U.S. flag An official website of the United States government.
				Here's how you know we're official. **Official websites use .gov** A **.gov** website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
 **Secure websites use HTTPS** A small lock or **https://** means you’ve safely connected to a .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.


Toggle navigation Toggle search National Ocean Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
 Search
					Search National Ocean Service


Home
				Ocean Facts

				Topics
					Explore All Topics 
                        Arctic 
                        Careers 
                        Economy 
                        Ecosystems 
                        Geodesy 
                        Hazards 
                        International
                        Navigation 
                        Observations 
                        Ocean 
                        Recreation 
                         Sea Level Rise 
                        Story Maps 
                        Tools
                
                			Education

				
				News
				Podcasts
				Video
				Images
				About Us


1. Home
2. Ecoforecasting

NOAA Ecological Forecasting Protecting Human Health and Coastal Economies with Early Warnings


Current Year Forecasts
					Ecoforecasting Hot Spots (Map)
					Available Forecasts
  Ecological forecasts, commonly referred to as "ecoforecasts," detail how interactions between organisms and their environment may affect economies and communities that depend on ecosystem services, human health, and the health of bodies of water. Ecoforecasts bring together wide-ranging research and observations to allow coastal resource managers to answer "What if?" questions about the numerous factors that affect coastal resources.    2024 NOAA Forecasts, Reports, and News: Dead Zones, Harmful Algal Blooms, Coral Bleaching  Clay Treatments to Control Red Tide Unlikely to Harm Blue Crabs (January 2024)
  Ecoforecasting Hot Spots
 Select a location on the map below for an overview of ecological forecasting "hot spots" around the nation, focusing on NOAA forecasts available related to harmful algal blooms, coastal pathogens, and hypoxia. In addition to these forecasts, NOAA also publishes an experimental **Four-Month Coral Bleaching Outlook** that predicts the likelihood of coral bleaching heat stress up to four months in the future, the typical length of a bleaching season. The outlook is updated weekly, and is based on the daily sea surface temperature (SST). 
 **Gulf of Mexico: Overview** Harmful Algal Blooms In the Gulf of Mexico, HABs (or red tide) are caused by the rapid growth of a microscopic algae species called *Karenia brevis.* Red tide can impact the health of humans and animal life. NOAA provides forecasts that enable coastal communities as they respond to red tide. HAB Forecast Bulletins are distributed twice weekly to the management community during active bloom periods helping to reduce the impact of HAB events through rapid, coordinated responses. Gulf of Mexico Harmful Algal Bloom Forecast Bulletins Pathogens *Vibrio* concentrations in oysters harvested from bottom waters of the Gulf are related to the temperature and salinity. NOAA uses the Northern Gulf of Mexico Operational Forecast System to predict expected concentrations of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* in oysters at the time of harvest. Gulf of Mexico Vibrio Predictive Model Hypoxia Perhaps the best known and largest hypoxic zone in the United States is the Gulf of Mexico “dead zone” at the mouth of the Mississippi River. The consequences of such a large dead zone include massive fish kills, loss of critical coastal habitat, and economic losses related to commercially valuable shellfish closures. NOAA’s ability to forecast the dead zone’s size is critical in managing nutrient loads and understanding the effectiveness of nutrient reduction efforts in the Mississippi River Watershed. **Florida** Harmful Algal Blooms Toxic blooms of *Karenia brevis*, also known as the red tide, bloom almost every year along the western Florida coastline. *Karenia brevis* produces potent neurotoxins that can be suspended in the air near beaches and cause human respiratory illness. These blooms have been the cause of large expanses of coral reef, benthic organism, and fish kills. NOAA is actively funding projects that will investigate the economic impacts of HABs in Florida. NOAA’s programs provide immediate assistance to states when a bloom is about to occur. HAB Forecast Bulletins are distributed twice weekly to the management community during active bloom periods helping to reduce the impact of HAB events through rapid, coordinated responses. The rate of emergency room admissions for respiratory diagnoses in Florida coastal residents can increase significantly during red tide events. NOAA is providing a risk level forecast for red tide respiratory impacts on beaches across southwest Florida. The 24-hour Experimental Red Tide Respiratory Forecasts are updated every three hours, following the collection and analysis of water samples. The forecast will typically be available on Tuesdays, Thursdays, Saturdays and Sundays. Harmful Algal Bloom Forecast Bulletins for Eastern and South Western Florida Red Tide Respiratory Forecasts for South Western Florida Pathogens *Vibrio* species are bacteria that occur naturally in our coastal waters, but certain species and strains can also be harmful to human health. The pathogenic bacterium *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* can cause gastroenteritis from consumption of raw oysters. This adversely affects both public health and the shellfish industry. NOAA’s Tampa Bay *Vibrio* predictive models let state managers know where and when to expect elevated concentrations of *Vibrio*, and forecast environmental conditions that promote rapid growth of Vibrio to inform both management and individual grower harvest decision making. Tampa Bay Vibrio Predictive Models **Texas** Harmful Algal Blooms Toxic blooms of *Karenia brevis* along the coast of Texas have been responsible for fish kills and commercially valuable shellfish bed closures, resulting in economic impacts exceeding tens of millions of dollars. NOAA’s programs provide immediate assistance to states when a bloom is about to occur. HAB Forecast Bulletins are distributed twice weekly to the management community during active bloom periods helping to reduce the impact of HAB events through rapid, coordinated responses. Gulf of Mexico Harmful Algal Bloom Forecast Bulletins for Texas
    What Ecoforecasts are Available from NOAA and our Partners?  Harmful Algal Bloom Forecasts: Lake Erie Forecasts Gulf of Mexico HAB Forecast Bulletins — Florida, Louisiana, Texas Florida Respiratory Forecasts Gulf of Maine Forecast Pacific Northwest Harmful Algal Bloom Forecast (Northwest Association of Networked Ocean Observing Systems) California HAB Forecast — includes Southern Oregon
 Coastal Pathogen Forecasts: Chesapeake Bay Vibrio Predictive Models for V. parahaemolyticus (shellfish guidance) Delaware Bay and Coastal Inland Bays Vibrio Predictive Models Gulf of Mexico Vibrio Predictive Models Northeast (Long Island Sound, New Hampshire, Massachusetts) Pacific Northwest Vibrio Predictive Models Tampa Bay Vibrio Predictive Models Chesapeake Bay Vibrio Predictive Model for V. vulnificus (water guidance)
 Hypoxia ("Dead Zone") Forecasts: Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Watch Chesapeake Bay Forecast (Virginia Institute of Marine Science) Great Lakes Experimental Forecast
 Coral Bleaching Forecasts: Coral Bleaching Global Outlook (Experimental)
 NOAA's Role Learn about ecological forecasting and how NOAA predicts ecological change. Forecasting Archive (Previous Year Reports) An archive of past year forecasts and ecological forecasting news. National Marine Ecosystem Status Website View a snapshot of major U.S. marine ecosystem indicators.    More Information NOAA’s Ecological Forecasting (PDF) What is Ecoforecasting? Harmful Algal Bloom Portal: Regional Information and Links What is hypoxia? NOAA Coral Reef Watch     Get **Social** Social


Feedback Provide Feedback
							Contact Us
							Report an error
 Social Instagram Logo/a>


*Science. Service.Stewardship.*
 About NOS About Us
							NOS Program Offices
							Media Inquiries
							Website Acknowledgements
                            Site Index
							Disclaimer
 More Resources Freedom of Information Act
							Accessibility
							Information Quality
							Privacy Policy
							NOS For Employees
							USA.gov
 Department of Commerce
									National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
									National Ocean Service