1

Spot RBOB and Ethanol Prices in the NY 

Harbor Barge Market, Monthly Data, 2005-2013

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Cents per Gallon

RBOB Ethanol

Source: Platts; Argus Media.
2

Unleaded Spot Gasoline Price vs. Computed E10 Price 

in NY Harbor Barge Market, Monthly Data, 2005-2013

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Cents per Gallon

E10 Unleaded

Source: Platts; Argus Media; PKVerleger LLC.
3

Flex-Fuel Vehicles in the United States

by Year of Sale

Source: Renewable Fuels Association.

Year Number of Flex-Fuel Vehicles

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

216,165

426,724

600,832

581,774

834,976

859,261

674,678

743,948

1,011,399

1,115,069

1,175,345

805,777

1,484,945

2,116,273

2,466,743
4

EISA 2007 Renewable Fuel Standard 

Volume Requirements (Billion Gallons)

Year

RFS1

Biofuel 

Mandate

in EPAct

of 2005

RFS 2

Total

Renewable 

Fuels

RFS 2

Cap on

CornstarchDerived

Ethanol

Portion from Advanced Biofuels

RFS2

Total NonCornstarchRFS2

Cellulosic

RFS2

Biomassbased

Diesel

RFS2

Other

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

4.0

4.7

5.4

6.1

6.8

7.4

7.5

7.6e

7.7e

7.8e

7.9e

8.1e

8.2e

8.3e

8.4e

8.5e

8.6e

9.00

11.10

12.95

13.95

15.20

16.55

18.15

20.50

22.25

24.00

26.00

28.00

30.00

33.00

36.00

9.0

10.5

12.0

12.6

13.2

13.8

14.4

15.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

0.00

0.60

0.95

1.35

2.00

2.75

3.75

5.50

7.25

9.00

11.00

13.00

15.00

18.00

21.00

0.00

0.00

0.0065

0.006

0.00

0.014

1.75

3.00

4.25

5.50

7.00

8.50

10.50

13.50

16.00

0.00

0.00

1.15

0.80

1.00

1.28

>1.00

>1.00

>1.00

>1.00

>1.00

>1.00

>1.00

>1.00

>1.00

0.00

0.10

0.29

0.54

1.00

1.46

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

3.50

3.50

4.00

e Estimated

Source: “Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Overview and Issues,” Congressional Research Service,

March 14, 2013 [http://goo.gl/QEfXy], p. 3. 
5

EPA Calculation of Required Ethanol Percentage

to Be Blended into Motor Fuels in 2013

2013

(Billion

Gallons)

2013

(Million

Barrels

per Day)

1. Cellulosic Biodiesel

2. Biomass-based Diesel

3. Advanced Biofuels

4. Renewable Fuels

Projected Fuel Use

5. Gasoline

6. Diesel Fuel

7. Renewables Blended into Gasoline

8. Renewables Blended into Diesel

EPA Proposed Standards

Derived from These Data

9. Renewable Fuels (%)

10. Cellulosic Biofuel (%)

11. Biomass-based Diesel (%)

12. Advanced Biofuels (%)

0.014

1.280

2.750

16.550

133.70

52.56

12.85

1.23

9.6

0.008

1.12

1.6

0.001

0.083

0.179

1.080

8.721

3.429

0.838

0.080

Source: US EPA.
6

EIA 2006 Forecast of Gasoline and Diesel Consumption 

vs. Actual Gasoline and Diesel Consumption

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Million Barrels per Day

Projected Actual

Source: US EIA.

EIA Forecast

History

EIA Forecast

Projection
7

US Consumer Expenditures on Gasoline vs. 

Expenditures on All Other Goods, 1995-2013

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

310

5 6 7 8 9 10

Expenditures on All Other Goods (Billions in Chained 2005 Dollars)

Gasoline Expenditures

(Millions in Chained 2005 Dollars)

Source: US BEA.
8

RFS Percentage for 2013

and 2015 (Billion Gallons)

EPA Calculations 2013

2015 High 

Demand

2015 Low 

Demand

Gasoline

Diesel

Renewable Fuels Used in Gasoline 

Renewable Fuels Used in Diesel

Volume of Renewable Fuels Required

Calculated RFS (%)

133.7

52.3

12.9

1.2

16.6

9.6

132.4

51.2

14.1

1.4

20.5

12.2

120.0

48.0

16.0

2.0

20.5

13.7

Source: US EPA.
9

Prices of D6 (Ethanol) RINs in 2013

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Cents per RIN

Prior Year Current Year

Source: Argus Media.
10

National Average Retail Price

for E10 and E85, 2010-2013

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50 Jan-10 May-10

Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13

Dollars per Gallon

E10 E85

Source: OPIS.
11

National Average Retail Price for E10 and for E85 

Adjusted for Lower Energy Content, 2010-2013

2.50

2.70

2.90

3.10

3.30

3.50

3.70

3.90

4.10

4.30

4.50 Jan-10 May-10

Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13

Dollars per Gallon

E10 E85

Source: OPIS; PKVerleger LLC.
12

National Average Retail Price in 2013 for E10, E85 Adjusted 

for Lower Energy Content, and Eighty-Percent Threshold

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Dollars per Gallon

E10 Adjusted E85 Eighty-Percent Threshold

Source: OPIS; PKVerleger LLC.
13

Estimated Monthly E85 Volumes Sold in 

Minnesota, January through May 2013

Month

Volume 

(Thousand 

Gallons)

January

February

March

April

May

711

875

946

1,039

1,885

Source: Minnesota Department of Commerce, 2013 Minnesota E85 + Mid Blends Station Report.
14

Distribution Curve for Discount to E10 Offered 

to E85 Consumers at 301 Stations Nationwide

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

0 20 40 60 80 100

Percentage of Stations Discount to E10

Source: PKVerleger LLC.
15

Percentage of Flex-Fuel Owners 

Choosing E85 vs. E85 to E10 Discount

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

E85 to E10 Discount as a Percentage of E10

E85 Purchases as Percentage of All Fuel Purchases

Source: PKVerleger LLC.
16

Equilibrium RIN Price for Various E10 Retail 

Prices Given a Specific RBOB/Ethanol Spread

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50

Retail E10 Price ($/gal)

Dollars per RIN

$0.25 Spread $0.50 Spread No Spread

Note: Each line traces the RIN price based on the equilibrium gasoline price given a specific spread

between wholesale gasoline prices and wholesale ethanol prices.

Source: PKVerleger LLC.