Housing Forecast: September 2019

18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 2018 2019 2020

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,321 1,260 1,233 1,185 1,213 1,258 1,240 1,253 1,246 1,240 1,229 1,220 1,250 1,241 1,234

 Percent Change: YoY 3.9 -0.7 -0.6

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 893 894 876 828 864 847 874 889 894 890 884 880 876 868 887

 Percent Change: YoY 3.2 -0.8 2.1

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 428 365 357 357 349 411 366 364 352 350 345 340 374 373 347

 Percent Change: YoY 5.6 -0.4 -7.0

 Total Home Sales 6,149 6,039 5,913 5,722 5,875 5,949 6,043 6,092 6,095 6,072 6,017 5,969 5,957 5,990 6,038

 Percent Change: YoY -2.7 0.5 0.8

 New Single-Family 642 632 607 579 669 662 663 670 664 654 649 644 617 666 653

 Percent Change: YoY 0.7 7.9 -2.0

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,507 5,407 5,307 5,143 5,207 5,287 5,380 5,422 5,431 5,418 5,368 5,325 5,340 5,324 5,386

 Percent Change: YoY -3.1 -0.3 1.2

NSA, Thous. $

 Median New Home Price 331 314 326 322 312 319 342 338 328 334 356 351 326 328 342

 Median Existing Home Price 244 266 264 256 253 277 277 269 266 290 289 278 259 269 281

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 FHFA Purchase-Only Index 7.3 6.7 6.4 6.0 5.4 5.0 4.9 5.4 5.3 4.9 4.3 3.7 6.0 5.4 3.7

Percent

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.4 4.0 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 4.5 3.9 3.4

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.8 3.5 3.0

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 410 508 465 383 349 528 600 495 360 508 506 462 1,766 1,971 1,837

 Purchase 252 367 342 273 241 377 354 300 238 363 361 309 1,234 1,272 1,270

 Refinance 157 141 123 111 108 150 247 195 122 145 145 154 532 699 566

 Refinance Share (Percent) 38 28 26 29 31 29 41 39 34 29 29 33 30 35 31

 --------------- 2018 --------------- --------------- 2019 --------------- --------------- 2020 ---------------

September 10, 2019

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from August 30, 2019.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

 2017 and 2018 mortgage originations were revised as part of an annual benchmark to the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA)

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or 

expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, 

analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. 

Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the 

views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.