Navajo Unit Operations

Coordination Meeting

April 18th, 2023

1:00 PM

Farmington Civic Center and Microsoft Teams
• Introductions

• WY 2023 Review of operations to date 

• Weather Forecast – Erin Walter, NWS Grand Junction

• Streamflow Forecast – Ashley Nielson, CBRFC

• WY 2023 planned operations

• SJRIP Update – Raphaela Ware, SJRIP

• NMISC Update – Colleen Cunningham, NMISC

• Comments and Reports

Agenda
6005

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6040

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

Pool Eleva�on (�)

Flow (cfs)

Navajo Reservoir Opera�ons WY 2023

Pool Eleva�on (�) Inflow (cfs) Release To River (cfs) NIIP (cfs)
0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

Flow (cfs) 

San Juan River Flows WY 2023

San Juan at Shiprock (cfs) San Juan at 4C (cfs) San Juan at Bluff (cfs)

San Juan at Farmington (cfs) Animas at Farmington (cfs) Navajo Release (cfs)

7-Day Avg Target Base Flow (cfs)
Reclamation Hydro Data 

https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/hydrodata/reservoir_data/site_map.html


April 18th, 2023

Hydrologic Outlook

Navajo Reservoir - San Juan Basin

w w w. w e a t h e r . g o v / g j t

Grand Junction, CO

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
Grand Junction, CO

April 18th, 2023

National Weather Service

2023 Hydrologic Outlook

Snow Pack

April 1st April 16th

Snowpack April 1st versus April 16th
Grand Junction, CO

April 18th, 2023

National Weather Service

Short Term Temperature Outlook: Pagosa Springs (elevation: 7657 ft)

2023 Hydrologic Outlook
Grand Junction, CO

April 18th, 2023

National Weather Service

Short Term Temperature Outlook: Sandavol Mesa (SDVC2, Elevation: 8491 ft)

2023 Hydrologic Outlook
Grand Junction, CO

April 18th, 2023

National Weather Service

Short Term Temperature Outlook: Wolf Creek Pass (elevation: 11759 ft)

2023 Hydrologic Outlook
Grand Junction, CO

April 18th, 2023

National Weather Service

Short Term: 6 to 10 Day Forecast

2023 Hydrologic Outlook
Grand Junction, CO

April 18th, 2023

National Weather Service

Short Term: 8 to 14 Day Forecast

2023 Hydrologic Outlook
Grand Junction, CO

April 18th, 2023

National Weather Service

Mid Range Forecast: 6 to 10 Day Above (red) vs Below (blue) Normal Temp

2023 Hydrologic Outlook

6 to 8 Days 9 to 11 Days 12 to 14 Days
Grand Junction, CO

April 18th, 2023

National Weather Service

Mid Range Forecast: 6 to 14 Day Above (green) vs Below (brown) Normal Precip

2023 Hydrologic Outlook

6 to 8 Days 9 to 11 Days 12 to 14 Days
Grand Junction, CO

April 18th, 2023

National Weather Service

Three Month Outlook (May - July)

2023 Hydrologic Outlook

Monsoon Related?!
Grand Junction, CO

April 18th, 2023

National Weather Service

Current ENSO Status & Predictions: Updated April 17th

2023 Hydrologic Outlook

Current ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Watch

ENSO-neutral conditions are observed and expected to continue 

through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer 2023
Grand Junction, CO

April 18th, 2023

National Weather Service

2023 Hydrologic Outlook

Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) Water Year Precipitation (%)

SWE vs Precipitation [NRCS]
Grand Junction, CO

April 18th, 2023

National Weather Service

Subbasin Averages [NRCS]

2023 Hydrologic Outlook

Upper San Juan

157%

Piedra

247%
Grand Junction, CO

April 18th, 2023

National Weather Service

Subbasin Projections [NRCS]

2023 Hydrologic Outlook

Colorado Subbasin Projections
Grand Junction, CO

April 18th, 2023

National Weather Service

Subbasin Averages & Projections [NRCS]

2023 Hydrologic Outlook

Animas

157% Subbasin Projections
Grand Junction, CO

National Weather Service

April 18th, 2023

Thank you!

Any Questions?

email: erin.walter@noaa.gov

office phone: 970-256-9463

cell phone: 720-384-7792

2023 Hydrologic Outlook

Helpful Links:

CBRFC Homepage: https://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/lmap/lmap.php

NRCS Colorado: https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/wcc/home/quicklinks/states/colorado
Navajo Reservoir/San Juan Basin

Water Supply Outlook

April 2023

Ashley Nielson

Hydrologist

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center

National Weather Service/NOAA
March Precipitation/Temperature

Animas River Basin: 225%

Above Navajo Reservoir: 230%

Observed precipitation is averaged by CBRFC defined basin elevation zones.

March 2023 Precipitation
April 1, 2023

● Snow is above normal at all elevations.

● Snowmelt has started over the last week at elevations below 11,000’.

Snow Conditions: CBRFC Model Snow 

April 16, 2023
Snow Conditions: CBRFC Model Snow 

Animas-Silverton

BLUE: >11000’

GREEN:<11000’

DASHED:91-20 Median

122%

159%

San Juan-Pagosa Springs

BLUE: >11000’

RED: 9500’-11000’

GREEN:<9500’

DASHED:91-20 Median

133%

159%
April-July Forecasts

Volume in 1000’s acre-feet / Percent of 1991-2020 average

Mid-April Water Supply Forecasts: San Juan River Basin

Mid-April 50% exceedance forecasts range from 140-235% average.
90% chance of exceeding 800 KAF / 127% avg

10% chance of NOT exceeding 800 KAF / 127% 

avg

Blue shading: Daily Raw Model Guidance 90% - 10% exceedance range

Blue line: Daily Raw Model Guidance 50% exceedance

Pink line: Official forecast 90%, 70%, 50%, 30%, 10% exceedance

Green solid: 1991-2020 average April-July volume

Green dotted: 1991-2020 median April-July volume

Brown dotted: Average observed

Orange dashed: 2023 Observed Streamflow

• Forecast range: 800-1170 KAF/ 127-186%

○ 800 KAF/127%: dry spring weather (2002,2020) 

○ 985 KAF/156%: normal spring weather

○ 1170 KAF/186%: wet spring weather (2019,1995)

• 20% chance the April-July runoff will fall outside the forecast range.

Navajo Inflow Forecast Plot Link

Forecast Progression: Navajo Reservoir Inflow 

Mid-Month Forecast:

50% chance of exceeding 985 KAF / 156% avg

50% chance of NOT exceeding 985 KAF / 156% avg

Apr 1 Forecast: 945 KAF/ 150% 

10% chance of exceeding 1170 KAF / 186% avg

90% chance of NOT exceeding 1170 KAF / 186% avg

 Observed: 91 KAF (provisional)
Navajo Reservoir Inflow

April 1st 50% Forecast 1991-2021

Mar 1st average error: 22% 

Apr 1st average error: 18% 

May 1st average error: 15% 

YEAR

APR 1 FCST 

(KAF)

OBSERVED 

(KAF) Error KAF / %

 2001 830 826 2 / 0%: 

2019 920 1163 243 / 20%: under

2023 945 ? ?

1997 1030 1022 8/0.8%over

1995 1080 1142 62 / 5%:under

Historical Forecast Errors with similar April 1 Forecasts

Navajo Reservoir Inflow Forecast Verification

Over forecast

Under forecast

Primary Sources of Forecast Error:

● Future Weather

○ Uncertainty in precipitation and temperature forecasts

○ Extreme dry/wet events results in larger errors

■ Rarely forecast in advance

● Model States: Is the model representative of reality?

○ Snow

■ SNOTELs and Satellite images used to verify 

○ Soil moisture

■ Extensive analysis done in Fall
Animas River Peak Flow Forecast

Animas-Durango Peak Flow Dashboard

Many different runoff scenarios are still possible. 

Peak flow magnitude and timing will depend on 

spring weather.

Animas-Durango Forecast Hydrographs 
10-Day Streamflow Forecasts

https://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/lmap/lmap.php?interface=river

● 10-day streamflow forecasts use:

○ 7-day precipitation forecast

○ 10-day temperature forecast
• Snow

• Above normal conditions at all elevations

• Delayed melt of low elevation snow due to a cold and wet March.

• Snowmelt has started of over the last week resulting in streamflow rises.

• April Water Supply Forecasts

• Above normal precipitation and below normal temperatures in March significantly improved water supply 

conditions.

■ Additional snow accumulation at all elevations

■ Delayed snowmelt

• Mid-April 50% forecasts range from 140-235% of average.

• Expecting above average April-July runoff volumes for all locations.

• Forecast uncertainty still exists in spring weather and how that will impact water supply forecasts.

■ Wet spring may result in higher water supply volumes.

■ Dry spring may result lower water supply volumes.

• Peak Flow Forecasts:

• Expecting above average peak flows.

• Peak flows will be much higher than the previous two years.

• High water and flooding are a concern but will depend on snowmelt timing and pattern.

Summary:
CBRFC Webpage

https://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/

CBRFC Water Supply Presentations

https://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/present/present.php

Contact Information

Ashley Nielson

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center

Hydrologist-San Juan River Forecaster

Email: ashley.nielson@noaa.gov

Phone: 801-524-5130 x333

Operational Hydrologist

Available 7 days as week: 6:30am-4pm

Email: cbrfc.operations@noaa.gov

Phone: 801-524-4004
Official

Water Supply Forecast

(April-July)

as of April 2023

Navajo: 945 kaf (150%* avg)

Vallecito: 255 kaf (144% avg)

Lemon: 77 kaf (160% avg)

Animas: 590 kaf (153% avg)

McPhee: 515 kaf (202% avg)

Powell: 11,300 kaf (177% avg)

*average of the 1991 – 2020 time period 
The January min/max range was 385 kaf to 1,010 kaf. Since January, with the 

accumulated snowpack, we have trended towards the Max Probable forecast from 

January. Therefore operations presented will look similar to what we presented in 

the Max Probable back in January.
0

100020003000400050006000700080009000

1000011000

4/10/2023 5/10/2023 6/10/2023 7/10/2023 

Flow (cfs)

Most Probable Release and resulting flows at Four Corners WY 

Based on Mid‐April 2023 Most Probable Forecast

San Juan at Four Corners Most Probable Navajo Dam Release (cfs)
SPRING OPERATIONS PLAN

• Purpose: channel maintenance and cleaning, meeting Endangered

Species flow goals. Release is planned as per Reclamation’s Record of

Decision, 2006.

• Length: Spring flushing release of 7-10 days at 5,000 cfs. Ramp-up

during the release will be coordinated with federal, state, local

agencies on a daily basis. (May be larger as forecast increases.)

• Timing: The release will be timed with the Animas River peak to

maximize potential ESA benefits (likely mid/late May to start ramp

up)

• Reservoir Elevations: The peak elevation will likely be 6060-6075 ft,

but could vary greatly based on weather/timing of runoff!
Animas Peak Forecast and Timing
Dust! A storm April 3rd had a dramatic 

effect on the dust situation. The 

Dolores, Grand Mesa, central and 

north-central mountains were more 

affected than the San Juans this time. 

Still enough that we will be paying 

attention.

Why do we care about dust? Dust 

layers make snowpack:

1. Melt faster

2. Melt earlier

This exposes soils earlier, reducing soil 

moisture, reducing runoff efficiency, 

and therefore volumes, and offsets the 

runoff with typical irrigation patterns. 

Data from Jeff Derry, Center for Snow 

and Avalanche Studies 
• Runoff projections range from 800 kaf (127% of average) to 1170 kaf

(186% of average) with a median of 945 kaf (150% of average)

• A maintenance release of 150-180 kaf is being planned, peaking at

5,000 cfs for 7-10 days. (Length may change as forecast evolves)

• Reservoir is forecast to peak between 6060 and 6075 ft (depending

on timing of runoff and release). (could be higher!)

• End of water year (September 30th) reservoir elevation is projected to

be 6050 to 6060 ft.

Projected Operations WY 2023
• Drought Response Operations Plan (DROA)- releases from

Initial Units to Lake Powell

• DROA Year 2023 is May 1, 2023 – April 30, 2024

• No releases are planned at this time.

• The Initial Unit Workgroups (Navajo, Flaming Gorge,

Aspinall) have begun meeting to update Attachments that

are part of the DROA Plan. Navajo Unit is under “Attachment

E”.

• DROA webpage: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html

Operations – DROA in WY 2023
• Navajo Project Notices: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/wcao/water/rsvrs/notice/nav_rel.html

• Sign up for emails from me 

• Navajo Monthly Forecast Update: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/nvd.html

• Social Media:

• Reclamation Colorado River Basin Facebook Page: 

https://www.facebook.com/coloradoriverbasin

• UC Water Operations Home: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/index.html

• DROA: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html

Stay up to date....

Next Meeting August 22nd (?)
Reclamation Contacts:

Marc Miller – Water Management Group Chief

970-385-6541 mbmiller@usbr.gov

Susan Novak Behery – Hydrologic Engineer

970-385-6560 sbehery@usbr.gov

To be added to Navajo Dam notices email list, send an email to 

westcoloareaoffice@usbr.gov 

Useful Links

Reclamation: www.usbr.gov/uc

USGS: water.usgs.gov/nwis

CBRFC: cbrfc.noaa.gov
JAN • NMISC • TNC

Water Lease Agreement in the San 

Juan Basin

April 18, 2023

Presenters:

Colleen Cunningham, NMISC

Joe Trungale, TNC

© Jacob Mazzone
The JAN Water Lease Project

• NMISC obtained a permit to release up to 20,000 AF of water annually from 

Navajo Reservoir into the San Juan River beginning in 2023 

• Water was obtained for up to 10 yrs from the JAN through a lease agreement 

with the NMISC and TNC

• Permitted water would meet the purposes of the Strategic Water Reserve

• Water is for compact compliance and endangered species management

• The leased water was previously diverted by PNM at the PNM Weir in Fruitland, 

NM

• Parties of the agreement sought to identify alternative uses of this water to 

provide the most benefit to the endangered Colorado pikeminnow and the 

razorback sucker 
Approach

• A Technical Team consisting of representatives of the NMISC, JAN, and 

TNC was assembled to identify alternative uses for this water

• The Team elicited input from 14 experts in hydrology, geomorphology, 

and fisheries with direct knowledge of the San Juan River

• The Team conferred with Susan Behery of BOR to better understand 

dam operations
Flow Release Alternatives

Three alternatives were examined:

• Supplement Winter Releases (Jan-May)

• Supplement a Spring Peak (May-Jun)

• Supplement Summer Baseflow (Jul-Sep)
Supplement Winter Releases (Jan-May)

High magnitude/short duration flushing flow 

Potential benefit: To clean gravel of sediment for razorback sucker 

spawning before the spring runoff

Potential drawback: Not limiting factor for razorback sucker
Supplement the Spring Peak (May-Jun)

Add water to annual spring peak

Potential benefit: Spring peak high flow events are the most important 

missing component of the current flow regime 

Potential drawback: 20KAF is by itself not enough to produce an 

additive ecological benefit
Supplement Summer Baseflow (Jul-Sep)

Increase post-runoff baseflows 

Potential benefits:

• Maintain/increase low velocity rearing habitat

• Increase survival/recruitment of RBS/CPM early life stages

Potential drawbacks:

• Water losses and unquantified use

• Several years of adaptive management may be necessary to determine 

optimal release(s)
Initial 2023 JAN Lease Release Decision

Initial 2023 Release Decision:

• Apply to spring peak if 20K tips the scale to make a release

• If not, supplement summer baseflow to benefit rearing habitats

Justification:

• Low velocity rearing habitats critical limiting factor for RBS/CPM

• High spring flow critical to create/maintain habitat, but low likelihood

• Baseflow supplement provides “biggest bang for the buck”
SJRIP: Spring Maintenance Release

Biological Committee Recommendation on Spring Release:

• Release a minimum of 7 days at 5,000 cfs if Animas River runoff peak is projected 

sufficient to meet SJRIP Flow Recommendations’ 5-days at 10,000 cfs or 10-days at 

8,000 cfs flow targets. Less than the 21 day Spring Peak Release in Decision Tree.

• If the Animas River is no longer contributing enough to meet these targets, 

recommend the release be ramped down to reach target baseflows to save water

Coordination Committee also provided comments

Final Decision on volume and duration by BOR
Where the NMISC is with the JAN release

NMISC Decision on Release of JAN Lease Water:

• Waiting for more details on the volume and duration of the spring 

“maintenance” release

• Will decide on augmenting a spring release versus summer baseflow in the 

next few weeks
What we hope to learn...

• Implementation – practical issues related to coordination

• Flows – released flows observed at the downstream gages

• Physical – distribution, connectivity, and quality of backwaters

• Biological – larval/YOY fish persistence in the backwaters

• Adaptive Management – incorporate what we learn into subsequent 

years’ decisions