❚r❛♥s♣❛r❡♥t ❛♥❞ ❘❡♣r♦❞✉❝✐❜❧❡ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ✐♥

❆❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❛❧ ❖✣❝✐❛❧ ❙t❛t✐st✐❝s

❆♥❞r❡❡❛ ▲✳ ❊r❝✐✉❧❡s❝✉

◆❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ■♥st✐t✉t❡ ♦❢ ❙t❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ❙❝✐❡♥❝❡s

❯❙❉❆ ◆❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❆❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❛❧ ❙t❛t✐st✐❝s ❙❡r✈✐❝❡

●♦✈❡r♥♠❡♥t ❆❞✈❛♥❝❡s ✐♥ ❙t❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ Pr♦❣r❛♠♠✐♥❣✦ ❲♦r❦s❤♦♣

❖❝t♦❜❡r ✷✹✱ ✷✵✶✽

●❆❙P✦ ✷✵✶✽

❚r❛♥s♣❛r❡♥t ❛♥❞ ❘❡♣r♦❞✉❝✐❜❧❡ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ✶
❉✐s❝❧❛✐♠❡r

❚❤❡ ❋✐♥❞✐♥❣s ❛♥❞ ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s ✐♥ ❚❤✐s Pr❡❧✐♠✐♥❛r2 Pr❡s❡♥t❛t✐♦♥

❍❛✈❡ ◆♦t ❇❡❡♥ ❋♦r♠❛❧❧2 ❉✐ss❡♠✐♥❛t❡❞ ❜2 t❤❡ ❯✳❙✳ ❉❡♣❛rt♠❡♥t

♦❢ ❆❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❡ ❛♥❞ ❙❤♦✉❧❞ ◆♦t ❇❡ ❈♦♥str✉❡❞ t♦ ❘❡♣r❡s❡♥t ❆♥2

❆❣❡♥❝2 ❉❡t❡r♠✐♥❛t✐♦♥ ♦r P♦❧✐❝2✳

●❆❙P✦ ✷✵✶✽

❚r❛♥s♣❛r❡♥t ❛♥❞ ❘❡♣r♦❞✉❝✐❜❧❡ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ✷
❯❙❉❆ ◆❆❙❙ ❖✣❝✐❛❧ ❙t❛t✐st✐❝s❀ −✺✵✵ ❘❡♣♦rts ❆♥♥✉❛❧❧2

❆❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❛❧ ▲❛❜♦r ❙✉r✈❡2

◮ ❚✐♠❡✿ ❜✐❛♥♥✉❛❧ ♦✣❝✐❛❧ st❛t✐st✐❝s ❢♦r ❢♦✉r q✉❛rt❡rs

◮ ▼❛2 ✭❆♣r✐❧ ❛♥❞ ❏❛♥✉❛r2✮ ❛♥❞ ◆♦✈❡♠❜❡r ✭❖❝t♦❜❡r ❛♥❞ ❏✉❧2✮

◮ ◗✉❛♥t✐t✐❡s✿ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ✇♦r❦❡rs✱ ❤♦✉rs✱ ✇❛❣❡ r❛t❡

◮ ♣♦✐♥t ❡st✐♠❛t❡s ♦♥❧2 ✭♥♦ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ♦❢ ✉♥❝❡rt❛✐♥t2 ❝✉rr❡♥t❧2∗

✮

◮ ❉♦♠❛✐♥s✿ r❡❣✐♦♥∗∗

✱ ✇♦r❦❡r✲t2♣❡✱ ❢❛r♠✲t2♣❡✱ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❝❧❛ss✱ ✰

◮ ❧❛r❣❡ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ✜♥❡ ❞♦♠❛✐♥s ✭❝r♦ss t❛❜✉❧❛t✐♦♥s✮

✯q✉❛❧✐t2 ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ❛r❡ ♣✉❜❧✐s❤❡❞ ❢♦r s♦♠❡ s✉r✈❡2 ❡st✐♠❛t❡s

✯✯❣r♦✉♣ ♦❢ ♥❡✐❣❤❜♦r✐♥❣ st❛t❡s✱ ✇✐t❤✐♥ t❤❡ ♥❛t✐♦♥

❆❝❦♥♦✇❧❡❞❣❡♠❡♥ts✿ ◆❆❙❙ ❘❉❉✱ ❙❉✱ ▼❉

●❆❙P✦ ✷✵✶✽

❚r❛♥s♣❛r❡♥t ❛♥❞ ❘❡♣r♦❞✉❝✐❜❧❡ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ✸
❋❛r♠ ▲❛❜♦r ❘❡♣♦rt

●❆❙P✦ ✷✵✶✽

❚r❛♥s♣❛r❡♥t ❛♥❞ ❘❡♣r♦❞✉❝✐❜❧❡ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ✹
❋❛r♠ ▲❛❜♦r ❖✣❝✐❛❧ ❙t❛t✐st✐❝s ✲ ❊1❛♠♣❧❡

❚❛❜❧❡ ✶✿ ❲❛❣❡ ❘❛t❡s ❜2 ❚2♣❡ ♦❢ ❲♦r❦❡r ✲ ❘❡❣✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❯♥✐t❡❞ ❙t❛t❡s✿ ❆♣r✐❧ ✷✵✶✽

❘❡❣✐♦♥ ❚2♣❡ ♦❢ ✇♦r❦❡r

❋✐❡❧❞ ▲✐✈❡st♦❝❦ ❋✐❡❧❞ ❛♥❞ ❧✐✈❡st♦❝❦ ❆❧❧

◆♦rt❤❡❛st ■ ✶✸✳✹✹ ✶✸✳✵✸ ✶✸✳✷✺ ✶✹✳✹✻

◆♦rt❤❡❛st ■■ ✶✸✳✸✼ ✶✷✳✻✽ ✶✸✳✶✵ ✶✸✳✽✾

❆♣♣❛❧❛❝❤✐❛♥ ■ ✶✶✳✽✼ ✶✶✳✽✵ ✶✶✳✽✺ ✶✷✳✻✾

❆♣♣❛❧❛❝❤✐❛♥ ■■ ✶✶✳✺✻ ✶✶✳✻✹ ✶✶✳✻✵ ✶✷✳✻✾

❙♦✉t❤❡❛st ✶✵✳✸✺ ✶✶✳✵✸ ✶✵✳✺✺ ✶✶✳✷✸

❋❧♦r✐❞❛ ✶✶✳✷✵ ✶✷✳✷✵ ✶✶✳✷✺ ✶✶✳✽✾

▲❛❦❡ ✶✷✳✷✽ ✶✷✳✹✶ ✶✷✳✸✺ ✶✸✳✵✷

❈♦r♥❜❡❧t ■ ✶✷✳✹✾ ✶✸✳✷✵ ✶✷✳✼✺ ✶✸✳✼✶

❈♦r♥❜❡❧t ■■ ✶✷✳✼✹ ✶✸✳✹✸ ✶✸✳✵✺ ✶✸✳✻✹

❉❡❧t❛ ✶✶✳✸✵ ✶✵✳✾✶ ✶✶✳✶✺ ✶✶✳✻✷

◆♦rt❤❡r♥ P❧❛✐♥s ✶✹✳✺✷ ✶✸✳✹✼ ✶✹✳✵✵ ✶✹✳✼✵

❙♦✉t❤❡r♥ P❧❛✐♥s ✶✶✳✹✵ ✶✷✳✶✸ ✶✶✳✼✺ ✶✷✳✷✻

▼♦✉♥t❛✐♥ ■ ✶✸✳✶✻ ✶✸✳✵✷ ✶✸✳✶✵ ✶✸✳✽✹

▼♦✉♥t❛✐♥ ■■ ✶✷✳✵✽ ✶✸✳✺✾ ✶✸✳✵✺ ✶✹✳✶✸

▼♦✉♥t❛✐♥ ■■■ ✶✶✳✼✼ ✶✷✳✵✾ ✶✶✳✾✵ ✶✸✳✶✸

P❛❝✐✜❝ ✶✹✳✶✻ ✶✹✳✶✵ ✶✹✳✶✺ ✶✹✳✾✼

❈❛❧✐❢♦r♥✐❛ ✶✸✳✹✺ ✶✹✳✶✺ ✶✸✳✺✽ ✶✺✳✶✵

❍❛✇❛✐✐ ✶✹✳✺✺ ✶✺✳✼✵ ✶✹✳✼✼ ✶✻✳✼✶

❯♥✐t❡❞ ❙t❛t❡s ✶✷✳✼✷ ✶✷✳✼✽ ✶✷✳✼✹ ✶✸✳✼✷

●❆❙P✦ ✷✵✶✽

❚r❛♥s♣❛r❡♥t ❛♥❞ ❘❡♣r♦❞✉❝✐❜❧❡ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ✺
▼♦❞❡❧✐♥❣ ❆❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❛❧ ❲❛❣❡ ❘❛t❡s

❙tr❛t❡❣2

◮ ❤✐❡r❛r❝❤✐❝❛❧ ❇❛2❡s s✉❜❛r❡❛✲❧❡✈❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧✱ ❊r❝✐✉❧❡s❝✉ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✶✽✮

◮ ♠♦❞❡❧ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ✇♦r❦❡rs ❛♥❞ ❤♦✉rs ✭r❛t❡✮ ♠✉❧t✐♣❧2

−−−−−→ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❤♦✉rs

◮ ♠♦❞❡❧ ✇❛❣❡ r❛t❡ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ✉s✐♥❣

−−−−−−−−−−−−−−→

❞❡r✐✈❡❞ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❤♦✉rs

❧❛r❣❡r ❞♦♠❛✐♥s

◮ ♦♥❡ 2❡❛r✱ ♦♥❡ q✉❛rt❡r✱ ♦♥❡ q✉❡st✐♦♥♥❛✐r❡ ❛♥❞ ♦♥❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡

◮ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ s♦❢t✇❛r❡ ❞❡✈❡❧♦♣♠❡♥ts ✐♥ ❘✱ ❘❥❛❣s ❛♥❞ ❘✷❥❛❣s

■♥♣✉t

◮ s✉❜❞♦♠❛✐♥✲❧❡✈❡❧ s✉r✈❡2 s✉♠♠❛r✐❡s✿ st❛t❡ × ✇♦r❦❡r✲t2♣❡

◮ ♣♦✐♥t ❡st✐♠❛t❡s✱ ✉♥❝❡rt❛✐♥t2 ♠❡❛s✉r❡s✱ r❡❛❧✐3❡❞ s❛♠♣❧❡ s✐3❡s

◮ ♣❛st 2❡❛r✱ s❛♠❡ q✉❛rt❡r✱ ♦✣❝✐❛❧ ✈❛❧✉❡s✿ st❛t❡ × ✇♦r❦❡r✲t2♣❡

◮ ♣♦✐♥t ❡st✐♠❛t❡s

❖✉t♣✉t

◮ s✉❜❞♦♠❛✐♥✲❧❡✈❡❧ ❛♥❞ ❞♦♠❛✐♥✲❧❡✈❡❧ ❡st✐♠❛t❡s

◮ ❣❡♦❣r❛♣❤2✿ st❛t❡s✱ r❡❣✐♦♥s✱ ♥❛t✐♦♥

◮ t2♣❡ ♦❢ ✇♦r❦❡rs✿ ✜❡❧❞✱ ❧✐✈❡st♦❝❦✱ s✉♣❡r✈✐s♦r2✱ ♦t❤❡r✱ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❛t✐♦♥s

◮ ♣♦✐♥t ❡st✐♠❛t❡s✱ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥s

●❆❙P✦ ✷✵✶✽

❚r❛♥s♣❛r❡♥t ❛♥❞ ❘❡♣r♦❞✉❝✐❜❧❡ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ✻
❘❡s✉❧ts✿ ❖♥❡ ❨❡❛r✱ ❖♥❡ ◗✉❛rt❡r✱ ❖♥❡ ❱❛r✐❛❜❧❡

State−level Statistics for April, 2018 

 Wage Rates, Field Worker Type

Estimates ± 2 SEs (where applicable)

Survey Estimate

Official Value

Model Estimate

●❆❙P✦ ✷✵✶✽

❚r❛♥s♣❛r❡♥t ❛♥❞ ❘❡♣r♦❞✉❝✐❜❧❡ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ✼
❘❡s✉❧ts✿ ❖♥❡ ❨❡❛r✱ ❖♥❡ ◗✉❛rt❡r✱ ❖♥❡ ❱❛r✐❛❜❧❡✱ ❖♥❡ ❘❡❣✐♦♥

Domain

WageRate

Type

Field

Livestock

Other

Supervisory

Posterior Distributions of Wage Rates 

 April 2018, 1 Region, 2 States, 4 Worker Types

●❆❙P✦ ✷✵✶✽

❚r❛♥s♣❛r❡♥t ❛♥❞ ❘❡♣r♦❞✉❝✐❜❧❡ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ✽
❘❡s✉❧ts✿ ❖♥❡ ❨❡❛r✱ ❖♥❡ ◗✉❛rt❡r✱ ❖♥❡ ❱❛r✐❛❜❧❡

Region−level Statistics for April, 2018 

 Wage Rates, Field Worker Type

Estimates ± 2 SEs (where applicable)

Survey Estimate

Official Value

Model Estimate

●❆❙P✦ ✷✵✶✽

❚r❛♥s♣❛r❡♥t ❛♥❞ ❘❡♣r♦❞✉❝✐❜❧❡ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ✾
❘❡s✉❧ts✿ ❖♥❡ ❨❡❛r✱ ❖♥❡ ◗✉❛rt❡r✱ ❖♥❡ ❱❛r✐❛❜❧❡

Region−level Statistics for April, 2018 

 Wage Rates, All Worker Type

Estimates ± 2 SEs (where applicable)

Survey Estimate

Official Value

Model Estimate

●❆❙P✦ ✷✵✶✽

❚r❛♥s♣❛r❡♥t ❛♥❞ ❘❡♣r♦❞✉❝✐❜❧❡ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ✶✵
❙✉♠♠❛r2 ♦♥ Pr♦❞✉❝✐♥❣ ❘❡♣r♦❞✉❝✐❜❧❡ ❙t❛t✐st✐❝s

❚r❛♥s♣❛r❡♥❝2

◮ s♦✉♥❞ ♠❡t❤♦❞♦❧♦❣2✿ ❡1♣❧✐❝✐t ♠♦❞❡❧ ❛t ❞✐s❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡❞ ❧❡✈❡❧s ❛♥❞

✐♠♣❧✐❝✐t ♠♦❞❡❧ ❛t ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡❞ ❧❡✈❡❧s

◮ ❝❧❡❛r ✉s❡ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♥tr✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛✈❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥

◮ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❡st✐♠❛t❡s

◮ q✉❛♥t✐✜❛❜❧❡ ❝❤❛♥❣❡s

❈♦♥s✐st❡♥❝2

◮ ❛❣r❡❡♠❡♥t ✇✐t❤ ❝✉rr❡♥t ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♣r♦❝❡ss

◮ ❤❛r♠♦♥2 ❛♠♦♥❣ ♥❡st❡❞ ❧❡✈❡❧s✱ t2♣❡s✱ ❝❛t❡❣♦r✐❡s✱ ❞❡✜♥✐t✐♦♥s

◮ s❛♠❡ ♠❡t❤♦❞ ❢♦r ❛❧❧ st❛t❡s✱ r❡❣✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ q✉❛♥t✐t✐❡s❀ ❛❝r♦ss t✐♠❡

◮ ❝♦♠♣❛r❛❜❧❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❡st✐♠❛t❡s ✭▼❊✮✱ s✉r✈❡2 ❡st✐♠❛t❡s✱ ♦✣❝✐❛❧ ✈❛❧✉❡s

❊✣❝✐❡♥❝2

◮ ❛❧❧ st❛t❡s ❛♥❞ r❡❣✐♦♥s ❤❛♥❞❧❡❞ ❛t ♦♥❝❡✱ ♥♦t ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧❧2

◮ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ ♣r❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❞❡❝r❡❛s❡ r❡❧❛t✐✈❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜✐❧✐t2❀ ♠♦❞❡❧ ✈s s✉r✈❡2

◮ ❢❛st ❝♦♠♣✉t❛t✐♦♥ t✐♠❡

●❆❙P✦ ✷✵✶✽

❚r❛♥s♣❛r❡♥t ❛♥❞ ❘❡♣r♦❞✉❝✐❜❧❡ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ✶✶
❆❞❞✐t✐♦♥❛❧ ◆❡❡❞s

❙✉r✈❡2 ❛ttr✐❜✉t❡s

◮ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t 2❡❛rs✱ q✉❛rt❡rs✱ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ♦❢ ✐♥t❡r❡st

◮ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t q✉❡st✐♦♥♥❛✐r❡s ✭✷✵✶✽ ❡1♣❡r✐♠❡♥t✱ ❱✶ ❛♥❞ ❱✷✮

❯♣❞❛t❡s ✐♥ s✉r✈❡2 s✉♠♠❛r2

◮ ❢r♦♠ ♦t❤❡r ❝♦❧❧❡❛❣✉❡s✴❞✐✈✐s✐♦♥s✱ ✇✐t❤✐♥ t❤❡ ❛❣❡♥❝2

▼♦❞❡❧ ✈❛❧✐❞❛t✐♦♥

◮ (✶ − α)% ❈■s

◮ r❡❧❛t✐✈❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡s✱ ✐✳❡✳ ✭▼❊ ✲ ♦✣❝✐❛❧ st❛t✐st✐❝✮✴✭c×▼❊ ❙❊✮

◮ ♣♦st❡r✐♦r ✭♣r❡❞✐❝t✐✈❡✮ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥s

❈♦♠♣❛r✐s♦♥ st✉❞2

◮ ♥♦♥♦✈❡r❧❛♣♣✐♥❣ (✶ − α)% ❈■s ✭♠♦❞❡❧ ❛♥❞ s✉r✈❡2✮

◮ ♣♦st❡r✐♦r ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡s✱ ✐✳❡✳ ▼❊ ❱✶ ✈s ▼❊ ❱✷

●❆❙P✦ ✷✵✶✽

❚r❛♥s♣❛r❡♥t ❛♥❞ ❘❡♣r♦❞✉❝✐❜❧❡ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ✶✷
▲✐t❡r❛t❡ ❙t❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ Pr♦❣r❛♠♠✐♥❣ ✲ ❉♦♥❛❧❞ ❊✳ ❑♥✉t❤ ✭✶✾✽✹✮

Pr♦s

◮ ♦♥❡ ❞♦❝✉♠❡♥t

◮ ❞❛t❛✱ ❝♦❞❡✱ ❞♦❝✉♠❡♥t❛t✐♦♥✱ ♦r❞❡r

◮ tr❛❝❦ r❡❝♦r❞

◮ ✇♦r❦ ♣r♦❣r❡ss✱ ♦♥❣♦✐♥❣ ❝❤❛♥❣❡s✱ ♥♦ ♥❡❡❞ t♦ s❛✈❡ ♦✉t♣✉t

◮ ❧✐✈❡ ❝♦❞❡

◮ r❡s✉❧ts ❛✉t♦♠❛t✐❝❛❧❧2 ✉♣❞❛t❡❞ t♦ r❡✢❡❝t ❡1t❡r♥❛❧ ❝❤❛♥❣❡s

❈♦♥s

◮ ❛ss✉♠❡ ❞❛t❛ str✉❝t✉r❡

◮ ❛ss✉♠❡ r❡❛s♦♥❛❜❧❡ ❛♠♦✉♥t ♦❢ ❞❛t❛

◮ ✐❢ ❧♦ts ♦❢ ❝♦❞❡✱ t❤❡♥ s❧♦✇❡r ♣r♦❝❡ss ✭♠❛2 ❜❡ ❛✈♦✐❞❡❞ ✉s✐♥❣ ❝❛❝❤❡✮

●❆❙P✦ ✷✵✶✽

❚r❛♥s♣❛r❡♥t ❛♥❞ ❘❡♣r♦❞✉❝✐❜❧❡ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ✶✸
❘ ❑♥✐tr✿ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❡ ✭❘✮ ❝♦❞❡ ❛♥❞ ✭LaTeX✮ t❡1t

❙♦♠❡ r❡s♦✉r❝❡s

◮ ❤♦♠❡♣❛❣❡✱ ❞❡✈❡❧♦♣♠❡♥t r❡♣♦s✐t♦r2

◮ ♦♣t✐♦♥s ♣❛❣❡✱ ❡1❛♠♣❧❡s

◮ st❛❝❦♦✈❡r✢♦✇

❊1❛♠♣❧❡ ❝♦❞❡ ❝❤✉♥❦ ♦♣t✐♦♥s

◮ ❡❝❤♦✿ s❤♦✇

◮ ✇❛r♥✐♥❣✴♠❡ss❛❣❡✴❡rr♦r✿ s❤♦✇✴st♦♣

◮ ❡✈❛❧✿ ❡✈❛❧✉❛t❡

◮ ❝❛❝❤❡✿ ❝❛❝❤❡ r❡s✉❧ts

❊1❛♠♣❧❡ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥s

◮ ❦♥✐t✭✮✿ ❦♥✐t ✐♥♣✉t ❞♦❝✉♠❡♥t ❛♥❞ ✇r✐t❡ ♦✉t♣✉t ✭❘❙t✉❞✐♦ r❡❝♦❣♥✐3❡s

✳❘♥✇ ✐♥♣✉t ❡1t❡♥s✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ✳t❡1 ♦✉t♣✉t ❡1t❡♥s✐♦♥✮

◮ ♣✉r❧✭✮✿ ❡1tr❛❝t ❘ ❝♦❞❡ ❢r♦♠ ❛♥ ✐♥♣✉t ❞♦❝✉♠❡♥t

●❆❙P✦ ✷✵✶✽

❚r❛♥s♣❛r❡♥t ❛♥❞ ❘❡♣r♦❞✉❝✐❜❧❡ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ✶✹
❙✐♠♣❧❡ ❊1❛♠♣❧❡s

❞♦❝✉♠❡♥t❝❧❛ss4❛rt✐❝❧❡6

❜❡❣✐♥4❞♦❝✉♠❡♥t6

❲✐❧❧ ♣r♦✈✐❞❡ s✐♠♣❧❡ ❝♦❞❡ ❝❤✉♥❦s ❛♥❞ ✐♥❧✐♥❡ t❡1t ✐♥ t❤❡

❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ s❧✐❞❡s✳

✓✔❂ ✭❘ ❝♦❞❡✮ ❅✱ ✐✳❡✳ ✓❡1❝❤✉♥❦✱❡❝❤♦❂❚❘❯❊✱❡✈❛❧❂❋❆▲❙❊✔❂

❡♥❞4❞♦❝✉♠❡♥t6

●❆❙P✦ ✷✵✶✽

❚r❛♥s♣❛r❡♥t ❛♥❞ ❘❡♣r♦❞✉❝✐❜❧❡ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ✶✺
❙✐♠♣❧❡ ❊1❛♠♣❧❡s ✷

s❡t✳s❡❡❞✭✷✵✶✽✮

1 ❁✲ r♥♦r♠✭✶✵✵✱✵✱✶✮

♠1 ❁✲ ♠❡❛♥✭1✮

❙❡1♣r4♠16✿ ✵✳✵✷✶✶✾✶✾

s❡t✳s❡❡❞✭✷✵✶✽✮

1 ❁✲ r♥♦r♠✭✶✵✵✱✵✱✶✮

♣❛r✭♠❛r ❂ ❝✭✶✱✶✱✵✳✸✱✵✳✸✮ ✰ ✵✳✶✮

❤✐st✭1✱ ❝❡1✳♠❛✐♥❂✵✳✻✱❝❡1✳❧❛❜❂✵✳✻✱ ❝❡1✳❛1✐s❂✵✳✻✱ 1❧❛❜❂✑✮

Histogram of x

0 5 10 15 20

●❆❙P✦ ✷✵✶✽

❚r❛♥s♣❛r❡♥t ❛♥❞ ❘❡♣r♦❞✉❝✐❜❧❡ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ✶✻
❙✐♠♣❧❡ ❊1❛♠♣❧❡s ✸

s❡t✳s❡❡❞✭✷✵✶✽✮

♠❛t1 ❁✲ ♠❛tr✐1✭r♥♦r♠✭✷✵✱✵✱✶✮✱♥r♦✇❂✹✮

❞ ❁✲ ❢♦r♠❛t❈✭♠❛t1✱✸✱ ❢♦r♠❛t❂✬❢✬✮

❜❡❣✐♥4t❛❜❧❡6❬❤t❪

❝❡♥t❡r✐♥❣

❜❡❣✐♥4t❛❜✉❧❛r64rrrrrr6

❤❧✐♥❡

✫ ✶ ✫ ✷ ✫ ✸ ✫ ✹ ✫ ✺

❤❧✐♥❡

✶ ✫ ❙❡1♣r4❞❬✶✱✶❪6 ✫ ❙❡1♣r4❞❬✶✱✷❪6 ✫ ❙❡1♣r4❞❬✶✱✸❪6 ✫ ❙❡1♣r4❞❬✶✱✹❪6 ✫ ❙❡1♣r4❞❬✶✱✺❪6

✷ ✫ ❙❡1♣r4❞❬✷✱✶❪6 ✫ ❙❡1♣r4❞❬✷✱✷❪6 ✫ ❙❡1♣r4❞❬✷✱✸❪6 ✫ ❙❡1♣r4❞❬✷✱✹❪6 ✫ ❙❡1♣r4❞❬✷✱✺❪6

✸ ✫ ❙❡1♣r4❞❬✸✱✶❪6 ✫ ❙❡1♣r4❞❬✸✱✷❪6 ✫ ❙❡1♣r4❞❬✸✱✸❪6 ✫ ❙❡1♣r4❞❬✸✱✹❪6 ✫ ❙❡1♣r4❞❬✸✱✺❪6

✹ ✫ ❙❡1♣r4❞❬✹✱✶❪6 ✫ ❙❡1♣r4❞❬✹✱✷❪6 ✫ ❙❡1♣r4❞❬✹✱✸❪6 ✫ ❙❡1♣r4❞❬✹✱✹❪6 ✫ ❙❡1♣r4❞❬✹✱✺❪6

❤❧✐♥❡

❡♥❞4t❛❜✉❧❛r6

❡♥❞4t❛❜❧❡6

✶ ✷ ✸ ✹ ✺

✶ ✲✵✳✹✷✸ ✶✳✼✸✺ ✲✵✳✻✶✶ ✵✳✼✶✷ ✲✶✳✽✷✼

✷ ✲✶✳✺✺✵ ✲✵✳✷✻✺ ✵✳✻✸✼ ✲✵✳✹✹✻ ✵✳✵✶✺

✸ ✲✵✳✵✻✹ ✷✳✵✾✾ ✲✵✳✻✹✸ ✵✳✷✹✾ ✲✶✳✻✽✹

✹ ✵✳✷✼✶ ✵✳✽✻✸ ✲✶✳✵✸✵ ✲✶✳✵✼✹ ✵✳✷✵✹

●❆❙P✦ ✷✵✶✽

❚r❛♥s♣❛r❡♥t ❛♥❞ ❘❡♣r♦❞✉❝✐❜❧❡ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ✶✼
❋❛r♠ ▲❛❜♦r ❘❡♣♦rt ✉s✐♥❣ ▼♦❞❡❧✲❜❛s❡❞∗ ❊st✐♠❛t❡s

✯ ❉✉❡ t♦ ❞✐s❝❧♦s✉r❡ ❧✐♠✐t❛t✐♦♥s✱ ♦✣❝✐❛❧ ❡st✐♠❛t❡s ❛r❡ ✉s❡❞ ❢♦r ✐❧❧✉str❛t✐♦♥

❚❛❜❧❡ ✷✿ ❲❛❣❡ ❘❛t❡s ❜2 ❚2♣❡ ♦❢ ❲♦r❦❡r ✲ ❘❡❣✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❯♥✐t❡❞ ❙t❛t❡s✿ ❆♣r✐❧ ✷✵✶✽

❘❡❣✐♦♥ ❚2♣❡ ♦❢ ✇♦r❦❡r

❋✐❡❧❞ ▲✐✈❡st♦❝❦ ❋✐❡❧❞ ❛♥❞ ❧✐✈❡st♦❝❦ ❆❧❧

◆♦rt❤❡❛st■ ✶✸✳✹✹ ✭✶✳✻✽✮ ✶✸✳✵✸ ✭✶✳✺✻✮ ✶✸✳✷✺ ✭✵✳✹✶✮ ✶✹✳✹✻ ✭✵✳✺✽✮

◆♦rt❤❡❛st■■ ✶✸✳✸✼ ✭✷✳✵✾✮ ✶✷✳✻✽ ✭✶✳✹✽✮ ✶✸✳✶✵ ✭✵✳✸✼✮ ✶✸✳✽✾ ✭✵✳✹✷✮

❆♣♣❛❧❛❝❤✐❛♥■ ✶✶✳✽✼ ✭✶✳✹✷✮ ✶✶✳✽✵ ✭✶✳✺✼✮ ✶✶✳✽✺ ✭✵✳✹✵✮ ✶✷✳✻✾ ✭✵✳✷✹✮

❆♣♣❛❧❛❝❤✐❛♥■■ ✶✶✳✺✻ ✭✶✳✼✸✮ ✶✶✳✻✹ ✭✷✳✷✵✮ ✶✶✳✻✵ ✭✵✳✹✹✮ ✶✷✳✻✾ ✭✵✳✺✶✮

❙♦✉t❤❡❛st ✶✵✳✸✺ ✭✶✳✹✻✮ ✶✶✳✵✸ ✭✶✳✻✺✮ ✶✵✳✺✺ ✭✵✳✸✶✮ ✶✶✳✷✸ ✭✵✳✺✸✮

❋❧♦r✐❞❛ ✶✶✳✷✵ ✭✵✳✾✼✮ ✶✷✳✷✵ ✭✶✳✹✽✮ ✶✶✳✷✺ ✭✵✳✷✺✮ ✶✶✳✽✾ ✭✵✳✶✾✮

▲❛❦❡ ✶✷✳✷✽ ✭✶✳✷✸✮ ✶✷✳✹✶ ✭✶✳✸✵✮ ✶✷✳✸✺ ✭✵✳✷✺✮ ✶✸✳✵✷ ✭✵✳✸✺✮

❈♦r♥❜❡❧t■ ✶✷✳✹✾ ✭✶✳✺✼✮ ✶✸✳✷✵ ✭✷✳✵✶✮ ✶✷✳✼✺ ✭✵✳✻✹✮ ✶✸✳✼✶ ✭✵✳✻✹✮

❈♦r♥❜❡❧t■■ ✶✷✳✼✹ ✭✶✳✺✾✮ ✶✸✳✹✸ ✭✷✳✶✵✮ ✶✸✳✵✺ ✭✵✳✺✶✮ ✶✸✳✻✹ ✭✵✳✺✸✮

❉❡❧t❛ ✶✶✳✸✵ ✭✵✳✾✻✮ ✶✵✳✾✶ ✭✷✳✻✵✮ ✶✶✳✶✺ ✭✵✳✶✽✮ ✶✶✳✻✷ ✭✵✳✷✹✮

◆♦rt❤❡r♥P❧❛✐♥s ✶✹✳✺✷ ✭✶✳✻✹✮ ✶✸✳✹✼ ✭✶✳✺✾✮ ✶✹✳✵✵ ✭✵✳✹✸✮ ✶✹✳✼✵ ✭✵✳✹✾✮

❙♦✉t❤❡r♥P❧❛✐♥s ✶✶✳✹✵ ✭✶✳✹✻✮ ✶✷✳✶✸ ✭✶✳✽✽✮ ✶✶✳✼✺ ✭✵✳✸✺✮ ✶✷✳✷✻ ✭✵✳✸✸✮

▼♦✉♥t❛✐♥■ ✶✸✳✶✻ ✭✷✳✸✼✮ ✶✸✳✵✷ ✭✷✳✶✾✮ ✶✸✳✶✵ ✭✵✳✺✺✮ ✶✸✳✽✹ ✭✵✳✺✶✮

▼♦✉♥t❛✐♥■■ ✶✷✳✵✽ ✭✶✳✻✽✮ ✶✸✳✺✾ ✭✷✳✾✾✮ ✶✸✳✵✺ ✭✵✳✸✽✮ ✶✹✳✶✸ ✭✵✳✸✽✮

▼♦✉♥t❛✐♥■■■ ✶✶✳✼✼ ✭✶✳✼✹✮ ✶✷✳✵✾ ✭✶✳✺✷✮ ✶✶✳✾✵ ✭✵✳✸✸✮ ✶✸✳✶✸ ✭✶✳✵✹✮

P❛❝✐✜❝ ✶✹✳✶✻ ✭✶✳✼✹✮ ✶✹✳✶✵ ✭✶✳✻✹✮ ✶✹✳✶✺ ✭✵✳✸✶✮ ✶✹✳✾✼ ✭✵✳✺✷✮

❈❛❧✐❢♦r♥✐❛ ✶✸✳✹✺ ✭✵✳✺✽✮ ✶✹✳✶✺ ✭✵✳✻✼✮ ✶✸✳✺✽ ✭✵✳✶✺✮ ✶✺✳✶✵ ✭✵✳✷✶✮

❍❛✇❛✐✐ ✶✹✳✺✺ ✭✶✳✸✼✮ ✶✺✳✼✵ ✭✶✳✾✷✮ ✶✹✳✼✼ ✭✵✳✽✶✮ ✶✻✳✼✶ ✭✵✳✻✵✮

❯♥✐t❡❞❙t❛t❡s ✶✷✳✼✷ ✭✵✳✸✻✮ ✶✷✳✼✽ ✭✵✳✹✵✮ ✶✷✳✼✹ ✭✵✳✵✾✮ ✶✸✳✼✷ ✭✵✳✶✷✮

●❆❙P✦ ✷✵✶✽

❚r❛♥s♣❛r❡♥t ❛♥❞ ❘❡♣r♦❞✉❝✐❜❧❡ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ✶✽
❘❡s✉❧ts✿ ❖♥❡ ❨❡❛r✱ ❖♥❡ ◗✉❛rt❡r✱ ❖♥❡ ❱❛r✐❛❜❧❡✱ ❖♥❡ ❘❡❣✐♦♥

Domain

GrossWageRate

Type

Field

Livestock

Other

Supervisory

Posterior Distributions of Gross Wage Rates 

 April 2018, 1 Region, 2 States, 4 Worker Types

●❆❙P✦ ✷✵✶✽

❚r❛♥s♣❛r❡♥t ❛♥❞ ❘❡♣r♦❞✉❝✐❜❧❡ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ✶✾
❘❡s✉❧ts✿ ❖♥❡ ❨❡❛r✱ ❖♥❡ ◗✉❛rt❡r✱ ❖♥❡ ❱❛r✐❛❜❧❡✱ ❖♥❡ ❘❡❣✐♦♥

Domain

BaseWageRate

Type

Field

Livestock

Other

Supervisory

Posterior Distributions of Base Wage Rates 

 April 2018, 1 Region, 2 States, 4 Worker Types

●❆❙P✦ ✷✵✶✽

❚r❛♥s♣❛r❡♥t ❛♥❞ ❘❡♣r♦❞✉❝✐❜❧❡ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ✷✵
❙✉♠♠❛r2

❘❡♣r♦❞✉❝✐❜❧❡ r❡s❡❛r❝❤ ❢r❛♠❡✇♦r❦✿ ♣r♦❞✉❝✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ r❡♣♦rt✐♥❣

▲✐st ♦❢ ❘ ♣❛❝❦❛❣❡s ✉s❡❞✿

❉2♥❛♠✐❝ ❘❡♣♦rt✐♥❣✿ ❦♥✐tr

❚❡1t ▼✐♥✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ▼❛♥✐♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥✿ t♠✱ str✐♥❣r

❉❛t❛ ▼❛♥✐♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥✿ ❞♣❧2r

▼♦❞❡❧ ❋✐t ❛♥❞ ❊st✐♠❛t✐♦♥✿ r❥❛❣s✱ ❘✷❥❛❣s

❉❛t❛ ❱✐s✉❛❧✐3❛t✐♦♥✿ ❣❣♣❧♦t✷✱ ❣❣r✐❞❣❡s

●❆❙P✦ ✷✵✶✽

❚r❛♥s♣❛r❡♥t ❛♥❞ ❘❡♣r♦❞✉❝✐❜❧❡ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ✷✶
❙❡❧❡❝t❡❞ ❘❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡s

❊r❝✐✉❧❡s❝✉ ❆✳▲✳✱ ❈r✉3❡ ◆✳✱ ◆❛♥❞r❛♠ ❇✳ ✭✷✵✶✽✮ ✏▼♦❞❡❧✲❇❛s❡❞ ❈♦✉♥t2✲▲❡✈❡❧

❈r♦♣ ❊st✐♠❛t❡s ■♥❝♦r♣♦r❛t✐♥❣ ❆✉1✐❧✐❛r2 ❙♦✉r❝❡s ♦❢ ■♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥✱✑ ❏♦✉r♥❛❧ ♦❢

t❤❡ ❘♦2❛❧ ❙t❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ❙♦❝✐❡t2✱ ❙❡r✐❡s ❆✱ ❉❖■ ✶✵✴✶✶✶✶✴rss❛✳✶✷✸✾✵✳

❑♥✉t❤ ❉✳ ✭✶✾✽✹✮ ✏▲✐t❡r❛t❡ Pr♦❣r❛♠♠✐♥❣✱✑ ❚❤❡ ❈♦♠♣✉t❡r ❏♦✉r♥❛❧✱ ✷✼✱ ✷✱ ✾✼ ✲

✶✶✶✳

❘❡✐st ❇✳✱ ❲✐❧s♦♥ ❚✳✱ ❇❛❧❧ ❙✳✱ ❨♦✉♥❣ ▲✳ ✭✷✵✶✽✮ ✏Pr❡❧✐♠✐♥❛r2 ❋✐♥❞✐♥❣s ❢♦r ❆♣r✐❧

✷✵✶✽ ❆❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❛❧ ▲❛❜♦r ❜❛s❡ ❲❛❣❡ ◗✉❡st✐♦♥ ❊1♣❡r✐♠❡♥t✱✑ ❯❙❉❆ ◆❆❙❙

❘❉❉ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ❘❡♣♦rt✱ ❘❉❉✲✶✼✲11✳

❯❙❉❆ ◆❆❙❙ ✭✷✵✶✽✮ ✏❋❛r♠ ▲❛❜♦r ❙✉r✈❡2✱✑

❤tt♣s✿✴✴✇✇✇✳♥❛ss✳✉s❞❛✳❣♦✈✴❙✉r✈❡2s✴●✉✐❞❡t♦◆❆❙❙❙✉r✈❡2s✴❋❛r♠▲❛❜♦r✴✳

❳✐❡✱ ❨✳ ✭✷✵✵✺✲✷✵✶✽✮ ✏❦♥✐tr✱✑ ❤tt♣s✿✴✴2✐❤✉✐✳♥❛♠❡✴❦♥✐tr✴✳

●❆❙P✦ ✷✵✶✽

❚r❛♥s♣❛r❡♥t ❛♥❞ ❘❡♣r♦❞✉❝✐❜❧❡ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ✷✷
❚❤❛♥❦ 2♦✉✦

❛❡r❝✐✉❧❡s❝✉❅♥✐ss✳♦r❣

❛♥❞r❡❡❛✳❡r❝✐✉❧❡s❝✉❅♥❛ss✳✉s❞❛✳❣♦✈

●❆❙P✦ ✷✵✶✽

❚r❛♥s♣❛r❡♥t ❛♥❞ ❘❡♣r♦❞✉❝✐❜❧❡ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ✷✸