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                        Research and Insights
                        Forecast
                        Existing Sales Rise in January as Mortgage Rates Eased
    Economic & Housing Weekly Note
Existing Sales Rise in January as Mortgage Rates Eased
February 23, 2024
**Key Takeaways:**

**Existing home sales** rose 3.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 4.00 million in January, according to the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), the largest one-month percentage increase in 11 months and the strongest pace of sales since August 2023. The months’ supply of homes declined one-tenth to 3.0 as the increase in sales outpaced the 2.0 percent increase in the number of homes available for sale. According to the NAR, the median price of existing homes sold rose 5.1 percent compared to a year ago.
	The minutes from the **Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)** showed that “most participants noted the risks of moving too quickly to ease the stance of policy,” while only a “couple of participants” noted downside risks to the economy if policy remained overly restrictive for too long. Regarding the balance sheet runoff, “many participants suggested that it would be appropriate to begin in-depth discussions” as to the pace of runoff at their next meeting.**Forecast Impact:**

The gain in existing home sales was in line with our expectations given the decline in mortgage rates in November and December (when most of these sales would have gone under contract) and a pickup in mortgage applications. While we continue to expect a gradual recovery in existing home sales over the course of 2024, we note some downside risk to this forecast as mortgage rates have ticked back up to 6.9 percent, as of the latest Freddie Mac survey, causing mortgage applications to pull back. Rates have responded to the more hawkish Fed stance, which was reiterated in the minutes this week. We currently expect three cuts this year, with the first occurring in June.





Nathaniel Drake
Economic and Strategic Research Group
February 23, 2024

*Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.*

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