Richard Heuwinkel

Matt Fronzak, Mark Huberdeau

Operational Weather Needs Analysis (OWNA) Briefing to REDAC NAS Operations Subcommittee

CAASD

March 12, 2014

© 2014 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.

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What is OWNA?

Operational Weather Needs Analysis (OWNA)

Formalized, operationally-based analysis process

Repeatable for different scenarios and air traffic management (ATM) capabilities and processes

Output is traceable

Goal – identify weather information needs based on operational decision-making by members of the ATM community

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Why OWNA?

FAA weather performance requirements IOU to NWS

“...you don’t know what you don’t know...”

Responsibility – FAAAviation Weather Division(ANG-C6)

NextGen Web Services

Direct External Users

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NextGen Mid-term CONOPS Services

NASStrategic TFM

Flight Planning

Airport Operations

Arrival & Departure Operations

Cruise Operations

Oceanic Operations

Objective  To develop validated operational performance requirements that address user needs and achieve the successful  implementation of mid-term service capabilities.

Decomposition of capabilities through CONOPS functional analysis and NSIP operational analysis to derive weather functions and interfaces with ATM operations.

Assess user needs from an ”as-is” and “to-be” operational context to determine weather information needs in the “to-be” state.

Conduct operational validation of user needs, operational requirements, and weather information needs through use of scenarios with subject matter experts.

Convert operational requirements to performance requirements.

Validate performance requirements through appropriate methods, such as modeling, simulation, or human-in-the-loop exercises.

Analysis

Validation & Approval

Allocate validated requirements to FAA & NWS.

CATM

ISO

TBFM

IMRO

IALVO

Others

Approve requirements.

NSIP 5.0 Alpha & Bravo Portfolios

Weather Requirements Process

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4

Why OWNA?

FAA weather performance requirements IOU to NWS

“...you don’t know what you don’t know...”

Process Owner – FAAAviation Weather Division(ANG-C6)

Progress to date

FAA ANG-C6

Systems engineering-centric analysis

Based on mid-term NextGenCONOPS

TRWG

TFM-centric analysis

CDM WET input

NextGen Web Services

Direct External Users

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5

NextGen Mid-term CONOPS Services

NASStrategic TFM

Flight Planning

Airport Operations

Arrival & Departure Operations

Cruise Operations

Oceanic Operations

Objective  To develop validated operational performance requirements that address user needs and achieve the successful  implementation of mid-term service capabilities.

Decomposition of capabilities through CONOPS functional analysis and NSIP operational analysis to derive weather functions and interfaces with ATM operations.

Assess user needs from an ”as-is” and “to-be” operational context to determine weather information needs in the “to-be” state.

Conduct operational validation of user needs, operational requirements, and weather information needs through use of scenarios with subject matter experts.

Convert operational requirements to performance requirements.

Validate performance requirements through appropriate methods, such as modeling, simulation, or human-in-the-loop exercises.

Analysis

Validation & Approval

Allocate validated requirements to FAA & NWS.

CATM

ISO

TBFM

IMRO

IALVO

Others

Approve requirements.

NSIP 5.0 Alpha & Bravo Portfolios

Progress to Date – ANG-C6

ANG-C6

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NextGen Mid-term CONOPS Services

NASStrategic TFM

Flight Planning

Airport Operations

Arrival & Departure Operations

Cruise Operations

Oceanic Operations

Objective  To develop validated operational performance requirements that address user needs and achieve the successful  implementation of mid-term service capabilities.

Decomposition of capabilities through CONOPS functional analysis and NSIP operational analysis to derive weather functions and interfaces with ATM operations.

Assess user needs from an ”as-is” and “to-be” operational context to determine weather information needs in the “to-be” state.

Conduct operational validation of user needs, operational requirements, and weather information needs through use of scenarios with subject matter experts.

Convert operational requirements to performance requirements.

Validate performance requirements through appropriate methods, such as modeling, simulation, or human-in-the-loop exercises.

Analysis

Validation & Approval

Allocate validated requirements to FAA & NWS.

CATM

ISO

TBFM

IMRO

IALVO

Others

Approve requirements.

NSIP 5.0 Alpha & Bravo Portfolios

Progress to Date – ANG-C6 and TRWG

ANG-C6

TRWG

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7

Why OWNA?

FAA weather performance requirements IOU to NWS

“...you don’t know what you don’t know...”

Process Owner – FAAAviation Weather Division(ANG-C6)

Progress to date

FAA ANG-C6

Systems engineering-centric analysis

Based on mid-term NextGenCONOPS

TRWG

TFM-centric analysis

CDM WET input

OWNA Scope

NextGen Web Services

Direct External Users

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8

NextGen Mid-term CONOPS Services

NASStrategic TFM

Flight Planning

Airport Operations

Arrival & Departure Operations

Cruise Operations

Oceanic Operations

Objective  To develop validated operational performance requirements that address user needs and achieve the successful  implementation of mid-term service capabilities.

Decomposition of capabilities through CONOPS functional analysis and NSIP operational analysis to derive weather functions and interfaces with ATM operations.

Assess user needs from an ”as-is” and “to-be” operational context to determine weather information needs in the “to-be” state.

Conduct operational validation of user needs, operational requirements, and weather information needs through use of scenarios with subject matter experts.

Convert operational requirements to performance requirements.

Validate performance requirements through appropriate methods, such as modeling, simulation, or human-in-the-loop exercises.

Analysis

Validation & Approval

Allocate validated requirements to FAA & NWS.

CATM

ISO

TBFM

IMRO

IALVO

Others

Approve requirements.

NSIP 5.0 Alpha & Bravo Portfolios

OWNA Scope	

ANG-C6

TRWG

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9

How Does OWNA Work?

Discussions with a group of ATM experts, focused on domain-specific capabilities and processes that involve weather-impacted operational decision-making, are used to identify both “as-is” and “to-be” weather information attributes, which are recorded, interpreted, compared and reported out

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10

ATM Experts

Discussions with a group of ATM experts, focused on domain-specific capabilities and processes that involve weather-impacted operational decision-making, are used to identify both “as-is” and “to-be” weather information attributes, which are recorded, interpreted, compared and reported out 

Broad definition of ATM

CDM-centric, includes both providers and operators

Consistent with ICAO definition regarding collaboration

Persons whose decisions may affect the trajectory of a flight

FAA traffic managers (TFM) and operator ATC coordinators (AOC) in the planning domain

FAA air traffic controllers (ATC) and operator aircraft dispatchers (DSP) and pilots (PIC) in the execution domain

SMEs used in the OWNA sessions were current MITRE employees 

Total of 15 individuals with approximately 300 years of practical ATM decision-making experience

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11

Domains

Discussions with a group of ATM experts, focused on domain-specific capabilities and processes that involve weather-impacted operational decision-making, are used to identify both “as-is” and “to-be” weather information attributes, which are recorded, interpreted, compared and reported out 

Two domains

Planning

Execution (Flight Operation)

Each domain is divided into five chronologically-ordered phases

The two domains are strongly linked when an expected demand/capacity imbalance, usually constraint-driven,takes place

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Next Day+ before the Weather Event

4 to 2 hours before the Weather Event

1 hour before onset through cessation of the Weather Event

8+ to 4 hours before the   Weather    Event

2 to 1 hour before the Weather Event

Cruise

(Domestic/ Oceanic)

Surface

(Pushback/Taxi)

Arrival

(Descent/Approach/ Landing/Taxi)

Departure

(Takeoff/Climb)

           Flow Contingency Management                             Traffic  Management                        Separation Management

FlightPlanning

ATM Timeline

Execution

Domain

(Linked to the Flight Event)

Pilot (PIC)   Dispatcher (DSP)

Controller (ATC)

Traffic Manager (TFM)

Planning

Domain

(Linked to the Weather Event)

ATC Coordinator (AOC)

Planning and Execution Domains – Linked by Weather and Flight Operations

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13

Capabilities and Processes

Discussions with a group of ATM experts, focused on domain-specific capabilities and processes that involve weather-impacted operational decision-making, are used to identify both “as-is” and “to-be” weather information attributes, which are recorded, interpreted, compared and reported out 

Any procedure or decision support system that is intended to assist the ATM decision maker in resolving a weather-related demand/capacity imbalance

For purposes of this task, the target capabilities and processes came from the NSIP V5.0

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NextGen Mid-term CONOPS Services

NASStrategic TFM

Flight Planning

Airport Operations

Arrival & Departure Operations

Cruise Operations

Oceanic Operations

Objective  To develop validated operational performance requirements that address user needs and achieve the successful  implementation of mid-term service capabilities.

Decomposition of capabilities through CONOPS functional analysis and NSIP operational analysis to derive weather functions and interfaces with ATM operations.

Assess user needs from an ”as-is” and “to-be” operational context to determine weather information needs in the “to-be” state.

Conduct operational validation of user needs, operational requirements, and weather information needs through use of scenarios with subject matter experts.

Convert operational requirements to performance requirements.

Validate performance requirements through appropriate methods, such as modeling, simulation, or human-in-the-loop exercises.

Analysis

Validation & Approval

Allocate validated requirements to FAA & NWS.

CATM

ISO

TBFM

IMRO

IALVO

Others

Approve requirements.

NSIP 5.0 Alpha & Bravo Portfolios

Source of Capabilities and Processes

ANG-C6

TRWG

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15

What are the NSIP Portfolios? How many Increments (including stand-alone OIs) are in each?

Collaborative Air Traffic Management (CATM) [6A, 8B]

Improved Surface Operations [7A, 6B]

Time-Based Flow Management (TBFM) [6A, 9B]

Improved Multiple Runway Operations (IMRO) [8A, 1B]

Improved Approaches and Low-Visibility Operations[6A, 5B]

Performance-Based Navigation (PBN) [8A, 2B]

On-Demand NAS Information [4A, 6B]

Separation Management [5A, 28B]

NAS Infrastructure

Environment & Energy

System Safety Management

Policy Issues

8 Operational Portfolios, 115 Increments [50A, 65B]

4 Non-Operational Portfolios

OWNA Capabilities and Processes Scope

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16

Weather-Impacted

Discussions with a group of ATM experts, focused on domain-specific capabilities and processes that involve weather-impacted operational decision-making, are used to identify both “as-is” and “to-be” weather information attributes, which are recorded, interpreted, compared and reported out 

Weather-impacted

For each NSIP increment, determine if the increment has a direct weather dependency

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Direct Weather Dependency

Direct weather dependency – Systems and capabilities associated with the increment require raw and/or translated weather information in order to successfully function

Raw weather is directly sensed or measured

Examples – temperature, wind, radar imagery

Translated weather is comprised of one or more raw weather elements that have been transformed into a parameter that is not directly sensed or measured

Examples – wind chill, heat index, ITWS microburst alert, weather avoidance field (WAF)

So...of the 115 operational increments in the NSIP V5.0, how many have a direct weather dependency?

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OWNA Scope – NSIP Increments with Direct Weather Dependency

Of the 115 Increments found in the 8 Operational NSIP portfolios, 7 were determined to have direct weather dependencies:

CATM Portfolio (5)

CACR (A)

RAPT (A)

A-RAPT [ARAP] (B)

IDRP (B)

AARDS (B)

IMRO Portfolio (2)

WTMD (A)

WTMA-S (B)

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19

Operational Decision-Making

Discussions with a group of ATM experts, focused on domain-specific capabilities and processes that involve weather-impacted operational decision-making, are used to identify both “as-is” and “to-be” weather information attributes, which are recorded, interpreted, compared and reported out 

Operational Decision-Making

Examine the problem(s) that each increment is supposed to resolve in the context of an appropriate decision model

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Weather-Impacted OperationalDecision Model

21

Iterative process, five phases

Monitor (M) and Identify Constraint (IC) directly involve and require weather information

Analyze Impact (AI) uses weather and air traffic information to quantify the extent of the demand/capacity problem

Plan (P) and Act (A) do not necessarily require the same weather information

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The Big Picture (or What do ATM-Weather Integration and OWNA have to do with each other?)

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22

“As-Is” and “To-Be” Weather Information Attributes

Discussions with a group of ATM experts, focused on domain-specific capabilities and processes that involve weather-impacted operational decision-making, are used to identify both “as-is” and “to-be” weather information attributes, which are recorded, interpreted, compared and reported out 

Weather Information Attributes

Primarily qualitative (“...you don’t know what you don’t know...”)

Categorized for both observations and forecasts

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23

Recording Results

Discussions with a group of ATM experts, focused on domain-specific capabilities and processes that involve weather-impacted operational decision-making, are used to identify both “as-is” and “to-be” weather information attributes, which are recorded, interpreted, compared and reported out

Provides traceability

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24

Interpreting Results

Discussions with a group of ATM experts, focused on domain-specific capabilities and processes that involve weather-impacted operational decision-making, are used to identify both “as-is” and “to-be” weather information attributes, which are recorded, interpreted, compared and reported out

If the ATM decision makers “don’t know what they don’t know,” then how do you know what they are REALLY saying?

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25

Reading Between the Lines

“...SMEs look at METARsfrom nearby airports whilein the 8+ to 4 hour planningphase for enrouteconvection...”

MIGHT MEAN

...SMEs don’t “trust” thecurrent enroute convectiveforecast...

MIGHT MEAN

...the current convectiveforecast product is not aseffective as it could be...

...SMEs do not understand how to cognitively process probabilistic forecast information... 

NOTHING

READ

IS EVER

BETWEEN

WHAT IT

THE LINES.

SEEMS.

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26

OWNA

Discussions with a group of ATM experts, focused on domain-specific capabilities and processes that involve weather-impacted operational decision-making, are used to identify both “as-is” and “to-be” weather information attributes, which are recorded, interpreted, compared and reported out

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27

OWNA – CACR

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Collaborative Airspace Constraint Resolution (CACR) Description and Use
| Description          | “...combination of new and existing systems and processes, intended to enable the seamless integration of enroute airspace traffic flow management (TFM) six or more hours to approximately 30 minutes prior to a constraint.”“...directly incorporating NAS user preferences in traffic management solutions and providing tools for collaboration throughout the management of an event.”             |              |         |           |         |             |
|----------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------|---------|-----------|---------|-------------|
| Portfolio            | CATM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                |              |         |           |         |             |
| Segment              | Bravo (2015-2020)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   |              |         |           |         |             |
| Level of Integration | Level 2 – Automatic translation of convective weather forecasts into NAS constraintsLevel 3? – Automatic calculation of operational impacts                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         |              |         |           |         |             |
| Direct Use           | Planning (Flow)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     | Next Day+    | 8+-4    | 4-2       | 2-1     | 1-Cessation |
|                      |                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     |              |         |           |         |             |
|                      | Execution (Flight)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  | Flt Planning | Surface | Departure | Enroute | Arrival     |
|                      |                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     |              |         |           |         |             |

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Collaborative Airspace Constraint Resolution (CACR) Weather and Core Decision Information
| Explicit Weather Needs           | “...certain weather information improvements could greatly increase CACR's effectiveness. The improvements should include more reliable weather forecasts, the translation of weather information into aviation constraints and operational impacts, as well as data regarding the uncertainty of the weather-related information.”“CACR will translate tactical weather forecasts into weather impact forecasts for sector capacities.”           |
|----------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Weather Constraint(s)            | Enroute Convection (potentially enroute turbulence)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              |
| Core Decisions (Planning Domain) | (M) Will there be convective weather in enroute airspace within my area of interest?(IC) Will the convective weather reduce the capacity of the enroute airspace? (AI) Will the capacity reduction lead to a demand/capacity imbalance?(P) Is the use of CACR an appropriate mitigation strategy?(A) Use CACR?                                                                                                                                   |

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30

Shortfall Analysis – Content
| Attribute                     | Current                                                                                                                                                                             | Needed                                                                                                                                                                                                         | Gap | WET Comments                                                                                                                                       |
|-------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Automated Alerting            | Few products feature automatic alerting when specific hazardous weather phenomena are observed or forecast to occur in the AOR.                                                     | Automated alerting when thunderstorms are observed or forecast in key enroute airspace regions.                                                                                                                | Y   | Agree. RAPT provides translated alerting.What % of time does the alert have to be right?                                                           |
| Data Type(raw vs. translated) | Little translated weather information is available via current weather products, and none is available for direct use by ATM decision-makers.                                       | The CACR CONOPS calls for the availability and use of translated convective weather information. There are no translated graphical products for direct use by ATM decision-makers in the development pipeline. | Y   | Did not agree or disagree. Decision-makers need to get comfortable with the automation. HF – need transition time (learning curve/trust factor).   |
| Weather Elements              | Current raw weather observation and forecast products cover all major weather elements. However, translated weather products are only available for convective weather constraints. | Translated weather products will eventually be needed for turbulence and icing constraints.                                                                                                                    | M   | Agree. Possibly space weather and volcanic ash, too.                                                                                               |

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Shortfall Analysis – Level of Detail
| Attribute                                                 | Current                                                                                                                                                  | Needed                                                                                                                                                                   | Gap | WET Comments        |
|-----------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----|---------------------|
| Spatial(area of forecast coverage and resolution)         | The level of spatial detail of current weather observation and forecast products varies from product to product, but is generally perceived as adequate. | There were no specific spatial detail requirements that came out of the CACR OWRA discussions.                                                                           | N   | Agree. No comments. |
| Temporal(update rate, valid time, standard forecast time) | The level of temporal detail of current weather observation and forecast products varies from product to product, as do the perceptions of adequacy.     | For enroute convective constraints, better temporal resolution than is currently available via CCFP (1-hour forecasts vs. 2-hour forecasts) was seen as being important. | Y   | Agree. No comments. |

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Shortfall Analysis – Production
| Attribute                             | Current                                                                                                   | Needed                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     | Gap | WET Comments |
|---------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----|--------------|
| Method(manual, HITL, HOTL, automated) | Current weather observation and forecast products are mostly produced via manual and automated processes. | There were no new explicit requirements that more products be produced via one method or another in support of CACR. However, to provide some of the described products, it is clear that more and more will come from automated and HITL/HOTL methods, while fewer are produced manually. | N   | No comments. |

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Shortfall Analysis – Properties
| Attribute       | Current                                                                                                    | Needed                                                                                                                                                                            | Gap | WET Comments                                                                             |
|-----------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Onset/Cessation | Few if any current convective weather forecast products included explicit onset and cessation information. | The inclusion of explicit onset and cessation information was seen as critical in support of CACR.                                                                                | Y   | Agree. CIWS/CoSPA have implicit onset/cessation information as returns appear/disappear. |
| Scoring         | Few (CIWS, ITWS) current weather forecast products provide real-time forecast scoring information.         | The inclusion of explicit weather forecast scoring information was seen as important to the manual, cognitive use of convective weather forecasts in support of the CACR process. | M   | Agree. No comments.                                                                      |
| Trend           | No current weather forecast products provide real-time trend information.                                  | The inclusion of forecast trend information was seen as important to the manual and automated use of convective weather forecasts in support of CACR.                             | Y   | Agree. No comments.                                                                      |

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Shortfall Analysis – Other (1/3)
| Attribute                   | Current                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               | Needed                                                                                 | Gap | WET Comments       |
|-----------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----|--------------------|
| Numbers of Displays         | Search out and cognitively assimilate numerous, stand-alone weather products.                                                                                                                                                                         | Access all necessary weather information from a single, map-based graphical interface, | Y   | Agree. No comment. |
| Convective Forecast Content | Many convective forecast products contain some storm top, intensity and mode information, historical and real-time forecast scoring, explicit convective initiation and cessation times, and enhanced growth and decay information. None contain all. | A single convective forecast product with all the necessary information.               | Y   | Agree. No comment. |

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Shortfall Analysis – Other (2/3)
| Attribute                    | Current                                                                                                                                                     | Needed                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             | Gap | WET Comments             |
|------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----|--------------------------|
| Official Convection Forecast | CCFP – updated every two hours, probabilistic, single view, hand drawn                                                                                      | The official TFM convective forecast product (evolution of CCFP) should be a hybrid product that transitions from an ECFP-like form at the longer forecast periods to a CIWS-like display close to the event, updates more frequently than CCFP and has improved latency vs. SREF. | Y   | Agree (after rewording). |
| Translation                  | With few exceptions, any translation of raw weather information into NAS constraint and conversion to impact is done cognitively by the ATM decision-maker. | Translated weather information should be combined with historical traffic information to identify projected NAS impact areas, available in graphic form to the ATM decision-maker and in digital form to planning and problem resolution services.                                 | Y   | No comment.              |

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Shortfall Analysis – Other (3/3)
| Attribute                 | Current                                                                                | Needed                                                                                                                                                                      | Gap | WET Comments |
|---------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----|--------------|
| Available Weather Sources | Only officially approved information and traditional sources.                          | Information from non-traditional sources (e.g., CWOP, MADIS, MDCRS, TAMDAR) should be made available to ATM decision-makers.                                                | Y   | No comment.  |
| Alerting Functionality    | With few exceptions, weather systems do not contain any viable alerting functionality. | Alerting functionality should be a part of any future weather or weather-related decision support system whose information is manually retrieved and cognitively processed. | Y   | No comment.  |

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37

Preliminary WTIC-Related Findings from CACR OWNA (1/2)

Direct Use

What if the PIC is also functioning as his own AOC? Or DSP?

Communication (non-verbal) with the cockpit is essential

Downstream Linkage

All Execution (Flight Operation) domain phases except Flight Planning are downstream of the CACR process

CACR-driven trajectory changes could take place during the Surface, Departure and Cruise phases

Execution of CACR-driven trajectory changes – new capabilities, information or products required?
| Direct Use | Planning (Flow)    | Next Day+    | 8+-4    | 4-2       | 2-1     | 1-Cessation |
|------------|--------------------|--------------|---------|-----------|---------|-------------|
|            |                    |              |         |           |         |             |
|            | Execution (Flight) | Flt Planning | Surface | Departure | Enroute | Arrival     |
|            |                    |              |         |           |         |             |

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Preliminary WTIC-Related Findings from CACR OWNA (2/2)

Problem – number of CACR-driven reroutes = ?

Problem – cockpit level of shared situation awareness?

Problem – high volume of post-reroute radio traffic?

Solution – leverage WTIC-type functionality.

Provide a pictorial representation of the revised trajectory, along with accompanying weather graphics, to the cockpit

Need not be the sole responsibility of FAA

Operator may be responsible to create and transmit the trajectory-change graphic, based on some kind of electronic trigger sent by FAA once the reroute has been issued

Benefit – Mitigate the need for the flight crew to pick up the radio and ask questions of clearance delivery, or fire up the ACARS to find out, alongside the dispatcher’s other affected flights, why they have been rerouted, or delayed, or both

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Backup Slides

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