Housing Forecast: November 2022

22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.4 2021 2022 2023 2024

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,720 1,647 1,461 1,351 1,223 1,129 1,099 1,099 1,135 1,198 1,267 1,338 1,601 1,545 1,137 1,235

 Percent Change: YoY 16.0 -3.5 -26.4 8.6

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 1,187 1,086 909 856 764 738 756 778 809 863 905 939 1,127 1,010 759 879

 Percent Change: YoY 13.8 -10.4 -24.8 15.8

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 533 561 551 495 459 390 343 321 326 335 362 399 474 535 378 356

 Percent Change: YoY 21.8 12.9 -29.3 -5.9

 Total Home Sales 6,833 5,982 5,378 4,478 4,289 4,265 4,461 4,681 4,903 5,132 5,376 5,578 6,891 5,668 4,424 5,247

 Percent Change: YoY 6.6 -17.7 -22.0 18.6

 New Single-Family 776 609 608 562 498 499 545 566 586 629 677 710 771 639 527 651

 Percent Change: YoY -6.2 -17.1 -17.5 23.5

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 6,057 5,373 4,770 3,916 3,791 3,766 3,915 4,115 4,317 4,504 4,699 4,868 6,120 5,029 3,897 4,597

 Percent Change: YoY 8.4 -17.8 -22.5 18.0

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 Fannie Mae HPI 20.0 19.1 13.8 9.0 3.3 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.4 -1.5 -1.4 -1.4 18.9 9.0 -1.5 -1.4

Percent: Quarterly Avg, Annual Avg

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.8 5.2 5.6 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.3 6.1 6.0 5.9 3.0 5.4 6.8 6.1

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 745 676 520 398 326 452 473 461 406 567 582 553 4,570 2,339 1,712 2,107

 Purchase 394 506 422 318 241 361 375 360 281 431 441 416 1,900 1,640 1,337 1,569

 Refinance 351 170 98 80 84 92 98 101 125 135 141 137 2,670 699 375 538

 Refinance Share (Percent) 47 25 19 20 26 20 21 22 31 24 24 25 58 30 22 26

 --------------- 2022 --------------- --------------- 2023 --------------- --------------- 2024 ---------------

November 10, 2022

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from October 31, 2022; all other forecasts are based on the date above.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: The Fannie Mae HPI forecast is updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business 

prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases 

its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any 

particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the 

ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.