Table 2. Central value (50th percentile) of Probability of Causation, assuming leukemia is diagnosed at various times after

exposure. These central values, of PC are were calculated using the doses in Table 1 (which produce an upper 99th
percentile of probability of causation greater than 50%).

es Age at exposure (years)
exposure and = g 5 10 45 20 30 40 50 70
diagnosis
Probability of Causation (%)
0 ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++
5 20.0 22.3 26.7 28.4 30.1 31.1 31.5 30.7 32.5
10 26.7 27.7 30.0 31.3 31.6 35.7 33.0 31.3 32.9
15 27.1 31.8 32.0 32.7 33.4 38.4 38.0 37.2 34.4
20 27.7 31.7 33.2 33.0 36.5 37.9 37.7 33.9 -
30 20.7 24.7 27.6 30.7 33.7 36.5 32.5 29.6 _
40 9.0 12.8 14.9 20.2 21.5 26.0 25.1 _ _
50 4.0 6.0 8.8 12.1 14.4 20.4 bad ~ -
70 4.0 6.0 8.8 12.1 - , _ _ = -

++ The probability of causation is zero for a cancer diagnosed less than 2 years after exposure.

--- The probability of causation is not reported for unreal

ically high ages (2 age 90).


Elliott, Larry J.

\From: Paul.Seligman@eh.doe.gov
Sent: Friday, January 26, 2001 5:05 AM
To: Heather.Stockwell@eh.doe.gov
Ce: fje1@cdc.gov

Subject: Updated Tables

e) 8}

Microsoft Excel 97 Microsoft Excel 97

Thought you would both find these interesting.

Forwarded by Paul Seligman/EH/DOE on 01/26/2001

"Brian Thomas" <brian@senes.com> on 01/17/2001 12:09:13 PM

To: Paul Seligman/EH/DOEGEH
ce: “Owen Hoffman" <FOHof£3084@aol.com>
Subject: Updated Tables

“Attached are two tables that have been modified slightly from the tables
sent on January 6, 2001. These tables should be a bit easier to
understand.

We were afraid the previous tables may be confusing to some.

In addition, several of the values at older ages at time of diagnosis
(70-85) were revisited. A few of the doses reported in the earlier
tables

caused the PC to be much larger than 50%, rather than just larger than
50%.

The updated tables correct this issue.

Just a reminder:

These two tables contain doses and probability of causation values for
an.

individual exposed to low-LET radiation who later developed leukemia.
Both

tables report data as a function of the age of the individual when
exposed

and the time between their exposure and diagnosis of disease.

Table 1 reports doses (cSv) to red bone marrow (above background) which
produce an upper 99th percentile of probability of causation greater
than

508.

‘table 2 contains the 50th percentiles of the Probability of Causation
values for the doses in Table 1 (the 99th percentiles of the Probability
of
Causation values for these doses are at or slightly above 50%).

5

1


Please note that fixed-value doses were used for the purposes of this
calculation. If uncertainty in the doses had been considered, the
central

value of dose may be lower than the doses reported here. The additional
uncertainty in the dose would likely affect the upper 99th percentile of
the Probability of Causation. .

If you need further clarification or would like additional calculations
performed, please let us know. You may reply to this email or contact us

at
(865) 483-6111.
Sincerely,

Brian Thomas


Table 1. Doses (cSv) to red bone marrow (above background) which produce an upper 99th percentile of probability of causation

greater than 50%, assuming leukemia is diagnosed at various times after exposure. These calculations are for exposures
to low-LET radiation.

Ric Age at exposure (years)
exposure and g 5 40 18 20 30 40 50 70
diagnosis
Dose (cSv)
(i) ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++
5 - 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.3 3.8 6.0 9.0 12
10 1.8 2.3 3.0 3.8 4.5 7.5 9.3 12 15
15 44 6.0 6.8 7.8 9.0 14 17 20 20
20 10 13 14 15 18 21 23 22 _
30 33 38 41 44 47 47 37 30 _
40 60 70 70 80 75 70 52 _ —-
50 110 120 130 135 125 110 - _ _
70 110 120 130 135 —— - _ _ _

++ The probability of causation is zero for a cancer diagnosed less than 2 years after exposure.

-~ The probability of causation is not reported for unrealistically high ages (2 age 90).