Housing Forecast: March 2022

21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 2021 2022 2023

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,599 1,588 1,562 1,654 1,668 1,639 1,594 1,568 1,560 1,531 1,522 1,516 1,597 1,617 1,532

 Percent Change: YoY 15.8 1.2 -5.3

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 1,156 1,107 1,096 1,159 1,165 1,170 1,146 1,128 1,123 1,104 1,097 1,093 1,126 1,152 1,104

 Percent Change: YoY 13.6 2.4 -4.2

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 443 482 465 495 503 469 447 439 437 427 425 423 472 465 428

 Percent Change: YoY 21.2 -1.5 -8.0

 Total Home Sales 7,183 6,687 6,766 6,955 6,899 6,551 6,492 6,483 6,476 6,437 6,400 6,398 6,887 6,606 6,428

 Percent Change: YoY 6.6 -4.1 -2.7

 New Single-Family 896 737 699 752 835 867 874 868 864 853 847 844 767 861 852

 Percent Change: YoY -6.7 12.3 -1.0

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 6,287 5,950 6,067 6,203 6,064 5,684 5,618 5,615 5,612 5,584 5,553 5,555 6,120 5,745 5,576

 Percent Change: YoY 8.5 -6.1 -2.9

NSA, Thous. $

 Median New Home Price 365 381 408 416 429 431 449 450 452 451 466 463 397 440 458

 Median Existing Home Price 314 351 356 354 368 398 392 383 389 416 407 394 347 385 401

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 FHFA Purchase-Only Index 13.1 17.7 18.6 17.6 15.5 11.8 9.3 7.6 5.4 4.9 3.8 3.3 17.6 7.6 3.3

Percent: Quarterly Avg, Annual Avg

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.0 3.8 3.9

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 2.6 3.1 3.4

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 1,239 1,122 1,102 1,007 774 772 751 686 582 746 736 660 4,469 2,983 2,725

 Purchase 367 501 518 477 384 549 538 474 393 563 548 479 1,863 1,946 1,983

 Refinance 871 620 584 530 390 223 213 212 189 183 189 181 2,606 1,037 742

 Refinance Share (Percent) 70 55 53 53 50 29 28 31 32 25 26 27 58 35 27

 --------------- 2021 --------------- --------------- 2022 --------------- --------------- 2023 ---------------

March 10, 2022

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from February 28, 2022.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: FHFA Purchase-Only Index and median home price forecasts are updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's 

business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although 

the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, 

current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, 

forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.