© 2015 CME Group. All rights reserved. 

February 26, 2015 EEMAC Panel 1

Thomas LaSala MD, CRO CME Group
© 2015 CME Group. All rights reserved. 

CFTC Commitment of Traders

16.50%

20.40%

33.10%

24.70%

WTI Crude Oil Long % of OI 

(2012 - 2014)

Commercial Swap Dealer Managed Money Other

18.40%

36.40%

20.30%

20.40%

WTI Crude Oil Short % of OI 

(2012 - 2014)

Commercial Swap Dealer Managed Money Other
© 2015 CME Group. All rights reserved. 

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Number of Unique Participants

WTI Crude Oil (Futures a/o 2-13-14)
© 2015 CME Group. All rights reserved. 

• The decline in net-long index investment in WTI began July 2011; prices began declining

during June 2014—3 years later. Clearly no causality from index investment to prices.

• Since prices began declining, net-long index investment has increased slightly.

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Thousand Contracts

USD per Barrel

WTI Index Investment vs. Prices

Net Long NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures
© 2015 CME Group. All rights reserved. 5

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CFTC Commitment of Traders

Swap Dealer OI

Swap Dealer Net Long NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures Price

• From January 2011 thru June 2014, WTI prices stayed in the range between $85/b and $105/b for the

most part while Swap Dealer positions trended from approximately net-long of zero to

approximately -400,000 contracts. Clearly no discernible impact flowed from Swap Dealer positions

to price.

• Since prices began declining in August 2014, Swap Dealer positions, while still net-short, have

decreased their net-short positions by 200,000-250,000 contracts; in other words the net-long

positions of Swap Dealers has substantially increased while prices were dropping.
© 2015 CME Group. All rights reserved. 6

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CFTC Commitment of Traders

Money Manager OI

Money Manager Net Long NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures Price

• Between January 2011 and July 2014, while prices fluctuated between approximately $85/b and $105/b,

Money Manager net-long positions also fluctuated from approximately 250,000 contracts, down to 100,000

contracts, and then back up to 325,000 contracts. There is no discernible influence evident during this

period emanating from Money Manager positions to price.

• Money Manager net-long positions dropped sharply—by about 125,000 contracts—just as prices dropped

by about $10 per barrel (Aug-Sept 2014), but net-long positions have held steady as prices dropped another

$47 per barrel from October 2014 through January 2015. The evidence clearly supports that during the

period of price reduction, there was no discernible impact emanating from Money Manager positions to

price.
© 2015 CME Group. All rights reserved. 7

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CFTC Commitment of Traders

Commercial OI

Commercial Net Long NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures Price

• Between January 2011 and mid-2013, as prices fluctuated between $85 and $105, Commercial net-long

positions rose by approximately 300,000 contracts. Thereafter, as prices continued to fluctuate until

through July 2014, net-long Commercial positions dropped by approximately 200,000 positions. During

this period, there is no discernible influence emanating from Commercial positions to price. 

• Since prices began falling in Aug 2014, Commercial net-long positions have been shadowing the decline,

falling by approximately 70,000 contracts. It appears that Commercials have increased their short hedges

during this time period, which makes economic sense. Accordingly, the price decline appears to have

influenced adjustments in the net-long positions of Commercials. 
© 2015 CME Group. All rights reserved. 

Futures trading is not suitable for all investors, and involves the risk of loss. Futures are a leveraged investment, and because only a percentage of 

a contract’s value is required to trade, it is possible to lose more than the amount of money deposited for a futures position. Therefore, traders 

should only use funds that they can afford to lose without affecting their lifestyles. And only a portion of those funds should be devoted to any one 

trade because they cannot expect to profit on every trade. All references to options refer to options on futures.

Swaps trading is not suitable for all investors, involves the risk of loss and should only be undertaken by investors who are ECPs within the 

meaning of section 1(a)12 of the Commodity Exchange Act. Swaps are a leveraged investment, and because only a percentage of a contract’s 

value is required to trade, it is possible to lose more than the amount of money deposited for a swaps position. Therefore, traders should only use 

funds that they can afford to lose without affecting their lifestyles. And only a portion of those funds should be devoted to any one trade because 

they cannot expect to profit on every trade.

Any research views expressed are those of the individual author and do not necessarily represent the views of the CME Group or its affiliates.

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York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are registered trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity 

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trademarks are the property of their respective owners. 

The information within this presentation has been compiled by CME Group for general purposes only. CME Group assumes no responsibility for 

any errors or omissions. Additionally, all examples in this presentation are hypothetical situations, used for explanation purposes only, and should 

not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience. 

All matters pertaining to rules and specifications herein are made subject to and are superseded by official Exchange rules. Current rules should be 

consulted in all cases concerning contract specifications.

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