15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 2015 2016 2017

Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts 986 1,156 1,156 1,135 1,151 1,156 1,206 1,235 1,285 1,330 1,361 1,371 1,112 1,187 1,337

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 643 709 745 755 790 756 785 800 850 900 936 951 715 783 909

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 10.3% 9.6% 16.2%

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 343 447 411 380 361 401 421 435 435 430 425 420 397 404 428

New Single-Family Home Sales 521 493 487 508 529 575 592 576 589 610 623 634 501 568 614

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 14.6% 13.4% 8.2%

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops) 5,050 5,280 5,403 5,200 5,300 5,503 5,531 5,355 5,424 5,583 5,601 5,585 5,250 5,422 5,548

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 6.3% 3.3% 2.3%

Total Home Sales (New + Existing) 5,571 5,773 5,890 5,708 5,829 6,078 6,123 5,931 6,013 6,194 6,225 6,219 5,751 5,990 6,163

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 7.0% 4.2% 2.9%

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New 293 290 301 305 305 308 317 321 320 322 331 335 297 312 327

Median Total Existing 203 228 227 221 216 239 239 232 226 250 250 243 220 231 242

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (% Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 5.2% 5.6% 5.7% 5.9% 6.0% 5.6% 5.4% 5.3% 5.0% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 5.9% 5.3% 4.7%

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.6 3.5

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 3.0

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations 394 508 434 374 338 506 519 439 334 428 414 372 1,711 1,803 1,548

 Purchase 165 269 271 211 181 289 287 248 181 289 286 256 916 1,005 1,012

 Refinance 229 239 164 163 157 218 232 191 153 139 128 115 795 797 536

Refinance Share (%) 58% 47% 38% 44% 46% 43% 45% 43% 46% 33% 31% 31% 46% 44% 35%

September 9, 2016

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from August 31, 2016.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research Group

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business 

prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group 

bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any 

particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the 

ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.

 Housing Forecast: September 2016

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