SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

September 5, 2023 

The Honorable Jodey Arrington 

House of Representatives 

Washington, D.C. 20515 

Dear Representative Arrington: 

I am writing in response to your request for our estimate of the financial effects on the Social 

Security Trust Funds of the “Equal Treatment of Public Servants Act of 2023,” which you 

introduced today. This Bill would generally replace the current-law windfall elimination 

provision (WEP) with a new formula that you have referred to as the “Public Servant Fairness 

Formula” (PSF) for individuals becoming eligible for OASDI benefits in 2068 or later.

Individuals becoming eligible after 2024, but before 2068, would receive the higher of their 

benefit using the PSF and their benefit using the current-law WEP. The proposal would also 

provide for a rebate payment starting 270 days after enactment for individuals affected by the 

current-law WEP. We have enjoyed working with Mimi Bair of your staff in developing this 

analysis. Our analysis and estimates provided for this proposal reflect the efforts of many in the 

Office of the Chief Actuary, but particularly Jacqueline Walsh, Chris Chaplain, Daniel 

Nickerson, Kyle Burkhalter, Anna Kirjusina, and Karen Glenn. 

The balance of this letter provides our understanding of the intent of the sections of the Bill 

with direct effects on Social Security program cost, followed by estimates of the OASDI 

program cost effects assuming enactment of the Bill in January 2024. Over the period 2023 

through 2032, we estimate the program benefit cost for the OASDI program would be 

increased by $25.2 billion. The net cash flow effect on OASDI would be slightly less (a 

reduction of $23.9 billion), because the additional income tax on the increased benefit 

payments would be mostly directed to the OASI and DI Trust Funds, partially offsetting the 

additional benefit cost. We estimate that enactment of the Bill would result in a negligible (i.e., 

less than 0.005 percent of taxable payroll) increase in the OASDI actuarial balance over the 75-

year projection period as a whole. All estimates reflect the intermediate assumptions of the 

2023 Trustees Report. 

Bill Specifications

The proposal would, ultimately, replace the current complex WEP with a more 

straightforward approach. The PSF provides retired-worker and disabled-worker beneficiaries 

(and their dependents) with a modified benefit computed reflecting all past earnings 

(including earnings in employment that was not covered under the OASDI program in our 
Page 2 – The Honorable Jodey Arrington

records starting with 1978), then multiplied by the ratio of the average indexed monthly 

earnings (AIME) computed without non-covered earnings to a modified average indexed 

monthly earnings (AIME′) that includes both covered and non-covered earnings in our 

records. As with OASDI covered earnings, potential beneficiaries would be asked to review 

the non-covered earnings we have in our records so that they would have the opportunity to 

make corrections. 

Another way to describe the new PSF approach is that beneficiaries will receive a benefit that 

reflects the replacement rate applicable for a worker with the same career earnings, where all 

earnings had been covered. Effectively, the PSF formula would compute the worker’s PIA as 

the ratio of PIA based on all earnings (covered and non-covered) to the AIME′ computed 

based on all earnings, multiplied by the AIME based on covered earnings only. These two 

ways of describing the new approach are mathematically equivalent.

Individuals who become eligible for retired-worker and disabled-worker benefits after 2024, 

but before 2068, who have non-covered earnings (earnings that were not covered under the 

OASDI program), would have a benefit level computed under the current WEP provision, and 

in addition a benefit level computed under the new PSF provision. The benefit level provided 

would be the higher of these two computations. 

Individuals who become eligible for retired-worker and disabled-worker benefits in 2068

or later, would have their benefit level computed using new PSF provision. Importantly, 

for such workers, the proposal would eliminate the requirement for receipt of a pension 

based on earnings not covered by the OASDI program in order to apply the new PSF. 

However, because SSA does not have foreign earnings in workers’ records, the PSF would 

not apply for disabled-worker and retired-worker beneficiaries who are entitled to receive 

periodic payments based on foreign employment not covered under a totalization 

agreement, regardless of when they become eligible for benefits. Instead, the current-law

WEP would be utilized for such beneficiaries, with regard to any periodic payments 

received based on the foreign and/or any domestic non-covered earnings.

Retired or disabled workers and their auxiliary beneficiaries who become eligible before 

January 2025 or receive a foreign pension will receive a monthly “rebate payment” for each 

month they receive a Social Security benefit that is reduced by the current-law WEP, starting in 

October 2024. The amount of the rebate will be $100 for each month of benefit entitlement 

affected by the WEP in 2024 for retired-worker and disabled-worker beneficiaries and $50 for 

each month of benefit entitlement affected by the WEP in 2024 for spouse and child auxiliary 

beneficiaries. The level of rebate amounts for months of entitlement affected by the WEP in 

years after 2024 will be increased by the annual cost of living adjustments.

The rebate amount would not be subject to benefit adjustments, such as for the GPO, RET, 

early/late claiming, and dual entitlement. Further specifications relating to the rebate include: 

(1) individuals whose benefits are offset (to zero) due to the government pension offset (GPO), 

retirement earnings test (RET), workers’ compensation (WC) offset, family maximum, etc. 

still receive a rebate; (2) if a worker’s benefit is suspended, then a spouse or child in receipt of 
Page 3 – The Honorable Jodey Arrington 

an auxiliary benefit on the worker’s account would still receive the rebate; (3) individuals 

whose benefits are suspended due to incarceration or return to work would not receive the 

rebate; and (4) individuals with an outstanding overpayment would be eligible for the rebate 

but would have it withheld to help repay the overpayment. 

OASDI Program Cost Effects

The proposal will result in added program cost for workers newly eligible for an OASDI benefit 

after 2024 and before 2068, whose benefit amount would be reduced less by the PSF than by 

the WEP. As noted above, most of the income tax on the increased benefit payments would be 

directed to the OASI and DI Trust Funds, which would partially offset the additional benefit 

cost. The increase in OASDI program benefit cost is estimated at $1.6 billion in total for 

calendar years 2023 through 2032 for those newly eligible for OASDI benefits after 2024 who 

are advantaged by the alternative benefit computation using the PSF. The change in OASDI

cash flow due to this formula change, net of OASDI revenue from income taxation of benefits, 

is estimated to be a reduction of $1.5 billion in total for calendar years 2023 through 2032. 

The amount of rebate payments for months beginning at least 270 days after enactment applied 

for beneficiaries who are affected by the WEP is estimated to be $23.7 billion in total for 

calendar years 2023 through 2032. For these estimates, we are assuming enactment of the Bill 

in January 2024. The change in OASDI cash flow due to these rebate payments, net of OASDI 

revenue from income taxation of benefits, is estimated to be a reduction of $22.4 billion in total 

for calendar years 2023 through 2032. 

Combining the effects described in the previous two paragraphs, the benefit cost for both the 

formula change and the rebate payments is estimated to be $25.2 billion in total for calendar 

years 2023 through 2032. The change in OASDI cash flow, net of OASDI revenue from income 

taxation of these benefits, is estimated to be a reduction of $23.9 billion in total for calendar 

years 2023 through 2032. 

The PSF does not require receipt of a pension based on non-covered earnings and eliminates 

most exemptions from adjustments based on non-covered earnings for workers becoming 

newly eligible for OASDI benefits after December 2067. Therefore, our estimate reflects small 

benefit reductions from the PSF for a relatively large number of workers who would not be 

reduced by the WEP. 

Over the long-range period, the net effect of enacting the proposal on the 75-year actuarial 

balance would be a negligible (i.e., less than 0.005 percent of payroll) increase in the OASDI 

actuarial balance. Table 1, attached, indicates that the net effect of the changes in the Bill 

would reduce (worsen) annual balances for the OASDI program through 2073. Thereafter, 

changes would increase (improve) annual balances due to the application of the PSF formula to 

all worker beneficiaries becoming eligible after 2067 who had non-covered earnings. These 

estimates do not reflect the implications of any change in administrative expenses necessary to 

implement the provisions of this Bill. Tables 1b and 1b.n show the effects of enacting the 

proposal in present value dollar and nominal dollar amounts, respectively. 
Page 4 – The Honorable Jodey Arrington 

Our estimates for the proposal reflect extensive innovative analysis of data for individuals born 

in 1950 with experience through May of 2018, including SSA records of earnings not covered 

by OASDI back to 1978, with adjustments for over-recording of non-covered earnings for 

years 1978 through 1981. This analysis has allowed us to model the potential effect of the 

proposal for 2018 as if it were fully in effect for all retired and disabled workers at that time. 

Based on these results, we are able to model the expected effects of the PSF.

Effects of the Proposal on Beneficiaries

In order to meaningfully illustrate the effects of the new PSF on workers who will become 

eligible starting in 2068 under this proposal, we provide here estimates of the effects of the PSF 

for all current beneficiaries in 2018, assuming the new approach were fully phased in and had 

applied for them since their initial benefit eligibility.

If applied to them, the PSF formula would affect the benefits of roughly 1.6 million retiredworker and disabled-worker beneficiaries in 2018 whose primary benefit is reduced under the 

current WEP and are not receiving a pension based on foreign employment. About 1.1 million 

(about 69 percent) of these beneficiaries would receive a higher average benefit (on average, 

$74 higher) with application of the PSF. Under the PSF, this group would receive an average 

benefit of $548, while under the current WEP their average benefit is $474. The remaining 0.5 

million (about 31 percent) of these beneficiaries would receive a lower average benefit (on 

average, $55 lower) with application of the PSF. For these beneficiaries, the PSF would provide 

an average benefit of $588, while under the current WEP their average benefit is $643. 

For 2018, we estimate that there are roughly 18 million retired-worker and disabled-worker 

beneficiaries with some non-covered earnings who are not reduced under the current WEP 

(assuming adjustments for erroneous recording of non-covered earnings for some workers in 

years 1978 through 1981). Again, we illustrate how this group would be affected if the new 

PSF had been in effect for them since their initial benefit eligibility. We estimate that for about 

4.5 million (about 25 percent) of these beneficiaries in 2018, the new PSF would not change 

their primary benefit. For the other 13.5 million beneficiaries, the average benefit under the PSF 

would be $1,453 per month (about $29 less than would be payable under current law). For the 

half of this 18 million that would be least affected by the PSF, the average primary benefit 

under the PSF would be $1,487, less than $1 per month below the level payable under current 

law. For the half that would be most affected by the PSF, the average benefit under the PSF 

would be $1,402 (about $43 lower than their average benefit payable under current law). About 

52 percent of the 18 million, or roughly 9 million beneficiaries, qualify now for exemption 

from the current WEP because they have 30 or more years of substantial OASDI covered 

earnings. Because these 9 million retired worker or disabled worker beneficiaries have 

relatively few years of non-covered earnings, their reduction under the new approach would be 

relatively small if the PSF were applicable for them. In addition, more than 75 percent of these 

18 million workers have fewer than 5 years with any non-covered earnings. 

Workers who become eligible between 2025 and 2067 would receive the higher of the currentlaw WEP and the PSF. In 2018, were this approach fully phased in, 1.1 million beneficiaries 

whose primary benefit is reduced under the current WEP would receive a higher benefit. 
Page 5 – The Honorable Jodey Arrington

Additionally, we estimate monthly rebate payments would have been provided to roughly 1.8

million retired worker and disabled worker beneficiaries and 175 thousand auxiliary 

beneficiaries whose benefit was reduced under the WEP in 2018, assuming the rebate payments 

had started in 2018 and that the other provisions of the proposal applied for beneficiaries 

becoming newly eligible after 2018.

We hope these estimates will be helpful. Please let us know if we may provide further assistance.

Sincerely,

Stephen C. Goss, ASA, MAAA 

Chief Actuary

Enclosures
Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

The "Equal Treatment of Public Servants Act of 2023," introduced by Representative Arrington

Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2023 14.53 13.29 -1.24 204 0.00 0.00 0.00

2024 14.87 12.89 -1.99 187 0.00 0.00 -0.00

2025 15.07 12.97 -2.10 168 0.03 0.00 -0.03

2026 15.26 13.08 -2.18 149 0.03 0.00 -0.02

2027 15.41 13.10 -2.31 131 0.03 0.00 -0.02

2028 15.58 13.13 -2.45 113 0.03 0.00 -0.02

2029 15.74 13.16 -2.58 95 0.03 0.00 -0.02

2030 15.90 13.19 -2.71 77 0.02 0.00 -0.02

2031 16.03 13.21 -2.81 60 0.02 0.00 -0.02

2032 16.17 13.24 -2.93 42 0.02 0.00 -0.02

2033 16.29 13.25 -3.04 24 0.02 0.00 -0.02

2034 16.41 13.26 -3.15 6 0.02 0.00 -0.02

2035 16.50 13.27 -3.23 ---- 0.02 0.00 -0.02

2036 16.58 13.28 -3.30 ---- 0.02 0.00 -0.02

2037 16.66 13.28 -3.38 ---- 0.02 0.00 -0.02

2038 16.72 13.29 -3.43 ---- 0.02 0.00 -0.02

2039 16.77 13.29 -3.47 ---- 0.02 0.00 -0.02

2040 16.80 13.30 -3.50 ---- 0.02 0.00 -0.02

2041 16.83 13.30 -3.52 ---- 0.02 0.00 -0.02

2042 16.84 13.30 -3.53 ---- 0.02 0.00 -0.02

2043 16.85 13.30 -3.54 ---- 0.02 0.00 -0.02

2044 16.86 13.31 -3.56 ---- 0.02 0.00 -0.02

2045 16.88 13.31 -3.57 ---- 0.02 0.00 -0.02

2046 16.90 13.31 -3.59 ---- 0.02 0.00 -0.02

2047 16.92 13.31 -3.61 ---- 0.02 0.00 -0.02

2048 16.94 13.32 -3.63 ---- 0.02 0.00 -0.01

2049 16.97 13.32 -3.65 ---- 0.02 0.00 -0.01

2050 17.00 13.32 -3.68 ---- 0.02 0.00 -0.01

2051 17.03 13.33 -3.71 ---- 0.01 0.00 -0.01

2052 17.07 13.33 -3.75 ---- 0.01 0.00 -0.01

2053 17.12 13.33 -3.79 ---- 0.01 0.00 -0.01

2054 17.18 13.34 -3.84 ---- 0.01 0.00 -0.01

2055 17.25 13.34 -3.90 ---- 0.01 0.00 -0.01

2056 17.32 13.35 -3.97 ---- 0.01 0.00 -0.01

2057 17.39 13.35 -4.04 ---- 0.01 0.00 -0.01

2058 17.47 13.36 -4.11 ---- 0.01 0.00 -0.01

2059 17.55 13.37 -4.19 ---- 0.01 0.00 -0.01

2060 17.63 13.37 -4.26 ---- 0.01 0.00 -0.01

2061 17.71 13.38 -4.33 ---- 0.01 0.00 -0.01

2062 17.77 13.39 -4.39 ---- 0.01 0.00 -0.01

2063 17.84 13.39 -4.45 ---- 0.01 0.00 -0.01

2064 17.90 13.40 -4.50 ---- 0.01 0.00 -0.01

2065 17.96 13.40 -4.56 ---- 0.01 0.00 -0.01

2066 18.02 13.41 -4.61 ---- 0.02 0.00 -0.01

2067 18.07 13.41 -4.66 ---- 0.02 0.00 -0.01

2068 18.13 13.42 -4.72 ---- 0.01 0.00 -0.01

2069 18.19 13.42 -4.77 ---- 0.01 0.00 -0.01

2070 18.24 13.42 -4.82 ---- 0.01 0.00 -0.01

2071 18.29 13.43 -4.87 ---- 0.01 0.00 -0.01

2072 18.34 13.43 -4.91 ---- 0.01 0.00 -0.01

2073 18.38 13.44 -4.95 ---- 0.00 0.00 -0.00

2074 18.42 13.44 -4.98 ---- -0.00 -0.00 0.00

2075 18.45 13.44 -5.01 ---- -0.01 -0.00 0.01

2076 18.47 13.44 -5.03 ---- -0.01 -0.00 0.01

2077 18.48 13.45 -5.04 ---- -0.02 -0.00 0.02

2078 18.48 13.45 -5.03 ---- -0.02 -0.00 0.02

2079 18.46 13.45 -5.02 ---- -0.03 -0.00 0.03

2080 18.43 13.44 -4.99 ---- -0.03 -0.00 0.03

2081 18.40 13.44 -4.96 ---- -0.04 -0.00 0.03

2082 18.35 13.44 -4.91 ---- -0.04 -0.00 0.04

2083 18.30 13.44 -4.86 ---- -0.04 -0.00 0.04

2084 18.24 13.43 -4.81 ---- -0.05 -0.00 0.04

2085 18.18 13.43 -4.75 ---- -0.05 -0.00 0.05

2086 18.11 13.43 -4.68 ---- -0.05 -0.00 0.05

2087 18.03 13.42 -4.61 ---- -0.06 -0.00 0.05

2088 17.96 13.42 -4.54 ---- -0.06 -0.00 0.06

2089 17.89 13.41 -4.48 ---- -0.06 -0.00 0.06

2090 17.83 13.41 -4.42 ---- -0.06 -0.00 0.06

2091 17.78 13.41 -4.37 ---- -0.07 -0.00 0.06

2092 17.73 13.40 -4.33 ---- -0.07 -0.00 0.06

2093 17.70 13.40 -4.30 ---- -0.07 -0.00 0.07

2094 17.68 13.40 -4.28 ---- -0.07 -0.00 0.07

2095 17.67 13.40 -4.27 ---- -0.07 -0.00 0.07

2096 17.67 13.40 -4.27 ---- -0.08 -0.00 0.07

2097 17.68 13.40 -4.27 ---- -0.08 -0.00 0.07

2098 17.69 13.40 -4.29 ---- -0.08 -0.00 0.08

Summarized Rates: OASDI Summarized Rates: OASDI

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

2023 - 2097 17.38% 13.78% -3.61% 2034 -0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Office of the Chief Actuary

Note: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report. Social Security Administration 1

Under current law the year of combined Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. September 5, 2023

Year of reserve 

depletion1

Proposal Change from Current Law

Expressed as a percentage of current-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of current-law

taxable payroll
Table 1b - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI (Present Value Dollars)

The "Equal Treatment of Public Servants Act of 2023," introduced by Representative Arrington

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Cash Flow

Change in Total

Federal Debt

 Subject to Limit 

End Of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 -2.5 -2.5 2.9 -2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2026 0.0 -2.5 -2.5 5.4 -2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2027 0.0 -2.5 -2.5 7.9 -2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2028 0.0 -2.5 -2.5 10.4 -2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2029 0.0 -2.5 -2.5 12.9 -2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2030 0.0 -2.5 -2.5 15.5 -2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2031 0.0 -2.5 -2.5 18.0 -3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2032 0.0 -2.5 -2.5 20.5 -3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2033 0.0 -2.5 -2.5 23.0 -3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2034 0.0 -2.5 -2.5 25.5 -3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2035 0.0 -2.4 -2.4 27.9 -3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2036 0.0 -2.4 -2.4 30.2 -3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2037 0.0 -2.3 -2.3 32.5 -3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2038 0.0 -2.2 -2.2 34.7 -3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2039 0.0 -2.1 -2.1 36.9 -3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2040 0.0 -2.1 -2.1 38.9 -3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2041 0.0 -2.0 -2.0 40.9 -3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2042 0.0 -1.9 -1.9 42.8 -3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2043 0.0 -1.8 -1.8 44.6 -3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2044 0.0 -1.7 -1.7 46.3 -3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2045 0.0 -1.6 -1.6 47.9 -3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2046 0.0 -1.6 -1.6 49.5 -3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2047 0.0 -1.5 -1.5 51.0 -3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2048 0.0 -1.4 -1.4 52.4 -3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2049 0.0 -1.4 -1.4 53.8 -3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2050 0.0 -1.3 -1.3 55.1 -3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2051 0.0 -1.3 -1.3 56.4 -3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2052 0.0 -1.3 -1.3 57.7 -3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2053 0.0 -1.2 -1.2 58.9 -3.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2054 0.0 -1.2 -1.2 60.2 -3.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2055 0.0 -1.2 -1.2 61.4 -3.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2056 0.0 -1.2 -1.2 62.6 -4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2057 0.0 -1.2 -1.2 63.8 -4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2058 0.0 -1.2 -1.2 65.0 -4.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2059 0.0 -1.2 -1.2 66.2 -4.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2060 0.0 -1.2 -1.2 67.4 -4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2061 0.0 -1.2 -1.2 68.6 -4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2062 0.0 -1.2 -1.2 69.7 -4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2063 0.0 -1.2 -1.2 70.9 -4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2064 0.0 -1.2 -1.2 72.1 -4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2065 0.0 -1.2 -1.2 73.3 -4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2066 0.0 -1.2 -1.2 74.4 -4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2067 0.0 -1.2 -1.2 75.6 -4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2068 0.0 -1.1 -1.1 76.7 -4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2069 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 77.8 -4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2070 0.0 -0.9 -0.9 78.7 -4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2071 0.0 -0.7 -0.7 79.4 -4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2072 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 79.8 -4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2073 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 79.9 -3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2074 0.0 0.3 0.3 79.5 -3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2075 0.0 0.7 0.7 78.8 -2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2076 0.0 1.1 1.1 77.7 -2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2077 0.0 1.4 1.4 76.3 -2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2078 0.0 1.7 1.7 74.6 -1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2079 0.0 2.0 2.0 72.7 -1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2080 0.0 2.2 2.2 70.4 -1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2081 0.0 2.5 2.5 67.9 -0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2082 0.0 2.7 2.7 65.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2083 0.0 3.0 3.0 62.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2084 0.0 3.2 3.2 59.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2085 0.0 3.4 3.4 55.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2086 0.0 3.6 3.6 52.1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2087 0.0 3.7 3.7 48.4 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2088 0.0 3.9 3.9 44.5 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2089 0.0 4.0 4.0 40.5 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2090 0.0 4.2 4.2 36.3 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2091 0.0 4.3 4.3 32.0 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2092 0.0 4.4 4.4 27.6 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2093 0.0 4.5 4.5 23.1 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2094 0.0 4.6 4.6 18.4 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

2095 0.0 4.7 4.7 13.7 3.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2096 0.0 4.8 4.8 9.0 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2097 0.0 4.9 4.9 4.1 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total 2023-2097 0.0 -4.1 -4.1

Notes: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report.

 Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.3%.

 Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would nonetheless Office of the Chief Actuary

 be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. Social Security Administration

 Budget cash flows do not reflect effects on the Medicare Hospital Insurance Trust Fund of income taxation of OASDI benefits.

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2023

September 5, 2023
Table 1b.n - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI (Nominal Dollars)

The "Equal Treatment of Public Servants Act of 2023," introduced by Representative Arrington

Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year1

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance1

Change in 

Annual On 

Budget Cash 

Flow

Change in Total

Federal Debt 

Subject to Limit 

End of Year1

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance1

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2024 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

2025 0.0 -2.6 -2.6 3.1 -2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

2026 0.0 -2.7 -2.7 5.9 -2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2027 0.0 -2.8 -2.8 8.9 -3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2028 0.0 -2.9 -2.9 12.1 -3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

2029 0.0 -3.0 -3.0 15.4 -3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2030 0.0 -3.1 -3.1 19.0 -3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2031 0.0 -3.2 -3.2 22.7 -3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2032 0.0 -3.3 -3.3 26.7 -4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total 2023-2032 0.0 -23.9 -23.9 0.0

Notes: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report.

 Changes reflect the budget scoring convention that presumes benefits not payable after reserve depletion would nonetheless

 be paid, based on transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury resulting in additional borrowing from the public. Office of the Chief Actuary

 Budget cash flows do not reflect effects on the Medicare Hospital Insurance Trust Fund of income taxation of OASDI benefits. Social Security Administration

1

 Includes the effect of accumulated interest income.

Billions of Nominal Dollars

September 5, 2023