Social Security

Memorandum

Date: December 19, 2001 

To: Representative Jim DeMint

From: Steve Goss, Chief Actuary

Subject: Estimated Financial Effects of the “Social Security 

Ownership and Guarantee Act of 2001” --INFORMATION 

This memorandum presents estimates for the plan sponsored by you and 

Representative Armey. Our understanding of the intent of this plan comes as a 

result of working with Matt Hoskins of your staff. 

This plan would establish voluntary, progressive individual accounts for workers 

who are under age 55 on January 1, 2003 and provide for an offset against their 

Social Security retirement and aged survivor benefits. Individual account (IA) 

assets would be invested by individual workers through the Personal Savings 

Board (PSB) with a specified allocation 60 percent in broad indexed equity funds 

and 40 percent in bonds issued by the Federal government. At least partial 

annuitization of the IA accumulation would be required at retirement. 

The benefit offset would be based on the amount of the full annuity that would be 

available through the PSB at retirement. The offset would initially be at a level of 

90 percent of the available full annuity, providing an incentive for early 

participation. The offset rate would rise gradually to 100 percent over roughly 40 

years as the program matures. As the program matures and workers are able to 

make IA contributions throughout their careers, the likelihood that the full IA 

annuity would exceed the scheduled OASI benefit would increase, thus 

maintaining an incentive to participate. The ability of the Social Security trust 

funds to meet benefit obligations would be maintained through a combination of 

transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury and special Social Security 

Transition (SST) Bonds issued to individual accounts. 

Under the plan specifications and assumptions described below the Social 

Security program would be expected to meet its benefit obligations throughout 

the long-range period 2001 through 2075. All estimates are based on the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2001 Trustees Report plus additional 

assumptions described below. 
2

Plan Specification 

Individual Accounts

Starting in 2003, workers who have not yet reached their 55th birthday as of 

January 1, 2003 and have earnings in OASDI (Social Security) covered 

employment will have a portion of their payroll tax contribution (12.4 percent of 

taxable earnings in total) redirected from the OASDI Trust Funds to an individual 

account. The percentage of taxable earnings to be redirected will vary based on 

a linear, progressive scale, with 8 percentage points redirected for a worker with 

$1 of earnings, and 3 percentage points redirected for a worker with maximum 

taxable earnings ($80,400 for 2001). See Table A attached. The progressive 

scale for IA contributions redirected from the OASDI Trust Funds is estimated to 

amount to about 5.1 percentage points of the 12.4 percent payroll tax rate on 

average. The total amount redirected from the OASDI contribution rate indicated 

in Table 1a is less than 5.1 percent of payroll for years through 2026, because 

workers age 55 and older at the beginning of 2003 have no IA contributions. 

While the plan would offer the IA as an option, the nature of the plan will provide 

a high likelihood that available retirement benefits will be higher than if the option 

is not selected. In addition, the plan would guarantee that total potential 

retirement benefits for each worker who selects the option and selects full 

annuitization would be at least as large as benefits scheduled under current law 

for Social Security. Thus, participation is assumed to be universal for estimates 

presented in this memorandum. 

IA contributions directed to the IA of a worker based on a year’s earnings are not 

determinable until earnings are reported to and tabulated by the Social Security 

Administration. Because this reporting is made by employers on an annual basis 

after the end of the calendar year, amounts for individual workers are not 

determinable for somewhat over a year, on average, after the date on which 

earnings are paid. Under the proposal, IA contributions would be credited to the 

individual accounts as soon as current reporting permits, with amounts increased 

by the equivalent of a money-market yield from June 30 of the year of earnings to 

the point of crediting to the workers account. The real money-market yield is 

assumed to average 2 percent, or about 1 percentage point below the yield on 

special bonds issued to the Trust Funds. 

Under the plan, individual account (IA) assets, once credited, would be 

automatically invested by workers through the Personal Savings Board (PSB). 

IA balances would be maintained with 60 percent in one or more specified broad 

index funds consisting of private equities for corporations based in the United 

States (such as the Wilshire 5000) and 40 percent in long-term bonds issued by 

the Federal government. Initially the bond portion of assets would be invested in 

special Social Security Transition (SST) Bonds. Due to the nature of the 

accounts, an ultimate administrative cost of 0.1 percent of assets is assumed to 

be reasonable.
3

IA Disbursements and Annuitization 

At retirement, the worker would have two annuitization options for IA balances. 

The first option would provide for full annuitization of all IA assets in a CPIindexed life annuity administered by the PSB. The annuity would be computed at 

retirement based on an assumption of investment of 60 percent in a broad equity 

index and 40 percent in long-term Federal bonds, with an assumed 

administrative expense of 0.3 percent of assets each year. Assets held by the 

PSB would, in fact, be invested 60 percent in equities and 40 percent in Federal 

bonds. The annuity would be computed using the assumed long-term future 

returns on equities and long-term Federal bonds as determined by the PSB at 

the time of annuitization. This PSB would assume all risk associated with 

guaranteeing this yield on life annuities, regardless of what actual investment 

returns turn out to be. The PSB would be backed by the Treasury of the United 

States government. Thus, the General Fund of the Treasury would provide the 

“insurance” that the full amount of the annuity will be paid for life regardless of 

actual investment returns. 

Under the second option available at retirement, 40 percent of accumulated IA 

assets would be required to be used to purchase special CPI-indexed life 

annuities administered by the PSB that would have a yield based on having all 

assets invested in long-term Federal bonds. If this annuity plus the Social 

Security benefit, reduced by the offset under this provision, provide a total 

monthly income that is less than the poverty level, then additional assets in the IA 

will be required to be annuitized in order to bring the total monthly payment up to 

the poverty level. If less than the total amount of IA assets are annuitized, the 

balance of IA assets may be disbursed or held as the retired worker wishes. All 

disbursements from IAs after retirement are considered to be Social Security 

benefits for the purpose of Federal income taxation, with revenue directed to the 

OASI, DI and HI trust funds as under current law.

Upon entitlement to retirement or aged survivor benefits under the current rules 

of the OASDI program, a monthly CPI-indexed annuity amount based on either 

full annuitization or at least 40 percent of assets (at the option of the retiree) 

would be computed by the Personal savings Board. The annuity would reflect all 

potential benefits that might be payable under the OASDI program (i.e., retired 

worker, spouse, child, widow(er), and surviving spouse benefits). Annuity 

calculations would be made at benefit entitlement based on the then-current 

expected long-range future yield on invested assets and the then-current 

expected future death rates for the potential beneficiaries. 

For individuals who die before receiving retirement (retired worker or aged 

spouse) benefits, the IA assets will be transferred to the account of the surviving 

spouse, if any, but will be allocated as needed to provide annuities for any 

surviving children of the deceased. If there are no survivors, and the worker dies 

before retiring, then the account balance goes to the worker’s estate, tax free. 
4

Social Security Benefit Offset

OASI retirement and aged survivor benefits will be reduced (offset) based on the 

amount of the annuity that was available under the full-annuitization option 

whether this option was selected or not. Benefits payable to disabled workers, 

to their dependents, and to survivors other than surviving spouse beneficiaries at 

age 60 or older are not subject to offset. 

 For workers 24 and under in 2003, OASI benefits will be reduced (offset) $1 for 

each $1 of total potential annuity payment (assuming full annuitization had been 

selected). For workers age 54 on January 1, 2003, OASDI benefits will be 

reduced by $0.90 for each $1 of IA potential annuity. For workers at ages 25, 26, 

... , 53 in 2003, a linear scale of reduction will be applied, equal to $0.9967, 

$0.9933, ..., $0.9033 for each $1 of potential IA annuity, respectively.

Social Security Transition Bonds

The Social Security Transition (SST) Bonds would be issued by the OASDI Trust 

Funds, or on behalf of the Trust Funds (by the Department of the Treasury). 

Money invested in SST Bonds would be deposited in the OASDI Trust Funds. 

SST Bonds would be assigned the same interest rate that is applicable to special 

obligations of the Treasury newly issued to the OASDI Trust Funds, i.e., the 

average market yield on all marketable U.S. Treasury securities with a remaining 

duration to maturity over 4 years. 

The proportion of the non-equity assets in IAs and special annuity accounts 

would be gradually shifted from SST Bonds to marketable long-term U.S. 

Treasury securities, as quickly as possible (after transfers from the General Fund 

of the Treasury to the trust funds are no longer expected to be needed) while 

maintaining a non-negative cash flow from the Trust Funds to the General Fund 

of the Treasury (see Table 1c). A percentage would be determined annually for 

the amount of total IA and annuity assets that would be held in SSA Bonds. 

When this percentage is lower than 40 percent, the difference would be invested 

in marketable Treasury securities. For those selecting the full-annuitization 

option, assets would be invested as are assets for individual accounts. For those 

selecting the optional partial annuitization, all assets would be initially held in 

SST Bonds. As the percentage of IA assets and full-annuity assets required to 

be held in SST Bonds is reduced below 40 percent, the percentage of assets for 

the partial annuity that would be held in SST Bonds would be reduced below 100 

percent, on a proportionate basis (i.e., by 2.5 percentage points below 100 

percent for each 1-percentage-point reduction below 40 percent). 

If tax revenue for the OASDI program is expected to be insufficient to pay 

program benefits for any year after the percentage of IA assets held in SST 

Bonds has been reduced below 40 percent, then this percentage will be 
5

increased for the following year in order to provide sufficient revenue for full 

payment of benefits, but to no higher than 40 percent of IA assets.

Personal Savings Board

The IA assets and special annuity assets (at least 40 percent of accumulated IA 

assets being required to have been annuitized) of all workers will be managed 

with a single entity, the Personal Savings Board (PSB), maintaining records and 

issuing periodic statements to account holders. The IA management would be 

based on the design of the government employee Thrift Savings Plan (TSP), with 

limited reporting requirements. Assets would be invested in bulk with large 

financial institutions. Through this approach it is assumed that IA administrative 

costs can be expected to be modest, ultimately around 0.1 percent of IA assets 

for each account holder, as for the TSP. This might require some Federal 

subsidy in early years for the IA, when account balances are low and start-up 

costs are incurred.

General Fund Transfers to the Trust Funds

The OASDI Trust Funds will receive transfers from the General Fund of the 

Treasury as needed in any future year sufficient to maintain Trust Fund cash 

holdings at a minimum level equal to about one year’s estimated net OASDI cost 

(net of benefit reductions under the plan). Trust Fund cash holdings include 

revenue “invested” in the Trust Funds by IAs in the form of SST Bonds. The 

amount of General Fund transfer for each calendar year would be determined by 

the end of the preceding year by the Social Security Administration based on the 

intermediate estimates included in the Trustees most recent Annual Report. 

General Fund transfers will be required only after the portion of IA assets held in 

SST Bonds has been set at 40 percent. 

Assumptions

The nature of the guarantee that participants in the voluntary option for individual 

accounts would receive under this proposal would assure that their total benefits 

will be no lower than if they do not exercise the option, but may well be higher. 

As a result, universal participation for eligible workers has been assumed for 

estimates presented in this memorandum.

As indicated above, estimates provided in this memorandum are based on the 

intermediate assumptions of the 2001 Trustees Report. In addition, the longterm ultimate average annual real yield assumed for equities is 6.5 percent. This 

is slightly lower than the expected real equity yield used for estimates produced 

by the Office of the Chief Actuary over the last several years. 

A consensus is forming among economists that equity pricing as indicated by 

price-to-earnings ratios may average somewhat higher in the long-term future 
6

than in the long-term past. This is consistent with broader access to equity 

markets and the belief that equities may be viewed as somewhat less “risky” in 

the future than in the past. Equity pricing will vary in the future as in the past. 

Price-to-earnings ratios were very high in the recent past, and are now lower. 

The average ultimate real equity yield assumed for estimates in this 

memorandum is consistent with an average ultimate level of equity pricing 

somewhat above the average level of the past. The extent of this ultimate 

change is unknown, but it is consistent with assuming a real equity yield 

somewhat below the long-range past average of about 7 percent. 

The assumption for an ultimate real equity yield of 7 percent that was used until 

this year was developed in 1995 with the 1994-6 Advisory Council. At the time, 

the Trustees assumption for the ultimate average real yield on long-term 

Treasury bonds was 2.3 percent at the time. Real yields on corporate bonds are 

believed to bear a close relationship to Treasury bond yields of similar duration. 

The 2001 Trustees Report includes the assumption that the ultimate real yield on 

long-term Treasury bonds will average 3 percent, or 0.7 percentage point higher 

than in 1995. This increase in the assumed bond yield is consistent with a 

reduction in the perceived risk associated with equity investments. 

Financial Effects of the Plan

Table 1a indicates that under intermediate assumptions for the future, GeneralFund transfers specified under the plan would be needed to keep the trust fund 

ratio from falling below 100 percent of annual expenditures starting 2019 and 

continuing through 2047. While the “cash position” of the Trust Funds would be 

positive throughout the long-range period, meaning that benefits would be 

payable in all years, the “net assets” of the Trust Funds would be negative after 

2013 because of SST Bonds issued to the IAs are effectively loans to the Trust 

Funds. As a result, the OASDI actuarial balance is projected to be –1.16 

percent of taxable payroll. However, the proportion of IA and annuity assets that 

would be held in SST bonds would be expected to start declining around 2051, 

declining from 40 percent in the initial years of the plan and reaching about 35 

percent by 2076. As this proportion would be expected to continue declining 

under the intermediate assumptions, the plan would be moving toward paying off 

the debt financing provided through SST bonds. 

Tables 1b1 provides an analysis of the cash position of Trust Fund reserves, and 

of net OASDI Trust Fund assets. For purpose of comparison, the net OASDI 

Trust Fund assets are also shown for a theoretical Social Security program 

where borrowing authority is assumed for the Trust Funds. (The theoretical 

Social Security program with borrowing authority is presented both with and 

without the General Fund transfers expected under this plan, as shown in table 

1a.) As indicated in Table 1a, the percentage of IA and annuity assets held in 

SST Bonds would be expected to begin declining below 40 percent in 2051.
7

Table 1b2 Provides estimates of the effect on federal unified budget cash flows 

and balances under this plan and these assumptions. The effect on unified 

budget cash flow would be expected to be negative initially, but positive starting 

2039. It is important to note that these estimates are based on the intermediate 

assumptions of the 2001 Trustees report and thus are not consistent with 

estimates made by the OMB or the CBO based of their assumptions. 

Table 1c provides estimates of the net cash flow from the OASDI Trust Funds to 

the General Fund of the Treasury. Revenue transferred from the Treasury to the 

Trust Funds for the redemption of the special-issue Treasury obligations held by 

the Trust Funds is included here as a negative cash flow to the General Fund. 

Values in Table 1c are shown as a percent of taxable payroll, in current dollars, 

in present value dollars as of 1/1/2001, and in constant 2001 dollars (discounted 

to 2001 with the projected growth in the CPI). For comparison purposes, net 

cash flow is also shown for a theoretical Social Security program where transfers 

from the General Fund of the Treasury to the OASDI Trust Funds are assumed 

to occur as needed to assure full payment of scheduled benefits in 2038 and 

later.

Table 1d provides estimates of the percentage of potential aggregate retirement 

benefits (OASI benefits plus IA annuities assuming all participate in the IA and all 

select full annuitization) that would be provided by the IA annuities. Under the 

assumptions stated above, this percentage would be expected to reach 80 

percent by 2073.

Table 1e provides a comparison of total expected benefits from: (1) OASDI 

under current-law scheduled benefit formulas, (2) OASDI with benefits limited to 

the amount that is expected to be payable under current law after the trust funds 

are exhausted in 2038, (3) OASDI benefits under the DeMint proposal, reflecting 

benefit offsets assuming all participate in the IA, and (4) total OASDI and IA 

potential benefits under the DeMint proposal assuming all participate and select 

full annuitization. Amounts for the latter three are also shown as a percentage of 

scheduled OASDI benefits under current law. 

Sensitivity Analysis

Tables 2, 3, and 4 provide analyses of the implications of realizing actual real 

yields on accounts that are one percent higher than expected (Table 2), one 

percent lower than expected (Table 3), and the same level as assumed for longterm Treasury bonds (Table 4). Table 4 illustrates the case where either the 

average real yield on equities is no higher than on bonds, or the illustration of a 

risk-adjusted return on equities. In each case, the “expected” yield on annuitized 

assets is assumed to match the actual yield, on average. It should be noted that 

while average real yields for equities below 3 percent occur for periods of a 

decade or so, the likelihood of having such a low average yield for a period of 

several decades seems extremely low. The sensitivity analysis with a 1-percent 
8

lower average yield for the total portfolio would be consistent with a bond yield as 

expected plus an equity yield that is 1 2/3 percent lower than expected, or about 

4.8 percent real. A rate this low should be expected to be very unlikely over a 

longer range period, like 50 to 75 years, based on historical experience. Thus, 

the likelihood that the financing of the OASDI program over the next 75 years 

would differ by as much as indicated in these sensitivity analyses is low. 

Similarly, long-term average real equity yields well above 6.5 percent are also 

possible, but unlikely. Universal participation in the IA and full annuitization by 

all are assumed for these sensitivity analyses. 

Table 2a indicates the possibility of substantially smaller General Fund transfers 

for fewer years (2020 through 2038) under the plan if IA yields are above 

expectations. Tables 3a and 4a indicate substantially higher transfers would be 

needed from the General Fund of the Treasury, starting 2018 and 2017, 

respectively, and lasting indefinitely. The percentage of IA and annuity assets 

held in SST Bonds would be expected to drop below 21 percent by 2076 with the 

higher yields in Table 2, but not be expected to be reduced below 40 percent for 

the lower yields in Tables 3 and 4. 

It must be noted that the uncertainties associated with equity investments, bond 

yields, and mortality improvement, as well as with a number of additional 

variables means that actual experience could vary from the illustrations provided 

in Tables 1, 2, 3, and 4. In any case, the DeMint plan would provide for 

adequate financing for the OASDI program through the provisions described 

above.

Expected IA Annuity Payments Relative to OASDI Benefit Levels

Methodology

For the purpose of this analysis, individuals are assumed to have taken the fullannuitization option. Values in the “Monthly Annuity” Tables 3 and 4 provide the 

expected level of a CPI-indexed, monthly life annuity from an individual account 

accumulation, expressed as a percentage of the scheduled monthly Social 

Security benefit under present law for several hypothetical cases. These 

estimates are indicated as preliminary because they may tend to overstate the 

level of monthly payment that can be provided from individual account asset 

accumulations somewhat. (See discussion of mortality below). 

For these hypothetical cases, earnings and IA contributions are assumed to 

begin at age 21 (22 for steady maximum workers), or in the year 2003 if later. 

Contributions are assumed to be at the formula rate based on each worker’s 

earnings that are taxable under the OASDI program. IA contributions apply only 

for individuals 54 or younger at the beginning of 2003, so those reaching age 65 

in 2013 and later are all assumed to participate. Individuals reaching age 65 in 
9

2012 would not participate, but values for them are included in the tables in order 

to illustrate the limit of IA annuities at the oldest ages. All annuities for married 

couples are assumed to be joint, with the survivor receiving two thirds of the 

monthly payment that is provided while both spouses are alive.

Four illustrative earnings levels are included. The “scaled” low, medium, and 

high earners have earnings patterns that reflect the relative probability of work 

and relative level of earnings by age during the period 1988-97. The absolute 

level of earnings in each case was set so that the Social Security PIA would be 

equal to that for a “steady” earner with low, average, and high earnings, 

respectively, in each year prior to retirement. For the steady average earner, the 

earnings level is the SSA average wage index (AWI) level for each year. For the 

steady low earner, earnings at 45 percent of the AWI are assumed. For the 

steady high earner, earnings at 160 percent of the AWI are assumed. The 

steady maximum worker is assumed to have earnings equal to the SSA taxable 

maximum each year prior to retirement. While these cases are hypothetical, the 

PIA for the medium (or steady average) earner is close to the median PIA for 

retired worker beneficiaries. See Social Security Administration Actuarial Note 

Number 144 for a full description of these hypothetical cases.

These two tables provide projected ratios of potential monthly life annuity from 

the IA (assuming full annuitization) to the scheduled OASDI benefit under 

present law, for single and married workers, respectively. IA assets for 

individuals are assumed to be invested 60 percent in stock, and account 

balances are assumed to be used to purchase a life annuity at retirement 

(assumed at age 65). Four cases are illustrated in four columns of values. 

Values in the first column reflect the expected returns under the intermediate 

assumptions. These assume the expected ultimate average real yield on 

equities at 6.5 percent with a net real yield on IA assets of 5.0 percent (with 60 

percent in equities, 40 percent in Federal bonds, and an administrative expense 

of 0.1 percent). Life annuities are assumed to reflect a real yield (valuation 

interest rate) of 4.8 percent, based on investment 40 percent in equities and an 

administrative expense of 0.3 percent of assets.

The second column in these illustrations, is a case where total annual real 

returns on IA assets and annuities are assumed to be 1 percentage point higher 

than under the intermediate assumptions. This is consistent with the sensitivity 

analysis shown in Table 2a. To achieve this higher yield within the model, a 

higher percentage of the portfolio was indicated as being in equities (even though 

this is not permitted in the plan), but the case is intended to illustrate the effect of 

a higher yield for any reason.

The third and fourth columns in these illustrations illustrate the implications of 

lower yields, consistent with the assumptions in Tables 3a and 4a, respectively.
10

Table A3 provides estimated accumulated IA assets at age 65, just prior to 

annuitization for the cases described above. Estimates are provided in both 

current dollars and constant 2001 dollars.

Mortality Assumption

Mortality for the individual account annuities calculated here is assumed to be the 

average for the total U.S. population, for all income levels. In fact, if individual 

account annuities were to be provided at retirement for individual account 

accumulations, the expected mortality experience of annuitants, weighted by 

amount of assets to be annuitized, would be better (lower death rates) than for 

the general population. Individuals with lower accumulated assets due to lower 

lifetime earnings, or disability prior to retirement, tend to have higher mortality, all 

else being equal. Thus, the use of general-population mortality in these 

illustrations tends to understate the weighted life expectancy of annuitants, and 

overstate the size of the monthly annuity from individual account accumulations. 

The tendency to overstate the size of payments from annuities is much greater if 

these illustrations are used in the analysis of a voluntary plan where higherincome and healthier individuals would be expected to be more likely to 

participate in annuitization. 

Stephen C. Goss
Table A. Individual Account Contributions for Workers in 2001

DeMint Contrib Rt: 8 % for $1, 3 % for Max

Level of PSA

Annual Contribution PSA

OASDI as a Contribution

Taxable Percentage in Dollar

Earnings of Earnings Amount

$1,000 7.94% $79.38

5,000 7.69% 384.45

10,000 7.38% 737.81

20,000 6.76% 1,351.24

30,000 6.13% 1,840.30

40,000 5.51% 2,204.98

50,000 4.89% 2,445.27

60,000 4.27% 2,561.19

70,000 3.65% 2,552.74

80,400 (taxable maximum) 3.00% 2,412.00

15,156 (Low = 45% of AWI 7.06% 1,069.64

33,680 (Average = AWI) 5.91% 1,988.98

38,100 (1/2 taxable maximum) 5.63% 2,145.26

53,889 (High = 160% of AWI 4.65% 2,505.13

64,320 (Peak $ Contrib) 4.00% 2,572.80

OCACT/SSA December 16, 2001
Table 1 a DeMint: 8-3%IA<55on1/1/03, 90/100%BenOfst, IA Dist Taxed like Ben IA Cntrb 5.1 %, Ben Offset 100.0 % 

NO Clawback With Ult Real TF Int Rate of 3.0 <40,IAYld/%Stk Percent of Real Int Rt First 1.33 Year after earnings 2.0

at Death <65 With Ult Real IA Yld Rate for Age 40+ of 5.0 5.0 IA Assets Effectv Cash Flow Net Purchase Change in OASDI

If No Survivor With Offset Annuity Net Yld Rate of 4.8 60 held in OASDI to the GF of SST Bonds Contrib Rt from--

Stock Yld 6.5% Cost Income Annual TFR** SST Bonds Contrib (Tab c) by Individual IA Transfer

Year Rate* Rate Balance 1-1-yr 0n 12/31 Rate (bill cur$) Accounts*** Contrib from GF

2001 10.49 12.72 2.23 239 12.40

2002 10.42 12.72 2.30 264 12.40

2003 10.43 8.70 -1.74 289 40 8.37 -8 1.56 4.03

2004 10.48 8.39 -2.09 290 40 8.05 -18 1.72 4.35

2005 10.56 8.32 -2.24 288 40 7.97 -23 1.78 4.43

2006 10.64 8.25 -2.39 284 40 7.90 -29 1.85 4.50

2007 10.77 8.18 -2.59 279 40 7.82 -38 1.91 4.58

2008 10.93 8.15 -2.78 273 40 7.77 -48 1.97 4.63

2009 11.12 8.12 -3.00 264 40 7.73 -61 2.03 4.67

2010 11.30 8.09 -3.21 255 40 7.68 -74 2.07 4.72

2011 11.47 8.05 -3.42 244 40 7.63 -90 2.11 4.77

2012 11.69 8.02 -3.68 231 40 7.59 -109 2.15 4.81

2013 11.93 7.98 -3.95 217 40 7.54 -133 2.19 4.86

2014 12.19 7.95 -4.24 201 40 7.50 -159 2.23 4.90

2015 12.45 7.94 -4.51 184 40 7.47 -187 2.26 4.93

2016 12.72 7.94 -4.78 165 40 7.46 -217 2.28 4.94

2017 12.99 7.93 -5.06 145 40 7.44 -250 2.30 4.96

2018 13.26 7.93 -5.33 124 40 7.42 -285 2.32 4.98

2019 13.52 10.93 -2.59 102 40 10.40 -322 2.34 5.00 3.00

2020 13.76 11.43 -2.33 100 40 10.89 -361 2.35 5.01 3.50

2021 13.97 11.64 -2.33 100 40 11.07 -399 2.36 5.03 3.70

2022 14.15 11.65 -2.50 100 40 11.05 -436 2.37 5.05 3.70

2023 14.31 11.86 -2.45 100 40 11.24 -473 2.37 5.06 3.90

2024 14.44 11.88 -2.56 100 40 11.23 -509 2.36 5.07 3.90

2025 14.54 11.99 -2.55 100 40 11.32 -545 2.35 5.08 4.00

2026 14.62 12.11 -2.51 100 40 11.41 -579 2.34 5.09 4.10

2027 14.66 12.12 -2.53 100 40 11.40 -612 2.32 5.10 4.10

2028 14.66 12.05 -2.61 100 40 11.30 -641 2.30 5.10 4.00

2029 14.62 12.08 -2.54 100 40 11.30 -665 2.26 5.10 4.00

2030 14.54 11.90 -2.64 100 40 11.10 -685 2.23 5.10 3.80

2031 14.44 11.93 -2.51 100 40 11.10 -702 2.18 5.10 3.80

2032 14.30 11.75 -2.55 100 40 10.90 -715 2.13 5.10 3.60

2033 14.15 11.58 -2.57 100 40 10.70 -725 2.08 5.10 3.40

2034 13.95 11.50 -2.45 100 40 10.60 -725 2.03 5.10 3.30

2035 13.72 11.22 -2.49 100 40 10.30 -718 1.98 5.10 3.00

2036 13.46 11.05 -2.41 100 40 10.10 -705 1.92 5.10 2.80

2037 13.18 10.77 -2.41 100 40 9.80 -684 1.85 5.10 2.50

2038 12.87 10.59 -2.28 100 40 9.60 -656 1.78 5.10 2.30

2039 12.55 10.32 -2.23 100 40 9.30 -621 1.70 5.10 2.00

2040 12.22 10.04 -2.18 100 40 9.00 -579 1.62 5.10 1.70

2041 11.87 9.76 -2.11 100 40 8.70 -532 1.53 5.10 1.40

2042 11.53 9.59 -1.94 100 40 8.50 -480 1.43 5.10 1.20

2043 11.20 9.31 -1.89 100 40 8.20 -430 1.33 5.10 0.90

2044 10.90 9.24 -1.66 100 40 8.10 -379 1.22 5.10 0.80

2045 10.59 8.97 -1.62 100 40 7.80 -325 1.11 5.10 0.50

2046 10.28 8.70 -1.58 100 40 7.50 -267 0.99 5.10 0.20

2047 9.94 8.63 -1.31 100 40 7.40 -198 0.85 5.10 0.10

2048 9.61 8.56 -1.05 100 40 7.30 -129 0.70 5.10

2049 9.32 8.59 -0.72 101 40 7.30 -63 0.56 5.10

2050 9.04 8.63 -0.41 105 40 7.30 1 0.41 5.10

2051 8.87 8.66 -0.21 109 39.97 7.30 9 0.23 5.10

2052 8.72 8.69 -0.04 113 39.91 7.30 6 0.05 5.10

2053 8.54 8.72 0.17 117 39.81 7.30 6 -0.16 5.10

2054 8.38 8.74 0.36 122 39.68 7.30 11 -0.34 5.10

2055 8.24 8.77 0.54 127 39.52 7.30 8 -0.52 5.10

2056 8.11 8.80 0.70 131 39.34 7.30 11 -0.67 5.10

2057 7.99 8.83 0.84 136 39.14 7.30 7 -0.82 5.10

2058 7.89 8.86 0.97 140 38.93 7.30 13 -0.94 5.10

2059 7.81 8.89 1.08 145 38.71 7.30 12 -1.06 5.10

2060 7.74 8.91 1.18 149 38.48 7.30 5 -1.17 5.10

2061 7.68 8.94 1.26 153 38.25 7.30 9 -1.25 5.10

2062 7.64 8.96 1.33 157 38.02 7.30 8 -1.32 5.10

2063 7.53 8.99 1.45 162 37.85 7.30 30 -1.41 5.10

2064 7.44 9.01 1.57 167 37.67 7.30 13 -1.55 5.10

2065 7.36 9.03 1.67 172 37.48 7.30 12 -1.65 5.10

2066 7.29 9.05 1.75 177 37.28 7.30 4 -1.75 5.10

2067 7.24 9.07 1.83 182 37.08 7.30 30 -1.79 5.10

2068 7.19 9.08 1.89 187 36.87 7.30 10 -1.88 5.10

2069 7.16 9.10 1.94 192 36.66 7.30 27 -1.91 5.10

2070 7.14 9.12 1.97 196 36.45 7.30 39 -1.94 5.10

2071 7.13 9.13 2.00 200 36.24 7.30 46 -1.96 5.10

2072 7.13 9.14 2.01 205 36.03 7.30 47 -1.97 5.10

2073 7.14 9.16 2.02 209 35.82 7.30 42 -1.98 5.10

2074 7.16 9.17 2.01 213 35.61 7.30 30 -1.98 5.10

2075 7.19 9.18 1.99 216 35.40 7.30 12 -1.98 5.10

2076 7.22 9.19 1.97 219 35.20 7.30 51 -1.93 5.10

 Summarized

CostRt IncRt ActBal Change in

2001 OASDI OASDI OASDI ActBal

-2075 11.41 10.25 -1.16 0.70

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2001 Trustees Report Office of the Actuary

 With Ult TF Real Int Rate of 3.00 **Including borrowing from Ind Accts in Form of SST Bonds Social Security Administration

* Net of Benefit Offset *** Excluding reinvestment of interest in SST Bonds. December 16, 2001
Table 1 b1 OASDI Trust Fund under Proposal (Cash Reserve and Assets Net of Borrowing from IAs), Individual Account Assets, and Theoretical OASDI Assets

Total OASDI Net OASDI Theoretical Social Security****

Trust Fund SST Bonds Invested in the Trust Funds TF Assets Individual with Borrowing Authority;

Cash Interest Purchase Accumulated at End of Yr: Account Net OASDI TF Assets End of Yr 

Calendar Reserve* Earned (Sale) ** Value at Net of Borrowing Assets *** Without GF With GF Transfer

Year at End of Yr in Year During Year at End of Yr Through SST Bonds at End of Yr Transfer (see Table 1a)

 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

Billions of Constant 2001 Dollars Billions of Constant 2001 Dollars

2001 1,198 0 1,198 1,198 1,198

2002 1,338 0.0 0.0 0 1,338 0 1,338 1,338

2003 1,372 2.3 68.4 70 1,303 174 1,482 1,482

2004 1,396 6.8 76.5 150 1,246 374 1,628 1,628

2005 1,415 11.9 80.7 236 1,179 590 1,776 1,776

2006 1,429 17.4 85.1 329 1,100 823 1,924 1,924

2007 1,438 23.3 89.5 430 1,008 1,075 2,074 2,074

2008 1,439 29.7 93.6 537 902 1,344 2,221 2,221

2009 1,432 36.5 97.9 652 779 1,632 2,366 2,366

2010 1,415 43.8 101.5 775 641 1,938 2,506 2,506

2011 1,389 51.7 105.5 905 485 2,263 2,642 2,642

2012 1,350 60.1 109.2 1,042 308 2,608 2,769 2,769

2013 1,297 69.0 112.9 1,188 109 2,973 2,886 2,886

2014 1,228 78.5 116.6 1,342 -114 3,359 2,991 2,991

2015 1,143 88.6 119.6 1,504 -361 3,765 3,082 3,082

2016 1,040 98.9 122.5 1,674 -634 4,191 3,158 3,158

2017 918 109.7 125.4 1,852 -933 4,637 3,216 3,216

2018 777 121.0 128.0 2,038 -1,260 5,104 3,255 3,255

2019 786 132.9 130.6 2,232 -1,446 5,592 3,274 3,445

2020 810 145.2 133.0 2,434 -1,624 6,101 3,273 3,649

2021 835 158.0 135.3 2,645 -1,810 6,631 3,251 3,854

2022 852 171.4 137.3 2,864 -2,012 7,183 3,209 4,047

2023 872 185.3 139.0 3,092 -2,219 7,756 3,146 4,242

2024 886 199.7 140.4 3,328 -2,442 8,351 3,063 4,427

2025 900 214.6 141.6 3,572 -2,672 8,967 2,959 4,608

2026 917 230.0 142.5 3,824 -2,908 9,605 2,834 4,785

2027 931 246.0 143.2 4,085 -3,154 10,265 2,688 4,955

2028 938 262.4 143.3 4,354 -3,415 10,947 2,522 5,111

2029 948 279.4 143.1 4,630 -3,682 11,649 2,338 5,260

2030 950 296.8 142.5 4,915 -3,965 12,372 2,134 5,391

2031 956 314.7 141.6 5,207 -4,250 13,116 1,912 5,517

2032 957 333.1 140.1 5,506 -4,549 13,881 1,672 5,626

2033 953 351.9 138.7 5,813 -4,860 14,666 1,415 5,717

2034 953 371.2 137.3 6,127 -5,175 15,471 1,143 5,800

2035 945 391.0 135.4 6,450 -5,504 16,295 856 5,861

2036 939 411.3 133.1 6,779 -5,840 17,138 556 5,908

2037 927 432.0 130.3 7,116 -6,188 17,998 242 5,933

2038 919 453.1 126.9 7,459 -6,540 18,876 -85 5,943

2039 908 474.6 123.1 7,809 -6,901 19,770 -424 5,931

2040 894 496.5 118.6 8,165 -7,271 20,679 -776 5,896

2041 877 518.8 113.4 8,526 -7,649 21,603 -1,141 5,837

2042 865 541.4 107.6 8,892 -8,027 22,538 -1,520 5,758

2043 848 564.3 101.0 9,262 -8,415 23,485 -1,914 5,652

2044 840 587.4 94.3 9,637 -8,798 24,442 -2,324 5,531

2045 825 610.8 86.8 10,016 -9,191 25,409 -2,751 5,380

2046 802 634.4 78.4 10,397 -9,595 26,383 -3,195 5,195

2047 789 658.1 67.8 10,779 -9,990 27,359 -3,659 4,992

2048 784 681.9 56.7 11,162 -10,377 28,335 -4,142 4,768

2049 794 705.6 45.7 11,544 -10,750 29,312 -4,646 4,531

2050 819 729.4 34.4 11,927 -11,108 30,289 -5,172 4,280

2051 845 753.1 19.5 12,306 -11,461 31,273 -5,723 4,014

2052 872 776.5 4.3 12,681 -11,809 32,264 -6,299 3,729

2053 900 799.5 -13.6 13,049 -12,149 33,263 -6,902 3,427

2054 929 822.2 -29.6 13,412 -12,483 34,269 -7,534 3,105

2055 959 844.6 -45.8 13,770 -12,811 35,283 -8,196 2,762

2056 990 866.7 -60.0 14,124 -13,134 36,305 -8,889 2,398

2057 1,021 888.5 -74.2 14,474 -13,453 37,336 -9,614 2,012

2058 1,054 910.2 -85.9 14,822 -13,768 38,377 -10,373 1,602

2059 1,088 931.8 -97.5 15,170 -14,082 39,428 -11,165 1,168

2060 1,122 953.4 -109.0 15,516 -14,394 40,490 -11,994 710

2061 1,158 974.9 -117.6 15,864 -14,706 41,565 -12,859 225

2062 1,194 996.6 -125.8 16,214 -15,020 42,653 -13,763 -285

2063 1,234 1,018.3 -136.5 16,564 -15,330 43,761 -14,705 -824

2064 1,273 1,039.9 -151.5 16,909 -15,635 44,886 -15,688 -1,390

2065 1,313 1,061.3 -163.4 17,252 -15,939 46,029 -16,713 -1,986

2066 1,354 1,082.5 -175.0 17,594 -16,240 47,193 -17,780 -2,612

2067 1,398 1,103.9 -181.6 17,939 -16,541 48,379 -18,893 -3,269

2068 1,442 1,125.3 -192.5 18,284 -16,842 49,590 -20,051 -3,959

2069 1,489 1,146.9 -198.1 18,633 -17,145 50,827 -21,257 -4,681

2070 1,538 1,168.8 -203.1 18,988 -17,450 52,093 -22,511 -5,439

2071 1,589 1,191.0 -207.6 19,349 -17,760 53,391 -23,817 -6,232

2072 1,642 1,213.6 -211.6 19,717 -18,074 54,723 -25,175 -7,062

2073 1,696 1,236.7 -215.1 20,092 -18,396 56,091 -26,587 -7,931

2074 1,751 1,260.3 -218.2 20,475 -18,725 57,499 -28,055 -8,840

2075 1,805 1,284.4 -220.7 20,868 -19,063 58,949 -29,581 -9,789

2076 1,864 1,309.3 -216.9 21,276 -19,412 60,443 -31,167 -10,782

* Including cumulative amount invested by IAs in the form of SST Bonds.

** Excluding reinvestment of interest on SST Bonds.

*** Including annuity assets, assuming all annuitize fully in the 60/40 option Office of the Actuary

**** Theoretical Social Security is the current Social Security program with the assumption Social Security Administration

 that the law is modified to permit forrowing from the General Fund of the Treasury. December 16, 2001
Table 1 b2 IA Contributions, OASDI Benefit Offset from IA, & Unified Budget Effect

 Amount Ave IA Cntrb 5.1 %, Benefit Offset 100.0 %, BenCut%

IA/Annuity Contrib to IA: Benefit Other Change in Change Change

Balance % from UB Offset Changes Annual UB in Debt in Ann

at End of % by GenFnd OASDI Ben in OASDI UnifBudg Held by UnifBudg

 Year Year 100 Due to IA CashFlow CashFlow Public 1/ Balance

 (EOY)

 (Billions of Constant 2001$)

2002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2003 174.0 176.3 0.0 0.0 -176.3 179.1 -181.9

2004 373.9 193.8 0.0 0.0 -193.8 381.4 -211.0

2005 590.1 200.7 0.0 0.0 -200.7 596.2 -230.6

2006 823.5 207.6 0.0 0.0 -207.6 824.1 -251.0

2007 1,074.9 214.4 0.0 0.0 -214.4 1,065.5 -272.1

2008 1,344.1 220.1 0.0 0.0 -220.1 1,319.6 -292.9

2009 1,632.1 225.8 0.1 0.0 -225.7 1,586.9 -314.5

2010 1,937.8 231.6 2.1 0.0 -229.5 1,865.7 -334.9

2011 2,263.0 238.1 4.4 0.0 -233.7 2,157.3 -356.9

2012 2,607.8 244.2 7.1 0.0 -237.1 2,461.3 -379.0

2013 2,972.9 250.2 10.3 0.0 -239.9 2,777.6 -401.4

2014 3,358.9 256.2 14.0 0.0 -242.2 3,106.1 -424.1

2015 3,765.1 261.0 18.3 0.0 -242.7 3,445.6 -445.9

2016 4,191.1 265.4 23.1 0.0 -242.3 3,794.9 -466.9

2017 4,637.4 270.1 28.6 0.0 -241.5 4,153.8 -488.0

2018 5,104.1 274.5 34.7 0.0 -239.8 4,521.8 -508.8

2019 5,591.8 279.1 41.5 0.0 -237.6 4,898.5 -529.8

2020 6,100.6 283.6 49.2 0.0 -234.4 5,283.4 -550.2

2021 6,630.9 288.3 57.6 0.0 -230.7 5,676.0 -570.6

2022 7,182.7 292.7 66.9 0.0 -225.8 6,075.5 -590.3

2023 7,755.9 296.9 76.8 0.0 -220.1 6,481.1 -609.5

2024 8,350.7 301.2 87.7 0.0 -213.5 6,892.2 -628.2

2025 8,967.1 305.5 99.6 0.0 -205.9 7,308.0 -646.3

2026 9,605.3 309.9 112.4 0.0 -197.4 7,727.6 -663.8

2027 10,265.3 314.3 126.4 0.0 -188.0 8,150.2 -680.4

2028 10,946.6 318.3 141.4 0.0 -177.0 8,574.3 -695.7

2029 11,648.9 322.4 157.5 0.0 -164.9 8,998.8 -709.9

2030 12,372.3 326.6 174.9 0.0 -151.6 9,422.7 -723.0

2031 13,116.4 330.8 193.5 0.0 -137.3 9,844.7 -734.9

2032 13,881.1 335.2 213.4 0.0 -121.8 10,263.7 -745.4

2033 14,666.0 339.7 232.9 0.0 -106.8 10,679.9 -756.3

2034 15,470.8 344.3 253.5 0.0 -90.7 11,092.4 -766.0

2035 16,294.8 348.9 275.3 0.0 -73.6 11,499.9 -774.3

2036 17,137.5 353.6 298.2 0.0 -55.4 11,901.2 -781.2

2037 17,998.2 358.4 322.3 0.0 -36.1 12,294.8 -786.5

2038 18,876.1 363.2 347.6 0.0 -15.6 12,679.5 -790.2

2039 19,770.2 368.1 374.2 0.0 6.1 13,053.7 -792.0

2040 20,679.4 373.0 402.0 0.0 29.0 13,415.9 -791.9

2041 21,602.6 377.9 431.1 0.0 53.2 13,764.4 -789.7

2042 22,538.2 382.8 461.6 0.0 78.8 14,097.3 -785.3

2043 23,484.8 387.7 491.7 0.0 104.0 14,414.7 -780.3

2044 24,442.4 392.7 521.4 0.0 128.8 14,716.4 -774.7

2045 25,409.2 397.6 552.2 0.0 154.6 15,001.0 -767.1

2046 26,383.2 402.6 584.2 0.0 181.6 15,266.7 -757.1

2047 27,359.0 407.6 620.1 0.0 212.5 15,509.0 -741.9

2048 28,335.2 412.5 656.0 0.0 243.5 15,727.2 -725.3

2049 29,312.3 417.6 690.5 0.0 273.0 15,922.0 -708.6

2050 30,289.2 422.6 724.7 0.0 302.1 16,093.0 -690.8

2051 31,273.2 427.7 751.8 0.0 324.2 16,246.8 -678.8

2052 32,264.5 432.8 778.2 0.0 345.4 16,383.7 -666.6

2053 33,263.0 437.9 808.4 0.0 370.5 16,499.2 -649.4

2054 34,269.2 443.2 838.1 0.0 394.9 16,593.4 -631.5

2055 35,283.1 448.5 867.1 0.0 418.6 16,666.3 -612.9

2056 36,305.4 453.8 895.5 0.0 441.7 16,718.0 -593.7

2057 37,336.5 459.1 923.0 0.0 463.9 16,748.8 -574.1

2058 38,377.1 464.6 949.8 0.0 485.2 16,758.8 -554.0

2059 39,428.1 470.1 975.6 0.0 505.5 16,748.6 -533.7

2060 40,490.3 475.7 1,000.5 0.0 524.8 16,718.5 -513.2

2061 41,565.0 481.4 1,024.3 0.0 542.9 16,669.0 -492.5

2062 42,653.4 487.1 1,047.1 0.0 559.9 16,600.8 -471.9

2063 43,761.3 492.9 1,075.9 0.0 582.9 16,507.2 -443.9

2064 44,886.1 498.8 1,104.0 0.0 605.2 16,388.2 -415.1

2065 46,029.3 504.7 1,131.2 0.0 626.5 16,244.0 -385.6

2066 47,193.0 510.7 1,157.6 0.0 646.9 16,074.8 -355.4

2067 48,379.1 516.8 1,183.2 0.0 666.4 15,880.8 -324.7

2068 49,589.7 522.9 1,207.8 0.0 684.9 15,662.1 -293.3

2069 50,826.9 529.1 1,231.6 0.0 702.6 15,418.9 -261.4

2070 52,093.3 535.3 1,254.5 0.0 719.2 15,151.5 -228.9

2071 53,391.0 541.6 1,276.6 0.0 735.0 14,860.1 -195.8

2072 54,722.9 547.9 1,297.8 0.0 749.9 14,544.9 -162.1

2073 56,091.3 554.3 1,318.3 0.0 764.0 14,205.9 -127.7

2074 57,499.0 560.8 1,338.0 0.0 777.3 13,843.2 -92.7

2075 58,948.7 567.3 1,357.1 0.0 789.8 13,457.0 -56.9

2076 60,443.3 573.9 1,375.5 0.0 801.6 13,047.1 -20.3

1/ Including SST Bonds

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2001 Trustees Report

 With Ult TF Real Int Rate of 3.0 TF, Ultimate Real Yield Rate of IA 5

Office of the Actuary Annuity Yield 4.8

Social Security Administration

 December 16, 2001
Table 1 c OASDI Cash Flow to General Fund of the Treasury---DeMint Proposal vs. Theoretical OASDI

In Billions of Dollars

DeMint Proposal Theoretical Social Security with PAYGO Transfers

Net Amount of Cash-Flow from the OASDI Net Amount of Cash-Flow from the OASDI 

Trust Funds to the General Fund of the Trust Funds to the General Fund of the

 Treasury During the Year 1/ Treasury During the Year 1/

% of Billions of Dollars --- % of Billions of Dollars ---

Pyrl Current $ PV Jan 1, 01 Const 2001$ Pyrl Current $ PV Jan 1, 01 Const 2001$

2002 2.3 102 92 99 2.2 98 89 95

2003 -0.2 -8 -7 -8 2.2 101 86 95

2004 -0.4 -18 -15 -17 2.1 101 81 93

2005 -0.5 -23 -18 -21 2.0 102 77 90

2006 -0.5 -29 -21 -25 1.9 102 72 87

2007 -0.7 -38 -26 -32 1.8 100 67 83

2008 -0.8 -48 -30 -39 1.7 98 62 79

2009 -1.0 -61 -36 -47 1.5 94 56 73

2010 -1.1 -74 -41 -56 1.4 89 49 67

2011 -1.3 -90 -47 -65 1.2 80 42 58

2012 -1.5 -109 -54 -77 1.0 69 34 49

2013 -1.8 -133 -61 -91 0.7 55 26 38

2014 -2.0 -159 -69 -105 0.5 37 16 25

2015 -2.3 -187 -76 -120 0.2 15 6 10

2016 -2.5 -217 -83 -134 -0.1 -10 -4 -6

2017 -2.8 -250 -90 -150 -0.4 -39 -14 -23

2018 -3.0 -285 -97 -166 -0.8 -72 -24 -42

2019 -3.2 -322 -103 -181 -1.1 -108 -34 -61

2020 -3.5 -361 -108 -197 -1.4 -148 -45 -81

2021 -3.7 -399 -112 -210 -1.8 -192 -54 -101

2022 -3.8 -436 -115 -223 -2.1 -237 -63 -121

2023 -4.0 -473 -118 -234 -2.4 -284 -71 -140

2024 -4.1 -509 -119 -244 -2.7 -333 -78 -159

2025 -4.2 -545 -120 -252 -3.0 -385 -85 -178

2026 -4.3 -579 -120 -260 -3.2 -439 -91 -197

2027 -4.3 -612 -119 -266 -3.5 -494 -96 -214

2028 -4.3 -641 -117 -269 -3.7 -551 -101 -232

2029 -4.3 -665 -114 -271 -3.9 -608 -104 -248

2030 -4.2 -685 -111 -270 -4.1 -666 -107 -262

2031 -4.1 -702 -106 -268 -4.2 -722 -110 -275

2032 -4.0 -715 -102 -264 -4.4 -780 -111 -288

2033 -3.9 -725 -97 -259 -4.5 -838 -112 -299

2034 -3.7 -725 -91 -251 -4.6 -896 -113 -310

2035 -3.5 -718 -85 -241 -4.7 -951 -113 -318

2036 -3.3 -705 -78 -228 -4.7 -1,004 -112 -325

2037 -3.1 -684 -71 -215 -4.7 -1,054 -110 -331

2038 -2.8 -656 -64 -199 -4.7 -1,104 -108 -335

2039 -2.5 -621 -57 -183 -4.7 -1,155 -107 -340

2040 -2.3 -579 -50 -165 -4.7 -1,205 -105 -343

2041 -2.0 -532 -43 -147 -4.7 -1,256 -102 -346

2042 -1.7 -480 -37 -128 -4.7 -1,309 -100 -349

2043 -1.5 -430 -31 -111 -4.6 -1,366 -98 -353

2044 -1.2 -379 -26 -95 -4.6 -1,426 -97 -357

2045 -1.0 -325 -21 -79 -4.6 -1,491 -95 -361

2046 -0.8 -267 -16 -62 -4.6 -1,560 -93 -366

2047 -0.6 -198 -11 -45 -4.6 -1,634 -92 -371

2048 -0.3 -129 -7 -28 -4.6 -1,713 -90 -376

2049 -0.2 -63 -3 -13 -4.7 -1,798 -89 -382

2050 0.0 1 0 0 -4.7 -1,889 -88 -389

2051 0.0 9 0 2 -4.7 -1,987 -87 -396

2052 0.0 6 0 1 -4.8 -2,094 -86 -404

2053 0.0 6 0 1 -4.8 -2,212 -86 -413

2054 0.0 11 0 2 -4.9 -2,341 -85 -423

2055 0.0 8 0 1 -4.9 -2,478 -85 -433

2056 0.0 11 0 2 -5.0 -2,624 -84 -444

2057 0.0 7 0 1 -5.1 -2,779 -84 -455

2058 0.0 13 0 2 -5.1 -2,942 -84 -467

2059 0.0 12 0 2 -5.2 -3,115 -83 -479

2060 0.0 5 0 1 -5.3 -3,296 -83 -490

2061 0.0 9 0 1 -5.3 -3,486 -82 -502

2062 0.0 8 0 1 -5.4 -3,687 -82 -514

2063 0.0 30 1 4 -5.4 -3,896 -81 -526

2064 0.0 13 0 2 -5.5 -4,116 -81 -537

2065 0.0 12 0 1 -5.6 -4,346 -80 -549

2066 0.0 4 0 1 -5.6 -4,587 -79 -561

2067 0.0 30 0 4 -5.7 -4,841 -79 -573

2068 0.0 10 0 1 -5.7 -5,107 -78 -586

2069 0.0 27 0 3 -5.8 -5,386 -77 -598

2070 0.0 39 1 4 -5.8 -5,680 -77 -610

2071 0.0 46 1 5 -5.9 -5,989 -76 -623

2072 0.0 47 1 5 -5.9 -6,315 -75 -636

2073 0.0 42 0 4 -6.0 -6,658 -75 -649

2074 0.0 30 0 3 -6.0 -7,018 -74 -662

2075 0.0 12 0 1 -6.1 -7,399 -73 -676

2076 0.0 51 0 4 -6.1 -7,803 -73 -690

Total 2001-75 -17,041 -3,045 -6,854 -132,955 -4,268 -21,143

1/ Equals net investment in special Treasury Bonds by the 

 Trust Funds less the Amount of General Fund transfers Office of the Actuary

 specified in the proposal (DeMint) or in the theoretical Social Security Administration

 plan (PAYGO Transfers). December 16, 2001
Table 1 d Percent of Potential Retirement Benefits from Potential IA Annuity (Full Annuitization)

Expected Expected

Net Benefits Total Total Percentage

from OASI Payments Retirement of Total

Year Trust Fund from IA Payments from IA

(Billions of Constant 2001 $)

2002 378.5 0.0 378.5 0.0

2003 384.8 0.0 384.8 0.0

2004 391.8 0.0 391.8 0.0

2005 399.6 0.0 399.6 0.0

2006 407.9 0.0 407.9 0.0

2007 417.4 0.0 417.4 0.0

2008 428.6 0.0 428.6 0.0

2009 442.4 0.1 442.5 0.0

2010 455.5 2.1 457.6 0.5

2011 470.6 4.5 475.1 1.0

2012 487.0 7.4 494.4 1.5

2013 504.6 10.7 515.3 2.1

2014 523.3 14.6 537.9 2.7

2015 542.7 19.0 561.7 3.4

2016 562.8 24.0 586.8 4.1

2017 583.4 29.7 613.0 4.8

2018 604.3 36.1 640.4 5.6

2019 625.4 43.2 668.6 6.5

2020 646.4 51.1 697.5 7.3

2021 664.9 59.9 724.8 8.3

2022 681.8 69.5 751.3 9.3

2023 697.7 80.1 777.9 10.3

2024 712.6 91.7 804.4 11.4

2025 726.2 104.4 830.6 12.6

2026 738.2 118.2 856.4 13.8

2027 749.6 133.1 882.7 15.1

2028 760.1 149.3 909.5 16.4

2029 768.4 166.8 935.2 17.8

2030 774.4 185.6 960.0 19.3

2031 778.6 205.8 984.5 20.9

2032 780.9 227.5 1,008.4 22.6

2033 781.9 250.6 1,032.6 24.3

2034 779.6 275.4 1,055.0 26.1

2035 774.4 301.8 1,076.1 28.0

2036 766.8 329.8 1,096.6 30.1

2037 757.4 359.7 1,117.0 32.2

2038 746.1 391.4 1,137.5 34.4

2039 732.8 425.0 1,157.7 36.7

2040 717.4 460.6 1,177.9 39.1

2041 700.4 498.3 1,198.7 41.6

2042 682.2 538.1 1,220.4 44.1

2043 664.8 580.3 1,245.1 46.6

2044 648.3 623.0 1,271.3 49.0

2045 631.3 668.2 1,299.4 51.4

2046 613.8 715.9 1,329.6 53.8

2047 593.1 769.7 1,362.8 56.5

2048 573.3 824.9 1,398.2 59.0

2049 555.4 879.9 1,435.2 61.3

2050 538.6 935.9 1,474.5 63.5

2051 530.0 984.3 1,514.3 65.0

2052 523.3 1,033.2 1,556.4 66.4

2053 513.6 1,082.3 1,595.9 67.8

2054 505.3 1,131.7 1,637.0 69.1

2055 498.1 1,181.2 1,679.3 70.3

2056 492.4 1,230.7 1,723.1 71.4

2057 488.1 1,280.2 1,768.3 72.4

2058 485.3 1,329.4 1,814.7 73.3

2059 483.7 1,378.4 1,862.1 74.0

2060 483.3 1,427.0 1,910.3 74.7

2061 484.0 1,475.1 1,959.1 75.3

2062 485.8 1,522.7 2,008.4 75.8

2063 481.6 1,569.5 2,051.1 76.5

2064 478.3 1,615.6 2,094.0 77.2

2065 476.0 1,660.9 2,136.9 77.7

2066 474.7 1,705.3 2,180.0 78.2

2067 474.6 1,748.8 2,223.4 78.7

2068 475.5 1,791.3 2,266.8 79.0

2069 477.4 1,832.8 2,310.2 79.3

2070 480.4 1,873.3 2,353.7 79.6

2071 484.4 1,912.8 2,397.3 79.8

2072 489.6 1,951.4 2,441.0 79.9

2073 495.9 1,989.2 2,485.0 80.0

2074 503.2 2,026.1 2,529.3 80.1

2075 511.6 2,062.2 2,573.8 80.1

2076 520.9 2,097.8 2,618.7 80.1

Office of the Actuary

Social Security Administration

 December 16, 2001
Table 1 e Comparison of Total Expected Plan Payments under Present Law and DeMint Proposal Expected Payments 

As % of Scheduled PL OASDI Benefits

Scheduled* PL OASDI Expected Benefits Payable PL OASDI Expected Benefits Payable

Total OASDI Benefits under DeMint Proposal*** Benefits under DeMint Proposal***

Calendar Benefits under Expected to from OASDI total including Expected to from OASDI total including

Year PresentLaw Be Payable** Trust Funds IA annuity Be Payable** Trust Funds IA annuity

Billions of Constant 2001 Dollars Percent

2001 433 433 433 433 100 100 100

2002 440 440 440 440 100 100 100

2003 450 450 450 450 100 100 100

2004 460 460 460 460 100 100 100

2005 472 472 472 472 100 100 100

2006 484 484 484 484 100 100 100

2007 498 498 498 498 100 100 100

2008 513 513 513 513 100 100 100

2009 531 531 531 531 100 100 100

2010 550 550 547 550 100 100 100

2011 570 570 566 571 100 99 100

2012 593 593 586 594 100 99 100

2013 618 618 607 618 100 98 100

2014 643 643 629 644 100 98 100

2015 670 670 652 671 100 97 100

2016 699 699 676 700 100 97 100

2017 728 728 699 729 100 96 100

2018 758 758 723 759 100 95 100

2019 789 789 747 790 100 95 100

2020 820 820 771 822 100 94 100

2021 850 850 792 852 100 93 100

2022 879 879 813 882 100 92 100

2023 909 909 832 912 100 92 100

2024 938 938 850 942 100 91 100

2025 966 966 867 971 100 90 100

2026 994 994 882 1,000 100 89 101

2027 1,022 1,022 895 1,029 100 88 101

2028 1,049 1,049 907 1,056 100 87 101

2029 1,074 1,074 916 1,083 100 85 101

2030 1,098 1,098 923 1,109 100 84 101

2031 1,122 1,122 929 1,135 100 83 101

2032 1,146 1,146 932 1,160 100 81 101

2033 1,168 1,168 935 1,185 100 80 102

2034 1,188 1,188 934 1,210 100 79 102

2035 1,206 1,206 931 1,233 100 77 102

2036 1,224 1,224 926 1,256 100 76 103

2037 1,241 1,241 919 1,278 100 74 103

2038 1,257 1,169 910 1,301 93 72 103

2039 1,273 927 899 1,324 73 71 104

2040 1,288 939 886 1,347 73 69 105

2041 1,304 952 873 1,371 73 67 105

2042 1,320 965 858 1,397 73 65 106

2043 1,337 977 845 1,425 73 63 107

2044 1,354 989 832 1,455 73 61 108

2045 1,371 1,004 819 1,487 73 60 108

2046 1,389 1,017 805 1,521 73 58 109

2047 1,408 1,028 788 1,558 73 56 111

2048 1,427 1,043 771 1,596 73 54 112

2049 1,447 1,055 757 1,636 73 52 113

2050 1,468 1,068 743 1,679 73 51 114

2051 1,489 1,081 738 1,722 73 50 116

2052 1,512 1,095 734 1,767 72 49 117

2053 1,536 1,108 728 1,810 72 47 118

2054 1,561 1,122 723 1,854 72 46 119

2055 1,586 1,135 719 1,900 72 45 120

2056 1,611 1,150 716 1,947 71 44 121

2057 1,637 1,164 714 1,994 71 44 122

2058 1,664 1,178 714 2,043 71 43 123

2059 1,690 1,192 715 2,093 71 42 124

2060 1,717 1,207 717 2,144 70 42 125

2061 1,744 1,221 720 2,195 70 41 126

2062 1,772 1,237 724 2,247 70 41 127

2063 1,799 1,252 723 2,293 70 40 127

2064 1,827 1,266 723 2,339 69 40 128

2065 1,855 1,282 724 2,385 69 39 129

2066 1,884 1,298 726 2,431 69 39 129

2067 1,912 1,314 729 2,478 69 38 130

2068 1,941 1,328 733 2,525 68 38 130

2069 1,970 1,346 739 2,572 68 37 131

2070 2,000 1,362 745 2,619 68 37 131

2071 2,030 1,378 753 2,666 68 37 131

2072 2,060 1,392 762 2,713 68 37 132

2073 2,090 1,411 772 2,761 68 37 132

2074 2,121 1,428 783 2,809 67 37 132

2075 2,153 1,442 796 2,858 67 37 133

2076 2,184 1,459 809 2,907 67 37 133

* Based on benefit formulas in the law, without regard to adequacy of financing.

** Assuming that benefits would be reduced as needed starting in 2038. Office of the Actuary

*** Amount from Trust funds is net of benefit offset under the proposal. Social Security Administration

 December 16, 2001
Table 2 a DeMint: Sensitivity--IA/Annuity Yields 1-Percent Above Expected IA Cntrb 5.1 %, Ben Offset 100.0 % 

NO Clawback With Ult Real TF Int Rate of 3.0 <40,IAYld/%Stk Percent of Real Int Rt First 1.33 Year after earnings 2.0

at Death <65 With Ult Real IA Yld Rate for Age 40+ of 6.0 6.0 IA Assets Effectv Cash Flow Net Purchase Change in OASDI

If No Survivor With Offset Annuity Net Yld Rate of 5.8 60 held in OASDI to the GF of SST Bonds Contrib Rt from--

Stock Yld 6.5% Cost Income Annual TFR** SST Bonds Contrib (Tab c) by Individual IA Transfer

Year Rate* Rate Balance 1-1-yr 0n 12/31 Rate (bill cur$) Accounts*** Contrib from GF

2001 10.49 12.72 2.23 239 12.40

2002 10.42 12.72 2.30 264 12.40

2003 10.43 8.70 -1.74 289 40 8.37 -9 1.55 4.03

2004 10.48 8.39 -2.09 290 40 8.05 -18 1.72 4.35

2005 10.56 8.32 -2.24 288 40 7.97 -22 1.80 4.43

2006 10.64 8.25 -2.39 284 40 7.90 -27 1.88 4.50

2007 10.77 8.18 -2.59 280 40 7.82 -35 1.97 4.58

2008 10.93 8.15 -2.78 274 40 7.77 -43 2.05 4.63

2009 11.12 8.12 -3.00 266 40 7.73 -55 2.13 4.67

2010 11.30 8.09 -3.21 257 40 7.68 -66 2.19 4.72

2011 11.47 8.05 -3.42 247 40 7.63 -79 2.26 4.77

2012 11.69 8.02 -3.67 236 40 7.59 -96 2.33 4.81

2013 11.92 7.98 -3.94 223 40 7.54 -117 2.40 4.86

2014 12.17 7.95 -4.23 209 40 7.50 -139 2.46 4.90

2015 12.43 7.94 -4.49 194 40 7.47 -163 2.52 4.93

2016 12.69 7.94 -4.75 177 40 7.46 -188 2.57 4.94

2017 12.95 7.94 -5.02 160 40 7.44 -216 2.63 4.96

2018 13.20 7.94 -5.27 142 40 7.42 -245 2.68 4.98

2019 13.45 7.93 -5.51 122 40 7.40 -276 2.73 5.00

2020 13.67 10.53 -3.14 102 40 9.99 -307 2.78 5.01 2.60

2021 13.86 10.94 -2.92 100 40 10.37 -336 2.83 5.03 3.00

2022 14.01 11.05 -2.96 100 40 10.45 -363 2.87 5.05 3.10

2023 14.15 11.07 -3.08 100 40 10.44 -390 2.90 5.06 3.10

2024 14.26 11.18 -3.08 100 40 10.53 -415 2.94 5.07 3.20

2025 14.34 11.20 -3.14 100 40 10.52 -437 2.97 5.08 3.20

2026 14.38 11.12 -3.26 100 40 10.41 -457 2.99 5.09 3.10

2027 14.39 11.14 -3.25 100 40 10.40 -474 3.01 5.10 3.10

2028 14.36 10.97 -3.39 100 40 10.20 -486 3.02 5.10 2.90

2029 14.28 10.89 -3.38 100 40 10.10 -491 3.02 5.10 2.80

2030 14.16 10.82 -3.33 100 40 10.00 -490 3.02 5.10 2.70

2031 14.00 10.55 -3.45 100 40 9.70 -484 3.01 5.10 2.40

2032 13.82 10.38 -3.44 100 40 9.50 -471 2.99 5.10 2.20

2033 13.62 10.21 -3.41 100 40 9.30 -455 2.97 5.10 2.00

2034 13.38 9.94 -3.44 100 40 9.00 -428 2.95 5.10 1.70

2035 13.10 9.56 -3.54 100 40 8.60 -391 2.93 5.10 1.30

2036 12.80 9.39 -3.41 100 40 8.40 -345 2.90 5.10 1.10

2037 12.47 9.02 -3.45 100 40 8.00 -290 2.86 5.10 0.70

2038 12.12 8.75 -3.37 100 40 7.70 -225 2.81 5.10 0.40

2039 11.74 8.38 -3.36 100 40 7.30 -151 2.75 5.10

2040 11.36 8.41 -2.95 100 40 7.30 -68 2.68 5.10

2041 10.96 8.44 -2.52 103 39.97 7.30 2 2.53 5.10

2042 10.57 8.47 -2.09 109 39.81 7.30 2 2.10 5.10

2043 10.18 8.51 -1.67 115 39.54 7.30 6 1.69 5.10

2044 9.82 8.55 -1.28 121 39.17 7.30 5 1.29 5.10

2045 9.46 8.58 -0.88 128 38.71 7.30 5 0.90 5.10

2046 9.10 8.62 -0.48 136 38.17 7.30 7 0.50 5.10

2047 8.70 8.67 -0.03 145 37.68 7.30 1 0.04 5.10

2048 8.32 8.71 0.39 154 37.2 7.30 7 -0.37 5.10

2049 7.98 8.76 0.78 164 36.69 7.30 14 -0.74 5.10

2050 7.67 8.81 1.14 174 36.15 7.30 9 -1.12 5.10

2051 7.49 8.85 1.36 182 35.6 7.30 1 -1.36 5.10

2052 7.35 8.89 1.54 189 35.05 7.30 0 -1.54 5.10

2053 7.13 8.93 1.81 198 34.49 7.30 15 -1.77 5.10

2054 6.93 8.97 2.05 208 33.92 7.30 22 -2.00 5.10

2055 6.75 9.02 2.27 218 33.34 7.30 21 -2.23 5.10

2056 6.60 9.06 2.46 228 32.75 7.30 10 -2.44 5.10

2057 6.46 9.10 2.64 237 32.16 7.30 18 -2.61 5.10

2058 6.35 9.14 2.79 246 31.57 7.30 19 -2.76 5.10

2059 6.26 9.18 2.93 255 30.98 7.30 13 -2.90 5.10

2060 6.19 9.22 3.04 263 30.40 7.30 33 -2.98 5.10

2061 6.14 9.26 3.13 270 29.82 7.30 9 -3.11 5.10

2062 6.11 9.30 3.19 277 29.25 7.30 14 -3.17 5.10

2063 5.96 9.33 3.37 289 28.67 7.30 36 -3.32 5.10

2064 5.83 9.37 3.54 302 28.08 7.30 38 -3.49 5.10

2065 5.71 9.40 3.69 314 27.48 7.30 32 -3.65 5.10

2066 5.61 9.43 3.82 327 26.87 7.30 14 -3.80 5.10

2067 5.53 9.45 3.93 338 26.26 7.30 40 -3.88 5.10

2068 5.46 9.48 4.02 349 25.65 7.30 58 -3.96 5.10

2069 5.41 9.50 4.10 360 25.03 7.30 5 -4.09 5.10

2070 5.37 9.53 4.16 369 24.41 7.30 1 -4.16 5.10

2071 5.35 9.55 4.20 377 23.80 7.30 56 -4.14 5.10

2072 5.34 9.57 4.23 385 23.19 7.30 29 -4.20 5.10

2073 5.35 9.59 4.24 392 22.59 7.30 69 -4.17 5.10

2074 5.37 9.61 4.23 399 21.99 7.30 14 -4.22 5.10

2075 5.41 9.62 4.22 404 21.40 7.30 34 -4.19 5.10

2076 5.45 9.64 4.18 408 20.82 7.30 40 -4.15 5.10

 Summarized

CostRt IncRt ActBal Change in

2001 OASDI OASDI OASDI ActBal

-2075 10.82 9.85 -0.97 0.90

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2001 Trustees Report Office of the Actuary

 With Ult TF Real Int Rate of 3.00 **Including borrowing from Ind Accts in Form of SST Bonds Social Security Administration

* Net of Benefit Offset *** Excluding reinvestment of interest in SST Bonds. December 16, 2001
Table 3 a DeMint: Sensitivity--IA/Annuity Yields 1-Percent Below Expected IA Cntrb 5.1 %, Ben Offset 100.0 % 

NO Clawback With Ult Real TF Int Rate of 3.0 <40,IAYld/%Stk Percent of Real Int Rt First 1.33 Year after earnings 2.0

at Death <65 With Ult Real IA Yld Rate for Age 40+ of 4.0 4.0 IA Assets Effectv Cash Flow Net Purchase Change in OASDI

If No Survivor With Offset Annuity Net Yld Rate of 3.8 60 held in OASDI to the GF of SST Bonds Contrib Rt from--

Stock Yld 6.5% Cost Income Annual TFR** SST Bonds Contrib (Tab c) by Individual IA Transfer

Year Rate* Rate Balance 1-1-yr 0n 12/31 Rate (bill cur$) Accounts*** Contrib from GF

2001 10.49 12.72 2.23 239 12.40

2002 10.42 12.72 2.30 264 12.40

2003 10.43 8.70 -1.74 289 40 8.37 -7 1.58 4.03

2004 10.48 8.39 -2.09 290 40 8.05 -18 1.72 4.35

2005 10.56 8.32 -2.24 288 40 7.97 -24 1.76 4.43

2006 10.64 8.25 -2.39 284 40 7.90 -31 1.81 4.50

2007 10.77 8.18 -2.59 279 40 7.82 -41 1.86 4.58

2008 10.93 8.15 -2.78 272 40 7.77 -53 1.89 4.63

2009 11.12 8.12 -3.00 262 40 7.73 -67 1.93 4.67

2010 11.30 8.09 -3.21 252 40 7.68 -82 1.95 4.72

2011 11.47 8.05 -3.42 240 40 7.63 -99 1.97 4.77

2012 11.70 8.01 -3.68 226 40 7.59 -122 1.99 4.81

2013 11.94 7.98 -3.96 210 40 7.54 -148 2.00 4.86

2014 12.20 7.95 -4.26 193 40 7.50 -177 2.02 4.90

2015 12.48 7.94 -4.54 174 40 7.47 -208 2.02 4.93

2016 12.75 7.94 -4.81 153 40 7.46 -242 2.02 4.94

2017 13.03 7.93 -5.10 131 40 7.44 -280 2.01 4.96

2018 13.31 10.33 -2.98 108 40 9.82 -320 2.01 4.98 2.40

2019 13.58 11.63 -1.95 100 40 11.10 -363 2.00 5.00 3.70

2020 13.84 11.83 -2.01 100 40 11.29 -408 1.98 5.01 3.90

2021 14.07 12.03 -2.04 100 40 11.47 -453 1.97 5.03 4.10

2022 14.27 12.24 -2.03 100 40 11.65 -498 1.95 5.05 4.30

2023 14.45 12.46 -2.00 100 40 11.84 -544 1.92 5.06 4.50

2024 14.61 12.67 -1.94 100 40 12.03 -590 1.89 5.07 4.70

2025 14.74 12.78 -1.95 100 40 12.12 -636 1.85 5.08 4.80

2026 14.84 12.80 -2.04 100 40 12.11 -682 1.82 5.09 4.80

2027 14.91 12.91 -2.00 100 40 12.20 -727 1.77 5.10 4.90

2028 14.95 12.94 -2.01 100 40 12.20 -771 1.72 5.10 4.90

2029 14.95 12.96 -1.99 100 40 12.20 -811 1.67 5.10 4.90

2030 14.92 12.98 -1.93 100 40 12.20 -848 1.61 5.10 4.90

2031 14.85 13.01 -1.85 100 40 12.20 -884 1.55 5.10 4.90

2032 14.77 13.03 -1.74 100 40 12.20 -918 1.48 5.10 4.90

2033 14.66 12.75 -1.90 100 40 11.90 -948 1.42 5.10 4.60

2034 14.50 12.77 -1.73 100 40 11.90 -971 1.35 5.10 4.60

2035 14.31 12.59 -1.72 100 40 11.70 -988 1.29 5.10 4.40

2036 14.10 12.41 -1.69 100 40 11.50 -1,000 1.22 5.10 4.20

2037 13.87 12.23 -1.64 100 40 11.30 -1,007 1.14 5.10 4.00

2038 13.61 12.05 -1.57 100 40 11.10 -1,008 1.06 5.10 3.80

2039 13.34 11.87 -1.48 100 40 10.90 -1,005 0.98 5.10 3.60

2040 13.06 11.68 -1.38 100 40 10.70 -997 0.90 5.10 3.40

2041 12.78 11.40 -1.37 100 40 10.40 -986 0.81 5.10 3.10

2042 12.49 11.32 -1.17 100 40 10.30 -972 0.71 5.10 3.00

2043 12.22 11.14 -1.08 100 40 10.10 -959 0.62 5.10 2.80

2044 11.96 10.96 -1.00 100 40 9.90 -947 0.52 5.10 2.60

2045 11.70 10.78 -0.92 100 40 9.70 -934 0.42 5.10 2.40

2046 11.44 10.60 -0.84 100 40 9.50 -918 0.32 5.10 2.20

2047 11.16 10.53 -0.63 100 40 9.40 -894 0.20 5.10 2.10

2048 10.89 10.35 -0.54 100 40 9.20 -870 0.07 5.10 1.90

2049 10.64 10.27 -0.36 100 40 9.10 -850 -0.04 5.10 1.80

2050 10.40 10.20 -0.21 100 40 9.00 -831 -0.16 5.10 1.70

2051 10.25 10.22 -0.03 100 40 9.00 -832 -0.24 5.10 1.70

2052 10.11 10.14 0.02 100 40 8.90 -839 -0.33 5.10 1.60

2053 9.98 10.06 0.08 100 40 8.80 -844 -0.42 5.10 1.50

2054 9.85 10.08 0.23 100 40 8.80 -852 -0.50 5.10 1.50

2055 9.74 10.00 0.26 100 40.00 8.70 -864 -0.58 5.10 1.40

2056 9.64 10.02 0.38 100 40.00 8.70 -880 -0.65 5.10 1.40

2057 9.55 10.04 0.49 100 40.00 8.70 -901 -0.73 5.10 1.40

2058 9.47 10.06 0.59 100 40.00 8.70 -925 -0.80 5.10 1.40

2059 9.40 9.98 0.58 100 40.00 8.60 -954 -0.87 5.10 1.30

2060 9.34 10.10 0.76 100 40.00 8.70 -987 -0.93 5.10 1.40

2061 9.29 10.12 0.83 100 40.00 8.70 -1,026 -0.99 5.10 1.40

2062 9.25 10.03 0.78 100 40.00 8.60 -1,070 -1.05 5.10 1.30

2063 9.19 10.05 0.86 100 40.00 8.60 -1,085 -1.08 5.10 1.30

2064 9.13 10.06 0.93 100 40.00 8.60 -1,119 -1.13 5.10 1.30

2065 9.08 9.98 0.89 100 40.00 8.50 -1,157 -1.17 5.10 1.20

2066 9.05 10.09 1.05 100 40.00 8.60 -1,201 -1.21 5.10 1.30

2067 9.02 10.11 1.09 100 40.00 8.60 -1,251 -1.25 5.10 1.30

2068 8.99 10.12 1.12 100 40.00 8.60 -1,307 -1.29 5.10 1.30

2069 8.98 10.13 1.15 100 40.00 8.60 -1,369 -1.32 5.10 1.30

2070 8.97 10.14 1.17 100 40.00 8.60 -1,440 -1.34 5.10 1.30

2071 8.97 10.15 1.18 100 40.00 8.60 -1,518 -1.37 5.10 1.30

2072 8.98 10.21 1.23 100 40.00 8.65 -1,606 -1.39 5.10 1.35

2073 8.99 10.27 1.28 100 40.00 8.70 -1,703 -1.41 5.10 1.40

2074 9.01 10.28 1.27 100 40.00 8.70 -1,810 -1.42 5.10 1.40

2075 9.04 10.29 1.25 100 40.00 8.70 -1,927 -1.43 5.10 1.40

2076 9.07 10.30 1.23 100 40.00 8.70 -2,059 -1.44 5.10 1.40

 Summarized

CostRt IncRt ActBal Change in

2001 OASDI OASDI OASDI ActBal

-2075 12.01 11.04 -0.97 0.89

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2001 Trustees Report Office of the Actuary

 With Ult TF Real Int Rate of 3.00 **Including borrowing from Ind Accts in Form of SST Bonds Social Security Administration

* Net of Benefit Offset *** Excluding reinvestment of interest in SST Bonds. December 16, 2001
Table 4 a DeMint: Sensitivity--IA/Annuity Yields at Expected Treas Bond Yield IA Cntrb 5.1 %, Ben Offset 100.0 % 

NO Clawback With Ult Real TF Int Rate of 3.0 <40,IAYld/%Stk Percent of Real Int Rt First 1.33 Year after earnings 2.0

at Death <65 With Ult Real IA Yld Rate for Age 40+ of 2.9 2.9 IA Assets Effectv Cash Flow Net Purchase Change in OASDI

If No Survivor With Offset Annuity Net Yld Rate of 2.7 60 held in OASDI to the GF of SST Bonds Contrib Rt from--

Stock Yld 6.5% Cost Income Annual TFR** SST Bonds Contrib (Tab c) by Individual IA Transfer

Year Rate* Rate Balance 1-1-yr 0n 12/31 Rate (bill cur$) Accounts*** Contrib from GF

2001 10.49 12.72 2.23 239 12.40

2002 10.42 12.72 2.30 264 12.40

2003 10.43 8.70 -1.74 289 40 8.37 -7 1.59 4.03

2004 10.48 8.39 -2.09 290 40 8.05 -18 1.71 4.35

2005 10.56 8.32 -2.24 288 40 7.97 -25 1.74 4.43

2006 10.64 8.25 -2.39 284 40 7.90 -33 1.77 4.50

2007 10.77 8.18 -2.59 278 40 7.82 -45 1.80 4.58

2008 10.93 8.15 -2.78 271 40 7.77 -57 1.81 4.63

2009 11.12 8.12 -3.00 261 40 7.73 -73 1.83 4.67

2010 11.30 8.09 -3.21 250 40 7.68 -90 1.83 4.72

2011 11.48 8.05 -3.43 236 40 7.63 -110 1.83 4.77

2012 11.70 8.01 -3.69 221 40 7.59 -134 1.82 4.81

2013 11.95 7.98 -3.97 204 40 7.54 -163 1.81 4.86

2014 12.22 7.95 -4.27 185 40 7.50 -195 1.81 4.90

2015 12.50 7.94 -4.56 164 40 7.47 -229 1.79 4.93

2016 12.78 7.94 -4.84 141 40 7.46 -267 1.76 4.94

2017 13.07 9.13 -3.94 117 40 8.64 -309 1.73 4.96 1.20

2018 13.36 11.73 -1.63 100 40 11.22 -354 1.70 4.98 3.80

2019 13.65 12.03 -1.62 100 40 11.50 -402 1.67 5.00 4.10

2020 13.92 12.22 -1.70 100 40 11.69 -453 1.64 5.01 4.30

2021 14.16 12.63 -1.54 100 40 12.07 -504 1.60 5.03 4.70

2022 14.39 12.84 -1.55 100 40 12.25 -556 1.56 5.05 4.90

2023 14.59 12.95 -1.64 100 40 12.34 -609 1.51 5.06 5.00

2024 14.77 13.16 -1.61 100 40 12.53 -664 1.46 5.07 5.20

2025 14.93 13.48 -1.45 100 40 12.82 -720 1.41 5.08 5.50

2026 15.06 13.59 -1.47 100 40 12.91 -776 1.36 5.09 5.60

2027 15.17 13.70 -1.47 100 40 13.00 -833 1.30 5.10 5.70

2028 15.25 13.72 -1.52 100 40 13.00 -889 1.24 5.10 5.70

2029 15.29 13.85 -1.44 100 40 13.10 -943 1.17 5.10 5.80

2030 15.30 13.97 -1.33 100 40 13.20 -996 1.10 5.10 5.90

2031 15.28 13.99 -1.30 100 40 13.20 -1,049 1.03 5.10 5.90

2032 15.25 14.01 -1.24 100 40 13.20 -1,101 0.96 5.10 5.90

2033 15.18 13.93 -1.25 100 40 13.10 -1,150 0.89 5.10 5.80

2034 15.07 13.85 -1.23 100 40 13.00 -1,193 0.82 5.10 5.70

2035 14.94 13.76 -1.17 100 40 12.90 -1,232 0.75 5.10 5.60

2036 14.78 13.68 -1.10 100 40 12.80 -1,267 0.68 5.10 5.50

2037 14.60 13.59 -1.01 100 40 12.70 -1,300 0.60 5.10 5.40

2038 14.40 13.41 -0.99 100 40 12.50 -1,329 0.53 5.10 5.20

2039 14.19 13.32 -0.87 100 40 12.40 -1,355 0.45 5.10 5.10

2040 13.97 13.13 -0.84 100 40 12.20 -1,379 0.37 5.10 4.90

2041 13.76 13.05 -0.71 100 40 12.10 -1,402 0.29 5.10 4.80

2042 13.54 12.86 -0.68 100 40 11.90 -1,425 0.21 5.10 4.60

2043 13.33 12.78 -0.55 100 40 11.80 -1,449 0.13 5.10 4.50

2044 13.13 12.69 -0.44 100 40 11.70 -1,475 0.05 5.10 4.40

2045 12.93 12.51 -0.42 100 40 11.50 -1,500 -0.04 5.10 4.20

2046 12.73 12.42 -0.31 100 40 11.40 -1,526 -0.12 5.10 4.10

2047 12.52 12.34 -0.18 100 40 11.30 -1,548 -0.21 5.10 4.00

2048 12.32 12.16 -0.16 100 40 11.10 -1,572 -0.31 5.10 3.80

2049 12.13 12.17 0.04 100 40 11.10 -1,599 -0.39 5.10 3.80

2050 11.96 12.09 0.13 100 40 11.00 -1,630 -0.48 5.10 3.70

2051 11.84 12.11 0.26 100 40 11.00 -1,678 -0.55 5.10 3.70

2052 11.75 12.02 0.28 100 40 10.90 -1,733 -0.61 5.10 3.60

2053 11.66 12.04 0.38 100 40 10.90 -1,793 -0.68 5.10 3.60

2054 11.58 12.05 0.47 100 40 10.90 -1,859 -0.74 5.10 3.60

2055 11.51 12.07 0.56 100 40.00 10.90 -1,930 -0.80 5.10 3.60

2056 11.45 12.08 0.63 100 40.00 10.90 -2,008 -0.85 5.10 3.60

2057 11.40 12.00 0.60 100 40.00 10.80 -2,091 -0.91 5.10 3.50

2058 11.35 12.11 0.76 100 40.00 10.90 -2,180 -0.96 5.10 3.60

2059 11.31 12.02 0.72 100 40.00 10.80 -2,274 -1.00 5.10 3.50

2060 11.27 12.14 0.86 100 40.00 10.90 -2,375 -1.05 5.10 3.60

2061 11.24 12.05 0.81 100 40.00 10.80 -2,482 -1.09 5.10 3.50

2062 11.22 12.16 0.95 100 40.00 10.90 -2,596 -1.13 5.10 3.60

2063 11.19 12.17 0.98 100 40.00 10.90 -2,703 -1.16 5.10 3.60

2064 11.17 12.09 0.91 100 40.00 10.80 -2,830 -1.19 5.10 3.50

2065 11.16 12.20 1.04 100 40.00 10.90 -2,964 -1.22 5.10 3.60

2066 11.15 12.21 1.06 100 40.00 10.90 -3,108 -1.25 5.10 3.60

2067 11.14 12.22 1.07 100 40.00 10.90 -3,260 -1.28 5.10 3.60

2068 11.14 12.23 1.08 100 40.00 10.90 -3,422 -1.31 5.10 3.60

2069 11.15 12.33 1.19 100 40.00 11.00 -3,595 -1.33 5.10 3.70

2070 11.16 12.34 1.19 100 40.00 11.00 -3,779 -1.35 5.10 3.70

2071 11.17 12.35 1.18 100 40.00 11.00 -3,975 -1.37 5.10 3.70

2072 11.19 12.36 1.17 100 40.00 11.00 -4,185 -1.39 5.10 3.70

2073 11.21 12.47 1.26 100 40.00 11.10 -4,408 -1.41 5.10 3.80

2074 11.24 12.47 1.24 100 40.00 11.10 -4,645 -1.43 5.10 3.80

2075 11.26 12.58 1.32 100 40.00 11.20 -4,898 -1.44 5.10 3.90

2076 11.30 12.59 1.29 100 40.00 11.20 -5,169 -1.45 5.10 3.90

 Summarized

CostRt IncRt ActBal Change in

2001 OASDI OASDI OASDI ActBal

-2075 12.70 11.99 -0.70 1.16

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2001 Trustees Report Office of the Actuary

 With Ult TF Real Int Rate of 3.00 **Including borrowing from Ind Accts in Form of SST Bonds Social Security Administration

* Net of Benefit Offset *** Excluding reinvestment of interest in SST Bonds. December 16, 2001
Table 3. Monthly Annuity as Percent of Social Security Benefit -- Single Annuity-- UNISEX

 Retire at 65 PRELIMINARY* Contrib Rt: 8 % for $1, 3 % for Max

Percent of Present Law OASDI Retirement Benefit Provided with Annuity from Spec% IA

Contributions Start 2003, or Age 21, If Later, Through Age 64

DeMint Contrib Rts Based on Formula

 Percent of Assets Invested in Equities IA Annual Admin = 0.1 % of

60.0% 88.6% 31.4% 0.0% IA Annuity Admin = 0.3 Assets

 Percent of Assets in Corporate Bonds

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% --Balance in LT U.S. Govt Bonds

Real Net Yield on Assets During Accumulation Real Yld @ ages <40 is 0.00% Higher 

5.0 6.0 4.0 2.9

Year Attain Annuity Real Return Rate -- Net of IA Administrative Expenses

Age 65 4.8 5.80002 3.799 2.7

Scaled Low Earner

2012 10.9 12.4 9.5 8.1

2022 33.6 40.7 27.6 22.1

2032 67.5 87.1 52.1 39.2

2042 107.0 147.0 77.9 55.1

2052 121.6 171.1 86.6 59.8

Scaled Medium Earner

2012 12.7 14.4 11.1 9.5

2022 37.9 45.8 31.2 25.0

2032 75.6 97.5 58.5 44.0

2042 121.4 167.0 88.4 62.5

2052 139.7 197.1 99.2 68.4

Scaled High Earner

2012 12.8 14.5 11.2 9.6

2022 36.1 43.6 29.8 24.0

2032 71.4 92.0 55.4 41.8

2042 117.2 161.4 85.2 60.2

2052 137.4 194.7 97.3 66.8

Steady Maximum Earner

2012 11.2 12.7 9.8 8.4

2022 29.3 35.3 24.2 19.6

2032 57.0 73.3 44.3 33.5

2042 95.7 132.0 69.5 49.1

2052 120.3 172.4 84.3 57.3

Note: "Self Annuitization" presumes that retirees would continue to invest their assets

in the same manner as before retirement, and make monthly withdrawals that,

on average, roughly match the pattern of a CPI-indexed life annuity.

* Note: Values may be somewhat overstated due to use of general population mortality 

 for annuity calculations. Earnings Scale

Factors #2: using cross section

 data of all fully insured for

 1985-94

Based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2001 Trustees Report

OCACT/SSA December 16, 2001
Table 4. Monthly Annuity as Percent of Social Security Benefit -- Joint & 2/3 Survivor Annuity

 Retire at 65 PRELIMINARY* Contrib Rt: 8 % for $1, 3 % for Max

Percent of Present Law OASDI Retirement Benefit Provided with Annuity from Spec% IA

Contributions Start 2003, or Age 21, If Later, Through Age 64

DeMint Contrib Rts Based on Formula

 Percent of Assets Invested in Equities IA Annual Admin = 0.1 % of

60.0% 88.6% 31.4% 0.0% IA Annuity Admin = 0.3 Assets

 Percent of Assets in Corporate Bonds --Balance in LT U.S. Govt Bonds

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Real Net Yield on Assets During Accumulation Real Yld @ ages <40 is 0.00% Higher 

5.0 6.0 4.0 2.9 5.0 6.0 4.0 2.9

Year Annuity Real Return Rate -- Net of IA Administrative Expenses

Attain 4.8 5.8 3.8 2.7 4.8 5.8 3.8 2.7

Age 65

2-earner couple Scaled Low Earner 1-earner couple

2012 10.2 11.6 8.9 7.5 6.8 7.8 5.9 5.1

2022 31.5 38.3 25.8 20.6 21.2 25.8 17.3 13.8

2032 63.3 82.1 48.7 36.4 42.8 55.4 32.9 24.6

2042 100.6 138.7 72.9 51.3 67.9 93.7 49.3 34.7

2052 114.5 161.8 81.2 55.8 77.3 109.3 54.8 37.7

2-earner couple Scaled Medium Earner 1-earner couple

2012 11.9 13.6 10.3 8.8 8.0 9.1 6.9 5.9

2022 35.5 43.1 29.1 23.2 23.9 29.0 19.6 15.6

2032 71.0 91.9 54.7 40.9 47.9 62.1 36.9 27.6

2042 114.2 157.6 82.7 58.2 77.1 106.5 55.9 39.3

2052 131.5 186.3 93.0 63.8 88.8 125.8 62.8 43.1

2-earner couple Scaled High Earner 1-earner couple

2012 12.0 13.6 10.4 8.9 8.0 9.2 7.0 6.0

2022 33.8 41.0 27.8 22.3 22.8 27.6 18.7 15.0

2032 67.1 86.7 51.8 38.8 45.3 58.6 34.9 26.2

2042 110.2 152.4 79.8 56.0 74.4 102.9 53.9 37.8

2052 129.4 184.1 91.2 62.3 87.4 124.3 61.6 42.1

2-earner couple Steady Maximum Earner 1-earner couple

2012 10.5 12.0 9.2 7.8 7.0 8.0 6.1 5.2

2022 27.5 33.2 22.6 18.2 18.5 22.3 15.2 12.2

2032 53.5 69.1 41.4 31.2 36.1 46.6 28.0 21.0

2042 90.0 124.7 65.1 45.7 60.8 84.2 44.0 30.9

2052 113.3 162.9 79.0 53.4 76.5 110.0 53.4 36.1

Note: "Self Annuitization" presumes that retirees would continue to invest their assets

in the same manner as before retirement, and make monthly withdrawals that,

on average, roughly match the pattern of a CPI-indexed life annuity.

* Note: Values may be somewhat overstated due to use of general population mortality 

 for annuity calculations. Earnings Scale

Factors #2: using cross section

 data of all fully insured for

 1985-94

Based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2001 Trustees Report

OCACT/SSA December 16, 2001
Table A3. Accumulated Assets in Individual Account at Retirement Earnings Scale 2

 Retire at 65 Contrib Rt: 8 % for $1, 3 % for Max Factors #2: using cross section

DeMint Accumulated IA at Spec Percent of OASDI Taxable Earnings data of all fully insured for

Contributions Start 2003, or Age 21, If Later, Through Age 64 1985-94

Accumulated Assets at Age 65

DeMint Contrib Rts Based on Formula

 Percent of Assets Invested in Equities IA Annual Admin = 0.1 % of

60.0% 88.6% 31.4% 0.0% Assets

 Percent of Assets in Corporate Bonds --Balance in LT U.S. Govt Bonds

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Year Real Net Yield on Assets During Accumulation Real Yld @ ages <40 is 0.00% Higher 

Attain 5.0 6.0 4.0 2.9 5.0 6.0 4.0 2.9

Age 65 Scaled Low Earner

(current dollars) (constant 2000 dollars)

2012 15,474 16,234 14,750 13,996 10,932 11,469 10,421 9,888

2022 71,518 79,704 64,256 57,230 36,519 40,699 32,811 29,223

2032 214,619 254,431 181,695 152,050 79,208 93,901 67,057 56,116

2042 527,589 664,849 421,603 332,585 140,732 177,346 112,461 88,716

2052 928,102 1,196,777 726,033 560,705 178,933 230,732 139,975 108,101

(current dollars) Scaled Medium Earner (constant 2000 dollars)

2012 29,780 31,229 28,401 26,965 21,039 22,063 20,065 19,050

2022 133,016 148,050 119,671 106,750 67,921 75,598 61,107 54,509

2032 397,029 470,282 336,448 281,899 146,529 173,564 124,171 104,038

2042 988,545 1,246,887 789,362 622,329 263,690 332,602 210,559 166,003

2052 1,759,957 2,275,286 1,373,535 1,058,363 0.771 339,309 438,662 264,809 204,046

(current dollars) Scaled High Earner (constant 2000 dollars)

2012 39,610 41,507 37,803 35,921 27,984 29,324 26,707 25,378

2022 167,596 186,142 151,118 135,142 85,579 95,049 77,165 69,007

2032 495,781 586,423 420,817 353,309 182,974 216,427 155,308 130,393

2042 1,260,727 1,592,595 1,005,468 791,944 336,293 424,818 268,204 211,248

2052 2,287,946 2,969,820 1,778,971 1,365,850 441,103 572,564 342,975 263,328

(current dollars) Steady Maximum Earner (constant 2000 dollars)

2012 41,332 43,252 39,503 37,596 29,201 30,557 27,909 26,561

2022 164,606 182,348 148,825 133,509 84,052 93,112 75,994 68,173

2032 479,843 566,363 408,269 343,786 177,092 209,024 150,677 126,879

2042 1,247,260 1,577,806 993,720 782,240 332,701 420,873 265,070 208,659

2052 2,425,784 3,183,372 1,866,858 1,418,702 467,677 613,736 359,919 273,518

Average Annual Earnings level in 2000 is assumed at:

Low 15,156

Average 33,680 (=SSA AWI)

High 53,888

Ultimate Assumed Growth Rates and Real Yields

4.30 percent annual increase in Average Earnings

3.30 percent annual CPI increase

3.00 percent annual real yield on LT U.S. Government Bonds

3.50 percent annual real yield on Corporate Bonds

6.50 percent annual real yield on Equities

0.10 percent annual Administrative Expense

3.398 percent equity premium over LT Govt Bonds

Based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2001 Trustees Report

OCACT/SSA December 16, 2001