Economic Forecast: January 2020

19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 2018 2019 2020 2021

Percent Change: Quarterly SAAR, Annual Q4/Q4

 Gross Domestic Product 3.1 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.0

 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) 1.1 4.6 3.2 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.8 2.4 2.1

 Residential Fixed Investment -1.0 -3.0 4.6 4.0 5.9 3.9 2.6 2.4 3.0 3.6 3.7 3.5 -4.4 1.1 3.7 3.4

 Business Fixed Investment 4.4 -1.0 -2.3 0.0 2.0 4.0 2.9 2.7 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.3 5.9 0.3 2.9 2.1

 Government Consumption & Investment 2.9 4.8 1.7 1.7 2.0 3.8 0.9 0.6 1.8 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.5 2.8 1.8 1.1

Billions of Chained 2012$

 Net Exports -944 -981 -990 -931 -945 -997 -1016 -1032 -1050 -1054 -1067 -1075 -920 -961 -997 -1062

 Change in Business Inventories 116 69 69 29 29 20 31 42 45 48 56 57 48 71 31 52

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 Consumer Price Index 1.6 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.8

 Core Consumer Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.1

 PCE Chain Price Index 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.7 1.8

 Core PCE Chain Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.9 1.9

Change: Quarterly Mo. Avg., Thous., Annual Mil.

 Employment, Total Nonfarm 206 146 172 191 183 244 67 99 130 140 145 145 2.7 2.1 1.8 1.7

 Percent Change: Q4/Q4 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.1

Percent

 Unemployment Rate 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.8 4.1

 Federal Funds Rate 2.4 2.4 2.2 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.2 1.6 1.6

1-Year Treasury Note Yield 2.5 2.3 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.3 2.1 1.6 1.6

10-Year Treasury Note Yield 2.7 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.9 2.1 2.0 2.0

 --------------- 2019 --------------- --------------- 2020 --------------- --------------- 2021 ---------------

January 10, 2020

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from December 31, 2019.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Note: Nonfarm employment numbers include temporary hiring for the 2020 decennial Census.

Sources: Actuals: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected 

results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, 

forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the 

information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and 

do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.