CFTC Website: www.cftc.gov

COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION

Agricultural Markets Roundtable

April 22, 2008 Washington, DC
Major U.S. Grain/Soy Futures Prices

Nearby Future Settlement Price 7/2/07 - 4/18/08 

2468

1012141618202224

7/2

7/10

7/17

7/24

7/31

8/7

8/14

8/21

8/28

9/5

9/12

9/19

9/26

10/3

10/10

10/17

10/24

10/31

11/7

11/14

11/21

11/29

12/6

12/13

12/20

12/28

1/7

1/14

1/22

1/29

2/5

2/12

2/20

2/27

Dollars per Bushel .

Corn

Soybeans

MGEX Wheat

KCBOT Wheat

CBOT 

Rice ($/cwt)

All-Time Record High Nearby Futures Price

MGEX Wheat $25.00 on 2/25/08

 KCBOT Wheat $13.70 on 2/27/08

 CBOT Wheat $13.00 on 2/27/08

 Rice $24.05 on 4/18/08

Soybeans $15.70 on 3/3/08 

Corn $6.16 on 4/9/08

Oats $4.34 on 3/3/08

Source: FutureSource data service
% Annual Price Changes

April 2007 – April 2008

LUMBER -14%

LIVE CATTLE* -7%

FEEDER CATTLE* -7%

LEAN HOGS* -5%

MILK 5%

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX 7%

COFFEE* 24%

SUGAR (#11)* 30%

GOLD 37%

COCOA* 37%

GASOLINE 41%

OATS 47%

COTTON* 48%

CORN* 66%

SOYMEAL 73%

CRUDE OIL (NYMEX) 82%

SOYBEANS* 83%

SOYOIL* 88%

WHEAT (CBOT)* 95%

WHEAT (KCBT)* 99%

RICE 122%

COMMODITY Price Change

*IncludSupple
U.S. CORN ENDING-STOCKS AND STOCKS-TO-U

1980/81 THROUGH 2007/08

BILLION BUSHELS PERCEN

80/81

81/82

82/83

83/84

84/85

85/86

86/87

87/88

88/89

89/90

90/91

91/92

92/93

93/94

94/95 95/96

96/97

97/98

98/99

99/00

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/0

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0

ENDING-STOCKS STOCKS/USE RATIO
U.S. CORN USED FOR ETHANOL

BILLION BUSHELS PERCEN

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

0.00.40.81.21.62.02.42.83.23.64.04.4

CORN USED % OF PRODUCTION

2008 CORN PRODUCTION AND ETHANOL NUMBERS ARE FROM THE FEBRUARY 2008 USDA BASELINE REP
WORLD ALL WHEAT ENDING STOCKS AND STOCKS-TO

1970/71 THROUGH 2007/08

MILLION TONNES PERCE

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974

1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

1991

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200

6080

100120140160180200220

ENDING STOCKS STOCKS/USE

2007 WORLD ENDING STOCKS ARE THE LOWEST SINCE 1977 AT 112.48 MMT (4.13 BILLION BUSHELWORLD STOCKS TO USE IS THE LOWEST ON RECORD AT 18.1%
ALL U.S. WHEAT ENDING STOCKS AND STOCKS-TO

1941/02 THROUGH 2007/08

MILLION BUSHELS PERCEN

1941 1943 1945 1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957

1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 20

0

200400600800

100012001400160018002000

ENDING STOCKS STOCKS/USE

2007 ENDING STOCKS AT 242 MILLION BUSHELS THE LOWEST SINCE 19472007 STOCKS-TO-USE RATIO AT 10.2% IS THE LOWEST SINCE 1946
U.S. Soybean Ending-Stocks and Stocks-to-Use 

0

100200300400500600

1975/76

1977/78

1979/80

1981/82

1983/84

1985/86

1987/88

1989/90

1991/92

1993/94

1995/96

1997/98

1999/00

2001/02

2003/04

Million Bushels .

Ending-StocksStocks-to-Use Ratio

Record High: 574 mil. b
WORLD RICE ENDING STOCKS & STOCKS-TO-U

1970/71 THROUGH 2007/08

ENDING STOCKS IN MMT STOCKS/US

1970/71

1971/72 1972/73

1973/74 1974/75

1975/76 1976/77 1977/78

1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82

1982/83

1983/84 1984/85

1985/86 1986/87

1987/88 1988/89 1989/90

1990/91 1991/92 1992/93

1993/94 1994/95

1995/96 1996/97

1997/98 1998/99 1999/00

2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05

2005/06 2006/07

2007/0

0

153045607590

105120135150

ENDING STOCKS STOCKS/USE

WORLD ENDING STOCKS AT 74 MMT IS THE LOWEST SINCE 1983.STOCKS-TO-USE AT 17.8% IS THE LOWEST SINCE 1976.
U.S. RICE ENDING STOCKS & STOCKS-TO-US

1970/71 THROUGH 2007/08

ENDING STOCKS IN MILLION CWT STOCKS/US

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980 1981 1982 1983

1984

1985 1986 1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993 1994

1995

1996

1997 1998 1999 2000

2001

2002 2003 2004

2005

2006

200

0

12243648607284

U.S. ENDING STOCKS U.S. STOCKS/USE

ENDING STOCKS AT 21.6% ARE DOWN 45% FROM LAST YEAR AND ARE THE LOWEST STOCKS TO USE RATIO IS AT 9.1% DOWN 50% FROM LAST YEAR AND THE LOWEST S
U.S. DIESEL AVERAGE PRICE

2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, AND A 2004-1994 RAN

DOLLARS PER GALLON

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV 

0.751.001.251.501.752.002.252.502.753.003.253.503.754.004.25

2008 2007 2006 2005 HIGH/LOW 2004-1994 MEDIAN 2004-19

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY MONTH-END DATA, APRIL 2008 AS OF 4/14/08
ILLINOIS RIVER BARGE FREIGHT RA

2008, 2007, 2006, 2005 AND A 2004-1994 RANG

CENTS PER BUSHEL OF CORN

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

0

102030405060708090

100110

2008 2007 2006 2005 HIGH/LOW 2004-1994 MEDIAN 2004-9

FREIGHT RATE = COST TO BARGE CORN FROM CHICAGO TO NEW ORLEANS. MONTH-END DATA, APRIL 2008 AS OF 4/8.HURRICANE KATRINA IMPACTED THE AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER 2005 FREIGHT COSTS DRAMATICALLY.
CENTS PER BUSHEL (MAY BASIS)

CHICAGOTOLEDO OHIO STL EVANSVILLEDECATURIL RIVER 

07

14212835424956

0

-7

-14-21-28-35

CORN BASIS COMPARISONS FOR THE 4th WEEK OF 

2008, 2007 AND A 2006-1997 RANGE

2008 2007 HIGH/LOW 2006-1997 MEDIAN 2006-1997
CENTS PER BUSHEL (MAY BASIS)

MINNEAPOLIS HUTCHINSONKC, MOGULF, TXKC, MOCHICAGOTOLEDO GULF

0

20406080

100

0

-20-40-60

WHEAT BASIS COMPARISONS FOR THE 4TH WEEK O

2008, 2007 AND A 2006-1997 RANGE

2008 2007 HIGH/LOW 2006-1997 MEDIAN 2006-1997

Spring Hard Red Winter Soft R
Cents Per Bushel (May Basis)

Chicago ToledoDecatur, ILN. IL River Gulf CIF

0

2040

-20-40-60

Soybean Basis Comparison for the 4th Week of Mar

2008, 2007 and the 1996-2006 High/Low Range

2008 2007 1996-2006 Range
CBOT May Corn Basis History

DAYS UNTIL LTD

Basis in Cents/Bushel

30

29

28

27

26

25

24

23

22

21

20

19

18

17

16

15

14

13

12

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

05

-5

-10-15-20-25-30-35

The zero line represents corn loaded in a barge in Zone 1 on the Illinois Waterway Delivery System

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20

2008
New-Crop December Corn Basis History

Weekly USDA Elevator Bids in North Cental Illinois

-60-50-40-30-20-10

0

10

13

16

19

22

25

28

31

34

37

40

Calendar Week

Cents per Bushel .

2000 2001 2002 202005 2006 2007 20

Source: USDA 
New-Crop November Soybean Basis Histor

Weekly USDA Elevator Bids in North Central Illinois

-120-100

-80-60-40-20

0

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

Calendar Week

Cents per Bushel .

2000 2001 2002 202005 2006 2007 20

Source: USDA 
New-Crop* Corn Hedging

Commercial Traders' Gross Short Positions in CBOT Cor

0

100200300400500600700800

1/4

1/18

2/1

2/15

2/29

3/14

3/28

4/11

4/25

5/9

5/23

6/6

6/20

7/5

Thousand Contracts .

2008

2007

Bars represent 2000-200high/low range

2008 Dates for Comparison

Source: CFTC COT data. * "New-Crop" is Dec

 future and all subsequent futures. 
New-Crop* Wheat Hedging

Commercial Traders' Gross Short Positions in CBOT Wheat 

0

255075

100125150175200225

1/8

1/15

1/22

1/29

2/5

2/12

2/19

2/26

3/4

3/11

3/18

3/25

4/1

4/8

Thousand Contracts .

2008

2007

Bars represent 2000-2high/low range

Source: CFTC COT data. * "New-Crop" is July 2008 Dates for Comparison

 future and all subsequent futures. 
New-Crop* Soybean Hedging

Commercial Traders' Gross Short Positions in CBOT Soyb

0

50

100150200250300350400

1/8

1/22

2/5

2/19

3/4

3/18

4/1

4/15

4/29

5/13

5/27

6/10

6/24

Thousand Contracts . 2008

2007

Bars represent 2000-2006high/low range

2008 Dates for Comparison Source: CFTC COT data. * "New-Crop" is Nov future and all subsequent futures. 
Direct Investment

(Non-Commercial)

Individual

Investors

Seek Commodity 

Index Exposure 

as an Asset Class

Des

Co

Index Trader 

Classification

C

Exc

Financial Services

Firms

Swaps Dealers

Banks

(Commercial)

CTA, CPO &

Hedge Funds

(Non-Commercial)

Commodity Index Futures Trading Overview

For AgIndex primafutureEnergMetalsthree

InstitutionalInvestors-Pension Funds-Endowments-Insurance Cos.
COMMITMENTS OF TRADER

Traditional

WHEAT — CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

OPTION AND FUTURES COMBINED POSITIONS AS OF Apr.8, 200

NONCOMMERCIAL COMMERCIAL TOTAL N

LONG SHORT SPREADS LONG SHORT LONG SHORT LON

 ( CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) OPEN INTEREST: 534,053COMMITMENTS

86,352 56,558 170,150 240,720 249,279 497,222 475,987 36,8

CHANGES FROM Apr. 1, 2008 CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -596

-1,355 1,905 -6,064 5,871 1,746 -1,548 -2,413 952 

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS

16.2 10.6 31.9 45.1 46.7 93.1 89.1 6.9 

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY ( TOTAL TRADERS: 372 )

91 134 157 91 127 292 322 
COMMITMENTS OF TRADER

Supplemental with Commodity Index Traders

WHEAT — CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

OPTIONS AND FUTURES COMBINED POSITIONS AS OF Apr. 8, 2008

NONCOMMERCIAL COMMERCIAL INDEX TRADERS TOTAL N

LONG SHORT SPREADS LONG SHORT LONG SHORT LONG SHORT 

 (CONTRACTS OF 40,000 LBS) OPEN INTEREST: 534,053COMMITMENTS 

56,123 55,646 168,914 56,491 219,817 215,695 31,611 497,222 475,987 

CHANGES FROM APR. 1, 2008 CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -596

-1,451 1,905 -5,617 -808 864 6,328 435 -1,548 -2,413 

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS 

10.5 10.4 31.6 10.6 41.2 40.4 5.9 93.1 89.1 

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 372) 

80 133 152 77 114 25 19 292 322 

-30,229 -184,229
Index Traders' Net Long Positions for COT Supplemental Commo

All Futures and Options (Delta Adjusted) Combined on 4/8/08

0

50

100150200250300350400450500

CATTLE

HOGS

CBT WHEAT

SUGAR

KCBT WHEAT

COFFEE

FEEDERS

SOYBEANS

COTTON

SOYBEAN OIL

CORN

Thousand Contracts .

Index Trader Long Positions% of AFOC Open Interest
Commodity Index Trading In Agricultural M

June 2006 to April 2008

-

250,000500,000750,000

1,000,0001,250,0001,500,0001,750,0002,000,0002,250,000

Jun-06

Jul-06

Aug-06

Sep-06

Oct-06

Nov-06

Dec-06

Jan-07

Feb-07

Mar-07

Apr-07

May-07

Jun-07

Jul-07

Aug-07

Sep-07

Oct-07

Nov-07

Dec-07

Jan-08

Feb-08

Mar-08

Apr-08

Contracts
Wheat Index Traders' Positions and % of Open Inte

All Futures Combined Net Long

Selected Markets, January 2004 - March 2008

0

255075

100125150175200225250

Jan-04

Feb-04

Apr-04

Jun-04

Jul-04

Sep-04

Nov-04

Dec-04

Feb-05

Apr-05

May-05

Jul-05

Aug-05

Oct-05

Dec-05

Feb-06

Mar-06

May-06

Jul-06

Aug-06

Oct-06

Nov-06

Jan-07

Mar-07

May-07

Jun-07

Aug-07

Ot07

Thousand Contracts 

CBOT Wheat Posi

% of AFC Open Inte
THOUSAND CONTRACTS DOLLARS PER BUSHE

1/31/222/72/263/143/304/185/45/226/86/267/137/318/169/49/2010/8 10/2411/9 11/28 12/141/31/222/72/263/13

0

100200300400500

0

-100-200-300-400-500-600-700-800-900 

CBOT Corn Market Composition January 2007 Through Ap

Reportable AFOC Net Daily Positions

COMMERCIAL MERCHANTS = PHYSICAL HANDLER OF GRAINMANAGED MONEY FUNDS = REGISTRATION CODE OF CTA, CPO, OR MANAGED MONEYCIT = COMMODITY INDEX TRADER. AFOC = ALL FUTURES AND OPTIONS COMBINED. OPTIONS AS FUTURES EQUIVALANT

Commercial Merchants Managed Money Funds CIT CBOT Nearby 

LONG SHORT
THOUSAND CONTRACTS DOLLARS PER BUSHE

1/31/182/12/153/23/163/304/164/305/145/296/126/267/117/258/88/229/69/2010/4 10/1811/1 11/15 11/30 12/14 12/311/151/302/132/283/133/28

0

255075

100125150175200225

0

-25-50-75

-100-125-150-175-200-225 

CBOT Wheat Market Composition January 2007 Through Ap

Reportable AFOC Net Daily Positions

COMMERCIAL MERCHANT = PHYSICAL HANDLER OF GRAINMANAGED MONEY = USE CODE OF CPO/CTA/MMCIT = COMMODITY INDEX TRADER. AFOC = ALL FUTURES AND OPTIONS COMBINED. OPTIONS AS FUTURES EQUIVALENT

Commercial Merchants Managed Money CIT CBOT Nearby Fu

LONG SHORT
Thousands DOLLARS PER BUSHE

1/31/222/72/263/143/304/185/45/226/86/267/137/318/169/49/2010/8 10/2411/9 11/28 12/141/31/222/72/263/134/

0

60

120180240

-60

-120-180-240-300-360 

CBOT Soybean Market Composition January 2007 Through A

Reportable AFOC Net Daily Positions

COMMERCIAL MERCHANTS = PHYSICAL HANDLER OF GRAINMANAGED MONEY FUNDS = REGISTRATION CODE OF CTA, CPO, OR MANAGED MONEYCIT = COMMODITY INDEX TRADER. AFOC = ALL FUTURES AND OPTIONS COMBINED. OPTIONS AS FUTURES EQUIVALENT

Commercial Merchants Managed Money Funds CIT CBOT Nearby 

LONG SHORT
MGEX MARCH WHEAT FUTURES LIQUID

1/30/08 THROUGH 3/5/08

Dollars Per Bushel

1/30/08

1/31/08

2/1/08

2/4/08

2/5/08

2/6/08

2/7/08

2/8/08

2/11/08

2/12/08

2/13/08

2/14/08

2/15/08

2/19/08

2/20/08

2/21/08

2/22/08

2/25/08

2/26/08

2/27/08

2/28/08

2/29/08

3/03

12141618202224

SYNTHETIC FUTURE IS CALCULATED BASED ON OPTION TRADING

SYNTHETIC MARCH FUTURES PRICE

MARCH FUTURES PRICE

MINNEAPOLIS CASH PRICE HRSW

NEW DAILY PRICE LIMITS IN EFFECT 2/11

OPTIONS EXPIRATION ON 2/22
May 2008 – ICE Futures U.S. C
Source: USDA Economic Research Service. 

Note: 2006/07 data is a USDA estimate. 2007/08 data is a USDA projection. 2008/09 data represents prospective plfrom National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), USDA dated March 31, 2008. The marketing year begins on Au

U.S. All Cotton Plantings 

8.009.50

11.0012.5014.0015.5017.00

1990/91

1991/92

1992/93

1993/94

1994/95

1995/96

1996/97

1997/98

1998/99

1999/2000

2000/01

2001/02

2002/03

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

Million Acres

Cotton4
Components of U.S. Cotton Total Use

4

5.5

7

8.5

10

11.5

13

14.5

16

17.5

19

1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 

Million 480-Pound Bales

Domestic Mill Use Exports

Source: USDA Economic Research Service. Note: 2006/07 data is a USDA estimate. 2007/08 data is a USDA projection. The marketing year begins on August 1

Cotton2
Source: USDA Economic Research Service. 

Note: 2006/07 data is a USDA estimate. 2007/08 data is a USDA projection. The marketing year begins on August 1

U.S. Cotton Ending Stocks and Stocks-to-use Ratio 

0123456789

10

1990/91

1991/92

1992/93

1993/94

1994/95

1995/96

1996/97

1997/98

1998/99

1999/2000

2000/01

2001/02

2002/03

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

20

Million 480-Pound Bales

Ending Stocks Stocks-to-use Ratio

Cotton3
May 08 Cotton Futures and Spot Prices

4550556065707580859095

100

2/1

2/4

2/7

2/10

2/13

2/16

2/19

2/22

2/25

2/28

3/2

3/5

3/8

3/11

3/14

3/17

3/20

3/23

3/26

3/29

4/1

4/4

4/7

4/10

4/13

4/16
Cotton Basis (Cash - Futures)

-30.00-25.00-20.00-15.00-10.00

-5.00

0.00

2/1

2/4

2/7

2/10

2/13

2/16

2/19

2/22

2/25

2/28

3/2

3/5

3/8

3/11

3/14

3/17

3/20

3/23

3/26

3/29

4/1

4/4

4/7

4/10

4/13

4/16
Cotton Index Traders' Positions and % of Open Inter

All Futures Combined Net Long

Selected Markets, January 2004 - March 2008

0

255075

100125150

Jan-04

Feb-04

Apr-04

Jun-04

Jul-04

Sep-04

Nov-04

Dec-04

Feb-05

Apr-05

May-05

Jul-05

Aug-05

Oct-05

Dec-05

Feb-06

Mar-06

May-06

Jul-06

Aug-06

Oct-06

Nov-06

Jan-07

Mar-07

May-07

Jun-07

Aug-07

Oct07

Thousand Contracts 

ICE/NYBOT Cotton Positions

% of AFC Open Interest
THOUSAND CONTRACTS CENTS PER PO

1/31/222/72/263/143/304/185/45/226/86/267/137/318/169/49/2010/8 10/2411/9 11/28 12/141/31/222/72/263/

0

255075

100125150

0

-25-50-75

-100-125-150-175-200-225-250-275 

ICE Cotton Market Composition January 2007 Through Apr

Reportable AFOC Net Daily Positions

COMMERCIAL MERCHANTS = PHYSICAL HANDLER OF COTTONMANAGED MONEY FUNDS = REGISTRATION CODE OF CTA, CPO, OR MANAGED MONEYCIT = COMMODITY INDEX TRADER. AFOC = ALL FUTURES AND OPTIONS COMBINED. OPTIONS AS FUTURES EQUIVALENT

Commercial Merchants Managed Money Funds CIT ICE Nearby 

LONG SHORT
THOUSAND CONTRACTS CENTS PER POUN

2/12/42/52/62/72/82/112/122/132/142/152/192/202/212/222/252/262/272/282/293/33/43/53/63/73/103/113/123/133/143/173/183/193/203/243/253/263/273/283/314/14

0

255075

100125150

0

-25-50-75

-100-125-150-175-200-225-250-275 

ICE Cotton Market Composition February 2008 Through Ap

Reportable AFOC Net Daily Positions

COMMERCIAL MERCHANTS = PHYSICAL HANDLER OF COTTONMANAGED MONEY FUNDS = REGISTRATION CODE OF CTA, CPO, OR MANAGED MONEYCIT = COMMODITY INDEX TRADER. AFOC = ALL FUTURES AND OPTIONS COMBINED. OPTIONS AS FUTURES EQUIVALENT

Commercial Merchants Managed Money Funds CIT ICE May F

LONG SHORT
ICE Futures Cotton: Certificated Stocks and Spread

4000462552505875650071257750837590009625

1025010875

1/2/08

1/4

1/8

1/10

1/14

1/16

1/18

1/23

1/25

1/29

1/31

2/4

2/6

2/10

2/12

2/14

2/19

2/21

2/25

2/27

2/29

3/4

3/6

3/10

3/12

3/14

3/18

3/20

3/25

3/27

3/31

4/2

4/4

4/8

4/1

Contracts

Certificated Stocks May - July 08

Source: ICE Futures US.
New-Crop* Cotton Hedging

Commercial Traders' Gross Short Positions in ICE/NYBOT Cotto

0

20406080

100120140160180200

1/8

1/22

2/5

2/19

3/4

3/18

4/1

4/15

4/29

5/13

5/27

Thousand Contracts . 2008

2007

Bars represent 2000-2006high/low range

2008 Dates for Comparison Source: CFTC COT data. * "New-Crop" is Oct future and all subsequent futures.