Housing Forecast: October 2019

18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 2018 2019 2020

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,321 1,260 1,233 1,185 1,213 1,256 1,290 1,298 1,281 1,277 1,259 1,250 1,250 1,264 1,267

 Percent Change: YoY 3.9 1.1 0.2

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 893 894 876 828 864 847 900 905 909 912 899 892 876 879 903

 Percent Change: YoY 3.2 0.3 2.7

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 428 365 357 357 349 409 390 393 372 365 360 358 374 385 364

 Percent Change: YoY 5.6 3.0 -5.6

 Total Home Sales 6,149 6,039 5,913 5,722 5,875 5,948 6,115 6,110 6,104 6,086 6,040 6,012 5,957 6,012 6,061

 Percent Change: YoY -2.7 0.9 0.8

 New Single-Family 642 632 607 579 669 661 690 680 676 674 665 662 617 675 669

 Percent Change: YoY 0.7 9.4 -0.8

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,507 5,407 5,307 5,143 5,207 5,287 5,425 5,430 5,428 5,412 5,375 5,350 5,340 5,337 5,391

 Percent Change: YoY -3.1 -0.1 1.0

NSA, Thous. $

 Median New Home Price 331 314 326 322 312 319 341 338 328 335 356 351 326 327 342

 Median Existing Home Price 244 266 264 256 253 277 276 268 265 291 289 279 259 268 272

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 FHFA Purchase-Only Index 7.3 6.7 6.4 6.0 5.4 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.3 4.6 4.1 6.0 5.2 4.1

Percent

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 4.5 3.9 3.6

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.8 3.6 3.2

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 410 508 465 383 352 532 598 556 363 513 511 468 1,766 2,038 1,855

 Purchase 252 367 342 273 244 377 352 303 241 368 366 314 1,234 1,277 1,288

 Refinance 157 141 123 111 108 154 247 253 122 145 145 154 532 761 566

 Refinance Share (Percent) 38 28 26 29 31 29 41 45 34 28 28 33 30 37 31

 --------------- 2018 --------------- --------------- 2019 --------------- --------------- 2020 ---------------

October 10, 2019

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from September 30, 2019.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or 

expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, 

analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. 

Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the 

views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.