Housing Forecast: July 2020

19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 2019 2020 2021

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,204 1,257 1,288 1,433 1,484 1,007 1,110 1,142 1,171 1,195 1,226 1,261 1,290 1,186 1,213

 Percent Change: YoY 3.2 -8.1 2.3

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 859 850 897 964 968 722 815 831 842 858 880 907 888 834 872

 Percent Change: YoY 1.4 -6.1 4.5

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 345 407 390 469 517 285 295 311 329 337 346 354 402 352 342

 Percent Change: YoY 7.5 -12.5 -3.0

 Total Home Sales 5,864 5,957 6,108 6,131 6,184 4,967 6,085 5,188 5,554 5,778 5,881 5,966 6,023 5,606 5,794

 Percent Change: YoY 1.1 -6.9 3.4

 New Single-Family 667 663 698 711 701 661 660 645 648 652 658 667 683 667 656

 Percent Change: YoY 10.7 -2.4 -1.6

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,197 5,293 5,410 5,420 5,483 4,306 5,425 4,543 4,906 5,126 5,223 5,299 5,340 4,939 5,138

 Percent Change: YoY 0.0 -7.5 4.0

NSA, Thous. $

 Median New Home Price 312 321 317 327 331 340 335 341 339 345 337 342 322 337 341

 Median Existing Home Price 253 277 277 272 272 293 293 284 279 297 294 285 272 286 289

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 FHFA Purchase-Only Index 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.3 5.8 5.7 5.6 4.4 2.4 1.5 0.6 1.0 5.3 4.4 1.0

Percent

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 3.9 3.2 2.8

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 3.6 3.1 2.7

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 334 540 716 715 739 1,072 790 538 476 659 640 570 2,305 3,139 2,345

 Purchase 227 360 381 323 286 303 390 278 230 366 363 319 1,291 1,258 1,279

 Refinance 107 180 335 392 453 769 400 260 245 293 277 251 1,013 1,881 1,066

 Refinance Share (Percent) 32 33 47 55 61 72 51 48 52 44 43 44 44 60 45

 --------------- 2019 --------------- --------------- 2020 --------------- --------------- 2021 ---------------

July 10, 2020

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from June 30, 2020.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or 

expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, 

analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. 

Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views, including assumptions about the duration and magnitude of shutdowns and social distancing, could produce materially different results. The 

analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its 

management.