SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE, MD 21235-0001

SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

June 27, 2018

The Honorable Bernie Sanders

United States Senate

Washington, D.C. 20510

Dear Senator Sanders:

Enactment of S. 3147, the “Social Security Administration Fairness Act”, which you introduced 

today, would make several changes for Social Security and related programs. Section 2 would 

provide for automatic appropriation to the Social Security Administration (SSA) of an amount 

equal to 1.5 percent of expected annual benefits and payments administered by SSA to pay for 

all administrative costs incurred by SSA in fiscal years 2019 and thereafter. Section 3 would 

eliminate the 5-month waiting period for Social Security disabled worker benefits and disabled 

surviving spouse benefits. Section 4 would eliminate the 24-month waiting period for Medicare 

coverage for individuals who have become entitled for Social Security disability benefits. 

Section 5 would create a temporary moratorium on the consolidation of SSA field offices and 

hearings offices. The balance of this letter provides further description of our understanding of 

the intent of these provisions, and our estimates of the effects on the financial status of the Social 

Security (OASDI) program. We note that the enactment of these provisions would have 

financial implications for other programs that are not included in this letter. We have enjoyed 

working with Adam LaRose of your staff in the development of this Bill.

Under Section 2, the amount appropriated to SSA for payment of administrative costs would be 

set equal to 1.5 percent of benefits and payments expected for OASDI, SSI, and Special Benefits 

for World War II Veterans in fiscal year 2019, and each year thereafter. We assume that SSA

will allocate this total amount among work needed for the effective administration of all 

responsibilities of the agency, with the OASI, DI, and Medicare Trust Funds, and the General 

Fund of the Treasury being charged for the appropriate share of all expenses. To the extent that 

this automatic appropriation may provide more administrative authority than would otherwise be 

assumed in our baseline projections, we estimate that the total cost for each program will not be 

significantly affected, in net. In particular, we estimate that this provision would have a 

negligible effect on the long-range actuarial balance (that is, less than 0.005 percent of taxable 

payroll) for the OASDI program.

Section 3 would eliminate the current 5-month waiting period for receipt of disabled worker and 

disabled surviving spouse monthly benefits. Under current law, such qualifying individuals must 

be disabled for five months after their disability onset date before they can be entitled for receipt 

of Social Security disability monthly payments. Section 4 would eliminate the additional 24-
Page 2 – The Honorable Bernie Sanders

month waiting period after Social Security disability benefit entitlement for Medicare coverage

for disabled workers and disabled surviving spouses. Thus, the proposal would make both Social 

Security monthly benefits and Medicare coverage available beginning with the first full month 

after the onset of disability. The proposal would become effective upon enactment for new 

benefit entitlements. For the purpose of these estimates, we are assuming that additional benefit 

payments will first be made in October 2018.

We estimate that elimination of these waiting periods under Sections 3 and 4 would increase 

(worsen) the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit by 0.17 percent of taxable payroll, and would 

increase the annual deficit for the OASDI program by 0.19 percent of payroll for 2091. The year 

of OASDI trust fund reserve depletion under this proposal would be 2034, the same as under 

current law. Over calendar years 2018-2027, we estimate a net increase in the cost of the OASDI 

program of about $118 billion.

Section 5 would place a temporary moratorium on consolidation of SSA field offices and hearing 

offices effective on enactment. Because our baseline projections do not reflect the consolidation 

of any offices in fiscal year 2019 or later, implementation of this provision would not alter our 

projections for the OASDI program.

Table 1, enclosed, presents annual and 75-year-summarized cost rates, income rates, balances, 

and changes in annual cost and income rates and balances for the OASDI program under 

enactment of the proposal. The estimates presented here are based on the intermediate 

assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report and assume that additional benefit payments will first 

be made in October 2018. These estimates reflect the combined effort of many in the Office of 

the Chief Actuary, but most particularly Karen Glenn, Chris Chaplain, William Jimenez, Kyle 

Burkhalter, and Daniel Nickerson.

We hope these estimates are helpful. Please let me know if we may provide further assistance.

Sincerely, 

 Stephen C. Goss, ASA, MAAA

Chief Actuary

Enclosure
Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2017 13.41 13.03 -0.38 298 0.00 0.00 0.00

2018 13.50 12.93 -0.57 287 0.01 0.00 -0.01

2019 13.80 12.95 -0.85 271 0.10 0.00 -0.10

2020 13.98 12.96 -1.01 256 0.12 0.00 -0.12

2021 14.15 12.99 -1.16 241 0.13 0.00 -0.13

2022 14.39 13.03 -1.37 226 0.14 0.00 -0.14

2023 14.69 13.05 -1.63 210 0.14 0.00 -0.14

2024 14.97 13.09 -1.88 193 0.14 0.00 -0.14

2025 15.25 13.11 -2.14 176 0.15 0.00 -0.14

2026 15.52 13.14 -2.38 158 0.15 0.00 -0.15

2027 15.77 13.15 -2.61 140 0.15 0.00 -0.15

2028 16.01 13.17 -2.84 121 0.15 0.00 -0.15

2029 16.22 13.18 -3.04 103 0.15 0.00 -0.15

2030 16.42 13.20 -3.22 84 0.16 0.00 -0.15

2031 16.61 13.21 -3.40 65 0.16 0.00 -0.16

2032 16.77 13.22 -3.55 45 0.16 0.00 -0.16

2033 16.90 13.23 -3.67 25 0.16 0.00 -0.16

2034 17.01 13.24 -3.78 3 0.16 0.00 -0.16

2035 17.09 13.24 -3.85 ---- 0.17 0.00 -0.16

2036 17.16 13.25 -3.91 ---- 0.17 0.00 -0.17

2037 17.19 13.25 -3.94 ---- 0.17 0.00 -0.17

2038 17.19 13.25 -3.94 ---- 0.17 0.00 -0.17

2039 17.17 13.25 -3.92 ---- 0.17 0.00 -0.17

2040 17.14 13.25 -3.89 ---- 0.17 0.00 -0.17

2041 17.09 13.25 -3.84 ---- 0.18 0.00 -0.17

2042 17.04 13.25 -3.79 ---- 0.18 0.00 -0.18

2043 16.99 13.24 -3.74 ---- 0.18 0.00 -0.18

2044 16.94 13.24 -3.70 ---- 0.18 0.00 -0.18

2045 16.90 13.24 -3.66 ---- 0.18 0.00 -0.18

2046 16.86 13.24 -3.63 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.18

2047 16.83 13.24 -3.59 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.18

2048 16.80 13.24 -3.57 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.18

2049 16.78 13.24 -3.54 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

2050 16.76 13.24 -3.52 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

2051 16.75 13.24 -3.51 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

2052 16.75 13.24 -3.51 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

2053 16.76 13.24 -3.53 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

2054 16.78 13.24 -3.54 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

2055 16.81 13.24 -3.57 ---- 0.20 0.00 -0.19

2056 16.85 13.24 -3.61 ---- 0.20 0.00 -0.19

2057 16.89 13.25 -3.65 ---- 0.20 0.00 -0.19

2058 16.93 13.25 -3.68 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

2059 16.97 13.25 -3.72 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

2060 17.02 13.26 -3.76 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

2061 17.06 13.26 -3.80 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

2062 17.11 13.26 -3.85 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

2063 17.16 13.27 -3.89 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

2064 17.21 13.27 -3.94 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

2065 17.26 13.27 -3.98 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

2066 17.31 13.28 -4.03 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

2067 17.36 13.28 -4.08 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

2068 17.41 13.28 -4.13 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

2069 17.46 13.29 -4.18 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

2070 17.52 13.29 -4.23 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

2071 17.56 13.29 -4.27 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

2072 17.60 13.29 -4.31 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

2073 17.64 13.30 -4.34 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

2074 17.67 13.30 -4.37 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.18

2075 17.69 13.30 -4.39 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.18

2076 17.71 13.30 -4.41 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.18

2077 17.71 13.30 -4.41 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.18

2078 17.71 13.30 -4.41 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

2079 17.71 13.30 -4.40 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

2080 17.70 13.30 -4.40 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

2081 17.70 13.30 -4.40 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

2082 17.70 13.30 -4.40 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

2083 17.71 13.30 -4.40 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

2084 17.72 13.30 -4.42 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

2085 17.75 13.30 -4.44 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

2086 17.78 13.31 -4.47 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

2087 17.81 13.31 -4.50 ---- 0.20 0.00 -0.19

2088 17.85 13.31 -4.54 ---- 0.20 0.00 -0.19

2089 17.90 13.31 -4.58 ---- 0.20 0.00 -0.19

2090 17.94 13.32 -4.63 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

2091 17.99 13.32 -4.67 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

2092 18.04 13.32 -4.72 ---- 0.19 0.00 -0.19

Summarized Rates: OASDI Summarized Rates: OASDI

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

2017 - 2091 16.84% 13.84% -3.00% 2034 0.17% 0.00% -0.17%

Office of the Chief Actuary

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the Trustees Report. Social Security Administration

1

Under current law the year of combined Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034.

Year of 

reserve 

depletion1

June 27, 2018

S. 3147, the "Social Security Administration Fairness Act," introduced by Senator Sanders. Eliminate DI and Medicare waiting 

periods effective for beneficiaries becoming newly entitled after enactment. Assume additional benefit payments are first made 

in October 2018.

Proposal Change from Current Law

Expressed as a percentage of current-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of current-law

taxable payroll