National Park Ser

National Park Ser

Desired Future Con

Desired Future Con

Humpback chub Humpback chub

and

Sediment Sediment

Melissa Trammell, Norm Henderson, Ken McMullen
Scientific Rationale for NPS DF

Scientific Rationale for NPS DF

 The Grand Canyon National Park (G The Grand Canyon National Park (GCNP) resou CNP) resources 

rces 

day workshops to arrive at the day workshops to arrive at the DFC's and targets pr

and targets pr

TWG/Science Plan AHG in 2006. GCNP followed this 

TWG/Science Plan AHG in 2006. GCNP followed this 

the original the original DFCs:

– Search NPS Managem Search NPS Management Policies for direction on reso

ent Policies for direction on r

eso

protection, restoration and preventing impairment of p

protection, restoration and preventing impairment of p

– Identify legal mandates/requirements and park com Identify legal mandates/requirements and park compl

pl

applicable legislation (e.g. Organic Act, ESA, Clean Air

applicable legislation (e.g. Organic Act, ESA, Clean Air

Trust responsibilities, etc.,); Trust responsibilities, etc.,); 

– Identify and com Identify and comply with Park Ma ply with Park Ma

nagement Plans and 

agement Plans and 

objectives for park and river co objectives for park and river corridor resources manag

rridor resources manag

Resources Management Program direction; Resources Management Program direction;

– Staff consulted with or/an Staff consulted with or/and utilized previous and curre

d utilized previous and cur

re

Management and Cultural Resource Protection plans, f

Management and Cultural Resource Protection plans, f

project plans, applicable park activity plans, and resea

project plans, applicable park activity plans, and resea

specific target levels. Also, many of the individual reso

specific target levels. Also, many of the individual reso

NEPA directed management plans and projects are req

NEPA directed management plans and projects are req

mitigation measures and measurable values that defin

mitigation measures and measurable values that defin

"success" levels; "success" levels;

– These projects and implementation plans have specific 

These projects and implementation plans have specific 

measures and values for accom measures and values for accomplishment, and funding 

plishment, and funding 

completion. completion.

 Discussed and amended during two Discussed and amended during two AHG workshops 

AHG workshops 

calls

 Reviewed recent resea Reviewed recent research to assess feasibility rch to assess feasibility
NPS Desired Future Cond

NPS Desired Future Cond

Targets for Targets for

Humpback Chub Humpback Chub
Short

-Term Targets Term Targets (1

(1

1. The Grand Canyon population is The Grand Canyon population is maintained 

maintained 

year period, starting with the first point esti

year period, starting with the first point esti

the Fish and Wildlife Service, such that the t

the Fish and Wildlife Service, such that the t

4+ years) humpback chub estimates does n

4+ years) humpback chub estimates does n

significantly. significantly.

2. HBC population estimate is at least 6,500 ad

HBC population estimate is at least 6,500 ad

years, and a positive trend is maintained fro

years, and a positive trend is maintained fro

as determined by ASMR; thus, progress tow

as determined by ASMR; thus, progress tow

target is being made. target is being made.

3. Mean estimated recruitment of age Mean estimated recruitment of age

-3 years 

3 years 

naturally produced fish equals or exceeds m

naturally produced fish equals or exceeds m

mortality. mortality.

4. All aggregations in the All aggregations in the mainstem outside th

outside th

Valdez and Valdez and Ryel (1995) have been maintain

(1995) have been maintain

1993 levels, and at least one viable spawnin

1993 levels, and at least one viable spawnin

outside the LCR in the outside the LCR in the mainstem of at least 

of at least 

years) fish has been established so that the 

years) fish has been established so that the 

partially restored. partially restored. 

5. Develop at least one spawning aggregation 

Develop at least one spawning aggregation 
Additional short Additional short

-term T

term T

6. Prepare, adopt, and implement an 

Prepare, adopt, and implement an 

response/contingency plan, e.g., fo

response/contingency plan, e.g., fo

Cameron bridges spanning the LCR

Cameron bridges spanning the LCR

HBC populations from hazardous m

HBC populations from hazardous m

that could result in catastrophic los

that could result in catastrophic los

population. population. 

7. Assess other emerging threats and 

Assess other emerging threats and 

contingency plan to address them. contingency plan to address them.

8. Implement the other highest priorit

Implement the other highest priorit

listed within the HBC Comprehensiv

listed within the HBC Comprehensiv

are achievable within 10 years. are achievable within 10 years.

9. Implement requirements of Biologi

Implement requirements of Biologi

as necessary. as necessary. 
Rationale Rationale

 6,500 short term target 6,500 short term target

– Point is not to predict exact n

Point is not to predict exact 

to show that a substantial in

to show that a substantial in

technically feasible technically feasible
Linear Extrapolation of 

Linear Extrapolation of 

trend in HBC adult abun

trend in HBC adult abun

y = 235x - 465715

R2 = 0.9938

y = 145x - 285905

R2 = 0.9765

0

100020003000400050006000700080009000

10000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

65608280
Melis et al. 2006 et al. 2006
Projected adult HBC abundance based on nu

recruits (Coggins et al. 2006a) and annual m

(Coggins et al. 2006b)

0

100020003000400050006000700080009000

10000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 

Year

Adult (age 4+) HBC abundance 

Average in 2017 = 670
Annual adult mortality ( Annual adult mortality (Coggins Coggins et al. 2006b

et al. 2006b

Simulated age 1 recruits ( Simulated age 1 recruits (Cogg

Cogg
Rationale Rationale

 6,500 short term target 6,500 short term target Restore all aggregations; o

Restore all aggregations; o

aggregation of 500 spawnin

aggregation of 500 spawni
HBC aggregations as des

HBC aggregations as des

Valdez and Valdez and Ryel 19

RM Aggregation No. Adults

captured

No. Adultsrecaptured

29.8-31.3 30-Mile 26

6 

6557-65.4 LCR Inflow 1524 280 65.7-76.3 Lava to Hance 15

3 

83.8-92.2 Bright Angel inflow

9

1 

108.1-108.6 Shinumo inflow 27

6 

114.9-120.1 Stephen Aisle 17

2 

126.1-129 Middle Granite Gorge 124 48 

155.8-156.7 Havasu Inflow

7

1 

212.5-213.2 Pumpkin Spring

6

2

Bright Angel Creek inflow is the Type locality 
Douglas and Douglas 

Douglas and Douglas 

 only five (of nine) “aggrega

have actual validity as indeassemblages of G. cypha. T

– 30-mile Springs (river mile 30),– Shinumo Creek (river mile 108),– Middle Granite Gorge (river mile – Havasu Creek (river mile 156), an– Pumpkin Springs (river mile 213)

 Others ‘collapsed’ or eliminated 

Bright Angel Creek inflow
HBC aggregations as des

HBC aggregations as des

Douglas and Douglas (

Douglas and Douglas 
HBC Desired Distrib

HBC Desired Distrib

 HBC were more widely distributed in 

HBC were more widely distributed in 

the early 1990 the early 1990’s

 NPS desires to restore the distributi

NPS desires to restore the distributi

the CRE the CRE

 Aggregations in Valdez and Aggregations in Valdez and Ryel (19

(19

goal better than Douglas and Dougl

goal better than Douglas and Dougl

– e.g. Because it is the type locality, Brigh

e.g. Because it is the type locality, Brigh

inflow area should not be eliminated inflow area should not be eliminated 

 Middle Granite Gorge or 30 Middle Granite Gorge or 30

-mile like

mile like

for 500 spawning adults in 10 years

for 500 spawning adults in 10 years

– MGG population nearly doubled from 19

MGG population nearly doubled from 19

98 to 180 adults 98 to 180 adults

– 30

-mile experienced recent reproduction mile experienced recent reproduction 
Rationale Rationale

 6,500 short term target 6,500 short term target Restore all aggregations; o

Restore all aggregations; o

aggregation of 500 spawnin

aggregation of 500 spawni

 Spawning tributary aggreg

Spawning tributary aggreg

– NPS, with cooperation from F

NPS, with cooperation from 

AGFD is planning on AGFD is planning on transloc

transloc

into Shinumo Shinumo Creek to begin 

Creek to begin 

process process
Long

-Term Targets ( Term Targets (more than 

more tha

1. HBC population estimate is at least 10,000 a

HBC population estimate is at least 10,000 a

years, as determined by ASMR. years, as determined by ASMR.

2. All threats criteria for this recovery unit have 

All threats criteria for this recovery unit have 

eliminated. eliminated.

3. The Fish and Wildlife Service has issued a no

The Fish and Wildlife Service has issued a no

adverse modification Biological Opinion on th

adverse modification Biological Opinion on th

Canyon Dam. Canyon Dam.

4. HBC population and distributi HBC population and distribution will meet or 

on will meet or 

targets based on further evaluation of the CR

targets based on further evaluation of the CR

carrying capacity of the river and perennial t

carrying capacity of the river and perennial t

5. A spawning aggregation of at lea A spawning aggregation of at least 1,667 ad

st 1,667 ad

fish has been established in the fish has been established in the mainstem.

6. Spawning aggregations in at lea Spawning aggregations in at least three tribu

st three tribu

developed. developed.

7. Implement the remaining proj Implement the remaining projects listed with

ects listed with

Comprehensive Plan. Comprehensive Plan.

8. Implement requirements of Biological Opinio

Implement requirements of Biological Opinio
Assumptions Assumptions

a. If there were a lower basin recove If there were a lower basin recovery implementat

ry implementat

actions listed in the recovery go actions listed in the recovery goals were impleme

als were impleme

reaching the long reaching the long

-term targets. term targets.

b. Meeting the delisting criteria and issuance of a no

Meeting the delisting criteria and issuance of a no

will contribute to meeting NPS will contribute to meeting NPS’ and other agencie

and other agencie

responsibilities. responsibilities. 

c. The HBC monitoring program will be The HBC monitoring program will be maintained a

maintained a

support evaluation of progress toward targets. support evaluation of progress toward targets.

d. Establishment of in Establishment of in

-situ refuges and transloc situ refuges and translocation 

ation 

actions, will meet NPS management policies rega

actions, will meet NPS management policies rega

range. 

e. The long The long

-term target of 10,000 fish as term target of 10,000 fish as determine

determine

include fish in the include fish in the mainstem spawning aggregatio

spawning aggregatio

than the LCR. than the LCR. 

f. The HBC Comprehensive Plan will be The HBC Comprehensive Plan will be finalized and 

 finalized and 

will include in will include in

-situ refuges and translocat situ refuges and translocations, and 

ions, and 

material spills. material spills. 

g. The 10

-year short year short

-term target period will begin in 

term target period will begin in 

h. With regard to Short With regard to Short

-Term Target #4, the curren

Term Target #4, the curren

of the mainstem aggregations are unknown. The 

aggregations are unknown. The 

the target is achievable in the ti the target is achievable in the timeframe noted. 

meframe noted. 

achievable in the short achievable in the short

-term, it would become a l

term, it would become a l
Differences and Simi

Differences and Simi

 Similarities Similarities

– NPS and Western both begin with Recov

NPS and Western both begin with Recov

language language

– Include targets for adults and for recruit

Include targets for adults and for recruit

above present levels above present levels

 Differences Differences

– NPS sets both short NPS sets both short

-term and long term and long

-term 

term 

adults at levels higher than present leve

adults at levels higher than present leve

resources resources

” GCPA 1992) GCPA 1992)

– NPS sets targets for additional spawning 

NPS sets targets for additional spawning 

(1994 Biological Opinion RPA) (1994 Biological Opinion RPA)

– NPS sets targets for restoring distributio

NPS sets targets for restoring distributio

maintaining additional aggr maintaining additional aggregations as d

egations as d

Valdez and Valdez and Ryel (1995); NPS Manageme

(1995); NPS Manageme

(2006) 
NPS Desired Future Co

Targets for SEDIMEN
Sediment Sediment

 Short

-Term Targets (10 years) Term Targets (10 years)

1. Rebuild and stabilize sandbars, campsites

Rebuild and stabilize sandbars, campsites

habitats to 40 habitats to 40

-45,000 cfs levels, moving t

levels, moving t

post flood values (abundance, grain size, 

post flood values (abundance, grain size, 

including volume and areal extent). including volume and areal extent). 

2. Achieve a positive mass balance of fine se

Achieve a positive mass balance of fine se

the CRE. the CRE.

 Assumptions Assumptions 

– Short

-Term Targe

Term Targe

a. Under low water conditions, dam operatio

Under low water conditions, dam operatio

up to 40 up to 40

-45,000 cfs) can be used to achie

) can be used to achie

b. Sediment supplies will be adequate to sus

Sediment supplies will be adequate to sus

shoreline habitats and protect and enhanc

shoreline habitats and protect and enhanc

and other deposits. and other deposits.

c. By meeting the target, we will By meeting the target, we will also make 

also make 

aeolian aeolian transport to upper benches to enh

transport to upper benches to enh

community function and protect cultural s

community function and protect cultural s

d. Management actions other than dam oper

Management actions other than dam oper

to reach the targets. to reach the targets.
Sediment Sediment

 Long

-Term Targets (more than 10 

Term Targets (more than 10 

1. Conserve sediment throughout the system 

Conserve sediment throughout the system 

shore habitat and restore riparian function. shore habitat and restore riparian function

 ‘Restore Restore’ ecosystem function (elements and 

ecosystem function (elements an

that recognize specific influences on the ec

that recognize specific influences on the ec

existence of the dam and non existence of the dam and non

-natives, to t

natives, to t

possible through conservation of sediment. possible through conservation of sediment

 Protect and maintain OHW zone/terrace de

Protect and maintain OHW zone/terrace de

vegetation. vegetation.

 Maintain a neutral mass balance in the Maintain a neutral mass balance in the ma

achievement of 1983 achievement of 1983

-85 sediment deposits

85 sediment deposits

 CRE cultural resources continue to be prote

ultural resources continue to be prote

sediment Aeolian transport and enhanced n

sediment Aeolian transport and enhanced 

community function. community function.

2. Rebuild and stabilize sandbars, campsites, 

Rebuild and stabilize sandbars, campsites, 

habitats to 1983 habitats to 1983

-1985 post flood valu 1985 post flood values (a

es (a

size, and distribution including volume and 

size, and distribution including volume and 

hydrologic and safety conditions and opera

hydrologic and safety conditions and opera

permit (e.g., 60,000 permit (e.g., 60,000

-93,000 cfs releases a

releases a

availability). availability).
Sediment Sediment

 Assumptions Assumptions – Long-Term Targe

Term Targe

a.Assumes higher water volume availabilit

Assumes higher water volume availabili

discharges greater than power plant and 

discharges greater than power plant and 

capacity. capacity. 

b.Enough sediment will accumulate in the 

Enough sediment will accumulate in the 

provide sufficient sediment to achieve ta

provide sufficient sediment to achieve ta

c. Despite historical losses of sediment in t

Despite historical losses of sediment in t

dam can be operated to meet the target

dam can be operated to meet the target

d. Management actions other than dam op

Management actions other than dam op

used to reach the targets. used to reach the targets.

 Process Process

– Over the 10 Over the 10-year period beginning in 20

year period beginning in 20

the short the short-term assumptions are valid. term assumptions are valid.
Sediment Rationa

Sediment Rationa

 Short

-term

– The present conditions could The present conditions could be improve

be improve

BHBF tests, thus making BHBF tests, thus making progress towar

progress towar

goal

– Much remains to be learned about sedim

Much remains to be learned about sedim

management in the Grand Canyon that 

management in the Grand Canyon that 

from additional BHBF tests from additional BHBF tests 

 Long

-term

– The conditions immediately following th

The conditions immediately following th

were acceptable and NPS would like to r

were acceptable and NPS would like to r

beaches and backwaters in the CRE to t

beaches and backwaters in the CRE to t

keeping with our mandate to improve re

keeping with our mandate to improve re

– It should be possible to establish measu

It should be possible to establish measu

aspects of distribution, abundance, area

aspects of distribution, abundance, area

aerial photos and data collection aerial photos and data collection
Monitoring Programs
Sediment Sediment

Differences and Simila

Differences and Simila

 Similarities Similarities

– NPS and Western both include targets fo

NPS and Western both include targets fo

distribution, volume and areal extent of 

distribution, volume and areal extent of 

associated beaches and habitat) associated beaches and habitat)

 Differences Differences

– NPS sets both short NPS sets both short

-term and long term and long

-term 

term 

levels higher than present levels ( levels higher than present levels (

“impro

impro

GCPA 1992) GCPA 1992)

– Western sets target to Western sets target to ‘slow or reverse t

slow or reverse t

decline) decline)

– NPS assumes that improvement is possi

NPS assumes that improvement is poss

present sediment input levels, and that 

present sediment input levels, and that 

losses of sediment in the system, the da

losses of sediment in the system, the da

operated to meet the targets operated to meet the targets

– Western assumes that decline may only 

Western assumes that decline may only 
T