KalshiEX LLC

August 10, 2023

SUBMITTED VIA CFTC PORTAL

Secretary of the Commission

Office of the Secretariat

U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Three Lafayette Centre

1155 21st Street, N.W.

Washington, D.C. 20581

Re: KalshiEX LLC – CFTC Regulation 40.2(a) Notification Regarding the Initial Listing

of the “Will retail sales growth be <above/below/between> <percent> in <month>?”

Contract

Dear Sir or Madam,

Pursuant to Section 5c(c) of the Commodity Exchange Act and Section 40.2(a) of the regulations of the

Commodity Futures Trading Commission, KalshiEX LLC (Kalshi) hereby notifies the Commission that

it is self-certifying the “Will retail sales growth be <above/below/between> <percent> in <month>?”

contract (Contract). The Exchange intends to list the contract on a monthly basis. The Contract’s terms

and conditions (Appendix A) includes the following strike conditions:

● <percent> (the target level of retail sales growth)

● <month> (the target month)

Along with this letter, Kalshi submits the following documents:

● A concise explanation and analysis of the Contract;

● Certification;

● Appendix A with the Contract’s Terms and Conditions;

● Confidential Appendices with further information; and

● A request for FOIA confidential treatment.

If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact me.

Sincerely,

Xavier Sottile

Head of Markets

KalshiEX LLC

xsottile@kalshi.com

KalshiEX LLC 
KalshiEX LLC

KalshiEX LLC

Official Product Name: Will retail sales growth be <above/below/between> <percent> in <month>?

Rulebook: RETAIL

Kalshi Contract Category: Economic/Demographic Measure – U.S. Government

Retail sales

August 10, 2023

CONCISE EXPLANATION AND ANALYSIS OF THE PRODUCT AND ITS 

COMPLIANCE WITH APPLICABLE PROVISIONS OF THE ACT, INCLUDING CORE 

PRINCIPLES AND THE COMMISSION'S REGULATIONS THEREUNDER 

Pursuant to Commission Rule 40.2(a)(3)(v), the following is a concise explanation and analysis 

of the product and its compliance with the Act, including the relevant Core Principles, and the 

Commission's regulations thereunder. 

I. Introduction 

The “Will retail sales growth be <above/below/between> <percent> in <month>?” 

Contract is a contract relating to whether retail sales will change in the United States in a 

given month. After careful analysis, Kalshi (hereafter referred to as “Exchange”) has 

determined that the Contract complies with its vetting framework. 

Retail sales in a given month are an important measure of economic activity looked at to 

assess the health of the economy. 

Further information about the Contract, including an analysis of its risk mitigation and 

price basing utility, as well as additional considerations related to the Contract, is 

included in Confidential Appendices B, C, and D. 

Pursuant to Section 5c(c) of the Act and CFTC Regulations 40.2(a), the Exchange hereby 

certifies that the listing of the Contract complies with the Act and Commission 

regulations under the Act. 

General Contract Terms and Conditions: The Contract operates similar to other event 

contracts that the Exchange lists for trading. The minimum price fluctuation is $0.01 (one 

cent). Price bands will apply so that Contracts may only be listed at values of at least 

$0.01 and at most $0.99. Further, the Contract is sized with a one-dollar notional value 

and has a minimum price fluctuation of $0.01 to enable Members to match the size of the 

contracts purchased to their economic risks. The Exchange has further imposed position 

limits (defined as maximum loss exposure) of $25,000 USD on the Contract. As outlined 

in Rule 5.12 of the Rulebook, trading shall be available at all times outside of any 

KalshiEX LLC 
KalshiEX LLC

maintenance windows, which will be announced in advance by the Exchange. Members 

will be charged fees in accordance with Rule 3.6 of the Rulebook. Fees are charged in 

such amounts as may be revised from time to time to be reflected on the Exchange’s 

Website. A new Source Agency can be added via a Part 40 amendment. Kalshi would 

announce any such decision on its website. All instructions on how to access the 

Underlying are non-binding and are provided for convenience only and are not part of the 

binding Terms and Conditions of the Contract. They may be clarified at any time. 

Furthermore, the Contract’s payout structure is characterized by the payment of an 

absolute amount to the holder of one side of the option and no payment to the 

counterparty. During the time that trading on the Contract is open, Members are able to 

adjust their positions and trade freely. After trading on the Contract has closed, the 

Expiration Value and Market Outcome are determined. The market is then settled by the 

Exchange, and the long position holders and short position holders are paid according to 

the Market Outcome. In this case, “long position holders” refers to Members who 

purchased the “Yes” side of the Contract and “short position holders” refers to Members 

who purchased the “No” side of the Contract. If the Market Outcome is “Yes,” meaning 

that retail sales are <above/below/between> <percent> for <month>, then the long 

position holders are paid an absolute amount proportional to the size of their position and 

the short position holders receive no payment. If the Market Outcome is “No,” then the 

short position holders are paid an absolute amount proportional to the size of their 

position and the long position holders receive no payment. Specification of the 

circumstances that would trigger a Market Outcome of “Yes” are included below in the 

section titled “Payout Criterion” in Appendix A. 

KalshiEX LLC 
KalshiEX LLC

CERTIFICATIONS PURSUANT TO SECTION 5c OF THE COMMODITY EXCHANGE 

ACT, 7 U.S.C. § 7A-2 AND COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION RULE 

40.2, 17 C.F.R. § 40.2 

Based on the above analysis, the Exchange certifies that: 

❏ The Contract complies with the Act and Commission regulations thereunder. 

❏ This submission (other than those appendices for which confidential treatment has been 

requested) has been concurrently posted on the Exchange’s website at 

https://kalshi.com/regulatory/filings . 

Should you have any questions concerning the above, please contact the exchange at 

ProductFilings@kalshi.com . 

______________________ 

By: Xavier Sottile 

Title: Head of Markets 

Date: August 10, 2023 

KalshiEX LLC 
KalshiEX LLC

Attachments: 

Appendix A - Contract Terms and Conditions 

Appendix B (Confidential) - Further Considerations 

Appendix C (Confidential) - Source Agency 

Appendix D (Confidential) - Compliance with Core Principles 

KalshiEX LLC 
KalshiEX LLC

APPENDIX A – CONTRACT TERMS AND CONDITIONS 

Official Product Name: Will retail sales growth be <above/below/between> <percent> in 

<month>? 

Rulebook: RETAIL 

KalshiEX LLC 
KalshiEX LLC

RETAIL

Scope: These rules shall apply to this contract. 

Underlying: The Underlying for this Contract is the advance estimate of growth in retail and 

food services sales for <month> according to the U.S. Census Bureau, adjusted for seasonal 

variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, and rounded to a 

tenth of a percentage point. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be 

accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. 

Instructions: The Underlying can be found here . 

1 These instructions on how to access the 

Underlying are provided for convenience only and are not part of the binding Terms and 

Conditions of the Contract. They may be clarified at any time. 

Source Agency: The Source Agency is the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 

Type: The type of Contract is an Event Contract. 

Issuance: The Contract is based on the outcome of a recurrent data release, which is issued on a 

monthly basis. Thus, Contract iterations will be issued on a recurring basis, and future Contract 

iterations will generally correspond to the next month. 

<percent>: Kalshi may list iterations of the Contract with <percent> levels that fall within an 

inclusive range between -100% and 100% at consecutive increments of <0.01>. Due to the 

potential for variability in the Underlying, the Exchange may modify <percent> levels in 

response to suggestions by Members. 

<month> : <month> refers to a calendar month specified by Kalshi. Kalshi may list iterations of 

the Contract corresponding to variations <month>. 

Payout Criterion: The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that 

are <above/below/between> <percent>. 

Minimum Tick: The Minimum Tick size for the referred Contract shall be $0.01. 

Position Limit: The Position Limit for the $1 referred Contract shall be $25,000 per Member. 

1 https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html

KalshiEX LLC 
KalshiEX LLC

Last Trading Date: The Last Trading Date of the Contract will be the day of the data release in 

question. For convenience, this can be found at the U.S. Census Bureau schedule here . 

2 The Last 

Trading Time will be 8:25 AM ET. 

Settlement Date: The Settlement Date of the Contract shall be no later than the day after the 

Expiration Date, unless the Market Outcome is under review pursuant to Rule 7.1. 

Expiration Date: The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be the sooner of the date of the first 

10:00 AM ET following the release of the data for <month>, or one week after the Last Trading 

Date. 

Expiration time: The Expiration time of the Contract shall be 10:00 AM ET. 

Settlement Value: The Settlement Value for this Contract is $1.00. 

Expiration Value: The Expiration Value is the value of the Underlying as documented by the 

Source Agency on the Expiration Date at the Expiration time. 

Contingencies: Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market 

Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(c) of the Rulebook. 

2 https://www.census.gov/retail/release_schedule.html. This link is provided for convenience only and the link may

change.

KalshiEX LLC