SSA Office of the Chief Actuary

Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) 

Projections

Social Security Advisory Board Technical Panel Presentation

June 1, 2016

Office of the Chief Actuary, SSA

1
Presentation

• How LFPR projections fit within OCACT trust fund projections

• Historical LFPRs and OCACT LFPR projections

• Description of OCACT LFPR model

• Comparisons to other LFPR projections

• Recommendations from prior technical panels

• Potential enhancements to the LFPR model 2
How LFPR projections fit within 

trust fund projections

• Social Security cost and solvency---

• Ratio of beneficiaries to workers

• Principally a demographic issue

• LFPR affects covered workers, payroll and tax income first 

• Offsetting effect on beneficiaries later

• LFPR affects insured status

• LFPR also affects fullness of career earnings

• Trend parameters that accumulate have most effect

• A “level shift,” as in higher or lower ultimate LFPR has less effect

• The big questions:

• Demand as well as supply of labor in U.S., and internationally

• Permanent or transient effects of recent recession? 3
OCACT LFPR Projections

4
40.0 5

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

1981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005200720092011201320152017201920212023

Age-Sex-Adjusted Total LFPRs

1981-2007

Females

All

Males
40.0 6

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

1981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005200720092011201320152017201920212023

Age-Sex-Adjusted Total LFPRs

1981-2014

Males

Females

All
40.0 7

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

1981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005200720092011201320152017201920212023

Age-Sex-Adjusted Total LFPRs

1981-2024

Males

Females

All
OCACT LFPR Model

• 153 LFPR equations, 69 for males and 84 for 

females

• Table 1: Males: age (55 age groups) + marital status (14 

additional) 

• Table 2: Females: age (55 age groups) + marital status 

(14 additional) + child under age of 6 (15 additional) 

• Model components include:

• Economic cycle, disability prevalence, education, 

marital status, child under age 6, replacement rate, 

earnings test, cohort effects (females),Female LFPRs

• Adjustments for life expectancy, aggregate LFPR 8
Effect of Components LFPRs 

• Table 3: 2013:Q4 to 2023:Q4: Age-sex adjusted (handout)

• Table 4: 2023:Q4 to 2088:Q4: Age-sex adjusted (handout)

• Table 5: 2023:Q4 to 2088:Q4: Gross (handout)

• Table 6: 2023:Q4 to 2088:Q4: Gross (handout)

9
10

0.005

-0.001 0.000

0.002

0.000

0.001 0.001

0.001

0.000

0.003

0.012

-0.005

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

Econ.

Cycle

Disab.

Prev.

Educ. Rep.

Rate

Earn.

Test

Female

LFPR

1948

Cohort

Lagged

Cohort

(75+)

Time

Trend

Life

Expect.

Total

Labor Force Participation Rates (Age-Sex-Mar-Child Adjusted, Base 2011): 

2013 4th Qtr. to 2023 4th Qtr.

Model Effects Only
11

0.006

-0.001

-0.001

0.002

0.000

0.001 0.001

0.000

0.004

0.012

-0.005

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

Econ.

Cycle

Disab.

Prev.

Educ. Rep.

Rate

Earn.

Test

Female

LFPR

Lagged

Cohort

(75+)

Time

Trend

Life

Expect.

Total

Male Labor Force Participation Rates (Age-Mar-Child Adjusted, Base 2011: 

2013 4th Qtr. to 2023 4th Qtr.

Model Effects Only
12

0.004

-0.001

0.001

0.002

0.000

0.001 0.002

0.000

0.003

0.011

-0.005

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

Econ.

Cycle

Disab.

Prev.

Educ. Rep.

Rate

Earn.

Test

1948

Cohort

Lagged

Cohort

(75+)

Time

Trend

Life

Expect.

Total

Female Labor Force Participation Rates (Age-Mar-Child Adjusted, Base 2011): 

2013 4th Qtr. to 2023 4th Qtr.

Model Effects Only
13

0.005

-0.001 0.000

0.002

0.000

0.001 0.001 0.001

0.000

0.003

0.012 0.011

0.023

-0.005

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

Econ.

Cycle

Disab.

Prev.

Educ. Rep.

Rate

Earn.

Test

Female

LFPR

1948

Cohort

Lagged

Cohort

(75+)

Time

Trend

Life

Expect.

Model

Total

Mod -

BLS

Total

Labor Force Participation Rates (Age-Sex-Mar-Child Adjusted, Base 2011): 

2013 4th Qtr. to 2023 4th Qtr.

2013:Q4 Difference Between 

Model and Actual BLS LFPR
14

0.006

-0.001

-0.001

0.002

0.000

0.001 0.001

0.000

0.004

0.012

0.009

0.021

-0.005

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

Econ.

Cycle

Disab.

Prev.

Educ. Rep.

Rate

Earn.

Test

Female

LFPR

Lagged

Cohort

(75+)

Time

Trend

Life

Expect.

Model

Total

Mod -

BLS

Total

Male Labor Force Participation Rates (Age-Mar-Child Adjusted, Base 2011): 

2013 4th Qtr. to 2023 4th Qtr.

2013:Q4 Difference Between 

Model and Actual BLS LFPR
15

0.004

-0.001

0.001 0.002

0.000

0.001 0.002

0.000

0.003

0.011

0.013

0.024

-0.005

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

Econ.

Cycle

Disab.

Prev.

Educ. Rep.

Rate

Earn.

Test

1948

Cohort

Lagged

Cohort

(75+)

Time

Trend

Life

Expect.

Model

Total

Mod -

BLS

Total

Female Labor Force Participation Rates (Age-Mar-Child Adjusted, Base 2011): 

2013 4th Qtr. to 2023 4th Qtr. 

2013:Q4 Difference Between 

Model and Actual BLS LFPR
16

0.025

-0.028

0.000

-0.001 -0.001

-0.030

-0.004

-0.040

-0.030

-0.020

-0.010

0.000

0.010

0.020

0.030

Model+Adj

BLS

Age Gender Marital

Status

Child Present Demo. Total Total

Effects of Demographic Factors on Gross Labor Force Participation Rates

Model Effects + Adjustment from BLS to Model

Total = Model Effects + Adj. to BLS + Demo. Total
17

0.000

-0.002

0.000 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000

0.011

0.009

-0.005

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

Econ.

Cycle

Disab.

Prev.

Educ. Rep.

Rate

Earn.

Test

Female

LFPR

1948

Cohort

Lagged

Cohort

(75+)

Time

Trend

Life

Expect.

Total

Labor Force Participation Rates (Age-Sex-Mar-Child Adjusted, Base 2011): 

2023 4th Qtr. to 2088 4th Qtr.
18

0.000

-0.002

-0.001 0.000 0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.011

0.009

-0.005

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

Econ.

Cycle

Disab.

Prev.

Educ. Rep.

Rate

Earn.

Test

Female

LFPR

Lagged

Cohort

(75+)

Time

Trend

Life

Expect.

Total

Male Labor Force Participation Rates (Age-Mar-Child Adjusted, Base 2011): 

2023 4th Qtr. to 2088 4th Qtr.
19

0.000

-0.002

0.000

0.000 0.000

0.000

0.001

0.000

0.010 0.010

-0.005

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

Econ.

Cycle

Disab.

Prev.

Educ. Rep.

Rate

Earn.

Test

1948

Cohort

Lagged

Cohort

(75+)

Time

Trend

Life

Expect.

Total

Female Labor Force Participation Rates (Age-Mar-Child Adjusted, Base 2011): 

2023 4th Qtr. to 2088 4th Qtr.
20 0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

19651967196919711973197519771979198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009201120132015

Percentage of Population Aged 25 to 29 With a 

Bachelor's or Higher Degree by Sex: 1965 to 2015

Male Female

Older-Ages in 2013: 

1947-51 Birth Cohort 1976: 27.5%

Last group used for projections: ~26.6% 
0.0 21

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

19651967196919711973197519771979198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009201120132015

Percentage of Population Aged 25 to 29 With a 

Bachelor's or Higher Degree by Sex: 1965 to 2015

Male Female

Missing Increases in 

Educational Attainment
22

OCACT 1948 Female Birth Cohort Effect is Consistent with the Data

Source: Juhn and Potter, 2006 JEP 
Comparatives

• SSAB Technical Panel: 

• Felt Trustees Report LFPR projections were too low

• Believed significant economic pressures will lead to more work 

effort

• Believed increases in educational attainment would boost LFPRs

• Recommended greater uncertainty with LFPR projections

• Relative to 2014 Trustees LFPR projections to 2024

• 2013 BLS projections are lower, particularly at young ages

• 2014 CBO projections are similar (omitting ACA assumption)

• 2014 CEA Mid-Session Review projections are similar

• 2014 Aaronson et al projections

• 2007 based are similar

• 2014 based are lower

• Questions: How do the projections differ? Why? 23
Factors Affecting LFPR Projections

• Demographics factors 

• Age-sex (TR, BLS, CEA, Aaronson)

• Marital status (TR, Aaronson)

• Fertility (TR, Aaronson)

• Race and ethnicity (BLS) 

• Cyclical factors (TR, BLS, CEA, Aaronson)

• Great recession temporary distortion (TR, CEA, Aaronson 2007)

• Great recession permanent effect (BLS, Aaronson 2014)

• Structural factors: education, disability prevalence, social security generosity, life 

expectancy, etc. (TR, Aaronson)

• Cohort effects (TR, Aaronson) 

• Aaronson for almost all birth-year cohorts

• TR for some female birth year cohorts 

• Time trends (BLS)

• BLS for all age-sex-race/ethnicity subgroups

• TR for some age-sex subgroups

• Labor Demand factors

• How will global factors affect the domestic production of goods and services? 

• How has it already affected labor demand and how will it affect it in the future?

• Are there other demand side factors that we should be incorporating in our models? 24
BLS Methodology (Toosi, 2011;2013)

• Uses historical LFPR trends within 136 detailed age (17), sex, 

race and ethnicity (4) categories

• Extrapolates past participation rates after a process of 

smoothing and filtering 

• Does not directly take into account the behavioral aspects, 

economic factors, structural changes, and dynamic conditions 

of the labor market

25
CEA Methodology

• Uses 2007 age-sex specific LFPRs for ultimate

• Applies cyclic adjustment to change from current to full 

employment 

• Does not directly take into account the behavioral aspects

• Phases out the residual by about 2023

26
Aaronson et al (2006, 2014)

• Build LFPR model reflecting:

• Aging, business cycle, life expectancy, educational attainment, Social 

Security generosity, marriage and fertility rates, birth-cohort specific 

effects

• Largest effect on change in LFPR between 2007-2014 attributed to 

birth-cohort effects when fitted through 2014 data

• Model fitted through 2007:Q2 has excessively strong econ cyclic 

response, but at full employment matches 2014TR closely

• Model fitted through 2014:Q2 

- greatly diminishes response to econ cycle and appears to attribute

 recent recession to cohort shift

- carries forward 2013 reduced LFPR to 2022-24 

- concern over model projection post 2024 from evolving cohort effect 

27
CBO Methodology

• Constructs age-sex specific LFPRs, to obtain aggregate LFPR and Labor Force 

estimates

• Methodology for labor force projections not provided

• Add in immigration to the aggregates:

• Increases labor force and population

• No net change in LFPR

• Reduce aggregate LF estimates for “fiscal policies”

• Assume ACA subsidies will reduce LFP

• Assume tax code “bracket creep” 

• These assumptions reduce 2024 LFPRs from 61.7 to 60.9

• CBO “fiscal policy” assumptions inconsistent with TR (e.g., LFPR vs. hours 

worked)

• Without fiscal policy assumptions CBO (61.7 percent) is closer to TR 62.4 percent by 

2024 

• Differences are for young and old age groups for both men and women (under 30, 70+) 28
Age-Sex Adjusted Comparisons

29
50

55

60

65

70

75

80

198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Male Age-Adjusted LFPRs

1981-2022

Age-Adjusted LFPR (Historical & 2014 TR Alt 2 Projection) Age-Adjusted LFPR (BLS Projection)

TR14: 71.9 by 2022

BLS: 70.3 by 2022

OMB: 72.2 by 2023

2011 Technical Panel Recommendation: 75.0 by 2085

CBO: 71.7 by 2024

Economic Cycle Peaks: Jul 1981, Jul 1990, Mar 2001, Dec 2007 

30
50

55

60

65

70

75

80

198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Female Age-Adjusted LFPRs

1981-2022

Age-Adjusted LFPR (Historical & 2014 TR Alt 2 Projection) Age-Adjusted LFPR (BLS Projection)

TR14: 60.1 by 2022

BLS: 58.8 by 2022

2011 Technical Panel Recommendation: 61.9 by 2085 

OMB: 58.7 by 2023

CBO: 59.1 by 2024

Economic Cycle Peaks: Jul 1981, Jul 1990, Mar 2001, Dec 2007 

31
50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Age-Sex-Adjusted Total LFPRs

1981-2022

Age-Sex-Adjusted LFPR (Historical & 2014 TR Alt 2 Projection) Age-Sex-Adjusted LFPR (BLS Projection)

TR14 Projection: 65.8 by 2022 

BLS: 64.4 by 2022 

OMB: 65.3 by 2023

2011 Technical Panel Recommendation: 68.2 by 2085

Economic Cycle Peaks: Jul 1981, Jul 1990, Mar 2001, Dec 2007 

32

CBO: 65.2 by 2024
Gross Comparisons

33
34

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

1971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Gross Total LFPRs

1971-2022

LFPR (Historical & 2014 TR Alt 2 Projection)

LFPR (CBO Projection)

LFPR (BLS Projection)

LFPR (OMB FY 2015 MSR Projection)

Aaronson Baseline

Aaronson (Fig. 20 end 2007:Q2)

Historical and TR14 Projection

Aaronson Baseline

Economic Cycle Peaks: Nov 1973, Jan 1980, Jul 1981, Jul 1990, Mar 

2001, Dec 2007 
35

60.0

61.0

62.0

63.0

64.0

65.0

66.0

67.0

68.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Gross Total LFPRs

2007-2022

LFPR (Historical & 2014 TR Alt 2 Projection)

LFPR (CBO Projection)

LFPR (BLS Projection)

LFPR (OMB FY 2015 MSR Projection)

Aaronson Baseline

Aaronson (Fig. 20 end 2007:Q2)

Historical and TR14 Projection

Aaronson Baseline
36

Aaronson et al Alternative LFPR Projections
37

0.6

0.61

0.62

0.63

0.64

0.65

0.66

0.67

0.68

0.69

0.7

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Comparison of Model-Based LFPR Estimates 

BLS Published ("Actual")

OCACT Model

Aaronson (Fig. 20 End with 2007:Q2)
Within Group Comparisons

• Differences relative to 2007 by age and sex 

• OMB returns to 2007 age-sex rates by about 2023

• Historical trends & projections 

• Can LFPRs for younger groups continue to decline?

• Will economic pressures lead to a LFPR rebound?

38
39

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

16-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70+

Male Ratio of Projection to 2007 LFPR Rate

TR 2022/2007

BLS 2022/2007

CBO 2024/2007

29.2 55.3 78.7 91.3 93.1 93.0 91.6 89.8 86.4 77.8

59.2

34.3 14.0

2007 Labor Force Participation Rates

OMB 2023 = 2007
40

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

16-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70+

Male Ratio of Projection to 2007 LFPR Rate

TR 2022/2007

Fed 2022/2007

29.2 55.3 78.7 91.3 93.1 93.0 91.6 89.8 86.4 77.8

59.2

34.3 14.0

2007 Labor Force Participation Rates

OMB 2023 = 2007
41

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2

16-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70+

Female Ratio of Projection to 2007 LFPR Rate

TR 2022/2007

BLS 2022/2007

CBO 2024/2007

31.0 54.2 70.2 74.9 74.1 74.0 77.0 77.2 74.7

66.7 48.0

25.7 7.7

OMB 2024 = 2007

2007 Labor Force Participation Rates
42

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2

16-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70+

Female Ratio of Projection to 2007 LFPR Rate

TR 2022/2007

Fed 2022/2007

31.0 54.2 70.2 74.9 74.1 74.0 77.0 77.2 74.7

66.7 48.0

25.7 7.7

2007 Labor Force Participation Rates
0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

1977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Unemployment Rate (UR)

Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR)

Males 16-17

LFPR (Historical & 2014 TR Alt 2 Projection) LFPR (BLS) UR (Historical & 2014 TR Alt 2 Projection)

BLS Projection

TR14 Projection

Historical UR and TR14 Projection

CBO: 22.7 by 2024

OMB: 29.1 by 2023

43
0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

1977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Unemployment Rate (UR)

Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR)

Females 16-17

LFPR (Historical & 2014 TR Alt 2 Projection) LFPR (BLS) UR (Historical & 2014 TR Alt 2 Projection)

BLS Projection

TR14 Projection

Historical UR and TR14 Projection

OMB: LFPR of 31.0 by 2023

44

CBO: 22.9 by 2024
0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

82.0

84.0

86.0

88.0

1977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Unemployment Rate (UR)

Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR)

Males 20-24

LFPR (Historical & 2014 TR Alt 2 Projection) LFPR (BLS) UR (Historical & 2014 TR Alt 2 Projection)

BLS Projection

TR14 Projection

Historical UR and TR14 Projection

OMB: 78.7 by 2023

45

CBO: 74.7 by 2024
0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

60.0

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

1977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Unemployment Rate (UR)

Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR)

Females 20-24

LFPR (Historical & 2014 TR Alt 2 Projection) LFPR (BLS) UR (Historical & 2014 TR Alt 2 Projection)

BLS Projection

TR14 Projection

Historical UR and TR14 Projection

OMB: 70.2 by 2023

46

CBO: 68.6 by 2024
0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

86.0

87.0

88.0

89.0

90.0

91.0

92.0

93.0

94.0

95.0

1977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Unemployment Rate (UR)

Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR)

Males 45-49

LFPR (Historical & 2014 TR Alt 2 Projection) LFPR (BLS) UR (Historical & 2014 TR Alt 2 Projection)

BLS Projection

TR14 Projection

Historical UR and TR14 Projection

OMB: 89.8 by 2023

47

CBO: 89.0 by 2024
0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

1977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Unemployment Rate (UR)

Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR)

Females 45-49

LFPR (Historical & 2014 TR Alt 2 Projection) LFPR (BLS) UR (Historical & 2014 TR Alt 2 Projection)

BLS Projection

TR14 Projection

Historical UR and TR14 Projection

OMB: 77.2 by 2023

48

CBO: 76.1 by 2024
0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

1977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Unemployment Rate (UR)

Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR)

Males 60-64

LFPR (Historical & 2014 TR Alt 2 Projection) LFPR (BLS) UR (Historical & 2014 TR Alt 2 Projection)

BLS Projection

TR14 Projection

Historical UR and TR14 Projection

OMB: 59.2 

by 2023

49

CBO: 61.9 by 2024
0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

1977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Unemployment Rate (UR)

Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR)

Females 60-64

LFPR (Historical & 2014 TR Alt 2 Projection) LFPR (BLS) UR (Historical & 2014 TR Alt 2 Projection)

BLS Projection

TR14 Projection

Historical UR and TR14 Projection

OMB: 47.9 by 2023

50

CBO: 52.9 by 2024
Technical Panel Recommendations

• Educational Attainment

• Labor Demand

• Sensitivity Analysis

• Variation in Alternatives 1 and 3

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Other Enhancements

• Shift in Pensions from DB to DC Plans, 

Retirement Planning

• Incorporating Increases in Life Expectancy 

Directly Into the Model

• Business Cycle: Unemployment Rate Gap or 

Other Measures of Labor Market Slack

52
Takeaways

• OCACT uses age-sex specific LFPRs for projections 

of the financial status of the trust funds

• OCACT age-sex specific LFPRs are reasonable when 

compared to historical record and increases in life 

expectancy

• Model changes must consider the purpose of the 

LFPR model for OCACT projections

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