Housing Forecast: April 2015

14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 2014 2015 2016

Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts 925 985 1,030 1,063 1,010 1,110 1,180 1,225 1,245 1,315 1,350 1,365 1,003 1,131 1,319

Single-Family (1 Unit) 602 625 652 705 650 720 790 830 850 920 950 965 648 748 921

Percent Change: Year-over-Year 4.9% 15.4% 23.2%

Multifamily (2+ Units) 323 360 378 358 360 390 390 395 395 395 400 400 355 384 398

New Single-Family Home Sales 431 427 434 465 511 532 551 569 579 619 640 652 436 541 622

Percent Change: Year-over-Year 1.6% 24.0% 15.1%

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops) 4,603 4,867 5,123 5,070 4,902 5,102 5,175 5,188 5,225 5,259 5,266 5,322 4,940 5,092 5,268

Percent Change: Year-over-Year -2.9% 3.1% 3.5%

Total Home Sales (New + Existing) 5,034 5,294 5,557 5,535 5,413 5,633 5,727 5,757 5,803 5,878 5,906 5,974 5,376 5,633 5,890

Percent Change: Year-over-Year -2.6% 4.8% 4.6%

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New 274 282 278 299 285 291 287 312 298 304 300 325 284 294 307

Median Total Existing 191 212 216 208 199 219 224 216 208 228 233 225 208 214 224

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 6.9% 5.6% 4.7% 4.9% 4.3% 3.7% 3.8% 4.5% 5.1% 4.4% 4.4% 4.2% 4.9% 4.5% 4.2%

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 3.8 4.1

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.0 3.0 3.4

1-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 2.4 2.5 3.0

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations 240 312 336 295 321 367 347 315 264 324 328 315 1,184 1,351 1,231

Purchase 123 190 194 169 133 208 211 190 144 222 226 207 676 742 798

Refinance 116 122 142 127 188 159 136 125 120 102 102 108 507 609 433

Refinance Share (%) 49% 39% 42% 43% 59% 43% 39% 40% 46% 32% 31% 34% 43% 45% 35%

Liquidations 260 315 317 283 295 311 295 296 225 272 268 252 1,175 1,198 1,018

Mortgage Debt Outstanding (NSA, Bil. $)

MDO Single-Family First Lien (1-4 Units) 9,161 9,159 9,177 9,190 9,215 9,271 9,324 9,342 9,381 9,432 9,493 9,555 9,190 9,342 9,555

Percent Change: Quarterly Annualized Rate, Annual Q4/Q4 -0.9% -0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 1.1% 2.5% 2.3% 0.8% 1.6% 2.2% 2.6% 2.7% 0.1% 1.7% 2.3%

MDO Total Single-Family (1-4 Units) 9,851 9,843 9,857 9,862 9,890 9,951 10,009 10,031 10,075 10,133 10,200 10,270 9,862 10,031 10,270

Percent Change: Quarterly Annualized Rate, Annual Q4/Q4 -1.3% -0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 1.1% 2.5% 2.3% 0.9% 1.7% 2.3% 2.7% 2.8% -0.2% 1.7% 2.4%

Adjustable Rate Mortgage Share of Conventional Mortgage Applications (%) 9% 10% 9% 9% 7% 8% 9% 9% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 9%

April 10, 2015

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from March 31, 2015.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research Group

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating

Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend

on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided

in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results.

The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views

of Fannie Mae or its management.

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