Human Factors (HF) REDAC Subcommittee  Review

By: Gary Pokodner, Program Manager, Weather Technology in the Cockpit (WTIC)		

Date: February 25, 2015	

Weather Technology in the Cockpit (WTIC)

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Weather Technology in the Cockpit (WTIC) - Program Description
        - Research projects to develop, verify, and validate requirements for incorporation into Minimum Weather Service (MinWxSvc) standards

FAR Part 121, OPERATING REQUIREMENTS: DOMESTIC, FLAG, AND SUPPLEMENTAL OPERATIONS (i.e. commercial operations)

FAR Part 135, OPERATING REQUIREMENTS: COMMUTER AND ON DEMAND OPERATIONS AND RULES GOVERNING PERSONS ON BOARD SUCH AIRCRAFT (i.e. commuter, on demand, and air taxi operations)

FAR Part 91, GENERAL OPERATING AND FLIGHT RULES (includes General Aviation operations)
        - The MinWxSvc is defined as: 

Minimum cockpit meteorological  (MET) information

Minimum performance standards (e.g. accuracy) of the MET information 

Minimum information rendering standards

Enhanced weather training

Minimum cockpit technology capability recommendations

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WTIC Program Overview

Purpose
        - Identify causal factors for weather-related General Aviation (GA) safety risks/hazards
        - Identify causal factors for Part 121/135 adverse weather safety risks/hazards and NAS operational inefficiencies (current and NextGen)
        - Recommend MinWxSvcs to resolve/reduce identified safety risks and NAS inefficiencies 
        - Recommend enhancements to pilot MET-training to resolve training shortfalls 

Budget

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| FY14(funded) | FY15(funded) | FY16(request) | FY17(request) |
|--------------|--------------|---------------|---------------|
| $3.4M        | $3.1M        | $3.3M         | $3.3M         |

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DRAFT TEMPLATE

WTIC Program Overview

Benefits 
        - Enhanced safety by resolving/reducing adverse-weather safety risks before they result in an accident/incident
        - Enhanced NAS efficiency and increased capacity resulting from consistent and predictable pilot adverse weather decision making due to established cockpit minimum weather service(s)
        - Reduced emissions due to enhanced efficiency
        - Reduction in flight delays
        - Enhanced safety resulting from the resolution of pilot MET-training shortfalls

Tracking
        - Developing spreadsheet to track gaps, operational shortfalls, and MinWxSvc recommendations 

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DRAFT TEMPLATE

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WTIC Minimum Weather ServiceGap Tracking Worksheet (excerpt)

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Open Human Factors Committee Recommendations and Action Items
        - Recommendation - The research plan needs to articulate the pilot decisions that they are aiming to support, and then analytically define how WTIC-provided information and portrayal of that information is expected to improve pilot decision making. Then, predict how information portrayal may support or degrade these specific decisions based on the literature and use Human-In-The-Loop (HITL) to validate the analysis and predictions. Likewise, examine other ways of improving pilot decision making about weather, independent of the quality of the information, such as training for pilots about decision making about weather accounting for likely behaviors such as decision biases. 

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Open Human Factors Committee Recommendations and Action Items
        - FAA Response - The FAA concurs with the Human Factors Subcommittee recommendation to investigate pilot decision making in various adverse weather scenarios to identify the minimum meteorological (MET) information and rendering techniques in the cockpit that are needed to enhance pilot decision making relative to adverse weather. We also concur that HITLs and literature reviews should be used to evaluate the impacts of various rendering and portrayal methods on pilot use of the MET information. The FAA also agrees that training aspects relative to pilot decision making need to be researched. The WTIC program will include details about ongoing and planned research that supports these recommendations in updates to the REDAC the fall of 2014.

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Open Human Factors Committee Recommendations and Action Items
        - WTIC-Directed Research Actions
        - PEGASAS performed and documented extensive literature review on pilot decision making relative to adverse weather.  Review included:
        - Aeronautical Decision-Making (ADM)
        - Cognitive Basis involved decision-making(e.g. use of heuristics)
        - Pilot motivational factors  (e.g. passenger pressure)
        - PEGASAS to perform HITL to evaluate the impacts of providing weather latency training on pilot decision making
        - Also assessing feasibility of trainers having adjustable weather latency to conduct training (collaboration with trainer manufacturer Frasca)
        - Gaps to be resolved via MinWxSvc training inputs and recommendations for trainer capabilities

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Open Human Factors Committee Recommendations and Action Items
        - WTIC-Directed Research Actions
        - Conduct HITLs to assess the impact of probabilistic information on pilot decision making (literature review results were presented in September 2014 charts)
        - Do probabilistic forecasts lead to more safe decisions
        - Does the addition of flight path risk display lead to more safe decisions
        - Does display configuration impact the accuracy of pilot decisions
        - PEGASAS Project 4 completed Goal Directed Task Analysis for Day of, Flight Line, and En Route scenarios for obtaining updated weather
        - Embry Riddle Aeronautical University to provide online NextRad training module for posting on FAA site and 100 new MET test questions for Flight Standards to incorporate in pilot exams and practice questions

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FY17 - WTIC GA MinWxSvc 

Outputs

Outcome and Implementation

Research Requirement

FY17 Planned Expenditures
        - FAA goal is to lower the GA accident/incident rate
        - Research Question: What gaps in MET information in GA cockpits and shortfalls in GA pilot MET training are safety risks?
        - Requirement is to define a minimum weather service for GA cockpits to resolve MET information gaps identified as safety risks, and to resolve shortfalls in pilot weather training and test questions
        - Sponsors/Collaborations: AFS, AIR, AVS, NextGen, GA JSC, NTSB, AOPA 
        - Outcome Supported: FAA goal is to reduce the overall GA accident and incident rate by resolving safety risks before they become causal factors in GA accidents
        - Develop recommendations for a GA minimum weather service that resolve MET information in the cockpit gaps and pilot MET training shortfalls that have been identified as safety risks
        - Benefits Resulting : More effective and consistent adverse weather decision making by GA pilots enhances GA safety and the defined minimum weather service resolves MET information gaps identified as safety hazards
        - Training modules and additional test questions
        - Cockpit weather alert rendering recommendations
        - Identification of unique safety risks for special GA operations (HEMS, Alaska, etc)
        - Metric to assess industry implementation of MinWxSvc recommendations
        - Demonstration of initial recommendations for using cloud computing and crowd sourcing to enhance GA cockpit MET information
        - Service analyses as necessary
        - Approximately $1.4M 

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FY17 - WTIC Part 121/135 MinWxSvc 

Outcome and Implementation

Outputs

Research Requirement

FY17 Planned Expenditures
        - FAA goals to enhance NAS efficiency, safety, and capacity, and to reduce greenhouse emissions
        - Research Question: What gaps in MET information in the cockpit are safety risks or causal factors in reducing NAS efficiency or capacity?
        - Requirement is to identify and resolve operational inefficiencies (current and NextGen)and safety risks attributable to MET information in the cockpit gaps
        - Sponsors/Collaborations : AFS, AVS, NextGen 
        - Outcome supported: FAA goal to increase NAS operational efficiency and capacity in current and NextGen operations, and to enhance overall safety
        - Develop recommendations for a Part 121/135 MinWxSrc that resolves MET information in the cockpit gaps
        - Benefits resulting: Resolution of MET information in the cockpit gaps contributes to enhanced NAS efficiency and capacity, and resolves safety risks attributable to the information gaps
        - Approximately $2.4M 
        - MinWxSvc rendering recommendations for validated MET information content
        - Assessment of the role of cockpit technology advancements in enhancing NAS efficiency
        - Updated WTIC ConOps for far-term concepts
        - Recommendations for implementing cloud computing and crowd sourcing to enhance cockpit MET information
        - Demonstrated integration of Nav and flight (inc Wx)) information into pilot decision support tools 
        - Demonstrated benefits of data link services providing enhanced winds to FMS and ATC systems
        - Verified recommendations for MinWxSvc standards for oceanic and non-controlled airspace
        - RTCA SC-206 development of MOPS for EDR and MASPS for AI and MET services

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Recent Accomplishments 
        - WTIC Phase 3 Wind Study delivered to RTCA SC206
        - Committee quotes included– “Very informative...wealth of information”, and, “Extremely well done...very useful”.  Committee complimented team for providing  a tool to develop wind requirements for NextGen applications.
        - Completed Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR)/Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) Uplink flight demonstration and reports
        - Delta Airlines already implementing EDR based on results
        - Draft technical transfer package completed
        - Benefits Assessment showed a substantial reduction in altitude changes with respect to turbulence, pilots reported highly influenced by EDR/GTG viewer, 53% reduction in radio calls, NAS simulation shows annual cost savings of approximately $414M with 50% sector use

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Recent Accomplishment Highlights 
        - Mobile MET Cognitive Walk-through completed
        - Mobile Application highly rated and well received
        - Application updated for HITL based on feedback
        - Joint HITL on Mobile MET and MET rendering to begin March 1 
        - Assess mobile MET impact on pilot decision making
        - Assess pilot decision making impacts based on previously identified MET information rendering issue (change blindness)

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Recent Accomplishment Highlights 
        - Sample Training Module and Test Questions Provided to AFS
        - Format compatible for FAA Training Site
        - WTIC to provided AFS 100 new test questions
        - 3 of 4 PEGASAS projects delivered Phase 1 final reports 
        - Identified numerous gaps, reports being reviewed
        - Details extensive literature reviews
        - Alerting Project scheduled to deliver final report in early March

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Recent Accomplishment Highlights 
        - Kicked off project to research operational shortfalls in non-controlled airspace
        - Selected scenarios for Part 121 weather alert HITLs
        - Planning and preparations ongoing for HITLs to assess impacts of probabilistic information on pilot decision making and confidence
        - Completed initial shakedown for Tactical Turbulence Detection HITL

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