Update on Draft Performance Metrics for the 

Long-Term Experimental & Management Plan 

Adaptive Management Work Group Meeting 

Phoenix, Arizona 

February 28, 2024 

Helen C. Fairley 

U.S. Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center 

Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center 

U.S. Department of the Interior 

U.S. Geological Survey 
Acronyms Used in This Presentation 

 AMWG: Adaptive Management Work Group 

 BO: Biological Opinion 

 CRE: Colorado River Ecosystem 

 DOI: Department of Interior 

 GCD: Glen Canyon Dam 

 GCE: Grand Canyon Ecosystem 

 GCMRC: Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center 

 GCNRA: Glen Canyon National Recreation Area 

 HBC: Humpback Chub 

 LCR: Little Colorado River 

 LTEMP: Long Term Experimental and Management Plan 

 ROD : Record of Decision 

 SRP: Soluble Reactive Phosphorous 

 TWG: Technical Work Group 
Why is this project important? 

(Purpose and Need for Metrics) 

 LTEMP defines 11 Goals for 20-year plan

 How do we know if the goals are being achieved?

 Need to define performance metrics

 Section 6.1(c) of the LTEMP ROD*

“The DOI, in consultation with the AMWG, will develop 

monitoring metrics for the goals and objectives using those in 

Appendix C as a starting point.” 

(Note: Appendix C = performance metrics developed by Runge 

et al. (2016) to help select the preferred LTEMP alternative.) 

 FY 21-23 TWP, Reclamation Project C.12

* Department of Interior, 2016, Record of Decision for the Glen Canyon Dam Long Term Experimental and

Management Plan Final Environmental Impact Statement, December 2016. Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado

River Region, Salt Lake City, Utah and National Park Service, Intermountain Region, Lakewood, Colorado.
LTEMP Goals 

 LTEMP Goals (from 2016 LTEMP FEIS and ROD)  1. Archaeological and Cultural Resources. Maintain the integrity of potentially affected NRHP-eligible or listed 

historic properties in place, where possible, with preservation methods employed on a site-specific basis. 

 2. Natural Processes. Restore, to the extent practicable, ecological patterns and processes within their range of 

natural variability, including the natural abundance, diversity, and genetic and ecological integrity of the plant 

and animal species native to those ecosystems. 

 3. Humpback Chub. Meet humpback chub recovery goals, including maintaining a self-sustaining population, 

spawning habitat, and aggregations in the Colorado River and its tributaries below the Glen Canyon Dam. 

 4. Hydropower and Energy. Maintain or increase Glen Canyon Dam electric energy generation, load following 

capability, and ramp rate capability, and minimize emissions and costs to the greatest extent practicable, 

consistent with improvement and long-term sustainability of downstream resources. 

 5. Other Native Fish. Maintain self-sustaining native fish species populations and their habitats in their natural 

ranges on the Colorado River and its tributaries. 

 6. Recreational Experience. Maintain and improve the quality of recreational experiences for the users of the 

Colorado River Ecosystem. Recreation includes, but is not limited to, flatwater and whitewater boating, river 

corridor camping, and angling in Glen Canyon. 

 7. Sediment. Increase and retain fine sediment volume, area, and distribution in the Glen, Marble, and Grand 

Canyon reaches above the elevation of the average base flow for ecological, cultural, and recreational purposes. 

 8. Tribal Resources. Maintain the diverse values and resources of traditionally associated Tribes along the 

Colorado River corridor through Glen, Marble, and Grand Canyons. 

 9. Rainbow Trout Fishery. Achieve a healthy high-quality recreational rainbow trout fishery in GCNRA and 

reduce or eliminate downstream trout migration consistent with NPS fish management and ESA compliance. 

 10. Nonnative Invasive Species. Minimize or reduce the presence and expansion of aquatic nonnative invasives. 

 11. Riparian Vegetation. Maintain native vegetation and wildlife habitat, in various stages of 

 maturity, such that they are diverse, healthy, productive, self-sustaining, and ecologically 

appropriate. 
Metrics, like monitoring, can serve 

diverse needs and purposes 

 Effectiveness (or Performance) Monitoring 

1. Assess effectiveness of policy, plan, or legislation 

2. Evaluate progress towards achieving management 

objectives or regulatory standards 

 Surveillance Monitoring/Ecosystem Monitoring 

3. Detect incipient trends (“early warnings”) 

4. Determine resource status in order to plan appropriate 

management actions 

 Validation Monitoring 

5. Validate understanding of resource dynamics 

6. Develop and refine models or predictions 
This Project 

 Focus on defining metrics to monitor effectiveness 

of LTEMP (i.e., Are we achieving LTEMP Goals?) 

 “To assess effectiveness of policy . . .” and 

 “ track progress towards achieving management 

objectives . . .” 

 Specific focus is on defining metrics for assessing 

and tracking achievement of LTEMP Goal outcomes 

 These metrics are not tracking means to achieving goals 

 There are many other metrics that can and should be 

monitored for other important reasons & purposes 

 Performance metrics tell us “achieving/achieved” or 

“not achieved” -- but not necessarily why 

 This will not be a comprehensive Monitoring Plan 
LTEMP Performance Metrics 

Selection Criteria 

 Measures the expected performance outcome of 

each LTEMP goal, not underlying “means objectives” 

 Quantifiable (metric = measurable) 

 Technically & financially feasible to measure (e.g., 

sustainable to monitor over a long period of time) 
Some basic tenets of metrics design 

and selection include: 

 Prioritize quality of metrics over quantity 

 Design metrics that are easy to understand 

 Design metrics that are easy to compare 

 Avoid redundant metrics 
Example: Humpback Chub (Gila cypha) 

 Goal Statement: Meet humpback chub recovery goals, including 

maintaining a self-sustaining population, spawning habitat, and 

aggregations in the Colorado River and its tributaries below the GCD 

 Performance Metrics 

 3.1 Current BO tier of HBC in LCR aggregation 

 3.2 Grand Canyon-wide HBC abundance 

 3.3 Proportion of Grand Canyon ecosystem with 

evidence of all 3 life stages 

 Surveillance metrics (“drivers” of outcome): 

 Water qualities (temperature, oxygen, turbidity, etc.) 

 Nutrients (e.g., SRP) and food base quality 

 Predator loads 

 LCR flood magnitude & frequency 
Conceptual diagrams capture 

underlying “drivers” of goal outcome 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Examples of Surveillance Metrics 

“Drivers” of goal outcomes are not performance metrics 

but they are important to monitor for other reasons 

Metric Name Measurement Location(s) Frequency Method 

Relevant 

Goals 

Daily/monthly/annual releases m3/sec (cfs) GCD, LF, Phantom, DC 15 min increments auto sample All 

Daily range (magnitude of fluctuations) m3/sec (cfs) GCD, LF, Phantom, DC 15 min increments auto sample All 

Water Temperature Degrees C (F) GCD, -8 mi, LF, 5 sed gages 15 min increments auto sample 2,3,5,6,9,10 

Turbidity fnu 6 mainstem sed gages 15 min increments auto sample 2,3,5,6,7,9,10 

Dissolved Oxygen mg/L GCD, -8 mile, LF 15 min increments auto sample 2,3,5,9,10 

Ph unitless GCD, LF monthly grab sample 2,3,5,9,10,11 

Phosphorus (SRP, TDP, TP) mg/L GCD, LF, Paria monthly grab sample 2,3,5,9,10,11 

Nitrogen (TN, NO23, NH4, TDN) mg/L GCD, LF monthly grab sample 2,3,5,9,10,11 

Available Sunlight (Canyon shading) 

PPFD μmol m-2 

s-1 

Entire Cre- Yard et al. 

2005 instantaneous modeled 

2,3,5,9,10,11 

Sediment mass balance (inputs/export) metric tons 6 mainstem gages 15 min increments auto sample/modeled 1,2,6,7,11 

Weather/climate parameter: Air 

Temperature Degrees C (F) 

LF, 11mi, 24.5, 70, 125, 

223mi 4 min increments auto sample 

2,6,11 

Weather/climate parameter: Wind 

intensity 

1,6,7,11 

km/hr 6 weather stations 4 min increments auto sample 

Weather/ climate parameter: Wind 

direction degrees 6 weather stations 4 min increments auto sample 

1,6,7,11 

Weather/climate parameter: 

precip.intensity 

1,6,7,11 

mm/hr 6 weather stations 4 min increments auto sample 

Weather/climate parameter: 

precip.amount mm/hr 6 weather stations 4 min increments auto sample 

1,6,7,11 

weather/climate parameter: humidity 6 weather stations 4 min increments auto sample 6,11 
 

Surveillance metrics inform on 

multiple goals, not just one goal 

Goal 1 

Goal 2 Goal 3 

Goal 4 

Goal 5 

Goal 6 Goal 7 

Goal 9 Goal 10 

Goal 11 

Water Temperature 

Air Temperature 

Turbidity 

Sand supply 

Dissolved Oxygen 

Nutrients 

Aquatic Food Base 

Flow volumes & release patterns 
 

Brief History of Draft Metrics Report 

 FY 2021: DOI settles on project scope; GCMRC initiates 

internal discussions, drafts metrics for initial review 

 February ‘22: Multiple meetings with DOI agency partners 

and other cooperators to review draft metrics & revise 

 June 9, ‘22: Draft report sent to TWG; discussed at June 

TWG meeting. Revised based on initial TWG comments 

 Oct. ‘22: TWG Presentation; more comments received 

 November ‘22-Feb ‘23: Additional revisions made 

 March ’23: Revised draft shared with DOI agencies 

 May ‘23: Meeting with DOI agencies to discuss draft 

 June-December ‘23: GCMRC made requested revisions to 

Goals 1 and 2; continued discussion re: sediment metrics 
 

 

 

Draft metrics, Goal 1 

 Goal 1 – Archaeological Resources 

Maintain the integrity of potentially affected NRHP-eligible or listed 

historic properties in place, where possible, with preservation 

methods employed on a site-specific basis. 

 1.1 Integrity 

 1.2 Topographic Change at a Sample of Sites 

 1.3 Change in Vulnerability to Loss of Integrity 
 

 

 

 

 

Draft Metrics, Goal 2 

 Goal 2 – Natural Processes 

Restore, to the extent practicable, ecological patterns and 

processes within their range of natural variability, including the 

natural abundance, diversity, and genetic and ecological integrity 

of the plant and animal species native to those ecosystems 

 2.1 Deviation from Natural Flow Metric 

(We also discuss “sub-metrics”: spring-early summer, late 

summer-fall, and winter deviation from natural flows) 

 2.2 Sub-daily Flow Fluctuation Metric 

 2.3 Springtime Gross Primary Productivity 

 2.4 Percent EPT Metric 
 

 

 

 

 

Draft Metrics, Goal 3 

 Goal 3- Humpback Chub (Gila cypha) 

Meet humpback chub recovery goals, including maintaining a selfsustaining population, spawning habitat, and aggregations in the 

Colorado River and its tributaries below the Glen Canyon Dam 

 3.1 Current B.O. Tier of HBC in LCR Aggregation 

 3.2 Grand Canyon-wide Abundance of Adult HBC 

 3.3 Proportion of Grand Canyon Ecosystem with 

Evidence of All 3 Life Stages of HBC 
Draft Metrics, continued 

 Goal 5 – Other Native Fishes 

Maintain self-sustaining native fish species populations and their 

habitats in their natural ranges on the Co. River and its tributaries 

 5.1 - 5.3: Proportion of Grand Canyon Ecosystem (GCE) with 

evidence of all 3 life stages of bluehead sucker (Catostomus 

discobolus) (5.1), flannelmouth sucker (Catostomus latipinnis) 

(5.2), razorback sucker (Xyrauchen texanus) (5.3) 

 5.4 Proportion of GCE with speckled dace (Rhinichthys osculus) 

(any life stage) 

 5.5 Proportion of GCE with extirpated species (any life stage) 

 Goal 9 – Rainbow Trout Fishery 

Achieve a healthy high-quality recreational rainbow trout fishery in 

GCNRA and reduce or eliminate downstream trout migration 

consistent with NPS fish management and ESA compliance 

 9.1 Trout Angler Catch Rate 

 9.2 Rainbow Trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) Abundance 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Draft Metrics, continued 

 Goal 4 – Hydropower 

Maintain or increase Glen Canyon Dam electric energy generation, 

load following capability, and ramp rate capability, and minimize 

emissions and costs to the greatest extent practicable, consistent 

with improvement and long-term sustainability of downstream 

resources 

4.1 – Economic Value of Hydropower 

 Goal 6 – Recreation 

Maintain and improve the quality of recreational experiences for 

the users of the Colorado River Ecosystem. Recreation includes, 

but is not limited to, flatwater and whitewater boating, river 

corridor camping, and angling in Glen Canyon 

6.1 – Economic Value of Recreation Experience 
 

 

Draft Metrics, continued 

 Goal 10 – Non-native aquatic species 

Minimize or reduce the presence and expansion of aquatic 

nonnative invasives. 

 10.1 - 10.4: Average number of “risky species” per 

Habitat Segment in Grand Canyon Ecosystem 

 10.5 - 10.8: Average number of “risky species” 

with evidence of recent recruitment per Habitat 

Segment in Grand Canyon Ecosystem 

 10.1, 10.5 = Low risk species 

 10.2, 10.6 = Medium risk species 

 10.3, 10.7 = High risk species 

 10.4, 10.8 = Very high risk species 
 

 

 

Draft Metrics, continued 

 Goal 11 – Riparian vegetation 

Maintain native vegetation and wildlife habitat, in various stages of 

maturity, such that they are diverse, healthy, productive, selfsustaining, and ecologically appropriate 

 11.1 Total Plant Cover 

 11.2 Native Plant Richness 

 11.3 Native to Non-native Plant Species Cover Ratio 
Goal 8: Tribal Values & Resources 

 Goal 8 Statement: Maintain the diverse values and 

resources of traditionally associated Tribes along the 

Colorado River corridor through Glen, Marble, and 

Grand Canyons. 

 Can metrics be defined around shared Tribal values? 

 Respect for Life 

 Responsibility (Stewardship) 

 Reciprocity 

 Relationship to the Grand Canyon 

 Other shared values? 
Next Steps 

 February 2024 (today): Use goals and metrics to 

frame discussion of Annual Reporting results and 

Triennial Workplan content. 

 March-April: Finalize existing draft metrics. 

 Summer 2024: Pilot display of metrics via 

Reclamation’s “Metrics Dashboard.” 
Questions? 

Questions? 

Confluence of the Colorado and Little Colorado Rivers 

Top: E. C. La Rue. August 13, 1923; Bottom: A.H. Fairley, May 8, 2019