Vital Records Wish List

NCVHS Hearing on Next Generation Vital Statistics

Panel 4. Challenges and Opportunities: Federal Level

Karen Glenn, Deputy Chief Actuary

Mark Bye, Actuary

Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration

September 12, 2017
Overview

• Births and deaths data is very reliable.

• We will focus on our marriage and divorce data needs.

• However, we also have huge data demands for 

immigration.

2
Births and Deaths

• Births and deaths data is very reliable in recent history.

• Even going back in time from recent history, births and 

deaths are fairly reliable (underreporting was an issue).

• There is a difference between the U.S. and the Social 

Security area: Social Security area includes the states, 

D.C., territories, federal employees and their dependents 

overseas, armed forces overseas, beneficiaries living 

abroad, and other Americans living abroad.

• Wish: That NCHS would provide territory data for births 

and deaths, and Census would make population 

estimates for territories. But any birth and death data 

outside the U.S. and its territories, but within the Social 

Security area, would certainly help. 3
Married Population

• The American Community Survey (ACS) provides 

estimates for those married (age of spouse 1 crossed 

with age of spouse 2) only if they are living together.

• Those that are separated or otherwise living apart (for 

example, one person is living in an assisted living facility) 

cannot currently be matched.

• The ACS started collecting same-sex spouse data in 

2012.

• Wish: That ACS would provide the sex and age of all 

spouses not in the same household.

4
New Marriages (NCHS)

• NCHS stopped collecting (or at least compiling) new 

marriages by age of husband crossed with age of wife in 

1995, and we now only receive the number of total 

marriages from NCHS. 

• Wish: It would be extremely helpful to have all years of 

data by single year of age of each spouse, sex of each 

spouse, and duration of marriage.

5
New Marriages (ACS)

• Some newly married couples may not be living together 

and are, therefore, not captured by the ACS.

• Wish: Once again, it would be helpful if those who are 

newly married (the ACS asks if you were married in the 

last 12 months) also had a field for age and sex of the 

spouse.

6
Divorces

• NCHS provides some limited divorce data from the 1980s 

(age-group of husband crossed with age-group of wife) and 

estimates of totals after.

• We were able to get some data, of various levels of agegroups, from 19 states ranging from years 2009 – 2012.

• The National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) has marriage 

and divorce history, but has a much smaller sample size than 

the ACS, and only surveys those aged 15-44.

• Wish: That the ACS would ask the age and sex of the exspouse, marriage date, and divorce date, instead of just 

whether the respondent was divorced in the last 12 months. 

• Real Wish: That NCHS would have all this data for all 

persons and we would not to have to rely on a survey.

7
Divorces by Marriage Type

• Wish 1: With same-sex marriages being federally 

recognized, it would be very helpful to have divorces 

broken down by age of spouse 1, sex of spouse 1, age 

of spouse 2, and sex of spouse 2. 

• Wish 2: Duration of marriage would be very useful, 

especially with same-sex divorces, since there is so little 

data on same-sex divorces in the United States.

• Wish 3: We already get total divorces in Puerto Rico 

from the ACS, but we would like to get data on divorces 

in other territories and other outside areas.

8
Legal Emigration

• Although legal permanent resident (LPR) data are 

reliable and we have some rough estimates on total legal 

emigration, the age distribution and actual counts of 

annual legal emigrants are not available. 

• Wish: Counts of legal emigrants, by age and sex.

• Wish: We still base our distribution on data from the 

1980 and 1990 Censuses, so at the very least, it would 

be useful to update these data based on more recent 

Censuses.

9
American Citizens Overseas

• We receive some detailed data on Federal employees, 

armed forces, and beneficiaries residing overseas, but 

many other Americans are living abroad and not in these 

groups.

• Census and the State Department have done some 

rough total estimates of these other Americans in the 

past that we use.

• Wish: Americans overseas data by single year of age, 

sex, and living abroad category.

10
Other Immigration

• The following items, along with duration of residency, 

would help improve our other immigration models.

• Wish 1: Counts, by single year of age and sex, of 

nonimmigrants living in the U.S. (by certain categories of 

visas).

• Wish 2: Updated rates of those that overstay 

nonimmigrant visas, by single year of age and sex, to be 

applied to the nonimmigrant stock.

• Wish 3: Estimates of the never-authorized and visaoverstayer populations, by age, sex, and duration. 

• Wish 4: Estimates of those leaving the “other immigrant” 

population by age, sex, and immigrant type 

(nonimmigrant, never authorized, overstayer). 11