Housing Forecast: October 2020

19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 2019 2020 2021

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,204 1,257 1,288 1,433 1,484 1,079 1,452 1,394 1,386 1,414 1,450 1,480 1,290 1,352 1,433

 Percent Change: YoY 3.2 4.8 5.9

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 859 850 897 964 968 766 1,022 1,040 1,058 1,081 1,107 1,130 888 949 1,094

 Percent Change: YoY 1.4 6.9 15.3

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 345 407 390 469 517 313 430 354 328 333 343 350 402 403 339

 Percent Change: YoY 7.5 0.3 -16.1

 Total Home Sales 5,864 5,957 6,108 6,131 6,184 5,016 6,942 6,809 6,415 6,260 6,270 6,288 6,023 6,238 6,308

 Percent Change: YoY 1.1 3.6 1.1

 New Single-Family 667 663 698 711 701 703 990 943 905 835 840 847 683 834 857

 Percent Change: YoY 10.7 22.1 2.7

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,197 5,293 5,410 5,420 5,483 4,313 5,952 5,866 5,510 5,425 5,430 5,441 5,340 5,404 5,452

 Percent Change: YoY 0.0 1.2 0.9

NSA, Thous. $

 Median New Home Price 312 321 317 327 330 322 340 349 350 340 349 355 322 335 348

 Median Existing Home Price 253 277 277 272 272 288 297 291 289 304 305 296 272 287 299

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 FHFA Purchase-Only Index 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.4 6.0 5.4 7.1 6.4 5.9 5.4 2.3 2.1 5.4 6.4 2.1

Percent

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.9 3.1 2.8

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 3.6 3.1 2.8

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 359 581 752 770 789 1,148 1,251 895 576 702 702 641 2,462 4,083 2,622

 Purchase 238 379 378 331 290 357 460 389 297 439 442 386 1,326 1,496 1,564

 Refinance 120 202 374 439 498 791 791 506 279 264 260 255 1,136 2,587 1,058

 Refinance Share (Percent) 34 35 50 57 63 69 63 57 48 38 37 40 46 63 40

 --------------- 2019 --------------- --------------- 2020 --------------- --------------- 2021 ---------------

October 12, 2020

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from September 30, 2020.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or 

expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, 

analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. 

Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the 

views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.