Homebuyers, Owners, & Renters
      
      Homebuyers, Owners, and Renters

          
                        Business Partners
                  Single-Family Business

Helping lenders serve homebuyers and homeowners with affordable mortgages
    
          Multifamily Business

Financing for quality, affordable rental housing in every market, every day
    
          Capital Markets

Reducing risk and enhancing housing finance liquidity
          About Us
                toggle
                Who We Are
                                              toggle
                        Awards and Recognition
                                                      Diversity and Inclusion
                                                              toggle
                                Employee Resource Groups
                                                                      Progress With Purpose
                                                      Employee Code of Conduct
                                                      Community Engagement
                                                      History
                                      What We Do
                                              toggle
                        Duty to Serve
                                                              toggle
                                Manufactured Housing
                                                                      Affordable Housing Preservation
                                                                      Rural Housing
                                                                      Research Initiatives
                                                                      Colonias Investment Areas
                                                      Homeownership
                                                              toggle
                                Access to Mortgage Credit
                                                                      Restrictive Covenants
                                                      Innovation
                                                      Mortgage Finance in America
                                                      Financial Performance
                                                      Disaster Resiliency and Relief
                                                      Pilot Transparency
                                      Leadership Team
                                      Corporate Governance
                                              toggle
                        Corporate Governance Guidelines
                                                      Fannie Mae Charter
                                                      Board of Directors
                                                      Committees
                                                      Committee Charters
                                                      Code of Conduct
                                                      Bylaws
                                                      Contacting the Board of Directors
                                                      Housing Reports
                                      Investor Relations
                                              toggle
                        Quarterly and Annual Results
                                                      Annual Reports
                                                      SEC Filings
                                                              toggle
                                All SEC Filings
                                                                      Annual Filings
                                                                      Quarterly Filings
                                                                      Current Reports
                                                                      Section 16 Filings
                                                                      Proxy Filings
                                                      Additional Disclosures
                                                              toggle
                                Monthly Summary
                                                                      Capital Disclosures
                                                      Stock Information
                                                      Current Stock Information
                                                      Contact Information
                                      ESG
                                              toggle
                        Learn about our business
                                                      Environmental
                                                      Social
                                                              toggle
                                Equitable Housing Finance Plan
                                                      Governance
                                                      Sustainable Bonds
                                                              toggle
                                Green Bonds
                                                                      Social Bonds
                                                      Reports & Disclosures
                                                              toggle
                                2021 ESG Report
                                      Research & Insights
                                              toggle
                        Forecast
                                                              toggle
                                Monthly Archive
                                                                      Weekly Archive
                                                      Surveys & Indices
                                                              toggle
                                National Housing Survey
                                                                      Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey
                                                                      Fannie Mae Home Price Index
                                                                      Refinance Application-Level Index
                                                                      Special Topics
                                                      Publications
                                                              toggle
                                Fannie Mae Working Papers
                                                                      Housing Insights
                                                                      Partner Research
                                                                      Publications Archive
                                                      Perspectives
                                                              toggle
                                Archive - 2020
                                                                      Archive - 2021
                                                                      Archive - 2022
                                                                      Archive - 2023
                                      Newsroom
                                              toggle
                        News
                                                      Media Resources
          
                        Careers
                toggle
                Our Teams
                                              toggle
                        Corporate Teams
                                                      Data & Analytics
                                                      Digital & Technology
                                                      Mortgage & Customer Solutions
                                                      Risk Management
                                      Life at Fannie Mae
                                      Diversity & Inclusion
                                      Benefits & Professional Development
                                      Campus
          
                        Contact Us
                      
            Google Translate Disclaimer
            The Google Translate feature is a third-party service that is available for informational purposes only. Fannie Mae is unable to guarantee the accuracy of any translation resulting from the tool and is not responsible for any event or damage that occurs as a result of using the translations generated by the Google Translate feature.
            OK
  Translate
        Translation Disclaimer
          Chinese, Traditional
            English
            Filipino
            Korean
            Spanish
            Vietnamese
 FM Site Nav
  

        

Homepage
                    
      Fannie Mae logo
    Toggle navigation
      Rent
                
                All Renter Resources
                                      The Rental Process
                                      Make Your Rent Count
                                      Credit Basics
                      
            Buy
                
                All Homebuyer Resources
                                      7 Steps to Homeownership
                                      HomeView Homeownership Education Course
                      
            Own
                
                All Homeowner Resources
                                      Make the Most of Your Home
                                      Refinancing Your Mortgage
                                      When It’s Time to Sell
                      
            Get Relief
                  Manage Financial Uncertainty

All Resources to Manage Financial Uncertainty

Help for Homeowners

Help for Renters

Protect Yourself from Fraud
    
          Recover from a Disaster

All Resources for Recovering from a Disaster

Recovery Assistance for Homeowners

Recovery Assistance for Renters

Protect Yourself from Fraud
                      
            Calculators & Tools
                
                All Calculators & Tools
                                      Tools for Renters
                                      Tools for Homebuyers
                                      Tools for Homeowners
                                      HomeView® Homeownership Education Course
                                      Glossary
                                      Mobile AppToggle search
 Skip to main content
          
    
    Home
                        Research and Insights
                        Forecast
                        Employment Gains Remain Strong Despite Continued Contraction in Manufacturing Activity
    Economic & Housing Weekly Note
Employment Gains Remain Strong Despite Continued Contraction in Manufacturing Activity
January 5, 2024
**Key Takeaways:**

**Nonfarm payroll employment** rose by 216,000 in December, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). However, October and November job gains were revised downward by a combined 71,000. The unemployment rate was constant at 3.7 percent but the labor force participation rate pulled back three-tenths to 62.5 percent, its lowest level since February. Wage growth was warm again as average hourly earnings increased 0.4 percent for the second consecutive month, bringing the year-over-year comparison to 4.1 percent.
	**The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)** showed job openings declined by 62,000 to 8.8 million in November, though October data was revised upward, according to the BLS. The quits rate declined one-tenth to 2.2 percent, its lowest level since September 2020. Layoffs and discharges remained historically low at 1.5 million, compared to the 2019 average of 1.8 million.
	**The ISM Manufacturing Index** increased 0.7 points to 47.4 in December, still well below the expansionary threshold of 50. While the production index crossed the expansionary threshold with a 1.8-point gain to 50.3, the typically leading new orders index was down 1.2 points to 47.1. After a sharp gain in November, the non-seasonally adjusted prices paid index declined 4.7 points in December to 45.2, indicating ongoing price declines.
	**Light vehicle sales** increased 4.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 16.2 million in December, according to Autodata.
	**Private residential construction spending**, rose 1.1 percent in November, according to the Census Bureau. Spending on single-family and multifamily construction rose 2.9 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively, while spending on improvements declined 0.8 percent.
	The minutes from the **Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)** December 12-13 meeting indicated that officials revised their baseline target range for the federal funds rate downward in light of "better-than-expected data on inflation." Still, there was not a clear path set forward for when or how often to cut the policy rate, though all but two officials signaled rates would likely be lower by the end of 2024 in the Summary of Economic Projections.**Forecast Impact:**

While the headline payroll number indicated a modest acceleration in job gains in December, the gains were broad-based, with the biggest gains concentrated in less-cyclical sectors, including government and health care. Additionally, the household survey was far less rosy as it showed a decline of 683,000 jobs and 676,000 people leaving the labor force. While the headline job gains number is a strong one, we see some conflicting signals that could indicate the labor market is set to soften in 2024. November’s JOLTS survey was also consistent with cooler labor market conditions and weaker wage growth as the quits rate fell to its lowest level since 2018. Admittedly, the lower quits rate, which is typically indicative of future wage growth, is a bit at odds with two consecutive prints of 0.4 percent month-over-month wage growth, but we continue to believe that wage growth will slow to a level that is more consistent with 2 percent inflation over time.

The ISM manufacturing index continued to signal weakness in that sector, consistent with a slowdown in economic growth in 2024. Still, more positive residential construction numbers and signs of easing financial conditions present upside risk to our current 2024 growth forecast.



Nathaniel Drake
Economic and Strategic Research Group
January 5, 2024

*Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.*

TOPICS
  
Fannie Mae Corporate
  
  
      Twitter
              Facebook
              Linkedin
              Email
Research and Insights
                                                              Forecast
                                                              Monthly Archive
                                    Weekly Archive
                                    Surveys & Indices
                                    Publications
                                    Perspectives

Our Company
    About Us
      Contact Us
      Careers
      Investor Relations
      Newsroom
      Research & Insights
      ESG
  Business Partners
    Single-Family Business
      Multifamily Business
      Capital Markets
	      Suppliers
      Developer Portal
  Homebuyers, Owners, & Renters
    Educational Resources
      Credit Basics
      HomeView Homeownership Education Course
      HomePath - Search for Homes
      Make Your Rent CountCalculators & Tools
      All Calculators and Tools      Glossary of Key Terms
      Mortgage Calculator
      Down Payment Assistance Search Tool
      Mobile AppLet Us Help You
      Contact a Housing Counselor
      Manage Financial Uncertainty
      Recover from a Disaster
    
    
  

      
Social media
  

        
            Follow us
          Follow us
          Facebook
          Twitter
          LinkedIn
          Instagram
    Footer
  

        
            Legal
          Privacy
          Digital Accessibility
                Cookie Preferences
            © 2024 Fannie Mae