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Multifamily Economic and Market Commentary

June 2022

Spring 2022 Off-Campus Student Housing Update

The spring 2022 semester data on off-campus student housing fundamentals reflects the continued increase in

demand as experienced by the sector during the fall 2021 semester. Off-campus student housing rent growth achieved

new record highs during the spring 2022 semester, not too dissimilar to the increase in demand experienced for

conventional multifamily units over the same time period. However, we expect the off-campus student housing sector

to face certain headwinds over its short-term outlook that could impact future demand.

New off-campus student housing development is enduring the same supply chain issues and labor shortages that are

impacting the larger construction industry, thereby stalling new deliveries for the next 12 to 18 months, as seen in the

chart below. Additionally, enrollment rates are continuing to decline, due to what we believe is a combination of

demographic trends, job growth, elevated tuition costs, and inflation levels not seen in nearly 40 years.

Moderating Supply

New off-campus student housing supply has been trending downward since 2016, as seen above. For the third

consecutive school year, new supply is anticipated to keep declining, after falling to just 35,000 beds this past fall 2021

semester. Only 31,300 new beds are expected for the upcoming fall 2022 school year and just 29,000 new beds for the

following school year, which would be a new low in terms of deliveries over the past decade.

This trend of moderating supply was not unexpected. Indeed, the off-campus student housing sector had been

oversupplied for quite some time. Between 2013 and 2016 there were approximately 241,000 beds delivered, and since

then the number of beds delivered annually has been steadily decreasing. Many off-campus student housing

developers realized that declining enrollments were resulting in a softening of demand and began curtailing the

number of new development projects. Additionally, due to a combination of higher building material prices and the

ongoing supply chain issues, many developers are narrowing their pipelines to focus on more timely projects that will

deliver in the near term. As a result, new supply has fallen and is now more in line with expected demand.

Source: RealPage Inc.

*Indicates supply underway as of March 2022

Student Housing New Supply Deliveries by Beds 2013-2023*

 -

 10,000

 20,000

 30,000

 40,000

 50,000

 60,000

 70,000
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Multifamily Economic and Market Commentary

Rent Growth Rebounding from Pandemic Lows

At the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020, many college and university campuses began to close and, as a 

result, off-campus student housing rent growth declined dramatically that year, as seen in the chart below. Although 

off-campus student housing remained open, many students opted to stay at home. By the fall 2021 semester, there 

was elevated pent-up demand stemming from a variety of students, including those that had deferred their 2020 

acceptances, taken a gap year in the hopes of waiting out the pandemic, and new and returning students that were 

now willing to attend school in-person due to the availability of COVID-19 vaccines. 

Off-campus student housing rent growth has remained positive over the past several years, including during 2020 

when it squeaked by with just 0.5% annual rent growth, despite declining 4.4 percentage points year over year. 

However, due to the spike in demand the following year, rent growth in 2021 accelerated to a new high, rising an 

estimated 8.3%, besting the previous high of 6.1% in 2015. 

The amount of asking rents per bed rose alongside the higher rates of rent growth. For the year ending 2021, the 

asking rents per bed at off-campus student housing properties was estimated at approximately $943 compared to 

$871 per bed in 2020, according to data from RealPage, Inc. The increase of $72 per bed between 2020 and 2021 was 

the highest on record, and it’s much higher than the average annual increase of $32 per bed since 2013. The 2021 rate 

was a return to a more normalized increase after asking rents per bed had increased by just $4 in 2020 due to the lack 

of demand stemming from the pandemic. 

Annual Asking Rents & Year-Over-Year Asking Rent Growth at Off-Campus 

Student Housing Beds - 2013-2021

Source: RealPage Inc. 

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Rent Growth 

YoY (%)

Asking Rent 

($)

Asking Rent Rent Growth
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Multifamily Economic and Market Commentary

Source: RealPage Inc.

Declining Enrollments + Rising Tuition = Softening Demand

According to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, as of spring 2022, total undergraduate enrollment 

declined by 4.2% year over year, after having already declined by 3.5% in the spring 2021 semester. Declining college 

enrollments have trended downward over the past few years, and we expect that softer demand will continue for the 

next few years, due in part to rising tuition costs, which we’ll discuss below, and record levels of inflation. 

According to data from RealPage Inc., since 2013 weighted tuition growth, which includes both in-state and out-ofstate tuition costs, has risen at a much faster rate than enrollment growth each year. In fact, weighted tuition growth 

for 2021 was approximately 2.5% compared to enrollment growth of 1% during the same period. Furthermore, even 

during the onset of COVID-19 in 2020, weighted tuition growth still managed to outgrow enrollment growth, albeit 

slightly, as many institutions froze or delayed tuition increases. 

In 2020, weighted tuition growth was approximately 0.9% compared to enrollment growth of 0.6% . The current cohort 

of Generation Z college-age students is less populous than the previous and biggest cohort of Millennials. In addition, 

high school graduation rates have been declining in recent years, resulting in a smaller pool of potential college-age 

students. Enrollment growth has not exceeded 1% since 2017, and it bears watching if weighted tuition growth 

continues to increase, perhaps to help compensate for fewer students. 

Annual Enrollment & Weighted Tuition Growth - 2013-2021

Source: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center

-10.00%

-8.00%

-6.00%

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

Public (Four Year) Private Non-Profit

(Four Year)

Private For-Profit

(Four Year)

Public (Two Year) Total (All)

Spring 2020 Spring 2021 Spring 2022

Undergraduate Enrollment Changes Since Spring 2020

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Annual Growth

(%)

Enrollment Growth Weighted Tuition Growth
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Multifamily Economic and Market Commentary

New Supply Concentrated in the Southeast

According to RealPage Inc., much of the 31,300 new beds expected this year are being delivered to schools primarily 

located in the southeastern region of the country. Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University ( Virginia Tech) is 

expected to have the largest amount of new off-campus housing supply delivered, with at least 1,920 beds in the 

upcoming school year. The University of Florida and the University of Washington round out the top three, expecting 

1,672 and 1,616 beds, respectively. The 14 schools listed in the table below account for 18,000 new beds, which is nearly 

57% of the expected new supply for fall 2022. 

Student Housing Headwinds Persist

The off-campus student housing sector emerged from the pandemic and achieved performance levels that exceeded 

pre-pandemic highs, but that is not necessarily an indicator of future trends. New supply has continued to moderate and 

is now on track to deliver the lowest amount in more than a decade for both the upcoming fall 2022 and 2023 school 

years. 

The headwinds that persist for the student housing sector are a combination of demographic and economic. With 

weighted tuition costs continuing to rise faster than overall enrollment growth rates, the supply of off-campus student 

housing is likely to continue to decline, potentially worsened by a dwindling applicant pool. We believe the student 

housing sector will need to come up with creative ways to encourage those students that do enroll in colleges and 

universities to choose off-campus housing, and to continue to do so over the long term.

Source: RealPage Inc

Note: Data as of March 2022.

University Expected Beds Fall 

2022*

Virginia Tech University 1,920

University of Florida 1,672

University of Washington 1,616

Indiana University 1,570

University of North Carolina- Charlotte 1,478

Clemson University 1,396

University of Michigan 1,103

University of South Florida 1,086

University of Texas- Austin 1,039

University of Maryland 978

Auburn University 889

Northern Arizona University 854

George Mason University 825

University of Georgia 806

Georgia State University 741

Supply Underway at Select Universities for Fall 2022 
Multifamily Economic and Market Commentary

5

Francisco Nicco-Annan

Economist Advisor

Multifamily Economics and Research

June 13, 2022

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae’s Economic and 

Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as 

indicating Fannie Mae’s business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of

assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie 

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estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not 

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of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its 

management.