1 

Draft: 1-10-2010 Table 3. Proposed Socioeconomic Plan for FY2011-2014, as recommended by the TWG Socioeconomic Ad Hoc Group. 

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Proposed 

Study/Activity 

AMP Info Needs TWG Questions to be addressed Proposed 

1 Socioeconomic 

research overall and its application to GCDAMP decisionmaking. Cost: TBD 

N/A Resolving questions of how market, nonmarket, use and non-use values should be 

integrated into Grand Canyon policy formulation would address questions J and F. 

How will the mnonuse values banalysis? Policy collaborative efand DOE/WAPmarket, non-maused in the diffesuch as NEPA aand in any bene

2 Staffing. 

Cost: TBD Time: FY 2012 and beyond 

N/A N/A As GCMRC shi

socioeconomic resource economto conceptualize RFPs and help sprovide study ostaff, or outside help interpret stimplications of Additional resoucontractors may effectively. Thisocioeconomic outside consultato be conducted additional staff 

FY 2011 
2 

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Study/Activity 

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3 Economics 101 

educational workshop. Cost: TBD Time: FY 2011 

IN 12.1 Develop information that can be used by the TWG, in collaboration with GCMRC, to establish current and target levels for all resources within the AMP as called for in the AMP strategic plan. IN 12.2 Determine what information is necessary and sufficient to make recommendations at an acceptable level of risk. RIN 12.1.1 What is the economic value of the recreational use of the Colorado River ecosystem downstream from Glen Canyon Dam? RIN 12.1.2 What are the use (e.g., hydropower, trout fishing, rafting) and non-use (e.g., option, vicarious, quasioption, bequest and existence) values of the Colorado River ecosystem 

C. Do we need to determine the value of "specialness" of resources, such as, hydroelectric power generation; visitor satisfaction; value of beaches to support rafting; values of high visibility wildlife e.g., peregrine falcon, big horn sheep; and value of a blue ribbon trout fishery? D. What are points of disagreement on methodologies and assumptions in regard to power analysis? E. What would a consensus interagency methodology for modeling hydropower and recreation (e.g., fishing & rafting) economic outcomes look like? J. What are the requirements for economic information in GCPA, ESA, NHPA, NEPA, CRSPA,? M. Can the values of dependable power and water supplies be reflected in future economic analysis? N. How much weight should non-use values be given compared to market and non-market use values? T. What are the non-use values for different resources (including the tribal perspective) so we can include these values in trade-off analysis? 

The panel recomNon Use ValueAMWG understthis type of studmaking. Howevgeneral workshoto provide AMP introduction to tunderlying sociclarify terminoloverview of how (market, non-mconducted and hto interpreted andecisions. This scheduled for Meducational wornon-use economcovered during scheduled for Fsupport for the Eto help GCRMC specifically to aeconomics. CREprofessional opipower system e
3 

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Proposed 

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4 Define GCD 

operational base case and change cases. Cost: TBD Time: FY 2011 Policy 

IN 10.1 Determine and track the impacts to power users from implementation of Record of Decision dam operations and segregate those effects from other causes such as changes in the power market. RIN 10.1.1. What would be the effects on the Colorado River ecosystem and marketable capacity and energy of increasing the daily fluctuation limit? RIN 10.1.2. What would be the effects on the Colorado River ecosystem and marketable capacity and energy of increasing the upramp and downramp limit? RIN 10.1.3 What would be the effects on the Colorado River ecosystem and marketable capacity and energy of raising the maximum power plant flow limit above 25,000 cfs? RIN 10.1.4 What would be the effects on the Colorado River ecosystem and marketable capacity and energy of lowering the minimum flow limit below 5,000 cfs? RIN 10.1.5 How do power-marketing contract provisions affect Glen Canyon Dam releases? 

I. What is the base case on optimal power generation? W. (partly) Determine impacts on marketed hydropower and recreation values of alternative flow scenarios in real time to support decision making. S. (partly) What is the total economic impact to upper basin water users from changes to power generation from base case? 

This task addresdefine a base cawhich proposed can be evaluated recommended thscenario that refoperations. The monthly volumehourly) outputs, power productiowhat the base caconditions or Mdeveloping a baMLFF operationthere would be vthe future to assoperation such toperations could moving from onresults in net bedefining the basbe analyzed in tanalyses. TWG – we neead hoc group dapproach. We base case, pre-both. 
4 

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Study/Activity 

AMP Info Needs TWG Questions to be addressed Proposed 

5 Peer review of the 

WAPA GTMax power model. Cost: $30,000 Time: FY 2011 

SSQ 3-4. What are the projected hydropower costs associated with the various alternative flow regimes being discussed for future experimental science (as defined in the next phase experimental design)? IN 10.1. Determine and track the impacts to power users from implementation of ROD dam operations and segregate those effects from other causes such as changes in the power market. CMIN 10.1.1 (as redefined by SPG). Determine and track the marketable capacity and energy produced through dam operations in relation to the various release scenarios (daily fluctuation limit, upramp and downramp limits, etc.).

Workplan: HYWAPA will prodescription of thequations. GCMworkshop involWAPA, a repreArgonne Laboraof independent During this worassumptions, anGTMax model abe described in through hands-oexperts. GCDAto observe the wworkshop will bfor independent familiar with anassess GTMax aterms of their poelectrical power tool and post ho
5 

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Proposed 

Study/Activity 

AMP Info Needs TWG Questions to be addressed Proposed 

6 Power modeling: 

conduct the base case analysis and initial power modeling using currently available models and test “spill over” effects with the WECC. Cost: TBD Time: FY 2011 WECC = Western Electrical Coordinating Council (i.e., western grid). 

IN 10.1 Determine and track the impacts to power users from implementation of Record of Decision dam operations and segregate those effects from other causes such as changes in the power market. RIN 10.1.1. What would be the effects on the Colorado River ecosystem and marketable capacity and energy of increasing the daily fluctuation limit? RIN 10.1.2. What would be the effects on the Colorado River ecosystem and marketable capacity and energy of increasing the upramp and downramp limit? RIN 10.1.3 What would be the effects on the Colorado River ecosystem and marketable capacity and energy of raising the maximum power plant flow limit above 25,000 cfs? RIN 10.1.4 What would be the effects on the Colorado River ecosystem and marketable capacity and energy of lowering the minimum flow limit below 5,000 cfs? RIN 10.1.5 How do power-marketing contract provisions affect Glen Canyon Dam releases? CMIN 10.1.1 (as redefined by SPG). Determine and track the marketable capacity and energy produced through dam operations in relation to the various release scenarios (daily fluctuation limit, upramp and downramp limits, etc.). 

I. What is the base case on optimal power generation? W. (partly) Determine impacts on marketed hydropower and recreation values of alternative flow scenarios in real time to support decision making. S. (partly) What is the total economic impact to upper basin water users from changes to power generation from base case? 

Workplan: HYImplement the rcomplete the baoperations in FY of the base case GCMRC, with iappropriate expthe Socioeconomfrom the GTMaadditional speciThis base case sanalysis of "spilbase case and spcompleted by Wno cost to the Asubmitted by Wreview. GCMRC process and use needed. WAPA the report based the peer review If WAPA’s powchanges in flowsystem, or at intsystems, then a may be requiredindicators throutransmission, reIf needed in a serecommended thconsultants to panalyses using mfor this purposeGCMRC enlist the RFQs for th

FY2012
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Study/Activity 

AMP Info Needs TWG Questions to be addressed Proposed 

7 Non-use values 

workshop to incorporate review of the 1994 Non Use Value Survey and update the questionnaire. Cost: $0 Time: FY 2012 

RIN 12.1.2 What are the use (e.g., hydropower, trout fishing, rafting) and non-use (e.g., option, vicarious, quasioption, bequest and existence) values of the Colorado River ecosystem

RIN 12.1.3 How does use (e.g., hydropower, trout fishing, rafting) and non-use (e.g., option, vicarious, quasioption, bequest and existence) values change in response to an experiment performed under the Record of Decision, unanticipated event, or other management action?

T, Q, G, C, N A new non-use 

properly assess Grand Canyon, values from dam be on values thabroader Americon human use oData on tribal vthis study depenpreliminary invstudy will take cpanel recommenstart planning eastudy, taking intoccurred in the since 1995. Initireview of old quno additional cois recommendinworkshop formareview of non-u

8 Scoping activity: 

identify tribes for specific surveys of preferences and attitudes and determine if separate tribal studies are needed. Cost: $5,000 Time: FY 2012 

RIN 11.2.1 What are traditionally important resources and locations for each tribe and other groups? RIN 11.2.2 What is the baseline measure for resource integrity? 

B. How do high flow and other experiments affect recreation (river rafting fishing guides and other associated businesses, including tribes)? O. What is the economic benefit of river recreation to tribes? L. What is the sociocultural impact of recreational use in the Colorado? R. What are the socioeconomic benefits and costs of hydropower generation from HFE to tribal communities? T. What are the non-use values for different resources (including the tribal perspective) so we can include these values in trade-off analysis? 

There is a need in AMP decisioas a scoping actvalues should binto AMP decisper the panel’s rbelow but they finds that a sepaspecifically addvalues. This scoinclude the tribethey may be invcurrently being part of their mo

9 Recreation Use 

Analysis: Part A (Market): 

CMIN 9.1.1 Determine and track the changes attributable to dam operations in recreational quality, opportunities and use, impacts, serious incidents, and 

A. What are the attributes of the river that are important to recreational users? B. How do high flow and other experiments affect recreation (river rafting fishing guides 

The panel proposocioeconomic values that incluuse values for sp
7 

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Proposed 

Study/Activity 

AMP Info Needs TWG Questions to be addressed Proposed 

initiate recreation expenditure analysis of Glen Canyon anglers, day-use rafters, and Grand Canyon and Marble Canyon white water users including Diamond Creek to Mead rafters. Part B (Non-Market): initiate development of survey instrument for recreation nonmarket use analysis and obtain OMB clearances. Cost: $150,000 - $200,000 Time: FY 2012-2013 

perceptions of users, including the level of satisfaction, in the Colorado River Ecosystem. CMIN 9.1.4 Determine and track the 

economic benefits of river related recreational opportunities. RIN 12.1.1 What is the economic value of the recreational use of the Colorado River ecosystem downstream from Glen Canyon Dam?

and other associated businesses, including tribes)? C. Do we need to determine the value of "specialness" of resources, such as, hydroelectric power generation; visitor satisfaction; value of beaches to support rafting; values of high visibility wildlife and value of a blue ribbon trout fishery? G. (partly) What are the use and nonuse costs and benefits of HFE including the marginal costs and benefits of changes in HFE duration and size? L. What is the sociocultural impact of recreational use in the Colorado River on Native American values associated with resources and places in the Grand Canyon? O. What is the economic benefit of river recreation to tribes? W. (partly) Determine impacts on marketed hydropower and recreation values of alternative flow scenarios in real time to support decision making. 

panel suggested be had by gathemarket and non time, this is realdata are easier teasily. Data on (preferences) wdesign and addigroups. The expanalyzed while instrument is beThe regional ecexperiments and analyzed. This aimpact on the rechanges in expeactions. The groups of inGlen Canyon daGrand Canyon Wcommercial and Ferry to DiamonHualapai white that services DiThis expenditurIMPLAN regionestimate the possurrounding couin terms of direcand employmenwould capture tsubsequent rounsurrounding regthe guides and tobtain their expguiding, access recommend that use two impact research, it woucounties surrounHowever, since 
8 

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# 

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Study/Activity 

AMP Info Needs TWG Questions to be addressed Proposed 

of operation in Nwould be approbroader multi-st(Report page 16

10 Power modeling: 

conduct change case analyses, and power flow studies that show the financial and economic consequences of GCD management alternatives on WAPA and WAPA customers. Cost: TBD Time: FY 2012 

RINS 10.1.1-10.1.5 I. What is the base case on optimal power 

generation? W. (partly) Determine impacts on marketed hydropower and recreation values of alternative flow scenarios in real time to support decision making. S. (partly) What is the total economic impact to upper basin water users from changes to power generation from base case? 

This task would from alternative the base case. Tto define what “analyze before tabove). 
9 

ROW 

# 

Proposed 

Study/Activity 

AMP Info Needs TWG Questions to be addressed Proposed 

11 [Contingent upon 

power modeling in FY 2011] WECC power analysis: GCMRC to solicit firms for future WECC analysis and work with WAPA to establish framework for future economic and financial analyses if deemed necessary by power modeling completed in FY 2011. Cost: TBD WECC = Western Electrical Coordinating Council (i.e., western grid). 

IN 10.1 Determine and track the impacts to power users from implementation of Record of Decision dam operations and segregate those effects from other causes such as changes in the power market. RIN 10.1.1. What would be the effects on the Colorado River ecosystem and marketable capacity and energy of increasing the daily fluctuation limit? RIN 10.1.2. What would be the effects on the Colorado River ecosystem and marketable capacity and energy of increasing the upramp and downramp limit? RIN 10.1.3 What would be the effects on the Colorado River ecosystem and marketable capacity and energy of raising the maximum power plant flow limit above 25,000 cfs? RIN 10.1.4 What would be the effects on the Colorado River ecosystem and marketable capacity and energy of lowering the minimum flow limit below 5,000 cfs? RIN 10.1.5 How do power-marketing contract provisions affect Glen Canyon Dam releases?

I. What is the base case on optimal power generation? W. (partly) Determine impacts on marketed hydropower and recreation values of alternative flow scenarios in real time to support decision making. S. (partly) What is the total economic impact to upper basin water users from changes to power generation from base case? 

This project is cmodeling done determine “spill The panel believfully analyze hooperations may electrical grid, tvalues. The neeWECC would bpower modeling FY2011, informmodeling effort budgets for FY2determination is geographical scwhether the expdeemed necessadecision-makingIf determined thsufficient to capGCMRC should perform the WEare appropriate are needed, GCMexpertise to devmodeling work 

FY2013
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Study/Activity 

AMP Info Needs TWG Questions to be addressed Proposed 

12 Recreation Use 

Analysis Continues: Part B (Non-Market): initiate recreation surveys of Glen Canyon anglers, dayuse rafters, and Grand Canyon and Marble Canyon white water users including Diamond Creek to Mead rafters. Cost: =$150,000 - $200,000 Time: FY 2013-2014 

CMIN 9.1.1 Determine and track the changes attributable to dam operations in recreational quality, opportunities and use, impacts, serious incidents, and perceptions of users, including the level of satisfaction, in the Colorado River Ecosystem. CMIN 9.1.4 Determine and track the 

economic benefits of river related recreational opportunities. RIN 12.1.1 What is the economic value of the recreational use of the Colorado River ecosystem downstream from Glen Canyon Dam? 

A. What are the attributes of the river that are important to recreational users? B. How do high flow and other experiments affect recreation (river rafting fishing guides and other associated businesses, including tribes)? C. Do we need to determine the value of "specialness" of resources, such as, hydroelectric power generation; visitor satisfaction; value of beaches to support rafting; values of high visibility wildlife and value of a blue ribbon trout fishery? G. (partly) What are the use and nonuse costs and benefits of HFE including the marginal costs and benefits of changes in HFE duration and size? L. What is the sociocultural impact of recreational use in the Colorado River on Native American values associated with resources and places in the Grand Canyon? O. What is the economic benefit of river recreation to tribes? W. (partly) Determine impacts on marketed hydropower and recreation values of alternative flow scenarios in real time to support decision making. 

GCMRC should studies focused 

include both ma

for specific rivewould focus on implementing thsurveys. This refrom Glen Canymaximize efficiThe intent of thdetermine the brecreation users analysis under tThis broader anfor changes in rthe AMP in deteconsequences ochanges in beneoperations mighbut might have overall benefits user groups. Thamounts on thoan economic anGCDAMP deci
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Study/Activity 

AMP Info Needs TWG Questions to be addressed Proposed 

13 [Contingent on 

scoping results FY 2012] Prepare surveys of tribal preferences and social values. The analysis could include consideration of both use and non-use values and include sociology and socioeconomics. Cost: $40,000 Time: FY 2013 

RIN 11.2.1 What are traditionally important resources and locations for each tribe and other groups? RIN 11.2.2 What is the baseline measure for resource integrity? 

B. How do high flow and other experiments affect recreation (river rafting fishing guides and other associated businesses, including tribes)? O. What is the economic benefit of river recreation to tribes? L. What is the sociocultural impact of recreational use in the Colorado? R. What are the socioeconomic benefits and costs of hydropower generation from HFE to tribal communities? T. What are the non-use values for different resources (including the tribal perspective) so we can include these values in trade-off analysis? 

This activity is the scoping exeimportant to condecision making values require sthese values couduring the use aelsewhere in thiresearch prograthat decisions cameaningful wayprogram needs teconomic impacon the tribes thaoperations. Socimay suggest bothat should be coperations are ccovered in this squestions about flow regimes. Tinvited to partictesting of the su

14 Initiate OMB 

clearance to conduct surveys with focus groups in FY 2014 in order to develop a non-use values survey in FY 2015. Cost: $20,000 

FY2014
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Study/Activity 

AMP Info Needs TWG Questions to be addressed Proposed 

15 [Contingent on 

scoping results FY 2012] Conduct tribal surveys for preferences and social values potentially affected by GCD operations. Cost: $100,000 Time: FY 2014-2015 

O, L, R, B, T A socioeconom

GCMRC needs socioeconomic impacts on the Tin dam operatio

16 Conduct focus groups 

and piloting of NonUse Value survey, and initiate OMB clearance for full survey implementation. Cost: $200,000 

T, Q, G, C, N The panel recom

plan for a future ready for actual FY2014 tasks apreceding imple

17 Develop "real-time 

decision-making spreadsheet" for power impacts and benefits. Cost: $50,000 - $100,000 

To the extent thmarket impacts future decision-to ease the calcusimplified respoin a spreadsheetCRSP service acapacity requireGTMax Lite modevelop this, budone in tasks ab

FY2015
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18 Conduct full non-use 

value survey. Cost: $500,000 Time: FY 2015-2016 

T, Q, G, C, N By 2015, it will 

Welsh et al. (19has changed incscenarios in the demographics oespecially in the recommended bCouncil in its renonuse values aunderstanding thmanagement strBy tying flow-renvironment to incremental or mestimated that apotential managCanyon. 

19 Implement Core 

Monitoring Plan for Socioeconomics. Cost: TBD 

B, W, A, O, L, G, C, R The panel recom

surveys be repemonitoring tool operations affecshould be integrPlan. A placeho

be kept in the inPlan.