Housing Forecast: August 2018

17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 2017 2018 2019

Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts 1,231 1,171 1,172 1,259 1,317 1,262 1,255 1,280 1,292 1,305 1,310 1,315 1,203 1,279 1,306

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 835 828 849 894 889 900 905 930 950 960 970 980 849 906 965

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 8.6% 6.7% 6.5%

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 396 342 322 365 428 362 350 350 342 345 340 335 354 372 341

New Single-Family Home Sales 619 604 584 655 656 646 650 660 670 677 688 692 613 653 682

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 9.3% 6.5% 4.4%

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops) 5,600 5,547 5,403 5,593 5,507 5,413 5,420 5,520 5,531 5,529 5,554 5,574 5,511 5,465 5,547

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 1.1% -0.8% 1.5%

Total Home Sales (New + Existing) 6,219 6,151 5,987 6,249 6,163 6,059 6,070 6,180 6,201 6,206 6,242 6,266 6,124 6,118 6,229

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 1.8% -0.1% 1.8%

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New 312 317 323 335 331 309 342 354 348 324 357 368 323 334 349

Median Total Existing 231 254 253 247 244 267 268 261 257 280 280 271 247 260 272

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (% Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 6.5% 6.8% 6.7% 6.8% 6.9% 6.1% 5.9% 5.3% 4.9% 4.8% 4.4% 4.1% 6.8% 5.3% 4.1%

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.0 4.5 4.7

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 3.2 3.8 4.2

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations 403 492 477 455 371 453 442 404 339 472 464 420 1,826 1,669 1,695

 Purchase 225 341 323 288 227 336 337 299 229 362 355 311 1,177 1,199 1,257

 Refinance 177 151 154 167 144 117 104 104 110 110 109 109 650 470 438

Refinance Share (%) 44% 31% 32% 37% 39% 26% 24% 26% 32% 23% 24% 26% 36% 28% 26%

August 10, 2018

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from July 31, 2018.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating 

Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend 

on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided 

in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. 

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