Housing Forecast: June 2019

18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 2018 2019 2020

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Housing Starts 1,321 1,260 1,233 1,185 1,203 1,211 1,253 1,259 1,266 1,260 1,253 1,241 1,250 1,231 1,255

 Percent Change: YoY 3.9 -1.5 1.9

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 893 894 876 828 854 856 888 904 912 908 904 898 876 875 906

 Percent Change: YoY 3.2 0.0 3.4

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 428 365 357 357 349 355 365 355 354 352 349 343 374 356 349

 Percent Change: YoY 5.6 -4.9 -1.8

 Total Home Sales 6,149 6,039 5,913 5,722 5,885 5,975 6,088 6,111 6,111 6,079 6,061 6,044 5,957 6,015 6,074

 Percent Change: YoY -2.7 1.0 1.0

 New Single-Family Home Sales 642 632 607 579 679 655 656 661 665 654 649 644 617 663 653

 Percent Change: YoY 0.7 7.4 -1.5

 Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,507 5,407 5,307 5,143 5,207 5,320 5,432 5,450 5,446 5,425 5,412 5,400 5,340 5,352 5,421

 Percent Change: YoY -3.1 0.2 1.3

NSA, Thous. $

 Median New 331 314 326 322 309 328 339 336 322 340 351 345 326 328 340

 Median Total Existing 244 266 264 256 253 277 275 267 264 288 284 274 259 268 277

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 FHFA Purchase-Only Index 7.4 6.8 6.5 5.9 5.1 4.2 4.1 4.6 4.6 3.9 3.5 2.9 5.9 4.6 2.9

Percent

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.4 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.5 4.0 3.8

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.8 3.6 3.4

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 368 476 429 365 326 495 459 401 334 460 453 406 1,637 1,680 1,653

 Purchase 227 349 319 266 218 346 332 289 229 354 345 297 1,161 1,186 1,225

 Refinance 141 126 110 99 108 149 126 111 106 106 108 108 477 494 428

 Refinance Share (Percent) 38 27 26 27 33 30 28 28 32 23 24 27 29 29 26

 --------------- 2018 --------------- --------------- 2019 --------------- --------------- 2020 ---------------

June 10, 2019

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from May 31, 2019.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or 

expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, 

estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the 

assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as 

of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.