Federal Aviation

Administration

Presented to: REDAC

By: Nate Brown, Aniel Jardines, Dan Williams 

Office of Environment & Energy

Federal Aviation Administration

Date: August 13, 2016

Alternative Jet Fuels 

Tools & Analysis
Federal Aviation

Administration

Outline

• ASCENT 1 Team & Overview

• ASCENT 1 Supply Chain and Deployment

• Washington State Univ. siting in the PNW

• Univ. Tennessee Polysys feedstock modeling

• Volpe Alt. Fuels Transportation Optimization Tool (AFTOT)

• DOE NREL Biomass Scenario Model (BSM)

• Farm to Fly

• ASCENT 1 ICAO Alternative Fuel Task Force (AFTF) 

support

• Fuel production assessment

• Ongoing Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) work

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Federal Aviation

Administration

ASCENT Website: http://ascent.aero

Lead Universities:

• Washington State University (WSU)*

• Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)

Core Universities:

• Boston University (BU)

• Georgia Institute of Technology (Ga Tech)

• Missouri University of Science and 

Technology (MS&T)

• Oregon State University (OSU)*

• Pennsylvania State University (PSU)*

• Purdue University (PU)*

• Stanford University (SU)

• University of Dayton (UD)

• University of Hawaii (UH)*

• University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC)*

• University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC)

• University of Pennsylvania (UPenn)

• University of Tennessee (UT)*

• University of Washington (UW)* * Denotes USDA NIFA AFRI-CAP Leads and Participants &Sun Grant Schools

ASCENT

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Federal Aviation

Administration

Database Development

and Archive

Scenario and 

Sustainability Analysis

Project 

Outputs

ASCENT 01 Supply Chain Analysis

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Federal Aviation

Administration

WSU Siting Benefits and Strategies

REPURPOSE / RETROFIT

CAPEX – Low Equipment Costs

Low Infrastructure Costs

OPEX – No Labor Savings

Full Services

? - Energy/ Feedstock

GREENFIELD

CAPEX – Hi Equipment Costs

Hi Infrastructure Costs

OPEX – No Labor Savings

No Services

Low Energy/Feedstock

CO-LOCATE

CAPEX – Med Equipment Costs

Med Infrastructure Costs

OPEX – Hi Labor Savings

Full Services

Low Energy/ Feedstock

Valuable and attractive locations

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Federal Aviation

Administration

WSU layers – Facilities, Electricity, Gas, Demand, Infrastructure

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Conversion Facility

Depot

Potential Siting
Federal Aviation

Administration

WSU Depot Facility Score Example

Preliminary Results – Do Not Cite

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Federal Aviation

Administration

UTenn Polysys - Feedstock Supply Curves

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Federal Aviation

Administration

Alternative Fuels Transportation 

Optimization Tool (AFTOT)

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Flexible scenario testing tool optimizes feedstock flows, 

aggregation, conversion processing and fuel transport for 

local, regional and national scenarios.

Leverages data from ASCENT P1 on feedstock supply, 

biorefinery size and cost, conversion processes and product 

slate.

Volpe has constructed unique multimodal network of roadway, 

railway, waterway, and pipeline with associated transport and 

transloading costs.

Outputs of optimized scenarios include: 

• Material/commodity flows

• Potential biorefinery locations

• CO2 emissions

• Fuel burn

• Number of vehicle trips

• Distance, vehicle miles traveled

• Costs
Federal Aviation

Administration

0B2468Jet Fue 2015 1 billion gallons

AEO High Oil Price

$2/RIN

5 Offtake Agreements

65% Loan Guarantee

Production Tax Credit

AEO High Oil Price

$0.70/RIN

5 Offtake Agreements

65% Loan Guarantee

Production Tax Credit

AEO High Oil Price

$0.70/RIN

5 Offtake Agreements

No Loan Guarantee

No Production Tax Credit

AEO Reference Oil Price

$0.70/RIN

5 Offtake Agreements

80% Loan Guarantee

Production Tax Credit

AEO Reference Oil Price

$2/RIN

No Offtake Agreements

80% Loan Guarantee

Production Tax Credit

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NREL Biomass Scenario Analysis Model (BSM)

Necessary Assumptions for One Billion Gallons

Domestic simulation using ASCENT Project 1 results

for HEFA, ATJ and FT pathways
Federal Aviation

Administration

Policies affecting fuel price have a considerable impact on when aviation will get to 1 billion 

gallons of AJF production

NREL Biomass Scenario Analysis Model (BSM)

Necessary Assumptions for One Billion Gallons

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2015 Baseline + 5 CAAFI Offtake Agreements AEO 2015 Reference $0.70/RIN With Tax Credits + 65% Loan No Carbon Tax 80% Loan $2/RIN With Biofuels Tax Credits Only No Carbon Tax AEO 2015 High Oil $0.70/RIN With Tax Credits + 80% Loan $40/tonne Carbon Tax by 2040 $2/RIN With Tax Credits + 80% Loan $40/tonne Carbon Tax by 2040

Current policies

This figure shows possible scenarios that would accelerate reaching 1 billion gallons of 

renewable jet fuel production by 5, 10, 15, or 20 years.
Federal Aviation

Administration

Farm to Fly 2.0 (F2F2) Agreement 

Goal:

• Enable commercially viable, sustainable 

bio-Jet Fuel supply chains in the U.S. 

• Support the goal of one billion gallons of 

bio-Jet Fuel production capacity and use 

for the Aviation Enterprise by 2018

• ASCENT 1 & AFTOT future analysis 

supports efforts in Chesapeake, SE, 

PNW, Hawaii, Midwest

• USDA NIFA CAPs program targets jet 

fuel – linkages:

– ASCENT, CAAFI, F2F2

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Federal Aviation

Administration

International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) 

Alternative Fuels Task Force (AFTF)

• 2050 Global AJF Fuel Production Assessment (FPA) 

– Effort is complete – used for CAEP/10 Trends Assessment

– MIT conducted fuel production analysis

– MIT/ANL compiled life cycle GHG emissions factors

• LCA Methodology for the Global MBM

– CAEP/10 meeting accepted methodology to compute values -

MIT/Purdue/ANL/Volpe all instrumental to method development

– MIT will use methodology to develop core LCA default values

– Purdue will calculate induced land use change emissions

– Team is providing input on development of sustainability criteria

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Federal Aviation

Administration

AFTF FPA Approach

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• Scenario approach: Exploration of a wide range of parameters for 

environmental stringencies, socioeconomic development and policy-emphasis 

on bioenergy in general and alternative aviation fuels in particular
Federal Aviation

Administration

AFTF FPA Results

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• Large variability in results: 0-100% replacement of 

conventional jet fuels with alternative jet fuels depending on 

scenario by 2050

• Maximum GHG emissions of ~50% if all of conventional jet 

fuel is replaced with alternative jet fuels in 2050

• Range of emission reduction in mid-scenarios on the order 

of 10-20% in 2050, all of this could come from residues, 

waste and microalgae

• Higher replacement rates are feasible if alternative aviation 

biofuel production is prioritized over other usages 
Federal Aviation

Administration

AFTF Core LCA Work

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MIT leading effort to develop default core LCA values using agreedupon methodology for AJF production pathways of interest. 

Process: 

1. Develop guidance and memo to solicit data on fuels of interest to 

the aviation community 

2. Acceptance of existing LCA data/analyses that adhere to identified 

guidance; 

3. Augmentation of existing LCA data/analyses such that they adhere 

to the identified guidance; 

4. Aggregation of fuel production pathways on the basis of 

technology, feedstock, or production region, where shown to be 

appropriate; or

5. Calculation of new LCA data/analyses that adhere to the identified 

guidance.
Federal Aviation

Administration

AFTF Induced Land-Use Change Sample Problem

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Region Conventional Biofuel Advanced Biofuel for 

Ground Uses

Aviation Biofuel

U.S. Corn Ethanol

Soy biodiesel (FAME) Renewable diesel Soy jet (2016)

Cellulosic ethanol Cellulosic jet fuel (2016)

EU Canola biodiesel Canola jet (2016)

Wheat/sugarcane ethanol

Brazil Sugarcane ethanol

Soy biodiesel Soy jet (2016)

SE Asia Palm oil biodiesel Renewable diesel Palm oil jet (2016)

Purdue calculating ILUC values that will be added to the core LCA value to get 

the LCA factor that will be used within the GMBM. Currently working on 

sample value calculation.
Federal Aviation

Administration

Summary

• ASCENT P1 universities have teamed with DOT Volpe 

Center, DOE Argonne National Labs (ANL) and DOE 

National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) to conduct 

integrated alternative jet fuel analyses

• Creating domestic alternative jet fuel production scenarios to 

understand challenges in reaching 1 billion gallons of fuel 

production

• Providing robust technical support to the CAEP AFTF in 

evaluating future alt jet fuel production for trends assessment 

and to incorporate alt jet fuels within the global market based 

measure for international CO2 emissions

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