8/23/2022

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Navajo Unit Operations

Coordination Meeting

August 23, 2022 

1:00 PM

• Introductions

• Weather Summary and Outlook– Aldis Strautins, NWS

• Streamflow Summary and Outlook – Ashley Nielson, CBRFC

• Review of operations to date WY 2022

• WY 2023 planned operations

• Comments and Reports

Agenda

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Navajo Operations Meeting

August 23rd, 2022

Water Year 2022

Runoff Review

Ashley Nielson

Senior Hydrologist

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center

National Weather Service/NOAA
● Water Year 2022 Conditions Summary

○ Precipitation

○ Snow

○ Streamflow

● 2022 April-July Observed Volumes

● 2022 Water Supply Forecast Performance

● Current conditions and outlooks

○ Soil Moisture

○ Streamflow

● Summary

Outline
Basin Mean Precipitation as a % of Average 

San Juan 

River above 

Navajo 

Reservoir

Animas River

Oct-Mar 90 90

October 100 105

November 10 20

December 230 235

January 25 15

February 95 90

March 80 90

San Juan River

Precipitation: October-March 
Basin Mean Precipitation as a % of Average 

San Juan 

River above 

Navajo 

Reservoir

Animas 

River

Oct-Mar 90 90

April 40 35

May 15 8

June 450 370

July 220 165

Oct-Jul 105 100

April May

June July

Precipitation: April-July
Precipitation Percentile Rankings: NRCS SNOTEL

April-May Precipitation June-July Precipitation

Observed precipitation was in the bottom 5-10 years on 

record with a few locations having record dry conditions.

Observed precipitation was in the top 5 years on record 

with many locations having record wet conditions. 
April 1

Snow Conditions: CBRFC Model Snow Water Equivalent

9500’-11000’

April 15 May 1 May 15

>11000’ 

9500’-11000’

Red Mountain Pass SNOTEL

Animas below Silverton San Juan-Pagosa Springs

>11000’ ● Peak SWE

○ Below normal over the majority of the basin

○ Near normal conditions above Navajo 

Reservoir

● Peak SWE Timing

○ Early

● Melt Out

○ Accelerated melt rates due to warm 

temperatures, minimal precipitation, and 

above normal dust 

○ Very early; 3-4 weeks

% of Median

Median

Median
Spring and Summer Highlights: 

• Below normal to normal baseflow conditions prior to Spring runoff.

• Snowmelt runoff peak flows were significantly earlier than normal and below normal in magnitude.

• Rapid decline to much below normal flows during the normal time of peak/high flows.

• June and July and rain increased flows to near or above normal. 

2022 Observed Streamflow: San Juan River Basin
April-July Unregulated Observed Volumes

Volume in 1000’s acre-feet / Percent of 1991-2020 average

S

● April-July observed volumes ranged from 50-70% of average. 

Vallecito

125 / 70%

Animas-Durango

230 / 60%

Navajo Reservoir

382 / 61%

San Juan-Pagosa

138 / 71%

Piedra-Arboles

96 / 53%

Rio Blanco-Pagosa

34 / 70%

San Juan River Basin: April-July Observed Volumes 
Apr-Jul Observed

Forecasts decreased from May through June due to much below normal precipitation. Above normal June and 

July precipitation resulted in an increase to the forecast. The wet conditions in June and July helped to avoid 

what could have a been a much worse water supply outcome given another warm and dry spring with significant 

dust conditions.

Median/Average

June/July Precip

390 kaf

62%

380 kaf

60%

310 kaf

50%

Blue shading: Daily Raw Model Guidance 90% - 10% exceedance 

range

Blue line: Daily Raw Model Guidance 50% exceedance

Pink line: Official forecast 90%, 70%, 50%, 30%, 10% exceedance

Brown dotted: Average observed

Orange dashed: 2022 Observed Streamflow

Water Supply Forecast Evolution: Navajo Reservoir Inflow

Dry May
Animas-Durango 

Forecast Performance

2022 Forecast Errors:

● Forecast errors fell into the normal range of errors for 

January-May forecasts for San Juan River Basin.

○ Exceptions include: Animas-Durango 

(January-March forecasts outside of normal error)

● June forecast error was higher than normal due to the 

above normal precipitation.

● Observed April-July volumes would most likely have been 

near or below the 90% forecast if June and July 

precipitation had been near normal. 

● Model soil moisture and snow states seemed to be well 

representative.

● Model handled the above average dust conditions 

reasonably well with forecaster modifications.

Navajo Reservoir Inflow 
Late August Conditions

Modeled Soil Moisture: Aug 16 2022

*Model snapshot. Provisional data that will change*

Streamflow
Weather Outlooks
• Water Supply Conditions:

• Below normal soil moisture conditions entering the 2022 spring runoff season

• April -July observed unregulated runoff volumes ranged from 50-70% of average.

■ Below normal snow conditions and very early melt

■ Warm and near record dry April and early May

■ Record wet June and July precipitation helped improve water supply conditions.

■ Spring weather has a significant impact on water supply conditions

• Current conditions

■ Improved baseflow and soil moisture conditions

● Eastern headwaters above Navajo have better conditions than the Animas.

● Aug-Oct weather will determine final conditions prior to winter.

• Water Supply Forecasts

• Forecasts decreased from May-June due record/near record May precipitation.

• Forecasts increased in both mid-June and July due to above normal precipitation.

• Observed volumes would have likely been near or below the 90% forecast without June/July precipitation.

• CBRFC forecast model performed reasonably well this season.

• Weather 

• June-August weather has brought precipitation and hydrologic relief to the region.

• Periods of monsoon precipitation will continue.

Summary:
Contact Info

Contact Information

• Ashley Nielson - San Juan River Forecaster

• ashley.nielson@noaa.gov

• 801-524-5130 x333 

• Operational Hydrologist: in office

• 801-524-4004

• cbrfc.operations@noaa.gov

CBRFC Webpage

https://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/

CBRFC Water Supply Presentations

https://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/present/present.php

Contact Info:
August 2022

Weather Outlook

Aldis Strautins

National Weather Service

Grand Junction, CO

http://www.weather.gov/gjt
August 2022 Outline

• Precipitation and Temperature

• Precipitation (SNOTEL)

• Drought

• ENSO

• Weather outlook
Water Year 2022 through mid August 2022 August

Temperature

Departure from normal

Precipitation

% of normal
August 2022 Sep – Nov, 2021 - Precipitation

(percent of normal)

Dry fall for three quarters of the western slope going into the winter season
Water year Precipitation August 2022 (different stories)

Oct 1 – Dec 31, 2021

Dry Nov and early Dec / Very wet late Dec

Jan 1 – Apr 13, 2022

Below normal since Jan 1
Water year Precipitation August 2022 (different stories)

Jun 23 – Aug 21, 2022 Mar 1 – May 31, 2022

Below normal
August 2022 June and July 2022

Precipitation

% of normal

Precipitation

% of normal
August 2022 August 2022

Temperature

Departure from normal

Precipitation

% of normal
August 2022 SNOTEL Precipitation – NRCS

Precipitation

Yay...Late December Snow

Yay...Late February Snow

Ok...Some March Snow

Summer Rains started late 

June 

Southwestern Colorado
August 2022 Drought

Drought Monitor (Colorado Basin View)
August 2022 Drought

Drought Monitor (Regional View)
August 2022 ENSO - Outlook

Season La Niña Neutral El Niño

JAS 86 14 0

ASO 80 20 0

SON 80 20 0

OND 79 20 1

NDJ 72 27 1

DJF 60 36 4

JFM 47 47 6

FMA 32 59 9

MAM 18 68 14

CPC/IRI Early-Month Consensus ENSO 

Forecast Probabilities

(using NWS CPC classification system)

La Nina this Spring - Maybe Neutral next Spring
August 2022 ENSO 

North of Colorado – Dry and Warm

South of Colorado – Wet and Cool

North of Colorado – Wet and Cool

South of Colorado – Dry and Warm
WPC 7 August 2022 -Day Precipitation Outlook

Accumulation period from Apr 18-25
August 2022 Outlook

August 28 – Sept 1 August 28 – Sept 1
August 2022 Outlook

August 30 – Sept 5 August 30 – Sept 5
Monthly August 2022 Outlook

Precipitation

September

Temperature

September
August 2022 Seasonal Outlook

Precipitation

Sep/Oct/Nov

Temperature

Sep/Oct/Nov
August 2022 Seasonal Outlook

Precipitation

Oct/Nov/Dec

Temperature

Oct/Nov/Dec
August 2022 Seasonal Outlook

Precipitation

Nov/Dec/Jan

Temperature

Nov/Dec/Jan
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Final 

Water Supply 

(April-July)

Navajo: 381 kaf (60% avg)

Vallecito: 125 kaf (71% avg)

Lemon: 32 kaf (67% avg)

Animas: 230 kaf (60% avg)

McPhee: 144 kaf (56% avg)

Powell: 3,750 kaf (59% avg) 

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Reclamation Hydro Data

https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/hydrodata/reservoir_data/site_map.html https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/hydrodata/reservoir_data/920/charts/pool_elevation.html

June – August 2022 Events

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?site_no=09357000%2C09365000%2C09357700&format=gif_mult_sites&PARAmeter_cd=00060&period=7

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June – August 2022 Events

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?site_no=09379500%2C09371010%2C09368000&format=gif_mult_sites&PARAmeter_cd=00060&period=7

Turbidity

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Based on current streamflow conditions, storage levels, and statistical 

outlooks based on 30 years of historical hydrology,

• Runoff projections range from 430 kaf (47% avg) – 1,140 kaf (158% 

avg) with a median projection of 810 kaf (89% avg).

• 25% chance of prescribed spring peak release 

• 7% chance of falling below 5990 ft (min active storage)

• A shortage was previously forecast in WY 2023 that has diminished 

due to recent rainfall and resulting reduced releases. A dry month or 

two could see a re-emergence.

Projected Operations WY 2023

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• WY 2022 April-July runoff was below average throughout the San Juan River Basin. Navajo 

Modified Unregulated Inflow totaled 381 kaf which was 60% of average.

• There was no spring peak release. Releases varied from 300 – 800 cfs throughout WY 2022.

• Drought conditions have improved in the Four Corners due to rains but drought conditions still 

persist especially in the western half of the basin. Rains likely helped soil moisture and releases.

• Based on current storage and streamflows and the statistical range of likely hydrologies for WY 

2023, there is a 25% chance for a spring peak release and a 7% chance of shortage. The median 

runoff forecast is for 89% of average.

Summary Next Meeting January 17th 2023

• Navajo Project Notices: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/wcao/water/rsvrs/notice/nav_rel.html

• Navajo Monthly Forecast Update: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/nvd.html

• UC Water Operations Home: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/index.html

• Teacups: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/basin/index.html

• 24-Month Study: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/index.html

• DROA: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html

Links

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Reclamation Contacts:

Marc Miller – Water Management Group Chief

970-385-6541 mbmiller@usbr.gov

Susan Novak Behery – Hydrologic Engineer

970-385-6560 sbehery@usbr.gov

To be added to Navajo Dam notices email list, send an email to 

westcoloareaoffice@usbr.gov 

Reclamation Contacts:

Marc Miller – Water Management Group Chief

970-385-6541 mbmiller@usbr.gov

Susan Novak Behery – Hydrologic Engineer

970-385-6560 sbehery@usbr.gov

To be added to Navajo Dam notices email list, send an email to 

westcoloareaoffice@usbr.gov 

Useful Links

Reclamation: www.usbr.gov/uc

USGS: water.usgs.gov/nwis

CBRFC: cbrfc.noaa.gov

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