Housing Forecast: June 2020

19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 2019 2020 2021

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,204 1,257 1,288 1,433 1,487 1,000 1,060 1,130 1,165 1,190 1,224 1,259 1,290 1,169 1,210

 Percent Change: YoY 3.2 -9.4 3.4

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 859 850 897 964 965 770 795 820 835 852 878 905 888 837 868

 Percent Change: YoY 1.4 -5.7 3.6

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 345 407 390 469 522 230 265 310 330 338 346 354 402 332 342

 Percent Change: YoY 7.5 -17.5 3.1

 Total Home Sales 5,865 5,954 6,108 6,130 6,186 4,805 5,510 5,091 5,537 5,764 5,871 5,964 6,023 5,398 5,784

 Percent Change: YoY 1.1 -10.4 7.1

 New Single-Family 669 661 698 710 703 680 655 626 632 640 648 665 683 666 646

 Percent Change: YoY 10.7 -2.5 -3.0

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,197 5,293 5,410 5,420 5,483 4,125 4,855 4,465 4,905 5,124 5,223 5,299 5,340 4,732 5,138

 Percent Change: YoY 0.0 -11.4 8.6

NSA, Thous. $

 Median New Home Price 312 321 317 327 329 328 322 327 329 334 326 332 322 326 330

 Median Existing Home Price 253 277 277 272 272 283 281 273 272 288 285 277 272 277 280

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 FHFA Purchase-Only Index 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.3 5.8 1.4 1.3 0.4 0.7 2.3 1.8 2.1 5.3 0.4 2.1

Percent

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.9 3.2 2.9

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 3.6 3.1 2.7

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 334 540 716 715 768 1,027 689 517 494 651 628 552 2,304 3,000 2,325

 Purchase 227 360 381 322 299 307 342 268 229 359 357 314 1,291 1,216 1,259

 Refinance 107 180 335 392 468 720 347 248 265 292 271 238 1,013 1,784 1,066

 Refinance Share (Percent) 32 33 47 55 61 70 50 48 54 45 43 43 44 59 46

 --------------- 2019 --------------- --------------- 2020 --------------- --------------- 2021 ---------------

June 10, 2020

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from May 29, 2020.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or 

expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, 

analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. 

Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the 

views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.