Housing Forecast: April 2019

18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 2018 2019 2020

Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts 1,317 1,261 1,234 1,185 1,221 1,203 1,267 1,280 1,287 1,288 1,289 1,288 1,242 1,243 1,288

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 889 896 877 828 879 850 902 926 934 937 939 940 871 889 938

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 2.6% 2.1% 5.4%

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 428 365 357 357 342 353 365 354 353 351 350 348 372 354 351

New Single-Family Home Sales 656 633 605 584 640 631 634 642 651 661 663 664 619 637 660

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 1.0% 2.9% 3.6%

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops) 5,507 5,407 5,307 5,143 5,208 5,305 5,400 5,446 5,449 5,454 5,457 5,459 5,340 5,340 5,454

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year -3.1% 0.0% 2.1%

Total Home Sales (New + Existing) 6,163 6,039 5,912 5,727 5,848 5,936 6,034 6,088 6,100 6,115 6,120 6,123 5,959 5,977 6,115

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year -2.7% 0.3% 2.3%

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New 331 314 326 320 345 327 339 333 360 339 350 343 326 336 348

Median Total Existing 244 266 264 256 254 276 275 267 265 287 284 274 259 268 278

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (% Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 7.4% 6.8% 6.5% 5.7% 3.8% 4.2% 4.1% 4.6% 4.6% 3.9% 3.5% 2.9% 5.7% 4.6% 2.9%

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.5 4.2 4.1

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.7

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations 374 447 419 363 331 460 435 396 339 460 454 407 1,602 1,622 1,660

 Purchase 227 335 319 266 226 331 330 289 235 356 349 302 1,147 1,176 1,242

 Refinance 147 111 100 97 105 129 105 106 103 104 105 106 456 446 418

Refinance Share (%) 39% 25% 24% 27% 32% 28% 24% 27% 30% 23% 23% 26% 28% 27% 25%

April 10, 2019

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from March 29, 2019.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating 

Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend 

on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided 

in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. 

The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views 

of Fannie Mae or its management.

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