`

Housing Forecast: August 2022

21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 2021 2022 2023

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,581 1,591 1,569 1,679 1,720 1,652 1,446 1,368 1,294 1,279 1,308 1,364 1,601 1,546 1,311

 Percent Change: YoY 16.0 -3.4 -15.2

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 1,138 1,112 1,104 1,170 1,187 1,074 912 841 824 834 868 916 1,127 1,004 860

 Percent Change: YoY 13.8 -11.0 -14.3

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 443 479 465 509 533 577 534 527 470 445 440 448 474 543 451

 Percent Change: YoY 21.8 14.6 -16.9

 Total Home Sales 7,140 6,704 6,781 6,959 6,833 5,989 5,208 5,071 4,974 4,998 5,269 5,478 6,891 5,775 5,180

 Percent Change: YoY 6.6 -16.2 -10.3

 New Single-Family 853 754 715 755 776 612 583 556 551 570 620 662 771 632 601

 Percent Change: YoY -6.2 -18.0 -4.9

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 6,287 5,950 6,067 6,203 6,057 5,377 4,625 4,515 4,423 4,428 4,649 4,816 6,120 5,143 4,579

 Percent Change: YoY 8.5 -16.0 -11.0

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 Fannie Mae HPI 12.9 17.2 19.3 18.9 20.5 19.4 17.4 16.0 11.3 7.8 6.3 4.4 18.9 16.0 4.4

Percent: Quarterly Avg, Annual Avg

 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.8 5.2 5.1 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.4 3.0 4.7 4.5

 5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.9 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 2.6 3.8 3.9

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 1,239 1,122 1,102 1,007 739 656 524 553 431 619 638 601 4,469 2,473 2,289

 Purchase 367 501 518 477 383 492 423 405 299 469 482 447 1,863 1,704 1,697

 Refinance 871 620 584 530 356 164 102 147 132 150 156 154 2,606 769 592

 Refinance Share (Percent) 70 55 53 53 48 25 19 27 31 24 24 26 58 31 26

 --------------- 2021 --------------- --------------- 2022 --------------- --------------- 2023 ---------------

August 10, 2022

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from July 29, 2022; all other forecasts are based on the date above.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: The Fannie Mae HPI forecast is updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's 

business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although 

the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, 

current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, 

and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.