[Federal Register Volume 72, Number 219 (Wednesday, November 14, 2007)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 64023-64034]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 07-5647]


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DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

50 CFR Part 648

[Docket No. 071030625-7626-01]
RIN 0648-XC84


Fisheries of the Northeastern United States; Summer Flounder, 
Scup, and Black Sea Bass Fisheries; 2008 Summer Flounder, Scup, and 
Black Sea Bass Specifications; 2008 Research Set-Aside Projects

AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and 
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Commerce.

ACTION: Proposed specifications; request for comments.

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SUMMARY: NMFS proposes specifications for the 2008 summer flounder, 
scup, and black sea bass fisheries and provides notice of three 
conditionally approved projects that will be requesting Exempted 
Fishing Permits (EFPs) as part of the Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management 
Council's (Council) Research Set-Aside (RSA) program. The implementing 
regulations for the Summer Flounder, Scup, and Black Sea Bass Fishery 
Management Plan (FMP) require NMFS to publish specifications for the 
upcoming fishing year for each of these species and to provide an 
opportunity for public comment. Furthermore, regulations under the 
Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act (Magnuson-
Stevens Act) require a notice to be published to provide interested 
parties the opportunity to comment on applications for EFPs. The intent 
of this action is to establish harvest levels that assure that the 
target fishing mortality rates (F) or exploitation rates specified for 
these species in the FMP are not exceeded and to allow for rebuilding 
of the stocks as well as to provide notice of EFP requests, all in 
accordance with the Magnuson-Stevens Act.

DATES: Comments must be received on or before December 3, 2007.

ADDRESSES: You may submit comments, identified by RIN 0648-XC84, by any 
one of the following methods:
    <bullet> Electronic Submissions: Submit all electronic public 
comments via the Federal eRulemaking Portal http://www.regulations.gov.
    <bullet> Mail and hand delivery: Patricia A. Kurkul, Regional 
Administrator, NMFS, Northeast Regional Office, One Blackburn Drive, 
Gloucester, MA 01930. Mark the outside of the envelope:

[[Page 64024]]

 ``Comments on 2008 Summer Flounder, Scup, and Black Sea Bass 
Specifications.''
    <bullet> Fax: (978) 281-9135.
    Instructions: All comments received are a part of the public record 
and will generally be posted to http://www.regulations.gov without 
change. All Personal Identifying Information (for example, name, 
address, etc.) voluntarily submitted by the commenter may be publicly 
accessible. Do not submit Confidential Business Information or 
otherwise sensitive or protected information.
    NMFS will accept anonymous comments. Attachments to electronic 
comments will be accepted in Microsoft Word, Excel, WordPerfect, or 
Adobe PDF file formats only.
    Copies of the specifications document, including the Environmental 
Assessment, Regulatory Impact Review, and Initial Regulatory 
Flexibility Analysis (EA/RIR/IRFA) and other supporting documents for 
the specifications are available from Daniel Furlong, Executive 
Director, Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council, Room 2115, Federal 
Building, 300 South Street, Dover, DE 19901-6790. These documents are 
also accessible via the Internet at http://www.nero.noaa.gov.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Michael Ruccio, Fishery Policy 
Analyst, (978) 281-9104.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:

Background

    The summer flounder, scup, and black sea bass fisheries are managed 
cooperatively by the Council and the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries 
Commission (Commission), in consultation with the New England and South 
Atlantic Fishery Management Councils. The management units specified in 
the FMP include summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) in U.S. waters 
of the Atlantic Ocean from the southern border of North Carolina 
northward to the U.S./Canada border, and scup (Stenotomus chrysops) and 
black sea bass (Centropristis striata) in U.S. waters of the Atlantic 
Ocean from 35[deg]13.3'N. lat. (the latitude of Cape Hatteras 
Lighthouse, Buxton, North Carolina) northward to the U.S./Canada 
border. Implementing regulations for these fisheries are found at 50 
CFR part 648, subpart A (General Provisions), subpart G (summer 
flounder), subpart H (scup), and subpart I (black sea bass).
    The regulations outline the process for specifying the annual 
commercial quotas and recreational harvest limits for the summer 
flounder, scup, and black sea bass fisheries, as well as other 
management measures (e.g., mesh requirements, minimum fish sizes, gear 
restrictions, possession restrictions, and area restrictions) for these 
fisheries. The measures are intended to achieve the annual targets set 
forth for each species in the FMP, specified either as an F or an 
exploitation rate (the proportion of fish available at the beginning of 
the year that are removed by fishing during the year). Once the catch 
limits are established, they are divided into quotas based on formulas 
contained within the FMP.
    As required by the FMP, a Monitoring Committee for each species, 
made up of members from NMFS, the Commission, and both the Mid-Atlantic 
and New England Fishery Management Councils, reviews the best available 
scientific information and recommends catch limits and other management 
measures that will achieve the target F or exploitation rate for each 
fishery. Consistent with the implementation of Framework Adjustment 5 
to the FMP (69 FR 62818, October 28, 2004), each Monitoring Committee 
meets annually to recommend the Total Allowable Landings (TAL), unless 
the TAL has already been established for the upcoming calendar year as 
part of a multiple-year specification process, provided that new 
information does not require a modification to the multiple-year 
quotas. Further, the TALs may be specified in any given year for the 
following 1, 2, or 3 years. The Council is not obligated to specify 
multi-year TALs, but is able to do so, depending on the information 
available and the status of the fisheries.
    The Council's Demersal Species Committee and the Commission's 
Summer Flounder, Scup, and Black Sea Bass Management Board (Board) 
consider the Monitoring Committees' recommendations and any public 
comment and make their own recommendations. While the Board action is 
final, the Council's recommendations must be reviewed by NMFS to assure 
that they comply with FMP objectives and applicable law. The Council 
and Board made their recommendations at a joint meeting held August 7-
9, 2007.

Explanation of Research Set-Aside (RSA)

    Background: In 2001, regulations were implemented under Framework 
Adjustment 1 to the FMP to allow up to 3 percent of the TAL for each 
species to be set aside each year for scientific research purposes. For 
the 2008 fishing year, a Request for Proposals was published to solicit 
research proposals based upon the research priorities that were 
identified by the Council (71 FR 77726, December 27, 2006).
    NMFS has conditionally approved three research projects for the 
harvest of the portion of the quota that has been recommended by the 
Council to be set aside for research purposes. In anticipation of 
receiving applications for EFPs to conduct this research, the Assistant 
Regional Administrator for Sustainable Fisheries, Northeast Region, 
NMFS (Assistant Regional Administrator), has made a preliminary 
determination that the activities authorized under the EFPs issued in 
response to the approved RSA projects would be consistent with the 
goals and objectives of the FMP. However, further review and 
consultation may be necessary before a final determination is made to 
issue any EFP.
    For informational purposes, these proposed specifications include a 
statement indicating the amount of quota that has been preliminarily 
set aside for research purposes (a percentage of the TAL for each 
fishery, not to exceed 3 percent, as recommended by the Council and 
Board), and a brief description of the RSA projects, including 
exemptions requested, and the amount of RSA requested for each project. 
The RSA amounts may be adjusted, following consultation with RSA 
applicants, in the final rule establishing the 2008 specifications for 
the summer flounder, scup, and black sea bass fisheries. If the total 
amount of RSA is not awarded, NMFS will publish a document in the 
Federal Register to restore the unused amount to the applicable TAL.
    For 2008, the conditionally approved projects may collectively be 
awarded the following amounts of RSA: 233,192 lb (106 mt) of summer 
flounder; 214,000 lb (97 mt) of scup; and 85,790 lb (39 mt) of black 
sea bass. The projects may also be collectively awarded up to 50,000 lb 
(23 mt) of both Loligo squid and Atlantic bluefish.
    2008 RSA Proposal Summaries: The University of Rhode Island 
submitted a proposal to conduct a fifth year of work in a fishery-
independent scup survey that would utilize unvented fish traps fished 
on hard bottom areas in southern New England waters to characterize the 
size composition of the scup population. Survey activities would be 
conducted from May 15 through October 15, 2008, at 10 rocky bottom 
study sites located offshore, where there is a minimal scup pot fishery 
and no active trawl fishery, and at two scup spawning ground sites. Up 
to two vessels would conduct the research survey. Sampling would occur 
off the coasts of Rhode Island and southern

[[Page 64025]]

Massachusetts. Up to three vessels would harvest the RSA during the 
period January 1 through December 31, 2007. The principle investigators 
have requested exemptions from trip limits, gear requirements 
(excluding marine mammal avoidance and/or release devices), and closed 
seasons for harvest of RSA species. The preliminary RSA requested for 
this project is 2,000 lb (907 kg) of summer flounder; 64,000 lb (29 mt) 
of scup; and 24,000 lb (11 mt) of black sea bass.
    The Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS) submitted a 
proposal to conduct a near-shore trawl survey in Mid-Atlantic waters 
between Gay Head, Massachusetts, and Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, 
including both Block Island and Rhode Island Sounds. A stratified 
random sampling of approximately 200 stations will occur in depths 
between 18-60 feet (8-18 m). The function of the survey would be to 
provide stock assessment data for summer flounder, scup, black sea 
bass, Loligo squid, butterfish, Atlantic bluefish, several species 
managed by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission (Commission) 
such as weakfish and Atlantic croaker, and unmanaged forage species. 
The research aspects of the trawl survey will be conducted by one VIMS 
scientific research vessel operating under the control of VIMS 
personnel. This vessel will operate under a Letter of Authorization 
(LOA) as provided for by the specific exemption for scientific research 
activities found at 50 CFR 600.745. Up to 35 vessels will harvest the 
RSA between January 1 through December 31 during commercial fishing 
operations, except that these vessels have requested exemptions for 
closed seasons and trip limits to harvest the RSA allocated to the 
project. The preliminary RSA requested by this project is 150,000 lb 
(68 mt) of both summer flounder and scup and 50,000 lb (23 mt) each of 
black sea bass, Atlantic bluefish, and Loligo squid.
    The National Fisheries Institute (NFI) has submitted a proposal to 
conduct an evaluation of discard mortality for summer flounder in trawl 
fisheries. This study is designed to work in concert with a previous 
summer flounder mortality RSA-funded study conducted in 2007. Combined 
sources of mortality and injury quantification that occur as part of 
trawling, tracking and tagging, and scuba diver observation will be 
utilized to provide an estimate of trawl-related mortality. Research 
sampling will be conducted adjacent to Little Egg Inlet off the New 
Jersey coast in September and October 2008. One vessel will conduct the 
research activities and may simultaneously participate in harvesting 
RSA, if the season for summer flounder is closed or if more fish, above 
those needed for the research activities, are caught than are permitted 
by possession limits. The principle investigators have requested 
exemption from the commercial summer flounder minimum size so that fish 
smaller than 14 inches (35.5 cm) may be temporarily retained to assess 
viability and to affix tags and data transmitters. Up to 35 vessels 
will harvest the RSA between January 1 through December 31 under during 
commercial fishing operations, except that these vessels have requested 
exemptions for closed seasons and trip limits to harvest the RSA 
allocated to the project. The preliminary RSA requested by this project 
is 81,192 lb (37 mt) of summer flounder 50,000 lb (23 mt) and 11,790 lb 
(5 mt) of black sea bass.
    Regulations under the Magnuson-Stevens Act require publication of 
this notification to provide interested parties the opportunity to 
comment on applications for proposed EFPs.

Explanation of Quota Adjustments Due to Quota Overages

    This action proposes commercial quotas based on the proposed TALs 
and Total Allowable Catches (TACs) and the formulas for allocation 
contained in the FMP. In 2002, NMFS published final regulations to 
implement a regulatory amendment (67 FR 6877, February 14, 2002) that 
revised the way in which the commercial quotas for summer flounder, 
scup, and black sea bass are adjusted if landings in any fishing year 
exceed the quota allocated (thus resulting in a quota overage). If NMFS 
approves a different TAL or TAC at the final specifications stage 
(i.e., in the final rule), the commercial quotas will be recalculated 
based on the formulas in the FMP. Likewise, if new information 
indicates that overages have occurred and deductions are necessary, 
NMFS will publish notice of the adjusted quotas in the Federal 
Register. NMFS anticipates that the information necessary to determine 
whether overage deductions are necessary will be available by the time 
the final specifications are published. The commercial quotas contained 
in these proposed specifications for summer flounder, scup, and black 
sea bass do not reflect any deductions for overages. The final 
specifications, however, will contain quotas that have been adjusted 
consistent with the procedures described above.

Summer Flounder

    The Southern Demersal Working Group (SDWG), a technical stock 
assessment group composed of personnel from the Northeast Fisheries 
Science Center (NEFSC), NMFS Northeast Regional Office, Council, 
Commission, state marine fisheries agencies, academia, and an 
independent participant with stock assessment expertise selected by the 
Council, met June 19-20, 2007, to update the summer flounder assessment 
through 2006/2007 based on the most recent available research survey 
and fisheries catch data. This was a routine annual update, as called 
for by the FMP. The update utilized the model and methods evaluated and 
recommended for continued use in the most recent peer review conducted 
by the NMFS Office of Science and Technology Division (S&T) in 2006.
    The 2007 SDWG update shows that summer flounder are overfished and 
that overfishing occurred in 2006, the year for which the most recent, 
complete fishery-dependent data are available. The F estimated for 2006 
is 0.35, a reduction from the estimated F of 0.47 for 2005, but still 
above the F<INF>MAX</INF> threshold of 0.28. F<INF>MAX</INF> is the 
level of fishing mortality that produces maximum yield per recruit. The 
updated 2007 assessment confirms that summer flounder have been subject 
to overfishing each year of the rebuilding period that began in 2000. 
Spawning stock biomass (SSB) in 2006 was estimated to be 93.0 million 
lb (42,184 mt), below the S&T updated biomass threshold of \1/2\ 
SSB<INF>MSY</INF>= 98.6 million lb (44,724 mt). F<INF>MSY</INF> is the 
fishing mortality rate that, if applied constantly, would result in 
maximum sustainable yield (MSY). When F > F<INF>MAX</INF>, overfishing 
is considered to be occurring, and when B<\1/2\ B<INF>MSY</INF>, the 
stock is considered overfished. The arithmetic mean recruitment from 
1982 to 2006 is 37 million fish at age 0, with a median of 33 million 
fish. The 2006 year class is currently estimated to be about 30 million 
fish.
    The Virtual Population Analysis (VPA) model used in the summer 
flounder assessment tends to underestimate F and overestimate stock 
biomass in the most recent years of the analysis until those data 
stabilize as new data are added in subsequent years. The model has also 
produced variable patterns for recruitment. Typically, the magnitude of 
the retrospective patterns get smaller after 5 to 7 years and 
completely stabilizes (converges) after 10 years of data have been 
added to the model (i.e., the estimates of F, SSB, and

[[Page 64026]]

recruitment for the year 1995 have gradually stabilized over time and 
are now expected not to change when new data are added in successive 
years' updates).
    Over the last 3 years, the annual retrospective increase in fishing 
mortality has ranged from +20 to +40 percent. Over the last 3 years, 
the annual retrospective decrease in SSB has ranged from -8 to -22 
percent. Retrospective analysis shows no definitive trend in estimation 
of the abundance of age 0 fish in the most recent years. Over the last 
3 years, the annual retrospective change in recruitment has been 
variable and ranged from -7 to +13 percent. These patterns are likely 
the result of an underestimation of the true catch, due to discards 
and/or unreported landings. The impact for management, given these 
persistent retrospective patterns, is that the summer flounder stock is 
increasing at a lower rate and is currently at a smaller size than 
previously forecast.
    The regulations state that the Council shall recommend, and NMFS 
shall implement, measures (including the TAL) necessary to achieve, 
with at least a 50-percent probability of success, a fishing mortality 
rate that produces the maximum yield per recruit (FMAX). This 
requirement is also consistent with a 2000 Federal Court Order (Natural 
Resources Defense Council v. Daley, Civil No. 1:99 CV 00221 (JLG)) 
regarding the setting of the summer flounder TAL. Summer flounder are 
under a rebuilding program whose timeline for completion has been 
extended from January 1, 2010, to no later than January 1, 2013, by 
section 120(a) of the 2006 reauthorized Magnuson-Stevens Act.
    It has been evident in recent years that setting specifications 
designed to satisfy the minimum requirement of the regulations (i.e., a 
50-percent probability of achieving F<INF>MAX</INF>) is insufficient to 
prevent overfishing and to ensure that rebuilding will occur within the 
required timeframe. For the 2007 fishery, NMFS implemented a TAL that 
differed from the Council recommendation. The 2007 NMFS implemented TAL 
had a more precautionary 75-percent probability of achieving an F rate 
calculated to ensure that stock rebuilding will occur within the 
remaining years of the rebuilding time frame. This F rate, 
F<INF>REBUILD</INF>, was set at 0.203, which is lower than F<INF>MAX</INF> 
(0.28). It will not be possible to estimate if the 2007 F<INF>REBUILD</INF> 
target was successful in constraining fishing mortality at or below the 
0.203 level and in ending overfishing (i.e., F <0.28) until mid-year in 
2008, after the final 2007 recreational and commercial fisheries data 
have been compiled, audited, and are available for analysis.
    The SDWG 2007 assessment update analysis indicated a 2008 TAL of 
17.5 million lb (7,938 mt) at an F<INF>REBUILD</INF>=0.199 is forecast 
to rebuild the stock to the S&T recommended SSB<INF>MSY</INF>=197.2 
million lb (89,450 mt) by Nov 1, 2012, and to a Total Stock Biomass 
(TSB) =207.3 million lb (94,031 mt) by Jan 1, 2013. Maintaining the 
F<INF>REBUILD</INF>=0.199 rate for the remaining rebuilding period 
years of 2009-2012 is forecast by the SDWG's 2007 update to achieve the 
required stock rebuilding for summer flounder by the January 1, 2013, 
deadline, with at least a 50-percent probability of success. As such, 
this is the 2008 TAL analytical baseline that satisfies the minimum 
requirements of the Magnuson-Stevens Act rebuilding requirements and is 
consistent with the FMP regulations and Court rulings regarding 
probabilities for success. A TAL at this level is more conservative 
than the regulatory requirement that TAL recommendations have at least 
50 percent probability of achieving F<INF>MAX</INF> (i.e., 
F<INF>MAX</INF>=0.28, the SDWG baseline TAL is set below this at the 
F<INF>REBUILD</INF>=0.199 level).
    The Summer Flounder Monitoring Committee evaluated a range of 
options, derived from the SDWG's baseline, for the 2008 TAL and their 
associated probabilities for constraining fishing mortality within the 
F<INF>REBUILD</INF> target. In addition, the Monitoring Committee 
evaluated TALs and F target probabilities provided by Council staff 
wherein the 2008 F<INF>REBUILD</INF> value of 0.199 would be corrected 
in an attempt to compensate for the retrospective pattern which has 
resulted from the VPA analysis. Council staff applied a 1-year 
correction to the F<INF>REBUILD</INF> target by reducing the 2008 
F<INF>REBUILD</INF> by 28-percent from 0.199 to 0.143. Council staff 
derived the correction to F<INF>REBUILD</INF> by using the most recent 
3-year average underestimation of F in the model (i.e., 28 percent). 
The TAL and probability options recommended by Council staff ranged 
from a low of 11.64 million lb (5,280 mt) with a 75-percent probability 
of achieving the corrected 2008 F<INF>REBUILD</INF>=0.143, to a high of 
15.77 million lb (7,153 mt) that has a 75-percent probability of 
achieving the uncorrected 2008 F<INF>REBUILD</INF>=0.199.
    The Monitoring Committee recommended a TAL within the range of 
12.90 to 11.64 million lb (5,851 mt to 5,280 mt) to the Council. This 
range was based on the corrected F<INF>REBUILD</INF> value (0.143) and 
would achieve a 50- to 75-percent probability of achieving the 
corrected F, respectively. Both Council staff and the Monitoring 
Committee assumed in their analysis of the adjusted F<INF>REBUILD</INF> 
value for 2008 that the resulting TAL would be sufficient to correct, 
within 1 year, the course of the summer flounder rebuilding program 
provided the 2008 F target is not exceeded. The Monitoring Committee 
projections utilized for rebuilding years 2009-2012 assumes that the 
retrospective pattern ceases to occur. The TAL range proposed by the 
Monitoring Committee is more conservative than the regulatory 
requirements of the FMP and the statutory requirements of the Magnuson-
Stevens Act.
    The Council and the Board discussed the Monitoring Committee 
recommendation at the August Council meeting. The Council discussed at 
length the feasibility of achieving the rebuilding biomass target 
within the rebuilding period given recent recruitment levels and 
environmental factors, the retrospective patterns that arise from the 
VPA modeling approach, and the requirements of National Standard 1 that 
mandates management measures shall prevent overfishing while achieving 
optimum yield on a continuing basis and National Standard 8 that guides 
Councils to minimize, to the extent practicable, adverse impacts of 
conservation and management measures on fishing communities. The 
Council and the Board considered the various alternatives presented to 
them, and considered the need to rebuild the stock within the required 
timeframe, the needs of fishery participants, and the need to act with 
precaution in the face of uncertainty regarding the retrospective 
patterns. The Council adopted a 15.77-million-lb (7,153 mt) TAL that 
has a 75-percent probability of constraining mortality to the 
F<INF>REBUILD</INF> target of 0.199 in 2008. As such, the Council's 
recommended TAL exceeds the regulatory requirement for success by 
employing a probability greater than 50 percent. In addition, the F 
target is the lower F<INF>REBUILD</INF> (0.199) value as opposed to the 
minimally required F<INF>MAX</INF> value (0.28). The Council and Board 
agreed to set aside 233,192 lb (106 mt) of the proposed TAL for 
research. After deducting the RSA, the TAL would be divided into a 
commercial quota (60 percent) and a recreational harvest limit (40 
percent). All other management measures were recommended to remain 
status quo.
    The Commission is expected to maintain the voluntary measures 
currently in place to reduce regulatory discards that occur as a result 
of landing limits established by the states. The Commission established 
a system whereby 15 percent of each state's quota

[[Page 64027]]

would be voluntarily set aside each year to enable vessels to land an 
incidental catch allowance after the directed fishery has been closed. 
The intent of the incidental catch set-aside is to reduce discards by 
allowing fishermen to land summer flounder caught incidentally in other 
fisheries during the year, while also ensuring that the state's overall 
quota is not exceeded. These Commission set-asides are not included in 
these proposed specifications because these measures are not authorized 
by the FMP and NMFS does not have authority to implement them.
    Table 1 presents the proposed allocations by state, with and 
without the commercial portion of the RSA deduction. These state quota 
allocations are preliminary and are subject to reductions if there are 
overages of states quotas carried over from a previous fishing year 
(using the landings information and procedures described earlier). Any 
commercial quota adjustments to account for overages will be included 
in the final rule implementing these specifications.

                                         Table 1. 2007 Proposed Initial Summer Flounder State Commercial Quotas
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                            Commercial Quota                        Commercial Quota less RSA\1\
               State                      Percent Share     --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                       lb                    kg\2\                    lb                   kg\2\
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ME                                   0.04756                 4,500                   2,041                  4,434                  2,011
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NH                                   0.00046                 44                      20                     43                     19
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MA                                   6.82046                 645,352                 292,732                635,809                288,403
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI                                   15.68298                1,483,924               673,108                1,461,981              663,143
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CT                                   2.25708                 213,565                 96,873                 210,407                95,441
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NY                                   7.64699                 723,558                 328,206                712,859                323,348
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NJ                                   16.72499                1,582,519               717,830                1,559,118              707,204
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DE                                   0.01779                 1,683                   764                    1,658                  752
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MD                                   2.03910                 192,940                 87,517                 190,087                86,223
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VA                                   21.31676                2,016,992               914,892                1,987,166              901,363
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NC                                   27.44584                2,596,925               1,177,945              2,558,524              1,160,527
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total\3\                             100.00001               9,462,001               4,291,964              9,322,086              4,228,435
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Preliminary Research Set-Aside amount is 233,192 lb (106 mt).
\2\ Kilograms are as converted from pounds and do not sum to the converted total due to rounding.
\3\ Rounding of quotas results in totals exceeding 100 percent.

Scup

    Scup was last formally assessed in June 2002 at the 35th Northeast 
Regional SAW. At that time, SARC 35 indicated that the species was no 
longer overfished, but that stock status with respect to overfishing 
could not be evaluated. The stock is considered overfished when the 3-
year average of scup SSB is less than the biomass threshold (2.77 kg/
tow; the maximum NEFSC spring survey 3-year average of SSB).
    On August 18, 2005, NMFS notified the Council that the scup stock 
had been designated as overfished and that, within 1 year of that 
notice, an amendment or proposed regulations for the scup fishery to 
end overfishing and to rebuild the stock must be prepared in accordance 
with the Magnuson-Stevens Act. In response, the Council developed and 
submitted for Secretarial review, Amendment 14 to the FMP (Amendment 
14) to rebuild, during a 7-year period, the scup stock from an 
overfished condition to a biomass level (B) associated with MSY or 
(BMSY), as required by the Magnuson-Stevens Act. The Secretary approved 
Amendment 14 on July 3, 2007. The final rule implementing the amendment 
published in the Federal Register on July 23, 2007 (72 FR 40077). The 
rebuilding program begins on January 1, 2008 (i.e., year one of the 7-
year plan). The Amendment 14 rebuilding plan applies a constant F of 
0.10 in each year of the 7-year rebuilding period.
    The 2006 NEFSC Spring SSB 3-year average (2005-2007) index value of 
0.76 kg/tow remains below the minimum biomass threshold of 2.77 kg/tow. 
The scup stock is considered overfished. The NEFSC spring survey index 
increased significantly in 2004 to 1.85 kg/tow relative to the low 
value of 0.15 kg/tow derived in 2003. In 2005, the spring index dropped 
to 0.10 kg/tow; however, in 2006 this value increased to 2.04 kg/tow. 
The 2006 index was the highest value in the spring survey since 1978, 
excluding the high value in 2002. In 2007, this value dropped to 0.14 
kg/tow.
    The FMP specifies that the TAC associated with a given exploitation 
rate be allocated 78 percent to the commercial sector and 22 percent to 
the recreational sector. Scup discard estimates are deducted from both 
sectors' TACs to establish TALs for each sector, i.e., TAC minus 
discards equals TAL. The commercial TAC, discards, and TAL (commercial 
quota) are then allocated on a percentage basis to three quota periods, 
as specified in the FMP: Winter I (January-April)--45.11 percent; 
Summer (May-October)--38.95 percent; and Winter II (November-December)-
-15.94 percent.
    The Monitoring Committee recommended a 2008 TAL of 7.34 million lb 
(3,329 mt) to achieve the target exploitation rate of 9 percent 
(F=0.10). The discard estimates used by the Monitoring Committee in the 
2008 TAC calculations were based on the average discards of 2005 and 
2006 for the commercial and recreational fisheries. This discard 
estimate is 2.56 million lb (1,161 mt), resulting in a TAC

[[Page 64028]]

of 9.90 million lb (4,491 mt). The Council and the Board accepted the 
Monitoring Committee's recommendations for 2008. NMFS is proposing to 
implement the Council and Board recommendation as it complies with the 
provisions of the Amendment 14 rebuilding program. This TAL is a 38.8-
percent decrease from the 2007 TAL of 12.0 million lb (5,443 mt).
    The commercial TAC would be 7.72 million lb (3,502 mt) and the 
recreational TAC would be 2.18 million lb (989 mt). After deducting 
estimated discards (2.26 million lb (1,025 mt) for the commercial 
sector and 0.30 million lb (136 mt) for the recreational sector), the 
initial commercial quota would be 5.46 million lb (2,477 mt) and the 
recreational harvest limit would be 1.88 million lb (853 mt). The 
Council and Board agreed to set aside 214,000 lb (97 mt) of the TAL for 
research activities. Deducting this RSA would result in a commercial 
quota of 5.30 million lb (2,404 mt) and a recreational harvest limit of 
1.82 million lb (826 mt).
    The proposed 2008 specifications would maintain the status quo base 
scup possession limits, i.e., 30,000 lb (13,608 kg) for Winter I, to be 
reduced to 1,000 lb (454 kg) when 80 percent of the quota is projected 
to be reached, and 2,000 lb (907 kg) for Winter II).
    Table 2 presents the 2008 commercial allocation recommended by the 
Council, with and without the preliminary 214,000-lb (97-mt) RSA 
deduction. These 2008 allocations are preliminary and may be subject to 
downward adjustment due to 2006 overages in the final rule implementing 
these specifications, based on the procedures for calculating overages 
described earlier.

                                    Table 2. 2008 Proposed Initial TAC, Commercial Scup Quota, and Possession Limits
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                           Commercial Quota in    Commercial Quota    Possession Limits
            Period                  Percent        TAC in lb (mt)     Discards in lb (mt)        lb (mt)        less RSA in lb (mt)       in lb (kg)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Winter I                        45.11           3,483,394(1,580)      1,019,486(462)       2,463,908(1,118)     2,367,373(1,074)     30,000\1\(13,608)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Summer                          38.95           3,007,719(1,364)      880,270(399)         2,127,449(965)       2,044,096(927)       n/a
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Winter II                       15.94           1,230,887(558)        360,244(163)         870,643(395)         836,531(379)         2,000(907)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total\2\                        100.00          7,722,000(3,503)      2,260,000(1,025)     5,462,000(2,478)     5,248,000(2,380)     ...................
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\The Winter I landing limit would drop to 1,000 lb (454 kg) upon attainment of 80 percent of the seasonal allocation.
\2\Totals subject to rounding error.
n/a-Not applicable

    The final rule to implement Framework 3 to the FMP (68 FR 62250, 
November 3, 2003) implemented a process, for years in which the full 
Winter I commercial scup quota is not harvested, to allow unused quota 
from the Winter I period to be rolled over to the quota for the Winter 
II period. As shown in Table 3, the proposed specifications would 
maintain the status quo Winter II possession limit-to-rollover amount 
ratios (i.e., 1,500 lb (680 kg) per 500,000 lb (227 mt) of unused 
Winter I period quota).

                              Table 3. Potential Increase in Winter II Possession Limits Based on the Amount of Scup Rolled Over from Winter I to Winter II Period
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Initial Winter II Possession Limit                 Rollover from Winter I to Winter II            Increase in Initial Winter II Possession       Final Winter II Possession Limit after
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                     Limit                         Rollover from Winter I to Winter II
                                                                                                      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               lb                       kg                     lb                         kg                     lb                     kg                     lb                    kg
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2,000                            907              0-499,999                     0-227                  0                      0                      2,000                  907
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2,000                            907              500,000-999,999               227-454                1,500                  680                    3,500                  1,588
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2,000                            907              1,000,000-1,499,999           454-680                3,000                  1,361                  5,000                  2,268
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2,000                            907              1,500,000-1,999,999           680-907                4,500                  2,041                  6,500                  2,948
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2,000                            907              2,000,000-2,500,000           907-1,134              6,000                  2,722                  8,000                  3,629
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Black Sea Bass

    Amendment 12 to the FMP indicated that the black sea bass stock, 
which was determined by SARC 27 to be overfished in 1998, could be 
rebuilt to the target biomass within a 10-year period, i.e., by 2010. 
The current target exploitation rate is based on the current estimate 
of F<INF>MAX</INF>, or 0.33 (25.6 percent). The northern stock of black 
sea bass was last assessed at the 43\rd\ SAW in June 2006. The SARC 43 
Panel did not consider the stock assessment to provide an adequate 
basis to evaluate stock status against the biological reference points, 
but did not recommend any other reference points to replace them.
    The most recent Center spring survey results indicate that the 
exploitable biomass of black sea bass decreased in 2006. The 2006 
biomass index, i.e., the 3-year average exploitable biomass for 2005 
through 2007, is estimated to be 0.6 kg/tow, below the threshold 
biomass value of 0.976 kg/tow. Based on these results, if the 
biological reference points in the FMP are applied, black sea bass once 
again would be considered to be overfished.
    Because the estimate of exploitable biomass is based on a 3-year 
average, the actual estimate for 2007 will not be derived until the 
spring 2008 survey results are available; if it is 0.263 (3-year moving 
average for 2006), and assuming an exploitation rate of 21 percent in 
2003, the TAL associated with the target exploitation rate would be 
3.75 million

[[Page 64029]]

lb (1,701 mt). However, if the 2008 estimate is 0.328 (3-year moving 
average for 2005), the TAL associated with the target exploitation rate 
would be 4.68 million lb (2,123 mt). Given the uncertainty in the black 
sea bass survey estimates and the potential underestimation of the 2003 
exploitation rate (21 percent), the Monitoring Committee agreed with 
the Council staff recommendation to set a 1-year TAL of 4.22 million lb 
(1,914 mt). The Council and Board accepted the Monitoring Committee 
recommendation. This TAL would represent a 15.6-percent decrease from 
2007.
    NMFS proposes to implement a 2008 black sea bass TAL of 4.22 
million lb (1,194 mt), consistent with the Council and Board 
recommendations. The FMP specifies that the TAL associated with a given 
exploitation rate be allocated 49 percent to the commercial sector and 
51 percent to the recreational sector; therefore, the initial TAL would 
be allocated 2.07 million lb (939 mt) to the commercial sector and 2.15 
million lb (975 mt) to the recreational sector. The Council and Board 
also agreed to set aside 85,790 lb (39 mt) of the black sea bass TAL 
for research activities. After deducting the RSA the TAL would be 
divided into a commercial quota of 2,025,763 lb (919 mt) and a 
recreational harvest limit of 2,108,447 lb (956 mt), as specified in 
the FMP.

Classification

    Pursuant to section 304 (b)(1)(A) of the Magnuson-Stevens Act, the 
NMFS Assistant Administrator has determined that this proposed rule is 
consistent with the Summer Flounder, Scup, and Black Sea Bass FMP, 
other provisions of the Magnuson-Stevens Act, and other applicable law, 
subject to further consideration after public comment.
    These proposed specifications are exempt from review under 
Executive Order 12866.
    An IRFA was prepared, as required by section 603 of the Regulatory 
Flexibility Act (RFA). The IRFA describes the economic impact these 
proposed specifications, if adopted, would have on small entities. A 
description of the action, why it is being considered, and the legal 
basis for this action are contained in the preamble to this proposed 
rule. A copy of this analysis is available from NMFS (see ADDRESSES). A 
summary of the analysis follows.
    The economic analysis assessed the impacts of the various 
management alternatives. The no action alternative is defined as 
follows: (1) No proposed specifications for the 2008 summer flounder, 
scup, and black sea bass fisheries would be published; (2) the 
indefinite management measures (minimum mesh sizes, minimum sizes, 
possession limits, permit and reporting requirements, etc.) would 
remain unchanged; (3) there would be no quota set-aside allocated to 
research in 2008; (4) the existing gear restrictive areas would remain 
in place for 2008; and (5) there would be no specific cap on the 
allowable annual landings in these fisheries (i.e., there would be no 
quotas). Implementation of the no action alternative would be 
inconsistent with the goals and objectives of the FMP, its implementing 
regulations, and the Magnuson-Stevens Act. In addition, the no action 
alternative would substantially complicate the approved management 
program for these fisheries, and would very likely result in 
overfishing of the resources. Under the no action alternative, the 
fisheries would operate without an identified cap on allowable landings 
because the quotas implemented for 2007 expire on December 31, 2007, 
and there are no provisions to roll-over those quota provisions into 
2008 if specifications are not published for the year. Therefore, the 
no action alternative is not considered to be a reasonable alternative 
to the preferred action.
    The Council prepared economic analyses for Alternatives 1 through 
3. Alternative 1 consists of the harvest limits proposed by the Council 
and the Board for all three species. Alternative 1 contains the 
Monitoring Committee's recommended harvest limits for scup and black 
sea bass. Alternative 2 consists of the most restrictive quotas (i.e., 
lowest landings) considered by the Council and the Board for all of the 
species. Alternative 2 contains the harvest limit recommended by the 
Monitoring Committee for summer flounder. Alternative 3 consists of the 
status quo quotas, which were the least restrictive quotas (i.e., 
highest landings) considered by the Council and Board for all three 
species.
    Table 4 presents the 2008 initial TALs, RSA, commercial quotas 
adjusted for RSA, and preliminary recreational harvests for the 
fisheries under these three quota alternatives.

    Table 4. Comparison, in lb (mt), of the 2008 Summer Flounder, Scup, and Black Sea Bass Quota Alternatives
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                            Preliminary          Preliminary
                                     Initial TAL           RSA \2\      Adjusted Commercial      Recreational
                                                                              Quota\1\          Harvest Limit
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quota Alternative 1 (Council's Preferred)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Summer Flounder                 15.77 million(7,150)  233,192(106)      9.32 million(4,230)  6.21 million(2,820)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Scup                            7.34 million(3,330)   214,000(97)       5.30 million(2,400)  1.82 million(830)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Black Sea Bass                  4.22 million(1,910)   85,790(39)        2.03 million(920)    2.11 million(960)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quota Alternative 2 (Most Restrictive)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Summer Flounder                 11.64 million(5,280)  233,192(106)      6.84 million(3,100)  4.56 million(2,070)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Scup                            5.02 million(2,280)   151,000(68)       3.54 million(1,610)  1.33 million(600)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Black Sea Bass                  3.75 million(1,700)   85,790(39)        1.80 million(820)    1.87 million(850)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quota Alternative 3 (Status Quo-Least Restrictive)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Summer Flounder                  17.112               233,192(106)      10.13                6.75 million(3,060)
                                 million(7,760)                          million(4,590)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Scup                            12.00 million(5,440)  214,000(97)       8.94 million(4,060)  2.85 million(1,290)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[[Page 64030]]

 
Black Sea Bass                  5.00 million(2,270)   85,790(39)        2.41 million(1,090)  2.51 million(1,140)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Note that preliminary quotas are provisional and may change to account for overages of the 2007 quotas.
\2\ Conditionally approved RSA amount or 3 percent of the alternative's TAL, whichever is less.
Note: Metric tons are as converted from pounds as shown and are subject to rounding error.

    Table 5 presents the percent change associated with each of these 
commercial quota alternatives (adjusted for RSA) compared to the final 
adjusted quotas for 2007.

 Table 5. Percent Change Associated with 2008 Adjusted Commercial Quota Alternatives Compared to 2007 Commercial
                                                 Adjusted Quotas
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                         Total Aggregate Changes Including RSA
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                           Quota Alternative 3
               Species                   Quota Alternative 1      Alternative 2 (Most      (Least Restrictive/
                                         (Council Preferred)          Restrictive)             Status Quo)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Summer Flounder                        -7.8%                    -32.0%                   + 1.3%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Scup                                   -38.8%                   -58.2%                   + 1.3%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Black Sea Bass                         -15.6%                   -25.0%                   + less than 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The total gross revenue for the individual vessels that would be 
directly regulated by this action is less than $ 4.0 million each. All 
vessels that would be impacted by this proposed rulemaking are 
therefore considered to be small entities and, thus, there would be no 
disproportionate impacts between large and small entities as a result. 
The categories of small entities likely to be affected by this action 
include commercial and charter/party vessel owners holding an active 
Federal permit for summer flounder, scup, or black sea bass, as well as 
owners of vessels that fish for any of these species in state waters. 
The Council estimates that the proposed 2007 quotas could affect 2,253 
vessels that held a Federal summer flounder, scup, and/or black sea 
bass permit in 2006. However, the more immediate impact of this rule 
will likely be felt by the 903 vessels that actively participated in 
these fisheries (i.e., landed these species) in 2006.

Commercial Fishery Impacts

    The Council estimated the total revenues derived from all species 
landed by each vessel during calendar year 2007 to determine a vessel's 
dependence and revenue derived from a particular species. This estimate 
provided the base from which to compare the effects of the proposed 
quota changes from 2007 to 2008.
    Alternative 1 (Council's Preferred Measures): The analysis of the 
harvest limits in Alternative 1 indicated that these harvest levels 
would result in 2008 revenue losses, relative to 2007, of less than 5 
percent for 115 vessels and greater than or equal to 5 percent for 733 
vessels. More specifically, vessels are projected to incur revenue 
reductions as follows: Change of 5-9 percent, 374 vessels; 10-19 
percent, 249 vessels; 20-29 percent, 29 vessels; 30-39 percent, 29; 40-
49 percent, 19 vessels, and greater than or equal to 50 percent, 2 
vessels. Most commercial vessels showing revenue reduction of greater 
than 5 percent are concentrated in NJ, RI, NC, NY and MA.
    The Council also examined the level of ex-vessel revenues for the 
impacted vessels to assess further impacts the impacts of Alternative 1 
(Table 6).

                         Table 6. Comparison of Alternative 1 Impacts to Vessel Total Gross Sales by Revenue Reduction Category
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                        2007 Total Gross Sales (Ex-Vessel Revenues)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     Revenue Reduction Range                                              $1,000 or Less                                  $10,000 or Less
---------------------------------    No. of Vessels in   -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            (Percent)                      Range              No. of Vessels         Percent in Range         No. of Vessels         Percent in Range
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 to 9                            374                     149                     40                      63                      17
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10 to 19                          249                     82                      33                      138                     55
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
20 to 29                          60                      8                       13                      17                      28
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
30 to 39                          29                      8                       28                      16                      55
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
40 to 49                          19                      10                      53                      17                      89
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[[Page 64031]]

 
Greater than or equal to 50       2                       2                       100                     0                       0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                             733                     259                     35                      424                     58
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Based on the information in Table 6, the dependence on fishing for 
some of these vessels is likely small as 35 percent of vessels 
incurring revenue reductions of gross sales equal to or less than 
$1,000 and 58 percent of impacted vessels had gross sales of less than 
or equal to $10,000 for 2006.
    The Council also analyzed changes in total gross revenues that 
would occur as a result of the quota alternatives. Alternative 1 would 
decrease total revenues for summer flounder by approximately $0.84 
million, scup by $3.20 million, and black sea bass $0.88 million, 
relative to expected revenues earned from the 2007 quotas.
    The overall reduction in ex-vessel gross revenue associated with 
the potential changes in quotas in 2008 relative to the quotas 
implemented in 2007 is approximately $4.92 million (using 2006 ex-
vessel prices) under Alternative 1. Assuming that the decrease in total 
ex-vessel gross revenue associated with the proposed rule for each 
fishery is distributed equally among the vessels that landed those 
species in 2006 (the last full year of data availability), the average 
decrease in gross revenue per vessel associated with the preferred 
quota would be $1,143 for summer flounder and $3,197, $7,637 for scup, 
and $1,642 for black sea bass. The number of vessels landing summer 
flounder, scup, and black sea bass in 2006 was 735, 419, and 536, 
respectively.
     The predicted changes in ex-vessel gross revenues associated with 
the potential changes in quotas in 2008 versus 2007 assumed static 2006 
prices (summer flounder--$1.79/lb; scup--$0.89/lb; and black sea bass--
$2.50/lb). However, if prices for these species change as a consequence 
of changes in landings, then the associated revenue changes could be 
different than those estimated above, and could mitigate some of the 
revenue reductions associated with lower quantities of quota available 
under this alternative.
    Alternative 2 (Most Restrictive Measures): The analysis of the 
harvest limits of Alternative 2 indicated that all vessels would incur 
revenue losses equal to or greater than 5 percent. More specifically, 
vessels are projected to incur revenue reductions as follows: 10-19 
percent, 45 vessels; 20-29 percent, 292 vessels; 30-39 percent, 456 
vessels; 40-49 percent, 61 vessels; and greater or equal to 50 percent, 
41 vessels. Further examination shows that 314 of the impacted vessels 
(35 percent) had gross sales of $1,000 or less and 547 of the impacted 
vessels (61 percent) had gross sales of $10,000 or less, thus likely 
indicating that the dependence on these fisheries for some of these 
vessels is very small. Table 7 contains additional information on the 
specific impacts on gross sales under this alternative.

                         Table 7. Comparison of Alternative 2 Impacts to Vessel Total Gross Sales by Revenue Reduction Category
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                        2007 Total Gross Sales (Ex-Vessel Revenues)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     Revenue Reduction Range                                              $1,000 or Less                                  $10,000 or Less
---------------------------------    No. of Vessels in   -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            (Percent)                      Range              No. of Vessels         Percent in Range         No. of Vessels         Percent in Range
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10 to 19                          45                      17                      38                      33                      73
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
20 to 29                          292                     115                     39                      208                     71
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
30 to 39                          456                     157                     34                      258                     57
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
40 to 49                          69                      10                      14                      20                      29
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Greater than or equal to 50       41                      15                      37                      28                      68
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                             903                     314                     35                      547                     61
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    As in Alternative 1, most commercial vessels showing revenue 
reduction are concentrated in MA, RI, NY, NJ, and NC.
    Alternative 2 was estimated to decrease total summer flounder, 
scup, and black sea bass revenues by approximately $5.28 million, $4.77 
million and $1.45 million respectively, relative to expected revenues 
earned from the 2007 quotas. The overall reduction in ex-vessel gross 
revenue associated with the potential changes in quotas in 2008 versus 
2007 is approximately $11.50 million (in 2006 dollars) under 
Alternative 2. Assuming that the decrease in total ex-vessel gross 
revenue associated with the proposed

[[Page 64032]]

rule for each fishery is distributed equally among the vessels that 
landed those species in 2006 (the last full year of data availability), 
the average decrease in gross revenue per vessel associated with the 
Alternative 2 quota would be $7,184 for summer flounder, $11,384 for 
scup and $2,706 for black sea bass. The total average gross revenue 
reduction for vessels that land summer flounder, scup and black sea 
bass would then be $12,735.
    Alternative 3 (Status Quo/Least Restrictive Measures): Alternative 
3 was estimated to increase total summer flounder, scup, and black sea 
bass revenues by approximately $0.61, $0.04, and $0.08 million 
respectively, relative to expected revenues earned from the 2007 quotas 
(assuming the entire quotas are landed and ex-vessel prices previously 
outlined remain effective).
    The overall increase in ex-vessel gross revenue associated with the 
potential changes in quotas in 2008 versus 2007 is approximately $0.73 
million (in 2006 dollars) under Alternative 3. Assuming that the 
increase in total ex-vessel gross revenue associated with the proposed 
rule for each fishery is distributed equally among the vessels that 
landed those species in 2006 (the last full year of data availability), 
the average increase in gross revenue per vessel associated with the 
Alternative 3 quota would be $829 for summer flounder, $95 for scup and 
$149 for black sea bass. The total average gross revenue reduction for 
vessels that land all three species would then be $808.

Recreational Fishery Impacts

    For the analysis of the alternative recreational harvest limits, 
the 2008 recreational harvest limits were compared with the 2007 
recreational harvest limits and landings through 2006, the most recent 
year with complete recreational data. The 2008 specifications setting 
analysis conducted by Council staff is principally for commercial 
fisheries. As such, only general information related to the changes in 
recreational harvest limits are analyzed as part of the quota 
specification rulemaking. The effects of specific recreational 
management measures, including minimum fish sizes, possession limits, 
and fishing seasons for all three species will be analyzed by the 
Council when the Council and Board submit recommendations for the 2008 
recreational fisheries following the December 2007 Council meeting. At 
that time, more complete 2007 recreational fishery information will be 
available.
    Summer Flounder: The Alternative 1 recreational harvest limit 
(adjusted for RSA) of 6.21 million lb (2,817 mt), would be a 7-percent 
decrease from the 2007 recreational harvest limit of 6.84 million lb 
(3,104 mt) and a 46-percent reduction from the 2006 landings of 11.51 
million lb (5,221 mt). The Alternative 2 recreational harvest limit of 
4.56 million lb (2,068 mt) would be 32 percent lower than the 2007 
recreational harvest limit, and would represent a 60-percent decrease 
from 2006 recreational landings. The Alternative 3 (status quo) 
recreational harvest limit of 6.75 million lb (3,062 mt) would be a 
less than a 1-percent decrease from the 2007 recreational harvest limit 
(due to differences in the preliminary summer flounder RSA for the two 
years) and would represent a 41-percent decrease from 2006 recreational 
landings.
    If recreational landings are the same in 2008 as in 2007, the 
Alternative 1 (Council Preferred) recreational harvest limits will not 
constrain recreational landings in 2008. As such, it is likely that 
more restrictive limits (i.e., lower possession limits, greater minimum 
size limits, and/or shorter seasons) would be required to prevent 
anglers from exceeding the recreational harvest limit in 2008. It is 
expected that this alternative would likely decrease recreational 
satisfaction for the summer flounder recreational fishery, relative to 
the status quo alternative. At the present time, there is neither 
behavioral nor demand data available to estimate how sensitive party/
charter boat anglers might be to proposed fishing regulations. In the 
summer flounder fishery, there is no mechanism to deduct overages 
directly from the recreational harvest limit. Any overages must be 
addressed by way of adjustments to the management measures. While it is 
likely that proposed management measures may restrict the recreational 
fishery for 2008, and these measures may cause some decrease in 
recreational satisfaction (i.e., low bag limit, larger fish size or 
closed season), there is no indication that any of these measures may 
lead to a decline in the demand for party/charter boat trips. 
Currently, the market demand for this sector is relatively stable. 
Summer flounder recreational trips averaged 5.1 million for the 1991 to 
2006 period, ranging from 3.8 million in 1992 to 6.1 million in 2001. 
For the years 2004 through 2006, summer flounder recreational fishing 
trips were estimated at 5.1, 5.7, and 5.4 per year, respectively.
    Scup: Under Alternative 1, the scup recreational harvest limit 
would be 1.82 million lb (825 mt)), 34 percent below the 2007 
recreational harvest limit of 2.47 million lb (1,120 mt), and 38 
percent below the 2006 recreational landings of 2.95 million lb (1,338 
mt). The Alternative 2 scup recreational harvest limit of 1.33 million 
lb (603 mt) would be 52 percent less than the 2007 recreational harvest 
limit, and 55 percent below 2006 recreational landings. The Alternative 
3 scup recreational harvest limit of 2.85 million lb (1,293 mt) would 
be a 4-percent increase from the 2007 recreational harvest limit and 
would represent a 3-percent decrease from 2006 recreational landings.
    It is likely that more restrictive limits (i.e., lower possession 
limits, greater minimum size limits, and/or shorter seasons) with 
varying degrees of restrictions would be required under any scup 
alternative to prevent anglers from exceeding the recreational harvest 
limit in 2008. It is likely to decrease recreational satisfaction for 
the scup recreational fishery, relative to the status quo alternative. 
However, it is not expected that this will result in any substantive 
decreases in the demand for party/charter boat trips.
     Scup recreational trips have shown a slight upward trend from the 
early 1990s to the early 2000s, ranging from approximately 199,000 
trips in 1997 to 972,000 trips in 2003, with an average of 
approximately 454,000 trips per year for the 1991 through 2005 period. 
For 2004 and 2005, scup recreational fishing trips were estimated at 
approximately 568,000 and 458,000, respectively.
    Black Sea Bass: Under Alternative 1, the black sea bass 
recreational harvest limit would be 2.11 million lb (957 mt)), 15 
percent below the 2007 recreational harvest limit of 2.47 million lb 
(1,120 mt), and less than 1 percent above the 2006 recreational 
landings of 2.10 million lb (953 mt). The Alternative 2 recreational 
harvest limit of 1.87 million lb (848 mt) would be 24 percent less than 
the 2007 recreational harvest limit, and 11 percent below the 2006 
recreational landings. The Alternative 3 black sea bass recreational 
harvest limit of 2.51 million lb (1,139 mt) would be a 2-percent 
decrease from the 2007 recreational harvest limit and would represent a 
20-percent increase over 2006 recreational landings.
    Under Alternative 1, the black sea bass 2008 recreational harvest 
limit (adjusted for RSA) is 2.11 million lb (957 mt). However, if 
recreational landings are the same in 2007 as in 2006 (2.10 million lb; 
953 mt), the adjusted recreational harvest limit is expected to 
constrain recreational landings in 2008. As such, more restrictive 
limits (i.e., lower possession limits, greater minimum size limits, 
and/or shorter

[[Page 64033]]

seasons) may not be necessary to prevent anglers from exceeding this 
recreational harvest limit in 2008.
    Black sea bass recreational fishing trips have averaged 
approximately 247,000 per year for the 1991 through 2005 period, 
ranging from approximately 136,000 trips in 1999, to 311,000 trips in 
1997. In 2005, recreational trips for black sea bass numbered 
approximately 166,000, the third lowest value in the 1991 through 2005 
time series.
    In summary, it is unlikely that the any of the measures proposed 
would result in any substantive decreases in the demand for party/
charter boat trips. It is likely that party/charter anglers would 
target other species when faced with potential reductions in the amount 
of summer flounder, scup, and black sea bass that they are allowed to 
catch. The Council intends to recommend specific measures to attain the 
2008 summer flounder, scup, and black sea bass recreational harvest 
limit in December 2007, and will provide additional analysis of the 
measures upon submission of its recommendations in early 2008.

Research Set-Aside Impacts

    The Council analysis for 2008 RSA contains two alternatives: 
Alternative 1 (non-preferred) wherein no RSA would occur and 
Alternative 2 (Council preferred/status quo) wherein the Council 
specifies RSA for 2008. The Council has recommended a maximum of 3 
percent of the TALs for summer flounder, scup, and black sea bass may 
be set aside for research. Details on the three projects conditionally 
approved by NMFS are contained in the preamble to this rule. For 
analysis of the impacts of the two RSA alternatives, the RSA amounts 
are either the specific amounts requested by the conditionally approved 
2008 projects or 3 percent of the TAL, whichever is less.
    Under Alternative 1, no RSA would be deducted from the overall TAL 
and, as such, no downward adjustment to the TALs would occur. There 
would be no direct economic or social costs under the non-preferred 
Alternative 1, however collaborative efforts among the public, research 
institutions, and government aimed at broadening scientific knowledge 
of Mid-Atlantic species would cease under the RSA program. The nation 
would not receive the benefit of data or information that would 
otherwise be derived through the RSA program.
    Under the Council-preferred Alternative 2, RSA would be specified 
for each species. The effects of doing so are summarized, as follows:
    Summer Flounder: The commercial portion of the summer flounder RSA 
preliminary allocation in the proposed specifications, if made 
available to the commercial fishery, could be worth as much as $250,448 
dockside, based on a 2006 ex-vessel price of $1.79/lb. Assuming an 
equal reduction in fishing opportunity among all active vessels, this 
could result in a per-vessel potential revenue loss of approximately 
$341. Changes in the summer flounder recreational harvest limit as a 
result of the RSA are not expected to be significant as the deduction 
of RSA from the TAL. Under Alternative 3 (most restrictive TAL), a 
relatively marginal decrease in the recreational harvest limit from 
4.66 million lb (2,114 mt) to 4.56 million lb (2,068 mt) would occur 
(approximately 2 percent decrease). TAL Alternatives 1 and 3, would be 
decreased by slightly less than 2 percent and slightly more than 1 
percent, respectively. Because this is a marginal change, it is 
unlikely that the recreational possession, size, or seasonal limits 
would change as the result of the RSA allocation.
    Scup: The commercial scup RSA allocation, if made available to the 
commercial fishery, could be worth as much as $141,635 dockside for TAL 
Alternatives 1 and 3 which would permit the full amount requested 
(214,000 lb; 97 mt) because it is less than 3 percent of the respective 
alternatives TAL and $97,519 under Alternative 2 which is the most 
restrictive and, as such, would only permit 3 percent of the TAL 
(150,600 lb; 68 mt). These values are based on a 2006 ex-vessel price 
of $0.75/lb. Assuming an equal reduction in fishing opportunity for all 
active commercial vessels, this could result in a loss of potential 
revenue of approximately $338 per vessel under Alternatives 1 and 3 and 
$233 under Alternative 2. For the analyzed scup TAL alternatives, the 
changes in the recreational harvest limits are from 1.88 to 1.82 
million lb (852 to 826 mt; a 3.2-percent decrease) under Alternative 1, 
from 1.37 (621 mt) to 1.33 million lb (603 mt) (a 2.9-percent decrease) 
under Alternative 2, and from 2.90 (1,315 mt) to 2.85 million lb (1,293 
mt) (a 1.7-percent decrease) under Alternative 3. It is unlikely that 
scup recreational possession, size, or seasonal limits would change as 
the result of the RSA allocation.
    Black Sea Bass: The commercial portion of the black sea bass RSA, 
if made available to the commercial fishery, could be worth as much as 
$105,093 dockside, based on a 2006 ex-vessel price of $2.50/lb. 
Assuming an equal reduction in fishing opportunity for all active 
commercial vessels, this could result in a loss of approximately $196 
per vessel. For the analyzed back sea bass alternatives, the changes in 
the recreational harvest limits are from 2.15 (975 mt) to 2.11 million 
lb (957 mt) (a 1.9-percent decrease) under Alternative 1, from 1.91 
(866 mt) to 1.87 million lb (848 mt) (a 2.1-percent decrease) under 
Alternative 2, and from 2.55 (1,157 mt) to 2.51 million lb (1,139 mt) 
(a 1.6-percent decrease) under Alternative 3. It is unlikely that the 
black sea bass possession, size, or seasonal limits would change as the 
result of this RSA allocation.
    Overall, long-term benefits are expected as a result of the RSA 
program. The results of these projects will provide needed information 
on high-priority fisheries management issues related to Mid-Atlantic 
fisheries management. If the total amount of quota set-aside is not 
awarded for any of the three fisheries, the unused set-aside amount 
will be restored to the appropriate fishery's TAL. It should also be 
noted that fish harvested under the RSAs would be sold, and the profits 
would be used to offset the costs of research. As such, total gross 
revenue to the industry would not decrease if the RSAs are utilized.

Summary

    The proposed specifications represent lower 2008 TALs for summer 
flounder, scup, and black sea bass. The proposed specifications were 
chosen because they allow for the maximum level of commercial and 
recreational landings, while allowing the NMFS to meet its legal 
requirements under the Magnuson-Stevens Act while achieving the 
objectives of the FMP. The summer flounder TAL was chosen to allow for 
rebuilding of the stock by 2013 and was selected as a means to balance 
the social and economic concerns for the 2008 fishery with the need to 
select a measure that is more precautionary than the minimum 
requirements (i.e., at least 50-percent probability for success) to 
ensure that overfishing does not occur and that the effects of the 
retrospective patterns are mitigated. The scup TAL was selected as it 
complies with the fishing mortality objective outlined in the scup 
rebuilding plan of Amendment 14 to the FMP. Due to the level of 
uncertainty in the black sea bass stock assessment and to the recent 
stock indices, the black sea bass TAL was selected as a risk-averse 
management approach to ensure continued stock rebuilding. The proposed 
2008 adjusted commercial quotas for summer flounder, scup, and black 
sea bass are 4.8 percent, 40.4 percent, and 14.7

[[Page 64034]]

percent lower, respectively, relative to the adjusted quotas for year 
2007. The proposed recreational harvest limits (adjusted for RSA) would 
be 7.2-, 33.6-, and 14.6-percent lower than the adjusted recreational 
harvest limits for year 2007.
    There are no new reporting or recordkeeping requirements contained 
in any of the alternatives considered for this action.

    Dated: November 8, 2007.
John Oliver,
Deputy Assistant Administrator for Operations, National Marine 
Fisheries Service.
[FR Doc. 07-5647 Filed 11-8-07; 1:58 pm]
BILLING CODE 3510-22-S