Navajo Unit Operations

Coordination Meeting

April 19th, 2022 1:00 PM

Microsoft Teams Virtual Meeting
• Introductions

• Review of operations to date WY 2022

• Weather Summary and Outlook – Aldis Strautins, NWS

• Streamflow Summary and Outlook – Ashley Nielson, CBRFC

• WY 2022 proposed operations

• Drought Response Operations Update

• Comments and Reports

Agenda
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Pool Eleva�on (�)

Flow (cfs)

Navajo Reservoir Opera�ons WY 2022

Pool Eleva�on (�) Inflow (cfs) Release To River (cfs) NIIP (cfs)
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Flow (cfs)

San Juan River Flows WY 2022

San Juan at Shiprock (cfs) San Juan at 4C (cfs) San Juan at Bluff (cfs)

San Juan at Farmington (cfs) Animas at Farmington (cfs) Navajo Release (cfs)

Reclamation Teacup Diagrams

https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/basin/index.html
Reclamation Teacup Diagrams

https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/basin/index.html
April 2022

Weather Outlook

Aldis Strautins

National Weather Service

Grand Junction, CO

http://www.weather.gov/gjt
April 2022 Outline

• Precipitation and Temperature

• Snow Water Equivalent

• Drought

• ENSO

• Weather outlook
April 2022 Sep – Nov, 2021 - Precipitation

(percent of normal)

Dry fall for three quarters of the western slope going into the winter season
Water Year 2022 through mid April April 2022

Temperature

Departure from normal

Precipitation

% of normal
Water year Precipitation (two stories) April 2022

Oct 1 – Dec 31, 2021

Dry Nov and early Dec / Very wet late Dec

Jan 1 – Apr 13, 2022

Below normal since Jan 1
Water year Temperature (two stories) April 2022

Oct 1 – Dec 31, 2021

Dry Nov and early Dec / Very wet late Dec

Jan 1 – Apr 13, 2022

Below normal since Jan 1
April 2022 Percent of Normal - Monthly QPE 

November 2021

December 2021

January 2022

Quantitative precipitation estimation or QPE is a 

method of approximating the amount of 

precipitation that has fallen at a location or across 

a region.
April 2022 Percent of Normal - Monthly QPE 

February 2022

January 2022 March 2022
April 2022 April 2022

Temperature

Departure from normal

Precipitation

% of normal
April 2022 SNOTEL Snow Water Equivalent – NRCS

88% of Median

Yay...Late December Snow

Increased from 5in to over 10in 

(SWE) (124% of Median)

Yay...Late February Snow

Ok...Some March Snow

Southwestern Colorado
April 2022 Drought

April 12, 2022 October 5, 2021

Drought Monitor (Colorado Basin View)
April 2022 Drought

April 12, 2022 April 13, 2021

Drought Monitor (State View)
April 2022 ENSO - Outlook

Season La Niña Neutral El Niño

MAM 100 0 0

AMJ 89 11 0

MJJ 73 27 0

JJA 59 40 1

JAS 52 44 4

ASO 51 42 7

SON 53 39 8

OND 54 37 9

NDJ 53 37 10

CPC/IRI Early-Month Consensus ENSO 

Forecast Probabilities

(using NWS CPC classification system)

La Nina this Spring - Maybe Neutral late this Summer
April 2022 ENSO 

North of Colorado – Dry and Warm

South of Colorado – Wet and Cool

North of Colorado – Wet and Cool

South of Colorado – Dry and Warm
WPC 7 April 2022 -Day Precipitation Outlook

Accumulation period from Apr 18-25
April 2022 Outlook

April 23 - 27 April 23 – 27
April 2022 Outlook

April 25 – May 1 April 25 – May 1
Monthly April 2022 Outlook

Precipitation

April

Temperature

April
April 2022 Seasonal Outlook

Precipitation

May/Jun/Jul

Temperature

May/Jun/Jul
April 2022 Seasonal Outlook

Precipitation

Jun/Jul/Aug

Temperature

Jun/Jul/Aug
April 2022 Seasonal Outlook

Precipitation

Jul/Aug/Sep

Temperature

Jul/Aug/Sep
Navajo Reservoir/San Juan Basin

Water Supply Outlook

April 2022

Ashley Nielson

Senior Hydrologist

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center

National Weather Service/NOAA
Fall 2021 % Change: 2021-2020

Fall Modeled Soil Moisture Conditions: 2020 vs. 2021 

CBRFC Modeled Soil Moisture:

● Represents the deep soil layer

● Source of longer-term (weeks to years) streamflow 

● Impacts water supply forecasts

○ Below average conditions = lower forecasts

○ Above average conditions = higher forecasts

● Soil moisture conditions improved from record/near record dry levels last year but remain below normal across 

the majority of the San Juan River Basin.
April 18, 2022

*Only areas above 9000 ft that are significant to runoff

● Modeled snow is below normal at all elevations.

○ Slightly better conditions above Navajo Reservoir

● Significant melt has occurred below 11,000’; earlier than normal.

● Snow accumulation still possible above 11,000’

○ Normal time of peak of SWE = Early May

Snow Conditions: CBRFC Model Snow Water Equivalent

 >11000’: 75% 

 < 9000’-11000’: 62%

 

<9500’: Melted out

 

9500’-11000’: 71% 

>11000’: 82% 
April 18, 2022

● Snow Contamination Grids from NASA/Jet Propulsion Lab

○ “Dust-on-snow” data

● Grids are used both in model calibration and daily operations

○ Calibration:

■ Grids used for 2000-2020 period

■ Help to fine tune snowmelt timing at high elevations

○ Daily operations:

■ Can apply a temperature adjustment to the snow 

model based on daily contamination grids. 

■ Temperature adjustment can helps improve model 

streamflow simulations and short term forecasts. 

Dust Accounting: CBRFC Model 
April-July Forecasts

Volume in 1000’s acre-feet / Percent of 1991-2020 average

San Juan-Bluff

670 / 60%

April Water Supply Forecasts: San Juan River Basin

April 50% exceedance forecasts range from 55-75% average.

Vallecito

128 / 72%

Navajo 

Reservoir

 390 / 62%

San JuanPagosa

140 / 72% PiedraArboles

109 / 60% Rio BlancoPagosa

36 / 74%

San Juan-Bluff

670 / 60%

AnimasDurango

275 / 71%

Location April 2022 Forecast 

KAF/ % of AVG

2021 April-July 

Observed Volume

KAF/ % of AVG

San Juan River -Pagosa 140 / 72% 135 / 69%

Piedra nr Arboles 109 / 60% 101 / 55%

Navajo Reservoir 390 / 62% 378 / 60%

Lemon Reservoir 32 / 67% 29 / 60%

Vallecito Reservoir 128 / 72% 127 / 72%

Animas-Durango 275 / 71% 210 / 55%

The April 50% exceedance forecasts are very 

similar to the observed April-July volumes in 2021. 

Forecast guidance has decreased by 5-10% of average since early April.
April Precipitation and Temperature to Date
Blue shading: Daily Raw Model Guidance 90% - 10% exceedance range

Blue line: Daily Raw Model Guidance 50% exceedance

Pink line: Official forecast 90%, 70%, 50%, 30%, 10% exceedance

Brown dotted: Average observed

Orange dashed: 2022 Observed Streamflow

Navajo Reservoir Inflow Forecast Plot Link

San Juan River Forecast Plots Link

10%

50%

90%

Average/Median

10% chance volume will be greater 

than 590 KAF/ 94% of average

April 18 50% Forecast: 380 KAF / 60% 

90% chance volume will be greater 

than 315 KAF/ 50% of average 

 Observed: 47 KAF (provisional)

Water Supply Forecast Evolution: Navajo Reservoir
Navajo Reservoir Inflow

April 1st Forecast 1991-2021

Mar 1st average error: 22% 

Apr 1st average error: 18% 

May 1st average error: 15% 

YEAR

APR 1 FCST 

(KAF)

OBSERVED 

(KAF) Error KAF / %

2003 400 307 93 / 30%: over

2006 395 379 16 / 4%: over

2021 395 378 17 / 4% over

2022 390 ? ?

1999 375 755 380 / 50%:under

Historical Forecast Errors with similar April 1 Forecasts

Forecast Verification

Over forecast

Under forecast

Primary Sources of Forecast Error:

● Future Weather

○ Uncertainty in precipitation and temperature forecasts

○ Extreme dry/wet events results in larger errors

■ Rarely forecast in advance

● Model States: Is the model representative of reality?

○ Snow

■ SNOTELs and Satellite images used to verify 

○ Soil moisture

■ Extensive analysis done in Fall
• Soil moisture

• Conditions have improved from last year but are still below normal.

• Soil moisture deficits still exist and will need to be overcome before runoff can occur.

• Impact on runoff uncertain and depends on spring weather and snowmelt pattern. 

• Snow

• Below normal conditions at all elevations

• Significant melt at elevations below 11,000’

• Another year with early melt

• April Water Supply Forecasts

• Early April forecasts range from 55-75% of average

• Forecast guidance has decreased by 5-10% of average

• Forecasts are similar to the observed volumes in 2021 

• Early Runoff Implications:

• Impacts depend on specific basin characteristics

• Could be less efficient early in the melt due to dry soils

• Could be more efficient due to faster melting snow pack

• Could cause increased evapotranspiration in the later portion of the normal runoff period as bare ground and soils 

dry out sooner; ultimately leading to lower flows.

Summary
CBRFC Webpage

https://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/

CBRFC Operations

cbrfc.operations@noaa.gov

801-524-4004

CBRFC Water Supply Presentations

https://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/present/present.php

Basin Focal Points (Forecasters)

Brenda Alcorn - Green, Duchesne, White/Yampa

brenda.alcorn@noaa.gov

Ashley Nielson – Gunnison, San Juan, Dolores, Lake Powell

ashley.nielson@noaa.gov

Cody Moser – Upper Colorado Mainstem

cody.moser@noaa.gov

Patrick Kormos – Great Basin/Sevier

patrick.kormos@noaa.gov

Trevor Grout - Virgin, Lower Colorado

trevor.grout@noaa.gov

Tracy Cox - Hydrometeorologist

tracy.cox@noaa.gov

Nanette Hosenfeld - Senior Hydrometeorologist

nanette.hosenfeld@noaa.gov

Wolfgang Hanft - Hydrometeorologist

wolfgang.hanft@noaa.gov

Michelle Stokes – Hydrologist In Charge

michelle.stokes@noaa.gov

Paul Miller– Service Coordination Hydrologist

paul.miller@noaa.gov

John Lhotak – Development and Operations Hydrologist

john.lhotak@noaa.gov

801-524-5130 x 333

CBRFC Contacts
Official

Water Supply Forecast

(April-July)

Navajo: 390 kaf (62% avg)

Vallecito: 128 kaf (72% avg)

Lemon: 32 kaf (67% avg)

Animas: 275 kaf (71% avg)

McPhee: 152 kaf (60% avg)

Powell: 4,100 kaf (64% avg)

April Official
Runoff observed so far

April 2022

MUI Forecast* = 83 kaf

Observed so far = 46.6 kaf

% of MUI observed so far = 56%

* April Most Probable CBRFC Forecast

April-July 2022

MUI Forecast* = 390 kaf 

Observed so far = 46.6 kaf

% of MUI observed so far = 12%
April 1 Forecast
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Release (cfs)

Reservoir Eleva�on (�)

Navajo Reservoir Forecast Eleva�on and Release

as of April 2022 24-Month Study

Release based on Min Probable Forecast Release based on Most Probable Forecast

Release based on Max Probable Forecast Reservoir Eleva�on based on Min Probable Forecast

Reservoir Eleva�on based on Most Probable Forecast Reservoir Eleva�on based on Max Probable Forecast

September 30, 2022

Max Probable 6040 �

Most Probable 6022 �

Min Probable 6005 �

September 30, 2023

Max Probable 6049 �

Most Probable 6048 �

Min Probable 6005 �

WY-2023

MIN probable min

eleva�on of 6003 �

WY-2022

SJRIP- Recommended

Spring Opera�ons:

Max Probable: No SPR

Most Probable: No SPR

Min Probable: No SPR

WY-2023

SJRIP- Recom Spring Ops:

Max Probable: 38-day SPR

Most Probable: No SPR

Min Probable: No SPR
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Release (cfs)

Navajo Reservoir Forecast Opera�ons- Summer 2022

as of April 2022 24-Month Study

MAX Release MOST Release MIN Release Max TBF Most TBF Min TBF MAX PE MIN PE MOST PE
Based on current streamflow conditions, storage levels, and statistical 

outlooks based on 35 years of historical hydrology,

• April-July runoff projections range from 315 kaf (50% avg) – 590 kaf 

(94% avg) with a median projection of 390 kaf (62% avg). 

• No planned SJRIP-prescribed Spring Peak Release in WY 2022. 

Summer releases will likely range from 600 cfs to 1,000 cfs.

• No projected shortage to contracted water users in WY 2022

• End of Water Year Storage: 740 kaf live/112 kaf active (6005 ft, 45% 

full) – 1,060 kaf live/434 kaf active (6040 ft, 64% full) with a median 

projection of 880 kaf live/254 active (6022 ft, 53% full)

Projected Operations WY 2022
Lemon Reservoir:

• Forecast runoff 58% 

average

• Forecast peak 62% full

Vallecito Reservoir:

• Forecast runoff 90% average

• Forecast peak 77% full

McPhee Reservoir:

• Forecast runoff 61% average

• Forecast peak 64% full

Lake Nighthorse:

• Animas forecast runoff 71% average

• Anticipated pumping 30 days at 64 cfs, 

total volume of 3779 af
• Statistical Averages

• The 30-year average used across agencies progresses every decade

• The time period for statistics has been updated to 1991 - 2020

• Navajo April – July Modified Unregulated Inflow averages:

• 1981 – 2010: 737 kaf

• 1991 – 2020: 628 kaf

• Navajo Area-Capacity Tables were updated and implemented in 

October of 2021. Updated live storage is 1.65 maf (1.70 maf

previously)

Updates (reminder):


H. Outreach Summary

0 - -
Tuesday, 1:00 PM

Planning in-person with a virtual/phone option.

Farmington Civic Center, Farmington, NM

Next Meeting August 23rd 2022
Reclamation Contacts:

Marc Miller – Water Management Group Chief

970-385-6541 mbmiller@usbr.gov

Susan Novak Behery – Hydrologic Engineer

970-385-6560 sbehery@usbr.gov

To be added to Navajo Dam notices email list, send an email to 

westcoloareaoffice@usbr.gov 

Useful Links

Reclamation: www.usbr.gov/uc

USGS: water.usgs.gov/nwis

CBRFC: cbrfc.noaa.gov