BUREAU OF RECLAMATION

NAVAJO RESERVOIR COORDINATION MEETING

JANUARY 16, 2024 

SUMMARY

Dear Interested Party:

Enclosed is a summary of the January 16th, 2024 meeting to coordinate Bureau of Reclamation’s 

(Reclamation) operation of the Navajo Unit. The meeting was held virtually via Microsoft 

Teams video and by phone. 

Summary points of the meeting: 

• Storage in Navajo on this date is 240 thousand acre-feet (kaf) higher than it was this time 

last year.

• Precipitation so far in Water Year 2024 on the whole has been below average. Snow 

conditions have improved in the last week due to a favorable weather pattern in early 

January. Snowpack is still below normal as of today. We are less than halfway through 

snow accumulation season. 

• Soil moisture conditions are below average and generally worse than they were last year. 

Soil moisture, along with spring weather and other factors, can have significant effects on 

the runoff efficiency.

• The first April-July runoff forecast of the year (January 1st) has a range of 235 kaf (37% 

of average) to 770 kaf (123% of average) with a median forecast of 375 kaf (60% of 

average). 

• There is potential for sufficient water for a spring peak release (currently a 15% chance 

based on forecasts). We would need quite a bit more snow for that to happen but don’t 

rule it out.

• Reservoir is expected to peak at a minimum of 6045 feet (just slightly higher than the 

current elevation) under the min probable forecast, and 6055 ft or higher under the max 

probable forecast. The peak under the max probable forecast could be much higher, and 

will depend entirely on timing of runoff into the reservoir and the releases. 

Copies of the material presented, and past meeting notes are available online at: 

http://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/nvd.html 

If you have any suggestions on improving the operation meetings or the summaries of the 

meetings, please let us know. 

Next meeting date: Tuesday, April 23rd 2024 at 1:00 PM. This meeting is currently planned 

to be held in-person at the Farmington Civic Center, in Farmington, NM with a virtual 

option. Please contact sbehery@usbr.gov for questions or updates. 
NAVAJO UNIT OPERATIONS MEETING

January 16th, 2024 

Participation: This meeting was held in person and virtually via Microsoft Teams. The 

attendance list is attached. 

Purpose of Meeting: The purpose of these meetings, held annually in January, April, and 

August, is to gather input for determining upcoming operations for Navajo Reservoir. This input 

is used in Reclamation’s development of an overall 24-month study for operation of Reclamation 

projects in the Upper Colorado River Basin, which includes plans for Glen Canyon, Flaming 

Gorge, Aspinall Unit and Navajo. Input from individuals, organizations, and agencies, along 

with other factors such as weather, water rights, endangered species requirements, flood control, 

hydro power, recreation, fish and wildlife management, and reservoir levels, will be considered 

in the development of these reservoir operation plans. In addition, the meetings are used to 

coordinate activities and exchange information among agencies, water users, and other interested 

parties concerning the San Juan River and Navajo Reservoir. 

Operations in WY 2024 so far and Current Conditions in the Basin

Susan Behery, Reclamation, Western Colorado Area Office 

The meeting began with a review of the past week’s storm cycle. Over the last seven days, the 

average snow water equivalent (SWE) in the Upper Colorado Region as a whole increased from 

68% of median to 90% of median. The SWE in the San Juan Basin increased from 73% of 

median to 86% of median. 

Water Year 2024 began on October 1, 2023, with Navajo holding 1,146 kaf of live storage (520 

kaf active storage) at elevation 6046.6 ft. The Navajo Indian Irrigation Project (NIIP) ended 

their diversions for the year on October 27th. The release to meet the downstream target 

baseflow (TBF) in the critical habitat reach has ranged between 300 and 350 cfs for the 

remainder of the fall and early winter. Releases are made for the authorized purposes of the 

Navajo Unit, and to attempt to maintain a target base flow through the endangered fish critical 

habitat reach of the San Juan River (Farmington to Lake Powell). The San Juan River Basin 

Recovery Implementation Program recommends a target base flow of between 500 cfs and 1,000 

cfs through the critical habitat area. The target base flow is calculated as the weekly average of 

gaged flows throughout the critical habitat area from Farmington to Lake Powell. 

So far inflows this water year have been 47% of average. Releases have managed to stay below 

average while maintaining the authorized purposes of the Reservoir and ESA commitments. The 

reservoir has lost approximately 55 kaf of storage (just under 5 feet of elevation) since the 

beginning of the water year. Navajo storage is approximately 240 kaf higher than this time last 

year.

Around the basin, most reservoirs are in a similar or improved state over last year. As of the 

meeting date, McPhee holds 292,145 af (77% of live storage). Lake Nighthorse is at 111,759 af 

(97% of live storage) and is planned for topping off this spring. Lemon is at 15,645 af (39% of 

live storage). Vallecito is at 62,044 af (49% live storage), and Jackson is at 4,561 af (46% of live 
storage). Navajo is at 1,093,365 af, or 66% of live storage (46% of active storage).

Around the Upper Colorado River Drainage Basin: Flaming Gorge is 86% full, Blue Mesa is 

69% full, and Lake Powell is 36% full.

Hydrologic Outlook

Erin Walter, National Weather Service (NWS), Grand Junction

The Upper San Juan Basin 82% of median after this latest storm as compared to 1991-2020. The 

Piedra is closest to median with 98% and the Animas is the lowest with 80% of median on this 

date. Overall, all basins within the San Juan River Basin experienced a significant bump from 

the latest round of storms pushing SWE in the right direction. 

The recent drought monitor updates show the Four Corners in drought levels ranging from D1 to 

D3, increasing in intensity towards the southeast side of the basin. 

There was discussion on the interplay between the current El Nino and other meteorological 

phenomenon including the Madden Julien Oscillation (MJO) and the Pacific-North American

teleconnection pattern (PNA). The ENSO status alone does not dictate weather patterns, 

especially in Western Colorado and the San Juan Basin. 

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is showing chances for above average temperatures and 

above average precipitation for the next two weeks. The seasonal outlook for January, February, 

and March shows equal chances for above average or below average temperatures, and a chance 

for above average precipitation. This outlook was last updated on December 21st, and at the 

meeting time, it had not been updated to the latest information. 

The day following the meeting, the CPC guidance was updated and now shows equal chances for 

above and below average temperatures and precipitation. Go to https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

for more information.

Since spring is often the time that windy conditions bring dust throughout the San Juans, a map 

was shown of 500mb heights on the horizon through March. The map does not show significant 

anomalies that would indicate higher elevation winds in the forecast. 

Streamflow Forecast and Weather Outlook 

Ashley Nielson, Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC), Salt Lake City 

Precipitation departures from average for this year are much higher than last water year. We have 

not seen the precipitation we would have liked to see for this time of year. Consequently, we are 

seeing below average soil moisture conditions, worse than this time last year. Soil moisture can 

have a significant impact on runoff efficiency. The soil moisture deficit must be fulfilled before 

runoff can occur. The timing and magnitude of runoff is ultimately a result of spring weather 

(both precipitation and temperature), snow conditions, soil moisture, and dust conditions. 
The mid-January water supply forecasts range from 55 to 75% of average and reflect the recent 

storm cycle with a slight increase over the official January forecasts from two weeks ago. 

However, it is still early in the snow accumulation season and the forecast range is still quite 

wide. By January 1st, only 40% of snow accumulation season has occurred. As we move through 

the season and weather materializes (or doesn’t), that range will narrow.

Proposed Operations for remainder of WY 2023 

Susan Behery – Reclamation, Western Colorado Area Office 

The latest (January 1st) CBRFC official Most Probable April-July runoff forecasts are as follows:

Navajo: 375 kaf (60%* avg) 

Vallecito: 118 kaf (67% avg) 

Lemon: 30 kaf (63% avg) 

Animas: 265 kaf (69% avg) 

McPhee: 145 kaf (57% avg) 

Powell: 4,200 kaf (66% avg) 

*average of the 1991 – 2020 time period 

Water Supply forecasts are much lower than this time last year due to the slow start to the snow 

accumulation season. NRCS water supply forecasts largely agree with CBRFC forecasts though 

are slightly higher for the Navajo Unit inflow. 

Releases the remainder of this winter are likely to range between 350 and 400 cfs until early

spring. At this point there may be an increase in the release to maintain the downstream target 

baseflows until runoff begins. 

Navajo spring operations are made in accordance with the Record of Decision (2006). Spring 

operations will depend on if there is any “available water” after calculating storage levels, 

upstream reservoir operations, and after calculating that all contract releases and minimum ESA 

requirements are met, as well as several other factors.

Based on the current streamflow conditions, storage levels, and statistical outlooks based on 30 

years of historical hydrology, Navajo Reservoir runoff projections range from 235 kaf (37% avg) 

to 770 kaf (123% avg) with a median projection of 375 kaf (60% avg). While sufficient 

Available Water for a spring peak release under the Min or Most probable forecasts, there is 

sufficient Available Water for a 21-27 day long release predicted under the Max probable 

forecast. It is important to note that the three forecasts (Min, Most, and Max) are calculated to 

provide a range of possibilities, and one of these single forecasts is unlikely to occur itself. 

Under each forecast, no project shortages are expected to occur in WY2024. The reservoir 

forecast to peak between 6045 and 6055 ft in spring, though it could peak higher depending on 

the timing of snowmelt runoff. Storage in the reservoir is expected to end the water year 

between 925 kaf (6025 ft, 56% full) and 1,170 kaf (6055 ft, 71% full). 

Project managers for the Turley Manzanares Ditch Company Diversion Dam Rehabilitation 

Project have requested a very short reduction in the release to 250 cfs for instream work. The 
release will be made through the Auxiliary 4x4 during this time. This reduction from 350 cfs to 

250 cfs will begin Monday, January 29th at 3:00 PM. The release will be restored to 350 cfs on 

Tuesday, January 30th at 8:00 AM. 

An exploratory drilling project has begun on the dam face. You may see drill rigs and official 

personnel working along the face and crest of the dam through summer of 2025. Periodic 

extended road closures will occur on CR511 (crossing the dam) and CR539 (dam crest). No 

road closures are planned during the summer recreational season (between Memorial Day and 

Labor Day). 

Kelsey Deckert, O&M Group Chief for Reclamation’s Western Colorado Area Office answered 

several questions regarding this work. The latest information includes a likely road closure on 

539 between Mid-February and continuing into May. There may be some openings in between

when drill crews are switching over. Additional closures or updates may occur. NMDOT’s 

website is your best source of information on the current closures.

Agency Updates

San Juan River Recovery Implementation Program (SJRIP): The Researchers meeting with 

SJRIP’s sibling program the Upper Colorado Endangered Fish recovery program meeting will be 

in Grand Junction on January 30th-31st. The purpose of that meeting is to broadly cover research 

and monitoring results over the entire Colorado River Basin related to endangered fish recovery. 

There is a virtual option for that meeting if folks are interested or you can attend in person in 

Grand Junction. The SJRIP BC meeting will be held in Albuquerque on February 6-8, and there 

are virtual options for that meeting as well. Lastly, the Program’s partners are working to 

reauthorize the recovery programs future funding for recovery activities. 

NM Office of the State Engineer (NMOSE): There may be up to a weeklong outage on the 

website’s realtime diversion information as the switch is made to radio from satellite telemetry. 

This change is being made to hopefully get rid of some of the issues with stations not reporting 

properly. 

Navajo Agricultural Products Incorporated (NAPI): Diversions from Navajo to NIIP- gate will 

be opening on February 12th. 

Links

• Navajo Project Notices: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/wcao/water/rsvrs/notice/nav_rel.html

• Navajo Monthly Forecast Update: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/nvd.html

• UC Water Operations Home: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/index.html

• Teacups: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/basin/index.html

• 24-Month Study: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/index.html

• DROA: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html
Attendance List

Adrienne Soder Arizona Public Service 

Ali Effati NMISC

Ashley Nielson CBRFC

Cameron Corley APS, Four Corners Power Plant 

Carrie Bean Monticello BLM Office, San Juan River Permit Desk

Carrie Padgett SWWCD

Chico Quintana Reclamation FCCO

Chris Wilkowske USGS Moab, Utah Water Science Center

Christina Noftsker NMISC

Colleen Cunningham NMISC

David Shoultz NTUA, NGWSP Op’s Manager

Diane Agnew Albuqerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority (ABCWUA) 

Dominique Work NMISC

Ed Bulloch San Juan Watershed Group 

Elizabeth Serrano Bloomfield Irrigation District

Erin Walter National Weather Service, Grand Junction

Garret Ross USACE Albuquerque 

Jamie Shockey City of Farmington 

Jason Sullivan RSI

Jeanette Joe NAPI

Jeff Derry Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies 

Jen Dumas Jicarilla Apache Nation

Jim Dumont Senator Martin Heinrich's Office

Joe and Julie Razor Local Landowners

Joe Trungale TNC

Justyn Liff Reclamation

Kathi Smith Hammond Conservancy District 

Kelsey Deckert Bureau of Reclamation

Kerri Pedersen Bureau of Reclamation

Kilian Carey Farmington Fire 

Lee Bryand Local Landowner

Les Larson Hillside Irrigation District

Marc Miller Reclamation WCAO

Michele Truby-Tillen San Juan County 

Pam Norris APS

Paul Montoia Retired, City of Farmington 

Robert Sterrett Farmington Fire 

Ryan Seamus Royer Reclamation FCCO

Scott Durst FWS, SJRIP

Scott Miller APS

Shawn Williams NMOSE

Sherice Snell San Juan Water Commission 

Stacy Dodd Bloomfield Irrigation District

Steve Austin Navajo Nation EPA 

Susan Behery Bureau of Reclamation 
Tammy Gallegos San Juan County Utah

Tom Miller Farmington Fire