Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group 

Informational Item 

March 15-16, 2010

Agenda Item 

Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC) Updates 

Action Requested

√ These items are for information and discussion. Opportunity for questions will be provided at the 

meeting on March 15-16, 2009. 

Preparers

John Beeman, Acting Biology Program Manager, GCMRC 

Ted Melis, Deputy Chief, Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC) 

Helen Fairley, Socio-Economic Program Manager, GCMRC 

Previous Action Taken 

N/A 

Relevant Science

N/A 

Background Information

I. 2009 PROTOCOL EVALUATION PANEL FOR FISH MONITORING PROGRAMS 

The following is an update on activities since the fish program Protocol Evaluation Panel 

(PEP) in 2009: 

Data compilation and analyses are underway following PEP recommendations. Some 

changes are being implemented in FY10, other recommendations require further analysis 

before making changes in longstanding (5+ yr) sampling programs. Those analyses are 

underway, and where possible will be scheduled for implementation in FY11 after analysis, 

review and approval. Thrust of most recommendations was to shift some resources from the 

most robust monitoring programs to the least robust ones, as the level of precision from 

some existing programs may not be necessary. Summaries of programs, PEP 

recommendations, and current status are below. 

a. Little Colorado River 

i. PEP recommendation: Shift resources to mainstem sampling 

1. No firm conclusions yet, analyses ongoing 

2. Any recommended changes in sampling program will be subject to external 

peer review, SA and TWG review 

b. Lees Ferry 

i. PEP recommendation: Reduce number of trips and eliminate fixed sample sites 

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GCMRC Updates, continued 

1. Implement in FY10 and redirect resources to non-native surveillance efforts. 

Non-native study plan being developed 

ii. Early life history (recruitment) monitoring to continue through 2010. (EcoMetric to 

AGFD transition); to be considered for inclusion in FY11-12 

1. Recommend inclusion depending on experimental actions 

2. Ongoing modeling (Walters and others) offers promise of tracking early 

recruitment signals based on length-frequency analysis. 

c. Mainstem Colorado river 

i. PEP recommendation: Reduce electrofishing trips from two to one. 

1. Rejected for FY10, to be considered in FY11 and FY12. 

2. May lose most of entire year’s data if only one trip is conducted under very turbid 

conditions. Two trips reduce that possibility. Good data on RBT status and trends at 

mouth of LCR seems important to managers. 

ii. PEP recommendation: Increase efforts toward HBC and nonnative fishes. 

1. One fall mainstem “aggregation” netting trip to be implemented in FY10, considered 

for inclusion in FY11-12. (Motor trip) 

2. One fall mainstem multi-gear trip to be implemented in FY10, considered for inclusion 

in FY11-12. (Non-motor trip). 

II. 2000 LSSF SYNTHESIS REPORT, by B. Ralston

 

[Draft report entered internal GCMRC review process February 24, 2010, external peer 

review expected in April 2010, anticipated availability August/September 2010 as a U.S. 

Geological Survey Open File Report] 

a. Sections include the following: 

i. Specific resources/variables covered 

ii. Mainstem & shoreline temperatures and habitats 

1. Sediment response incorporated into portions here 

iii. Fish downstream of Lees Ferry and in Glen Canyon

1. Sediment response incorporated into portions here 

iv. Aquatic food base in Glen Canyon 

v. Riparian vegetation 

vi. Recreation safety and perceptions 

1. Sediment response incorporated into portions here 

vii. Economics – financial costs, regional costs (jobs, equipment replacement) 

viii. Knowledge gained and opportunities to incorporate into future planning 

III. NONNATIVE FISH TECHNICAL REPORT 

“Nonnative Fish Control Options and Recommended Monitoring and Research Activities” by 

Kara D. Hilwig, Matthew E. Andersen, and Lewis G. Coggins, Jr. [report has undergone several 

reviews, finalization is awaiting non-native fish workshop in late March 2010 and results of 

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GCMRC Updates, continued 

Ecopath/Ecoism modeling workshop in early March and subsequent workshop for TWG 

members in mid-April (Saguaro Lake Ranch) described below. Planned U.S. Geological Survey 

Open File Report]. 

IV. NONNATIVE FISH WORKSHOP, MARCH 30-31, 2010 

Draft agenda in review, location not set yet (Flagstaff, or Phoenix). Day one planned for 

science topics and day two planned for management topics. 

V. 2008 HIGH FLOW EXPERIMENT REPORTS & PUBLICATION STATUS 

The following reports have been in preparation since fall 2009: 

a. Suspended-Sand Transport & Budgeting – Project 1.A - “Sediment transport during 

three controlled-flood experiments on the Colorado River downstream from Glen 

Canyon Dam, with implications for eddy-sandbar deposition in Grand Canyon National 

Park” by David J. Topping, David M. Rubin and others [availability anticipated by 

March 30, 2010 as a U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report],

b. Sandbar Modeling - Project 1.B - “Hydro-morphodynamics of two large eddies and 

associated sandbars along the Colorado River during high flow” by Scott A. Wright and 

Matt Kaplinski [Journal of Geophysical Research article, anticipated publication date - 

Spring 2010], 

c. Sandbar Changes - Project 1.C - “Sandbar Response Following the 2008 High-Flow 

Experiment on the Colorado River in Marble and Grand Canyons, Arizona” by Joe E. 

Hazel Jr., Paul E. Grams, John C. Schmidt and Matt Kaplinski [currently available at: 

www.gcmrc.gov and www.usgs.gov as U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Research 

Investigations Report 2010-5015], 

d. Sandbars and Cultural Sites - Project 1.C - Aeolian reworking of sandbars from the 

March 2008 Glen Canyon Dam high-flow experiment in Grand Canyon by Draut, A.E., 

Hazel, J.E., Jr., Fairley, H.C., Brown, C.R. [in press, in Melis, T.S., Hamill, J.F., 

Coggins, L.C., Jr., Grams, P.E., Kennedy, T.A., Kubly, D.M., and Ralston, B.E., eds., 

Proceedings of the Colorado River Basin Science and Resource Management 

Symposium, November 18-20, 2008: U.S. Geological Survey Circular, anticipated 

availability June 2010], 

e. Sandbars and Cultural Sites - Project 1.C – “Weather and aeolian sand-transport data 

from the Colorado River corridor, Grand Canyon, Arizona” by Draut, A.E., Sondossi, 

H.A., Hazel, J.E., Jr., Andrews, Timothy, Fairley, H.C., Brown, C.R., and Vanaman, 

K.M. [currently available at www.gcmrc.gov and www.usgs.gov as U.S. Geological 

Survey Open-File Report 2009-1190, 98 p. Link: 

www.gcmrc.gov/research/high_flow/2008/documents.aspx 

http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/usgspubs/ofr/ofr20091190], 

f. Sandbars and Backwaters - Project 1.D - “2008 High-Flow Experiment at Glen 

Canyon Dam: Morphologic Response of Eddy-Deposited Sandbars and Associated 

Aquatic Backwater Habitats along the Colorado River in Grand Canyon” by Paul E. 

Grams, John C. Schmidt, Matthew E. Andersen [currently available at www.gcmrc.gov

and www.usgs.gov as U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 2010-1032], 

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GCMRC Updates, continued 

g. Riparian Vegetation - Project 2 - “Riparian Vegetation Response to the March 2008 

Short-Duration, High-Flow Experiment—Implications of Timing and Frequency of 

Flood Disturbance on Nonnative Plant Establishment along the Colorado River below 

Glen Canyon Dam” by Barbara E. Ralston [currently available at: www.gcmrc.gov and 

www.usgs.gov as a U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 2010-1022], 

h. Aquatic Food Production – Project 3 - “Short-Term Effects of a High-Flow 

Experiment on Macroinvertebrates in the Colorado River below Glen Canyon Dam” by 

Emma J. Rosi-Marshall, Theodore A. Kennedy, Dustin W. Kincaid, Wyatt F. Cross, 

Holly A.W. Kelly, Katherine A. Behn, Tyler White, Robert O. Hall Jr. and Colden V. 

Baxter [currently available at: www.gcmrc.gov and www.usgs.gov as USGS Open File 

Report 2010-1031], 

i. Rainbow Trout Spawning & Survival – Project 4.A - “Effects of High-Flow 

Experiments from Glen Canyon Dam on Abundance, Growth, and Survival Rates of 

Early Life Stages of Rainbow Trout in the Lees Ferry Reach of the Colorado River” by 

Josh Korman, Matthew Kaplinski and Theodore S. Melis [currently available at: 

www.gcmrc.gov and www.usgs.gov as U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 2010-

1034], 

j. Rainbow Trout Downstream Movement – Project 4.B - “Evaluating effects of an HFE 

on rainbow trout: Using acoustic telemetry and relative abundance measures” by Kara 

Hilwig and Andy Makinster [in press, within U.S. Geological Survey Circular, 

Proceedings of the November 2008 Colorado River Science and Resource Management 

Symposium, anticipated availability in June 2010], 

k. Lake Powell & Glen Canyon Water Quality - Project 5 - “Effects of 2008 High-Flow 

Experiment on Water-Quality in Lake Powell and Glen Canyon Dam Releases, UtahArizona” by William Vernieu [anticipated availability, March 30, 2010, as a U.S. 

Geological Survey Open File Report], 

l. 2008 HFE Summary - U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet – “2008 High-Flow 

Experiment at Glen Canyon Dam Benefits Colorado River Resources in Grand Canyon 

National Park” by Theodore S. Melis, David J. Topping, Paul E. Grams, David M. 

Rubin, Scott A. Wright, Amy E. Draut, Joseph E. Hazel, Jr., Barbara E. Ralston, 

Theodore A. Kennedy, Emma Rosy-Marshall, Josh Koran, Kara D. Hilwig, and Lara M. 

Schmit, [available at: www.gcmrc.gov and www.usgs.gov as U.S. Geological Survey 

Fact Sheet 2010-3009], 

m. Kanab Amersnail Conservation Measure – Project 6 – KANAB AMBERSNAIL 

HABITAT MITIGATION FOR THE 2008 HIGH FLOW EXPERIMENT by Jeff A. 

Sorensen [cooperator report to GCMRC, available upon request to Mary Daugherty 

(mdaugherty@usgs.gov), 

n. HFE Synthesis – Project 7 – “Synthesis of High Flow Experimental Results Associated 

with 1996, 2004 and 2008 Tests at Glen Canyon Dam, AZ” by John C. Schmidt, Richard 

A. Valdez and others [in development during 2010 with anticipated availability in 

December 2010 as a U.S. Geological Survey Circular]. 

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GCMRC Updates, continued 

VI. PROPOSED APRIL 13-15, 2010 INTEGRATED MODELING WORKSHOP AT 

SAGUARDO LAKE RANCH, AZ 

As elements of the DOI-approved GCDAMP work plans and budgets, the GCMRC initiated 

research projects in FY 2008-10, on Integrated Flow, Sediment, and Temperature modeling (led 

by Dr. Scott Wright, USGS) and advanced aquatic ecosystem modeling (led by Dr. Carl Walters, 

University of Florida) of the Colorado River ecosystem below Glen Canyon Dam. During FY 

2008-09, significant progress has been made in both interrelated research projects and the 

GCMRC has worked with scientists from both teams to foster integration of the modeling 

advances. In March 2010, members from both research teams will join forces in a science 

workshop held in Cedar Key, Florida, specifically to further advance the aquatic ecosystem 

modeling, which was first initiated in the late 1990s with development of the Grand Canyon 

Ecosystem Model. Following is a short prospectus on the March 2010 ecosystem modeling 

workshop: 

Cedar Key Aquatic Modeling Workshop Prospectus – Facilitated by Dr. Carl J. Walters, 

University of Florida 

The aim of the March 2010, Cedar Key aquatic ecosystem modeling workshop will be to continue development of 

Ecopath/Ecosim ecosystem mass balance models for the Lees Ferry tail waters and Little Colorado River 

confluence reaches of the Colorado River ecosystem below Glen Canyon Dam. These models will incorporate 

information from previous and ongoing food web and fish studies on production processes and trophic flows, and 

will extend food web assessments developed by food web researchers to make dynamic predictions over time using 

Ecosim. One key aim of the model-based analysis will be to identify and quantify a set of precise alternative 

hypotheses for the recent decline of the Lees Ferry trout population, its prospects for recovery, and possible linkages 

between productivity in the Lees Ferry reach and previous experimental high flows released from the dam (key 

input to the current 2010 HFE synthesis). A second aim will be to evaluate the hypothesis that recent increases 

in humpback chub juvenile abundance and apparent successful rearing in the Colorado River mainstem owes to 

reduced competition with and predation by rainbow trout, and that nearshore warming may result in replacement 

of negative trout effects with comparably negative effects by warmwater, exotic fishes. Thus, the aquatic ecosystem 

models will be used not only to integrate available ecological production data, but also to identify key uncertainties 

about possible dynamic responses of key aquatic resources to continuing experimental manipulations like high 

flows from the dam and mechanical removal of exotics. 

Following the Cedar Key workshop, the GCMRC proposes convening a second modeling 

workshop at Saguaro Lake Ranch, Arizona in April; one specifically designed to allow TWG 

members to interact with both the Integrated Modeling Project (April 13th) and Ecosystem 

Modeling (April 14-15) researchers to learn more about the status of advances made by both 

teams over the last two years. The GCMRC is also collaborating with Dr. Josh Korman 

(Ecometric Research) to facilitate the April workshop and encourages all TWG members to 

take advantage of this unique opportunity to interact with the modelers as they work to develop 

the FY 2011-12 work plans and budgets for the GCDAMP. 

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GCMRC Updates, continued 

DRAFT AGENDA 

Saguaro Lake Ranch 

13020 Bush Highway, Mesa, AZ 85215 

Tuesday April 13th

Integrated Physical Modeling Update & Stakeholder Interactions (Scott Wright, Paul Grams and others 

w/ Josh Korman and Ted Melis, facilitators) 

“Integrated Temperature, Flow & Sediment Modeling – Status & Next Steps?” 

09:00 AM Introductions 

Topic #1 - Shifting rating curve model for sand transport -- Explanation of model and 

example applications. Example application 1: use of model to predict relative sand 

retention magnitude for given tributary input volumes and a range of alternative damoperation scenarios. Example application 2: potential use of model in development of 

high-flow trigger criteria. 

10:00 AM Topic #2 - Three-dimensional modeling of eddies -- Explanation of model and example 

application in assessing various options for peak flow magnitude and duration. 

11:00 AM Discussion on potential applications for flow and sediment transport models. 

12:00 PM Lunch

01:00 PM Topic #3 - Monthly average temperature model -- Explanation of model and example 

application. 

02:00 PM Topic #4 - Usteady temperature model -- Explanation of model and example 

application for evaluating potential use of a temperature control device. 

03:00 PM Topic #5 - Two-dimensional temperature model -- Explanation of model and example 

application for predicting water temperature for near-shore areas in support of nearshore ecology project. 

04:00 PM Discussion on temperature and habitat models with possible discussion on the potential 

for development of a habitat suitability model for trout in Glen Canyon. 

 

05:00 PM Adjourn

06:30 PM Dinner

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GCMRC Updates, continued 

Wednesday April 14 – 15th 

Integrated Ecosystem Modeling Workshop & Stakeholder Interactions (Carl Walters and others 

w/Josh Korman and Ted Melis, facilitators) 

“Outcomes of the March 2010 Ecosim Modeling Workshop at Cedar Key, FL” 

Wednesday April 14th 

08:30 AM – Introductions & Background 

09:00 AM – Topic #1 - General methods and findings about structure of the GC aquatic food 

web 

10:30 AM - Break

11:00 AM –-Topic #2 - Alternative hypotheses for changes in food web productivity in the 

Lees Ferry reach: impacts of long term changes in minimum flows, BHBF flows, and Lake 

Powell levels 

NOON – Lunch

01:00 PM – Discussion with stakeholders on topics #1 and #2 

03:00 PM – Break

03:30 PM – Topic #3 - Causes of variation in recruitment and growth of Lees Ferry rainbow 

trout, linkage of trout changes with downstream abundances changes of native fish 

05:00 PM – Adjourn 

06:30 PM - Dinner

Thursday April 15th 

08:30 AM – Summary of Day 1 topics & outcome 

09:00 AM – Topic #4 - Dynamic changes in the aquatic ecosystem near the LCR; mechanisms 

that have caused recent dramatic increases in native fish abundance; policy implication for 

native fish recovery of linkages between trout and flow regulation, minimum requirements for 

non-native fish control to maintain continued recovery of native fishes 

10:30 AM - Break

11:00 AM – stakeholder interactions on topics 3 & 4 

NOON – Lunch

01: 00 PM – Adjourn

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GCMRC Updates, continued 

NOTE - Information about reserving accommodations and taking meals at Saguaro Lake 

Ranch – there are 27 cabins available on a first-come first-serve basis that can accommodate up 

to 54 persons (sharing rooms) or 27 (all with single accommodation). Please see the letter 

below and call the Ranch to make your reservations. They will also ask you about which meals 

you may want to take while at the workshop. Ask about alternative accommodations when you 

call if they are fully booked or you desire to stay off site at another location. 

Saguaro Lake Ranch 

13020 Bush Highway, Mesa, AZ 85215 

Phone: 480-984-2194 Fax: 480-380-1489 

saguarolakeranch.com 

November 25, 2009 

Ted Melis 

tmelis@usgs.gov

Dear TedThank you for your phone call and request for information about the possibility of having two 

conferences here in 2010. The first conference would be a small group of 10 attendees for the 

two nights of January 20th and 21st. The second group would be a larger group of 30-40 for the 

three nights of April 12th, 13th and 14th. We currently have both dates available. 

Our daily conference rate is $150 per person, double occupancy, and $175 for a single. This 

includes lodging, three meals, meeting space and beverage/snack breaks. State sales tax of 

7% and optional gratuities or activities would be additional. We have several rooms in the 

lodge as well as an outbuilding which we use for meetings. If you need to break down the 

daily rate for the federal per diem rates, the single rate of $175 is $115 for room and $60 for food, 

the double rate of $150 is $90 for room and $60 for food. 

The ranch enjoys a spectacular location, offers comfortable accommodations and delicious 

food as well as a unique atmosphere conducive to education and team building. We appreciate 

your interest in our facility and look forward to providing your groups with all of the amenities 

important to creating a successful learning experience. Please contact me with any further 

questions and we hope to hear from you soon. 

Sincerely, 

Stephen V. Durand 

General Manager 

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GCMRC Updates, continued 

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VII. UPDATE ON STATUS OF THE CULTURAL MONITORING R&D PROJECT 

In 2008 and 2009, the Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC) was not 

permitted to continue evaluating the use of LIDAR technology as a monitoring tool for 

tracking status and trends at archaeological sites within Grand Canyon National Park 

(GRCA). GRCA has now agreed to issue a permit to allow the project, including the 

continuing evaluation of LIDAR technology, to occur at 10 sites in 2010. In February, 

GRCA and GCMRC staff worked together to collaboratively identify the sites that will be 

the focus of 2010 fieldwork, and a final list was determined. GRCA is now in the process of 

issuing a permit for the 2010 fieldwork, which is scheduled to commence on April 9, 2010. 

A geomorphic workshop and an analysis of the archaeological site database will also be 

conducted later this year, and the results will be used to help determine a representative 

sample of sites for the Phase II (pilot monitoring) portion of this project starting in 2011. In 

the current (03/02/10) version of the draft FY2011-2012 budget, proposed funding for the 

pilot program has been substantially reduced from what was originally planned and 

requested. The current proposed budget is now approximately 50% less than what is needed 

to complete the pilot project in a three year time frame; therefore, if the project budget 

remains at its current reduced funding level, at least 50% more time will be required to 

complete the pilot phase of this project. 
Technical Work Group 

Informational Update 

March 15-16, 2010

Agenda Item 

Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC) Updates – Sediment 

Action Requested

√ These items are for information and discussion. Opportunity for questions will be provided at the 

meeting on March 15-16, 2010. 

Preparer

David Topping, Hydrologist, GCMRC or Paul Grams, Supervisory Hydrologist, GCMRC 

Previous Action Taken 

N/A 

Relevant Science

N/A 

Background Information

• Current Temperature and Sediment Conditions 

Mainstem river temperatures peaked at about 18° C at Diamond Creek in late July 2009. 

Temperatures at this location have been similar for the past 4 years, which is lower than the 

peak temperatures of approximately 19° to 20° C reached in the 2000-2005 period. 

Mass-balance sand budgets have been computed for the period beginning immediately after the 

March 2008 high flow extending through January 2010 for 3 mainstem reaches: (1) Upper 

Marble Canyon (0-30 mile), (2) Lower Marble Canyon (30-61 mile), and (3) Eastern Grand 

Canyon (61-87 mile). Mass balance sand budgets may be available by the time of the TWG 

meeting for the two additional mainstem reaches: (1) Central Grand Canyon (87-166 mile), and 

(2) Western Grand Canyon (166-225 mile). The completed computations show that net sand 

export occurred in Upper Marble Canyon and Eastern Grand Canyon and that the budget is 

indeterminate but trending negative in Lower Marble Canyon. Tributary sediment inputs were 

small in 2008, 2009, and, to date, have been negligible in 2010. Multiple moderate tributary 

input events or a single large input would be required to move the system to a condition of 

significant positive sand mass balance. 

Sediment modeling applications, as presented at the January 2010 Annual Reporting meeting 

will also be reviewed and discussed. 

The high-resolution sediment-transport data used to construct these sediment budgets is posted 

on the GCMRC website: http://www.gcmrc.gov/products/other_data/gcmrc.aspx. 

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