Housing Forecast: January 2023

22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.4 2021 2022 2023 2024

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,720 1,647 1,450 1,405 1,263 1,138 1,088 1,071 1,094 1,128 1,189 1,246 1,601 1,556 1,140 1,164

 Percent Change: YoY 16.0 -2.8 -26.7 2.1

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 1,187 1,086 905 830 756 728 745 766 788 823 866 901 1,127 1,002 749 844

 Percent Change: YoY 13.8 -11.1 -25.3 12.8

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 533 561 545 576 506 410 343 305 306 305 324 345 474 553 391 320

 Percent Change: YoY 21.8 16.8 -29.3 -18.2

 Total Home Sales 6,833 5,982 5,353 4,792 4,483 4,440 4,519 4,635 4,808 4,984 5,201 5,391 6,891 5,740 4,519 5,096

 Percent Change: YoY 6.6 -16.7 -21.3 12.8

 New Single-Family 776 609 583 642 591 572 556 559 574 600 631 657 771 653 570 615

 Percent Change: YoY -6.2 -15.4 -12.7 8.0

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 6,057 5,373 4,770 4,150 3,892 3,868 3,963 4,076 4,234 4,385 4,571 4,735 6,120 5,088 3,950 4,481

 Percent Change: YoY 8.5 -16.9 -22.4 13.4

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 Fannie Mae HPI 20.0 19.1 13.8 8.4 2.0 -3.1 -4.2 -4.2 -3.7 -3.4 -2.6 -2.3 18.9 8.4 -4.2 -2.3

Percent: Quarterly Avg, Annual Avg

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.8 5.2 5.6 6.7 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.5 3.0 5.3 6.3 5.7

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 745 676 530 392 315 435 450 435 378 534 545 511 4,570 2,344 1,635 1,967

 Purchase 394 506 434 327 242 349 355 334 257 392 398 376 1,900 1,660 1,279 1,422

 Refinance 351 170 97 66 73 85 96 101 121 142 147 135 2,670 683 356 545

 Refinance Share (Percent) 47 25 18 17 23 20 21 23 32 27 27 26 58 29 22 28

January 10, 2023

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from December 30, 2022; all other forecasts are based on the date above.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: The Fannie Mae HPI forecast is updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

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Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected 

results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, 

forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the 

information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and 

do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management. 

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