Agree to Disagree?

Comparing IRS, NCOA, and Census Bureau 

Survey Migration Measures

Brad Foster, U.S. Census Bureau

Mark Ellis & Lee Fiorio, University of Washington

October 25, 2023

FCSM

1

Any opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views of 

the U.S. Census Bureau. The Census Bureau has ensured appropriate access and use of confidential data 

and has reviewed these results for disclosure avoidance protection (Project 7523373: CBDRB-FY22-

CES005-018; CBDRB-FY24-CES010-001).
Annual Interstate Migration, 1948 - 2022

2

3.6

1.3

1.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Interstate Migration Rate

CPS-ASEC

Source: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/geographic-mobility/historic.html
Annual Interstate Migration, 1948 - 2022

3

3.6

1.3

1.5

2.5

2.2

2.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Interstate Migration Rate

CPS-ASEC

ACS

Sources: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/geographic-mobility/historic.html; ACS table B074012. 
“Many little differences...”

• Ihrke, Koerber, and Fields (2015):

“The best conclusion we can provide is that there is not a simple, single 

answer explaining why mover rates do not match. The ACS and ASEC 

are two surveys with many little differences, all of which likely 

contribute to any observable difference.”

• Question wording, residency rules, population universes, modes of 

data collection, reference periods, nonresponse and allocation rates, 

sample design and county coverage, and sampling frames.

4
Annual Interstate Migration, 1948 - 2022

5

3.6

1.5

2.1

1.3

2.5

2.1

2.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Interstate Migration Rate

CPS-ASEC

ACS

Sources: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/geographic-mobility/historic.html; ACS table B074012; 

Author tabulations of weighted, unedited CPS-ASEC and weighted, unedited, non-GQ, and March ACS responses. CBDRBFY24-CES010-001.

Kaplan and Schulhofer-Wohl (2012)
Yes, “many little differences”, but...

• Accounting as best we can for these little differences still leaves large 

gaps in ACS and CPS-ASEC interstate migration rates.

• Ihrke, Koerber, and Fields (2015) outline several directions for future 

research, including comparing survey measures to analogous 

administrative record measures

• Hyatt, McEntarfer, Ueda, and Zhang (2018) – Compared CPS-ASEC to LEHD

• Foster, Ellis, and Fiorio (2018a, 2018b) – Compared ACS to IRS

• Foster, Ellis, and Fiorio (2022) – Compared ACS and CPS-ASEC to NCOA

6
Annual Interstate Migration, 1948 - 2022

7

3.6

1.5

2.1

2.5

2.1

3.1

2.8

2.5

2.7

2.9 3.0

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Interstate Migration Rate

CPS-ASEC

ACS

Public 1040s 

(Tax Units)

Public 1040s 

(Exemptions)

Internal 1040s & 1099s 

(Individuals)

Sources: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/geographic-mobility/historic.html; ACS table B074012; Author 

tabulations of weighted, unedited CPS-ASEC, weighted, unedited, non-GQ, and March ACS responses, and IRS 1040s and 1099s; 

https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-migration-data (smoothed in 2015 and 2017); CBDRB-FY24-CES010-001.
We test three potential explanations:

1. Shifts in the tax universe in favor of migrants.

• Hypothesis: True migration rate is falling, but tax universe is 

disproportionately and increasingly comprised of migrants.

2. Shifts among survey respondents in favor of non-migrants.

• Hypothesis: True migration rate is stable, but survey respondents (CPS-ASEC, 

in particular) are disproportionately and increasingly comprised of nonmigrants. 

3. Decreased survey reporting of moves found in tax data.

• Hypothesis: True migration rate is stable, but changes of address in tax data 

are increasingly less likely to be reported by survey respondents (CPS-ASEC 

respondents, in particular).

8
Data

Administrative Records

• IRS 1040s and information returns (W2s/1099s) for filing years 2004 to 2021

• Look for changes in state location 

between y-1 and y

• Filing deadline approximates March 

supplement

• National Change of Address (NCOA) 

data for 2019 to 2021

Census Bureau Surveys

• ACS and CPS-ASEC responses from 

2005 – 2021

• Residence 1 year ago responses to 

look for change in state

• For comparability, restrict ACS to nonGQ March responses

9

• Link individuals within and across sources using Protected Identification Keys 

(PIKs) (Wagner and Layne 2014)

• PIK and Match rates stable over time: IRS covers ~70% of ACS and ~62% of CPS-ASEC all 

respondents, or ~75% of ACS and ~70% of CPS-ASEC PIKed respondents
Shift in tax universe in favor of 

migrants?

10
No evidence of changes in the composition of 

the tax universe in favor of migrants.

11

1.2

2.0

1.8

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Interstate Migration Rate

CPS-ASEC

ACS

Sources: Author tabulations of unweighted, unedited CPS-ASEC and unweighted, unedited, non-GQ, March ACS responses 

linked with migration from IRS 1040d and 1099s. CBDRB-FY24-CES010-001.

Survey Migration Rate (All Respondents, Unweighted)

Survey Migration Rate (IRS-Linked Respondents, Unweighted)
Shift among survey respondents 

in favor of non-migrants?

12
Declining ACS and CPS-ASEC Response Rates 

13

97.3

84.4

84.3

59.6

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022

Response Rate

ACS

CPS-ASEC

Survey Response Rate

Sources: Author tabulations of ACS and CPS-ASEC responses. CBDRB-FY24-CES010-001. 
Declining Migration Item Response Rates 

14

97.3

84.4

84.3

59.6

88.3

89.4

74.9

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022

Response Rate

ACS

CPS-ASEC

Migration Item Response Rate (among survey respondents)

Survey Response Rate

Sources: Author tabulations of ACS and CPS-ASEC responses. CBDRB-FY24-CES010-001. 
Less than half of CPS-ASEC sample responded to 

the migration item in 2021...

15

97.3

84.4

84.3

59.6

88.3

89.4

74.9

94.5

75.4

48.7

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022

Response Rate

ACS

CPS-ASEC

Survey Response Rate

Migration Item Response Rate (among survey respondents)

Overall Migration Item Response Rate (among those sampled)

Sources: Author tabulations of ACS and CPS-ASEC responses. CBDRB-FY24-CES010-001. 
However, no evidence of a shift among survey 

respondents in favor of non-migrants...

16

2.9 3.0

2.6

2.2 2.2

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Interstate Migration Rate

Sources: Author tabulations of migrants in IRS 1040s and 1099s linked with unedited CPS-ASEC migration responses and 

unedited, non-GQ, March ACS migration responses. CBDRB-FY24-CES010-001.

Internal 1040s & 1099s 

(All Individuals)

Internal 1040s & 1099s 

(CPS-Linked Individuals)

Internal 1040s & 1099s 

(ACS-Linked Individuals)
Decreased survey reporting of 

moves found in tax data?

17
Increasingly, moves are captured only in the 

IRS data (particularly in the CPS-ASEC linked sample) 

18

30.4

35.1

23.9

23.5

45.7

41.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Share of all Interstate Migrants

38.9

53.1

21.1

15.0

31.9

ACS CPS-ASEC

Migrant in both Survey and IRS

IRS Migrant Only

Survey Migrant Only

Sources: Author tabulations of migrants in IRS 1040s and 1099s linked with unedited CPS-ASEC migration responses and 

unedited, non-GQ, March ACS migration responses. CBDRB-FY24-CES010-001.
IRS moves are increasingly unlikely to be 

captured in ACS and CPS-ASEC responses...

19

60.1

54.2 50.7

37.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Share of IRS Interstate Moves 

Captured in Surveys

CPS-ASEC

ACS

Sources: Author tabulations of migrants in IRS 1040s and 1099s linked with unedited CPS-ASEC migration responses and 

unedited, non-GQ, March ACS migration responses. CBDRB-FY24-CES010-001.

Restricted to Unedited/Nonimputed Migration Responses
Including edited and imputed migration responses 

highlights item nonresponse effects:

20

60.0

53.0

60.1

54.2

44.7

29.9

50.7

37.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Share of IRS Interstate Moves 

Captured in Surveys

CPS-ASEC

ACS

Restricted to Unedited/Non-imputed Migration Responses

All Migration Responses (3-year moving average) 

Sources: Author tabulations of migrants in IRS 1040s and 1099s linked with CPS-ASEC migration responses and non-GQ, 

March ACS migration responses. CBDRB-FY24-CES010-001.
(Dis)Agreement between NCOA address changes and 

survey responses

• ACS and CPS-ASEC 

householders with 

unedited migration 

responses

• Look for permanent

NCOA filings in the 1-

year period referenced in 

survey responses

21

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2021 2020 2021

ACS CPS

Share of Permanent NCOA Interstate Moves 

Captured in Survey

Source: PIKed, permanent NCOA observations (2019-2020) linked with ACS (2020) and CPS-ASEC (2020-2021) householders 

with unedited migration responses; CBDRB-FY22-CES005-018 and CBDRB-FY24-CES010-001. 
Discussion

• Growing gap between ACS and CPS-ASEC interstate migration rates 

rooted in:

• “Little differences”: ACS GQ population, in particular

• Declining share of administrative record moves reported by ACS and, to a 

greater extent, CPS-ASEC respondents

• Effect magnified in the CPS-ASEC by rising item non-response and allocation/imputation

• Contributes to a broader literature leveraging administrative records 

to assess survey misreporting

• Bee and Mitchell (2017): underreporting of retirement income in CPS-ASEC

• Meyer and Mittag (2015): underreporting of SNAP and TANF in CPS-ASEC

• Rothbaum (2015): increased underreporting of income in ACS and CPS-ASEC

22
Discussion (continued)

• What does this mean for migration research?

• Hyatt and colleagues (2018):

• “...researchers should use caution when using the CPS for studying how 

migration has changed in recent decades (pg. 2177).”

• Encourage use of IRS migration statistics in future work

• Keller and colleagues (2022):

• Curated Data Enterprise (CDE)

• Integrated survey and IRS records provide “an engine for better migration and 

mobility data”

23
Thank you!

Thomas.b.foster@census.gov

24
Supplemental Slides

25
IRS-Survey agreement by demographics

26

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Female Male <=24 25-44 45-64 65-84 85+ Hispanic NH

White

Alone

NH

Black

Alone

NH

AIAN

Alone

NH

Asian

Alone

NH

NHPI

Alone

NH SOR

Alone

NH

Multiple

Race

NH

Other

Sex Age Race and Ethnicity

Share of IRS Interstate Moves 

Captured in Surveys

ACS

CPS-ASEC

Sources: Author tabulations of migrants in IRS 1040s and 1099s linked with unedited CPS-ASEC migration responses and 

unedited, non-GQ, March ACS migration responses. CBDRB-FY24-CES010-001.
IRS-Survey agreement by household characteristics

27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Renter Owner Unmarried Married 0 1

Tenure Marital Status Householder

Share of IRS Interstate Moves 

Captured in Surveys

ACS

CPS-ASEC

Sources: Author tabulations of migrants in IRS 1040s and 1099s linked with unedited CPS-ASEC migration responses and 

unedited, non-GQ, March ACS migration responses. CBDRB-FY24-CES010-001.
IRS-Survey agreement by migration item edits

28

55.6

45.9

4.2

42.8

2.2 4.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

No Edits Allocated from some

other response

Hot Deck Imputation

Share of IRS Interstate Moves 

Captured in Surveys

ACS

CPS-ASEC

• ACS unedited migration 

responses more likely to 

capture IRS interstate moves

• As a result, ACS responses 

allocated from others in the 

household are more likely to 

accurately capture IRS 

moves

• Imputed migration 

responses capture IRS 

migration around 4% of the 

time

Sources: Author tabulations of migrants in IRS 1040s and 1099s linked with CPS-ASEC migration responses and non-GQ, 

March ACS migration responses. CBDRB-FY24-CES010-001.