CCA ENROLLED 

ACTUARIES CONFERENCE

May 2, 4 and 6, 2022

All sessions of the Conference of Consulting Actuaries (CCA) are conducted in compliance with Federal and State antitrust laws and any discussion of anticompetitive 

activities among participants is strictly prohibited. The views expressed here are those of the presenter(s), and not necessarily those of the CCA. Nothing in this presentation 

is intended to be an interpretation of Actuarial Standards of Practice by the CCA. 

Copyright © 2022 Conference of Consulting Actuaries. CCA retains copyright of this presentation. Content remains property of contributors.

SESSION 1 - A - 1

Demographic Assumption Setting

Post-COVID
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Retirement & Termination
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US Population: Employment Trends 

• Employment has recovered MUCH faster after the 2020 recession, than after the 2008-9 recession

• Great Resignation? Or, increased job change in the pandemic period? BLS-CPS data
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US Population: Employment Trends by Age Group

• Employment over age 60 has been rising: Little effect from 2008-9 recession. BLS-CPS data

• Is the best retirement approach a job (Paul Samuelson)?
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Social Security Insured Population: Retirement Trends 

• Age of Starting Social Security Retirement Benefits – Trend unchanged in 2020 and 2021
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Base Mortality
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COVID-19 Current and Long-Term Implications

• Raised death rates in US roughly 16% in 2020 and 18% in 2021

• Reduced life expectancy for affected cohorts

– Many died earlier, disproportionately those with other conditions

– Most survived infection, but will carry some residual compromise

– Thus, possibly no net implication for “trend rate” in mortality 

• However, this is the second coronavirus in 20 years

– Expect periodically in a now mobile world population?

• If deaths are raised by 16% in 2 of every 20 years:

– Average level of mortality will be 1.6% above “trend”
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Excess Deaths for U.S. CDC — by week
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Level of Mortality Depends on Exposed Population

• Example: U.S. Death Rates Vary by Career Average Earnings Quintile –Lifetime consistent measure

Bosley, Morris, Glenn (2018): have the spreads roughly stabilized? At ages 65-69:
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Level of Mortality also Depends on Data Source

• Trustees use consistent SSA/Medicare data, Human Mortality Database (HMD) uses National Center 

for Health Statistics (NCHS) deaths/Census exposure
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Projected Mortality
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Approaches that can be used for Projecting

• Age setback (early method)

• Age-sex rate of decline matching a past period (Lee and Carter)

• Linear increase in life expectancy (Vaupel and Oeppen)

– Requires accelerating declines in mortality

• Rate of decline same at all ages, (2011 Technical Panel, CBO 2013-15)

– Ignores age gradient in mortality improvement

• Improvement by cohort (UK CMI, SOA)

– Does not differentiate health improvement from death deferral

• Rate of decline by age, sex, and cause of death (SSA OCACT/Trustees)

– Understanding conditions of the past, and how they will change in the future

– Note in 1982, Trustees projected 2015 Period LE at 65 to be 19.03; Actual 19.05
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How Future Conditions Will Differ from the Past

• Heart disease past success

• Cancer and dementia will be harder

• Obesity increase from sedentary lifestyle

• Difference by income/earnings

• Health spending—must decelerate

– Advances only help if they apply to all

• Human limits

– Increasing recognition of deceleration
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Age-Adjusted Death Rates Due to Selected Leading Causes of 

Death: United States, 1900-2019
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Trends in Obesity: US 1971 - 2006

• Sam Preston 2010—must consider cumulative effects increasing duration of obesity for aged in future
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Health Spending Cannot Continue to Rise as Historical Rates

Effects on Mortality?

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

 1970-1980 1980-2010 2010-2040 2040-2070 2070-2085

Annual Percent Change in Medicare Cost per Beneficiary 

Relative to GDP per Worker: 2015 TR

Note Trustees’ deceleration
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Is there an Omega?

Highest attained age has changed little; it appears we are rectangularizing the survival curve
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Mortality Experience All Ages SSA

Reductions slow 

after 2009, and 

continue to fall 

short of past trend

700

750

800

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Age-Sex-Adjusted Death Rates (per 100,000)

Total, All Ages

2017TR 2018TR 2019TR 2020TR 2021TR Actual
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US is Not Alone - UK Deceleration Since 2011

January 2020 Living to 100 Conference: Adrian Gallop, UK Government Actuary’s Office
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Appendix
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Cohort Considerations

• Post-World War 2 births—special conditions:

– Antibiotics when young; statins, etc. later

• What does change up to age x say above age x?

– If cohort is fundamentally healthier at age x... 

Then expect lower mortality over age x

– But if medical interventions have just reduced deaths...

Then cohort mortality over age x could be worse, with increased numbers of impaired 

survivors

– What does one cohort imply for the next cohort?

Further changes depend on conditions, not trend
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Developing Assumptions by Cause

• Scientific approach reflecting biology

• Trustees and SSA OCACT develop in consultation with 

other experts

• Johns Hopkins recent survey of medical researchers and 

clinicians came to very similar medium-term 

expectations—independently

– Trustees’ medium-term rates by cause had not been published
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Demographic Assumptions by Cause

Cardiovascular Example: JHU was less optimistic than trustees over age 50 for 

next 30 years

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Under Age 15 Ages 15 - 49 Ages 50 - 64 Ages 65 - 84 Ages 85 and

older

Total

Cardiovascular Disease-Female

Average Annual Percent Reduction

JHU values are for the period 2009-2040

1979 to 2010

2010 to 2038

2038 to 2088

JHU 

0.5

JHU 

1.5 JHU 

1.6

JHU 

1.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Under Age 15 Ages 15 - 49 Ages 50 - 64 Ages 65 - 84 Ages 85 and

older

Total

Cardiovascular Disease-Male

Average Annual Percent Reduction

JHU values are for the period 2009-2040

1979 to 2010

2010 to 2038

2038 to 2088

JHU 

1.1 JHU 

0.6

JHU 

1.5 JHU 

1.6
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US Population: Employment and Retirement Trends 

• Employment by occupation--- changing distribution toward employment to higher ages
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COVIV-19 BA2 Variant: Reported Cases and Hospitalizations Starting in April