Housing Forecast: October 2023

22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.4 2022 2023 2024

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,718 1,636 1,446 1,405 1,385 1,450 1,365 1,283 1,211 1,221 1,250 1,281 1,553 1,371 1,241

 Percent Change: YoY -3.0 -11.7 -9.5

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 1,182 1,084 901 850 834 930 948 898 864 874 895 915 1,005 902 887

 Percent Change: YoY -10.8 -10.2 -1.7

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 535 551 545 556 552 520 417 385 347 347 354 366 547 468 353

 Percent Change: YoY 15.5 -14.4 -24.5

 Total Home Sales 6,747 5,970 5,359 4,795 4,965 4,941 4,708 4,607 4,590 4,732 4,868 4,993 5,671 4,805 4,796

 Percent Change: YoY -17.7 -15.3 -0.2

 New Single-Family 763 603 583 598 638 691 691 665 631 667 683 691 641 671 668

 Percent Change: YoY -16.9 4.7 -0.5

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,983 5,367 4,777 4,197 4,327 4,250 4,017 3,942 3,958 4,065 4,185 4,302 5,030 4,134 4,127

 Percent Change: YoY -17.8 -17.8 -0.2

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 Fannie Mae HPI 19.2 18.0 12.3 8.0 4.5 2.9 5.3 6.7 6.7 5.2 3.6 2.8 8.0 6.7 2.8

Percent: Quarterly Avg, Annual Avg

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.8 5.2 5.6 6.7 6.4 6.5 7.0 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.7 5.3 6.8 6.9

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 754 668 544 408 343 431 400 386 330 496 560 510 2,374 1,559 1,896

 Purchase 378 486 439 341 283 360 341 324 258 391 418 374 1,644 1,308 1,440

 Refinance 376 182 105 67 59 71 58 62 72 106 141 137 730 250 456

 Refinance Share (Percent) 50 27 19 16 17 16 15 16 22 21 25 27 31 16 24

October 10, 2023

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from September 29, 2023; all other forecasts are based on the date above.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: The Fannie Mae HPI forecast is updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Freddie Mac. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's 

business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although 

the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, 

current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, 

forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management. 

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