Housing Forecast: July 2019

18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 2018 2019 2020

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Housing Starts 1,321 1,260 1,233 1,185 1,213 1,266 1,249 1,265 1,264 1,258 1,250 1,243 1,250 1,248 1,254

 Percent Change: YoY 3.9 -0.1 0.4

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 893 894 876 828 864 850 874 900 906 904 900 898 876 872 902

 Percent Change: YoY 3.2 -0.4 3.5

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 428 365 357 357 349 416 375 365 358 354 350 345 374 376 352

 Percent Change: YoY 5.6 0.6 -6.5

 Total Home Sales 6,149 6,039 5,913 5,722 5,879 5,968 6,092 6,105 6,102 6,078 6,060 6,044 5,957 6,011 6,071

 Percent Change: YoY -2.7 0.9 1.0

 New Single-Family Home Sales 642 632 607 579 673 653 656 660 662 654 649 644 617 660 652

 Percent Change: YoY 0.7 7.0 -1.2

 Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,507 5,407 5,307 5,143 5,207 5,315 5,436 5,445 5,440 5,424 5,411 5,400 5,340 5,351 5,419

 Percent Change: YoY -3.1 0.2 1.3

NSA, Thous. $

 Median New 331 314 326 322 312 329 342 338 328 345 356 351 326 330 345

 Median Total Existing 244 266 264 256 253 279 277 269 266 292 289 278 259 269 281

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 FHFA Purchase-Only Index 7.4 6.8 6.5 5.9 5.1 4.7 4.9 5.4 5.3 4.9 4.3 3.7 5.9 5.4 3.7

Percent

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 4.5 4.0 3.7

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.8 3.6 3.3

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 368 476 429 365 326 498 506 422 342 466 466 417 1,637 1,752 1,691

 Purchase 227 349 319 266 218 353 337 290 229 353 351 302 1,161 1,198 1,235

 Refinance 141 126 110 99 108 145 168 132 112 113 115 115 477 554 456

 Refinance Share (Percent) 38 27 26 27 33 29 33 31 33 24 25 28 29 32 27

 --------------- 2018 --------------- --------------- 2019 --------------- --------------- 2020 ---------------

July 10, 2019

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from June 28, 2019.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or 

expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, 

estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the 

assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as 

of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.