Trends in U.S. 

Social Security 

Actuarial Status

Steve Goss, Chief Actuary 

U.S. Social Security Administration

14 May 2019
2

U.S. Social Security: Scheduled Cost and Revenue as % of GDP

Cost rising from 4.3% to 6% of GDP by 2035—then stable!

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Calendar year

Non-interest Income

Historical Estimated

Cost
Pay-as-you-go financing: no borrowing authority

– So must maintain a positive Trust Fund reserve

Should trust fund reserves become depleted:

– Would need to reduce or delay scheduled benefits

– This has never happened since benefits started in 1940

Congress has always acted to avoid reserve depletion

– Near certainty this will continue

3

U.S. Social Security: Funding Limitations
4

U.S. Social Security: What If Congress Did Not Act?

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

450%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

Social Security Trust Fund Ratios

Assets as Percent of Annual Cost

Trustees Report Intermediate Projections

OASDI 2019TR

OASI 2019TR

DI 2019TR

OASDI 2018TR

OASI 2018TR

DI 2018TR

Historical

DI

OASDI

OASI

Tax Rate

Reallocation

Estimated
5

U.S. Social Security: 20% to 25% Shortfall in 2035 and Later

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095

Calendar year

Cost: Scheduled and 

payable benefits

Non-interest Income

Payable benefits as percent

of scheduled benefits:

2018-34: 100%

2035: 80%

2093: 75%

Cost: Scheduled but not 

fully payable benefits

Expenditures: Payable benefits = income 

after trust fund depletion in 2035

Historical Estimated
Aging: a familiar story

Is this all about longevity?

– No, mainly about birth rates – another familiar story!

– Immigration helps in the U.S. 

– But the age distribution is the story: “macro aging”

6

U.S. Social Security: Why the Rising Cost?
7

U.S. Macro Aging: Level Shift Due to Drop in Birth Rates

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Aged Dependency Ratio 2019 TR

Population 65+/(20-64) 

Actual and TR Intermediate

TFR remains at 3.0 after 1964

TFR remains at 3.3 after 1964
8

U.S. Is Not Alone: TFR Below 2.1 Almost Everywhere

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Total Fertility Rate

Canada China

Denmark Japan

Sweden United States
9

Adjusting for Expected Immigration Helps Many

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Adjusted Total Fertility Rate--Adding Net Migration to Births

Canada China

Denmark Japan

Sweden United States
10

U.S. Mortality Decline (Micro Aging) Almost Ceased Since 2009

Are our projections now too optimistic? More later this week!

700

750

800

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Age-Sex-Adjusted Death Rates

(Total, All Ages)

2017TR 2018TR 2019TR Actual
Make choices addressing OASDI deficits 2035-2093:

• Raise scheduled revenue after 2034 by about one-third 

(from 4.5% to 6% of GDP)

• Reduce scheduled benefits after 2034 by about one-fourth 

(from 6% to 4.5% of GDP)

• Or some combination of the two

11

How to Eliminate the U.S. Social Security Long-Term 

Actuarial Deficit
12

One More Thing: Disability Incidence Declining Dramatically

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

DI Age-Sex-Adjusted Incidence Rates:

Historical and Intermediate Assumptions for 2012 through 2019 Trustees 

Report

2012TR

2013TR

2014TR

2015TR

2016TR

2017TR

Average 1990-2018 5.19

Ultimate Assumption 5.20

2018TR

2019TR
13

Number Disabled Is Far Below Expected. Internationally?

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Disabled Worker Beneficiaries

In Current Payment Status at End of Year (in thousands)

2008 TR (no recession)

2019 TR

2018 TR
There you will find:

• This and all prior Social Security Trustees Reports

• Detailed single-year tables for recent reports

• Our estimates for comprehensive proposals

• Our estimates for the individual provisions

• Actuarial notes; including replacement rates

• Actuarial studies; including stochastic

• Extensive databases

• Congressional testimonies

• Presentations by OCACT employees

14

For More Information Go To 

http://www.ssa.gov/oact/