Noncitizen Coverage 

and its Effects on U.S. Population Statistics 

J. David Brown, Misty L. Heggeness, and Marta Murray-Close

October 24, 2023

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Any opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not represent the views of the U.S. Census Bureau. All results have 

been reviewed to ensure that no confidential information is disclosed (CBDRB-FY23-0253 and CBDRB-FY23-0255).
Motivation

• Noncitizen coverage affects

• Total population

• Geographic distribution

• Demographic distribution

• Socioeconomic distribution

• Foreign-born population statistics mainly from survey-collected data

• American Community Survey (ACS) foreign-born population estimates used in Demographic Analysis 

and Population Estimates Program (PEP) estimates

• ACS uses PEP population controls

• Some noncitizens may appear in administrative data, but not surveys

• Some immigrants live in nontraditional housing structures not found in Census Bureau’s Master Address 

File (MAF), so not included in decennial census (Kissam, 2017) 

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2020 AR Census Construction

• 31 Government and Third-Party Sources, linked and unduplicated

• Use model to predict each person’s location on Census Day

• Persons with multiple addresses are assigned fractionally to each, using model 

probability weights normalized to sum to one

• Attach demographic characteristics from 2020 Census, past Census Bureau surveys and 

censuses, and AR sources

• Missing values filled in via modeled predictions

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2020 AR Census Construction (continued)

• Records with source vintage in 2019 or 2020

• Include only records for which a unique person identifier can be assigned

• Facilitates person unduplication

• Needed to attach demographic characteristics

• Exclude people deceased or not yet born as of reference date

• Exclude non-U.S. residents (tourist and business visa-holders)

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Percent Difference Between Alternative Estimates and 2020 Census 

for Total Population

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The data presented in this figure are approved for dissemination by the DRB (CBDRB-FY23-0253).
Percent Difference Between AR Census and 2020 Census 

for Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Males

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The data presented in this figure are approved for dissemination by the DRB (CBDRB-FY23-0253).
Percent Difference Between AR Census and 2020 Census 

for Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Females

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The data presented in this figure are approved for dissemination by the DRB (CBDRB-FY23-0253).
AR Census and 2020 Demographic Analysis Comparison, Age 0-74

• Demographic Analysis native population is between 1.5 and 3.2 million higher than AR census

• DA is no more than 1.7 million higher in the 25 to 64 age group

• AR census non-native population is between 9.0 and 12.4 million higher than Demographic 

Analysis

• AR census is as least 7.2 million higher in the 25 to 64 age group

• AR census total population is between 6.6 and 9.9 million higher than Demographic Analysis

• AR census is at least 5.7 million higher in the 25 to 64 age group

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AR Census Compared to Other Estimates by Immigration Status

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AR census 2019, 2021 ACS

Office of 

Immigration 

Statistics

Pew Research 

Center

Citizen 308,700,000 308,600,000

Born citizen 287,300,000 285,000,000

Naturalized citizen 19,980,000 23,610,000 20,700,000

Citizen of unknown type 1,411,000

Noncitizen 32,510,000 21,490,000 27,930,000 24,900,000

Lawful permanent resident, refugee,

asylee, or other legal noncitizen 13,811,000 13,350,000 12,300,000

Nonimmigrant visa holder 7,009,000 3,190,000 2,200,000

Noncitizen with unknown legal status 11,690,000 11,390,000 10,500,000

Unknown citizenship and legal status 478,300

The data presented in this figure are approved for dissemination by the DRB (CBDRB-FY23-0253).
AR Census Linkage to 2020 Census by Immigration Status

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Linked to person in 

2020 Census

Matched to 2020 

Census person 

without PIK/EPIK at 

address by age-sexHispanic origin

2020 Census 

person without 

PIK/EPIK at 

address, not 

matched by agesex-Hispanic origin

No 2020 Census 

person without 

PIK/EPIK at address

Total 78.28 3.12 6.70 11.91

Born U.S. citizen 82.38 2.77 5.39 9.46

Naturalized U.S. citizen 80.28 3.18 6.68 9.90

Lawful permanent 

resident 67.15 3.61 11.02 18.27

Temporary visa holder 43.50 3.38 9.61 43.51

Noncitizen of unknown 

legal status 15.43 10.92 31.33 42.28

The data presented in this figure are approved for dissemination by the DRB (CBDRB-FY23-0253).
Linked and Unlinked AR Census Percent Distribution by Immigration Status using 2020 

Census Records without PIK/EPIKs as Population Controls

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Linked AR census Unlinked AR 

census

Unlinked AR 

census 

weighted by 

2020 Census 

without 

PIK/EPIKs

Unlinked AR 

census – unlinked 

AR census 

weighted by 2020 

Census without 

PIK/EPIKs

Number of 

unlinked AR 

census people 

not in 2020 

Census without 

PIK/EPIK group

Total people 266,900,000 74,170,000 54,310,000 19,860,000 19,860,000

Born U.S. citizen 88.50 68.46 71.11 61.28 12,170,000

Naturalized U.S. 

citizen 6.01 5.32 5.05 6.06 1,204,000

Lawful permanent 

resident 2.63 4.64 4.32 5.52 1,096,000

Temporary visa 

holder 1.14 5.23 5.13 5.50 1,092,000

Noncitizen of 

unknown legal 

status 0.68 13.15 11.41 17.92 3,559,000

The data presented in this figure are approved for dissemination by the DRB (CBDRB-FY23-0253).
Percent Difference Between 2016-2020 American Community Survey Estimates for 

Historically Undercounted Populations with 2020 AR Census and 2016-2020 

Population Estimates Program Population Controls

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The data presented in this figure are approved for dissemination by the DRB (CBDRB-FY23-0253).
Differences in Demographic Distributions for AR Census People with Addresses in 

2020 Census Universe and Others

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The data presented in this figure are approved for dissemination by the DRB (CBDRB-FY23-0253).
Conclusions (1 of 2)

• Relative to survey-based estimates, AR suggest population has more:

• males

• Hispanics 

• middle-aged people

• noncitizens

• Californians

• Texans

• people along the U.S.-Mexico border

• renters

• people without health insurance

• people with less than high school education

• people speaking other languages at home

• Illustrates importance of interagency data sharing

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Conclusions (2 of 2)

• Further work needed to refine the estimates

• Study if there is duplication when person switches ITINs or from ITIN to SSN

• Obtain more sources on noncitizens to improve locational accuracy, including 

whether they are U.S. residents

• Develop model estimating probability of U.S. residence

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