BUREAU OF RECLAMATION

NAVAJO RESERVOIR COORDINATION MEETING

April 20th, 2021

MEETING NOTES

Dear Interested Party:

Enclosed is a summary of our April 20th, 2021 meeting to coordinate Bureau of Reclamation’s 

(Reclamation) operation of the Navajo Unit. The meeting was held virtually over Microsoft 

Teams video conferencing.

Summary points of the meeting:

• Extreme to Exceptional drought remains entrenched over the headwaters and Four 

Corners and is predicted to remain.

• Snowpack peak was below-average for the San Juans, and runoff has begun early.

• The April-July runoff most probable forecast for Navajo is 370kaf (50% of average). 

Other basins in the San Juans have similarly low forecasts. 

• Antecedent soil moisture was record low entering this winter, which is another driver of 

below-average forecast runoff.

• Based on current conditions (snowpack and reservoirs), and the range of forecast 

possibilities provided by CBRFC, no spring peak release is planned

• Expect low releases throughout the runoff season (300-500 cfs) as minimum releases to 

meet the target baseflows will be made. Summer releases will likely be higher than 

normal, between 600 and 1,000 cfs releases will be likely unless we have a wet summer.

• Currently no shortage is in the forecast for the San Juan River Basin in water years 2021-

2022.

Copies of the material presented, and past meeting notes are available online at:

http://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/nvd.html

If you have any suggestions on improving the operation meetings or the summaries of the 

meetings, please let us know. The next meeting will be held on Tuesday, August 24th, 2021 at 

1:00 PM. This meeting will most likely be in a virtual format. A meeting notice with 

conferencing information will be sent out prior to the meeting date. 
NAVAJO UNIT OPERATIONS MEETING

April 20th, 2021

Participation: This meeting was held virtually via Microsoft Teams. The attendance list is 

attached. 

Purpose of Meeting: The purpose of these meetings, held annually in January, April, and 

August, is to gather input for determining upcoming operations for Navajo Reservoir. This input 

is used in Reclamation’s development of an overall 24-month study for operation of Reclamation 

projects in the Upper Colorado River Basin, which includes plans for Glen Canyon, Flaming 

Gorge, Aspinall Unit and Navajo. Input from individuals, organizations, and agencies, along 

with other factors such as weather, water rights, endangered species requirements, flood control, 

hydro power, recreation, fish and wildlife management, and reservoir levels, will be considered 

in the development of these reservoir operation plans. In addition, the meetings are used to 

coordinate activities and exchange information among agencies, water users, and other interested 

parties concerning the San Juan River and Navajo Reservoir.

Review of Water Year 2021 Operations to date

The release at the beginning of the water year was 750 cfs. By early mid-November, irrigation 

tapered off and the release was decreased to 300 cfs, while maintaining the downstream target 

baseflow minimum of 500 cfs, as recommended by the San Juan River Recovery Implementation 

Program (SJRIP). The release was increased to 400 cfs in January. At the time of the meeting, the 

dam is releasing 500 cfs. This release is meeting the minimum base flow targets of 500 cfs.

The SJRIP recommends a target base flow of between 500 cfs and 1,000 cfs through the critical 

habitat area. The target base flow is calculated as the weekly average of gaged flows throughout 

the critical habitat area from Farmington to Lake Powell. As a precipitation deficit has 

materialized and baseflows have continued to decline throughout the winter, the release has slowly 

been increased to maintain the downstream target baseflows. 

Navajo has been slowly losing storage over the winter. The reservoir began the water year 

(October 1st, 2021) at an elevation of 6043 ft (1.145 maf af live storage). This is 20 feet lower

than the reservoir elevation at the start of the previous water year. 

Due to the below-average runoff from last spring and the below-average precipitation through 

the fall, baseflows in the basin have been below-average. 

Water Year 2021 Current Conditions

Reservoirs in the San Juan River Basin are all at below average storage levels for this time of 

year. Navajo Reservoir is 62% full, or 37% of active storage. Other area reservoirs are as 

follows: Vallecito, 41% full; Lemon, 31% full; Nighthorse, 93% full; McPhee, 45% full, and 

Jackson, 34% full. All reservoirs have begun gaining storage.
Winter baseflows throughout the basin have been well below normal. The Animas River has 

shown the lowest flows in its 120-year record this fall and winter. Cumulative flows this water 

year are record low, indicating the poor hydrologic conditions and severe drought.

Water Year 2021 Weather

Aldis Strautins, National Weather Service, Grand Junction

Since the first of the water year, temperatures over southeastern Utah were cooler than normal

and over southwestern Colorado temperatures were warmer than normal. Precipitation has been 

well below normal over the headwaters since the beginning of the water year. 

Storms in late February and March brought some brief relief to portions of the Four Corners, but 

the first half of April has been very dry.

Extreme to Exceptional drought remains entrenched over the headwaters and Four Corners.

ENSO-neutral conditions are present and are expected to continue this spring into summer, and 

then transition to a weak La Niña next fall.

A more progressive weather pattern is indicated for the second half of January, which would 

allow more storms and increased precipitation chances.

The forecast into spring and summer show higher chances of below normal precipitation and a 

higher chance of above normal temperatures. This is contributing to the seasonal drought 

outlook for the Four Corners area, in which drought is expected to persist.

Snowpack in the basin peaked at the end of March at 96% of normal. 

Water Year 2021 Hydrologic Forecast

Ashley Nielson, Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, Salt Lake City

Soil moisture conditions are below normal and are generally in the bottom three years for the 

1981 – 2020 time period. Soil moisture conditions are similar to last year in the eastern 

headwaters but worse over the remainder of the basin. Two consecutive years of poor monsoon 

seasons have exacerbated antecedent soil moisture conditions. There has been limited 

groundwater recharge since 2019 runoff. A portion of the snowmelt will be absorbed into the dry 

soils, and the forecasts are accounting for this loss.

Snowpack in the San Juan Basin is much below normal. Snow did not reach the normal peak 

snow water equivalent (SWE) and significant early melt has occurred. It is important to note that 

SWE does not have a one-to-one relationship with runoff. For example, the years 1988, 2003, 

and 2013 have similar snowpack accumulation profiles, but vastly different total runoff volumes.

Spring weather plays a role in the final outcome.

Current Most Probable inflow forecasts (as of April 15th) for the April-July runoff season are as 

follows:
Navajo: 370 kaf (50% avg)

Vallecito: 92 kaf (47% avg)

Lemon: 22 kaf (40% avg)

Animas: 185 kaf (45% avg)

McPhee: 95 kaf (32% avg)

Powell: 2,700 kaf (38% avg)

Early runoff is also being exacerbated by considerable dust conditions. Jeff Derry of the Center 

for Snow and Avalanche Studies gave an update on his latest Dust on Snow tour, where dust was 

notably present across all high elevations in the state.

Water Year 2021 Proposed Operations

Based on current storage levels and the latest forecast from the CBRFC, an SJRIP-prescribed 

spring peak release of at least 21 days at 5,000 cfs is not planned.

Based on latest modeling, the most probable forecast peak pool elevation will be near 6043 ft. 

The most probable end of water year (September 30th) pool elevation will be near 6035 ft. 

As there is no spring peak release planned, and the forecast for Animas runoff is also very low, 

flows at Four Corners this spring are unlikely to meet the SJRIP recommended targets this year.

Currently modeling does not show a shortage for WY 2021.

Releases through the spring will likely range from 300 cfs to 600 cfs, and will continue to be as 

low as possible to conserve water while meeting the downstream flow targets. This summer, 

releases will likely range between 600 cfs and 1,000 cfs to meet the downstream targets. 

Agency/Organization Reports

NAPI – Alfalfa and wheat are beginning, planting has begun.

 

SJRIP (FWS)- The Annual Meeting is scheduled for May 5th and will be in a virtual format. For 

meeting information, please send an email to james_sykes@fws.gov

Next Coordination Meeting - The next meeting will be held on Tuesday, August 24th, 2021 at 

1:00 PM. The meeting will most likely be in a virtual format. A meeting notice with 

conferencing details will be sent out prior to the meeting date.

Attendance List – April 20, 2021 Navajo Operations Meeting

Aldis Strautins NOAA - NWS - Grand Junction

Ali Effati NMISC

Allen Adkins

Alyssa Richmond SJWG

Ashley Nielson NOAA - CBRFC - Salt Lake City

Brandt Hart BLM

Carrie Padgett Southwestern Water Conservation District

Chad Niehaus BLM

Christina Noftsker NMISC

Clay Johnston Turley Manzanarnes

Colleen Cunningham NMISC

Dex Lewis Reclamation

Dominique Work NMISC

Duane Joe NAPI

Ed Warner Reclamation WCAO

Erik Knight Reclamation WCAO

Fletcher Brinkerhoff USGS - NMWSC

Gary Horner

Gordon Miller San Juan Water Commission

James Miller

Jamie Shockey City of Farmington

Jeanette Joe NAPI

Jeff Derry Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies

Jeffrey Morris

Kathi Smith Hammond Conservancy District

Les Larson Hillside Irrigation District

Marc Miller Reclamation WCAO

Melanie McCabe BLM Canyon Country District, Moab

Michele Truby Tillen San Juan County OEM

Mike Greene PNM

Nathan Franssen San Juan Recovery Program, Fish and Wildlife Service

Nathaniel Todea Reclamation UCRB Power Office

Pamela Norris APS Four Corners Power Plant

Paul Montoia City of Farmington

Roselyn Yazzie NAPI

Ryan Christianson Reclamation WCAO

Scott Branham Reclamation - Navajo Dam

Scott Durst San Juan Recovery Program, Fish and Wildlife Service

Scott Miller Arizona Public Service, Co
Shannon Hatch Reclamation WCAO

Stacy Dodd Bloomfield Irrigation District

Ted Dunn Reclamation WCAO

Tom Fowlds Reclamation WCAO

Tyrell Lee NAPI