Housing Forecast: January 2015

ECONOMIC AND STRATEGIC RESEARCH

Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts

Single-Family (1 Unit)

Percent Change: Year-over-Year

Multifamily (2+ Units)

New Single-Family Home Sales

Percent Change: Year-over-Year

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops)

Percent Change: Year-over-Year

Total Home Sales (New + Existing)

Percent Change: Year-over-Year

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New

Median Total Existing

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4)

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage

1-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations

Purchase

Refinance

Refinance Share (%)

Liquidations

Mortgage Debt Outstanding (NSA, Bil. $)

MDO Single-Family First Lien (1-4 Units)

Percent Change: Quarterly Annualized Rate, Annual Q4/Q4

MDO Total Single-Family (1-4 Units)

Percent Change: Quarterly Annualized Rate, Annual Q4/Q4

Adjustable Rate Mortgage Share of Conventional Mortgage Applications (%)

January 12, 2015

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from December 31, 2014.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating

Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend

on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided

in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results.

The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views

14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

925 985 1,030 1,048 1,085 1,130 1,180 1,225 781 925 997 1,155 1,319

602 625 652 688 700 740 790 830 535 618 642 765 921

24.3% 15.4% 3.9% 19.2% 20.4%

323 360 378 360 385 390 390 395 245 307 355 390 398

431 427 434 442 468 495 531 549 368 429 433 511 622

20.3% 16.6% 1.0% 17.8% 21.9%

4,603 4,867 5,120 5,060 5,090 5,131 5,175 5,192 4,660 5,090 4,913 5,147 5,263

9.4% 9.2% -3.5% 4.8% 2.3%

5,034 5,294 5,554 5,502 5,557 5,627 5,706 5,741 5,028 5,519 5,346 5,658 5,885

10.1% 9.8% -3.1% 5.8% 4.0%

274 282 279 285 286 293 289 298 245 269 280 292 303

191 212 216 206 200 220 225 215 177 197 206 215 223

6.9% 5.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.7% 3.8% 4.1% 4.6% 5.3% 7.7% 4.7% 4.6% 4.0%

4.4 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.0 4.4

3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.4 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.7

2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.6 3.2

240 305 328 294 269 321 307 284 2,154 1,866 1,167 1,181 1,186

123 186 189 163 136 195 196 175 614 743 662 702 773

116 119 139 131 133 126 112 109 1,540 1,123 506 479 413

49% 39% 42% 45% 50% 39% 36% 38% 72% 60% 43% 41% 35%

261 310 309 283 290 285 266 260 2,291 1,896 1,163 1,102 993

9,162 9,157 9,176 9,188 9,167 9,202 9,243 9,267 9,213 9,184 9,188 9,267 9,459

-0.9% -0.2% 0.8% 0.5% -0.9% 1.6% 1.8% 1.0% -1.5% -0.3% 0.0% 0.9% 2.1%

9,853 9,841 9,855 9,863 9,840 9,880 9,926 9,953 9,983 9,887 9,863 9,953 10,170

-1.4% -0.5% 0.6% 0.3% -0.9% 1.6% 1.9% 1.1% -2.2% -1.0% -0.2% 0.9% 2.2%

9% 10% 9% 9% 8% 8% 9% 9% 5% 7% 9% 8% 9%

--------------- 2014 --------------- --------------- 2015 ---------------

of Fannie Mae or its management.