing (30th percentile) of PIA factors 

beginning with individuals newly eligible for OASI benefits in 

2025: Create a new bend point at the 30th percentile of the AIME 

distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law 

benefits for earners at the 30th percentile and below. Reduce the 

32 and 15 percent factors above the 30th percentile such that the 

initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable 

maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth in the SSA 

average wage index. Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior 

to normal retirement age; and (b) subject to a proportional 

reduction in benefits, based on the worker's years of disability, 

upon conversion to retired-worker beneficiary status. Young 

survivors (children of deceased workers and surviving spouses 

with a child in care) are not affected.

Progressive price indexing (30th percentile) of PIA factors 

beginning with individuals newly eligible for OASI benefits in 

2030: Create a new bend point at the 30th percentile of the AIME 

distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law 

benefits for earners at the 30th percentile and below. Reduce the 

32 and 15 percent factors above the 30th percentile such that the 

initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable 

maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth in the SSA 

average wage index. Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior 

to normal retirement age; and (b) subject to a proportional 

reduction in benefits, based on the worker's years of disability, 

upon conversion to retired-worker beneficiary status.

Progressive price indexing (40th percentile) of PIA factors for 

individuals newly eligible for OASI benefits in 2029 through 

2066: Create a new bend point at the 40th percentile of the AIME 

distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law 

benefits for earners at the 40th percentile and below. Reduce the 

32 and 15 percent factors above the 40th percentile such that the 

initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable 

maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth in the SSA 

average wage index. Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior 

to normal retirement age; and (b) subject to a proportional 

reduction in benefits, based on the worker's years of disability, 

upon conversion to retired-worker beneficiary status. Young 

survivors (children of deceased workers and surviving spouses 

with a child in care) are not affected.

Category B: Level of Monthly Benefits 

Description of proposed provisions

Change from current 

law

 

Current law Shortfall eliminated

Year of (percent of payroll)

Trustees 

Report 

Baseline

2

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Based on Trustees Report Intermediate Assumptions
Long-range 

actuarial 

balance

Annual 

balance in 

75th year

Long-range 

actuarial 

balance

Annual 

balance in 

75th year

Long-range 

actuarial 

balance

Annual 

balance in 

75th year

B1.8 2021 -3.54 -4.34 0.98 2.23 28% 51%

B3.1 2017 -2.83 -4.48 1.54 2.96 54% 66%

B3.2 2017 -2.83 -4.48 2.05 5.26 72% 117%

B3.3 2017 -2.83 -4.48 0.22 0.29 8% 7%

B3.4 2017 -2.83 -4.48 1.50 3.15 53% 70%

Progressive price indexing (50th percentile) of PIA factors for 

individuals newly eligible for OASI benefits in 2026 through 

2065: Create a new bend point at the 50th percentile of the AIME 

distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law 

benefits for earners at the 50th percentile and below. Reduce the 

32 and 15 percent factors above the 50th percentile such that the 

initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable 

maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth in the SSA 

average wage index. Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior 

to normal retirement age; and (b) subject to a proportional 

reduction in benefits, based on the worker's years of disability, 

upon conversion to retired-worker beneficiary status.

Beginning with those newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2021, 

multiply all PIA factors each year by 0.991. Stop reductions after 

2049. Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior to normal 

retirement age; and (b) subject to a proportional reduction in 

benefits, based on the worker's years of disability, upon 

conversion to retired-worker beneficiary status. Young survivors 

(children of deceased workers and surviving spouses with a child 

in care) are not affected.

Shortfall eliminated

Beginning with those newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2018, 

multiply the 32 and 15 percent PIA factors each year by 0.987. 

Stop reductions after 2048, when the factors reach 21 percent 

and 10 percent, respectively.

Beginning with those newly eligible for OASI benefits in 2025, 

multiply the 90 and 32 percent PIA factors each year by 0.9925 

and 0.982, respectively. Stop reductions after 2062. Beginning 

with those newly eligible for OASI benefits in 2020, multiply the 

15 factor by 0.982. Stop reduction of the 15 factor after 2057. 

Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior to normal retirement 

age; and (b) subject to a proportional reduction in benefits, based 

on the worker's years of disability, upon conversion to retiredworker beneficiary status. Child beneficiaries and spouses with a 

child in care under the OASI program are not affected by this 

proposal.

Beginning with those newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2018, 

use a modified primary insurance amount (PIA) formula. The 

modified formula: (1) increases the first bend point to the 

equivalent of $800 in 2009 (about $952 in 2017); (2) places a new 

bend point 75 percent of the way between the reset first bend 

point and the current-law second bend point; (3) lowers the PIA 

factor between the new bend point and the upper bend point 

from 32 percent to 20 percent; and (4) lowers the factor above 

the upper bend point from 15 percent to 10 percent.

Category B: Level of Monthly Benefits (continued)

Description of proposed provisions

Year of 

Trustees 

Report 

Baseline

Current law

(percent of payroll)

Change from current 

law

 

3

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Based on Trustees Report Intermediate Assumptions
Long-range 

actuarial 

balance

Annual 

balance in 

75th year

Long-range 

actuarial 

balance

Annual 

balance in 

75th year

Long-range 

actuarial 

balance

Annual 

balance in 

75th year

B3.5 2017 -2.83 -4.48 1.33 3.11 47% 69%

B3.6 2017 -2.83 -4.48 1.41 3.57 50% 80%

B3.7 2017 -2.83 -4.48 0.61 1.60 22% 36%

B7.1 2017 -2.83 -4.48 0.37 0.51 13% 11%

B7.4 2017 -2.83 -4.48 -0.31 -0.34 -11% -7%

Progressive indexing (30th percentile) of PIA factors beginning 

with individuals newly eligible for OASI benefits in 2020, 

continuing through 2057, and resuming in 2078: Create a new 

bend point at the 30th percentile of the AIME distribution of 

newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefits for earners 

at the 30th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent 

factors above the 30th percentile such that the initial benefit for a 

worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum is reduced by 

1.20 percent per year as compared to current law (for the years 

that progressive indexing applies). Disabled workers are: (a) not 

affected prior to normal retirement age; and (b) subject to a 

proportional reduction in benefits, based on the worker's years of 

disability, upon conversion to retired-worker beneficiary status.

Progressive indexing (30th percentile) of PIA factors beginning 

with individuals newly eligible for OASI benefits in 2020, 

continuing through 2069: Create a new bend point at the 30th 

percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. 

Maintain current-law benefits for earners at the 30th percentile 

and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent factors above the 30th 

percentile such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME 

equal to the taxable maximum is reduced by 1.20 percent per 

year as compared to current law (for the years that progressive 

indexing applies). Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior to 

normal retirement age; and (b) subject to a proportional reduction 

in benefits, based on the worker's years of disability, upon 

conversion to retired-worker beneficiary status.

Progressive indexing (30th percentile) of PIA factors beginning 

with individuals newly eligible for OASI benefits in 2020, 

continuing through 2029, and resuming in 2068: Create a new 

bend point at the 30th percentile of the AIME distribution of 

newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefits for earners 

at the 30th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent 

factors above the 30th percentile such that the initial benefit for a 

worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum is reduced by 

1.20 percent per year as compared to current law (for the years 

that progressive indexing applies). Disabled workers are: (a) not 

affected prior to normal retirement age; and (b) subject to a 

proportional reduction in benefits, based on the worker's years of 

disability, upon conversion to retired-worker beneficiary status.

Reduce benefits by 3 percent for those newly eligible for benefits 

in 2018 and later.

Increase benefits by 2 percent for all beneficiaries as of the 

beginning of 2018 and for those newly eligible for benefits after 

the beginning of 2018.

Category B: Level of Monthly Benefits (continued)

Description of proposed provisions

Year of 

Trustees 

Report 

Baseline

Current law

(percent of payroll)

Change from current 

law

 

Shortfall eliminated

4

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Based on Trustees Report Intermediate Assumptions
Long-range 

actuarial 

balance

Annual 

balance in 

75th year

Long-range 

actuarial 

balance

Annual 

balance in 

75th year

Long-range 

actuarial 

balance

Annual 

balance in 

75th year

B7.6 2017 -2.83 -4.48 -3.10 -3.36 -110% -75%

Long-range 

actuarial 

balance

Annual 

balance in 

75th year

Long-range 

actuarial 

balance

Annual 

balance in 

75th year

Long-range 

actuarial 

balance

Annual 

balance in 

75th year

C1.5 2021 -3.54 -4.34 0.69 1.21 20% 28%

Long-range 

actuarial 

balance

Annual 

balance in 

75th year

Long-range 

actuarial 

balance

Annual 

balance in 

75th year

Long-range 

actuarial 

balance

Annual 

balance in 

75th year

E1.3 2017 -2.83 -4.48 -0.97 -1.01 -34% -23%

E1.5 2017 -2.83 -4.48 0.76 0.91 27% 20%

E1.6 2017 -2.83 -4.48 1.07 2.07 38% 46%

E1.7 2017 -2.83 -4.48 0.88 2.25 31% 50%

E2.3 2021 3.54 4.34 2.34 2.38 66% 55%

Description of proposed provisions

Change from current 

law

 

Shortfall eliminated

Eliminate the taxable maximum in years 2022 and later, and 

apply full 12.4 percent payroll tax rate to all earnings. Provide 

benefit credit for earnings above the current-law taxable 

maximum. Create a new bend point at the current-law taxable 

maximum with a 3 percent formula factor applying above the new 

bend point.

Year of 

Trustees 

Report 

Baseline

Current law

(percent of payroll)

Description of proposed provisions

Change from current 

law

 

Reduce the payroll tax rate (currently 12.4 percent) to 11.4 

percent in 2018 and later.

Increase the payroll tax rate (currently 12.4 percent) to 12.6 

percent in 2020, 12.9 percent in 2028, 13.1 in percent in 2038, 

13.9 percent in 2048, 13.5 percent in 2058, and 13.3 percent in 

2068 and later.

Increase the payroll tax rate (currently 12.4 percent) to 12.6 

percent in 2020, 12.9 percent in 2028, 13.3 in percent in 2038, 

13.8 percent in 2048, 14.4 percent in 2068, and 14.5 percent in 

2083 and later.

Increase the payroll tax rate (currently 12.4 percent) to 12.7 

percent in 2020, 13.0 percent in 2033, 13.3 in percent in 2048, 

14.0 percent in 2068, 14.5 percent in 2078, and 14.7 percent in 

2088 and later.

Shortfall eliminated

Starting in 2022, allow workers to choose whether to have their 

payroll tax rate reduced by 2 percentage points. For each calendar 

year that a worker chooses to have their payroll tax reduced, their 

normal retirement age (NRA) increases 1 month. We assume 2/3 

of workers each year will choose this payroll reduction. The 

General Fund of the Treasury reimburses the OASI and DI Trust 

Funds for the reduction in payroll tax revenue.

Category E: Payroll Taxes (including maximum taxable) 

Year of 

Trustees 

Report 

Baseline

Current law

(percent of payroll)

Category C: Retirement Age 

Increase benefits by 20 percent for all beneficiaries as of the 

beginning of 2018 and for those newly eligible for benefits after 

the beginning of 2018.

Category B: Level of Monthly Benefits (continued)

Description of proposed provisions

Year of 

Trustees 

Report 

Baseline

Current law

(percent of payroll)

Change from current 

law

 

Shortfall eliminated

5

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Based on Trustees Report Intermediate Assumptions
Long-range 

actuarial 

balance

Annual 

balance in 

75th year

Long-range 

actuarial 

balance

Annual 

balance in 

75th year

Long-range 

actuarial 

balance

Annual 

balance in 

75th year

E2.6 2021 -3.54 -4.34 0.66 0.70 19% 16%

E2.7 2017 -2.83 -4.48 1.19 1.25 42% 28%

E2.8 2021 -3.54 -4.34 0.49 0.69 14% 16%

E2.9 2017 -2.83 -4.48 0.71 1.14 25% 25%

E2.10 2017 -2.83 -4.48 1.91 2.05 68% 46%

E3.3 2017 -2.83 -4.48 0.77 0.64 27% 14%

E3.4 2017 -2.83 -4.48 0.11 0.08 4% 2%

Long-range 

actuarial 

balance

Annual 

balance in 

75th year

Long-range 

actuarial 

balance

Annual 

balance in 

75th year

Long-range 

actuarial 

balance

Annual 

balance in 

75th year

F5 2021 -3.54 -4.34 -0.01 0.17 -0% 4%

Category F: Coverage of Employment or Earnings, or Inclusion of Other Sources of Revenue 

Description of proposed provisions

Change from current 

law

 

Shortfall eliminated

Tax Reform for Business: Establish a value added tax (VAT) of 3.0 

percent for 2023 and 6.5 percent for 2024 and later. Assume 

about 75% of personal consumption expenditures is subject to the 

VAT.

Year of 

Trustees 

Report 

Baseline

Current law

(percent of payroll)

Apply a 3 percent payroll tax on earnings above the current-law 

taxable maximum starting in 2022. Do not provide benefit credit 

for earnings above the current-law taxable maximum.

Apply a 2 percent payroll tax on earnings above the current-law 

taxable maximum for years 2024-2071, and a 3 percent rate for 

years 2072 and later. Do not provide benefit credit for earnings 

above the current-law taxable maximum.

Apply a 6 percent payroll tax on earnings above the current-law 

taxable maximum starting in 2018. Do not provide benefit credit 

for earnings above the current-law taxable maximum.

Category E: Payroll Taxes (including maximum taxable) (continued)

Description of proposed provisions

Year of 

Trustees 

Report 

Baseline

Current law

(percent of payroll)

Change from current 

law

 

Shortfall eliminated

Apply the following payroll tax rates above the current-law 

taxable maximum: 2.0 percent in 2020, 3.0 percent in 2033, 3.5 

percent in 2048, 4.5 percent in 2058, and 5.5 percent in 2068 and 

later. Do not provide benefit credit for earnings above the currentlaw taxable maximum.

Eliminate the taxable maximum in years 2028 and later. Phase in 

elimination by taxing all earnings above the current-law taxable 

maximum at: 1.24 percent in 2019, 2.48 percent in 2020, and so 

on, up to 12.40 percent in 2028. Provide benefit credit for 

earnings above the current-law taxable maximum. Create a new 

bend point at the current-law taxable maximum with a 5 percent 

formula factor applying above the new bend point.

Increase the taxable maximum such that 90 percent of earnings 

would be subject to the payroll tax (phased in 2019-2024). 

Provide benefit credit for earnings up to the revised taxable 

maximum.

Increase the taxable maximum from $106,800 to $115,200 (in 

2009 AWI-indexed dollars), or from $142,200 to $153,300 in 

2020, phased in 2018-2020. Provide benefit credit for earnings up 

to the revised taxable maximum.

6

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Based on Trustees Report Intermediate Assumptions
Long-range 

actuarial 

balance

Annual 

balance in 

75th year

Long-range 

actuarial 

balance

Annual 

balance in 

75th year

Long-range 

actuarial 

balance

Annual 

balance in 

75th year

H1 2017 -2.83 -4.48 0.20 0.15 7% 3%

H3 Starting in 2023, modify personal income tax by: (a) establishing 2021 -3.54 -4.34 -0.04 -0.09 -1% -2%

two-brackets with marginal rates of 15 and 27 percent separated 

at $51,000 (CPI indexed); (b) creating a non-refundable credit for 

low-income tax filers age 65 and older; and (c) treating capital 

gains as regular income. Tax all Social Security benefits at the 

applicable marginal rate (15 or 27 percent) less 7.5 percent, with 

60 percent of this revenue going to OASDI and 40 percent going 

to HI.

Year of 

Trustees 

Report 

Baseline

Current law

(percent of payroll)

Category H: Taxation of Benefits

Description of proposed provisions

Change from current 

law

 

Shortfall eliminated

Starting in 2018, tax Social Security benefits in a manner similar to 

private pension income. Phase out the lower-income thresholds 

during 2018-2027.

7

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Based on Trustees Report Intermediate Assumptions