Targets for Desired Future C

Targets for Desired Future C

Humpback chub 

Sediment

Presented by Shane CapronWestern Area Power Administration
Humpback chub Humpback chub

M.O. 2.1Maintain or athumpback chub abundance and strength in thother aggregaappropriate tafor viable popu

to remove jeop
Humpback chub Humpback chub

Definitions

Viability: Meffe and Carroll (1994) deas “the smallest isolated population sispecified percent chance of remaining a specified period of time in the face foreseeable demographic, genetic, anenvironmental stochasticities, plus nacatastrophes.”
Humpback chub Humpback chub

Definitions

“Jeopardize the continued existence engage in an action that reasonably wexpected, directly or indirectly, to reappreciably the likelihood of both the recovery of a listed species in the wireducing the reproduction, numbers, distribution of that species.Goal: remove the conditions that coujeopardy in a section 7 consultation; we know from the 1994 BO and 2002 
Humpback chub Humpback chub

Strategy: focus on describing targetremove jeopardy and result in a viabl*This is basically what recovery critesupposed to address. Criteria describviable species – and thus actions that recovery are unlikely to jeopardize.*The 2002 Recovery Goals provide thplace to start as it updates informatwithin the 1994 Biological Opinion. Pr
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M.O. 2.2Sustain or establish viable HBC spawning aggregations outside of the LCR in the Colorado River ecosystem below Glen Canyon Dam to remove jeopardy

200GoalrequspawaggrGranreco
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• “first point estimate acceptable to the Service” from the recovery goals language could be made in the 2002-06 range due to robust stock assessments. The average from this time period is about 5,600.

Adult Abundance (Age 4+)

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

0 5000 10000 15000 

KEY ASSUMPTIONS
Humpback chub Humpback chub

KEY ASSUMPTIONS contin

• Stable, healthy populations above 2,1represent minimum viable populations • The revised goals will be similar to 2• All HBC downstream of GCD will be c• A stable population in the range of 5adults should have a 99% persistence over 40 generations (Reed et al. 2003population of 5,600 HBC would be morthan the minimum of 2,100• Further declines in the size of the Lwould increase likelihood of extinction
Humpback chub Target

Humpback chub Target

1. Trend in adul

or increasing 

2. Population es

2002-2006 a(5,600)

3. Recruitment 

meets/exceemortality (MO 

4. Fish conditio

to support ab(MO 2.3)

5. Response plan 

bridges over 

6. Develop plans 

threats
Sediment Sediment

Short- and Long-Term TargetTo slow or reverse the rate of decline of fine sediment deposits at all stages described in Management Objectives 8.1-8.5 over the ten-year period of the LTEP and beyond, throughout the CRE.
Sediment Sediment

Strategy and • Recognize tmay have mubeaches, bac• Sediment dbeen about 2• Assume thadecline can breversed in RBHBFs and H
Sediment Sediment

Strategy and assumptionsStep 1: model long-term average sedilevel that would be sustainable given inputs. Through a trade-off analysis various tools at different levels to determine the level of sediment mass could be sustained with insignificant other key resources.
Sediment Sediment

Strategy and assumptionsStep 2: Translate the optimum sediproduced in Step 1 into an estimate 

•The numbers and size of campinin critical reaches.•The area and number of backwa