Housing Forecast: November 2020

20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 2019 2020 2021 2022

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,484 1,079 1,430 1,427 1,428 1,450 1,482 1,508 1,526 1,545 1,560 1,579 1,290 1,355 1,467 1,553

 Percent Change: YoY 3.2 5.0 8.3 5.8

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 968 766 1,040 1,085 1,101 1,119 1,139 1,158 1,173 1,185 1,193 1,203 888 965 1,129 1,188

 Percent Change: YoY 1.4 8.7 17.1 5.2

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 517 313 390 342 327 331 343 350 353 361 367 376 402 390 338 364

 Percent Change: YoY 7.5 -3.0 -13.5 7.9

 Total Home Sales 6,184 5,016 7,099 7,159 6,672 6,323 6,321 6,336 6,364 6,407 6,460 6,494 6,023 6,365 6,413 6,431

 Percent Change: YoY 1.1 5.7 0.8 0.3

 New Single-Family 701 703 973 943 932 861 864 868 875 876 882 891 683 830 881 881

 Percent Change: YoY 10.7 21.5 6.2 0.0

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,483 4,313 6,127 6,216 5,740 5,462 5,457 5,468 5,489 5,531 5,578 5,603 5,340 5,535 5,532 5,550

 Percent Change: YoY 0.0 3.6 -0.1 0.3

NSA, Thous. $

 Median New Home Price 330 323 326 349 350 341 335 355 353 342 339 360 322 332 345 349

 Median Existing Home Price 272 288 309 291 289 304 317 296 292 306 321 300 272 290 302 305

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 FHFA Purchase-Only Index 6.0 5.4 7.1 6.4 5.9 5.4 2.3 2.1 0.8 1.1 1.7 1.7 5.4 6.4 2.1 1.7

Percent

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.9 3.1 2.8 2.9

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.6 3.1 2.7 2.7

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 788 1,106 1,283 940 615 723 725 658 548 656 665 601 2,462 4,117 2,721 2,470

 Purchase 290 353 474 412 309 444 450 391 313 456 467 407 1,326 1,530 1,595 1,643

 Refinance 497 753 809 527 306 279 275 267 235 200 198 193 1,136 2,587 1,126 827

 Refinance Share (Percent) 63 68 63 56 50 39 38 41 43 31 30 32 46 63 41 33

 --------------- 2020 --------------- --------------- 2021 --------------- --------------- 2022 ---------------

November 10, 2020

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from October 30, 2020.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business 

prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group 

bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any 

particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the 

ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.