Navajo Unit Operations

Coordination Meeting

January 21, 2020

Civic Center, Farmington, NM
• Review of operations to date WY 2020

• Current reservoir status

• Current soil and snowpack conditions

• WY 2020 Forecasts and Proposed Operations

• Navajo Dam maintenance activities

• Reports from other entities

Agenda


Current Reservoir Status
Current Snowpack Status
Weather Outlook

January 2020

Aldis Strautins

NWS Grand Junction, CO

http://www.weather.gov/gjt
The Past

January 2020

Water Year 2020

Temperature

Departure from normal

Precipitation

% of normal
The Past

January 2020

From January 1, 2020

Temperature

Departure from normal

Precipitation

% of normal
Snotel

January 2020

SNOTEL - Percent of Normal

Water Year 2020

SWE Precipitation
Snotel

January 2020

SNOTEL - Percent of Normal - Colorado

Water Year 2020

SWE Precipitation
Snow

January 2020

SNOTEL Snow Water Equivalent – NRCS

Southwestern Colorado
Snow

January 2020

SNOTEL Snow Water Equivalent – NRCS

Southwestern Colorado

SWE Pct of Normal

As of Jan 17

Dolores Basin: 120%

San Juan Basin: 108%

Animas Basin: 117%
Drought

January 2020

January 14, 2020 December 31, 2019

Drought – Monitor
Season La Niña Neutral El Niño

DJF 2020 0% 48% 52%

JFM 2020 1% 56% 43%

FMA 2020 3% 60% 37%

MAM 2020 7% 61% 32%

AMJ 2020 12% 60% 28%

MJJ 2020 16% 57% 27%

JJA 2020 22% 52% 26%

JAS 2020 25% 49% 26%

ASO 2020 28% 46% 26%

ENSO

January 2020

CPC/IRI Early-Month Consensus ENSO Forecast 

Probabilities

(using NWS CPC classification system)

ENSO – Outlook

ENSO- Neutral remaining Neutral
Weather Outlook

January 2019

Seasonal

Drought– Outlook
CPC Seasonal Outlook (updated Jan 16, 2020)

ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern 

Hemisphere spring 2020 (~60% chance), 

continuing through summer 2020 (~50% chance).
CPC Seasonal Outlook (from 2019)

Weak El Niño
CPC Seasonal Outlook (from 2018)

Weak La Niña

• ENSO and strength

• Ocean “blob” locations

• Solar Activity

• Jet Stream characteristics

• Ocean temperature differential amplitude

• Fires in Australia

• Butterflies in Siberia

Many things can affect our storm systems
2019 Monsoon Season Review

● Coming into the monsoon season, the weather pattern featured an unusually persistent trough over 

the western US

● The 2019 monsoon season in the southwest US was the 9th driest and 3rd hottest on record, with 

records dating back to 1895

● An unfavorable mid-level weather pattern (partially caused by the waning influences of El Niño) and a 

decrease in tropical storm activity combined to make this one of the driest monsoons on record

June July August September
Percent of normal 

soil moisture

MODEL DRIVERS

Soil moisture conditions entering the winter season

Fall 2018 Fall 2019

Soil moisture conditions are slightly improved compared to last year but 

are still much below normal due to the dry summer and fall. 
MODEL DRIVERS

January 16 2020

SNOTEL (Observed) and CBRFC (Model)

Snow conditions are near to above normal for early 

January. 

However, snow at the upper elevations is below normal 

due to a dry October which resulted in a slow start to the 

high elevation (>11k ft) snow accumulation season. 
April-July Forecast (as of January 1st)

Volume in 1000’s acre-feet / Percent of 1981-2010 average

San Juan-Bluff

805 / 73%

Vallecito

160 / 82%

Animas-Durango

350 / 84%

Navajo

550 / 75%

San Juan- Farmington

820 / 75%

San Juan-Pagosa

170 / 79%

Early season forecasts are below normal despite decent snow conditions due to dry 

soils and below normal high elevation snowpack.
Water Supply 

Forecasts (April-July)

Navajo: 550kaf (75% avg)

Vallecito: 160kaf (82% avg)

Lemon: 45 kaf (82% avg)

Animas: 350 kaf (84% avg)

McPhee: 260 kaf (88% avg)

Powell: 5900 kaf (82% avg) As of Jan 1, 2020
CBRFC Ensemble Streamflow Prediction 

(ESP) Traces
What does it mean?

Based on current storage levels and the 

ESP trace forecasts, 

• 30% chance of SJRIP-prescribed 

spring peak release of at least 21 days 

at 5,000 cfs

• 97% chance the Sept 30th storage will 

be >6050 ft.

• 30% chance the Sept 30th storage will 

be > 6063 ft.

• Max pool elevation under any 

scenario was 6079 ft in the spring
• Snowpack is slightly above average (109% above Navajo) but dry soils 

coming into the season have kept our inflow forecasts below average 

(Most Probable as of January 1st is 75% of average for Navajo). How 

much will soils impact the forecast? 

• CPC outlook is showing a slight chance for drier than average 

conditions through the spring and a high chance for warmer than 

average. How accurate are these? For record years (2018, 2019, they 

are pretty good. For “average-ish” years, they are not very good.

• Based on current conditions (snowpack and reservoirs), and the range 

of forecast possibilities provided by CBRFC, there is a 30% chance for 

a spring peak release in 2020.

Summary

Next mtg 

April 21st
SJRIP Update
Updates for Reclamation
Reclamation Contacts:

Marc Miller

970-385-6541 mbmiller@usbr.gov

Susan Novak Behery

970-385-6560 sbehery@usbr.gov 

Ruth Swickard

970-385-6523 rswickard@usbr.gov

Useful Links

Reclamation: www.usbr.gov/uc

USGS: water.usgs.gov/nwis

CBRFC: cbrfc.noaa.gov