SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE, MD 21235-0001

SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

January 25, 2024 

The Honorable Angie Craig

United States House of Representatives

Washington, D.C. 20515 

Dear Representative Craig: 

I am writing in response to your request for our estimates of the financial effects on Social 

Security of enacting the You Earned It, You Keep It Act, which you introduced today. The

estimates provided here reflect the intermediate assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report. 

This Bill (hereafter referred to as the proposal) includes two provisions with direct effects on the 

Social Security trust funds. We have enjoyed working with Meghan Mullon of your staff in 

gaining a full understanding of the intent of the proposal. The estimates and analysis provided 

here reflect the combined effort of many in the Office of the Chief Actuary, but most particularly 

Karen Glenn, Christopher Chaplain, Daniel Nickerson, Kyle Burkhalter, Anna Kirjusina, Katie 

Sutton, and Tiffany Bosley. 

The enclosed tables provide estimates of the effects of the two provisions on the cost, income, 

and combined trust fund reserves for the Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) 

program, as well as estimated effects on retired worker benefit levels for selected hypothetical 

workers and effects on payroll tax levels. In addition, tables 1b and 1b.n provide estimates of the 

federal budget implications of these two provisions with direct effects on the OASDI program. 

We estimate that enactment of these provisions would extend the ability of the OASDI program 

to pay scheduled benefits in full and on time for an additional 20 years. That is, the date of 

projected depletion of the combined OASI and DI Trust Fund reserves would be moved from 

2034 under current law to 2054 assuming enactment of the proposal, under the intermediate 

assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report.

The proposal includes two provisions with direct effects on the OASDI program. The following 

list briefly describes these provisions: 

Section 2. Repeal taxation of Social Security benefits effective in 2025, but hold the OASDI 

and Medicare Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Funds harmless. Under current law, Social 

Security beneficiaries are taxed on their personal income tax returns on up to 85 percent of 

their Social Security benefits, based on total income measures. This provision would repeal 

taxation of Social Security benefits, but would provide for transfers from the General Fund of 
Page 2 – The Honorable Angie Craig

the Treasury to the OASI, DI, and HI Trust Funds of amounts equivalent to the projected 

amounts of revenue that would have been realized from taxation of benefits in the absence of 

this provision.

Section 3. Apply the combined OASDI payroll tax rate on covered earnings above $250,000 

paid in 2025 and later. Tax all covered earnings once the current-law taxable maximum 

exceeds $250,000. Increase the computed level of the AWI for years after 2024 by amounts 

ranging from 0.6 percent for 2025 to 0.9 percent for 2034 and later. Credit the additional 

earnings that are taxed for benefit purposes by: (a) calculating a second average indexed 

monthly earnings (“AIME+”) reflecting only additional earnings taxed above the current-law 

taxable maximum, (b) applying a 2-percent factor on this newly computed “AIME+” to 

develop a second component of the PIA, and (c) adding this second component to the currentlaw PIA.

The balance of this letter provides a summary of the effects of the two provisions on the actuarial 

status of the OASDI program, our understanding of the specifications and intent of each of the 

two provisions, and descriptions of our detailed financial estimates for trust fund operations, 

benefit levels, and implications for the federal budget. See the “Specification for Provisions of 

the Proposal” section of this letter for a more detailed description of these two provisions. 

Summary of Effects of the Proposal on OASDI Actuarial Status

Figure 1 illustrates the projected OASDI Trust Fund ratio through 2097 under current law and 

assuming enactment of the proposal. This trust fund ratio is defined as the combined OASI and 

DI Trust Fund reserves expressed as a percent of annual program cost. Assuming enactment of 

the proposal, the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds are expected to be able to pay scheduled 

benefits in full and on time for an additional 20 years, under the intermediate assumptions of the 

2023 Trustees Report. 
Page 3 – The Honorable Angie Craig

Note: Trust Fund Ratio for a given year is the ratio of reserves in the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds at the 

beginning of the year to the cost of the program for the year.

Under current law, 80 percent of scheduled benefits are projected to be payable on a timely basis 

in 2034 after depletion of the combined trust fund reserves, with the percentage payable 

declining to 74 percent for 2097. Under the proposal, 91 percent of scheduled benefits are 

projected to be payable on a timely basis in 2054 after depletion of the combined trust fund 

reserves, with the percentage payable declining to 88 percent for 2097. 

Enactment of the two provisions of this proposal would decrease the long-range OASDI actuarial 

deficit from 3.61 percent of taxable payroll under current law to 1.30 percent of payroll under the 

proposal. 

Figure 2 illustrates annual projected levels of cost, expenditures, and non-interest income as a 

percentage of the current-law taxable payroll. The projected level of cost reflects the full cost of 

scheduled benefits under both current law and the proposal. After trust fund reserve depletion, 

projected expenditures under current law and under the proposal include only amounts payable 

from projected tax revenues (non-interest income), which are less than projected cost. 

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2023 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Trust Fund Ratio

Figure 1. Current-Law and Proposal OASDI Trust Fund Reserves as Percent 

of Annual Cost: 2023 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Current-Law Trust Fund Ratio

Proposal
Page 4 – The Honorable Angie Craig

OASDI program annual cost under the proposal is very slightly smaller than under current law 

from 2026 through 2029. Starting in 2030, OASDI program annual cost is higher than under 

current law. This difference between proposal and current-law cost generally increases gradually 

to 0.1 percent of current-law taxable payroll for 2048 and to 0.2 percent of current-law taxable 

payroll for 2097. Beginning in 2025, non-interest income under the proposal is projected to be 

higher than under current law. This difference between proposal and current-law income 

increases from 1.7 percent of current-law taxable payroll for 2025 to 2.5 percent of current-law 

taxable payroll for 2035, and thereafter increases much more gradually, reaching 2.6 percent of 

current-law taxable payroll for 2097. For 2025 and later, the proposal improves the annual 

balance (non-interest income minus program cost). 

It is also useful to consider the projected cost, expenditures, and income for the OASDI program 

expressed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Figure 3 illustrates these levels 

under both current law and the proposal. 

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

2023 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Percent of Current-Law Taxable Payroll

Figure 2. Proposal and Current-Law Cost, Expenditures, and Non-Interest 

Income as Percent of Taxable Payroll: 2023 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Current-Law Cost

Current-Law Non-Interest Income

Current-Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Non-Interest Income

Proposal Expenditures
Page 5 – The Honorable Angie Craig

Specification for and Effects of Provisions of the Proposal 

Section 2. Repeal taxation of Social Security benefits effective in 2025, but hold the 

OASDI and Medicare Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Funds harmless.

Under current law, single tax filers with combined “income” (approximately equal to adjusted 

gross income plus non-taxable interest income and one-half of their Social Security benefit) 

greater than $25,000 may have to pay income tax on up to 50 percent of their Social Security 

benefits. If combined “income” exceeds $34,000, up to 85 percent of benefits may be taxable. 

The income tax revenue for taxing up to 50 percent of Social Security benefits is credited to the 

OASI and DI Trust Funds. The additional income tax revenue derived from taxing benefits in 

excess of 50 percent, up to 85 percent, is credited to the HI Trust Fund. The process is similar for 

joint tax filers, with $32,000 and $44,000 thresholds applying for possible taxation of up to 50 

percent or 85 percent of the Social Security benefits, respectively. All threshold levels are fixed 

amounts and not indexed to price inflation or the AWI. 

Effective in 2025, the proposal would completely eliminate the taxation of benefits for personal 

income tax filers. The OASI, DI, and HI Trust Funds would be held harmless, however, with 

transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury to the three trust funds equivalent to the amount 

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

2023 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Percent of GDP

Figure 3. Proposal and Current-Law Cost, Expenditures, and Non-Interest 

Income as Percent of GDP: 2023 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Current-Law Cost

Current-Law Non-Interest Income

Current-Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Non-Interest Income

Proposal Expenditures
Page 6 – The Honorable Angie Craig

of revenue that would have been realized from taxation of benefits in the absence of this 

provision. 

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would have no effect on the long-range 

OASDI actuarial deficit and no effect on the annual deficit for the 75th projection year (2097).

Section 3. Apply the combined OASDI payroll tax rate on covered earnings above $250,000 

paid in 2025 and later. Increase the computed level of the AWI for years after 2024 by 

amounts ranging from 0.6 percent for 2025 to 0.9 percent for 2034 and later.

These provisions apply the OASDI payroll tax rate to covered earnings above $250,000 paid in 

2025 and later. The $250,000 level is a fixed amount after 2025 and is not indexed to price 

inflation or changes in the AWI. All covered earnings would be taxed once the current-law 

taxable maximum exceeds $250,000, which is projected to occur in 2035. Any covered earnings 

above the higher of $250,000 or the current-law taxable maximum in a given year would be 

counted as additional earnings taxed and would be credited for benefit purposes by:

a. Calculating a second average indexed monthly earnings (“AIME+”) reflecting only 

additional earnings taxed above the current-law maximum,

b. Applying a 2-percent PIA factor to this newly computed “AIME+” to develop a second 

component of the PIA, and

c. Adding this second PIA component to the current-law PIA.

In addition, the AWI would be increased above the level computed based on actual reported 

wages for all years beginning in 2025, as follows: 0.6 percent for year 2025, 0.7 percent for years 

2026-29, 0.8 percent for 2030-33, and 0.9 percent for 2034 and later.

The AWI increases for years 2025 and later and the secondary component of PIA based on 

AIME+ in section 3 increase OASDI cost. The specified increases in the computed AWI are 

intended to offset the effect on the AWI of a behavioral response to the application of the payroll 

tax rate to earnings not taxed under current law. We assume employers and employees will 

redistribute total employee compensation among taxes, wages, and other compensation. This 

behavioral response reduces the increase in both payroll tax revenue and scheduled benefits that 

would occur in the absence of this behavioral response. The specified AWI increases offset the 

estimated effect that the behavioral response would have on total wages and the AWI. 

Section 3 also provides that those employees with multiple employers in a tax year would make 

payroll tax contributions in the amount equivalent to what would have been paid directly if all 

earnings in the year were from one employer. For example, an employee with earnings of 

$200,000 from each of two employers would pay the 6.2 percent employee payroll tax on 

earnings up to the current law taxable maximum in 2025 (estimated at $174,900) and on the 

excess of total earnings over $250,000 ($400,000 - $250,000). 

We estimate that enactment of section 3 alone would reduce the long-range OASDI actuarial 

deficit by 2.31 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 75th

projection year (2097) by 2.40 percent of payroll.
Page 7 – The Honorable Angie Craig

Detailed Financial Results for the Provisions of the Proposal 

Summary Results by Provision 

Table A provides estimates of the effects on the OASDI long-range actuarial balance of the 

provisions of the proposal separately and on a combined basis. The table also includes estimates 

of the effect of the provisions on the annual balance (the difference between the income rate and 

the cost rate, expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll) for the 75th projection 

year, 2097. Interaction among individual provisions is reflected only in the total estimates for the 

combined provisions. 

Benefit Illustrations

Tables B1 and B2 provide illustrative examples of the projected change in benefit levels under 

the provisions of the proposal for beneficiaries retiring and starting benefit receipt at age 65 in 

future years at six selected earnings levels, with selected numbers of years of work. The 

“Maximum-AIME Steady Earner” is assumed to have earnings at ages 22 through 64 that equal 

the current-law taxable maximum level (equivalent to $160,200 for 2023) and the “Twice 

Maximum-AIME Steady Earner” is assumed to have earnings at ages 22 through 64 that equal 

twice the current-law taxable maximum level (equivalent to $320,400 for 2023). As a result, the 

provision to tax and credit earnings above the current-law taxable maximum affects only the 

“Twice Maximum-AIME Steady Earner” benefit level. Table B3 provides additional important 

information on characteristics of retired workers represented by these illustrations for the year 

2019. 

The first several columns of Table B1 compare the initial scheduled benefit levels, assuming 

retirement at age 65 under the provisions of the proposal, to scheduled current-law benefit levels. 

For all earners in the table except for the twice-maximum worker, there are only small benefit 

increases, due to the net effect of the increases in the computed AWI and the effect on the AWI 

of a behavioral response to increased payroll taxes, as explained above. For the twice maximum

worker, benefit increases occur mainly from the additional earnings subject to payroll tax above 

the current-law taxable maximum that are credited for benefit purposes. The twice-maximumAIME hypothetical worker has a 6.6 percent benefit increase from benefit credit at age 65 in 

2090 due to earnings taxed over the current-law taxable maximum. The final two columns of this 

table show the level of scheduled benefits under the proposal as a percentage of current-law 

scheduled benefits and the level of payable benefits under the proposal as a percentage of 

current-law payable benefits.

Table B2 provides two comparisons: (1) the percentage change in scheduled benefit levels at 

ages 65, 75, 85, and 95 under the proposal compared to scheduled benefits under current law; 

and (2) the percentage change in payable benefit levels at the same four ages under the proposal 

compared to payable benefits under current law. Each comparison assumes retirement and start 

of benefit receipt at age 65. Table B2 shows that projected scheduled benefits increase only 

slightly for all but the twice-maximum worker, who has a benefit increase from the “AIME+” 

provision and 2 percent factor on additional earnings taxed. 
Page 8 – The Honorable Angie Craig

The hypothetical workers represented in these tables reflect average career-earnings patterns of 

workers who started receiving retirement benefits under the Social Security program in recent 

years. The tables subdivide workers with very-low, low, and medium career-average earnings 

levels by their numbers of years of non-zero earnings.

Table B3 provides information helpful in interpreting the benefit illustrations in Tables B1 and 

B2. Percentages in Table B3 are based on tabulations from a 10-percent sample of newly-entitled 

retired workers in 2019. Table B3 displays the percentages of these newly-entitled retired

workers in 2019 that are closest to each of the illustrative examples and are:

1) “Dually Entitled”, meaning they received a higher spouse or widow(er) benefit based on 

the career earnings of their husband or wife,

2) “WEP” (Windfall Elimination Provision), meaning that they received a reduced benefit 

due to having a pension based on earnings that were not covered under the OASDI 

program (primarily certain government workers), and they had less than 30 years of 

substantial earnings that were taxable under the OASDI program,

3) “Foreign Born”, meaning that they entered the Social Security coverage area after birth 

(and generally after entering working ages), and

4) “All Others”, meaning they had none of the three characteristics listed above.

The extent to which retired-worker beneficiaries represented by each of the illustrative examples 

have any of the characteristics listed above (dually entitled, WEP, foreign born) is important 

because such individuals are less dependent on the OASDI benefit that relates to their own 

career-average earnings level. It should be noted that the distributions shown in Table B3 for 

retirees in 2019 will be changing somewhat for beneficiaries becoming entitled as retired-worker 

beneficiaries in the future.

Payroll Tax Effects

Table T compares the scheduled payroll tax levels under the provisions of the proposal to 

scheduled current-law payroll tax levels. Under the proposal, earnings above the higher of 

$250,000 and the current law taxable maximum will be taxed at the 12.4 percent rate starting in 

2025. This provision would increase the payroll tax liability of the twice-maximum earner by 

100 percent for 2040, 2060, and 2090. In addition, there would be effects on earnings (and 

therefore payroll taxes paid) due to the assumed behavioral response by employees and 

employers; these effects are not included in this table.

Detailed Tables Containing Annual and Summary Projections

Enclosed with this letter are tables 1, 1a, 1b, 1b.n, 1c, 1d, and 1d.n, which provide annual and 

summary projections for the proposal.
Page 9 – The Honorable Angie Craig

Trust Fund Operations

Table 1 provides projections of the financial operations of the OASDI program under the 

proposal and shows that the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds would be able to pay scheduled 

benefits in full and on time for an additional 20 years assuming enactment of the two provisions. 

The year in which the combined reserves of the OASI and DI Trust Funds are projected to 

become depleted would change from 2034 under current law to 2054 under the proposal. Even 

after depletion of the trust fund reserves, however, the actuarial status of the program would be 

improved as continuing income would be sufficient to pay a higher percentage of scheduled 

benefits than under current law. Under current law, 80 percent of scheduled benefits are 

projected to be payable at trust fund reserve depletion in 2034, declining to 74 percent payable 

by 2097. Under this proposal, 100 percent of the proposed (higher) scheduled benefits would be 

fully payable through 2053, and 91 percent would be payable at trust fund reserve depletion in 

2054, declining to 88 percent payable by 2097.

The table shows the annual cost and income rates, annual balances, and trust fund ratios 

(reserves as percentage of annual program cost) for OASDI, as well as the change from current 

law in these cost rates, income rates, and annual balances. Included at the bottom of this table are 

summarized rates for the 75-year (long-range) period.

For 2025 and later, the proposal improves the annual balance (non-interest income minus 

program cost). The improvement in the annual balance increases from 1.7 percent of current-law 

payroll for 2025 to 2.5 percent of payroll for 2035, and thereafter generally decreases to 2.4

percent of payroll for 2097. Under the proposal, the annual deficit is 1.2 percent of payroll in 

2023 and 2.0 in 2024. The annual deficit decreases to 0.4 percent in 2025 and 0.3 percent in 

2026, increases to 2.7 percent of payroll in 2078, and generally decreases thereafter, ultimately 

reaching 1.9 percent of current-law payroll for 2097. Under current law, the projected annual 

deficit for 2097 is 4.3 percent of payroll.

The actuarial deficit for the OASDI program over the 75-year projection period is reduced by 

2.31 percent of taxable payroll, from an actuarial deficit of 3.61 percent of payroll under current 

law to an actuarial deficit of 1.30 percent of taxable payroll under the proposal.

Program Transfers and Trust Fund Reserves

Column 4 of Table 1a provides a projection of the level of reserves for the combined OASI and 

DI Trust Funds, assuming enactment of the two Social Security provisions of the proposal. These 

trust fund reserve amounts are expressed in present value dollars discounted to January 1, 2023. 

The table indicates that the proposal includes specified transfers of general revenue to the 

combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, to reimburse for the loss of revenues from elimination of 

the taxation of Social Security benefits. For purpose of comparison, the combined OASI and DI 

Trust Fund reserves, expressed in present value dollars, are also shown for the current-law Social 

Security program both without and with the added proposal General Fund transfers in columns 6 

and 7. The transfers to the OASI and DI Trust Funds total $6.2 trillion in present value through 

2097. The additional transfers to the Medicare HI Trust Fund over this period, not reflected in 

this table, would be about $5.0 trillion.
Page 10 – The Honorable Angie Craig

Note that negative values in columns 6 and 7 represent the “unfunded obligation” for the 

program through the year. The unfunded obligation is the present value of the shortfall of 

revenue needed to pay full scheduled benefits on a timely basis from the date of trust fund 

reserve depletion through the end of the indicated year. Gross Domestic Product (GDP),

expressed in present value dollars, is shown in column 5 for comparison with other values in the 

table.

Effect of the Social Security Provisions on the Federal Budget

Table 1b shows the projected effect, in present value discounted dollars, on the federal budget 

(unified-budget and on-budget) annual cash flows and balances, assuming enactment of the two 

Social Security provisions of the proposal. Table 1b.n provides the estimated nominal dollar 

effect of enactment of the proposal on annual budget balances for years 2023 through 2032. All 

values in these tables represent the amount of change from the level projected under current law. 

Only changes directly related to the OASI and DI Trust Funds are reflected in these estimates, 

thus omitting any potential effects on income, taxes, and payments for federal programs that do 

not directly affect the finances of the OASDI program. In addition, changes reflect the budget 

scoring convention that presumes benefits, not payable under the law after depletion of trust fund 

reserves, would still be paid using revenue provided from the General Fund of the Treasury. The 

reader should be cautioned that this presumption of payment of benefits beyond the resources of 

the trust funds is prohibited under current law and is also inconsistent with all past experience 

under the Social Security program.

The two provisions of the proposal have different budget effects. The section 3 payroll tax rate 

increase increases the unified budget and Social Security cash flows with new revenue. Section 

2, which eliminates income taxation of OASDI benefits and provides for reimbursement from the 

General Fund of the Treasury to hold the OASI, DI, and HI Trust Funds harmless, reduces both 

on-budget and unified budget cash flows. However, budget effects in this table do not include 

any effects on the HI Trust Fund, principally General Fund transfers to reimburse HI for the loss 

of revenue from the taxation of OASDI benefits. 

Column 1 of Table 1b shows the added proposal General Fund transfers, representing 

reimbursement from the General Fund of the Treasury to the OASI and DI Trust Funds for the 

loss of revenue from the taxation of benefits under the proposal. The proposal General Fund 

transfers to the OASI and DI Trust Funds total $6.2 trillion in present value through 2097. The 

additional transfers to the Medicare HI Trust Fund over this period, not reflected in this table, 

would be about $5.0 trillion. In Table 1b.n, we indicate that the estimated proposal General Fund 

transfers to the OASI and DI Trust Funds would total $748 billion in nominal dollars through 

2032. The additional transfers to the Medicare HI Trust Fund over the period through 2032, not 

reflected in this table, would be about $549 billion in nominal dollars through 2032. Column 2 

shows the net changes in OASDI cash flow from section 3 of the proposal.

We project the net effect of the proposal on unified budget cash flow (column 3) to be positive in 

years 2025 and later, because the payroll tax rate increase in section 3 more than offsets the 

decrease from elimination of taxation of benefits for personal income tax filers in section 2.
Page 11 – The Honorable Angie Craig

Column 4 of Table 1b indicates that the effect of implementing the proposal would be a 

reduction of the federal debt held by the public (under the budget scoring convention), reaching 

about $8.9 trillion in present value at the end of the 75-year projection period. Column 5 

provides the projected effect of the proposal on the annual unified budget balances, including 

both the cash flow effect in column 3 and the additional interest on the accumulated debt in 

column 4. Columns 6 and 7 indicate the effects of elimination of taxation of benefits and 

reimbursement of the OASI and DI Trust Funds by the General Fund of the Treasury. The table 

does not include any on-budget effects from reimbursement to the HI Trust Fund that would 

occur from the provision eliminating taxation of benefits. In addition, the table shows no other 

effects on the on-budget cash flow, or on the total federal debt, in the future, that may arise from 

this proposal.

It is important to note that we base these estimates on the intermediate assumptions of the 2023

Trustees Report, so these estimates are not consistent with estimates made by the Office of 

Management and Budget or the Congressional Budget Office based on their assumptions. In 

particular, all present values are discounted using trust fund annual yield assumptions under the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report.

Annual Trust Fund Operations as a Percent of GDP

Table 1c provides annual cost, annual expenditures (amount that would be payable), and annual 

tax income for the OASDI program expressed as a percentage of GDP for both current law and 

assuming enactment of the two Social Security provisions of the proposal. Showing the annual 

trust fund cash flows as a percentage of GDP provides an additional perspective on these trust 

fund operations in relation to the total value of goods and services produced in the United States. 

The relationship between income and cost is similar when expressed as a percentage of GDP to 

that when expressed as a percent of taxable payroll (Table 1).

Effects on Trust Fund Reserves and Unfunded Obligations

Table 1d provides estimates of the changes in trust fund reserves and unfunded obligations on an 

annual basis, expressed in present value dollars discounted to January 1, 2023. Table 1d.n

provides the same estimates, expressed in nominal dollars, for years 2023 through 2032.

For the 75-year (long-range) period as a whole, the current-law unfunded obligation of $22.4

trillion would be reduced to $7.3 trillion in present value at the end of 2097, assuming enactment 

of the proposal. This change of $15.1 trillion results from:

• A $15.7 trillion net increase in income, primarily from additional payroll tax revenue 

from section 3, minus

• A $0.5 trillion net increase in cost (column 3), due primarily to additional benefits 

from earnings taxed above the current-law taxable maximum.
Page 12 – The Honorable Angie Craig

We hope these estimates are helpful. Please let me know if we may provide further assistance.

Sincerely,

 Stephen C. Goss, ASA, MAAA

Chief Actuary

Enclosures
Table A—Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of the

“You Earned It, You Keep It Act”, Introduced by Representative Craig

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

for 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

Section 2) Eliminate income taxation of OASDI benefits 

effective in 2025. Provide for transfers from the General Fund 

of the Treasury to the OASI, DI, and HI Trust Funds of 

amounts equivalent to the projected amounts of revenue that 

would have been realized from taxation of benefits in the 

absence of this provision....................................................... 3 3

Section 3) Apply the combined OASDI payroll tax rate on 

covered earnings above $250,000 paid in 2025 and later, and 

tax all covered earnings once the current-law taxable 

maximum exceeds $250,000. Increase the computed level of 

the AWI for years after 2024 by amounts ranging from 0.6 

percent for 2025 to 0.9 percent for 2034 and later. Credit the 

additional earnings taxed for benefit purposes by: (a) 

calculating a second average indexed monthly earnings 

(“AIME+”) reflecting only earnings taxed above the currentlaw taxable maximum, (b) applying a 2 percent factor on this 

newly computed “AIME+” to develop a second component of 

the PIA, and (c) adding this second component to the currentlaw PIA............................................................................... 2.31 2.40

Total for all provisions, including interaction.................. 2.31 2.40

1Under current law, the estimated long-range OASDI actuarial balance is -3.61 percent of taxable payroll.

2Under current law, the estimated 75th year annual balance is -4.35 percent of taxable payroll.

3Negligible; that is, between -0.005 and 0.005 percent of taxable payroll. 

Notes: All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report. 

 Estimates of individual provisions appear on a stand-alone basis relative to current law, unless otherwise stated.

Social Security Administration

Office of the Chief Actuary

January 25, 2024
Proposal Proposal

Year Scheduled to Payable to

Attain Payroll Tax and Current Law Current Law

Age 65 (Wage-Indexed (CPI-Indexed Benefit Formula5 Total Scheduled Payable

2023 Dollars) 2023 Dollars)

 

2027 877 932 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 894 1,131 0.1 0.1 100 128

2060 899 1,421 0.1 0.1 100 120

2090 899 1,992 0.1 0.1 100 120

 

2027 877 932 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 894 1,131 0.1 0.1 100 128

2060 899 1,421 0.1 0.1 100 120

2090 899 1,992 0.1 0.1 100 120

 

2027 877 932 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 894 1,131 0.1 0.1 100 128

2060 899 1,421 0.1 0.1 100 120

2090 899 1,992 0.1 0.1 100 120

 

2027 877 932 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 894 1,131 0.1 0.1 100 128

2060 899 1,421 0.1 0.1 100 120

2090 899 1,992 0.1 0.1 100 120

2027 1,149 1,221 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 1,171 1,480 0.0 0.0 100 128

2060 1,177 1,860 0.0 0.0 100 120

2090 1,176 2,608 0.1 0.1 100 120

2027 1,149 1,221 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 1,171 1,480 0.0 0.0 100 128

2060 1,177 1,860 0.0 0.0 100 120

2090 1,176 2,608 0.1 0.1 100 120

2027 1,149 1,221 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 1,171 1,480 0.0 0.0 100 128

2060 1,177 1,860 0.0 0.0 100 120

2090 1,176 2,608 0.1 0.1 100 120

2027 1,896 2,015 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 1,931 2,442 0.1 0.1 100 128

2060 1,942 3,067 0.0 0.0 100 120

2090 1,940 4,301 0.0 0.0 100 120

2027 1,896 2,015 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 1,931 2,442 0.1 0.1 100 128

2060 1,942 3,067 0.0 0.0 100 120

2090 1,940 4,301 0.0 0.0 100 120

2027 2,509 2,666 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 2,556 3,231 0.1 0.1 100 128

2060 2,570 4,060 0.1 0.1 100 120

2090 2,568 5,692 0.1 0.1 100 120

2027 3,065 3,258 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 3,127 3,953 0.1 0.1 100 128

2060 3,136 4,955 0.1 0.1 100 120

2090 3,135 6,949 0.1 0.1 100 120

2027 3,065 3,258 2.0 2.0 102 102

2040 3,127 3,953 2.5 2.5 102 131

2060 3,136 4,955 6.2 6.2 106 127

2090 3,135 6,949 6.6 6.6 107 127

1

2

3

4

5

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration January 25, 2024

After the trust fund reserves deplete under current law continuing taxes are expected to be enough to pay about three fourths of scheduled benefits.

Starting in 2025, apply the OASDI payroll tax rate on earnings above $250,000, and tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $250,000. Increase the level of 

the computed AWI after 2024 by amounts ranging from 0.6% in 2025, 0.7% in 2026-29, 0.8% in 2030-33, and 0.9% in 2034 and later. Credit the additional earnings for benefit 

purposes by: (a) calculating a second average indexed monthly earnings ("AIME+") reflecting only earnings taxed above the current law taxable maximum, (b) applying a 2 percent 

factor on this newly computed "AIME+" to develop a second component of the PIA, and (c) adding this second PIA component to the first PIA component.

This analysis reflects only the provisions of the proposal identified in this table and described in the footnotes above.

Of the 7.6 percent of retirees with current-law AIME closest to the Maximum-Current-Law level, about 33 percent (or 2.5 percent of all retirees) would have an AIME closer to the 

Twice Maximum-Current-Law level if their earnings were not limited by annual taxable maximums.

 Very-Low-AIME ($16,537 for 20231) 14-Year Scaled Earner (3.6% of Retirees 2)

 Low-AIME ($29,766 for 20231

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (18.8% of Retirees 2)

 Low-AIME ($29,766 for 20231

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (3.8% of Retirees 2)

 Low-AIME ($29,766 for 20231

) 20-Year Scaled Earner (1.4% of Retirees 2)

 Medium-AIME ($66,147 for 20231

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (27.5% of Retirees 2)

 Medium-AIME ($66,147 for 20231

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (1.8% of Retirees 2)

 High-AIME ($105,835 for 20231

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (19.3% of Retirees 2)

 Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($160,200 for 20231

) 43-Year Steady Earner (7.6% of Retirees2)

 Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($320,400 for 20231

) 43-Year Steady Earner3

Average of highest 35 years of taxable earnings wage indexed to 2023. For the Maximum and Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME workers, we show one times and two times the 

2023 taxable maximum, respectively.

Projected percent of newly entitled retired worker beneficiaries in 2050 with current-law AIME levels and years of covered earnings closest to AIME levels and close to years of 

covered earnings shown. See details in Note 1 on table B3.

 Very-Low-AIME ($16,537 for 20231) 20-Year Scaled Earner (5.0% of Retirees 2)

Table B1. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Becoming Newly Entitled at age 65 

"You Earned It, You Keep It Act", Introduced by Representative Craig

Benefit Ratios

Scheduled Benefit Level Percent Change at age 65

Current Law Scheduled

Monthly Benefits4

(Percent change) (Percents)

 Very-Low-AIME ($16,537 for 20231) 40-Year Scaled Earner (5.4% of Retirees 2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($16,537 for 20231

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (5.8% of Retirees 2)
Year 

Attain

Age 65 Age 65 Age 75 Age 85 Age 95 Age 65 Age 75 Age 85 Age 95

2027 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 127.1 129.0 119.8

2040 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 128.2 129.7 119.8 119.6

2060 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 119.8 119.6 119.6 119.6

2090 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 119.6 119.6 4 4

2027 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 127.1 129.0 119.8

2040 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 128.2 129.7 119.8 119.6

2060 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 119.8 119.6 119.6 119.6

2090 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 119.6 119.6 4 4

2027 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 127.1 129.0 119.8

2040 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 128.2 129.7 119.8 119.6

2060 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 119.8 119.6 119.6 119.6

2090 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 119.6 119.6 4 4

2027 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 127.1 129.0 119.8

2040 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 128.2 129.7 119.8 119.6

2060 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 119.8 119.6 119.6 119.6

2090 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 119.6 119.6 4 4

2027 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 127.1 129.0 119.8

2040 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 128.2 129.7 119.8 119.6

2060 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 119.8 119.6 119.6 119.6

2090 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 119.6 119.6 4 4

2027 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 127.1 129.0 119.8

2040 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 128.2 129.7 119.8 119.6

2060 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 119.8 119.6 119.6 119.6

2090 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 119.6 119.6 4 4

2027 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 127.1 129.0 119.8

2040 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 128.2 129.7 119.8 119.6

2060 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 119.8 119.6 119.6 119.6

2090 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 119.6 119.6 4 4

2027 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 127.1 129.0 119.8

2040 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 128.2 129.7 119.8 119.6

2060 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 119.8 119.6 119.6 119.6

2090 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 119.6 119.6 4 4

2027 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 127.1 129.0 119.8

2040 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 128.2 129.7 119.8 119.6

2060 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 119.8 119.6 119.6 119.6

2090 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 119.6 119.6 4 4

2027 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 127.1 129.0 119.8

2040 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 128.3 129.7 119.8 119.6

2060 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 119.8 119.6 119.6 119.6

2090 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 119.6 119.6 4 4

2027 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 127.1 129.0 119.8

2040 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 128.2 129.7 119.8 119.6

2060 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 119.8 119.6 119.6 119.6

2090 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 119.6 119.6 4 4

2027 102.0 102.0 102.0 102.0 102.0 129.7 131.6 122.2

2040 102.5 102.5 102.5 102.5 131.4 132.9 122.7 122.5

2060 106.2 106.2 106.2 106.2 127.1 127.0 126.9 126.9

2090 106.6 106.6 106.6 106.6 127.5 127.5 4 4

1

2

3

4

Note:

-

- This analysis reflects only the provisions of the proposal identified in Table B1 and described in the notes above.

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration January 25, 2024

 Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($160,200 for 20231) 43-Year Steady Earner (7.6% of Retirees2)

 Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($320,400 for 20231

) 43-Year Steady Earner3

Average of highest 35 years of taxable earnings wage indexed to 2023. For the Maximum and Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME workers, we show one times and 

two times the 2023 taxable maximum, respectively.

Projected percent of newly entitled retired worker beneficiaries in 2050 with current-law AIME levels and years of covered earnings closest to AIME levels and close to 

years of covered earnings shown. See details in Note 1 on table B3.

Of the 7.6 percent of retirees with current-law AIME closest to the Maximum-Current-Law level, about 33 percent (or 2.5 percent of all retirees) would have an AIME 

closer to the Twice Maximum-Current-Law level if their earnings were not limited by annual taxable maximums.

The proposal payable benefit as percent of current law payable benefit is not presented for years of payment beyond the 75-year projection period.

Starting in 2025, apply the OASDI payroll tax rate on earnings above $250,000, and tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $250,000. Increase 

the level of the computed AWI after 2024 by amounts ranging from 0.6% in 2025, 0.7% in 2026-29, 0.8% in 2030-33, and 0.9% in 2034 and later. Credit the additional 

earnings for benefit purposes by: (a) calculating a second average indexed monthly earnings ("AIME+") reflecting only earnings taxed above the current law taxable 

maximum, (b) applying a 2 percent factor on this newly computed "AIME+" to develop a second component of the PIA, and (c) adding this second PIA component to 

the first PIA component.

 High-AIME ($105,835 for 2023 1) 44-Year Scaled Earner (19.3% of Retirees2)

(Percent) (Percent)

 Very-Low-AIME ($16,537 for 20231) 40-Year Scaled Earner (5.4% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($16,537 for 20231

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (5.8% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($16,537 for 20231

) 20-Year Scaled Earner (5.0% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($16,537 for 20231

) 14-Year Scaled Earner (3.6% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($29,766 for 20231

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (18.8% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($29,766 for 20231

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (3.8% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($29,766 for 20231

) 20-Year Scaled Earner (1.4% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($66,147 for 20231

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (27.5% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($66,147 for 20231

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (1.8% of Retirees2)

Table B2. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Becoming Newly Entitled age 65 

"You Earned It, You Keep It Act", Introduced by Representative Craig

Proposal Scheduled Benefit as Percent of Proposal Payable Benefit as Percent of 

Current Law Scheduled Benefit Current Law Payable Benefit
Category 

(AIME and Years of Covered Earnings Close to) Dually Entitled2 WEP3 Foreign Born All Others4

Very-Low-AIME ($12,528 for 20191):

40-Year Scaled Earner (2.2% of Retirees) 25 6 7 64

30-Year Scaled Earner (5.9% of Retirees) 26 8 18 51

20-Year Scaled Earner (5.6% of Retirees) 26 14 30 37

14-Year Scaled Earner (4.6% of Retirees) 22 18 52 20

Low-AIME ($22,548 for 20191

):

44-Year Scaled Earner (13.9% of Retirees) 8 2 7 83

30-Year Scaled Earner (6.3% of Retirees) 10 8 29 54

20-Year Scaled Earner (2.1% of Retirees) 9 19 49 29

Medium-AIME ($50,112 for 20191

):

44-Year Scaled Earner (26.5% of Retirees) 1 1 7 92

30-Year Scaled Earner (3.1% of Retirees) 1 12 42 49

High-AIME ($80,184 for 20191

):

44-Year Scaled Earner (20.4% of Retirees) 0 1 9 91

Maximum-AIME ($132,900 for 20191

):

Steady Earner (9.4% of Retirees) 0 0 9 91

1

2

3

4 Not foreign born, not dually entitled by the end of 2021, and not reduced by WEP by the end of 2021.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration June 17, 2023

Table B3. Characteristics of Retired Worker Beneficiaries Becoming Newly Entitled in 2019

Percent of Beneficiaries Within Each Category That Are:

Note 1: Table B3 displays certain characteristics of newly-entitled retired worker beneficiaries in 2019 who are similar to the illustrative hypothetical workers shown in tables 

B1 and B2. The categories shown here include those workers with AIME closest to the earnings level shown, and with years of covered earnings close to the number shown. In 

particular: 

- For the Very-Low-AIME category, 

 - workers included in the "40-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 35+ years of covered earnings; 

 - workers included in the "30-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 25-34 years of covered earnings; 

 - workers included in the "20-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 18-24 years of covered earnings; 

 - workers included in the "14-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have less than 18 years of covered earnings.

- For the Low-AIME category, 

 - workers included in the "44-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 35+ years of covered earnings; 

 - workers included in the "30-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 25-34 years of covered earnings; 

 - workers included in the "20-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have less than 25 years of covered earnings.

- For the Medium-AIME category, 

 - workers included in the "44-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 35+ years of covered earnings; 

 - workers included in the "30-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have less than 35 years of covered earnings.

- Workers included in the High-AIME "44-Year Scaled Earner" category have all numbers of years of covered earnings.

- Workers included in the Maximum-Current-Law-AIME "Steady Earner" category have all numbers of years of covered earnings.

Note 2: The percentages in each category are based on tabulations of a 10-percent sample of newly entitled retired-worker beneficiaries in 2019 (308,569 records). We can be 

95 percent confident that each of the values shown above is within 1.4 percentage points of the value we would find using 100 percent of the retirees in 2019.

Note 3: The sum of the percentages for each category (sum across rows) could be greater than 100 percent because some beneficiaries can be classified in more than one of the 

following groups: dually entitled, WEP, and foreign born. 

Average of highest 35 years of taxable earnings wage indexed to 2019.

Values in this column are percentages of retired workers newly entitled in 2019 who were also entitled to a higher benefit based on someone else’s account by the end of 

2021. The percentage that will ever become dually entitled is higher for most categories, because some retired workers newly entitled in 2019 will first become dually 

entitled after 2021.

Values in this column are percentages of retired workers newly entitled in 2019 who had their benefit reduced based on receipt of a pension from government employment 

under the windfall elimination provision (WEP) by the end of 2021. The percentage that will ever be reduced by WEP is higher for each category, because some retired 

workers newly entitled in 2019 will first receive a government pension after 2018.
Proposal Scheduled Payroll Taxes

Earnings Taxable Percent of Current Law

in Year (Wage-Indexed (CPI-Indexed Maximum2

2023 Dollars) 2023 Dollars) (Percents)

2027 171 182 0.0 100

2040 171 216 0.0 100

2060 171 270 0.0 100

2090 171 379 0.0 100

2027 308 327 0.0 100

2040 308 389 0.0 100

2060 308 486 0.0 100

2090 308 682 0.0 100

2027 684 726 0.0 100

2040 684 865 0.0 100

2060 684 1,080 0.0 100

2090 684 1,515 0.0 100

2027 1,094 1,162 0.0 100

2040 1,094 1,384 0.0 100

2060 1,094 1,729 0.0 100

2090 1,094 2,423 0.0 100

2027 1,655 1,759 0.0 100

2040 1,655 2,094 0.0 100

2060 1,655 2,617 0.0 100

2090 1,655 3,668 0.0 100

2027 1,655 1,759 67.5 168

2040 1,655 2,094 100.0 200

2060 1,655 2,617 100.0 200

2090 1,655 3,668 100.0 200

1

2

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report.

This analysis reflects only the provisions of the proposal identified in this table and described in the footnotes above. 

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration January 25, 2024

26th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($16,537 in 2023)

40th Percentile Earner1

 in Year ($29,766 in 2023)

69th Percentile Earner1

 in Year ($66,147 in 2023)

85th Percentile Earner1

 in Year ($105,835 in 2023)

94th Percentile Earner1

 in Year ($160,200 in 2023) Current-Law Maximum Earnings Level

98th Percentile Earner1

 in Year ($320,400 in 2023) Twice Current-Law Maximum Earnings Level

Percentile among all workers with any covered earnings in 2023 (including earnings both above and below the current-law taxable maximum earnings level). We include those who will die 

or become disabled before reaching retirement age, and those who will not earn enough in their career to become fully insured for retired worker benefits. Thus, these percentiles are not 

directly comparable to the percentages in the B tables, which are based on lifetime earnings, and include only those who survive and become eligible for retirement benefits.

Starting in 2025, apply the OASDI payroll tax rate on earnings above $250,000, and tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $250,000. In addition, there would be 

effects on earnings (and therefore payroll taxes paid) due to the assumed behavioral response.

(Percent change) 

Table T. Changes in Payroll Tax Contributions (Employee + Employer) for Workers with OASDI Covered Earnings in the Year

"You Earned It, You Keep It Act", Introduced by Representative Craig

Scheduled Payroll Taxes Percent Change 

Current Law Scheduled

Monthly Total Payroll Taxes
Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2023 14.53 13.29 -1.24 204 0.00 0.00 0.00

2024 14.87 12.89 -1.98 187 0.00 0.00 0.00

2025 15.04 14.63 -0.42 168 0.00 1.65 1.65

2026 15.23 14.92 -0.31 160 0.00 1.84 1.84

2027 15.38 15.01 -0.37 153 0.00 1.92 1.92

2028 15.55 15.13 -0.43 147 0.00 1.99 2.00

2029 15.72 15.24 -0.48 141 0.00 2.07 2.07

2030 15.87 15.34 -0.53 135 0.00 2.15 2.15

2031 16.01 15.45 -0.55 129 0.00 2.24 2.24

2032 16.15 15.56 -0.59 124 0.00 2.33 2.32

2033 16.27 15.65 -0.62 119 0.01 2.40 2.40

2034 16.39 15.74 -0.65 114 0.01 2.48 2.48

2035 16.49 15.77 -0.72 110 0.01 2.50 2.49

2036 16.57 15.78 -0.79 107 0.01 2.50 2.49

2037 16.65 15.79 -0.86 102 0.01 2.51 2.49

2038 16.71 15.79 -0.92 98 0.02 2.51 2.49

2039 16.77 15.80 -0.97 93 0.02 2.51 2.49

2040 16.80 15.80 -1.00 88 0.02 2.51 2.48

2041 16.83 15.81 -1.02 83 0.03 2.51 2.48

2042 16.85 15.81 -1.04 78 0.03 2.51 2.48

2043 16.86 15.81 -1.05 72 0.03 2.51 2.48

2044 16.88 15.82 -1.07 67 0.04 2.51 2.47

2045 16.90 15.82 -1.08 61 0.04 2.51 2.47

2046 16.93 15.82 -1.10 55 0.04 2.51 2.47

2047 16.95 15.83 -1.12 50 0.05 2.51 2.47

2048 16.98 15.83 -1.15 43 0.05 2.52 2.46

2049 17.01 15.84 -1.18 37 0.06 2.52 2.46

2050 17.05 15.84 -1.21 31 0.06 2.52 2.46

2051 17.08 15.84 -1.24 24 0.07 2.52 2.45

2052 17.13 15.85 -1.28 17 0.07 2.52 2.45

2053 17.18 15.85 -1.33 10 0.07 2.52 2.45

2054 17.24 15.86 -1.38 3 0.08 2.52 2.45

2055 17.31 15.87 -1.45 ---- 0.08 2.52 2.44

2056 17.39 15.87 -1.52 ---- 0.09 2.53 2.44

2057 17.47 15.88 -1.59 ---- 0.09 2.53 2.44

2058 17.55 15.89 -1.66 ---- 0.09 2.53 2.43

2059 17.64 15.90 -1.74 ---- 0.10 2.53 2.43

2060 17.72 15.90 -1.82 ---- 0.10 2.53 2.43

2061 17.80 15.91 -1.89 ---- 0.11 2.53 2.42

2062 17.87 15.92 -1.95 ---- 0.11 2.53 2.42

2063 17.94 15.92 -2.02 ---- 0.11 2.53 2.42

2064 18.00 15.93 -2.07 ---- 0.12 2.53 2.42

2065 18.07 15.94 -2.13 ---- 0.12 2.53 2.41

2066 18.13 15.94 -2.19 ---- 0.12 2.54 2.41

2067 18.19 15.95 -2.24 ---- 0.13 2.54 2.41

2068 18.25 15.95 -2.29 ---- 0.13 2.54 2.41

2069 18.31 15.96 -2.35 ---- 0.13 2.54 2.41

2070 18.37 15.96 -2.40 ---- 0.14 2.54 2.40

2071 18.42 15.97 -2.45 ---- 0.14 2.54 2.40

2072 18.47 15.97 -2.50 ---- 0.14 2.54 2.40

2073 18.53 15.98 -2.55 ---- 0.14 2.54 2.40

2074 18.57 15.98 -2.59 ---- 0.14 2.54 2.40

2075 18.61 15.99 -2.62 ---- 0.15 2.54 2.40

2076 18.64 15.99 -2.65 ---- 0.15 2.54 2.40

2077 18.65 15.99 -2.66 ---- 0.15 2.54 2.39

2078 18.65 15.99 -2.66 ---- 0.15 2.55 2.39

2079 18.64 15.99 -2.65 ---- 0.15 2.55 2.39

2080 18.62 15.99 -2.63 ---- 0.15 2.55 2.39

2081 18.59 15.99 -2.60 ---- 0.15 2.55 2.39

2082 18.55 15.99 -2.56 ---- 0.15 2.55 2.39

2083 18.50 15.99 -2.51 ---- 0.15 2.55 2.39

2084 18.44 15.99 -2.46 ---- 0.15 2.55 2.39

2085 18.38 15.98 -2.40 ---- 0.15 2.55 2.39

2086 18.31 15.98 -2.34 ---- 0.15 2.55 2.40

2087 18.24 15.98 -2.27 ---- 0.15 2.55 2.40

2088 18.17 15.97 -2.20 ---- 0.15 2.55 2.40

2089 18.11 15.97 -2.14 ---- 0.15 2.55 2.40

2090 18.05 15.96 -2.08 ---- 0.15 2.55 2.40

2091 17.99 15.96 -2.03 ---- 0.15 2.55 2.40

2092 17.95 15.96 -1.99 ---- 0.15 2.55 2.40

2093 17.92 15.96 -1.97 ---- 0.15 2.55 2.40

2094 17.90 15.96 -1.95 ---- 0.15 2.55 2.40

2095 17.90 15.96 -1.94 ---- 0.15 2.55 2.40

2096 17.90 15.96 -1.94 ---- 0.15 2.55 2.40

2097 17.90 15.96 -1.95 ---- 0.15 2.55 2.40

2098 17.92 15.96 -1.96 ---- 0.15 2.55 2.40

Summarized Rates: OASDI Summarized Rates: OASDI

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

2023 - 2097 17.46% 16.17% -1.30% 2054 0.08% 2.39% 2.31%

Office of the Chief Actuary

Note: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration

1

Under current law the year of combined Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. January 25, 2024

"You Earned It, You Keep It Act", Introduced by Representative Craig

Year of reserve 

depletion1

Proposal Change from Current Law

Expressed as a percentage of current-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of current-law

taxable payroll
Table 1a - General Fund Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Reserves, and Theoretical OASDI Reserves

Percentage

of Payroll

Annual

Amounts

Accumulated as of 

End of Year

Gross Domestic 

Product

Without General

Fund Transfers

With Plan General

Fund Transfers

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,713.0 26,284.9 2,713.0 2,713.0

2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,522.6 26,707.0 2,522.6 2,522.6

2025 0.6 58.5 58.5 2,482.3 27,262.2 2,318.9 2,377.5

2026 0.7 70.8 129.3 2,452.1 27,784.5 2,102.7 2,232.0

2027 0.7 74.7 204.0 2,415.2 28,258.1 1,868.6 2,072.6

2028 0.8 78.3 282.3 2,371.7 28,650.7 1,616.7 1,899.0

2029 0.8 82.1 364.4 2,321.7 29,001.3 1,347.3 1,711.7

2030 0.8 86.2 450.6 2,266.1 29,305.1 1,061.3 1,511.9

2031 0.8 90.2 540.8 2,207.9 29,555.9 761.5 1,302.3

2032 0.9 94.2 635.0 2,146.0 29,735.0 447.8 1,082.8

2033 0.9 95.5 730.5 2,080.5 29,788.9 122.1 852.6

2034 0.9 96.1 826.6 2,012.7 29,697.3 -213.2 613.4

2035 0.9 96.3 923.0 1,937.9 29,540.6 -555.4 367.6

2036 0.9 96.4 1,019.4 1,856.0 29,362.7 -902.4 117.0

2037 0.9 96.4 1,115.8 1,767.2 29,165.2 -1,254.1 -138.3

2038 0.9 96.2 1,212.0 1,673.1 28,971.6 -1,608.5 -396.5

2039 0.9 95.9 1,307.9 1,574.9 28,770.2 -1,964.5 -656.6

2040 0.9 95.5 1,403.5 1,474.1 28,572.1 -2,320.7 -917.2

2041 0.9 95.0 1,498.5 1,371.9 28,370.9 -2,675.8 -1,177.4

2042 0.9 94.4 1,592.9 1,269.2 28,171.3 -3,029.0 -1,436.1

2043 0.9 93.8 1,686.7 1,166.1 27,969.5 -3,380.1 -1,693.3

2044 0.9 93.3 1,780.0 1,062.4 27,770.4 -3,729.4 -1,949.4

2045 0.9 92.7 1,872.7 957.8 27,574.9 -4,077.1 -2,204.4

2046 0.9 92.2 1,964.9 852.3 27,381.0 -4,423.4 -2,458.5

2047 0.9 91.7 2,056.6 745.5 27,192.9 -4,768.7 -2,712.1

2048 1.0 91.2 2,147.8 637.3 27,007.8 -5,113.1 -2,965.3

2049 1.0 90.8 2,238.6 527.2 26,827.3 -5,457.2 -3,218.6

2050 1.0 90.4 2,329.1 415.1 26,652.1 -5,801.2 -3,472.1

2051 1.0 90.1 2,419.1 300.9 26,481.3 -6,145.1 -3,726.0

2052 1.0 89.7 2,508.9 183.8 26,310.9 -6,489.8 -3,980.9

2053 1.0 89.5 2,598.3 63.4 26,140.8 -6,835.9 -4,237.5

2054 1.0 89.2 2,687.6 -61.2 25,969.9 -7,183.9 -4,496.4

2055 1.0 89.0 2,776.6 -190.5 25,800.2 -7,534.7 -4,758.1

2056 1.0 88.9 2,865.5 -325.0 25,633.3 -7,888.6 -5,023.2

2057 1.0 88.8 2,954.3 -464.9 25,469.9 -8,246.0 -5,291.7

2058 1.0 88.8 3,043.1 -610.5 25,306.2 -8,607.1 -5,564.1

2059 1.0 88.7 3,131.8 -761.8 25,142.5 -8,972.0 -5,840.2

2060 1.0 88.6 3,220.4 -918.4 24,979.8 -9,340.3 -6,119.9

2061 1.0 88.5 3,308.8 -1,079.8 24,816.8 -9,711.5 -6,402.7

2062 1.0 88.3 3,397.1 -1,245.6 24,653.2 -10,085.2 -6,688.1

2063 1.0 88.1 3,485.2 -1,415.4 24,489.6 -10,461.1 -6,976.0

2064 1.0 87.8 3,573.0 -1,588.8 24,325.4 -10,838.7 -7,265.7

2065 1.0 87.6 3,660.6 -1,765.6 24,159.6 -11,218.0 -7,557.4

2066 1.1 87.3 3,747.9 -1,945.7 23,992.3 -11,598.6 -7,850.7

2067 1.1 87.0 3,834.9 -2,128.7 23,826.4 -11,980.4 -8,145.5

2068 1.1 86.7 3,921.6 -2,314.6 23,661.3 -12,363.4 -8,441.8

2069 1.1 86.4 4,008.0 -2,503.5 23,494.1 -12,747.5 -8,739.5

2070 1.1 86.1 4,094.0 -2,695.2 23,327.4 -13,132.8 -9,038.7

2071 1.1 85.7 4,179.8 -2,889.3 23,162.3 -13,518.8 -9,339.0

2072 1.1 85.4 4,265.1 -3,085.7 22,998.9 -13,905.3 -9,640.1

2073 1.1 85.0 4,350.2 -3,284.1 22,835.8 -14,292.2 -9,942.0

2074 1.1 84.7 4,434.9 -3,484.2 22,675.7 -14,679.2 -10,244.3

2075 1.1 84.3 4,519.1 -3,685.4 22,519.3 -15,065.7 -10,546.5

2076 1.1 83.9 4,603.0 -3,886.8 22,365.3 -15,450.9 -10,847.9

2077 1.1 83.4 4,686.4 -4,087.6 22,214.6 -15,834.0 -11,147.6

2078 1.1 82.8 4,769.2 -4,286.9 22,067.0 -16,214.3 -11,445.1

2079 1.1 82.2 4,851.4 -4,483.9 21,924.5 -16,590.8 -11,739.4

2080 1.1 81.6 4,932.9 -4,677.7 21,785.0 -16,962.8 -12,029.9

2081 1.1 80.9 5,013.8 -4,867.9 21,648.5 -17,330.0 -12,316.2

2082 1.1 80.2 5,094.0 -5,053.9 21,515.6 -17,691.7 -12,597.8

2083 1.1 79.5 5,173.4 -5,235.3 21,386.7 -18,047.7 -12,874.3

2084 1.1 78.7 5,252.1 -5,411.6 21,261.1 -18,397.4 -13,145.3

2085 1.1 77.9 5,330.0 -5,582.5 21,137.6 -18,740.7 -13,410.6

2086 1.1 77.1 5,407.2 -5,747.8 21,016.6 -19,077.2 -13,670.0

2087 1.1 76.3 5,483.5 -5,907.4 20,898.4 -19,406.9 -13,923.4

2088 1.1 75.5 5,559.0 -6,061.1 20,781.3 -19,729.9 -14,170.8

2089 1.1 74.8 5,633.8 -6,209.5 20,665.0 -20,046.4 -14,412.6

2090 1.1 74.0 5,707.8 -6,353.0 20,549.6 -20,357.0 -14,649.2

2091 1.1 73.3 5,781.1 -6,492.2 20,434.4 -20,662.3 -14,881.2

2092 1.1 72.7 5,853.8 -6,627.8 20,319.1 -20,963.0 -15,109.3

2093 1.1 72.1 5,925.8 -6,760.6 20,202.9 -21,259.9 -15,334.1

2094 1.1 71.5 5,997.4 -6,891.4 20,085.9 -21,553.7 -15,556.4

2095 1.1 71.0 6,068.4 -7,020.6 19,968.5 -21,845.0 -15,776.7

2096 1.1 70.5 6,138.9 -7,149.0 19,850.2 -22,134.3 -15,995.4

2097 1.1 70.1 6,209.0 -7,277.0 19,730.8 -22,422.2 -16,213.2

2098 1.1 69.7 6,278.8 -7,405.2 19,610.4 -22,709.3 -16,430.5

Total 2023-2097 6,209.0

Notes: Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report.

 Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.3%. Office of the Chief Actuary

1 Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption Social Security Administration

 that the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury. January 25, 2024

Calendar

Year

"You Earned It, You Keep It Act", Introduced by Representative Craig

Proposal General Fund Transfers Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2023

Proposal

Total OASDI

Trust Fund

Reserves 

at End of Year

Theoretical Social Security1

with Borrowing Authority

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of Net OASDI Trust Fund Reserves at End of Year
Table 1b - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget Scoring1

 and Federal Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI (Present Value Dollars)

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow2

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year3

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Cash Flow

Change in Total

Federal Debt

 Subject to Limit 

End Of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2025 58.5 163.4 104.8 -104.8 104.8 -58.5 58.5 -58.5

2026 70.8 186.0 115.2 -220.0 117.7 -70.8 129.3 -72.2

2027 74.7 197.3 122.6 -342.7 128.3 -74.7 204.0 -78.0

2028 78.3 208.4 130.1 -472.7 139.3 -78.3 282.3 -83.8

2029 82.1 219.4 137.3 -610.1 150.8 -82.1 364.4 -90.1

2030 86.2 230.4 144.2 -754.2 162.5 -86.2 450.6 -97.2

2031 90.2 241.6 151.4 -905.6 175.6 -90.2 540.8 -104.7

2032 94.2 251.8 157.5 -1,063.1 189.1 -94.2 635.0 -113.0

2033 95.5 260.3 164.8 -1,227.9 207.8 -95.5 730.5 -121.2

2034 96.1 267.4 171.3 -1,399.2 225.0 -96.1 826.6 -128.1

2035 96.3 267.4 171.0 -1,570.2 233.3 -96.3 923.0 -133.2

2036 96.4 265.2 168.8 -1,739.0 239.3 -96.4 1019.4 -137.8

2037 96.4 262.8 166.4 -1,905.5 244.8 -96.4 1115.8 -142.3

2038 96.2 260.3 164.1 -2,069.6 250.2 -96.2 1212.0 -146.6

2039 95.9 257.9 161.9 -2,231.5 255.6 -95.9 1307.9 -150.8

2040 95.5 255.4 159.9 -2,391.4 261.0 -95.5 1403.5 -154.8

2041 95.0 252.9 157.9 -2,549.3 266.3 -95.0 1498.5 -158.7

2042 94.4 250.5 156.0 -2,705.3 271.7 -94.4 1592.9 -162.4

2043 93.8 248.0 154.2 -2,859.5 276.9 -93.8 1686.7 -166.1

2044 93.3 245.6 152.3 -3,011.8 282.1 -93.3 1780.0 -169.8

2045 92.7 243.2 150.5 -3,162.2 287.2 -92.7 1872.7 -173.5

2046 92.2 240.8 148.6 -3,310.8 292.2 -92.2 1964.9 -177.2

2047 91.7 238.5 146.8 -3,457.6 297.1 -91.7 2056.6 -180.9

2048 91.2 236.2 145.0 -3,602.6 301.9 -91.2 2147.8 -184.6

2049 90.8 234.0 143.2 -3,745.8 306.7 -90.8 2238.6 -188.3

2050 90.4 231.8 141.4 -3,887.2 311.4 -90.4 2329.1 -192.1

2051 90.1 229.7 139.7 -4,026.9 316.1 -90.1 2419.1 -195.8

2052 89.7 227.7 137.9 -4,164.8 320.7 -89.7 2508.9 -199.6

2053 89.5 225.6 136.1 -4,300.9 325.2 -89.5 2598.3 -203.3

2054 89.2 223.5 134.3 -4,435.2 329.5 -89.2 2687.6 -207.2

2055 89.0 221.5 132.4 -4,567.6 333.7 -89.0 2776.6 -211.0

2056 88.9 219.4 130.5 -4,698.1 337.9 -88.9 2865.5 -214.9

2057 88.8 217.5 128.6 -4,826.8 341.9 -88.8 2954.3 -218.9

2058 88.8 215.5 126.8 -4,953.5 345.9 -88.8 3043.1 -222.9

2059 88.7 213.6 124.9 -5,078.5 349.8 -88.7 3131.8 -226.8

2060 88.6 211.7 123.1 -5,201.5 353.6 -88.6 3220.4 -230.8

2061 88.5 209.8 121.3 -5,322.9 357.5 -88.5 3308.8 -234.6

2062 88.3 207.9 119.6 -5,442.5 361.3 -88.3 3397.1 -238.5

2063 88.1 206.1 118.0 -5,560.5 365.1 -88.1 3485.2 -242.3

2064 87.8 204.2 116.4 -5,676.9 368.8 -87.8 3573.0 -246.0

2065 87.6 202.4 114.8 -5,791.8 372.5 -87.6 3660.6 -249.8

2066 87.3 200.6 113.3 -5,905.1 376.2 -87.3 3747.9 -253.5

2067 87.0 198.8 111.8 -6,016.8 379.8 -87.0 3834.9 -257.1

2068 86.7 197.0 110.3 -6,127.2 383.5 -86.7 3921.6 -260.8

2069 86.4 195.3 108.9 -6,236.1 387.0 -86.4 4008.0 -264.4

2070 86.1 193.5 107.5 -6,343.5 390.5 -86.1 4094.0 -268.0

2071 85.7 191.8 106.1 -6,449.7 394.1 -85.7 4179.8 -271.6

2072 85.4 190.2 104.8 -6,554.4 397.6 -85.4 4265.1 -275.1

2073 85.0 188.5 103.5 -6,657.9 401.0 -85.0 4350.2 -278.6

2074 84.7 186.9 102.2 -6,760.1 404.4 -84.7 4434.9 -282.2

2075 84.3 185.3 101.0 -6,861.1 407.9 -84.3 4519.1 -285.6

2076 83.9 183.8 99.9 -6,961.1 411.4 -83.9 4603.0 -289.0

2077 83.4 182.3 99.0 -7,060.1 415.0 -83.4 4686.4 -292.3

2078 82.8 180.9 98.1 -7,158.2 418.6 -82.8 4769.2 -295.5

2079 82.2 179.6 97.4 -7,255.5 422.3 -82.2 4851.4 -298.7

2080 81.6 178.2 96.7 -7,352.2 426.0 -81.6 4932.9 -301.8

2081 80.9 177.0 96.1 -7,448.3 429.8 -80.9 5013.8 -304.8

2082 80.2 175.7 95.6 -7,543.9 433.7 -80.2 5094.0 -307.8

2083 79.5 174.6 95.1 -7,639.0 437.5 -79.5 5173.4 -310.7

2084 78.7 173.4 94.7 -7,733.7 441.5 -78.7 5252.1 -313.5

2085 77.9 172.3 94.4 -7,828.1 445.5 -77.9 5330.0 -316.3

2086 77.1 171.2 94.1 -7,922.2 449.4 -77.1 5407.2 -319.1

2087 76.3 170.2 93.9 -8,016.1 453.5 -76.3 5483.5 -321.8

2088 75.5 169.2 93.6 -8,109.7 457.5 -75.5 5559.0 -324.4

2089 74.8 168.1 93.4 -8,203.1 461.5 -74.8 5633.8 -327.1

2090 74.0 167.1 93.1 -8,296.2 465.5 -74.0 5707.8 -329.8

2091 73.3 166.1 92.8 -8,389.0 469.4 -73.3 5781.1 -332.4

2092 72.7 165.1 92.5 -8,481.5 473.3 -72.7 5853.8 -335.1

2093 72.1 164.1 92.0 -8,573.5 477.0 -72.1 5925.8 -337.8

2094 71.5 163.0 91.5 -8,665.0 480.7 -71.5 5997.4 -340.5

2095 71.0 162.0 91.0 -8,756.0 484.3 -71.0 6068.4 -343.3

2096 70.5 161.0 90.4 -8,846.4 487.9 -70.5 6138.9 -346.0

2097 70.1 159.9 89.8 -8,936.2 491.3 -70.1 6209.0 -348.8

Total 2023-2097 6,209.0 15,145.2 8,936.2

Notes: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report.

 Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.3%.

1 Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would nonetheless be paid,

 based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public.

2

 On-budget cash flows reflect reimbursement from the General Fund of the Treasury to the OASI and DI Trust Funds making up for the Office of the Chief Actuary

 elimination of taxation of Social Security benefits. Effects for the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund are not reflected in this table. Social Security Administration 3

 New revenues from the proposal reduce theoretical debt held by the public. 

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2023

January 25, 2024

"You Earned It, You Keep It Act", Introduced by Representative Craig
Table 1b.n - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget Scoring1

 and Federal Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI (Nominal Dollars)

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow2

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year3 4

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance1

Change in 

Annual On 

Budget Cash 

Flow

Change in Total

Federal Debt 

Subject to Limit 

End of Year1

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance1

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2025 62.1 173.1 111.1 -112.3 112.3 -62.1 63.0 -63.0

2026 76.9 201.9 125.0 -241.7 129.3 -76.9 142.6 -79.6

2027 83.2 219.6 136.5 -386.3 144.7 -83.2 230.9 -88.3

2028 89.6 238.2 148.7 -547.7 161.4 -89.6 328.5 -97.5

2029 96.6 258.0 161.4 -727.1 179.4 -96.6 436.4 -107.9

2030 104.5 279.1 174.5 -925.8 198.7 -104.5 556.5 -120.1

2031 112.8 302.0 189.2 -1,145.8 220.0 -112.8 690.1 -133.6

2032 121.9 325.6 203.7 -1,386.0 240.2 -121.9 839.7 -149.6

Total 2023-2032 747.5 1,997.6 1,250.0 -747.5

Notes: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report.

1 Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would nonetheless

 be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public.

2

 On-budget cash flows reflect reimbursement from the General Fund of the Treasury to the OASI and DI Trust Funds making up for the 

 elimination of taxation of Social Security benefits. Effects for the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund are not reflected in this table. Office of the Chief Actuary 3

 New revenues from the proposal reduce theoretical debt held by the public. Social Security Administration 4

 Includes the accumulated effect of interest income.

Billions of Nominal Dollars

January 25, 2024

"You Earned It, You Keep It Act", Introduced by Representative Craig
Table 1c - Current Law and Proposal Cost, Expenditures, and Income: As Percent of Gross Domestic Product

Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

2023 5.22 5.22 4.77 5.22 5.22 4.77

2024 5.37 5.37 4.65 5.37 5.37 4.65

2025 5.45 5.45 4.70 5.45 5.45 5.30

2026 5.52 5.52 4.74 5.52 5.52 5.41

2027 5.59 5.59 4.76 5.59 5.59 5.46

2028 5.66 5.66 4.78 5.66 5.66 5.51

2029 5.73 5.73 4.80 5.73 5.73 5.55

2030 5.79 5.79 4.81 5.79 5.79 5.59

2031 5.84 5.84 4.82 5.84 5.84 5.64

2032 5.88 5.88 4.82 5.88 5.88 5.67

2033 5.92 5.92 4.82 5.92 5.92 5.69

2034 5.95 5.22 4.81 5.95 5.95 5.72

2035 5.97 4.81 4.81 5.98 5.98 5.72

2036 5.99 4.80 4.80 6.00 6.00 5.71

2037 6.01 4.80 4.80 6.01 6.01 5.70

2038 6.02 4.79 4.79 6.03 6.03 5.70

2039 6.03 4.79 4.79 6.04 6.04 5.69

2040 6.03 4.78 4.78 6.04 6.04 5.68

2041 6.03 4.77 4.77 6.04 6.04 5.67

2042 6.02 4.76 4.76 6.03 6.03 5.66

2043 6.02 4.76 4.76 6.03 6.03 5.65

2044 6.01 4.75 4.75 6.03 6.03 5.65

2045 6.01 4.74 4.74 6.02 6.02 5.64

2046 6.01 4.74 4.74 6.02 6.02 5.63

2047 6.00 4.73 4.73 6.02 6.02 5.62

2048 6.00 4.72 4.72 6.02 6.02 5.61

2049 6.00 4.72 4.72 6.02 6.02 5.61

2050 6.01 4.71 4.71 6.03 6.03 5.60

2051 6.01 4.70 4.70 6.03 6.03 5.59

2052 6.01 4.70 4.70 6.04 6.04 5.59

2053 6.02 4.69 4.69 6.05 6.05 5.58

2054 6.03 4.69 4.69 6.06 5.73 5.58

2055 6.05 4.68 4.68 6.08 5.57 5.57

2056 6.07 4.68 4.68 6.10 5.56 5.56

2057 6.08 4.67 4.67 6.12 5.56 5.56

2058 6.10 4.67 4.67 6.14 5.55 5.55

2059 6.12 4.67 4.67 6.16 5.55 5.55

2060 6.14 4.66 4.66 6.18 5.55 5.55

2061 6.16 4.66 4.66 6.20 5.54 5.54

2062 6.18 4.66 4.66 6.22 5.54 5.54

2063 6.19 4.65 4.65 6.23 5.53 5.53

2064 6.21 4.65 4.65 6.25 5.53 5.53

2065 6.22 4.64 4.64 6.26 5.52 5.52

2066 6.23 4.64 4.64 6.28 5.52 5.52

2067 6.25 4.64 4.64 6.29 5.51 5.51

2068 6.26 4.63 4.63 6.30 5.51 5.51

2069 6.27 4.63 4.63 6.32 5.51 5.51

2070 6.28 4.63 4.63 6.33 5.50 5.50

2071 6.30 4.62 4.62 6.34 5.50 5.50

2072 6.31 4.62 4.62 6.35 5.49 5.49

2073 6.32 4.62 4.62 6.37 5.49 5.49

2074 6.33 4.61 4.61 6.38 5.49 5.49

2075 6.33 4.61 4.61 6.38 5.48 5.48

2076 6.33 4.61 4.61 6.39 5.48 5.48

2077 6.33 4.60 4.60 6.38 5.47 5.47

2078 6.33 4.60 4.60 6.38 5.47 5.47

2079 6.32 4.59 4.59 6.37 5.46 5.46

2080 6.30 4.59 4.59 6.36 5.46 5.46

2081 6.29 4.59 4.59 6.34 5.45 5.45

2082 6.27 4.58 4.58 6.32 5.45 5.45

2083 6.25 4.58 4.58 6.30 5.44 5.44

2084 6.22 4.57 4.57 6.27 5.44 5.44

2085 6.20 4.57 4.57 6.25 5.43 5.43

2086 6.17 4.56 4.56 6.22 5.43 5.43

2087 6.14 4.56 4.56 6.19 5.42 5.42

2088 6.11 4.55 4.55 6.16 5.42 5.42

2089 6.08 4.55 4.55 6.14 5.41 5.41

2090 6.06 4.54 4.54 6.11 5.41 5.41

2091 6.04 4.54 4.54 6.09 5.40 5.40

2092 6.02 4.53 4.53 6.07 5.40 5.40

2093 6.00 4.53 4.53 6.06 5.39 5.39

2094 5.99 4.53 4.53 6.04 5.39 5.39

2095 5.99 4.52 4.52 6.04 5.38 5.38

2096 5.98 4.52 4.52 6.03 5.38 5.38

2097 5.98 4.52 4.52 6.03 5.38 5.38

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Note: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report.

Current Law OASDI Proposal OASDI

Calendar

Year

January 25, 2024

"You Earned It, You Keep It Act", Introduced by Representative Craig
Table 1d - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Reserves / Unfunded Obligation (Present Value Dollars)

Year

Current Law OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Total Change

Through

End of Year

Proposal OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) = cumulative sum(4) (6) = (1)+(5)

2023 2,713.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,713.0

2024 2,522.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,522.6

2025 2,318.9 163.4 0.0 163.4 163.4 2,482.3

2026 2,102.7 185.8 -0.2 186.0 349.4 2,452.1

2027 1,868.6 197.1 -0.2 197.3 546.6 2,415.2

2028 1,616.7 208.2 -0.2 208.4 755.0 2,371.7

2029 1,347.3 219.4 -0.1 219.4 974.4 2,321.7

2030 1,061.3 230.4 0.1 230.4 1,204.8 2,266.1

2031 761.5 241.8 0.2 241.6 1,446.4 2,207.9

2032 447.8 252.1 0.4 251.8 1,698.2 2,146.0

2033 122.1 260.8 0.5 260.3 1,958.5 2,080.5

2034 -213.2 268.2 0.8 267.4 2,225.9 2,012.7

2035 -555.4 268.3 1.0 267.4 2,493.2 1,937.9

2036 -902.4 266.4 1.2 265.2 2,758.4 1,856.0

2037 -1,254.1 264.3 1.5 262.8 3,021.2 1,767.2

2038 -1,608.5 262.1 1.8 260.3 3,281.6 1,673.1

2039 -1,964.5 260.0 2.1 257.9 3,539.4 1,574.9

2040 -2,320.7 257.8 2.4 255.4 3,794.8 1,474.1

2041 -2,675.8 255.6 2.7 252.9 4,047.8 1,371.9

2042 -3,029.0 253.5 3.0 250.5 4,298.2 1,269.2

2043 -3,380.1 251.4 3.4 248.0 4,546.2 1,166.1

2044 -3,729.4 249.2 3.7 245.6 4,791.8 1,062.4

2045 -4,077.1 247.2 4.0 243.2 5,034.9 957.8

2046 -4,423.4 245.2 4.4 240.8 5,275.7 852.3

2047 -4,768.7 243.2 4.7 238.5 5,514.2 745.5

2048 -5,113.1 241.3 5.1 236.2 5,750.4 637.3

2049 -5,457.2 239.4 5.4 234.0 5,984.4 527.2

2050 -5,801.2 237.6 5.7 231.8 6,216.3 415.1

2051 -6,145.1 235.8 6.1 229.7 6,446.0 300.9

2052 -6,489.8 234.1 6.4 227.7 6,673.7 183.8

2053 -6,835.9 232.3 6.7 225.6 6,899.2 63.4

2054 -7,183.9 230.6 7.1 223.5 7,122.8 -61.2

2055 -7,534.7 228.9 7.4 221.5 7,344.2 -190.5

2056 -7,888.6 227.2 7.7 219.4 7,563.6 -325.0

2057 -8,246.0 225.5 8.0 217.5 7,781.1 -464.9

2058 -8,607.1 223.9 8.3 215.5 7,996.6 -610.5

2059 -8,972.0 222.2 8.6 213.6 8,210.2 -761.8

2060 -9,340.3 220.6 8.9 211.7 8,421.9 -918.4

2061 -9,711.5 219.0 9.2 209.8 8,631.7 -1,079.8

2062 -10,085.2 217.4 9.4 207.9 8,839.6 -1,245.6

2063 -10,461.1 215.7 9.7 206.1 9,045.7 -1,415.4

2064 -10,838.7 214.1 9.9 204.2 9,249.9 -1,588.8

2065 -11,218.0 212.5 10.1 202.4 9,452.4 -1,765.6

2066 -11,598.6 210.9 10.3 200.6 9,652.9 -1,945.7

2067 -11,980.4 209.3 10.5 198.8 9,851.7 -2,128.7

2068 -12,363.4 207.6 10.6 197.0 10,048.8 -2,314.6

2069 -12,747.5 206.0 10.7 195.3 10,244.1 -2,503.5

2070 -13,132.8 204.4 10.9 193.5 10,437.6 -2,695.2

2071 -13,518.8 202.8 11.0 191.8 10,629.4 -2,889.3

2072 -13,905.3 201.2 11.1 190.2 10,819.6 -3,085.7

2073 -14,292.2 199.7 11.2 188.5 11,008.1 -3,284.1

2074 -14,679.2 198.1 11.2 186.9 11,195.0 -3,484.2

2075 -15,065.7 196.6 11.3 185.3 11,380.3 -3,685.4

2076 -15,450.9 195.1 11.3 183.8 11,564.1 -3,886.8

2077 -15,834.0 193.7 11.4 182.3 11,746.4 -4,087.6

2078 -16,214.3 192.3 11.4 180.9 11,927.3 -4,286.9

2079 -16,590.8 190.9 11.4 179.6 12,106.9 -4,483.9

2080 -16,962.8 189.6 11.3 178.2 12,285.1 -4,677.7

2081 -17,330.0 188.3 11.3 177.0 12,462.1 -4,867.9

2082 -17,691.7 187.0 11.3 175.7 12,637.8 -5,053.9

2083 -18,047.7 185.8 11.2 174.6 12,812.4 -5,235.3

2084 -18,397.4 184.5 11.1 173.4 12,985.8 -5,411.6

2085 -18,740.7 183.4 11.1 172.3 13,158.1 -5,582.5

2086 -19,077.2 182.2 11.0 171.2 13,329.4 -5,747.8

2087 -19,406.9 181.1 10.9 170.2 13,499.6 -5,907.4

2088 -19,729.9 179.9 10.8 169.2 13,668.7 -6,061.1

2089 -20,046.4 178.8 10.7 168.1 13,836.9 -6,209.5

2090 -20,357.0 177.7 10.6 167.1 14,004.0 -6,353.0

2091 -20,662.3 176.6 10.5 166.1 14,170.1 -6,492.2

2092 -20,963.0 175.5 10.4 165.1 14,335.2 -6,627.8

2093 -21,259.9 174.4 10.3 164.1 14,499.3 -6,760.6

2094 -21,553.7 173.3 10.3 163.0 14,662.4 -6,891.4

2095 -21,845.0 172.2 10.2 162.0 14,824.4 -7,020.6

2096 -22,134.3 171.1 10.1 161.0 14,985.3 -7,149.0

2097 -22,422.2 170.0 10.1 159.9 15,145.2 -7,277.0

Total 2023-2097 15,669.5 524.3 15,145.2

Office of the Chief Actuary

Notes: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration

 Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.3%. January 25, 2024

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2023

"You Earned It, You Keep It Act", Introduced by Representative Craig
Table 1d.n - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Reserves / Unfunded Obligation (Nominal Dollars)

Year

Current Law OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Total Change

Through

End of Year1

Proposal OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) (6) = (1)+(5)

2023 2,776.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,776.7

2024 2,642.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,642.8

2025 2,487.7 175.3 0.0 175.3 175.3 2,663.1

2026 2,312.0 208.8 -0.2 209.0 384.3 2,696.4

2027 2,108.7 232.7 -0.2 232.9 617.2 2,725.9

2028 1,875.1 258.7 -0.2 258.9 876.1 2,751.2

2029 1,608.3 287.3 -0.1 287.4 1,163.5 2,771.8

2030 1,306.2 318.8 0.1 318.8 1,482.3 2,788.5

2031 968.3 353.9 0.2 353.6 1,835.9 2,804.3

2032 589.9 390.3 0.5 389.8 2,225.7 2,815.7

Notes: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

 Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.3%. Social Security Administration 1 Includes the effect of accumulated interest income. January 25, 2024

(Billions of Nominal Dollars)

"You Earned It, You Keep It Act", Introduced by Representative Craig