Housing Forecast: May 2020

19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 2019 2020 2021

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,213 1,256 1,282 1,441 1,466 957 1,059 1,150 1,183 1,216 1,249 1,282 1,290 1,158 1,233

 Percent Change: YoY 3.2 -10.2 6.4

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 864 847 894 970 962 672 743 815 840 865 890 915 888 798 878

 Percent Change: YoY 1.4 -10.1 10.0

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 349 409 388 470 505 285 316 335 343 351 359 367 402 360 355

 Percent Change: YoY 7.5 -10.5 -1.4

 Total Home Sales 5,865 5,954 6,108 6,130 6,198 4,304 4,778 5,251 5,453 5,859 6,011 6,061 6,023 5,133 5,846

 Percent Change: YoY 1.1 -14.8 13.9

 New Single-Family 669 661 698 710 715 429 588 601 615 633 651 670 683 583 642

 Percent Change: YoY 10.7 -14.6 10.1

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,197 5,293 5,410 5,420 5,483 3,875 4,190 4,650 4,838 5,226 5,360 5,392 5,340 4,550 5,204

 Percent Change: YoY 0.0 -14.8 14.4

NSA, Thous. $

 Median New Home Price 312 321 317 327 327 328 322 327 327 334 326 332 322 326 330

 Median Existing Home Price 253 277 277 272 272 283 281 273 272 288 285 277 272 277 280

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 FHFA Purchase-Only Index 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.1 4.1 1.4 1.3 0.4 0.7 2.3 1.8 2.1 5.1 0.4 2.1

Percent

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.9 3.2 2.9

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.6 3.1 2.7

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 334 540 716 708 641 725 667 592 503 677 665 591 2,298 2,625 2,437

 Purchase 227 360 381 316 246 276 296 278 225 369 370 323 1,284 1,095 1,287

 Refinance 107 180 335 392 395 450 371 314 278 308 296 269 1,013 1,530 1,150

 Refinance Share (Percent) 32 33 47 55 62 62 56 53 55 45 44 45 44 58 47

 --------------- 2019 --------------- --------------- 2020 --------------- --------------- 2021 ---------------

May 11, 2020

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from April 30, 2020.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects 

or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, 

analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. 

Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the 

views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.