Farm Credit Administration 1 3/26/2018

Economics Report

Farm Credit Administration

Office of Regulatory Policy

Agricultural and Economic PolicyTeam

March 26, 2018

Summary

U.S. agricultural exports totaled

$138.4 billion in 2017. The top three

markets were Canada ($20.5 billion),

China ($19.6 billion), and Mexico

($18.6 billion). With a combined

export value for the three countries

equal to 16 percent of U.S. cash

receipts (farm value), demand in

these markets directly affects U.S.

farm income.

Much of agricultural trade news in

recent months involves these three 

countries. The agricultural

community continues to express 

significant concerns over potential

trade policy changes that could 

dampen U.S. exports or weaken ties 

with major U.S. markets.

China is a major market for U.S.

agricultural products because each

year it buys more than $10 billion of

U.S. soybeans. China accounts for

more than one-half of total U.S. 

soybean exports. Canada is a more 

diversified market than China

because no single product dominates 

agricultural exports to Canada.

Another difference is the consumerready nature of export flows—the top

categories are prepared food, fresh

vegetables, fresh fruit, and snack

foods. For Mexico, the distinctive

feature is that the United States

ships a wide variety of bulk

commodities (corn, soybeans, and 

wheat) and animal products (pork

and dairy). In 2017, Mexico

accounted for half of U.S. corn

exports and between one-fifth to 

one-quarter of U.S. pork, dairy, and 

poultry exports. 

Author 

Dennis A. Shields, Senior Economist, 

(703) 883-4056

Major U.S. Agricultural Export 

Markets: China, Canada, and Mexico

Much of the recent agricultural trade news involves China and the North 

American Free Trade Agreement countries of Canada and Mexico. These 

countries are the top three markets for U.S. agricultural products, 

accounting for a combined 42 percent of total agricultural exports. Each 

market received about $20 billion in products in 2017 (figure 1). 

The agricultural community continues to express significant concerns over 

potential trade policy changes that could dampen U.S. agricultural exports 

or weaken ties with major U.S. markets. Potential impacts depend on the 

commodities exported to these markets, their shares of overall exports, 

and exports relative to U.S. production (as measured by cash receipts). 

This report provides a graphical profile of U.S. exports to the top three 

markets using data from USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service and Economic 

Research Service.

Figure 1. Top U.S. agricultural exports markets are China, Canada

and Mexico

Source: FCA-ORP using USDA/FAS data,

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/Gats/ExpressQuery1.aspx. 

China, 

$19.6

Canada, 

$20.5

Mexico, 

$18.6

Other, 

$79.7

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

China Canada Mexico Other World

$ bil.

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2017 = 

$138.4 billion
Farm Credit Administration 2 3/26/2018

China buys mostly soybeans from the United States

China is a major market for U.S. agricultural products because each year it buys more than $10 billion 

of U.S. soybeans. China’s purchases represent more than one-half of total U.S. soybean exports. All 

other commodities categories are $1 billion or less. Other major commodities include cotton, hides and 

skins, sorghum, pork, and dairy products. For each of these commodities, China accounts for 10 

percent or more of total U.S. exports.

Relative to a measure of U.S. farm production, the agricultural export value to China is equal to 5 

percent of U.S. cash receipts (farm value). For individual commodities, the export-cash receipt ratio 

for soybeans is 29 percent, while the ratio is 51 percent for sorghum, making China a particularly 

important market for these crops.

Figure 2. U.S. agricultural exports to China in calendar 2017

All Soybeans Cotton

Hides 

& 

Skins

Coarse Grains –

sorghum 

(excludes corn)

Pork Dairy Wheat Hay

China’s share 

of U.S. exports

14% 57% 17% 50% 78% 10% 11% 6% 27%

U.S. exports to 

China / U.S. 

farm receipts

5% 29% 22%

Not 

avail.

51% 4% 2% 4% 5%

Source: FCA-ORP using USDA/FAS data for 2017 exports and USDA/ERS data for 2016 cash receipts.

12.4

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.4

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Soybeans

Cotton

Hides & Skins

Coarse Grains (excl. corn)

Pork & Pork Products

Dairy Products

Other Intermed. Prod.

Wheat

Hay

Other Feeds/Fodders

Tree Nuts

Fresh Fruit

Tobacco

Corn

Prepared Food

Processed Fruit

Planting Seeds

Processed Vegetables

Wine & Beer

Distillers Grains

Other

$ bil.
Farm Credit Administration 3 3/26/2018

Canada buys prepared foods and many other U.S. agricultural products 

Canada is a much more diversified market than China because no single product dominates U.S. 

agricultural exports to Canada. Another difference is the consumer-ready nature of export flows. The 

top categories are prepared food, fresh vegetables, fresh fruit, snack foods, and non-alcoholic 

beverages (excluding juices). The United States is highly dependent on exports to Canada, which in 

2017 accounted for one-third to one-half of total U.S. exports of its top commodities.

Relative to a measure of U.S. farm production, the agricultural export value to Canada is equal to 6 

percent of U.S. cash receipts. The export-cash receipt ratio for pork is 4 percent, while the ratio is 1

percent for beef.

Figure 3. U.S. agricultural exports to Canada in calendar 2017

All Prepared 

Food

Fresh 

Vegetables

Fresh 

Fruit

Snack 

Foods

NonAlcoholic 

Beverages

Beef & 

Beef 

Products

Pork & Pork 

Products

Canada’s share of 

U.S. exports

15% 32% 75% 34% 51% 54% 11% 12%

U.S. exports to 

Canada / U.S. farm 

receipts

6%

Not 

avail.

Not avail.

Not 

avail.

Not 

avail.

Not avail. 1% 4%

Source: FCA-ORP using USDA/FAS data for 2017 exports and USDA/ERS data for 2016 cash receipts.

1.9

1.9

1.6

1.3

1.2

1.1

0.8

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.4

3.2

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

Prepared Food

Fresh Vegetables

Fresh Fruit

Snack Foods

Other Intermediate Products

Non-Alcoholic Bev. (excl. juices)

Beef & Beef Products

Pork & Pork Products

Chocolate & Cocoa Products

Condiments & Sauces

Tree Nuts

Dog & Cat Food

Dairy Products

Processed Vegetables

Wine & Beer

Processed Fruit

Poultry Meat & Prods. (excl. eggs)

Breakfast Cereals

Fruit & Vegetable Juices

Sugar, Sweeteners, Bev. Bases

Other

$ bil.
Farm Credit Administration 4 3/26/2018

Mexico buys U.S. corn, soybeans, pork, and dairy products

Compared with China and Canada, the distinctive feature of trade with Mexico is that the United 

States ships a wide variety of bulk commodities (corn, soybeans, and wheat) and animal products 

(pork, dairy, beef, and poultry). U.S. exports of each of these products totaled $0.9 billion or more in 

2017. Mexico is major U.S. market for these products, accounting for nearly a third of U.S. corn 

exports and between one-fifth to one-quarter of pork, dairy, and poultry exports.

Relative to a measure of U.S. farm production, the agricultural export value to Mexico is equal to 5 

percent of U.S. cash receipts. The export-cash receipt ratio is 10 percent for wheat, 8 percent for 

pork, and 6 percent for corn.

Figure 4. U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico in calendar 2017

All Corn Soybeans

Pork & 

Pork 

Products

Dairy 

Products

Beef & 

Beef 

Products

Poultry 

Meat

Wheat

Mexico’s share 

of U.S. exports

13% 29% 7% 23% 24% 13% 22% 14%

U.S. exports to 

Mexico / U.S. 

farm receipts

5% 6% 4% 8% 4% 2% 3% 10%

Source: FCA-ORP using USDA/FAS data for 2017 exports and USDA/ERS data for 2016 cash receipts.

2.6

1.6

1.5

1.3

1.1

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.2

2.8

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

Corn

Soybeans

Pork & Pork Products

Dairy Products

Other Intermediate Products

Beef & Beef Products

Poultry Meat & Prods. (excl. eggs)

Wheat

Prepared Food

Sugar, Sweeteners, Bev. Bases

Soybean Meal

Fresh Fruit

Cotton

Distillers Grains

Processed Vegetables

Snack Foods

Rice

Planting Seeds

Tree Nuts

Chocolate & Cocoa Products

Other

$ bil.