Social Security Trustees Report 2023: 

Brief Update on Status

Bipartisan Policy Center

April 25, 2023

Steve Goss, Chief Actuary
Primary Change This Year

1. “Since the assumptions for last year’s report were set, the Trustees have 

reassessed their expectations for the economy in light of recent 

developments, including updated data on inflation and output, and have 

revised down the levels of gross domestic product (GDP) and labor 

productivity by about 3 percent over the projection period.” 

2. These assumptions were set in December 2022 and include a period of slow 

growth in 2023

3. Assumptions for GDP and productivity were essentially the same in the 2020 

and 2022 Trustees Reports

4. This reassessment therefore reflects the experience since the 2020 report, 

where neither the pandemic nor the brief 2020 recession were reflected

2
Changes in Timing of Trust Fund Reserve 

Depletion in 2023 Report

1. OASDI reserve depletion is 2034 - one year earlier than last year’s report

a) Actuarial deficit increased by 0.19 percent of payroll versus expected increase of 0.05 percent from 

change in valuation period alone

b) The change in the level of GDP and productivity alone increases the actuarial deficit by 0.13 percent of 

payroll

c) Annual deficits are larger through 2097

2. OASI reserve depletion is 2033 - one year earlier than last year’s report

3. DI reserves do not become depleted over the 75-year long-range projection period - same as 

last year

a) Applications and benefit awards remained at historically low levels in 2022

b) Gradual increase in initial applications and incidence rates to their ultimate levels start 1 year later

c) DI actuarial deficit of 0.01 percent of payroll is replaced by a positive actuarial balance of 0.01 percent

3
Solvency: OASI+DI 

Trust Fund Reserve 

Depletion in 2034 

(one year earlier than last year)

Reserve depletion date 

varied from 2029 to 2042 

in reports over the past 30 

years (1994-2023).

DI Trust Fund: reserves do 

not deplete, due largely to 

continued low recent and 

near-term disability 

applications and awards.

4

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

450%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Calendar Year

Social Security Trust Fund Ratios

Assets as a Percent of Annual Cost

Trustees Report Intermediate Projections

2023 TR DI

2022 TR DI

2023 TR OASI

2022 TR OASI

2023 TR OASDI

2022 TR OASDI

Historical Projected

Tax Rate

Reallocation
Year of Reserve 

Depletion in the 

1991-2023 

Reports

The year of projected 

combined OASI and DI Trust 

Fund reserve depletion has 

been in the range of 2029 to 

2041 in the last 33 annual 

reports...

and in the range of 2033 to 

2035 in the last 12 reports. 

5
OASDI Annual Cost 

and Non-Interest 

Income as Percent 

of Taxable Payroll

Persistent negative annual 

cash-flow balance starting in 

2010.

80 percent of scheduled 

benefits still payable at trust 

fund reserve depletion.

Annual deficit in 2097: 4.35 

percent of payroll: 0.09 

percent larger than last year.

6

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095

Calendar Year

OASDI Non-Interest Income, Cost and Expenditures 

as Percentages of Taxable Payroll

Cost: Scheduled and 

payable benefits

Cost: Scheduled but not 

fully payable benefits

Non-interest Income Expenditures: Payable benefits = income 

after trust fund depletion in 2034

Payable benefits as percent 

of scheduled benefits:

2023-33: 100%

2034: 80%

2097: 74%

Historical Projected
What Does This 

Mean for the 

Federal Debt?

(PB24 version)

President’s Budget and CBO 

both assume that current law 

will be changed in the future, 

requiring the General Fund to 

borrow from the public to 

cover any shortfalls after 

reserve depletion. 

Graph shows publicly held 

debt as a percent of GDP with 

this assumed change in law, 

and also the debt levels that 

would actually occur under 

current law and policy.

7
What Does This 

Mean for the 

Federal Debt?

(CBO version)

Note dramatically higher 

projections of debt, and 

different concavity, than in 

the President’s Budget 

version.

8
SUSTAINABILITY: 

Cost as percent 

of GDP

Rises from a 4.2 percent 

average in 1990-2008, 

to a peak of about 6.3 

percent for 2076, and 

then declines to 6.0 

percent by 2097.

9

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Calendar Year

OASDI Cost and Non-Interest Income as a Percentage of GDP

Historical Projected

Cost

Non-interest Income
Aging –

Change in Age 

Distribution

The primary reason for 

increasing cost relative 

to payroll and GDP. 

Mainly due to drop in 

birth rates.

10

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Aged Dependency Ratio 2023 TR

Population 65+/(20-64) 

Actual and TR Intermediate

TFR remains at 3.0 after 1964

TFR remains at 3.3 after 1964

Historical Projected
Another Reason: 

Ratio of Taxable 

Earnings to All OASDI 

Covered Earnings

Declined since 1983 due to 

increasing concentration of 

earnings at the top of the 

distribution, particularly through 

2000.

Fluctuation in 2020 and 2021 is 

due to variation in the average 

wage, as in past recessions.

The ratio is projected to rise 

through 2024, then gradually 

converge to 82.5 percent by 

2032. Thereafter, it varies slightly 

due to changes in the share of 

covered earnings that is from 

self-employment income.

11

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.9

1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040

Taxable Ratio 2023 TR

Historical Projected
Mortality 

Experience: All 

Ages

Increased mortality in 

the near-term to reflect 

the effects of the 

COVID-19 pandemic.

12

700

750

800

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Age-Sex-Adjusted Death Rates (per 100,000)

Total, All Ages

2014TR

2017TR

2021TR

2022TR

2023TR

Actual
Ratio of Age-Sex 

Adjusted Death 

Rates to Same 

Quarter in 2019

Death rates for causes 

other than COVID have 

been about 5% higher in 

the pandemic period 

through 2022 than they 

were in 2019.

13

Source: NCHS Quarterly Provisional Estimates as of March 20, 2023

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2021 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3

Ratio of Age-Sex-Adjusted Death Rates to Same Quarter in 2019 

Total: all causes

Total excluding 

COVID-19
Lower Real GDP 

Trajectory in 

2023 TR

Starting with a slowing 

of growth in 2023, the 

level of real GDP is 

projected to be about 3 

percent lower than the 

level projected in the 

2020 and 2022 TRs over 

the projection period.

14

14,500

16,500

18,500

20,500

22,500

24,500

26,500

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031

Real GDP

(billions of 2012 dollars, adjusted for NIPA methodological changes, 

intermediate assumptions)

2010 TR

2020 TR

2021 TR

2022 TR

2023 TR

Historical Projected
However, for Now, 

the Economy Is 

Exceeding 

Expectations

Slowdown in 2023 

appears less than 

assumed by Trustees 

and CBO.

Private forecasters are 

now expecting better 

for 2023. Trustees and 

CBO in about the 

middle by 2026.

15
Ratio of 

Employment to 

Population

Recovered strongly 

from the brief but steep 

2020 recession. 

After the assumed 

slowdown in growth in 

2023, the ratio is 

projected to return to 

about the peak level of 

2019.

16

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091

Ratio of Employment to Population 

(16 and older, age-sex-adjusted to 2011 population)

2022 TR

2023 TR

Age-sex-adjusted

Men (age-adjusted)

Women (age-adjusted)

Historical Projected
Age of Starting Social Security 

Retirement Benefits

17

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Female Retired Worker Beneficiaries In Current Payment Status as 

Percent of Insured Population 

(excluding those receiving only some other OASDI benefit)

62.5 63.5 64.5 65.5 66.5 67.5 68.5 69.5 70.5

Recession

Eliminate Earnings 

Test Over NRA

Deemed Filing 

applies to all Retired 

Workers

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Male Retired Worker Beneficiaries In Current Payment Status as 

Percent of Insured Population 

(excluding those receiving only some other OASDI benefit)

62.5 63.5 64.5 65.5 66.5 67.5 68.5 69.5 70.5

Recession

Eliminate Earnings 

Test Over NRA

NRA starts

increase 

over 66
Disability 

Incidence Rate 

Also Remains 

Historically Low

DI disabled worker 

incidence rate rose sharply 

in the 2008 recession, and 

has declined since the peak 

in 2010 to extraordinarily 

low levels in 2016 through 

2022.

What will be the NET effect 

of COVID and post-COVID 

conditions? 

18

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

DI Age-Sex-Adjusted Incidence Rates:

Historical and Intermediate Assumptions for 2012 through 2023 Trustees Reports

2012TR

2013TR

2014TR

2015TR

2016TR

2017TR

Average 1990-2022 5.0

Ultimate Assumption 4.8

2018TR

2019TR

2020TR

2021TR

2022TR

2023 TR
Fewer Disabled 

Worker 

Beneficiaries

Fewer now and in near 

term based on recent 

applications and 

incidence rates, with 

assumed increases 

deferred another year.

19

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032

Calendar Year

Disabled Worker Beneficiaries

In Current Payment Status at End of Year (in thousands)

2008 TR (no recession)

2022 TR

2023 TR
20

Payable Benefits 

Under the Law, 

After Trust Fund 

Reserves Are 

Depleted, Are 

Even Lower

Source: Annual Recurring Actuarial Note #9 at www.ssa.gov/oact/NOTES/ran9/index.html

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Calendar Year

PAYABLE Monthly Benefit Levels as Percent of Career-Average Earnings 

by Year of Retirement at age 65

Low Earner ($29,766 for 2023; 24th percentile)

Medium Earner ($66,147 for 2023; 56th percentile)

High Earner ($105,835 for 2023; 81st percentile)

Max Earner ($160,200 for 2023; 100th percentile)

Historical Projected
How to Eliminate the Social Security 

Long-Term Actuarial Deficit

Make choices addressing OASDI shortfall 2034-2097:

• Raise scheduled revenue by 2034 by about one-third

• Reduce scheduled benefits by 2034 by about one-fourth

• Or some combination of the two

21
For More Information Go to 

http://www.ssa.gov/oact/

• There you will find:

• Current and all prior OASDI Trustees Reports

• Detailed single-year tables for recent reports

• Our estimates for comprehensive proposals and individual provisions

• Actuarial notes, including replacement rates

• Actuarial studies

• Extensive databases

• Congressional testimonies

• Presentations by OCACT employees

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