Housing Forecast: February 2017

16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 2016 2017 2018

Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts 1,151 1,159 1,145 1,216 1,215 1,220 1,240 1,265 1,310 1,330 1,340 1,350 1,166 1,235 1,333

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 790 755 758 830 820 840 860 880 920 940 960 980 781 850 950

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 9.3% 8.8% 11.8%

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 361 405 387 386 395 380 380 385 390 390 380 370 386 385 383

New Single-Family Home Sales 529 565 583 568 552 600 635 649 659 673 688 702 563 609 680

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 12.4% 8.1% 11.7%

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops) 5,300 5,503 5,390 5,570 5,437 5,521 5,544 5,646 5,515 5,569 5,673 5,775 5,452 5,537 5,633

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 3.8% 1.6% 1.7%

Total Home Sales (New + Existing) 5,829 6,068 5,973 6,138 5,989 6,121 6,179 6,295 6,174 6,242 6,360 6,477 6,015 6,146 6,313

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 4.5% 2.2% 2.7%

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New 305 313 307 311 322 331 324 327 337 344 335 338 309 326 338

Median Total Existing 216 239 240 234 228 253 252 245 239 263 261 254 232 245 254

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (% Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 6.1% 5.9% 6.0% 5.7% 5.4% 5.7% 5.3% 5.2% 4.6% 4.1% 3.7% 3.6% 5.7% 5.2% 3.6%

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 3.6 4.2 4.4

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.9 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 2.9 3.4 3.7

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations 359 489 572 521 351 431 418 365 309 418 423 377 1,940 1,565 1,526

 Purchase 189 291 286 248 191 300 304 261 210 323 329 283 1,013 1,056 1,146

 Refinance 170 198 286 273 160 131 114 104 98 95 94 93 927 510 381

Refinance Share (%) 47% 41% 50% 52% 46% 30% 27% 29% 32% 23% 22% 25% 48% 33% 25%

February 10, 2017

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from January 31, 2017.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating 

Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend 

on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided 

in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. 

The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views 

of Fannie Mae or its management.

 --------------- 2016 --------------- --------------- 2017 --------------- --------------- 2018 ---------------