NOS MODELING VISION: Individuals and communities 

nationwide understand and use reliable, accurate, and 

accessible predictions of coastal conditions

NOS MODELING 

STRATEGY 2023-2028
NOS MODELING 

STRATEGY 2023-2028

NOS MODELING STRATEGY 2023-2028 2

CASCADING HAZARDS EXAMPLE

Marine heatwaves can cause harmful 

algal blooms that contaminate crabs 

with levels of domoic acid that is unsafe 

for human consumption, delays West 

coast crab fishing activity from winter 

into spring, disrupts historically offset 

seasonal patterns of fishing and whale 

migration, and potentially leads to 

greater incidents of humpback whale 

entanglements in fishing gear.2

INTRODUCTION

Coastal communities need answers to critical questions about 

future water levels, flooding, and water quality on a momentby-moment to a multi-decadal basis and at every increment in 

between. Mounting threats and costs from extreme events and 

cascading hazards endanger the 42% of the U.S. population 

that calls coastal areas home as well as the 48%of the Nation’s 

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)1

 that is produced there. 

Moreover, aging and deteriorating coastal and inland 

infrastructure cannot accommodate the increasingly frequent 

and intense floods caused by sea-level rise, subsidence, and 

high-tide flooding. Any failures of these systems threaten fresh 

water supplies, transportation and energy systems, agricultural 

outputs, and other types of infrastructure that are not meant to 

be inundated, especially with salt water. 

Preparing for, and becoming resilient to, these threats require 

predictive capabilities to provide useful information across 

spatial and temporal scales—from the nearshore coastal 

waters to the global oceans and from days to decades. An 

effective coastal, ocean, and Great Lakes prediction capability 

will provide forecasts, hindcasts, projections, and reanalysis 

across these spatial and time scales to meet the current and 

emerging needs of decision makers at all levels while stoking 

collaboration across the scientific community. 

A COMPREHENSIVE COASTAL, OCEAN, 

AND GREAT LAKES FORECASTING SYSTEM

is required to answer key questions, such 

as: Where is the water? How much water is 

there? Is it safe to go to the beach? Is it safe 

to drink the water? Will the roads be flooded?

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NOS MODELING STRATEGY 2023-2028 3

NOAA’s National Ocean Service (NOS) is uniquely positioned to 

lead the development of such a coastal and ocean prediction 

capability for the Nation and to effectively deliver the range of 

applications and services needed to meet the threats facing 

impacted coastal communities along the U.S. coasts and the 

Great Lakes. With roots that go back to 1807, NOS is dedicated 

to providing science-based solutions through collaborative 

partnerships to address evolving economic, environmental, and 

social pressures on our ocean and coasts.3

However, NOS cannot do this alone; a collective effort is 

required inside and outside of the agency. Together, technical 

experts from across the federal agencies and academia and 

users from across sectors and coastal regions, will help NOS to 

provide answers to people in need at the moment they need 

them and in a format they can use. 

The plan that follows provides a strategic approach to 

improving NOS’ ability to simulate and predict coastal and 

ocean phenomena together with community partners across 

NOAA, the federal government, academia, and the private 

sector to build and advance models to issue reliable ocean 

predictions and address the needs of the public. 

NOS’S MODELING EFFORTS WILL 

ADVANCE ITS PRIORITIES of coastal 

resilience, conservation, and equity, and 

improved data access to enhance the 

scope and scale of the blue economy. 

These efforts will provide better 

models for:

■ Safe, efficient marine navigation; 

■ Human health protection;

■ Coastal resilience and risk 

reduction;

■ Improved maps and coastal 

management;

■ Hazardous spill response and 

search and rescue; and 

■ Coastal and marine living resource 

management in a changing climate.

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GOAL #1: 

Address User Needs through Sustained Community Engagement and Partnerships

Citizens, private enterprises, coastal communities, and 

other stakeholders require predictive information about 

our ocean and coasts to prepare for and respond to 

extreme events, plan infrastructure projects that ensure 

coastal resiliency, forecast for food production, and 

mitigate billion-dollar disasters. Consistent with NOAA’s 

Service Delivery Framework, this predictive information 

must be useful, usable, and used. NOS recognizes that the 

broader community—which includes every individual and 

organization from every sector, state, and nation—is needed 

both to provide input to NOS on their current and emerging 

needs and to co-produce with NOS the tools and services 

that will meet those needs.

NOS’ partners have critical capacity and capabilities 

for delivering predictive information about the nation’s 

coasts, oceans, and Great Lakes, which can be more fully 

addressed when we work together. To do this, NOS commits 

to sustaining predictable, coordinated, and transparent 

engagement and partnerships across the community 

including NOAA Line Offices, other federal agencies, state, 

local, and tribal governments, non-profits, academia, and 

private industry. 

Specifically, NOS will sponsor community modeling 

workshops and seminars, share model development and 

implementation plans, and grow a Community of Practice 

focused on fostering partnerships amongst the coastal 

modeling community, ensuring NOS’ operational modeling 

code and predictive information are accessible via shared 

cyberinfrastructure, and collaborating on projects that 

advance the mission needs of NOS and its community 

of partners. 

NOS is dedicated to advancing equity as an integrated part of 

developing these models. To that end, NOS will work to identify 

and address the unique needs of historically underserved 

and underrepresented communities. Additionally, NOS will 

ensure that it engages with businesses and other organizations 

to facilitate the use of its models in third party products and 

services that generate economic value for the blue economy 

and address societal challenges.

NOAA engagement. Image Credit: NOAA.

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To facilitate collaboration, NOS will be transparent by 

publicly communicating our intentions, capabilities, and 

gaps via an annual guidance memorandum and will 

encourage other federal modeling entities to do the same. 

As a result, partners will be able to plan for transitions, 

follow-on ideas, and innovations, and develop alternatives 

when needed. Additionally, NOS will advise and/or 

participate in scientific and engineering challenges that 

are designed to catalyze innovation for ocean and coastal 

user needs.

GOAL #1 OBJECTIVES:

1.1 Adopt the NOAA Service Delivery Framework and 

Implementation Approach.

1.2 Foster and productively participate in a robust 

community dedicated to meeting the needs of 

predictive information for our ocean and coasts.

1.3 Address the unique needs of underserved and 

vulnerable communities.

1.4 Highlight opportunities for the private and academic 

sectors by issuing an annual guidance memorandum 

of what NOS is and is not doing around coastal, ocean, 

and Great Lakes modeling.

NOS will be successfully addressing user needs through 

sustained community engagement and partnerships when:

■ User needs are incorporated in NOS modeling plans in 

an ongoing and iterative process;

■ The community knows about NOS’ plans and is 

empowered to act in support of them;

■ NOS has annually published a list of partners and their 

accountabilities;

■ Qualitative and quantitative measures for enduring 

and reliable partner relationships are adopted and 

employed;

■ Points of contact from NOS Program Offices are 

identified for modeling, communication, and 

collaboration;

■ NOS Model Advisory Board is expanded to include 

more NOS office representatives; and

■ NOS develops scientifically and technically diverse 

working groups.

Within hours of Sandy’s departure, NOAA deployed research vessel Bay Hydro II to survey ship channels in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia, speeding the 

resumption of shipping and naval operations. Image Credit: NOAA.

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NOS MODELING STRATEGY 2023-2028 6

Global ESTOFS NOAA’s Global Extratropical Storm and Tide Model. 

Image credit: NOAA and UND, used with permission. 

GOAL #2: 

Develop Ocean and Coastal Models through Community Modeling 

Users of NOS’ coastal, ocean, and Great Lakes models 

and information have a wide variety of needs for predictive 

information about our oceans and coasts. Meeting these 

needs demands a collection of models that are flexible, 

multipurpose, and tailorable to specific geographic or 

temporal scales. Flexible, multipurpose models also enable 

a transition from information provided on a temporary basis 

(e.g., research) to information provided on a consistent, 

predictable cadence basis (e.g., operational or application). 

By incorporating circulation information and land and water 

reference systems into models, NOS will provide usable, 

useful, and accessible information related to sea level 

rise, water quantity, and water quality. The model outputs 

will better inform decisions around public health, climate 

adaptation and resilience, and ecological management.

Like other software, models are developed in a collaborative 

and iterative manner. They require performance evaluations 

and feedback to improve from one version to the next. 

This means that the entire community must have a shared 

understanding of the model as well as its purpose and likely 

life cycle, including anticipated transitions (e.g., via quarterly 

updates to the NOS modeling website). 

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GOAL #2 OBJECTIVES:

2.1 Clarify which models are needed for what purposes, 

and how they will be developed and operated by NOS, 

including any anticipated transitions.

2.2 Detail which models NOS will not develop or operate.

2.3 Participate actively as a community member by 

presenting the community with opportunities to 

provide feedback on NOS models, and offering 

feedback on models not developed by NOS.

2.4 Support and conform to the Unified Forecast System 

(UFS) Strategic Plan, Earth Prediction Innovation 

Center (EPIC) Strategic Plan,Department of Commerce 

(DOC) Geospatial Strategy, NOAA Environmental 

Data Management Framework, and community 

model development.

2.5 Adhere to modern software management principles 

(e.g.,maintain a code repository that has the 

latest version, clean, well-organized, dynamic 

documentation, feature development branches, and 

active and well-defined code management rules, 

standards, and practices).

2.6 Ensure that the products and data derived from NOS 

modeling systems are openly available and consistent 

with F.A.I.R. principles. 

2.7 Develop modeling products and services consistent 

with the National Spatial Reference System (NSRS) for 

which NOS has a primary national responsibility.

2.8 Confer with experts from other parts of NOS, NOAA, 

and other government agencies to inform the modeling 

approach and develop value-added products.

2.9 Identify and address the unique needs of 

underserved communities.

NOS will be successfully developing coastal, ocean, and 

Great Lakes models through community modeling when 

NOS has:

■ Reduced the time required to develop, test, and 

deploy operational model based products;

■ Expanded the vibrant, open source model 

development community;

■ Implemented open governance structure and strategic 

goals for community modeling systems;

■ Hosted annual opportunities for community exchange 

of advances in coastal and ocean modeling;

■ Facilitated modelers across NOS, academia, and 

industry as they worked collaboratively to develop 

applications and models for operational use through 

iterative development and improvements throughout a 

model’s life cycle;

■ Elicited and incorporated community feedback to 

improve applications and models for operational use; 

■ Developed and maintained multipurpose coastal, 

ocean, and Great Lakes component modeling 

systems; and

■ Ensured that modeling conforms to DOC/NOAA 

guidance and is compliant with the UFS.

Muskegon Buoy Deployment, July 2020. Taken during the deployment of M20, a NOAA GLERL Real-time Coastal Observation Network (ReCON) buoy, off 

the coast of Muskegon, MI. NOAA GLERL’s ReCON buoys continuously collect meteorological data and provide sub-surface measurements of chemical, 

biological, and physical parameters. Credit: NOAA GLERL, 7/30/20

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GOAL #3:

Issue National Ocean Service Forecasts through Accurate and Reliable 

Operational Models

NOS’ collection of coastal, ocean, and Great Lakes models 

will be designed to provide nowcasts, forecasts, hindcasts, 

reanalysis, and seasonal/climate-scale projections that— 

much like a set of building-block toys, can be combined 

in numerous ways to produce a variety of results. This 

coherent, national framework of models — also known 

as an operational forecast system — will be able to scale 

consistently from the macro- to the micro-levels. NOS will 

determine the geographic and temporal scales for the 

operational forecast system based on user needs and NOS’ 

mission, mandates, priorities, and other factors. 

A comprehensive and reliable forecast system, must be:

■ Easily inter-related to ensure scalability and consistency 

across the entire country from coast to coast and 

varying intervals of time; 

■ Comparable by applying a consistent framework 

for observations and providing sufficient metadata 

regarding the spatial orientation; and

■ Aligned to international standards and consistent with 

tools and operational forecast system predictions from 

other countries. 

GOAL #3 OBJECTIVES:

3.1 Adopt the framework defined by the UFS system 

architecture. 

3.2 Ensure model output is widely available and compliant 

with pertinent international data standards.

3.3 Establish needed resources and personnel.

3.4 Identify and establish collaborations with other NOAA 

Line Offices.

NOS will be successfully issuing forecasts and warnings 

through accurate and reliable operational models when:

■ A national coastal, ocean, and Great Lakes modeling 

system supports decision-making at the appropriate 

geographic and temporal scales is delivered;

■ The standards for data conform with internationally 

accepted norms; 

■ The comparison of various operational forecast system 

model outputs can be easily accomplished using tools 

readily available to the community; and

■ Community members, beyond the NOS modeling 

community, incorporate operational forecast system 

outputs into their decision making tools. 

Typical hourly forecasts of different oceanographic conditions for Chesapeake Bay. Image credit: NOAA

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THE WAY FORWARD

To realize the NOS Modeling Vision—where individuals 

and communities nationwide understand and use reliable, 

accurate, and accessible predictions of coastal conditions—

the entire modeling community must combine their 

formidable skills and talents in a stable, predictable, and 

reliable way. Each NOS Program Office will help to establish 

a foundation by coordinating to problem-solve, testing ideas 

and providing feedback, and engaging with their partners 

and networks in service of this bigger goal. 

Each NOS Program Office will provide: 

1. Point(s) of contact to speak authoritatively on models, 

requirements, and user needs;

2. Coordination on modeling funding for public calls and 

budget initiatives;

3. Coordination on modeling implementations;

4. Communication of priorities and requirements;

5. Coordination of model system maintenance; and 

6. Support of models that are consistent with UFS

The NOS Modeling Strategy will be successfully 

implemented when:

■ User needs that are known and met;

■ The external community knows NOS’ plans and is 

empowered to act;

■ The time required to develop, test, and deploy 

operational-model-based products is decreased; and

■ National coastal, ocean, and Great Lakes modeling 

system that supports decision-making at the 

appropriate geographical and temporal scales.

Biscayne Bay. Image Credit: NOAA.

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NOS MODELING STRATEGY 2023-2028 10

Front Cover and Page 9. 

Biscayne Bay. Image Credit: NOAA. 

Page 2. 

A beautiful sunset shot in Schoodic, 

Maine. Image Credit: NOAA. 

Page 2. 

2017 Western Lake Erie harmful 

algal bloom. Image Credit: NOAA. 

Page 2.

Road closed due to flooding. Image 

credit: NOAA

Page 3. 

A beautiful coral reef. Image credit: 

NOAA

Page 3. 

A magnificent photo of sea, swell, 

sky, a rock cliff, and a monk seal 

swimming over a coral reef bottom. 

Image credit: NOAA

Page 4. 

NOAA engagement. Image Credit: 

NOAA.

Page 5.

Within hours of Sandy’s departure, 

NOAA deployed research vessel 

Bay Hydro II to survey ship 

channels in the Hampton Roads 

area of Virginia, speeding the 

resumption of shipping and naval 

operations. Image Credit: NOAA.

Page 6.

Global ESTOFS NOAA’s Global 

Extratropical Storm and Tide Model. 

Image credit: NOAA and UND, used 

with permission. 

Page 7.

Muskegon Buoy Deployment, 

July 2020. Credit: NOAA GLERL, 

7/30/20

Page 8. 

Typical hourly forecasts of different 

oceanographic conditions for 

Chesapeake Bay. Image credit: 

NOAA

APPENDIX B. Photo Credits

APPENDIX A. References

1. https://aambpublicoceanservice.blob.core.windows.net/oceanserviceprod/facts/coastal-population-report.pdf.

2. NOAA Weather, Water, and Climate Strategy: FY23-27

3. NOS Mission Statement

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