SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE, MD 21235-0001

SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

January 31, 2018

The Honorable Thomas A. Garrett, Jr.

United States House of Representatives

Washington, D.C. 20515

Dear Representative Garrett:

Enactment of H.R. 4584, the “Student Security Act of 2017”, which you introduced on 

December 7, 2017, would provide individuals with the option of partial student loan 

“forgiveness” in exchange for voluntarily raising key eligibility ages for Social Security retired 

worker benefits, specifically the earliest eligibility age (EEA) and the normal retirement age 

(NRA). We have enjoyed working with Elliott Harding and Hallie Pence of your staff in the 

development of the Bill, and have produced the estimates included here reflecting our 

understanding of the intended effects of enactment of the Bill. Development of these estimates 

reflects the efforts of many in our office, but particularly Karen Glenn, Chris Chaplain, Daniel 

Nickerson, and Kyle Burkhalter.

Under current law, individuals can first begin receiving Social Security retirement benefits at age 

62 (the EEA). The age at which retirement benefits equal the primary insurance amount is the 

NRA, which under current law is gradually increasing, and will be age 67 for those attaining age 

62 in 2022 and later. H.R. 4584 (hereafter referred to as the Bill) specifies that for every $550 (in 

2018 dollars) in student loan balance that a person chooses to have forgiven, his or her EEA and 

NRA would be increased by one month. Our understanding of the intent of the Bill is that the 

student loan forgiveness program would be first implemented in 2019, allowing any eligible 

individual who has previously graduated with a degree or ceased full time enrollment the 

opportunity to have a portion of any outstanding eligible Federal Direct loan forgiven in that 

year. For eligible individuals graduating with a degree or ceasing full time enrollment in each 

year 2020 through 2033, forgiveness of a portion of the loan would be allowed in that year, and 

in the 4 years after completion of education. The increases in EEA and NRA are limited to a 

maximum of 73 months, equivalent to $40,150 in student loan forgiveness in 2018 dollars. We 

understand that the intent of the Bill is that the $550 level would increase after 2018 based on 

changes in the national average wage index. In developing our estimates, we have assumed that 

one-half of eligible student loan amounts would be forgiven with this offer. The General Fund 

of the Treasury would incur the cost of the student loan amounts forgiven.

The estimates provided in this letter reflect the intermediate assumptions of the 2017 Trustees 

Report. Accordingly, as shown in the attached Table 1, we estimate that the long-range OASDI 
Page 2 – The Honorable Thomas A. Garrett, Jr.

actuarial deficit would decrease from 2.83 percent of payroll under current law to 2.52 percent of 

payroll assuming enactment of the Bill. 

The only direct effects of the Bill on the OASI and DI Trust Funds are the increases to

individuals’ EEA and NRA, which on balance lower benefit cost for the OASDI program. 

However, the cost of student loan amounts forgiven would be incurred by the General Fund of 

the Treasury, so the effects of the Bill for the General Fund of the Treasury would be a cost. On a 

budget accounting basis, the operations of the OASI and DI Trust Funds are considered “offbudget,” while the other operations of the federal government which are financed through the 

General Fund of the Treasury are considered “on-budget”. The “unified budget” incorporates 

both the off-budget and on-budget financial operations. 

Table 1b shows “off-budget”, “unified budget” and “on-budget” effects of the Bill on a present 

value basis (amounts discounted to January 1, 2017 using the projected Trust Fund interest 

rates). Column 2 shows the annual cash flow off-budget effects to the combined OASI and DI 

Trust Funds from the EEA and NRA increases. Columns 3 through 5 represent the unified 

budget effect from loan forgiveness from the General Fund and the EEA and NRA increases. 

Column 4 shows that we estimate a net $160 billion present value increase in publicly held debt 

in 2019, rising to $584 billion in 2033, from the amounts of student loan forgiveness financed by 

the General Fund. The overall change to debt held by the public improves through the end of the

projection period, and by 2091 we estimate a $726 billion in present value decrease in publicly 

held debt, as the increases in EEA and NRA result in less benefits paid in the latter part of the 

projection period. Columns 6 through 8 represent only the “on-budget” effect from the student 

loan forgiveness program. For years 2019 and 2020 the annual cash flow effects are large, 

reflecting amounts forgiven from existing student loan holders. Effects are smaller through the 

program’s sunset in 2037, as individuals become new student loan holders and some choose to 

have their student loan amounts forgiven. Overall, we estimate a $706 billion in present value 

increase in publicly held debt from loan forgiveness.

Table 1b.n shows the same information, but in nominal dollars. In this table, we show nominal 

dollar effects through 2027. 

Please let me know if we may be of any further assistance on this or any other matter related to 

Social Security.

Sincerely,

 

Stephen C. Goss, ASA, MAAA

Chief Actuary

Enclosures
Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2017 13.41 13.03 -0.38 298 0.00 0.00 0.00

2018 13.49 12.93 -0.56 287 0.00 0.00 0.00

2019 13.70 12.95 -0.75 273 0.00 0.00 0.00

2020 13.85 12.96 -0.89 259 0.00 0.00 0.00

2021 14.01 12.99 -1.02 245 -0.01 0.00 0.01

2022 14.24 13.02 -1.22 230 -0.02 0.00 0.02

2023 14.52 13.05 -1.47 215 -0.03 0.00 0.03

2024 14.78 13.08 -1.70 200 -0.05 0.00 0.05

2025 15.04 13.10 -1.93 184 -0.06 0.00 0.06

2026 15.29 13.14 -2.16 167 -0.08 0.00 0.08

2027 15.52 13.15 -2.37 150 -0.10 0.00 0.10

2028 15.74 13.17 -2.57 133 -0.11 0.00 0.11

2029 15.94 13.18 -2.76 116 -0.13 0.00 0.13

2030 16.12 13.20 -2.93 98 -0.14 0.00 0.14

2031 16.29 13.21 -3.08 81 -0.16 0.00 0.16

2032 16.44 13.22 -3.22 62 -0.17 0.00 0.17

2033 16.56 13.23 -3.34 43 -0.18 0.00 0.18

2034 16.66 13.23 -3.43 24 -0.19 0.00 0.19

2035 16.73 13.24 -3.49 4 -0.20 0.00 0.20

2036 16.78 13.24 -3.54 ---- -0.21 0.00 0.21

2037 16.80 13.25 -3.56 ---- -0.22 0.00 0.21

2038 16.80 13.25 -3.55 ---- -0.22 0.00 0.22

2039 16.76 13.25 -3.52 ---- -0.24 0.00 0.23

2040 16.72 13.24 -3.47 ---- -0.25 0.00 0.24

2041 16.66 13.24 -3.42 ---- -0.26 0.00 0.25

2042 16.59 13.24 -3.35 ---- -0.27 0.00 0.27

2043 16.53 13.24 -3.29 ---- -0.28 0.00 0.28

2044 16.47 13.23 -3.23 ---- -0.29 0.00 0.29

2045 16.41 13.23 -3.18 ---- -0.31 0.00 0.30

2046 16.36 13.23 -3.13 ---- -0.32 0.00 0.32

2047 16.31 13.23 -3.08 ---- -0.34 0.00 0.33

2048 16.26 13.23 -3.04 ---- -0.35 0.00 0.35

2049 16.22 13.23 -2.99 ---- -0.37 0.00 0.36

2050 16.18 13.23 -2.96 ---- -0.38 0.00 0.38

2051 16.15 13.23 -2.93 ---- -0.40 -0.01 0.40

2052 16.14 13.23 -2.91 ---- -0.42 -0.01 0.41

2053 16.13 13.23 -2.90 ---- -0.44 -0.01 0.43

2054 16.14 13.23 -2.91 ---- -0.45 -0.01 0.45

2055 16.15 13.23 -2.92 ---- -0.47 -0.01 0.46

2056 16.17 13.23 -2.94 ---- -0.48 -0.01 0.48

2057 16.20 13.24 -2.96 ---- -0.50 -0.01 0.49

2058 16.22 13.24 -2.98 ---- -0.52 -0.01 0.51

2059 16.27 13.24 -3.02 ---- -0.52 -0.01 0.51

2060 16.31 13.25 -3.06 ---- -0.52 -0.01 0.51

2061 16.36 13.25 -3.11 ---- -0.52 -0.01 0.51

2062 16.40 13.25 -3.15 ---- -0.52 -0.01 0.51

2063 16.45 13.26 -3.19 ---- -0.52 -0.01 0.52

2064 16.49 13.26 -3.23 ---- -0.52 -0.01 0.52

2065 16.54 13.26 -3.28 ---- -0.53 -0.01 0.52

2066 16.58 13.26 -3.32 ---- -0.54 -0.01 0.53

2067 16.63 13.27 -3.36 ---- -0.54 -0.01 0.53

2068 16.68 13.27 -3.41 ---- -0.55 -0.01 0.54

2069 16.73 13.27 -3.45 ---- -0.55 -0.01 0.54

2070 16.77 13.28 -3.50 ---- -0.55 -0.01 0.55

2071 16.81 13.28 -3.53 ---- -0.56 -0.01 0.55

2072 16.85 13.28 -3.57 ---- -0.56 -0.01 0.55

2073 16.88 13.28 -3.60 ---- -0.57 -0.01 0.55

2074 16.93 13.28 -3.64 ---- -0.55 -0.01 0.54

2075 16.97 13.28 -3.69 ---- -0.53 -0.01 0.52

2076 17.00 13.28 -3.72 ---- -0.51 -0.02 0.50

2077 17.03 13.28 -3.75 ---- -0.50 -0.02 0.48

2078 17.04 13.28 -3.76 ---- -0.48 -0.02 0.46

2079 17.05 13.28 -3.77 ---- -0.47 -0.02 0.45

2080 17.05 13.27 -3.78 ---- -0.46 -0.02 0.43

2081 17.06 13.27 -3.79 ---- -0.45 -0.03 0.42

2082 17.07 13.27 -3.80 ---- -0.43 -0.02 0.41

2083 17.09 13.27 -3.82 ---- -0.42 -0.02 0.39

2084 17.12 13.27 -3.85 ---- -0.40 -0.02 0.38

2085 17.16 13.28 -3.88 ---- -0.39 -0.02 0.37

2086 17.20 13.28 -3.92 ---- -0.38 -0.02 0.36

2087 17.25 13.28 -3.97 ---- -0.36 -0.02 0.34

2088 17.31 13.29 -4.02 ---- -0.35 -0.02 0.33

2089 17.37 13.29 -4.08 ---- -0.33 -0.02 0.32

2090 17.43 13.29 -4.14 ---- -0.32 -0.02 0.30

2091 17.49 13.30 -4.20 ---- -0.30 -0.02 0.29

2092 17.56 13.30 -4.26 ---- -0.29 -0.02 0.27

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

16.35% 13.83% -2.52% 2035 -0.31% -0.01% 0.31%

Office of the Chief Actuary

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2016 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration

1 Under present law the year of combined Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034.

Summarized Rates: OASDI

Year of reserve 

depletion1

Summarized Rates: OASDI

2017 - 2091

January 31, 2018

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll

Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

H.R. 4584, the “Student Security Act of 2017,” introduced by Representative Garrett 

(Note that the only effect of the Bill on the OASDI program results from the increase in EEA/NRA.)

Proposal Change from Present Law
Table 1b - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1

 (Present Value Dollars)

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers to 

OASDI

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow1

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Cash Flow2

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End Of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

2017 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2019 0.0 0.0 -160.5 160.5 -160.5 -160.5 160.5 -160.5

2020 0.0 0.2 -126.0 286.5 -130.8 -126.2 286.7 -131.0

2021 0.0 0.6 -53.2 339.8 -61.9 -53.9 340.6 -62.5

2022 0.0 1.3 -53.6 393.4 -64.1 -54.9 395.5 -65.4

2023 0.0 2.0 -54.0 447.3 -66.5 -56.0 451.5 -68.6

2024 0.0 3.7 -19.0 466.4 -33.8 -22.8 474.3 -37.6

2025 0.0 5.0 -17.9 484.3 -33.8 -22.9 497.2 -39.1

2026 0.0 6.5 -16.7 501.0 -33.9 -23.1 520.3 -40.8

2027 0.0 7.8 -15.5 516.5 -34.9 -23.3 543.6 -43.5

2028 0.0 9.1 -14.3 530.7 -35.8 -23.4 567.0 -46.1

2029 0.0 10.3 -13.0 543.7 -36.8 -23.3 590.4 -48.8

2030 0.0 11.4 -11.7 555.5 -37.8 -23.2 613.5 -51.5

2031 0.0 12.3 -10.6 566.0 -38.9 -22.9 636.4 -54.2

2032 0.0 13.1 -9.4 575.5 -38.3 -22.5 658.9 -55.0

2033 0.0 13.8 -8.4 583.9 -37.7 -22.2 681.1 -55.8

2034 0.0 14.4 1.7 582.2 -28.1 -12.7 693.9 -47.4

2035 0.0 15.0 9.0 573.2 -20.7 -6.0 699.9 -41.4

2036 0.0 15.4 11.6 561.6 -17.7 -3.9 703.8 -39.6

2037 0.0 15.9 14.0 547.6 -14.6 -1.9 705.7 -37.7

2038 0.0 16.3 16.3 531.3 -11.6 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2039 0.0 17.0 17.0 514.4 -10.1 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2040 0.0 17.5 17.5 496.8 -8.7 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2041 0.0 18.1 18.1 478.7 -7.2 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2042 0.0 18.8 18.8 460.0 -5.6 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2043 0.0 19.4 19.4 440.5 -4.0 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2044 0.0 20.1 20.1 420.4 -2.3 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2045 0.0 20.9 20.9 399.5 -0.5 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2046 0.0 21.6 21.6 377.9 1.3 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2047 0.0 22.4 22.4 355.5 3.2 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2048 0.0 23.2 23.2 332.2 5.1 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2049 0.0 24.1 24.1 308.2 7.1 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2050 0.0 24.9 24.9 283.3 9.2 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2051 0.0 25.8 25.8 257.5 11.4 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2052 0.0 26.7 26.7 230.8 13.6 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2053 0.0 27.5 27.5 203.3 15.7 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2054 0.0 28.2 28.2 175.1 17.8 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2055 0.0 28.9 28.9 146.2 20.0 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2056 0.0 29.5 29.5 116.7 22.1 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2057 0.0 30.2 30.2 86.5 24.2 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2058 0.0 30.7 30.7 55.8 26.3 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2059 0.0 30.5 30.5 25.2 27.7 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2060 0.0 30.3 30.3 -5.1 29.0 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2061 0.0 30.0 30.0 -35.1 30.2 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2062 0.0 29.7 29.7 -64.8 31.5 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2063 0.0 29.5 29.5 -94.3 32.8 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2064 0.0 29.3 29.3 -123.6 34.1 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2065 0.0 29.3 29.3 -152.9 35.6 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2066 0.0 29.2 29.2 -182.1 37.0 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2067 0.0 29.2 29.2 -211.3 38.5 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2068 0.0 29.1 29.1 -240.4 39.9 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2069 0.0 29.0 29.0 -269.4 41.3 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2070 0.0 28.9 28.9 -298.3 42.7 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2071 0.0 28.9 28.9 -327.2 44.1 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2072 0.0 28.8 28.8 -356.1 45.5 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2073 0.0 28.5 28.5 -384.6 46.7 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2074 0.0 27.4 27.4 -412.0 47.0 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2075 0.0 26.1 26.1 -438.1 47.1 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2076 0.0 24.8 24.8 -463.0 47.1 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2077 0.0 23.6 23.6 -486.6 47.2 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2078 0.0 22.5 22.5 -509.1 47.3 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2079 0.0 21.6 21.6 -530.7 47.5 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2080 0.0 20.7 20.7 -551.3 47.7 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2081 0.0 19.8 19.8 -571.2 47.9 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2082 0.0 19.0 19.0 -590.1 48.1 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2083 0.0 18.2 18.2 -608.3 48.2 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2084 0.0 17.4 17.4 -625.7 48.4 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2085 0.0 16.6 16.6 -642.3 48.5 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2086 0.0 15.9 15.9 -658.3 48.7 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2087 0.0 15.2 15.2 -673.4 48.7 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2088 0.0 14.4 14.4 -687.9 48.7 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2089 0.0 13.6 13.6 -701.5 48.7 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2090 0.0 12.9 12.9 -714.4 48.6 0.0 705.7 -36.0

2091 0.0 12.1 12.1 -726.4 48.5 0.0 705.7 -36.0

Total 2017-2091 0.0 1,432.1 726.4 -705.7

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report.

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.7%.

Note: Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would 

 nonetheless be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. Office of the Chief Actuary

1 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table. Social Security Administration

2 On budget cash flow only includes student loan forgiveness. January 31, 2018

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2017

H.R. 4584, the “Student Security Act of 2017,” introduced by Representative Garrett
Table 1b.n - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1

 (Nominal Dollars)

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers 10 

OASDI

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow1

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Cash Flow2

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End Of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

2017 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2019 0.0 0.0 -172.7 175.5 -175.5 -172.7 175.5 -175.5

2020 0.0 0.2 -139.7 323.0 -147.6 -139.9 323.3 -147.8

2021 0.0 0.7 -60.8 395.2 -72.2 -61.6 396.2 -72.9

2022 0.0 1.5 -63.2 472.4 -77.2 -64.7 474.9 -78.7

2023 0.0 2.5 -65.7 555.1 -82.7 -68.2 560.2 -85.3

2024 0.0 4.7 -24.0 598.8 -43.7 -28.6 608.8 -48.6

2025 0.0 6.5 -23.3 644.1 -45.3 -29.8 661.1 -52.3

2026 0.0 8.7 -22.4 691.1 -47.0 -31.2 717.7 -56.6

2027 0.0 11.0 -21.7 741.4 -50.3 -32.6 780.2 -62.6

Total 2018-2027 35.8 -593.6 -629.4

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report.

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.7%.

Note: Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would 

 nonetheless be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. Office of the Chief Actuary

 1Unified budget cash flow includes effect of student loan forgiveness and increase in EEA/NRA. Social Security Administration

2On budget cash flow only includes student loan forgiveness. January 31, 2018

Billions of Nominal Dollars

H.R. 4584, the “Student Security Act of 2017,” introduced by Representative Garrett