Housing Forecast: May 2017

16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 2016 2017 2018

Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts 1,151 1,159 1,145 1,248 1,253 1,240 1,240 1,265 1,310 1,330 1,340 1,350 1,174 1,250 1,333

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 790 755 758 834 836 850 860 880 920 940 960 980 782 857 950

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 9.4% 9.6% 10.9%

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 361 405 387 414 417 390 380 385 390 390 380 370 392 393 383

New Single-Family Home Sales 529 565 583 564 598 615 624 639 659 673 688 702 561 619 681

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 12.0% 10.3% 9.9%

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops) 5,300 5,503 5,390 5,570 5,623 5,699 5,524 5,544 5,594 5,627 5,676 5,778 5,450 5,597 5,668

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 3.8% 2.7% 1.3%

Total Home Sales (New + Existing) 5,829 6,068 5,973 6,134 6,221 6,314 6,149 6,182 6,253 6,299 6,364 6,480 6,011 6,216 6,349

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 4.5% 3.4% 2.1%

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New 305 313 307 318 305 330 323 334 320 345 337 347 311 323 337

Median Total Existing 216 239 239 234 231 253 252 246 242 264 263 255 232 245 256

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (% Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 6.1% 5.9% 6.0% 5.9% 5.2% 5.4% 5.0% 5.3% 4.9% 4.7% 4.4% 3.9% 5.9% 5.3% 3.9%

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 3.6 4.1 4.2

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.9 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 2.9 3.2 3.5

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations 373 505 599 574 361 454 414 362 310 424 425 379 2,051 1,590 1,538

 Purchase 189 291 311 270 204 311 305 261 212 328 331 286 1,061 1,081 1,158

 Refinance 184 215 288 304 158 143 109 100 98 95 94 93 991 510 381

Refinance Share (%) 49% 42% 48% 53% 44% 32% 26% 28% 32% 23% 22% 25% 48% 32% 25%

May 10, 2017

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from April 28, 2017.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating 

Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend 

on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided 

in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. 

The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views 

of Fannie Mae or its management.

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