History of the Long History of the Long

-t

Experimental Pla

Experimental Pla

Jan 2002; GCMRC delivers 16 Jan 2002; GCMRC delivers 16

-yr factoria

yr factoria

AMWG; two years accepted AMWG; two years acceptedMay 2004 GCMRC delivers revised long May 2004 GCMRC delivers revised long

-

design to TWG; LTEP TWG ad hoc forme

design to TWG; LTEP TWG ad hoc forme

LTEP ad hoc meets 6 LTEP ad hoc meets 6

-9/04

Hybrid design developed; TWG (9/04) an

Hybrid design developed; TWG (9/04) an

(10/04) adopt design with management a

(10/04) adopt design with management a

treatment definitions treatment definitionsGCMRC takes lead for LTEP developme

GCMRC takes lead for LTEP developme

Knowledge assessment conducted (5/05 

Knowledge assessment conducted (5/05 

LTEP proposals analyzed by GCMRC; di

LTEP proposals analyzed by GCMRC; d

SPG 2/06 SPG 2/06
The Hybrid Desig

The Hybrid Desig

Contains management actions and

Contains management actions and

treatments treatmentsDetermination of management actio

Determination of management actio

treatments arises out of knowledge 

treatments arises out of knowledge 

workshop and interpretation of resu

workshop and interpretation of resu

Management actions are fixed for d

Management actions are fixed for d

experiment experimentTreatments implemented in blocked

Treatments implemented in blocked

titration or reverse titration design titration or reverse titration design
I. Define Management A

I. Define Management A

and Treatments and Treatments

Both are purposeful manipulations o

Both are purposeful manipulations o

The former category is considered 

The former category is considered 

known, positive effects and therefo

known, positive effects and therefo

implemented and maintained; the la

implemented and maintained; the la

has unknown effects and is purpos

has unknown effects and is purpos

on and off, or implemented in differ

on and off, or implemented in differ

determine those effects. (TWG 9/04 

determine those effects. (TWG 9/04 

10/04)
Adaptive Management Co

Adaptive Management Co

High Uncertainty

ExperimentsMonitoring

Management ActionsMonitoring

Learning By Doing
Potential Outcomes of Man

Potential Outcomes of Man

Action and Treatment Com

Action and Treatment Com

All actions are management ac

All actions are management ac

longer an experimental design longer an experimental designAll actions are treatments; trea

All actions are treatments; trea

applied in block or titration des

applied in block or titration des

Some actions are managemen

Some actions are managemen

and some are treatments; the h

and some are treatments; the h

design with treatments in block 

design with treatments in block 

All experimental designs are de

All experimental designs are de

prior to the onset of the experim

prior to the onset of the experim
Potential Designs Potential Designs

All Management Actio

All Management Actio

MA1 MA2 MA

X

XXXX

X

P3

X

X

X

P1

X

P2

X

P4

X
Potential Design Potential Design

All Treatment Factoria

All Treatment Factoria

T1 

P1

X

P3

X

P4

X

P5

P6

X

P2
Potential Design Potential Design

All Treatment Forward Tit

All Treatment Forward Tit

T1 T2 T3

XX

X

P3

X

XX

P1

X

P2

X

P4

X
Potential Design Potential Design

All Treatment Reverse Tit

All Treatment Reverse Tit

T1 T2 T3

X

X

X

X

P3

X

X

P1

X

P2

X

P4

X
Potential Hybrid Des

Potential Hybrid Des

MA1 T1 T2

X

XX

P4

X

X

P5

X

XX

XX

P1

X

P2

X

P3

X

P6

X

MA1 

Reve

Reve

Forw

Forw

P1

X

P1

X

P2

X

P2

X

P3

X

P3

X

Management Action/Factorial Manageme
Criteria for Assessment of 

Criteria for Assessment of 

Effects” and “Unknown E

Effects” and “Unknown E

Quality of Information (expert opinion, ag

Quality of Information (expert opinion, ag

peer

-reviewed journal; need to establish 

reviewed journal; need to establish 

acceptance for sources of information) acceptance for sources of information)Quantity of information (has experiment b

Quantity of information (has experiment b

than once; same results if so?) than once; same results if so?)Level of risk to resource; if risk is high, co

Level of risk to resource; if risk is high, co

carefully; opportunity cost carefully; opportunity costCost of implementing action (short Cost of implementing action (short

-term a

term a

relate to risk) relate to risk)Evidence exists for Grand Canyon vs. ev

Evidence exists for Grand Canyon vs. ev

for other comparable systems for other comparable systemsHas a knowledge assessment been done 

Has a knowledge assessment been done 

interaction (cause and effect relationship

interaction (cause and effect relationship
Today’s Assignme

Today’s Assignme

Use knowledge assessment fin

Use knowledge assessment fin

proposals for LTEP to identify proposals for LTEP to identify management actions and treat

management actions and treat

Identify the specific actions in t

Identify the specific actions in t

proposals proposalsIdentify the design for each of t

Identify the design for each of t

proposals proposalsInclude other information as ap

Include other information as ap
Process Process

Obtain agreement on proposed 

Obtain agreement on proposed 

Obtain agreement on proposed 

Obtain agreement on proposed 

Assign management action or 

Assign management action or 

proposed actions (pre proposed actions (pre-survey) survey)Review summary of knowledge Review summary of knowledge assessment findings and discu

assessment findings and discu

Assign management action or 

Assign management action or 

proposed actions (post proposed actions (post-survey) survey)
Proposed Actions

Proposed Actions

Action General General 

Agreement Agreement

Co

Co

Ag

Ag

Alternative Alternative Fluctuations Fluctuations

1, 2, 3 1, 2, 3 No

Stable Flows Stable Flows 2, 4 No

BHBF All No

Ramping Rate Ramping Rate 1, 2, 3 1, 2, 3 No

Warmwater Warmwater Non

-

native Fish Control native Fish Control

All All?

All?

trea

trea

ide

ide

Selective Withdrawal Selective Withdrawal All All?

All?

sce

sce
Proposed Actions

Proposed Actions

Action General General 

Agreement Agreement

Co

Co

Ag

Ag

HBC Translocation HBC Translocation All 1, 2

HBC Refuge HBC Refuge All 1, 2

1, 2

HBC Augmentation HBC Augmentation (Stocking?) (Stocking?)

1, 2, 4 1, 2, 4 1, 2

1, 2

Coldwater Non Coldwater Non

-native 

Fish Control Fish Control

All All?

Mini

-experiments experiments All 1, 2

1, 2

lab

Experimental Design Experimental Design 1, 2, 4 (titration to 1, 2, 4 (titration to 

factorial) factorial)

No