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The Surveys

We have summarized the best thinking of over 1,700icourt professionals, with various subsets having

reviewed 241 different possible scenarios of the future. This report highlights recent assessments, focuses 

on responses from NACM members, and compares their assessments with those of the overall group.

Twelve surveys conducted over ten years have sought to answer the question: What is the most likely future 

for courts? By assessing the probability of various scenarios occurring within the next ten years, then 

averaging those results, we have developed estimates of what the future might hold for courts. The 

assessments averaging from 1.0 to 1.9 are labeled Highly Likely; 2.0 to 2.4 - Likely; 2.5 to 2.9 - Maybe (50-50 

Chance); 3.0 to 3.4 - Unlikely; 3.5 and higher - Improbable.

For an in-depth look at many scenarios, we invite you to go to the https://www.Courtleader.net website. 

Janet Cornell hosts the site where we have posted several “thought pieces” on the CourtFutures webpage. 

You can request a full set of survey results by emailing us at CourtFutures@gmail.com.

No. 10: Artificial Intelligence (AI) Replaces the Human Element in Judicial Decision-Making

Instead of a scenario that is likely to occur, we thought it would be interesting to start with one that 

respondents thought was likely not to happen. The scenario proposed that artificial intelligence algorithms 

will advance to the point where they become better decision-makers than human judges.

Theme Overall Group

Artificial Intelligence Replaces the Human Judicial Decision-Making Improbable

NACM members assessed the scenario as having a 3.9 probability; non-NACM respondents assessed it as having 

a 4.0 probability.

No. 9: Court Managers Supervise Four Generations of Staff

Baby Boomers continue to be slow to retire from the office. Court offices now consist of four generations 

of staff working side-by-side. Each generation has its own “worldview” and requires different 

management approaches.

Theme Overall Group

Court Managers Supervise Four Generations of Staff Highly Likely

The overall group assessed this scenario as having a 1.9 probability; NACM members assessed it as having a 

1.8 likelihood; non-NACM respondents assessed it as having a 1.9 probability.

No. 8: Probation & Pretrial Use Virtual Conferencing to Confer with Probationers & Defendants

Probation and Pretrial Supervision realize that conducting routine meetings with probationers and 

defendants virtually is cheaper and more convenient.

Theme Overall Group

Probation & Pretrial Use Virtual Conferencing to Confer with Probationers & 

Defendants

Highly Likely

NACM members, non-NACM, and the group overall assessed the scenario as having a 1.6 probability.

2023 CourtFutures Top Trends to Watch:

By NACM Respondents 

Phillip Knox and Peter C. Kiefer

August 10, 2023
–2–

No. 7: Courts Continue to Struggle with Determining Responsibility, Liability, and Control of 

Algorithms

Artificial intelligence (AI) based on algorithms has become part of our lives and part of court functions. 

Court applications include pretrial release, sentencing, online dispute resolution, and law enforcement 

systems such as facial recognition and predictive policing. If an algorithm fails to perform as expected, is 

found to be biased, or is misused, who is legally responsible? Answers to these questions are slow in 

coming.

Theme Overall Group

Courts Continue Struggling to Determine Responsibility & Control of 

Algorithms

Likely

The overall group assessed this scenario as having a 2.1 probability; NACM members assessed the scenario as 

having a 2.0 likelihood; non-NACM respondents assessed it as Likely with a 2.1 probability.

No. 6: Demand Increases for Open Court Data

Outside organizations increase pressure on courts to make their data freely available. Data ends up being 

used, re-used, and redistributed by anyone with only minimal requirements.

Theme Overall Group

Demand Increases for Open Court Data Highly Likely

NACM members, non-NACM, and the group overall assessed the scenario as having a 1.9 probability.

No. 5: Streamlined Expungement Processes Help Convicted Drug Felons

Jurisdictions adopt simplified procedures for expunging convictions allowing individuals to seek jobs and 

housing without having to answer “yes” to questions about prior felony convictions. This scenario was 

first surveyed in the Winter of 2018 and assessed as Likely with a 2.4 average probability.

Theme Overall Group

Streamlined Expungement Processes Help Convicted Drug Felons Likely

The overall group gave the scenario a 2.1 probability; NACM members gave it a 2.0 probability; non-NACM 

respondents assessed it as having a 2.3 probability.

No. 4: Courts Provide Interpreter Access for All Cases

Bowing to public pressure and relying on remote interpretation technology, courts provide interpreter 

services for all cases and at all times during court business hours.

Theme Overall Group

Courts Provide Interpreter Access for All Cases Likely 

The overall group gave the scenario a 2.2 probability; NACM members gave it a 2.0 probability; non-NACM 

respondents assessed it as having a 2.4 probability.

No. 3: Increasingly Frequent Destructive Storms Result in More Reliance on COOPs

From massive snowstorms and then flooding to devastating forest fires and repeated hurricanes, climate 

change causes more frequent natural catastrophes. Courts start to regularly rely on their continuity of 

operations and emergency response plans.

Theme Overall Group

Increasingly Frequent Destructive Storms Result in More Reliance on 

COOPs

Likely

The NACM members, non-NACM respondents, and the overall group all assessed the scenario Likely, giving it 

a 2.0 probability.
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No. 2: Litigants Turn to Online Legal Advice

Websites and blogs that provide litigants with legal advice and court strategies cover an array of dispute 

types such as landlord–tenant actions, child custody and support, foreclosures, defaults, traffic and parking 

tickets, and drunk driving. Demand for attorneys continues to decline.

Theme Overall Group

Litigants Turn to Online Legal Advice Highly Likely

The overall group assessed the scenario as having a 1.9 probability; NACM members assessed the scenario as 

Highly Likely giving it a 1.9 likelihood; non-NACM respondents assessed it as Likely giving it a 2.0 probability.

No. 1: Smartphones Are Carried at All Times; They Continually Track Our Locations & Our

Lives

Smartphones become irreplaceable for navigating through daily life. They become the key form of 

personal identification replacing employee and student ID badges. They allow trusted customers to bypass 

long security checkpoints. They start our vehicles. They replace debit cards, credit cards, and even cash. 

While not required to carry one, not having a smartphone is so annoying that people rarely go without. As 

a side feature, smartphones track our locations 24/7 as well as serve as a visual and audio record of our 

lives.

Theme Overall Group

We Carry Our Smartphones All the Times; They Continually Track Our 

Locations & Our Lives

Highly Likely

The overall group and NACM members gave it a 1.5 probability; non-NACM respondents assessed it as having a 

1.6 probability.

We are gearing up for our 2024 survey and want to hear what you think we should ask. Also, let us know 

of anyone who might be interested in participating in the next survey. Email your suggestions to 

courtfutures@gmail.com.

i

Survey Total 

Responses

NACM 

Responses

Percentage

Spring 2013 232 70 30.2%

Summer 2013 212 67 31.6%

2014 510 120 23.5%

2015 493 137 27.8%

2016 369 119 32.2%

2017 391 132 33.8%

2018 352 155 44.0%

2019 398 216 54.3%

2020 412 238 57.8%

2021 358 170 47.5%

2022 321 156 48.6%

2023 289 159 55.0%