CHANGING CLIMATE

J. O. Fletcher

t

September, 1968

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CHANGING CLD1ATE

J. O. Fletcher*

The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California

ABSTRACT

The following questions are discussed

1. Is global climate changing?

2. What is the pattern of global climatic change?

3. What causes global climate to change?

4. Is man's activity inadvertently influencing global climate?

5. What are the possibilities for purposefully influencing

global climate?

6. What interest and competence have been shown by nations of

the world in global climate control?

7. What can be done to speed progress?

Any views expressed in this paper are those of the author.

They should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the RAND

Corporation or the official opinion or policy of any of its governmental or private research sponsors. Papers are reproduced by The

RAND Corporation as a courtesy to members of its staff.

This summary statement was prepared as an individual contribution

to a more comprehensive RAND review of weather and climate control.

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1. IS GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGING? .

The climate of a particular region is determined by a number of

relatively static factors such as elevation, latitude, topography,

and type of surface, and also by the properties of the air which passes

over it. The dynamic factor which causes weather changes is the circulation of the atmosphere. Variations in the mean behavior of the

atmospheric circulation over a period of years constitutes a variation

of climate.

Substantial, worldwide changes of climate do occur, even within

the span of a few decades, and have been described by many investigators

(Mitchell, 1963, Willett, 1965; Lamb, 1966, Rubinstein and Polozova,

1966). The data clearly show that the general vigor of the global

atmospheric circulation undergoes significant variations, with associated latitudinal shifts of the main zonal currents and changes in the

nature of their disturbances. Variation in the global circulation pattern is the common factor which makes possible a coherent interpretation of climatic data from all parts of the earth.

For example, during the first three decades of this century the

trend was toward growing strength of the northern hemisphere zonal

circulation, northward displacement of polar fronts in both the atmosphere and the ocean, northward displacement of the ice boundary,

weaker development of blocking anticyclones over the continents, more

northward cyclone paths and pronounced aridity of the south central

parts of North America and Eurasia (the dust bowl). Conversely, recent

decades have exhibited opposite trends: weakening zonal circulation,

southward shifts of ice boundary and cyclone paths, and substantially

increased rainfall in the south central parts of the continents.

1968, thus far, has u'nderscored these trends. Icelandic fishermen suffered great losses due to the most extensive sea ice in the

last 60 years, while phenomenal wheat yields from the central plains,

both North American and Eurasian, have pushed wheat prices to a 26-

year low. Even India produced so much wheat that its storage facilities were fully utilized, blocking the acceptance of U.S. surplus

shipments. (Although as recently as Christmas, 1967, it was widely

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predicted that millions of Indians would die of starvation in 19M.

These cases illustrate that our complex pattern of human act1/it is

sensitive to relatively small variations in climate. But the range

of variation of global climate is enormous. Less than 20,000 years

ago the Pleistocene ice sheet still covered North Amerita from the

Atlantic to the Pacific with a thickness of up to two miles. The

last major ice sheet disappeared from Scandinavia about 8000-7000 Br.,

while in North America the ice retreated at an even later date. During

the period of ice retreat and somewhat after, rainfall in the Mediterranean area and perhaps over much of the hemisphere was less than at

present, possibly due to cooler oceans. The post glacial warming

culminated in the "climatic optimum" of 4000-2000 BC, during which

world temperatures were 4-5°F warmer than they are now and rain was

much more plentiful in North Africa, where the Egyptian civilization

was developing.

The decline from the warm optimum was abrupt from about 1000 BC,

with cooling continuing to about 400 BC. This was a period of maximum

North African rainfall and rapid development of human activity, partly

induced by climatic stress. For example, a period of stormy climate

in the North Sea area at about 120 BC set the Teutonic peoples on the

move. By this time renewed warming had set in which continued until

the "secondary climatic optimum" of 800-1000 AD. This period was

characterized by a relatively dry, warm and storm-free North Atlantic

and was the time of the great Viking colonization of Iceland, Greenland

and Newfoundland. The decline, from about 1300 AD with one partial

recovery about 1400-1550, continued until about 1750, culminating in

the "little ice age" of 1550-1840. During this period Arctic pack

ice advanced in the North Atlantic and the Greenland and Newfoundland

colonies were extinguished. .

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II. WHAT IS THE PATTERN OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

Only during the last century have we begun to observe our global

ocean/atmosphere system in enough detail to discern some of the patterns of climatic change, but even today, our ability to observe the

essential elements of the global system is far from adequate. However,

some of the characteristic features of global climatic changes are

now emerging, and have been described by several authors, most completely by Lamb (1966a). The pattern is so complex and so much influenced by various ocean/atmosphere feedback interactions that no

investigator has thus far put forward a plausible physical explanation,

and it has only been possible to describe in increasing detail how

the global system changes. In piecing together this picture the connecting factors that make possible a rational description of global

climate are the general vigor of the global atmospheric circulation,

and to an increasing extent, the variation of sea surface temperatures

in response to changing atmospheric circulation.

Since the "little iceage" of 1650-1840, which climaxed the cooling

trend from about 1300, a new warming trend predominated which seems to

have reached a climax in the 1920's, followed by cooling since about

1940, at first irregularly but then sharply since about 1960. The

periods of general warming were accompanied by increasing vigor of the

westerly zonal circulation in both hemispheres, bringing a more maritime climate to the continents, more northerly cyclone tracks and a

prononaced warming of the Arctic. (From 1890 to 1940 the mean thickness of Arctic pack ice decreased by more than 1/3 (Ahlmann, 1945).

Since about 1940 the reverse pattern has occurred, with weakened zonal

circulation, greater development of blocking anticyclones over continents in winter, more variable and southerly cyclone paths, and a

colder Arctic.

Neither the warming trend nor the cooling trend proceeded

smoothly; on the contrary, there seem to have been critical thresholds

at which sudden changes occurred. Some of the characterstics of these

sudden changes are now beginning to be revealed.

For example, sea surface temperatures and sea ice extent.

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During the warming from 1840 to 1930 a sudden change seems to

have occurred about 1893-95, characterized by sharp increase in zonal

westerlies and a concurrent decrease of rainfall associated with the

intertropical convergence zone (Kraus 1954, 1955, 1956, 1959, 1963).

Lonversely, after the gradual and variable cooling since 1940, a sudden decrease in westerly circulation occurred about 1961-63, with a

concurrent increase of rainfall in the intertropical convergence

zone. At the same time the intertropical convergence zone seems to

have narrowed and increased in zonality (Lamb, 1966d). Associated with

these changes in the intensity of the main zonal circulation, there

has been a shift in the mean longitudinal positions of the climatic

troughs and ridges: eastward with growing wind speed, westward with

weakening wind speed, accompanied by an associated major displacement

of rainfall and drought patterns (see Fig. 10 from Lamb, 1966d). The

economic consequences of these shifts are enormous, as was noted at

the beginning of this paper in reference to India's 1968 wheat surplus.

The greatest obscurity in the observed behavior of the atmosphere .

is in the southern hemisphere. No reliable index has been found for

the strength of the southern hemisphere trade winds and even the

indices of zonal westerlies are suspect, coming from either New

Zealand or Chile and not extending far enough south. Temperature

patterns for the 80 per cent of the southern hemisphere covered by

oceans are nonexistent. Even since the IGY, year to year variations

in the sea ice covering 13 per cent of the southern hemisphere ocean

&n winter are largely unknown. However, the meager data that are

available strongly suggest that the "worldwide" warming and cooling

referred to above extended only to about 60°S, beyond which the secular trends were in the opposite direction (Lamb 1966c) (Fletcher,

1968).

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III. WHAT CAUSES GLOBAL CLIM.ATE 10 CHANGE?

No one has been able to explain why such climatic variations occur. They seem to be associated with variations in the vigor af the

whole global atmospheric circulation, but why the global system varies

is still a mystery. It follows that the fundamental problem in the

study of climatic change is the development of a quantitative understanding of the general circulati.cn of the atmosphere, and, since

three-fourths of the heat which forces the atmospheric motion comes

by way of the ocean surface, a quantitative understanding of oceanic

heat transport and ocean/atmosphere heat exchange is especially vital.

Such an understanding should begin with the planetary distribution

of heat loss and gain by the atmosphere and ocean, and by using the

fundamental physical laws (embodied in the classical equations of

motion and thermodynamics) should enable us to predict the global distribution of temperature, pressure, motion, water vapor, clouds and

precipitation, together with resulting moisture and heat transports.

Ln principle, such an analytic approach is straightforward and was

outlined by V. Bjerknes in 1904 (Fletcher, 1965, p. 149). In practice, however, there are enormous difficulties. The late John von

Neumann, who led the modern assault on the problem of mathematical

simulation of the atmosphere has been quoted as saying that "forecasting the weather for more than a day or two in advance is the

most complicated and difficult physical and mathematical puzzle yet

proposed or even thought of" (Thompson and Roberts, 1967).

Nevertheless, with the development of modern computer technology,

rapid progress is being made. Already it is becoming possible to simulate mathematically certain large-scale processes in more detail than

we observe them in nature. (For a survey of the background and present

status of atmospheric modeling, see Gavrilin, 1965.)

This progress toward simulating atmospheric dynamics calla for ..

better understanding of the processes of atmospheric heat losses and

gains which force the motion of the real atmosphere. Although the

general atmospheric circulation is forced by an uneven distribution

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of heating between the equator and the poles, variations in equatorial

heating and variations in polar cooling are poorly understood and

little studied, largely because of the paucity of relevant data over

the oceans.

Nevertheless, it has been discovered that significant anomalies

of ocean/atmosphere heat and moisture exchange do occur and that these

anomalies are closely related to variations in the dynamical behavior

of the atmosphere.

The first ocean area to receive detailed study was the North

Atlantic (Sandstrom, 1932) and these studies have since been extended

by many investigators to encompass the whole Atlantic (Shishkov, 1962;

Bjerknes, 1964; Sorkina, 1965; Namias, 1966).

In recent years the emphasis of leading investigators has

shifted to the Pacific, where even larger anomalies of ocean/atmosphere heat exchange have been found to occur, both in the equatorial

zone (Bjerknes, 1958, 1959, 1960, 1966, 1968) and in the mid-latitudinal

North Pacific (Wyrtki, 1966) (Namias, 1968).

For example, one very influential ocean/atmosphere interaction

which is subject to large and sudden anomalies is associated with

the zone of cold water at the equator, which is caused by the opposite

deflection of surface water north and south of the equator in response

to the easterly trade winds. In the eastern Pacific, the temperature

difference between this upwelling water and the warm waters on either

side is normally several degrees and extends for several thousand miles.

In the Indian ocean, the 1963-64 expedition found a cold equatorial

tongue nearly 10° colder than surrounding waters. (28°C-18°C)

(Lamb 1966d)

During some years these cold tongues weaken or vanish as the

equatorial trade winds wane. Bjerknes has documented several such

cases for the Pacific, showing that the resulting variation of evaporation and subsequent condensation influences the circulation of the

whole northern hemisphere. Similar studies for the Indian Ocean have

not yet been conducted. due to the lack of data, but it seems likely

that similar processes are associated with the Phenomenal rise of

East African rainfall since 1961-63., Indeed, the frequency of such

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occurrences may be closely connected with the abrupt changes in

the global system since 1961-63. (Lamb, 1966d)

Unfortunately, we do not know why the equatorial trade winds

wane. Presumably this has to do with the strength and position of the

southern hemisphere oceanic anticyclones, the strength of the southern

zonal westerlies and the longitudinal shifts of mean troughs and ridges.

There is growing evidence that variations of the northern hemisphere

circulation are related to variations of the much stronger southern

hemisphere circulation, but the basic cause of the planetary variation

is still a mystery.

Impressive statistical correlations between various indices of

climatic change and various indices of solar activity have been presented by many investigators (Fairbridge, 1961, Rubinshteyn, 1966),

but no one has been able to advance a physically-plausible cause and

effect explanation. Variations in the solar "constant" are usually

judged to be too small to account for the relatively large observed

variations of global climate (Sawyer, 1966). As a result, much attention has been directed towards searching for mechanisms by which

upper atmosphere processes, triggered by small changes in the energy

from the sun, can in turn influence much more energetic tropospheric

processes. However, a better understanding of ocean/atmosphere interactions may reveal that feedback processes can amplify the effect of

small solar variations to produce large changes in the behavior of the

planetary system. One such "thermal lever" is the variable extent of

ice on the ocean. (Fletcher 1965, 1968). The presence of ice on the

sea effectively Prevents heat transfer from ocean to atmosphere in

winter, thus forcing the atmosphere to balance the heat lost to space.

A decrease in solar radiation tends to cause cooling, which causes

ice extension, which in turn cools the atmosphere more and causes mone

ice growth and stronger thermal gradients. The causes and effects are

seif reinforcing, proiriding "Positive feedback." How far such a procése must go beford triggering other instabilities in the ocean/atmosphÈte system, such as he sudden variation of equatorial temperature

ibed above, énhnd udged at this time. Clearly, there are

shie ceases, both positive and negative, in the

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ocean/atmosphere "climate machine" and many thresholds beyond which

the direction of the feedback can change. For example, suppose that

the warming of the Arctic, which by 1940 had greatly reduced the Pack

ice thickness, had continued. As the ice receded farther in summer

and the thinner ice was more fractured in winter, evaporation would

greatly increase, thus salinifying and cooling the surface waters and

decreasing the vertical stability of the upper layers of the ocean.

If this process continued to the point of destroying the present

strong stratification of ocean surface layers and inducing deep convection, then refreezing at the surface would be impossible until the

whole water column had cooled to freezing temperature - a process

p

which would take many years at the least. After the whole ocean had

cooled to the freezing temperature, additional cooling would refreeze

the surface, thus recreating surface stratification and reformation

of surface ice, the initial condition. Thus a "threshold" exists in

both directions.

Many other examples of "feedback processes" and thresholds, from

small scale to planetary scale, could be given. Some need to be . systematically evaluated quantitatively, by field observation, by

physical explanation, and by laboratory simulation (using mathematical

models of atmospheric and oceanic circulation). Possibly such feedback

processes can amplify the climatic effects of variations in solar

"constant" or variations in atmospheric transparancy caused by volcanic

eruptions. Evidence that atmospheric dustiness is the primary cause of

climatic variations has been presented by Davitaya (1965) and Budyko

(1967ab).

As a final comment on causes of climatic change, the present lack

of understanding can perhaps be underscortd by noting that even the

variable rotation rate of the earth on its axis (due to shifting mass

in the molten core)*cannot be excluded as possible cause. In fact,

impressive statistical correlations relating variable rotation speed

with secular climatic changes have been presented (Maximov, 1954).

This line of investigation was not considered very promising by most

meteorologists, but the different behavior of atmospheric circulation

nee the sudden slowing down of the Earth's rotation in 1961 by 1

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IS NFLUENGING CLOBA L A

Whether human activity has been a significant cause of the large

climatic shifts of the past century is a question which cannot yet be

answered with any confidence. The complexities of global climate are

still too poorly understood so assess the dynamical response of the

system to a given change, yet it is the dynamical response of both

the ocean and the atmosphere that primarily determines climate. However, many investigators have argued that the effects of man's activities are already significant, or even dominant, in changing global

climate. The influencing factors most frequently suggested are carbon

dioxide pollution, smog (dust) pollution and heat pollution. The physical arguments advanced have to do with the effects of these pollutants

on the heat balance of the atmosphere.

Carbon dioxide is one of the three important radiation absorbing

constituents in the atmosphere (along with water vapor and ozone).

There is no doubt that its concentration has been increasing in the

last century, apparently by some 10-15%. The physical effect of a

greater CO2 concentration is to decrease the radiative loss to space.

(Due to the fact that the radiation comes from a higher and hence

cooler level in the atmosphere.) Thus, an increase in CO2

the "greenhouse effect" and causes global warming. Many investigators

have suggested that the warming since 1900 was due to just such an increase in CO2. Callendar (1938, 1961) and Plass (1959) estimate that

a warming of almost 1°F during the last century could be attributed

to this cause, and this is comparable to the warming that that did

occur. It is further estimated that, by the year 2000, a further

warming of 3°F could be caused by CO2. Other authors have estimated

an even greater warming. Nothwithstanding these arguments, the sharp

global cooling of the past decade indicates that other factors are

more influential than increasing CO2+ For exemPle, Moller (1953)

estimates that a 10% change in CO2 can be compensated by a 3% change in

water vapor or 1% change in mean cloudiness. Moreover, the oceans have

an enormous capacity to absorb CO2, which also varies with temperature;

that is, colder oceans can store more CO2. Thus, warming oceans could

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also be a primary cause of increasing CO2 in the atmosphere. In summary,

it appears that, other factors being constant, CO2 from human activity

could cause important changes of global climate during the next few

decades. But, of course, other factors are not constant, and in recent

years have apparently been more influential than the CO2

With regard to heat pollution, Budyko (1962, 1966) points out that,

although the yearly production of energy on earth is now only about

1/2500 of the radiation balance of the Earth's surface, it would become

equal to the surface radiation balance if compounded annually at 10%

for 100 years or 4% for 200 years. (The present growth rate is about

4%, which is a doubling each 17 years). From these numbers we may

conclude that sometime during the next century heat pollution, like

C03, will indeed become important on a global scale. By then we must

learn to compensate for it. But for the time being, and for the next

few decades, it will be insignificant on the global scale.

Budyko (1966) also considers forest belts, irrigation projects,

swamp drainage and creation of reservoirs. Such projects can greatly

influence the climate of a local region, but none seem likely to be

significant compared to global processes.

One of the most rapidly increasing man-made forms of atmospheric

pollution is smog, which includes all forms of industrial pollution.

Bryson (1968) suggests that there has been a turbidity increase of 30%

per decade over Mauna Loa Observatory, which is far from all sources of

pollution. Bryson further argues that a more turbid atmospheric transparency, even by only 3 - 4%, could change the global mean temperature

by 0.7°F, an amount comparable to changes of the last century. 11e

believes that increasing global air pollution, through its effect on

the reflectivity of the earth, is currently dominant over CO2

and solar variation, and is responsible for the temperature decline of

the past decade or two. If Bryson's interpretation is correct, mankind

faces an immediate and urgent problem of global climate control, for

smog production is increasing everywhere at an exponential rate and no

means of curbing this increase are in sight.

Still another form of growing pollution, and one whose possible

e facts have been little studied, is the creation of cirrus cloudiness

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by the exhaust products of high flying aircraft (vapor trails). Increased cloudiness of any form tends to increase the reflectivity of

the earth and, according to Bryson's calculations, a 1% increase in

mean albedo would cool the earth by 3°F. However, it may be noted that

increased cloudiness at high levels greatly reduces radiative loss to

space, and this effect would warm the earth. Thus, the effect of more

or less cloudiness is very great, but the direction of the influence

depends on the type and height of the clouds and on whether they are

in a dark or sunlit region of the earth.

Still other forms of pollution have not as yet been evaluated at

all for their possible influence on climate. For example, fuel expended by ships comes to about 10 tons per year. Assuming 5% incomplete combustion, some 50 million tons per year are released as

Pollutant. Presumably, that fuel which is spread on the sea is consumed by bacteria, but it is unclear just how quickly this takes place.

Where an oil film is allowed to persist, it influences the heat balance

by not only reducing evaporation and turbulent heat flux, but also

lowering the radiative emissivity of the surface.

From the foregoing considerations, we may conclude that man is

Probably inadvertently influencing global climate at the present time.

Certainly several products of man's activity are theoretically influential enough to do so within a few decades. However, there are so many

variables and degrees of freedom in the global system that specific

cause and effect estimates in this regard are very uncertain.

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V. WHAT ARE THE POSSIBILITIES FOR PURPOSEFULLY

INFLUENCING GLOBAL CLIMATE?

Theoretical perspectives for influencing large scale atmospheric

circulation have been formulated by Yudin (1966). Some of his conclusions can be summarized as follows:

a. In order to divert air movement over a given region, it is

theoretically most effective to apply energy evenly over broad

portions of the air mass. This is necessary in order to minimize the dissipation of energy by parasitic acoustical and

gravity waves. In other words, the partitioning of the applied

energy among the various scales of atmospheric motion depends

on the suddenness with which it is applied.

b. To. influence the field of motion, in addition to Criterion

(a), it is also desirable to avoid intermediate links involving conversion of thermal energy to potential energy, then

to kinetic energy. More direct methods must be found,

c. In theory, it should be possible to change the velocity field

with much less energy than would be necessary to change the

temperature field or pressure field. Direct action is much

more effective than thermal action,

d. Investigation of conditions of stability for atmospheric perturbations indicates that, under certain conditions, a small

energy addition might lead to large changes in the further

course of a process. Emphasis should be placed on identifying

critical "instability points" in the natural development of

cyclones.

e. Theoretically, action on the field of the ageostrophic wind

and particularly on'the vertical component of the ageostropic

wind should produce the largest influence for the energy

expended.

f. In connection with the possibility of steering cyclones, Yudin

stresses that only slight deflections of the wind from the geostropic are associated with much faster movement of cyclone

centers.

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g. In connection with influencing the intensity of cyclones.

Yudin calculates that "by creating a descending movement with

a velocity of 3 cm/sec at the upper boundary --, we can essentially weaken the intensity of a cyclone in eight hours."

These brief criteria clearly identify one difficulty associated

with large scale weather modification, namely, that the theoretically

most effective approaches all involve actions that we do not know how

to produce efficiently. On the other hand, various ways of influencing

the thermal losses and inputs to the atmosphere, although theoretically

inefficient from the viewpoint of immediate dynamical consequences, are

much more achievable with present technology. For example, it has already been noted that the creation or dissipation of high cloudiness

has an enormous influence on the heat budget of the atmosphere and of

the surface. Moreover, under certain conditions, only one kg of reagent can seed several km . It is estimated that sixty C-5 aircraft,

2

operating from Eielson AFB and Thule AFB could deliver 1 kg per km

per day over the entire Arctic basin (10 km ).

Thus, it is a large but not impossible task to consider seeding

such enormous areas. Assuming that such seeding were effective in

creating or dissipating clouds, it is of interest to estimate the effeet of such cloudiness on the heat budget of the surface/atmosphere

system. According to Vowinkel and Orvig (1964), the presence of average cloudiness over the Arctic in July decreases the radiative loss to

space by about 350 billion cal/km2/day from what it would be without

clouds. For comparison, 100% cloud tops at 500 m would decrease radiative loss by only 50 billion cal/km /day while 100% cloud tops at

5,000 m would decrease radiative loss by about 1,000 billion cal/km2

e

day. These numbers demonstrate not only the enormous thermal leverage

that might be exercised by influencing mean cloudiness, but also the

enormous range of influence that might be possible, depending on cloud

type, height, and its influence on the regional heat budget. This conclusion is further underscored by noting that mean monthly values of

radiative loss at the surface have been observed to vary by more than

100% in different years at some Arctic stations.

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Similarily, it may be noted that, under certain conditions, influencing the surface albedo of Arctic pack ice is not beyond the

capability of present technology. Since the presence of sea ice effectively severs the intense heat flux from ocean water to cold atmosphere, regulating the extent of sea ice is still another possible way

of exercising enormous thermal leverage on patterns of thermal forcing

of atmospheric motion (Budyko, 1962) (Fletcher, 1965, 1968).

Influencing the temperature of the ocean surface over extended

areas by changing the courses of certain ocean currents in various

ways has also been proposed. (Wexler, 1958) (Rusin and Flit, 1962)

(Borisov, 1959, 1967). These schemes involve large but not impossible a

engineering efforts. The principle difficulty, however, is that

present understanding of ocean dynamics is too rudimentary to reliably

predict the effects of such projects and, even if this were possible,

the dynamical response of the atmosphere to the new pattern of heating

could not be predicted.

These various examples are enough to demonstrate the following

essential conclusions: (1) It does appear to be within man's engineering capacity to influence the heat loss and gain of the atmosphere

on a scale that can influence patterns of thermal forcing of atmospheric circulation. (2) Purposeful use of this capability is not

feasible because present understanding of atmospheric and oceanic dynamics and heat exchange is far too imperfect to predict the outcome

of such efforts. (3) Although it would be theoretically more efficient to act directly on the moving atmosphere, engineering techniques

for doing so are not presently available. (4) The inadvertant influences of man's activity will lead eventually to catastrophic influences

on global climate unless ways can be develoPed to compensate for these

undesired effects. Whether the time remaining for bringing this problem

under control is a few decades or a century is still an open question.

(5) The diversity of thermal processes that can be influenced in the

atmosphere, and between the atmosphere and ocean, offers promise that,

if global climate is adequately understood, it can be influenced for

the purpose of either maximizing climatic resources or avoiding unted changes. For example, to avoid undesired planetary warming,

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ways must. he tound to drain additional inat to spme RMulating

cloud covtr, .ts Huggested in an example above

01 approaching t.his problem.

VI. WHAI IN1iKF'I AND t u:U LTFNu ;N LIUBAI ( I IMAIE LUNTRU_L

iiAVF Hi FN 5HuWN HY NA1[UN Ul IHi WORIU

Only the U.s. and the U49R have expre.,sed nerlous interest la the

problem of influenciny global ellmate.

In the U.S., this expression has taken the lurm of statements by

the U 5. National Academy at Sciences (1966) and the National Science

Foundation (1965), pointing out the possible necessity for influencing

global climate and commenting on the scientific feasibility of doing

so. 'ihe only formal research program to date has been the NSF funding

program for "Weather Modification" which has for several years included some basic work on climatic change and possible climate control.

In the U SR, both governmental and scientì11c interest has been

more evident. A conference on climate modification was held in Leningrad on 25-28 April 1961 under the sponsorshi.p of the three institutions most closely concerned with the problem -- The Main Leophysical

Observatory, Leningrad, 'Ibe Institute of Applied Geophysics, Moscow,

and the Institute of Geography, Moscow (JPRS 24512). At this conference, the Chief of the Hydrometeorological Service, Ye K. Fedorov,

estimated that some 5 to 10 years would be required to adequately define the problem. (It is now seven years later and as yet the problem

has not been adequately defined). Fedorov also stressed investigation

of ways to influence heat exchange between the atmosphere and the surface as the most promising approach for influencing large scale processes.

Scientists of the various Institutes also reported on various aspects of climate control investigation. At the Institute of Applied

Geophysics, Moscow, this work is led by A.N. Gusev, Director of the

Climate Laboratory, and has emphasized the development of a more adequate theory of global climate, including attempts to develop models

of global circulation. At that time, emphasis was on mechanical and

electrical analogue modela. In recent years, emphasia la shifting to

mathematical models as COmput8r facilities groW in power

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At the institute of Geography, Moscow, emphasis has been on

e

analysis of observed changes of climate and their possible causes.

The Director, I P. Gerasimov, has stressed that future modification

of climate should not be undertaken without an understanding of such

events in the past, including the causes of such large variations as

the Quaternary ice ages. B.L Dzerdzeevskii at the Institute of Geography has led work on the analysis of atmospheric circulation types

and their relation to observed solar changes

At the main Geophysical Observatory, Leningrad, emphasis on possible climate modification has the longest history and represents the

greatest level of effort. Since coming to office in 1954, Director

M.I. Budyko has stressed study of the heat balance of the surface/

atmosphere system over the earth. A special series of studies have

been directed toward the possible removal of the ice cover from the

Arctic Ocean. It was concluded that the Arctic sea ice, once removed,

would not recur. Instead, a new climatic balance would be established

in which sufficient heat would be furnished to the Arctic Ocean to

compensate its winter losses. Computations have been made to determine

the climatic characteristics of Eurasia and North America under these

conditions. However, such computations have been greatly handicapped

by the unavailability of an adequate mathematical model or the computer

power to simulate global climatic behavior under specified boundary

conditions. Summaries of this work were presented at a U.S. symposium

in 1966 (Fletcher, 1966).

In recent years, the main computing center of the new 'Science

City" at Novosibirsk has been assuming a growing leadership in the de

velopment of mathematical models of global climate. The Director,

G.I. Marchuk, has maintained close contact with U.S. work by extended

visits. (1965, 1967, 1969).

Also, the Institute of Oceanography, Moscow, is sponsoring a

growing capability emphasizing mathematical models of oceanic and atmospheric circulation. The Director, A.S. Monin, is a dynamic meteorologist and has stressed the influence of ocean/atmosphere interaction

on global climate. The extended U.S. visit of his colleague, B. L.

Gavrilin, during 1968 is a part of this long range program.

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An organizational framework for governmental supervision of these

programs was established in 1962 when a Special Council on Modification

of Meteorolop;ical Processes was established under the State Committee

on the Coordination of Scientific Research Work of the Soviet Council

of Ministers. The first meeting of this group was held in Leningrad

11-13 June 1962, where sixteen reports were presented (JPRS:24512).

We have no recent information on the activities of this group.

Budyko (1962) reports that "the new program of the Soviet Communist Party, adopted at the 22nd Party Congress, lists the develoPment of climate-control methods among the most urgent problems of

Soviet science." (See also, Materials of the 22nd Congress of the

Communist Party of the Soviet Union, Moscow 1961, p. 415) (Zikeev

and Doumani, 1967).

In general, Soviet work has been most severely handicapped by

the lack of computer power comparable to that available in the U.S.

However, all of the interested Soviet institutes have demonstrated

great emphasis on theoretical work which will contribute to rapid

progress as more powerful computers become available. They have also

maintained close contact with U.S. groups developing models of atmospheric circulation, maintaining visiting scientists with them much of

the time.

In addition, Soviet agencies have been investing great efforts

in field observat'ions, especially in high latitude oceanic regions.

The following announement by the Novosti Press Agency is indicative

of these efforts. (Arctic, Vol. 21, No. 2, 1968)

"A program of investigations into the mutual influence

of the oceans of the world and the atmosphere has been mappad out in the Soviet Union. These studies are aimed at

long-term weather forecasts, the elucidation of the reasons

for climatic fluctuations, forecasts of the ice regime in

the Arctic seas, and a better organization of fishing, and

hunting sea-animals.

Concerning the natural experiments suggested by the

Arctic and Antarctic Scientific Research Institute (whose

program has been discussed in the U.S.S.R. Geographical

Society), the head of the Hydrological Regime Sector,

Yevgeny Nikiforov, M.Sc. (Geography) said that a vast terÈ ..ritory will be subjected to observations conducted according

.. . . to special techniques. The natural experiment zone will

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embrate the northern parts of the Atlantic and the Pacific,

the Arctic Ocean, and the Norwegian, Greenland, and Burents

seas.

The investigations will be conducted from research vessels and planes equipped with special scientific instrutoentation and automatic meteorological stations At the

same time, the natural experiment will extend over territories of the continents adjacent to the oceans and seas.

During these observations it is planned to use the entire

network of meteorological stations, and the North Pole

drifting stations, special high-latitude expeditions will

be launched. *

The decade of the 1970's promises to be a period of rapidly

growing international cooperation and activity directed toward study

of global atmospheric circulation. The planned Global Atmospheric

Research Program (GARP) grew out of a proposal of President John F.

Kennedy to the U.N. General Assembly in 1961 General Assembly

Resolution 1721 (XVI) recommended joint action to study basic physical processes that affect climate and that would be involved in large

scale weather modification.

U.N. Resolution 1802 (XVll) 1962 initiated a lohg series of

planning conferences under the auspices of the World Fieteorological

Organization (WMO), the International Council of scientific Unions

(ICSU), and the International Union of Geophysics and Geodesy (IUGG)

The most recent study conference met at Stockholm in June 1967 to

formulate detailed scientific requirements. The first large scale

observation program will probably be in 1973. Thus far, American

scientists have played the leading roles in these activities.

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VII. W11AT CAN BE DONE TO SPEED PROGRESS

With environmental problems, it is conveulent to think of progress

in four stages -- observation, understanding, prediction, and control.

We must observe how nature behaves before we can understand w_hy, we

must understand before we can predict and we must be able to predict

the outcome before we undertake measures for control. Much progrees

is needed in all four areas in order to achieve the degree of control

over clímatic processes that is becoming necessary.

In the past, progress has been severely limited by several

factors that are now changing rapidly.

One factor was limited observations. No more than about 20?. of

the global atmosphere was observed at one time, and that very incompletely. With the advent of satellite observing systems some quantities can be observed over the entire planet every day. This observational breakthrough makes possible the synoptic surveillance of the

entire global system and the sophistication of the observations that

can be made by satellite is rapidly increasing. The processing and

dissemination of this vast new pool of data presents many problems,

which are gradually being resolved by the National Environmental Satellite Center. (Brister, 1967, 1968).

Synoptic observations of the global system have further emphasized

the necessity of observing certin typical regions in great detail for

a limited period in order to understand the heat exchange processes

taking place and their influence on the atmosphere and the ocean.

This is especially important in regions which play an important role

in the thermal forcing of atmospheric and oceanic circulation, and

where large year to year variations can occur. In the equatorial heat

source region, variations in the intensity of the tropical convergence

zone seem to be associated with changing global climate. In the two

polar heat sink regions, variations in extent of ice cover on the

ocean also seem to be associated with changing global climate. In all

cases, both the causes and the effects of these variations are obscure

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lhe equatorial problems are receiving increased attention in recent years, and several field observational programs have been conducted there the Indian Ocean Experi.ment of 19b4, the Line island

experiment ' of 1956, the 'Barbados Experiment" of 1966, and the planned

sequels to these experi:nents, "TROMFX ' in 1969 and a later Marshall

Islands Experi.ment .

similar planning for regions or large heating anomalies at high

latitudes is needed but has not yet gotten under way. One region of

prime importance is the Weddell Sea sector of the Southern ocean, which

is thought to be the source of most of the bottom water of the world

ocean. A very limited two year field program began in 1968, aimed at

preliminary measurements of bottom water runoff. To learn how this

important region influences the global atmosphere and the world ocean,

the program should be expanded to include year-round quantitative observations of the patterns of ocean/atmosphere heat exchange and should

be extended to be concurrent with large scale 1.nternational efforts to

observe the behavior of the southern hemisphere atmospheric circulation.

(Such as the "Eole Experiment" in 1970 and the tentative "GARP" experiments in 1973 and 1976.) With regard to the northern heat sink region,

formulation of needed field measurements was a prime subject of a

"Symposium on the Arctic Heat Budget and Atmospheric Circulation'

sponsored by NSF in 1966. Detailed recommendations are included in

the proceedings (Fletcher, 1966).

A second factor limiting progress has been the nature of the

problem. An adequate theoretical basis has not as yet been developed

for explaining the interactions of the global heat engine and for accounting for observed changes in climate. Causal relationships have

been obscured by the multitude of factors operating and problems for

investigation have often been ill-defined. Research methods are often

painfully slow and frustrating and thus appear less attractive to

graduate students than the more direct methods of experimental sciences,

observation of physical behavior, formation of a hypothesis, deduction

of consequences from the hypothesis, and the testing of deductions by

physical experiment. These limitations are also changing rapidly, for

the rapid increase in computer power, coupled with the parallel development of mathematical models of atmospheric and oceanic circulation,

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promise powerful experimental tools for testing hypotheses and causal

relationships. An inevitable result will be the development at a

are sophisticated theory to explain climatiu change which, in turn

will trigger an avalanche of cli.matic experiments ' testing the predictions of the improved theory of climate.

Thus, not only is observation in the throes et a technologiod

breakthrough, but also "understanding" and 'prediction." For these

reasons, relatively rapid progress over the next decade is inevitable.

This process is already under way, but the rate and directi.on of

progress will obviously be influenced by the scale and organization

of the resources invested, both human and material. At present, there,

are three main groups developing atmospheric circulation models (ESSA,

NCAR, UCLA). There are at least two substantial groups 1.avestigati-ng

the causes of climatic change (MIT, University of Wisconsin), and

additional groups investigating global heat engine features that are

both influential and subject to large variations (Arctic heat exchanges -- McGill, University of Washington, Antarctic heat exchanges -- CSIRO, University of Wisconsin, Equatorial heat exchanges --

McGill, Florida State, University of Miami). It would be desirable to

bring the concerted capabilities of these and other groups to bear

within a systematic program of climate research utilizing numerical

experiments based on theoretical ana,ysis and field observation. Ways

of furthering this aim should be systematically explored.

It is clear that the means are presently at hand to support rapid

progress in observation, understanding, and prediction. But, what

about control?

It must be emphasized that purposeful control of climatic processes will not be possible until a much more adequate climatic

theory is develoPed. On the other hand, it is presently possible to

identify and investigate certain potential techniques for influencing

climatic processes.

The example of cloud seeding over the Arctic basin was cited

earlier and there are many more ways in which heat exchanges might be

influenced on a large scale, such as influencing the albedo of the

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surface or the radiative properties of the atmosphere (Rusin, 1962 -

Fletcher, 1965 - Budyko, 1962). Such techniques should be systematically evaluated, and new ones discovered. In general, such tests

must be conducted under natural conditions and be designed to trigger

cumulative effects og natural heat exchanges Nature sets a limit on

the rate of such experimentation, as the annual cycle occurs only once

a year. It can be anticipated that when rapid experi.mental progress

becomes urgent this limitation will be severely felt. Meanwhile, it

would be wise to inititate a small but systematic program of field

evaluation of such potential techniques for large scale weather modif ication.

Also, it may be noted that an understanding of contemporary and

future cliraatic changes can hardly be achieved without understanding

the large climatic changes of the past. Defining the patterns of these

changes is a way of observing nature's own climate control experiments.

Yet, the collection and systematization of paleoclimatic evidence has

been both meager and uncoordinated in the U.S. There is no U.S. institutional counterpart to, say, the Main Geophysical observatory in

Leningrad or the Institute for Geography in Moscow. There has been

no coordinated effort comparable to that led by Lamb at the British

Meteorological Office. It is not suggested that these institutional'

efforts be emulated in the U.S., but rather, that the pace of the

U.S. investigation could be increased by a recognition of the importance of such work by U.S. funding agencies and by a modest increase

in the level of support.

Finally it must be emphasized that management of climatic resources is a problem shared by all nations. The global ocean/atmosphere is a single interacting physical system, in which an action .

anywhere may influence behavior everywhere. We are rapidly approaching the time when progress toward learning how to manage global climate

will be proportional to the purposeful investment of scientific efforts. Coordination of these efforts is in everyone's interest.

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