Using Conceptual Ecologi

Models as a Framework to G

Decision Making for the LCR 

October 21, 2015 

So

skokos

www.lc

AMP Short Term Goals

• Build an AM framework • Ensure research and monitoring pro

can answer management’s questionneeds 
LCR MSCP AMP’s 

• Creating an explicit link between the 

science activities and restoration site management 

• A framework for meeting HCP 

conservation measures 

• Demonstrate a process for getting t
Adaptive Managemen

Approach

Problem/Objective Predicting the outcomes 

Alternative Implementation Monitoring 

Management

Questions Alternative Implementation Monitorin

Alternative

scrap

Update knowledge and adjust m
MSCP AMP 

“Adaptive Management is the proce

whereby management is initiate

evaluated, and refined”

FWS 5-Point Policy states “AM is a m

for examining alternative strategie

meeting measurable goals and obje

and then, if necessary adjusting fu

conservation mgmt actions based on 

is learned” 
AMP
 

• “Provides objective scientific data 

analyses on which to base manage

decisions...provide for professio

scientific reviews to evaluate 

management’s effectiveness”

LCR M
Science Strategy 

• Program-level and project-level AM • “Both levels of adaptive managemen

on the initial receipt of new informatithe analysis of that information, and incorporation of the new information the design or direction of future work tasks” 
What AM is not:
 

“ A trial and error process, rather a p

that clearly incorporates learning in

management process. 

AM answers why a project succeed

that it can be replicated, or 

why a project failed and what needs 

done to succeed in subsequent ac
Management 

Goals, 

Objectives, 

Questions, and 

Decisions 

Priority 

Research and 

Monitoring 

Questions 

Management 

Actions 

Synthesis AMP Data→ Information→ Knowledge

Management Guideline

• Management Guidelines = Minimum 

habitat parameters 

• Site Management Guidelines 

Site Mgmt 

Plans

AMP

Research 

& 

Monitoring




Lessons Learned

• Building an AM Framework is key. 

– Regulators, Implementers, Managers, 

Researchers, Resources

• Use of Structured Decision Making p

implementation of projects 

• Ensuring Research and Monitoring 

Projects can answer Management’s questions and needs 
Mgmt 

Question 

Design Data Analysis/ Results 

Expected 

outcome 

Design 

Design 

Data 

Data Analysis/ Results 

Analysis/ 

Results 

Expected 

outcome 

Reco

Recom

What does this mean to Management?How will the results be used or implemented by Management?What effects could Recommendations have on Management?
Conceptual Ecologica

Models

• Using LCR MSCP species conceptu

models in adaptive management 

• Review of LCR MSCP species conc

model methodology 
Why do we need CEM

• Create an explicit link between the s

activities and restoration site manag

• A framework for meeting LCR MSCP

conservation measures 
LCR MSCP Species Conceptual 

Model Methodology 

• Follows current best practices: 

– USFWS “Structured Decision Making” – USACE (e.g., Missouri River Recovery Pr– Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Ecosyste

Restoration Program (formerly “CALFED Delta Program) 

• Partners include Reclamation 

• Incorporates information from databas

literature, and experts
How Conceptual Ecological Mode

Support Adaptive Management 

• Identify monitoring needs • Identify crucial knowledge gaps • Provide a framework for identifying 

potential management experiments 

– Improve resource condition – Increase knowledge of how resource “w

• Provide a framework for working in “

ecosystems” 
Species Life History: Natura

Stresses

Predation 

Diseas

Embryo Infant 

Oth

Fo

Mating 

Hab

Habitat Availa

Variability or Qu

Adoles- Adult cent (Dynamics) 

Child 

Transition Rates 

(survivorship or 

recruitment) 
LCR MSCP Species Conceptual 

Model Framework 

• Life stages 

– Cover entire life cycle 

• Life-stage outcomes 

– Survivorship and reproduction 

• Critical biological activities & proces• Critical habitat elements • Controlling factors • Causal relationships 
Life Stages 

• Biologically distinct portions of the life c

a species, identified from literature 

• Individuals ... 

– undergo developments in body form & fun– engage in behaviors... – use sets of habitats, and/or... – interact with their larger ecosystems... – in ways that differ from those of other life 

• Need not span similar amounts of time 

overall life cycle. 
Critical Biological Activities & 

Processes 

• May be different for each life stage • Consist of 

– Activities in which species must engag

sustain an acceptable rate of transition

– Biological processes that critically shap

of transition (+ or –) 

• Examples: mating; foraging; predatio

disease; avoiding other specific hazanesting; egg maturation; seed germi
Critical Habitat Elements 

• May be different for each life stage • Specific habitat conditions that... 

– Are necessary or sufficient for the critic

activities and processes to take place, 

– Can interfere with these critical activitie

processes 

• May have specific ranges of suitable 

values affecting critical biological actor processes 
Controlling Factors (aka “Drive

• Determine the abundance, spatial and 

temporal distribution, and quality of crithabitat elements 

• Natural and anthropogenic factors, inc

resource management 

• May differ among life stages • May be a hierarchy of such factors, aff

the system at different scales of time aspace 
Causal Relationships (links) 

• Identifies how each model component 

affects or is affected by others 

• Effect: Distribution, abundance, conditi

rate of affected node depends on distri

abundance, condition, or rate of causa

• May differ among each life stages • Form “causal chains” or “causal netwo• Identify direct relationships 

– Indirect relationships addressed via causa

“networks”
Example CEM Diagram: RASU Adult L

7.075 

7.076 

7.074 

Foraging 

Flow, 

Turbulence 

Wastewater & 

Other Contaminant 

Inflow 

Water StorageDelivery 

Management 

Motorboat 

Activity 

Nuisance Species 

Introduction & 

Management 

Tributary 

Inflow 

Macro-Habitat 

Geometry 

Meso-Habitat 

Geometry, 

Cover 

7.016 

7.017 

Water 

Chemistry 

Water 

Temperature Depth 

7.003 

7.001 

7.002 

7.005 

7.006 

7.009 

Turbidity 

7.015 

7.014 

7.038 

7.039 

7.040 

7.037 

PlanktonBenthosPOM 

Scientific 

Study 

7.029 

7.012 

Substrate 

Texture, 

Dynamics 

7.004 

7.010 

7.043 

7.042 

Management of 

Channel, Lake, 

Pond Geometry 

7.013 7.020 

7.022 

7.032 

7.031 

7.036 

7.019 

7.024 

7.028 

7.046 

7.008 7.018 

7.023 

7.044 

7.049 

7.050 

7.051 

7.052 

7.053 

7.054 

7.056 

7.058 7.059 7.060 

7.061 

7.062 

7.063 

7.064 

7.065 

7.066 

7.067 

7.069 

7.070 

7.071 7.072 

7.073 

Infectious 

Agents 

Disease Resting Predation Swimm

Chemical Stress 

Genetic 

Diversity 

Thermal 

Stress 

7.047 

7.048 

Mechanical 

Stress 

7.081 

7.084 

7.085 

7.086 

7.087 7.088 

7.088 

7.089 

RASU Adult Survival Rate 

7.9991 

7.9992 

7.9993 7.9994 7.9995 

7.9996 7.9997 7.9998 

7.026 

7.027 

7.057 

7.033 

7.041 

7.034 

7.035 

7.090 

7.092 

7.093 

7.094 

7.095 

7.096 

7.097 

7.098 

7.099 

7.100 

7.101 

7.102 

7.103 7.104 

7.105 

7.106 

7.108 

7.107 

7.109 

7.007 

7.112 

7.077 

Controlling Factors Habitat Elements Activities & Processes 

Life-Stage Outcomes 
Assessing Causal Relationship

(Links) 

• Links identified in spreadsheet • Each link assessed on four dimensions 

– Character (direction) 

– Magnitude – Predictability – Understanding 

• Magnitude, Predictability, Understanding rated 

Medium, Low, Unknown) 

• Ratings based on standard definitions & guida

• All reasoning documented in spreadsheet and 
CEM Diagram Convention
Example CEM Diagram: RASU Adult L

7.075 

7.076 

7.074 

Foraging 

Flow, 

Turbulence 

Wastewater & 

Other Contaminant 

Inflow 

Water StorageDelivery 

Management 

Motorboat 

Activity 

Nuisance Species 

Introduction & 

Management 

No

F

Man

Tributary 

Inflow 

Macro-Habitat 

Geometry 

Meso-Habitat 

Geometry, 

Cover 

7.016 

7.017 

Water 

Chemistry 

Water 

Temperature Depth 

7.003 

7.001 

7.002 

7.006 

7.009 

Turbidity 

7.015 

7.014 

7.038 

7.039 

7.040 

7.037 

PlanktonBenthosPOM 

Scientific 

Study 

7.029 

7.012 

Substrate 

Texture, 

Dynamics 

7.004 

7.010 

7.043 

7.042 

Management of 

Channel, Lake, 

Pond Geometry 

7.013 7.020 

7.022 

7.031 

7.036 

7.019 

7.024 

7.028 

7.046 

7.008 7.018 

7.023 

7.044 

7.049 

7.050 

7.051 

7.052 

7.053 

7.054 

7.056 

7.058 7.059 7.060 

7.061 

7.062 

7.063 

7.064 

7.065 

7.066 

7.067 

7.069 

7.070 

7.071 7.072 

7.073 

Infectious 

Agents 

Disease Resting Predation Swimming Chemical Stress 

Genetic 

Diversity 

Thermal 

Stress 

7.047 

7.048 

Mechanical 

Stress 

7.081 

7.084 

7.085 

7.086 

7.087 7.088 

7.088 

7.089 

RASU Adult Survival Rate 

7.9991 

7.9992 

7.9993 7.9994 7.9995 

7.9996 7.9997 7.9998 

7.026 

7.027 

7.057 

Com

Ac

7.011 

7

7.033 

7.041 

7.034 

7.035 

7.090 

7.092 

7.093 

7.094 

7.095 

7.096 

7.097 

7.098 

7.099 

7.100 

7.101 

7.102 

7.103 7.104 

7.105 

7.106 

7.108 

7.107 

7.109 

7.110 

7.007 

7.112 

7.077 

7.032 

7.005 

Controlling Factors Habitat Elements Activities & Processes 

Life-Stage Outcomes 
Spreadsheet-Based Assessmen

Documentation of Causal Link
Identifying Management & Rese

Questions 

• Focus on potential critical gaps in know

– “Critical” = potential impact on manageme

actions

– Gaps may be in basic knowledge or simp

monitoring or data integration 

• Focus on potential opportunities for 

management experiments even whereknowledge is high, if intervention has nbeen tried 
Using CEM Diagrams to Ask 

Adaptive Management Question

• Four examples: 

1. What critical activities or processes most str

affect life-stage outcome for Life Stage X? 

2. Which of these most influential relationships 

least understood for this life stage? 

3. What habitat elements most strongly affect 

influential activities or processes? 

a. Directly affect 

b. Indirectly affect 

4. Which controlling factors most strongly affec

most influential habitat elements? 
Most Influential Activities or Proce

7.075 

7.076 

7.074 

Foraging 

Flow, 

Turbulence 

Wastewater & 

Other Contaminant 

Inflow 

Water StorageDelivery 

Management 

Motorboat 

Activity 

Nuisance Species 

Introduction & 

Management 

No

F

Man

Tributary 

Inflow 

Macro-Habitat 

Geometry 

Meso-Habitat 

Geometry, 

Cover 

7.016 

7.017 

Water 

Chemistry 

Water 

Temperature Depth 

7.003 

7.001 

7.002 

7.006 

7.009 

Turbidity 

7.015 

7.014 

7.038 

7.039 

7.040 

7.037 

PlanktonBenthosPOM 

Scientific 

Study 

7.029 

7.012 

Substrate 

Texture, 

Dynamics 

7.004 

7.010 

7.043 

7.042 

Management of 

Channel, Lake, 

Pond Geometry 

7.013 7.020 

7.022 

7.031 

7.036 

7.019 

7.024 

7.028 

7.046 

7.008 7.018 

7.023 

7.044 

7.049 

7.050 

7.051 

7.052 

7.053 

7.054 

7.056 

7.058 7.059 7.060 

7.061 

7.062 

7.063 

7.064 

7.065 

7.066 

7.067 

7.069 

7.070 

7.071 7.072 

7.073 

Infectious 

Agents 

Disease Resting Predation Swimming Chemical Stress 

Genetic 

Diversity 

Thermal 

Stress 

7.047 

7.048 

Mechanical 

Stress 

7.081 

7.084 

7.085 

7.086 

7.087 7.088 

7.088 

7.089 

RASU Adult Survival Rate 

7.9991 

7.9992 

7.9993 7.9994 7.9995 

7.9996 7.9997 7.9998 

7.026 

7.027 

7.057 

Com

Ac

7.011 

7

7.033 

7.041 

7.034 

7.035 

7.090 

7.092 

7.093 

7.094 

7.095 

7.096 

7.097 

7.098 

7.099 

7.100 

7.101 

7.102 

7.103 7.104 

7.105 

7.106 

7.108 

7.107 

7.109 

7.110 

7.007 

7.112 

7.077 

7.032 

7.005 

Controlling Factors Habitat Elements Activities & Processes 

Life-Stage Outcomes 
What Causal Nodes Most Strongly 

the Most Influential Activities o

Processes

7.075 

7.076 

7.074 

Foraging 

Flow, 

Turbulence 

Wastewater & 

Other Contaminant 

Inflow 

Water StorageDelivery 

Management 

Motorboat 

Activity 

Nuisance Species 

Introduction & 

Management 

No

F

Man

Tributary 

Inflow 

Macro-Habitat 

Geometry 

Meso-Habitat 

Geometry, 

Cover 

7.016 

7.017 

Water 

Chemistry 

Water 

Temperature Depth 

7.003 

7.001 

7.002 

7.006 

7.009 

Turbidity 

7.015 

7.014 

7.038 

7.039 

7.040 

7.037 

PlanktonBenthosPOM 

Scientific 

Study 

7.029 

7.012 

Substrate 

Texture, 

Dynamics 

7.004 

7.010 

7.043 

7.042 

Management of 

Channel, Lake, 

Pond Geometry 

7.013 7.020 

7.022 

7.031 

7.036 

7.019 

7.024 

7.028 

7.046 

7.008 7.018 

7.023 

7.044 

7.049 

7.050 

7.051 

7.052 

7.053 

7.054 

7.056 

7.058 7.059 7.060 

7.061 

7.062 

7.063 

7.064 

7.065 

7.066 

7.067 

7.069 

7.070 

7.071 7.072 

7.073 

Infectious 

Agents 

Disease Resting Predation Swimming Chemical Stress 

Genetic 

Diversity 

Thermal 

Stress 

7.047 

7.048 

Mechanical 

Stress 

7.081 

7.084 

7.085 

7.086 

7.087 7.088 

7.088 

7.089 

RASU Adult Survival Rate 

7.9991 

7.9992 

7.9993 7.9994 7.9995 

7.9996 7.9997 7.9998 

7.026 

7.027 

7.057 

Com

Ac

7.011 

7

7.033 

7.041 

7.034 

7.035 

7.090 

7.092 

7.093 

7.094 

7.095 

7.096 

7.097 

7.098 

7.099 

7.100 

7.101 

7.102 

7.103 7.104 

7.105 

7.106 

7.108 

7.107 

7.109 

7.110 

7.007 

7.112 

7.077 

7.032 

7.005 

Controlling Factors Habitat Elements Activities & Processes 

Life-Stage Outcomes 
2.0

2.002

2.003

2.004

2.005

2.008

2.009 2.010

2.011

2.012

2.013

2.014

2.015

2.016

2.017

2.018

2.019

2.020

2.021

2.022

2.023

2.024

2.025

2.026

2.027

2.028

2.029

2.030

2.031

2.032

2.033 2.034

2.035 

2.03

2.040

2.044

2.047

2.048

2.049

2.051

2.054

2.055

2.056

2.057

2.058

2.059

2.060

2.062

2.063

2.064

2.065

2.066

2.068

2.069

2.070

2.072

2.073

2.074

2.076

2.077

2.078

2.084

2.085

2.086

2.087

2.088

2.089

2.090

2.092

2.093

2.094

2.095

2.098 2.096

2.099

2.100

2.101

2.102

2.103

2.104

2.105

2.106

2.107

2.108

2.109

2.110

2.111

2.112

2.113

2.114

2.1

2.117

2.118

2.119 2.121

2.122

2.123

2.124

2.125

2.126

2.127

2.128

2.129

2.130

2.131

2.132

2.133

2.134

2.135

2.136 2.137 2.138 2.139 2.141 2.140

2.071

Water Storage/Delivery 

System Design & 

Operations 

Wastewater & 

Other Contaminant 

Inflows 

Motorboat 

Activity 

Channel & 

Off-Channel 

Engineering 

Tributary 

Inflows 

Nuisance Species 

Introduction & 

Management 

Scientific 

Study 

Water 

Temperature 

Water Depth 

Water 

Chemistry 

Substrate Texture, 

Dynamics 

Infectious 

Agents 

Invertebrates 

& POM 

Water Flow, 

Turbulence 

Mesohabitat 

Geometry, Cover 

Macrohabitat 

Geometry Turbidity Fishing Encounters 

Thermal 

Stress 

Chemical 

Stress Disease Mechanical Stress Resting Swimming Drifting Predation Foraging 

Fry & Early Juvenile 

Survival Rate 

2.050

2.097

FLSU Fry & Early Juvenile Life Stage, “Master” M
2.0

2.002

2.003

2.013

2.029

2.030

2.031

2.032

2.033 2.034

2.035

2.044

2.055

2.062

2.068

2.074

2.076

2.077

2.078

2.088

2.089 

2.093

2.094

2.095

2.096

2.099

2.107

2.108

2.109

2.110

2.119

2.122

2.123

2.124

2.125

2.126

2.130

2.138

Water Storage/Delivery 

System Design & 

Operations 

Wastewater & 

Other Contaminant 

Inflows 

Motorboat 

Activity 

Channel & 

Off-Channel 

Engineering 

Tributary 

Inflows 

Nuisance Species 

Introduction & 

Management 

Scientific 

Study 

Water 

Temperature 

Water Depth 

Water 

Chemistry 

Substrate Texture, 

Dynamics 

Infectious 

Agents 

Invertebrates 

& POM 

Water Flow, 

Turbulence 

Mesohabitat 

Geometry, Cover 

Macrohabitat 

Geometry Turbidity Fishing Encounters 

Thermal 

Stress 

Chemical 

Stress Disease Mechanical Stress Resting Swimming Drifting Predation Foraging 

Fry & Early Juvenile 

Survival Rate 

2.050

FLSU Fry & Early Juvenile Life Stage, “High-Magnitude” Causal R
2.008

2.010

2.011

2.012 2.014

2.023 

2.03

2.044

2.076

2.077

2.078

2.084

2.086

2.090 2.087

2.092

2.096 2.094

2.100

2.101

2.102

2.103

2.108

2.111

2.114

2.1

2.117

2.118

2.127 2.130

2.133

2.134

2.137 2.138 2.139 2.140

Water Storage/Delivery 

System Design & 

Operations 

Wastewater & 

Other Contaminant 

Inflows 

Motorboat 

Activity 

Channel & 

Off-Channel 

Engineering 

Tributary 

Inflows 

Nuisance Species 

Introduction & 

Management 

Scientific 

Study 

Water 

Temperature 

Water Depth 

Water 

Chemistry 

Substrate Texture, 

Dynamics 

Infectious 

Agents 

Invertebrates 

& POM 

Water Flow, 

Turbulence 

Mesohabitat 

Geometry, Cover 

Macrohabitat 

Geometry Turbidity Fishing Encounters 

Thermal 

Stress 

Chemical 

Stress Disease Mechanical Stress Resting Swimming Drifting Predation Foraging 

Fry & Early Juvenile 

Survival Rate 

FLSU Fry & Early Juvenile Life Stage, “Low Understanding” Caus
2.0

2.002

2.003

2.004

2.005

2.009 2.010

2.011

2.012 2.014

2.015

2.016

2.017

2.018

2.019

2.020

2.021

2.022

2.024

2.025

2.026

2.027

2.028

2.029

2.030

2.031

2.032

2.033 2.034

2.035 

2.040

2.044

2.047

2.048

2.049

2.051

2.055

2.056

2.057

2.058

2.062

2.063

2.064

2.065

2.066

2.068

2.069

2.070

2.073

2.074

2.076

2.077

2.078

2.089 2.094

2.095

2.096

2.099

2.101

2.102

2.103

2.105

2.106

2.109

2.110

2.111

2.112

2.121

2.125

2.130

2.131

2.139 2.140

2.071

Water Storage/Delivery 

System Design & 

Operations 

Wastewater & 

Other Contaminant 

Inflows 

Motorboat 

Activity 

Channel & 

Off-Channel 

Engineering 

Tributary 

Inflows 

Nuisance Species 

Introduction & 

Management 

Scientific 

Study 

Water 

Temperature 

Water Depth 

Water 

Chemistry 

Substrate Texture, 

Dynamics 

Infectious 

Agents 

Invertebrates 

& POM 

Water Flow, 

Turbulence 

Mesohabitat 

Geometry, Cover 

Macrohabitat 

Geometry Turbidity Fishing Encounters 

Thermal 

Stress 

Chemical 

Stress Disease Mechanical Stress Resting Swimming Drifting Predation Foraging 

Fry & Early Juvenile 

Survival Rate 

2.050

FLSU Fry & Early Juvenile Life Stage, “Predation” Causal R
“Water Management” Stressor-Outcome Sub-

Regional Native

Flora Reservoir 

Watershed Geology &

Topography 

1.032 1.033 1.034 

1.035

1.052 

1.053

1.054

1.055

1.056

1.057

1.058

1.065

1.066

1.067

1.068

1.069

1.070

1.071

1.072

1.073

1.074

1.075

1.076

1.078

1.079 1.080

1.081

1.082

1.083

1.084

1.085

1.086

1.087

1.088

1.089

1.090

1.092

1.093

1.094

1.0951.096

1.097

1.098

1.099

1.100

1.101

1.102

1.111

1.112

1.113

1.114

1.115

1.116

1.117

1.118

1.119

1.120

1.121

1.122

1.123

1.124

1.125

1.126

1.127

1.128

1.129

1.130

1.131

1.132

1.133

1.135

1.136

1.137

1.138

1.139

1.140

1.141

1.142

1.143

1.036

1.002

1.010 1.022

1.150 1.149

1.151

1.152

1.153

Fire 

Management 

Sport & Nuisance Species 

Management 

Air Temperature 

Regime 

Non-Native Species 

Introductions 

Precipitation & 

Snowmelt Regime 

Domestic Grazing 

Management 

Watershed & Riparian 

Land Development 

Water Management 

& Use 

Water Impoundments, 

Diversions, Returns 

Channel ReachScale Morphology Fire Regime Runoff Regime Watershed Erosion Watershed Ground Cover Watershed-Scale Groundwater Dynamics Runoff Chemistry 

Aquatic 

Allochthonous 

Inputs 

Aquatic 1o 

Productivity 

Stream MesoHabitat Dynamics Stream Water Chemistry Dynamics High-Flow Pulse Dynamics Alluvial Water- Table Dynamics Fluvial-Alluvial Sediment Dynamics Low-Flow Pulse Dynamics Baseflow Regime Riparian-Aquatic Native-Exotic Spp. Interactions 

Reptile & Mammal 

Composition Bird Composition Emergent Vegetation Composition Riparian Insect Composition Benthic Macro-inverteb

Composition Amphibian Composition Riparian Vegetation Composition & Structure Fish Composition 
2.0

2.002

2.003

2.013

2.029

2.030

2.031

2.032

2.033 2.034

2.035

2.044

2.055

2.062

2.068

2.074

2.076

2.077

2.078

2.088

2.089 

2.093

2.094

2.095

2.096

2.099

2.107

2.108

2.109

2.110

2.119

2.122

2.123

2.124

2.125

2.126

2.130

2.138

Water Storage/Delivery 

System Design & 

Operations 

Wastewater & 

Other Contaminant 

Inflows 

Motorboat 

Activity 

Channel & 

Off-Channel 

Engineering 

Tributary 

Inflows 

Nuisance Species 

Introduction & 

Management 

Scientific 

Study 

Water 

Temperature 

Water Depth 

Water 

Chemistry 

Substrate Texture, 

Dynamics 

Infectious 

Agents 

Invertebrates 

& POM 

Water Flow, 

Turbulence 

Mesohabitat 

Geometry, Cover 

Macrohabitat 

Geometry Turbidity Fishing Encounters 

Thermal 

Stress 

Chemical 

Stress Disease Mechanical Stress Resting Swimming Drifting Predation Foraging 

Fry & Early Juvenile 

Survival Rate 

2.050

FLSU Fry & Early Juvenile Life Stage, “High-Magnitude” Causa
2.008

2.010

2.011

2.012 2.014

2.023 

2.03

2.044

2.076

2.077

2.078

2.084

2.086

2.090 2.087

2.092

2.096 2.094

2.100

2.101

2.102

2.103

2.108

2.111

2.114

2.1

2.117

2.118

2.127 2.130

2.133

2.134

2.137 2.138 2.139 2.140

Water Storage/Delivery 

System Design & 

Operations 

Wastewater & 

Other Contaminant 

Inflows 

Motorboat 

Activity 

Channel & 

Off-Channel 

Engineering 

Tributary 

Inflows 

Nuisance Species 

Introduction & 

Management 

Scientific 

Study 

Water 

Temperature 

Water Depth 

Water 

Chemistry 

Substrate Texture, 

Dynamics 

Infectious 

Agents 

Invertebrates 

& POM 

Water Flow, 

Turbulence 

Mesohabitat 

Geometry, Cover 

Macrohabitat 

Geometry Turbidity Fishing Encounters 

Thermal 

Stress 

Chemical 

Stress Disease Mechanical Stress Resting Swimming Drifting Predation Foraging 

Fry & Early Juvenile 

Survival Rate 

FLSU Fry & Early Juvenile Life Stage, “Low Understanding” Cau
2.0

2.002

2.003

2.004

2.005

2.009 2.010

2.011

2.012 2.014

2.015

2.016

2.017

2.018

2.019

2.020

2.021

2.022

2.024

2.025

2.026

2.027

2.028

2.029

2.030

2.031

2.032

2.033 2.034

2.035 

2.040

2.044

2.047

2.048

2.049

2.051

2.055

2.056

2.057

2.058

2.062

2.063

2.064

2.065

2.066

2.068

2.069

2.070

2.073

2.074

2.076

2.077

2.078

2.089 2.094

2.095

2.096

2.099

2.101

2.102

2.103

2.105

2.106

2.109

2.110

2.111

2.112

2.121

2.125

2.130

2.131

2.139 2.140

2.071

Water Storage/Delivery 

System Design & 

Operations 

Wastewater & 

Other Contaminant 

Inflows 

Motorboat 

Activity 

Channel & 

Off-Channel 

Engineering 

Tributary 

Inflows 

Nuisance Species 

Introduction & 

Management 

Scientific 

Study 

Water 

Temperature 

Water Depth 

Water 

Chemistry 

Substrate Texture, 

Dynamics 

Infectious 

Agents 

Invertebrates 

& POM 

Water Flow, 

Turbulence 

Mesohabitat 

Geometry, Cover 

Macrohabitat 

Geometry Turbidity Fishing Encounters 

Thermal 

Stress 

Chemical 

Stress Disease Mechanical Stress Resting Swimming Drifting Predation Foraging 

Fry & Early Juvenile 

Survival Rate 

2.050

FLSU Fry & Early Juvenile Life Stage, “Predation” Causal R
Using Output from Cause-Effec

Assessment • Identify causal relationships with great

impact on overall survivorship 

• Assess full causal chains, from controlling 

to outcomes 

• Identify pivotal habitat elements • = Potential places for management interv

• Identify high-magnitude links with low 

understanding 

• = Potentially critical knowledge gaps 

• Many other applications 
Step 1 Step 2 Step 

Development of 

Species 1 (CEM) 

Species 1 (CEM) 

Research and 

Monitoring needs 

Species 2 (CEM) 

Research and 

Monitoring needs 

Development of 

Species 2 (CEM) 

Species 

Measura

measu

indic

Species 

Measura

measu

indic

Development of 

Species 3 (CEM) 

Management determines 

these outcomes 

Species 3 (CEM) 

Research and 

Monitoring needs 

Species 

Measura

measu

indic
Species 1-3 

(CEM) 

Measurable 

Objs, measures 

and indicators 

Step 4 Step 5 Step 

Mana

Dec

Water Regime, 

Planting 

Asbuilts, Land 

owner 

Site 

Management 

Objectives 

Site Analysis and 

Recommendations 

Ste

Implem
Big Picture 

• Step 1 

– Identify what is known and what needs 

known about a species based on curreconditions 

• Step 2 

– Identify Research and Monitoring prior

management 
Big Picture

• Step 3 

– Identify measurable objectives, measu

indicators 

• Step 4 

– Identify multi-species and site constrai

given the goals of the site and HCP. 
Questions?