# EUR-Lex - 52012DC0322 - EN

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# 52012DC0322

**Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION on the Netherlands’ 2012 national reform programme and delivering a Council opinion on the Netherlands’ stability programme for 2012-2015 /* COM/2012/0322 final */**

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Recommendation for a

COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION

on the Netherlands’ 2012 national reform
programme
and delivering a Council opinion on the Netherlands’ stability programme for
2012-2015

THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION,

Having regard to the Treaty on the
Functioning of the European Union, and in particular Articles 121(2) and 148(4)
thereof,

Having regard to Council Regulation (EC) No
1466/97 of 7 July 1997 on the strengthening of the surveillance of budgetary
positions and the surveillance and coordination of economic policies[1], and in particular Article 5(2)
thereof,

Having regard to the recommendation of the
European Commission[2],

Having regard to the resolutions of the
European Parliament[3],

Having regard to the conclusions of the
European Council,

Having regard to the opinion of the
Employment Committee,

After consulting the Economic and Financial
Committee,

Whereas:

(1)       On 26 March 2010, the
European Council agreed to the European Commission’s proposal to launch a new
strategy for jobs and growth, Europe 2020, based on enhanced coordination of
economic policies, which will focus on the key areas where action is needed to
boost Europe’s potential for sustainable growth and competitiveness.

(2)       On 13 July 2010, the
Council adopted a recommendation on the broad guidelines for the economic
policies of the Member States and the Union (2010 to 2014) and, on 21 October
2010, adopted a decision on guidelines for the employment policies of the
Member States[4],
which together form the ‘integrated guidelines’. Member States were invited to
take the integrated guidelines into account in their national economic and
employment policies.

(3)       On 12 July 2011, the
Council adopted a recommendation on the Netherlands’ national reform programme for
2011 and delivered its opinion on the Netherlands’ updated stability programme for
2011-2014.

(4)       On 23 November 2011, the
Commission adopted the second Annual Growth Survey, marking the start of the
second European Semester of ex-ante and integrated policy coordination, which
is anchored in the Europe 2020 strategy. On 14 February 2012, the Commission,
on the basis of Regulation (EU) 1176/2011, adopted the Alert Mechanism Report[5], in which it did not identify
the Netherlands as one of the Member States for which an in-depth review would
be carried out.

(5)       On 2 March 2012, the
European Council endorsed the priorities for ensuring financial stability,
fiscal consolidation and action to foster growth. It underscored the need to pursue
differentiated, growth-friendly fiscal consolidation, to restore normal lending
conditions to the economy, to promote growth and competitiveness, to tackle
unemployment and the social consequences of the crisis, and to modernise public
administration.

(6)       On
2 March 2012, the European Council also invited the Member States participating
in the Euro Plus Pact to present their commitments in time for inclusion in
their stability or convergence programmes and their national reform programmes.

(7)       On 27 April 2012, the
Netherlands submitted its stability programme covering the period 2012-2015 and
its 2012 national reform programme. In order to take account of their
interlinkages, the two programmes have been assessed at the same time.

(8)       Based on the assessment of
the 2012 stability programme pursuant to Council Regulation (EC) No 1466/97,
the Council is of the opinion that the macroeconomic scenario underpinning the
budgetary projections in the programme is optimistic. For 2013, the stability programme
projects economic growth of 11⁄4% without taking into account the negative impact
of the additional consolidation measures on growth, whilst, on the basis of the
same no-policy change scenario, the Commission's forecast a lower growth rate
of 0.7%. The stated objective of the programme is to meet the Council recommendations
on correcting the excessive deficit and to strive to further improve the
budgetary position towards the medium-term budgetary objective (MTO) by
targeting a structural effort of at least 0.5% per year. The programme targets
a headline general government deficit of 3% of GDP in 2013 and confirms the
previous MTO of a structural deficit of 0.5% of GDP, which adequately reflects
the requirements of the Stability and Growth Pact. The average annual fiscal
effort of 0.75% of GDP over the period 2010-2013, based on the (recalculated)
structural budget balance[6],
is in line with the structural effort of 3⁄4% of GDP recommended by the Council.
As the programme does not provide budgetary targets beyond 2013, the
sustainability of the budgetary correction in 2013 and progress towards the MTO
in the outer years, including compliance with the expenditure benchmark of the
Stability and Growth Pact, cannot be assessed. The budgetary projections over
the programme period are subject to implementation risks. These are not solely
restricted to the newly announced consolidation measures, but also to the
implementation of some of the measures agreed upon earlier by the outgoing
government. Moreover, the additional measures proposed by the government in
April 2012 and their budgetary impact are not sufficiently specified and
quantified. Budgetary adjustment has so far relied mostly on expenditure cuts,
which also affect growth-enhancing expenditure. According to the 2012 stability
programme, the debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to further rise relatively
markedly in 2012, to 70.2% of GDP and to increase slightly further to 70.7% of
GDP in 2013, taking into account the impact of the additional consolidation
measures. The debt ratio is thus projected to remain well above the 60% reference
value. For 2014 and 2015, the programme does not specify debt targets and
therefore an assessment of compliance with the debt reduction benchmark of the
Stability and Growth Pact beyond 2013 cannot be given.

(9)       Social partners and the
Dutch government reached a comprehensive agreement on pension reform in September
2011 and the government presented plans to increase the statutory retirement
age to 66 in 2019 and 67 in 2024. After that the statutory retirement age will
be coupled to life expectancy. Labour market measures would support a
corresponding increase in the effective retirement age. In line with the
government agreement, the pension reform aims at securing an appropriate and
sustainable intra- and intergenerational sharing of costs and risks in the
second pillar. With regard to long-term care, the Dutch government has provided
a blueprint for reform. Further concrete measures will be necessary to contribute
to reducing the financial burden of the ageing society in the Netherlands.

(10)     Fiscal disincentives for
second-income earners have been reduced but not yet sufficiently. Removing
remaining disincentives would further contribute to raising labour supply and
make human capital allocation more efficient. The labour market integration of vulnerable
groups should be improved.

(11)     In the field of enterprise
policy, the top sector agendas have been endorsed and sectoral ‘innovation
contracts’ have been signed between the government and industry representatives.
Support to private research is being increased through the introduction of the
RDA+ tax deduction scheme as part of the incentives to further promote
innovation, private R&D and closer science-business links. However, the
focus on ‘top sectors’ should not come at the cost of fundamental research nor
exclude innovative firms that do not belong to one of the ‘top sectors’.

(12)     Over the last four decades,
structural distortions have built up in the Dutch housing market. In the
property market, fundamental supply restrictions and tax incentives for home
ownership (notably mortgage interest deductibility favouring higher-income
households) have led to an inefficient allocation of capital. In the rental
market, with its very large social housing segment, social policies and caps on
rent levels and on rent increases have led to a very inelastic supply of rental
housing. Modifying the favourable tax treatment of home ownership would
contribute to reducing the structural distortions on the Dutch housing market.

(13)     The Netherlands has made a
number of commitments under the Euro Plus Pact. These commitments, and the
implementation of the commitments presented in 2011, relate to fostering
employment, improving competitiveness, reinforcing financial stability, and
enhancing sustainability of public finances. The Commission has assessed the
implementation of the Euro Plus Pact commitments. The results of this
assessment have been taken into account in the recommendations.

(14)     In the context of the
European Semester, the Commission has carried out a comprehensive analysis of
the Netherlands’ economic policy. It has assessed the stability programme and national
reform programme. It has taken into account not only their relevance for
sustainable fiscal and socio-economic policy in the Netherlands but also their compliance
with EU rules and guidance, given the need to reinforce the overall economic
governance of the European Union by providing EU-level input into future
national decisions. Its recommendations under the European Semester are
reflected in recommendations (1) to (5) below.

(15)     In the light of this
assessment, the Council has examined the Netherlands’ stability programme, and
its opinion[7]
is reflected in particular in recommendation (1) below,

HEREBY RECOMMENDS that the
Netherlands should take action within the period 2012-2013 to:

1.           Ensure progress towards
the timely and durable correction of the excessive deficit. To this end, fully
implement the budgetary strategy for 2012 as envisaged. Specify the measures
necessary to ensure implementation of the 2013 budget with a view to ensuring
the structural adjustment effort specified in the Council recommendations under
the Excessive Deficit Procedure. Thereafter, ensure an adequate structural
adjustment effort to make sufficient progress towards the medium-term budgetary
objective (MTO), including meeting the expenditure benchmark, and ensure
sufficient progress towards compliance with the debt reduction benchmark whilst
protecting expenditure in areas directly relevant for growth such as research
and innovation, education and training. To this end, after the formation of a
new government, submit an update of the 2012 stability programme with substantiated
targets and measures for the period beyond 2013.

2.           Take measures to increase
the statutory retirement age, including linking it to life expectancy, and
underpin these with labour market measures, whilst improving the long-term
sustainability of public finances. Adjust the second pension pillar to mirror
the increase in the statutory retirement age, while ensuring an appropriate
intra- and inter-generational division of costs and risks. Implement the
planned reform in long-term care and complement it with further measures, in
view of an ageing population.

3.           Enhance participation in
the labour market, particularly of older people, women, and people with
disabilities and migrants, including by further reducing tax disincentives for
second-income earners, fostering labour market transitions, and addressing
rigidities.

4.           Promote innovation,
private R&D investment and closer science-business links, as well as foster
industrial renewal by providing suitable incentives in the context of the
enterprise policy, while safeguarding accessibility beyond the strict
definition of top sectors and preserving fundamental research.

5.           Take steps to gradually
reform the housing market, including by: (i) modifying the favourable tax
treatment of home ownership, including by phasing out mortgage interest
deductibility and/or through the system of imputed rents, (ii) providing for a
more market-oriented pricing mechanism in the rental market, and (iii) for
social housing, aligning rents with household income.

Done at Brussels,

For
the Council

The
President

[1]               OJ L 209, 02.08.1997, p. 1

[2]               COM(2012)322 final

[3]               P7_TA(2012)0048 and P7_TA(2012)0047

[4]               Council Decision 2012/238/EU of 26 April 2012

[5]               COM(2012) 68 final.

[6]               Cyclically adjusted balance net of one-off and
temporary measures, recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the information provided in the programme, using
the commonly agreed methodology.

[7]               Under Article 5(2) of Council Regulation (EC) No
1466/97.