14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 2014 2015 2016

Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts 934 984 1,029 1,055 978 1,158 1,147 1,150 1,175 1,205 1,236 1,281 1,003 1,108 1,224

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 610 624 654 700 643 706 745 750 780 810 836 881 648 711 827

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 4.9% 9.8% 16.3%

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 324 360 375 356 335 451 402 400 395 395 400 400 355 397 398

New Single-Family Home Sales 424 425 439 472 517 496 530 525 536 557 561 593 437 517 562

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 1.9% 18.3% 8.7%

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops) 4,677 4,887 5,057 5,060 4,973 5,300 5,393 5,422 5,355 5,406 5,438 5,511 4,940 5,272 5,427

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year -2.9% 6.7% 2.9%

Total Home Sales (New + Existing) 5,101 5,312 5,496 5,532 5,490 5,796 5,923 5,947 5,891 5,963 5,999 6,104 5,377 5,789 5,989

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year -2.6% 7.7% 3.5%

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New 274 282 278 301 293 285 291 316 306 296 302 331 283 296 309

Median Total Existing 191 212 216 208 203 228 226 217 213 237 236 228 208 219 228

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 6.8% 5.5% 4.8% 5.0% 5.3% 5.4% 4.9% 4.7% 4.6% 3.9% 4.2% 4.9% 5.0% 4.7% 4.9%

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 3.8 4.0

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.29 3.0 2.9 3.2

1-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.92 2.4 2.5 2.8

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations 251 348 374 327 384 499 419 394 298 383 380 347 1,301 1,697 1,408

 Purchase 133 223 229 198 156 260 256 246 172 265 271 247 783 917 956

 Refinance 119 125 145 129 229 239 164 148 126 118 109 100 518 779 452

Refinance Share (%) 47% 36% 39% 40% 59% 48% 39% 38% 42% 31% 29% 29% 40% 46% 32%

October 12, 2015

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from September 30, 2015.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

 2014 mortgage originations were revised as part of an annual benchmark to Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating 

Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend 

on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided 

in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. 

The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views 

of Fannie Mae or its management.

Housing Forecast: October 2015

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