Homebuyers, Owners, & Renters
      
      Homebuyers, Owners, and Renters

          
                        Business Partners
                  Single-Family Business

Helping lenders serve homebuyers and homeowners with affordable mortgages
    
          Multifamily Business

Financing for quality, affordable rental housing in every market, every day
    
          Capital Markets

Reducing risk and enhancing housing finance liquidity
          About Us
                toggle
                Who We Are
                                              toggle
                        Awards and Recognition
                                                      Diversity and Inclusion
                                                              toggle
                                Employee Resource Groups
                                                                      Progress With Purpose
                                                      Employee Code of Conduct
                                                      Community Engagement
                                                      History
                                      What We Do
                                              toggle
                        Duty to Serve
                                                              toggle
                                Manufactured Housing
                                                                      Affordable Housing Preservation
                                                                      Rural Housing
                                                                      Research Initiatives
                                                                      Colonias Investment Areas
                                                      Homeownership
                                                              toggle
                                Access to Mortgage Credit
                                                                      Restrictive Covenants
                                                      Innovation
                                                      Mortgage Finance in America
                                                      Financial Performance
                                                      Disaster Resiliency and Relief
                                                      Pilot Transparency
                                      Leadership Team
                                      Corporate Governance
                                              toggle
                        Corporate Governance Guidelines
                                                      Fannie Mae Charter
                                                      Board of Directors
                                                      Committees
                                                      Committee Charters
                                                      Code of Conduct
                                                      Bylaws
                                                      Contacting the Board of Directors
                                                      Housing Reports
                                      Investor Relations
                                              toggle
                        Quarterly and Annual Results
                                                      Annual Reports
                                                      SEC Filings
                                                              toggle
                                All SEC Filings
                                                                      Annual Filings
                                                                      Quarterly Filings
                                                                      Current Reports
                                                                      Section 16 Filings
                                                                      Proxy Filings
                                                      Additional Disclosures
                                                              toggle
                                Monthly Summary
                                                                      Capital Disclosures
                                                      Stock Information
                                                      Current Stock Information
                                                      Contact Information
                                      ESG
                                              toggle
                        Learn about our business
                                                      Environmental
                                                      Social
                                                              toggle
                                Equitable Housing Finance Plan
                                                      Governance
                                                      Sustainable Bonds
                                                              toggle
                                Green Bonds
                                                                      Social Bonds
                                                      Reports & Disclosures
                                                              toggle
                                2021 ESG Report
                                      Research & Insights
                                              toggle
                        Forecast
                                                              toggle
                                Monthly Archive
                                                                      Weekly Archive
                                                      Surveys & Indices
                                                              toggle
                                National Housing Survey
                                                                      Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey
                                                                      Fannie Mae Home Price Index
                                                                      Refinance Application-Level Index
                                                                      Special Topics
                                                      Publications
                                                              toggle
                                Fannie Mae Working Papers
                                                                      Housing Insights
                                                                      Partner Research
                                                                      Publications Archive
                                                      Perspectives
                                                              toggle
                                Archive - 2020
                                                                      Archive - 2021
                                                                      Archive - 2022
                                                                      Archive - 2023
                                      Newsroom
                                              toggle
                        News
                                                      Media Resources
          
                        Careers
                toggle
                Our Teams
                                              toggle
                        Corporate Teams
                                                      Data & Analytics
                                                      Digital & Technology
                                                      Mortgage & Customer Solutions
                                                      Risk Management
                                      Life at Fannie Mae
                                      Diversity & Inclusion
                                      Benefits & Professional Development
                                      Campus
          
                        Contact Us
                      
            Google Translate Disclaimer
            The Google Translate feature is a third-party service that is available for informational purposes only. Fannie Mae is unable to guarantee the accuracy of any translation resulting from the tool and is not responsible for any event or damage that occurs as a result of using the translations generated by the Google Translate feature.
            OK
  Translate
        Translation Disclaimer
          Chinese, Traditional
            English
            Filipino
            Korean
            Spanish
            Vietnamese
 FM Site Nav
  

        

Homepage
                    
      Fannie Mae logo
    Toggle navigation
      Rent
                
                All Renter Resources
                                      The Rental Process
                                      Make Your Rent Count
                                      Credit Basics
                      
            Buy
                
                All Homebuyer Resources
                                      7 Steps to Homeownership
                                      HomeView Homeownership Education Course
                      
            Own
                
                All Homeowner Resources
                                      Make the Most of Your Home
                                      Refinancing Your Mortgage
                                      When It’s Time to Sell
                      
            Get Relief
                  Manage Financial Uncertainty

All Resources to Manage Financial Uncertainty

Help for Homeowners

Help for Renters

Protect Yourself from Fraud
    
          Recover from a Disaster

All Resources for Recovering from a Disaster

Recovery Assistance for Homeowners

Recovery Assistance for Renters

Protect Yourself from Fraud
                      
            Calculators & Tools
                
                All Calculators & Tools
                                      Tools for Renters
                                      Tools for Homebuyers
                                      Tools for Homeowners
                                      HomeView® Homeownership Education Course
                                      Glossary
                                      Mobile AppToggle search
 Skip to main content
          
    
    Home
                        Newsroom
                        Fannie Mae News
                        U.S. Economy Poised for Substantial Rebound Following Historic Second Quarter Contraction
    Press Release
U.S. Economy Poised for Substantial Rebound Following Historic Second Quarter Contraction
August 17, 2020
ESR Group Upgrades Housing Forecast as Mortgage Rates Move Lower
WASHINGTON, DC
 -
            
            The U.S. economy contracted in the second quarter by 32.9 percent annualized – the largest such decline since demobilization efforts following World War II – but the strong rate of economic recovery observed in May and June sets up the third quarter for a substantial rebound, according to the latest commentary from the Fannie Mae (FNMA/OTCQB) Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group. Third quarter GDP growth is now forecast to come in at 27.2 percent annualized. Further, the now-falling coronavirus case rate, supportive fiscal and monetary policy, and an elevated level of household savings supportive of future consumer spending are all expected to drive further recovery through the remainder of the year. While substantial downside risks remain, including the possible worsening of the coronavirus crisis leading to more stringent shutdown and social distancing measures, for full-year 2020 the ESR Group now expects real GDP to contract only 3.1 percent compared to the previously forecast 4.2 percent. This improvement reflects in part the expectation that future localized or regional flare-ups of the coronavirus (of a similar magnitude observed thus far) are unlikely to lead to a further contraction in economic output but rather a temporary pause in the rate of growth.

Citing the ongoing strength of the housing sector amid sustained increases in purchase demand, the ESR Group revised upward its expectations for home sales, as well as its estimate of total mortgage market originations, in 2020 and 2021. The ESR Group now expects total origination volume to hit $3.4 trillion in 2020,the highest annual origination volume since 2003, when total volume was $3.7 trillion.

“The economy’s climb back from the sudden and severe setback of the second quarter is fully underway, but we believe the future pace will be driven largely by the path of the novel coronavirus and how the public responds to coronavirus-related information,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Consumers have savings to draw on, but some are holding that savings in reserve until the economy and labor markets improve. Others are spending on a discretionary basis as they await evidence that the virus has receded sustainably. Our base scenario assumes that Congress will agree upon additional fiscal stimulus in support of consumers and businesses, and that the economy will only shrink 3.1 percent in 2020 relative to 2019, measured on a fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter basis.”

“We believe housing will continue to be a sector with relative strength amid the larger downturn, as long-running supply constraints exacerbate demographic and interest rate demand-side factors that are supporting home price growth,” Duncan continued. “The recently observed increase in purchase demand is largely due to pent-up demand as buyers are acting now after delaying purchases in the spring. We are, however, seeing some early signs of shifting buyer preference to locate to lower density areas, potentially driving some additional purchase activity. Here, our baseline forecast sees purchase volumes of $1.3 trillion in 2020.”

Visit the Economic & Strategic Research site at fanniemae.com to read the full August 2020 Economic Outlook, including the Economic Developments Commentary, Economic Forecast, Housing Forecast, and Multifamily Market Commentary. To receive e-mail updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group, please click here.
**About Fannie Mae**
Fannie Mae helps make the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and affordable rental housing possible for millions of Americans. We partner with lenders to create housing opportunities for families across the country. We are driving positive changes in housing finance to make the home buying process easier, while reducing costs and risk. To learn more, visit:fanniemae.com | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn | Instagram | YouTube | Blog

**Media Contact**Matthew Classick
202-752-3662

**Fannie Mae Newsroom**https://www.fanniemae.com/news

**Photo of Fannie Mae**https://www.fanniemae.com/resources/img/about-fm/fm-building.tif

**Fannie Mae Resource Center**
1-800-2FANNIE

*Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views, including assumptions about the duration and magnitude of shutdowns and social distancing, could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.*
TOPICS
  
Fannie Mae Corporate
          Research and Insights
  
  
      Twitter
              Facebook
              Linkedin
              Email
Newsroom
                                                              News
                                    Media Resources

Our Company
    About Us
      Contact Us
      Careers
      Investor Relations
      Newsroom
      Research & Insights
      ESG
  Business Partners
    Single-Family Business
      Multifamily Business
      Capital Markets
	      Suppliers
      Developer Portal
  Homebuyers, Owners, & Renters
    Educational Resources
      Credit Basics
      HomeView Homeownership Education Course
      HomePath - Search for Homes
      Make Your Rent CountCalculators & Tools
      All Calculators and Tools      Glossary of Key Terms
      Mortgage Calculator
      Down Payment Assistance Search Tool
      Mobile AppLet Us Help You
      Contact a Housing Counselor
      Manage Financial Uncertainty
      Recover from a Disaster
    
    
  

      
Social media
  

        
            Follow us
          Follow us
          Facebook
          Twitter
          LinkedIn
          Instagram
    Footer
  

        
            Legal
          Privacy
          Digital Accessibility
                Cookie Preferences
            © 2024 Fannie Mae