KalshiEX LLC

May 30, 2023

SUBMITTED VIA CFTC PORTAL

Secretary of the Commission

Office of the Secretariat

U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Three Lafayette Centre

1155 21st Street, N.W.

Washington, D.C. 20581

Re: KalshiEX LLC – CFTC Regulation 40.2(a) Notification Regarding the Initial Listing

of the “Will the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet be <above/below> <count> by <date>?”

Contract

Dear Sir or Madam,

Pursuant to Section 5c(c) of the Commodity Exchange Act and Section 40.2(a) of the regulations of the

Commodity Futures Trading Commission, KalshiEX LLC (Kalshi) hereby notifies the Commission that

it is self-certifying the “Will the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet be <above/below> <count> by <date>?”

contract (Contract). The Exchange intends to list the contract on an annual basis. The Contract’s terms

and conditions (Appendix A) includes the following strike conditions:

● <date> (the target date)

● <count> (the target size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet)

● <above/below>

Along with this letter, Kalshi submits the following documents:

● A concise explanation and analysis of the Contract;

● Certification;

● Appendix A with the Contract’s Terms and Conditions;

● Confidential Appendices with further information; and

● A request for FOIA confidential treatment.

If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact me.

Sincerely,

Xavier Sottile

Head of Markets

KalshiEX LLC

xsottile@kalshi.com

KalshiEX LLC
KalshiEX LLC

KalshiEX LLC

Official Product Name: Will the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet be <above/below> <count> by <date>?

Rulebook: FEDBALANCE

Kalshi Contract Category: Political Decision

Fed Balance Sheet Size

May 30, 2023

CONCISE EXPLANATION AND ANALYSIS OF THE PRODUCT AND ITS

COMPLIANCE WITH APPLICABLE PROVISIONS OF THE ACT, INCLUDING CORE

PRINCIPLES AND THE COMMISSION'S REGULATIONS THEREUNDER

Pursuant to Commission Rule 40.2(a)(3)(v), the following is a concise explanation and analysis

of the product and its compliance with the Act, including the relevant Core Principles, and the

Commission's regulations thereunder.

I. Introduction

The “Will the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet be <above/below> <count> by <date>?”

Contract is a contract relating to the total value of the Federal Reserve’s assets. After

careful analysis, Kalshi (hereafter referred to as “Exchange”) has determined that the

Contract complies with its vetting framework.

Since the beginning of its asset purchasing programs in late 2008 (often called

quantitative easing), asset purchases have become a more regular tool in the Federal

Reserve’s toolbox. The balance sheet has expanded from less than $1 trillion in 2008 to

almost $9 trillion in 2023.

Further information about the Contract, including an analysis of its risk mitigation and

price basing utility, as well as additional considerations related to the Contract, is

included in Confidential Appendices B, C, and D.

Pursuant to Section 5c(c) of the Act and CFTC Regulations 40.2(a), the Exchange hereby

certifies that the listing of the Contract complies with the Act and Commission

regulations under the Act.

General Contract Terms and Conditions: The Contract operates similar to other event

contracts that the Exchange lists for trading. The minimum price fluctuation is $0.01 (one

cent). Price bands will apply so that Contracts may only be listed at values of at least

$0.01 and at most $0.99. Further, the Contract is sized with a one-dollar notional value

and has a minimum price fluctuation of $0.01 to enable Members to match the size of the

contracts purchased to their economic risks. The Exchange has further imposed position

KalshiEX LLC
KalshiEX LLC

limits (defined as maximum loss exposure) of $25,000 USD on the Contract. As outlined

in Rule 5.12 of the Rulebook, trading shall be available at all times outside of any

maintenance windows, which will be announced in advance by the Exchange. Members

will be charged fees in accordance with Rule 3.6 of the Rulebook. Fees are charged in

such amounts as may be revised from time to time to be reflected on the Exchange’s

Website. Additionally, as outlined in Rule 7.2 of the Rulebook, if any event or any

circumstance which may have a material impact on the reliability or transparency of a

Contract’s Source Agency or the Underlying related to the Contract arises, Kalshi retains

the authority to designate a new Source Agency and Underlying for that Contract and to

change any associated Contract specifications after the first day of trading. That new

Source Agency and Underlying would be objective and verifiable. Kalshi would

announce any such decision on its website. All instructions on how to access the

Underlying are non-binding and are provided for convenience only and are not part of the

binding Terms and Conditions of the Contract. They may be clarified at any time.

Furthermore, the Contract’s payout structure is characterized by the payment of an

absolute amount to the holder of one side of the option and no payment to the

counterparty. During the time that trading on the Contract is open, Members are able to

adjust their positions and trade freely. After trading on the Contract has closed, the

Expiration Value and Market Outcome are determined. The market is then settled by the

Exchange, and the long position holders and short position holders are paid according to

the Market Outcome. In this case, “long position holders” refers to Members who

purchased the “Yes” side of the Contract and “short position holders” refers to Members

who purchased the “No” side of the Contract. If the Market Outcome is “Yes,” meaning

that the Federal Reserve’s assets are <above/below> <count> by <date> (please see

Appendix A for full details), then the long position holders are paid an absolute amount

proportional to the size of their position and the short position holders receive no

payment. If the Market Outcome is “No,” then the short position holders are paid an

absolute amount proportional to the size of their position and the long position holders

receive no payment. Specification of the circumstances that would trigger a Market

Outcome of “Yes” are included below in the section titled “Payout Criterion” in

Appendix A.

KalshiEX LLC
KalshiEX LLC

CERTIFICATIONS PURSUANT TO SECTION 5c OF THE COMMODITY EXCHANGE

ACT, 7 U.S.C. § 7A-2 AND COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION RULE

40.2, 17 C.F.R. § 40.2

Based on the above analysis, the Exchange certifies that:

❏ The Contract complies with the Act and Commission regulations thereunder.

❏ This submission (other than those appendices for which confidential treatment has been

requested) has been concurrently posted on the Exchange’s website at

https://kalshi.com/regulatory/filings.

Should you have any questions concerning the above, please contact the exchange at

ProductFilings@kalshi.com.

______________________

By: Xavier Sottile

Title: Head of Markets

Date: May 30, 2023

KalshiEX LLC
KalshiEX LLC

Attachments:

Appendix A - Contract Terms and Conditions

Appendix B (Confidential) - Further Considerations

Appendix C (Confidential) - Source Agency

Appendix D (Confidential) - Compliance with Core Principles

KalshiEX LLC
KalshiEX LLC

APPENDIX A – CONTRACT TERMS AND CONDITIONS

Official Product Name: Will the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet be <above/below>

<count> by <date>?

Rulebook: FEDBALANCE

KalshiEX LLC
KalshiEX LLC

FEDBALANCE

Scope: These rules shall apply to this contract.

Underlying: The Underlying for this Contract is the total assets (less assets from consolidation)

of Federal Reserve Banks per the Federal Reserve’s H.4.1 release between Issuance and <date>.

Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the

Expiration Value.

Instructions: The Underlying can be accessed here.

1 These instructions on how to access the

Underlying are provided for convenience only and are not part of the binding Terms and

Conditions of the Contract. They may be clarified at any time.

Source Agency: The Source Agency is the Federal Reserve System.

Type: The type of Contract is an Event Contract.

Issuance: The Contract will be listed on an annual basis.

<count>: Kalshi may list iterations of the Contract with <count> levels that fall within an

inclusive range between 0 and 1,000,000,000,000,000 at consecutive increments of <0.01>. Due

to the potential for variability in the Underlying, the Exchange may modify <count> levels in

response to suggestions by Members.

<date>: <date> refers to a calendar date specified by Kalshi. Kalshi may list iterations of the

Contract corresponding to different statistical periods of <date>.

Payout Criterion: The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that

are <above/below> <count>.

Minimum Tick: The Minimum Tick size for the referred Contract shall be $0.01.

Position Limit: The Position Limit for the $1 referred Contract shall be $25,000 per Member.

Last Trading Date: The Last Trading Date of the Contract will be the sooner of the first 10:00

AM ET following the occurrence of an event encompassed by the Payout Criterion (whereupon

the Last Trading Time will be 10:00 AM ET) or <date> (whereupon the Last Trading Time will

be 11:59 PM ET).

1 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL

KalshiEX LLC
KalshiEX LLC

Settlement Date: The Settlement Date of the Contract shall be no later than the day after the

Expiration Date, unless the Market Outcome is under review pursuant to Rule 7.1.

Expiration Date: The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be the sooner of the date of the first

10:00 AM ET following the occurrence of an event that is encompassed in the Payout Criterion,

the date of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of the data for all of <date>, or one week

after <date>.

Expiration time: The Expiration time of the Contract shall be 10:00 AM ET.

Settlement Value: The Settlement Value for this Contract is $1.00.

Expiration Value: The Expiration Value is the value of the Underlying as documented by the

Source Agency on the Expiration Date at the Expiration time.

Contingencies: Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market

Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(c) of the Rulebook. Additionally, as outlined in

Rule 7.2 of the Rulebook, if any event or any circumstance which may have a material impact on

the reliability or transparency of a Contract’s Source Agency or the Underlying related to the

Contract arises, Kalshi retains the authority to designate a new Source Agency and Underlying

for that Contract and to change any associated Contract specifications after the first day of

trading.

KalshiEX LLC