SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE, MD 21235-0001

SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

January 31, 2023 

The Honorable Gwen Moore 

United States House of Representatives

Washington, D.C. 20515 

Dear Representative Moore: 

I am writing in response to your request for our estimates of the financial effects on Social 

Security of enacting the Social Security Enhancement and Protection Act of 2023, which you 

introduced today. The estimates provided here reflect the intermediate assumptions of the 2022 

Trustees Report. 

This Bill (hereafter referred to as the proposal) includes six provisions with direct effects on the 

Social Security trust funds. We have enjoyed working with Caroline Frauman of your staff. The 

estimates and analysis provided here reflect the combined effort of many in the Office of the 

Chief Actuary, but most particularly Karen Glenn, Daniel Nickerson, Kyle Burkhalter, Anna 

Kirjusina, Chris Chaplain, Katie Sutton, and Tiffany Bosley. 

The enclosed tables provide estimates of the effects of the six provisions on the cost, income, and 

combined trust fund reserves for the Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) 

program, as well as estimated effects on retired worker benefit levels for selected hypothetical 

workers and effects on payroll tax levels. In addition, tables 1b and 1b.n provide estimates of the 

federal budget implications of these six provisions with direct effects on the OASDI program. 

We estimate that enactment of these provisions would extend the ability of the OASDI program 

to pay scheduled benefits in full and on time for an additional 24 years. That is, the date of 

projected depletion of the combined OASI and DI Trust Fund reserves would be moved from 

2035 under current law to 2059 assuming enactment of the proposal, under the intermediate 

assumptions of the 2022 Trustees Report.

The proposal includes six provisions with direct effects on the OASDI program. The following 

list briefly describes these provisions: 

Section 2. Increase the special minimum primary insurance amount (PIA), beginning for 

workers who become newly eligible for retirement or disability benefits or die after 2023. The 

minimum PIA for workers becoming newly eligible or dying in 2024 with 30 or more years of 

work (YOWs) is 100 percent of the annual HHS poverty level for the prior year, divided by 

12. This percent is reduced by about 3 and 1/3 percentage points for each year by which the
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worker’s total number of YOWs is less than 30 years, with no minimum benefit for 10 or 

fewer YOWs. A worker’s number of YOWs is determined as the number of earned quarters of 

coverage (excluding quarters earned in years selected as YOWs based on child care) divided 

by 4 (ignoring any fraction), plus up to 5 years where the worker provided care for a child 

who was under age 6 and residing in the worker’s home, throughout the year. For workers 

becoming newly eligible or dying after 2024, the minimum PIA is indexed from 2024 to the 

year of their initial benefit eligibility by changes in the national average wage index (AWI). 

The minimum PIA is increased by the COLA after the year of initial eligibility.

Section 3. Provide a uniform PIA increase starting with the 16th calendar year after the year 

of initial eligibility. The PIA increase is a specified percent of the PIA of a worker with the 

same year of initial eligibility having career-average earnings equal to the AWI in years 

through the year before initial eligibility. The benefit increase phases in at 1 percent per year 

beginning with the 16th calendar year after the year of initial benefit eligibility, and is fully 

phased in at 5 percent beginning with the 20th calendar year after the year of initial benefit 

eligibility. Early retirement factors continue to apply to the PIA increases for retired workers 

who started receiving benefits before full retirement age. This provision is effective in 2024 

and later years.

Section 4. Extend benefit eligibility for children of retired, disabled, or deceased workers until 

they attain age 26, beginning in 2024. This provision applies if the child is a full-time student. 

Section 5 and Section 6. Eliminate the taxable maximum, and provide benefit credit for 

additional earnings taxed, fully effective in 2033. Phase in the elimination over 10 years by 

taxing all earnings above the current-law taxable maximum at a rate of 1.24 percent in 2024, 

2.48 percent in 2025, ..., and 12.40 percent in 2033 and later. Additional earnings taxed are 

creditable for benefit purposes. The PIA formula is changed by: (1) adding a new bend point 

at the current-law taxable maximum (without regard to this provision) for the second year 

prior to initial eligibility, divided by 12, and (2) applying a 3-percent PIA factor to average 

indexed monthly earnings (AIME) above the new bend point. 

Section 7. Increase the combined OASDI payroll tax rate to 13.0 percent, fully effective for 

2029 and later. The combined rate is increased by 0.1 percentage point each year starting in 

2024, reaching the ultimate 13.0 percent rate for 2029 and later.

The balance of this letter provides a summary of the effects of the six provisions on the actuarial 

status of the OASDI program, our understanding of the specifications and intent of each of the 

six provisions, and descriptions of our detailed financial estimates for trust fund operations, 

benefit levels, and implications for the federal budget. See the “Specification for Provisions of 

the Proposal” section of this letter for a more detailed description of these six provisions. 

Summary of Effects of the Proposal on OASDI Actuarial Status

Figure 1 illustrates the projected OASDI Trust Fund ratio through 2096 under current law and 

assuming enactment of the proposal. The trust fund ratio is defined as the combined OASI and 

DI Trust Fund reserves expressed as a percentage of annual program cost. Assuming enactment 

of the proposal, the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds are expected to be able to pay scheduled 
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benefits in full and on time for an additional 24 years, under the intermediate assumptions of the 

2022 Trustees Report. 

Note: Trust Fund Ratio for a given year is defined as the reserves in the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds at the 

beginning of the year expressed as a percentage of the cost of the program for the year.

Under current law, 80 percent of scheduled benefits are projected to be payable on a timely basis 

in 2035 after depletion of the combined trust fund reserves, with the percentage payable 

declining to 74 percent for 2096. Under the proposal, 91 percent of scheduled benefits are 

projected to be payable on a timely basis in 2059 after depletion of the combined trust fund 

reserves, with the percentage payable declining to 89 percent for 2096. 

Enactment of the six provisions of this proposal would decrease the long-range OASDI actuarial 

deficit from 3.42 percent of taxable payroll under current law to 1.11 percent of payroll under the 

proposal. 

Figure 2 illustrates annual projected levels of cost, expenditures, and non-interest income as a 

percent of the current-law taxable payroll. The projected level of cost reflects the full cost of 

scheduled benefits under both current law and the proposal. After trust fund reserve depletion, 

projected expenditures under current law and under the proposal include only amounts payable 

from projected tax revenues (non-interest income), which are less than projected cost. 

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2022 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Trust Fund Ratio

Figure 1. Current-Law and Proposal OASDI Trust Fund Reserves as Percent of 

Annual Cost: 2022 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Current-Law Trust Fund Ratio

Proposal
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OASDI program annual cost under the proposal is higher than under current law, starting in 

2024. This difference between proposal and current-law cost increases from 0.3 percent of 

current-law payroll for 2024 to 0.6 percent of current-law payroll for 2050 and to 0.9 percent of 

current-law payroll for 2082, and then slightly decreases through 2096. Beginning in 2024, noninterest income under the proposal is projected to be higher than under current law. This 

difference between proposal and current-law income increases from 0.4 percent of current-law 

payroll for 2024 to 3.2 percent of current-law payroll for 2033, and thereafter increases much 

more gradually, reaching 3.3 percent of current-law payroll for 2096. For 2024 and later, the 

proposal improves the annual balance (non-interest income minus program cost). 

It is also useful to consider the projected cost, expenditures, and income for the OASDI program 

expressed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Figure 3 illustrates these levels 

under both current law and the proposal. 

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

2022 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Percent of Current-Law Taxable Payroll

Figure 2. Proposal and Current-Law Cost, Expenditures, and Non-Interest Income 

as Percent of Taxable Payroll: 2022 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Current-Law Cost

Current-Law Non-Interest Income

Current-Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Non-Interest Income

Proposal Expenditures
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Specification for Provisions of the Proposal 

Section 2. Increase the special minimum PIA, beginning for workers who become newly 

eligible for retirement or disability benefits or die after 2023. 

The current-law special minimum benefit has little effect currently, because the level of benefit 

has been indexed from one generation of new beneficiaries to the next by increases in the CPI. 

This provision establishes a new minimum PIA under the OASDI program beginning with newly 

eligible beneficiaries in 2024. 

For workers who become eligible for old-age or disability benefits or die in 2024, the full 

minimum PIA equals the Department of Health and Human Services’ (HHS) annual individual 

poverty level for 2023 divided by 12. For beneficiaries becoming initially eligible after 2024, the 

initial special minimum amount is indexed from the 2024 level by the AWI. The minimum PIA 

is increased by the COLA after the year of initial eligibility.

The percentage of the full minimum PIA that is applicable for a worker under this provision is 

determined by the number of years of work (YOWs) the worker has earned. The number of 

YOWs are determined for a worker as the number of quarters of coverage (excluding quarters 

earned in years selected as YOWs based on child care) divided by 4 (and truncating any fraction) 

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

2022 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Percent of GDP

Figure 3. Proposal and Current-Law Cost, Expenditures, and Non-Interest Income 

as Percent of GDP: 2022 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Current-Law Cost

Current-Law Non-Interest Income

Current-Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Non-Interest Income

Proposal Expenditures
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plus up to five additional YOWs, reflecting years they were caring for a child who was under age 

6 and residing in the worker’s home, throughout the entire year. 

For workers with 30 or more years of work, the minimum PIA is equal to 100 percent of the full 

minimum PIA described above. This percent is reduced by about 3 and 1/3 percentage points for 

each year by which the worker’s total number of YOWs is less than 30 years, with no minimum 

PIA for 10 or fewer years of work. For example, a worker with 28 YOWs would receive a 

minimum benefit based on 93.3 percent of the full minimum PIA, and a worker with 11 YOWs 

would receive a minimum benefit based on 36.7 percent of the full minimum PIA. 

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.09 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2096) by 0.13 percent of payroll. 

Section 3. Provide a uniform PIA increase starting with the 16th calendar year after the year 

of initial eligibility. 

This provision provides for a gradual, uniform increase in PIA for the 16th through 20th calendar 

years after the year of initial eligibility for benefits. The increase would apply for all OASDI 

beneficiaries in 2024 and later. The uniform PIA increase for the 16th calendar year after the year 

of initial eligibility would be 1 percent of the PIA amount for a worker of the same age who had 

earnings equal to the AWI starting at age 20, through the year prior to initial benefit eligibility. 

The PIA will be further increased by an additional 1 percent of the AWI-earner’s PIA in the 17th

through 20th calendar years after the year of initial eligibility. The total 5 percent increase will 

continue to apply in the 21st and later calendar years after the year of initial eligibility.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.27 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2096) by 0.33 percent of payroll. 

Section 4. Extend benefit eligibility for children of retired, disabled, or deceased workers 

until they attain age 26, beginning in 2024. 

Under current law, minor children under the age of 18 and high school students under age 19 are 

entitled to benefits if they are the child of a retired, disabled, or deceased worker. This provision 

extends benefits for children until they attain the age of 26 if they are a child of a retired, 

disabled, or deceased worker, and if the child is a full-time student. 

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.08 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2096) by 0.08 percent of payroll. 

Section 5 and Section 6. Eliminate the taxable maximum, and provide benefit credit for 

additional earnings taxed, fully effective in 2033. 

Under current law, payroll taxes totaling 12.4 percent apply to covered earnings in a year up to 

the contribution and benefit base, or taxable maximum. This taxable maximum is $160,200 for 
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2023 and increases in the future with increases in the AWI. All covered earnings subject to the 

payroll tax are also creditable toward computation of potential benefits as well as attainment of 

insured status. 

Under Section 5 of the proposal, all covered earnings in excess of the current-law taxable 

maximum would be subject to some payroll tax starting in 2024. Covered earnings in excess of 

the current-law maximum would be taxed at a 1.24 percent rate in 2024, at a 2.48 percent rate in 

2025, at a 3.72 percent rate in 2026, ..., and at a 12.4 percent rate in 2033 and later years. 

Therefore, all covered earnings above and below the current-law taxable maximum would be 

taxed at the full 12.4 percent payroll tax rate for 2033 and later.

Based on the changes to payroll taxes included in this section of the proposal, we assume 

employers and employees will redistribute total employee compensation among taxes, wages, 

and other compensation beginning in 2024. This behavioral response is projected to reduce 

somewhat the share of compensation received in wages, and thus payroll tax revenue, the AWI, 

and the scheduled benefits that would accrue in the absence of this behavioral response. 

Under Section 6 of the proposal, the AIME for workers would include any earnings above the 

current-law taxable maximum that are subject to the payroll tax in 2024 and later. 10 percent of 

such earnings over the current-law maximum would be included in 2024, 20 percent would be 

included in 2025, ..., and all earnings over the current-law maximum would be included in the 

computation of the AIME in 2033 and later. In addition, the PIA would be determined with a 

bend point added to the current-law PIA formula. The additional bend point would equal the 

monthly equivalent of the current-law taxable maximum for the second year prior to initial 

eligibility (determined without regard to the changes made in this provision). A PIA factor of 3 

percent would apply to AIME above the new bend point. 

We estimate that enactment of these two provisions alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 2.10 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2096) by 2.23 percent of payroll. 

Section 7. Increase the combined OASDI payroll tax rate to 13.0 percent, fully effective for 

2029 and later. 

Currently, the combined payroll tax rate for OASDI taxable earnings is 12.4 percent (6.2 percent 

each for employees and employers). This provision would increase the combined tax rate by 0.1 

percentage point for each year 2024 through 2029, raising the combined rate to 12.5 percent for 

2024, 12.6 percent for 2025, ..., and 13.0 percent for 2029 and later years.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.56 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2096) by 0.61 percent of payroll. 

Based on the changes to payroll taxes included in this section of the proposal, we assume 

employers and employees will redistribute total employee compensation among taxes, wages, 

and other compensation beginning in 2024. This behavioral response is projected to reduce 
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somewhat the share of compensation received in wages, and thus payroll tax revenue, the AWI,

and the scheduled benefits that would accrue in the absence of this behavioral response. 

Detailed Financial Results for the Provisions of the Proposal 

Summary Results by Provision 

Table A provides estimates of the effects on the OASDI long-range actuarial balance of the 

provisions of the proposal separately and on a combined basis. The table also includes estimates 

of the effect of the provisions on the annual balance (the difference between the income rate and 

the cost rate, expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll) for the 75th projection 

year, 2096. Interaction among individual provisions is reflected only in the total estimates for the 

combined provisions. 

Benefit Illustrations

Tables B1 and B2 provide illustrative examples of the projected change in benefit levels under 

the provisions of the proposal for beneficiaries retiring and starting benefit receipt at age 65 in 

future years at six selected earnings levels, with selected numbers of years of work. The 

“Maximum-AIME Steady Earner” is assumed to have earnings at ages 22 through 64 that equal 

the current-law taxable maximum level (equivalent to $147,000 for 2022) and the “Twice 

Maximum-AIME Steady Earner” is assumed to have earnings at ages 22 through 64 that equal 

twice the current-law taxable maximum level (equivalent to $294,000 for 2022). As a result, the 

provision to tax and credit earnings above the current-law taxable maximum affects only the 

“Twice Maximum-AIME Steady Earner” benefit level. Table B3 provides additional important 

information on characteristics of retired workers represented by these illustrations for the year 

2016. 

The first several columns of Table B1 compare the initial scheduled benefit levels, assuming 

retirement at age 65 under the provisions of the proposal, to scheduled current-law benefit levels. 

Among the examples in the table, the proposed minimum benefit affects only the very-low–

AIME hypothetical worker with 30 years of earnings. The scheduled benefit amounts under the 

proposal shown in the “payroll tax and benefit formula” column are lower than under current law 

by between 0 and 1 percent for workers newly entitled at age 65 in 2040, 2060, and 2090, except 

the twice maximum-current-law-AIME worker, due to the assumed behavioral response to the 

increased payroll tax in 2024 and later. For the twice current-law-AIME worker, these reductions 

in benefit amounts are more than offset by the additional earnings subject to payroll tax above 

the current-law taxable maximum that are credited for benefit purposes. The twice-maximumAIME hypothetical worker has an ultimate 11.8 percent benefit increase from benefit credit at 

age 65 due to earnings taxed over the current-law taxable maximum. The final two columns of 

this table show the level of scheduled benefits under the proposal as a percentage of current-law 

scheduled benefits and the level of payable benefits under the proposal as a percentage of

current-law payable benefits. 

Table B2 provides two comparisons: (1) the percentage change in scheduled benefit levels at 

ages 65, 75, 85, and 95 under the proposal compared to scheduled benefits under current law; 

and (2) the percentage change in payable benefit levels at the same four ages under the proposal 
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compared to payable benefits under current law. Each comparison assumes retirement and start 

of benefit receipt at age 65. Table B2 shows that projected scheduled benefits under the 

provisions of this proposal increase in relation to current-law scheduled benefits between ages 75 

and 85 across all earnings levels due to the increase in benefits for beneficiaries in the 16th or 

later calendar year after the year of initial eligibility. This provision increases benefits for retirees 

starting at the calendar year of age 78 attainment, with the full increase starting at the calendar 

year of age 82 attainment. 

The hypothetical workers represented in these tables reflect average career-earnings patterns of 

workers who started receiving retirement benefits under the Social Security program in recent 

years. The tables subdivide workers with very-low, low, and medium career-average earnings 

levels by their numbers of years of non-zero earnings. 

Table B3 provides information helpful in interpreting the benefit illustrations in Tables B1 and 

B2. Percentages in Table B3 are based on tabulations from a 10-percent sample of newly-entitled 

retired workers in 2016. Table B3 displays the percentages of these newly-entitled retired

workers in 2016 that are closest to each of the illustrative examples and are:

1) “Dually Entitled”, meaning they received a higher spouse or widow(er) benefit based on 

the career earnings of their husband or wife, 

2) “WEP” (Windfall Elimination Provision), meaning that they received a reduced benefit 

due to having a pension based on earnings that were not covered under the OASDI 

program (primarily certain government workers), and they had less than 30 years of 

substantial earnings that were taxable under the OASDI program, 

3) “Foreign Born”, meaning that they entered the Social Security coverage area after birth 

(and generally after entering working ages), and 

4) “All Others”, meaning they had none of the three characteristics listed above. 

The extent to which retired-worker beneficiaries represented by each of the illustrative examples 

have any of the characteristics listed above (dually entitled, WEP, foreign born) is important 

because such individuals are less dependent on the OASDI benefit that relates to their own 

career-average earnings level. It should be noted that the distributions shown in Table B3 for 

retirees in 2016 will be changing somewhat for beneficiaries becoming entitled as retired-worker 

beneficiaries in the future. 

Payroll Tax Effects 

Table T compares the scheduled payroll tax levels under the provisions of the proposal to 

scheduled current-law payroll tax levels. Under the proposal, the currently scheduled payroll tax 

rate of 12.4 percent would be gradually increased starting in 2024, reaching 13.0 percent for 

2029 and later. Taken alone, this provision would increase the amount of payroll tax paid by all 

example workers in the table by 4.8 percent in 2040, 2060, and 2090. Taken alone, the 

application of the current-law 12.4 percent payroll tax on all earnings in 2033 and later would 

increase the payroll tax liability of the twice-maximum earner by 100 percent for 2040, 2060, 

and 2090. For the combined effect of these two provisions, shown in the “Total” column in the 

table, all earnings would, by 2033, be subject to the 13.0 percent payroll tax rate, including any 

earnings above the current-law taxable maximum. As a result, the example worker with earnings 
Page 10 – The Honorable Gwen Moore 

at twice the current-law taxable maximum would have total payroll tax liability increased by 

109.7 percent for 2040, 2060, and 2090. In addition, there would be effects on earnings (and 

therefore payroll taxes paid) due to the assumed behavioral response by employees and 

employers; these effects are not included in this table. 

Detailed Tables Containing Annual and Summary Projections 

Enclosed with this letter are tables 1, 1a, 1b, 1b.n, 1c, 1d, and 1d.n, which provide annual and 

summary projections for the proposal.

Trust Fund Operations 

Table 1 provides projections of the financial operations of the OASDI program under the 

proposal and shows that the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds would be able to pay scheduled 

benefits in full and on time for an additional 24 years assuming enactment of the six provisions. 

The year in which the combined reserves of the OASI and DI Trust Funds are projected to 

become depleted would change from 2035 under current law to 2059 under the proposal. Even 

after depletion of the trust fund reserves, however, the actuarial status of the program would be 

improved as continuing income would be sufficient to pay a higher percentage of scheduled 

benefits than under current law. Under current law, 80 percent of scheduled benefits are 

projected to be payable at trust fund reserve depletion in 2035, declining to 74 percent payable 

by 2096. Under this proposal, 100 percent of the proposed (higher) scheduled benefits would be 

fully payable through 2058, and 91 percent would be payable at trust fund reserve depletion in 

2059, declining to 89 percent payable by 2096. 

The table shows the annual cost and income rates, annual balances, and trust fund ratios 

(reserves as a percentage of annual program cost) for OASDI, as well as the change from current 

law in these cost rates, income rates, and annual balances. Included at the bottom of this table are 

summarized rates for the 75-year (long-range) period.

For 2024 and later, the proposal improves the annual balance (non-interest income minus 

program cost). The improvement in the annual balance increases from 0.1 percent of current-law 

payroll for 2024 to 2.8 percent of payroll for 2033, and thereafter generally decreases to 2.4 

percent of payroll for 2096. Under the proposal, the annual deficit generally declines from 1.4 

percent of current-law payroll for 2024 to 0.1 percent of current-law payroll for 2033. The 

annual deficit increases to 2.5 percent of current-law payroll for 2078, and then decreases 

throughout the rest of the long-range period, ultimately reaching 1.9 percent of current-law 

payroll for 2096. Under current law, the projected annual deficit for 2096 is 4.3 percent of 

payroll. 

The actuarial deficit for the OASDI program over the 75-year projection period is reduced by 

2.31 percent of taxable payroll, from an actuarial deficit of 3.42 percent of payroll under current 

law to an actuarial deficit of 1.11 percent of taxable payroll under the proposal. 
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Program Transfers and Trust Fund Reserves 

Column 4 of Table 1a provides a projection of the level of reserves for the combined OASI and 

DI Trust Funds, assuming enactment of the six Social Security provisions of the proposal. These 

trust fund reserve amounts are expressed in present value dollars discounted to January 1, 2022. 

The table indicates that the provisions include no new specified transfers of general revenue to 

the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds. For purpose of comparison, the OASDI Trust Fund 

reserves, expressed in present value dollars, are also shown for the current-law Social Security 

program both without and with the added proposal general fund transfers (zero in this case) in 

columns 6 and 7. 

Note that negative values in columns 6 and 7 represent the “unfunded obligation” for the 

program through the year. The unfunded obligation is the present value of the shortfall of 

revenue needed to pay full scheduled benefits on a timely basis from the date of trust fund 

reserve depletion through the end of the indicated year. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 

expressed in present value dollars, is shown in column 5 for comparison with other values in the 

table.

Effect of the Social Security Provisions on the Federal Budget 

Table 1b shows the projected effect, in present value discounted dollars, on the federal budget 

(unified-budget and on-budget) annual cash flows and balances, assuming enactment of the six 

Social Security provisions of the proposal. Our analysis provided in these tables reflects only the 

direct effects of these provisions on the OASI and DI Trust Funds and does not reflect the effects 

of these provisions on the General Fund of the Treasury under the on-budget operations of the 

federal government. Table 1b.n provides the estimated nominal dollar effect of enactment of the 

proposal on annual budget balances for years 2022 through 2032. All values in these tables 

represent the amount of change from the level projected under current law. In addition, changes 

reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits, not payable under the law after 

depletion of trust fund reserves, would still be paid using revenue provided from the General 

Fund of the Treasury. The reader should be cautioned that this presumption of payment of 

benefits beyond the resources of the trust funds is prohibited under current law and is also 

inconsistent with all past experience under the Social Security program. 

Column 1 of Table 1b shows the added proposal general fund transfers (zero for this proposal). 

Column 2 shows the net changes in OASDI cash flow from all provisions of the proposal. 

We project the net effect of the proposal on unified budget cash flow (column 3) to be positive in 

years 2024 and later, primarily due to the payroll tax rate increase in Section 7 and the payroll 

tax newly applied to earnings above the current-law taxable maximum in Section 5. 

Column 4 of Table 1b indicates that the effect of implementing the proposal would be a 

reduction of the theoretical federal debt held by the public, reaching about $14.6 trillion in 

present value at the end of the 75-year projection period. Column 5 provides the projected effect 

of the proposal on the annual unified budget balances, including both the cash flow effect in 

column 3 and the additional interest on the accumulated debt in column 4. Columns 6 and 7 
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indicate that the provisions of this proposal would have no expected direct effects on the onbudget cash flow, or on the total federal debt, in the future.

It is important to note that we base these estimates on the intermediate assumptions of the 2022

Trustees Report, so these estimates are not consistent with estimates made by the Office of 

Management and Budget or the Congressional Budget Office based on their assumptions. In 

particular, all present values are discounted using trust fund yield assumptions under the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2022 Trustees Report.

Annual Trust Fund Operations as a Percent of GDP

Table 1c provides annual cost, annual expenditures (amount that would be payable), and annual 

tax income for the OASDI program expressed as a percentage of GDP for both current law and 

assuming enactment of the six Social Security provisions of the proposal. Showing the annual 

trust fund cash flows as a percentage of GDP provides an additional perspective on these trust 

fund operations in relation to the total value of goods and services produced in the United States. 

The relationship between income and cost is similar when expressed as a percentage of GDP to 

that when expressed as a percent of taxable payroll (Table 1).

Effects on Trust Fund Reserves and Unfunded Obligations

Table 1d provides estimates of the changes in trust fund reserves and unfunded obligations on an 

annual basis, expressed in present value dollars discounted to January 1, 2022. Table 1d.n

provides the same estimates, expressed in nominal dollars, for years 2022 through 2032.

For the 75-year (long-range) period as a whole, the current-law unfunded obligation of $20.4

trillion would be reduced to $5.8 trillion in present value at the end of 2096, assuming enactment 

of the proposal. This change of $14.6 trillion results from: 

• A $18.8 trillion net increase in revenue (column 2), primarily from additional payroll 

tax revenue due to eliminating the taxable maximum and increasing payroll tax rates, 

minus

• A $4.1 trillion net increase in cost (column 3), primarily from the special minimum 

PIA provision, the uniform PIA increase for those in the 16th or later calendar year 

after the year of initial eligibility, expanding student benefits, and additional benefits 

from earnings taxed above the current-law taxable maximum.

We hope these estimates are helpful. Please let me know if we may provide further assistance.

Sincerely, 

Stephen C. Goss, ASA, MAAA

Chief Actuary

Enclosures
Table A—Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of the

“Social Security Enhancement and Protection Act of 2023” (118th Congress), 

Introduced by Representative Moore

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

for 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

Section 2) For beneficiaries becoming newly eligible in 2024, 

increase the special minimum primary insurance amount (PIA) to as 

much as 100 percent of the 2023 Department of Health and Human 

Services’ (HHS) monthly poverty level by making the following 

changes: (a) Years of work (YOWs) are defined as total QCs/4, 

ignoring any fraction (excluding quarters earned in years selected as 

YOWs based on child care), plus up to 5 years in which the worker 

cared for a child who was under age 6 and resided in the worker’s 

home, throughout the year. (b) For those becoming newly eligible or 

dying in 2024 with 30 or more YOWs, set the minimum PIA equal 

to 100 percent of the HHS monthly poverty level. For workers 

between 11 and 29 YOWs, reduce the special minimum by about 3 

1/3 percentage points per total YOWs under 30 so that at 29 YOWs 

the minimum would be 96.7 percent of the monthly poverty level,..., 

down to 11 YOWs at 36.7 percent of poverty. No minimum for 10 

or fewer YOWs. (c) For workers becoming newly eligible or dying 

after 2024, index the HHS monthly poverty level used for their 

initial year of eligibility from the 2024 level by growth in the 

national average wage index (AWI). (d) The numbers of YOW (30 

down to 11) to determine specific percentages of the minimum PIA

apply for all workers, including those who die or become disabled 

under age 62. (e) The minimum is increased by the COLA in all 

years after initial benefit eligibility...................................................... -0.09 -0.13

Section 3) Effective in 2024, provide a uniform PIA increase starting 

for the 16th calendar year after the year of initial benefit eligibility. 

The benefit increase is phased in at 1 percent per year from the 16th

through 20th calendar years after the year of initial of eligibility. The 

uniform PIA increase is the specified percent of the PIA of a worker 

of the same age assumed to have career-average earnings equal to 

the AWI ............................................................................................... -0.27 -0.33

Section 4) Beginning in 2024, extend eligibility for benefits for 

children of disabled, retired, or deceased workers until they attain 

age 26 if the child is a full-time student............................................... -0.08 -0.08

Sections 5 and 6) Eliminate the contribution and benefit base in 

2024, raising the payroll tax for earnings over the current-law 

taxable maximum by 1.24 percent each year from 2024-2033. 

Additional earnings taxed are creditable for benefits in proportion to 

the level of the full payroll tax paid. Add a new bend point at the 

current-law taxable maximum, with a 3-percent PIA factor on 

average indexed monthly earnings (AIME) above the new bend point 2.10 2.23

Section 7) Beginning in 2024, increase the combined OASDI payroll 

tax rate by 0.1 percentage point per year until it reaches 13.0 percent 

for 2029 and later................................................................................. 0.56 0.61

Total for all provisions, including interaction ............................. 2.31 2.40
Table A—Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of the

“Social Security Enhancement and Protection Act of 2023” (118th Congress), 

Introduced by Representative Moore

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

for 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

1

Under current law, the estimated long-range OASDI actuarial balance is -3.42 percent of taxable payroll. 2

Under current law, the estimated 75th year annual balance is -4.25 percent of taxable payroll. 

Notes: All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2022 OASDI Trustees Report. 

 Estimates of individual provisions appear on a stand-alone basis relative to current law, unless otherwise stated.

Social Security Administration

Office of the Chief Actuary

January 31, 2023
Proposal Proposal

Year Scheduled to Payable to

Attain Payroll Tax and Minimum Current Law Current Law

Age 65 (Wage-Indexed (CPI-Indexed Benefit Formula5 Benefit6 Total Scheduled Payable

2022 Dollars) 2022 Dollars)

 

2026 805 866 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 848 1,083 -1.0 8.7 7.7 108 137

2060 850 1,352 -0.8 8.4 7.6 108 130

2090 851 1,890 -0.7 8.3 7.5 108 129

 

2026 805 866 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 848 1,083 -1.0 0.0 -1.0 99 126

2060 850 1,352 -0.8 0.0 -0.8 99 120

2090 851 1,890 -0.7 0.0 -0.7 99 119

 

2026 805 866 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 848 1,083 -1.0 0.0 -1.0 99 126

2060 850 1,352 -0.8 0.0 -0.8 99 120

2090 851 1,890 -0.7 0.0 -0.7 99 119

2026 1,055 1,135 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 1,110 1,418 -0.9 0.0 -0.9 99 126

2060 1,113 1,770 -0.6 0.0 -0.6 99 120

2090 1,114 2,474 -0.6 0.0 -0.6 99 119

2026 1,055 1,135 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 1,110 1,418 -0.9 0.0 -0.9 99 126

2060 1,113 1,770 -0.6 0.0 -0.6 99 120

2090 1,114 2,474 -0.6 0.0 -0.6 99 119

2026 1,055 1,135 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 1,110 1,418 -0.9 0.0 -0.9 99 126

2060 1,113 1,770 -0.6 0.0 -0.6 99 120

2090 1,114 2,474 -0.6 0.0 -0.6 99 119

2026 1,742 1,874 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 1,831 2,339 -0.9 0.0 -0.9 99 127

2060 1,835 2,918 -0.5 0.0 -0.5 100 120

2090 1,837 4,080 -0.4 0.0 -0.4 100 120

2026 1,742 1,874 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 1,831 2,339 -0.9 0.0 -0.9 99 127

2060 1,835 2,918 -0.5 0.0 -0.5 100 120

2090 1,837 4,080 -0.4 0.0 -0.4 100 120

2026 2,303 2,478 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 2,423 3,095 -0.9 0.0 -0.9 99 126

2060 2,429 3,863 -0.7 0.0 -0.7 99 120

2090 2,431 5,400 -0.7 0.0 -0.7 99 119

2026 2,814 3,028 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100

2040 2,965 3,788 -0.9 0.0 -0.9 99 126

2060 2,967 4,717 -0.7 0.0 -0.7 99 120

2090 2,969 6,593 -0.6 0.0 -0.6 99 119

2026 2,814 3,028 0.5 0.0 0.5 101 101

2040 2,965 3,788 5.0 0.0 5.0 105 134

2060 2,967 4,717 10.8 0.0 10.8 111 134

2090 2,969 6,593 11.8 0.0 11.8 112 134

1

2

3

4

5

6

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2022 Trustees Report.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration January 31, 2023

After the trust fund reserves deplete under current law continuing taxes are expected to be enough to pay about three fourths of scheduled benefits.

Eliminate the taxable maximum, phasing in from 2024-2033. For beneficiaries newly eligible in 2024 and later, add a new bend point at the current law tax max for the second year prior to initial eligibility with a 3% 

PIA factor on earnings above the new bend point. The assumed behavioral response to increased payroll tax lowers reported wages, and thus the level of the AWI starting in 2024.

For beneficiaries newly eligible in 2024, establish a minimum PIA level such that a worker with 30/11 years of coverage would receive a minimum PIA for 2024 of at least 100%/36.67% of the monthly poverty level for 

2023. For beneficiaries newly eligible after 2024, the minimum PIA level for their initial year of eligibility would be adjusted for average wage growth. The minimum PIA is increased after the year of initial eligibility 

by the COLA. The minimum benefit percent change is calculated after all other provisions, so that the proposal benefit amount is at least the minimum benefit, where applicable.

This analysis reflects only the provisions of the proposal identified in this table and described in the footnotes above.

Of the 7.2 percent of retirees with current-law AIME closest to the Maximum-Current-Law level, about 33 percent (or 2.4 percent of all retirees) would have an AIME closer to the Twice Maximum-Current-Law level if 

their earnings were not limited by annual taxable maximums.

 Very-Low-AIME ($15,646 for 20221) 14-Year Scaled Earner (3.5% of Retirees2

)

 Low-AIME ($28,162 for 20221) 44-Year Scaled Earner (19.0% of Retirees2

)

 Low-AIME ($28,162 for 20221

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (3.8% of Retirees2

)

 Low-AIME ($28,162 for 20221

) 20-Year Scaled Earner (1.4% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($62,583 for 20221) 44-Year Scaled Earner (27.5% of Retirees2

)

 Medium-AIME ($62,583 for 20221

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (1.8% of Retirees2

)

 High-AIME ($100,133 for 20221) 44-Year Scaled Earner (19.4% of Retirees2

)

 Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($147,000 for 20221) 43-Year Steady Earner (7.2% of Retirees2

)

 Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($294,000 for 20221

) 43-Year Steady Earner3

Average of highest 35 years of taxable earnings wage indexed to 2022. For the Maximum and Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME workers, we show one times and two times the 2022 taxable maximum, respectively.

Projected percent of newly entitled retired worker beneficiaries in 2050 with current-law AIME levels and years of covered earnings closest to AIME levels and close to years of covered earnings shown. See details in 

Note 1 on table B3.

Monthly Benefits4

(Percent change) (Percents)

 Very-Low-AIME ($15,646 for 20221

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (11.1% of Retirees2

)

 Very-Low-AIME ($15,646 for 20221

) 20-Year Scaled Earner (5.1% of Retirees2

)

Table B1. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Becoming Newly Entitled at age 65 

"Social Security Enhancement and Protection Act of 2023," Introduced by Representative Moore

Benefit Ratios

Scheduled Benefit Level Percent Change at age 65

Current Law Scheduled
Year 

Attain

Age 65 Age 65 Age 75 Age 855 Age 955 Age 65 Age 75 Age 855 Age 955

2026 100.0 100.0 110.8 110.8 100.0 126.0 142.4 145.4

2040 107.7 107.7 118.4 118.4 137.4 139.2 142.9 142.3

2060 107.6 107.6 118.4 118.4 129.9 129.4 142.1 142.1

2090 107.5 107.5 118.3 118.3 129.1 129.2 4 4

2026 100.0 100.0 110.8 110.8 100.0 126.0 142.4 145.4

2040 99.0 99.0 109.7 109.7 126.4 128.1 132.5 132.0

2060 99.2 99.2 110.0 110.0 119.9 119.3 132.1 132.0

2090 99.3 99.3 110.1 110.1 119.2 119.4 4 4

2026 100.0 100.0 110.8 110.8 100.0 126.0 142.4 145.4

2040 99.0 99.0 109.7 109.7 126.4 128.1 132.5 132.0

2060 99.2 99.2 110.0 110.0 119.9 119.3 132.1 132.0

2090 99.3 99.3 110.1 110.1 119.2 119.4 4 4

2026 100.0 100.0 108.3 108.3 100.0 126.0 139.1 142.0

2040 99.1 99.1 107.3 107.3 126.5 128.1 129.5 129.0

2060 99.4 99.4 107.6 107.6 120.0 119.5 129.2 129.1

2090 99.4 99.4 107.6 107.6 119.4 119.5 4 4

2026 100.0 100.0 108.3 108.3 100.0 126.0 139.1 142.0

2040 99.1 99.1 107.3 107.3 126.5 128.1 129.5 129.0

2060 99.4 99.4 107.6 107.6 120.0 119.5 129.2 129.1

2090 99.4 99.4 107.6 107.6 119.4 119.5 4 4

2026 100.0 100.0 108.3 108.3 100.0 126.0 139.1 142.0

2040 99.1 99.1 107.3 107.3 126.5 128.1 129.5 129.0

2060 99.4 99.4 107.6 107.6 120.0 119.5 129.2 129.1

2090 99.4 99.4 107.6 107.6 119.4 119.5 4 4

2026 100.0 100.0 105.0 105.0 100.0 126.0 134.9 137.8

2040 99.1 99.1 104.1 104.1 126.5 128.2 125.7 125.2

2060 99.5 99.5 104.5 104.5 120.2 119.7 125.5 125.4

2090 99.6 99.6 104.6 104.6 119.5 119.7 4 4

2026 100.0 100.0 105.0 105.0 100.0 126.0 134.9 137.8

2040 99.1 99.1 104.1 104.1 126.5 128.2 125.7 125.2

2060 99.5 99.5 104.5 104.5 120.2 119.7 125.5 125.4

2090 99.6 99.6 104.6 104.6 119.5 119.7 4 4

2026 100.0 100.0 103.8 103.8 100.0 126.0 133.4 136.2

2040 99.1 99.1 102.8 102.8 126.4 128.1 124.2 123.6

2060 99.3 99.3 103.0 103.0 119.9 119.4 123.8 123.7

2090 99.3 99.3 103.1 103.1 119.2 119.4 4 4

2026 100.0 100.0 103.1 103.1 100.0 126.0 132.5 135.3

2040 99.1 99.1 102.2 102.2 126.5 128.2 123.4 122.8

2060 99.3 99.3 102.4 102.4 120.0 119.5 123.0 122.9

2090 99.4 99.4 102.5 102.5 119.3 119.5 4 4

2026 100.5 100.5 103.6 103.6 100.5 126.6 133.1 135.9

2040 105.0 105.0 108.1 108.1 134.0 135.8 130.5 130.0

2060 110.8 110.8 113.8 113.8 133.7 133.2 136.7 136.6

2090 111.8 111.8 114.9 114.9 134.2 134.3 4 4

1

2

3

4

5

Note:

-

-

- This analysis reflects only the provisions of the proposal identified in Table B1 and described in the notes above.

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2022 Trustees Report.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration January 31, 2023

 Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($294,000 for 20221

) 43-Year Steady Earner3

Average of highest 35 years of taxable earnings wage indexed to 2022. For the Maximum and Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME workers, we show one times 

and two times the 2022 taxable maximum, respectively.

Projected percent of newly entitled retired worker beneficiaries in 2050 with current-law AIME levels and years of covered earnings closest to AIME levels and 

close to years of covered earnings shown. See details in Note 1 on table B3.

Of the 7.2 percent of retirees with current-law AIME closest to the Maximum-Current-Law level, about 33 percent (or 2.4 percent of all retirees) would have an 

AIME closer to the Twice Maximum-Current-Law level if their earnings were not limited by annual taxable maximums.

The proposal payable benefit as percent of current law payable benefit is not presented for years of payment beyond the 75-year projection period.

Increase the benefit by 5% of an AWI worker's PIA beginning 16 years after initial eligibility and phased in over five years starting in 2024.

Eliminate the taxable maximum, phasing in from 2024-2033. For beneficiaries newly eligible in 2024 and later, add a new bend point at the current law tax max 

for the second year prior to initial eligibility with a 3% PIA factor on earnings above the new bend point. The assumed behavioral response to increased payroll tax 

lowers reported wages, and thus the level of the AWI starting in 2024.

For beneficiaries newly eligible in 2024, establish a minimum PIA level such that a worker with 30/11 years of coverage would receive a minimum PIA for 2024 of 

at least 100%/36.67% of the monthly poverty level for 2023. For beneficiaries newly eligible after 2024, the minimum PIA level for their initial year of eligibility 

would be adjusted for average wage growth. The minimum PIA is increased after the year of initial eligibility by the COLA.

 Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($147,000 for 20221

) 43-Year Steady Earner (7.2% of Retirees2)

(Percent)

 Very-Low-AIME ($15,646 for 20221

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (11.1% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($15,646 for 20221

) 20-Year Scaled Earner (5.1% of Retirees2

)

 Very-Low-AIME ($15,646 for 20221

) 14-Year Scaled Earner (3.5% of Retirees2

)

 Low-AIME ($28,162 for 20221

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (19.0% of Retirees2

)

 Low-AIME ($28,162 for 20221

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (3.8% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($28,162 for 20221

) 20-Year Scaled Earner (1.4% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($62,583 for 20221

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (27.5% of Retirees2

)

 Medium-AIME ($62,583 for 20221) 30-Year Scaled Earner (1.8% of Retirees2

)

 High-AIME ($100,133 for 20221

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (19.4% of Retirees2

)

Table B2. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Becoming Newly Entitled age 65 

"Social Security Enhancement and Protection Act of 2023," Introduced by Representative Moore

Proposal Scheduled Benefit as Percent of Proposal Payable Benefit as Percent of 

Current Law Scheduled Benefit Current Law Payable Benefit
Category 

(AIME and Years of Covered Earnings Close to) Dually Entitled2 WEP3 Foreign Born All Others4

Very-Low-AIME ($11,592 for 20161):

30-Year Scaled Earner (7.9% of Retirees) 27 8 14 53

20-Year Scaled Earner (6.0% of Retirees) 27 16 27 35

14-Year Scaled Earner (5.2% of Retirees) 21 20 52 19

Low-AIME ($20,856 for 20161):

44-Year Scaled Earner (13.0% of Retirees) 8 2 7 83

30-Year Scaled Earner (6.8% of Retirees) 13 8 25 56

20-Year Scaled Earner (2.4% of Retirees) 9 21 47 29

Medium-AIME ($46,368 for 20161):

44-Year Scaled Earner (25.8% of Retirees) 1 1 6 92

30-Year Scaled Earner (3.3% of Retirees) 1 12 37 53

High-AIME ($74,184 for 20161

):

44-Year Scaled Earner (20.3% of Retirees) 0 1 8 91

Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($118,500 for 20161):

Steady Earner (9.3% of Retirees) 0 0 9 91

1

2

3

4 Not foreign born, not dually entitled by the end of 2018, and not reduced by WEP by the end of 2018.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration June 18, 2020

Table B3. Characteristics of Retired Worker Beneficiaries Becoming Newly Entitled in 2016

Percent of Beneficiaries Within Each Category That Are:

Note 1: Table B3 displays certain characteristics of newly-entitled retired worker beneficiaries in 2016 who are similar to the illustrative hypothetical workers shown in tables 

B1 and B2. The categories shown here include those workers with AIME closest to the earnings level shown, and with years of covered earnings close to the number shown. In 

particular: 

- For the Very-Low-AIME category, 

 - workers included in the "30-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 25+ years of covered earnings; 

 - workers included in the "20-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 18-24 years of covered earnings; 

 - workers included in the "14-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have less than 18 years of covered earnings.

- For the Low-AIME category, 

 - workers included in the "44-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 35+ years of covered earnings; 

 - workers included in the "30-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 25-34 years of covered earnings; 

 - workers included in the "20-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have less than 25 years of covered earnings.

- For the Medium-AIME category, 

 - workers included in the "44-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have 35+ years of covered earnings; 

 - workers included in the "30-Year Scaled Earner" subcategory have less than 35 years of covered earnings.

- Workers included in the High-AIME "44-Year Scaled Earner" category have all numbers of years of covered earnings.

- Workers included in the Maximum-Current-Law-AIME "Steady Earner" category have all numbers of years of covered earnings.

Note 2: The percentages in each category are based on tabulations of a 10-percent sample of newly entitled retired-worker beneficiaries in 2016 (288,627 records). We can be 95 

percent confident that each of the values shown above is within 1.4 percentage points of the value we would find using 100 percent of the retirees in 2016.

Note 3: The sum of the percentages for each category (sum across rows) could be greater than 100 percent because some beneficiaries can be classified in more than one of the 

following groups: dually entitled, WEP, and foreign born. 

Average of highest 35 years of taxable earnings wage indexed to 2016.

Values in this column are percentages of retired workers newly entitled in 2016 who were also entitled to a higher benefit based on someone else’s account by the end of 

2018. The percentage that will ever become dually entitled is higher for most categories, because some retired workers newly entitled in 2016 will first become dually entitled 

after 2018.

Values in this column are percentages of retired workers newly entitled in 2016 who had their benefit reduced based on receipt of a pension from government employment 

under the windfall elimination provision (WEP) by the end of 2018. The percentage that will ever be reduced by WEP is higher for each category, because some retired 

workers newly entitled in 2016 will first receive a government pension after 2018.
Proposal Scheduled Payroll Taxes

Earnings Payroll Taxable Percent of Current Law

in Year (Wage-Indexed (CPI-Indexed Tax Rate2 Maximum3 Total

2022 Dollars) 2022 Dollars) (Percents)

2026 162 174 2.4 0.0 2.4 102

2040 162 206 4.8 0.0 4.8 105

2060 162 257 4.8 0.0 4.8 105

2090 162 359 4.8 0.0 4.8 105

2026 291 313 2.4 0.0 2.4 102

2040 291 372 4.8 0.0 4.8 105

2060 291 463 4.8 0.0 4.8 105

2090 291 646 4.8 0.0 4.8 105

2026 647 696 2.4 0.0 2.4 102

2040 647 826 4.8 0.0 4.8 105

2060 647 1,029 4.8 0.0 4.8 105

2090 647 1,436 4.8 0.0 4.8 105

2026 1,035 1,113 2.4 0.0 2.4 102

2040 1,035 1,321 4.8 0.0 4.8 105

2060 1,035 1,646 4.8 0.0 4.8 105

2090 1,035 2,298 4.8 0.0 4.8 105

2026 1,519 1,634 2.4 0.0 2.4 102

2040 1,519 1,940 4.8 0.0 4.8 105

2060 1,519 2,416 4.8 0.0 4.8 105

2090 1,519 3,374 4.8 0.0 4.8 105

2026 1,519 1,634 2.4 30.0 33.1 133

2040 1,519 1,940 4.8 100.0 109.7 210

2060 1,519 2,416 4.8 100.0 109.7 210

2090 1,519 3,374 4.8 100.0 109.7 210

1

2

3

This analysis reflects only the provisions of the proposal identified in this table and described in the footnotes above.

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2022 Trustees Report.

Percentile among all workers with any covered earnings in 2022 (including earnings both above and below the current-law taxable maximum earnings level). We include those who will die or become 

disabled before reaching retirement age, and those who will not earn enough in their career to become fully insured for retired worker benefits. Thus, these percentiles are not directly comparable to the 

percentages in the B tables, which are based on lifetime earnings, and include only those who survive and become eligible for retirement benefits.

Increase the payroll tax rate by 0.1% each year from 2024 until it reaches 13.0% in 2029.

Eliminate the taxable maximum, phasing in from 2024-2033. In addition, there would be effects on earnings (and therefore payroll taxes paid) due to the assumed behavioral response.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration January 31, 2023

98th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($294,000 in 2022) Twice Current-Law Maximum Earnings Level

Table T. Changes in Payroll Tax Contributions (Employee + Employer) for Workers with OASDI Covered Earnings in the Year

"Social Security Enhancement and Protection Act of 2023," Introduced by Representative Moore

Scheduled Payroll Taxes Percent Change 

Current Law Scheduled

Monthly Total Payroll Taxes

(Percent change) 

26th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($15,646 in 2022)

40th Percentile Earner1

 in Year ($28,162 in 2022)

70th Percentile Earner1

 in Year ($62,583 in 2022)

86th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($100,133 in 2022)

93rd Percentile Earner1 in Year ($147,000 in 2022) Current-Law Maximum Earnings Level
Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

"Social Security Enhancement and Protection Act of 2023", Introduced by Representative Moore

Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2022 14.05 12.79 -1.26 230 0.00 0.00 0.00

2023 14.31 13.04 -1.27 211 0.00 0.00 0.00

2024 14.72 13.33 -1.39 191 0.27 0.38 0.10

2025 14.94 13.72 -1.22 174 0.28 0.75 0.47

2026 15.17 14.20 -0.97 160 0.29 1.12 0.83

2027 15.40 14.59 -0.81 149 0.30 1.49 1.19

2028 15.64 14.99 -0.65 139 0.31 1.85 1.54

2029 15.85 15.38 -0.47 131 0.32 2.21 1.88

2030 16.06 15.65 -0.40 125 0.34 2.45 2.12

2031 16.25 15.92 -0.33 120 0.35 2.69 2.34

2032 16.43 16.19 -0.24 117 0.36 2.94 2.58

2033 16.58 16.45 -0.12 114 0.37 3.20 2.82

2034 16.71 16.48 -0.23 112 0.39 3.21 2.83

2035 16.82 16.49 -0.33 111 0.40 3.21 2.81

2036 16.91 16.50 -0.42 110 0.42 3.22 2.80

2037 17.01 16.51 -0.50 108 0.43 3.22 2.79

2038 17.08 16.51 -0.57 105 0.44 3.22 2.78

2039 17.15 16.52 -0.63 103 0.46 3.22 2.77

2040 17.19 16.53 -0.67 100 0.47 3.23 2.75

2041 17.23 16.53 -0.70 97 0.49 3.23 2.74

2042 17.27 16.54 -0.73 94 0.50 3.23 2.73

2043 17.30 16.54 -0.76 90 0.52 3.24 2.71

2044 17.34 16.54 -0.80 87 0.54 3.24 2.70

2045 17.38 16.55 -0.83 83 0.55 3.24 2.69

2046 17.41 16.55 -0.86 79 0.57 3.24 2.67

2047 17.45 16.56 -0.89 75 0.59 3.25 2.66

2048 17.49 16.56 -0.93 70 0.60 3.25 2.65

2049 17.53 16.57 -0.97 66 0.62 3.25 2.63

2050 17.58 16.57 -1.01 61 0.63 3.25 2.62

2051 17.63 16.58 -1.05 55 0.65 3.26 2.61

2052 17.68 16.58 -1.09 50 0.66 3.26 2.59

2053 17.73 16.59 -1.14 44 0.68 3.26 2.58

2054 17.79 16.59 -1.19 38 0.69 3.26 2.57

2055 17.85 16.60 -1.25 32 0.70 3.26 2.56

2056 17.92 16.61 -1.31 25 0.72 3.27 2.55

2057 17.99 16.61 -1.38 18 0.73 3.27 2.54

2058 18.07 16.62 -1.45 11 0.74 3.27 2.53

2059 18.15 16.63 -1.52 3 0.76 3.27 2.52

2060 18.22 16.64 -1.59 ---- 0.77 3.28 2.50

2061 18.30 16.64 -1.65 ---- 0.79 3.28 2.49

2062 18.37 16.65 -1.72 ---- 0.80 3.28 2.48

2063 18.44 16.66 -1.78 ---- 0.81 3.28 2.47

2064 18.50 16.66 -1.84 ---- 0.82 3.28 2.46

2065 18.57 16.67 -1.90 ---- 0.84 3.29 2.45

2066 18.63 16.67 -1.96 ---- 0.85 3.29 2.44

2067 18.69 16.68 -2.01 ---- 0.86 3.29 2.43

2068 18.76 16.69 -2.07 ---- 0.87 3.29 2.42

2069 18.82 16.69 -2.13 ---- 0.88 3.29 2.41

2070 18.89 16.70 -2.19 ---- 0.89 3.29 2.41

2071 18.95 16.70 -2.25 ---- 0.90 3.30 2.40

2072 19.01 16.71 -2.31 ---- 0.90 3.30 2.39

2073 19.07 16.71 -2.36 ---- 0.91 3.30 2.39

2074 19.13 16.72 -2.41 ---- 0.92 3.30 2.38

2075 19.17 16.72 -2.45 ---- 0.92 3.30 2.38

2076 19.21 16.73 -2.49 ---- 0.93 3.30 2.38

2077 19.24 16.73 -2.51 ---- 0.93 3.30 2.37

2078 19.25 16.73 -2.52 ---- 0.93 3.30 2.37

2079 19.25 16.73 -2.52 ---- 0.93 3.30 2.37

2080 19.24 16.73 -2.50 ---- 0.94 3.30 2.37

2081 19.21 16.73 -2.48 ---- 0.94 3.31 2.37

2082 19.18 16.73 -2.45 ---- 0.94 3.31 2.37

2083 19.14 16.73 -2.41 ---- 0.94 3.31 2.37

2084 19.10 16.73 -2.37 ---- 0.94 3.31 2.37

2085 19.04 16.73 -2.32 ---- 0.94 3.31 2.37

2086 18.98 16.72 -2.26 ---- 0.93 3.31 2.37

2087 18.91 16.72 -2.20 ---- 0.93 3.31 2.38

2088 18.85 16.71 -2.13 ---- 0.93 3.31 2.38

2089 18.78 16.71 -2.07 ---- 0.93 3.31 2.38

2090 18.72 16.71 -2.01 ---- 0.93 3.31 2.38

2091 18.67 16.70 -1.96 ---- 0.92 3.31 2.39

2092 18.62 16.70 -1.92 ---- 0.92 3.31 2.39

2093 18.59 16.70 -1.89 ---- 0.92 3.31 2.39

2094 18.57 16.70 -1.87 ---- 0.92 3.31 2.39

2095 18.56 16.70 -1.86 ---- 0.92 3.31 2.40

2096 18.55 16.70 -1.85 ---- 0.91 3.31 2.40

2097 18.56 16.70 -1.86 ---- 0.91 3.31 2.40

Summarized Rates: OASDI Summarized Rates: OASDI

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Year of reserve 

depletion1

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

2022 - 2096 17.86% 16.75% -1.11% 2059 0.66% 2.97% 2.31%

Office of the Chief Actuary

Note: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2022 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration

1

Under current law the year of combined Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2035. January 31, 2023

Proposal Change from Current Law

Expressed as a percentage of current-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of current-law

taxable payroll
Table 1a - General Fund Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Reserves, and Theoretical OASDI Reserves

"Social Security Enhancement and Protection Act of 2023", Introduced by Representative Moore

Percentage

of Payroll

Annual

Amounts

Accumulated as of 

End of Year

Gross Domestic 

Product

Without General

Fund Transfers

With Plan General

Fund Transfers

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,742.4 24,670.2 2,742.4 2,742.4

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,628.4 25,333.6 2,628.4 2,628.4

2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,500.4 25,907.1 2,490.8 2,490.8

2025 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,385.5 26,444.2 2,331.1 2,331.1

2026 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,292.1 26,928.8 2,156.8 2,156.8

2027 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,212.5 27,371.7 1,959.8 1,959.8

2028 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,148.2 27,763.6 1,741.2 1,741.2

2029 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,101.3 28,119.0 1,502.6 1,502.6

2030 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,061.1 28,408.3 1,244.3 1,244.3

2031 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,028.1 28,622.8 968.1 968.1

2032 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,004.9 28,765.3 675.8 675.8

2033 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,993.7 28,828.0 370.4 370.4

2034 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,971.6 28,790.9 54.8 54.8

2035 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,939.3 28,673.1 -268.1 -268.1

2036 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,898.6 28,513.6 -595.9 -595.9

2037 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,849.8 28,324.8 -928.1 -928.1

2038 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,794.4 28,137.7 -1,263.3 -1,263.3

2039 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,734.0 27,941.1 -1,599.7 -1,599.7

2040 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,670.2 27,743.7 -1,935.8 -1,935.8

2041 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,604.0 27,541.8 -2,270.6 -2,270.6

2042 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,534.8 27,341.5 -2,604.5 -2,604.5

2043 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,463.4 27,144.6 -2,937.0 -2,937.0

2044 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,389.6 26,948.3 -3,268.1 -3,268.1

2045 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,313.4 26,757.4 -3,597.9 -3,597.9

2046 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,235.2 26,570.0 -3,926.3 -3,926.3

2047 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,154.3 26,384.5 -4,253.8 -4,253.8

2048 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,070.8 26,206.1 -4,580.7 -4,580.7

2049 0.0 0.0 0.0 984.5 26,030.9 -4,907.1 -4,907.1

2050 0.0 0.0 0.0 894.9 25,861.5 -5,233.6 -5,233.6

2051 0.0 0.0 0.0 802.3 25,694.2 -5,560.0 -5,560.0

2052 0.0 0.0 0.0 706.8 25,529.0 -5,886.6 -5,886.6

2053 0.0 0.0 0.0 607.7 25,365.7 -6,213.9 -6,213.9

2054 0.0 0.0 0.0 504.8 25,203.7 -6,542.1 -6,542.1

2055 0.0 0.0 0.0 397.8 25,044.6 -6,871.9 -6,871.9

2056 0.0 0.0 0.0 286.4 24,887.4 -7,203.5 -7,203.5

2057 0.0 0.0 0.0 170.2 24,731.9 -7,537.2 -7,537.2

2058 0.0 0.0 0.0 49.1 24,577.6 -7,873.3 -7,873.3

2059 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 24,422.8 -8,211.8 -8,211.8

2060 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 24,268.8 -8,552.6 -8,552.6

2061 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 24,113.7 -8,895.5 -8,895.5

2062 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 23,958.9 -9,240.2 -9,240.2

2063 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 23,803.0 -9,586.4 -9,586.4

2064 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 23,646.1 -9,933.9 -9,933.9

2065 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 23,488.7 -10,282.4 -10,282.4

2066 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 23,330.7 -10,632.1 -10,632.1

2067 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 23,172.4 -10,982.7 -10,982.7

2068 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 23,014.1 -11,334.5 -11,334.5

2069 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 22,854.0 -11,687.5 -11,687.5

2070 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 22,693.2 -12,041.8 -12,041.8

2071 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 22,533.2 -12,397.0 -12,397.0

2072 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 22,374.2 -12,753.1 -12,753.1

2073 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 22,217.6 -13,110.0 -13,110.0

2074 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 22,065.4 -13,467.4 -13,467.4

2075 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 21,915.7 -13,825.0 -13,825.0

2076 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 21,768.5 -14,181.9 -14,181.9

2077 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 21,623.0 -14,537.7 -14,537.7

2078 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 21,481.9 -14,891.3 -14,891.3

2079 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 21,344.5 -15,242.0 -15,242.0

2080 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 21,210.9 -15,589.0 -15,589.0

2081 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 21,080.5 -15,931.9 -15,931.9

2082 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 20,953.7 -16,270.3 -16,270.3

2083 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 20,831.5 -16,603.6 -16,603.6

2084 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 20,711.1 -16,931.7 -16,931.7

2085 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 20,594.6 -17,254.1 -17,254.1

2086 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 20,479.3 -17,570.5 -17,570.5

2087 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 20,366.1 -17,880.7 -17,880.7

2088 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 20,254.0 -18,184.7 -18,184.7

2089 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 20,142.8 -18,482.8 -18,482.8

2090 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 20,032.9 -18,775.3 -18,775.3

2091 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 19,922.5 -19,062.9 -19,062.9

2092 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 19,811.5 -19,346.2 -19,346.2

2093 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 19,699.9 -19,625.9 -19,625.9

2094 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 19,587.1 -19,902.6 -19,902.6

2095 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 19,473.8 -20,176.8 -20,176.8

2096 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 19,359.0 -20,449.2 -20,449.2

2097 0.0 0.0 0.0 ---- 19,243.1 -20,720.3 -20,720.3

Total 2022-2096 0.0

Notes: Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2022 Trustees Report.

 Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.3%. Office of the Chief Actuary

1

 Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption Social Security Administration

 that the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury. January 31, 2023

Calendar

Year

Proposal General Fund Transfers Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2022

Proposal

Total OASDI

Trust Fund

Reserves 

at End of Year

Theoretical Social Security1

with Borrowing Authority

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 

1-1-2022 Net OASDI Trust Fund Reserves at End of Year
Table 1b - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget Scoring1

 and Federal Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI (Present Value D

"Social Security Enhancement and Protection Act of 2023", Introduced by Representative Moore

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Cash Flow

Change in Total

Federal Debt

 Subject to Limit 

End Of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 9.7 9.7 -9.7 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 44.7 44.7 -54.4 44.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2026 0.0 80.9 80.9 -135.3 82.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2027 0.0 117.4 117.4 -252.7 120.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2028 0.0 154.4 154.4 -407.1 161.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2029 0.0 191.6 191.6 -598.7 203.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2030 0.0 218.1 218.1 -816.8 236.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2031 0.0 243.1 243.1 -1,059.9 270.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2032 0.0 269.1 269.1 -1,329.1 306.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2033 0.0 294.3 294.3 -1,623.3 346.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2034 0.0 293.5 293.5 -1,916.8 361.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2035 0.0 290.5 290.5 -2,207.3 374.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2036 0.0 287.1 287.1 -2,494.5 385.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2037 0.0 283.4 283.4 -2,777.9 395.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2038 0.0 279.8 279.8 -3,057.7 405.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2039 0.0 276.0 276.0 -3,333.7 414.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2040 0.0 272.3 272.3 -3,606.0 423.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2041 0.0 268.6 268.6 -3,874.6 432.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2042 0.0 264.8 264.8 -4,139.4 440.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2043 0.0 261.0 261.0 -4,400.4 448.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2044 0.0 257.3 257.3 -4,657.7 457.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2045 0.0 253.6 253.6 -4,911.3 465.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2046 0.0 250.1 250.1 -5,161.5 473.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2047 0.0 246.7 246.7 -5,408.1 481.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2048 0.0 243.3 243.3 -5,651.5 488.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2049 0.0 240.1 240.1 -5,891.6 496.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2050 0.0 236.9 236.9 -6,128.5 504.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2051 0.0 233.9 233.9 -6,362.4 512.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2052 0.0 231.0 231.0 -6,593.3 519.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2053 0.0 228.2 228.2 -6,821.5 527.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2054 0.0 225.5 225.5 -7,047.0 535.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2055 0.0 222.8 222.8 -7,269.8 542.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2056 0.0 220.2 220.2 -7,489.9 550.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2057 0.0 217.6 217.6 -7,707.5 557.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2058 0.0 215.0 215.0 -7,922.4 564.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2059 0.0 212.4 212.4 -8,134.8 572.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2060 0.0 209.8 209.8 -8,344.5 579.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2061 0.0 207.2 207.2 -8,551.7 586.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2062 0.0 204.7 204.7 -8,756.4 592.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2063 0.0 202.2 202.2 -8,958.6 599.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2064 0.0 199.8 199.8 -9,158.4 606.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2065 0.0 197.4 197.4 -9,355.7 613.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2066 0.0 195.1 195.1 -9,550.8 619.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2067 0.0 192.8 192.8 -9,743.6 626.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2068 0.0 190.6 190.6 -9,934.2 632.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2069 0.0 188.4 188.4 -10,122.6 639.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2070 0.0 186.3 186.3 -10,308.9 645.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2071 0.0 184.3 184.3 -10,493.2 652.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2072 0.0 182.3 182.3 -10,675.5 658.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2073 0.0 180.4 180.4 -10,855.9 665.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2074 0.0 178.6 178.6 -11,034.5 671.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2075 0.0 176.9 176.9 -11,211.5 677.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2076 0.0 175.3 175.3 -11,386.8 684.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2077 0.0 173.7 173.7 -11,560.5 690.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2078 0.0 172.3 172.3 -11,732.8 697.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2079 0.0 170.9 170.9 -11,903.7 703.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2080 0.0 169.6 169.6 -12,073.3 710.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2081 0.0 168.4 168.4 -12,241.7 716.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2082 0.0 167.2 167.2 -12,408.9 722.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2083 0.0 166.1 166.1 -12,575.0 729.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2084 0.0 165.0 165.0 -12,740.0 735.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2085 0.0 164.0 164.0 -12,904.0 742.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2086 0.0 163.0 163.0 -13,067.0 748.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2087 0.0 162.0 162.0 -13,229.0 755.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2088 0.0 161.1 161.1 -13,390.1 761.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2089 0.0 160.3 160.3 -13,550.4 768.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2090 0.0 159.4 159.4 -13,709.8 774.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2091 0.0 158.7 158.7 -13,868.5 781.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2092 0.0 157.9 157.9 -14,026.3 787.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2093 0.0 157.0 157.0 -14,183.4 793.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2094 0.0 156.2 156.2 -14,339.6 800.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2095 0.0 155.4 155.4 -14,494.9 806.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2096 0.0 154.5 154.5 -14,649.4 812.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total 2022-2096 0.0 14,649.4 14,649.4

Notes: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2022 Trustees Report.

 Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.3%.

 Budget cash flows do not reflect effects on the Medicare Hospital Insurance Trust Fund of income taxation of OASDI benefits. Office of the Chief Actuary

1 Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would nonetheless Social Security Administration

 be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. January 31, 2023

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2022
Table 1b - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget Scoring1

 and Federal Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI (Nominal Dollars)

"Social Security Enhancement and Protection Act of 2023", Introduced by Representative Moore

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year2

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance2

Change in 

Annual On 

Budget Cash 

Flow

Change in Total

Federal Debt 

Subject to Limit 

End of Year2

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance2

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 10.2 10.2 -10.3 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 48.2 48.2 -59.4 49.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2026 0.0 89.2 89.2 -151.1 91.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2027 0.0 132.6 132.6 -289.4 138.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2028 0.0 179.0 179.0 -478.9 189.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2029 0.0 228.5 228.5 -724.9 246.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2030 0.0 267.9 267.9 -1,020.1 295.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2031 0.0 308.5 308.5 -1,369.0 349.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2032 0.0 353.7 353.7 -1,779.0 409.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

Notes: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2022 Trustees Report.

 Budget cash flows do not reflect effects on the Medicare Hospital Insurance Trust Fund of income taxation of OASDI benefits

1 Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would nonetheless Office of the Chief Actuary

 be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. Social Security Administration

2 Includes the effect of accumulated interest income. January 31, 2023

Billions of Nominal Dollars
Table 1c - Current Law and Proposal Cost, Expenditures, and Income: As Percent of Gross Domestic Product

"Social Security Enhancement and Protection Act of 2023", Introduced by Representative Moore

Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

2022 4.98 4.98 4.53 4.98 4.98 4.53

2023 5.09 5.09 4.63 5.09 5.09 4.63

2024 5.17 5.17 4.63 5.26 5.26 4.77

2025 5.26 5.26 4.66 5.36 5.36 4.92

2026 5.36 5.36 4.71 5.46 5.46 5.11

2027 5.45 5.45 4.73 5.56 5.56 5.27

2028 5.54 5.54 4.75 5.66 5.66 5.42

2029 5.62 5.62 4.77 5.74 5.74 5.57

2030 5.69 5.69 4.78 5.81 5.81 5.67

2031 5.76 5.76 4.79 5.89 5.89 5.77

2032 5.81 5.81 4.79 5.94 5.94 5.85

2033 5.85 5.85 4.79 5.98 5.98 5.94

2034 5.88 5.88 4.78 6.02 6.02 5.94

2035 5.90 4.96 4.77 6.05 6.05 5.93

2036 5.92 4.77 4.77 6.07 6.07 5.92

2037 5.94 4.76 4.76 6.09 6.09 5.91

2038 5.95 4.75 4.75 6.11 6.11 5.90

2039 5.95 4.74 4.74 6.12 6.12 5.89

2040 5.95 4.73 4.73 6.12 6.12 5.88

2041 5.95 4.72 4.72 6.12 6.12 5.87

2042 5.94 4.72 4.72 6.12 6.12 5.86

2043 5.94 4.71 4.71 6.12 6.12 5.85

2044 5.93 4.70 4.70 6.12 6.12 5.84

2045 5.93 4.69 4.69 6.12 6.12 5.83

2046 5.92 4.68 4.68 6.12 6.12 5.82

2047 5.92 4.67 4.67 6.13 6.13 5.81

2048 5.92 4.67 4.67 6.13 6.13 5.81

2049 5.92 4.66 4.66 6.14 6.14 5.80

2050 5.92 4.65 4.65 6.14 6.14 5.79

2051 5.92 4.65 4.65 6.15 6.15 5.78

2052 5.93 4.64 4.64 6.16 6.16 5.78

2053 5.93 4.64 4.64 6.17 6.17 5.77

2054 5.94 4.63 4.63 6.18 6.18 5.76

2055 5.95 4.62 4.62 6.19 6.19 5.76

2056 5.96 4.62 4.62 6.21 6.21 5.75

2057 5.97 4.62 4.62 6.22 6.22 5.75

2058 5.99 4.61 4.61 6.24 6.24 5.74

2059 6.00 4.61 4.61 6.26 5.94 5.74

2060 6.01 4.60 4.60 6.28 5.73 5.73

2061 6.03 4.60 4.60 6.30 5.73 5.73

2062 6.04 4.60 4.60 6.32 5.72 5.72

2063 6.05 4.59 4.59 6.33 5.72 5.72

2064 6.06 4.59 4.59 6.35 5.71 5.71

2065 6.07 4.58 4.58 6.36 5.71 5.71

2066 6.08 4.58 4.58 6.37 5.71 5.71

2067 6.10 4.58 4.58 6.39 5.70 5.70

2068 6.11 4.57 4.57 6.40 5.70 5.70

2069 6.12 4.57 4.57 6.42 5.69 5.69

2070 6.13 4.57 4.57 6.43 5.69 5.69

2071 6.14 4.56 4.56 6.45 5.68 5.68

2072 6.16 4.56 4.56 6.46 5.68 5.68

2073 6.17 4.56 4.56 6.48 5.67 5.67

2074 6.18 4.55 4.55 6.49 5.67 5.67

2075 6.18 4.55 4.55 6.50 5.67 5.67

2076 6.19 4.54 4.54 6.50 5.66 5.66

2077 6.19 4.54 4.54 6.50 5.66 5.66

2078 6.19 4.53 4.53 6.50 5.65 5.65

2079 6.18 4.53 4.53 6.49 5.64 5.64

2080 6.17 4.52 4.52 6.48 5.64 5.64

2081 6.15 4.52 4.52 6.47 5.63 5.63

2082 6.13 4.51 4.51 6.45 5.63 5.63

2083 6.11 4.51 4.51 6.43 5.62 5.62

2084 6.09 4.50 4.50 6.41 5.61 5.61

2085 6.07 4.50 4.50 6.38 5.60 5.60

2086 6.04 4.49 4.49 6.35 5.60 5.60

2087 6.01 4.48 4.48 6.33 5.59 5.59

2088 5.99 4.48 4.48 6.30 5.58 5.58

2089 5.96 4.47 4.47 6.27 5.58 5.58

2090 5.93 4.47 4.47 6.24 5.57 5.57

2091 5.91 4.46 4.46 6.22 5.57 5.57

2092 5.90 4.46 4.46 6.20 5.56 5.56

2093 5.88 4.46 4.46 6.19 5.56 5.56

2094 5.87 4.45 4.45 6.18 5.55 5.55

2095 5.86 4.45 4.45 6.17 5.55 5.55

2096 5.86 4.45 4.45 6.16 5.55 5.55

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Note: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2022 Trustees Report.

Current Law OASDI Proposal OASDI

Calendar

Year

January 31, 2023
Table 1d - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Reserves / Unfunded Obligation (Present Value Dollars)

"Social Security Enhancement and Protection Act of 2023", Introduced by Representative Moore

Year

Current Law OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Income - Cost

Total Change

Through

End of Year

Proposal OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) = cumulative sum(4) (6) = (1)+(5)

2022 2,742.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,742.4

2023 2,628.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,628.4

2024 2,490.8 34.9 25.2 9.7 9.7 2,500.4

2025 2,331.1 71.3 26.6 44.7 54.4 2,385.5

2026 2,156.8 109.1 28.2 80.9 135.3 2,292.1

2027 1,959.8 147.2 29.8 117.4 252.7 2,212.5

2028 1,741.2 185.8 31.4 154.4 407.1 2,148.2

2029 1,502.6 224.7 33.0 191.6 598.7 2,101.3

2030 1,244.3 252.7 34.6 218.1 816.8 2,061.1

2031 968.1 279.2 36.1 243.1 1,059.9 2,028.1

2032 675.8 306.6 37.4 269.1 1,329.1 2,004.9

2033 370.4 333.1 38.8 294.3 1,623.3 1,993.7

2034 54.8 333.6 40.1 293.5 1,916.8 1,971.6

2035 -268.1 331.8 41.3 290.5 2,207.3 1,939.3

2036 -595.9 329.6 42.5 287.1 2,494.5 1,898.6

2037 -928.1 327.0 43.6 283.4 2,777.9 1,849.8

2038 -1,263.3 324.4 44.7 279.8 3,057.7 1,794.4

2039 -1,599.7 321.7 45.7 276.0 3,333.7 1,734.0

2040 -1,935.8 319.0 46.7 272.3 3,606.0 1,670.2

2041 -2,270.6 316.3 47.7 268.6 3,874.6 1,604.0

2042 -2,604.5 313.6 48.8 264.8 4,139.4 1,534.8

2043 -2,937.0 311.0 50.0 261.0 4,400.4 1,463.4

2044 -3,268.1 308.4 51.1 257.3 4,657.7 1,389.6

2045 -3,597.9 305.9 52.3 253.6 4,911.3 1,313.4

2046 -3,926.3 303.4 53.3 250.1 5,161.5 1,235.2

2047 -4,253.8 301.0 54.4 246.7 5,408.1 1,154.3

2048 -4,580.7 298.7 55.4 243.3 5,651.5 1,070.8

2049 -4,907.1 296.5 56.4 240.1 5,891.6 984.5

2050 -5,233.6 294.3 57.4 236.9 6,128.5 894.9

2051 -5,560.0 292.2 58.3 233.9 6,362.4 802.3

2052 -5,886.6 290.1 59.1 231.0 6,593.3 706.8

2053 -6,213.9 288.0 59.8 228.2 6,821.5 607.7

2054 -6,542.1 285.9 60.5 225.5 7,047.0 504.8

2055 -6,871.9 283.9 61.1 222.8 7,269.8 397.8

2056 -7,203.5 282.0 61.8 220.2 7,489.9 286.4

2057 -7,537.2 280.0 62.5 217.6 7,707.5 170.2

2058 -7,873.3 278.1 63.2 215.0 7,922.4 49.1

2059 -8,211.8 276.2 63.9 212.4 8,134.8 -77.0

2060 -8,552.6 274.3 64.5 209.8 8,344.5 -208.1

2061 -8,895.5 272.4 65.2 207.2 8,551.7 -343.8

2062 -9,240.2 270.5 65.8 204.7 8,756.4 -483.8

2063 -9,586.4 268.6 66.4 202.2 8,958.6 -627.8

2064 -9,933.9 266.6 66.9 199.8 9,158.4 -775.5

2065 -10,282.4 264.7 67.3 197.4 9,355.7 -926.7

2066 -10,632.1 262.8 67.7 195.1 9,550.8 -1,081.3

2067 -10,982.7 260.8 68.0 192.8 9,743.6 -1,239.2

2068 -11,334.5 258.9 68.3 190.6 9,934.2 -1,400.3

2069 -11,687.5 256.9 68.5 188.4 10,122.6 -1,564.9

2070 -12,041.8 254.9 68.6 186.3 10,308.9 -1,732.9

2071 -12,397.0 253.0 68.7 184.3 10,493.2 -1,903.8

2072 -12,753.1 251.0 68.7 182.3 10,675.5 -2,077.7

2073 -13,110.0 249.1 68.7 180.4 10,855.9 -2,254.1

2074 -13,467.4 247.2 68.6 178.6 11,034.5 -2,432.9

2075 -13,825.0 245.3 68.4 176.9 11,211.5 -2,613.5

2076 -14,181.9 243.5 68.2 175.3 11,386.8 -2,795.1

2077 -14,537.7 241.7 67.9 173.7 11,560.5 -2,977.1

2078 -14,891.3 239.9 67.6 172.3 11,732.8 -3,158.5

2079 -15,242.0 238.2 67.3 170.9 11,903.7 -3,338.3

2080 -15,589.0 236.5 66.9 169.6 12,073.3 -3,515.7

2081 -15,931.9 234.8 66.4 168.4 12,241.7 -3,690.2

2082 -16,270.3 233.2 66.0 167.2 12,408.9 -3,861.4

2083 -16,603.6 231.6 65.5 166.1 12,575.0 -4,028.6

2084 -16,931.7 230.1 65.0 165.0 12,740.0 -4,191.7

2085 -17,254.1 228.5 64.6 164.0 12,904.0 -4,350.1

2086 -17,570.5 227.1 64.1 163.0 13,067.0 -4,503.6

2087 -17,880.7 225.6 63.6 162.0 13,229.0 -4,651.7

2088 -18,184.7 224.2 63.1 161.1 13,390.1 -4,794.6

2089 -18,482.8 222.8 62.5 160.3 13,550.4 -4,932.4

2090 -18,775.3 221.4 62.0 159.4 13,709.8 -5,065.5

2091 -19,062.9 220.0 61.4 158.7 13,868.5 -5,194.4

2092 -19,346.2 218.7 60.8 157.9 14,026.3 -5,319.9

2093 -19,625.9 217.3 60.3 157.0 14,183.4 -5,442.5

2094 -19,902.6 216.0 59.8 156.2 14,339.6 -5,563.0

2095 -20,176.8 214.6 59.2 155.4 14,494.9 -5,681.9

2096 -20,449.2 213.2 58.7 154.5 14,649.4 -5,799.8

Total 2022-2096 18,773.2 4,123.8 14,649.4

Office of the Chief Actuary

Notes: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2022 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration

 Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.3%. January 31, 2023

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2022
Table 1d.n - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Reserves / Unfunded Obligation (Nominal Dollars)

"Social Security Enhancement and Protection Act of 2023", Introduced by Representative Moore

Year

Current Law OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Income - Cost

Total Change

Through

End of Year1

Proposal OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) (6) = (1)+(5)

2022 2,805.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,805.2

2023 2,747.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,747.0

2024 2,658.9 36.9 26.6 10.3 10.3 2,669.3

2025 2,543.1 77.8 28.7 49.0 59.4 2,602.5

2026 2,408.0 122.8 31.1 91.7 151.1 2,559.1

2027 2,243.4 171.9 33.7 138.3 289.4 2,532.8

2028 2,047.4 225.9 36.5 189.5 478.9 2,526.3

2029 1,818.6 285.4 39.4 246.0 724.9 2,543.4

2030 1,553.7 337.7 42.5 295.2 1,020.1 2,573.8

2031 1,250.8 394.8 45.8 349.0 1,369.0 2,619.8

2032 905.4 459.2 49.3 409.9 1,779.0 2,684.4

Notes: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2022 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

 Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.3%. Social Security Administration

1 Includes the effect of accumulated interest income. January 31, 2023

Billions of Nominal Dollars