Homebuyers, Owners, & Renters
      
      Homebuyers, Owners, and Renters

          
                        Business Partners
                  Single-Family Business

Helping lenders serve homebuyers and homeowners with affordable mortgages
    
          Multifamily Business

Financing for quality, affordable rental housing in every market, every day
    
          Capital Markets

Reducing risk and enhancing housing finance liquidity
          About Us
                toggle
                Who We Are
                                              toggle
                        Awards and Recognition
                                                      Diversity and Inclusion
                                                              toggle
                                Employee Resource Groups
                                                                      Progress With Purpose
                                                      Employee Code of Conduct
                                                      Community Engagement
                                                      History
                                      What We Do
                                              toggle
                        Duty to Serve
                                                              toggle
                                Manufactured Housing
                                                                      Affordable Housing Preservation
                                                                      Rural Housing
                                                                      Research Initiatives
                                                                      Colonias Investment Areas
                                                      Homeownership
                                                              toggle
                                Access to Mortgage Credit
                                                                      Restrictive Covenants
                                                      Innovation
                                                      Mortgage Finance in America
                                                      Financial Performance
                                                      Disaster Resiliency and Relief
                                                      Pilot Transparency
                                      Leadership Team
                                      Corporate Governance
                                              toggle
                        Corporate Governance Guidelines
                                                      Fannie Mae Charter
                                                      Board of Directors
                                                      Committees
                                                      Committee Charters
                                                      Code of Conduct
                                                      Bylaws
                                                      Contacting the Board of Directors
                                                      Housing Reports
                                      Investor Relations
                                              toggle
                        Quarterly and Annual Results
                                                      Annual Reports
                                                      SEC Filings
                                                              toggle
                                All SEC Filings
                                                                      Annual Filings
                                                                      Quarterly Filings
                                                                      Current Reports
                                                                      Section 16 Filings
                                                                      Proxy Filings
                                                      Additional Disclosures
                                                              toggle
                                Monthly Summary
                                                                      Capital Disclosures
                                                      Stock Information
                                                      Current Stock Information
                                                      Contact Information
                                      ESG
                                              toggle
                        Learn about our business
                                                      Environmental
                                                      Social
                                                              toggle
                                Equitable Housing Finance Plan
                                                      Governance
                                                      Sustainable Bonds
                                                              toggle
                                Green Bonds
                                                                      Social Bonds
                                                      Reports & Disclosures
                                                              toggle
                                2021 ESG Report
                                      Research & Insights
                                              toggle
                        Forecast
                                                              toggle
                                Monthly Archive
                                                                      Weekly Archive
                                                      Surveys & Indices
                                                              toggle
                                National Housing Survey
                                                                      Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey
                                                                      Fannie Mae Home Price Index
                                                                      Refinance Application-Level Index
                                                                      Special Topics
                                                      Publications
                                                              toggle
                                Fannie Mae Working Papers
                                                                      Housing Insights
                                                                      Partner Research
                                                                      Publications Archive
                                                      Perspectives
                                                              toggle
                                Archive - 2020
                                                                      Archive - 2021
                                                                      Archive - 2022
                                                                      Archive - 2023
                                      Newsroom
                                              toggle
                        News
                                                      Media Resources
          
                        Careers
                toggle
                Our Teams
                                              toggle
                        Corporate Teams
                                                      Data & Analytics
                                                      Digital & Technology
                                                      Mortgage & Customer Solutions
                                                      Risk Management
                                      Life at Fannie Mae
                                      Diversity & Inclusion
                                      Benefits & Professional Development
                                      Campus
          
                        Contact Us
                      
            Google Translate Disclaimer
            The Google Translate feature is a third-party service that is available for informational purposes only. Fannie Mae is unable to guarantee the accuracy of any translation resulting from the tool and is not responsible for any event or damage that occurs as a result of using the translations generated by the Google Translate feature.
            OK
  Translate
        Translation Disclaimer
          Chinese, Traditional
            English
            Filipino
            Korean
            Spanish
            Vietnamese
 FM Site Nav
  

        

Homepage
                    
      Fannie Mae logo
    Toggle navigation
      Rent
                
                All Renter Resources
                                      The Rental Process
                                      Make Your Rent Count
                                      Credit Basics
                      
            Buy
                
                All Homebuyer Resources
                                      7 Steps to Homeownership
                                      HomeView Homeownership Education Course
                      
            Own
                
                All Homeowner Resources
                                      Make the Most of Your Home
                                      Refinancing Your Mortgage
                                      When It’s Time to Sell
                      
            Get Relief
                  Manage Financial Uncertainty

All Resources to Manage Financial Uncertainty

Help for Homeowners

Help for Renters

Protect Yourself from Fraud
    
          Recover from a Disaster

All Resources for Recovering from a Disaster

Recovery Assistance for Homeowners

Recovery Assistance for Renters

Protect Yourself from Fraud
                      
            Calculators & Tools
                
                All Calculators & Tools
                                      Tools for Renters
                                      Tools for Homebuyers
                                      Tools for Homeowners
                                      HomeView® Homeownership Education Course
                                      Glossary
                                      Mobile AppToggle search
 Skip to main content
          
    
    Home
                        Newsroom
                        Fannie Mae News
                        Economic Growth Expected to Slow as the Fed Wrangles Inflation
    Press Release
Economic Growth Expected to Slow as the Fed Wrangles Inflation
February 17, 2022
Rising Mortgage Rates and Even Higher Home Prices Projected to Limit Affordability
WASHINGTON, DC –With inflation at its highest level in four decades, the Federal Reserve is expected to enact a more aggressive course of monetary policy tightening than previously forecast, with a 50-basis-point increase to the federal funds rate in March now predicted to be the first in a series of interest rate hikes through 2023, according to the February 2022 commentary from the Fannie Mae (FNMA/OTCQB) Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group.The combination of a less accommodative interest rate environment and an increasingly worker-scarce labor market led the ESR Group to downgrade its expectations for 2022 real GDP growth from 3.1 percent to 2.8 percent; however, its expectations for 2023 headline growth remained unchanged at 2.2 percent, a pace that approaches the long-run trend. Risks to the forecast include uncertainty over the future course of inflation, potential geopolitical developments in Eastern Europe, and currently unforeseen COVID-related disruptions to consumer behavior and the labor market.

In addition to a slowdown in economic activity, the ESR Group expects housing activity to moderate from 2021’s highs. Single-family home sales are expected to decline 2.4 percent in 2022 – a slightly steeper drop than the previously anticipated 1.2 percent dip – due to increasing affordability constraints associated with rising mortgage rates. As measured by the FHFA Purchase-Only Index, the ESR Group currently projects home price growth of 7.6 percent in 2022 and 3.3 percent in 2023, down from last year’s record-setting 17.3 percent. With the 30-year fixed mortgage rate now projected to close the year at 3.7 percent, refinance activity, as a share of total single-family mortgage originations, is expected to decline to 36 percent in 2022 from 58 percent in 2021 and could move even lower if rates move further upward.

“Challenges to macroeconomic forecasting have grown not only because of inflation’s largely unexpected persistence but also because of its outsized and broad-based impact on the U.S. economy and global economic growth,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist.

“Headline inflation will likely decline from year-ago levels as price pressures ease, but upward price pressures are not expected to be as fleeting as initially thought – and it’s likely that the period of time required for inflation to be reversed has been extended significantly,” said Duncan. “Compared to a few months ago, financial markets now expect a substantially more aggressive monetary posture from the nation’s central bank, which is likely to result in heightened volatility as the Fed retains the optionality necessary to engineer a non-inflationary soft landing. We currently forecast the Consumer Price Index closing 2022 and 2023 at 4.4 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively, down from a peak of 7.6 percent in the current quarter. If correct, inflation will still be above the Fed’s 2-percent target at the end of next year, despite our expectation of more aggressive Fed action.”

Duncan continued: “For homebuyers, we believe that borrowing costs will likely rise with the increase in mortgage rates, further eroding affordability. At the same time, we expect demographic factors and a shortage of housing supply to be supportive of housing activity. What remains unknown is how higher mortgage rates and tighter monetary policy – through expected interest rate hikes and changes to the makeup of the Fed’s portfolio – will impact home prices.”

Visit the Economic & Strategic Research site at fanniemae.com to read the full February 2022 Economic Outlook, including the Economic Developments Commentary, Economic Forecast, Housing Forecast, and Multifamily Market Commentary. To receive e-mail updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group, please click here.

*Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views, including assumptions about the duration and magnitude of shutdowns and social distancing, could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.*
**About Fannie Mae**
Fannie Mae advances equitable and sustainable access to homeownership and quality, affordable rental housing for millions of people across America. We enable the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and drive responsible innovation to make homebuying and renting easier, fairer, and more accessible. To learn more, visit:fanniemae.com | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn | Instagram | YouTube | Blog

**Media Contact**Matthew Classick
202-752-3662

**Fannie Mae Newsroom**https://www.fanniemae.com/news

**Photo of Fannie Mae**https://www.fanniemae.com/resources/img/about-fm/fm-building.tif

**Fannie Mae Resource Center**
1-800-2FANNIE
TOPICS
  
Fannie Mae Corporate
          Research and Insights
  
  
      Twitter
              Facebook
              Linkedin
              Email
Newsroom
                                                              News
                                    Media Resources

Our Company
    About Us
      Contact Us
      Careers
      Investor Relations
      Newsroom
      Research & Insights
      ESG
  Business Partners
    Single-Family Business
      Multifamily Business
      Capital Markets
	      Suppliers
      Developer Portal
  Homebuyers, Owners, & Renters
    Educational Resources
      Credit Basics
      HomeView Homeownership Education Course
      HomePath - Search for Homes
      Make Your Rent CountCalculators & Tools
      All Calculators and Tools      Glossary of Key Terms
      Mortgage Calculator
      Down Payment Assistance Search Tool
      Mobile AppLet Us Help You
      Contact a Housing Counselor
      Manage Financial Uncertainty
      Recover from a Disaster
    
    
  

      
Social media
  

        
            Follow us
          Follow us
          Facebook
          Twitter
          LinkedIn
          Instagram
    Footer
  

        
            Legal
          Privacy
          Digital Accessibility
                Cookie Preferences
            © 2024 Fannie Mae