NAS Operations PPT

Presented by: John Marksteiner

Date: August 27-28, 2013

REDAC NAS Ops Fall 2013 Review

2

PPT Portfolio Overview

NAS Ops PPT for the FY2015 FAA budget process includes the following areas:

Status of REDAC Recommendations (Fall 2012)

NextGen – Operations Concept Validation – Validation Modeling

Note: ATDP – Operations Concept Validation and Infrastructure Evolution – Transitioning to ATO (AJV-7) starting in FY13

2

Status of REDAC Recommendations Fall 2012 Review (4) 

REDAC Recommendation: 

FAA should enable and support a longer-term activity in developing a understandable plan or roadmap for these activities, specifically supported by facilities and equipment (F&E) budget line, to facilitate shortfall areas and define needed research areas.

FAA Response: 

Develop multi-year (5 year) Research Plan

Plan developed to be updated in FY14

Used as Model in rest of ANG-C

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2.  REDAC Recommendation:

More intense cross-cutting human factors research and development efforts are necessary to ensure that the linkages among different ConOps that have been developed are carefully defined and addressed in order to ensure effective integration.  All nodes of collaboration, including Airline Operations Centers.

FAA Response: 

The following research proposals were included in the Multiyear plan to address this recommendation:

NextGen Trajectory Negotiation (NTN) (approved)

Special Activities Airspace (SAA) (not approved)

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Integration into the NAS (approved)

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Status of REDAC Recommendations Fall 2012 Review (cont) 

Status of REDAC Recommendations Fall 2012 Review (cont) 

3.  REDAC Recommendation: 

FAA research activities (e.g., ConOps development, validation, etc.) involving NextGen equipage need to explore the following:

Critical mass thresholds for delivery of benefits to equipped users

Potential automation mitigations to enable controllers to handle mixed capabilities

Trade space of performance requirements, benefits, costs, aircraft equipage levels, and ground capabilities with respect to overall system performance gains, system benefits, and net benefits to equipped operators

Performance and equipage levels in different timeframes and operational environments (2018 vs. the 2025 timeframe and later)

Methods to ensure that aircraft with NextGen equipage gain differential benefits over non-equipped aircraft 

FAA Response: 

The following research proposals were included in the multiyear plan to address this recommendation

Performance Based Navigation (PBN) ConOps (not approved)

Performance Based Navigation Flexible Route System (not approved)

Level 2 Data Comm ConOps (not approved) 

Mixed Equipage Research for Operational Concepts Validation (not approved)

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Status of REDAC Recommendations Fall 2012 Review (cont) 

REDAC Recommendation: 

The FAA research supporting validation of a TBO concept of operations should include the following activities:  Differentiation of midterm and post midterm ops and benefits; integrate TFM, CDM with Data Comm regarding reroutes;  address mixed capability ops; quantify marginal benefits of differing performance requirements and capabilities

FAA Response: 

The following research proposals were included in the Multiyear plan to address this recommendation:

Trajectory Operations (TOps) Concept of Operations (approved)

Complex Clearances (approved)

Vertical Ascent and Decent Rate (VADR) (approved)

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PPT Financial Summary 
|                                      | FY 12 Enacted |           | FY 13 Enacted |           | FY 14 Request |           |
|--------------------------------------|---------------|-----------|---------------|-----------|---------------|-----------|
| Program Title                        | In-House      | Contracts | In-House      | Contracts | In-House      | Contracts |
| Base Program (RE&D)              |               |           |               |           |               |           |
| Base Program (RE&D)              |               |           |               |           |               |           |
| Base Program (F&E)               |               |           |               |           |               |           |
| NextGen Program (F&E)            |               |           |               |           |               |           |
| 1A07C/NextGen Ops Concept Validation |               | 8,122,000 |               | 3,873,000 |               | 5,000,000 |
| F&E Subtotal                     |               | 8,122,000 |               | 3,873,000 |               | 5,000,000 |
| PPT Total                            |               | 8,122,000 |               | 3,873,000 |               | 5,000,000 |

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PPT 5-Year Financial Plan
| Program                              | Out-Year Contract Dollars (For Planning Purposes Only) |           |           |           |           |
|--------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
|                                      | FY 2014                                                | FY 2015   | FY 2016   | FY 2017   | FY 2018   |
| Base Program (RE&D)              |                                                        |           |           |           |           |
| NextGen Program (RE&D)           |                                                        |           |           |           |           |
| RE&D Subtotal                    |                                                        |           |           |           |           |
| Base Program (F&E)               |                                                        |           |           |           |           |
| NextGen  Program (F&E)           |                                                        |           |           |           |           |
| 1A07C/NextGen Ops Concept Validation | 5,000,000                                              | 4,500,000 | 4,900,000 | 5,000,000 | 6,000,000 |
| F&E Subtotal                     | 5,000,000                                              | 4,500,000 | 4,900,000 | 5,000,000 | 6,000,000 |
| PPT Total                            | 5,000,000                                              | 4,500,000 | 4,900,000 | 5,000,000 | 6,000,000 |

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Provide a five-year projection of contract spending for FY 2012 through FY 2016. These figures will be provided by the RST Financial Manager, and are to be considered only as a target amount.  The projected budget levels should be labeled “For Planning Purposes Only” and will only include contract dollars.

Confirm ATDP numbers

Include SNT and Ops Concept Validation; no numbers for 1a12a

FY14 Plans – Operations Concept Validation / Modeling (OCVM)

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Scenario Development (Oct 2013)

Analyze improved departure predictability on demand predictions (EDPT) (Nov 2013)

Optimized Route Coordinator (ORC) Functional Research Assessment (Dec 2013)

Dynamic Network Analysis (DNA) Model (Dec 2013)

Concept Development for Datalink of Complex PBN Clearances in Support of 4D TBO (PBN) (April 2014) – Project has been refocused without change in scope to develop the Dynamic RNP concept in support of AJV-7 and RTCA SC-214 (TBD)

Statistical Methods for Departure Predictability (SMDP) BBN Model (Jan 2014)

TMI Attribute Standardization for Tracking and Simulation (TAS) (June 2014)

NextGen Trajectory Negotiation (NTN) Concept Development  (Dec 2013)

Enhanced Services at Non-towered Airports (ESNA) Concept Validation – project refocused to support SBS Program’s Blended Airspace project (FY14 Activities TBD)

Space Vehicle Operations (SVO) Concept Development/Initial Validation (Oct 2014)

9

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FY15 Planned Activities – OCVM

Specific Ops Concept Validation Modeling project outcomes for FY15 include:

Optimized Route Coordinator (ORC): Develop procedures and automation ability to generate optimal airspace, routing configuration, and other traffic management initiatives for consideration. 

NextGen Trajectory Negotiation (NTN): Provide the methodology for performing real-time trajectory negotiation for trial planning, coordinating, issuing, and accepting or rejecting trajectory changes (reroutes) in real time 

Dynamic Network Analysis (DNA): Develop a capability to integrate data from a NAS simulation platform with the DNA model, allowing robust, integrated analysis of NAS traffic flows and the underlying trajectory negotiation activities, supporting NTN, TBO, and CATM

Remote Operations at Non-Towered Airports (RONA): Define and validate a concept to provide remote operations at non-towered airports in support of Blended Airspace Project

Space Vehicle Operations (SVO): Analyze space vehicle operations to include launch patterns, trajectory characteristics, safety data, locations, expected launch quantities, and impact to airborne and ground aircraft to mature ConOps

Complex Clearances (Dynamic RNP) using Data Communications: Concept validation

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS): Functional Analysis / Operational requirements development based on scenarios

Vertical Conformance Verification (VCV was VADR): Provides ATC with aircraft climb and descent rate for conformance monitoring.

TMI Attribute Standardization for Tracking and Simulation (TAS): Develop TMI System Model

10

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Emerging FY16 Focal Areas

NextGen Ops Concept Validation – Validation Modeling

Develop updates for end-to-end and lower level ConOps

Validate high priority 2nd and 3rd level operational concepts, possible areas of research include:

Optimized Route Coordinator (ORC)

Space Vehicle Operations (SVO)

Remote Operations at Non-Towered Airports (RONA) Research (Blended Airspace)

Complex PBN Clearances (PBN) / Dynamic RNP

Derive inputs for future modeling of the NextGen benefits for 2025 timeframe

Modeling and simulation activities to support risk reduction activities

Implementation of operational capabilities including those associated with ATC decision support tools procedures

Development of concept level requirements will incrementally be handed off to implementation organizations

Requirements for future Data Comm applications, Collaborative traffic management, and SVO may be generated

11

FY13 Projects

Conflict Resolution Advisories (CRA)

Integrated Arrival/Departure Control Services (IADCS)	

Optimized Route Coordinator (ORC)

Trajectory Operations (TOps) ConUse

NextGen Trajectory Negotiation (NTN)

Dynamic Network Analysis (DNA)

Enhanced Departure Predictability for TFM (EDPT)

Statistical Methods for Departure Predictability (SMDP)

TMI Attribute Standardization for Tracking and Simulation (TAS)

Space Vehicle Operations (SVO)

Datalink of Complex PBN Clearances in Support of 4D TBO (PBN)

Remote Operations at Non-Towered Airports (RONA) Research 

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Integration into the NAS

Vertical Conformance Verification (VCV)

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Partnerships:

MITRE CAASD

ANG-E25 (Human Factors Branch)

Volpe

NASA Ames

Funding:

Conflict Resolution Advisories (CRA)

Description: 

Empowered by enabling technologies - NAS automation (ERAM) upgraded to provide conflict resolution advisories with voice and data in a mixed equipage environment

Later to be transmitted solely via data in certain airspace

More full intent entry and improved trajectory maintenance benefitting all TBO operations

Improved ERAM Conflict Probe (reduces missed and false alerts)

Accomplishments / Plans:

Briefed ATO on deployment options (May 2013)

Analyze data and publish results from FY12 HITL experiments at WJHTC HF Lab (Jun 2013)

Internally packaging project deliverables and archiving for future use. (Sep 2013)
| FY11       | FY12 | FY13 | FY14 | FY15 |
|------------|------|------|------|------|
| $1,800,000 | $0   | $0   | $0   | $0   |

Research activities completed as of June 2013; project on hold until funding resumes in 2017

13

Chu Yao

13

Partnerships:

ANG-E25			NATCA

Funding:

Accomplishments / Plans:

Integrated Arrival / Departure Control Services (IADCS)

Description: 

To improve operational efficiencies in major metropolitan areas by:

Using expanded 3-mile separation in ARR/DEP airspace

Using visual separation standards above 18K

Using dynamic airspace reconfiguration of bi-directional ARR/DEP routes

Integrating all ARR/DEP airspace into one control service / one facility

Current Activities focus on what can be done with airspace changes alone

Selected Atlanta area facilities (A80 and ZTL) as test model (Nov 2011)

Cognitive Walkthrough (Feb 2012)

Validated IADCS alternatives using fast-time simulations (Nov-Dec 2012) 

Human-in-the-loop simulation (Aug-Sep 2013)
| FY11 | FY12 | FY13 | FY14 | FY15 |
|------|------|------|------|------|
| $0   | $0   | $0   | $0   | $0   |

Project is supported with funding previous to FY11

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Phil Bassett

14

Partnerships:

MITRE

Funding:

Accomplishments / Plans:

Optimized Route Coordinator (ORC)

Description: 

Additional IADCS and PBN route options/playbooks make optimal route selection and coordination more complicated

ORC will research tools and procedures needed to assist ATM with assessment, coordination, and implementation of these new options in order to optimize the benefits

Preliminary ORC Functional Analysis (Oct 2012)

Cognitive walkthrough identified specific traffic management issues, and gathered input from the facilities (Nov 2012)

Optimized Route Capability Functional Research Assessment Report (Dec 2013)
| FY11       | FY12     | FY13       | FY14 | FY15 |
|------------|----------|------------|------|------|
| $1,550,000 | $510,152 | $1,000,000 | *    | *    |

* Proposed follow-on funding identified in Research Plan

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Phil Bassett

15

Partnerships:

ATO

AVS

Funding:

Accomplishments / Plans:

Trajectory Operations (TOps) ConUse

Description: 

Support AVS/RTCA/ANG/ATO in defining an overall TOps Concept and requirements for NextGen avionics automation and collaborative capabilities

Ensure domain specific concepts work end-to-end

Identify concepts and technologies within the FAA that may enable NextGen trajectory operations in the mid-term 

Identify shortfalls in concepts and technologies for the mid-term

TOps ConOps information mapping, FAA and RTCA version (Oct 2012)

TOps ConOps document is in the process of being completed (Jun 2013)
| FY11 | FY12     | FY13 | FY14 | FY15 |
|------|----------|------|------|------|
| $0   | $350,000 | $0   | $0   | $0   |

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Marc Buntin

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Partnerships:

NASA Ames Research Center

ATO System Operations

Carnegie-Mellon University 

Funding:

Accomplishments / Plans:

Conducted NTN Cognitive Walkthrough (Sep 2012) 

Developed NTN Cognitive Walkthrough Final Report (Dec 2012)

NTN Cognitive Walkthrough #2 (Nov 2013)

NTN Concept of Operations (Dec 2013)

NextGen Trajectory Negotiation (NTN) 

Description: 

NTN will provide the methodology for performing real-time trajectory negotiation for trial planning, coordinating, issuing, and accepting or rejecting trajectory changes (reroutes) in real –time

Existing trajectory negotiation tools will be modified or developed as appropriate, utilizing defined research activities, to implement the NTN concept
| FY11 | FY12     | FY13     | FY14 | FY15 |
|------|----------|----------|------|------|
| $0   | $450,000 | $500,000 | *    | *    |

* Proposed follow-on funding identified in Research Plan

17

Kevin Hatton

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Partnerships:

Carnegie-Mellon University 

Funding:

Accomplishments / Plans:

Dynamic Network Analysis (DNA) Model (Dec 2013)

Enhance Dynamic Network Analysis (DNA) Model (Sep 2014)

Dynamic Network Analysis (DNA)

Description: 

This research will result in refinement of the DNA model of the NAS, with detailed decomposition of NAS element nodes into individual actors and systems. Research will reveal affiliated groups. 

A capability will be developed to integrate data from a NAS simulation platform with the DNA model, allowing robust, integrated analysis of NAS traffic flows and the underlying trajectory negotiation activities, supporting NTN, TBO, & CATM
| FY11     | FY12     | FY13 | FY14 | FY15 |
|----------|----------|------|------|------|
| $449,870 | $750,000 | $0   | *    | *    |

18

* Proposed follow-on funding identified in Research Plan

Kevin Hatton

18

Partnerships:

Volpe

Funding:

Accomplishments / Plans:

Development of improved departure prediction benefits analysis (Sep 2013)

Analyze improved departure predictability on demand predictions (Nov 2013)

Provide a framework for data mining from external sources for ingestion by NAS resources to improve systemic forecasts (FY14 Plan)

Enhanced Departure Predictability for TFM (EDPT)

Description:

This research will analyze the amount of improvement in off-time predictions from enhanced NAS user tools, the ability to provide such improved data to TFM, and the resulting improvements in demand predictions

EDPT proposes to demonstrate the ability and benefits of better off-time predictions through collaboration with airlines and industry to conduct an operational demonstration of such a tool
| FY11     | FY12     | FY13 | FY14 | FY15 |
|----------|----------|------|------|------|
| $300,000 | $300,000 | $0   | *    | *    |

19

* Proposed follow-on funding identified in Research Plan

Kevin Hatton

19

Partnerships:

TBD

Funding:

Accomplishments / Plans:

Statistical Methods for Departure Predictability (SMDP)

Description: 

Develop BBN Model Approach (Aug 2013)

Delivery of Model, Report, & Briefing (Jan 2014)

SMDP research will develop a probabilistic directed acyclic graphical model for improving departure time predictions by developing a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model that will utilize historical data to improve the reliability of departure time predictions for real-time traffic flow management
| FY11 | FY12     | FY13 | FY14 | FY15 |
|------|----------|------|------|------|
| $0   | $700,000 | $0   | *    | *    |

20

* Proposed follow-on funding identified in Research Plan

Kevin Hatton

20

Partnerships:

TBD

Funding:

Accomplishments / Plans:

TMI Attribute Standardization for Tracking and Simulation (TAS)

Description: 

TMI Analysis Report  (Oct 2013)

TMI Workshop (Nov 2013)

TMI Taxonomy Report (May 2014)

This research will utilize historical and current TMI data to define a system model in which TMI attributes are categorized in a manner that will facilitate real-time TMI information and feedback to NAS users, unified TMI modeling, post-event analysis, and continuous flight day evaluation

This research will also result in standardized TMI entry, parsing, and tracking, by enhancing functionality currently provided by NTML
| FY11 | FY12     | FY13 | FY14 | FY15 |
|------|----------|------|------|------|
| $0   | $700,000 | $0   | *    | *    |

21

* Proposed follow-on funding identified in Research Plan

Kevin Hatton

21

Traffic Management Initiative

Domain

Ground Delay Program

Miles-in-Trail

Tunneling

Capping

Minutes-in-Trail

Qualifier

Aircraft Type

Route

Time

Location

Facility

Miles

Speed

Partnerships:

FAA Commercial Space Transportation (AST)

Stanford University

Funding:

Accomplishments / Plans:

Space Vehicle Operations (SVO)

Description: 

Conducted Focus Group (Dec 2012)

Developed Shortfall Analysis (Apr 2013)

SVO Focus Group # 2 (Sep 2013)

SVO Concept of Operations in the NAS (Jun 2014)

Integrated NAS/SVO Simulation Model (Oct 2014)

This research will analyze space vehicle operations to include launch patterns, trajectory characteristics, safety data, locations, expected launch quantities, and impact to airborne and ground aircraft

This research will result in a SVO Concept of Operations, covering pre-launch, launch, recovery, and a NAS/Safety impact assessment
| FY11     | FY12     | FY13     | FY14 | FY15 |
|----------|----------|----------|------|------|
| $300,000 | $580,000 | $500,000 | *    | *    |

22

* Proposed follow-on funding identified in Research Plan

Kevin Hatton

22

Partnerships:

AIR

Boeing

Commercial Airline (TBD)

Funding:

Accomplishments / Plans:

Datalink of Complex PBN Clearances in Support of 4D TBO

Description: 

Research Objectives

Identify candidate Complex PBN Clearances (CPCs) that are operationally and technically viable and that yield the highest benefits

CPC applications will be mapped in support of arrival / departure and high altitude en route operations.

Focus: Further-term requirements (ATN avionics)

Provide annotated outline of ConOps (Oct 2013)

Develop Concept of Operations (Feb 2014)

ROM Benefits Case (Feb 2014)

Provide whitepaper summarizing findings / recommendations (Apr 2014)
| FY11 | FY12     | FY13 | FY14 | FY15 |
|------|----------|------|------|------|
| $0   | $800,000 | $0   | *    | *    |

23

* Proposed follow-on funding identified in Research Plan

Marc Buntin

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Partnerships:

SBS			MITRE

MIT/LL 			CSSI

BAH/MCR

WJHTC Human Factors Lab

Funding:

Draft Shortfall Analysis (Mar 2013)

Draft Concept of Operations (Jun 2013)

Draft Research Questions (Jun 2013)

Preliminary benefits cost analysis (May 2013)

Collaborate with SBS Office to conduct CHI alternatives analysis (on-going)

Remote Operations at Non-Towered Airports (RONA) Research

Description:

Develop operational concept to remotely operate currently non-towered airports 

Support the SBS Office in the development of the Blended Airspace concept
| FY11       | FY12     | FY13     | FY14 | FY15 |
|------------|----------|----------|------|------|
| $1,050,000 | $575,544 | $850,000 | *    | *    |

Accomplishments / Plans:

Remote Facility

Fully Remote Ops

 Additional Services

 Advanced Automation

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* Proposed follow-on funding identified in Research Plan

Kristina Carr

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Partnerships:

Flight Standards Service: AFS-80 & AFS-400

Air Traffic Organization: AJV-7

Aircraft Certification Service: AIR-130

Accomplishments / Plans:

UAS Integration into the NAS

Description: 

Mature concept of operations for UAS integration into the NAS

Identify gaps in ConOps 2.0 in need of maturation and elements ready for validation

Generate operational scenarios for mature state and mid-term UAS operations

Document concept-level operational requirements, for both NAS and UAS operators, for mature state and mid-term UAS operations in the NAS

Deliver initial set of operational requirements for mature state UAS operations based on ConOps 2.0 (Nov 2013) (FY12 PLA milestone)

Deliver updated set of operational requirements for mature state UAS operations based on concept maturation activities (Mar 2014)

Map past and current research to concept requirements to leverage existing data and identify gaps in research (Mar 2014)

Deliver initial set of operational requirements for mid-term UAS operations based on operational scenario development (Apr 2014)

Funding:
| FY11 | FY12     | FY13     | FY14 | FY15 |
|------|----------|----------|------|------|
| $0   | $445,627 | $500,000 | *    | $0   |

* Proposed follow-on funding identified in Research Plan

Sherri Magyarits

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Partnerships:

Boeing

Funding:

Accomplishments / Plans:

Vertical Conformance Verification (VCV)

Description: 

The objective of the VCV concept is to develop a means for obtaining and monitoring real-time vertical rate (climb and descent) for flights spanning from top of descent to touchdown and from departure to top of climb.

Benefits: Addition of vertical rate information will improve controllers’ ability to monitor aircraft conformance, thereby providing opportunities to increase efficiency and capacity in transition airspace.  

VCV Operational Improvement Assessment (Sep 2014)
| FY11 | FY12     | FY13 | FY14 | FY15 |
|------|----------|------|------|------|
| $0   | $700,000 | *    | *    | *    |

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* Proposed follow-on funding identified in Research Plan

Phil Bassett

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