U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey

Identifying the total economic value of 

hydropower at Glen Canyon Dam and 

implications for adaptive management

Lucas S. Bair, U.S. Geological Survey, Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center

Dominique M. Bain, Northern Arizona University

Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program Annual Reporting Meeting 

January 13, 2020 Phoenix, Arizona

U. S. Department of Interior

U.S. Geological Survey

Photo Credit: Amy S. Martin
LTEMP EIS Hydropower 

Resource Goal

Maintain or increase Glen Canyon Dam electric energy 

generation, load following capability, and ramp rate 

capability, and minimize emissions and costs to the 

greatest extent practicable, consistent with 

improvement and long-term sustainability of 

downstream resources.

Photo Credit: Amy S. Martin
Project N.1

Project N will identify, coordinate, and collaborate with 

external partners on monitoring and research 

opportunities associated with operational experiments 

at GCD designed to meet hydropower and energy 

resource objectives, as stated in the LTEMP ROD.

Photo Credit: Amy S. Martin
Map of operable utility-scale generating units as of July 2018 

in the U.S.
Economic Cost of Energy

Variable 

Cost per 

Unit Energy

Quantity of Energy

Hydro

Coal

Natural gas

Highest Cost 
Economic Value of Energy

On-peak 

Demand

$

Q

Variable 

Cost per 

Unit Energy

Quantity of Energy
Economic Value of Energy, cont.

Off-peak 

Demand

$

Q

Variable 

Cost per 

Unit Energy

Quantity of Energy
U.S. Department of Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. August 2014 DOI-DOE 

Federal Family Call Glen Canyon Operations Coordination August 19, 2014 
Structural Changes in the Electricity Sector 
Annual Share of 2024 Generation

California

Colorado River Basin States 

Excluding California

Preliminary data, do not cite
Natural Gas Prices

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n3045us3m.htm
Total 2024 Variable Operations Cost by 

Generation Type

Average Cost per MwH

Preliminary data, do not cite
Social Cost of Emissions

Borenstein S: The private and public economics of renewable electricity generation. Journal of Economic 

Perspectives, American Economic Association 2012, 26:67-92.

Average External Marginal Cost per kWh
Total 2024 Variable Operations and 

Emissions Cost by Generation Type

Average Cost per MwH

Preliminary data, do not cite
Hypotheses

• Using Glen Canyon Dam as baseload generation will 

reduce total economic costs associated with 

electricity generation in the Western Interconnect 

when considering generation mix and fuel and 

emissions costs. 

• Glen Canyon Dam baseload generation would be 

‘consistent with improvement and long-term 

sustainability of downstream resources.’
Methods and Assumptions

• PLEXOS, a production cost model was used to 

estimate variable costs of generation in 2024 under 

economic dispatch and flat flows at GCD. 

• External CO2 costs and costs by county associated 

with SO2 and NOX were estimated following 

optimization runs.

• This is a short run economic analysis. We are 

assuming that power capacity requirements are met 

across scenarios.
2024 Electricity Sector Scenarios

Business as usual

Low natural gas price $2/MMBtu

High natural gas price $6/MMBtu

Additional 700 MW solar in Arizona

Low natural gas price with additional solar

High natural gas price with additional solar
Modeling Results

Photo Credit: Amy S. Martin
Total Economic Costs

Preliminary data, do not cite
Total Economic Costs, cont.

Preliminary data, do not cite
Change in Annual 2024 Generation –

Flat Flows Compared to Economic Dispatch

-300 -20 -2 2 20 100

Change in GwH

Coal

Natural Gas

Energy Type

Preliminary data, do not cite
Change in Annual 2024 SO2 Emissions –

Flat Flows Compared to Economic Dispatch

-5 to -10,000 tons

-10,000 to -20,000 tons

-20,000 to -30,000 tons

-30,000 to -40,000 tons

-40,000 to -100,000 tons

No Change / <5 tons

Preliminary data, do not cite
Scenario

Total Operations and 

Emissions Costs

Preliminary data, do not cite
Total Operations and 

Emissions Costs

Scenario

Preliminary data, do not cite
Conclusion

• Structural changes in the electricity sector are 

altering the role of hydropower and how costs 

associated with experimental flows might accrue. 

• Total economic costs of our proxy experimental flow 

are significantly different when emissions costs are 

included. 

• Decisions we make today in electricity sector 

expansion will impact the role hydropower plays in 

the sector and costs associated with environmental 

and adaptive management of rivers. 
Photo Credit: Amy S. Martin