Economic Forecast: August 2015

14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 2014 2015 2016

National Income and Product Accounts (Chained 2009$)

Percent Change: Quarterly SAAR, Annual Q4/Q4

Gross Domestic Product -0.9 4.6 4.3 2.1 0.6 2.3 2.5 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.1 2.4

Personal Consumption Expenditures 1.3 3.8 3.5 4.3 1.8 2.9 2.9 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 3.2 2.7 2.7

Residential Fixed Investment -2.8 10.4 3.4 10.0 10.1 6.6 1.7 3.4 9.1 10.9 10.8 12.3 5.1 5.4 10.8

Business Fixed Investment 8.3 4.4 9.0 0.7 1.6 -0.6 1.8 3.7 4.1 3.7 3.7 3.6 5.5 1.6 3.8

Government Consumption & Investment 0.0 1.2 1.8 -1.4 -0.1 0.8 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.7 0.8

Billions of Chained 2009$

Net Exports -434 -443 -429 -464 -541 -536 -516 -498 -501 -514 -531 -553 -443 -523 -525

Change in Business Inventories 37 77 80 78 113 110 90 77 65 64 64 64 68 97 64

Price Indices

Percent Change: Quarterly SAAR, Annual Q4/Q4

GDP Price Index 1.5 2.2 1.6 0.1 0.1 2.0 2.7 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.3 1.5 1.9

Consumer Price Index 2.1 2.4 1.2 -0.9 -3.1 3.0 3.0 1.2 2.0 2.3 2.1 2.1 1.2 1.0 2.1

Consumer Price Index (Quarterly YOY % Change, Annual YOY % Change) 1.4 2.1 1.8 1.2 -0.1 0.0 0.5 1.0 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.1 1.6 0.4 2.1

Consumer Price Index excl. Food & Energy 1.8 2.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.5 1.9 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.9

Consumer Price Index excl. Food & Energy (Quarterly YOY % Change, Annual YOY % Change) 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.8

Employment

Unemployment Rate (Percent) 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 6.2 5.3 5.0

Employment, Total Nonfarm Establishment Survey (Percent Change: Quarterly SAAR, Annual Q4/Q4) 1.6 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.2 2.1 1.9 1.2

Interest Rates (Percent)

Federal Funds Rate 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.6

1-Year Treasury Note Yield 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.1 0.4 1.0

10-Year Treasury Bond Yield 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.5

August 10, 2015

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from July 31, 2015.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research group

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating

Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend

on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided

in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results.

The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views

of Fannie Mae or its management.

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