Housing Forecast: November 2021

21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 2020 2021 2022 2023

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,599 1,588 1,566 1,626 1,646 1,613 1,571 1,549 1,530 1,511 1,499 1,502 1,380 1,595 1,595 1,511

 Percent Change: YoY 6.9 15.6 0.0 -5.3

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 1,156 1,107 1,091 1,145 1,189 1,197 1,176 1,153 1,131 1,114 1,102 1,105 991 1,125 1,179 1,113

 Percent Change: YoY 11.6 13.5 4.8 -5.6

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 443 482 475 481 457 416 394 396 399 398 396 397 389 470 416 398

 Percent Change: YoY -3.3 20.9 -11.6 -4.4

 Total Home Sales 7,200 6,571 6,795 6,647 6,576 6,556 6,547 6,484 6,460 6,440 6,416 6,405 6,462 6,804 6,541 6,430

 Percent Change: YoY 7.3 5.3 -3.9 -1.7

 New Single-Family 896 737 738 772 871 915 912 889 872 859 851 853 822 787 897 859

 Percent Change: YoY 20.4 -4.2 13.9 -4.2

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 6,303 5,833 6,057 5,874 5,705 5,641 5,635 5,595 5,588 5,581 5,565 5,552 5,640 6,017 5,644 5,571

 Percent Change: YoY 5.6 6.7 -6.2 -1.3

NSA, Thous. $

 Median New Home Price 365 381 403 420 426 428 441 453 448 446 455 464 335 392 437 453

 Median Existing Home Price 314 351 357 368 366 395 390 397 385 411 402 407 295 347 387 401

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 FHFA Purchase-Only Index 12.9 17.4 18.2 16.6 14.8 11.0 8.8 7.4 5.0 4.4 3.2 2.9 11.1 16.6 7.4 2.9

Percent

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.5

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.1 2.6 2.8 3.1

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 1,238 1,132 1,107 935 699 876 859 826 698 838 813 762 4,374 4,412 3,260 3,111

 Purchase 366 501 517 485 381 557 547 510 398 576 554 513 1,572 1,868 1,995 2,041

 Refinance 871 631 591 450 319 318 312 315 300 262 259 249 2,802 2,543 1,265 1,070

 Refinance Share (Percent) 70 56 53 48 46 36 36 38 43 31 32 33 64 58 39 34

 --------------- 2021 --------------- --------------- 2022 --------------- --------------- 2023 ---------------

November 10, 2021

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from October 29, 2021.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: FHFA Purchase-Only Index and median home price forecasts are updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business 

prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases 

its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any 

particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the 

ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.