Improving Equality of Opportunity in America

New Insights from Big Data

John N. Friedman

Brown University

Twitter: @OppInsights
50

60

70

80

90

100

Pct. of Children Earning more than their Parents

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980

Child's Year of Birth

The Fading American Dream

Percent of Children Earning More than Their Parents, by Year of Birth

Source: Chetty, Grusky, Hell, Hendren, Manduca, Narang 2017
Demonstrate how one can use big data to study upward 

mobility in America

Analyze a broad range of interventions, following 

children into adulthood

Use administrative and survey records from three 

federal agencies

How Can We Restore the American Dream?
Data Sources
Note: Blue = More Upward Mobility, Red = Less Upward Mobility

Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Jones, Porter 2018

The Geography of Upward Mobility in the United States

Average Income at Age 35 for Children whose Parents Earned $27,000 (25th percentile)

<$20k $33k >$55k

Charlotte 

$26.3k

 Washington DC 

$33.9k

San Francisco

Bay Area

$37.2k

Seattle 

$35.2k

Salt Lake 

City $37.2k

Los Angeles 

$34.3k

New York City 

$35.4k

Boston

$36.8k

Cincinnati 

$28.3k

Dubuque

$45.5k Cleveland 

$29.4k
New York

Los Angeles

Chicago

Philadelphia Dallas

Miami

Washington

Houston

Detroit

Boston

Atlanta

San Francisco

Riverside

Seattle

Minneapolis

San Diego

Baltimore

Pittsburgh

Tampa

Denver

Cleveland

Cincinnati

Portland

Kansas City

Sacramento

Charlotte

San Jose

San Antonio

Phoenix

St. Louis

$26K

$30K

$34K

$38K

0 20 40 60

Average Income at Age 35 of Children who Grew up in Low-Income Families

Job Growth Rate (%) from 1990-2010

High mobility, 

low growth

Low mobility, 

high growth

High mobility, 

high growth

Low mobility, 

low growth

Upward Mobility vs. Job Growth in the 30 Largest Metro Areas
Note: Blue = More Upward Mobility, Red = Less Upward Mobility

Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Jones, Porter 2018

The Geography of Upward Mobility in the United States

Average Income at Age 35 for Children whose Parents Earned $27,000 (25th percentile)

<$20k $33k >$55k

Charlotte 

$26.3k

 Washington DC 

$33.9k

San Francisco

Bay Area

$37.2k

Seattle 

$35.2k

Salt Lake 

City $37.2k

Los Angeles 

$34.3k

New York City 

$35.4k

Boston

$36.8k

Cincinnati 

$28.3k

Dubuque

$45.5k Cleveland 

$29.4k
Black Men White Men

Boston

$25k

Charlotte

$18k

Charlotte

$25k

Newark

$22k

Seattle

$21k

$17k $25k $35k

Newark

$33k

Note: Blue = More Upward Mobility, Red = Less Upward Mobility

Source: Chetty, Hendren, Jones, Porter 2018

Boston

$31k

Seattle

$29k

Two Americas: The Geography of Upward Mobility For Black vs. White Men

Average Income at Age 35 For Men Whose Parents Earned $27,000 (25th percentile) 

Cleveland

$28k

Cincinnati

$25k

Cleveland

$17k

Cincinnati

$17k
Boston

$27k

Charlotte

$21k

Charlotte

$19k

Newark

$25k

Seattle

$22k

$16k $20k $26k

Newark

$28k

Note: Blue = More Upward Mobility, Red = Less Upward Mobility

Source: Chetty, Hendren, Jones, Porter 2018

Boston

$26k

Seattle

$21k

The Geography of Upward Mobility For Black vs. White Women

Average Income at Age 35 For Women Whose Parents Earned $27,000 (25th percentile) 

Cleveland

$21k

Cincinnati

$19k

Cleveland

$21k

Cincinnati

$21k

Black Women White Women
Source: Chetty, Hendren, Jones, Porter 2018; New York Times 2018

Black men

White men

Income Mobility for Black vs. White Men Raised in High-Income Families
www.opportunityatlas.org

www.opportunityatlas.org


$17K
Dumont Avenue
$26K

Dumont Avenue
$26K

Dumont Avenue
$26K

Dumont Avenue




2 10 20 28

Age of Child when Parents Move

Income Gain from Moving to a Better Neighborhood

By Child’s Age at Move

$17.0K 

$20.3K 

$23.7K 

$27.0K 

Average Income at Age 35

Brownsville

Nehemiah 

Houses

Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Jones, Porter 2018
2 10 20 28

Age of Child when Parents Move

Move at age 2 from Brownsville to the Nehemiah Houses

! average earnings of $25,000

Income Gain from Moving to a Better Neighborhood

By Child’s Age at Move

$17.0K 

$20.3K 

$23.7K 

$27.0K 

Average Income at Age 35

Brownsville

Nehemiah 

Houses

Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Jones, Porter 2018
2 10 20 28

Age of Child when Parents Move

Income Gain from Moving to a Better Neighborhood

By Child’s Age at Move

$17.0K 

$20.3K 

$23.7K 

$27.0K 

Average Income at Age 35

Brownsville

Nehemiah 

Houses

Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Jones, Porter 2018
2 10 20 28

Age of Child when Parents Move

Income Gain from Moving to a Better Neighborhood

By Child’s Age at Move

$17.0K 

$20.3K 

$23.7K 

$27.0K 

Average Income at Age 35

Brownsville

Nehemiah 

Houses

Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Jones, Porter 2018
Place-Based

Investments

Reducing 

Segregation

Improving Higher 

Education

From Research to Policy: Three Pillars

Help Low-Income 

Families Move to 

High-Opportunity Areas

Increase Upward Mobility 

in Low-Opportunity Areas

Amplify Impacts of 

Colleges on Mobility
Help Low-Income 

Families Move to 

High-Opportunity Areas

Increase Upward Mobility 

in Low-Opportunity Areas

Amplify Impacts of 

Colleges on Mobility

Place-Based

Investments

Improving Higher 

Education

Reducing 

Segregation

From Research to Policy: Three Pillars
25 most common tracts 

where voucher holders 

lived in 2015-17

> 60 ($55k)

48 ($39k)

< 30 ($20k)

Percentile Rank 

in Adulthood

Source: Chetty, Friedman, 

Hendren, Jones, Porter (2018)

Is Affordable Housing in Seattle Maximizing Opportunities for Upward Mobility?

Most Common Current Locations of Families Receiving Housing Vouchers in Seattle
Randomized trial to help families with 

housing vouchers move to highopportunity neighborhoods

Creating Moves to Opportunity 

in Seattle

Source: Bergman, Chetty, DeLuca, Hendren, Katz, Palmer (2019) 
14.3%

54.3%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Percent of Households Who Have Moved

to High Opportunity Areas

Control Treatment

Difference: 40.0 pp

 SE: (5.2)

Effect of CMTO on Fraction of Families who Moved to High-Opportunity Areas

Source: Bergman, Chetty, DeLuca, Hendren, Katz, Palmer (2019) 
Increase Upward Mobility 

in Low-Opportunity Areas

Place-Based

Investments

Amplify Impacts of 

Colleges on Mobility

Reducing 

Segregation

Help Low-Income 

Families Move to 

High-Opportunity Areas

Improving Higher 

Education

From Research to Policy: Three Pillars
< $16k $34k > $56k

The Geography of Opportunity in Charlotte
A Life-Course Approach to Place-Based Investment
Evidence on Place-Based Policies: The American Opportunity Study

▪ American Opportunity Study: New project to analyze impacts of 

place-based policies (currently in fundraising phase)

▪ Build a longitudinal dataset covering all Americans from 1950 to 

present by digitizing and linking tax and Census records

▪ Use these data to study the impacts of place-based interventions on 

prior residents

▪ What types of interventions improve prior residents’ outcomes 

rather than simply displacing them?
Place-Based

Investments

Reducing 

Segregation

Help Low-Income 

Families Move to 

High-Opportunity Areas

Increase Upward Mobility 

in Low-Opportunity Areas

Amplify Impacts of 

Colleges on Mobility

Improving

Higher Education

From Research to Policy: Three Pillars
Which Colleges and Universities Best Promote Upward Mobility?

Source: Bell, Chetty, Jaravel, Petkova, van Reenen (QJE 2018)
Mobility Report Cards: Montgomery College

Success Rate: Fraction of 

Students who Reach Top Fifth from

Parents in Bottom Fifth = 22.8%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

< $25K 25 - 47K 47 - 74K 74 - 111K > $111K

Parent Income Quintile

Percent of Students

Access: Fraction of Parents from 

Bottom Fifth = 13.3%

Source: Chetty, Friedman, Saez, Turner, and Yagan (2020) 
Collegiate Leaders in Increasing Mobility

Partnership between Opportunity Insights 

and 400 colleges across the U.S. that 

seeks to help colleges:

▪ Increase access to qualified lowincome students

▪ Maximize the success of students 

from disadvantaged backgrounds
From Jasmine, 7 years old, whose family moved 

to a high-opportunity area in Seattle

in the Creating Moves to Opportunity study

Web: www.opportunityinsights.org

Twitter: @OppInsights

Email: info@opportunityinsights.org
Lower Poverty 

Rates

$

$

$

More stable family 

structure

Greater social 

capital

Better school 

quality

Characteristics of High-Mobility Neighborhoods
0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Effect of Poverty Rate x Miles Away

Relative to Poverty Rate in Own Block

0 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4

Distance (Miles)

How Big Is a “Neighborhood”?

Spatial Decay in Association Between Poverty Rates and Upward Mobility

Poverty rates more than 0.6 miles away from a 

block have no impact on upward mobility there

Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Jones, Porter 2018
Measure a college’s mobility rate (MR) as the fraction 

of its students who both come from bottom fifth and 

end up in top fifth

Mobility rate equals access times success rate:

 

Mobility Rates

Mobility Rate = Access x Success Rate

3.0 % = 13.3% x 22.8%

At Montgomery CC
Exemplary Community Colleges in America for Upward Mobility

Fraction of Bottom-to-Top Success Stories

7.1%

6.9%

6.0%

3.8%

3.5%

3.1%

3.0%

4.6%

4.3%

1.9%

1.9%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

Avg. College in the U.S.

New Mexico Junior College (NM)

Miami Dade Community College (FL)

Montgomery Community College (MD)

Bergen Community College (NJ)

Houston Community College (TX)

CUNY Community Colleges (NY)

South Texas College (TX)

Glendale Community College (CA)

Capital Area Technical College (LA)

2.5% NOVA Community College (VA)

Avg. Community College in the U.S. 1.7%

Source: Chetty, Friedman, Saez, Turner, and Yagan (2020)