15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 2015 2016 2017

Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts 978 1,158 1,158 1,133 1,171 1,212 1,257 1,296 1,340 1,347 1,361 1,371 1,111 1,234 1,355

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 643 706 745 759 770 800 836 861 905 917 936 951 715 817 927

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 10.4% 14.2% 13.5%

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 335 451 414 374 401 412 421 435 435 430 425 420 396 417 428

New Single-Family Home Sales 517 497 488 506 540 550 560 579 601 608 624 634 501 558 617

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 14.6% 11.3% 10.6%

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops) 4,973 5,297 5,477 5,180 5,332 5,404 5,424 5,450 5,502 5,496 5,535 5,586 5,260 5,402 5,530

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 6.5% 2.7% 2.4%

Total Home Sales (New + Existing) 5,490 5,794 5,965 5,686 5,873 5,954 5,984 6,029 6,102 6,105 6,159 6,220 5,761 5,960 6,147

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 7.1% 3.5% 3.1%

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New 293 290 301 294 308 303 315 309 323 315 327 320 295 308 321

Median Total Existing 203 228 227 221 214 238 237 232 224 248 247 241 220 230 240

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (% Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 5.3% 5.6% 5.7% 5.1% 5.1% 4.4% 4.6% 5.2% 5.0% 4.3% 4.0% 3.8% 5.1% 5.2% 3.8%

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.9

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 2.9 3.0 3.2

1-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.5 2.6 2.8

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations 385 500 427 378 323 411 404 370 306 391 386 354 1,690 1,508 1,438

 Purchase 156 261 263 215 174 266 268 242 186 278 280 254 896 950 998

 Refinance 229 239 164 163 149 145 136 128 120 113 106 100 795 558 440

Refinance Share (%) 59% 48% 38% 43% 46% 35% 34% 35% 39% 29% 28% 28% 47% 37% 31%

February 9, 2016

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from January 29, 2016.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research Group

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business 

prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group 

bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any 

particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the 

ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.

Housing Forecast: February 2016

 --------------- 2015 --------------- --------------- 2016 --------------- --------------- 2017 ---------------