Topical Fire Report Series October 2021 | Volume 21, Issue 8

Fire Risk in 2019

These topical reports are 

designed to explore facets 

of the U.S. fire problem. 

Each topical report briefly 

addresses the nature of the 

specific fire or fire-related 

topic, highlights important 

findings from the data, 

and may suggest other 

resources to consider for 

further information. 

Findings

ĵ Risk by age:

– Adults ages 55 or older had a greater relative risk of fire death than the 

general population.

– Adults ages 85 or older had the highest relative risk of fire death. 

– Children ages 4 and younger had a relative risk of fire death that was 50% less 

than that of the general population, the lowest relative risk for this age group 

since the mid-1970s; however, these children had an elevated risk of both fire 

death and injury when compared to older children (ages 5 to 14). 

– Adults ages 25 to 64 and 80 or older had a greater relative risk of fire injury 

than the general population.

ĵ Risk by region: People living in the Midwest and South had the greatest relative 

risk of dying in a fire when compared to populations living in other regions of the 

United States.

ĵ Risk by gender: Males were 1.7 times more likely to die in fires than females.

ĵ Risk by race: African Americans and American Indians/Alaska Natives were at a 

greater relative risk of dying in a fire than the general population.

Risk is a factor, element or course of action involving uncertainty. It is an exposure to some peril, and it often 

implies a probability of occurrence, such as investment risk or insurance risk. In terms of the fire problem, risk is 

the potential for the death of or injury to a person, or damage to or loss of property, as a result of fire.

The risk of death or injury from fire is not the same for everyone. In 2019, fires caused 3,515 deaths and 16,600 

injuries in the U.S.1 These casualties were not equally distributed across the U.S. population, and the resulting 

risk of death or injury from fire is not uniform — it is more severe for some groups than for others.2 Much can be 

learned from understanding why different segments of society are at a heightened risk from the fire problem. 

This topical fire report explores fire risk as it applies to fire casualties in the U.S. population and is an update to 

“Fire Risk in 2017,” Volume 20, Issue 3. The focus is on how fire risk, specifically the risks of death or injury, varies 

with age and how other demographic factors weigh upon that risk.

Data sources and methodology

The findings pertaining to deaths in this report were taken from the 2019 National Center for Health Statistics 

(NCHS) Mortality Data File, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the 

Vital Statistics Cooperative Program. For each reported death certificate in the U.S., NCHS assigned International 

Classification of Disease (ICD) codes for all reported conditions leading to death. For this report, the following 

ICD codes were analyzed: F63.1, W39-W40, X00-X06, X08-X09, X75-X76, X96-X97, Y25-Y26 and Y35.1.3 These codes 

include all deaths in which exposure to fire, fire products or explosion was the underlying cause of death or was 

a contributing factor in the chain of events leading to death. Only deaths where age was specified were used in 

the analyses in the relative risk tables; age was specified in 99.94% of fire deaths in 2019.

National Fire Data Center

16825 S. Seton Ave.

Emmitsburg, MD 21727

usfa.fema.gov
TFRS Volume 21, Issue 8 | Fire Risk in 2019

2

The most recent NCHS mortality data available at the time of this analysis were from 2019. For this reason, all analyses 

in this report reference 2019 data for consistency.

Fire injury estimates in this report are based on civilian fire injury data from the 2019 National Fire Incident Reporting 

System (NFIRS) and the 2019 National Fire Protection Association’s (NFPA’s) Survey of Fire Departments for U.S. Fire 

Experience. By definition, in the NFIRS, civilian fire injuries involve people who are injured as a result of a fire and 

who are not on active duty with a firefighting organization. Civilians also include emergency personnel who are not 

members of the fire department, such as police officers or utility workers. Fire injuries generally occur from activities 

of fire control, escaping from the dangers of fire, or sleeping.4

Fire casualties, per capita rates and relative risk

When determining fire risk, geographic, demographic and socioeconomic factors all come into play.5 People in the 

Midwest and South, males, and adults ages 55 or older were all at a higher risk of dying in a fire than the general 

population. Also, although their risk of fire death and injury was less than the general population, the very young (ages 

4 and younger) were at a higher risk of fire death and injury when compared to older children. Additionally, African 

Americans and American Indians/Alaska Natives also had a higher risk of death from fire than the population as a 

whole. These groups remained at a higher risk despite considerable long-term reductions in fires and fire casualties.

Fire casualties across population groups can be assessed in several ways. The simplest method is to look at the 

distribution of the numbers of deaths or injuries across the factor of interest. For example, in the case of race in 

2019, the number of fire deaths was greatest for white Americans and least for American Indians/Alaska Natives. In 

the case of age, percentages of fire deaths were greatest for those ages 55 to 74 accounting for 42% of fire deaths, 

while only 25% of fire injuries occurred among adults in this same age group (Figure 1).

Although these findings are informative, they do not account for differences in the basic population groups under 

comparison. In the case of age, as an age group matures, its number of individuals decreases as a result of deaths. In 

the case of race for populations living in the U.S., there are far fewer American Indians/Alaska Natives, for example, 

than white Americans. As a consequence, it is possible for an age group or race to have greater (or fewer) injuries or 

deaths because the total number of individuals who can be injured is larger (or smaller) than that of other groups.

Figure 1. Percentage of fire deaths and injuries by age group in 2019

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

85 or older

10 - 1415 - 1920 - 2425 - 2930 - 3435 - 3940 - 4445 - 4950 - 5455 - 5960 - 6465 - 6970 - 7475 - 7980 - 84

5 - 9

4 or younger

3.0

4.7

2.42.3

1.5

2.5

1.5

4.4

2.3

6.5

8.0 8.3

7.9

3.5

4.2 3.8

3.1

7.6

7.0

6.4

8.2

10.0

8.1

11.3 11.0

10.2

7.4

6.1

7.1 7.3

5.5

4.5

2.9

2.0 2.4

5.1

Percent

Age range

Fire injuries

Fire deaths

Sources: 2019 NCHS Mortality Data File, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program, and 2019 

NFIRS fire injury data.

Notes: 1. Data have been adjusted to account for deaths and injuries with unknown age. Age was specified in 99.94% of fire deaths and in 99.73% of reported fire injuries.

2. The total percentage distributions of fire deaths and fire injuries do not add up to 100% due to rounding.
TFRS Volume 21, Issue 8 | Fire Risk in 2019

3

To account for population differences such as these, per capita rates are used. Per capita rates use a common 

population size that permits comparisons between different groups.6 Perhaps the most useful way to assess fire 

casualties across groups is to determine the relative risk of death or injury. Relative risk compares the per capita 

rate for a particular group (e.g., females) to the overall per capita rate (i.e., the general population). For the general 

population in the U.S., the relative risk is set at 1.

From this report, in 2019, the relative risk of dying in a fire for the total population of females in comparison to 

the total population was 0.8. This is equivalent to the per capita fire death rate for females (8.1 deaths per million 

population) divided by the per capita fire death rate for the entire population (10.7 deaths per million population7). 

Therefore, the relative risk of a female dying from fire was 20% less than that of the total population (Table 2).

Age and risk of fire casualty

In 2019, the risk of fire death for children ages 4 or younger was 50% less than that of the general population 

(Figure 2) — the lowest relative risk for this age group since the U.S. Fire Administration (USFA) began tracking the 

relative risk of dying in a fire in the mid-1970s. But the risk of death for this age group was greater than for older 

children, because as children mature and their cognitive and social abilities develop, the risk of fire death drops 

sharply. For children ages 5 to 9, the fire death risk was 60% less than that of the general population. For those 

ages 10 to 14, the risk of fire death was 80% less than that of the general population — the same as it was for 15- to 

19-year-olds. After age 19, the risk of fire death began to steadily increase. By age 55, in 2019, the risk of fire death 

was higher than the risk for the population as a whole and continued to increase as the population aged.

When physical and cognitive abilities are limited, as is often the case for the elderly, the risk of death from fire rises. 

In 2019, older adults (ages 65 or older) experienced large numbers of fire deaths that occurred in a small population 

group. As a result, the risk of dying in a fire for these older adults was 2.5 times higher than for the population as a 

whole and rose even more for the oldest segments (Figure 2). The oldest adults, those ages 85 and older, had a risk 

of dying in a fire that was 3.6 times higher than that for the general population. This, however, was lower than it was 

in 2017 and 2018 when their relative risk was 3.8 times higher.

Although the overall numbers change, these profiles have remained relatively constant from year to year, according 

to the NCHS and U.S. Census Bureau data. The fire risk to children and older adults will be discussed in more detail 

in later sections of this report.

Figure 2. Relative risk of fire death by age group in 2019

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

85 or older

10 - 14

15 - 19

20 - 24

25 - 29

30 - 34

35 - 39

40 - 44

45 - 49

50 - 54

55 - 59

60 - 64

65 - 69

70 - 74

75 - 79

80 - 84

5 - 9

4 or younger

0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6

0.4

1.0

1.5

1.8

2.1

2.4 2.5

3.2

3.6

Age range

Relative risk

U.S. population risk (1.0)

0.7 0.8

Sources: 2019 NCHS Mortality Data File, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program and U.S. 

Census Bureau population estimates.

Note: Data have been adjusted to account for deaths with unknown age. Age was specified in 99.94% of fire deaths.
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In general, the age profile of risk for fire injuries was different than that for deaths (Figure 3), with a more narrow 

range of risk quotients (0.4 to 1.3 for fire injuries versus 0.2 to 3.6 for fire deaths).8, 9 This difference is thought to be 

the result of both cognitive and mobility issues that affect older adults. Most older adults were generally less likely 

to escape the effects of fire and more likely to suffer fatal injuries. In fact, in 2019, adults ages 65 or older, with the 

exception of those ages 80 or older, had a relative risk of fire injury at or below the risk of the general population 

(Figure 3). The relative risk of fire injury was greater for 25- to 64-year-olds than for the general population. The risk 

of injury was below average for children and adults younger than 20. While less than the total population, however, 

children ages 4 and younger had a greater relative risk of injury from fire than older children (ages 5 to 14).

Figure 3. Relative risk of fire injury by age group in 2019

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

85 or older

10 - 14

15 - 19

20 - 24

25 - 29

30 - 34

35 - 39

40 - 44

45 - 49

50 - 54

55 - 59

60 - 64

65 - 69

70 - 74

75 - 79

80 - 84

5 - 9

4 or younger

0.8

0.4 0.4

0.7

1.0

1.2 1.3 1.2

1.1

1.3 1.2 1.2

1.0 1.0

1.1

1.2

1.1

Age range

Relative risk

U.S. population risk (1.0)

1.0

Sources: 2019 NFIRS fire injury data, 2019 NFPA fire injury estimates, and U.S. Census Bureau population estimates.

Note: Data have been adjusted to account for injuries with unknown age. Age was specified in 99.73% of reported fire injuries.

Other factors that influence risk

Research shows that fire death rates are higher in states with larger percentages of people who are African American, 

poor and smokers; have less formal education; and live in rural areas. Many of these states tend to be in the 

southeastern U.S.10 In addition to age, geographic location, gender and race also influence fire risk.

Location

The risk of dying in a fire was greatest for people living in the Midwest and South when compared to populations 

living in other regions (Table 1).11 In the South, this may be partially attributed to the intermittent need for occasional 

heating. Rather than including central heating systems, as used in northern areas, many households in the South 

use portable heating devices that may be more likely to lead to a fire problem. Conversely, the Northeast and West 

had a much lower risk of fire death. In fact, their risk from fire death was 20% and 30%, respectively, less than the 

population as a whole.
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Table 1. Relative risk of fire death by geographic region in 2019

Region Population Fire deaths

Death rate

(per million 

population)

Relative risk

Northeast 56,002,934 488 8.7 0.8

Midwest 68,340,091 874 12.8 1.2

South 125,686,544 1,526 12.1 1.1

West 78,300,384 627 8.0 0.7

U.S. overall 328,329,953 3,515 10.7 1.0

Sources: 1. 2019 NCHS Mortality Data File, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program.

2. U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2019 population estimates from the table Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States, 

Regions, States, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2020 (NST-EST2020). Release date: December 2020.

Note: Relative risk may not compute due to rounding.

Gender

For nearly all age groups and race categories, males were as likely or more likely to die in a fire-related incident than 

females (Table 2, Table 4 and Table 6). Overall, in 2019 as well as in 2015, males were 1.7 times more likely to die in 

fires than females (Table 2). This is an increase from 2016 to 2018, when males were 1.6 times more likely to die in 

fires than females. For 2019, data showed that males, overall, were about 1.5 times more likely to suffer fire injuries 

than their female counterparts — the same as in 2017 and 2018.12

Race

African Americans and American Indians/Alaska Natives had higher fire death rates per capita than the national 

average. African Americans constituted a large and disproportionate share of total fire deaths, accounting for 18% of 

fire deaths in 2019, but only 13% of the U.S. population.13, 14 In 2019, African Americans had a 40% greater risk of dying in 

a fire than the general population. This is lower than in 2018 when the risk was 50% higher than the general population 

and much lower than in 2007, however, when the risk was 80% higher than the general population.15 For American 

Indians/Alaska Natives in 2019, the relative risk was also 40% higher than the risk of the general population. This was 

an increase from 2017, when their risk was 30% higher, but a decrease from 2014, when their risk was 50% higher. 

By contrast, Asian/Pacific Islander Americans were 70% less likely to die in a fire than the overall population in 2019.
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Table 2. Relative risk of fire death by race and gender in 2019, overall population

Gender/race Population Fire deaths

Death rate

(per million 

population)

Relative risk

Total 328,329,953 3,515 10.7 1.0

Male 161,692,336 2,164 13.4 1.3

Female 166,637,617 1,351 8.1 0.8

White 250,065,098 2,747 11.0 1.0

African American 44,224,356 642 14.5 1.4

American Indian/Alaska Native 4,243,909 62 14.6 1.4

Asian/Pacific Islander 20,534,820 64 3.1 0.3

White male 123,941,939 1,681 13.6 1.3

African American male 21,186,479 404 19.1 1.8

American Indian/Alaska Native male 2,136,655 40 18.7 1.7

Asian/Pacific Islander male 9,840,194 39 4.0 0.4

White female 126,123,159 1,066 8.5 0.8

African American female 23,037,877 238 10.3 1.0

American Indian/Alaska Native female 2,107,254 22 10.4 1.0

Asian/Pacific Islander female 10,694,626 25 2.3 0.2

Source: See notes at the end of the report.

Note: The overall male and female estimates include individuals with “2+ races” per the census. The “2+ races” category accounts for 2.8% of the population. The NCHS 

does not include this race category. Therefore, the population estimates for the individual race categories do not sum to the total population estimate. Relative 

risk may not compute due to rounding.

Fire risk to children in 2019

While the relative risk of fire death or injury for children under age 15 was lower than the general population, the 

very young will always remain inherently vulnerable for a variety of reasons. Escaping from a fire can be difficult for 

children. A child age 4 or younger is usually too young to independently escape from a fire. Children this age generally 

lack the mental abilities to understand the need and the means of quickly escaping from a burning structure. Even 

in their own homes, very young children lack an understanding of how to escape.

Age

In 2019, 240 children younger than age 15 died as a result of fires (Table 3).16 These children accounted for 7% of all fire 

deaths. The youngest children were hit especially hard — 44% of child fire deaths affected children ages 4 or younger. 

In 2019, fire injuries affected an estimated 1,575 children.17 Again, the youngest suffered a large share of injuries: 50% 

of child fire injuries occurred to children ages 4 or younger. As in prior years, the numbers of fire deaths declined with 

increasing age. Fire injuries, however, declined sharply between the young preschoolers (ages 4 or younger) and the 

younger school-aged children (ages 5 to 9), but rose for older children (ages 10 to 14). For 2019, this pattern in fire 

injuries to children by age group is comparable to the profile of child fire injuries from 2013 to 2018. With these 3 age 

groups combined, children accounted for 9% of all fire injuries. 
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Table 3. Child fire deaths and injuries by age group in 2019

Overall 

(ages 0 to 14) Ages 0 to 4 Ages 5 to 9 Ages 10 to 14

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

Deaths 241 100.0 105 43.6 85 35.3 51 21.2

Injuries 1,569 100.0 778 49.6 380 24.2 411 26.2

Sources: 2019 NCHS Mortality Data File, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program; 2019 

NFIRS fire injury data; and 2019 NFPA fire injury estimates.

Note: Total percent of child fire deaths does not add up to 100% due to rounding.

In determining fire risk, the age, gender and socioeconomic factors of children and the households where they live 

also come into play, as they do for the total population.18 Because the numbers of fire deaths decreased as the age of 

the child increased, the likelihood of dying in a fire also decreased (Table 4). In 2019, as previously discussed, children 

ages 4 or younger had 50% less risk of dying in a fire than the general population. These children, however, had a 

higher risk of dying in a fire than older children. In fact, the relative risk of dying in a fire for children ages 5 to 9 was 

60% less than that of the general population. By the time a child reached the 10 to 14 age group, the relative risk of 

dying in a fire dropped to 80% less than that of the general population.

Gender and race

Overall, boys tended to have the same or equivalent fire risk as girls. Additionally, African Americans constituted a 

large and disproportionate share of fire deaths, accounting for 24% of fire deaths among children in 2019 but for only 

15% of the child population. Moreover, African American children ages 4 or younger had a relative risk of dying that 

was 20% less than the general population but 1.7 times higher than for all children in that age group.19

Table 4. Relative risk of child fire deaths by age, race and gender in 2019 (ages 0 to 14)

Gender/race Population Fire deaths

Death rate 

(per million 

population)

Relative risk

All children (ages 0 to 14)

Total 60,613,145 241 4.0 0.4

Male 30,965,734 124 4.0 0.4

Female 29,647,411 117 3.9 0.4

White 43,079,003 174 4.0 0.4

African American 9,277,058 59 6.4 0.6

American Indian/Alaska Native 1,029,034 4 - -

Asian/Pacific Islander 3,661,499 4 - -
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Table 4. Relative risk of child fire deaths by age, race and gender in 2019 (ages 0 to 14) — continued

Gender/race Population Fire deaths

Death rate 

(per million 

population)

Relative risk

Ages 0 to 4

Total 19,571,339 105 5.4 0.5

Male 10,001,266 50 5.0 0.5

Female 9,570,073 55 5.7 0.5

White 13,683,613 73 5.3 0.5

African American 3,043,005 27 8.9 0.8

American Indian/Alaska Native 351,388 4 - -

Asian/Pacific Islander 1,250,740 1 - -

Gender/race Population Fire deaths

Death rate 

(per million 

population)

Relative risk

Ages 5 to 9

Total 20,221,753 85 4.2 0.4

Male 10,335,306 47 4.5 0.4

Female 9,886,447 38 3.8 0.4

White 14,335,113 59 4.1 0.4

African American 3,090,269 25 8.1 0.8

American Indian/Alaska Native 343,218 0 - -

Asian/Pacific Islander 1,238,146 1 - -

Gender/race Population Fire deaths

Death rate 

(per million 

population)

Relative risk

Ages 10 to 14

Total 20,820,053 51 2.4 0.2

Male 10,629,162 27 2.5 0.2

Female 10,190,891 24 2.4 0.2

White 15,060,277 42 2.8 0.3

African American 3,143,784 7 - -

American Indian/Alaska Native 334,428 0 - -

Asian/Pacific Islander 1,172,613 2 - -

Source: See notes at the end of the report.

Notes: 1. The overall male and female estimates include individuals with “2+ races” per the census. The “2+ races” category accounts for 2.8% of the population. The 

NCHS does not include this race category. Therefore, the population estimates for the individual race categories do not sum to the total population estimate. 

Relative risk may not compute due to rounding.

2. Because they are considered highly variable, fire death rates and relative risk were not computed when there were fewer than 20 deaths per category.
TFRS Volume 21, Issue 8 | Fire Risk in 2019

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Fire risk to older adults in 2019

To be elderly is in itself a disadvantage in terms of fire risk. Older people tend to have physical disabilities or ailments 

that hinder their mobility. With advancing age, physical and mental capabilities decline, making it more difficult for 

older adults to see, smell and hear clearly. Lessened senses and decreased mobility increase the risk of death or 

injury from fire. 

To compound this problem, older adults are more inclined to accidentally start a fire than younger adults. Oftentimes, 

older adults are close to the source of a fire, such as a cooking fire or a cigarette fire, and their clothing or bedding 

ignites. Because the aging process affects the senses, older adults typically have diminished sensation to pain, and 

thus they often do not seek timely treatment. All of these factors combine to increase the risk of death from fire for 

older adults.

Age

In 2019, 1,470 older adults ages 65 or older died as a result of fires (Table 5).20 These adults accounted for 42% of all 

fire deaths. However, older adults constituted only 16% of the U.S. population in 2019,21 and their ranks are growing. 

It is estimated that the older population will rise sharply between now and 2030, the years when the baby-boom 

generation will be in retirement. By 2030, the U.S. Census Bureau estimates that adults ages 65 or older will constitute 

21% of the U.S. population, which will increase to 23% by 2060.22 Better health care and new developments in 

medicine continue to increase American life expectancy. By their 65th birthday, on average, Americans can expect 

to live another 20 years.23

Adults ages 65 to 74 accounted for about half (51%) of older adult fire deaths, and those ages 75 to 84 accounted for 

an additional 32%. Older adults ages 85 or older accounted for 17% of older adult fire deaths.

While fire injuries affected an estimated 2,850 older adults, this group accounted for 17% of all estimated fire injuries 

in 2019.24 The relative risk of older adults ages 65 or older being injured in a fire was equal to that of the general 

population. The youngest segment of the older adults suffered the largest share of injuries: 58% of older adult injuries 

occurred to those ages 65 to 74. As in previous years, the number of older adult fire deaths and fire injuries in 2019 

declined with increasing age.

Table 5. Older adult fire deaths and injuries by age group in 2019

Overall 

(ages 65 or older) Ages 65 to 74 Ages 75 to 84 Ages 85 or older

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

Deaths 1,470 100.0 744 50.6 475 32.3 251 17.1

Injuries 2,859 100.0 1,649 57.7 812 28.4 398 13.9

Sources: 2019 NCHS Mortality Data File, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program; 2019 

NFIRS fire injury data; and 2019 NFPA fire injury estimates.

In 2019, the relative risk of dying in a fire for older adults was 2.5 times higher than for the population as a whole 

(Table 6). This statistic alone is troublesome, but when subcategories of older adults were more closely evaluated, the 

situation worsened. The relative risk of dying in a fire rose substantially for the oldest segment (Figure 4 and Table 6). 

Individuals ages 85 or older were 3.6 times more likely to die in a fire than the general population. This is a decrease 

from 2017 and 2018, when they were 3.8 times more likely to die in a fire than the general population. Adults ages 

65 to 74 were 2.2 times more likely to suffer fire-related deaths than the general population — the same as it was in 

2018. This is an increase from 2017 when they were 2.1 times more likely to die in a fire.
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10

Gender

As previously discussed, the risk of fire death was not uniform across genders, and for the population as a whole, in 

2019, males were 65% more likely than females to be victims of fires. This disparity held for older adults as well (76%), 

increasing to 114% in the 85 or older age group.

Figure 4. Age, gender and relative risk of fire fatality for older adults in 2019

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

65 - 74 75 - 84 85+

Age group

Relative risk

Male

Female

Overall

Source: Derived from Table 6.

Race

In 2019, as discussed, the problem was more severe for African Americans ages 65 and older when, as an overall 

group, they had 4.3 times the relative risk of dying from fire than the general population (Table 2). But it was the 

African American elderly, particularly those ages 85 or older, who were most at risk; this group had a fire death risk 

over 7 times greater than that of the general population and 2 times the risk of all elderly people in this age group 

(Table 6). This is a decrease from 2016, however, when this group had a fire death risk 8 times greater than the general 

population and an even greater decrease from 2014 and 2015, when this group had a fire death risk 10 times greater 

than the general population. 

Table 6. Relative risk of older adult fire deaths by age, race and gender in 2019 (ages 65 or older)

Gender/race Population Fire deaths

Death rate 

(per million 

population)

Relative risk

All older adults (ages 65 or older)

Total 54,036,735 1,470 27.2 2.5

Male 24,061,617 861 35.8 3.3

Female 29,975,118 609 20.3 1.9

White 45,377,540 1,203 26.5 2.5

African American 5,158,976 235 45.6 4.3

American Indian/Alaska Native 403,592 12 - -

Asian/Pacific Islander 2,592,397 20 7.7 0.7
TFRS Volume 21, Issue 8 | Fire Risk in 2019

11

Table 6. Relative risk of older adult fire deaths by age, race and gender in 2019 (ages 65 or older) — continued

Gender/race Population Fire deaths

Death rate 

(per million 

population)

Relative risk

Ages 65 to 74

Total 31,471,344 744 23.6 2.2

Male 14,690,960 466 31.7 3.0

Female 16,780,384 278 16.6 1.5

White 26,123,500 610 23.4 2.2

African American 3,215,413 121 37.6 3.5

American Indian/Alaska Native 259,995 7 - -

Asian/Pacific Islander 1,555,105 6 - -

Gender/race Population Fire deaths

Death rate 

(per million 

population)

Relative risk

Ages 75 to 84

Total 15,965,924 475 29.8 2.8

Male 6,996,450 258 36.9 3.4

Female 8,969,474 217 24.2 2.3

White 13,568,392 390 28.7 2.7

African American 1,415,751 73 51.6 4.8

American Indian/Alaska Native 108,168 5 - -

Asian/Pacific Islander 736,859 7 - -

Gender/race Population Fire deaths

Death rate 

(per million 

population)

Relative risk

Ages 85 or older

Total 6,599,467 251 38.0 3.6

Male 2,374,207 137 57.7 5.4

Female 4,225,260 114 27.0 2.5

White 5,685,648 203 35.7 3.3

African American 527,812 41 77.7 7.3

American Indian/Alaska Native 35,429 0 - -

Asian/Pacific Islander 300,433 7 - -

Source: See notes at the end of the report.

Notes: 1. The overall male and female estimates include individuals with “2+ races” per the census. The “2+ races” category accounts for 2.8% of the population. The 

NCHS does not include this race category. Therefore, the population estimates for the individual race categories do not sum to the total population estimate. 

Relative risk may not compute due to rounding.

2. Because they are considered highly variable, fire death rates and relative risk were not computed when there were fewer than 20 deaths per category.
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Conclusion

The elderly are some of the nation’s most vulnerable residents, and in 2019, their risk of death in a fire remained high. 

In addition, with an aging population, the U.S. demographic profile is rapidly changing. The older adult population 

(ages 65 or older) is expected to increase from its current 16% of the total population to 23% by 2060,25 with an 

assumed corresponding increase in fire deaths and injuries among older adults. According to U.S. Census Bureau 

population projections, by 2060, the number of individuals ages 65 or older is expected to be 95 million — nearly 

double the amount in 2019. At the same time, the population ages 85 or older is expected to nearly triple, increasing 

from 6.6 million in 2019 to 19.0 million in 2060.26 With advancing age, physical and mental capabilities of these older 

adults will likely decline, hindering their mobility and making it more difficult for them to see, smell and hear clearly. 

Lessened senses and decreased mobility increase the risk of death or injury from fire.

Substantial improvements have been made in reducing fire deaths and injuries among children younger than age 15, 

and in 2019, their relative risk of fire death was 60% lower than that of the general population. However, the youngest 

children (ages 4 and younger) faced an elevated risk of death or injury in a fire when compared to older children. In 

addition, young children are physiologically susceptible to severe injury or death from fire. Children this age generally 

lack the means and mental abilities to understand the need to quickly escape from a burning structure. Further, 

while older children face a lower risk of death or injury in a fire and are more mobile than those in the youngest age 

group, they still may not have sufficient abilities to protect themselves. As a result, the young and old continue to 

merit special attention to reduce their risk of injury or death from fire.

Prevention

Because children and older adults accounted for nearly half (49%) of all fire deaths and 27% of fire injuries in 2019, and 

for the reasons stated previously, the USFA has been working toward the goal of reducing fire deaths and injuries in 

these populations. A number of resources are available to help address the fire problem for children and adults. For 

children, the USFA provides outreach materials for parents and caregivers, including information on home strategies 

ranging from the control of matches and lighters to home escape planning (https://www.usfa.fema.gov/prevention/

outreach/children.html). For adults, the USFA provides outreach materials that address lifestyle strategies of safe 

smoking, safe cooking and safe heating to reduce the incidence of fires that traditionally affect older adults (https://

www.usfa.fema.gov/prevention/outreach/older_adults.html). For more information, see the USFA website (https://

www.usfa.fema.gov) or contact your local fire department.

New technologies

Fire fatalities and injuries have declined over the last 40 years, partly due to new technologies to detect and extinguish 

fires. In addition, residential sprinklers have gained support from the fire service and many residential communities.

Properly installed and maintained smoke alarms provide an early warning signal to everyone in a home if a fire occurs. 

Smoke alarms help save lives and property.

The USFA continues to partner with other government agencies and fire service organizations to improve and develop 

new smoke alarm technologies. More information on smoke alarm technologies, performance, training bulletins, 

and public education and outreach materials is available at http://www.usfa.fema.gov/prevention/technology/

smoke_fire_alarms.html. Additionally, the USFA’s position statement on smoke alarms is available at https://www.

usfa.fema.gov/about/smoke_alarms_position.html.

Residential sprinkler systems help to reduce the risk of deaths and injuries, homeowners insurance premiums, 

and uninsured property losses. Despite these advantages, many homes do not have automatic extinguishing 

systems, although they are often found in hotels and businesses. Sprinklers are required by code in hotels and many 

multifamily residences. There are major movements in the U.S. fire service to require sprinklers in all new homes. At 

present, however, they are largely absent in residences nationwide.27
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The USFA and fire service officials across the nation are working to promote and advance residential fire sprinklers. 

More information on costs and benefits, performance, training bulletins, and public education and outreach materials 

regarding residential sprinklers is available at http://www.usfa.fema.gov/prevention/technology/home_fire_sprinklers.

html. Additionally, the USFA’s position statement on residential sprinklers is available at http://www.usfa.fema.gov/

about/sprinklers_position.html.

To request additional information, visit: http://www.usfa.fema.gov/contact.html. Provide feedback on this report.

Notes:

Sources for Table 2, Table 4 and Table 6 are the 2019 NCHS Mortality Data File, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics 

jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program, and U.S. population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division:

ĵ July 1, 2019 population estimates from the table Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States, Regions, States, the 

District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2020 (NST-EST2020). Release date: December 2020 (https://www.census.gov/

programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/research/evaluation-estimates/2020-evaluation-estimates/2010s-totals-national.html).

ĵ July 1, 2019 population estimates from the table Monthly Population Estimates by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin for the United 

States: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2020 (NC-EST2020-ALLDATA-R). Release date: June 2021 (https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/

technical-documentation/research/evaluation-estimates/2020-evaluation-estimates/2010s-national-detail.html).

12019 NCHS mortality data (deaths) and the 2019 NFPA survey estimates (injuries). The count of fire deaths cited in the text is rounded to the

nearest 5.

2The term “casualties” refers to both fire deaths and injuries.

3The ICD 10 codes used from the NCHS mortality data are as follows: F63.1 — Pathological fire-setting (pyromania); W39 — Discharge of firework;

W40 — Explosion of other materials; X00 — Exposure to uncontrolled fire in building or structure; X01 — Exposure to uncontrolled fire, not in

building or structure; X02 — Exposure to controlled fire in building or structure; X03 — Exposure to controlled fire, not in building or structure;

X04 — Exposure to ignition of highly flammable material; X05 — Exposure to ignition or melting of nightwear; X06 — Exposure to ignition or

melting of other clothing and apparel; X08 — Exposure to other specified smoke, fire and flames; X09 — Exposure to unspecified smoke, fire and

flames; X75 — Intentional self-harm (suicide) by explosive material; X76 — Intentional self-harm (suicide) by smoke, fire and flames; X96 — Assault

(homicide) by explosive material; X97 — Assault (homicide) by smoke, fire and flames; Y25 — Contact with explosive material, undetermined

intent; Y26 — Exposure to smoke, fire and flames, undetermined intent; and Y35.1 — Legal intervention involving explosives.

4USFA, “Civilian Fire Injuries in Residential Buildings (2017-2019),” Topical Fire Report Series, Volume 21, Issue 4, July 2021, https://www.usfa.

fema.gov/downloads/pdf/statistics/v21i4.pdf.

5Socioeconomic factors are discussed in more detail in the USFA report, “Fire Risk in 2016,” Topical Fire Report Series, Volume 19, Issue 6, 

September 2018, https://apps.usfa.fema.gov/downloads/pdf/statistics/v19i6.pdf.

6Per capita rates are determined by the number of deaths or injuries occurring to a specific population group, divided by the total population

for that group. This ratio is then multiplied by a common population size. For the purposes of this report, per capita rates for fire deaths and

injuries are measured per 1 million people. For example, the per capita fire death rate for the total female population in 2019 was computed

from the total number of female fire deaths (1,351), divided by the total female population (166,637,617), multiplied by 1,000,000 people. This

rate is equivalent to 8.1 fire deaths per 1 million population.

7The per capita fire death rate for the total population in 2019 was computed from the total number of fire deaths (3,515), divided by the total

population (328,329,953), multiplied by 1,000,000 people. This rate is equivalent to 10.7 fire deaths per 1 million population.

8Estimates of injuries by age are derived from 2019 NFIRS civilian fire casualty age data in conjunction with the 2019 NFPA estimate of civilian

fire injuries (16,600). Fire injury risk is computed using the 2019 NFIRS data and the NFPA estimate of civilian fire injuries. 

9Fire department participation in the NFIRS is voluntary; however, some states do require their departments to participate in the state system.

Additionally, if a fire department is a recipient of a Fire Act Grant, participation is required. From 2017 to 2019, 68% of the NFPA’s annual average

estimated 1,309,800 fires to which fire departments responded were captured in the NFIRS. Therefore, the NFIRS is not representative of all

fire incidents in the U.S. and is not a “complete” census of fire incidents and their related losses, including fire injuries. Although the NFIRS does

not represent 100% of the incidents and their related losses reported to fire departments each year, the enormous dataset exhibits stability

from one year to the next without radical changes. Results based on the full dataset are generally similar to those based on part of the data.

10NFPA, Fire Analysis and Research Division, “Demographic and Other Characteristics Related to Fire Deaths or Injuries,” March 2010, https://

www.nfpa.org/News-and-Research/Data-research-and-tools/Building-and-Life-Safety/Archived-reports---Building-and-life-safety (accessed

July 21, 2021).

11The regions of the U.S. are defined by the U.S. Census Bureau as the Northeast (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New

Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Vermont); South (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia,

Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and West Virginia); Midwest

(Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin); and West (Alaska,

Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington and Wyoming).
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12Unrounded values of relative risk were used for the computations in this paragraph.

13As required by the Office of Management and Budget, starting in 1997, the U.S. Census Bureau generates population estimates for the following

race categories: white, Black or African American, American Indian or Alaska Native, Asian, Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander, or some

other race (2+ races). “Hispanic or Latino” is considered an ethnicity and refers to a person of Cuban, Mexican, Puerto Rican, South or Central

American, or other Spanish culture or origin regardless of race. As a result, “Hispanic or Latino” is not broken out as a separate race category

in this report.

14Statistics are based on 2019 NCHS mortality data and U.S. Census Bureau population estimates for July 1, 2019.

15USFA, “Fire Risk in 2007,” Topical Fire Report Series, Volume 11, Issue 8, February 2011, https://apps.usfa.fema.gov/downloads/pdf/statistics/v11i8.pdf.

16Numbers of fire deaths are extracted from 2019 NCHS mortality data using the ICD codes noted previously. The count of fire deaths cited in the 

text is rounded to the nearest 5.

17Estimates of fire injuries are calculated by determining the percent of injuries reported to the NFIRS and applying this percentage to the NFPA

estimate of civilian fire injuries (16,600). The fire injury estimate cited in the text is rounded to the nearest 25.

18Socioeconomic factors are discussed in more detail in the USFA report, “Fire Risk in 2016,” Topical Fire Report Series, Volume 19, Issue 6, 

September 2018, https://apps.usfa.fema.gov/downloads/pdf/statistics/v19i6.pdf.

19Unrounded values of relative risk were used for this computation. 

202019 NCHS mortality data. The count of fire deaths cited in the text is rounded to the nearest 5.

21U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2019, population estimates from the file Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single 

Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2020 (NC-EST2020-AGESEX-RES). Release date: May 2021, https://www.census.

gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/research/evaluation-estimates/2020-evaluation-estimates/2010s-national-detail.html

(accessed July 21, 2021).

22U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Table 2. Projected age groups and sex composition of the population: Main Projection Series for

the United States: 2017 to 2060 (NP2017-T2). Release date: September 2018, https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2017/demo/popproj/2017-

summary-tables.html (accessed July 22, 2021).

23NCHS, “Health, United States, 2019,” Table 4. Life expectancy at birth, at age 65, and at age 75, by sex, race, and Hispanic origin: United States,

selected years 1900–2018, https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/hus19-508.pdf (accessed July 22, 2021).

24 Estimates of fire injuries are calculated by determining the percent of injuries reported to the NFIRS and applying this percentage to the NFPA

estimate of civilian fire injuries (16,600). The fire injury estimate cited in the text is rounded to the nearest 25.

25U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Table 2. Projected age groups and sex composition of the population: Main Projection Series for

the United States: 2017 to 2060 (NP2017-T2). Release date: September 2018, https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2017/demo/popproj/2017-

summary-tables.html (accessed July 22, 2021).

26U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Table 2. Projected age groups and sex composition of the population: Main Projection Series for

the United States: 2017 to 2060 (NP2017-T2). Release date: September 2018, https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2017/demo/popproj/2017-

summary-tables.html (accessed July 22, 2021).

27U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and U.S. Census Bureau, American Housing Survey for the United States: 2011, September

2013, “Health and Safety Characteristics-All Occupied Units (National),” Table S-01-AO, https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/

publications/2013/demo/h150-11.pdf (accessed July 22, 2021).