Housing Forecast: October 2022

21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 2021 2022 2023

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,581 1,591 1,569 1,679 1,720 1,647 1,469 1,337 1,179 1,144 1,146 1,163 1,601 1,543 1,158

 Percent Change: YoY 16.0 -3.6 -25.0

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 1,138 1,112 1,104 1,170 1,187 1,086 902 827 758 754 769 790 1,127 1,001 768

 Percent Change: YoY 13.8 -11.2 -23.3

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 443 479 465 509 533 561 567 509 421 390 377 373 474 542 390

 Percent Change: YoY 21.8 14.5 -28.0

 Total Home Sales 7,140 6,704 6,781 6,959 6,833 5,986 5,277 4,472 4,335 4,327 4,500 4,717 6,891 5,641 4,470

 Percent Change: YoY 6.6 -18.1 -20.8

 New Single-Family 853 754 715 755 776 612 552 540 515 528 554 571 771 620 542

 Percent Change: YoY -6.2 -19.6 -12.6

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 6,287 5,950 6,067 6,203 6,057 5,373 4,725 3,931 3,819 3,799 3,946 4,146 6,120 5,021 3,928

 Percent Change: YoY 8.5 -17.9 -21.8

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 Fannie Mae HPI 12.9 17.2 19.2 18.9 20.5 19.4 13.2 9.0 3.3 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 18.9 9.0 -1.5

Percent: Quarterly Avg, Annual Avg

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.8 5.2 5.6 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.2 3.0 5.3 6.4

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 1,297 1,145 1,122 1,007 745 676 514 394 333 457 494 452 4,570 2,330 1,735

 Purchase 371 510 529 490 394 506 418 310 242 359 390 353 1,900 1,629 1,343

 Refinance 926 635 593 516 351 170 96 84 91 98 104 99 2,670 701 392

 Refinance Share (Percent) 71 55 53 51 47 25 19 21 27 21 21 22 58 30 23

October 10, 2022

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from September 30, 2022; all other forecasts are based on the date above.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: The Fannie Mae HPI forecast is updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

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Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's 

business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although 

the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, 

current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, 

forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management. 

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