Economic Forecast: January 2024

23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.4 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.4 2022 2023 2024 2025

Percent Change: Quarterly SAAR, Annual Q4/Q4

 Gross Domestic Product 2.2 2.1 4.9 1.2 0.9 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 0.7 2.6 1.1 1.6

 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) 3.8 0.8 3.1 2.2 1.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 2.5 0.9 1.2

 Residential Fixed Investment -5.3 -2.2 6.7 -0.7 1.2 0.6 4.6 3.9 5.4 5.9 5.9 5.0 -17.4 -0.5 2.6 5.5

 Business Fixed Investment 5.7 7.4 1.4 3.6 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 5.6 4.5 1.2 1.9

 Government Consumption & Investment 4.8 3.3 5.8 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 3.6 0.6 0.3

Billions of Chained 2012$

 Net Exports -1243 -1231 -1236 -1254 -1274 -1268 -1256 -1247 -1241 -1238 -1234 -1230 -1366 -1241 -1261 -1236

 Change in Business Inventories 28 16 81 49 37 27 26 39 55 62 69 74 133 43 32 65

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 Consumer Price Index 5.8 4.1 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 7.1 3.2 2.6 2.6

 Core Consumer Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) 5.6 5.2 4.4 4.0 3.6 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 6.0 4.0 2.7 2.5

 PCE Chain Price Index 5.0 3.9 3.3 2.8 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 5.9 2.8 2.2 2.3

 Core PCE Chain Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) 4.8 4.6 3.8 3.2 2.6 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 5.1 3.2 2.3 2.2

Change: Quarterly Avg Mo. Chg, Thous., Annual Mil.

 Employment, Total Nonfarm 312 201 221 165 108 64 41 30 41 48 57 53 4.8 2.7 0.7 0.6

 Percent Change: Q4/Q4 3.4 1.8 0.6 0.4

Percent: Quarterly Avg, Annual Avg

 Unemployment Rate 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 3.6 3.6 4.1 4.3

 Federal Funds Rate 4.5 5.0 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.2 4.8 4.5 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.6 1.7 5.0 5.0 3.7

1-Year Treasury Note Yield 4.8 4.9 5.4 5.2 4.5 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 2.8 5.1 4.0 3.6

10-Year Treasury Note Yield 3.6 3.6 4.2 4.4 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.0 4.0 3.8 3.8

January 10, 2024

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from December 29, 2023; all other forecasts are based on the date above.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business 

prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases 

its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any 

particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the 

ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management. 

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