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# Older Adult Fire Death Risk

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##### In this section

                - Reports
                - Death & Injury Risk                   - States
                  - Children
                  - Older Adults
                  - Injury Risk
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## Older adults compared to the general population (2021):

Ages 65-74 had 2.2 times the risk of dying in a fire. The 10-year (2012‑2021) fire death rate trend for this age group increased 36%.

Ages 75-84 had 3.1 times the risk of dying in a fire. The 10-year (2012‑2021) fire death rate trend for this age group increased nearly 4%.

Ages 85 and over had the highest relative risk among the general population of dying in a fire.

## Older adult fire deaths, fire death rates and relative risk (2012‑2021)

              - Ages 65 and over
              - Ages 65 to 74
              - Ages 75 to 84
              - Ages 85 and over

### Ages 65 and over

The trend in the fire death rate per million population for older adults (ages 65 and over) increased 16% from 2012 to 2021. In 2021, the fire death rate for people in this age group was 33.9 deaths per million population – the highest fire death rate for this age group over the 10 years. The older adult population faces the greatest relative risk of dying in a fire. In 2021, the relative risk of dying in a fire for older adults was 2.6 times higher than that of the general population.

### Ages 65 to 74

The trend in the fire death rate per million population for older adults (ages 65 to 74) increased 36% over the 10-year period. In 2021, the fire death rate for people in this age group was 28.5 deaths per million population. In addition, in 2021, older adults (ages 65 to 74) had 2.2 times greater risk of dying in a fire than the general population, as it also was from 2018 to 2020.

### Ages 75 to 84

From 2012 to 2021, the smallest increase in the fire death rate trends for older adults occurred in the group of individuals ages 75 to 84. For this age group, the fire death rate trend increased nearly 4% over the 10-year period (Table 3 and Figure 3). In 2021, individuals ages 75 to 84 were 3.1 times more likely to die in a fire than the general population.

### Ages 85 and over

From 2012 to 2021, the trend in the fire death rate per million population for older adults ages 85 and over increased nearly 8% over the 10-year period (Table 4 and Figure 4). Older adults of this age group also had the highest fire death rates among the general population as a whole and, as a result, were at the highest risk of dying in a fire. In 2021, individuals ages 85 and over were 3.5 times more likely to die in a fire than the general population, while those adults ages 65 to 74 were only 2.2 times more likely to suffer fire-related deaths.

Notes:

The computation of the trend is based on the simple linear regression method of least squares. The numbers of fire deaths are adjusted for those deaths where age was not reported.

Sources:
                - NCHS. 2012-2021 Mortality Data Files, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program.
                - U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2012-2019, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2020 (NC-EST2020-AGESEX-RES). Release date: May 2021.
                - U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2020-2021, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2022 (NC-EST2022-AGESEX-RES). Release date: April 2023.

## Understanding this information

Although many regional factors, such as climate, poverty, education and demographics, affect fire issues in the United States, one of the most useful ways to compare fire fatalities across groups of people is to look at their relative risk of dying in a fire.

## What is relative risk?

Relative risk compares the per capita rate of a particular group to the overall per capita rate (for example, the U.S. general population). The relative risk of the overall U.S. population is always set at 1.

Here are 2 examples that show how relative risk is used to compare fire fatalities:
                  - The relative risk of an older adult ages 65 to 74 in 2021 was 2.2. This means that older adults in this age group are 2.2 times more likely to die in a fire than the overall U.S. population.
                  - The relative risk of an older adult ages 85 and over in 2021 was 3.5. This means that older adults in this age group are 3.5 times more likely to die in a fire than the overall U.S. population.

## What does per capita mean?

To account for population differences, per capita rates are used. Per capita rates use a common population size, which then permits comparisons between different groups. Per capita rates are determined by the number of deaths or injuries occurring to a specific population group divided by the total population for that group. This ratio is then multiplied by a common population size.

For the purposes of this analysis, per capita rates for fire deaths are measured per 1 million persons. For example, the 2021 per capita fire death rate for the total older adult (ages 65 and over) population is computed from the total number of older adult fire deaths (1,904) divided by the total older adult population (56,229,126) multiplied by 1,000,000 persons. This rate is equivalent to 33.9 deaths per 1 million population.

## How are fire death rate trends determined?

Fire death rates are measured by deaths per million population. Trends are computed to show how the rates have changed over time by smoothing fluctuations or variations in data from year-to-year.

Page last reviewed: Aug. 2, 2023

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