Housing Forecast: March 2021

20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 2020 2021 2022

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,484 1,079 1,432 1,588 1,595 1,566 1,513 1,491 1,481 1,481 1,480 1,477 1,380 1,541 1,479

 Percent Change: YoY 7.0 11.6 -4.0

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 968 766 1,037 1,228 1,145 1,204 1,137 1,111 1,100 1,095 1,090 1,085 991 1,149 1,092

 Percent Change: YoY 11.7 15.9 -4.9

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 517 313 395 360 450 362 375 380 381 386 389 392 389 392 387

 Percent Change: YoY -3.3 0.7 -1.2

 Total Home Sales 6,187 5,086 7,077 7,553 7,292 6,894 6,683 6,549 6,534 6,524 6,525 6,521 6,455 6,854 6,526

 Percent Change: YoY 7.2 6.2 -4.8

 New Single-Family 701 703 974 896 895 857 869 868 860 854 850 845 815 872 852

 Percent Change: YoY 19.3 7.0 -2.3

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,487 4,383 6,103 6,657 6,397 6,037 5,814 5,681 5,674 5,670 5,675 5,676 5,640 5,982 5,674

 Percent Change: YoY 5.6 6.1 -5.1

NSA, Thous. $

 Median New Home Price 330 323 333 350 362 356 360 366 377 366 368 374 334 361 371

 Median Existing Home Price 272 288 309 311 299 318 334 325 312 327 341 332 295 319 328

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 FHFA Purchase-Only Index 6.2 5.7 8.0 10.3 9.3 10.1 7.2 4.2 3.9 2.7 2.8 2.5 10.3 4.2 2.5

Percent

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.4

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.1

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 752 1,096 1,346 1,303 1,230 1,097 861 745 643 783 793 726 4,497 3,933 2,943

 Purchase 290 353 513 450 356 514 515 434 350 501 508 439 1,607 1,819 1,797

 Refinance 462 742 833 853 874 583 346 310 293 282 284 287 2,891 2,114 1,146

 Refinance Share (Percent) 61 68 62 65 71 53 40 42 46 36 36 40 64 54 39

March 10, 2021

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from February 26, 2021.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: FHFA Purchase-Only Index and median home price forecasts are updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

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Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's 

business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although 

the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, 

current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, 

forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management. 

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