15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 2015 2016 2017

National Income and Product Accounts (Chained 2009$)

Percent Change: Quarterly SAAR, Annual Q4/Q4

 Gross Domestic Product 2.0 2.6 2.0 0.9 0.8 1.1 2.9 2.3 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.8

 Personal Consumption Expenditures 2.4 2.9 2.7 2.3 1.6 4.4 3.0 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.6 2.8 2.0

 Residential Fixed Investment 13.3 14.9 12.6 11.5 7.8 -7.7 -1.0 4.4 4.1 4.7 4.1 3.7 13.1 0.7 4.1

 Business Fixed Investment 1.3 1.6 3.9 -3.3 -3.4 -0.9 1.7 2.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.8 -0.1 1.6

 Government Consumption & Investment 2.6 3.2 1.9 1.0 1.6 -1.5 0.8 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.7 2.2 0.4 0.7

Billions of Chained 2009$

 Net Exports -521 -525 -547 -567 -566 -562 -563 -580 -585 -594 -605 -615 -540 -568 -600

 Change in Business Inventories 114 94 71 57 41 -12 11 31 42 49 52 53 84 17 49

Price Indices

Percent Change: Quarterly SAAR, Annual Q4/Q4

GDP Price Index -0.1 2.3 1.3 0.8 0.5 2.3 1.3 1.4 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.1 1.4 2.1

Consumer Price Index -2.9 2.4 1.4 0.8 -0.3 2.5 1.5 3.8 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 0.4 1.9 2.3

Consumer Price Index (Quarterly and Annual YOY % Change) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.9 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.3 0.1 1.3 2.5

Consumer Price Index excl. Food & Energy 1.7 2.3 1.8 2.2 2.7 2.1 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.1

Consumer Price Index excl. Food & Energy (Quarterly and Annual YOY % Change) 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 1.8 2.2 2.1

Employment

Unemployment Rate (Percent) 5.5 5.4 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 5.3 4.9 4.6

Employment, Total Nonfarm (% Change: Quarterly SAAR, Annual Q4/Q4) 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 0.9 2.0 1.5 1.2

Interest Rates (Percent)

Federal Funds Rate 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.5

1-Year Treasury Note Yield 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.6 0.9

10-Year Treasury Bond Yield 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.1 1.7 1.7

September 9, 2016

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from August 31, 2016.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research Group

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are 

based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on 

information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could 

produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae 

or its management.

 Economic Forecast: September 2016

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