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Multifamily Economic and Market Commentary

NOVEMBER 2020

Fall 2020 Student Housing Update

When colleges and universities around the country began to shutdown earlier this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic,

the fall 2020 semester outlook became more uncertain. Finishing the spring semester remotely was a time in which

colleges and universities got to learn and adjust to a new learning environment. As a result, schools decided to

introduce a myriad of learning plans for the fall semester that included in-person, online, and hybrid learning plans, the

latter a combination of both in-person and online learning. However, as colleges and universities welcomed students

back to campus this fall, albeit in a limited capacity, the threat of the pandemic remained present.

One of the early takeaways from the fall 2020 semester is that overall enrollments are way down compared to the

previous school year. The decline in enrollments has a trickle-down effect on student housing fundamentals. We

believe that while the sector is performing slightly better than expected given the circumstances, it remains down

compared to the previous fall 2019 - spring 2020 school year. As long as the pandemic remains in place, we expect that

the student housing sector will continue to face a new reality that will likely lead to more short-term, as well as longerterm, changes.

Tracking COVID-19 Cases as Schools Reopened

As nearly all colleges and universities around the country closed their doors to on-site learning during the early part of 

the spring 2020 semester, there was much uncertainty regarding the ways in which many of these schools would 

approach the fall 2020 semester. Many colleges and universities announced a variety of learning options with some 

opting for in-person but socially distant learning, which resulted in bringing students back to campus. 

As of October 22, 2020 there were approximately 214,000 cases of COVID-19 at more than 1,600 colleges and 

universities, according to The New York Times. Some schools have been hit harder than others, but the data suggests 

that schools with larger student bodies have fared worse than smaller schools. 

Source: The New York Times

*Last updated on October 22, 2020

Colleges/Universities With Over 2,000 Cases of COVID-19

University State

# of COVID-19 

Cases

Clemson University SC 4,082

University of Georgia GA 4,049

University of Florida FL 3,634

Penn State University PA 3,456

Ohio State University OH 3,350

University of Wisconsin WI 3,258

Indiana University IN 3,139

University of Alabama AL 2,882

University of Illinois IL 2,802

University of Arizona AZ 2,433
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Multifamily Economic and Market Commentary

Source: Axiometrics, a RealPage Company

*Note 2020-2022* deliveries are not yet finalized, these totals are underway as of 8/31/20 

Off-Campus Student Housing Offers Choices in a Pandemic

In a typical year, new deliveries are at the forefront of the student housing sector. Each new school year allows for a 

holistic view of how many new beds are delivered and where they are located. However, as a result of the onset of the 

COVID-19 pandemic, new supply -- although still significant -- is not the most critical element this cycle. That is 

because off-campus completions of new supply has continued to moderate this year, continuing its downward trend 

since 2017, as illustrated in the chart below. 

Off-campus student housing does have a slight advantage over its on-campus counterpart this school year. Many 

colleges and universities across the country are still committing to distance/remote learning and as a result have 

closed dormitories on campus to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Off-campus student housing is not owned by the 

local college or university, so it presents students with an alternative living arrangement even if their school’s campus 

is not conducting in-person learning. Students can stay in their off-campus apartments for the full-term of their lease, 

which is usually 12 months, even if the school is not permitting students on campus.

Student Housing Deliveries (Beds) – through Fall 2022

Enrollments Still Down During COVID-19

College and university enrollment has been decreasing 

over the past seven years and 2020 data indicates that 

those declines have been exacerbated for the fall 2020 

semester. According to the National Student 

Clearinghouse Research Center, fall 2020 enrollments 

were down 4.0 percent as a result of COVID-19 

compared to fall 2019. Community colleges (public 

two-year institutions) have taken the largest 

enrollment hit on a year-over-year basis, declining by 

9.4 percent. 

Broken out by age groups, the first-time beginning 

students in the 21-24 age group enrolled at public 

four-year institutions contracted by nearly 41.0 

percent year-over-year. Overall first-time beginning 

students in all enrollment sectors and age groups is 

down approximately 16.1 percent compared to fall 

2019. 

54,000 46,000 38,000 45,000 39,000 39,000 34,000 36,000

18,000

14,000

9,000 9,000

15,000 11,000 6,000 19,000 19,000

12,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

Off-Campus On-Campus

-0.8 -1.4 -2.1 -0.8 -2.0 3.0 -1.1

-9.4

-1.1 -4.0

-15

-10

-5

0

5

Fall 2019 Fall 2020

% Change from Previous School Year

Undergraduate Enrollment Changes by 

Sector

Public 4-Yr Private NonProfit 4-Yr

Private ForProfit 4-Yr Public 2-Yr

Total

Source: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center
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Multifamily Economic and Market Commentary

Student Housing Fundamentals Impacted during COVID-19

We believe off-campus student housing is slightly better positioned than on-campus housing to handle some of the 

effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Off-campus properties provide students with the opportunity to still achieve some 

semblance of university life. In some instances, it can be easier to practice and enforce social distancing measures in 

an apartment compared to a dormitory. However, off-campus student housing properties are also impacted by 

declining enrollments. Fewer students means fewer potential residents, which, in turn, we expect to impact 

fundamentals across the board. 

For instance, data from RealPage, Inc., shows that as of August 2020 pre-leases for off-campus student housing 

properties were at approximately 87.6 percent for the fall 2020 school year, which is down 3.7 percent year-over-year. 

As the pandemic continued from May through August, pre-leases for off-campus student housing properties were 

consistently down 4.0 percent compared to the same months in 2019. While a decline of 4.0 percent may not appear 

to be overly significant, it could potentially have larger ramifications for student housing developers and operators if 

the pandemic continues into the following school year. 

With the decline in pre-leasing, occupancy levels have also been impacted. The occupancy estimate for off-campus 

student housing properties in the fall 2020 semester (as of September 2020) is currently at approximately 87 percent. 

This is a 4 percent decrease from the previous fall 2019 school year when occupancy levels were at 91 percent, as seen 

in the charts below. 

Pre-Lease % for Off-Campus Student Housing Properties in May-August

0

20

40

60

80

100

% Pre-Lease

Fall Occupancy Rates for Off-Campus Student Housing Properties 

Source: Axiometics, A RealPage Company. 

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

% Occupancy Rates
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Multifamily Economic and Market Commentary

Fluid College Reopening Plans

The Chronicle of Higher Education, a Washington, D.C.-based publication that focuses on the higher education sector, has 

been monitoring the fall 2020 reopening plan announcements of many colleges and universities. In its October 2020 

update, nearly all colleges and universities around the country tracked in its database had re-opened for the fall 2020 

semester in various learning capacities. Seventy-eight percent of the schools planned to conduct the semester with a 

hybrid model of in-person and online/remote classes. That is a stark difference from the June 2020 report stating that 68 

percent of schools planned to conduct classes in person. As of October 2020, only 4 percent of colleges and universities 

are conducting classes entirely in-person. As students returned to campus this past fall, the risk of spreading the virus 

increased. Many schools that had planned to host students on campus had to pivot to alternative reopening plans to 

mitigate the spread of the virus.

Planning for the Future

Much like the rest of the multifamily sector, the student housing sector is learning to adapt to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Due to the large social aspect of the college experience, we believe it seems unlikely that colleges and universities will 

deviate from their current array of learning options as there are stark differences between in-person and distance 

leaning. The on-campus student housing sector is expected to face headwinds complicated by the risk of having large 

amounts of students in dormitories, which typically consist of small, shared rooms and communal bathrooms. 

By contrast, the off-campus student housing sector offers residents a more social experience in which they can also 

better practice social distancing. Nevertheless, this sector faces its own headwinds. As a result of the large drop in total 

enrollments, off-campus fundamentals have also been impacted. Both pre-lease percentages and occupancy rates are 

at their lowest points in years, due to lower enrollment levels coupled with fewer students attending in-person. 

Declining enrollments, especially from non-U.S. students, were already troubling the student housing sector prepandemic, and, as a result, we believe that additional, future declines in college enrollment would further harm the 

sector over the longer-term.

Source: The Chronicle of Higher Education

23%

34%

21%

10%

4% 5% 3%

Primarily In-Person Primarily Online Hybrid Fully Online Fully In-Person Other Undetermined

Fall 2020 Reopening Plans for Colleges and Universities as of October 1, 2020
Multifamily Economic and Market Commentary

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Francisco Nicco-Annan

Lead Economist

Multifamily Economics and Research

November 9, 2020

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