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## 2015 OASDI Trustees Report

Office of the Chief Actuary
Actuarial Publications
2015 Trustees Report
ContentsTablesFigures

### Table of Contents

	I.	INTRODUCTION

	II.	OVERVIEW

	A.	HIGHLIGHTS

	B.	TRUST FUND FINANCIAL OPERATIONS IN 2014

	C.	ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE

	D.	PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE FINANCIAL STATUS

	E.	CONCLUSION

	III.	FINANCIAL OPERATIONS OF THE TRUST FUNDS AND LEGISLATIVE CHANGES IN THE LAST YEAR

	A.	OPERATIONS OF THE OLD‐AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE (OASI) AND DISABILITY INSURANCE (DI) TRUST FUNDS, IN CALENDAR YEAR 2014

	1.	OASI Trust Fund

	2.	DI Trust Fund

	3.	OASI and DI Trust Funds, Combined

	B.	SOCIAL SECURITY AMENDMENTS SINCE THE 2014 REPORT

	IV.	ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES

	A.	SHORT-RANGE ESTIMATES

	1.	Operations of the OASI Trust Fund

	2.	Operations of the DI Trust Fund

	3.	Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds

	4.	Factors Underlying Changes in 10-Year Trust Fund Ratio Estimates From the 2014 Report

	B.	LONG-RANGE ESTIMATES

	1.	Annual Income Rates,Cost Rates, and Balances

	2.	Comparison of Workers to Beneficiaries

	3.	Trust Fund Ratios and Test of Long-Range Close Actuarial Balance

	4.	Summarized Income Rates, Summarized Cost Rates, and Actuarial Balances

	5.	Additional Measures of OASDI Unfunded Obligations

	6.	Reasons for Change in Actuarial Balance From Last Report

	V.	ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS UNDERLYING ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES

	A.	DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS

	1.	Fertility Assumptions

	2.	Mortality Assumptions

	3.	Immigration Assumptions

	4.	Total Population Estimates

	5.	Life Expectancy Estimates

	B.	ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS

	1.	Productivity Assumptions

	2.	Price Inflation Assumptions

	3.	Average Earnings Assumptions

	4.	Assumed Real-Wage Differential

	5.	Labor Force and Unemployment Projections

	6.	Gross Domestic Product Projections

	7.	Interest Rates

	C.	PROGRAM-SPECIFIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS

	1.	Automatically Adjusted Program Parameters

	2.	Covered Employment

	3.	Insured Population

	4.	Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Beneficiaries

	5.	Disability Insurance Beneficiaries

	6.	Covered and Taxable Earnings, Taxable Payroll, and Payroll Tax Contributions

	7.	Income From Taxation of Benefits

	8.	Average Benefits

	9.	Scheduled Benefits

	10.	Illustrative Scheduled Benefit Amounts

	11.	Administrative Expenses

	12.	Railroad RetirementFinancial Interchange

	13.	Military Service Transfers

	VI.	APPENDICES

	A.	HISTORY OF OASI AND DI TRUST FUND OPERATIONS

	B.	HISTORY OF ACTUARIAL STATUS ESTIMATES

	C.	FISCAL YEAR HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED TRUST FUND OPERATIONS THROUGH 2024

	D.	LONG-RANGE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

	1.	Total Fertility Rate

	2.	Death Rates

	3.	Immigration

	4.	Real-Wage Differential

	5.	Consumer Price Index

	6.	Real Interest Rate

	7.	Disability Incidence Rates

	8.	Disability Termination

	E.	STOCHASTIC PROJECTIONS AND UNCERTAINTY

	1.	Background

	2.	Stochastic Methodology

	3.	Stochastic Results

	4.	Comparison of Results: Stochastic to Low-Cost, Intermediate, and High-Cost Alternatives

	F.	INFINITE HORIZON PROJECTIONS

	G.	ESTIMATES FOR OASDI AND HI, SEPARATE AND COMBINED

	1.	Estimates as a Percentage of Taxable Payroll

	2.	Estimates as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product

	3.	Estimates in Dollars

	H.	ANALYSIS OF BENEFIT DISBURSEMENTS FROM THE OASI TRUST FUND WITH RESPECT TO DISABLED BENEFICIARIES

	I.	GLOSSARY

LIST OF TABLES		

LIST OF FIGURES		

INDEX		

STATEMENT OF ACTUARIAL OPINION				

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