AMERICAN INSTITUTES FOR RESEARCH® | AIR.ORG

College Preparedness Benchmarks for the Grade 

12 NAEP Mathematics Assessment

FCSM Research and Policy Conference | October 2023

Copyright © 2023 American Institutes for Research®. All rights reserved.

Burhan Ogut| George Bohrnstedt | Markus Broer
| AIR.ORG

College Preparedness

• Growing interest in ensuring that students are prepared for college and a 

career when they finish high school

• Prior research identified school attendance, GPA, test scores, and college 

entry exams as important predictors

• Where does NAEP fit in?

– Assesses what students know and can do in the Nation

–NAEP is in a unique position to inform whether students are prepared 

for college

2
| AIR.ORG

Prior Studies

• Studies commissioned by the National Assessment Governing Board (NAGB) 

indicate that NAEP can in fact be used to predict college preparedness (Fields, 

2014)

– Defined as being ready to enroll in postsecondary education without remedial 

coursework and succeed in entry-level, credit-bearing college courses

» Earning 2.67 (B-) or better GPA at the end of the first year of college

– In 2019, 37 percent of the 12th-grade students who took mathematics or 

reading assessments met the college preparedness benchmark

– Data used only from Florida

– Students who attended out-of-state or nonpublic colleges in Florida could not 

be followed 

3
| AIR.ORG

Purpose

• Determine how college preparedness measures that include college GPA 

relate to NAEP achievement levels (as well as to the NAEP preparedness 

indicator) in order to

• Contribute to the discussion about appropriate national benchmarks for 

tracking the college preparedness of the nation’s students

• Provide critical validity evidence for NAEP’s achievement levels 

4
| AIR.ORG

College Preparedness

• Measured in several ways

– Enrolled without remediation

– Enrolled without remediation with a first-year college GPA or 2.7 or 

higher and

– Enrolled in a 2-or 4-year college with a first-year college GPA or 2.7 or 

higher.

5
| AIR.ORG

Research Question

• What is the relationship between performance on the grade 12 NAEP 

mathematics assessment and college preparedness? 

–What is the probability of preparedness for students scoring at the 

NAEP Advanced, Proficient, and Basic levels on the grade 12 

mathematics assessment?

–What is the probability of preparedness for students scoring at NAEP’s 

college and career preparedness indicator point on the grade 12 

mathematics assessment?

–What is the probability of preparedness for students performing below 

the NAEP Basic level on the grade 12 mathematics assessment?

6
| AIR.ORG

Methods

7
| AIR.ORG

Data

• High School Longitudinal Study

– Base year 2009-10 (9th grade)

– First follow up 2011-12 (11th grade)

– Second Follow up 2016

– Postsecondary Transcripts (2017-18)

• Two subsets

– An overlap sample of students of HSLS that also took 2013 NAEP grade 12 

mathematics assessment (About 3500 students) 

– All HSLS students for whom NAEP scores could be imputed (about 12000 

students)

8
| AIR.ORG

Method

• Twenty NAEP plausible value scale scores are imputed for students in 

HSLS:09, as described in Ogut, Bohrnstedt, and Broer (2015).

• Examine relationship between NAEP performance and college 

preparedness using ordered logistic regressions

• Compute probabilities of preparedness at NAEP proficiency levels and 

college preparedness indicator point

• Compare probabilities of preparedness by student groups

9
| AIR.ORG

Results

10
| AIR.ORG

Sample

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS:09).

11

Group Percent

Not 

Enrolled

Less than 2-

year

2- or 4-year 

with 

remediation 

or GPA < 2.7

2- or 4-year 

without 

remediation and 

GPA ≥ 2.7

White 54 0.29 0.02 0.24 0.45

Black 12 0.41 0.04 0.31 0.24

Hispanic 21 0.38 0.04 0.30 0.29

Asian 4 0.19 0.01 0.25 0.55

Other race 9 0.36 0.06 0.29 0.29

Female 50 0.27 0.04 0.27 0.42

Male 50 0.38 0.03 0.26 0.33
| AIR.ORG

Predicting College Preparedness

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS:09).

12

Variables Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5

NAEP achievement 0.039

(0.001)

*** 0.04

(0.001)

*** 0.023

(0.002)

*** 0.012

(0.003)

*** 0.012

(0.003)

***

GPA 1.452

(0.071)

*** 1.439

(0.07)

*** 1.415

(0.07)

***

Algebra, grade 11 0.034

(0.008)

*** 0.031

(0.008)

***

Algebra, grade 9 0.011

(0.006)

0.008

(0.006)

Black 0.29

(0.103)

** 0.505

(0.109)

*** 0.472

(0.106)

*** 0.506

(0.106)

***

Hispanic 0.062

(0.095)

0.321

(0.103)

** 0.285

(0.102)

** 0.391

(0.102)

***

Asian -0.067

(0.146)

0.067

(0.141)

0.036

(0.142)

0.029

(0.14)

Other race -0.16

(0.089)

0.033

(0.086)

0.007

(0.086)

0.038

(0.087)

Male -0.263

(0.063)

*** -0.228

(0.063)

*** -0.243

(0.063)

***

Parent college graduate 0.501

(-0.057)

***

Cutoff 1: No college 4.855

(0.204)

*** 5.027

(0.206)

*** 6.208

(0.219)

*** 6.832

(0.234)

*** 6.654

(0.233)

***

Cutoff 2: Less than 2-year 5.034

(0.211)

*** 5.207

(0.213)

*** 6.42

(0.225)

*** 7.045

(0.241)

*** 6.87

(0.241)

***

Cutoff 3: 2- or 4-year with remediation or GPA of less than 2.7 6.53

(0.224)

*** 6.707

(0.225)

*** 8.169

(0.242)

*** 8.808

(0.258)

*** 8.652

(0.259)

***

Pseudo R2 0.299 0.301 0.422 0.427 0.436

N 11,690 11,690 11,690 11,690 11,690
| AIR.ORG

Probabilities of College Preparedness

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS:09).

13

*

56

35

*

18 *

12

*

3 4 4 *

3 *

2 *

1

*

27

35 33 *

28

*

10

*

13

26

*

45

*

58

*

87

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Below Basic Basic NAEP College Preparedness

Indicator

Proficient Advanced

Percent prepared

No College Less than 2-year Enrolled with remediation or GPA<2.7 Enrolled without remediation and GPA>=2.7
| AIR.ORG

Degrees of Preparedness

Enrollment in a 2-or 4-year college by remedial coursetaking status

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS:09).

14

*

55

34

*

18 *

12 *

3 4 4 * 3 * 2 * 1

*

16 19 *

15 *

11 *

3

*

24

43

*

64

*

75

*

93

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Below Basic Basic NAEP College Preparedness

Indicator

Proficient Advanced

Percent prepared

No College Less than 2-year Enrolled with remediation Enrolled without remediation
| AIR.ORG

Degrees of Preparedness

Enrollment in a 2-or 4-year college by remedial coursetaking status and first-year college GPA

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS:09).

15

*

56

35

*

18 *

12 *

3 4 4 *

3

*

2 *

1

*

27

35 33 *

28

*

10

*

13

26

*

45

*

58

*

87

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Below Basic Basic NAEP College Preparedness

Indicator

Proficient Advanced

Percent prepared

No College Less than 2-year Enrolled with remediation or GPA<2.7 Enrolled without remediation and GPA>=2.7
| AIR.ORG

Degrees of Preparedness

Enrollment in a 2-or 4-year college by first-year college GPA

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS:09).

16

*

54

34

*

19 *

13

* 4 4 3

*

3

*

2 *

1

*

21

25 *

22 *

18

*

7

*

21

36

*

56

*

67

*

89

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Below Basic Basic NAEP College Preparedness

Indicator

Proficient Advanced

Percent preapred

No College Less than 2-year Enrolled with GPA<2.7 Enrolled with GPA>=2.7
| AIR.ORG

Subgroups

*

52

36

*

22 *

16

*

5 3 3 2

*

2 *

1

19 21 18 *

15

*

7

*

26

41

*

58

*

67

*

88

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Below Basic Basic NAEP College

Preparedness

Indicator

Proficient Advanced

Percent prepared

No College Less than 2-year

Enrolled with low GPA Enrolled with high GPA

*

36

21

*

12 *

8 *

2 5 3 *

2

*

2 *

0

21 19 *

14 *

10 *

4

*

39

56

*

72

*

80

*

94

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Below Basic Basic NAEP College

Preparedness

Indicator

Proficient Advanced

Percent prepared

No College Less than 2-year

Enrolled with low GPA Enrolled with high GPA

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS:09).

17

Male Female
| AIR.ORG

Subgroups

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS:09).

18

White Black

*

49

32

*

18 *

12

*

3 3 4 *

2

*

1 *

0

18 19 *

15 *

12 *

4

*

29

47

*

65

*

74

*

92

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Below Basic Basic NAEP College

Preparedness

Indicator

Proficient Advanced

Percent prepared

No College Less than 2-year

Enrolled with low GPA Enrolled with high GPA

*

35

20

*

10 *

7 *

2 4 3 2

*

1

*

0

25

23 *

16 *

12 *

4

*

36

55

*

72

*

80

*

94

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Below Basic Basic NAEP College

Preparedness

Indicator

Proficient Advanced

Percent prepared

No College Less than 2-year

Enrolled with low GPA Enrolled with high GPA
| AIR.ORG

Subgroups

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS:09).

19

Hispanic Asian

*

42

27

*

16 *

12 *

4 4 4 3 2 *

1

20 19

15 *

13 *

5

*

34

50

*

66

*

74

*

90

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Below Basic Basic NAEP College

Preparedness

Indicator

Proficient Advanced

Percent prepared

No College Less than 2-year

Enrolled with low GPA Enrolled with high GPA

37

26

17 *

13 *

5

2 1 1 1 0

22 21

17

15 *

7

39

52

65

*

72

*

87

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Below Basic Basic NAEP College

Preparedness

Indicator

Proficient Advanced

Percent prepared

No College Less than 2-year

Enrolled with low GPA Enrolled with high GPA
| AIR.ORG

Subgroups

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS:09).

20

Parental education less than college Parental education college or higher

*

47

32

*

21 *

15

*

6 4 4 3

*

2 *

1

17 18 *

15 *

13 *

6

*

32

46

*

61

*

69

*

87

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Below Basic Basic NAEP College

Preparedness

Indicator

Proficient Advanced

Percent prepared

No College Less than 2-year

Enrolled with low GPA Enrolled with high GPA

*

33

20 *

11 *

8 *

2 2 2 1

*

1

*

0

*

27

24 *

18 *

14

*

5

*

38

54

*

70

*

77

*

92

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Below Basic Basic NAEP College

Preparedness

Indicator

Proficient Advanced

Percent prepared

No College Less than 2-year

Enrolled with low GPA Enrolled with high GPA
| AIR.ORG

Summary

• Preparedness as enrolling in 2- or 4-year college with a first-year GPA of 2.7 or higher 

– The NAEP Basic level corresponded to a 49 percent rate of being college prepared, and the 

rate increased to 73 percent and 90 percent at the Proficient and Advanced levels, 

respectively. 

– A student at NAGB’s college preparedness cut point had a 65 percent chance of being 

college prepared. 

• Across gender, race/ethnicity, and parental education

– The probability of preparedness increases as performance moves from the NAEP Basic to 

the NAEP Advanced levels. 

– Female students and Black students had higher probabilities of being college prepared 

compared to their male and non-Black peers at each NAEP achievement level. 

– Students whose parents graduated from college or had an advanced degree had a higher 

probability of being college prepared than did students whose parents had less than a 

college degree

21
| AIR.ORG

Discussion

• Strong evidence of the predictive validity of NAEP and NAEP achievement levels

• The evidence for NAGB’s college preparedness indicator does not appear to be as strong

– When college preparedness is defined as entry into a 2- or 4-year college without remedial 

coursetaking and having a first-year college GPA of 2.7 or higher, the indicator corresponds 

to a 45 percent probability of preparedness. 

– But when the definition is updated to focus on enrolling in a 2 or 4-year college and earning 

a first-year college GPA of at least 2.7, the probability of preparedness associated with the 

indicator increases to 65 percent.

• Preferred definition of college preparedness—which requires a college GPA of 2.7 but does 

not require the absence of remedial coursetaking

– NAGB’s preparedness indicator (at 65 percent) is very close to a 66 percent benchmark, 

– NAEP Basic (at 49 percent) is close to the 50 percent benchmark 

– NAEP Proficient (at 73 percent) is close to the 75 percent probability benchmark.

22
AMERICAN INSTITUTES FOR RESEARCH® | AIR.ORG

BURHAN OGUT

Principal Researcher

bogut@air.org

FCSM_10/23

Notice of Trademark: “American Institutes for Research” and “AIR” are registered trademarks. All other brand, product, or company names are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective owners.

Copyright © 2023 American Institutes for Research®. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, 

website display, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the American Institutes for Research. For permission requests, please use the Contact Us form on AIR.ORG.