Housing Forecast: November 2016

16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 2015 2016 2017 2018

Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts 1,151 1,159 1,138 1,170 1,240 1,295 1,325 1,370 1,410 1,463 1,480 1,490 1,112 1,155 1,308 1,461

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 790 755 759 770 820 870 900 940 980 1,023 1,040 1,055 715 768 883 1,025

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 10.3% 7.5% 14.8% 16.1%

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 361 405 380 400 420 425 425 430 430 440 440 435 397 386 425 436

New Single-Family Home Sales 529 565 599 630 654 665 674 692 721 751 764 776 501 581 671 753

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 14.6% 15.9% 15.5% 12.2%

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops) 5,300 5,503 5,383 5,352 5,417 5,531 5,525 5,421 5,469 5,578 5,590 5,569 5,254 5,385 5,473 5,551

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 6.5% 2.5% 1.6% 1.4%

Total Home Sales (New + Existing) 5,829 6,068 5,982 5,982 6,071 6,196 6,198 6,112 6,189 6,329 6,354 6,345 5,755 5,965 6,144 6,304

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 7.1% 3.7% 3.0% 2.6%

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New 305 313 301 321 321 329 315 336 334 340 326 347 297 310 325 337

Median Total Existing 216 239 239 233 227 251 250 244 236 260 259 251 220 232 243 252

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (% Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 6.0% 5.6% 5.3% 5.2% 5.0% 5.1% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 5.9% 5.2% 4.8% 3.4%

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.5 3.6 3.6 3.8

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 2.8 3.1 3.2

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations 344 505 555 470 358 438 433 377 312 420 425 382 1,730 1,875 1,607 1,538

 Purchase 189 291 285 250 190 297 305 262 210 323 331 288 922 1,015 1,054 1,152

 Refinance 155 215 270 220 169 141 128 115 103 97 94 93 808 860 553 386

Refinance Share (%) 45% 42% 49% 47% 47% 32% 30% 31% 33% 23% 22% 24% 47% 46% 34% 25%

November 9, 2016

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from October 31, 2016.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating 

Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend 

on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided 

in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. 

The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views 

of Fannie Mae or its management.

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