Housing Forecast: October 2018

17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 2017 2018 2019

Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts 1,231 1,171 1,172 1,259 1,317 1,261 1,225 1,265 1,282 1,305 1,310 1,315 1,203 1,267 1,303

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 835 828 849 894 889 896 875 915 940 960 970 980 849 894 963

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 8.6% 5.3% 7.7%

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 396 342 322 365 428 365 350 350 342 345 340 335 354 373 341

New Single-Family Home Sales 619 604 584 655 656 635 626 640 659 676 688 692 613 639 679

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 9.3% 4.3% 6.2%

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops) 5,600 5,547 5,403 5,593 5,507 5,413 5,354 5,336 5,379 5,406 5,427 5,441 5,510 5,402 5,413

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 1.1% -2.0% 0.2%

Total Home Sales (New + Existing) 6,219 6,151 5,987 6,249 6,163 6,048 5,980 5,976 6,038 6,082 6,114 6,133 6,123 6,042 6,092

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 1.9% -1.3% 0.8%

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New 312 317 323 335 331 314 342 354 347 328 357 368 323 335 350

Median Total Existing 231 254 253 247 244 266 268 260 256 278 279 270 247 259 271

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (% Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 6.4% 6.7% 6.7% 6.9% 7.3% 6.5% 6.0% 5.4% 4.4% 4.8% 4.3% 4.1% 6.9% 5.4% 4.1%

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.0 4.5 4.8

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 3.2 3.8 4.3

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations 403 492 477 455 374 447 428 386 323 444 453 405 1,826 1,635 1,625

 Purchase 225 341 323 288 227 335 328 290 223 344 353 305 1,177 1,181 1,224

 Refinance 177 151 154 167 147 111 100 96 101 100 100 100 650 454 401

Refinance Share (%) 44% 31% 32% 37% 39% 25% 23% 25% 31% 23% 22% 25% 36% 28% 25%

October 15, 2018

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from September 28, 2018.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating 

Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend 

on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided 

in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. 

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