15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 2014 2015 2016 2017

Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts 978 1,158 1,158 1,125 1,180 1,215 1,251 1,281 1,315 1,337 1,376 1,391 1,003 1,105 1,232 1,355

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 643 706 745 735 770 810 846 881 915 937 956 971 648 707 827 945

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 4.9% 9.2% 16.9% 14.3%

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 335 451 414 390 410 405 405 400 400 400 420 420 355 398 405 410

New Single-Family Home Sales 517 497 483 484 513 547 567 593 607 623 638 647 437 496 555 629

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 1.9% 13.5% 11.9% 13.3%

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops) 4,973 5,297 5,477 5,060 5,198 5,332 5,421 5,466 5,491 5,504 5,551 5,569 4,940 5,202 5,354 5,529

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year -2.9% 5.3% 2.9% 3.3%

Total Home Sales (New + Existing) 5,490 5,794 5,960 5,544 5,711 5,879 5,989 6,059 6,097 6,127 6,189 6,216 5,377 5,698 5,909 6,157

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year -2.6% 6.0% 3.7% 4.2%

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New 293 290 302 317 308 303 316 333 323 315 328 345 283 300 315 328

Median Total Existing 203 228 227 218 214 238 237 229 224 248 247 238 208 219 230 239

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (% Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 5.3% 5.6% 5.7% 5.1% 5.1% 4.4% 4.6% 5.2% 5.0% 4.3% 4.0% 3.8% 5.0% 5.1% 5.2% 3.8%

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 3.9 4.1 4.2

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.0 2.9 3.3 3.6

1-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 2.4 2.5 2.9 3.2

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations 384 499 427 362 300 377 372 347 288 377 378 354 1,301 1,673 1,396 1,397

 Purchase 156 261 263 216 170 264 268 244 187 279 281 256 783 895 946 1,003

 Refinance 229 239 164 146 129 113 104 103 101 97 97 98 518 778 450 393

Refinance Share (%) 59% 48% 38% 40% 43% 30% 28% 30% 35% 26% 26% 28% 40% 46% 32% 28%

January 11, 2016

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from December 31, 2015.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research Group

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business 

prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group 

bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any 

particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the 

ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.

Housing Forecast: January 2016

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