Housing Forecast: October 2021

20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 2020 2021 2022

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,485 1,086 1,440 1,575 1,599 1,588 1,614 1,646 1,643 1,608 1,565 1,545 1,380 1,612 1,590

 Percent Change: YoY 6.9 16.8 -1.3

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 981 774 1,041 1,220 1,156 1,107 1,125 1,165 1,186 1,192 1,171 1,150 991 1,138 1,175

 Percent Change: YoY 11.6 14.9 3.2

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 504 312 399 356 443 482 489 481 457 416 394 396 389 474 416

 Percent Change: YoY -3.3 21.7 -12.2

 Total Home Sales 6,190 5,092 7,077 7,582 7,200 6,572 6,682 6,618 6,545 6,564 6,551 6,483 6,462 6,768 6,536

 Percent Change: YoY 7.3 4.7 -3.4

 New Single-Family 703 708 973 926 896 739 742 786 869 911 908 886 822 791 893

 Percent Change: YoY 20.4 -3.8 13.0

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,487 4,383 6,103 6,657 6,303 5,833 5,940 5,832 5,676 5,653 5,644 5,597 5,640 5,977 5,642

 Percent Change: YoY 5.6 6.0 -5.6

NSA, Thous. $

 Median New Home Price 330 323 333 354 365 381 399 420 426 429 436 453 335 391 436

 Median Existing Home Price 272 288 309 311 314 351 370 368 366 395 405 397 295 351 391

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 FHFA Purchase-Only Index 6.3 5.8 8.2 11.1 12.9 17.4 18.2 16.6 14.8 11.0 8.8 7.4 11.1 16.6 7.4

Percent

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.1 2.9 3.3

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 2.6 2.8

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 736 1,069 1,287 1,282 1,239 1,145 1,069 870 709 883 909 830 4,374 4,323 3,330

 Purchase 288 349 479 455 367 501 506 476 374 552 581 505 1,572 1,851 2,012

 Refinance 448 720 808 827 871 644 563 394 334 331 328 325 2,802 2,473 1,318

 Refinance Share (Percent) 61 67 63 65 70 56 53 45 47 38 36 39 64 57 40

 --------------- 2020 --------------- --------------- 2021 --------------- --------------- 2022 ---------------

October 11, 2021

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from September 30, 2021.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: FHFA Purchase-Only Index and median home price forecasts are updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's 

business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although 

the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, 

current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, 

forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.