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# State Fire Death Risk

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##### In this section

                - Reports
                - Death & Injury Risk                   - States
                  - Children
                  - Older Adults
                  - Injury Risk
                - Residential Fires
                - Nonresidential Fires
                - Outside & Vehicle Fires
                - Firefighter Fatalities
                - Fire Department Registry
                - State Statistics
                - Data Sets

## In 2021:

People living in 28 states and the District of Columbia had a higher risk of dying in a fire than the general population.

Alaska, the District of Columbia and Mississippi residents had the highest risk of dying in a fire.

People living in Massachusetts, New Jersey and Utah had the lowest risk of dying in a fire.

### Relative risk of dying in a fire by state (2021)

Sources: National Center for Health Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau

## 2021 fire deaths, fire death rates and relative risk by state

Notes:
                - Fire death rates are based on all deaths in which exposure to fire, fire products or explosion was the underlying cause of death or was a contributing factor in the chain of events leading to death. Specifically, ICD 10 Codes: F63.1, W39-W40, X00-X09, X75-X76, X96-X97, Y25-Y26, and Y35.1 were extracted for this analysis, resulting in a total of 4,316 fire deaths.
                - The fire death rates presented here reflect the crude death rates and are not age adjusted. The crude death rate is the total number of fire deaths per state divided by the total population per state and multiplied by 1,000,000. These crude death rates should not be used for comparisons between states due to the significant impact of age in mortality data and different age distributions in different state populations.
                - * Indicates states where fire death rates and relative risk were not computed due to very small numbers of fire deaths (fewer than 10 deaths).
                - ** Fire death rates should be used with caution due to small numbers of deaths. Per the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), National Vital Statistics Reports Volume 60, No. 4, “Deaths: Preliminary Data for 2010,” a rate or percentage is based on at least 20 deaths. Rates based on fewer than 20 deaths are considered highly variable.

Sources:
                - NCHS. 2021 Mortality Data File, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program.
                - U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2021, population estimates from the table Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States, Regions, States, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2022 (NST-EST2022-POP). Release date: December 2022.

## Understanding this information

Although many regional factors, such as climate, poverty, education and demographics, affect fire issues in the United States, one of the most useful ways to compare fire fatalities across groups of people is to look at their relative risk of dying in a fire.

## What is relative risk?

Relative risk compares the per capita rate of a particular group to the overall per capita rate (for example, the U.S. general population). The relative risk of the overall U.S. population is always set at 1.

Here are 2 examples that show how relative risk is used to compare fire fatalities:
                  - The relative risk of dying in a fire in Alabama in 2021 was 1.8. This means that Alabama residents were 1.8 times more likely to die in a fire than the overall U.S. population.
                  - The relative risk of dying in a fire in Utah in 2021 was 0.5. This means that Utah residents were 50% less likely to die in a fire than the overall U.S. population.

## What does per capita mean?

To account for population differences, per capita rates are used. Per capita rates use a common population size, which then permits comparisons between different groups. Per capita rates are determined by the number of deaths or injuries occurring to a specific population group divided by the total population for that group. This ratio is then multiplied by a common population size.

For the purposes of this analysis, per capita rates for fire deaths are measured per 1 million persons. For example, the 2021 per capita fire death rate for the total population is computed from the total number of fire deaths (4,316), divided by the total population (332,031,554), multiplied by 1,000,000 people. This rate is equivalent to 13.0 deaths per 1 million population.

## How are fire death rate trends determined?

Fire death rates are measured by deaths per million population. Trends are computed to show how the rates have changed over time by smoothing fluctuations or variations in data from year-to-year.

Page last reviewed: Aug. 2, 2023

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