15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 2014 2015 2016 2017

Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts 978 1,158 1,153 1,125 1,180 1,215 1,251 1,281 1,315 1,337 1,376 1,391 1,003 1,103 1,232 1,355

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 643 706 744 735 770 810 846 881 915 937 956 971 648 707 827 945

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 4.9% 9.1% 16.9% 14.3%

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 335 451 409 390 410 405 405 400 400 400 420 420 355 396 405 410

New Single-Family Home Sales 517 497 487 484 512 548 567 593 607 624 636 649 437 496 555 629

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 1.9% 13.5% 11.9% 13.3%

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops) 4,973 5,297 5,477 5,372 5,376 5,434 5,501 5,466 5,491 5,506 5,543 5,576 4,940 5,280 5,444 5,529

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year -2.9% 6.9% 3.1% 1.6%

Total Home Sales (New + Existing) 5,490 5,794 5,964 5,856 5,889 5,981 6,068 6,059 6,098 6,130 6,180 6,226 5,377 5,776 5,999 6,158

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year -2.6% 7.4% 3.9% 2.6%

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New 293 290 299 316 306 301 311 331 320 313 323 342 283 299 312 325

Median Total Existing 203 228 227 217 213 237 236 228 222 246 245 236 208 219 228 237

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (% Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 5.3% 5.6% 5.7% 4.7% 4.6% 3.9% 4.2% 4.9% 4.8% 4.1% 3.8% 3.7% 5.0% 4.7% 4.9% 3.7%

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2 3.9 4.1 4.2

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.0 2.9 3.3 3.5

1-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 2.4 2.5 2.9 3.2

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations 384 500 427 400 310 379 374 347 287 374 376 353 1,301 1,711 1,410 1,390

 Purchase 156 261 263 236 173 266 269 244 185 277 279 255 783 916 952 997

 Refinance 229 239 164 164 137 113 104 103 101 97 97 98 518 795 458 393

Refinance Share (%) 59% 48% 38% 41% 44% 30% 28% 30% 35% 26% 26% 28% 40% 46% 32% 28%

December 10, 2015

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from November 30, 2015.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research Group

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected 

results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, 

forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the 

information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do 

not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.

Housing Forecast: December 2015

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