New Firm Size JOLTS Data Provide 

Insight to the U.S. Labor Market 

Charlotte Oslund, BLS/JOLTS 

Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology 

Research Conference 

Washington, DC 

November 4, 2013 
 

 

BLS Labor Market Data 

CES Employment: 

matched labor supply/demand 

CPS Unemployment: JOLTS Job Openings: 

excess supply of labor excess demand for labor 

2 
JOLTS Survey Scope 

~16,400 establishments 

sampled from: 

 Nonagricultural industries 

 All 50 states and the District of 

Columbia 

 Private sector and government 

 All size classes 
JOLTS Data Elements 

 Employment (pay period of the 12th) 

 Job openings (last day of the month) 

 Hires (full month) 

 Total Separations (full month) 

Quits 

Layoffs and Discharges 

Other Separations 
JOLTS and the 

Labor Market 

 Strong economy 

Open jobs available 

Quits are high 

Layoffs are low 

People are retiring 

 Struggling economy opposite of the 

above. 

 May be leading indicators of turns in the 

business cycle. 
Job openings and employment 

Seasonally adjusted, in thousands 

Job Openings 

5,500 

5,000 

4,500 

4,000 

3,500 

3,000 

2,500 

2,000 

Employment 

Job Openings 

140,000 

138,000 

136,000 

134,000 

132,000 

130,000 

128,000 

126,000 

Employment 
Why size class estimates? 

 Size class data provides a better 

understanding of what happens throughout 

the business cycle. 

 Do firms of different sizes react differently 

across the business cycle? 

 Are firms of different sizes affected the same 

way and same amount by economic turns? 

 Do workers act differently based on the size 

of their employing firm? 

 Useful information for economists and 

policymakers. 
JOLTS Size Class Estimates 

 Size class estimates based on size of 

establishment began in 2010. 

Experimental and available upon request 

from JoltsInfo@bls.gov. 

 Size class estimates based on size of 

firm are being researched. 
 

Establishment vs. Firm 

 An establishment is a single location and may 

be part of a larger company. 

 The firm includes all or multiple locations of 

the business. 

 Economic analysis at the firm level makes 

sense since business decisions are made at 

the firm level. 

 Size class data are for private sector only 

since the concept of “firm” is not intuitive for 

government. 

9 
 

JOLTS Monthly Estimator 

 Frame stratified by ownership/region/industry 

sector/establishment size class 

 Sample unit = establishment 

 Est = JOLTS*WGT*NRAF*BMF 

 WGT=sampled weight 

 NRAF=nonresponse adjustment factor 

 BMF= ratio CES Emp/JOLTS Emp 

 No new methodology needed for 

establishment-based size class estimates. 

10 
Firm Size Challenges 

 JOLTS does not sample the firm, so have to 

post-stratify sample units into size classes 

based on parent firm size. 

 No CES employment by firm size. 

 The frame, Quarterly Census of Employment 

and Wages (QCEW), has employment by size 

of firm but lags JOLTS by 9 months. Ex: 

When JOLTS estimates August 2013, the 

latest QCEW is 4th quarter 2012. 

 QCEW is quarterly while JOLTS is monthly. 

11 
Firm Size Decisions 

 Employment distribution by firm size changes 

slowly; reasonable to model missing months 

from most-current QCEW. 

 Chose 12-month moving average. 

 Recompute 12MMA quarterly as new QCEW 

quarter is available. 

 Multiply employment distribution by firm size 

times current month CES employment to 

provide JOLTS BMF. 

 Est = JOLTS*WGT*NRAF*PSF*BMF 

12 
Firm Size: Job Openings Rate, SA 

-

- Size250+ 

- Size 50-249 

- Sizel-49 

!' ---' , 

BLS 
Job Openings by Firm Size 

 Small firms cut a lot of job openings 

during the recession and have increased 

only slightly post-recession. 

 Medium and large firms cut job 

openings more sharply during the 

recession but began increasing 

openings post-recession. 

 Job openings seem to be flattening now 

for all three firm sizes. 

14 
Firm Size: Hi1res Rate, SA 

.5 .0% 

4 .5% 

4 .0% 

2 .0% -t---r----r---.-----.-----.----,.--..---.---.--~-.-----.-----.~..--.....-----r-----r---.---.-----r--,.--..---,.--.

t\.'\. '\. '\. 

s;)'\) ~'\. 

~ '"\,($, 

- Size l-49 

- Size 50-249 

- Size 2 50 + 

-- !'--' , 

BLS 
Hires by Firm Size 

 Small firms cut hires gradually before 

and during the recession and have not 

increased hiring yet post-recession. 

 Medium and large firms cut hires more 

sharply during the recession, increased 

hiring slightly post-recession. 

 Hires are flat now in all three firm sizes. 

16 
!Firm Size: Layoffs & !Discharges Rate, SA 

-- !'--' , 

BLS 

- Size 1-49 

- Size 50-24 19 

- Size 250+ 
Layoffs by Firm Size 

 Firms of all sizes increased layoffs 

gradually through the first part of the 

recession with a large peak about 2/3 

the way through the recession. 

 Firms of all sizes reduced layoffs to prerecession levels or better during 2010. 

 Small and medium firms have held 

layoffs steady since 2010 but large firm 

layoffs may be creeping upwards again. 

18 
Two Sides of the Story 

 Data that tell us about the employer: 

Job openings 

Hires 

Layoffs and discharges 

 Data that tell us about the worker: 

Quits 

Other Separations (retirements) 

19 
Quits rates were lowest at large firms before the 

recession, but now the quits rate is very low and the 

same at firms of all sizes. Workers are not quitting their 

jobs. 
 

Retirements and transfers are more common in large firms 

that offer retirement packages and that have multiple 

locations to transfer between. 
 In small firms, layoffs outnumbered 

quits for nearly 2 years. 

 Workers at small firms are hanging on 

to their jobs (flat quits, L&D). 22 
 In medium firms, layoffs outnumbered 

quits for about 1 1⁄2 years. 

 Quits are trending up ever so slightly; 

L&D had a second peak in spring 2012.23 
 Large firms had barely more layoffs than quits 

very briefly at the height of the recession. 

 Workers at large firms are slowly beginning to 

quit more often but layoffs seem to creeping 

upwards too. 24 
Conclusion 

 The JOLTS size class data provide 

additional information about the labor 

market and state of the economy. 

 Establishment-based estimates are 

available now. 

 Firm-based estimates are under 

research and will be available as soon 

as possible. 

25 
 

 

Contact Information 

Charlotte Oslund 

Statistician 

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey 

Bureau of Labor Statistics 

www.bls.gov/jlt 

JoltsInfo@bls.gov 

(202) 691-5870