Housing Forecast: November 2017

17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 2016 2017 2018

Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts 1,238 1,167 1,165 1,190 1,205 1,250 1,265 1,280 1,290 1,300 1,310 1,320 1,174 1,190 1,250

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 839 825 846 840 860 900 920 940 950 960 970 980 782 838 905

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 9.4% 7.2% 8.1%

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 399 342 319 350 345 350 345 340 340 340 340 340 392 352 345

New Single-Family Home Sales 617 605 603 620 621 642 662 678 690 704 706 725 561 611 651

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 12.0% 9.0% 6.4%

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops) 5,620 5,563 5,393 5,365 5,445 5,502 5,576 5,677 5,638 5,596 5,647 5,655 5,452 5,485 5,550

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 3.8% 0.6% 1.2%

Total Home Sales (New + Existing) 6,237 6,168 5,997 5,985 6,066 6,145 6,238 6,355 6,328 6,301 6,353 6,380 6,013 6,097 6,201

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 4.5% 1.4% 1.7%

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New 312 317 316 332 329 335 332 349 343 346 343 359 307 319 336

Median Total Existing 231 254 252 247 243 268 266 259 254 277 274 267 232 246 259

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (% Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 6.4% 6.6% 5.9% 5.8% 5.9% 5.8% 5.4% 5.1% 4.5% 3.6% 3.4% 3.2% 6.3% 5.8% 5.1%

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 3.6 4.0 4.1

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 2.9 3.2 3.5

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations 408 490 468 438 358 475 464 412 342 460 458 409 2,052 1,805 1,710

 Purchase 217 328 311 276 212 333 335 294 228 347 346 300 1,052 1,133 1,173

 Refinance 191 162 157 162 147 142 129 118 115 113 111 109 1,000 672 536

Refinance Share (%) 47% 33% 34% 37% 41% 30% 28% 29% 33% 25% 24% 27% 49% 37% 31%

November 13, 2017

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from October 31, 2017.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating 

Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend 

on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided 

in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. 

The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views 

of Fannie Mae or its management.

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