BUREAU OF RECLAMATION

NAVAJO RESERVOIR COORDINATION MEETING

April 23, 2024

SUMMARY

Dear Interested Party:

Enclosed is a summary of the April 23rd, 2024 meeting to coordinate Bureau of Reclamation’s 

(Reclamation) operation of the Navajo Unit. The meeting was held in person at the Farmington 

Civic Center, with a virtual option via Microsoft Teams video and by phone.

Summary points of the meeting:

• There is no spring peak release planned for this year.

• Snow accumulation so far in Water Year 2024 has, on the whole, been near but 

just below average. There is at least one more storm that will increase the snowpack 

at high elevations. 

• Soil moisture conditions are below average, generally 50 to 70% below average. 

Soil moisture, along with spring weather and other factors, can have significant 

effects on the runoff efficiency. 

• The most recent April-July runoff forecast of the year has a range of 320 kaf 

(51% of average) to 615 kaf (98% of average) with a median forecast of 410 kaf 

(65% of average). 

• Reservoir is expected to peak between 6,050 and 6,060 ft, but this exact number 

depends on the timing of snowmelt.

• The NMISC and TNC have requested JAN subcontracted water to be released in 

late summer and early winter to study the effects of backwater habitats on species in 

the San Juan River. Details can be found in the last section of this document.

Copies of the material presented, and past meeting notes are available online at: 

http://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/nvd.html 

If you have any suggestions on improving the operation meetings or the summaries of the 

meetings, please let us know. 

Next meeting date: Tuesday, August (exact day TBD) 2024 at 1:00 PM. This meeting is 

currently planned to be held in-person at the Farmington Civic Center, in Farmington, NM 

with a virtual option. Please contact sbehery@usbr.gov for questions or updates. 
NAVAJO UNIT OPERATIONS MEETING

April 23rd, 2024

Participation: This meeting was held in person and virtually via Microsoft Teams. The 

attendance list is attached. 

Purpose of Meeting: The purpose of these meetings, held annually in January, April, and 

August, is to gather input for determining upcoming operations for Navajo Reservoir. This input 

is used in Reclamation’s development of an overall 24-month study for operation of Reclamation 

projects in the Upper Colorado River Basin, which includes plans for Glen Canyon, Flaming 

Gorge, Aspinall Unit and Navajo. Input from individuals, organizations, and agencies, along 

with other factors such as weather, water rights, endangered species requirements, flood control, 

hydro power, recreation, fish and wildlife management, and reservoir levels, will be considered 

in the development of these reservoir operation plans. In addition, the meetings are used to 

coordinate activities and exchange information among agencies, water users, and other interested 

parties concerning the San Juan River and Navajo Reservoir.

Operations in WY 2024 so far and Current Conditions in the Basin

Susan Behery, Reclamation, Western Colorado Area Office

The meeting began with a review of the releases and inflows from Navajo Dam since October. 

Water Year 2024 began on October 1, 2023, with Navajo holding 1,146 kaf of live storage (520 

kaf active storage) at elevation 6046.6 ft. The Navajo Indian Irrigation Project (NIIP) ended 

their diversions for the year on October 27th. Since then, releases have averaged about 300cfs, 

with a slight increase this last month to maintain flows before spring runoff starts. Releases are 

made for the authorized purposes of the Navajo Unit, and to attempt to maintain a target base 

flow through the endangered fish critical habitat reach of the San Juan River (Farmington to 

Lake Powell).  The San Juan River Basin Recovery Implementation Program (SJRIP) 

recommends a target base flow of between 500 cfs and 1,000 cfs through the critical habitat area. 

The target base flow is calculated as the weekly average of gaged flows throughout the critical 

habitat area. 

So far inflows for this water year have been 54% of average for this time of year, or 161 

kaf. Releases have managed to stay below average (158 kaf, or 72% of average) while 

maintaining the authorized purposes of the Reservoir and ESA commitments, described 

above. Calculated evaporation totals 7 kaf, NIIP has diverted 28 kaf, and San Juan-Chama has 

diverted 9 kaf. 

Currently, we are below average for pool elevation, but only slightly. Based on similar water 

years as well as models for this year, we should expect it to increase by 10 to 20 feet at its 

maximum, leading to a maximum pool elevation of between 6,050 and 6,060 ft.

As of the meeting date, McPhee holds 292,333 af (77% of live storage). Lake Nighthorse is at 

112,186 af (97% of live storage) and is planned for topping off this spring. Lemon is at 18,221

af (46% of live storage). Vallecito is at 80,609 af (64% live storage), and Jackson is at 5,687 af 

(57% of live storage). Navajo is at 1,084,837 af, or 66% of live storage (46% of active storage).
Around the Upper Colorado River Drainage Basin: Flaming Gorge is 86% full, Blue Mesa is 

65% full, Fontanelle is 38% full, Morrow Point is 94% full, and Lake Powell is 33% full.

Hydrologic Outlook

Erin Walter, National Weather Service (NWS), Grand Junction 

There has been a rapid decline in Now Water Equivalent (SWE) in many basins over the past 

couple weeks. Currently, most basins are between 30 to 50 % of average right now. Earlier this 

year saw SWEs above average, but early April has been warm and dry, causing a steep decline. 

Piedra one of the few basins that still has above average SWE, but is still rapidly decreasing. 

Upper San Juan has dropped below average, and the Animas has dropped to 79% of normal for 

this time of year, whereas the peak SWE was just about average.

Southwestern Colorado has been 0 to 2 degrees warmer than normal which is not helping our 

snowpack, and precipitation has been very low across the San Juans. Drought in the Four 

Corners area hasn’t changed recently (still in the D0 to D2 range), but may expand further north. 

Short term forecast: The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) predicts warm conditions for the next 

few days, but starting Thursday things will cool down and stay cool over the weekend and into 

next week. However, it is officially spring, and the San Juans may see lots of wind (gusts up to 

40mph) leading to dust on snow events. There will likely be a sharp elevation gradient dividing 

where we see snowfall vs rainfall. The 6 to 10 day outlook hints at an active storm system, and 

the 8 to 14 day outlook shows the same thing. May looks to be near normal for both temperature 

and precipitation, which should hopefully help decrease the rate our snow is melting. 

Seasonal Outlook: The CPC predicts hot and dry weather. Remember that climate predictions are 

tough. Snowpack can influence the timing of monsoons (more snow later in the season can lead 

to later/weaker monsoons), so at least that path of reasoning may not have as big of an impact as 

they are predicting, since our SWE has decreased so drastically recently. 

Go to https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ for more information.

Streamflow Forecast and Weather Outlook

Ashley Nielson, Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC), Salt Lake City

Animas River has been very low this water year. So far this year, cumulative inflow has been 

setting a new record low. The Piedra River isn’t as bad. 

Precipitation this April is well below average and temperatures are mostly warm, although this 

upcoming weekend will provide a slight bump in those statistics. SNOTEL sites are below 

average and melting earlier than average. 
Snowpack has varied at different elevations in the region. In high elevations (above 11,000 ft) 

never got to the average snowpack. In mid-elevations (9500 to 11000 ft) eventually reached 

normal snowpack. Low elevations (6,500 to 9,500 ft) never saw normal snowpack.

Water supply forecast is staying below normal for this year. April 1st’s most probable forecast 

was 420 KAF or 67% of average, and decreased slightly (to 410 kaf, or 65% of average) at the 

mid-month forecast. The entire inflow forecast ranges from 320 kaf (51% of average) to 615 kaf 

(98% of average). April 1st forecast has an average error of 18% and May 1st has an average error 

of 15%. Error comes from uncertainty in the future weather and possible extreme events. 

Animas-Durango is forecasted to have a below average peak (57% of normal, or approximately 

3,000 cfs). The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center makes 10-day stream forecasts during 

spring snowmelt, updated by 10am every day. Available at 

www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/lmap/lmap.php?interface=river 

Proposed Operations for remainder of WY 2024

Susan Behery – Reclamation, Western Colorado Area Office

The latest (mid-April) CBRFC official Most Probable April-July runoff forecasts are as follows:

Navajo: 410 kaf (65%* avg)

Vallecito: 135 kaf (76% avg)

Lemon: 34 kaf (71% avg)

Animas: 285 kaf (74% avg)

McPhee: 170 kaf (67% avg)

Powell: 5400 kaf (85% avg)

*average of the 1991 – 2020 time period 

Currently, the forecast inflow and available storage are insufficient for a spring release. Based on 

the decision tree in the San Juan River Recovery Program’s (SJRIP) most recent flow 

procedures, they did not recommend a release. 

Navajo Reservoir could fill between 57 and 92% of average, but even with the 92% average 

there still wouldn’t be a spring peak release. Without a spring peak release, releases will continue 

to target the recommended baseflow in the critical habitat reach (Farmington to Powell)of 

between 500 and 1000 cfs. Remember that this is not the release from the dam. The dam release 

will likely remain at 350 cfs through spring runoff, increasing to as high as 800 or 900 cfs to 

meet the target baseflow. 

Maximum pool elevation in the reservoir will most likely be between 6,050 and 6,060 ft, but this

depends greatly on inflows and timing of spring runoff. Pool elevation at the end of the water 

year (September 30th) is likely between 6,030 and 6,062 ft. The wide range accounts for the high 

variability in operations with and without monsoons.

There will be two 10,000 af releases (one in late summer and the other in early winter) for the 

New Mexico Interstate Stream Commission (NMISC) and The Nature Conservancy (TNC)’s 
requested release of their subcontracted water from the Jicarilla Apache Nation (JAN). These 

releases are expected to support endangered species and compact requirements. This year, they 

will be doing an experiment to elevate baseflow during two periods. Summer (sometime July 

through September, maybe late July early August if things stay dry and hot) would help the 

protected fish species by maintaining connectivity of backwater habits and/or increasing the 

quality of those habits (more dissolved oxygen and lower temperatures) where larval fish are 

developing. Early winter (outside of irrigation season) will still be looking at the same backwater 

habitats to see what other fish species are using these areas, and also the difference in transit 

losses (evapotranspiration) between late summer and early winter. In both cases, it will be a 15-

day release period and the additional flows will be added to the release made to meet the target

baseflow. Each release will be structured in the following way: 5 days of adding 250cfs, 5 days 

of adding 500cfs, and finally another 5 days adding 250cfs. The dam release total will likely 

peak between 1,000 cfs and 1,500 cfs, depending on the weather at the time.

Reclamation’s exploratory drilling project on the dam will continue through 2025, but the roads 

will be open during the summer recreation season (Memorial day through Labor Day). The 

drilling will give Reclamation the necessary information to learn how to best address the seepage 

issues at Navajo Dam. For road closure information, visit NMDOT or Reclamation’s updates at 

this link: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/wcao/water/rsvrs/notice/pdfs/RoadClosureUpdates.pdf

Agency Updates 

San Juan River Recovery Implementation Program (SJRIP): On May 14th and 15th, SJRIP will 

be having another meeting in Durango, Colorado. If interesting in joining, contact Scott Durst 

(scott_durst@fws.gov) for the meeting information.

NM Office of the State Engineer (NMOSE): There may be up to a weeklong outage on the 

website’s real-time diversion information as the switch is made to radio from satellite telemetry. 

This change is being made to hopefully get rid of some of the issues with stations not reporting 

properly. 

 

Links

• Navajo Project Notices: 

https://www.usbr.gov/uc/wcao/water/rsvrs/notice/nav_rel.html 

• Navajo Monthly Forecast Update: 

https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/nvd.html 

• UC Water Operations Home: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/index.html 

• Teacups: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/basin/index.html 

• 24-Month Study: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/index.html 

• DROA: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html 
Attendance List 

Ashley Nielson CBRFC 

Carrie Padgett SWWCD 

Catherine Galvan City of Bloomfield

Christina Noftsker NMISC

Colleen Cunningham NMISC 

Danielle Urich Bureau of Reclamation

Dave Zeller NAPI

Elizabeth Serrano Bloomfield Irrigation District 

Erik Knight Bureau of Reclamation

Erin Walter National Weather Service, Grand Junction

Jason Sullivan RSI

Jeff Derry Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies

Joe and Julie Razor Local Landowners

Julia Bowman NMISC

Justyn Liff Bureau of Reclamation 

Kelsey Deckert Bureau of Reclamation

Kilian Carey Farmington Fire

Lee Traynham Bureau of Reclamation 

Marc Miller Reclamation WCAO 

Mike Mestas SJC OEM 

Norman Norvells SJWG

Pam Norris APS

Prudence Brady City of Bloomfield

Reece Carpenter Bureau of Reclamation

Renae Pablo NAPI 

Richard Blecha NMOSE

Roselyn Yazzie NAPI

Rowan Hannan Albuquerque-Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority

Scott Durst FWS, SJRIP 

Scott Miller APS

Shawn Williams NMOSE

Sherice Snell San Juan Water Commission

Stacy Dodd Bloomfield Irrigation District

Susan Behery Bureau of Reclamation

Tom Chart Grand River Consulting

Tom Miller Farmington Fire