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#           Disease Decision Analysis and Research      

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The Disease Decision Analysis and Research group is a multi-disciplinary team based out of the Eastern Ecological Science Center whose strengths are in ecology, decision sciences and quantitative modeling.

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For almost two decades, the Eastern Ecological Science Center (EESC) has been an international leader in wildlife disease ecology, quantitative ecology, and decision science. EESC has played an instrumental role in understanding and planning management responses to disease systems including white-nose syndrome, Lyme disease, avian influenza, *Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal),* and other emerging and zoonotic diseases. At the same time, EESC have used the principles of decision science to aid decision makers in the Department of Interior as well as other federal and state agencies, in topics as diverse as endangered species recovery and large river management. In recent years, EESC scientists have turned attention to the application of decision science to disease management problems, with the ability to integrate field and experimental studies, advanced statistical analyses, spatial epidemiological modeling, and decision analysis.

EESC has worked with management agency partners at Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. National Park Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Forest Service, Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies, and other agencies to provide actionable science related to wildlife and human disease management. In recognition of the emerging capabilities at the interface of science and management, and in response to an increasing number of partner agency requests for help in developing and evaluating options for wildlife disease management, EESC established the Disease Decision Analysis and Research group in 2021 as an inter-disciplinary and cross-center project develop tools and analysis that aid decision makers in managing diseases with a wildlife nexus.

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Presidential Early Career Awards for Scientists and Engineers (PECASE)

Acting under high levels of uncertainty is a hallmark of wildlife disease management, and the use of formal decision analytics (e.g., multi-criteria decision analysis, risk analysis, and cost-benefit analysis within a structured or adaptive management framework) is useful and increasingly necessary as a rational and transparent framework to support management of diseases and mitigation of disease risk. Decision analytic approaches can examine trade-offs between managing in the face of uncertainty and waiting to act in order to gain additional disease information, as well as identify key trade-offs among objectives which are often highly influential in optimizing disease responses.

The increasing number of novel infectious diseases of wildlife, and the human nexus in pathogen transmission, outbreaks, and zoonotics has resulted in substantial population declines in fish and wildlife species and biodiversity losses. Uncertainty in the ecological system is often a principal challenge and is a focus of research for Evan Grant, Diann Prosser, and Howard Ginsberg. Other major challenges include limited control options for the initial introduction of disease; widely dispersed populations over multiple states and regions; fragmented management authority and responsibility by diverse agencies (e.g. tribal, state, federal, and non-profits); and deep uncertainties in ecological characteristics of the pathogens, host populations, and the effectiveness of potential treatments.

Although there are substantial variations in pathogen, host, and environmental characteristics among invasive pathogens, we find that there are similar challenges to disease management decisions. Our team’s decision analysts Evan Grant, Jonathan Cook and Michael Runge help managers to recognize and address all possible impediments to effective responses –including elements of complexity in the social and the ecological systems, conflict in missions and mandates of resources that overlap multiple jurisdictions, a need for predictions to help identify the best option despite the multiple layers of complexity, and a need to improve creativity as there are often few tools available to respond to disease.

**Explore our disease decision analysis and research: **

 

Avian Influenza

## Avian Influenza

Chronic Wasting Disease

## Chronic Wasting Disease

SARS-CoV-2 in Wildlife and Humans

## SARS-CoV-2 in Wildlife and Humans

Amphibian Diseases

## Amphibian Diseases

White-nose Syndrome

## White-nose Syndrome

Vector-borne Diseases

## Vector-borne Diseases

## Related Content

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October 15, 2020

####                 Principles and mechanisms of wildlife population persistence in the face of disease              

Ecosystems Mission Area, Biological Threats and Invasive Species Research Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center, National Wildlife Health Center

December 9, 2019

####                 Successful molecular detection studies require clear communication among diverse research partners              

Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center, National Wildlife Health Center

February 26, 2019

####                 Disease‐structured N‐mixture models: A practical guide to model disease dynamics using count data              

Ecosystems Mission Area, Biological Threats and Invasive Species Research Program, Species Management Research Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center

One Health and Structured Decision Making

November 2, 2022

####   One Health and Structured Decision Making

November 3 is One Health Day. One Health is the idea that the health of people is connected to the health of animals and our shared environment.

Read Article

First Study to Track a Wild Bird Known to Have Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza

October 26, 2022

####   First Study to Track a Wild Bird Known to Have Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza

**LAUREL, Md.**— For the first time, scientists have tracked the movement of a wild bird known to be infected with highly pathogenic avian influenza in...

Read Article

Friday's Findings - February 11 2022

February 1, 2022

####   Friday's Findings - February 11 2022

**Date**: February 11, 2022, from 2-2:30 p.m. eastern time

**Speakers: **Diann Prosser, Research Wildlife Ecologist, USGS Eastern Ecological Science Center

Read Article

Current Science on Tick-Borne Diseases in Rhode Island

November 12, 2021

####   Current Science on Tick-Borne Diseases in Rhode Island

A new article led by the USGS summarizes what’s happening in Rhode Island, specifically what diseases transmitted by ticks are present, which tick...

Read Article

New Insight on the Potential for Blue-Winged Teal to Transfer Avian Influenza to Domestic Poultry

September 21, 2021

####   New Insight on the Potential for Blue-Winged Teal to Transfer Avian Influenza to Domestic Poultry

A first-of-its-kind study by the USGS and partners provides an initial analysis of when commercial chicken and turkey facilities in the U.S. are at...

Read Article

USGS Participates in USDA Highly Pathogenic (HP) Avian Influenza (AI) and Wild Birds Webinar Series

September 7, 2021

####   USGS Participates in USDA Highly Pathogenic (HP) Avian Influenza (AI) and Wild Birds Webinar Series

Several USGS scientists recently participated in a USDA Veterinary Services Training and Exercise Program (VSTEP) Webinar series****on Highly Pathogenic...

Read Article

USGS-Led Study Helps in the Fight  Against the Coronavirus Pandemic

July 14, 2021

####   USGS-Led Study Helps in the Fight  Against the Coronavirus Pandemic

With few additional targeted tests and non-invasive surveys, public health agencies can better estimate disease occurrence and trends, changes in...

Read Article

Low Risk of Researchers Passing Coronavirus to North American Bats

March 30, 2021

####   Low Risk of Researchers Passing Coronavirus to North American Bats

The risk is low that scientists could pass coronavirus to North American bats during winter research, according to a new study led by the U.S...

Read Article

It’s the Heat and the Humidity, New Study Finds: Why Lyme Disease is Common in the North, Rare in the South

January 11, 2017

####   It’s the Heat and the Humidity, New Study Finds: Why Lyme Disease is Common in the North, Rare in the South

When it's hot and not too muggy, Lyme disease-bearing ticks hide out where people don't tread. Scientists say that's why the illness is rare in the...

Read Article

#### Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (AFWA)

#### Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

#### National Park Service (NPS)

#### U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)

#### U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

#### U.S. Forest Service (USFS)

## Related Content

October 15, 2020

####                 Principles and mechanisms of wildlife population persistence in the face of disease              

Ecosystems Mission Area, Biological Threats and Invasive Species Research Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center, National Wildlife Health Center

December 9, 2019

####                 Successful molecular detection studies require clear communication among diverse research partners              

Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center, National Wildlife Health Center

February 26, 2019

####                 Disease‐structured N‐mixture models: A practical guide to model disease dynamics using count data              

Ecosystems Mission Area, Biological Threats and Invasive Species Research Program, Species Management Research Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center

One Health and Structured Decision Making

November 2, 2022

####   One Health and Structured Decision Making

November 3 is One Health Day. One Health is the idea that the health of people is connected to the health of animals and our shared environment.

Read Article

First Study to Track a Wild Bird Known to Have Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza

October 26, 2022

####   First Study to Track a Wild Bird Known to Have Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza

**LAUREL, Md.**— For the first time, scientists have tracked the movement of a wild bird known to be infected with highly pathogenic avian influenza in...

Read Article

Friday's Findings - February 11 2022

February 1, 2022

####   Friday's Findings - February 11 2022

**Date**: February 11, 2022, from 2-2:30 p.m. eastern time

**Speakers: **Diann Prosser, Research Wildlife Ecologist, USGS Eastern Ecological Science Center

Read Article

Current Science on Tick-Borne Diseases in Rhode Island

November 12, 2021

####   Current Science on Tick-Borne Diseases in Rhode Island

A new article led by the USGS summarizes what’s happening in Rhode Island, specifically what diseases transmitted by ticks are present, which tick...

Read Article

New Insight on the Potential for Blue-Winged Teal to Transfer Avian Influenza to Domestic Poultry

September 21, 2021

####   New Insight on the Potential for Blue-Winged Teal to Transfer Avian Influenza to Domestic Poultry

A first-of-its-kind study by the USGS and partners provides an initial analysis of when commercial chicken and turkey facilities in the U.S. are at...

Read Article

USGS Participates in USDA Highly Pathogenic (HP) Avian Influenza (AI) and Wild Birds Webinar Series

September 7, 2021

####   USGS Participates in USDA Highly Pathogenic (HP) Avian Influenza (AI) and Wild Birds Webinar Series

Several USGS scientists recently participated in a USDA Veterinary Services Training and Exercise Program (VSTEP) Webinar series****on Highly Pathogenic...

Read Article

USGS-Led Study Helps in the Fight  Against the Coronavirus Pandemic

July 14, 2021

####   USGS-Led Study Helps in the Fight  Against the Coronavirus Pandemic

With few additional targeted tests and non-invasive surveys, public health agencies can better estimate disease occurrence and trends, changes in...

Read Article

Low Risk of Researchers Passing Coronavirus to North American Bats

March 30, 2021

####   Low Risk of Researchers Passing Coronavirus to North American Bats

The risk is low that scientists could pass coronavirus to North American bats during winter research, according to a new study led by the U.S...

Read Article

It’s the Heat and the Humidity, New Study Finds: Why Lyme Disease is Common in the North, Rare in the South

January 11, 2017

####   It’s the Heat and the Humidity, New Study Finds: Why Lyme Disease is Common in the North, Rare in the South

When it's hot and not too muggy, Lyme disease-bearing ticks hide out where people don't tread. Scientists say that's why the illness is rare in the...

Read Article

#### Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (AFWA)

#### Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

#### National Park Service (NPS)

#### U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)

#### U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

#### U.S. Forest Service (USFS)

### Contacts

#### Jonathan Cook, Ph.D.

##### Research Wildlife Biologist

Eastern Ecological Science Center

jcook@usgs.gov

301-497-5500

#### Howard Ginsberg, Ph.D.

##### Scientist Emeritus

Eastern Ecological Science Center

hginsberg@usgs.gov

#### Evan Grant, Ph.D.

##### Research Wildlife Biologist

Eastern Ecological Science Center

ehgrant@usgs.gov

413-863-3823

#### Diann Prosser, Ph.D.

##### Research Biologist

Eastern Ecological Science Center

dprosser@usgs.gov

301-497-5914

#### Michael Runge, Ph.D.

##### Research Ecologist

Eastern Ecological Science Center

mrunge@usgs.gov

301-497-5748