Housing Forecast: July 2021

20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 2020 2021 2022

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,485 1,086 1,440 1,575 1,599 1,609 1,659 1,627 1,569 1,548 1,536 1,528 1,380 1,623 1,545

 Percent Change: YoY 6.9 17.7 -4.8

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 981 774 1,041 1,220 1,156 1,144 1,198 1,220 1,175 1,152 1,137 1,130 991 1,179 1,148

 Percent Change: YoY 11.6 19.1 -2.6

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 504 312 399 356 443 465 461 407 394 396 399 398 389 444 397

 Percent Change: YoY -3.3 14.1 -10.6

 Total Home Sales 6,190 5,092 7,077 7,582 7,204 6,581 6,430 6,616 6,608 6,573 6,538 6,510 6,462 6,708 6,557

 Percent Change: YoY 7.3 3.8 -2.2

 New Single-Family 703 708 973 926 901 798 865 933 914 893 876 871 822 874 889

 Percent Change: YoY 20.4 6.3 1.6

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,487 4,383 6,103 6,657 6,303 5,783 5,565 5,683 5,694 5,680 5,662 5,639 5,640 5,834 5,669

 Percent Change: YoY 5.6 3.4 -2.8

NSA, Thous. $

 Median New Home Price 330 323 333 354 361 379 389 407 406 408 415 429 335 384 414

 Median Existing Home Price 272 288 309 311 314 338 361 357 353 365 385 376 295 342 370

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 FHFA Purchase-Only Index 6.3 5.8 8.1 11.0 12.7 17.9 16.2 14.8 12.1 6.8 6.6 5.1 11.0 14.8 5.1

Percent

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.2

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 2.7 2.8

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 752 1,096 1,346 1,342 1,256 1,191 958 797 693 866 875 798 4,536 4,202 3,232

 Purchase 290 353 513 489 357 494 516 463 372 548 560 485 1,645 1,830 1,965

 Refinance 462 742 833 853 899 697 442 334 322 319 315 312 2,891 2,371 1,267

 Refinance Share (Percent) 61 68 62 64 72 58 46 42 46 37 36 39 64 56 39

 --------------- 2020 --------------- --------------- 2021 --------------- --------------- 2022 ---------------

July 12, 2021

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from June 30, 2021.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: FHFA Purchase-Only Index and median home price forecasts are updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's 

business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although 

the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, 

current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, 

forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.