Navajo Unit Op

January 

Coordination 
Agenda

•Welcome•Review 2007 Operations •Current Forecast and Proposed 2008 Op•Recommendations for San Juan River 

Administration and Operation

•Navajo Dam Maintenance Activities•Fish & Wildlife Service/San Juan RIP Up•Reports from other Agencies•Questions from Audience•How To Access Information•Close
Review of 

2007 

Operations
San Juan Basin 1 Multiple Station Snotel Plo

05

101520253035

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 

Snow Water Equivalent (inches)

avg 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (N

Navajo Reservoir April-July Modified Unregulated Inf

0

100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000

1,000,0001,100,0001,200,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 

Forecast Date

April-July Forecast (af)

Max Most Min 30-Yr Average
Year 2007 Navajo Res 

Month Inflow (af) % of Averag

January 21,441 1

February 30,768 1

March 104,384 1

April 87,061 

May 200,171 

June 154,363 

July 46,398 

August 58,874 

September 40,552 

October 56,731 1

November 17,230 

December 40,149 1

Total 858,122 

Apr-Jul 487,993 

Aug-Dec 213,536 
2007 NAVAJO RESERVOIR OPERATION

Inflow, Release, NIIP Div, WS Elev

0

1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep O

2007

Daily Inflow, Release and NIIP Div 

(cfs)

NIIP (cfs) Releases (cfs) Inflow (cfs) W
San Juan River

USGS Daily Streamflow 2007

0

1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000

10,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 

2007

Mean Daily Streamflow (cfs)

Archuleta Farmington Shiprock Four Corners Blu
San Juan River

USGS Daily Streamflow 2007

with 7-Day Moving Mean

0

1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000

10,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 

2007

Mean Daily Streamflow (cfs)

Archuleta Farmington Shiprock Four Corners Bluff 
San Jua

USGS Daily Str

with 7-Day Moving Mean 

0

1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 

2007

Mean Daily Streamflow (cfs)

Target Base Flow Archuleta 7DMM
Current Forecast 

and

Proposed Operation

for 2008

Basin Elev

Site Name (ft) Current Average Pct of Cu

(in) (in) Avg 

BEARTOWN 11600 16.2 13.1 124 

MIDDLE CREEK 11250 15.6 10.6 147 

STUMP LAKES 11200 14.2 10.9 130 

LILY POND 11000 12.9 8.1 159 

WOLF CREEK SUMMIT 11000 27.4 17.2 159 

VALLECITO 10880 14.7 10.5 140 

UPPER SAN JUAN 10200 28.6 15.9 180 

CUMBRES TRESTLE 10040 24.4 13.3 183 

CHAMITA 8400 9.5 5.2 183 

BEARTOWN 11600 16.2 13.1 124 

RED MOUNTAIN PASS 11200 17.6 12.4 142 

STUMP LAKES 11200 14.2 10.9 130 

COLUMBUS BASIN 10785 18.4 12.8 144 

SPUD MOUNTAIN 10660 21 15.6 135 

MOLAS LAKE 10500 15.7 11.1 141 

MINERAL CREEK 10040 11.1 8.2 135 

CASCADE #2 8920 11.3 7.7 147 

CASCADE 8880 13.3 7.2 185 

Snow Water Equivalent Y

Colorado River Basin SNOTEL Snow/Precipitation Up

Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites

**Provisional data, subject to revision**

Data based on the first reading of the day (typically 00:00) for Thursday, Ja

ANIMAS RIVER BASIN 

Basin-wide percent of average 140 

SAN JUAN RIVER HEADWATERS 

Basin-wide percent of average 156 
NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center

San Juan Basin Multiple Station Snotel Plot

Current Snowpack is (18.2/12) = 152% of Avera

05

10152025303540

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 

Snow Water Equivalent (inches)

79-2007 Avg 2008 2001 2002 2003 2004 
CBRFC - Navajo Reservoir Most, Maximum and Minimum M

Inflow Forecasts (ac-ft)

0

200,000400,000600,000800,000

1,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,0001,800,000

Jan 

Forecast Date

A pr-Jul Outlook

Max Most Min 30-Yr 
January 15th 2008

Navajo Reservoir Unregulate

July Inflow Forecast

Inflow (af) 

Most Probable 1,030,000 Minimum Probable 635,000 Maximum Probable 1,560,000 
Navajo Reservoir Most, Maximum and Min

Inflows based on the January Mid Mon

0

50,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000500,000

*OCT07

*NOV07

*DEC07

JAN08

FEB08

MAR08

APR08

MAY08

Inflow (af)

30-Yr Avg Min Prob Most Pro
2008 Spring Release Decision Tree Values Based on th

Forecast for the Most, Minimum and Maximum P

Most 

Probable

1 *Available Water (acre-feet): 1,049,00

2 **Spill (acre-feet): 348,00

3 Fish Releases:

2005 344,000 (acre-feet)2006 140,000 (acre-feet)2007 233,000 (acre-feet)

4 Was there a perturbation? Yes5 Spring Release Volume (acre-feet) (above the base flow) 340,00

 where: where:

Flow Chart Parameters

* Available Water = Predicted Inflow + Available Storage -NIIP Diversions - EVAP - Base Re

Available Storage = End of March Storage - Minimum Carryover Storage (1,0

** Spill = Predicted inflow - NIIP Diversions - Base Release - EVAP - Remaining Storage

Remaining Storage = Maximum Content (Elev 6082) - End of March Content(Set to zero if computed value goes negative)
1

5

14

4

13

12

10

9

11

8

3

2

7

6
Navajo Reservoir Daily Releases and End-Of-Month WS Eleva

MidJan Minimum Probable Forecast

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,500

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep O

2008

Release & Streamflow (cfs)

Total Navajo Release Min Allowable Release Std #1 Fish Release Hy
Navajo Reservoir Daily Releases and End-Of-Month WS 

the MidJan Maximum Probable Forecas

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,500

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep O

2008

Release (cfs)

Total Navajo Release Min Allowable Release Std #4 Fish Release Hy
Most Probable Inf

Forecast

Alternative Release Opti
Navajo Reservoir Daily Releases and End-Of-Month WS Eleva

Jan Most Probable Forecast

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,500

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep O

2008

Release & Streamflow (cfs)

Total Navajo Release Min Allowable Release Std #4 Fish Release Hy

Option #1: Navajo Reservoir Daily Releases and End

Based on the Mid January Most Probable F
Navajo Reservoir Daily Releases and End-Of-Month WS Eleva

Feb Most Probable Forecast

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,500

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep O

2008

Release & Streamflow (cfs)

Total Navajo Release Min Allowable Release Std #4 Fish Release Hy

Option #2: Navajo Reservoir Daily Release and En

based on the Mid January Inflow For
Navajo Reservoir Daily Releases and End-Of-Month WS Eleva

MidJan Most Probable Forecast

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,500

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep O

2008

Release & Streamflow (cfs)

Total Navajo Release Min Allowable Release Std #4 Fish Release Hy

Option #3: Navajo Reservoir Daily Release and End-Of-Mbased on the Mid January Inflow Forecast
Navajo Reservoir Most, Maximum and Min

Releases based on the January Mid M

0

50,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000

*OCT07

*NOV07

*DEC07

JAN08

FEB08

MAR08

APR08

MAY08

Releases (af)

30-Yr Avg Min Prob Most Pro

Option #3
Navajo Reservoir Most, Maximum and Mi

Content (af) based on the January Mid M

600,000800,000

1,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,0001,800,000

*OCT07

*NOV07

*DEC07

JAN08

FEB08

MAR08

APR08

MAY08

Content (af)

30-Yr Avg Min Prob Max Prob Max 

O
Navajo Reservoir Most, Maximum and Minimu

EOM Water Surface Elevation (feet) based on the Januar

5,9855,9956,0056,0156,0256,0356,0456,0556,0656,0756,0856,095

*OCT07 *NOV07 *DEC07 JAN08 FEB08 MAR08 APR08 MAY08 JUN08 

EOM WS Elevation (feet)

30-Yr Avg Min Prob Most Prob Max Prob 

Option #3
Navajo Reservoir - 2008 WY - Annual Operating P

Most Probable Inflow - January 15th Forecast

-350,000-300,000-250,000-200,000-150,000-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000

*OCT07 *NOV07 *DEC07 JAN08 FEB08 MAR08 APR08 MAY08 JUN08 JU

Releases (Negative af) & Inflow (af)

Inflow (af) Release (af) NIIP Div (af) Content (af) Max 

Option #3 Release
Navajo Reservoir - 2008 WY - Annual Operating Plan 

Miminum Probable Inflow - January 15th Forecast

-300,000-250,000-200,000-150,000-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000

*OCT07 *NOV07 *DEC07 JAN08 FEB08 MAR08 APR08 MAY08 JUN08 JUL

Releases (Negative af) & Inflow (af)

Inflow (af) Release (af) NIIP Div Content (af) M
Navajo Reservoir - 2008 WY - Annual Operatin

Maximum Probable Inflow - January 15th For

-400,000-350,000-300,000-250,000-200,000-150,000-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000500,000550,000

*OCT07 *NOV07 *DEC07 JAN08 FEB08 MAR08 APR08 MAY08 JUN08 JUL0

Releases (Negative af) & Inflow (af)

Inflow (af) Release (af) NIIP Div (af) Content (af) Max 
April-July Mod Unreg Forecast from 

vs 

Realized Mod Unreg Inflo

0

200,000400,000600,000800,000

1,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,0001,800,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 20

Years

April-July Mod Unreg

Inflow

Minimum Probable Most Probable MaxSeries4 Mod Unreg Inflow 30-Y
2008 

Recommendation

for San Juan Rive

Operation and Adminis
Navajo Dam Mainten

Activities
Fish & Wildlife Servi

San Juan RIP Upda
Reports from other Ag
Questions from Aud
How You Can 

Access Informatio

USBR 

www.usbr.gov/uc 

USGS 

http://water.usgs.gov/n
Summary

• Forecasts are Very Preliminary• Likely Minimum Release:

– 750 cfs Oct 2006 - May 2008– 500 cfs Jun 2008 – September 2

• Target Baseflow will be 500 -10• A Modified Maximum Fish Spri

is expected. (21+ Days at 5,00

• Next Operations Meeting: April 
Thanks for Comin