Housing Forecast: December 2022

22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.4 2021 2022 2023 2024

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,720 1,647 1,458 1,381 1,242 1,145 1,093 1,098 1,120 1,152 1,205 1,261 1,601 1,551 1,145 1,185

 Percent Change: YoY 16.0 -3.1 -26.2 3.5

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 1,187 1,086 911 838 770 748 765 793 815 840 880 914 1,127 1,006 769 862

 Percent Change: YoY 13.8 -10.8 -23.5 12.1

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 533 561 546 543 472 397 328 305 305 312 326 347 474 546 376 322

 Percent Change: YoY 21.8 15.2 -31.2 -14.2

 Total Home Sales 6,833 5,982 5,367 4,709 4,507 4,477 4,579 4,710 4,935 5,139 5,348 5,546 6,891 5,723 4,568 5,242

 Percent Change: YoY 6.6 -17.0 -20.2 14.7

 New Single-Family 776 609 597 617 575 554 560 570 588 596 625 649 771 650 565 615

 Percent Change: YoY -6.2 -15.7 -13.1 8.9

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 6,057 5,373 4,770 4,092 3,932 3,923 4,019 4,140 4,347 4,543 4,723 4,896 6,120 5,073 4,004 4,627

 Percent Change: YoY 8.5 -17.1 -21.1 15.6

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 Fannie Mae HPI 20.0 19.1 13.8 9.0 3.3 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.4 -1.5 -1.4 -1.4 18.9 9.0 -1.5 -1.4

Percent: Quarterly Avg, Annual Avg

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.8 5.2 5.6 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.4 3.0 5.3 6.3 5.6

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 745 676 530 395 318 453 467 458 409 569 583 548 4,570 2,346 1,696 2,109

 Purchase 394 506 434 327 241 364 373 353 276 422 429 405 1,900 1,660 1,331 1,533

 Refinance 351 170 97 68 77 89 95 105 133 147 154 143 2,670 686 366 576

 Refinance Share (Percent) 47 25 18 17 24 20 20 23 33 26 26 26 58 29 22 27

December 12, 2022

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from November 30, 2022; all other forecasts are based on the date above.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: The Fannie Mae HPI forecast is updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business 

prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases 

its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any 

particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the 

ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management. 

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