SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE, MD 21235-0001

SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

April 5, 2017 

The Honorable John Larson 

United States House of Representatives

Washington, D.C. 20515 

Dear Representative Larson:

I am writing in response to your request for estimates of the financial effects on Social Security 

of H.R. 1902, the Social Security 2100 Act, which you introduced today. The estimates provided 

here reflect the intermediate assumptions of the 2016 Trustees Report. This Bill (hereafter 

referred to as the proposal) includes eight provisions with direct effects on the Social Security 

Trust Funds. We have enjoyed working closely with Scott Stephanou and Sylvia Lee of your 

staff in developing this proposal to meet your goals. The estimates and analysis provided here 

reflect the combined effort of many in the Office of the Chief Actuary, but most particularly 

Karen Glenn, Christopher Chaplain, Daniel Nickerson, Kyle Burkhalter, Michael Clingman, 

Anna Kirjusina, Katie Sutton, and Tiffany Bosley. 

The enclosed tables provide estimates of the effects of the eight provisions on the cost, income, 

and combined trust fund reserves for the Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) 

program, as well as estimated effects on retired worker benefit levels for selected hypothetical 

workers and effects on payroll tax levels. In addition, tables 1b and 1b.n provide estimates of the 

federal budget implications of these eight provisions with direct effects on the OASDI program. 

Assuming enactment of the proposal, we estimate that the combined Social Security Trust Fund 

would be fully solvent (able to pay all scheduled benefits in full on a timely basis) throughout the 

75-year projection period, under the intermediate assumptions of the 2016 Trustees Report.

(Note that section 204 of this proposal would combine the currently separate operations and

reserves of the OASI and DI Trust Funds into a single Social Security Trust Fund.) In addition,

under this proposal the OASDI program would meet the further conditions for sustainable

solvency, because projected combined trust fund reserves would be growing as a percentage of

the annual cost of the program at the end of the long-range period.

The proposal includes eight provisions with direct effects on the OASDI program. The following 

list briefly identifies each provision of the proposal: 

Section 101. Increase the first PIA formula factor from 90 percent to 93 percent for all 

benefits payable for months of eligibility January 2018 and later, including benefits for those 

becoming newly eligible both before and after January 2018. 
Page 2 – The Honorable John Larson

Section 102. Use the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E) increase rather than the 

Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increase to 

calculate the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), effective for December 2017 and later 

COLAs. We assume this change would increase the COLA by an average of 0.2 percentage 

point per year.

Section 103. Increase the special minimum PIA, beginning for workers who become newly 

eligible for retirement or disability benefits or die in 2018 or later. For workers becoming 

newly eligible or dying in 2018, the minimum initial PIA for workers with 30 or more years 

of coverage (YOCs) is 125 percent of the annual poverty guideline for a single individual 

published by the Department of Health and Human Services for 2017, divided by 12. For 

workers becoming newly eligible or dying after 2018, the minimum initial PIA increases by 

the growth in the national average wage index (AWI).

Section 104. Replace the current-law thresholds for federal income taxation of OASDI 

benefits with a single set of thresholds at $50,000 for single filers and $100,000 for joint filers

for taxation of up to 85 percent of OASDI benefits, effective for tax year 2018. These 

thresholds would be fixed and not indexed to price inflation or average wage increase. The 

portion of revenue from taxation of OASDI benefits that would be allocated to the HI Trust 

Fund will be at the same level as if the current-law computation (in the absence of this 

provision) were applied. The net amount of revenue from taxing OASDI benefits, after the 

allocation to HI, would be allocated to the combined Social Security Trust Fund.

Section 201 and Section 202. Apply the combined OASDI payroll tax rate on covered earnings 

above $400,000 paid in 2018 and later. Tax all covered earnings once the current-law taxable 

maximum exceeds $400,000. Credit the additional earnings that are taxed for benefit purposes 

by: (a) calculating a second average indexed monthly earnings (“AIME+”) reflecting only 

additional earnings taxed above the current-law taxable maximum, (b) applying a 2-percent 

factor on this newly computed “AIME+” to develop a second component of the PIA, and (c) 

adding this second component to the current-law PIA.

Section 203. Increase the combined OASDI payroll tax rate to 14.8 percent, fully effective for 

2042 and later. The combined rate is increased by 0.1 percentage point each year starting in 

2019, reaching the ultimate 14.8 percent rate for 2042 and later.

Section 204. Beginning in 2018, establish a new Social Security Trust Fund by combining the 

reserves of the separate OASI and DI Trust Funds and managing all future financial 

operations of the program on a combined basis.

The balance of this letter provides a summary of the effects of the eight provisions on the 

actuarial status of the OASDI program, our understanding of the specifications and intent of each 

of the eight provisions, and descriptions of our detailed financial estimates for trust fund 

operations, benefit levels, and implications for the federal budget. See the “Specification for 

Provisions of the Proposal” section of this letter for a more detailed description of these eight 

provisions.
Page 3 – The Honorable John Larson

Summary of Effects of the Proposal on OASDI Actuarial Status

Figure 1 illustrates the projected OASDI Trust Fund ratio through 2090 under current law and 

assuming enactment of the proposal. The trust fund ratio is defined as the combined Social 

Security Trust Fund reserves expressed as a percent of annual program cost. Assuming 

enactment of the proposal, the combined Social Security Trust Fund would be fully solvent 

throughout the 75-year projection period, under the intermediate assumptions of the 2016 

Trustees Report. In addition, because the projected trust fund ratio is increasing at the end of the 

period, the proposal meets the conditions for sustainable solvency.

Note: Trust Fund Ratio for a given year is the ratio of reserves in the combined Social Security Trust Fund at the 

beginning of the year to the cost of the program for the year.

Under current law, 79 percent of scheduled benefits are projected to be payable on a timely basis 

in 2034 after depletion of the combined trust fund reserves, with the percentage payable 

declining to 74 percent for 2090. Under the proposal, the OASDI program would be solvent 

throughout the 75-year projection period, and would have the ability to pay 100 percent of 

scheduled benefits on a timely basis for the foreseeable future.

Enactment of the eight provisions of this proposal would change the long-range OASDI actuarial 

deficit from 2.66 percent of taxable payroll under current law to a positive actuarial balance of 

0.32 percent of payroll under the proposal.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2016 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Trust Fund Ratio

Figure 1. Current Law and Proposal OASDI Trust Fund Reserves as Percent of 

Annual Cost: 2016 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Current Law Trust Fund Ratio

Proposal
Page 4 – The Honorable John Larson

Figure 2 illustrates annual projected levels of cost, expenditures, and non-interest income as a 

percent of the current-law taxable payroll. The projected level of cost reflects the full cost of 

scheduled benefits under both current law and the proposal. Under the proposal, projected 

expenditures equal the full cost of scheduled benefits throughout the long-range period.

OASDI program annual cost under the proposal is higher than under current law, starting in 

2018. This difference between proposal and current-law cost increases from 0.2 percent of 

current-law payroll for 2018 to 0.8 percent of current-law payroll for 2040, and thereafter 

increases more gradually, reaching 1.0 percent of current-law payroll for 2090. Beginning in 

2018, non-interest income under the proposal is projected to be higher than under current law. 

This difference between proposal and current-law income increases from 0.6 percent of currentlaw payroll for 2018 to 4.9 percent of current-law payroll for 2050, and thereafter increases more

gradually, reaching 5.1 percent of current-law payroll for 2090. For 2018 and later, the proposal 

improves the annual balance (non-interest income minus program cost).

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

2016 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Percent of Current-Law Taxable Payroll

Figure 2. Proposal and Current Law Cost, Expenditures, and Non-Interest Income 

as Percent of Taxable Payroll: 2016 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Current Law Cost

Current Law Non-Interest Income

Current Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Non-Interest Income

Proposal Expenditures
Page 5 – The Honorable John Larson

It is also useful to consider the projected cost, expenditures, and income for the OASDI program 

expressed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Figure 3 illustrates these levels 

under both current law and the proposal.

Specification for Provisions of the Proposal

Section 101. Increase the first PIA factor to 93 percent for all beneficiaries beginning in

2018.

This provision increases the first factor in the PIA formula from 90 to 93 percent for all benefits 

payable for months of eligibility January 2018 and later, including benefits for those becoming 

newly eligible both before and after January 2018.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.24 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2090) by 0.26 percent of payroll.

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

2016 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Percent of GDP

Figure 3. Proposal and Current Law Cost, Expenditures, and Non-Interest Income 

as Percent of GDP: 2016 TR Intermediate Assumptions

Current Law Cost

Current Law Non-Interest Income

Current Law Expenditures

Proposal Cost

Proposal Non-Interest Income

Proposal Expenditures
Page 6 – The Honorable John Larson

Section 102. Use the CPI-E increase rather than the CPI-W increase to calculate the COLA, 

effective for December 2017 and later COLAs.

Under current law, the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) applied to Social Security 

benefits is calculated using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical 

Workers (CPI-W). We estimate that using the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E)

increase rather than the CPI-W increase in each year beginning with the December 2017 COLA 

would increase the effective COLA by 0.2 percentage points per year on average.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.39 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2090) by 0.52 percent of payroll.

Section 103. Increase the special minimum PIA for workers who become newly eligible for 

retirement or disability benefits or die in 2018 or later.

Under this provision, the minimum initial PIA for workers becoming newly eligible or dying in 

2018 with 30 or more years of coverage (YOCs) would be 125 percent of the annual poverty 

guideline for a single individual published by the Department of Health and Human Services for 

2017, divided by 12. For those with less than 30 YOCs, the minimum PIA per YOC in excess of 

10 YOCs is the minimum PIA for workers with 30 or more YOCs, divided by 20. Any year in 

which a worker earns 4 quarters of coverage is determined to be a YOC. For workers becoming 

newly eligible or dying after 2018, the initial PIA per YOC in excess of 10 YOCs is indexed by 

growth in the national average wage index (AWI) to determine the minimum PIA applicable for 

the year of initial eligibility. After the year of initial eligibility, the minimum benefit is increased 

by the COLA for each cohort. The 30 and 10 YOC levels apply for all workers, including those 

who die or become disabled under age 62.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.13 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2090) by 0.19 percent of payroll.

Section 104. Replace the current-law thresholds for federal income taxation of OASDI 

benefits with a single set of thresholds at $50,000 for single filers and $100,000 for joint 

filers, for taxation of up to 85 percent of OASDI benefits, effective for tax years 2018 and 

later.

Under current law, single tax filers with combined “income” (approximately equal to adjusted 

gross income plus non-taxable interest income and one-half of their Social Security benefit) 

greater than $25,000 may have to pay income tax on up to 50 percent of their Social Security 

benefits. If combined “income” exceeds $34,000, up to 85 percent of benefits may be taxable.

The income tax revenue for taxing up to 50 percent of Social Security benefits is credited to the 

OASI and DI Trust Funds. The additional income tax revenue derived from taxing benefits in 

excess of 50 percent, up to 85 percent, is credited to the Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund. The 

process is similar for joint tax filers, with $32,000 and $44,000 thresholds applying for possible 

taxation of up to 50 percent or 85 percent of the Social Security benefits, respectively. All 

threshold levels are fixed amounts and not indexed to price inflation or average wage increase.
Page 7 – The Honorable John Larson

Under the proposal, both sets of the current-law thresholds would be replaced with a single set of 

thresholds, $50,000 and $100,000 for single and joint filers, respectively, for taxing up to 85 

percent of OASDI benefits , beginning for tax year 2018. These new thresholds would be

unchanged for tax years after 2018. The portion of revenue from taxation of OASDI benefits that 

would be allocated to the HI Trust Fund would be at the same level as if the current-law 

computation (in the absence of this provision) were applied. The net amount of revenue from 

taxing OASDI benefits, after the allocation to HI, would be allocated to the combined Social 

Security Trust Fund.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.19 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2090) by 0.01 percent of payroll.

Section 201 and Section 202. Apply OASDI payroll tax rate on covered earnings above 

$400,000 paid in 2018 and later. Reflect additional earnings subject to tax in computing the 

PIA.

These provisions apply the OASDI payroll tax rate to covered earnings above $400,000 paid in 

2018 and later. The $400,000 level is a fixed amount after 2018 and not indexed to price 

inflation or average wage increase. All covered earnings would be taxed once the current-law 

taxable maximum exceeds $400,000, which is projected to occur in 2047. Any covered earnings 

above the higher of $400,000 or the current-law taxable maximum in a given year would be 

counted as “excess wages” and would be credited for benefit purposes by:

a. Calculating a second average indexed monthly earnings (“AIME+”) reflecting only 

additional earnings taxed,

b. Applying a 2-percent PIA factor to this newly computed “AIME+” to develop a second 

component of the PIA, and

c. Adding this second component to the current-law PIA.

We estimate that enactment of these two provisions alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 1.88 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2090) by 2.33 percent of payroll.

Section 203. Increase the OASDI payroll tax rate to 14.8 percent, fully effective for 2042 and 

later. 

The increase in the OASDI payroll tax rate is phased in by increasing the payroll tax rate by 0.05 

percentage point for employers and 0.05 percentage point for employees (0.10 percentage point 

total), every year from 2019 through 2042. For years 2042 and later, the OASDI payroll tax rate 

is 7.4 percent for employers and 7.4 percent for employees (14.8 percent total), up from 6.2 

percent each (12.4 percent total) under current law. 

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 1.78 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 

75th projection year (2090) by 2.38 percent of payroll.
Page 8 – The Honorable John Larson

Section 204. Combine the separate OASI and DI Trust Funds effective in 2018.

Beginning in 2018, establish a new Social Security Trust Fund by combining the reserves of the 

separate OASI and DI Trust Funds and managing all future financial operations of the program 

on a combined basis. This provision alone would not change scheduled benefits or income in the 

law.

Enactment of this provision alone would have no effect on the long-range OASDI annual balance 

and the annual deficit for the 75th projection year (2090).

Detailed Financial Results for the Provisions of the Proposal

Summary Results by Provision

Table A provides estimates of the effects on the OASDI long-range actuarial balance of the eight 

provisions of the proposal separately and on a combined basis. The table also includes estimates 

of the effect of the provisions on the annual balance (the difference between income rate and the 

cost rate, expressed as a percent of current-law taxable payroll) for the 75th projection year, 2090. 

Interaction among individual provisions is reflected only in the total estimates for the combined 

provisions.

Benefit Illustrations

Tables B1 and B2 provide illustrative examples of the projected change in benefit levels under 

the provisions of the proposal for beneficiaries retiring and starting benefit receipt at age 65 in 

future years at six selected earnings levels, with selected numbers of years of work. The 

“Maximum-AIME Steady Earner” is assumed to have earnings at ages 22 through 64 that equal 

the current-law taxable maximum level (equivalent to $118,500 for 2016) and the “Twice 

Maximum-AIME Steady Earner” is assumed to have earnings at ages 22 through 64 that equal 

twice the current-law taxable maximum level (equivalent to $237,000 for 2016). As a result, the 

provision to tax and credit earnings above the current-law taxable maximum affects only the 

“Twice Maximum-AIME Steady Earner” benefit level. Table B3 provides additional important 

information on characteristics of retired workers represented by these illustrations for the year 

2007.

The first several columns of Table B1 compare the initial scheduled benefit levels, assuming 

retirement at age 65 under the provisions of the proposal, to scheduled current-law benefit levels. 

All scheduled benefit amounts under the proposal are higher than those scheduled in current law, 

especially for the very low and low hypothetical earners with at least 30 years of earnings (due 

largely to the minimum benefit provision). The final three columns of this table show the level of 

scheduled benefits under the proposal as a percentage of current-law scheduled benefits, the level 

of scheduled benefits under the proposal as a percentage of current-law payable benefits, and the 

level of payable benefits under the proposal as a percentage of current-law payable benefits, 

respectively.
Page 9 – The Honorable John Larson

Table B2 compares the change in scheduled benefit levels at ages 65, 75, 85, and 95 under the 

proposal to scheduled benefits under current law, assuming retirement and start of benefit receipt 

at age 65. Table B2 shows that projected scheduled benefits under the provisions of the proposal 

increase in relation to current-law scheduled benefits between ages 65 and 95, because of the 

change in computing the COLA.

The hypothetical workers represented in these tables reflect average career-earnings patterns of 

workers who started receiving retirement benefits under the Social Security program in recent 

years. The tables subdivide workers with very low, low, and medium career-average earnings 

levels by their numbers of years of non-zero earnings.

Table B3 provides information helpful in interpreting the benefit illustrations in Tables B1 and 

B2. Percentages in Table B3 are based on tabulations from a 10-percent sample of newly-entitled 

retired workers in 2007. Table B3 displays the percentages of these newly-entitled retired

workers in 2007 that are closest to each of the illustrative examples and are:

1) “Dually Entitled”, meaning they received a higher spouse or widow(er) benefit based on 

the career earnings of their husband or wife,

2) “WEP” (Windfall Elimination Provision), meaning that they received a reduced benefit 

due to having a pension based on earnings that were not covered under the OASDI 

program (primarily certain government workers), and they had less than 30 years of 

substantial earnings that were taxable under the OASDI program,

3) “Foreign Born”, meaning that they entered the Social Security coverage area after birth 

(and generally after entering working ages), and

4) “All Others”, meaning they had none of the three characteristics listed above.

The extent to which retired-worker beneficiaries represented by each of the illustrative examples 

have any of the characteristics listed above (dually entitled, WEP, foreign born) is important 

because such individuals are less dependent on the OASDI benefit that relates to their own 

career-average earnings level. It should be noted that the distributions shown in Table B3 for 

retirees in 2007 will be changing somewhat for beneficiaries becoming entitled as retired-worker 

beneficiaries in the future.

Payroll Tax Effects

Table T compares the scheduled payroll tax levels under the provisions of the proposal to 

scheduled current-law payroll tax levels. Under the proposal, the currently scheduled payroll tax 

rate of 12.4 percent would be gradually increased to 14.8 percent for 2042 and later. At that 

point, the amount of payroll tax paid by workers earning at the level of the current-law taxable 

maximum amount or below would be increased by 19.4 percent. Because the payroll tax would 

additionally apply to annual earnings in excess of $400,000 starting in 2018, payroll tax liability 

would increase by more than 19.4 percent for some workers earning over the higher of $400,000

and the current-law taxable maximum amount even before 2042. For example, Table T shows 

that the worker with earnings at twice the current-law taxable maximum in 2030 would have 

payroll tax liability increased by 22.5 percent. By 2050, workers with earnings at twice the 

current-law taxable maximum would have payroll tax liability increased by 138.7 percent.
Page 10 – The Honorable John Larson

Detailed Tables Containing Annual and Summary Projections

Enclosed with this letter are tables 1, 1a, 1b, 1b.n, 1c, and 1d, which provide annual and 

summary projections for the proposal.

Trust Fund Operations

Table 1 provides projections of the financial operations of the OASDI program under the 

proposal and shows that the combined Social Security Trust Fund would be fully solvent 

throughout the 75-year projection period. The OASDI program would also be solvent for the 

foreseeable future (sustainably solvent), because the trust fund ratio is projected to rise by the 

end of the period, 2091.

The table shows the annual cost and income rates, annual balances, and trust fund ratios 

(reserves as percent of annual program cost) for OASDI, as well as the change from current law 

in these cost rates, income rates, and annual balances. Included at the bottom of this table are 

summarized rates for the 75-year (long-range) period.

For 2018 and later, the proposal improves the annual balance (non-interest income minus 

program cost). The improvement in the annual balance increases from 0.3 percent of current-law 

payroll for 2018 to 4.0 percent for 2050, and thereafter increases slightly to 4.1 percent for 2090. 

Under the proposal, the annual deficit declines from 1.1 percent of current-law payroll for 2016 

to 0.5 percent for 2019, increases to 1.3 percent for 2029, and then declines until the annual

balance turns positive for 2041. The annual balance increases to 0.9 percent for 2051 and then 

declines steadily through 2075, at which point the annual balance becomes negative, ultimately 

reaching an annual deficit of 0.2 percent of current-law payroll for 2090. Under current law, the 

projected annual deficit for 2090 is 4.3 percent of payroll.

The actuarial balance for the OASDI program over the 75-year projection period is improved by 

2.97 percent of taxable payroll, from an actuarial deficit of 2.66 percent of payroll under current 

law to a positive actuarial balance of 0.32 percent of taxable payroll under the proposal.

Program Transfers and Trust Fund Reserves

Column 4 of Table 1a provides a projection of the level of reserves for the combined Social 

Security Trust Fund, assuming enactment of the eight Social Security provisions of the proposal. 

These trust fund reserve amounts are expressed in present value dollars discounted to January 1, 

2016. The table indicates that the provisions include no new specified transfers of general 

revenue to the combined Social Security Trust Fund. For purpose of comparison, the OASDI 

Trust Fund reserves, expressed in present value dollars, are also shown for the current-law Social 

Security program both without and with the added proposal general fund transfers (zero in this 

case) in columns 6 and 7.
Page 11 – The Honorable John Larson

Note that negative values in columns 6 and 7 represent the “unfunded obligation” for the 

program through the year. The unfunded obligation is the present value of the shortfall of 

revenue needed to pay full scheduled benefits on a timely basis from the date of trust fund 

reserve depletion through the end of the indicated year. Gross Domestic Product (GDP),

expressed in present value dollars, is shown in column 5 for comparison with other values in the 

table.

Effect of the Social Security Provisions on the Federal Budget

Table 1b shows the projected effect, in present value discounted dollars, on the federal budget 

(unified-budget and on-budget) annual cash flows and balances, assuming enactment of the eight

Social Security provisions of the proposal. We note that section 105 of the Bill provides for 

“holding SSI, Medicaid, and CHIP beneficiaries harmless” from potential implications of the 

other sections in the Bill. Our analysis provided in these tables does not reflect the effects on 

these programs under the on-budget operations of the federal government. Table 1b.n provides 

the estimated nominal dollar effect of enactment of the proposal on annual budget balances for 

years 2016 through 2026. All values in these tables represent the amount of change from the 

level projected under current law. In addition, changes reflect the budget scoring convention that 

presumes benefits, not payable under the law after depletion of trust fund reserves, would still be 

paid using revenue provided from the General Fund of the Treasury. The reader should be 

cautioned that this presumption of payment of benefits beyond the resources of the trust funds is 

prohibited under current law and is also inconsistent with all past experience under the Social 

Security program.

Column 1 of Table 1b shows the added proposal general fund transfers (zero for this proposal).

Column 2 shows the net changes in OASDI cash flow from all provisions of the proposal.

We project the net effect of the proposal on unified budget cash flow (column 3) to be positive in 

years 2018 and later, primarily due to the payroll tax rate increase in provision 6 and the payroll 

tax newly applied to earnings above $400,000 in provision 5.

Column 4 of Table 1b indicates that the effect of implementing the proposal is a reduction of the 

theoretical federal debt held by the public, reaching about $13.6 trillion in present value at the 

end of the 75-year projection period. Column 5 provides the projected effect of the proposal on 

the annual unified budget balances, including both the cash flow effect in column 3 and the 

additional interest on the accumulated debt in column 4. Columns 6 and 7 indicate that the 

provisions of this proposal would have no expected direct effects on the on-budget cash flow, or 

on the total federal debt, in the future.

It is important to note that we base these estimates on the intermediate assumptions of the 2016 

Trustees Report, so these estimates are not consistent with estimates made by the Office of 

Management and Budget or the Congressional Budget Office based on their assumptions. In 

particular, all present values are discounted using trust fund yield assumptions under the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2016 Trustees Report.
Page 12 – The Honorable John Larson

Annual Trust Fund Operations as a Percent of GDP

Table 1c provides annual cost, annual expenditures (amount that would be payable), and annual 

tax income for the OASDI program expressed as a percentage of GDP for both current law and 

assuming enactment of the eight Social Security provisions of the proposal. Showing the annual 

trust fund cash flows as a percent of GDP provides an additional perspective on these trust fund 

operations in relation to the total value of goods and services produced in the United States. The 

relationship between income and cost is similar when expressed as a percent of GDP to that 

when expressed as a percent of taxable payroll (Table 1).

Effects on Trust Fund Reserves and Unfunded Obligations

Table 1d provides estimates of the changes in trust fund reserves and unfunded obligations on an 

annual basis. Values in this table are expressed in present value dollars discounted to January 1, 

2016.

For the 75-year (long-range) period as a whole, the current-law unfunded obligation of $11.4 

trillion is replaced by a positive trust fund reserve of $2.2 trillion in present value assuming 

enactment of the proposal. This change of $13.6 trillion results from:

• A $17.1 trillion net increase in revenue (column 2), primarily from additional payroll 

tax, minus

• A $3.5 trillion net increase in cost (column 3), primarily from the special minimum 

PIA provision, the change in computing the COLA, increases in current and future 

benefits from replacing the 90 percent factor in the PIA formula with 93 percent, and 

additional benefits from earnings taxed above the current-law taxable maximum.

We hope these estimates are helpful. Please let me know if we may provide further assistance.

Sincerely,

 Stephen C. Goss, ASA, MAAA

Chief Actuary

Enclosures
Table A—Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of H.R. 1902,

the “Social Security 2100 Act” (115th Congress), Introduced by Rep. Larson

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

for 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

Section 101) Increase the first PIA formula factor from 90 

percent to 93 percent for all benefits payable for months of 

eligibility January 2018 and later, including benefits for those 

becoming newly eligible both before and after January 2018.... -0.24 -0.26

Section 102) Use the increase in the Consumer Price Index for 

the Elderly (CPI-E) rather than the increase in the Consumer 

Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers

(CPI-W) to calculate the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), 

effective for December 2017 and later COLAs. We estimate 

this new computation would increase the annual COLA by

about 0.2 percentage point, on average...................................... -0.39 -0.52

Section 103) Beginning in 2018, reconfigure the special 

minimum PIA for workers becoming newly eligible or dying

after 2017: (a) A year of coverage (YOC) is defined as a year 

in which 4 quarters of coverage are earned. (b) For those 

becoming newly eligible or dying in 2018 with 30 or more 

YOCs, set the minimum PIA equal to 125 percent of the 2017 

Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) monthly 

poverty level. For those with under 30 YOCs, the PIA per 

YOC in excess of 10 YOCs is 125 percent of the HHS 

monthly poverty level for 2017, divided by 20. (c) For 

workers becoming newly eligible or dying after 2018, index 

the initial PIA per YOC by growth in the national average 

wage index (AWI). The 30 and 10 YOC levels apply for all 

workers, including those who die or become disabled under 

age 62.......................................................................................... -0.13 -0.19

Section 104) Replace the current-law thresholds for federal 

income taxation of OASDI benefits with a single set of 

thresholds at $50,000 for single filers and $100,000 for joint 

filers for taxation of up to 85 percent of OASDI benefits, 

effective for tax year 2018. These thresholds would be fixed 

and not indexed to price inflation or average wage increase. 

The portion of revenue from taxation of OASDI benefits that 

would be allocated to the HI Trust Fund would be the same as 

if the current-law computation (in the absence of this 

provision) applied. The net amount of revenue from taxing 

OASDI benefits, after the allocation to HI, would be allocated 

to the combined Social Security Trust 

Fund............................................................................................ -0.19 -0.01
Table A—Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of H.R. 1902,

the “Social Security 2100 Act” (115th Congress), Introduced by Rep. Larson

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

for 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

Section 201 and Section 202) Apply the OASDI payroll tax 

rate on covered earnings above $400,000 paid in 2018 and 

later, and tax all covered earnings once the current-law taxable 

maximum exceeds $400,000. Credit the additional earnings 

taxed for benefit purposes by: (a) calculating a second average 

indexed monthly earnings (“AIME+”) reflecting only earnings 

taxed above the current-law taxable maximum, (b) applying a 

2 percent factor on this newly computed “AIME+” to develop 

a second component of the PIA, and (c) adding this second 

component to the current-law PIA.............................................. 1.88 2.33

Section 203) Increase the combined OASDI payroll tax rate to 

14.8 percent, fully effective for 2042 and later. The combined 

rate is increased by 0.1 percentage point each year starting in 

2019, reaching the ultimate 14.8 percent rate for 2042 and 

later............................................................................................. 1.78 2.38

Section 204) Beginning in 2018, establish a new Social 

Security Trust Fund by combining the reserves of the separate 

OASI and DI Trust Funds and managing all future operations 

of the program on a combined basis........................................... 3 3

Total for all provisions, including interaction.................... 2.97 4.10

1

Under current law, the estimated long-range OASDI actuarial balance is -2.66 percent of taxable payroll. 2

Under current law, the estimated 75th year annual balance is -4.35 percent of taxable payroll. 3

Negligible; that is, between -0.005 and 0.005 percent of taxable payroll. 

Notes: All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2016 OASDI Trustees Report. 

 Estimates of individual provisions appear on a stand-alone basis relative to current law, unless otherwise stated.

Social Security Administration

Office of the Chief Actuary

April 5, 2017
Proposal Proposal Proposal

Year Scheduled to Scheduled to Payable to

Attain Benefit Minimum Current Law Current Law Current Law

Age 65 (Wage-Indexed (CPI-Indexed COLA5 Formula6 Benefit7 Total Scheduled Payable Payable

2015 Dollars) 2015 Dollars)

 

2016 718 718 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100 100

2030 660 812 0.6 3.2 46.0 51.5 152 152 152

2050 661 1,036 0.6 3.2 46.0 51.5 152 190 190

2080 665 1,469 0.6 3.2 46.0 51.5 152 202 202

 

2016 718 718 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100 100

2030 660 812 0.6 3.2 0.0 3.8 104 104 104

2050 661 1,036 0.6 3.2 0.0 3.8 104 130 130

2080 665 1,469 0.6 3.2 0.0 3.8 104 138 138

 

2016 718 718 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100 100

2030 660 812 0.6 3.2 0.0 3.8 104 104 104

2050 661 1,036 0.6 3.2 0.0 3.8 104 130 130

2080 665 1,469 0.6 3.2 0.0 3.8 104 138 138

2016 940 940 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100 100

2030 863 1,062 0.6 2.4 12.4 15.8 116 116 116

2050 865 1,356 0.6 2.4 12.4 15.8 116 145 145

2080 869 1,921 0.6 2.4 12.4 15.8 116 154 154

2016 940 940 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100 100

2030 863 1,062 0.6 2.4 12.4 15.8 116 116 116

2050 865 1,356 0.6 2.4 12.4 15.8 116 145 145

2080 869 1,921 0.6 2.4 12.4 15.8 116 154 154

2016 940 940 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100 100

2030 863 1,062 0.6 2.4 0.0 3.0 103 103 103

2050 865 1,356 0.6 2.4 0.0 3.0 103 129 129

2080 869 1,921 0.6 2.4 0.0 3.0 103 137 137

2016 1,548 1,548 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100 100

2030 1,423 1,750 0.6 1.5 0.0 2.1 102 102 102

2050 1,425 2,234 0.6 1.5 0.0 2.1 102 128 128

2080 1,433 3,166 0.6 1.5 0.0 2.1 102 136 136

2016 1,548 1,548 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100 100

2030 1,423 1,750 0.6 1.5 0.0 2.1 102 102 102

2050 1,425 2,234 0.6 1.5 0.0 2.1 102 128 128

2080 1,433 3,166 0.6 1.5 0.0 2.1 102 136 136

2016 2,053 2,053 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100 100

2030 1,885 2,319 0.6 1.1 0.0 1.7 102 102 102

2050 1,888 2,960 0.6 1.1 0.0 1.7 102 127 127

2080 1,899 4,195 0.6 1.1 0.0 1.7 102 135 135

2016 2,492 2,492 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100 100

2030 2,308 2,839 0.6 0.9 0.0 1.5 102 102 102

2050 2,309 3,622 0.6 0.9 0.0 1.5 102 127 127

2080 2,317 5,119 0.6 0.9 0.0 1.5 102 135 135

2016 2,492 2,492 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 100 100

2030 2,308 2,839 0.6 0.9 0.0 1.5 102 102 102

2050 2,309 3,622 0.6 3.5 0.0 4.1 104 130 130

2080 2,317 5,119 0.6 7.7 0.0 8.4 108 144 144

1

2 Projected percent of new retired worker awards in 2050 with current-law AIME levels and years of covered earnings closest to AIME levels and years of covered earnings shown.

3

4

5

6

7

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2016 Trustees Report.

Starting Dec 2017, compute the COLA using a chained CPI-E, producing 0.2% higher annual COLAs on average.

For benefits payable beginning in 2018, increase the 90 percent PIA factor to 93 percent. Starting in 2018, apply the OASDI payroll tax rate on earnings above $400,000, and tax all 

earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $400,000. Credit the additional earnings for benefit purposes by: (a) calculating a second average indexed monthly 

earnings ("AIME+") reflecting only earnings taxed above the current law taxable maximum, (b) applying a 2 percent factor on this newly computed "AIME+" to develop a second 

component of the PIA, and (c) adding this second component to the first PIA component.

For beneficiaries newly eligible in 2018, establish a minimum PIA level such that a worker with 30/10 years of coverage would receive an initial PIA of at least 125%/0% of the 

monthly poverty level for 2017. For beneficiaries newly eligible after 2018, the initial minimum PIA level would be adjusted for average wage growth. The Minimum Benefit 

Percent change is calculated after all other provisions, so that the Proposed Benefit Amount is at least the Minimum Benefit, where applicable.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration REVISED February 7, 2018

After the trust fund reserves deplete under current law continuing taxes are expected to be enough to pay about three fourths of scheduled benefits.

 Very-Low-AIME ($12,280 for 20161

) 14-Year Scaled Earner (4.2% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($22,105 for 20161) 44-Year Scaled Earner (16.9% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($22,105 for 20161) 30-Year Scaled Earner (4.4% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($22,105 for 20161) 20-Year Scaled Earner (2.0% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($49,121 for 20161) 44-Year Scaled Earner (29.2% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($49,121 for 20161) 30-Year Scaled Earner (3.2% of Retirees2)

 High-AIME ($78,594 for 20161) 44-Year Scaled Earner (19.8% of Retirees2)

 Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($118,500 for 20161) 43-Year Steady Earner (6.3% of Retirees2)

Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($237,000 for 20161) 43-Year Steady Earner3

Average of highest 35 years of taxable earnings wage indexed to 2016. For the Maximum and Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME workers, we show one times and two times the 

2016 taxable maximum, respectively.

If all earnings were considered, unlimited by annual taxable maximums, then about 1.5 percent of all retirees would have an AIME closer to Twice Maximum-Current-Law than 

Maximum-Current-Law.

Monthly Benefits4

(Percent change) (Percents)

 Very-Low-AIME ($12,280 for 20161

) 30-Year Scaled Earner (8.9% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($12,280 for 20161

) 20-Year Scaled Earner (5.2% of Retirees2

)

Table B1. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Beginning Benefit Receipt at age 65 

H.R. 1902, the “Social Security 2100 Act” (115th Congress), Introduced by Rep. Larson

Benefit Ratios

Scheduled Benefit Level Percent Change at age 65

Current Law Scheduled
Year 

Attain

Age 65 Age 65 Age 75 Age 85 Age 95

2016 100.0 105.0 107.1 109.2

2030 151.5 154.5 157.5 160.6

2050 151.5 154.5 157.5 160.6

2080 151.5 154.5 157.5 160.6

2016 100.0 105.0 107.1 109.2

2030 103.8 105.8 107.9 110.0

2050 103.8 105.8 107.9 110.0

2080 103.8 105.8 107.9 110.0

2016 100.0 105.0 107.1 109.2

2030 103.8 105.8 107.9 110.0

2050 103.8 105.8 107.9 110.0

2080 103.8 105.8 107.9 110.0

2016 100.0 104.2 106.3 108.4

2030 115.8 118.1 120.4 122.8

2050 115.8 118.1 120.4 122.8

2080 115.8 118.1 120.4 122.8

2016 100.0 104.2 106.3 108.4

2030 115.8 118.1 120.4 122.8

2050 115.8 118.1 120.4 122.8

2080 115.8 118.1 120.4 122.8

2016 100.0 104.2 106.3 108.4

2030 103.0 105.1 107.1 109.2

2050 103.0 105.1 107.1 109.2

2080 103.0 105.1 107.1 109.2

2016 100.0 103.3 105.3 107.4

2030 102.1 104.1 106.1 108.2

2050 102.1 104.1 106.1 108.2

2080 102.1 104.1 106.1 108.2

2016 100.0 103.3 105.3 107.4

2030 102.1 104.1 106.1 108.2

2050 102.1 104.1 106.1 108.2

2080 102.1 104.1 106.1 108.2

2016 100.0 102.9 104.9 107.0

2030 101.7 103.7 105.7 107.8

2050 101.7 103.7 105.7 107.8

2080 101.7 103.7 105.7 107.8

2016 100.0 102.7 104.7 106.8

2030 101.5 103.5 105.5 107.6

2050 101.5 103.5 105.5 107.6

2080 101.5 103.5 105.5 107.6

2016 100.0 102.7 104.7 106.8

2030 101.5 103.5 105.5 107.6

2050 104.1 106.1 108.2 110.3

2080 108.4 110.5 112.7 114.9

1

2 Projected percent of new retired worker awards in 2050 with current-law AIME levels and years of covered earnings closest to AIME levels and years of covered earnings shown.

3

Note: Starting Dec 2017, compute the COLA using a chained CPI-E, producing 0.2% higher annual COLAs on average.

For benefits payable beginning in 2018, increase the 90 percent PIA factor to 93 percent. 

Other Changes: 

-

-

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2016 Trustees Report.

For beneficiaries newly eligible in 2018, establish a minimum PIA level such that a worker with 30/10 years of coverage would receive an initial PIA of at least 125%/0% of the monthly 

poverty level for 2017. For beneficiaries newly eligible after 2018, the initial minimum PIA level would be adjusted for average wage growth.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration April 5, 2017

Starting in 2018, apply the OASDI payroll tax rate on earnings above $400,000, and tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $400,000. Credit the additional 

earnings for benefit purposes by: (a) calculating a second average indexed monthly earnings ("AIME+") reflecting only earnings taxed above the current law taxable maximum, (b) 

applying a 2 percent factor on this newly computed "AIME+" to develop a second component of the PIA, and (c) adding this second component to the first PIA component.

 Very-Low-AIME ($12,280 for 20161) 14-Year Scaled Earner (4.2% of Retirees2

)

 Low-AIME ($22,105 for 20161

) 44-Year Scaled Earner (16.9% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($22,105 for 20161) 30-Year Scaled Earner (4.4% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($22,105 for 20161) 20-Year Scaled Earner (2.0% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($49,121 for 20161) 44-Year Scaled Earner (29.2% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($49,121 for 20161) 30-Year Scaled Earner (3.2% of Retirees2)

 High-AIME ($78,594 for 20161) 44-Year Scaled Earner (19.8% of Retirees2)

 Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($118,500 for 20161) 43-Year Steady Earner (6.3% of Retirees2)

Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($237,000 for 20161) 43-Year Steady Earner3

Average of highest 35 years of taxable earnings wage indexed to 2016. For the Maximum and Twice Maximum-Current-Law-AIME workers, we show one times and two times the 2016 

taxable maximum, respectively.

If all earnings were considered, unlimited by annual taxable maximums, then about 1.5 percent of all retirees would have an AIME closer to Twice Maximum-Current-Law than MaximumCurrent-Law.

 Very-Low-AIME ($12,280 for 20161) 20-Year Scaled Earner (5.2% of Retirees2

)

Table B2. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Beginning Benefit Receipt at age 65 

H.R. 1902, the “Social Security 2100 Act” (115th Congress), Introduced by Rep. Larson

Proposal Scheduled Benefit as Percent of Current Law Scheduled

(Percent)

 Very-Low-AIME ($12,280 for 20161) 30-Year Scaled Earner (8.9% of Retirees2)
Category Dually Entitled2 WEP3 Foreign Born All Others4

Very-Low-AIME ($10,101 for 20071):

30-Year Scaled Earner (9.3% of Retirees) 47 6 11 40

20-Year Scaled Earner (5.8% of Retirees) 38 16 21 31

14-Year Scaled Earner (5.3% of Retirees) 22 21 45 20

Low-AIME ($18,182 for 20071):

44-Year Scaled Earner (13.1% of Retirees) 15 2 6 78

30-Year Scaled Earner (5.9% of Retirees) 16 9 18 59

20-Year Scaled Earner (3.1% of Retirees) 10 23 35 37

Medium-AIME ($40,405 for 20071):

44-Year Scaled Earner (23.0% of Retirees) 1 1 5 93

30-Year Scaled Earner (4.4% of Retirees) 1 8 26 67

High-AIME ($64,649 for 20071):

44-Year Scaled Earner (20.5% of Retirees) 0 0 6 93

Maximum-Current-Law-AIME ($82,224 for 20071):

Steady Earner (9.4% of Retirees) 0 0 7 93

1

2

3 Covered by pension from government employment and are subject to the windfall elimination provision (WEP).

4 Neither foreign born, subject to WEP, or dually entitled.

March 21, 2017

Note 3: The sum of the percentages for each category (sum across rows) could be greater than 100 percent because some beneficiaries can be classified in more than one of the 

following groups: dually entitled, WEP, and foreign born. 

Average of highest 35 years of taxable earnings wage indexed to 2007.

Under current law, entitled to an additional benefit based on someone else's account. The dually entitled percent is a minimum value. Some beneficiaries that are not currently 

dually entitled could become dually entitled in the future.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration

Table B3. Important Characteristics of Hypothetical Workers in 2007

Percent of Beneficiaries Within Each Category That Are:

Note 1: Table B3 displays the percentages of these newly-entitled retired workers in 2007 that are closest to each of the illustrative examples.

Note 2: The percents in each category are based on tabulations of a 10-percent sample of newly entitled retired-worker beneficiaries in 2007 (169,725 records). We can be 95 

percent confident that each of the values shown above is within 1.4 percentage points of the value we would find using 100 percent of the retirees in 2007.
Proposal Scheduled Payroll Taxes

Earnings Payroll Taxable Percent of Current Law

in Year (Wage-Indexed (CPI-Indexed Tax Rate2 Maximum3 Total

2015 Dollars) 2015 Dollars) (Percents)

2016 127 127 0.0 0.0 0.0 100

2030 127 156 9.7 0.0 9.7 110

2050 127 199 19.4 0.0 19.4 119

2080 127 280 19.4 0.0 19.4 119

2016 228 228 0.0 0.0 0.0 100

2030 228 281 9.7 0.0 9.7 110

2050 228 358 19.4 0.0 19.4 119

2080 228 505 19.4 0.0 19.4 119

2016 508 508 0.0 0.0 0.0 100

2030 508 624 9.7 0.0 9.7 110

2050 508 796 19.4 0.0 19.4 119

2080 508 1,122 19.4 0.0 19.4 119

2016 812 812 0.0 0.0 0.0 100

2030 812 999 9.7 0.0 9.7 110

2050 812 1,274 19.4 0.0 19.4 119

2080 812 1,795 19.4 0.0 19.4 119

2016 1,225 1,225 0.0 0.0 0.0 100

2030 1,225 1,506 9.7 0.0 9.7 110

2050 1,225 1,920 19.4 0.0 19.4 119

2080 1,225 2,706 19.4 0.0 19.4 119

2016 1,225 1,225 0.0 0.0 0.0 100

2030 1,225 1,506 9.7 11.7 22.5 122

2050 1,225 1,920 19.4 100.0 138.7 239

2080 1,225 2,706 19.4 100.0 138.7 239

1

2

3

Apply the OASDI payroll tax rate on earnings above $400,000 starting in 2018, and tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $400,000.

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2016 Trustees Report.

Percentile among all workers with any covered earnings in 2016 (including earnings both above and below the current-law maximum earnings level). We include those who will die or 

become disabled before reaching retirement age, and those who will not earn enough in their career to become fully insured for retired worker benefits. Thus, these percentiles are not 

directly comparable to the percentages in the B tables, which are based on lifetime earnings, and include only those who survive and become eligible for retirement benefits.

Increase the payroll tax rate by 0.1% each year from 2019 until it reaches 14.8% in 2042.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration April 5, 2017

98th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($237,000 in 2016) Twice Current-Law Maximum Earnings Level

Table T. Changes in Payroll Tax Contributions (Employee + Employer) for Workers with OASDI Covered Earnings in the Year

H.R. 1902, the “Social Security 2100 Act” (115th Congress), Introduced by Rep. Larson

Scheduled Payroll Taxes Percent Change 

Current Law Scheduled

Monthly Total Payroll Taxes

(Percent change) 

30th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($12,280 in 2016)

42nd Percentile Earner1 in Year ($22,105 in 2016)

69th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($49,121 in 2016)

86th Percentile Earner1

 in Year ($78,594 in 2016)

94th Percentile Earner1 in Year ($118,500 in 2016) Current-Law Maximum Earnings Level
Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

H.R. 1902, the "Social Security 2100 Act," Introduced by Representative John Larson

Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2016 14.05 12.94 -1.10 303 0.00 0.00 0.00

2017 13.72 12.92 -0.80 293 0.00 0.00 0.00

2018 14.10 13.53 -0.57 272 0.24 0.58 0.33

2019 14.26 13.72 -0.54 259 0.28 0.75 0.48

2020 14.44 13.86 -0.58 246 0.31 0.88 0.57

2021 14.61 14.02 -0.59 235 0.34 1.02 0.67

2022 14.87 14.18 -0.69 223 0.38 1.15 0.77

2023 15.17 14.33 -0.85 212 0.41 1.27 0.85

2024 15.47 14.49 -0.99 200 0.45 1.40 0.95

2025 15.77 14.63 -1.14 188 0.49 1.52 1.04

2026 15.99 14.80 -1.19 177 0.52 1.67 1.15

2027 16.20 14.96 -1.23 167 0.55 1.82 1.27

2028 16.39 15.13 -1.26 158 0.58 1.97 1.39

2029 16.57 15.30 -1.28 150 0.61 2.13 1.52

2030 16.74 15.47 -1.27 142 0.63 2.29 1.65

2031 16.88 15.64 -1.25 135 0.66 2.44 1.78

2032 17.01 15.81 -1.20 128 0.68 2.61 1.92

2033 17.11 15.98 -1.14 122 0.71 2.77 2.06

2034 17.19 16.15 -1.04 116 0.73 2.94 2.21

2035 17.24 16.32 -0.92 111 0.74 3.11 2.36

2036 17.32 16.50 -0.82 107 0.76 3.28 2.51

2037 17.38 16.68 -0.70 103 0.78 3.45 2.67

2038 17.41 16.86 -0.55 100 0.80 3.63 2.83

2039 17.42 17.04 -0.38 98 0.81 3.81 3.00

2040 17.41 17.22 -0.19 97 0.82 3.99 3.17

2041 17.39 17.41 0.02 97 0.83 4.18 3.35

2042 17.37 17.60 0.23 98 0.84 4.37 3.53

2043 17.34 17.69 0.35 101 0.85 4.46 3.62

2044 17.32 17.78 0.47 104 0.85 4.55 3.70

2045 17.31 17.88 0.57 108 0.86 4.65 3.79

2046 17.29 17.98 0.69 112 0.86 4.75 3.89

2047 17.27 18.06 0.79 117 0.87 4.83 3.96

2048 17.26 18.08 0.82 123 0.87 4.85 3.97

2049 17.24 18.09 0.84 129 0.87 4.86 3.98

2050 17.24 18.10 0.86 136 0.88 4.87 3.99

2051 17.24 18.11 0.87 142 0.88 4.88 4.00

2052 17.25 18.12 0.87 148 0.88 4.89 4.00

2053 17.28 18.13 0.85 155 0.89 4.90 4.01

2054 17.31 18.14 0.83 161 0.89 4.91 4.02

2055 17.36 18.16 0.80 167 0.89 4.91 4.02

2056 17.40 18.17 0.76 173 0.90 4.92 4.03

2057 17.46 18.18 0.72 179 0.90 4.93 4.03

2058 17.51 18.19 0.68 184 0.90 4.94 4.03

2059 17.56 18.20 0.64 190 0.91 4.94 4.04

2060 17.62 18.21 0.60 195 0.91 4.95 4.04

2061 17.67 18.22 0.55 200 0.91 4.96 4.04

2062 17.72 18.23 0.51 204 0.92 4.96 4.05

2063 17.78 18.24 0.46 209 0.92 4.97 4.05

2064 17.83 18.25 0.42 213 0.93 4.98 4.05

2065 17.88 18.26 0.38 217 0.93 4.98 4.05

2066 17.94 18.27 0.33 221 0.93 4.99 4.05

2067 18.00 18.28 0.28 225 0.94 4.99 4.06

2068 18.05 18.29 0.23 228 0.94 5.00 4.06

2069 18.11 18.30 0.19 231 0.94 5.00 4.06

2070 18.17 18.31 0.14 234 0.95 5.01 4.06

2071 18.22 18.31 0.10 237 0.95 5.01 4.06

2072 18.26 18.32 0.06 240 0.96 5.02 4.06

2073 18.30 18.33 0.03 242 0.96 5.02 4.06

2074 18.33 18.34 0.00 245 0.96 5.03 4.07

2075 18.35 18.34 -0.01 247 0.96 5.03 4.07

2076 18.37 18.35 -0.02 250 0.96 5.04 4.07

2077 18.38 18.35 -0.02 252 0.97 5.04 4.07

2078 18.38 18.36 -0.02 255 0.97 5.04 4.08

2079 18.37 18.36 -0.01 258 0.97 5.05 4.08

2080 18.37 18.36 -0.01 260 0.97 5.05 4.08

2081 18.37 18.37 0.00 263 0.97 5.06 4.09

2082 18.38 18.37 -0.01 266 0.97 5.06 4.09

2083 18.39 18.38 -0.02 269 0.97 5.06 4.09

2084 18.41 18.38 -0.03 272 0.97 5.07 4.09

2085 18.44 18.39 -0.06 274 0.97 5.07 4.10

2086 18.48 18.39 -0.09 276 0.98 5.07 4.10

2087 18.52 18.40 -0.12 278 0.98 5.08 4.10

2088 18.57 18.40 -0.16 280 0.98 5.08 4.10

2089 18.61 18.41 -0.20 282 0.98 5.08 4.10

2090 18.66 18.42 -0.25 283 0.99 5.09 4.10

2091 18.71 18.42 -0.29 285 0.99 5.09 4.10

Summarized Rates: OASDI Summarized Rates: OASDI

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

2016 - 2090 17.27% 17.59% 0.32% N/A 0.77% 3.75% 2.97%

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2016 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration

1

Under present law the year of combined Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034.

Year of reserve 

depletion1

Office of the Chief Actuary

April 5, 2017

Proposal Change from Current Law

Expressed as a percentage of current-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of current-law

taxable payroll
Table 1a - General Fund Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Reserves, and Theoretical OASDI Reserves

H.R. 1902, the "Social Security 2100 Act," Introduced by Representative John Larson

Percentage

of Payroll

Annual

Amounts

Accumulated as of 

End of Year

Gross Domestic 

Product

Without General

Fund Transfers

With Plan General

Fund Transfers

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,741.0 18,368.5 2,741.0 2,741.0

2017 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,687.5 18,780.3 2,687.5 2,687.5

2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,648.7 19,199.4 2,625.9 2,625.9

2019 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,610.7 19,590.0 2,554.4 2,554.4

2020 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,569.4 19,948.3 2,471.7 2,471.7

2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,526.2 20,275.2 2,378.9 2,378.9

2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,475.2 20,546.2 2,270.6 2,270.6

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,411.8 20,765.2 2,142.4 2,142.4

2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,336.8 20,965.2 1,994.9 1,994.9

2025 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,249.3 21,141.0 1,827.2 1,827.2

2026 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,157.3 21,283.5 1,645.4 1,645.4

2027 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,061.8 21,355.9 1,450.6 1,450.6

2028 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,964.4 21,346.6 1,244.3 1,244.3

2029 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,866.5 21,259.6 1,028.4 1,028.4

2030 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,770.0 21,099.1 804.8 804.8

2031 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,676.4 20,898.2 575.3 575.3

2032 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,587.0 20,696.5 341.0 341.0

2033 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,503.6 20,500.4 103.7 103.7

2034 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,428.2 20,306.0 -134.7 -134.7

2035 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,362.5 20,116.5 -372.8 -372.8

2036 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,304.7 19,925.6 -612.3 -612.3

2037 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,255.8 19,743.3 -852.1 -852.1

2038 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,218.1 19,571.8 -1,090.4 -1,090.4

2039 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,192.9 19,401.7 -1,326.1 -1,326.1

2040 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,181.3 19,234.9 -1,558.1 -1,558.1

2041 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,183.9 19,071.7 -1,786.1 -1,786.1

2042 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,201.0 18,908.8 -2,010.0 -2,010.0

2043 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,225.9 18,751.3 -2,229.8 -2,229.8

2044 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,258.5 18,594.5 -2,445.4 -2,445.4

2045 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,297.9 18,429.9 -2,657.8 -2,657.8

2046 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,344.8 18,269.6 -2,866.7 -2,866.7

2047 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,397.7 18,107.9 -3,072.2 -3,072.2

2048 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,452.0 17,944.3 -3,274.5 -3,274.5

2049 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,507.4 17,781.3 -3,473.9 -3,473.9

2050 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,563.4 17,618.6 -3,670.6 -3,670.6

2051 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,619.3 17,454.0 -3,865.4 -3,865.4

2052 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,674.4 17,289.8 -4,059.0 -4,059.0

2053 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,728.2 17,125.7 -4,251.9 -4,251.9

2054 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,780.0 16,960.9 -4,444.5 -4,444.5

2055 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,829.5 16,796.5 -4,637.2 -4,637.2

2056 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,876.3 16,631.9 -4,830.5 -4,830.5

2057 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,920.3 16,467.6 -5,024.3 -5,024.3

2058 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,961.4 16,304.7 -5,218.8 -5,218.8

2059 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,999.5 16,142.6 -5,413.9 -5,413.9

2060 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,034.8 15,981.3 -5,609.6 -5,609.6

2061 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,067.2 15,821.7 -5,805.8 -5,805.8

2062 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,096.9 15,664.2 -6,002.5 -6,002.5

2063 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,123.8 15,508.7 -6,199.6 -6,199.6

2064 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,148.1 15,355.7 -6,397.1 -6,397.1

2065 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,169.7 15,204.5 -6,595.0 -6,595.0

2066 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,188.5 15,055.3 -6,793.3 -6,793.3

2067 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,204.7 14,907.9 -6,992.1 -6,992.1

2068 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,218.1 14,762.2 -7,191.4 -7,191.4

2069 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,229.0 14,618.0 -7,391.0 -7,391.0

2070 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,237.3 14,476.2 -7,591.0 -7,591.0

2071 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,243.4 14,336.4 -7,791.2 -7,791.2

2072 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,247.7 14,198.6 -7,991.1 -7,991.1

2073 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,250.3 14,062.2 -8,190.5 -8,190.5

2074 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,251.7 13,927.2 -8,389.1 -8,389.1

2075 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,252.1 13,793.7 -8,586.7 -8,586.7

2076 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,252.1 13,661.5 -8,782.6 -8,782.6

2077 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,252.1 13,530.3 -8,976.7 -8,976.7

2078 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,252.1 13,399.9 -9,168.8 -9,168.8

2079 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,252.5 13,271.0 -9,358.6 -9,358.6

2080 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,253.3 13,143.2 -9,546.2 -9,546.2

2081 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,254.1 13,016.0 -9,731.8 -9,731.8

2082 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,254.9 12,889.1 -9,915.6 -9,915.6

2083 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,255.2 12,762.3 -10,098.0 -10,098.0

2084 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,254.7 12,635.6 -10,279.3 -10,279.3

2085 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,253.2 12,509.3 -10,459.9 -10,459.9

2086 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,250.4 12,383.5 -10,639.8 -10,639.8

2087 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,246.0 12,258.4 -10,819.4 -10,819.4

2088 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,240.2 12,134.0 -10,998.8 -10,998.8

2089 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,232.6 12,010.4 -11,177.9 -11,177.9

2090 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,223.4 11,887.6 -11,356.8 -11,356.8

2091 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,212.6 11,765.8 -11,535.6 -11,535.6

Total 2016-2090 0.0

Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2016 Trustees Report.

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.7%.

Office of the Chief Actuary

1

 Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption Social Security Administration

 that the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury. April 5, 2017

Calendar

Year

Proposal General Fund Transfers Present Value in Billions as of 1-1-2016

Proposal

Total OASDI

Trust Fund

Reserves

 at End of Year

Theoretical Social Security1

with Borrowing Authority

Present Value in Billions as of 1-1- 2016 Net OASDI Trust Fund Reserves at End of Year
Table 1b - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1

 (Present Value Dollars)

H.R. 1902, the "Social Security 2100 Act," Introduced by Representative John Larson

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End Of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2017 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2018 0.0 22.7 22.7 -22.7 22.7 0.0 0.0

2019 0.0 33.6 33.6 -56.3 34.3 0.0 0.0

2020 0.0 41.4 41.4 -97.7 43.2 0.0 0.0

2021 0.0 49.5 49.5 -147.3 52.6 0.0 0.0

2022 0.0 57.4 57.4 -204.6 62.1 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 64.7 64.7 -269.4 71.5 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 72.5 72.5 -341.9 81.6 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 80.3 80.3 -422.1 92.2 0.0 0.0

2026 0.0 89.7 89.7 -511.9 105.8 0.0 0.0

2027 0.0 99.3 99.3 -611.2 120.4 0.0 0.0

2028 0.0 108.8 108.8 -720.1 135.9 0.0 0.0

2029 0.0 118.0 118.0 -838.1 152.3 0.0 0.0

2030 0.0 127.1 127.1 -965.2 169.8 0.0 0.0

2031 0.0 135.9 135.9 -1,101.1 185.1 0.0 0.0

2032 0.0 144.9 144.9 -1,246.0 201.0 0.0 0.0

2033 0.0 153.9 153.9 -1,399.9 217.4 0.0 0.0

2034 0.0 163.1 163.1 -1,563.0 234.4 0.0 0.0

2035 0.0 172.4 172.4 -1,735.4 252.1 0.0 0.0

2036 0.0 181.6 181.6 -1,917.0 270.1 0.0 0.0

2037 0.0 191.0 191.0 -2,107.9 288.7 0.0 0.0

2038 0.0 200.6 200.6 -2,308.5 308.0 0.0 0.0

2039 0.0 210.4 210.4 -2,519.0 328.1 0.0 0.0

2040 0.0 220.4 220.4 -2,739.4 348.8 0.0 0.0

2041 0.0 230.7 230.7 -2,970.0 370.3 0.0 0.0

2042 0.0 241.0 241.0 -3,211.0 392.3 0.0 0.0

2043 0.0 244.7 244.7 -3,455.7 408.4 0.0 0.0

2044 0.0 248.2 248.2 -3,703.9 424.4 0.0 0.0

2045 0.0 251.8 251.8 -3,955.8 440.6 0.0 0.0

2046 0.0 255.7 255.7 -4,211.5 457.3 0.0 0.0

2047 0.0 258.4 258.4 -4,469.9 473.0 0.0 0.0

2048 0.0 256.7 256.7 -4,726.5 484.5 0.0 0.0

2049 0.0 254.7 254.7 -4,981.3 495.6 0.0 0.0

2050 0.0 252.7 252.7 -5,234.0 506.6 0.0 0.0

2051 0.0 250.7 250.7 -5,484.7 517.5 0.0 0.0

2052 0.0 248.7 248.7 -5,733.4 528.2 0.0 0.0

2053 0.0 246.6 246.6 -5,980.0 538.8 0.0 0.0

2054 0.0 244.5 244.5 -6,224.5 549.2 0.0 0.0

2055 0.0 242.3 242.3 -6,466.8 559.5 0.0 0.0

2056 0.0 240.1 240.1 -6,706.8 569.6 0.0 0.0

2057 0.0 237.8 237.8 -6,944.6 579.6 0.0 0.0

2058 0.0 235.5 235.5 -7,180.2 589.5 0.0 0.0

2059 0.0 233.2 233.2 -7,413.4 599.2 0.0 0.0

2060 0.0 231.0 231.0 -7,644.4 608.8 0.0 0.0

2061 0.0 228.6 228.6 -7,873.0 618.2 0.0 0.0

2062 0.0 226.3 226.3 -8,099.3 627.6 0.0 0.0

2063 0.0 224.0 224.0 -8,323.4 636.8 0.0 0.0

2064 0.0 221.8 221.8 -8,545.1 646.0 0.0 0.0

2065 0.0 219.5 219.5 -8,764.6 655.0 0.0 0.0

2066 0.0 217.2 217.2 -8,981.8 663.9 0.0 0.0

2067 0.0 215.0 215.0 -9,196.8 672.7 0.0 0.0

2068 0.0 212.7 212.7 -9,409.5 681.4 0.0 0.0

2069 0.0 210.5 210.5 -9,620.0 690.1 0.0 0.0

2070 0.0 208.3 208.3 -9,828.4 698.6 0.0 0.0

2071 0.0 206.2 206.2 -10,034.6 707.1 0.0 0.0

2072 0.0 204.1 204.1 -10,238.7 715.5 0.0 0.0

2073 0.0 202.1 202.1 -10,440.8 723.9 0.0 0.0

2074 0.0 200.0 200.0 -10,640.8 732.1 0.0 0.0

2075 0.0 198.0 198.0 -10,838.8 740.3 0.0 0.0

2076 0.0 196.0 196.0 -11,034.8 748.4 0.0 0.0

2077 0.0 194.0 194.0 -11,228.8 756.4 0.0 0.0

2078 0.0 192.1 192.1 -11,420.9 764.4 0.0 0.0

2079 0.0 190.2 190.2 -11,611.1 772.3 0.0 0.0

2080 0.0 188.3 188.3 -11,799.4 780.1 0.0 0.0

2081 0.0 186.5 186.5 -11,985.9 787.8 0.0 0.0

2082 0.0 184.6 184.6 -12,170.5 795.5 0.0 0.0

2083 0.0 182.7 182.7 -12,353.2 803.0 0.0 0.0

2084 0.0 180.9 180.9 -12,534.1 810.4 0.0 0.0

2085 0.0 179.0 179.0 -12,713.1 817.8 0.0 0.0

2086 0.0 177.1 177.1 -12,890.2 825.1 0.0 0.0

2087 0.0 175.3 175.3 -13,065.5 832.2 0.0 0.0

2088 0.0 173.4 173.4 -13,238.9 839.3 0.0 0.0

2089 0.0 171.6 171.6 -13,410.5 846.3 0.0 0.0

2090 0.0 169.7 169.7 -13,580.2 853.2 0.0 0.0

Total 2016-2090 0.0 13,580.2 13,580.2

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2016 Trustees Report.

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.7%.

Note: Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would Office of the Chief Actuary

 nonetheless be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. Social Security Administration

1

 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table. April 5, 2017

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2016
Table 1b.n - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1

 (Nominal Dollars)

H.R. 1902, the "Social Security 2100 Act," Introduced by Representative John Larson

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2017 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2018 0.0 24.7 24.7 -25.0 25.0 0.0 0.0

2019 0.0 37.5 37.5 -64.0 39.0 0.0 0.0

2020 0.0 47.7 47.7 -114.7 50.7 0.0 0.0

2021 0.0 58.9 58.9 -178.6 63.9 0.0 0.0

2022 0.0 70.4 70.4 -256.7 78.0 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 82.1 82.1 -350.0 93.3 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 95.2 95.2 -460.6 110.6 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 109.1 109.1 -590.3 129.7 0.0 0.0

2026 0.0 126.6 126.6 -744.8 154.5 0.0 0.0

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2016 Trustees Report.

Note: Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would Office of the Chief Actuary

 nonetheless be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. Social Security Administration

1

 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table. April 5, 2017

Billions of Nominal Dollars
Table 1c - Current Law and Proposal Cost, Expenditures, and Income: As Percent of Gross Domestic Product

H.R. 1902, the "Social Security 2100 Act," Introduced by Representative John Larson

Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

2016 4.98 4.98 4.59 4.98 4.98 4.59

2017 4.91 4.91 4.62 4.91 4.91 4.62

2018 4.98 4.98 4.65 5.07 5.07 4.86

2019 5.05 5.05 4.68 5.15 5.15 4.95

2020 5.12 5.12 4.70 5.23 5.23 5.02

2021 5.18 5.18 4.72 5.31 5.31 5.09

2022 5.28 5.28 4.75 5.42 5.42 5.17

2023 5.39 5.39 4.77 5.54 5.54 5.23

2024 5.50 5.50 4.79 5.66 5.66 5.30

2025 5.60 5.60 4.81 5.78 5.78 5.36

2026 5.67 5.67 4.81 5.86 5.86 5.42

2027 5.73 5.73 4.81 5.93 5.93 5.47

2028 5.78 5.78 4.81 5.99 5.99 5.53

2029 5.83 5.83 4.81 6.05 6.05 5.58

2030 5.87 5.87 4.81 6.10 6.10 5.64

2031 5.91 5.91 4.80 6.15 6.15 5.69

2032 5.94 5.94 4.80 6.19 6.19 5.75

2033 5.96 5.96 4.80 6.22 6.22 5.81

2034 5.98 5.29 4.80 6.24 6.24 5.86

2035 5.98 4.79 4.79 6.25 6.25 5.92

2036 6.00 4.79 4.79 6.27 6.27 5.98

2037 6.01 4.79 4.79 6.29 6.29 6.03

2038 6.01 4.78 4.78 6.29 6.29 6.09

2039 6.00 4.78 4.78 6.29 6.29 6.15

2040 5.99 4.78 4.78 6.28 6.28 6.22

2041 5.97 4.77 4.77 6.27 6.27 6.28

2042 5.96 4.77 4.77 6.26 6.26 6.34

2043 5.94 4.77 4.77 6.25 6.25 6.37

2044 5.93 4.76 4.76 6.24 6.24 6.40

2045 5.92 4.76 4.76 6.23 6.23 6.44

2046 5.91 4.76 4.76 6.22 6.22 6.47

2047 5.90 4.76 4.76 6.21 6.21 6.49

2048 5.89 4.76 4.76 6.20 6.20 6.50

2049 5.88 4.75 4.75 6.19 6.19 6.50

2050 5.87 4.75 4.75 6.19 6.19 6.50

2051 5.87 4.75 4.75 6.19 6.19 6.50

2052 5.87 4.75 4.75 6.19 6.19 6.50

2053 5.88 4.75 4.75 6.20 6.20 6.50

2054 5.89 4.75 4.75 6.21 6.21 6.50

2055 5.90 4.74 4.74 6.22 6.22 6.50

2056 5.91 4.74 4.74 6.23 6.23 6.50

2057 5.92 4.74 4.74 6.25 6.25 6.50

2058 5.94 4.74 4.74 6.26 6.26 6.50

2059 5.95 4.74 4.74 6.28 6.28 6.50

2060 5.97 4.74 4.74 6.29 6.29 6.50

2061 5.98 4.73 4.73 6.31 6.31 6.50

2062 5.99 4.73 4.73 6.32 6.32 6.50

2063 6.01 4.73 4.73 6.33 6.33 6.50

2064 6.02 4.73 4.73 6.35 6.35 6.50

2065 6.03 4.72 4.72 6.36 6.36 6.49

2066 6.04 4.72 4.72 6.37 6.37 6.49

2067 6.06 4.72 4.72 6.39 6.39 6.49

2068 6.07 4.71 4.71 6.40 6.40 6.49

2069 6.08 4.71 4.71 6.42 6.42 6.48

2070 6.09 4.71 4.71 6.43 6.43 6.48

2071 6.10 4.70 4.70 6.44 6.44 6.48

2072 6.11 4.70 4.70 6.45 6.45 6.47

2073 6.12 4.70 4.70 6.46 6.46 6.47

2074 6.12 4.69 4.69 6.46 6.46 6.47

2075 6.13 4.69 4.69 6.47 6.47 6.46

2076 6.12 4.68 4.68 6.46 6.46 6.46

2077 6.12 4.68 4.68 6.46 6.46 6.45

2078 6.11 4.67 4.67 6.45 6.45 6.45

2079 6.11 4.67 4.67 6.44 6.44 6.44

2080 6.10 4.66 4.66 6.44 6.44 6.43

2081 6.09 4.66 4.66 6.43 6.43 6.43

2082 6.09 4.66 4.66 6.43 6.43 6.43

2083 6.09 4.65 4.65 6.43 6.43 6.42

2084 6.09 4.65 4.65 6.43 6.43 6.42

2085 6.09 4.64 4.64 6.43 6.43 6.41

2086 6.10 4.64 4.64 6.44 6.44 6.41

2087 6.11 4.64 4.64 6.45 6.45 6.41

2088 6.12 4.64 4.64 6.46 6.46 6.41

2089 6.13 4.63 4.63 6.47 6.47 6.40

2090 6.14 4.63 4.63 6.49 6.49 6.40

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2016 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

April 5, 2017

Current Law OASDI Proposal OASDI

Calendar

Year
Table 1d - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Reserves / Unfunded Obligation

H.R. 1902, the "Social Security 2100 Act," Introduced by Representative John Larson

Year

Current Law OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Total Change

Through

End of Year

Proposal OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) = cumulative sum(4) (6) = (1)+(5)

2016 2,741.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,741.0

2017 2,687.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,687.5

2018 2,625.9 39.6 16.9 22.7 22.7 2,648.7

2019 2,554.4 53.2 19.6 33.6 56.3 2,610.7

2020 2,471.7 63.8 22.5 41.4 97.7 2,569.4

2021 2,378.9 74.9 25.3 49.5 147.3 2,526.2

2022 2,270.6 85.7 28.4 57.4 204.6 2,475.2

2023 2,142.4 96.2 31.5 64.7 269.4 2,411.8

2024 1,994.9 107.1 34.6 72.5 341.9 2,336.8

2025 1,827.2 117.9 37.6 80.3 422.1 2,249.3

2026 1,645.4 130.1 40.4 89.7 511.9 2,157.3

2027 1,450.6 142.3 42.9 99.3 611.2 2,061.8

2028 1,244.3 154.0 45.2 108.8 720.1 1,964.4

2029 1,028.4 165.2 47.1 118.0 838.1 1,866.5

2030 804.8 175.9 48.8 127.1 965.2 1,770.0

2031 575.3 186.1 50.2 135.9 1,101.1 1,676.4

2032 341.0 196.4 51.5 144.9 1,246.0 1,587.0

2033 103.7 206.5 52.6 153.9 1,399.9 1,503.6

2034 -134.7 216.6 53.6 163.1 1,563.0 1,428.2

2035 -372.8 226.8 54.3 172.4 1,735.4 1,362.5

2036 -612.3 236.7 55.1 181.6 1,917.0 1,304.7

2037 -852.1 246.7 55.8 191.0 2,107.9 1,255.8

2038 -1,090.4 256.9 56.3 200.6 2,308.5 1,218.1

2039 -1,326.1 267.1 56.7 210.4 2,519.0 1,192.9

2040 -1,558.1 277.3 56.9 220.4 2,739.4 1,181.3

2041 -1,786.1 287.7 57.1 230.7 2,970.0 1,183.9

2042 -2,010.0 298.1 57.1 241.0 3,211.0 1,201.0

2043 -2,229.8 301.8 57.1 244.7 3,455.7 1,225.9

2044 -2,445.4 305.3 57.0 248.2 3,703.9 1,258.5

2045 -2,657.8 308.8 56.9 251.8 3,955.8 1,297.9

2046 -2,866.7 312.5 56.7 255.7 4,211.5 1,344.8

2047 -3,072.2 314.9 56.5 258.4 4,469.9 1,397.7

2048 -3,274.5 312.9 56.2 256.7 4,726.5 1,452.0

2049 -3,473.9 310.6 55.9 254.7 4,981.3 1,507.4

2050 -3,670.6 308.3 55.5 252.7 5,234.0 1,563.4

2051 -3,865.4 305.9 55.2 250.7 5,484.7 1,619.3

2052 -4,059.0 303.5 54.8 248.7 5,733.4 1,674.4

2053 -4,251.9 301.1 54.5 246.6 5,980.0 1,728.2

2054 -4,444.5 298.5 54.1 244.5 6,224.5 1,780.0

2055 -4,637.2 296.0 53.7 242.3 6,466.8 1,829.5

2056 -4,830.5 293.4 53.4 240.1 6,706.8 1,876.3

2057 -5,024.3 290.8 53.0 237.8 6,944.6 1,920.3

2058 -5,218.8 288.2 52.6 235.5 7,180.2 1,961.4

2059 -5,413.9 285.5 52.3 233.2 7,413.4 1,999.5

2060 -5,609.6 282.9 51.9 231.0 7,644.4 2,034.8

2061 -5,805.8 280.2 51.6 228.6 7,873.0 2,067.2

2062 -6,002.5 277.6 51.3 226.3 8,099.3 2,096.9

2063 -6,199.6 275.0 50.9 224.0 8,323.4 2,123.8

2064 -6,397.1 272.3 50.6 221.8 8,545.1 2,148.1

2065 -6,595.0 269.7 50.3 219.5 8,764.6 2,169.7

2066 -6,793.3 267.1 49.9 217.2 8,981.8 2,188.5

2067 -6,992.1 264.6 49.6 215.0 9,196.8 2,204.7

2068 -7,191.4 262.0 49.3 212.7 9,409.5 2,218.1

2069 -7,391.0 259.5 48.9 210.5 9,620.0 2,229.0

2070 -7,591.0 257.0 48.6 208.3 9,828.4 2,237.3

2071 -7,791.2 254.5 48.3 206.2 10,034.6 2,243.4

2072 -7,991.1 252.1 47.9 204.1 10,238.7 2,247.7

2073 -8,190.5 249.6 47.6 202.1 10,440.8 2,250.3

2074 -8,389.1 247.2 47.2 200.0 10,640.8 2,251.7

2075 -8,586.7 244.8 46.8 198.0 10,838.8 2,252.1

2076 -8,782.6 242.4 46.4 196.0 11,034.8 2,252.1

2077 -8,976.7 240.0 46.0 194.0 11,228.8 2,252.1

2078 -9,168.8 237.6 45.5 192.1 11,420.9 2,252.1

2079 -9,358.6 235.3 45.1 190.2 11,611.1 2,252.5

2080 -9,546.2 233.0 44.7 188.3 11,799.4 2,253.3

2081 -9,731.8 230.7 44.2 186.5 11,985.9 2,254.1

2082 -9,915.6 228.4 43.8 184.6 12,170.5 2,254.9

2083 -10,098.0 226.1 43.4 182.7 12,353.2 2,255.2

2084 -10,279.3 223.8 43.0 180.9 12,534.1 2,254.7

2085 -10,459.9 221.6 42.6 179.0 12,713.1 2,253.2

2086 -10,639.8 219.3 42.2 177.1 12,890.2 2,250.4

2087 -10,819.4 217.1 41.8 175.3 13,065.5 2,246.0

2088 -10,998.8 214.9 41.4 173.4 13,238.9 2,240.2

2089 -11,177.9 212.6 41.1 171.6 13,410.5 2,232.6

2090 -11,356.8 210.4 40.7 169.7 13,580.2 2,223.4

Total 2016-2090 17056.2 3476.0 13580.2

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2016 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.7%. April 5, 2017

(Billions of Dollars, Present Value on 1-1-2016)