May 10, 2021

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from April 30, 2021.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: FHFA Purchase-Only Index and median home price forecasts are updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's 

business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although 

the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, 

current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, 

forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.

Housing Forecast: May 2021

20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 2020 2021 2022

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,484 1,079 1,432 1,584 1,613 1,708 1,658 1,606 1,557 1,547 1,543 1,543 1,380 1,646 1,547

 Percent Change: YoY 6.9 19.3 -6.0

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 968 766 1,037 1,227 1,155 1,298 1,271 1,220 1,170 1,155 1,148 1,145 991 1,236 1,155

 Percent Change: YoY 11.6 24.8 -6.6

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 517 313 395 357 458 410 387 386 387 392 395 398 389 410 393

 Percent Change: YoY -3.3 5.5 -4.2

 Total Home Sales 6,187 5,086 7,077 7,580 7,262 6,858 6,748 6,604 6,549 6,525 6,512 6,511 6,462 6,868 6,524

 Percent Change: YoY 7.3 6.3 -5.0

 New Single-Family 701 703 974 924 959 978 952 935 910 895 885 883 822 956 893

 Percent Change: YoY 20.4 16.3 -6.6

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,487 4,383 6,103 6,657 6,303 5,880 5,796 5,669 5,639 5,630 5,627 5,628 5,640 5,912 5,631

 Percent Change: YoY 5.6 4.8 -4.8

NSA, Thous. $

 Median New Home Price 330 323 333 354 346 365 372 385 367 381 383 395 335 367 382

 Median Existing Home Price 272 288 309 311 314 326 346 338 333 340 356 347 295 331 344

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 FHFA Purchase-Only Index 6.2 5.7 8.0 10.9 12.3 13.0 11.0 8.0 5.3 4.2 3.1 2.9 10.9 8.0 2.9

Percent

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.1 3.0 3.4

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.8 2.9

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 752 1,096 1,346 1,342 1,266 1,183 874 757 661 817 820 738 4,536 4,081 3,036

 Purchase 290 353 513 489 368 500 513 461 364 528 533 462 1,645 1,842 1,887

 Refinance 462 742 833 853 899 683 361 296 297 289 287 276 2,891 2,239 1,150

 Refinance Share (Percent) 61 68 62 64 71 58 41 39 45 35 35 37 64 55 38

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