Housing Forecast: April 2017

16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 2016 2017 2018

Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts 1,151 1,159 1,145 1,248 1,253 1,240 1,240 1,265 1,310 1,330 1,340 1,350 1,174 1,250 1,333

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 790 755 758 834 843 850 860 880 920 940 960 980 782 858 950

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 9.4% 9.8% 10.7%

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 361 405 387 414 410 390 380 385 390 390 380 370 392 391 383

New Single-Family Home Sales 529 565 583 557 583 600 624 639 658 673 687 702 560 612 680

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 11.8% 9.2% 11.2%

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops) 5,300 5,503 5,390 5,570 5,596 5,546 5,545 5,563 5,562 5,568 5,672 5,775 5,450 5,562 5,644

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 3.8% 2.1% 1.5%

Total Home Sales (New + Existing) 5,829 6,068 5,973 6,127 6,179 6,147 6,169 6,201 6,221 6,241 6,360 6,476 6,010 6,174 6,324

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 4.5% 2.7% 2.4%

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New 305 313 307 317 322 330 323 333 337 345 337 346 310 327 341

Median Total Existing 216 239 239 234 228 253 252 246 239 264 263 255 232 245 255

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (% Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 6.1% 5.9% 6.0% 5.9% 5.2% 5.4% 5.0% 5.3% 4.9% 4.7% 4.4% 3.9% 5.9% 5.3% 3.9%

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 3.6 4.2 4.3

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.9 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 2.9 3.3 3.6

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations 363 493 579 527 355 444 416 362 309 421 425 379 1,963 1,578 1,534

 Purchase 189 291 286 248 193 306 308 262 210 325 331 286 1,014 1,068 1,153

 Refinance 174 203 293 279 162 139 109 100 98 95 94 93 949 510 381

Refinance Share (%) 48% 41% 51% 53% 46% 31% 26% 28% 32% 23% 22% 25% 48% 32% 25%

April 10, 2017

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from March 31, 2017.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating 

Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend 

on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided 

in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. 

The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views 

of Fannie Mae or its management.

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Conf i dent i al - I nt er nal Di s t r i but i on