WHAT MOST AFFECTS 

THE PROBABILITY OF 

RECEIVING PUBLIC 

ASSISTANCE?

College of Liberal Arts, School of Public Policy

Examining the Effect of Family Background and Educational Attainment on Receiving Public 

Assistance with Multivariate Regression Analysis

“Great Expectations: New Directions and Innovations 

for Sustainable Federal Statistics”

October 25-27, 2022

Patricia I. Vargas, Sociology

Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology 

(FCSM) 2022 Research & Policy Conference
About the Presenter

INTRODUCTION VARGAS 1

Patricia I. Vargas

Bachelor of Science in Sociology

SFHS Tiger

UCLA Bruin

OSU Beaver

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Overview

INTRODUCTION VARGAS 2

BACKGROUND

METHODS

RESULTS

CONCLUSIONS & IMPLICATIONS

Q&A
BACKGROUND

College of Liberal Arts, School of Public Policy
What is poverty?

BACKGROUND VARGAS 4

SPM

1964 2009

OPM

A state of being poor, being unable to meet basic needs (water, food, clothes, 

shelter, and essential services inclusive of sanitation, health, and education)

2021
BACKGROUND VARGAS 5
METHODS

College of Liberal Arts, School of Public Policy
Quantitative analysis

“This project grew from examining the effect of 

two variables on household poverty status with 

a Chi-square analysis in SPSS using nationally 

representative data from a panel study 

sponsored by the U.S. Census Bureau to 

examining the effect of 18 variables on 

receiving public assistance, a proxy for poverty, 

with multivariate regression analysis in STATA 

using nationally representative data from a 

panel study sponsored by the National Center 

for Education Statistics (NCES).”

METHODS VARGAS 7
Proxying poverty

METHODS VARGAS 8

Receiving Public Assistance
METHODS VARGAS 9

18 

IVs

Receiving public 

assistance

Demographic details, 

family background, 

and school 

background

One 

DV

Completing a multivariate regression analysis
Nationally representative data

“The data for this project comes from the 

2002 and 2012 Education Longitudinal Study 

(ELS), a federal panel study sponsored by the 

National Center for Education Statistics 

(NCES). The 2002 ELS consists of a nationally 

representative sample of ‘10th graders in 

2002’ (NCES 2021). ‘Surveys of students, 

their parents, math and English teachers, 

and school administrators’ are collected and 

‘students [are] followed throughout [their] 

secondary and postsecondary years’ (NCES 

2021).”

METHODS VARGAS 10
Sub-sample

“Because this project focused on 

the joint effect of family background 

and educational attainment on 

receiving public assistance, the third 

follow-up data collection from 

ELS:2012 was used, resulting in a 

sub-sample of 4,150 respondents.”

METHODS VARGAS 11

N=4,150
Dependent variable tested

“Poverty was proxied with receiving public assistance and coded as a 

nominal variable using the following binary: 1=yes and 0=no.”

METHODS VARGAS 12

Response retrieved from the third follow-up questionnaire, 

where respondents were asked: 

“During 2011, did [you/you or your spouse/you or your partner] receive any of the 

following benefits: Supplemental Security Income (SSI); SNAP (the Food Stamp 

Program); TANF (the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Program); the Free 

and Reduced-Price School Lunch Program; or WIC (the Special Supplemental 

Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children)?” 
Independent variables tested

VARGAS 13

Family 

Background

• Sex

• Race 

• Native English speaker

• Educational attainment

• Student federal loan 

debt

• Marital status

• Number of dependents

• Employment status

• Recent unemployment

Demographic 

Details

• School type

• School urbanicity

• School free-lunch rate

• School college-going 

rate

• Family composition

• Number of in-home 

siblings

• Parents’ educational 

attainment

• Parents’ income

• Parents’ English 

language fluency

School 

Background

METHODS
RESULTS

College of Liberal Arts, School of Public Policy
What predicts receiving public 

assistance?

RESULTS VARGAS 15

FINDING #1 .

A majority of our variables!

(p<0.001 level)

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Variation

“Ten variables were found to have a 

statistically significant effect on the 

probability of receiving public 

assistance...”

RESULTS VARGAS 16

36%

“Roughly 36% of the variation in 

receiving public assistance is explained 

by the 18 independent variables 

tested...”
Factor Change in Predictive Probabilities of 

Receiving Public Assistance

1.57

-0.75

1.15

3.55

1.15

2.50

-0.93 -0.90 -0.92 -0.89

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

17

* All variables statistically significant at the p<0.001 level except for marital status (p=0.019), parents’ educational attainment (p=0.003), and school college-going 

rate (p=0.013) that are statistically significant at the p<0.05 level.

Source: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Education Longitudinal Study (ELS), 2002 and 2012.

VARGAS, PATRICIA I.
What is the impact of having 

dependents (age <18)?

RESULTS VARGAS 18

FINDING #2 .

0.23

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0.79
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WITH JOB

0.11

What is the impact of experiencing 

unemployment (at least once in the past three 

years)?

RESULTS VARGAS 19

FINDING #3 .

NEED JOB

0.23
What is the impact of parents’ 

educational attainment?

RESULTS VARGAS 20

FINDING #4 .

0.23 0.14

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CONCLUSIONS & 

IMPLICATIONS

College of Liberal Arts, School of Public Policy
A key take

-away

“Combining the top three predictors 

found to significantly increase the 

probability of receiving public assistance 

at the 0.001 level...results highlight 

single mothers who have .experienced 

recent unemployment (within the past 

three years) as one of the most 

vulnerable groups in the United States, 

gravely needing public assistance to 

meet basic needs.”

VARGAS 22

NEED JOB

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CONCLUSIONS & IMPLICATIONS
Why does this matter?

CONCLUSIONS & IMPLICATIONS VARGAS 23

We can project 

societal needs

With COVID-19, unemployment skyrocketed in 2020. 

However, with fine-tuned methodologies and metrics 

from nationally representative datasets like those 

from the U.S. Census Bureau and the National Center 

for Education Statistics, analyses can help assess the 

impact of global challenges like COVID-19 to ensure a 

thriving society.
Implications

VARGAS 24

Recent unemployment stands 

as the second strongest 

predictor of receiving public 

assistance. The probability of 

receiving public assistance 

more than doubles if someone 

has experienced 

unemployment even just once 

in the past three years. 

CONCLUSIONS & IMPLICATIONS
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

College of Liberal Arts, School of Public Policy
Thank you to...

• Dr. Shelley Nelson for her mentorship during the Spring 2020 term. I 

am grateful for the time spent introducing me to quantitative analyses 

and encouraging me to pursue my passions within research.

• Dr. Brian Fuller for creating a welcoming learning environment in a 

former course where this project began during the Winter 2020 term.

• FCSM 2022 for organizing this year’s three-day conference.

• Friends, family, and my former educators for sharing words of 

encouragement throughout my academic and life journey.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS VARGAS 26
Q&A

College of Liberal Arts, School of Public Policy
Q&A

VARGAS 28

THANK YOU

for listening and engaging

WWW.LINKEDIN.COM/IN/PATTYVARGAS/ 
REFERENCES

College of Liberal Arts, School of Public Policy
References

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School Sophomore Class of 2002. National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Institute of Education Sciences, NCES 2008-308. Washington, DC: U.S. 

Department of Education. 1-55. Retrieved November 10, 2021 (https://nces.ed.gov/pubs2008/2008308.pdf). 

• Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2020. “Unemployment rate rises to record high 14.7 percent in April 2020.” Washington, DC: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

Retrieved November 10, 2021 (https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2020/mobile/unemployment-rate-rises-to- record-high-14-point-7-percent-in-april2020.htm). 

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Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. 1-37. Retrieved November 10, 2021 

(https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2021/demo/p60- 275.pdf). 

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Government Printing Office. 1-32. Retrieved November 10, 2021 

(https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/demo/p60- 272.pdf). 

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Government Printing Office. 1-33. Retrieved November 10, 2021 

(https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2019/demo/p60- 268.pdf). 

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Bureau. Retrieved November 10, 2021 (https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random- samplings/2018/09/what_is_the_suppleme.html).

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REFERENCES VARGAS 30
References (cont’d)

• Long, Heather, and Andrew Van Dam. 2020. “U.S. unemployment rate soars to 14.7 percent, the worst since the Depression era.” Washington Post, 

May 08. Retrieved November 10, 2021 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/08/april- 2020-jobs-report/). 

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10 Years Later).” Washington DC: U.S. Department of Education. Retrieved October 10, 2022 

(https://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2014363). 

• National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). 2014. “Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS:2002).” Washington DC: U.S. Department of 

Education. Retrieved November 10, 2021 (https://nces.ed.gov/surveys/els2002/). 

• Semega, Jessica et al. 2019. Income and Poverty in the United States: 2018. U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, P60-266(RV). 

Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. 1-77. Retrieved November 10, 2021 

(https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2019/demo/p60- 266.pdf). 

• Short, Kathleen. 2015. The Supplemental Poverty Measure: 2014. U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, P60-254. Washington, DC: U.S. 

Government Printing Office. 1-22. Retrieved November 10, 2021 

(https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2015/demo/p60- 254.pdf). 

• Shrider, Emily A. et al. 2021. Income and Poverty in the United States: 2020. U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, P60-273. Washington, 

DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. 1-83. Retrieved November 10, 2021 

(https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2021/demo/p60- 273.pdf). 

• U.S. Census Bureau. 2021a. “Improvements to the Census Bureau’s Supplemental Poverty Measure for 2021.” Washington DC: U.S. Census Bureau. 

Retrieved November 10, 2021 (https://www.census.gov/topics/income-poverty/supplemental- poverty-measure/library/workingpapers/topics/potential-changes.html). 

• U.S. Census Bureau. 2021b. “About Public Assistance.” Washington DC: U.S. Census Bureau. Retrieved November 10, 2021 

(https://www.census.gov/topics/income- poverty/public-assistance/about.html). 

• U.S. Census Bureau. 2017. “Measuring America: How the U.S. Census Bureau Measures Poverty.” Washington DC: U.S. Census Bureau. Retrieved 

November 10, 2021 (https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2017/demo/poverty_measure- how.html). 

REFERENCES VARGAS 31