SOCIAL SECURITY 

Office of the Chief Actuary

SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE MD 21235-0001 

December 2, 2011 

The Honorable Jeffrey M. Landry 

House of Representatives 

Washington, D.C. 20515 

Dear Mr. Landry: 

I am writing in response to your request on November 30, 2011 for estimates of the financial 

effects on Social Security of the “Social Security Preservation through Individual Choice 

Enhancement Act” which you are introducing today. We have worked closely with Michael 

Stwarka of your staff in the development of the proposal. The estimates provided here reflect 

our understanding of the intent of this bill. All estimates are based on the intermediate 

assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report. The estimates presented reflect the combined efforts 

of many in our office, but particularly Alice Wade, Chris Chaplain, and Dan Nickerson. 

The bill includes the following two provisions: 

 Allow all workers to choose, for each calendar year starting with 2012, whether to have

their payroll tax rate reduced by 2 percentage points. The payroll tax rate applies to all

earnings covered by the OASDI program up to the taxable maximum amount. The tax

rate reduction would apply for both the employee payroll tax paid by wage and salary

workers, and the tax paid on earnings by self-employer workers.

 For each calendar year for which a worker chose to have their payroll tax rate reduced,

the normal retirement age (NRA) applicable for benefits paid based on the worker’s

earnings record will be increased by 1 month.

The bill would amend the provision in current law that provided a “payroll tax holiday” for all 

workers with OASDI covered earnings in 2011. The provision for reimbursement to the OASI 

and DI Trust Funds from the General Fund of the Treasury for any reduction in payroll tax 

revenue in 2011 would continue to apply for payroll tax reductions under this bill in 2012 and 

later. As a result, the OASI and DI Trust Funds would not have any direct reduction in revenue 

due to the lower payroll tax rates. 

The actuarial status of the OASI and combined OASDI Trust Funds would be improved under 

this bill to the extent that workers choose lower payroll taxes and thus a higher NRA. We 

assume that roughly two-thirds of all workers in each year would choose to have their payroll tax 

reduced, understanding that their NRA will be increased by 1 month as a result. We assume that 

high-paid and low-paid workers would be about equally likely to exercise this option in any year. 

Increased NRA for most workers in the future would reduce the 75-year long-range OASDI 

actuarial deficit by 0.66 percent of payroll, from a deficit of 2.22 percent of payroll under current 
2

law to a deficit of 1.57 percent of payroll under the bill. However, because increases in NRA 

would accumulate gradually for workers, and would only affect benefits in the future, the year 

that the combined OASI and DI Trust Fund would become exhausted would remain at 2036 

under the bill. 

The balance of this letter provides detailed estimates of the effects of enactment of the bill. All 

estimates reflect the intermediate assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report.

Detailed Financial Results 

Benefit Effects

Under current law, the NRA is 66 for individuals reaching age 62 in 2005 through 2016, 

increases by 2 additional months for those reaching age 62 in years 2017 through 2022, and 

remains at 67 for individuals reaching age 62 after 2022. Under this bill, beneficiaries’ NRA 

would be increased by one month for each prior calendar year, starting with 2012, for which they 

opted to have their payroll tax rate reduced by 2 percent. The number of additional months 

added to the NRA would vary by individual, ranging from zero to 48 months or more. For 

workers who opted to have the tax rate reduced in 24 years, their NRA would be increased by 24 

months, or 2 years. If such individuals choose to start receiving Social Security retirement 

benefits at the same age they would have chosen under current law, monthly benefits would be 

reduced by roughly 13 percent. If such individuals choose to delay the starting date of their 

retirement benefits by 2 years, they will have the same monthly benefit level, but will receive on 

average 13 percent less in benefits over their lifetime, because benefits start 2 years later.

Trust Fund Operations

Table 1 shows the annual cost and income rates, annual balances, and trust fund ratios for 

OASDI assuming enactment of the proposal. This table also shows the change from present law 

in these cost rates, income rates, and balances. Included at the bottom of this table are 

summarized rates for the 75-year long-range period and the expected year of trust fund 

exhaustion under this proposal. 

Table 1 indicates that the OASDI program annual cost would be reduced gradually under the bill 

with the reduction reaching 1.00 percent of payroll in 2051 and 1.61 percent of payroll in 2085. 

The reduced level of benefit cost would be partly offset by a small reduction in income to the 

trust funds from personal income taxes on benefits. The net effect would improve the annual 

deficit for the 75th year of the projection period by 1.53 percent of payroll, reducing the annual 

deficit projected under current law by about one-third. However, because of the very gradual 

effect on benefits in the projection period, the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds would still be 

projected to become exhausted in 2036.
3

Program Transfers and Assets

Column 5 of table 1a provides a projection of asset level for the combined OASI and DI Trust 

Funds under the proposal, expressed in present value January 1, 2011 dollars, using projected 

Trust Fund interest rates. For purpose of comparison, the net OASDI Trust Fund assets, 

expressed in present-value dollars, are also shown for a theoretical Social Security program 

where borrowing authority is assumed for the Trust Funds. Column 7 shows projected trust fund 

assets where positive and the unfunded obligation where negative, under current law. Column 8 

provides the projection for current law modified to provide the same General Fund transfers 

expected under this bill, but without the other provisions of the bill. Columns 1 through 3 

provide estimates of the amount of General Fund transfers that would result from reimbursing 

the Trust Funds for the reductions in payroll tax revenue under this bill. Gross Domestic 

Product, expressed in present value dollars, is shown in column 6 for comparison with other 

values in the table. 

Effect on the Federal Budget and Debt

Table 1b shows the projected effects of enactment of this proposal, in present value discounted 

dollars, on (1) the Federal unified budget and on-budget annual balances, and (2) the levels of 

publicly held debt and total Federal debt. Table 1b.n provides the estimated nominal-dollar 

effects of enactment of the proposal for years 2011 through 2021. All values in these tables 

represent the amount of the change that would be expected due to enactment of the proposal, 

from the level that would be projected under current law. 

The OASDI program is accounted for on an off-budget basis in the Federal Budget and therefore 

does not directly affect the on-budget expenditures or balances. In addition, the OASDI program 

has no direct net effect on the total Federal debt liability, which is comprised of publicly held 

debt plus debt owed to the Federal trust funds. Any accumulated assets in the trust funds, which 

are liabilities of the U.S. Treasury, would instead be borrowed from and owed to the public if the 

trust funds had not run net surpluses over past years. Any changes in OASDI cash flow from 

this or other OASDI legislation do not directly affect total Federal debt, or on-budget annual 

balances. The exception would be a provision that provides specified transfers from the General 

Fund of the Treasury to the trust funds. Such transfers would represent a decrease in the onbudget balance and an increase in the total Federal Debt. Values in columns (6) and (7) of tables 

1b and 1b.n reflect the expected General Fund transfers that would reimburse the Trust Funds for 

reduced payroll tax revenue under this proposal. 

However, when the on-budget and off-budget operations are considered on a “unified” basis, as 

is often the case, any changes in OASDI cash flow (non-interest income and cost) generally 

translate directly into cash-flow effects on the unified budget, and accumulated effects on that 

portion of total Federal debt that is borrowed from the public. The extent to which OASDI 

annual cash-flow surpluses and deficits influence other federal spending and tax levels is 

speculative and is not addressed in this analysis. 

The effect of the bill on OASDI program cash flow (column 2) is expected to be positive 

throughout the long-range period. The effect on the unified budget cash flow (column 3) is the 
4

sum of the effects on the OASDI cash flow (column 2) and on the on-budget cash flow (column 

6). Column 4 provides the projected effect of implementing the plan on the Federal debt held by 

the public. Column 5 provides the projected effect on the annual unified budget balances, 

including both the cash flow effect in column 3 and the additional interest on the accumulated 

debt indicated in column 4. 

It is important to note that these estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2011

Trustees Report and thus are not consistent with estimates made by the OMB or the CBO based 

on their assumptions. 

Annual Trust Fund Operations as a Percent of GDP

Table 1c provides annual cost, annual expenditures (on a payable basis), and annual non-interest 

income, for the OASDI program expressed as a percentage of GDP. These values are shown for 

both present law and assuming enactment of the proposal. Showing the annual trust fund flows 

as a percent of GDP provides an additional perspective on these trust fund operations in relation 

to the total value of goods and services produced in the United States.

Effects on Trust Fund Assets and Unfunded Obligations

Table 1d provides estimates of the changes due to the proposal in the level of projected trust 

fund assets under present law and, for years after trust fund exhaustion, the level of unfunded 

obligations under present law. All values in the table are expressed in present-value discounted 

dollars. For the 75-year long-range period as a whole, the present-law unfunded obligation of 

$6.5 trillion in present value is reduced to $4.5 trillion in present value. This change is the 

combination of the following: 

 A $0.1 trillion net decrease in income from the proposal (column 2). Revenue from 

taxation of Social Security benefits is reduced due to diminished benefit levels. 

 A $2.1 trillion decrease in cost from the proposal (column 3).

We hope these estimates will be helpful. Please let me know if we may provide further 

assistance.

 Sincerely,

Stephen C. Goss, Chief Actuary

Enclosures 
Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2011 13.35 12.52 -0.82 353 0.00 0.00 0.00

2012 13.23 12.87 -0.36 347 0.00 0.00 0.00

2013 13.18 12.87 -0.31 341 0.00 0.00 0.00

2014 13.18 12.92 -0.27 334 0.00 0.00 0.00

2015 13.24 12.94 -0.30 328 0.00 0.00 0.00

2016 13.32 12.97 -0.35 321 0.00 0.00 0.00

2017 13.46 13.00 -0.46 314 0.00 0.00 0.00

2018 13.61 13.03 -0.58 306 -0.01 0.00 0.01

2019 13.87 13.04 -0.83 296 -0.01 0.00 0.01

2020 14.18 13.06 -1.12 285 -0.01 0.00 0.01

2021 14.49 13.08 -1.41 273 -0.03 0.00 0.03

2022 14.77 13.10 -1.67 260 -0.06 0.00 0.06

2023 15.05 13.11 -1.93 247 -0.08 0.00 0.08

2024 15.30 13.13 -2.17 233 -0.10 0.00 0.10

2025 15.55 13.14 -2.40 218 -0.12 0.00 0.12

2026 15.79 13.16 -2.63 203 -0.14 0.00 0.13

2027 16.00 13.17 -2.83 187 -0.15 -0.01 0.14

2028 16.18 13.18 -3.00 170 -0.17 -0.01 0.16

2029 16.33 13.19 -3.14 152 -0.18 -0.01 0.18

2030 16.45 13.20 -3.25 135 -0.20 -0.01 0.20

2031 16.53 13.21 -3.32 116 -0.23 -0.01 0.22

2032 16.60 13.22 -3.39 97 -0.25 -0.01 0.24

2033 16.65 13.22 -3.43 78 -0.28 -0.01 0.27

2034 16.68 13.23 -3.45 59 -0.30 -0.01 0.29

2035 16.68 13.23 -3.45 39 -0.33 -0.01 0.32

2036 16.67 13.23 -3.44 20 -0.36 -0.02 0.34

2037 16.65 13.23 -3.42 ---- -0.39 -0.02 0.37

2038 16.60 13.23 -3.37 ---- -0.42 -0.02 0.40

2039 16.53 13.23 -3.30 ---- -0.46 -0.02 0.44

2040 16.46 13.23 -3.23 ---- -0.49 -0.02 0.47

2041 16.38 13.22 -3.16 ---- -0.53 -0.02 0.51

2042 16.30 13.22 -3.08 ---- -0.57 -0.02 0.55

2043 16.22 13.22 -3.00 ---- -0.62 -0.03 0.59

2044 16.15 13.22 -2.93 ---- -0.66 -0.03 0.63

2045 16.08 13.21 -2.86 ---- -0.71 -0.03 0.68

2046 16.00 13.21 -2.79 ---- -0.76 -0.03 0.72

2047 15.93 13.21 -2.72 ---- -0.81 -0.03 0.77

2048 15.86 13.21 -2.66 ---- -0.85 -0.04 0.82

2049 15.80 13.21 -2.59 ---- -0.90 -0.04 0.86

2050 15.73 13.20 -2.53 ---- -0.95 -0.04 0.91

2051 15.68 13.20 -2.48 ---- -1.00 -0.04 0.96

2052 15.63 13.20 -2.43 ---- -1.05 -0.04 1.00

2053 15.59 13.20 -2.39 ---- -1.10 -0.05 1.05

2054 15.56 13.20 -2.36 ---- -1.14 -0.05 1.09

2055 15.54 13.20 -2.34 ---- -1.18 -0.05 1.13

2056 15.53 13.20 -2.33 ---- -1.21 -0.05 1.16

2057 15.52 13.20 -2.32 ---- -1.24 -0.05 1.19

2058 15.51 13.20 -2.31 ---- -1.27 -0.06 1.22

2059 15.49 13.20 -2.29 ---- -1.30 -0.06 1.25

2060 15.48 13.20 -2.28 ---- -1.33 -0.06 1.27

2061 15.46 13.20 -2.26 ---- -1.35 -0.06 1.29

2062 15.45 13.20 -2.25 ---- -1.38 -0.06 1.32

2063 15.44 13.20 -2.24 ---- -1.39 -0.06 1.33

2064 15.44 13.20 -2.24 ---- -1.41 -0.06 1.35

2065 15.45 13.20 -2.24 ---- -1.42 -0.06 1.36

2066 15.46 13.20 -2.25 ---- -1.43 -0.06 1.37

2067 15.47 13.20 -2.26 ---- -1.45 -0.06 1.38

2068 15.48 13.20 -2.28 ---- -1.46 -0.07 1.39

2069 15.50 13.21 -2.30 ---- -1.47 -0.07 1.40

2070 15.53 13.21 -2.32 ---- -1.48 -0.07 1.41

2071 15.55 13.21 -2.34 ---- -1.48 -0.07 1.42

2072 15.57 13.21 -2.36 ---- -1.49 -0.07 1.43

2073 15.60 13.21 -2.39 ---- -1.50 -0.07 1.43

2074 15.63 13.22 -2.41 ---- -1.51 -0.07 1.44

2075 15.66 13.22 -2.44 ---- -1.52 -0.07 1.45

2076 15.68 13.22 -2.46 ---- -1.53 -0.07 1.46

2077 15.71 13.22 -2.49 ---- -1.54 -0.07 1.47

2078 15.74 13.22 -2.51 ---- -1.55 -0.07 1.48

2079 15.76 13.22 -2.54 ---- -1.56 -0.07 1.49

2080 15.79 13.23 -2.57 ---- -1.57 -0.07 1.50

2081 15.82 13.23 -2.59 ---- -1.58 -0.07 1.51

2082 15.85 13.23 -2.62 ---- -1.59 -0.07 1.51

2083 15.89 13.23 -2.65 ---- -1.59 -0.07 1.52

2084 15.92 13.24 -2.68 ---- -1.60 -0.07 1.53

2085 15.95 13.24 -2.71 ---- -1.61 -0.07 1.53

2086 15.98 13.24 -2.74 ---- -1.61 -0.07 1.54

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

15.56% 13.99% -1.57% 2036 -0.69% -0.03% 0.66%

1 Under present law the year of exhaustion is 2036

Year of 

Exhaustion1

Summarized Rates: OASDI

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report

December 2, 2011

Summarized Rates: OASDI

2011 - 2085

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

Proposal

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll

Change in Present Law

Representative Landry "Social Security Preservation through Individual Choice Enhancement Act"
Percentage

of Payroll

Annual

Amounts

Accumulated as of 

End of Year

Gross Domestic 

Product

Without General

Fund Transfers

With Plan General

Fund Transfers

(1) (2) (3) (5) (6) (7) (8)

2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,564.6 14,904.1 2,564.6 2,564.6

2012 1.3 68.5 68.5 2,545.0 14,951.5 2,545.0 2,613.5

2013 1.3 73.6 142.1 2,528.0 15,099.9 2,527.9 2,670.1

2014 1.3 74.5 216.7 2,513.5 15,251.0 2,513.4 2,730.1

2015 1.3 75.2 291.9 2,496.8 15,351.9 2,496.7 2,788.5

2016 1.3 75.8 367.7 2,477.1 15,378.4 2,476.9 2,844.6

2017 1.3 76.1 443.8 2,451.6 15,366.5 2,451.1 2,894.9

2018 1.3 76.4 520.2 2,418.7 15,366.9 2,417.9 2,938.1

2019 1.3 76.4 596.6 2,371.7 15,345.6 2,370.3 2,967.0

2020 1.3 76.1 672.7 2,308.0 15,301.1 2,305.9 2,978.6

2021 1.3 75.6 748.3 2,228.7 15,242.3 2,224.7 2,973.0

2022 1.3 75.0 823.3 2,134.8 15,159.1 2,127.6 2,951.0

2023 1.3 74.3 897.7 2,027.4 15,052.7 2,015.9 2,913.6

2024 1.3 73.5 971.2 1,907.8 14,924.4 1,890.9 2,862.1

2025 1.3 72.6 1,043.8 1,777.1 14,765.8 1,753.6 2,797.4

2026 1.3 71.6 1,115.4 1,636.1 14,596.0 1,605.5 2,720.9

2027 1.3 70.7 1,186.1 1,486.4 14,436.0 1,448.1 2,634.2

2028 1.3 69.8 1,255.9 1,329.6 14,276.4 1,282.9 2,538.9

2029 1.3 68.9 1,324.9 1,167.4 14,114.5 1,111.6 2,436.4

2030 1.3 68.1 1,392.9 1,001.6 13,958.1 935.7 2,328.7

2031 1.3 67.3 1,460.2 833.8 13,813.5 757.0 2,217.2

2032 1.3 66.5 1,526.7 665.0 13,670.9 576.1 2,102.8

2033 1.3 65.7 1,592.5 495.9 13,528.0 393.8 1,986.3

2034 1.3 65.0 1,657.5 327.7 13,387.2 211.4 1,868.9

2035 1.3 64.2 1,721.7 161.4 13,245.5 29.8 1,751.5

2036 1.3 63.5 1,785.2 -2.5 13,107.1 -150.6 1,634.6

2037 1.3 62.8 1,847.9 -163.4 12,971.3 -329.1 1,518.8

2038 1.3 62.1 1,910.0 -320.1 12,843.4 -504.7 1,405.3

2039 1.3 61.4 1,971.4 -472.1 12,714.4 -676.9 1,294.5

2040 1.3 60.7 2,032.1 -619.2 12,582.3 -845.5 1,186.6

2041 1.3 60.0 2,092.1 -761.0 12,453.7 -1,010.4 1,081.7

2042 1.3 59.3 2,151.4 -897.7 12,326.2 -1,171.6 979.8

2043 1.3 58.6 2,210.0 -1,029.5 12,197.5 -1,329.5 880.5

2044 1.3 57.9 2,268.0 -1,156.8 12,069.4 -1,484.4 783.6

2045 1.3 57.2 2,325.2 -1,279.5 11,941.2 -1,636.3 688.9

2046 1.3 56.5 2,381.8 -1,397.5 11,813.2 -1,785.2 596.5

2047 1.3 55.8 2,437.6 -1,511.3 11,684.0 -1,931.5 506.1

2048 1.3 55.2 2,492.8 -1,621.0 11,555.8 -2,075.1 417.7

2049 1.3 54.5 2,547.2 -1,726.6 11,428.4 -2,216.1 331.1

2050 1.3 53.8 2,601.0 -1,828.4 11,301.9 -2,354.8 246.3

2051 1.3 53.1 2,654.2 -1,926.8 11,175.5 -2,491.4 162.7

2052 1.3 52.5 2,706.6 -2,022.1 11,049.7 -2,626.4 80.2

2053 1.3 51.8 2,758.4 -2,114.7 10,924.7 -2,759.9 -1.5

2054 1.3 51.1 2,809.6 -2,204.9 10,800.1 -2,892.1 -82.6

2055 1.3 50.5 2,860.1 -2,293.1 10,677.6 -3,023.3 -163.2

2056 1.3 49.8 2,909.9 -2,379.7 10,555.1 -3,153.5 -243.5

2057 1.3 49.2 2,959.1 -2,464.9 10,434.5 -3,282.7 -323.6

2058 1.3 48.6 3,007.7 -2,548.5 10,315.5 -3,410.8 -403.1

2059 1.3 48.0 3,055.7 -2,630.6 10,198.7 -3,537.8 -482.1

2060 1.3 47.4 3,103.0 -2,711.0 10,084.5 -3,663.4 -560.4

2061 1.3 46.8 3,149.8 -2,789.9 9,971.5 -3,787.8 -638.0

2062 1.3 46.2 3,196.0 -2,867.4 9,860.0 -3,911.0 -715.0

2063 1.3 45.6 3,241.5 -2,943.7 9,750.1 -4,032.9 -791.4

2064 1.3 45.0 3,286.6 -3,018.9 9,640.9 -4,153.8 -867.2

2065 1.3 44.4 3,331.0 -3,093.4 9,532.4 -4,273.6 -942.6

2066 1.3 43.9 3,374.9 -3,167.1 9,425.1 -4,392.6 -1,017.7

2067 1.3 43.3 3,418.2 -3,240.3 9,319.2 -4,510.8 -1,092.6

2068 1.3 42.8 3,461.0 -3,313.0 9,214.2 -4,628.3 -1,167.3

2069 1.3 42.2 3,503.2 -3,385.4 9,109.6 -4,745.1 -1,241.9

2070 1.3 41.7 3,544.9 -3,457.6 9,005.9 -4,861.5 -1,316.6

2071 1.3 41.2 3,586.0 -3,529.5 8,903.0 -4,977.2 -1,391.2

2072 1.3 40.6 3,626.7 -3,601.1 8,801.0 -5,092.4 -1,465.7

2073 1.3 40.1 3,666.8 -3,672.7 8,699.7 -5,207.2 -1,540.4

2074 1.3 39.6 3,706.4 -3,744.1 8,599.7 -5,321.6 -1,615.2

2075 1.3 39.1 3,745.5 -3,815.3 8,500.5 -5,435.5 -1,690.0

2076 1.3 38.6 3,784.1 -3,886.3 8,402.2 -5,548.9 -1,764.9

2077 1.3 38.1 3,822.1 -3,957.1 8,304.6 -5,661.8 -1,839.7

2078 1.3 37.6 3,859.8 -4,027.6 8,207.6 -5,774.2 -1,914.5

2079 1.3 37.1 3,896.9 -4,098.1 8,111.3 -5,886.2 -1,989.3

2080 1.3 36.6 3,933.5 -4,168.3 8,015.9 -5,997.7 -2,064.2

2081 1.3 36.2 3,969.7 -4,238.4 7,921.4 -6,108.7 -2,139.0

2082 1.3 35.7 4,005.4 -4,308.4 7,827.9 -6,219.3 -2,213.9

2083 1.3 35.3 4,040.7 -4,378.3 7,734.9 -6,329.5 -2,288.8

2084 1.3 34.8 4,075.5 -4,448.0 7,642.9 -6,439.2 -2,363.7

2085 1.3 34.4 4,109.9 -4,517.6 7,552.1 -6,548.4 -2,438.6

Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report Office of the Chief Actuary

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9% Social Security Administration

December 2, 2011

1

 Specified General Fund transfers reimburse the optional 2 percent payroll tax cut to the Trust Funds, so that the Trust Funds are unaffected.

Present Value in Billions as of 1-1- 2011 Net OASDI Trust Fund Assets at End of Year

2

 Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption

 that the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury.

Representative Landry "Social Security Preservation through Individual Choice Enhancement Act"

Table 1a - General Fund Transfers, OASDI Trust Fund Assets, and Theoretical OASDI Assets

Calendar

Year

Proposal General Fund Transfers1 Present Value in Billions as of 1-1-2011

Proposal

Total OASDI

Trust Fund

Assets 

at End of Year

Theoretical Social Security2

with Borrowing Authority
Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers 2

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Cash Flow

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End Of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2012 68.5 0.0 -68.5 68.5 -68.5 -68.5 68.5 -68.5

2013 73.6 0.0 -73.6 142.1 -76.5 -73.6 142.1 -76.5

2014 74.5 0.0 -74.5 216.6 -80.5 -74.5 216.7 -80.5

2015 75.2 0.1 -75.1 291.8 -84.4 -75.2 291.9 -84.5

2016 75.8 0.1 -75.7 367.5 -88.3 -75.8 367.7 -88.4

2017 76.1 0.2 -75.9 443.3 -92.0 -76.1 443.8 -92.2

2018 76.4 0.3 -76.1 519.4 -96.0 -76.4 520.2 -96.4

2019 76.4 0.5 -75.9 595.3 -99.8 -76.4 596.6 -100.3

2020 76.1 0.8 -75.3 670.6 -103.2 -76.1 672.7 -104.1

2021 75.6 1.9 -73.7 744.3 -106.2 -75.6 748.3 -108.2

2022 75.0 3.1 -71.9 816.2 -109.1 -75.0 823.3 -112.4

2023 74.3 4.3 -70.0 886.2 -112.0 -74.3 897.7 -116.7

2024 73.5 5.5 -68.0 954.2 -115.0 -73.5 971.2 -121.1

2025 72.6 6.6 -66.0 1,020.3 -118.2 -72.6 1043.8 -125.7

2026 71.6 7.1 -64.5 1,084.8 -120.3 -71.6 1115.4 -128.7

2027 70.7 7.7 -63.0 1,147.8 -122.3 -70.7 1186.1 -131.7

2028 69.8 8.4 -61.4 1,209.3 -124.2 -69.8 1255.9 -134.6

2029 68.9 9.1 -59.8 1,269.1 -125.9 -68.9 1324.9 -137.6

2030 68.1 10.0 -58.1 1,327.1 -127.4 -68.1 1392.9 -140.5

2031 67.3 11.0 -56.3 1,383.4 -128.8 -67.3 1460.2 -143.4

2032 66.5 12.1 -54.4 1,437.8 -130.1 -66.5 1526.7 -146.3

2033 65.7 13.1 -52.6 1,490.4 -131.2 -65.7 1592.5 -149.2

2034 65.0 14.2 -50.8 1,541.2 -132.2 -65.0 1657.5 -152.0

2035 64.2 15.3 -48.9 1,590.1 -133.1 -64.2 1721.7 -154.8

2036 63.5 16.5 -47.0 1,637.1 -133.9 -63.5 1785.2 -157.6

2037 62.8 17.6 -45.1 1,682.3 -134.6 -62.8 1847.9 -160.3

2038 62.1 18.9 -43.2 1,725.5 -135.1 -62.1 1910.0 -163.1

2039 61.4 20.2 -41.2 1,766.7 -135.5 -61.4 1971.4 -165.8

2040 60.7 21.6 -39.1 1,805.8 -135.7 -60.7 2032.1 -168.4

2041 60.0 23.0 -37.0 1,842.7 -135.6 -60.0 2092.1 -171.1

2042 59.3 24.5 -34.8 1,877.5 -135.5 -59.3 2151.4 -173.7

2043 58.6 26.1 -32.5 1,910.0 -135.2 -58.6 2210.0 -176.2

2044 57.9 27.6 -30.3 1,940.3 -134.7 -57.9 2268.0 -178.7

2045 57.2 29.2 -28.0 1,968.3 -134.1 -57.2 2325.2 -181.2

2046 56.5 30.8 -25.7 1,994.0 -133.3 -56.5 2381.8 -183.6

2047 55.8 32.4 -23.4 2,017.5 -132.4 -55.8 2437.6 -186.0

2048 55.2 33.9 -21.2 2,038.7 -131.5 -55.2 2492.8 -188.4

2049 54.5 35.4 -19.0 2,057.7 -130.5 -54.5 2547.2 -190.7

2050 53.8 36.9 -16.9 2,074.7 -129.4 -53.8 2601.0 -193.0

2051 53.1 38.3 -14.8 2,089.5 -128.2 -53.1 2654.2 -195.3

2052 52.5 39.6 -12.8 2,102.3 -127.0 -52.5 2706.6 -197.5

2053 51.8 40.9 -10.9 2,113.2 -125.8 -51.8 2758.4 -199.7

2054 51.1 42.0 -9.1 2,122.4 -124.6 -51.1 2809.6 -201.9

2055 50.5 43.0 -7.5 2,129.9 -123.5 -50.5 2860.1 -204.0

2056 49.8 43.5 -6.3 2,136.2 -122.7 -49.8 2909.9 -206.2

2057 49.2 44.1 -5.1 2,141.3 -121.9 -49.2 2959.1 -208.2

2058 48.6 44.5 -4.1 2,145.4 -121.1 -48.6 3007.7 -210.3

2059 48.0 44.9 -3.1 2,148.5 -120.3 -48.0 3055.7 -212.3

2060 47.4 45.2 -2.1 2,150.6 -119.6 -47.4 3103.0 -214.4

2061 46.8 45.5 -1.3 2,151.9 -118.8 -46.8 3149.8 -216.3

2062 46.2 45.7 -0.5 2,152.4 -118.1 -46.2 3196.0 -218.3

2063 45.6 45.7 0.1 2,152.3 -117.5 -45.6 3241.5 -220.3

2064 45.0 45.6 0.6 2,151.7 -117.1 -45.0 3286.6 -222.2

2065 44.4 45.4 1.0 2,150.8 -116.6 -44.4 3331.0 -224.1

2066 43.9 45.2 1.3 2,149.4 -116.2 -43.9 3374.9 -225.9

2067 43.3 45.0 1.7 2,147.7 -115.8 -43.3 3418.2 -227.8

2068 42.8 44.8 2.0 2,145.7 -115.4 -42.8 3461.0 -229.6

2069 42.2 44.5 2.3 2,143.5 -115.0 -42.2 3503.2 -231.4

2070 41.7 44.2 2.5 2,141.0 -114.7 -41.7 3544.9 -233.1

2071 41.2 43.8 2.7 2,138.3 -114.3 -41.2 3586.0 -234.9

2072 40.6 43.5 2.9 2,135.4 -114.0 -40.6 3626.7 -236.6

2073 40.1 43.3 3.1 2,132.3 -113.6 -40.1 3666.8 -238.3

2074 39.6 43.0 3.4 2,128.9 -113.1 -39.6 3706.4 -240.0

2075 39.1 42.7 3.6 2,125.3 -112.7 -39.1 3745.5 -241.7

2076 38.6 42.4 3.8 2,121.4 -112.3 -38.6 3784.1 -243.3

2077 38.1 42.1 4.0 2,117.4 -111.9 -38.1 3822.1 -244.9

2078 37.6 41.8 4.2 2,113.2 -111.5 -37.6 3859.8 -246.5

2079 37.1 41.5 4.4 2,108.7 -111.1 -37.1 3896.9 -248.1

2080 36.6 41.2 4.6 2,104.1 -110.7 -36.6 3933.5 -249.6

2081 36.2 40.9 4.8 2,099.4 -110.2 -36.2 3969.7 -251.2

2082 35.7 40.6 4.9 2,094.5 -109.8 -35.7 4005.4 -252.7

2083 35.3 40.3 5.0 2,089.5 -109.4 -35.3 4040.7 -254.2

2084 34.8 40.0 5.1 2,084.3 -109.0 -34.8 4075.5 -255.6

2085 34.4 39.6 5.2 2,079.1 -108.7 -34.4 4109.9 -257.1

4,109.9 2,030.8 -2,079.1 -4109.9

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report Office of the Chief Actuary

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9% Social Security Administration

1 Specified General Fund transfers reimburse the optional 2 percent payroll tax cut to the Trust Funds, so that the Trust Funds are unaffected.

December 2, 2011

Total 2011-85

Table 1b - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1 (Present Value Dollars

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2011

Representative Landry "Social Security Preservation through Individual Choice Enhancement Act"
Year

Specified 

General Fund 

Transfers 1

Basic Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Cash Flow

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End of Year

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Balance

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2012 73.1 0.0 -73.1 74.6 -74.6 -73.1 74.6 -74.6

2013 81.9 0.0 -81.9 161.6 -86.9 -81.9 161.6 -86.9

2014 86.6 0.0 -86.5 257.0 -95.5 -86.6 257.1 -95.5

2015 91.2 0.1 -91.2 361.5 -104.5 -91.2 361.6 -104.6

2016 96.1 0.2 -95.9 475.7 -114.2 -96.1 476.0 -114.3

2017 100.8 0.3 -100.6 600.0 -124.3 -100.8 600.6 -124.6

2018 106.0 0.5 -105.5 735.4 -135.4 -106.0 736.5 -136.0

2019 111.0 0.8 -110.2 882.8 -147.4 -111.0 884.8 -148.3

2020 115.9 1.2 -114.7 1,042.9 -160.1 -115.9 1046.2 -161.4

2021 120.9 3.0 -117.9 1,215.1 -172.2 -120.9 1221.7 -175.5

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

1 Specified General Fund transfers reimburse the optional 2 percent payroll tax cut to the Trust Funds, so that the Trust Funds are unaffected.

Billions of Nominal Dollars

Table 1b.n - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI (Nominal Dollars)

Representative Landry "Social Security Preservation through Individual Choice Enhancement Act"

December 2, 2011
Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

2011 4.85 4.85 4.55 4.85 4.85 4.55

2012 4.84 4.84 4.71 4.84 4.84 4.71

2013 4.84 4.84 4.73 4.84 4.84 4.73

2014 4.86 4.86 4.76 4.86 4.86 4.76

2015 4.89 4.89 4.78 4.89 4.89 4.78

2016 4.95 4.95 4.82 4.95 4.95 4.82

2017 5.02 5.02 4.85 5.02 5.02 4.85

2018 5.10 5.10 4.88 5.10 5.10 4.88

2019 5.21 5.21 4.89 5.20 5.20 4.89

2020 5.32 5.32 4.89 5.32 5.32 4.89

2021 5.43 5.43 4.89 5.42 5.42 4.89

2022 5.53 5.53 4.88 5.51 5.51 4.88

2023 5.63 5.63 4.88 5.60 5.60 4.88

2024 5.72 5.72 4.87 5.68 5.68 4.87

2025 5.81 5.81 4.87 5.76 5.76 4.87

2026 5.89 5.89 4.87 5.84 5.84 4.86

2027 5.96 5.96 4.86 5.90 5.90 4.86

2028 6.02 6.02 4.86 5.96 5.96 4.86

2029 6.08 6.08 4.86 6.01 6.01 4.85

2030 6.12 6.12 4.85 6.05 6.05 4.85

2031 6.15 6.15 4.85 6.07 6.07 4.85

2032 6.18 6.18 4.85 6.09 6.09 4.84

2033 6.20 6.20 4.85 6.10 6.10 4.84

2034 6.21 6.21 4.84 6.10 6.10 4.84

2035 6.22 6.22 4.84 6.09 6.09 4.83

2036 6.22 5.05 4.83 6.08 4.83 4.83

2037 6.21 4.83 4.83 6.07 4.82 4.82

2038 6.20 4.82 4.82 6.04 4.82 4.82

2039 6.18 4.82 4.82 6.01 4.81 4.81

2040 6.16 4.81 4.81 5.98 4.81 4.81

2041 6.14 4.81 4.81 5.94 4.80 4.80

2042 6.11 4.80 4.80 5.91 4.79 4.79

2043 6.09 4.79 4.79 5.87 4.78 4.78

2044 6.08 4.79 4.79 5.84 4.78 4.78

2045 6.06 4.78 4.78 5.80 4.77 4.77

2046 6.04 4.77 4.77 5.77 4.76 4.76

2047 6.02 4.77 4.77 5.73 4.75 4.75

2048 6.01 4.76 4.76 5.70 4.75 4.75

2049 5.99 4.75 4.75 5.67 4.74 4.74

2050 5.98 4.74 4.74 5.64 4.73 4.73

2051 5.97 4.74 4.74 5.61 4.72 4.72

2052 5.96 4.73 4.73 5.58 4.72 4.72

2053 5.95 4.73 4.73 5.56 4.71 4.71

2054 5.95 4.72 4.72 5.54 4.70 4.70

2055 5.95 4.71 4.71 5.53 4.70 4.70

2056 5.95 4.71 4.71 5.51 4.69 4.69

2057 5.94 4.70 4.70 5.50 4.68 4.68

2058 5.94 4.69 4.69 5.49 4.67 4.67

2059 5.94 4.69 4.69 5.48 4.67 4.67

2060 5.93 4.68 4.68 5.47 4.66 4.66

2061 5.93 4.68 4.68 5.45 4.66 4.66

2062 5.93 4.67 4.67 5.44 4.65 4.65

2063 5.92 4.66 4.66 5.43 4.64 4.64

2064 5.92 4.66 4.66 5.42 4.64 4.64

2065 5.91 4.65 4.65 5.42 4.63 4.63

2066 5.91 4.64 4.64 5.41 4.62 4.62

2067 5.91 4.64 4.64 5.41 4.62 4.62

2068 5.91 4.63 4.63 5.40 4.61 4.61

2069 5.92 4.63 4.63 5.40 4.60 4.60

2070 5.92 4.62 4.62 5.40 4.60 4.60

2071 5.92 4.62 4.62 5.41 4.59 4.59

2072 5.92 4.61 4.61 5.41 4.59 4.59

2073 5.93 4.60 4.60 5.41 4.58 4.58

2074 5.94 4.60 4.60 5.41 4.58 4.58

2075 5.94 4.59 4.59 5.41 4.57 4.57

2076 5.94 4.59 4.59 5.42 4.57 4.57

2077 5.95 4.58 4.58 5.42 4.56 4.56

2078 5.96 4.58 4.58 5.42 4.56 4.56

2079 5.96 4.58 4.58 5.43 4.55 4.55

2080 5.97 4.57 4.57 5.43 4.55 4.55

2081 5.98 4.57 4.57 5.43 4.54 4.54

2082 5.98 4.56 4.56 5.44 4.54 4.54

2083 5.99 4.56 4.56 5.44 4.54 4.54

2084 6.00 4.56 4.56 5.45 4.53 4.53

2085 6.01 4.55 4.55 5.46 4.53 4.53

Table 1c - Present Law and Proposal Cost, Expenditures, and Income: As Percent of Gross Domestic Product

December 2, 2011

Social Security Administration

Present Law OASDI Proposal OASDI

Calendar

Year

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Representative Landry "Social Security Preservation through Individual Choice Enhancement Act"
Year

Present Law OASDI

Trust Fund Assets /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

Changes 

in OASDI 

Income

Changes

in OASDI 

Cost

Basic

Changes

in OASDI

Cash Flow

Total Change

Through

End of Year

Proposal OASDI

Trust Fund Assets /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) (5) = cumulative sum(4) (6) = (1)+(5)

2011 2,564.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,564.6

2012 2,545.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,545.0

2013 2,527.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,528.0

2014 2,513.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,513.5

2015 2,496.7 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 2,496.8

2016 2,476.9 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 2,477.1

2017 2,451.1 0.0 -0.2 0.2 0.4 2,451.6

2018 2,417.9 0.0 -0.4 0.3 0.8 2,418.7

2019 2,370.3 0.0 -0.5 0.5 1.3 2,371.7

2020 2,305.9 0.0 -0.8 0.8 2.1 2,308.0

2021 2,224.7 0.0 -1.9 1.9 4.0 2,228.7

2022 2,127.6 -0.1 -3.2 3.1 7.1 2,134.8

2023 2,015.9 -0.1 -4.5 4.3 11.5 2,027.4

2024 1,890.9 -0.2 -5.7 5.5 17.0 1,907.8

2025 1,753.6 -0.2 -6.8 6.6 23.5 1,777.1

2026 1,605.5 -0.3 -7.3 7.1 30.6 1,636.1

2027 1,448.1 -0.3 -8.0 7.7 38.3 1,486.4

2028 1,282.9 -0.3 -8.7 8.4 46.7 1,329.6

2029 1,111.6 -0.4 -9.5 9.1 55.8 1,167.4

2030 935.7 -0.4 -10.4 10.0 65.8 1,001.6

2031 757.0 -0.5 -11.5 11.0 76.8 833.8

2032 576.1 -0.5 -12.6 12.1 88.9 665.0

2033 393.8 -0.6 -13.7 13.1 102.0 495.9

2034 211.4 -0.6 -14.9 14.2 116.3 327.7

2035 29.8 -0.7 -16.0 15.3 131.6 161.4

2036 -150.6 -0.7 -17.2 16.5 148.1 -2.5

2037 -329.1 -0.8 -18.4 17.6 165.7 -163.4

2038 -504.7 -0.9 -19.7 18.9 184.6 -320.1

2039 -676.9 -0.9 -21.1 20.2 204.8 -472.1

2040 -845.5 -1.0 -22.6 21.6 226.3 -619.2

2041 -1,010.4 -1.0 -24.1 23.0 249.4 -761.0

2042 -1,171.6 -1.1 -25.7 24.5 273.9 -897.7

2043 -1,329.5 -1.2 -27.3 26.1 300.0 -1,029.5

2044 -1,484.4 -1.3 -28.9 27.6 327.7 -1,156.8

2045 -1,636.3 -1.3 -30.5 29.2 356.9 -1,279.5

2046 -1,785.2 -1.4 -32.2 30.8 387.7 -1,397.5

2047 -1,931.5 -1.5 -33.9 32.4 420.1 -1,511.3

2048 -2,075.1 -1.5 -35.5 33.9 454.1 -1,621.0

2049 -2,216.1 -1.6 -37.0 35.4 489.5 -1,726.6

2050 -2,354.8 -1.7 -38.5 36.9 526.4 -1,828.4

2051 -2,491.4 -1.7 -40.0 38.3 564.7 -1,926.8

2052 -2,626.4 -1.8 -41.4 39.6 604.3 -2,022.1

2053 -2,759.9 -1.8 -42.7 40.9 645.2 -2,114.7

2054 -2,892.1 -1.9 -43.9 42.0 687.2 -2,204.9

2055 -3,023.3 -1.9 -44.9 43.0 730.2 -2,293.1

2056 -3,153.5 -2.0 -45.5 43.5 773.7 -2,379.7

2057 -3,282.7 -2.0 -46.1 44.1 817.8 -2,464.9

2058 -3,410.8 -2.0 -46.6 44.5 862.3 -2,548.5

2059 -3,537.8 -2.1 -47.0 44.9 907.2 -2,630.6

2060 -3,663.4 -2.1 -47.3 45.2 952.4 -2,711.0

2061 -3,787.8 -2.1 -47.6 45.5 997.9 -2,789.9

2062 -3,911.0 -2.1 -47.8 45.7 1,043.6 -2,867.4

2063 -4,032.9 -2.1 -47.8 45.7 1,089.3 -2,943.7

2064 -4,153.8 -2.1 -47.7 45.6 1,134.8 -3,018.9

2065 -4,273.6 -2.1 -47.6 45.4 1,180.2 -3,093.4

2066 -4,392.6 -2.1 -47.3 45.2 1,225.5 -3,167.1

2067 -4,510.8 -2.1 -47.1 45.0 1,270.5 -3,240.3

2068 -4,628.3 -2.1 -46.9 44.8 1,315.2 -3,313.0

2069 -4,745.1 -2.1 -46.6 44.5 1,359.7 -3,385.4

2070 -4,861.5 -2.1 -46.3 44.2 1,403.9 -3,457.6

2071 -4,977.2 -2.1 -45.9 43.8 1,447.7 -3,529.5

2072 -5,092.4 -2.1 -45.6 43.5 1,491.3 -3,601.1

2073 -5,207.2 -2.1 -45.3 43.3 1,534.5 -3,672.7

2074 -5,321.6 -2.1 -45.0 43.0 1,577.5 -3,744.1

2075 -5,435.5 -2.0 -44.8 42.7 1,620.2 -3,815.3

2076 -5,548.9 -2.0 -44.5 42.4 1,662.6 -3,886.3

2077 -5,661.8 -2.0 -44.2 42.1 1,704.8 -3,957.1

2078 -5,774.2 -2.0 -43.9 41.8 1,746.6 -4,027.6

2079 -5,886.2 -2.0 -43.6 41.5 1,788.1 -4,098.1

2080 -5,997.7 -2.0 -43.2 41.2 1,829.4 -4,168.3

2081 -6,108.7 -2.0 -42.9 40.9 1,870.3 -4,238.4

2082 -6,219.3 -2.0 -42.6 40.6 1,910.9 -4,308.4

2083 -6,329.5 -2.0 -42.2 40.3 1,951.2 -4,378.3

2084 -6,439.2 -1.9 -41.9 40.0 1,991.2 -4,448.0

2085 -6,548.4 -1.9 -41.5 39.6 2,030.8 -4,517.6

Total 2011-2085 -94.1 -2124.9 2030.8

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%. December 2, 2011

(Billions of Dollars, Present Value on 1-1-2011)

Table 1d - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Assets / Unfunded Obligation

Representative Landry "Social Security Preservation through Individual Choice Enhancement Act"