Confidential - Internal Distribution

Housing Forecast: October 2016

15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 2015 2016 2017

Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts 986 1,156 1,156 1,135 1,151 1,159 1,176 1,205 1,255 1,300 1,325 1,360 1,112 1,173 1,310

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 643 709 745 755 790 755 746 770 820 870 900 940 715 765 883

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 10.3% 7.1% 15.3%

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 343 447 411 380 361 405 430 435 435 430 425 420 397 408 428

New Single-Family Home Sales 521 493 487 508 529 572 631 650 654 665 674 692 501 595 671

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 14.6% 18.8% 12.7%

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops) 5,050 5,280 5,403 5,200 5,300 5,503 5,347 5,290 5,368 5,532 5,525 5,421 5,250 5,360 5,462

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 6.3% 2.1% 1.9%

Total Home Sales (New + Existing) 5,571 5,773 5,890 5,708 5,829 6,075 5,977 5,940 6,022 6,197 6,199 6,113 5,751 5,955 6,133

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 7.0% 3.6% 3.0%

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New 293 290 301 305 305 313 317 321 321 328 332 336 297 314 329

Median Total Existing 203 228 227 221 216 239 239 233 227 251 251 244 220 232 243

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (% Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 5.2% 5.6% 5.7% 5.9% 6.0% 5.6% 5.3% 5.2% 5.0% 5.1% 4.8% 4.8% 5.9% 5.2% 4.8%

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.9 3.6 3.5

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 3.0

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations 397 511 438 384 346 505 522 459 343 424 417 365 1,730 1,832 1,550

 Purchase 165 269 271 217 189 291 285 247 179 283 289 250 922 1,012 1,002

 Refinance 232 242 167 167 157 214 237 211 164 141 128 115 808 820 548

Refinance Share (%) 58% 47% 38% 43% 45% 42% 45% 46% 48% 33% 31% 32% 47% 45% 35%

October 10, 2016

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from September 30, 2016.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

 2015 mortgage originations were revised as part of an annual benchmark to the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA)

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating 

Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend 

on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided 

in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. 

The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views 

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