EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS

IN THE 2021 SOCIAL SECURITY TRUSTEES REPORT

ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 126

by Polina Vlasenko

SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION

OFFICE OF THE CHIEF ACTUARY

April 2022

SSA Pub. No. 11-11545
.
i

List of Figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii

List of Tables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v

I. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

II. Employment Projections in the 2021 Trustees Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

III. Factors Influencing the Projected Ratios of Employment to Population . . . . . . . . . . 7

a. Unemployment Rate Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

b. Labor Force Participation Rate Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

IV. Factors Affecting Labor Force Participation Rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

a. Factors Affecting Labor Force Participation Rates Adjusted for 

Demographic Composition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

b. Factors Affecting Unadjusted Labor Force Participation Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

V. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

Appendix 1: Detailed Projections for Ratios of Employment to Population and 

Labor Force Participation Rates for the 2021 Trustees Report. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

Appendix 2: OCACT’s Labor Force Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

TABLE OF CONTENTS
ii
iii

LIST OF FIGURES

1 Historical and Projected Ratio of Employment to Population (unadjusted)

2021 Trustees Report (Intermediate assumptions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

2 Historical and Projected Ratio of Employment to Population (age-sex-adjusted)

2021 Trustees Report (Intermediate assumptions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

3 Projected Change in Ratio of Employment to Population, Men (by age group)

2021 Trustees Report (intermediate assumptions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

4 Projected Change in Ratio of Employment to Population, Women (by age group)

2021 Trustees Report (intermediate assumptions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

5 Historical and Projected Unemployment Rates (annual, unadjusted)

2021 Trustees Report (intermediate assumptions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

6 Historical and Projected Unemployment Rates (annual, age-sex-adjusted)

2021 trustees Report (intermediate assumptions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

7 Projected Change in Unemployment Rates by age group, 2021Q2 to 2030Q4

2021 Trustees Report (intermediate assumptions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

8 Historical and Projected Labor Force Participation Rates (unadjusted)

2021 Trustees Report (intermediate assumptions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

9 Historical and Projected Labor Force Participation Rates (age-sex-adjusted)

2021 Trustees Report (intermediate assumptions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

10 Factors Driving the Projected Change in Labor Force Participation Rates for 

Men 16+, LFPRs adjusted for age, marital status, and child presence

2021 Trustees Report (intermediate assumptions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

11 Factors Driving the Projected Change in Labor Force Participation Rates for 

Women 16+, LFPRs adjusted for age, marital status, and child presence

2021 Trustees Report (intermediate assumptions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

12 Factors Driving the Projected Change in Labor Force Participation Rates for 

Men 16+, 2021 Trustees Report (intermediate assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

13 Factors Driving the Projected Change in Labor Force Participation Rates for 

Women 16+, 2021 Trustees Report (intermediate assumptions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

Figure Description Page
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iii

LIST OF TABLES

1 Ratio of Employment to Civilian Noninstitutional Population, Men . . . . . . . . . . 20

2 Ratio of Employment to Civilian Noninstitutional Population, Women. . . . . . . . 23

3 Ratio of Employment to Civilian Noninstitutional Population. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

4 Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates, Men. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

5 Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates, Women . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

6 Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

7 Labor Force Participation Rates (adjusted for age, sex, marital status, and 

presence of children, 2011 base): 2021Q2 to 2030Q4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

8 Labor Force Participation Rates (adjusted for age, sex, marital status, and 

presence of children, 2011 base): 2030Q4 to 2095Q4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

9 Labor Force Participation Rates: 2021Q2 to 2030Q4. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

10 Labor Force Participation Rates (unadjusted): 2030Q4 to 2095Q4 . . . . . . . . . . . 37

A1 OCACT Labor Force Model; LFPR Estimated Equations, Men . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

A2 OCACT Labor Force Model; LFPR Estimated Equations, Women . . . . . . . . . . . 44

Table Description Page
vi
1

I. Introduction

The Board of Trustees of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Funds produces an annual report on the financial status of the OASI and DI programs (hereafter, the Trustees Report). This report

is prepared by the Office of the Chief Actuary (OCACT) at the Social Security Administration, in conjunction with representatives of each of the Trustees. The Trustees set demographic, economic, and programmatic assumptions that

serve as a basis for projections presented in the Trustees Report. The assumptions are described in publicly available

documents.1

 The projections included in each year’s Trustees Report extend for 75 years into the future.

Employment projected over the 75-year long-range projection period is a key component of the financial status of the

trust funds of the OASI and DI programs. Employment is a critical input into both the payroll tax revenue (income) and

the scheduled benefit payments (cost) for the trust funds. In this study, we provide details on the employment projections that underlie the projections of financial status of the trust funds in the 2021 Trustees Report. The employment

projections used for the 2021 report were based on an updated model, which incorporates data from the latest complete

economic cycle (2007-19) and reflects changes in the relationships among factors affecting employment and labor

force participation.

The employment projections result from combining the labor force projections, produced by OCACT’s labor force participation model, and the projected unemployment rates, based on the underlying demographic, economic, and programmatic assumptions set by the Trustees.

Employment (the number of people who receive monetary compensation for their work) is a concept that can be measured more precisely than labor force participation or unemployment and is more directly related to the payroll tax revenue and earnings credits that are fundamental to the OASI and DI programs. The labor force includes (1) those who

are employed and (2) those who are currently out of work and are actively searching for employment (classified as

unemployed). Traditionally, data on the employment status of the population are collected via a monthly survey by the

Bureau of Labor Statistics. Any survey introduces measurement errors associated with self-reporting. However,

employment measures can also be obtained through other data sources (employer records, administrative data, and the

like), which makes the employment measures more precise than labor force participation or unemployment. In addition, the concept of being employed (working for pay) is less open to misinterpretation. Other concepts, including labor

force participation and unemployment, rely on the self-reporting of people who say they are actively searching for

work–something that cannot be verified with any other data sources and the interpretation of which can vary from person to person and shift over time.

Because the population changes over time, the ratio of employment to population, rather than simply the level of

employment, is the relevant measure to reflect the evolution of employment over time. Changes in the employment-topopulation ratio can have a significant influence on OASI and DI program finances. A higher employment-to-population ratio leads to more workers who make payroll tax contributions to the trust funds. Thus, an increase in the employment-to-population ratio initially results in an increase in payroll tax revenues. Over time, the increase in the number of

workers who make payroll tax contributions will result in an increase in the number of workers who are eligible for

benefit payments in the event that they meet the other program eligibility criteria, and an increase in the total number of

years of employment for some workers. Both of these effects result in an increase in benefit payments. The net effect of

an increase in the employment-to-population ratio on the financial status of the program over the fixed 75-year projection horizon tends to be positive (an improvement) because the increase in payroll tax revenue is realized before the

increase in benefit payments.

This study describes: 

(1) the historical and projected employment-to-population ratios underlying the projections in the 2021 Trustees

Report;

(2) the labor force participation rate projections and the unemployment rate projections that give rise to the

employment projections; and 

(3) key factors affecting the trends in the projections of employment and labor force participation.

1 See https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2021/2021_Long-Range_Demographic_Assumptions.pdf, https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2021/2021_Long-Range_Economic_Assumptions.pdf, and https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2021/2021_Long-Range_Disability_Assumptions.pdf
2

II. Employment Projections in the 2021 Trustees Report

The ratios of average weekly employment to the civilian noninstitutional population for men, women, and everyone

ages 16 and older, both historical (1981-2020) and projected in the 2021 Trustees Report (2021-95), are shown in figure 1. Because employment rates vary greatly by age, and changes in the age and sex distribution of the population

have occurred in the past and are projected to continue in the future, it is easier to discern the changes in employment

ratios if the age-sex distribution of the population is held constant. Figure 2 shows historical and projected ratios of

employment to population, where the relative sizes of population subgroups by age and sex are held constant at the

2011 proportions.

Tables 1, 2, and 3 in Appendix 1 show the ratios of employment to population in more detail, including the ratios for

each age group and sex, as well as the age-sex-adjusted ratios based on the 2011 age distribution of the civilian noninstitutional U.S. population.

Figure 1—Historical and Projected Ratio of Employment to Population (Unadjusted)

2021 Trustees Report (intermediate assumptions)

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

all 16+ women 16+ men 16+

Shaded areas represent recessions

percent
3

Figure 2—Historical and Projected Ratio of Employment to Population (age-sex-adjusted)

2021 Trustees Report (intermediate assumptions)

The figures show that the ratio of employment to population is cyclical, rising during economic expansions and falling

during recessions. In addition to the cyclical fluctuations, some longer-run trends are apparent. In the historical period,

as shown in Figure 1, the unadjusted ratio of employment to population for men fell somewhat, from about 71 percent

in 1981 to about 66 percent in recent years (prior to a sharp decrease during the recession of 2020). For women, the

ratio of employment to population increased substantially from just under 48 percent in 1981 to a peak of over

57 percent in 2000, after which a gradual decline has begun. In recent years, it was around 55 percent. 

The changes in the unadjusted rates were partially driven by the changing age distribution of the population. If the age

distribution of population is adjusted to be held constant, as shown in Figure 2, the same trends are present but the magnitude of changes is somewhat different. In the historical period, the age-adjusted ratio of employment to population

for men fell from slightly over 70 percent in 1981 to around 68 percent in recent years, while for women the ratio rose

from slightly below 47 percent in 1981 to a local peak of about 56 percent in 2000. After that, the ratio for women fluctuated between 55 and 56 percent through 2010, with larger fluctuations after 2010. Right before the recession of 2020,

the age-adjusted ratio for women stood at 57.3 percent.

Combining the trends for men and women, the age-sex-adjusted ratio of employment to population for everyone age 16

and older rose from about 58 percent in 1981 to a peak of 63 percent in 2000. Since then, it fluctuated around 61 percent, reaching 62.8 percent in 2019, the latest peak of the economic cycle. In 2020, the ratio of employment to population fell to 58.9 percent because of the recession.

In the projection period, the ratio of employment to population is projected to rise in the immediate future, as the economy recovers from the brief but severe recession of 2020. The age-sex-adjusted ratio of employment to population for

everyone age 16 and over is projected to rebound from a low recession-induced level of 58.9 percent in 2020 to 62.8

percent in 2023, before rising gradually over the longer term. By 2095, the end of the projection period, the age-sexadjusted ratio is projected to reach 63.9 percent. 

The trend in the overall age-sex-adjusted ratio of employment to population is a combination of trends in the ageadjusted ratios for men and women. The age-adjusted ratio for men 16 and older is projected to rebound from a recession-induced low of 64.5 percent in 2020 to a peak of 68.8 percent in 2024 before receding slightly. Over the longer

term, the age-adjusted ratio of employment to population for men is projected to rise gradually and reach 69 percent in

2095, the end of the projection period.

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

all 16+ women 16+ men 16+

Shaded areas represent recessions

percent
4

The age-adjusted ratio for women 16 and older is projected to rebound from a recession-induced low of 53.6 percent in

2020 to 57.3 percent in 2024, after which it is projected to continue rising gradually. By 2095, the end of the projection

period, the age-adjusted ratio of employment to population for women is projected to reach 59.1 percent.

Unlike the age-sex-adjusted ratio, the unadjusted ratios of employment to population are projected to fall gradually

over the long term, once the recovery from the recession of 2020 is complete. The primary driving force behind this fall

is the changing age distribution of the population, with a rising proportion of people at older ages, where employment

tends to be lower. The factors driving the projected trajectory of the ratios of employment to population for men and

women are discussed in detail below.

The projected changes in the ratio of employment to population result from combining the projected changes in labor

force participation rates and unemployment rates. Appendix 2 describes the main factors that affect projected labor

force participation rates. The projections for labor force participation rates and unemployment rates are discussed in

more detail in section III of this study. 

Figures 3 and 4 present a more detailed look at the projected changes in the ratios of employment to population by age

groups for men (figure 3) and for women (figure 4).

Figure 3—Projected Change in Ratio of Employment to Population, Men (by Age Group)

2021 Trustees Report (intermediate assumptions)

Figure 3 shows the projected change in the ratio of employment to population for men by age group for two periods:

the short-range period (2021Q2 to 2030Q4) and the last 65 years of the 75-year long-range period (2030Q4 to

2095Q4). In the short-range projection period, the employment-to-population ratio is expected to increase for men ages

20 and older. For teenagers, the ratio of employment to population is projected to fall somewhat: by 3.0 percentage

points for those age 16-17 and by 1.6 percentage points for those age 18-19. This decrease is primarily driven by projected changes in the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate for teenagers is projected to rise eventually from the

unusually low levels observed in early 2021 to its assumed long-range value, which is more in line with historical experience.2 As a result, both labor force participation and employment for these age groups decrease. Factors affecting the

unemployment rates and the labor force participation rates for men of various ages are discussed in more detail in section III of this study. 

2 The unemployment rates for ages 16-17 and 18-19 for both men and women remained unusually low throughout 2021, but at the time the 2021 Trustees Report 

was prepared, data were available only through the first quarter of 2021. In the 2021 Trustees Report, the projected unemployment rates for ages 16-17 and 18-19 

remain low for a few years, before rising to their ultimate values.

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

16-1718-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-69

70+

16+*

2021Q2 to 2030Q4

2030Q4 to 2095Q4

* age adjusted

percentage points
5

The largest projected increases in the ratio of employment to population in the short-range period occur for men of

older ages. For men aged 60 to 64, the ratio of employment to population is projected to increase by 7.4 percentage

points between 2021Q2 and 2030Q4. For men aged 65 to 69, the projected increase is 8.3 percentage points. These

increases are driven in large part by rising longevity and by the increase in the Social Security normal retirement age.

As Social Security’s normal retirement age gradually rises to 67, the size of the benefits claimed prior to age 70 falls.

This provides an incentive for people between the ages of 62 (the earliest age a person can claim benefits) and 69 to

stay in the labor force longer. In addition, rising life expectancy lengthens the expected time in retirement, thus providing incentives for people to continue working longer to ensure adequate finances in retirement. The projected increase

in labor force participation combines with the projected decrease in age-specific unemployment rates to result in an

even more pronounced increase in the projected ratio of employment to population for these ages.

Several other factors influence projected employment for men at these ages by influencing their labor force participation. A small boost to labor force participation rates (LFPRs) and to employment comes from a projected decrease in

the disability prevalence rate, consistent with the recent trends in disability incidence. Changes in educational attainment provide a small boost to LFPRs and employment for men aged 60 to 64, but reduce somewhat the LFPRs of men

aged 65 to 69. Changes in the share of men married with spouse present slightly reduce LFPRs for men aged 60 to 64

and increase them for men aged 65 to 69.

Finally, another factor that raises projected LFPRs and the ratio of employment to population for men at these ages is

phasing out the model’s adjustment factors (or addfactors). As is the case for any econometric model, the estimates produced by OCACT’s labor force model rarely match the data observed in the last historical period exactly. To account

for this discrepancy and to smoothly link the projected values to the observed last historical value, we employ a set of

adjustment factors, which are phased out by the end of the short-range period. For the 2021 Trustees Report, these

addfactors are negative, so phasing them out results in rising projected LFPRs and thus rising employment. 

For men age 16 and older, the ratio of employment to population (age-adjusted) is projected to increase 2.2 percentage

points between 2021Q2 and 2030Q4.

In the last 65 years of the 75-year projection period (2030Q4 to 2095Q4), the ratio of employment to population for

men under the age of 60 is projected to change little. Significant increases in the ratio are projected only for men of

older ages: 2.1 percentage points for ages 60 to 64 and 3.9 percentage points for ages 65 to 69. These projected

increases are driven primarily by rising life expectancy. Rising life expectancy is also projected to increase the ratio of

employment to population of men 70 and older; however, that effect is almost completely counteracted by the shift in

the age distribution toward older ages within this age group (employment tends to be lower for older ages). As a result,

the ratio of employment to population of men 70 and older is projected to change little over this period.

For men 16 and older, the ratio of employment to population (age-adjusted) is projected to increase 0.6 percentage

point between 2030Q4 and 2095Q4. 
6

Figure 4—Projected Change in Ratio of Employment to Population, Women (by Age Group)

2021 Trustees Report (intermediate assumptions)

Figure 4 shows the projected change in the ratio of employment to population for women by age group for two periods:

the short-range period (2021Q2 to 2030Q4) and the last 65 years of the 75-year long-range period (2030Q4 to

2095Q4). 

As is the case for men, the employment-to-population ratios for women of nearly all ages are expected to increase over

the short-range projection period. The only age group with a projected decrease in the ratio of employment to population is 16-17 year-olds. Their ratio of employment to population is projected to decrease by 2.5 percentage points by

2030Q4, driven primarily by business-cycle forces. As the unemployment rate for this age group rises from an unusually low level observed in early 2021 to converge to its assumed long-range value more in line with the historical experience, both labor force participation and employment for this age group decrease.

For all other ages, the ratio of employment to population is projected to rise by 2030Q4, with the largest increases happening for women age 55-59 (an increase of 6.7 percentage points) and 60-64 (an increase of 8.6 percentage points). 

These changes over the short-range projection period are driven primarily by business-cycle forces (a projected

decrease in the unemployment rate, which drives the ratio of employment to population higher) and rising educational

attainment. In addition, similar to the effect for men of the same age, the projected rise in life expectancy increases the

incentives to stay employed longer, contributing to the rise in the ratio of employment to population for women age 55

and older.

As is the case for men, the change in the Social Security replacement rate due to the normal retirement age rising over

time induces women to work longer, contributing to the projected increase in the ratio of employment to population for

women age 60 to 64 and 65 to 69. Finally, phasing out the discrepancy between the model estimates and data (the

addfactors), which takes place over the first several years of the projection period, also contributes to the increase in the

employment-to-population ratio for women at these ages.

For women age 16 and older, the ratio of employment to population (age-adjusted) is projected to increase

3.3 percentage points between 2021Q2 and 2030Q4.

In the last 65 years of the 75-year projection period (2030Q4 to 2095Q4), the ratio of employment to population for

women under the age of 60 is projected to change little. Significant increases in the ratio are projected only for women

of older ages: 2.6 percentage points for ages 60 to 64, 9.7 percentage points for ages 65 to 69, and 2.8 percentage points

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

16-1718-1920-2425-29

30-3435-3940-4445-49

50-54

55-5960-64

65-69

70+

16+*

2021Q2 to 2030Q4

2030Q4 to 2095Q4

* age adjusted

percentage points
7

for ages 70 and older. These projected increases are driven primarily by rising life expectancy and, to a lesser degree,

by rising educational attainment, offset somewhat by rising disability prevalence.

The ratio of employment to population for women of younger ages, between the ages of 30 and 49, is projected to

decrease slightly between 2030Q4 and 2095Q4, driven primarily by changes in marital status and the presence of children. As women postpone childbearing to older ages, a larger proportion of women ages 30 to 49 end up having children under age 6, which reduces both labor force participation and employment.

For women 16 and older in total, the ratio of employment to population (age-adjusted) is projected to increase

1.1 percentage points between 2030Q4 and 2095Q4. 

For the entire population age 16 and older, both men and women, the age-sex-adjusted ratio of employment to population is projected to increase over the 75-year projection period, as shown in figure 2. In the short-range period (2021Q2

to 2030Q4), the ratio is projected to increase 3.6 percentage points, reflecting mostly the recovery from the recession of

2020. In the last 65 years of the 75-year long-range projection period (2030Q4 to 2095Q4), the ratio is projected to

increase 0.8 percentage point, driven primarily by rising life expectancy. 

However, the unadjusted ratio of employment to population, shown in figure 1, shows a different pattern. Rising life

expectancy and lower birth rates since 1965, in addition to providing incentives to stay employed longer, also result in

a rising proportion of the population at older ages, where the ratio of employment to population tends to be lower.

When the age composition of the population changes over time, the unadjusted ratio of employment to population for

everyone age 16 and older is projected to rise much less than the age-sex-adjusted ratio. In the short-range period

(2021Q2 to 2030Q4), the unadjusted ratio of employment to population is projected to rise just under 1 percentage

point. This increase reflects a substantial recovery of employment from the 2020 recession in the first two years of the

projection period, followed by an offsetting effect due to the changing age composition of the population. In the last

65 years of the 75-year long-range projection period (2030Q4 to 2095Q4), the unadjusted ratio of employment to population of age 16 and older is projected to fall by 1.3 percentage points, driven by the changing age composition of the

population. 

III. Factors Influencing the Projected Ratios of Employment to Population

The projections for the ratio of employment to population reflect the combination of the projected labor force participation rates (LFPRs) and unemployment rates. Specifically:

where

 is the ratio of employment to population,

 is the labor force participation rate, and 

 is the unemployment rate.

The projected LFPRs are produced by OCACT’s labor force model, and the projected unemployment rates for each

age-sex group are derived from the Trustees’ ultimate assumption for the aggregate unemployment rate. This section

presents in more detail the unemployment rate and LFPR projections in the 2021 Trustees Report. 

a. Unemployment Rate Projections

For each Trustees Report, the Trustees make an assumption for the ultimate unemployment rate, which is the expected

unemployment rate that would prevail over the longer term in the absence of economic fluctuations. For the 2021

Trustees Report, the assumed ultimate age-sex-adjusted aggregate unemployment rate is 4.5 percent (under the intermediate assumptions) and a transition path links the last historical unemployment rate to this assumed ultimate unemployment rate within the first several years of the projection period. To create the projections by age and sex, OCACT

E

pop

---------= LFPR × ( ) 1 – RU

E

pop

---------

LFPR

RU
8

projects age-sex-specific unemployment rates consistent with the assumed aggregate unemployment rate and the historical relationship among the age-sex-specific rates, and then develops a transition path for each age-sex group. 

For each age-sex group, and thus for the aggregate, the unemployment rate is projected to reach the assumed ultimate

value within the first 10 years of the projection period. The evolution of the unemployment rate from the last historical

value to the assumed ultimate value depends on the deviation of gross domestic product from its potential (full-employment) level. The specific relationship for each age-sex group is based on the observed historical relationship. 

The historical (1980-2020) and projected (2021 onward) unemployment rates for men age 16 and over, women age 16

and over, and for everyone age 16 and over are shown in figure 5. The same unemployment rates, adjusted to keep the

age-sex composition of the population constant, are shown in figure 6.

Figure 5—Historical and Projected Unemployment Rates (Annual, Unadjusted)

2021 Trustees Report (intermediate assumptions)

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

all 16+ women 16+ men 16+

Shaded areas represent recessions

percent
9

Figure 6—Historical and Projected Unemployment Rates (Annual, Age-Sex-Adjusted)

2021 Trustees Report (intermediate assumptions)

The last historical data point known at the time the projections for the 2021 Trustees Report were developed was the

first quarter of 2021. The unemployment rate for everyone age 16 and older increased dramatically during the recession

of 2020, reaching a peak of 13.1 percent in the second quarter of 2020. The unemployment rate fell substantially in the

second half of 2020, resulting in the average annual unemployment rate for all of 2020 of 8.1 percent. By the first quarter of 2021, the unemployment rate had fallen substantially, but was still elevated at 6 percent. The 2021 Trustees

Report projects that the unemployment rate will continue to decrease, reaching its long-range assumed ultimate value

of 4.5 percent by the end of 2023. 

The projected trajectory of unemployment rates varies by age group. Figure 7 shows the projected change in the unemployment rate for men and women from 2021Q2 to 2030Q4, by age group. 

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

all 16+ women 16+ men 16+

Shaded areas represent recessions

percent
10

Figure 7—Projected Change in Unemployment Rates by age group, 2021Q2 to 2030Q4

2021 Trustees Report (intermediate assumptions)

In the short-range period, from 2021Q2 to 2030Q4, unemployment rates for ages 20 and older, for both men and

women, are projected to fall. However, for ages 16 to 17 and 18 to 19, for both men and women, unemployment rates

are projected to rise from the unusually low levels observed in early 2021 to the ultimate values that are more in line

with historical experience. The age-specific unemployment rates for all age-sex groups are projected to reach their ultimate values in the first few years of the projection period, and thus they are not projected to change after 2030.

In the last 65 years of the 75-year projection period (2031Q4 to 2095Q4), economic cycles are assumed to have little

effect on the long-range actuarial balance, so projections are based on the assumed average trends and levels rather than

cyclical fluctuations around those trends and levels. During this period, the age-sex-adjusted unemployment rate for

everyone 16 and older is projected to remain at its assumed ultimate value of 4.5 percent. The age-adjusted ultimate

unemployment rate is slightly higher for men (4.54 percent) than for women (4.46 percent). The unadjusted unemployment rates continue to vary slightly over this period due to the changing age composition of the population.

b. Labor Force Participation Rate Projections

OCACT projects labor force participation rates using a model that consists of 153 equations for the age-sex-specific

labor force participation rates. For relevant age and sex categories, there are separate equations by marital status and

the presence or absence of a child under the age of six. Each equation contains a set of factors that influence the labor

force participation rate for the given age and sex category. These are: 

• the state of the economy, as indicated by the unemployment rates for each age-sex group for the current quarter

and the four previous quarters

• the disability prevalence rate

• educational attainment (for ages 50 and older)

• for older ages, the effect of marital status as indicated by the proportion of those currently married with spouse

present (which is related to both employment and the retirement decision)

• the Social Security benefit replacement rate (for ages 62-69)

• the Social Security retirement earnings test (for ages 62-69)

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

16-1718-1920-2425-2930-34

35-3940-4445-4950-54

55-5960-6465-69

70+

16+*

Men Women

* age adjusted

percentage points
11

• a lagged cohort variable designed to model labor force participation at ages 75 and older 

For ages above peak labor force participation age, the equations include a life expectancy adjustment that raises the

labor force participation rate as projected life expectancy increases. The coefficient for each factor is constructed either

by an analysis of the historical relationships or by regression, based on data through 2019 (the peak of the last complete

economic cycle). A more detailed description of the equations is provided in Appendix 2.

Below, we show historical (1981-2020) and projected (2021-95) LFPRs for men age 16 and older, women age 16 and

older, and everyone age 16 and older for the 2021 Trustees Report. Figure 8 shows LFPRs not adjusted for the age and

sex distribution of the population. Figure 9 shows age-sex adjusted LFPRs, which allow for a more meaningful comparison across long time periods. Detailed tables, which show the values corresponding to figures 8 and 9, as well as

additional detail by age groups, are given in Appendix 1.

Figure 8—Historical and Projected Labor Force Participation Rates (Unadjusted)

2021 Trustees Report (intermediate assumptions)

48

52

56

60

64

68

72

76

80

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

all 16+ women 16+ men 16+

Shaded areas represent recessions

percent
12

Figure 9—Historical and Projected Labor Force Participation Rates (Age-Sex-Adjusted)

2021 Trustees Report (intermediate assumptions)

The unadjusted LFPRs, shown in figure 8, are generally projected to decrease once the recovery from the recession is

complete. This decrease is driven by the changing age distribution of the population, with a higher proportion of the

population at older ages, where labor force participation tends to be lower.

As shown in figure 9, age-adjusted LFPRs for men have generally been falling over time. In 1981 the LFPR for men

ages 16 and older was 75.4 percent. By 2014, the LFPR for men declined to a low point of 70.1 percent. It rebounded

somewhat, to 71.3 by 2019, before declining to 70.1 percent in 2020 because of the recession. For the 2021 Trustees

Report, age-adjusted LFPRs for men are projected to rise as the economy recovers from the recession, reaching 71.9

percent by 2024, before receding somewhat. The age-adjusted LFPR for men is projected to reach 71.6 percent by

2030, and gradually rise to 72.3 percent by 2095.

The age-adjusted LFPRs for women have generally been rising over time. In 1981, the LFPR for women ages 16 and

older was 50.4 percent. The rate increased to a level of 59.5 percent in 2019, the most recent peak of an economic

cycle. The age-adjusted LFPR for women fell to 58.6 percent in 2020 because of the recession. For the 2021 Trustees

Report, the age-adjusted LFPRs for women are projected to rise as the economy recovers from the recession, exceeding

the pre-recession level in 2022, and to continue rising gradually throughout the projection period. The age-adjusted

LFPR for women is projected to reach 60.7 percent by 2030, and gradually rise to 61.9 percent by 2095.

The age-sex-adjusted LFPRs for everyone, both men and women, age 16 and older, increased from 62.5 percent in

1981 to a peak of 65.6 percent in 2000, after which the rate stayed approximately level. At the peak of the last economic cycle, in 2019, the age-sex-adjusted LFPR was 65.2 percent. The recession of 2020 led to LFPR falling to 64.1

percent. For the 2021 Trustees Report, the age-sex-adjusted LFPR is projected to rise as the economy recovers from the

recession, exceeding the pre-recession level in 2022. It is projected to reach 66 percent by 2030, and gradually rise to

66.9 percent by 2095.

48

52

56

60

64

68

72

76

80

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

all 16+ women 16+ men 16+

Shaded areas represent recessions

percent
13

IV. Factors Affecting Labor Force Participation Rates 

a. Factors Affecting Labor Force Participation Rates Adjusted for Demographic Composition

In this section, we consider labor force participation rates while holding the demographic composition of the population (age, sex, marital status, and the presence of children) constant.3

 Doing so allows us to focus on the influence the

factors within the LFPR model have on the projected participation rates. Figures 10 and 11 summarize the changes in

projected LFPRs over the short-range period (2021Q2 to 2030Q4) and the last 65 years of the 75-year long-range

period (2030Q4 to 2095Q4). Tables 4 and 5 in Appendix 1 provide further details by age group.

The model variables reflect the influence of the state of the economy (captured by the relevant unemployment rates),

disability prevalence, educational attainment, the Social Security replacement rate, the Social Security retirement earnings test, lagged cohort effects for people 75 and older, and the life expectancy effect. The model variables are the same

for the entire projection period. However, as explained above, over the last 65 years of the long-range period, the unemployment rate projections are based on assumed average trends rather than cyclical fluctuations around those trends. As

a result, the projected unemployment rates remain constant, and thus the business-cycle variable does not contribute to

changes in LFPRs after 2030.

Figure 10 summarizes the projected effect of each factor within the LFPR model on the projected LFPR for men age 16

and older. The LFPR is adjusted for age, sex, marital status, and the presence of children. 

Figure 10—Factors Driving the Projected Change in Labor Force Participation Rate for Men 16+ 

LFPR adjusted for age, marital status, and child presence

2021 Trustees Report (intermediate assumptions)

From 2021Q2 to 2030Q4, the participation rate for men 16 and older is projected to increase by 1.7 percentage points.

Of the model factors, the largest positive contribution comes from the business-cycle effect: as the economy recovers

from the recession of 2020, the unemployment rate is projected to fall for most age groups, thus increasing labor force

participation. The improving economy is projected to increase the participation rate by nearly 0.5 percentage point.

Another positive effect comes from rising life expectancy, which is projected to increase the participation rate by

3 Note that the adjusted LFPRs discussed here are somewhat different from the age-sex-adjusted LFPRs shown in Figure 9. Figure 9 shows LFPRs where only the 

age and sex distribution of the population is held constant. For the adjusted LFPRs discussed here, not only is the age and sex distribution of the population held 

constant, but also the marital status distribution and presence of children are held constant at the distribution observed in the 2011 civilian noninstitutional U.S. population.

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Bus. Cycle*

Disab. Prev.

Education

Rep. Rate

Earn. Test

Lagged Cohort

Life Expect.

Addfactors

Total

2021Q2 to 2030Q4

2030Q4 to 2095Q4

percentage points

* applies only in 2021Q2 to 2030Q4 period
14

0.3 percentage point, largely due to rising participation of men ages 60 to 69. Other model factors influence the participation rate little, by less than 0.2 percentage point. 

A substantial increase in the projected participation rate during this period, 1.0 percentage point, comes from phasing

out the adjustments made in the early years of the projection period, the model addfactors. For the 2021 Trustees

Report, these addfactors are negative since the LFPRs observed in the last historical period are lower than what the

model would imply, given the values of the explanatory variables. Phasing out the addfactors results in rising projected

LFPRs in the early years of the projection.4

In the last 65 years of the projection period (2030Q4 to 2095Q4), the age-adjusted participation rate for men 16 and

older is projected to increase by 0.9 percentage point. This increase is driven primarily by rising life expectancy, which

is projected to increase the participation rate by 1.3 percentage points, largely by increasing the participation rates of

men ages 55 and older. This effect is offset somewhat by rising disability prevalence, which is projected to reduce the

participation rate by almost 0.5 percentage point, affecting most strongly the participation rates of men between ages of

50 and 64. Other model factors influence the participation rate little, by less than 0.2 percentage point. 

Figure 11 summarizes the projected effect of each model factor on the future LFPR for women age 16 and older. The

LFPR is adjusted for age, sex, marital status, and the presence of children. 

Figure 11—Factors Driving the Projected Change in Labor Force Participation Rate for Women 16+

LFPR adjusted for age, marital status, and child presence

2021 Trustees Report (intermediate assumptions)

From 2021Q2 to 2030Q4, the participation rate for women 16 and older is projected to increase by 2.2 percentage

points. Two of the model factors provide large contributions to this increase: the business-cycle effect as reflected in

the falling unemployment rate, and rising educational attainment. As is the case for men, as the economy recovers from

the recession of 2020, the unemployment rate for women is projected to fall, increasing their labor force participation

rate by nearly 0.8 percentage point. The rising educational attainment of women also increases their projected participation rate by 0.8 percentage point over this period, driven primarily by the participation of women between the ages of

55 to 64. Rising life expectancy also plays a role, increasing the projected participation rate by 0.2 percentage point.

Other model factors influence the participation rate little, less than 0.2 percentage point. Phasing out the addfactors, as

4 The OCACT labor force model also includes addfactors for certain age-sex groups that are used to smooth the age profile of LFPRs and other idiosyncrasies. 

These addfactors are not phased out over time and thus their effect persists into the last 65 years of the projection period (2030Q4 to 2095Q4), but this effect is 

extremely small. 

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Bus. Cycle*

Disab. Prev.

Education

Rep. Rate

Earn. Test

Lagged Cohort

Life Expect.

Addfactors

Total

2021Q2 to 2030Q4

2030Q4 to 2095Q4

percentage points

* applies only in 2021Q2 to 2030Q4 period
15

described above for men, raises the projected participation rate for women slightly, by 0.3 percentage point during this

period.

In the last 65 years of the projection period (2030Q4 to 2095Q4), the participation rate for women 16 and older is projected to increase by 1.3 percentage points. This projected increase is driven almost entirely by rising life expectancy,

which is projected to increase the participation rate by 1.1 percentage points, primarily by increasing the participation

rates of women ages 55 and older. Another small positive contribution comes from rising educational attainment,

which is projected to raise participation rates by 0.4 percentage point during this period. This effect comes primarily

from increased participation rates for women ages 60 to 69. These effects are partially offset by rising disability prevalence, which is projected to reduce the participation rate by 0.4 percentage point, affecting significantly the participation rates of women between the ages of 40 and 69. The lagged cohort effect, which projects the evolution of LFPRs at

ages 75 and older, further increases the participation rate by 0.2 percentage point. Other model factors influence the

participation rate little.

Combining the projections for men and women, the age-sex-adjusted LFPR for everyone age 16 and older is projected

to increase by nearly 2.0 percentage points in the period from 2021Q2 to 2030Q4 and by 1.1 percentage points in the

last 65 years of the 75-year projection period (2030Q4 to 2095Q4). 

b. Factors Affecting Unadjusted Labor Force Participation Rates

In addition to the factors within the labor force model, changes in the demographic distribution of the population (age,

sex, marital status, and the presence of children) can affect labor force participation rates. Here we summarize the influence of all relevant factors, including demographic forces, on the projected unadjusted LFPRs. To be able to analyze

the effect of demographic changes, the unadjusted LFPRs do not hold the demographic distribution of the population

constant, in contrast to the adjusted rates considered in the subsection above.

Figures 12 and 13 summarizes the influence of various factors on projected future LFPRs, for the short-range period

(2021Q2 to 2030Q4) and the last 65 years of the 75-year long-range period (2030Q4 to 2095Q4). Tables 6 and 7 in

Appendix 1 provide further details by age group. In contrast to the previous subsection, three additional factors are

included in these figures and tables: age, marital status, and child presence. These demographic factors had no effect on

the adjusted rates illustrated in the previous subsection, which were specifically constructed to eliminate the effects of

demographic factors. 
16

Figure 12—Factors Driving the Projected Change in Labor Force Participation Rate for Men 16+

2021 Trustees Report (intermediate assumptions)

Figure 12 summarizes the factors influencing projected unadjusted LFPR for men age 16 and older. The participation

rate for men age 16 and older is projected to decrease by 0.3 percentage point from 2021Q2 to 2030Q4 and by 2.4 percentage points from 2030Q4 to 2095Q4.

The largest influence on the projected LFPR for men comes from the projected changes in the age distribution of the

population. Aging of the population is projected to raise the proportion of people at older ages, where labor force participation tends to be lower. This aging effect is projected to reduce the participation rates for men by 2 percentage

points from 2021Q2 to 2030Q4 and by 3.4 percentage points from 2030Q4 to 2095Q4. At the same time, rising life

expectancy is projected to mitigate this effect somewhat, increasing the participation rate by 0.3 percentage point from

2021Q2 to 2030Q4 and by 1.6 percentage points from 2030Q4 to 2095Q4. 

Changes in marital status (the projected increase in the share of men at older ages who are married with spouse present)

reduce the participation rate for men by 0.2 percentage point from 2021Q2 to 2030Q4, and by an additional 0.2 percentage point from 2030Q4 to 2095Q4, driven primarily by the participation rate of men between the ages of 60 and 69.

Similar to the adjusted LFPR, the business cycle (falling unemployment rate) is projected to increase the unadjusted

LFPR for men by 0.4 percentage point from 2021Q2 to 2030Q4, while rising disability prevalence is projected to

reduce the LFPR for men by 0.4 percentage point from 2030Q4 to 2095Q4. In addition, changes in educational attainment are projected to lower the LFPR for men from 2021Q2 to 2030Q4 by 0.2 percentage point and raise it from

2030Q4 to 2095Q4 also by 0.2 percentage point, mostly driven by the effects of educational attainment on labor force

participation of men aged 65 and older. The model addfactors, mainly the phasing out of the discrepancy between the

model projections and the last historical data, increase the participation rate from 2021Q2 to 2030Q4 by 1.2 percentage

points. Other model factors are projected to have little effect. 

Figure 13 summarizes the factors influencing the projected unadjusted LFPR for women 16 and older for the periods

2021Q2 to 2030Q4 and 2030Q4 to 2095Q4. The participation rate for women 16 and older is projected to increase by

0.3 percentage point from 2021Q2 to 2030Q4 and decrease by 0.6 percentage point from 2030Q4 to 2095Q4.

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

Age

Mar. Status

Child Pres.

Bus. Cycle

Disab. Prev.

Education

Rep. Rate

Earn. Test

Lagged Cohort

Life Expect.

Addfactors

Total

2021Q2 to 2030Q4

2030Q4 to 2095Q4

percentage points
17

Figure 13—Factors Driving the Projected Change in Labor Force Participation Rate for Women 16+

2021 Trustees Report (intermediate assumptions)

As is the case for men, the largest influence comes from changes in the age distribution of the population. An increase

in the proportion of women at older ages, where labor force participation tends to be lower, is projected to reduce the

participation rate for women ages 16 and over by 1.9 percentage points from 2021Q2 to 2030Q4 and by 2.3 percentage

points from 2030Q4 to 2095Q4. At the same time, rising life expectancy is projected to mitigate this effect, increasing

the participation rate by 0.2 percentage point from 2021Q2 to 2030Q4 and by 1.3 percentage points from 2030Q4 to

2095Q4. The lagged cohort effect, which projects the evolution of LFPRs at ages 75 and older, further increases the

participation rates by 0.3 percentage point from 2021Q2 to 2030Q4 and 0.4 percentage point from 2030Q4 to 2095Q4.

As is the case with the adjusted LFPR, the business cycle (falling unemployment rate) is projected to increase the

LFPR for women from 2021Q2 to 2030Q4 (by 0.7 percentage point), while rising disability prevalence is projected to

reduce the LFPR from 2030Q4 to 2095Q4 (by 0.4 percentage point). Rising educational attainment of women is

expected to increase their labor force participation, by 0.7 percentage point from 2021Q2 to 2030Q4 and by 0.5 percentage point from 2030Q4 to 2095Q4. The model addfactors, mainly the phasing out of the discrepancy between the

model projections and the last historical data, increase the participation rate by 0.4 percentage point from 2021Q2 to

2030Q4. Other model factors are projected to have little effect. 

Combining the projections for men and women, the projected LFPR for everyone 16 and older is essentially the same,

at 61.5 percent, in 2030Q4 as it is in 2021Q2, although it rises and falls in the intervening period. It is then projected to

decrease by 1.4 percentage points from 2030Q4 to 2095Q4. As described above for men and women separately,

between 2021Q2 and 2030Q4, the effect of the aging population is offset by the life expectancy, business cycle, and

education effects. From 2030Q4 to 2095Q4, the effect of the aging of the population dominates, even though it is moderated somewhat by the effects of rising life expectancy and educational attainment. 

V. Conclusion

Projections of employment, labor force, and unemployment over the next 75 years are key components of the financial

status of the OASI and DI Trust Funds. The 2021 Trustees Report was the first report to present projections for employment, unemployment, and labor force reflecting the pandemic-induced recession of 2020. 

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

Age

Mar. Status

Child Pres.

Bus. Cycle

Disab. Prev.

Education

Rep. Rate

Earn. Test

Lagged Cohort

Life Expect.

Addfactors

Total

2021Q2 to 2030Q4

2030Q4 to 2095Q4

percentage points
18

The ratio of employment to population is projected to recover from the low levels experienced during the recession by

2023, after which the longer-term influences take over. Over the longer term, the age distribution of the population will

change as a result of both the increasing life expectancy and reduced birth rates after 1965. The projected increases in

life expectancy provide incentives for people to remain employed longer, thereby boosting labor force participation and

employment. In addition, the changing age distribution of the population is affecting the need for increased employment, especially at older ages. At the same time, increased longevity over time leads to a rising proportion of people at

older ages in the population. This aging of the population leads to the unadjusted labor force participation rate and the

ratio of employment to population being lower relative to trends in the combined age-sex-adjusted rates. Additional

smaller influences include projected changes in disability prevalence rates, which lead to decreases in the ratio of

employment to population, and rising educational attainment, which leads to a higher ratio of employment to population. All of these effects differ by age and sex. This study presents a detailed look at these influences for various agesex groups. 
19

APPENDIX 1: 

DETAILED PROJECTIONS FOR RATIOS OF

EMPLOYMENT TO POPULATION AND LABOR FORCE

PARTICIPATION RATES FOR THE

2021 TRUSTEES REPORT
20Table 1. Ratio of Employment to Civilian Noninstitutional Population, Men, by age group

2021 Trustees Report (intermediate assumptions), percent

Year 16-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70+ 

Historical

1981 37.37 57.14 74.16 86.48 90.19 91.38 90.60 89.42 86.19 78.24 56.42 26.89 NA 

1982 33.42 52.22 71.01 83.00 87.57 88.83 88.68 87.59 84.61 77.01 54.51 25.87 NA 1983 32.37 53.39 71.29 82.87 86.71 88.33 88.69 87.35 83.52 75.86 53.49 24.97 NA 

1984 34.04 55.68 74.91 86.19 89.14 90.29 90.57 88.77 85.08 76.26 53.14 23.78 NA 1985 35.24 56.58 75.33 87.14 89.79 90.51 90.25 88.87 84.58 76.10 53.23 23.61 NA 

1986 35.88 56.20 76.36 87.36 89.22 90.02 89.87 88.97 84.77 75.42 52.74 24.12 NA 1987 36.40 56.62 76.82 88.05 89.89 90.54 90.28 89.00 84.59 76.73 52.91 25.11 NA 

1988 37.75 58.22 77.48 88.40 90.24 90.94 90.79 89.71 85.41 76.55 52.48 25.14 NA 1989 37.59 59.20 77.67 88.67 91.12 90.88 91.12 89.61 86.45 76.70 53.02 25.42 NA 

1990 35.44 56.96 76.70 88.16 89.70 90.75 90.25 88.47 85.95 76.79 53.57 25.17 NA 1991 31.95 53.23 73.77 86.27 87.86 88.72 89.16 87.72 84.13 75.15 52.49 24.16 NA 

1992 30.92 53.10 73.10 85.25 87.51 87.95 87.99 87.05 83.80 74.54 51.40 24.92 NA 1993 32.08 52.90 73.86 85.99 87.76 88.08 88.25 87.12 83.49 74.16 51.32 24.48 NA 

1994 34.63 53.63 74.63 85.96 88.18 88.43 88.78 87.39 83.14 73.57 50.46 25.58 NA 1995 34.68 55.35 75.48 87.13 89.16 88.33 88.36 87.58 83.38 74.56 51.28 25.75 NA 

1996 33.36 54.66 74.72 87.76 89.44 88.88 88.45 87.57 83.98 75.32 52.39 26.46 NA 1997 33.48 54.07 75.25 87.95 90.01 89.51 88.86 87.99 85.04 76.28 52.71 27.45 NA 

1998 34.53 55.23 75.40 88.64 90.35 90.20 89.45 88.27 84.81 76.29 53.83 27.08 NA 1999 34.70 55.85 75.62 88.99 90.78 90.68 89.68 87.92 84.74 76.31 53.29 27.51 NA 

2000 34.12 57.01 76.64 88.90 91.49 90.57 89.63 87.99 84.62 75.28 53.51 29.33 NA 2001 30.94 53.80 74.23 87.32 90.08 89.47 88.94 87.34 83.81 74.80 54.58 29.29 NA 

2002 27.26 50.95 72.47 85.50 88.45 88.43 87.52 86.32 82.91 74.74 55.08 31.12 NA 2003 25.52 47.48 71.55 84.39 87.79 88.18 86.83 85.20 82.30 74.16 54.51 31.40 NA 

2004 24.07 48.84 71.56 85.27 88.41 88.46 87.54 85.68 82.26 74.52 54.79 31.40 6.51 2005 23.91 48.32 71.47 85.79 88.97 88.99 88.39 86.14 82.99 74.97 56.22 32.46 6.84 

2006 25.56 49.18 72.71 86.01 89.17 89.83 88.22 86.98 83.56 75.22 57.01 33.30 6.86 2007 23.47 46.22 71.66 86.50 89.36 89.98 88.56 86.98 83.74 75.27 57.32 33.12 7.42 

2008 20.06 44.88 69.71 83.93 88.09 88.43 87.54 85.88 82.50 75.82 57.69 33.91 7.71 2009 17.22 37.68 63.31 78.36 82.72 84.45 83.08 81.45 79.03 72.42 56.55 33.56 7.83 

2010 14.90 36.04 61.26 77.95 82.08 84.42 83.08 80.94 77.85 72.36 55.11 33.50 7.86 

2011 14.46 35.65 62.95 78.27 82.92 84.83 83.60 81.42 78.17 72.79 54.75 34.77 7.83 

2012 14.46 36.28 63.82 80.48 83.99 85.21 84.63 82.62 78.88 73.01 56.81 34.66 7.98 2013 15.45 36.85 63.55 80.12 84.80 85.43 85.57 82.31 79.07 73.60 57.08 35.02 8.64 

2014 16.17 37.85 64.95 80.50 85.54 86.44 86.21 83.64 80.15 73.41 59.05 34.29 8.78 2015 17.75 39.76 65.16 82.03 85.94 86.55 86.90 84.81 80.84 74.01 59.12 35.40 8.84 

2016 18.29 41.82 66.20 82.26 86.46 87.44 87.23 85.16 81.73 74.45 59.62 35.47 8.91 2017 19.25 40.97 67.89 83.00 86.61 87.91 87.64 85.79 81.87 75.62 60.38 35.96 9.35 

2018 18.72 41.35 67.60 84.04 87.45 88.32 88.36 86.31 82.77 76.54 61.08 36.44 9.56 2019 19.72 41.69 68.25 83.99 87.69 88.73 88.20 86.46 83.64 77.04 62.02 38.25 9.95 

2020 18.23 38.43 61.12 77.07 82.32 85.12 83.09 83.42 80.04 73.26 58.93 35.86 9.28 
21

Projected

2021 21.05 41.81 65.53 80.72 85.69 86.45 87.02 85.75 80.59 74.72 56.90 34.23 10.02 2022 21.86 42.86 67.45 83.16 87.42 87.63 88.42 87.03 82.59 76.08 59.47 37.21 11.06 

2023 21.66 42.88 67.89 83.87 87.95 88.19 88.70 87.33 83.44 76.75 61.43 39.20 11.39 2024 20.84 42.19 67.65 83.99 88.00 88.32 88.61 87.21 83.65 76.88 61.89 39.51 11.62 

2025 19.76 41.24 67.25 84.01 87.92 88.31 88.45 86.98 83.65 76.91 62.08 39.94 11.83 2026 18.50 40.11 66.80 84.05 87.82 88.27 88.29 86.72 83.61 76.92 62.29 40.29 12.04 

2027 17.77 39.49 66.57 84.06 87.76 88.23 88.21 86.56 83.56 76.87 62.36 40.53 12.20 2028 17.77 39.46 66.55 84.05 87.72 88.20 88.21 86.48 83.51 76.82 62.39 40.80 12.20 

2029 17.77 39.46 66.57 84.04 87.70 88.19 88.19 86.42 83.47 76.75 62.52 41.05 12.18 2030 17.77 39.46 66.57 84.00 87.66 88.21 88.21 86.39 83.41 76.77 62.68 41.12 12.19 

2031 17.77 39.45 66.58 83.97 87.65 88.22 88.22 86.38 83.32 76.83 62.77 41.20 12.21 2032 17.77 39.45 66.59 83.97 87.65 88.23 88.18 86.39 83.25 76.86 62.61 41.29 12.17 

2033 17.77 39.45 66.60 83.97 87.65 88.23 88.17 86.42 83.18 76.85 62.40 41.33 12.17 2034 17.77 39.45 66.61 83.98 87.65 88.22 88.17 86.45 83.12 76.79 62.19 41.39 12.19 

2035 17.77 39.45 66.61 84.00 87.65 88.21 88.18 86.45 83.11 76.79 62.22 41.53 12.19 2036 17.77 39.45 66.62 84.03 87.65 88.20 88.21 86.42 83.13 76.75 62.23 41.62 12.17 

2037 17.77 39.45 66.62 84.06 87.65 88.20 88.23 86.39 83.17 76.72 62.35 41.50 12.20 2038 17.77 39.45 66.63 84.09 87.65 88.20 88.24 86.38 83.22 76.74 62.27 41.40 12.25 

2039 17.77 39.45 66.64 84.10 87.66 88.19 88.24 86.39 83.24 76.79 62.25 41.24 12.35 2040 17.77 39.45 66.64 84.10 87.69 88.18 88.22 86.41 83.22 76.82 62.32 41.22 12.47 

2041 17.77 39.45 66.65 84.10 87.72 88.18 88.19 86.43 83.17 76.81 62.38 41.11 12.58 2042 17.77 39.45 66.65 84.11 87.75 88.18 88.18 86.44 83.12 76.87 62.48 41.11 12.66 

2043 17.77 39.45 66.65 84.11 87.78 88.17 88.17 86.44 83.08 76.94 62.57 41.02 12.74 2044 17.77 39.45 66.64 84.11 87.79 88.17 88.16 86.42 83.06 76.93 62.60 40.93 12.82 

2045 17.77 39.45 66.63 84.12 87.79 88.18 88.16 86.39 83.08 76.97 62.64 41.03 12.90 2046 17.77 39.45 66.63 84.13 87.78 88.21 88.16 86.37 83.10 77.01 62.69 41.21 12.94 

2047 17.77 39.45 66.63 84.14 87.78 88.24 88.15 86.36 83.12 77.05 62.80 41.30 12.98 2048 17.77 39.45 66.64 84.14 87.78 88.27 88.13 86.36 83.12 77.05 62.79 41.38 13.05 

2049 17.77 39.45 66.64 84.13 87.78 88.28 88.12 86.35 83.10 77.02 62.80 41.61 13.18 2050 17.77 39.45 66.64 84.12 87.79 88.28 88.13 86.35 83.08 77.00 62.92 41.77 13.34 

2051 17.77 39.45 66.64 84.11 87.82 88.27 88.15 86.35 83.06 76.96 63.10 41.65 13.50 2052 17.77 39.45 66.64 84.11 87.84 88.26 88.18 86.33 83.05 76.94 63.26 41.69 13.64 

2053 17.77 39.45 66.64 84.11 87.85 88.25 88.22 86.30 83.04 76.92 63.33 41.79 13.79 2054 17.77 39.45 66.65 84.11 87.84 88.26 88.23 86.28 83.03 76.91 63.32 41.78 13.91 

2055 17.77 39.45 66.65 84.11 87.83 88.28 88.23 86.28 83.03 76.91 63.27 41.92 14.02 2056 17.77 39.45 66.65 84.11 87.81 88.32 88.22 86.30 83.02 76.90 63.19 42.14 14.11 

2057 17.77 39.45 66.65 84.11 87.80 88.36 88.22 86.34 82.99 76.88 63.15 42.36 14.20 2058 17.77 39.45 66.65 84.11 87.80 88.38 88.21 86.38 82.95 76.88 63.15 42.46 14.26 

2059 17.77 39.45 66.65 84.11 87.80 88.38 88.22 86.40 82.92 76.89 63.20 42.47 14.31 2060 17.77 39.45 66.65 84.11 87.80 88.37 88.25 86.40 82.91 76.91 63.28 42.45 14.37 

2061 17.77 39.45 66.65 84.11 87.80 88.34 88.31 86.39 82.92 76.95 63.32 42.40 14.43 2062 17.77 39.45 66.66 84.11 87.80 88.32 88.36 86.38 82.95 77.00 63.33 42.40 14.48 

Table 1. Ratio of Employment to Civilian Noninstitutional Population, Men, by age group (Cont.)

2021 Trustees Report (intermediate assumptions), percent

Year 16-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70+ 
22

Note: For compactness, the table displays annual values. Annual values are averages of the quarterly values. Quarterly values are available on request.

2063 17.77 39.45 66.66 84.11 87.80 88.31 88.40 86.39 83.00 77.05 63.37 42.45 14.50 2064 17.77 39.45 66.66 84.11 87.80 88.31 88.41 86.40 83.02 77.07 63.44 42.53 14.53 2065 17.77 39.45 66.66 84.11 87.79 88.31 88.40 86.44 83.02 77.08 63.51 42.64 14.56 2066 17.77 39.45 66.66 84.11 87.79 88.31 88.36 86.51 83.01 77.07 63.62 42.72 14.56 

2067 17.77 39.45 66.66 84.11 87.79 88.30 88.33 86.58 83.00 77.05 63.79 42.76 14.56 2068 17.77 39.45 66.66 84.12 87.79 88.30 88.32 86.62 83.00 77.06 63.96 42.84 14.56 

2069 17.77 39.45 66.66 84.12 87.79 88.29 88.32 86.63 83.01 77.07 64.06 42.94 14.57 2070 17.77 39.45 66.66 84.12 87.79 88.29 88.32 86.62 83.05 77.09 64.08 43.05 14.59 

2071 17.77 39.45 66.66 84.12 87.78 88.29 88.32 86.58 83.13 77.12 64.07 43.22 14.59 2072 17.77 39.45 66.66 84.12 87.78 88.28 88.32 86.54 83.22 77.12 64.04 43.46 14.60 

2073 17.77 39.45 66.66 84.12 87.78 88.28 88.31 86.53 83.26 77.13 64.03 43.68 14.63 2074 17.77 39.45 66.66 84.12 87.78 88.27 88.30 86.52 83.28 77.11 64.07 43.84 14.68 

2075 17.77 39.45 66.66 84.12 87.78 88.27 88.30 86.52 83.26 77.09 64.15 43.91 14.72 2076 17.77 39.45 66.66 84.12 87.78 88.26 88.30 86.52 83.22 77.05 64.23 43.93 14.76 

2077 17.77 39.45 66.66 84.12 87.78 88.26 88.29 86.52 83.17 77.01 64.28 43.91 14.82 2078 17.77 39.45 66.66 84.12 87.78 88.26 88.29 86.51 83.15 77.01 64.29 43.94 14.88 

2079 17.77 39.45 66.66 84.12 87.78 88.25 88.28 86.50 83.13 77.02 64.27 44.01 14.91 2080 17.77 39.45 66.66 84.12 87.78 88.25 88.28 86.50 83.13 77.06 64.21 44.13 14.93 

2081 17.77 39.45 66.66 84.12 87.78 88.25 88.27 86.49 83.13 77.10 64.06 44.26 14.94 2082 17.77 39.45 66.66 84.11 87.79 88.25 88.27 86.48 83.12 77.13 63.90 44.34 14.95 

2083 17.77 39.45 66.66 84.11 87.79 88.26 88.27 86.47 83.11 77.14 63.87 44.38 14.95 2084 17.77 39.45 66.66 84.11 87.79 88.26 88.27 86.47 83.10 77.14 63.95 44.36 14.96 

2085 17.77 39.45 66.66 84.11 87.79 88.26 88.27 86.46 83.09 77.14 64.09 44.31 14.97 2086 17.77 39.45 66.66 84.11 87.79 88.26 88.27 86.45 83.08 77.14 64.26 44.16 14.97 

2087 17.77 39.45 66.66 84.11 87.79 88.26 88.27 86.45 83.07 77.15 64.39 44.01 14.96 2088 17.77 39.45 66.66 84.11 87.79 88.27 88.28 86.45 83.06 77.17 64.45 44.01 14.96 

2089 17.77 39.45 66.66 84.11 87.79 88.27 88.28 86.45 83.05 77.18 64.48 44.12 14.95 2090 17.77 39.45 66.66 84.11 87.78 88.27 88.29 86.45 83.05 77.19 64.51 44.34 14.94 

2091 17.77 39.45 66.66 84.11 87.78 88.27 88.30 86.45 83.04 77.21 64.54 44.59 14.91 2092 17.77 39.45 66.66 84.11 87.78 88.27 88.30 86.46 83.03 77.23 64.60 44.78 14.89 

2093 17.77 39.45 66.66 84.11 87.78 88.27 88.31 86.46 83.02 77.23 64.66 44.88 14.91 2094 17.77 39.45 66.67 84.11 87.78 88.27 88.31 86.47 83.02 77.24 64.72 44.95 14.95 

2095 17.77 39.45 66.67 84.11 87.78 88.27 88.32 86.48 83.03 77.25 64.78 45.02 15.01 

Table 1. Ratio of Employment to Civilian Noninstitutional Population, Men, by age group (Cont.)

2021 Trustees Report (intermediate assumptions), percent

Year 16-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70+ 
23

Table 2. Ratio of Employment to Civilian Noninstitutional Population, Women, by age group

2021 Trustees Report (intermediate assumptions), percent

Year 16-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70+ 

Historical

1981 33.68 50.01 61.84 61.82 61.30 62.44 63.79 61.06 55.69 47.31 31.44 14.25 NA 

1982 31.51 48.35 60.63 62.09 61.15 62.65 63.93 61.42 54.68 47.04 31.65 14.37 NA 1983 30.49 48.65 60.88 63.01 62.31 63.20 64.90 61.38 55.03 46.22 32.27 14.12 NA 

1984 32.78 51.55 62.72 64.72 64.48 65.96 66.57 62.52 56.56 47.53 32.13 13.57 NA 1985 33.67 51.89 64.17 65.72 65.44 67.56 68.15 64.42 58.06 47.95 32.25 12.99 NA 

1986 35.10 52.16 64.94 66.72 66.17 69.19 69.80 66.27 59.34 49.39 31.94 13.89 NA 1987 36.52 53.34 66.15 68.42 67.45 70.31 72.00 67.91 60.96 50.49 32.19 13.92 NA 

1988 36.71 54.80 66.60 69.10 68.16 71.23 73.07 69.88 62.82 51.79 32.96 14.89 NA 1989 37.54 54.34 66.41 69.50 69.24 71.90 74.42 71.90 63.87 53.15 34.68 15.82 NA 

1990 34.40 52.36 65.22 69.15 69.50 72.06 74.47 72.08 64.76 53.66 34.61 16.40 NA 1991 31.80 50.02 63.21 67.87 68.41 71.64 74.25 72.18 64.98 53.79 33.83 16.36 NA 

1992 30.64 49.00 63.58 68.36 68.47 71.00 74.16 72.36 65.43 54.48 34.82 15.51 NA 1993 31.33 50.55 64.03 68.13 68.67 70.92 74.22 72.96 66.66 54.77 35.52 15.64 NA 

1994 34.63 51.51 64.51 69.36 69.48 72.05 74.97 74.58 67.85 56.94 36.30 17.28 NA 1995 34.81 52.96 64.01 70.42 70.91 72.69 74.96 74.60 68.65 57.38 36.61 16.86 NA 

1996 35.68 51.57 64.89 71.30 70.82 72.95 75.65 75.61 69.44 57.79 36.86 16.45 NA 1997 33.96 52.89 66.77 72.92 71.30 73.41 75.98 75.92 71.30 59.06 38.51 17.03 NA 

1998 35.59 55.45 67.36 73.40 71.95 72.49 75.92 76.59 71.15 59.86 38.17 17.24 NA 1999 34.65 53.87 67.96 73.23 72.82 73.54 75.78 76.95 72.19 60.17 37.85 17.75 NA 

2000 35.16 54.65 67.92 73.40 72.65 73.11 76.25 77.07 72.45 59.85 39.16 18.94 NA 2001 32.95 51.92 67.25 71.85 71.60 73.06 75.41 75.91 72.15 59.99 41.40 19.38 NA 

2002 30.35 50.41 65.55 70.79 70.56 71.43 74.25 74.76 71.20 61.60 42.53 19.86 NA 2003 28.53 48.33 64.15 69.66 69.74 70.47 73.95 75.57 72.00 62.99 43.70 21.76 NA 

2004 27.18 48.20 64.31 68.71 70.21 70.92 73.50 75.22 71.77 62.62 43.71 22.53 6.51 2005 28.24 48.60 64.52 69.33 70.19 71.43 73.68 74.80 71.65 63.41 44.28 22.87 6.84 

2006 28.17 48.87 64.19 71.22 70.33 71.58 74.18 74.61 72.54 64.76 45.58 23.53 6.86 2007 26.14 47.42 65.02 71.11 70.98 71.07 74.36 74.61 72.41 64.59 46.60 24.87 7.42 

2008 23.61 45.43 63.84 71.38 70.65 71.55 73.79 74.24 71.86 65.16 47.05 25.49 7.71 2009 19.70 41.05 61.07 68.38 68.78 69.27 71.61 72.61 70.23 64.36 46.84 25.00 7.83 

2010 16.93 38.41 59.39 68.13 67.60 68.47 70.31 71.50 69.72 64.19 47.53 25.15 7.86 

2011 16.57 38.30 58.70 67.29 66.96 68.03 70.52 71.12 69.61 63.64 47.17 25.53 7.83 

2012 17.42 38.00 59.21 67.79 67.93 68.24 71.01 70.94 69.14 63.57 47.56 25.75 7.98 2013 17.90 38.88 59.79 68.09 68.20 68.99 70.11 71.06 69.07 63.84 47.49 26.11 8.64 

2014 18.68 39.75 60.92 69.06 68.85 69.93 71.10 71.48 69.63 63.59 48.12 26.27 8.78 2015 19.01 40.44 62.49 69.44 69.22 70.23 71.83 71.56 69.80 64.00 47.91 26.80 8.84 

2016 20.56 41.53 62.97 71.30 70.07 70.92 72.13 72.56 69.94 63.76 48.50 27.02 8.91 2017 22.45 41.94 64.20 72.78 71.25 71.45 72.93 73.21 70.87 64.10 49.57 26.95 9.35 

2018 22.58 42.48 64.72 73.48 72.16 72.23 73.25 74.06 71.43 64.31 50.40 27.94 9.56 2019 20.96 43.44 66.37 74.80 72.78 73.11 73.97 75.30 72.04 65.27 50.48 29.00 9.95 

2020 20.88 37.55 58.10 69.79 68.89 69.19 70.78 70.82 68.23 61.73 47.83 25.75 9.28 
24

Projected

2021 22.71 40.92 60.58 70.76 70.69 70.97 72.03 72.14 71.01 62.72 46.74 26.83 10.02 2022 22.70 41.71 62.43 72.62 72.04 72.37 73.45 73.67 73.05 64.11 47.91 28.48 11.06 

2023 22.54 42.08 63.18 73.46 72.52 72.72 73.85 74.14 73.81 65.17 49.32 29.11 11.39 2024 21.88 41.90 63.47 73.82 72.64 72.78 73.94 74.30 74.18 66.44 49.96 29.37 11.62 

2025 21.02 41.55 63.68 74.03 72.66 72.75 73.92 74.34 74.42 67.59 50.43 29.69 11.83 2026 20.00 41.04 63.91 74.23 72.66 72.70 73.85 74.39 74.65 68.62 50.88 29.91 12.04 

2027 19.44 40.74 64.05 74.33 72.58 72.61 73.75 74.41 74.77 69.02 51.41 30.18 12.20 2028 19.52 40.74 64.08 74.34 72.47 72.49 73.65 74.41 74.78 69.14 51.98 30.67 12.20 

2029 19.54 40.73 64.08 74.34 72.37 72.37 73.56 74.36 74.82 69.13 53.08 31.00 12.18 2030 19.56 40.73 64.07 74.33 72.29 72.29 73.56 74.41 74.95 69.20 54.12 31.31 12.19 

2031 19.59 40.72 64.06 74.31 72.22 72.20 73.57 74.43 75.08 69.27 54.91 31.56 12.21 2032 19.61 40.72 64.06 74.32 72.14 72.09 73.54 74.40 75.29 69.35 55.09 32.06 12.17 

2033 19.63 40.73 64.06 74.32 72.08 71.99 73.50 74.38 75.50 69.48 55.08 32.70 12.17 2034 19.65 40.74 64.06 74.29 72.02 71.89 73.44 74.37 75.58 69.56 55.01 33.68 12.19 

2035 19.66 40.73 64.06 74.25 71.96 71.80 73.38 74.36 75.53 69.84 55.11 34.59 12.19 2036 19.68 40.73 64.06 74.21 71.91 71.72 73.31 74.34 75.48 70.23 55.27 35.17 12.17 

2037 19.69 40.73 64.06 74.17 71.89 71.63 73.24 74.33 75.40 70.66 55.46 35.33 12.20 2038 19.70 40.74 64.06 74.13 71.87 71.55 73.17 74.31 75.32 71.00 55.58 35.35 12.25 

2039 19.70 40.74 64.05 74.10 71.83 71.47 73.11 74.30 75.26 71.13 55.71 35.43 12.35 2040 19.70 40.71 64.05 74.09 71.78 71.39 73.03 74.28 75.25 70.94 56.11 35.62 12.47 

2041 19.70 40.69 64.05 74.08 71.73 71.31 72.96 74.24 75.23 70.73 56.53 35.82 12.58 2042 19.70 40.70 64.05 74.06 71.67 71.27 72.89 74.20 75.22 70.47 57.01 36.01 12.66 

2043 19.70 40.71 64.05 74.04 71.61 71.26 72.83 74.15 75.21 70.21 57.29 36.14 12.74 2044 19.70 40.72 64.06 74.02 71.57 71.23 72.78 74.11 75.20 70.01 57.25 36.33 12.82 

2045 19.70 40.72 64.06 74.01 71.56 71.20 72.73 74.06 75.20 70.00 57.02 36.75 12.90 2046 19.71 40.72 64.06 73.97 71.55 71.17 72.69 74.02 75.21 70.02 56.79 37.10 12.94 

2047 19.71 40.71 64.06 73.94 71.54 71.13 72.66 73.99 75.20 70.03 56.51 37.50 12.98 2048 19.71 40.71 64.06 73.94 71.53 71.07 72.65 73.97 75.19 70.01 56.26 37.73 13.05 

2049 19.70 40.72 64.06 73.98 71.51 71.04 72.64 73.95 75.17 69.97 56.11 37.72 13.18 2050 19.70 40.72 64.06 74.01 71.50 71.03 72.64 73.94 75.14 69.95 56.17 37.61 13.34 

2051 19.70 40.72 64.06 74.04 71.46 71.03 72.63 73.93 75.12 69.96 56.22 37.52 13.50 2052 19.70 40.72 64.06 74.06 71.42 71.03 72.61 73.93 75.11 69.99 56.19 37.41 13.64 

2053 19.70 40.72 64.06 74.06 71.41 71.03 72.59 73.92 75.11 70.01 56.07 37.37 13.79 2054 19.70 40.72 64.06 74.06 71.44 71.02 72.57 73.91 75.11 70.03 55.95 37.38 13.91 

2055 19.70 40.72 64.06 74.06 71.47 71.02 72.57 73.90 75.13 70.04 55.91 37.55 14.02 2056 19.70 40.72 64.06 74.05 71.52 70.99 72.57 73.89 75.14 70.04 55.91 37.67 14.11 

2057 19.70 40.72 64.05 74.05 71.56 70.95 72.57 73.89 75.14 70.04 55.95 37.74 14.20 2058 19.70 40.72 64.05 74.05 71.57 70.92 72.57 73.89 75.14 70.04 55.98 37.75 14.26 

2059 19.70 40.72 64.05 74.05 71.57 70.92 72.57 73.90 75.14 70.04 56.02 37.77 14.31 2060 19.70 40.72 64.05 74.04 71.57 70.93 72.57 73.90 75.14 70.06 56.09 37.86 14.37 

2061 19.70 40.72 64.05 74.04 71.56 70.97 72.56 73.89 75.15 70.10 56.11 38.01 14.43 2062 19.69 40.72 64.05 74.04 71.55 71.02 72.54 73.89 75.18 70.13 56.08 38.22 14.48 

Table 2. Ratio of Employment to Civilian Noninstitutional Population, Women, by age group (Cont.)

2021 Trustees Report (intermediate assumptions), percent

Year 16-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70+ 
25

Note: For compactness, the table displays annual values. Annual values are averages of the quarterly values. Quarterly values are available on request.

2063 19.69 40.72 64.05 74.04 71.56 71.05 72.51 73.88 75.22 70.16 56.08 38.39 14.50 2064 19.69 40.72 64.05 74.04 71.56 71.05 72.50 73.87 75.25 70.17 56.12 38.47 14.53 2065 19.69 40.72 64.05 74.03 71.56 71.05 72.49 73.87 75.27 70.14 56.16 38.53 14.56 2066 19.69 40.72 64.05 74.03 71.55 71.04 72.51 73.87 75.28 70.12 56.22 38.62 14.56 

2067 19.69 40.72 64.05 74.02 71.55 71.03 72.54 73.88 75.27 70.12 56.31 38.69 14.56 2068 19.70 40.72 64.05 74.02 71.55 71.03 72.55 73.88 75.28 70.16 56.35 38.76 14.56 

2069 19.70 40.72 64.05 74.02 71.54 71.03 72.55 73.87 75.29 70.22 56.31 38.84 14.57 2070 19.70 40.72 64.05 74.01 71.54 71.03 72.55 73.87 75.31 70.27 56.22 38.98 14.59 

2071 19.70 40.72 64.05 74.01 71.54 71.03 72.54 73.87 75.35 70.30 56.13 39.12 14.59 2072 19.70 40.72 64.05 74.00 71.53 71.03 72.53 73.86 75.38 70.31 56.10 39.23 14.60 

2073 19.70 40.72 64.05 74.00 71.53 71.03 72.53 73.85 75.39 70.31 56.15 39.31 14.63 2074 19.70 40.72 64.05 74.00 71.52 71.03 72.53 73.84 75.38 70.31 56.23 39.31 14.68 

2075 19.70 40.72 64.05 74.00 71.52 71.02 72.53 73.83 75.38 70.33 56.31 39.30 14.72 2076 19.70 40.72 64.05 73.99 71.51 71.02 72.52 73.83 75.36 70.35 56.37 39.30 14.76 

2077 19.70 40.71 64.05 73.99 71.50 71.02 72.52 73.82 75.34 70.36 56.36 39.37 14.82 2078 19.70 40.72 64.05 73.99 71.50 71.01 72.52 73.82 75.33 70.40 56.35 39.56 14.88 

2079 19.70 40.72 64.05 74.00 71.49 71.01 72.52 73.81 75.33 70.47 56.33 39.75 14.91 2080 19.70 40.72 64.05 74.00 71.49 71.00 72.52 73.81 75.34 70.56 56.34 39.90 14.93 

2081 19.70 40.72 64.05 74.00 71.49 71.00 72.51 73.81 75.34 70.59 56.30 40.01 14.94 2082 19.70 40.72 64.05 74.01 71.49 70.99 72.51 73.80 75.33 70.56 56.28 40.07 14.95 

2083 19.70 40.72 64.05 74.01 71.49 70.99 72.51 73.80 75.33 70.53 56.43 40.11 14.95 2084 19.70 40.72 64.05 74.01 71.49 70.98 72.51 73.80 75.34 70.51 56.66 40.14 14.96 

2085 19.70 40.72 64.05 74.02 71.49 70.98 72.50 73.79 75.34 70.52 56.87 40.22 14.97 2086 19.70 40.72 64.05 74.02 71.49 70.97 72.50 73.79 75.35 70.55 56.97 40.31 14.97 

2087 19.70 40.72 64.05 74.02 71.49 70.97 72.50 73.78 75.36 70.58 56.95 40.42 14.96 2088 19.70 40.72 64.05 74.02 71.50 70.96 72.49 73.78 75.36 70.59 56.91 40.57 14.96 

2089 19.70 40.72 64.05 74.02 71.50 70.96 72.49 73.78 75.37 70.59 56.92 40.78 14.95 2090 19.70 40.72 64.05 74.02 71.51 70.96 72.49 73.78 75.38 70.60 56.97 41.03 14.94 

2091 19.70 40.72 64.05 74.02 71.51 70.96 72.49 73.78 75.39 70.62 57.01 41.11 14.91 2092 19.69 40.72 64.05 74.02 71.51 70.96 72.48 73.78 75.40 70.64 57.04 41.02 14.89 

2093 19.69 40.72 64.05 74.02 71.52 70.96 72.48 73.77 75.41 70.65 57.06 40.94 14.91 2094 19.69 40.72 64.05 74.02 71.52 70.97 72.47 73.77 75.42 70.67 57.06 40.94 14.95 

2095 19.69 40.72 64.05 74.02 71.52 70.97 72.47 73.77 75.43 70.68 57.09 41.01 15.01 

Table 2. Ratio of Employment to Civilian Noninstitutional Population, Women, by age group (Cont.)

2021 Trustees Report (intermediate assumptions), percent

Year 16-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70+ 
26

Note: For compactness, the table displays annual values; quarterly values are available on request.

Table 3. Ratio of Employment to Civilian Noninstitutional Population

2021 Trustees Report (intermediate assumptions)

year 16+

16+ age-sexadjusted 1

1 Adjusted to the 2011 age-sex-distribution of the U.S civilian noninstitutional population.

year 16+

16+ age-sexadjusted 1 year 16+16+ age-sexadjusted 1

Historical 2019 60.78 62.81 2057 57.78 63.46

1981 59.01 58.23 2020 56.74 58.92 2058 57.75 63.47

1982 57.78 57.04 Projected 2059 57.72 63.48

1983 57.87 56.98 2021 58.03 60.55 2060 57.69 63.49

1984 59.53 58.36 2022 59.33 62.12 2061 57.65 63.51

1985 60.13 58.88 2023 59.73 62.76 2062 57.63 63.53

1986 60.69 59.35 2024 59.65 62.92 2063 57.60 63.54

1987 61.53 60.15 2025 59.48 62.96 2064 57.56 63.56

1988 62.28 60.86 2026 59.31 62.97 2065 57.53 63.58

1989 62.94 61.46 2027 59.16 62.96 2066 57.49 63.59

1990 62.80 61.11 2028 59.05 62.98 2067 57.46 63.61

1991 61.66 60.00 2029 58.94 63.02 2068 57.43 63.63

1992 61.46 59.77 2030 58.83 63.07 2069 57.39 63.64

1993 61.73 60.01 2031 58.72 63.12 2070 57.35 63.65

1994 62.53 60.80 2032 58.63 63.14 2071 57.31 63.67

1995 62.90 61.20 2033 58.57 63.15 2072 57.27 63.68

1996 63.17 61.52 2034 58.52 63.17 2073 57.23 63.69

1997 63.79 62.18 2035 58.49 63.20 2074 57.20 63.70

1998 64.07 62.50 2036 58.47 63.24 2075 57.17 63.71

1999 64.26 62.75 2037 58.47 63.26 2076 57.14 63.72

2000 64.40 62.97 2038 58.48 63.28 2077 57.11 63.72

2001 63.66 62.29 2039 58.46 63.30 2078 57.09 63.73

2002 62.73 61.47 2040 58.39 63.32 2079 57.08 63.74

2003 62.28 61.14 2041 58.31 63.32 2080 57.08 63.75

2004 62.34 61.27 2042 58.24 63.34 2081 57.08 63.76

2005 62.68 61.70 2043 58.21 63.34 2082 57.09 63.76

2006 63.11 62.25 2044 58.18 63.33 2083 57.10 63.77

2007 62.99 62.27 2045 58.16 63.35 2084 57.12 63.79

2008 62.18 61.69 2046 58.12 63.36 2085 57.15 63.81

2009 59.32 59.00 2047 58.08 63.37 2086 57.18 63.82

2010 58.47 58.29 2048 58.03 63.37 2087 57.21 63.82

2011 58.38 58.38 2049 58.00 63.36 2088 57.25 63.83

2012 58.56 58.94 2050 57.98 63.38 2089 57.28 63.84

2013 58.59 59.17 2051 57.96 63.39 2090 57.32 63.86

2014 59.01 59.82 2052 57.93 63.40 2091 57.35 63.88

2015 59.35 60.35 2053 57.90 63.40 2092 57.39 63.89

2016 59.73 60.95 2054 57.87 63.41 2093 57.41 63.90

2017 60.11 61.63 2055 57.84 63.43 2094 57.44 63.91

2018 60.42 62.18 2056 57.81 63.44 2095 57.45 63.93
27

Table 4. Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates, Men

2021 Trustees report (intermediate assumptions), percent

Year 16-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70+ 

Historical

1981 47.90 70.40 85.48 94.02 95.77 95.84 94.72 93.33 89.53 81.22 58.52 27.79 12.51 

1982 45.42 67.87 84.94 94.09 95.54 95.88 94.69 92.84 89.69 81.89 57.25 26.95 12.23 1983 43.27 68.59 84.72 93.57 94.83 95.55 94.81 93.26 89.03 80.71 56.96 26.10 12.23 

1984 43.56 68.12 85.00 93.60 95.07 95.61 95.07 93.26 88.93 80.21 56.04 24.57 11.38 1985 45.10 68.92 85.01 93.91 95.51 95.30 94.68 93.31 88.59 79.59 55.62 24.44 10.54 

1986 45.29 68.30 85.85 94.18 95.02 95.10 94.35 92.87 88.90 79.06 54.88 25.02 10.42 1987 45.61 67.43 85.24 93.94 95.19 94.86 94.27 92.81 88.37 79.74 54.90 25.79 10.54 

1988 46.10 68.15 85.03 93.73 94.86 94.74 94.20 92.97 88.42 79.34 54.37 25.82 10.92 1989 46.18 69.03 85.22 93.72 95.12 94.66 94.30 92.61 89.25 79.49 54.85 26.15 10.89 

1990 43.48 67.05 84.40 93.74 94.54 94.80 93.88 92.25 88.84 79.91 55.53 26.00 10.73 1991 40.91 65.30 83.54 93.34 93.96 94.37 93.81 92.21 88.40 79.12 54.74 25.09 10.46 

1992 41.01 65.98 83.29 93.13 94.40 94.08 93.23 92.09 88.95 79.01 54.67 25.97 10.68 1993 41.61 65.13 83.21 92.95 93.82 93.69 93.05 91.62 88.08 78.24 54.06 25.42 10.32 

1994 43.86 65.04 83.06 91.92 93.14 92.80 92.70 90.98 86.71 76.92 52.77 26.78 11.72 1995 44.00 66.30 83.09 92.32 93.58 92.48 92.03 90.69 86.39 77.35 53.14 26.96 11.58 

1996 42.13 65.26 82.49 92.91 93.42 92.75 91.97 90.78 86.91 77.85 54.27 27.51 11.51 1997 41.39 63.93 82.53 92.48 93.42 93.02 92.03 90.81 87.84 78.66 54.48 28.39 11.63 

1998 42.68 64.34 82.00 92.75 93.60 93.02 92.20 90.79 87.28 78.41 55.43 27.97 11.13 1999 41.78 64.26 81.94 92.73 93.78 93.30 92.26 90.33 86.95 78.38 54.83 28.45 11.74 

2000 41.00 64.94 82.64 92.52 94.19 93.23 92.11 90.17 86.79 77.05 54.94 30.33 12.04 2001 38.29 62.59 81.60 91.73 93.71 92.90 92.18 90.21 86.62 77.26 56.61 30.23 12.13 

2002 34.48 60.91 80.68 91.38 93.38 92.69 91.60 90.17 86.54 78.02 57.60 32.24 11.45 2003 32.10 58.17 80.07 90.67 92.95 92.81 91.42 89.22 85.96 77.60 57.16 32.84 12.26 

2004 30.87 58.37 79.56 90.89 92.90 92.71 91.19 89.30 85.39 77.57 57.01 32.59 12.83 2005 30.57 57.88 79.06 90.72 92.69 92.57 91.55 89.31 85.86 77.59 58.02 33.57 13.51 

2006 31.40 58.28 79.63 90.55 92.88 92.93 91.21 89.82 86.10 77.68 58.64 34.40 13.88 2007 29.12 55.31 78.68 91.33 93.10 92.99 91.59 89.82 86.43 77.76 59.21 34.29 14.03 

2008 26.70 55.40 78.74 90.28 92.96 92.75 91.81 89.70 86.20 78.81 59.93 35.58 14.60 2009 24.23 51.89 76.27 88.96 91.85 92.56 90.95 88.76 86.13 78.08 60.89 36.27 14.80 

2010 21.86 49.58 74.52 88.34 91.05 92.22 90.71 88.50 85.11 78.48 60.04 36.51 14.69 

2011 20.43 48.34 74.71 87.81 90.65 91.54 90.43 88.09 84.24 78.23 59.14 37.42 15.38 

2012 20.88 48.39 74.47 88.36 90.65 91.34 90.10 88.11 84.10 77.99 60.55 37.11 16.21 2013 21.72 48.30 73.88 87.64 90.73 90.86 90.62 87.27 83.95 78.01 60.47 37.23 15.90 

2014 21.27 47.39 73.92 86.95 90.40 90.88 90.14 87.51 83.72 76.76 61.92 36.10 15.68 2015 22.12 48.27 73.01 87.38 90.30 90.33 90.26 87.85 84.00 77.07 61.49 36.77 15.80 

2016 22.80 49.60 73.00 87.29 90.36 90.78 90.48 88.22 84.49 77.37 61.98 36.91 16.51 2017 23.05 48.19 74.10 87.46 90.22 90.90 90.51 88.29 84.62 78.04 62.38 37.27 16.51 

2018 22.15 48.04 73.19 87.77 90.57 91.05 90.78 88.66 85.28 78.89 62.98 37.57 16.85 2019 23.06 48.20 73.97 87.81 90.47 91.12 90.52 88.91 85.95 78.97 63.62 39.41 17.09 

2020 22.14 47.45 70.98 85.58 88.74 90.66 88.65 88.67 85.03 78.05 63.17 38.64 16.34 
28

Projected

2021 24.26 48.55 72.88 87.00 90.03 90.40 90.49 88.69 84.20 77.74 60.01 36.12 16.39 2022 25.03 48.56 73.65 88.31 90.90 90.79 91.19 89.46 85.43 78.51 62.07 38.98 17.60 

2023 24.94 48.68 73.83 88.58 91.09 91.02 91.25 89.61 86.02 79.02 63.81 40.93 18.00 2024 24.38 48.45 73.77 88.64 91.15 91.11 91.22 89.59 86.23 79.17 64.16 41.20 17.97 

2025 23.60 48.06 73.64 88.62 91.13 91.10 91.17 89.50 86.25 79.24 64.25 41.61 17.88 2026 22.67 47.60 73.49 88.60 91.10 91.06 91.13 89.41 86.24 79.30 64.34 41.91 17.68 

2027 22.01 47.23 73.39 88.59 91.06 91.02 91.11 89.32 86.20 79.27 64.36 42.15 17.50 2028 22.01 47.18 73.37 88.58 91.02 90.99 91.11 89.24 86.15 79.22 64.40 42.43 17.35 

2029 22.01 47.18 73.39 88.57 91.00 90.98 91.08 89.17 86.11 79.15 64.53 42.68 17.18 2030 22.01 47.18 73.39 88.53 90.96 91.00 91.11 89.14 86.05 79.16 64.69 42.75 17.03 

2031 22.01 47.18 73.40 88.50 90.94 91.01 91.12 89.14 85.96 79.23 64.78 42.84 16.90 2032 22.01 47.18 73.41 88.50 90.95 91.02 91.08 89.15 85.88 79.26 64.62 42.94 16.78 

2033 22.01 47.18 73.42 88.50 90.95 91.02 91.07 89.18 85.81 79.25 64.41 42.97 16.64 2034 22.01 47.18 73.43 88.51 90.95 91.01 91.07 89.21 85.75 79.19 64.18 43.04 16.51 

2035 22.01 47.18 73.44 88.53 90.95 91.00 91.08 89.21 85.73 79.19 64.21 43.18 16.35 2036 22.01 47.18 73.44 88.56 90.95 90.99 91.11 89.18 85.76 79.14 64.23 43.27 16.20 

2037 22.01 47.18 73.45 88.59 90.94 90.99 91.13 89.15 85.80 79.12 64.36 43.15 16.07 2038 22.01 47.18 73.46 88.62 90.95 90.98 91.14 89.13 85.85 79.13 64.28 43.05 15.97 

2039 22.01 47.18 73.46 88.64 90.96 90.98 91.14 89.15 85.88 79.19 64.25 42.88 15.93 2040 22.01 47.18 73.47 88.64 90.99 90.97 91.12 89.17 85.85 79.22 64.32 42.86 15.95 

2041 22.01 47.18 73.47 88.64 91.02 90.97 91.09 89.19 85.80 79.21 64.38 42.75 16.01 2042 22.01 47.18 73.48 88.64 91.05 90.96 91.07 89.20 85.75 79.27 64.48 42.74 15.98 

2043 22.01 47.18 73.47 88.64 91.08 90.95 91.07 89.19 85.70 79.35 64.58 42.66 15.95 2044 22.01 47.18 73.46 88.65 91.09 90.95 91.06 89.17 85.69 79.34 64.61 42.55 15.88 

2045 22.01 47.18 73.45 88.65 91.09 90.97 91.06 89.15 85.70 79.37 64.65 42.66 15.86 2046 22.01 47.18 73.45 88.67 91.09 91.00 91.06 89.13 85.73 79.42 64.70 42.85 15.82 

2047 22.01 47.18 73.46 88.68 91.08 91.03 91.05 89.12 85.75 79.45 64.81 42.94 15.84 2048 22.01 47.18 73.47 88.68 91.08 91.06 91.03 89.11 85.75 79.45 64.80 43.03 15.87 

2049 22.01 47.18 73.47 88.67 91.09 91.07 91.02 89.11 85.73 79.43 64.82 43.26 15.92 2050 22.01 47.18 73.47 88.65 91.09 91.07 91.03 89.11 85.71 79.40 64.94 43.43 16.03 

2051 22.01 47.18 73.47 88.64 91.12 91.06 91.05 89.10 85.69 79.37 65.13 43.30 16.16 2052 22.01 47.18 73.47 88.64 91.15 91.05 91.08 89.08 85.67 79.34 65.29 43.35 16.28 

2053 22.01 47.18 73.47 88.64 91.15 91.04 91.12 89.05 85.66 79.32 65.36 43.45 16.37 2054 22.01 47.18 73.47 88.65 91.15 91.05 91.13 89.04 85.66 79.31 65.35 43.45 16.44 

2055 22.01 47.18 73.48 88.65 91.13 91.07 91.13 89.04 85.65 79.31 65.30 43.59 16.54 2056 22.01 47.18 73.48 88.65 91.11 91.11 91.13 89.05 85.65 79.30 65.22 43.82 16.58 

2057 22.01 47.18 73.48 88.65 91.10 91.15 91.12 89.09 85.61 79.28 65.17 44.04 16.61 2058 22.01 47.18 73.48 88.65 91.10 91.17 91.11 89.13 85.57 79.28 65.18 44.15 16.66 

2059 22.01 47.18 73.48 88.65 91.10 91.18 91.12 89.16 85.55 79.29 65.24 44.16 16.75 2060 22.01 47.18 73.48 88.65 91.10 91.16 91.15 89.16 85.53 79.31 65.31 44.14 16.83 

2061 22.01 47.18 73.48 88.65 91.10 91.13 91.21 89.15 85.54 79.35 65.36 44.09 16.91 2062 22.01 47.18 73.48 88.65 91.10 91.11 91.27 89.14 85.58 79.41 65.37 44.08 16.97 

Table 4. Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates, Men (Cont.)

2021 Trustees report (intermediate assumptions), percent

Year 16-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70+ 
29

Note: For compactness, the table displays annual values. Annual values are averages of the quarterly values. Quarterly values are available on request.

2063 22.01 47.18 73.49 88.65 91.10 91.10 91.30 89.14 85.62 79.45 65.41 44.14 16.98 2064 22.01 47.18 73.49 88.65 91.10 91.10 91.31 89.16 85.64 79.48 65.47 44.22 16.95 

2065 22.01 47.18 73.49 88.65 91.10 91.10 91.30 89.20 85.65 79.49 65.55 44.33 16.90 2066 22.01 47.18 73.49 88.65 91.10 91.10 91.27 89.27 85.64 79.48 65.67 44.42 16.86 

2067 22.01 47.18 73.49 88.65 91.09 91.10 91.24 89.34 85.63 79.46 65.84 44.46 16.85 2068 22.01 47.18 73.49 88.65 91.09 91.09 91.22 89.39 85.63 79.47 66.01 44.54 16.84 

2069 22.01 47.18 73.49 88.65 91.09 91.09 91.22 89.40 85.64 79.48 66.12 44.65 16.83 2070 22.01 47.18 73.49 88.65 91.09 91.08 91.22 89.38 85.68 79.50 66.14 44.76 16.84 

2071 22.01 47.18 73.49 88.65 91.09 91.08 91.22 89.34 85.76 79.53 66.13 44.94 16.85 2072 22.01 47.18 73.49 88.65 91.08 91.07 91.22 89.30 85.85 79.53 66.10 45.19 16.85 

2073 22.01 47.18 73.49 88.65 91.08 91.07 91.21 89.29 85.90 79.54 66.09 45.42 16.86 2074 22.01 47.18 73.49 88.65 91.08 91.06 91.21 89.28 85.91 79.52 66.13 45.58 16.87 

2075 22.01 47.18 73.49 88.65 91.08 91.06 91.21 89.28 85.89 79.50 66.21 45.66 16.90 2076 22.01 47.18 73.49 88.65 91.08 91.05 91.20 89.28 85.85 79.45 66.30 45.68 16.94 

2077 22.01 47.18 73.49 88.65 91.08 91.05 91.20 89.28 85.80 79.41 66.34 45.66 16.99 2078 22.01 47.18 73.49 88.65 91.08 91.05 91.19 89.27 85.78 79.41 66.36 45.68 17.03 

2079 22.01 47.18 73.48 88.65 91.09 91.04 91.18 89.26 85.76 79.42 66.33 45.77 17.05 2080 22.01 47.18 73.48 88.65 91.09 91.04 91.18 89.26 85.75 79.46 66.27 45.89 17.02 

2081 22.01 47.18 73.48 88.65 91.09 91.04 91.17 89.25 85.75 79.51 66.12 46.02 16.96 2082 22.01 47.18 73.49 88.65 91.09 91.04 91.17 89.24 85.75 79.54 65.95 46.11 16.90 

2083 22.01 47.18 73.49 88.65 91.09 91.05 91.17 89.23 85.74 79.55 65.93 46.14 16.87 2084 22.01 47.18 73.49 88.65 91.09 91.05 91.17 89.22 85.73 79.55 66.00 46.12 16.85 

2085 22.01 47.18 73.49 88.65 91.09 91.05 91.17 89.22 85.72 79.55 66.14 46.08 16.86 2086 22.01 47.18 73.49 88.65 91.09 91.05 91.17 89.21 85.71 79.55 66.32 45.92 16.86 

2087 22.01 47.18 73.49 88.65 91.09 91.05 91.18 89.21 85.70 79.56 66.46 45.76 16.84 2088 22.01 47.18 73.49 88.65 91.09 91.06 91.18 89.21 85.69 79.58 66.52 45.76 16.82 

2089 22.01 47.18 73.49 88.65 91.09 91.06 91.18 89.21 85.68 79.59 66.55 45.87 16.79 2090 22.01 47.18 73.49 88.64 91.09 91.06 91.19 89.21 85.67 79.60 66.58 46.11 16.76 

2091 22.01 47.18 73.49 88.64 91.09 91.06 91.20 89.21 85.66 79.62 66.62 46.37 16.71 2092 22.01 47.18 73.49 88.64 91.08 91.06 91.20 89.22 85.65 79.64 66.67 46.56 16.68 

2093 22.01 47.18 73.49 88.64 91.08 91.06 91.21 89.22 85.65 79.65 66.74 46.66 16.70 2094 22.01 47.18 73.50 88.65 91.08 91.06 91.22 89.23 85.65 79.65 66.80 46.74 16.78 

2095 22.01 47.18 73.50 88.65 91.08 91.06 91.22 89.24 85.65 79.67 66.86 46.81 16.91 

Table 4. Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates, Men (Cont.)

2021 Trustees report (intermediate assumptions), percent

Year 16-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70+ 
30Table 5. Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates, Women

2021 Trustees report (intermediate assumptions), percent

Year 16-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70+ 

Historical

1981 42.47 60.90 69.62 67.56 65.85 66.36 67.41 64.22 58.14 49.28 32.60 14.86 4.61 

1982 41.04 61.19 69.83 68.99 66.85 67.44 68.62 65.28 58.04 49.63 33.37 14.90 4.49 1983 39.96 60.73 69.90 69.81 68.03 68.23 69.28 65.35 58.51 48.78 33.83 14.74 4.55 

1984 41.19 61.80 70.44 70.39 69.08 70.19 70.07 66.25 59.38 49.84 33.39 14.17 4.42 1985 42.09 61.76 71.85 71.37 70.31 71.69 71.86 67.78 60.83 50.32 33.44 13.50 4.29 

1986 43.69 62.28 72.41 72.31 70.91 73.04 73.21 69.53 62.03 51.34 33.21 14.33 4.13 1987 44.56 62.26 73.03 73.26 71.52 73.98 75.14 70.64 63.17 52.17 33.18 14.30 4.12 

1988 44.03 62.93 72.74 73.57 71.88 74.55 75.88 72.53 64.81 53.29 33.84 15.39 4.37 1989 44.46 62.49 72.41 73.94 73.07 75.00 77.15 74.33 65.91 54.79 35.62 16.34 4.55 

1990 41.64 60.26 71.32 73.59 73.33 75.47 77.47 74.73 66.88 55.29 35.50 16.98 4.74 1991 39.85 59.45 70.11 73.20 72.96 75.56 77.63 75.37 67.78 55.67 35.05 16.95 4.74 

1992 39.08 58.77 70.91 74.12 73.65 75.54 78.06 75.76 68.67 56.77 36.42 16.22 4.83 1993 39.10 60.19 70.93 73.55 73.27 75.34 77.95 76.42 69.80 57.09 37.00 16.08 4.75 

1994 42.64 60.07 71.05 74.33 73.68 75.98 78.31 77.64 70.66 59.18 37.81 17.95 5.49 1995 43.10 61.55 70.34 74.84 75.01 76.34 78.12 77.24 70.74 59.49 38.01 17.55 5.29 

1996 42.95 59.95 71.32 75.83 74.68 76.55 78.62 78.04 71.86 59.80 38.15 17.18 5.18 1997 41.00 61.21 72.70 77.32 74.87 76.65 78.92 78.09 73.50 60.73 39.51 17.60 5.08 

1998 41.92 62.60 73.00 77.31 75.38 75.60 78.61 78.81 73.00 61.28 39.13 17.84 5.17 1999 41.04 60.91 73.25 76.91 75.90 76.22 78.24 78.94 74.02 61.83 38.82 18.39 5.50 

2000 40.88 61.31 73.05 76.74 75.49 75.72 78.72 79.13 74.15 61.37 40.22 19.52 5.76 2001 38.82 59.15 72.77 75.76 75.35 76.10 78.08 78.46 74.13 61.70 42.48 19.99 5.86 

2002 36.35 58.52 72.12 75.66 74.62 75.29 77.52 77.77 73.98 63.81 44.07 20.75 5.99 2003 34.54 56.29 70.72 74.36 73.84 74.47 77.41 78.56 74.71 65.46 45.33 22.68 6.39 

2004 33.28 55.73 70.44 73.12 74.01 74.45 76.71 78.22 74.48 64.96 45.39 23.34 6.74 2005 33.88 55.95 70.06 73.98 73.87 74.61 76.78 77.70 74.04 65.62 45.80 23.74 7.08 

2006 33.46 55.81 69.44 75.21 73.56 74.54 77.09 77.20 74.71 66.71 46.95 24.21 7.09 2007 31.01 54.15 70.16 74.86 74.13 73.97 76.96 77.22 74.69 66.65 47.94 25.67 7.65 

2008 29.16 53.00 69.98 75.88 74.44 75.18 77.08 77.22 74.85 67.74 48.71 26.44 8.06 2009 25.58 50.88 69.64 75.23 74.77 74.96 76.77 77.28 74.70 68.45 49.87 26.63 8.34 

2010 23.03 48.56 68.28 75.56 73.76 74.14 76.16 76.85 74.61 68.43 50.72 26.97 8.32 

2011 22.54 47.43 67.77 74.36 73.36 73.69 75.60 76.45 74.31 67.75 50.28 27.35 8.37 

2012 23.04 47.26 67.40 74.40 73.72 73.65 75.83 75.64 73.72 67.31 50.38 27.60 8.47 2013 23.60 47.56 67.53 73.65 73.32 73.77 74.23 75.30 73.03 67.20 49.98 27.60 9.07 

2014 23.10 47.76 67.74 74.14 73.54 73.60 74.64 74.90 72.85 66.39 50.19 27.50 9.25 2015 22.81 47.44 68.30 73.83 72.91 73.58 74.95 74.51 72.45 66.31 49.77 27.92 9.17 

2016 24.50 47.83 67.99 75.37 73.56 74.11 74.98 75.40 72.52 65.94 50.14 28.00 9.34 2017 26.31 47.20 68.52 76.42 74.50 74.29 75.66 75.80 73.18 66.21 51.04 27.93 9.77 

2018 25.73 47.59 68.99 76.90 74.87 74.64 75.58 76.20 73.54 66.14 51.79 28.89 9.89 2019 24.26 48.47 70.37 77.80 75.49 75.31 76.14 77.29 74.10 67.11 51.84 29.82 10.31 

2020 25.37 45.79 67.53 76.75 74.61 74.31 75.70 76.00 73.38 66.56 51.47 28.01 10.18 
31

Projected

2021 25.80 46.24 67.32 76.26 75.09 74.68 75.46 75.61 75.08 66.76 49.54 28.83 10.95 2022 25.38 46.62 68.23 77.29 75.86 75.51 76.41 76.71 76.49 67.60 50.30 30.33 11.94 

2023 25.29 46.92 68.61 77.78 76.05 75.64 76.65 77.00 76.93 68.34 51.53 30.81 12.20 2024 24.82 46.94 68.77 78.00 76.08 75.68 76.73 77.10 77.12 69.43 52.03 30.94 12.35 

2025 24.18 46.86 68.84 78.08 76.00 75.64 76.71 77.09 77.18 70.36 52.35 31.12 12.48 2026 23.40 46.67 68.91 78.12 75.90 75.58 76.64 77.07 77.20 71.11 52.61 31.15 12.59 

2027 22.91 46.50 68.98 78.14 75.78 75.48 76.54 77.07 77.21 71.39 53.08 31.35 12.72 2028 23.01 46.49 69.01 78.15 75.66 75.36 76.44 77.06 77.23 71.51 53.66 31.86 12.71 

2029 23.03 46.48 69.02 78.15 75.55 75.23 76.35 77.02 77.27 71.50 54.80 32.20 12.69 2030 23.06 46.48 69.01 78.14 75.47 75.15 76.35 77.06 77.41 71.57 55.87 32.53 12.70 

2031 23.09 46.47 69.00 78.13 75.40 75.06 76.35 77.09 77.54 71.64 56.68 32.79 12.72 2032 23.11 46.47 69.00 78.14 75.32 74.94 76.32 77.06 77.76 71.73 56.88 33.31 12.68 

2033 23.14 46.48 68.99 78.14 75.25 74.84 76.28 77.04 77.97 71.86 56.86 33.97 12.68 2034 23.16 46.49 69.00 78.11 75.20 74.73 76.22 77.02 78.06 71.95 56.79 34.99 12.70 

2035 23.18 46.48 69.00 78.07 75.13 74.64 76.15 77.01 78.01 72.24 56.90 35.93 12.70 2036 23.19 46.48 69.00 78.02 75.08 74.55 76.09 77.00 77.96 72.64 57.06 36.54 12.68 

2037 23.21 46.48 69.00 77.98 75.06 74.46 76.02 76.98 77.87 73.08 57.26 36.71 12.71 2038 23.22 46.49 68.99 77.94 75.04 74.38 75.94 76.97 77.79 73.44 57.38 36.73 12.77 

2039 23.22 46.49 68.99 77.91 75.00 74.30 75.87 76.95 77.73 73.57 57.52 36.80 12.87 2040 23.22 46.45 68.99 77.89 74.94 74.21 75.80 76.93 77.71 73.38 57.93 37.00 12.99 

2041 23.23 46.44 68.98 77.88 74.89 74.13 75.72 76.89 77.70 73.15 58.36 37.21 13.11 2042 23.23 46.44 68.98 77.86 74.82 74.09 75.65 76.85 77.68 72.89 58.86 37.41 13.19 

2043 23.23 46.46 68.98 77.84 74.76 74.07 75.59 76.80 77.67 72.62 59.14 37.55 13.28 2044 23.23 46.47 68.99 77.82 74.72 74.04 75.53 76.76 77.66 72.41 59.11 37.75 13.36 

2045 23.23 46.47 69.00 77.81 74.71 74.02 75.48 76.71 77.67 72.40 58.86 38.18 13.44 2046 23.23 46.47 69.00 77.77 74.70 73.99 75.44 76.67 77.67 72.43 58.63 38.54 13.48 

2047 23.23 46.46 69.00 77.73 74.69 73.94 75.41 76.63 77.67 72.43 58.34 38.96 13.52 2048 23.23 46.46 68.99 77.74 74.68 73.88 75.40 76.61 77.65 72.41 58.09 39.20 13.60 

2049 23.23 46.46 68.99 77.78 74.66 73.85 75.39 76.59 77.63 72.37 57.92 39.18 13.73 2050 23.23 46.46 68.99 77.81 74.65 73.84 75.39 76.58 77.60 72.35 57.99 39.08 13.90 

2051 23.23 46.46 68.99 77.84 74.61 73.84 75.38 76.57 77.58 72.36 58.04 38.98 14.07 2052 23.23 46.46 68.99 77.86 74.56 73.84 75.36 76.57 77.57 72.39 58.00 38.87 14.22 

2053 23.22 46.46 68.99 77.86 74.56 73.84 75.34 76.56 77.57 72.42 57.88 38.82 14.37 2054 23.22 46.46 68.99 77.86 74.59 73.83 75.32 76.55 77.57 72.43 57.77 38.84 14.49 

2055 23.22 46.46 68.99 77.86 74.62 73.83 75.32 76.54 77.59 72.44 57.72 39.01 14.61 2056 23.22 46.47 68.99 77.85 74.67 73.79 75.32 76.53 77.60 72.44 57.72 39.13 14.71 

2057 23.22 46.47 68.99 77.85 74.71 73.75 75.32 76.53 77.61 72.44 57.76 39.20 14.79 2058 23.22 46.47 68.99 77.85 74.72 73.72 75.32 76.53 77.61 72.44 57.80 39.22 14.86 

2059 23.22 46.47 68.99 77.85 74.72 73.72 75.31 76.53 77.60 72.45 57.84 39.24 14.91 2060 23.22 46.47 68.99 77.84 74.72 73.73 75.32 76.54 77.61 72.47 57.91 39.33 14.97 

2061 23.22 46.47 68.99 77.84 74.71 73.77 75.31 76.53 77.61 72.50 57.93 39.49 15.03 2062 23.22 46.47 68.99 77.84 74.71 73.83 75.28 76.53 77.64 72.54 57.90 39.70 15.09 

Table 5. Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates, Women (Cont.)

2021 Trustees report (intermediate assumptions), percent

Year 16-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70+ 
32

Note: For compactness, the table displays annual values. Annual values are averages of the quarterly values. Quarterly values are available on request.

2063 23.22 46.47 68.99 77.84 74.71 73.86 75.26 76.52 77.68 72.57 57.90 39.88 15.11 2064 23.22 46.47 68.98 77.84 74.71 73.86 75.24 76.51 77.72 72.58 57.93 39.97 15.14 

2065 23.22 46.47 68.98 77.83 74.71 73.86 75.24 76.51 77.74 72.55 57.98 40.03 15.17 2066 23.22 46.47 68.98 77.83 74.70 73.84 75.26 76.51 77.74 72.53 58.04 40.12 15.17 

2067 23.22 46.47 68.98 77.83 74.70 73.84 75.29 76.51 77.74 72.53 58.13 40.19 15.18 2068 23.22 46.47 68.98 77.82 74.70 73.84 75.30 76.51 77.74 72.57 58.18 40.27 15.17 

2069 23.22 46.47 68.98 77.82 74.70 73.84 75.30 76.51 77.75 72.62 58.13 40.36 15.18 2070 23.22 46.47 68.98 77.81 74.69 73.84 75.29 76.51 77.78 72.68 58.04 40.49 15.20 

2071 23.22 46.46 68.98 77.81 74.69 73.84 75.28 76.51 77.81 72.71 57.95 40.64 15.20 2072 23.22 46.46 68.98 77.80 74.68 73.84 75.28 76.50 77.85 72.72 57.91 40.76 15.21 

2073 23.22 46.46 68.98 77.80 74.68 73.84 75.28 76.49 77.86 72.73 57.97 40.84 15.24 2074 23.22 46.46 68.98 77.80 74.67 73.83 75.28 76.48 77.85 72.72 58.05 40.84 15.30 

2075 23.22 46.46 68.98 77.79 74.66 73.83 75.27 76.47 77.85 72.75 58.13 40.83 15.34 2076 23.22 46.46 68.99 77.79 74.66 73.83 75.27 76.46 77.83 72.76 58.19 40.83 15.38 

2077 23.22 46.46 68.99 77.79 74.65 73.83 75.27 76.46 77.81 72.77 58.19 40.90 15.44 2078 23.22 46.46 68.99 77.79 74.65 73.82 75.26 76.46 77.80 72.81 58.18 41.10 15.51 

2079 23.22 46.46 68.99 77.79 74.64 73.81 75.26 76.45 77.80 72.89 58.16 41.30 15.54 2080 23.22 46.46 68.99 77.80 74.64 73.81 75.26 76.45 77.80 72.98 58.17 41.45 15.56 

2081 23.22 46.46 68.99 77.80 74.64 73.80 75.26 76.44 77.80 73.01 58.12 41.57 15.57 2082 23.22 46.46 68.99 77.80 74.63 73.80 75.26 76.44 77.80 72.98 58.10 41.63 15.58 

2083 23.22 46.46 68.99 77.81 74.63 73.79 75.26 76.43 77.80 72.95 58.26 41.67 15.58 2084 23.22 46.46 68.99 77.81 74.63 73.79 75.25 76.43 77.80 72.93 58.50 41.70 15.59 

2085 23.22 46.46 68.99 77.82 74.64 73.78 75.25 76.43 77.81 72.94 58.71 41.79 15.59 2086 23.22 46.46 68.99 77.82 74.64 73.78 75.25 76.42 77.82 72.97 58.81 41.87 15.60 

2087 23.22 46.46 68.99 77.82 74.64 73.78 75.24 76.42 77.83 73.00 58.79 41.99 15.59 2088 23.22 46.46 68.99 77.82 74.65 73.77 75.24 76.42 77.83 73.01 58.75 42.15 15.59 

2089 23.22 46.46 68.99 77.82 74.65 73.77 75.24 76.42 77.84 73.01 58.76 42.36 15.58 2090 23.22 46.46 68.99 77.82 74.66 73.77 75.23 76.42 77.85 73.03 58.81 42.63 15.57 

2091 23.22 46.46 68.99 77.82 74.66 73.77 75.23 76.41 77.86 73.04 58.86 42.71 15.54 2092 23.22 46.47 68.99 77.82 74.66 73.77 75.22 76.41 77.87 73.06 58.89 42.61 15.52 

2093 23.22 46.47 68.98 77.82 74.67 73.77 75.22 76.41 77.88 73.08 58.90 42.54 15.54 2094 23.22 46.47 68.98 77.82 74.67 73.77 75.22 76.41 77.89 73.09 58.91 42.54 15.58 

2095 23.22 46.47 68.98 77.82 74.67 73.77 75.22 76.40 77.90 73.11 58.94 42.61 15.64 

Table 5. Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates, Women (Cont.)

2021 Trustees report (intermediate assumptions), percent

Year 16-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70+ 
33

Note: For compactness, the table displays annual values; quarterly values are available on request. 

Table 6. Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates

2021 Trustees Report (intermediate assumptions), percent

year 16+

16+ age-sexadjusted 1

1 Adjusted to the 2011 age-sex-distribution of the U.S civilian noninstitutional population.

year 16+

16+ age-sexadjusted 1 year 16+16+ age-sexadjusted 1

Historical 2019 63.10 65.22 2057 60.46 66.43

1981 63.88 62.54 2020 61.75 64.15 2058 60.44 66.44

1982 63.99 62.63 Projected 2059 60.40 66.45

1983 64.01 62.57 2021 61.63 64.33 2060 60.37 66.47

1984 64.37 62.81 2022 62.39 65.32 2061 60.33 66.48

1985 64.79 63.20 2023 62.58 65.76 2062 60.30 66.50

1986 65.26 63.58 2024 62.47 65.89 2063 60.27 66.52

1987 65.58 63.93 2025 62.28 65.93 2064 60.24 66.53

1988 65.91 64.26 2026 62.09 65.92 2065 60.20 66.55

1989 66.45 64.77 2027 61.92 65.91 2066 60.16 66.57

1990 66.53 64.62 2028 61.80 65.94 2067 60.13 66.59

1991 66.18 64.27 2029 61.68 65.97 2068 60.09 66.61

1992 66.44 64.53 2030 61.56 66.03 2069 60.04 66.62

1993 66.30 64.41 2031 61.45 66.07 2070 60.00 66.63

1994 66.58 64.71 2032 61.34 66.10 2071 59.96 66.64

1995 66.63 64.80 2033 61.28 66.11 2072 59.92 66.66

1996 66.78 65.01 2034 61.23 66.13 2073 59.88 66.67

1997 67.10 65.39 2035 61.19 66.16 2074 59.84 66.68

1998 67.09 65.43 2036 61.16 66.20 2075 59.81 66.70

1999 67.09 65.50 2037 61.15 66.23 2076 59.78 66.70

2000 67.08 65.59 2038 61.16 66.24 2077 59.76 66.70

2001 66.84 65.38 2039 61.12 66.26 2078 59.74 66.71

2002 66.58 65.22 2040 61.05 66.28 2079 59.73 66.72

2003 66.24 65.02 2041 60.96 66.29 2080 59.72 66.74

2004 65.98 64.84 2042 60.90 66.30 2081 59.72 66.74

2005 66.03 64.99 2043 60.86 66.31 2082 59.73 66.74

2006 66.17 65.26 2044 60.84 66.30 2083 59.75 66.76

2007 66.04 65.28 2045 60.81 66.31 2084 59.77 66.77

2008 66.01 65.48 2046 60.78 66.33 2085 59.80 66.79

2009 65.39 65.04 2047 60.74 66.34 2086 59.83 66.80

2010 64.70 64.50 2048 60.70 66.33 2087 59.87 66.81

2011 64.11 64.11 2049 60.67 66.33 2088 59.90 66.81

2012 63.70 64.12 2050 60.65 66.34 2089 59.94 66.83

2013 63.25 63.89 2051 60.63 66.35 2090 59.97 66.85

2014 62.88 63.76 2052 60.60 66.37 2091 60.01 66.87

2015 62.65 63.73 2053 60.58 66.37 2092 60.05 66.88

2016 62.79 64.08 2054 60.55 66.38 2093 60.07 66.89

2017 62.85 64.45 2055 60.52 66.40 2094 60.10 66.90

2018 62.87 64.72 2056 60.49 66.41 2095 60.11 66.91
34

Note: “--” indicates that the model factor does not apply to the given age-sex group.

Table 7. Labor Force Participation Rates (adjusted for age, sex, marital status, and presence of children, 2011 base): 2021Q2 to 203

(2021 Trustees Report, intermediate assumptions)

2021 Q2

OCACT 

Model

Decomposition of Cumulative OCACT Model Change from 2021Q2 to 2030Q4 (percentage points)

Age-Sex 

Group1

1 Classified by sex and age span of target group. In this classification, “M” represents men, “F” represents women, “1617” represents ages 16 and 17, “2024” represents a

“70+”represents ages 70 and over, “16+”represents ages 16 and over, etc.

Regression Factors

Components

Business 

Cycle

Disability 

Prevalence Education

Replacement 

Rate

Earnings 

Test

Lagged 

Cohort (75+) Time Trend Subtotal

Life Expectancy Tota

(b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h) (i) (j) (k) (l) 

sum (c:i) (j+k

16+ 63.93 0.62 -0.05 0.34 0.08 -0.01 0.08 0.00 1.05 0.25 1.3

M16+ 69.92 0.47 0.03 -0.11 0.08 -0.01 -0.04 0.00 0.43 0.29 0.7

M1617 24.05 -2.03 -0.00 -- -- -- -- 0.00 -2.04 -- -2.0M1819 47.31 -0.13 -0.00 -- -- -- -- 0.00 -0.13 -- -0.1

M2024 73.25 0.95 -0.07 -- -- -- -- 0.00 0.88 -- 0.8M2529 87.99 1.46 -0.23 -- -- -- -- 0.00 1.23 -- 1.2

M3034 90.86 0.83 -0.18 -- -- -- -- -- 0.65 -- 0.6M3539 91.00 0.65 0.09 -- -- -- -- -- 0.73 -- 0.7

M4044 91.29 0.25 0.08 -- -- -- -- -- 0.32 0.04 0.3M4549 88.81 0.63 -0.29 -- -- -- -- -- 0.35 0.08 0.4

M5054 84.49 1.42 -0.16 -- -- -- -- -- 1.26 0.20 1.4M5559 77.04 -- 0.31 -0.02 -- -- -- -- 0.30 0.66 0.9

M6064 55.39 -- 0.52 0.57 0.31 0.00 -- -- 1.40 1.35 2.7M6569 30.01 -- 0.41 -0.80 1.15 -0.12 -- -- 0.64 1.28 1.9

M70+ 15.97 -- 0.17 -1.08 -- -- -0.43 -- -1.34 0.46 -0.8

F16+ 58.27 0.75 -0.13 0.77 0.07 -0.01 0.19 0.00 1.64 0.22 1.8

F1617 24.28 -2.38 -0.00 -- -- -- -- 0.00 -2.38 -- -2.3F1819 44.18 0.15 -0.00 -- -- -- -- 0.00 0.15 -- 0.1

F2024 65.97 2.09 -0.05 -- -- -- -- 0.00 2.04 -- 2.0F2529 73.67 1.73 -0.15 -- -- -- -- 0.00 1.59 -- 1.5

F3034 74.64 0.50 -0.16 -- -- -- -- -- 0.34 -- 0.3F3539 75.39 0.59 -0.01 -- -- -- -- -- 0.58 -- 0.5

F4044 75.70 1.21 0.05 -- -- -- -- -- 1.25 0.00 1.2F4549 75.40 1.96 -0.08 -- -- -- -- -- 1.87 0.00 1.8

F5054 75.58 1.49 -0.29 0.55 -- -- -- -- 1.75 0.12 1.8F5559 67.12 -- -0.40 4.39 -- -- -- -- 3.99 0.46 4.4

F6064 48.91 -- -0.40 4.79 0.26 -- -- -- 4.66 1.07 5.7F6569 28.78 -- 0.03 0.11 0.97 -0.12 -- -- 0.99 0.94 1.9

F70+ 10.17 -- -0.07 0.02 -- -- 1.49 -- 1.43 0.29 1.7
35

Note: “--” indicates that the model factor does not apply to the given age-sex group.

Table 8. Labor Force Participation Rates (adjusted for age, sex, marital status, and presence of children, 2011 base): 2030Q4 to 209

(2021 Trustees Report, intermediate assumptions)

2030 Q4

OCACT 

Model

Decomposition of Cumulative OCACT Model Change from 2030Q4 to 2095Q4 (percentage points)

Age-Sex 

Group1

1 Classified by sex and age span of target group. In this classification, “M” represents men, “F” represents women, “1617” represents ages 16 and 17, “2024” represents a

“70+”represents ages 70 and over, “16+”represents ages 16 and over, etc.

Regression Factors

Components

Business 

Cycle

Disability 

Prevalence Education

Replacement 

Rate

Earnings 

Test

Lagged 

Cohort (75+) Time Trend Subtotal

Life Expectancy Tota

(b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h) (i) (j) (k) (l) 

sum (c:i) (j+k

16+ 65.89 0.00 -0.45 0.26 -0.02 0.00 0.09 0.00 -0.11 1.24 1.1

M16+ 71.63 0.00 -0.47 0.12 -0.02 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.40 1.34 0.9

M1617 22.01 0.00 0.00 -- -- -- -- 0.00 0.00 -- 0.0M1819 47.18 0.00 -0.00 -- -- -- -- 0.00 -0.00 -- -0.0

M2024 74.13 0.00 -0.01 -- -- -- -- 0.00 -0.01 -- -0.0M2529 89.23 0.00 -0.04 -- -- -- -- 0.00 -0.04 -- -0.0

M3034 91.51 0.00 -0.13 -- -- -- -- -- -0.13 -- -0.1M3539 91.73 0.00 -0.36 -- -- -- -- -- -0.36 -- -0.3

M4044 91.74 0.00 -0.54 -- -- -- -- -- -0.54 0.21 -0.3M4549 89.42 0.00 -0.64 -- -- -- -- -- -0.64 0.41 -0.2

M5054 86.31 0.00 -1.10 -- -- -- -- -- -1.10 0.55 -0.5M5559 79.41 -- -1.39 0.02 -- -- -- -- -1.38 2.12 0.7

M6064 62.70 -- -0.93 0.07 -0.06 0.00 -- -- -0.92 5.31 4.3M6569 37.66 -- -0.37 1.11 -0.23 0.00 -- -- 0.51 7.17 7.6

M70+ 17.17 -- -0.19 0.55 -- -- -0.30 -- 0.05 3.18 3.2

F16+ 60.48 0.00 -0.43 0.40 -0.02 0.00 0.21 0.00 0.16 1.15 1.3

F1617 21.90 0.00 0.00 -- -- -- -- 0.00 0.00 -- 0.0F1819 44.33 0.00 -0.00 -- -- -- -- 0.00 -0.00 -- -0.0

F2024 68.01 0.00 0.00 -- -- -- -- 0.00 0.00 -- 0.0F2529 75.26 0.00 -0.03 -- -- -- -- 0.00 -0.03 -- -0.0

F3034 74.97 0.00 -0.10 -- -- -- -- -- -0.10 -- -0.1F3539 75.96 0.00 -0.31 -- -- -- -- -- -0.31 -- -0.3

F4044 76.95 0.00 -0.53 -- -- -- -- -- -0.53 0.00 -0.5F4549 77.27 0.00 -0.66 -- -- -- -- -- -0.66 0.00 -0.6

F5054 77.59 0.00 -0.64 -0.17 -- -- -- -- -0.81 0.77 -0.0F5559 72.02 -- -0.81 0.08 -- -- -- -- -0.73 2.09 1.3

F6064 56.94 -- -0.75 1.11 -0.05 -- -- -- 0.31 4.29 4.6F6569 32.49 -- -1.26 3.90 -0.20 0.00 -- -- 2.44 5.98 8.4

F70+ 12.16 -- -0.32 0.90 -- -- 1.61 -- 2.19 2.13 4.3
36

Note: “--” indicates that the model factor does not apply to the given age-sex group.

Table 9. Labor Force Participation Rates: 2021Q2 to 2030Q4

(2021 Trustees Report, intermediate assumptions)

2021 Q2

OCACT 

Model

Decomposition of Cumulative OCACT Model Change from 2021Q2 to 2030Q4 (percentage points) 

Age-Sex 

Group1

1 Classified by sex and age span of target group. In this classification, “M” represents men, “F” represents women, “1617” represents ages 16 and 17, “2024” represents a

“70+”represents ages 70 and over, “16+”represents ages 16 and over, etc.

Regression Factors

Components

Age Gender

Marital 

Status

Child 

Presence

Demographic 

Total

Business 

Cycle

Disability 

Prevalence Education

Replacement

Rate

Earnings 

Test

Lagged 

Cohort 

(75+)

Time 

Trend Subtotal

Life 

Expectancy 

(b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h) (i) (j) (k) (l) (m) (n) (o) (p) 

sum(c:f) sum (g:n) 

16+ 61.52 -1.96 0.00 -0.08 -0.01 -2.05 0.55 -0.04 0.25 0.09 -0.01 0.12 0.00 -1.08 0.28 

M16+ 67.34 -2.00 -- -0.16 -- -2.16 0.43 0.05 -0.20 0.10 -0.01 -0.07 0.00 -1.86 0.33 

M1617 24.05 -- -- -- -- 0.00 -2.03 -0.00 -- -- -- -- 0.00 -2.04 -- M1819 47.31 -- -- -- -- 0.00 -0.13 -0.00 -- -- -- -- 0.00 -0.13 -- 

M2024 72.69 -- -- -0.18 -- -0.18 0.95 -0.07 -- -- -- -- 0.00 0.70 -- M2529 87.37 -- -- -0.10 -- -0.10 1.46 -0.22 -- -- -- -- 0.00 1.13 -- 

M3034 90.32 -- -- -0.03 -- -0.03 0.83 -0.18 -- -- -- -- -- 0.62 -- M3539 90.41 -- -- -0.14 -- -0.14 0.65 0.09 -- -- -- -- -- 0.60 -- 

M4044 90.92 -- -- -0.24 -- -0.24 0.25 0.08 -- -- -- -- -- 0.08 0.04 M4549 88.79 -- -- -0.25 -- -0.25 0.63 -0.29 -- -- -- -- -- 0.10 0.08 

M5054 84.26 -- -- -0.06 -- -0.06 1.42 -0.16 -- -- -- -- -- 1.19 0.20 M5559 77.38 -0.02 -- -0.57 -- -0.59 0.00 0.31 -0.01 -- -- -- -- -0.29 0.67 

M6064 58.42 0.05 -- -1.01 -- -0.97 0.00 0.52 0.57 0.31 0.00 -- -- 0.43 1.35 M6569 34.70 -0.18 -- 0.72 -- 0.54 0.00 0.41 -0.87 1.15 -0.11 -- -- 1.12 1.26 

M70+ 16.34 -0.62 -- -0.10 -- -0.72 0.00 0.17 -1.10 -- -- -0.43 -- -2.07 0.47 

F16+ 56.06 -1.92 -- -0.01 -0.02 -1.95 0.67 -0.12 0.68 0.09 -0.01 0.29 0.00 -0.35 0.24 

F1617 24.98 -- -- -- 0.48 0.48 -2.38 -0.00 -- -- -- -- 0.00 -1.91 -- F1819 45.55 -- -- -- 0.78 0.78 0.15 -0.00 -- -- -- -- 0.00 0.93 -- 

F2024 66.78 -- -- 0.04 0.15 0.18 2.09 -0.05 -- -- -- -- 0.00 2.23 -- F2529 76.15 -- -- 0.21 0.19 0.40 1.73 -0.15 -- -- -- -- 0.00 1.98 -- 

F3034 75.41 -- -- 0.02 -0.31 -0.30 0.50 -0.16 -- -- -- -- -- 0.04 -- F3539 75.07 -- -- -0.11 -0.41 -0.52 0.59 -0.01 -- -- -- -- -- 0.06 -- 

F4044 75.51 -- -- -0.12 -0.28 -0.40 1.21 0.05 -- -- -- -- -- 0.85 0.00 F4549 75.34 -- -- -0.12 -- -0.12 1.96 -0.08 -- -- -- -- -- 1.75 0.00 

F5054 75.50 -- -- -0.07 -- -0.07 1.49 -0.29 0.55 -- -- -- -- 1.68 0.12 F5559 66.70 -0.03 -- 0.01 -- -0.02 0.00 -0.40 4.39 -- -- -- -- 3.97 0.47 

F6064 48.72 0.06 -- -0.56 -- -0.50 0.00 -0.40 4.83 0.26 0.00 -- -- 4.19 1.07 F6569 28.88 -0.23 -- 0.23 -- -0.00 0.00 0.02 0.08 0.97 -0.11 -- -- 0.96 0.94 

F70+ 10.98 -0.44 -- 0.12 -- -0.32 0.00 -0.08 0.03 -- -- 1.52 -- 1.15 0.30 
37

Note: “--” indicates that the model factor does not apply to the given age-sex group.

Table 10. Labor Force Participation Rates (unadjusted): 2030Q4 to 2095Q4

(2021 Trustees Report, intermediate assumptions)

2021 Q2

OCACT 

Model

Decomposition of Cumulative OCACT Model Change from 2030Q4 to 2095Q4 (percentage points)

Age-Sex 

Group1

1 Classified by sex and age span of target group. In this classification, “M” represents men, “F” represents women, “1617” represents ages 16 and 17, “2024” represents a

“70+”represents ages 70 and over, “16+”represents ages 16 and over, etc.

Regression Factors

Components

Age Gender

Marital 

Status

Child 

Presence

Demographic 

Total

Business 

Cycle

Disability 

Prevalence Education

Replacement

Rate

Earnings 

Test

Lagged 

Cohort 

(75+)

Time 

Trend Subtotal

Life 

Expectancy 

(b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h) (i) (j) (k) (l) (m) (n) (o) (p) 

sum(c:f) sum (g:n) 

16+ 61.52 -2.82 0.10 -0.10 -0.04 -2.86 -0.04 -0.41 0.33 -0.02 0.00 0.19 0.00 -2.81 1.43 

M16+ 67.01 -3.37 -- -0.24 -- -3.61 -0.03 -0.42 0.19 -0.03 0.00 -0.07 0.00 -3.97 1.59 

M1617 22.01 -- -- -- -- 0.00 0.00 0.00 -- -- -- -- 0.00 0.00 -- M1819 47.18 -- -- -- -- 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -- -- -- -- 0.00 -0.00 -- 

M2024 73.39 -- -- 0.11 -- 0.11 0.00 -0.01 -- -- -- -- 0.00 0.10 -- M2529 88.51 -- -- 0.18 -- 0.18 0.00 -0.04 -- -- -- -- 0.00 0.14 -- 

M3034 90.94 -- -- 0.26 -- 0.26 0.00 -0.13 -- -- -- -- -- 0.13 -- M3539 91.01 -- -- 0.41 -- 0.41 0.00 -0.35 -- -- -- -- -- 0.05 -- 

M4044 91.13 -- -- 0.42 -- 0.42 0.00 -0.54 -- -- -- -- -- -0.12 0.21 M4549 89.14 -- -- 0.34 -- 0.34 0.00 -0.64 -- -- -- -- -- -0.31 0.41 

M5054 86.01 -- -- 0.18 -- 0.18 0.00 -1.09 -- -- -- -- -- -0.92 0.55 M5559 79.20 0.08 -- -0.36 -- -0.27 0.00 -1.39 0.01 -- -- -- -- -1.65 2.13 

M6064 64.76 -0.13 -- -2.17 -- -2.30 0.00 -0.93 0.07 -0.05 0.00 -- -- -3.20 5.32 M6569 42.78 0.08 -- -3.72 -- -3.65 0.00 -0.36 1.13 -0.23 -0.00 -- -- -3.11 7.16 

M70+ 16.96 -2.50 -- 0.15 -- -2.35 0.00 -0.19 0.72 -- -- -0.25 -- -2.07 2.47 

F16+ 56.37 -2.29 -- 0.04 -0.08 -2.32 -0.04 -0.41 0.49 -0.02 0.00 0.44 0.00 -1.86 1.28 

F1617 23.07 -- -- -- 0.14 0.14 0.00 0.00 -- -- -- -- 0.00 0.14 -- F1819 46.47 -- -- -- -0.01 -0.01 0.00 -0.00 -- -- -- -- 0.00 -0.01 -- 

F2024 69.00 -- -- -0.03 0.01 -0.02 0.00 0.00 -- -- -- -- 0.00 -0.02 -- F2529 78.14 -- -- -0.38 0.09 -0.29 0.00 -0.03 -- -- -- -- 0.00 -0.32 -- 

F3034 75.45 -- -- -0.47 -0.20 -0.68 0.00 -0.10 -- -- -- -- -- -0.78 -- F3539 75.12 -- -- -0.40 -0.64 -1.04 0.00 -0.31 -- -- -- -- -- -1.35 -- 

F4044 76.36 -- -- -0.20 -0.43 -0.62 0.00 -0.52 -- -- -- -- -- -1.15 0.00 F4549 77.09 -- -- -0.04 -- -0.04 0.00 -0.65 -- -- -- -- -- -0.69 0.00 

F5054 77.45 -- -- 0.26 -- 0.26 0.00 -0.65 -0.13 -- -- -- -- -0.52 0.77 F5559 71.62 0.12 -- 0.08 -- 0.20 0.00 -0.82 0.11 -- -- -- -- -0.52 2.11 

F6064 56.27 -0.10 -- -1.80 -- -1.90 0.00 -0.76 1.10 -0.05 0.00 -- -- -1.60 4.29 F6569 32.56 0.13 -- 1.75 -- 1.87 0.00 -1.26 3.89 -0.20 -0.00 -- -- 4.30 5.97 

F70+ 12.73 -1.65 -- 0.60 -- -1.05 0.00 -0.22 0.68 -- -- 1.70 -- 1.12 1.72 
38
39

APPENDIX 2: 

OCACT’S LABOR FORCE MODEL
40

OCACT’s Labor Force Model

OCACT’s labor force model projects labor force participation rates based on 153 separate age-sex-specific LFPR equations: 69 equations for men and 84 for women. For men and women, there are 55 age groups, as follows: 16-17, 18-19,

20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55, 56, ... 99, and 100+. 

For the 7 age groups encompassing ages 20 through 54, the equations are further disaggregated by marital status. Marital status categories include: never married, ever married with spouse present, and ever married with spouse absent

(which includes separated, widowed, and divorced). This adds 14 equations for men and 14 equations for women. 

The equations for ages 55 and older, for both men and women, are not disaggregated by marital status. Instead, the

effect of marital status on labor force participation at these ages is captured by a special variable in the equations: the

proportion of those in a given age group who are married with spouse present. The coefficient on this variable, for men

and women of every age between 55 and 74, is estimated from the historical data via regression.

Finally, for the five age groups of women encompassing ages 20 through 44, and for each marital status category within

these age groups, we include separate equations for the presence of children under the age of 6. Here there are two categories: (any number of) children under 6 present, and no children under 6. This adds another 15 equations for women. 

A detailed listing of the 69 equations for men and 84 equations for women can be found in tables A1 and A2, respectively, of this appendix.

Projections are made for each age-sex group separately. The aggregate LFPRs are calculated based on the projected

demographic proportions of each of the age-sex groups in the aggregate population.

In general, in addition to age, sex, marital status, and the presence of children, LFPRs are assumed to be influenced by: 

• The state of the economy: a more robust economy is expected to boost LFPRs, as people are more likely to enter

the labor force when prospects for employment are better. The state of the economy is captured by the unemployment rate specific to each age-sex group. 

• Additional demographic variables: 

• Disability prevalence: higher disability prevalence is expected to lower LFPRs.

• Educational attainment: higher educational attainment tends to increase LFPRs.

• Variables that are likely to affect the timing of the retirement decision, and thus LFPRs of people close to retirement age:

• Replacement rate associated with Social Security benefits: as Social Security’s normal (full) retirement

age increases to age 67, the age-specific Social Security benefit replacement rate will decline due to the

additional reduction for early retirement for those retiring prior to normal retirement age. These

decreases in age-specific replacement rates are expected to lead to increases in LFPRs for ages between

62 and 69. 

• Retirement earnings test for Social Security: Social Security benefits of those who choose to continue to

work and to collect Social Security benefits before reaching the normal retirement age can be reduced if

earnings from employment exceed certain amounts. The increase in the normal retirement age from 66

to 67 subjects those age 66 to the earnings test and to the possibility of a reduction in benefits should

they choose to continue to work. This, in turn, leads to a decrease in their LFPR.

• Cohort effects: lagged cohort effects for those age 75 and older are used to capture the future evolution of

LFPRs at older ages, which cannot be observed sufficiently in historical data; the LFPR at age 74 is used to project the LFPRs at ages 75 and beyond, assuming that the LFPRs will gradually decline with age.

• Time trend: used only for some (younger) groups. 

Not all variables are included in every equation. Different demographic groups have distinct subsets of variables affecting their LFPRs. Tables A1 and A2 summarize which variables are included in the equations for each demographic

group.
41

To determine the influence of each variable on LFPRs, we use quarterly and annual data on labor force participation

from the Current Population Survey (CPS). The Census Bureau conducts the CPS monthly for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It is based on a sample of approximately 60,000 households that are representative of the civilian noninstitutional population age 16 years and older in the United States. The purpose of the CPS is to collect data on labor force

participation, employment, unemployment, persons not in the labor force, hours of work, earnings, and other demographic and labor force characteristics. We use quarterly and annual CPS data as inputs for each of our 153 equations.

The assumed effects of each of the variables on the LFPR of a given demographic group are derived from historical

data. Several of the effects are estimated from regression equations of LFPRs on the variables in question, using CPS

data. This method is used to determine the effects on LFPRs of the state of the economy, educational attainment, marital status, and the time trend. 

Other effects are estimated by tabular relationships in past data. These include the effect on LFPRs of replacement rates

and the retirement earnings test. Yet other effects are imputed on the basis of a priori assumptions, which is done for the

effect of disability prevalence and the lagged cohort effects for older ages.

Once the effects of the various factors on LFPRs of each demographic group are estimated, future LFPRs are projected

by applying the estimated effects to the projected population. The unadjusted LFPRs, for example the LFPR for the

civilian population age 16 and older, change over time both because LFPRs of various demographic groups evolve and

because the shares of each demographic group in the total population change. To isolate the effects that are independent

of the shift in the demographic composition of the population, we prefer to focus on the age-sex-adjusted LFPRs. These

adjusted rates reflect the 2011 distribution of the civilian noninstitutional U.S. population.

Finally, we apply two adjustments to the projected LFPRs. The life expectancy adjustment is intended to capture the

effects of changing (lengthening) life expectancy. The total labor force adjustment (“addfactor”) brings the model values in line with the most recent observed historical data, and it is phased out within the first several years of the projection period.1

Projections for the last 65 years of the 75-year projection period generally assume away any business-cycle fluctuations. Therefore, there is no effect of economic cycles on the projected LFPRs far into the future.

1 The OCACT labor force model also includes addfactors for certain age-sex groups that are used to smooth the age profile of LFPRs and other idiosyncrasies. 

These addfactors are not phased out over time and thus their effect persists throughout the projection period. Their effect on the projected aggregate LFPRs is 

extremely small.
42Table A1. OCACT Labor Force Model; LFPR Estimated Equations, Men

2021 Trustees Report

Adjustments Base

Total

Components

Change in Demographic Distribution

Business 

Cycle

Disability 

Prevalence Education

Replacement 

Rate

Earnings 

Test

Group 

1 Total LF LE Individual Age Gender

Marital 

Status

Child 

Presence

M1617      M1819      

M2024NM       

M2024MS       

M2024MA      M2529NM      

M2529MS       

M2529MA       

M3034NM     

M3034MS     

M3034MA      M3539NM      

M3539MS     

M3539MA     

M4044NM      

M4044MS      

M4044MA     M4549NM     

M4549MS      

M4549MA      M5054NM     

M5054MS     

M5054MA      

M55       M56      M57      M58       M59       M60      M61      M62         M63         M64       M65       M66         M67         M68       M69       M70       M71       M72      M73      M74       M75    M76   
43

M77   M78    M79    M80   

M81   

M82    M83    M84   

M85   

M86    M87    M88   

M89   

M90    M91    M92   

M93   

M94    M95    M96   

M97   

M98    M99    

M100   

1 Classified by sex, age span, and marital status of target group. In this classification, “M” represents men, “F” represents women,“1617” represents ages 16 and 17, “202

21, 22, 23, and 24, “55” represents age 55 only, etc., “NM” represents “never married”, “MS” represents “married with spouse present”, and “MA” represents “married w(comprised of widowed, divorced, and separated).

Table A1. OCACT Labor Force Model; LFPR Estimated Equations, Men (Cont.)

2021 Trustees Report

Adjustments Base

Total

Components

Change in Demographic Distribution

Business 

Cycle

Disability 

Prevalence Education

Replacement 

Rate

Earnings 

Test

Group 

1 Total LF LE Individual Age Gender

Marital 

Status

Child 

Presence
44Table A2. OCACT Labor Force Model; LFPR Estimated Equations, Women

2021 Trustees Report

Adjustments Base

Total

Components

Change in Demographic distribution

Business 

Cycle

Disability 

Prevalence Education

Replacement 

Rate

Earn

Te

Group 

1 Total LF LE Individual Age Gender

Marital 

Status

Child 

Presence

F1617      F1819      

F2024NMNC6       F2024NMC6U      

F2024MSNC6      F2024MSC6U     

F2024MANC6       F2024MAC6U      F2529NMNC6      F2529NMC6U     

F2529MSNC6       F2529MSC6U      

F2529MANC6      F2529MAC6U     F3034NMNC6      F3034NMC6U      

F3034MSNC6     F3034MSC6U     

F3034MANC6      F3034MAC6U      F3539NMNC6     F3539NMC6U     

F3539MSNC6      F3539MSC6U      

F3539MANC6     F3539MAC6U     F4044NMNC6      F4044NMC6U      

F4044MSNC6     F4044MSC6U     

F4044MANC6      F4044MAC6U      

F4549NM     

F4549MS     

F4549MA      F5054NM      

F5054MS      

F5054MA     

F55       F56       F57      F58      F59       F60       F61      
45

F62        F63         F64         F65        F66        F67         F68         F69        F70      F71       F72       F73      F74      F75    F76    F77   

F78   

F79    F80    F81   

F82   

F83    F84    F85   

F86   

F87    F88    F89   

F90   

F91    F92    F93   

F94   

F95    F96    F97   

F98   

F99    

F100    

1 Classified by sex, age span, marital status, and presence of children for the target group. In this classification, “M” represents men, “F” represents women, “1617” represe

represents ages 20, 21, 22, 23, and 24, “55” represents age 55 only, etc., “NM” represents never married, “MS” represents married with spouse present, “MA” represents 

(comprised of widowed, divorced, and separated), “C6U” represents the presence of any number of children under the age of 6, and “NC6” represents no children presen

Table A2. OCACT Labor Force Model; LFPR Estimated Equations, Women (Cont.)

2021 Trustees Report

Adjustments Base

Total

Components

Change in Demographic distribution

Business 

Cycle

Disability 

Prevalence Education

Replacement 

Rate

Earn

Te

Group 

1 Total LF LE Individual Age Gender

Marital 

Status

Child 

Presence