Projecting Mortality 

for the Social Security 

Area

Mark Bye and Michael Morris

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

May 16, 2019
Historical Data

Projecting Mortality for the Social Security Area - May 16, 

2019 2

Mark Bye
• Under age 65

– Death counts from the National Center for Health Statistics.

– Population counts from the Census Bureau.

– For the 2019 Trustees Report, we had final data through 2016.

• Ages 65 and older

– Death counts from the Medicare enrollment population.

– Population counts from the Medicare enrollment population.

– For the 2019 Trustees Report, we had final data through 2015, and preliminary data 

for 2016 and 2017.

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Data Sources
• Medicare enrollment population is about 90+% of 

the Census population.

• Medicare data is generally considered 

advantageous:

– Single data source for numerator (deaths) and denominators (population).

– Undercount/overcount issue is greatly reduced.

– More accurate age reporting.

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Medicare Data – Why?
• Central death rate is the number of deaths in a year 

divided by the midyear population.

• Calculate central death rates for 5-year age groups, 

and also calculate age-adjusted (and age-sexadjusted) central death rates.

• The historical central death rates form the basis for 

our projections.

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Central Death Rates
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Historical Age-Sex-Adjusted Death Rates, 

1900 - 2016
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Sex Age 1900-1936 1936-1954 1954-1968 1968-1982 1982-1999 1999-2009 2009-2016 1900-2016 2016-2043 2016-2093 2043-2093

Male 0-14 2.91 4.79 1.65 4.33 2.91 1.29 1.30 2.99 1.65 1.58 1.54

15-49 1.46 3.01 -0.25 2.21 0.65 0.80 -0.66 1.29 0.91 0.88 0.86

50-64 0.42 0.96 -0.13 2.28 1.92 1.15 -0.29 0.90 1.09 1.07 1.06

65-84 0.20 1.16 -0.11 1.46 1.25 2.40 0.86 0.85 1.00 0.86 0.78

85+ 0.22 1.21 -0.89 1.56 -0.29 1.49 0.37 0.45 0.58 0.54 0.52

65+ 0.21 1.17 -0.37 1.50 0.70 2.03 0.65 0.70 0.82 0.72 0.66

Total 0.67 1.49 -0.25 1.78 0.94 1.76 0.37 0.94 0.88 0.80 0.75

Female 0-14 3.14 5.06 1.72 4.15 2.63 1.12 1.13 3.03 1.66 1.60 1.57

15-49 1.53 4.68 0.28 2.91 0.59 0.26 -0.47 1.68 0.91 0.92 0.93

50-64 0.71 2.57 0.76 1.72 1.09 1.46 -0.46 1.18 1.06 1.06 1.05

65-84 0.35 2.05 1.06 2.03 0.46 1.68 0.72 1.06 0.91 0.79 0.73

85+ 0.23 1.21 0.13 2.06 -0.14 1.16 0.16 0.62 0.54 0.51 0.50

65+ 0.31 1.74 0.69 2.04 0.22 1.45 0.47 0.88 0.74 0.66 0.61

Total 0.79 2.31 0.70 2.11 0.43 1.37 0.27 1.14 0.81 0.74 0.70

Total 0-14 3.01 4.90 1.68 4.26 2.79 1.22 1.23 3.01 1.66 1.59 1.55

15-49 1.49 3.69 -0.06 2.44 0.63 0.61 -0.60 1.44 0.91 0.90 0.89

50-64 0.55 1.62 0.19 2.08 1.61 1.27 -0.35 1.02 1.08 1.07 1.06

65-84 0.28 1.60 0.42 1.72 0.92 2.06 0.79 0.96 0.95 0.83 0.76

85+ 0.23 1.21 -0.22 1.86 -0.18 1.30 0.24 0.56 0.56 0.52 0.51

65+ 0.26 1.46 0.19 1.77 0.51 1.75 0.56 0.81 0.78 0.69 0.64

Total 0.73 1.88 0.22 1.95 0.75 1.57 0.31 1.05 0.85 0.77 0.73

1

Using the 2010 Census Resident population as the standard population for age adjusting.

Historical Period (last year of final data is 2016) Intermediate Alternative

Average Annual Percent Reductions in Age-Adjusted Central Death Rates: for the 2019 Trustees Report 1
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Projections

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2019 10

Michael Morris
• The Board of Trustees sets ultimate rates of 

improvements

– By 5 age groups (0 – 14, 15 – 49, 50 – 64, 65 – 84, 85+).

– By 5 causes of death (cardiovascular, cancer, violence, respiratory, all other).

• Ultimate values are hit in year 25 of the projection, 

but are graded in at a rapid pace (they are 90% of 

the way to the ultimate rates in 10 years).

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Ultimate Rates of Improvement
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2018 TR 2019 TR 2018 TR 2019 TR 

1979 to 2016 2006 to 2016 2042 to 2092 2043 to 2093 1979 to 2016 2006 to 2016 2042 to 2092 2043 to 2093

Under Age 15

Cardiovascular Disease 2.72 2.54 2.3 2.3 2.61 2.48 2.3 2.3

Cancer 2.21 0.46 1.5 1.5 1.86 1.23 1.5 1.5

Violence 2.73 1.59 1.0 1.0 2.28 1.64 1.0 1.0

Respiratory Disease 2.41 1.21 2.0 2.0 2.46 1.02 2.0 2.0

Other 2.27 2.20 1.7 1.7 2.13 1.98 1.7 1.7

Resulting Total ** 2.37 2.00 1.54 1.54 2.17 1.88 1.57 1.57

Ages 15 - 49

Cardiovascular Disease 1.90 1.36 1.5 1.5 1.15 0.88 1.5 1.5

Cancer 1.92 2.34 1.5 1.5 1.67 1.74 1.5 1.5

Violence 0.64 -0.40 0.7 0.7 -0.14 -1.21 0.7 0.7

Respiratory Disease 0.77 0.19 0.5 0.5 -0.21 -0.14 0.5 0.5

Other 0.73 1.51 0.8 0.8 -0.32 0.23 0.8 0.8

Resulting Total ** 1.09 0.59 0.87 0.86 0.52 0.21 0.94 0.93

Ages 50 - 64

Cardiovascular Disease 2.89 0.89 2.2 2.2 2.51 0.80 2.2 2.2

Cancer 1.65 1.43 1.5 1.5 1.41 1.31 1.5 1.5

Violence -0.22 -2.49 0.5 0.5 -0.90 -3.16 0.5 0.5

Respiratory Disease 0.94 -0.80 0.7 0.7 -0.50 -1.57 0.7 0.7

Other -0.49 -0.89 0.6 0.6 -0.51 -0.91 0.6 0.6

Resulting Total ** 1.51 0.16 1.07 1.06 1.07 0.11 1.06 1.05

Ages 65 - 84

Cardiovascular Disease 3.19 2.25 2.2 2.2 2.89 2.56 2.2 2.2

Cancer 1.00 2.06 0.9 0.9 0.13 1.55 0.9 0.9

Violence 0.46 -0.76 0.5 0.5 -0.18 -0.79 0.5 0.5

Respiratory Disease 0.73 1.14 0.3 0.3 -1.68 0.29 0.3 0.3

Other -0.78 -0.62 0.3 0.3 -1.43 -0.52 0.3 0.3

Resulting Total ** 1.57 1.30 0.77 0.78 0.80 1.09 0.72 0.73

Ages 85 and older

Cardiovascular Disease 1.75 1.92 1.2 1.2 1.96 2.30 1.2 1.2

Cancer -0.09 0.97 0.5 0.5 -0.41 0.36 0.5 0.5

Violence -0.69 -1.21 0.3 0.3 -1.31 -2.13 0.3 0.3

Respiratory Disease -0.29 1.31 0.2 0.2 -1.45 0.44 0.2 0.2

Other -2.22 -1.21 0.2 0.2 -3.01 -1.23 0.2 0.2

Resulting Total ** 0.36 0.71 0.51 0.52 0.17 0.56 0.49 0.50

Total

Cardiovascular Disease 2.60 1.87 2.40 2.19

Cancer 1.02 1.71 0.56 1.32

Violence 0.40 -0.92 -0.30 -1.54

Respiratory Disease 0.43 0.98 -1.35 0.10

Other -0.82 -0.60 -1.51 -0.71

Resulting Total ** 1.20 0.87 0.74 0.75 0.65 0.71 0.69 0.70

Trustees Assumptions:

Average Annual Rates of Reduction in Central Death Rates by Age Group, Sex, and Cause 

Female

Male Female

Alternative II* Alternative II*

Male

Female

Historical Historical

Female

Male

Male Female

Male Female

Male
• Using the last year of death rate data as the starting point for the 

projections can cause a tremendous amount of variation (from one 

Trustees Report to the next) as new data becomes available, due to 

the volatility in mortality data.

• Instead, a starting value is calculated as the base rate for the 

projections.

• Starting death rates are calculated for 21 age groups, 2 sexes, and 5 

causes of death.

• The starting values are calculated to be consistent with the trend 

inherent in that last 12 years of available data.

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Starting Death Rates
• The starting rates of improvement are calculated for 21 age groups, 

2 sexes, and 5 causes of death.

• They are assumed to equal the average rates of improvement over 

the last 10 years of available data.

• These starting rates of improvement are graded in to the Trustees’ 

ultimate rates of improvement.

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Starting Rates of Improvement
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Thank you

Social Security Administration

Office of the Chief Actuary

410-965-3000

Actuary@ssa.gov