BUREAU OF RECLAMATION 

NAVAJO RESERVOIR COORDINATION MEETING 

August 23rd, 2022 

SUMMARY 

Dear Interested Party: 

Enclosed is a summary of our August 23rd, 2022 meeting to coordinate Bureau of Reclamation’s 

(Reclamation) operation of the Navajo Unit. The meeting was held simultaneously in-person at 

the Farmington Civic Center, and via WebEx Video conferencing. 

Summary points of the meeting: 

 Drought conditions have improved in the Four Corners since this time last year but 

drought still persists and is still D1 and D2 in the mountain regions and at a D3 level in 

the downstream parts of the basin. 

 Monsoonal precipitation has improved soil moisture conditions and has had some 

positive impacts to reservoir storage levels. Flash flooding and high sediment loads have 

occurred multiple times in the San Juan River Basin from June to August. 

 April-July runoff in WY 2022 totaled 382 kaf at Navajo Reservoir, which is 61% of 

average. 

 No SJRIP-prescribed Spring Peak Release was conducted in WY 2022. Releases were 

made to maintain the minimum SJRIP-recommended target baseflow in the critical 

habitat reach. Releases were reduced when possible to save water during rain events. 

Summer releases have ranged from 300 cfs to 800 cfs. 

 No projected shortage to contracted water users in WY 2022 

 Projected End of Water Year Storage ranges from 830 kaf live/204 kaf active (6016 ft, 

50% full) to 970 kaf live/344 kaf active (6031 ft, 59% full) with a median projection of 

875 kaf live/249 active (6021 ft, 53% full) 

Copies of the material presented, and past meeting notes are available online at: 

http://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/nvd.html 

If you have any suggestions on improving the operation meetings or the summaries of the 

meetings, please let us know. 

Next meeting date: Tuesday, January 17th, 2023 at 1:00 PM. This meeting is currently 

planned to be held in-person at the Farmington Civic Center, in Farmington, NM with a 

video and/or phone option for those who would like to attend virtually. This is subject to 

change based on the situation at the time. Please contact sbehery@usbr.gov for questions 

or updates. A notice will be sent out in December with meeting updates and details.
NAVAJO UNIT OPERATIONS MEETING 

August 23rd, 2022 

Participation: This meeting was held virtually via Microsoft Teams. The attendance list is 

attached. 

Purpose of Meeting: The purpose of these meetings, held annually in January, April, and 

August, is to gather input for determining upcoming operations for Navajo Reservoir. This input 

is used in Reclamation’s development of an overall 24-month study for operation of Reclamation 

projects in the Upper Colorado River Basin, which includes plans for Glen Canyon, Flaming 

Gorge, Aspinall Unit and Navajo. Input from individuals, organizations, and agencies, along 

with other factors such as weather, water rights, endangered species requirements, flood control, 

hydro power, recreation, fish and wildlife management, and reservoir levels, will be considered 

in the development of these reservoir operation plans. In addition, the meetings are used to 

coordinate activities and exchange information among agencies, water users, and other interested 

parties concerning the San Juan River and Navajo Reservoir. 

Weather Summary and Outlook 

Aldis Strautins, National Weather Service, Grand Junction 

Precipitation and Temperature: Water year 2022 began in October of 2021. The temperatures on 

average over the water year have been 1-2 degrees above normal in the Four Corners. 

It was a dry fall for three quarters of the western slope going into the winter season. Water year 

precipitation through the end of December was very wet, with a large storm system during the 

holiday season. After January 1st, things really dried out with only a couple of large storm events 

keeping the snowpack up and long spells of dry weather. Then towards the end of June, 

monsoonal events picked up, bringing well above average moisture to much of the UC basin, 

including the Four Corners region. August has not produced as much precipitation as June and 

July did in this basin, but it has still been active especially on the western and southwestern parts 

of the basin. 

SNOTEL precipitation: Cumulative precipitation plots from SNOTEL stations illustrated the 

nature of our storm systems this year. A large December storm, a February storm, and a smaller 

March storm were the primary drivers of our snowpack levels, with long stretches of dry weather 

in between. Then precipitation accumulated in earnest after late July from rainstorms. 

 

Drought: Despite the rain, the Four Corners is still in drought conditions, though less severe than 

this time last year. Drought conditions have lessened in a push from east to west, though some 

D3 still remains in the western part of the Four Corners. 

ENSO: We are in our second year of La Nina, with a likelihood of La Nina continuing through 

this winter, and possibly transitioning to Neutral next spring. This will be the third sequential La 

Nina, and there are very few historical analogs to guide us. La Nina typically results in a dry 

weather pattern for the southwest US and a wetter pattern for the Northwest US. 
Weather Outlook: CPC is showing potential for slightly above average precip and temperatures 

over the next 6-10 days, and same for 8-14 days. The September outlook shows continuation of 

monsoonal pattern in Arizona, and some of that moisture may be able to make its way up to the 

Four Corners region. The likelihood is high for above average temperatures in September. 

Unfortunately, the 3-month outlook (September – November) is for below-average precip and 

above average temperatures. The seasonal outlook through January is similar, with belowaverage precip and above average temperatures over the southwest, consistent with a La Nina 

pattern. 

Streamflow Summary and Outlook 

Ashley Nielson, Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, Salt Lake City 

Water Year 2022 Conditions Summary: Overall the San Juan River above Navajo Reservoir 

during the snow accumulation season averaged 90% of average. However, this average was 

calculated with highs and lows on a monthly basis. November precipitation was 10% of average 

while December precipitation was 230% of average. 

Similarly, spring and summer precipitation continued with drastic ups and downs, with May 

precip coming in at 15% of average and June with 450% of average, though it was noted that 

June is typically our driest year, so the percent of average number can be high with very little 

precipitation. April and May precipitation this year was in the bottom 5-10 years on record 

while June to July precipitation was amongst the top 5 years on record. 

 

Peak Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) was below normal over the majority of the basin and near 

normal above Navajo. SWE peaked early and melted out extremely early this year. Accelerated 

melt rates were due to warm temperatures, minimal precipitation, and above normal dust. Melt 

out occurred very early this year, 3-4 weeks earlier than normal. 

Baseflow conditions were normal to below-normal prior to spring runoff. Runoff peaks were 3-4 

weeks early and below normal in magnitude. Following the spring runoff peaks, there was a 

rapid decline to much below normal flows during the normal time of peak spring flows. June and 

July rain increased the flows again back to near or even above normal. 

2022 April-July Observed Volumes: Runoff volume totals ranged from 50-70% of average in the 

San Juan River Basin. Navajo Reservoir inflow was 61% of average. Forecasts decreased from 

May to June due to the much below normal precipitation. Above normal June and July 

precipitation resulted in an increase to the forecast. The wet conditions in June and July helped to 

avoid what could have been a much worse water supply outcome given another warm and dry 

spring with significant dust conditions. 

2022 Water Supply Forecast Performance: Forecast errors fell into the normal range of errors for 

January-May forecasts for most forecast points in the San Juan River Basin. The AnimasDurango forecast point errors were slightly outside of normal error but were still reasonably 

handled by the model. The June forecast error was higher than normal due to the above normal 
precipitation. The observed April-July volumes would most likely have been near or below the 

90% forecast if June and July precipitation had been near normal. The model’s soil moisture and 

snow states seemed to be well represented. Model handled the above average dust conditions. 

Current Conditions and Outlooks: Month to date precipitation in August is looking great for the 

Colorado River Basin as a whole, especially the southwest portion of the basin. Unfortunately 

the San Juan River Basin doesn’t seem to be getting as much of that precipitation this month. 

The western half the basin has seen 110-150% of average precipitation, but the eastern half of 

the basin is still below normal, anywhere from 50% to 90% of average. Soil moisture conditions 

have improved since last year, with soil moisture between 50% and 110% of normal in the basin. 

Soil moisture conditions are a snapshot in time, and are provisional. CBRFC’s soil moisture 

analysis to set up the next water year forecasts does not occur until November. 

Operations in WY 2022 so far and Current Conditions in the Basin 

Susan Behery, Reclamation 

Throughout most of the fall and winter, Navajo released more than the inflow, losing 

approximately six feet of elevation from October to March. The reservoir elevation peaked on 

May 24th at 6029.43 feet, 58% of live and 32% of active storage. 

The release over most of the spring and summer ranged between 300 cfs and 800 cfs, and was 

the minimum required to maintain the minimum target baseflow (TBF) in the critical habitat 

reach. The TBF goal range is between 500 cfs and 1,000 cfs on average along the USGS gages 

from Farmington, NM to Bluff, UT. 

The final April-July inflow volumes were as follows: 

Navajo: 381 kaf (60% avg) 

Vallecito: 125 kaf (71% avg) 

Lemon: 32 kaf (67% avg) 

Animas: 230 kaf (60% avg) 

McPhee: 144 kaf (56% avg) 

Powell: 3,750 kaf (59% avg) 

*1991 –2020 average 

Precipitation described by the CBRFC and NWS presentations were beneficial to storage at 

Navajo with increased inflow but also by allowing for reduced releases required to maintain the 

TBF. Reservoir elevation is approximately 8 feet lower today than it was this time last year. 

Storage is approximately 120 kaf less than it was this time last year. 

Monsoonal events between June and August were intense, leading to flashing floods throughout 

the San Juan River. Flows between the dam and Farmington exceeded 3,000 cfs during at least 

six distinct storm events, and exceeded 5,000 cfs during three of those storm events. These 

storms also brought sediment loads into the river channel that have caused numerous safety as 

well as maintenance issues. 
Around the basin, storage levels are as follows: McPhee is at 53% live storage, Lake Nighthorse 

is at 99% live storage, Lemon is at 36% live storage, Vallecito is at 50% live storage, Jackson 

Gulch is at 68% live storage, and Navajo is at 55% live storage (27% of active storage). 

Looking at the larger Upper Colorado River Basin, Blue Mesa is at 42% live storage, Flaming 

Gorge is at 75% live storage, and Lake Powell is at 26% live storage. 

Proposed Operations for remainder of WY 2022 and WY 2023 

Based on operational projections from the inflow forecasts, we expect the release at Navajo to 

remain between 250 cfs and 850 cfs, depending on irrigation and runoff timing. Pursuant to the 

Record of Decision (2006), fall and winter releases may be reduced to as low as 250 cfs to 

conserve water as long as environmental commitments can be maintained at that level. 

The currently projected end of water year (Sept 30th, 2022) elevations range from 6015 ft to 

6031 ft with a median projection of 6022 ft. If rain continues, we should expect the higher end, 

if the rains cease and we start getting hot dry weather, expect the lower end of that range. 

Projections for runoff in WY 2023 are currently based on current conditions and statistical 

historical calculations. Based on where we are sitting currently in the basin, and drawing on the 

last 30 years of snowpack and hydrology, we have a 25% chance of being able to conduct a 

SJRIP-recommended spring peak release in the spring of 2023. Conversely, we have a 7% 

chance of seeing a shortage, if we have snowpack years similar to 2002 or 2018. The median 

projection in 2023 is for no spring peak release and an end of year reservoir elevation of 6045 ft. 

Currently there are no plans for releasing water from Navajo to Lake Powell for the purposes of 

the Drought Response Operations Plan (DROA). DROA plans for Navajo will be revisited 

during Water Year 2023. 

Agency Updates 

San Juan River Recovery Implementation Program (SJRIP): 

 The FY2023 workplan was recently approved. 

 The website has been recently renovated and has a lot of great information in it: 

https://coloradoriverrecovery.org/sj/. 

 The program partners are currently crafting the post-2023 plans, stay tuned. 

 The next Biology Committee meeting is scheduled for December 6-8 and will be a hybrid 

meeting. 

 The winter Biology Committee meeting is scheduled for February 21-23. 

 The joint San Juan-Upper Colorado recovery program’s Researchers meeting will be on 

January 31-Feb 1, and will be in Moab or Grand Junction. 

New Mexico Office of the State Engineer (NMOSE): Hiring a Tech 2 position and Assistant 

Water Master. 
Bloomfield Irrigation Ditch (BID): The recent storms caused a 2-week shutdown. Every time it 

rains since sediment is a continuous issue. The reservoir water is silty and full of sediment. 

Navajo Agricultural Products Incorporated (NAPI): Diversions from Navajo to NIIP- shutting 

the gate October 14th. 

New Mexico Interstate Stream Commission (NMISC): The Upper Division States are going to 

send a letter to Commissioner of Reclamation Camille Touton in the next few days to propose a 

meeting in early September to initiate the early DROA process that is a part of the Upper Basin's 

5 Point Plan to respond to the Commissioner's challenge to find 2 to 4 million acre-feet of 

additional water this year. 

Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies: Our season summary for this past winter is available at 

codos.org 

Attendance List – August 23rd, 2022 Navajo Operations Meeting

Christina Noftsker NMISC

Steve Austin Navajo Nation EPA

Lionel Haskie NAPI

Helen Sobien NMISC

Trevor Birt NMOSE

Jeanette Joe NAPI

Ali Effati NMISC

Jenny Dumas Jicarilla Apache Nation

Colleen Cunningham NMISC

Dex Lewis Reclamation

Lee Traynham Reclamation

Michele Truby Tillen San Juan County

Scott Durst FWS, SJRIP

Renae Pablo NAPI

Ed Warner Reclamation

Susan Behery Reclamation

Kathi Smith Hammond Conservancy District

Adrienne Soder Arizona Public Service  

Dominique Work NMISC

Jeff Derry Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies

John Critchfield William J. Miller Engineers, Inc

Joe Trungale TNC

Bart Deming Reclamation

Nabil Shafike US Army Corps of Engineers

Aaron Chavez San Juan Water Commission
Robb Carter Navajo State Park

Jim Dumont Senator Martin Heinrich's Office

Melissa Mata San Juan River Recovery Implementation Program

Erik Knight Reclamation

Tyrell Lee NAPI

Tom Chart Water Users rep to the SJRIP Biology Committee

Roselyn Yazzie NAPI

Carrie Padgett SWWCD

Clayton Johnston Turley Manzanares

Robert Wormuth Turley Manzanares

Scott Miller APS

Shawn Williams NMOSE

Ryan Seamus Royer Reclamation

Ashley Nielson CBRFC

Linda Corwin Bloomfield, NM

Dawn Knuppel San Juan County

Joe Rasor Land Owner

Julie Rasor Land Owner

Evelyn Archuleta No affiliation

Mike Mestas San Juan County

Stacy Dodd Bloomfield Irrigation District

Elizabeth Serrano Bloomfield Irrigation District

Andrew Sova City of Farmington

Norman Norvelle SJWG Steering Committee/Retired NMED Environmental Specialist