Humpback Chub Gila cypha

SSA & 5-year Review

Glen Canyon Dam AMP Technical Work Group April 23, 2018

Kevin McAbee

Upper Colorado River

Endangered Fish Recovery Program 

1
Species Status Assessment

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Improved Endangered 

Species Act Assessment Process 

Cope with Synergistic Factors

Improve Forecasting

Improve Transparency & Consistency

Distinct Science and Policy

Increase Conservation through Collaboration

Spend More Time on Science

Useful for Multiple Decisions/Programs

2
Project 

Planning 

Decision

Analysis

Decision

Document

Review and 

Surname 

Process

Species Status 

Assessment

Analysis

Reporting

Peer Review

Species Status Assessment

Input from States and 

Other Experts

SSA Work Flow

3

Distinct Science 

and Policy

Spend More Time on Science

Improve Transparency & Consistency
Species Status Assessment

Useful for Multiple decisions/programs

4
Species Status Assessment

Viability is the ability of a species to sustain populations 

in the wild beyond a biologically meaningful time frame.

Representation – the ability of the species to 

adapt to changing environmental conditions

> Genetic and ecological diversity

Resiliency – the ability of the populations to withstand 

stochasticity

> Population health, abundance, growth rate, etc.

Redundancy – the ability of the species to 

withstand catastrophic events

> Number and distribution of populations

5

Population 1 

Resilience

Population 3 

Resilience

Redundancy

Population 

2 

Resilience Population 4 

Resilience

Representation
Species Status Assessment

6

Future Availability

or Condition of those 

Needs

SPECIES NEEDS

Current Availability

or Condition of those 

Needs

CURRENT SPECIES’ CONDITION

FUTURE SPECIES’ CONDITION

SSA has 3 Stages:
Future Conditions

SPECIES METRIC

T I M E

Multiple 

Scenarios of 

Possible Future

Conditions

Current Condition

PRESENT

7
8

Humpback Chub SSA

o Initiated November 2015

o 8 drafts

o Final Draft November 2017

o Published March 2018
Project 

Planning 

Decision

Analysis

Decision

Document

Review and 

Surname 

Process

Species Status 

Assessment

Analysis

Reporting

Peer Review

Humpback Chub SSA

Input from States and 

Other Experts

SSA Work Flow

9

Need:

5-year 

Review &

Updated 

Recovery 

Plan

USFWS Analysis

(Field Staff) &

Decision 

(Regional staff)

5-year 

Review

Regional 

Director

Signature 

(R6) & 

Concurrence 

(R2)
Species Status 

Assessment

Analysis

Reporting

Peer Review

Humpback Chub SSA

Input from States and 

Other Experts

10

Early 2018

Nov 2015 to 

Nov 2017

Mid 2016 to 

Mid 2017

Mid 2016 to 

Mid 2017
Humpback Chub SSA

11

Future Availability

or Condition of those 

Needs

SPECIES NEEDS

Current Availability

or Condition of those 

Needs

CURRENT SPECIES’ CONDITION

FUTURE SPECIES’ CONDITION

SSA has 3 Stages:

Chapter 3

Chapter 5

Chapter 4
Primary Resource Categories

1. Diverse rocky canyon river habitat

2. Suitable river flow and temperature 

3. Adequate and reliable food supply

4. Habitat with few nonnative predators 

and competitors

5. Suitable water quality

6. Unimpeded range and connectivity

7. Persistent populations

8. High genetic diversity

Humpback Chub

Species Needs

12

Ch. 3
Humpback Chub Populations

Upper Basin

• Blacks Rocks

• Westwater Canyon

• Desolation / Gray canyons

• Cataract Canyon

• Dinosaur NM (extirpated)

Lower Basin

• Grand Canyon 

• Core Little Colorado River

• Mainstem aggregations 

• Havasu Creek translocation

• Western Grand Canyon 13

Ch. 2.2
Current Resource Conditions

Resource 

Category

Upper Basin Lower Basin

Black Rocks Westwater 

Canyon

Desolation/ 

Gray canyons

Cataract 

Canyon

Dinosaur National 

Monument Grand Canyon

Extant Extirpated Extant

1. Diverse rocky 

canyon river 

habitat

2a. Suitable flow

2b. Suitable 

temperature

3. Adequate and 

reliable food 

supply

4. Habitat with few 

nonnative 

predators and 

competitors

5. Suitable water 

quality

6. Unimpeded range 

and connectivity

7. Persistent 

populations

8. High genetic 

diversity

Table 7: Please refer to SSA for detailed information 14

Ch. 4.3
Status of Upper Basin Demographics

•Blacks Rocks & Westwater Canyon

• Declines through 2007; 

• Apparent subsequent stabilization

•Desolation / Gray canyons

•Unclear abundance estimates trend

• Point estimates decline but CI overlap 

• CPUE apparently stable over ~30 years

•Cataract Canyon

•Persistent at low abundance; CPUE variable

•Dinosaur National Monument 

•Extirpated but potential for translocations

15

Ch. 4.5
Status of Lower Basin Demographics

• Grand Canyon

• Core population ~11,500 adults 

• stable since 2008

• growth in 2000s

• Mainstem: ~250 adults 

• several hundred younger 

• reproduction in western GC

•Successful translocation efforts 

• LCR and Havasu

16

Ch. 4.5
Future Conditions

SPECIES METRIC

T I M E

Current Condition

PRESENT

17

Multiple Scenarios of Possible Future

Environmental and Management 

Conditions
• Biologically Meaningful Timeframe: 

16-years

• Risks and Uncertainties

• Reduced Water Availability 

• Predation and Competition by Nonnative Fish

• Nonnative fish colonization of Humpback Chub 

habitats

• Population Trajectory Uncertainties

• Still Declining vs Recently Stabilizing

• Efficacy and Intensity of Management Actions

• Are Programs doing enough or appropriate 

actions?

Future Conditions

18

Ch. 5
Three potential future scenarios created by FWS 

and evaluated by the Science Advisors

• S1: Environmental Stressors Increase and New or Discretionary 

Extralegal Actions are Eliminated

(Upper Basin Recovery Program ends in 2023)

• S2: Legally Mandated Management Actions and Additional 

Adaptive Management Actions Occur, but are Ineffective

• S3: Legally Mandated Management Actions and Adaptive 

Management Actions Occur, and Are Effective

Future Conditions

19

Ch. 5.3

u.s. 

FISH & WILDLIFE 

SERVICE 
Future Conditions

Tables 16, 17, & 18: Please refer to SSA for more details

20

Ch. 5.3
Viability

Resiliency Redundancy Representation

Upper 

Basin

S1

S2

S3

Lower 

Basin

S1

S2

S3

21

 Viability is more tenuous in the upper basin than in the lower basin

Ch. 6
Viability

Resiliency Redundancy Representation

Upper 

Basin

S1

S2

S3

Lower 

Basin

S1

S2

S3

22

 Viability is more tenuous in the upper basin than in the lower basin

 Under scenarios 2 and 3 the species is fairly well represented and resilient, 

but redundancy is less certain. Primarily because of the potential to see 

declines in upper basin populations under scenario 2. 

 Uncertainty remains regarding current population trajectories of Humpback 

Chub, densities of nonnative predators in the upper basin, and risk 

associated with future conditions throughout the basin.

Ch. 6
Project 

Planning 

Decision

Analysis

Decision

Document

Review and 

Surname 

Process

Species Status 

Assessment

Analysis

Reporting

Peer Review

Humpback Chub SSA

Input from States and 

Other Experts

SSA Work Flow

23

Need:

5-year 

Review &

Updated 

Recovery 

Plan

USFWS Analysis

(Field Staff) &

Decision 

(Regional staff)

5-year 

Review

Regional 

Director

Signature 

(R6) & 

Concurrence 

(R2)

Assistant Regional Directors 

& State Supervisors: 

November 2017

Regional Directors:

December 2017
24

 Endangered Species: A species in danger of extinction 

throughout all or a significant portion of its range

 Threatened Species: species likely to become endangered 

within the foreseeable future throughout all or a significant 

portion of its range.

 The key statutory difference between a threatened species 

and an endangered species is the timing of when a species 

may be in danger of extinction, either now (endangered 

species) or in the foreseeable future (threatened species). 

5-year Review

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is required to review the status 

of each federally listed species every five years. 
25

Humpback Chub 

5-year Review

Signed March 19, 2018
Summary Current Condition

• Independent population locations

• Large, stable lower basin population

• Multiple upper basin populations

• Genetic diversity protected 

• Some populations have recently 

declined / extirpated

Redundancy, Representation & Resiliency

26

•Individuals 

•Long life span

•Inhabit arduous habitats

•Populations

•Persist at low abundance 

•Rebound after declines

•Establish from translocations

Resources in fair to good condition
27

Humpback Chub 

5-year Review

 Endangered Species: A species in danger of extinction throughout all or a significant 

portion of its range

Humpback chub

• Current resource conditions are fair to good and support the species;

• Near term extirpation risk of multiple populations is low; 

• Resilient, large core population in the lower basin & multiple populations in the upper 

basin decrease the risk to the species from stochastic & catastrophic events

• Therefore, we conclude that the Humpback chub does not meet the 

definition of an endangered species. 
Resiliency Redundancy Representation

Upper 

Basin

S1

S2

S3

Lower 

Basin

S1

S2

S3

28

Humpback Chub 

5-year Review

 Threatened Species: species likely to become endangered within the 

foreseeable future throughout all or a significant portion of its range.

SSA used a 16-year Biologically Meaningful Timeframe

USFWS determined that 16 years was not an adequate 

foreseeable future and requested more information
Additional Viability Analysis

29

Appendix C
30

Humpback Chub 

5-year Review

 Threatened Species: species likely to become endangered within the foreseeable 

future throughout all or a significant portion of its range.

Humpback chub

• Projected viability declines substantially under scenario 1 within 16 years;

• Projected viability declines under scenario 2 within 40 years;

• Even with the projected viability of the species under scenario 3, there is risk to the 

species under scenarios 1 and 2 in 16 and 40 years.

• The species could become endangered within the foreseeable future

• Therefore, we conclude that the Humpback chub meets the definition 

of a "threatened" species.
31

Humpback Chub 

5-year Review
 We all should celebrate this success

 Humpback chub conservation is succeeding

 Conservation actions need to continue to 

further protect the species viability into the 

future

 This is a recommendation to change status

 No change in ESA listing status yet

 5-year Review also recommended revising 

the recovery plan

32

What does this mean?
 Status change is a federal rulemaking

1. Proposed rule to classify humpback chub as threatened

2. Receive public comments on proposed rule

3. Final Rule considers public comments and all information 

 Reconvene the recovery team for a revised recovery plan

 If reclassified, recovery plan would only include de-listing criteria 33

Next Steps

Regional Director Walsh and the USFWS are committed to 

follow through on the recommendations

u.s. 

FISH & WILDLIFE 

SERVICE 
Thank You – Questions?

34

Kevin_McAbee@fws.gov

(303) 236-9887
Species Status Assessment

Places to go for more information

1. View videos. On the NCTC Introduction to SSA Course resource page. 

https://nctc.fws.gov/courses/csp/csp3910/resources/

2. Read a manuscript . Development of a Species Status Assessment 

Process for Decisions under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management

3. Take a class. 

NCTC Introduction to SSA Course go to DOI Learn, FWS-CSP3910

4. Download material. USFWS Endangered Species Webpage

fws.gov/endangered/improving_esa/ssa.html

5. Talk to an expert. Connect with heather_bell@fws.gov and she 

can direct you to a regional expert on the SSA.

35
Black Rocks

(2016 and 2017 data preliminary)

Francis et al. 2017 36
Westwater 

Canyon

Hines 2017

37
Desolation / Gray 

Canyons

y = 80.721 - 0.03635*x

R2 = 0.40, p = 0.2572

λ = 0.96 (0.91 - 1.01)

Howard and Caldwell 2018

38
Cataract 

Canyon

Ahrens 2017 39
Dinosaur National Monument

Last humpback chub 

captured in DNM in 

2004

40