BUREAU OF RECLAMATION

NAVAJO RESERVOIR COORDINATION MEETING

JANUARY 17, 2023

SUMMARY

Dear Interested Party:

Enclosed is a summary of theJanuary 17th, 2023 meeting to coordinate Bureau of Reclamation’s 

(Reclamation) operation of the Navajo Unit. The meeting was held virtually via Microsoft 

Teams video and by phone. 

Summary points of the meeting:

• Precipitation so far in Water Year 2023 on the whole has been above average. 

• Soil moisture conditions are much improved over this time last year but still remain 

below-average. Soil moisture, along with spring weather and other factors, can have 

significant effects on the runoff efficiency.

• The first water supply forecast of the year (January 1st) has a range of 385 kaf (60% of 

average) to 1,010 kaf (160% of average) with a median forecast of 570 kaf (90% of 

average). With the verification of the large early January storms, plan for an increase in 

the forecast in mid-January and February. 

• Snowpack throughout the basin is well above average, owing mostly to the large storm in 

early January, however, don’t get comfortable because we are still very early in the snow

accumulation season.

• Right now, the odds are not in favor of a spring peak release. However, another large 

storm or two like the one we saw in January could tip us towards that possibility. If a 

large release becomes likely, Reclamation will send out notices.

• The median (Most Probable) forecast shows a peak elevation this spring of 6046 ft and an 

end of water year elevation of 6039 ft. 

Copies of the material presented, and past meeting notes are available online at: 

http://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/nvd.html 

If you have any suggestions on improving the operation meetings or the summaries of the 

meetings, please let us know. 

Next meeting date: Tuesday, April 18th, 2023 at 1:00 PM. This meeting is currently 

planned to be held in-person at the Farmington Civic Center, in Farmington, NM with a 

video and/or phone option for those who would like to attend virtually. This is subject to 

change based on the situation at the time. Please contact sbehery@usbr.gov for questions 

or updates. 
NAVAJO UNIT OPERATIONS MEETING

January 17th, 2023 

Participation: This meeting was held virtually via Microsoft Teams. The attendance list is 

attached. 

Purpose of Meeting: The purpose of these meetings, held annually in January, April, and 

August, is to gather input for determining upcoming operations for Navajo Reservoir. This input 

is used in Reclamation’s development of an overall 24-month study for operation of Reclamation 

projects in the Upper Colorado River Basin, which includes plans for Glen Canyon, Flaming 

Gorge, Aspinall Unit and Navajo. Input from individuals, organizations, and agencies, along 

with other factors such as weather, water rights, endangered species requirements, flood control, 

hydro power, recreation, fish and wildlife management, and reservoir levels, will be considered 

in the development of these reservoir operation plans. In addition, the meetings are used to 

coordinate activities and exchange information among agencies, water users, and other interested 

parties concerning the San Juan River and Navajo Reservoir. 

Operations in WY 2023 so far and Current Conditions in the Basin

Susan Behery, Reclamation, Western Colorado Area Office 

Water Year 2023 began on October 1, 2022, with Navajo holding 871 kaf of live storage (245 

kaf active storage) at elevation 6020.56 ft. The Navajo Indian Irrigation Project (NIIP) ended 

their diversions for the year on October 17th. The release to meet the downstream target 

baseflow (TBF) in the critical habitat reach has ranged between 300 and 350 cfs for the 

remainder of the fall and early winter. 

Inflows to Navajo Reservoir have been largely on average for the water year as a whole. 

Releases have managed to stay below average while maintaining the authorized purposes of the 

Reservoir and ESA commitments. The reservoir has lost approximately 20.5 kaf of storage 

(approximately 2 feet of elevation) since the beginning of the water year. Navajo Reservoir is 2-

feet lower than it was this time last year.

Around the basin, most reservoirs are half-full (or half empty). As of the meeting date, McPhee 

holds 188,761 af (50% of live storage). Lake Nighthorse is at 113,160 af (98% of live storage) 

and is planned for topping off this spring. Lemon is at 16,956 af (43% of live storage). Vallecito 

is at 69,555 af (55% live storage), and Jackson is at 5,555 af (56% of live storage). Navajo is at 

850,740 af, or 52% of live storage (22% of active storage).

Around the Upper Colorado River Drainage Basin: Flaming Gorge is 69% full, Blue Mesa is 

35% full, and Lake Powell is 24% full.

Streamflow Forecast and Weather Outlook 

Ashley Nielson, Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC), Salt Lake City

Observed precipitation at the end of the last water year (July-September of 2022) was aboveaverage in July due to heavy monsoonal activity. August and September were drierand had just 
below average precipitation for those months. These last months of WY 2022 helped set up 

better soil moisture conditions than we had seen in previous years, though still below-average on 

the whole. 

As Water Year 2023 began, October saw average precipitation, and November was quite dry 

with only 65% of average precipitation. Overall, for Water Year 2023 to date, the San Juan 

Basin as a whole has had average or just above average precipitation. 

Drought conditions have improved significantly over the past several years, with most of the 

basin in D1, and some D2-D3 in the southern portions of the basin. 

Modeled soil moisture conditions in the CBRFC’s hydrologic model are near to below normal 

across many of the major runoff producing areas. While these soil moisture deficits still exist, 

they have improved over previous years. 

The January 1st Water Supply Forecast for Navajo Reservoir is 570 kaf (90% of average) with a 

range of 385 kaf (60% of average) to 1,010 kaf (160% of average). The forecast has increased 

since January 1st due to wet conditions. The water supply forecast will increase if these next 

storm systems verify. It is still early in the water supply season, thus the wide range in the 

forecast.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) weather outlook for January-March is showing classic La 

Nina conditions- a cool and wet northwest and a warm and dry southwest. That being said, it 

does look like the active weather pattern should continue through the end of the month, though 

there will be a shift to colder storm systems from the northwest that may be lower producing.

Proposed Operations for remainder of WY 2023

Susan Behery – Reclamation, Western Colorado Area Office 

The latest (January 1st) CBRFC official Most Probable April-July runoff forecasts are as follows:

Navajo: 570 kaf (90%* avg) 

Vallecito: 170 kaf (96% avg) 

Lemon: 48 kaf (100% avg) 

Animas: 385 kaf (100% avg) 

McPhee: 260 kaf (102% avg) 

Powell: 6,700 kaf (105% avg) 

*average of the 1991 – 2020 time period 

Water Supply forecasts are very similar, though slightly higher, than this time last year. The midJanuary update is anticipated to include the most recent storm totals and should increase.

Releases the remainder of this winter are likely to range between 300 and 350 cfs until spring 

irrigation begins. At that point, the release may increase if runoff has not yet begun to 

compensate for irrigation. 
With the January official Most Probable inflows and subsequent operations, the reservoir is 

expected to peak at 6046 ft. There is no spring peak projected under the Most Probable inflow. 

Under the Min Probable inflow (385 kaf), there is no spring peak release and the reservoir peaks 

at 6035 ft this spring. The Max Probable inflow forecast of 1,010 kaf is sufficient to conduct a 

spring peak release of 27 days at 5,000 cfs. 

The subsequent flows at the San Juan Four Corners gage are projected to peak at 3,500 cfs under 

the Most Probable forecast. The range is wide from the Min to the Max Probable forecast (2,500 

cfs to 9,000 cfs respectively). 

Based on current streamflow conditions, storage levels, and statistical outlooks based on 30 years 

of historical hydrology,

• Runoff projections range from 385 kaf (61% avg) – 1,010 kaf (161% avg) with a median 

projection of 570 kaf (91% avg). 

• Potential for a spring peak release under the Max Probable forecast. No spring peak 

under Min or Most Prob forecast. 

• Reservoir forecast to peak between 6035 and 6051 ft in spring with a median projection 

of 6046 ft 

• End of Water Year storage range 771 kaf (6009 ft, 47% full) – 1,200 kaf (6050 ft, 73% 

full) with a median projection of 1,040 kaf (6038 ft, 63% full) 

Reduced Releases for instream work are likely this winter. Project managers for the Turley 

Manzanares Ditch Company Diversion Dam Rehabilitation Project are planning to request a 

reduction in the release to 250 cfs for several days this winter for instream work (dates have not 

yet been set). The City of Farmington Power Plant will take this opportunity to do maintenance 

as they will not be able to generate power. The release will be through the Auxiliary 4x4 during 

this time. Anticipated project completion date is April 1, 2023. The project description and 

contact information are in the agency updates section below. 

Drought Response Operations Plan (DROA): No decisions have been made yet regarding 

releases from the initial units to Lake Powell for this upcoming year. Meetings and discussions 

are currently ongoing regarding potential releases, accounting, and recovery. More information 

should be available by the April meeting. 

Dominique Work of the New Mexico Interstate Stream Commission (NMISC) added that the 

DROA parties are currently looking at drafting the plan, but the Upper Division States of the 

Upper Colorado River Commission (UCRC) need resolution over accounting and recovery 

before considering additional DROA releases in the future, and that is being worked on along 

with Reclamation.

Agency Updates

San Juan River Recovery Implementation Program (SJRIP): The winter Biology Committee 

meeting is scheduled for February 21-23 in Durango at the Public Lands Center. The joint San 

Juan-Upper Colorado Recovery Program’s Researchers meeting will be on January 31-Feb 1, 
and will be in Grand Junction at the DoubleTree. For more information or a link to either of 

these meetings please email james_sykes@fws.gov.

Navajo Agricultural Products Incorporated (NAPI): Diversions from Navajo to NIIP- gate will 

be opening on February 13th. 

Julie and Joe Rasor: Concern about large, downed cottonwoods on BLM property that may cause 

issues or damage to their private property if high flows occur this spring. 

Turley Manzanares Ditch Company: The Turley Manzanares Ditch Company has entered into a 

construction contract with Sanchez Demolition to perform a rehabilitation of the Turley 

Manzanares Diversion Dam located about 10 miles downstream of Navajo Dam on the San Juan 

River. The scope of the project includes temporary bypass of water, demolition and removal of 

existing grade control structure, excavation and installation of boulder weir grade control 

structure and site restoration including grading and native plantings. A no permit required letter 

was received from the US Army Corps of Engineers, dated February 1, 2022 (Action No. SPA2022-00024). Sanchez Demolition will be mobilizing to the site in late January 2023 and is 

currently preparing a control of water schedule. Date of final project completion is April 1, 

2023. 

Project contacts:

Owner: Turley Manzanares Ditch Company, David Arnold, 

President, winesofthesanjuan@gmail.com

Contractor: Sanchez Demolition, Joshua Sanchez, sanchezdemolition@gmail.com

Engineer: William J. Miller Engineers, Inc., John Critchfield, P.E., 

CFM john@wjmillerengineers.com

Links

• Navajo Project Notices: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/wcao/water/rsvrs/notice/nav_rel.html

• Navajo Monthly Forecast Update: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/nvd.html

• UC Water Operations Home: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/index.html

• Teacups: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/basin/index.html

• 24-Month Study: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/index.html

• DROA: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html

Attendance List

Adrienne Soder Arizona Public Service 

Ali Effati NMISC

Ashley Nielson CBRFC

Carolyn Donnelly Reclamation, Albuquerque Area Office

Carrie Padgett SWWCD

Clay Cady APS Water Resource Management Hydrologist

Clay Johnston Turley Manzanares

Crystal Tulley-Cordova Navajo Nation Department of Water Resources

Dawn Knuppel San Juan County
Dex Lewis Reclamation

Dineh John NAPI

Dominique Work NMISC

Ed Warner Reclamation

Erik Knight Reclamation

James Miller FWS

Jeanette Joe NAPI

Jeff Derry Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies

Jen Dumas Jicarilla Apache Nation

Joe Trungale TNC

John Critchfield William J. Miller Engineers, Inc

Julie and Joe Rasor Landowners

Justyn Liff Reclamation

Kathi Smith Hammond Conservancy District

Lee Traynham Reclamation

Les Larson Hillside Irrigation District

Linda Corwin Bloomfield, NM

Lionel Haskie NAPI

Liz Serrano Bloomfield Irrigation District

Marc Miller Reclamation

Marc Wethington New Mexico Game and Fish

Michele Truby-Tillen San Juan County

Moncef Tihami Reclamation

Nate Franssen FWS, SJRIP

Norman Norvelle Retired NMED Environmental Specialist

Pamela Norris APS

Pat Page Local Human

Pauline Ellis Fiver Rivers TU

Prudence Brady City of Bloomfield

Renae Pablo NAPI

Reynalden Delgarito USACE

Robert Kirk Navajo Nation

Robert Wormuth Turley Manzanares

Roselyn Yazzie NAPI

Ryan Gladden Reclamation

Scott Durst FWS, SJRIP

Scott Miller APS

Stacy Dodd Bloomfield Irrigation District

Susan Behery Reclamation

Tami Gideon Reclamation

Tom Chart Water Users rep to the SJRIP Biology Committee