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Housing Forecast: January 2022

21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 2020 2021 2022 2023

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,599 1,588 1,562 1,600 1,633 1,675 1,635 1,587 1,560 1,538 1,523 1,524 1,380 1,587 1,632 1,536

 Percent Change: YoY 6.9 15.1 2.8 -5.9

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 1,156 1,107 1,096 1,115 1,163 1,229 1,200 1,175 1,151 1,129 1,117 1,119 991 1,118 1,192 1,129

 Percent Change: YoY 11.6 12.9 6.6 -5.3

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 443 482 465 485 470 445 435 412 409 409 407 404 389 469 441 407

 Percent Change: YoY -3.3 20.5 -6.0 -7.6

 Total Home Sales 7,200 6,571 6,755 7,102 7,015 6,861 6,750 6,693 6,653 6,598 6,554 6,540 6,462 6,910 6,830 6,586

 Percent Change: YoY 7.3 6.9 -1.2 -3.6

 New Single-Family 896 737 698 735 812 910 918 900 887 872 862 864 822 770 885 871

 Percent Change: YoY 20.4 -6.3 14.9 -1.6

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 6,303 5,833 6,057 6,367 6,203 5,951 5,832 5,794 5,766 5,727 5,692 5,676 5,640 6,140 5,945 5,715

 Percent Change: YoY 5.6 8.9 -3.2 -3.9

NSA, Thous. $

 Median New Home Price 365 381 405 421 429 431 446 455 452 451 463 469 335 393 440 459

 Median Existing Home Price 314 351 356 369 368 398 392 400 389 416 407 411 295 348 389 406

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 FHFA Purchase-Only Index 13.1 17.7 18.5 17.3 15.5 11.8 9.3 7.6 5.4 4.9 3.8 3.3 11.2 17.3 7.6 3.3

Percent

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.5

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.6 2.7 3.0

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 1,239 1,132 1,103 964 735 911 866 826 705 846 822 768 4,374 4,437 3,338 3,141

 Purchase 367 501 517 476 401 573 557 519 406 583 563 519 1,572 1,861 2,049 2,071

 Refinance 871 631 586 488 334 338 309 307 300 262 259 249 2,802 2,576 1,289 1,070

 Refinance Share (Percent) 70 56 53 51 45 37 36 37 42 31 32 32 64 58 39 34

 --------------- 2021 --------------- --------------- 2022 --------------- --------------- 2023 ---------------

January 10, 2022

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from December 30, 2021.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: FHFA Purchase-Only Index and median home price forecasts are updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business 

prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases 

its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any 

particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the 

ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.