Housing Forecast: December 2018

18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 2017 2018 2019 2020

Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts 1,317 1,261 1,225 1,246 1,247 1,261 1,271 1,282 1,287 1,288 1,289 1,288 1,203 1,262 1,265 1,288

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 889 896 877 871 875 895 912 928 934 937 939 940 849 883 903 938

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 8.6% 4.1% 2.2% 3.9%

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 428 365 347 375 372 366 359 354 353 351 350 348 354 379 363 351

New Single-Family Home Sales 656 633 598 581 599 618 628 632 635 637 639 640 613 617 619 638

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 9.3% 0.6% 0.4% 3.0%

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops) 5,507 5,413 5,273 5,240 5,281 5,342 5,395 5,441 5,449 5,454 5,457 5,459 5,510 5,358 5,365 5,455

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 1.1% -2.8% 0.1% 1.7%

Total Home Sales (New + Existing) 6,163 6,046 5,871 5,821 5,880 5,960 6,023 6,073 6,084 6,091 6,096 6,099 6,123 5,975 5,984 6,092

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 1.9% -2.4% 0.1% 1.8%

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New 331 314 324 354 347 329 338 368 359 337 345 375 323 331 345 354

Median Total Existing 244 266 264 260 256 278 275 270 264 285 281 275 247 258 270 276

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (% Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 7.4% 6.8% 6.3% 5.4% 4.4% 4.8% 4.3% 4.1% 3.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.2% 6.9% 5.4% 4.1% 2.2%

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.0 4.6 4.8 4.8

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 3.2 3.8 4.2 4.3

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations 374 447 419 388 321 442 437 404 334 456 450 411 1,826 1,627 1,605 1,651

 Purchase 227 335 319 286 218 338 334 302 234 355 348 310 1,177 1,166 1,192 1,246

 Refinance 147 111 100 103 104 103 103 103 100 100 102 101 650 461 413 404

Refinance Share (%) 39% 25% 24% 27% 32% 23% 24% 25% 30% 22% 23% 25% 36% 28% 26% 25%

December 10, 2018

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from November 30, 2018.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating 

Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend 

on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided 

in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. 

The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views 

of Fannie Mae or its management.

 --------------- 2018 --------------- --------------- 2019 --------------- --------------- 2020 ---------------