Housing Forecast: September 2020

19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 2019 2020 2021

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,204 1,257 1,288 1,433 1,484 1,064 1,447 1,382 1,390 1,418 1,452 1,480 1,290 1,344 1,435

 Percent Change: YoY 3.2 4.2 6.7

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 859 850 897 964 968 759 977 1,028 1,062 1,085 1,109 1,130 888 933 1,097

 Percent Change: YoY 1.4 5.1 17.5

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 345 407 390 469 517 305 470 354 328 333 343 350 402 412 339

 Percent Change: YoY 7.5 2.3 -17.7

 Total Home Sales 5,864 5,957 6,108 6,131 6,184 4,996 6,775 6,438 6,234 6,215 6,248 6,273 6,023 6,098 6,242

 Percent Change: YoY 1.1 1.3 2.4

 New Single-Family 667 663 698 711 701 683 880 844 813 823 838 847 683 777 830

 Percent Change: YoY 10.7 13.8 6.8

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,197 5,293 5,410 5,420 5,483 4,313 5,895 5,594 5,421 5,392 5,410 5,426 5,340 5,321 5,412

 Percent Change: YoY 0.0 -0.4 1.7

NSA, Thous. $

 Median New Home Price 312 321 317 327 330 320 335 341 338 325 337 342 322 331 335

 Median Existing Home Price 253 277 277 272 272 288 293 284 279 292 294 285 272 284 288

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 FHFA Purchase-Only Index 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.4 6.0 5.4 5.6 4.4 2.4 1.5 0.6 1.0 5.4 4.4 1.0

Percent

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.9 3.1 2.7

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 3.6 3.0 2.6

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 359 581 752 770 791 1,197 1,075 806 554 680 700 635 2,462 3,869 2,569

 Purchase 238 379 378 331 291 370 416 367 281 416 424 370 1,326 1,443 1,491

 Refinance 120 202 374 439 500 827 659 440 273 264 276 265 1,136 2,426 1,078

 Refinance Share (Percent) 34 35 50 57 63 69 61 55 49 39 39 42 46 63 42

 --------------- 2019 --------------- --------------- 2020 --------------- --------------- 2021 ---------------

September 10, 2020

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from August 31, 2020.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

 2019 mortgage originations were revised as part of an annual benchmark to the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA)

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or 

expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, 

analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. 

Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the 

views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.