SOCIAL SECURITY

Office of the Chief Actuary

May 6, 2015

The Honorable Sam Johnson

Chairman, Subcommittee on Social Security

The Honorable Charles Boustany 

Chairman, Subcommittee on Human Resources

House of Representatives

Washington, D.C. 20515

Dear Mr. Johnson and Mr. Boustany:

I am writing in response to your request for an estimate of the financial effects on Social Security 

of H.R. 2135, “Promoting Opportunity for Disability Benefit Applicants Act,” introduced on 

April 30. This Bill would allow the Commissioner of Social Security to provide information on 

appropriate public or private entities that provide employment services, vocational rehabilitation 

services, or other support services to applicants for disability benefits under Title II or Title XVI 

who are denied benefits based on an adverse determination of disability. However, the 

Commissioner would not be authorized to make referrals or to pay for these services under this 

Bill. Permission to make such information available to such applicants under this Bill applies for 

disability applications filed at least 180 days after enactment. 

We have analyzed the potential effects of this Bill with assistance from Amy Shuart and Ted 

McCann of your staff. Many in the Office of the Chief Actuary contributed to the development 

of this analysis, most particularly Bert Kestenbaum.

We conclude that enactment of this Bill would most likely have a very small net effect on Title 

II, Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI), benefit cost and Title XVI, 

Supplemental Security Income (SSI), cost for years 2015 through 2024, and beyond, assuming 

enactment of the Bill on July 1, 2015. The net effect of the expected actions is unclear. We 

assume that enactment would result in providing information on the type of services available 

and possibly contact information to the denied applicants. For those who would seek services 

based on the information provided, some would be assisted in finding sustained employment and 

thus would eliminate the likelihood of a later reapplication for benefits. However, in some cases, 

resulting employment would help denied applicants maintain their disability insured status, thus 

providing the opportunity to qualify for benefits later should their condition worsen. In addition, 

we understand that one of the positive services that VR agencies can provide is assessment and 

advice that can help individuals who cannot work make a more complete application that may 

then qualify them for disability benefits. On balance, we believe that the net change in OASDI 

and SSI program cost would be negligible. For the long-range actuarial status of the overall 

OASDI program, we estimate that enactment of the Bill would change the actuarial deficit by a 

negligible amount (less than 0.005 percent of taxable payroll). 
Page 2 – The Honorable Sam Johnson and the Honorable Charles Boustany

SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION BALTIMORE, MD 21235-0001

The analysis provided here is preliminary and speculative. The magnitude of the net effect will 

depend on many factors that are not clear at this time. However, it appears that the following 

factors would both have beneficial effects: (1) facilitating some individuals to sustain work and 

thus maintain an earnings level in excess of the potential disability benefit and (2) assisting other 

individuals who qualify for benefits to make a more complete application. We hope this analysis

will be helpful. Please let me know if we may provide further assistance.

Sincerely,

Stephen C. Goss

Chief Actuary