Update on Draft Performance Metrics for the 

Long-Term Experimental & Management Plan 

Technical Work Group Meeting 

Phoenix, Arizona 

November 8, 2023 

Helen C. Fairley 

U.S. Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center 

Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center 

U.S. Department of the Interior 

U.S. Geological Survey 
Acronyms Used in This Presentation 

 AMWG: Adaptive Management Working Group 

 CRE: Colorado River Ecosystem 

 DOI: Department of Interior 

 GCE: Grand Canyon Ecosystem 

 GCMRC: Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center 

 GCNRA: Glen Canyon National Recreation Area 

 HBC: Humpback Chub 

 LCR: Little Colorado River 

 LTEMP: Long Term Experimental and Management Plan 

 ROD : Record of Decision 

 SRP: Soluble Reactive Phosphorous 

 TWG: Technical Work Group 
Why is this project important? 

(Purpose and Need for Metrics) 

 LTEMP defines 11 Goals for 20-year plan 

 How do we know if Goals are being achieved? 

 Need to define performance metrics 

 Section 6.1(c) of the LTEMP ROD* 

“The DOI, in consultation with the AMWG, will develop 

monitoring metrics for the goals and objectives using those in 

Appendix C as a starting point.” 

(Note: Appendix C = performance metrics developed by Runge 

et al. (2016) to help select the preferred LTEMP alternative.) 

 FY 21-23 TWP, Reclamation Project C.12 

* Department of Interior, 2016, Record of Decision for the Glen Canyon Dam Long Term Experimental and 

Management Plan Final Environmental Impact Statement, December 2016. Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado 

River Region, Salt Lake City, Utah and National Park Service, Intermountain Region, Lakewood, Colorado. 
Metrics 

 A quantitative measure to assess performance, 

track progress, and monitor success or failure. 

 Are we on track to meet program goals? 

 Have we achieved program goals? 

 Metrics require standardized monitoring 

protocols so as to be comparable over time 

 Some basic tenets of metrics design and 

selection include: 

 Prioritize quality of metrics over quantity 

 Design metrics that are easy to understand 

 Design metrics that are easy to compare 
Monitoring not the same as Metrics 

Principal types and reasons for monitoring include: 

 Effectiveness (or Performance) Monitoring 

1. To assess effectiveness of policy, plan, or legislation 

2. To evaluate progress towards achieving management 

objectives or regulatory standards 

 Surveillance Monitoring 

3. To detect incipient trends (“early warnings”) 

4. To determine resource status in order to plan 

appropriate management actions 

 Validation Monitoring 

5. To increase understanding of resource dynamics 

6. To develop and refine models or predictions 
This Project 

 Focus on defining metrics to monitor effectiveness 

of LTEMP (i.e., Are we achieving LTEMP Goals?) 

 “To assess effectiveness of policy . . .” and 

 “ track progress towards achieving management 

objectives . . .” 

 Specific focus is on defining metrics for assessing 

and tracking achievement of LTEMP Goal outcomes 

 These metrics are not tracking means to achieving goals 

 Metrics for other objectives & purposes can be defined later 

 Performance metrics tell us “achieving/achieved” or 

“not achieved” -- but not necessarily why 

 This will not be a comprehensive Monitoring Plan! 
LTEMP Goals 

 LTEMP Goals (from 2016 LTEMP FEIS and ROD)  1. Archaeological and Cultural Resources. Maintain the integrity of potentially affected NRHP-eligible or listed 

historic properties in place, where possible, with preservation methods employed on a site-specific basis. 

 2. Natural Processes. Restore, to the extent practicable, ecological patterns and processes within their range of 

natural variability, including the natural abundance, diversity, and genetic and ecological integrity of the plant 

and animal species native to those ecosystems. 

 3. Humpback Chub. Meet humpback chub recovery goals, including maintaining a self-sustaining population, 

spawning habitat, and aggregations in the Colorado River and its tributaries below the Glen Canyon Dam. 

 4. Hydropower and Energy. Maintain or increase Glen Canyon Dam electric energy generation, load following 

capability, and ramp rate capability, and minimize emissions and costs to the greatest extent practicable, 

consistent with improvement and long-term sustainability of downstream resources. 

 5. Other Native Fish. Maintain self-sustaining native fish species populations and their habitats in their natural 

ranges on the Colorado River and its tributaries. 

 6. Recreational Experience. Maintain and improve the quality of recreational experiences for the users of the 

Colorado River Ecosystem. Recreation includes, but is not limited to, flatwater and whitewater boating, river 

corridor camping, and angling in Glen Canyon. 

 7. Sediment. Increase and retain fine sediment volume, area, and distribution in the Glen, Marble, and Grand 

Canyon reaches above the elevation of the average base flow for ecological, cultural, and recreational purposes. 

 8. Tribal Resources. Maintain the diverse values and resources of traditionally associated Tribes along the 

Colorado River corridor through Glen, Marble, and Grand Canyons. 

 9. Rainbow Trout Fishery. Achieve a healthy high-quality recreational rainbow trout fishery in GCNRA and 

reduce or eliminate downstream trout migration consistent with NPS fish management and ESA compliance. 

 10. Nonnative Invasive Species. Minimize or reduce the presence and expansion of aquatic nonnative invasives. 

 11. Riparian Vegetation. Maintain native vegetation and wildlife habitat, in various stages of 

maturity, such that they are diverse, healthy, productive, self-sustaining, and ecologically 

appropriate. 
LTEMP Performance Metrics: Criteria 

 Reflects the expected performance outcome of each 

LTEMP goal, not underlying “means objectives” 

 Quantifiable (metric = measurable) 

 Technically & financially feasible to measure (e.g., 

sustainable to monitor over a long period of time) 

 Relevant to the metrics used to select LTEMP 

preferred alternative 
 

 

 

 

Example: Humpback Chub (Gila cypha) 

 Goal Statement: Meet humpback chub recovery goals, including 

maintaining a self-sustaining population, spawning habitat, and 

aggregations in the Colorado River and its tributaries below the GCD 

 Performance Metrics 

 3.1 Current tier of HBC in LCR aggregation 

 3.2 Grand Canyon-wide HBC abundance 

 3.3 Proportion of Grand Canyon ecosystem with 

evidence of all 3 life stages 

 Surveillance metrics (“drivers” of outcome): 

 Water qualities (temperature, oxygen, turbidity, etc.) 

 Nutrients (e.g., SRP) and food base quality 

 Predator loads 

 LCR flood magnitude & frequency 
Conceptual diagrams capture 

underlying “drivers” of goal outcome 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Examples of Surveillance Metrics 

These are “drivers” of goal outcomes; important to 

monitor for many reasons & resources 

Metric Name Measurement Location(s) Frequency Method 

Relevant 

Goals 

Daily/monthly/annual releases m3/sec (cfs) GCD, LF, Phantom, DC 15 min increments auto sample All 

Daily range (magnitude of fluctuations) m3/sec (cfs) GCD, LF, Phantom, DC 15 min increments auto sample All 

Water Temperature Degrees C (F) GCD, -8 mi, LF, 5 sed gages 15 min increments auto sample 2,3,5,6,9,10 

Turbidity fnu 6 mainstem sed gages 15 min increments auto sample 2,3,5,6,7,9,10 

Dissolved Oxygen mg/L GCD, -8 mile, LF 15 min increments auto sample 2,3,5,9,10 

Ph unitless GCD, LF monthly grab sample 2,3,5,9,10,11 

Phosphorus (SRP, TDP, TP) mg/L GCD, LF, Paria monthly grab sample 2,3,5,9,10,11 

Nitrogen (TN, NO23, NH4, TDN) mg/L GCD, LF monthly grab sample 2,3,5,9,10,11 

Available Sunlight (Canyon shading) 

PPFD μmol m-2 

s-1 

Entire Cre- Yard et al. 

2005 instantaneous modeled 

2,3,5,9,10,11 

Sediment mass balance (inputs/export) metric tons 6 mainstem gages 15 min increments auto sample/modeled 1,2,6,7,11 

Weather/climate parameter: Air 

Temperature Degrees C (F) 

LF, 11mi, 24.5, 70, 125, 

223mi 4 min increments auto sample 

2,6,11 

Weather/climate parameter: Wind 

intensity 

1,6,7,11 

km/hr 6 weather stations 4 min increments auto sample 

Weather/ climate parameter: Wind 

direction degrees 6 weather stations 4 min increments auto sample 

1,6,7,11 

Weather/climate parameter: 

precip.intensity 

1,6,7,11 

mm/hr 6 weather stations 4 min increments auto sample 

Weather/climate parameter: 

precip.amount mm/hr 6 weather stations 4 min increments auto sample 

1,6,7,11 

weather/climate parameter: humidity 6 weather stations 4 min increments auto sample 6,11 
Update on Draft Metrics Report 

 FY ‘21: Start project. Settle on project scope, initiate 

internal discussions, draft metrics for review 

 February ‘22: Multiple meetings with DOI agency partners 

and other cooperators to review draft metrics 

 June 9, ‘22: Draft report sent to TWG; discussed at June 

TWG meeting. Revised base on initial TWG comments 

 Oct. ‘22: TWG Presentation; more comments received 

 November ‘22-Feb ‘23: Additional revisions made 

 March ’23: Revised draft shared with DOI agencies 

 May ‘23: Meeting with DOI agencies to discuss draft 

 June-Sept ‘23: GCMRC made requested DOI revisions to 

Goals 1 and 2; ongoing discussion re: sediment metrics 

 Now: Need to loop back with DOI again 
 

 

 

Draft metrics, Goal 1 

 Goal 1 – Archaeological Resources 

Maintain the integrity of potentially affected NRHP-eligible or listed 

historic properties in place, where possible, with preservation 

methods employed on a site-specific basis. 

 1.1 Integrity 

 1.2 Topographic Change at a Sample of Sites 

 1.3 Change in Vulnerability to Loss of Integrity 
 

 

 

 

 

Draft Metrics, Goal 2 

 Goal 2 – Natural Processes 

Restore, to the extent practicable, ecological patterns and 

processes within their range of natural variability, including the 

natural abundance, diversity, and genetic and ecological integrity 

of the plant and animal species native to those ecosystems 

 2.1 Deviation from Natural Flow Metric 

(We also discuss “sub-metrics” for spring-early summer, late 

summer-fall, and winter deviation from natural flows) 

 2.2 Sub-daily Flow Fluctuation Metric 

 2.3 Springtime Gross Primary Productivity 

 2.4 Percent EPT Metric 
 

 

 

 

 

Draft Metrics, Goal 3 

 Goal 3- Humpback Chub (Gila cypha) 

Meet humpback chub recovery goals, including maintaining a selfsustaining population, spawning habitat, and aggregations in the 

Colorado River and its tributaries below the Glen Canyon Dam 

 3.1 Current Tier of HBC in LCR Aggregation 

 3.2 Grand Canyon-wide Abundance of Adult HBC 

 3.3 Proportion of Grand Canyon Ecosystem with 

Evidence of All 3 Life Stages of HBC 
Draft Metrics, continued 

 Goal 5 – Other Native Fishes 

Maintain self-sustaining native fish species populations and their 

habitats in their natural ranges on the Co. River and its tributaries 

 5.1 - 5.3: Proportion of the Grand Canyon Ecosystem (GCE) with 

Evidence of All 3 life stages of Bluehead sucker (Catostomus 

discobolus) (5.1), Flannelmouth Sucker (Catostomus latipinnis) 

(5.2), Razorback Sucker (Xyrauchen texanus) (5.3) 

 5.4 Proportion of GCE with Speckled Dace (Rhinichthys osculus) 

(any life stage) 

 5.5 Proportion of GCE with Extirpated Species (any life stage) 

 Goal 9 – Rainbow Trout Fishery 

Achieve a healthy high-quality recreational rainbow trout fishery in 

GCNRA and reduce or eliminate downstream trout migration 

consistent with NPS fish management and ESA compliance 

 9.1 Trout Angler Catch Rate 

 9.2 Rainbow Trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) Abundance 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Draft Metrics, continued 

 Goal 4 – Hydropower 

Maintain or increase Glen Canyon Dam electric energy generation, 

load following capability, and ramp rate capability, and minimize 

emissions and costs to the greatest extent practicable, consistent 

with improvement and long-term sustainability of downstream 

resources 

4.1 – Economic Value of Hydropower 

 Goal 6 – Recreation 

Maintain and improve the quality of recreational experiences for 

the users of the Colorado River Ecosystem. Recreation includes, 

but is not limited to, flatwater and whitewater boating, river 

corridor camping, and angling in Glen Canyon 

6.1 – Economic Value of Recreation Experience 
Draft Metrics, continued 

 Goal 10 – Non-native aquatic species 

Minimize or reduce the presence and expansion of aquatic 

nonnative invasives. 

 10.1 - 10.4: Average number of “risky species” per 

Habitat Segment in Grand Canyon Ecosystem 

 10.5 - 10.8: Average number of “risky species” 

with evidence of recent recruitment per Habitat 

Segment in Grand Canyon Ecosystem 

 10.1, 10.5 = Low risk species 

 10.2, 10.6 = medium risk species 

 10.3, 10.7 = high risk 

 10.4, 10.8 = very high 
 

 

 

Draft Metrics, continued 

 Goal 11 – Riparian vegetation 

Maintain native vegetation and wildlife habitat, in various stages of 

maturity, such that they are diverse, healthy, productive, selfsustaining, and ecologically appropriate 

 11.1 Total Plant Cover 

 11.2 Native Plant Richness 

 11.3 Native to Non-native Plant Species Cover Ratio 
Goals/Metrics still under discussion 

 7. Sediment. Increase and retain fine sediment volume, area, 

and distribution in the Glen, Marble, and Grand Canyon reaches 

above the elevation of the average base flow for ecological, 

cultural, and recreational purposes. 

 Status: Internal agreement on 2 metrics; discussion ongoing re: 

3 other metrics 

 8. Tribal Resources. Maintain the diverse values and resources 

of traditionally associated Tribes along the Colorado River 

corridor through Glen, Marble, and Grand Canyons. 

 Status: No agreement on metrics; no change since April 2023. 
Goal 7: Sediment 

 Goal 7 Statement: Increase and retain fine sediment 

volume, area, and distribution in the Glen, Marble, and 

Grand Canyon reaches above the elevation of the average 

base flow for ecological, cultural, and recreational purposes. 

 Performance Metrics (agreed on): 

 Normalized Sand Bar Volume 

 Normalized Sand Bar Volume by Type 

 Other Metrics (not agreed on): 

 Sand supply by river segment (mass balance) 

 Turbidity 

 Mean sandbar response to HFEs 
Goal 8: Tribal Values & Resources 

 Goal 8 Statement: Maintain the diverse values and 

resources of traditionally associated Tribes along the 

Colorado River corridor through Glen, Marble, and 

Grand Canyons. 

 Can we define metrics around some shared values? 

 Respect 

 Responsibility (Stewardship) 

 Relationships 

 Reciprocity 
Next Steps 

 November-December 2023: GCMRC will meet 

with DOI agencies; revise and finalize draft report 

 January 2024: Final Draft of metrics sent to TWG 

and AMWG; GCMRC reports on draft metrics at 

Annual Reporting Meeting 

 February 2024: Consult with AMWG 

 March 2023: Finalize metrics report 
Questions? 

Questions? 

Confluence of the Colorado and Little Colorado Rivers 

Top: E. C. La Rue. August 13, 1923; Bottom: A.H. Fairley, May 2, 2018 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Metric Description Format 

Goal X Statement 

Background (sets stage and rational for selecting specific metrics) 

Conceptual diagram (shows “means variables” & “ecological drivers”) 

Metric X.1 (Metric Name) 

• Metric Type: direct observation/measurement, estimate based on model, etc. 

• Relevant Criteria: Describe how it relates to the established criteria for metrics 

• Data required: Data required to produce the metric 

• Metric calculation: How metric will be calculated 

• Frequency: How often will the metric be measured? 

• Presentation: How will the metric be presented (graphically; example provided) 

• Interpretation: How will metric be interpreted (historic range, trend, thresholds?) 

• Limitations and uncertainties of the metric 

• NEW Addition: Current status of metric