Mortality in a Multi-State Cohort of 

Former State Prisoners, 2010-2015

Eric English, U.S. Census Bureau

Leticia Fernandez, U.S. Census Bureau

Sharon Ennis, U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs

Sonya R. Porter, U.S. Census Bureau

E. Ann Carson, Bureau of Justice Statistics

October 25, 2022

Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology 

Research and Policy Conference

Any opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not reflect the views of the U.S. Census Bureau. The Census Bureau has 

reviewed this data product for unauthorized disclosure of confidential information and has approved the disclosure avoidance practices applied to this 

release (Approval ID: CBDRB-FY21-123, CBDRB-FY21-CES010-011, CBDRB-FY22-CES014-004, and CBDRB-FY22-CES010-003 )
Background

• For those who are in prison, mortality rates are consistently lower 

than groups with similar characteristics in the resident population

• In contrast, formerly imprisoned individuals tend to have higher 

mortality rates than their demographic counterparts

• Most studies on mortality risk for the formerly incarcerated focus on 

one state

• We used data from 35 states to explore the factors associated with 

the probability of dying within 5 years of prison release

• Results Preview:

• Mortality rates for this sample are higher than the general population, though 

they vary widely by race, Hispanic origin, and other demographics

• Risk of death is highest for former prisoners in the first month of release

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Data

• 2010 National Corrections Reporting Program (NCRP) cohort of released state 

prisoners from 35 states 

• NCRP data includes some demographic information, as well as data on 

sentence and release characteristics 

• About 84 percent of 2010 NCRP release cohort had a unique Protected 

Identification Key (PIK) assigned for record linkage

• The NCRP was linked to:

• The 2019 Census Numident to identify deaths between 2010 and 2015, 

within 5 years of a person’s release

• Previous decennial censuses and survey responses to obtain self-reported 

race and Hispanic origin

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Select Descriptive Statistics

Characteristics

With PIK (no 

duplicates)

Pct of 

Total PIK rate

Total 84.0

Hispanic origin and race

 Non-Hispanic white 87.8

 Non-Hispanic black 83.9

 Non-Hispanic all others 93.2

 Hispanic 73.7

 Missing 60.0

Age at release1

 Less than 25 years 85.0

 25-34 years 84.3

 35-44 years 84.2

 45-54 years 83.5

 55-64 years 80.0

 65 years and older 79.5

 Missing (D)

Sex

 Male 83.9

 Female 83.8

 Missing <15 (D) (D)

421,000 88.1

57,000 11.9

3,000 0.6

(D) (D)

173,000 36.2

120,000 25.1

80,500 16.8

82,500 17.3

179,000 37.5

18,000 3.8

76,000 15.9

19,000 4.0

478,000 100.0

204,000 42.7

1,100 0.2

Characteristics

With PIK (no 

duplicates)

Pct of 

Total PIK rate

Education reported in NCRP

 Less than high school 83.9

 High school or GED 86.0

 Some college 89.5

 College or higher 87.5

 Missing 82.3

Time served2

 Less than 1 year 82.4

 1-1.9 years 87.6

 2-2.9 years 85.3

 3-4.9 years 85.7

 5-6.9 years 83.9

 7-9.9 years 85.2

 10 or more years 85.2

Release type3

 Conditional 311,000 65.1 84.2

 Unconditional 145,000 30.3 82.6

 Missing 22,000 4.6 85.7

13,000 2.7

9,600 2.0

11,500 2.4

96,000 20.1

42,500 8.9

35,000 7.3

142,000 29.7

198,000 41.4

271,000 56.7

119,000 24.9

16,500 3.5

2,700 0.6

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Summary of Deaths within 5 years of Release

• About 4 percent of 2010 releasees 

died within five years

• The mortality rate is highest for nonHispanic whites and lowest for nonHispanic blacks

• The mortality rate increases with the 

age at release

• The mortality rate is similar across 

sexes
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• Across all subgroups, deaths are highly 

elevated during the first month after

release

• This spike is especially prominent for 

non-Hispanic whites

• Deaths even out in the second month 

and remain steady throughout the rest 

of the sample. Deaths tick upwards 

near the end of the time period. 

Timing of Deaths

Approved for release by the Census Bureau's Disclosure Review Board, CBDRB-FY21-123 and CBDRB-FY21-CES010-011.

Source: 1983-2016 National Corrections Reporting Program, 2019 Census Numident, and Previous Census Data.

Note: All counts are rounded to be in compliance with the Census Bureau's disclosure avoidance policies.
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• For all races/Hispanic origin, 

individuals released at older ages 

were more likely to die within 5 

years compared to their younger 

counterparts.

• After age 25, non-Hispanic whites 

were more likely to die within 5 

years of prison release than 

individuals of any other 

race/Hispanic origin in the same 

age group, though the difference is 

not significant for the non-Hispanic 

other grouping.

Age and Race
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• For non-Hispanic whites and 

the non-Hispanic other 

grouping, conditional 

release was associated with 

lower mortality within 5 

years of prison release. 

• Type of release was not a 

significant factor in the 

probability of dying for nonHispanic blacks and 

Hispanics. 

Conditional Release and Race
Deceased w/in 5 yrs of release

(Alive is omitted category)

Hispanic origin and race

 Non-Hispanic white (omitted)

 Non-Hispanic black 0.65***

 Non-Hispanic all others 0.88***

 Hispanic 0.76***

Age at release

 Less than 25 years (omitted) 

 25-34 years 1.14***

 35-44 years 1.61***

 45-54 years 3.20***

 55 years and older 7.66***

Sex

 Male (omitted) 

 Female 0.83***

Education reported in NCRP

 Less than high school (omitted)

 High school or GED 0.94**

 Some college 0.92*

 College or higher 0.83*

 Missing 0.96

Time served

 Less than 1 year (omitted) 

 1-1.9 years 0.94**

 2-4.9 years 0.91***

 5 or more years 0.81***

Characteristics

Logistic Regression with Full Sample Predicting the Mortality of Prisoners 

Released in 2010, Odds Ratios

*p<.05, **p<.01, ***p<.001

Table approved for release by the Census Bureau's Disclosure Review Board, CBDRB-FY21-123 and CBDRB-FY22- CES014-004.

Source: 1983-2016 National Corrections Reporting Program, 2019 Census Numident, and Previous Census Data. Note: All counts 

are rounded to be in compliance with the Census Bureau's disclosure avoidance policies.

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Logistic Regression with Full Sample Predicting the Mortality of Prisoners 

Released in 2010, Odds Ratios (cont.)

Deceased w/in 5 yrs of release

(Alive is omitted category)

Additional terms served between 2005 and 2010

 0 terms (omitted)

 1 term 1.18***

 2 or more terms 1.50***

Release type 

 Conditional (omitted)

 Unconditional 1.06**

Most serious offense

 Violent (omitted)

 Property 1.04

 Drugs 0.98

 Public order 1.05*

Region

 South (omitted)

 Midwest 1.02

 Northeast 0.94

 West 0.94*

Reimprisoned after 2010 release

 No (omitted)

 Yes 0.41***

Sample size 451000

Deceased within 5 years of release 17000

Pseudo R-Square 0.0766

Characteristics

*p<.05, **p<.01, ***p<.001

Table approved for release by the Census Bureau's Disclosure Review Board, CBDRB-FY21-123 and CBDRB-FY22- CES014-004.

Source: 1983-2016 National Corrections Reporting Program, 2019 Census Numident, and Previous Census Data. Note: All counts 

are rounded to be in compliance with the Census Bureau's disclosure avoidance policies.

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Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMRs)

• Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) express the ratio of deaths in 

the study relative to expected deaths in the general population

• If an SMR is greater than 1, it means that mortality rates are elevated 

relative to the general population. 

SSSSSS =

DDDDDDDDDDD iiii SS SSSSSS

EE DDDDDDDDDDD iiii SS SSSSSS dd dddddd dd ]
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• SMRs are above one for all groups, 

meaning they are elevated relative to 

the general population. 

• Within each sex, SMRs are the lowest 

for non-Hispanic blacks and the highest 

for the non-Hispanic other grouping

• Within each group, the SMRs for 

women are higher than they are for 

men. 

SMRs – Race & Sex

Approved for release by the Census Bureau's Disclosure Review Board, CBDRB-FY21-123. 

Source: 1983-2016 National Corrections Reporting Program, 2019 Census Numident, Previous Census Data 

and national and state mortality rates obtained from the CDC Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic 

Research (CDC-WONDER) for years 2010-2015
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• SMRs for women are higher than for 

men at all age groups, other than for 

those who are 65+ when released

• SMRs generally decline with the age at 

release for both sexes

• For those under 65, mortality rates are 

at least twice as high as they are for the 

general population. Mortality rates are 

the most elevated for 25-34 year old 

women and are nearly 7 times as high 

as they are in the general population. 

SMRs – Age & Sex

Approved for release by the Census Bureau's Disclosure Review Board, CBDRB-FY21-123. 

Source: 1983-2016 National Corrections Reporting Program, 2019 Census Numident, Previous Census Data 

and national and state mortality rates obtained from the CDC Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic 

Research (CDC-WONDER) for years 2010-2015
Conclusion & Next Steps

• Mortality in the sample of prisoners released in 2010 in 35 states is 

elevated relative to the general population 

• Mortality rates are highest the first month after release

• Though they have lower mortality rates, women’s mortality is more 

highly elevated relative to the general population than for men

• Non-Hispanic whites have the highest mortality rates, while mortality is 

most elevated for the non-Hispanic all other races grouping relative to 

the general population

• Next Steps:

• Analyzing cause of death information from National Death Index for the 2010 

cohort of released prisoners in this study 

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