Housing Forecast: January 2019

18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 2017 2018 2019 2020

Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts 1,317 1,261 1,234 1,238 1,247 1,261 1,271 1,282 1,287 1,288 1,289 1,288 1,203 1,262 1,265 1,288

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 889 896 877 850 875 895 912 928 934 937 939 940 849 878 903 938

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 8.6% 3.4% 2.8% 3.9%

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 428 365 357 388 372 366 359 354 353 351 350 348 354 384 363 351

New Single-Family Home Sales 656 633 598 577 593 618 628 632 635 637 639 640 613 616 618 638

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 9.3% 0.5% 0.3% 3.2%

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops) 5,507 5,413 5,273 5,292 5,317 5,345 5,395 5,441 5,449 5,454 5,457 5,459 5,510 5,371 5,375 5,455

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 1.1% -2.5% 0.1% 1.5%

Total Home Sales (New + Existing) 6,163 6,046 5,871 5,869 5,910 5,963 6,023 6,073 6,084 6,091 6,096 6,099 6,123 5,987 5,993 6,092

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 1.9% -2.2% 0.1% 1.7%

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New 331 314 324 353 347 328 338 368 360 338 347 377 323 331 345 355

Median Total Existing 244 266 264 260 256 278 275 270 265 286 282 277 247 258 270 278

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (% Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 7.4% 6.8% 6.3% 5.5% 4.4% 4.4% 4.5% 4.2% 4.0% 3.3% 2.8% 2.8% 6.9% 5.5% 4.2% 2.8%

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.5 4.5 4.5

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 3.2 3.8 3.9 3.9

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations 374 447 422 384 324 443 439 408 338 458 451 416 1,826 1,626 1,614 1,664

 Purchase 227 335 319 284 220 336 332 303 236 356 348 314 1,177 1,165 1,191 1,253

 Refinance 147 111 103 100 103 107 107 105 103 102 104 102 650 461 423 411

Refinance Share (%) 39% 25% 24% 26% 32% 24% 24% 26% 30% 22% 23% 25% 36% 28% 26% 25%

January 10, 2019

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from December 31, 2018.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating 

Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend 

on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided 

in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. 

The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views 

of Fannie Mae or its management.

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