Housing Forecast: May 2018

17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 2017 2018 2019

Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts 1,238 1,167 1,172 1,256 1,318 1,320 1,278 1,285 1,292 1,305 1,310 1,315 1,203 1,300 1,306

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 839 825 848 893 889 905 930 940 950 960 970 980 849 916 965

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 8.6% 7.9% 5.4%

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 399 342 324 362 429 415 348 345 342 345 340 335 354 384 341

New Single-Family Home Sales 617 605 587 657 668 688 695 690 700 707 718 722 613 685 712

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 9.3% 11.8% 3.8%

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops) 5,600 5,547 5,403 5,593 5,507 5,610 5,608 5,650 5,647 5,645 5,670 5,690 5,510 5,594 5,663

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 1.1% 1.5% 1.2%

Total Home Sales (New + Existing) 6,217 6,152 5,991 6,250 6,175 6,298 6,303 6,340 6,347 6,352 6,388 6,412 6,123 6,279 6,375

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 1.9% 2.5% 1.5%

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New 312 317 323 335 330 334 341 353 346 349 354 366 323 340 354

Median Total Existing 231 254 253 247 244 268 267 260 256 280 278 269 247 260 270

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (% Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 6.5% 6.8% 6.7% 6.7% 6.9% 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 4.6% 4.5% 4.0% 3.6% 6.7% 5.8% 3.6%

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.0 4.5 4.7

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 3.2 3.8 4.1

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations 403 492 476 455 372 468 433 393 339 463 455 412 1,826 1,667 1,670

 Purchase 225 341 322 288 218 340 334 294 229 353 346 303 1,177 1,186 1,232

 Refinance 177 151 154 167 154 128 100 99 110 110 109 109 650 481 438

Refinance Share (%) 44% 31% 32% 37% 41% 27% 23% 25% 32% 24% 24% 26% 36% 29% 26%

May 11, 2018

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from April 30, 2018.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

2017 mortgage originations were revised as part of an annual benchmark to the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA)

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating 

Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend 

on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided 

in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. 

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