How the Commodity Flow Survey 

Made its First 100 

Million...Shipments

Berin Linfors

U.S. Census Bureau

2023 FCSM Research and Policy Conference

Hyattsville, MD

October 24-26, 2023

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Disclaimers

Note: Any opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the 

author and do not reflect the views of the U.S. Census Bureau. 

The Census Bureau has reviewed this data product to ensure 

appropriate access, use, and disclosure avoidance protection of the 

confidential source data (Disclosure Review Board (DRB) approval 

number: Project No: P-7504831, DRB Approval Numbers: CBDRB-FY23-

ESMD002-033, CBDRB-FY21-ESMD002-031)

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Commodity Flow Survey 

Introduction

• Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) Overview

• Impetus for change

• 2021 CFS Pilot 

• CFS Changes for 2022

• Outcomes

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Commodity Flow Survey

Conducted through a partnership among...

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Commodity Flow Survey

• Data on the movement of goods within the United States

• Every 5 years (years ending in “2” and “7”) as part of the Economic 

Census (mandatory)

• 1993, 1997, 2002, 2007, 2012, and 2017

• 2022 CFS in the field April 2022 – June 2023

• Shipper-based survey (not carrier-based)

• Establishment-based (location)

• Main input to BTS’s Freight Analysis Framework 

• Data on hazardous materials packaging provided to PHMSA

Overview

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Commodity Flow Survey

• North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) coverage

• Mining (except oil and gas extraction)

• Manufacturing

• Wholesale

• Select Retail (electronic shopping, mail-order houses, fuel dealers)

• Newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing

• Selected auxiliary establishments (e.g., warehouses and company 

management offices) of multi-establishment companies

Overview Continued

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Commodity Flow Survey

• Shipment characteristics

• Value ($)

• Weight (pounds)

• Type of commodity (description)

• Temperature controlled (Y/N)

• Hazardous material number (UN/NA)

• Domestic destination (city, state, zip)

• Domestic mode of transportation

• Export destination (city, country)

• Export mode of transportation

Quarterly Questionnaire 

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Commodity Flow Survey

• Shipments by....

• Origin-Destination-Commodity-Mode

• Value, Tons, Ton-miles, Average miles per shipment

• Industry, Temperature control, Hazmat, Exports

• Data

• https://census.gov/cfs

Publication Data

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Impetus for Change

• Data user requests

• More localized geography estimates

• More commodity detail

• How can we publish more detailed data?

• Small Area Estimation

• Disaggregation/modelling

• Collect more data

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Impetus for Change

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Data collection constraints

• Respondent burden

• More data -> more burden... right?

Can we collect and publish more detailed data without 

increasing burden?
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2017 CFS – Promising signs

Feedback from 2017 CFS 

respondents

• Unnecessary burden 

/ pain points

Reported burden

• Analysis of 

reported burden

2017 CFS – Median burden vs. # of shipments provided

Figure: Median reported burden vs. number of tabulated shipments 

provided by a respondent 
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2017 CFS -- Burden Analysis

CFS form

mailed

Data 

received by 

Census

Extract shipment 

data from database

Sample 

shipment 

data

Find 

product 

codes

Enter data into 

online 

questionnaire

U.S. Census Bureau Survey Respondent

Legend

High burden

Medium

burden

Low burden
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Questionnaire 

mailed

Data 

received by 

Census

Extract shipment 

data from database

Sample 

shipment 

data

Find 

product 

codes

Streamlined 

collection 

instrument

U.S. Census Bureau Survey Respondent

Legend

High burden

Medium

burden

Low burden

2021 CFS Pilot
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* Data shown are fake/test data or publicly available product descriptions

2021 CFS Pilot – Machine Learning validation
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Data Collected

Summary

• Respondents who provided at 

least 1 shipment: 30

• Shipments: 16,000

• Locations: 150

• Avg shipments / location: 106 

• vs. max of 80 in 2017 CFS

Burden

By establishment

• 2017 CFS: 2.5 hours / location

• 2021 pilot: 30 minutes / location 

• 80% reduction

2021 CFS Pilot -- results

Data quality

Product code machine learning

• Confidently classify 95% of 

shipments
Commodity Flow Survey

• Respondents given the option to provide all shipments in 2022

• Machine learning now codes commodity descriptions

• Consolidated reporting

2022 Collection Changes (Pilot Tested)

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Commodity Flow Survey

• Collected about 106 million shipments (6.5 million 2017)

• Approximately same number of contributing establishments each 

cycle – 60,000

• Unique origin-destination ZIP pairs – 2022: 5.1 mil; 2017: 2.4

• 2x increase in O/D pairs

• Unique origin-destination-commodity-mode combinations:

• 13M in 2022, 3.1M in 2017

• 4x increase

2022 Results vs. 2017: Data

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Commodity Flow Survey

• Burden: 

• Among respondents who reported at least 1 shipment for a single location: 

no increase in burden (2.5 hours / establishment, same as 2017)

• Among respondents who reported at least 1 shipment for multiple 

locations: 15% reduction (2.1 hours / establishment) 

2022 Results vs. 2017: Burden

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Commodity Flow Survey

• Over 100 million shipments = 16x more data to use in estimates

• More publishable aggregate data cells

• More robust public use shipment file

• Asking for more shipments did not increase respondent burden

• Most burden in reporting first shipment. Additional shipments have little burden

• Companies with many CFS locations really liked consolidated reporting

• Removing paper option did not change # of locations who provided usable 

data

2022 Outcomes

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Commodity Flow Survey

• The CFS data release in 2025 will show the impact 106 million 

shipments have on the published estimates

• Shipment diversity?

• Future CFS?

• Data users gaining access though the Federal Statistical Research Data 

Centers (FSRDC)

• https://census.gov/fsrdc

Next Steps

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How the Commodity Flow Survey Made its 

First 100 Million...Shipments

Berin Linfors

Chief, Commodity Flow Branch

Economic Reimbursable Surveys Division

U.S. Census Bureau

berin.linfors@census.gov

Christian Moscardi 

Director of Data Science & Technology

Business Development Staff

Economic Reimbursable Surveys Division

U.S. Census Bureau

christian.l.moscardi@census.gov

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Contacts