Housing Forecast: September 2017

16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 2016 2017 2018

Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts 1,153 1,158 1,150 1,248 1,238 1,165 1,190 1,230 1,270 1,290 1,310 1,330 1,174 1,206 1,300

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 787 756 761 834 839 826 845 850 900 940 960 980 782 840 945

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 9.4% 7.5% 12.5%

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 367 401 389 414 399 339 345 380 370 350 350 350 392 366 355

New Single-Family Home Sales 526 562 588 568 617 613 621 642 662 678 690 704 561 623 684

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 12.0% 11.1% 9.7%

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops) 5,357 5,477 5,380 5,547 5,620 5,563 5,558 5,592 5,595 5,627 5,676 5,777 5,450 5,583 5,669

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 3.8% 2.4% 1.5%

Total Home Sales (New + Existing) 5,883 6,038 5,968 6,115 6,237 6,176 6,179 6,234 6,256 6,305 6,366 6,481 6,011 6,207 6,352

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 4.5% 3.3% 2.3%

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New 305 313 307 318 312 315 324 335 329 331 341 351 311 322 338

Median Total Existing 216 239 239 234 231 254 253 247 243 267 266 258 232 246 258

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (% Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 6.0% 5.9% 6.3% 6.3% 6.4% 6.6% 6.1% 5.8% 5.4% 5.2% 5.3% 4.7% 6.3% 5.8% 4.7%

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.6 4.0 4.0

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.9 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 2.9 3.2 3.3

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations 373 505 599 574 393 454 456 377 322 433 433 390 2,052 1,679 1,578

 Purchase 189 291 311 270 204 306 306 263 209 331 333 290 1,061 1,078 1,163

 Refinance 184 215 288 304 189 148 151 113 113 102 101 100 991 601 415

Refinance Share (%) 49% 42% 48% 53% 48% 33% 33% 30% 35% 23% 23% 26% 48% 36% 26%

September 11, 2017

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from August 31 2017.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating 

Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend 

on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided 

in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. 

The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views 

of Fannie Mae or its management.

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