Housing Forecast: January 2020

19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 2018 2019 2020 2021

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,213 1,256 1,282 1,354 1,350 1,354 1,364 1,371 1,393 1,410 1,428 1,445 1,250 1,276 1,360 1,419

 Percent Change: YoY 3.9 2.1 6.6 4.4

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 864 847 894 939 957 969 982 991 1,010 1,025 1,039 1,053 876 886 975 1,032

 Percent Change: YoY 3.2 1.1 10.0 5.9

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 349 409 388 415 393 385 382 380 383 385 389 392 374 390 385 387

 Percent Change: YoY 5.6 4.3 -1.3 0.6

 Total Home Sales 5,875 5,948 6,126 6,137 6,150 6,153 6,137 6,143 6,168 6,185 6,205 6,223 5,957 6,022 6,146 6,195

 Percent Change: YoY -2.7 1.1 2.1 0.8

 New Single-Family 669 661 699 721 724 725 723 731 747 759 770 781 617 688 726 764

 Percent Change: YoY 0.7 11.4 5.6 5.2

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,207 5,287 5,427 5,416 5,426 5,428 5,414 5,412 5,421 5,426 5,435 5,443 5,340 5,334 5,420 5,431

 Percent Change: YoY -3.1 -0.1 1.6 0.2

NSA, Thous. $

 Median New Home Price 312 321 316 337 327 338 331 352 339 348 339 360 326 322 337 347

 Median Existing Home Price 253 277 277 268 265 291 291 279 275 300 298 286 259 269 282 290

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 FHFA Purchase-Only Index 5.5 5.2 4.9 5.0 4.8 5.0 5.0 4.6 3.8 3.1 2.6 2.5 6.0 5.0 4.6 2.5

Percent

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 4.5 3.9 3.7 3.7

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.8 3.6 3.3 3.3

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 336 539 708 602 463 554 543 501 397 547 531 493 1,766 2,184 2,061 1,968

 Purchase 229 359 377 302 252 392 385 341 269 408 399 353 1,234 1,266 1,370 1,430

 Refinance 107 180 331 300 211 161 157 160 128 138 131 140 532 918 690 538

 Refinance Share (Percent) 32 33 47 50 46 29 29 32 32 25 25 28 30 42 33 27

 --------------- 2019 --------------- --------------- 2020 --------------- --------------- 2021 ---------------

January 10, 2020

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from December 31, 2019.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected 

results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, 

forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the 

information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and 

do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.