The impacts of rent burden and 

eviction on all-cause mortality in the 

United States 

Nick Graetz1, Emily Lemmerman1, Carl Gershenson1, Sonya R. Porter2, 

Danielle H. Sandler2, Matthew Desmond1

1Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA

2U.S. Census Bureau, Washington D.C., USA

October 25, 2022

DISCLAIMER: Any opinions and conclusions 

expressed herein are those of the authors and 

do not represent the views of the U.S. Census 

Bureau. The Census Bureau has reviewed this 

data product for unauthorized disclosure of 

confidential information and has approved the 

disclosure avoidance practices applied to this 

release. DRB Approval Number(s):

CBDRB-FY22-CES004-051.
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Research questions

1. What are the associations between levels/increases in rent 

burden and all-cause mortality?

• Cox proportional hazards models

2. What are the associations between eviction (filings, 

judgements) and all-cause mortality by age?

• Discrete time hazards models

3. Are there heterogenous associations between eviction and 

mortality by race-sex or eviction propensity?

• Discrete time hazards models

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Baseline data: 2000 long-form Census

Modifiers of associations:

• Race (white, Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI)

• Ethnicity (Hispanic/non-Hispanic)

• Sex (men, women)

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Controls:

• Household income (continuous)

• Nativity (0/1)

• Living in the same place five years ago 

(0/1)

• Veteran status (0/1)

• Disability status (0/1)

• Unemployed (0/1)

• Educational attainment (less than high 

school, high school, some college, 

college or more)

• Household gross rent as a percentage 

of household income (0-100)

• Residential building size (single-unit, 

mobile single-unit, 2, 3-4, 5-9, 10-19, 

20-49, 50 or more units)

• Number of bedrooms (continuous)

• Number of children (continuous)

• Marital status (0/1)
Outcome data: Death records, 2000-2019

• Numident (Social Security)

• Only SSN-holders

• First-party reports of death from 

family members

• Verified third-party reports:

• Friends

• State government offices

• The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid 

Services

• The Department of Veterans Affairs

• The Internal Revenue Service

• Benefits of Numident

• Tracks SSN-holders outside US

• Backbone of the Census Person 

Identification Validation System 

(PVS)

Finlay, K. & Genadek, K. (2021). Measuring All-Cause Mortality with the Census Numident File.

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Exposure data: Eviction records, 2000-2016

• 2000-2016 court records (58 

million)

• Limited information about each 

case

• Case numbers

• Names of plaintiffs (e.g., 

landlords, property managers) 

and defendants (tenants)

• Defendant addresses

• Filing dates

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Linked records

Note: Census Disclosure Review Board Approval Number: CBDRB-FY22-CES004-051. 8

Sample sizes are rounded according to Census disclosure policy. 
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Note: Census Disclosure Review Board Approval Number: 

CBDRB-FY22-CES004-051. 

Sample sizes are rounded according to Census disclosure policy. 
10

Note: Census Disclosure Review Board Approval Number: 

CBDRB-FY22-CES004-051. 

Sample sizes are rounded according to Census disclosure policy. 
11

Note: Census Disclosure Review Board Approval Number: 

CBDRB-FY22-CES004-051. 

Sample sizes are rounded according to Census disclosure policy. 
12

Note: Census Disclosure Review Board Approval Number: 

CBDRB-FY22-CES004-051. 

Sample sizes are rounded according to Census disclosure policy. 
13

Note: Census Disclosure Review Board Approval Number: 

CBDRB-FY22-CES004-051. 

Sample sizes are rounded according to Census disclosure policy. 
14

Note: Census Disclosure Review Board Approval Number: 

CBDRB-FY22-CES004-051. 

Sample sizes are rounded according to Census disclosure policy. 
Note: Census Disclosure Review Board Approval Number: CBDRB-FY22-CES004-051. 15

Source: 2000 Census. 

Rent burden by poverty and race-sex (2000)
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There is a steep increase in 

mortality risk between 

20% and 70% burden, but 

risk levels off above 70%

A 50% burden was 

associated with 7.05% 

(6.35-7.75%) higher 

mortality from 2000-2019 

compared to a 30% burden

For a 70% burden, the 

increase was 9.85% (8.90-

10.85%)

Note: Census Disclosure Review Board Approval Number: CBDRB-FY22-CES004-051. 

Source: 2000 Census. 

Association between rent burden (2000) and 

mortality (2000-2019)
Note: Census Disclosure Review Board Approval Number: CBDRB-FY22-CES004-051. 17

Sources: 2000 Census linked to 2008-2012 American Community Survey. 

Rent burden change by race-sex (2000 to 

2008-2012) 
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A 10-point increase in rent 

burden was associated 

with 7.95% (5.65-10.35%) 

higher mortality compared 

to no increase in rent 

burden

For a 20-point increase in 

rent burden, mortality 

increased 16.30% (12.90-

19.75%)

Association between rent burden change (2000 to 

2008-2012) and mortality (2008-2012 to 2019)

Note: Census Disclosure Review Board Approval Number: CBDRB-FY22-CES004-051. 

Sources: 2000 Census linked to 2008-2012 American Community and 2021 Numident file.
Eviction cohorts

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Follow three cohorts 

covering life course: aged 

30-34, 50-54, 70-74 in 

2000

Discrete time hazards 

model

Test for time-varying 

hazards and time since 

eviction exposure
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Eviction filing without judgement (age 30-50): 20.80% (13.40-28.60%) increase

Eviction judgement (age 30-50): 38.50% (32.20-45.20%) increase

Note: Census Disclosure Review Board Approval Number: CBDRB-FY22-CES004-051. 

Sources: 2000 Census linked to 2021 Numident file and 2000-2016 eviction records. 

Association between eviction and mortality 

(2000-2016)
Limitations

• Eviction data

• Incomplete PIK assignment (we assume unmatched are not systematically 

different)

• Incomplete national coverage

• No information on informal evictions

• Mortality data in Numident

• Only SSN holders

• No information on cause-of-death

• Time-varying characteristics measured once at 2000 baseline

• We don’t observe transitions to homeownership (makes our estimates 

conservative)

• We don’t observe events leading up to eviction (risk of unobserved 

confounding)

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Summary

• Higher levels of rent burden associated with higher mortality

• 50% and 70% burden = roughly 7% and 10% higher mortality than 30% burden

• Within-household increases in rent burden associated with 

higher mortality

• 10- and 20-point increases = roughly 8% and 16% increases in mortality

• Eviction filings and judgements associated with higher mortality

• Filings and judgements = roughly 20% and 40% increases in mortality

• Evidence of higher associations among lower propensity

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Prevalent exposures

• Since 1985, rent prices have exceeded income gains by 325%

• Nationwide, median asking rent more than doubled over the last two 

decades, rising from $483 in 2000 to $1,216 in 2021

• In 2021, nationwide median asking rent increased by 17%, the fastest 

single-year increase on record

• The number of eviction filings increased by 21.5% between 2000 and 

2018, rising from 3,009,832 to 3,656,428 cases

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EXTRA SLIDES

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Note: Census Disclosure Review Board 

Approval Number: CBDRB-FY22-CES004-051. 

Source: 2000 Census. 
Note: Census Disclosure Review Board Approval Number: CBDRB

-FY22-CES004-051. 26

Sources: 2000 Census linked to 2021 Numident file and 2000-2016 eviction records. 
Associations by propensity to be evicted

• Model propensity to be evicted and then stratify survival model by 

propensity strata

• Brand & Xie (2010): Heterogenous treatment effects of educational attainment 

on economic returns. American Sociological Review 75(2); 273-302

• Brand et al. (2019): Parental divorce is not uniformly disruptive to children’s 

educational attainment. PNAS 116(15); 7266-7271

• Aquino, Brand, Torche (2022). Unequal effects of disruptive events. Sociology 

Compass 16(4); 1-16

• Step 1: model propensity using logistic regression (similar with 

GBM, BART)

• Step 2: survival model stratified by propensity groups

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Associations by propensity to be evicted

• Eviction among renters most likely to be evicted: 21.80% (14.50-

29.60%) increase in mortality

• Much larger associations among renters least likely to be evicted

• Implications for racial disparities: most evictions happen to 

Black renters, but Black renters have much higher baseline 

mortality because they have a much different profile (income, 

education, rent burden) than white renters 

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Work in progress

• Other working papers

• Demographics of eviction in the United States

• Descriptive study focused on households affected by eviction (e.g., children)

• Excess mortality associated with COVID-19 for renters threatened 

with eviction

• Excess mortality framework

• The historical and contemporary role of housing in maintaining the 

Black-white mortality gap

• Decomposition framework

• Other Eviction Lab-Census Collaborations

• Study the relationship between evictions, employment, and earnings

• Generational linkage: 1940 Census to 2000 Census, including contextual 

characteristics (e.g., HOLC redlining maps)

• Alexander, J. T., Leibbrand, C., Massey, C., Tolnay, S. (2017). Second-Generation 

Outcomes of the Great Migration. Demography 54: 2249-2271.

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