Housing Forecast: December 2019

19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 2018 2019 2020 2021

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,213 1,256 1,282 1,328 1,339 1,340 1,356 1,368 1,386 1,404 1,420 1,436 1,250 1,270 1,351 1,412

 Percent Change: YoY 3.9 1.6 6.4 4.5

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 864 847 899 944 956 968 981 995 1,010 1,026 1,039 1,053 876 888 975 1,032

 Percent Change: YoY 3.2 1.4 9.8 5.8

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 349 409 382 384 383 372 375 373 376 378 381 383 374 381 376 380

 Percent Change: YoY 5.6 1.9 -1.4 1.0

 Total Home Sales 5,875 5,948 6,128 6,166 6,153 6,144 6,131 6,144 6,164 6,180 6,202 6,219 5,957 6,029 6,143 6,191

 Percent Change: YoY -2.7 1.2 1.9 0.8

 New Single-Family 669 661 701 730 722 720 723 734 747 759 770 781 617 690 725 764

 Percent Change: YoY 0.7 11.9 5.0 5.5

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,207 5,287 5,427 5,436 5,431 5,425 5,408 5,410 5,417 5,421 5,432 5,438 5,340 5,339 5,418 5,427

 Percent Change: YoY -3.1 0.0 1.5 0.2

NSA, Thous. $

 Median New Home Price 312 321 315 338 328 337 330 351 338 345 336 357 326 322 336 344

 Median Existing Home Price 253 277 277 268 265 291 290 279 274 297 295 283 259 269 281 288

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 FHFA Purchase-Only Index 5.5 5.2 4.9 5.2 5.0 5.3 4.6 4.1 3.3 2.5 2.3 2.0 6.0 5.2 4.1 2.0

Percent

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 4.5 3.9 3.6 3.6

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 5.7 4.8 3.8 3.3

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 371 543 654 581 451 553 541 499 396 543 527 489 1,766 2,147 2,044 1,955

 Purchase 252 344 382 305 257 391 383 339 268 404 395 349 1,234 1,284 1,370 1,417

 Refinance 118 198 272 276 194 161 157 160 128 138 131 140 532 864 673 538

 Refinance Share (Percent) 32 37 42 47 43 29 29 32 32 26 25 29 30 40 33 28

 --------------- 2019 --------------- --------------- 2020 --------------- --------------- 2021 ---------------

December 10, 2019

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from November 29, 2019.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected 

results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, 

forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the 

information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and 

do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.