Differential Mortality Trends:

Causes vs. Correlates

SSA Retirement Research Consortium

Discussion by Steve Goss, OCACT/SSA

August 7, 2014 
Differential Mortality—Why?

• Are differences in mortality caused by level

of education or earnings?

• Or are they just correlated?

• Bound/Geronimus/Waidmann/Rodriguez 

explore this question by educational attainment

2
Death Rates by Socioeconomic Status

• Sorting by educational attainment

– Recognize changing shares—selection bias?

– Identified low quartile, and the balance 

• Show probability survive from age 25 to 35-85

– “Period life tables”—cross-section, not cohort

– Many excellent observations

• For OASDI, most important over age 65

– So let’s consider levels of and changes in annualized 

death rate 65-85 from 1990 to 2010

3
Males Improved a Lot Overall 

But very little for <high school; selection bias?

Male Non-Hispanic-White Population 

Annualized Death Rates from Age 65 to 85

 by Educational Attainment

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

All < High School

1990

2010

4
Male Low Quartile Education Did Better

But not nearly as well as high 75% education

Note overall rates are lower than both education groups

Male Non-Hispanic-White Population 

Annualized Death Rates from Age 65 to 85

 by Educational Attainment

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

All < High

School

Low 25%

Education

High 75%

Education

1990

2010

5
Females Little Improvement Overall

For < high school, rising deaths! Selection?

Female Non-Hispanic-White Population 

Annualized Death Rates from Age 65 to 85 

by Educational Attainment

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

All < High School

1990

2010

6
Female Controlled to Low Quartile Education

Much less increase

Female Non-Hispanic-White Population 

Annualized Death Rates from Age 65 to 85 

by Educational Attainment

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

All < High

School

Low 25%

Education

High 75%

Education

1990

2010

7
Suggestions

• Would be nice to see:

– All four quartiles

– More socioeconomic status groups

• Explore why educational groups all have 

higher death rates than for overall?

• Keep up the great work

8
Mortality by Career Earnings

• Preliminary results from Bosley/Morris/Clingman, 

OCACT/SSA

– SSA micro data for retired worker beneficiaries (w/o disabled)

– Career earnings more directly relevant to benefits

– But highly correlated to educational attainment

– Similar findings

• Sort by relative career earnings level—AIME

– Issues for those turning 62 before about 1985

• Also sort by quartile to lessen selectivity

– Less ambiguity for earlier cohorts

• Consider death rates relative to all retirees

9
Increase in Male RELATIVE Death Rates for 

Retirees with Lower LEVELS of Earnings 

Small share of males with low earnings

10

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

AIME < 35%

AWI

35% AWI <

AIME < 72.5%

AWI

72.5% AWI <

AIME < 130%

AWI

AIME > 130%

AWI

Male 65-69 Retired-Worker 

Relative Death Rates by AIME Level

1990

2010
Less Dispersion of Male Relative Death 

Rates by Career Earnings RANKING

Male 65-69 Retired-Worker 

Relative Death Rates by AIME Quartile

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1 2 3 4

1990

2010 11
Dispersion in Female Relative Death Rates by 

Earnings LEVEL: Shift to Higher Earnings Levels

Female 65-69 Retired-Worker 

Relative Death Rates by AIME Level

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

AIME < 35%

AWI

35% AWI <

AIME < 72.5%

AWI

72.5% AWI <

AIME < 130%

AWI

AIME > 130%

AWI

1990

2010

12
Similar Dispersion of Female Relative Death Rates 

by Career Earnings Ranking

Female 65-69 Retired-Worker 

Relative Death Rates by AIME Quartile

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1 2 3 4

1990

2010 13
What This All Tells Us

• Education and earnings certainly correlate with 

death rates, but extent of causation is still unclear

• Confirms OCACT “post-entitlement” factors

• Implications for Social Security plan design

– Different normal retirement ages?

– See Simpson/Bowles proposal

• Question: Will dispersion increase more?

– Will ACA help through better general health?

14