Economic Forecast: February 2015

ECONOMIC AND STRATEGIC RESEARCH

14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 2014 2015 2016

National Income and Product Accounts (Chained 2009$)

Percent Change: Quarterly SAAR, Annual Q4/Q4

Gross Domestic Product -2.1 4.6 5.0 2.6 2.6 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.9 2.5

Personal Consumption Expenditures 1.2 2.5 3.2 4.3 3.7 3.4 3.1 3.1 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.8 3.3 2.4

Residential Fixed Investment -5.3 8.8 3.2 4.1 2.8 6.9 9.5 13.0 7.2 6.3 4.5 5.8 2.6 8.0 5.9

Business Fixed Investment 1.6 9.7 8.9 1.9 3.0 5.5 5.3 4.3 4.3 4.0 4.3 4.1 5.5 4.5 4.2

Government Consumption & Investment -0.8 1.7 4.4 -2.2 0.9 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.5

Billions of Chained 2009$

Net Exports -447 -460 -431 -472 -476 -473 -473 -480 -488 -477 -466 -452 -453 -476 -471

Change in Business Inventories 35 85 82 113 98 88 82 76 77 56 48 48 79 86 57

Income (Billions of Nominal $)

Disposable Personal Income 12,773 12,945 13,050 13,155 13,298 13,396 13,512 13,639 13,775 13,905 14,047 14,205 12,981 13,461 13,983

Percent Change: Quarterly SAAR, Annual Q4/Q4 4.8 5.5 3.3 3.3 4.4 3.0 3.5 3.8 4.1 3.8 4.2 4.6 4.2 3.7 4.2

Price Indices

Percent Change: Quarterly SAAR, Annual Q4/Q4

GDP Price Index 1.3 2.1 1.4 0.0 0.9 2.3 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.2 1.7 1.9

Consumer Price Index 1.9 3.0 1.1 -1.2 -1.3 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.2 1.2 1.8

Consumer Price Index excl. Food & Energy 1.6 2.5 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.8

Employment

Unemployment Rate (Percent) 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 6.2 5.4 5.2

Employment, Total Nonfarm Establishment Survey (Percent Change: Quarterly SAAR, Annual Q4/Q4) 1.6 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.2 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.2 1.6

Interest Rates (Percent)

Federal Funds Rate 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 0.1 0.4 1.1

1-Year Treasury Note Yield 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.2 0.1 0.6 1.8

10-Year Treasury Bond Yield 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.3 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.0 2.3

February 10, 2015

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from January 30, 2015.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other view s of Fannie Mae's ESR group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating

Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change w ithout notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae w ill depend

on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other view s on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided

in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these view s could produce materially different results.

The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other view s published by the ESR group represent the view s of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the view s

of Fannie Mae or its management.

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