`

Housing Forecast: May 2022

21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 2021 2022 2023

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,599 1,588 1,562 1,670 1,753 1,666 1,540 1,433 1,370 1,314 1,260 1,212 1,597 1,598 1,289

 Percent Change: YoY 15.8 0.1 -19.4

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 1,156 1,107 1,096 1,166 1,196 1,148 1,056 984 926 887 864 836 1,126 1,096 878

 Percent Change: YoY 13.6 -2.6 -19.9

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 443 482 465 503 557 519 484 449 443 426 396 376 472 502 410

 Percent Change: YoY 21.2 6.5 -18.3

 Total Home Sales 7,183 6,687 6,766 6,967 6,878 6,102 5,833 5,685 5,553 5,445 5,372 5,289 6,891 6,124 5,415

 Percent Change: YoY 6.6 -11.1 -11.6

 New Single-Family 896 737 699 764 814 781 744 701 686 675 658 641 771 760 665

 Percent Change: YoY -6.2 -1.4 -12.5

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 6,287 5,950 6,067 6,203 6,063 5,321 5,088 4,984 4,867 4,769 4,714 4,648 6,120 5,364 4,749

 Percent Change: YoY 8.4 -12.4 -11.5

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 Fannie Mae HPI 12.9 17.3 19.3 19.1 20.0 15.9 12.9 10.8 6.5 5.4 4.3 3.2 19.1 10.8 3.2

Percent: Quarterly Avg, Annual Avg

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.8 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 3.0 4.8 5.0

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.9 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 2.6 3.8 4.4

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 1,240 1,123 1,103 1,014 743 729 643 580 444 624 619 565 4,480 2,695 2,253

 Purchase 368 503 519 484 385 545 520 448 335 505 488 429 1,875 1,898 1,758

 Refinance 871 620 584 530 359 184 123 132 109 119 131 135 2,606 797 494

 Refinance Share (Percent) 70 55 53 52 48 25 19 23 25 19 21 24 58 30 22

 --------------- 2021 --------------- --------------- 2022 --------------- --------------- 2023 ---------------

May 10, 2022

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from April 29, 2022; all other forecasts are based on the date above.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: The Fannie Mae HPI forecast is updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's 

business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although 

the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, 

current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, 

forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.