Quarterly Report on FCS Condition

September 14, 2023

Greg Lyons

Mindy Stultz

FCA Board Meeting

September 2023
2

Topics for Open Session

Economic Conditions Affecting the Farm Credit System

 Near term economic resilience

 Contributions to inflation

 Agricultural incomes

 Farmland markets 

Farm Credit System Condition and Performance

 System growth and loan portfolio credit quality

 Earnings and capital

 Financial Institution Rating System (FIRS) 
3

Economic growth continues to defy expectations 

amidst near-term uncertainty

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2021

Q1

2021

Q2

2021

Q3

2021

Q4

2022

Q1

2022

Q2

2022

Q3

2022

Q4

2023

Q1

2023

Q2

2023

Q2(F )

CONTRIBUTION TO GDP GROWTH (%)

Government Net exports

Fixed investment Change in private inventories

Personal consumption expenditures GDP growth

Slow but stable growth to date

 Consumer spending drives recent growth

 Labor markets support consumer activity

 Improving outlook for second-half 2023

Uncertain 2024 outlook

 Consumer sentiment falls

 Manufacturing pulls back

 Inflation

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate). 

Blue Chip forecast range from Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta GDPNow.

Range of top 10 and bottom 10 

average Blue Chip forecasts

Real GDP growth by component
4

Overall inflation moderates, but core inflation shows 

slower declines

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 Jul-23

CONTRIBUTION TO CPI (%)

Food

Energy Shelter

Other

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index, author’s calculations 

and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Personal Income and Outlays.

3.3%

4.2%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23

YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE (%)

CPI year-over-year change percentage point 

contribution by category 

Core PCE and PCE 

year-over-year change 

PCE

Core PCE

excluding food and energy 
5

Energy price declines have contributed to slower 

inflation

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2018 2019 2020 2020 2021 2022 2023

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE ($ / BARREL)

STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE (MILLION BARRELS)

Weekly ending SPR (millions of barrels) Crude oil price, WTI

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration spot prices, U.S. Energy Information 

Weekly U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in SPR.

Strategic Petroleum Reserve

Crude oil price

Strategic Petroleum Reserve 

and crude oil price

No further price declines anticipated

 Refilling the SPR 

 Impacts to inflation largely accounted for

Stable short-term price outlooks

 Gains in U.S., other non-OPEC production

 Production cuts add uncertainty
6

Shelter cost growth remains high due to low 

inventories, some signs of moderation

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, New Residential Construction. Freddie Mac, 

Primary Mortgage Market Survey.

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Aug-2022 Nov-2022 Feb-2023 May-2023 Aug-2023

30-

NEW / EXISTING HOMES SALES

YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE AVERAGE

CHANGE FROM PRIOR MONTH (1000s)

New homes sales Existing home sales

Average 30-year mortage rate

Monthly change in new/existing home sales and 

30-year fixed mortgage rate

Low inventories pressure shelter prices

 High mortgage rates

 Fewer “plans to move”

A peak in shelter prices?

 CPI shelter price growth slows

 New construction rebounds
7

Tight labor markets show signs of softening

60

65

70

75

80

85

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

EMPLOYMENT POPULATION RATIO, 25 

– 54 YRS.

TOTAL NONFARM PAYROLLS (BILLIONS)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation, Automatic Data 

Processing, ADP National Employment Report. 

Total nonfarm private payrolls

Employment population ratio, 

25-54 years

Core-age employment population ratio 

and nonfarm private payrolls

Existing labor force remains tight

 Core-age employment ratios at record high

 65+ population employment remains low

Some signs of easing conditions

 Job openings, quits come off record highs

 Increases in foreign-born labor population

Payrolls driving looser conditions

 Payroll growth slows

 Some sectors signal reduced labor needs
8

Net farm income drops sharply in 2023 driven by falling 

cash receipts, select expenses

148.6

Source: USDA Economic Research Service Farm Income and Wealth Statistics,

August 31, 2023 Release.

Dashed line represents 2000 – 2021 average NCFI

Income Expenses

Farm incomes forecast above average

 Cash receipt declines dominate

 Receipts remain near record highs

Revised forecast shows broader declines

 Nonreal estate interest expenses

 Government payments near multi-decade lows

Farm sector financial ratios remain strong

 Solvency ratios improve for 4th consecutive year 

 Liquidity, profitability metrics fall from peak

Changes to net cash farm income

2022 vs. 2023F
9

Commodity profitability forecast to fall through 2024

Source: University of Illinois, Revenue and Costs for Illinois Grain Crops.

Breakeven price reflects only cash receipt income and includes land costs. 

Crops

 Slightly below trend domestic yields

 Global production rebounds

Livestock

 Higher prices, but profitability concerns

 Value and volume of exports fall

Specialty commodities

 Consumer-oriented goods face pressure

 High income nations drive export declines 0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (P) 2024 (P)

FARM PRICE RECEIVED / BREAKEVEN PRICE

($ / BUSHEL)

Dashed line represents breakeven price

Illinois farm price received 

and breakeven price

Soybeans

Corn
10

Export demand returns to baseline on higher food 

cost, slower global growth

Source: USDA FAS Global Agricultural Trade System, International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook, USDA ERS Agricultural Exchange Rate Data Set. 

50

100

150

200

250

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

CUMULATIVE EXPORTS (MILLION METRIC TONS)

2020 2021 2022 2023

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021

GLOBAL GDP GROWTH

AGRICULTURAL EXPORT EXCHANGE RATE INDEX

Global GDP Growth U.S. Agricultural Export Commodity Index

Gray lines represent cumulative exports 

for years 2010 - 2019

Global GDP growth and Cumulative U.S. agricultural volumes exported

U.S. agricultural export implied exchange rate
11

Select farm expenses may have peaked 

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan-2020 Jan-2021 Jan-2022 Jan-2023

INDEX (2011 = 100)

Feed Fertilizer Labor

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jan-2020 Jan-2021 Jan-2022 Jan-2023

PERCENT INCREASE

Large Combines Large Tractors High Capacity Sprayers

Sources: USDA NASS Agricultural Prices, Iron Solutions. 

Agricultural prices paid indexes Equipment price changes
12

Farmers absorb losses from weather events in 2023

Source: USDA Risk Management Agency, Cause of Loss

Note: Gray regions listed no reported losses as of July 2023. 

Crop insurance deductibles absorbed by farmers

Jan - Jul 2023

Flooding

March

Winter Weather

January - April

Flooding

April - May

Drought

April, June
13

Farmland value growth slows, but transactions 

indicate a potential peak

Source: CoreLogic Transaction Database, CropScape, gNATSGO, ODAE calculations 

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

MEDIAN TRANSACTED $/ACRE

4 QUARTER MOVING AVERAGE

0

400

800

1200

2018

Q1

2018

Q3

2019

Q1

2019

Q3

2020

Q1

2020

Q3

2021

Q1

2021

Q3

2022

Q1

2022

Q3

2023

Q1

2023

Q3

TRANSACTIONS

high medium low

High soil quality 

Medium

Low

IA corn and soybean farmland sale price

by soil quality, Q1 2018 – Q3 2023

Land value growth slows 

 Weakening fundamentals

 Survey data show slow, positive growth

Sale prices indicate potential plateau

 Number of transactions declines

 Divergence in soil quality 
14

Questions
Farm Credit System

Condition and Performance

as of June 30, 2023

Mindy Stultz

Supervisory FCA Examiner

Office of Examination
0.5%

2.0%

1.6%

3.4%

0.7% 0.8% 1.0%

3.6%

2.4%

3.9%

1.3%

Portfolio growth slows against a backdrop 

of higher interest rates and tighter margins 

Source: Federal Farm Credit Banks Funding Corporation Information Statements 16

Portfolio Loan Growth

(% change year-to-date through June)

5.4%

-4.0%

1.8% 2.8% 3.1%

-6.7%

16.0%

5.6%

-0.2% -1.9%

1.4%

12.8%

RE Mortgage

(46%)

Production &

Intermediate

(17%)

Agribusiness

(18%)

Rural

Infrastructure

(13%)

Loan Growth by Loan Type

(% change year-to-date through June) +0.0% Qtr 0.3% Qtr

+1.6% YTD +1.3% YTD

+6.2% 12M +5.8% 12M

Total 

Assets

6/30/23

$484.6

billion

Gross

Loans

6/30/23

$378.0

billion
Source: Federal Farm Credit Banks Funding Corporation Information Statements 17

Credit risk measures edge higher; overall 

levels remain low

3.8%

3.4%

5.7%

5.7%

1.1%

3.5%

3.3%

5.6%

4.7%

0.7%

5.1%

4.9%

7.8%

6.6%

1.1%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%

Total

Portfolio

Real Estate

Mortgage

Production &

Intermediate (1)

Agribusiness

Rural

 Infrastructure

Jun-23 Jun-22 Jun-21

Loans Classified Less than Acceptable

(% of loans outstanding)

(1) Includes lease receivables

$2,110

$2,478 $2,530 $2,487

$1,861 $1,769

$2,172

0.84%

0.95% 0.92%

0.84%

0.58% 0.50% 0.57%

Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 Jun-22 Jun-23

Nonaccrual Loans

Accruing Restructed

Loans

Accruing 90 days+ Past

Due Loans

OPO

% Nonperforming

Assets

Nonperforming Assets

(% of loans outstanding and other property owned)

(amounts in millions)
The System reported solid financial results 

for the 1st half of 2023

Source: Federal Farm Credit Banks Funding Corporation Information Statements 18

4.40%

3.56% 3.16%

3.79%

5.33%

2.36%

1.30% 0.83% 1.63%

3.37%

2.04%

2.26% 2.33%

2.16%

1.96%

2.42% 2.46% 2.46% 2.39% 2.41%

2019 2020 2021 2022 Q2 2023

% Rate: Earning Assets % Rate: Interest-Bearing Liab.

% Net Interest Spread % Net Interest Margin

Net Interest Spread | Net Interest Margin

9.8%

5.0% 4.1% 4.9%

6.5%

8.8%

10.8%

6.8%

Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 Jun-22 Jun-23

Average Earning Assets 

(% change from the same period a year ago)

$2,337 $2,466 $2,649 $2,668 

$2,873 

$3,441 $3,567 $3,506 

160 117 87 66 158 

(30)

1 

407 

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

System Net Income

Provisions for Credit Losses - Loans

(amounts in millions)

System Earnings

(year-to-date through June)
The System continues to be soundly 

capitalized with strong risk-bearing capacity

Capital

(as of June 30, 2023)

▶ Year-to-date, System capital has 

increased 3.7% or $2.6 billion.

▶ Total regulatory capital ratios are sound:

- Banks: 13.0% to 17.4%

- Associations: 12.0% to 34.0%.

▶ Capital and the allowance for loan 

credit losses equaled 19.3% of loans 

outstanding at June 30 as compared 

with 19.7% a year ago.

Source: Federal Farm Credit Banks Funding Corporation Information Statements

$48.8 

$55.4 

$61.7 

$69.5 $68.6 $71.2 

Restricted Capital (1)

System Capital

(amounts in billions)

System Capital

(at quarter-end)

(1) Restricted Capital represents capital associated with the FCS Insurance Fund

19
20 Source: Federal Farm Credit Banks Funding Corporation Information Statements and Farm Credit System Call Reports

31 40

82

40

64 36

28

74

99

47

83 67

18

33

12

212

156

193 193

AgFirst,FCB AgriBank, FCB CoBank, ACB FCB of Texas

Supplemental

Level 3:

Level 2:

Level 1:

90 day 

regulatory 

minimum

Days of Liquidity | Farm Credit System Banks

(as of June 30, 2023)

Capital-to-assets ratio improves; banks maintain 

robust liquidity levels

** 2017-2022 represents year-over-year growth; 2023 represents year-to-date growth 

AOCL refers to accumulated other comprehensive loss

3.0%

9.7% 9.4%

1.6%

5.9% 6.2%

-1.3%

3.7%

14.4% 14.7%

17.2%

15.5% 15.8%

Asset growth **

Capital growth **

capital-to-assets ratio excl. AOCL

capital-to-assets ratio

Capital-to-Assets Ratio
44 39 34 30 32 33 35 35

31

29

32 35 35 32 26 24

2

5 7 7 4 4

3 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1/1/17 1/1/18 1/1/19 1/1/20 1/1/21 1/1/22 1/1/23 7/1/23

Number of Rated Institutions

1 Rated 2 Rated 3 Rated or lower

Composite FIRS ratings remain stable

Composite FIRS Ratings

(based on 6/30/23 financial reporting)

▶ Composite FIRS ratings reflect the 

System’s sound financial condition.

▶ Over 95% of System banks and 

associations have a Composite FIRS 

rating of 1 or 2.

▶ Institutions rated 3 or lower hold just 

over 1% of System assets.

Composite FIRS Ratings

Farm Credit System Banks and Associations(a)

21

Source: FCA’s FIRS ratings database (a) actively reporting