Navajo Unit Operations

Coordination Meeting

January 18th, 2022 1:00 PM

Microsoft Teams Virtual Meeting
See more about Glen Canyon Operations here: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/gcd.html
See more about Lake Mead operations here https://www.usbr.gov/lc/riverops.html



Reclamation Teacup Diagrams

https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/basin/index.html
Weather Outlook

January 2022

Aldis Strautins

National Weather Service

Grand Junction, CO

http://www.weather.gov/gjt
The Past

January 2022

Water Year 2021

Temperature

Departure from normal

Precipitation

% of normal
The Past

January 2022

Water Year 2022 through mid January

Temperature

Departure from normal

Precipitation

% of normal
The Past

January 2022

SWE

November 2021

SWE

December 2021

SNOTEL – Percent of Median
The Past

January 2022

Precipitation

November 2021

Precipitation

December 2021

Percent of Normal - Monthly QPE
The Past

January 2022

December 2021

Temperature

Departure from normal

Precipitation

% of normal
The Past

January 2022

January 2022 so far

Temperature

Departure from normal

Precipitation

% of normal
Snow

January 2022

SNOTEL Snow Water Equivalent – NRCS

Southwestern Colorado

124% of 

Normal

Yay...Late 

December 

Snow

Increased 

from 5in 

to over 

10in 

(SWE) 
Drought

January 2022

Jan 2022 Jan 2021

Drought – Monitor
Season La Niña Neutral El Niño

DJF 100 0 0

JFM 95 5 0

FMA 83 17 0

MAM 67 33 0

AMJ 48 51 1

MJJ 36 57 7

JJA 30 56 14

JAS 29 49 22

ASO 30 45 25

ENSO

January 2022

CPC/IRI Early-Month Consensus ENSO Forecast 

Probabilities

(using NWS CPC classification system)

ENSO – Outlook

La Nina becoming Neutral this spring
Weather Outlook

January 2022

El Nino La Nina

North of Colorado - Dry and Warm 

South of Colorado - Wet and Cool 

North of Colorado - Wet and Cool 

South of Colorado - Dry and Warm 
Weather Outlook

January 2022

WPC 7-Day Precipitation Outlook

Accumulation period from Jan 15-22
Weather Outlook

January 2022

Temperature Precipitation

Feb/Mar/Apr – Outlook
Weather Outlook

January 2022

Temperature Precipitation

Mar/Apr/May – Outlook
Weather Outlook

January 2022

Temperature Precipitation

Apr/May/Jun – Outlook
Weather Outlook

January 2022

Seasonal

Drought– Outlook
2019

2020

2021

The 2021 monsoon season was much wetter than recent 

years, especially across southern Arizona and central Utah.

In the San Juan basin, the 2021 monsoon season was near 

to slightly below normal.

Monsoon: July-September Precipitation
October-December Precipitation

October November December 
● Two consecutive years of below normal spring runoff

● Some improvement to conditions from July and October precipitation.

● Streamflow conditions have improved from last year in most basins, with some 

exceptions, but are still below to much below normal.

● An average 2021 monsoon can not make up for multiple years of near/record dry 

conditions.

Streamflow Conditions

Monsoon Monsoon Monsoon Monsoon
Fall 2020 Fall 2021 % Change: 2021-2020

Fall Modeled Soil Moisture Conditions: 2020 vs. 2021 

CBRFC Modeled Soil Moisture:

● Represents the deep soil layer

● Source of longer-term (weeks to years) streamflow 

● Impacts water supply forecasts

○ Below average conditions = lower forecasts

○ Above average conditions = higher forecasts

● Soil moisture conditions have improved from record/near record dry levels last year but remain below normal across the majority of the San Juan 

River Basin.

● Soil moisture conditions can impact spring runoff efficiency

○ Degree of impact is uncertain in every year

○ Timing/magnitude of runoff is ultimately a result of spring weather (precipitation/temperature), snow and soil moisture conditions. 
January 17, 2022

*Only areas above 9000 ft that are significant to runoff

Model snow includes areas above and below SNOTEL sites.

● SNOTEL locations range from ~8,500-11,500’ 

● Some modeled basins extend to over 13,000’

Upper Model SWE Median (11,000’-13,800’+)

Upper 2022 Model SWE (11,000’-13,800’+) 

Lower Model SWE Median (9,000’-11,000’)

Lower 2022 Model SWE (9,000’-11,000’)

● Snow accumulation had a slow start at all elevations

○ Warm and dry November

● SWE conditions above 11,000’ are below normal

○ Eastern headwaters have near normal conditions above 11,000’

● SWE conditions below 11,000’ are normal to above normal.

● Still early in the snow accumulation season.

Snow Conditions: CBRFC Model Snow Water Equivalent
1981-2010 vs 1991-2020 Averages: San Juan River Basin

● Averages are updated every 10 years

● Conforms to World Meteorological Organization 

standards

● New averages represent most recent trends

● Averages in the San Juan River basin 

decreased by 10-20% 

● Water supply forecasted/observed volumes will 

will be higher as a percent of average compared 

to the same volume last year.

Apr-Jul Fcst 1981-2010 1991-2020

(KAF) (735 KAF) (630 KAF)

10% 995 134% 158%

50% 550 75% 87%

90% 375 51% 60%

Navajo Forecast - Comparison of Period Normal %Avg
April-July Forecasts

Volume in 1000’s acre-feet / Percent of 1991-2020 average

January 2021 Water Supply Forecasts: San Juan River Basin 

April-July Volumes (kaf) / % of avg

San Juan-Bluff

900 / 81%

Vallecito

155 / 88%

Animas-Durango

360 / 94%

Navajo

550 / 87%

San JuanPagosa Springs

183 / 94%

Forecast Range is 85-90% of average
90% chance of exceeding 375 KAF / 60% avg

10% chance of NOT exceeding 375 KAF / 60% avg

Blue shading: Daily Raw Model Guidance 90% - 10% exceedance range

Blue line: Daily Raw Model Guidance 50% exceedance

Pink line: Official forecast 90%, 70%, 50%, 30%, 10% exceedance

Green solid: 1991-2020 average April-July volume

Green dotted: 1991-2020 median April-July volume

Brown dotted: Average observed

• The forecast has decreased since Jan 1 due to dry conditions.

• The forecast will likely continue to decrease through the end of the 

month.

Navajo Inflow Forecast Plot Link

Forecast Progression: Navajo Reservoir Inflow

50% chance of exceeding 508 KAF / 81% avg

50% chance of NOT exceeding 508 KAF / 81% avg

10% chance of exceeding 995 KAF / 158% avg

90% chance of NOT exceeding 995 KAF / 158% avg
January 1st Forecast:

What we know:

• ~40% of snowpack accumulation

• Fall soil moisture conditions

What we DON’T know:

• Jan-May weather (4 months)

• ~60% of snowpack accumulation

Average January Forecast Error: ~200 KAF

April 1st Forecast:

What we KNOW:

• ~98% of snowpack accumulation

• Dec-March weather

What we don’t know:

• April-May weather (2 months)

• Snowmelt pattern

Average April Forecast Error: ~100 KAF

Early Season Forecast Uncertainty

January 1

April 1
January 18-25 Precipitation Outlook 8-14 Day Outlooks (January 25-31)

Upcoming Weather
Summary

• Soil moisture

• Conditions have improved from last year but are still below normal.

• Soil moisture deficits still exists

• Impact on runoff uncertain and will depend on spring weather and snow conditions.

• Snow

• Slow start to the snow season

• Conditions are mixed above 11,000’

• Above normal conditions below 11,000’

• Early January is a little less than halfway (~40-50%) through the snow accumulation season

• Averages

• Moved from 1981-2010 to 1991-2020

• 1991-2020 are 10-20% lower in the San Juan River Basin

• January Water Supply Forecasts

• Range from 85-90% of average

■ Impacted by below normal modeled soil moisture conditions

• Forecast guidance has decreased since early January

• Expect lower February 1st forecasts

• Upcoming Weather

• No significant storms through the end of the month
CBRFC Contacts & WY22 Basin Focal Points

CBRFC Webpage

https://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/

CBRFC Operations

cbrfc.operations@noaa.gov

801-524-4004

CBRFC Water Supply Presentations

https://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/present/present.php

Basin Focal Points (Forecasters)

Brenda Alcorn - Green, Duchesne, White/Yampa

brenda.alcorn@noaa.gov

Ashley Nielson – Gunnison, San Juan, Dolores, Lake Powell

ashley.nielson@noaa.gov

Cody Moser – Upper Colorado Mainstem

cody.moser@noaa.gov

Patrick Kormos – Great Basin/Sevier

patrick.kormos@noaa.gov

Trevor Grout - Virgin, Lower Colorado

trevor.grout@noaa.gov

Brent Bernard – Hydrologist

brent.bernard@noaa.gov

Tracy Cox - Hydrometeorologist

tracy.cox@noaa.gov

Nanette Hosenfeld - Senior Hydrometeorologist

nanette.hosenfeld@noaa.gov

Wolfgang Hanft - Hydrometeorologist

wolfgang.hanft@noaa.gov

Michelle Stokes – Hydrologist In Charge

michelle.stokes@noaa.gov

Paul Miller– Service Coordination Hydrologist

paul.miller@noaa.gov

John Lhotak – Development and Operations Hydrologist

john.lhotak@noaa.gov

801-524-5130 x 333
Official

Water Supply Forecast

(April-July)

Navajo: 550 kaf (87%* avg)

Vallecito: 155 kaf (88% avg)

Lemon: 42 kaf (88% avg)

Animas: 360 kaf (94% avg)

McPhee: 235 kaf (92% avg)

Powell: 6,300 kaf (99% avg)

*1991 – 2020 

Based on current streamflow conditions, storage levels, and statistical 

outlooks based on 35 years of historical hydrology,

• Runoff projections range from 375 kaf (60% avg) – 995 kaf (158% avg)

with a median projection of 550 kaf (88% avg).

• 8% chance of a SJRIP-prescribed Spring Peak Release

• 3% chance of falling below 5990 ft (min active storage)

• End of Water Year storage range 820 kaf (6015 ft, 50% full) – 1,326 kaf

(6063 ft, 80% full) with a median projection of 1,034 kaf (6038 ft, 63%

full)

Projected Operations WY 2022
• Statistical Averages

• The 30-year average used across agencies progresses every decade

• The time period for statistics has been updated to 1991 - 2020

• Navajo April – July Modified Unregulated Inflow averages:

• 1981 – 2010: 737 kaf

• 1991 – 2020: 628 kaf

• What does this mean?

• Averages for the same forecast will be higher than they have in previous years.

• The forecasts will trend lower from the start, as the hydrology feeding the models is

lower.

• Navajo Area-Capacity Tables were updated and implemented in

October of 2021. Updated live storage is 1.65 maf (1.70 maf

previously)

Updates:
Reclamation Contacts:

Marc Miller – Water Management Group Chief

970-385-6541 mbmiller@usbr.gov

Susan Novak Behery – Hydrologic Engineer

970-385-6560 sbehery@usbr.gov

To be added to Navajo Dam notices email list, send an email to 

westcoloareaoffice@usbr.gov 

Useful Links

Reclamation: www.usbr.gov/uc

USGS: water.usgs.gov/nwis

CBRFC: cbrfc.noaa.gov

Next Meeting: April 19, 2022