Housing Forecast: October 2017

16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 2016 2017 2018

Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts 1,153 1,158 1,150 1,248 1,238 1,167 1,180 1,230 1,270 1,290 1,310 1,330 1,174 1,204 1,300

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 787 756 761 834 839 825 835 850 900 940 960 980 782 837 945

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 9.4% 7.1% 12.9%

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 367 401 389 414 399 342 345 380 370 350 350 350 392 366 355

New Single-Family Home Sales 526 562 588 568 617 603 561 572 621 642 662 678 561 589 651

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 12.0% 4.9% 10.6%

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops) 5,357 5,477 5,380 5,547 5,620 5,563 5,265 5,260 5,445 5,502 5,576 5,677 5,450 5,427 5,550

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 3.8% -0.4% 2.3%

Total Home Sales (New + Existing) 5,883 6,038 5,968 6,115 6,237 6,167 5,826 5,831 6,066 6,145 6,237 6,355 6,011 6,015 6,201

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 4.5% 0.1% 3.1%

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New 299 308 304 315 312 317 321 332 329 335 338 349 307 321 338

Median Total Existing 216 239 239 234 231 254 253 247 243 268 267 259 232 246 259

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (% Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 6.0% 5.9% 6.3% 6.3% 6.4% 6.6% 5.9% 5.8% 5.9% 5.8% 5.4% 5.1% 6.3% 5.8% 5.1%

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 3.6 4.0 4.1

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.9 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 2.9 3.2 3.5

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations 376 521 589 565 407 489 465 427 359 476 468 415 2,052 1,788 1,718

 Purchase 189 304 299 260 217 328 312 268 213 334 339 296 1,052 1,126 1,182

 Refinance 187 217 290 306 190 160 153 159 147 142 129 118 1,000 662 536

Refinance Share (%) 50% 42% 49% 54% 47% 33% 33% 37% 41% 30% 28% 29% 49% 37% 31%

October 10, 2017

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from September 29 2017.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

 2016 mortgage originations were revised as part of an annual benchmark to the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA)

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating 

Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend 

on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided 

in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. 

The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views 

of Fannie Mae or its management.

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Conf i dent i al - I nt er nal Di s t r i but i on