SOCIAL SECURITY 

September 30, 2015 

The Honorable Ron Wyden

United States Senate

Washington, D.C. 20510

The Honorable Sandy Levin

United States House of Representatives

Washington, D.C. 20515

Dear Senator Wyden and Representative Levin: 

The Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) and Federal 

Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Funds released the 2015 Annual Report on July 22, 2015. Under 

the intermediate assumptions, the Trustees project that the OASI Trust Fund reserves will become 

depleted and unable to pay scheduled benefits in full on a timely basis starting in 2035. However, 

the Trustees project that the DI Trust Fund reserves will become depleted much sooner, in the 

fourth quarter of 2016. The reserves of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds are projected to 

become depleted in 2034 under the intermediate assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report. 

This letter presents our estimates of the effects on the OASI and DI Trust Funds of enacting the 

temporary reallocation of the payroll tax rate proposed in S. 2090 and H.R. 3621, identical bills 

introduced on September 28, 2015. We estimate this reallocation will equalize the projected years 

of reserve depletion for the two trust funds to 2034. We base these estimates on the intermediate 

assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report. 

The proposal would increase the total (employee plus employer) payroll tax rate for the DI Trust 

Fund by 0.85 percentage point, from 1.8 to 2.65 percent, for calendar years 2016 through 2020. 

The payroll tax rate for the OASI Trust Fund would be reduced by an equal amount so that the total 

OASDI payroll tax rate for these years would be unchanged. 

The table below shows Social Security payroll tax rates for years 2015 and later under present law 

and under the proposal. 

Social Security Payroll Tax Rates

Calendar 

Years

Employees and employers 

each

Self-employed

OASDI OASI DI OASDI OASI DI

Rates scheduled under present law

2015+ 6.2% 5.3% 0.9% 12.4% 10.6% 1.8%

Rates proposed in S. 2090 and H.R. 3621

2015 6.2% 5.3% 0.9% 12.4% 10.6% 1.8%

2016-20 6.2 4.875 1.325 12.4 9.75 2.65

2021+ 6.2 5.3 0.9 12.4 10.6 1.8

Note: Rates for 2015 and years after 2020 are unchanged under the proposal. 
Page 2 – The Honorable Ron Wyden and the Honorable Sandy Levin

Under the proposed reallocation of tax rates, we project the following:

 The financial status of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds is essentially the same as 

under present law. The combined asset reserves of the OASI and DI Trust Funds would 

become depleted in 2034. After reserve depletion in 2034, tax income would be sufficient to 

cover 79 percent of cost. This percent drops to 73 by 2089. 

 The asset reserves of the OASI Trust Fund would become depleted in 2034. After reserve 

depletion in 2034, tax income would cover 77 percent of cost. This percent drops to 71 by

2088.

 The asset reserves of the DI Trust Fund would become depleted in 2034. After reserve 

depletion in 2034, non-interest income would cover 89 percent of cost. This percent drops 

to 81 by 2089.

The graph below shows present law DI and OASI Trust Fund reserves as a percentage of annual 

cost under present law and under this reallocation schedule. 
Page 3 – The Honorable Ron Wyden and the Honorable Sandy Levin

The table below shows Trust Fund ratios (the amount of trust fund asset reserves at the beginning 

of the year expressed as a percent of annual program cost for the year) for the OASI and DI Trust 

Funds under current law and under the proposed reallocation schedule, as well as those of the 

combined OASDI Trust Fund.

Calendar 

Year

Trust Fund Ratios

OASI DI OASDI 

Current Law Proposal Current Law Proposal Combined

2015 362 362 40 40 308

2016 351 351 18 18 298

2017 333 326 --- 35 280

2018 315 302 --- 57 264

2019 298 278 --- 81 249

2020 281 256 --- 107 234

2021 266 234 --- 134 219

2022 249 218 --- 125 205

2023 233 203 --- 114 190

2024 216 186 --- 104 175

2025 199 170 --- 94 160

2026 183 154 --- 83 145

2027 166 138 --- 73 129

2028 149 121 --- 62 113

2029 131 104 --- 52 97

2030 113 86 --- 43 80

2031 95 67 --- 33 63

2032 76 48 --- 24 45

2033 56 28 --- 14 26

2034 35 7 --- 4 7

2035 15 --- --- --- ---

 
Page 4 – The Honorable Ron Wyden and the Honorable Sandy Levin

We hope these estimates will be helpful. Please let us know if we may provide further assistance.

Sincerely,

 

Stephen C. Goss, Chief Actuary

 

Karen P. Glenn, Acting Deputy Chief Actuary

 

 Chris Chaplain, Supervisory Actuary