Navajo Unit Operations

Coordination Meeting

January 17th, 2023

1:00 PM

Virtual Meeting via Microsoft Teams
•Introductions

•WY 2023 Review of operations to date 

•Weather and Streamflow Forecast – Ashley Nielson, CBRFC

•WY 2023 planned operations

•Comments and Reports

Agenda
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6022

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Pool Eleva�on (�)

Flow (cfs)

Navajo Reservoir Opera�ons WY 2023

Pool Eleva�on (�) Inflow (cfs) Release To River (cfs) NIIP (cfs)
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Flow (cfs)

San Juan River Flows WY 2023

San Juan at Shiprock (cfs) San Juan at 4C (cfs) San Juan at Bluff (cfs)

San Juan at Farmington (cfs) Animas at Farmington (cfs) Navajo Release (cfs)
Reclamation Hydro Data 

https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/hydrodata/reservoir_data/site_map.html
Reclamation Hydro Data 

https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/hydrodata/reservoir_data/site_map.html
Reclamation Hydro Data 

https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/hydrodata/reservoir_data/site_map.html
Reclamation Hydro Data 

https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/hydrodata/reservoir_data/site_map.html

THIS TIME LAST YEAR

Navajo Reservoir/San Juan Basin

Water Supply Outlook

January 2023

Ashley Nielson

Senior Hydrologist

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center

National Weather Service/NOAA
Water Year 2022:July-September Observed Precipitation

July August September 

Animas River Basin: 165%

Above Navajo Reservoir: 220% 

Animas River Basin: 85%

Above Navajo Reservoir: 90% 

Animas River Basin: 90%

Above Navajo Reservoir: 85%

Observed precipitation is averaged by CBRFC defined basin elevation zones.
2020

Monsoon: July-September Precipitation

2021

2022 June 2022 Precipitation

Animas River Basin: 365%

Above Navajo Reservoir: 450%
Water Year 2023: Observed Precipitation

October November 

Animas River Basin: 95%

Above Navajo Reservoir: 95%

Animas River Basin: 65%

Above Navajo Reservoir: 65%

Observed precipitation is averaged by CBRFC defined basin elevation zones.
Water Year 2023: Observed Precipitation

December January 1-16 

Animas River Basin: 230%

Above Navajo Reservoir: 205%

Animas River Basin: 110%

Above Navajo Reservoir: 130%

Observed precipitation is averaged by CBRFC defined basin elevation zones.

Water Year to Date:Oct 1 - Jan 16
Drought Conditions: U.S Drought Monitor
Upper Colorado River: Fall 2022 Model Soil Moisture Conditions

The map shows the model soil moisture conditions from the lower soil zone 

in CBRFC’s hydrologic model. This zone represents the source of 

longer-term (weeks-to-years streamflow).

Modeled lower zone soil water content is a result of past hydrologic 

conditions including but not limited to:

-previous year(s) runoff

-summer/fall precipitation

Soil moisture content is adjusted every fall during a dry period after 

irrigation season has ended and before winter. Forecasters use the 

following data to make adjustments:

-Early November streamflow observations (baseflow)

-Reservoir inflows

-July-October precipitation

-Past season(s) runoff conditions

CBRFC model soil moisture conditions are near to below normal 

across many of the major runoff producing areas.
Fall 2021 Fall 2022 % Change: 2021-2022

Fall Modeled Soil Moisture Conditions

Soil Moisture Impacts:

1. Water Supply Forecasts

● Below average conditions= lower forecasts

● Above average conditions= higher forecasts

 2. Spring Runoff Efficiency

● Soil moisture deficit must be fulfilled before runoff can occur.

● Degree of impact is uncertain in every year.

● Timing/magnitude of runoff is ultimately a result of:

■ Spring Weather (precipitation/temperature)

■ Snow Conditions

■ Soil Moisture Conditions

■ Dust conditions

San Juan River Basin: Fall 2022 Model Soil Moisture Conditions

Soil moisture conditions have improved for most runoff producing

areas in the San Juan River Basin since last fall. Conditions are 

below normal to near normal across the basin.

Soil moisture deficits still exist but are less than in previous years. 

Model soil moisture is averaged by major contributing area within a basin. 
Snow Conditions: SNOTELS and CBRFC Model Snow Water Equivalent

January 16, 2023

*Only areas above ~9000 ft that are significant to runoff

Model snow includes areas above and below SNOTEL sites.

● SNOTEL locations range from ~8,500-11,500’ 

● Some modeled basins extend to over 13,000’

Jan 1: 93% 

Jan 16:126%

Jan 1: 103% 

Jan 16: 133%
April-July Forecasts

Volume in 1000’s acre-feet / Percent of 1991-2020 average

January 2023 Water Supply Forecasts: San Juan River Basin 

January 1st Forecast Range: 85-100% of average

Mid-January Model Guidance Forecast Range: 90-125% of average

San Juan-Bluff

1000 / 90%

Vallecito

 170 / 96%

Animas-Durango

385 / 100%

Navajo

 570 / 90%

San JuanPagosa Springs

185 / 95%

April-July Volumes (kaf) / % of avg
90% chance of exceeding 385 KAF / 60% avg

10% chance of NOT exceeding 385 KAF / 60% avg

Blue shading: Daily Raw Model Guidance 90% - 10% exceedance range

Blue line: Daily Raw Model Guidance 50% exceedance

Pink line: Official forecast 90%, 70%, 50%, 30%, 10% exceedance

Green solid: 1991-2020 average April-July volume

Green dotted: 1991-2020 median April-July volume

Brown dotted: Average observed 

• The forecast has increased since January 1st due to wet conditions.

• If the forecast precipitation from the next storm system verifies, the 

forecast will continue to increase.

• Still early in the water supply season. 

Navajo Inflow Forecast Plot Link

Forecast Progression: Navajo Reservoir Inflow: 

50% chance of exceeding 608 KAF / 97% avg

50% chance of NOT exceeding 608 KAF / 97% avg

Jan 1: 570 KAF/90%

 Jan 16 w/next storm: 672 KAF/118%

10% chance of exceeding 1010 KAF / 160% avg

90% chance of NOT exceeding 1010 KAF / 160% avg

NOTE: 20% chance that the April-July runoff will 

fall outside of the forecast range.

Jan 2022 Fcst: 550 KAF / 87%

2022 Runoff : 382 KAF / 61% 
January 1st Forecast:

What we know:

• ~40% of snowpack accumulation

• Fall soil moisture conditions

What we DON’T know:

• Jan-May weather (4 months)

• ~60% of snowpack accumulation

•

Navajo Reservoir:

Average January Forecast Error: ~200 KAF

April 1st Forecast:

What we KNOW:

• ~98% of snowpack accumulation

• Dec-March weather

What we don’t know:

• April-May weather (2 months)

• Snowmelt pattern

Navajo Reservoir:

Average April Forecast Error: ~100 KAF

Early Season Forecast Uncertainty

January 1

April 1
The storm system currently over the

area will continue to bring precipitation

through at least Wednesday morning.

Models are indicating another system

late in the week/early weekend but are

still lacking agreement in the details.

Days 1-7

Future Weather: January 16-24 Forecast Precipitation
Future Weather: January 24-30 
Climate Prediction Center: Seasonal (JFM) Outlook
• Soil moisture

• Conditions have improved from last year and are below to near normal.

• Soil moisture deficits still exist.

• Impact on runoff uncertain and will depend on spring weather and snow conditions.

• Snow

• Snow conditions have improved since early January due to a favorable weather pattern.

• Above median conditions as of mid-January

• Mid-January is a little less than halfway (~40-50%) through the snow accumulation season 

■ Still early in the snow season

• January Water Supply Forecasts

• Forecasts range from:

■ Early-January: 85-100% of average

■ Mid-January: 90-125% of average

• Forecast guidance has increased since early January.

• Expect an increase in February forecasts.

• Upcoming Weather

• Active weather pattern looks to continue through the end of the month.

• Shift in pattern to colder storm systems. 

Summary
Contact Info

Contact Information

• Ashley Nielson - San Juan River Forecaster

• ashley.nielson@noaa.gov

• 801-524-5130 x333 

• Operational Hydrologist: in office

• 801-524-4004

• cbrfc.operations@noaa.gov

CBRFC Webpage

https://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/

CBRFC Water Supply Presentations

https://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/present/present.php

Contact Info:
Official

Water Supply Forecast

(April-July)

Navajo: 570 kaf (90%* avg)

Vallecito: 170 kaf (96% avg)

Lemon: 48 kaf (100% avg)

Animas: 385 kaf (100% avg)

McPhee: 260 kaf (102% avg)

Powell: 6,700 kaf (105% avg)

*average of the 1991 – 2020 time period 
Official

Water Supply Forecast

(April-July)

Navajo: 550 kaf (87%* avg)

Vallecito: 155 kaf (88% avg)

Lemon: 42 kaf (88% avg)

Animas: 360 kaf (94% avg)

McPhee: 235 kaf (92% avg)

Powell: 6,300 kaf (99% avg)

*average of the 1991 – 2020 time period 

THIS TIME LAST YEAR
• Project managers for the Turley Manzanares Ditch Company 

Diversion Dam Rehabilitation Project are planning to request a 

reduction in the release to 250 cfs for several days this winter for 

instream work (Dates TBD).

• The City of Farmington Power Plant will take this opportunity to do 

maintenance as they will not be able to generate power. 

• The release will be through the Auxiliary 4x4 during this time.

• Anticipated project completion date is April 1, 2023. 

• Contact information for the project will be available in the meeting 

notes.

Reduced release for instream work
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Release (cfs)

Reservoir Eleva�on (�)

Navajo Reservoir Forecast Eleva�on and Release

as of January 2023 24-Month Study

Release based on Min Probable Forecast Release based on Most Probable Forecast

Release based on Max Probable Forecast Reservoir Eleva�on based on Min Probable Forecast

Reservoir Eleva�on based on Most Probable Forecast Reservoir Eleva�on based on Max Probable Forecast

September 30, 2023

Max Probable 6050 �

Most Probable 6039 �

Min Probable 6009 �

WY-2023

Spring Opera�ons

Max Probable: 27-day SPR*

Most Probable: No SPR

Min Probable: No SPR

WY-2023

Peak Reservoir Eleva�ons

Max Probable 6051 �

Most Probable 6046 �

Min Probable 6035 �

WY-2023

MIN probable min

eleva�on of 6008 �



Based on current streamflow conditions, storage levels, and statistical 

outlooks based on 30 years of historical hydrology,

• Runoff projections range from 385 kaf (61% avg) – 1,010 kaf (161% 

avg) with a median projection of 570 kaf (91% avg).

• Potential for a spring peak release under the Max Probable forecast. 

No spring peak under Min or Most Prob forecast.

• Reservoir forecast to peak between 6035 and 6051 ft in spring with a 

median projection of 6046 ft

• End of Water Year storage range 771 kaf (6009 ft, 47% full) – 1,200 kaf 

(6050 ft, 73% full) with a median projection of 1,040 kaf (6038 ft, 63% 

full)

Projected Operations WY 2023
• Drought Response Operations Plan (DROA)- releases from Initial 

Units to Lake Powell

• No decisions have been made yet regarding releases

• Meetings and discussions are ongoing regarding any potential DROA 

releases, accounting, and recovery

• Will have more information by the April Meeting

• Updates from the State of NM

Projected Operations WY 2023
SJRIP Update

For more information, please contact

james_sykes@fws.gov
• Navajo Project Notices: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/wcao/water/rsvrs/notice/nav_rel.html

• Navajo Monthly Forecast Update: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/nvd.html

• UC Water Operations Home: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/index.html

• Teacups: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/basin/index.html

• 24-Month Study: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/index.html

• DROA: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html

Links

Next Meeting April 18th or 25th 2023 (?)
Reclamation Contacts:

Marc Miller – Water Management Group Chief

970-385-6541 mbmiller@usbr.gov

Susan Novak Behery – Hydrologic Engineer

970-385-6560 sbehery@usbr.gov

To be added to Navajo Dam notices email list, send an email to 

westcoloareaoffice@usbr.gov 

Useful Links

Reclamation: www.usbr.gov/uc

USGS: water.usgs.gov/nwis

CBRFC: cbrfc.noaa.gov