Housing Forecast: April 2020

19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 2019 2020 2021

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,213 1,256 1,282 1,441 1,500 960 1,044 1,173 1,208 1,241 1,274 1,307 1,290 1,169 1,258

 Percent Change: YoY 3.2 -9.3 7.5

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 864 847 894 970 988 695 754 846 871 896 921 946 888 821 909

 Percent Change: YoY 1.4 -7.6 10.7

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 349 409 388 470 512 265 290 327 337 345 353 361 402 349 349

 Percent Change: YoY 7.4 -13.2 0.1

 Total Home Sales 5,865 5,954 6,108 6,130 6,385 4,199 4,617 5,352 5,512 5,914 6,049 6,099 6,022 5,139 5,894

 Percent Change: YoY 1.1 -14.7 14.7

 New Single-Family 669 661 698 710 738 444 597 624 637 656 674 692 682 601 665

 Percent Change: YoY 10.5 -11.9 10.7

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,197 5,293 5,410 5,420 5,647 3,755 4,020 4,728 4,875 5,258 5,375 5,407 5,340 4,538 5,229

 Percent Change: YoY 0.0 -15.0 15.2

NSA, Thous. $

 Median New Home Price 312 321 317 326 327 328 322 327 327 334 326 332 321 326 330

 Median Existing Home Price 253 277 277 272 265 283 281 273 265 288 285 277 272 275 279

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 FHFA Purchase-Only Index 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.1 4.1 1.4 1.3 0.4 0.7 2.3 1.8 2.1 5.1 0.4 2.1

Percent

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.9 3.3 2.9

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.6 3.0 2.5

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 334 540 716 708 618 700 613 589 507 684 672 597 2,298 2,520 2,459

 Purchase 227 360 381 316 261 271 291 287 229 376 376 328 1,284 1,110 1,309

 Refinance 107 180 335 392 358 429 322 302 278 308 296 269 1,013 1,411 1,150

 Refinance Share (Percent) 32 33 47 55 58 61 53 51 55 45 44 45 44 56 47

 --------------- 2019 --------------- --------------- 2020 --------------- --------------- 2021 ---------------

April 10, 2020

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from March 31, 2020.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or 

expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, 

analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. 

Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the 

views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.