15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 2015 2016 2017

Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts 986 1,156 1,156 1,135 1,151 1,187 1,236 1,285 1,340 1,347 1,361 1,371 1,112 1,215 1,355

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 643 709 745 755 790 775 815 850 905 917 936 951 715 808 927

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 10.3% 13.0% 14.8%

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 343 447 411 380 361 412 421 435 435 430 425 420 397 407 428

New Single-Family Home Sales 521 493 487 508 524 564 572 581 590 610 623 634 501 560 614

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 14.6% 11.8% 9.6%

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops) 5,050 5,280 5,403 5,200 5,290 5,486 5,551 5,351 5,425 5,584 5,601 5,584 5,250 5,420 5,549

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 6.3% 3.2% 2.4%

Total Home Sales (New + Existing) 5,571 5,773 5,890 5,708 5,814 6,050 6,124 5,932 6,015 6,194 6,225 6,218 5,751 5,980 6,163

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 7.0% 4.0% 3.1%

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New 293 290 301 305 300 305 317 321 315 319 331 335 297 310 325

Median Total Existing 203 228 227 221 216 240 239 232 226 251 250 243 220 232 242

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (% Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 5.3% 5.6% 5.7% 5.9% 5.7% 5.6% 5.4% 5.3% 5.0% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 5.9% 5.3% 4.7%

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.6 3.5

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 2.9 2.9 3.1

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations 394 508 434 374 339 497 500 412 333 428 419 370 1,711 1,748 1,550

 Purchase 165 269 271 211 181 290 295 250 182 291 293 256 916 1,015 1,022

 Refinance 229 239 164 163 158 207 205 162 151 137 126 113 795 733 528

Refinance Share (%) 58% 47% 38% 44% 47% 42% 41% 39% 45% 32% 30% 31% 46% 42% 34%

July 11, 2016

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from June 30, 2016.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research Group

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business 

prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group 

bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any 

particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the 

ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.

 Housing Forecast: July 2016

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