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Housing Forecast: September 2022

21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 2021 2022 2023

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,581 1,591 1,569 1,679 1,720 1,655 1,394 1,299 1,228 1,205 1,214 1,246 1,601 1,517 1,223

 Percent Change: YoY 16.0 -5.2 -19.4

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 1,138 1,112 1,104 1,170 1,187 1,088 852 775 761 789 811 847 1,127 976 802

 Percent Change: YoY 13.8 -13.5 -17.8

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 443 479 465 509 533 567 542 525 468 416 403 399 474 542 421

 Percent Change: YoY 21.8 14.3 -22.2

 Total Home Sales 7,140 6,704 6,781 6,959 6,833 5,985 5,123 4,863 4,772 4,885 5,061 5,196 6,891 5,707 4,978

 Percent Change: YoY 6.6 -17.2 -12.8

 New Single-Family 853 754 715 755 776 611 517 491 488 527 579 612 771 599 552

 Percent Change: YoY -6.2 -22.3 -7.9

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 6,287 5,950 6,067 6,203 6,057 5,373 4,606 4,372 4,284 4,358 4,482 4,584 6,120 5,109 4,427

 Percent Change: YoY 8.4 -16.5 -13.3

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 Fannie Mae HPI 12.9 17.2 19.3 18.9 20.5 19.4 17.4 16.0 11.3 7.8 6.3 4.4 18.9 16.0 4.4

Percent: Quarterly Avg, Annual Avg

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.8 5.2 5.4 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 3.0 5.0 5.6

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.9 4.0 4.5 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 3.2 3.8 3.6

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 1,297 1,145 1,122 1,007 741 673 506 517 412 599 605 555 4,570 2,437 2,170

 Purchase 371 510 529 490 395 510 410 391 300 474 477 430 1,900 1,706 1,681

 Refinance 926 635 593 516 345 163 97 126 112 125 128 124 2,670 731 490

 Refinance Share (Percent) 71 55 53 51 47 24 19 24 27 21 21 22 58 30 23

September 12, 2022

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from August 31, 2022; all other forecasts are based on the date above.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: The Fannie Mae HPI forecast is updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

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Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's 

business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although 

the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, 

current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, 

forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management. 

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