Housing Forecast: July 2023

22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.4 2022 2023 2024

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,718 1,636 1,446 1,405 1,385 1,480 1,418 1,348 1,280 1,284 1,310 1,338 1,553 1,408 1,303

 Percent Change: YoY -3.0 -9.3 -7.4

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 1,182 1,084 901 850 834 915 927 907 873 876 894 915 1,005 896 890

 Percent Change: YoY -10.8 -10.9 -0.7

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 535 551 545 556 552 565 492 441 407 408 416 423 547 512 414

 Percent Change: YoY 15.5 -6.4 -19.3

 Total Home Sales 6,747 5,970 5,359 4,795 4,970 5,005 4,873 4,794 4,765 4,835 4,917 5,037 5,671 4,915 4,889

 Percent Change: YoY -17.7 -13.3 -0.5

 New Single-Family 763 603 583 598 644 742 751 712 665 670 675 684 641 712 674

 Percent Change: YoY -16.9 11.1 -5.4

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,983 5,367 4,777 4,197 4,327 4,263 4,122 4,082 4,100 4,165 4,242 4,353 5,030 4,203 4,215

 Percent Change: YoY -17.8 -16.4 0.3

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 Fannie Mae HPI 19.4 18.2 12.5 8.3 4.7 3.4 3.5 3.9 2.6 0.0 -0.1 -0.7 8.3 3.9 -0.7

Percent: Quarterly Avg, Annual Avg

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.8 5.2 5.6 6.7 6.4 6.5 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.9 5.3 6.6 6.1

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 774 683 534 396 324 443 435 416 345 518 550 488 2,386 1,617 1,902

 Purchase 386 495 426 327 265 372 375 341 261 406 407 363 1,633 1,352 1,437

 Refinance 388 188 108 69 59 71 59 75 84 112 143 126 753 264 465

 Refinance Share (Percent) 50 27 20 17 18 16 14 18 24 22 26 26 32 16 24

 --------------- 2022 --------------- --------------- 2023 --------------- --------------- 2024 ---------------

July 10, 2023

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from June 30, 2023; all other forecasts are based on the date above.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: The Fannie Mae HPI forecast is updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Freddie Mac. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or 

expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, 

analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. 

Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the 

views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.