U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey

Economic value of angling on the Colorado 

River at Lees Ferry: Using secondary data to 

estimate the influence of seasonality

Lucas Bair, U.S. Geological Survey

David Rogowski, Arizona Game and Fish Department

Chris Neher, University of Montana

U. S. Department of Interior

U.S. Geological Survey
Study Objective

• Estimate the economic value of angling at Lees 

Ferry and identify angler preferences that 

influence the value attributed to the experience.

• Richards and Wood (1985) and Bishop et al. (1987)

• Changes over three decades

– Flow regime

– Fishery characteristics 

– Regulation 
Presentation Outline

• Economic method used to estimate the value 

of nonmarket goods and services

• Arizona Game & Fish Dept. (AGFD) creel 

survey

• Study area and research methods

• Results from the study

• Conclusion and ongoing research
Estimating Economic Value

• Nonmarket goods and 

service 

– Unobservable market 

behavior

• Revealed or stated 

preference methods

• Revealed preference: 

travel cost method

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

0 5,000 10,000 15,000

Added Distance (miles)

Total Trips Per Year
Estimating a Demand Function

• Quantity of recreation (trips per year)

• cost (or price) of participation

• cost (or price) of substitute opportunities

• socioeconomic characteristics (e.g., income, 

education, age)

• Secondary data used to identify individual 

trips per year, travel cost, and proxies for 

substitute angling opportunities and 

socioeconomic information
Arizona Game and Fish 

Department Creel Survey

• Data collected from 2012 – 2014

• Sample size of 2,189

• Individual observation travel cost model

AZGFD 2015 Lees Ferry Access Point Creel Survey

Page: _____ of _____

Clerk: Start Time: Trailer Count: Anglers Missed: Comments:

Date: End Time: Boat Count: Anglers 

Declined:

People Count Guide Fishing duration Gear Fish Total Catch Satisfaction Trips/ Creel Size Opinion

Int# Juv Adu Ret Y/N Zip Code Start

Intervie

w F/S Spp Catch Harvest >18 1-5 year 2015? 

10@10

"

2@18

"

Name: Address: Gender: Ethnicity:
Lees Ferry Access Point (boat ramp)


Lees Ferry Walk-in Area



Descriptive Statistics

Variable Description Aggregate 

Sample

Guided at 

Access Point

Non-guided at 

Access Point

Walk-in 

Above Paria

Walk-in 

Below Paria

Annual trips Number of angling trips to Lees 

Ferry in the past 12 months 3.28 1.7 4.3 3.6 5.4

Travel cost Round trip road miles * $0.14 + 

$15 (vehicle) +$16 (watercraft) - $137 $63 $103 $38

Income Annual income by zip code of 

residence (thousand dollars) $62 $68 $61 $61 $48

Substitute angling 

opportunities

Percentage of total US trout 

fishing days by state of residence 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Age =1 if categorized as retired; =0 if 

adult 42% 52% 37% 37% 15%

Catch per unit effort Continuous variable of catch per 

hour of fishing 1.81 2.42 1.69 1.14 0.65

Fly

=1 if gear categorized as fly 

fishing; =0 if other (spinner and 

bait)

70% 89% 54% 92% 12%

Highway 89 closure =1 if U.S Highway 89 was closed; 

=0 if U.S Highway 89 was open 62% 62% 62% 52% 84%

Spring =0 if categorized as spring 52% 61% 42% 61% 33%

Summer =1 if categorized as summer 15% 13% 14% 4% 48%

Fall =1 if categorized as fall 16% 13% 21% 16% 6%

Winter =1 if categorized as winter 18% 14% 22% 18% 13%
1.7

4.3

3.6

5.4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Guided

Access Point

Non-guided

Access Point

Walk-in

Above Paria

Walk-in Below

Paria

Angling trips to Lees Ferry 

in past 12 months

$137

$63

$103

$38

$0

$40

$80

$120

$160

Guided

Access Point

Non-guided

Access Point

Walk-in

Above Paria

Walk-in

Below Paria

Travel Cost 

(round trip road miles * $0.14)

$68

$61 $61

$48

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

Guided

Access Point

Non-guided

Access Point

Walk-in

Above Paria

Walk-in

Below Paria

Annual income by zip code 

of residence (thousand dollars)

52%

37% 37%

15%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Guided

Access Point

Non-guided

Access Point

Walk-in

Above Paria

Walk-in

Below Paria

Percent of anglers 

categorized as retired
[map]

Average Annual Trips

 1

 1 – 3 

 3 – 50 

Angler Visitation by Area

(n=836) (n=820)

(n=336) (n=171)
Visitation by Season

Guided at 

Access Point

Non-guided at 

Access Point

Walk-in Above 

Paria

Walk-in Below 

Paria

Fall

27%

Spring

40% Summer

17%

Winter

15%

Fall

24%

Spring

43%

Summer

14%

Winter

20%

Fall

30%

Spring

24%

Summer

19%

Winter

27%

Fall

13%

Spring

26%

Summer

42%

Winter

19%
Average Annual Trips

 1

 1 – 3 

 3 – 50 

Guided Visitation by Season

(n=524) (n=110)

(n=119) (n=110)
Average Annual Trips

 1

 1 – 3 

 3 – 50 

Non-guided Visitation by Season

(n=348) (n=116)

(n=174) (n=182)
Average Annual Trips

 1

 1 – 3 

 3 – 50 

Above Paria Visitation by Season

(n=205) (n=14)

(n=61) (n=55)
Average Annual Trips

 1

 1 – 3 

 3 – 50 

Below Paria Visitation by Season

(n=56) (n=82)

(n=23) (n=10)
Statistical Model*

Table 2: Zero-truncated negative binomial model results (estimated regression coefficients) for the number 

of angling trips per year by angler type for the Lees Ferry trout fishery (2012-2014).

Aggregate 

Model

Guided at 

Access Point

Non-guided at 

Access Point

Walk-in Above 

Paria

Walk-in Below 

Paria

Constant -1.566*** -0.055 -2.932*** -2.083** 0.889

Travel Cost -0.005*** -0.007*** -0.007*** -0.004*** -0.015***

Substitutea-13.566*** -9.842** -6.637** -18.913*** 6.253

Income -0.009*** -0.007*** -0.003 -0.018*** -0.029***

Age 0.232*** 0.480*** 0.209** 0.173 -0.623

Catch-per-Unit-Effort 0.172*** 0.159*** 0.147*** 0.185*** 0.178

Fly gear 0.184*** -0.339** 0.362*** 0.459* 0.467

Highway 89 0.196*** 0.205 0.246*** 0.285* -1.207***

Summer 0.504*** -0.391* -0.058 0.999*** 0.768***

Fall 0.059 0.320** 0.043 0.171 0.437

Winter -0.029 0.820*** 0.007 0.122 0.540*

Summer interaction b-0.002*** - - - -

Fall interaction b0.001 - - - -

Winter interaction b0.002*** - - - -

Alpha (α) 21.621*** 11.610*** 67.142* 38.813 18.128*

Expected annual trips 2.39 1.45 3.73 2.93 4.53

Sample size 2,189 863 820 335 171

a

The substitute coefficient is the change in annual trips relative to a percentage change alternative trout 

angling opportunities

b Interaction terms are season (summer, fall, winter)*(travel cost) 

*p<0.1, **p<0.05, ***p<0.01 *Preliminary data, do not cite
Determinants of Demand*

• Travel Cost Annual Trips

• Substitutes Annual Trips

• Income Annual Trips

• Age Annual Trip

*Preliminary data, do not cite
• Average economic benefit per trip

– $221 per trip

• Richards and Wood (1985)

– $632 - $889 per trip for non-trophy and trophy 

anglers, respectively

• Bishop et al. (1987)

– $225 - $281 per trip for fluctuating and constant 

flows, respectively

Economic Benefit Estimates*

*Preliminary data, do not cite
$211 

$148 

$244 

$341 

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

Spring Summer Fall Winter

Estimmated Economic Benefit

per Trip

Seasonal Economic Benefits*

Bootstrapped aggregate model seasonal benefit estimates at Lees Ferry 

with confidence intervals at the 95% level (2014 dollars)

*Preliminary data, do not cite
$161 

$134 

$232 

$65 

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

Access Point

Guided

Access Point

Non-guided

Walk-in Above

Paria

Walk-in Below

Paria

Estimmated Economic Benefit

per Trip

Economic Benefits by Area*

Bootstrapped angler user type benefit estimates at Lees Ferry with confidence 

intervals at the 95% level (2014 dollars)

*Preliminary data, do not cite
Conclusion

• Demand for angling at Lees Ferry varies by 

access location and season

• Future research

– River flows

– Fishery quality

– Regional economy
Ongoing Research

• Angler stated preference survey

• Whitewater floater stated preference survey

– Private

– Commercial
• Acknowledgements

– AGFD staff Pilar Wolters, Michael Mishler, Damon 

Peterson, Jackson Pickett, Robin Osterhoudt, Mike 

Anderson, Kristy Manuell and Steve Harding

– GIS analysis by Thomas Gushue with USGS; 

manuscript comments provided by Scott 

VanderKooi and Leslie Richardson with USGS 

• Questions

• lbair@usgs.gov

 928-556-7362