Internal Migration in the U.S. 

During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Thomas B. Foster, U.S. Census Bureau

Mark Ellis and Lee Fiorio, University of Washington

October 25, 2022

1

Disclaimer: Any opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not represent the views of the U.S. 

Census Bureau. The Census Bureau has reviewed this data product for unauthorized disclosure of confidential information and 

has approved the disclosure avoidance practices applied to this release. DRB Approval Number: CBDRB-FY2022-CES005-018.
2

CPS-ASEC mover rates 

from the pandemic period 

see continuation of 

decades-long trend:

• 9.8% in 2019

• 9.3% in 2020

• 8.4% in 2021

Survey-derived 

mobility rates 

continue to fall

Source: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/03/united-states-migration-continued-decline-from-2020-to2021.html
3

But media narratives 

suggest pandemic 

surge in migration 

and residential 

mobility...

Sources: The New York Times; Pew Research Center; MyMove.com; AllConnect.com. See also Brown and Tousey (2021) 

and Whitaker (2021 a,b) who use Equifax Consumer Credit Panel data, and Coven, Gupta, and Yao (2020) who use 

Facebook friendship data to study pandemic migration spikes.
Motivation and Goals

• Did migration increase or decrease during the pandemic?

• When? For whom? To what extent?

• Answer these questions using timely administrative data from the 

United States Postal Service (USPS) detailing changes of address

• Linked with data from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the Social 

Security Administration (SSA)

• Where does the gap between survey migration measures and the 

prevailing media narrative originate?

• Compare individual address changes with responses to Census Bureau Survey 

migration responses

4
Data

• USPS National Change of Address Registry (NCOA, 2019 – 2021)

• SSA Numerical Identification Database (Numident 2022; Age)

• IRS 1040s (TY2020; Adjusted Gross Income)

• ACS (2020) and CPS-ASEC (2020, 2021)

• Linked using Protected Identification Keys (PIKs)* 

• Note that not all individuals in NCOA can be successfully assigned a PIK and, 

therefore, cannot be linked to the Numident, 1040s, ACS, or CPS-ASEC

• PIK rates increase over the 2019-2021 period

• Weight PIKed observations in month/year, origin/destination, 

family/individual move bins such that their sum equals the sum of all NCOA 

observations 

5

*Wagner and Layne. 2014. “The Person Identification Validation System (PVS): Applying the Center for Administrative 

Records Research and Applications’ (CARRA) Record Linkage Software.” U.S. Census Bureau, CARRA Working Paper Series 

#2014-01.
Address changes increased, but not by much...

6

• Both temporary and permanent 

changes of address increased in 2020...

• But, 2021 saw fewer of both relative to 

2019.

• A 2% increase in 2020...

• 38% of that increase is attributable to 

increase repeat address changes.

• This rise in repeat moves continued 

through 2021 despite drop in total moves.

• Counts on par with CPS-ASEC total 

mover counts...

• But, NCOA family moves only count one 

person per household.

Source: Weighted PIKed NCOA observations (2019-2021); CBDRB-FY22-CES005-018. 
Sharper 2020 increases in Changes of Address among 

temporary, individual, and longer-distance moves

7

1.02

1.06

1.02

1.05

0.95 0.98

1.07

1.06

0.99

0.95

0.99

1.02

0.92 0.93

1.05

1.09

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

NCOA Filings (Relative to 2019)

NCOA Filing Details

20202021

Source: Weighted PIKed NCOA observations (2019-2021); CBDRB-FY22-CES005-018. 
Peaks in March 2020 and a shift in scale

8

2.20

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Month

1.24

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Month

2.57

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

2.4

2.6

1.18

1.29

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.11

2020

2021

Source: Weighted PIKed NCOA observations (2019-2021) linked with Census Numident (2022); CBDRB-FY22-CES005-018.

Note: Y-axes are consistent within scale/distance categories, but not across them. 

NCOA Filings (Relative to 2019)

Temporary Permanent

Intracounty

Intrastate

Interstate
Increases concentrated among younger movers

9

0.93

0.89 0.89

0.75

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Under 25 25 to 44 45 to 64 65 to 84 85+

Temporary NCOA Filings (Relative to 2019)

Age

0.92 0.88

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Under 25 25 to 44 45 to 64 65 to 84 85+

Permanent NCOA Filings (Relative to 2019)

Age

Temporary Permanent

2020

2021

2020

2021

Source: Weighted PIKed NCOA observations (2019-2021) linked with Census Numident (2022); CBDRB-FY22-CES005-018. 
0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Permanent NCOA Filings (Relative to 2019)

Month

Under 25

25 to 44

45 to 64

65 to 84

85+

Young particularly likely to move at pandemic’s start

10

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Temporary NCOA Filings (Relative to 2019)

Month

Source: Weighted PIKed NCOA observations (2019-2020) linked with Census Numident (2022); CBDRB-FY22-CES005-018.

Note: Y-axes for temporary and permanent changes of address differ, and only 2020 trends are shown.

Temporary Permanent
2020 increases most pronounced among top earners

11

0.99

0.95

0.97

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Permanent NCOA Filings (Relative to 2019)

TY 2020 AGI Decile (Age-Adjusted Rank)

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Temporary NCOA Filings (Relative to 2019)

TY 2020 AGI Decile (Age-Adjusted Rank)

20202021

Source: Weighted PIKed NCOA observations (2019-2021) linked with Census Numident (2022) and IRS 1040s (TY 2020); 

CBDRB-FY22-CES005-018. Note: Y-axes for temporary and permanent changes of address differ. 2020 2021

Temporary Permanent
Top earners postponed permanent moves in 2020

12

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Permanent NCOA Filings (relative to 2019)

Month

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Temporary NCOA Filings (relative to 2019)

Month

1st Decile

5th Decile

10th Decile

Temporary Permanent

Source: Weighted PIKed NCOA observations (2019-2020) linked with Census Numident (2022) and IRS 1040s (TY 2020); CBDRB-FY22-CES005-

018. Note: Y-axes for temporary and permanent changes of address differ, and only 2020 trends are shown. 
How do we explain the gap?

13

Sources: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/03/united-states-migration-continued-decline-from-2020-to2021.html; Weighted PIKed NCOA observations (2019-2020) linked with Census Numident (2022); CBDRB-FY22-CES005-

018. 
(Dis)Agreement between address changes and 

survey responses

• ACS and CPS-ASEC 

householders with 

unedited migration 

responses

• Look for permanent

NCOA filings in the 1-

year period referenced in 

survey responses

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Given survey move, 

did you register an 

address change?

Given address change 

registered, did you 

move in...?

ACS (2020) 52.9% 67.2%*

CPS-ASEC (2020) 54.7% 27.3%

CPS-ASEC (2021) 57.1% 27.8%

*Foster, Ellis, and Fiorio. 2018. “The Opportunities and Challenges of Linked IRS Administrative and Census Survey Records in the Study of 

Migration.” CARRA-WP-2018-06. https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/working-papers/2018/adrm/carra-wp-2018-06.pdf. 

Source: PIKed, permanent NCOA observations (2019-2020) linked with ACS (2020) and CPS-ASEC (2020-2021) householders with unedited 

migration responses; CBDRB-FY22-CES005-018. 
Conclusions

• NCOA data suggest a 2% increase in migration in 2020, largely 

restricted to younger individuals, top earners, and longer-distance 

moves

• Migration decline followed in 2021, but shift toward longer distance 

moves made by younger individuals continued

• Broadly, findings corroborate the popular narrative, but future work 

should focus on geographic shifts

• Gap between CPS-ASEC and NCOA remains unclear, but individuallevel disagreement in these sources is next on our agenda

15
Thank you!

Brad Foster

Senior Sociologist

U.S. Census Bureau

thomas.b.foster@census.gov

Lee Fiorio

PhD Candidate, Geography

University of Washington

Mark Ellis

Professor of Geography

University of Washington

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Supplemental Slides

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18

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

AIAN Asian Black Hispanic Missing White

Temporary NCOA Filings (Relative to 2019)

Numident Race/Ethnicity

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

AIAN Asian Black Hispanic Missing White

Permanent NCOA Filings (Relative to 2019)

Numident Race/Ethnicity

Temporary Permanent

2020 increase common to all racial/ethnic groups 2020 2021 2020 2021

Source: Weighted PIKed NCOA observations (2019-2021) linked with Census Numident (2022); CBDRB-FY22-CES005-018.