Housing Forecast: November 2018

18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 2017 2018 2019 2020

Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts 1,317 1,261 1,218 1,263 1,261 1,263 1,265 1,270 1,272 1,273 1,274 1,273 1,203 1,265 1,265 1,273

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 889 896 870 895 906 915 923 930 934 937 939 940 849 888 919 938

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 8.6% 4.6% 3.5% 2.1%

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 428 365 347 368 355 348 342 340 338 336 335 333 354 377 346 336

New Single-Family Home Sales 656 633 580 620 625 629 632 634 635 637 638 640 613 622 630 637

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 9.3% 1.5% 1.2% 1.1%

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops) 5,507 5,413 5,273 5,336 5,379 5,406 5,427 5,441 5,449 5,454 5,457 5,459 5,511 5,382 5,413 5,455

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 1.1% -2.3% 0.6% 0.8%

Total Home Sales (New + Existing) 6,163 6,046 5,854 5,956 6,004 6,035 6,059 6,075 6,084 6,091 6,095 6,099 6,124 6,005 6,043 6,092

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 1.8% -1.9% 0.6% 0.8%

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New 331 314 323 354 347 329 337 368 359 337 344 375 323 330 345 353

Median Total Existing 244 266 264 260 256 278 275 270 264 285 281 275 247 258 270 277

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (% Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 7.3% 6.5% 6.0% 5.4% 4.4% 4.8% 4.3% 4.1% 3.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.2% 6.9% 5.4% 4.1% 2.2%

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.6 4.9 5.0

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 3.2 3.8 4.4 4.5

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations 374 447 418 386 322 443 437 401 331 453 447 408 1,826 1,624 1,603 1,639

 Purchase 227 335 318 290 222 342 337 302 234 355 348 310 1,177 1,170 1,203 1,246

 Refinance 147 111 100 96 101 100 100 100 97 98 99 99 650 454 401 393

Refinance Share (%) 39% 25% 24% 25% 31% 23% 23% 25% 29% 22% 22% 24% 36% 28% 25% 24%

November 9, 2018

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from October 31, 2018.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating 

Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend 

on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided 

in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. 

The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views 

of Fannie Mae or its management.

 --------------- 2018 --------------- --------------- 2019 --------------- --------------- 2020 ---------------