Housing Forecast: January 2021

20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 2019 2020 2021 2022

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,484 1,079 1,432 1,536 1,483 1,413 1,437 1,468 1,482 1,496 1,509 1,527 1,290 1,383 1,450 1,504

 Percent Change: YoY 3.2 7.2 4.9 3.7

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 968 766 1,037 1,179 1,148 1,082 1,094 1,118 1,129 1,136 1,141 1,151 888 987 1,110 1,139

 Percent Change: YoY 1.4 11.2 12.5 2.6

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 517 313 395 357 335 331 343 350 353 361 367 376 402 396 340 364

 Percent Change: YoY 7.5 -1.7 -14.1 7.2

 Total Home Sales 6,184 5,016 7,110 7,570 7,130 6,699 6,529 6,518 6,531 6,544 6,554 6,573 6,023 6,470 6,719 6,550

 Percent Change: YoY 1.1 7.4 3.8 -2.5

 New Single-Family 701 703 974 895 865 845 852 868 872 876 881 890 683 818 858 880

 Percent Change: YoY 10.7 19.8 4.8 2.6

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,483 4,313 6,137 6,675 6,265 5,854 5,677 5,650 5,659 5,668 5,673 5,683 5,340 5,652 5,862 5,671

 Percent Change: YoY 0.0 5.8 3.7 -3.3

NSA, Thous. $

 Median New Home Price 330 323 332 360 362 356 359 377 377 366 367 385 322 336 363 374

 Median Existing Home Price 272 288 309 300 299 318 334 314 312 327 341 321 272 293 316 325

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 FHFA Purchase-Only Index 6.1 5.5 7.8 10.3 9.3 10.1 7.2 4.2 3.9 2.7 2.8 2.5 5.4 10.3 4.2 2.5

Percent

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.9 3.1 2.7 2.9

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.6 3.1 2.8 2.8

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 752 1,095 1,324 1,239 1,095 1,059 924 828 727 852 853 781 2,462 4,411 3,906 3,213

 Purchase 290 353 518 443 346 492 491 423 338 493 500 435 1,326 1,605 1,751 1,766

 Refinance 462 742 806 796 750 566 433 405 389 359 353 345 1,136 2,806 2,155 1,447

 Refinance Share (Percent) 61 68 61 64 68 54 47 49 53 42 41 44 46 64 55 45

 --------------- 2020 --------------- --------------- 2021 --------------- --------------- 2022 ---------------

January 11, 2020

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from December 31, 2020.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected 

results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, 

and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information 

underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not 

necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.