Changes in EITC eligibility and 

participation, 2005-2009 

Maggie R. Jones 

Center for Administrative Records Research and 

Applications, U.S. Census Bureau 

2013 Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology (FCSM) Research Conference 

November 4, 2013 

Disclaimer: This presentation is released to inform interested parties of ongoing research and to 

encourage discussion of work in progress. The views expressed on technical, statistical, or 

methodological issues are those of the author and not necessarily those of the U.S. Census Bureau. 
 

 

 

 

 

Introduction 

• Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) eligibility and take-up is of great interest 

to policy-makers. 

– It is the largest cash-transfer program in U.S. 

– In 2009, EITC provided assistance to >25 million families. 

• Estimating year-by-year estimates of take-up vs. eligibility has been focus. 

• Year-by-year changes, especially in eligibility, receive less attention.

The most recent recession gives us an opportunity to assess program 

coverage during a downturn. 

• Eligibility may increase due to partial employment/loss of spouse 

earnings; may decrease due to full-year unemployment 

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Background 

• Assessment of eligibility/take-up requires 

– Estimate of number participating (via administrative data) 

– Estimate of those eligible (via survey data) 

• Focus on take-up 

– First estimates in 1990 (Scholz) using only Current Population 

Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC) and 

SIPP 

– Recent take-up estimates 

• Caputo (2011): between 53% and 64% for 1999-2005 using NLSY 

• Plueger (2009): ≈75% for 2005 using CPS ASEC linked to IRS data 

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Data 

• Census data, 2006-2010 

– CPS ASEC 

– Modeling files: CPS data modified to model eligibility by household 

• IRS data, 2005-2009 

– 1040s 

– EITC recipient file 

– 1040 filers receiving a notice of eligibility for EITC 

– W2s 

• Files merged using a Protected Information Key assigned in CARRA 

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Data 

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Expansions in program 

• Discussion of eligibility increases must take program 

expansion into account. 

– Married filers received increases between 2005 and 2009. 

– Those with 3+ children received higher credits beginning in 2009. 

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Year Expansion category Amount

2005 Married filing jointly $2,000

2006 Married filing jointly $2,000

2007 Married filing jointly $2,000

2008 Married filing jointly $3,000

2009 Married filing jointly $5,000

2009 Three child expansion 45% phase-in 

rate; $5657 max
EITC in 2009 

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Summary results 

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Participants Eligibles Rate/SE Participants Eligibles Rate/SE

2005 114,787 145,685 78.79 15,547 20,185 77.03

 (0.18) (0.51)

2006 117,960 146,849 80.33 15,642 20,062 77.97

 (0.19) (0.51)

2007 131,299 149,002 88.12 15,967 19,827 80.53

 (0.17) (0.52)

2008 121,776 150,486 80.92 16,678 20,992 79.45

 (2.03) (0.49)

2009 121,157 152,947 79.21 17,913 22,742 78.77

 (1.79) (0.47)

% change, 

05-09 5.40 4.86 14.14 11.91

Changes in 1040 and EITC eligiblity and take-up, 2005-2009

1040 EITC

Columns 2,3,5, and 6 in1000s; columns 4 and 7 in percents. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Individual characteristics 

Female 

Male 

White alone 

Black alone 

Other race 

Non-Hispanic 

Hispanic 

Less than HS 

H.S. graduate 

Some college 

Changes, eligibility 

All Expansion 

2005 2009 change 2005 2009 change % change, % change, 

Total Total 05-09 Total Total 05-09 expansion other 

20.16 19.72 -0.44 0.13 0.39 0.26 1.32 -3.51 

(0.30) (0.29) (0.02) (0.04) 

9.87 11.78 1.92 0.37 1.03 0.66 6.09 11.62 

(0.17) (0.18) (0.03) (0.06) 

12.14 13.47 1.33 0.27 0.78 0.51 3.99 6.42 

(0.16) (0.16) (0.03) (0.04) 

23.65 23.05 -0.60 0.31 0.74 0.43 1.86 -4.42 

(0.58) (0.52) (0.07) (0.10) 

13.29 13.85 0.56 0.30 0.98 0.68 5.01 -0.87 

(0.63) (0.62) (0.10) (0.20) 

12.15 12.81 0.66 0.22 0.66 0.44 3.50 1.79 

(0.16) (0.16) (0.02) (0.04) 

25.15 27.19 2.04 0.63 1.51 0.88 3.35 4.46 

(0.60) (0.49) (0.10) (0.12) 

20.03 22.22 2.19 0.31 1.12 0.81 3.84 6.54 

(0.50) (0.49) (0.06) (0.12) 

16.98 17.97 0.99 0.34 0.89 0.55 3.16 2.50 

(0.32) (0.30) (0.04) (0.06) 

15.11 16.17 1.07 0.34 0.82 0.48 3.05 3.78 

(0.30) (0.30) (0.05) (0.07) 

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BA/BS or more 5.38 6.55 1.18 0.13 0.47 0.34 5.68 14.04 

(0.21) (0.20) (0.03) (0.05) 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Changes, eligibility 

All Expansion 

2005 2009 change 2005 2009 change % change, % change, 

Family characteristics Total Total 05-09 Total Total 05-09 expansion other 

No children 5.70 5.95 0.25 0.09 0.23 0.14 2.42 1.89 

(0.14) (0.13) (0.02) (0.03) 

One child 32.67 36.23 3.56 0.55 1.38 0.84 2.43 7.91 

(0.54) (0.60) (0.07) (0.12) 

More than one child 30.33 35.59 5.26 0.79 2.69 1.90 5.75 10.20 

(0.48) (0.46) (0.09) (0.17) 

Single filer 16.31 15.98 -0.33 (NA) 0.03 0.03 (NA) -2.27 

(0.23) (0.22) (0.01) 

Joint filer 10.38 13.19 2.80 0.67 1.93 1.25 10.69 13.12 

(0.22) (0.21) (0.22) (0.09) 

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Changes, take-up 

2005 2009 change % 

Individual characteristics Total Total 05-09 change 

Female 80.81 81.75 0.94 1.16 

(0.64) (0.60) 

Male 72.13 75.59 3.46 4.69 

(0.83) (0.69) 

White alone 76.85 77.76 0.91 1.17 

(0.63) (0.57) 

Black alone 78.29 81.91 3.63 4.53 

(1.15) (0.98) 

Other race 74.17 81.58 7.42 9.52 

(2.39) (1.69) 

Non-Hispanic 75.63 81.09 5.46 6.97 

(0.60) (0.48) 

Hispanic 81.51 72.21 -9.30 -12.10 

(0.93) (1.05) 

Less than HS 79.51 72.16 -7.35 -9.69 

(1.11) (1.14) 

H.S. graduate 78.57 81.44 2.87 3.59 

(0.80) (0.74) 

Some college 77.52 82.11 4.59 5.75 

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(0.92) (0.76) 

BA/BS or more 64.60 73.47 8.87 12.85 

(1.99) (1.52) 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Changes, take-up 

Family characteristics 

2005 

Total 

2009 

Total 

change 

05-09 

% 

change 

No children 56.10 65.23 9.13 15.05 

(1.21) (1.15) 

One child 86.15 85.33 -0.82 -0.96 

(0.70) (0.67) 

More than one child 84.33 82.94 -1.39 -1.66 

(0.71) (0.66) 

Single filer 75.45 78.39 2.93 3.81 

(0.69) (0.56) 

Joint filer 80.52 79.47 -1.04 -1.30 

(0.79) (0.75) 

Phase-in 64.15 68.23 4.08 6.16 

(1.06) (0.95) 

Plateau 83.11 81.31 -1.80 -2.19 

(1.40) (1.11) 

Phase-out 83.13 84.39 1.26 1.50 

(0.64) (0.53) 

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Fixed effects models 

• Question: What was the eligibility/take-up 

experience for groups over time? 

– Fixed-effects models with time-specific characteristic 

indicators 

– Includes controls for local labor market 

Yist is either eligibility or take-up; zst are labor market variables by state and time; xist 

are demographic characteristics; T are time fixed effects; s are state fixed effects; and 

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the X × T terms are interactions between characteristics and time.
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Conclusion 

• Overall eligibility increased over the recession. 

– Local economic conditions influenced eligibility. 

– Certain groups experienced eligibility changes that may 

have been co-determined by their labor-market 

experience. 

• Overall take-up, contingent on eligibility, remained 

flat (between 77% and 78%). 

– Groups that experienced eligibility increases did not 

necessarily participate at higher rates. 

– Participation in other programs targeted to workers 

increased take-up. 

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