U.S. IMMIGRATION

PROJECTING IMMIGRATION AS IT AFFECTS

THE SOCIAL SECURITY AREA

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

March 29, 2019

Technical Panel

Washington, DC
Overview

 Definitions

 Projection Methodology

 Results

 Additional Issues

 More Information

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What is Migration?

Five types of migration:

1) Lawful permanent resident (LPR) 

immigration

2) Legal emigration

3) Other-than-LPR immigration

4) Other-than-LPR emigration

5) Adjustments of status (transfers)

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LPR Immigration

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 LPR immigration:

Foreign-born individuals, either new arrivals or 

adjustments of status, who are granted LPR status.

 Legal emigration:

LPRs and citizens who leave the Social Security 

area.
Other-than-LPR Immigration

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 Other-than-LPR immigration:

Individuals who enter the Social Security area 

without LPR status, such as undocumented 

immigrants, temporary workers, and students.

 Other-than-LPR emigration:

Individuals from the OTL population who leave 

the Social Security area or adjust status to 

become LPRs.
Adjustments of Status

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 Adjustments of status (transfers):

Individuals who adjust their status (transfer) from 

the other-than-LPR population to become LPRs.

 They are counted in the number of LPR 

immigrants.

 They are counted in the number of otherthan-LPR emigrants.
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Immigration Flows

2018 Trustees Report, Intermediate Assumptions
Other-than-LPR Population

 Never authorized

Those that were never authorized to enter the Social 

Security area.

 Nonimmigrants

Those legally admitted for a limited period of time such 

as students, temporary worker, and exchange visitors.

 Overstayers

Those that were nonimmigrants, but overstayed their visas.

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LPR Immigration Flows

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2018 Trustees Report, Intermediate Assumptions
Other-than-LPR Immigration Flows

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2018 Trustees Report, Intermediate Assumptions
Projections – Distributions

 All 5 immigration categories are 

projected by single year of age and sex.

 In general, a distribution is used to break 

out the assumed total.

 Annual distributions are constant for all 

categories, except OTL emigration.

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Results – Population Stocks

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Foreign-born population

OTL population

Total population
Other-than-LPR Population

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2018 Trustees Report, Intermediate Assumptions
Coverage and Earnings

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 LPR immigrants:

 Assumed equally likely as US-born workers to be in the labor force, 

work in covered employment, and become insured for benefits.

 Average earnings assumed equal to the average for US-born 

workers.

 Other-than-LPR immigrants:

 Assumed just as likely to be in the labor force (in general).

 Less likely to work in covered employment.

 Much less likely to become insured for benefits.

 Average earnings assumed lower than the average for US-born 

workers (varies by category).
Additional Issues

 LPR immigration is limited by law

 Generally, we do not anticipate changes in law

 Other-than-LPR immigration is more difficult 

to project

 Past panels have suggested a rise in proportion to overall 

population size

 But will “demand” for other-than-LPR change in the future?

 Will the US be viewed as a land of relative opportunity?

 Will other nations become more or less desirable, affecting their 

emigration?

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More Information

 2018 OASDI Trustees Report

http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2018/tr2018.pdf

 Actuarial Note, Number 148

http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/NOTES/pdf_notes/note148.pdf

 Actuarial Note, Number 151

http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/NOTES/pdf_notes/note151.pdf

 Demographic Assumptions

http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2018/2018_Long-Range_Demographic_Assumptions.pdf

 Model Documentation

http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2018/2018_LR_Model_Documentation.pdf

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