SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE, MD 21235-0001

SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

April 23, 2015

The Honorable Peter DeFazio

United States House of Representatives

Washington, D.C. 20515

Dear Representative DeFazio:

I am writing in response to your request for estimates of the financial effects on Social Security of 

H.R. 1984, the Fair Adjustment and Income Revenue for Social Security Act, which you introduced 

today. This Bill (hereafter referred to as the proposal) includes three provisions with direct effects 

on the Social Security Trust Funds. We have enjoyed working closely with Arlen Weiner of your 

staff in developing this proposal to meet your goals. 

The enclosed tables provide estimates of the effects of the three provisions on the cost, income, and 

combined trust fund reserves for the Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI)

program, as well as estimated effects on retired worker benefit levels for selected hypothetical 

workers. In addition, tables 1b and 1b.n provide estimates of the Federal budget implications of the 

six provisions. Assuming enactment of the proposal, the projected trust fund reserve depletion 

years for the OASI Trust Fund, the DI Trust Fund, and the combined OASDI Trust Fund would all 

be extended to 2057 under the intermediate assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report. Under 

current law the projected trust fund reserve depletion years for these trust funds are 2034, 2016, and 

2033, respectively. 

We base all estimates on the intermediate assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report. The estimates 

and analysis provided here reflect the combined effort of many in the Office of the Chief Actuary, 

but most particularly Alice Wade, Christopher Chaplain, Daniel Nickerson, Jason Schultz, Kyle 

Burkhalter, Katie Sutton, Tiffany Bosley, and Karen Glenn.

The proposal includes the following three provisions (listed by section number in the Bill) with 

direct effects on the OASDI program:

Section 2. Eliminate the OASDI taxable maximum starting in 2016, thus the 12.4 percent 

OASDI payroll tax rate would apply to all OASDI covered earnings. No benefit credit 

would be provided based on additional earnings subject to the OASDI payroll tax.

Section 3. Reallocate payroll tax revenues between the OASI and DI Trust Funds to better 

equalize their actuarial status. The intent is for the projected trust fund reserves of the 

individual OASI and DI Funds to reach depletion in the same year, 2057. To achieve this 

under the intermediate assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report, the DI Trust Fund would 
Page 2 – The Honorable Peter DeFazio

receive all additional revenue from the proposal for the one year 2016, and a reallocation of 

0.2 percentage point (0.1 percentage point for employees and employers, each) would apply 

from the DI scheduled rate to the OASI scheduled rate for years 2033-2049. In all other 

years the OASDI payroll tax rate would be allocated as in present law.

Section 4. Use the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E) to calculate the cost-ofliving adjustment (COLA), beginning with the December 2017 COLA. We assume this 

change would increase the COLA by an average of 0.2 percentage point per year.

The balance of this letter provides a summary of the effects of the three provisions on the actuarial 

status of the OASDI program, our understanding of the specifications and intent of each provision, 

and descriptions of our detailed financial estimates for trust fund operations, benefit levels, and 

implications for the Federal budget.

Summary of Effects of the Proposal on OASDI Actuarial Status

Figure 1 below illustrates the estimated change in the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) 

Trust Fund reserves, Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund reserves, and the combined OASI and DI 

Trust Fund reserves, expressed as a percent of annual program cost, assuming enactment of the 

three provisions of this proposal. Assuming enactment, the OASI, DI, and OASDI Trust Fund 

reserves would all be expected to deplete in 2057 under the intermediate assumptions of the 2014 

Trustees Report. 

Note: Trust Fund Ratio for a given year is the ratio of reserves in the trust fund at the beginning of the year to the cost 

of the program for the year. 
Page 3 – The Honorable Peter DeFazio

For the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, under current law, 77 percent of scheduled benefits are 

projected to be payable in 2033 after reserve depletion, declining to 72 percent by 2088. Under the 

proposal, the projected level of reserves for the theoretical combined OASI and DI Trust Funds 

would deplete in 2057, 24 years later than under current law. In 2057, after depletion, 88 percent of 

scheduled benefits would be payable, declining to 83 percent payable in 2088. Enactment of this 

proposal would reduce the long-range (75-year) actuarial deficit by 1.94 percent of taxable payroll, 

from a deficit of 2.88 percent of payroll under present law to a deficit of 0.94 percent of payroll 

under the proposal. 

For the DI Trust Fund, under current law, 81 percent of scheduled benefits are projected to be 

payable in 2016 after reserve depletion, declining to 80 percent by 2088. Under the proposal, the 

projected level of reserves for the DI Trust Fund would deplete in 2057, 41 years later than under 

current law. After reserve depletion in 2057, 97 percent of scheduled benefits would be payable, 

declining to 94 percent payable in 2088. Enactment of this proposal would reduce the long-range 

actuarial deficit of the DI Trust Fund by 0.28 percent of taxable payroll, from a deficit of 0.33 

percent of payroll under present law to a deficit of 0.05 percent of payroll under the proposal. 

For the OASI Trust Fund, under current law, 75 percent of scheduled benefits are projected to be 

payable in 2034 after reserve depletion, declining to 70 percent by 2088. Under the proposal, the 

reserves for the OASI Trust Fund are projected to deplete in 2057, 23 years later than under current 

law. In 2057, after depletion, 87 percent of scheduled benefits would be payable, declining to 82 

percent payable in 2088. Enactment of this proposal would reduce the long-range actuarial deficit 

of the OASI Trust Fund by 1.67 percent of taxable payroll, from a deficit of 2.55 percent of payroll 

under present law to a deficit of 0.89 percent of payroll under the proposal. 

Figure 2 illustrates annual projected levels of cost, expenditures, and non-interest income as a 

percent of the present-law taxable payroll for the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds. The 

projected level of cost reflects the full cost of scheduled benefits under both present law and the 

proposal. Under the proposal, projected expenditures equal the full cost of scheduled benefits 

through 2056, but then are lower than the full scheduled benefit cost when trust fund reserves 

deplete in 2057.
Page 4 – The Honorable Peter DeFazio

Beginning in 2018, projected OASDI program cost is higher under the proposal than under current 

law. This difference in program cost increases over the projection period to about 0.46 percent of 

present-law payroll for 2088. The projected annual income rate under the proposal is higher than 

under current law, with the difference being relatively stable at about 2.40 percent of payroll. The 

proposal improves the projected annual balance (non-interest income minus program cost) by 1.91 

percent of payroll for 2045, with the improvement rising to 1.94 percent of payroll for 2088. 

Under the proposal, the projected OASDI annual balance is positive for years 2016 through 2023, 

and is negative thereafter. Annual deficits would increase to 2.01 percent of payroll for 2038, then 

decline to 1.77 percent of payroll for 2050, and increase thereafter, reaching 2.96 percent of payroll 

for 2088. The projected annual deficit under current law is 4.90 percent of payroll for 2088. 

Beginning in 2018, projected OASI program cost is higher under the proposal than under current 

law. This difference in projected program cost increases over the long-range period to 0.43 percent 

of present-law payroll for 2088. The annual income rate under the proposal would be higher than 

under current law, with the difference generally at 2.00 percent of payroll, except in the years of 

tax-rate reallocation of 0.2 percent from the DI to OASI. The proposal improves the projected 

annual balance by 2.03 percent of payroll for 2018, with the improvement slowly declining (except 

in years of reallocation) to 1.63 percent of payroll for 2088. 
Page 5 – The Honorable Peter DeFazio

Under the proposal, the projected OASI annual balance is positive for years 2017 through 2023, and 

is negative thereafter, reaching 2.82 percent of payroll for 2088. The projected OASI annual deficit 

under current law is 4.45 percent of payroll for 2088. 

Projected DI program cost is slightly higher under the proposal than under current law starting in 

2019, but never by more than 0.03 percent of present-law payroll. The projected annual income rate 

for 2016 is 2.27 percent of payroll higher under the proposal than under current law for 2016, when 

all additional revenues under the proposal go to the DI Trust Fund. The projected increase in the 

income rate under the proposal is generally about 0.34 percent of payroll for the rest of the period, 

except for the 2033-2049 reallocation years. Enactment of the proposal would improve the annual 

balance by 2.27 percent of payroll for 2016, by about 0.10 percent for the 2033-2049 reallocation 

years, and by a little over 0.30 percent of payroll for years after 2049. 

Under the proposal, the projected DI annual balance is positive from 2016 through 2032, and is 

negative thereafter, reaching -0.14 percent of payroll for 2088. The projected DI annual deficit 

under current law is 0.46 percent of payroll for 2088. 

It is also useful to consider the projected cost, expenditures, and income for the OASDI program 

expressed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Figure 3 below illustrates these 

projected levels under both current law and the proposal. 
Page 6 – The Honorable Peter DeFazio

Specification for Provisions of the Proposal

Section 2. Eliminate the OASDI taxable maximum starting in 2016.

Under current law, payroll taxes totaling 12.4 percent apply to OASDI covered earnings in a year up to 

the contribution and benefit base, or taxable maximum. This taxable maximum is $117,000 for 2014 and 

increases in the future in line with increases in the national average wage index (AWI). All covered 

earnings subject to the payroll tax are also potentially creditable toward computation of potential 

benefits as well as attainment of insured status. 

Under this provision, all covered earnings in excess of the present-law taxable maximum would be 

taxable starting in 2016. Therefore, all covered earnings above and below the present-law taxable 

maximum would be taxed at the 12.4 percent payroll tax rate for 2016 and later. However, no benefit 

credit would result from additional earnings subject to the OASDI payroll tax under the current-law 

taxable maximum.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would decrease the long-range OASDI actuarial 

deficit by 2.31 percent of taxable payroll and would decrease the annual deficit for the 75th

projection year (2088) by 2.47 percent of payroll.

Section 3. Reallocate revenues between OASI and DI Trust Funds

In order to roughly equalize the actuarial status of the individual OASI and DI Trust Funds, this 

provision would reallocate payroll tax revenues between the two Trust Funds for selected years. In 

order to avoid depletion of the DI Trust Fund reserves in the next few years, all of the additional 

payroll tax revenue from eliminating the taxable maximum would be allocated to the DI Trust Fund 

for the one year 2016, while the OASI Trust Fund tax revenue would be unchanged from current 

law for that year. With the elimination of the taxable maximum for 2016 and later, and allocation to 

the DI Trust Fund for just 2016 of all of the added revenue from the elimination of the taxable 

maximum, the DI Trust Fund would not deplete in 2016 and the DI Trust Fund ratio would improve 

rapidly, to over 100 percent of annual cost for 2018. 

Without any other revenue reallocation of the OASDI payroll tax rate after 2016, the DI Trust Fund 

would remain solvent throughout the 75-year projection period and the OASI Trust Fund reserves 

would deplete in 2055. Therefore, to equalize the reserve depletion years for the OASI and DI 

Trust Funds under the intermediate assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report, a payroll tax rate 

reallocation of 0.2 percentage point (0.1 percentage point for employees and employers, each) from 

DI to OASI would be applied for years 2033 through 2049. Under the overall proposal, both the DI 

and OASI Trust Fund ratios would decline to reserve depletion (for both trust funds) in 2057. 

 

Reallocation of revenues has very little effect on the status of the combined OASI and DI Trust 

Funds. Enactment of this provision alone would change the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit and 

the annual deficit for the 75th projection year (2088) by an amount that is estimated to be negligible, 

that is, by less than 0.005 percent of payroll.
Page 7 – The Honorable Peter DeFazio

Section 4. Use CPI-E to calculate the COLA, beginning with the December 2017 COLA

Under current law, the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) applied to Social Security benefits 

is calculated using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPIW). We estimate that using the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E), instead of the CPIW, beginning with the December 2017 COLA would increase the COLA by 0.2 percentage points 

per year on average.

We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would increase the long-range OASDI actuarial 

deficit by 0.37 percent of taxable payroll and would increase the annual deficit for the 75th

projection year (2088) by 0.54 percent of payroll. 

Detailed Financial Results for the Provisions of the Proposal 

Summary Results by Provision

Table A provides estimates of the effects on the OASDI long-range actuarial balance for each of 

the three provisions of the proposal separately and on a combined basis. The table also includes 

estimates of the effect of each provision on the annual balance (the difference between income rate 

and the cost rate, expressed as a percent of present-law taxable payroll) for the 75th projection year, 

2088. Interaction among individual provisions is reflected only in the total estimates for the 

combined provisions.

Benefit Illustrations

Tables B1 and B2 provide illustrative examples of the projected change in benefit levels under the 

three provisions that affect benefit levels for beneficiaries retiring at age 65 in future years at five 

selected earnings levels, with selected numbers of years of work. The “Maximum-AIME Steady 

Earner” is assumed to have earnings at ages 22 through 64 that equal the present-law taxable 

maximum level (equivalent to $117,000 for 2014). As a result, the provision to increase the taxable 

maximum does not affect benefit levels illustrated in these tables. Table B3 provides additional 

important information on characteristics of the illustrative retiring workers. 

Table B1 compares the initial benefit levels assuming retirement at age 65 under the provisions of 

the proposal to both scheduled and payable present-law benefit level. All benefit amounts under the 

proposal are higher than those scheduled in current law, especially for the very low and low 

hypothetical earners with at least 30 years of earnings (due largely to the minimum benefit 

provision). The final two columns of this table show the level of scheduled benefits under the 

proposal as a percentage of present-law scheduled and present-law payable benefits, respectively. 

Table B2 compares the change in scheduled benefit levels at ages 65, 75, 85, and 95 under the 

proposal to scheduled benefits under present law, assuming retirement at age 65. Table B2 shows 

that projected scheduled benefits under the provisions of this proposal increase in relation to 

present-law scheduled benefits between ages 65 and 95, because of the change in computing the 

COLA. 
Page 8 – The Honorable Peter DeFazio

The hypothetical workers represented in these tables reflect average career-earnings patterns of 

workers who started receiving retirement benefits under the Social Security program in recent years. 

The tables subdivide workers with very low and low career-average earnings levels by their 

numbers of years of non-zero earnings. 

Table B3 provides information helpful in interpreting the benefit illustrations in tables B1 and B2. 

Percentages in Table B3 are based on tabulations from a 10-percent sample of newly-entitled retired 

workers in 2007. Table B3 displays the percentages of these newly-entitled retired workers in 2007 

that are closest to each of the illustrative examples and are: 

1) “Dually Entitled”, meaning they received a higher spouse or widow(er) benefit based on the 

career earnings of their husband or wife,

2) “WEP” (Windfall Elimination Provision), meaning that they received a reduced benefit due 

to having a pension based on earnings that were not covered under the OASDI program 

(primarily certain government workers), and they had less than 30 years of substantial 

earnings that were taxable under the OASDI program,

3) “Foreign Born”, meaning that they entered the Social Security coverage area after birth (and 

generally after entering working ages), and

4) “All Others”, meaning they had none of the three characteristics listed above.

The extent to which retired-worker beneficiaries represented by each of the illustrative examples 

has any of the characteristics listed above (dually entitled, WEP, foreign born) is important because 

such individuals are less dependent on the OASDI benefit that relates to their own career-average 

earnings level. 

Detailed Tables Containing Annual and Summary Projections

Enclosed with this letter are tables 1, 1a, 1b, 1b.n, 1c, and 1d, which provide annual and summary 

projections for the proposal. 

Trust Fund Operations

Table 1-OASDI provides projections of the financial operations of the OASDI program and shows 

that the combined OASDI Trust Funds would deplete in 2057. The table shows the annual cost and 

income rates, annual balances, and trust fund ratios (reserves as percent of annual program cost) for 

OASDI, as well as the change from present law in these cost rates, income rates, and balances. 

Included at the bottom of this table are summarized rates for the 75-year (long-range) period.

The actuarial balance for the OASDI program over the 75-year projection period improves by 1.94 

percent of taxable payroll, from an actuarial deficit of 2.88 percent of payroll under current law to a 

positive actuarial balance of 0.94 percent of taxable payroll.

Table 1-OASI and Table 1-DI provide similar projections for the individual OASI and DI Trust 

Funds. The reserves of each Trust Fund would deplete in 2057. The actuarial balance for the OASI 

program over the 75-year projection period improves by 1.67 percent of taxable payroll, from an 

actuarial deficit of 2.55 percent of payroll under current law to a deficit of 0.89 percent of taxable 

payroll. The actuarial balance for the DI program over the 75-year projection period improves by 
Page 9 – The Honorable Peter DeFazio

0.28 percent of taxable payroll, from an actuarial deficit of 0.33 percent of payroll under current law 

to a deficit of 0.05 percent of taxable payroll. 

Program Transfers and Trust Fund Reserves

Column 4 of Table 1a provides a projection of the level of reserves for the theoretical combined 

OASI and DI Trust Funds. These trust fund reserve amounts are expressed in present value dollars 

discounted to January 1, 2014. The table indicates that the provisions include no new specified 

transfers of general revenue to the Trust Funds. For purpose of comparison, the OASDI trust fund 

reserves, expressed in present value dollars, are also shown for the current-law Social Security 

program both without and with the added proposal general fund transfers (zero in this case) in 

columns 6 and 7. 

Note that negative values in columns 4, 6, and 7 represent the “unfunded obligation” for the 

program through the year. The unfunded obligation is the present value of the shortfall of revenue 

needed to pay full scheduled benefits on a timely basis from the date of trust fund reserve depletion 

through the end of the indicated year. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), expressed in present value 

dollars, is shown in column 5 for comparison with other values in the table.

Effect of the Social Security Provisions on the Federal Budget

Table 1b shows the projected effect, in present value discounted dollars, on the Federal budget 

(unified-budget and on-budget) cash flows and balances, assuming enactment of the three Social 

Security provisions of this proposal. Table 1b.n provides the estimated nominal dollar effect of 

enactment of the proposal on annual budget balances for years 2014 through 2024. All values in 

these tables represent the amount of change from the level projected under current law for the 

combined OASDI Trust Fund and reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits, not 

payable under the law after depletion of trust fund reserves, would still be paid using revenue 

provided from the General Fund of the Treasury obtained by additional borrowing from the public. 

Column 1 of Table 1b shows the added proposal general fund transfers (zero in this case). Column 

2 shows the net changes in OASDI cash flow from all provisions of the proposal. 

We expect the net effect of the proposal on unified budget cash flow (column 3) to be positive in 

years 2016 and later, reflecting the elimination of the taxable maximum starting in 2016.

Column 4 of Table 1b indicates that the effect of implementing the three provisions is a reduction of 

the Federal debt held by the public, reaching about $7.5 trillion in present value at the end of the 75-

year projection period. Column 5 provides the projected effect of the proposal on the annual unified 

budget balances, including both the cash flow effect in column 3 and the additional interest on the 

accumulated debt in column 4. Columns 6 and 7 indicate that the provisions of this proposal would 

have no expected direct effects on the on-budget cash flow, or on the total Federal debt, in the 

future.

It is important to note that we base these estimates on the intermediate assumptions of the 2014 

Trustees Report and thus are not consistent with estimates made by the Office of Management and 

Budget or the Congressional Budget Office based on their assumptions. In particular, all present 
Page 10 – The Honorable Peter DeFazio

values are discounted using trust fund yield assumptions under the intermediate assumptions of the 

2014 Trustees Report. 

Annual Trust Fund Operations as a Percent of GDP

Table 1c provides annual cost, annual expenditures (amount that would be payable), and annual tax 

income for the OASDI program expressed as a percentage of GDP for both present law and 

assuming enactment of the six Social Security provisions of the proposal. Showing the annual trust 

fund cash flows as a percent of GDP provides an additional perspective on these trust fund 

operations in relation to the total value of goods and services produced in the United States. The 

relationship between income and cost is similar when expressed as a percent of GDP to that when 

expressed as a percent of taxable payroll (Table 1). 

Effects on Trust Fund Reserves and Unfunded Obligations

Table 1d provides estimates of the changes in trust fund reserves. Values in this table are 

expressed in present value dollars discounted to January 1, 2014. 

For the 75-year (long-range) period as a whole, the present-law unfunded obligation of $10.6 

trillion is reduced to $3.0 trillion in present value. This change of $7.5 trillion results from: 

 An $8.8 trillion increase in revenue (column 2), from additional payroll tax, minus

 A $1.3 trillion increase in cost (column 3), primarily from calculating the COLA using 

the CPI-E rather than the CPI-W.

We hope these estimates are helpful. Please let me know if we may provide further assistance.

Sincerely,

Stephen C. Goss

Chief Actuary

Enclosures
Table A—Estimated Long-Range OASDI Financial Effects of H.R. 1984, the

Fair Adjustment and Income Revenue for Social Security Act, introduced by 

Representative DeFazio

Provision

Estimated Change in

Long-Range OASDI 

Actuarial Balance 1

(as a percent of payroll)

Estimated Change 

in Annual Balance 

in 75th year 2

(as a percent of payroll)

Section 2. Eliminate the OASDI taxable maximum for years 

2016 and later, and apply full 12.4 percent payroll tax rate to 

all earnings. Do not provide benefit credit for earnings above 

the current-law taxable maximum................................................................................................ 2.31 ................. 2.47

Section 3. Incremental to Section 2 above, allocate all new 

revenue to the DI Trust Fund in the one year 2016. Reallocate 

0.2 percentage point of payroll tax revenues from the DI Trust 

Fund to the OASI Trust Fund from 2033-2049. The allocation 

in present law would be unchanged for all other years .................................................................................

3 3

Section 4. Compute the COLA using the Consumer Price 

Index for the Elderly (CPI-E) beginning with the December 

2017 COLA. We estimate this new computation will increase 

the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) by about 0.2 

percentage point, on average ................................................................................................ -0.37 ......................... -0.54

Total for all provisions, including interaction ................................................................ 1.94 .........1.94

1Under current law, the estimated long-range OASDI actuarial balance is -2.88 percent of taxable payroll.

2Under current law, the estimated 75th year annual balance is -4.90 percent of taxable payroll.

3The estimated change is negligible, that is, less than 0.005 percent of taxable payroll.

Notes: All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2014 OASDI Trustees Report. 

 Estimates of individual provisions appear on a stand-alone basis relative to current law, unless otherwise stated.

Social Security Administration

Office of the Chief Actuary

April 23, 2015
Year 

Attain Increased

Age 65 (Wage-Indexed (CPI-Indexed COLA4 Total Scheduled Payable

2014 Dollars) 2014 Dollars)

 

2014 705 705 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 629 806 0.6 0.6 101 101

2050 633 1,015 0.6 0.6 101 131

2080 632 1,397 0.6 0.6 101 -

 

2014 705 705 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 629 806 0.6 0.6 101 101

2050 633 1,015 0.6 0.6 101 131

2080 632 1,397 0.6 0.6 101 -

 

2014 705 705 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 629 806 0.6 0.6 101 101

2050 633 1,015 0.6 0.6 101 131

2080 632 1,397 0.6 0.6 101 -

2014 922 922 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 823 1,055 0.6 0.6 101 101

2050 828 1,328 0.6 0.6 101 131

2080 827 1,828 0.6 0.6 101 -

2014 922 922 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 823 1,055 0.6 0.6 101 101

2050 828 1,328 0.6 0.6 101 131

2080 827 1,828 0.6 0.6 101 -

2014 922 922 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 823 1,055 0.6 0.6 101 101

2050 828 1,328 0.6 0.6 101 131

2080 827 1,828 0.6 0.6 101 -

2014 1,520 1,520 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 1,356 1,739 0.6 0.6 101 101

2050 1,364 2,189 0.6 0.6 101 131

2080 1,364 3,013 0.6 0.6 101 -

2014 1,520 1,520 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 1,356 1,739 0.6 0.6 101 101

2050 1,364 2,189 0.6 0.6 101 131

2080 1,364 3,013 0.6 0.6 101 -

2014 2,015 2,015 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 1,797 2,304 0.6 0.6 101 101

2050 1,807 2,900 0.6 0.6 101 131

2080 1,807 3,992 0.6 0.6 101 -

2014 2,432 2,432 0.0 0.0 100 100

2030 2,199 2,819 0.6 0.6 101 101

2050 2,210 3,545 0.6 0.6 101 131

2080 2,204 4,870 0.6 0.6 101 -

1 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2014.

2

Projected percent of new retired worker awards in 2050 closest to AIME levels and years of work.

3 After the trust fund reserves deplete under present law continuing taxes are expected to be enough to pay about three fourths of scheduled benefits.

4

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration April 23, 2015

 Medium-AIME ($46,787 for 20141) 30-Year Scaled Earner (2.7% of Retirees2)

 High-AIME ($74,859 for 20141) 44-Year Scaled Earner (21.5% of Retirees2)

 Maximum-AIME ($117,000 for 20141) 43-Year Steady Earner (6.0% of Retirees2)

Starting with the Dec 2017 COLA, compute the COLA using the CPI-E, producing 0.2% higher annual COLAs on average.

 Low-AIME ($21,054 for 20141) 20-Year Scaled Earner (2.4% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($46,787 for 20141) 44-Year Scaled Earner (29.2% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,697 for 20141) 30-Year Scaled Earner (8.5% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,697 for 20141) 20-Year Scaled Earner (4.8% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,697 for 20141) 14-Year Scaled Earner (4.6% of Retirees2)

(Percent change) (Percents)

 Low-AIME ($21,054 for 20141) 44-Year Scaled Earner (15.3% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($21,054 for 20141) 30-Year Scaled Earner (5.0% of Retirees2)

Monthly Benefits3 Percent of Present Law:

Table B1. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Beginning Benefit Receipt at age 65 

H.R. 1984, the Fair Adjustment and Income Revenue for Social Security Act , introduced by Representative DeFazio

Scheduled Benefit Level Percent Change at age 65

Present Law Scheduled Proposal Scheduled Benefit
Year 

Attain

Age 65 Age 65 Age 75 Age 85 Age 95

2014 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2050 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2080 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2014 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2050 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2080 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2014 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2050 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2080 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2014 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2050 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2080 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2014 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2050 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2080 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2014 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2050 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2080 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2014 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2050 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2080 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2014 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2050 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2080 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2014 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2050 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2080 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2014 100.0 101.4 103.4 105.4

2030 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2050 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

2080 100.6 102.6 104.6 106.6

1 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2014.

2

Projected percent of new retired worker awards in 2050 closest to AIME levels and years of work.

Note: Starting with the Dec 2017 COLA, compute the COLA using the CPI-E, producing 0.2% higher annual COLAs on average.

All estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration April 23, 2015

 High-AIME ($74,859 for 20141) 44-Year Scaled Earner (21.5% of Retirees2)

 Maximum-AIME ($117,000 for 20141) 43-Year Steady Earner (6.0% of Retirees2)

Table B2. Changes in Benefits for Hypothetical Workers Beginning Benefit Receipt at age 65 

H.R. 1984, the Fair Adjustment and Income Revenue for Social Security Act , introduced by Representative DeFazio

Proposal Scheduled Benefit as Percent of Present Law Scheduled

(Percent)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,697 for 20141) 30-Year Scaled Earner (8.5% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,697 for 20141) 20-Year Scaled Earner (4.8% of Retirees2)

 Very-Low-AIME ($11,697 for 20141) 14-Year Scaled Earner (4.6% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($21,054 for 20141) 44-Year Scaled Earner (15.3% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($46,787 for 20141) 44-Year Scaled Earner (29.2% of Retirees2)

 Medium-AIME ($46,787 for 20141) 30-Year Scaled Earner (2.7% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($21,054 for 20141) 30-Year Scaled Earner (5.0% of Retirees2)

 Low-AIME ($21,054 for 20141) 20-Year Scaled Earner (2.4% of Retirees2)
Category Dually Entitled2 WEP3

Foreign Born All Others4

Very-Low-AIME ($11,697 for 20141):

30-Year Scaled Earner (9.3% of Retirees) 47 6 11 40

20-Year Scaled Earner (5.8% of Retirees) 38 16 21 31

14-Year Scaled Earner (5.3% of Retirees) 22 21 45 20

Low-AIME ($21,054 for 20141):

44-Year Scaled Earner (13.1% of Retirees) 15 2 6 78

30-Year Scaled Earner (5.9% of Retirees) 16 9 18 59

20-Year Scaled Earner (3.1% of Retirees) 10 23 35 37

Medium-AIME ($46,787 for 20141):

44-Year Scaled Earner (23.0% of Retirees) 1 1 5 93

30-Year Scaled Earner (4.4% of Retirees) 1 8 26 67

High-AIME ($74,859 for 20141):

44-Year Scaled Earner (20.5% of Retirees) 0 0 6 93

Maximum-AIME ($117,000 for 20141):

Steady Earner (9.4% of Retirees) 0 0 7 93

1 Average of highest 35 years of earnings wage indexed to 2014.

2

3 Covered by pension from government employment and are subject to the windfall elimination provision (WEP).

4 Neither foreign born, subject to WEP, or dually entitled.

July 28, 2014

Note 3: The sum of the percentages for each category (sum across rows) could be greater than 100 percent because some beneficiaries can be classified in more than one of the 

following groups: dually entitled, WEP, and foreign born. 

Under current law, entitled to an additional benefit based on someone else's account. The dually entitled percent is a minimum value. Some beneficiaries that are not 

currently dually entitled could become dually entitled in the future.

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration

Table B3. Important Characteristics of Hypothetical Workers in 2007

Percent of Beneficiaries Within Each Category That Are:

Note 1:Table B3 displays the percentages of these newly-entitled retired workers in 2007 that are closest to each of the illustrative examples.

Note 2: Percents based on tabulations of a 10-percent sample of newly entitled retired-worker beneficiaries in 2007 (169,725 records). We can be 95 percent confident that each 

of the values shown above is within 1.4 percentage points of the value we would find using 100 percent of the retirees in 2007.
Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2014 13.95 12.67 -1.29 320 0.00 0.00 0.00

2015 13.97 12.92 -1.05 306 0.00 0.00 0.00

2016 13.97 15.16 1.20 292 0.00 2.27 2.27

2017 13.97 15.31 1.34 293 -0.01 2.40 2.40

2018 14.04 15.33 1.29 294 0.02 2.39 2.37

2019 14.19 15.32 1.13 294 0.05 2.38 2.33

2020 14.40 15.32 0.92 294 0.07 2.36 2.29

2021 14.60 15.33 0.73 293 0.10 2.35 2.25

2022 14.86 15.35 0.49 291 0.12 2.34 2.21

2023 15.15 15.35 0.20 287 0.15 2.32 2.17

2024 15.45 15.37 -0.08 283 0.17 2.32 2.15

2025 15.74 15.39 -0.35 278 0.20 2.32 2.12

2026 16.01 15.41 -0.60 272 0.22 2.32 2.10

2027 16.27 15.43 -0.84 266 0.24 2.33 2.08

2028 16.51 15.45 -1.06 260 0.27 2.33 2.06

2029 16.72 15.46 -1.26 254 0.29 2.33 2.04

2030 16.91 15.48 -1.43 247 0.31 2.33 2.03

2031 17.07 15.49 -1.58 240 0.32 2.33 2.01

2032 17.21 15.50 -1.70 233 0.34 2.33 1.99

2033 17.31 15.51 -1.80 225 0.36 2.34 1.98

2034 17.40 15.52 -1.89 216 0.37 2.34 1.97

2035 17.47 15.53 -1.95 207 0.38 2.34 1.96

2036 17.52 15.53 -1.99 199 0.39 2.34 1.95

2037 17.55 15.54 -2.01 190 0.40 2.34 1.94

2038 17.55 15.54 -2.01 181 0.41 2.34 1.93

2039 17.54 15.54 -2.00 172 0.42 2.34 1.92

2040 17.51 15.54 -1.97 163 0.43 2.34 1.92

2041 17.48 15.54 -1.94 154 0.43 2.35 1.91

2042 17.45 15.54 -1.90 145 0.43 2.35 1.91

2043 17.42 15.55 -1.87 137 0.44 2.35 1.91

2044 17.40 15.55 -1.85 128 0.44 2.35 1.91

2045 17.38 15.55 -1.83 119 0.44 2.35 1.91

2046 17.37 15.55 -1.82 111 0.44 2.35 1.91

2047 17.36 15.55 -1.80 102 0.44 2.35 1.91

2048 17.34 15.55 -1.79 93 0.44 2.35 1.91

2049 17.33 15.55 -1.77 84 0.44 2.35 1.92

2050 17.33 15.56 -1.77 75 0.44 2.36 1.92

2051 17.33 15.56 -1.77 66 0.43 2.36 1.92

2052 17.34 15.56 -1.78 57 0.43 2.36 1.93

2053 17.37 15.57 -1.80 48 0.43 2.36 1.93

2054 17.40 15.57 -1.83 38 0.43 2.36 1.93

2055 17.44 15.57 -1.87 29 0.43 2.36 1.93

2056 17.49 15.58 -1.91 19 0.42 2.36 1.94

2057 17.54 15.58 -1.95 8 0.42 2.36 1.94

2058 17.58 15.59 -2.00 ---- 0.42 2.36 1.94

2059 17.63 15.59 -2.04 ---- 0.42 2.37 1.94

2060 17.68 15.60 -2.08 ---- 0.42 2.37 1.94

2061 17.73 15.60 -2.13 ---- 0.42 2.37 1.94

2062 17.78 15.61 -2.17 ---- 0.42 2.37 1.95

2063 17.83 15.61 -2.22 ---- 0.42 2.37 1.95

2064 17.87 15.61 -2.26 ---- 0.43 2.37 1.95

2065 17.92 15.62 -2.30 ---- 0.43 2.37 1.95

2066 17.98 15.62 -2.35 ---- 0.43 2.37 1.95

2067 18.03 15.63 -2.40 ---- 0.43 2.38 1.95

2068 18.08 15.63 -2.44 ---- 0.43 2.38 1.95

2069 18.13 15.64 -2.49 ---- 0.43 2.38 1.94

2070 18.18 15.64 -2.53 ---- 0.44 2.38 1.94

2071 18.22 15.65 -2.57 ---- 0.44 2.38 1.94

2072 18.26 15.65 -2.61 ---- 0.44 2.38 1.94

2073 18.29 15.65 -2.63 ---- 0.44 2.38 1.94

2074 18.31 15.66 -2.65 ---- 0.44 2.39 1.94

2075 18.33 15.66 -2.67 ---- 0.45 2.39 1.94

2076 18.34 15.66 -2.68 ---- 0.45 2.39 1.94

2077 18.34 15.66 -2.68 ---- 0.45 2.39 1.94

2078 18.34 15.66 -2.68 ---- 0.45 2.39 1.94

2079 18.35 15.67 -2.68 ---- 0.45 2.39 1.94

2080 18.36 15.67 -2.69 ---- 0.45 2.39 1.94

2081 18.37 15.67 -2.70 ---- 0.45 2.40 1.94

2082 18.39 15.67 -2.72 ---- 0.46 2.40 1.94

2083 18.42 15.67 -2.75 ---- 0.46 2.40 1.94

2084 18.46 15.68 -2.78 ---- 0.46 2.40 1.94

2085 18.50 15.68 -2.82 ---- 0.46 2.40 1.94

2086 18.55 15.69 -2.86 ---- 0.46 2.40 1.94

2087 18.60 15.69 -2.91 ---- 0.46 2.40 1.94

2088 18.65 15.69 -2.96 ---- 0.46 2.41 1.94

2089 18.71 15.70 -3.01 ---- 0.47 2.41 1.94

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

17.11% 16.17% -0.94% 2057 0.34% 2.28% 1.94%

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

1 Under present law the year of combined Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2033. April 23, 2015

Table 1-OASDI. OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

H.R. 1984, the Fair Adjustment and Income Revenue for Social Security Act , introduced by Representative DeFazio

Proposal

Year of reserve 

depletion1

Summarized Rates: OASDI

Change from Present Law

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll

Summarized Rates: OASDI

2014 - 2088
Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2014 11.58 10.87 -0.71 373 0.00 0.00 0.00

2015 11.65 11.09 -0.56 359 0.00 0.00 0.00

2016 11.71 11.07 -0.64 345 0.00 0.00 0.00

2017 11.77 13.03 1.26 329 0.00 1.95 1.95

2018 11.88 13.15 1.27 329 0.02 2.05 2.03

2019 12.07 13.15 1.08 328 0.04 2.03 1.99

2020 12.30 13.15 0.85 326 0.06 2.02 1.96

2021 12.50 13.16 0.66 324 0.09 2.01 1.92

2022 12.75 13.18 0.43 320 0.11 2.00 1.89

2023 13.04 13.18 0.15 315 0.13 1.98 1.85

2024 13.32 13.20 -0.12 309 0.16 1.98 1.83

2025 13.60 13.22 -0.38 302 0.18 1.99 1.81

2026 13.86 13.24 -0.62 295 0.20 1.99 1.79

2027 14.12 13.26 -0.86 287 0.22 1.99 1.77

2028 14.37 13.27 -1.10 279 0.24 1.99 1.75

2029 14.60 13.29 -1.31 271 0.26 1.99 1.73

2030 14.80 13.30 -1.49 262 0.28 1.99 1.71

2031 14.96 13.31 -1.65 253 0.30 2.00 1.70

2032 15.10 13.32 -1.78 244 0.31 2.00 1.68

2033 15.20 13.56 -1.65 234 0.33 2.22 1.89

2034 15.30 13.58 -1.72 225 0.34 2.24 1.89

2035 15.36 13.58 -1.78 216 0.36 2.24 1.88

2036 15.41 13.59 -1.82 206 0.37 2.24 1.87

2037 15.44 13.59 -1.85 197 0.38 2.24 1.86

2038 15.45 13.60 -1.85 188 0.39 2.24 1.86

2039 15.43 13.60 -1.83 178 0.39 2.24 1.85

2040 15.40 13.60 -1.80 169 0.40 2.24 1.85

2041 15.35 13.60 -1.75 160 0.40 2.24 1.84

2042 15.30 13.60 -1.70 151 0.41 2.25 1.84

2043 15.26 13.60 -1.66 143 0.41 2.25 1.84

2044 15.22 13.60 -1.62 134 0.41 2.25 1.84

2045 15.19 13.60 -1.59 126 0.41 2.25 1.84

2046 15.17 13.60 -1.57 117 0.41 2.25 1.84

2047 15.15 13.60 -1.55 109 0.41 2.25 1.84

2048 15.13 13.60 -1.53 101 0.41 2.25 1.84

2049 15.11 13.60 -1.50 92 0.41 2.25 1.84

2050 15.10 13.38 -1.72 84 0.41 2.03 1.62

2051 15.09 13.37 -1.72 74 0.41 2.02 1.61

2052 15.10 13.37 -1.73 64 0.40 2.02 1.61

2053 15.12 13.37 -1.74 53 0.40 2.02 1.62

2054 15.14 13.38 -1.76 43 0.40 2.02 1.62

2055 15.18 13.38 -1.80 32 0.40 2.02 1.62

2056 15.22 13.39 -1.84 21 0.40 2.02 1.62

2057 15.27 13.39 -1.88 9 0.40 2.02 1.63

2058 15.33 13.39 -1.93 ---- 0.40 2.02 1.63

2059 15.38 13.40 -1.98 ---- 0.39 2.02 1.63

2060 15.43 13.40 -2.02 ---- 0.39 2.03 1.63

2061 15.47 13.41 -2.07 ---- 0.40 2.03 1.63

2062 15.52 13.41 -2.11 ---- 0.40 2.03 1.63

2063 15.56 13.42 -2.15 ---- 0.40 2.03 1.63

2064 15.61 13.42 -2.19 ---- 0.40 2.03 1.63

2065 15.66 13.42 -2.23 ---- 0.40 2.03 1.63

2066 15.70 13.43 -2.28 ---- 0.40 2.03 1.63

2067 15.76 13.43 -2.32 ---- 0.40 2.03 1.63

2068 15.80 13.44 -2.37 ---- 0.40 2.03 1.63

2069 15.85 13.44 -2.41 ---- 0.41 2.04 1.63

2070 15.90 13.44 -2.46 ---- 0.41 2.04 1.63

2071 15.95 13.45 -2.50 ---- 0.41 2.04 1.63

2072 15.98 13.45 -2.53 ---- 0.41 2.04 1.63

2073 16.02 13.45 -2.56 ---- 0.41 2.04 1.63

2074 16.04 13.46 -2.59 ---- 0.42 2.04 1.63

2075 16.06 13.46 -2.60 ---- 0.42 2.04 1.63

2076 16.07 13.46 -2.61 ---- 0.42 2.04 1.63

2077 16.07 13.46 -2.61 ---- 0.42 2.05 1.63

2078 16.06 13.46 -2.60 ---- 0.42 2.05 1.63

2079 16.05 13.47 -2.59 ---- 0.42 2.05 1.63

2080 16.05 13.47 -2.58 ---- 0.42 2.05 1.63

2081 16.05 13.47 -2.59 ---- 0.42 2.05 1.63

2082 16.07 13.47 -2.60 ---- 0.43 2.05 1.63

2083 16.09 13.47 -2.62 ---- 0.43 2.05 1.63

2084 16.12 13.48 -2.65 ---- 0.43 2.05 1.63

2085 16.16 13.48 -2.68 ---- 0.43 2.06 1.63

2086 16.21 13.48 -2.73 ---- 0.43 2.06 1.63

2087 16.26 13.49 -2.77 ---- 0.43 2.06 1.63

2088 16.32 13.49 -2.82 ---- 0.43 2.06 1.63

2089 16.37 13.50 -2.88 ---- 0.44 2.06 1.62

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

14.89% 14.00% -0.89% 2057 0.32% 1.98% 1.67%

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

1 Under present law the year of OASI Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. April 23, 2015

Summarized Rates: OASI

Year of reserve 

depletion1

Summarized Rates: OASI

2014 - 2088

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report

Table 1-OASI. OASI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

H.R. 1984, the Fair Adjustment and Income Revenue for Social Security Act , introduced by Representative DeFazio

Proposal Change from Present Law

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll
Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2014 2.37 1.80 -0.58 62 0.00 0.00 0.00

2015 2.32 1.83 -0.49 39 0.00 0.00 0.00

2016 2.26 4.10 1.84 18 0.00 2.27 2.27

2017 2.20 2.28 0.08 99 -0.01 0.45 0.46

2018 2.15 2.18 0.02 103 0.00 0.35 0.35

2019 2.13 2.17 0.05 105 0.01 0.34 0.34

2020 2.10 2.17 0.07 108 0.01 0.34 0.33

2021 2.11 2.17 0.06 112 0.01 0.34 0.33

2022 2.11 2.17 0.06 115 0.01 0.34 0.32

2023 2.12 2.17 0.05 119 0.02 0.34 0.32

2024 2.13 2.17 0.04 122 0.02 0.34 0.32

2025 2.14 2.17 0.03 125 0.02 0.34 0.32

2026 2.15 2.17 0.02 127 0.02 0.34 0.31

2027 2.15 2.17 0.02 130 0.02 0.34 0.31

2028 2.14 2.18 0.04 133 0.02 0.34 0.31

2029 2.13 2.18 0.05 137 0.03 0.34 0.31

2030 2.11 2.18 0.06 142 0.03 0.34 0.31

2031 2.11 2.18 0.07 148 0.03 0.34 0.31

2032 2.10 2.18 0.07 153 0.03 0.34 0.31

2033 2.10 1.95 -0.15 159 0.03 0.11 0.09

2034 2.11 1.94 -0.17 153 0.03 0.10 0.07

2035 2.11 1.94 -0.17 147 0.03 0.10 0.07

2036 2.11 1.94 -0.17 141 0.03 0.10 0.07

2037 2.11 1.94 -0.16 135 0.03 0.10 0.07

2038 2.10 1.94 -0.16 130 0.03 0.10 0.07

2039 2.11 1.94 -0.16 123 0.03 0.10 0.07

2040 2.12 1.95 -0.17 117 0.03 0.10 0.07

2041 2.13 1.95 -0.18 110 0.03 0.10 0.07

2042 2.15 1.95 -0.20 102 0.03 0.10 0.07

2043 2.16 1.95 -0.21 93 0.03 0.10 0.07

2044 2.18 1.95 -0.23 84 0.03 0.10 0.07

2045 2.19 1.95 -0.24 74 0.03 0.10 0.07

2046 2.20 1.95 -0.25 64 0.03 0.10 0.07

2047 2.21 1.95 -0.26 54 0.03 0.10 0.07

2048 2.21 1.95 -0.26 43 0.03 0.10 0.07

2049 2.22 1.95 -0.27 31 0.03 0.10 0.07

2050 2.23 2.18 -0.05 20 0.03 0.33 0.30

2051 2.24 2.19 -0.05 18 0.03 0.34 0.31

2052 2.24 2.19 -0.05 16 0.03 0.34 0.31

2053 2.25 2.19 -0.06 14 0.03 0.34 0.31

2054 2.26 2.19 -0.07 11 0.03 0.34 0.31

2055 2.26 2.19 -0.07 9 0.03 0.34 0.31

2056 2.26 2.19 -0.07 6 0.03 0.34 0.31

2057 2.26 2.19 -0.07 3 0.03 0.34 0.31

2058 2.26 2.19 -0.07 ---- 0.03 0.34 0.31

2059 2.26 2.19 -0.06 ---- 0.03 0.34 0.31

2060 2.25 2.19 -0.06 ---- 0.03 0.34 0.31

2061 2.26 2.19 -0.06 ---- 0.03 0.34 0.31

2062 2.26 2.19 -0.06 ---- 0.03 0.34 0.31

2063 2.26 2.19 -0.07 ---- 0.03 0.34 0.31

2064 2.27 2.20 -0.07 ---- 0.03 0.34 0.31

2065 2.27 2.20 -0.07 ---- 0.03 0.34 0.31

2066 2.27 2.20 -0.07 ---- 0.03 0.34 0.31

2067 2.27 2.20 -0.07 ---- 0.03 0.34 0.31

2068 2.27 2.20 -0.08 ---- 0.03 0.34 0.31

2069 2.27 2.20 -0.08 ---- 0.03 0.34 0.31

2070 2.27 2.20 -0.08 ---- 0.03 0.34 0.31

2071 2.27 2.20 -0.08 ---- 0.03 0.34 0.31

2072 2.27 2.20 -0.07 ---- 0.03 0.34 0.31

2073 2.27 2.20 -0.07 ---- 0.03 0.34 0.31

2074 2.27 2.20 -0.07 ---- 0.03 0.34 0.32

2075 2.26 2.20 -0.07 ---- 0.03 0.34 0.32

2076 2.27 2.20 -0.07 ---- 0.03 0.34 0.32

2077 2.27 2.20 -0.07 ---- 0.03 0.34 0.32

2078 2.28 2.20 -0.08 ---- 0.03 0.34 0.32

2079 2.29 2.20 -0.09 ---- 0.03 0.34 0.32

2080 2.30 2.20 -0.10 ---- 0.03 0.34 0.32

2081 2.31 2.20 -0.11 ---- 0.03 0.35 0.32

2082 2.32 2.20 -0.12 ---- 0.03 0.35 0.32

2083 2.33 2.20 -0.13 ---- 0.03 0.35 0.32

2084 2.34 2.20 -0.13 ---- 0.03 0.35 0.32

2085 2.34 2.20 -0.14 ---- 0.03 0.35 0.32

2086 2.34 2.20 -0.14 ---- 0.03 0.35 0.32

2087 2.34 2.20 -0.14 ---- 0.03 0.35 0.32

2088 2.34 2.20 -0.14 ---- 0.03 0.35 0.32

2089 2.34 2.20 -0.13 ---- 0.03 0.35 0.32

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

2.22% 2.17% -0.05% 2057 0.02% 0.30% 0.28%

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

1 Under present law the year of DI Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2016. April 23, 2015

Summarized Rates: DI

Year of reserve 

depletion1

Summarized Rates: DI

2014 - 2088

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report

Table 1-DI. DI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

H.R. 1984, the Fair Adjustment and Income Revenue for Social Security Act , introduced by Representative DeFazio

Proposal Change from Present Law

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll
Percentage

of Payroll

Annual

Amounts

Accumulated as of 

End of Year

Gross Domestic 

Product

Without General

Fund Transfers

With Plan General

Fund Transfers

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,686.5 17,248.0 2,686.5 2,686.5

2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,622.1 17,479.5 2,622.1 2,622.1

2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,698.2 17,764.0 2,554.4 2,554.4

2017 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,785.7 18,073.7 2,485.9 2,485.9

2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,871.9 18,375.4 2,414.4 2,414.4

2019 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,949.0 18,640.8 2,333.7 2,333.7

2020 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,012.7 18,857.5 2,240.3 2,240.3

2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,063.9 19,025.1 2,135.5 2,135.5

2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,098.7 19,140.3 2,015.5 2,015.5

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,113.5 19,227.7 1,877.7 1,877.7

2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,108.9 19,280.8 1,722.0 1,722.0

2025 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,085.5 19,278.2 1,549.3 1,549.3

2026 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,044.7 19,215.2 1,361.3 1,361.3

2027 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,987.6 19,086.8 1,159.7 1,159.7

2028 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,916.0 18,893.0 946.6 946.6

2029 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,832.1 18,668.8 724.2 724.2

2030 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,737.7 18,445.7 494.4 494.4

2031 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,634.8 18,223.6 258.8 258.8

2032 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,525.2 18,005.7 19.3 19.3

2033 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,410.9 17,795.3 -222.4 -222.4

2034 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,292.5 17,587.9 -465.8 -465.8

2035 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,171.7 17,387.7 -709.2 -709.2

2036 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,049.8 17,192.4 -951.7 -951.7

2037 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,928.1 17,003.0 -1,192.0 -1,192.0

2038 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,807.7 16,820.9 -1,429.2 -1,429.2

2039 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,689.6 16,643.5 -1,662.3 -1,662.3

2040 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,574.5 16,469.7 -1,890.8 -1,890.8

2041 0.0 0.0 0.00 1,462.6 16,298.4 -2,114.6 -2,114.6

2042 0.0 0.0 0.00 1,354.0 16,127.3 -2,333.7 -2,333.7

2043 0.0 0.0 0.00 1,248.4 15,957.2 -2,548.3 -2,548.3

2044 0.0 0.0 0.00 1,145.4 15,789.1 -2,759.1 -2,759.1

2045 0.0 0.0 0.00 1,044.5 15,619.5 -2,966.4 -2,966.4

2046 0.0 0.0 0.00 945.7 15,450.2 -3,170.4 -3,170.4

2047 0.0 0.0 0.0 848.9 15,281.2 -3,371.2 -3,371.2

2048 0.0 0.0 0.0 754.1 15,112.3 -3,568.7 -3,568.7

2049 0.0 0.0 0.0 661.2 14,943.6 -3,763.2 -3,763.2

2050 0.0 0.0 0.0 569.9 14,774.2 -3,955.0 -3,955.0

2051 0.0 0.0 0.0 479.6 14,605.5 -4,144.6 -4,144.6

2052 0.0 0.0 0.0 390.0 14,436.3 -4,332.4 -4,332.4

2053 0.0 0.0 0.0 300.5 14,266.8 -4,518.9 -4,518.9

2054 0.0 0.0 0.0 210.7 14,097.9 -4,704.6 -4,704.6

2055 0.0 0.0 0.0 120.4 13,929.6 -4,889.6 -4,889.6

2056 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.4 13,761.9 -5,074.2 -5,074.2

2057 0.0 0.0 0.0 -62.6 13,595.7 -5,258.5 -5,258.5

2058 0.0 0.0 0.0 -155.3 13,431.2 -5,442.5 -5,442.5

2059 0.0 0.0 0.0 -248.8 13,268.8 -5,626.1 -5,626.1

2060 0.0 0.0 0.0 -343.1 13,108.0 -5,809.3 -5,809.3

2061 0.0 0.0 0.0 -438.1 12,949.7 -5,992.1 -5,992.1

2062 0.0 0.0 0.0 -533.7 12,794.2 -6,174.3 -6,174.3

2063 0.0 0.0 0.0 -630.0 12,640.5 -6,356.0 -6,356.0

2064 0.0 0.0 0.0 -726.8 12,489.1 -6,537.2 -6,537.2

2065 0.0 0.0 0.0 -824.3 12,339.8 -6,717.8 -6,717.8

2066 0.0 0.0 0.0 -922.4 12,192.7 -6,898.0 -6,898.0

2067 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,021.2 12,048.2 -7,077.8 -7,077.8

2068 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,120.6 11,905.9 -7,257.0 -7,257.0

2069 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,220.5 11,766.0 -7,435.7 -7,435.7

2070 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,320.8 11,627.9 -7,613.7 -7,613.7

2071 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,421.4 11,491.2 -7,791.0 -7,791.0

2072 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,522.0 11,356.6 -7,967.3 -7,967.3

2073 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,622.2 11,223.5 -8,142.2 -8,142.2

2074 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,722.0 11,091.9 -8,315.6 -8,315.6

2075 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,821.0 10,961.8 -8,487.3 -8,487.3

2076 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,919.0 10,833.2 -8,657.0 -8,657.0

2077 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,015.8 10,705.9 -8,824.7 -8,824.7

2078 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,111.4 10,579.6 -8,990.2 -8,990.2

2079 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,205.8 10,454.4 -9,153.5 -9,153.5

2080 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,299.2 10,329.9 -9,315.0 -9,315.0

2081 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,391.8 10,206.0 -9,474.8 -9,474.8

2082 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,483.9 10,082.9 -9,633.2 -9,633.2

2083 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,575.7 9,960.4 -9,790.5 -9,790.5

2084 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,667.4 9,838.6 -9,946.7 -9,946.7

2085 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,759.1 9,717.5 -10,102.3 -10,102.3

2086 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,851.1 9,597.6 -10,257.1 -10,257.1

2087 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,943.3 9,478.5 -10,411.4 -10,411.4

2088 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,035.9 9,360.5 -10,565.1 -10,565.1

2089 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3,128.7 9,243.6 -10,718.3 -10,718.3

Total 2014-2088 0.0

Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%

Office of the Chief Actuary

1

 Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption Social Security Administration

 that the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury. April 23, 2015

H.R. 1984, the Fair Adjustment and Income Revenue for Social Security Act , introduced by Representative DeFazio

Table 1a - General Fund Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Reserves, and Theoretical OASDI Reserves

Proposal General Fund Transfers Present Value in Billions as of 1-1-2014

Calendar

Year

Proposal

Total OASDI

Trust Fund

Reserves

 at End of Year

Theoretical Social Security1

with Borrowing Authority

Present Value in Billions as of 1-1- 2014 Net OASDI Trust Fund Reserves at End of Year
Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End Of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2016 0.0 143.9 143.9 -143.9 143.9 0.0 0.0

2017 0.0 156.0 156.0 -299.8 160.8 0.0 0.0

2018 0.0 157.7 157.7 -457.5 168.1 0.0 0.0

2019 0.0 157.8 157.8 -615.3 174.1 0.0 0.0

2020 0.0 157.1 157.1 -772.4 179.5 0.0 0.0

2021 0.0 156.0 156.0 -928.4 184.6 0.0 0.0

2022 0.0 154.7 154.7 -1,083.2 189.8 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 152.6 152.6 -1,235.8 194.6 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 151.1 151.1 -1,386.9 202.6 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 149.3 149.3 -1,536.2 211.1 0.0 0.0

2026 0.0 147.1 147.1 -1,683.3 220.1 0.0 0.0

2027 0.0 144.5 144.5 -1,827.9 229.6 0.0 0.0

2028 0.0 141.6 141.6 -1,969.4 239.8 0.0 0.0

2029 0.0 138.5 138.5 -2,107.9 244.3 0.0 0.0

2030 0.0 135.5 135.5 -2,243.4 248.7 0.0 0.0

2031 0.0 132.6 132.6 -2,376.0 253.2 0.0 0.0

2032 0.0 129.9 129.9 -2,505.9 257.6 0.0 0.0

2033 0.0 127.4 127.4 -2,633.3 262.0 0.0 0.0

2034 0.0 125.0 125.0 -2,758.2 266.4 0.0 0.0

2035 0.0 122.7 122.7 -2,880.9 270.9 0.0 0.0

2036 0.0 120.6 120.6 -3,001.5 275.4 0.0 0.0

2037 0.0 118.6 118.6 -3,120.1 279.9 0.0 0.0

2038 0.0 116.8 116.8 -3,236.8 284.4 0.0 0.0

2039 0.0 115.0 115.0 -3,351.9 289.0 0.0 0.0

2040 0.0 113.4 113.4 -3,465.3 293.5 0.0 0.0

2041 0.0 111.9 111.9 -3,577.2 298.1 0.0 0.0

2042 0.0 110.5 110.5 -3,687.7 302.7 0.0 0.0

2043 0.0 109.1 109.1 -3,796.7 307.2 0.0 0.0

2044 0.0 107.7 107.7 -3,904.5 311.7 0.0 0.0

2045 0.0 106.4 106.4 -4,010.9 316.2 0.0 0.0

2046 0.0 105.2 105.2 -4,116.1 320.7 0.0 0.0

2047 0.0 103.9 103.9 -4,220.0 325.1 0.0 0.0

2048 0.0 102.8 102.8 -4,322.8 329.5 0.0 0.0

2049 0.0 101.6 101.6 -4,424.4 333.9 0.0 0.0

2050 0.0 100.5 100.5 -4,524.9 338.2 0.0 0.0

2051 0.0 99.3 99.3 -4,624.2 342.4 0.0 0.0

2052 0.0 98.2 98.2 -4,722.4 346.6 0.0 0.0

2053 0.0 97.0 97.0 -4,819.4 350.8 0.0 0.0

2054 0.0 95.9 95.9 -4,915.3 354.8 0.0 0.0

2055 0.0 94.7 94.7 -5,010.0 358.8 0.0 0.0

2056 0.0 93.6 93.6 -5,103.6 362.8 0.0 0.0

2057 0.0 92.4 92.4 -5,196.0 366.6 0.0 0.0

2058 0.0 91.2 91.2 -5,287.2 370.4 0.0 0.0

2059 0.0 90.1 90.1 -5,377.3 374.2 0.0 0.0

2060 0.0 88.9 88.9 -5,466.2 377.9 0.0 0.0

2061 0.0 87.8 87.8 -5,554.0 381.5 0.0 0.0

2062 0.0 86.6 86.6 -5,640.6 385.0 0.0 0.0

2063 0.0 85.5 85.5 -5,726.1 388.5 0.0 0.0

2064 0.0 84.3 84.3 -5,810.4 392.0 0.0 0.0

2065 0.0 83.2 83.2 -5,893.5 395.4 0.0 0.0

2066 0.0 82.1 82.1 -5,975.6 398.7 0.0 0.0

2067 0.0 80.9 80.9 -6,056.5 402.0 0.0 0.0

2068 0.0 79.9 79.9 -6,136.4 405.3 0.0 0.0

2069 0.0 78.8 78.8 -6,215.2 408.5 0.0 0.0

2070 0.0 77.7 77.7 -6,292.9 411.7 0.0 0.0

2071 0.0 76.7 76.7 -6,369.6 414.8 0.0 0.0

2072 0.0 75.7 75.7 -6,445.3 417.9 0.0 0.0

2073 0.0 74.7 74.7 -6,520.0 421.0 0.0 0.0

2074 0.0 73.7 73.7 -6,593.7 424.0 0.0 0.0

2075 0.0 72.7 72.7 -6,666.3 427.0 0.0 0.0

2076 0.0 71.7 71.7 -6,738.1 429.9 0.0 0.0

2077 0.0 70.8 70.8 -6,808.9 432.8 0.0 0.0

2078 0.0 69.9 69.9 -6,878.8 435.7 0.0 0.0

2079 0.0 69.0 69.0 -6,947.7 438.6 0.0 0.0

2080 0.0 68.1 68.1 -7,015.8 441.4 0.0 0.0

2081 0.0 67.2 67.2 -7,083.0 444.2 0.0 0.0

2082 0.0 66.3 66.3 -7,149.3 446.9 0.0 0.0

2083 0.0 65.5 65.5 -7,214.8 449.6 0.0 0.0

2084 0.0 64.6 64.6 -7,279.4 452.3 0.0 0.0

2085 0.0 63.7 63.7 -7,343.1 454.9 0.0 0.0

2086 0.0 62.9 62.9 -7,406.0 457.5 0.0 0.0

2087 0.0 62.0 62.0 -7,468.0 460.0 0.0 0.0

2088 0.0 61.2 61.2 -7,529.2 462.5 0.0 0.0

0.0 7,529.2 7,529.2

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report.

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%

Note: Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would Office of the Chief Actuary

 nonetheless be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. Social Security Administration

Total 2014-88

1

 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table.

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2014

Table 1b - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1 (Present Value Dollars)

H.R. 1984, the Fair Adjustment and Income Revenue for Social Security Act , introduced by Representative DeFazio

April 23, 2015
Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2016 0.0 156.8 156.8 -160.3 160.3 0.0 0.0

2017 0.0 175.9 175.9 -347.1 186.8 0.0 0.0

2018 0.0 184.1 184.1 -550.1 203.0 0.0 0.0

2019 0.0 190.9 190.9 -769.0 218.8 0.0 0.0

2020 0.0 197.2 197.2 -1,004.1 235.1 0.0 0.0

2021 0.0 203.4 203.4 -1,255.9 251.9 0.0 0.0

2022 0.0 209.5 209.5 -1,525.7 269.7 0.0 0.0

2023 0.0 214.8 214.8 -1,814.1 288.4 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 221.6 221.6 -2,126.8 312.7 0.0 0.0

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report.

Note: Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would Office of the Chief Actuary

 nonetheless be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. Social Security Administration

Billions of Nominal Dollars

Table 1b.n - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1 (Nominal Dollars)

H.R. 1984, the Fair Adjustment and Income Revenue for Social Security Act , introduced by Representative DeFazio

1

 Effects of tax provisions on the On-Budget are not reflected in this table. April 23, 2015
Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

2014 4.92 4.92 4.46 4.92 4.92 4.46

2015 4.94 4.94 4.57 4.94 4.94 4.57

2016 4.97 4.97 4.59 4.97 4.97 5.40

2017 5.01 5.01 4.63 5.01 5.01 5.49

2018 5.06 5.06 4.67 5.07 5.07 5.54

2019 5.13 5.13 4.70 5.15 5.15 5.56

2020 5.21 5.21 4.71 5.24 5.24 5.57

2021 5.29 5.29 4.73 5.32 5.32 5.59

2022 5.38 5.38 4.75 5.43 5.43 5.60

2023 5.48 5.48 4.76 5.54 5.54 5.61

2024 5.57 5.57 4.76 5.64 5.64 5.61

2025 5.66 5.66 4.76 5.73 5.73 5.61

2026 5.74 5.74 4.76 5.82 5.82 5.61

2027 5.82 5.82 4.76 5.91 5.91 5.61

2028 5.89 5.89 4.76 5.99 5.99 5.61

2029 5.96 5.96 4.76 6.06 6.06 5.60

2030 6.01 6.01 4.76 6.12 6.12 5.60

2031 6.06 6.06 4.76 6.17 6.17 5.60

2032 6.09 6.09 4.76 6.22 6.22 5.60

2033 6.12 4.86 4.76 6.25 6.25 5.60

2034 6.14 4.75 4.75 6.28 6.28 5.60

2035 6.16 4.75 4.75 6.29 6.29 5.59

2036 6.16 4.75 4.75 6.31 6.31 5.59

2037 6.16 4.74 4.74 6.31 6.31 5.59

2038 6.16 4.74 4.74 6.30 6.30 5.58

2039 6.14 4.74 4.74 6.29 6.29 5.58

2040 6.12 4.73 4.73 6.28 6.28 5.57

2041 6.10 4.72 4.72 6.26 6.26 5.56

2042 6.08 4.72 4.72 6.24 6.24 5.56

2043 6.06 4.71 4.71 6.22 6.22 5.55

2044 6.05 4.71 4.71 6.20 6.20 5.54

2045 6.03 4.70 4.70 6.19 6.19 5.54

2046 6.02 4.69 4.69 6.18 6.18 5.53

2047 6.01 4.69 4.69 6.16 6.16 5.52

2048 5.99 4.68 4.68 6.15 6.15 5.51

2049 5.98 4.67 4.67 6.14 6.14 5.51

2050 5.97 4.67 4.67 6.13 6.13 5.50

2051 5.97 4.66 4.66 6.12 6.12 5.49

2052 5.96 4.66 4.66 6.11 6.11 5.49

2053 5.96 4.65 4.65 6.11 6.11 5.48

2054 5.97 4.64 4.64 6.12 6.12 5.47

2055 5.97 4.64 4.64 6.12 6.12 5.47

2056 5.98 4.63 4.63 6.13 6.13 5.46

2057 5.99 4.63 4.63 6.14 5.97 5.45

2058 6.00 4.62 4.62 6.14 5.45 5.45

2059 6.00 4.62 4.62 6.15 5.44 5.44

2060 6.01 4.61 4.61 6.16 5.43 5.43

2061 6.02 4.60 4.60 6.17 5.43 5.43

2062 6.03 4.60 4.60 6.18 5.42 5.42

2063 6.04 4.59 4.59 6.18 5.41 5.41

2064 6.04 4.59 4.59 6.19 5.41 5.41

2065 6.05 4.58 4.58 6.20 5.40 5.40

2066 6.06 4.57 4.57 6.21 5.39 5.39

2067 6.07 4.57 4.57 6.21 5.39 5.39

2068 6.07 4.56 4.56 6.22 5.38 5.38

2069 6.08 4.56 4.56 6.23 5.38 5.38

2070 6.09 4.55 4.55 6.24 5.37 5.37

2071 6.10 4.55 4.55 6.25 5.36 5.36

2072 6.10 4.54 4.54 6.25 5.36 5.36

2073 6.10 4.54 4.54 6.25 5.35 5.35

2074 6.10 4.53 4.53 6.25 5.34 5.34

2075 6.10 4.52 4.52 6.25 5.34 5.34

2076 6.09 4.52 4.52 6.24 5.33 5.33

2077 6.09 4.51 4.51 6.24 5.33 5.33

2078 6.08 4.51 4.51 6.23 5.32 5.32

2079 6.07 4.50 4.50 6.23 5.32 5.32

2080 6.07 4.50 4.50 6.22 5.31 5.31

2081 6.07 4.49 4.49 6.22 5.31 5.31

2082 6.07 4.49 4.49 6.22 5.30 5.30

2083 6.07 4.49 4.49 6.22 5.30 5.30

2084 6.08 4.48 4.48 6.23 5.29 5.29

2085 6.08 4.48 4.48 6.24 5.29 5.29

2086 6.09 4.48 4.48 6.25 5.29 5.29

2087 6.11 4.47 4.47 6.26 5.28 5.28

2088 6.12 4.47 4.47 6.27 5.28 5.28

Table 1c - Present Law and Proposal Cost, Expenditures, and Income: As Percent of Gross Domestic Product

April 23, 2015

Social Security Administration

Present Law OASDI Proposal OASDI

Calendar

Year

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

H.R. 1984, the Fair Adjustment and Income Revenue for Social Security Act , introduced by Representative DeFazio
Year

Present Law OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Total Change

Through

End of Year

Proposal OASDI

Trust Fund Reserves /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) = cumulative sum(4) (6) = (1)+(5)

2014 2,686.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,686.5

2015 2,622.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,622.1

2016 2,554.4 143.9 0.0 143.9 143.9 2,698.2

2017 2,485.9 155.6 -0.3 156.0 299.8 2,785.7

2018 2,414.4 159.0 1.3 157.7 457.5 2,871.9

2019 2,333.7 160.9 3.1 157.8 615.3 2,949.0

2020 2,240.3 162.1 5.0 157.1 772.4 3,012.7

2021 2,135.5 162.9 6.8 156.0 928.4 3,063.9

2022 2,015.5 163.4 8.7 154.7 1,083.2 3,098.7

2023 1,877.7 163.1 10.5 152.6 1,235.8 3,113.5

2024 1,722.0 163.4 12.3 151.1 1,386.9 3,108.9

2025 1,549.3 163.3 14.0 149.3 1,536.2 3,085.5

2026 1,361.3 162.7 15.5 147.1 1,683.3 3,044.7

2027 1,159.7 161.5 17.0 144.5 1,827.9 2,987.6

2028 946.6 159.8 18.3 141.6 1,969.4 2,916.0

2029 724.2 157.9 19.4 138.5 2,107.9 2,832.1

2030 494.4 155.9 20.5 135.5 2,243.4 2,737.7

2031 258.8 154.0 21.4 132.6 2,376.0 2,634.8

2032 19.3 152.1 22.2 129.9 2,505.9 2,525.2

2033 -222.4 150.3 22.9 127.4 2,633.3 2,410.9

2034 -465.8 148.4 23.5 125.0 2,758.2 2,292.5

2035 -709.2 146.7 24.0 122.7 2,880.9 2,171.7

2036 -951.7 145.0 24.4 120.6 3,001.5 2,049.8

2037 -1,192.0 143.3 24.7 118.6 3,120.1 1,928.1

2038 -1,429.2 141.7 25.0 116.8 3,236.8 1,807.7

2039 -1,662.3 140.1 25.1 115.0 3,351.9 1,689.6

2040 -1,890.8 138.6 25.2 113.4 3,465.3 1,574.5

2041 -2,114.6 137.1 25.2 111.9 3,577.2 1,462.6

2042 -2,333.7 135.5 25.1 110.5 3,687.7 1,354.0

2043 -2,548.3 134.0 24.9 109.1 3,796.7 1,248.4

2044 -2,759.1 132.5 24.7 107.74 3,904.5 1,145.4

2045 -2,966.4 130.9 24.5 106.44 4,010.9 1,044.5

2046 -3,170.4 129.4 24.2 105.17 4,116.1 945.7

2047 -3,371.2 127.8 23.9 103.95 4,220.0 848.9

2048 -3,568.7 126.3 23.5 102.77 4,322.8 754.1

2049 -3,763.2 124.7 23.1 101.61 4,424.4 661.2

2050 -3,955.0 123.2 22.7 100.5 4,524.9 569.9

2051 -4,144.6 121.7 22.4 99.3 4,624.2 479.6

2052 -4,332.4 120.2 22.0 98.2 4,722.4 390.0

2053 -4,518.9 118.6 21.6 97.0 4,819.4 300.5

2054 -4,704.6 117.1 21.2 95.9 4,915.3 210.7

2055 -4,889.6 115.6 20.9 94.7 5,010.0 120.4

2056 -5,074.2 114.1 20.5 93.6 5,103.6 29.4

2057 -5,258.5 112.6 20.2 92.4 5,196.0 -62.6

2058 -5,442.5 111.1 19.9 91.2 5,287.2 -155.3

2059 -5,626.1 109.7 19.6 90.1 5,377.3 -248.8

2060 -5,809.3 108.2 19.3 88.9 5,466.2 -343.1

2061 -5,992.1 106.8 19.1 87.8 5,554.0 -438.1

2062 -6,174.3 105.4 18.8 86.6 5,640.6 -533.7

2063 -6,356.0 104.1 18.6 85.5 5,726.1 -630.0

2064 -6,537.2 102.7 18.4 84.3 5,810.4 -726.8

2065 -6,717.8 101.4 18.2 83.2 5,893.5 -824.3

2066 -6,898.0 100.1 18.0 82.1 5,975.6 -922.4

2067 -7,077.8 98.8 17.9 80.9 6,056.5 -1,021.2

2068 -7,257.0 97.6 17.7 79.9 6,136.4 -1,120.6

2069 -7,435.7 96.3 17.6 78.8 6,215.2 -1,220.5

2070 -7,613.7 95.1 17.4 77.7 6,292.9 -1,320.8

2071 -7,791.0 93.9 17.2 76.7 6,369.6 -1,421.4

2072 -7,967.3 92.8 17.1 75.7 6,445.3 -1,522.0

2073 -8,142.2 91.6 16.9 74.7 6,520.0 -1,622.2

2074 -8,315.6 90.5 16.8 73.7 6,593.7 -1,722.0

2075 -8,487.3 89.4 16.7 72.7 6,666.3 -1,821.0

2076 -8,657.0 88.2 16.5 71.7 6,738.1 -1,919.0

2077 -8,824.7 87.2 16.4 70.8 6,808.9 -2,015.8

2078 -8,990.2 86.1 16.2 69.9 6,878.8 -2,111.4

2079 -9,153.5 85.0 16.0 69.0 6,947.7 -2,205.8

2080 -9,315.0 84.0 15.9 68.1 7,015.8 -2,299.2

2081 -9,474.8 82.9 15.7 67.2 7,083.0 -2,391.8

2082 -9,633.2 81.9 15.5 66.3 7,149.3 -2,483.9

2083 -9,790.5 80.8 15.4 65.5 7,214.8 -2,575.7

2084 -9,946.7 79.8 15.2 64.6 7,279.4 -2,667.4

2085 -10,102.3 78.8 15.1 63.7 7,343.1 -2,759.1

2086 -10,257.1 77.8 14.9 62.9 7,406.0 -2,851.1

2087 -10,411.4 76.8 14.8 62.0 7,468.0 -2,943.3

2088 -10,565.1 75.8 14.6 61.2 7,529.2 -3,035.9

Total 2014-2088 8,837.4 1,308.2 7,529.2

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%. April 23, 2015

(Billions of Dollars, Present Value on 1-1-2014)

H.R. 1984, the Fair Adjustment and Income Revenue for Social Security Act , introduced by Representative DeFazio

Table 1d - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Reserves / Unfunded Obligation