Housing Forecast: May 2019

18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 2018 2019 2020

Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts 1,317 1,261 1,234 1,185 1,193 1,205 1,254 1,264 1,268 1,259 1,254 1,246 1,242 1,229 1,257

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 889 896 877 828 849 852 889 910 915 908 904 898 871 875 906

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 2.6% 0.5% 3.6%

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 428 365 357 357 344 353 365 354 353 351 350 348 372 354 351

New Single-Family Home Sales 656 633 605 575 660 665 651 661 663 654 649 644 617 659 653

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 0.7% 6.9% -1.0%

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops) 5,507 5,407 5,307 5,143 5,207 5,385 5,405 5,423 5,428 5,424 5,418 5,404 5,340 5,355 5,419

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year -3.1% 0.3% 1.2%

Total Home Sales (New + Existing) 6,163 6,039 5,912 5,719 5,866 6,050 6,056 6,084 6,091 6,078 6,067 6,049 5,957 6,014 6,071

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year -2.7% 1.0% 0.9%

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New 331 314 326 322 307 328 339 336 320 340 351 345 326 327 339

Median Total Existing 244 266 264 256 253 277 275 267 264 288 284 274 259 268 277

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (% Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 7.4% 6.8% 6.5% 5.7% 3.8% 4.2% 4.1% 4.6% 4.6% 3.9% 3.5% 2.9% 5.7% 4.6% 2.9%

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.5 4.2 4.2

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations 368 476 429 365 329 496 435 394 331 458 451 403 1,637 1,655 1,644

 Purchase 227 349 319 266 218 347 331 288 228 354 346 298 1,161 1,183 1,226

 Refinance 141 126 110 99 111 149 105 106 103 104 105 106 477 471 418

Refinance Share (%) 38% 27% 26% 27% 34% 30% 24% 27% 31% 23% 23% 26% 29% 28% 25%

May 10, 2019

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from April 30, 2019.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating 

Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend 

on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided 

in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. 

The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views 

of Fannie Mae or its management.

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