Housing Forecast: January 2024

23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.4 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.4 2022 2023 2024 2025

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,385 1,450 1,371 1,420 1,377 1,371 1,371 1,375 1,392 1,409 1,422 1,433 1,553 1,406 1,374 1,413

 Percent Change: YoY -3.0 -9.4 -2.3 2.9

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 834 930 967 1,011 973 981 996 1,005 1,021 1,039 1,057 1,069 1,005 935 989 1,046

 Percent Change: YoY -10.8 -6.9 5.7 5.8

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 552 520 403 409 404 390 375 370 371 370 364 363 547 471 385 367

 Percent Change: YoY 15.5 -14.0 -18.3 -4.5

 Total Home Sales 4,965 4,941 4,714 4,509 4,678 4,875 5,082 5,223 5,378 5,518 5,661 5,808 5,671 4,785 4,964 5,591

 Percent Change: YoY -17.7 -15.6 3.7 12.6

 New Single-Family 638 691 694 665 675 712 758 759 762 765 775 783 641 674 726 771

 Percent Change: YoY -16.9 5.2 7.7 6.2

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 4,327 4,250 4,020 3,844 4,003 4,163 4,324 4,464 4,616 4,753 4,886 5,025 5,030 4,111 4,238 4,820

 Percent Change: YoY -17.8 -18.3 3.1 13.7

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 Fannie Mae HPI 4.3 2.6 5.1 7.1 7.2 6.0 4.5 3.2 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 7.9 7.1 3.2 0.3

Percent: Quarterly Avg, Annual Avg

 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 6.4 6.5 7.0 7.3 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.3 6.8 6.1 5.6

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 339 429 402 328 329 516 577 555 505 660 663 613 2,374 1,499 1,977 2,441

 Purchase 280 358 337 277 266 405 422 394 308 465 475 442 1,644 1,252 1,487 1,689

 Refinance 59 71 65 51 63 111 156 160 197 195 188 171 730 246 490 752

 Refinance Share (Percent) 18 17 16 15 19 21 27 29 39 30 28 28 31 16 25 31

January 10, 2024

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from December 29, 2023; all other forecasts are based on the date above.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: The Fannie Mae HPI forecast is updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Freddie Mac. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business 

prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases 

its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any 

particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the 

ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management. 

 --------------- 2023 --------------- --------------- 2024 --------------- --------------- 2025 ---------------

#