BOARD OF TRUSTEES OF THE 

FEDERAL OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE AND 

FEDERAL DISABILITY INSURANCE TRUST FUNDS 

Washington, D.C., May 6, 2024 

HON. MIKE JOHNSON, 

Speaker of the House of Representatives. 

DEAR MR. SPEAKER: 

In accordance with the requirements of section 709 of the Social Security Act, 

“Recommendations by Board of Trustees to Remedy Inadequate Balances in the Social 

Security Trust Funds,” we are writing to notify you that we project that the asset reserves 

held in the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund will become 

inadequate under the meaning of this section within the next 10 years. As shown in the 

2024 OASDI Trustees Report, which we are issuing today and a copy of which is attached, 

the asset reserves expressed as a percentage of annual program cost (the balance ratio1) of 

the OASI Trust Fund are projected to fall below 20 percent by the beginning of calendar 

year 2033 based on our intermediate set of economic, demographic, and programmatic 

assumptions. Moreover, we project that the reserves of the OASI Trust Fund will be 

depleted soon after, during 2033, and only about 79 percent of benefits scheduled in 

current law will be payable at that time if no legislative action is taken. 

Background—Section 709 of the Social Security Act specifies: 

If the Board of Trustees . . . determines at any time that the balance ratio 

of any such Trust Fund for any calendar year may become less than 20 

percent, the Board shall promptly submit to each House of the Congress a 

report setting forth its recommendations for statutory adjustments affecting 

the receipts and disbursements of such Trust Fund necessary to maintain 

the balance ratio of such Trust Fund at not less than 20 percent, with due 

regard to the economic conditions which created such inadequacy in the 

balance ratio and the amount of time necessary to alleviate such 

inadequacy in a prudent manner. The report shall set forth specifically the 

extent to which benefits would have to be reduced, taxes . . . would have to 

be increased, or a combination thereof, in order to obtain the objectives 

referred to in the preceding sentence. 

The Board believes that issuing a report under this section, whenever the balance ratio of a 

trust fund is expected to fall below 20 percent within the first ten years of the projection 

(valuation) period for the current annual report, provides reasonable advance notice and 

time for prudent action to alleviate inadequacy in the balance ratio. The annual report that 

the Board submits to the Congress under section 201(c) of the Social Security Act 

1

 This ratio is also called a trust fund ratio in the 2024 OASDI Trustees Report. 
2 

(commonly referred to as the Trustees Report) provides a more extensive evaluation of the 

actuarial status of the trust funds through the next 75 years. 

The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund—Estimates in the 2024 Trustees 

Report show that although the Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund and the hypothetical 

combined OASI and DI Trust Funds are adequately financed in the meaning of this section 

(709) through the first 10 years projected under the intermediate assumptions (those

representing the Trustees’ best estimate of future economic and demographic trends), the

OASI fund alone is not.

Under the intermediate assumptions of the 2024 Trustees Report, the OASI Trust Fund 

reserves decline throughout the projection period, reaching 36 percent of annual cost at the 

beginning of 2032, falling to 16 percent of annual cost by the beginning of calendar year 

2033, and becoming depleted in the fourth quarter of 2033. The figure below shows the 

estimated balance ratios for the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds and for the OASI 

Trust Fund up to the date of trust fund reserve depletion, and for the DI Trust Fund through 

2040. The DI Trust Fund reserves are projected to not be depleted in the 75-year projection 

period of the 2024 Trustees Report. 

Balance ratios for the OASI and DI Trust Funds, separately and combined, 

based on present law under the Intermediate Assumptions of the 

2024 Trustees Report, 1990-2040 

Maintaining a Balance Ratio of at Least 20 Percent—The following table shows annual 

amounts of change necessary where a change would be required to keep the OASI balance 

ratio from dropping below 20 percent through the end of 2033 (equivalently through the 
3 

beginning of 2034). For calendar years through 2033, the table shows the amounts of: (1) 

additional payroll tax revenue alone, (2) benefit cost reductions alone, and (3) a 

combination of approximately equal amounts of payroll tax revenue increases and benefit 

cost reductions needed to meet this goal. Additional changes in OASI revenue and/or 

benefit cost would be required in subsequent years in increasing amounts in order to 

maintain an OASI balance ratio of at least 20 percent beyond the beginning of calendar 

year 2034. 

The additional payroll tax revenue amounts (alone) required for each year to meet the 20-

percent minimum OASI balance ratio differ from the required reductions in benefit cost 

(alone) for that year, particularly in 2032, where a change in cost would not be required. In 

order to maintain a balance ratio of 20 percent for 2033 with only payroll tax increases, the 

entire improvement of the balance ratio must be accomplished through payroll tax increase 

in 2032. However, maintaining a balance ratio of 20 percent for 2033 with only benefit 

cost reductions can be accomplished solely with reduced benefit cost in 2033; the trust 

fund reserves at the start of 2033 (the numerator of the 2033 balance ratio) would remain 

the same, and the benefit cost in 2033 (the denominator of the 2033 balance ratio) is 

decreased. Necessary increases in payroll tax (alone) and reductions in benefit cost (alone) 

are close for 2033 and 2034 (and would continue to be close in subsequent years). Under 

the combined approach, approximately one-half of the change required would be made 

through additional payroll tax revenue and one-half would be implemented through benefit 

cost reductions. 

Changes required through 2033 to prevent the OASI balance ratio from declining below 20 percent 

through the beginning of 2034 under the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2024 Trustees Report 

(In billions) 

Calendar 

year

Additional 

payroll tax 

revenue only 

Benefit cost 

reduction only 

Total amounts of additional payroll tax 

revenue and benefit cost reductions 

under a combined approach 

2032 $74.7 $0.0 $31.5 

2033 417.2 428.5 428.9 

Total, 

2032-2033 491.9 428.5 460.4 

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components. 

Recommendation—Based on the intermediate projections in the 2024 Trustees Report, 

the OASI Trust Fund reserves will fall below 20 percent of annual cost by the beginning of 

calendar year 2033 and will become depleted in 2033 in the absence of legislation to 

address this imbalance between scheduled benefits and revenue. 

Lawmakers need to take prompt action to strengthen the actuarial status of the OASI Trust 

Fund. Lawmakers could choose (1) to increase revenues to the OASI Trust Fund, (2) to 

reduce cost through modification of the OASI program benefit levels or eligibility 

requirements, or (3) to use a combination of methods to strengthen the financial condition 

of the OASI Trust Fund. Such actions could apply only to the OASI program benefits and 

revenue or might have effects also on the DI program. 
4 

The Board recommends that lawmakers enact timely legislation to make necessary 

adjustments for the OASI program. 

Respectfully, 

JANET YELLEN, 

Secretary of the Treasury, 

and Managing Trustee 

of the Trust Funds.

JULIE A. SU, 

Acting Secretary of Labor, 

and Trustee.

XAVIER BECERRA, 

Secretary of Health 

and Human Services, 

and Trustee.

MARTIN O’MALLEY,

Commissioner of Social Security, 

and Trustee.

VACANT, 

Public Trustee.

VACANT, 

Public Trustee.

KILOLO KIJAKAZI, 

Principal Senior Advisor to the Commissioner, 

Social Security Administration, 

and Secretary, Board of Trustees.