Session K-5: Seize the Data: Program Oversight, Policy Recommendations, and Insights from 

Using Linked Survey and Administrative Data

Longevity Disparity across Communities in the United States

Lijia Guo*, Ph.D., ASA, MAAA

Government Accountability Office

*The opinions expressed and conclusions reached by the author are her own and do not 

represent any official position or opinion of the US Government Accountability Office.

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Presentation Overview

•Background

•Data

•Method

•Findings

•Discussion

•Summary/Takeaway

•References

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Background

• Socioeconomic disparities in longevity have been documented

• SOA (Barbieri, 2021, 2022) work on longevity differences by the socioeconomic 

index at the state and county level

• Crairns, etc. 2019 looked small area mortality in England and developed a Longevity 

Index for England that focuses on mortality and uses a range of predictive variables 

to explain the differences in mortality and life expectancy between small 

neighborhoods

• Boing, etc. 2020 studied life expectancy disparity across states, counties, and census 

tracts and found that more than three-fourths of the total variation in life 

expectancy is attributable to census tracts

• This study examined the longevity inequality across US census tracts using publically 

available data.

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Data – Government Agency Data

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• The U.S. Small-area Life Expectancy Estimates Project (USALEEP) from 

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) - estimates of life 

expectancy at birth for most of the census tracts in the United States, 

and abridged period life tables for 2010-2015, available from: 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/usaleep/usaleep.html 

• American Community Survey (ACS) from US Census - premier data 

source for detailed population and housing information, including 

demographics, education, homeownership, median family income, etc., 

available from Census: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs
Publically Available Data – Social Vulnerability Index

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• Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) - CDC and Agency for Toxic Substances 

and Disease Registry (ATSDR) (available from: 

https://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/placeandhealth/svi/index.html) - a 

composite score of the following four sub indexes measuring different 

aspects of social vulnerability

• Socioeconomic - SVI_THEME1

• Household Composition & Disability - SVI_THEME2

• Minority Status & Language - SVI_THEME3, and

• Housing Type & Transportation theme- SVI_THEME4.

• Most recent release: CDC/ASTDR SVI 2020 update in October 2022

• Widely used by public health professionals in health equity work 
Publically Available Measures - National Risk Index 

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• National Risk Index (NRI) - Federal Emergency Management Agency 

(FEMA) (available from https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/learn-more ) 

• Risk assessment for 18 natural disasters such as

• Flooding (Riverine and coastal); Hurricane; Wildfire; Earthquake

• Expected annual loss based on exposures, annual frequency, and 

historical loss ratio

• Social vulnerability (SOVI Score)

• Community resilience (Resilience Score)

• Risk Assessment: 

• Risk Scores and Ratings
Longevity in the United State

• Life expectancy is one of the key 

measures of the health status of a 

population

• Life expectancies reflect the average 

experience of the population subset

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US Life Expectancy 

at age 25, 2021*

US Life Expectancy 

at age 65, 2021*

*SOA Research Report, October 2021

- CDC data: Centers for Disease Control and 

Prevention Period Life Tables, Table A 

- SSA data: Social Security Administration 

Period Life Table

- the impact of COVID-19 not reflected

** Generationally projected to 2021 and beyond 

with MP-2021; 
Methodology/Analysis

• How longevity varies by local communities (census tract) in US? 

• What are the socioeconomic and other community characteristics associated with 

longevity disparity across US communities and how the associations changes as people 

aging? 

Measuring community 

vulnerability and resilience

- NRI social vulnerability score

- SVI sub-indexes

- Community resilience indicators 

from ACS

Measuring community natural disaster 

risk (NRI)

- Risk Score 

- Exposure, expected annual loss

- Historical loss ratio

- Resilience score

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Methodology/Analysis

• linked life expectancy estimates to the ACS community socioeconomic and 

demographic data, the CDC SVI data, and FEMA community risk of natural 

disasters

• Developed generalized linear models that identified associations of 

community risks, socioeconomic and demographic factors with the life 

expectancy while accounting for other census tract characteristics. 

• The models are developed at the census tract level which reflects the 

community characteristics more specifically.

• Statistical significance was assessed at the 0.05 level

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Findings – Longevity for New Born Varies by Community

• Areas with higher social vulnerability 

tend to have lower life expectancy at 

birth, when control all other factors

• Communities with higher risks of 

natural disasters had lower life 

expectancy at birth than communities 

with lower risks of natural disasters

• The longevity inequality also linked to 

the community demographic 

characteristics such as gender and race 

as well

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Findings – Longevity as People Aging

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• Higher longevity risks are 

associated with higher level of 

social vulnerability before 

retirement

• The correlations of 

socioeconomic factors to life 

expectation decrease as people 

aging

• longevity for people at advanced 

age with higher income/wealth 

is due to cumulated effects of 

high income/wealth before 

retirement
Findings – Gender and Race Effect

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• GLM model analyzed the effects 

of age, gender, race, and 

community social vulnerability 

on longevity

• Communities with higher 

percentage of women residents 

had higher life expectancy for all 

age groups when control all 

other factors.

• Communities with higher 

percentage of African Americans 

residents had lower life 

expectancy for all ages.

Effects for Estimating Life Expectancy by Age Group (2010 - 2015)

Explanatory Variable Parameter 

Estimate

Standard 

Error t Value p Value

Intercept 11.644 0.0628 185.49 <.0001

Age Group 0 - 1 70.949 0.0191 3718.2 <.0001

Age Group 1 - 4 70.580 0.0191 3698.85 <.0001

Age Group 5 - 14 66.704 0.0191 3495.74 <.0001

Age Group 15-24 56.833 0.0191 2978.42 <.0001

Age Group 25-34 47.359 0.0191 2481.92 <.0001

Age Group 35-44 38.007 0.0191 1991.84 <.0001

Age Group 45-54 28.789 0.0191 1508.72 <.0001

Age Group 55-64 20.161 0.0191 1056.55 <.0001

Age Group 65-74 12.259 0.0191 642.45 <.0001

Age Group 75-84 5.306 0.0191 278.05 <.0001

Percent of Female 0.072 0.0011 63.93 <.0001

Percent of African American -0.046 0.0002 -251.2 <.0001

Social Vulnerability Score -0.235 0.0011 -215.92 <.0001
Discussion

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• Rural/Urban

• Longevity risk is higher for 

communities in the rural area, as 

indicated by explanatory variable 

Number of Households.

• Climate Change

• Associations of the FEMA risk 

score to the longevity risk indicate 

the climate change to the 

longevity inequality across the 

country. 

• COVID-19

• Socioeconomic disparity in Covid- 19 related mortality might have 

only worsened longevity 

inequality.

• Limitations

Effects for Estimating Life Expectancy by Age Group (2010 - 2015)

Explanatory Variable Parameter 

Estimate

Standard 

Error t Value p Value

Intercept 11.644 0.0628 185.49 <.0001

Age Group 0 - 1 70.949 0.0191 3718.2 <.0001

Age Group 1 - 4 70.580 0.0191 3698.85 <.0001

Age Group 5 - 14 66.704 0.0191 3495.74 <.0001

Age Group 15-24 56.833 0.0191 2978.42 <.0001

Age Group 25-34 47.359 0.0191 2481.92 <.0001

Age Group 35-44 38.007 0.0191 1991.84 <.0001

Age Group 45-54 28.789 0.0191 1508.72 <.0001

Age Group 55-64 20.161 0.0191 1056.55 <.0001

Age Group 65-74 12.259 0.0191 642.45 <.0001

Age Group 75-84 5.306 0.0191 278.05 <.0001

Percent of Female 0.072 0.0011 63.93 <.0001

Percent of African American -0.046 0.0002 -251.2 <.0001

Social Vulnerability Score -0.235 0.0011 -215.92 <.0001
Summary/Takeaways

•US residents in communities with lower social vulnerability have 

experienced larger gains in life expectancy than those live in socially 

vulnerable communities

•Risks to natural disasters had negative impact on longevity for people in 

the community. 

•Socioeconomic factors have stronger association to longevity at younger 

ages

•Use of publically available data for community characteristics at census 

tract can provide more insights on longevity disparities

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References (Selected)

• Barbieri, M. (2021) Interstate Variations in Mortality in the United States, 1959-2018, Society of 

Actuaries. 

• Barbieri, M. (2022), Mortality by Socioeconomic Category in the United States, Society of 

Actuaries.

• Boing, A.C., Cordes, J., Kim, R., and Subramanian, S.V. (2020) Quantifying and explaining 

variation in life expectancy at census tract, county, and state levels in the United States, 

February 26, 2020

• Cairns, A. J., Kallestrup-Lamb, M., Rosenskjold, C., Blake, D., and Dowd, K. (2019). Modelling 

socio- economic differences in mortality using a new affluence index. ASTIN Bulletin: The 

Journal of the IAA, pages 1–36.

• Society Of Actuaries Research Report, Life Expectancy Comparison in 2021, Society of 

Actuaries, October 2021.

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