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Housing Forecast: July 2022

21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 2021 2022 2023

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,581 1,591 1,569 1,679 1,720 1,640 1,432 1,308 1,273 1,248 1,252 1,284 1,601 1,525 1,264

 Percent Change: YoY 16.0 -4.8 -17.1

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 1,138 1,112 1,104 1,170 1,187 1,087 952 866 842 835 850 880 1,127 1,023 852

 Percent Change: YoY 13.8 -9.2 -16.7

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 443 479 465 509 533 553 480 442 431 412 402 404 474 502 412

 Percent Change: YoY 21.8 5.9 -17.8

 Total Home Sales 7,140 6,704 6,781 6,959 6,835 5,894 5,372 5,160 5,058 5,065 5,184 5,310 6,891 5,816 5,154

 Percent Change: YoY 6.6 -15.6 -11.4

 New Single-Family 853 754 715 755 779 668 636 588 584 591 607 636 771 668 604

 Percent Change: YoY -6.2 -13.4 -9.5

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 6,287 5,950 6,067 6,203 6,057 5,226 4,735 4,572 4,474 4,474 4,577 4,675 6,120 5,148 4,550

 Percent Change: YoY 8.5 -15.9 -11.6

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 Fannie Mae HPI 12.9 17.2 19.3 19.0 20.5 19.9 17.4 16.0 11.3 7.8 6.3 4.4 19.0 16.0 4.4

Percent: Quarterly Avg, Annual Avg

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.8 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.0 4.9 3.0 5.0 5.1

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.9 4.0 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.2 2.6 4.0 4.4

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 1,239 1,122 1,102 1,007 740 657 596 542 418 605 619 581 4,469 2,534 2,223

 Purchase 367 501 518 477 384 497 482 416 307 479 480 439 1,863 1,778 1,705

 Refinance 871 620 584 530 356 160 114 127 111 126 138 143 2,606 756 518

 Refinance Share (Percent) 70 55 53 53 48 24 19 23 27 21 22 25 58 30 23

 --------------- 2021 --------------- --------------- 2022 --------------- --------------- 2023 ---------------

July 11, 2022

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from June 30, 2022; all other forecasts are based on the date above.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: The Fannie Mae HPI forecast is updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's 

business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although 

the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, 

current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, 

forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.