15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 2014 2015 2016 2017

Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts 978 1,158 1,163 1,165 1,190 1,215 1,241 1,281 1,315 1,337 1,376 1,391 1,003 1,116 1,232 1,355

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 643 706 746 745 780 810 836 881 915 937 956 971 648 710 827 945

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 4.9% 9.6% 16.4% 14.3%

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 335 451 418 420 410 405 405 400 400 400 420 420 355 406 405 410

New Single-Family Home Sales 517 497 500 491 521 547 560 593 608 624 636 649 437 501 555 629

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 1.9% 14.7% 10.8% 13.3%

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops) 4,973 5,300 5,477 5,422 5,430 5,433 5,451 5,465 5,496 5,506 5,543 5,575 4,940 5,293 5,445 5,530

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year -2.9% 7.1% 2.9% 1.6%

Total Home Sales (New + Existing) 5,490 5,797 5,977 5,913 5,950 5,980 6,010 6,058 6,104 6,130 6,179 6,223 5,377 5,794 6,000 6,159

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year -2.6% 7.8% 3.5% 2.7%

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New 293 290 294 316 306 301 306 331 320 313 317 342 283 298 311 323

Median Total Existing 203 228 227 217 213 237 236 228 222 246 245 236 208 219 228 237

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (% Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 5.3% 5.4% 4.9% 4.7% 4.6% 3.9% 4.2% 4.9% 4.8% 4.1% 3.8% 3.7% 5.0% 4.7% 4.9% 3.7%

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2 3.8 4.0 4.2

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.5

1-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 2.4 2.5 2.8 3.1

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations 384 500 426 401 306 380 372 347 287 374 374 352 1,301 1,711 1,405 1,388

 Purchase 156 261 262 244 173 267 268 246 185 277 279 257 783 923 953 998

 Refinance 229 239 164 157 133 113 105 101 102 97 95 95 518 788 452 389

Refinance Share (%) 59% 48% 38% 39% 44% 30% 28% 29% 35% 26% 25% 27% 40% 46% 32% 28%

November 10, 2015

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from October 30, 2015.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research group

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business 

prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group 

bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any 

particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the 

ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.

Housing Forecast: November 2015

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