U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey

Modeling updates and ne

FY09 Work Plan

8 April 2008 1:30 pm

GCDAMP TWG Meeting, PHX
Physical modeling goals

 Develop and apply predictive models of st

discharge

 Develop and apply predictive models of m

nearshore temperature dynamics

 Develop apply predictive models of mains

transport and sandbar dynamics and stab

 Evaluate “what if” scenarios for dam oper Eventually, provide input to ecological mo
Applications – Stage and di

 Peak flow arrival and departure 

times along the river during high flow releases

 Inundation maps for campsites 

during high flow releases

 Estimation of inundation levels for a 

range of flows

 Provide hydraulic variables (velocity, 

cross-section area, bed shear stress) to other transport models
Applications – Temperature

 Evaluate the effects of release temperatures a

hydrology, TCD) and daily patterns (i.e. level odownstream mainstem and nearshore/backwadynamics

68

10121416182022

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 

Average mainstem water

temperature over last 5 years ( o

C)

BaseOption AOption A variationOption BOption C
Applications – Sediment tra

 Evaluation of the potential for a given operation 

term positive mass balance of sand in Grand C

 Evaluation of the effects of ramping rates on ba Design of high flow hydrographs to optimize sa

while minimizing sand export
Recent progress – Stage and d

Magirl, C.S., M.J

Webb, and Preview). Mode

Elevations anfor the ColoraCanyon, ArizoSurvey Open

HEC-RAS model (steady, uniform flow) to predict stage profiles for a given dischargeUSES SYNTHETIC BATHYMETRY

Grand Ca

0 200 400 600 800 1000

27002720274027602780280028202840

Grand Canyon--total Plan: 1) ErrorMea 4/28/2005 

 CRX SEC AT MI 49.830 WS ELEV 2727.59 @8k CFS WD= 15.53 SH= L

Station (ft)

Elevation (ft)

Legend

WS 15kWS 10k

WS 8k

Ground

Bank Sta

.035 .035 .035

S

ynthetic 

Bathymetry

Accurate (ISTARS) Topography
Recent progress – Temperature 

Anderson, C.R., and S.A. Wright, 2007. Development and applicat

model for the Colorado River ecosystem below Glen Canyon DScience and Technology , vol. 23 (1-4): Proceedings of the Am

2007 Annual Meeting and International Conference, pp. 13-26.

1D mainstem dynamic model: 

Predicts hourly temperatures at any location below the dam for a given release temperature and discharge hydrographModel was used in SPG Options analyses

Voichick, N., and Wright, S.A., 2007. Water-temperature 

tributaries between Glen Canyon Dam and Spencer Cany

2005, U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 251, http://pub
Recent progress – Temperature 

Wright, S.A., Ande

(in review, peaverage wateColorado RiveAZ: River Res

1D mainstem simplified model:Predicts monthly average temperatures at any location below the dam for a given release temperature and release volume

8

101214161820

0

50

Distanc

Water temperature ( oC)

JaApJuOc

-0.005

0.0000.0050.0100.0150.0200.025

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Longitudinal temperature gradient ( o

C/km)

Warming

Cooling

Voichick, N., and Wright, S.A., 2007. Water-temperature 

tributaries between Glen Canyon Dam and Spencer Cany

2005, U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 251, http://pub
Recent progress – Temperature 

Progress on nearshore by lack of data – thus, wnearshore (primarily bamonitoring. Also using weather stations install

Eminence (RM44.5L) 

5

1015202530

Aug-1

Aug-15

Sep-1

Sep-15

Oct-1

Water Temperature (°C)
Recent progress – Temperature 

Multi-dimensional models of eddies

01-Aug-2007 08:30:00

x coordinate (m) 

→

y coordinate (m) →

2.19 2.191 2.192 2.193 2.194 2.195

x 105

5.971

5.9715

5.972

5.9725

5.973

5.9735

5.974

5.9745

5.975

5.9755

x 105

1010.210.410.610.81111.211.411.611.8

We’re developing two types of nearshore tempe

0

10002000300040005000600070008000

0

5000

10000

SA (m2) / Volume (m3)

surf areavolumea/v ratio

Well-mixed 

define
Recent progress – Sediment tra

Wiele, S. M., P. R. Wilco

(2007), Reach-aver

routing model of a cResources Researcdoi:10.1029/2005W

Sand routing model for the reach from Paria confluence to Phantom RanchEvent-based simulations – time scales of weeks to monthsStill has some calibration issues
Recent progress – Sediment tra

Wright, S.A., Topping, D.J., Rubin, D.R., and 

Melis, T.S. (in USGS review). Shifting 

suspended-sediment rating curves for supply-limited conditions, to be submitted to J. Hydraulic Engineering

Simplified sand routing model for simulating the fate of tributary inputs over annual to decadal time scalesShifts the relationship between sand concentration and discharge based on the supply conditions in a reachNeed to test with recent data
Recent progress – Sediment tra

Review panel recommended “updating” Wiele 2model (mid 90s), as new tools have become ava

In the first stages of applying Delft3D model to sandbars (as well as temperature)As with temperature, progress is limited by lack of data in eddies (lots of surveys, not much velocity and concentration data)

x coor

y coordinate (m) →

2.195 2.

6.116

6.1165

6.117

6.1175

6.118

6.1185

6.119

6.1195

6.12

6.1205

x 10
Recent progress – Sediment tra

To address this data gap, we made detailed bathymetric, velocity, and sediment measurements at Eminence and Willie Taylor during 2008 HFE

PROJECT 1B
Task 1 - Multi-dimensional modeling of flow

and sediment transport using Delft3D*

 Calibrate hydrodynamics using velocity data from  Calibrate temperature dynamics using nearshore d Calibrate sediment transport using data from 2004  Through calibration, evaluate the complexity of mo

3D, number of grain-sizes, turbulence model)

 Begin applications to study nearshore warming an

to high flows

* Recom

FY09 Work plan
Task 2 - Sandbar stability modeling and exp

Arizona State University (ramping rate studi

 Ongoing work led by Mark Schmeeckle to stu

ramping rates on sandbar stability

 Physical model studies at ASU lab Numerical model development and applicatio

* Recom

FY09 Work plan
Task 3 - Update and publish "shifting rating c

 Apply model to recent dataset (summer 2006 

2008) as an additional test of the algorithms

 Update manuscript as necessary and submit 

Hydraulic Engineering

 Construct a simple user-interface (Excel) Provide support for LTEP simulations?

* Not reviewed by modeling panel, but recomme

FY09 Work plan
Task 4 - Document and develop user manua

1D sand routing model*

 In order to continue to improve this model (rec

review panel), more extensive documentation 

 Work with Wiele to document the code (and p

other programming languages) and develop a for existing version (facilitating further calibrat

* First step toward following the review (continued calibration and improvemen

FY09 Work plan
Task 5 - Begin development of integrated 1D 

and stage model*

 Our existing flow (UNSTEADY) and stage (HEC-R

incorporate recently collected bathymetric data (Usingle x-section, HEC-RAS uses synthetic bathym

 We now have bathymetry for much of Marble Can

Core Monitoring will eventually survey the entire r

 With this bathymetry, HEC-RAS can be used for u

wave routing) and stage predictions, in a single pimproved predictive capabilities

 This task will begin the development of this capab

where bathymetry is available

* Review panel recommended updating HEC-R

FY09 Work plan
Work plan and budget

 Task 1 – Multi-dimensional modeling

FY09 - $196,574 FY10 – continuing, potentia

 Task 2 – Sandbar stability modeling

FY09 - $26,523 FY10 – potentially continuin

 Task 3 – Shifting rating curve model

FY09 - $31,419 FY10 – zero, completion in 

 Task 4 – Sand routing model user’s man

FY09 - $25,129 FY10 – zero, completion in 

 Task 5 – Integrated 1D hydrodynamic m

FY09 - $28,241 FY10 – continuing

FY09 total: $319FY10 ~ 70% of 

Travel and publications costs: $12,100
Future of modeling project

 Modeling project should not be considered “over” o

model developments are finished (likely in the nex

 Development will result in a “toolbox” of models. T

maintenance and updating, and staff who know ho

 For example, as new monitoring and research flow 

available, models should incorporate improved unsystem dynamics

 Thus, modeling project should continue in a scaled 

alongside the Core Monitoring project