Housing Forecast: January 2018

17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 2016 2017 2018 2019

Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts 1,238 1,167 1,172 1,265 1,267 1,275 1,278 1,285 1,292 1,305 1,310 1,315 1,174 1,210 1,276 1,306

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 839 825 848 905 915 925 930 940 950 960 970 980 782 854 928 965

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 9.4% 9.3% 8.6% 4.0%

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 399 342 324 360 352 350 348 345 342 345 340 335 392 356 349 341

New Single-Family Home Sales 617 605 586 678 623 666 693 695 687 706 718 721 561 622 669 708

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 12.0% 10.8% 7.7% 5.8%

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops) 5,620 5,563 5,387 5,645 5,626 5,630 5,642 5,676 5,647 5,699 5,776 5,799 5,450 5,554 5,644 5,730

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 3.8% 1.9% 1.6% 1.5%

Total Home Sales (New + Existing) 6,237 6,168 5,973 6,323 6,249 6,297 6,335 6,371 6,334 6,405 6,494 6,520 6,011 6,175 6,313 6,438

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 4.5% 2.7% 2.2% 2.0%

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New 312 317 322 332 328 334 340 349 344 347 351 361 307 321 338 351

Median Total Existing 231 254 253 247 243 267 267 259 255 278 276 268 232 246 259 269

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (% Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 6.5% 6.9% 6.5% 5.6% 6.4% 5.6% 5.7% 5.6% 4.4% 4.1% 3.5% 3.5% 6.4% 5.6% 5.6% 3.5%

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 3.6 4.0 4.0 4.1

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 2.9 3.2 3.6 3.7

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations 409 491 477 453 366 483 466 415 344 467 461 417 2,052 1,830 1,731 1,690

 Purchase 217 328 311 286 218 342 338 297 229 354 350 308 1,052 1,143 1,195 1,242

 Refinance 191 163 166 167 148 142 129 118 115 113 111 109 1,000 687 536 448

Refinance Share (%) 47% 33% 35% 37% 40% 29% 28% 28% 33% 24% 24% 26% 49% 38% 31% 27%

January 10, 2018

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from December 29, 2017.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating 

Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend 

on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided 

in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. 

The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views 

of Fannie Mae or its management.

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