Housing Forecast: February 2022

21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 2021 2022 2023

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,599 1,588 1,562 1,644 1,637 1,640 1,605 1,563 1,541 1,520 1,509 1,504 1,595 1,611 1,519

 Percent Change: YoY 15.6 1.0 -5.8

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 1,156 1,107 1,096 1,148 1,163 1,195 1,170 1,148 1,129 1,110 1,102 1,099 1,123 1,169 1,110

 Percent Change: YoY 13.4 4.1 -5.0

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 443 482 465 496 474 445 435 415 412 410 407 405 472 442 408

 Percent Change: YoY 21.3 -6.3 -7.7

 Total Home Sales 7,200 6,571 6,755 7,061 7,041 6,671 6,592 6,574 6,549 6,496 6,455 6,448 6,882 6,719 6,487

 Percent Change: YoY 6.5 -2.4 -3.5

 New Single-Family 896 737 698 728 847 890 895 885 871 857 851 848 762 879 857

 Percent Change: YoY -7.3 15.4 -2.5

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 6,303 5,833 6,057 6,333 6,194 5,781 5,697 5,689 5,678 5,639 5,604 5,599 6,120 5,840 5,630

 Percent Change: YoY 8.5 -4.6 -3.6

NSA, Thous. $

 Median New Home Price 365 381 408 405 429 431 449 438 452 451 466 451 393 437 455

 Median Existing Home Price 314 351 356 355 368 398 392 384 389 416 407 395 347 386 402

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 FHFA Purchase-Only Index 13.1 17.7 18.5 17.3 15.5 11.8 9.3 7.6 5.4 4.9 3.8 3.3 17.3 7.6 3.3

Percent: Quarterly Avg, Annual Avg

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.0 3.6 3.8

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 2.6 2.9 3.2

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 1,239 1,121 1,101 985 771 836 819 740 628 796 791 699 4,447 3,166 2,915

 Purchase 367 501 518 471 408 566 567 490 406 581 576 492 1,857 2,031 2,055

 Refinance 871 620 584 514 363 270 252 250 223 215 215 207 2,589 1,135 860

 Refinance Share (Percent) 70 55 53 52 47 32 31 34 35 27 27 30 58 36 30

 --------------- 2021 --------------- --------------- 2022 --------------- --------------- 2023 ---------------

February 10, 2022

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from January 31, 2022.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: FHFA Purchase-Only Index and median home price forecasts are updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's 

business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although 

the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, 

current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, 

forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.