Housing Forecast: August 2019

18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 2018 2019 2020

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,321 1,260 1,233 1,185 1,213 1,263 1,240 1,250 1,252 1,247 1,240 1,233 1,250 1,241 1,243

 Percent Change: YoY 3.9 -0.7 0.1

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 893 894 876 828 864 842 868 886 894 893 890 888 876 865 891

 Percent Change: YoY 3.2 -1.2 3.0

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 428 365 357 357 349 420 372 364 358 354 350 345 374 376 352

 Percent Change: YoY 5.6 0.6 -6.5

 Total Home Sales 6,149 6,039 5,913 5,722 5,875 5,916 6,086 6,099 6,101 6,085 6,069 6,044 5,957 5,994 6,075

 Percent Change: YoY -2.7 0.6 1.3

 New Single-Family 642 632 607 579 669 636 668 664 663 654 649 644 617 659 652

 Percent Change: YoY 0.7 6.8 -1.0

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,507 5,407 5,307 5,143 5,207 5,280 5,418 5,435 5,438 5,431 5,420 5,400 5,340 5,335 5,422

 Percent Change: YoY -3.1 -0.1 1.6

NSA, Thous. $

 Median New Home Price 331 314 326 322 312 317 342 338 328 332 356 351 326 327 342

 Median Existing Home Price 244 266 264 256 253 277 277 269 266 290 289 278 259 269 281

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 FHFA Purchase-Only Index 7.4 6.8 6.5 5.9 5.1 4.7 4.9 5.4 5.3 4.9 4.3 3.7 5.9 5.4 3.7

Percent

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 4.5 4.0 3.7

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.8 3.6 3.3

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 368 476 429 365 326 502 568 443 339 469 469 422 1,637 1,839 1,699

 Purchase 227 349 319 266 218 353 340 290 229 351 351 301 1,161 1,200 1,232

 Refinance 141 126 110 99 108 150 228 153 109 118 118 121 477 638 467

 Refinance Share (Percent) 38 27 26 27 33 30 40 35 32 25 25 29 29 35 27

 --------------- 2018 --------------- --------------- 2019 --------------- --------------- 2020 ---------------

August 09, 2019

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from July 31, 2019.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or 

expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, 

analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. 

Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the 

views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.