September 22, 2022

Aluminum Futures Markets Report

to

U.S. House and Senate Appropriations Committees

COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION
September 22, 2022

Disclaimer

This report is a review of Aluminum derivatives markets conducted by the Market Intelligence Branch of the Division 

of Market Oversight at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”). The report analyzes broad market 

trends and various demand, supply, and other fundamental factors affecting Aluminum derivatives markets. The report 

does not evaluate any proprietary reference contracts or the underlying methodologies used to create, calculate or 

measure benchmarks.

Aluminum is a global metal and flows from mines and processors to many final products. As a matter of course, it is 

traded readily across U.S. state and international borders. Many of the movements, trades, and subsequent values are 

independent transactions. These transactions occur outside the purview of U.S. exchanges and are not cleared by 

CFTC registrants. However, certain cash market activity can fall under CFTC’s enforcement authority to prevent 

fraud and manipulation in interstate commerce. Additionally, several price reporting agencies use these bilateral 

transactions for publishing daily price assessments. Certain futures contracts under CFTC regulation settle to these 

published price assessments. Platts and Harbor Aluminum publish several daily price assessments. Neither Platts nor 

Harbor are registrants with the CFTC. 

This analysis is based on longer-term trends in futures, cash, and aluminum prices (both physical and premiums) and 

does not provide an opinion on individual price points, fixings, or other non-public information.

The report does not contain data or information that would separately disclose the business transactions or market 

positions of any person or the trade secrets or names of customers or any other data confidentially submitted to the 

CFTC. See Sections 8(a) and 8(e) of the Commodity Exchange Act (“CEA”), 7 U.S.C. §12(a), (e). This report is 

based upon publicly-available cash and futures markets information available to Staff at the time the report was 

prepared, and any different, changed, or omitted facts or circumstances may require additional analysis. Staff also 

notes that access to proprietary data or use of different calculations or methodology could lead to different 

conclusions. Finally, while Staff has endeavored to ensure data accuracy, corrections to underlying data may occur 

and could also result in different conclusions. 

2
September 22, 2022

Purpose

This report is being presented pursuant to language outlined in the explanatory 

statements found in the Congressional Directives of Division A - Agriculture, 

Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration, and related Agencies 

Appropriations Act 2022, accompanying H.R. 2471, the Consolidated 

Appropriations Act 2022, ( P.L. 117-103). Specifically, within 180 days of 

enactment of this Act, the CFTC is directed to issue a public report on factors 

affecting the aluminum commodities market.

This report has been prepared by the Market Intelligence Branch in the 

Division of Market Oversight of the CFTC and is being submitted to the 

House and Senate Appropriations Committees. The information in the report 

is current as of June 30, 2022.

3
September 22, 2022

Metals Markets Overview

4
September 22, 2022

Base Metals

LME Official Cash prices

percent changes since start of year

23%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

90%

1/3/2021 5/3/2021 9/3/2021 1/3/2022 5/3/2022

Copper Zinc Aluminum

Copper, aluminum and zinc each hit alltime record high prices in March 2022 

due to the post-pandemic global 

economic recovery, fears of sanctions 

against Russian entities, tight physical 

stocks, and supply chain disruptions.

Since then, demand for these metals has

decreased, attributed to the global 

economic slowdown.

Recent central bank interest rate hikes, 

China’s zero-Covid policy, rising 

energy prices and a strong dollar have 

put downward pressure on metal prices, 

including aluminum. 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/lme-aluminium-holds-firm-russian-supply-risks-2022-03-

01/#:~:text=LONDON%2C%20March%201%20(Reuters),over%20shipping%20disruptions%20boosted%20nickel.

https://www.mining.com/web/column-metals-melt-down-as-recession-fears-overwhelm-supply-woes 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/vanishing-lme-shadow-stocks-add-metals-market-turmoil-2022-04-13/

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/metals-melt-down-recession-fears-overwhelm-supply-woes-2022-07-04/

https://www.wsj.com/articles/strong-dollar-fuels-pullback-in-commodity-markets-11658223085?mod=Searchresults_pos2&page=

https://www.reuters.com/business/covid-curbs-bite-chinese-ports-threatening-global-supply-chains-2022-03-16/

5

Source: Bloomberg
September 22, 2022

U.S. Metals Futures Markets

Open Interest of selected COMEX metal 

contracts ($ million, as of 6/30/2022)

Source: Bloomberg

• The approximate value of Open Interest 

in the Commodity Exchange (COMEX) 

metals futures markets was $126 billion 

on June 30, 2022. 

• Gold futures had the highest Open 

Interest at $89 billion, followed by copper 

and silver.

• Total base metal futures contracts are 

valued at approximately $17.7 billion.

• Aluminum futures had an Open Interest 

of $34 million.

6

Precious Metals

Gold $ 89,612 

Silver $ 14,239 

Platinum $ 3,111 

Palladium $ 1,418 

Base Metals

Copper $ 16,966 

Steel $ 449 

Iron Ore $ 157 

Ferrous Scrap $ 66 

Aluminum $ 34 
September 22, 2022

Aluminum Markets

7
September 22, 2022

Major Aluminum Futures Markets

Major Aluminum Futures Markets 

Value of Open Interest as of 6/30/2022 London Metal Exchange (LME)

• LME is the world’s largest metal exchange.

LME primary aluminum contract (25t) is 

considered the global benchmark.

•

• LME is a registered Foreign Board of Trade 

(FBOT) with the CFTC. 

Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE)

• Shanghai Futures is the second largest market 

for aluminum futures.

• SHFE Primary aluminum contract is 1/5th the 

size of the LME and COMEX contracts. 

• SHFE is not registered as an FBOT with the 

CFTC.

Commodity Exchange (COMEX)

• Primary aluminum had the smallest volume 

(431) and open interest (570) of the major 

exchanges. 

• COMEX is registered with CFTC as a 

Designated Contract Market (DCM).

8

34.70

4.92

0.03

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

LME SHFE CME

$ Billions

Source: Bloomberg
September 22, 2022

London Metal Exchange Aluminum Stocks

LME Aluminum Stocks

Regional inventory breakdown

$1,400

$1,900

$2,400

$2,900

$3,400

$3,900

$4,400

 -

 200,000

 400,000

 600,000

 800,000

 1,0

metric tons

00,000

 1,200,000

 1,400,000

 1,600,000

 1,800,000

 2,000,000

Jan-21

Sep-21

Jan-22

May-22

 EUROPE

May-21

 ASIA AMERICAS

 Total LME Stocks LME 3m Price

$ / metric ton

There are over 500 LME-approved 

storage facilities in 32 locations across 

the U.S., Europe, and Asia. 

Aluminum stocks at LME warehouses 

have decreased 81% since March 2021 

and are at their lowest level since 2001. 

In June, LME warehouses in Port 

Klang, Malaysia and Singapore 

reported load-out queues of 139 and 28 

days, respectively. Load-out queues 

represent the time it takes for physical 

metal to be removed from a warehouse 

and loaded for transport. No queues 

were reported for U.S. warehouses. 

https://www.lme.com/Physical-services/Warehousing/Warehouse-network

https://www.lme.com/en/Market-data/Reports-and-data/Warehouse-and-stocks-reports/Warehouse-and-queue-data

https://www.recyclingtoday.com/article/understanding-the-lme/ , 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/collapsing-metal-inventories-clash-with-plunging-prices-2022-07-13/

Source: Bloomberg

9
September 22, 2022

The U.S. Midwest Aluminum Premium

Regional Premiums

The LME cash price represents a global price for aluminum and is not specific to 

any particular location. Each delivery market has one or more local pricing 

points that are priced as differentials to the LME cash price. These regional 

differentials are known as premiums.

U.S. Midwest Premium

The U.S. Midwest Premium is the regional differential for aluminum delivered 

into the Midwest (the primary pricing point in the U.S.). Platts and Harbor 

Aluminum publish daily price assessments of the Midwest Premium.

U.S. Midwest Premium Futures Contract

COMEX lists a financially settled Midwest premium futures contract. The 

Aluminum MW U.S. Transaction Premium (AUP) contract settles to the average 

of Platts’s daily price assessments for the month. See Addendum for contract 

specs.

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September 22, 2022

Regional Premiums

Source: Bloomberg

COMEX regional aluminum 

premium contracts

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

1/1/2021 5/1/2021 9/1/2021 1/1/2022 5/1/2022

$/metric ton

Metal Bulletin Euro Prem - Duty UNPaid

Metal Bulletin Euro Prem - Duty Paid

Platts US MW Prem mt/equiv

Platts Japan Prem

Besides U.S. Midwest premium contract, COMEX 

also lists premium contracts for Europe (European 

Duty-Unpaid and European Duty-Paid) and Japan.

The Platts U.S. Midwest premium assessment hit 

an all-time record high of 40.1 cents/lb. in April 

2022 attributed to increased demand, tight supplies, 

tariffs, supply chain disruptions and increased 

freight rates. Since April, the U.S. MW premium 

has decreased, with decreases attributed to 

dampened demand and recession fears. 

European premiums also hit all-time highs in 2022 

attributed to tight supplies, smelter curtailments 

attributed to high energy costs, and logistics 

challenges. European premiums continue to 

remain elevated.

11

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-07/americans-face-record-metals-prices-as-shipping-costs-surge

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/vanishing-lme-shadow-stocks-add-metals-market-turmoil-2022-04-13/ 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-22/u-s-aluminum-premium-surpasses-merry-go-round-scandal-record

https://agmetalminer.com/mmwp/2022/06/17/aluminum-stocks-prices-and-delivery-premiums-metalminer/

https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/aluminium-premiums-reach-new-highs-in-europe-steady-in-us-japan-brazil

https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/european-aluminium-market-tightness-worsens-as-logistics-issues-plague-ports

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-29/aluminum-orders-stall-as-u-s-buyers-fear-looming-recession

https://www.recyclingtoday.com/article/isri2022-aluminum-session-spotlights-challenges/

https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/bearish-sentiment-builds-in-european-base-metals-markets https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/us-midwestaluminium-premium-falls-from-peak https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/podcasts/focus/071522-alumina-aluminum-chinatrade-flows-australia-japan-russia-ukraine
September 22, 2022

U.S. Midwest aluminum all-in price

LME All-in Price

5%

7%

9%

11%

13%

15%

17%

19%

21%

23%

25%

 $500

 $1,000

 $1,500

 $2,000

 $2,500

 $3,000

 $3,500

 $4,000

 $4,500

 $5,000

 $-

1/1/2021 5/1/2021 9/1/2021 1/1/2022 5/1/2022

Platts US MW Premium /mt LME Cash

LME All_In Price % Prem to All-In

$/metric ton

Source: Bloomberg

MW Premium to All-In ratio

• The “all-in” price for aluminum is 

the LME Official Cash price plus 

the regional differential. For 

example, in the U.S. the all-in 

would be LME plus the Platts 

Midwest assessment.

• The U.S. all-in aluminum price hit

an all-time high (approx. $4,716) 

in March 2022. 

• Since hitting its peak in March 

2022, the U.S. Midwest aluminum 

all-in price declined 34% to 

$3,107/ton.

12

All-In calculation $3,107.2 = LME Cash $2,426.0 + Midwest Premium = $681.2 or 30.90 Cents
September 22, 2022

COMEX Aluminum MW U.S. Transaction Premium contract

COMEX Aluminum MW U.S. Transaction Premium 

AUP Forward curve and Open Interest The COMEX Aluminum MW

U.S. Transaction Premium 

contract (AUP) held an 

aggregate open interest of 

27,114 as of 6/30/2022. 

Average AUP open interest 

since the start of 2021 was 

23,559 contracts.

The front part of the AUP 

forward curve is in 

backwardation (i.e. prices for 

deferred months are lower than 

nearby prices), an economic 

signal that suggests tight supply 

in the near term.

13

Source: Bloomberg

$0.20

$0.22

$0.24

$0.26

$0.28

$0.30

$0.32

 3,000 $0.34

 -

 1,000

 500

 1,500

 2,000

 2,500

Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23

Contract Open Interest Prices 06-30-22

Open Interest

Price $/lb
September 22, 2022

Every week the CFTC publishes the 

Commitments of Traders (COT) and the 

Disaggregated COT (DCOT) reports. These 

reports contain information on futures and 

options positions held by different categories of 

traders. The COT report classifies traders into 

two categories: Commercial and NonCommercial. The DCOT report classifies traders

into four categories: 

Producer/Merchant/Processor/User; Swap 

Dealers; Managed Money; and Other 

Reportables. 

(25,000)

(20,000)

(15,000)

(10,000)

(5,000)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1/2/2021 5/2/2021 9/2/2021 1/2/2022 5/2/2022

Contracts

Producer Net SwapDealer Net

Managed Money Net Other Reportable Net

For AUP, on a net basis, Producers tend to hold 

short positions while Swap Dealers tend to hold 

long positions. As shown in the chart, Managed 

Money positions are nearly flat.

Since the start of 2021, Producers have generally 

decreased their net short holdings and Swap 

Dealers have decreased their net long holdings.

Midwest Premium Futures: Commitments of Traders

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders

COMEX AUP net positions

14

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm (disaggregatedcotexplanatorynot.pdf)

https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/HistoricalCompressed/index.htm
September 22, 2022

Aluminum Market Fundamentals

15
September 22, 2022

Fundamental Factors - Production

Global Primary Aluminum Output • Global aluminum production is 

forecasted to grow to nearly 69 million 

tons in 2022. 

• China, the world’s largest producer and 

consumer of aluminum, has restarted 

capacity shuttered during the pandemic.

• European production fell 11.5% in the 

first half of 2022, attributed to high 

power costs and uncertainty 

surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war. 

• Through May, North American primary

aluminum production is down 4.5% in 

2022 compared to the same period last 

year. 

https://amers2.apps.cp.thomsonreuters.com/Apps/news-monitor#savedinstance=true

https://www.sdcexec.com/sourcing-procurement/sourcing-solutions/article/22018008/aranca-commodity-price-risk-in-2022-aluminum

16

 -

 10,000

 20,000

 30,000

 50,000

 60,000

 70,000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 thru

May

Metric tons

 40,000

Source data: https://international-aluminium.org/statistics/primary-aluminium-production/
September 22, 2022

Fundamental Factors – China Imports and Exports

China’s Aluminum Imports & Exports

Unwrought Aluminum and Aluminum Products • China imports remained strong in 

2021 as domestic production failed 

to match demand from domestic 

manufacturers. 

• China exports of unwrought 

aluminum have increased 34% this 

year compared to the same period in 

2021 (Jan-May) despite a 15% duty.

• Much of what is leaving China is 

heading for Europe where smelters 

have curtailed output as electricity 

prices have soared in the wake of 

Russia's invasion of Ukraine. (650)

(450)

(250)

(50)

150

350

550

Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22

China Imports China Exports

Thousands metric tons

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/global-aluminium-production-pendulum-swings-back-china-2022-06-21/

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-lifts-metals-exports-western-supply-chains-buckle-2022-05-12/, 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-lifts-aluminium-exports-western-production-slides-2022-04-01/

Source: Bloomberg

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September 22, 2022

Fundamental Factors - U.S. Imports

U.S. Unwrought Aluminum Imports

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022e

Other Countries Canada

Millions metric tons

• The U.S. imported over 2.5 

million metric tons of 

unwrought (ingots, slabs, 

blocks) aluminum from 

Canada in 2021, or about 70% 

of its total imports.

• The U.S. imported 5.3% of its 

unwrought metal from Russia 

and 0.05% from China.

• U.S. unwrought imports have 

increased 17% (566k mt) since 

2020.

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/021022-usp1020-imports-fall-as-supply-remains-tight, https://www.usgs.gov/centers/nationalminerals-information-center/aluminum-statistics-and-information - Mineral 

Commodity Summaries 2022 (mcs2022-aluminum & mis-202112-alumi)

18

Source: (HS 7601) usatrade.census.gov
September 22, 2022

Fundamental Factors - Tariffs

• In 2018, the United States imposed a 10% tariff on aluminum imports under Section 232 of the Trade 

Expansion Act of 1964. Canada and Mexico were granted exemptions in May 2019 amid negotiations 

surrounding the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

• The Aluminum Import Monitoring and Analysis (AIM) system was launched June 2021. AIM is 

intended to aid in enforcement of trade agreements and circumvent evasion of tariffs and quotas on 

aluminum and aluminum products.

• In October 2021, an agreement was reached between the United States and the European Union (“EU”) 

to remove the 10% ad valorem tariff on aluminum imports that was imposed in 2018 under the 

authority of Section 232.

• Starting in January 2022, the tariff was applied only on imports from countries in the EU that exceed 

specified quotas.

• In May 2022, the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) announced a fact-finding 

investigation into the economic impact of the Section 301 China tariffs and the Section 232 steel and 

aluminum tariffs. In July, aluminum industry groups testified at a public hearing on the economic 

impact of the tariffs. The USITC must submit a report on U.S. trade, production, and prices in the 

industries directly and most affected by these tariffs to Congress by March 15, 2023.

https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/aluminum-statistics-and-information - Mineral Commodity Summaries 2022 (mcs2022-aluminum) 

https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/12/23/2020-28166/aluminum-import-monitoring-and-analysis-system, 

https://btlaw.com/en/insights/alerts/2022/shaping-the-future-of-tariffs-usitc-investigating-economic-impact-of-section-301-and-232-actions

19
September 22, 2022

Global Supply Chain - Freight Rates

Container Freight Rates

40-Foot Box Rates

$14,000

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$16,000

Jan-20

Apr-20

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jan-21

Apr-21

Jul-21

Oct-21

Jan-22

Apr-22

 WCI Shanghai to Los Angeles WCI Shanghai to Rotterdam

• Availability of container ships, 

trucks, and drivers impact shipping 

costs across the supply chain and 

are important factors in aluminum 

prices.

• Global container rates began falling 

at the end of 2021; however, they 

are still more than quadruple prepandemic levels.

• Shanghai-Rotterdam container rates

have dropped 38% since their 

record high in October 2021.

• The spread of Covid-19 caused 

lockdowns, resulting in port 

congestion and shipping delays. 

Americans Face Record Metals Prices as Shipping Costs Surge 2/7/202 Bloomberg 

https://www.reuters.com/business/covid-curbs-bite-chinese-ports-threatening-global-supply-chains-2022-03-16/

https://www.reuters.com/business/global-port-congestion-high-shipping-rates-last-into-2023-execs-2022-06-16/

20

Source: Bloomberg
September 22, 2022

Russia

Sources: Bloomberg Intelligence., https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-20/china-s-alumina-exports-soar-to-fill-russian-shortages 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/europes-aluminium-output-slides-energy-crunch-bites-2022-05-24/, https://news.metal.com/newscontent/101766319/rusal-shuts-down-ukrainealumina-plant-supply-disturbance-continues-to-push-up-aluminum-price-agency-review , List of importing markets for a product exported by Russian Federation in 2021 | Product : 7601 

Unwrought aluminium (trademap.org) ITC calcs based on Federal Customs Service of Russia statistics since Jan 2015. ITC calculations based on UN COMTRADE statistics until Jan 2015

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/063022-us-lists-russian-aluminum-steel-products-now-subject-to-35-duty

https://gmk.center/en/news/european-novelis-plants-will-refuse-russian-aluminum/

Russia Unwrought Exports 

Top 10 Countries (2021)

 -

 100,000

Metric tons

300,000

 400,000

 500,000

 600,000

 700,000

Country

Thousand 

USD 

Turkey $ 1,381,556 

Japan $ 981,004 

China $ 732,980 

United States of 

America $ 566,052 

Netherlands $ 508,547 

Norway $ 339,268 

Korea, Republic of $ 270,035 

Italy $ 282,781 

Greece $ 246,763 

Taipei, Chinese $ 197,190 

Alumina

Alumina is an intermediate product in the conversion of 

bauxite (aluminum ore) to aluminum metal.

In March 2022, Russian aluminum producer Rusal halted 

alumina shipments from its Nikolaev refinery in Ukraine due 

to logistical challenges in the Black Sea. 

China has increased its exports of alumina to Russia by 

1000% to meet Russia’s shortfall. 

Aluminum

Rusal produces 5.6% of the world’s primary aluminum. Partly 

due to alumina exports from China, Russian aluminum 

production has not been disrupted as was expected when the 

war in Ukraine began.

 200,000

Russian aluminum has not been sanctioned by either the U.S. 

or the E.U. However, effective July 27, U.S. has imposed a 

35% tariff on imports of certain aluminum and steel products 

from Russia. Additionally, some private companies have 

announced plans to stop importing aluminum from Russia.

21
September 22, 2022

Addendum

22
September 22, 2022

U.S. Midwest Premium Futures Contract Key Specifications

The COMEX MWP contract specifications:

• Contract size is 55,116 pounds (25 metric tons).

• Priced in U.S. cents per pound.

• Listed for 60 consecutive months.

• Last trading day (LTD) is the last business day of the contract month.

• The floating price for each contract month is equal to the average price 

calculated for all available price assessments and is published by Platts 

Aluminum MW U.S. Transaction Premium assessment for that given calendar 

month.

• The contract is financially settled.

Source: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/base/aluminum-mw-us-transaction-premium-platts-swap-futures.contractSpecs.html

23