Housing Forecast: December 2023

23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.4 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.4 2022 2023 2024 2025

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,385 1,450 1,367 1,379 1,318 1,254 1,254 1,282 1,330 1,367 1,386 1,407 1,553 1,395 1,277 1,372

 Percent Change: YoY -3.0 -10.1 -8.5 7.5

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 834 930 968 982 939 893 902 923 958 989 1,010 1,031 1,005 928 914 997

 Percent Change: YoY -10.8 -7.6 -1.5 9.1

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 552 520 399 397 380 361 352 359 372 377 375 375 547 467 363 375

 Percent Change: YoY 15.5 -14.7 -22.3 3.3

 Total Home Sales 4,965 4,941 4,723 4,507 4,588 4,694 4,881 5,005 5,158 5,305 5,458 5,627 5,671 4,785 4,792 5,387

 Percent Change: YoY -17.7 -15.6 0.1 12.4

 New Single-Family 638 691 703 692 655 651 688 697 713 729 741 755 641 681 673 734

 Percent Change: YoY -16.9 6.2 -1.2 9.1

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 4,327 4,250 4,020 3,815 3,933 4,043 4,193 4,308 4,446 4,576 4,717 4,872 5,030 4,104 4,119 4,653

 Percent Change: YoY -17.8 -18.4 0.4 13.0

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 Fannie Mae HPI 4.5 2.9 5.3 6.7 6.7 5.2 3.6 2.8 1.6 0.5 0.0 -0.4 8.0 6.7 2.8 -0.4

Percent: Quarterly Avg, Annual Avg

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 6.4 6.5 7.0 7.4 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.1 5.3 6.8 6.7 6.2

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 341 430 402 355 322 501 546 520 471 624 632 581 2,374 1,528 1,889 2,308

 Purchase 281 360 337 298 259 394 406 379 293 445 456 428 1,644 1,276 1,438 1,622

 Refinance 59 71 65 56 63 107 140 141 178 178 176 153 730 252 451 686

 Refinance Share (Percent) 17 16 16 16 20 21 26 27 38 29 28 26 31 16 24 30

December 11, 2023

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from November 30, 2023; all other forecasts are based on the date above.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: The Fannie Mae HPI forecast is updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Freddie Mac. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business 

prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases 

its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any 

particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the 

ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management. 

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