SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE, MD 21235-0001

SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

February 24, 2016

The Honorable Sherrod Brown

United States Senate

Washington, D.C. 20515

Dear Senator Brown:

I am writing in response to your request for estimates of the financial effects on Social Security 

of S. 1651, The Social Security Fairness Act of 2015, which you introduced on June 23, 2015

along with other members of the Senate. This Bill (hereafter referred to as the proposal) would 

eliminate the Government Pension Offset (GPO) and Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) 

from the Social Security Act. We have enjoyed working closely with Gideon Bragin of your 

staff in evaluating this proposal.

The enclosed table provides estimates of the effects of this provision on the cost, income, and 

combined trust fund reserves for the Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI)

program. Assuming enactment of the proposal effective for all benefits payable for entitlement 

in January 2017 and later (without regard for when the beneficiary became initially entitled), we 

estimate the increase in benefit obligations for the OASDI program would reduce the OASDI 

long-range actuarial balance by 0.13 percent of taxable payroll and would change the projected 

year of reserve depletion for the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds from 2034 under current 

law to 2033 under the proposal. These estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of 

the 2015 Trustees Report.

The GPO and WEP provisions reduce OASI and DI benefits for most workers who receive a 

pension based on earnings in employment that was not covered under the Social Security 

program. About one fourth of State and Local government employees are currently not covered 

under Social Security. Most federal government employees who were hired before 1984 were 

also not covered. Workers not covered incur no OASDI payroll tax liability and also earn no 

credit toward benefits under the program from the non-covered earnings. In addition, employers 

of workers not covered also pay no OASDI payroll tax based on their earnings. 

As shown in the enclosed table, the cost of benefits under the OASDI program would be 

increased by 0.14 percent of taxable payroll over the next 75 years. This additional cost would 

be partly offset by increased federal income tax on OASDI benefits dedicated to the trust funds 

in the amount of 0.01 percent of payroll over the 75-year period. 
Page 2 – The Honorable Sherrod Brown

The estimates and analysis provided here reflect the combined effort of many in the Office of the 

Chief Actuary, but most particularly Jacqueline Walsh, Christopher Chaplain, Eugene Yang, 

Karen Glenn, Eli Donkar, and Tim Zayatz.

We hope these estimates will be helpful. Please let me know if we may provide further 

assistance.

Sincerely,

Stephen C. Goss

Chief Actuary

Enclosure
Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2015 14.13 12.82 -1.31 308 0.00 0.00 0.00

2016 13.88 12.88 -1.00 298 0.00 0.00 0.00

2017 14.04 12.92 -1.12 277 0.14 0.01 -0.14

2018 14.12 12.94 -1.17 260 0.15 0.01 -0.14

2019 14.24 12.96 -1.28 244 0.15 0.01 -0.14

2020 14.38 12.97 -1.41 228 0.15 0.01 -0.14

2021 14.50 12.99 -1.51 213 0.15 0.01 -0.15

2022 14.68 13.02 -1.66 197 0.16 0.01 -0.15

2023 14.88 13.04 -1.85 181 0.16 0.01 -0.15

2024 15.12 13.07 -2.05 165 0.16 0.01 -0.16

2025 15.33 13.09 -2.24 149 0.17 0.01 -0.16

2026 15.53 13.10 -2.42 132 0.17 0.01 -0.16

2027 15.72 13.12 -2.60 116 0.16 0.01 -0.16

2028 15.91 13.14 -2.78 99 0.16 0.01 -0.16

2029 16.09 13.15 -2.94 82 0.16 0.01 -0.15

2030 16.26 13.16 -3.09 65 0.16 0.01 -0.15

2031 16.40 13.17 -3.23 46 0.16 0.01 -0.15

2032 16.53 13.18 -3.35 27 0.16 0.01 -0.15

2033 16.63 13.19 -3.44 8 0.15 0.01 -0.15

2034 16.70 13.20 -3.50 ---- 0.15 0.01 -0.14

2035 16.77 13.21 -3.56 ---- 0.15 0.01 -0.14

2036 16.83 13.21 -3.62 ---- 0.15 0.01 -0.14

2037 16.87 13.22 -3.65 ---- 0.15 0.01 -0.14

2038 16.88 13.22 -3.66 ---- 0.15 0.01 -0.14

2039 16.87 13.22 -3.65 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.14

2040 16.86 13.22 -3.63 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.14

2041 16.83 13.22 -3.61 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2042 16.81 13.22 -3.58 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2043 16.78 13.22 -3.56 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2044 16.75 13.22 -3.53 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2045 16.73 13.22 -3.51 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2046 16.71 13.22 -3.49 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2047 16.69 13.22 -3.47 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2048 16.68 13.22 -3.46 ---- 0.13 0.01 -0.13

2049 16.67 13.23 -3.45 ---- 0.13 0.01 -0.13

2050 16.67 13.23 -3.45 ---- 0.13 0.01 -0.13

2051 16.69 13.23 -3.46 ---- 0.13 0.01 -0.13

2052 16.71 13.23 -3.48 ---- 0.13 0.01 -0.13

2053 16.74 13.23 -3.50 ---- 0.13 0.01 -0.13

2054 16.78 13.24 -3.54 ---- 0.13 0.01 -0.13

2055 16.82 13.24 -3.58 ---- 0.13 0.01 -0.13

2056 16.87 13.24 -3.63 ---- 0.13 0.01 -0.13

2057 16.93 13.25 -3.68 ---- 0.13 0.01 -0.13

2058 16.98 13.25 -3.73 ---- 0.13 0.01 -0.13

2059 17.03 13.26 -3.78 ---- 0.13 0.01 -0.13

2060 17.09 13.26 -3.83 ---- 0.13 0.01 -0.13

2061 17.14 13.26 -3.88 ---- 0.13 0.01 -0.13

2062 17.19 13.27 -3.93 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2063 17.25 13.27 -3.98 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2064 17.30 13.27 -4.02 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2065 17.35 13.28 -4.08 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2066 17.41 13.28 -4.13 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2067 17.47 13.28 -4.18 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2068 17.53 13.29 -4.24 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2069 17.58 13.29 -4.29 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2070 17.64 13.30 -4.35 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2071 17.69 13.30 -4.39 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2072 17.74 13.30 -4.43 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2073 17.77 13.30 -4.47 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2074 17.80 13.31 -4.50 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2075 17.82 13.31 -4.52 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2076 17.84 13.31 -4.53 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2077 17.84 13.31 -4.53 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2078 17.85 13.31 -4.54 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2079 17.85 13.31 -4.54 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2080 17.85 13.31 -4.54 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2081 17.86 13.31 -4.54 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2082 17.87 13.31 -4.56 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2083 17.89 13.31 -4.58 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2084 17.92 13.31 -4.60 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2085 17.95 13.32 -4.63 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2086 17.99 13.32 -4.67 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2087 18.03 13.32 -4.71 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2088 18.07 13.32 -4.75 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2089 18.11 13.33 -4.79 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.14

2090 18.16 13.33 -4.83 ---- 0.14 0.01 -0.14

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

16.69% 13.87% -2.82% 2033 0.14% 0.01% -0.13%

1 Under present law the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034

Table 1 - OASDI Annual and Summarized Cost Rate, Income Rate, Balance, and Annual Trust Fund Ratio

Senator Brown S. 1651 "Social Security Fairness Act of 2015" to Eliminate Windfall Elimination Provision and Government Pension Offset for All OASDI 

Benefits, Effective January 2017

Proposal Change from Present Law

February 24, 2016

Summarized Rates: OASDI

Year of reserve 

depletion1

Summarized Rates: OASDI

2015 - 2089

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll