Housing Forecast: January 2017

16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 2015 2016 2017 2018

Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts 1,151 1,159 1,145 1,200 1,190 1,215 1,250 1,280 1,310 1,330 1,340 1,350 1,112 1,164 1,234 1,333

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 790 755 758 835 810 825 860 900 920 940 960 980 715 785 849 950

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 10.3% 9.8% 8.2% 11.9%

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 361 405 387 365 380 390 390 380 390 390 380 370 397 379 385 383

New Single-Family Home Sales 529 565 584 588 585 600 624 653 659 673 688 703 501 566 616 680

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 14.6% 13.1% 8.7% 10.6%

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops) 5,300 5,503 5,383 5,517 5,407 5,521 5,544 5,568 5,515 5,568 5,672 5,780 5,250 5,426 5,510 5,634

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 6.3% 3.3% 1.6% 2.2%

Total Home Sales (New + Existing) 5,829 6,068 5,967 6,105 5,992 6,121 6,168 6,221 6,174 6,240 6,360 6,482 5,751 5,992 6,125 6,314

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 7.0% 4.2% 2.2% 3.1%

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New 305 313 306 323 322 331 322 339 337 344 333 350 297 311 329 341

Median Total Existing 216 239 240 234 228 253 252 245 239 263 261 254 220 232 245 254

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (% Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 6.1% 5.9% 6.0% 5.7% 5.4% 5.7% 5.3% 5.2% 4.6% 4.1% 3.7% 3.6% 5.9% 5.7% 5.2% 3.6%

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 3.6 4.2 4.3

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.9 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.3 2.9 3.4 3.6

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations 359 489 572 520 350 431 418 370 308 419 423 385 1,730 1,940 1,568 1,535

 Purchase 189 291 286 253 190 300 303 265 210 323 329 292 922 1,019 1,058 1,154

 Refinance 170 198 286 267 160 131 114 104 98 95 94 93 808 922 510 381

Refinance Share (%) 47% 41% 50% 51% 46% 30% 27% 28% 32% 23% 22% 24% 47% 48% 33% 25%

January 10, 2017

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from December 30, 2016.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating 

Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend 

on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided 

in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. 

The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views 

of Fannie Mae or its management.

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