Housing Forecast: May 2023

22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.4 2022 2023 2024

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,720 1,647 1,450 1,398 1,395 1,351 1,242 1,186 1,192 1,228 1,268 1,296 1,553 1,294 1,246

 Percent Change: YoY -3.0 -16.7 -3.7

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 1,187 1,086 905 849 841 836 795 789 812 841 864 890 1,005 815 852

 Percent Change: YoY -10.8 -18.9 4.5

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 533 561 545 549 555 515 447 397 379 387 404 406 547 478 394

 Percent Change: YoY 15.5 -12.6 -17.7

 Total Home Sales 6,759 5,975 5,356 4,794 4,981 4,918 4,767 4,747 4,834 4,939 5,057 5,210 5,667 4,857 5,010

 Percent Change: YoY -17.8 -14.3 3.2

 New Single-Family 776 609 580 598 651 660 631 618 621 628 630 636 641 640 629

 Percent Change: YoY -16.9 -0.2 -1.8

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,983 5,367 4,777 4,197 4,330 4,258 4,136 4,129 4,213 4,312 4,427 4,574 5,026 4,217 4,381

 Percent Change: YoY -17.9 -16.1 3.9

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 Fannie Mae HPI 19.6 18.5 12.9 8.7 4.7 -0.1 -0.8 -1.2 -2.5 -2.6 -2.2 -2.2 8.7 -1.2 -2.2

Percent: Quarterly Avg, Annual Avg

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.8 5.2 5.6 6.7 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3 6.3 5.6

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 781 692 542 402 318 439 451 442 383 554 579 511 2,417 1,650 2,026

 Purchase 392 504 434 333 268 374 375 342 264 416 417 370 1,664 1,359 1,468

 Refinance 388 188 108 69 51 65 76 100 119 137 162 141 753 291 558

 Refinance Share (Percent) 50 27 20 17 16 15 17 23 31 25 28 28 31 18 28

May 10, 2023

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from April 28, 2023; all other forecasts are based on the date above.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: The Fannie Mae HPI forecast is updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Freddie Mac. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or 

expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, including that the ongoing debt ceiling impasse will be resolved in a manner that avoids default, and are subject to change without notice. How this information 

affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information 

provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, 

opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management. 

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