Fish Community Resp

Fish Community Resp

Temperature Chang

Temperature Chang

Grand Canyon Grand Canyon

Assessment of Risk an

Assessment of Risk an

Recommendations for Moni

Recommendations for Moni

TWG Meeting

June 25, 2007

R.A. Valdez
APPROACH TO NONNA

APPROACH TO NONNA

GRAND CANYON GRAND CANYON

1. Identify native and nonnative s

Identify native and nonnative s

near Grand Canyon. near Grand Canyon.

2. Evaluate benefit/risk to each sp

Evaluate benefit/risk to each sp

temperature change. temperature change.

3. Identify most effective monitori

Identify most effective monitor

to detect response. to detect response.

4. Develop and implement effectiv

Develop and implement effectiv

strategy, as necessary. strategy, as necessary.
1. NATIVE FISH SPEC

NATIVE FISH SPEC

NATIVE FISH SPEC

Current Residents Current Residents

1. humpback chub humpback chub2. flannelmouth flannelmouth sucker3. bluehead sucker bluehead sucker4. speckled dace speckled dace

Extirpated or Questionable Extirpated or Questionable

5. razorback sucker razorback sucker6. roundtail chub roundtail chub7. bonytail bonytail8. Colorado Colorado pikeminnow pikeminnow

Tributary Species Tributary Species

9. Little Colorado Little Colorado spinedace spinedace10. Zuni bluehead sucker Zuni bluehead sucker
NONNATIVE FISH SPE

NONNATIVE FISH SPE

PRESENT (19) PRESENT (19)

1. black bullhead black bullhead 2. channel catfish channel catfish3. yellow bullhead yellow bullhead 4. brown trout brown trout5. rainbow trout rainbow trout6. threadfin shad threadfin shad7. common carp common carp8. fathead minnow fathead minnow9. golden shiner golden shiner10. red shiner red shiner

11. mosqu

mosqu

12. plains 

plains 

13. walley

walley

14. striped 

striped 

15. black 

black 

16. bluegi

bluegi

17. green 

green 

18. largem

largem

19. smallm

smallm
NONNATIVE FISH SPECIES A

NONNATIVE FISH SPECIES A

(with possible access) (with possible access)

1. flathead catfish flathead catfish2. gizzard shad gizzard shad3. grass carp grass carp4. redside redside shiner 5. sand shiner sand shiner 6. Utah chub Utah chub7. blue tilapia blue tilapia

Threadfin

Gizzard

Grass Carp
2. EVALUATE BENEF

EVALUATE BENEF

(Risk Assessment M

(Risk Assessment M

A. Evaluate benefits of temper

Evaluate benefits of temper

change to humpback chub 

change to humpback chub 

native fish species. native fish species.

B. Quantify risks associated w

Quantify risks associated w

response of nonnative fish 

response of nonnative fish 

water temperatures. water temperatures.
Risk Assessment M

Risk Assessment M

11 Model Parame

11 Model Parame

1. Presence/absence by 

Presence/absence by 

2. Maximum adult size Maximum adult size 

3. Food habits Food habits4. Known competitor/pr

Known competitor/pr

5. Preferred temperatur

Preferred temperatur

6. Reproductive potenti

Reproductive potent

7. Multiple (fractional) s

Multiple (fractional) s

8. Riverine species Riverine species9. Adapted to fast river Adapted to fast river10. Diurnal/ Diurnal/noctural noctural feed

11. Temperature Degree 

Temperature Degree 

Base Parameters
TAXA IN RISK MO

TAXA IN RISK MO

3⁄4 36 Fish Species 36 Fish Species3⁄4 4 Fish Parasites (AT, LC, TN

4 Fish Parasites (AT, LC, TN

3⁄4 9 Zooplanktors 9 Zooplanktors3⁄4 12 Primary producers 12 Primary producers3⁄4 19 Macroinvertebrates 19 Macroinvertebrates

80 Taxa Total 80 Taxa Total
Six Reaches for Six Reaches for

Risk Assessment Risk Assessment

2

4

5

6
0 10 20 3

Degrees Centigrade

FHC

SSH

CHC

TIL

TFS

P KF

YBL

GSFBLGBBL

SPD

M QF

GCP

GZS

CCP

BYT

UCH

LM BHBC

FHM

CPM

RSHGSHBHS

STB

RTC

BCR

SM B

LCS

RBS

FMS

ZBS

RDSRBTBRTWYE

Cool and Cold 

Water Species

Warm Water

Species

Obligate W

Water Spe
0 10 20 3

Degrees Centigrade

FHC

SSH

CHC

TIL

TFS

P KF

YBL

GSFBLGBBL

SPD

M QF

GCP

GZS

CCP

BYT

UCH

LM BHBC

FHM

CPM

RSHGSHBHS

STB

RTC

BCR

SM B

LCS

RBS

FMS

ZBS

RDSRBTBRTWYE

Cool and Cold 

Water Species

Warm Water

Species

Obligate W

Water Spe
0 10 20 3

Degrees Centigrade

FHC

SSH

CHC

TIL

TFS

P KF

YBL

GSFBLGBBL

SPD

M QF

GCP

GZS

CCP

BYT

UCH

LM BHBC

FHM

CPM

RSHGSHBHS

STB

RTC

BCR

SM B

LCS

RBS

FMS

ZBS

RDSRBTBRTWYE

Cool and Cold 

Water Species

Warm Water

Species

Obligate W

Water Spe
No Action Water Temperature Bounds

Lake Powell Release

05

1015202530

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month

Water Temp (C)

Action Alternative (Two-Unit TCD) Water Temperature Bounds

Lake Powell Release

05

1015202530

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month

Water Temp (C)

Action Alternative (Two-Unit TCD) Water Temperature Bounds

Little Colorado River

05

1015202530

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month

Water Temp (C)

Minimum, temperaturPredicted treleases wPredicted tColorado Ra 2-unit SWModel uses 
Glen Canyon Dam to Paria River

(Median Temperatures)

0

50

100150200250

HB

FM

BH

RZ

SD

RB

BR

RD

GD

CP

FH

RS

CC

PK

MF

SB

BBW

BG

GS

LMS

BC

TS

GZ

TL

GC

FC

Assessment Scores

NO ACTION2 UNITS

Paria River to LCR

(Median Temperatures)

0

50

100150200250

HB

FM

BH

RZ

SD

RB

BR

RD

GD

CP

FH

RS

CC

PK

MF

SB

BBW

BG

GS

LMS

BC

TS

GZ

TL

GC

FC

Assessment Scores

NO ACTION2 UNITS

Glen Canyon Dam to Paria RiverParia River to LCR

Respto 2-u

LCR to Bridge Canyon (Median Temperatures)

0

50

100150200250

HB

FM

BH

RZ

SD

RB

BR

RD

GD

CP

FH

RS

CC

PK

MF

SB

BBW

BG

GS

LMS

BC

TS

GZ

TL

GC

FC

Assessment Scores

NO ACTION2 UNITS

Bridge Canyon to Pearce Ferry

(Median Temperatures)

0

50

100150200250

HB

FM

BH

RZ

SD

RB

BR

RD

GD

CP

FH

RS

CC

PK

MF

SB

BBW

BG

GS

LMS

BC

TS

GZ

TL

GC

FC

Assessment Scores

NO ACTION2 UNITS

LCR to Bridge CanyonBridge Canyon to Pearce Ferry

SAMPLE OU
Glen Canyon Dam to Paria River

0

255075

100125150175200225

RB BR CP FH RS CC SM

Assessment Scores and 

Percent Difference

No Action 2 Units % Difference

Paria River to LCR

0

255075

100125150175200225

RB BR CP FH RS CC SM

Assessment Scores and 

Percent Difference

No Action 2 Units % Difference

N
Glen Canyon Dam to Paria River

0

20406080

100120140160

HB FM BH RZ SD

Assessment Scores and 

Percent Difference

No Action 2 Units % Difference

Paria River to LCR

0

20406080

100120140160

HB FM BH RZ SD

Assessment Scores and 

Percent Difference

No Action 2 Units % Difference
Fish Species of Greate

Fish Species of Great

(aka: The Dirty Dozen

(aka: The Dirty Dozen

1. Smallmouth bass Smallmouth bass

—predaceous, pro

predaceous, pro

2. Brown trout Brown trout

—predaceous predaceous

3. Rainbow trout Rainbow trout

—competitor, predato

competitor, predato

4. Red shiner Red shiner

—prolific, predaceous, c

prolific, predaceous, c

5. Common carp Common carp

—omnivorous, prolifi

omnivorous, prolifi

6. Channel catfish Channel catfish

—nocturnal predato

nocturnal predato

7. Fathead minnow Fathead minnow

—tolerant, compet

tolerant, compet

8. Green sunfish Green sunfish

—prolific, predaceou

prolific, predaceou

9. Black bullhead Black bullhead

—nocturnal omnivor

nocturnal omnivor

10. Walleye Walleye

—predaceous! predaceous!

11. Flathead catfish Flathead catfish

—predaceous, prol

predaceous, prol

12. Grass carp Grass carp

—vegetarian, fluvial vegetarian, fluvial
3. MONITORING STR

MONITORING STR

1. Recognize Sources Recognize Sources 

2. Identify Habitat Guilds Identify Habitat Guilds—BW

BW

MS

3. Target Life Stage Target Life Stage—season, 

season, 

habitat habitat

4. Synoptic Sampling Initially Synoptic Sampling Initially

5. Use Appropriate Gear Array Use Appropriate Gear Array
LAKE MEAD

Channel catfishRed shinerFathead minnowPlains killifishLargemouth bassWalleyeStriped bassTilapia

OUTSIDE SOURCESFlathead catfishGrass carpRedside shinerSand shinerRock bassCrayfish

TRIBUTARIESRed shinerFathead minnowPlains killifishGreen sunfishLargemouth bassChannel catfishRock bass**

5 Sourc

RESIDENT

19 Species
FISH OF GREATEST 

FISH OF GREATEST 

(Reproductive Habitat 

(Reproductive Habitat 

Species Spawning/Nursery Juveniles 

smallmouth bass, green sunfish

Guarded nests in 1-3 ft on GR, CO

Shallow shores in structure

brown trout, rainbow trout

Shallow GR, CO bars

Shorelines 

red shiner, fathead minnow, redsideshiner, common carp

Shallow warm quiet backwaters, shorelines

Warm backwatersshorelines

channel catfish, black bullhead, flathead catfish

Crevices, structure Shallow, near 

structure

walleye Broadcast over 

riffles

Shallow shores in structure

grass carp Pelagic spawners in 

flowing water

Shallows with vegetation
4. CONTROL/REMO

CONTROL/REM

1. Identify sensitive life Identify sensitive life stage(s stage(s)—”Ach

Ach

2. Exercise flow options, when possibl

Exercise flow options, when possibl

3. Implement mechanical control, as ne

Implement mechanical control, as ne

4. Establish success criteria (Ricker, Establish success criteria (Ricker, B

B

Shaefer Shaefer)

5. Develop/implement institutional con

Develop/implement institutional con

(nonnative fish stocking policy) (nonnative fish stocking policy)

NOTE: Once certain species have becom

NOTE: Once certain species have becom

they cannot be eradicated! they cannot be eradicated!
HOW MANY FISH MUS

HOW MANY FISH MUS

REMOVED TO AFFE

REMOVED TO AFFE

REPRODUCTIVE/RECRU

REPRODUCTIVE/RECRU

POTENTIAL? POTENTIAL?

“Break The Back of The Po

Break The Back of The Po
Stock-Recruitment Utah Lake Ca

0.02.04.06.08.0

10.0

0 2 4 6 

Age 3+ Spawners (P x 10

6

A = M SY; B = M ax recruitment; C = Replac

Age 1 Recruits (R x 107)

Pr=6,

Replacement Line

A

C

Ricker Curve

R=

aPe(-

BP)

B

Pm=4,115,226

Ricker Stock Recruitment Cu

Utah Lake Carp
Schaefer Yield Curve -- Utah Lake 

Y = 10.961Ln(x) + 11.932

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 24 6 8

Effort (Years)

Unrestricted Harvest

“Tragedy of the Commons