Housing Forecast: August 2023

22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.4 2022 2023 2024

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,718 1,636 1,446 1,405 1,385 1,447 1,438 1,361 1,302 1,286 1,302 1,327 1,553 1,408 1,304

 Percent Change: YoY -3.0 -9.3 -7.4

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 1,182 1,084 901 850 834 929 958 925 903 896 906 921 1,005 912 907

 Percent Change: YoY -10.8 -9.3 -0.5

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 535 551 545 556 552 518 480 436 399 390 396 405 547 496 398

 Percent Change: YoY 15.5 -9.3 -19.9

 Total Home Sales 6,747 5,970 5,359 4,795 4,965 4,944 4,866 4,814 4,799 4,870 4,969 5,069 5,671 4,897 4,927

 Percent Change: YoY -17.7 -13.6 0.6

 New Single-Family 763 603 583 598 638 694 715 705 675 684 691 696 641 688 687

 Percent Change: YoY -16.9 7.3 -0.2

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,983 5,367 4,777 4,197 4,327 4,250 4,151 4,109 4,124 4,186 4,278 4,373 5,030 4,209 4,240

 Percent Change: YoY -17.8 -16.3 0.7

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 Fannie Mae HPI 19.4 18.2 12.5 8.3 4.7 3.4 3.5 3.9 2.6 0.0 -0.1 -0.7 8.3 3.9 -0.7

Percent: Quarterly Avg, Annual Avg

 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.8 5.2 5.6 6.7 6.4 6.5 6.8 6.7 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.0 5.3 6.6 6.3

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 774 683 534 396 320 442 429 410 347 504 565 502 2,386 1,601 1,918

 Purchase 386 495 426 327 261 367 369 343 268 396 423 375 1,633 1,341 1,462

 Refinance 388 188 108 69 59 74 59 68 79 108 142 127 753 261 456

 Refinance Share (Percent) 50 27 20 17 19 17 14 16 23 21 25 25 32 16 24

August 10, 2023

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from July 31, 2023; all other forecasts are based on the date above.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: The Fannie Mae HPI forecast is updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Freddie Mac. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

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Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's 

business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although 

the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, 

current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, 

forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.