BUREAU OF RECLAMATION 

NAVAJO RESERVOIR COORDINATION MEETING 

April 18, 2023 

SUMMARY 

Dear Interested Party: 

Enclosed is a summary of our April 18th, 2023 meeting to coordinate Bureau of Reclamation’s 

(Reclamation) operation of the Navajo Unit. The meeting was virtually via Microsoft Teams 

video and by phone. 

Summary points of the meeting: 

 Precipitation in Water Year 2023 has been well-above average. 

 Runoff projections range from 800 kaf (127% of average) to 1170 kaf (186% of average) 

with a median of 945 kaf (150% of average) as of the April forecast. 

 A maintenance release of 150-180 kaf is being planned, peaking at 5,000 cfs for 7-10 

days. (Length may change as forecast evolves) 

 Reservoir is forecast to peak between 6060 and 6075 ft (depending on timing of runoff 

and release). (could be higher!) 

 End of water year (September 30th) reservoir elevation is projected to be 6050 to 6060 ft. 

 No DROA releases are planned. 

Copies of the material presented, and past meeting notes are available online at: 

http://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/nvd.html 

If you have any suggestions on improving the operation meetings or the summaries of the 

meetings, please let us know. 

Next meeting date: Tuesday, August 22, 2023 at 1:00 PM. This meeting is currently 

planned to be held in-person at the Farmington Civic Center, in Farmington, NM with a 

video and/or phone option for those who would like to attend virtually. This is subject to 

change based on the situation at the time. Please contact sbehery@usbr.gov for questions 

or updates. 
NAVAJO UNIT OPERATIONS MEETING 

April 18th, 2023 

Participation: This meeting was held virtually via Microsoft Teams. The attendance list is 

attached. 

Purpose of Meeting: The purpose of these meetings, held annually in January, April, and 

August, is to gather input for determining upcoming operations for Navajo Reservoir. This input 

is used in Reclamation’s development of an overall 24-month study for operation of Reclamation 

projects in the Upper Colorado River Basin, which includes plans for Glen Canyon, Flaming 

Gorge, Aspinall Unit and Navajo. Input from individuals, organizations, and agencies, along 

with other factors such as weather, water rights, endangered species requirements, flood control, 

hydro power, recreation, fish and wildlife management, and reservoir levels, will be considered 

in the development of these reservoir operation plans. In addition, the meetings are used to 

coordinate activities and exchange information among agencies, water users, and other interested 

parties concerning the San Juan River and Navajo Reservoir. 

WY 2023 Review of Operations to Date 

Susan Behery, Reclamation, Western Colorado Area Office 

Water Year 2023 began on October 1, 2022, with Navajo holding 871 kaf of live storage (245 

kaf active storage) at elevation 6020.56 ft. The Navajo Indian Irrigation Project (NIIP) diversion 

ended their diversions for the year on October 17th. The release to meet the downstream target 

baseflow (TBF) in the critical habitat reach has ranged between 300 and 350 cfs for the most of 

the winter. A temporary reduction to 250 cfs in March assisted instream work with Turley 

Manzanares ditch, downstream of the dam. 

Releases have managed to stay below average while maintaining the authorized purposes of the 

Reservoir and ESA commitments. The current reservoir storage is 175 kaf higher than at the 

beginning of the water year. Navajo Reservoir is 15-feet higher than it was this time last year. 

Around the basin, most reservoirs are gaining storage. As of the meeting date, McPhee holds 

232,443 af (61% of live storage) and is expected to fill with a significant release event for 

boating. Lake Nighthorse is at 114,658 af (100% of live storage) and is planned for topping off 

this spring (though it may not have to pump more than a couple of days). Lemon is at 18,089 af 

(45% of live storage) and is expected to fill. Vallecito is at 33,138 af (26% live storage) and has 

been making room for their expected inflow. Jackson is at 6506 af (65% of live storage). Navajo 

is at 1,015,846 af, or 62% of live storage (41% of active storage). 

Around the Upper Colorado River Drainage Basin: Flaming Gorge is 69% full, Blue Mesa is 

38% full, and Lake Powell is 23% full. 
Weather Outlook 

Erin Walter, National Weather Service, Grand Junction 

A significant dust event on April 3rd deposited on the San Juan mountains, the Uncompahgre 

plateau, the Grand Mesa and Dolores basin. Snowpack coverage at this time of year is still 

widespread and above-average. 

Short term temperatures in the headwaters are still hovering around freezing at night and are at or 

near average during daytime hours for the coming week. The 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts 

are showing the potential for above average temperatures in the Four Corners. However, a lot of 

variability exists right now in the day-to-day updates to the forecast, there is not much 

consistency. The CPC is showing potential for delayed onset of the monsoon, which may occur 

if late snowmelt maintains cooler temperatures, which could reduce development of ground 

heating and resulting storms. 

Currently we are in an El-Nino watch. If El Nino develops in the coming months, the traditional 

result is a wet southwest flow and cooler temperatures. 

Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) for the Water Year 2023 on the meeting date is183% of average 

in the San Juan Basin. Cumulative Water Year precipitation, which includes all rain/snow for the 

year, is 141% of average. 

Snowmelt and Streamflow Outlook 

Ashley Nielson, Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, Salt Lake City 

March precipitation made a big difference in the forecasts for the basin this year. Animas River 

Basin precipitation was 225% of average in March, and precipitation above Navajo Reservoir 

was 230% of average. Additionally cool temperature, well below average, were prevalent 

throughout the month. Current snowpack is above normal at all elevations this year. Snowmelt 

has begun over the last week at elevations below 11,000 cfs. 

Low elevation (below 9500 ft) snowmelt has impacted flows downstream in recent weeks. Not 

much melt yet at high elevations as of meeting date. 

Water supply forecasts for the San Juan basin range from 140% to 235% of average. A 

significant increase in snowpack in mid-March has pushed the forecasts towards the Maximum 

Probable of previous forecasts. The latest (Mid-April) April-July runoff forecast for Navajo 

Reservoir is 985 kaf (156% of average). 

The Animas River peak is currently forecast to be 6865 cfs, which is the 20th highest peak in 112 

years of record. The peak itself is entirely dependent on short-term weather, and can be much 

higher or lower depending on how the snowpack melts. River peaks around the basin are all 

expected to be well-above average this year. High water and flooding are a concern but will 

depend on snowmelt timing and pattern. 
Planned Operations for remainder of WY 2023 

Susan Behery – Reclamation, Western Colorado Area Office 

The latest (January 1st) CBRFC official Most Probable April-July runoff forecasts are as follows: 

Navajo: 945 kaf (150% avg*) 

Vallecito: 255 kaf (144% avg) 

Lemon: 77 kaf (160% avg) 

Animas: 590 kaf (153% avg) 

McPhee: 515 kaf (202% avg) 

Powell: 11,300 kaf (177% avg) 

*average of the 1991 – 2020 time period 

At this point, Ashley from CBRFC noted that the Mid-April CBRFC forecast at Navajo would be 

985 kaf and would be released in the next couple of days. Please note that at the time of the 

meeting, all information presented was based on the slightly lower forecast of 945 kaf from early 

April. 

Back in January, we presented the potential range of operations based on the range of forecasts 

we had at the time. The Max Probable forecast in January, which was just over 1,000,000 af for 

April-July, resulted in a spring peak release. The chances of a high release were low, but it was 

within the range of possibilities. The winter snowpack built aggressively and resulted in a 

forecast very near the Max Probable from January. 

While the available water is not sufficient for the specific SJRIP-recommended 21-day spring 

peak release as described in the SJRIP’s Flow Recommendations (1999, updated 2018), there is 

sufficient available water to conduct a maintenance release. The intended purpose of such a 

release is to clear sediment from and define the channel, and meet ESA flow goals as possible, as 

per Reclamation’s Record of Decision (2006). The last high flow release from Navajo was in 

2019. 

The specific details of the release will be forthcoming, as the forecast and runoff unfolds. 

Because of the large quantity of sediment in the channel, and after discussion with Federal, State 

and Local agencies, it is expected that a significant ramp-up may be required to reach 5,000 cfs. 

The most likely release will begin in mid-to-late May, with a long slow ramp-up to 5,000 cfs, 7-

10 days at 5,000 cfs, and then a ramp back down to base releases. 

Note that the peak of the release may be longer than 7-10 days. 

A question about the spillway was asked. Navajo’s spillway is an “uncontrolled” spillway, 

meaning there is no gate. All operations are designed and and intended to avoid use of the 

spillway. The last time the spillway was used was in the late 1970’s. 

Notices for plans will be sent out to this email list and posted to our website as plans are 

developed. Coordination will be set up with appropriate Federal, State, and Local agencies. 

Drought Response Operations Plan (DROA): 
DROA Year 2023 is May 1, 2023 – April 30, 2024. No releases are planned at this time. The 

Initial Unit Workgroups (Navajo, Flaming Gorge, Aspinall) have begun meeting to update 

Attachments that are part of the DROA Plan. Navajo Unit is under “Attachment 

E”. DROA webpage: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html 

San Juan River Recovery Implementation Program (SJRIP) Update 

Raphaela Ware, SJRIP 

The San Juan River Basin Recovery Implementation Program has the following recommendation 

to Reclamation for Spring Operations: 

 

“Given the above average runoff predicted for the Animas River in 2023, the SJRIP 

recommends Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) use the forecasted Available Water for 

Navajo Reservoir to conduct a release to meet the Animas River peak, even if Available 

Water is less than needed for the Flow Recommendation’s 21-day release.

We recommend Reclamation release a minimum of 7 days at 5,000 cfs if Animas River runoff 

peak is projected to be sufficient to meet SJRIP Flow Recommendations’ 5-days at 10,000 cfs 

or 10-days at 8,000 cfs flow targets. During the release, if the Animas River is no longer 

contributing enough to meet these targets, we recommend the release be ramped down to 

reach target baseflows and save the remaining water.”

The next Biology Committee (BC), Coordination Committee (CC), and Annual meeting is 

scheduled for May 9-10. The BC meeting will take place May 9 at Fort Lewis College in 

Durango and the Annual and CC meeting will take place on May 10th, at the Durango Public 

Library. The meetings will be in hybrid format. For more information or a link to the meetings 

please email james_sykes@fws.gov. 

Please visit https://coloradoriverrecovery.org/ for meeting sign up and to learn more about the 

Colorado River Recovery Program; this is the public facing website. 

NMISC and TNC subcontract with Jicarilla Apache Nation 

Colleen Cunningham, NMISC and Joe Trungale, TNC 

NMISC obtained a permit to release up to 20,000 AF of water annually from Navajo Reservoir 

into the San Juan River beginning in 2023. Water was obtained for up to 10 yrs from the JAN 

through a lease agreement with the NMISC and TNC. Permitted water would meet the purposes 

of the Strategic Water Reserve. Water is for compact compliance and endangered species 

management. The leased water was previously diverted by PNM at the PNM Weir in Fruitland, 

NM. Parties of the agreement sought to identify alternative uses of this water to provide the most 

benefit to the endangered Colorado pikeminnow and the razorback sucker. 

A Technical Team consisting of representatives of the NMISC, JAN, and 

TNC was assembled to identify alternative uses for this water. The Team elicited input from 14 
experts in hydrology, geomorphology, and fisheries with direct knowledge of the San Juan River. 

The Team conferred with Reclamation to better understand 

dam operations 

Three alternatives were examined: 

• Supplement Winter Releases (Jan-May) 

• Supplement a Spring Peak (May-Jun) 

• Supplement Summer Baseflow (Jul-Sep) 

Initial 2023 Release Decision is to apply to spring peak if 20K tips the scale to make a release. If 

not, supplement summer baseflow to benefit rearing habitats. Justification: 

• Low velocity rearing habitats critical limiting factor for RBS/CPM 

• High spring flow critical to create/maintain habitat, but low likelihood 

• Baseflow supplement provides “biggest bang for the buck” 

Waiting for more details on the volume and duration of the spring “maintenance” release. Will 

decide on augmenting a spring release versus summer baseflow in the next few weeks. 

Agency Updates 

City of Farmington: Jamie Shockey requests that Reclamation get with them soon to discuss and 

plan ramp-up to help the Power Plant anticipate the load. 

Bloomfield Irrigation District: Stacy requests that Reclamation give a bit of extra notice to help 

them have time to prepare their berm. 

Navajo Agricultural Products Incorporated (NAPI): Diversions will increase in coming weeks. 

Turley Manzanares Ditch Company: Construction at the ditch has completed successfully. 

Links 

 Navajo Project Notices: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/wcao/water/rsvrs/notice/nav_rel.html

 Navajo Monthly Forecast Update: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/nvd.html

 Reclamation Colorado River Basin Facebook Page: 

https://www.facebook.com/coloradoriverbasin

 UC Water Operations Home: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/index.html

 DROA: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html

 
Attendance 

Aaron Chavez San Juan Water Commission

Adrienne Soder Arizona Public Service  

Ali Effati NMISC

Anna Boynton State Tribal Liaison, Utah Division of Emergency Management

Anna Dunn CONTR

Ashley Nielson CBRFC

Bart Deming Reclamation FCCO

Becki Bryant Bureau of Reclamation

Bill Neyman

Brandon Talley Bureau of Reclamation

Brandt Hart BLM Utah River Ranger

Brent Zundel

Cameron Corley APS, Four Corners Power Plant

Carrie Bean Monticello BLM Office, San Juan River Permit Desk

Carrie Padgett   SWCD

Catherine Galvan City of Bloomfield

Chad Niehaus BLM San Juan River Ranger

Chico Quintana Reclamation FCCO

Christina Noftsker NMISC

Clay Cady Arizona Public Service  

Clayton Johnston Turley Manzanares

Cole Glenn The San Juan Angler

Colleen Cunningham NMISC

Conor Felletter Bureau of Reclamation

Crystal Tulley‐Cordova Navajo Nation Department of Water Resources

David Archuleta

David Gerg San Juan Fly Fishing Federation

David Shoultz NTUA, NGWSP Op’s Manager

Delgarito Reynalden USACE Albuquerque

Devin Neely San Juan County

Dex Lewis Reclamation FCCO

Dominique Work NMISC

Doug Abe PRCA

Ed Tso NDEM

Elizabeth Serrano Bloomfield Irrigation District

Erik Knight Reclamation WCAO

Erin Walter National Weather Service, Grand Junction

Evelyn Archuleta No affiliation

Fisherman

Fletcher Brinkerhoff USGS

Heather Patno Reclamation

Helen Sobien NMISC

Jacob Mazzone Jicarilla Apache Nation
Jamie Shockey City of Farmington

Jason Davis US Fish & Wildlife Service, Southwest Region

Jason Sullivan RSI

Jeanette Joe NAPI

Jeff Derry Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies

Jen Dumas Jicarilla Apache Nation

Jenny Erickson Bureau of Reclamation WCAO

Jim Dumont Senator Martin Heinrich's Office

Joe Rasor Land Owner

John Hall

John Utton

Joseph Trungale The Nature Conservancy

Julie Rasor Land Owner

Justyn Liff Reclamation

Kathi Smith Hammond Conservancy District

Les Larson Hillside Irrigation District

Lionel Haskie NAPI

Luanne Hook

Marc Miller Reclamation WCAO

Linda Corwin Bloomfield, NM

Marc Wethington New Mexico Game and Fish

Melissa Mata San Juan River Recovery Implementation Program

Mike Stark

Miles Juett NMOSE

Moncef Tihami Reclamation FCCO

Myron Armijo

Nathaniel Todea Reclamation

Norman Norvelle Retired NMED Environmental Specialist

Pat Page Local Human

Pauline Ellis Fiver Rivers TU

Philp Richards APS

Prudence Brady City of Bloomfield

Raphaela Ware San Juan River Basin Recovery Implementation Program

Reece Carpenter Bureau of Reclamation

Renae Pablo NAPI

Reynalden Delgarito USACE

Robert Kirk Navajo Nation

Robert Sterrett Farmington Fire

Robert Wormuth Turley Manzanares

Rochelle Brown City of Farmington

Ryan Gladden Reclamation

Ryan Seamus Royer Reclamation FCCO

Ryan Unterreiner Colorado Parks & Wildlife

Scott Miller APS

Shannon Ben City of Farmington
Shannon Hatch Bureau of Reclamation

Shawn Williams NMOSE

Shrestha Sanskriti Keller‐Bliesner Engineering

Stacy Dodd Bloomfield Irrigation District

Susan Behery Reclamation

Tammy Gallegos San Juan County Utah

Tom Chart Grand River Consulting, Water User Rep to SJRIP BC

Tom McCarthy

Trevor Birt NMISC