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# Child Fire Death Risk

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##### In this section

                - Reports
                - Death & Injury Risk                   - States
                  - Children
                  - Older Adults
                  - Injury Risk
                - Residential Fires
                - Nonresidential Fires
                - Outside & Vehicle Fires
                - Firefighter Fatalities
                - Fire Department Registry
                - State Statistics
                - Data Sets

## In 2021, children ages:

0-4 had a higher relative risk of dying in a fire compared to older children.

5-9 had a relative risk of dying in a fire that was 60% less than the general population.

10-14 had a relative risk of dying in a fire that was 80% less than the general population.

## Child fire deaths, fire death rates and relative risk (2012-2021)

                - Ages 0 to 14
                - Ages 0 to 4
                - Ages 5 to 9
                - Ages 10 to 14

### Ages 0 to 14

The overall trend in the fire death rate of children ages 0 to 14 decreased 5% from 2012 to 2021 and the relative risk of dying in a fire was less than that of the general population. In 2021, the relative risk of dying in a fire for children ages 14 and under was 60% less than that of the general population.

### Ages 0 to 4

For children under the age of 5, the fire death rate trend decreased 18% over the 10-year period. Children of this age group, however, have the highest fire death rates among children of all ages and, as a result, are at a higher relative risk of dying in a fire when compared to older children.

Prior to 2006, the youngest children (ages 0 to 4) had fire death rates that were slightly higher than that of the general population. Recent data indicate that this trend has changed. From 2012 to 2021, the fire death rates of children ages 4 and younger were less than that of the general population. This decline may be attributed, in part, to an increase in public fire education and prevention efforts. From 2019 to 2021, the relative risk of dying in a fire for the youngest children was 50% lower than that of the general population — the lowest relative risk for this age group since the U.S. Fire Administration began tracking the relative risk of dying in a fire in the mid-1970s.

### Ages 5 to 9

For children ages 5 to 9, the fire death rate trend increased 8% over the 10-year period. In 2021, however, the relative risk of dying in a fire for children ages 5 to 9 was 0.4 or 60% less than that of the general population, although 10% higher than it was in 2020 when the relative risk was 0.3 or 70% less than that of the general population.

### Ages 10 to 14

From 2012 to 2021, the fire death rate trend increased 17% for children ages 10 to 14. In 2021, however, the relative risk of dying in a fire for children of this age group was 0.2 or 80% less than that of the general population as it also was in 2019 and 2020. In addition, although the trend in the fire death rate has increased for children of this age group, they still have the lowest relative risk of dying in a fire compared to younger children.

Notes:

The computation of the trend is based on the simple linear regression method of least squares. The numbers of fire deaths are adjusted for those deaths where age was not reported.

Sources:
                  - National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). 2012-2021 Mortality Data Files, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program.
                  - U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2012-2019, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2020 (NC-EST2020-AGESEX-RES). Release date: May 2021.
                  - U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2020-2021, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2022 (NC-EST2022-AGESEX-RES). Release date: April 2023.

## Understanding this information

Although many regional factors, such as climate, poverty, education and demographics, affect fire issues in the United States, one of the most useful ways to compare fire fatalities across groups of people is to look at their relative risk of dying in a fire.

## What is relative risk?

Relative risk compares the per capita rate of a particular group to the overall per capita rate (for example, the U.S. general population). The relative risk of the overall U.S. population is always set at 1.

Here are 2 examples that show how relative risk is used to compare fire fatalities:
                  - The relative risk of a child ages 0 to 14 dying in a fire in 2021 was 0.4. This means that a child in that age group was 60% less likely to die in a fire than the overall U.S. population.
                  - The relative risk of a child ages 0 to 4 dying in a fire in 2021 was 0.5. This means that a child in that age group was 50% less likely to die in a fire than the overall U.S. population.

## What does per capita mean?

To account for population differences, per capita rates are used. Per capita rates use a common population size, which then permits comparisons between different groups. Per capita rates are determined by the number of deaths or injuries occurring to a specific population group divided by the total population for that group. This ratio is then multiplied by a common population size.

For the purposes of this analysis, per capita rates for fire deaths are measured per 1 million persons. For example, the 2021 per capita fire death rate for the total child (ages 0 to 14) population is computed from the total number of child fire deaths (308) divided by the total child population (59,928,437) multiplied by 1,000,000 persons. This rate is equivalent to 5.1 deaths per 1 million population.

## How are fire death rate trends determined?

Fire death rates are measured by deaths per million population. Trends are computed to show how the rates have changed over time by smoothing fluctuations or variations in data from year-to-year.

Page last reviewed: Aug. 2, 2023

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