Housing Forecast: September 2015

14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 2014 2015 2016

Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts 934 984 1,029 1,055 978 1,155 1,150 1,150 1,175 1,205 1,236 1,281 1,003 1,108 1,224

Single-Family (1 Unit) 610 624 654 700 643 708 730 750 780 810 836 881 648 708 827

Percent Change: Year-over-Year 4.9% 9.3% 16.8%

Multifamily (2+ Units) 324 360 375 356 335 447 420 400 395 395 400 400 355 401 398

New Single-Family Home Sales 424 425 439 472 517 503 510 524 535 557 561 593 437 514 562

Percent Change: Year-over-Year 1.9% 17.5% 9.4%

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops) 4,677 4,887 5,057 5,060 4,973 5,300 5,453 5,422 5,353 5,407 5,436 5,509 4,940 5,287 5,427

Percent Change: Year-over-Year -2.9% 7.0% 2.6%

Total Home Sales (New + Existing) 5,101 5,312 5,495 5,532 5,490 5,803 5,963 5,946 5,889 5,964 5,998 6,102 5,377 5,801 5,988

Percent Change: Year-over-Year -2.6% 7.9% 3.2%

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New 274 282 278 301 293 285 290 315 306 294 301 329 283 296 307

Median Total Existing 191 212 216 208 203 228 226 217 212 235 234 226 208 219 227

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 6.8% 5.5% 4.8% 5.0% 5.3% 5.4% 4.8% 4.5% 4.5% 3.2% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.5%

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 3.9 4.1

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.45 2.9 3.0 3.3

1-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.08 2.4 2.5 2.9

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations 240 312 336 296 345 438 371 323 250 330 332 307 1,184 1,477 1,219

Purchase 123 190 194 169 138 220 229 212 152 235 240 218 676 798 845

Refinance 116 122 142 127 207 218 142 112 98 94 92 89 508 679 373

Refinance Share (%) 49% 39% 42% 43% 60% 50% 38% 35% 39% 29% 28% 29% 43% 46% 31%

September 10, 2015

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from August 31, 2015.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research group

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating

Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend

on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided

in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results.

The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views

of Fannie Mae or its management.

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