Housing Forecast: September 2023

22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.4 2022 2023 2024

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,718 1,636 1,446 1,405 1,385 1,443 1,437 1,386 1,312 1,280 1,287 1,314 1,553 1,413 1,298

 Percent Change: YoY -3.0 -9.0 -8.1

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 1,182 1,084 901 850 834 927 963 932 906 899 911 923 1,005 914 910

 Percent Change: YoY -10.8 -9.1 -0.5

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 535 551 545 556 552 516 474 454 406 381 376 391 547 499 389

 Percent Change: YoY 15.5 -8.9 -22.1

 Total Home Sales 6,747 5,970 5,359 4,795 4,965 4,939 4,745 4,695 4,696 4,820 4,952 5,039 5,671 4,837 4,877

 Percent Change: YoY -17.7 -14.7 0.8

 New Single-Family 763 603 583 598 638 689 702 691 662 686 695 698 641 681 685

 Percent Change: YoY -16.9 6.3 0.6

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,983 5,367 4,777 4,197 4,327 4,250 4,043 4,004 4,034 4,134 4,257 4,341 5,030 4,156 4,191

 Percent Change: YoY -17.8 -17.4 0.8

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 Fannie Mae HPI 19.4 18.2 12.5 8.3 4.7 3.4 3.5 3.9 2.6 0.0 -0.1 -0.7 8.3 3.9 -0.7

Percent: Quarterly Avg, Annual Avg

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.8 5.2 5.6 6.7 6.4 6.5 7.0 7.1 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.3 5.3 6.7 6.5

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 774 683 534 396 321 439 409 392 335 490 554 497 2,386 1,561 1,875

 Purchase 386 495 426 327 261 369 350 330 260 388 416 369 1,633 1,310 1,433

 Refinance 388 188 108 69 59 70 59 63 75 102 138 128 753 251 442

 Refinance Share (Percent) 50 27 20 17 19 16 14 16 22 21 25 26 32 16 24

September 11, 2023

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from August 31, 2023; all other forecasts are based on the date above.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: The Fannie Mae HPI forecast is updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Freddie Mac. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or 

expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, 

analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. 

Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the 

views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management. 

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