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#           Fire and Climate Suitability for Woody Vegetation Communities in the South Central United States      

  Completed

      By Columbia Environmental Research Center      June 6, 2018    

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Climate and fire are global drivers of plant species distributions in the south central United States. Long-term management of vegetation communities can benefit from information on projected spatial changes in climate and fire frequencies.

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**The Issue: **In the south central US, climate is a key factor in the historical high wildfire frequencies in east Texas and Oklahoma as well as the spatially variable historical wildfire frequency in west Texas and New Mexico. Long-term management of vegetation communities can benefit from information on projected spatial changes in climate and fire frequencies.  For example, future rearrangement of conditions under which certain communities have been dominant may expand or contract relative to historic patterns. Environmental suitability models can indicate where on the landscape future conditions favoring communities dominated by long-lived tree species might occur.

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**Addressing the Issue:  **The primary objective of our work was to develop simple models to spatially relate fire probability and climate conditions to historic distributions of important woody communities in Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico USA, and project where on the landscape these conditions might occur in the future. The modeled communities included an oak type dominated by post oak and blackjack oak (*Quercus stellata* and *Q. marilandica*), a mesquite type dominated by honey mesquite and velvet mesquite (*Prosopis glandulosa* and *P. velutina*), and a pinyon-juniper type dominated by pinyon pine and Utah juniper (*Pinus edulis* and *Juniperus osteosperma*).  Collaborators from the University of Missouri used downscaled climate projections in their Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model to calculate and map future fire probabilities for 2020 – 2069 and 2070 – 2099.

**Results:**We developed fire-climate suitability models for each community using projected future climate and fire probabilities as inputs in the modeling freeware MAXENT. We mapped future fire-climate suitability and locations of threshold conditions for each vegetation community. The inclusion of fire probabilities adds an important driver of vegetation distribution to environmental envelope modeling for woody communities. Results showed potential future de-coupling and spatial re-arrangement of environmental conditions under which these communities have historically persisted and been managed. In particular, maps that show consensus among all models regarding continued environmental suitability through the twenty-first century can inform long-term planning for maintenance or restoration of these communities, indicating locations in which they might be maintained, restored, or established.

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Return to Conservation, Quantitative, and Restoration Ecology

### Contacts

#### Matthew Struckhoff

##### Ecologist

Columbia Environmental Research Center

mstruckhoff@usgs.gov

573-441-2781

### Explore Search

                      - Ecological Restoration
                      - Conservation, Quantitative, and Restoration Ecology
                      - Browse All Research Projects

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Below are publications associated with this project.

March 1, 2018

####                 Fire and climate suitability for woody vegetation communities in the south central United States              

Ecosystems Mission Area, Columbia Environmental Research Center, Wildland Fire Science

February 28, 2018

####                 Future southcentral US wildfire probability due to climate change              

Ecosystems Mission Area, Columbia Environmental Research Center, Wildland Fire Science

Below are partners associated with this project.

#### University of Missouri

Climate and fire are global drivers of plant species distributions in the south central United States. Long-term management of vegetation communities can benefit from information on projected spatial changes in climate and fire frequencies.

View Media Details

View Media Details

**The Issue: **In the south central US, climate is a key factor in the historical high wildfire frequencies in east Texas and Oklahoma as well as the spatially variable historical wildfire frequency in west Texas and New Mexico. Long-term management of vegetation communities can benefit from information on projected spatial changes in climate and fire frequencies.  For example, future rearrangement of conditions under which certain communities have been dominant may expand or contract relative to historic patterns. Environmental suitability models can indicate where on the landscape future conditions favoring communities dominated by long-lived tree species might occur.

View Media Details

**Addressing the Issue:  **The primary objective of our work was to develop simple models to spatially relate fire probability and climate conditions to historic distributions of important woody communities in Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico USA, and project where on the landscape these conditions might occur in the future. The modeled communities included an oak type dominated by post oak and blackjack oak (*Quercus stellata* and *Q. marilandica*), a mesquite type dominated by honey mesquite and velvet mesquite (*Prosopis glandulosa* and *P. velutina*), and a pinyon-juniper type dominated by pinyon pine and Utah juniper (*Pinus edulis* and *Juniperus osteosperma*).  Collaborators from the University of Missouri used downscaled climate projections in their Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model to calculate and map future fire probabilities for 2020 – 2069 and 2070 – 2099.

**Results:**We developed fire-climate suitability models for each community using projected future climate and fire probabilities as inputs in the modeling freeware MAXENT. We mapped future fire-climate suitability and locations of threshold conditions for each vegetation community. The inclusion of fire probabilities adds an important driver of vegetation distribution to environmental envelope modeling for woody communities. Results showed potential future de-coupling and spatial re-arrangement of environmental conditions under which these communities have historically persisted and been managed. In particular, maps that show consensus among all models regarding continued environmental suitability through the twenty-first century can inform long-term planning for maintenance or restoration of these communities, indicating locations in which they might be maintained, restored, or established.

Return to Ecological Restoration

Return to Conservation, Quantitative, and Restoration Ecology

### Contacts

#### Matthew Struckhoff

##### Ecologist

Columbia Environmental Research Center

mstruckhoff@usgs.gov

573-441-2781

### Explore Search

                      - Ecological Restoration
                      - Conservation, Quantitative, and Restoration Ecology
                      - Browse All Research Projects

View All **

Below are publications associated with this project.

March 1, 2018

####                 Fire and climate suitability for woody vegetation communities in the south central United States              

Ecosystems Mission Area, Columbia Environmental Research Center, Wildland Fire Science

February 28, 2018

####                 Future southcentral US wildfire probability due to climate change              

Ecosystems Mission Area, Columbia Environmental Research Center, Wildland Fire Science

Below are partners associated with this project.

#### University of Missouri