Housing Forecast: March 2018

17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 2017 2018 2019

Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts 1,238 1,167 1,172 1,256 1,300 1,290 1,278 1,285 1,292 1,305 1,310 1,315 1,203 1,288 1,306

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 839 825 848 893 900 915 930 940 950 960 970 980 849 921 965

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 8.6% 8.5% 4.7%

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 399 342 324 363 400 375 348 345 342 345 340 335 354 367 341

New Single-Family Home Sales 617 605 587 652 630 667 693 695 687 706 718 721 612 671 708

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 9.1% 9.7% 5.5%

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops) 5,600 5,547 5,403 5,593 5,455 5,610 5,660 5,690 5,647 5,699 5,776 5,799 5,510 5,604 5,730

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 1.1% 1.7% 2.3%

Total Home Sales (New + Existing) 6,217 6,152 5,991 6,245 6,086 6,276 6,353 6,385 6,335 6,405 6,494 6,520 6,122 6,275 6,438

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 1.8% 2.5% 2.6%

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New 312 317 323 333 328 334 341 352 346 350 356 365 321 339 354

Median Total Existing 231 254 253 247 243 268 267 260 256 280 279 270 246 260 271

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (% Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 6.5% 6.8% 6.7% 6.7% 7.3% 6.6% 6.7% 6.6% 4.9% 4.8% 4.3% 3.8% 6.7% 6.6% 3.8%

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.0 4.4 4.6

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.2 3.8 4.1

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations 409 491 477 465 384 466 440 399 341 467 462 418 1,842 1,689 1,688

 Purchase 217 328 311 278 217 340 337 297 231 357 353 309 1,134 1,191 1,250

 Refinance 192 163 166 187 167 125 103 103 110 110 109 109 708 498 438

Refinance Share (%) 47% 33% 35% 40% 44% 27% 23% 26% 32% 23% 24% 26% 38% 29% 26%

March 12, 2018

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from February 28, 2018.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating 

Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend 

on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided 

in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. 

The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views 

of Fannie Mae or its management.

 --------------- 2017 --------------- --------------- 2018 --------------- --------------- 2019 ---------------