Housing Forecast: December 2020

20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 2019 2020 2021 2022

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,484 1,079 1,440 1,496 1,404 1,404 1,456 1,513 1,526 1,541 1,558 1,578 1,290 1,375 1,444 1,551

 Percent Change: YoY 3.2 6.6 5.1 7.4

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 968 766 1,041 1,148 1,077 1,073 1,113 1,163 1,174 1,180 1,191 1,202 888 981 1,107 1,187

 Percent Change: YoY 1.4 10.5 12.8 7.2

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 517 313 399 348 327 331 343 350 353 361 367 376 402 394 338 364

 Percent Change: YoY 7.5 -2.0 -14.3 7.9

 Total Home Sales 6,184 5,016 7,131 7,601 7,055 6,615 6,512 6,472 6,452 6,462 6,484 6,519 6,023 6,483 6,664 6,479

 Percent Change: YoY 1.1 7.6 2.8 -2.8

 New Single-Family 701 703 994 978 910 853 855 868 872 876 881 890 683 844 872 880

 Percent Change: YoY 10.7 23.6 3.3 0.9

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,483 4,313 6,137 6,623 6,145 5,762 5,657 5,604 5,580 5,586 5,603 5,629 5,340 5,639 5,792 5,600

 Percent Change: YoY 0.0 5.6 2.7 -3.3

NSA, Thous. $

 Median New Home Price 330 323 328 349 350 341 336 355 353 342 340 360 322 332 346 349

 Median Existing Home Price 272 288 309 291 289 304 317 296 292 306 321 300 272 290 302 305

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 FHFA Purchase-Only Index 6.1 5.5 7.8 6.4 5.9 5.4 2.3 2.1 0.8 1.1 1.7 1.7 5.4 6.4 2.1 1.7

Percent

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.9 3.1 2.7 2.9

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.8

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 752 1,095 1,265 1,173 891 913 872 790 656 744 751 684 2,462 4,285 3,466 2,835

 Purchase 290 353 475 437 330 467 466 400 317 462 471 411 1,326 1,556 1,663 1,661

 Refinance 462 741 790 736 561 445 407 390 339 282 280 273 1,136 2,729 1,803 1,174

 Refinance Share (Percent) 61 68 62 63 63 49 47 49 52 38 37 40 46 64 52 41

 --------------- 2020 --------------- --------------- 2021 --------------- --------------- 2022 ---------------

December 10, 2020

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from November 30, 2020.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business 

prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases 

its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any 

particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the 

ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.