SOCIAL SECURITY 

November 5, 2015 

The Honorable Elizabeth Warren

United States Senate

Washington, D.C. 20510

Dear Senator Warren: 

I am writing in response to your request for our estimate of the financial effects on the Old Age and 

Survivors Insurance (OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Funds of enactment of the 

"Seniors and Veterans Emergency (SAVE) Benefits Act" which you introduced today. This Bill 

would provide for a one-time payment in 2016 (not more than 120 days following enactment) to all 

individuals entitled to receive an OASDI monthly benefit for any month in the 3-month period 

ending with the month prior to the month of enactment of this Bill. The one-time benefit would 

also be payable to certain individuals not entitled for OASDI benefits who are entitled to monthly 

Railroad Retirement benefits, Veterans benefits, State and Local government employee pensions, 

or SSI benefits. The one-time payment would be set at 3.9 percent of the average annualized 

amount paid to individuals entitled to OASDI benefits in 2015. The one-time payment would not 

be included in taxable income nor would it be included for the purpose of applying the family 

maximum benefit limitation under OASDI. 

At this time, we estimate that the one-time payment would be $581, based on the intermediate 

projections in the 2015 Trustees Report. We project that about 71 million individuals would 

receive the one-time payment early in 2016, assuming enactment in November or December of 

2015. The total expenditure from the General Fund of the Treasury to make these payments would 

be about $41.25 billion, plus the reimbursed expense of making the payments by the agencies 

administering the programs. 

The proposal would further modify the limitation on excessive remuneration, repealing 

performance-based compensation and commission exceptions in section 162(m) of the Internal 

Revenue Code of 1986, for tax years beginning after December 31, 2015. The resulting increase 

in tax revenue would be retained in the General Fund of the Treasury up to the point where the cost 

of making the one-time payments in 2016 is fully offset. Thereafter, the increase in tax revenue 

would be transferred to the OASI and DI Trust Funds in equal shares. Our very preliminary 

estimate is that the cost of the one-time payments would be fully offset by about the end of 2023, 

with transfers to the OASI and DI Trust Funds commencing that year. Over the long-range 75-

year projection period, we estimate that the additional revenue provided to the combined OASI and 

DI Trust Funds would improve the OASDI actuarial balance by 0.05 percent of taxable payroll, 

reducing the actuarial deficit for the OASDI program from 2.68 percent of payroll (the present-law 

actuarial deficit projected under the intermediate assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report) to 2.63 

percent of taxable payroll. 
Page 2 – The Honorable Elizabeth Warren

The enclosed Table 1 provides our projection of the annual cost and income of the OASDI program 

expressed as a percent of taxable payroll under this proposal and the change from current law 

assuming enactment of the proposal. 

We have enjoyed working with members of your staff in the development of this proposal. 

Members of the Office of the Chief Actuary who contributed to the development of the estimates 

include Karen Glenn, Christopher Chaplain, Bob Weathers, Dan Nickerson, and Sven Sinclair. 

We hope these estimates will be helpful. Please let us know if we may provide further assistance.

Sincerely,

 

Stephen C. Goss

Chief Actuary

Enclosure 

 
Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2015 14.13 12.82 -1.31 308 0.00 0.00 0.00

2016 13.88 12.88 -1.00 298 0.00 0.00 0.00

2017 13.89 12.91 -0.98 280 0.00 0.00 0.00

2018 13.97 12.94 -1.03 264 0.00 0.00 0.00

2019 14.09 12.95 -1.14 248 0.00 0.00 0.00

2020 14.23 12.96 -1.26 233 0.00 0.00 0.00

2021 14.35 12.98 -1.36 219 0.00 0.00 0.00

2022 14.52 13.01 -1.51 204 0.00 0.00 0.00

2023 14.72 13.04 -1.69 189 0.00 0.01 0.01

2024 14.96 13.12 -1.83 173 0.00 0.06 0.06

2025 15.16 13.14 -2.02 158 0.00 0.06 0.06

2026 15.36 13.16 -2.20 143 0.00 0.06 0.06

2027 15.56 13.17 -2.38 127 0.00 0.06 0.06

2028 15.75 13.19 -2.56 112 0.00 0.06 0.06

2029 15.93 13.20 -2.73 96 0.00 0.06 0.06

2030 16.10 13.22 -2.88 80 0.00 0.06 0.06

2031 16.24 13.23 -3.01 63 0.00 0.06 0.06

2032 16.37 13.24 -3.13 45 0.00 0.06 0.06

2033 16.48 13.25 -3.23 26 0.00 0.06 0.06

2034 16.55 13.25 -3.30 8 0.00 0.06 0.06

2035 16.62 13.26 -3.36 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2036 16.68 13.27 -3.41 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2037 16.72 13.27 -3.45 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2038 16.73 13.27 -3.46 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2039 16.73 13.28 -3.45 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2040 16.71 13.28 -3.43 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2041 16.69 13.28 -3.41 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2042 16.67 13.28 -3.39 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2043 16.64 13.28 -3.36 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2044 16.62 13.28 -3.34 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2045 16.60 13.28 -3.32 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2046 16.57 13.28 -3.29 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2047 16.56 13.28 -3.28 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2048 16.55 13.28 -3.27 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2049 16.54 13.28 -3.26 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2050 16.54 13.28 -3.26 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2051 16.55 13.28 -3.27 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2052 16.57 13.29 -3.29 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2053 16.60 13.29 -3.31 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2054 16.64 13.29 -3.35 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2055 16.69 13.30 -3.39 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2056 16.74 13.30 -3.44 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2057 16.79 13.30 -3.49 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2058 16.85 13.31 -3.54 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2059 16.90 13.31 -3.59 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2060 16.95 13.32 -3.64 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2061 17.00 13.32 -3.68 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2062 17.06 13.32 -3.73 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2063 17.11 13.33 -3.78 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2064 17.16 13.33 -3.83 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2065 17.22 13.33 -3.88 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2066 17.27 13.34 -3.94 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2067 17.33 13.34 -3.99 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2068 17.39 13.35 -4.04 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2069 17.45 13.35 -4.10 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2070 17.50 13.35 -4.15 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2071 17.55 13.36 -4.20 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2072 17.60 13.36 -4.24 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2073 17.63 13.36 -4.27 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2074 17.66 13.36 -4.30 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2075 17.68 13.37 -4.32 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2076 17.70 13.37 -4.33 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.06

2077 17.70 13.37 -4.34 ---- 0.00 0.06 0.07

2078 17.71 13.37 -4.34 ---- 0.00 0.07 0.07

2079 17.71 13.37 -4.34 ---- 0.00 0.07 0.07

2080 17.71 13.37 -4.34 ---- 0.00 0.07 0.07

2081 17.71 13.37 -4.35 ---- 0.00 0.07 0.07

2082 17.73 13.37 -4.36 ---- 0.00 0.07 0.07

2083 17.75 13.37 -4.38 ---- 0.00 0.07 0.07

2084 17.78 13.37 -4.40 ---- 0.00 0.07 0.07

2085 17.81 13.37 -4.43 ---- 0.00 0.07 0.07

2086 17.85 13.38 -4.47 ---- 0.00 0.07 0.07

2087 17.89 13.38 -4.51 ---- 0.00 0.07 0.07

2088 17.93 13.38 -4.55 ---- 0.00 0.07 0.07

2089 17.97 13.38 -4.59 ---- 0.00 0.07 0.07

2090 18.01 13.39 -4.63 ---- 0.00 0.07 0.07

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

16.55% 13.92% -2.63% 2034 0.00% 0.05% 0.05%

1 Under present law the year of combined Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034.

Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

Preliminary Estimated Effects of "Seniors and Veterans Emergency (SAVE) Benefits Act" Introduced by Senator Elizabeth Warren on November 5, 2015

Proposal Change from Present Law

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll

November 5, 2015

Summarized Rates: OASDI

Year of reserve 

depletion1

Summarized Rates: OASDI

2015 - 2089

Office of the Chief Actuary

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration