Housing Forecast: June 2017

16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 2016 2017 2018

Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts 1,153 1,158 1,150 1,248 1,242 1,200 1,255 1,285 1,310 1,330 1,340 1,350 1,174 1,246 1,333

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 787 756 761 834 841 840 860 880 920 940 960 980 782 855 950

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 9.4% 9.4% 11.1%

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 367 401 389 414 401 360 395 405 390 390 380 370 392 390 383

New Single-Family Home Sales 526 562 588 568 616 585 615 638 658 673 689 703 561 614 681

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 12.0% 9.4% 10.9%

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops) 5,357 5,477 5,380 5,547 5,623 5,591 5,555 5,592 5,594 5,627 5,676 5,778 5,450 5,590 5,669

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 3.8% 2.6% 1.4%

Total Home Sales (New + Existing) 5,883 6,039 5,968 6,115 6,239 6,176 6,170 6,230 6,252 6,300 6,365 6,481 6,011 6,204 6,349

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 4.5% 3.2% 2.3%

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New 305 313 307 317 322 330 323 333 337 345 337 346 310 327 341

Median Total Existing 216 239 239 234 228 253 252 246 239 264 263 255 232 245 255

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (% Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 6.1% 5.9% 6.0% 5.9% 5.2% 5.4% 5.0% 5.3% 4.9% 4.7% 4.4% 3.9% 5.9% 5.3% 3.9%

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.6 4.0 4.1

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.9 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 2.9 3.2 3.4

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations 373 505 599 574 376 462 423 363 310 419 425 379 2,052 1,624 1,533

 Purchase 189 291 311 270 204 304 307 263 211 324 332 286 1,061 1,078 1,153

 Refinance 184 215 288 304 172 159 116 100 98 95 94 93 991 546 381

Refinance Share (%) 49% 42% 48% 53% 46% 34% 27% 28% 32% 23% 22% 25% 48% 34% 25%

June 12, 2017

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from May 31, 2017.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating 

Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend 

on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided 

in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. 

The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views 

of Fannie Mae or its management.

 --------------- 2016 --------------- --------------- 2017 --------------- --------------- 2018 ---------------