SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE, MD 21235-0001

SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary 

July 20, 2022 

The Honorable Rodney Davis

United States House of Representatives

Washington, D.C. 20515 

The Honorable Abigail Spanberger 

United States House of Representatives

Washington, D.C. 20515 

Dear Representatives Davis and Spanberger: 

I am writing in response to your request for estimates of the financial effects on Social Security 

of H.R. 82, the Social Security Fairness Act of 2021, which you introduced on January 4, 2021, 

along with other members of the House. This Bill (hereafter referred to as the proposal) would 

eliminate the Government Pension Offset (GPO) and Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP)

from the Social Security Act effective January 2022. We have enjoyed working with Kyle Bakes 

and Nicholas Widmyer of your staffs in evaluating this proposal. 

The enclosed table provides estimates of the effects of this provision on the cost, income, and 

combined trust fund reserves for the Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) 

program. Assuming enactment of the proposal by the end of calendar year 2022, effective for all 

benefits payable for entitlement after December 2021 (without regard for when the beneficiary 

became initially entitled), we estimate the increase in benefit obligations for the OASDI program 

would reduce the OASDI long-range actuarial balance by 0.12 percent of taxable payroll and 

would change the projected year of reserve depletion for the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds 

from 2035 under current law to 2034 under the proposal. These estimates are based on the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2022 Trustees Report. 

The GPO and WEP provisions reduce OASI and DI benefits for most workers who receive a 

pension based on earnings in employment that was not covered under the Social Security 

program. About one-fourth of state and local government employees are currently not covered 

under Social Security. Most federal government employees who were hired before 1984 were 

also not covered. Workers not covered incur no OASDI payroll tax liability and also earn no 

credit toward benefits under the program from the non-covered earnings. In addition, employers 

of workers not covered also pay no OASDI payroll tax based on their earnings. 

As shown in the enclosed table, the cost of benefits under the OASDI program would be 

increased by 0.13 percent of taxable payroll over the next 75 years. This additional cost would be 
Page 2 – The Honorable Rodney Davis and the Honorable Abigail Spanberger 

partly offset by increased federal income tax on OASDI benefits dedicated to the trust funds in 

the amount of 0.01 percent of payroll over the 75-year period. The net effect on cash flow for the 

OASI and DI Trust Funds over the period including calendar years 2022 through 2031 (increase 

in revenue minus increase in benefit payments) would be a reduction of $146 billion. 

The estimates and analysis provided here reflect the combined effort of many in the Office of the 

Chief Actuary, but most particularly Jacqueline Walsh, Christopher Chaplain, Kyle Burkhalter, 

Dan Nickerson, Anna Kirjusina, Karen Glenn, and Michael Stephens. 

We hope these estimates will be helpful. Please let me know if we may provide further 

assistance.

Sincerely, 

Stephen C. Goss 

Chief Actuary 

Enclosure 
Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

H.R. 82, the "Social Security Fairness Act of 2021," Introduced by Representatives Davis, Spanberger, et al.

Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2022 14.21 12.80 -1.41 227 0.15 0.01 -0.15

2023 14.46 13.04 -1.42 207 0.15 0.01 -0.15

2024 14.59 12.96 -1.63 190 0.15 0.01 -0.14

2025 14.80 12.97 -1.83 173 0.14 0.01 -0.14

2026 15.03 13.09 -1.94 155 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2027 15.24 13.11 -2.13 137 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2028 15.46 13.15 -2.32 120 0.14 0.01 -0.13

2029 15.66 13.18 -2.48 102 0.13 0.01 -0.13

2030 15.85 13.21 -2.65 84 0.13 0.01 -0.12

2031 16.04 13.24 -2.80 67 0.13 0.01 -0.12

2032 16.20 13.25 -2.94 49 0.13 0.01 -0.12

2033 16.33 13.26 -3.07 31 0.13 0.01 -0.12

2034 16.45 13.27 -3.18 12 0.13 0.01 -0.12

2035 16.55 13.28 -3.27 ---- 0.13 0.01 -0.12

2036 16.62 13.29 -3.34 ---- 0.13 0.01 -0.12

2037 16.70 13.29 -3.41 ---- 0.13 0.01 -0.12

2038 16.76 13.30 -3.47 ---- 0.13 0.01 -0.12

2039 16.81 13.30 -3.51 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.12

2040 16.84 13.31 -3.54 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.12

2041 16.86 13.31 -3.55 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.12

2042 16.89 13.31 -3.58 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.12

2043 16.90 13.31 -3.59 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.12

2044 16.92 13.31 -3.61 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.11

2045 16.94 13.31 -3.63 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.11

2046 16.96 13.32 -3.64 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.11

2047 16.98 13.32 -3.67 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.11

2048 17.01 13.32 -3.69 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.11

2049 17.04 13.32 -3.71 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.11

2050 17.07 13.33 -3.74 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.11

2051 17.10 13.33 -3.77 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.11

2052 17.13 13.33 -3.80 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.11

2053 17.17 13.33 -3.84 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.11

2054 17.22 13.34 -3.88 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.11

2055 17.27 13.34 -3.93 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.11

2056 17.32 13.35 -3.98 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.11

2057 17.38 13.35 -4.03 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.11

2058 17.44 13.36 -4.09 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.11

2059 17.51 13.36 -4.15 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.11

2060 17.57 13.37 -4.20 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.11

2061 17.63 13.37 -4.26 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.11

2062 17.69 13.38 -4.32 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.11

2063 17.75 13.38 -4.37 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.12

2064 17.80 13.39 -4.42 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.12

2065 17.85 13.39 -4.46 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.12

2066 17.91 13.39 -4.51 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.12

2067 17.96 13.40 -4.56 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.12

2068 18.01 13.40 -4.61 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.12

2069 18.07 13.41 -4.66 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.12

2070 18.13 13.41 -4.72 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.12

2071 18.18 13.41 -4.77 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.12

2072 18.24 13.42 -4.82 ---- 0.13 0.01 -0.12

2073 18.29 13.42 -4.87 ---- 0.13 0.01 -0.12

2074 18.34 13.43 -4.91 ---- 0.13 0.01 -0.12

2075 18.38 13.43 -4.95 ---- 0.13 0.01 -0.12

2076 18.41 13.43 -4.98 ---- 0.13 0.01 -0.12

2077 18.44 13.43 -5.00 ---- 0.13 0.01 -0.12

2078 18.45 13.44 -5.01 ---- 0.13 0.01 -0.12

2079 18.44 13.44 -5.01 ---- 0.13 0.01 -0.12

2080 18.43 13.44 -4.99 ---- 0.13 0.01 -0.12

2081 18.40 13.43 -4.97 ---- 0.13 0.01 -0.12

2082 18.37 13.43 -4.94 ---- 0.13 0.01 -0.12

2083 18.33 13.43 -4.90 ---- 0.13 0.01 -0.12

2084 18.29 13.43 -4.86 ---- 0.13 0.01 -0.12

2085 18.23 13.43 -4.81 ---- 0.13 0.01 -0.12

2086 18.17 13.42 -4.75 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.12

2087 18.11 13.42 -4.69 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.12

2088 18.04 13.41 -4.63 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.12

2089 17.98 13.41 -4.57 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.12

2090 17.92 13.40 -4.51 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.12

2091 17.86 13.40 -4.46 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.12

2092 17.83 13.40 -4.43 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.12

2093 17.80 13.40 -4.40 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.12

2094 17.77 13.40 -4.38 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.12

2095 17.76 13.40 -4.37 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.12

2096 17.76 13.40 -4.37 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.12

2097 17.77 13.40 -4.37 ---- 0.12 0.01 -0.12

Summarized Rates: OASDI Summarized Rates: OASDI

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Year of reserve 

depletion1

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

2022 - 2096 17.33% 13.79% -3.54% 2034 0.13% 0.01% -0.12%

Note: Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2022 Trustees Report.

1

Under current law the year of combined Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2035.

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

July 20, 2022

Proposal Change from Current Law

Expressed as a percentage of current-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of current-law

taxable payroll