SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE, MD 21235-0001

November 17, 2010 

Ms. Alice M. Rivlin, Co-Chair 

Mr. Pete Domenici, Co-Chair 

Debt Reduction Task Force 

Bipartisan Policy Center 

1225 Eye Street NW, Suite 1000 

Washington, D.C. 20005 

Dear Ms. Rivlin and Mr. Domenici: 

I am writing in response to your request for estimates of the financial effects on Social Security 

of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Debt Reduction Task Force plan that is released today. We 

have worked closely with Chuck Konigsberg, Shai Akabas, Loren Adler, Paul Cullinan, Eric 

Toder, and other members of your team to gain an understanding of the provisions and 

implications of the plan. The plan would make numerous changes to the Social Security Act and 

to a broad range of general tax provisions that have implications for the financial status of the 

OASDI program. 

In the analysis presented below and in the enclosed tables we are providing estimates of the 

effects of these provisions on the cost, income, and trust fund assets for the OASDI program, as 

well as the estimated effects on retired worker benefit levels for selected hypothetical worker 

cases. While Task Force plan provisions are reflected to the extent that they would have 

significant implications for the OASDI program, not all effects of these provisions on the unified 

budget are reflected in our analysis. This is specifically the case for tables 1b and 1b.n, which 

reflect implications for the unified budget of only the specified plan provisions as they affect the 

actuarial status of the OASDI program. For example, the direct revenue effects for the onbudget of the various tax provisions are not reflected in this analysis. All estimates are based on 

the intermediate assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report. 

The estimates provided here reflect extraordinary effort by many in the Office of the Chief 

Actuary under substantial time pressure, but most particularly Christopher Chaplain, Daniel 

Nickerson, Tiffany Bosley, Michael Clingman, and Alice Wade. 
2

The Task Force plan includes the following eleven provisions that have significant effects on the 

OASDI program financial operations and actuarial status:

1) Increase the OASDI contribution and benefit base over 38 years starting in 2012, so that 

90 percent of covered earnings will be taxable for 2049 and later.

2) Change the OASDI cost of living adjustment (COLA) to be based on a chained version of 

the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) starting for 

December 2012.

3) Cover earnings of all State and local government employees hired in 2020 and later under 

OASDI.

4) Eliminate the excise tax on premiums for employer sponsored group health insurance and 

make all such premiums subject to OASDI payroll tax, phased in between 2018 and 

2028.

5) Reduce the 15-percent PIA formula factor to 10 percent, phased in gradually between 

2023 and 2052.

6) Starting in 2012, enhance the special minimum benefit to provide a PIA level at benefit 

eligibility equivalent to 133 percent of the 2009 Federal Aged Poverty threshold for 

individuals with earnings of at least 20 percent of the “old-law taxable maximum” in at 

least 30 years. The minimum would be reduced for fewer qualifying years, to zero for 

less than 20 years. The target poverty level would be wage indexed from the 2009 level 

to 2 years before the year of initial benefit eligibility. Up to 8 child-care creditable years 

would be allowed if caring for a child under age 6. The earnings requirement and 

number of child care creditable years allowed would be scaled for workers becoming 

disabled or dying before attaining age 62.

7) Subject contributions to all voluntary salary reduction plans to OASDI payroll tax in the 

same manner as for 401(k)s.

8) Index the PIA formula for OASI benefits to longevity by reducing the factors starting in 

2023 by the change in the ratio of (a) the period life expectancy at 67 for 2018 to (b) the 

period life expectancy at 67 for the 4th year before initial benefit eligibility. For disabled 

workers at conversion to retirement at NRA, the reductions would apply based on the 

proportion of years not disabled from 22 to 61.

9) Increase benefits gradually between ages 81 and 85 reflecting an increase in PIA equal to 

5 percent of the average retired worker PIA in the year age 80 is reached.

10) Tax Reform for Business: Establish a value added tax (VAT) of 3.0 percent for 2012 and 

6.5 percent for 2013 and later. Reduce the corporate income tax from 35 to 27 percent. 

11) Tax Reform for Individuals: Modify the personal income tax to make 2 brackets with 

marginal rates of 15 and 27 percent. OASDI benefits are included as regular income with 

no thresholds. Capital gains are included as regular income. A non-refundable credit for 

low income tax filers age 65 and older is established. A non-refundable credit of 7.5 

percent of OASDI benefit is established. Thus, revenue to OASDHI is based on 7.5 and 

19.5 percent marginal rates on all OASDI benefits.

The balance of this letter provides a summary of the effects of the plan on the actuarial status of 

the OASDI program, our understanding of the specifications of each plan provision, the 

estimated effects on OASDI actuarial status, and a description of our detailed financial results. 
3

Summary of Effects on Actuarial Status

Figure 1 below illustrates the expected change in the combined Old Age, Survivors Insurance 

(OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund assets, expressed as a percent of annual 

program cost, assuming enactment of all provisions of the plan. Assuming enactment, the 

OASDI program would be expected to be solvent for the next 75 years, under the intermediate 

assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report. The level of assets for the theoretical combined OASI 

and DI Trust Funds would rise after 2040, reaching over 450 percent of annual program cost by 

2080. The combined assets would be rising slightly as a percentage of the annual cost of the 

program at the end of the period. Thus, the OASDI program would meet the requirements of 

sustainable solvency under the intermediate assumptions for the 2010 Trustees Report with 

enactment of all provisions of the Task Force plan. 

Note: Trust Fund Ratio for a given year is the ratio of assets in the combined OASI and DI Trust Fund assets at the 

beginning of the year to the cost of the program during the year.

Enactment of all provisions of the plan would eliminate the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit 

of 1.92 percent of taxable payroll under current law, and would result in a positive OASDI 

actuarial balance of 0.56 percent of payroll for the long-range period. 

Figure 2 below illustrates annual projected levels of cost, expenditures, and tax income as a 

percent of the current-law level of taxable payroll. The projected levels of cost reflect the full 
4

cost of present-law scheduled benefits. Projected expenditures under current law include only 

amounts payable when less than the cost after trust fund exhaustion. Under the proposed plan, 

the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds do not exhaust and, thus, payable benefits 

(expenditures) equal scheduled benefits over the 75-year projection period.

Under the Task Force plan, projected OASDI cost exceeds tax income after about 2070, and yet 

the combined trust fund assets continue to grow as a percent of annual program cost. This occurs 

because the assumed interest rate on trust fund assets exceeds the rate of growth in the cost of the 

program under the plan, and thus, not all interest on assets is needed to maintain a stable ratio of 

assets to program cost. The interest in excess of the amount needed to maintain the trust fund 

asset level in relation to annual cost is used, in part, to augment tax income in covering the 

annual cost of the program after 2070.

While aggregate OASDI program cost is reduced under the proposed plan through 2063, it is 

actually higher than under current law thereafter. This suggests an interpretation that the plan 

achieves sustainable solvency for OASDI solely with increased revenue and without benefit 

reduction. In present value terms (see Table 1d) about 90 percent of the improvement in the 

actuarial status of the OASDI Trust Funds through 2084 is due to increased tax revenue, and 

about 10 percent of the improvement is due to a net reduction in benefit cost. However, the 

relatively small net reduction in benefit cost results from largely offsetting effects on benefits 

from provisions that (a) generally reduce benefit levels (such as changes in the PIA formula and 
5

in COLAs), and (b) increase total benefits based on the expansion of the payroll tax base (such as 

increasing the taxable maximum, eliminating exclusion of salary reduction plan contributions 

and ESI premiums, and covering all State and local government employment). If provisions that 

expand the payroll tax base are considered as changes in revenue based on their net effect, then 

the overall change in the long-range actuarial balance is about 30 percent from provisions that 

directly affect benefit levels, and about 70 percent from the net effects of provisions intended to 

increase the payroll tax base. By the end of the 75-year period, 2084, just over one half of the 

change in the annual balance for the OASDI program is accomplished under the plan with 

provisions that directly affect benefit levels. 

It is also useful to consider the projected cost and income for the OASDI program expressed as a 

percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The graph below illustrates these levels under 

both current law and this proposed plan. 

Plan Specification for Provisions Affecting the Social Security Actuarial Status

(1) Increase the OASDI Taxable Maximum Earnings Amount

Under current law, the OASDI contribution and benefit base (taxable maximum) is $106,800 for 

2010 earnings in OASDI covered employment, and will be indexed to the growth rate in the 
6

average economy-wide wage level (AWI) in the future. The percentage of covered earnings that 

is below the base was 90 percent in 1983, was about 85 percent in 2009, and is projected to be 

82.5 percent for 2019 and later under the intermediate assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report. 

This provision would, beginning with 2012, increase the taxable maximum by an additional 2 

percent over the increase in the AWI each year until 90 percent of covered earnings are once 

again below the maximum and are subject to the payroll tax. Thereafter, the maximum would be 

increased at the rate needed to maintain 90 percent of covered earnings taxable. We estimate 

that the additional 2 percent increase will be needed for 38 years, so that the goal of taxing 90 

percent of covered earnings would be achieved for 2049 and later. All earnings subject to the 

payroll tax under this provision would be fully credited to the earnings records of workers and 

used in computing the average indexed monthly earnings (AIME) on which the basic benefit 

(PIA) is based. This provision alone is estimated to reduce the long-range OASDI actuarial 

deficit by 0.60 percent of taxable payroll, and the annual deficit for the 75th projection year 

(2084) by 0.68 percent of payroll. 

(2) Base the COLA on a Chain-Weighted CPI

The OASDI automatic cost of living adjustment that applies for benefit increases after the year 

of initial benefit eligibility is currently based on the increase in the Consumer Price Index for 

Urban Wage and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). The CPI-W was the only CPI series produced by 

the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) when the COLA was enacted into law in 1972. The CPI-W 

computes price increases for a broad market basket of goods and services from month to month, 

with revisions to the weights in the market basket every two years. Thus, monthly increases in 

the CPI-W represent a pure measure of increase in price levels without reflecting the effects of 

shifts that tend to occur across broad strata of different classes of goods and services, when their 

price levels rise at different rates. Historical data show that for all consumers in the economy in 

aggregate, the relative quantity of goods and services tends to increase for strata where prices 

have risen less, and relative quantity tends to decrease for strata where prices have risen more. 

The BLS has developed a chain-weighted formula to estimate the effects of the changes in the 

distribution of consumer purchases in real time, and to reflect this phenomenon in lower overall 

increases in the price level for the variable market basket. This formula has been implemented 

for the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) since 2000 and this alternative 

chain-weighted version has had the average effect of lowering measured price increases by about 

0.3 percentage point per year on average. 

This provision would apply a chain-weighted approach for the CPI-W in computing the COLA 

for 2012 and later. We estimate that this change would reduce the size of future COLAs by 0.3 

percentage point on average. This provision alone is estimated to reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.49 percent of taxable payroll, and the annual deficit for the 75th projection 

year (2084) by 0.70 percent of payroll. 

(3) Cover State and Local Government Employment

Currently, earnings of about 25 percent of State and local government employees are not covered 

under the OASDI program. This represents about 4 percent of the total U.S. workforce. This 
7

provision would cover earnings of all State and local government employees hired in 2020 and 

later under OASDI. This provision alone is estimated to reduce the long-range OASDI actuarial 

deficit by 0.16 percent of taxable payroll, and to increase the annual deficit for the 75th

projection year (2084) by 0.12 percent of payroll. 

(4) Apply OASDI Payroll Tax to Premiums for Employer Sponsored Group Health Insurance

Currently, premiums for employer sponsored group health insurance (ESI) are generally not 

included in earnings subject to the OASDI payroll tax. This provision would make the total 

premium for ESI, including the portion paid directly by the employer and the portion paid by the 

employee (through a section 125 plan or otherwise), included in earnings subject to the payroll 

tax for both employer and employee. This provision would eliminate the excise tax on ESI 

premiums that was enacted in the Affordable Care Act. For 2018, the maximum exclusion of 

ESI premium would be the premium at the 75th percentile of premiums for all ESI. The 

exclusion limit would then be reduced by 10 percent of the 2018 amount each year until no 

exclusion would be provided for 2028 and later. This provision alone is estimated to reduce the 

long-range OASDI actuarial deficit by 0.93 percent of taxable payroll, and the annual deficit for 

the 75th projection year (2084) by 1.06 percent of payroll. 

(5) Reduce the Top PIA Factor from 15 to 10 Percent

The primary insurance formula (PIA) produces the basic benefit level for all beneficiaries based 

on the career average indexed earnings (AIME) of the insured worker. For workers with career 

average earnings above about $57,000 on an annual basis, wage indexed to 2010 dollars, the 

applicable PIA factor for average-earnings replacement above this level is currently 15 percent. 

This provision would gradually reduce this factor by one third (to 10 percent without interaction 

with any other provision) for those becoming newly eligible for benefits over the 30-year period, 

between 2023 and 2052. This provision alone is estimated to reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.07 percent of taxable payroll, and the annual deficit for the 75th projection 

year (2084) by 0.20 percent of payroll.

(6) Enhance the Special Minimum Benefit for Long-Career Low Earners

The current-law special minimum benefit has little effect currently because the level of benefit 

provided has been indexed from one generation of new beneficiaries to the next by increases in 

the CPI. Starting in 2012, this provision would enhance the special minimum benefit to provide 

a PIA level at benefit eligibility equivalent to 133 percent of the 2009 Federal Aged Poverty 

threshold for individuals with earnings of at least 20 percent of the “old-law taxable maximum” 

in at least 30 years. (For 2009, the “old-law taxable maximum was $79,200, and so 20 percent of 

that level is $15,840. This amount is automatically indexed to the AWI increase under current 

law.) 

The minimum benefit (PIA) would be reduced for fewer than 30 of these qualifying years, 

reaching a zero amount for workers with less than 20 years of earnings at or above the 20 percent 

level. The target poverty level would be wage indexed from the 2009 aged individual poverty 

threshold to 2 years before the year of initial benefit eligibility. Up to 8 child-care credit years 
8

(not includable based on earnings) would be allowed to increase the total number of years. The 

required number of years with earnings at the 20 percent level, and the number of child-care 

years allowed, would be scaled (lowered based on years from ages 22 to 61 alive and not 

disabled) for workers becoming disabled or dying before attaining age 62. This provision alone 

is estimated to increase the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit by 0.09 percent of taxable 

payroll, and the annual deficit for the 75th projection year (2084) by 0.14 percent of payroll.

(7) Tax all Voluntary Salary Reduction Plans

Currently, employee contributions to several voluntary salary reduction plan arrangements are 

excluded from OASDI earnings subject to the payroll tax. These contributions include amounts 

spent through Section 125 (Cafeteria) plans and Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs). This 

provision would eliminate this exclusion, making such contributions subject to inclusion in 

covered earnings for potential payroll tax in the same manner as currently applies for 

contributions to 401(k) plans. This provision alone is estimated to reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.22 percent of taxable payroll, and the annual deficit for the 75th projection 

year (2084) by 0.13 percent of payroll.

(8) Index OASI Benefit Level to Longevity Increase

 

Under current law, the normal retirement age (NRA) will increase to 67 for those attaining 62 in 

2022 and later. No further change in program parameters to reflect continuing increases in 

longevity is currently scheduled in the law. This provision would index the PIA formula factors 

(currently 90, 32, and 15) for OASI benefits to longevity by reducing the factors starting in 2023 

to reflect changes in the ratio of (a) the period unisex life expectancy at 67 for 2018 to (b) the 

period unisex life expectancy at 67 for the 4th year before initial benefit eligibility. This change 

in life expectancy is projected to result in an average annual reduction in benefit levels of about 

0.3 percent per year (multiplying by 0.997 on average, each year) under the intermediate 

assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report. 

This reduction in PIA factors is closely equivalent to the projected effect of increasing the NRA 

itself after 2022 to maintain a constant ratio of (a) the life expectancy at NRA to (b) the quantity 

NRA-20 (the potential number of work years before NRA). Thus, this adjustment for longevity 

increase is sufficient to offset the effects of increasing longevity at older ages on the cost of the 

OASI program as a percent of taxable payroll. 

This provision would also apply for disabled workers at the time of conversion to retired worker 

status, at NRA, in proportion to the percentage of years not disabled from ages 22 to 61. This 

provision alone is estimated to reduce the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit by 0.48 percent of 

taxable payroll, and the annual deficit for the 75th projection year (2084) by 1.75 percent of 

payroll.

(9) Increase Benefits at Ages 81 to 85 and Thereafter 

This provision would provide for a gradual increase in benefits at ages 81 through 85. The 

increase would apply for all beneficiaries who are 85 or older at the beginning of 2012, or will 
9

reach age 85 at any time thereafter. For qualifying beneficiaries, the PIA upon which their 

benefit is based will be increased gradually by 5 percent of the average PIA amount for all 

retired workers in payment status at the end of 2011, or at the end of the year in which the 

beneficiary attains age 80, whichever is later. That dollar amount is indexed by the COLA for 

each beneficiary after it is initially determined. One fifth of the amount is added to the PIA for 

benefits payable in the year age 81 is attained, a second fifth is added to the PIA for benefits 

payable in the year age 82 is attained, and so on, until the entire amount (with COLAs) is added 

to the PIA for benefits payable in the year age 85 is attained. The increment for age 85 is 

retained for benefits payable at all higher ages. This provision alone is estimated to increase the 

long-range OASDI actuarial deficit by 0.13 percent of taxable payroll, and the annual deficit for 

the 75th projection year (2084) by 0.18 percent of payroll.

 

(10) Tax Reform for Business

This provision would alter the way business activity is taxed by the Federal government. A new 

value added tax (VAT) would be established and applied to the net product (value added) at each 

stage of production. The rate would be 3.0 percent for 2012 and 6.5 percent for 2013 and later. 

In addition, this provision would reduce corporate income tax from 35 to 27 percent starting in 

2012. We do not project that there will be any change in gross domestic product (GDP) as a 

result of this and other tax reform provisions. 

However, we do project that there will be a change in the distribution of income as a result of the

change in the incidence of tax. Based on the addition of a VAT, combined with the reduction in 

the corporate income tax rate, we estimate that the growth in the dollar level of wages will be 

reduced by a total of 4 percent in 2012 and 2013. Net self-employment income would be 

expected to be reduced similarly. This provision alone is estimated to increase the long-range 

OASDI actuarial deficit by 0.03 percent of taxable payroll, but to decrease the annual deficit for 

the 75th projection year (2084) by 0.16 percent of current law taxable payroll.

(11) Tax Reform for Individuals

The federal personal income tax structure would be broadened with a significant reduction in the 

top marginal rate starting in 2012. Personal income tax would apply with 2 brackets with 

marginal rates of 15 and 27 percent. The separation would be at an income level of about 

$51,000 for 2012, and this amount would be indexed by chain-weighted CPI thereafter. OASDI 

benefits would be taxable as regular income with no thresholds. Capital gains would be taxed as 

regular income. A non-refundable credit for low income tax filers age 65 and older would be 

provided. A non-refundable credit of 7.5 percent of the OASDI benefit would be provided. 

Revenue to OASDI and HI programs would thus be based on 7.5 and 19.5 percent marginal rates 

on all OASDI benefits, without regard to the non-refundable credit for those over age 65, and 

with benefits considered as last income, and thus at the marginal rate for each filer. Revenue 

would be split 60 percent for OASDI and 40 percent for HI. This provision alone is estimated to 

increase the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit by 0.01 percent of taxable payroll, and the 

annual deficit for the 75th projection year (2084) by 0.06 percent of current law taxable payroll.
10

Detailed Financial Results 

Summary Results by Provision

Table A provides estimates of the effects on the OASDI long-range actuarial balance for each 

provision of the proposed plan separately and on a combined basis. Summary estimates are also 

provided for the effect on the annual balance (the difference between income rate and the cost 

rate, expressed as a percent of present-law taxable payroll) for the 75th projection year, 2084. 

Benefit Illustrations

Tables B1 and B2 provide illustrative examples of the projected change in benefit levels under 

this proposed plan for beneficiaries retiring at age 65 in future years at various earnings levels. 

Table B1 compares the initial benefit levels under the proposed plan to both scheduled and 

payable present-law benefit levels. Table B1 illustrates that benefits projected for those retiring 

after 2037 are higher under the proposed plan than are projected to be payable under current law. 

Table B2 compares the change in benefit levels at ages 65, 75, 85, and 95 to scheduled benefits 

under present law. Table B2 shows that projected benefits under the proposed plan tend to 

decline in relation to present-law scheduled benefits between ages 65 and 75, and also between 

85 and 95 because of the provision to use the chain-weighted CPI for the COLA. Between 75 

and 85 the benefit under the proposed plan grows faster than the current law benefit because the 

increase for age 85 is more than the reduction in the COLA between 75 and 85. 

It must be noted that the illustrations in Tables B1 and B2 do not reflect the implications of the 

various tax changes in the overall Task Force plan. The effects of these tax provisions are 

complex and difficult to model at the individual level. For example, while the elimination of the 

exclusion of premiums for ESI and voluntary salary reduction plans would tend to increase 

average earnings levels on average, the provision to establish a VAT is expected to reduce the 

dollar level of earnings. The net effect on both earnings levels of hypothetical earners presented 

here and on the level of the average wage indexing series (AWI) is not entirely clear. The effects 

of these tax provisions are, however, reflected in the projections of aggregate cost and income 

for the OASDI program. 

Trust Fund Operations

Table 1 shows the annual cost and income rates, annual balances, and trust fund ratios (assets as 

percent of annual program cost) for OASDI assuming enactment of all of the provisions of the 

plan. This table also shows the change from present law in these cost rates, income rates, and 

balances. Included at the bottom of this table are summarized rates for the 75-year long-range 

period. 

Table 1 indicates that the OASDI program is projected to be solvent throughout the 75-year 

projection period assuming enactment of the plan provisions. After 2036, the trust fund ratio is 

projected to rise steadily, reaching 478 percent of the next year’s annual program cost at the end 

of the 75-year projection period. The actuarial deficit for the OASDI program over the 75-year 
11

projection period would be eliminated and replaced by a positive actuarial balance estimated at 

0.56 percent of taxable payroll.

Annual balances are projected to be small negative amounts starting in 2069, with current 

program cost exceeding current program tax revenue. However, as explained earlier, the interest 

earnings on the trust fund assets exceed the amount needed to maintain a stable trust fund ratio 

and the excess is more than adequate to augment current tax income for the payment of 

scheduled benefits under the Task Force plan. 

Program Transfers and Assets

Column 4 of Table 1a provides a projection of the asset level for the combined OASI and DI 

Trust Funds under the proposed plan, expressed in present value dollars discounted to January 1, 

2010. The table indicates that the plan includes no new specified transfers of general revenue to 

the trust funds. For purpose of comparison, the net OASDI Trust Fund assets, expressed in 

present value dollars, are also shown for a theoretical Social Security program where borrowing 

authority is assumed for the Trust Funds. Under current law, no such borrowing authority exists. 

Gross Domestic Product (GDP), expressed in present value dollars, is shown in column 5 for 

comparison with other values in the table. 

Effect of Specified Plan Provisions on the Federal Unified Budget

Table 1b shows the projected effect, in present value discounted dollars, on the Federal unified 

budget cash flows and balances assuming enactment of the provisions of the plan that we have 

specifically scored as having significant effects on the OASDI program actuarial status. Note 

that the specified “payroll tax holiday” for 2011, which would be fully financed from the general 

Fund of the Treasury, is not reflected here because there would be no net effect on the OASDI 

Trust Funds. Similarly, the effects on the on-budget from the tax-reform provisions and the plan 

provisions affecting health spending are not reflected in these estimates. Table 1b.n provides the 

estimated nominal dollar effect of enactment of the specified provisions of the plan on the annual 

unified budget balances for years 2010 through 2019. All values in these tables represent the 

amount of the change from the level that would be projected under current law that would be 

expected due to enactment of the specified provisions. 

The effect of the specified plan provisions on unified budget cash flow (column 3) is expected to 

be negative for years 2012 through 2017, largely due to the projected reduction in earnings levels 

in 2012 and 2013 as a result of the VAT. It is important to note that the revenue to the General 

Fund of the Treasury from the VAT, and changes in corporate and personal income tax (other 

than those directly affecting OASDI through revenue from taxation of benefits), are not reflected 

in these tables. Thus the unified budget effects are by no means a complete indication of the 

effects of the overall plan. 

The remaining specified provisions of the plan rapidly result in substantial positive net changes 

in unified budget cash flow after 2017. Column 4 of Table 1b indicates that the projected effect 

of implementing the specified plan provisions on the Federal debt held by the public is a large 

reduction starting in 2021. Column 5 provides the projected effect of specified plan provisions 
12

on the annual unified budget balances, including both the cash flow effect in column 3 and the 

additional interest on the accumulated debt indicated in column 4. It is important to note that 

these estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report and thus 

are not consistent with estimates made by the OMB or the CBO based on their assumptions. 

Annual Trust Fund Operations as a Percent of GDP

Table 1c provides annual cost, annual expenditures (on a payable basis), and annual tax income 

for the OASDI program expressed as a percentage of GDP. These values are shown for both 

present-law and assuming enactment of the Task Force plan. Showing the annual trust fund 

flows as a percent of GDP provides an additional perspective on these trust fund operations in 

relation to the total value of goods and services produced in the United States. The relationship 

between income and cost is similar when expressed as a percent of GDP to that when expressed 

as a percent of taxable payroll (see Table 1).

Effects on Trust Fund Assets and Unfunded Obligations

Table 1d provides estimates of the changes due to the Task Force plan in the level of projected 

trust fund assets under present law and, for years after trust fund exhaustion under present law, 

the level of unfunded obligations. All values in the table are expressed in present-value 

discounted dollars. For the 75-year long-range period as a whole, the present-law unfunded 

obligation of $5.4 trillion in present value is replaced with a positive trust fund balance of $2.2 

trillion in present value through the end of the period. This change is the combination of the 

following: 

 A $6.7 trillion increase in revenue (column 2), plus

 A $0.8 trillion reduction in cost (column 3).

As noted earlier, the relatively small reduction in aggregate cost under the specified plan 

provisions occurs because additional OASDI benefits from provisions that expand the payroll tax 

base substantially offset the direct reductions in OASDI benefits from modifications in the 

benefit formula and the COLA.

We hope these estimates will be helpful. Please let me know if we may provide further 

assistance.

Sincerely,

Stephen C. Goss

Chief Actuary

Enclosures 
Table A--Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of the 

Bipartisan Policy Center’s Debt Reduction Task Force Plan 

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

in 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

1) Increase contribution and benefit base (“taxable maximum”) by 

an additional 2 percent per year beginning in 2012 until taxable 

earnings are equal to 90 percent of covered earnings. Additional 

taxable earnings would be credited for the purpose of computing 

benefits ................................................................................................ 0.60 0.68 

2) Starting with the December 2012 cost-of-living adjustment 

(COLA), compute the COLA using a chain-weighted version of 

the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical 

workers (CPI-W). This new computation is estimated to result in 

an annual COLA that is 0.3 percentage point less, on average ............ 0.49 0.70 

3) Cover newly hired state and local government employees 

beginning in 2020 ................................................................................ 0.16 -0.12 

4) Phase out the income and payroll tax exclusion for employersponsored group health insurance (ESI) beginning in 2018. Set the 

exclusion at the 75th percentile of premium distribution in 2018, 

with amounts above that subject to tax. Reduce the exclusion level 

by 10 percent annually, with exclusion fully eliminated in 2028. 

Eliminate the excise tax on ESI ........................................................... 0.93 1.06 

5) Reduce the upper 15-percent PIA formula factor to 10 percent 

over a 30-year period from 2023 and through 2052. Affects OASI 

and DI benefit computations ................................................................ 0.07 0.20 

6) Reconfigure the special minimum benefit to ensure that an 

individual with at least 30 creditable years of earnings (equal to at 

least 20% of the “old law taxable maximum”) would receive a PIA 

of 133 percent of the Aged Federal poverty level, with the formula 

phased linearly from zero for workers with 19 creditable years to 

133 percent of poverty for those with 30 creditable years. Up to 8 

years with own child under the age of 6 could be used as creditable 

years, if not otherwise counted as a creditable year. Scale the 

creditable year requirements and number of child-care years for 

disabled workers and workers dying under age 62 based on the 

proportion of years from 22 through 61 alive and not disabled. 

This provision is effective for individuals newly eligible for 

benefits in 2012 and later. Wage-index the poverty level from 

2009 up to 2 years prior to benefit eligibility ...................................... -0.09 -0.14 

7) Tax all voluntary salary reduction plan contributions (such as 

Cafeteria 125 plans and FSAs) like 401(k)s for OASDI payroll tax 

purposes, effective 2012 ...................................................................... 0.22 0.13 
Table A--Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of the 

Bipartisan Policy Center’s Debt Reduction Task Force Plan 

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

in 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

8) For OASI beneficiaries becoming eligible for benefits in 2023 

and later, multiply the PIA factors by the ratio of life expectancy at 

67 for 2018 to the life expectancy at age 67 for the 4th year prior to 

the year of initial benefit eligibility. Unisex life expectancies, 

based on period life tables as computed by SSA's Office of the 

Chief Actuary, would be used in determining the ratio. Disability 

benefits are not affected by the proposal. Disabled worker 

beneficiaries, upon attaining normal retirement age, would be 

subject to a proportional reduction in benefits based on the 

proportion of years at ages 22 through 61 not disabled ....................... 0.48 1.75 

9) Provide an increase in the benefit level of any beneficiary who 

is 85 or older at the beginning of 2012 or who reaches their 85th 

birthday after the beginning of 2012. The beneficiary’s PIA would 

be increased based on an amount equal to the average retiredworker PIA at the end of 2011, or at the end of the year age 80 if 

later. The beneficiary’s PIA would be increased by 5 percent of 

this amount for those older than 85 at the beginning of 2012 and by 

5 percent of this amount at age 85 for others, phased in at 1 percent 

per year for ages 81-85 ........................................................................ -0.13 -0.18 

10) Tax Reform for Business: Establish a value added tax (VAT) 

of 3.0 percent for 2012 and 6.5 percent for 2013 and later. Lower 

the corporate income tax rate from 35 to 27 percent starting 2012 ..... -0.03 0.16 

11) Tax Reform for Individuals: For personal income tax, establish 

in 2012 a 2-bracket approach with marginal rates of 15 and 27 

percent separated at $51,000 (CPI indexed) for 2012 and later, with 

a non-refundable credit for low-income tax filers age 65 and older. 

Capital gains would be treated as regular income. All Social 

Security benefits would be taxed starting 2012 at the applicable 

marginal rate (15 or 27) less a non-refundable credit of 7.5 percent. 

Revenue to OASDHI would be based on the net marginal rates of 

7.5 and 19.5 percent, with 40 percent of revenue dedicated to HI ....... -0.01 -0.06 

Total for all provisions, including interaction .............. 2.48 3.64 

1

Under current law, the long-range OASDI actuarial balance is estimated at -1.92 percent of taxable payroll. 

2

Under current law, the estimated 75th year annual balance is -4.12 percent of taxable payroll. 

Notes: All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2010 OASDI Trustees Report. 

 Estimates of individual provisions appear on a stand-alone basis relative to current law, unless otherwise stated. 

Social Security Administration 

SSA/Office of the Chief Actuary 

November 17, 2010
Year 

Attain Reduced PIA Minimum

Age 65 (Wage Indexed (Constant COLA4 Longevity5 Formula6 Benefit7 Total Scheduled Payable

2010 Dollars) 2010 Dollars)

 

2010 648 648

2020 611 717 -0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.9 99 99

2030 579 758 -0.9 -1.7 0.0 0.0 -2.5 97 97

2040 578 852 -0.9 -5.0 0.0 0.0 -5.8 94 120

2050 580 959 -0.9 -8.0 0.0 0.0 -8.8 91 114

2060 580 1,074 -0.9 -10.6 0.0 0.0 -11.4 89 112

2070 580 1,200 -0.9 -13.0 0.0 0.0 -13.7 86 111

2080 580 1,341 -0.9 -15.1 0.0 0.0 -15.8 84 111

2010 848 848

2020 800 938 -0.9 0.0 0.0 22.2 21.2 121 121

2030 758 992 -0.9 -1.7 0.0 24.3 21.2 121 121

2040 756 1,115 -0.9 -5.0 0.0 28.7 21.2 121 155

2050 758 1,255 -0.9 -8.0 0.0 32.8 21.2 121 152

2060 759 1,404 -0.9 -10.6 0.0 36.8 21.2 121 153

2070 759 1,569 -0.9 -13.0 0.0 40.5 21.2 121 156

2080 758 1,754 -0.9 -15.1 0.0 44.0 21.2 121 160

2010 1,397 1,397

2020 1,318 1,546 -0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.9 99 99

2030 1,248 1,634 -0.9 -1.7 0.0 0.0 -2.5 97 97

2040 1,245 1,838 -0.9 -5.0 0.0 0.0 -5.8 94 120

2050 1,249 2,068 -0.9 -8.0 0.0 0.0 -8.8 91 114

2060 1,251 2,314 -0.9 -10.6 0.0 0.0 -11.4 89 112

2070 1,251 2,586 -0.9 -13.0 0.0 0.0 -13.7 86 111

2080 1,249 2,889 -0.9 -15.1 0.0 0.0 -15.8 84 111

2010 1,851 1,851

2020 1,747 2,048 -0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.9 99 99

2030 1,654 2,166 -0.9 -1.7 -0.4 0.0 -2.9 97 97

2040 1,651 2,435 -0.9 -5.0 -1.1 0.0 -6.9 93 119

2050 1,656 2,740 -0.9 -8.0 -1.9 0.0 -10.5 89 112

2060 1,658 3,067 -0.9 -10.6 -2.3 0.0 -13.4 87 109

2070 1,658 3,427 -0.9 -13.0 -2.3 0.0 -15.7 84 108

2080 1,656 3,829 -0.9 -15.1 -2.3 0.0 -17.8 82 108

2010 2,192 2,192

2020 2,126 2,493 -0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.9 99 99

2030 2,021 2,646 -0.9 -1.7 -1.3 0.0 -3.8 96 96

2040 2,016 2,974 -0.9 -5.0 -4.0 0.0 -9.6 90 115

2050 2,020 3,343 -0.9 -8.0 -6.6 0.0 -14.8 85 107

2060 2,021 3,738 -0.9 -10.6 -7.9 0.0 -18.4 82 103

2070 2,021 4,177 -0.9 -13.0 -7.9 0.0 -20.5 79 102

2080 2,019 4,668 -0.9 -15.1 -7.9 0.0 -22.5 78 102

1

 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2010.

2

 Changes for each category are relative to current law, individually, with the exception of the minimum benefit which reflects interaction 

with the other categories.

3

 After trust fund exhaustion under present law continuing taxes are expected to be enough to pay about three fourths of scheduled benefits.

4 Starting Dec 2012, compute the COLA using a chained CPI-W, producing 0.3 percentage point lower annual COLAs on average.

5

 Starting with those newly eligible in 2023, multiply by the ratio of life expectancy at 67 for 2018 to the life expectancy at age 67 for the 4th 

 year prior to the year of benefit eligibilty.

6 Reduce the 15% PIA Factors to 10% phased in 2023 through 2052.

7

 Increase the PIA to a level such that a worker with 30 years of earnings equal to at least 20% of the "old law" tax max would receive an adjusted

PIA equal to 133% of 2009 Federal Poverty level, wage-indexed after 2009 to 2 years prior to benefit eligibility. This provision would 

take full effect for all newly eligible workers in 2012. 

Notes: The hypothetical worker's earnings patterns were not altered to reflect effects on wages and earnings as a result of any changes to

tax provisions, including personal and corporate income tax, VAT, and taxing ESI premiums.

All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report.

Table B1. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Retiring (Stop Working) at age 65 

Bipartisan Policy Center's Debt Reduction Task Force Plan

Scheduled Benefit Level Percent Change at age 652

Present Law Scheduled Proposal Scheduled Benefit

Monthly Benefits3 Percent of Present Law:

November 17, 2010

(Percents)

Scaled Very Low Earner ($10,771 for 20101)

Scaled Low Earner ($19,388 for 20101

)

Steady Maximum Earner ($106,800 for 20101

)

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Scaled Medium Earner ($43,084 for 20101)

Scaled High Earner ($68,934 for 20101

)

(Percent change)
Year 

Attain

Age 65 Age 65 Age 75 Age 852 Age 95

2010

2020 99.1 96.3 103.7 100.7

2030 97.5 94.6 102.5 99.5

2040 94.2 91.5 99.3 96.5

2050 91.2 88.6 96.5 93.7

2060 88.6 86.1 94.0 91.3

2070 86.3 83.8 91.8 89.2

2080 84.2 81.7 89.9 87.3

2010

2020 121.2 117.7 122.0 118.5

2030 121.2 117.7 122.4 118.9

2040 121.2 117.7 122.3 118.8

2050 121.2 117.7 122.3 118.8

2060 121.2 117.7 122.3 118.8

2070 121.2 117.7 122.3 118.8

2080 121.2 117.7 122.3 118.8

2010

2020 99.1 96.3 98.2 95.4

2030 97.5 94.6 96.8 94.0

2040 94.2 91.4 93.7 91.0

2050 91.2 88.6 90.9 88.3

2060 88.6 86.1 88.4 85.9

2070 86.3 83.8 86.2 83.7

2080 84.2 81.7 84.2 81.8

2010

2020 99.1 96.3 97.1 94.3

2030 97.1 94.3 95.3 92.5

2040 93.1 90.4 91.5 88.8

2050 89.5 86.9 88.1 85.5

2060 86.6 84.1 85.3 82.9

2070 84.3 81.9 83.2 80.8

2080 82.2 79.9 81.2 78.9

2010

2020 99.1 96.3 96.4 93.6

2030 96.2 93.4 93.7 91.0

2040 90.4 87.8 88.3 85.8

2050 85.2 82.8 83.4 81.0

2060 81.6 79.3 80.0 77.7

2070 79.5 77.2 78.0 75.7

2080 77.5 75.3 76.1 74.0

1

 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2010.

2

 Beginning in 2012, increase the benefit at each age 81- 85 based on 1% of the average retired worker PIA in the prior year.

Note: Starting Dec 2012, compute the COLA using a chained CPI-W, producing 0.3 percentage point lower annual COLAs on average.

Other changes: Starting with those newly eligible in 2023, multiply by the ratio of life expectancy at 67 for 2018 to the life expectancy

 age 67 for the 4th year prior to the year of benefit eligibilty

Reduce the 15% PIA Factors to 10% phased in 2023 through 2052.

Increase the PIA to a level such that a worker with 30 years of earnings equal to at least 20% of the "old law" tax max would receive

an adjusted PIA equal to 133% of 2009 Federal Poverty level, wage-indexed after 2009 to 2 years prior to benefit eligibility.

This provision would take full effect for all newly eligible workers in 2012. 

The hypothetical worker's earnings patterns were not altered to reflect effects on wages and earnings as a result of any

changes to tax provisions, including personal and corporate income tax, VAT, and taxing ESI premiums.

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report.

Table B2. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Retiring (Stop Working) at age 65 

Bipartisan Policy Center's Debt Reduction Task Force Plan

Proposal Benefit as Percent of Present Law Scheduled

(Percents)

Steady Maximum Earner ($106,800 for 20101)

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

November 17, 2010

Scaled Very Low Earner ($10,771 for 2010 1)

Scaled Low Earner ($19,388 for 2010 1

)

Scaled Medium Earner ($43,084 for 20101

)

Scaled High Earner ($68,934 for 2010 1

)
Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2010 13.09 12.33 -0.76 355 0.00 0.00 0.00

2011 13.04 12.91 -0.12 353 0.00 0.00 0.00

2012 12.90 12.62 -0.29 349 0.06 -0.26 -0.32

2013 12.89 12.63 -0.26 341 0.07 -0.27 -0.34

2014 12.89 12.66 -0.23 335 0.03 -0.26 -0.29

2015 12.96 12.70 -0.26 329 -0.01 -0.23 -0.22

2016 13.04 12.75 -0.30 323 -0.06 -0.22 -0.15

2017 13.19 12.79 -0.40 317 -0.11 -0.20 -0.09

2018 13.38 12.96 -0.42 311 -0.16 -0.05 0.11

2019 13.61 13.14 -0.47 305 -0.22 0.12 0.34

2020 13.87 13.37 -0.49 299 -0.28 0.33 0.61

2021 14.12 13.61 -0.51 293 -0.33 0.54 0.87

2022 14.36 13.84 -0.53 288 -0.38 0.75 1.14

2023 14.60 14.07 -0.52 284 -0.43 0.97 1.40

2024 14.81 14.30 -0.51 280 -0.48 1.19 1.66

2025 15.02 14.54 -0.48 276 -0.52 1.40 1.92

2026 15.20 14.77 -0.43 273 -0.56 1.63 2.18

2027 15.36 15.01 -0.35 271 -0.59 1.85 2.44

2028 15.51 15.09 -0.42 270 -0.62 1.92 2.54

2029 15.64 15.17 -0.47 269 -0.65 1.99 2.63

2030 15.73 15.24 -0.50 268 -0.67 2.05 2.72

2031 15.82 15.31 -0.51 266 -0.69 2.11 2.80

2032 15.88 15.37 -0.51 265 -0.71 2.16 2.87

2033 15.94 15.44 -0.50 265 -0.72 2.22 2.94

2034 15.97 15.50 -0.47 264 -0.73 2.28 3.01

2035 15.99 15.56 -0.43 264 -0.73 2.34 3.07

2036 16.00 15.62 -0.38 264 -0.73 2.39 3.13

2037 16.01 15.68 -0.33 265 -0.73 2.45 3.18

2038 15.99 15.74 -0.25 267 -0.72 2.51 3.23

2039 15.97 15.79 -0.18 269 -0.71 2.56 3.28

2040 15.94 15.85 -0.10 271 -0.70 2.62 3.32

2041 15.92 15.90 -0.01 274 -0.68 2.68 3.36

2042 15.89 15.96 0.07 278 -0.66 2.73 3.39

2043 15.87 16.02 0.15 282 -0.64 2.79 3.43

2044 15.86 16.07 0.22 287 -0.62 2.85 3.47

2045 15.85 16.13 0.28 292 -0.59 2.90 3.50

2046 15.85 16.19 0.33 297 -0.56 2.96 3.53

2047 15.86 16.24 0.38 303 -0.54 3.02 3.56

2048 15.87 16.30 0.44 309 -0.51 3.08 3.59

2049 15.87 16.36 0.49 316 -0.48 3.13 3.62

2050 15.88 16.39 0.51 323 -0.45 3.16 3.62

2051 15.90 16.42 0.52 330 -0.42 3.19 3.61

2052 15.93 16.45 0.51 337 -0.39 3.22 3.61

2053 15.97 16.48 0.51 343 -0.36 3.25 3.61

2054 16.02 16.51 0.49 350 -0.33 3.28 3.61

2055 16.07 16.54 0.47 357 -0.29 3.31 3.60

2056 16.13 16.57 0.43 363 -0.26 3.33 3.59

2057 16.19 16.59 0.40 369 -0.22 3.36 3.58

2058 16.25 16.62 0.37 375 -0.19 3.38 3.57

2059 16.30 16.65 0.35 381 -0.16 3.41 3.57

2060 16.36 16.68 0.31 387 -0.12 3.43 3.55

2061 16.43 16.70 0.28 392 -0.08 3.46 3.54

2062 16.49 16.73 0.24 397 -0.04 3.49 3.53

2063 16.55 16.76 0.21 403 -0.01 3.51 3.52

2064 16.61 16.79 0.18 408 0.03 3.54 3.51

2065 16.68 16.82 0.14 412 0.06 3.56 3.50

2066 16.74 16.85 0.10 417 0.09 3.59 3.50

2067 16.81 16.87 0.06 421 0.13 3.62 3.49

2068 16.88 16.90 0.02 426 0.16 3.64 3.49

2069 16.95 16.93 -0.02 430 0.18 3.67 3.49

2070 17.02 16.96 -0.06 434 0.21 3.69 3.48

2071 17.09 16.99 -0.09 437 0.24 3.72 3.48

2072 17.15 17.02 -0.13 441 0.26 3.75 3.49

2073 17.22 17.05 -0.17 444 0.28 3.77 3.49

2074 17.29 17.08 -0.21 447 0.30 3.80 3.50

2075 17.35 17.11 -0.24 451 0.32 3.82 3.50

2076 17.41 17.14 -0.27 454 0.34 3.85 3.52

2077 17.47 17.17 -0.30 457 0.35 3.88 3.53

2078 17.53 17.19 -0.33 459 0.36 3.90 3.54

2079 17.58 17.22 -0.36 462 0.38 3.93 3.56

2080 17.63 17.25 -0.38 465 0.38 3.96 3.57

2081 17.69 17.28 -0.40 468 0.39 3.98 3.59

2082 17.74 17.31 -0.43 470 0.40 4.01 3.61

2083 17.79 17.34 -0.45 473 0.41 4.04 3.63

2084 17.84 17.37 -0.47 475 0.42 4.06 3.64

2085 17.89 17.40 -0.49 478 0.42 4.09 3.67

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

15.66% 16.22% 0.56% N/A -0.27% 2.21% 2.48%

1 Under present law the year of exhaustion is 2037

Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

Proposal

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll

Change in Present Law

Bipartisan Policy Center's Debt Reduction Task Force Plan

Year of 

Exhaustion1

Summarized Rates: OASDI

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report

November 17, 2010

Summarized Rates: OASDI

2010 - 2084

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration
Percentage

of Payroll

Annual

Amounts

Accumulated as of 

End of Year

Gross Domestic 

Product

Without General

Fund Transfers

With Plan General

Fund Transfers

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2010 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,500.1 14,440.7 2,500.1 2,500.1

2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,493.9 14,447.1 2,493.9 2,493.9

2012 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,478.7 14,629.9 2,495.8 2,495.8

2013 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,464.9 14,850.2 2,500.7 2,500.7

2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,452.6 15,008.0 2,504.4 2,504.4

2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,438.5 15,093.9 2,502.6 2,502.6

2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,422.4 15,113.0 2,495.2 2,495.2

2017 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,400.3 15,084.7 2,478.0 2,478.0

2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,377.4 14,993.3 2,448.8 2,448.8

2019 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,351.9 14,866.6 2,404.4 2,404.4

2020 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,325.3 14,744.5 2,344.3 2,344.3

2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,298.0 14,612.8 2,269.2 2,269.2

2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,270.4 14,470.7 2,180.2 2,180.2

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,243.3 14,322.0 2,078.2 2,078.2

2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,217.5 14,168.7 1,964.7 1,964.7

2025 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,193.5 14,006.1 1,840.6 1,840.6

2026 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,172.5 13,848.9 1,707.4 1,707.4

2027 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,155.5 13,695.6 1,566.5 1,566.5

2028 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,135.7 13,543.6 1,419.1 1,419.1

2029 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,113.5 13,388.7 1,266.6 1,266.6

2030 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,090.2 13,238.7 1,110.6 1,110.6

2031 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,066.5 13,096.4 951.9 951.9

2032 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,043.0 12,955.3 791.4 791.4

2033 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,020.2 12,814.6 629.9 629.9

2034 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,999.0 12,675.9 468.5 468.5

2035 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,979.9 12,539.7 308.0 308.0

2036 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,963.2 12,408.4 149.0 149.0

2037 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,949.4 12,278.7 -7.9 -7.9

2038 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,938.9 12,153.7 -162.2 -162.2

2039 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,932.1 12,027.7 -313.2 -313.2

2040 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,928.8 11,899.8 -460.7 -460.7

2041 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,929.1 11,774.2 -604.7 -604.7

2042 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,932.9 11,649.7 -745.2 -745.2

2043 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,939.9 11,526.1 -882.3 -882.3

2044 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,949.8 11,403.5 -1,016.3 -1,016.3

2045 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,962.0 11,281.3 -1,147.4 -1,147.4

2046 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,976.4 11,159.4 -1,275.9 -1,275.9

2047 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,992.5 11,036.6 -1,402.0 -1,402.0

2048 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,010.6 10,914.9 -1,525.6 -1,525.6

2049 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,030.5 10,794.6 -1,646.9 -1,646.9

2050 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,050.9 10,674.1 -1,766.0 -1,766.0

2051 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,071.2 10,553.6 -1,883.2 -1,883.2

2052 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,091.3 10,434.0 -1,998.8 -1,998.8

2053 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,110.8 10,314.8 -2,113.3 -2,113.3

2054 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,129.7 10,196.3 -2,226.7 -2,226.7

2055 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,147.2 10,078.9 -2,339.4 -2,339.4

2056 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,163.4 9,963.1 -2,451.4 -2,451.4

2057 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,178.2 9,849.3 -2,562.8 -2,562.8

2058 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,191.8 9,737.3 -2,673.5 -2,673.5

2059 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,204.4 9,627.1 -2,783.4 -2,783.4

2060 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,215.7 9,517.7 -2,892.6 -2,892.6

2061 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,225.7 9,409.2 -3,001.2 -3,001.2

2062 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,234.4 9,301.9 -3,109.2 -3,109.2

2063 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,241.9 9,196.0 -3,216.6 -3,216.6

2064 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,248.3 9,091.8 -3,323.4 -3,323.4

2065 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,253.5 8,988.7 -3,429.7 -3,429.7

2066 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,257.3 8,886.5 -3,535.7 -3,535.7

2067 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,259.9 8,785.3 -3,641.3 -3,641.3

2068 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,261.3 8,685.0 -3,746.7 -3,746.7

2069 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,261.5 8,585.5 -3,851.9 -3,851.9

2070 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,260.5 8,487.0 -3,956.9 -3,956.9

2071 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,258.3 8,388.8 -4,061.7 -4,061.7

2072 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,255.0 8,292.1 -4,166.3 -4,166.3

2073 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,250.7 8,196.2 -4,270.8 -4,270.8

2074 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,245.4 8,101.5 -4,375.1 -4,375.1

2075 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,239.3 8,007.1 -4,479.3 -4,479.3

2076 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,232.4 7,913.4 -4,583.2 -4,583.2

2077 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,224.8 7,820.3 -4,687.0 -4,687.0

2078 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,216.5 7,727.4 -4,790.5 -4,790.5

2079 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,207.6 7,635.8 -4,893.8 -4,893.8

2080 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,198.2 7,545.2 -4,996.8 -4,996.8

2081 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,188.3 7,455.5 -5,099.6 -5,099.6

2082 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,177.9 7,366.6 -5,202.1 -5,202.1

2083 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,167.1 7,278.4 -5,304.4 -5,304.4

2084 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,155.8 7,191.1 -5,406.3 -5,406.3

Total 2010-2084 0.0

Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report Office of the Chief Actuary

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9% Social Security Administration

November 17, 2010

1

 Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption that the law is modified to permit 

borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury.

Present Value in Billions as of 1-1-2010

Proposal

Total OASDI

Trust Fund

Assets 

at End of Year

Theoretical Social Security1

with Borrowing Authority

Net OASDI Trust Fund Assets at End of Year

Bipartisan Policy Center's Debt Reduction Task Force Plan

Table 1a - General Fund Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Assets, and Theoretical OASDI Assets

Calendar

Year

Proposal General Fund Transfers

Present Value in Billions as of 1-1-2010
Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) = (1)+(2) (4) (5)

2010 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2012 0.0 -17.2 -17.2 17.2 -17.2

2013 0.0 -18.6 -18.6 35.8 -19.4

2014 0.0 -16.0 -16.0 51.8 -17.7

2015 0.0 -12.3 -12.3 64.1 -14.8

2016 0.0 -8.7 -8.7 72.8 -11.8

2017 0.0 -4.9 -4.9 77.8 -8.6

2018 0.0 6.4 6.4 71.4 2.4

2019 0.0 18.9 18.9 52.5 15.2

2020 0.0 33.5 33.5 19.0 30.8

2021 0.0 47.8 47.8 -28.8 46.8

2022 0.0 61.4 61.4 -90.2 63.0

2023 0.0 74.8 74.8 -165.1 79.7

2024 0.0 87.7 87.7 -252.8 96.8

2025 0.0 100.1 100.1 -352.9 113.9

2026 0.0 112.2 112.2 -465.1 131.5

2027 0.0 123.9 123.9 -589.0 149.3

2028 0.0 127.5 127.5 -716.5 159.7

2029 0.0 130.3 130.3 -846.8 169.5

2030 0.0 132.8 132.8 -979.6 179.0

2031 0.0 135.0 135.0 -1,114.6 188.6

2032 0.0 137.0 137.0 -1,251.6 197.9

2033 0.0 138.7 138.7 -1,390.3 207.1

2034 0.0 140.2 140.2 -1,530.5 216.2

2035 0.0 141.4 141.4 -1,671.9 225.0

2036 0.0 142.3 142.3 -1,814.2 233.7

2037 0.0 143.1 143.1 -1,957.3 242.3

2038 0.0 143.8 143.8 -2,101.1 250.7

2039 0.0 144.2 144.2 -2,245.2 259.0

2040 0.0 144.3 144.3 -2,389.5 267.0

2041 0.0 144.3 144.3 -2,533.9 274.9

2042 0.0 144.2 144.2 -2,678.1 282.7

2043 0.0 144.1 144.1 -2,822.2 290.4

2044 0.0 143.9 143.9 -2,966.0 298.1

2045 0.0 143.4 143.4 -3,109.4 305.5

2046 0.0 142.8 142.8 -3,252.2 312.8

2047 0.0 142.3 142.3 -3,394.5 320.0

2048 0.0 141.7 141.7 -3,536.2 327.2

2049 0.0 141.2 141.2 -3,677.4 334.5

2050 0.0 139.4 139.4 -3,816.8 340.4

2051 0.0 137.6 137.6 -3,954.4 346.2

2052 0.0 135.8 135.8 -4,090.2 351.9

2053 0.0 134.0 134.0 -4,224.1 357.5

2054 0.0 132.3 132.3 -4,356.4 363.1

2055 0.0 130.2 130.2 -4,486.6 368.3

2056 0.0 128.2 128.2 -4,614.8 373.4

2057 0.0 126.2 126.2 -4,741.0 378.4

2058 0.0 124.3 124.3 -4,865.3 383.4

2059 0.0 122.5 122.5 -4,987.8 388.4

2060 0.0 120.6 120.6 -5,108.3 393.1

2061 0.0 118.6 118.6 -5,226.9 397.8

2062 0.0 116.7 116.7 -5,343.6 402.4

2063 0.0 114.9 114.9 -5,458.5 406.9

2064 0.0 113.2 113.2 -5,571.7 411.5

2065 0.0 111.5 111.5 -5,683.2 416.0

2066 0.0 109.8 109.8 -5,793.0 420.4

2067 0.0 108.3 108.3 -5,901.3 424.9

2068 0.0 106.8 106.8 -6,008.0 429.3

2069 0.0 105.3 105.3 -6,113.4 433.7

2070 0.0 104.0 104.0 -6,217.3 438.1

2071 0.0 102.6 102.6 -6,320.0 442.4

2072 0.0 101.4 101.4 -6,421.3 446.8

2073 0.0 100.2 100.2 -6,521.5 451.1

2074 0.0 99.1 99.1 -6,620.5 455.5

2075 0.0 98.0 98.0 -6,718.6 459.9

2076 0.0 97.1 97.1 -6,815.6 464.2

2077 0.0 96.1 96.1 -6,911.7 468.6

2078 0.0 95.2 95.2 -7,007.0 473.0

2079 0.0 94.4 94.4 -7,101.4 477.3

2080 0.0 93.6 93.6 -7,195.0 481.7

2081 0.0 92.9 92.9 -7,287.9 486.1

2082 0.0 92.1 92.1 -7,380.0 490.4

2083 0.0 91.4 91.4 -7,471.4 494.7

2084 0.0 90.7 90.7 -7,562.1 499.0

0.0 7,562.1 7,562.1

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9% Social Security Administration

November 17, 2010

Total 2010-84

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2010

Bipartisan Policy Center's Debt Reduction Task Force Plan

Table 1b - OASDI Changes & Unified Budget Implications of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1 (Present Value Dollars)

1

 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table.
Year

Specified General 

Fund Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) = (1)+(2) (4) (5)

2010 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2011 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2012 0.00 -19.3 -19.3 19.7 -19.7

2013 0.00 -21.9 -21.9 43.0 -23.3

2014 0.00 -19.7 -19.7 65.2 -22.2

2015 0.00 -15.9 -15.9 84.7 -19.5

2016 0.00 -11.8 -11.8 101.0 -16.3

2017 0.00 -7.0 -7.0 113.4 -12.4

2018 0.00 9.5 9.5 109.6 3.8

2019 0.00 29.9 29.9 84.8 24.8

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

November 17, 2010

Billions of Nominal Dollars

Bipartisan Policy Center's Debt Reduction Task Force Plan

Table 1b.n - OASDI Changes & Unified Budget Implications of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1 (Nominal Dollars)

1

 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table.
Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Tax

Income Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Tax

Income

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

2010 4.84 4.84 4.56 4.84 4.84 4.56

2011 4.80 4.80 4.75 4.80 4.80 4.75

2012 4.76 4.76 4.77 4.78 4.78 4.67

2013 4.75 4.75 4.78 4.78 4.78 4.68

2014 4.78 4.78 4.80 4.79 4.79 4.70

2015 4.83 4.83 4.81 4.82 4.82 4.73

2016 4.90 4.90 4.84 4.87 4.87 4.76

2017 4.98 4.98 4.86 4.94 4.94 4.79

2018 5.08 5.08 4.88 5.02 5.02 4.86

2019 5.20 5.20 4.89 5.11 5.11 4.94

2020 5.30 5.30 4.89 5.20 5.20 5.01

2021 5.41 5.41 4.89 5.28 5.28 5.09

2022 5.51 5.51 4.88 5.36 5.36 5.17

2023 5.60 5.60 4.88 5.44 5.44 5.24

2024 5.68 5.68 4.88 5.51 5.51 5.32

2025 5.77 5.77 4.87 5.57 5.57 5.40

2026 5.84 5.84 4.87 5.63 5.63 5.47

2027 5.90 5.90 4.87 5.69 5.69 5.55

2028 5.96 5.96 4.87 5.73 5.73 5.58

2029 6.01 6.01 4.87 5.77 5.77 5.60

2030 6.05 6.05 4.86 5.80 5.80 5.62

2031 6.08 6.08 4.86 5.83 5.83 5.64

2032 6.10 6.10 4.86 5.84 5.84 5.66

2033 6.12 6.12 4.86 5.86 5.86 5.67

2034 6.13 6.13 4.85 5.87 5.87 5.69

2035 6.14 6.14 4.85 5.87 5.87 5.71

2036 6.14 6.14 4.85 5.87 5.87 5.73

2037 6.13 6.06 4.84 5.86 5.86 5.74

2038 6.11 4.84 4.84 5.85 5.85 5.76

2039 6.10 4.84 4.84 5.84 5.84 5.77

2040 6.08 4.83 4.83 5.82 5.82 5.79

2041 6.05 4.83 4.83 5.81 5.81 5.80

2042 6.03 4.82 4.82 5.79 5.79 5.82

2043 6.01 4.81 4.81 5.78 5.78 5.83

2044 5.99 4.81 4.81 5.76 5.76 5.84

2045 5.97 4.80 4.80 5.75 5.75 5.86

2046 5.95 4.79 4.79 5.75 5.75 5.87

2047 5.94 4.79 4.79 5.74 5.74 5.88

2048 5.92 4.78 4.78 5.74 5.74 5.89

2049 5.91 4.78 4.78 5.73 5.73 5.91

2050 5.89 4.77 4.77 5.73 5.73 5.91

2051 5.88 4.76 4.76 5.73 5.73 5.91

2052 5.87 4.76 4.76 5.73 5.73 5.92

2053 5.87 4.75 4.75 5.74 5.74 5.92

2054 5.87 4.75 4.75 5.75 5.75 5.93

2055 5.87 4.74 4.74 5.76 5.76 5.93

2056 5.87 4.74 4.74 5.77 5.77 5.93

2057 5.87 4.73 4.73 5.79 5.79 5.93

2058 5.87 4.73 4.73 5.80 5.80 5.93

2059 5.87 4.72 4.72 5.81 5.81 5.93

2060 5.87 4.71 4.71 5.83 5.83 5.94

2061 5.87 4.71 4.71 5.84 5.84 5.94

2062 5.87 4.70 4.70 5.85 5.85 5.94

2063 5.87 4.70 4.70 5.87 5.87 5.94

2064 5.87 4.69 4.69 5.88 5.88 5.94

2065 5.88 4.69 4.69 5.90 5.90 5.95

2066 5.88 4.68 4.68 5.91 5.91 5.95

2067 5.88 4.67 4.67 5.93 5.93 5.95

2068 5.89 4.67 4.67 5.94 5.94 5.95

2069 5.89 4.66 4.66 5.96 5.96 5.95

2070 5.90 4.66 4.66 5.97 5.97 5.96

2071 5.91 4.65 4.65 5.99 5.99 5.96

2072 5.92 4.65 4.65 6.01 6.01 5.96

2073 5.92 4.64 4.64 6.02 6.02 5.96

2074 5.93 4.64 4.64 6.04 6.04 5.97

2075 5.94 4.63 4.63 6.05 6.05 5.97

2076 5.95 4.63 4.63 6.07 6.07 5.97

2077 5.96 4.62 4.62 6.08 6.08 5.97

2078 5.97 4.62 4.62 6.09 6.09 5.98

2079 5.97 4.62 4.62 6.11 6.11 5.98

2080 5.98 4.61 4.61 6.12 6.12 5.98

2081 5.99 4.61 4.61 6.13 6.13 5.99

2082 6.00 4.61 4.61 6.14 6.14 5.99

2083 6.01 4.60 4.60 6.15 6.15 6.00

2084 6.02 4.60 4.60 6.17 6.17 6.00

Bipartisan Policy Center's Debt Reduction Task Force Plan

Table 1c - Present Law and Proposal Cost, Expenditures, and Income: As Percent of Gross Domestic Product

November 17, 2010

Social Security Administration

Present Law OASDI Proposal OASDI

Calendar

Year

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary
Year

Present Law OASDI

Trust Fund Assets /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Total Change

Through

End of Year

Proposal OASDI

Trust Fund Assets /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) = cumulative sum(4) (6) = (1)+(5)

2010 2,500.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,500.1

2011 2,493.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,493.9

2012 2,495.8 -13.8 3.4 -17.2 -17.2 2,478.7

2013 2,500.7 -15.0 3.7 -18.6 -35.8 2,464.9

2014 2,504.4 -14.3 1.7 -16.0 -51.8 2,452.6

2015 2,502.6 -13.1 -0.8 -12.3 -64.1 2,438.5

2016 2,495.2 -12.2 -3.5 -8.7 -72.8 2,422.4

2017 2,478.0 -11.2 -6.2 -4.9 -77.8 2,400.3

2018 2,448.8 -2.9 -9.3 6.4 -71.4 2,377.4

2019 2,404.4 6.5 -12.4 18.9 -52.5 2,351.9

2020 2,344.3 18.1 -15.4 33.5 -19.0 2,325.3

2021 2,269.2 29.6 -18.2 47.8 28.8 2,298.0

2022 2,180.2 40.7 -20.7 61.4 90.2 2,270.4

2023 2,078.2 51.8 -23.0 74.8 165.1 2,243.3

2024 1,964.7 62.6 -25.1 87.7 252.8 2,217.5

2025 1,840.6 73.1 -27.0 100.1 352.9 2,193.5

2026 1,707.4 83.6 -28.6 112.2 465.1 2,172.5

2027 1,566.5 93.9 -30.0 123.9 589.0 2,155.5

2028 1,419.1 96.4 -31.1 127.5 716.5 2,135.7

2029 1,266.6 98.2 -32.1 130.3 846.8 2,113.5

2030 1,110.6 100.0 -32.8 132.8 979.6 2,090.2

2031 951.9 101.7 -33.3 135.0 1,114.6 2,066.5

2032 791.4 103.3 -33.7 137.0 1,251.6 2,043.0

2033 629.9 104.8 -33.9 138.7 1,390.3 2,020.2

2034 468.5 106.3 -33.9 140.2 1,530.5 1,999.0

2035 308.0 107.6 -33.7 141.4 1,671.9 1,979.9

2036 149.0 109.0 -33.3 142.3 1,814.2 1,963.2

2037 -7.9 110.3 -32.8 143.1 1,957.3 1,949.4

2038 -162.2 111.6 -32.2 143.8 2,101.1 1,938.9

2039 -313.2 112.8 -31.4 144.2 2,245.2 1,932.1

2040 -460.7 113.9 -30.4 144.3 2,389.5 1,928.8

2041 -604.7 115.1 -29.3 144.3 2,533.9 1,929.1

2042 -745.2 116.1 -28.1 144.2 2,678.1 1,932.9

2043 -882.3 117.2 -26.9 144.1 2,822.2 1,939.9

2044 -1,016.3 118.2 -25.7 143.9 2,966.0 1,949.8

2045 -1,147.4 119.1 -24.3 143.4 3,109.4 1,962.0

2046 -1,275.9 120.0 -22.8 142.8 3,252.2 1,976.4

2047 -1,402.0 120.8 -21.5 142.3 3,394.5 1,992.5

2048 -1,525.6 121.6 -20.1 141.7 3,536.2 2,010.6

2049 -1,646.9 122.3 -18.9 141.2 3,677.4 2,030.5

2050 -1,766.0 121.9 -17.5 139.4 3,816.8 2,050.9

2051 -1,883.2 121.5 -16.0 137.6 3,954.4 2,071.2

2052 -1,998.8 121.1 -14.7 135.8 4,090.2 2,091.3

2053 -2,113.3 120.6 -13.3 134.0 4,224.1 2,110.8

2054 -2,226.7 120.2 -12.1 132.3 4,356.4 2,129.7

2055 -2,339.4 119.6 -10.7 130.2 4,486.6 2,147.2

2056 -2,451.4 118.9 -9.2 128.2 4,614.8 2,163.4

2057 -2,562.8 118.3 -7.9 126.2 4,741.0 2,178.2

2058 -2,673.5 117.7 -6.6 124.3 4,865.3 2,191.8

2059 -2,783.4 117.1 -5.4 122.5 4,987.8 2,204.4

2060 -2,892.6 116.5 -4.1 120.6 5,108.3 2,215.7

2061 -3,001.2 115.9 -2.7 118.6 5,226.9 2,225.7

2062 -3,109.2 115.3 -1.4 116.7 5,343.6 2,234.4

2063 -3,216.6 114.6 -0.3 114.9 5,458.5 2,241.9

2064 -3,323.4 114.0 0.8 113.2 5,571.7 2,248.3

2065 -3,429.7 113.4 1.9 111.5 5,683.2 2,253.5

2066 -3,535.7 112.8 2.9 109.8 5,793.0 2,257.3

2067 -3,641.3 112.1 3.9 108.3 5,901.3 2,259.9

2068 -3,746.7 111.5 4.8 106.8 6,008.0 2,261.3

2069 -3,851.9 110.9 5.5 105.3 6,113.4 2,261.5

2070 -3,956.9 110.2 6.3 104.0 6,217.3 2,260.5

2071 -4,061.7 109.6 7.0 102.6 6,320.0 2,258.3

2072 -4,166.3 108.9 7.6 101.4 6,421.3 2,255.0

2073 -4,270.8 108.3 8.1 100.2 6,521.5 2,250.7

2074 -4,375.1 107.6 8.6 99.1 6,620.5 2,245.4

2075 -4,479.3 107.0 9.0 98.0 6,718.6 2,239.3

2076 -4,583.2 106.3 9.3 97.1 6,815.6 2,232.4

2077 -4,687.0 105.7 9.5 96.1 6,911.7 2,224.8

2078 -4,790.5 105.0 9.8 95.2 7,007.0 2,216.5

2079 -4,893.8 104.4 10.0 94.4 7,101.4 2,207.6

2080 -4,996.8 103.7 10.1 93.6 7,195.0 2,198.2

2081 -5,099.6 103.0 10.2 92.9 7,287.9 2,188.3

2082 -5,202.1 102.4 10.2 92.1 7,380.0 2,177.9

2083 -5,304.4 101.7 10.3 91.4 7,471.4 2,167.1

2084 -5,406.3 101.0 10.4 90.7 7,562.1 2,155.8

Total 2010-2084 6,742.7 -819.4 7,562.1

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2010 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%. November 17, 2010

(Billions of Dollars, Present Value on 1-1-2010)

Table 1d - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Assets / Unfunded Obligation

Bipartisan Policy Center's Debt Reduction Task Force Plan