Adult OASDI Beneficiaries and SSI Recipients 

Who Need Representative Payees: 

Projections for 2025 and 2035

Bob Weathers

Representative Payee Forum

March 27,2017
Purpose of Paper

• Examine how demographic changes may influence the need for 

representative payees in the future

• Focus on adults, as parent serves as a representative payee for the vast 

majority of children, students, and disabled adult children

• Examine the share of beneficiaries with non-family member serving as a 

representative payee

• Identify some of the challenges to projecting the need for representative 

payees

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Methodology

• Disaggregate data on OASDI beneficiaries and SSI recipients in CY 2013 by 

age and program 

• Compute the proportion with a representative payee within each 

disaggregated group in CY 2013 

• Use Modeling Income in the Near Term (MINT) to project beneficiary 

population for 2025 and 2035, disaggregated by age and program

• Multiply CY 2013 proportions for each disaggregated group by the 2025 (and 

2035) MINT projections, then sum disaggregated groups to obtain overall 

number of beneficiaries who will need a representative payee 

• Perform separate projections for the subset with a non-family member serving as a representative payee, using the same approach 

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Sources of Projection Uncertainty

• Will the proportion of beneficiaries with a representative payee 

remain the same as CY 2013?

• Improvements in mortality might be accompanied by increases in disabling 

health conditions and the need for representative payees 

• Reductions in the prevalence of some conditions (e.g., recent JAMA study on 

dementia trends) might reduce the need for rep. payees 

• Are there more beneficiaries who need a representative payee than 

reported in the data?

• Changes in the capacity to manage benefits might not be reported to SSA

• OIG report suggests more beneficiaries may need a rep. payee

• Many identified by OIG have a family member who manages finances, but...

• Changes in family composition are likely to increase financial vulnerability 

• Monitoring both of these issues is important for assessing and 

updating our projections, and for agency strategic planning on the 

rep payee program 

4
Data on All 8.1 Million Beneficiaries with a 

Representative Payee in CY 2013 

Younger than 

18

55%

Disabled Adult Child 

or Student

9%

SSI-only Adult

16%

Retired Worker

6%

Disabled 

Worker

12%

Widower/Spouse

2%

About 5.2 million Younger than 18 or Disabled Adult Child 

or Student, Not Included in the Study

About 2.9 million 

Adults

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Projected Growth in the Need for Representative Payees

2013 2025 2035

All 2,941,037 3,265,580 3,558,921

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

Number of Beneficiaries

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Projected Growth In Beneficiaries with a Representative Payee, 

By Program

2013 2025 2035

SSI 1,304,931 1,339,576 1,369,479

Disabled worker 957,040 1,077,868 1,118,278

Retired worker 519,780 768,474 1,001,985

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

Number of Beneficiaries

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Projected Growth in Beneficiaries with a Non-Family Member 

Representative Payee

2013 2025 2035

Non-Family Rep Payee 886,217 1,000,553 1,121,201

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Number of Beneficiaries

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Projected Growth In Beneficiaries with a Non-Family Member 

Representative Payee, By Program

2013 2025 2035

SSI 326,310 339,177 346,346

Disabled worker 276,127 304,732 317,635

Retired worker 221,784 326,769 431,498

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

Number of Beneficiaries

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Conclusions

• The number of adults who need a rep payee may increase from: 

• 2.94 million in 2013, 

• to 3.27 million by 2025, and 

• to 3.56 million by 2035.

• The increase is driven by growth in the retired-worker beneficiary pop. from 2013 to 

2025, and 85-or-older age group from 2025 to 2035

• Growth in the number of adults with a non-family member representative payee is somewhat more dramatic, only 57.3 percent of retired-worker beneficiaries had a 

family member serve as rep payee, compared to 71.1 percent of disabled-workers.

• The change in the size and composition of the beneficiary population may pose 

significant challenges, planning for these changes critical

• Projections are subject to uncertainty, updating and improving the projections as new 

data become available will be important for strategic planning purposes 

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More Information

Our Paper: “Adult OASDI Beneficiaries and SSI Recipients Who Need 

Representative Payees: Projections for 2025 and 2035” Social Security 

Bulletin, 2015, 75(2):1-17.

https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v75n2/v75n2p1.pdf

JAMA Paper: “A Comparison of the Prevalence of Dementia in 

the United States in 2000 and 2012” JAMA Internal Medicine, 

2017, 177(1):51-58. 

http://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/article-abstract/2587084

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