Update of FAA-AEE Emissions Programs

Presented to:		REDAC Environment & Energy

		Subcommittee 

By: 		Ralph Iovinelli

		Manager, Emissions Division, AEE-300

		FAA Office of Environment & Energy

Date:		August 6, 2015

Federal Aviation

Administration

Federal Aviation

Administration

1

Primary Emissions Activities

FY15 Emissions Projects

FY16/17 Emissions R&D Expectations

Emissions Roadmap

2

Federal Aviation

Administration

FY15 Emissions Projects

COE02: nvPM Engine Measurements and Standard

COE13: Access2 Microphysical Modeling

COE14:  CO2 Standard

COE18: Modeling AQ Health Impacts

COE19: Airport AQ Impacts Modeling

COE20: Rapid Global AQ Modeling (Adjoint)

NAS-wide Energy Efficiency

COE21:  APMT-Impacts Climate Global Tool Development

COE22:  Evaluation of FAA Climate Impacts Tools

COE24:  Alternative Fuels Emissions Data Analysis

2012 Contrails Observational Dataset Development

2050 Climate Modeling Scenarios

Regional Climate Model Dev.

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Federal Aviation

Administration

Work will finish on International CO2 standard development – move on to domestic implementation

Wrap up nvPM emissions measurements and continue work to develop standard

Finish development of metric and method for quantifying domestic air quality impacts

Expand worldwide air quality modeling to have higher fidelity grids over Europe and Asia while explicitly including uncertainties in underlying emissions inventories

Develop and implement plan to examine climate impacts that are unique to aviation to enable solution development

FY16/17 Emissions R&D Expectations

4

Federal Aviation

Administration

5

EmissionsSource Characterization

Certificationand Regulations

EmissionsTools Development

ClimateImpactsResearch

Guidance

AviationEmissionsModeling

HealthImpactsResearch

EMISSIONS RESEARCH ROADMAP

Emissions Roadmap

Federal Aviation

Administration

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|                                                           | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
|-----------------------------------------------------------|------|------|------|------|------|------|------|------|------|------|
| nvPM Measurement System                                   |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |
| - Lab scale research                                      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |
| - Field research                                          |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |
| - Proof of concept                                        |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |
| - AIR 6241 compliant measurement systems inter-comparison |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |
| - Round robin testing                                     |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |
| HAPs measurements                                         |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |
| Engine characterization                                   |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |
| Alt fuels data analysis and model development             |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |
| Engine-to-engine nvPM variability (TBD)                   |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |
| Altitude measurements (TBD)                               |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |

Emissions Measurements & Characterization

nvPM AIR Issued

nvPM ARP & nvPM “Transition” standard

Representative “US” engine data to CAEP

CAEP/10

Emissions Correction factors

PM predictive model

CAEP/11

HAPs and nvPM taken together in emissions measurement campaigns

Federal Aviation

Administration

Inputs

Models

Emissions Inventory (AEDT)

Background weather and chemistry

Population

2015

2016

2017

2018

2020

GLOBAL:  GEOS-Chem Adjoint

NAS48: CMAQ and GEOS-Chem Nested Adjoint

AIRSHED: CMAQ DDM

2019

Air Quality Health Impacts Capabilities Development

Update tool to account for Improved  knowledge of pollutants, dispersion, chemistry and health 

Evaluate uncertainties due to background emissions

Develop overall model with nested grids for U.S. + Asia + Europe 

Further updates TBD

Develop CMAQ modeling framework

Develop airshed AQ CBA factors

Update tool to account for Improved  knowledge of pollutants, dispersion, chemistry and health 

CAEP Cost Benefit Analysis

NextGen Cost Benefit Analysis

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Federal Aviation

Administration

Support cruise emissions measurement campaigns (e.g., ACCESS II) with analysis support (FY15-FY16)

Incorporate latest science into existing APMT-Impacts CBA tool (ongoing)

Develop regional impacts assessment capability for potential use in CBA 

Need to develop a plan to examine climate impacts that are unique to aviation to enable solution development

Climate Impacts

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Federal Aviation

Administration

8

9

Emissions Tools Development
| Justification                          | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
|----------------------------------------|------|------|------|------|------|------|------|
| AEDT                                   |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |
| Air Quality Models &Health Impacts |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |
| Climate Impact Models                  |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |

High Fidelity Weather

High Fidelity w/Sensor Path, BADA4

AEDT Post 2b Tech Support Development

Aircraft Performance Module

Global Analysis Tool (GEOS Chem-Adjoint)

NAS-Wide Analysis Tool (CMAQ & GEOS Chem-Nested Adjoint)

Air Shed Level Analysis Tools (CMAQ DDM)

Global Level Analysis

Regional Analysis

    Updated Tool

Continued Development

Federal Aviation

Administration

Modeling & Analyses

10

Objective

Modeling & analysis work streams aim to, but not limited to:

Improve the understanding of emissions sources & trends

Inform decisions in the development of policies

Track the progress toward achieving domestic or international goals

Provide international and domestic leadership supported by technical excellence

Milestones 

Modeling & analyses are always needed, primarily driven by cyclic phases:

Annually:

Fuel burn, emissions and noise inventories are generated for modeling, analysis & reporting needs every year

Fidelity and underlying databases of inventories are updated as necessary to support specific modeling efforts

AEDT, PDARS*, fuel efficiency analyses are conducted regularly to meet internal and external goals/orders

Models are continuously updated to ensure maximize confidence in results

Triennially:

Support various CAEP activities coinciding with the CAEP cycles

* Performance Data Analysis and Reporting System by ATAC (www.atac.com/pdars.html)

Federal Aviation

Administration

Regulations and Certification Activities
| Subject                                                             | Now – 2/2016                                                                                              | 2017                             | 2018         | 2019                         | 2020                                         | 2021                         | 2022          |
|---------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------|--------------|------------------------------|----------------------------------------------|------------------------------|---------------|
| CO2 Aircraft Std.                                                   | CAEP/10ICAO CO2 Std.                                                                                      |                                  | EPA CO2 Std. | FAA CO2 Std.                 |                                              |                              |               |
| nvPM Data Collection                                                | ICAO voluntary nvPM data for 25 engines by 2/2017CAEP/10 nvPM Transition Std.  3. FAA data     management | EPA Data Mandate Under CAA §114  |              |                              | CAEP/10 nvPM data set complete (169 engines) |                              |               |
| nvPM Standard                                                       | CAEP/10ICAO nvPM Transition Std.                                                                          |                                  |              | CAEP/11 nvPM Std.            |                                              | EPA nvPM Std.                | FAA nvPM Std. |
| Expanded Delegation /                       Certification Authority | Sec. 312 of 2012 FAA Mod. & Reform Act:1. Emissions Delegation Workshop2. Emissions Recurrent Session | Emissions Recurrent Workshop     |              | Emissions Recurrent Workshop |                                              | Emissions Recurrent Workshop |               |

ICAO Standard = Annex 16 Vol.s II, III  /  EPA Standard = 40 CFR Part 87 /  FAA Standard = 14 CFR Part 34

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Federal Aviation

Administration

12

Emissions Guidance
|                    | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
|--------------------|------|------|------|------|------|
| Emissions Guidance |      |      |      |      |      |

HAPsGuidanceUpdate

AC34 Update

AC34 Update

... Ongoing

CAEP Annex 16 & ETM

CAEP Annex 16 & ETM

Federal Aviation

Administration

Air Quality Handbook Updates for AEDT

nvPM

HAPs Measurements

Support for nvPM & CO2 standards

Support for nvPM std

CAEP/10 CO2 & nvPM Data Collection Standard

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| Stream                           | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
|----------------------------------|------|------|------|------|------|
| Emissions SourceCharacterization |      |      |      |      |      |
| Air Quality Health Impacts       |      |      |      |      |      |
| Climate Impacts                  |      |      |      |      |      |
| Emissions Tools Development      |      |      |      |      |      |
| Modeling & Analysis          |      |      |      |      |      |
| Regulations                      |      |      |      |      |      |
| Emissions Guidance               |      |      |      |      |      |

Work Stream Goes Beyond 2020

Work Stream Starts or Ends

CAEP/11

               CAEP/12

Milestone (report, update completion, etc.)

Research Outcomes ⟹ Tools

Work Began before 2016

Hazardous Air Pollutants Guidance

Advisory Circular 34 Updates & Workshops; Updates to ICAO Annex 16 Volumes, Technical Manuals & AQ Handbook

Annual Fuel Burn /Emissions Inventories and Other AEDT, PDARS and/or Fuel Efficiency Analyses

Triennial Support for CAEP Analyses

Aircraft CO2 Emissions Standard

Engine nvPM Emissions Standard

Alternative Fuels Model Development

nvPM Measurement System

nvPM Data for CAEP/10 & /11 Standards Development and Hazardous Air Pollutants Data

Aviation Environmental Design Tool 

Operational Implementation of Air Quality, Health and Climate Impacts Research Outcomes

NAS48 (CMAQ & GEOS Chem Nested Adjoint)

Global (GEOS Chem Adjoint)

AIRSHED (CMAQ DDM); Development and Updates

LEGEND:

Summary of Emissions Roadmap

Impacts Studies, Aircraft campaigns        

Federal Aviation

Administration

Presentation reminders (verbal cues) for Ralph:

Emissions Research stream: Milestones include ARP compliant system, Data for CAEP 10 and CAEP/11 standards, Emissions correction factors, PM predictive model.

Air Quality Health Impacts stream: Clarifies the tools and how they’re used globally, domestically and locally. The money associated with these stream includes research and tools development, therefore this value is not included in the tools development stream.

Climate Impacts stream: Higher impacts is leading the research, which would give rise to other projects that would report. The money associated with these stream includes research and tools development.

Emissions Tools Development stream: In addition to continuous improvements/development, AEDT is developed every CAEP cycle to meet CAEP analysis needs. Numbers in the stream include AEDT as strictly emissions (would need double to include noise). New version of AEDT is planned to be published at the end of 2018.

Modeling & Analysis stream: These activities improve the understanding of emissions sources & trends, inform decisions in the development of policies, track the progress toward achieving domestic or international goals, and provide international and domestic leadership supported by technical excellence.

Regulations stream: Timelines include ICAO & US work on standards. Publication of new Part 34 based on estimated end of 2018 for implementation of CO2 standard (in coordination with EPA). 

Emissions Guidance stream: Various documents will come out each year, for example end of 2016 AC34-1C will be published and we’ll have a workshop, A16 and ETMS are published during CAEP cycles, AQ Handbook is updated as needed.

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