Housing Forecast: July 2015

14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 2014 2015 2016

Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts 934 984 1,029 1,055 978 1,099 1,170 1,225 1,245 1,315 1,350 1,365 1,003 1,118 1,319

Single-Family (1 Unit) 610 624 654 700 643 705 780 830 850 920 950 965 648 740 921

Percent Change: Year-over-Year 4.9% 14.1% 24.6%

Multifamily (2+ Units) 324 360 375 356 335 394 390 395 395 395 400 400 355 379 398

New Single-Family Home Sales 424 425 439 472 520 544 552 564 575 619 641 651 437 545 621

Percent Change: Year-over-Year 1.9% 24.7% 14.0%

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops) 4,677 4,887 5,057 5,060 4,973 5,277 5,283 5,291 5,313 5,328 5,337 5,341 4,940 5,206 5,330

Percent Change: Year-over-Year -2.9% 5.4% 2.4%

Total Home Sales (New + Existing) 5,101 5,312 5,496 5,532 5,493 5,821 5,835 5,855 5,887 5,946 5,978 5,993 5,377 5,751 5,951

Percent Change: Year-over-Year -2.6% 7.0% 3.5%

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New 274 282 278 301 291 295 290 315 304 305 301 329 283 298 310

Median Total Existing 191 212 216 208 203 222 226 217 212 229 234 226 208 217 226

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 6.8% 5.6% 4.7% 5.0% 5.0% 5.1% 4.8% 4.5% 4.5% 3.2% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.5%

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.2 3.9 4.3

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.65 3.0 3.0 3.5

1-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.18 2.4 2.6 3.0

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations 240 312 336 296 324 467 353 320 256 321 309 285 1,184 1,464 1,171

Purchase 123 190 194 169 136 232 215 192 146 225 230 209 676 775 810

Refinance 116 122 142 127 188 235 138 128 110 95 80 77 508 689 362

Refinance Share (%) 49% 39% 42% 43% 58% 50% 39% 40% 43% 30% 26% 27% 43% 47% 31%

July 10, 2015

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from June 30, 2015.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating

Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend

on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided

in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results.

The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views

of Fannie Mae or its management.

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