15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 2014 2015 2016 2017

National Income and Product Accounts (Chained 2009$)

Percent Change: Quarterly SAAR, Annual Q4/Q4

 Gross Domestic Product 0.6 3.9 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.4 2.3

 Personal Consumption Expenditures 1.8 3.6 3.0 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 3.2 2.7 2.7 2.3

 Residential Fixed Investment 10.1 9.3 7.3 7.7 7.0 8.1 8.1 9.1 4.4 4.5 4.2 3.2 5.1 8.6 8.1 4.0

 Business Fixed Investment 1.6 4.1 2.4 1.5 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.2 3.6 4.0 5.5 2.4 2.9 3.4

 Government Consumption & Investment -0.1 2.6 1.7 2.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.4 1.6 0.8 1.2

Billions of Chained 2009$

 Net Exports -541 -535 -544 -542 -556 -558 -562 -578 -582 -596 -602 -606 -443 -540 -564 -596

 Change in Business Inventories 113 114 90 71 78 70 61 66 58 60 62 62 68 97 69 60

Price Indices

Percent Change: Quarterly SAAR, Annual Q4/Q4

GDP Price Index 0.1 2.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.7 1.9

Consumer Price Index -3.1 3.0 1.6 0.6 1.9 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 1.2 0.5 2.0 2.1

Consumer Price Index (Quarterly YOY % Change, Annual YOY % Change) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 1.6 0.1 1.7 2.1

Consumer Price Index excl. Food & Energy 1.7 2.5 1.7 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.9

Consumer Price Index excl. Food & Energy (Quarterly YOY % Change, Annual YOY % Change) 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9

Employment

Unemployment Rate (Percent) 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 6.2 5.3 4.8 4.6

Employment, Total Nonfarm Establishment Survey (Percent Change: Quarterly SAAR, Annual Q4/Q4) 2.2 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.1 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.2

Interest Rates (Percent)

Federal Funds Rate 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.3

1-Year Treasury Note Yield 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.9 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.8

10-Year Treasury Bond Yield 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.1 2.4 2.6

December 10, 2015

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from November 30, 2015.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research Group

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected 

results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, 

forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the 

information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do 

not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.

Economic Forecast: December 2015

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