BUREAU OF RECLAMATION

NAVAJO RESERVOIR COORDINATION MEETING

April 19th, 2022

SUMMARY

Dear Interested Party:

Enclosed is a summary of our April 19th, 2022 meeting to coordinate Bureau of Reclamation’s 

(Reclamation) operation of the Navajo Unit. The meeting was held virtually over Microsoft 

Teams video conferencing.

Summary points of the meeting:

• Drought conditions have improved in the Four Corners since this time last year but 

drought still persists and is still D1 and D2 in the mountain regions and at a D3 level in 

the downstream parts of the basin. There is a significant soil moisture deficit that will 

impact runoff.

• SW Colorado SWE peaked at 88% of Median

• April-July runoff projections range from 315 kaf (50% avg) to 590 kaf (94% avg) with a 

median projection of 390 kaf (62% avg).

• No planned SJRIP-prescribed Spring Peak Release in WY 2022. Summer releases will 

likely range from 600 cfs to 1,000 cfs.

• No projected shortage to contracted water users in WY 2022

• Projected End of Water Year Storage ranges from 740 kaf live/112 kaf active (6005 ft, 

45% full) to 1,060 kaf live/434 kaf active (6040 ft, 64% full) with a median projection of 

880 kaf live/254 active (6022 ft, 53% full)

Copies of the material presented, and past meeting notes are available online at:

http://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/nvd.html

If you have any suggestions on improving the operation meetings or the summaries of the 

meetings, please let us know. 

Next meeting date: Tuesday, August 23rd at 1:00 PM. This meeting is currently planned to 

be held in-person at the Farmington Civic Center, in Farmington, NM with a video and/or 

phone option for those who would like to attend virtually. This is subject to change based 

on the situation at the time. Please contact sbehery@usbr.gov for questions or updates. A 

notice will be sent out in July with meeting updates and details.
NAVAJO UNIT OPERATIONS MEETING

April 19th, 2022

Participation: This meeting was held virtually via Microsoft Teams. The attendance list is 

attached. 

Purpose of Meeting: The purpose of these meetings, held annually in January, April, and 

August, is to gather input for determining upcoming operations for Navajo Reservoir. This input 

is used in Reclamation’s development of an overall 24-month study for operation of Reclamation 

projects in the Upper Colorado River Basin, which includes plans for Glen Canyon, Flaming 

Gorge, Aspinall Unit and Navajo. Input from individuals, organizations, and agencies, along 

with other factors such as weather, water rights, endangered species requirements, flood control, 

hydro power, recreation, fish and wildlife management, and reservoir levels, will be considered 

in the development of these reservoir operation plans. In addition, the meetings are used to 

coordinate activities and exchange information among agencies, water users, and other interested 

parties concerning the San Juan River and Navajo Reservoir.

Operations in WY 2022 so far and Current Conditions in the Basin

Susan Behery, Reclamation

Throughout most of the fall and winter, Navajo released more than the inflow, losing 

approximately six feet of elevation from October to March. As runoff has increased over the last 

several weeks, reservoir storage has rebounded by more than two feet.

The release over most of the winter ranged between 300 cfs and 400 cfs, and was the minimum 

required to maintain the minimum target baseflow (TBF) in the critical habitat reach. The TBF 

goal range is between 500 cfs and 1,000 cfs on average along the USGS gages from Farmington, 

NM to Bluff, UT. 

Reservoir elevation is approximately 13 feet lower today than it was this time last year. The 

reservoir is at approximately the 80th exceedance percentile of 1991-2020 elevations (in 80% of 

previous years at this time of year, the reservoir has been higher).

Around the basin, reservoirs are beginning to increase in storage as runoff begins. McPhee is at

50% live storage, Lake Nighthorse is at 97% live storage, Lemon is at 38% live storage, 

Vallecito is at 45% live storage, Jackson Gulch is at 57% live storage, and Navajo is at 51% live 

storage (24% of active storage). 

Looking at the larger Upper Colorado River Basin, Blue Mesa is at 29% live storage, Flaming 

Gorge is at 78% live storage, and Lake Powell is at 24% live storage.

Weather Summary and Outlook 

Aldis Strautins, National Weather Service, Grand Junction

Water Year 2022 Temperatures and Precipitation can be divided into two stories- that of 

October-December, and another from January to April. The first part of WY 2022, October-
December, saw above average temperatures and above average precipitation, mainly from a large 

storm system at the end of December. Since January, temperatures have been slightly below 

average, and precipitation totals have been much below average.

Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) peaked at 88% of median for the Southwest Colorado mountains. 

The few snow events in late December, late February, and a little bit in March are largely 

responsible for most of the accumulated SWE. 

The drought monitor is showing an improvement over this time last year. In April of 2021, most 

of the Four Corners was in a D4 Exceptional Drought. In 2022, that has been reduced to a D3 in 

the lower San Juan, or even D1-D2 in the upper San Juan.

Currently we are in a La Nina event. The CPC/IRI Early-Month Consensus ENSO Forecast 

probabilities show a possibility moving towards a Neutral condition by late summer.

CPC is showing likelihoods of below average precipitation and above average temperatures 

throughout the rest of the spring and into summer. A summer monsoonal signature is showing up 

in the forecast in Arizona and New Mexico.

Runoff Outlook

Ashley Nielson, Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, Salt Lake City

The last monsoon season was much wetter than in recent years, especially across southern 

Arizona and central Utah. In the San Juan Basin, the summer-fall 2021 monsoon season was near 

to slightly below normal. While the rains certainly helped the soil moisture deficit, they were not 

enough to overcome the multiple years of insufficient hydrology. This deficit is expected to have 

impacts to runoff.

The CBRFC Model Snow Water Equivalent is showing below normal conditions at all 

elevations. Areas above Navajo Reservoir have slightly better conditions than the rest of the 

basin. Significant melt has occurred below 11,000 ft, much earlier than normal. Snow 

accumulation is still possible above 11,000 ft as the normal peak SWE occurs in early May. 

However, weather forecasts do not show favorable conditions for much snow accumulation in 

the coming weeks.

Several dust events have occurred this spring. Snow contamination grids from NASA/JPL are 

made available to the CBRFC. The grids are used to calibrate the model and for daily 

operations. In the model calibration, the 2000-2020 datasets are used to fine tune snowmelt 

timing at high elevations. In the daily operations, the current datasets are used to improve model 

streamflow simulation and short-term forecasts by applying a temperature adjustment to the 

snow models.

The latest most probable April official forecast is for 390 kaf (62% of average) for April- July. 

The April 50% exceedance forecasts are very similar to the observed April-July volumes in WY 

2021. Forecast guidance has decreased by 5-10% of average since this April official forecast. 
The average error for the April official forecasts is 18%. The typical error for the May official 

forecasts is 15%. The primary sources of forecast error are future weather (precip and 

temperature, and extreme events), and model state (current conditions representative of reality). 

Extensive analyses performed annually in the fall aim to learn from and improve on these 

forecast errors.

Proposed Operations for WY 2022

The official April-July water supply forecasts for the coming spring are as follows: 

As of April 2022:

Navajo: 390 kaf (62% avg)

Vallecito: 128 kaf (72% avg)

Lemon: 32 kaf (67% avg)

Animas: 275 kaf (71% avg)

McPhee: 152 kaf (60% avg)

Powell: 4,100 kaf (64% avg)

*1991 –2020 average

So far, 46.6 kaf modified unregulated inflow has been observed coming into Navajo Reservoir, 

which is 12% of the MUI forecast.

Based on operational projections from the inflow forecasts, we expect the release at Navajo to 

remain between 300 cfs and 600 cfs throughout the spring, depending on irrigation and runoff 

timing. Summer releases will most likely range between 600 cfs and 1,000 cfs to maintain the 

downstream target baseflows during irrigation season.

No SJRIP-recommended spring peak release is currently forecast due to low storage levels and 

insufficient hydrology. The currently projected end of water year (Sept 30th, 2022) storage 

range is 740 kaf live/112 kaf active (6005 ft, 45% full) – 1,060 kaf live/434 kaf active (6040 ft, 

64% full) with a median projection of 880 kaf live/254 active (6022 ft, 53% full). No shortages 

are currently projected. 

Around the basin, inflow forecasts are similarly below-average. Forecast inflow for Lemon 

Reservoir is 58% of average. Lemon is forecast to peak at 62% full. Forecast inflow for 

Vallecito Reservoir is 90% of average. Vallecito is forecast to peak at 77% full. Forecast inflow 

for McPhee Reservoir is 61% of average. McPhee is forecast to peak at 64% full. Forecast 

inflow for the Animas River is 71% of average. Nighthorse is anticipated to require 

approximately 30 days of pumping at 64 cfs to recover a total volume of 3,779 af. 

Drought Response Operations Update

The Drought Response Operations Agreement (DROA) is a key tool we have for addressing the 

impact of drought on the Colorado River and on operations at Glen Canyon Dam, in 

collaboration with our state partners and other federal and non-federal stakeholders and tribes. 

The purpose of DROA is to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell.
Elevation 3,490 feet at Lake Powell is the lowest elevation at which we can generate power, 

which is critical to Reclamation’s operations. Glen Canyon Dam generates enough energy to 

meet the needs of 363,000 households, including large power suppliers, large and small 

municipalities, and Tribes. Revenue from the generation of this hydropower is essential for 

continued operation of Reclamation facilities and for funding environmental compliance efforts. 

Maintaining an elevation above 3,490 feet is also for operational reasons, as falling below has 

the potential to lead to cavitation, debris entrapment, and severe damage to the power facility.

The States and Reclamation determined one of the purposes of DROA would be to start 

protection at an elevation of 3,525 feet, which is 35 feet above minimum power pool elevation of 

3,490 feet. The agreement provides two tools to this end. One is to adjust timing of deliveries 

from Lake Powell to Lake Mead, and the second tool is to make supplemental deliveries from 

upper initial Colorado River Storage Project (CRSP) Units: Flaming Gorge, Blue Mesa, and 

Navajo.

As part of that effort, under that agreement, when Lake Powell hit certain elevation triggers, 

Reclamation began enhanced monitoring, modeling, and coordination with the States and began 

to develop a plan for protecting those elevations at Lake Powell.

In July 2021, rapidly declining hydrology and an imminent need to protect Lake Powell’s 

elevation prompted an emergency action under DROA. Supplemental deliveries to Lake Powell 

within the Record of Decisions (ROD) of each upper initial unit were scheduled, and in some 

cases began. An additional 181,000 acre-feet of water were scheduled to be released to Lake 

Powell by the end of December. The 181,000 acre-feet is equivalent to approximately 3-feet at 

Lake Powell. The 181,000 acre-feet is divided as follows: Flaming Gorge: 125,000 af released 

from July to October, Blue Mesa: 36,000 af released from August – October, and Navajo: 20,000 

af released from November to December. As you may already know, the Navajo release of 

20,000 af was cancelled due to poor hydrologic forecasts. Therefore, a total of 161,000 af was 

released to Powell. 

The provision that looks at changing release volume timing from Glen Canyon Dam has also 

been moving forward. A plan was put forward to adjust Glen Canyon release volumes in CY 

2022. Those adjustments began in January of this year. 350kaf will be withheld in the first 

months of the year through April, and that same volume will be released later in the year. These 

operational adjustments are consistent with the Glen Canyon Dam Long-Term Experimental and 

Management Plan (LTEMP) Record of Decision (ROD).

The Plan Framework is a static guidance document that will be used for all DROA operations

concerning authorities, hydrology, DROA applications, accounting, consultation, and 

monitoring. Attachments for each reservoir accompany the Framework and will be specific to the 

current year. Attachment E concerns Navajo Reservoir. Currently no DROA release is planned 

for Navajo Reservoir in WY 2022.

The framework documents for DROA are being finalized this week and will soon be available on 

the Reclamation website. The Upper Colorado River Commission (UCRC) will be holding a 
special session on Thursday, April 21st, to consider the plan. The final plan will be sent to the 

Secretary of Interior by the end of April for final signature.

The Upper Basin States and Reclamation have worked diligently to have a plan in place by the 

end of April of 2022. Enhanced modeling continues to take place and will assist in planning any 

additional DROA releases in the future. 

Drought Contingency Plans

https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/finaldocs.html

DROA Framework Documents

https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html
Attendance List – April 19th, 2022 Navajo Operations Meeting

Aaron Chavez San Juan Water Commission

Aldis Strautins NWS Grand Junction

Ali Effati NMISC

Amee Andreason Reclamation

Ashley Nielson CBRFC

Barry Massey Recreationalist

Carrie Padgett SWWCD

Chico Quintana FCCO

Christina Noftsker NMISC

Clay Johnston Turley Manzanares

Colleen Cunningham NMISC

Crystal Tulley-Cordova Navajo Nation Department of Water Resources

Dex Lewis Reclamation

Diane Agnew Albuqerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority (ABCWUA)

Dominique Work NMISC

Ed Warner Reclamation

Elizabeth Anderson ABCWUA

Ernie Rheume Reclamation

Evelyn Archuleta No affiliation

Fletcher Brinkerhoff USGS

George Gavrielides Southern Ute Indian Tribe

Heather Patno Reclamation

Helen Sobien NMISC

Henry Day APS

Jacob Mazzone Jicarilla Apache Nation

James Miller FWS

Jamie Shockey City of Farmington

Jeanette Joe NAPI

Joe Trungale TNC

Kathi Smith Hammond Conservancy District

Katie Kennedy TNC

Kyle Harwood No affiliation

Les Larson Hillside Irrigation District

Letisha Yazzie NMOSE

Linda Corwin Bloomfield, NM

Lionel Haskie NAPI

Lisa Yellow Eagle SUIT

Marc Miller Reclamation

Mike Greene PNM

Miles Juett NMOSE

Moncef Tihami Reclamation

Nathan Franssen FWS, SJRIP

Nathaniel Todea Reclamation
Norman Norvelle

SJWG Steering Committee/Retired NMED Environmental 

Specialist

Pamela Norris APS

Pat Page Rocking Chair Enthusiast

Paul Montoia City of Farmington

Peter Nylander SUIT

Philip Johnson Jacobs Engineering

Philip Richards APS

Reynalden Delgarito USACE

Robb Carter Navajo State Park

Robert Jordan Logos Resources LLC

Robert Kirk Navajo Nation

Robert Wormuth Turley Manzanares

Roselyn Yazzie NAPI

Sam Prda Navajo Lake Marina

Scott Branham Reclamation

Scott Durst FWS, SJRIP

Scott Miller APS

Shawn Williams NMOSE

Stacy Dodd Bloomfield Irrigation District

Steve Austin Navajo Nation EPA

Steve Wolf SWWCD

Susan Behery Reclamation

Ted Dunn Reclamation

Trevor Birt NMOSE