SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE, MD 21235-0001

SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

April 12, 2018

The Honorable Ron Wyden

United States Senate

Washington, D.C. 20510

Dear Senator Wyden:

Enactment of S. 2653, the “Elder Poverty Relief Act,” which was introduced today with Senators 

Brown and Casey, would provide an additional monthly benefit amount for selected Social 

Security (OASDI) beneficiaries and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) recipients, effective for 

benefits paid for 2019 and later. The additional monthly benefit amount would be about $85 for 

2019 and would increase with the national average wage indexing series thereafter.

We estimate that this proposal would increase (worsen) the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit 

by 0.27 percent of taxable payroll, and would increase the annual deficit for the OASDI program

by about 0.36 percent of payroll for 2091. The year of projected combined OASDI Trust Fund 

reserve depletion would be 2034, the same as under current law. Table 1, enclosed, presents

projected annual and 75-year-summarized cost rates, income rates, and balances for the OASDI 

program assuming enactment of the proposal, and changes in these values from those projected 

under current law. In addition, the proposal would increase Federal SSI payments from the 

General Fund of the Treasury by an estimated $10.3 billion for the period 2019 through 2027. 

The estimates presented here are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2017 Trustees 

Report and the assumptions of the 2017 SSI Annual Report. These estimates reflect the 

combined effort of many in the Office of the Chief Actuary, but most particularly Karen Glenn, 

Chris Chaplain, Daniel Nickerson, Michael Stephens, and Chelsea Shudtz.

Proposal Specifications

Under this proposal, qualifying Social Security beneficiaries and SSI recipients would receive an 

additional monthly benefit (the “poverty relief benefit”) for any qualifying month in a year equal

to 1/12th of 2 percent of the national average wage index (AWI) for the second prior year. The

poverty relief benefit amount would be the same for all qualifying individuals in a month, would 

be paid in addition to the Social Security benefit or SSI payment for that month, and would not 

be counted as income or earnings as an offset against the Social Security or SSI amount. The 

estimated monthly poverty relief benefit for 2019 is $85, based on the projected level of the AWI

of $51,314.31 for 2017 in the 2017 Trustees Report. This monthly poverty relief benefit amount 
Page 2 – The Honorable Ron Wyden

would be recomputed each year for all qualifying individuals, reflecting the newly determined 

AWI value for the second prior year. 

Individuals would qualify for the monthly poverty relief benefit under any of the following four 

sets of requirements:

1. Social Security beneficiaries who have attained age 82.

2. Social Security beneficiaries who have attained normal retirement age (66 and 6 months 

for those attaining age 62 in 2019, rising under current law to 67 for those attaining age 

62 in 2022 or later), and who have both:

a. Average monthly indexed earnings at or below the PIA first bend point used for 

computing their benefit (estimated at $944 for 2019 initial eligibility); and

b. At least 11 “years of coverage”, that is, at least 11 years with earnings above the 

specified level used for determinations under the Windfall Elimination Provision 

(estimated at $25,200 for 2019). This dollar level is increased annually by 

changes in the AWI.

3. SSI recipients who have attained the Social Security normal retirement age.

4. Individuals who have received Social Security benefits and/or SSI payments for at least 

240 distinct months after attaining age 19. Any combination of Social Security benefits 

and SSI payments may be used to reach the 240-month threshold.

The poverty relief benefit would be paid from the applicable Social Security OASI or DI Trust 

Fund for any qualifying month for which the individual is in receipt of a Social Security benefit. 

The poverty relief benefit would be paid from the General Fund of the Treasury for any 

qualifying month in which the individual is in receipt of an SSI monthly payment but not in 

receipt of any Social Security monthly benefit. 

Proposal Effects

Enactment of the proposal would increase the OASDI actuarial deficit by an estimated 0.27

percent of payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the OASDI program by about 0.36

percent of payroll for 2091. Current-law Social Security benefits and SSI payments are 

increased annually by COLAs (based on the CPI) after initial eligibility, while the poverty relief 

benefit would increase annually by changes in the AWI. Because the AWI is projected to 

increase about 1.2 percent faster than the CPI in the future, the poverty relief benefit would 

generally become a larger share of an individual’s total Social Security benefit or SSI payment in 

years after the year of initial entitlement for the poverty relief benefit. 

We estimate that approximately 96 percent of the Social Security area population age 82 and 

older would receive the poverty relief benefit. For 2019, we estimate that approximately 0.9

million of those qualifying for the poverty relief benefit would qualify as SSI-only recipients. 

The table below shows estimated total additional payments from the General Fund of the 

Treasury for this group for years 2019 through 2027:
Page 3 – The Honorable Ron Wyden

Calendar year

Total Poverty Relief Benefits

Paid from the General Fund of 

the Treasury (billions)

2019 $0.9

2020 1.0

2021 1.0

2022 1.1

2023 1.1

2024 1.2

2025 1.3

2026 1.3

2027 1.4

Total, 2019-27 $10.3

We hope these estimates are helpful. Please let me know if we may provide further assistance.

Sincerely,

 Stephen C. Goss, ASA, MAAA

Chief Actuary

Enclosure
Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2017 13.41 13.03 -0.38 298 0.00 0.00 0.00

2018 13.49 12.93 -0.56 287 0.00 0.00 0.00

2019 13.85 12.95 -0.90 270 0.15 0.01 -0.15

2020 14.01 12.97 -1.04 255 0.16 0.01 -0.15

2021 14.18 13.00 -1.18 240 0.16 0.01 -0.15

2022 14.42 13.03 -1.39 225 0.17 0.01 -0.16

2023 14.72 13.06 -1.66 208 0.17 0.01 -0.16

2024 15.00 13.09 -1.91 192 0.18 0.01 -0.17

2025 15.28 13.11 -2.17 174 0.19 0.01 -0.18

2026 15.56 13.14 -2.42 156 0.19 0.01 -0.18

2027 15.81 13.16 -2.65 138 0.20 0.01 -0.19

2028 16.06 13.18 -2.88 120 0.20 0.01 -0.19

2029 16.28 13.19 -3.09 101 0.21 0.01 -0.20

2030 16.49 13.21 -3.28 82 0.22 0.01 -0.21

2031 16.68 13.22 -3.46 62 0.23 0.01 -0.22

2032 16.85 13.23 -3.62 42 0.24 0.01 -0.23

2033 16.99 13.24 -3.75 21 0.25 0.01 -0.23

2034 17.10 13.25 -3.85 0 0.25 0.01 -0.24

2035 17.19 13.25 -3.93 ---- 0.26 0.01 -0.25

2036 17.25 13.26 -3.99 ---- 0.26 0.01 -0.25

2037 17.29 13.26 -4.03 ---- 0.27 0.01 -0.26

2038 17.30 13.26 -4.04 ---- 0.28 0.01 -0.26

2039 17.28 13.26 -4.02 ---- 0.28 0.02 -0.27

2040 17.25 13.26 -3.99 ---- 0.29 0.02 -0.27

2041 17.21 13.26 -3.95 ---- 0.30 0.02 -0.28

2042 17.16 13.26 -3.90 ---- 0.30 0.02 -0.29

2043 17.11 13.26 -3.86 ---- 0.31 0.02 -0.29

2044 17.07 13.26 -3.81 ---- 0.31 0.02 -0.29

2045 17.03 13.25 -3.78 ---- 0.32 0.02 -0.30

2046 17.00 13.25 -3.75 ---- 0.32 0.02 -0.30

2047 16.97 13.25 -3.72 ---- 0.32 0.02 -0.30

2048 16.94 13.25 -3.69 ---- 0.32 0.02 -0.30

2049 16.91 13.25 -3.66 ---- 0.32 0.02 -0.30

2050 16.89 13.25 -3.64 ---- 0.32 0.02 -0.30

2051 16.88 13.25 -3.63 ---- 0.32 0.02 -0.30

2052 16.88 13.25 -3.63 ---- 0.32 0.02 -0.30

2053 16.89 13.25 -3.64 ---- 0.32 0.02 -0.31

2054 16.91 13.25 -3.66 ---- 0.32 0.02 -0.30

2055 16.94 13.25 -3.69 ---- 0.32 0.02 -0.30

2056 16.97 13.26 -3.72 ---- 0.32 0.02 -0.30

2057 17.01 13.26 -3.75 ---- 0.32 0.02 -0.30

2058 17.06 13.26 -3.79 ---- 0.32 0.02 -0.30

2059 17.10 13.27 -3.83 ---- 0.32 0.02 -0.30

2060 17.15 13.27 -3.88 ---- 0.32 0.02 -0.30

2061 17.19 13.27 -3.92 ---- 0.32 0.02 -0.30

2062 17.24 13.28 -3.96 ---- 0.32 0.02 -0.30

2063 17.29 13.28 -4.01 ---- 0.32 0.02 -0.30

2064 17.34 13.28 -4.06 ---- 0.32 0.02 -0.31

2065 17.39 13.29 -4.11 ---- 0.33 0.02 -0.31

2066 17.45 13.29 -4.16 ---- 0.33 0.02 -0.31

2067 17.50 13.29 -4.21 ---- 0.33 0.02 -0.31

2068 17.56 13.30 -4.26 ---- 0.33 0.02 -0.32

2069 17.61 13.30 -4.31 ---- 0.34 0.02 -0.32

2070 17.67 13.30 -4.36 ---- 0.34 0.02 -0.32

2071 17.72 13.31 -4.41 ---- 0.34 0.02 -0.33

2072 17.76 13.31 -4.45 ---- 0.35 0.02 -0.33

2073 17.80 13.31 -4.49 ---- 0.35 0.02 -0.33

2074 17.84 13.31 -4.52 ---- 0.36 0.02 -0.34

2075 17.86 13.32 -4.55 ---- 0.36 0.02 -0.34

2076 17.88 13.32 -4.56 ---- 0.36 0.02 -0.34

2077 17.89 13.32 -4.57 ---- 0.36 0.02 -0.34

2078 17.89 13.32 -4.57 ---- 0.37 0.02 -0.35

2079 17.88 13.32 -4.57 ---- 0.37 0.02 -0.35

2080 17.88 13.32 -4.56 ---- 0.37 0.02 -0.35

2081 17.87 13.32 -4.56 ---- 0.37 0.02 -0.35

2082 17.88 13.32 -4.56 ---- 0.37 0.02 -0.35

2083 17.88 13.32 -4.57 ---- 0.37 0.02 -0.35

2084 17.90 13.32 -4.58 ---- 0.37 0.02 -0.35

2085 17.92 13.32 -4.60 ---- 0.37 0.02 -0.35

2086 17.96 13.32 -4.63 ---- 0.37 0.02 -0.35

2087 17.99 13.32 -4.67 ---- 0.38 0.02 -0.35

2088 18.03 13.33 -4.71 ---- 0.38 0.02 -0.36

2089 18.08 13.33 -4.75 ---- 0.38 0.02 -0.36

2090 18.13 13.33 -4.80 ---- 0.38 0.02 -0.36

2091 18.18 13.34 -4.84 ---- 0.38 0.02 -0.36

2092 18.23 13.34 -4.89 ---- 0.38 0.02 -0.36

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

16.95% 13.85% -3.10% 2034 0.29% 0.02% -0.27%

Office of the Chief Actuary

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration

1 Under present law the year of combined Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034.

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll

Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

S. 2653, the "Elder Poverty Relief Act"

Proposal Change from Present Law

Summarized Rates: OASDI

Year of reserve 

depletion1

Summarized Rates: OASDI

2017 - 2091

April 12, 2018