15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 2014 2015 2016 2017

National Income and Product Accounts (Chained 2009$)

Percent Change: Quarterly SAAR, Annual Q4/Q4

 Gross Domestic Product 0.6 3.9 2.0 1.3 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.5 2.0 2.2 2.2

 Personal Consumption Expenditures 1.8 3.6 3.0 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 3.2 2.6 2.5 2.2

 Residential Fixed Investment 10.1 9.3 8.2 4.5 8.0 8.1 7.9 8.5 5.4 4.4 3.5 3.1 5.1 8.0 8.1 4.1

 Business Fixed Investment 1.6 4.1 2.6 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.1 2.7 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.0 5.5 2.8 2.5 3.1

 Government Consumption & Investment -0.1 2.6 1.8 0.1 1.8 1.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.4 1.1 1.3 0.8

Billions of Chained 2009$

 Net Exports -541 -535 -546 -549 -556 -566 -580 -596 -599 -600 -602 -609 -443 -543 -575 -602

 Change in Business Inventories 113 114 86 60 51 41 43 44 45 45 46 46 68 93 45 45

Price Indices

Percent Change: Quarterly SAAR, Annual Q4/Q4

GDP Price Index 0.1 2.1 1.3 1.3 1.6 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.8 1.9

Consumer Price Index -3.1 3.0 1.6 0.4 1.5 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.5 2.0 2.2 2.3 1.2 0.5 1.9 2.2

Consumer Price Index (Quarterly YOY % Change, Annual YOY % Change) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 1.6 0.1 1.6 2.2

Consumer Price Index excl. Food & Energy 1.7 2.5 1.7 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.9

Consumer Price Index excl. Food & Energy (Quarterly YOY % Change, Annual YOY % Change) 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.1 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.8

Employment

Unemployment Rate (Percent) 5.6 5.4 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 6.2 5.3 4.9 4.7

Employment, Total Nonfarm Establishment Survey (Percent Change: Quarterly SAAR, Annual Q4/Q4) 2.2 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.1 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.2

Interest Rates (Percent)

Federal Funds Rate 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.3

1-Year Treasury Note Yield 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.8 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.8

10-Year Treasury Bond Yield 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.1 2.4 2.6

January 11, 2016

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from December 31, 2015.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research Group

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or 

expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, 

analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in 

the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that 

group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.

Economic Forecast: January 2016

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