Social Security Area

Population Projections:

1997

Actuarial Study No. 112

by Felicitie C. Bell

Social Security Administration

Office of the Chief Actuary

August 1997

SSA Pub. No. 11-11553
.
Social Security Area Population Projections: 1997

Table of Contents

i

I. Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

A. Population Size and Growth -- Intermediate Assumption. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

B. Recent Trends in Population Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

C. Demographic Assumptions - 1997 Trustees Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

1. Fertility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

2. Mortality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

3. Immigration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

D. New This Year. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

II. Assumptions and Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

A. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

B. Starting Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

C. Analysis and Projection of Components of Population Change. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

1. Fertility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

2. Mortality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

3. Net Immigration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

4. Marriage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

5. Divorce . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46

D. Methods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48

1. Fertility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

2. Mortality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

a. Probability of Survival . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

b. Number of Deaths . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

c. Number of Widowings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

3. Net Immigration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

4. Marriage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

5. Divorce . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
ii

III. Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57

A. Total Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57

B. Population by Marital Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117

C. Aged Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118

D. Demographic Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
List of Tables

iii

Table i. — Social Security July 1 Population and Dependency Ratios, 

by Broad Age Group, Calendar Years 1950-2080 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

Table ii. — Selected Demographic Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Table 1. — Population in the Social Security Area, January 1, 1995

by Age Group, Sex, and Marital Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Table 2. — Existing Marriages in the Social Security Area, January 1, 1995 

 by Age of Husband and Wife. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Table 3. — Total Fertility Rates by Calendar Year and Alternative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Table 4. — Central Birth Rates by Age, Calendar Year, and Alternative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Table 5. — Age-Sex-Adjusted and Age-Adjusted, by Sex, Central Death Rates

by Calendar Year and Alternative. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Table 6. — Average Annual Percentage Reductions in Central Death Rates 

During 1968 - 1994 by Age Group, Sex, and Cause of Death Cause of death . . . . . 20

Table 7a. — Central Death Rates by Age Group and Sex for 

Selected Historical Calendar Years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

Table 7b. — Central Death Rates by Age Group and Sex, 

Under the 1997 Trustees Report Low Cost Alternative for 

Calendar Years 2000-2080 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

Table 7c. — Central Death Rates by Age Group and Sex, 

Under the 1997 Trustees Report Intermediate Alternative for 

Calendar Years 2000-2080 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

Table 7d. — Central Death Rates by Age Group and Sex, 

Under the 1997 Trustees Report High Cost Alternative for 

Calendar Years 2000-2080 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

Table 8. — Central Death Rates by Age Group, Sex, and Marital Status

Based on 1980-81 Data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

Table 9. — Life Expectancy at Birth and Age 65 by Sex, Calendar Year, and Alternative . . . . . 29

Table 10. — Legal Immigrants Admitted to the United States, 1901-1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

Table 11. — Legal Immigrants Admitted to the United States

Reflecting Revised Categories in the 1990 Immigration Act . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

Table 12. — Assumed Annual Net Legal Immigration by Age Group, Sex, and Alternative . . . . 36

Table 13. — Assumed Annual Net Other-Than-Legal Immigration 

by Age Group, Sex, and Alternative. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

Table 14. — Age-Adjusted Central Marriage Rates in the Marriage Registration Area

 by Calendar Year and Alternative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

Table 15. — Assumed Central Marriage Rates for Alternative II by Age of Husband and Wife . . 44

Table 16. — Average of Calendar Years 1979 and 1981-86 Central Marriage Rates

 by Age Group, Sex, and Marital Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

Table 17. — Age-Adjusted Central Divorce Rates by Calendar Year and Alternative. . . . . . . . . . 47

Table 18. — Assumed Central Divorce Rates for Alternative II by Age of Husband and Wife. . . 48
iv

Table 19. — United States Life Table Functions in Calendar Year 1994 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50

Table 20. — Selected Vital Events in the Social Security Area by 

Calendar Year and Alternative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55

Table 21a. — January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, for Selected Historical Calendar Years 1970-1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58

Table 21b. — January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Low Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64

Table 21c. — January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Intermediate Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81

Table 21d. — January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report High Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98

Table 22. — Median Age of the Population by Calendar Year, and Alternative. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116

Table 23. — Population in the Social Security Area as of January 1 and Selected Ratios by 

Year and Alternative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121

Table 24. — Aged Dependency Ratios at Selected Retirement Ages by 

Calendar Year and Alternative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124

Table 25. — Retirement Age at Selected Aged Dependency Ratios by 

Calendar Year and Alternative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
List of Figures

v

 Figure 1. — Total Fertility Rate 1920-2030,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

 Figure 2. — Male and Female Life Expectancy 1900-2080, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

 Figure 3. — Age-Adjusted Marriage Rates

in the MRA, 1957-1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

 Figure 4. — Social Security Area Population , 1940-2080. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57

 Figure 5. — Median Age of Total Population and 65 and over Population

Actual and Projected Intermediate Alternative. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115

 Figure 6a.— Distribution of the Population by Marital Status, Ages 0 through 100

January 1, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117

 Figure 6b.— Distribution of the Population by Marital Status, Ages 0 through 100 

January 1, 2080, Intermediate Alternative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118

 Figure 7. — Social Security Area Population Aged 65 and Older, 1940-2080

Actual and Projected by Alternative. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119

 Figure 8. — Aged Dependency Ratio, 1940 through 2080,

Actual and Projected by Alternative. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
.
1

Social Security Area Population Projections: 1997

I. Overview

A. Population Size and Growth -- Intermediate Assumption

 • The population in the Social Security Area is expected to rise from 272 million in 1995 to

381 million in 2080 - an increase of 40 percent. The population at or above age 65 (normal

retirement age), rises from 34 million in 1995 to 87 million in 2080 - a more than 250 percent increase. The population at or above age 85 rises from 3.8 million in 1995 to 18.3 million in 2080 - an almost 500 percent increase. 

 • The aged dependency ratio, the ratio of persons of retirement age (currently ages 65 and

older), divided by the number of persons of working age (currently ages 20 through age 64),

is estimated to be .215 in 1996 for a normal retirement age of 65. The aged dependency ratio

at age 65 initially decreases to .207 in 2005, then increases to .314 in 2025, .372 in 2050 and

.421 in 2080.

Under current law, the normal retirement age begins rising in the early 21st century, ultimately reaching age 67. Modifying the aged dependency ratio to reflect the increase in the

normal retirement age, the aged dependency ratio for age 66, which becomes the normal

retirement age in 2005, is .193. The normal retirement age reaches 67 in 2022. In 2025 the

aged dependency ratio is .260 for age 67 compared to .314 for age 65. In 2080 the aged

dependency ratio is projected to be .365 for a normal retirement age of 67 and .421 for a

normal retirement age of 65.
2

1

 Population aged 65 and over, divided by population aged 20-64.

 Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.

B. Recent Trends in Population Components 

 • The additional three years (1992, 1993, 1994) of final cause of death data show lower than

previously anticipated death rates for both males and females.

 • During the period 1982 through 1994, mortality reduction was greater for males than

females. In this century prior to the most recent experience, mortality reduction was typically greater for females than for males.

 • Persons ages 65 and over experienced substantial increases in death rates due to respiratory

disease and diabetes between 1982 and 1994. •Death rates due to cancer are continuing to

increase. Cancer is projected to replace heart disease as the number one cause of death by

2005. 

 • The total fertility rate has begun to decline from the recent high of 2.1 experienced in 1990,

1991 and 1992. The latest data is showing a slow steady decline through 1995, with rates

rounding to 2.0.

 • Immigration continues to be of great public interest. Legal immigration is at a new high

since World War II. Even after considering recent legislation, annual net other-than-legal

immigration is expected to continue at recent high rates because economic opportunity in

the native countries of the majority of other-than-legal aliens is expected to continue to lag

far behind that of the United States.

Table i.—Social Security July 1 Population and Dependency Ratios, by Broad 

Age Group, Calendar Years 1950-2080

Calendar

 Year

Population (in thousands) Aged 

Dependency 

ratio1 Under 20 20 - 64 65 and over Total

Historical data:

1950 53,895 92,739 12,752 159,386 0.138

1960 72,989 99,842 17,250 190,081 .173

1970 80,672 113,184 20,920 214,776 .185

1980 74,560 134,420 26,148 235,128 .195

1985 73,220 144,860 29,059 247,140 .201

1990 75,112 152,886 31,978 259,977 .209

1995 79,055 159,608 34,211 272,874 .214

Intermediate Alternative:

2000 81,379 168,093 35,408 284,880 .211

2005 81,730 177,533 36,813 296,076 .207

2010 81,387 185,811 39,814 307,011 .214

2020 81,785 192,994 53,044 327,822 .275

2030 83,245 192,410 68,394 344,049 .355

2040 83,294 198,365 73,191 354,850 .369

2050 84,160 202,682 75,398 362,241 .372

2060 84,947 203,139 80,796 368,882 .398

2070 85,469 205,837 84,380 375,686 .410

2080 86,177 207,605 87,491 381,272 .421
3

C. Demographic Assumptions - 1997 Trustees Report

1. Fertility

 • The total fertility rate for 1996 is estimated at 2.01 children per woman.

 • The ultimate total fertility rates are assumed to average 2.2 children per woman for the low

cost alternative, 1.9 for the intermediate alternative, and 1.6 for the high cost alternative.

The ultimate total fertility rate for each alternative is assumed to be reached in the year

2021.

2. Mortality

 • The ultimate rates of reduction in mortality by age group, sex, and cause of death remain the

same as those used in the 1996 Trustees Report. Three years of additional data (1992, 1993,

1994) result in somewhat higher life expectancy throughout the projection period.

 • 1968 through 1982 was a period of rapid reduction in mortality, averaging 1.8 percent for

males and 2.2 percent for females, annually. Between 1982 to 1994 mortality improved at a

slower rate, decreasing at an average rate of 0.8 percent per year for males and 0.5 percent

for females.

 • The age-sex-adjusted death rate is assumed to decrease steadily during the entire projection

period, with a total reduction of 35 percent, for the intermediate projection, from the 1996

level by 2071. Life expectancies at birth in 2080 are 79.2 years for men and 84.5 years for

women, compared to 72.6 and 79.3 years, respectively, in 1996. Life expectancies at age 65

in 2080 are projected to be 19.0 years for men and 22.5 years for women, compared to 15.5

and 19.2 years, respectively, in 1996.

3. Immigration

 • For 2000 and later, the annual number of net immigrants are assumed to be 1,150,000 for

the low cost alternative, 900,000 for the intermediate alternative, and 750,000 for the high

cost alternative.

 • Annual levels of net legal immigration are assumed to be 700,000 for the low cost alternative, 600,000 for the intermediate alternative, and 550,000 for the high cost alternative for

2000 and later. The net other-than-legal levels for each year are assumed to be 450,000,

300,000 and 200,000, per year, under low cost, intermediate, and high cost alternatives,

respectively.

D. New This Year

 • Expanded section on immigration, including additional historical tables

 • Period Life Table for 1994 included in Methods section on deaths. 
4

1

 The total fertility rate for any year is the average number of children who would be born to a woman in her lifetime if she 

were to experience the birthrates by age observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire 

child-bearing period. The ultimate total fertility rate is assumed to be reached in 2021.

2

 The age-sex-adjusted death rate is the crude death rate that would occur in the enumerated total population as of April 1, 

1990, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex observed in, or assumed to for, the selected year.

3

 The life expectancy for any year is the average number of years of life remaining for a person if that person were to experience the death rates by age observed in, or assumed for, the selected year.

Table ii.—Selected Demographic Assumptions

Calendar

 Year

Total Fertility 

Rate1

Age-sex-adjusted 

Death Rate2

(per 100,000)

Life expectancy3

 At Birth At Age 65

Male Female Male Female

Historical data:

1940 2.23 1,672.6 61.4 65.7 11.9 13.4

1945 2.42 1,488.6 62.9 68.4 12.6 14.4

1950 3.03 1,339.9 65.6 71.1 12.8 15.1

1955 3.50 1,243.0 66.7 72.8 13.1 15.6

1960 3.61 1,237.9 66.7 73.2 12.9 15.9

1965 2.88 1,210.8 66.8 73.8 12.9 16.3

1970 2.43 1,138.4 67.1 74.9 13.1 17.1

1975 1.77 1,020.9 68.7 76.6 13.7 18.0

1980 1.85 961.1 69.9 77.5 14.0 18.4

1985 1.84 912.3 71.1 78.2 14.4 18.6

1990 2.07 865.9 71.8 78.9 15.0 19.0

1995 2.02 838.4 72.6 79.0 15.6 19.0

Intermediate Alternative:

2000 2.00 804.7 73.2 79.7 15.8 19.3

2005 1.97 771.7 74.1 80.1 16.0 19.5

2010 1.95 746.7 74.7 80.5 16.2 19.6

2015 1.93 725.0 75.1 80.8 16.4 19.8

2020 1.90 704.0 75.5 81.1 16.6 20.0

2025 1.90 684.0 75.8 81.5 16.8 20.2

2030 1.90 665.0 76.2 81.8 17.0 20.4

2035 1.90 646.9 76.5 82.1 17.3 20.7

2040 1.90 629.7 76.8 82.4 17.5 20.9

2050 1.90 597.8 77.5 82.9 17.8 21.3

2060 1.90 568.7 78.1 83.5 18.2 21.7

2070 1.90 542.2 78.6 84.0 18.6 22.1

2080 1.90 518.0 79.2 84.5 19.0 22.5
5

II. Assumptions and Methods

A. Introduction

Actuarial estimates of future income and expenditures of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program are presented every year to the Congress in the Annual Report of the 

Board of Trustees. These estimates provide fundamental financial guidelines for the policy making process of the OASDI program.

The initial step in the actuarial estimating process is to project the number of people covered by OASDI 

for each of the next 75 years. This study provides details about the population projections used in preparing the actuarial estimates in the 1997 Annual Report of the OASDI Board of Trustees. These population 

projections were also used in estimating the future financial status of the Hospital Insurance (HI) program 

as described in the 1997 Annual Report of the HI Board of Trustees.

The population projections described in this study supersede those published in Actuarial Study Number 

110, which were used in the preparation of the 1996 Annual Reports. These new projections start from an 

estimate of the January 1, 1995 population; reflect more recent data on fertility, mortality, immigration, 

marriage, and divorce; and revise the projections of mortality, fertility, immigration, divorce, and marriage. Considerably more detailed data than are published here are available from the Office of the Chief 

Actuary, upon request.

Because eligibility for many categories of OASDI benefits depends on marital status, the population is 

projected by marital status, as well as by age and sex. The projections start from a recent estimate of the 

population in the Social Security Area by age, sex, and marital status and from a recent estimate of existing marriages by age of husband and age of wife. Three separate projections, an intermediate, a low cost 

and a high cost, are developed by analyzing historical data and adopting three different sets of assumptions about future net immigration, birth rates, death rates, marriage rates and divorce rates.

The intermediate projection, designated as alternative II, is based on the set of assumptions that is thought 

to be the most likely to occur among the three sets presented. The low cost, or optimistic, designated as 

alternative I, produces the most favorable financial effect for the OASDI program. Similarly, the set of 

assumptions chosen for the high cost, or pessimistic designated as alternative III, produces the most unfavorable financial effect. The low cost and high cost alternatives are designed to give policy makers a 

sense of the range of variation in the financial projections that might occur if the intermediate assumptions are not realized.

B. Starting Population

The starting population for the projections was the estimated population in the Social Security Area as of 

January 1, 1995, by single year of age, sex, and marital status. Because the most complete data were 

available as of July 1, the population as of January 1, 1995 was interpolated from estimates of the Social 

Security Area population as of July 1, 1994, and July 1, 1995. For some of the territorial components, the 

needed estimates were not available as of July 1, 1995. In these cases, the July 1, 1995 population estimates were assumed equal to the latest available estimates that had been prepared after the 1990 census. 

The Bureau of the Census is continually revising and updating the populations it provides to users. This 

means that historical population estimates change due to new data and revised methods of dealing with 
6

missing data, data errors, and other data problems. The territorial components of the Social Security Area 

and the total estimated population of each component (in thousands) as of July 1 are as follows: 

The estimates of the number of residents of the fifty States and D.C. and Armed Forces overseas as of the 

above July 1 dates by sex for single years of age through 84, and for the group aged 85 or older, were 

obtained from the Bureau of the Census. The adjustment for net census undercount was estimated using 

postcensal survey data from the Bureau of the Census. The numbers of persons in the other components 

of the Social Security Area as of the above July 1 dates were estimated by sex for single years of age 

through 84, and for the group aged 85 or older, from data of varying detail. The numbers of civilian residents of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Guam, American Samoa, Palau and the Northern Mariana 

Islands were estimated from data obtained from the Bureau of the Census. The numbers of Federal civilian employees overseas, dependents of these Federal civilian employees, and dependents of Armed 

Forces overseas were based on estimates used by the Bureau of Census. The number of crew members of 

merchant vessels was estimated from data obtained from the Maritime Administration. The number of 

other citizens overseas covered by Social Security was estimated from data supplied by the Department of 

State. The overlap among the components, believed to be small, was ignored.

The July 1, 1994 and July 1, 1995 Social Security Area population estimates by sex for single years of age 

through age 84, and for the group aged 85 or older, were then interpolated to obtain the starting population as of January 1, 1995. Data from the Medicare program was used to distribute the starting population 

aged 85 or older into single years of age. The distribution of the starting population by marital status 

(never married, currently married, currently widowed, and currently divorced) was estimated by age and 

sex from data published by the Bureau of the Census in Current Population Reports, Series P-20, No. 478. 

Table 1 shows this starting population by age group, sex, and marital status.

Component

July 1

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

Residents of the fifty States and D.C. 

and armed forces overseas 249,910 252,646 255,431 258,140 260,655 263,036

Adjustment for net census 

undercount 4,697 4,732 4,771 4,875 4,898 4,994

Civilian residents of Puerto Rico 3,522 3,522 3,522 3,522 3,522 3,522

Civilian residents of the Virgin Islands 102 102 102 102 102 102

Civilian residents of Guam 133 133 133 133 133 133

Civilian residents of American Samoa, 

Palau, and Northern Mariana Islands 105 105 105 105 105 105

Federal civilian employees 

overseas 60 60 60 60 60 60

Dependents of Armed Forces and Federal employees overseas 460 429 429 429 429 429

Crew members of merchant 

vessels 12 12 12 12 12 12

Other citizens overseas 525 525 525 525 525 525

Total 259,526 262,266 265,090 267,903 270,441 272,918
7

The distribution of the number of existing marriages in the starting population by age of husband crossed 

with age of wife was estimated from data published by the Bureau of the Census in the 1980 Census of 

Population, Subject Report on Marital Status No. PC80-2-4C. The 1980 census distribution was adjusted 

to represent January 1, 1995 by an iterative proration method designed to assure consistency with the previously estimated number of marriages by age and sex in the starting population. Table 2 shows the number of marriages in the starting population by age group of husband crossed with age group of wife.

Table 1.—Population in the Social Security Area, January 1, 1995 

 by Age Group, Sex, and Marital Status

(In thousands)

Male Female

Agegroup Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

 0-4 20,888 10,684 10,684 0 0 0 10,204 10,204 0 0 0

 5-9 20,232 10,354 10,354 0 0 0 9,878 9,878 0 0 0

10-14 19,552 10,001 10,001 0 0 0 9,551 9,550 1 0 0

15-19 18,016 9,208 9,084 112 1 11 8,808 8,398 387 8 15

20-24 18,640 9,493 7,423 1,946 4 121 9,147 5,633 3,207 14 293

25-29 20,360 10,370 4,821 5,003 7 540 9,990 2,929 6,267 36 759

30-34 23,138 11,772 3,180 7,583 26 983 11,366 1,795 8,288 94 1,189

35-39 22,932 11,593 1,849 8,370 45 1,330 11,339 1,066 8,551 174 1,547

40-44 20,457 10,248 1,061 7,879 57 1,250 10,209 691 7,731 270 1,518

45-49 17,733 8,827 740 6,945 89 1,053 8,906 510 6,759 355 1,282

50-54 13,917 6,875 440 5,525 130 780 7,042 324 5,370 476 872

55-59 11,411 5,577 356 4,539 145 536 5,835 250 4,181 775 629

60-64 10,361 4,963 320 3,999 243 401 5,398 235 3,601 1,132 429

65-69 10,105 4,670 283 3,710 356 320 5,435 250 3,177 1,658 351

70-74 8,967 3,949 223 3,028 480 218 5,019 256 2,363 2,138 261

75-79 6,629 2,699 143 1,959 500 97 3,930 242 1,256 2,300 133

80-84 4,486 1,601 82 1,061 412 45 2,885 191 625 1,990 79

85-89 2,506 751 38 388 304 20 1,755 117 286 1,304 48

90-94 1,013 246 13 87 140 7 767 51 84 611 21

95 + 315 60 3 10 45 2 255 17 13 218 7

 0-19 78,688 40,247 40,123 112 1 12 38,441 38,030 388 8 15

20-64 158,949 79,718 20,189 51,789 746 6,994 79,231 13,433 53,953 3,326 8,519

50-64 35,689 17,415 1,115 14,063 519 1,718 18,274 809 13,151 2,383 1,930

62-64 6,210 2,957 190 2,376 162 230 3,253 143 2,130 737 242

65 + 34,022 13,975 784 10,243 2,238 709 20,047 1,125 7,803 10,219 900

20-65 161,028 80,699 20,250 52,573 810 7,066 80,329 13,483 54,632 3,619 8,595

20-66 163,097 81,666 20,310 53,343 879 7,135 81,431 13,533 55,295 3,935 8,668

20-67 165,138 82,609 20,367 54,092 951 7,199 82,529 13,583 55,937 4,270 8,739

20-68 167,112 83,510 20,420 54,806 1,025 7,259 83,602 13,633 56,545 4,618 8,806

20-69 169,054 84,388 20,472 55,499 1,103 7,314 84,666 13,684 57,130 4,983 8,870

66 + 31,943 12,993 723 9,459 2,174 637 18,949 1,075 7,124 9,926 825

67 + 29,874 12,027 663 8,689 2,106 568 17,847 1,025 6,461 9,610 751

68 + 27,833 11,083 606 7,940 2,034 504 16,749 975 5,820 9,275 680

 69 + 25,859 10,183 553 7,226 1,959 445 15,676 925 5,212 8,927 613

70 + 23,917 9,305 501 6,533 1,882 389 14,612 875 4,626 8,561 550

Total 271,659 133,940 61,096 62,144 2,985 7,715 137,719 52,588 62,144 13,553 9,434
8

C. Analysis and Projection of Components of Population Change

In attempting to estimate net immigration and numbers of births, deaths, marriages, and divorces in future 

years, it is instructive to review and analyze historical trends. Since the actual numbers of births, deaths, 

marriages, and divorces depend on the size of the population, it is better to analyze them as rates rather 

than as absolute numbers. A rate is defined as the ratio of the number of occurrences of an event during a 

year to the midyear population having the potential to experience the event. Because death rates vary significantly by sex, they are calculated for males and females separately. Because rates of birth, death, marriage, and divorce vary greatly by age, they are calculated on an age-specific basis (each age or age group 

separately) rather than on a crude basis (all ages combined).

Although calculating the rates on an age-specific basis improves accuracy, it also yields a vast number of 

figures for each year. Thus, to study trends through time, it becomes helpful, if not necessary, to use a single statistic that summarizes the age-specific rates for each year. A summarizing statistic is described in 

this section for each component of population change.

1. Fertility

Age-specific birth rates are defined as the births during the year to mothers at the specified age divided by 

the midyear female population at that age. Birth rates for women at each age 14 through 49 were obtained 

from the National Center for Health Statistics for each year 1917 through 1994. To summarize the fertility experience for a single year, total fertility rates were used. The total fertility rate is a simple sum of the 

age-specific birth rates applicable during the year. Thus the total fertility rate can be interpreted as the 

number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to survive her childbearing years and were 

to experience those age-specific birth rates throughout her childbearing years. Table 3 give past and projected total fertility rates by alternative.

Table 2.—Existing Marriages in the Social Security Area, January 1, 1995 

 by Age of Husband and Wife 

(In thousands)

Age group 

of husband

Age group of Wife

Total 14-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95 +

14-19 112 73 31 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

20-24 1,946 249 1,377 255 39 12 5 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

25-29 5,003 48 1,363 2,980 478 85 25 11 6 3 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0

30-34 7,583 10 313 2,338 4,130 602 131 39 11 4 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0

35-39 8,370 3 82 503 2,840 4,165 594 133 34 9 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0

40-44 7,879 2 25 129 586 2,867 3,571 547 115 25 7 3 1 1 0 0 0 0

45-49 6,945 1 8 37 145 589 2,593 3,012 448 80 20 8 3 1 0 0 0 0

50-54 5,525 1 3 11 41 146 566 2,176 2,142 331 71 24 8 3 1 0 0 0

55-59 4,539 0 2 5 15 49 155 568 1,780 1,562 291 78 25 7 2 1 0 0

60-64 3,999 0 1 2 6 20 56 174 557 1,428 1,323 319 85 20 5 2 1 0

65-69 3,710 0 1 2 3 9 22 62 185 509 1,295 1,243 299 61 12 5 1 0

70-74 3,028 0 0 1 2 4 9 23 64 166 432 1,074 1,004 195 34 14 4 1

75-79 1,959 0 0 1 1 2 3 7 20 48 120 327 718 551 103 45 12 2

80-84 1,061 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 9 22 60 142 278 331 159 46 7

85-89 388 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 10 27 60 109 109 47 15 2

90-94 87 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 6 14 25 23 10 4 1

95+ 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 2 1 0 0

Total 62,144 388 3,207 6,267 8,288 8,551 7,731 6,759 5,370 4,181 3,601 3,177 2,363 1,256 625 286 84 13
9

Table 3.—Total Fertility Rates by Calendar Year and Alternative 

(Per hundred thousand) 

Calendar year Total fertility rate

1917 3,333.3

1918 3,312.2

1919 3,067.7

1920 3,263.3

1921 3,326.2

1922 3,109.4

1923 3,101.2

1924 3,120.7

1925 3,011.6

1926 2,900.7

1927 2,824.3

1928 2,659.8

1929 2,532.0

1930 2,532.5

1931 2,401.7

1932 2,318.6

1933 2,172.0

1934 2,232.0

1935 2,188.7

1936 2,145.6

1937 2,173.3

1938 2,221.7

1939 2,171.7

1940 2,229.0

1941 2,331.5

1942 2,554.8

1943 2,640.2

1944 2,494.5

1945 2,421.8

1946 2,857.9

1947 3,181.2

1948 3,026.2

1949 3,036.2

1950 3,028.0

1951 3,199.1

1952 3,286.5

1953 3,349.4

1954 3,461.2

1955 3,498.3

1956 3,604.7

1957 3,682.4

1958 3,628.9

1959 3,638.2

1960 3,605.7

1961 3,563.9

1962 3,423.3

1963 3,297.8

1964 3,170.9

1965 2,881.6
10

Calendar year Total fertility rate

1966 2,670.4

1967 2,525.5

1968 2,431.0

1969 2,422.9

1970 2,431.7

1971 2,245.4

1972 1,993.6

1973 1,862.5

1974 1,824.4

1975 1,770.3

1976 1,744.8

1977 1,795.0

1978 1,764.4

1979 1,816.7

1980 1,849.0

1981 1,825.4

1982 1,834.7

1983 1,805.3

1984 1,796.4

1985 1,839.6

1986 1,838.8

1987 1,869.9

1988 1,925.7

1989 2,005.8

1990 2,068.8

1991 2,066.7

1992 2,063.6

1993 2,044.6

1994 2,036.6

1995 2,016.7

1996 2,012.8

Low Cost Intermediate High Cost

1997 2,030.6 2,008.8 1,986.3

1998 2,037.6 2,004.7 1,970.8

1999 2,044.6 2,000.6 1,955.3

2000 2,051.6 1,996.4 1,939.9

2001 2,058.6 1,992.0 1,924.5

2002 2,065.5 1,987.5 1,908.8

2003 2,072.4 1,983.0 1,893.0

2004 2,079.3 1,978.3 1,877.1

2005 2,086.2 1,973.7 1,861.2

2006 2,093.2 1,969.1 1,844.9

2007 2,100.2 1,964.6 1,828.5

2008 2,107.2 1,960.2 1,812.1

2009 2,114.3 1,955.7 1,795.6

2010 2,121.4 1,951.0 1,778.9

Table 3.—Total Fertility Rates by Calendar Year and Alternative (Cont.)

(Per hundred thousand) 
11

As a first step in projecting fertility, it is instructive to examine the recent history of fertility in the United 

States. During the period 1917 to 1925, the total fertility rate was more than three children per woman. 

During the period 1924 to 1933 the total fertility rate declined from 3.1 children per woman to 2.2, and 

then remained level at 2.1 to 2.2 children per woman through 1940. After 1940, the total fertility rate 

once again began to rise, reaching a peak of 3.7 in 1957. This period of high fertility was followed by a 

period of declining fertility, reaching a low of 1.74 in 1976. In one decade, from 1962 to 1972, the total 

fertility rate declined from 3.4 to 2.0 children per woman. The total fertility rate was fairly stable at 1.8 

children per woman until 1987, when it started to increase, reaching a high of 2.07 in 1990. The total fertility rate remained stable through 1992, decreasing slightly to 2.04 in 1993 and 1994. The estimated total 

fertility rate, based on preliminary data, for 1995 is 2.02. Figure 1 shows the total fertility rate historically 

and by alternative.

 Figure 1.—Total Fertility Rate

(in children per woman) 1920-2030,

Actual and Projected by Alternative

Calendar Year

Low Cost Intermediate High Cost

2011 2,128.6 1,946.3 1,762.1

2012 2,135.7 1,941.6 1,745.4

2013 2,142.8 1,936.9 1,728.8

2014 2,149.9 1,932.2 1,712.3

2015 2,157.0 1,927.6 1,695.8

2016 2,164.1 1,922.8 1,679.5

2017 2,171.2 1,918.1 1,663.2

2018 2,178.4 1,913.5 1,647.0

2019 2,185.6 1,908.9 1,630.9

2020 2,192.7 1,904.5 1,615.4

2021 2,200.0 1,900.0 1,600.0

Table 3.—Total Fertility Rates by Calendar Year and Alternative (Cont.)

(Per hundred thousand) 

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

I

II

III
12

On average, the ultimate intermediate total fertility rate is expected to be 1.9. The total fertility rate is not 

expected to return to the high levels of the 1940's, the 1950's, and early 1960's. Several changes in our 

society have occurred during the past 20 years which have contributed to reducing the number of children 

being born. Some of these changes are increased availability and use of birth control methods, increased 

female participation in the labor force, increased prevalence of divorce, increased postponement of marriage and childbearing among young women, and the shift in the perception of the status of children 

within their families from economic assets to economic liabilities. No significant reversal of these 

changes is anticipated.

The increase in the total fertility rate for the United States between 1976 and 1990 is largely the result of 

increases in birth rates among women in their 30s who put off having children when they were in the 20s. 

Birthrates for women under 30 were fairly stable for the 1976 through 1990 period. Data for 1991 

through 1995 indicates a stabilization of the birth rates for women in their 30s and a slight decline for 

women under 30.

The latest birth expectation survey published by the Bureau of the Census in the Current Population 

Reports, Series P-20, No. 454, shows birth expectations in the neighborhood of 2.0 to 2.1 children per 

woman. However, when comparing past birth expectation surveys with actual experience, birth expectations have tended to be higher than the actual number of births. Single women and childless married 

women who were surveyed have consistently had fewer births than they expected (see, "Assessing Birth 

Expectations from Current Population Survey: 1971-1981" by Martin O'Connell and Carolyn Rogers in 

Demography, August, 1983). Taking into account all these factors, an ultimate total fertility rate of 1.9 

children per woman was selected as the intermediate assumption for the 1997 report.

To help in selecting ultimate rates for the low cost and high cost alternatives, an examination of the recent 

total fertility rates in other nations is useful. A comparison of the total fertility rates for the most recent 

calendar year, as published in the 1994 United Nations Demographic Yearbook, for the U.S., Canada, and 

nineteen industrialized countries revealed a range of 2.1 in New Zealand to 1.3 in Italy, Greece and Spain. 

While rates as high as 2.7 children per woman have been recorded over the past decade (Ireland, 1983), 

the highest rates these countries are currently experiencing range from 2.0 to 2.1, with the U. S. currently 

at 2.0. At or just below the 1.9 total fertility rate selected as the intermediate assumption are Australia, 

Canada, Finland, France, Norway and the United Kingdom. For reasons already cited, we do not believe 

that the total fertility rate for the U.S. will return to a level as high as 2.5 for any sustained period, and 

have selected 2.2 as the optimistic, low cost assumption. New Zealand was the only country to have a 

total fertility rate at or above 2.2. Austria, Belgium, Greece, Italy, Japan, Portugal, Spain, and West Germany, had total fertility rates under 1.6. Therefore, it is plausible that the total fertility rate could be as 

low as 1.6 children per woman over a long period of time. Thus, we have selected 1.6 as the pessimistic, 

high cost assumption. The ultimate total fertility rate for each alternative was assumed to be first reached 

in calendar year 2021. The ultimate values selected for the 1997 Trustees Report are lower than those 

used by the Bureau of the Census in its latest series of population projections, published in Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1130. The Bureau of the Census used a range of 1.91 to 2.58, with an 

intermediate assumption of 2.25.

Total fertility rates for 1995 and 1996 were estimated from provisional data published by the National 

Center for Health Statistics in Monthly Vital Statistics Reports, Volumes 44 and 45. Between 1997 and 

2021, the age-specific birth rates were projected separately for each cohort of women such that the completed cohort fertility rate would gradually approach the assumed ultimate total fertility rate. The 1996 
13

Trustees Report based the relative distribution of age-specified birth rates on the average historical age 

distribution attained from all available (42 years of data) prior completed cohort rates. For the 1997 

Trustees Report, the average historical age distribution was modified to include only the latest 31 historical completed cohort rates. This methodological change serves to make the relative age distribution for 

birth rates more similar to recent data. Table 4 gives the assumed age-specific birth rates by alternative for 

selected calendar years.

Table 4.—Central Birth Rates by Age, Calendar Year, and Alternative 

(Per thousand women)

Age of Calendar year

Mother 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

14 3.6 3.8 3.8 5.8 6.0 6.6 7.1 6.5 6.2 7.8 8.0 7.9 8.0 8.0 7.9

15 12.0 12.0 11.9 18.8 19.2 19.2 19.4 17.4 16.5 20.6 21.1 20.9 20.8 20.7 20.5

16 29.0 27.8 26.2 41.4 42.6 38.8 36.4 33.1 31.7 38.0 39.5 38.8 38.8 38.5 38.1

17 57.8 53.7 49.3 75.0 80.2 66.6 57.3 53.1 51.2 60.1 62.8 61.7 61.1 60.8 60.2

18 90.5 82.3 76.8 113.7 131.2 98.3 77.5 74.6 72.0 82.5 86.0 85.6 84.4 83.8 83.0

19 123.8 107.6 102.8 148.4 181.9 126.0 92.7 92.5 88.3 99.1 103.2 103.1 101.9 100.7 99.7

20 148.2 123.1 119.5 173.6 224.2 147.1 103.4 106.0 100.0 110.2 112.8 113.5 112.3 110.8 109.7

21 164.8 133.7 128.9 187.9 247.0 159.2 109.7 113.2 105.9 115.1 116.2 115.8 114.9 113.2 112.1

22 172.2 139.6 133.4 195.4 256.4 167.4 115.1 118.5 110.3 118.6 117.6 118.1 114.0 113.1 112.0

23 179.4 144.1 137.1 197.5 255.8 171.2 118.8 121.9 113.0 120.4 118.4 116.2 113.0 111.5 110.4

24 178.2 143.3 136.7 195.3 246.8 170.1 120.7 123.8 115.2 121.7 119.1 116.7 112.9 111.2 110.1

25 175.7 139.8 133.0 187.0 231.8 163.0 119.2 123.0 115.7 122.3 119.5 117.3 114.4 111.6 110.5

26 167.1 133.0 126.6 176.3 213.7 153.2 115.2 119.6 114.5 122.1 119.1 117.6 114.9 112.7 111.6

27 168.6 128.5 119.9 164.4 195.5 140.6 108.1 114.3 110.9 119.7 117.1 116.3 114.2 112.6 111.5

28 164.3 121.8 112.6 152.1 177.3 126.4 98.2 106.8 106.0 115.5 113.4 113.4 111.8 111.0 109.9

29 160.3 119.5 106.7 141.5 160.7 111.3 86.4 97.2 98.8 109.1 107.7 107.6 107.4 107.1 106.1

30 140.0 108.0 95.2 126.0 142.3 96.0 73.1 85.3 89.6 101.2 99.8 100.2 100.2 100.9 99.9

31 130.5 101.8 87.0 113.2 126.8 82.6 61.2 72.6 79.0 90.7 90.0 90.2 91.0 91.8 90.9

32 118.2 90.2 76.7 99.1 110.8 70.0 50.6 60.2 68.1 79.7 78.8 79.8 80.4 81.4 80.6

33 115.9 86.1 71.1 90.3 99.4 60.2 42.1 49.5 57.8 68.9 68.1 69.0 69.9 70.7 70.0

34 109.6 80.5 63.7 80.2 87.8 51.8 34.9 40.0 47.9 58.4 58.0 58.9 59.7 60.8 60.2

35 105.2 75.6 57.4 71.2 77.2 44.5 28.6 31.5 38.5 48.7 48.9 49.5 50.1 51.1 50.6

36 98.2 68.7 50.9 61.2 66.2 37.7 23.3 24.3 29.9 39.2 39.7 40.2 40.7 41.5 41.1

37 92.6 63.6 45.0 52.6 56.2 31.3 18.7 18.5 22.5 30.5 31.1 31.5 32.2 32.7 32.4

38 82.5 57.3 39.2 44.2 46.9 25.9 15.2 14.0 16.6 22.8 23.5 24.1 24.5 25.1 24.9

39 74.4 51.2 33.3 36.1 38.1 21.0 12.1 10.9 12.0 16.7 17.2 17.8 18.2 18.8 18.6

40 55.5 38.8 25.9 27.0 28.8 15.8 8.9 7.6 8.4 11.7 12.1 12.6 12.7 13.4 13.3

41 44.1 30.5 19.6 19.5 20.9 11.4 6.4 5.3 5.6 7.7 8.0 8.6 8.6 8.9 8.8

42 31.3 22.0 13.9 13.1 14.1 7.8 4.3 3.5 3.4 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.6

43 24.6 17.0 10.1 9.3 9.3 5.0 2.8 2.2 2.0 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.4

44 17.3 11.4 6.4 5.4 5.5 3.1 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.9

45 11.9 7.4 4.0 3.0 2.8 1.7 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9

46 7.9 4.5 2.4 1.6 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3

47 4.4 2.5 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

48 2.4 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

49 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14

Calendar year and Alternative

Age of Low Cost Intermediate High Cost

Mother 2000 2005 2010 2015 2021 2000 2005 2010 2015 2021 2000 2005 2010 2015 2021

14 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.4 6.9 6.4 5.9 5.8

15 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.5 23.0 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.3 19.5 18.5 17.5 16.5 15.8

16 38.6 39.1 39.6 40.1 40.7 37.6 37.1 36.6 36.1 35.5 36.6 35.1 33.2 31.6 30.1

17 61.2 62.2 63.2 64.2 65.4 59.7 59.2 58.7 58.2 57.6 57.7 55.2 52.5 49.8 47.2

18 84.5 86.0 87.5 89.0 90.8 82.0 81.0 80.0 79.0 77.8 79.5 76.0 72.4 68.6 65.0

19 101.2 102.7 104.4 106.4 108.8 98.7 97.7 96.7 95.7 94.5 95.3 91.2 86.7 82.2 77.6

20 111.7 113.7 115.7 117.7 120.1 108.2 106.7 105.2 103.8 102.4 105.0 100.5 95.9 90.9 85.5

21 114.1 116.1 118.1 120.1 122.6 110.6 109.1 107.6 106.1 104.6 107.2 102.7 98.0 93.0 87.3

22 114.0 116.0 118.0 120.0 122.5 110.5 109.0 107.5 106.0 104.4 107.1 102.6 98.1 93.1 87.3

23 112.4 114.4 116.4 118.4 120.9 108.9 107.5 106.0 104.5 102.9 105.7 101.2 96.7 92.1 86.3

24 112.1 114.1 116.1 118.1 120.6 108.7 107.2 106.1 104.6 103.0 105.6 101.1 96.6 92.1 86.4

25 112.5 114.5 116.5 118.5 120.9 109.2 107.7 106.4 104.9 103.2 106.1 101.6 97.1 92.6 87.0

26 113.6 115.6 117.6 119.6 122.0 110.4 108.9 107.4 105.9 104.1 107.3 102.8 98.3 93.8 88.1

27 113.5 115.5 117.5 119.5 121.9 110.4 108.9 107.4 105.9 104.1 107.3 102.8 98.3 93.8 88.4

28 111.9 113.9 115.9 117.9 120.3 108.9 107.4 106.2 105.2 103.4 106.0 101.5 97.0 92.5 87.1

29 108.0 110.0 112.0 114.0 116.4 105.1 103.7 102.6 101.6 100.4 102.5 98.1 93.9 89.9 84.7

30 101.6 103.2 105.2 107.2 109.6 98.9 97.9 96.9 95.9 94.7 96.6 92.7 88.7 84.7 79.9

31 92.4 93.9 95.4 96.9 98.7 90.4 89.4 88.4 87.4 86.2 87.9 84.5 81.0 77.5 73.3

32 82.1 83.6 85.1 86.6 88.4 80.1 79.4 78.4 77.4 76.2 78.1 75.3 72.0 69.0 65.4

33 71.0 72.0 73.0 74.1 75.4 69.5 68.9 67.9 66.9 65.7 68.0 65.6 62.6 60.1 57.1

34 61.2 62.2 63.2 64.2 65.4 59.7 59.2 58.7 58.2 57.6 58.2 56.2 53.8 51.3 48.3

35 51.6 52.6 53.6 54.6 55.8 50.1 49.6 49.1 48.6 48.0 49.1 47.6 45.6 43.6 41.2

36 41.6 42.1 42.6 43.1 43.7 40.6 40.1 39.6 39.1 38.5 39.6 38.1 36.6 35.1 33.3

37 32.9 33.4 33.9 34.4 35.0 32.1 32.0 31.6 31.1 30.5 31.4 30.4 29.4 28.0 26.8

38 25.4 25.9 26.4 26.9 27.5 24.9 24.9 24.8 24.3 23.7 23.9 23.1 22.1 21.1 19.9

39 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.6 21.2 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.1 17.6 17.1 16.6 16.0

40 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 12.8 12.3 11.8 11.3 10.7

41 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.3 7.9 7.5 7.0 6.4

42 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6

43 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4

44 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9

45 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9

46 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

47 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

48 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

49 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Table 4.—Central Birth Rates by Age, Calendar Year, and Alternative (Cont.)

(Per thousand women)
15

2. Mortality

Death rates (generally referred to as central death rates) are defined as the number of deaths during the 

year divided by the midyear population. These rates were calculated by sex on an age-specific basis for 

each year 1900 through 1994. To summarize the mortality experience of a single year and to control for 

changes in the age distribution of the population from year to year, age-adjusted death rates (as shown in 

Table 5) were calculated as a weighted average of the age-specific death rates. The weights used were the 

numbers of people in the corresponding age groups of the 1990 U.S. census resident population. Thus, if 

the age-adjusted death rate for a particular year and sex is multiplied by the 1990 U.S. census resident 

population, the result gives the number of deaths that would have occurred in 1990 for the U.S. census 

resident population if the age-specific death rates for that particular year and sex had been experienced. 

The age-adjusted death rate is, therefore, equivalent to the crude death rate that would have been experienced in the 1990 U.S. census resident population. Age-sex-adjusted death rates are often calculated 

when one is interested in summarizing death rates for both sexes combined. Age-sex-adjusted death rates 

(shown in Table 5) were calculated as a weighted average of the age-sex-specific death rates, where each 

weight was the number of people in the corresponding age and sex group of the 1990 U.S. census resident 

population.

The calculations of adjusted death rates for the 1997 Trustees Report used the 1990 U.S. resident census 

population as the standard population, the population providing the weights. The 1996 Trustees Report 

used the 1980 census resident population as the standard. As a result of the change in the standard population, from 1980 to 1990, the death rates differ from Actuarial Study 110 over the historical period as 

well as for the projected period. 

Table 5.—Age-Sex-Adjusted and Age-Adjusted, by Sex, Central Death Rates

 by Calendar Year and Alternative 

(Per hundred thousand)

Calendar

Year

Age-sexadjusted

Age-adjusted

Male Female

1900 2,463.7 2,592.4 2,361.1

1901 2,413.2 2,558.1 2,295.9

1902 2,244.4 2,406.6 2,118.1

1903 2,317.1 2,466.4 2,197.7

1904 2,436.6 2,604.7 2,303.7

1905 2,356.9 2,514.2 2,231.0

1906 2,336.7 2,509.5 2,192.9

1907 2,424.9 2,607.4 2,269.4

1908 2,232.8 2,381.0 2,107.6

1909 2,180.3 2,332.0 2,055.4

1910 2,266.1 2,422.3 2,134.0

1911 2,192.1 2,335.5 2,070.6

1912 2,153.6 2,307.1 2,023.6

1913 2,151.4 2,312.3 2,014.9

1914 2,099.0 2,251.8 1,971.3

1915 2,118.4 2,262.8 1,999.3

Calendar

Year

Age-sexadjusted

Age-adjusted

Male Female

1916 2,189.0 2,344.2 2,057.9

1917 2,197.3 2,366.0 2,055.7
16

1918 2,481.8 2,673.2 2,316.6

1919 1,998.1 2,094.6 1,921.1

1920 2,079.2 2,157.0 2,018.5

1921 1,888.0 1,966.3 1,824.0

1922 1,973.3 2,068.8 1,893.6

1923 2,059.5 2,160.6 1,973.6

1924 1,955.7 2,079.7 1,854.5

1925 1,982.5 2,107.8 1,880.8

1926 2,055.1 2,185.3 1,949.0

1927 1,901.4 2,041.6 1,790.2

1928 2,027.8 2,176.1 1,908.7

1929 1,987.7 2,142.7 1,864.0

1930 1,856.3 2,017.0 1,729.4

1931 1,805.6 1,974.4 1,674.9

1932 1,805.4 1,959.8 1,685.5

1933 1,760.0 1,929.5 1,629.0

1934 1,793.9 1,979.6 1,648.8

1935 1,762.4 1,950.3 1,615.8

1936 1,857.2 2,057.9 1,698.9

1937 1,779.7 1,985.6 1,618.5

1938 1,669.9 1,852.2 1,526.9

1939 1,668.7 1,854.3 1,523.6

1940 1,672.6 1,877.8 1,512.1

1941 1,599.2 1,815.2 1,432.7

1942 1,544.6 1,758.3 1,377.2

1943 1,603.8 1,824.6 1,432.0

1944 1,529.9 1,745.0 1,359.0

1945 1,488.6 1,716.2 1,307.4

1946 1,438.5 1,646.6 1,274.1

1947 1,432.3 1,655.6 1,258.6

1948 1,401.7 1,633.0 1,222.4

1949 1,360.5 1,592.2 1,180.7

1950 1,339.9 1,580.5 1,155.0

1951 1,328.4 1,570.1 1,140.3

1952 1,303.8 1,543.0 1,115.1

1953 1,294.1 1,541.2 1,100.2

1954 1,228.2 1,467.0 1,040.3

1955 1,243.0 1,488.6 1,050.3

1956 1,242.6 1,497.1 1,044.5

1957 1,263.6 1,525.8 1,059.9

1958 1,250.8 1,514.5 1,046.8

1959 1,227.3 1,493.5 1,021.6

1960 1,237.9 1,518.1 1,023.2

1961 1,207.3 1,485.2 995.6

1962 1,228.3 1,516.3 1,010.6

1963 1,247.5 1,552.4 1,018.7

1964 1,209.7 1,508.6 983.7

1965 1,210.8 1,522.9 977.0

Table 5.—Age-Sex-Adjusted and Age-Adjusted, by Sex, Central Death Rates

 by Calendar Year and Alternative (Cont.)

(Per hundred thousand)
17

Calendar

Year

Age-sexadjusted

Age-adjusted

Male Female

1966 1,214.1 1,532.2 975.3

1967 1,182.3 1,501.7 943.1

1968 1,202.1 1,545.4 947.9

1969 1,166.2 1,505.4 914.7

1970 1,138.4 1,476.0 889.1

1971 1,130.2 1,467.3 882.6

1972 1,126.1 1,470.1 873.6

1973 1,108.8 1,451.4 858.0

1974 1,063.3 1,391.4 822.9

1975 1,020.9 1,345.4 784.4

1976 1,010.1 1,331.7 777.0

1977 981.8 1,300.1 751.6

1978 976.3 1,291.1 748.8

1979 944.8 1,253.0 722.4

1980 961.1 1,270.2 739.2

1981 934.5 1,235.1 719.1

1982 906.4 1,196.3 698.9

1983 916.0 1,208.6 708.4

1984 909.2 1,197.0 705.4

1985 912.3 1,202.0 707.2

1986 904.8 1,189.0 702.9

1987 895.6 1,173.8 697.9

1988 906.0 1,190.9 705.8

1989 882.4 1,156.7 688.8

1990 865.9 1,137.0 674.9

1991 854.8 1,121.5 667.3

1992 843.6 1,107.1 659.3

1993 863.4 1,127.7 678.2

1994 852.2 1,108.6 672.5

1995 838.4 1,071.2 672.6

Low Cost Intermediate High Cost

Age-sexadjusted

Age-adjusted Age-sexadjusted

Age-adjusted Age-sexadjusted

Age-adjusted

Male Female Male Female Male Female

1996 825.3 1,062.6 661.4 832.0 1,077.2 660.3 835.7 1,086.5 658.3

1997 823.5 1,060.3 661.6 824.9 1,068.1 655.4 824.6 1,073.7 649.0

1998 822.0 1,058.3 662.0 817.8 1,059.0 650.6 813.9 1,061.2 640.1

1999 820.6 1,056.6 662.6 811.3 1,050.8 646.2 806.5 1,054.0 632.6

2000 819.4 1,055.0 663.3 804.7 1,042.0 642.0 798.4 1,045.3 625.2

2005 815.7 1,049.3 668.9 771.7 996.4 623.0 741.4 969.8 586.5

2010 811.3 1,042.9 671.5 746.7 962.1 608.0 687.5 894.1 553.3

2015 802.0 1,031.0 665.7 725.0 934.0 591.8 648.7 842.4 524.9

2020 791.5 1,017.7 657.5 704.0 907.2 575.1 615.7 800.4 498.1

2025 781.2 1,004.6 649.2 684.0 881.6 558.9 585.8 762.7 473.1

2030 771.2 992.0 641.3 665.0 857.3 543.4 557.9 727.4 449.8

2035 761.7 979.8 633.6 646.9 834.2 528.8 531.5 694.1 427.8

2040 752.4 968.1 626.2 629.7 812.2 514.9 506.6 662.4 407.1

2045 743.5 956.7 619.1 613.4 791.2 501.6 483.0 632.4 387.6

2050 734.8 945.6 612.1 597.8 771.2 489.0 460.7 604.0 369.3

Table 5.—Age-Sex-Adjusted and Age-Adjusted, by Sex, Central Death Rates

 by Calendar Year and Alternative (Cont.)

(Per hundred thousand)
18

Note: The age-adjusted central death rate is the weighted average of the age-specific central death rates for a particular sex and year. The 

weights are the number of people in the corresponding age groups of the 1990 U. S. Census population.

The age-sex-adjusted central death rate is the weighted average of the age-sex specific central death rates for a particular year. The 

weights are the number of people in the corresponding age and sex groups of the 1990 U. S. Census population.

An examination of the age-adjusted death rates since 1900 reveals several distinct periods of mortality 

reduction. During the period 1900 to 1936, annual mortality reduction averaged about 0.8 percent for 

males and 0.9 percent for females. Following this was a period of rapid reduction, 1936 to 1954, in which 

mortality decreased an average of 1.6 percent per year for males and 2.5 percent for females. The period 

1954 to 1968 saw an actual increase for males of 0.2 percent per year and a much slower reduction of 0.8 

percent per year for females. From 1968 through 1982 rapid reduction in mortality resumed, averaging 

1.8 percent for males and 2.2 percent for females, annually. From 1982 to 1994, slower reduction in mortality resumed, decreasing an average of 0.8 percent for males and 0.5 percent for females. These rates of 

reduction are shown in the following table by sex and age group.

Low Cost Intermediate High Cost

Age-sexadjusted

Age-adjusted Age-sexadjusted

Age-adjusted Age-sexadjusted

Age-adjusted

Male Female Male Female Male Female

2055 726.4 934.9 605.5 582.9 752.2 477.0 439.7 577.2 352.0

2060 718.3 924.6 599.0 568.7 734.0 465.5 419.9 551.8 335.8

2065 710.5 914.5 592.7 555.2 716.6 454.5 401.2 527.8 320.5

2070 702.9 904.8 586.7 542.2 700.0 444.0 383.6 505.1 306.1

2075 695.5 895.3 580.8 529.8 684.1 434.0 367.0 483.7 292.6

2080 688.3 886.1 575.1 518.0 668.9 424.4 351.3 463.4 279.8

Historical Average Annual Percentage Reductions in Age-Adjusted Central Death Rates

Age and Sex 1900-36 1936-54 1954-68 1968-82 1982-94 1900-94

 Male :

 0-14 2.91 4.75 1.66 4.39 2.60 3.26

 15-64 1.02 1.91 -.20 2.22 .61 1.14

 65-84 .20 1.15 -.13 1.47 1.21 .65

 85+ .22 1.21 -.89 1.56 -.34 .38

 65+ .20 1.16 -.33 1.49 .79 .58

 Total .78 1.60 -.21 1.78 .78 .94

Female :

 0-14 3.12 5.01 1.72 4.19 2.49 3.36

 15-64 1.19 3.62 .57 2.20 .70 1.66

 65-84 .36 2.06 1.07 2.01 .58 1.07

 85+ .23 1.21 .13 2.06 .09 .66

 65+ .32 1.82 .77 2.03 .42 .95

 Total .90 2.47 .77 2.15 .54 1.33

Table 5.—Age-Sex-Adjusted and Age-Adjusted, by Sex, Central Death Rates

 by Calendar Year and Alternative (Cont.)

(Per hundred thousand)
19

Past reduction in mortality has varied greatly by cause of death. Because it is expected that future reduction in mortality rates will also vary greatly by cause of death, death rates for the years 1968 through 1994 

were calculated and analyzed by age group and sex for ten groups of causes of death (based on the Ninth 

Revision of the International List of Diseases and Causes of Death code numbers). These groups of 

causes of death are as follows:

For the years 1968 through 1994, death rates for ages under 65 by age group, sex, and cause of death were 

calculated using the numbers of deaths as tabulated in Vital Statistics of the United States and using the 

latest census estimates of the resident population as published in the P-25 Series of Current Population 

Reports. For the years 1968 through 1978, an adjustment was made to the distribution of the numbers of 

deaths among the ten causes. This adjustment was needed in order to reflect the revision in the cause of 

death coding that occurred in 1979, thereby making the data for the years 1968 through 1978 more comparable with the coding used for the years 1979 and later. The adjustments were based on comparability 

ratios published by the National Center for Health Statistics in Monthly Vital Statistics Report, Volume 

28, Number 11.

For the ages 65 and over, records of the Medicare program were used to determine rates by age and sex. 

The numbers of deaths by cause in Vital Statistics of the United States were used to distribute the age-sex 

specific death rates for ages over 65 into age-sex-cause specific death rates. A detailed analysis of Medicare mortality statistics and a comparison to the statistics provided by the National Center for Health Statistics is contained in "Recent Trends in the Mortality of the Aged" by John C. Wilkin in the Transactions 

of the Society of Actuaries, Volume XXXIII, 1981.

Average annual reductions in mortality were determined for the period 1968 through 1994 by age group, 

sex, and cause of death. The values, shown in Table 6, were calculated as the complement of the exponential of the slope of the least-squares line through the logarithms of the death rates. The sharpest reductions were in the categories of Congenital Malformations and Diseases of Early Infancy and Vascular 

Disease, averaging 3.9 and 4.0 percent, respectively, per year. Averaging 2 to 2.5 percent average reduction per year, were Heart Diseases and Cirrhosis of the Liver. Violence averaged 1.8 percent reduction 

per year, Diabetes Mellitus .6 percent, and Digestive Diseases 1.0 percent reduction per year. The categories of Cancer and of Respiratory Disease and the residual group of other Causes (excluding AIDS) averaged an increase of about 0.5 to 1.3 percent per year.

I. Diseases of the Heart (390-398, 402, 404-429)

II. Malignant Neoplasms (140-208)

III. Vascular Diseases (400-401, 403, 430-459, 582-583, 587)

IV. Accidents, Suicide, and Homicide (E800-E989)

V. Diseases of the Respiratory System (460-519)

VI. Congenital Malformations, Diseases of Early 

Infancy

(740-779)

VII. Diseases of the Digestive System (520-570, 572-579)

VIII. Diabetes Mellitus (250)

IX. Cirrhosis of the Liver (571)

X. All Other Causes excluding AIDS (042-044)
20

 *Includes AIDS

**Excludes AIDS

Note: The average annual percentage reduction is the complement of the exponential of the slope of the least-squares line through the logarithms of the central death rates.

Table 6.—Average Annual Percentage Reductions in Central Death Rates During 1968 - 1994

 by Age Group, Sex, and Cause of Death

 Cause of death

Sex and 

age group Total*

Heart

disease Cancer

Vascular

disease Violence

Respiratory

 disease Infancy

Digestive

disease

Diabetes

mellitus

Cirrhosis

(liver) Other**

 Male:

 0 3.79 -1.01 3.26 .56 3.65 8.68 4.45 5.77 6.38 3.53 -1.00

 1-4 2.81 -.50 3.54 4.95 2.59 6.62 2.27 .87 5.32 6.68 2.94

 5-9 3.29 .58 3.62 6.19 3.48 4.58 3.21 3.27 4.37 8.26 2.78

10-14 2.20 .29 2.55 5.50 2.17 2.89 2.22 3.15 3.64 4.99 2.15

15-19 1.22 .01 2.59 6.09 .91 4.06 2.01 4.27 2.96 7.03 2.88

20-24 1.46 .51 2.51 5.59 1.30 4.17 1.89 5.16 2.40 6.33 3.76

25-29 .59 .78 1.86 4.72 1.12 2.85 2.47 4.18 2.05 4.57 -.20

30-34 -.10 1.85 1.21 4.26 .88 1.76 1.97 3.49 1.63 3.49 -2.47

35-39 .48 3.05 1.38 4.14 1.19 2.25 1.68 2.88 1.04 2.73 -2.07

40-44 1.42 3.50 1.33 4.09 1.65 2.77 1.94 2.78 .31 2.95 -.69

45-49 2.06 3.53 1.02 3.94 2.15 3.11 2.23 3.00 -.07 3.44 .37

50-54 2.10 3.34 .45 3.97 2.36 2.87 2.10 2.85 -.16 3.28 1.18

55-59 2.01 3.19 .12 4.14 2.61 2.15 1.64 2.87 -.14 2.83 1.29

60-64 1.85 3.03 -.17 4.19 2.67 1.54 .85 2.41 .05 2.57 .93

65-69 1.47 2.60 -.58 4.10 2.34 .65 -.12 2.01 .07 1.82 .15

70-74 1.40 2.47 -.64 4.23 1.97 .12 -1.07 1.69 .30 .87 -.58

75-79 1.14 2.16 -.85 4.03 1.48 -.69 -2.10 1.14 .31 -.06 -1.52

80-84 .93 1.85 -1.11 3.97 1.23 -1.46 -3.43 .59 .28 -.72 -2.32

85-89 .78 1.61 -1.40 3.88 1.23 -2.03 -2.98 -.18 .10 -.41 -2.81

90-94 .58 1.30 -1.87 3.77 1.23 -2.33 -4.44 -1.00 -.82 -.45 -3.15

Total 1.27 2.23 -.54 4.00 1.59 -.32 4.01 1.34 .16 2.24 -1.11

 Female:

 0 3.62 -1.01 3.65 1.02 3.56 9.12 4.08 5.88 9.96 5.11 -.68

 1-4 2.84 -.73 3.28 4.50 2.69 6.59 2.61 .50 2.84 6.18 3.06

 5-9 3.02 .73 3.34 5.75 2.97 5.51 3.45 2.97 5.76 6.87 2.66

10-14 2.11 .50 2.79 5.56 1.54 3.79 2.53 4.00 5.95 6.45 2.04

15-19 1.34 1.05 2.08 5.91 .62 3.38 2.48 4.70 4.28 8.62 2.52

20-24 1.65 .63 1.78 5.81 1.18 3.32 1.87 5.27 3.21 6.57 2.77

25-29 1.30 .76 1.51 5.28 .95 2.97 1.74 4.64 2.33 4.90 2.06

30-34 1.43 1.78 1.47 5.27 1.09 2.65 2.00 4.70 2.11 4.00 1.88

35-39 1.98 2.84 1.46 5.31 1.71 2.87 1.87 3.89 1.64 4.57 1.88

40-44 2.39 3.16 1.49 4.97 2.37 3.09 2.08 3.95 1.53 5.36 1.98

45-49 2.17 2.84 1.19 4.54 2.50 2.19 2.34 3.53 1.01 5.43 1.74

50-54 1.65 2.50 .54 4.08 2.68 .73 1.75 2.67 .50 4.51 1.33

55-59 1.26 2.38 .03 3.91 2.69 -.64 1.65 2.24 .61 3.51 .71

60-64 .95 2.41 -.64 3.95 2.57 -1.95 1.00 1.51 .69 1.99 .04

65-69 .65 2.24 -1.29 3.87 1.95 -3.17 .28 .89 .75 .32 -.93

70-74 1.01 2.52 -1.22 4.12 2.17 -3.36 -1.13 .67 1.32 -.75 -1.41

75-79 1.29 2.49 -.96 4.30 2.23 -3.03 -1.95 .40 1.59 -1.49 -2.27

80-84 1.43 2.29 -.69 4.26 2.68 -2.28 -3.11 -.04 1.40 -1.63 -3.12

85-89 1.32 1.90 -.49 4.01 2.98 -1.84 -3.84 -.55 .72 -1.28 -3.72

90-94 .94 1.33 -.84 3.63 3.25 -1.65 -4.52 -1.56 -.49 -.98 -4.20

Total 1.27 2.11 -.47 4.05 2.05 -1.60 3.73 .63 1.04 2.44 -1.42
21

Future reductions in mortality will depend upon such factors as the development and application of new 

diagnostic, surgical, and life-sustaining techniques, the presence of environmental pollutants, improvements in exercise and nutrition, the incidence of violence, the isolation and treatment of causes of disease, 

the emergence of new forms of disease, improvements in prenatal care, the prevalence of cigarette smoking, the misuse of drugs (including alcohol), the extent to which people assume responsibility for their 

own health, and changes in our conception of the value of life. After considering how these and other factors might affect mortality, we postulated three alternative sets of ultimate annual percentage reductions 

in death rates by sex, age group, and cause of death for the years after 2020. The age groups for which 

specific rates of reduction have been selected are: under age 15, 15-64, and 65-84, and 85 and older. 

These ultimate annual percentage reductions are as follows:

Assumed Ultimate Annual Percentage Reductions in Death Rates

 by Alternative, Sex, Age Group, and Causes

Cause of death

Alternative, sex, 

and age group

Heart

disease Cancer

Vascular

disease Violence

Respiratory

disease Infancy

Digestive disease

Diabetes

mellitus

Cirrhosis (liver) Other

Male Low Cost Alternative:

< 15 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.9 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.2

15-64 0.7 0.1 1.0 0.3 0.2 1.5 1.1 0.2 1.0 0.0

65-84 0.5 0.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.6 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0

85 + 0.5 0.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.6 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0

Female Low Cost Alternative : 

< 15 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.9 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.2

15-64 0.7 0.1 1.0 0.3 0.2 1.5 1.1 0.2 0.8 0.0

65-84 0.5 0.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.6 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0

85 + 0.5 0.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.6 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0

Male Intermediate Alternative :

< 15 0.6 2.0 0.6 0.9 2.4 2.2 1.6 1.8 1.4 0.5

15-64 1.5 0.3 1.8 0.5 0.3 1.1 1.6 0.3 1.5 0.3

65-84 1.2 0.2 1.7 0.6 0.2 1.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.2

85 + 1.1 0.2 1.7 0.6 0.2 1.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.2

Female Intermediate Alternative :

< 15 0.6 2.0 0.6 0.9 2.4 2.2 1.6 1.8 1.4 0.5

15-64 1.5 0.3 1.8 0.5 0.3 1.1 1.6 0.3 1.5 0.3

65-84 1.2 0.2 1.7 0.8 0.2 1.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.2

85 + 1.1 0.2 1.7 0.8 0.2 1.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.2

Male High Cost Alternative :

< 15 1.4 5.2 0.7 1.2 2.9 1.2 2.0 2.3 2.2 1.0

15-64 2.0 1.2 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.5 2.4 0.4 3.0 0.6

65-84 1.5 1.1 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.4

85 + 1.3 1.1 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.4

Female High Cost Alternative :

< 15 1.4 5.2 0.7 1.2 2.9 1.2 2.0 2.3 2.2 1.0

15-64 2.0 1.3 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.5 2.4 0.4 2.6 0.6

65-84 1.6 1.2 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.4

85 + 1.3 1.2 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.4
22

The annual percentage reductions in the table above are greatest for the high cost alternative and smallest 

for the low cost alternative, with the exception of the ultimate reductions assumed due to Congenital Malformations and Diseases of Early Infancy. For this cause-of-death group, the low cost alternative reductions are greatest and the high cost alternative reductions are smallest because most of the deaths due to 

this cause of death occur to those under 5 years of age. Thus, unlike the other causes of death, higher 

death rates for this cause of death would produce an unfavorable financial effect.

Due to the nature of AIDS, this disease was treated as a separate and special cause of death and death 

rates due to AIDS were projected by a different method. Although much has been learned about AIDS 

during the last few years, many uncertainties exist about the future course of this disease. For historical 

years beginning in 1981 through projected years ending with 1994, central death rates due to AIDS were 

projected based on numbers of deaths due to AIDS as estimated by the Center for Disease Control. 

Among the three alternatives, the death rates assumed for the high cost alternative were the greatest and 

those assumed for the low cost alternative were the smallest. Higher death rates for AIDS result in more 

cost to the OASDI program. Under the intermediate and high cost alternatives, the central death rates due 

to AIDS are assumed to reach their peak value around the year 2000. During the next ten years, death 

rates due to AIDS are assumed to decline rather rapidly as a result of changes in behavior. Thereafter, the 

rates are assumed to remain relatively constant throughout the remainder of the projection period. For the 

low cost alternative, the peak in central death rates due to AIDS is assumed to have been reached around 

1990, with the projected rates decreasing and stabilizing immediately.

Rapid reductions in infant mortality are expected to continue in the future. However, for the total group 

younger than 65, future reductions are projected to be relatively small compared with past reductions 

because very little additional reduction in death rates from infectious diseases (such as poliomyelitis and 

influenza) is possible and because only a small reduction in mortality from violent causes (accidents, suicide, and homicide) is expected. Reductions for the aged are expected to continue at a relatively rapid 

pace, as further advances are made against degenerative diseases (such as heart and vascular disease). 

The gap between male and female mortality is expected to stabilize as women become increasingly subject to many of the same environmental hazards and social pressures as men. Analysis of the period from 

1982 through 1994 shows that the female rate of reduction is less than the male rate of reduction. For 

time periods in this century prior to 1982, mortality reduction was generally greater for females than 

males.

After adjustment for changes in the age and sex distribution of the population, the intermediate alternative 

mortality is projected to decrease at an average rate of 0.56 percent per year during the period 1994 

through 2071, about half the average annual reduction observed during 1900 through 1994, but greater 

than the female rate of reduction for the 1982 through 1994 period. During the period 1994 through 2071, 

the low cost alternative mortality is projected to decrease at a rate about one-sixth the average rate 

observed during 1900 through 1994, while for the high cost alternative mortality, the projected rate of 

reduction is about the same as for 1900 through 1994.

The base year for the mortality projections is 1995. Death rates for ages under 65 in 1995 were estimated 

from provisional data published in Monthly Vital Statistics Reports, Volumes 44. However, instead of 

using these estimated provisional death rates as the starting point from which mortality projections are 

made, we use a set of mortality rates calculated to be consistent with the trend inherent in the last 12 years 

of available data, including the preliminary data, calendar years 1984 through 1995. 
23

For years after 1995, death rates were projected by age group, sex, and cause of death by applying annual 

percentage reductions (except for the cause of death category of AIDS) to the estimated or projected prior 

year death rates. The annual reductions that were applied to obtain the 1996 levels were 50 percent for 

the low cost alternative, 100 percent for the intermediate alternative, and 150 percent for the high cost 

alternative of the average annual reductions during 1968 through 1994 period. The annual reductions that 

were assumed to apply to obtain rates for 1997 through 2021 were calculated by a logarithmic formula 

designed to gradually transform the reductions applied to obtain the 1995 levels into the postulated ultimate annual reductions. The ultimate reductions were assumed to apply during the 2021 through 2080 

period. The average annual reductions for the "All Other" category for age 0 were calculated using the 

period 1974 through 1994, rather than 1968 through 1994 because a distinct shift occurred in 1974, making earlier data inappropriate for this category. Table 7 gives the resulting death rates by age group, sex, 

and alternative for selected years.
24

Table 7a.—Central Death Rates by Age Group and Sex for Selected Historical Calendar Years

(Per hundred thousand)

Sex and 

age group

Calendar year

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1985 1990 1995

 Male :

 0 17,989.7 14,704.2 10,375.0 7,713.0 6,178.9 3,731.9 3,075.2 2,393.4 1,418.3 1,220.4 1,072.3 836.3

 1-4 2,062.9 1,481.5 1,029.4 603.6 310.8 149.9 119.2 93.3 72.2 58.6 52.2 44.8

 5-9 471.5 359.4 313.3 209.5 123.0 70.4 56.0 49.8 35.2 28.5 25.6 22.4

10-14 291.9 246.6 245.0 169.8 114.0 70.5 54.5 51.2 38.4 35.1 31.4 31.2

15-19 471.5 387.9 411.4 292.4 190.3 141.7 129.1 156.6 141.8 113.4 128.2 121.5

20-24 725.0 592.8 549.1 412.2 271.1 194.2 178.8 222.5 202.8 161.7 166.3 156.7

25-29 770.4 641.5 587.2 454.7 306.7 197.6 174.8 200.7 194.5 168.0 185.8 173.6

30-34 893.6 771.5 707.9 526.9 372.1 236.5 201.4 228.7 193.9 192.6 222.7 230.8

35-39 1,010.8 909.2 777.2 645.4 485.7 334.7 289.6 315.1 243.3 237.0 278.9 291.9

40-44 1,143.4 1,118.7 878.9 861.3 695.6 529.7 461.0 485.6 362.4 331.7 340.3 377.0

45-49 1,391.7 1,386.7 1,096.9 1,152.6 1,014.0 839.0 761.1 755.7 586.1 514.7 488.5 488.9

50-54 1,793.5 1,706.2 1,463.4 1,606.5 1,510.3 1,314.4 1,247.0 1,173.8 944.1 842.1 753.1 733.9

55-59 2,473.4 2,450.1 2,092.1 2,221.4 2,187.5 1,981.1 1,847.1 1,852.5 1,462.3 1,356.4 1,210.0 1,099.3

60-64 3,401.8 3,448.5 2,912.6 3,221.5 3,112.1 2,897.6 2,859.5 2,770.3 2,219.0 2,086.9 1,902.9 1,776.2

65-69 4,957.2 4,926.3 4,493.1 4,670.0 4,528.9 4,090.6 4,134.3 4,013.3 3,465.4 3,199.2 2,987.8 2,726.3

70-74 7,434.5 7,444.0 6,940.6 6,907.2 6,771.9 6,028.7 5,924.5 5,802.5 5,131.4 4,872.9 4,369.3 3,960.5

75-79 10,949.3 11,005.3 10,487.9 10,318.0 10,324.6 8,965.8 8,554.0 8,441.8 7,590.3 7,349.1 6,732.7 6,082.4

80-84 17,009.9 16,730.4 16,179.6 15,445.8 15,596.8 13,064.1 13,219.3 12,403.6 11,173.4 10,974.6 10,295.6 9,594.9

85-89 24,363.9 23,177.2 22,713.3 21,304.8 21,805.4 19,274.1 18,686.1 18,128.1 16,535.7 16,164.3 15,459.3 15,145.1

90-94 35,496.3 33,767.3 33,091.5 31,039.4 31,768.7 28,080.9 27,224.2 25,730.5 23,743.7 23,364.7 23,193.2 23,030.6

 Female :

 0 14,580.2 11,897.6 8,077.1 6,081.3 4,771.4 2,858.2 2,331.4 1,852.7 1,133.7 950.9 847.3 685.4

 1-4 1,917.4 1,357.8 946.8 524.0 266.1 125.2 98.2 75.5 54.4 44.8 40.8 36.4

 5-9 460.8 335.7 278.0 170.1 94.1 51.9 41.3 34.3 25.7 21.4 18.5 17.1

10-14 309.0 237.4 214.9 135.9 85.3 44.8 32.3 29.4 22.9 20.6 20.0 19.1

15-19 462.2 349.8 387.7 264.7 153.7 77.1 53.6 61.2 53.2 46.2 46.7 44.9

20-24 698.7 515.6 609.5 377.2 209.9 100.9 69.6 74.5 61.8 52.5 51.4 51.3

25-29 780.3 582.6 675.5 422.8 246.8 123.6 89.6 87.0 67.7 60.2 64.2 64.6

30-34 862.1 668.7 758.4 466.4 302.8 162.8 122.9 117.2 83.7 79.2 84.1 87.9

35-39 931.9 736.1 777.5 549.2 385.4 233.9 180.7 184.0 123.4 110.7 114.1 127.6

40-44 1,032.0 881.1 828.3 693.3 522.3 351.6 281.1 275.8 199.9 173.6 162.1 174.5

45-49 1,239.8 1,060.7 1,021.9 908.2 713.2 522.0 424.0 422.1 322.7 287.8 266.4 258.9

50-54 1,634.7 1,407.2 1,349.1 1,247.1 1,026.2 769.4 638.4 616.9 499.7 468.0 430.9 411.8

55-59 2,201.6 1,993.9 1,888.2 1,754.1 1,470.2 1,127.2 930.7 904.1 749.2 728.3 682.8 653.1

60-64 3,047.9 2,861.4 2,673.3 2,584.8 2,177.7 1,739.8 1,494.6 1,307.3 1,138.5 1,125.4 1,070.7 1,046.6

65-69 4,405.0 4,334.4 4,121.9 3,829.2 3,366.4 2,573.0 2,251.9 1,914.7 1,733.1 1,699.1 1,652.7 1,621.0

70-74 6,790.9 6,669.7 6,394.4 5,884.9 5,403.9 4,289.7 3,633.6 3,130.6 2,650.5 2,608.7 2,459.6 2,393.4

75-79 9,952.8 10,011.3 9,832.8 9,055.3 8,595.6 6,972.1 6,012.9 5,159.7 4,242.0 4,108.0 3,889.1 3,862.9

80-84 15,817.4 15,438.7 15,167.1 13,871.9 13,494.5 10,726.6 10,381.7 8,589.5 7,098.4 6,716.7 6,334.5 6,311.8

85-89 22,102.7 21,659.8 21,207.7 19,248.2 19,573.8 16,551.4 16,055.7 13,782.4 11,753.3 11,264.3 10,543.3 10,873.8

90-94 33,862.0 33,183.4 32,490.8 29,488.8 29,987.6 25,357.3 24,597.8 20,929.0 18,683.7 18,115.7 17,463.0 18,062.6
25

Table 7b.—Central Death Rates by Age Group and Sex, Under the 1997 Trustees Report 

Low Cost Alternative for Calendar Years 2000-2080

(Per hundred thousand)

Sex and 

age group

Calendar year

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080

 Male Low Cost Alternative:

 0 785.2 718.8 658.9 602.3 550.7 465.6 400.7 350.8 312.1 281.9 258.1

 1-4 41.0 38.3 36.0 34.2 32.8 30.4 28.2 26.4 24.7 23.3 21.9

 5-9 19.7 18.1 16.8 16.0 15.4 14.4 13.5 12.7 11.9 11.2 10.6

10-14 28.3 26.8 25.4 24.3 23.5 22.0 20.6 19.4 18.3 17.2 16.2

15-19 122.1 118.7 115.7 113.3 111.4 108.1 104.9 101.8 98.9 96.0 93.2

20-24 148.3 142.8 138.1 134.7 132.4 128.4 124.6 120.9 117.4 114.0 110.7

25-29 148.7 144.7 141.0 138.2 136.1 132.3 128.7 125.2 121.9 118.6 115.6

30-34 190.5 191.2 191.1 189.1 186.7 182.3 178.1 174.1 170.3 166.6 163.1

35-39 238.0 235.8 233.3 229.9 226.6 220.7 215.1 209.8 204.8 200.1 195.6

40-44 304.8 293.4 283.7 277.1 272.3 263.6 255.6 248.0 240.8 234.2 227.9

45-49 419.2 397.6 379.6 368.2 360.7 347.9 335.9 324.7 314.2 304.3 295.1

50-54 642.9 611.9 585.8 568.8 557.2 537.0 518.1 500.4 483.8 468.3 453.8

55-59 1,023.8 980.2 943.4 919.1 901.4 869.5 839.5 811.5 785.2 760.6 737.4

60-64 1,677.8 1,620.1 1,571.1 1,536.7 1,508.8 1,457.0 1,408.5 1,363.0 1,320.3 1,280.3 1,242.6

65-69 2,715.0 2,661.1 2,617.4 2,586.2 2,559.5 2,509.4 2,461.8 2,416.8 2,374.1 2,333.6 2,295.2

70-74 3,947.8 3,885.2 3,834.7 3,793.8 3,754.6 3,678.9 3,607.3 3,539.5 3,475.3 3,414.5 3,356.9

75-79 6,172.5 6,156.2 6,141.3 6,096.0 6,034.3 5,909.3 5,791.1 5,679.3 5,573.5 5,473.5 5,378.7

80-84 9,872.1 9,990.5 10,070.9 10,017.3 9,914.1 9,702.0 9,501.5 9,312.1 9,133.0 8,963.5 8,803.3

85-89 15,618.7 15,989.9 16,242.9 16,177.5 16,006.3 15,650.3 15,314.0 14,996.2 14,695.7 14,411.6 14,142.9

90-94 24,067.8 24,913.9 25,490.8 25,419.7 25,140.9 24,556.0 24,003.3 23,481.1 22,987.4 22,520.5 22,078.9

 Female Low Cost Alternative:

 0 637.4 584.7 536.0 487.9 443.5 370.3 314.6 272.0 239.2 213.7 193.8

 1-4 33.1 30.9 29.0 27.5 26.4 24.3 22.5 21.0 19.7 18.5 17.4

 5-9 15.1 14.0 13.1 12.5 12.0 11.2 10.5 9.8 9.2 8.7 8.2

10-14 17.4 16.6 15.8 15.2 14.7 13.8 12.9 12.2 11.5 10.9 10.3

15-19 43.2 41.9 40.9 40.1 39.5 38.3 37.2 36.2 35.2 34.3 33.3

20-24 45.8 43.9 42.4 41.3 40.6 39.4 38.3 37.2 36.2 35.2 34.3

25-29 55.9 53.9 52.1 50.9 50.1 48.7 47.4 46.1 44.9 43.7 42.6

30-34 73.4 70.3 67.7 66.0 64.9 63.1 61.4 59.8 58.2 56.8 55.4

35-39 107.5 102.0 97.5 94.8 93.2 90.7 88.3 86.0 83.9 81.8 79.9

40-44 151.6 143.0 136.0 132.1 130.0 126.4 123.1 119.9 117.0 114.2 111.5

45-49 237.7 226.0 216.2 210.4 206.9 201.3 195.9 190.9 186.2 181.7 177.5

50-54 387.6 374.0 362.1 353.8 348.0 338.3 329.2 320.5 312.4 304.8 297.6

55-59 634.0 619.7 607.1 596.9 588.1 571.5 555.8 541.0 527.2 514.0 501.7

60-64 1,030.3 1,030.9 1,029.6 1,019.6 1,005.4 976.7 949.7 924.2 900.3 877.7 856.3

65-69 1,666.0 1,711.3 1,745.3 1,746.5 1,734.8 1,708.4 1,683.4 1,659.8 1,637.4 1,616.2 1,596.1

70-74 2,441.2 2,496.3 2,536.6 2,533.0 2,513.2 2,470.3 2,429.7 2,391.3 2,355.0 2,320.7 2,288.1

75-79 3,872.3 3,935.3 3,978.8 3,962.6 3,925.8 3,849.2 3,776.8 3,708.4 3,643.7 3,582.6 3,524.8

80-84 6,278.0 6,343.3 6,379.8 6,333.0 6,262.0 6,118.8 5,983.7 5,856.1 5,735.6 5,621.7 5,514.1

85-89 10,612.1 10,760.3 10,835.0 10,740.6 10,603.9 10,332.3 10,076.0 9,834.1 9,605.6 9,389.8 9,185.9

90-94 17,895.3 18,389.5 18,684.7 18,556.6 18,310.5 17,813.5 17,344.2 16,901.1 16,482.6 16,087.2 15,713.5
26

Table 7c.—Central Death Rates by Age Group and Sex, Under the 1997 Trustees Report 

Intermediate Alternative for Calendar Years 2000-2080

(Per hundred thousand)

Sex and 

age group

Calendar year

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080

 Male Intermediate Alternative:

 0 728.6 612.6 533.5 486.4 451.1 392.2 343.5 303.0 269.2 240.8 216.8

 1-4 39.8 34.5 30.9 28.8 27.3 24.6 22.3 20.3 18.5 16.9 15.5

 5-9 18.9 16.0 14.0 13.0 12.3 11.1 10.1 9.2 8.4 7.7 7.0

10-14 27.5 24.5 22.2 20.7 19.7 17.8 16.1 14.7 13.4 12.2 11.2

15-19 119.9 113.2 107.7 103.8 101.0 95.9 91.2 86.7 82.4 78.4 74.6

20-24 149.2 137.0 128.0 123.1 119.7 113.8 108.3 103.0 98.1 93.5 89.0

25-29 169.6 153.8 144.1 139.3 136.0 129.9 124.2 118.9 113.8 109.1 104.7

30-34 231.3 212.6 201.3 195.8 191.5 183.7 176.3 169.4 162.9 156.8 151.2

35-39 288.9 261.1 243.9 235.8 230.1 219.9 210.6 201.9 193.9 186.5 179.6

40-44 363.3 322.9 296.3 284.9 277.0 263.2 250.9 239.6 229.3 219.8 211.2

45-49 445.3 394.7 358.0 340.5 328.9 309.0 291.0 275.2 260.8 247.8 235.9

50-54 653.3 586.4 538.4 512.1 493.8 462.0 433.7 408.4 385.6 365.1 346.6

55-59 1,013.4 926.1 862.4 825.1 796.1 744.8 698.8 657.5 620.7 587.2 557.1

60-64 1,639.6 1,524.0 1,436.5 1,380.1 1,333.0 1,247.6 1,171.5 1,103.2 1,041.7 986.3 935.9

65-69 2,643.3 2,509.5 2,409.1 2,339.8 2,278.7 2,164.8 2,061.6 1,967.2 1,880.9 1,801.7 1,728.9

70-74 3,828.7 3,657.8 3,528.9 3,432.6 3,342.1 3,171.5 3,016.6 2,875.7 2,746.8 2,628.8 2,520.5

75-79 5,974.4 5,782.1 5,631.4 5,488.4 5,340.4 5,059.3 4,804.5 4,573.2 4,362.3 4,169.7 3,993.3

80-84 9,532.7 9,345.3 9,182.6 8,958.3 8,708.6 8,233.4 7,803.8 7,414.4 7,060.5 6,737.8 6,442.9

85-89 15,058.2 14,912.3 14,756.5 14,420.0 14,022.4 13,260.6 12,569.0 11,939.6 11,365.4 10,840.3 10,358.8

90-94 23,193.7 23,206.9 23,119.9 22,606.2 21,957.2 20,711.7 19,583.2 18,558.3 17,625.2 16,773.8 15,994.8

 Female Intermediate Alternative:

 0 595.3 501.4 435.4 395.3 365.1 314.7 273.3 239.1 210.7 187.1 167.3

 1-4 32.5 28.0 25.0 23.3 22.1 19.9 18.0 16.4 14.9 13.7 12.6

 5-9 14.9 12.7 11.2 10.4 9.8 8.9 8.1 7.4 6.7 6.2 5.7

10-14 16.9 15.3 14.0 13.1 12.4 11.3 10.2 9.3 8.5 7.8 7.2

15-19 42.3 39.9 38.0 36.7 35.7 34.0 32.3 30.7 29.2 27.9 26.5

20-24 47.1 42.8 39.8 38.3 37.2 35.4 33.7 32.1 30.6 29.2 27.9

25-29 60.8 54.9 51.1 49.1 47.8 45.5 43.4 41.4 39.6 37.9 36.3

30-34 83.1 74.0 67.8 65.1 63.4 60.5 57.8 55.3 53.0 50.8 48.8

35-39 114.6 101.5 92.3 88.1 85.7 81.5 77.8 74.3 71.2 68.2 65.5

40-44 152.7 135.1 122.7 116.9 113.5 107.7 102.5 97.7 93.3 89.2 85.5

45-49 232.2 209.5 192.7 183.9 178.3 168.8 160.1 152.4 145.2 138.6 132.6

50-54 378.6 352.6 332.0 318.5 308.7 291.9 276.7 262.9 250.3 238.7 228.1

55-59 621.9 593.5 570.7 553.3 537.4 507.9 481.2 457.0 434.9 414.7 396.2

60-64 1,003.6 978.4 957.3 933.4 907.1 856.6 811.0 769.7 732.1 697.7 666.2

65-69 1,613.0 1,606.9 1,600.5 1,575.1 1,541.0 1,473.9 1,412.3 1,355.7 1,303.6 1,255.4 1,210.6

70-74 2,347.7 2,317.7 2,294.7 2,252.0 2,199.6 2,097.4 2,004.3 1,919.0 1,840.8 1,768.8 1,702.4

75-79 3,710.3 3,630.2 3,570.0 3,490.7 3,400.9 3,228.8 3,072.7 2,930.7 2,801.1 2,682.5 2,573.6

80-84 6,002.8 5,829.0 5,692.6 5,539.0 5,377.6 5,073.0 4,798.3 4,550.1 4,325.1 4,120.6 3,934.2

85-89 10,154.3 9,892.3 9,665.4 9,386.5 9,097.2 8,554.1 8,064.0 7,620.5 7,218.2 6,852.5 6,519.1

90-94 17,186.8 17,011.1 16,788.7 16,319.5 15,787.8 14,785.7 13,883.2 13,068.7 12,332.1 11,664.3 11,057.4
27

Table 7d.—Central Death Rates by Age Group and Sex, Under the 1997 Trustees Report 

High Cost Alternative for Calendar Years 2000-2080

(Per hundred thousand)

Sex and 

age group

Calendar year

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080

 Male High Cost Alternative:

 0 697.1 538.2 452.3 418.5 396.0 356.3 320.2 287.6 258.6 232.7 209.6

 1-4 39.0 31.1 25.8 23.5 22.0 19.3 17.0 15.1 13.4 11.9 10.6

 5-9 18.8 15.0 11.7 10.2 9.5 8.3 7.3 6.4 5.7 5.1 4.6

10-14 27.1 23.1 19.7 17.5 16.3 14.2 12.5 11.0 9.8 8.7 7.8

15-19 118.1 108.4 99.9 93.8 89.0 80.5 72.9 66.1 59.9 54.3 49.2

20-24 151.5 131.8 115.4 107.7 102.5 93.4 85.1 77.4 70.4 64.2 58.5

25-29 197.7 165.7 134.5 125.0 121.0 113.3 105.4 97.8 90.7 84.3 78.5

30-34 288.9 251.6 195.7 177.3 171.5 163.1 153.3 143.8 134.8 126.5 119.0

35-39 363.4 315.1 241.4 212.8 203.3 192.4 181.2 169.7 159.2 149.7 141.0

40-44 469.1 417.2 315.8 284.0 279.5 282.2 279.7 270.9 261.2 250.9 241.2

45-49 505.3 465.1 373.9 322.6 303.5 288.5 272.8 257.5 241.5 226.9 213.5

50-54 685.8 601.3 517.4 464.2 429.0 384.1 347.3 314.3 285.1 259.1 236.5

55-59 1,027.8 917.1 809.3 742.8 690.7 608.6 541.4 482.8 432.2 387.8 349.3

60-64 1,631.0 1,479.5 1,339.6 1,241.0 1,160.5 1,023.3 907.2 806.8 719.6 643.7 577.7

65-69 2,602.9 2,408.9 2,245.5 2,120.1 2,008.4 1,808.7 1,633.2 1,476.7 1,337.1 1,213.2 1,102.5

70-74 3,732.7 3,475.6 3,275.0 3,111.6 2,953.4 2,663.7 2,408.0 2,181.2 1,979.1 1,799.0 1,638.7

75-79 5,795.9 5,453.4 5,187.3 4,944.6 4,702.1 4,250.9 3,851.5 3,497.6 3,182.9 2,902.4 2,652.5

80-84 9,213.7 8,761.1 8,395.6 8,016.5 7,629.4 6,911.2 6,275.0 5,711.2 5,210.3 4,764.1 4,366.1

85-89 14,523.1 13,927.8 13,438.2 12,880.7 12,299.3 11,213.8 10,244.8 9,378.8 8,603.5 7,907.9 7,282.6

90-94 22,354.0 21,635.4 20,993.4 20,143.1 19,240.6 17,557.5 16,056.7 14,715.9 13,515.8 12,439.3 11,471.9

 Female High Cost Alternative:

 0 577.0 443.6 369.2 341.2 323.2 291.2 262.0 235.5 211.9 190.8 172.0

 1-4 32.1 25.3 20.9 18.9 17.7 15.5 13.7 12.2 10.8 9.7 8.7

 5-9 15.4 12.7 9.7 8.5 7.9 7.0 6.2 5.5 5.0 4.6 4.1

10-14 17.0 15.1 13.0 11.5 10.6 9.3 8.2 7.2 6.5 5.8 5.2

15-19 41.5 38.3 35.6 33.6 31.9 28.9 26.3 23.9 21.7 19.7 17.9

20-24 49.7 42.6 36.3 34.0 32.6 30.1 27.7 25.5 23.4 21.6 19.9

25-29 68.4 58.5 47.8 44.0 42.3 39.5 36.5 33.7 31.2 28.9 26.9

30-34 99.3 84.4 65.1 59.2 57.4 54.7 51.4 48.2 45.0 42.2 39.6

35-39 130.1 115.0 90.2 79.4 75.6 70.9 66.2 61.5 57.1 53.2 49.6

40-44 162.0 142.1 117.7 104.2 97.8 90.1 82.9 76.1 69.9 64.4 59.6

45-49 231.7 204.3 177.6 161.1 150.0 134.1 120.4 108.3 97.6 88.2 79.9

50-54 373.3 338.8 308.8 287.0 268.7 237.3 210.8 187.6 167.4 149.7 134.3

55-59 613.8 574.5 538.7 506.1 475.2 420.0 372.4 331.1 295.2 263.9 236.5

60-64 980.7 934.7 890.6 841.3 790.8 699.4 620.4 551.9 492.5 440.6 395.4

65-69 1,564.3 1,512.9 1,464.7 1,399.0 1,327.5 1,194.8 1,077.7 974.0 882.1 800.5 728.1

70-74 2,260.1 2,157.3 2,076.5 1,982.9 1,883.1 1,697.5 1,533.9 1,389.3 1,261.1 1,147.4 1,046.4

75-79 3,558.0 3,357.7 3,212.5 3,065.7 2,913.5 2,631.4 2,382.7 2,163.2 1,969.0 1,796.8 1,643.7

80-84 5,742.8 5,371.4 5,106.6 4,862.4 4,619.4 4,172.4 3,779.9 3,434.3 3,129.4 2,859.7 2,620.5

85-89 9,720.6 9,116.8 8,678.6 8,284.5 7,899.5 7,189.4 6,558.9 5,997.8 5,497.5 5,050.5 4,650.2

90-94 16,509.5 15,760.0 15,145.2 14,471.9 13,795.8 12,549.7 11,444.7 10,462.6 9,588.0 8,807.3 8,108.8
28

A complete projection of age-sex-specific death rates was not done for each marital status. However, historical data indicate that the differential in mortality by marital status is significant. To reflect this, future 

relative differences in death rates by marital status were projected to be the same as for calendar years 

1980 and 1981. Death rates for this period are shown in Table 8. These rates were calculated using 

deaths as tabulated from the 1980 and 1981 Mortality Cause-of-Death Summary Public Use Data Tapes, 

available from the National Center for Health Statistics, and population distributions as published in Current Population Reports, Series P-20 and P-25, by the Bureau of the Census.

Table 8.—Central Death Rates by Age Group, Sex, and Marital Status

Based on 1980-81 Data

(Per hundred thousand)

Sex and age group Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

Male :

15-19 135.9 135.1 161.0 933.0 400.0

20-24 193.9 207.3 150.4 850.0 371.2

25-29 192.5 255.3 140.3 839.7 392.0

30-34 192.1 314.5 144.4 906.8 400.0

35-39 241.8 504.8 189.2 950.3 482.4

40-44 357.6 649.2 296.2 950.0 669.6

45-49 581.0 1,065.3 489.8 1,089.2 1,154.3

50-54 932.8 1,742.0 799.0 1,550.3 1,838.4

55-59 1,444.5 2,281.5 1,281.0 2,167.4 2,620.2

60-64 2,195.9 3,092.3 1,992.2 3,157.5 3,711.0

65-69 3,338.9 4,403.8 3,051.7 4,832.4 5,119.9

70-74 4,991.0 6,604.6 4,558.5 6,814.8 7,183.3

75-79 7,323.9 10,983.0 6,584.3 9,300.3 11,142.3

80-84 11,027.0 17,734.8 9,494.6 14,457.8 15,794.4

85-89 16,433.6 25,801.3 14,286.5 18,713.3 19,451.3

90-94 21,981.3 33,306.1 19,597.9 23,003.5 21,345.4

Female :

15-19 51.8 51.6 51.0 270.0 75.0

20-24 60.3 69.0 45.4 220.7 90.0

25-29 67.5 99.9 51.7 228.6 107.1

30-34 82.6 154.7 66.1 225.0 123.8

35-39 122.4 239.0 101.9 255.6 184.9

40-44 195.3 355.4 167.2 334.6 298.6

45-49 319.0 486.2 279.2 504.4 462.4

50-54 496.5 691.7 439.6 718.7 672.7

55-59 746.3 1,048.6 663.7 934.3 1,000.9

60-64 1,131.5 1,500.5 984.8 1,401.2 1,460.4

65-69 1,705.2 2,012.4 1,495.4 1,916.3 2,273.1

70-74 2,621.7 3,036.3 2,262.6 2,839.7 3,473.6

75-79 4,132.5 4,760.3 3,568.6 4,285.0 5,676.3

80-84 7,095.9 8,016.9 5,623.8 7,383.3 9,340.8

85-89 11,797.1 13,948.8 7,435.8 12,498.2 12,588.1

90-94 17,983.4 22,159.2 12,717.5 18,919.4 15,519.2
29

Table 9 gives the resulting life expectancies at birth and age 65 for males and females respectively, for 

historical years and by alternative for selected future years. Life expectancy for any year is the number of 

years of life remaining for a person who is assumed to experience the death rates by age observed in or 

assumed for the selected year. Thus, the life expectancies at birth and at age 65 shown in Table 9 are summary statistics of the overall mortality for the applicable calendar year.

Table 9.—Life Expectancy at Birth and Age 65 by Sex, Calendar Year, and Alternative 

(In years)

Calendar 

Year

At Birth At age 65

Male Female Male Female

1900 46.41 48.96 11.35 12.01

1901 47.87 50.86 11.33 11.99

1902 49.02 52.08 11.71 12.61

1903 49.20 52.12 11.43 12.22

1904 48.08 51.10 11.09 11.87

1905 48.73 51.88 11.35 12.05

1906 48.27 51.96 11.44 12.22

1907 48.29 52.22 11.01 11.79

1908 50.22 53.59 11.61 12.32

1909 51.12 54.46 11.60 12.36

1910 50.08 53.58 11.38 12.10

1911 51.80 55.05 11.47 12.19

1912 52.34 55.87 11.49 12.26

1913 51.72 55.45 11.55 12.37

1914 52.87 56.33 11.59 12.44

1915 53.51 56.79 11.44 12.16

1916 52.42 55.98 11.26 12.03

1917 52.18 55.91 11.22 12.06

1918 45.34 49.08 11.63 12.48

1919 54.19 56.45 12.27 12.85

1920 54.51 56.27 11.81 12.34

1921 57.25 59.26 12.24 12.82

1922 57.02 59.33 11.76 12.45

1923 56.32 58.74 11.54 12.20

1924 57.15 59.91 11.75 12.65

1925 57.23 59.93 11.65 12.52

1926 56.57 59.33 11.37 12.23

1927 57.94 60.86 11.75 12.73

1928 56.78 59.82 11.33 12.29

1929 56.99 60.16 11.42 12.41

1930 57.96 61.31 11.83 12.91

1931 58.57 62.02 11.98 13.12

1932 59.44 62.59 11.92 12.95

1933 59.58 63.03 12.02 13.18

1934 58.85 62.68 11.88 13.13

1935 59.42 63.32 11.93 13.21

1936 58.75 62.85 11.56 12.81
30

Calendar 

Year

At Birth At age 65

Male Female Male Female

1937 59.36 63.58 11.77 13.14

1938 60.81 64.74 12.11 13.45

1939 61.44 65.41 12.04 13.40

1940 61.43 65.74 11.92 13.42

1941 61.90 66.46 12.17 13.81

1942 62.58 67.36 12.39 14.05

1943 62.25 67.10 12.11 13.72

1944 62.68 67.82 12.46 14.10

1945 62.87 68.44 12.63 14.38

1946 64.25 69.21 12.86 14.59

1947 64.57 69.68 12.64 14.52

1948 64.84 70.16 12.71 14.72

1949 65.26 70.66 12.82 14.93

1950 65.63 71.13 12.81 15.06

1951 65.66 71.36 12.83 15.15

1952 65.78 71.62 12.97 15.31

1953 65.98 71.98 12.93 15.34

1954 66.74 72.75 13.22 15.75

1955 66.72 72.81 13.08 15.64

1956 66.73 72.94 13.04 15.68

1957 66.47 72.73 12.88 15.60

1958 66.64 72.92 12.93 15.69

1959 66.80 73.24 13.06 15.88

1960 66.66 73.24 12.91 15.89

1961 67.07 73.63 13.08 16.11

1962 66.89 73.50 12.93 16.02

1963 66.64 73.42 12.75 15.99

1964 66.84 73.74 13.00 16.29

1965 66.79 73.84 12.92 16.34

1966 66.69 73.90 12.86 16.32

1967 66.95 74.29 13.01 16.58

1968 66.61 74.21 12.80 16.60

1969 66.88 74.59 13.02 16.90

1970 67.15 74.86 13.13 17.11

1971 67.40 75.06 13.13 17.14

1972 67.42 75.22 13.09 17.18

1973 67.64 75.47 13.19 17.35

1974 68.27 76.02 13.48 17.66

1975 68.74 76.55 13.70 18.02

1976 69.08 76.77 13.75 18.08

1977 69.40 77.16 13.91 18.33

1978 69.58 77.25 13.95 18.33

1979 69.96 77.71 14.18 18.60

1980 69.94 77.52 14.04 18.35

Table 9.—Life Expectancy at Birth and Age 65 by Sex, Calendar Year, and Alternative (Cont.)

(In years)
31

Note: The life expectancy is the average number of years of life remaining to a person if he were to experience the age-specific mortality 

rates for the tabulated year throughout the remainder of his life.

Calendar 

Year

At Birth At age 65

Male Female Male Female

1981 70.37 77.85 14.24 18.58

1982 70.83 78.20 14.45 18.80

1983 70.92 78.12 14.31 18.63

1984 71.08 78.20 14.41 18.66

1985 71.06 78.22 14.39 18.62

1986 71.12 78.30 14.52 18.66

1987 71.30 78.39 14.64 18.73

1988 71.24 78.32 14.56 18.66

1989 71.54 78.59 14.84 18.87

1990 71.77 78.86 14.98 19.02

1991 71.94 78.99 15.12 19.13

1992 72.17 79.16 15.21 19.20

1993 71.98 78.89 15.08 18.96

1994 72.19 79.00 15.28 19.03

1995 72.58 79.04 15.61 19.04

Low Cost Alternative Intermediate Alternative High Cost Alternative

At Birth At age 65 At Birth At age 65 At Birth At age 65

Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female

1996 73.02 79.28 15.49 19.10 72.61 79.25 15.52 19.17 72.32 79.24 15.56 19.23

1997 73.09 79.30 15.50 19.08 72.75 79.36 15.59 19.21 72.48 79.42 15.67 19.34

1998 73.16 79.32 15.50 19.06 72.90 79.46 15.65 19.25 72.64 79.59 15.78 19.45

1999 73.22 79.33 15.51 19.04 73.04 79.56 15.70 19.29 72.68 79.73 15.87 19.55

2000 73.28 79.34 15.52 19.01 73.19 79.66 15.76 19.33 72.77 79.87 15.97 19.65

2005 73.56 79.37 15.54 18.86 74.06 80.13 16.01 19.46 74.06 80.73 16.44 20.06

2010 73.81 79.42 15.56 18.76 74.70 80.49 16.22 19.58 75.48 81.51 16.85 20.40

2015 74.04 79.56 15.62 18.79 75.12 80.82 16.42 19.77 76.34 82.12 17.23 20.78

2020 74.24 79.73 15.70 18.87 75.49 81.14 16.63 19.99 76.97 82.70 17.63 21.20

2025 74.43 79.89 15.78 18.95 75.84 81.46 16.84 20.21 77.53 83.25 18.03 21.61

2030 74.62 80.04 15.86 19.03 76.19 81.77 17.05 20.44 78.08 83.80 18.43 22.02

2035 74.79 80.19 15.93 19.11 76.52 82.07 17.25 20.66 78.62 84.34 18.82 22.43

2040 74.96 80.33 16.01 19.19 76.85 82.37 17.45 20.87 79.17 84.86 19.22 22.84

2045 75.13 80.46 16.08 19.27 77.17 82.65 17.65 21.09 79.72 85.39 19.61 23.24

2050 75.29 80.60 16.16 19.35 77.48 82.94 17.85 21.30 80.25 85.90 20.00 23.64

2055 75.45 80.73 16.23 19.43 77.78 83.21 18.04 21.50 80.79 86.40 20.39 24.04

2060 75.60 80.85 16.30 19.50 78.07 83.48 18.23 21.71 81.31 86.90 20.78 24.43

2065 75.74 80.97 16.37 19.58 78.36 83.75 18.42 21.91 81.83 87.39 21.17 24.82

2070 75.89 81.09 16.44 19.65 78.64 84.01 18.61 22.11 82.35 87.87 21.56 25.21

2075 76.02 81.20 16.51 19.72 78.92 84.26 18.79 22.31 82.85 88.34 21.94 25.59

2080 76.16 81.32 16.57 19.79 79.19 84.51 18.97 22.51 83.35 88.80 22.32 25.97

Table 9.—Life Expectancy at Birth and Age 65 by Sex, Calendar Year, and Alternative (Cont.)

(In years)
32

Rapid gains in life expectancy at birth occurred from 1900 through the mid-1950's for both males and 

females. From the mid-1950's through the late 1960's, male life expectancy at birth remained level, while 

female life expectancy at birth increased moderately. During the 1970's rapid gains resulted for both 

males and females. Through the 1980's until the present, life expectancy at birth has been increasing less 

rapidly. During this century life expectancy at birth for males increased 25.8 years from 46.4 in 1900 to 

72.2 years in 1994. During the same period, life expectancy at birth for females increased 30.0 years 

from 49.0 to 79.0 years. Thus the difference in male and female life expectancies, the sex gap, at birth 

has increased from 2.6 years in 1900 to 6.8 years in 1994. The sex gap in life expectancy at birth reached 

peaked in calendar year 1970, at 7.7 years. The sex gap stabilized during the 1970's and has decreased 

slightly since 1979. Figure 2 is a graph of the past and projected life expectancies at birth of males and 

females from 1900 to 2080, for historical years and projected for the intermediate assumption.

 Figure 2.—Male and Female Life Expectancy

(in years) 1900-2080,

Actual and Projected Intermediate Alternative

Calendar Year

Under all three alternatives, the life expectancy at birth is projected to increase. For males, the life expectancy at birth increases from 72.2 years in 1994 to 76.2 years, 79.2 years, and 83.4 years in 2080 under the 

low cost, intermediate and high cost alternatives, respectively. This represents an increase ranging from 

4.0 years to 11.2 years. For females the increase ranges from 2.3 years to 9.8 years. The female life 

expectancy is projected to increase from 79.0 years in 1994, to 81.3 years, 84.5 years, and 88.8 years in 

2080 under the low cost, intermediate and high cost alternatives, respectively. The sex gap at birth is projected to decrease from 6.8 years in 1994 to 5.2 years in 2080 under the low cost alternative, to 5.3 years 

under the intermediate alternative, and 5.4 years under the high cost alternative.

40

50

60

70

80

90

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

Female

Male
33

Life expectancy at age 65 for males increased from 11.3 years in 1900 to 15.3 years in 1994, while life 

expectancy at age 65 for females increased from 12.0 years to 19.0 years. The life expectancy for males at 

age 65 is projected to increase from 15.3 years in 1994 to 16.6 years, 19.0 years, and 22.3 years in 2080 

under the low cost, intermediate and high cost alternatives, respectively. This represents an increase ranging from 1.3 years to 7.0 years. For females the increase from 1994 through 2080 ranges from 0.8 years 

to 7.0 years. The female age 65 life expectancy is projected to increase from 19.0 years in 1994 to 19.8 

years, 22.5 years, and 26.0 years in 2080 under the low cost, intermediate, and high cost alternatives, 

respectively. The sex gap in life expectancy at age 65 increased from .7 years in 1900 to 4.4 years in 

1979. Since then, this gap has decreased slightly to 3.7 years in 1994 and, in 2080, is projected to be 3.2 

under the low cost alternative, 3.5 under the intermediate alternative, and 3.7 under the high cost alternative.

3. Net Immigration

Immigration was once a very important element in the growth of the United States population. For each 

year 1870 through 1930, the population averaged about 13 percent foreign born. Figures published by the 

Bureau of the Census in Current Population Reports in The Foreign-Born Population: 1996, 

No. PC20-494, March 1997, indicate the percentage of foreign born declined to a low of about 5 percent 

in the 1970 Census, rose to about 8 percent in the 1990 Census and is currently estimated to be just over 9 

percent.

Legal immigration averaged nearly one million per year from 1904 through 1914. Immigration decreased 

greatly during World War I and following the adoption of quotas based on national origin in 1921. The 

economic depression in the 1930's caused an additional but temporary decrease which resulted in more 

emigration than immigration. Annual legal immigration increased after World War II to around 300,000 

persons per year and stayed at that level through the 1950's and into the 1960's.

With the Immigration Act of 1965 and other related changes, annual legal immigration increased to about 

400,000 and remained fairly stable until 1977. For the years 1977 through 1991, legal immigration 

(excluding aliens admitted under the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986) averaged approximately 580,000 per year. This increase was due to the increase in numbers of relatives admitted and to 

the large numbers of refugees and political asylees that were admitted based on specific legislation during 

this period.

The Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 (IRCA) permitted aliens who could provide evidence 

that they had been residing in the United States illegally since 1982, or since 1986 for certain agricultural 

workers, to apply directly for permanent residency. 2.7 million persons were legalized during 1989 

through 1993 under this legislation. These new immigrants had previously been included in the population as other-than-legal aliens.

For the years 1989 through 1991, a previously unused provision of the Immigration Act of 1965 was 

implemented to issue visas over and above the 270,000 numerical limit to persons in countries adversely 

impacted and/or under represented by the Immigration Act of 1965. Most of the additional visas have 

gone to natives of Ireland, Canada, Poland, and Indonesia. In 1989, 15,000 such visas were issued with 

an additional 25,000 in 1990 and 40,000 in 1991.
34

The historical numbers of immigrants in Tables 10 and 11 are from the 1995 Statistical Yearbook of the 

Immigration and Naturalization Service.

The Immigration Act of 1990, which took effect in fiscal year 1992, restructured the immigration categories and substantially increased the number of immigrants who may legally enter the United States each 

year. The 1990 law did away with the old numerically limited and immediate-relative categories and 

replaces them with family-sponsored preference, employment-based preference, and diversity categories 

for immigration. A cap of 675,000 immigrants per year was set for 1995 and later. This cap is referred to 

as "pierceable" because unused visas from prior years and other specially legislated immigrants are not 

included in these ceilings. The maximum number of refugees, which is set annually, was 112,000 for 

1995. The following table gives the maximums for both the 1965 Act and the 1990 Act, using the categories created under the 1990 Act.

* Refugee numbers are set annually. The numbers shown here are averages of available data years.

Table 10.—Legal Immigrants Admitted to the United States, 1901-1995 

(in thousands)

Fiscal Year Total Fiscal Year Total Fiscal Year Total Fiscal Year Total Fiscal Year Total

1901 488 1921 805 1941 52 1961 271 1980 531

1902 649 1922 310 1942 29 1962 284 1981 597

1903 857 1923 523 1943 24 1963 306 1982 594

1904 813 1924 707 1944 29 1964 292 1983 560

1905 1,026 1925 294 1945 38 1965 297 1984 544

1906 1,101 1926 304 1946 109 1966 323 1985 570

1907 1,285 1927 335 1947 147 1967 362 1986 602

1908 783 1928 307 1948 171 1968 454 1987 602

1909 752 1929 280 1949 188 1969 359 1988 643

1910 1,042 1930 242 1950 249 1970 373 1989 1,091

1911 879 1931 97 1951 206 1971 370 1990 1,536

1912 838 1932 36 1952 266 1972 385 1991 1,827

1913 1,198 1933 23 1953 170 1973 400 1992 974

1914 1,218 1934 29 1954 208 1974 395 1993 904

1915 327 1935 35 1955 238 1975 386 1994 804

1916 299 1936 36 1956 322 1976 399 1995 720

1917 295 1937 50 1957 327 1976TQ 104

1918 111 1938 68 1958 253 1977 462

1919 141 1939 83 1959 261 1978 601

1920 430 1940 71 1950 265 1979 460

Legal Immigration Limits

1965 Act

1990 Act

1992-1994 1995 and later

Flexible Cap 500,000 700,000 675,000

 Family Preference 440,000 520,000 480,000

 Immediate Relatives 225,000 239,000 254,000

 Family Sponsored 215,000 226,000 226,000

 IRCA Families 55,000

 Employment Based 60,000 140,000 140,000

 Diversity Immigrants 40,000 55,000

Separately Set Limits

 Refugees* 95,000 130,000 120,000

 Asylees 5,000 10,000 10,000
35

The historical numbers of immigrants, by the 1990 Act's categories, are shown in Table 11.

1

 This category includes those aliens admitted under the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986.

2

 Comprehensive immigration legislation increased total immigration under an overall flexible cap of 675,000 immigrants beginning in fiscal 

year 1995, preceded by a 700,000 level during fiscal years 1992 through 1995; created separate admission categories for family-sponsored, 

employment-based, and diversity immigrants.

3

 Includes 52,000 IRCA families and 34,000 immigrants admitted under the diversity cap for 1992, which are included in the overall flexible 

cap.

Other factors affecting the level of legal immigration include but are not limited to: application processing 

backlogs, shifting of responsibilities from Department of State to the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS), economic changes in the United Sates and abroad and anti-immigrant sentiment in the US. 

These factors are having a greater impact than expected on the numbers of immigrants, causing the numbers to be lower than expected for fiscal year 1995. The lower immigrant numbers are expected to be 

temporary. The projection of legal immigrants for Alternative II, therefore, drops below 800,000 for 

years 1995 through 1999, rising to an ultimate rate of 800,000 per year for years 2000 and later.

Statistics on emigration are sparse and largely estimated (see, "Foreign-Born Emigration From the United 

States: 1960 to 1970" by Robert Warren and Jennifer Peck in Demography, February 1980). However, 

research done by the Immigration and Naturalization Service and other experts estimates emigration to be 

in the range of 20-40 percent of legal immigration. Emigration from the Social Security Area is expected 

to be less than emigration from the United States, especially at the older ages, primarily because individuals who leave the United States having achieved fully insured status are still eligible to receive OASDI 

benefits and thus are still considered to be in the Social Security Area. In the 1996 Trustees Report, an 

emigration/immigration ratio of 25 percent was used for all three alternatives. For the 1997 Trustees 

Report we are varying our emigration ratio to assume 20, 25 and 30 percent for the low cost, intermediate 

and high cost alternatives, respectively.

Table 11.—Legal Immigrants Admitted to the United States

(in thousands)

Reflecting Revised Categories in the 1990 Immigration Act, Subject to limitation under the Overall Flexible Cap

Fiscal 

Year IRCA1

Total

non IRCA2 Family Sponsored

Employment 

Based

Immediate 

Relatives

Refugees & 

Asylees

Other Specially

 Legislated Immigrants3

1985 --- 570 213 53 204 95 4

1986 --- 602 213 57 223 104 4

1987 --- 602 212 58 219 92 22

1988 --- 643 201 59 219 82 82

1989 479 612 217 58 218 84 35

1990 880 656 215 58 232 97 54

1991 1,123 704 216 60 237 139 52

1992 163 810 213 116 235 117 129

1993 24 880 227 147 255 127 124

1994 6 798 212 123 250 121 92

1995 4 716 238 85 220 115 58
36

In determining the ultimate level of net legal immigration for the intermediate alternative, the following 

assumptions are made:

(1) 675,000 immigrants admitted per year under the family-based, employment-based and diversity categories, the flexible cap in the 1990 Immigration Act

(2) 125,000 asylees, refugees and other miscellaneous immigrants, levels for these categories set annually 

by the President and the Congress

(3) Emigration is estimated to be approximately 25 percent of the level of legal immigration

This results in an intermediate assumption of 600,000 per year for the intermediate alternative net legal 

immigration for years after 2000. The ultimate levels of net legal immigration for years after 2000, for 

the low and high cost alternatives are assumed to be 700,000, and 550,000 persons per year, respectively.

The age-sex distribution of the assumed legal immigration was based on data supplied by the INS on 

immigration during 1978 through 1995. The age-sex distribution of the assumed legal emigration was 

based on estimates of foreign-born emigration for 1960 to 1970 in "Foreign-Born Emigration From the 

United States: 1960 to 1970" by Robert Warren and Jennifer Peck in Demography, February 1980. Table 

12 shows the age-sex distributions of the annual net legal immigration (excess of immigration over emigration) assumed for the ultimate, years 2000 and later.

Table 12.—Assumed Annual Net Legal Immigration by Age Group, Sex, and Alternative 

Alternative and age group Total Male Female

Low Cost Alternative :

0-4 41,649 20,843 20,806

5-9 39,041 19,694 19,347

10-14 54,985 28,116 26,869

15-19 65,733 33,963 31,770

20-24 80,620 40,570 40,050

25-29 96,577 47,889 48,688

30-34 81,044 39,730 41,314

35-39 58,655 28,330 30,325

40-44 41,912 19,732 22,180

45-49 30,977 14,795 16,182

50-54 25,887 11,427 14,460

55-59 23,887 10,107 13,780

60-64 21,767 9,181 12,586

65-69 16,924 7,316 9,608

70-74 10,887 4,690 6,197

75-79 5,647 2,364 3,283

80-84 3,808 1,518 2,290

85 + 0 0 0

0-19 201,408 102,616 98,792

20-64 461,326 221,761 239,565

65 + 37,266 15,888 21,378

Total 700,000 340,265 359,735
37

Alternative and age group Total Male Female

Intermediate Alternative :

0-4 37,668 18,874 18,794

5-9 30,878 15,483 15,395

10-14 46,093 23,502 22,591

15-19 54,960 28,529 26,431

20-24 69,489 36,128 33,361

25-29 82,331 41,507 40,824

30-34 69,349 34,076 35,273

35-39 50,460 24,414 26,046

40-44 35,985 16,927 19,058

45-49 26,652 12,820 13,832

50-54 22,522 9,976 12,546

55-59 20,878 8,874 12,004

60-64 19,210 8,116 11,094

65-69 14,970 6,461 8,509

70-74 9,930 4,264 5,666

75-79 5,151 2,151 3,000

80-84 3,474 1,380 2,094

85 + 0 0 0

0-19 169,599 86,388 83,211

20-64 396,876 192,838 204,038

65 + 33,525 14,256 19,269

Total 600,000 293,482 306,518

High Cost Alternative :

0-4 36,585 18,353 18,232

5-9 25,594 12,728 12,866

10-14 41,171 20,920 20,251

15-19 48,933 25,541 23,392

20-24 64,102 34,537 29,565

25-29 75,008 38,532 36,476

30-34 63,446 31,260 32,186

35-39 46,448 22,518 23,930

40-44 33,046 15,527 17,519

45-49 24,536 11,898 12,638

50-54 20,993 9,334 11,659

55-59 19,560 8,357 11,203

60-64 18,191 7,702 10,489

65-69 14,208 6,121 8,087

70-74 9,728 4,162 5,566

75-79 5,046 2,099 2,947

80-84 3,405 1,349 2,056

85 + 0 0 0

0-19 152,283 77,542 74,741

20-64 365,330 179,665 185,665

65 + 32,387 13,731 18,656

Total 550,000 270,938 279,062

Table 12.—Assumed Annual Net Legal Immigration by Age Group, Sex, and Alternative (Cont.) 
38

In deciding upon the level of annual net immigration to be assumed for future years, the possibility of 

making some provision for persons not legally entering the United States arises. Estimates of these aliens 

are included in our starting population, in accordance with the official policy of the Bureau of Census to 

enumerate or to include in the estimated undercount all persons residing in the U.S. In a recent joint 

project, INS and the Bureau of Census examined the illegal immigrant population between October 1988 

and October 1992. Not counting those who would be subsequently legalized under the IRCA program, 

there were still estimated to be 2.2 million illegal immigrants in the population as of October 1988. At the 

time of the 1990 census there were estimated to be 2.6 million illegal, increasing by October 1992 to 3.4 

million. The INS is currently in the process of revising its estimates of net illegal immigration based on 

information provided by persons legalized under IRCA, counts of unauthorized immigrants in Census 

surveys, and the number of overstays of legally admitted persons. INS estimates that between 1988 and 

1992, illegal immigration averaged 300,000 persons per year, numbers significantly higher than the 

200,000 estimate based on 1980 Census data. 

Even after considering the effects of recent legislation, annual net other-than-legal immigration is anticipated to continue, because of the limited economic opportunity in the native countries of the majority of 

these aliens. Because of this expectation, for years after 1995 the intermediate alternative assumption for 

annual net other-than-legal immigration is 300,000. For the low and high cost alternatives, the corresponding numbers are 450,000 and 200,000, respectively. The age-sex distribution of the other-than-legal 

immigrants was based on unpublished Bureau of Census estimates of the undocumented population 

counted in the 1980 Census. Table 13 shows the age-sex distribution of the assumed net other-than-legal 

immigration for the three Alternatives. 

Table 13.—Assumed Annual Net Other-Than-Legal Immigration 

by Age Group, Sex, and Alternative 

Alternative and age group Total Male Female

Low Cost Alternative :

0-4 41,208 21,083 20,125

5-9 46,006 24,440 21,566

10-14 31,630 15,815 15,815

15-19 63,261 35,944 27,317

20-24 118,370 70,447 47,923

25-29 68,532 38,819 29,713

30-34 29,233 15,336 13,897

35-39 14,378 7,189 7,189

40-44 11,502 6,230 5,272

45-49 8,147 4,313 3,834

50-54 5,751 2,876 2,875

55-59 3,834 1,917 1,917

60-64 2,281 537 1,744

65-69 1,956 460 1,496

70-74 1,630 385 1,245

75-79 1,303 307 996

80-84 978 231 747

85 + 0 0 0

0-19 182,105 97,282 84,823

20-64 262,028 147,664 114,364

65 + 5,867 1,383 4,484

Total 450,000 246,329 203,671
39

Intermediate Alternative :

0-4 27,477 14,059 13,418

5-9 30,671 16,294 14,377

10-14 21,086 10,543 10,543

15-19 42,171 23,961 18,210

20-24 78,913 46,965 31,948

25-29 45,688 25,879 19,809

30-34 19,490 10,225 9,265

35-39 9,585 4,792 4,793

40-44 7,668 4,153 3,515

45-49 5,432 2,875 2,557

50-54 3,833 1,916 1,917

55-59 2,557 1,279 1,278

60-64 1,522 358 1,164

65-69 1,302 306 996

70-74 1,085 255 830

75-79 869 204 665

80-84 651 153 498

85 + 0 0 0

0-19 121,405 64,857 56,548

20-64 174,688 98,442 76,246

65 + 3,907 918 2,989

Total 300,000 164,217 135,783

High Cost Alternative :

0-4 18,323 9,375 8,948

5-9 20,445 10,861 9,584

10-14 14,058 7,030 7,028

15-19 28,114 15,974 12,140

20-24 52,609 31,310 21,299

25-29 30,458 17,252 13,206

30-34 12,992 6,816 6,176

35-39 6,390 3,194 3,196

40-44 5,111 2,769 2,342

45-49 3,621 1,917 1,704

50-54 2,555 1,278 1,277

55-59 1,704 852 852

60-64 1,013 238 775

65-69 869 205 664

70-74 724 170 554

75-79 579 136 443

80-84 435 102 333

85 + 0 0 0

0-19 80,940 43,240 37,700

20-64 116,453 65,626 50,827

65 + 2,607 613 1,994

Total 200,000 109,479 90,521

Table 13.—Assumed Annual Net Other-Than-Legal Immigration 

by Age Group, Sex, and Alternative (Cont.)
40

4. Marriage

Because marriage is the combination of a male and a female into a couple, marriage rates can be computed as a ratio of the number of marriages to the number of nonmarried males (not taking into account 

the number of nonmarried females), the number of nonmarried females (not taking into account the number of nonmarried males), or a theoretical number of nonmarried couples that takes into account both the 

number of nonmarried males and nonmarried females. The marriage rates referred to in this study are 

computed using the third concept of a theoretical number of nonmarried couples as the denominator. The 

rates were computed as the number of marriages for given ages of husband and wife divided by the square 

root of the product (geometric mean) of the midyear nonmarried males and nonmarried females of the 

given ages.

In order to calculate these rates, data on new marriages in the Marriage Registration Area (MRA) were 

obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics for calendar years 1957 through 1988 by age of 

husband crossed with age of wife. In 1988, the MRA consisted of 42 States and D.C. and accounted for 

80 percent of all marriages in the U.S. Estimates of the nonmarried population in the MRA were obtained 

from NCHS by age and sex.

The number of marriages depends upon the age distribution of both the nonmarried male population and 

the nonmarried female population. Thus, an acceptable summary statistic for the marriage rate could be 

calculated by age-adjustment to a set of standard nonmarried populations. When only one population is 

involved (as in calculating death rates), equal results are obtained by viewing the age-adjusting concept as 

the weighted average of the age-specific rates or as the crude rate that would occur in the standard population. When two populations are involved (as in calculating marriage rates), these two concepts do not 

produce the same results.

Using either concept, the first step in calculating the age-adjusted marriage rate is to determine the number of marriages that would occur in the standard population. This number, the expected number of marriages, is determined by applying the age-of-husband-age-of-wife-specific marriage rates to the geometric 

mean of the corresponding standard age-specific populations. To age-adjust using the weighted average 

concept, the expected number of marriages is divided by the sum of all of the factors to which the marriage rates were applied, i.e., the sum of the geometric means of the corresponding age-specific populations. To age-adjust using the crude rate concept, the expected number of marriages is divided by the 

geometric mean of the total male nonmarried population and the total female nonmarried population. In 

this study we have calculated rates (as shown in Figure 3 and Table 14 ) under the latter concept, i.e., the 

crude rate that would be experienced in the standard population, which we express per hundred thousand 

nonmarried of each sex.

The first step in calculating the total age-adjusted central marriage rate for a particular year is to determine an expected number of marriages by applying the age-of-husband age-of-wife specific central marriage rates for that year to the square root of the product of the corresponding age groups of unmarried 

males and unmarried females in the MRA as of July 1, 1982. The total age-adjusted central marriage rate 

is then obtained by dividing the expected number of marriages by the square root of the product of the 

number of unmarried males, ages 15 and older, and the unmarried females, ages 15 and older in the MRA 

as of July 1, 1982. The rates in Table 14 were obtained by this method.
41

Table 14.—Age-Adjusted Central Marriage Rates in the Marriage Registration Area

 by Calendar Year and Alternative 

(Per hundred thousand unmarried of each sex)

Calendar year Age-adjusted marriage rate

1957 9,975

1958 9,775

1959 10,024

1960 10,015

1961 9,519

1962 9,465

1963 9,716

1964 9,812

1965 9,851

1966 10,158

1967 9,929

1968 10,168

1969 10,129

1970 9,680

1971 9,302

1972 9,412

1973 9,077

1974 8,332

1975 7,687

1976 7,303

1977 6,982

1978 6,784

1979 6,661

1980 6,256

1981 6,120

1982 5,967

1983 5,743

1984 5,623

1985 5,364

1986 5,249

1987 5,121

1988 5,032

1989 5,648

1990 5,711

1991 5,539

1992 5,528

1993 5,432

1994 5,429

1995 5,536

Low Cost Alternative Intermediate Alternative High Cost Alternative

1996 5,415 5,524 5,750

1997 5,350 5,512 5,854

1998 5,285 5,500 5,960

1999 5,222 5,488 6,068

2000 5,159 5,476 6,178
42

An examination of the age-adjusted marriage rates since 1957 shows that the rates remained relatively 

stable during the late 1950's and throughout the 1960's. A major decrease in the age-adjusted rate was 

experienced during the 1970's and continued into the 1980's. The total rates shown in Table 14 and in 

Figure 3 range from a high in 1968 of 10,168 per hundred thousand nonmarried persons of each sex to a 

low in 1988 of 5,032. At first glance the statistics for 1989 through 1995, as shown in Table 14, indicate 

a rise in the marriage rate. The provisional age-adjusted marriage rates are based on United States data, 

which historically produce higher rates than the MRA data. This is because the MRA does not include 

the state of Nevada, a state which marries large numbers of out-of state residents. In order to compare the 

rates determined from the two sources of data, a factor in the neighborhood of .9 should be applied to the 

age-adjusted marriage rates based on U.S. data. Once this factor is applied, the provisional age-adjusted 

marriage rates for 1989 through 1995 indicate a continuation, yet slowing down, of the declining trend.

Because of uncertainty whether marriage rates will increase or decrease, we assumed for the intermediate 

alternative that future age-adjusted rates of marriage for the Social Security Area would continue to 

slowly decrease and then stabilize in 2021. The age-adjusted marriage rate in 2021 is assumed to equal 

approximately 95 percent of the average of the age-adjusted marriage rates for the period 1989 through 

1995. The use of constant age-adjusted rates does not imply that the crude rate of marriage in the projected population remains constant.

While it is possible that marriage rates will continue to decline, it is not likely that the rate of decline of 

recent history will continue indefinitely into the future. Taking this into account, for the low cost alternative, we assume that the ultimate age-adjusted marriage rate will decline to 4,000 in the year 2021 and 

Calendar year Low Cost Alternative Intermediate Alternative High Cost Alternative

2001 5,097 5,464 6,289

2002 5,035 5,452 6,403

2003 4,975 5,440 6,519

2004 4,915 5,428 6,637

2005 4,856 5,416 6,757

2006 4,797 5,404 6,879

2007 4,739 5,392 7,003

2008 4,682 5,381 7,130

2009 4,626 5,369 7,259

2010 4,570 5,357 7,390

2011 4,515 5,346 7,524

2012 4,461 5,334 7,660

2013 4,407 5,322 7,798

2014 4,354 5,311 7,939

2015 4,302 5,299 8,083

2016 4,250 5,287 8,229

2017 4,199 5,276 8,377

2018 4,148 5,264 8,529

2019 4,098 5,253 8,683

2020 4,049 5,241 8,840

2021 4,000 5,230 9,000

Table 14.—Age-Adjusted Central Marriage Rates in the Marriage Registration Area

 by Calendar Year and Alternative (Cont.)

(Per hundred thousand unmarried of each sex)
43

stay at this level for the remainder of the projection period. It is also possible that marriage rates will, on 

the average, rise above their present low level. We, however, believe that the rates will not, on the average, return to the high levels found in the 1950's and 1960's. To reflect this in the high cost alternative, we 

assume that the ultimate age-adjusted marriage rate will increase to 9,000 in the year 2021 and stay at this 

level for the remainder of the projection period.

 Figure 3.—Age-Adjusted Marriage Rates

(per hundred thousand unmarried of each sex)

in the MRA, 1957-1995

 Calendar Year

To obtain the age-of-husband-age-of-wife-specific rates for a particular year from the age-adjusted rate 

projected for that year, the age-of-husband-age-of-wife-specific rates for the years 1978 and 1979 and 

1981 through 1988 were averaged, graduated, and proportionally ratioed so as to produce the ageadjusted rate for the particular year. Data for 1980 were not available. The rates assumed for years after 

1995 for the intermediate alternative are shown in Table 15 grouped by 5 year age groups based on Social 

Security Area population as of July 1, 1995. 

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995
44

Note: The central marriage rate is the ratio of the number of marriages during the year in the tabulated age cell to the square root of the product of the midyear number of unmarried males in the age group of husband and the midyear number of unmarried females in the age

group of wife.

A complete projection of age-of-husband-age-of-wife-specific marriage rates was not done separately for 

each previous marital status. However, experience data indicate that the differential in marriage rates by 

previous marital status is significant. Future relative differences in marriage rates by previous marital status were assumed to be the same as the average of those experienced during 1979 and 1981 through 1988. 

Data for 1980 were not available. The marriage rates for the years 1979 and 1981 through 1988 were 

obtained from unpublished data supplied by the National Center for Health Statistics. The average of 

these marriage rates, with slight modifications, grouped by 5-year age groups based on the MRA population as of July 1, 1982, are given in Table 16.

Table 15.—Assumed Central Marriage Rates for Alternative II by Age of Husband and Wife

(Per hundred thousand unmarried of each sex)

Age group

of Husband

Age Group of Wife

14-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94

14-19 1,237.5 334.9 58.4 21.0 7.6 2.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

20-24 2,211.4 5,383.0 1,249.2 324.4 104.1 29.3 8.2 2.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

25-29 541.7 4,043.6 4,280.5 1,365.8 390.3 115.6 30.4 8.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

30-34 177.4 1,439.9 3,170.9 2,706.3 1,011.6 305.4 90.6 19.8 5.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

35-39 66.5 594.5 1,587.3 2,315.0 1,861.1 725.6 223.7 56.5 12.3 3.4 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0

40-44 26.6 217.7 700.5 1,282.7 1,678.0 1,282.1 492.7 130.9 33.6 8.9 3.1 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0

45-49 14.2 81.9 286.2 635.9 1,027.3 1,240.1 900.6 306.4 82.1 22.9 5.9 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0

50-54 7.1 32.8 113.3 280.2 532.4 798.5 897.8 604.1 193.5 55.5 15.8 4.5 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.0

55-59 3.0 14.5 48.7 115.0 240.6 429.4 601.3 643.1 423.1 152.3 39.8 11.2 3.3 0.9 0.5 0.0

60-64 1.8 6.2 19.2 44.3 96.1 188.7 301.9 409.0 432.5 341.2 107.5 27.5 6.9 1.8 0.0 0.0

65-69 1.2 2.9 7.5 16.6 33.7 64.1 117.3 182.4 259.1 330.0 236.0 67.5 14.6 3.4 0.4 0.0

70-74 1.0 2.5 2.9 6.2 13.0 26.0 43.4 70.4 115.4 184.9 229.8 152.5 38.7 6.7 1.9 0.0

75-79 0.2 2.1 1.8 2.6 5.3 10.1 16.6 29.9 48.4 84.1 121.4 132.7 83.4 14.6 2.7 0.1

80-84 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.8 2.6 3.3 6.4 12.1 18.3 30.1 46.9 61.6 49.6 25.9 4.8 0.3

85-89 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.6 1.1 2.9 4.4 6.3 9.1 12.9 17.2 19.6 14.5 3.8 0.6

90-94 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.8 2.1 3.3 4.5 4.6 3.0 1.7 6.0
45

Note : The central marriage rate is the ratio of the number of marriages during the year in the tabulated age cell to the square root of the product of the midyear number of unmarried males in the age group of husband and the midyear number of unmarried females in the age

group of wife.

Table 16.—Average of Calendar Years 1979 and 1981-86 Central Marriage Rates

 by Age Group, Sex, and Marital Status

(Per thousand)

Sex and age group

Marital status

Total Single Widowed Divorced

Male:

14-19 16.8 16.7 166.9 152.0

20-24 79.8 75.9 209.5 216.5

25-29 117.3 99.5 225.0 212.2

30-34 111.5 73.4 184.3 191.5

35-39 95.0 41.1 100.5 159.2

40-44 88.4 35.3 89.9 151.5

45-49 58.3 15.3 64.9 108.3

50-54 54.1 12.7 62.2 99.8

55-59 37.0 7.4 54.8 60.0

60-64 35.1 6.4 50.3 53.1

65-69 16.1 2.7 19.6 27.7

70-74 14.2 2.3 16.6 24.5

75-79 14.5 2.3 16.6 24.7

80-84 14.9 2.3 16.6 24.7

85-89 15.5 2.3 16.6 24.7

90-94 15.8 2.3 16.6 24.7

Female:

14-19 38.2 37.5 237.2 200.4

20-24 107.4 99.6 136.7 224.9

25-29 129.0 105.5 84.6 189.8

30-34 101.5 66.9 62.3 138.5

35-39 65.6 34.5 36.3 91.3

40-44 59.9 29.3 32.4 82.8

45-49 31.2 12.0 20.9 47.7

50-54 25.2 9.7 18.8 41.7

55-59 11.2 4.8 9.7 18.8

60-64 8.8 3.9 8.2 15.4

65-69 2.8 1.1 2.5 6.8

70-74 2.1 0.8 2.0 5.6

75-79 2.0 0.8 2.0 5.7

80-84 2.0 0.8 2.0 5.7

85-89 2.0 0.8 2.0 5.7

90-94 2.0 0.8 2.0 5.7
46

5. Divorce

Data on divorces (including annulments) in the Divorce Registration Area (DRA) during calendar years 

1979 through 1988 by age group of husband crossed with age group of wife, were obtained from the 

National Center for Health Statistics. For each of the above calendar years, the number of divorces occurring in the DRA (which in 1988 consisted of 31 States and accounted for about 48 percent of all divorces 

in the U.S.) were inflated to represent the Social Security Area, based on the total number of divorces during the corresponding calendar year in the 50 States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin 

Islands. Divorce rates for each age of husband crossed with each age of wife were then calculated as the 

ratio of the inflated number of divorces in the Social Security Area for the given age of husband and age 

of wife to the number of existing marriages in the Social Security Area with the given age of husband and 

age of wife. Table 17 contains the resulting rates, age-adjusted to the married Social Security Area population as of July 1, 1982.

As shown in Table 17, the age-adjusted central divorce rates were quite stable during the period 1979 

through 1988. Age-adjusted central divorce rates for 1989 through 1995 were computed using the age 

distributions of the DRA data during 1979 through 1988 and using provisional data estimating the total 

divorces in the U.S. for 1989 through 1995. The resulting age-adjusted rates are slightly lower than those 

for 1979 through 1988. For 1996, the age-adjusted central divorce rate was assumed to be equal to the 

average of the age-adjusted rates for the seven provisional years for all three alternatives.
47

Note: The central divorce rate is the ratio of the number of divorces during the year in the tabulated age cell to the midyear 

number of married couples in that cell.

Table 17.—Age-Adjusted Central Divorce Rates by Calendar Year and Alternative

(Per hundred thousand married couples)

Calendar year Age-adjusted divorce rate

1979 2,205

1980 2,209

1981 2,256

1982 2,177

1983 2,153

1984 2,168

1985 2,198

1986 2,174

1987 2,151

1988 2,191

1989 2,134

1990 2,123

1991 2,111

1992 2,157

1993 2,120

1994 2,140

1995 2,131

1996 2,131

Low Cost Alternative Intermediate Alternative High Cost Alternative

1997 2,141 2,129 2,116

1998 2,151 2,128 2,102

1999 2,161 2,126 2,088

2000 2,172 2,124 2,074

2001 2,182 2,123 2,060

2002 2,193 2,121 2,046

2003 2,203 2,119 2,032

2004 2,213 2,118 2,019

2005 2,224 2,116 2,005

2006 2,235 2,114 1,992

2007 2,245 2,113 1,978

2008 2,256 2,111 1,965

2009 2,267 2,109 1,952

2010 2,278 2,108 1,939

2011 2,288 2,106 1,926

2012 2,299 2,105 1,913

2013 2,310 2,103 1,900

2014 2,321 2,101 1,887

2015 2,332 2,100 1,874

2016 2,344 2,098 1,862

2017 2,355 2,096 1,849

2018 2,366 2,095 1,837

2019 2,377 2,093 1,824

2020 2,389 2,092 1,812

2021 2,400 2,090 1,800
48

Because age-adjusted central divorce rates have remained fairly constant over the last ten years, we 

assumed under the intermediate alternative that throughout the projection period the age-adjusted rate 

would remain close to the same level as that recently experienced. For the low cost alternative, we 

assumed that the age-adjusted rate would gradually increase to approximately 110 percent of the 1995 

estimated value in 25 years and then remain at this level throughout the remaining projection period. For 

the high cost alternative, age-adjusted rates are assumed to decrease, reaching approximately 85 percent 

of the 1995 estimated rate in 25 years and then to remain constant throughout the remaining projection 

period.

To obtain age-specific rates for use in the projections, the age-of-husband-age-of-wife-specific rates for 

the years 1979 through 1988 were averaged and then graduated. For each alternative and year after 1995, 

the averaged and graduated rates were adjusted by a factor so as to produce the age-adjusted central 

divorce rate assumed for that particular year and alternative. The rates assumed for years after 1995 for 

the intermediate alternative are shown in Table 18 grouped by 5 year age groups based on Social Security 

Area population as of January 1, 1990.

 Note : The central divorce rate is the ratio of the number of divorces during the year in the tabulated age cell to the midyear number of married couples in that cell.

D. Methods

Future numbers of births, deaths, net immigrants, marriages, and divorces are estimated by applying the 

following methods to the projected data described in the preceding section. End of year population data is 

determined from the beginning of year population data.

Estimates of the size of the single (never married) population at the end of the year, for each age and sex, 

are calculated from the estimated single population at the beginning of the year by subtracting the number 

of deaths and marriages among single persons during the year, and adding the number of net immigrants 

of single persons during the year. The married population at the end of the year is calculated from that at 

the beginning of the year by subtracting estimates of the numbers of deaths, widowings, and divorces durTable 18.—Assumed Central Divorce Rates for Alternative II by Age of Husband and Wife

(Per hundred thousand unmarried of each sex)

Age group 

of Husband

Age group of Wife

14-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89

14-19 5,460.1 7,030.4 4,046.8 7,475.6 8,277.7 6,813.6 4,705.9 1,856.1 -- -- -- -- -- -- --

20-24 6,872.3 5,697.7 4,301.4 4,808.4 6,957.1 7,965.7 7,256.3 4,879.2 2,527.6 1,120.1 451.8 -- -- -- --

25-29 5,562.3 5,205.2 4,134.7 3,561.7 5,075.5 6,812.7 7,114.4 5,664.2 3,430.7 2,764.3 2,005.5 163.0 -- -- --

30-34 6,267.0 4,461.4 3,916.6 3,127.2 3,427.7 4,703.5 5,474.3 5,206.2 3,916.5 3,454.4 2,583.3 1,771.5 783.5 -- --

35-39 7,403.7 5,095.9 3,874.1 2,877.1 2,580.4 2,794.0 3,685.3 4,076.2 3,475.5 3,245.4 2,773.8 2,517.6 2,003.1 -- --

40-44 7,403.1 5,873.8 4,594.9 3,230.5 2,177.5 2,004.2 2,105.9 2,600.3 2,569.0 2,563.4 2,463.1 2,259.1 1,705.4 -- --

45-49 6,589.4 5,958.2 4,914.3 3,540.5 2,368.6 1,583.5 1,330.8 1,327.7 1,469.0 1,558.3 1,554.0 1,442.0 1,425.9 -- --

50-54 4,517.5 5,034.7 4,554.0 3,706.0 2,721.7 1,666.2 1,026.6 806.4 675.2 751.7 793.7 799.3 893.0 186.2 --

55-59 3,502.6 4,123.1 3,896.6 3,605.1 2,903.8 1,966.4 1,070.4 557.3 272.1 262.3 317.7 353.1 406.0 50.3 --

60-64 3,533.6 3,457.2 3,598.1 3,582.2 2,966.6 2,052.3 1,134.9 537.1 246.8 240.4 254.0 253.7 250.8 319.6 --

65-69 2,400.0 3,315.6 3,410.2 3,600.9 2,907.9 2,051.3 1,156.6 569.7 273.9 245.2 247.4 241.7 223.0 246.5 263.9

70-74 -- 2,760.1 3,528.7 3,324.6 2,826.6 1,963.2 1,133.9 576.9 278.7 247.4 247.5 243.5 229.0 238.9 272.4

75-79 -- 776.7 4,554.1 3,455.1 2,542.6 1,819.6 1,090.9 570.7 281.2 234.9 242.6 235.1 231.6 267.1 300.4

80-84 -- -- -- 789.0 1,079.9 1,179.6 838.9 677.3 301.1 222.1 215.9 219.0 230.5 250.8 231.0

85-89 -- -- -- -- -- -- 151.1 508.1 336.5 296.2 265.2 264.2 242.9 196.8 170.9
49

ing the year, and adding estimates of the numbers of marriages and net married immigration during the 

year. Similarly, the widowed population at the end of the year is calculated by subtracting the deaths and 

marriages, and adding the widowings and the net immigration of widowed persons. The divorced population at the end of the year is calculated by subtracting the deaths and marriages, and adding the divorces 

and the net immigration of divorced persons.

1. Fertility

In order to determine the number of births during a year, birth rates for that year were applied to the average of the beginning-of-year and end-of-year female population. Projected numbers of births are given in 

Table 20 by alternative.

2. Mortality

a. Probability of Survival

Earlier in this study, death rates (generally referred to as central death rates) were presented which were 

calculated as the number of deaths occurring in a given year divided by the midyear population in that 

year. This concept is a useful one in the context of analyzing historical trends, but is not so readily applicable to the actual projection of population. What is more suitable is the concept of probability of death 

(or of survival). This concept involves dividing the number of deaths occurring to a group in a given year 

by the number of persons in that group at the beginning of the year (rather than the population at the middle of the year). As one would expect, these two concepts are closely related, although the mathematics 

of their relationship is not trivial.

Future probabilities of survival by age last birthday were calculated for each sex and each single year of 

age from the projected central death rates by sex and age group. For each future year in the projection 

period, the probability of death at age 0 was calculated from the projected central death rate for age 0 

assuming that the relationship between the probability of death and the central death rate that existed in 

1994 remained constant. For each single year of age 1 through 4, probabilities of death were calculated in 

the same manner using central death rates for the age group 1 through 4 (4m1). Probabilities of death at 

ages 5 and older were calculated by an iterative method. As a first approximation, the probability of 

death for each five year age group from 5 through 9 to 90 through 94 was calculated from the corresponding central death rate assuming that on the average deaths occurred at the middle of the age interval. As 

part of the iterative process, the probability of death for each single age in each five-year age group was 

determined by interpolating the logarithms of the complements of the surrounding five-year probabilities 

of death with Beer's minimized fifth-difference formula. The probability of death for each age 95 and 

over was calculated to produce a rapid decline in the ratio of succeeding probabilities of death to a minimum ratio of 1.06 for females and 1.05 for males. These ratios were chosen based on the analysis by 

Francisco R. Bayo and Joseph F. Faber contained in the paper "Mortality Experience Around Age 100," 

in the Transactions of the Society of Actuaries, Volume XXXV.

An initial life table for each sex was then constructed using these probabilities of death. On subsequent 

iterations, the life table probability of death for each age 5 through 94 was adjusted so that the central 

death rates for the five-year age groups obtained by weighting the single age life table central death rates 

by the population would equal the corresponding population five-year age group central death rates. This 

adjustment corrects for the fact that the distribution within each quinquennial age group in the life table 

population generally differs from that in the actual population. For more detail on the method used to 
50

produce the life tables for these population projections see Actuarial Study No. 107, "Life Tables For The 

United States Social Security Area: 1900-2080" by Felicitie C. Bell, Alice H. Wade and Stephen C. Goss.

Table 19 is the life table for 1994, the last calendar year that complete data was available. The standard 

actuarial functions presented in Table 19 are defined below.

qx = the probability that a person exact age x will die within one year

 lx = the number of persons surviving to exact age x, or the number of persons 

reaching exact age x during each year in the stationary population

Lx = the number of person-years lived between exact ages x and x+1, or the 

number of persons alive at age last birthday x at any time in the stationary 

population

Tx = the number of person-years lived after exact age x, or the number of 

persons alive at age last birthday x or older at any time in the stationary 

population

°ex = the average number of years of life remaining at exact age x

Table 19.—United States Life Table Functions in Calendar Year 1994 

x qx lx Lx Tx °ex qx lx Lx Tx °ex

Age

Probability 

of death Lives

Person Years 

Lived

Sum of Person

 Years Lived

Life 

Expectancy

Probability 

of Death Lives

Person Years 

Lived

Sum of Person 

Years Lived

Life 

Expectancy

Males Females

0 .008796 100000 99236 7218748 72.19 .007192 100000 99377 7900005 79.00

1 .000674 99120 99087 7119511 71.83 .000594 99281 99251 7800629 78.57

2 .000492 99054 99029 7020424 70.88 .000383 99222 99203 7701377 77.62

3 .000385 99005 98986 6921396 69.91 .000273 99184 99170 7602174 76.65

4 .000307 98967 98952 6822410 68.94 .000250 99157 99144 7503004 75.67

5 .000269 98936 98923 6723458 67.96 .000210 99132 99122 7403859 74.69

6 .000250 98910 98897 6624535 66.98 .000184 99111 99102 7304737 73.70

7 .000233 98885 98873 6525638 65.99 .000165 99093 99085 7205635 72.72

8 .000206 98862 98852 6426764 65.01 .000150 99077 99069 7106551 71.73

9 .000171 98842 98833 6327912 64.02 .000139 99062 99055 7007482 70.74

10 .000142 98825 98818 6229079 63.03 .000135 99048 99041 6908427 69.75

11 .000151 98811 98803 6130261 62.04 .000142 99035 99028 6809386 68.76

12 .000231 98796 98784 6031459 61.05 .000168 99020 99012 6710358 67.77

13 .000402 98773 98753 5932674 60.06 .000216 99004 98993 6611346 66.78

14 .000636 98733 98702 5833921 59.09 .000279 98982 98969 6512353 65.79

15 .000900 98670 98626 5735219 58.13 .000353 98955 98937 6413385 64.81

16 .001144 98582 98525 5636593 57.18 .000422 98920 98899 6314447 63.83

17 .001337 98469 98403 5538068 56.24 .000473 98878 98855 6215548 62.86

18 .001453 98337 98266 5439665 55.32 .000494 98831 98807 6116694 61.89

19 .001510 98194 98120 5341399 54.40 .000495 98783 98758 6017887 60.92

20 .001559 98046 97970 5243279 53.48 .000491 98734 98709 5919129 59.95

21 .001618 97893 97814 5145310 52.56 .000495 98685 98661 5820419 58.98

22 .001658 97735 97654 5047496 51.64 .000504 98636 98612 5721758 58.01

23 .001678 97573 97491 4949842 50.73 .000523 98587 98561 5623146 57.04

24 .001686 97409 97327 4852351 49.81 .000551 98535 98508 5524585 56.07
51

x qx lx Lx Tx °ex qx lx Lx Tx °ex

Age

Probability 

of death Lives

Person Years 

Lived

Sum of Person

 Years Lived

Life 

Expectancy

Probability 

of Death Lives

Person Years 

Lived

Sum of Person 

Years Lived

Life 

Expectancy

Males Females

25 .001682 97245 97163 4755024 48.90 .000581 98481 98452 5426077 55.10

26 .001686 97081 96999 4657861 47.98 .000612 98424 98393 5327625 54.13

27 .001726 96918 96834 4560861 47.06 .000646 98363 98332 5229232 53.16

28 .001819 96750 96662 4464028 46.14 .000683 98300 98266 5130901 52.20

29 .001949 96574 96480 4367365 45.22 .000725 98233 98197 5032635 51.23

30 .002097 96386 96285 4270885 44.31 .000771 98161 98124 4934437 50.27

31 .002239 96184 96076 4174600 43.40 .000821 98086 98046 4836314 49.31

32 .002369 95969 95855 4078524 42.50 .000877 98005 97962 4738269 48.35

33 .002479 95741 95623 3982669 41.60 .000940 97919 97873 4640306 47.39

34 .002576 95504 95381 3887046 40.70 .001010 97827 97778 4542433 46.43

35 .002676 95258 95130 3791666 39.80 .001089 97728 97675 4444655 45.48

36 .002792 95003 94870 3696535 38.91 .001173 97622 97565 4346979 44.53

37 .002921 94738 94599 3601665 38.02 .001253 97507 97446 4249415 43.58

38 .003065 94461 94316 3507065 37.13 .001325 97385 97321 4151969 42.63

39 .003225 94171 94020 3412749 36.24 .001396 97256 97188 4054648 41.69

40 .003407 93868 93708 3318730 35.36 .001474 97120 97049 3957460 40.75

41 .003602 93548 93379 3225022 34.47 .001571 96977 96901 3860410 39.81

42 .003790 93211 93034 3131642 33.60 .001688 96825 96743 3763509 38.87

43 .003965 92858 92674 3038608 32.72 .001832 96662 96573 3666766 37.93

44 .004141 92490 92298 2945935 31.85 .002002 96484 96388 3570193 37.00

45 .004337 92107 91907 2853637 30.98 .002193 96291 96186 3473805 36.08

46 .004577 91707 91497 2761730 30.11 .002402 96080 95965 3377619 35.15

47 .004882 91287 91064 2670233 29.25 .002632 95849 95723 3281655 34.24

48 .005265 90842 90603 2579168 28.39 .002882 95597 95459 3185931 33.33

49 .005720 90363 90105 2488566 27.54 .003155 95322 95171 3090472 32.42

50 .006245 89846 89566 2398461 26.70 .003461 95021 94856 2995301 31.52

51 .006814 89285 88981 2308895 25.86 .003799 94692 94512 2900444 30.63

52 .007401 88677 88349 2219914 25.03 .004159 94332 94136 2805932 29.75

53 .007995 88021 87669 2131565 24.22 .004542 93940 93727 2711796 28.87

54 .008620 87317 86941 2043896 23.41 .004954 93513 93282 2618070 28.00

55 .009318 86564 86161 1956955 22.61 .005413 93050 92798 2524788 27.13

56 .010125 85758 85324 1870794 21.81 .005925 92546 92272 2431990 26.28

57 .011050 84889 84420 1785471 21.03 .006486 91998 91700 2339718 25.43

58 .012108 83951 83443 1701050 20.26 .007100 91401 91077 2248019 24.60

59 .013303 82935 82383 1617607 19.50 .007775 90752 90400 2156942 23.77

60 .014595 81832 81234 1535224 18.76 .008506 90047 89664 2066542 22.95

61 .016008 80637 79992 1453990 18.03 .009311 89281 88865 1976878 22.14

62 .017610 79346 78648 1373998 17.32 .010220 88449 87997 1888013 21.35

63 .019427 77949 77192 1295350 16.62 .011246 87546 87053 1800016 20.56

64 .021428 76435 75616 1218158 15.94 .012379 86561 86025 1712962 19.79

65 .023662 74797 73912 1142542 15.28 .013657 85489 84906 1626937 19.03

66 .026008 73027 72077 1068630 14.63 .015016 84322 83689 1542032 18.29

67 .028279 71128 70122 996552 14.01 .016352 83056 82377 1458343 17.56

68 .030398 69116 68066 926430 13.40 .017622 81698 80978 1375966 16.84

69 .032489 67015 65927 858364 12.81 .018902 80258 79499 1294988 16.14

70 .034789 64838 63710 792438 12.22 .020341 78741 77940 1215489 15.44

71 .037455 62583 61410 728727 11.64 .022027 77139 76290 1137549 14.75

72 .040474 60238 59019 667317 11.08 .023942 75440 74537 1061259 14.07

73 .043914 57800 56531 608297 10.52 .026122 73634 72672 986722 13.40

74 .047794 55262 53942 551766 9.98 .028596 71710 70685 914050 12.75

Table 19.—United States Life Table Functions in Calendar Year 1994 (Cont.)
52

x qx lx Lx Tx °ex qx lx Lx Tx °ex

Age

Probability 

of death Lives

Person Years 

Lived

Sum of Person

 Years Lived

Life 

Expectancy

Probability 

of Death Lives

Person Years 

Lived

Sum of Person 

Years Lived

Life 

Expectancy

Males Females

75 .052114 52621 51250 497825 9.46 .031441 69660 68565 843365 12.11

76 .056884 49879 48460 446575 8.95 .034639 67470 66301 774800 11.48

77 .062152 47041 45579 398115 8.46 .038121 65133 63891 708499 10.88

78 .067946 44118 42619 352535 7.99 .041882 62650 61338 644608 10.29

79 .074303 41120 39592 309917 7.54 .046018 60026 58645 583270 9.72

80 .081277 38065 36518 270324 7.10 .050716 57263 55811 524626 9.16

81 .088889 34971 33417 233806 6.69 .056056 54359 52836 468814 8.62

82 .097131 31862 30315 200390 6.29 .061989 51312 49722 415979 8.11

83 .106017 28768 27243 170075 5.91 .068552 48131 46482 366257 7.61

84 .115585 25718 24231 142832 5.55 .075824 44832 43132 319775 7.13

85 .125879 22745 21314 118601 5.21 .083897 41433 39694 276643 6.68

86 .136935 19882 18521 97287 4.89 .092852 37956 36194 236949 6.24

87 .148776 17159 15883 78766 4.59 .102748 34432 32663 200754 5.83

88 .161411 14607 13428 62884 4.31 .113628 30894 29139 168091 5.44

89 .174838 12249 11178 49456 4.04 .125510 27384 25665 138952 5.07

90 .189047 10107 9152 38278 3.79 .138406 23947 22290 113287 4.73

91 .204023 8197 7360 29126 3.55 .152315 20632 19061 90997 4.41

92 .219745 6524 5807 21765 3.34 .167230 17490 16027 71936 4.11

93 .236189 5091 4489 15958 3.13 .183140 14565 13231 55909 3.84

94 .253327 3888 3396 11469 2.95 .200023 11898 10708 42677 3.59

95 .270566 2903 2510 8073 2.78 .217175 9518 8484 31970 3.36

96 .287756 2118 1813 5562 2.63 .234399 7451 6578 23485 3.15

97 .304741 1508 1279 3749 2.49 .251481 5704 4987 16908 2.96

98 .321353 1049 880 2471 2.36 .268189 4270 3697 11921 2.79

99 .337421 712 592 1591 2.23 .284280 3125 2681 8223 2.63

100 .354292 472 388 999 2.12 .301337 2236 1899 5543 2.48

101 .372006 304 248 611 2.01 .319417 1562 1313 3643 2.33

102 .390606 191 154 363 1.90 .338582 1063 883 2330 2.19

103 .410137 117 93 209 1.80 .358897 703 577 1447 2.06

104 .430644 69 54 117 1.70 .380431 451 365 870 1.93

105 .452176 39 30 63 1.60 .403257 279 223 505 1.81

106 .474784 21 16 32 1.51 .427452 167 131 282 1.69

107 .498524 11 8 16 1.42 .453099 95 74 151 1.58

108 .523450 6 4 8 1.34 .480285 52 40 77 1.47

109 .549622 3 2 3 1.26 .509102 27 20 37 1.37

110 .577103 1 1 1 1.18 .539648 13 10 17 1.27

111 .605958 1 0 1 1.10 .572027 6 4 7 1.18

112 .636256 0 0 0 1.03 .606349 3 2 3 1.10

113 .668069 0 0 0 .96 .642729 1 1 1 1.01

114 .701473 0 0 0 .90 .681293 0 0 0 .93

115 .736546 0 0 0 .84 .722171 0 0 0 .86

116 .773373 0 0 0 .78 .765501 0 0 0 .79

117 .812042 0 0 0 .72 .811431 0 0 0 .72

118 .852644 0 0 0 .66 .852644 0 0 0 .66

119 .895276 0 0 0 .61 .895276 0 0 0 .61

Table 19.—United States Life Table Functions in Calendar Year 1994 (Cont.)
53

b. Number of Deaths

The number of deaths occurring at each age and sex was calculated as the difference between the number 

of people alive at the beginning of the year and the product of the number of people alive at the beginning 

of the year and the probability of survival. Deaths to newborn babies were computed using a similar formula. However, deaths to immigrants newly arriving in the year were disregarded. The numbers of 

deaths were then distributed by marital status in the same proportions as would have been produced by 

applying the marital-status specific probabilities of survival to the population by marital status at the 

beginning of the year. Projected numbers of deaths are given in Table 20 by alternative.

c. Number of Widowings

The number of marriages dissolved by death at each age of husband crossed with each age of wife was 

calculated by applying joint-life probabilities of death to the existing marriages by age of husband crossed 

with age of wife at the beginning of the year. (The joint-life probabilities were developed to be consistent 

with the projected death rates and the assumed mortality differential by marital status, and assumed independence of the partners). The number of widowings for a particular age and sex was calculated as the 

difference between the marriages of individuals of that particular age and sex dissolved by death of either 

partner and the number of deaths to married persons of that age and sex.

3. Net Immigration

The assumed net immigration for each age and sex was distributed among the single (never married), 

married, widowed, and divorced populations based on the proportions as existed in the nonmarried (single plus widowed plus divorced) population at the beginning of the year. Adjustments were required in 

order to ensure that the numbers of net married immigrants would be consistent with the estimates of the 

married population by age of husband crossed with age of wife at the beginning of the year.

4. Marriage

The number of marriages occurring at each age of husband crossed with each age of wife is, in theory, 

obtained by multiplying the age-of-husband-age-of-wife-specific marriage rates with the geometric mean 

of the midyear male population exposed to marriage and the midyear female population exposed to marriage. Thus, the midyear populations exposed to marriage must be estimated from the beginning of the 

year nonmarried populations. Because the midyear populations exposed to marriage depend on the number of marriages during the first half of the year, the process of obtaining the number of marriages is performed iteratively.

As a first approximation, the midyear male population exposed to marriage was calculated by age as the 

average of the number of nonmarried males at the beginning of the year and an estimate of the number of 

nonmarried males at the end of the year. The nonmarried male population at the end of the year was estimated from the population at the beginning of the year by subtracting deaths and adding new immigrants, 

widows, and divorces during the year. The female population exposed to marriage was approximated 

similarly. As a second approximation, the midyear male population exposed to marriage was calculated 

in the same manner as the previously calculated midyear male population of the given age exposed to 

marriage less one-half of all marriages involving men of the given age. (The number of marriages being 

obtained by using the first midyear nonmarried population approximations). The female population 

exposed to marriage was similarly approximated. The difference between the number of marriages 
54

obtained by using the two midyear population approximations was calculated. The iterative process was 

continued until the difference between the number of marriages was small. The numbers of marriages 

were then distributed by previous marital status in the same proportions as would have been produced by 

applying the previous marital-status-specific marriage rates to the population by marital status at the 

beginning of the year. Projected numbers of marriages are given in Table 20 by alternative.

5. Divorce

The number of divorces during a year occurring at each age of husband crossed with each age of wife is, 

in theory, obtained by multiplying the age-of-husband-age-of-wife-specific divorce rates for that year 

with the midyear number of married couples in that age crossing. Because the numbers of marriages by 

age of husband crossed with age of wife are only available as of the beginning of the year, midyear estimates of these numbers must be made. In addition, because these estimates depend on the number of 

marriages and divorces occurring during the first half of the year, the process of obtaining these estimates 

is performed by a series of iterations. For the first iteration, the numbers of new marriages during the first 

half of the year is assumed to be zero. As a first approximation, for each age of husband crossed with age 

of wife, the midyear married population is estimated from the beginning of year married population by 

adjusting for the number of widowings, dissolutions occurring when both husband and wife die, and net 

immigrants during the first half of the year. As second approximation, the married population is calculated in the same manner with an additional adjustment of subtracting one-half of all divorces occurring 

during the year to couples of those age crossing. (The number of divorces being obtained by using the 

first midyear married population approximations). The total numbers of divorces over all age crossings 

using the two midyear married population approximations were calculated and the totals was determined. 

The first iterative process was continued until the difference between the successive totals was small.

For the second iteration, the process above was repeated except using an additional adjustment of adding 

in one-half of the new marriages to all of the midyear population calculations. (The number of new marriages being estimated by an iterative process as described in the next section). This process was continued until the iteration series described above and the iteration described in the next section, using the most 

recent estimates of numbers of new divorces, were completed with acceptable results. Projected numbers 

of divorces are given in Table 20 by alternative.
55

Table 20.—Selected Vital Events in the Social Security Area by 

Calendar Year and Alternative 

(In thousands)

Alternative and 

calendar year Births Deaths Marriages Divorces Widowings

Low Cost Alternative :

1995 3,998 2,397 2,389 1,253 1,000

1996 3,988 2,396 2,441 1,246 1,003

1997 3,988 2,434 2,450 1,245 1,018

1998 3,994 2,472 2,459 1,242 1,033

1999 4,005 2,510 2,469 1,238 1,047

2000 4,021 2,548 2,480 1,238 1,059

2005 4,171 2,735 2,545 1,249 1,120

2010 4,452 2,908 2,612 1,265 1,182

2015 4,695 3,081 2,641 1,286 1,254

2020 4,871 3,297 2,620 1,304 1,341

2025 4,957 3,579 2,712 1,303 1,436

2030 5,078 3,907 2,828 1,319 1,518

2035 5,270 4,228 2,950 1,347 1,570

2040 5,491 4,484 3,068 1,384 1,585

2045 5,686 4,642 3,172 1,426 1,577

2050 5,849 4,711 3,263 1,469 1,563

2055 6,007 4,734 3,358 1,514 1,560

2060 6,187 4,772 3,463 1,560 1,578

2065 6,386 4,861 3,574 1,607 1,611

2070 6,589 4,997 3,683 1,655 1,651

2075 6,782 5,144 3,789 1,704 1,691

2080 6,969 5,276 3,895 1,754 1,730

Intermediate Alternative :

1995 3,998 2,397 2,389 1,253 1,000

1996 3,963 2,415 2,466 1,246 1,015

1997 3,936 2,437 2,489 1,244 1,024

1998 3,914 2,459 2,514 1,234 1,033

1999 3,897 2,483 2,538 1,226 1,042

2000 3,884 2,505 2,562 1,221 1,049

2005 3,888 2,618 2,683 1,216 1,085

2010 4,011 2,752 2,801 1,223 1,140

2015 4,085 2,909 2,875 1,241 1,218

2020 4,074 3,100 2,880 1,255 1,312

2025 4,046 3,343 2,891 1,268 1,418

2030 4,039 3,630 2,921 1,280 1,516

2035 4,068 3,922 2,960 1,292 1,589

2040 4,109 4,169 2,990 1,303 1,628

2045 4,134 4,332 3,003 1,311 1,639

2050 4,140 4,403 3,011 1,318 1,635

2055 4,143 4,408 3,021 1,325 1,631

2060 4,157 4,398 3,036 1,332 1,640

2065 4,180 4,417 3,053 1,339 1,661

2070 4,202 4,480 3,067 1,346 1,688

2075 4,218 4,562 3,078 1,353 1,708
56

2080 4,230 4,627 3,088 1,359 1,719

Alternative and 

calendar year Births Deaths Marriages Divorces Widowings

High Cost Alternative :

1995 3,998 2,397 2,389 1,253 1,000

1996 3,938 2,425 2,516 1,246 1,023

1997 3,884 2,436 2,578 1,245 1,029

1998 3,834 2,449 2,643 1,231 1,035

1999 3,790 2,471 2,703 1,219 1,046

2000 3,750 2,492 2,762 1,213 1,055

2005 3,620 2,550 3,031 1,211 1,080

2010 3,595 2,615 3,277 1,235 1,118

2015 3,518 2,730 3,445 1,272 1,195

2020 3,345 2,879 3,481 1,299 1,299

2025 3,236 3,073 3,281 1,330 1,421

2030 3,141 3,311 3,161 1,334 1,539

2035 3,060 3,570 3,087 1,324 1,637

2040 2,983 3,805 3,004 1,303 1,702

2045 2,901 3,975 2,914 1,274 1,734

2050 2,815 4,059 2,835 1,244 1,741

2055 2,735 4,063 2,764 1,217 1,736

2060 2,665 4,025 2,698 1,190 1,732

2065 2,601 3,995 2,632 1,164 1,739

2070 2,538 4,004 2,567 1,139 1,752

2075 2,476 4,043 2,502 1,114 1,759

2080 2,415 4,077 2,441 1,090 1,748

Table 20.—Selected Vital Events in the Social Security Area by 

Calendar Year and Alternative (Cont.)

(In thousands)
57

III. Results

A. Total Population

Table 21 displays the resulting Social Security Area population by age group, sex, marital status, and 

alternative as of January 1 for selected years. The past and projected total population is shown graphically in Figure 4. Under the low cost alternative (with greater-than-replacement fertility), the total population increases rapidly from 272 million in 1995 to 488 million in 2080. Under the intermediate 

alternative, the total population increases gradually to 381 million in 2080. Under the high cost alternative, the total population increases to 328 million in 2040 and then decreases to 304 million in 2080, due 

to the compounding effect of below-replacement fertility which is only partially offset by the positive 

net immigration.

 Figure 4.—Social Security Area Population

(in millions), 1940-2080

Actual and Projected by Alternative

Calendar Year

High Cost

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

Low Cost

Intermediate
58

Table 21a.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, for Selected Historical Calendar Years 1970-1995 

(in thousands)

Historical

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

1970:

0-4 18,216 9,309 9,309 0 0 0 8,907 8,907 0 0 0

5-9 21,050 10,739 10,739 0 0 0 10,311 10,311 0 0 0

10-14 21,519 10,978 10,975 2 0 0 10,541 10,533 8 0 0

15-19 19,769 10,071 9,692 375 1 3 9,698 8,540 1,136 2 20

20-24 17,762 9,005 5,027 3,873 2 102 8,758 3,126 5,400 24 207

25-29 14,408 7,259 1,482 5,595 7 176 7,149 745 6,083 28 293

30-34 12,177 6,110 640 5,277 11 181 6,066 361 5,398 43 264

35-39 11,787 5,894 487 5,206 26 175 5,893 307 5,196 103 287

40-44 12,582 6,255 470 5,530 52 203 6,327 301 5,497 203 326

45-49 12,764 6,299 492 5,491 89 227 6,464 305 5,463 377 319

50-54 11,512 5,637 452 4,853 129 204 5,875 299 4,707 594 275

55-59 10,439 5,015 400 4,285 164 167 5,423 333 3,903 941 246

60-64 8,936 4,181 337 3,499 217 129 4,755 330 2,995 1,234 196

65-69 7,156 3,203 271 2,541 294 97 3,953 298 2,027 1,497 132

70-74 5,598 2,363 196 1,744 359 63 3,236 249 1,280 1,624 82

75-79 4,112 1,652 116 1,121 388 27 2,460 182 638 1,606 34

80-84 2,392 903 58 532 302 11 1,489 109 274 1,090 17

85-89 1,070 373 24 168 176 5 697 51 97 541 8

90-94 300 95 6 29 59 1 204 15 19 168 2

95 + 62 18 1 3 14 0 44 3 2 38 0

0-19 80,553 41,096 40,715 378 1 3 39,457 38,291 1,144 2 20

20-64 112,367 55,657 9,785 43,609 698 1,565 56,710 6,106 44,643 3,548 2,413

50-64 30,887 14,834 1,188 12,636 510 500 16,053 962 11,605 2,769 717

62-64 5,160 2,397 195 1,985 143 73 2,763 195 1,675 783 110

65 + 20,690 8,606 672 6,138 1,591 205 12,084 908 4,337 6,563 275

20-65 113,941 56,376 9,845 44,189 755 1,587 57,565 6,169 45,118 3,834 2,444

20-66 115,441 57,054 9,902 44,731 813 1,607 58,387 6,230 45,556 4,128 2,473

20-67 116,866 57,691 9,956 45,237 872 1,626 59,175 6,289 45,959 4,428 2,499

20-68 118,226 58,292 10,008 45,709 932 1,644 59,934 6,347 46,330 4,734 2,523

20-69 119,523 58,860 10,057 46,150 992 1,661 60,663 6,404 46,670 5,044 2,545

66 + 19,116 7,887 612 5,557 1,535 183 11,228 846 3,862 6,277 244

67 + 17,616 7,209 556 5,015 1,476 163 10,407 785 3,423 5,983 216

68 + 16,190 6,572 501 4,510 1,417 143 9,618 725 3,020 5,683 189

69 + 14,831 5,971 450 4,038 1,357 125 8,860 667 2,650 5,377 165

70 + 13,534 5,403 401 3,597 1,297 108 8,131 611 2,310 5,067 143

Total 213,610 105,359 51,173 50,124 2,290 1,772 108,251 45,306 50,124 10,113 2,708
59

Historical

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

1975:

0-4 17,266 8,845 8,845 0 0 0 8,421 8,421 0 0 0

5-9 18,438 9,416 9,416 0 0 0 9,022 9,022 0 0 0

10-14 21,303 10,871 10,869 2 0 0 10,432 10,423 9 0 0

15-19 21,839 11,142 10,742 394 3 4 10,696 9,466 1,188 5 38

20-24 20,034 10,176 6,139 3,865 8 162 9,858 3,931 5,546 29 353

25-29 17,939 9,045 2,084 6,561 12 389 8,894 1,194 7,100 48 552

30-34 14,520 7,294 875 6,027 12 380 7,226 510 6,149 74 493

35-39 12,216 6,119 564 5,214 17 325 6,098 306 5,231 121 440

40-44 11,709 5,837 454 5,034 37 312 5,873 266 4,987 209 411

45-49 12,359 6,108 429 5,273 83 322 6,251 279 5,152 395 424

50-54 12,372 6,046 407 5,186 144 309 6,326 288 4,971 663 403

55-59 10,961 5,275 358 4,470 191 256 5,686 276 4,157 933 320

60-64 9,679 4,518 283 3,791 247 197 5,161 267 3,398 1,248 248

65-69 7,959 3,560 169 2,987 279 125 4,399 244 2,409 1,580 167

70-74 6,052 2,538 104 2,080 283 72 3,514 201 1,521 1,691 100

75-79 4,346 1,676 90 1,278 283 25 2,670 153 783 1,683 50

80-84 2,801 1,003 58 696 238 10 1,799 103 372 1,297 26

85-89 1,305 430 25 233 168 4 876 50 136 676 13

90-94 427 127 8 47 71 1 301 17 32 247 4

95 + 88 23 1 4 17 0 65 4 3 57 1

0-19 78,847 40,275 39,872 397 3 4 38,572 37,331 1,197 5 38

20-64 121,790 60,418 11,592 45,422 750 2,653 61,373 7,317 46,690 3,721 3,645

50-64 33,013 15,840 1,047 13,448 581 763 17,173 831 12,526 2,845 972

62-64 5,634 2,612 157 2,189 156 110 3,022 158 1,922 802 139

65 + 22,980 9,356 455 7,325 1,339 237 13,623 773 5,257 7,233 361

20-65 123,529 61,211 11,632 46,089 806 2,683 62,318 7,368 47,245 4,021 3,684

20-66 125,197 61,964 11,669 46,722 862 2,710 63,233 7,418 47,763 4,331 3,721

20-67 126,791 62,677 11,703 47,320 918 2,735 64,114 7,467 48,244 4,649 3,754

20-68 128,309 63,348 11,733 47,882 974 2,758 64,961 7,515 48,689 4,973 3,784

20-69 129,750 63,978 11,761 48,409 1,029 2,779 65,772 7,561 49,099 5,301 3,812

66 + 21,241 8,563 415 6,657 1,283 207 12,678 722 4,701 6,933 322

67 + 19,573 7,810 378 6,024 1,227 180 11,763 672 4,183 6,623 286

68 + 17,979 7,097 345 5,426 1,171 155 10,882 623 3,702 6,305 252

69 + 16,461 6,426 314 4,864 1,115 132 10,036 575 3,257 5,981 222

70 + 15,020 5,796 287 4,338 1,060 111 9,224 529 2,847 5,653 194

Total 223,617 110,049 51,920 53,143 2,092 2,894 113,568 45,421 53,143 10,959 4,045

Table 21a.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, for Selected Historical Calendar Years 1970-1995 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
60

Historical

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

1980:

0-4 17,121 8,762 8,762 0 0 0 8,359 8,359 0 0 0

5-9 17,400 8,902 8,902 0 0 0 8,498 8,498 0 0 0

10-14 18,716 9,554 9,552 2 0 0 9,162 9,154 8 0 0

15-19 21,569 10,999 10,664 326 1 9 10,570 9,610 918 4 38

20-24 22,200 11,300 7,791 3,308 3 198 10,900 5,438 5,011 24 427

25-29 20,423 10,341 3,408 6,356 9 567 10,082 2,060 7,123 49 851

30-34 18,167 9,140 1,504 6,905 14 716 9,028 859 7,105 107 957

35-39 14,562 7,295 625 6,043 23 603 7,268 453 5,918 125 771

40-44 12,196 6,090 429 5,114 34 513 6,106 295 5,011 179 621

45-49 11,567 5,736 387 4,842 74 434 5,831 270 4,709 301 551

50-54 12,048 5,900 383 4,991 136 390 6,148 281 4,798 545 524

55-59 11,867 5,713 352 4,831 204 326 6,154 278 4,509 919 448

60-64 10,269 4,821 284 4,035 257 245 5,447 256 3,635 1,226 331

65-69 8,760 3,928 226 3,226 288 188 4,833 256 2,687 1,665 224

70-74 6,833 2,876 156 2,270 330 120 3,957 228 1,742 1,846 142

75-79 4,828 1,859 87 1,406 317 48 2,969 182 910 1,795 82

80-84 3,080 1,057 45 739 253 20 2,023 128 426 1,421 47

85-89 1,652 511 22 280 201 9 1,140 72 181 861 27

90-94 575 160 7 60 90 3 415 26 44 335 10

95 + 142 34 1 6 26 1 107 7 6 92 2

0-19 74,806 38,217 37,880 327 1 9 36,589 35,621 926 4 38

20-64 133,299 66,335 15,163 46,426 754 3,992 66,965 10,190 47,818 3,475 5,481

50-64 34,184 16,434 1,019 13,857 597 960 17,750 815 12,942 2,691 1,302

62-64 6,001 2,798 164 2,331 162 140 3,204 154 2,069 795 186

65 + 25,870 10,426 544 7,986 1,506 389 15,444 900 5,996 8,015 533

20-65 135,183 67,196 15,213 47,139 810 4,034 67,987 10,242 48,427 3,785 5,534

20-66 137,007 68,021 15,261 47,819 867 4,074 68,985 10,294 49,000 4,109 5,582

20-67 138,766 68,810 15,306 48,467 926 4,112 69,956 10,345 49,539 4,444 5,627

20-68 140,452 69,558 15,349 49,078 984 4,147 70,894 10,396 50,041 4,789 5,668

20-69 142,060 70,263 15,389 49,652 1,042 4,180 71,797 10,446 50,506 5,140 5,705

66 + 23,986 9,565 494 7,274 1,450 347 14,421 848 5,387 7,705 481

67 + 22,162 8,739 447 6,593 1,392 307 13,423 796 4,814 7,382 432

68 + 20,404 7,951 401 5,946 1,334 269 12,453 745 4,275 7,046 387

69 + 18,717 7,203 359 5,334 1,275 234 11,514 694 3,773 6,701 346

70 + 17,109 6,498 319 4,761 1,217 201 10,611 644 3,308 6,350 309

Total 233,975 114,977 53,588 54,740 2,260 4,390 118,998 46,711 54,740 11,494 6,053

Table 21a.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, for Selected Historical Calendar Years 1970-1995 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
61

Historical

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

1985:

0-4 18,820 9,632 9,632 0 0 0 9,188 9,188 0 0 0

5-9 17,415 8,909 8,909 0 0 0 8,505 8,505 0 0 0

10-14 17,721 9,070 9,070 1 0 0 8,651 8,648 2 0 0

15-19 19,194 9,819 9,666 149 0 4 9,374 8,759 580 4 32

20-24 22,106 11,284 8,544 2,558 7 175 10,821 6,228 4,207 20 367

25-29 22,587 11,486 4,553 6,243 11 679 11,101 2,905 7,274 60 861

30-34 20,600 10,410 2,267 7,139 14 990 10,190 1,371 7,556 95 1,168

35-39 18,186 9,131 1,042 7,099 33 957 9,055 712 7,010 137 1,196

40-44 14,488 7,238 624 5,780 32 801 7,250 385 5,639 211 1,014

45-49 12,030 5,980 443 4,894 61 582 6,050 282 4,708 287 773

50-54 11,283 5,555 356 4,635 91 473 5,729 265 4,393 479 592

55-59 11,579 5,598 366 4,664 162 405 5,981 244 4,408 762 566

60-64 11,177 5,269 334 4,352 271 312 5,908 252 3,899 1,287 470

65-69 9,343 4,239 261 3,434 331 213 5,104 238 2,863 1,681 322

70-74 7,577 3,214 193 2,487 400 133 4,364 235 1,913 2,008 207

75-79 5,501 2,129 125 1,560 381 63 3,372 218 996 2,048 111

80-84 3,496 1,199 70 798 301 29 2,297 161 451 1,627 58

85-89 1,861 552 32 286 221 13 1,309 92 193 992 33

90-94 758 198 12 70 111 5 560 39 55 451 14

95 + 205 47 3 8 35 1 158 11 7 136 4

0-19 73,149 37,431 37,277 150 0 4 35,718 35,100 582 4 32

20-64 144,036 71,951 18,530 47,364 682 5,375 72,085 12,643 49,095 3,339 7,008

50-64 34,039 16,421 1,056 13,651 524 1,190 17,618 761 12,700 2,528 1,628

62-64 6,597 3,098 195 2,552 176 176 3,498 152 2,247 833 267

65 + 28,742 11,577 697 8,642 1,780 458 17,165 994 6,478 8,943 749

20-65 146,045 72,880 18,587 48,123 745 5,425 73,165 12,692 49,744 3,646 7,083

20-66 147,977 73,765 18,642 48,842 810 5,471 74,212 12,740 50,351 3,968 7,152

20-67 149,855 74,616 18,695 49,532 877 5,513 75,239 12,788 50,926 4,308 7,217

20-68 151,651 75,422 18,744 50,181 945 5,552 76,229 12,835 51,460 4,658 7,276

20-69 153,380 76,190 18,791 50,797 1,014 5,588 77,190 12,882 51,958 5,021 7,330

66 + 26,733 10,648 639 7,883 1,718 408 16,085 946 5,830 8,636 674

67 + 24,802 9,763 584 7,164 1,653 363 15,038 898 5,222 8,314 605

68 + 22,923 8,912 532 6,474 1,586 320 14,011 850 4,647 7,974 540

69 + 21,127 8,106 482 5,825 1,518 281 13,021 803 4,114 7,624 481

70 + 19,398 7,338 436 5,209 1,449 245 12,060 756 3,615 7,261 427

Total 245,928 120,960 56,504 56,156 2,463 5,837 124,968 48,738 56,156 12,286 7,789

Table 21a.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, for Selected Historical Calendar Years 1970-1995 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
62

Historical

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

1990:

0-4 19,937 10,198 10,198 0 0 0 9,738 9,738 0 0 0

5-9 19,178 9,811 9,811 0 0 0 9,367 9,367 0 0 0

10-14 17,748 9,081 9,081 0 0 0 8,667 8,666 1 0 0

15-19 18,043 9,233 9,094 127 1 12 8,810 8,366 420 8 17

20-24 19,702 10,082 7,915 2,037 4 124 9,620 6,002 3,302 15 302

25-29 22,743 11,613 5,356 5,650 7 600 11,130 3,293 6,939 41 857

30-34 22,977 11,678 3,133 7,562 25 958 11,299 1,827 8,176 94 1,202

35-39 20,650 10,409 1,634 7,564 39 1,171 10,241 988 7,667 160 1,427

40-44 18,090 9,056 916 7,011 49 1,079 9,034 626 6,792 243 1,374

45-49 14,320 7,125 581 5,646 70 828 7,195 421 5,421 295 1,058

50-54 11,766 5,808 360 4,701 107 639 5,958 281 4,511 412 755

55-59 10,877 5,293 327 4,339 134 492 5,584 243 3,969 760 612

60-64 10,930 5,186 324 4,208 246 407 5,744 254 3,805 1,222 463

65-69 10,220 4,675 275 3,739 350 310 5,545 258 3,210 1,716 361

70-74 8,138 3,520 194 2,713 425 188 4,618 238 2,147 1,992 241

75-79 6,131 2,410 125 1,761 440 85 3,721 224 1,160 2,197 140

80-84 3,984 1,375 69 914 353 38 2,609 169 547 1,815 79

85-89 2,129 627 32 324 254 17 1,503 97 237 1,124 45

90-94 853 210 11 74 119 6 643 42 68 514 19

95 + 264 55 3 9 42 2 208 13 10 178 6

0-19 74,906 38,324 38,184 127 1 12 36,583 36,137 421 8 17

20-64 152,056 76,250 20,548 48,719 683 6,300 75,806 13,934 50,581 3,241 8,049

50-64 33,574 16,287 1,012 13,248 487 1,539 17,286 778 12,285 2,394 1,829

62-64 6,515 3,063 191 2,478 162 232 3,452 154 2,245 793 260

65 + 31,719 12,872 708 9,535 1,983 646 18,847 1,041 7,379 9,536 891

20-65 154,196 77,241 20,608 49,517 746 6,370 76,954 13,986 51,286 3,553 8,130

20-66 156,271 78,197 20,665 50,283 812 6,436 78,075 14,038 51,953 3,879 8,205

20-67 158,289 79,118 20,720 51,020 882 6,497 79,171 14,089 52,587 4,219 8,276

20-68 160,337 80,049 20,774 51,762 957 6,556 80,288 14,142 53,214 4,586 8,346

20-69 162,276 80,925 20,823 52,459 1,033 6,610 81,351 14,192 53,792 4,957 8,410

66 + 29,579 11,880 648 8,737 1,920 575 17,698 989 6,675 9,224 811

67 + 27,503 10,925 591 7,971 1,854 510 16,578 937 6,007 8,898 735

68 + 25,485 10,004 537 7,234 1,785 449 15,481 886 5,373 8,558 664

69 + 23,438 9,073 483 6,492 1,709 389 14,365 834 4,747 8,190 594

70 + 21,499 8,197 433 5,795 1,633 336 13,302 783 4,169 7,820 530

Total 258,681 127,446 59,440 58,381 2,667 6,958 131,235 51,112 58,381 12,785 8,957

Table 21a.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, for Selected Historical Calendar Years 1970-1995 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
63

Historical

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

1995:

0-4 20,888 10,684 10,684 0 0 0 10,204 10,204 0 0 0

5-9 20,232 10,354 10,354 0 0 0 9,878 9,878 0 0 0

10-14 19,552 10,001 10,001 0 0 0 9,551 9,550 1 0 0

15-19 18,016 9,208 9,084 112 1 11 8,808 8,398 387 8 15

20-24 18,640 9,493 7,423 1,946 4 121 9,147 5,633 3,207 14 293

25-29 20,360 10,370 4,821 5,003 7 540 9,990 2,929 6,267 36 759

30-34 23,138 11,772 3,180 7,583 26 983 11,366 1,795 8,288 94 1,189

35-39 22,932 11,593 1,849 8,370 45 1,330 11,339 1,066 8,551 174 1,547

40-44 20,457 10,248 1,061 7,879 57 1,250 10,209 691 7,731 270 1,518

45-49 17,733 8,827 740 6,945 89 1,053 8,906 510 6,759 355 1,282

50-54 13,917 6,875 440 5,525 130 780 7,042 324 5,370 476 872

55-59 11,411 5,577 356 4,539 145 536 5,835 250 4,181 775 629

60-64 10,361 4,963 320 3,999 243 401 5,398 235 3,601 1,132 429

65-69 10,105 4,670 283 3,710 356 320 5,435 250 3,177 1,658 351

70-74 8,967 3,949 223 3,028 480 218 5,019 256 2,363 2,138 261

75-79 6,629 2,699 143 1,959 500 97 3,930 242 1,256 2,300 133

80-84 4,486 1,601 82 1,061 412 45 2,885 191 625 1,990 79

85-89 2,506 751 38 388 304 20 1,755 117 286 1,304 48

90-94 1,013 246 13 87 140 7 767 51 84 611 21

95 + 315 60 3 10 45 2 255 17 13 218 7

0-19 78,688 40,247 40,123 112 1 12 38,441 38,030 388 8 15

20-64 158,949 79,718 20,189 51,789 746 6,994 79,231 13,433 53,953 3,326 8,519

50-64 35,689 17,415 1,115 14,063 519 1,718 18,274 809 13,151 2,383 1,930

62-64 6,210 2,957 190 2,376 162 230 3,253 143 2,130 737 242

65 + 34,022 13,975 784 10,243 2,238 709 20,047 1,125 7,803 10,219 900

20-65 161,028 80,699 20,250 52,573 810 7,066 80,329 13,483 54,632 3,619 8,595

20-66 163,097 81,666 20,310 53,343 879 7,135 81,431 13,533 55,295 3,935 8,668

20-67 165,138 82,609 20,367 54,092 951 7,199 82,529 13,583 55,937 4,270 8,739

20-68 167,112 83,510 20,420 54,806 1,025 7,259 83,602 13,633 56,545 4,618 8,806

20-69 169,054 84,388 20,472 55,499 1,103 7,314 84,666 13,684 57,130 4,983 8,870

66 + 31,943 12,993 723 9,459 2,174 637 18,949 1,075 7,124 9,926 825

67 + 29,874 12,027 663 8,689 2,106 568 17,847 1,025 6,461 9,610 751

68 + 27,833 11,083 606 7,940 2,034 504 16,749 975 5,820 9,275 680

69 + 25,859 10,183 553 7,226 1,959 445 15,676 925 5,212 8,927 613

70 + 23,917 9,305 501 6,533 1,882 389 14,612 875 4,626 8,561 550

Total 271,659 133,940 61,096 62,144 2,985 7,715 137,719 52,588 62,144 13,553 9,434

Table 21a.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, for Selected Historical Calendar Years 1970-1995 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
64

Table 21b.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Low Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080

(in thousands)

Low Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2000:

0-4 19,958 10,214 10,214 0 0 0 9,745 9,745 0 0 0

5-9 21,289 10,887 10,887 0 0 0 10,402 10,402 0 0 0

10-14 20,615 10,549 10,549 0 0 0 10,066 10,065 1 0 0

15-19 19,986 10,216 10,078 134 0 4 9,770 9,270 478 0 21

20-24 18,705 9,571 7,556 1,847 1 166 9,134 5,874 2,960 8 292

25-29 19,445 9,914 4,866 4,461 6 581 9,531 3,159 5,578 29 766

30-34 20,905 10,619 3,261 6,335 13 1,011 10,285 1,837 7,214 66 1,167

35-39 23,400 11,860 2,446 8,022 35 1,356 11,540 1,371 8,469 142 1,557

40-44 23,000 11,577 1,559 8,385 67 1,567 11,423 918 8,413 255 1,836

45-49 20,392 10,165 935 7,737 94 1,400 10,227 631 7,486 385 1,724

50-54 17,531 8,672 672 6,782 140 1,078 8,860 485 6,453 526 1,396

55-59 13,598 6,653 394 5,345 188 726 6,944 313 5,022 713 897

60-64 10,938 5,264 313 4,273 217 462 5,673 243 3,760 1,056 614

65-69 9,595 4,483 270 3,543 333 336 5,112 224 3,016 1,457 414

70-74 8,950 3,987 226 3,031 468 262 4,963 229 2,425 1,980 329

75-79 7,428 3,095 156 2,214 557 167 4,333 220 1,585 2,298 230

80-84 4,918 1,832 78 1,211 477 67 3,085 186 691 2,104 105

85-89 2,782 864 31 480 326 26 1,919 120 273 1,473 53

90-94 1,160 287 9 129 140 9 873 50 104 692 27

95 + 355 67 2 19 44 2 288 14 22 240 11

0-19 81,848 41,866 41,728 134 0 4 39,982 39,482 479 0 21

20-64 167,914 84,296 22,002 53,188 760 8,346 83,618 14,832 55,356 3,180 10,250

50-64 42,067 20,589 1,379 16,401 544 2,265 21,477 1,041 15,235 2,295 2,907

62-64 6,336 3,036 182 2,461 135 256 3,301 141 2,147 671 343

65 + 35,188 14,615 772 10,628 2,345 871 20,572 1,043 8,115 10,245 1,169

20-65 169,905 85,241 22,059 53,944 817 8,421 84,664 14,877 56,003 3,438 10,346

20-66 171,807 86,137 22,114 54,657 876 8,489 85,670 14,921 56,613 3,705 10,432

20-67 173,693 87,017 22,168 55,352 941 8,555 86,677 14,965 57,211 3,989 10,512

20-68 175,595 87,897 22,220 56,044 1,013 8,620 87,698 15,010 57,799 4,300 10,589

20-69 177,508 88,779 22,273 56,731 1,092 8,682 88,730 15,056 58,372 4,637 10,664

66 + 33,197 13,670 715 9,872 2,288 796 19,526 998 7,468 9,987 1,073

67 + 31,294 12,774 660 9,159 2,228 727 18,520 954 6,858 9,721 987

68 + 29,408 11,895 607 8,463 2,163 661 17,513 910 6,260 9,436 908

69 + 27,506 11,014 554 7,772 2,092 597 16,492 865 5,672 9,125 830

70 + 25,593 10,133 502 7,085 2,012 534 15,460 819 5,099 8,788 755

Total 284,949 140,777 64,502 63,950 3,105 9,220 144,173 55,357 63,950 13,425 11,440
65

Low Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2005:

0-4 20,344 10,412 10,412 0 0 0 9,933 9,933 0 0 0

5-9 20,383 10,429 10,429 0 0 0 9,954 9,954 0 0 0

10-14 21,696 11,095 11,095 0 0 0 10,601 10,600 1 0 0

15-19 21,066 10,773 10,637 133 0 4 10,293 9,791 479 0 22

20-24 20,707 10,594 8,464 1,951 1 178 10,112 6,637 3,139 6 329

25-29 19,582 10,031 5,067 4,354 4 606 9,551 3,445 5,315 24 768

30-34 20,055 10,201 3,369 5,824 11 997 9,854 2,038 6,620 57 1,139

35-39 21,226 10,743 2,544 6,907 24 1,267 10,483 1,408 7,521 110 1,444

40-44 23,498 11,862 2,081 8,130 57 1,594 11,637 1,178 8,398 219 1,843

45-49 22,933 11,494 1,392 8,280 103 1,718 11,440 839 8,185 372 2,044

50-54 20,164 9,995 857 7,569 151 1,419 10,169 601 7,187 558 1,822

55-59 17,128 8,400 609 6,569 215 1,007 8,728 465 6,071 786 1,406

60-64 13,040 6,293 350 5,045 270 628 6,747 302 4,533 1,042 870

65-69 10,144 4,773 266 3,799 322 386 5,371 233 3,158 1,399 581

70-74 8,500 3,839 216 2,905 445 273 4,661 206 2,294 1,780 381

75-79 7,406 3,132 159 2,217 558 197 4,274 197 1,609 2,184 284

80-84 5,484 2,092 85 1,364 535 108 3,392 168 867 2,181 177

85-89 3,018 974 29 564 344 37 2,044 116 295 1,564 69

90-94 1,267 322 7 136 167 11 946 52 78 788 29

95 + 389 74 1 24 45 3 316 13 21 267 14

0-19 83,489 42,709 42,573 133 0 4 40,780 40,277 480 0 22

20-64 178,334 89,613 24,732 54,628 839 9,415 88,720 16,912 56,969 3,175 11,664

50-64 50,332 24,688 1,815 19,182 637 3,054 25,644 1,368 17,792 2,386 4,098

62-64 7,410 3,563 190 2,863 164 345 3,848 168 2,555 647 478

65 + 36,209 15,206 763 11,009 2,417 1,016 21,004 984 8,320 10,164 1,535

20-65 180,529 90,659 24,789 55,466 899 9,504 89,870 16,963 57,678 3,433 11,797

20-66 182,654 91,665 24,845 56,270 962 9,588 90,989 17,011 58,351 3,703 11,923

20-67 184,671 92,614 24,898 57,028 1,025 9,663 92,056 17,057 58,979 3,980 12,040

20-68 186,591 93,511 24,948 57,739 1,091 9,734 93,080 17,101 59,564 4,268 12,147

20-69 188,478 94,387 24,998 58,427 1,161 9,801 94,091 17,145 60,127 4,574 12,245

66 + 34,014 14,160 706 10,171 2,357 926 19,854 934 7,611 9,906 1,403

67 + 31,890 13,154 651 9,367 2,294 843 18,735 886 6,938 9,636 1,276

68 + 29,873 12,205 598 8,609 2,231 767 17,668 840 6,311 9,358 1,159

69 + 27,952 11,308 547 7,898 2,165 697 16,644 796 5,725 9,071 1,053

70 + 26,065 10,432 498 7,210 2,095 630 15,633 752 5,163 8,764 954

Total 298,032 147,528 68,068 65,770 3,256 10,435 150,504 58,174 65,770 13,339 13,221

Table 21b.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Low Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
66

Low Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2010:

0-4 21,393 10,949 10,949 0 0 0 10,444 10,444 0 0 0

5-9 20,770 10,628 10,628 0 0 0 10,142 10,142 0 0 0

10-14 20,793 10,639 10,639 0 0 0 10,154 10,153 1 0 0

15-19 22,145 11,318 11,179 135 0 4 10,828 10,317 487 0 23

20-24 21,784 11,149 9,016 1,949 1 183 10,635 7,138 3,149 6 342

25-29 21,577 11,049 5,818 4,559 4 668 10,528 4,052 5,584 24 868

30-34 20,194 10,319 3,550 5,730 10 1,028 9,875 2,283 6,381 52 1,158

35-39 20,384 10,329 2,653 6,420 22 1,235 10,055 1,580 6,974 100 1,401

40-44 21,353 10,763 2,172 7,093 44 1,454 10,590 1,208 7,519 179 1,683

45-49 23,439 11,782 1,868 8,065 93 1,755 11,657 1,076 8,195 333 2,053

50-54 22,673 11,303 1,286 8,118 164 1,735 11,370 798 7,877 553 2,141

55-59 19,697 9,687 782 7,335 239 1,330 10,011 577 6,789 831 1,813

60-64 16,417 7,952 545 6,201 325 880 8,465 445 5,513 1,157 1,351

65-69 12,085 5,715 300 4,489 398 529 6,370 287 3,818 1,447 819

70-74 8,985 4,100 214 3,119 452 314 4,885 213 2,405 1,742 525

75-79 7,024 3,021 153 2,128 535 205 4,003 177 1,508 1,995 324

80-84 5,448 2,112 87 1,359 542 124 3,335 151 861 2,109 214

85-89 3,334 1,098 31 628 384 55 2,236 104 360 1,658 114

90-94 1,344 352 6 165 166 15 992 49 83 823 37

95 + 407 78 1 21 53 4 329 13 12 289 15

0-19 85,101 43,534 43,395 135 0 4 41,567 41,056 488 0 23

20-64 187,518 94,334 27,691 55,471 903 10,269 93,185 19,157 57,981 3,236 12,810

50-64 58,788 28,941 2,613 21,654 728 3,946 29,846 1,821 20,179 2,542 5,304

62-64 9,360 4,518 297 3,537 199 485 4,843 248 3,127 710 757

65 + 38,628 16,476 791 11,909 2,530 1,246 22,152 993 9,046 10,064 2,049

20-65 190,153 95,591 27,763 56,461 978 10,389 94,562 19,223 58,833 3,508 12,998

20-66 192,798 96,849 27,830 57,449 1,061 10,509 95,949 19,286 59,680 3,801 13,183

20-67 195,293 98,029 27,889 58,375 1,145 10,621 97,263 19,343 60,472 4,098 13,351

20-68 197,521 99,076 27,941 59,197 1,223 10,714 98,445 19,395 61,166 4,387 13,497

20-69 199,604 100,049 27,991 59,960 1,300 10,798 99,555 19,444 61,799 4,683 13,629

66 + 35,994 15,219 719 10,919 2,455 1,126 20,775 928 8,194 9,792 1,861

67 + 33,348 13,961 652 9,931 2,372 1,005 19,387 865 7,347 9,499 1,676

68 + 30,854 12,781 593 9,005 2,288 894 18,073 808 6,555 9,202 1,508

69 + 28,625 11,734 541 8,182 2,210 801 16,892 755 5,861 8,912 1,362

70 + 26,543 10,761 491 7,420 2,133 717 15,781 706 5,228 8,617 1,230

Total 311,247 154,344 71,877 67,515 3,433 11,519 156,904 61,207 67,515 13,300 14,882

Table 21b.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Low Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
67

Low Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2015:

0-4 22,787 11,663 11,663 0 0 0 11,124 11,124 0 0 0

5-9 21,819 11,166 11,166 0 0 0 10,654 10,654 0 0 0

10-14 21,180 10,838 10,838 0 0 0 10,342 10,341 1 0 0

15-19 21,246 10,864 10,738 122 0 4 10,382 9,905 454 0 22

20-24 22,862 11,692 9,560 1,941 1 191 11,169 7,625 3,178 6 361

25-29 22,653 11,603 6,315 4,585 4 698 11,050 4,481 5,630 24 915

30-34 22,179 11,330 4,175 6,001 10 1,144 10,849 2,781 6,696 54 1,319

35-39 20,525 10,447 2,815 6,340 19 1,273 10,078 1,791 6,760 93 1,434

40-44 20,523 10,357 2,275 6,631 39 1,411 10,166 1,363 7,010 165 1,629

45-49 21,331 10,708 1,955 7,089 75 1,588 10,623 1,104 7,372 283 1,864

50-54 23,183 11,594 1,733 7,932 154 1,776 11,588 1,024 7,904 511 2,149

55-59 22,148 10,959 1,182 7,884 260 1,633 11,189 766 7,459 842 2,122

60-64 18,876 9,175 705 6,930 368 1,172 9,701 550 6,187 1,231 1,732

65-69 15,201 7,226 470 5,518 491 747 7,975 418 4,671 1,627 1,259

70-74 10,697 4,915 243 3,687 554 432 5,781 261 2,924 1,861 735

75-79 7,431 3,236 152 2,292 557 236 4,195 182 1,589 1,981 442

80-84 5,160 2,037 83 1,308 518 128 3,123 136 798 1,946 243

85-89 3,304 1,106 32 624 388 62 2,198 94 348 1,619 137

90-94 1,476 393 6 181 185 21 1,083 43 97 883 59

95 + 425 83 1 25 53 5 341 12 13 298 19

0-19 87,033 44,531 44,405 122 0 4 42,501 42,024 454 0 22

20-64 194,279 97,866 30,715 55,333 931 10,887 96,414 21,485 58,194 3,209 13,526

50-64 64,207 31,729 3,620 22,746 782 4,581 32,478 2,341 21,550 2,584 6,004

62-64 10,870 5,261 382 4,002 227 650 5,609 313 3,539 760 997

65 + 43,693 18,997 987 13,634 2,746 1,630 24,697 1,146 10,441 10,215 2,895

20-65 197,638 99,478 30,827 56,563 1,025 11,062 98,160 21,580 59,245 3,525 13,811

20-66 200,893 101,032 30,932 57,749 1,125 11,226 99,861 21,670 60,254 3,852 14,085

20-67 204,184 102,598 31,035 58,939 1,233 11,390 101,586 21,759 61,262 4,202 14,363

20-68 207,069 103,962 31,119 59,981 1,334 11,527 103,107 21,836 62,139 4,533 14,599

20-69 209,481 105,092 31,185 60,851 1,422 11,634 104,389 21,903 62,865 4,836 14,786

66 + 40,335 17,385 875 12,404 2,651 1,455 22,950 1,051 9,390 9,898 2,610

67 + 37,080 15,831 770 11,218 2,552 1,291 21,249 961 8,380 9,572 2,335

68 + 33,789 14,265 667 10,028 2,443 1,127 19,524 872 7,373 9,222 2,057

69 + 30,904 12,901 582 8,986 2,343 990 18,003 795 6,496 8,890 1,822

70 + 28,492 11,771 517 8,116 2,254 883 16,721 728 5,770 8,588 1,635

Total 325,005 161,394 76,107 69,089 3,677 12,521 163,611 64,655 69,089 13,424 16,443

Table 21b.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Low Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
68

Low Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2020:

0-4 23,856 12,211 12,211 0 0 0 11,645 11,645 0 0 0

5-9 23,214 11,880 11,880 0 0 0 11,334 11,334 0 0 0

10-14 22,229 11,376 11,376 0 0 0 10,853 10,853 1 0 0

15-19 21,634 11,064 10,944 116 0 4 10,570 10,120 429 0 22

20-24 21,968 11,243 9,285 1,778 1 179 10,724 7,417 2,956 6 345

25-29 23,727 12,144 6,876 4,536 4 728 11,584 4,914 5,675 24 971

30-34 23,251 11,881 4,617 6,043 10 1,211 11,371 3,142 6,770 53 1,406

35-39 22,498 11,449 3,361 6,640 20 1,428 11,049 2,224 7,089 96 1,640

40-44 20,667 10,476 2,424 6,560 36 1,455 10,191 1,553 6,809 156 1,672

45-49 20,516 10,311 2,054 6,650 68 1,539 10,205 1,249 6,890 265 1,801

50-54 21,123 10,551 1,817 7,005 128 1,601 10,572 1,052 7,126 448 1,945

55-59 22,653 11,247 1,598 7,723 249 1,676 11,406 982 7,495 800 2,130

60-64 21,224 10,385 1,072 7,462 403 1,448 10,839 728 6,814 1,273 2,024

65-69 17,470 8,339 612 6,170 559 999 9,131 514 5,261 1,747 1,608

70-74 13,449 6,218 383 4,533 690 612 7,231 378 3,609 2,119 1,124

75-79 8,856 3,889 174 2,715 676 324 4,967 223 1,957 2,169 618

80-84 5,478 2,194 83 1,417 546 148 3,283 141 854 1,959 329

85-89 3,137 1,071 31 605 371 64 2,066 85 321 1,506 155

90-94 1,471 399 7 182 187 24 1,072 40 93 868 71

95 + 468 93 1 28 59 7 374 11 14 321 29

0-19 90,933 46,530 46,410 116 0 4 44,402 43,951 429 0 22

20-64 197,628 99,688 33,104 54,399 919 11,267 97,940 23,260 57,625 3,120 13,934

50-64 65,001 32,184 4,487 22,191 780 4,726 32,817 2,761 21,435 2,521 6,099

62-64 12,419 6,053 580 4,384 255 834 6,367 391 3,959 800 1,216

65 + 50,329 22,205 1,291 15,649 3,088 2,177 28,124 1,391 12,109 10,690 3,934

20-65 201,470 101,543 33,255 55,761 1,025 11,502 99,927 23,375 58,806 3,460 14,286

20-66 205,132 103,300 33,388 57,059 1,135 11,717 101,833 23,483 59,921 3,804 14,624

20-67 208,633 104,970 33,507 58,297 1,249 11,917 103,663 23,585 60,976 4,152 14,949

20-68 211,948 106,542 33,615 59,466 1,363 12,099 105,406 23,682 61,963 4,505 15,255

20-69 215,098 108,027 33,716 60,568 1,478 12,266 107,071 23,775 62,886 4,868 15,542

66 + 46,488 20,351 1,140 14,287 2,982 1,942 26,137 1,277 10,929 10,350 3,581

67 + 42,825 18,594 1,006 12,989 2,872 1,726 24,231 1,168 9,813 10,006 3,243

68 + 39,325 16,923 888 11,750 2,759 1,526 22,401 1,066 8,759 9,658 2,918

69 + 36,009 15,351 779 10,582 2,644 1,345 20,658 969 7,771 9,305 2,613

70 + 32,859 13,866 679 9,480 2,530 1,178 18,993 877 6,848 8,942 2,326

Total 338,890 168,423 80,805 70,164 4,007 13,447 170,466 68,603 70,164 13,810 17,890

Table 21b.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Low Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
69

Low Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2025:

0-4 24,571 12,577 12,577 0 0 0 11,994 11,994 0 0 0

5-9 24,282 12,428 12,428 0 0 0 11,855 11,855 0 0 0

10-14 23,623 12,090 12,090 0 0 0 11,533 11,533 1 0 0

15-19 22,681 11,600 11,479 117 0 4 11,081 10,630 429 0 22

20-24 22,356 11,443 9,521 1,744 1 177 10,913 7,690 2,878 5 340

25-29 22,839 11,699 6,755 4,251 4 689 11,140 4,834 5,357 22 927

30-34 24,321 12,418 5,131 6,018 10 1,260 11,903 3,507 6,858 53 1,485

35-39 23,565 11,996 3,755 6,712 19 1,510 11,569 2,534 7,199 95 1,741

40-44 22,625 11,467 2,918 6,889 37 1,624 11,158 1,944 7,153 161 1,899

45-49 20,663 10,432 2,193 6,598 63 1,579 10,231 1,425 6,710 252 1,844

50-54 20,329 10,168 1,912 6,598 116 1,542 10,161 1,191 6,675 424 1,871

55-59 20,665 10,248 1,678 6,853 211 1,506 10,417 1,010 6,767 718 1,923

60-64 21,717 10,666 1,453 7,332 390 1,491 11,052 931 6,857 1,233 2,030

65-69 19,642 9,443 935 6,658 613 1,237 10,199 677 5,811 1,835 1,875

70-74 15,452 7,178 501 5,076 784 817 8,274 464 4,085 2,295 1,430

75-79 11,147 4,931 278 3,347 846 460 6,216 322 2,450 2,503 940

80-84 6,550 2,651 98 1,688 662 203 3,899 173 1,073 2,193 460

85-89 3,355 1,166 31 664 397 74 2,189 89 351 1,539 210

90-94 1,407 390 6 179 181 24 1,016 36 85 814 81

95 + 480 98 1 28 61 8 382 10 14 322 36

0-19 95,158 48,695 48,574 117 0 4 46,463 46,012 429 0 22

20-64 199,080 100,537 35,314 52,994 851 11,378 98,543 25,066 56,453 2,964 14,061

50-64 62,711 31,082 5,043 20,783 718 4,538 31,630 3,132 20,299 2,375 5,824

62-64 13,014 6,374 826 4,410 254 884 6,639 543 4,067 791 1,239

65 + 58,032 25,856 1,850 17,640 3,543 2,823 32,176 1,771 13,869 11,502 5,034

20-65 203,266 102,571 35,541 54,419 962 11,650 100,695 25,233 57,716 3,306 14,441

20-66 207,336 104,539 35,750 55,798 1,081 11,910 102,798 25,381 58,937 3,661 14,819

20-67 211,309 106,449 35,939 57,144 1,206 12,160 104,860 25,510 60,116 4,030 15,205

20-68 215,107 108,264 36,109 58,428 1,334 12,393 106,843 25,632 61,226 4,407 15,577

20-69 218,723 109,980 36,250 59,652 1,464 12,615 108,742 25,743 62,265 4,799 15,936

66 + 53,846 23,822 1,623 16,216 3,432 2,551 30,024 1,604 12,606 11,160 4,654

67 + 49,776 21,855 1,414 14,836 3,314 2,291 27,921 1,456 11,385 10,804 4,275

68 + 45,804 19,944 1,226 13,490 3,189 2,040 25,859 1,327 10,206 10,436 3,890

69 + 42,006 18,130 1,056 12,206 3,061 1,807 23,876 1,205 9,096 10,058 3,517

70 + 38,390 16,413 915 10,983 2,930 1,586 21,977 1,094 8,058 9,666 3,159

Total 352,271 175,088 85,738 70,752 4,395 14,204 177,182 72,849 70,752 14,466 19,116

Table 21b.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Low Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
70

Low Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2030:

0-4 25,021 12,808 12,808 0 0 0 12,213 12,213 0 0 0

5-9 24,998 12,794 12,794 0 0 0 12,204 12,204 0 0 0

10-14 24,692 12,637 12,637 0 0 0 12,055 12,054 1 0 0

15-19 24,073 12,313 12,184 124 0 4 11,761 11,285 452 0 23

20-24 23,400 11,977 9,972 1,820 1 184 11,423 8,093 2,974 5 350

25-29 23,227 11,898 6,909 4,295 4 690 11,329 5,020 5,366 21 922

30-34 23,440 11,978 5,009 5,774 9 1,186 11,461 3,415 6,599 49 1,399

35-39 24,629 12,529 4,183 6,781 19 1,546 12,100 2,827 7,375 95 1,803

40-44 23,685 12,009 3,260 7,032 36 1,682 11,676 2,210 7,328 160 1,978

45-49 22,602 11,411 2,642 6,980 64 1,725 11,191 1,783 7,088 260 2,059

50-54 20,483 10,292 2,041 6,588 109 1,555 10,190 1,356 6,532 406 1,896

55-59 19,900 9,883 1,766 6,495 192 1,430 10,017 1,142 6,356 684 1,836

60-64 19,840 9,734 1,527 6,548 333 1,326 10,106 959 6,202 1,119 1,826

65-69 20,106 9,704 1,269 6,569 597 1,268 10,402 863 5,862 1,801 1,876

70-74 17,376 8,134 770 5,498 858 1,008 9,243 610 4,531 2,438 1,664

75-79 12,810 5,696 365 3,763 959 609 7,114 395 2,793 2,733 1,192

80-84 8,264 3,374 158 2,094 834 288 4,890 249 1,369 2,572 700

85-89 4,037 1,420 37 798 484 101 2,617 110 452 1,760 294

90-94 1,524 432 7 200 197 28 1,092 39 96 847 111

95 + 470 98 1 29 61 8 373 9 12 308 43

0-19 98,784 50,552 50,424 124 0 4 48,232 47,755 453 0 23

20-64 201,206 101,713 37,309 52,313 767 11,323 99,493 26,805 55,820 2,798 14,070

50-64 60,223 29,909 5,334 19,632 633 4,310 30,314 3,457 19,090 2,208 5,558

62-64 11,811 5,779 851 3,925 218 785 6,032 542 3,672 720 1,099

65 + 64,587 28,857 2,607 18,950 3,990 3,311 35,730 2,275 15,115 12,461 5,879

20-65 205,288 103,699 37,594 53,651 867 11,587 101,589 26,990 57,044 3,118 14,438

20-66 209,375 105,681 37,865 54,990 979 11,847 103,694 27,168 58,256 3,460 14,810

20-67 213,428 107,638 38,129 56,314 1,100 12,096 105,789 27,342 59,442 3,821 15,184

20-68 217,416 109,555 38,374 57,610 1,228 12,344 107,861 27,508 60,589 4,201 15,564

20-69 221,311 111,417 38,578 58,882 1,364 12,592 109,895 27,667 61,682 4,600 15,945

66 + 60,505 26,871 2,321 17,613 3,889 3,047 33,634 2,089 13,892 12,141 5,511

67 + 56,418 24,890 2,051 16,274 3,777 2,787 31,528 1,911 12,679 11,799 5,139

68 + 52,365 22,932 1,787 14,950 3,657 2,538 29,433 1,737 11,493 11,438 4,765

69 + 48,377 21,015 1,542 13,654 3,529 2,290 27,362 1,571 10,347 11,058 4,385

70 + 44,482 19,154 1,337 12,382 3,392 2,042 25,328 1,412 9,253 10,659 4,004

Total 364,576 181,122 90,339 71,388 4,756 14,638 183,454 76,834 71,388 15,259 19,972

Table 21b.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Low Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
71

Low Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2035:

0-4 25,781 13,198 13,198 0 0 0 12,584 12,584 0 0 0

5-9 25,448 13,025 13,025 0 0 0 12,423 12,423 0 0 0

10-14 25,407 13,004 13,004 0 0 0 12,403 12,403 1 0 0

15-19 25,140 12,859 12,724 131 0 4 12,281 11,781 475 0 24

20-24 24,788 12,686 10,564 1,926 1 195 12,101 8,589 3,136 6 371

25-29 24,268 12,430 7,215 4,491 4 720 11,838 5,293 5,566 21 958

30-34 23,827 12,177 5,104 5,869 9 1,195 11,650 3,541 6,658 48 1,402

35-39 23,756 12,095 4,058 6,563 18 1,456 11,661 2,729 7,149 88 1,695

40-44 24,743 12,538 3,632 7,154 36 1,716 12,204 2,461 7,551 159 2,034

45-49 23,655 11,949 2,950 7,162 64 1,772 11,706 2,023 7,298 259 2,127

50-54 22,393 11,254 2,460 7,001 111 1,681 11,139 1,695 6,925 420 2,100

55-59 20,064 10,013 1,887 6,516 180 1,430 10,052 1,299 6,241 657 1,855

60-64 19,121 9,397 1,607 6,236 304 1,250 9,725 1,084 5,832 1,070 1,739

65-69 18,395 8,871 1,335 5,901 513 1,122 9,524 890 5,307 1,643 1,684

70-74 17,794 8,365 1,047 5,447 840 1,031 9,430 773 4,581 2,414 1,662

75-79 14,414 6,463 566 4,096 1,052 749 7,951 519 3,115 2,932 1,385

80-84 9,506 3,904 210 2,367 948 379 5,602 306 1,573 2,835 887

85-89 5,120 1,821 62 999 616 144 3,299 159 587 2,104 449

90-94 1,855 533 8 243 243 39 1,321 48 127 991 156

95 + 513 110 1 32 67 9 403 10 14 322 57

0-19 101,777 52,086 51,951 131 0 4 49,691 49,191 476 0 24

20-64 206,614 104,539 39,478 52,918 727 11,416 102,076 28,713 56,355 2,728 14,280

50-64 61,578 30,663 5,953 19,753 596 4,361 30,915 4,077 18,998 2,146 5,694

62-64 11,674 5,714 974 3,780 204 755 5,960 661 3,519 710 1,070

65 + 67,597 30,068 3,228 19,086 4,281 3,474 37,530 2,706 15,303 13,241 6,279

20-65 210,465 106,411 39,793 54,149 814 11,655 104,054 28,928 57,482 3,020 14,624

20-66 214,162 108,202 40,078 55,338 907 11,880 105,960 29,103 58,570 3,328 14,959

20-67 217,779 109,947 40,330 56,508 1,009 12,100 107,832 29,277 59,617 3,650 15,288

20-68 221,376 111,673 40,566 57,668 1,121 12,318 109,703 29,439 60,646 3,996 15,622

20-69 225,010 113,410 40,813 58,819 1,241 12,537 111,600 29,603 61,662 4,371 15,964

66 + 63,747 28,195 2,913 17,854 4,194 3,234 35,551 2,491 14,177 12,949 5,935

67 + 60,050 26,404 2,628 16,666 4,101 3,010 33,646 2,315 13,089 12,642 5,600

68 + 56,433 24,660 2,375 15,496 3,999 2,790 31,773 2,141 12,041 12,319 5,271

69 + 52,836 22,933 2,139 14,336 3,887 2,571 29,903 1,980 11,012 11,973 4,937

70 + 49,202 21,196 1,893 13,184 3,767 2,352 28,006 1,816 9,997 11,598 4,595

Total 375,989 186,692 94,656 72,134 5,008 14,893 189,297 80,609 72,134 15,969 20,583

Table 21b.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Low Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
72

Low Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2040:

0-4 26,826 13,733 13,733 0 0 0 13,093 13,093 0 0 0

5-9 26,209 13,415 13,415 0 0 0 12,794 12,794 0 0 0

10-14 25,858 13,235 13,235 0 0 0 12,623 12,622 1 0 0

15-19 25,855 13,225 13,086 135 0 4 12,630 12,111 493 0 25

20-24 25,852 13,230 11,015 2,011 1 204 12,621 8,947 3,281 6 388

25-29 25,652 13,136 7,633 4,739 4 761 12,515 5,622 5,858 22 1,012

30-34 24,865 12,706 5,317 6,133 9 1,246 12,158 3,739 6,909 49 1,460

35-39 24,142 12,293 4,123 6,685 18 1,468 11,849 2,825 7,233 88 1,704

40-44 23,880 12,112 3,508 6,953 34 1,617 11,768 2,362 7,346 150 1,910

45-49 24,704 12,472 3,288 7,314 64 1,806 12,232 2,248 7,544 260 2,180

50-54 23,434 11,784 2,747 7,205 112 1,721 11,650 1,919 7,152 419 2,160

55-59 21,929 10,947 2,276 6,944 187 1,541 10,982 1,621 6,632 681 2,048

60-64 19,301 9,534 1,719 6,282 288 1,245 9,767 1,233 5,746 1,032 1,756

65-69 17,741 8,572 1,405 5,643 472 1,052 9,170 1,005 4,991 1,572 1,601

70-74 16,306 7,661 1,103 4,921 730 908 8,645 799 4,146 2,208 1,491

75-79 14,771 6,654 772 4,078 1,037 767 8,117 656 3,157 2,919 1,385

80-84 10,712 4,441 330 2,597 1,047 468 6,271 404 1,768 3,068 1,031

85-89 5,903 2,115 83 1,137 704 190 3,788 196 679 2,344 569

90-94 2,375 692 14 307 315 56 1,683 71 166 1,208 239

95 + 627 137 1 40 84 13 490 12 19 379 80

0-19 104,748 53,608 53,469 135 0 4 51,140 50,621 494 0 25

20-64 213,758 108,216 41,626 54,265 716 11,609 105,543 30,517 57,702 2,706 14,618

50-64 64,664 32,265 6,742 20,431 586 4,506 32,399 4,773 19,531 2,131 5,964

62-64 11,199 5,516 962 3,660 187 707 5,684 690 3,319 665 1,010

65 + 68,436 30,272 3,708 18,723 4,389 3,453 38,163 3,143 14,927 13,698 6,395

20-65 217,301 109,947 41,912 55,419 791 11,824 107,354 30,717 58,734 2,968 14,934

20-66 220,769 111,632 42,188 56,541 873 12,030 109,137 30,913 59,732 3,250 15,242

20-67 224,271 113,325 42,464 57,660 966 12,236 110,946 31,113 60,720 3,559 15,555

20-68 227,879 115,058 42,747 58,790 1,071 12,449 112,822 31,318 61,715 3,904 15,885

20-69 231,500 116,787 43,031 59,908 1,188 12,660 114,713 31,522 62,693 4,278 16,220

66 + 64,893 28,541 3,421 17,568 4,314 3,238 36,352 2,942 13,895 13,436 6,079

67 + 61,425 26,856 3,146 16,446 4,232 3,032 34,569 2,747 12,897 13,154 5,771

68 + 57,923 25,163 2,870 15,328 4,139 2,826 32,760 2,546 11,909 12,846 5,459

69 + 54,315 23,430 2,586 14,197 4,034 2,613 30,884 2,341 10,914 12,501 5,129

70 + 50,694 21,701 2,303 13,079 3,917 2,401 28,993 2,138 9,936 12,126 4,794

Total 386,942 192,096 98,802 73,123 5,105 15,066 194,846 84,280 73,123 16,404 21,039

Table 21b.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Low Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
73

Low Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2045:

0-4 27,899 14,282 14,282 0 0 0 13,617 13,617 0 0 0

5-9 27,254 13,950 13,950 0 0 0 13,304 13,304 0 0 0

10-14 26,619 13,625 13,625 0 0 0 12,994 12,993 1 0 0

15-19 26,306 13,457 13,315 137 0 4 12,850 12,320 504 0 26

20-24 26,565 13,596 11,316 2,069 1 210 12,970 9,175 3,389 6 401

25-29 26,713 13,678 7,950 4,931 4 793 13,035 5,845 6,111 23 1,056

30-34 26,242 13,408 5,625 6,457 9 1,316 12,834 3,978 7,262 51 1,543

35-39 25,175 12,819 4,291 6,980 18 1,530 12,356 2,984 7,506 90 1,776

40-44 24,266 12,310 3,557 7,088 34 1,631 11,956 2,441 7,442 149 1,924

45-49 23,855 12,055 3,167 7,123 61 1,704 11,800 2,151 7,355 246 2,047

50-54 24,470 12,300 3,061 7,375 113 1,751 12,170 2,131 7,408 423 2,208

55-59 22,952 11,467 2,544 7,161 188 1,575 11,485 1,834 6,866 683 2,102

60-64 21,095 10,427 2,077 6,711 300 1,340 10,669 1,535 6,122 1,073 1,938

65-69 17,938 8,716 1,508 5,711 451 1,046 9,223 1,144 4,938 1,522 1,618

70-74 15,739 7,410 1,160 4,725 676 849 8,329 902 3,898 2,111 1,417

75-79 13,565 6,110 816 3,709 909 677 7,454 680 2,858 2,673 1,244

80-84 10,991 4,580 454 2,605 1,041 481 6,411 509 1,800 3,068 1,033

85-89 6,670 2,417 134 1,261 786 236 4,254 260 770 2,560 663

90-94 2,751 810 19 353 364 74 1,942 87 192 1,359 304

95 + 812 180 2 50 110 18 632 18 25 468 121

0-19 108,078 55,314 55,172 138 0 4 52,764 52,233 505 0 26

20-64 221,335 112,060 43,588 55,896 727 11,849 109,275 32,074 59,461 2,745 14,995

50-64 68,518 34,194 7,682 21,247 600 4,666 34,324 5,500 20,397 2,179 6,248

62-64 12,479 6,151 1,203 3,970 197 781 6,327 896 3,584 701 1,147

65 + 68,467 30,224 4,092 18,414 4,336 3,381 38,243 3,601 14,481 13,761 6,400

20-65 225,249 113,977 43,942 57,144 805 12,086 111,271 32,340 60,563 3,015 15,353

20-66 228,965 115,791 44,262 58,334 888 12,307 113,174 32,582 61,601 3,300 15,691

20-67 232,545 117,531 44,562 59,476 978 12,515 115,015 32,809 62,587 3,605 16,014

20-68 235,973 119,188 44,837 60,566 1,074 12,711 116,785 33,019 63,518 3,927 16,321

20-69 239,274 120,776 45,095 61,606 1,178 12,895 118,498 33,219 64,399 4,267 16,613

66 + 64,553 28,306 3,738 17,166 4,259 3,144 36,247 3,335 13,380 13,491 6,041

67 + 60,837 26,493 3,418 15,976 4,176 2,924 34,345 3,093 12,342 13,206 5,704

68 + 57,257 24,753 3,118 14,834 4,086 2,715 32,504 2,866 11,356 12,902 5,381

69 + 53,829 23,096 2,843 13,744 3,989 2,519 30,734 2,656 10,425 12,580 5,074

70 + 50,528 21,508 2,585 12,703 3,885 2,335 29,021 2,456 9,544 12,239 4,782

Total 397,880 197,598 102,852 74,447 5,063 15,235 200,282 87,908 74,447 16,506 21,420

Table 21b.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Low Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
74

Low Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2050:

0-4 28,805 14,747 14,747 0 0 0 14,059 14,059 0 0 0

5-9 28,327 14,500 14,500 0 0 0 13,827 13,827 0 0 0

10-14 27,664 14,160 14,160 0 0 0 13,503 13,503 1 0 0

15-19 27,066 13,846 13,701 141 0 4 13,220 12,678 516 0 26

20-24 27,016 13,827 11,507 2,106 1 214 13,189 9,319 3,456 6 408

25-29 27,425 14,042 8,164 5,060 4 814 13,383 5,976 6,296 23 1,087

30-34 27,300 13,947 5,861 6,706 10 1,370 13,353 4,130 7,563 53 1,607

35-39 26,546 13,515 4,543 7,338 19 1,616 13,030 3,178 7,882 93 1,877

40-44 25,293 12,831 3,701 7,396 35 1,700 12,462 2,580 7,721 153 2,008

45-49 24,241 12,253 3,209 7,265 61 1,719 11,988 2,222 7,456 246 2,064

50-54 23,643 11,896 2,945 7,193 107 1,651 11,746 2,037 7,233 404 2,073

55-59 23,969 11,972 2,836 7,343 190 1,603 11,997 2,034 7,122 695 2,146

60-64 22,091 10,930 2,323 6,935 303 1,370 11,160 1,737 6,353 1,083 1,988

65-69 19,606 9,535 1,823 6,113 473 1,126 10,071 1,423 5,274 1,590 1,784

70-74 15,942 7,553 1,250 4,804 655 845 8,389 1,028 3,874 2,053 1,433

75-79 13,106 5,918 857 3,579 848 633 7,187 766 2,686 2,552 1,183

80-84 10,126 4,223 483 2,392 921 428 5,903 529 1,632 2,810 932

85-89 6,860 2,500 187 1,279 790 245 4,359 328 791 2,573 668

90-94 3,126 932 32 397 411 92 2,194 118 219 1,501 355

95 + 966 217 2 59 131 25 749 23 29 539 159

0-19 111,862 57,252 57,107 141 0 4 54,609 54,066 516 0 26

20-64 227,523 115,215 45,089 57,342 729 12,055 112,309 33,212 61,083 2,757 15,257

50-64 69,702 34,799 8,104 21,471 600 4,623 34,904 5,807 20,708 2,182 6,206

62-64 12,926 6,379 1,320 4,074 198 787 6,547 994 3,688 702 1,164

65 + 69,732 30,879 4,634 18,622 4,229 3,394 38,853 4,215 14,506 13,618 6,514

20-65 231,629 117,228 45,488 58,636 807 12,297 114,401 33,517 62,226 3,030 15,629

20-66 235,641 119,187 45,868 59,895 893 12,531 116,454 33,810 63,326 3,324 15,993

20-67 239,597 121,111 46,238 61,127 988 12,758 118,486 34,099 64,389 3,644 16,354

20-68 243,427 122,966 46,586 62,314 1,091 12,975 120,461 34,374 65,400 3,985 16,703

20-69 247,129 124,750 46,912 63,454 1,202 13,181 122,380 34,635 66,357 4,347 17,041

66 + 65,626 28,865 4,235 17,328 4,150 3,152 36,761 3,911 13,362 13,345 6,143

67 + 61,614 26,906 3,855 16,069 4,064 2,918 34,708 3,617 12,262 13,051 5,778

68 + 57,658 24,982 3,485 14,837 3,969 2,691 32,676 3,328 11,199 12,731 5,418

69 + 53,828 23,128 3,137 13,650 3,867 2,474 30,701 3,053 10,189 12,390 5,068

70 + 50,126 21,344 2,810 12,510 3,756 2,268 28,782 2,792 9,231 12,028 4,731

Total 409,117 203,346 106,830 76,105 4,958 15,453 205,771 91,493 76,105 16,376 21,797

Table 21b.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Low Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
75

Low Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2055:

0-4 29,601 15,154 15,154 0 0 0 14,447 14,447 0 0 0

5-9 29,233 14,964 14,964 0 0 0 14,269 14,269 0 0 0

10-14 28,736 14,710 14,710 0 0 0 14,027 14,026 1 0 0

15-19 28,110 14,380 14,230 146 0 5 13,730 13,169 533 0 27

20-24 27,775 14,215 11,832 2,163 1 219 13,560 9,592 3,543 6 418

25-29 27,875 14,273 8,290 5,151 4 828 13,602 6,055 6,418 23 1,105

30-34 28,010 14,310 6,020 6,874 10 1,406 13,700 4,214 7,782 54 1,650

35-39 27,598 14,051 4,738 7,611 20 1,682 13,547 3,298 8,200 96 1,954

40-44 26,655 13,522 3,923 7,768 36 1,796 13,133 2,749 8,104 159 2,122

45-49 25,261 12,770 3,338 7,577 62 1,793 12,491 2,348 7,735 253 2,156

50-54 24,029 12,095 2,984 7,339 106 1,666 11,934 2,103 7,335 406 2,091

55-59 23,173 11,587 2,727 7,171 181 1,509 11,586 1,944 6,960 668 2,013

60-64 23,075 11,417 2,592 7,122 308 1,395 11,658 1,925 6,598 1,107 2,028

65-69 20,546 10,006 2,043 6,329 481 1,152 10,540 1,609 5,488 1,614 1,830

70-74 17,428 8,268 1,513 5,153 691 910 9,161 1,277 4,153 2,151 1,580

75-79 13,316 6,058 930 3,662 831 634 7,258 876 2,689 2,492 1,201

80-84 9,799 4,099 506 2,324 866 402 5,700 596 1,537 2,678 888

85-89 6,354 2,321 201 1,190 709 220 4,033 343 722 2,361 606

90-94 3,229 970 46 409 419 97 2,259 149 228 1,522 360

95 + 1,117 254 4 68 151 31 863 32 33 606 191

0-19 115,681 59,208 59,058 146 0 5 56,472 55,911 534 0 27

20-64 233,452 118,240 46,442 58,777 728 12,294 115,212 34,227 62,675 2,772 15,537

50-64 70,277 35,099 8,302 21,632 595 4,570 35,178 5,971 20,893 2,181 6,132

62-64 13,814 6,816 1,533 4,255 204 824 6,997 1,154 3,897 727 1,219

65 + 71,788 31,975 5,244 19,136 4,148 3,447 39,813 4,882 14,850 13,424 6,657

20-65 237,863 120,405 46,908 60,139 809 12,549 117,457 34,586 63,887 3,055 15,929

20-66 242,091 122,473 47,338 61,448 897 12,790 119,618 34,921 65,036 3,356 16,304

20-67 246,173 124,461 47,741 62,710 993 13,018 121,712 35,238 66,130 3,677 16,667

20-68 250,138 126,384 48,122 63,929 1,096 13,236 123,754 35,542 67,171 4,020 17,021

20-69 253,998 128,247 48,485 65,107 1,209 13,446 125,752 35,836 68,163 4,385 17,367

66 + 67,378 29,810 4,778 17,774 4,066 3,192 37,568 4,523 13,638 13,141 6,266

67 + 63,150 27,742 4,348 16,465 3,978 2,951 35,407 4,188 12,489 12,840 5,890

68 + 59,067 25,754 3,945 15,203 3,883 2,723 33,313 3,871 11,396 12,519 5,527

69 + 55,102 23,832 3,564 13,984 3,779 2,504 31,271 3,567 10,354 12,177 5,173

70 + 51,242 21,969 3,201 12,806 3,667 2,295 29,273 3,273 9,362 11,811 4,827

Total 420,921 209,424 110,744 78,059 4,875 15,745 211,497 95,020 78,059 16,196 22,222

Table 21b.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Low Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
76

Low Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2060:

0-4 30,432 15,580 15,580 0 0 0 14,852 14,852 0 0 0

5-9 30,029 15,372 15,372 0 0 0 14,657 14,657 0 0 0

10-14 29,643 15,174 15,174 0 0 0 14,469 14,468 1 0 0

15-19 29,181 14,929 14,772 152 0 5 14,253 13,671 553 0 28

20-24 28,816 14,748 12,277 2,243 1 227 14,068 9,965 3,664 6 433

25-29 28,633 14,660 8,510 5,295 4 850 13,972 6,232 6,583 24 1,134

30-34 28,460 14,540 6,102 7,000 10 1,429 13,920 4,259 7,931 54 1,676

35-39 28,306 14,412 4,867 7,799 20 1,726 13,894 3,360 8,433 97 2,004

40-44 27,702 14,053 4,094 8,052 37 1,870 13,649 2,852 8,427 163 2,207

45-49 26,613 13,454 3,541 7,954 65 1,894 13,159 2,502 8,116 261 2,279

50-54 25,039 12,606 3,105 7,654 109 1,738 12,433 2,222 7,610 416 2,185

55-59 23,559 11,786 2,763 7,320 180 1,523 11,773 2,006 7,061 672 2,033

60-64 22,330 11,063 2,492 6,964 293 1,313 11,267 1,841 6,453 1,071 1,902

65-69 21,466 10,456 2,281 6,509 491 1,175 11,010 1,782 5,704 1,657 1,866

70-74 18,280 8,687 1,700 5,347 707 933 9,593 1,444 4,334 2,193 1,621

75-79 14,568 6,638 1,130 3,941 883 684 7,930 1,088 2,897 2,620 1,324

80-84 10,006 4,225 558 2,400 860 407 5,781 686 1,557 2,630 908

85-89 6,163 2,260 210 1,168 673 209 3,903 386 686 2,250 581

90-94 3,017 909 50 389 382 88 2,108 158 213 1,406 330

95 + 1,184 271 6 72 158 35 914 41 35 634 204

0-19 119,285 61,055 60,898 152 0 5 58,231 57,648 554 0 28

20-64 239,457 121,322 47,752 60,281 719 12,570 118,135 35,239 64,278 2,765 15,854

50-64 70,928 35,455 8,361 21,938 583 4,574 35,473 6,069 21,124 2,159 6,121

62-64 13,254 6,550 1,463 4,129 193 765 6,704 1,085 3,790 700 1,129

65 + 74,684 33,447 5,934 19,826 4,155 3,531 41,238 5,586 15,427 13,391 6,834

20-65 243,846 123,478 48,230 61,632 799 12,817 120,368 35,601 65,492 3,045 16,231

20-66 248,193 125,605 48,698 62,962 887 13,058 122,588 35,959 66,673 3,350 16,607

20-67 252,503 127,705 49,157 64,269 985 13,293 124,799 36,317 67,819 3,681 16,981

20-68 256,762 129,769 49,604 65,549 1,093 13,523 126,993 36,674 68,926 4,039 17,354

20-69 260,923 131,779 50,033 66,790 1,211 13,746 129,145 37,021 69,982 4,422 17,720

66 + 70,296 31,291 5,456 18,475 4,075 3,285 39,004 5,224 14,213 13,111 6,457

67 + 65,948 29,164 4,988 17,145 3,987 3,044 36,784 4,865 13,032 12,806 6,081

68 + 61,638 27,064 4,529 15,838 3,889 2,809 34,574 4,507 11,886 12,474 5,706

69 + 57,379 25,000 4,082 14,558 3,781 2,578 32,379 4,151 10,779 12,116 5,333

70 + 53,218 22,990 3,653 13,317 3,664 2,356 30,228 3,804 9,723 11,734 4,968

Total 433,427 215,824 114,584 80,259 4,874 16,107 217,603 98,473 80,259 16,156 22,716

Table 21b.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Low Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
77

Low Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2065:

0-4 31,377 16,064 16,064 0 0 0 15,313 15,313 0 0 0

5-9 30,860 15,797 15,797 0 0 0 15,063 15,063 0 0 0

10-14 30,439 15,582 15,582 0 0 0 14,857 14,856 1 0 0

15-19 30,087 15,393 15,231 157 0 5 14,694 14,093 572 0 29

20-24 29,885 15,294 12,732 2,326 1 236 14,591 10,337 3,798 6 449

25-29 29,671 15,191 8,819 5,486 4 881 14,480 6,476 6,806 24 1,174

30-34 29,215 14,926 6,255 7,194 10 1,466 14,289 4,380 8,135 55 1,720

35-39 28,755 14,641 4,927 7,942 20 1,752 14,114 3,390 8,593 98 2,033

40-44 28,407 14,412 4,206 8,250 38 1,919 13,995 2,904 8,664 165 2,262

45-49 27,653 13,981 3,698 8,244 66 1,973 13,671 2,596 8,439 268 2,369

50-54 26,375 13,281 3,296 8,033 114 1,838 13,094 2,368 7,986 430 2,310

55-59 24,553 12,288 2,878 7,635 185 1,590 12,265 2,120 7,329 689 2,126

60-64 22,715 11,262 2,527 7,116 293 1,325 11,454 1,901 6,552 1,079 1,922

65-69 20,796 10,145 2,195 6,375 470 1,106 10,650 1,705 5,584 1,609 1,752

70-74 19,106 9,084 1,900 5,507 724 953 10,022 1,599 4,510 2,259 1,654

75-79 15,304 6,990 1,274 4,102 909 705 8,314 1,232 3,037 2,683 1,361

80-84 10,962 4,639 680 2,595 921 442 6,323 852 1,691 2,778 1,002

85-89 6,346 2,355 237 1,224 680 215 3,991 450 708 2,233 599

90-94 2,939 891 52 387 367 85 2,048 178 206 1,345 319

95 + 1,146 262 6 72 150 33 884 45 35 608 196

0-19 122,763 62,836 62,675 157 0 5 59,927 59,325 573 0 29

20-64 247,229 125,277 49,339 62,226 731 12,981 121,953 36,472 66,301 2,814 16,366

50-64 73,643 36,831 8,701 22,783 592 4,754 36,813 6,389 21,866 2,198 6,359

62-64 13,421 6,638 1,479 4,200 192 767 6,783 1,117 3,831 703 1,132

65 + 76,599 34,366 6,345 20,263 4,220 3,538 42,233 6,062 15,772 13,515 6,883

20-65 251,555 127,403 49,806 63,570 809 13,219 124,151 36,829 67,503 3,090 16,730

20-66 255,799 129,482 50,259 64,881 894 13,448 126,316 37,178 68,664 3,388 17,087

20-67 259,958 131,512 50,699 66,158 987 13,669 128,446 37,519 69,782 3,709 17,437

20-68 264,032 133,491 51,123 67,398 1,089 13,881 130,541 37,852 70,856 4,053 17,780

20-69 268,025 135,422 51,533 68,601 1,201 14,087 132,603 38,178 71,885 4,423 18,118

66 + 72,273 32,240 5,878 18,919 4,143 3,300 40,034 5,705 14,570 13,239 6,519

67 + 68,029 30,161 5,424 17,607 4,058 3,071 37,869 5,356 13,409 12,941 6,163

68 + 63,870 28,131 4,985 16,331 3,965 2,850 35,739 5,015 12,291 12,620 5,812

69 + 59,796 26,152 4,561 15,091 3,863 2,638 33,644 4,682 11,217 12,276 5,469

70 + 55,803 24,221 4,150 13,887 3,751 2,432 31,582 4,357 10,188 11,906 5,131

Total 446,591 222,479 118,358 82,645 4,952 16,524 224,112 101,859 82,645 16,329 23,278

Table 21b.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Low Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
78

Low Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2070:

0-4 32,391 16,583 16,583 0 0 0 15,807 15,807 0 0 0

5-9 31,805 16,282 16,282 0 0 0 15,524 15,524 0 0 0

10-14 31,270 16,008 16,008 0 0 0 15,262 15,261 1 0 0

15-19 30,883 15,800 15,634 161 0 5 15,082 14,464 588 0 30

20-24 30,789 15,757 13,115 2,397 1 243 15,032 10,643 3,919 6 463

25-29 30,738 15,736 9,138 5,681 4 913 15,002 6,715 7,046 25 1,216

30-34 30,251 15,454 6,478 7,448 10 1,518 14,796 4,553 8,407 56 1,780

35-39 29,508 15,025 5,046 8,161 20 1,797 14,482 3,484 8,813 99 2,085

40-44 28,855 14,642 4,255 8,402 38 1,947 14,214 2,926 8,828 166 2,294

45-49 28,354 14,338 3,800 8,446 67 2,024 14,016 2,642 8,677 271 2,426

50-54 27,404 13,802 3,445 8,325 117 1,915 13,603 2,457 8,305 440 2,401

55-59 25,864 12,949 3,057 8,014 193 1,684 12,916 2,260 7,695 712 2,248

60-64 23,684 11,749 2,635 7,427 302 1,386 11,935 2,009 6,807 1,107 2,012

65-69 21,171 10,338 2,227 6,522 471 1,117 10,832 1,762 5,675 1,623 1,772

70-74 18,531 8,827 1,829 5,404 696 898 9,704 1,532 4,419 2,199 1,554

75-79 16,007 7,317 1,426 4,235 934 722 8,690 1,364 3,164 2,772 1,390

80-84 11,548 4,903 774 2,715 955 459 6,645 967 1,783 2,861 1,034

85-89 6,971 2,595 292 1,333 735 235 4,376 560 777 2,375 664

90-94 3,069 944 61 415 378 89 2,125 212 220 1,359 333

95 + 1,125 259 7 74 146 32 866 51 35 589 191

0-19 126,349 64,673 64,507 161 0 5 61,676 61,057 589 0 30

20-64 255,447 129,451 50,970 64,302 752 13,427 125,996 37,688 68,499 2,883 16,927

50-64 76,953 38,499 9,137 23,766 611 4,985 38,454 6,725 22,807 2,259 6,662

62-64 13,923 6,891 1,530 4,367 197 796 7,032 1,173 3,963 719 1,178

65 + 78,421 35,183 6,617 20,699 4,315 3,552 43,239 6,448 16,074 13,778 6,938

20-65 259,889 131,637 51,447 65,688 831 13,671 128,253 38,059 69,730 3,163 17,300

20-66 264,229 133,764 51,908 67,036 917 13,904 130,464 38,420 70,915 3,464 17,664

20-67 268,463 135,833 52,354 68,342 1,010 14,127 132,631 38,773 72,051 3,789 18,019

20-68 272,593 137,841 52,783 69,605 1,112 14,340 134,752 39,116 73,138 4,136 18,363

20-69 276,618 139,789 53,197 70,824 1,223 14,545 136,829 39,450 74,174 4,506 18,699

66 + 73,979 32,997 6,140 19,312 4,236 3,308 40,982 6,077 14,842 13,498 6,565

67 + 69,640 30,869 5,679 17,965 4,151 3,075 38,771 5,716 13,657 13,196 6,201

68 + 65,405 28,801 5,233 16,659 4,057 2,852 36,604 5,364 12,521 12,872 5,847

69 + 61,275 26,792 4,804 15,396 3,955 2,639 34,483 5,021 11,435 12,525 5,502

70 + 57,250 24,844 4,390 14,176 3,844 2,434 32,406 4,687 10,398 12,155 5,166

Total 460,217 229,306 122,094 85,161 5,067 16,984 230,911 105,193 85,161 16,661 23,895

Table 21b.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Low Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
79

Low Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2075:

0-4 33,387 17,094 17,094 0 0 0 16,293 16,293 0 0 0

5-9 32,819 16,801 16,801 0 0 0 16,018 16,018 0 0 0

10-14 32,215 16,492 16,492 0 0 0 15,723 15,722 1 0 0

15-19 31,713 16,225 16,055 165 0 5 15,488 14,853 604 0 31

20-24 31,583 16,163 13,453 2,460 1 249 15,420 10,913 4,025 6 476

25-29 31,640 16,197 9,406 5,847 4 940 15,443 6,903 7,261 25 1,253

30-34 31,314 15,997 6,711 7,703 10 1,572 15,317 4,719 8,697 57 1,844

35-39 30,538 15,550 5,225 8,444 21 1,861 14,988 3,622 9,106 101 2,159

40-44 29,605 15,023 4,356 8,633 38 1,996 14,582 3,006 9,055 168 2,353

45-49 28,802 14,567 3,843 8,603 68 2,053 14,235 2,660 8,842 273 2,460

50-54 28,101 14,156 3,541 8,531 119 1,965 13,945 2,500 8,542 446 2,458

55-59 26,877 13,460 3,198 8,307 199 1,756 13,417 2,344 8,008 730 2,336

60-64 24,957 12,387 2,803 7,800 314 1,469 12,570 2,141 7,155 1,146 2,128

65-69 22,087 10,796 2,326 6,814 486 1,170 11,292 1,863 5,905 1,668 1,856

70-74 18,882 9,006 1,859 5,538 701 908 9,876 1,583 4,497 2,222 1,573

75-79 15,552 7,126 1,376 4,167 901 682 8,426 1,309 3,104 2,704 1,309

80-84 12,094 5,140 869 2,814 985 472 6,953 1,071 1,861 2,964 1,058

85-89 7,379 2,760 337 1,406 770 247 4,619 639 826 2,465 689

90-94 3,387 1,046 76 457 414 98 2,341 265 244 1,461 371

95 + 1,186 278 8 81 154 34 908 62 39 607 200

0-19 130,134 66,612 66,441 165 0 5 63,522 62,887 605 0 31

20-64 263,418 133,500 52,536 66,327 774 13,863 129,917 38,809 70,690 2,952 17,466

50-64 79,935 40,003 9,542 24,638 632 5,191 39,932 6,985 23,704 2,322 6,922

62-64 14,699 7,279 1,631 4,596 206 846 7,420 1,257 4,169 745 1,249

65 + 80,566 36,151 6,851 21,278 4,411 3,612 44,415 6,792 16,475 14,092 7,055

20-65 268,094 135,803 53,042 67,785 856 14,121 132,291 39,205 71,982 3,242 17,861

20-66 272,645 138,036 53,527 69,198 945 14,366 134,609 39,590 73,220 3,553 18,245

20-67 277,064 140,196 53,992 70,563 1,042 14,600 136,867 39,962 74,402 3,887 18,616

20-68 281,350 142,282 54,436 71,878 1,147 14,822 139,067 40,323 75,527 4,242 18,975

20-69 285,505 144,296 54,862 73,142 1,260 15,032 141,209 40,671 76,595 4,620 19,322

66 + 75,889 33,848 6,346 19,820 4,329 3,354 42,041 6,396 15,183 13,802 6,660

67 + 71,339 31,615 5,860 18,407 4,240 3,108 39,724 6,011 13,945 13,491 6,277

68 + 66,920 29,455 5,396 17,042 4,144 2,874 37,465 5,639 12,763 13,158 5,905

69 + 62,634 27,369 4,951 15,727 4,039 2,653 35,265 5,278 11,638 12,802 5,547

70 + 58,479 25,355 4,525 14,463 3,925 2,442 33,124 4,930 10,570 12,424 5,200

Total 474,118 236,263 125,829 87,770 5,185 17,480 237,855 108,488 87,770 17,045 24,552

Table 21b.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Low Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
80

Low Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2080:

0-4 34,336 17,580 17,580 0 0 0 16,757 16,757 0 0 0

5-9 33,815 17,311 17,311 0 0 0 16,504 16,504 0 0 0

10-14 33,229 17,011 17,011 0 0 0 16,218 16,217 1 0 0

15-19 32,657 16,709 16,534 170 0 5 15,948 15,296 620 0 32

20-24 32,412 16,588 13,806 2,525 1 256 15,825 11,200 4,130 7 488

25-29 32,433 16,602 9,639 5,995 5 964 15,830 7,068 7,452 26 1,285

30-34 32,213 16,456 6,906 7,922 11 1,618 15,758 4,847 8,955 58 1,898

35-39 31,597 16,089 5,414 8,727 21 1,926 15,508 3,754 9,415 103 2,236

40-44 30,631 15,544 4,511 8,928 39 2,066 15,086 3,125 9,354 171 2,436

45-49 29,548 14,947 3,934 8,838 69 2,106 14,601 2,733 9,070 276 2,523

50-54 28,548 14,385 3,582 8,690 119 1,994 14,163 2,517 8,707 449 2,491

55-59 27,566 13,810 3,289 8,516 202 1,803 13,756 2,385 8,239 741 2,391

60-64 25,944 12,884 2,935 8,090 324 1,535 13,060 2,221 7,452 1,176 2,211

65-69 23,285 11,390 2,477 7,162 508 1,243 11,895 1,986 6,215 1,730 1,964

70-74 19,714 9,415 1,944 5,793 725 952 10,300 1,675 4,687 2,288 1,649

75-79 15,870 7,285 1,401 4,280 911 692 8,585 1,354 3,165 2,738 1,328

80-84 11,783 5,025 841 2,780 955 449 6,758 1,030 1,829 2,900 1,000

85-89 7,745 2,901 380 1,466 799 256 4,844 708 864 2,565 707

90-94 3,614 1,124 90 489 440 105 2,491 306 262 1,534 388

95 + 1,315 311 10 91 171 38 1,004 79 44 660 222

0-19 134,038 68,611 68,436 170 0 5 65,427 64,773 621 0 32

20-64 270,892 137,305 54,017 68,230 790 14,268 133,588 39,849 72,773 3,007 17,958

50-64 82,058 41,079 9,806 25,296 645 5,332 40,979 7,122 24,398 2,366 7,093

62-64 15,323 7,593 1,714 4,779 212 887 7,731 1,309 4,353 766 1,302

65 + 83,327 37,450 7,145 22,061 4,510 3,735 45,877 7,137 17,066 14,416 7,258

20-65 275,802 139,724 54,553 69,755 875 14,541 136,078 40,268 74,129 3,307 18,374

20-66 280,594 142,077 55,069 71,239 968 14,801 138,517 40,677 75,432 3,630 18,779

20-67 285,259 144,359 55,565 72,675 1,069 15,050 140,900 41,074 76,677 3,976 19,173

20-68 289,789 146,566 56,040 74,060 1,179 15,286 143,223 41,461 77,863 4,345 19,554

20-69 294,177 148,695 56,494 75,392 1,298 15,510 145,482 41,835 78,988 4,737 19,922

66 + 78,417 35,030 6,609 20,535 4,425 3,462 43,387 6,719 15,710 14,116 6,842

67 + 73,625 32,677 6,092 19,052 4,332 3,201 40,948 6,310 14,407 13,794 6,437

68 + 68,960 30,395 5,596 17,616 4,231 2,952 38,565 5,912 13,162 13,448 6,043

69 + 64,430 28,188 5,121 16,230 4,121 2,716 36,242 5,526 11,976 13,078 5,662

70 + 60,042 26,060 4,667 14,898 4,002 2,492 33,982 5,152 10,851 12,686 5,294

Total 488,257 243,366 129,597 90,460 5,300 18,008 244,892 111,760 90,460 17,424 25,248

Table 21b.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Low Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
81

Table 21c.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Intermediate Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080

(in thousands)

Intermediate 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2000:

0-4 19,668 10,065 10,065 0 0 0 9,602 9,602 0 0 0

5-9 21,202 10,842 10,842 0 0 0 10,360 10,360 0 0 0

10-14 20,532 10,506 10,506 0 0 0 10,026 10,025 1 0 0

15-19 19,894 10,168 10,026 138 0 4 9,726 9,214 491 0 21

20-24 18,536 9,478 7,437 1,875 1 165 9,059 5,770 2,992 8 288

25-29 19,258 9,811 4,762 4,474 6 569 9,447 3,082 5,584 32 749

30-34 20,777 10,549 3,213 6,332 14 990 10,228 1,804 7,208 72 1,144

35-39 23,309 11,806 2,423 8,015 36 1,331 11,503 1,358 8,460 152 1,534

40-44 22,928 11,529 1,547 8,374 67 1,541 11,399 913 8,403 265 1,817

45-49 20,342 10,132 930 7,727 94 1,381 10,210 629 7,478 391 1,712

50-54 17,500 8,652 670 6,777 139 1,066 8,848 483 6,447 528 1,389

55-59 13,577 6,641 394 5,342 186 719 6,936 311 5,019 712 893

60-64 10,927 5,260 313 4,273 215 459 5,667 242 3,762 1,052 612

65-69 9,592 4,483 271 3,547 330 335 5,109 223 3,021 1,452 413

70-74 8,958 3,992 226 3,039 465 261 4,967 228 2,434 1,976 329

75-79 7,447 3,104 157 2,225 555 168 4,342 219 1,595 2,297 231

80-84 4,941 1,842 79 1,220 476 68 3,098 186 698 2,109 105

85-89 2,806 872 32 486 328 27 1,934 121 276 1,483 53

90-94 1,176 292 9 132 142 9 884 51 105 700 27

95 + 362 69 2 20 45 3 293 14 22 245 11

0-19 81,296 41,581 41,439 138 0 4 39,715 39,202 491 0 21

20-64 167,155 83,858 21,688 53,190 758 8,222 83,297 14,590 55,353 3,214 10,140

50-64 42,004 20,553 1,376 16,393 540 2,244 21,451 1,036 15,228 2,293 2,894

62-64 6,331 3,033 182 2,462 134 255 3,298 140 2,148 668 342

65 + 35,281 14,654 775 10,667 2,341 870 20,628 1,043 8,151 10,263 1,170

20-65 169,145 84,803 21,745 53,947 814 8,296 84,342 14,635 56,001 3,471 10,235

20-66 171,046 85,698 21,800 54,660 874 8,365 85,348 14,679 56,612 3,736 10,321

20-67 172,932 86,578 21,853 55,357 938 8,430 86,354 14,723 57,211 4,019 10,401

20-68 174,833 87,459 21,906 56,049 1,009 8,494 87,375 14,767 57,800 4,329 10,478

20-69 176,747 88,341 21,958 56,737 1,088 8,557 88,406 14,813 58,374 4,666 10,553

66 + 33,291 13,709 718 9,911 2,285 796 19,582 998 7,504 10,006 1,075

67 + 31,390 12,813 663 9,197 2,225 727 18,577 954 6,893 9,741 989

68 + 29,504 11,933 609 8,501 2,161 662 17,571 911 6,294 9,457 909

69 + 27,603 11,053 556 7,809 2,090 598 16,550 866 5,704 9,148 832

70 + 25,689 10,171 504 7,120 2,011 535 15,518 820 5,131 8,811 757

Total 283,732 140,092 63,902 63,996 3,099 9,096 143,639 54,835 63,996 13,477 11,332
82

Intermediate 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2005:

0-4 19,360 9,909 9,909 0 0 0 9,451 9,451 0 0 0

5-9 19,990 10,228 10,228 0 0 0 9,762 9,762 0 0 0

10-14 21,504 10,995 10,995 0 0 0 10,508 10,508 1 0 0

15-19 20,872 10,672 10,526 143 0 4 10,200 9,665 512 0 23

20-24 20,416 10,437 8,203 2,056 1 177 9,979 6,369 3,281 7 323

25-29 19,180 9,810 4,759 4,468 4 579 9,369 3,197 5,420 26 726

30-34 19,707 10,012 3,177 5,886 12 937 9,695 1,896 6,672 64 1,063

35-39 20,991 10,612 2,449 6,950 25 1,187 10,379 1,343 7,557 121 1,358

40-44 23,325 11,754 2,029 8,164 57 1,503 11,572 1,149 8,429 234 1,759

45-49 22,806 11,408 1,368 8,304 101 1,635 11,399 827 8,210 384 1,978

50-54 20,089 9,947 849 7,591 146 1,361 10,143 596 7,206 560 1,781

55-59 17,088 8,377 606 6,589 209 974 8,711 462 6,087 778 1,385

60-64 13,026 6,289 350 5,064 262 613 6,737 299 4,551 1,026 861

65-69 10,155 4,784 267 3,824 313 380 5,371 230 3,184 1,380 578

70-74 8,538 3,861 218 2,937 435 271 4,677 204 2,328 1,764 380

75-79 7,479 3,168 162 2,257 551 198 4,311 197 1,647 2,181 287

80-84 5,584 2,136 88 1,404 535 110 3,448 171 899 2,199 180

85-89 3,114 1,010 31 591 350 38 2,104 119 310 1,603 72

90-94 1,333 341 7 147 175 12 992 55 84 824 30

95 + 423 81 1 27 50 3 342 14 23 289 15

0-19 81,727 41,806 41,659 143 0 4 39,922 39,386 513 0 23

20-64 176,629 88,645 23,791 55,072 817 8,965 87,984 16,138 57,413 3,200 11,233

50-64 50,204 24,613 1,804 19,244 617 2,947 25,591 1,357 17,844 2,363 4,026

62-64 7,405 3,562 190 2,876 159 338 3,843 166 2,567 637 473

65 + 36,627 15,381 774 11,186 2,408 1,012 21,246 989 8,475 10,240 1,541

20-65 178,824 89,692 23,848 55,914 876 9,053 89,133 16,187 58,127 3,454 11,365

20-66 180,950 90,700 23,904 56,724 937 9,135 90,251 16,235 58,805 3,720 11,490

20-67 182,970 91,651 23,957 57,486 998 9,210 91,319 16,280 59,438 3,994 11,607

20-68 184,893 92,551 24,008 58,202 1,062 9,279 92,343 16,324 60,029 4,277 11,713

20-69 186,784 93,429 24,057 58,896 1,131 9,345 93,355 16,367 60,597 4,580 11,811

66 + 34,432 14,335 717 10,344 2,349 925 20,097 940 7,761 9,987 1,410

67 + 32,306 13,327 661 9,535 2,288 843 18,979 892 7,083 9,720 1,284

68 + 30,287 12,375 608 8,772 2,227 768 17,911 847 6,450 9,447 1,167

69 + 28,363 11,476 557 8,056 2,163 699 16,887 803 5,859 9,163 1,062

70 + 26,472 10,597 507 7,362 2,095 633 15,874 760 5,291 8,860 964

Total 294,983 145,832 66,224 66,401 3,225 9,982 149,151 56,513 66,401 13,441 12,797

Table 21c.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Intermediate Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
83

Intermediate 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2010:

0-4 19,667 10,067 10,067 0 0 0 9,600 9,600 0 0 0

5-9 19,687 10,075 10,075 0 0 0 9,612 9,612 0 0 0

10-14 20,295 10,384 10,384 0 0 0 9,911 9,910 1 0 0

15-19 21,845 11,162 11,006 152 0 4 10,683 10,116 542 0 24

20-24 21,397 10,944 8,622 2,137 1 183 10,453 6,697 3,415 6 335

25-29 21,059 10,769 5,292 4,840 4 633 10,290 3,589 5,869 25 806

30-34 19,640 10,019 3,153 5,921 10 935 9,621 1,974 6,553 55 1,037

35-39 19,945 10,092 2,417 6,551 21 1,102 9,854 1,408 7,095 105 1,246

40-44 21,057 10,595 2,045 7,208 42 1,301 10,462 1,124 7,630 188 1,520

45-49 23,232 11,652 1,799 8,174 88 1,591 11,580 1,035 8,303 341 1,901

50-54 22,546 11,219 1,259 8,212 154 1,594 11,327 782 7,966 551 2,027

55-59 19,640 9,654 775 7,414 225 1,240 9,987 570 6,857 812 1,747

60-64 16,414 7,958 544 6,274 307 833 8,457 440 5,574 1,123 1,319

65-69 12,128 5,747 302 4,558 378 509 6,381 283 3,885 1,407 807

70-74 9,069 4,149 217 3,191 434 307 4,919 211 2,475 1,711 523

75-79 7,157 3,088 158 2,205 521 205 4,069 176 1,580 1,985 328

80-84 5,639 2,199 92 1,438 540 128 3,441 154 924 2,140 222

85-89 3,540 1,178 35 687 398 59 2,363 110 398 1,733 121

90-94 1,485 396 7 191 181 16 1,089 54 96 899 40

95 + 481 94 1 26 63 4 387 16 15 339 17

0-19 81,494 41,687 41,531 152 0 4 39,807 39,239 543 0 24

20-64 184,931 92,902 25,906 56,731 853 9,412 92,030 17,620 59,262 3,208 11,939

50-64 58,600 28,831 2,577 21,900 686 3,667 29,770 1,793 20,397 2,486 5,094

62-64 9,365 4,525 297 3,580 188 461 4,839 246 3,163 689 741

65 + 39,499 16,851 811 12,295 2,515 1,229 22,648 1,004 9,372 10,213 2,058

20-65 187,570 94,163 25,978 57,735 924 9,527 93,407 17,684 60,127 3,472 12,124

20-66 190,223 95,427 26,045 58,737 1,003 9,643 94,795 17,746 60,988 3,757 12,305

20-67 192,726 96,615 26,104 59,678 1,083 9,750 96,112 17,803 61,793 4,045 12,471

20-68 194,964 97,668 26,157 60,514 1,157 9,840 97,296 17,855 62,500 4,327 12,615

20-69 197,059 98,649 26,207 61,289 1,231 9,921 98,410 17,903 63,147 4,615 12,745

66 + 36,861 15,590 739 11,292 2,444 1,114 21,271 940 8,508 9,949 1,874

67 + 34,208 14,325 672 10,290 2,365 999 19,882 878 7,647 9,665 1,692

68 + 31,704 13,138 613 9,349 2,285 891 18,566 821 6,842 9,376 1,526

69 + 29,466 12,084 560 8,513 2,211 801 17,382 770 6,135 9,095 1,383

70 + 27,371 11,104 510 7,737 2,137 720 16,267 722 5,488 8,806 1,252

Total 305,924 151,440 68,248 69,178 3,368 10,645 154,484 57,864 69,178 13,421 14,021

Table 21c.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Intermediate Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
84

Intermediate 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2015:

0-4 20,256 10,369 10,369 0 0 0 9,887 9,887 0 0 0

5-9 19,996 10,234 10,234 0 0 0 9,762 9,762 0 0 0

10-14 19,993 10,231 10,231 0 0 0 9,762 9,762 1 0 0

15-19 20,641 10,554 10,407 143 0 4 10,087 9,538 526 0 23

20-24 22,369 11,433 9,026 2,215 1 191 10,936 6,997 3,580 6 352

25-29 22,040 11,276 5,571 5,043 4 657 10,764 3,790 6,112 25 837

30-34 21,514 10,974 3,541 6,399 10 1,024 10,540 2,257 7,072 56 1,154

35-39 19,887 10,104 2,386 6,607 18 1,093 9,783 1,463 7,006 96 1,219

40-44 20,033 10,089 2,012 6,841 37 1,200 9,943 1,173 7,214 167 1,389

45-49 21,011 10,525 1,808 7,287 69 1,362 10,486 1,006 7,570 283 1,626

50-54 22,990 11,475 1,659 8,129 140 1,547 11,514 977 8,096 502 1,938

55-59 22,058 10,904 1,156 8,056 239 1,453 11,154 747 7,616 815 1,976

60-64 18,882 9,189 700 7,082 340 1,067 9,694 542 6,319 1,180 1,653

65-69 15,296 7,292 473 5,665 459 696 8,004 413 4,803 1,563 1,225

70-74 10,849 5,006 248 3,822 524 412 5,843 259 3,051 1,807 727

75-79 7,636 3,344 158 2,417 536 233 4,292 183 1,700 1,962 447

80-84 5,423 2,160 91 1,421 516 132 3,263 139 888 1,983 253

85-89 3,604 1,225 37 712 408 68 2,379 101 406 1,722 149

90-94 1,707 466 8 224 210 25 1,241 51 121 1,001 68

95 + 545 111 1 35 69 6 434 16 17 378 23

0-19 80,886 41,387 41,240 143 0 4 39,499 38,949 527 0 23

20-64 190,784 95,971 27,859 57,658 858 9,595 94,814 18,953 60,585 3,132 12,144

50-64 63,930 31,569 3,515 23,267 719 4,067 32,361 2,267 22,031 2,497 5,567

62-64 10,885 5,277 381 4,092 210 595 5,608 309 3,615 728 955

65 + 45,060 19,604 1,016 14,295 2,720 1,573 25,456 1,162 10,985 10,416 2,892

20-65 194,155 97,592 27,971 58,918 946 9,757 96,563 19,047 61,663 3,435 12,419

20-66 197,427 99,158 28,077 60,134 1,038 9,909 98,268 19,136 62,699 3,748 12,685

20-67 200,739 100,740 28,181 61,356 1,140 10,063 100,000 19,224 63,735 4,084 12,956

20-68 203,647 102,119 28,266 62,428 1,234 10,191 101,528 19,301 64,638 4,403 13,186

20-69 206,080 103,263 28,332 63,323 1,317 10,291 102,817 19,367 65,387 4,695 13,369

66 + 41,689 17,983 904 13,035 2,632 1,411 23,706 1,069 9,907 10,113 2,618

67 + 38,417 16,416 798 11,819 2,540 1,259 22,001 979 8,870 9,800 2,351

68 + 35,104 14,835 694 10,597 2,439 1,105 20,270 891 7,835 9,464 2,080

69 + 32,197 13,456 609 9,525 2,344 977 18,741 814 6,932 9,145 1,850

70 + 29,764 12,312 543 8,630 2,262 877 17,452 749 6,183 8,853 1,667

Total 316,730 156,962 70,116 72,096 3,578 11,172 159,768 59,064 72,096 13,548 15,059

Table 21c.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Intermediate Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
85

Intermediate 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2020:

0-4 20,451 10,469 10,469 0 0 0 9,982 9,982 0 0 0

5-9 20,585 10,536 10,536 0 0 0 10,049 10,049 0 0 0

10-14 20,302 10,390 10,390 0 0 0 9,912 9,911 1 0 0

15-19 20,342 10,403 10,261 138 0 4 9,939 9,409 507 0 22

20-24 21,173 10,831 8,560 2,090 1 179 10,342 6,565 3,437 6 334

25-29 23,012 11,765 5,912 5,166 4 683 11,247 3,972 6,373 26 877

30-34 22,493 11,479 3,745 6,655 10 1,068 11,014 2,390 7,366 57 1,201

35-39 21,751 11,051 2,700 7,131 19 1,201 10,700 1,691 7,550 100 1,359

40-44 19,982 10,107 1,980 6,906 33 1,187 9,875 1,217 7,140 156 1,362

45-49 20,006 10,033 1,777 6,942 61 1,253 9,973 1,049 7,183 259 1,482

50-54 20,820 10,382 1,664 7,289 115 1,314 10,438 948 7,410 433 1,648

55-59 22,510 11,166 1,526 8,006 225 1,410 11,344 931 7,763 767 1,882

60-64 21,222 10,393 1,051 7,721 366 1,256 10,829 708 7,048 1,211 1,862

65-69 17,610 8,434 613 6,412 514 895 9,176 508 5,477 1,664 1,527

70-74 13,704 6,370 392 4,767 645 567 7,334 377 3,817 2,042 1,098

75-79 9,171 4,058 183 2,915 646 313 5,113 225 2,131 2,135 621

80-84 5,831 2,365 92 1,579 542 152 3,466 146 975 1,999 345

85-89 3,500 1,220 37 716 395 71 2,279 92 392 1,624 172

90-94 1,769 497 9 238 221 29 1,272 47 123 1,016 85

95 + 646 135 1 43 82 9 511 15 22 436 38

0-19 81,681 41,798 41,656 138 0 4 39,883 39,352 508 0 22

20-64 192,969 97,207 28,915 57,907 834 9,550 95,762 19,471 61,269 3,015 12,007

50-64 64,552 31,941 4,240 23,016 706 3,979 32,611 2,587 22,221 2,412 5,391

62-64 12,435 6,068 571 4,536 232 729 6,367 382 4,095 762 1,127

65 + 52,230 23,079 1,328 16,670 3,046 2,036 29,150 1,412 12,937 10,917 3,884

20-65 196,827 99,073 29,065 59,320 931 9,758 97,754 19,584 62,495 3,337 12,338

20-66 200,513 100,847 29,198 60,666 1,032 9,950 99,666 19,691 63,655 3,664 12,657

20-67 204,041 102,536 29,317 61,953 1,137 10,129 101,505 19,792 64,752 3,996 12,966

20-68 207,390 104,131 29,426 63,170 1,242 10,293 103,260 19,888 65,781 4,333 13,258

20-69 210,578 105,641 29,528 64,320 1,348 10,445 104,938 19,979 66,746 4,679 13,533

66 + 48,371 21,212 1,178 15,257 2,949 1,828 27,159 1,299 11,711 10,595 3,554

67 + 44,686 19,439 1,044 13,911 2,848 1,636 25,247 1,192 10,552 10,268 3,234

68 + 41,157 17,750 926 12,623 2,744 1,457 23,408 1,091 9,455 9,937 2,925

69 + 37,808 16,155 816 11,407 2,638 1,293 21,653 995 8,425 9,600 2,633

70 + 34,620 14,645 715 10,257 2,532 1,141 19,975 904 7,460 9,253 2,358

Total 326,879 162,084 71,899 74,715 3,880 11,590 164,795 60,235 74,715 13,932 15,913

Table 21c.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Intermediate Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
86

Intermediate 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2025:

0-4 20,330 10,407 10,407 0 0 0 9,922 9,922 0 0 0

5-9 20,781 10,637 10,637 0 0 0 10,145 10,145 0 0 0

10-14 20,892 10,693 10,693 0 0 0 10,200 10,199 1 0 0

15-19 20,652 10,563 10,421 138 0 4 10,089 9,563 504 0 22

20-24 20,877 10,682 8,461 2,046 1 175 10,195 6,510 3,354 6 325

25-29 21,823 11,168 5,613 4,908 4 644 10,655 3,683 6,122 24 826

30-34 23,462 11,965 4,036 6,805 10 1,114 11,496 2,517 7,665 58 1,256

35-39 22,727 11,554 2,871 7,405 19 1,259 11,174 1,793 7,865 101 1,415

40-44 21,834 11,045 2,253 7,450 35 1,307 10,789 1,415 7,690 164 1,519

45-49 19,963 10,055 1,745 7,013 57 1,240 9,908 1,085 7,118 246 1,459

50-54 19,841 9,906 1,634 6,964 104 1,204 9,935 987 7,043 406 1,499

55-59 20,415 10,119 1,529 7,211 188 1,190 10,297 903 7,119 681 1,594

60-64 21,680 10,658 1,388 7,699 351 1,219 11,022 881 7,203 1,168 1,770

65-69 19,814 9,557 924 7,016 559 1,058 10,257 661 6,138 1,741 1,717

70-74 15,802 7,385 511 5,417 728 730 8,417 464 4,386 2,201 1,365

75-79 11,625 5,191 293 3,661 804 433 6,434 328 2,714 2,456 936

80-84 7,054 2,899 110 1,925 659 205 4,155 181 1,255 2,237 482

85-89 3,814 1,361 39 813 427 83 2,453 98 444 1,675 235

90-94 1,748 507 10 246 220 31 1,242 44 120 978 99

95 + 708 153 1 48 92 11 555 15 23 467 51

0-19 82,655 42,299 42,158 138 0 4 40,356 39,829 505 0 22

20-64 192,621 97,151 29,530 57,500 768 9,352 95,470 19,775 61,179 2,854 11,663

50-64 61,936 30,682 4,552 21,874 642 3,614 31,253 2,771 21,365 2,255 4,863

62-64 13,017 6,385 797 4,630 229 729 6,632 519 4,272 750 1,091

65 + 60,566 27,053 1,887 19,126 3,488 2,552 33,513 1,792 15,080 11,756 4,885

20-65 196,825 99,198 29,752 58,998 868 9,581 97,626 19,936 62,509 3,176 12,004

20-66 200,921 101,184 29,958 60,450 976 9,801 99,737 20,080 63,797 3,513 12,347

20-67 204,928 103,118 30,144 61,868 1,090 10,016 101,810 20,206 65,042 3,863 12,700

20-68 208,769 104,960 30,314 63,222 1,207 10,217 103,809 20,327 66,216 4,221 13,045

20-69 212,435 106,708 30,455 64,516 1,327 10,410 105,727 20,436 67,317 4,595 13,379

66 + 56,363 25,006 1,666 17,628 3,388 2,323 31,356 1,630 13,750 11,433 4,544

67 + 52,266 23,021 1,460 16,177 3,281 2,103 29,246 1,486 12,462 11,097 4,201

68 + 48,259 21,087 1,274 14,758 3,167 1,888 27,172 1,360 11,217 10,747 3,847

69 + 44,418 19,245 1,104 13,404 3,049 1,687 25,174 1,239 10,043 10,388 3,503

70 + 40,752 17,497 963 12,110 2,929 1,494 23,256 1,131 8,942 10,014 3,168

Total 335,843 166,504 73,576 76,764 4,257 11,908 169,338 61,395 76,764 14,610 16,570

Table 21c.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Intermediate Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
87

Intermediate 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2030:

0-4 20,232 10,358 10,358 0 0 0 9,875 9,875 0 0 0

5-9 20,661 10,575 10,575 0 0 0 10,086 10,086 0 0 0

10-14 21,089 10,794 10,794 0 0 0 10,295 10,294 1 0 0

15-19 21,242 10,865 10,719 142 0 4 10,377 9,838 516 0 22

20-24 21,188 10,843 8,594 2,071 1 177 10,345 6,641 3,372 6 327

25-29 21,530 11,022 5,542 4,843 4 633 10,508 3,654 6,022 23 810

30-34 22,282 11,375 3,814 6,501 9 1,051 10,906 2,296 7,380 54 1,177

35-39 23,692 12,038 3,119 7,583 20 1,316 11,655 1,890 8,186 102 1,477

40-44 22,806 11,544 2,403 7,735 35 1,372 11,261 1,498 8,017 166 1,580

45-49 21,801 10,984 1,992 7,566 60 1,365 10,817 1,265 7,667 259 1,625

50-54 19,810 9,935 1,604 7,042 98 1,192 9,875 1,020 6,988 389 1,477

55-59 19,474 9,666 1,501 6,907 171 1,086 9,808 940 6,773 647 1,448

60-64 19,700 9,679 1,391 6,966 298 1,025 10,021 856 6,613 1,055 1,496

65-69 20,270 9,818 1,224 7,022 542 1,030 10,451 820 6,292 1,708 1,632

70-74 17,813 8,392 775 5,956 795 866 9,422 603 4,946 2,338 1,535

75-79 13,442 6,042 385 4,186 912 558 7,400 404 3,151 2,680 1,165

80-84 9,001 3,743 179 2,444 833 287 5,257 264 1,636 2,627 730

85-89 4,671 1,697 48 1,009 527 113 2,974 123 590 1,929 331

90-94 1,948 581 10 289 246 37 1,367 49 142 1,039 137

95 + 737 164 1 53 97 13 572 15 23 473 62

0-19 83,224 42,592 42,446 142 0 4 40,632 40,093 516 0 22

20-64 192,283 97,086 29,959 57,214 695 9,217 95,197 20,061 61,018 2,701 11,416

50-64 58,984 29,280 4,496 20,915 566 3,303 29,704 2,816 20,375 2,091 4,421

62-64 11,760 5,764 786 4,173 195 610 5,995 491 3,916 680 909

65 + 67,881 30,438 2,624 20,958 3,952 2,904 37,443 2,278 16,780 12,794 5,592

20-65 196,374 99,082 30,229 58,641 785 9,426 97,292 20,234 62,328 3,002 11,728

20-66 200,481 101,080 30,488 60,070 886 9,635 99,401 20,401 63,627 3,325 12,048

20-67 204,567 103,060 30,743 61,485 996 9,837 101,507 20,567 64,899 3,668 12,373

20-68 208,600 105,007 30,982 62,872 1,112 10,041 103,594 20,726 66,131 4,029 12,707

20-69 212,553 106,905 31,184 64,237 1,237 10,247 105,648 20,882 67,310 4,409 13,048

66 + 63,791 28,442 2,354 19,532 3,861 2,695 35,349 2,105 15,471 12,493 5,280

67 + 59,684 26,445 2,095 18,103 3,760 2,486 33,239 1,938 14,172 12,170 4,960

68 + 55,598 24,464 1,840 16,688 3,651 2,284 31,134 1,772 12,899 11,827 4,635

69 + 51,564 22,517 1,601 15,300 3,535 2,081 29,047 1,613 11,667 11,466 4,301

70 + 47,612 20,620 1,399 13,936 3,409 1,875 26,992 1,458 10,488 11,086 3,960

Total 343,389 170,116 75,029 78,315 4,647 12,126 173,272 62,432 78,315 15,495 17,030

Table 21c.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Intermediate Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
88

Intermediate 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2035:

0-4 20,278 10,381 10,381 0 0 0 9,897 9,897 0 0 0

5-9 20,564 10,526 10,526 0 0 0 10,038 10,038 0 0 0

10-14 20,969 10,733 10,733 0 0 0 10,236 10,236 1 0 0

15-19 21,439 10,967 10,819 144 0 4 10,472 9,924 525 0 23

20-24 21,778 11,145 8,836 2,127 1 182 10,633 6,839 3,453 6 335

25-29 21,842 11,183 5,621 4,916 4 642 10,659 3,745 6,072 23 819

30-34 21,993 11,232 3,755 6,433 9 1,035 10,761 2,274 7,279 52 1,156

35-39 22,524 11,456 2,934 7,262 18 1,242 11,068 1,707 7,888 95 1,379

40-44 23,767 12,026 2,622 7,930 36 1,437 11,742 1,581 8,347 168 1,645

45-49 22,770 11,481 2,128 7,857 61 1,434 11,289 1,338 7,999 261 1,690

50-54 21,629 10,853 1,836 7,601 103 1,313 10,777 1,190 7,532 409 1,646

55-59 19,464 9,707 1,474 6,994 162 1,076 9,757 972 6,730 624 1,431

60-64 18,817 9,261 1,366 6,690 272 934 9,556 891 6,296 1,009 1,360

65-69 18,462 8,942 1,228 6,385 466 864 9,520 798 5,785 1,557 1,380

70-74 18,260 8,644 1,031 5,989 779 846 9,615 745 5,089 2,320 1,461

75-79 15,199 6,895 592 4,634 1,003 666 8,305 526 3,583 2,883 1,313

80-84 10,458 4,387 239 2,822 953 372 6,071 327 1,925 2,908 911

85-89 6,024 2,224 80 1,303 679 161 3,801 182 790 2,324 506

90-94 2,434 743 13 367 312 51 1,691 62 196 1,237 196

95 + 841 195 2 64 113 16 646 17 28 516 85

0-19 83,250 42,607 42,459 144 0 4 40,644 40,094 526 0 23

20-64 194,584 98,343 30,573 57,810 666 9,295 96,240 20,536 61,597 2,646 11,461

50-64 59,910 29,820 4,676 21,285 537 3,323 30,090 3,053 20,558 2,042 4,437

62-64 11,537 5,659 846 4,062 183 568 5,878 557 3,807 670 845

65 + 71,679 32,030 3,184 21,564 4,305 2,976 39,649 2,657 17,396 13,745 5,852

20-65 198,419 100,215 30,855 59,139 744 9,477 98,204 20,724 62,821 2,922 11,737

20-66 202,114 102,012 31,113 60,423 828 9,648 100,102 20,879 64,003 3,212 12,008

20-67 205,743 103,770 31,346 61,687 920 9,817 101,974 21,035 65,145 3,518 12,277

20-68 209,368 105,518 31,567 62,943 1,021 9,987 103,850 21,182 66,269 3,846 12,553

20-69 213,046 107,285 31,800 64,194 1,131 10,159 105,761 21,335 67,382 4,203 12,841

66 + 67,843 30,158 2,902 20,235 4,227 2,794 37,685 2,469 16,171 13,469 5,576

67 + 64,148 28,361 2,644 18,951 4,143 2,623 35,787 2,315 14,989 13,178 5,305

68 + 60,519 26,604 2,411 17,687 4,051 2,454 33,915 2,159 13,848 12,873 5,036

69 + 56,894 24,855 2,190 16,431 3,950 2,284 32,039 2,011 12,724 12,545 4,760

70 + 53,216 23,088 1,957 15,180 3,840 2,112 30,128 1,859 11,610 12,187 4,472

Total 349,513 172,980 76,216 79,518 4,971 12,275 176,533 63,288 79,518 16,391 17,336

Table 21c.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Intermediate Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
89

Intermediate 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2040:

0-4 20,465 10,478 10,478 0 0 0 9,988 9,988 0 0 0

5-9 20,611 10,550 10,550 0 0 0 10,061 10,061 0 0 0

10-14 20,873 10,684 10,684 0 0 0 10,189 10,188 1 0 0

15-19 21,321 10,907 10,759 144 0 4 10,414 9,865 526 0 23

20-24 21,976 11,248 8,914 2,149 1 184 10,729 6,883 3,500 6 340

25-29 22,431 11,485 5,784 5,038 4 659 10,946 3,868 6,214 23 842

30-34 22,306 11,394 3,804 6,532 9 1,050 10,912 2,338 7,350 51 1,173

35-39 22,241 11,317 2,883 7,195 18 1,222 10,924 1,686 7,792 92 1,354

40-44 22,613 11,454 2,460 7,606 34 1,355 11,159 1,419 8,050 156 1,533

45-49 23,727 11,960 2,331 8,063 62 1,504 11,768 1,413 8,334 264 1,757

50-54 22,594 11,347 1,965 7,895 105 1,382 11,246 1,258 7,866 412 1,711

55-59 21,252 10,606 1,691 7,555 172 1,189 10,646 1,133 7,263 656 1,595

60-64 18,837 9,319 1,344 6,789 260 925 9,519 922 6,273 977 1,347

65-69 17,663 8,573 1,205 6,151 429 787 9,090 832 5,510 1,492 1,256

70-74 16,680 7,900 1,036 5,476 677 711 8,779 727 4,686 2,128 1,238

75-79 15,627 7,131 791 4,691 993 655 8,496 650 3,705 2,886 1,255

80-84 11,885 5,042 374 3,159 1,061 448 6,843 428 2,216 3,167 1,033

85-89 7,055 2,635 110 1,525 789 211 4,420 226 943 2,615 636

90-94 3,196 996 24 485 414 74 2,200 93 268 1,536 302

95 + 1,072 256 2 83 148 22 815 22 40 630 123

0-19 83,270 42,618 42,470 144 0 4 40,652 40,102 527 0 23

20-64 197,978 100,130 31,176 58,822 663 9,469 97,848 20,920 62,641 2,635 11,652

50-64 62,683 31,272 5,000 22,239 536 3,497 31,411 3,313 21,401 2,044 4,653

62-64 10,952 5,405 762 3,952 168 522 5,548 524 3,623 628 773

65 + 73,178 32,534 3,542 21,571 4,512 2,909 40,644 2,978 17,369 14,454 5,844

20-65 201,466 101,840 31,411 60,071 730 9,628 99,626 21,078 63,771 2,882 11,895

20-66 204,896 103,513 31,641 61,288 804 9,780 101,382 21,234 64,868 3,148 12,132

20-67 208,380 105,205 31,877 62,506 888 9,934 103,175 21,400 65,958 3,440 12,377

20-68 211,994 106,950 32,126 63,744 985 10,095 105,044 21,574 67,061 3,769 12,639

20-69 215,641 108,703 32,381 64,973 1,092 10,256 106,938 21,752 68,152 4,127 12,908

66 + 69,690 30,824 3,307 20,322 4,444 2,750 38,866 2,820 16,239 14,207 5,601

67 + 66,260 29,150 3,077 19,105 4,370 2,598 37,110 2,663 15,142 13,942 5,363

68 + 62,776 27,458 2,841 17,887 4,286 2,444 35,317 2,498 14,052 13,649 5,119

69 + 59,162 25,713 2,591 16,649 4,190 2,283 33,448 2,323 12,949 13,320 4,856

70 + 55,515 23,961 2,336 15,420 4,083 2,122 31,554 2,146 11,859 12,962 4,587

Total 354,426 175,282 77,188 80,537 5,175 12,382 179,144 63,999 80,537 17,090 17,518

Table 21c.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Intermediate Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
90

Intermediate 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2045:

0-4 20,651 10,573 10,573 0 0 0 10,078 10,078 0 0 0

5-9 20,799 10,647 10,647 0 0 0 10,152 10,152 0 0 0

10-14 20,920 10,708 10,708 0 0 0 10,212 10,211 1 0 0

15-19 21,226 10,859 10,712 143 0 4 10,367 9,820 524 0 23

20-24 21,860 11,189 8,866 2,139 1 183 10,671 6,830 3,496 5 339

25-29 22,631 11,589 5,842 5,078 4 665 11,042 3,884 6,285 22 851

30-34 22,895 11,696 3,924 6,685 9 1,079 11,199 2,423 7,518 51 1,207

35-39 22,554 11,479 2,919 7,304 17 1,239 11,075 1,736 7,873 91 1,375

40-44 22,336 11,319 2,414 7,541 32 1,333 11,016 1,400 7,959 151 1,506

45-49 22,590 11,400 2,183 7,740 58 1,418 11,190 1,264 8,045 246 1,635

50-54 23,546 11,823 2,156 8,109 107 1,451 11,723 1,328 8,203 416 1,776

55-59 22,210 11,097 1,814 7,852 175 1,255 11,113 1,198 7,597 660 1,658

60-64 20,579 10,191 1,546 7,343 276 1,026 10,388 1,074 6,784 1,026 1,504

65-69 17,725 8,652 1,191 6,267 413 782 9,073 863 5,513 1,450 1,248

70-74 15,992 7,595 1,018 5,298 629 650 8,397 759 4,467 2,041 1,131

75-79 14,332 6,550 799 4,322 874 555 7,782 636 3,420 2,657 1,069

80-84 12,277 5,248 505 3,231 1,064 448 7,030 529 2,311 3,196 994

85-89 8,084 3,063 177 1,735 893 258 5,021 300 1,103 2,892 726

90-94 3,794 1,202 33 580 491 98 2,592 118 326 1,765 384

95 + 1,445 355 4 114 205 33 1,090 33 56 810 192

0-19 83,596 42,786 42,639 143 0 4 40,809 40,262 525 0 23

20-64 201,201 101,784 31,663 59,792 679 9,649 99,417 21,136 63,761 2,668 11,851

50-64 66,335 33,111 5,516 23,305 558 3,732 33,223 3,599 22,584 2,102 4,938

62-64 12,200 6,028 907 4,345 181 594 6,172 638 3,975 669 890

65 + 73,651 32,666 3,728 21,546 4,569 2,824 40,985 3,236 17,195 14,811 5,743

20-65 205,045 103,674 31,936 61,159 751 9,828 101,371 21,331 64,985 2,926 12,128

20-66 208,703 105,466 32,186 62,461 827 9,992 103,237 21,511 66,140 3,197 12,388

20-67 212,240 107,193 32,422 63,714 909 10,148 105,047 21,682 67,241 3,487 12,637

20-68 215,638 108,845 32,643 64,911 997 10,294 106,793 21,843 68,283 3,794 12,874

20-69 218,927 110,437 32,854 66,059 1,093 10,431 108,490 21,999 69,273 4,118 13,099

66 + 69,808 30,776 3,455 20,179 4,498 2,645 39,031 3,042 15,971 14,553 5,466

67 + 66,150 28,984 3,205 18,876 4,422 2,480 37,166 2,862 14,816 14,281 5,207

68 + 62,613 27,257 2,969 17,624 4,340 2,325 35,356 2,691 13,715 13,992 4,958

69 + 59,214 25,605 2,748 16,426 4,251 2,179 33,609 2,530 12,673 13,685 4,721

70 + 55,926 24,013 2,537 15,279 4,156 2,042 31,912 2,374 11,683 13,361 4,495

Total 358,448 177,236 78,030 81,481 5,249 12,477 181,212 64,634 81,481 17,479 17,618

Table 21c.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Intermediate Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
91

Intermediate 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2050:

0-4 20,737 10,617 10,617 0 0 0 10,120 10,120 0 0 0

5-9 20,985 10,742 10,742 0 0 0 10,243 10,243 0 0 0

10-14 21,109 10,805 10,805 0 0 0 10,304 10,303 1 0 0

15-19 21,274 10,884 10,737 143 0 4 10,390 9,844 523 0 23

20-24 21,768 11,143 8,830 2,130 1 182 10,624 6,798 3,484 5 338

25-29 22,517 11,532 5,812 5,054 4 662 10,985 3,842 6,275 22 847

30-34 23,096 11,800 3,970 6,732 9 1,089 11,296 2,430 7,597 51 1,218

35-39 23,143 11,781 3,018 7,470 17 1,275 11,362 1,803 8,052 91 1,416

40-44 22,651 11,483 2,445 7,653 32 1,352 11,168 1,442 8,045 149 1,531

45-49 22,321 11,271 2,141 7,678 56 1,396 11,051 1,246 7,959 238 1,607

50-54 22,434 11,279 2,019 7,791 100 1,369 11,154 1,188 7,926 390 1,651

55-59 23,153 11,568 1,995 8,074 179 1,320 11,585 1,264 7,933 669 1,719

60-64 21,525 10,675 1,663 7,643 283 1,087 10,850 1,136 7,114 1,036 1,564

65-69 19,381 9,475 1,373 6,791 441 870 9,906 1,004 5,980 1,527 1,395

70-74 16,096 7,695 1,010 5,423 614 648 8,401 789 4,493 1,992 1,127

75-79 13,782 6,321 786 4,205 819 511 7,461 664 3,266 2,551 980

80-84 11,330 4,858 516 3,009 949 385 6,471 520 2,143 2,955 854

85-89 8,413 3,220 244 1,802 911 263 5,193 371 1,167 2,949 706

90-94 4,407 1,423 56 675 569 123 2,984 160 389 1,991 444

95 + 1,802 451 6 142 257 46 1,351 44 70 978 259

0-19 84,104 43,048 42,901 143 0 4 41,056 40,509 524 0 23

20-64 202,608 102,533 31,893 60,226 681 9,733 100,075 21,149 64,385 2,650 11,891

50-64 67,112 33,523 5,677 23,508 562 3,776 33,589 3,587 22,973 2,094 4,935

62-64 12,621 6,246 950 4,492 184 620 6,375 658 4,134 670 913

65 + 75,211 33,443 3,991 22,047 4,560 2,845 41,769 3,552 17,507 14,945 5,765

20-65 206,638 104,517 32,185 61,656 754 9,922 102,121 21,356 65,672 2,911 12,181

20-66 210,588 106,455 32,468 63,052 834 10,102 104,133 21,560 66,915 3,193 12,466

20-67 214,500 108,367 32,747 64,421 922 10,278 106,132 21,764 68,120 3,500 12,748

20-68 218,300 110,218 33,013 65,743 1,018 10,445 108,082 21,962 69,270 3,828 13,022

20-69 221,989 112,008 33,266 67,016 1,122 10,604 109,981 22,153 70,365 4,177 13,286

66 + 71,181 31,459 3,699 20,617 4,486 2,657 39,722 3,344 16,220 14,684 5,475

67 + 67,231 29,520 3,417 19,221 4,406 2,476 37,711 3,141 14,977 14,401 5,191

68 + 63,320 27,608 3,138 17,852 4,318 2,300 35,711 2,937 13,772 14,095 4,908

69 + 59,519 25,757 2,872 16,530 4,222 2,133 33,762 2,739 12,622 13,767 4,635

70 + 55,830 23,968 2,618 15,257 4,118 1,975 31,863 2,548 11,527 13,418 4,370

Total 361,923 179,023 78,785 82,416 5,240 12,582 182,900 65,210 82,416 17,595 17,679

Table 21c.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Intermediate Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
92

Intermediate 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2055:

0-4 20,756 10,627 10,627 0 0 0 10,129 10,129 0 0 0

5-9 21,071 10,787 10,787 0 0 0 10,285 10,285 0 0 0

10-14 21,295 10,901 10,901 0 0 0 10,394 10,393 1 0 0

15-19 21,464 10,981 10,833 144 0 4 10,482 9,933 526 0 23

20-24 21,817 11,169 8,852 2,134 1 182 10,648 6,819 3,486 5 338

25-29 22,427 11,488 5,788 5,037 3 660 10,939 3,820 6,255 21 843

30-34 22,985 11,746 3,951 6,702 8 1,085 11,239 2,397 7,583 50 1,210

35-39 23,346 11,886 3,059 7,520 17 1,289 11,459 1,808 8,133 90 1,428

40-44 23,239 11,784 2,533 7,824 32 1,394 11,455 1,500 8,228 150 1,578

45-49 22,639 11,436 2,170 7,793 55 1,418 11,203 1,284 8,048 236 1,635

50-54 22,177 11,158 1,981 7,733 96 1,348 11,019 1,171 7,848 377 1,623

55-59 22,079 11,047 1,869 7,766 168 1,245 11,032 1,131 7,675 629 1,597

60-64 22,454 11,139 1,832 7,870 290 1,147 11,315 1,199 7,441 1,054 1,621

65-69 20,301 9,944 1,482 7,083 454 925 10,357 1,063 6,293 1,549 1,452

70-74 17,626 8,444 1,169 5,893 658 724 9,182 918 4,898 2,104 1,262

75-79 13,936 6,443 788 4,334 807 514 7,493 693 3,313 2,503 983

80-84 10,945 4,717 508 2,952 898 358 6,229 544 2,055 2,841 788

85-89 7,838 3,018 253 1,706 827 231 4,820 369 1,094 2,743 614

90-94 4,643 1,519 80 718 593 128 3,123 200 420 2,065 438

95 + 2,174 555 11 173 312 59 1,619 62 86 1,154 317

0-19 84,585 43,295 43,147 144 0 4 41,290 40,740 527 0 23

20-64 203,162 102,853 32,035 60,379 671 9,768 100,310 21,130 64,695 2,611 11,874

50-64 66,710 33,344 5,682 23,368 554 3,740 33,366 3,501 22,963 2,060 4,842

62-64 13,480 6,673 1,090 4,716 192 675 6,807 729 4,410 694 975

65 + 77,462 34,640 4,291 22,859 4,550 2,940 42,822 3,849 18,160 14,960 5,854

20-65 207,491 104,987 32,369 61,894 748 9,975 102,504 21,362 66,075 2,882 12,185

20-66 211,652 107,032 32,678 63,354 831 10,169 104,620 21,580 67,387 3,170 12,483

20-67 215,684 109,007 32,969 64,765 921 10,352 106,677 21,789 68,640 3,478 12,771

20-68 219,617 110,927 33,248 66,134 1,019 10,526 108,690 21,993 69,839 3,807 13,051

20-69 223,463 112,797 33,517 67,461 1,125 10,693 110,667 22,193 70,988 4,160 13,326

66 + 73,134 32,506 3,957 21,343 4,473 2,733 40,628 3,617 16,780 14,689 5,542

67 + 68,973 30,461 3,648 19,883 4,390 2,539 38,512 3,399 15,468 14,401 5,244

68 + 64,941 28,486 3,357 18,472 4,300 2,356 36,455 3,190 14,215 14,094 4,956

69 + 61,008 26,566 3,078 17,104 4,202 2,182 34,442 2,986 13,015 13,764 4,676

70 + 57,161 24,696 2,809 15,776 4,096 2,015 32,465 2,786 11,867 13,411 4,402

Total 365,210 180,788 79,473 83,381 5,221 12,712 184,422 65,719 83,381 17,572 17,750

Table 21c.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Intermediate Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
93

Intermediate 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2060:

0-4 20,795 10,647 10,647 0 0 0 10,148 10,148 0 0 0

5-9 21,091 10,797 10,797 0 0 0 10,294 10,294 0 0 0

10-14 21,382 10,945 10,945 0 0 0 10,436 10,436 1 0 0

15-19 21,650 11,077 10,928 145 0 4 10,573 10,019 531 0 23

20-24 22,008 11,268 8,931 2,152 1 184 10,740 6,886 3,509 5 340

25-29 22,478 11,515 5,800 5,051 3 661 10,963 3,835 6,263 21 844

30-34 22,897 11,703 3,933 6,682 8 1,080 11,194 2,380 7,561 48 1,204

35-39 23,238 11,834 3,045 7,489 17 1,284 11,404 1,781 8,117 88 1,418

40-44 23,444 11,891 2,571 7,878 32 1,410 11,553 1,504 8,310 148 1,591

45-49 23,226 11,736 2,252 7,967 55 1,462 11,490 1,337 8,232 236 1,685

50-54 22,498 11,326 2,009 7,850 95 1,371 11,173 1,207 7,940 373 1,653

55-59 21,841 10,937 1,834 7,714 162 1,227 10,904 1,116 7,606 611 1,571

60-64 21,439 10,653 1,718 7,581 272 1,082 10,786 1,075 7,209 996 1,506

65-69 21,198 10,390 1,637 7,305 466 981 10,808 1,122 6,596 1,583 1,507

70-74 18,499 8,885 1,267 6,164 680 774 9,614 973 5,179 2,146 1,316

75-79 15,299 7,094 916 4,730 870 577 8,205 808 3,638 2,655 1,103

80-84 11,148 4,855 518 3,074 897 366 6,292 573 2,114 2,808 797

85-89 7,625 2,957 251 1,695 793 218 4,667 387 1,061 2,648 572

90-94 4,391 1,451 85 699 551 116 2,940 203 405 1,946 387

95 + 2,411 623 17 194 346 67 1,787 81 97 1,269 340

0-19 84,918 43,466 43,317 145 0 4 41,451 40,896 532 0 23

20-64 203,070 102,863 32,093 60,364 645 9,761 100,207 21,120 64,749 2,525 11,812

50-64 65,778 32,915 5,562 23,145 528 3,680 32,863 3,398 22,755 1,980 4,730

62-64 12,820 6,358 1,018 4,526 180 634 6,462 643 4,267 654 898

65 + 80,570 36,255 4,692 23,861 4,604 3,098 44,314 4,146 19,090 15,056 6,022

20-65 207,364 104,982 32,432 61,864 720 9,966 102,382 21,341 66,136 2,790 12,115

20-66 211,636 107,084 32,765 63,348 803 10,167 104,552 21,563 67,492 3,079 12,418

20-67 215,892 109,170 33,095 64,815 896 10,364 106,722 21,788 68,818 3,396 12,720

20-68 220,118 111,233 33,418 66,260 999 10,556 108,885 22,016 70,107 3,739 13,022

20-69 224,267 113,252 33,731 67,669 1,111 10,742 111,015 22,242 71,345 4,109 13,319

66 + 76,275 34,136 4,353 22,361 4,529 2,893 42,139 3,926 17,703 14,792 5,719

67 + 72,003 32,034 4,020 20,877 4,446 2,692 39,969 3,704 16,346 14,502 5,416

68 + 67,748 29,948 3,690 19,410 4,353 2,495 37,799 3,479 15,021 14,186 5,114

69 + 63,522 27,886 3,367 17,965 4,251 2,303 35,636 3,250 13,732 13,842 4,812

70 + 59,372 25,866 3,054 16,556 4,138 2,118 33,506 3,025 12,494 13,473 4,515

Total 368,557 182,585 80,102 84,370 5,249 12,863 185,972 66,163 84,370 17,582 17,857

Table 21c.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Intermediate Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
94

Intermediate 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2065:

0-4 20,888 10,695 10,695 0 0 0 10,194 10,194 0 0 0

5-9 21,131 10,817 10,817 0 0 0 10,313 10,313 0 0 0

10-14 21,402 10,956 10,956 0 0 0 10,446 10,445 1 0 0

15-19 21,738 11,123 10,973 146 0 4 10,615 10,058 534 0 23

20-24 22,196 11,365 9,008 2,170 1 186 10,831 6,944 3,539 5 343

25-29 22,670 11,614 5,851 5,093 3 667 11,056 3,876 6,308 21 851

30-34 22,950 11,732 3,939 6,703 8 1,083 11,218 2,390 7,575 47 1,206

35-39 23,154 11,794 3,030 7,470 16 1,278 11,360 1,766 8,097 86 1,411

40-44 23,341 11,842 2,560 7,848 31 1,404 11,499 1,480 8,296 144 1,578

45-49 23,434 11,845 2,288 8,023 55 1,480 11,589 1,341 8,317 232 1,699

50-54 23,086 11,626 2,088 8,028 95 1,415 11,460 1,257 8,126 373 1,704

55-59 22,168 11,109 1,863 7,836 160 1,249 11,060 1,150 7,703 605 1,602

60-64 21,229 10,560 1,689 7,541 262 1,068 10,670 1,062 7,156 969 1,483

65-69 20,273 9,955 1,538 7,053 438 926 10,317 1,008 6,405 1,503 1,401

70-74 19,346 9,302 1,405 6,375 700 823 10,044 1,028 5,446 2,203 1,368

75-79 16,107 7,495 1,000 4,971 904 621 8,612 859 3,874 2,724 1,155

80-84 12,289 5,375 608 3,378 975 414 6,914 669 2,348 2,998 899

85-89 7,856 3,091 263 1,795 807 227 4,765 414 1,114 2,651586

90-94 4,320 1,443 85 708 538 112 2,877 214 401 1,897 365

95 + 2,426 632 19 201 346 66 1,794 88 100 1,279 328

0-19 85,159 43,591 43,441 146 0 4 41,568 41,010 535 0 23

20-64 204,228 103,487 32,314 60,712 632 9,830 100,741 21,266 65,115 2,482 11,877

50-64 66,483 33,294 5,640 23,405 517 3,732 33,189 3,469 22,985 1,947 4,788

62-64 12,639 6,275 996 4,484 173 622 6,364 629 4,222 635 878

65 + 82,617 37,294 4,917 24,481 4,707 3,189 45,323 4,281 19,688 15,254 6,100

20-65 208,369 105,534 32,635 62,171 703 10,025 102,835 21,472 66,466 2,734 12,163

20-66 212,468 107,553 32,949 63,608 781 10,216 104,914 21,675 67,784 3,010 12,446

20-67 216,523 109,545 33,256 65,020 868 10,401 106,978 21,876 69,066 3,309 12,726

20-68 220,533 111,508 33,557 66,406 964 10,581 109,025 22,076 70,312 3,634 13,003

20-69 224,501 113,443 33,852 67,765 1,070 10,756 111,058 22,275 71,520 3,985 13,278

66 + 78,476 35,247 4,597 23,021 4,636 2,993 43,229 4,076 18,338 15,002 5,814

67 + 74,377 33,228 4,283 21,584 4,558 2,802 41,149 3,873 17,020 14,726 5,531

68 + 70,322 31,236 3,975 20,172 4,471 2,617 39,086 3,671 15,737 14,427 5,251

69 + 66,311 29,273 3,674 18,786 4,375 2,437 37,039 3,471 14,491 14,102 4,974

70 + 62,344 27,338 3,379 17,427 4,269 2,262 35,006 3,272 13,283 13,751 4,699

Total 372,004 184,372 80,672 85,339 5,339 13,022 187,632 66,557 85,339 17,736 18,000

Table 21c.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Intermediate Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
95

Intermediate 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2070:

0-4 21,007 10,756 10,756 0 0 0 10,251 10,251 0 0 0

5-9 21,225 10,866 10,866 0 0 0 10,359 10,359 0 0 0

10-14 21,442 10,976 10,976 0 0 0 10,465 10,464 1 0 0

15-19 21,759 11,134 10,983 146 0 4 10,625 10,066 536 0 23

20-24 22,285 11,411 9,044 2,180 1 186 10,874 6,967 3,557 5 345

25-29 22,859 11,712 5,903 5,133 3 672 11,147 3,910 6,358 20 859

30-34 23,143 11,832 3,974 6,758 8 1,092 11,311 2,418 7,629 47 1,217

35-39 23,209 11,825 3,034 7,494 16 1,281 11,384 1,773 8,113 84 1,414

40-44 23,260 11,805 2,546 7,830 30 1,398 11,456 1,467 8,278 140 1,570

45-49 23,337 11,801 2,278 7,995 54 1,474 11,536 1,319 8,306 226 1,685

50-54 23,298 11,738 2,123 8,087 94 1,434 11,560 1,261 8,214 368 1,717

55-59 22,755 11,409 1,939 8,018 161 1,293 11,346 1,198 7,891 604 1,652

60-64 21,566 10,737 1,718 7,670 260 1,089 10,829 1,095 7,260 961 1,513

65-69 20,103 9,886 1,514 7,032 424 916 10,217 997 6,372 1,467 1,381

70-74 18,541 8,937 1,322 6,174 661 779 9,604 927 5,302 2,101 1,274

75-79 16,884 7,871 1,113 5,161 933 663 9,013 909 4,092 2,809 1,203

80-84 13,003 5,717 671 3,576 1,020 449 7,286 715 2,524 3,102 946

85-89 8,718 3,452 313 1,993 887 260 5,266 486 1,256 2,859 664

90-94 4,534 1,543 93 770 561 119 2,991 235 436 1,940 380

95 + 2,451 646 20 212 349 66 1,805 95 104 1,289 317

0-19 85,433 43,732 43,581 146 0 4 41,701 41,141 536 0 23

20-64 205,713 104,270 32,559 61,165 627 9,919 101,443 21,408 65,608 2,455 11,972

50-64 67,620 33,885 5,780 23,775 515 3,815 33,735 3,554 23,365 1,932 4,883

62-64 12,772 6,347 1,004 4,543 171 630 6,424 643 4,264 627 890

65 + 84,234 38,052 5,047 24,918 4,834 3,252 46,182 4,363 20,086 15,567 6,166

20-65 209,854 106,319 32,877 62,631 696 10,115 103,535 21,614 66,960 2,703 12,258

20-66 213,936 108,333 33,187 64,070 772 10,304 105,603 21,817 68,275 2,973 12,539

20-67 217,957 110,311 33,490 65,478 856 10,487 107,646 22,016 69,551 3,265 12,815

20-68 221,917 112,252 33,785 66,854 949 10,664 109,665 22,212 70,786 3,581 13,086

20-69 225,816 114,156 34,073 68,197 1,051 10,835 111,660 22,405 71,980 3,922 13,353

66 + 80,093 36,003 4,729 23,452 4,765 3,056 44,090 4,157 18,734 15,319 5,880

67 + 76,011 33,989 4,418 22,014 4,689 2,867 42,022 3,955 17,419 15,049 5,599

68 + 71,990 32,011 4,116 20,606 4,605 2,684 39,979 3,755 16,143 14,757 5,323

69 + 68,029 30,070 3,820 19,230 4,512 2,507 37,960 3,559 14,908 14,441 5,052

70 + 64,131 28,166 3,533 17,887 4,410 2,336 35,965 3,366 13,714 14,100 4,786

Total 375,379 186,054 81,187 86,230 5,461 13,175 189,326 66,912 86,230 18,022 18,162

Table 21c.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Intermediate Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
96

Intermediate 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2075:

0-4 21,108 10,807 10,807 0 0 0 10,300 10,300 0 0 0

5-9 21,344 10,927 10,927 0 0 0 10,417 10,417 0 0 0

10-14 21,536 11,025 11,025 0 0 0 10,511 10,510 1 0 0

15-19 21,800 11,155 11,005 147 0 4 10,645 10,085 536 0 23

20-24 22,307 11,423 9,054 2,182 1 187 10,884 6,969 3,564 5 346

25-29 22,949 11,760 5,928 5,153 3 675 11,190 3,919 6,389 20 862

30-34 23,334 11,931 4,012 6,809 8 1,102 11,403 2,440 7,689 46 1,227

35-39 23,404 11,926 3,062 7,556 16 1,292 11,478 1,795 8,173 83 1,426

40-44 23,319 11,837 2,550 7,857 30 1,401 11,481 1,473 8,297 138 1,573

45-49 23,262 11,767 2,267 7,979 52 1,468 11,495 1,307 8,291 221 1,676

50-54 23,209 11,699 2,115 8,062 92 1,429 11,510 1,240 8,209 358 1,704

55-59 22,975 11,526 1,974 8,082 159 1,311 11,449 1,203 7,986 595 1,665

60-64 22,152 11,038 1,791 7,856 261 1,129 11,114 1,141 7,450 961 1,562

65-69 20,448 10,068 1,544 7,166 422 936 10,380 1,030 6,480 1,458 1,411

70-74 18,421 8,896 1,306 6,174 643 773 9,525 918 5,291 2,057 1,259

75-79 16,230 7,590 1,053 5,020 886 631 8,639 821 3,999 2,693 1,125

80-84 13,681 6,032 753 3,737 1,059 483 7,649 758 2,682 3,219 990

85-89 9,299 3,711 352 2,134 939 286 5,588 523 1,367 2,993 705

90-94 5,087 1,747 113 869 627 138 3,339 278 500 2,126 435

95 + 2,620 707 23 239 375 71 1,913 108 118 1,357 330

0-19 85,788 43,915 43,764 147 0 4 41,873 41,312 537 0 23

20-64 206,911 104,907 32,752 61,537 623 9,994 102,004 21,487 66,048 2,427 12,041

50-64 68,336 34,263 5,880 24,001 513 3,869 34,074 3,584 23,644 1,915 4,930

62-64 13,148 6,540 1,049 4,664 172 655 6,608 675 4,382629922

65 + 85,785 38,751 5,144 25,339 4,951 3,318 47,034 4,437 20,438 15,903 6,256

20-65 211,163 107,013 33,082 63,042 692 10,197 104,150 21,703 67,434 2,676 12,337

20-66 215,337 109,074 33,401 64,513 768 10,392 106,263 21,914 68,777 2,945 12,626

20-67 219,428 111,089 33,710 65,948 852 10,579 108,339 22,120 70,075 3,235 12,909

20-68 223,435 113,056 34,008 67,345 944 10,758 110,379 22,321 71,325 3,549 13,184

20-69 227,358 114,975 34,296 68,703 1,045 10,931 112,384 22,517 72,529 3,885 13,453

66 + 81,533 36,645 4,814 23,835 4,882 3,115 44,888 4,221 19,052 15,655 5,961

67 + 77,359 34,583 4,495 22,364 4,805 2,920 42,775 4,010 17,709 15,386 5,671

68 + 73,268 32,569 4,186 20,928 4,722 2,733 40,699 3,804 16,411 15,095 5,389

69 + 69,261 30,602 3,888 19,531 4,630 2,554 38,659 3,603 15,160 14,782 5,114

70 + 65,338 28,683 3,600 18,173 4,529 2,381 36,654 3,407 13,957 14,445 4,845

Total 378,484 187,573 81,660 87,023 5,574 13,316 190,911 67,237 87,023 18,331 18,321

Table 21c.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Intermediate Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
97

Intermediate 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2080:

0-4 21,181 10,845 10,845 0 0 0 10,336 10,336 0 0 0

5-9 21,445 10,979 10,979 0 0 0 10,466 10,466 0 0 0

10-14 21,655 11,086 11,086 0 0 0 10,569 10,568 1 0 0

15-19 21,895 11,204 11,053 147 0 4 10,691 10,129 538 0 23

20-24 22,350 11,446 9,072 2,186 1 187 10,904 6,982 3,571 5 346

25-29 22,974 11,773 5,935 5,159 3 676 11,201 3,917 6,401 20 863

30-34 23,426 11,979 4,031 6,834 8 1,107 11,446 2,444 7,725 46 1,232

35-39 23,595 12,026 3,094 7,612 16 1,304 11,570 1,812 8,237 82 1,439

40-44 23,515 11,940 2,575 7,921 29 1,414 11,575 1,492 8,359 136 1,588

45-49 23,324 11,802 2,270 8,008 51 1,472 11,522 1,312 8,313 216 1,680

50-54 23,142 11,670 2,106 8,050 90 1,424 11,472 1,229 8,199 350 1,694

55-59 22,898 11,494 1,968 8,063 156 1,307 11,404 1,183 7,988 581 1,651

60-64 22,382 11,161 1,826 7,928 259 1,148 11,221 1,146 7,550 950 1,575

65-69 21,027 10,365 1,613 7,352 426 974 10,662 1,074 6,666 1,463 1,459

70-74 18,770 9,080 1,335 6,309 643 793 9,690 949 5,400 2,051 1,289

75-79 16,171 7,583 1,044 5,042 868 629 8,588 816 4,008 2,648 1,116

80-84 13,212 5,852 718 3,658 1,013 464 7,360 688 2,635 3,105 932

85-89 9,842 3,946 400 2,251 984 310 5,897 557 1,464 3,133 743

90-94 5,497 1,909 131 947 676 154 3,588 304 553 2,263 467

95 + 2,973 816 29 277 428 83 2,157 131 138 1,514 373

0-19 86,177 44,115 43,963 147 0 4 42,062 41,500 539 0 23

20-64 207,605 105,291 32,877 61,762 613 10,040 102,314 21,518 66,342 2,385 12,069

50-64 68,422 34,325 5,900 24,041 505 3,879 34,097 3,559 23,737 1,881 4,920

62-64 13,336 6,639 1,076 4,723 171 669 6,697 682 4,457 623 935

65 + 87,491 39,550 5,270 25,837 5,038 3,405 47,940 4,519 20,865 16,177 6,379

20-65 211,955 107,447 33,219 63,296 683 10,249 104,508 21,740 67,762 2,633 12,372

20-66 216,242 109,567 33,553 64,803 760 10,451 106,675 21,959 69,143 2,903 12,670

20-67 220,455 111,644 33,876 66,278 844 10,646 108,811 22,175 70,479 3,195 12,962

20-68 224,587 113,675 34,188 67,716 937 10,833 110,912 22,386 71,769 3,510 13,248

20-69 228,632 115,656 34,490 69,114 1,039 11,013 112,976 22,592 73,009 3,848 13,527

66 + 83,141 37,394 4,927 24,302 4,968 3,196 45,747 4,297 19,445 15,930 6,076

67 + 78,854 35,274 4,594 22,795 4,891 2,994 43,580 4,078 18,064 15,660 5,778

68 + 74,641 33,197 4,271 21,321 4,807 2,799 41,444 3,863 16,728 15,368 5,485

69 + 70,509 31,166 3,958 19,883 4,714 2,612 39,342 3,652 15,438 15,053 5,199

70 + 66,464 29,186 3,657 18,485 4,612 2,432 37,279 3,446 14,198 14,714 4,920

Total 381,272 188,956 82,110 87,746 5,651 13,449 192,317 67,537 87,746 18,563 18,471

Table 21c.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report Intermediate Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
98

Table 21d.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report High Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080

(in thousands)

High Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2000:

0-4 19,385 9,921 9,921 0 0 0 9,464 9,464 0 0 0

5-9 21,134 10,807 10,807 0 0 0 10,327 10,327 0 0 0

10-14 20,464 10,471 10,471 0 0 0 9,993 9,992 1 0 0

15-19 19,816 10,127 9,975 147 0 4 9,689 9,147 520 0 22

20-24 18,405 9,407 7,289 1,952 1 164 8,999 5,615 3,090 9 285

25-29 19,109 9,731 4,621 4,549 6 555 9,378 2,968 5,651 34 725

30-34 20,663 10,487 3,141 6,373 14 960 10,176 1,753 7,238 78 1,107

35-39 23,224 11,755 2,389 8,038 37 1,291 11,468 1,336 8,475 161 1,496

40-44 22,857 11,482 1,531 8,382 68 1,501 11,375 904 8,409 276 1,786

45-49 20,293 10,099 924 7,732 93 1,350 10,194 625 7,481 397 1,691

50-54 17,470 8,633 667 6,782 137 1,046 8,837 481 6,448 530 1,377

55-59 13,556 6,630 393 5,345 184 708 6,926 310 5,018 711 888

60-64 10,914 5,253 312 4,276 212 453 5,661 240 3,763 1,048 609

65-69 9,587 4,481 270 3,551 327 332 5,106 221 3,026 1,447 412

70-74 8,964 3,995 227 3,046 461 260 4,969 227 2,443 1,971 328

75-79 7,463 3,112 158 2,235 552 168 4,351 219 1,604 2,297 231

80-84 4,963 1,852 79 1,229 476 68 3,111 187 704 2,114 106

85-89 2,828 880 32 492 329 27 1,948 122 280 1,493 54

90-94 1,191 296 9 134 144 9 895 52 107 709 27

95 + 370 71 2 20 46 3 299 15 23 250 12

0-19 80,799 41,325 41,174 148 0 4 39,473 38,929 521 0 22

20-64 166,491 83,477 21,266 53,428 753 8,030 83,014 14,232 55,575 3,244 9,964

50-64 41,940 20,516 1,372 16,402 533 2,208 21,424 1,031 15,230 2,290 2,874

62-64 6,324 3,030 182 2,463 133 252 3,294 139 2,149 666 340

65 + 35,366 14,686 777 10,707 2,334 867 20,680 1,043 8,187 10,280 1,170

20-65 168,479 84,421 21,323 54,185 809 8,103 84,059 14,277 56,223 3,500 10,059

20-66 170,379 85,316 21,377 54,899 868 8,171 85,063 14,320 56,835 3,764 10,144

20-67 172,264 86,195 21,431 55,596 931 8,236 86,069 14,363 57,435 4,046 10,224

20-68 174,165 87,075 21,484 56,289 1,002 8,300 87,089 14,408 58,026 4,355 10,301

20-69 176,078 87,957 21,536 56,979 1,080 8,362 88,121 14,454 58,601 4,691 10,376

66 + 33,378 13,742 720 9,950 2,279 793 19,636 999 7,539 10,024 1,075

67 + 31,478 12,847 665 9,236 2,220 725 18,631 955 6,927 9,760 990

68 + 29,593 11,967 612 8,539 2,156 660 17,626 912 6,327 9,477 910

69 + 27,693 11,087 559 7,846 2,086 596 16,605 867 5,736 9,169 833

70 + 25,779 10,205 507 7,156 2,008 535 15,574 822 5,161 8,833 758

Total 282,656 139,488 63,217 64,283 3,088 8,901 143,168 54,205 64,283 13,524 11,156
99

High Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2005:

0-4 18,417 9,427 9,427 0 0 0 8,990 8,990 0 0 0

5-9 19,628 10,043 10,043 0 0 0 9,585 9,585 0 0 0

10-14 21,351 10,916 10,916 0 0 0 10,434 10,433 1 0 0

15-19 20,715 10,591 10,419 167 0 4 10,124 9,507 593 0 24

20-24 20,188 10,315 7,818 2,314 1 183 9,872 5,906 3,636 8 323

25-29 18,865 9,641 4,290 4,794 5 552 9,225 2,784 5,738 30 672

30-34 19,410 9,850 2,872 6,109 12 856 9,560 1,665 6,869 74 952

35-39 20,760 10,479 2,284 7,104 27 1,064 10,281 1,234 7,686 139 1,222

40-44 23,124 11,621 1,934 8,273 59 1,355 11,503 1,096 8,523 263 1,621

45-49 22,640 11,287 1,322 8,372 100 1,492 11,354 805 8,272 410 1,866

50-54 19,994 9,879 833 7,646 142 1,257 10,115 587 7,248 570 1,710

55-59 17,033 8,341 599 6,631 200 911 8,692 457 6,110 777 1,348

60-64 12,996 6,272 347 5,094 250 580 6,724 295 4,571 1,015 844

65-69 10,152 4,782 266 3,851 301 364 5,370 226 3,210 1,364 570

70-74 8,564 3,874 219 2,969 422 264 4,690 203 2,361 1,749 377

75-79 7,543 3,198 164 2,298 539 196 4,345 196 1,685 2,176 288

80-84 5,677 2,176 91 1,444 531 111 3,501 172 930 2,215 183

85-89 3,205 1,045 32 618 355 39 2,161 123 325 1,639 74

90-94 1,399 361 8 158 182 12 1,038 58 90 859 31

95 + 458 89 1 30 54 4 369 16 26 312 16

0-19 80,111 40,978 40,806 167 0 4 39,133 38,515 594 0 24

20-64 175,010 87,684 22,299 56,339 796 8,250 87,327 14,829 58,654 3,287 10,557

50-64 50,023 24,491 1,779 19,372 592 2,749 25,532 1,339 17,929 2,362 3,901

62-64 7,390 3,554 189 2,893 152 321 3,836 164 2,578 630 464

65 + 36,997 15,524 781 11,367 2,385 991 21,473 994 8,626 10,314 1,539

20-65 177,203 88,729 22,356 57,187 853 8,334 88,474 14,878 59,372 3,537 10,687

20-66 179,327 89,736 22,411 58,002 911 8,412 89,591 14,925 60,056 3,800 10,811

20-67 181,345 90,687 22,465 58,769 970 8,483 90,659 14,969 60,693 4,070 10,926

20-68 183,270 91,587 22,515 59,491 1,031 8,550 91,683 15,012 61,289 4,351 11,030

20-69 185,162 92,466 22,565 60,190 1,097 8,614 92,696 15,055 61,863 4,650 11,127

66 + 34,805 14,479 724 10,520 2,328 907 20,326 945 7,907 10,064 1,409

67 + 32,680 13,472 669 9,705 2,270 829 19,208 898 7,224 9,801 1,286

68 + 30,662 12,521 616 8,937 2,211 757 18,141 854 6,586 9,531 1,170

69 + 28,738 11,621 565 8,215 2,150 691 17,117 810 5,990 9,250 1,066

70 + 26,845 10,742 515 7,516 2,084 627 16,103 768 5,416 8,950 969

Total 292,118 144,185 63,887 67,873 3,181 9,245 147,932 54,338 67,873 13,601 12,121

Table 21d.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report High Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
100

High Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2010:

0-4 18,037 9,233 9,233 0 0 0 8,803 8,803 0 0 0

5-9 18,667 9,553 9,553 0 0 0 9,114 9,114 0 0 0

10-14 19,849 10,156 10,156 0 0 0 9,694 9,692 1 0 0

15-19 21,603 11,037 10,838 194 0 5 10,566 9,855 684 0 27

20-24 21,092 10,784 7,987 2,602 1 194 10,309 5,896 4,067 7 338

25-29 20,658 10,557 4,422 5,528 4 603 10,101 2,775 6,570 28 728

30-34 19,200 9,785 2,524 6,433 10 819 9,415 1,465 7,021 60 869

35-39 19,562 9,883 2,028 6,916 21 919 9,679 1,120 7,424 116 1,019

40-44 20,753 10,417 1,812 7,494 42 1,069 10,335 973 7,888 209 1,264

45-49 22,963 11,468 1,659 8,402 85 1,322 11,495 958 8,515 372 1,650

50-54 22,349 11,074 1,196 8,387 145 1,346 11,275 751 8,122 570 1,832

55-59 19,544 9,586 753 7,555 208 1,071 9,958 557 6,960 810 1,631

60-64 16,377 7,934 534 6,384 282 735 8,443 433 5,649 1,102 1,260

65-69 12,139 5,753 299 4,642 350 461 6,386 278 3,953 1,375 781

70-74 9,126 4,178 218 3,268 408 285 4,948 209 2,545 1,682 513

75-79 7,268 3,142 161 2,284 499 197 4,127 177 1,650 1,972 328

80-84 5,812 2,276 97 1,518 532 129 3,536 157 987 2,164 228

85-89 3,735 1,254 38 747 407 62 2,481 115 438 1,800 128

90-94 1,624 440 8 218 196 18 1,184 60 109 971 44

95 + 561 113 1 33 74 5 449 19 19 391 20

0-19 78,156 39,980 39,780 194 0 5 38,176 37,464 685 0 27

20-64 182,499 91,489 22,914 59,699 797 8,078 91,010 14,929 62,218 3,273 10,591

50-64 58,270 28,594 2,483 22,325 634 3,152 29,676 1,741 20,731 2,481 4,722

62-64 9,348 4,515 292 3,642 172 409 4,833 242 3,205 676 710

65 + 40,266 17,156 823 12,709 2,466 1,158 23,110 1,014 9,700 10,356 2,040

20-65 185,135 92,749 22,985 60,721 863 8,180 92,386 14,992 63,096 3,530 10,769

20-66 187,789 94,014 23,052 61,741 935 8,285 93,775 15,053 63,971 3,808 10,944

20-67 190,296 95,202 23,111 62,699 1,010 8,382 95,093 15,108 64,790 4,090 11,105

20-68 192,538 96,259 23,164 63,551 1,079 8,465 96,279 15,159 65,511 4,365 11,244

20-69 194,638 97,242 23,213 64,342 1,148 8,539 97,396 15,206 66,171 4,648 11,372

66 + 37,629 15,896 752 11,688 2,401 1,055 21,734 951 8,822 10,099 1,862

67 + 34,976 14,631 684 10,668 2,328 950 20,345 890 7,947 9,821 1,687

68 + 32,469 13,442 626 9,709 2,254 853 19,027 834 7,128 9,539 1,526

69 + 30,227 12,386 573 8,858 2,185 771 17,841 783 6,407 9,264 1,386

70 + 28,127 11,403 523 8,067 2,116 697 16,724 736 5,748 8,981 1,259

Total 300,921 148,624 63,517 72,603 3,264 9,240 152,296 53,406 72,603 13,629 12,658

Table 21d.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report High Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
101

High Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2015:

0-4 17,877 9,152 9,152 0 0 0 8,725 8,725 0 0 0

5-9 18,290 9,361 9,361 0 0 0 8,928 8,928 0 0 0

10-14 18,891 9,667 9,667 0 0 0 9,224 9,223 1 0 0

15-19 20,108 10,281 10,077 199 0 5 9,827 9,080 720 0 27

20-24 21,984 11,233 8,115 2,909 1 208 10,751 5,812 4,574 7 359

25-29 21,570 11,030 4,290 6,115 4 621 10,539 2,565 7,216 26 732

30-34 21,002 10,708 2,520 7,306 9 874 10,293 1,397 7,922 57 918

35-39 19,385 9,842 1,722 7,242 17 861 9,542 941 7,588 96 918

40-44 19,607 9,860 1,578 7,333 34 916 9,746 857 7,677 171 1,041

45-49 20,677 10,329 1,533 7,705 63 1,028 10,348 828 7,968 293 1,258

50-54 22,719 11,291 1,497 8,495 126 1,173 11,428 885 8,440 515 1,589

55-59 21,890 10,781 1,085 8,354 212 1,129 11,109 709 7,870 811 1,718

60-64 18,839 9,158 675 7,326 299 857 9,682 527 6,504 1,147 1,504

65-69 15,346 7,319 464 5,865 408 581 8,027 406 4,956 1,513 1,152

70-74 10,963 5,065 248 3,981 477 359 5,899 256 3,184 1,761 698

75-79 7,807 3,428 162 2,554 500 212 4,380 183 1,813 1,941 442

80-84 5,659 2,269 97 1,541 501 130 3,390 143 978 2,009 260

85-89 3,885 1,340 42 805 420 72 2,545 107 467 1,811 160

90-94 1,937 543 11 271 234 28 1,394 57 147 1,112 76

95 + 682 144 1 48 87 8 538 20 23 467 27

0-19 75,166 38,461 38,257 199 0 5 36,704 35,956 721 0 27

20-64 187,672 94,233 23,014 62,785 766 7,668 93,439 14,521 65,759 3,121 10,038

50-64 63,449 31,230 3,257 24,176 638 3,160 32,219 2,121 22,814 2,472 4,812

62-64 10,873 5,268 369 4,232 185 482 5,605 301 3,719 708 877

65 + 46,278 20,107 1,025 15,066 2,627 1,390 26,171 1,172 11,570 10,614 2,815

20-65 191,047 95,856 23,123 64,089 843 7,801 95,190 14,612 66,871 3,414 10,293

20-66 194,325 97,426 23,226 65,347 925 7,928 96,899 14,700 67,939 3,717 10,543

20-67 197,651 99,014 23,329 66,612 1,016 8,057 98,636 14,787 69,008 4,042 10,799

20-68 200,572 100,401 23,413 67,723 1,100 8,166 100,171 14,863 69,940 4,352 11,016

20-69 203,018 101,552 23,478 68,650 1,174 8,250 101,466 14,926 70,715 4,635 11,189

66 + 42,904 18,484 915 13,762 2,549 1,257 24,420 1,081 10,458 10,321 2,560

67 + 39,625 16,914 812 12,503 2,467 1,131 22,711 993 9,390 10,019 2,310

68 + 36,300 15,326 710 11,238 2,377 1,001 20,974 906 8,321 9,693 2,054

69 + 33,379 13,939 626 10,128 2,292 893 19,440 830 7,389 9,383 1,837

70 + 30,932 12,788 561 9,200 2,218 809 18,144 767 6,613 9,100 1,664

Total 309,116 152,802 62,296 78,050 3,393 9,064 156,315 51,649 78,050 13,736 12,880

Table 21d.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report High Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
102

High Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2020:

0-4 17,298 8,856 8,856 0 0 0 8,442 8,442 0 0 0

5-9 18,131 9,280 9,280 0 0 0 8,851 8,851 0 0 0

10-14 18,515 9,476 9,476 0 0 0 9,039 9,038 1 0 0

15-19 19,155 9,796 9,587 204 0 5 9,359 8,594 738 0 26

20-24 20,499 10,484 7,366 2,919 1 198 10,015 5,015 4,657 7 336

25-29 22,462 11,480 4,217 6,617 4 642 10,982 2,309 7,910 27 737

30-34 21,914 11,182 2,344 7,945 9 884 10,732 1,197 8,585 56 894

35-39 21,184 10,764 1,694 8,141 18 912 10,420 877 8,488 96 959

40-44 19,444 9,829 1,311 7,636 30 852 9,615 699 7,831 151 935

45-49 19,562 9,794 1,319 7,546 53 876 9,768 715 7,775 250 1,027

50-54 20,500 10,198 1,370 7,837 99 893 10,303 755 7,939 422 1,187

55-59 22,290 11,018 1,351 8,508 191 968 11,272 829 8,223 752 1,468

60-64 21,146 10,330 976 8,149 309 896 10,816 668 7,410 1,170 1,568

65-69 17,704 8,483 591 6,776 442 674 9,222 493 5,767 1,598 1,363

70-74 13,918 6,482 388 5,074 569 452 7,436 373 4,061 1,978 1,025

75-79 9,447 4,196 187 3,153 588 268 5,251 226 2,321 2,102 602

80-84 6,154 2,518 99 1,759 518 141 3,636 150 1,106 2,028 352

85-89 3,842 1,366 44 841 408 74 2,476 99 470 1,723 184

90-94 2,067 601 12 303 252 34 1,465 55 159 1,154 97

95 + 853 188 2 64 111 12 665 21 32 565 47

0-19 73,098 37,407 37,198 204 0 5 35,690 34,924 739 0 26

20-64 189,003 95,080 21,948 65,298 714 7,120 93,923 13,065 68,817 2,931 9,110

50-64 63,937 31,546 3,698 24,494 598 2,757 32,390 2,252 23,572 2,344 4,223

62-64 12,411 6,045 536 4,786 196 526 6,366 364 4,300 737 964

65 + 53,985 23,834 1,323 17,970 2,887 1,655 30,152 1,418 13,916 11,148 3,670

20-65 192,868 96,949 22,091 66,788 796 7,273 95,919 13,173 70,107 3,239 9,400

20-66 196,566 98,728 22,219 68,210 882 7,417 97,838 13,277 71,327 3,552 9,682

20-67 200,114 100,428 22,333 69,570 972 7,552 99,686 13,375 72,482 3,870 9,959

20-68 203,489 102,036 22,440 70,856 1,063 7,677 101,452 13,469 73,567 4,194 10,223

20-69 206,707 103,562 22,539 72,073 1,156 7,794 103,145 13,558 74,584 4,529 10,474

66 + 50,121 21,965 1,180 16,480 2,804 1,501 28,156 1,309 12,626 10,840 3,381

67 + 46,422 20,185 1,052 15,058 2,718 1,358 26,237 1,206 11,405 10,527 3,098

68 + 42,874 18,486 937 13,698 2,629 1,222 24,388 1,107 10,250 10,209 2,822

69 + 39,499 16,877 831 12,412 2,537 1,097 22,622 1,014 9,166 9,884 2,558

70 + 36,281 15,351 732 11,194 2,445 980 20,930 924 8,148 9,550 2,307

Total 316,086 156,321 60,469 83,472 3,601 8,779 159,765 49,407 83,472 14,079 12,807

Table 21d.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report High Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
103

High Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2025:

0-4 16,492 8,443 8,443 0 0 0 8,049 8,049 0 0 0

5-9 17,553 8,985 8,985 0 0 0 8,568 8,568 0 0 0

10-14 18,357 9,395 9,395 0 0 0 8,962 8,960 1 0 0

15-19 18,781 9,607 9,396 206 0 5 9,175 8,407 741 0 26

20-24 19,552 10,004 6,914 2,895 1 194 9,548 4,593 4,624 6 324

25-29 20,985 10,738 3,694 6,434 4 606 10,248 1,781 7,776 25 666

30-34 22,805 11,631 2,298 8,395 10 928 11,174 1,010 9,210 58 896

35-39 22,095 11,237 1,562 8,708 19 948 10,858 725 9,089 98 946

40-44 21,233 10,742 1,290 8,491 32 928 10,491 648 8,689 160 995

45-49 19,408 9,766 1,082 7,800 49 834 9,642 575 7,899 232 937

50-54 19,418 9,682 1,172 7,658 87 766 9,735 647 7,740 378 969

55-59 20,155 9,976 1,228 7,865 154 729 10,180 703 7,748 644 1,084

60-64 21,581 10,587 1,214 8,326 284 762 10,993 776 7,774 1,116 1,328

65-69 19,931 9,605 857 7,578 464 706 10,325 624 6,620 1,667 1,414

70-74 16,124 7,553 497 5,904 626 525 8,571 455 4,782 2,124 1,210

75-79 12,076 5,420 298 4,064 717 341 6,656 331 3,026 2,414 885

80-84 7,533 3,131 118 2,211 622 180 4,402 187 1,460 2,271 484

85-89 4,257 1,556 46 989 438 83 2,701 107 552 1,790 252

90-94 2,095 634 13 331 255 35 1,461 53 163 1,131 114

95 + 980 226 2 77 131 16 755 21 36 632 66

0-19 71,183 36,430 36,219 206 0 5 34,753 33,985 742 0 26

20-64 187,232 94,362 20,455 66,572 641 6,694 92,870 11,458 70,549 2,718 8,145

50-64 61,154 30,245 3,614 23,849 526 2,257 30,909 2,127 23,262 2,138 3,381

62-64 12,978 6,353 706 5,000 186 460 6,626 466 4,605 719 836

65 + 62,995 28,125 1,832 21,153 3,253 1,887 34,871 1,777 16,640 12,029 4,424

20-65 191,440 96,407 20,656 68,187 723 6,842 95,032 11,608 71,985 3,025 8,415

20-66 195,549 98,397 20,845 69,754 811 6,986 97,153 11,742 73,373 3,345 8,692

20-67 199,580 100,340 21,019 71,286 906 7,130 99,240 11,862 74,714 3,680 8,984

20-68 203,455 102,198 21,178 72,751 1,004 7,266 101,256 11,978 75,980 4,025 9,274

20-69 207,163 103,967 21,312 74,150 1,106 7,400 103,196 12,083 77,169 4,384 9,559

66 + 58,788 26,079 1,631 19,538 3,171 1,739 32,709 1,628 15,204 11,722 4,154

67 + 54,678 24,090 1,441 17,971 3,083 1,594 30,588 1,493 13,816 11,402 3,877

68 + 50,647 22,146 1,268 16,439 2,988 1,451 28,501 1,374 12,475 11,067 3,585

69 + 46,773 20,288 1,109 14,975 2,890 1,315 26,484 1,258 11,208 10,722 3,296

70 + 43,064 18,519 974 13,575 2,788 1,181 24,545 1,153 10,020 10,363 3,010

Total 321,410 158,916 58,506 87,931 3,894 8,585 162,494 47,220 87,931 14,747 12,595

Table 21d.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report High Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
104

High Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2030:

0-4 16,021 8,202 8,202 0 0 0 7,819 7,819 0 0 0

5-9 16,749 8,573 8,573 0 0 0 8,175 8,175 0 0 0

10-14 17,780 9,100 9,100 0 0 0 8,680 8,678 1 0 0

15-19 18,625 9,528 9,319 204 0 5 9,098 8,340 732 0 26

20-24 19,182 9,817 6,791 2,836 1 190 9,365 4,529 4,512 6 318

25-29 20,044 10,262 3,483 6,186 4 589 9,782 1,621 7,498 24 640

30-34 21,338 10,896 2,027 7,967 10 892 10,442 742 8,826 55 820

35-39 22,985 11,684 1,580 9,036 20 1,048 11,300 617 9,587 103 994

40-44 22,139 11,210 1,211 8,943 35 1,021 10,929 538 9,191 166 1,034

45-49 21,182 10,666 1,080 8,573 54 958 10,516 539 8,682 251 1,044

50-54 19,280 9,663 964 7,846 83 769 9,617 521 7,816 361 919

55-59 19,120 9,488 1,051 7,650 140 647 9,632 604 7,529 599 900

60-64 19,567 9,616 1,101 7,695 237 583 9,952 659 7,320 988 984

65-69 20,402 9,881 1,069 7,758 442 612 10,521 725 6,966 1,628 1,203

70-74 18,227 8,599 727 6,637 673 561 9,628 577 5,530 2,260 1,261

75-79 14,071 6,364 386 4,768 806 404 7,708 405 3,612 2,640 1,050

80-84 9,731 4,103 193 2,892 781 237 5,628 276 1,958 2,677 717

85-89 5,301 1,981 57 1,272 542 109 3,320 135 757 2,077 352

90-94 2,387 750 15 405 288 41 1,637 58 202 1,218 159

95 + 1,063 256 3 90 145 18 808 21 39 665 83

0-19 69,175 35,403 35,194 204 0 5 33,772 33,013 733 0 26

20-64 184,838 93,302 19,287 66,733 584 6,699 91,536 10,369 70,961 2,553 7,652

50-64 57,967 28,766 3,116 23,191 460 2,000 29,201 1,784 22,666 1,948 2,803

62-64 11,707 5,739 637 4,601 155 346 5,967 391 4,330 639 608

65 + 71,182 31,932 2,450 23,822 3,677 1,984 39,250 2,197 19,064 13,165 4,824

20-65 188,931 95,299 19,515 68,308 656 6,820 93,632 10,515 72,411 2,836 7,870

20-66 193,053 97,304 19,738 69,886 737 6,942 95,750 10,660 73,848 3,142 8,100

20-67 197,166 99,297 19,960 71,449 826 7,062 97,869 10,806 75,256 3,468 8,339

20-68 201,237 101,261 20,173 72,983 921 7,184 99,976 10,951 76,620 3,814 8,591

20-69 205,239 103,182 20,356 74,490 1,025 7,311 102,057 11,094 77,928 4,180 8,855

66 + 67,088 29,935 2,221 22,246 3,605 1,862 37,153 2,051 17,615 12,881 4,606

67 + 62,966 27,930 1,999 20,668 3,523 1,740 35,036 1,906 16,178 12,576 4,376

68 + 58,854 25,937 1,776 19,105 3,435 1,620 32,917 1,760 14,770 12,250 4,137

69 + 54,782 23,973 1,564 17,571 3,339 1,499 30,810 1,616 13,405 11,904 3,885

70 + 50,780 22,051 1,381 16,064 3,235 1,371 28,729 1,472 12,098 11,538 3,622

Total 325,194 160,637 56,931 90,759 4,260 8,687 164,558 45,579 90,759 15,718 12,502

Table 21d.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report High Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
105

High Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2035:

0-4 15,578 7,976 7,976 0 0 0 7,602 7,602 0 0 0

5-9 16,279 8,333 8,333 0 0 0 7,946 7,946 0 0 0

10-14 16,976 8,689 8,689 0 0 0 8,287 8,286 1 0 0

15-19 18,051 9,234 9,030 200 0 5 8,817 8,073 718 0 25

20-24 19,030 9,741 6,740 2,811 1 189 9,289 4,502 4,465 6 316

25-29 19,679 10,079 3,423 6,074 4 578 9,600 1,615 7,332 23 630

30-34 20,404 10,426 1,912 7,644 9 860 9,979 669 8,477 51 781

35-39 21,530 10,959 1,400 8,534 19 1,006 10,571 447 9,120 95 909

40-44 23,024 11,653 1,250 9,228 37 1,138 11,371 464 9,637 174 1,097

45-49 22,083 11,129 1,026 8,975 57 1,070 10,954 451 9,141 259 1,103

50-54 21,043 10,555 972 8,583 91 909 10,488 493 8,560 389 1,047

55-59 19,011 9,484 869 7,811 135 668 9,527 490 7,591 577 870

60-64 18,602 9,168 944 7,478 218 529 9,434 569 7,105 934 826

65-69 18,566 9,012 970 7,190 376 476 9,554 618 6,569 1,469 898

70-74 18,735 8,891 911 6,827 654 498 9,844 670 5,848 2,246 1,080

75-79 16,002 7,301 573 5,405 882 442 8,700 516 4,223 2,858 1,103

80-84 11,438 4,874 255 3,435 897 287 6,564 340 2,380 2,986 859

85-89 6,954 2,651 97 1,702 704 148 4,302 202 1,048 2,525 528

90-94 3,050 987 20 539 372 56 2,063 75 290 1,471 226

95 + 1,254 317 3 117 174 22 937 25 50 747 115

0-19 66,884 34,232 34,027 200 0 5 32,652 31,907 719 0 25

20-64 184,407 93,193 18,537 67,139 571 6,946 91,213 9,700 71,427 2,508 7,579

50-64 58,656 29,207 2,785 23,872 444 2,106 29,449 1,552 23,255 1,900 2,742

62-64 11,447 5,624 607 4,551 147 319 5,823 374 4,306 624 520

65 + 75,997 34,033 2,829 25,216 4,058 1,930 41,964 2,445 20,408 14,302 4,809

20-65 188,238 95,066 18,751 68,635 633 7,047 93,172 9,836 72,817 2,766 7,753

20-66 191,939 96,871 18,950 70,080 700 7,141 95,069 9,952 74,155 3,037 7,925

20-67 195,587 98,642 19,133 71,501 774 7,234 96,946 10,072 75,451 3,324 8,098

20-68 199,245 100,410 19,312 72,914 857 7,327 98,835 10,191 76,728 3,636 8,281

20-69 202,972 102,205 19,507 74,329 947 7,423 100,767 10,318 77,996 3,977 8,477

66 + 72,166 32,160 2,615 23,719 3,996 1,829 40,006 2,309 19,018 14,044 4,636

67 + 68,465 30,356 2,416 22,275 3,929 1,736 38,109 2,193 17,679 13,773 4,464

68 + 64,816 28,585 2,233 20,853 3,855 1,643 36,232 2,072 16,384 13,485 4,290

69 + 61,159 26,816 2,053 19,440 3,773 1,550 34,343 1,954 15,107 13,174 4,107

70 + 57,431 25,021 1,859 18,026 3,683 1,454 32,411 1,827 13,839 12,833 3,912

Total 327,287 161,458 55,393 92,554 4,630 8,881 165,830 44,052 92,554 16,810 12,414

Table 21d.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report High Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
106

High Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2040:

0-4 15,189 7,777 7,777 0 0 0 7,413 7,413 0 0 0

5-9 15,837 8,107 8,107 0 0 0 7,730 7,730 0 0 0

10-14 16,507 8,449 8,449 0 0 0 8,058 8,057 1 0 0

15-19 17,250 8,825 8,630 190 0 4 8,425 7,711 689 0 24

20-24 18,459 9,451 6,538 2,729 1 184 9,008 4,338 4,358 5 308

25-29 19,530 10,005 3,414 6,013 4 574 9,525 1,615 7,261 22 627

30-34 20,044 10,246 1,880 7,512 8 845 9,798 672 8,307 49 771

35-39 20,606 10,496 1,320 8,192 18 965 10,110 401 8,756 89 864

40-44 21,584 10,937 1,110 8,705 34 1,088 10,646 336 9,148 160 1,002

45-49 22,964 11,568 1,073 9,244 60 1,191 11,396 392 9,566 267 1,172

50-54 21,945 11,017 931 8,965 95 1,027 10,928 416 9,002 396 1,115

55-59 20,761 10,368 884 8,533 148 802 10,393 466 8,312 615 1,000

60-64 18,538 9,189 785 7,638 212 554 9,349 466 7,174 903 806

65-69 17,701 8,622 834 7,002 349 438 9,079 537 6,380 1,401 762

70-74 17,128 8,155 830 6,362 567 395 8,973 574 5,531 2,054 815

75-79 16,540 7,604 724 5,605 873 403 8,936 601 4,498 2,881 956

80-84 13,121 5,658 387 3,947 1,001 323 7,463 437 2,826 3,288 913

85-89 8,277 3,205 132 2,060 829 184 5,072 251 1,301 2,879 640

90-94 4,095 1,362 35 744 504 79 2,732 115 416 1,856 344

95 + 1,645 434 5 162 236 31 1,211 33 76 935 168

0-19 64,783 33,157 32,962 191 0 4 31,625 30,910 691 0 24

20-64 184,432 93,277 17,935 67,531 580 7,230 91,155 9,101 71,884 2,505 7,664

50-64 61,245 30,574 2,600 25,136 455 2,383 30,671 1,348 24,488 1,913 2,921

62-64 10,800 5,342 456 4,445 136 305 5,458 276 4,144 580 458

65 + 78,507 35,041 2,947 25,882 4,359 1,853 43,466 2,547 21,029 15,293 4,597

20-65 187,892 94,978 18,084 68,940 634 7,319 92,914 9,192 73,181 2,733 7,807

20-66 191,309 96,651 18,236 70,318 694 7,404 94,658 9,286 74,444 2,980 7,948

20-67 194,799 98,352 18,398 71,703 762 7,489 96,447 9,392 75,706 3,254 8,095

20-68 198,439 100,117 18,578 73,119 840 7,579 98,323 9,511 76,991 3,565 8,257

20-69 202,133 101,899 18,769 74,533 929 7,668 100,234 9,637 78,264 3,906 8,426

66 + 75,046 33,339 2,797 24,473 4,305 1,764 41,707 2,456 19,732 15,065 4,454

67 + 71,629 31,667 2,646 23,096 4,245 1,680 39,963 2,361 18,469 14,819 4,314

68 + 68,140 29,966 2,484 21,710 4,177 1,594 38,174 2,255 17,207 14,545 4,166

69 + 64,499 28,201 2,304 20,294 4,098 1,505 36,298 2,136 15,923 14,234 4,005

70 + 60,805 26,418 2,113 18,880 4,010 1,415 34,387 2,010 14,649 13,893 3,836

Total 327,721 161,475 53,844 93,604 4,939 9,088 166,246 42,558 93,604 17,799 12,286

Table 21d.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report High Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
107

High Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2045:

0-4 14,797 7,576 7,576 0 0 0 7,221 7,221 0 0 0

5-9 15,449 7,908 7,908 0 0 0 7,541 7,541 0 0 0

10-14 16,065 8,223 8,223 0 0 0 7,842 7,841 1 0 0

15-19 16,783 8,587 8,397 185 0 4 8,196 7,505 667 0 23

20-24 17,663 9,045 6,257 2,612 1 175 8,618 4,136 4,182 5 294

25-29 18,963 9,718 3,329 5,827 3 559 9,245 1,543 7,074 21 608

30-34 19,898 10,174 1,890 7,433 8 843 9,723 676 8,231 47 769

35-39 20,252 10,320 1,300 8,053 17 951 9,931 404 8,590 85 852

40-44 20,671 10,482 1,046 8,360 32 1,044 10,189 301 8,787 149 951

45-49 21,543 10,865 954 8,719 55 1,136 10,678 285 9,083 243 1,068

50-54 22,828 11,457 981 9,231 98 1,147 11,371 363 9,424 401 1,184

55-59 21,669 10,833 853 8,911 154 915 10,836 397 8,753 618 1,068

60-64 20,269 10,061 805 8,350 232 674 10,208 446 7,873 955 933

65-69 17,702 8,679 699 7,175 340 464 9,023 444 6,471 1,359 750

70-74 16,395 7,840 717 6,224 530 369 8,555 501 5,385 1,970 699

75-79 15,215 7,029 664 5,267 770 328 8,186 518 4,275 2,662 732

80-84 13,672 5,956 496 4,144 1,011 304 7,717 510 3,045 3,358 803

85-89 9,614 3,785 208 2,415 950 213 5,828 327 1,578 3,234 690

90-94 4,967 1,690 50 926 612 102 3,277 146 531 2,176 424

95 + 2,287 627 9 234 338 46 1,660 52 113 1,236 259

0-19 63,094 32,294 32,105 185 0 4 30,800 30,108 668 0 23

20-64 183,756 92,956 17,415 67,496 600 7,445 90,800 8,551 71,999 2,524 7,726

50-64 64,767 32,351 2,639 26,492 484 2,736 32,416 1,206 26,051 1,974 3,185

62-64 12,046 5,968 486 4,949 151 383 6,077 278 4,626 624 549

65 + 79,852 35,605 2,843 26,385 4,553 1,825 44,247 2,497 21,399 15,994 4,357

20-65 187,571 94,838 17,569 69,056 659 7,555 92,733 8,644 73,429 2,765 7,894

20-66 191,210 96,629 17,711 70,543 721 7,654 94,582 8,732 74,780 3,018 8,051

20-67 194,742 98,361 17,850 71,976 789 7,746 96,382 8,821 76,071 3,289 8,200

20-68 198,148 100,024 17,983 73,350 862 7,830 98,124 8,907 77,298 3,577 8,341

20-69 201,458 101,635 18,114 74,671 940 7,909 99,823 8,995 78,469 3,883 8,476

66 + 76,037 33,723 2,689 24,825 4,494 1,715 42,314 2,404 19,968 15,754 4,188

67 + 72,398 31,932 2,547 23,338 4,431 1,616 40,465 2,316 18,617 15,500 4,032

68 + 68,866 30,201 2,408 21,904 4,364 1,524 38,665 2,227 17,326 15,229 3,883

69 + 65,460 28,537 2,275 20,531 4,291 1,440 36,923 2,141 16,099 14,942 3,741

70 + 62,150 26,927 2,144 19,209 4,212 1,361 35,224 2,053 14,928 14,636 3,607

Total 326,702 160,855 52,362 94,066 5,153 9,274 165,847 41,156 94,066 18,519 12,106

Table 21d.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report High Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
108

High Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2050:

0-4 14,381 7,363 7,363 0 0 0 7,018 7,018 0 0 0

5-9 15,057 7,708 7,708 0 0 0 7,349 7,349 0 0 0

10-14 15,678 8,025 8,025 0 0 0 7,653 7,652 1 0 0

15-19 16,343 8,362 8,178 180 0 4 7,981 7,309 649 0 23

20-24 17,199 8,809 6,097 2,541 1 171 8,390 4,036 4,064 5 286

25-29 18,172 9,316 3,186 5,592 3 535 8,856 1,462 6,796 19 579

30-34 19,337 9,891 1,853 7,208 8 822 9,445 643 8,015 44 743

35-39 20,110 10,252 1,315 7,969 16 952 9,858 408 8,517 82 850

40-44 20,323 10,311 1,032 8,220 30 1,030 10,011 303 8,628 143 937

45-49 20,644 10,419 899 8,378 51 1,091 10,225 255 8,732 226 1,012

50-54 21,434 10,771 873 8,712 90 1,096 10,663 265 8,958 363 1,077

55-59 22,557 11,275 904 9,184 158 1,029 11,282 348 9,180 621 1,133

60-64 21,187 10,532 783 8,731 241 777 10,655 383 8,318 957 998

65-69 19,394 9,527 722 7,863 372 570 9,867 427 7,131 1,437 872

70-74 16,467 7,934 606 6,413 522 394 8,533 418 5,499 1,921 695

75-79 14,639 6,801 576 5,188 727 311 7,838 454 4,180 2,567 637

80-84 12,689 5,569 462 3,942 909 256 7,120 444 2,916 3,134 626

85-89 10,132 4,047 273 2,582 983 208 6,085 384 1,731 3,354 617

90-94 5,878 2,047 82 1,119 725 122 3,831 195 663 2,509 464

95 + 2,957 833 14 310 446 63 2,124 70 152 1,554 348

0-19 61,459 31,458 31,274 180 0 4 30,001 29,328 650 0 23

20-64 180,963 91,577 16,942 66,534 597 7,504 89,386 8,104 71,207 2,458 7,616

50-64 65,178 32,578 2,560 26,627 489 2,902 32,600 997 26,456 1,940 3,208

62-64 12,453 6,180 453 5,137 156 434 6,273 231 4,845 619 577

65 + 82,158 36,759 2,735 27,416 4,684 1,924 45,399 2,392 22,272 16,476 4,259

20-65 184,964 93,554 17,087 68,178 659 7,631 91,410 8,183 72,728 2,701 7,798

20-66 188,900 95,494 17,231 69,786 726 7,751 93,406 8,265 74,201 2,964 7,976

20-67 192,814 97,417 17,379 71,372 801 7,866 95,398 8,352 75,640 3,253 8,153

20-68 196,634 99,287 17,523 72,910 881 7,973 97,347 8,441 77,019 3,563 8,324

20-69 200,357 101,104 17,664 74,397 969 8,074 99,253 8,530 78,339 3,895 8,489

66 + 78,156 34,782 2,590 25,773 4,623 1,797 43,375 2,312 20,752 16,233 4,077

67 + 74,221 32,842 2,445 24,164 4,556 1,677 41,378 2,230 19,279 15,970 3,899

68 + 70,306 30,919 2,298 22,578 4,481 1,562 39,387 2,143 17,840 15,681 3,722

69 + 66,487 29,049 2,154 21,041 4,400 1,454 37,438 2,055 16,461 15,371 3,551

70 + 62,763 27,232 2,012 19,553 4,312 1,354 35,532 1,965 15,141 15,039 3,387

Total 324,579 159,793 50,950 94,130 5,282 9,432 164,786 39,823 94,130 18,934 11,898

Table 21d.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report High Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
109

High Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2055:

0-4 13,962 7,149 7,149 0 0 0 6,813 6,813 0 0 0

5-9 14,642 7,495 7,495 0 0 0 7,146 7,146 0 0 0

10-14 15,287 7,825 7,825 0 0 0 7,462 7,461 1 0 0

15-19 15,957 8,165 7,985 176 0 4 7,792 7,136 633 0 22

20-24 16,762 8,587 5,944 2,476 1 166 8,175 3,934 3,958 4 279

25-29 17,712 9,083 3,110 5,447 3 522 8,629 1,431 6,616 18 565

30-34 18,551 9,494 1,771 6,928 7 788 9,057 604 7,706 41 707

35-39 19,555 9,974 1,294 7,735 15 930 9,581 387 8,295 77 822

40-44 20,186 10,247 1,048 8,137 29 1,033 9,940 307 8,559 138 936

45-49 20,304 10,254 888 8,239 48 1,079 10,051 257 8,580 215 999

50-54 20,554 10,337 824 8,377 82 1,054 10,218 239 8,623 335 1,021

55-59 21,204 10,614 807 8,678 144 985 10,591 258 8,744 560 1,029

60-64 22,083 10,979 835 9,015 248 881 11,104 338 8,749 958 1,059

65-69 20,321 10,002 707 8,246 386 663 10,319 370 7,573 1,441 935

70-74 18,098 8,744 631 7,057 569 487 9,354 405 6,102 2,036 812

75-79 14,797 6,940 493 5,390 721 335 7,858 383 4,314 2,522 639

80-84 12,299 5,441 403 3,923 869 247 6,858 392 2,874 3,040 552

85-89 9,523 3,849 260 2,502 905 182 5,674 338 1,681 3,166 491

90-94 6,302 2,239 112 1,230 773 124 4,063 232 747 2,661 424

95 + 3,687 1,068 24 397 566 81 2,619 98 200 1,905 416

0-19 59,848 30,634 30,454 176 0 4 29,214 28,557 634 0 22

20-64 176,913 89,567 16,520 65,033 575 7,438 87,346 7,755 69,829 2,347 7,415

50-64 63,842 31,929 2,465 26,071 473 2,920 31,912 835 26,115 1,853 3,108

62-64 13,300 6,601 502 5,422 164 513 6,699 215 5,213 633 637

65 + 85,027 38,283 2,630 28,745 4,789 2,118 46,744 2,217 23,490 16,770 4,268

20-65 181,212 91,694 16,676 66,786 641 7,591 89,518 7,830 71,475 2,596 7,617

20-66 185,359 93,741 16,820 68,478 711 7,732 91,618 7,903 73,044 2,861 7,809

20-67 189,393 95,727 16,958 70,119 787 7,862 93,667 7,975 74,551 3,147 7,994

20-68 193,347 97,668 17,093 71,719 870 7,985 95,680 8,049 76,002 3,455 8,174

20-69 197,234 99,569 17,227 73,279 961 8,101 97,665 8,125 77,402 3,788 8,350

66 + 80,727 36,155 2,474 26,992 4,724 1,965 44,572 2,142 21,844 16,521 4,065

67 + 76,581 34,108 2,330 25,300 4,654 1,825 42,472 2,069 20,275 16,255 3,873

68 + 72,546 32,123 2,192 23,659 4,578 1,694 40,424 1,997 18,769 15,970 3,688

69 + 68,592 30,182 2,057 22,059 4,494 1,572 38,410 1,923 17,317 15,662 3,509

70 + 64,706 28,281 1,923 20,499 4,404 1,455 36,425 1,847 15,917 15,329 3,333

Total 321,787 158,483 49,604 93,954 5,365 9,561 163,304 38,529 93,954 19,117 11,705

Table 21d.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report High Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
110

High Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2060:

0-4 13,587 6,957 6,957 0 0 0 6,630 6,630 0 0 0

5-9 14,223 7,281 7,281 0 0 0 6,942 6,942 0 0 0

10-14 14,871 7,612 7,612 0 0 0 7,259 7,258 1 0 0

15-19 15,568 7,966 7,791 171 0 4 7,602 6,961 618 0 22

20-24 16,380 8,392 5,810 2,419 1 163 7,987 3,845 3,866 4 272

25-29 17,278 8,863 3,036 5,315 3 509 8,415 1,397 6,451 17 551

30-34 18,095 9,264 1,732 6,755 7 769 8,831 592 7,511 39 690

35-39 18,777 9,582 1,235 7,441 14 891 9,195 363 7,980 72 781

40-44 19,639 9,974 1,033 7,905 27 1,009 9,665 292 8,339 130 905

45-49 20,174 10,193 904 8,160 46 1,083 9,981 260 8,516 207 997

50-54 20,228 10,179 815 8,244 77 1,044 10,049 241 8,482 318 1,008

55-59 20,356 10,198 762 8,356 131 949 10,158 234 8,433 517 975

60-64 20,794 10,355 747 8,537 225 846 10,440 255 8,358 867 960

65-69 21,221 10,452 759 8,539 396 757 10,770 329 7,998 1,448 994

70-74 19,026 9,219 623 7,435 591 570 9,808 354 6,528 2,053 873

75-79 16,335 7,692 518 5,970 789 415 8,643 373 4,837 2,685 749

80-84 12,548 5,621 352 4,126 873 269 6,927 334 3,014 3,018 561

85-89 9,325 3,813 229 2,526 879 179 5,512 300 1,678 3,095 440

90-94 6,036 2,182 110 1,227 733 112 3,854 208 745 2,556 344

95 + 4,235 1,254 35 467 659 92 2,981 124 240 2,187 430

0-19 58,249 29,816 29,641 171 0 4 28,433 27,792 619 0 22

20-64 171,721 86,999 16,074 63,132 528 7,264 84,722 7,478 67,936 2,169 7,139

50-64 61,378 30,732 2,324 25,137 432 2,840 30,646 729 25,273 1,701 2,943

62-64 12,540 6,235 448 5,141 150 497 6,305 158 4,997 573 577

65 + 88,727 40,233 2,627 30,291 4,920 2,394 48,494 2,022 25,040 17,042 4,391

20-65 175,977 89,107 16,227 64,863 591 7,425 86,870 7,537 69,591 2,406 7,337

20-66 180,231 91,208 16,380 66,586 662 7,581 89,022 7,599 71,221 2,667 7,535

20-67 184,490 93,306 16,532 68,301 740 7,733 91,184 7,664 72,829 2,956 7,735

20-68 188,743 95,394 16,684 70,001 828 7,881 93,349 7,735 74,406 3,273 7,936

20-69 192,942 97,451 16,833 71,671 925 8,022 95,492 7,807 75,934 3,617 8,133

66 + 84,470 38,125 2,474 28,560 4,857 2,234 46,345 1,963 23,385 16,805 4,193

67 + 80,217 36,023 2,321 26,837 4,787 2,077 44,193 1,901 21,754 16,544 3,995

68 + 75,958 33,925 2,169 25,122 4,708 1,925 42,032 1,835 20,147 16,255 3,795

69 + 71,704 31,838 2,017 23,422 4,621 1,778 39,867 1,765 18,569 15,938 3,594

70 + 67,505 29,781 1,868 21,752 4,524 1,637 37,724 1,692 17,041 15,594 3,397

Total 318,696 157,048 48,342 93,595 5,449 9,662 161,649 37,291 93,595 19,211 11,552

Table 21d.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report High Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
111

High Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2065:

0-4 13,254 6,786 6,786 0 0 0 6,468 6,468 0 0 0

5-9 13,849 7,090 7,090 0 0 0 6,759 6,759 0 0 0

10-14 14,453 7,398 7,398 0 0 0 7,055 7,054 1 0 0

15-19 15,154 7,755 7,584 167 0 4 7,399 6,775 603 0 21

20-24 15,993 8,195 5,674 2,362 1 159 7,797 3,751 3,777 4 266

25-29 16,898 8,670 2,973 5,197 3 498 8,228 1,367 6,307 16 539

30-34 17,665 9,047 1,693 6,596 6 751 8,619 579 7,330 37 673

35-39 18,326 9,355 1,210 7,262 13 871 8,971 357 7,784 68 763

40-44 18,870 9,588 986 7,610 25 968 9,282 273 8,027 121 860

45-49 19,637 9,927 892 7,933 43 1,058 9,710 248 8,303 195 964

50-54 20,108 10,125 831 8,171 73 1,050 9,983 244 8,428 304 1,007

55-59 20,050 10,053 755 8,233 122 943 9,997 236 8,309 488 964

60-64 19,993 9,967 707 8,238 204 818 10,026 232 8,083 800 910

65-69 20,031 9,885 681 8,114 360 730 10,146 252 7,673 1,318 903

70-74 19,927 9,668 672 7,734 607 655 10,259 317 6,937 2,074 931

75-79 17,255 8,159 517 6,332 822 487 9,096 328 5,229 2,729 810

80-84 13,943 6,284 376 4,613 961 334 7,659 327 3,430 3,241 661

85-89 9,649 4,014 207 2,708 901 198 5,635 260 1,801 3,120 454

90-94 6,002 2,207 99 1,268 727 113 3,795 186 761 2,534 314

95 + 4,409 1,329 39 504 693 93 3,080 125 258 2,300 397

0-19 56,710 29,029 28,858 167 0 4 27,681 27,056 604 0 21

20-64 167,540 84,927 15,721 61,601 490 7,116 82,613 7,287 66,347 2,032 6,947

50-64 60,152 30,145 2,294 24,642 399 2,810 30,007 712 24,820 1,593 2,882

62-64 12,005 5,976 421 4,942 136 478 6,029 140 4,818 528 543

65 + 91,215 41,545 2,590 31,273 5,072 2,610 49,670 1,796 26,089 17,315 4,470

20-65 171,547 86,914 15,859 63,241 546 7,268 84,633 7,335 67,924 2,247 7,127

20-66 175,555 88,897 15,996 64,875 609 7,417 86,657 7,384 69,482 2,484 7,307

20-67 179,561 90,875 16,132 66,499 681 7,563 88,686 7,434 71,020 2,745 7,488

20-68 183,566 92,847 16,267 68,113 760 7,706 90,720 7,485 72,533 3,033 7,668

20-69 187,571 94,812 16,402 69,714 850 7,846 92,759 7,539 74,021 3,350 7,850

66 + 87,208 39,557 2,453 29,632 5,015 2,458 47,651 1,748 24,512 17,101 4,290

67 + 83,201 37,574 2,316 27,998 4,952 2,309 45,627 1,699 22,954 16,864 4,110

68 + 79,195 35,597 2,180 26,374 4,881 2,163 43,598 1,649 21,417 16,602 3,930

69 + 75,189 33,625 2,044 24,760 4,801 2,020 41,564 1,597 19,903 16,314 3,749

70 + 71,185 31,660 1,909 23,159 4,712 1,880 39,525 1,544 18,416 15,998 3,567

Total 315,466 155,501 47,169 93,040 5,561 9,730 159,965 36,138 93,040 19,348 11,438

Table 21d.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report High Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
112

High Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2070:

0-4 12,940 6,625 6,625 0 0 0 6,314 6,314 0 0 0

5-9 13,517 6,920 6,920 0 0 0 6,597 6,597 0 0 0

10-14 14,079 7,207 7,207 0 0 0 6,872 6,871 1 0 0

15-19 14,737 7,542 7,375 162 0 4 7,195 6,588 587 0 21

20-24 15,581 7,986 5,529 2,301 1 155 7,596 3,650 3,683 4 259

25-29 16,514 8,475 2,909 5,076 2 487 8,039 1,333 6,164 15 526

30-34 17,289 8,857 1,661 6,454 6 736 8,432 568 7,171 35 659

35-39 17,901 9,142 1,183 7,095 13 851 8,759 349 7,601 64 745

40-44 18,425 9,367 966 7,430 23 947 9,059 269 7,835 114 840

45-49 18,878 9,549 851 7,642 39 1,016 9,330 232 7,999 180 917

50-54 19,584 9,867 821 7,950 68 1,027 9,717 233 8,225 285 974

55-59 19,947 10,008 772 8,169 116 951 9,938 239 8,269 466 964

60-64 19,719 9,840 703 8,132 191 814 9,879 235 7,986 756 902

65-69 19,303 9,540 647 7,856 329 707 9,763 231 7,451 1,222 858

70-74 18,869 9,179 607 7,384 555 634 9,690 246 6,692 1,902 850

75-79 18,144 8,600 563 6,628 847 562 9,544 297 5,601 2,779 867

80-84 14,832 6,727 381 4,942 1,010 394 8,105 291 3,760 3,335 720

85-89 10,825 4,545 225 3,070 1,004 246 6,280 257 2,088 3,397 538

90-94 6,343 2,386 93 1,399 765 128 3,957 166 845 2,615 330

95 + 4,569 1,406 37 546 726 97 3,163 118 277 2,394 373

0-19 55,272 28,293 28,127 162 0 4 26,979 26,370 588 0 21

20-64 163,839 83,090 15,396 60,251 459 6,985 80,749 7,108 64,935 1,919 6,787

50-64 59,250 29,715 2,296 24,252 375 2,792 29,535 707 24,481 1,507 2,840

62-64 11,783 5,872 413 4,860 126 473 5,911 140 4,741 497 533

65 + 92,885 42,383 2,553 31,825 5,237 2,768 50,502 1,605 26,715 17,644 4,538

20-65 167,733 85,024 15,529 61,851 511 7,133 82,709 7,154 66,475 2,119 6,961

20-66 171,610 86,945 15,660 63,438 569 7,278 84,665 7,200 67,991 2,340 7,134

20-67 175,471 88,854 15,790 65,011 634 7,419 86,617 7,247 69,483 2,582 7,305

20-68 179,315 90,749 15,917 66,567 707 7,557 88,566 7,293 70,948 2,849 7,476

20-69 183,142 92,631 16,043 68,107 788 7,692 90,511 7,340 72,386 3,141 7,645

66 + 88,991 40,449 2,420 30,225 5,185 2,620 48,542 1,559 25,175 17,444 4,363

67 + 85,114 38,528 2,288 28,638 5,127 2,475 46,586 1,513 23,659 17,223 4,191

68 + 81,253 36,619 2,159 27,065 5,062 2,334 44,634 1,467 22,167 16,980 4,019

69 + 77,409 34,724 2,031 25,508 4,989 2,196 42,685 1,421 20,702 16,714 3,849

70 + 73,582 32,843 1,905 23,969 4,908 2,061 40,739 1,374 19,264 16,422 3,679

Total 311,996 153,767 46,076 92,238 5,696 9,757 158,230 35,084 92,238 19,563 11,345

Table 21d.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report High Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
113

High Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2075:

0-4 12,628 6,466 6,466 0 0 0 6,162 6,162 0 0 0

5-9 13,203 6,759 6,759 0 0 0 6,444 6,444 0 0 0

10-14 13,747 7,037 7,037 0 0 0 6,710 6,709 1 0 0

15-19 14,364 7,351 7,189 158 0 4 7,013 6,421 572 0 20

20-24 15,167 7,774 5,383 2,240 0 151 7,392 3,550 3,587 3 252

25-29 16,105 8,268 2,841 4,949 2 476 7,837 1,296 6,015 14 513

30-34 16,908 8,664 1,629 6,309 6 721 8,244 554 7,013 33 644

35-39 17,529 8,955 1,162 6,946 12 835 8,574 343 7,441 61 730

40-44 18,007 9,158 946 7,264 22 926 8,849 264 7,656 108 821

45-49 18,442 9,333 835 7,466 37 995 9,109 229 7,813 171 897

50-54 18,839 9,498 784 7,664 62 987 9,342 219 7,933 263 927

55-59 19,442 9,762 765 7,958 108 932 9,680 229 8,084 435 932

60-64 19,641 9,810 720 8,084 182 824 9,831 238 7,968 721 903

65-69 19,078 9,442 645 7,780 310 708 9,635 235 7,390 1,159 852

70-74 18,239 8,892 579 7,184 512 617 9,347 228 6,533 1,775 811

75-79 17,255 8,209 512 6,370 780 547 9,046 233 5,443 2,573 797

80-84 15,688 7,145 420 5,220 1,049 455 8,544 264 4,071 3,432 776

85-89 11,636 4,933 234 3,336 1,071 292 6,703 231 2,327 3,553 592

90-94 7,220 2,754 104 1,617 872 161 4,467 166 1,002 2,903 396

95 + 4,951 1,568 37 627 794 110 3,383 111 322 2,567 383

0-19 53,941 27,612 27,451 158 0 4 26,329 25,736 573 0 20

20-64 160,080 81,222 15,065 58,878 431 6,847 78,858 6,921 63,510 1,809 6,618

50-64 57,922 29,070 2,269 23,706 352 2,743 28,853 686 23,985 1,419 2,762

62-64 11,767 5,870 425 4,845 120 481 5,897 144 4,742 475 537

65 + 94,068 42,943 2,531 32,133 5,388 2,891 51,125 1,467 27,087 17,963 4,607

20-65 163,963 83,152 15,201 60,473 480 6,997 80,810 6,968 65,048 2,001 6,793

20-66 167,814 85,063 15,333 62,051 535 7,143 82,751 7,016 66,558 2,211 6,966

20-67 171,631 86,953 15,462 63,609 597 7,285 84,678 7,063 68,038 2,441 7,136

20-68 175,412 88,820 15,588 65,146 665 7,422 86,592 7,109 69,486 2,693 7,304

20-69 179,158 90,664 15,711 66,659 741 7,554 88,494 7,155 70,900 2,968 7,470

66 + 90,185 41,012 2,395 30,538 5,338 2,740 49,173 1,420 25,549 17,772 4,432

67 + 86,334 39,101 2,263 28,960 5,283 2,595 47,233 1,373 24,039 17,562 4,260

68 + 82,517 37,212 2,134 27,402 5,222 2,453 45,305 1,326 22,559 17,332 4,089

69 + 78,736 35,345 2,008 25,866 5,154 2,316 43,391 1,279 21,111 17,080 3,921

70 + 74,990 33,500 1,885 24,353 5,078 2,184 41,490 1,233 19,697 16,805 3,755

Total 308,089 151,777 45,047 91,170 5,819 9,742 156,312 34,124 91,170 19,773 11,246

Table 21d.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report High Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
114

High Cost 

Alternative

Sex and Marital Status

Male Female

Age

group Total Total Single Married Widowed Divorced Total Single Married Widowed Divorced

2080:

0-4 12,321 6,309 6,309 0 0 0 6,012 6,012 0 0 0

5-9 12,891 6,599 6,599 0 0 0 6,292 6,292 0 0 0

10-14 13,433 6,876 6,876 0 0 0 6,557 6,556 1 0 0

15-19 14,033 7,182 7,024 154 0 4 6,851 6,273 558 0 20

20-24 14,796 7,585 5,253 2,185 0 147 7,210 3,462 3,499 3 246

25-29 15,693 8,058 2,771 4,822 2 464 7,635 1,259 5,863 13 499

30-34 16,503 8,459 1,594 6,155 5 705 8,043 538 6,847 31 627

35-39 17,153 8,766 1,142 6,794 11 819 8,387 335 7,281 58 713

40-44 17,640 8,975 930 7,114 21 910 8,665 259 7,498 103 805

45-49 18,030 9,129 818 7,302 35 974 8,901 225 7,639 162 877

50-54 18,413 9,288 770 7,492 58 968 9,125 216 7,755 248 906

55-59 18,719 9,406 731 7,679 99 897 9,314 216 7,809 402 887

60-64 19,167 9,582 714 7,889 169 810 9,585 229 7,808 674 874

65-69 19,036 9,434 664 7,756 295 719 9,602 238 7,401 1,108 855

70-74 18,077 8,831 580 7,146 485 621 9,246 232 6,515 1,692 808

75-79 16,749 7,994 492 6,239 726 537 8,755 217 5,351 2,421 765

80-84 15,012 6,875 386 5,063 978 448 8,137 210 3,992 3,216 720

85-89 12,413 5,299 262 3,569 1,127 340 7,114 211 2,550 3,709 644

90-94 7,886 3,050 112 1,794 950 194 4,836 152 1,140 3,103 441

95 + 5,711 1,852 42 746 927 137 3,858 113 393 2,912 441

0-19 52,679 26,966 26,808 154 0 4 25,712 25,133 559 0 20

20-64 156,114 79,248 14,723 57,432 401 6,693 76,866 6,740 61,999 1,694 6,434

50-64 56,300 28,276 2,215 23,060 327 2,674 28,024 661 23,372 1,324 2,668

62-64 11,543 5,764 426 4,749 113 476 5,780 139 4,671 446 524

65 + 94,883 43,335 2,538 32,313 5,488 2,995 51,548 1,373 27,341 18,160 4,674

20-65 159,963 81,164 14,862 59,011 448 6,844 78,799 6,787 63,529 1,875 6,607

20-66 163,799 83,070 14,998 60,580 500 6,992 80,729 6,835 65,039 2,076 6,780

20-67 167,614 84,961 15,131 62,135 559 7,136 82,653 6,883 66,523 2,296 6,952

20-68 171,399 86,832 15,261 63,672 624 7,276 84,567 6,930 67,977 2,538 7,121

20-69 175,150 88,682 15,387 65,187 696 7,412 86,468 6,978 69,399 2,802 7,289

66 + 91,034 41,419 2,400 30,734 5,442 2,844 49,615 1,326 25,811 17,978 4,500

67 + 87,198 39,513 2,264 29,164 5,389 2,696 47,685 1,278 24,301 17,778 4,327

68 + 83,384 37,623 2,131 27,609 5,331 2,552 45,761 1,230 22,817 17,558 4,156

69 + 79,598 35,751 2,001 26,072 5,265 2,412 43,847 1,182 21,362 17,316 3,986

70 + 75,847 33,901 1,875 24,557 5,193 2,276 41,946 1,135 19,941 17,052 3,818

Total 303,676 149,550 44,070 89,899 5,889 9,691 154,126 33,246 89,899 19,854 11,127

Table 21d.—January 1 Population in the Social Security Area by Age Group, Sex and 

Marital Status, Under the 1997 Trustees Report High Cost Alternative 

for Calendar Years 2000-2080 (Cont.)

(in thousands)
115

Table 22 and Figure 5 illustrate the change in the median age of the total population and over 65 population throughout the projection period. The median age of the total population has been increasing since 

1970. For the intermediate alternative, the median age is projected to increase slowly over the entire 

projection period. The mean age of the population 65 and older has increased approximately six years 

since 1940. For the intermediate alternative, the median age of the 65 and older population is projected 

to increase slightly until the year 2006, decline slightly during the next 15 years, resume increasing until 

2043, and then to fluctuate mildly for the remainder of the period.

The patterns of increase are mainly due to past and assumed future patterns of fertility. The aging and 

dying off of the "baby boom generation" (those born during the late 1940's through the mid 1960's) is a 

major reason for the median age of the population 65 and older increasing slightly, then stabilizing. Also 

contributing to the increase in median age is the assumed decrease in mortality. As people are assumed 

to live longer, the median age of the population increases. This factor has more effect on the median age 

under the high cost alternative, where greater mortality reductions are assumed. Sustained higher future 

fertility rates, as assumed for the low cost alternative tend to keep the median age at lower levels.

 Figure 5.—Median Age of Total Population and 65 and over Population

Actual and Projected Intermediate Alternative

Calendar Year

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

Population 65 and older

Total Population
116

Table 22.—Median Age of the Population by Calendar Year, and Alternative

Calendar year Total 65 +

1940 29.2 71.2

1950 30.3 71.5

1960 29.4 75.6

1965 28.1 75.8

1970 27.8 76.2

1975 28.4 76.5

1980 29.9 76.6

1985 31.2 76.7

1990 32.6 76.9

1995 33.9 77.1

1996 34.3 77.1

Low Cost Alternative Intermediate Alternative High Cost Alternative

Total 65 + Total 65 + Total 65 +

2000 35.3 77.4 35.4 77.5 35.5 77.5

2005 36.2 77.9 36.5 78.0 36.8 78.1

2010 36.8 78.0 37.5 78.1 38.0 78.3

2015 36.8 77.2 37.8 77.4 38.8 77.7

2020 37.1 76.5 38.5 76.7 39.7 77.0

2025 37.4 76.5 39.2 76.7 41.0 77.0

2030 37.8 76.7 40.0 77.0 42.2 77.3

2035 37.8 77.2 40.7 77.6 43.5 78.0

2040 37.5 77.9 41.1 78.5 44.7 79.0

2045 37.2 78.4 41.3 79.1 45.7 79.8

2050 37.0 78.4 41.4 79.3 46.4 80.1

2055 37.0 77.9 41.6 78.8 47.0 79.8

2060 37.0 77.7 41.9 78.5 47.7 79.5

2065 37.0 77.7 42.1 78.6 48.4 79.5

2070 37.0 78.0 42.3 78.9 49.0 79.9

2075 37.0 78.2 42.5 79.4 49.4 80.6

2080 37.0 78.1 42.6 79.4 49.8 81.0
117

B. Population by Marital Status

Marital status is important in determining benefit costs, present and future. In 1995, 42 percent of the 

population was estimated to be single (never married), 46 percent currently married, 6 percent widowed 

and 6 percent divorced.

Figures 6a and 6b show the distribution of the population by marital status in 1995, and the projected 

distribution under the intermediate alternative in 2080, respectively.

 Figure 6a.—Distribution of the Population by Marital Status, Ages 0 through 100

January 1, 1995

 Age

The proportion of the population which is projected to be single in 2080 under the intermediate alternative is 39 percent, 3 percentage points less than current levels, reflecting differences in the age distribution of the population. Particularly interesting to note is the increase in never marrieds over age 40, from 

less than 10 percent in 1995 to greater than 10 percent in 2080. The proportion projected to be married 

under the intermediate alternative is 46 percent, the same as current levels. The proportion widowed in 

2080 is also projected to be unchanged, at 6 percent. The current high incidence of divorce and the 

future assumptions concerning marriage and divorce result in an increase in the proportion divorced to 8 

percent by 2080. The percent divorced among the 60 and older is at or above the 10 percent level, much 

different from the less than 10 percent of today.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Single Married W idowed

Divorced
118

 Figure 6b.— Distribution of the Population by Marital Status, Ages 0 through 100 

January 1, 2080

Intermediate Alternative

 Age

The proportion of the population in 2080 under the low cost alternative which is projected to be single is 

49 percent, married is 37 percent, widowed is 5 percent and divorced is 9 percent. The proportion of the 

population in 2080 under the high cost alternative which is projected to be single is 25 percent, married 

is 59 percent, widowed is 8 percent and divorced is 7 percent. The spread among the alternatives reflects 

the differences in the projected marriage and divorce rates and in the age distribution of the population 

among Aged Population

C. Aged Population

A rough estimate of the growth in the number of persons receiving Social Security retirement benefits 

can be obtained from examining the population age 65 and older given in Table 23. The projected population at age 65 and older is also shown graphically in Figure 7. The growth in the number of people age 

65 or older slows down around the year 2000 due to the low fertility experience during the 1930's. This 

slowing down is not as great under the intermediate and high cost alternatives because assumed mortality reductions are greater than under the low cost alternative. The high fertility of the 1950's and 1960's 

results in sharp steady growth in the population age 65 and older for the period 2010 through 2030 under 

all of the alternatives. By the year 2080, the population age 65 and older has increased significantly as a 

percentage of total population from 13 percent in 1995, to 17 percent under the low cost alternative, 23 

percent under the intermediate alternative, and 31 percent under the high cost alternative.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Single Married

Widowed

Divorced
119

 Figure 7.—Social Security Area Population Aged 65 and Older

(in millions), 1940-2080

Actual and Projected by Alternative

Calendar Year

Table 22 and Figure 5 show the change in the median age of the population ages 65 and older. This 

median age increases until around 2010, when the "baby boom generation" begins to reach 65. As the 

"baby boom generation" ages, the median age once again increases. At the same time the "baby boom 

generation" ages, the low fertility period of the 1970's and early 1980's also contributes to the increase in 

the median age. In addition to the historical fertility experience, mortality reduction is also a factor in 

the change in the median age of the population ages 65 and older. In general, with all other factors held 

constant, reductions in mortality result in longer life and higher median age.

D. Demographic Indicators

The projected population is summarized in Table 23 by broad age group, marital status and alternative 

for selected years. The age groups are under 20 years, 20-64 years, and 65 years or older. Marital status 

categories are single (never married), currently married, currently widowed, and currently divorced. No 

information about prior marital status is included. Therefore, the marital status shown is the status the 

person is currently in, as of the year shown.

The disunity ratio given in Table 23 is the ratio of the number of divorced persons to the sum of the numbers of married and widowed persons. This ratio is assumed to increase from .122 in 1995 to .212 and 

.160 in 2080 under the low cost and intermediate alternatives, respectively, and to decrease to .101 in 

2080 under the high cost alternative.

The total dependency ratio given in Table 23 is the ratio of the number of persons who are under age 20 

or over age 64 to the number of persons aged 20 through 64. This ratio views the possible future financial burdens to be borne by workers from a somewhat broader perspective. Under all three alternatives, 

20

40

60

80

100

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

High Cost

Intermediate

Low Cost
120

the total dependency ratio is projected to decrease from .709 in 1995 to a minimum around 2010, reflecting the small number of children resulting from the low fertility rates experienced since 1970 and projected to be experienced in the near future, and the slow growth in the aged population resulting from the 

low fertility rates experienced during the 1930's. Shortly after 2010, the total dependency ratios begin to 

rise, largely reflecting the same effects that influence the aged dependency ratios. Projected values of 

the total dependency ratio in 2080 range from .802 under the low cost alternative to .945 under the high 

cost alternative or roughly from 13 to 33 percent higher than the 1995 value.

The aged dependency ratio shown in Table 23 and Figure 8 is the ratio of the number of persons aged 65 

or older to the number of persons aged 20 to 64. This ratio is closely related to the ratio of retirees to 

workers and, thus, provides an index of possible future demographic pressures which may be faced by 

the OASDI program. The Social Security Amendments of 1983, in order to insure the continued ability 

of Social Security to pay benefits, raised the normal retirement age. For workers who attain age 62 in 

2000 through 2004, eligibility age for full benefits (called the normal retirement age) is increased to age 

65 plus two months for each year after 1999 the worker attains age 62. This raises the normal retirement 

age to 66 in 2005 for persons born in 1943 through 1954. The normal retirement age is again raised for 

workers who attain age 62 in 2017 through 2021 to age 66 plus two months for each year after 2016 the 

worker attains age 62. This raises the normal retirement age to 67 for persons born in 1960 and later. 

Information provided in Table 21 allows calculation of the aged dependency ratios for retirement ages 65 

through 70.

Under the low cost alternative, the aged dependency ratio for retirement age 65 is projected to increase 

from 0.214 in 1995 to 0.327 in the year 2035 and then to decrease to an ultimate level of 0.308. Under 

the intermediate alternative, the aged dependency ratio for retirement age 65 is projected to decrease 

slightly until 2005, then to steadily increase to 0.421 in 2080. Under the high cost alternative, the aged 

dependency ratio for retirement age 65 is projected to decrease slightly until 2005, then to steadily 

increase to 0.608 in 2080. A sharp increase in the aged dependency ratio shortly after the turn of the century appears certain as the "baby boom generation" attains age 65 while the "baby bust" generation'' 

(those born during the 1970's and 1980's) attains age 20. The magnitude of the increase, however, will 

depend upon future mortality reductions among the aged and future fertility rates. Even under low cost 

assumptions, however, the aged dependency ratio will have increased about 50 percent by the year 2030.
121

 Figure 8.—Aged Dependency Ratio, 1940 through 2080

(Ratio of Population Aged 65 and older to Population Aged 20 through 64)

Actual and Projected by Alternative

Calendar Year

Table 23.—Population in the Social Security Area as of January 1 and Selected Ratios by 

Year and Alternative 

Alternative 

and year

Population (in thousands)

Marital status

Total

Age Dependency ratio Disunity

Single Married Widowed Divorced 0-19 20-64 65 + Aged Total ratio

1940 66,162 64,943 8,546 1,636 141,287 48,389 83,212 9,686 .116 .698 .022

1950 66,862 78,926 9,790 2,213 157,791 53,236 92,008 12,547 .136 .715 .025

1960 85,286 89,500 10,959 2,974 188,719 72,158 99,493 17,068 .172 .897 .030

1965 92,887 94,781 11,497 3,694 202,859 79,589 104,355 18,915 .181 .944 .035

1970 96,478 100,248 12,403 4,481 213,610 80,553 112,367 20,690 .184 .901 .040

1975 97,343 106,286 13,051 6,939 223,619 78,849 121,790 22,980 .189 .836 .058

1980 100,299 109,480 13,754 10,442 233,975 74,806 133,299 25,870 .194 .755 .085

1985 105,242 112,311 14,749 13,626 245,928 73,149 144,036 28,742 .200 .707 .107

1990 110,553 116,762 15,452 15,915 258,681 74,906 152,056 31,719 .209 .701 .120

1991 111,111 118,306 15,688 16,172 261,277 75,316 153,734 32,227 .210 .700 .121

1992 111,738 119,837 15,925 16,428 263,928 75,998 155,203 32,728 .211 .701 .121

1993 112,421 121,400 16,142 16,658 266,620 76,889 156,483 33,247 .212 .704 .121

1994 113,074 122,873 16,344 16,909 269,200 77,829 157,723 33,648 .213 .707 .121

1995 113,684 124,288 16,538 17,149 271,659 78,688 158,949 34,022 .214 .709 .122

1996 114,789 124,839 16,524 17,945 274,096 79,414 160,293 34,389 .215 .710 .127

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

High Cost

Intermediate
122

Alternative 

and year

Population (in thousands)

Marital status

Total

Age Dependency ratio Disunity

Single Married Widowed Divorced 0-19 20-64 65 + Aged Total ratio

Low Cost Alternative :

1997 116,053 125,626 16,516 18,672 276,868 80,172 162,023 34,674 .214 .709 .131

1998 117,319 126,392 16,516 19,365 279,592 80,828 163,895 34,869 .213 .706 .136

1999 118,588 127,148 16,522 20,026 282,284 81,411 165,859 35,014 .211 .702 .139

2000 119,859 127,900 16,530 20,661 284,949 81,848 167,914 35,188 .210 .697 .143

2001 121,129 128,645 16,541 21,278 287,592 82,199 170,011 35,382 .208 .692 .147

2002 122,399 129,379 16,553 21,887 290,217 82,516 172,161 35,540 .206 .686 .150

2003 123,671 130,101 16,566 22,490 292,828 82,801 174,297 35,730 .205 .680 .153

2004 124,951 130,822 16,580 23,079 295,431 83,143 176,323 35,966 .204 .676 .157

2005 126,242 131,539 16,595 23,656 298,032 83,489 178,334 36,209 .203 .671 .160

2010 133,084 135,029 16,733 26,401 311,247 85,101 187,518 38,628 .206 .660 .174

2015 140,762 138,179 17,101 28,964 325,005 87,033 194,279 43,693 .225 .673 .187

2020 149,408 140,328 17,818 31,337 338,890 90,933 197,628 50,329 .255 .715 .198

2025 158,587 141,503 18,860 33,320 352,271 95,158 199,080 58,032 .292 .769 .208

2030 167,174 142,777 20,016 34,610 364,576 98,784 201,206 64,587 .321 .812 .213

2035 175,266 144,269 20,977 35,477 375,989 101,777 206,614 67,597 .327 .820 .215

2040 183,083 146,246 21,510 36,105 386,942 104,748 213,758 68,436 .320 .810 .215

2045 190,760 148,895 21,570 36,655 397,880 108,078 221,335 68,467 .309 .798 .215

2050 198,323 152,210 21,333 37,251 409,117 111,862 227,523 69,732 .306 .798 .215

2055 205,764 156,118 21,072 37,967 420,921 115,681 233,452 71,788 .308 .803 .214

2060 213,057 160,517 21,030 38,822 433,427 119,285 239,457 74,684 .312 .810 .214

2065 220,218 165,291 21,281 39,802 446,591 122,763 247,229 76,599 .310 .806 .213

2070 227,287 170,323 21,728 40,879 460,217 126,349 255,447 78,421 .307 .802 .213

2075 234,317 175,540 22,230 42,032 474,118 130,134 263,418 80,566 .306 .800 .213

2080 241,357 180,921 22,724 43,255 488,257 134,038 270,892 83,327 .308 .802 .212

Intermediate Alternative :

1997 115,842 125,576 16,530 18,641 276,589 80,066 161,842 34,681 .214 .709 .131

1998 116,849 126,333 16,542 19,288 279,013 80,595 163,524 34,894 .213 .706 .135

1999 117,814 127,139 16,558 19,881 281,393 81,029 165,295 35,069 .212 .702 .138

2000 118,737 127,992 16,576 20,427 283,732 81,296 167,155 35,281 .211 .697 .141

2001 119,615 128,884 16,596 20,941 286,035 81,453 169,057 35,525 .210 .692 .144

2002 120,450 129,812 16,614 21,431 288,308 81,553 171,014 35,741 .209 .686 .146

2003 121,246 130,772 16,632 21,903 290,553 81,597 172,960 35,997 .208 .680 .149

2004 122,006 131,769 16,649 22,352 292,777 81,672 174,800 36,304 .208 .675 .151

2005 122,736 132,802 16,666 22,779 294,983 81,727 176,629 36,627 .207 .670 .152

2010 126,112 138,356 16,790 24,666 305,924 81,494 184,931 39,499 .214 .654 .159

2015 129,179 144,193 17,126 26,231 316,730 80,886 190,784 45,060 .236 .660 .163

2020 132,134 149,430 17,813 27,503 326,879 81,681 192,969 52,230 .271 .694 .164

2025 134,971 153,528 18,866 28,477 335,843 82,655 192,621 60,566 .314 .744 .165

2030 137,461 156,630 20,142 29,156 343,389 83,224 192,283 67,881 .353 .786 .165

2035 139,503 159,036 21,362 29,611 349,513 83,250 194,584 71,679 .368 .796 .164

2040 141,187 161,074 22,264 29,900 354,426 83,270 197,978 73,178 .370 .790 .163

2045 142,665 162,962 22,728 30,094 358,448 83,596 201,201 73,651 .366 .782 .162

2050 143,995 164,832 22,835 30,261 361,923 84,104 202,608 75,211 .371 .786 .161

2055 145,192 166,763 22,793 30,462 365,210 84,585 203,162 77,462 .381 .798 .161

Table 23.—Population in the Social Security Area as of January 1 and Selected Ratios by 

Year and Alternative (Cont.)
123

Note: The aged dependency ratio is the population 65 and over divided by the population 20 to 64. The total dependency ratio is the population under 20 plus the population 65 and over divided by the population 20 to 64. The disunity ratio is the divorced population 

divided by the married population plus the widowed population.

Since not everyone retires at age 65 and since the minimum age at which unreduced benefits are payable 

is scheduled to increase, it is interesting to observe the aged dependency ratio using cutoff ages other 

than 65. Table 24 displays these ratios at age 62, when retired worker benefits are first available; at age 

65, the current normal retirement age; at age 66, which will be the normal retirement age beginning in 

2005; at age 67, which will be the normal retirement age beginning in 2022; at age 70, after which 

delayed retirement credits can no longer be earned; and at ages 72 and 75. The normal retirement age is 

the minimum age at which unreduced retirement benefits are payable. People at ages lower than the normal retirement age receive reduced benefits.

Alternative 

and year

Population (in thousands)

Marital status

Total

Age Dependency ratio Disunity

Single Married Widowed Divorced 0-19 20-64 65 + Aged Total ratio

2060 146,265 168,740 22,831 30,721 368,557 84,918 203,070 80,570 .397 .815 .160

2065 147,229 170,677 23,075 31,022 372,004 85,159 204,228 82,617 .405 .822 .160

2070 148,099 172,461 23,483 31,337 375,379 85,433 205,713 84,234 .409 .825 .160

2075 148,896 174,046 23,904 31,637 378,484 85,788 206,911 85,785 .415 .829 .160

2080 149,647 175,492 24,214 31,920 381,272 86,177 207,605 87,491 .421 .837 .160

High Cost Alternative :

1997 115,617 125,583 16,537 18,592 276,329 79,969 161,675 34,685 .215 .709 .131

1998 116,336 126,440 16,557 19,168 278,501 80,387 163,200 34,915 .214 .707 .134

1999 116,938 127,442 16,581 19,651 280,612 80,688 164,807 35,117 .213 .703 .136

2000 117,422 128,566 16,612 20,057 282,656 80,799 166,491 35,366 .212 .698 .138

2001 117,790 129,801 16,647 20,402 284,639 80,778 168,208 35,654 .212 .692 .139

2002 118,048 131,137 16,684 20,700 286,569 80,677 169,971 35,921 .211 .686 .140

2003 118,201 132,571 16,720 20,960 288,453 80,498 171,721 36,234 .211 .680 .140

2004 118,257 134,109 16,753 21,181 290,300 80,326 173,369 36,606 .211 .674 .140

2005 118,224 135,746 16,782 21,366 292,118 80,111 175,010 36,997 .211 .669 .140

2010 116,924 145,206 16,893 21,898 300,921 78,156 182,499 40,266 .221 .649 .135

2015 113,945 156,099 17,128 21,944 309,116 75,166 187,672 46,278 .247 .647 .127

2020 109,876 166,944 17,680 21,586 316,086 73,098 189,003 53,985 .286 .672 .117

2025 105,726 175,862 18,641 21,181 321,410 71,183 187,232 62,995 .336 .717 .109

2030 102,509 181,517 19,979 21,189 325,194 69,175 184,838 71,182 .385 .759 .105

2035 99,445 185,107 21,439 21,295 327,287 66,884 184,407 75,997 .412 .775 .103

2040 96,402 187,208 22,738 21,374 327,721 64,783 184,432 78,507 .426 .777 .102

2045 93,518 188,131 23,672 21,381 326,702 63,094 183,756 79,852 .435 .778 .101

2050 90,773 188,260 24,216 21,330 324,579 61,459 180,963 82,158 .454 .794 .100

2055 88,133 187,907 24,482 21,265 321,787 59,848 176,913 85,027 .481 .819 .100

2060 85,633 187,190 24,660 21,214 318,696 58,249 171,721 88,727 .517 .856 .100

2065 83,307 186,081 24,909 21,168 315,466 56,710 167,540 91,215 .544 .883 .100

2070 81,159 184,476 25,259 21,102 311,996 55,272 163,839 92,885 .567 .904 .101

2075 79,171 182,340 25,592 20,987 308,089 53,941 160,080 94,068 .588 .925 .101

2080 77,316 179,798 25,743 20,818 303,676 52,679 156,114 94,883 .608 .945 .101

Table 23.—Population in the Social Security Area as of January 1 and Selected Ratios by 

Year and Alternative (Cont.)
124

Table 24.—Aged Dependency Ratios at Selected Retirement Ages by 

Calendar Year and Alternative 

Alternative

 and year

Age

62 65 66 67 70 72 75

1940 .158 .116 .104 .093 .065 .049 .032

1950 .185 .136 .122 .110 .077 .060 .039

1960 .226 .172 .155 .140 .100 .078 .052

1965 .236 .181 .165 .150 .110 .087 .059

1970 .241 .184 .168 .153 .113 .091 .063

1975 .246 .189 .172 .156 .116 .093 .066

1980 .250 .194 .177 .162 .120 .097 .069

1985 .257 .200 .183 .168 .126 .103 .073

1990 .263 .209 .192 .176 .132 .109 .078

1995 .263 .214 .198 .183 .141 .117 .084

1996 .262 .215 .199 .184 .143 .118 .085

Low Cost Alternative :

1997 .261 .214 .199 .184 .143 .119 .087

1998 .260 .213 .198 .184 .144 .120 .088

1999 .258 .211 .197 .184 .144 .120 .089

2000 .257 .210 .195 .182 .144 .121 .089

2005 .255 .203 .188 .175 .138 .118 .089

2010 .269 .206 .189 .173 .133 .111 .084

2015 .297 .225 .204 .185 .136 .111 .081

2020 .339 .255 .231 .209 .153 .122 .085

2025 .382 .292 .265 .240 .176 .140 .098

2030 .403 .321 .295 .269 .201 .162 .114

2035 .407 .327 .303 .280 .219 .180 .129

2040 .393 .320 .299 .278 .219 .184 .139

2045 .388 .309 .287 .266 .211 .180 .136

2050 .385 .306 .283 .261 .203 .170 .130

2055 .390 .308 .283 .261 .202 .168 .125

2060 .389 .312 .288 .266 .204 .169 .125

2065 .385 .310 .287 .266 .208 .174 .128

2070 .382 .307 .285 .264 .207 .174 .131

2075 .383 .306 .283 .262 .205 .172 .130

2080 .386 .308 .284 .262 .204 .171 .128

Intermediate Alternative :

1997 .261 .214 .199 .185 .144 .119 .087

1998 .261 .213 .199 .185 .145 .120 .088

1999 .260 .212 .198 .185 .145 .121 .089

2000 .259 .211 .197 .184 .145 .122 .090

2005 .260 .207 .193 .179 .142 .121 .092

2010 .278 .214 .197 .180 .139 .117 .089

2015 .311 .236 .215 .195 .144 .118 .087

2020 .358 .271 .246 .223 .164 .132 .093

2025 .410 .314 .286 .260 .192 .155 .109

2030 .441 .353 .325 .298 .224 .182 .129

2035 .455 .368 .342 .317 .250 .207 .151

2040 .450 .370 .346 .323 .257 .219 .167

2045 .454 .366 .340 .317 .255 .220 .170

2050 .462 .371 .344 .319 .252 .214 .167

2055 .479 .381 .352 .326 .256 .216 .164

2060 .491 .397 .368 .340 .265 .222 .168

2065 .497 .405 .377 .350 .278 .234 .176

2070 .503 .409 .382 .355 .284 .242 .187

2075 .511 .415 .386 .359 .287 .246 .191

2080 .519 .421 .392 .365 .291 .248 .193
125

Note: The aged dependency ratio calculated at a given age is the ratio of the number of people in the population as of January 1 who are as 

old or older than the given age to the number of people who are between 19 and the given age.

In Table 25 the normal retirement ages necessary to maintain aged dependency ratios of .20, .25, and .30 

are given. In order to maintain an aged dependency ratio of .20, the approximate age 65 dependency 

ratio during the period 1980 through 1990, the aged dependency ratio in 2080 must be calculated at ages 

71, 75, and 80 under the low cost, intermediate and high cost alternatives, respectively. Under all three 

alternatives, the normal retirement age necessary to maintain a selected aged dependency ratio increases 

rapidly from 2010 to 2040.

Alternative

 and year

Age

62 65 66 67 70 72 75

High Cost Alternative :

1997 .262 .215 .200 .185 .144 .120 .087

1998 .261 .214 .200 .185 .145 .121 .088

1999 .261 .213 .199 .185 .146 .122 .090

2000 .260 .212 .198 .185 .146 .123 .091

2005 .265 .211 .196 .182 .145 .124 .094

2010 .287 .221 .203 .186 .145 .122 .093

2015 .323 .247 .225 .204 .152 .126 .093

2020 .376 .286 .260 .236 .176 .142 .101

2025 .436 .336 .307 .280 .208 .169 .121

2030 .479 .385 .355 .326 .247 .202 .146

2035 .506 .412 .383 .357 .283 .237 .175

2040 .514 .426 .399 .374 .301 .257 .199

2045 .535 .435 .405 .379 .309 .268 .210

2050 .561 .454 .423 .393 .313 .269 .214

2055 .601 .481 .445 .413 .328 .280 .216

2060 .636 .517 .480 .445 .350 .296 .229

2065 .664 .544 .508 .474 .380 .323 .247

2070 .688 .567 .531 .496 .402 .346 .271

2075 .714 .588 .550 .514 .419 .362 .287

2080 .736 .608 .569 .532 .433 .375 .299

Table 24.—Aged Dependency Ratios at Selected Retirement Ages by 

Calendar Year and Alternative (Cont.)
126

Table 25.— Retirement Age at Selected Aged Dependency Ratios by 

Calendar Year and Alternative 

Alternative

and year

Dependency ratio

.20 .25 .30

1940 59 57 55

1950 61 59 57

1960 64 61 59

1965 64 62 60

1970 65 62 60

1975 65 62 60

1980 65 63 60

1985 65 63 61

1990 66 63 61

1995 66 63 60

Low Cost Alternative :

2000 66 63 60

2005 66 63 60

2010 66 63 61

2015 67 64 62

2020 68 66 64

2025 69 67 65

2030 71 68 66

2035 71 69 67

2040 72 69 66

2045 71 68 66

2050 71 68 66

2055 71 68 66

2060 71 68 66

2065 71 68 66

2070 71 68 66

2075 71 68 66

2080 71 68 66

Intermediate Alternative :

2000 66 63 60

2005 66 63 61

2010 66 64 62

2015 67 65 63

2020 69 66 64

2025 70 68 66

2030 72 69 67

2035 73 70 68

2040 74 71 69

2045 74 71 68

2050 73 71 68

2055 73 71 69

2060 74 71 69

2065 74 72 70

2070 75 72 70

2075 75 72 70

2080 75 72 70
127

Note: The aged dependency ratio calculated at a given age is the ratio of the number of people in the population as of January 1 who are as 

old or older than the given age to the number of people in the population as of January 1 who are between age 19 and the given age.

Alternative

and year

Dependency ratio

.20 .25 .30

High Cost Alternative :

2000 66 63 60

2005 66 63 61

2010 67 64 62

2015 68 65 63

2020 69 67 65

2025 71 69 67

2030 73 70 68

2035 74 72 70

2040 75 73 71

2045 76 73 71

2050 76 73 71

2055 76 74 72

2060 77 74 72

2065 78 75 73

2070 79 76 74

2075 80 77 75

2080 80 78 75

Table 25.— Retirement Age at Selected Aged Dependency Ratios by 

Calendar Year and Alternative (Cont.)