SOCIAL SECURITY

MEMORANDUM

Date: June 11, 2020 Refer To: TCB

To: Steve Goss, ASA, MAAA

 Chief Actuary

Office of the Chief Actuary

From: Michael Stephens, ASA /s/

 Supervisory Actuary

Office of the Chief Actuary

Subject: Estimated Change in Federal SSI Program Cost for Potential Extension of SSI Eligibility to Residents of 

Certain U.S. Territories—INFORMATION

The Office of the Chief Actuary has prepared estimates of the change in SSI program cost for extending 

SSI eligibility to the residents of Puerto Rico, American Samoa, Guam, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

1 We 

estimate that if such extension were effective October 1, 2020, Federal SSI payments would increase by a 

total of approximately $23.4 billion over the short-range projection period of fiscal years 2021 through 

2030 – approximately $22.7 billion for the extension of SSI eligibility to residents of Puerto Rico, and 

about $0.7 billion on a combined basis for a corresponding extension to residents of the other territories.

In the longer term, we estimate this extension to all four territories would increase Federal SSI program 

cost by about 3.4% annually in calendar year 2030, and decrease slightly on a gradual basis thereafter to 

2.6% in calendar year 2044.

Currently, Puerto Rico, Guam, and the U.S. Virgin Islands are eligible for and participate in the Aid to the 

Aged, Blind, or Disabled (AABD) program; American Samoa is not currently eligible for this program. 2

This program is similar to the means-tested adult assistance programs administered in the States prior to 

the implementation of the SSI program in 1974. The eligibility criteria for the SSI program is 

significantly less restrictive than the eligibility criteria for the AABD program. If SSI eligibility were 

extended to residents of these territories, it would replace the AABD program currently operating in the 

territories. This would increase the number of residents receiving income assistance benefits, as well as 

the amount of benefits, due to the less restrictive eligibility requirements and higher benefit levels under 

the SSI program. Extension of SSI eligibility to residents of these territories would also provide eligibility 

to disabled children that are currently excluded from the AABD program.

The table below presents the estimated change in Federal SSI payments if SSI eligibility were extended to 

the residents of Puerto Rico, American Samoa, Guam, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The estimates assume 

 1 Residents of the Northern Mariana Islands have been eligible for participation in the SSI program since 1978. The 

remaining U.S. Territories not specifically noted are essentially uninhabited.

2 Source: The House Ways and Means Committee Green Book, 2018 edition, table A.2, available on the internet at 

https://greenbook-waysandmeans.house.gov/sites/greenbook.waysandmeans.house.gov/files/Appendix%20A%20-

Table%20A-2.pdf. 
an October 1, 2020 effective date, and are based on the assumptions underlying the projections in the 

2020 SSI Annual Report, in addition to the best available information we have at this time. There would 

be no direct effects on scheduled benefit payments under the Social Security program.

The extension of SSI eligibility to residents of these territories would reduce Federal expenditures under 

the AABD program. We have not directly estimated the offsetting effects on AABD payments. However, 

as of FY 2018, under section 1108 of the Social Security Act, these territories had a combined funding 

ceiling for administration of the AABD, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, and other programs 

of approximately $116 million3

. As this amount includes other programs in addition to AABD, the annual 

reduction in Federal AABD expenditures would be less than $116 million, offsetting less than 10 percent

of the added Federal SSI program cost.

Extension of SSI eligibility to these territories could potentially have effects on eligibility for other 

Federal or Federally funded programs, in particular Medicaid. While Medicaid coverage is currently 

available to residents of these territories, the additional individuals eligible to file for SSI payments would 

also be likely to file for Medicaid benefits as well. These effects are outside the scope of this analysis.

Estimated change in Federal SSI payments for a potential extension of SSI eligibility to residents of 

Puerto Rico, American Samoa, Guam, and the U.S. Virgin Islands,

fiscal years 2021–30

Fiscal year Puerto Rico Other territories Total

Estimated short-range effects (change in nominal dollars, in millions):

2021 $1,857 $36 $1,892

2022 2,441 77 2,518

2023 2,274 73 2,347

2024 2,113 68 2,181

2025 2,298 75 2,372

2026 2,310 76 2,385

2027 2,325 76 2,401

2028 2,520 84 2,604

2029 2,182 73 2,255

2030 2,385 80 2,465

Totals:

2021–25 10,981 329 11,310

2021–30 22,704 718 23,421

Estimated long-range effects (percentage change in baseline Federal SSI payments):

Calendar year 2030 3.3% 0.1% 3.4%

Calendar year 2044 2.5% 0.1% 2.6%

Notes:

1. The estimates are based on the assumptions underlying the projections in the 2020 SSI Annual 

Report, and an effective date of October 1, 2020.

2. Reductions in Federal expenditures under the Aid to the Aged, Blind, or Disabled program due 

to the SSI extension are not reflected in these estimates.

3. Federal SSI payments due on October 1st in fiscal years 2023, 2024, and 2029 are included with 

payments for the prior fiscal year.

4. Totals may not equal the sum of components due to rounding.

cc: Karen Glenn

 3 This amount is established by statute and is not subject to automatic increases.