Housing Forecast: February 2019

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Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts 1,317 1,261 1,234 1,229 1,237 1,256 1,271 1,282 1,287 1,288 1,289 1,288 1,203 1,260 1,262 1,288

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 889 896 877 841 865 890 912 928 934 937 939 940 849 876 899 938

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 8.6% 3.2% 2.6% 4.3%

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 428 365 357 388 372 366 359 354 353 351 350 348 354 384 363 351

New Single-Family Home Sales 656 633 607 619 624 635 644 651 656 660 663 664 613 629 639 661

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 9.3% 2.5% 1.6% 3.5%

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops) 5,507 5,413 5,273 5,180 5,159 5,360 5,417 5,441 5,449 5,454 5,457 5,459 5,510 5,340 5,344 5,455

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 1.1% -3.1% 0.1% 2.1%

Total Home Sales (New + Existing) 6,163 6,046 5,880 5,799 5,783 5,995 6,061 6,092 6,105 6,114 6,120 6,123 6,123 5,969 5,983 6,116

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 1.9% -2.5% 0.2% 2.2%

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New 331 314 326 353 347 328 340 368 360 338 349 377 323 331 346 356

Median Total Existing 244 266 264 255 256 278 275 266 265 286 282 272 247 259 268 277

Fannie Mae HPI (% Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 5.8% 5.9% 6.0% 5.4% 4.8% 4.5% 4.3% 4.0% 3.7% 3.2% 2.6% 2.5% 5.6% 5.4% 4.0% 2.5%

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (% Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 7.4% 6.8% 6.3% 5.5% 4.4% 4.4% 4.5% 4.2% 4.0% 3.3% 2.8% 2.8% 6.9% 5.5% 4.2% 2.8%

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.0 4.5 4.4 4.4

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.2 3.8 3.9 3.9

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations 374 447 422 366 327 445 440 400 339 458 451 408 1,826 1,608 1,611 1,657

 Purchase 227 335 319 266 216 337 333 295 236 356 348 306 1,177 1,147 1,181 1,246

 Refinance 147 111 103 100 111 108 107 105 103 102 104 102 650 461 431 411

Refinance Share (%) 39% 25% 24% 27% 34% 24% 24% 26% 30% 22% 23% 25% 36% 29% 27% 25%

February 11, 2019

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from January 31, 2019.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: Projected single-family mortgage origination volumes are as of February 15, 2019.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating 

Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend 

on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided 

in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. 

The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views 

of Fannie Mae or its management.

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