Housing Forecast: April 2021

20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 2020 2021 2022

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,484 1,079 1,432 1,584 1,563 1,689 1,643 1,582 1,544 1,542 1,539 1,539 1,380 1,619 1,541

 Percent Change: YoY 7.0 17.3 -4.8

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 968 766 1,037 1,227 1,142 1,305 1,264 1,198 1,159 1,152 1,146 1,143 991 1,227 1,150

 Percent Change: YoY 11.7 23.8 -6.3

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 517 313 395 357 421 384 379 384 385 390 393 396 389 392 391

 Percent Change: YoY -3.3 0.7 -0.3

 Total Home Sales 6,187 5,086 7,077 7,570 7,118 7,121 6,669 6,531 6,497 6,490 6,490 6,495 6,460 6,860 6,493

 Percent Change: YoY 7.3 6.2 -5.3

 New Single-Family 701 703 974 914 891 964 942 918 902 893 883 881 820 929 890

 Percent Change: YoY 20.1 13.3 -4.2

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,487 4,383 6,103 6,657 6,227 6,157 5,727 5,613 5,595 5,596 5,607 5,614 5,640 5,931 5,603

 Percent Change: YoY 5.6 5.2 -5.5

NSA, Thous. $

 Median New Home Price 330 323 333 351 371 365 372 382 393 381 383 392 334 373 387

 Median Existing Home Price 272 288 309 311 307 326 346 338 325 340 356 347 295 329 342

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 FHFA Purchase-Only Index 6.2 5.7 8.0 10.9 12.3 13.0 11.0 8.0 5.3 4.2 3.1 2.9 10.9 8.0 2.9

Percent

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.1 3.2 3.6

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.1 2.9 3.1

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 752 1,096 1,346 1,342 1,234 1,146 868 750 653 798 804 733 4,536 3,998 2,987

 Purchase 290 353 513 489 361 539 530 455 369 523 530 459 1,645 1,885 1,881

 Refinance 462 742 833 853 873 607 339 296 284 275 274 274 2,891 2,114 1,107

 Refinance Share (Percent) 61 68 62 64 71 53 39 39 44 34 34 37 64 53 37

 --------------- 2020 --------------- --------------- 2021 --------------- --------------- 2022 ---------------

April 12, 2021

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from March 31, 2021.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: FHFA Purchase-Only Index and median home price forecasts are updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's 

business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although 

the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, 

current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, 

and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.