Housing Forecast: June 2021

20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 2020 2021 2022

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,485 1,086 1,440 1,575 1,602 1,615 1,649 1,600 1,548 1,538 1,535 1,535 1,380 1,616 1,539

 Percent Change: YoY 6.9 17.2 -4.8

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 981 774 1,041 1,220 1,156 1,165 1,227 1,214 1,161 1,146 1,140 1,137 991 1,190 1,146

 Percent Change: YoY 11.6 20.2 -3.7

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 504 312 399 356 446 450 422 386 387 392 395 398 389 426 393

 Percent Change: YoY -3.3 9.5 -7.8

 Total Home Sales 6,190 5,092 7,077 7,582 7,225 6,610 6,489 6,608 6,545 6,524 6,513 6,515 6,462 6,732 6,525

 Percent Change: YoY 7.3 4.2 -3.1

 New Single-Family 703 708 973 926 921 910 919 928 904 889 878 876 822 919 887

 Percent Change: YoY 20.4 11.8 -3.5

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,487 4,383 6,103 6,657 6,303 5,700 5,570 5,680 5,641 5,635 5,635 5,639 5,640 5,813 5,638

 Percent Change: YoY 5.6 3.1 -3.0

NSA, Thous. $

 Median New Home Price 330 323 333 354 353 365 372 385 374 381 383 395 335 369 383

 Median Existing Home Price 272 288 309 311 314 326 346 338 332 340 356 347 295 331 344

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 FHFA Purchase-Only Index 6.3 5.8 8.1 11.0 12.7 13.0 11.0 8.0 5.3 4.2 3.1 2.9 11.0 8.0 2.9

Percent

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.3

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 2.7 2.9

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 752 1,096 1,346 1,342 1,265 1,194 869 774 663 822 823 746 4,536 4,102 3,054

 Purchase 290 353 513 489 366 489 495 458 362 528 535 463 1,645 1,808 1,889

 Refinance 462 742 833 853 899 705 373 316 301 293 288 283 2,891 2,293 1,165

 Refinance Share (Percent) 61 68 62 64 71 59 43 41 45 36 35 38 64 56 38

 --------------- 2020 --------------- --------------- 2021 --------------- --------------- 2022 ---------------

June 10, 2021

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from May 28, 2021.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: FHFA Purchase-Only Index and median home price forecasts are updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's 

business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although 

the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, 

current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, 

forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.