Navajo Unit Operations

Coordination Meeting

January 16th, 2024

1:00 PM
Recent Storm Cycle
Recent Storm Cycle
Recent Storm Cycle
Recent Storm Cycle
• Introductions

• WY 2024 Operations to date

• Seasonal Weather Outlook– Erin Walter, NWS

• Spring Runoff Forecast– Ashley Nielson, CBRFC

• WY 2024 planned operations

• Maintenance Update

• SJRIP Update

• Comments and Reports

Agenda
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Pool Eleva�on (�)

Flow (cfs)

Navajo Reservoir Opera�ons WY 2024

Pool Eleva�on (�) Inflow (cfs) Release To River (cfs) NIIP (cfs)
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Flow (cfs) 

San Juan River Flows WY 2024

San Juan at Shiprock (cfs) San Juan at 4C (cfs) San Juan at Bluff (cfs) San Juan at Farmington (cfs)

Animas at Farmington (cfs) Navajo Release (cfs) 7-Day Avg Target Base Flow (cfs)
Reclamation Hydro Data 

https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/hydrodata/reservoir_data/site_map.html
Reclamation Hydro Data 

https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/hydrodata/reservoir_data/site_map.html
Reclamation Hydro Data 

https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/hydrodata/reservoir_data/site_map.html

THIS TIME LAST YEAR

THIS TIME LAST YEAR
JAN. 16TH, 2024

1

HYDROLOGIC 

OUTLOOK

NAVAJO RESERVOIR

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GJT
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT

Percent NRCS 1991-2020 Median




U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
El Nino Southern Oscillation

Current Conditions & Prediction

ENSO Status: El Nino Advisory

BUT....

There is more to the story...

The Madden Julian Oscillation 

(MJO)

The Pacific-North American 

teleconnection pattern 

(PNA)
El Nino Southern Oscillation

Current Conditions & Prediction

ENSO Status: El Nino Advisory

BUT....

There is more to the story...

The Madden Julian Oscillation 

(MJO)

The Pacific-North American 

teleconnection pattern 

(PNA)
El Nino Southern Oscillation

Current Conditions & Prediction

ENSO Status: El Nino Advisory

BUT....

There is more to the story...

The Madden Julian Oscillation 

(MJO)

The Pacific-North American 

teleconnection pattern 

(PNA)
El Nino Southern Oscillation

Current Conditions & Prediction

ENSO Status: El Nino Advisory

BUT....

There is more to the story...

The Madden Julian Oscillation 

(MJO)

The Pacific-North American 

teleconnection pattern 

(PNA)
6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
SEASONAL OUTLOOK

JAN, FEB, MAR - CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
IS A WINDY FORECAST ON THE HORIZON?
JAN. 16TH, 2024

16

T H A N K Y O U !

ANY QUESTIONS?

ERIN.WALTER@NOAA.GOV
Navajo Reservoir/San Juan Basin

Water Supply Outlook

January 2024

Ashley Nielson

Senior Hydrologist

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center

National Weather Service/NOAA
2023 Monsoon: July-September Precipitation

2022 2023

2022

Precipitation during the monsoon season was much below normal. On average July-September precipitation accounts for ~20% of the 

annual precipitation in upper elevations in the San Juan River Basin. This can have a significant impact on streamflow during the summer 

and fall months.
Water Year 2024: October-December Observed Precipitation

October November 

Animas River Basin: 40%

Above Navajo Reservoir: 50%

Animas River Basin: 55%

Above Navajo Reservoir: 55%

Observed precipitation is averaged by CBRFC defined basin elevation zones.

December

Animas River Basin: 80%

Above Navajo Reservoir: 65%
Fall Modeled Soil Moisture Conditions San Juan River Basin: Fall 2023 Model Soil Moisture Conditions

Soil moisture conditions are worse than last year for most runoff producing areas due to below normal summer and fall precipitation.

Soil Moisture Impacts on Water Supply / Runoff

Above normal soil moisture conditions → positive impact (increased runoff efficiency)

Below normal soil moisture conditions → negative impact (decreased runoff efficiency)

Runoff Efficiency

● Soil moisture deficit must be fulfilled before runoff can occur.

● Timing/magnitude of runoff is ultimately a result of:

○ Spring Weather (precipitation/temperature)

○ Snow Conditions

○ Soil Moisture Conditions

○ Dust conditions
Water Year 2024: Early January and Water Year to Date Precipitation

Observed precipitation is averaged by CBRFC defined basin elevation zones.

January 1- 15 Observed Precipitation
Snow Conditions

Model snow includes areas above and below SNOTEL sites.

● SNOTEL locations range from ~8,500-11,500’ 

● Some modeled basins extend to over 13,000’

Jan 1: 93% 

Jan 16:126%

January 15 SWE Conditions

NRCS SNOTEL Observed (Squares)

CBRFC Model (Significant Areas)

Jan 1: 59% 

Jan 15: 80%

Jan 1: 62% 

Jan 15: 84%
April-July Forecasts

Volume in 1000’s acre-feet / Percent of 1991-2020 average

Mid-January Water Supply Forecasts: San Juan River Basin

Mid-January 50% exceedance forecasts range from 55-75% average.
90% chance of exceeding 235 KAF / 37% avg

10% chance of NOT exceeding 235 KAF / 37% avg

Blue shading: Daily Raw Model Guidance 90% - 10% exceedance range

Blue line: Daily Raw Model Guidance 50% exceedance

Pink line: Official forecast 90%, 70%, 50%, 30%, 10% exceedance

Green solid: 1991-2020 average April-July volume

Green dotted: 1991-2020 median April-July volume

Brown dotted: Average observed 

• The forecast has increased slightly since January 1st due to 

improved snow conditions.

• Still early in the water supply season. 

Navajo Inflow Forecast Plot Link

Water Supply Forecast: Navajo Reservoir Inflow 

50% chance of exceeding 397 KAF / 63% avg

50% chance of NOT exceeding 397 KAF / 63% avg

Jan 1: 375 KAF / 60% 

10% chance of exceeding 770 KAF / 122% avg

90% chance of NOT exceeding 770 KAF / 122% avg

NOTE: 20% chance that the April-July runoff will fall outside of the forecast range.
Blue shading: Daily Raw Model Guidance 90% - 10% exceedance range

Blue line: Daily Raw Model Guidance 50% exceedance

Pink line: Official forecast 90%, 70%, 50%, 30%, 10% exceedance

Wet Future Weather:

10% chance of exceeding 770 KAF

Water Supply Forecast: Navajo Reservoir Inflow 

Dry Future Weather:

10% chance of NOT exceeding 235 KAF
January 1st Forecast:

What we know:

• ~40% of snowpack accumulation

• Fall soil moisture conditions

What we DON’T know:

• Jan-June weather (5 months)

• ~60% of snowpack accumulation

•

Navajo Reservoir:

Average January Forecast Error: ~200 KAF

Early Season Forecast Uncertainty

January 1
Soil moisture

• Conditions are worse than last year and are below normal.

• Soil moisture deficits must be overcome before runoff can occur. 

• Conditions will most likely have an negative impact on runoff.

• Final impact will depend on spring weather and snow conditions.

Snow

• Snow conditions have improved since early January due to a favorable weather pattern.

• Below to near normal conditions as of mid-January

• Mid-January is a little less than halfway (~40-50%) through the snow accumulation season 

■ Still early in the snow season

January Water Supply Forecasts

• Forecasts range from:

■ Early-January: 50-70% of average

■ Mid-January: 55-75% of average

• Forecast guidance has increased slightly since early January.

Summary
Contact Info

Contact Information

• Ashley Nielson - San Juan River Forecaster

• ashley.nielson@noaa.gov

• 801-524-5130 x333 

• Operational Hydrologist: in office

• 801-524-4004

• cbrfc.operations@noaa.gov

CBRFC Webpage

https://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/

CBRFC Water Supply Presentations

https://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/present/present.php

Contact Info
Official 2024

Water Supply Forecast

(April-July)

as of January 2024

Navajo: 375 kaf (60%* avg)

Vallecito: 118 kaf (67% avg)

Lemon: 30 kaf (63% avg)

Animas: 265 kaf (69% avg)

McPhee: 145 kaf (57% avg)

Powell: 4,200 kaf (66% avg)

*average of the 1991 – 2020 time period
Official 2023

Water Supply Forecast

(April-July)

Navajo: 570 kaf (90%* avg)

Vallecito: 170 kaf (96% avg)

Lemon: 48 kaf (100% avg)

Animas: 385 kaf (100% avg)

McPhee: 260 kaf (102% avg)

Powell: 6,700 kaf (105% avg)

*average of the 1991 – 2020 time period

THIS TIME LAST YEAR
NRCS 2024

Water Supply Forecast

(April-July)
Navajo spring operations are made in accordance with the Record of 

Decision (2006). Spring operations will depend on if there is any 

“available water” after calculating storage levels, upstream reservoir 

operations, and after calculating that all contract releases and 

minimum ESA requirements are met, as well as several other factors. 

Spring Operations Calculations
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Release (cfs)

Reservoir Eleva�on (�)

Navajo Reservoir Forecast Eleva�on and Release WY 2024

as of January 2024 24-Month Study 

Release based on Min Probable Forecast Release based on Most Probable Forecast Release based on Max Probable Forecast

Reservoir Eleva�on based on Min Probable Forecast Reservoir Eleva�on based on Most Probable Forecast Reservoir Eleva�on based on Max Probable Forecast

September 30, 2024

Expected pool eleva�on between 

6026 � and 6050 �

Spring 2024 Spring Opera�ons:

MIN: 37% avg inflow, No spring peak release, no available water

MOST: 60% avg inflow, No spring peak release, no available water

MAX: 123% avg inflow, 21-27 day spring peak release, 370 kaf 

available water

**Forecast range can be HIGHLY variable in early season**
• Project managers for the Turley Manzanares Ditch Company

Diversion Dam Rehabilitation Project have requested a reduction in

the release to 250 cfs for instream work.

• The City of Farmington Power Plant will take this opportunity to do

maintenance as they will not be able to generate power.

• The release will be made through the Auxiliary 4x4 during this 

time.

• This reduction from 350 cfs to 250 cfs will begin Monday, January

29th at 3:00 PM. The release will be restored to 350 cfs on Tuesday, 

January 30th at 8:00 AM.

Reduced release for instream work
Based on the current streamflow conditions, storage levels, and 

statistical outlooks based on 30 years of historical hydrology,

• Navajo Reservoir runoff projections range from 235 kaf (37% avg) –

770 kaf (123% avg) with a median projection of 375 kaf (60% avg).

• Potential for a spring peak release under the Max Probable forecast. 

No spring peak under Min or Most Prob forecast. (Watch for snow! 

We may trend towards the Max just like last year or in 2019.)

• No project shortages are forecast to occur in WY2024.

• Reservoir forecast to peak between 6045 and 6055 ft in spring.

• End of Water Year storage range 925 kaf (6025 ft, 56% full) – 1,170 kaf 

(6055 ft, 71% full)

Projected Operations WY 2024
• An exploratory drilling project has begun on the dam face.

• You may see drill rigs and official personnel working along the face

and crest of the dam through summer 2025.

• Periodic extended road closures will occur on CR 511 (crossing the

dam) and CR 539 (dam crest).

• No road closures are planned during the summer recreational season

(between Memorial Day and Labor Day).

Maintenance Update
• Navajo Project Notices: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/wcao/water/rsvrs/notice/nav_rel.html

• Navajo Monthly Forecast Update: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/nvd.html

• UC Water Operations Home: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/index.html

• Teacups: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/basin/index.html

• 24-Month Study: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/index.html

• DROA: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html

Links

Next Meeting April 23rd
Reclamation Contacts:

Marc Miller – Water Management Group Chief

970-385-6541 mbmiller@usbr.gov

Susan Novak Behery – Hydrologic Engineer

970-385-6560 sbehery@usbr.gov

To be added to Navajo Dam notices email list, send an email to 

westcoloareaoffice@usbr.gov 

Useful Links

Reclamation: www.usbr.gov/uc

USGS: water.usgs.gov/nwis

CBRFC: cbrfc.noaa.gov