Housing Forecast: December 2021

21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 2020 2021 2022 2023

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,599 1,588 1,555 1,572 1,613 1,656 1,617 1,576 1,546 1,522 1,507 1,510 1,380 1,578 1,616 1,522

 Percent Change: YoY 6.9 14.4 2.4 -5.8

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 1,156 1,107 1,094 1,106 1,168 1,226 1,199 1,171 1,145 1,124 1,111 1,113 991 1,116 1,191 1,124

 Percent Change: YoY 11.6 12.6 6.8 -5.7

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 443 482 461 466 445 430 418 405 401 398 396 397 389 463 425 398

 Percent Change: YoY -3.3 19.0 -8.3 -6.2

 Total Home Sales 7,200 6,571 6,770 7,142 7,007 6,852 6,747 6,679 6,629 6,576 6,529 6,514 6,462 6,920 6,821 6,562

 Percent Change: YoY 7.3 7.1 -1.4 -3.8

 New Single-Family 896 737 713 764 832 912 918 897 883 868 858 859 822 778 890 867

 Percent Change: YoY 20.4 -5.4 14.4 -2.6

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 6,303 5,833 6,057 6,378 6,175 5,940 5,829 5,782 5,746 5,708 5,671 5,655 5,640 6,143 5,932 5,695

 Percent Change: YoY 5.6 8.9 -3.4 -4.0

NSA, Thous. $

 Median New Home Price 365 381 406 420 426 428 444 453 448 446 458 464 335 393 438 454

 Median Existing Home Price 314 351 356 368 366 395 389 397 385 411 402 407 295 347 387 401

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 FHFA Purchase-Only Index 13.1 17.7 18.5 16.6 14.8 11.0 8.8 7.4 5.0 4.4 3.2 2.9 11.2 16.6 7.4 2.9

Percent

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.5

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.1 2.6 2.7 3.1

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 1,238 1,131 1,108 975 736 905 868 837 701 838 813 761 4,374 4,452 3,346 3,114

 Purchase 367 501 516 498 395 569 553 516 401 576 555 512 1,572 1,881 2,032 2,044

 Refinance 871 630 592 477 341 337 315 321 300 262 259 249 2,802 2,571 1,314 1,070

 Refinance Share (Percent) 70 56 53 49 46 37 36 38 43 31 32 33 64 58 39 34

 --------------- 2021 --------------- --------------- 2022 --------------- --------------- 2023 ---------------

December 10, 2021

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from November 30, 2021.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: FHFA Purchase-Only Index and median home price forecasts are updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business 

prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases 

its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any 

particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the 

ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.