Federal Aviation 

Administration

2013 Commercial 

Space Transportation 

Forecasts

May 2013

FAA Commercial Space Transportation (AST) 

and the Commercial Space Transportation 

Advisory Committee (COMSTAC)

2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts

• i •

About the FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation

The Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation 

(FAA AST) licenses and regulates U.S. commercial space launch and reentry 

activity, as well as the operation of non-federal launch and reentry sites, as 

authorized by Executive Order 12465 and Title 51 United States Code, Subtitle 

V, Chapter 509 (formerly the Commercial Space Launch Act). FAA AST’s mission 

is to ensure public health and safety and the safety of property while protecting 

the national security and foreign policy interests of the United States during 

commercial launch and reentry operations. In addition, FAA AST is directed to 

encourage, facilitate, and promote commercial space launches and reentries. 

Additional information concerning commercial space transportation can be 

found on FAA AST’s website: 

http://www.faa.gov/go/ast

Cover: The Orbital Sciences Corporation’s Antares rocket is seen as it launches 

from Pad-0A of the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport at the NASA Wallops Flight 

Facility in Virginia, Sunday, April 21, 2013. 

Image Credit: NASA/Bill Ingalls

NOTICE

Use of trade names or names of manufacturers in this document does not

constitute an official endorsement of such products or manufacturers, either expressed 

or implied, by the Federal Aviation Administration.
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• ii • 

Table of Contents

Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

COMSTAC 2013 Commercial Geosyn

Demand Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

HISTORY OF THE REPORT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

FORECAST METHODOLOGY  

COMSTAC COMMERCIAL GSO LAUNCH DEMAND FORECAST RESULTS. . . . . . . 9

Addressable vs. Unaddressable. 

Mass Classes. .

Dual-Manifesting. .

Near-Term Demand Forecast. .

Comparison with Previous COMSTAC Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

COMSTAC DEMAND PROJECTION VS. ACTUAL LAUNCHES REALIZED . . . . . . . 16

Factors That Affect Satellite Launch Realization. .

Projecting Actual Satellites Launched Using a Realization Factor. . . . . . . . . . . 17

FACTORS THAT MAY AFFECT FUTURE DEMAND. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Market Segments. .

Impact of Hosted Payloads on the Commercial Satellite Industry . . . . . . . . . . . 22

Launch Service Providers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

Cooperation and Partnerships. .

Regulatory Environment. .

Financial Markets. .

Space Insurance. .

SUPPLEMENTARY QUESTIONNAIRE RESULTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

2013 COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION FORECAS

NON-GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBITS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Report Purpose and Methodology. .

Commercial NGSO Launch Industry Sectors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

Report

NGSO Payload Market Segments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Commercial Telecommunication Satellites. .

Commercial Remote Sensing Satellites. .

Commercial Cargo and Crew Transportation Services. .

Other Commercially Launched Satellites . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62

Technology Test and Demonstration Launches. .

Micr

Saellite and Launch Forecast Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

Risk Factor That 

Financial Uncertainty. .

Political Uncertainty. .

Technical Uncertainty. .
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts

• iii •

List of Table

Table 1. Commercial Space Transportation Payload and Launch Forecasts. 

Table 2. Forecast Commercial GSO Satellite and Launch Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Table 3. 2013 GSO Forecast Team. 

Table 4. Addressable and Unaddressable Satellites Since 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Table 5. Satellite Mass Class Categorization. .

Table 6. Total Satellite Mass Launched per Year and Average Mass per Satellite. .

Table 7. Trends in Satellite Mass Class Distribution. .

Table 8. Commercial GSO Satellite Near-Term Manifest. .

Table 9. ITAR-free Satellites. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

Table 10. Survey Questionnaire Summary. .

Table 11. Near-Term NGSO Manifest of Identified Primary Payloads . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

Table 12. Narrowband Systems. .

Table 13. Wideband Systems. .

Table 14. Broadband Systems. .

Table 15. FCC Telecommunication Licenses. .

Table 16. Commercial Telecommunications Satellite Systems’ Design Life. .

Table 17. NOAA Remote Sensing Licenses. .

Table 18. Commercial Remote Sensing Systems. .

Table 19. NASA Commercial Crew and Cargo Awards. .

Table 20. Small Satellite Mass Classes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67

Table 21. Micro and Smaller Satellites Launch in 2003-2012. .

Table 22. Payload and Launch Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71

Table 23. Distribution of Payload Masses in Near-Term Manifest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73

Table 24. Distribution of Launches among Market Segments. .

Table 25. Historical Addressable Commercial GSO Satellites Launched. . . . . . . . . . . . 78

Table 26. Historical Unaddressable Commercial GSO Satellites Launched  .

Table 27. Historical Payloads and Launches. .

Table 28. Historical NGSO Payload and Launch Activities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87

Table 29. Mass Classes for GSO and NGSO Payloads. .

Table 30. Secondary NGSO Payloads Launched Commercially. .

Appendix 1:st

Appendix 2: Histori

Appendix : Ve

Appendias

Appen 5: s

com

Appenix 6
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• iv • 

List of Figure

Figure 1. Combined 2013 GSO and NGSO Historical Launches and 

Launch Forecasts. 

Figure 2. 2013 GSO Historical Launches and Launch Forecast. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

Figure 3. Projected NGSO Launches from 2013-2022. 

Figure 4. Forecast Commercial GSO Satellite and Launch Demand. 

Figure 5. Addressable and Unaddressable Satellites since 2004. 

Figure 6. Total Satellite Mass Launched per Year and Average Mass per Satellite. .

Figure 7. Trends in Satellite Mass Class Distribution. .

Figure 8. Dual Manifesting and Launch Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Figure 9. Comparison of Annual Forecasts: 2004-2013. .

Figure 10. Realization Factor. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Figure 11. Distribution of Forecasted Launched by Payload Segment and 

Vehicle Size . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

Figure 12. Commercial NGSO Launch History and Projected Launch Plans. .

Figure 13. Commercial Telecommunications Launch History and 

Projected Launch Plans. .

Figure 14. Publicly Reported Globalstar Annual Revenue. .

Figure 15. Publicly Reported Iridium Annual Revenue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44

Figure 16. Publicly Reported ORBCOMM Annual Revenue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

Figure 17. Commercial Remote Sensing Launch History and Projected Launch Plans. .

Figure 18. Commercial Cargo and Crew Transportation Services Launch History and 

Projected Launch Plans. .

Figure 19. Forecast of COTS, CRS. and Commercial Crew Missions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56

Figure 20. Other Commercially Launched Satellites Launch History and 

Projected Launch Plans. .

Figure 21. Technology Test and Demonstration Launch History and 

Projected Launch Plans. .

Figure 22. Microsatellites and Nanosatellites Launched in 2003-2012. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68

Figure 23. Microsatellites and Nanosatellites Launched by Vehicle, 2003-2012. .

Figure 24. Payload Projections. .

Figure 25. Launch Projections. .

Figure 26. Launch Vehicle Projections. .
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts

• 1 •

Executive

The Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation 

(FAA AST) and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee 

(COMSTAC) have prepared forecasts of global demand for commercial space 

launch services for the 10-year period from 2013 through 2022. 

The 2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts report is in two sections: 

•	 The COMSTAC 2013 Commercial Geosynchronous Orbit (GSO) Launch 

Demand Forecast, which projects demand for commercial satellites that 

operate in GSO and the resulting commercial launch demand to GSO; and 

•	 The FAA’s 2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for NonGeosynchronous Orbits (NGSO), which projects commercial launch demand 

for satellites to NGSO, such as low Earth orbit (LEO), medium Earth orbit 

(MEO), elliptical (ELI) orbits, and external (EXT) orbits beyond the Earth. 

Together, the COMSTAC and FAA forecasts project an average annual demand 

of 31.2 commercial space launches worldwide from 2013 through 2022, up 

from 29.1 launches in the 2012 forecasts. The reports project an average of 

18.2 commercial GSO launches and 13.0 NGSO launches for 2013 through 

2022. Figure 1 shows the combined 2013 GSO and NGSO Historical Launches 

and Launch Forecast. Table 1 shows the number of payloads and launches 

projected from 2013 through 2022. 

It is important to distinguish between forecast demand and the number of 

satellites actually launched. Launch vehicle and satellite programs are complex, 

and susceptible to delays, which generally makes the forecast demand for 

launches the upper limit of actual launches in the near-term forecast.

Figure 1. Combined 2013 GSO and NGSO Historical Launches and Launch Forecasts

0

5

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35

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45

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Launches

2013 GSO Launch Forecast GSO Launch Actual

NGSO 

Launch 

Actual

2013 NGSO Launch Forecast
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 2 • 

The GSO market remains stable with a projected demand of 22.8 satellites per 

year, up slightly from last year’s projection of 21.2 satellites per year. Figure 2 

shows the 2013 GSO Historical Launches and Launch Forecast. Forty percent of 

GSO satellites projected to launch from 2013 to 2022, are in the heaviest mass 

class (above 5,400 kilograms). At the same time, 13 percent of the satellites 

in the same period are in the lowest mass class (below 2,500 kilograms). In 

2013, unaddressable launches remained at the comparably high level – launch 

contracts that were not open to international (including U.S.) competition – as 

Chinese and Russian government-owned aerospace companies routinely 

package satellites, launches, and financing together. The satellite services 

market is generally robust, and new launch vehicle options will affect the 

dynamics of the launch industry. Operators are cautious about the impact of 

the economy on their plans but are generally satisfied with satellite and launch 

vehicle offerings.

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total Avg

Payloads

GSO Forecast (COMSTAC) 20 23 28 22 21 22 22 23 23 24 228 22.8

NGSO Forecast (FAA) 74 32 41 45 44 23 20 20 19 19 337 33.7

Total Satellites 94 55 69 67 65 45 42 43 42 43 565 56.

Launche

GSO Medium-to-Heavy 16 18 23 17 17 17 18 18 19 19 182 18.2

NGSO Medium-to-Heavy 14 14 17 15 13 12 11 11 10 10 127 12.7

NGSO Small 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0.3

Total Launches 32 32 40 33 30 29 29 29 29 29 312 31

Table 1. Commercial Space Transportation Payload and Launch Forecasts

Figure 2. 2013 GSO Historical Launches and Launch Forecast

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Number per Year

GSO Satellites Actual

GSO Launch Actual GSO Launch Forecast

GSO Satellite Forecast
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts

• 3 •

For NGSO, from 2013 to 2022, 337 payloads are projected to launch 

commercially on 130 launches. The NGSO market projects an average of 

13.0 launches per year from 2013 to 2022, which is only slightly up from last 

year’s average of 12.8 launches. Figure 3 shows the projected NGSO launches 

for the next 10 years. The launch demand peaks in 2015, with 17 launches, 

due to the deployment of Iridium, Globalstar, and DMCii payloads, frequent 

commercial crew and cargo launches to the ISS, and the start of test flights for 

the commercial crew program. For the telecommunications sector, a drop in 

launch demand is expected after 2017, when telecommunication constellations, 

including Iridium, finish deployment, while commercial remote sensing and 

test and demonstration launches remain stable. Almost 60 percent (74) of the 

launches within the forecast are for commercial cargo and crew services to the 

ISS. Some of these launches will take place on vehicles that are not yet proven 

and partly rely on government funding that is subject to annual appropriations, 

therefore, technical or financial issues could delay ISS resupply launches.

For the last 10 years, there has been an average of 44 NGSO launches per 

year. Only 12 percent (approximately 5 launches per year) of these launches 

were commercial. The forecast predicts a more than doubling of the annual 

commercial NGSO launch numbers from historical annual averages. This 

increase is due to cyclical redeployment of commercial telecommunication 

constellations and commercial resupply of the ISS.

New commercial launch services providers such as SpaceX, with its Falcon 9 

and Falcon Heavy, and Orbital Sciences Corp., with its Antares, are developing 

and demonstrating their vehicle capabilities for application to commercial 

and government markets. The Antares vehicle made its maiden flight in 

April. Lockheed Martin has stated its intentions to position the Atlas V more 

competitively in the commercial market. 

Figure 3. Projected NGSO Launches from 2013-2022

0

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4

6

8

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12

14

16

18

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Launches

Commercial Telecommunications

Commercial Remote Sensing

Commercial Cargo and Crew 

Transportation Services

Other Commercially Launched Satellites

Technology Test and Demonstration
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 4 •

New vehicles expected to become available within the next two to three years 

include Athena (U.S.), Epsilon (Japan), and Long March 6 (China). These 

vehicles are designed to launch several micro- and small-class payloads at a 

time and primarily aimed at the NGSO market. The per-kilogram cost to NGSO 

for a small-class launch vehicle tends to be higher than that for a larger capacity 

vehicle, which may make these new small-class launch vehicles too expensive 

for many micro-satellite customers. Therefore, many small NGSO satellites 

may go as piggyback payloads on larger vehicles leaving small-class launch 

vehicles with the smaller market of time-critical delivery of payloads to orbit. 

The two sections that follow – GSO and NGSO – provide detailed information on 

the two market segments.
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast

• 5 •

COMSTAC 2013 COMMERCIAL GEOSYNCHR

ORBIT LAUNCH DEMAND FO

EXECUTIVE S

The Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) for the 

Office of Commercial Space Transportation of the Federal Aviation Administration 

(FAA AST) compiled the 2013 Commercial Geosynchronous Orbit (GSO) Launch 

Demand Forecast (the Report). This year’s Report is the 21st annual forecast of 

global demand for commercial GSO satellites and launches addressable by the 

U.S. space launch industry—that is, launches open to internationally competitive 

(including U.S.) launch service procurement—over the next 10 years. The Report 

provides a detailed analysis of satellites scheduled for launch in the next three 

years and a broader forecast of launch demand for the subsequent seven years. 

The Report is intended to assist FAA AST in resource planning for licensing and in 

efforts to foster commercial space launch capability in the United States.

The Report is updated annually, using inputs from commercial satellite operators 

and manufacturers and launch service providers. Both satellite and launch 

demand forecasts are included in the Report. The satellite demand is a forecast of 

the number of addressable commercial GSO satellites that operators expect will 

be launched. The launch demand is determined by the number of addressable 

satellites to be launched adjusted by the number of satellites projected to be 

launched together on a single launch vehicle, referred to in the Report as “dualmanifest” launches.

Figure 4 provides a summary of the forecast, showing annual projected satellites 

and launches. Table 2 provides the corresponding values, including the projected 

number of dual-manifested launches.

2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast

Figure 4. Forecast Commercial GSO Satellite and Launch Demand

0

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30

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Number of Satellites/Launches

2013 Satellite Demand Forecast

2013 Launch Demand Forecast
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 6 • 

The number of addressable satellites launched in 2012 rebounded from 2011, 

after having dropped for each of the previous three years. This increase came in 

spite of satellite delays and launch failures. The key findings of this report are:

• The 2013 COMSTAC GSO forecast projects 20 addressable commercial 

GSO satellites on 16 launches in 2013 and an annual average of 22.8 

satellites on 18.2 launches for the period from 2013 through 2022. This is up 

from last year’s forecast of 21.2 satellites and 16.3 launches per year.

• The number of unaddressable launches is increasing, as is average satellite 

mass.

• The satellite services market is generally robust, and new launch vehicle 

options will affect the dynamics of the launch industry.

• Operators are cautious about the impact of the economy on their plans but 

are generally satisfied with satellite and launch vehicle offerings.

It is important to distinguish between forecast demand and the number of 

satellites that are actually launched. Satellite programs, like most complex 

projects, are susceptible to delays, so the forecast demand is an upper limit 

on the number of satellites that may actually be launched. To account for these 

differences, the forecast team developed a “launch realization factor.” This 

factor is based on historical data comparing actual satellites launched and 

predicted satellite demand from previous Reports. This factor is then applied to 

the near-term forecast to provide a range of satellites reasonably expected to be 

launched. For example, while 20 satellites are projected to be launched in 2013, 

applying the realization factor adjusts this to a range of 16 to 20 satellites.

HISTORY OF THE R

In 1993, the U.S. Department of Transportation 

requested that COMSTAC annually prepare a 

commercial GSO satellite launch demand forecast 

to present the commercial space industry’s view 

of future space launch requirements. COMSTAC 

works with U.S. launch service providers, satellite 

manufacturers, and satellite service providers 

to develop the forecast. A Forecast Team of 

COMSTAC members and industry experts, listed in 

Table 3, compiled this year’s Report.

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total Average

Satellite Demand 20 23 28 22 21 22 22 23 23 24 228 22.8

Launch Demand 16 18 23 17 17 17 18 18 19 19 182 18.2

Dual Launch Demand 4 5 5 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 46 4.6

Table 2. Forecast Commercial GSO Satellite and Launch Demand

Forecast Team 

Member Affiliated Company

Alan Keisner Space Exploration

Technologies

Chitta Ratana Space Systems Loral

Chris Kunstadter XL Insuranc

Jozsef Lore The Boeing Company

Kate Maliga The Tauri Grou

Pete Stier Sea Launch

Rob Unverzagt The Aerospace Corporation

Veronica Johnson United Launch Alliance

Table 3. 2013 GSO Forecast Team
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast

• 7 •

One of the goals of FAA AST is to foster a healthy commercial space launch 

capability in the United States. In order to do this, FAA AST must understand the 

scope and trends of global commercial spaceflight demand. In addition, FAA 

AST must be able to plan for and allocate resources which may be necessary to 

carry out its responsibilities in licensing commercial U.S. space launches. This 

Report provides necessary data to FAA AST for these purposes.

FORECAST METHODO

The methodology for developing the forecast has remained consistent 

throughout its history. The Forecast Team, through FAA AST, requests projections 

of satellites to be launched over the next 10 years from global satellite operators, 

satellite manufacturers, and launch service providers. The Forecast Team sought 

input from global satellite operators, satellite manufacturers and launch service 

providers for a projection of their organization’s launch plans and a broad, 

industry-wide estimate of total GSO launches. In addition, input was sought on a 

variety of factors that might affect satellite launch demand in the future.

This year, the following organizations responded with data used to develop the 

Report:

Satellite Operators:

• EchoStar*

• Hisdesat

• Inmarsat

• NewSat

• SingTel Optus

• Sirius XM* (also responded in 2012)

• SpaceCom

• Star One

Satellite Manufacturers:

• Boeing* (also responded in 2012)

• SSL* (also responded in 2012)

Launch Service Providers

• Arianespace* (also responded in 2012)

• MHI

• Sea Launch* (also responded in 2012)

• SpaceX* (also responded in 2012)

* = U.S. company or company with significant U.S. operations
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 8 • 

The Forecast Team, using input from global satellite operators, satellite 

manufacturers and launch service providers, public sources (e.g., satellite 

operator and launch provider web sites), and the team’s own industry 

knowledge, develops the near-term forecast, covering the first three years 

(2013–2015) of the 10-year forecast period. The combined comprehensive 

inputs as well as the above sources are then used to generate the long-term 

demand forecast from 2016 to 2022.

Other factors that were considered in developing the forecast include:

• Publicly-announced satellite and launch contracts,

• Projected planned and replenishment missions,

• Growth in demand from new and existing services and applications,

• Availability of financing and insurance,

• Potential consolidation among operators, and

• New launch vehicle capabilities.

The production cycle for today’s satellite models is typically two to three years, 

but it can be longer for heavier or more complex satellites. Orders within a twoto three-year horizon are thus generally reliable. Satellite orders more than three 

years out can be difficult to identify, as many of these programs are in early 

stages of planning or procurement. Beyond five years, new markets and new 

uses of satellite technology may emerge that are currently unanticipated.
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast

• 9 •

COMSTAC COMMERCIAL GSO LAUNCH DE

FORECAST RES

Addressable vs. Unaddressab

To clarify which launch opportunities can be “addressed” by U.S. launch 

providers, satellite launches are classified as either “addressable” or 

“unaddressable.” Addressable, in the context of this Report, is defined 

as commercial GSO satellite launches that are open to an internationally 

competitive (including U.S.) launch service procurement process. Satellites 

and launches bundled in government-to-government deals, launches captive 

to particular launch service providers, and others that are not internationally 

competed are classified as unaddressable.

The number of unaddressable launches continued at the same high rate as 

seen in the 2012 forecast, as the Chinese and Russian government-owned 

aerospace companies continued packaging satellites, launches, and financing 

for commercial satellite programs. This trend is expected to continue as 

Chinese, Russian, Indian, and Japanese satellite manufacturers pursue such 

contracts on a strategic, non-competitive basis. Figure 5 and Table 4 compare 

the numbers of addressable and unaddressable satellites since 2004.

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Addressable 13 16 19 17 23 22 20 15 21 20

Unaddressable 2 3 4 4 3 2 3 10 8 8

Total 15 19 23 21 26 24 23 25 29 28

Table 4. Addressable and Unaddressable Satellites Since 2004

Figure 5. Addressable and Unaddressable Satellites since 2004

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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Number of Satellites

Addressable Satellites

Unaddressable Satellites
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 10 • 

Mass Classes

One of the primary metrics for determining launch requirements is satellite 

mass. Mass classes based on ranges of satellite masses are used to analyze 

developments in satellite and launch demand. Four mass classes are currently 

used, as shown in Table 5.

The upper limit of the smallest mass class was increased in 2008 from 2,200 

kilograms to 2,500 kilograms. This adjustment captures the growth in mass 

of the smallest commercial GSO satellites currently being manufactured. As 

an example, Orbital’s GEOStar bus, which dominated the lower end of the 

mass scale in previous years, has recently been used for satellites in excess 

of 3,200 kilograms, which fall in the intermediate mass class range. Even with 

the increase in the upper limit of the smallest mass class in 2008, there were 

no launches of satellites in this class in 2011 and 2012. Furthermore, only one 

satellite in this class is projected to be launched in 2013, and none are projected 

in 2014. Unaddressable launches in this class abound, with many medium class 

satellites from Russia and India being launched from 2011 through 2013.

Likewise, the heaviest mass class continues to dominate, with 48 percent 

of satellites launched in 2012 falling into this mass class. Nearly half of the 

satellites projected for launch from 2013 through 2015 are in the extra-heavy 

class.

Table 6 and Figure 6 show the total mass launched per year and the average 

mass per satellite launched. The total mass launched per year correlates 

with the number of satellites launched per year, as does the total number of 

transponders. The average mass of satellites launched in the past nine years 

was over 4,000 kilograms, reaching a new high in 2012. The average mass in 

2013 is expected to increase even further, with a shift to heavier, higher power 

satellites. The 20 satellites scheduled for launch in 2013 have a mass of 99,133 

kilograms, for an expected average satellite mass of 4,957 kilograms.

Actual Forecast

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total Mass Launched 

per Year (kg) 54,867 71,441 78,988 68,114 99,601 94,670 85,681 67,554 103,595 99,133 114,535 122,633

Average Mass per 

Satellite (kg) 4,221 4,465 4,157 4,007 4,330 4,303 4,284 4,504 4,933 4,957 4,980 4,380

Table 6. Total Satellite Mass Launched per Year and Average Mass per Satellite

Class Separated Mass Representative Satellite Bus Mode

Medium Below 2,500 kg 

(<5,510 lbm)

Lockheed Martin A-2100, Orbital GEOStar, 

Boeing BSS-702, SSL-1300

Intermediate 2,500 - 4,200 kg 

(5,510 - 9,260 lbm)

A-2100, IAI Amos, MELCO DS-2000, 

GEOStar, SSL-1300, Thales SB-4000

Heavy 4,200 - 5,400 kg 

(9,260 - 11,905 lbm)

Astrium ES-3000, BSS-702, IAI Amos, A-2100, 

DS-2000, GEOStar, SSL-1300, SB-4000

Extra Heavy Above 5,400 kg 

(>11,905 lbm)

ES-3000, BSS-702, A-2100, SSL-1300, 

SB-4000

Table 5. Satellite Mass Class Categorization
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast

• 11 •

One technical development that may affect the trend towards increasing satellite 

mass is the development of satellites using exclusively electric propulsion rather 

than chemical propulsion (such as liquid apogee motors) for orbit-raising. By 

reducing the mass of propellant used for orbit-raising, which in many cases is 

greater than the dry mass of the satellite, the satellite can carry a significantly 

larger payload. Alternatively, by keeping the satellite mass low, two satellites, 

each with the payload capacity of a large satellite, can be launched together.

Using electric propulsion increases the time required for orbit-raising - months 

rather than days. Nonetheless, in many cases, the benefits of the mass and 

launch cost savings outweigh the delay in achieving final orbital position.

In 2012, Boeing signed a contract jointly procured by Asia Broadcast Satellite 

(ABS) and Satmex for four all-electric design 702SP satellites. Since then, 

Astrium, CAST (China), Lockheed Martin, OHB, Orbital, SSL, and Thales have all 

indicated they already have – or will offer – that technology to their customers in 

the near future.

Table 7 and Figure 7 show the trends in satellite mass class distribution.

Actual Forecast Total 

2013 

to 

2022

Avg. 

2013 

to 

2022

% of 

Total 

2013 

to 

2004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

2022

Above 5,400 kg 3 6 2 3 5 8 7 3 10 12 11 12 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 91 9.1 40%

4,201 to 5,400 kg 4 4 10 5 8 2 4 6 5 1 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 46 4.6 20%

2,500 to 4,200 kg 4 3 6 8 7 9 5 6 6 6 8 8 6 5 6 5 6 6 6 62 6.2 27%

Below 2,500 kg 2 3 1 1 3 3 4 0 0 1 0 4 3 3 3 4 4 3 4 29 2.9 13%

Total 13 16 19 17 23 22 20 15 21 20 23 28 22 21 22 22 23 23 24 228 22.8 100

Table 7. Trends in Satellite Mass Class Distribution

Figure 6. Total Satellite Mass Launched per Year and Average Mass per Satellite

Total Mass Launched per Year (kg)

Average Mass per Satellite (kg)
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 12 • 

Dual-Manifesting

Several launch services providers are capable of lofting two satellites 

simultaneously into geosynchronous transfer orbit (GTO). The demand analysis 

for launch vehicles must take into consideration this capability. Care must be 

taken in that inclusion into the forecast must be based upon the addressability 

of the satellites flown. A vehicle which has the launch services competitively 

procured for both satellites is included in the forecast and counted as dual 

launch. A vehicle which has only one of the two satellite launch services 

contracts competitively procured is also included in the forecast but counted 

as a single launch. A vehicle which has the launch services of both satellites 

directed to a specific launch service provider is not counted in the forecast as 

such services are not competitively procured.

Arianespace’s Ariane 5 vehicle has been lofting dual-manifested, competitivelyprocured, commercial launch services missions for over 10 years. The Forecast 

Team determined the near-term number of dual manifest launches on Ariane 

5 by assessing the existing backlog of satellites through 2015. Arianespace 

has stated it plans to launch five dual-manifested missions in 2013, up to six 

in 2014, and, due to commitments for European government missions for ESA 

and the European Commission (Galileo, ATV, and the Bepi Columbo mission to 

Mercury), three in 2015. International Launch Services with its Proton M vehicle 

has flown several dual-manifested missions, typically with at least one Russianbuilt (unaddressable) satellite. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 has two orders to fly in dual 

configuration, pairing Boeing-built electric propulsion satellites for ABS and 

Satmex.

Figure 7. Trends in Satellite Mass Class Distribution

Below 2,500 kg 

2,500 to 4,200 kg

4,201 to 5,400 kg

Above 5,400 kg 
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast

• 13 •

Dual-manifesting for two large satellites together is not yet possible. 

Arianespace typically attempts to match satellites that together have a total 

mass approaching 10,000 kilograms. Arianespace is investing in the Ariane 5 

Mid-life Evolution program which plans to raise the operational capability by 10 

percent or more by 2018, thus enabling it to carry two large satellites. The debut 

of SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy launch vehicle will also permit dual manifesting of 

larger satellites. The introduction of solar electric propulsion technology over 

time however may partially reverse the trend of growth in overall satellite mass, 

allowing more dual manifesting on existing launch vehicles.

Figure 8 presents the 2013 satellite and launch demand forecast through 2022 

as well as actual launch statistics for 2004 through 2012.

Figure 8. Dual Manifesting and Launch Demand

Dual-manifest Launches Single-manifest Launches (including dual-manifested 

addressable + unaddressable)

Satellites
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 14 • 

Near-Term Demand Forecast

Table 8 shows the satellites projected to be launched in the next three years. 

The projections for 2013 to 2015 show an increase in the number of satellites 

to be launched over the previous three years (2010-2012). As noted earlier, 

the trend is to build heavier, more capable satellites; nearly 50 percent of the 

satellites to be launched in the next three years are in the heaviest mass class. 

2013 2014 2015

Total 20 23 28

Below 2,500 kg 1 0 4

DM Insat 3D Ariane 5 DM

DM

DM

DM

ABS 2A

ABS 3A

F4

Satmex 7

Falcon 9

Falcon 9

Falcon 9

Falcon 9

2,500 - 4,200 kg 6 8 8

DM

DM

DM

Azersat 1

GSAT 7

Optus 10

SES 8

Thaicom 6

AMOS 4

Ariane 5

Ariane 5

Ariane 5

Falcon 9

Falcon 9

Land Launch

DM

DM

DM

DM

DM

DM

Amazonas 4A

ARSAT 1

GSAT 11

GSAT 16

Hispasat AG1

Thor 7

Turksat 4A

Turksat 4B

Ariane 5

Ariane 5

Ariane 5

Ariane 5

Ariane 5

Ariane 5

Proton

Proton

DM

DM

DM

Turksat 5A

Arsat 2

GSAT 18

Amazonas 4B

Bulsatcom

Satellite TBD*

Satellite TBD*

Satellite TBD*

Ariane 5

Ariane 5

Ariane 5

Proton

Launch TBD

Launch TBD

Launch TBD

Launch TBD

4,201 - 5,400 kg 2 4 4

Anik G1

Eutelsat 3B

Proton

Proton

DM

DM

Eutelsat 9B

Sicral 2

Asiasat 6

Asiasat 8

Ariane 5

Ariane 5

Falcon 9

Falcon 9

Amos 6

Eutelsat 8WB

JCSAT 14

Satellite TBD*

Falcon 9

Launch TBD

Launch TBD

Launch TBD

Above 5,400 kg 11 11 12

DM

DM

DM

DM

DM

ABS 2

Alphasat

Amazonas 3

Astra 5B

Eutelsat 25B

Astra 2E

Inmarsat 5 F1

Satmex 8

SES 6

Sirius FM6

Intelsat 27

Ariane 5

Ariane 5

Ariane 5

Ariane 5

Ariane 5

Proton

Proton

Proton

Proton

Proton

Sea Launch

DM

DM

DM

DM

DM

DTV 14

DTV 15

Intelsat 30

Measat 3B

Star One C4

Astra 2G

Inmarsat 5 F2

Inmarsat 5 F3

Intelsat 31

Mexsat 1

Eutelsat 3B

Ariane 5

Ariane 5

Ariane 5

Ariane 5

Ariane 5

Proton

Proton 

Proton 

Proton

Proton

Sea Launch

DM

DM

DM

DM

DM

DM

DM

Arabsat 6E

BADR 7

Echostar 18

Jabiru 1

NBN 1A

NBN 1B

Satellite TBD*

SES 9

Mexsat 2

Satellite TBD*

Satellite TBD*

Satellite TBD*

Ariane 5

Ariane 5

Ariane 5

Ariane 5

Ariane 5

Ariane 5

Ariane 5

Falcon 9

Proton

Launch TBD

Launch TBD

Launch TBD

DM = Potential Dual-Manifested Satellites

* = Satellite proposed, not yet identified publicly

Table 8. Commercial GSO Satellite Near-Term Manifest
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast

• 15 •

Comparison with Previous COMSTAC Forecasts

The current forecast shows a slight increase over previous reports in average 

annual launches for the next 10 years. The average number of satellites for 

the forecast period was in a narrow range in the reports from 2004 to 2012—

between 20.5 and 21.8 satellites. The 2013 Report shows an increase in satellite 

activity from the 2012 Report, up by 1.6 satellites per year for the next 10 years 

with an average of 22.8.

The 2012 Report projected 23 satellites to be launched in 2012. The reduction to 

21 satellites actually launched in 2012 reflects:

• Satellite technical issues, which resulted in the need to rework several 

satellites awaiting launch;

• Changing business climate for several operators who encountered financial 

issues; and

• Reclassification of several launches as unaddressable.

Figure 9. Comparison of Annual Forecasts: 2004-2013

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2004200520062007200820092010

2011

20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Number of Satellites

2000 Forecast 2001 Forecast

2002 Forecast 2003 Forecast

2004 Forecast 2005 Forecast

2006 Forecast 2007 Forecast

2008 Forecast 2009 Forecast

2010 Forecast 2011 Forecast

2012 Forecast 2013 Forecast
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 16 • 

COMSTAC DEMAND PROJECTION VS. A

LAUNCHES REA

Factors That Affect Satellite Launch Realizati

The demand for satellite launches is typically larger than the number of satellites 

that will actually be launched in a year. Some factors that contribute to the 

difference between forecast and realized launches are:

• Satellite technical issues: Satellite manufacturers may have manufacturing, 

supplier, or component issues that delay the delivery of a satellite. Onground and in-orbit anomalies can affect the delivery of satellites under 

construction until fleet-wide issues (such as commonality of parts, 

processes, and systems) are resolved. Delays in delivery of spacecraft to 

the launch site then impact the scheduling of launches.

• Launch vehicle technical issues: Launch vehicle manufacturers and

launch service providers may have manufacturing, supplier, or component 

issues that cause launch delays. Recovery from launch anomalies and 

failures can also significantly affect launch schedules. Delays have a 

cascading effect on subsequent launches, and some missions have specific 

launch windows (such as science windows) that, if missed, may result in 

lengthy delays and manifest issues.

• Weather: Inclement weather, including ground winds, flight winds, cloud 

cover, lightning, and ocean currents often cause launch delays, though 

these are typically short-term (on the order of days).

• Range availability issues: The lack of launch range availability due to

prioritized government missions, schedule conflicts with other launch 

providers, launch site maintenance, and other range-related issues can 

cause launch delays.

• Dual-manifesting: Dual-manifesting requires that two satellites are delivered 

to the launch site on time. A delay on one satellite results in a launch delay 

for the other satellite and subsequent satellites. Payload compatibility issues 

(such as mass mismatch, technical differences, and differing orbit insertion 

requirements) can also cause delays.

• Business issues: Corporate reprioritization, changing strategies and

markets, and inability to obtain financing may delay or cancel satellite 

programs; however, this can make launch slots available for other 

customers.

• Regulatory issues: Export compliance, FCC or international licensing,

and frequency coordination can cause delays, launch vehicle shifts, and 

satellite program cancellations. U.S. government policy regarding satellite 

and launch vehicle export control can make it difficult for U.S. satellite 

manufacturers and launch vehicle operators to work with international 

customers.
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast

• 17 •

Projecting Actual Satellites Launched Using a Realization Fac

Over the history of this Report, the forecast demand for satellites and launches 

has almost always exceeded the number of satellites and launches actually 

accomplished in each of the first three years of a forecast period. To better 

estimate the number of near-term satellites that will be launched, the near-term 

demand is adjusted by a “realization factor.” This factor is derived by comparing 

forecast satellite launches with actual satellites launched in the five years prior to 

the current Report.

The range of satellite launches expected to be realized is calculated by 

multiplying the near-term forecast by the highest and lowest variations of 

forecast versus actual over the preceding five years. Since 1993, the actual 

number of satellites launched in the first year of the forecast was 58 percent 

to 100 percent of the forecast number, with an average of 78 percent. For the 

past five years, the range was 81 percent to 100 percent, with an average of 88 

percent. Based on this methodology, while 20 satellites are forecast for launch in 

2013, the expected realization for 2013 is 16 to 20 satellites.

The consistent overestimation illustrates the “bow-wave” effect of the forecast: 

survey respondents list satellites that were planned to be launched the previous 

year but slipped into the subsequent year, without compensating for the 

subsequent year’s satellite launches concurrently slipping forward.

The calculation becomes less precise for the second out-year. The forecast 

has almost always overestimated the actual launches two years hence. Since 

1993, the actual realization for the second out-year ranged from 45 percent 

to 105 percent, with an average of 75 percent. For the past five years, the 

range was 60 percent to 95 percent, with an average of 79 percent. Using the 

same methodology, while 23 satellites are forecast to be launched in 2014, the 

expected realization for 2014 is 14 to 22 satellites.

Since the launch realization factor was added to the Report in 2002, the actual 

number of satellites launched has usually fallen within the launch realization 

range, demonstrating the robustness of the realization factor methodology.

As shown in Figure 10, the 2012 report forecast 23 satellites for launch in 2012, 

with a realization range of 18 to 23 satellites. Twenty-one satellites were actually 

launched in 2012.
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 18 • 

FACTORS THAT MAY AFFECT FUTURE 

Many market, regulatory, and financial factors affect current and future demand 

for commercial GSO satellite launches, such as:

Demand for Satellite Services

Demand for satellite services continues to be strong in certain regions, led by 

substantial growth in Asia and solid growth in the Middle East, Central Asia, and 

South America, despite uncertain economic environments in the United States 

and Europe. This growth can be attributed to:

• Increased globalization and interconnectivity of modern enterprise 

communications, especially the expansion into emerging markets that lack a 

fiber-based infrastructure;

• Improved economic standards creating an expanded middle class with 

available discretionary incomes;

• Adoption of common practices and standards;

• Increased deregulation of the telecommunications sector and the use of new 

frequencies;

• Development of cost-effective personal mobile voice, data, and broadband 

devices;

• Consumer demand for data-rich content, such as UltraHD and 3D TV, that 

will require more bandwidth;

• Increased travel and cultural integration;

• Adoption of commercial solutions by governments to supplement defense 

and military capabilities; and

• Revolution in software applications, creating new information portals for 

consumers.

Figure 10. Realization Factor

Historical First Year Satellite Demand Forecast

Actual Satellites Launched

2013 Satellite Demand Forecast

Realization Factor
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast

• 19 •

Globalization

Growth in telecommunications and broadcasting markets is being driven by an 

increasing number of multi-national companies with office hubs and distribution 

networks spread across the world. This enables companies to operate globally 

while being perceived as an integral part of the local economy. Companies 

recruit and train personnel to use modern communications tools such as social 

media, internet marketing, and wireless devices, overcoming the limits of 

national borders and cultural boundaries.

Content distribution is more accessible and less expensive, enabling consumers 

and enterprises to fully integrate, share similar experiences, and improve 

productivity and responsiveness to customer needs and orders on a global 

basis. The rapid explosion of affordable information delivery to end-consumers, 

through satellite dishes, cable head-ends, fiber-to-the-curb, and wireless 

broadband, enabled a significant expansion of content choices while permitting 

two-way interactivity on an unprecedented scale. This drives significant demand 

for more bandwidth availability, increasing the need for satellite-based and 

ground-based delivery systems.

Deregulation

Many countries are experiencing economic advantages and growth in 

consumer classes by opening their telecommunications markets to domestic 

and foreign competition. In Asia, Africa, and South America, new competitive 

sectors in telephone, TV broadcasting, and Internet are emerging, replacing 

state-controlled service monopolies. Many countries are now securing rights to 

bandwidth by establishing national regulators, as well as through international 

regulators such as the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), to exercise 

rights to frequency spectrum and orbital slots for delivery of satellite services. 

New operators are entering the marketplace, such as Hong Kong direct-tohome (DTH) operator Asia Broadcast Satellite, Abu Dhabi DTH operator Yahsat,

Azerbaijan FSS operator Azerspace, Bulgarian DTH operator Bulsatcom, and 

U.S.-Swedish mobile broadband operator OverHorizon. India is contemplating 

relaxation of its highly regulated satellite market to allow increased satellite 

services and content from foreign satellite operators. It is anticipated that over 

the next 10 years, relaxed regulation in the Middle East, Africa, Southern and 

Eastern Asia, and South America will account for more than 60 percent of new 

transponder and bandwidth demand globally.

Mobility

The global demand from enterprises and consumers for mobile communications 

has exploded over the past decade. The development of low-cost mobile 

equipment unleashed significant growth best met by the ubiquity only satellite 

delivery can provide. From global communications to direct-to-consumer 

services such as mobile television, Internet and broadband services, and 

satellite radio, and enterprise capabilities such as mobile broadcasting, 

satellite news gathering, and transportation fleet management, the demand 

for mobile connectivity appears insatiable. Transportation systems are rapidly 

incorporating mobile communications technologies, such as airline operators 

JetBlue and United Airlines with their DirecTV service to passengers, rental car 
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 20 • 

fleets featuring Sirius Satellite Radio, and emergency services such as OnStar 

expanding beyond General Motors vehicles. Mobile connectivity will be a major 

driver for market growth in the next decade, particularly in Asia, where countries 

such as South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and Singapore typically adopt new

technologies early.

Market Segments

Fixed Satellite Services (FSS)

The FSS market continues to perform well. Major global operators such as 

Intelsat, SES, and Eutelsat and regional operators such as Telesat, AsiaSat, and 

SkyPerfecTV report high transponder utilization rates and stable transponder 

lease pricing. The market is driven by demand for larger replacement 

spacecraft, with additional expansion in new orbital slots for new satellites. 

Asia continues to lead growth in the past year, due to increasing demand 

for enterprise VSAT services, expansion of high definition television services 

(HDTV), and Internet connectivity. Demand in Western Europe remains solid, but 

growth is focused in Central and Eastern Europe and Russia. The Middle East 

and Africa are experiencing moderate growth in transponder demand, due to 

deregulation, increased competition, and the availability of more local content 

from broadcasters. Due to the prolonged impact of the economic recession, the 

North American market has experienced some transponder pricing weakness, 

but this has not substantially affected operator financial performance. South 

America continues to rise with the emergence of a larger consumer class, 

improved regulatory climate, and several nations seeking ITAR-free low-cost 

satellites to exercise their rights to ITU-assigned orbital slots and frequencies. 

Another positive sign is increased demand by governments for capacity to 

support civil applications and military operations such as communications. 

The U.S. Department of Defense has continually increased its demand for 

commercially procured bandwidth in recent years and may order more satellites 

under commercial contracts to meets its growing needs. Intelsat, Eutelsat, 

Hispasat, and other operators expect to derive significant revenues from 

national governments for the provision of transponder capacity.

Direct Broadcasting Services (DB

The lethargic U.S. economy has pressured the DBS market, increasing 

consumer churn rates, competition from low-cost fiber-to-the-curb in urban 

areas, and cost pressures from cable operators trying to protect market share. 

Satellites have even reached saturation in selected metropolitan areas. This 

accounts for EchoStar’s motivation to expand its consumer and enterprise 

presence by providing broadband and mobile services with the acquisition of 

Hughes Communications and its Jupiter 1 (now EchoStar 17) satellite. Both 

EchoStar and DirecTV have strong capital investment programs and expect 

to launch several satellites each in the next few years to replace and add to 

current capacity. Telesat will also meet increasing demand with the launch of 

new satellites, in regions where the cost of laying fiber or cable is prohibitive. 

Demand for direct-to-home services in Europe is increasing, but many 

consumers receive HDTV via cable head-end distribution channels from FSS 

operators such as SES, Eutelsat, and Telenor. As with FSS, growth will be driven 

by demand for HDTV in Asia from operators such as Japan’s SkyPerfecTV, South 

Korea’s KT, and Singapore’s SingTel/Optu
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast

• 21 •

Broadband Service

The broadband market continues to spread globally, as enterprise and 

consumer needs for mobile connectivity drive investments in high-capacity 

systems such as Hughes Communications (now EchoStar), INMARSAT, ViaSat, 

and newcomers such as Great Britain’s Avanti and Australia’s NewSat and 

National Broadband Network systems. INMARSAT is developing its Global 

Express system to provide broadband connectivity in land mobile, aeronautical, 

and maritime market segments. The U.S.’s LightSquared 4G wireless hybrid 

terrestrial/satellite system encountered a major hurdle with the FCC, which 

stated the system’s transmissions cause interference with signals from the GPS 

constellation. As with the FSS and DBS markets, demand from Asia, led by 

South Korea, Japan, China, Taiwan, and Singapore, will drive the market for

broadband satellite services. Government-funded initiatives and mandates to 

provide broadband services and Internet connectivity will help drive the market, 

particularly where those demands cannot be met by laying fiber, such as in 

remote and rural locations.

Mobile Satellite Systems (MSS)

The MSS market remains in flux. MSS requires significant investment to expand 

the ground network, including the ancillary terrestrial network in urban areas, 

to attract enterprise and consumer users. Both LightSquared and TerreStar 

entered bankruptcy in an attempt to rearrange financing and acquire new 

investors, but for now, their SkyTerra 2 and TerreStar 2 satellites, respectively, 

remain unlaunched. EchoStar’s Dish Network recently acquired all the assets of 

TerreStar.

Other companies in the MSS market are performing well. INMARSAT continues 

to perform strongly with steady demand in its vertical enterprise markets as 

it prepares to deploy its advanced INMARSAT 5 satellites. Mexico’s Mexsat 

constellation will provide mobile services for civil administration and emergency 

communications. In the Middle East, Thuraya remains very successful and 

is considering system expansion with a potential fourth spacecraft to meet 

demand. Europe and Japan have been contemplating dedicated MSS 

services to build on capabilities currently provided through FSS systems, but 

coordination across European nations remains an issue.

Digital Audio Radio Service (DAR

DARS remains an exclusively North American product since the merger of XM 

Satellite Radio and Sirius Satellite Radio. This service has yet to attract global 

attention, although South Korea and Japan cooperated on the MBSAT system.

DARS will likely expand to Asia first, followed by Western Europe.

In summary, enterprise and consumer demand for connectivity via satellite is 

expected to increase over the next decade. The outlook for satellite services 

from GSO remains strong, driven by replacement and modest expansion in FSS 

and DBS systems and by new broadband systems. Economic recovery in North 

America, Europe, and Asia will enable a return to growth, with robust pent-up 

demand from enterprise, consumer, and government markets from existing and 

emerging satellite operators.
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 22 • 

Impact of Hosted Payloads on the Commercial Satellite Industr

The U.S. Government has made remarkable progress over the past year laying 

the foundation for a new business approach that would expand the scope 

of capabilities and services that the commercial space sector could provide 

to both the civil and national security sectors. This new business approach 

relies on hosting government payloads on commercial satellites, and involves 

close coordination between the relevant U.S. government agency, the satellite 

operator, and the satellite manufacturer. There are many aspects of this new 

approach that must be worked out, but the government’s efforts to embrace this 

business model are expected to have a positive effect on the commercial space 

industry.

Hurdles to the Routine Use of Commercial Hos

•	 Lack of synchronicity between commercial and military procurement 

standards. Whereas commercial schedules vary from 20 to 36 months, the 

timeframe for a government hosted payload is typically much longer.

•	 Hampered by U.S. governmental rules and policies. Export control 

regulations, policies mandating U.S. launch vehicles for government 

payloads, and the lack of an efficient contract vehicle have made it difficult 

for the U.S. Government to leverage the commercial space sector.

•	 Information security with government hosted payloads. The government is 

concerned about the vulnerability of their sensor data and communication 

links as it is transmitted from the satellite back down to a U.S. government 

facility.

•	 Budget cuts. The recent downturn in the U.S. economy and subsequent 

budget cuts made it challenging to fund investments in hosted payloads 

while trying to maintain and upgrade existing U.S. satellite constellations.

Recent Strides to Help Advance Commercial Host

•	 Buying payloads in advance of commercial host services. In 2012, 

NASA selected SSL to find a host satellite for a 2017 launch of their 

Laser Communications Relay Demonstration (LCRD) terminal. NASA’s 

Tropospheric Emissions Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) hosted payload will 

also be procured before the host spacecraft is identified. These initiatives on 

the part of NASA to begin payload development early will ensure that mature 

payloads can be delivered on time for integration to their commercial hosts.

•	 Pre-qualify prime contractors to supply hosting services. The Air Force 

Space and Missile Systems Center (SMC) is preparing an indefinite delivery, 

indefinite-quantity contract for hosted payload services on commercial 

satellites. The effort will identify a pool of qualified satellite manufacturers 

and owner-operators who can offer host services, set the technical standard 

for payload accommodations, and facilitate the contractual work for all 

parties.

•	 Disaggregation. The Air Force has been studying the concept of moving 

from multiple payloads on one large spacecraft to having them on several 

smaller satellites (or even hosted payloads), with the intent of reducing 

overall mission costs and enhancing constellation resilience.
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast

• 23 •

•	 Increase budget allocation for non-traditional commercial approaches. 

Hosted opportunities are increasingly being outlined for funding, as 

indicated by the Air Force’s recent 2014 budget request for the space 

modernization initiative.

Impact to the Commercial Space Sector

•	 Cost savings and/or revenue generation. There is a mutual benefit to both 

the government agency and the satellite operator in sharing the cost of the 

satellite and launch vehicle. The operator also benefits from the additional 

revenue generated by the hosted payload.

•	 Closing the business case. Cost savings and revenue potential are 

particularly important for satellite operators who want to launch a satellite but 

are CAPEX-limited. The prospect of routine commercial hosting opportunities 

will increase demand for commercial satellites because owner-operators will 

be able to close more business cases with the addition of a hosted payload.

•	 Access to new technology. In some cases, hosted payloads provide access 

to new technologies. For instance, the host of the LCRD terminal will be 

allowed to operate the instrument after NASA’s two-year mission.

In summary, commercial hosting of government payloads will continue to gain 

traction as a viable complement or alternative to the traditional and costly 

heritage constellations. As these non-traditional approaches for providing space 

services to the government sector catch on, hosted payloads are expected 

to have a positive impact on the commercial satellite business by increasing 

satellite demand and access to new technologies.

Launch Service Provider

Competition has increased in the geosynchronous communications satellite 

launch services market with new entrants debuting capabilities, existing 

providers investing to improve their product and service offerings, and others 

waiting in the wings to enter the marketplace. Comsat launch services awards 

will more than ever before be based on overall best value as perceived by 

satellite operator customers with key factors being proven reliability, schedule 

assurance, manifest availability, available scheduling, and a compelling value 

proposition.

SpaceX completed its fifth flight of it Falcon 9 launch vehicle in March with its

second cargo resupply mission to the International Space Station. The company 

is now turning its efforts to flying a commercial payload to LEO to demonstrate 

payload fairing separation technology. Once completed, SpaceX will begin 

launching several satellites into GTO for various satellite operators. Falcon 9 can 

deliver ~4,850 kilograms into GTO from CCAFS. The company is developing the 

Falcon Heavy launch vehicle which will be capable of lofting ~12,000 kilograms 

into GTO from CCAFS when operational in 2015 to address the intermediate and 

heavy mass segments of the commercial satellite market.
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 24 • 

Arianespace is seeking to improve its competitiveness in the commercial GTO 

marketplace with investments in Ariane 5 Mid-life Extension program which will 

increase capacity from ~9,400 kilograms today to ~11,300 kilograms by 2018. 

This will enable Ariane 5 to carry two large satellites simultaneously as opposed 

to pairing one small/medium and one large satellite today. Additionally, ESA is 

funding development of Ariane 6 to be operational in 2021 to provide single 

satellite launch capability across the payload mass spectrum to be more pricecompetitive in the marketplace. Although capable of placing a medium mass 

payload into GTO from Kourou, the Soyuz vehicle appears to be dedicated to

flying missions to LEO for now.

International Launch Services (ILS) continues to upgrade its Proton M

Breeze M vehicle to eventually be capable of lofting >6,900 kilograms into 

GTO from Baikonur. Introduction of a 5 meter payload fairing in 2016 will 

allow deployments of satellites with mass up to 5,850 kilograms. ILS has 

demonstrated dual payload capability several times. The company has recently 

instituted a series of quality management reforms, streamlined production at its 

Khrunichev facilities, and reduced payload processing times at Baikonur. The

company hopes to increase its launch rate to 12-14 per year from its current 

rate of 6-8 per year. Proton M is to be phased out by 2020 as is Baikonur launch 

complex and replaced by the modular and less-costly Angara family of boosters 

launched from Russia’s Far East. The Russian government recently announced 

a ~$50 billion investment in the space sector through 2020 to regain world class 

capabilities, including in affordable launch vehicles.

Sea Launch completed three missions in 2012, but experienced a failure on

its first mission of 2013. A Failure Review Oversight Board has determined the 

root cause of the incident while developing corrective actions. Sea Launch’s 

parent organization, RSC Energia, has pledged its support for Sea Launch and, 

in cooperation with the Russian Space Agency, is in the process of creating 

a strategy that will increase the addressable market for the Zenit-3SL going 

forward. The company is in the process of finalizing plans to increase the Zenit3SL’s lift capacity to 6,700 kilograms and introducing fairing modifications. 

The Land Launch Zenit-3SLB/F remains in the market for lofting small/medium 

satellites to GTO from Baikonur and is scheduled to launch two satellites in 

2013.

Japan and India are considering launching commercial to GTO, but have 

been stymied by high costs, unproven vehicles, and ITAR restrictions. In 

September 2012, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd (MHI) took responsibilit

for H-IIA’s launch service operations. The H-IIA vehicle can loft up to 5,800 

kilograms to GTO. MHI is working a cost reduction strategy to make the vehicle 

more competitive in the commercial marketplace. India’s Space Research

Organization (ISRO) plans to return to flight with its GSLV vehicle after 

experiencing two failures in 2010. ISRO also plans to debut its new GSLV 

Mark III vehicle which is capable of lofting ~4,000 kilograms to GTO.
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast

• 25 •

China remains very active in launching domestic and foreign satellites, with 

unaddressable launches for operators in countries such as Sri Lanka, Pakistan, 

and Laos. One satellite manufacturer in Europe has developed “ITAR-free” 

satellites to appeal to satellite operators to take advantage of the lower cost of 

Chinese launchers.

Lockheed Martin has begun to pursue reentry into the commercial GTO market

using the Atlas V launch vehicle from its 50 percent-owned subsidiary, United 

Launch Alliance. Lockheed Martin hopes to leverage the large U.S. government 

backlog of ULA to offer the Atlas V at a competitive price, while touting the 

vehicle’s reliability.

Others, including South Korea with its KSLV launch vehicle and Brazil an

Ukraine with their Tsyklon-4 launch vehicle, have considered eventually entering

the commercial GSO market.

Cooperation and Partnerships

Satellite operators continue to pursue satellite and orbital slot sharing strategies 

to realize their business objectives. Partnerships provide access to orbital 

slots otherwise unavailable to some operators as well as local market access 

and relationships. Partnerships can also allow operators to share satellite 

infrastructure costs and close business plans that they might not be able to 

independently. There have been numerous examples of satellite/orbital slot 

partnerships, including Measat/Azercosmos, Measat/Newsat, Asiasat/Thaicom, 

Eutelsat/Nilesat, SES/Gazprom, and Intelsat/JSAT, to name a few.

Several European and Russian satellite manufacturers recently announced 

the formation of joint-ventures to target the Russian and international satellite 

markets. Thales and ISS-Reshetnev formed a new company, Universum Space 

Technologies, to manufacture hardware in Russia that could match the exacting 

standards set by U.S. and European companies. The other joint venture, Energia 

Satellite Technologies, is a partnership between RSC Energia and Astrium. 

Energia SAT will focus on satellite services and the exchange of technologies 

and know-how in the manufacturing, assembly and test of equipment and 

satellite systems. The new companies will target several Russian government 

telecommunications programs in the near term, while raising their own technical 

and quality standards to compete in the future against U.S. and European 

builders.
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 26 • 

Regulatory Environmen

ITAR remains an issue for U.S. satellite manufacturers as international 

competitors develop commercial satellite offerings that are not subject to 

U.S. export control regulations. The U.S. Department of State’s approval to 

export satellites to international launch sites applies to U.S.-built satellites and 

satellites using U.S. parts. Thales Alenia Space has been selling a version 

of its Spacebus platform produced without ITAR-restricted components. The 

introduction of this and other “ITAR-free” satellites (Western-built satellites 

containing no ITAR-restricted components) has affected Western launch 

providers as well as U.S. satellite manufacturers. ITAR-free satellites will enable 

launch contracts to be awarded to launch service providers currently restricted 

from importing ITAR-controlled components. ITAR-free satellites may encourage 

non-U.S. satellite manufacturers to abandon flight-proven U.S. components. 

Eight ITAR-free commercial GSO satellites launched between 2005 and 2012, 

most on Long March launch vehicles. The U.S. Government, through the 

Departments of State, Commerce, and Defense and the U.S. Congress, is 

currently implementing changes to the export control regime to make export 

regulations less onerous and improve the competitiveness of U.S. satellite 

manufacturers in the global marketplace. In December 2012, Congress passed 

provisions to reform the export control framework for satellites and related items. 

Satellites and related items may now return to the Commerce Control List, rather 

than the Department of State’s United States Munitions List (USML). The U.S. 

President has the authority to remove these items from the USML.

Table 9 lists the ITAR-free satellites that have been launched since 2005.

The European Union pressed ahead with its “EU Space Code of Conduct” to get 

satellite operators, launch agencies, and all other users of space to recognize 

and respond to the growing threat from space debris. While the GSO population 

has not suffered catastrophic losses due to debris in geosynchronous orbit, 

the issue is being studied closely. All of the users of space, including providers 

of insurance and financing, can be affected by the loss of a satellite in 

geosynchronous orbit. Because of the potential cascading effect of a single 

debris event across geosynchronous orbit, launch activity may be affected as 

operators consider their response.

Satellite Operator Launch Vehicle Launch Date Satellite Mo

Apstar 6 APT Long March 4/12/2005 TAS Spacebus 4000

Chinasat 6B China Satcom Long March 7/5/2007 TAS Spacebus 4000

Chinasat 9 China Satcom Long March 6/9/2008 TAS Spacebus 4000

Palapa D1 Indosat Long March 8/31/2009 TAS Spacebus 4000

Express AM4 RSCC Proton 8/17/2011 Astrium Eurostar 3000

Eutelsat W3C Eutelsat Long March 10/7/2011 TAS Spacebus 4000

Apstar 7 APT Long March 3/31/2012 TAS Spacebus 4000

Chinasat 12 China Satcom Long March 11/27/2012 TAS Spacebus 4000

Table 9. ITAR-free Satellites
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast

• 27 •

Financial Markets

Uncertainty still impacts global financial markets creating mixed results for 

funding satellite services sector businesses. Stock markets have exhibited 

recent volatility with investors nervous about the slowing growth of the Chinese 

economy, the continuing gridlock in economic policy in Washington D.C. 

along with the impacts to the U.S. economy as a result of the imposed budget 

sequestration, and the overall lower growth rates in satellite company earnings 

and revenue streams. Traditional equity investors in this sector remain hesitant 

towards commercial space startups. Debt markets for satellite financing remain 

strong as traditional investors remain risk averse.

Even established companies with strong balance sheets are nevertheless 

experiencing issues securing new debt and equity financing. Intelsat’s new 

IPO was forced to reduce its average price by 22 percent, from $23 per share 

to $18 per share, with share volume offered reduced by 11 percent. Proceeds 

will be used to pay down sizeable debt which may have kept some prospective 

investors on the sidelines. However, general reaction by institutional investors 

in the run-up to the IPO was positive. This attitude was driven by the fact that 

the investor community has a good understanding of the company’s business 

model and of the FSS business in general, as the company’s bonds have long 

been traded on public market exchanges. Also aiding investors is good insight 

into the company’s strong backlog for earnings growth now that it is entering 

a period of substantially lower capital investment in new satellites where free 

cash flow can be directed to reduce outstanding debt. Increased exposure 

through public equity stock trading on global exchanges will help with investor 

awareness. Publicly traded competitors SES and Eutelsat offer shareholders 

hefty dividends which Intelsat will not be doing for now as it focuses on 

deleveraging. 

Export credit agency financing continued to play a strong role in contributing 

to satellite business sector growth. The U.S.-based Ex-Im Bank has financed 

60 percent of U.S. commercial satellite exports over the past two years and is 

expected to maintain that level. Ex-Im Bank is ramping up its support for U.S. 

industry to meet aggressive competition from its European counterpart, Coface, 

which provides significant funding and guarantees for European satellite 

industry export sales worldwide. The loss of financing support for Iridium’s next 

generation satellite system secured by a $1.8 billion loan guarantee from Coface 

was a watershed moment for Ex-Im Bank, which saw jobs and economic growth 

migrate to system vendors in France and Italy as opposed to Lockheed in the 

U.S. Ex-Im Bank raised its participation in the satellite financing sector from 

$50 million per year through 2009 to $1.4 billion in 2012. As an example of its 

renewed effort to support U.S. job creation, Ex-Im Bank provided a low-interest 

loan of $471 million to ABS to cover construction of its two Boeing all-electric 

satellites, a large spacecraft from SSL, and launches on SpaceX Falcon 9 

vehicles. This action in turn permitted ABS to securing bank financing as lenders 

were more comfortable knowing there was backing by the U.S. export credit 

agency. Additionally, the cost-competitiveness of the all-electric platform made 

the project risk more palatable to lenders, turning it from a classic equity risk into 

an acceptable debt risk. Ex-Im Bank also recently provided an $87 million loan 
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 28 •

guarantee to Hispasat to purchase a satellite from Orbital Sciences Corp. even 

as Coface supports the satellite’s launch on the European Ariane launch vehicle. 

New players are emerging in the export-import financing sector as export credit 

agencies from China and Russia seek to win business for domestic contractors 

to provide jobs and build technological capabilities.

Alternative financing sources for new starts such as venture capital funding 

from non-traditional space investors and the debut of crowdsourcing has also 

contributed to satellite business sector growth. Planetary Resources which 

is seeking to develop a spacecraft to conduct asteroid mining has recently 

landed a major equity backer in engineering services giant Bechtel Corp. 

which joins backers including executives from Google, the Perot Group, and 

formerly Microsoft. Start-up earth imaging company SkyBox Imaging has been 

able to raise more than $90 million in equity from an otherwise sheepish equity 

market by creating a business model permitting capital investment to be made 

in increments as the project completes milestones. This runs counter to the 

currently accepted project business model wherein large capital spending 

commitments are needed upfront before cash flow begins. A non-profit 

consortium of universities and public and private organizations, Kentucky Space

LLC, announced the creation of Space Tango to assist new space businesses 

in developing innovations and novel applications. Selected companies will have 

access to technical and business advisories and U.S. government facilities. 

Crowdfunding website Kickstarter has been tapped to fund small space projects

via public financial participation for ventures including Kicksat, which plans to

fly hundreds of Sprites (satellites on microchips) inside a triple cubesat, and 

SkyCube which plans to capture Earth images and tweet messages from space. 

Crowdfunding campaigns help project developers identify enthusiastic backers 

for support which many new small start-ups are unlikely to attain with traditional 

established private investors who want detailed business plans and equity 

participation in return for financing. The B612 Foundation which seeks to deploy 

a space telescope in orbit to identify near-Earth asteroids is inviting people from 

around the world to contribute $10 or more to realize the mission.

Given the long lead-times associated with deploying GSO spacecraft on 

orbit, continued access to affordable capital will remain crucial for operators. 

Assuming a continued steady global economic recovery, certainty in the 

financial markets will provide confidence for investors to move forward in 

offering financing for satellite operators and services providers for business 

recapitalization and expansion.
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast

• 29 •

Space Insurance

Space insurance is typically the third largest cost component of a commercial 

satellite system, after the cost of the satellite and launch services. The space 

insurance market is characterized by low frequency and high severity of losses, 

a small number of insured events, highly complex technical underwriting and 

claims handling, unique risks and exposures, manuscript policy wordings, and 

volatile underwriting results. As a result, the number of insurance companies 

willing to commit capital to space insurance has always been limited – there 

are currently about 35 companies worldwide providing such insurance. The 

business cycle of space insurance – and of insurance companies in general – 

is influenced by worldwide catastrophe losses and investment returns, among 

other factors. Due to recent good experience in space insurance, as well as 

a recovery in financial markets, there is currently an abundance of available 

capacity for insuring satellite launches. This has pushed pricing to historically 

low levels, facilitating the placement of insurance for satellite programs. When 

the business cycle eventually turns, and adverse experience reduces available 

capacity, pricing will increase, and insurance for commercial space programs 

may be constrained. Although this can affect the scheduling of launches, there 

is generally sufficient time between insurance policy placement and launch to 

allow for such contingencies.

SUPPLEMENTARY QUESTIONNAIRE

As part of the COMSTAC request for input from industry participants, a 

supplementary questionnaire was provided to satellite service providers. 

The questionnaire focuses on factors that may impact service providers’ 

plans to purchase and launch satellites. A summary of the responses to this 

questionnaire is provided in Table 10. The last column is a comparison to the 

survey responses received for the 2012 Report.

The following eight satellite operators responded to the questionnaire. The 

Forecast Team offers special thanks to these companies for providing this 

additional input:

• Echostar (2 responses) (United States)

• Hisdesat (Spain)

• Inmarsat (England)

• NewSat (Australia)

• SingTel Optus (Australia)

• Sirius XM (United States)* 

• Spacecom (Israel)

• Star One (Brazil)

* = 2012 respondent 

2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 30 • 

Although there was little carryover in respondents from 2012 to 2013, the basic 

composition of the respondents remained constant. Two respondents were 

U.S. companies in both 2012 and 2013, with the remaining respondents from 

the international community. For this reason, it seems reasonable to make 

comparisons between last year’s survey and this year’s.

The basis of the questionnaire is the single question: “To what extent have your 

company’s plans to purchase or launch satellites been positively or negatively 

impacted by the following variables in the past year?”

The variables fall into three main categories: financial, technical, and regulatory. 

The 2013 survey does not reflect any major changes in respondents’ perception 

of the industry. In the financial category, there was a slight increase in the 

percentage of respondents who felt global economic conditions were having 

a negative impact on their business plans but operators were more optimistic 

regarding the impact of industry consolidation and the ability to compete with 

terrestrial services. Technical concerns showed improvement in some areas 

including the availability of launch vehicles that meet requirements and the 

reliability of satellite systems. Respondents indicated increasing dissatisfaction 

with the reliability of launch systems but were upbeat about the introduction of 

new or upgraded launch vehicles. Perception of regulatory issues remained 

negative.

Reflecting continuing global economic woes, the responses to financial 

concerns remained somewhat negative. The availability of financing was a 

continuing concern for the 2013 respondents, with 33 percent reporting some 

negative impact compared with 33 percent reporting some or significant 

negative impact in 2012. Respondents also saw an impact from decrease in 

demand for satellite services with 44 percent of the respondents reporting 

some negative impact compared with 33 percent in 2012. Operators were more 

confident in their ability to compete with terrestrial services in 2013, with only 22 

percent reporting a negative impact in 2013 compared with 33 percent in 2012.

Operators continue to be satisfied with the variety of satellite systems 

available to them. Operators had mixed opinions about launch vehicles, 

however. Operators were generally optimistic about the impact of new satellite 

technologies, with 56 percent forecasting some positive impact on their 

business plans. Opinions on launch vehicles were mixed. On the plus side, only 

22 percent of the 2013 respondents said the availability of launch vehicles had 

some or significant negative impact on their plans, compared to 33 percent of 

the 2012 respondents. Perception of launch vehicle reliability has decreased 

again, with 33 percent of the 2013 responses indicating a negative impact 

compared to 17 percent of the 2012 respondents. This dissatisfaction with 

launch vehicle reliability has increased dramatically since the 2011 survey when 

none of the operators expressed any concerns about launch vehicle reliability. 

This can likely be attributed to the recent string of Proton failures and the 

2013 Sea Launch failure. All of the respondents responded either neutrally or 

favorably to the introduction of new/upgraded launch vehicles.
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: COMSTAC GSO Forecast

• 31 •

The regulatory category reflected some significant changes from 2012. Eleven 

percent of the 2013 respondents experienced some negative impact as a result 

of their inability to obtain required export licenses, compared to zero percent 

of the 2012 respondents. However, only 22 percent of the 2013 respondents 

saw a negative impact on their ability to obtain required operating licenses, as 

opposed to 50 percent of the 2012 responses. In response to one of the new 

questions, 56 percent of the respondents saw some negative impact due to 

international or domestic regulatory issues.

Table 10. Survey Questionnaire Summary

Question: “To what extent 

have your company’s 

plans to purchase or 

launch satellites been 

positively or negatively 

impacted by the following 

variables in the past 

year?”

Significant 

Negative 

Impact

Some 

Negative 

Impact

No Effect

Some 

Positive 

Impact

Significant 

Positive 

Impact

2013 vs

2012 

Ability to compete with 

terrestrial services 0% 22% 56% 22% 0% é

Availability of affordable 

insurance 0% 11% 22% 67% 0% ê

Availability of financing 0% 33% 56% 11% 0% =

Demand for satellite services 0% 44% 11% 22% 22% ê

Regional or global economic 

conditions 11% 44% 33% 11% 0% ê

Consolidation of satellite 

service providers 0% 11% 78% 11% 0% é

Availability of required 

operating licenses 0% 22% 33% 33% 11% é

International or domestic 

regulatory issues 0% 56% 33% 0% 11% New

Availability of export licenses 0% 11% 56% 33% 0% ê

Availability of launch 

vehicles that meet your 

requirements

11% 11% 44% 22% 11% é

Availability of satellite 

systems that meet your 

requirements

0% 0% 22% 67% 11% =

Reliability of launch systems 11% 22% 22% 44% 0% ê

Reliability of satellite systems 11% 0% 44% 44% 0% é

Introduction of new satellite 

technologies 0% 11% 33% 56% 0% New

Introduction of new or 

upgraded launch vehicles 0% 0% 44% 33% 22% New

ê = No changed compared to 2012 ê

More positive compared to 2012 More negative compared to 2012
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 32 •

2013 COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTAT

FORECAST FOR NON-GEOSYNCHR

ORBI

Introduction

The 2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous 

Orbits (NGSO) is developed by the Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of 

Commercial Space Transportation (FAA AST). This report projects commercial 

launch demand for all space systems deployed to NGSO, including low Earth 

orbit (LEO), medium Earth orbit (MEO), elliptical orbits (ELI), and external 

trajectories (EXT) to the Moon or other solar system destinations. First compiled 

in 1994, the forecast assesses payloads most likely to seek commercial launch 

services during the next 10 years. Commercial launches, as defined for this 

report, include those whose services are sought on the international market. It 

also includes U.S. domestic commercial launch services licensed by the FAA, 

such as commercial launches to the International Space Station (ISS).

Report Purpose and Methodolog

The 2013 report helps U.S. industry, as well as the U.S. Government, understand 

the scope and trends of global commercial spaceflight demand. It also assists 

FAA AST in licensing and planning.

This report is based on FAA AST research and discussions with the U.S. 

commercial space industry, including satellite service providers, spacecraft 

manufacturers, launch service providers, system operators, government 

offices, and independent analysts. The report examines progress for publicly 

announced payloads (satellites, space vehicles, and other spacecraft) and 

considers the following factors:

• Financing;

• Regulatory developments;

• Spacecraft manufacturing and launch services contracts;

• Investor confidence;

• Competition from space and terrestrial sectors; and

• Overall economic conditions.

This report includes five payload segments, defined by the type of service the 

spacecraft offer:

• Commercial telecommunications;

• Commercial remote sensing;

• Commercial cargo and crew transportation services, including cargo and 

human spaceflight;

• Other commercially launched satellites;1

 and 

• Technology test and demonstration.

1

 This category combines two categories from previous iterations of this report: science and 

engineering and other payloads launched commercially.
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast

• 33 •

Future deployments of payloads that have not yet been announced are 

projected based on market trends, the status of payloads currently on orbit, 

and the economic conditions of potential payload developers and operators. 

Follow-on systems and replacement satellites for existing systems are evaluated 

on a case-by-case basis. In some cases, expected future activity is beyond the 

timeframe of the report or is not known with enough certainty to merit inclusion 

in the NGSO forecast model. For the Other Commercially Launched Satellites 

market, the forecast used near-term primary payloads generating individual 

commercial launches in the model and estimated future years based on 

historical and near-term activity. The projected launches for commercial cargo 

and crew transportation services were based on the National Aeronautics and 

Space Administration (NASA) 2014 ISS traffic model.

Commercial NGSO Launch Industry Sector

Demand for commercial space launch typically flows from top to bottom 

through the following industry sectors: satellite and commercial transportation 

service operators, satellite manufacturers, launch providers, and launch vehicle 

manufacturers.

Satellite and Commercial Transportation Serv

Operato

Operators purchase and operate payloads (spacecraft) that provide services 

such as commercial telecommunications, commercial remote sensing, science 

missions, and commercial cargo and crew transportation services. Their 

customers include private companies, militaries, national space programs, 

universities, and the general public.

Operators include private companies, government agencies, public-private 

partnerships, universities, and non-profit entities. Private sector payload 

operators typically focus on a particular service segment, for example, 

DigitalGlobe in the remote sensing segment and Iridium and ORBCOMM in the 

telecommunications segment. Government agencies operate a range of satellite 

systems and other types of payloads across multiple service segments.

Spacecraft Manufact

These organizations include private companies, universities, and occasionally 

government organizations that construct satellites for satellite operators. Most 

manufacturers can produce spacecraft for multiple service sectors, although 

some specialize in a particular segment. Spacecraft often include components 

or instruments obtained from multiple suppliers. Typically, one manufacturer 

serves as the prime contractor for a spacecraft and is responsible for integrating 

components.
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 34 •

Launch Provi

These companies provide launch services for spacecraft under contracts 

with payload operators, although sometimes these contracts are signed with 

spacecraft manufacturers (in arrangements known as delivery-on-orbit).

Launch Vehicle Manufa

These organizations include private companies, government organizations, 

and mixed publicly-privately owned entities that design and build rocket launch 

vehicles for launching payloads, including satellites, crew vehicles, and other 

spacecraft. Launch vehicle manufacturers can be the same entities as launch 

providers, be partial owners of launch provider companies, or market their 

launch vehicles through launch providers under agreements or contracts.

Although the industry sectors are distinct, many companies are active in 

more than one of them. For example, companies such as Orbital Sciences 

Corporation (Orbital) or Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) build and 

launch their own rockets, and manufacture and operate spacecraft.

The above industry sectors do not include government regulators, finance 

sources, insurers, or other additional industry sectors. It is important to note 

these sectors exist and influence demand within the commercial NGSO launch 

market.
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast

• 35 •

Report Summar

The report projects an average demand of 13 launches per year worldwide 

during the period 2013 through 2022. The launch demand peaks in 2015, with 

17 launches, due to the deployment of Iridium, Globalstar, and DMCii payloads; 

frequent commercial crew and cargo launches to the ISS; and the start of test 

flights for the commercial crew program. For the telecommunications sector, 

a drop in launch demand is expected after 2017, when telecommunication 

constellations, including Iridium, finish deployment. This average is comparable 

to last year’s average of 12.8 launches per year. The number of NGSO 

commercial launches is relatively small compared to the total number of NGSO 

launches per year. For the last 10 years, there has been an average of 44 

NGSO launchers per year. Only 12 percent of these launches (approximately 

5 launches per year) were commercial. The forecast predicts the annual 

commercial NGSO launch numbers will more than double the historical annual 

averages.

Launch demand is divided into 2 vehicle size classes, with an average of 12.7 

medium-to-heavy vehicle launches per year and 0.3 small vehicle launches 

per year for 2013 to 2022. The launches in the next 10 years are predominantly 

commercial launches to the ISS and replacement telecommunication satellites, 

all of which require medium-to-heavy vehicles. Ninety-eight percent of all 

commercial NGSO launches during the forecast period will launch on mediumto-heavy vehicles. Compared to last year’s report, the number of small launches 

continued to decrease, and the number of medium-to-heavy launches increased 

slightly. This trend is expected to continue due to such factors as relatively 

higher price of small vehicle launches, availability of multiple-manifest launch 

services and commercial payload brokerage and integration services for 

secondary payloads, as well as other factors discussed in the Satellite and 

Launch Forecast Trends section. Figure 11 depicts the launch distribution by 

payload segment type and vehicle size.

Figure 11. Distribution of Forecasted Launches by Payload Segment and Vehicle Size

Small Launch Vehicles

2%

Medium-to-Heavy

 Launch Vehicles

98%

VEHIC

SIZE

Other 

Commercially 

Launched 

Satellites

22%

Test and Demo

2% Commercial 

Telecommunications

12%

Commercial 

Remote Sensing

7%

Commercial 

Transportation 

Services

57%

PAYLOA

SEGMENT
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 36 •

Fifty-seven percent of the NGSO launches projected for the next 10 years are 

for commercial crew and cargo to the ISS. This marks an increase from a 50 

percent share projected for this segment in the 2012 report, due to commercial 

cargo launches rescheduled from 2012 to later dates and the addition of new 

commercial crew test flights beginning in 2015. Some of the launches to the 

ISS are scheduled for vehicles still in development, and all of these launches 

partly rely on government funding subject to annual appropriations; therefore, 

technical or financial issues could delay ISS resupply launches further. 

After commercial crew and cargo flights to the ISS, Other Commercially 

Launched Satellites, which is predominantly government satellites launched 

commercially, is the second largest market, comprising 22 percent of the launch 

market. Telecommunications satellites comprise 12 percent of the launch 

market, launching 35 percent of the forecasted payloads, all of them multimanifested or launched as secondary payloads. It is the third largest segment 

of commercial market for NGSO, but it is expected to significantly drop off 

after 2018 when the major NGSO telecommunications constellations, Iridium, 

Globalstar, ORBCOMM, and O3b, are deployed. Commercial remote sensing 

launches account for 7 percent of the launch market, and have had a steady 

demand for one to two launches a year.

The annual launch rate during the next 10 years is considerably higher than 

in the previous decade (see Figure 12). Commercial space transportation and 

telecommunications constellation replenishments continue to drive this increase. 

Figure 12. Commercial NGSO Launch History and Projected Launch Plans

4

2 3

5

12

10

5

8

3 3

16

14

17 16

13 12 11 11 10 10

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20032004200520062007200820092010

2011

20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Launches
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast

• 37 •

Last year’s report predicted 11 launches for 2012, but only 3 occurred, which 

demonstrates the challenge of projecting launch rates across all segments. The 

Antares Demo Flight (now successfully launched) and the Cygnus Commercial 

Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) Demo were both delayed into 2013 due 

to pad construction delays and ground test issues. Five Other Commercially 

Launched Satellites did not launch due to various reasons. The second Dragon 

resupply mission was delayed into 2013, but has since completed a successful 

launch and reentry. A large portion of commercial launch services is tied to 

the development and launch of new systems both on the payload and launch 

vehicle sides of the industry.

In addition to this forecasting challenge, it is still too early to predict with 

accuracy new and emerging markets. If NASA’s needs for commercial cargo 

and crew to the ISS grow, Bigelow Aerospace launches its space stations, the 

space tourism market matures, and commercial companies launch payloads to 

the Moon and Mars, there can be significant growth in NGSO launches in 2018 

and beyond. For example, if O3b’s new MEO broadband telecommunications 

satellite constellation is successful, it may lead to deployment of additional 

satellites in subsequent years. According to O3b, a fully extended constellation 

would require 16 more satellites (launched 4 at a time), which would result in 4 

additional NGSO launches during the forecast period.

In this report, the near-term launch projection (2013-2016) is based on publicly 

announced launch demand. Table 11 identifies all NGSO satellites manifested 

for 2013 through 2016 that drive a launch. The report projects 16 NGSO 

launches for 2013 and 14 for 2014. However, applying a realization factor, the 

actual NGSO launches are more likely to be between seven and ten in 2013, 

and five and eight in 2014. This factor is based on the difference between 

projected launches and actual launches in the five years before the year of 

the report and is only applied to 2013 and 2014. The mid- and long-term 

launch projections (2017-2022) are based on publicly available information 

from satellite service providers, correspondence with service providers, and 

estimates of when existing constellations will reach end of life and require 

replacement.

The 2013 projection includes the maiden flights of Orbital’s Antares rocket 

and SpaceX’s new launch vehicle, Falcon Heavy; the Cygnus COTS Demo to 

the ISS; and the deployment of the first O3b telecommunications satellites to 

MEO. The 2014 projection for total launches includes the first flight of NASA’s 

Orion Multi Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) demo on a Delta IV Heavy. Maiden 

flights, new vehicles, new satellite systems, and new spacecraft missions have 

a greater than normal chance of slipping into the next year. The Risk Factors

section of this report discusses projection uncertainty in detail.
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 38 •

Table 11. Near-Term NGSO Manifest of Identified Primary Payloads2

Service Type 2013 2014 2015 2016

Commercial 

Telecommunications 

Satellites

Globalstar (6) - Soyuz 2 O3b (4) - Soyuz 2 Globalstar (6) - Soyuz 2 Iridium (10) - Falcon 9

O3b (4) - Soyuz 2 ORBCOMM (9) - Falcon 9 Iridium (2) - Dnepr Iridium (10) - Falcon 9

O3b (4) - Soyuz 2 Iridium (10) - Falcon 9 Iridium (10) - Falcon 9

ORBCOMM (9) - Falcon 9 Iridium (10) - Falcon 9

Commercial Remote

Sensing Satellites

Worldview-3 - Atlas V DMC3-1 - Dnepr EROS C - TBD

DMC3-2 - Dnepr TerraSAR-NG - TBD

DMC3-3 - Dnepr

Commercial 

Cargo and Crew 

Transportation 

Services3

Cygnus COTS Demo - 

Antares

Cygnus CRS Flight - 

Antares

Crew Test Flight - TBD Crew Test Flight - TBD

Cygnus CRS Flight - 

Antares

Cygnus CRS Flight - 

Antares

Crew Test Flight TBD Crew Test Flight - TBD

Dragon CRS Flight - 

Falcon 9

Cygnus CRS Flight - 

Antares

Cygnus CRS Flight - 

Antares

Crew Test Flight - TBD

Dragon CRS Flight - 

Falcon 9

Dragon CRS Flight - 

Falcon 9

Cygnus CRS Flight - 

Antares

Cygnus CRS Flight - 

Antares

Dragon CRS Flight - 

Falcon 9

Dragon CRS Flight - 

Falcon 9

Cygnus CRS Flight - 

Antares

Dragon CRS Flight - 

Falcon 9

Dragon CRS Flight - 

Falcon 9

Dragon CRS Flight - 

Falcon 9

Dragon CRS Flight - 

Falcon 9

Dragon CRS Flight - 

Falcon 9

Dragon CRS Flight - 

Falcon 9

Other Commercially 

Launched Satellite

ASNARO - Dnepr Gökturk 1 - TBD INGENIO - TBD DragonLab 1 - Falcon 9

CASSIOPE - Falcon 9 Formosat 5 - Falcon 9 SAOCOM 1B - Falcon 9 DubaiSat-3 - Dnepr

DubaiSat 2 - Dnepr Kompsat 3A - Dnepr EnMAP - PSL

Kompsat 5 - Dnepr PAZ - Dnep

ORS-3 Enabler - Minotaur I SAOCOM 1A - Falcon 9

SWARM (3) - Rockot

Technology Test 

and Demonstration 

Launche

Test Package - Antares Orion MPCV Demo - 

Delta IV Heavy Test Package - Falcon 

Heavy

Total Payloads 

(includes secondary) 74 32 41 45

Total Launches 16 14 17 1

Launch Realizatio

Factor Applied 7-10 5-8

2 Near-term NGSO payloads and launches are based on information obtained from discussions with launch providers, satellite 

manufacturers, system operators, government offices, and independent analysts. Launch dates could vary between publicly available 

information and information gathered from other sources.

3

 The Commercial Cargo and Crew Transportation Services near-term NGSO manifest is based on the NASA 2014 ISS traffic model.
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast

• 39 •

NGSO Payload Market Segments

Commercial Telecommunication Satellites

The NGSO telecommunications satellite market is based on large constellations 

of small-to-medium-sized satellites that provide global or near-global 

communications coverage. The constellations can be divided into three major 

categories based on the frequencies the satellites use: narrowband (also known 

as Little LEO), wideband (also known as Big LEO), and broadband.

Telecommunications Launch Demand Summar

From 2013 through 2017, between two and four launches of NGSO 

telecommunications satellites will occur each year. There will be four launches in 

2013, as Globalstar, ORBCOMM, and the emerging MEO Ka-band broadband

operator O3b launch their satellites, and there will be an average of three 

launches per year between 2015 and 2017 as Iridium replaces its satellites 

and Globalstar launches additional satellites. Globalstar and O3b are planning 

to launch on Soyuz 2 vehicles from Baikonur, Kazakhstan and French Guiana,

respectively. The first two Iridium NEXT satellites are currently planned to launch 

on a Dnepr rocket in 2015. Two ORBCOMM and seven Iridium NEXT launches 

are planned for the Falcon 9 vehicle. Operators intend to finish the replacement 

of their constellations before 2018, so no telecommunications launches are 

projected for 2018 through 2021. Figure 13 provides a representation of 

telecommunications launch history and projected launch plans.

Figure 13. Commercial Telecommunications Launch History and Projected Launch Plans

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Globalstar - 

Soyuz 2

O3b - 

Soyuz 2

Globalstar - 

Soyuz 2

Iridium - 

Falcon 9

Iridium - 

Falcon 9

O3b - 

Soyuz 2

ORBCOMM - 

Falcon 9

Iridium - 

Dnepr

Iridium - 

Falcon 9

Iridium - 

Falcon 9

O3b - 

Soyuz 2

Iridium - 

Falcon 9

Iridium - 

Falcon 9

ORBCOMM - 

Falcon 9

Iridium - 

Falcon 9

2

1 1

2

4

2

4

3

2

0

1

2

3

4

5

20032004200520062007200820092010

2011

20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Launches
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 40 •

Narrowband NGSO Telecommunications Systems

Narrowband LEO systems (see Table 12) operate at frequencies below 1 GHz. 

These systems provide narrowband data communications, such as email, twoway paging, and simple messaging for automated meter reading, vehicle fleet 

tracking, and other remote data monitoring applications. ORBCOMM is the only 

fully operational narrowband system. Another system, AprizeStar (LatinSat), is 

partially operational with eight satellites on orbit and will reach its full capacity 

when the full constellation is deployed. The AprizeStar deployment schedule is 

dependent on the availability of funding and revenue generated by the satellites 

currently on orbit.

System/

Operator

Prime 

Contractor

Satellites

Orbit 

Type

First 

Launch Statu

Number 

(on orbit/

operational)

Mass 

kg (lb)

Operational

ORBCOMM/

ORBCOMM 

Inc.

Orbital 

Sciences 

Corp. 

(1st Gen.);

SNC 

(2nd Gen.)

41/27

43 (95) 

(1st Gen.); 

142 (313) 

(2nd Gen.)

LEO 1997

System operational with 41 satellites 

on orbit. In 2012, a prototype second 

generation satellite was launched 

to orbit as a secondary payload 

on a Falcon 9/Dragon ISS mission. 

In accordance with ISS safety 

requirements, the satellite was deployed 

at a lower altitude than initially planned 

in an effort to optimize the safety of the 

ISS and its crewmembers.

Under Developmen

AprizeStar 

(LatinSat)/

Aprize 

Satellite

SpaceQuest 8/6 10 (22) LEO 2002

Planned 12- to 30-satellite system, 

with intermittent launches based on 

availability of funding. Two satellites 

are planned for launch in 2013 and two 

more in 2014. The company expects 

to continue launching two AprizeSat 

satellites every year or two for as long 

as Dnepr cluster launches are available.

Table 12. Narrowband Systems
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast

• 41 •

Wideband NGSO Telecommunications Systems

Wideband LEO systems (see Table 13) use frequencies in the range of 1.6–2.5 GHz 

(L- and S-band frequencies). Wideband systems provide mobile voice telephony 

and data services. The two wideband systems Globalstar and Iridium are on orbit 

and operational.

Broadband NGSO Telecommunications System

Broadband systems (see Table 14) reside in NGSO and provide high-speed data 

services at Ka- and Ku-band frequencies. O3b Networks Ltd. plans an initia

deployment of its first eight satellites in 2013.

System/

Operator

Prime 

Contractor

Satellites

Orbit 

Type

First 

Launch Statu

Number 

(on orbit/

operational)

Mass 

kg (lb)

Under Developmen

O3b/O3b 

Networks 

Ltd.

Thales 

Alenia 

Space

0/0 700 (1,540) MEO 2013

The first eight satellites of the 

constellation plan to launch in 2013. 

Four more will be deployed in 2014.

Table 14. Broadband Systems

System/

Operator

Prime 

Contractor

Satellites

Orbit 

Type

First 

Launch Statu

Number 

(on orbit/

operational)

Mass 

kg (lb)

Operational

Globalstar/

Globalstar Inc.

SS/Loral 

(1st Gen.);

Thales 

Alenia 

Space 

(2nd Gen.)

68/54

447 (985)

(1st Gen.);

700 (1,543)

(2nd Gen.)

LEO 1998

Constellation on orbit and 

operational, with technical 

anomalies. Eight replacement 

satellites launched in 2007. 

Eighteen second generation 

satellites launched on three Soyuz 

rockets in 2010 and 2011. Six 

more second generation satellites 

were launched aboard a Soyuz 

vehicle in early 2013. Six additional 

satellites ordered from Thales 

Alenia Space in September 2012, 

to launch in 2015.

Iridium/

Iridium

Communications 

Inc.

Motorola 

(Iridium); 

Thales 

Alenia 

Space 

(Iridium 

NEXT)

90/72

680 (1,500) 

Iridium; 

800 (1,763) 

Iridium 

NEXT

LEO 1997

Constellation on orbit and 

operational. Five spare satellites 

launched in February 2002; two 

additional spares launched June 

2002. Next generation system 

under development by Thales 

Alenia Space. Multiple launches 

of Iridium NEXT constellation are 

projected to begin in 2015.

Table 13. Wideband Systems
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 42 •

Federal Communications Commission Telecommunication License

Table 15 shows Federal Communications Commission (FCC) 

telecommunications licenses issued to the commercial NGSO 

telecommunications satellite operators. The three systems originally deployed 

in the 1990s, ORBCOMM, Globalstar, and Iridium, are in different stages of 

planning, development, and deployment of their new generation of satellites.

Globalstar

Globalstar, Inc. is a publicly traded wideband system operator primarily serving 

the commercial global satellite voice and data markets. Their full service offering 

began in 2000. The company is currently in the process of augmenting its onorbit satellite constellation. 

Globalstar’s first generation satellite constellation consisted of 52 satellites: 48 

operational satellites plus 4 on-orbit spares. Globalstar’s original constellation 

began experiencing problems with its S-band amplifier in 2001. In 2007, the 

S-band problem began affecting the company’s voice and two-way data 

services. The constellation’s simplex one-way L-band data services were 

not affected by these problems. To mitigate the S-band problems and begin 

updating the on-orbit constellation, Globalstar launched its final eight first 

generation replacement satellites on two Soyuz vehicles in May and October 

2007. These satellites have not suffered from the technical anomalies of the 

other operational satellites, but their addition to the constellation did not restore 

sufficient capacity for full voice and two-way data service.

License

Date License

Granted or Updated Remar

ORBCOMM 3/31/1998

Authorized Orbital Communications Corporation to modify its non-voice, 

non-geostationary mobile-satellite service system, initially licensed and 

authorized in 1994.

Iridium Satellite 

LLC 7/17/2001 Authorized Iridium to operate feeder uplinks in the 29.1-29.25 MobileSatellite Service (MSS).

Globalstar 7/17/2001

Authorized Globalstar, L.P. to use spectrum in the 2 GHz band 

to provide Mobile-Satellite Service (MSS) from NGSO and 

geosynchronous satellite orbit (GSO) satellites.

Iridium Satellite 

LLC 2/8/2002 Granted assignment of licenses and authorizations pertaining to the operation of the Iridium Mobile Satellite Service System.

Globalstar 1/30/2003

Denied Globalstar’s “Application for Modification of License” and its 

“Request for Waiver and Modification of Implementation Milestones for 

2 GHz MSS System.”

Iridium Satellite 

LLC 6/24/2003 Modified the authorization currently held by Iridium 2 GHz LLC to use spectrum in the 2 GHz band to provide mobile-satellite service.

Iridium Satellite 

LLC 10/7/2003

Modified the licenses of Iridium Constellation, LLC and Iridium, US LP 

(collectively “Iridium”) and authorized Iridium to operate satellites in the 

“Big LEO” mobile-satellite service (MSS) system in the 1620.10-1621.35 

MHz frequency band.

Globalstar 3/8/2004 International authorizations granted.

Globalstar 6/24/2004 Denied the Application for Review filed by Globalstar, LP.

Iridium Satellite 

LLC 9/3/2004 Modified the authorizations of Iridium to operate space and earth stations in the “Big LEO” MSS.

AprizeStar 2010 FCC license issued in 2010 covers AprizeSat 1 through 6. It is modified 

and extended to cover AprizeSat 7 and 8 launched in 2012.

Table 15. FCC Telecommunication Licenses
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast

• 43 •

As a result of the S-band problems, Globalstar’s revenues started to slip in 

2006. In response to these declining revenues, Globalstar lowered prices for 

its customers and developed a simplex service product called the Satellite 

Pour l’Observation de la Terra (SPOT) Satellite Global Positioning System (GPS) 

Messenger. In July 2009, Globalstar uploaded a second generation SPOT 

Satellite GPS Messenger software upgrade to the existing constellation. 

Arianespace, through its Starsem affiliate, launched Globalstar’s 24 second 

generation satellites. The first 6 satellites were launched into orbit in 2010, the 

next 12 launched in 2011, and the remaining 6 in February 2013. All launches 

were from Baikonur, Kazakhstan on Soyuz rockets carrying six satellites per

launch. Globalstar reported significant improvement in service availability and 

quality after the new generation satellites came online following on-orbit testing. 

Thales Alenia Space developed and built the 25 second generation satellites 

(including one ground spare) for Globalstar. Together with the 8 replacement 

satellites launched in 2007, Globalstar has a 32-satellite system since the initial 

deployment of its new constellation concluded. 

Globalstar reported it is in negotiations with Thales Alenia Space for an option 

of manufacturing 23 additional satellites in the coming years. The spacecraft 

would be spares for the existing fleet and launch as needed. An order for 

manufacturing of the first six was placed with Thales Alenia Space in September 

2012, tentatively to launch in 2015. Because no launch contracts have been 

made for these additional Globalstar satellites and any launch would be 

contingent on the health of the satellites on orbit, this report does not project 

additional launches beyond 2015.

Figure 14 shows the decline in Globalstar’s revenues from 2006 to 2009 and 

a rise beginning in 2010, due to higher revenues from the SPOT Satellite GPS 

Messenger service and simplex data services and improvements in duplex and 

simplex services after 

second generation 

satellite deployment. 

Because of the 

commercial success of 

the SPOT Satellite GPS 

Messenger service, 

Globalstar plans to 

introduce additional 

duplex and simplex 

products and services 

through its renewed 

constellation.

Figure 14. Publicly Reported Globalstar Annual Revenue

$0

$50

$100

$150

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Millions
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 44 •

Iridium

Iridium Communications Inc. is the successor to the original Iridium LLC that 

built and launched the Iridium satellite constellation in the late 1990s. Iridium 

Communications Inc. owns and operates a constellation of 72 operational 

commercial communications satellites: 66 active spacecraft and 6 orbiting 

functional spares. These satellites comprise a fully operational system to provide 

service until at least 2015. In 2010, Iridium selected Thales Alenia Space as the 

prime contractor for the system development of a second generation satellite 

constellation, named Iridium NEXT. Each satellite in the new constellation can 

carry a hosted payload in addition to the primary communications payload. 

Iridium is marketing this opportunity to potential customers while the satellites 

are under construction.

Iridium announced that SpaceX will be the primary launch provider for Iridium 

NEXT. Iridium also signed a contract with International Space Company 

Kosmotras (provider of the Dnepr launch vehicle) to be a supplemental provider

of launch services for Iridium NEXT. The company reportedly plans to launch 

72 satellites (66 to enter active service and 6 to serve as on-orbit spares) 

during a 3-year period scheduled to begin in 2015. The first two Iridium NEXT 

satellites are currently 

planned to launch on a 

Dnepr rocket in 2015. 

The rest of the Iridium 

NEXT constellation will 

launch on approximately 

7 Falcon 9 launches 

carrying 10 satellites 

each. Nine Iridium NEXT 

satellites will remain 

ground spares.

Iridium revenues are 

presented in Figure 15. 

ORBCO

Between 1995 and 1999, ORBCOMM deployed a narrowband constellation of 

35 satellites, 27 of which are operational today. It is the only company to have 

fully deployed a system that provides low-bandwidth packet data services 

worldwide. ORBCOMM focuses on providing data services for machine-tomachine applications.

In 2008, six ORBCOMM satellites launched on a Russian Cosmos 3M vehicle to 

begin replacing the legacy constellation deployed in 1999. One of the planned 

upgrades to the constellation was the addition of the Automatic Identification 

System (AIS), a sea vessel identification and tracking system. Shortly after 

deployment, all six satellites failed, leaving ORBCOMM with no AIS capability for 

its subscribed customers. 

Figure 15. Publicly Reported Iridium Annual Revenue

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Millions
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast

• 45 •

To remediate the service shortfall, Luxspace, a subsidiary of the prime satellite 

manufacturer OHB System, developed Vesselsat 1 and Vesselsat 2. Vesselsat 1 

launched into equatorial orbit on a Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) rocket in 

December 2011, and Vesselsat 2 launched into polar orbit on a Long March rocket 

in January 2012. Both satellites launched as piggyback payloads. ORBCOMM is 

the exclusive licensee for the AIS data collected by VesselSat 1 and VesselSat 2. 

These two AIS-only satellites will not be integrated into ORBCOMM’s current or 

second generation (OG2) constellation. Instead they will serve as a supplement to 

these constellations.

ORBCOMM’s plans for replacing its current constellation are underway. 

Seventeen satellites of the 18-satellite second generation constellation are either 

under construction or awaiting launch. All satellites in the constellation include 

AIS payloads. ORBCOMM ordered the satellites in 2008 from Sierra Nevada 

Corporation (SNC), with subcontractors Boeing and ITT Corporation. In 2011, 

ORBCOMM announced its plan to use SpaceX’s Falcon 9 vehicle to launch the 

constellation. 

A prototype ORBCOMM OG2 satellite was launched by SpaceX as a secondary 

payload on a cargo resupply mission to the ISS in October 2012. The launch met 

its primary objective of sending the Dragon spacecraft to the ISS, but did not 

deploy the ORBCOMM satellite into the desired orbit due to an anomaly on one 

of the Falcon 9’s first stage engines. To remain fully compliant with the safety plan 

approved for Dragon delivery to the ISS, SpaceX did not have the Falcon 9 execute 

the second burn necessary to deliver the ORBCOMM satellite into a higher orbit.

ORBCOMM currently plans to launch its remaining satellites on two separate 

Falcon 9 vehicles in 2013 and 2014. The missions may or may not include a 

replacement satellite to ORBCOMM OG2-01. Between 8 and 12 satellites will be 

launched in 2013, and the remainder of the 18-satellite constellation will launch in 

2014. 

ORBCOMM revenues 

are presented in 

Figure 16. 

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Millions

Figure 16. Publicly Reported ORBCOMM Annual Revenue
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 46 •

Aprize Satellite

Aprize Satellite, Inc. plans to deploy a 12-satellite system, depending on 

funding opportunities and customer demand for data communication and 

AIS data service. A total of eight AprizeStar (also known by its International 

Telecommunications Union (ITU) registration as LatinSat) satellites weighing 

10 kilograms (22 pounds) each, launched as secondary payloads on Russian 

Dnepr vehicles: two satellites a year in 2002, 2004, 2009, and 2011. Two more 

satellites were scheduled to launch as secondary payloads on a Dnepr vehicle 

in 2012. The launch was delayed and is currently expected to take place in 

2013. Two more satellites are expected to be deployed by another Dnepr 

multi-manifest launch in early 2014. The satellites have an estimated orbit life 

of 10 years; therefore, the company needs to launch at least 6 more satellites 

before 2019 to maintain a 12-satellite constellation. This includes two satellites 

to complete the constellation and four to replace the satellites launched in 

2002 and 2004. In the years following 2014, the company expects to continue 

launching two AprizeSat satellites every year or two for as long as Dnepr 

cluster launches are available. Any additional satellites are likely to launch as 

secondary payloads and not generate demand for a launch. 

O3b

O3b Networks, headquartered in St. John, Jersey, Channel Islands, is a new 

company that plans to provide broadband connectivity to underserved parts of 

the world with support and funding from high profile investors, including major 

GEO commercial satellite operator SES, Google, Liberty Global, and HSBC. 

The O3b constellation will operate in the Ka-band in an equatorial orbit with a

minimum of five satellites to cover +/- 45 degrees of latitude around the Equator. 

Additional satellites can be added as needed to meet demand. 

Offering to bridge the gap between current satellites and fiber optic cables, O3b 

Networks plans to provide fiber-like trunking capacity to telecommunications 

operators and backhaul directly to 3G Cellular and WiMAX towers. In the run-up 

to the launch of its first satellites in 2013, O3b has been successful in having 

its capacity booked by regional telecommunications companies and Internet 

service providers. O3b Networks teamed with VSAT satellite services provider 

Harris CapRock to deliver connectivity solutions to maritime clients, including 

Royal Caribbean Cruises. 

Thales Alenia Space is under contract to build 16 communications satellites 

for O3b; 12 are currently under construction. O3b is under a launch services 

agreement with Arianespace for two Soyuz launches from French Guiana in 

2013. Each Soyuz will deploy four O3b satellites in MEO in the equatorial plane. 

In late 2011, O3b raised $137 million to cover the construction and launch of an 

additional four satellites to launch on a Soyuz in 2014. 
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast

• 47 •

Telecommunications Satellite Fleet Replacement after 202

NGSO telecommunications satellites launched in the 1990s and early 2000s had 

an estimated design life of four (ORBCOMM) to seven and a half (Globalstar) 

years (see Table 16). However, the majority of these satellites are still on 

orbit and continue to provide telecommunications services; most of the first 

generation Globalstar, Iridium, and ORBCOMM constellations have exceeded 

their design life by two to three times. For financial reasons, many of the 

satellites were not replaced when their estimated design life ended. Operators 

were able to continue providing services until second generation spacecraft 

were ready. 

Now most of the satellites launched or prepared for launch by NGSO 

communications satellite operators have an estimated design life of 10 to 

15 years, which places the estimated replacement dates beyond 2022. The 

exception is ORBCOMM, with a minimum design life estimate of a conservative 

five years. If any of these satellites need to be replaced within the 2013-2022 

period, they will likely be launched as piggyback payloads, unlikely to generate 

demand for a dedicated launch. 

Satellite 

System

1st Generation 

Satellite Design Life Current Statu

2nd or Current 

Generation Satellite 

Design Lif

Globalstar 7.5 years Most of the satellites on orbit, partially operational 15 years

Iridium 5 years Most of the satellites on orbit, operational 10 years (design), 

15 years (projected)

ORBCOMM 4 years Most of the satellites on orbit, operational More than 5 years

Aprize Satellite N/A 8 on orbit, 6 in service, launching more to 

complete system 10 years

O3b Network N/A Under construction 10 years

Table 16. Commercial Telecommunications Satellite Systems’ Design Life
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 48 •

Commercial Remote Sensing Satellite

Remote sensing refers to any orbital platform with optical or radar sensors 

trained on Earth to gather data for geographic analysis, military use, 

meteorology, or climatology. The remote sensing industry comprises three 

markets: aerial imagery, satellite imagery, and geographic information systems 

(GIS). GIS consists of images obtained from aircraft or satellites integrated 

with layers of information, usually customized according to user needs. GIS 

constitutes the largest part of the industry both in terms of demand and revenue 

generation.

The commercial satellite remote sensing market consists of companies that 

operate satellites with optical or radar sensors trained on Earth to capture 

imagery used to generate revenue. This contrasts with remote sensing 

satellites funded by governments for military use or science missions. However, 

governments often serve as the largest customers of commercial satellite remote 

sensing companies and are often key partners in developing and operating 

expensive satellites. To generate profits and produce a return on investment, all 

companies that operate remote sensing satellites also provide GIS services.

Remote Sensing Launch Demand Summa

The commercial remote sensing industry is characterized by relatively stable 

satellite replacement schedules. Launches of commercial remote sensing 

satellites will take place at an average of 0.8 per year through the forecast 

period. A peak in the number of launches can be seen in 2015, reflecting 

projected deployment of satellites operated by DMCii. Figure 17 provides a 

launch history and projected launch plans for commercial remote sensing 

satellites.

1 1

3

2

1 1 1

3

2

1 1 1

0

1

2

3

4

20032004200520062007200820092010

2011

20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Launches

Figure 17. Commercial Remote Sensing Launch History and Projected Launch Plans

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020

Worldview-3 - 

Atlas V

DMC3-1 - 

Dnepr

EROS C - 

TBD

Rapideye - 

TBD

RCM-1 - TBD GeoEye-2 - 

Atlas V

DMC3-2 - 

Dnepr

TerraSar-NG - 

TBD

DMC3-3 - 

Dnepr
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast

• 49 •

Licenses issued by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmosphe

Administration 

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) licenses 

U.S. commercial remote sensing systems in accordance with the Land Remote 

Sensing Policy Act of 1992. There have been 27 remote sensing licenses 

issued or amended since 1993. Ten of these licenses have been granted to 

DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, or their predecessor companies, and several have been 

issued for university cubesat missions (see Table 17).

License

Date License

Granted or Updated Remar

DigitalGlobe 1/4/1993 License originally issued to WorldView for EarlyBird satellite.

ORBIMAGE (d/b/a 

GeoEye) 5/5/1994 License originally issued to Orbital Sciences Corporation for OrbView-3.

DigitalGlobe 9/6/1994 License issued for QuickBird-1 and QuickBird-2.

AstroVision 1/23/1995 First license issued for a commercial GSO system.

Ball Aerospace & 

Technologies 11/21/2000 First license issued for a commercial SAR system.

DigitalGlobe 12/14/2000 License issued for a QuickBird follow-on.

ORBIMAGE (d/b/a/ 

GeoEye) 6/17/2003 Update to license for SeaStar satellite, changing name to OrbView-2. Originally issued to Orbital Sciences Corporation.

DigitalGlobe 9/29/2003 License issued for four-satellite high-resolution system (WorldView).

Northrop Grumman 2/20/2004 License issued for MEO system called “Continuum” with 0.5-meter resolution.

ORBIMAGE (d/b/a/ 

GeoEye) 8/12/2004 License originally issued to ORBIMAGE, Inc. for OrbView-5, now GeoEye-1.

Technica 12/8/2005 License issued for four-satellite EagleEye system.

ORBIMAGE (d/b/a/ 

GeoEye) 1/10/2006 IKONOS system license transfer from Space Imaging to ORBIMAGE

Northrop Grumman 8/24/2009 License issued for commercial SAR system called “Trinidad.”

GeoEye, Inc. 1/14/2010 Amendment of IKONOS Block II license to change system name to GeoEye-2

and GeoEye-3.

DISH Operating LLC 2/2/2010 License transfer from EchoStar to DISH for GSO satellite (Echostar-XVI) with 

television camera for low-resolution imagery.

Skybox Imaging, Inc. 4/20/2010 License issued for LEO satellite SkySat-1. Application for amendment to 

include SkySat-2 submitted in 2011.

GeoMetWatch 9/15/2010 License issued for GSO satellite GMW-1.

Kentucky Space 10/19/2010 License issued for LEO cubesat KySat-1. Satellite launched with NASA’

Glory in 2011. 

University of California 11/17/2010 License issued for use of cell phone camera aboard cubesat UCISAT-1.

University of Michigan 8/11/2011 License issued for use of imaging sensor aboard cubesat M-Cubed. Satellite 

launched with NPP in 2011.

Kentucky Space 1/27/2012 License issued for operation of KySat-2, a replacement for KySat-1, whi

was lost in a launch failure.

Cosmogia, Inc. 2/10/2012 License issued for operation of cubesat Dove-1. The satellite launched 

aboard the inaugural flight of Antares in 2013.

Drexel University 3/30/2012 License issued for operation of cubesat DragonSat-1. Satellite schedule to 

launch with SpaceX ISS resupply mission 2 aboard Falcon 9.

Cosmogia, Inc. 5/4/2012 License issued for operation of Dove-2.

Cosmogia, Inc. 9/2/2012 License issued for operation of Dove-3 and Dove-4.

California Polytechnic 

State University 12/4/2012 License issued for operation of the cubesat IPEX.

Southern Stars 2/18/2013 License issued for operation of cubesat SkyCube.

Table 17. NOAA Remote Sensing Licenses
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 50 •

Since the last NGSO report was published, NOAA issued two licenses to 

Cosmogia for operation of three test and demonstration cubesats (Dove2 through Dove-4), one license to CalPoly for operation of a test and 

demonstration cubesat called IPEX, and one license to Southern Stars for 

operation of an education and outreach cubesat called SkyCube. Launch of 

these satellites is captured in the Other Commercially Launched Satellites 

section of the report, as they are not commercial remote sensing systems.

Commercial remote sensing satellites in the near-term portion of this report 

(2012-2015) were announced by their respective companies, are under 

construction, and are scheduled for a launch. Satellites projected for the latter 

portion of the report (2016-2021) are based on published statements regarding 

the service lives of satellites currently operating on orbit.

The major companies operating or actively developing NGSO remote sensing 

satellites across the globe are profiled below in Table 18. These satellites have 

been or are likely to be launched commercially. 

System Operator Manufacturer Satellites

Mass 

kg (lb)

Highest Resolutio

(m)

Revisit

Time 

(hrs.

Launch

Yea

Operational & Under Developmen

DMC3

DMC 

International 

Imaging Ltd.

SSTL DMC3 1-3 350 (771) 1 24 2014

EROS ImageSat 

International

Israel Aircraft 

Industries

EROS A

EROS B

EROS C

280 (617)

350 (771)

350 (771)

1.5

0.7

0.7

24-288

2000

2006

2016

GeoEye DigitalGlobe

General 

Dynamics 

Lockheed 

Martin

GeoEye-1

GeoEye-2

907 (2,000)

2,087 (4,601)

0.41

0.34

50-199

50-199

2008

2016

IKONOS DigitalGlobe Lockheed

Martin IKONOS 816 (1,800) 1 <72 199

PlanetIQ PlanetIQ TBD PlanetIQ 

1-12 75 (165) N/A N/A TBD

QuickBird DigitalGlobe Ball 

Aerospace QuickBird 909 (2,004) 0.6 60-134 2001

RADARSAT MDA MDA

RADARSAT-1

RADARSAT-2

RCM

2,750 (6,050)

2,195 (4,840)

1,200 (2,645)

8

3

TBD

48-72

48-72

TBD

1995

2007

2018

RapidEye RapidEye 

AG MDA RapidEye 1-5 150 (330) 6.5 24 2008

SkySat SkyBox 

Imaging

SkyBox 

Imaging

SkySat-1

SkySat-2

91 (200)

91 (200)

<1

<1 <24 20132014

TerraSAR-X 

and 

TanDEM-X

BMBF/DLR/

Astrium Astrium

TerraSAR-X

TanDEM-X

TerraSAR-NG

1,023 (2,255)

1,023 (2,255)

TBD

3

0.5

TBD

264

264

TBD

2007

2010

2015

WorldView DigitalGlobe Ball 

Aerospace

WorldView-1

WorldView-2

WorldView-3

2,500 (5,510)

2,800 (6,175)

2,800 (6,175)

0.5

0.5

0.5

41-130

26-89

TBD

2007

2009

2014

Table 18. Commercial Remote Sensing Systems
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast

• 51 •

DigitalGlobe

Established in 1992, DigitalGlobe is a commercial high-resolution remote 

sensing satellite operator and GIS provider headquartered in Longmont, 

Colorado. The company operates imaging satellites and provides GIS products 

using satellite and aerial imagery. Following a merger with GeoEye, Inc. on 

January 31, 2013, DigitalGlobe currently operates five remote sensing satellites: 

IKONOS, GeoEye-1, QuickBird, WorldView-1, and WorldView-2. In August

2010, the company announced Ball Aerospace would build a new satellite, 

WorldView-3, to launch aboard an Atlas V intermediate- to heavy-class vehicle 

in 2014. WorldView-3 will collect imagery in eight short-wave-infrared bands 

plus eight multispectral bands, which will extend the already industry-leading 

capabilities of DigitalGlobe’s commercial imaging constellation. Another satellite, 

GeoEye-2, is currently under construction, and the company expects to place it 

in storage upon completion to serve as a ground spare.

DigitalGlobe’s first satellite, QuickBird, was launched in 2001 and is projected 

to continue operating until late 2013. WorldView-3 is expected to have a service 

life of up to 12 years. DigitalGlobe’s two other satellites, WorldView-1 and 

WorldView-2, are expected to reach end of operational life in the second quarter 

of 2018 and the first quarter of 2021, respectively.

The U.S. National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) partially funded the 

development of the current generation of DigitalGlobe (including the former 

GeoEye) satellites. In 2010, NGA awarded both DigitalGlobe and GeoEye 

10-year contracts worth up to $7.35 billion as part of the EnhancedView 

program. These contracts intended to extend NGA’s ability to tap imagery from 

the private sector and help guarantee the availability of commercial remote 

sensing products into the decade. In July 2012, due to planned cuts to the 

EnhancedView budget, DigitalGlobe and GeoEye announced plans to merge, 

a process completed in January 2013. The merger resulted in one less launch 

planned over the next 10 years. The GeoEye-2 satellite was placed in storage as 

a ground spare. 

DMC International Imaging

DMC International Imaging, Ltd. (DMCii), based in the United Kingdom,

operates the Disaster Monitoring Constellation (DMC). DMCii is a wholly owned 

subsidiary of Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd. (SSTL).

DMC is composed of SSTL-built satellites for Algeria (Alsat-1), China (Beijing-1), 

Nigeria (Nigeriasat-1, Nigeriasat-2, and NX), Spain (Deimos-1), Turkey (Bilsat-1), 

and the United Kingdom (UK-DMC and UK-DMC2). The satellites orbit at 

altitude of 700 kilometers (435 miles). The constellation’s primary purpose is to 

distribute imagery for commercial and humanitarian purposes.

DMC became fully operational in 2006, with satellites evenly distributed in a 

single sun-synchronous orbit (SSO). The constellation currently consists of nine 

satellites launched between 2002 and 2011, each owned and controlled by the 

contributing nation. Nigeria’s satellites Nigeriasat-2 and NX were launched in 

2011 and are the latest members of the DMC constellation.
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 52 •

In June 2011, DMCii signed a seven-year deal with China-based Twenty First 

Century Aerospace Technology Company Ltd. (21AT) to lease the imaging 

capacity aboard a three-satellite constellation called DMC3. The lease allows 

21AT to obtain timely imagery without procuring and operating a constellation 

themselves. The constellation, designed and manufactured by SSTL, will be 

owned and operated by DMCii and is forecast for a 2015 launch. Each DMC3 

satellite will provide one-meter panchromatic and four-meter multispectral 

imaging.

BMBF/DLR/Astr

TerraSAR-X and TanDEM-X were manufactured and are operated through a 

public-private partnership arrangement between German Federal Ministry 

of Education and Research (Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung; 

BMBF), the German Aerospace Center (DLR) and Astrium. Imagery is marketed 

and sold by Astrium GEO-Information Services, along with products obtained 

through SPOT, Pléiades, Formosat-2, and Deimos-1 satellites. Imagery obtained 

from the satellites is of value for users worldwide in programs like the European 

Global Monitoring for Environment and Security program and the international 

Global Earth Observation System of Systems.

TerraSAR-X launched aboard a Russian Dnepr vehicle in 2007 and provides up 

to one-meter resolution X-band radar imagery for government and commercial 

use. It is the first of Germany’s TerraSAR-X generation (TSX-1) of synthetic 

aperture radar (SAR) satellites. The satellite reaches the end of its design life in 

2012 but should continue operating until at least 2015. 

The second member of the TSX-1 generation is the TerraSAR-X Add-On for 

Digital Elevation Measurement (TanDEM-X) satellite. It launched in 2010, also 

aboard a Dnepr vehicle. TanDEM-X provides government and commercial 

clients with digital elevation model (DEM) data. DEM data captures the 

raw surface structure of the Earth, without vegetation and artificial objects. 

TanDEM-X expects to remain operational until about 2018.

Work is currently underway at Astrium on a second generation of SAR satellites 

called TSX-2. This generation will consist of at least one satellite, called 

TerraSAR-NG, planned for launch in 2015. The launch vehicle has not yet been 

selected, but leading contenders include the medium Dnepr or Indian PSLV.

As part of its strategic planning, DLR and Astrium are also discussing a next 

generation of satellites beyond the 2018 timeframe to replace the TSX-1 

satellites. These are not included in the report because system definition has not 

started. As with TerraSAR-X and TanDEM-X, imagery from these future satellites 

is expected to be available for scientific and commercial purposes.
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast

• 53 •

ImageSat International N

Israel-based ImageSat, founded as West Indian Space in 1997, and officially 

a Netherlands Antilles company, provides commercial sub-meter resolution 

imagery with the Earth Remote Observation Satellite (EROS) family of 

satellites. Like many remote sensing companies, ImageSat’s major customers 

are governments. Israel Aerospace Industries Ltd. manufactures the EROS 

satellites, and ELBIT- Electro Optics Industries develops the imaging system.

ImageSat currently operates two satellites, EROS A and EROS B. EROS A 

launched in December 2000 aboard a Russian Start-1 small launch vehicle and 

should continue to operate until at least 2014, four years beyond its projected 

service life. EROS B launched aboard a Start-1 in 2006 and should continue to 

operate until 2020.

Israel Aircraft Industries is currently building the EROS-C satellite. Though 

no launch year has been selected, it is assumed EROS-C will launch in 

approximately three years (2016) aboard a small vehicle.

MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associates

MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associates, Ltd. (MDA) is a global communications 

and information company providing operational solutions to commercial and 

government organizations worldwide. The company is a commercial provider 

of advanced geospatial information products derived from the high-resolution 

RADARSAT-1 and RADARSAT-2 radar satellites. It also markets and sells data 

derived from commercial optical satellites and from aerial systems.

The Canadian Space Agency (CSA) operates RADARSAT-1, while RADARSAT-2 

is operated by MDA in partnership with the Government of Canada. On 

November 4, 1995, the RADARSAT-1 satellite launched aboard a Delta II launch 

vehicle. RADARSAT-2 launched aboard a Starsem Soyuz intermediate vehicle 

on December 14, 2007.

To provide space-based radar data continuity, the Government of Canada, 

through the CSA, proposed the three-satellite RADARSAT Constellation Mission 

(RCM). In March 2010, the CSA authorized MDA to perform the Phase C design 

phase of the RCA program, after MDA successfully completes Phases A and 

B. In January 2013, CSA signed a CAD $706-million contract with MDA for the 

construction, launch and initial operations of the three RCM satellites.

Each RCM satellite will have a mass of about 1,200 kilograms (2,600 pounds). 

All three satellites will be launched together on a single launch vehicle, which 

has not yet been selected.
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 54 •

PlanetIQ

PlanetIQ, established in 2012, plans to operate 12 microsatellites in support of 

weather, climate, and space weather data requirements. The satellites are not 

equipped with imaging sensors; instead, they will collect environmental earth 

observation data by measuring the signal strength of GPS satellites in a proven 

process called radio occultation. Total cost for the space segment is expected 

to be about $160 million, which is currently being raised. Because funding is not 

yet secure and details regarding the satellite constellation are not yet available, 

launches of PlanetIQ satellites are not included in this year’s forecast. 

RapidEy

RapidEye is headquartered near Berlin, Germany and has additional offices in 

Luxembourg, Canada, and the United States. The company operates a fivesatellite multispectral remote sensing constellation that provides wide-area, 

repetitive coverage and 5-meter-pixel-size multi-spectral imagery. MDA was the 

prime contractor for the mission, responsible for design and implementation. 

MDA subcontracted SSTL in the UK to construct the satellites

The RapidEye constellation launched aboard a Dnepr launch vehicle from 

Baikonur, Kazakhstan on August 29, 2008. The five satellites are expected to

remain operational long after their original planned lifetime of seven years.

Though planning for the next generation of satellites is underway, RapidEye has 

not released details publicly. 

Skybox Imaging

Skybox Imaging, Inc., based in Mountain View, California, is a new entrant to 

the commercial satellite remote sensing industry. The company was awarded 

a NOAA license for SkySat-1 on April 20, 2010, and has applied to amend the 

license to include a second satellite, SkySat-2. Both satellites will operate in 

a polar orbit and constitute the first elements of a projected 20-plus satellite 

constellation. Skybox manufactures and operates its own satellites and will 

provide frequently updated imagery online.

SkySat-1 is scheduled to launch in 2013 aboard a Dnepr vehicle along with 

several other satellites. SkySat-2, also multi-manifested with other payloads, 

should follow in 2014 aboard a Soyuz vehicle. 
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast

• 55 •

Commercial Cargo and Crew Transportation Services

Commercial cargo and crew transportation capabilities include commercial 

launches of cargo and humans to LEO. Specifically, commercial cargo and 

crew transportation includes NASA’s COTS development, CRS to the ISS, and 

commercial crew development efforts. This section also describes non-ISS 

commercial human spaceflight; emerging activities related to Bigelow orbital 

facilities, Excalibur Almaz, and Inspiration Mars flights; and other potential 

sources of future launch demand. 

Commercial Cargo and Crew Transportation Services Launch

Demand Summary

Seventy-four launches are projected from 2013 to 2022, as compared to 64 

launches in last year’s report. The increase in flights for the near term is due to 

the delays of Orbital’s Antares test flight and subsequently the Cygnus COTS 

demo. For the mid-term (2015 to 2017) the increase in flights is caused by the 

inclusion of seven new commercial crew development test flights, which were 

recently announced.

Commercial cargo and crew transportation services make up 57 percent of 

launches in this report. If commercial vehicles begin launching Bigelow space 

stations, Excalibur Almaz modules, and Inspiration Mars missions, the number 

of launches in this section could grow in the out-years. The 74 launches in this 

section carry financial and technical risk, because the launches are on new 

launch vehicles or new spacecraft developed with NASA-appropriated funds. 

This launch projection represents NASA’s current plans for commercial cargo 

and crew services to the ISS. Figure 18 provides a launch history and projected 

launch plans for commercial transportation services.

1

2

4

5

8 8 8 8

9

8 8 8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

20032004200520062007200820092010

2011

20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Launches

Figure 18. Commercial Cargo and Crew Transportation Services Launch History and 

Projected Launch Plans
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 56 •

Figure 19 shows the distribution of ISS commercial cargo and crew flights from 

2013 to 2022. One test flight of Orbital’s Antares, and one Orbital COTS flight are 

also included.

NASA COTS

In 2006, NASA announced the COTS program. COTS focuses on the 

development and demonstration of commercial cargo transportation systems. 

Total Space Act Agreement (SAA) funding under this program was $891 million. 

Under COTS, SpaceX developed the intermediate Falcon 9 launch vehicle 

and the Dragon spacecraft. Orbital developed the Cygnus spacecraft and the 

medium Antares launch vehicle.

In May of 2012, SpaceX completed its final milestones under the COTS program 

with the Dragon spacecraft’s successful berthing and cargo delivery to the 

ISS, along with the subsequent demonstration of safe cargo recovery back to 

earth. The test flight of Antares launched on April 21, 2013. Antares successfully 

deployed a mass simulator. Orbital’s COTS demonstration mission is planned for 

mid-2013.

NASA CR

In 2008, NASA awarded two CRS contracts to SpaceX and Orbital. SpaceX 

won a contract valued at $1.6 billion for 12 flights through 2015, and Orbital 

won a $1.9 billion contract for 8 flights during the same period. Operational 

flights began in October 2012, with the successful launch of SpaceX’s Dragon 

resupplying the ISS. Orbital’s resupply missions will commence after successful 

completion of their COTS demonstration mission. Subsequently, approximately 

six commercial cargo flights are expected annually through 2022.

Crew

Crew Test Crew Test Crew Test Crew Crew Crew Crew Crew

Crew Test Crew Test Crew Test Crew Cargo Crew Crew Crew

SpaceX Crew Test Crew Cargo Cargo Cargo Cargo Cargo

SpaceX SpaceX SpaceX SpaceX Cargo Cargo Cargo Cargo Cargo Cargo

SpaceX SpaceX SpaceX SpaceX Cargo Cargo Cargo Cargo Cargo Cargo

Orbital Orbital SpaceX SpaceX Cargo Cargo Cargo Cargo Cargo Cargo

SpaceX Orbital Orbital Orbital Orbital Cargo Cargo Cargo Cargo Cargo Cargo

SpaceX SpaceX Orbital Orbital Orbital Orbital Cargo Cargo Cargo Cargo Cargo Cargo

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Commercial Orbital Transportation Service Mission

ISS Commercial Resupply Service Mission

Future ISS Cargo Delivery

Future ISS Crew Delivery

Antares test flight (in Technology Test and Demo) `

Commercial Crew Development Flight

Figure 19. Forecast of COTS, CRS. and Commercial Crew Missions4

4

 Sources: NASA ISS Flight Plan, March 28, 2013, and NASA FY 2014 Budget Estimates: NASA Mission Launches (FY 2013-2020)
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast

• 57 •

NASA Commercial Crew

To stimulate commercial development of a crew transportation capability, NASA 

initiated the Commercial Crew Development (CCDev) effort in 2010 with $50 

million of 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act funding. CCDev 

focused on development of commercial space transportation concepts and 

enabling capabilities. The 2010 CCDev awardees were Blue Origin, Boeing, 

Paragon Space Development Corporation, Sierra Nevada Corporation, and 

United Launch Alliance (ULA).

In 2011, after completion of the initial CCDev effort, NASA continued investing 

in commercial crew transportation development with a second competition 

known as CCDev2. This follow-on effort further advanced commercial crew 

space transportation system concepts, maturing the design and development of 

system elements such as launch vehicles and spacecraft. Blue Origin, Boeing, 

Sierra Nevada Corporation, and SpaceX won awards totaling $315 million. 

Additionally, NASA awarded unfunded agreements to provide limited technical 

assistance for advancement of commercial crew space transportation to ULA; 

Alliant Techsystems (ATK), who is partnering with EADS Astrium; and Excalibur

Almaz, Inc. 

In 2012, NASA announced the next phase of commercial crew development, 

Commercial Crew Integrated Capability (CCiCAP). This new initiative is to 

facilitate industry’s development of an integrated crew transportation system. 

CCiCap is expected to result in significant maturation of commercial crew 

transportation systems. Boeing, SpaceX, and Sierra Nevada Corporation won 

awards totaling over $1.1 billion. For the next step, in December 2012, NASA 

awarded $30 million in Certification Products Contracts (CPC) to Boeing, Sierra 

Nevada, and SpaceX. Under this contract, each of these companies will work 

toward certifying its spacecraft as safe to carry humans to the ISS.

NASA expects commercial crew transportation services to the ISS to begin 

by late 2017, with two flights per year. These flights are included in this year’s 

report. Some providers within the program anticipate flying as early as 2015. 

However, reductions in program funding below NASA’s requested levels could 

delay the development of crew spacecraft. 

Table 19 describes NASA COTS, CRS, and CCDev Awards.
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 58 •

Bigelow Aerospac

Nevada-based Bigelow Aerospace is dedicated to developing and deploying 

expandable space habitat technology to support a variety of public and private 

activities including commercial space stations in LEO and NASA human 

spaceflight missions beyond LEO. Bigelow Aerospace has launched two 

prototype spacecraft, Genesis I and Genesis II, on separate Russian Dnepr 

launch vehicles in 2006 and 2007, respectively. Bigelow Aerospace used these 

missions to validate its habitat designs and engineering in an actual on-orbit 

environment.

Program

Year of

Space Act 

Agreement

Value of Space

Act Agreement Companies Vehicles and Technologie

COTS 2006 $396 million SpaceX Dragon

COTS 2006 $207 million Kistler5 K

COTS 2008 $288 million Orbital Cygnus

CRS 2008 $1.6 billion SpaceX Dragon (12 flights)

CRS 2008 $1.9 billion Orbital Cygnus (8 flights)

CCDev 2010 $20 million Sierra Nevada 

Corp. Dream Chaser

CCDev 2010 $18 million Boeing CST-100

CCDev 2010 $6.7 million United Launch 

Alliance (ULA) Atlas V human rating

CCDev 2010 $3.7 million Blue Origin Launch abort systems

CCDev 2010 $1.4 million Paragon 

Space Life support

CCDev2 2011 $112.9 million Boeing CST-100 design maturation

CCDev2 2011 $105.6 million Sierra Nevada 

Corp. Dream Chaser design maturation

CCDev2 2011 $75 million SpaceX Crewed Dragon development

CCDev2 2011 $22 million Blue Origin Launch abort systems

CCDev2 2011 Unfunded ULA Atlas V human rating

CCDev2 2011 Unfunded ATK/Astrium Liberty developmen

CCDev2 2011 Unfunded Excalibur 

Almaz Spacecraft development

CCiCAP 2012 $460 million Boeing CST-100 crewed maturation

CCiCAP 2012 $440 million SpaceX Crewed Dragon maturation

CCiCAP 2012 $212.5 million Sierra Nevada 

Corp.

Dream Chaser crewed 

maturation

CPC 2012 $10 million Boeing Crew Certification

CPC 2012 $10 million Sierra Nevada 

Corp. Crew Certification

CPC 2012 $10 million SpaceX Crew Certification

Table 19. NASA Commercial Crew and Cargo Awards

5

 In 2007, NASA terminated the Space Act Agreement with Kistler due to the company’s technical and financial

shortfalls.
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast

• 59 •

Bigelow is now in the process of constructing full-scale expandable modules. 

Specifically, the company is developing the BA 330, which will offer 330 cubic 

meters of internal volume and can accommodate a crew of up to six. The 

company is also working on two newer systems: the BA 2100 or ‘Olympus’, 

which, as the name indicates, will provide roughly 2,100 cubic meters of internal 

volume, and the Bigelow Expandable Activity Module (BEAM), a technology 

pathfinder for the ISS. In December of 2012, NASA awarded Bigelow Aerospace 

a $17.8 million contract to develop the BEAM, which will launch on the eighth 

SpaceX CRS flight in 2015. The BEAM is scheduled for a nominal two-year 

technology demonstration period, wherein ISS crewmembers will gather 

performance data on the performance of the module. The BEAM mission period 

may be extended by NASA, and at the end of its life, the BEAM will be jettisoned 

from the ISS and will burn up during reentry.

Bigelow Aerospace is also involved in crew transportation. The company 

became a member of the Boeing CCDev team working on the CST-100 reusable 

in-space crew transport vehicle. Additionally, Bigelow Aerospace and SpaceX 

agreed to conduct a joint marketing effort to offer rides on SpaceX’s Dragon 

and Falcon 9 launch vehicle to carry passengers to Bigelow habitats orbiting 

the Earth. Bigelow Aerospace has signed memorandums of understanding with 

national space agencies, companies, and governmental entities in the UAE, 

Netherlands, Sweden, Singapore, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Australia.

Bigelow Aerospace has also completed a substantial expansion to its north Las 

Vegas manufacturing plant. The company’s new 180,572 square foot addition 

now increases the size of Bigelow Aerospace facilities to a total of 341,551 

square feet.

Currently, with the exception of the BEAM launch aboard the eighth CRS flight, 

no launch contracts have been publicly announced. Such contracts will likely 

not be announced until the company can secure viable crew transportation, 

such as the Boeing CST-100 or SpaceX Dragon capsules. As a result, launch 

demand associated with Bigelow Aerospace is not included in this section.

Excalibur Almaz, Limite

Excalibur Almaz, Limited (EAL), an Isle of Man company, uses elements of a 

legacy Soviet military space program known as Almaz. The system includes 

four three-person reusable return vehicles (RRV) and two Salyut-type Almaz 

orbital space stations that can stay on-orbit autonomously for one week or dock 

with the ISS. One of the RRVs will be equipped as an unmanned microgravity 

laboratory to assist with science flights to LEO.

EAL engaged in an unfunded SAA with NASA for commercial crew 

transportation, as part of CCDev2 activities, and became the first company 

to complete all of its SAA milestones. During the partnership, EAL and 

NASA reviewed the design of the new RRV, its system requirements, and its 

compatibility with launch vehicle alternatives. If in the future NASA decides to 

use the system, the baseline vehicle will be the Atlas V.
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 60 •

In June 2012, the company announced plans to ferry passengers to and from 

lunar orbit, with tickets costing around $155 million. EAL intends to begin 

flight tests of the Almaz hardware by late 2014 and to launch its first revenuegenerating flight as early as the fourth quarter of 2015. Current plans are for the 

reentry vehicles to launch atop Soyuz launch vehicles. EAL’s key partners are 

NPO Mashinostroyenia (the original developer of Almaz), EADS Astrium, and 

Japan Manned Space Systems Corporation. 

If EAL’s plans come to fruition on its current schedule, it could create additional 

demand for commercial launches. However, details regarding financing have 

not been provided publicly, and no launch contracts have been announced. As 

a result, launch demand associated with EAL is not included in this report.

Inspiration Mars

The Inspiration Mars Foundation is mounting a privately funded crewed Mars 

flyby mission scheduled for 2018. The project aims to take advantage of a 

planetary alignment that will allow a Mars flyby and return in 501 days. 

The company plans to choose a space capsule and rocket from those already 

on the market and to modify them to carry two people. The company is looking 

at several scenarios, from one launch to multiple launches, and reviewing 

several launch vehicles and capsules. 

Inspiration Mars Foundation Chairman Dennis Tito will personally fund mission 

development for the first two years, during which time additional fundraising and 

support will be garnered. As no launch contracts have been announced, launch 

demand associated with the Inspiration Mars Foundation is not included in this 

report.

Other Sources of Future Launch Deman

Planetary Resources, the B612 Foundation, and Golden Spike are three 

examples of commercial ventures that have the potential to drive launches in 

future forecasts. At this time, launch contracts have not been signed for any 

of the missions, so launch demand associated with these companies is not 

included in the forecast.

Planetary Reso

In April 2012, Planetary Resources, Inc., a company formed by Space 

Adventures founder Eric Anderson and X PRIZE Chairman Peter Diamandis, 

introduced its plans to mine near-Earth asteroids for raw materials. Planetary 

Resources has entered into an agreement with Virgin Galactic to launch several 

constellations of Arkyd-100 Series LEO space telescopes on Virgin Galactic’s 

LauncherOne. LauncherOne is still under development with commercial flights 

estimated to begin in 2016. 
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast

• 61 •

The B612 Foundati

The B612 Foundation is a non-profit organization that intends to create the 

first comprehensive, dynamic map of our inner solar system and show the 

current and future locations and trajectories of Earth-crossing asteroids. The 

foundation’s Chairman and CEO is former astronaut Ed Lu. The B612 Foundation 

expects its Sentinel mission will be the first privately funded deep space 

mission. This mission would launch an infrared telescope into a Venus-like orbit 

around the sun in 2017 or 2018. 

Golden Spike

The Golden Spike Company formed to offer private human expeditions to 

the surface of the Moon by 2019 or 2020. The company’s president is former 

NASA Associate Administrator for Science Alan Stern, and its board is led by 

former Johnson Space Center director Gerry Griffin. Golden Spike estimates 

the cost for a two-person lunar surface mission will start at $1.4 billion for the 

first mission, and $1.6 billion for increasingly ambitious subsequent missions. 

Golden Spike has contracted with Northrop Grumman for the design of a new 

lunar lander.
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 62 •

OTHER COMMERCIALLY LAUNCHED 

This section contains predominantly government satellites launched 

commercially. It also includes university payloads that are scientific, education, 

or outreach. Though many government missions do not commercially procure or 

obtain commercial licenses for their launches, there are select missions that do, 

particularly by governments without domestic launch capabilities. 

In previous reports, Other Commercially Launched Satellites were discussed 

in the sections “Science and Engineering – Basic and Applied Research” and 

“Other Payloads Launched Commercially.” For clarity, these sections were 

combined to provide a more complete picture of the market of commercial 

launches procured by governments. Government Earth observation and remote 

sensing programs and other scientific missions are significant customers of 

commercial launch services to NGSO. 

Other Commercially Launched Satellites Demand Summar

The market characterization of the near term (2013-2016) includes 12 

manifested basic and applied scientific research launches and 4 remote 

sensing launches for countries without indigenous launch capability. For the 

period 2017-2022, the application of a forecasting method projects 12 basic and 

applied scientific research launches for an average of 2 in each of the 6 outyears. 

Figure 20 provides a launch history and projected launch plan demands for 

Other Commercially Launched Satellites.

At the beginning of 2012, four launches were forecasted, but only one launched, 

Gökturk-2. Three launches by foreign providers, for KOMPSAT-5, DubaiSat-2,

and the SWARM constellation, were delayed for various reasons. It is important 

to note that although these payloads and their associated launch vehicles have 

been delayed, the programs still expect to launch. Manifests and public sources 

point to these payloads launching in 2013. 

On December 18, 2012, a Chinese Long March 2D successfully launched 

Turkey’s Gökturk-2 remote sensing satellite. Development of Gökturk-1 

continues, with the launch delayed to 2014. Future Gökturk satellite launches 

are planned on a new Turkish small launch vehicle, slated to begin development 

in 2013. In effect, this will remove future Gökturk launches from the list of 

commercial launches to NGSO since there will be no longer international 

competition for launching these spacecraft. 
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast

• 63 •

Examples of missions in this category and within the near term manifest of this 

forecast include:

• ASNARO 1: ASNARO is a remote sensing satellite for the Japanese Ministry

of Economy, Trade, and Industry manufactured by the Nippon Electric 

Company (NEC). The satellite has a projected mass of 400 kilograms (882 

pounds) and will launch on a Dnepr in 2013.

• CASSIOPE: The Cascade, Smallsat, and Ionospheric Polar Explorer 

(CASSIOPE) spacecraft, manufactured by MDA, is scheduled to launch in 

2013 on a Falcon 9 launch vehicle. The payload has a mass of about 500 

kilograms (1,100 pounds). The satellite will space-qualify high-performance 

payload components that will be used in the Cascade mission, also 

developed by MDA. 

• DragonLab: DragonLab is the configuration of the Dragon spacecraft

intended for commercial customers that will operate independently of 

missions to the ISS. DragonLab will function as an orbital laboratory that 

can host pressurized and unpressurized experiments. The spacecraft 

is expected to be recoverable and reusable. SpaceX anticipates one 

DragonLab mission per year starting in 2016.

Figure 20. Other Commercially Launched Satellites Launch History and Projected 

Launch Plans

2013 2014 2015 2016

ASNARO 1 - Dnepr Formosat 5 - 

Falcon 9

INGENIO - TBD DragonLab 1 - 

Falcon 9

CASSIOPE - Falcon 9 Gökturk 1 - TBD SAOCOM 1B - 

Falcon 9

DubaiSat-3 - TBD

DubaiSat-2 - Dnepr Kompsat 3A - Dnepr EnMAP - PSL

Kompsat 5 - Dnepr PAZ - Dnep

ORS-3 Enabler - 

Minotaur I

SAOCOM 1A - 

Falcon 9

SWARM (3) - Rockot

3

2

3 3

6 6

4 4

1 1

6

5

2

3

2

3

2 2 2 2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

20032004200520062007200820092010

2011

20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Launches
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 64 •

• DubaiSat-2, -3: Two remote sensing satellites, from the Emirates Institution 

for Advanced Science and Technology located in the UAE, are scheduled 

to launch as primary payloads in multi-manifested launches aboard Dnepr 

vehicles in 2013 and 2016. Each satellite has a mass of about 300 kilograms 

(661 pounds) and will provide improved resolution and faster download 

speeds.

• EnMAP: The German space agency, DLR, plans to launch the EnMap 

spacecraft in 2016 on a PSLV vehicle. The spacecraft has a mass of 810 

kilograms (1,786 pounds) and will study a range of ecological parameters, 

including agriculture, forestry, soil, and geology using its hyperspectral 

instruments. The mission is expected to last five years.

• FORMOSAT-5: Formosat-5 is manifested to launch in 2014 on a Falcon

9 vehicle. With a mass of 525 kilograms (1,157 pounds), the satellite will 

be equipped with an optical payload for remote sensing and a number of 

science payloads. The optical payload will provide panchromatic images 

with a 2-meter (6.5-foot) resolution and multispectral images with a 4-meter 

(13-foot) resolution.

• Gökturk-1: Gökturk-1 is an electro-optical earth observation satellite for 

the Turkish Ministry of Defense. Italian firm Telespazio is the manufacturer. 

The satellite is projected to have a mass of up to 5,000 kilograms (11,000 

pounds) and is expected to launch in 2014 on a medium to heavy launch 

vehicle. 

• INGENIO: INGENIO is the first Spanish optical Earth observation satellite. 

The mission will provide high-definition panchromatic and multi-spectral 

ground imaging for various applications that can be used in mapping, urban 

planning, agriculture, water management, environmental monitoring, and 

risk and safety management. Launch of the satellite is planned in 2015 on a 

medium to heavy launch vehicle.

• KOMPSAT-3A: Also known as KOMPSAT-3’s “brother satellite,” KOMPSAT3A will include the ability to obtain images in the infrared spectrum an

panchromatic images, allowing for temperature change monitoring. 

South Korea’s Korean Aerospace Research Institute (KARI) is developi

KOMPSAT-3A, which will launch in 2014 on a Dnepr vehicle

• KOMPSAT-5: KOMPSAT-5 is a 1,280-kilogram (2,816-pound) satellite with

a SAR platform. Originally scheduled for launch in 2011, the payload is 

now scheduled for a single-manifest Dnepr launch in 2013. The satellite will 

provide images up to 1-meter resolution for use in geographic information 

applications, environmental monitoring, and disaster response. KARI and

European manufacturer Thales Alenia Space manufactured the satellite, with 

Alcatel Alenia Space responsible for producing the X-band SAR sensor.
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast

• 65 •

• ORS-3 Enabler: ORS-3 is the third mission of the Operationally Responsive

Space (ORS) program. The payload is an experimental avionics package 

mounted to the last stage of the launch vehicle. The objective is to test 

space-based rocket tracking technology and an autonomous termination 

system. ORS-3 will be integrated into a Minotaur I for an FAA-licensed flight 

in 2013. This mission is using an FAA-licensed launch to demonstrate an 

alternative execution method for launch services that reduces overall costs.

• PAZ: PAZ is a radar satellite that will be operated by Hisdesat. It represents 

part of the Spanish National Earth Observation Program developed and 

managed jointly by the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Industry, 

Trade and Tourism. Imagery obtained by this satellite, which is based on the 

TSX-1 bus developed for Infoterra’s TerraSAR-X and TanDEM-X, will be used 

for national security and commercial purposes. PAZ is scheduled to launch 

aboard a Dnepr vehicle in 2014.

• SAOCOM-1A, -1B: SAOCOM-1A is part of Argentina’s SAR Observation &

Communication (SAOCOM) satellite program and will operate jointly with 

Italian satellites to provide information for emergency management. The 

satellite will capture high-resolution images, and when paired with the solid 

state recorder on board, will be able to store images and share them via its 

high-bit-rate downlink system. The second Argentine satellite, SAOCOM1B, will also communicate with Italian satellites to provide information for 

emergency management. The satellites will launch separately on Falcon 9 

vehicles in 2014 and 2015, respectively.

• SWARM 1, 2, 3: The SWARM constellation consists of three satellites and

is designed to improve knowledge of the Earth’s interior composition and 

climate. ESA selected EADS Astrium to develop and build the constellation 

of three satellites. The satellites will measure the strength and direction 

of the Earth’s magnetic field from a polar orbit. The SWARM constellation 

will launch in 2013 on a Rockot, one of the two small vehicle launches 

manifested during this forecast.

Method for Forecasting Launch Deman

This forecast revised the model for payloads and launches related to basic 

and applied scientific research that was applied in the 2012 NGSO report. 

The methodology features a five-year average that includes three prior years 

and two projected years (for this report, 2010-2014) with equal weight. This 

simple model is applied to payloads as well as launch vehicles pertaining to 

basic and applied scientific research beginning in 2017, the mid, and far outyears. This makes the out-years of the projection more sensitive to emerging 

trends identified in the near-term through research. Because launches of other 

payloads, from countries without indigenous launch capabilities, are infrequent, 

the model does not apply a forecasting method to this segment. This does 

not mean the actual demand is gone, but rather these types of payloads are 

irregular and efforts to forecast their occurrence in the out-years can lead to an 

overstatement of launch demand.
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 66 •

TECHNOLOGY TEST AND DEMONSTRATION L

Technology test and demonstration launches was previously part of last year’s 

Science and Engineering section. Technology test and demonstration launches 

are conducted to test primarily new launch vehicles such as Antares, Falcon 9, or 

Falcon Heavy. By their nature, they are uncommon, and one-off events. Placing 

technology test and demonstration launches in a separate section provides easy 

identification of these one-off events. 

Figure 21 provides a launch history and projected launch plans for technology 

test and demonstration launches.

The successful inaugural launch of Orbital’s Antares vehicle, which occurred in 

April 2013, is included in this section, as is the demonstration flight of SpaceX’s 

Falcon Heavy launch vehicle, planned for launch in 2013. The report also includes 

the technology test and demonstration launch of the Orion Multi Purpose Crew 

Vehicle (MPCV), planned to launch aboard a Delta IV Heavy in 2014. 

Figure 21. Technology Test and Demonstration Launch History and Projected Launch Plans

2013 2014

Test Package - Antares Orion MPCV - Delta IV Heavy

Test Package - Falcon Heavy

1 1 1 1

2

1

0

1

2

3

4

5

20032004200520062007200820092010

2011

20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Launches
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast

• 67 •

Microsatellites

Progress in electronics and other satellite component miniaturization has 

enabled spacecraft weighing as little as 0.01 to 10 kilograms, known as femto-, 

pico-, and nanosatellites. Table 20 presents the range of small satellite mass 

classes.

While pico- and femtosatellites are rare, micro- and nanosatellites, and 

specifically, a subset of nanosatellites called cubesats, constitute a substantial 

share of payloads launched commercially. Microsatellites, or microsats, are 

often multi-manifested with satellites of a similar class on small launch vehicles. 

Smaller microsats and nanosatellites, or nanosats, are usually launched as 

piggyback payloads.

In the last 10 years, both non-commercial and commercial launch vehicles 

launched a total of almost 300 microsats and smaller class satellites worldwide 

(see Table 21).

In 2003 to 2012, the majority of microsats were launched for government civil 

missions, whereas the nanosat market was dominated by universities (see 

Figure 22). The only two pico-satellites during this period were free-flying 

imagers DCAM 1 and DCAM 2, launched as part of the Japanese IKAROS

interplanetary solar sail mission in 2010.

Class Name Kilograms (kg) Pounds (lb)

Femto 0.01 - 0.1 0.02 - 0.2

Pico 0.1 - 1 0.2 - 2

Nano 1 - 10 2 - 22

Micro 10 - 200 22 - 441

Mini 200 - 600 441 - 1,323

Small 600 - 1,200 1,323 - 2,646

Table 20. Small Satellite Mass Classes

A piggyback payload is a spacecraft or satellite that is carried into space 

using excess launch capacity on a rocket. Spacecraft lighter than 100 kg 

are often launched as piggyback payloads. Piggyback launching allows 

operators to place their spacecraft in orbit at a significantly lower cost 

than launching as a primary payload. 

Type of Launch Microsatellites Nanosatellites Pico- and

Femtosatellites

Commercial 65 21 0

Non-Commercial 110 101 2

Total Payloads Launched 175 122 

Table 21. Micro and Smaller Satellites Launch in 2003-2012
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 68 •

Microsats rarely drive launch demand and nanosats almost never do. In the 

commercial space launch industry, launch providers are interested in creating 

space for smaller secondary payloads to drive the launch price down or 

increase profits. Although there have been a significant number of nanosats 

launched over the last 10 years, and more of them are expected to launch in the 

future, this increase is not expected to affect launch demand in the short term. 

The market situation may change when commercial suborbital reusable vehicles 

and small orbital launch vehicles (commercial and non-commercial) introduce 

new nanosat launch opportunities, dedicated to launching payloads of the 

nanosat and smaller classes.

Historically, a variety of launch vehicles have launched microsats and nanosats 

(see Figure 23). Over the past decade, the Russian Dnepr launch vehicle has 

launched the most micro- and nanosatellites. However, due to delays and 

uncertain launch schedules, there have been fewer Dnepr launches in the 

past two years, and the Atlas V (U.S.), Falcon 9 (U.S.), PSLV (India), and Vega 

(Europe) vehicles have launched more microsats and nanosatellites.

Military

21%

Figure 22. Microsatellites and Nanosatellites Launched in 2003-2012

Civil

53%

MICROSATELLI

University

13%

Commercial 

13%

NANOSATELLIT

Commercial 

2%

Civil

27%

Military

9%

University

62%

Figure 23. Microsatellites and Nanosatellites Launched by Vehicle, 2003-2012

MICROSATELLI

Ariane 5: 6%

Atlas V: 2%

Delta II: 4%

Delta IV: 1%

Dnepr: 

22%

Falcon 1: 3%

Falcon 9: 1%

H-II: 5%

Cosmos: 

12%

 Long March: 6%

Minotaur 1: 4%

Minotaur IV: 3%

Pegasus XL: 3%

PSLV: 7%

Rockot: 3%

Space Shuttle: 3%

Soyuz: 8%

Vega: 1%

Other: 8%

NANOSATELLIT

Atlas V: 9%

Delta II: 5%

Dnepr: 

18%

Falcon 1: 2%

Falcon 9: 7%

H-II: 10%

Cosmos: 2%

 Long March: 2%

Minotaur 1: 4%

Minotaur IV: 2%

M-V: 2%

PSLV: 16%

Rockot: 5%

Space Shuttle: 5%

Soyuz: 2%

Taurus: 2%

Vega: 

6%
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast

• 69 •

In the United States, the NASA Educational Launch of Nanosatellites (ELaNa) 

program promotes satellite building for space engineering and science education 

purposes by providing universities and other organizations developing small 

satellites with free launches aboard vehicles carrying larger primary missions 

for NASA or other U.S. Government agencies. These include non-commercial 

launches by vehicles like the Atlas V or commercial launches to the ISS by a 

Falcon 9 or Antares.

In the commercial launch sector, Virgin Galactic announced LauncherOne in 2012 

to launch satellites weighing up to 100 kilograms. It uses an expendable twostage liquid-fueled rocket air-launched from a WhiteKnightTwo aircraft, the carrier

aircraft for the suborbital reusable vehicle SpaceShipOne. Virgin Galactic projects 

to begin LauncherOne flights in 2016.

While microsats are widely used for various satellite applications, including 

commercial communications (e.g., ORBCOMM and AprizeStar) and remote 

sensing (e.g., RapidEye), nanosats are predominantly used for technology 

demonstration, both in spacecraft technology and satellite applications, such 

as communications and remote sensing. As the technology matures, more 

nanosatellites are built for scientific, communications, and remote sensing 

purposes. 

Appendix 4 presents a summary of secondary NGSO payloads to launch 

commercially during the forecast period. It includes publicly announced 

microsats and nanosats, along with a few larger satellites, that are manifested in 

the near term to launch commercially. 

Cubesats are a distinctive group of small satellites in the nanosat 

mass class. Cubesats are miniaturized satellites measuring 10x10x10 

centimeters and weighing 1 kilogram, also know as 1 unit (1U). Satellite 

units can be combined to create double- or triple-unit (2U or 3U) cubesats 

with measurements of 10x10x20 centimeters (2U) or 10x10x30 centimeters 

(3U), respectively. They can offer the standard functions of a normal 

satellite, including deployment of solar panels, antennas, and booms. Over 

75 cubesats have launched, and approximately, 100 and 150 cubesats are 

either ready to launch or in various phases of preparation. 

The original cubesat concept was introduced in 2003 as a low-cost 

university educational satellite platform and gradually became the 

standard for most university satellites. Universities are still the main 

organization building these spacecraft. As cubesats become more 

capable, government and private industry have become more interested 

in launching and operating them. For example, spacecraft manufacturers 

build these satellites to space-qualify equipment for future use on larger 

satellites. 

Because of their size, individual cubesats often perform just one function at 

a time. However, constellations of cubesats can potentially work together to 

provide greater functionality. A cubesat constellation would require enough 

cubesats that if one or two failed, it would not be mission critical. Beside 

universities, government agencies have become interested in developing 

cubesat constellations. 
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 70 •

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Satellites

Satellite and Launch Forecast Trend

On average, for the past five years, there have been 77 total launches and 21 

commercial launches per year. The demand for commercial GEO launches 

for the next 10 years is expected to stay relatively steady at 15 to 17 launches 

per year. The demand for commercial NGSO launches is expected to increase 

relatively significantly as major NGSO telecommunication constellations are 

replenished and NASA ISS commercial crew and cargo resupply missions 

become more regular.

From 2013 to 2022, 337 payloads are projected to launch commercially, driving 

130 launches with multi-manifesting. This projection is comparable to last year’s 

report, which projected 128 launches from the 2012 to 2021 timeframe. Figures 

24 and 25 show the payloads and launches projected from 2013 to 2022. Table 

22 provides the specific numbers of payloads and launches for each segment.

Figure 24. Payload Projections

Commercial Telecommunications

Commercial Remote Sensing

Commercial Cargo and Crew 

Transportation Services

Other Commercially Launched Satellites

Technology Test and Demonstration
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast

• 71 •

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Launches

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total Avg

Payloads

Commercial 

Telecommunications 25 15 28 32 20 0 0 0 0 0 120 12.

Commercial Remote 

Sensing 1 2 3 2 5 3 0 1 0 0 17 1.

Commercial 

Cargo and Crew 

Transportation 

Services

4 5 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 74 7.

Other Commercially 

Launched Satellites 42 9 2 3 11 12 11 11 11 11 123 12.

Technology Test and 

Demonstration 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0.

Total Satellites 74 32 41 45 44 23 20 20 19 19 337 33.

Launche

Medium-to-Heavy 

Vehicles 14 14 17 15 13 12 11 11 10 10 127 12.

Small Vehicles 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0.

Total Launches 16 14 17 16 13 12 11 11 10 10 130 13

Table 22. Payload and Launch Projections

Figure 25. Launch Projections

Commercial Telecommunications

Commercial Remote Sensing

Commercial Cargo and Crew 

Transportation Services

Other Commercially Launched Satellites

Technology Test and Demonstration
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 72 •

Fifty-seven percent of the predicted launches over the next 10 years are for 

commercial transportation services. As noted earlier, many of these launches 

take place on newly developed vehicles. These missions also partly rely on 

government funding subject to annual appropriations. 

Other Commercially Launched Satellites account for 22 percent of launches 

over the next 10 years. These include a steady stream of basic and applied 

research and non-commercial remote sensing payloads primarily from countries 

without indigenous launch capabilities.

Twelve percent of the launches are for commercial telecommunications. Four 

launches are planned in 2013 to replace ORBCOMM, Globalstar, and O3b 

satellites. There is another peak of telecommunications launches from 2015 

to 2017 as Iridium replaces its satellites. No telecommunications launches 

are forecasted from 2018 to 2022, after the replacement constellations are 

completed. 

The commercial remote sensing industry is characterized by relatively stable 

satellite replacement schedules, and it represents seven percent of the launch 

demand market. A peak in the number of launches is expected in 2015, 

reflecting projected deployment of satellites operated by DMCii.

The technology test and demonstration segment accounts for 2 percent of 

launches over the next 10 years, including 3 launches of new technology test 

and demonstration missions: Orbital’s Antares vehicle, SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy, 

and NASA’s uncrewed test of the Orion MPCV on a Delta IV Heavy.

Payload mass varies significantly in the commercial NGSO market. Increasing 

numbers of micro- and nanosatellites are launched as secondary or piggyback 

payloads, and many countries commercially launch mini, small, and mediumsized satellites to LEO for scientific research or remote sensing. NGSO 

commercial telecommunications satellites are large constellations of satellites 

with sizes ranging from nano (AprizeStar) to micro (ORBCOMM) to small 

(Globalstar, Iridium, O3b), none over 800 kilograms. In contrast, the average 

mass of a GSO telecommunications satellite is approximately 5,000 kilograms, 

with many GSO satellites significantly heavier than that. Crew and cargo 

spacecraft to the ISS and Bigelow space stations will likely include large, heavy, 

or extra heavy payloads. Table 23 shows the mass distributions of known 

manifested payloads over the next two years.
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast

• 73 •

There are 130 launches projected, comprising 3 small vehicles and 127 

medium-to-heavy vehicles. On average, 0.3 launches take place on small 

vehicles and 12.7 launches on medium-to-heavy vehicles every year. The 2012 

report included 128 total launches composed of 8 small and 120 medium-toheavy launches. 

Launch demand divided among launch vehicle mass classes is depicted 

in Figure 26. The number of medium-to-heavy launches increased slightly 

compared to last year’s forecast, due to the addition of commercial crew test 

flights in the mid-term. The relatively high cost of a dedicated launch on a 

small launch vehicle compared to a secondary or piggyback payload on a 

larger vehicle has kept the demand for small launch vehicles low. Other factors 

supporting this trend are more multiple-manifest launch services, carrying 

primary missions on both commercial and non-commercial basis, have become 

readily available in the recent years; many small payload operators are tied 

to government funding or national launch capabilities (e.g., small European 

missions launched by Vega or U.S. university missions getting free rides through 

programs like NASA’s ELaNa). Intermediary companies (such as SpaceFlight 

Services, Commercial Space Technologies Ltd., and some others) offering 

brokerage services and pooling together clusters of secondary payloads to 

be launched together on a single launch vehicle have made the business of 

booking flights for secondary payloads more organized and predictable.

Mass Class

Mass Class 

Weight 2013 2014 Total

Percent of 

Total

Femto, Pico, Nano, 

Micro

0.01-200 kg 

(0.02-441 lbs) 38 7 45 42%

Mini 200-600 kg

(441-1,323 lbs) 15 11 26 25%

Small 600-1,200 kg 

(1,323-2,646 lbs) 14 6 20 19%

Medium, 

Intermediate

1,200-4,200 kg

(2,646-9,259 lbs) 3 5 8 8%

Large 4,200-5,400 kg

(9,259-11,905 lbs) 0 0 0 0%

Heavy, Extra Heavy > 5,400 k

(> 11,905 lbs) 4 3 7 7%

Total 74 32 106 100%

Table 23. Distribution of Payload Masses in Near-Term Manifest
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 74 •

2

1

14

14

17 15

13

12

11 11

10 10

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Launches

Two of the three projected small launches are for Other Commercially Launched 

Satellites: a Rockot for the SWARM constellation and a Minotaur I for ORS-3. An 

additional small vehicle, yet to be announced, will launch the EROS-C remote 

sensing satellite. All other launches are expected to be on medium-to-heavy 

vehicles. 

One hundred-twenty telecommunications payloads will require 15 multiplemanifested launches in the next 10 years. The projected number of launches 

for the Commercial Transportation Services and Other Commercially Launched 

Satellites segments is 74 and 29, respectively. Commercial transportation 

spacecraft all require medium-to-heavy launch vehicles. Payloads in the Other 

Commercially Launched Satellites segment will use a mix of medium-to-heavy 

and small launch vehicles, and multiple payloads will frequently co-manifest on 

the same launch. Commercial remote sensing satellites are projected to launch 

on eight medium-to-heavy launch vehicles and one small launch vehicle.

Table 24 provides the distribution of launches among the market segments.

Market Segment Payloads

Launch Deman

Small

Medium-toHeavy Tota

Commercial Telecommunications 120 0 15 15

Commercial Remote Sensing 17 1 8 9

Commercial Cargo and Crew 

Transportation Services 74 0 74 74

Other Commercially Launched 

Satellites 123 2 27 29

Technology Test and 

Demonstration 3 0 3 3

Total 337 3 127 130

Table 24. Distribution of Launches among Market Segments

Figure 26. Launch Vehicle Projections

Small (<2,268 kg LEO)

Medium to Heavy (>2,268 kg LEO)
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast

• 75 •

Launch Vehicles Typically Used for NGSO Missi

During the forecast period, several changes will occur in the availability of 

launch vehicles for customers seeking to launch to NGSO on commercially 

procured vehicles. Some new vehicles will be introduced, while others will retire.

In the U.S., SpaceX began to launch revenue-generating flights of the Falcon 9 

in 2012, and Orbital’s new Antares vehicle may begin revenue-generating flights 

in 2014. In both cases, these flights launch under NASA’s CRS contracts. In 

addition, Lockheed Martin Commercial Launch Services will provide upgraded 

variants of the Athena launch vehicle, with launches expected during the 

forecast period. Virgin Galactic intends to begin commercial launches of its new 

LauncherOne vehicle in 2016.

In Europe, Arianespace’s small vehicle Vega is available to perform flights. 

China is working on a small vehicle called the Long March 6, which may be 

offered commercially. The first launch of this vehicle is expected early in the 

forecast period. Japan plans to inaugurate its Epsilon small launch vehicle in 

2013, while South Korea continues to develop its Korean Space Launch Vehicl

system, which includes the small Naro-1 vehicle. The Naro-1, previously known 

as the Korean Space Launch Vehicle (KSLV-1) had its first successful launch i

January 2013. In Russia, the Angara 1, a light version of the anticipated Angara 

series, will replace the Cosmos-3M, Tsyklon, and Rockot launch vehicles.

The new vehicles expected to become available within the next two to three 

years— Athena, Epsilon, and Long March 6—will launch one or more microand small-class payloads at a time. For NGSO, the per-kilogram cost to orbit 

for a small launch vehicle tends to be higher than the per-kilogram cost of a 

larger capacity vehicle, which may make these new small launch vehicles 

too expensive for many microsatellite customers. Because of cost, as well 

as reasons listed above, many small NGSO satellites may go as piggyback 

payloads on larger vehicles, leaving small launch vehicles with the smaller 

market of time-critical delivery of payloads on orbit.

Risk Factors That Affect Satellite and Launch Dema

The demand projection is the number of satellites that operators expect to 

launch in a given year. This demand is typically larger than the number of 

satellites actually launched. Factors that contribute to the difference between 

forecasted and realized launches include financial, political, and technical 

uncertainty.
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

• 76 •

Financial Uncertaint

• U.S. national and global economy: Strong overall economic conditio

historically foster growth and expansion in satellite markets. Similarly, 

relatively weak currency exchange rates in one nation generally create 

favorable circumstances for exporters and buyers in a given marketplace. 

Global satellite manufacturers and purchasers have shown strong interest in 

taking advantage of the highly attractive values offered by the historically low 

U.S. dollar exchange rates. However, as the dollar rises in value, this trend 

will reverse.

• Investor confidence: After investors suffered large losses from the 

bankruptcies of high-profile NGSO systems in the early 2000s, confidence in 

future and follow-on NGSO telecommunications systems have abated.

• Business case changes: The satellite owner or operator can experience

budget shortfalls, change strategies, or request technology upgrades late in 

the manufacturing stage, all of which can contribute to schedule delay. An 

infusion of cash from new investors can revive a stalled system or accelerate 

schedules.

• Corporate mergers: The merging of two or more companies may make it 

less likely for each to continue previous plans and can reduce the number 

of competing satellites that launch. Conversely, mergers can have a positive 

impact by pooling the resources of two weaker firms to enable launches that 

would not have occurred otherwise.

• Terrestrial competition: Satellite services can complement or compete with 

ground-based technology, such as cellular telephones or communications 

delivered through fiber optic or cable television lines. Aerial remote sensing 

also competes with satellite imagery. Developers of new space systems 

have to plan ahead extensively for design, construction, and testing of 

space technologies, while developers of terrestrial technologies can react 

and build to market trends more quickly and might convince investors of a 

faster return on investment.

Political Uncertaint

• Increase in government purchases of commercial services: For a variety 

of reasons, government entities have been purchasing more space-related 

services from commercial companies. For example, the DoD continues to 

purchase significant remote sensing data from commercial providers.

• Regulatory and political changes: Export compliance, FCC licensing,

NOAA licensing, or international licensing requirements can delay progress 

on a satellite program. U.S. Government policy regarding satellite and 

launch vehicle export control has hindered U.S. satellite manufacturers and 

launch vehicle operators working with international customers. This causes 

delays as well as cancellations of satellite programs. Changes in FCC or 

NOAA processes, export control issues associated with space technology, 

and political relations between countries can all affect demand.
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: FAA NGSO Forecast

• 77 •

• Increase in government missions open to launch services competition: 

Some governments keep launch services contracts within their borders to 

support domestic launch industries. However, ESA has held international 

launch competitions for some of its small science missions, and some 

remote sensing satellite launches have been competed. While established 

space-faring nations are reluctant to open up to international competition, 

the number of nations with new satellite programs but without space launch 

access slowly increases.

Technical Uncertaint

• Satellite lifespan: Many satellites outlast their planned design life. The 

designated launch years in this report for replacement satellites are often 

estimates for when a new satellite will be needed. Lifespan estimates are 

critical for timing the replacements of existing NGSO satellite systems given 

the high capital investment required to deploy a replacement system.

• Need for replacement satellites: Although a satellite might have a long 

lifespan, it can be replaced early if it is no longer cost-effective to maintain; 

or an opportunity might arise that allows a satellite owner or operator to 

exceed the competition with a technological advancement. Higher resolution 

commercial remote sensing satellites are an example of this factor.

• Launch vehicle technical issues: Launch vehicle manufacturers and

operators may have manufacturing, supplier, or component issues or 

experience launch anomalies or failures. Any of these issues can delay 

the availability of a launch vehicle or cause a delay at the launch pad. 

Launch delays can have a cascading effect on subsequent launches. Some 

missions have specific launch windows (for example, science windows), and 

missing that window may result in lengthy delays.

• Satellite technical issues: Satellite manufacturers may have factory, 

supplier, or component issues that delay the delivery of a satellite. The 

likelihood of delays due to technical issues rises as satellite systems become 

more complex. Anomalies, whether on the ground or on orbit, can affect the 

delivery of satellites until potential fleet issues (for example, commonality 

with parts on a satellite awaiting launch) are resolved. Delays in delivery of 

spacecraft to the launch site can impact the scheduling of launches.

• Multi-manifesting: Multi-manifesting, while limited to a few launch vehicles, 

is dependent on several satellites being delivered on time. Payload 

compatibility issues may also cause manifesting challenges.

• Weather: Inclement weather, including ground winds, flight winds, cloud 

cover, lightning, and ocean currents can cause launch delays, though these 

typically are short term (on the order of days).

• Failure of orbiting satellites: From the launch services perspective, failure 

of orbiting satellites can require launching ground spares or ordering new 

satellites. This only amounts to a small effect on the market, however. A total 

system failure has not happened to any NGSO constellation.

• Orbital debris and collision avoidance: Though relatively rare, launch 

delays can also occur when conjunction analysis determines that orbital 

debris has a high probability of introducing risk to the mission.
• 78 • 

Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

Appendix 1: Hist

lau

Historical data for addressable commercial satellites launched from 1993 

through 2012 is shown in Table 25. Historical data for unaddressable satellites 

launched from 1993 to 2012 is shown in Table 26.

1993 1994 1995

Total Launches 8 14 17

Total Satellites 10 18 18

Over 5,400 kg 

(>11,905 lbm) 0 0 0

4,200 - 5,400 kg 

(9,260 - 11,905 lbm) 0 0 0

2,500 - 4,200 kg 

(5,510 - 9,260 lbm)

6 9 14

Astra 1C Ariane 4 Astra 1D Ariane 4 Astra 1E Ariane 4

DM2 DBS 1 Ariane 4 Intelsat 702 Ariane 4 DBS 3 Ariane 4

Galaxy 4 Ariane 4 DM2 PAS 2 Ariane 4 Intelsat 706 Ariane 4

Intelsat 701 Ariane 4 PAS 3 Ariane 4 NSTAR a Ariane 4

DMU Solidaridad 1 Ariane 4 DM4 Solidaridad 2 Ariane 4 PAS 4 Ariane 4

Telstar 401 Atlas II Telstar 402 Ariane 4 Telstar 402R Ariane 4

DBS 2 Atlas II AMSC 1 Atlas II

Intelsat 703 Atlas II Galaxy 3R Atlas II

Optus B3 Long March 2E Intelsat 704 Atlas II

Intelsat 705 Atlas II

JCSat 3 Atlas II

APStar 2 Long March 2E

Asiasat 2 Long March 2E

EchoStar 1 Long March 2E

Below 2,500 kg 

(<5,510 lbm)

4 9 4

DM1 Insat 2B Ariane 4 DM3 Brazilsat B1 Ariane 4 DM1 Brazilsat B2 Ariane 44

DM1 Hispasat 1B Ariane 4 DM2 BS-3N Ariane 4 DM1 Hot Bird 1 Ariane 44

DM2 Thaicom 1 Ariane 4 DM1 Eutelsat II F5 Ariane 4 DMU Insat 2C Ariane 44

NATO 4B Delta II DM4 Thaicom 2 Ariane 4 Koreasat 1 Delta I

DM1 TurkSat 1A Ariane 4

DM3 TurkSat 1B Ariane 4

Orion 1 Atlas II

Galaxy 1R Delta II

APStar 1 Long March 3

Table 25. Historical Addressable Commercial GSO Satellites Launched (1993-2012)

= Launch Failure

DM# = Dual-manifested Launch with another Addressable Satellite. Example: DM1 was paired with DM1, DM2 with DM2, etc.

DMU = Dual-manfiested Launch with Non-Addressable Satellite. DMU missions are counted as a single launch in the launch 

count.
• 79 •

2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: Appendix

1996 1997 1998

Total Launches 21 24 19

Total Satellites 25 28 23

Over 5,400 kg 

(>11,905 lbm) 0 0 0

4,200 - 5,400 kg 

(9,260 - 11,905 lbm) 0 0 0

2,500 - 4,200 kg 

(5,510 - 9,260 lbm)

14 21 14

DM3 Arabsat 2A Ariane 4 DMU Hot Bird 3 Ariane 4 DM4 Afristar Ariane 4

DM4 Arabsat 2B Ariane 4 Intelsat 801 Ariane 4 DM3 Eutelsat W2 Ariane 4

EchoStar 2 Ariane 4 Intelsat 802 Ariane 4 Hot Bird 4 Ariane 4

Intelsat 707 Ariane 4 Intelsat 803 Ariane 4 PAS 6B Ariane 4

Intelsat 709 Ariane 4 Intelsat 804 Ariane 4 PAS 7 Ariane 4

MSAT 1 Ariane 4 JCSat 5 Ariane 4 Satmex 5 Ariane 4

NSTAR b Ariane 4 PAS 6 Ariane 4 ST 1 Ariane 4

DM2 Palapa C2 Ariane 4 DM4 Sirius 2 Ariane 4 Hot Bird 5 Atlas II

DM1 PAS 3R Ariane 4 DM2 Thaicom 3 Ariane 4 Intelsat 805 Atlas II

AMC 1 Atlas II AMC 3 Atlas II Intelsat 806 Atlas II

Hot Bird 2 Atlas II DirecTV 6 Atlas II Galaxy 10 Delta III

Palapa C1 Atlas II EchoStar 3 Atlas II Astra 2A Proton K/D

Intelsat 708 Long March 3B Galaxy 8i Atlas II EchoStar 4 Proton K/D

Astra 1F Proton K/DM JCSat 4 Atlas II PAS 8 Proton K/

Superbird C Atlas II

Agila II Long March 3B

APStar 2R Long March 3B

Aatra 1G Proton K/D

Asiasat 3 Proton K/D

PAS 5 Proton K/D

Telstar 5 Proton K/D

Below 2,500 kg 

(<5,510 lbm)

11 7 9

DM2 Amos 1 Ariane 4 DM1 AMC 2 Ariane 4 DM4 AMC 5 Ariane 4

DMU Italsat 2 Ariane 4 DM2 BSat 1A Ariane 4 DM1 Brazilsat B3 Ariane 4

DM1 Measat 1 Ariane 4 DM4 Cakrawarta 1 Ariane 4 DM2 BSat 1B Ariane 4

DM4 Measat 2 Ariane 4 DM3 Inmarsat 3F4 Ariane 4 DM1 Inmarsat 3F5 Ariane 4

DM3 TurkSat 1C Ariane 4 DM3 Insat 2D Ariane 4 DM2 NileSat 101 Ariane 4

Inmarsat 3F1 Atlas II DM1 Nahuel 1A Ariane 4 DM3 Sirius 3 Ariane 4

Inmarsat 3F3 Atlas II Thor II Delta II Bonum 1 Delta II

Galaxy 9 Delta II Skynet 4D Delta II

Koreasat 2 Delta II Thor III Delta I

APStar 1A Long March 3

Inmarsat 3F2 Proton K/D

Table 25. Historical Addressable Commercial GSO Satellites Launched (1993-2012) (Continued)

= Launch Failure

DM# = Dual-manifested Launch with another Addressable Satellite. Example: DM1 was paired with DM1, DM2 with DM2, etc.

DMU = Dual-manfiested Launch with Non-Addressable Satellite. DMU missions are counted as a single launch in the launch 

count.
• 80 • 

Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

1999 2000 2001

Total Launches 18 20 12

Total Satellites 19 24 14

Over 5,400 kg 

(>11,905 lbm) 0 0 0

4,200 - 5,400 kg 

(9,260 - 11,905 lbm)

2 4 5

Galaxy 11 Ariane 4 Anik F1 Ariane 4 DirecTV 4S Ariane 4

Orion 3 Delta III PAS 1R Ariane 5 Intelsat 901 Ariane 4

Garuda 1 Proton K/DM Intelsat 902 Ariane 

Thuraya 1 Sea Launch XM Rock Sea Launch

XM Roll Sea Launch

2,500 - 4,200 kg 

(5,510 - 9,260 lbm)

16 14 6

AMC 4 Ariane 4 DM1 Asiastar 1 Ariane 5 Atlantic Bird 2 Ariane 4

DM1 Arabsat 3A Ariane 4 DM3 Astra 2B Ariane 5 Turksat 2A Ariane 4

Insat 2E Ariane 4 Europe*Star 1 Ariane 4 DM2 Artemis Ariane 5

Koreasat 3 Ariane 4 Eutelsat W1R Ariane 4 DM1 Eurobird Ariane 

Orion 2 Ariane 4 Galaxy 10R Ariane 4 Astra 2C Proton K/D

Telkom Ariane 4 Galaxy IVR Ariane 4 PAS 10 Proton K/D

Telstar 7 Ariane 4 NSat 110 Ariane 4

Echostar 5 Atlas II Superbird 4 Ariane 4

Eutelsat W3 Atlas II Echostar 6 Atlas II

JCSat 6 Atlas II Hispasat 1C Atlas II

Asiasat 3S Proton K/DM Eutelsat W4 Atlas II

Astra 1H Proton K/DM AAP 1 Proton K/

LMI 1 Proton K/DM AMC 6 Proton K/

Nimiq Proton K/DM PAS 9 Sea Launc

Telstar 6 Proton K/D

DirecTV 1R Sea Launch

Below 2,500 kg 

(<5,510 lbm)

1 6 3

DM1 Skynet 4E Ariane 4 DM2 Brazilsat B4 Ariane 4 DMU Skynet 4F Ariane 4

DM2 Nilesat 102 Ariane 4 DM1 BSat 2A Ariane 5

DM3 AMC 7 Ariane 5 DM2 BSat 2B Ariane 5

DM4 AMC 8 Ariane 5

DM4 Astra 2D Ariane 5

DM1 Insat 3B Ariane 5

Table 25. Historical Addressable Commercial GSO Satellites Launched (1993-2012) (Continued)

= Launch Failure

DM# = Dual-manifested Launch with another Addressable Satellite. Example: DM1 was paired with DM1, DM2 with DM2, etc.

DMU = Dual-manfiested Launch with Non-Addressable Satellite. DMU missions are counted as a single launch in the launch 

count.
• 81 •

2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: Appendix

2002 200 3 20

Total Launches 20 12 13

Total Satellites 22 15 13

Over 5,400 kg 

(>11,905 lbm)

0 0 3

Anik F2 Ariane 5

Intelsat X Proton M

DirecTV 7S Sea Launch

4,200 - 5,400 kg 

(9,260 - 11,905 lbm)

9 5 4

Intelsat 904 Ariane 4 Intelsat 907 Ariane 4 Amazonas Proton M

Intelsat 905 Ariane 4 DM2 Optus C1 Ariane 5 Eutelsat W3A Proton M

Intelsat 906 Ariane 4 Rainbow 1 Atlas V APStar V Sea Launch

NSS 6 Ariane 4 EchoStar 9 Sea Launch Estrela do Sul Sea Launch

NSS 7 Ariane 4 Thuraya 2 Sea Launch

Astra 1K Proton K/

Echostar 8 Proton K/D

Intelsat 903 Proton K/D

Galaxy 3C Sea Launch

2,500 - 4,200 kg 

(5,510 - 9,260 lbm)

11 6 4

Insat 3C Ariane 4 DM1 Insat 3A Ariane 5 Superbird 6 Atlas II

DM1 JCSat 8 Ariane 4 DM3 Insat 3E Ariane 5 MBSat Atlas III

DMU Atlantic Bird 1 Ariane 5 Asiasat 4 Atlas III AMC 16 Atlas V

DMU Hotbird 7 Ariane 5 HellasSat Atlas V AMC 15 Proton M

DM2 Stellat 5 Ariane 5 AMC 9 Proton K/

Hispasat 1D Atlas II Galaxy 13 Sea Launch

Echostar 7 Atlas III

Hotbird 6 Atlas V

Eutelsat W5 Delta IV

DirecTV 5 Proton K/D

Nimiq 2 Proton M

Below 2,500 kg 

(<5,510 lbm)

2 4 2

DM1 Astra 3A Ariane 4 DM2 Bsat 2C Ariane 5 AMC 10 Atlas II

DM2 NSTAR c Ariane 5 DM3 e-Bird 1 Ariane 5 AMC 11 Atlas II

DM1 Galaxy 12 Ariane 5

Amos 2 Soyuz

Table 25. Historical Addressable Commercial GSO Satellites Launched (1993-2012) (Continued)

= Launch Failure

DM# = Dual-manifested Launch with another Addressable Satellite. Example: DM1 was paired with DM1, DM2 with DM2, etc.

DMU = Dual-manfiested Launch with Non-Addressable Satellite. DMU missions are counted as a single launch in the launch 

count.
• 82 • 

Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

2005 2006 2007

Total Launches 15 15 12

Total Satellites 16 19 18

Over 5,400 kg 

(>11,905 lbm)

6 2 3

DM1 Spaceway 2 Ariane 5 DM2 Satmex 6 Ariane 5 DM3 Spaceway 3 Ariane 5

Thaicom 4 Ariane 5 DM3 DirecTV 9S Ariane 5 DirecTV 10 Proton M

Inmarsat 4F1 Atlas V NSS 8 Sea Launch

IA 8 Sea Launch

Inmarsat 4F2 Sea Launch

Spaceway 1 Sea Launch

4,200 - 5,400 kg 

(9,260 - 11,905 lbm)

4 9 6

AMC 12 Proton M DM4 Wildblue 1 Ariane 5 DM2 Astra 1L Ariane 5

AMC 23 Proton M Astra 1KR Atlas V DM1 Skynet 5A Ariane 

Anik F1R Proton M Hotbird 8 Proton M DM5 Skynet 5B Ariane 5

XM 3 Sea Launch Measat 3 Proton M Nigcomsat Long March 3B

Echostar 10 Sea Launch Anik F3 Proton M

Galaxy 16 Sea Launch SES Sirius 4 Proton M

JCSat 9 Sea Launch

Koreasat 5 Sea Launc

XM 4 Sea Launch

2,500 - 4,200 kg 

(5,510 - 9,260 lbm)

3 6 5

Insat 4A Ariane 5 DM1 Hotbird 7A Ariane 5 DM2 Galaxy 17 Ariane 5

DMU XTAR-EUR Ariane 5 DMU JCSat 10 Ariane 5 DM1 Insat 4B Ariane 5

DirecTV 8 Proton M DM1 Spainsat Ariane 5 DM6 RASCOM 1 Ariane 5

DM2 Thaicom 5 Ariane 5 DM5 Star One C1 Ariane 5

Arabsat 4A Proton M JCSat 11 Proton M

Arabsat 4B Proton M

Below 2,500 kg 

(<5,510 lbm)

3 2 4

DM1 Telkom 2 Ariane 5 DM4 AMC 18 Ariane 5 DM3 Bsat 3A Ariane 5

DMU Galaxy 15 Ariane 5 DM3 Optus D1 Ariane 5 DM4 Intelsat 11 Ariane 5

Galaxy 14 Soyuz DM4 Optus D2 Ariane 5

DM6 Horizons Ariane 5

Table 25. Historical Addressable Commercial GSO Satellites Launched (1993-2012) (Continued)

= Launch Failure

DM# = Dual-manifested Launch with another Addressable Satellite. Example: DM1 was paired with DM1, DM2 with DM2, etc.

DMU = Dual-manfiested Launch with Non-Addressable Satellite. DMU missions are counted as a single launch in the launch 

count.
• 83 •

2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: Appendix

2008 2009 2010

Total Launches 18 18 14

Total Satellites 23 22 20

Over 5,400 kg 

(>11,905 lbm)

5 8 7

ICO G-1 Atlas V DM1 Amazonas 2 Ariane 5 DM4 Eutelsat W3B Ariane 5

Ciel 2 Proton M DM2 NSS 12 Ariane 5 Arabsat 5B Proton M

Inmarsat 4F3 Proton M Terrestar 1 Ariane 5 Echostar 14 Proton M

DirecTV 11 Sea Launch Intelsat 14 Atlas V Echostar 15 Proton M

Echostar 11 Sea Launch DirecTV 12 Proton M KA-Sat Proton 

Eutelsat W2A Proton M SkyTerra 1 Proton M

Eutelsat W7 Proton M XM 5 Proton M

Sirius FM5 Proton M

4,200 - 5,400 kg 

(9,260 - 11,905 lbm)

8 2 4

DM3 HotBird 9 Ariane 5 DM3 Hotbird 10 Ariane 5 DM1 Astra 3B Ariane 5

DM1 Skynet 5C Ariane 5 Nimiq 5 Proton M DM2 Arabsat 5A Ariane 5

DM5 Superbird 7 Ariane 5 DM6 Hispasat 1E Ariane 5

Astra 1M Proton M DM5 Intelsat 17 Ariane 5

Nimiq 4 Proton M

Galaxy 18 Sea Launch

Galaxy 19 Sea Launch

Thuraya 3 Sea Launch

2,500 - 4,200 kg 

(5,510 - 9,260 lbm)

8 9 6

DM1 Turksat 3A Ariane 5 DM4 JCSat 12 Ariane 5 DM5 Hylas Ariane 5

DM2 Badr 6 Ariane 5 DM1 Satcom BW1 Ariane 5 DM6 Koreasat 6 Ariane 

DM2 Protostar 1 Ariane 5 DM2 Thor 6 Ariane 5 DM3 Nilesat 201 Ariane 5

DM3 Eutelsat W2M Ariane 5 Telstar 1N Land Launch DM3 RASCOM 1R Ariane 5

DM4 Vinasat Ariane 5 Intelsat 15 Long March DM1 Satcom BW2 Ariane 5

DM4 StarOne C2 Ariane 5 Palapa D Long March SES 1 Proton M

DM5 AMC 21 Ariane 5 Asiasat 5 Proton M

AMC 14 Proton M Protostar II Proton M

Sicral 1B Sea Launch

Below 2,500 kg 

(<5,510 lbm)

2 3 3

AMOS 3 Land Launch DM3 NSS 9 Ariane 5 DM2 COMS 1 Ariane 5

Thor 5 Proton M DM4 Optus D3 Ariane 5 DM4 BSAT 3B Ariane 5

Measat 3A Land Launch Intelsat 16 Proton M

Table 25. Historical Addressable Commercial GSO Satellites Launched (1993-2012) (Continued)

= Launch Failure

DM# = Dual-manifested Launch with another Addressable Satellite. Example: DM1 was paired with DM1, DM2 with DM2, etc.

DMU = Dual-manfiested Launch with Non-Addressable Satellite. DMU missions are counted as a single launch in the launch 

count.
• 84 • 

Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

2011 2012

Total Launches 12 12

Total Satellites 15 21

Over 5,400 kg 

(>11,905 lbm)

3 10

DM1 Yahsat 1A Ariane 5 DM3 Astra 2F Ariane 5

Quetzsat Proton M DMU Echostar 17 Ariane 5

Viasat 1 Proton M DM2 Intelsat 20 Ariane 5

Echostar 16 Proton M

Intelsat 22 Proton M

SES 4 Proton M

SES 5 Proton M

Yahsat 1B Proton M

Intelsat 19 Sea Launch

Intelsat 21 Sea Launch

4,200 - 5,400 kg 

(9,260 - 11,905 lbm)

6 5

DM3 Arabsat 5C Ariane 5 DM4 Eutelsat 21B Ariane 5

DM2 Astra 1N Ariane 5 DM1 JCSAT 13 Ariane 5

DMU ST 2 Ariane 5 DM5 Skynet 5D Ariane 5

Eutelsat W3C Long March Nimiq 6 Proton M

Telstar 14R Proton M Eutelsat 70B Sea Launch

Atlantic Bird 7 Sea Launch

2,500 - 4,200 kg 

(5,510 - 9,260 lbm)

6 6

DM2 BSAT 3C Ariane 5 DM3 GSAT 10 Ariane 5

DM1 New Dawn Ariane 5 DM2 Hylas 2 Ariane 5

DM3 SES 2 Ariane 5 DM5 Mexsat 3 Ariane 5

Intelsat 18 Land Launch DM4 Star One C3 Ariane 5

Asiasat 7 Proton M DM1 Vinasat 2 Ariane 5

DMU SES 3 Proton M/DM Intelsat 23 Proton M

Below 2,500 kg 

(<5,510 lbm) 0 0

Table 25. Historical Addressable Commercial GSO Satellites Launched (1993-2012) (Continued)

= Launch Failure

DM# = Dual-manifested Launch with another Addressable Satellite. Example: DM1 was paired with DM1, DM2 with DM2, etc.

DMU = Dual-manfiested Launch with Non-Addressable Satellite. DMU missions are counted as a single launch in the launch 

count.
• 85 •

2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: Appendix

1993 1994 1995 1996

Launches 3 4 1 4

Spacecraft 3 4 2 5

Gorizont Proton K/DM DFH 3-1 Long March 3A DMC Telecom 2C Ariane 4 DMC Telecom 2D Ariane 4

Gorizont 40 Proton K/DM Express Proton K/DM Gals 2 Proton K/DM Chinasat 7 Long March 3A

Gorizont 41 Proton K/DM Gals-1 Proton K/DM Express 2 Proton K/DM

Gorizont 42 Proton K/DM Gorizont 43 Proton K/DM

Gorizont 44 Proton K/DM

1997 1998 1999 2000

Launches 1 2 2 5

Spacecraft 1 2 3 5

Chinasat 6 Long March 3A ChinaStar 1 Long March 3B Express A1 Proton K/DM Express A2 Proton K/DM

Sinosat 1 Long March 3C DM1 Yamal 101 Proton K/DM Express A3 Proton K/DM

DM1 Yamal 102 Proton K/DM Gorizont 45 Proton K/M

SESAT 1 Proton K/DM

Chinasat 22 Long March 3A

2001 2002 2003 2004

Launches 1 1 3 2

Spacecraft 1 1 4 2

Ekran M Proton M Express A4 Proton K/DM Express AM22 Proton K/DM Express AM11 Proton K/DM

DM1 Yamal 201 Proton K/DM Express AM1 Proton K/DM

DM1 Yamal 202 Proton K/DM

Chinasat 20 Long March 3A

2005 2006 2007 2008

Launches 3 4 4 3

Spacecraft 3 4 4 3

Express AM 2 Proton K/DM Kazsat Proton K/DM Sinosat 3 Long March 3B Venesat 1 Long March 3B

Express AM 3 Proton K/DM Sinosat 2 Long March 4B Chinasat 6B Long March 3B Chinasat 9 Long March 3B

Apstar 6 Long March 3B Chinasat 22A Long March 3A Nigcomsat 1 Long March 3B Express AM33 Proton

Insat 4C GSLV Insat 4CR GSLV

2009 2010 2011 2012

Launches 1 3 8 6

Spacecraft 2 3 10 8

DM1 Express MD1 Proton M ChinaSat 6A Long March 3B GSAT 8 Ariane 5 Apstar 7 Long March 3B

DM1 Express AM44 Proton M ChinaSat 20A Long March 3A Chinasat 10 Long March 3B Chinasat 2A Long March 3B

Insat 4D GSLV Chinasat 1A Long March 3B Chinasat 12 Long March 3B

Nigcomsat 1R Long March 3B DM1 Express MD2 Proton M

Paksat 1R Long March 3B DM2 Luch 5B Proton M

DM1 Amos 5 Proton M DM1 Telkom 3 Proton M

DM1 Luch 5A Proton M DM2 Yamal 300K Proton M

Express AM4 Proton M Yamal 402 Proton M

DMA Kazsat 2 Proton M

GSAT 12 PSLV

= Launch Failure

DM# = Dual-manifested Launch with another Unaddressable Satellite. Example: DM1 was paired with DM1, DM2 with DM2, etc.

DMA = Dual-manfiested Launch with Addressable Satellite. DMA missions are not counted as a launch in the launch count.

Table 26. Historical Unaddressable Commercial GSO Satellites Launched (1993-2012) 
• 86 • 

Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

Appendix 2: Hist

A

In the last decade of launch activity, there have been significant changes in 

the amount of payloads and launches forecasted each year, with payloads and 

launches remaining steady from 2003 to 2006, then beginning to increase in 2007. 

Overall, the 2013 NGSO report projects demand consistently higher than the 

average of 5.5 launches per year over the last 10 years.

In the last two decades of commercial NGSO satellite launch activity, the 

telecommunications market put large constellations of satellites into orbit within 

a few years, creating a short spurt of intense launch activity. This was the case in 

1997 to 1999, when the three major systems, Globalstar, Iridium, and ORBCOMM, 

launched. The 2013 NGSO report shows the launches scheduled to deploy the 

replacement satellites for each of the systems. Globalstar plans to complete their 

constellation in 2015, and a new O3b constellation will launch at the same time 

as ORBCOMM plans its major launch campaign. The Iridium NEXT deployment 

schedule does not fully overlap with the other constellations as it did in the late 

1990s.

The Other Commercially Launched Satellites and Commercial Remote Sensing 

Satellite markets create consistent launch demand according to historical figures. 

Since 1996, there had always been at least one launch of a government satellite 

launched commercially. The Commercial Remote Sensing Market has low launch 

demand and it is more sporadic than Other Commercially Launched Satellites.

The number of payloads launched by market sector and the total commercial 

launches that were internationally competed or commercially sponsored from 2003 

through 2012 are provided in Table 27. Small vehicles performed 22 launches 

during this period, while medium-to-heavy vehicles conducted 33 launches. 

From 1994 to the end of 2006, the historical number of launches between vehicle 

classes was roughly equal. This roughly even split is not expected to continue, 

with a trend emerging since 2007 of payloads increasingly launching on mediumto-heavy vehicles. The 2013 NGSO report estimates the larger vehicle class will 

continue to conduct the most launches.

Historical satellite and launch data from 2003 through 2012 are shown in Table 28.
• 87 •

2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: Appendix

6

 Includes payloads open to international launch services procurement and other commercially sponsored payloads. Does 

not include dummy payloads, piggyback payloads, or satellites that are captive to national flag launch service providers 

(i.e., U.S. Air Force or NASA satellites, or similar European, Russian, Japanese, or Chinese government satellites that 

are captive to their own launch providers). Only primary payloads that generate a launch are included, unless combined 

secondary payloads generate the demand.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total

Payloads

Commercial Telecommunication 0 2 0 0 8 6 2 6 14 1 39

Commercial Remote Sensing 1 0 1 1 3 6 3 1 2 0 18

Commercial Cargo and Crew 

Transportation Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 3

Other Commercially Launched 

Satellites 8 7 7 3 13 6 7 6 4 1 62

Technology Test and 

Demonstration 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 4

Total Satellites 9 9 8 5 25 19 12 15 20 4 126

Launche

Medium-to-Heavy Vehicles 1 1 0 2 10 4 2 7 3 3 33

Small Vehicles 3 1 3 3 2 6 3 1 0 0 22

Total Launches 4 2 3 5 12 10 5 8 3 3 5

Table 27. Historical Payloads and Launches6

Table 28. Historical NGSO Payload and Launch Activities (2003-2012)

1 ORCBCOMM OG2-01 deployed on launch with Dragon CRS 1D 

2 AprizeStar 5 & 6 deployed on launch with Sich 2 et al.

3 Nigeriasat-2 and NX deployed on launch with Sich 2 et al. 

4 Picard deployed on launch with Prisma Main & Target

Summary Market Segment Date Satellite Launch Vehic

2012

4 Satellites

1 Telecommunication

2 Transportation

1 Other

3 Launche

3 Medium-to-Heavy

Telecommunication ORBCOMM OG2-011

Transportation 5/22/12

10/7/12

Dragon COTS Demo 2/3

Dragon CRS D1

Falcon 9

Falcon 9

Medium-to-Heavy

Medium-to-Heavy

Other 12/19/12 Gökturk 2 LM 2D Medium-to-Heavy

2011

20 Satellites

14 Telecommunication

2 Remote Sensing

4 Other

3 Launche

3 Medium-to-Heavy

Telecommunication 7/13/11

12/28/11

Globalstar 2nd Gen. 7-12 

AprizeStar 5-62

Globalstar 2nd Gen.13-18

Soyuz 2

Soyuz 2

Medium-to-Heavy

Medium-to-Heavy

Remote Sensing Nigeriasat-23A

NX3B

Other 8/17/11 Sich 2

RASAT

Edusat

BPA-2

Dnepr Medium-to-Heavy

2010

15 Satellites

6 Telecommunication

1 Remote Sensing

6 Other

1 Test and Demo

1 Transportation

8 Launche

7 Medium-to-Heavy

1 Small

Telecommunication 10/19/10 Globalstar 2nd Gen. 1-6 Soyuz 2 Medium-to-Heavy

Remote Sensing 6/20/10 TanDEM X Dnepr M Medium-to-Heavy

Other 4/7/10

6/1/10

6/14/10

11/5/10

Cryosat 2

SERVIS 2

Prisma (2 sats)

Picard4

Cosmos-SkyMed 4

Dnepr M

Rockot

Dnepr M

Delta II

Medium-to-Heavy

Small

Medium-to-Heavy

Medium-to-Heavy

Test and Demo 6/9/10 Falcon 9 Demo Flight Falcon 9 Medium-to-Heavy

Transportation 12/8/10 Dragon COTS Demo 1 Falcon 9 Medium-to-Heavy
• 88 • 

Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

Table 28. Historical NGSO Satellite and Payload Activities (2003-2012) (Continued)

Summary Market Segment Date Satellite Launch Vehic

2009

12 Satellites

2 Telecommunication

3 Remote Sensing

7 Other

5 Launche

2 Medium-to-Heavy

3 Small

Telecommunication AprizeStar 3-45

Remote Sensing 10/8/09 Worldview 2

DEIMOS6A

UK DMC 26

Delta II Medium-to-Heavy

Other 7/13/09

7/29/09

3/17/09

11/2/09

RazakSat

DubaiSat 1

Nanosat 1B

GOCE

SMOS

Proba 2

UGATUSAT7

Falcon I

Dnepr

Rockot

Rockot

Small

Medium-to-Heavy

Small

Small

2008

19 Satellites

6 Telecommunication

6 Remote Sensing

6 Other

1 Test and Demo

10 Launche

4 Medium-to-Heavy

6 Small

Telecommunication 6/19/08 Orbcomm Replacement 1-5

Orbcomm CDS-3

Cosmos 3M Small

Remote Sensing 8/29/08

9/6/08

RapidEye 1-5

GeoEye-1

Dnepr 1

Delta II

Medium-to-Heavy

Medium-to-Heavy

Other 3/27/08

4/16/08

7/22/08

8/3/08

10/1/08

10/24/08

SAR Lupe 4

C/NOFS

SAR Lupe 5

TrailblazerF

THEOS

Cosmo-SkyMed 3

Cosmos 3M

Pegasus XL

Cosmos 3M

Falcon 1

Dnepr 1

Delta II

Small

Small

Small

Small

Medium-to-Heavy

Medium-to-Heavy

Test and Demo 9/28/08 Falcon 1 Mass Simulator Falcon 1 Small

2007

25 Satellites

8 Telecommunication

3 Remote Sensing

13 Other

1 Test and Demo

12 Launche

10 Medium-to-Heavy

2 Small

Telecommunication 5/30/07

10/21/0

Globalstar Replacement 1-4

Globalstar Replacement 5-8

Soyuz

Soyuz

Medium-to Heavy

Medium-to-Heavy

Remote Sensing 6/15/07

9/18/07

12/14/07

TerraSAR-X

WorldView 1

RADARSAT 2

Dnepr

Delta II

SoyuzD

Medium-to-Heavy

Medium-to-Heavy

Medium-to-Heavy

Other 4/17/07

4/23/07

6/7/07

7/2/07

11/1/07

12/8/07

Egyptsat

SaudiComsat 3-7

Saudisat 3

AGILE

AAM

Cosmos-SkyMed 1

SAR Lupe 2

SAR Lupe 3

Cosmo-SkyMed 2

Dnepr

PSLV

Delta II

Cosmos 3M

Cosmos 3M

Delta II

Medium-to-Heavy

Medium-to-Heavy

Medium-to-Heavy

Small

Small

Medium-to-Heavy

Test and Demo 6/28/07 Genesis II Dneor Medium-to-Heavy

2006

5 Satellites

1 Remote Sensing

3 Other

1 Test and Demo

5 Launche

2 Medium-to-Heavy

3 Small

Remote Sensing 4/25/06 EROS B START 1 Small

Other 7/28/06

12/27/06

12/19/06

Kompsat 

Corot

SAR Lupe 1

Rockot

Soyuz 2 1B

Cosmos

Small

Medium-to-Heavy

Small

Test and Demo 7/12/06 Genesis 1 Soyuz 2 1B Medium-to-Heavy

5 AprizeStar 3 & 4 deployed on launch with DubaiSat 1

6 DEIMOS and UK DMC 2 deployed on launch with DubaiSat 

7 UGATUSAT deployed on launch with Meteor 3M-N3

F Launch Failure
• 89 •

2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: Appendix

Table 28. Historical NGSO Satellite and Payload Activities (2003-2012) (Continued)

Summary Market Segment Date Satellite Launch Vehic

2005

8 Satellites

1 Remote Sensing

7 Other

3 Launche

3 Small

Remote Sensing 10/27/05 Beijing 1 Cosmos Small

Other 10/8/08

6/21/05

Cryosat

Cosmos 1

Rubin 58A

Sinah 18B

SSETI Express8C

Mozhayets 59D

Topsat9E

RockotF

VolnaF

Small

Small

2004

9 Satellites

2 Telecommunication

7 Other

2 Launche

1 Medium-to-Heavy

1 Small

Telecommunication LatinSat (2 sats)9

Other 5/20/04

6/29/04

Rocsat 2

Demeter

AMSat-Echo10A

SaudiComSat 1-210B

SaudiSat 210C

Unisat 310D

Taurus

Dnepr

Small

Medium-to-Heavy

2003

9 Satellites

1 Remote Sensing

8 Other

4 Launche

1 Medium-to-Heavy

3 Small

Remote Sensing 6/26/03 OrbView 3 Pegasus XL Small

Other 6/2/03

9/27/03

10/30/03

Mars Express

Beagle 2

BilSat 1

BNSCSat

KaistSat 

NigeriaSat 1

SERVIS 1

Rubin 4-DSI11

Soyuz

Cosmos

Rockot

Medium-to-Heavy

Small

Small

8 Rubin 5, Sinah 1, SSETI Express, Mozhayets 5, and Topsat deployed on launch with Beijing 1

9 LatinSat deployed on launch with Demeter

10 AMSat-Echo, SaudiComSAT 1-2, SaudiSat 2, and Unisat 3 deployed on launch with Demeter

11 Rubin 4-DSI deployed on launch with BilSat 1

F Launch Failure
• 90 • 

Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

Appendix 3:Veh

Small launch vehicles are defined as those with a payload capacity of less than 

2,268 kilograms (5,000 pounds) at 185 kilometers (100 nautical miles) altitude 

and a 28.5-degree inclination. Medium-to-heavy launch vehicles are capable of 

carrying more than 2,269 kilograms at 185 kilometers altitude and a 28.5-degree 

inclination. 

Commercial NGSO systems use a variety of orbits:

• Low Earth orbits (LEO) range from 160-2,400 kilometers (100-1,500 miles) in 

altitude, varying between a 0 degree inclination for equatorial coverage and 

a 101 degree inclination for global coverage.

• Medium Earth orbits (MEO) begin at 2,400 kilometers (1,500 miles) in 

altitude and are typically at a 45-degree inclination to allow global coverage 

with fewer high-powered satellites. However, MEO is often a term applied to 

any orbit between LEO and GSO.

• Elliptical orbits (ELI, also known as highly elliptical orbits, or HEO) have 

apogees ranging from 7,600 kilometers (4,725 miles) to 35,497 kilometers 

(22,000 miles) in altitude and up to a 116.5-degree inclination, allowing 

satellites to “hang” over certain regions on Earth, such as North America.

• External or non-geocentric orbits (EXT) are centered on a celestial body 

other than Earth. They differ from ELI orbits in that they are not closed 

loops around Earth, and a spacecraft in EXT will not return to an Earth orbit. 

In some cases, this term is used for payloads intended to reach another 

celestial body, such as the Moon.

Appendix 4: 

ngs

Class Name Kilograms (kg) Pounds (lb)

Femto 0.01 - 0.1 0.02 - 0.2

Pico 0.1 - 1 0.2 - 2

Nano 1 - 10 2 - 22

Micro 10 - 200 22 - 441

Mini 200 - 600 441 - 1,323

Small 600 - 1,200 1,323 - 2,646

Medium 1,200 - 2,500 2,646 - 5,512

Intermediate 2,500 - 4,200 5,512 - 9,259

Large 4,200 - 5,400 9,259 - 11,905

Heavy 5,400 - 7,000 11,905 - 15,432

Extra Heavy > 7,000 > 15,432

Table 29. Mass Classes for GSO and NGSO Payloads
• 91 •

2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: Appendix

Appendix 5 summary

payloads la

Table 30 provides details on launched and forecasted secondary payloads 

listed in this report. Payloads are listed in alphabetical order.

Satellite Launc

Yea

Launc

Vehicl

Mass 

kg (lb) Description of Capability

Black Night I 2013 Minotaur I 1 (2) Black Night 1 is an experimental nanosatellite designed by West 

Point cadets. The satellite will be launched as part of NASA’s 

ELaNa initiative. 

BPA-3 2013 Dnepr 1,910 (4,211) The Ukrainian BPA-3 is designed to remain attached to a 

Dnepr’s third stage to test navigation equipment for launch 

vehicles, spacecraft, and civilian aircraft. It is an experiment 

for technology development related to aircraft and spacecraft 

navigation developed by Kharton-Arkos, the manufacturers of

the Dnepr control system.

CANX 3-C 2013 Dnepr 7 (15) CANX 3-C is a Polish satellite mission to make photometric 

observations of stars to examine their variability. The satellite 

was built in conjunction with the University of Vienna, Vienna 

University of Technology, and the University of Toronto.

CINEMA-1 2014 Atlas V 3 (7) Cinema-1 was developed by the University of California Berkeley 

to conduct research and space weather measurements.

CINEMA-2, -3 2013 Dnepr 3 (7) CINEMA-2 and -3 were developed by the University of California 

Berkeley, Kyung Hee University of South Korea, Imperial Colleg

London (ICL), and NASA Ames Research Center. The satellites 

will conduct research and space weather measurements.

Copper Cube 2013 Minotaur I 1 (2) Copper Cube is a 1U cubesat developed by St. Louis University. 

Its mission is to perform a first flight of a commercially available, 

compact microbolometer array to evaluate its use for Earth 

observation and space situational awareness.

CP-5 2014 Atlas V 1 (2) CP-5 is a 1U cubesat developed by Cal Poly’s PolySat Program. 

The payload is designed to test a deployable spacecraft deorbiting film mechanism consisting of a miniature solar sail.

CSSWE 2014 Atlas V 4 (9) CSSWE was built by the University of Colorado as a space 

weather experiment to monitor solar particles reaching Earth.

CUSat 1, 2 2013 Falcon 9 45 (99) CUSat 1 and 2 will demonstrate a process through which one 

satellite can diagnose the structural health and configuration of 

another. The satellites are part of Cornell University’s Nanosat-4 

Program.

CXBN 2014 Atlas V 3 (7) CXBN, built by Morehead State University, is a nanosatellite 

designed to make observations of the cosmic X-ray background.

Delfi-n3Xt 2013 Dnepr 5 (11) The Delfi University of Technology, the University of Twente, and 

TNO (a Dutch partner) are working together to build Delfi-n3Xt. 

The satellite is to provide systems engineering experience, 

scientific writing experience, and various other skills to 

the students participating in the design and development. 

The satellite will test various micro-technologies for space 

applications, which were developed by sources in the Dutch 

space sector.

Table 30. Secondary NGSO Payloads Launched Commercially
• 92 • 

Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

Satellite Launc

Yea

Launc

Vehicl

Mass 

kg (lb) Description of Capability

Dove-1 2013 Antares 6 (13) Earth Observing start-up Cosmogia launched the triple-unit (3U) 

cubesat built with non-space components and housing a small 

camera. The satellite launched on Antares inaugural flight in 

April 2013.

DragonSat 1 2013 Minotaur I 1 (2) DragonSat 1 is an experimental nanosatellite developed 

by Drexel University and Drexel Space Systems Lab. The 

nanosatellite will be launched as part of NASA’s ELaNa initiative.

FUNcube-1 2013 Dnepr 1 (2) A UK amateur education satellite built by AMSAT-UK. Th

friendly user interface allows students to access and monitor 

information on the satellite such as battery voltages and 

temperatures, spin rate, and attitude.

Genesat 2 2013 Minotaur I 4 (9) Genesat 2 is a technology demonstration nanosatellite mission 

between NASA and various universities to study the effects of 

microgravity on biological cultures.

GOMX-1 2013 Dnepr 2 (4) Students from Aalborg University in Denmark developed an 

amateur radio payload to send into SSO. The satellite will 

include a camera designed to take color images of Earth. 

Additionally, it will include a receiver that will be tested and have 

its performance characterized.

IPEX 2013 Minotaur I 1 (2) IPEX is a cubesat mission for NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. 

Its mission is to demonstrate operation of autonomous 

instrument processing, downlink operations, and ground station 

operations.

Phonesat 1.0 

(3)

2013 Antares 1 (2) Phonesat 1.0 is a technology demonstration mission by NASA 

Ames Research Center to prove that commercial smartphones 

can operate as avionics systems on a cubesat.

POPACS (3) 2013 Falcon 9 2 (4) POPACS was developed by Morehead State University, 

Gil Moore, the University of Arkansas, Planetary Systems 

Corporation, and Montana State University to assess changes in 

the density of the upper atmosphere in response to heightened 

solar activity. 

SPA-1 

Trailblazer

2013 Minotaur I 1 (2) SPA-1 Trailblazer is an experimental nanosatellite that will 

provide a proof of concept to SPA, provide flight heritage and 

receive radiation exposure measurements, and provide a space 

qualification platform for additive manufacturing technology.

STPSat-3 2013 Minotaur I 180 (397) STPSAT-3, developed by the USAF Space Test Program, 

will carry five experiments designed to host various space 

situational awareness sensors and a pair of space environment 

sensors.

STSat-3 2013 Dnepr 150 (330) The South Korean-designed STSat-3 is designed to test

technologies related to bus structure, battery performance, and 

onboard computer performance. It will test these components 

by providing infrared images of the galaxy and aiding in land 

classification research and monitoring of water quality.

SwampSat 2013 Minotaur I 1 (2) SwampSat is a nanosatellite developed by the University of 

Florida to test a new system for attitude control.

Tethersat 2013 Minotaur I 3 (7) Tethersat is a 3U cubesat developed the Naval Postgraduate 

School to test electrodynamic tether propulsion. The satellite is 

launched by the USAF Space Test Program and NASA’s ELaNa 

initiative.

TJSat 2013 Minotaur I 1 (2) Thomas Jefferson Sat, (TJSat) is an experimental education 

cubesat built by Fairfax, Virginia high school.

Table 30. Secondary NGSO Payloads Launched Commercially (Continued)
• 93 •

2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: Appendix

Satellite Launc

Yea

Launc

Vehicl

Mass 

kg (lb) Description of Capability

Triton 1, 2 2013 Dnepr 3 (7) Triton 1 and 2 are 3U nanosatellites developed by Innovative 

Solutions in Space BV to test an experimental advanced 

Automatic Identification System receiver.

UniSat-5 2013 Dnepr 12 (26) This is the sixth satellite designed and manufactured by 

students and professors from the School of Aerospace 

Engineering at the University of Rome. Students from 

Morehead State University also contributed to the design and 

manufacturing of the satellite. UniSat-5 will test equipment in 

space conditions and allow for microgravity experimentation of 

various projects.

UWE-3 2013 Dnepr 1 (2) The third satellite out of the University of Würzburg will test 

adaptations of Internet protocols to the space environment 

while maintaining the ability to control its attitude, a new feature 

among the UWE satellites.

Vermont 

Lunar 

Cubesat

2013 Minotaur I 1 (2) The Vermont Lunar Cubesat was developed by the Vermont 

Technical College and is a test for circum-lunar flight using a 

triple cubesat.

WNISat-1 2013 Dnepr 10 (22) WNISat-1 is set to monitor the atmosphere and ice conditions 

in the routes of the Arctic Sea. The satellite will also monitor 

carbon dioxide in the atmosphere using visible and nearinfrared cameras to capture details.

Table 30. Secondary NGSO Payloads Launched Commercially (Continued)
• 94 • 

Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

Appendx 6

21AT Twenty First Century Aerospace Technology Company Ltd.

ABS Asia Broadcast Satellite

AIS Automatic Identification System

ADF Australian Defense Force

ATK  Alliant Technolog

ATV Automated Transfer Vehicle

BEAM Bigelow Expandable Activity Module

BMBF Federal Ministry of Education and Research

BPA Blok Perspektivnoy Avioniki

CASSIOPE Cascade, Smallsat, and Ionospheric Polar Explorer

CAST Chinese Academy of Space Technology

CCAFS Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

CCDev Commercial Crew Development

CCiCAP Commercial Crew Integrated Capacity

CEO Chief Executive Officer

CHIRP Commercially Hosted Infrared Payload Flight Demonstration Program

COMSTAC Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee

COTS Commercial Orbital Transportation Services

CPC Certification Product Contract

CRS Commercial Resupply Services

CSA Canadian Space Agency

CSSWE Colorado Student Space Weather Experiment

CST-100 Crew Space Transportation-100

CXBN Cosmic X-Ray Background

DARS Digital Audio Radio Service

DBS Direct Broadcasting Services

DEM Digital Elevation Model

DLR Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (German space agency)

DMC Disaster Monitoring Constellation

DMCii DMC International Imaging, Ltd.

DTH Direct-to-Home

EADS European Aeronautic Defence and Space Company

EAL Excalibur Almaz, Ltd.

ECA Export Credit Agency

EDRS European Data Relay System

EGNOS European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service

ELaNa Educational Launch of Nanosatellites
• 95 •

2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts: Appendix

ELI Highly Elliptical Orbit

EROS Earth Remote Observation Satellite

ESA European Space Agency

EXIM Export-Import Band

EXT External or Non-Geocentric Orbit

FAA AST Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Commercial Space Transportation

FCC Federal Communications Commission

FY Fiscal Year

FSS Fixed Satellite Services

GIS Geographic Information Systems

GMW GeoMetWatch

GPS Global Positioning System

GSLV Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle

GSO Geosynchronous Orbit

GTO Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit

HDTV High Definition Television Services

HEO Highly Elliptical Orbit

HPA Hosted Payload Alliance

ICL Imperial College London

ILS International Launch Services

IPO Initial Public Offering

ISRO Indian Space Research Organization

ISS International Space Station

ITAR International Traffic in Arms Regulations

ITT International Telephone & Telegraph

ITU International Telecommunications Union

KARI  Korea Aerospace Research Insti

KSLV  Korean Space Launch Veh

LEO Low Earth Orbit

LCRD Laser Communications Relay Demonstration

LLC Limited Liability Company

MEO Medium Earth Orbit

MHI Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.

MPCV Multi Purpose Crew Vehicle

MSS Mobile Satellite Services

NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NEC Nippon Electric Company

NGA National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency

NGSO Non-Geosynchronous Orbits
• 96 • 

Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation

NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

O3b Other Three Billion Networks, Ltd.

OHB Orbitale Hochtechnologie Bremen

Orbital Orbital Sciences Corporation

PSLV Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle

RCM RADARSAT Constellation Mission

RRV Reusable Return Vehicle

SAA Space Act Agreement

SAR Synthetic Aperture Radar

SBAS Satellite-Based Augmentation Systems

SNC Sierra Nevada Corporation

SpaceX Space Exploration Technologies Corporation

SPOT Satellite Pour l’Observation de la Terre

SSL Space Systems Loral

SSO Sun-Synchronous Orbit

SSTL Surrey Satellite Technology Limited

TBD To Be Determined

TSX TerraSAR X-band

UAE United Arab Emirates

UCISAT University of California, Irvine Satellite

UHF Ultra-High Frequency

ULA United Launch Alliance

USLM United States Munitions List

USAF United States Air Force

WAAS Wide Area Augmentation System
2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts

• 97 •
Federal Aviation Administration

Office of Commercial Space Transportation

800 Independence Avenue SW

Washington, DC 20591

http://www.faa.gov/go/ast