SOCIAL SECURITY

MEMORANDUM 

Date: November 24, 2020 Refer To: TCA

To: Andrew Saul

Commissioner

David Black

Deputy Commissioner

From: Stephen C. Goss, ASA, MAAA /s/

Chief Actuary

Karen P. Glenn, FSA, MAAA, EA /s/

Deputy Chief Actuary

Subject: Updated Baseline for Actuarial Status of the OASI and DI Trust Funds, Reflecting Pandemic and 

Recession Effects—INFORMATION

Historically, we have used the most recent Trustees Report’s intermediate projection as our 

baseline for evaluation of legislative proposals until the next Trustees Report is issued. However, 

we are in an unprecedented year. The sudden arrival of the pandemic and the ensuing precipitous 

recession clearly are having effects on the actuarial status of the OASI and DI Trust Funds. We 

have been evaluating those effects, and on November 16 the Social Security Administration 

released publicly what is effectively an updated actuarial valuation by the Office of the Chief 

Actuary in the Agency Financial Report (AFR) for Fiscal Year 2020. This update accounts for 

the implications of the pandemic and the recession, as was required for the audit of the Statement 

of Social Insurance (SOSI) in the AFR. The SOSI is based on the intermediate assumptions of 

the 2020 Trustees Report, where neither the pandemic nor the recession were reflected. By 

reflecting our current best estimate of the implications of the pandemic and recession as a 

“subsequent event” for the SOSI in the AFR, we now have a well-developed and coherent 

updated baseline projection that will serve as an appropriate and reasonable basis for evaluating 

the effects of proposals that affect the OASI and DI Trust Funds, and particularly proposals 

intended to extend solvency. See pages 97 and 98 of the AFR at https://www.ssa.gov/finance/.

We will be using this updated baseline as an interim baseline starting now and until the issuance 

of the 2021 Trustees Report next year. Because we now know the effects of the pandemic and 

recession will be significant, we believe it would be misleading to provide estimates regarding 

the prospects for solvency of the trust funds for proposals now being considered without 

recognizing these effects.
2

Table 1 attached provides a comparison of the projections of the actuarial status of the combined 

OASI and DI Trust Funds under the intermediate assumptions of the 2020 Trustees Report and

those under the updated interim assumptions. Table 2 provides a comparison of the near-term 

assumptions under these two baselines. The long-range assumptions (i.e., the assumptions for 

years after the first ten years of the projection) used for the interim baseline are the same as those

used for the 2020 Trustees Report.

Attachments: Tables 1, 2 
2020 Trustees Report Intermediate Projection

Year Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance Cost Rate

Income

Rate

Annual

Balance

2020 13.92 13.00 -0.92 261 14.80 13.91 -0.88 262 0.88 0.91 0.03

2021 14.05 12.90 -1.15 248 14.58 12.09 -2.50 252 0.53 -0.81 -1.35

2022 14.25 12.93 -1.32 233 14.53 12.91 -1.62 230 0.28 -0.02 -0.30

2023 14.43 12.94 -1.49 217 14.57 12.95 -1.62 212 0.14 0.00 -0.13

2024 14.64 12.98 -1.67 200 14.73 12.98 -1.76 194 0.09 -0.00 -0.09

2025 14.88 13.00 -1.88 183 14.99 13.00 -1.99 176 0.11 0.01 -0.11

2026 15.11 13.12 -1.99 165 15.24 13.13 -2.11 157 0.13 0.01 -0.12

2027 15.35 13.15 -2.20 148 15.48 13.15 -2.32 139 0.13 0.01 -0.12

2028 15.58 13.19 -2.39 130 15.71 13.20 -2.51 120 0.12 0.01 -0.12

2029 15.83 13.23 -2.61 112 15.95 13.23 -2.72 101 0.12 0.01 -0.12

2030 16.02 13.24 -2.78 94 16.14 13.25 -2.89 82 0.11 0.01 -0.11

2031 16.19 13.26 -2.93 76 16.29 13.26 -3.03 63 0.10 0.01 -0.10

2032 16.33 13.27 -3.07 58 16.43 13.27 -3.16 44 0.10 0.00 -0.09

2033 16.45 13.28 -3.17 39 16.54 13.28 -3.26 25 0.09 0.00 -0.09

2034 16.55 13.29 -3.26 20 16.64 13.29 -3.35 6 0.09 0.00 -0.08

2035 16.63 13.29 -3.33 1 16.71 13.30 -3.41 ---- 0.08 0.00 -0.08

2036 16.69 13.30 -3.39 ---- 16.76 13.30 -3.46 ---- 0.08 0.00 -0.07

2037 16.74 13.30 -3.43 ---- 16.81 13.31 -3.50 ---- 0.07 0.00 -0.07

2038 16.79 13.31 -3.48 ---- 16.86 13.31 -3.55 ---- 0.08 0.00 -0.07

2039 16.82 13.31 -3.50 ---- 16.89 13.32 -3.57 ---- 0.07 0.00 -0.07

2040 16.85 13.32 -3.53 ---- 16.92 13.32 -3.60 ---- 0.07 0.00 -0.07

2041 16.86 13.32 -3.54 ---- 16.93 13.32 -3.60 ---- 0.07 0.00 -0.06

2042 16.86 13.32 -3.54 ---- 16.92 13.32 -3.60 ---- 0.06 0.00 -0.06

2043 16.85 13.32 -3.53 ---- 16.91 13.32 -3.58 ---- 0.06 0.00 -0.05

2044 16.83 13.32 -3.51 ---- 16.88 13.32 -3.56 ---- 0.04 0.00 -0.04

2045 16.82 13.32 -3.50 ---- 16.85 13.32 -3.53 ---- 0.03 0.00 -0.03

2046 16.80 13.32 -3.48 ---- 16.83 13.32 -3.51 ---- 0.03 0.00 -0.03

2047 16.79 13.32 -3.47 ---- 16.82 13.32 -3.50 ---- 0.03 0.00 -0.03

2048 16.79 13.32 -3.47 ---- 16.81 13.32 -3.49 ---- 0.02 0.00 -0.02

2049 16.78 13.32 -3.46 ---- 16.80 13.32 -3.48 ---- 0.02 0.00 -0.02

2050 16.79 13.32 -3.46 ---- 16.80 13.32 -3.48 ---- 0.01 0.00 -0.01

2051 16.79 13.32 -3.47 ---- 16.80 13.32 -3.48 ---- 0.01 0.00 -0.01

2052 16.81 13.33 -3.48 ---- 16.82 13.33 -3.49 ---- 0.01 0.00 -0.01

2053 16.83 13.33 -3.50 ---- 16.84 13.33 -3.51 ---- 0.01 0.00 -0.01

2054 16.86 13.33 -3.53 ---- 16.87 13.33 -3.53 ---- 0.01 0.00 -0.01

2055 16.89 13.33 -3.56 ---- 16.90 13.33 -3.56 ---- 0.00 0.00 -0.00

2056 16.93 13.34 -3.59 ---- 16.93 13.34 -3.60 ---- 0.00 -0.00 -0.00

2057 16.98 13.34 -3.63 ---- 16.98 13.34 -3.64 ---- 0.00 -0.00 -0.00

2058 17.03 13.35 -3.68 ---- 17.03 13.35 -3.68 ---- 0.00 -0.00 -0.00

2059 17.08 13.35 -3.73 ---- 17.09 13.35 -3.73 ---- 0.00 -0.00 -0.00

2060 17.14 13.36 -3.79 ---- 17.15 13.36 -3.79 ---- 0.00 -0.00 -0.00

2061 17.20 13.36 -3.84 ---- 17.21 13.36 -3.84 ---- 0.00 -0.00 -0.00

2062 17.27 13.37 -3.90 ---- 17.27 13.37 -3.90 ---- 0.00 -0.00 -0.00

2063 17.33 13.37 -3.96 ---- 17.33 13.37 -3.96 ---- 0.00 -0.00 -0.00

2064 17.39 13.38 -4.02 ---- 17.39 13.38 -4.02 ---- 0.00 -0.00 -0.00

2065 17.46 13.38 -4.08 ---- 17.46 13.38 -4.08 ---- 0.00 -0.00 -0.00

2066 17.52 13.39 -4.14 ---- 17.53 13.39 -4.14 ---- 0.00 -0.00 -0.00

2067 17.59 13.39 -4.20 ---- 17.60 13.39 -4.21 ---- 0.00 0.00 -0.00

2068 17.66 13.40 -4.27 ---- 17.67 13.40 -4.27 ---- 0.00 0.00 -0.00

2069 17.73 13.40 -4.33 ---- 17.74 13.40 -4.34 ---- 0.00 0.00 -0.00

2070 17.80 13.41 -4.40 ---- 17.81 13.41 -4.40 ---- 0.00 0.00 -0.00

2071 17.87 13.41 -4.46 ---- 17.88 13.41 -4.46 ---- 0.01 0.00 -0.00

2072 17.93 13.41 -4.51 ---- 17.93 13.41 -4.52 ---- 0.00 0.00 -0.00

2073 17.98 13.42 -4.57 ---- 17.99 13.42 -4.57 ---- 0.00 0.00 -0.00

2074 18.04 13.42 -4.61 ---- 18.04 13.42 -4.62 ---- 0.01 0.00 -0.01

2075 18.08 13.43 -4.65 ---- 18.09 13.43 -4.66 ---- 0.01 0.00 -0.01

2076 18.11 13.43 -4.68 ---- 18.12 13.43 -4.69 ---- 0.01 0.00 -0.01

2077 18.14 13.43 -4.71 ---- 18.14 13.43 -4.71 ---- 0.00 0.00 -0.00

2078 18.15 13.43 -4.72 ---- 18.16 13.43 -4.72 ---- 0.00 0.00 -0.00

2079 18.15 13.43 -4.72 ---- 18.15 13.43 -4.72 ---- 0.00 0.00 -0.00

2080 18.14 13.43 -4.70 ---- 18.14 13.43 -4.71 ---- 0.00 0.00 -0.00

2081 18.12 13.43 -4.69 ---- 18.12 13.43 -4.69 ---- 0.00 0.00 -0.00

2082 18.09 13.43 -4.66 ---- 18.10 13.43 -4.66 ---- 0.00 0.00 -0.00

2083 18.07 13.43 -4.64 ---- 18.06 13.43 -4.63 ---- -0.00 -0.00 0.00

2084 18.03 13.43 -4.60 ---- 18.02 13.43 -4.59 ---- -0.01 -0.00 0.01

2085 18.00 13.43 -4.57 ---- 17.98 13.43 -4.55 ---- -0.02 -0.00 0.02

2086 17.96 13.42 -4.53 ---- 17.94 13.42 -4.52 ---- -0.02 -0.00 0.02

2087 17.92 13.42 -4.50 ---- 17.90 13.42 -4.48 ---- -0.02 -0.00 0.02

2088 17.90 13.42 -4.48 ---- 17.87 13.42 -4.45 ---- -0.02 -0.00 0.02

2089 17.88 13.42 -4.46 ---- 17.84 13.42 -4.43 ---- -0.03 -0.00 0.03

2090 17.87 13.42 -4.45 ---- 17.83 13.41 -4.42 ---- -0.03 -0.00 0.03

2091 17.87 13.42 -4.45 ---- 17.84 13.42 -4.42 ---- -0.03 -0.00 0.03

2092 17.88 13.42 -4.46 ---- 17.85 13.42 -4.44 ---- -0.03 -0.00 0.02

2093 17.90 13.42 -4.48 ---- 17.88 13.42 -4.47 ---- -0.02 -0.00 0.02

2094 17.94 13.42 -4.51 ---- 17.92 13.42 -4.50 ---- -0.01 -0.00 0.01

2095 17.97 13.42 -4.55 ---- 17.96 13.42 -4.54 ---- -0.01 -0.00 0.01

Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Year of 

Reserve 

Depletion Cost Rate Income Rate

Actuarial 

Balance

Year of 

Reserve 

Depletion

Change in 

Cost Rate

Change in 

Income Rate

Change in 

Actuarial

Balance

17.06% 13.85% -3.21% 2035 17.13% 13.85% -3.28% 2034 0.07% -0.00% -0.07%

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

Summarized Rates 2020-2094: OASDI Summarized Rates 2020-2094: OASDI Summarized Rates 2020-2094: OASDI

November 24, 2020

Expressed as a percentage of 

subsequent event taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year

Expressed as a percentage of 

taxable payroll

SSA AFR Subsequent Event - COVID 19 Change from 2020 Trustees Projection

Table 1 - OASDI Cost Rate, Income Rate, Annual Balance, and Trust Fund Ratio

2020 Trustees Report Intermediate Projection and SSA Agency Financial Report (AFR) Subsequent Event - COVID 19

Expressed as a percentage of 

present-law taxable payroll Trust Fund

Ratio

1-1-year
Table 2 - Assumptions Used for Updated OASDI Baseline: Subsequent Event Analysis in the FY 2020 SSA Agency Financial Report

Assumption/measure 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Fertility (TFR)

2020 TR 1.69 1.70 1.73 1.77 1.82 1.87 1.91 1.93 1.94 1.95

Subsequent event 1.69 1.57 1.66 1.83 1.88 1.93 1.91 1.93 1.94 1.95

Difference 0.00 -0.13 -0.07 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Mortality (age-sex-adjusted central death rate)

2020 TR 790.4 784.9 779.2 773.2 767.1 760.9 754.6 748.3 742.0 735.7

Subsequent event 885.2 832.0 794.8 773.2 767.1 760.9 754.6 748.3 742.0 735.7

Difference 94.8 47.1 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Net LPR immigration (levels in thousands)

2020 TR 788 788 788 788 788 788 788 788 788 788

Subsequent event 428 428 1,028 1,028 1,028 788 788 788 788 788

Difference -360 -360 240 240 240 0 0 0 0 0

Net other-than-LPR immigration (levels in thousands)

2020 TR 631 614 597 586 576 567 561 555 549 544

Subsequent event -449 -442 1,366 1,339 1,312 564 552 543 541 540

Difference -1,080 -1,056 769 753 736 -3 -9 -12 -8 -4

Disability incidence (age-sex-adjusted rate per thousand exposed)

2020 TR 4.34 4.18 4.25 4.53 4.77 4.80 4.87 4.92 4.96 4.99

Subsequent event 3.87 4.52 4.53 4.57 4.70 4.81 4.88 4.93 4.97 5.00

Difference -0.47 0.34 0.28 0.04 -0.07 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

Disability termination (age-sex-adjusted rate per thousand beneficiaries)

2020 TR 41.31 39.16 38.56 38.04 37.51 36.90 36.25 35.54 34.77 33.95

Subsequent event 42.79 40.64 39.05 38.04 37.51 36.90 36.25 35.54 34.77 33.95

Difference 1.48 1.48 0.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Productivity, total US economy (annual percentage change)

2020 TR 1.26 1.99 1.86 1.67 1.62 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.63

Subsequent event 3.20 1.77 0.76 0.67 1.22 1.46 1.63 1.64 1.64 1.63

Difference 1.94 -0.22 -1.10 -1.00 -0.40 -0.17 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00

Average wage in covered employment (annual percentage change)

2020 TR 3.50 4.44 4.09 3.83 3.78 3.81 3.84 3.89 3.89 3.72

Subsequent event -4.33 8.23 5.99 3.17 3.45 3.66 3.83 3.89 3.89 3.71

Difference -7.83 3.79 1.90 -0.66 -0.33 -0.15 -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.01

CPI-W (annual percentage change)

2020 TR 2.27 2.43 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40

Subsequent event 1.23 1.65 2.05 2.36 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40

Difference -1.04 -0.78 -0.35 -0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Real-wage differential (percent)

2020 TR 1.23 2.01 1.69 1.43 1.38 1.41 1.44 1.49 1.49 1.32

Subsequent event -5.56 6.58 3.93 0.80 1.05 1.26 1.43 1.49 1.49 1.31

Difference -6.79 4.57 2.24 -0.63 -0.33 -0.15 -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.01

Unemployment rate (percent)

2020 TR 3.8 4.2 4.6 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

Subsequent event 8.3 6.5 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

Difference 4.5 2.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total employment, military and civilian (annual percentage change)

2020 TR 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Subsequent event -6.4 3.0 3.2 2.0 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Difference -7.3 2.7 2.9 1.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Real GDP (annual percentage change)

2020 TR 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1

Subsequent event -3.5 4.7 3.9 2.7 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1

Difference -5.6 2.4 1.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Trust fund new-issue real interest rate (percent)

2020 TR 0.0 -0.1 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.2

Subsequent event 1.0 -0.6 -0.8 -0.7 -0.2 0.4 1.1 1.8 2.2 2.2

Difference 1.0 -0.5 -1.3 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -0.7 -0.2 0.0 0.0

Average wage index

2020 TR 55,641.66 58,112.16 60,499.07 62,823.60 65,207.33 67,697.32 70,300.71 73,036.06 75,872.79 78,696.64

Percent change from prior year 3.51 4.44 4.11 3.84 3.79 3.82 3.85 3.89 3.88 3.72

Subsequent event 51,603.14 55,788.36 59,076.46 60,918.68 62,996.21 65,290.06 67,793.61 70,434.27 73,176.68 75,897.91

Percent change from prior year -4.01 8.11 5.89 3.12 3.41 3.64 3.83 3.90 3.89 3.72

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

November 24, 2020