Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States | 64

Section 7: References

Bamber, J.L. and W.P. Aspinall, 2013: An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice 

sheets. Nature Climate Change, 3 (4), 424–427. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1778

Bamber, J.L., M. Oppenheimer, R.E. Kopp, W.P. Aspinall, and R.M. Cooke, 2019: Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 

of the United States of America, 116 (23), 11195–11200. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1817205116

Baranes, H.E., J.D. Woodruff, S.A. Talke, R.E. Kopp, R.D. Ray, and R.M. DeConto, 2020: Tidally driven interannual variation in extreme sea level frequencies in the Gulf of Maine. Journal of Geophysical Research: 

Oceans, 125 (10), e2020JC016291. 

http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016291

Barnard, P.L., L.H. Erikson, A.C. Foxgrover, J.A. Finzi Hart, P. Limber, A.C. O’Neill, M. van Ormondt, S. Vitousek, 

N. Wood, M.K. Hayden, and J.M. Jones, 2019: Dynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal 

impacts of climate change. Scientific reports, 9 (1), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-40742-z

Befus, K.M., P.L. Barnard, D.J. Hoover, J.A. Finzi Hart, and C.I. Voss, 2020: Increasing threat of coastal groundwater hazards from sea-level rise in California. Nature Climate Change, 10 (10), 946–952. 

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0874-1

Bekaert, D.P.S., B.D. Hamlington, B. Buzzanga, and C.E. Jones, 2017: Spaceborne synthetic aperture radar 

survey of subsidence in Hampton Roads, Virginia (USA). Scientific Reports, 7 (1), 1–9. 

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-15309-5

Bekaert, D.P.S., C.E. Jones, K. An, and M.-H. Huang, 2019: Exploiting UAVSAR for a comprehensive analysis 

of subsidence in the Sacramento Delta. Remote Sensing of Environment, 220, 124–134. 

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2018.10.023

Bloemen, P., T. Reeder, C. Zevenbergen, J. Rijke, and A. Kingsborough, 2018: Lessons learned from applying adaptation pathways in flood risk management and challenges for the further development of this 

approach. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 23 (7), 1083–1108. 

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-017-9773-9

Bodnar, A.N., 1981: Estimating Accuracies of Tidal Datums from Short Term Observations. Technical Report 

NOS CO-OPS 077. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, Center 

for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, Silver Spring, MD, 40 pp. 

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/NOAA_Technical_Report_NOS_COOPS_077.pdf

Boening, C., J.K. Willis, F.W. Landerer, R.S. Nerem, and J. Fasullo, 2012: The 2011 La Niña: So strong, the 

oceans fell. Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (19). https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053055

Bos, M.S., R.M.S. Fernandes, S.D.P. Williams, and L. Bastos, 2013: Fast error analysis of continuous GNSS 

observations with missing data. Journal of Geodesy, 87 (4), 351–360. 

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00190-012-0605-0

Bos, M.S., S.D.P. Williams, I.B. Araújo, and L. Bastos, 2014: The effect of temporal correlated noise on the sea 

level rate and acceleration uncertainty. Geophysical Journal International, 196 (3), 1423–1430. 

http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggt481

Bromirski, P.D., A.J. Miller, R.E. Flick, and G. Auad, 2011: Dynamical suppression of sea level rise along the Pacific coast of North America: Indications for imminent acceleration. Journal of Geophysical Research, 

116, C07005. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010jc006759
Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States | 65

Buchanan, M.K., M. Oppenheimer, and R.E. Kopp, 2017: Amplification of flood frequencies with local sea level 

rise and emerging flood regimes. Environmental Research Letters, 12 (6), 064009.

https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6cb3

Buzzanga, B., D.P.S. Bekaert, B.D. Hamlington, and S.S. Sangha, 2020: Toward sustained monitoring of subsidence at the coast using InSAR and GPS: An application in Hampton Roads, Virginia. Geophysical 

Research Letters, 47 (18), e2020GL090013. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090013

Calafat, F.M., D.P. Chambers, and M.N. Tsimplis, 2012: Mechanisms of decadal sea level variability in the eastern North Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 117, C09022. 

https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JC008285

Calafat, F.M. and M. Marcos, 2020: Probabilistic reanalysis of storm surge extremes in Europe. Proceedings 

of the National Academy of Sciences, 117 (4), 1877–1883. 

http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1913049117

CCRM, 2019: Recommendations for Sea Level Rise Projections: A Report for the Governor’s Coastal Climate Resiliency Plan. Center for Coastal Resources Management, Virginia institute of Marine Science, 

Gloucester Point, VA, 6 pp. 

https://www.naturalresources.virginia.gov/media/governorvirginiagov/secretary-of-natural-resources/

images/1c.-Sea-level-rise-projections-for-Virginia-planning-purposes-(2)-FINAL-10_31.pdf

Chao, B.F., Y.-H. Wu, and Y.S. Li, 2008: Impact of artificial reservoir water impoundment on global sea level. 

Science, 320 (5873), 212–214. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1154580

Church, J.A., P.U. Clark, A. Cazenave, J.M. Gregory, S. Jevrejeva, A. Levermann, M.A. Merrifield, G.A. Milne, 

R.S. Nerem, P.D. Nunn, A.J. Payne, W.T. Pfeffer, D. Stammer and A.S. Unnikrishnan, 2013: Sea Level 

Change. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to

the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, 

G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA 

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter13_FINAL.pdf

Coles, S., 2001: An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values. Springer-Verlag, London, 224 pp.

Coles, S.G., and M.J. Dixon, 1999: Likelihood-based inference for extreme value models. Extremes, 2, 5–23. 

https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1009905222644

Cooley, D., 2013: Return periods and return levels under climate change. In: Extremes in a Changing Climate. 

AghaKouchak, A., D. Easterling, K. Hsu, S. Schubert, and S. Sorooshian, Eds. Springer, Dordrecht, Netherlands, 97–114.

Dalrymple, T. (1960). Flood Frequency Analyses, Manual of Hydrology: Part 3. U.S. Geological Survey 

Water-Supply Paper 1543-A. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 86 pp. https://doi.org/10.3133/wsp1543A

Dangendorf, S., C. Hay, F.M. Calafat, M. Marcos, C.G. Piecuch, K. Berk, and J. Jensen, 2019: Persistent acceleration in global sea-level rise since the 1960s. Nature Climate Change, 9 (9), 705–710. 

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0531-8

DeConto, R.M., D. Pollard, R.B. Alley, I. Velicogna, E. Gasson, N. Gomez, S. Sadai, A. Condron, D.M. Gilford, 

E.L. Ashe, R.E. Kopp, D. Li, and A. Dutton, 2021: The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise 

from Antarctica. Nature, 593 (7857), 83–89. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03427-0

Dokka, R.K., 2011: The role of deep processes in late 20th century subsidence of New Orleans and coastal 

areas of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. Journal of Geophysical Research, 116, B06403. 

https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JB008008
Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States | 66

Edwards, T.L., S. Nowicki, B. Marzeion, R. Hock, H. Goelzer, H. Seroussi, N.C. Jourdain,D.A. Slater, 

F.E. Turner, C.J. Smith, C.M. McKenna, E. Simon, A. Abe-Ouchi, J.M. Gregory, E. Larour, W.H. Lipscomb, A.J. Payne, A. Shepherd, C. Agosta, P. Alexander, T. Albrecht, B. Anderson, X. Asay-Davis, 

A. Aschwanden, A. Barthel, A. Bliss, R. Calov, C. Chambers, N. Champollion, Y. Choi, R. Cullather, J. Cuzzone, C. Dumas, D. Felikson, X. Fettweis, K. Fujita, B.K. Galton-Fenzi, R. Gladstone, N.R. 

Golledge, R. Greve, T. Hattermann, M.J. Hoffman, A. Humbert, M. Huss, P. Huybrechts, W. Immerzeel, T. Kleiner, P. Kraaijenbrink, S. Le clec’h, V. Lee, G.R. Leguy, C.M. Little, D.P. Lowry, J.-H. Malles, 

D.F. Martin, F. Maussion, M. Morlighem, J.F. O’Neill, I. Nias, F. Pattyn, T. Pelle, S.F. Price, A. Quiquet, 

V. Radić, R. Reese, D.R. Rounce, M. Rückamp, A. Sakai, C. Shafer, N.-J. Schlegel, S. Shannon, R.S. 

Smith, F. Straneo, S. Sun, L. Tarasov, L.D. Trusel, J. Van Breedam, R. van de Wal, M. van den Broeke, 

R. Winkelmann, H. Zekollari, C. Zhao, T. Zhang, and T. Zwinger, 2021: Projected land ice contributions 

to twenty-first-century sea level rise. Nature, 593 (7857), 74–82. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-

03302-y

Eggleston, J. and J. Pope, 2013: Land Subsidence and Relative Sea-Level Rise in the Southern Chesapeake 

Bay Region. Circular 1392. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 30 pp., http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/cir1392

EPA, 1995a: Combined Sewer Overflows: Guidance for Long-Term Control Plan. EPA/832-B-95-002. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Wastewater Management, Washington, DC, 201 pp. 

https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2015-10/documents/owm0272_0.pdf

EPA, 1995b: Combined Sewer Overflows: Guidance for Nine Minimum Controls. EPA 832-B-95-003. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Wastewater Management, Washington, DC, 69 pp. 

https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2015-10/documents/owm0030_2.pdf

Farrell, W.E. and J.A. Clark, 1976: On postglacial sea level. Geophysical Journal International, 46 (3), 

647–667. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.1976.tb01252.x.

Fasullo, J. T., Boening, C., Landerer, F. W., & Nerem, R. S. (2013). Australia’s unique influence on global sea 

level in 2010–2011. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (16), 4368–4373. 

https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50834

Fasullo, J.T. and R.S. Nerem, 2018: Altimeter-era emergence of the patterns of forced sea-level rise in climate 

models and implications for the future. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115 (51), 

12944–12949. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1813233115

FEMA, 2016a: Guidance for Flood Risk Analysis Mapping: Coastal Flood Frequency and Extreme Value Analysis. Guidance Document 76. Federal Emergency Management Agency, Hyattsville, MD, 22 pp. 

https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/2020-02/Coastal_Flood_Frequency_and_Extreme_Value_

Analysis_Guidance_Nov_2016.pdf

FEMA, 2016b: Guidance for Flood Risk Analysis Mapping: Statistical Simulation Methods. Guidance Document 77. Federal Emergency Management Agency, Hyattsville, MD, 37 pp. https://www.fema.gov/sites/

default/files/documents/fema_coastal-statistical-simulation-methods_nov-2016.pdf

Fox-Kemper, B., H.T. Hewitt, C. Xiao, G. Aðalgeirsdóttir, S.S. Drijfhout, T.L. Edwards, N.R. Golledge, M. Hemer, R.E. Kopp, G. Krinner, A. Mix, D. Notz, S. Nowicki, I.S. Nurhati, L. Ruiz, J.-B. Sallée, A.B.A. Slangen, 

and Y. Yu, 2021: Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical 

Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [MassonDelmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. 

Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, 

T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. 

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/

Frau, R., M. Andreewsky, and P. Bernardara, 2018: The use of historical information for regional frequency 

analysis of extreme skew surge. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 18 (3), 949–962. 

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-949-2018
Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States | 67

Frederikse, T., K. Simon, C.A. Katsman, and R. Riva, 2017: The sea-level budget along the Northwest Atlantic 

coast: GIA, mass changes, and large-scale ocean dynamics. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 

122, 5486–5501. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC012699

Frederikse, T., F. Landerer, L. Caron, S. Adhikari, D. Parkes, V.W. Humphrey, S. Dangendorf, P. Hogarth, 

L. Zanna, L. Cheng, and Y.-H. Wu, 2020: The causes of sea-level rise since 1900. Nature, 584 (7821), 

393–397. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2591-3

Fu, X., 2020: Measuring local sea-level rise adaptation and adaptive capacity: A national survey in the United 

States. Cities, 102, 102717. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2020.102717.

Garner, G.G., T. Hermans, R.E. Kopp, A.B.A. Slangen, T.L. Edwards, A. Levermann, S. Nowikci, M.D. Palmer, 

C. Smith, B. Fox-Kemper, H.T. Hewitt, C. Xiao, G. Aðalgeirsdóttir, S.S. Drijfhout, T.L. Edwards

N.R. Golledge, M. Hemer, R.E. Kopp, G. Krinner, A. Mix, D. Notz, S. Nowicki, I. S. Nurhati, L. Ruiz, 

J-B. Sallée, Y. Yu, L. Hua, T. Palmer, and B. Pearson, 2021. IPCC AR6 Sea-Level Rise Projections. Version 20210809. PO.DAAC, CA, USA. Dataset accessed [2021-09-01

https://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/announcements/2021-08-09-Sea-level-projections-from-the-IPCC-6th

Gill, S., G. Hovis, K. Kriner, and M. Michalski, 2014: Implementation of Procedures for Computation of Tidal 

Datums in Areas with Anomalous Trends of Relative Mean Sea Level. NOAA Technical Report NOS COOPS 068. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, 

MD, 58 pp. 

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/NOAA_Technical_Report_NOS_COOPS_68.pdf

Guza, R.T. and E.B. Thornton, 1982: Swash oscillations on a natural beach. Journal of Geophysical Research, 

87 (C1), 483–491. https://doi.org/10.1029/JC087iC01p00483

Haasnoot, M., J.H. Kwakkel, W.E. Walker, and J. ter Maat, 2013: Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world. Global Environmental Change, 23 (2), 

485–498. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.12.006

Haasnoot, M., S. Brown, P. Scussolini, J.A. Jimenez, A.T. Vafeidis, and R.J. Nicholls, 2019: Generic adaptation pathways for coastal archetypes under uncertain sea-level rise. Environmental Research 

Communications, 1 (7), 071006. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab1871

Habel, S., C.H. Fletcher, T.R. Anderson, and P.R. Thompson, 2020: Sea-level rise induced multi-mechanism 

flooding and contribution to urban infrastructure failure. Scientific Reports, 10 (1), 3796. 

http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-60762-4

Hall, J.A., S. Gill, J. Obeysekera, W. Sweet, K. Knuuti, and J. Marburger, 2016: Regional Sea Level Scenarios 

for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the Uncertainty of Future Sea Level Change and Extreme Water Levels for Department of Defense Coastal Sites Worldwide. U.S. Department of Defense, Strategic 

Environmental Research and Development Program, Alexandria, VA, 224 pp. 

https://climateandsecurity.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/regional-sea-level-scenarios-for-coastal-risk-management_managing-uncertainty-of-future-sea-level-change-and-extreme-water-levels-fordepartment-of-defense.pdf

Hall, J.W., H. Harvey, and L.J. Manning, 2019: Adaptation thresholds and pathways for tidal flood risk management in London. Climate Risk Management, 24, 42–58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.04.001
Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States | 68

Hamlington, B.D., A.S. Gardner, E. Ivins, J.T.M. Lenaerts, J.T. Reager, D.S. Trossman, E.D. Zaron, S. Adhikari, 

A. Arendt, A. Aschwanden, B.D. Beckley, D.P.S. Bekaert, G. Blewitt, L. Caron, D.P. Chambers, 

H.A. Chandanpurkar, K. Christianson, B. Csatho, R.I. Cullather, R.M. DeConto, J.T. Fasullo, T. Frederikse, 

J.T. Freymueller, D.M. Gilford, M. Girotto, W.C. Hammond, R. Hock, N. Holschuh, R.E. Kopp, F. Landerer, 

E. Larour, D. Menemenlis, M. Merrifield, J.X. Mitrovica, R.S. Nerem, I.J. Nias, V. Nieves, S. Nowicki, 

K. Pangaluru, C.G. Piecuch, R.D. Ray, D.R. Rounce, N.-J. Schlegel, H. Seroussi, M. Shirzaei, W.V. Sweet, 

I. Velicogna, N. Vinogradova, T. Wahl, D.N. Wiese, and M.J. Willis, 2020a: Understanding of contemporary regional sea-level change and the implications for the future. Reviews of Geophysics, 58 (3), 

e2019RG000672. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000672

Hamlington, B.D., C.G. Piecuch, J.T. Reager, H. Chandanpurkar, T. Frederikse, R.S. Nerem, J.T. Fasullo, and 

S.-H. Cheon, 2020b: Origin of interannual variability in global mean sea level. Proceedings of the 

National Academy of Sciences, 117 (25), 13983. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1922190117

Hamlington, B.D., T. Frederikse, P.R. Thompson, J.K. Willis, R.S. Nerem, and J.T. Fasullo, 2021: Past, present, 

and future Pacific sea-level change. Earth’s Future, 9 (4), e2020EF001839. 

https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001839

Hammond, W.C., G. Blewitt, C. Kreemer, and R.S. Nerem, 2021: GPS imaging of global vertical land motion 

for studies of sea level rise. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 126 (7), e2021JB022355. 

https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JB022355

Hawley, W.B., C.C. Hay, J.X. Mitrovica, and R.E. Kopp., 2020: A spatially variable time series of sea level 

change due to artificial water impoundment. Earth’s Future, 8 (7), e2020EF001497. 

https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001497

Hemer, Mark A., Y. Fan, N. Mori, A. Semedo, and X.L. Wang, 2013: Projected changes in wave climate from a 

multi-model ensemble. Nature Climate Change, 3 (5), 471–476. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1791

Hinkel, J., J.C.J.H. Aerts, S. Brown, J.A. Jiménez, D. Lincke, R.J. Nicholls, P. Scussolini, A. Sanchez-Arcilla, 

A. Vafeidis, and K.A. Addo, 2018: The ability of societies to adapt to twenty-first-century sea-level rise. 

Nature Climate Change, 8 (7), 570–578. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0176-z

Hosking, J.R.M. and J. R. Wallis, 1997: Regional Frequency Analysis: An Approach Based on L-Moments. 

Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K, 224 pp.

IPCC, 2021a: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the 

Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, 

V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, 

M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. 

Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/

IPCC, 2021b: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution 

of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

[MassonDelmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, 

M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, 

R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/

Karegar, M.A., T.H. Dixon, and S.E. Engelhart, 2016: Subsidence along the Atlantic Coast of North America: 

Insights from GPS and late Holocene relative sea level data. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 3126–

3133. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068015

King, D., D. Schrag, Z. Dadi, Q. Ye, and A. Gosh, 2015: Climate Change: A Risk Assessment. Hynard, 

J. and T. Rodger, Eds. Centre for Science and Policy, Cambridge, UK, 154 pp. 

www.csap.cam.ac.uk/projects/climate-change-risk-assessment/
Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States | 69

Kirwan, M.L. and K.B. Gedan, 2019: Sea-level driven land conversion and the formation of ghost forests. 

Nature Climate Change, 9 (6), 450–457. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0488-7

Konikow, L.F., 2011: Contribution of global groundwater depletion since 1900 to sea-level rise. Geophysical 

Research Letters, 38 (17). https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048604

Kopp, R.E., R.M. Horton, C.M. Little, J.X. Mitrovica, M. Oppenheimer, D.J. Rasmussen, B.H. Strauss, and 

C. Tebaldi, 2014: Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tidegauge sites. Earth’s Future, 2 (8), 383–406. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014EF000239

Kopp, R.E., R.M. DeConto, D.A. Bader, C.C. Hay, R.M. Horton, S. Kulp, M. Oppenheimer, D. Pollard, and 

B.H. Strauss, 2017: Evolving understanding of Antarctic ice-sheet physics and ambiguity in probabilistic 

sea-level projections.” Earth’s Future, 5 (12), 1217–1233. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000663

Kopp, R.E., E.A. Gilmore, C.M. Little, J. Lorenzo-Trueba, V.C. Ramenzoni, and W.V. Sweet, 2019: Usable 

science for managing the risks of sea-level rise. Earth’s Future, 7, 1235–1269. 

https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001145

Krasting, J.P., J.P. Dunne, R.J. Stouffer, and R.W. Hallberg, 2016: Enhanced Atlantic sea-level rise relative to 

the Pacific under high carbon emission rates. Nature Geoscience, 9 (3), 210–214. 

http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2641

Langbein W.B., 1949: Annual floods and the partial-duration flood series. Eos, Transactions American 

Geophysical Union, 30 (6), 879–881. https://doi.org/10.1029/TR030i006p00879

Larsen, C.F., R.J. Motyka, J.T. Freymueller, K.A. Echelmeyer, and E.R. Ivins, 2004: Rapid uplift of southern 

Alaska caused by recent ice loss. Geophysical Journal International, 158 (3), 1118–1133. 

http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2004.02356.

Levermann, A., R. Winkelmann, T. Albrecht, H. Goelzer, N.R. Golledge, R. Greve, P. Huybrechts J. Jordan, 

G. Leguy, D. Martin, M. Morlighem, F. Pattyn, D. Pollard, A. Quiquet, C. Rodehacke, H. Seroussi, 

J. Sutter, T. Zhang, J. Van Breedam, R. Calov, R. DeConto, C. Dumas, J. Garbe, G.H. Gudmundsson, M.J. Hoffman, A. Humbert, T. Kleiner, W.H. Lipscomb, M. Meinshausen, E. Ng, S.M.J. Nowicki, 

M. Perego, S.F. Price, F. Saito, N.J. Schlegel, S. Sun, and R.S.W. van de Wal, 2020: Projecting Antarctica’s contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 

ice sheet models (LARMIP-2). Earth System Dynamics, 11 (1), 35–76. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-

2020

Longuet-Higgins, M.S. and R.W. Stewart, 1963: A note on wave set-up. Journal of Marine Research, 21 (4), 

4–10. https://images.peabody.yale.edu/publications/jmr/jmr21-01-01.pdf

Lyu, K., X. Zhang, J.A. Church, A.B.A. Slangen, and J. Hu. 2014: Time of emergence for regional sea-level 

change. Nature Climate Change, 4 (11), 1006–1010. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2397

Marzeion, B., A.H. Jarosch, and M. Hofer, 2012: Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers. The Cryosphere, 6 (6), 1295–1322. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1295-2012

Marzeion, B., R. Hock, B. Anderson, A. Bliss, N. Champollion, K. Fujita, M. Huss, W.W. Immerzeel, 

P. Kraaijenbrink, J.-H. Malles, F. Maussion, V. Radić, D.R. Rounce, A. Sakai, S. Shannon, R. van de Wal, 

and H. Zekollari, 2020: Partitioning the uncertainty of ensemble projections of global glacier mass 

change. Earth’s Future, 8 (7), e2019EF001470. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001470

McCallum, B.E., S.M. Wicklein, R.G. Reiser, R. Busciolano, J. Morrison, R.J. Verdi, J.A. Painter, E.R. Frantz, and 

A.J. Gotvald, 2013: Monitoring Storm Tide and Flooding from Hurricane Sandy along the Atlantic Coast 

of the United States, October 2012. Open File Report 2013-1043. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 

42 pp. http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/ofr20131043
Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States | 70

McKenzie, T., S. Habel, and H. Dulai, 2021: Sea-level rise drives wastewater leakage to coastal waters and 

storm drains. Limnology and Oceanography Letters, 6, 154–163. https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.10186

Menéndez, M., and P.L. Woodworth, 2010: Changes in extreme high water levels based on a quasi-global 

tide-gauge data set. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 115, C10011. 

https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JC005997

Merrifield, M.A., A.S. Genz, C.P. Kontoes, and J.J. Marra, 2013: Annual maximum water levels from tide gauges: Contributing factors and geographic patterns. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 118 (5), 

2535–2546. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrc.20173

Milne, G.A. and J.X. Mitrovica, 1998: Postglacial sea-level change on a rotating Earth. Geophysical Journal 

International, 133 (1), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-246X.1998.1331455.x

Mitrovica, J.X., M.E. Tamisiea, J.L. Davis, and G.A. Milne, 2001: Recent mass balance of polar ice sheets inferred from patterns of global sea-level change. Nature, 409 (6823), 1026–1029. 

https://doi.org/10.1038/35059054

Moftakhari, H. R., Jay, D. A., & Talke, S. A. (2016). Estimating river discharge using multiple-tide gauges distributed along a channel. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 121 (4), 2078–2097. 

https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC010983

Moore, F.C. and N. Obradovich, 2020: Using remarkability to define coastal flooding thresholds. Nature 

Communications, 11 (1), 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-13935-3

Muis, S., M. Verlaan, H.C. Winsemius, J.C.J.H. Aerts, and P.J. Ward, 2016: A global reanalysis of storm surges 

and extreme sea levels. Nature Communications, 7 (1), 11969. 

http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11969

Nadal-Caraballo, N.C., M.O. Campbell, V.M. Gonzalez, M.J. Torres, J.A. Melby, and A.A. Taflanidis, 2020: 

Coastal Hazards System: A probabilistic coastal hazard analysis framework. Journal of Coastal 

Research, 95 (SI), 1211–1216. http://dx.doi.org/10.2112/SI95-235.1

NGS, 2001: Geodetic Program Needs of Louisiana and Wisconsin: Report to Congress. National Oceanic and 

Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, National Geodetic Survey, Silver Spring, MD, 38 

pp. https://www.ngs.noaa.gov/PUBS_LIB/NGSreport_823.pdf

NOAA, 2003: Computational Techniques for Tidal Datums Handbook. NOAA Special Publication NOS COOPS 2. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, Silver Spring, MD, 113 pp. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.

gov/publications/Computational_Techniques_for_Tidal_Datums_handbook.pdf

NOAA, 2020: Surf Zone Forecast and Coastal/Lakeshore Hazard Services. National Weather Service Instruction 10-320. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service, 38 pp. 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/sym/pd01003020curr.pdf

NOAA NOS and U.S. Census Bureau, 2013: National Coastal Population Report: Population Trends from 1970 

to 2020. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, and U.S. Census 

Bureau, Silver Spring, MD, 22 pp. https://aambpublicoceanservice.blob.core.windows.net/oceanserviceprod/facts/coastal-population-report.pdf

Obeysekera, J. and J. Salas, 2020: Hydrologic designs for extreme events under nonstationarity. In: 

Engineering Methods for Precipitation under a Changing Climate. Olsen, J.R. and K.T. Adamec, Eds. 

American Society of Civil Engineers, 63–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/9780784415528.ch04

One Climate Future, 2019: One Climate Future Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment. One Climate 

Future, Cities of Portland and South Portland, 181 pp. https://www.oneclimatefuture.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/OneClimateFuture_VulnerabilityAssessment_Final.pdf
Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States | 71

Oppenheimer, M., B.C. Glavovic , J. Hinkel, R. van de Wal, A.K. Magnan, A. Abd-Elgawad, R. 

Cai, M. Cifuentes-Jara, R.M. DeConto, T. Ghosh, J. Hay, F. Isla, B. Marzeion, B. Meyssignac, and Z. 

Sebesvari, 2019: Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities. In: 

IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Nicolai, 

A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, N.M. Weyer (eds.)]. In Press. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/

sites/3/2019/11/08_SROCC_Ch04_FINAL.pdf

Parris, A., P. Bromirski, V. Burkett, D. Cayan, M. Culver, J. Hall, R. Horton, K. Knuuti, R. Moss, J. Obeysekera, 

A. Sallenger, and J. Weiss, 2012: Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US National Climate Assessment. NOAA Tech Report OAR CPO-1. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Climate 

Program Office, 37 pp. https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/11124

Perica, S., S. Pavlovic, M. St. Laurent, C. Trypaluk, D. Unruh, and O. Wilhite, 2018: Precipitation-Frequency Atlas of the United States. Volume 11, Version 2.0 Texas. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service, Silver Spring, MD. https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/22619

Piecuch, C. G. and, & Quinn, K. J. 2016: El Niño, La Niña, and the global sea level budget. Ocean Science, 12 

(6), 1165–1177. https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-1165-2016

Reguero, B.G., M. Menéndez, F.J. Méndez, R. Mínguez, and I.J. Losada. 2012: A Global Ocean Wave (GOW) 

calibrated reanalysis from 1948 onwards. Coastal Engineering. 65, 38–55. 

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2012.03.003

Richter, K., B. Meyssignac, A.B.A. Slangen, A. Melet, J.A. Church, X. Fettweis, B. Marzeion, C. Agosta, S.R.M. 

Ligtenberg, G. Spada, M.D. Palmer, C.D. Roberts, and N. Champollion, 2020: Detecting a forced signal 

in satellite-era sea-level change. Environmental Research Letters, 15 (9), 094079. 

https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab986e

Rydlund, P. H. Jr., B. J. Densmore (2012). Methods of practice and guidelines for using survey-grade Global 

Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) to establish vertical datum in the United States Geological Survey. 

Chapter 1 of Section D, Field Survey Methods, Book 11, Collection and Delineation of Spatial Data. U.S. 

Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia, 102 pp. with appendixes. http://pubs.usgs.gov/tm/11d1/

Salas, J.D., and J. Obeysekera, 2014: Revisiting the concepts of return period and risk for nonstationary hydrologic extreme events. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19 (3) 554–568. 

https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000820

Salas, J.D., J. Obeysekera, and R. Vogel, 2018: Techniques for assessing water infrastructure for nonstationary extreme events: A review. Hydrologic Science Journal, 63 (3), 325–352. 

https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2018.1426858

Salas, J.D. and J. Obeysekera, 2019: Probability distribution and risk of the first occurrence of k extreme hydrologic events. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 24 (10), 04019032. 

https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001809

Slangen, A.B.A., M. Carson, C.A. Katsman, R.S.W. van de Wal, A. Köhl, L.L.A. Vermeersen, and D. Stammer, 

2014: Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes. Climatic Change, 124 (1), 317–332. 

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1080-9

Stockdon H.F., R.A. Holman, P.A. Howd, and A.H. Sallenger, Jr., 2006: Empirical parameterization of setup, 

swash, and runup. Coastal Engineering, 53 (7), 573–588. 

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2005.12.005

Sutton, R.T., 2019: Climate science needs to take risk assessment much more seriously. Bulletin of the 

American Meteorological Society, 100 (9), 1637–1642. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0280.1
Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States | 72

Sweeney, B. and A. Becker, 2020: Considering future sea level change in maritime infrastructure design: 

A survey of US Engineers. Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering, 146 (4), 

04020019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WW.1943-5460.0000583

Sweet, W.V. and J. Park, 2014: From the extreme to the mean: Acceleration and tipping points of coastal inundation from sea level rise. Earth’s Future, 2 (12), 579–600. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014EF000272

Sweet, W.V., J. Park, S. Gill, and J. Marra, 2015: New ways to measure waves and their effects at NOAA tide 

gauges: A Hawaiian-network perspective. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (21), 9355–9361. 

https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066030

Sweet, W.V., R.E. Kopp, C.P. Weaver, J. Obeysekera, R.M. Horton, E.R. Thieler, and C. Zervas, 2017: Global and 

Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States. NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 083. 

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, Center for Operational 

Oceanographic Products and Services, Silver Spring, MD, 75 pp. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/

publications/techrpt83_Global_and_Regional_SLR_Scenarios_for_the_US_final.pdf

Sweet, W.V., G. Dusek, J. Obeysekera, and J.J. Marra, 2018: Patterns and Projections of High Tide Flooding 

Along the U.S. Coastline Using a Common Impact Threshold. NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 

086. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, 

44 pp. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt86_PaP_of_HTFlooding.pdf

Sweet, W.V., G. Dusek, G. Carbin, J.J. Marra, D. Marcy, and S. Simon, 2020a: 2019 State of U.S. High Tide 

Flooding with a 2020 Outlook. NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 092. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, 24 pp. 

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/Techrpt_092_2019_State_of_US_High_Tide_Flooding_with_a_2020_Outlook_30June2020.pdf

Sweet, W.V., A.S. Genz, J. Obeysekera, and J.J. Marra. 2020b: A regional frequency analysis of tide gauges 

to assess Pacific coast flood risk. Frontiers in Marine Science, 7, 883. 

https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.581769

Sweet, W.V., S. Simon, G. Dusek, D. Marcy, W. Brooks, M. Pendleton, and J. Marra, 2021: 2021 State of High 

Tide Flooding and Annual Outlook. NOAA High Tide Flooding Report. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, 28 pp. 

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/2021_State_of_High_Tide_Flooding_and_Annual_Outlook_Final.pdf

Tebaldi, C., B.H. Strauss, and C.E. Zervas, 2012: Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US 

coasts. Environmental Research Letters, 7 (1), 014032. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014032

Thompson, P.R., M.J. Widlansky, B.D. Hamlington, M.A. Merrifield, J.J. Marra, G.T. Mitchum, and W. Sweet, 

2021: Rapid increases and extreme months in projections of United States high-tide flooding. Nature 

Climate Change, 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01077-8

USACE, 1994: Engineering and Design: Hydrologic Frequency Estimates. ER 1110-2-1450. U.S. Army Corps of 

Engineers, Washington, DC, 8 pp. https://www.publications.usace.army.mil/Portals/76/Publications/EngineerRegulations/ER_1110-2-1450.pdf

USACE. 2014. Procedures to Evaluate Sea Level Change: Impacts, Responses, and Adaptation. Technical Letter 1100-2-1. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Washington, DC, 254 pp. https://www.publications.usace.

army.mil/portals/76/publications/engineertechnicalletters/etl_1100-2-1.pdf

USACE MRG&P, 2017: 2015 Updated Atlas of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Historic Daily Tide Data in 

Coastal Louisiana. MRG&P Report No. 14. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Mississippi River Geomorphology and Potamology Program, New Orleans, LA, 41 pp. https://erdc-library.erdc.dren.mil/jspui/bitstream/11681/25484/1/MRG%26P%20Report%20No%2014.pdf
Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States | 73

USGCRP, 2017: Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I 

[Wuebbles, D.J., D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock (eds.)]. U.S. 

Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 470 pp. doi:10.7930/J0J964J6

USGCRP, 2018: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, 

Volume II [Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and 

B.C. Stewart (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 1515 pp. 

doi:10.7930/NCA4.2018

Vitousek, S., P.L. Barnard, C.H. Fletcher, N. Frazer, L. Erikson, and C.D. Storlazzi, 2017: Doubling of coastal 

flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise. Scientific Reports, 7 (1), 1–9. 

http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-01362-7

Vousdoukas, M.I., L. Mentaschi, E. Voukouvalas, M. Verlaan, S. Jevrejeva, L.P. Jackson, and L. Feyen, 2018: 

Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard. 

Nature Communications, 9 (1), 2360. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04692-w

Wada, Y., L.P.H. Van Beek, F.C. Sperna Weiland, B.F. Chao, Y.-H. Wu, and M.F.P. Bierkens, 2012: Past and 

future contribution of global groundwater depletion to sea-level rise. Geophysical Research Letters, 39 

(9). https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051230

Wada, Y., M.-H. Lo, P.J.F. Yeh, J.T. Reager, J.S. Famiglietti, R.-J. Wu, and Y.-H. Tseng, 2016: Fate of water 

pumped from underground and contributions to sea-level rise. Nature Climate Change, 6 (8), 777–780. 

http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3001

Wahl, T., I.D. Haigh, R.J. Nicholls, A. Arns, S. Dangendorf, J. Hinkel, and A.B. Slangen, 2017: Understanding 

extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis. Nature Communications, 8 

(1), 16075. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms16075

Wang, J., Church, J. A., Zhang, X., & Chen, X. (2021). Reconciling global mean and regional sea level change 

in projections and observations. Nature Communications, 12 (1), 1–12. 

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21265-6

WCRP Global Sea Level Budget Group, 2018: Global sea-level budget 1993–present. Earth System Science 

Data, 10, 1551–1590. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1551-2018

Weaver, C.P., R.H. Moss, K.L. Ebi, P.H. Gleick, P.C. Stern, C. Tebaldi, R.S. Wilson, and J.L. Arvai, 2017: Reframing climate change assessments around risk: Recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment. Environmental Research Letters, 12 (8), 080201. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7494

Werners, S.E., R.M. Wise, J.R.A. Butler, E. Totin, and K. Vincent, 2021: Adaptation pathways: A review of approaches and a learning framework. Environmental Science & Policy, 116, 266–275. 

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.11.003

Yin, J., M.E. Schlesinger, and R.J. Stouffer, 2009: Model projections of rapid sea-level rise on the northeast 

coast of the United States. Nature Geoscience, 2 (4), 262–266. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo462

Zervas, C., 2013: Extreme Water Levels of the United States 1893–2010. NOAA Technical Report NOS COOPS 067. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, 

MD, 212 pp. 

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/NOAA_Technical_Report_NOS_COOPS_067a.pdf