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Starts for new multifamily rental and condominium construction have remained robust in 2021, in the wake of 

the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the Dodge Data & Analytics Supply Track construction pipeline. As shown 

in the chart below, the total number of new apartment rental units started in the first half of 2021 increased 

5.8% from the same period of 2020 to approximately 216,000 units, and it is also up from approximately 208,000 

units that were started in the first half of 2019. Revised data for the full year of 2020 show apartments units 

started declined just 1.0% in 2020 from the prior year, to 437,000 units.

As has been case for more than 12 years, the vast majority of multifamily units started consisted of apartment 

rental units. Just 23,200 condo units were started during the first half of 2021, down slightly from 23,600 units in 

the first half of 2020, according to Dodge Data & Analytics. 

Census Bureau Starts Rise Year Over Year 

The Census Bureau’s estimated multifamily starts has averaged 453,500 units for the first half of 2021, which 

includes condominiums and two- to four-unit properties. This is quite the robust increase compared to the 

408,000 units started during the first half of 2020. Fannie Mae forecasts that multifamily starts will increase by 

more than 14% in 2021 from the prior year, rising to 444,000 units. The ongoing elevated levels of supply 

continue to appear inflated compared to the lows that were reached after the Great Recession, but multifamily 

starts remain well below the record 1 million units started in 1973 and the more than 670,000 units in 1984.

Multifamily Economic and Market Commentary

AUGUST 2021

Mid-2021 Multifamily Construction Update 

Source: Dodge Data & Analytics

Note: Q2 2021 project starts are preliminary and subject to significant revision

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Thousands

National Condo and Apartment Units Started

Apartments Condos
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Multifamily Economic and Market Commentary

Construction Pipeline Continues Rising

The Dodge Data & Analytics Supply Track construction pipeline data continues to show increased levels of 

new apartment rental units underway, as illustrated in the chart below. Nearly 778,000 units are estimated to 

be under construction as of July 2021, compared to 697,000 units in September 2020. Condo units have also 

seen a measurable increase, rising to around 78,000 units as of July 2021 compared to 72,000 units as of 

September 2020. 

Continued Robust Supply in Major Metros

As seen in the table on the next page, the most active multifamily rental development metro in the country 

remains New York City with nearly 115,000 units either recently completed or underway. Washington, D.C., 

continues to be in second place with 63,000 units. Dallas and Houston have over 47,000 units underway or 

recently completed, and Austin also has nearly 46,000 units being added. Los Angeles, Seattle, and Boston 

remain close behind, while Denver and Phoenix round out the top 10.

Much of the development currently underway is concentrated in about 15 to 20 metros, as seen in the table on 

the next page. In many metros, it is further concentrated in only a few submarkets. In addition, many units 

that are being developed primarily consist of more expensive, Class A apartment units. This is concerning in 

light of weaker fundamental multifamily performance that is currently taking place in the more expensive 

coastal metro areas that have had a slower economic recovery from the pandemic relative to smaller, less 

expensive areas. In particular, New York City and Washington, D.C. saw markedly rising vacancy rates into the 

first quarter of 2021, and both are poised for robust deliveries of new units later this year and into 2022.

Source: Dodge Data & Analytics

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National Condo and Apartment Completions and Units Underway

Apartments Condos
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# Projects Started

Avg. Units per project

Average Number of Units per Apartment Project Started

Average Project Size Number of Projects Started

Metro 2020 2021 2022 Beyond Total

New York 30,111 44,403 35,982 4,272 114,768

Washington, DC 16,266 18,417 23,935 4,208 62,826

Dallas 14,922 16,812 12,421 3,894 48,049

Houston 17,878 17,475 10,523 1,415 47,291

Austin 9,499 16,293 18,343 1,877 46,012

Los Angeles 9,000 18,263 12,270 2,806 42,339

Seattle 9,912 13,465 17,363 1,062 41,802

Boston 13,763 10,232 9,293 886 34,174

Denver 8,997 11,421 11,283 1,561 33,262

Phoenix 6,345 12,538 13,492 32,375

Minneapolis 10,777 11,600 9,849 32,226

Atlanta 9,382 11,393 8,820 669 30,264

Orlando 6,563 10,181 13,194 29,938

Miami 9,425 10,071 6,889 688 27,073

Nashville 4,403 8,154 13,092 680 26,329

Philadelphia 6,168 6,757 10,074 1,094 24,093

Chicago 8,898 7,666 4,981 649 22,194

San Antonio 6,718 8,355 5,624 798 21,495

Charlotte 6,993 7,456 7,042 21,491

Fort Worth 4,583 6,800 5,372 1,385 18,140

Tampa 3,874 6,591 6,698 17,163

Portland 6,216 6,983 3,262 147 16,608

Newark 4,110 4,805 5,410 1,860 16,185

Oakland 6,448 3,843 3,698 1,136 15,125

San Diego 2,669 5,331 4,947 2,073 15,020

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Multifamily Economic and Market Commentary

Texas is also noteworthy for the large volume of 

deliveries expected in Austin, Houston, and DallasFort Worth. However, unlike New York City and 

Washington, D.C., these metros’ vacancy rate and 

rent growth measures have been improving since 

late 2020, and all are poised to continue besting the 

nation’s average economic growth rate over the next 

few months. 

Source: Dodge Data & Analytics

Project Size Increases Slightly

According to the Supply Track pipeline, the number 

of projects started in the first half of 2021 increased 

markedly, rising to 2,214 projects for the first six 

months of the year, up from 1,933 in the first half of 

2020, as seen in the chart below. The average 

number of units per project declined slightly year 

over year to approximately 98 units per project for 

the first half of 2021, slightly below the average of 

106 units for the same period of 2020.

The multifamily industry has been contending with robust levels of new construction for more than five years, and 

it looks like 2021 will be no different. Fortunately, the industry is experiencing a period of solid demand, due to the 

multi-year ongoing housing shortage, and the near-term rebound of pent-up, post-pandemic demand. While we 

expect overall rent and vacancy fundamental measures to remain healthy, given the ongoing deliveries of new 

units, it should also be expected that some metro areas will see modest increases in their vacancy rates in late 

2021 and into 2022. In addition, higher-end properties in the Class A segment may see notably rising vacancy rates, 

as this surge of construction is almost entirely comprised of these types of units. Overall, on a national scale, this 

newly delivered housing stock should eventually be absorbed by renters as the economy continues to recover.

2021 Multifamily Supply Will Likely Remain High

Units Recently Completed and Underway

Source: Dodge Data & Analytics

Note: Q2 2021 project starts are preliminary and subject to significant revision
Multifamily Economic and Market Commentary

4

Tim Komosa

Senior Manager

Fannie Mae Multifamily Economics and Strategic Research

August 19, 2021

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae’s Economic and 

Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as 

indicating Fannie Mae’s business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of

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