Housing Forecast: November 2019

19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 2018 2019 2020 2021

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,213 1,256 1,282 1,299 1,297 1,288 1,285 1,276 1,282 1,291 1,300 1,314 1,250 1,262 1,287 1,297

 Percent Change: YoY 3.9 1.0 1.9 0.8

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 864 847 901 909 914 916 910 905 910 916 922 934 876 880 911 921

 Percent Change: YoY 3.2 0.5 3.5 1.0

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 349 409 381 390 383 372 375 371 372 375 378 380 374 382 375 376

 Percent Change: YoY 5.6 2.2 -1.8 0.3

 Total Home Sales 5,875 5,948 6,124 6,122 6,115 6,102 6,071 6,055 6,066 6,088 6,110 6,122 5,957 6,017 6,086 6,096

 Percent Change: YoY -2.7 1.0 1.1 0.2

 New Single-Family 669 661 691 687 685 680 674 670 674 678 685 692 617 677 677 682

 Percent Change: YoY 0.7 9.7 0.1 0.7

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,207 5,287 5,433 5,435 5,430 5,422 5,397 5,385 5,392 5,410 5,425 5,430 5,340 5,340 5,409 5,414

 Percent Change: YoY -3.1 0.0 1.3 0.1

NSA, Thous. $

 Median New Home Price 312 321 311 338 328 337 325 351 338 345 331 357 326 320 335 343

 Median Existing Home Price 253 277 277 268 265 291 290 279 274 297 296 283 259 269 281 288

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 FHFA Purchase-Only Index 5.4 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.3 4.6 4.1 3.3 2.5 2.3 2.0 6.0 5.2 4.1 2.0

Percent

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 4.5 3.9 3.6 3.5

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.8 3.6 3.2 3.1

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 335 530 616 578 371 517 508 473 370 509 496 455 1,766 2,059 1,869 1,830

 Purchase 227 376 369 315 242 372 363 319 250 380 372 327 1,234 1,287 1,296 1,329

 Refinance 108 154 247 264 129 145 145 154 120 129 125 128 532 772 573 501

 Refinance Share (Percent) 32 29 40 46 35 28 29 33 32 25 25 28 30 37 31 27

 --------------- 2019 --------------- --------------- 2020 --------------- --------------- 2021 ---------------

November 12, 2019

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from October 31, 2019.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected 

results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, 

forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the 

information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and 

do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.