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Who gets married and who breaks up?

Tracking Relationship Transitions After the Introduction of Legal Same-Sex 

Marriage in the U.S. Using Linked Survey and Administrative Data

Marta Murray-Close and Brian Knop, U.S. Census Bureau

FCSM Research and Policy Conference

October 25, 2022
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Any opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of 

the authors and do not reflect the views of the U.S. Census 

Bureau.

The Census Bureau’s Disclosure Review Board has approved 

all statistics and estimates presented today for public release 

under approval numbers CBDRB-FY2021-CES005-025 and 

CBDRB-FY2023-CES005-001.
Timing of same-sex marriage expansion

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2004-2012

Beginning with Massachusetts, some states legalize 

same-sex marriage, but the federal government does 

not recognize those marriages.

2013-2014

Following United States v. Winsor, the federal 

government recognizes same-sex marriages performed 

in states where they are legal.

2015 and later Following Obergefell v. Hodges, all states must 

recognize same-sex marriages.
Timing of same-sex marriage expansion

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2004-2012

Beginning with Massachusetts, some states legalize 

same-sex marriage, but the federal government does 

not recognize those marriages.

2013-2014

Following United States v. Winsor, the federal 

government recognizes same-sex marriages performed 

in states where they are legal.

2015 and later Following Obergefell v. Hodges, all states must 

recognize same-sex marriages.
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Meaning of 

marriage 

Larger economic gains to relationship 

(Delhommer and Hamermesh 2021)

Social and symbolic importance

Ambivalence due to unique social and 

historical context (Bosley-Smith and Reczek 

2018) 
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Policy

shocks

Evidence from the Netherlands (Chen 

and van Ours 2018) and Massachusetts 

(Carpenter 2020) shows many same-sex 

cohabitors married when it became 

available (though some split up)
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Relationship 

trajectories 

Limited research on the duration and 

trajectories of same-sex couples 

(Umberson et al. 2015) 

Most nationally-representative 

surveys collect marital duration, but 

not cohabiting duration
Research focus

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We use linked survey and administrative data to explore the 

relationship transitions of same-sex couples when they gained 

access to legal marriage.
Data

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American Community Survey IRS Forms 1040

Used to determine

• Sex composition of couple

• Relationship status in year before 

policy change

• Characteristics of each partner

Used to determine

• Relationship status three years after 

policy change

• When coresidential relationship 

began

Excluding

• Couples from D.C. and 8 states where 

same-sex marriage was already legal 

in 2013

Linked

Survey years 2012-2014 Tax years 1975-2019
Hypothetical relationship trajectory

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Hypothetical relationship trajectory

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Law 

change

2013
Hypothetical relationship trajectory

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Law 

change

2013

ACS

2012
Hypothetical relationship trajectory

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Law 

change

2013

ACS

2012
Hypothetical relationship trajectory

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Law 

change

2013

Outcome

2016

ACS

2012
Hypothetical relationship trajectory

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Years living together

Law 

change

2013

Outcome

2016

ACS

2012
Sample exclusions

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Percentage of couples excluded

Reason for exclusion

Same-sex 

female

Same-sex 

male

Different-sex 

cohabiting

Different-sex 

married

ACS couple sex composition not 

validated by Numident

38.1 35.9 14.6 8.4

ACS couple marital status 

contradicted by AR

8.1 7.2 17.6 2.4

AR relationship outcome 

missing

12.4 13.9 24.2 12.4

Same-sex married couple 2.1 2.8

Not excluded: Retained in 

sample

40.5 40.0 43.7 76.8

Source: American Community Survey, 2012-2014 survey years, linked to IRS Forms 1040, 1975-2019 tax years.
Years living together before survey participation

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Source: American Community Survey, 2012-2014 survey years, linked to IRS Forms 

1040, 1975-2019 tax years.
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What percentage of same-sex cohabiting couples got married 

when legal marriage became available?

Were long-term cohabitors more or less likely than new 

cohabitors to get married?
Marriage probabilities by years living together

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Source: American Community Survey, 2012-2014 survey years, linked to IRS Forms 

1040, 1975-2019 tax years.
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What about break-ups?
Break-up probabilities by years living together

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Source: American Community Survey, 2012-2014 survey years, linked to IRS Forms 

1040, 1975-2019 tax years.
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Are highly educated couples more or less likely to marry?
Marriage probabilities by college attainment

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Source: American Community Survey, 2012-2014 survey years, linked to IRS Forms 

1040, 1975-2019 tax years.
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Are couples with mixed citizenship more or less likely to marry?
Marriage probabilities by citizenship

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Source: American Community Survey, 2012-2014 survey years, linked to IRS Forms 

1040, 1975-2019 tax years.
Conclusions

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• By constructing longitudinal relationship trajectories from 

administrative data, we can identify short- versus long-term 

cohabitors and can track relationship transitions over time.

• About half of long-term same-sex couples in late-adopting states 

married within three years when legal marriage became available –

but about half remained cohabiting.

• Among same-sex couples, longer-term and more-educated couples 

were more likely than others to marry. Mixed-citizenship couples 

were not.
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Thank you!

marta.murray.close@census.gov
Break-up probabilities by college attainment

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Source: American Community Survey, 2012-2014 survey years, linked to IRS Forms 

1040, 1975-2019 tax years.
Break-up probabilities by citizenship

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Source: American Community Survey, 2012-2014 survey years, linked to IRS Forms 

1040, 1975-2019 tax years.