Social Security Actuaries’ 

Use of Vital Records

NCVHS Hearing on Next Generation Vital Statistics

Panel 2. Current Status of Vital Records: Federal Perspective

Steve Goss, Chief Actuary

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration

September 11, 2017
Vital Statistics (Events)

• Levels and trends determine the size and 

composition of the future population

– Our projections for Social Security, Medicare, SSI, 

Medicaid, plus OMB long-term projections

• Future costs and revenues flow directly or 

indirectly from population dynamics

– Average earnings and benefits rise similarly

– So changes in population distribution (by age, sex, 

etc) determine cost relative to financing sources

• For entitlements and all economic units

2
3
4
Social Security Cost as Percent of Taxable Payroll, 2017 TR

5

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Calendar year

OASI cost rates

DI cost rates

Historical Estimated

OASI

DI

Intermediate

Low-cost

High-cost

High-cost

Low-cost

Intermediate
Vital Events that Matter

1) Births

2) Deaths

3) Marriage and Divorce

4) Immigration and Emigration

5) Disability

6
1) Births

• Compute age-specific birth rates 

– Births from NCHS by age of mother

• Reported by 50 States plus DC

– Numbers of women from Census Bureau

• Estimated for 50 States plus DC

7
1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1915193519551975199520152035205520752095

Total Fertility Rate

Calendar Year

Historical and Projected Total Fertility Rates, 2017 TR

Historical

Low-cost

Intermediate

High-cost

8
2) Deaths (Mortality)

• Data under age 65

– NCHS deaths by cause for 50 States and DC

– Census population for 50 States and DC

– Relative underreporting issues

• Data age 65 and over

– Medicare deaths and enrollments (limited to OASDI 

beneficiaries)

– Consistent deaths and exposures

– Minimized age misstatement

– NCHS distribution by cause of death 

9
Projection of Mortality

• Assumed rates of decline by age-group, sex, and 

cause—closely monitor rates by age and sex

• Assume generally slower decline than past

• But for 85+ faster decline than in recent years

• Reduced “age gradient” for future mortality 

decline

• Very gradual deceleration is effected for all ages 

through use of different ultimate rates of decline 

by cause 

10
Declining Age Gradient and Rate of Decline

11
3) Marriage and Divorce

• Critical to benefits (and employment)

• NCHS

– Age distribution through 1988, provisional through 

1995, and totals through 2014

• ACS

– Age distribution for marriages, beginning in 2008

• Data from various states

– Age distribution for divorces, for some recent years

12
0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

Age-Sex Adjusted Marriage and Divorce Rates

Historical and Projected, 2017 TR

Marriage

Divorce

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For More Information...

http://www.ssa.gov/oact/

 Annual Trustees Reports 

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/index.html

 Documentation of Trustees Report data & assumptions 

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2017/2017_LongRange_Demographic_Assumptions.pdf

 Historical and projected mortality rates

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/HistEst/DeathHome.html

 Actuarial Notes on population flows and characteristics 

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/NOTES/actnote.html

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