Housing Forecast: February 2023

22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.4 2022 2023 2024

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,720 1,647 1,450 1,403 1,266 1,175 1,136 1,143 1,174 1,201 1,236 1,268 1,553 1,180 1,220

 Percent Change: YoY -3.0 -24.0 3.4

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 1,187 1,086 905 862 772 736 752 796 835 868 893 909 1,008 764 876

 Percent Change: YoY -10.6 -24.2 14.7

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 533 561 545 541 494 439 384 347 339 333 343 359 545 416 344

 Percent Change: YoY 15.1 -23.8 -17.3

 Total Home Sales 6,833 5,982 5,350 4,782 4,634 4,600 4,678 4,766 4,897 5,030 5,192 5,356 5,670 4,669 5,119

 Percent Change: YoY -17.7 -17.6 9.6

 New Single-Family 776 609 580 605 621 598 602 616 624 630 639 650 644 609 635

 Percent Change: YoY -16.5 -5.4 4.3

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 6,057 5,373 4,770 4,177 4,013 4,002 4,076 4,150 4,274 4,400 4,553 4,707 5,026 4,060 4,483

 Percent Change: YoY -17.9 -19.2 10.4

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 Fannie Mae HPI 20.0 19.1 13.8 9.2 2.0 -3.1 -4.2 -4.2 -3.7 -3.4 -2.6 -2.3 9.2 -4.2 -2.3

Percent: Quarterly Avg, Annual Avg

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.8 5.2 5.6 6.7 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.3 5.9 5.2

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 752 678 534 399 316 453 477 439 395 557 574 506 2,364 1,685 2,031

 Purchase 393 505 434 328 244 368 375 330 269 406 412 367 1,660 1,317 1,454

 Refinance 360 174 100 71 72 85 102 109 125 150 162 139 704 367 577

 Refinance Share (Percent) 48 26 19 18 23 19 21 25 32 27 28 28 30 22 28

February 10, 2023

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from January 31, 2022; all other forecasts are based on the date above.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: The Fannie Mae HPI forecast is updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or 

expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, 

analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. 

Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the 

views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management. 

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