SOCIAL SECURITY 

Office of the Chief Actuary

SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE MD 21235-0001 

September 12, 2011 

The Honorable Thaddeus McCotter 

House of Representatives 

Washington, D.C. 20515

Dear Mr. McCotter: 

We are writing in response to your request for estimates of the financial effects on Social 

Security and the Federal Budget of a proposal to provide voluntary personal accounts and to 

restore 75-year solvency for Social Security. We have worked closely with Jack Daly and Artur 

Suchorzewski of your staff in developing the proposal. The preliminary estimates provided here 

reflect our understanding of the intent. 

Our preliminary estimates reflect the specifications indicated in this letter. These results do not 

yet include the cost of providing a benefit guarantee, revenue from taxes on benefits and personal 

account distributions in excess of estimated revenue under current law, and illustrative examples 

of Social Security benefit levels and potential annuities from personal account accumulations.

We will provide complete estimates in our final letter in the near future. Please note that we are 

unable to reflect the intended effects of the “spending reduction account” due to the uncertainty 

associated with future discretionary spending. All estimates are based on the intermediate 

assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report. The estimates presented reflect the combined efforts of 

many in our office, but particularly Dan Nickerson, Jason Schultz, Tiffany Bosley, Michael 

Clingman, Katie Kraft, and Kyle Burkhalter. 

The proposal includes the following six provisions: 

1) A voluntary option to participate in a personal account (PA) program that will be

available to all OASDI covered workers (including self-employed workers) who are

under age 50 at the beginning of 2012 (born in 1962 or later). The PA program will be

operated by a central administrative authority (CAA) similar to the Thrift Savings Plan

(TSP) available to Federal employees. Contributions to the PA will be made on behalf of

the worker from the General Fund of the Treasury in amount equal to 5 percent of

OASDI taxable earnings up to $10,000 in 2012, and 2.5 percent for OASDI taxable

earnings above that level. The $10,000 level will be indexed to change in the national

average wage index (AWI) for years after 2012. PA participants will have the option to

have their contributions invested in one or more life-cycle funds offered by the CAA with

an option to alter the allocation among available funds once each year. No withdrawals

would be permitted from the PA accumulations for retirees prior to attaining retirement

eligibility age (62 for retired workers and aged spouses, and 60 for aged surviving

spouses) or, for individuals receiving disabled worker benefits until attaining normal

retirement age. Distributions from PA accounts will be subject to personal income tax in

the same manner as for OASDI benefits.
2

2) Retirement and aged survivor benefits payable from the OASI Trust Fund will be reduced 

from full scheduled levels for PA participants by a percentage of up to 50 percent. The 

reduction percentage for an individual will equal 50 percent multiplied by the ratio of (a) 

the present discounted value (PV) of actual contributions made to the PA program on 

behalf of the individual to (b) the PV of contributions that the individual would have 

made if the PA program had always been available and the individual had always 

participated. The reduction percentage will apply to all benefit amounts payable for 

retirement (including aged spouse benefits) and aged survivor benefits based on the 

earnings record of the participating worker. Young survivors (surviving spouses with a 

child in care as well as surviving child beneficiaries) will be held harmless from this 

provision. For workers who received disabled worker benefits between ages 22 and 61, 

the reduction percentage, which will apply upon conversion to retired worker status at 

normal retirement age, will be adjusted. The adjustment lowers the reduction percentage

by multiplying the reduction percentage by the ratio of (a) the number of years of 

attaining ages 22 through 61 in which the worker did not receive disabled worker benefits 

(or received such benefit for less than half of the year) to (b) 40.

3) Each worker participating in the PA program will be guaranteed that the total of (a) the 

OASI monthly benefit payable with the reduction for PA participation, and (b) the CPIindexed life annuity available for purchase through the CAA utilizing the entire PA 

accumulation and designed to follow the pattern of OASI benefits payable (including 

aged spouse and aged surviving spouse benefits) will be at least equal to the full OASI 

benefit that would have been payable had the worker never participated in the PA 

program. Workers who do not participate in the PA program will receive OASI benefits 

as scheduled under current law. The cost of providing the guarantee will be financed 

from the General Fund of the Treasury.

4) Beginning in 2012, the OASI and DI Trust Funds will have borrowing authority such that 

if at any time in the future the combined assets of the Funds would become exhausted, 

the General Fund of the Treasury will make loans to the Funds sufficient to continue 

paying OASDI benefits on a timely basis. Loans to the Trust Funds will be made in the 

same manner in which the Trust Funds currently invest assets. Loans will be made with 

an interest rate equal to that for special issue securities that are issuable to the Trust 

Funds at that time. Loan balances will be repaid to the General Fund, with accumulated 

interest, when OASDI revenues again exceed cost. 

5) In any year in which OASDI income exceeds the amount necessary to maintain the level 

of the combined OASI and DI Trust Fund assets at a level of 100 percent of program cost 

for the following 12 months, and assets are not projected to fall below that level at any 

time in the next 75 years as projected under the intermediate assumptions of the current 

Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the OASDI program, the excess of income 

needed to maintain the Trust Fund assets of 100 percent of annual program cost will be 

redirected to the General Fund of the Treasury. Redirected OASDI income will be used 

by the Treasury to help finance current PA contributions. If excess OASDI income 

exceeds the amount of current PA contributions, then the remainder will help finance the 
3

guarantee cost and to repay to the General Fund the accumulated value of past PA 

contributions and guarantee costs.

6) The proposal would establish a “spending reduction account” intended to reduce Federal 

discretionary spending by amounts sufficient to offset the cost to the General Fund of the 

Treasury for financing contributions to PAs and for the benefit guarantee under this 

proposal. However, the level of discretionary spending for any future year will only be 

fully specified and realized based on final appropriations in that year, and so is uncertain 

in advance. For this reason, and because almost no discretionary spending is directly 

associated with Social Security financial operations, we are unable to include the 

intended effects of this provision in our estimates. 

The balance of this letter provides a summary of the estimated effects of enacting this proposal 

on the actuarial status of the OASDI program and the Federal Budget, and detailed estimates of 

the effects of enactment. Because of the guaranteed benefit level under the plan, we assume that 

all eligible individuals would participate in the PA program. 

Summary of Effects on Actuarial Status

Figure 1 below illustrates the expected change in the combined Old-Age, Survivors Insurance 

(OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund assets, expressed as a percent of annual 

program cost, with enactment of this proposal.

Note: Trust Fund Ratio for a given year is the ratio of assets in the combined OASI and DI Trust Fund assets at the 

beginning of the year to the cost of the program during the year.

Assuming enactment, the OASDI program would be expected to be solvent until 2038. In the 

year 2038, the combined assets of the OASI and DI Trust Funds would become exhausted and 

loans from the General Fund of the Treasury would be needed in order to continue paying the 
4

scheduled benefits on a timely basis. The total outstanding borrowing by the trust fund is 

estimated to peak, in present value terms, in 2049 and then to begin to be repaid thereafter. The 

borrowing is expected to be fully repaid to the General Fund of the Treasury by the beginning of 

2062, and combined trust fund assets are projected to continue rising thereafter. The combined 

trust fund assets are projected to reach 100 percent of the annual cost of the OASDI program by 

the beginning of 2067. At that time, and thereafter, income to the trust funds in excess of what is 

needed to maintain the assets at 100 percent of annual cost is redirected to the General Fund of 

the Treasury, and so the trust fund ratio to annual cost remains at 100 percent.

Enactment of the proposal would improve the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by 2.22

percent of taxable payroll, replacing the actuarial deficit of 2.22 percent of taxable payroll under 

current law with an actuarial balance of 0.00 percent of payroll. This means that the trust funds 

would achieve an asset level equal to 100 percent of annual program cost at the end of the 75-

year period. Moreover, the trust fund ratio to annual program cost would be stable at the end of 

the period. Thus, while the trust funds are not technically solvent throughout the period (assets 

are negative reflecting necessary borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury between 

2038 and 2062), the positive asset level and the stability of that positive asset level at the end of 

75 years is consistent with sustainable solvency for the OASDI program. 

Figure 2 below illustrates annual projected levels of cost and income as a percent of taxable 

payroll under current law. The figure shows projected levels of cost for present-law scheduled 

and payable benefits (when less than the cost for scheduled benefits) and for benefits under this 

proposal. Under this proposal, the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds become exhausted in 

2038, but borrowing authority under this proposal would permit scheduled benefits to be payable 

on a timely basis throughout the 75-year projection period.
5

It is also useful to consider the projected cost and income for the OASDI program expressed as a 

percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Figure 3 below illustrates these levels under both 

current law and this proposal. 

Plan Specification for Provisions of the McCotter Proposal

The outline on pages 1 and 2 of this letter provide our understanding of the intent of this 

proposal. Estimates provided here are preliminary and in some instances incomplete (cost of 

guarantee, revenue from taxes on personal account distributions, and benefit illustrations are not 

yet available). We will provide fuller details on plan specifications at a later date. In particular, 

we will provide details about the PA accumulations, distributions, and guarantees.

Detailed Financial Results 

Benefit Illustrations

We are unable to provide illustrations of estimated future benefit levels under the plan at this 

time. However, because a guaranteed total payment is assured that will be at least equal to the 

benefits scheduled from the OASDI program under current law without participation in the PA 

program, estimated total payments will be no less than under current law. For retirees who have 

worked only in years after 2011, we assume participation in the PA program throughout their 

working years. As a result, except for those who had received disabled worker benefits between 

ages 22 and 61, benefits paid from the OASI Trust Fund based on earnings to retirees and aged 

survivors would be at a rate of 50 percent of the amount scheduled in the absence of PA 
6

participation. The balance of the scheduled benefit would be made up with an annuity available 

through the CAA purchased with PA accumulation (if the annuity is elected) plus a guarantee 

payment financed by the General Fund of the Treasury (if the available annuity is not enough). 

Trust Fund Operations

Table 1 shows the annual cost and income rates, annual balances, and trust fund ratios for 

OASDI assuming enactment of the proposal. This table also shows the change from present law 

in these cost rates, income rates, and balances. Included at the bottom of this table are 

summarized rates for the 75-year long-range period and the expected year of trust fund 

exhaustion under this proposal. 

Table 1 indicates that the OASDI program is projected to be solvent until 2038, at which time the 

combined trust fund assets would become exhausted and borrowing from the General Fund of 

the Treasury would start. This special borrowing authority is unique to this proposal and thus 

permits continued payment of OASDI scheduled benefits on a timely basis, while incurring debt 

owed to the General Fund of the Treasury. That debt is shown as a negative trust fund ratio at the 

beginning of years 2039 through 2062. Thereafter, the trust fund ratio rises to a stable level of 

100 percent of annual program cost. The actuarial deficit for the OASDI program over the 75-

year projection period would be improved by an estimated 2.22 percent of taxable payroll, from 

an actuarial deficit of 2.22 percent of payroll projected under current law to an actuarial balance 

of 0.00 percent of payroll under the proposal. 

The annual balance for the OASDI program (non-interest income minus cost) would be 

improved for all years after 2023. Because benefit reductions for PA participants increase in 

magnitude gradually over time, annual balances improve gradually. By 2050, annual balances 

are positive as benefit reductions for PA participants begin to exceed the size of annual shortfalls 

projected under current law. Once the trust fund reaches 100 percent of annual program cost, by 

the beginning of 2067, income to the program in excess of that needed to maintain this level of 

trust fund assets is redirected to the General Fund of the Treasury to pay PA contributions. This 

results in small negative annual balances after 2067 because interest on the assets in the trust 

funds alone is then projected to be more than sufficient to maintain the level of the trust fund 

ratio at 100 percent of annual program cost. The excess of interest contributes to the financing of 

current benefits, permitting retained non-interest income (tax revenue) to be less than the 

ongoing cost of the program. 

Program Loans, Transfers, and Assets

Column 1 of table 1a provides estimates of the annual amounts of borrowing and repayment of 

loans from the General Fund of the Treasury to the trust funds that permit payment of full 

scheduled OASDI benefits on a timely basis after the trust fund assets are exhausted. Column 2 

provides the estimated amount of outstanding debt owed by the trust funds to the General Fund 

of the Treasury. 

Columns 3 and 4 of table 1a present the expected amount of income to the OASDI program that 

is redirected to the General Fund of the Treasury after the trust funds reach a permanent level of 

100 percent of annual program cost, in percent of taxable payroll and present value dollars, 
7

respectively. Column 5 provides the accumulated amount of income redirected at the end of each 

year in present value dollars. 

Column 6 of table 1a provides a projection of asset level for the combined OASI and DI Trust 

Funds under the proposal, expressed in present value January 1, 2011 dollars, using projected 

Trust Fund interest rates. Negative asset levels are shown for years in which the trust funds have 

outstanding loan balances owed to the General Fund of the Treasury. For purpose of comparison, 

column 9 shows the net OASDI Trust Fund assets, expressed in present-value dollars, for a 

theoretical Social Security program where borrowing authority is assumed for the Trust Funds, 

but current law is otherwise unchanged. Column 10 is the same as column 9 because there are no 

specified transfers between the Trust Funds and the General Fund of the Treasury. Gross 

Domestic Product, expressed in present value dollars, is shown in column 8 for comparison with 

other values in the table. 

The level of estimated accumulation of assets in PA accounts in column 7 is not yet available (to

be determined). The sum of OASDI combined Trust Fund assets and PA assets may be viewed 

as total system assets. When available, this amount will be substantially higher than Trust Fund 

assets alone, reflecting the substantial contributions made starting in 2012 from the General Fund 

of the Treasury to finance PA contributions. 

Effect on the Federal Budget and Debt

Table 1b shows the preliminary projected effects of enactment of this proposal, in present value

discounted dollars, on the Federal budget and debt from both the unified budget perspective and 

the on-budget perspective. Table 1b.n provides the estimated nominal-dollar effects of 

enactment of the proposal for years 2011 through 2021. All values in these tables represent the 

amount of the change that would be expected due to enactment of the proposal, from the level 

that would be projected under current law reflecting budget-scoring conventions. 

The first 5 columns in these tables provide the annual amounts of components of change under 

this proposal that potentially affect the Federal Budget and debt levels. Column 1 reflects the 

annual reductions in OASDI scheduled benefit payments under the proposal, including related 

effects on the personal income tax on OASDI benefits and PA distributions that is provided to 

the OASDI Trust Funds. Revenues from taxation of PA distributions are not yet estimated, so a 

preliminary estimate is included here that is unchanged from the revenue under current law. The 

final estimate of revenue for taxation of benefits and PA distributions is expected to be 

somewhat greater than shown here on a preliminary basis. Column 2 indicates the annual 

amounts of PA contributions made from the General Fund of the Treasury, including amounts

financed with trust fund income. Column 3 provides the projected annual amounts of OASDI 

income that would be redirected to the General Fund of the Treasury after the combined OASDI 

Trust Fund asset level rises permanently to at least 100 percent of annual program cost. This is 

used to finance a portion of the PA contributions. When this amount redirected from the Trust 

Funds to the General Fund exceeds the PA contributions, the excess will be applied to pay a 

portion of the cost of the guarantee. When redirected OASDI income exceeds both current-year 

PA contributions and guarantee cost, any remainder will be used to repay the accumulated value 

of past PA contributions and guarantee costs financed from the General Fund of the Treasury. 

Column 4 is to provide the total estimated annual expected cost of the guarantee under the 
8

proposal that will be financed from the General Fund of the Treasury. The cost for the guarantee 

is not available at this time and will be added later when a final valuation of the proposal is 

completed. Column 5 indicates the annual amounts of borrowing from or repayment to the 

General Fund of the Treasury by the combined OASDI Trust Funds to assure timely payment of 

scheduled benefits. Note that we are unable to reflect the intended effects of the “spending 

reduction account” due to the uncertainty associated with future discretionary spending. . 

On-Budget Perspective: Total Federal Debt

The OASDI program is accounted for on an off-budget basis in the Federal Budget and therefore 

does not directly affect the on-budget expenditures or balances. In addition, the OASDI program 

has no direct net effect on the total Federal debt liability, which is comprised of publicly held 

debt plus debt owed to the Federal trust funds. Any accumulated assets in the trust funds, which 

are liabilities of the U.S. Treasury, would instead be borrowed from and owed to the public if the 

trust funds had not run net surpluses over past years. Any changes in OASDI cash flow from this 

or other OASDI legislation do not directly affect total Federal debt, or on-budget annual 

balances. For these reasons, the reductions in OASDI benefit payments net of revenue from taxes 

on benefits and PA distributions under the proposal (column 1) do not affect the on-budget 

annual balances or the total Federal debt. 

Under this proposal, however, three of the other four components do have implications for the 

total federal debt (column 10) and on-budget annual cash flow (column 9). These include:

• The total PA contributions financed by the General Fund which are increases in Federal 

expenditures (column 2),

• The total cost of the guarantee that is financed by the General Fund of the Treasury,

which is an additional Federal expenditure (column 4), and

• The amount of OASDI income that is redirected from the trust funds to the General Fund 

of the Treasury, which are increases in on-budget revenue (column 3).

The borrowing activity by the Trust Funds from the General Fund of the Treasury provided in 

this proposal (column 5) does not alter the total Federal debt or on-budget annual balances

because such borrowing is presumed to occur under standard budget scoring convention.

Unified Budget Perspective: Publicly-Held Debt

Annual unified budget balances would be affected under this proposal by the amounts indicated 

for reduction in scheduled OASDI benefits net of change in tax on benefits and PA distributions

(column 1), total contributions to PAs (column 2), and the total expected cost of the guarantee

(column 4). Transfer of excess Trust Fund income not needed to maintain assets at 100 percent 

of annual program cost does affect publicly held debt, as this revenue would have reduced the 

need to borrow from the public in the absence of this transfer. Loan activity between the Trust 

Funds and the General Fund of the Treasury (column 5) does not alter the annual unified budget 

balances or publicly held debt because such borrowing is presumed to occur under standard 

budget scoring convention. 

The projected increase in publicly held debt under this proposal is about $0.5 trillion by the end 

of 2085. The increase in total Federal debt is $7.4 trillion by the end of 2085, because reduction 
9

in OASDI net benefits (column 1) and income redirected from the Trust Funds to the General 

Fund (column 3) do not affect total Federal debt. These values are preliminary, as they do not 

reflect either any net increase in revenue from taxing benefits and PA distributions, or the cost of 

the guarantee. It is important to note that these estimates are based on the intermediate 

assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report and thus are not consistent with estimates made by the 

OMB or the CBO based on their assumptions. 

Annual Trust Fund Operations as a Percent of GDP

Table 1c provides annual cost, annual expenditures (on a payable basis), and annual non-interest 

income, for the OASDI program expressed as a percentage of GDP. These values are shown for 

both present-law and assuming enactment of the proposal. Showing the annual trust fund flows 

as a percent of GDP provides an additional perspective on these trust fund operations in relation 

to the total value of goods and services produced in the United States.

Effects on Trust Fund Assets and Unfunded Obligations

Table 1d provides preliminary estimates of the changes due to the proposal in the level of 

projected trust fund assets under present law and, for years after trust fund exhaustion, the level 

of unfunded obligations under present law. All values in the table are expressed in present-value 

discounted dollars. For the 75-year long-range period as a whole, the present-law unfunded 

obligation of $6.5 trillion in present value is replaced with a positive trust fund balance of $0.4 

trillion. This change is the combination of the following: 

• $1.7 trillion contribution of trust fund income to Personal Accounts and guarantee 

costs (redirected to the General Fund for this purpose) (column 2),

• $0.0 trillion preliminary net change in revenue to the trust funds from taxation of 

benefits and PA distributions (column 3), and

• $8.6 trillion decrease in cost due to reduction in OASI benefits (column 5).

We hope these estimates will be helpful. Please let me know if we may provide further 

assistance.

 Sincerely,

Stephen C. Goss, Chief Actuary

 Alice H. Wade, Deputy Chief Actuary

 Christopher J. Chaplain, Supervisory Actuary

Enclosures 
 McCotter Proposal for Personal Accounts with OASI Benefit Reduction - Assume 100 Percent Participation 

Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2011 13.35 12.52 -0.82 353 0.00 0.00 0.00

2012 13.23 12.87 -0.36 347 0.00 0.00 0.00

2013 13.18 12.87 -0.31 341 0.00 0.00 0.00

2014 13.18 12.92 -0.27 334 0.00 0.00 0.00

2015 13.24 12.94 -0.30 328 0.00 0.00 0.00

2016 13.33 12.97 -0.36 321 0.00 0.00 0.00

2017 13.46 13.00 -0.46 314 0.00 0.00 0.00

2018 13.62 13.03 -0.59 306 0.00 0.00 0.00

2019 13.88 13.04 -0.84 296 0.00 0.00 0.00

2020 14.20 13.06 -1.14 284 0.00 0.00 0.00

2021 14.52 13.08 -1.44 272 0.00 0.00 0.00

2022 14.83 13.10 -1.73 259 0.00 0.00 0.00

2023 15.13 13.12 -2.01 245 0.00 0.00 0.00

2024 15.39 13.13 -2.26 230 -0.01 0.00 0.01

2025 15.63 13.15 -2.48 215 -0.04 0.00 0.04

2026 15.84 13.16 -2.67 200 -0.09 0.00 0.09

2027 16.01 13.18 -2.83 184 -0.14 0.00 0.14

2028 16.14 13.19 -2.95 168 -0.20 0.00 0.20

2029 16.23 13.20 -3.03 151 -0.29 0.00 0.29

2030 16.26 13.21 -3.05 134 -0.40 0.00 0.40

2031 16.25 13.22 -3.03 118 -0.51 0.00 0.51

2032 16.22 13.23 -2.99 101 -0.64 0.00 0.64

2033 16.16 13.23 -2.93 84 -0.77 0.00 0.77

2034 16.08 13.24 -2.84 68 -0.90 0.00 0.90

2035 15.97 13.24 -2.73 52 -1.04 0.00 1.04

2036 15.85 13.25 -2.60 36 -1.18 0.00 1.18

2037 15.71 13.25 -2.46 21 -1.33 0.00 1.33

2038 15.54 13.25 -2.29 6 * -1.48 0.00 1.48

2039 15.35 13.25 -2.11 -9 * -1.63 0.00 1.63

2040 15.16 13.25 -1.92 -22 * -1.79 0.00 1.79

2041 14.96 13.25 -1.72 -36 * -1.95 0.00 1.95

2042 14.76 13.25 -1.51 -48 * -2.12 0.00 2.12

2043 14.55 13.25 -1.31 -59 * -2.29 0.00 2.29

2044 14.35 13.25 -1.10 -70 * -2.46 0.00 2.46

2045 14.14 13.24 -0.90 -79 * -2.65 0.00 2.65

2046 13.93 13.24 -0.68 -87 * -2.83 0.00 2.83

2047 13.71 13.24 -0.47 -95 * -3.02 0.00 3.02

2048 13.50 13.24 -0.26 -101 * -3.22 0.00 3.22

2049 13.29 13.24 -0.04 -105 * -3.41 0.00 3.41

2050 13.07 13.24 0.17 -109 * -3.61 0.00 3.61

2051 12.87 13.24 0.38 -110 * -3.81 0.00 3.81

2052 12.67 13.25 0.58 -110 * -4.01 0.00 4.01

2053 12.47 13.25 0.77 -109 * -4.21 0.00 4.21

2054 12.29 13.25 0.96 -106 * -4.41 0.00 4.41

2055 12.11 13.25 1.14 -101 * -4.61 0.00 4.61

2056 11.93 13.25 1.32 -94 * -4.81 0.00 4.81

2057 11.77 13.25 1.49 -85 * -5.00 0.00 5.00

2058 11.60 13.26 1.65 -75 * -5.18 0.00 5.18

2059 11.45 13.26 1.81 -62 * -5.35 0.00 5.35

2060 11.30 13.26 1.96 -48 * -5.50 0.00 5.50

2061 11.17 13.26 2.09 -32 * -5.65 0.00 5.65

2062 11.04 13.26 2.22 -14 * -5.78 0.00 5.78

2063 10.93 13.26 2.33 6 -5.91 0.00 5.91

2064 10.83 13.26 2.44 28 -6.02 0.00 6.02

2065 10.73 13.27 2.53 51 -6.13 0.00 6.13

2066 10.65 13.27 2.61 75 -6.24 0.00 6.24

2067 10.58 13.12 2.54 100 -6.33 -0.15 6.18

2068 10.51 10.40 -0.11 100 -6.42 -2.87 3.56

2069 10.46 10.35 -0.11 100 -6.51 -2.92 3.59

2070 10.41 10.30 -0.11 100 -6.59 -2.97 3.62

2071 10.37 10.26 -0.11 100 -6.66 -3.01 3.65

2072 10.34 10.23 -0.11 100 -6.73 -3.05 3.68

2073 10.31 10.20 -0.11 100 -6.80 -3.08 3.72

2074 10.29 10.18 -0.10 100 -6.86 -3.10 3.75

2075 10.27 10.16 -0.10 100 -6.91 -3.12 3.79

2076 10.25 10.15 -0.10 100 -6.96 -3.14 3.82

2077 10.25 10.14 -0.10 100 -7.00 -3.15 3.85

2078 10.24 10.14 -0.10 100 -7.05 -3.16 3.89

2079 10.24 10.14 -0.10 100 -7.08 -3.16 3.92

2080 10.24 10.14 -0.10 100 -7.12 -3.16 3.96

2081 10.25 10.14 -0.10 100 -7.15 -3.16 4.00

2082 10.26 10.15 -0.10 100 -7.18 -3.15 4.03

2083 10.27 10.16 -0.10 100 -7.21 -3.14 4.07

2084 10.28 10.18 -0.10 100 -7.24 -3.13 4.11

2085 10.29 10.19 -0.10 100 -7.26 -3.12 4.14

2086 10.31 10.20 -0.10 100 -7.29 -3.11 4.18

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Change in 

Cost rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

13.47% 13.47% 0.00% 2038 -2.77% -0.55% 2.22%

* In this year, the trust funds would have debt in the form of loans from the General Fund of the Treasury.

1 Under present law the year of exhaustion is 2037

Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio - Preliminary Estimates

Proposal

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of present-law

taxable payroll

Change in Present Law

Year of 

Exhaustion1

Summarized Rates: OASDI

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report

September 12, 2011

Summarized Rates: OASDI

2011 - 2085

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration
 McCotter Proposal for Personal Accounts with OASI Benefit Reduction - Assume 100 Percent Participation 

Annual

Amounts

Accumulated as 

of End of Year

Percentage

of Payroll

Annual

Amounts

Accumulated as 

of End of Year

Gross Domestic 

Product

Without General

Fund Transfers

With Plan General

Fund Transfers

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,564.6 TBD 14,904.1 2,564.6 2,564.6

2012 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,545.0 TBD 14,951.5 2,545.0 2,545.0

2013 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,527.9 TBD 15,099.9 2,527.9 2,527.9

2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,513.4 TBD 15,251.0 2,513.4 2,513.4

2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,496.7 TBD 15,351.9 2,496.7 2,496.7

2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,476.9 TBD 15,378.4 2,476.9 2,476.9

2017 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,451.1 TBD 15,366.5 2,451.1 2,451.1

2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,417.9 TBD 15,366.9 2,417.9 2,417.9

2019 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,370.3 TBD 15,345.6 2,370.3 2,370.3

2020 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,305.9 TBD 15,301.1 2,305.9 2,305.9

2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,224.7 TBD 15,242.3 2,224.7 2,224.7

2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,127.7 TBD 15,159.1 2,127.6 2,127.6

2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,015.9 TBD 15,052.7 2,015.9 2,015.9

2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,891.6 TBD 14,924.4 1,890.9 1,890.9

2025 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,756.8 TBD 14,765.8 1,753.6 1,753.6

2026 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,613.4 TBD 14,596.0 1,605.5 1,605.5

2027 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,463.4 TBD 14,436.0 1,448.1 1,448.1

2028 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,308.9 TBD 14,276.4 1,282.9 1,282.9

2029 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,152.5 TBD 14,114.5 1,111.6 1,111.6

2030 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 997.0 TBD 13,958.1 935.7 935.7

2031 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 844.3 TBD 13,813.5 757.0 757.0

2032 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 695.4 TBD 13,670.9 576.1 576.1

2033 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 551.2 TBD 13,528.0 393.8 393.8

2034 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 413.0 TBD 13,387.2 211.4 211.4

2035 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 281.7 TBD 13,245.5 29.8 29.8

2036 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 158.0 TBD 13,107.1 -150.6 -150.6

2037 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 42.5 TBD 12,971.3 -329.1 -329.1

2038 63.8 63.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 -63.8 TBD 12,843.4 -504.7 -504.7

2039 96.6 160.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -160.3 TBD 12,714.4 -676.9 -676.9

2040 86.8 247.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -247.1 TBD 12,582.3 -845.5 -845.5

2041 76.7 323.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 -323.8 TBD 12,453.7 -1,010.4 -1,010.4

2042 66.7 390.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 -390.6 TBD 12,326.2 -1,171.6 -1,171.6

2043 56.9 447.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 -447.5 TBD 12,197.5 -1,329.5 -1,329.5

2044 47.4 494.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 -494.9 TBD 12,069.4 -1,484.4 -1,484.4

2045 37.8 532.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 -532.7 TBD 11,941.2 -1,636.3 -1,636.3

2046 28.3 561.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -561.0 TBD 11,813.2 -1,785.2 -1,785.2

2047 19.0 580.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -580.0 TBD 11,684.0 -1,931.5 -1,931.5

2048 9.9 590.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -590.0 TBD 11,555.8 -2,075.1 -2,075.1

2049 1.0 591.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -591.0 TBD 11,428.4 -2,216.1 -2,216.1

2050 -7.6 583.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -583.4 TBD 11,301.9 -2,354.8 -2,354.8

2051 -15.7 567.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 -567.7 TBD 11,175.5 -2,491.4 -2,491.4

2052 -23.5 544.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -544.2 TBD 11,049.7 -2,626.4 -2,626.4

2053 -30.8 513.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -513.4 TBD 10,924.7 -2,759.9 -2,759.9

2054 -37.7 475.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 -475.7 TBD 10,800.1 -2,892.1 -2,892.1

2055 -44.1 431.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 -431.6 TBD 10,677.6 -3,023.3 -3,023.3

2056 -50.1 381.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 -381.5 TBD 10,555.1 -3,153.5 -3,153.5

2057 -55.8 325.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 -325.7 TBD 10,434.5 -3,282.7 -3,282.7

2058 -61.1 264.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 -264.7 TBD 10,315.5 -3,410.8 -3,410.8

2059 -65.9 198.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 -198.7 TBD 10,198.7 -3,537.8 -3,537.8

2060 -70.4 128.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -128.4 TBD 10,084.5 -3,663.4 -3,663.4

2061 -74.3 54.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -54.1 TBD 9,971.5 -3,787.8 -3,787.8

2062 -54.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.6 TBD 9,860.0 -3,911.0 -3,911.0

2063 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 104.3 TBD 9,750.1 -4,032.9 -4,032.9

2064 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 187.4 TBD 9,640.9 -4,153.8 -4,153.8

2065 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 272.6 TBD 9,532.4 -4,273.6 -4,273.6

2066 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 359.5 TBD 9,425.1 -4,392.6 -4,392.6

2067 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 5.1 442.7 TBD 9,319.2 -4,510.8 -4,510.8

2068 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.8 99.9 437.0 TBD 9,214.2 -4,628.3 -4,628.3

2069 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.4 195.4 431.5 TBD 9,109.6 -4,745.1 -4,745.1

2070 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.8 291.1 426.0 TBD 9,005.9 -4,861.5 -4,861.5

2071 0.0 0.0 0.1 95.9 387.0 420.6 TBD 8,903.0 -4,977.2 -4,977.2

2072 0.0 0.0 0.1 95.8 482.9 415.3 TBD 8,801.0 -5,092.4 -5,092.4

2073 0.0 0.0 0.1 95.5 578.4 410.0 TBD 8,699.7 -5,207.2 -5,207.2

2074 0.0 0.0 0.1 95.0 673.4 404.8 TBD 8,599.7 -5,321.6 -5,321.6

2075 0.0 0.0 0.1 94.4 767.8 399.7 TBD 8,500.5 -5,435.5 -5,435.5

2076 0.0 0.0 0.1 93.7 861.5 394.6 TBD 8,402.2 -5,548.9 -5,548.9

2077 0.0 0.0 0.1 92.8 954.3 389.6 TBD 8,304.6 -5,661.8 -5,661.8

2078 0.0 0.0 0.1 91.8 1,046.1 384.7 TBD 8,207.6 -5,774.2 -5,774.2

2079 0.0 0.0 0.1 90.7 1,136.8 379.8 TBD 8,111.3 -5,886.2 -5,886.2

2080 0.0 0.0 0.1 89.6 1,226.4 375.0 TBD 8,015.9 -5,997.7 -5,997.7

2081 0.0 0.0 0.1 88.3 1,314.7 370.3 TBD 7,921.4 -6,108.7 -6,108.7

2082 0.0 0.0 0.1 87.0 1,401.7 365.6 TBD 7,827.9 -6,219.3 -6,219.3

2083 0.0 0.0 0.1 85.7 1,487.4 361.0 TBD 7,734.9 -6,329.5 -6,329.5

2084 0.0 0.0 0.1 84.3 1,571.8 356.5 TBD 7,642.9 -6,439.2 -6,439.2

2085 0.0 0.0 0.1 83.0 1,654.7 352.0 TBD 7,552.1 -6,548.4 -6,548.4

Total 2011-2085 0.0 1654.7

Based on the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report Office of the Chief Actuary

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9% Social Security Administration

1

 Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption

 that the law is modified to permit borrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury.

Proposal 

Personal 

Account Assets 

at End of Year

September 12, 2011

Table 1a - General Fund Loans, Trust Fund Redirections, OASDI Trust Fund Assets, and Theoretical OASDI Assets - Preliminary Estimates

Calendar

Year

Present Value in Billions as of 1-1-2011

Proposal

Net OASDI

Trust Fund

Assets (Debt) 

at End of Year

Proposal Loans, Repayments and Redirections between the Trust Funds and the 

General Fund

General Fund Loans to the Trust 

Funds (+) and Repayments (-)

Present Values in Billions as of 

1/1/2011

Present Values in Billions as of 

1/1/2011

Theoretical Social Security1

with Borrowing Authority

Net OASDI Trust Fund Assets at End of 

Year

Trust Fund Income Redirected to the General 

Fund for PA Contributions and Benefit 

Guarantees
 McCotter Proposal for Personal Accounts with OASI Benefit Reduction - Assume 100 Percent Participation 

Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Cash Flow2

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End Of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

(6)

=(1)-(2)-(4) (7)

(8)=(6)+Change in 

Interest

(9)

=-(2)+(3)-(4) (10)

2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 TBD 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2012 0.0 106.3 0.0 TBD 0.0 -106.3 106.3 -106.3 -106.3 106.3

2013 0.0 118.1 0.0 TBD 0.0 -118.1 224.4 -122.5 -118.1 224.4

2014 0.0 123.5 0.0 TBD 0.0 -123.5 347.9 -133.0 -123.5 347.9

2015 0.0 128.7 0.0 TBD 0.0 -128.7 476.6 -143.6 -128.7 476.6

2016 0.0 133.7 0.0 TBD 0.0 -133.7 610.3 -154.3 -133.7 610.3

2017 0.0 138.2 0.0 TBD 0.0 -138.2 748.6 -164.9 -138.2 748.6

2018 0.0 142.8 0.0 TBD 0.0 -142.8 891.3 -176.4 -142.8 891.3

2019 0.0 146.4 0.0 TBD 0.0 -146.4 1,037.7 -187.4 -146.4 1,037.7

2020 0.0 149.5 0.0 TBD 0.0 -149.5 1,187.2 -198.2 -149.5 1,187.2

2021 0.0 152.0 0.0 TBD 0.0 -152.0 1,339.3 -209.5 -152.0 1,339.3

2022 0.0 154.1 0.0 TBD 0.0 -154.1 1,493.4 -221.0 -154.1 1,493.4

2023 0.0 155.8 0.0 TBD 0.0 -155.8 1,649.2 -232.6 -155.8 1,649.2

2024 0.7 156.8 0.0 TBD 0.0 -156.1 1,805.3 -243.6 -156.8 1,806.0

2025 2.5 157.3 0.0 TBD 0.0 -154.8 1,960.1 -253.5 -157.3 1,963.3

2026 4.7 157.3 0.0 TBD 0.0 -152.6 2,112.8 -259.7 -157.3 2,120.6

2027 7.4 157.1 0.0 TBD 0.0 -149.7 2,262.5 -265.2 -157.1 2,277.8

2028 10.7 156.6 0.0 TBD 0.0 -145.9 2,408.4 -269.6 -156.6 2,434.4

2029 15.0 155.8 0.0 TBD 0.0 -140.8 2,549.2 -272.4 -155.8 2,590.2

2030 20.3 154.8 0.0 TBD 0.0 -134.5 2,683.6 -273.8 -154.8 2,744.9

2031 26.0 153.6 0.0 TBD 0.0 -127.6 2,811.3 -274.3 -153.6 2,898.6

2032 32.0 152.5 0.0 TBD 0.0 -120.6 2,931.8 -274.2 -152.5 3,051.1

2033 38.1 151.4 0.0 TBD 0.0 -113.3 3,045.1 -273.5 -151.4 3,202.5

2034 44.2 150.1 0.0 TBD 0.0 -105.9 3,151.0 -272.4 -150.1 3,352.6

2035 50.3 148.9 0.0 TBD 0.0 -98.5 3,249.6 -270.7 -148.9 3,501.5

2036 56.6 147.5 0.0 TBD 0.0 -90.9 3,340.5 -268.5 -147.5 3,649.0

2037 63.0 145.9 0.0 TBD 0.0 -82.9 3,423.3 -265.4 -145.9 3,794.9

2038 69.4 144.3 0.0 TBD 63.8 -74.9 3,498.2 -262.0 -144.3 3,939.2

2039 75.6 142.7 0.0 TBD 96.6 -67.0 3,565.3 -258.2 -142.7 4,081.8

2040 81.9 141.0 0.0 TBD 86.8 -59.2 3,624.4 -254.0 -141.0 4,222.9

2041 88.1 139.4 0.0 TBD 76.7 -51.3 3,675.7 -249.4 -139.4 4,362.3

2042 94.5 137.8 0.0 TBD 66.7 -43.3 3,719.0 -244.2 -137.8 4,500.1

2043 101.0 136.2 0.0 TBD 56.9 -35.2 3,754.3 -238.5 -136.2 4,636.3

2044 107.5 134.6 0.0 TBD 47.4 -27.1 3,781.3 -232.2 -134.6 4,770.9

2045 114.1 133.0 0.0 TBD 37.8 -18.9 3,800.2 -225.5 -133.0 4,903.8

2046 120.6 131.3 0.0 TBD 28.3 -10.7 3,810.9 -218.4 -131.3 5,035.2

2047 127.2 129.7 0.0 TBD 19.0 -2.5 3,813.5 -210.8 -129.7 5,164.9

2048 133.7 128.1 0.0 TBD 9.9 5.6 3,807.9 -202.8 -128.1 5,293.0

2049 140.0 126.5 0.0 TBD 1.0 13.5 3,794.4 -194.6 -126.5 5,419.5

2050 146.3 124.9 0.0 TBD -7.6 21.3 3,773.0 -186.0 -124.9 5,544.4

2051 152.4 123.4 0.0 TBD -15.7 29.0 3,744.0 -177.2 -123.4 5,667.8

2052 158.4 121.8 0.0 TBD -23.5 36.6 3,707.4 -168.0 -121.8 5,789.6

2053 164.3 120.3 0.0 TBD -30.8 44.0 3,663.3 -158.6 -120.3 5,909.8

2054 169.9 118.7 0.0 TBD -37.7 51.2 3,612.1 -149.0 -118.7 6,028.5

2055 175.2 117.2 0.0 TBD -44.1 58.1 3,554.1 -139.4 -117.2 6,145.7

2056 180.3 115.7 0.0 TBD -50.1 64.6 3,489.4 -129.6 -115.7 6,261.4

2057 185.0 114.2 0.0 TBD -55.8 70.8 3,418.6 -119.9 -114.2 6,375.6

2058 189.2 112.7 0.0 TBD -61.1 76.5 3,342.1 -110.3 -112.7 6,488.3

2059 192.9 111.3 0.0 TBD -65.9 81.6 3,260.5 -101.1 -111.3 6,599.6

2060 196.0 109.9 0.0 TBD -70.4 86.1 3,174.4 -92.1 -109.9 6,709.4

2061 198.7 108.5 0.0 TBD -74.3 90.2 3,084.2 -83.3 -108.5 6,817.9

2062 200.8 107.1 0.0 TBD -54.1 93.7 2,990.5 -74.8 -107.1 6,925.1

2063 202.6 105.8 0.0 TBD 0.0 96.8 2,893.7 -66.6 -105.8 7,030.9

2064 204.0 104.5 0.0 TBD 0.0 99.5 2,794.1 -58.6 -104.5 7,135.3

2065 205.1 103.1 0.0 TBD 0.0 101.9 2,692.2 -50.8 -103.1 7,238.5

2066 205.9 101.8 0.0 TBD 0.0 104.1 2,588.1 -43.1 -101.8 7,340.3

2067 206.4 100.5 5.1 TBD 0.0 105.9 2,482.2 -35.6 -95.4 7,435.7

2068 206.7 99.2 94.8 TBD 0.0 107.5 2,374.8 -28.2 -4.4 7,440.1

2069 206.8 98.0 95.4 TBD 0.0 108.8 2,266.0 -21.0 -2.5 7,442.6

2070 206.6 96.7 95.8 TBD 0.0 109.9 2,156.1 -13.9 -1.0 7,443.6

2071 206.3 95.5 95.9 TBD 0.0 110.8 2,045.3 -7.1 0.4 7,443.1

2072 205.7 94.3 95.8 TBD 0.0 111.4 1,933.9 -0.4 1.6 7,441.6

2073 205.0 93.1 95.5 TBD 0.0 112.0 1,821.9 6.3 2.5 7,439.1

2074 204.2 91.9 95.0 TBD 0.0 112.4 1,709.6 12.8 3.2 7,436.0

2075 203.2 90.7 94.4 TBD 0.0 112.5 1,597.0 19.1 3.7 7,432.2

2076 202.0 89.5 93.7 TBD 0.0 112.5 1,484.6 25.2 4.1 7,428.1

2077 200.7 88.4 92.8 TBD 0.0 112.3 1,372.3 31.2 4.4 7,423.7

2078 199.3 87.3 91.8 TBD 0.0 112.1 1,260.2 37.1 4.6 7,419.2

2079 197.8 86.1 90.7 TBD 0.0 111.7 1,148.5 42.8 4.6 7,414.6

2080 196.3 85.0 89.6 TBD 0.0 111.2 1,037.3 48.5 4.5 7,410.0

2081 194.6 83.9 88.3 TBD 0.0 110.7 926.6 54.0 4.4 7,405.7

2082 193.0 82.9 87.0 TBD 0.0 110.1 816.5 59.5 4.2 7,401.5

2083 191.2 81.8 85.7 TBD 0.0 109.4 707.1 64.8 3.9 7,397.6

2084 189.5 80.7 84.3 TBD 0.0 108.7 598.3 70.1 3.6 7,394.0

2085 187.7 79.7 83.0 TBD 0.0 108.0 490.3 75.3 3.2 7,390.8

8,555.2 9,045.5 1,654.7 TBD 0.0

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9% Social Security Administration

2

 Positive values toward the end of the 75-year period will be at least partially offset by the cost of the guarantee in (4).

September 12, 2011

1

 Changes in OASDI Benefits and in Taxes on Benefits and PA Distributions Directed to OASDI Do Not Affect the On-Budget.

Billions of Present Value Dollars as of 1-1-2011

Table 1b - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1 (Present Value Dollars) - Preliminary Estimates

Total 2011-85

Reduction in OASDI 

Benefits Plus 

Change in Tax on 

Benefits and PA 

Distributions

Personal 

Account 

Contributions 

from the 

General Fund

OASDI Income 

Redirected to the 

General Fund for 

PA Contributions 

and Guarantees

Cost of 

Guarantee for 

Personal 

Account 

Participants

General Fund 

Loans to the Trust 

Funds (+) and 

Repayments (-)

Unified Budget Perspective On-Budget Perspective
 McCotter Proposal for Personal Accounts with OASI Benefit Reduction - Assume 100 Percent Participation 

Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Cash Flow

Change in

Debt Held

by Public at

End of Year

Change

in Annual

Unified Budget

Balance

Change

in Annual

On Budget

Cash Flow

Change

in Total

Federal Debt

End Of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

(6)

=(1)-(2)-(4) (7)

(8)=(6)+Change 

in Interest

(9)

=-(2)+(3)-(4) (10)

2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 TBD 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2012 0.0 113.3 0.0 TBD 0.0 -113.3 115.7 -115.7 -113.3 115.7

2013 0.0 131.3 0.0 TBD 0.0 -131.3 254.9 -139.1 -131.3 254.9

2014 0.0 143.4 0.0 TBD 0.0 -143.4 412.5 -157.6 -143.4 412.5

2015 0.0 156.0 0.0 TBD 0.0 -156.0 590.1 -177.6 -156.0 590.1

2016 0.0 169.3 0.0 TBD 0.0 -169.3 789.6 -199.5 -169.3 789.6

2017 0.0 183.0 0.0 TBD 0.0 -183.0 1,012.3 -222.8 -183.0 1,012.3

2018 0.0 197.8 0.0 TBD 0.0 -197.8 1,261.1 -248.7 -197.8 1,261.1

2019 0.0 212.5 0.0 TBD 0.0 -212.5 1,538.0 -276.9 -212.5 1,538.0

2020 0.0 227.5 0.0 TBD 0.0 -227.5 1,845.2 -307.3 -227.5 1,845.2

2021 0.0 243.0 0.0 TBD 0.0 -243.0 2,185.2 -339.9 -243.0 2,185.2

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9% Social Security Administration

On-Budget Perspective

September 12, 2011

1

 Changes in OASDI Benefits and in Taxes on Benefits and PA Distributions Directed to OASDI Do Not Affect the On-Budget.

Table 1b.n - OASDI Changes & Implications for Federal Budget and Debt of Specified Plan Provision Effects on OASDI1 (Nominal Dollars) - Preliminary Estimates

Billions of Nominal Dollars

Reduction in 

OASDI Benefits 

Plus Change in 

Tax on Benefits 

and PA 

Distributions

Personal 

Account 

Contributions 

from the 

General Fund

OASDI Income 

Redirected to the 

General Fund for 

PA Contributions 

and Guarantees

Cost of 

Guarantee for 

Personal 

Account 

Participants

General Fund 

Loans to the 

Trust Funds (+) 

and 

Repayments (-)

Unified Budget Perspective
 McCotter Proposal for Personal Accounts with OASI Benefit Reduction - Assume 100 Percent Participation 

Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income Cost

Expenditures

(Payable)

Non-Interest

Income

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

2011 4.85 4.85 4.55 4.85 4.85 4.55

2012 4.84 4.84 4.71 4.84 4.84 4.71

2013 4.84 4.84 4.73 4.84 4.84 4.73

2014 4.86 4.86 4.76 4.86 4.86 4.76

2015 4.89 4.89 4.78 4.89 4.89 4.78

2016 4.95 4.95 4.82 4.95 4.95 4.82

2017 5.02 5.02 4.85 5.02 5.02 4.85

2018 5.10 5.10 4.88 5.10 5.10 4.88

2019 5.21 5.21 4.89 5.21 5.21 4.89

2020 5.32 5.32 4.89 5.32 5.32 4.89

2021 5.43 5.43 4.89 5.43 5.43 4.89

2022 5.53 5.53 4.88 5.53 5.53 4.88

2023 5.63 5.63 4.88 5.63 5.63 4.88

2024 5.72 5.72 4.87 5.71 5.71 4.87

2025 5.81 5.81 4.87 5.79 5.79 4.87

2026 5.89 5.89 4.87 5.86 5.86 4.87

2027 5.96 5.96 4.86 5.91 5.91 4.86

2028 6.02 6.02 4.86 5.95 5.95 4.86

2029 6.08 6.08 4.86 5.97 5.97 4.86

2030 6.12 6.12 4.85 5.97 5.97 4.85

2031 6.15 6.15 4.85 5.96 5.96 4.85

2032 6.18 6.18 4.85 5.94 5.94 4.85

2033 6.20 6.20 4.85 5.92 5.92 4.85

2034 6.21 6.21 4.84 5.88 5.88 4.84

2035 6.22 6.22 4.84 5.84 5.84 4.84

2036 6.22 5.05 4.83 5.78 5.78 4.83

2037 6.21 4.83 4.83 5.73 5.73 4.83

2038 6.20 4.82 4.82 5.66 5.66 4.82

2039 6.18 4.82 4.82 5.58 5.58 4.82

2040 6.16 4.81 4.81 5.51 5.51 4.81

2041 6.14 4.81 4.81 5.43 5.43 4.81

2042 6.11 4.80 4.80 5.35 5.35 4.80

2043 6.09 4.79 4.79 5.27 5.27 4.79

2044 6.08 4.79 4.79 5.19 5.19 4.79

2045 6.06 4.78 4.78 5.10 5.10 4.78

2046 6.04 4.77 4.77 5.02 5.02 4.77

2047 6.02 4.77 4.77 4.93 4.93 4.77

2048 6.01 4.76 4.76 4.85 4.85 4.76

2049 5.99 4.75 4.75 4.77 4.77 4.75

2050 5.98 4.74 4.74 4.68 4.68 4.74

2051 5.97 4.74 4.74 4.60 4.60 4.74

2052 5.96 4.73 4.73 4.53 4.53 4.73

2053 5.95 4.73 4.73 4.45 4.45 4.73

2054 5.95 4.72 4.72 4.38 4.38 4.72

2055 5.95 4.71 4.71 4.31 4.31 4.71

2056 5.95 4.71 4.71 4.24 4.24 4.71

2057 5.94 4.70 4.70 4.17 4.17 4.70

2058 5.94 4.69 4.69 4.11 4.11 4.69

2059 5.94 4.69 4.69 4.05 4.05 4.69

2060 5.93 4.68 4.68 3.99 3.99 4.68

2061 5.93 4.68 4.68 3.94 3.94 4.68

2062 5.93 4.67 4.67 3.89 3.89 4.67

2063 5.92 4.66 4.66 3.84 3.84 4.66

2064 5.92 4.66 4.66 3.80 3.80 4.66

2065 5.91 4.65 4.65 3.76 3.76 4.65

2066 5.91 4.64 4.64 3.73 3.73 4.64

2067 5.91 4.64 4.64 3.70 3.70 4.59

2068 5.91 4.63 4.63 3.67 3.67 3.63

2069 5.92 4.63 4.63 3.65 3.65 3.61

2070 5.92 4.62 4.62 3.62 3.62 3.59

2071 5.92 4.62 4.62 3.61 3.61 3.57

2072 5.92 4.61 4.61 3.59 3.59 3.55

2073 5.93 4.60 4.60 3.57 3.57 3.54

2074 5.94 4.60 4.60 3.56 3.56 3.53

2075 5.94 4.59 4.59 3.55 3.55 3.51

2076 5.94 4.59 4.59 3.54 3.54 3.51

2077 5.95 4.58 4.58 3.53 3.53 3.50

2078 5.96 4.58 4.58 3.53 3.53 3.49

2079 5.96 4.58 4.58 3.52 3.52 3.49

2080 5.97 4.57 4.57 3.52 3.52 3.49

2081 5.98 4.57 4.57 3.52 3.52 3.48

2082 5.98 4.56 4.56 3.52 3.52 3.48

2083 5.99 4.56 4.56 3.52 3.52 3.48

2084 6.00 4.56 4.56 3.52 3.52 3.48

2085 6.01 4.55 4.55 3.52 3.52 3.49

Table 1c - Present Law and Proposal Cost, Expenditures, and Income: As Percent of Gross Domestic Product - Preliminary Estimates

September 12, 2011

Social Security Administration

Present Law OASDI Proposal OASDI

Calendar

Year

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary
 McCotter Proposal for Personal Accounts with OASI Benefit Reduction - Assume 100 Percent Participation 

Year

Present Law OASDI

Trust Fund Assets /

Unfunded Obligation

Through End of Year

OASDI Income 

Redirected to the 

General Fund for 

PA Contributions 

and Guarantees

Change in 

OASDI Income 

from Taxation of 

Benefits and PA 

Distributions

Total Change 

in OASDI 

Non-interest 

Income

Change

in OASDI 

Benefit Cost

Change

in OASDI 

Annual

Cash Flow

Cumulative Change 

in OASDI Cash Flow

Through End of Year

Proposal OASDI

Trust Fund Assets /

Debt

Through End of Year

(1) (2) (3) (4)=(3)-(2) (5) (6)=(4)-(5) (7) (8) = (1)+(7)

2011 2,564.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,564.6

2012 2,545.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,545.0

2013 2,527.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,527.9

2014 2,513.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,513.4

2015 2,496.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,496.7

2016 2,476.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,476.9

2017 2,451.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,451.1

2018 2,417.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,417.9

2019 2,370.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,370.3

2020 2,305.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,305.9

2021 2,224.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,224.7

2022 2,127.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,127.7

2023 2,015.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,015.9

2024 1,890.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.7 0.7 0.7 1,891.6

2025 1,753.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.5 2.5 3.2 1,756.8

2026 1,605.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4.7 4.7 7.9 1,613.4

2027 1,448.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -7.4 7.4 15.3 1,463.4

2028 1,282.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 -10.7 10.7 25.9 1,308.9

2029 1,111.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 -15.0 15.0 41.0 1,152.5

2030 935.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 -20.3 20.3 61.3 997.0

2031 757.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -26.0 26.0 87.3 844.3

2032 576.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -32.0 32.0 119.3 695.4

2033 393.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 -38.1 38.1 157.4 551.2

2034 211.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -44.2 44.2 201.6 413.0

2035 29.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 -50.3 50.3 251.9 281.7

2036 -150.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 -56.6 56.6 308.6 158.0

2037 -329.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -63.0 63.0 371.6 42.5

2038 -504.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 -69.4 69.4 440.9 -63.8

2039 -676.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 -75.6 75.6 516.6 -160.3

2040 -845.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 -81.9 81.9 598.4 -247.1

2041 -1,010.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -88.1 88.1 686.6 -323.8

2042 -1,171.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 -94.5 94.5 781.1 -390.6

2043 -1,329.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 -101.0 101.0 882.0 -447.5

2044 -1,484.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -107.5 107.5 989.6 -494.9

2045 -1,636.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -114.1 114.1 1,103.6 -532.7

2046 -1,785.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -120.6 120.6 1,224.3 -561.0

2047 -1,931.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 -127.2 127.2 1,351.4 -580.0

2048 -2,075.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -133.7 133.7 1,485.1 -590.0

2049 -2,216.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -140.0 140.0 1,625.1 -591.0

2050 -2,354.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 -146.3 146.3 1,771.4 -583.4

2051 -2,491.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -152.4 152.4 1,923.8 -567.7

2052 -2,626.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -158.4 158.4 2,082.2 -544.2

2053 -2,759.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 -164.3 164.3 2,246.5 -513.4

2054 -2,892.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -169.9 169.9 2,416.4 -475.7

2055 -3,023.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -175.2 175.2 2,591.7 -431.6

2056 -3,153.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 -180.3 180.3 2,772.0 -381.5

2057 -3,282.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 -185.0 185.0 2,957.0 -325.7

2058 -3,410.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 -189.2 189.2 3,146.2 -264.7

2059 -3,537.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 -192.9 192.9 3,339.1 -198.7

2060 -3,663.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -196.0 196.0 3,535.1 -128.4

2061 -3,787.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 -198.7 198.7 3,733.7 -54.1

2062 -3,911.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -200.8 200.8 3,934.6 23.6

2063 -4,032.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 -202.6 202.6 4,137.2 104.3

2064 -4,153.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 -204.0 204.0 4,341.2 187.4

2065 -4,273.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 -205.1 205.1 4,546.3 272.6

2066 -4,392.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 -205.9 205.9 4,752.1 359.5

2067 -4,510.8 5.1 0.0 -5.1 -206.4 201.3 4,953.5 442.7

2068 -4,628.3 94.8 0.0 -94.8 -206.7 111.9 5,065.3 437.0

2069 -4,745.1 95.4 0.0 -95.4 -206.8 111.3 5,176.6 431.5

2070 -4,861.5 95.8 0.0 -95.8 -206.6 110.9 5,287.5 426.0

2071 -4,977.2 95.9 0.0 -95.9 -206.3 110.3 5,397.8 420.6

2072 -5,092.4 95.8 0.0 -95.8 -205.7 109.9 5,507.7 415.3

2073 -5,207.2 95.5 0.0 -95.5 -205.0 109.5 5,617.2 410.0

2074 -5,321.6 95.0 0.0 -95.0 -204.2 109.2 5,726.4 404.8

2075 -5,435.5 94.4 0.0 -94.4 -203.2 108.8 5,835.2 399.7

2076 -5,548.9 93.7 0.0 -93.7 -202.0 108.3 5,943.5 394.6

2077 -5,661.8 92.8 0.0 -92.8 -200.7 107.9 6,051.4 389.6

2078 -5,774.2 91.8 0.0 -91.8 -199.3 107.5 6,158.9 384.7

2079 -5,886.2 90.7 0.0 -90.7 -197.8 107.1 6,266.0 379.8

2080 -5,997.7 89.6 0.0 -89.6 -196.3 106.7 6,372.7 375.0

2081 -6,108.7 88.3 0.0 -88.3 -194.6 106.3 6,479.1 370.3

2082 -6,219.3 87.0 0.0 -87.0 -193.0 105.9 6,585.0 365.6

2083 -6,329.5 85.7 0.0 -85.7 -191.2 105.5 6,690.5 361.0

2084 -6,439.2 84.3 0.0 -84.3 -189.5 105.2 6,795.7 356.5

2085 -6,548.4 83.0 0.0 -83.0 -187.7 104.8 6,900.4 352.0

Total 2011-2085 1,654.7 0.0 -1,654.7 -8,555.2 6,900.4

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report. Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Yield of 2.9%. September 12, 2011

(Billions of Dollars, Present Value on 1-1-2011)

Table 1d - Change in Long-Range Trust Fund Assets / Unfunded Obligation - Preliminary Estimates