Presented to:

By:Date:

FedeAdm

NextGen Environmental Management System

Goals and Targets Analysis Status Update

Spring 2014 REDAC

Chris Dorbian, AEE-400

March 25, 2014
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Contents1. Refresher: Approach  Initial 2. Spring Rerun3. Future Analysis Improvements4. Questions
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Goals and Targets Background

• Aviation Environmental and 

Energy (E&E) Goals

– U.S. Climate Action Plan, E&E Policy 

Statement

– Noise, air quality, climate, and 

energy

• “Goals and Targets Analysis” 

– Forecasting progress against FAA 

performance goals

– NextGen EMS: “Check” phase– “System Improvements” scenario 

considers improvements from operations, technology, and alternative fuels

FAA GoalCategory

FAA Performan

Climate Carbon neutra

2020, relative 

level

Energy:AlternativeFuels

1 billion gallonfuel used by av

Energy:Energy‐Efficiency

Annual reduct

2000 level and 

expressed colle

business plan a

Noise Less than 300,

to “significant 2018

Air Quality 50% reduction

2018,relative t

* Goals are subject to revision basstrategic priorities
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Approach: Forecast

• Base year activity: Common Operations Database (CO

derived record of flight activity in 2010

– Derived from Traffic Flow Management System (TFMS) archives

• Future year activity out to 2025: research-only version 

FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF-M), FAA’s official forwhich is updated annually

Base Year (2010)

Flight Activity

(COD)

Raw fore

1. Flights p

in‐servic

2. Flights p

unspecifdeploye

Growth and Retirement Process

Source Forecasts

(TAF‐M, CAEP)

Apply growth

rates and retire

aircraft out to

2025
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Approach: Modeling

• Re-packaged version of Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AE

and Emissions Analysis Toolkit (NEAT)) used to generate baselscenario noise and emissions inventories

• Inventories were post-processed to account for benefits from air

engine improvements, operational improvements, and alternativ

Airframe and Engine

Improvements

No post‐2010 technology

In‐production (2010)

technology for 100% of

fleet growth andreplacement

Operational Improvements

Fuel and Emissions

No efficiency

improvement:

operational

efficiency fixed at

recent (2005‐2010)

levels

Noise

No changes to

operational

conditions

Alter

No 

te

conv

f

Baseline Scenario
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Alternative Fuels

Alternative fuels scenario assumptions detailed on next slide.

Airframe and Engine Improvements

In‐production technology plus, when

available, future technologies for 100% offleet growth and replacement on major

passenger flights.

The future technologies include:

‐ 2012 CLEEN Program technology

‐ Market‐driven technologies similar to

those of the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350

Operational Improvem

Fuel and Emissions

Unimpeded, laterally‐d

travel

Noise

Assumption of zero net 

)

Core

Improvement

(CORE/HIGH‐

MKT‐SVY)

LOW‐MKT‐SVY BLN‐50% BLN‐0% ZERO‐ALT‐FUEL C

Improvement Scenarios

Sensitivity Analyses
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Example Results – Climate

Analysis provides a ‘first cut’ at possible impacts of improvements consi

Hi

 Substant

fuels and MBM mea "gap fil

 Need to r

better unof meetin

Alternative 

(Volume in 

Historical Projected

FAA

Climate Goal

90

100110120130140

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Life‐Cycle

CO2

Equivalent

Emissions

Percent of

2005 level

Airframe and Engine

Improvements

Operational

Improvements

Market ‘High’

Billion‐Gallon Scenario with

varied LC CO2 emissions

Market ‘Low’

Year

Market 

‘Low’

2018 n/a 2020 2,854 • In 2018, quantity of 

gallons, while emiss

• In 2020, quantity of 

content is held cons
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Contents1. Refresher: Approach  Initial 2. Spring Rerun3. Future Analysis Improvements4. Questions
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Rerun Improvements (1)

• Transition from AEDT NEAT to AEDT 2b

– Using analysis to assist AEDT2b assessment– Provides runtime performance improvement; BADA4– Using Beta 7 release

• Updated TAF-M

– Latest release from APO– More granular data (further potential for calculating fuel effic

metrics)

– International traffic (compare to CAEP Trends Assessment)

• Extend analysis timeframe

– Can run baseline out to duration of TAF-M (2040)– Considering longer timeframes
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Rerun Improvements (2)

• Update Technology Assumptions

– Georgia Tech updating EDS Assessment of CLEEN Techno

(PARTNER Project 36) in April

– Integrate CLEEN and non-CLEEN (e.g., NASA) technologie

future aircraft

– Accounting for performance (fuel, NOx, and noise) and Entr

Service

– Low-to-high (e.g., realistic, optimistic) scenarios

• Operations assumptions

– Leverage existing Nextgen system-wide modeling as a scen– Side task: bottom-up estimation of benefits of operational 

improvements (see next slide)

• Assess air quality health impacts
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Rerun Improvements (3)
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Current Progress

• Reboot forecasting process• End-to-end AEDT 2b testing (exercise all 

pieces of model we need)

• Scrutinize TAF-M update• Execute AEDT2b run (baseline; chorded 

for Air Quality, normally “modal”)

• Scrutinize baseline results• Apply system improvements (first take 

critical look at CLEEN data)

• Scrutinize improvement scenario results 

(analysis, comparisons, etc.)

• Assess Air Quality impacts• Documentation
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Contents1. Refresher: Approach  Initial 2. Spring Rerun3. Future Analysis Improvements4. Questions
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Future Analysis Improvemen

• Extend analysis timeframe

– 2040 at a minimum, ideally 2050 – examining TAF extension to – Explore connection to APMT-E for AC retirements

• Expand improvement scenarios

– New aircraft configurations out to 2050 – leverage work of NAS– Mission specification changes (i.e., PARTNER Project 43 led b

• Operational Improvement changes:

– Automate derivation of efficiency factor– Radar-based modeling path  incorporate advanced operation

(e.g., Cruise Altitude/Speed Optimization)

• Comparison to CAEP Trends Assessment (TAF-M int

CAEP at a “route-group” level)

• Use ANG-5 SWAC outputs to inform delay growth• General Aviation / military noise sensitivity• Leverage alt fuels work (e.g., Alternative Fuels Transp

Analysis Tool)

• Align with 2015 US Climate Action Plan needs (i.e., sh

analysis to meet requirements, e.g., int’l. focus, 2050, 
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Contents1. Refresher: Approach  Initial 2. Spring Rerun3. Future Analysis Improvements4. Questions
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Backup Slides
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Results – Energy-Efficiency

Historical

D2025 Goal

6080

100120140

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Fuel Mass

Consumed

per Nautical

Mile Flown

Percent of

2005 level

Carbon‐NeutralGrowth ScenarioBaselineScenario

2018

Airframe and

Engine

Improvements

 Initial 

goal remeasuconsid

 Saving

Fuels Improvbe vis

 Study 

by avabetter producperfor(worserather in figu

Analysis provides a ‘first cut’ at possible impacts of considered improvem

ImprovementScenarioBaselineScenario
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Results – Noise

Hig

 Initial analysis in

goal is achievab

 Differences betw

Inventory and B

1. Use of 22. Operatio3. Improved 

rate data

 Analysis assum

density based o

 Changes in ope

such as new runare not considereduce exposur

Analysis provides a ‘first cut’ at possible impacts of improvements consi

Historical

D2025 Goal

0

100200300400500600

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Population

exposure

to

65 dB DNL

Thousands

2018

Airframe and Engine

Improvements**

* Exposure reflects 2010 Census population densities throughout the analysis period** Operational improvements were assumed to have zero net effect, and the effect of alternative fuels was assumed to be negligibleNote: The nearly constant exposure level of the Core Improvement Scenario (2018-2025) is a derived result rather than an assumption of the Study methodology

*

D2025 Inventory

(MAGENTA & AEDT)