Housing Forecast: September 2021

20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 2020 2021 2022

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,485 1,086 1,440 1,575 1,599 1,586 1,582 1,636 1,649 1,605 1,558 1,523 1,380 1,601 1,584

 Percent Change: YoY 6.9 16.0 -1.1

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 981 774 1,041 1,220 1,156 1,107 1,139 1,170 1,204 1,175 1,140 1,118 991 1,143 1,159

 Percent Change: YoY 11.6 15.4 1.4

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 504 312 399 356 443 479 443 466 445 430 418 405 389 458 425

 Percent Change: YoY -3.3 17.6 -7.2

 Total Home Sales 6,190 5,092 7,077 7,582 7,200 6,572 6,440 6,495 6,596 6,589 6,559 6,487 6,462 6,676 6,558

 Percent Change: YoY 7.3 3.3 -1.8

 New Single-Family 703 708 973 926 896 739 735 789 882 898 884 862 822 790 881

 Percent Change: YoY 20.4 -3.9 11.6

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,487 4,383 6,103 6,657 6,303 5,833 5,705 5,706 5,714 5,691 5,675 5,625 5,640 5,887 5,676

 Percent Change: YoY 5.6 4.4 -3.6

NSA, Thous. $

 Median New Home Price 330 323 333 354 365 378 389 407 410 407 415 429 335 385 415

 Median Existing Home Price 272 288 309 311 314 351 361 357 353 379 385 376 295 346 373

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 FHFA Purchase-Only Index 6.3 5.8 8.2 11.1 12.9 17.4 16.2 14.8 12.1 6.8 6.6 5.1 11.1 14.8 5.1

Percent

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.1 2.9 3.1

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 3.1 2.6 2.7

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 752 1,096 1,346 1,342 1,257 1,151 1,073 847 699 864 883 805 4,536 4,329 3,251

 Purchase 290 353 513 489 358 494 515 458 367 535 557 482 1,645 1,826 1,941

 Refinance 462 742 833 853 899 657 558 390 332 329 326 323 2,891 2,503 1,310

 Refinance Share (Percent) 61 68 62 64 71 57 52 46 48 38 37 40 64 58 40

 --------------- 2020 --------------- --------------- 2021 --------------- --------------- 2022 ---------------

September 10, 2021

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from August 31, 2021.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: FHFA Purchase-Only Index and median home price forecasts are updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's 

business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although 

the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, 

current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, 

forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.