Housing Forecast: December 2017

17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 2016 2017 2018

Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts 1,238 1,167 1,164 1,220 1,225 1,250 1,265 1,280 1,290 1,300 1,310 1,320 1,174 1,197 1,255

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 839 825 848 860 880 900 920 940 950 960 970 980 782 843 910

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 9.4% 7.9% 7.9%

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 399 342 316 360 345 350 345 340 340 340 340 340 392 354 345

New Single-Family Home Sales 617 605 591 670 681 692 712 728 740 754 766 774 561 621 703

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 12.0% 10.7% 13.3%

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops) 5,620 5,563 5,393 5,590 5,562 5,621 5,651 5,721 5,647 5,691 5,770 5,796 5,450 5,542 5,639

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 3.8% 1.7% 1.8%

Total Home Sales (New + Existing) 6,237 6,168 5,984 6,260 6,243 6,314 6,362 6,449 6,387 6,445 6,536 6,571 6,011 6,163 6,342

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 4.5% 2.5% 2.9%

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New 312 317 320 332 329 335 337 349 343 346 348 359 307 320 337

Median Total Existing 231 254 253 247 243 268 266 259 254 277 275 267 232 246 259

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (% Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 6.5% 6.9% 6.5% 5.8% 5.9% 5.8% 5.4% 5.1% 4.5% 3.6% 3.4% 3.2% 6.4% 5.8% 5.1%

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 3.6 4.0 4.1

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 2.9 3.2 3.5

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations 409 491 473 439 363 482 468 418 343 465 464 418 2,052 1,812 1,731

 Purchase 217 328 311 283 216 340 339 299 228 352 352 309 1,052 1,140 1,194

 Refinance 191 163 162 156 147 142 129 118 115 113 111 109 1,000 672 536

Refinance Share (%) 47% 33% 34% 36% 40% 30% 28% 28% 33% 24% 24% 26% 49% 37% 31%

December 11, 2017

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from November 30, 2017.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating 

Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend 

on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided 

in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. 

The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views 

of Fannie Mae or its management.

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