Housing Forecast: November 2023

23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.4 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.4 2022 2023 2024 2025

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,385 1,450 1,359 1,348 1,255 1,208 1,211 1,250 1,293 1,325 1,351 1,378 1,553 1,386 1,231 1,337

 Percent Change: YoY -3.0 -10.8 -11.2 8.6

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 834 930 961 938 866 854 874 902 929 953 976 1,001 1,005 916 874 965

 Percent Change: YoY -10.8 -8.9 -4.5 10.4

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 552 520 398 410 389 354 337 348 363 373 375 377 547 470 357 372

 Percent Change: YoY 15.5 -14.1 -24.0 4.2

 Total Home Sales 4,965 4,941 4,747 4,605 4,546 4,572 4,753 4,887 5,029 5,171 5,331 5,517 5,671 4,815 4,689 5,262

 Percent Change: YoY -17.7 -15.1 -2.6 12.2

 New Single-Family 638 691 724 698 644 626 667 681 691 702 716 733 641 688 654 710

 Percent Change: YoY -16.9 7.3 -4.8 8.6

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 4,327 4,250 4,023 3,907 3,902 3,946 4,086 4,205 4,338 4,469 4,615 4,784 5,030 4,127 4,035 4,551

 Percent Change: YoY -17.8 -18.0 -2.2 12.8

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 Fannie Mae HPI 4.5 2.9 5.3 6.7 6.7 5.2 3.6 2.8 1.6 0.5 0.0 -0.4 8.0 6.7 2.8 -0.4

Percent: Quarterly Avg, Annual Avg

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 6.4 6.5 7.0 7.7 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 5.3 6.9 7.3 6.9

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 341 431 400 362 322 485 531 500 445 593 613 563 2,374 1,533 1,837 2,214

 Purchase 281 360 336 303 258 385 396 370 286 436 447 420 1,644 1,281 1,409 1,589

 Refinance 59 71 63 59 64 100 135 130 159 157 166 143 730 252 428 625

 Refinance Share (Percent) 17 16 16 16 20 21 25 26 36 27 27 25 31 16 23 28

November 13, 2023

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from October 31, 2023; all other forecasts are based on the date above.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: The Fannie Mae HPI forecast is updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Freddie Mac. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business 

prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases 

its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any 

particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the 

ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management. 

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