Potential Economic Cost of Smallmouth 

Bass Flows 

Lucas S. Bair, U.S. Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center 

Charles Yackulic, U.S. Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Cetner 

Drew Eppehimer, U.S. Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Cetner 

Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program Annual Reporting Meeting 

January 23, 2024, Phoenix, Arizona 

U.S. Department of th e Interior

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U.S. Geological Survey 
 

 

Hydropower Resource Goal 

• Maintain or increase Glen Canyon Dam electric energy 

generation, load following capability, and ramp rate 

capability, and minimize emissions and costs to the greatest 

extent practicable, consistent with improvement and longterm sustainability of downstream resources. 

• Project N will identify, coordinate, and collaborate with 

external partners on monitoring and research opportunities 

associated with operational experiments at GCD designed to 

meet hydropower and energy resource objectives, as stated 

in the LTEMP ROD. 

2 
Operable utility-scale generating units 

3 
Energy dispatch curve for summer 

 

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. Note: The dispatch curve above is for a 

hypothetical collection of generators and does not represent an actual electric power system or 

model results. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=7590 4 
 

 

 

 

 

 

Integrated Model 

• Integrated physical, biological and economic models 

improves the program’s capacity to evaluate and prioritize 

monitoring, research and management alternatives specific 

to the operation of GCD. 

• This is an economic analysis of the energy costs. We are not 

estimating capacity costs or cost from changes in power 

sector emissions. This is also not a financial assessment or 

an evaluation of distributional impacts. 

5 
 

Source: Reclamation, Colorado River Storage Project. Glen Canyon Dam and Powerplant 

Lake Powell. Internet website: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/rm/crsp/gc/gcdbrochure.pdf 6 
 

Historic Glen Canyon Dam Operations 

25,000 

5,000 

10,000 

15,000 

20,000 

Hourly flow in cfs 

0 

Source: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/riverops/_HdbWebQuery.html 7 
 

Hours in a representative week (Sunday through Saturday) 

Source: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/riverops/_HdbWebQuery.html 8 

Glen Canyon Dam Operations 

Average hourly Glen Canyon Dam release by month, day, and hour of the 

week from May 2020 through November 2022 
Modeled GCD Operations 

Recent historic operation at GCD is a good predictor 

of near-term GCD operation. 

Preliminary data, do not cite 

9 
Historic Electricity Prices at the Palo Verde Hub 

Source: California ISO Open Access Same-time Information System (OASIS). 

http://oasis.caiso.com/mrioasis/logon.do 10 
Electricity Prices at Palo Verde 

Average hourly electricity price by month, day, and hour of the 

week from May 2020 through September 2022 

Hours in a representative week (Sunday through Saturday) 

Source: California ISO Open Access Same-time Information System (OASIS). 

http://oasis.caiso.com/mrioasis/logon.do 11 
 

 

 

Modeled Energy Price 

Recent historic energy prices and futures contracts at 

the Palo Verde Hub are good predictors of near-term 

energy prices. 

Preliminary data, do not cite 

12 
 

 

 

Modeled Results 

October 2022, January 2023, and April 2023 forecast economic cost of SMB flows 

at the Little Colorado River for 2023 calendar year with hydrologic uncertainty 

0 

20 

40 

60 

80 

100 

Economic Costs ($ millions) 

Oct 2022 Jan 2023 Apr 2023 

Preliminary data, do not cite 13 
 

 

 

Modeled Results 

October 2022, January 2023, and April 2023 forecast economic cost of SMB 

flows at the Little Colorado River for 2023 calendar year with hydrologic and 

energy price uncertainty 

Preliminary data, do not cite 14 
Photo Credit: Amy S. Martin 

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