A Vision and Roadmap for 

Education Statistics: 

Overview

Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology 

Session D-5

Amy O’Hara, Georgetown University and Study Panel Member

Melissa Chiu, Deputy Director, Committee on National Statistics and Study Director

OCTOBER 26, 2022
Charge to the Panel

• Review trends and developments in using alternative data sources

• Consider current and future priorities

• Vision and roadmap for next 7 years 

– Recommend future portfolio of products and activities 

– Suggest changes to NCES’s programs and operations

– Ways to increase impact

• Focus on NCES’s statistical programs 

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From Department of Education’s Institute of Education Sciences (IES) to study 

the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES)
Education Data Landscape Changing Rapidly

• Student populations more diverse 

• Explosion of data sources 

• Strong interest in evidence-based decision making

– Foundations for Evidence-Based Policymaking Act of 2018

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Three trends provide context for the study
Reimagining NCES

What would an education statistics agency 

be and do if it were established today? 

Condition: assume same level of resources for immediate actionability

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Panel’s approach to the charge
The Vision

• Act and make decisions strategically 

• Nimble, adapting to changes in environment 

• Relevant, timely, reliable products and services 

• Creative partnerships

• Strong role in evidence building 

• Grasp opportunities of new data sources for analytic insights

• Expand services in data governance and data facilitation

• Strategically responsive to stakeholders

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NCES as a leader of the 21st-century education data ecosystem
Recommendations and Conclusions

• Need transformative rather than marginal change to make true progress

• 5 conclusions, 15 recommendations

• Operational details and illustrative examples to assist with implementation

• Fundamental recommendations in Chapter 2 are the most transformative

• NCES is currently addressing some aspects of these recommendations – yet the 

Center can push further to fully embody each recommendation

• Conditions are better than ever to take action

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Actions to realize the vision 
Fundamental 

Recommendations

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Act and Make Decisions Strategically

• Strategic planning to make tough tradeoff decisions (Rec. 2-1) 

– IES and ED support and empower NCES to be independent, yet strategically aligned (Recs. 2-2, 2-1)

• Prioritize data collections, products (especially consider diversity) (Recs. 2-4, 3-1, 3-2; Con. 3-1) 

• Expand data sources to gain new insights (Recs. 2-5, 2-6, 4-2) 

• Expand data access services for evidence building and research (Recs. 2-3, 4-4, 4-5; Con. 4-1) 

• Expand stakeholder engagements to ensure relevance (Recs. 4-1, 4-2, 4-3) 

• Improve dissemination and usefulness for broader impact (Con. 4-2, Rec. 4-6)

• Leverage external resources as a force multiplier to extend impact (e.g., Recs. 4-4, 4-5, 5-1, 4-2; 

Con. 4-1)

• Strategically organize, use resources to build internal capabilities and culture of innovation (Cons. 5-

1, 5-2; Recs. 5-1, 2-4)

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Incentivizing innovation and creative partnerships for greater impact, Rec. 2-1
Maximize NCES’s Unique Value for Evidence 

Building

• Mission expanded by Evidence Act – new authority and mandate to acquire data from 

federal agencies and to facilitate access to data 

• Collaborate within ED –Statistical Official connects Chief Data Officer, Evaluation 

Officer by turning data into high-quality information fit to inform policy, decision making

• Build stronger partnerships with NCEE, NCER, NCSER – collaboratively decide

– the priority datasets NCES should acquire and link, and 

– providing access to external researchers as a force multiplier for answering Learning Agenda 

questions (also Rec. 4-5)

• Collaborate with data-holding agencies and organizations (Rec. 4-2)

• Support state and local education agencies in data access and linkage (Rec. 4-4)

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Increasing value of data products and services, Rec. 2-3
Expand Data Sources to Gain New Insights 

• Use and develop new data sources, data linkage, especially administrative data 

• Study quality, fitness for use, bridging, and series continuity 

• Expand responsible, secure access and linkage tools 

• Partner within IES, ED, and with other federal statistical agencies

– Data-science methods to harness and link data

– Strengthen impact of techniques

– Develop useful products and processes (Rec. 4-2)

• Modernize consent language, permit secondary uses, privacy-protected linkage 

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Acquiring data strategically to improve efficiency, timeliness, and relevance, 

Recs. 2-5, 2-6
Embed Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, and Accessibility 

Awareness for Relevance & Accuracy

• Throughout the data lifecycle

– Data content and questionnaire design –

• Not only measurement of groups, but ... 

• Measurement of any social construct that may have different interpretations for different groups 

• Outcomes and the educational process: Equity, access to education, opportunity to learn (Ch. 3)

– Collection – ethics and benefits/reciprocation to respondents

– Processing, imputation, machine learning, algorithms – avoid reinforcing historical assumptions 

– Products & dissemination – thoughtful questions, inclusive language, accessible formats (Con. 4-2)

• Throughout the organization and work 

– Staff, stakeholders, contractors and contracts, external researchers, fellows

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Enabling nimble adaptation to serve contemporary communities in the world of 

education, Rec. 2-4
Engagement and 

Partnerships 

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Engage Researchers– Evidence Building

• Establish a joint statistical research program (JSRP)

– expand access to restricted data, can leverage existing data license program 

– match internal staff with highly qualified external researchers, statisticians, data scientists 

• Collaborate within IES – promote/signal important areas (strategic analytic agenda) to build up 

research, analysis, and evidence to advance knowledge on those topics 

• Expand reach and impact

– Develop community of users (also Rec. 4-1) 

– Partner with other federal agencies with extramural research or other data-access programs (also Rec. 4-2) 

– Support state & local researchers and analysts build capacity to link and analyze data (Rec. 4-4)

– Expand role in data governance, facilitation of data linkage, access, and use (Con. 4-1)

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Partnering with External Researchers and Analysts for Evidence Building, 

Rec. 4-5
Engage Researchers– Consulting

• Explore and establish creative models for a nimble, ongoing consulting body

– Help innovation, continual improvement

– (Moral) accountability for progress on strategic goals

– May provide backing when NCES faces difficult decisions

– Regular members, continuing relationship

– NOT subject Federal Advisory Committee Act

• Supplemented by a pool of ad hoc consultants

– Depends on particular expertise as the need arises

– Varying experts, periodic, time-limited

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Receiving and using the help of an external review body, Rec. 4-3
Support State and Local Education Agencies

• Set priority activities, goals, outcomes for Statewide Longitudinal Data Systems (SLDS) awards

– Award proposals that are high value and meet these criteria, e.g., for –

– Infrastructure investments for high-value data linkages (e.g., across social domains) to build new insights

– States to share data, facilitate data access, provide technical assistance, analytic assistance to local 

education agencies (LEAs)

– States to facilitate collaborations among regions or groups of LEAs 

– Generating products and tools useful to LEAs and SEAs

– Creating shareable data to benefit all states 

• Establish state liaisons for data and statistics, modeled on existing assessment program 

coordinators

– Execute standards and data access security, build data linkages, support LEAs, support NCES collections 

• Create relevant, actionable, timely products 

– Especially for local and state education agencies, who often lack data analysis resources (Rec. 4-6)

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Scaling NCES’s impact by strengthening state and local capacity for evidence 

building, Rec. 4-4, Con. 4-1
Engage Researchers– Internal Capacity Building

• Current organizational structure limits innovation (Con. 5-1)

• Overreliance on contractors, high turnover endanger NCES’s ability to retain institutional 

knowledge and build internal capabilities needed to meet its strategic goals (Con. 5-2)

• Leverage contractors and creative staffing (e.g., research fellows, IPAs) to work 

collaboratively with staff to build internal capacity (Rec. 5-1)

• Joint statistical research program (Rec. 4-5) and nimble, ongoing consulting body (Rec. 4-3)–

benefits to NCES

– External analysts, consultants contribute innovative ideas, support a learning-centered environment at 

NCES

– Increase diversity of researchers, innovative ideas (also Rec. 2-4) 

– Improve methods, data quality, fitness for purpose, understand questions and emerging issues

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Leveraging external resources strategically to build internal capabilities and 

culture of innovation, Recs. 4-3, 4-5, 5-1
QUESTIONS? 

CONTACT

Melissa C. Chiu

Deputy Director, CNSTAT 

Study Director, A Vision and Roadmap 

for Education Statistics 

mchiu@nas.edu 

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READ THE FULL REPORT AND RESOURCES

https://doi.org/10.17226/26392

LEARN MORE ABOUT CNSTAT

www.nationalacademies.org/cnstat

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https://nap.nationalacademies.org/author/CNSTAT/
Appendix Slides –

Recommendation 

Details 

A

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Prioritize Topics, Data Content, and Statistical 

Products to Maintain Relevance

• NCES cannot be all things to all stakeholders 

• Limited resources necessitate hard choices 

• Recommend NCES use a systematic method to review data acquisition activities and 

– Prioritize topics most relevant to understanding contemporary education

– Discontinue activities disproportionately costly and burdensome, relative to their value

• Choices best made by NCES during strategic planning (now is premature) 

• Numerous Congressionally-mandated topics in law 

– May no longer reflect what is important for understanding contemporary education (Con. 3-1)

– Revisit priorities mandated by Congress and, where appropriate, make recommendations for 

changes (Rec. 3-2)

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Prioritizing content to be effective with limited resources, Rec. 3-1 
Prioritize Topics, Data Content, and Statistical 

Products to Maintain Relevance – Specific Thoughts

• Panel conducted a process with limited information (App. C); the resulting priorities─ 

• Equity and access issues: outcomes, educational processes and implementation, 

access to education, opportunity to learn 

• Early childhood education 

• Career and technical education, adult education including literacy 

• Educational environment

– Administrative infrastructure– teaching workforce, training, recruiting, placement, turnover

– Technology and tools– access to and use of technology, online education 

– Cross-state and international comparisons– differences in curricula, policies, practices

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High-value topics and data needs where NCES can advance the topic, Ch. 3, 

App. C 
Expand Stakeholder Engagements to Ensure Relevance

• Create relevant, actionable, timely products 

– Especially for local and state education agencies 

• Improve accessibility and usability to benefit a broader audience (Con. 4-2)

• Review and revise internal and external quality assurance processes to match use and 

timeliness needs

• Create and incorporate feedback loops

– Deepen and broader engagement to gather continual feedback about user needs (Rec. 4-1)

– Establish a nimble, ongoing consulting body (Rec. 4-3)

– Collaborate with data-holding federal agencies and organizations for relevant products (Rec. 4-2)

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Improving dissemination and usefulness for broader impact, Rec. 4-6, Con. 4-2
Flatlined Program Funds = Loss of Purchasing Power

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• Statistics Program

• FY 2010: $109M 

• FY 2021 buying power: ~$131M 

17% less buying power

• FY 2021 Actual: $112M 

• Difference: >$19M less

• SLDS Program

• FY 2005: $25M

• FY 2009: $65M

• FY 2013: $36M

• FY 2021: $34M

Note: Figure does not show the 

allocations from ED’s Salaries and 

Expenses (S&E) appropriation, 

which pay NCES’s employees
NCES Employees Manage More Dollars Than Other 

Principal Statistical Agencies(Ch. 5)

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• The average number of 

dollars managed per 

employee was nearly 

three times larger for 

NCES ($2.8M) than each of 

the next three largest 

agencies

• Heavy reliance on contractors

• Can result in knowledge loss 

over time

Colors denote agency size in FTEs 

– Yellows = small 

– Blues = medium 

– Greys = large 
Staffing Declined as Scope Increased (Ch. 1, App. D)

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• Net loss since FY 2003

• NCES: 23 FTEs (20%)

• Statistics units: 25 FTEs (30%)

• Net loss since FY 2010 

peak is starker

• NCES: 34 FTEs (27%) 

• Statistics units: 28 FTEs (33%) 

Note: NCES’s employees are paid via 

an allocation from ED’s Salaries and 

Expenses (S&E) appropriation
Roadmap 3

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