Evaluating Race and Hispanic 

Origin in Administrative Records 

Relative to the 2010 Census 

Sonya Rastogi 

U.S. Census Bureau 

Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology 

Research Conference 

November 4, 2013 

This presentation is released to inform interested parties of ongoing research and to encourage discussion of 

work in progress. The views expressed on technical, statistical, or methodological issues are those of the author 

and not necessarily those of the U.S. Census Bureau.
Overview

• Motivation for research 

• 2010 Census Match Study 

demographic response analysis 

• Administrative records Hispanic origin 

and race assignment and comparison 

to 2010 Census 

• Conclusion and next steps 

2 
Motivation

• Implement use of administrative records 

(AR) 

• Address missing race and Hispanic origin 

data 

• Previous research – low quality race and 

Hispanic AR for minorities 

• Goal – Understand individual sources and 

data quality issues 

3 
2010 Census Match Study 

Demographic Response Analysis
Research Question #1

• What is the agreement of Hispanic 

origin and race responses between 

the 2010 Census and AR sources? 

5 
Data

• 2010 Census data (as reported, no proxy) 

• Three different files from Housing and Urban 

Development (HUD) 

• Indian Health Service (IHS) 

• Medicare (MEDB) 

• Numerical Identification System (Numident) 

• Previous Census Records 

• Temporary Assistance for Needy Families 

(TANF) 

• 4 Commercial Files 

6 
Methodology

•

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Agreement of Hispanic Origin Response 

Administrative Records Source 

File

Percent in 

Agreement: 

Non-Hispanic 

Percent in 

Agreement: Hispanic 

Federal Files 

 Previous Census Records 99.4 93.1

 Numident N/A 54.2

 HUDCHUMS 98.5 80.0

 HUDPIC 98.1 86.0

 HUDTRACS 98.6 78.6

 TANF 98.3 70.7

 MEDB N/A 29.4

Commercial Files 

 Commercial File 1 98.2 83.5

 Commercial File 2 98.0 77.3

 Commercial File 3 98.0 80.2

 Commercial File 4 97.9 77.1

Source: 2010 Census and Administrative Records 8 
Agreement of Race Response 

2010 Census Race Range in Percent Agreement by AR 

Source Files 

Federal Commercial 

White Alone 96.1 to 99.1 94.7 to 97.9

Black Alone 87.4 to 98.3 37.3 to 61.1

Asian Alone 58.0 to 94.1 73.6 to 85.2

American Indian or Alaska Native Alone (AIAN) 24.6 to 97.6 6.4 to 13.2 

Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander Alone 

(NHPI) 

37.0 to 76.0 14.3 to 19.2

Some Other Race Alone 14.1 to 54.9 1.1 to 3.4 

Two or More Races 3.6 to 36.3 N/A 

Source: 2010 Census and Administrative Records 

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AR and 2010 Comparisons after 

assignment of Hispanic Origin 

and Race Response from all AR 

Sources
Research Question #2

• What are the characteristics of people 

whose Hispanic origin and race 

responses match, do not match, or 

are missing in AR? 

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Data

• 2010 Census data (as reported, no proxy) 

• AR Hispanic 

• All files used in Census Match Study 

• Medicaid Statistical Information System 

(MSIS) 

• Texas Supplemental Nutrition Assistance 

Program (SNAP) 

• AR Race 

• All files used in Census Match Study except 

commercial data 

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Method to Assign AR 

Hispanic Origin Response

Case # AR Source 1 AR Source 2 AR Source 3 AR Source 4 AR Hispanic 

1 Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic 

2 Missing Non-Hispanic Missing Missing Non-Hispanic 

3 Hispanic Hispanic Missing Hispanic Hispanic 

4 Missing Hispanic Missing Missing Hispanic 

5 Hispanic Non-Hispanic Missing Hispanic Hispanic 

6 Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic Hispanic Hispanic 

7 Missing Missing Missing Missing Missing 

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Method to Assign 

AR Race Response

Case # AR Source 1 AR Source 2 AR Source 3 AR Source 4 AR Race 

1 Missing White alone White alone White alone White alone 

2 Black alone Missing Black alone Black alone Black alone 

3 NHPI alone White alone Missing NHPI alone NHPI alone 

4 NHPI alone AIAN alone White alone Missing NHPI alone 

5 AIAN alone White alone Missing AIAN alone AIAN alone 

6 Asian alone AIAN alone Missing AIAN alone AIAN alone 

7 Asian alone Missing Black alone Asian alone Asian alone 

8 Missing Missing Missing Missing Missing 

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Methodology

• Multinomial logistic regression 

– Dependent variable has 3 categories 

• Matched response (Reference) 

• Unmatched response 

• Missing AR response 

– Separate regressions for Hispanic origin 

and race 

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Distribution of Dependent Variables, 

Census-AR Linked Data 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Match Non-Match Missing Data 

87.5% 

77.7% 

3.3% 5.7% 9.2% 

16.6% 

Hispanic Origin Race

Source: 2010 Census and Administrative Records 

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Select Multinomial Logistic Regression Results, Odds 

Ratios

Hispanic Origin Model Race Model 

Non-matching 

responses 

Missing in AR Non-matching 

responses 

Missing in AR 

Ethnicity in Census (Not Hispanic omitted) 

 Hispanic 1.61*** 0.67*** 43.74*** 11.37*** 

Race in Census (Non-Hispanic White alone 

omitted) 

 Non-Hispanic Black alone 0.68*** 0.88*** 1.70*** 0.70*** 

 Non-Hispanic AIAN alone 2.21*** 0.95*** 13.87*** 0.41*** 

 Non-Hispanic Asian alone 2.48*** 3.03*** 6.27*** 10.45*** 

 Non-Hispanic NHPI alone 3.48*** 1.77*** 38.75*** 9.08*** 

Age (18-44 years old omitted) 

 0-17 years old 1.20*** 14.87*** 1.88*** 16.13*** 

 45-64 years old 0.96*** 0.37*** 0.99*** 0.49*** 

 65+ years old 0.85*** 0.21*** 0.91*** 0.19*** 

Regressions include variables for gender, region, household type, household size, tenure, rural, census mode, median 

income in tract, and percent tract non-Hispanic White. 

Hispanic Model n: 253,639,590 

Race Model n: 256,138,867 

***p<.001 

Source: 2010 Census and Administrative Records 

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Conclusion and Next Steps

• Similar findings relative to work in 2000, AR 

responses for minority groups lower relative to 

non-Hispanic whites 

• Pursue additional federal, state, commercial 

data to fill gaps where AR race and Hispanic 

origin agreement is low relative to the 2010 

Census 

• Research additional business rules 

• Tease out racial and Hispanic origin fluidity from 

data quality issues 

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Thank You!

sonya.rastogi@census.gov 

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