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What Does National Data Tell Us About 

Early Reading Development?

Early Reading Skill Development and Characteristics of Reading Skill Profiles

B. Jasmine Park, Senior Researcher

Xiaying Zheng, Yuan Zhang

FCSM| October 26, 2023
| AIR.ORG

Purpose of the Study

• Explore the importance of early reading development for future academic success

• Opportunity to link two national large-scale datasets to further examine how early 

reading skills are related to grade 4 NAEP reading assessment performance

• Research Questions: 

– Do distinct patterns of reading growth exist?

– If so, how are these related to students’ contextual information?

– How are early reading growth development patterns related to students’ 

performance on the NAEP grade 4 reading assessments?

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Data Source

• Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 2010-11 (ECLS-K:2011)

• One-on-one assessments of cognitive skills and knowledge

• Overall reading score is based on measures of a variety of reading skills

– Phonemic awareness; Beginning & ending sound; Rhyming words

– Letter recognition; Print familiarity

– Phonics; Word recognition and sight words

– Vocabulary

– Comprehension 

• Scores are calculated using IRT and are vertically scaled.

• Contextual questionnaires administered to parents, teachers, and school administrators

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Final Model for Piecewise Latent Growth Curve Model

4

Intercept 

(ππ0ii)

Slope 1 

(ππ1ii)

(GK-1)

Slope 2

(ππ2ii)

(G2)

Slope 3

(ππ3ii)

(G3)

Fall K Spring K Fall G1 Spring 

G1

Fall G2 Spring 

G2

Spring 

G3

S1 S2

yyiiii = αα + ππ0ii + ππ1ii × TTTTTTeet + ππ2ii × TTTTTTeet + ππ3ii × TTTTTTeet + εεiiii

αα is constrained 

to be 0 except 

for Fall G1 & 

Fall G2.
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53

66

75

91

96

104

108

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Fall K Spring K Fall G1 Spring G1 Fall G2 Spring G2 Spring G3

ECLS-K: 2011 Reading Score

Reading Growth from Kindergarten to Grade 3

Piecewise Latent Growth Model Results

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SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 2010-11 (ECLS-K:2011), Kindergarten–Third Grade Restricted-Use Data File.
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Growth Mixture Model Results: Growth Trajectories

83

93

105

112 113

117

122

58

74

93

106 107

113

118

50

64

70

92

98

105

112

48

57

63

76

79

93

104

41

48

54

62

67

72

83

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

FALL K SPRING K FALL 1ST SPRING 1ST FALL 2ND SPRING 2ND SPRING 3RD

ECLS-K: 2011 READING SCORE

Class 1 High Performers (5%) Class 2 Early Boosters (20%) Class 3 Average Learners (52%)

Class 4 Steady but Slow Learners (20%) Class 5 Struggling Learners (3%)

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 2010-11 (ECLS-K:2011), Kindergarten–Third Grade Restricted-Use Data File.
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Linking the ECLS-K:2011 & 2015 NAEP Reading Data

1. Linking the ECLS-K:2011 and 2015 NAEP reading assessment data using the overlap sample 

(approximately 600 students)

• Unconditional two-dimensional IRT model (corresponds to two NAEP reading subscales) was 

fitted to 2015 NAEP grade 4 reading item response data using the NAEP operational item 

parameter estimates

• Seven covariates (student characteristics from ECLS-K:2011) were added to the IRT model to 

predict two latent subscales

• Using the parameters from the previous step, the two latent subscale scores were estimated 

for the ECLS-K:2011 non-overlap sample

2. Projected NAEP reading scores were compared across latent classes to examine the 

relationship between reading development patterns and NAEP reading performance

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Projection Model

Using the ECLS-K:2011 and 2015 NAEP overlap sample

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... ...

Literary Informational

SES Sex Race NSLP SD ELL ECLS-K

G4 

Reading

Informational Cognitive 

Items

Literary Cognitive Items

R-square=0.76 R-square=0.73
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Average Projected NAEP Reading Score by Latent Class

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255 244 223 198 138

NAEP Basic (208)

NAEP Proficient (238)

NAEP Advanced (268)

0

100

200

300

High Performers Early Boosters Average Learners Steady but Slow

Learners

Struggling Learners

NAEP Reading Score

Average projected NAEP reading scores for each class are 

significantly different, p < .05. 

NOTE: NAEP grade 4 reading assessment score ranges from 0-500. 
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Understanding NAEP Achievement Levels

• NAEP Proficient: Represents solid academic performance for each NAEP assessment. 

Students reaching this level have demonstrated competency over challenging subject 

matter, including subject-matter knowledge, application of such knowledge to real world 

situations, and analytical skills appropriate to the subject matter

• NAEP Basic: Denotes partial mastery of prerequisite knowledge and skills that are 

fundamental for performance at the NAEP Proficient level

• More information about NAEP Achievement Levels: NAEP Item Maps

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Reading Growth Trajectory Patterns & NAEP Reading Achievement 

Levels

2015 G4 

National Public 

(%)

High 

Performers

(%)

Early Boosters

(%)

Average 

Learners

(%)

Steady but 

Slow Learners

(%)

Struggling 

Learners

(%)

Below NAEP Basic 32 3! 10! 30 64 95

At NAEP Basic 33 18! 28 40 29 5!

At NAEP Proficient 27 51 43 25 7! 0

At NAEP Advanced 8 28 18 6 0 0

! Interpret data with caution.

NOTE: Columns add up to totals. Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 2010-11 (ECLS-K:2011), Kindergarten–Third 

Grade Restricted-Use Data File & National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), 2015 Grade 4 Reading Assessment.

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• One out of three “Average Learners” are projected to perform at NAEP Proficient or above.

• Almost all “High Performers” (8 out of 10) and “Early Boosters” (6 out of 10) are projected to perform at NAEP 

Proficient or above.

• Almost all “Steady but Slow Learners” (6 out of 10) and “Struggling Learners” (9 out of 10) are expected to perform 

below NAEP Basic. 
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Making Progress, but is it Enough?

12

50

64

70

92

98

105

112

48

57

63

76

79

93

104

41

48

54

62

67

72

83

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

FALL K SPRING K FALL 1ST SPRING 1ST FALL 2ND SPRING 2ND SPRING 3RD

Class 3 Average Learners (52%) Class 4 Steady but Slow Learners (20%) Class 5 Struggling Learners (3%)

3-point difference 

(0.3 SD) between 

Average Learners and 

Steady but Slow 

Learners

8-point difference (0.7 

SD) difference between 

Average Learners & 

Steady but Slow 

Learners

9-point difference 

(0.8 SD) between 

Average Learners and 

Struggling Learners

29-point difference 

(2.4 SD) between 

Average Learners and 

Struggling Learners

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 2010-11 (ECLS-K:2011), Kindergarten–Third Grade Restricted-Use Data File.
| AIR.ORG

What Students Can Do

• “Steady but Slow Learners (SSL)” and “Struggling Learners (SL)” are more likely to begin 

kindergarten with much fewer foundational reading skills. 

– About half of SSL and 80% SL did not have a mastery of alphabetic principles, while 

other students did at the beginning of kindergarten

• By the end of first grade, most students acquired foundational reading skills, but 

“Struggling Learners” demonstrated challenges with phonological awareness.

• By the end of second grade, almost all students seemed to show mastery of 

foundational skills necessary for decoding.

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Teachers’ Reporting of Instructional Practices

• No differences in most instruction-related variables regardless of students’ reading development 

patterns or EL status 

• Some differences observed in the spring of kindergarten & first grade

– Kindergarten:

» Reading aloud and reading books of their own choice as a class activity: Higher for 

“Average Learners”

» Discussing new or difficult vocabulary and retelling stories: Higher for “Steady but Slow 

Learners” and “Struggling Learners”

– First Grade

» Teaching comprehension strategies: Higher for “Average Learners”

» Teaching phonics and word recognition: Higher for “Steady but Slow Learners” and 

“Struggling Learners”

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What Did We Learn about Early Reading Development?

• Nationally, data show that all children gain reading skills over time; however, not 

everyone makes adequate growth in reading, which widens the reading skill gap.

• Mastering foundational reading skills in early grades is important, and most students, 

including English learners, seem to acquire sufficient foundational reading skills by the 

end of second grade.

• Building strong foundational reading skills is important but not sufficient for students’ 

overall reading and literacy development.

• For full paper: https://www.air.org/resource/report/early-reading-skill-developmentand-characteristics-reading-skill-profiles-analysis

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B. Jasmine Park

Senior Researcher

202.403.5704

bpark@air.org