Economic Forecast: April 2015

14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 2014 2015 2016

National Income and Product Accounts (Chained 2009$)

Percent Change: Quarterly SAAR, Annual Q4/Q4

Gross Domestic Product -2.1 4.6 5.0 2.2 1.3 3.5 3.3 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.8 2.5

Personal Consumption Expenditures 1.2 2.5 3.2 4.4 2.3 3.6 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.9 3.1 2.6

Residential Fixed Investment -5.3 8.8 3.2 3.8 0.7 7.6 10.4 11.4 6.5 7.5 8.0 4.5 2.5 7.4 6.6

Business Fixed Investment 1.6 9.7 8.9 4.7 2.0 2.1 4.3 4.8 4.9 3.8 3.8 4.0 6.2 3.3 4.1

Government Consumption & Investment -0.8 1.7 4.4 -1.9 0.4 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.4

Billions of Chained 2009$

Net Exports -447 -460 -431 -471 -487 -486 -484 -486 -487 -484 -493 -502 -453 -486 -492

Change in Business Inventories 35 85 82 80 69 84 83 81 73 72 70 69 71 79 71

Income (Billions of Nominal $)

Disposable Personal Income 12,773 12,945 13,061 13,164 13,319 13,442 13,575 13,710 13,836 13,964 14,093 14,228 12,986 13,512 14,030

Percent Change: Quarterly SAAR, Annual Q4/Q4 4.8 5.5 3.6 3.2 4.8 3.7 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.9 4.3 4.2 3.8

Price Indices

Percent Change: Quarterly SAAR, Annual Q4/Q4

GDP Price Index 1.3 2.1 1.4 0.1 0.9 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.1 1.2 1.6 2.0

Consumer Price Index 2.1 2.4 1.2 -0.9 -2.9 2.0 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 1.2 1.0 2.3

Consumer Price Index excl. Food & Energy 1.8 2.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.6 2.2

Employment

Unemployment Rate (Percent) 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 6.2 5.4 5.1

Employment, Total Nonfarm Establishment Survey (Percent Change: Quarterly SAAR, Annual Q4/Q4) 1.6 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.1 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2 2.1 2.3 1.3

Interest Rates (Percent)

Federal Funds Rate 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.1 0.3 0.7

1-Year Treasury Note Yield 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 0.1 0.4 1.1

10-Year Treasury Bond Yield 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.0 2.2

April 10, 2015

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from March 31, 2015.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research Group

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating

Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend

on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided

in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results.

The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views

of Fannie Mae or its management.

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