Housing Forecast: April 2022

21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 2021 2022 2023

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,599 1,588 1,562 1,670 1,726 1,619 1,556 1,526 1,470 1,401 1,347 1,290 1,597 1,607 1,377

 Percent Change: YoY 15.8 0.6 -14.3

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 1,156 1,107 1,096 1,166 1,198 1,129 1,100 1,070 1,016 959 932 895 1,126 1,125 950

 Percent Change: YoY 13.6 -0.1 -15.5

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 443 482 465 503 528 490 456 456 454 442 415 395 472 482 426

 Percent Change: YoY 21.2 2.3 -11.6

 Total Home Sales 7,183 6,687 6,766 6,963 6,829 6,338 6,216 6,133 5,969 5,789 5,693 5,592 6,890 6,379 5,761

 Percent Change: YoY 6.6 -7.4 -9.7

 New Single-Family 896 737 699 760 795 798 785 773 763 740 710 686 770 788 725

 Percent Change: YoY -6.3 2.3 -8.0

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 6,287 5,950 6,067 6,203 6,034 5,540 5,431 5,360 5,207 5,048 4,983 4,907 6,120 5,592 5,036

 Percent Change: YoY 8.5 -8.6 -9.9

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 Fannie Mae HPI 12.9 17.3 19.4 19.2 19.8 15.9 12.9 10.8 6.5 5.4 4.3 3.2 19.2 10.8 3.2

Percent: Quarterly Avg, Annual Avg

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.8 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 3.0 4.3 4.5

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.0 2.6 3.6 4.0

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 1,239 1,123 1,103 1,012 757 759 684 616 502 657 654 597 4,477 2,816 2,411

 Purchase 368 503 519 482 373 552 536 466 374 525 509 446 1,871 1,927 1,853

 Refinance 871 620 584 530 384 207 147 150 128 132 146 152 2,606 889 558

 Refinance Share (Percent) 70 55 53 52 51 27 22 24 26 20 22 25 58 32 23

 --------------- 2021 --------------- --------------- 2022 --------------- --------------- 2023 ---------------

April 11, 2022

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from March 31, 2022; all other forecasts are based on the date above.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: The Fannie Mae HPI forecast is updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's 

business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although 

the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, 

current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, 

forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.