BUREAU OF RECLAMATION

NAVAJO RESERVOIR COORDINATION MEETING

August 24th, 2021

SUMMARY

Dear Interested Party:

Enclosed is a summary of our August 24th, 2021 meeting to coordinate Bureau of Reclamation’s 

(Reclamation) operation of the Navajo Unit. The meeting was held virtually over Microsoft 

Teams video conferencing.

Summary points of the meeting:

• WY 2021 April-July runoff was poor throughout the San Juan River Basin. Navajo 

Modified Unregulated Inflow totaled 378 kaf which was 51% of average.

• There was no spring peak release. Releases varied from 300 –900 cfs throughout WY 

2021.

• Drought conditions have improved in the Four Corners due to rains but drought still 

persists and is still at its maximum D4 level in many places. Soil moisture has also 

improved due to rains.

• In November and December of 2021, releases are scheduled to increase in response to a 

continual declining dry hydrologic condition for the Colorado River system. This drought 

operation is implemented under the Upper Basin Drought Response Operations 

Agreement. The maximum flexibility within the Record of Decision will be used to 

release an additional 20,000 af on top of base releases. Notification of releases will occur 

prior to the scheduled release change.

• Based on current storage and streamflows and the statistical range of likely hydrologies

for WY 2022, there is a 25% chance for a spring peak release. The median runoff forecast 

is for 83% of average.

• The statistical “average” range will soon be migrated from 1981 –2010 to the 1991 –

2020. 

Copies of the material presented, and past meeting notes are available online at:

http://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/nvd.html

If you have any suggestions on improving the operation meetings or the summaries of the 

meetings, please let us know. The next meeting will be held on Tuesday, January 18th at 1:00

PM. This meeting is currently set to be in a virtual format. A meeting notice with 

conferencing information will be sent out prior to the meeting date. 
NAVAJO UNIT OPERATIONS MEETING

August 24th, 2021

Participation: This meeting was held virtually via Microsoft Teams. The attendance list is 

attached. 

Purpose of Meeting: The purpose of these meetings, held annually in January, April, and 

August, is to gather input for determining upcoming operations for Navajo Reservoir. This input 

is used in Reclamation’s development of an overall 24-month study for operation of Reclamation 

projects in the Upper Colorado River Basin, which includes plans for Glen Canyon, Flaming 

Gorge, Aspinall Unit and Navajo. Input from individuals, organizations, and agencies, along 

with other factors such as weather, water rights, endangered species requirements, flood control, 

hydro power, recreation, fish and wildlife management, and reservoir levels, will be considered 

in the development of these reservoir operation plans. In addition, the meetings are used to 

coordinate activities and exchange information among agencies, water users, and other interested 

parties concerning the San Juan River and Navajo Reservoir.

Drought Response Operations 

Katrina Grantz, Assistant Regional Director for the Upper Colorado Basin Region, Reclamation, 

Salt Lake City

The Drought Response Operations Agreement (DROA) is a key tool we have for addressing the 

impact of drought on the Colorado River and on operations at Glen Canyon Dam, in 

collaboration with our state partners and other federal and non-federal stakeholders and tribes. 

The purpose of DROA is to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell.

Elevation 3,490 feet at Lake Powell is the lowest elevation at which we can generate power, 

which is critical to Reclamation’s operations. Glen Canyon Dam generates enough energy to 

meet the needs of 363,000 households, including large power suppliers, large and small 

municipalities, and Tribes. Revenue from the generation of this hydropower is essential for 

continued operation of Reclamation facilities and for funding environmental compliance efforts. 

Maintaining an elevation above 3,490 feet is also for operational reasons, as falling below has 

the potential to lead to cavitation, debris entrapment, and severe damage to the power facility.

The States and Reclamation determined one of the purposes of DROA would be to start 

protection at an elevation of 3,525 feet, which is 35 feet above minimum power pool elevation of 

3,490 feet. The agreement provides two tools to this end. One is to adjust timing of deliveries 

from Lake Powell to Lake Mead, and the second tool is to make supplemental deliveries from 

upper initial CRSP Units: Flaming Gorge, Blue Mesa, and Navajo.

As part of that effort, under that agreement, when Lake Powell hit certain elevation triggers, 

Reclamation began enhanced monitoring, modeling, and coordination with the States and began 

to develop a plan for protecting those elevations at Lake Powell.

In July 2021, rapidly declining hydrology and an imminent need to protect Lake Powell’s 

elevation prompted an emergency action under DROA. Supplemental deliveries to Lake Powell 
within the Record of Decisions (ROD) of each upper initial unit were scheduled, and in some 

cases began. An additional 181,000 acre-feet of water were scheduled to be released to Lake 

Powell by the end of December. The 181,000 acre-feet is equivalent to approximately 3-feet at 

Lake Powell. The 181,000 acre-feet is divided as follows: Flaming Gorge: 125,000 af released 

from July to October, Blue Mesa: 36,000 af released from August – October, and Navajo: 20,000 

af released from November to December.

In the meantime, the Upper Basin States and Reclamation are committed to completing our 

planning efforts and are striving to have a plan in place by April of 2022. Enhanced modeling 

continues to take place and will assist in planning any additional DROA releases in the future. 

For more information on DROA, please see the links below.

Drought Contingency Plans

https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/finaldocs.html

Attachment A1- Agreement for Drought Response Operations at the Initial Units of the Colorado 

River Storage Project Act

https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/docs/final/Attachment-A1-Drought-Response%20OperationsAgreement-Final.pdf

News Release regarding DROA

https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/3917

Weather Summary and Outlook 

Aldis Strautins, National Weather Service, Grand Junction

Water year 2021 is another consecutive year of below average precipitation. Water Year 2020 

was also very below-average in terms of precipitation, with an average of 50-70% of normal 

precipitation. The end of 2020 was particularly dry, with the Four Corners receiving only 25 –

50% of normal precipitation in most areas.

Temperatures in WY 2021 have been on average normal to just below normal for the year. 

Precipitation has been on average 50-80 percent of normal. Snowpack peaked at 85% of average 

in the basin.

CPC outlooks presented in April did a good job of predicting monsoonal precipitation events that 

would occur in July and August of this year. Those forecasts verified. While temperatures were 

above average, July precipitation was overall 125 to 200 percent of average in the basin for the 

month. Similarly August has been above average in terms of temperature, and while 

precipitation events have occurred, they were further to the east than the previous month.

Despite the rains, the entirety of the Four Corners remain in a drought. While conditions have 

improved since April, higher elevations remain in D0 or D1, while lower elevations are in D2 
through D4, with D4 being the most severe classification of drought. Drought conditions overall 

are much worse on the western slope than they were at this time in 2020.

The ENSO outlook is for a probability of La Nina beginning this fall. Currently ENSO status is 

in a neutral condition.

The 7-day precipitation outlook (accumulation period from Aug 24-31) shows a possibility for 

up to a half inch of precipitation in the high country. The CPC outlook for August shows above 

average precipitation, much of which we have already seen in the earlier part of the month. 

Unfortunately, the CPC outlook is showing a likelihood of below-average precipitation and 

above average temperatures through December.

Streamflow Summary and Outlook

Ashley Nielson, Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, Salt Lake City

Most of the snowpack accumulation season in WY 2021 was well below-average on a monthly 

basis. October through March had a mean precipitation average of 85% of average above 

Navajo. May through July finally offered some reprieve with above average precipitation, but 

when combined with the earlier season, the total water year precipitation was still well below 

normal, and so far has totaled 85% as of the end of July. 

Runoff began early in the San Juan River Basin, and almost 5 inches of SWE was lost in the 

Animas the first two weeks of April. Snow peaked below normal and early, and runoff was early 

throughout the basin. Additional snow accumulation at high elevations in late May helped 

improve water supply conditions, increased runoff efficiency, and lessened the impact of the dry 

antecedent soil moisture conditions.

Final April – July runoff came in at 51% of average for Navajo. The official forecast started at 

450 kaf in January and decreased slightly monthly as the season unfolded. A low forecast in 

May was bolstered by weather events, and by June the forecast had come up closer to the final 

volume. The observed April-July volumes fell within the forecasted range of possibilities, 

suggesting the model was initialized well with good values for soil moisture.

Review of Water Year 2021 Operations to date

At the beginning of WY 2021, the reservoir elevation was at 6043 ft (1,147kaf of live storage). 

As of 8/23, the reservoir is at 6032 ft (1,030 kaf live storage. This is a difference of -117 kaf 

since the beginning of the water year. Inflows into the reservoir were lower than the release 

throughout much of the winter, causing a steady decrease in storage until runoff season began. 

The release has varied throughout the water year from 300 cfs to 900 cfs in order to maintain the 

target baseflow range of 500 – 1000 cfs. We typically target the minimum of that range to save 

water throughout the year. The release increases as hydrologic inputs decrease and irrigation 

demand is high, to continue to meet the minimum target baseflow.
At the start of the water year, the reservoir was in the lowest 70th percentile of historical levels, 

and has since dropped into the 90th percentile. The reservoir peaked at 6041.54 ft in June, and 

has been decreasing throughout the summer.

The Animas River cumulative flows throughout the winter were the lowest on record. By runoff 

the cumulative flows had surpassed the record low set in 2002.

The flow targets for the San Juan went unfulfilled in 2021, with only three days above 2,500 cfs 

at Four Corners from March through July. 

Late July and August did bring monsoonal precipitation with the following notable flow peaks: 

USGS Bloomfield 4,000 cfs; USGS Farmington 5,270 cfs; USGS Bluff 7,000 cfs.

Current storage levels across the basin are below average. Navajo is 61% full, Vallecito is 40% 

full, Lemon is 31% full, McPhee is 44% full, and Jackson is 39% full. Lake Nighthorse pumped 

to fill this season and is 99% full.

Proposed Operations for Remainder of WY 2021 and WY 2022

Based on current forecasted streamflows for the remainder of the water year, we expect to 

release between 300 cfs and 800 cfs through the end of September. Heavy rains could aid in the 

decrease of the release, but warm dry weather will likely result in a release on the higher end of 

that range from the dam. The reservoir elevation at the end of this water year is expected to be 

between 6028 and 6031 ft depending on the release and rainfall.

In November and December of 2021, releases are scheduled to increase in response to a 

continual declining dry hydrologic condition for the Colorado River system. This drought 

operation is implemented under the Upper Basin Drought Response Operations Agreement. The 

maximum flexibility within the Record of Decision will be used to release an additional 20,000 

af on top of base releases. Approximately 10,000 af is planned for release in November, and 

10,000 af is planned for release in December. Currently, that release is planned as an increase of 

1,000 cfs over the base release, for a total of between 1200 and 1400 cfs, depending on the base 

release at the time, for 10 days (November 25 - December 05). This plan may be modified as 

hydrologic conditions change. Notification of releases will occur prior to the scheduled release 

change. It is important to note that water released for DROA is CRSP system water, and is not 

contracted water. A current plan for the release is shown below. 
Based on current streamflow conditions, storage levels, and statistical outlooks based on 35 years 

of historical hydrology, runoff projections for WY 2022’s April-July runoff season range from 

300 kaf (42% of average) to 1,130 kaf (153% of average with a median projection of 615kaf 

(83% of average). There is a 25% chance of a spring peak release. There is also a 3% chance of 

falling below minimum active storage levels (5990 ft). The most probable end of water year 

elevation at Navajo for WY2022 is 6048 ft. The range is wide, with a low of 6008 ft and a high 

of 6055 ft. This range captures 80% of the uncertainty at this point in time. 

Statistical averages used in reporting are due to be updated in the near future. The 30-year 

average used across agencies progresses every decade. Currently we use 1981 – 2010 time 

period, and this will be updated to 1991 – 2020. This means that the Navajo April- July 

Modified Unregulated Inflow will change as follows: 1981-2010: 737 -> 1991-2020: 628 kaf, a 

difference of -109 kaf. This will result in percent-averages that are higher. For instance, WY 

2021’s April – July inflow of 378 kaf (51% of 1981 -2010) will be 60% of average for the 1991 

– 2020 time period.

Maintenance Activities

The hydroelectric power plant is undergoing repairs on one unit. For the time being, only one 

unit will be running. Any flows beyond the capacity of that unit will be made up with the 
Auxiliary 4x4 from the center of the spillway. A minimum release of 300 cfs must be 

maintained at the 4x4 while it is in use. Every attempt will be made to make release adjustments 

through the power plant to limit sediment input into the river. The second unit at the power plant 

is expected to be down for 3-6 weeks while parts are ordered and repairs are made.

SJRIP Update

The Recovery Program has conducted its monitoring, management, and research activities as 

planned in 2021. Although meetings are still being held virtually, there have been no COVIDrelated restrictions for work on the San Juan River. The Recovery Program's partners continue 

discussions and negotiations of the scope and funding sources for the Program post-2023. 

Funding and the cooperative agreement for the San Juan River Basin Recovery Implementation 

Program (and Upper Colorado River Endangered Fish Recovery Program) expire in 2023. 

Finally related to the monsoon storms, during a high flow event in late July several Recovery 

Program researchers observed a substantial fish kill in the San Juan River downstream of the 

Four Corners Bridge. The cause of the fish kill is unknown and the researchers were conducting 

other work so were not prepared to preserve fish for further analysis.

Summary

• WY 2021 April-July runoff was poor throughout the San Juan River Basin. Navajo 

Modified Unregulated Inflow totaled 378 kaf which was 51% of average.

• There was no spring peak release. Releases varied from 300 – 900 cfs throughout WY 

2021.

• Drought conditions have improved in the Four Corners due to rains but drought still 

persists and is still at its maximum D4 level in many places. Soil moisture has also 

improved due to rains.

• In November and December of 2021, releases are scheduled to increase in response to a 

continual declining dry hydrologic condition for the Colorado River system. This 

drought operation is implemented under the Upper Basin Drought Response Operations 

Agreement. The maximum flexibility within the Record of Decision will be used to 

release an additional 20,000 af on top of base releases. Notification of releases will occur 

prior to the scheduled release change.

• Based on current storage and streamflows and the statistical range of likely hydrologies 

for WY 2022, there is a 25% chance for a spring peak release. The median runoff forecast 

is for 83% of average.

• The statistical “average” range will soon be migrated from 1981 – 2010 to the 1991 –

2020. 

 

Next Coordination Meeting - The next meeting will be held on Tuesday, January 18th, 2022

at 1:00 PM. The meeting will be in a virtual format. A meeting notice with conferencing 

details will be sent out prior to the meeting date.

Attendance List – August 24, 2021 Navajo Operations Meeting

Aaron Chavez San Juan Water Commission

Aldis Strautins National Weather Service (NWS)

Ali Rye San Juan County Office of Emergency Management

Amee Andreason Reclamation

Ashley Nielson Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC)

Barry Massey

Brandt Hart BLM River Ranger, Lower San Juan, Bluff, Utah

Buck Skillen Five Rivers Trout Unlimited

Carrie Padgett Southwestern Water Conservation District

Christopher Cutler Reclamation

Christopher D. Watt Reclamation

Clay Cady Arizona Public Service (APS)

Clay Johnston Turley 

Colleen Cunninghamm New Mexico Interstate Stream Commission (NMISC)

Dominique Work NMISC

Ed Warner Reclamation

Elizabeth Anderson

Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority 

(ABCWUA)

Erik Knight Reclamation

Fletcher Brinkerhoff USGS

Frederic L. Shean ABCWUA

Gary Horner Citizen

Gordon Miller San Juan Water Commission

Heather Patno Reclamation

James (Scott) Miller APS

Jamie Shockey City of Farmington Electric Utility

Jeanette Joe NAPI O&M

Jennifer Erickson Reclamation

Kathi Smith Hammond Conservancy District

Katrina Grantz Reclamation

Letisha Yazzie New Mexico Office of the State Engineer (NMOSE)

Linda Corwin Bloomfield, NM

Mark P. Kelly ABCWUA

Michele Truby-Tillen San Juan County (NM) Community Development

Mike Mestas San Juan County (NM) office of Emergency Management

Patrick Page Reclamation

Paul Harms NMISC

Phillip Richards APS

Ryan Christianson Reclamation

Ryan Royer Reclamation

Ryan Unterreiner Colorado Parks and Wildlife

Scott Branham Reclamation

Scott Durst FWS, San Juan River Recovery Implementation Program (SJRIP)
Stacy Dodd Bloomfield Irrigation District (BID)

Susan Behery Reclamation

Thomas Hook Student at Colorado Mesa

Jeff Derry Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies (CSAS)

Christina Noftsker NMISC

Nathaniel Todea Reclamation

Paul Davidson Reclamation

Robb Carter Navajo State Park

Ben Shannon City of Farmington

Nathan Franssen FWS, SJRIP

Jim Hook Landowner/Motel owner Bluff, UT

Duane Joe Navajo Agricultural Products Inc (NAPI) O&M

Nabil Shafike US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)

Paul Montoia City of Farmington

Tyrell Lee Bureau of Land Management (BLM)

Henry Day APS

Marc Miller Reclamation