U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey

What’s it worth? GCDAMP 

economic surveys and their utility 

in decision making.

Lucas Bair, U.S. Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, 

Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center

GCDAMP Annual Reporting Meeting 2018

Flagstaff, Arizona 

U. S. Department of Interior

U.S. Geological Survey
Nonmarket Values for the Effects of 

Complex Dam Operations
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_the_Grand_Canyon_National_Park_1926.jpg 

The Grand Canyon Protection Act of 1992 states 

that, long-term monitoring of Glen Canyon Dam shall 

include necessary research and studies to determine 

the effect of the Secretary's actions on natural, 

recreational, and cultural resources.
• Hydropower modeling

– Economic and financial 

• Recreation surveys

– Angling and whitewater

• Tribal surveys

• Passive use surveys

2009 GCRMC Socioeconomic 

Research Review Panel 
Nonmarket Resources

• Nonmarket resources are goods and services 

not traded in markets. 

– Recreation 

– Fish and wildlife

– Air quality

• Economic values for nonmarket resources are 

estimated through observational data or 

surveys.
http://fsflyfishing.com/lodge-lees-ferry-anglers-arizona-us

Revealed Preference Method

• Estimates economic value of resources through 

analyzing people’s choices when those choices 

are observable. 

• GCMRC used creel data to estimate the 

economic value of angling at Lees Ferry and 

identified angler preferences influencing the 

economic value.
Angler Economic Value and Season

Bootstrapped aggregate model seasonal benefit estimates at Lees 

Ferry with confidence intervals at the 95% level (2014 dollars)

Lucas S. Bair, David L. Rogowski & Chris Neher (2016) Economic Value of Angling on the Colorado River at Lees 

Ferry: Using Secondary Data to Estimate the Influence of Seasonality, North American Journal of Fisheries 

Management, 36:6, 1229-1239, DOI: 10.1080/02755947.2016.1204388
Stated Preference Method

• Estimates economic value for resources 

through analyzing people’s choices as stated 

responses in a survey.

• GCMRC surveyed private whitewater boaters 

to estimate the economic value of a river trip 

and identified boater preferences influencing 

the economic value.

https://www.oars/grandcanyon/
Whitewater Economic Value and Flow

Chris J. Neher, John Duffield, Lucas S. Bair, David Patterson, Katherine Neher. Testing the limits of temporal stability: willingness to pay values 

among Grand Canyon whitewater boaters across decades. Water Resources Research, 53, 2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020729

Estimated Mean Willingness to Pay

Colorado River flow in cubic feet per second
Colorado River Total Value Study

Chris J. Neher, John Duffield, David Patterson. 2016. Colorado River Total Values Study. Final Report, University of Montana, Department of 

Mathematical Sciences, Prepared for the National Park Service, August.
Inclusive Approach to 

Nonmarket Valuation
Survey Takeaways

‘There are significant values 

associated with 

environmental services 

provided by the Grand 

Canyon’ (Neher et al 2016).

‘Substantial evidence suggests 

that segments of the public hold 

non-market values...for both 

riverine environmental effects 

and...external effects of 

hydropower production and 

distribution’ (Jones et al. 2017).
Trout Management Flows

Adapted from: Glen Canyon Dam Long-Term Experimental and Management Plan December 2015 Draft 

Environmental Impact Statement http://ltempeis.anl.gov/documents/draft-eis/vol1/Chapter_2-Alternatives.pdf

Example implementation of a two-cycle TMF in June and July with resumption of 

normal fluctuations between cycles and afterward

13
Humpback Chub Recovery

Combination of 

management actions 

that achieve long-run 

juvenile humpback chub 

survival targets

Preliminary data, do not cite
Hydropower Scenarios 

and Externalities

Preliminary data, do not cite
Humpback Chub Recovery

Preliminary data, do not cite
Humpback Chub Recovery

Preliminary data, do not cite
Tribal Perspectives for and Values of Resources 

Downstream of Glen Canyon Dam 

Tribal Surveys
Incorporating Tribal Preferences

• Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program

• Federal, state and regional management

• Research and monitoring

• Preferences and values
Representation of Tribal 

Preferences

Chris J. Neher, John Duffield, David Patterson. 2016. Colorado River Total Values Study. Final Report, University of Montana, Department of 

Mathematical Sciences, Prepared for the National Park Service, August.

Black or African American, 

2.64% 

Native Hawaiian or other 

Pacific Islander, 0.56% 

Apache 
Choice Experiments

Chris J. Neher, John Duffield, David Patterson. 2016. Colorado River Total Values Study. Final Report, University of Montana, Department of 

Mathematical Sciences, Prepared for the National Park Service, August.
Intention Based Preferences

Preliminary data, do not cite

River Resource 

Management Tool

Existing 

Management 

Plan—conditions 

over the next 20 

years

Proposed Plan 

A—conditions 

over the next 20 

years

Proposed Plan 

B—conditions 

over the next 20 

years

High flow experiments to 

increase beaches (size and 

number) for recreation # of years HFEs are 

implemented

# of years HFEs are 

implemented

# of years HFEs are 

implemented

Low summer steady flows

to enhance native fish 

populations

Low summer steady 

flows implemented

in second decade

Low summer steady 

flows implemented 

in first decade

No experimental 

low flows

implemented

Trout management flows to 

enhance native fish 

populations

Trout management 

flows implemented 

every five years

Trout management 

flows implemented 

annually

No experimental 

low flows

implemented

Macroinvertebrate flows to 

enhance rainbow trout and 

native fish populations

Macro invertebrate 

flows implemented 

every other year

Macro invertebrate 

flows implemented 

every other year

No 

macroinvertebrate 

flows implemented

Percentage annual 

reduction in Tribal services 

as a result of decreased 

Tribal power 

allocation from Glen 

Canyon Dam

5% reduction in 

Tribal services

10% reduction in 

Tribal services

10 % increases in 

Tribal Services

I would vote for (check only 

one)

  
Adaptive Management

23

Juvenile Chub 

Monitoring Reach

Juvenile Humpback Chub 

Annual Survival (40-100 mm)

Rainbow Trout 

Population Dynamics

Adult Equivalent 

Humpback Chub (100 mm+)

Preliminary data, do not cite
• Questions?

• lbair@usgs.gov

928-556-7362