Homebuyers, Owners, & Renters
      
      Homebuyers, Owners, and Renters

          
                        Business Partners
                  Single-Family Business

Helping lenders serve homebuyers and homeowners with affordable mortgages
    
          Multifamily Business

Financing for quality, affordable rental housing in every market, every day
    
          Capital Markets

Reducing risk and enhancing housing finance liquidity
          About Us
                toggle
                Who We Are
                                              toggle
                        Awards and Recognition
                                                      Diversity and Inclusion
                                                              toggle
                                Employee Resource Groups
                                                                      Progress With Purpose
                                                      Employee Code of Conduct
                                                      Community Engagement
                                                      History
                                      What We Do
                                              toggle
                        Duty to Serve
                                                              toggle
                                Manufactured Housing
                                                                      Affordable Housing Preservation
                                                                      Rural Housing
                                                                      Research Initiatives
                                                                      Colonias Investment Areas
                                                      Homeownership
                                                              toggle
                                Access to Mortgage Credit
                                                                      Restrictive Covenants
                                                      Innovation
                                                      Mortgage Finance in America
                                                      Financial Performance
                                                      Disaster Resiliency and Relief
                                                      Pilot Transparency
                                      Leadership Team
                                      Corporate Governance
                                              toggle
                        Corporate Governance Guidelines
                                                      Fannie Mae Charter
                                                      Board of Directors
                                                      Committees
                                                      Committee Charters
                                                      Code of Conduct
                                                      Bylaws
                                                      Contacting the Board of Directors
                                                      Housing Reports
                                      Investor Relations
                                              toggle
                        Quarterly and Annual Results
                                                      Annual Reports
                                                      SEC Filings
                                                              toggle
                                All SEC Filings
                                                                      Annual Filings
                                                                      Quarterly Filings
                                                                      Current Reports
                                                                      Section 16 Filings
                                                                      Proxy Filings
                                                      Additional Disclosures
                                                              toggle
                                Monthly Summary
                                                                      Capital Disclosures
                                                      Stock Information
                                                      Current Stock Information
                                                      Contact Information
                                      ESG
                                              toggle
                        Learn about our business
                                                      Environmental
                                                      Social
                                                              toggle
                                Equitable Housing Finance Plan
                                                      Governance
                                                      Sustainable Bonds
                                                              toggle
                                Green Bonds
                                                                      Social Bonds
                                                      Reports & Disclosures
                                                              toggle
                                2021 ESG Report
                                      Research & Insights
                                              toggle
                        Forecast
                                                              toggle
                                Monthly Archive
                                                                      Weekly Archive
                                                      Surveys & Indices
                                                              toggle
                                National Housing Survey
                                                                      Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey
                                                                      Fannie Mae Home Price Index
                                                                      Refinance Application-Level Index
                                                                      Special Topics
                                                      Publications
                                                              toggle
                                Fannie Mae Working Papers
                                                                      Housing Insights
                                                                      Partner Research
                                                                      Publications Archive
                                                      Perspectives
                                                              toggle
                                Archive - 2020
                                                                      Archive - 2021
                                                                      Archive - 2022
                                                                      Archive - 2023
                                      Newsroom
                                              toggle
                        News
                                                      Media Resources
          
                        Careers
                toggle
                Our Teams
                                              toggle
                        Corporate Teams
                                                      Data & Analytics
                                                      Digital & Technology
                                                      Mortgage & Customer Solutions
                                                      Risk Management
                                      Life at Fannie Mae
                                      Diversity & Inclusion
                                      Benefits & Professional Development
                                      Campus
          
                        Contact Us
                      
            Google Translate Disclaimer
            The Google Translate feature is a third-party service that is available for informational purposes only. Fannie Mae is unable to guarantee the accuracy of any translation resulting from the tool and is not responsible for any event or damage that occurs as a result of using the translations generated by the Google Translate feature.
            OK
  Translate
        Translation Disclaimer
          Chinese, Traditional
            English
            Filipino
            Korean
            Spanish
            Vietnamese
 FM Site Nav
  

        

Homepage
                    
      Fannie Mae logo
    Toggle navigation
      Rent
                
                All Renter Resources
                                      The Rental Process
                                      Make Your Rent Count
                                      Credit Basics
                      
            Buy
                
                All Homebuyer Resources
                                      7 Steps to Homeownership
                                      HomeView Homeownership Education Course
                      
            Own
                
                All Homeowner Resources
                                      Make the Most of Your Home
                                      Refinancing Your Mortgage
                                      When It’s Time to Sell
                      
            Get Relief
                  Manage Financial Uncertainty

All Resources to Manage Financial Uncertainty

Help for Homeowners

Help for Renters

Protect Yourself from Fraud
    
          Recover from a Disaster

All Resources for Recovering from a Disaster

Recovery Assistance for Homeowners

Recovery Assistance for Renters

Protect Yourself from Fraud
                      
            Calculators & Tools
                
                All Calculators & Tools
                                      Tools for Renters
                                      Tools for Homebuyers
                                      Tools for Homeowners
                                      HomeView® Homeownership Education Course
                                      Glossary
                                      Mobile AppToggle search
 Skip to main content
          
    
    Home
                        Research and Insights
                        Forecast
                        GDI Surges to End 2023, but Q1 Indicators Continue to Point to Slowing Growth
    Economic & Housing Weekly Note
GDI Surges to End 2023, but Q1 Indicators Continue to Point to Slowing Growth
March 29, 2024
**Key Takeaways:**

**Gross domestic product (GDP)**, adjusted for inflation, increased at a 3.4 percent seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) in Q4 2023, according to the third estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), an upward revision of two-tenths compared to the second estimate. The upgrade reflects higher consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment. Gross domestic income (GDI), which is a theoretically equivalent measure to GDP but can diverge due to measurement differences, surged at a 4.8 percent SAAR. Prior to the fourth quarter, GDI had been significantly weaker than GDP since Q4 2022.
	**Personal income**, adjusted for inflation, declined 0.1 percent in February following a 0.6 percent gain the month prior, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Real disposable personal income was also down 0.1 percent. Despite the negative income readings, real personal consumption expenditures rose 0.4 percent. This brought the saving rate down to 3.6 percent, a decline of five-tenths and the lowest level since December 2022. The PCE Price Index rose 0.3 percent over the month and 2.5 percent compared to a year ago. Excluding food and energy, core PCE prices rose 0.3 percent in February and were up 2.8 percent compared to a year earlier.
	**Durable goods orders** rose 1.4 percent in February, partially rebounding from an aircraft-related decline of 6.9 percent in January, according to the Census Bureau. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders increased 0.5 percent. Shipments of core capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for business equipment investment, declined 0.4 percent, though orders in the same category were up 0.7 percent.
	**The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index** declined one-tenth to 104.7 in March. Confidence in the present situation was up 3.4 points to 151.0, while the index for consumer expectations declined 2.5 points to 73.8.
	**New single-family home sales** declined 0.3 percent to a SAAR of 662,000 in February, according to the Census Bureau. The months’ supply moved up one-tenth to 8.4 percent as the number of new homes available for sale rose 1.3 percent to 463,000.
	**The National Association of REALTORS® Pending Home Sales Index**, which records contract signings of existing homes and typically leads closed sales by one to two months, increased 1.6 percent to 75.6.
	**The FHFA Purchase-Only House Price Index** declined a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent in January. Compared to a year ago, home prices were up 6.3 percent on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. In contrast to the monthly decline in the FHFA index, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 0.4 percent over the month (seasonally adjusted) and was up 6.0 percent compared to a year prior (non-seasonally adjusted).**Forecast Impact:**

Prior to the fourth quarter surge in GDI, we had noted that the significantly weaker figures relative to the theoretically equivalent GDP numbers added uncertainty and downside risk to our forecast. Both GDP and GDI now point to an economy that grew well above trend in the fourth quarter. Still, we continue to expect a slowing in economic growth in 2024 as higher interest rates weigh on spending and investment. Consistent with this view, shipments in core capital goods, a proxy for business investment, contracted in February. Real personal consumption expenditures showed some unexpected strength in February given the earlier soft reading of control group retail sales, but they followed a downward revision to January. Further, real disposable income growth remains sluggish, resulting in a likely unsustainably low saving rate, supportive of a slowdown in spending as the year progresses. On the inflation front, the PCE price index is tracking above our Q1 forecast, which will likely lead us to revise upward our forecast.

New home sales are currently tracking modestly below our forecast, which will likely lead us to revise downward our forecast in the near term. Still, we continue to expect new home sales to generally drift upward this year as homebuilder confidence is rising and starts activity remains robust. On the existing side, the gain in pending sales suggests that, on the surface, existing home sales should rise in March. However, the nearly 5 percent drop in pending sales the month prior failed to predict the 9.5 percent jump in existing sales in February, so we continue to believe that some giveback in March is likely.





Nathaniel Drake
Economic and Strategic Research Group
March 29, 2024

*Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.*

TOPICS
  
Fannie Mae Corporate
  
  
      Twitter
              Facebook
              Linkedin
              Email
Research and Insights
                                                              Forecast
                                                              Monthly Archive
                                    Weekly Archive
                                    Surveys & Indices
                                    Publications
                                    Perspectives

Our Company
    About Us
      Contact Us
      Careers
      Investor Relations
      Newsroom
      Research & Insights
      ESG
  Business Partners
    Single-Family Business
      Multifamily Business
      Capital Markets
	      Suppliers
      Developer Portal
  Homebuyers, Owners, & Renters
    Educational Resources
      Credit Basics
      HomeView Homeownership Education Course
      HomePath - Search for Homes
      Make Your Rent CountCalculators & Tools
      All Calculators and Tools      Glossary of Key Terms
      Mortgage Calculator
      Down Payment Assistance Search Tool
      Mobile AppLet Us Help You
      Contact a Housing Counselor
      Manage Financial Uncertainty
      Recover from a Disaster
    
    
  

      
Social media
  

        
            Follow us
          Follow us
          Facebook
          Twitter
          LinkedIn
          Instagram
    Footer
  

        
            Legal
          Privacy
          Digital Accessibility
                Cookie Preferences
            © 2024 Fannie Mae