Life Expectancy Isn’t Always F

Enrolled Actuaries Meeting General Sess

Steve Goss

Office of the Chief Actuary

Social Security Administration

April 11, 2018
Life Expectancy, Gains Have Varied by G

But life expectancy is a potentially misleading statis

05

1015202530

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 

Period Life Expectancy at 65

2017 Trustees Report Intermediate

Male Female

Males falling behind

Males 

catching 

up
Survival Curves Tell a More Complete S

We are living longer, but there are limits, and progress 

0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

Survival Curve U.S. Female: Period Data

0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

Survival Curve U.S. Male: Period Data
Variation by Education and Earning

Distribution has been changing for ea

– So best to look at Percentiles

Death rates, and change in death rates

– Allow for comparison of actual experien

Education and earnings level correlate

– Both reflect relative advantages– Nature and nurture
Female Death Rates by Education Level 

John Bound et al.(2014)

Female Non-Hispanic-White Population 

Annualized Death Rates from Age 65 to 8

by Educational Attainment

0%1%2%3%4%5%

All < High

School

Low 25%

Education

High 75%

Education
Male Death Rates by Education Level 

John Bound et al. (2014)

Male Non-Hispanic-White Population 

Annualized Death Rates from Age 65 to 8

 by Educational Attainment

0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%

All < High

School

Low 25%

Education

High 75%

Education
Death Rates Vary by Career Earnings R

Difference has increased for females (2014)

Female 65-69 Retired-Worker 

Relative Death Rates by AIME Quart

0

0.20.40.60.8

1

1.21.41.6

123

19920
Death Rates Vary by Career Earnings R

Difference has increased for males too (2014

Male 65-69 Retired-Worker 

Relative Death Rates by AIME Quart

0

0.20.40.60.8

1

1.21.41.6

123

19902010
Relative Death Rates for Age 65-9 Social Securit

Differential has been expanding slowly for females (Bos

0.400.600.801.001.201.401.601.80

2000 2005 2010 2015

Relative Mortality Ratio

Year

Females
Relative Death Rates for Age 65-9 Social Securit

Expansion may be reversing for males?? (Bosley 

0.400.600.801.001.201.401.601.80

2000 2005 2010 2015

Relative Mortality Ratio

Year

Males
Mortality Decline Varies Over 

Conditions: Antibiotics/economy 1936-54; Medicare/Medi

Female Historical and Projected (2014 Trustees Report) 

Annual Percent Reduction in U.S. Mortality Rates

012345

Under Age 15 Ages 15 - 49 Ages 50 - 64 Ages 65 - 84 Ages 85 and

older

Total

Male Historical and Projected (2014 Trustees Report) 

Annual Percent Reduction in U.S. Mortality Rates

-1

012345

Under Age 15 Ages 15 - 49 Ages 50 - 64 Ages 65 - 84 Ages 85 and

older

Total
Mortality Decline by Cause of D

Rate of change from 1979 to 2013

-4-3-2-1

01234

Under 15 15-49 50-64 65-84 85+

CardiovascularCancerViolenceRespiratoryOther

FEMALE

-3-2-1

01234

Under 15 15-49 50-64 

MALE
Mortality Experience: Ages 65 and 

Reductions since 2009 continue to fall short of expec
Factors Affecting Future Chan

Smoking - still some effect for fema

started and stopped later than men

Obesity - major factor yet to be fully 

explored

Health spending and access - will th

even, or differ greatly by earnings le
Trends in Obesity: US 1971-20

Sam Preston 2010—must consider cumulative eff

Increasing duration of obesity for aged in futu
Health Spending Cannot Continue 

at Historical Rates

Note Trustees’ deceleration

-1%

0%1%2%3%4%5%

 1970-1980 1980-2010 2010-2040 2040-2070 207

Annual Percent Change in Medicare Cost per Beneficia

Relative to GDP per Worker: 2015 TR
For More Information...

http://www.ssa.gov/oact/

 Documentation of Trustees Report data & assu

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2017/2017_LongRange_Demographic_Assumptions.pdf

 Historical and projected mortality rates

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/HistEst/DeathHome.html

 Actuarial Studies and Notes

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/NOTES/actstud.html