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Presented to: E&E REDAC Subcommittee By: Dr. Jim Hileman

Office of Environment and EnergyFederal Aviation Administration

Date: August 26, 2014

Modeling & Tools Update
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Outline

• Overview of tools and analysis• Interdependencies• Updates on efforts to develop tool suite• Future direction
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Tools and Analysis

We develop tools for specific purposes:• CAEP analyses

– Noise– Emissions (NOX, CO2, and Black Carbon)

– Global Market Based Measure

• NextGen analyses

– Performance reporting (annual basis)– Future goals analysis (out to 2050)– Assessing benefits of NextGen 

• Air space and airport design & planningNote this is not an all-inclusive list
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Knowledge, Tools, Mitigation, Analysis & Implem

Improved 

Scientific 

Knowledge

Avi

Enviro

Tool 

Develop 

Mitigation 

Solutions

Integrated 

Analysis

Characterize source 

of noise and 

emissions

Evaluate 

propagation of noise 

as well as dispersion 

and transformation 

of pollutants

Understand health 

and welfare impacts 

of noise and 

pollutants

EMS

Transition & 

Implementation
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Solution Development and Interdependen

Modeling wide range of solutions and their conseq

fuel use, noise and emissions (e.g., basket of mea

CO2 and a balanced approach for noise)

Emissions, Noise, & Fuel Burn 

Collected

Costs

Emissions

& Noise

Cost Benefit Analysis

Emissions

NoiseEmissions

Integrated

Noise, 

Emissions,

and 

Fuel Burn

Analyses

Single 

Flight/Airport

Regional

Global

Studies

Aviation 

Impa

Aviation 

Environmental 

Design Tool (AEDT)

Aviation Economics (APMT-E)

Aircraft DesignExisting Aircraft, New Aircraft, and/or Generic Fleet

Alternative FuelsSource and Composition

Policy and Scenarios

Including outputs from other tools and analyses as appropriate

Operations
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Roadmap Development & In-House A

Tools and Analysis Roadmap• Purpose: creating tools and analysis roadmap• Motivation: tools suite available to AEE is expanding 

– There are AEE programs that focus on development of: 

• Tools for specific analysis• Interfaces and linkages between tools within the AEE Tool • Methodologies / correlations to be incorporated within the A

– Need to create an overall roadmap on tools based on AEE nee

AEE Modeling Lab• Purpose: bringing additional tools into AEE modeling lab• Motivation: increased demand for in-house analysis to inform 

decision and budget investment

– AEE has required hardware capability in its modeling lab– Tools development will still reside with contractors– Near future focused on aircraft conceptual design tools and rap

analysis tools
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Efforts related to AEE analytical capabiliti

• AEDT 

– AEDT Development and Next Steps– Methods to accurately capture operational proc

• APMT-Economics• Aircraft performance analysis • Additional ASCENT projects• APMT-Impacts 

– Covered by noise and emissions briefings

• Alternative fuels analysis 

– Covered in alt fuels briefing
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AEDT

• Environmental Planning, Regulatory and Complia

Requirements 

• Tracking, Reporting and Future Projection of Syst

Environmental Performance

• Evaluation of Aviation Environmental Mitigation O

(aircraft and fuel technologies, and operational pr

• Analyses of International and Domestic Policy Op
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AEDT 2a Scope: Runway to Runway

• Replaced NIRS• AEDT 2a will be used for OAPM studies
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AEDT 2b Scope: Gate to Gate

• Will replace AEDT2a, EDMS, SAGE, INM 

and MAGENTA

• Will support environmental compliance, 

research, assessment and decision-making
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AEDT Development Update

• Released AEDT 2a in March 2012• Released Service Pack 2 in Feb. 2014 • Last beta version of AEDT2b will be completed in 

August 2014

• Next step will be to complete user interface and 

documentation

• AEDT2b being given to Design Review Group (DR

evaluation

• Release date depends on feedback from DRG ev

and other QA/QC checks
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AEDT: Next Steps

• AEDT2b Integration

– TARGETS: Procedure design tool– TAAM: Airport and airspace traffic simulation– SWAC: NAS-wide air traffic simulation tool

• Improvements to fuel burn and emissions modelin

particularly in the descent and approach phases

• Ground operation modeling improvements includi

modeling

• Ability to assemble a flight from different kinds of d

sensor path, track nodes, great circle)

• Integrate research results on noise propagation 
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APMT-Economics

• Starting work to improve model• Current capability:

– Model long-term aviation market response to introductio

environmental policy measures that directly affect aviatio

– Creates a fleet of aircraft and operations based on dema

and scenario inputs (economic and policy)

– Outputs: aircraft operating costs, aviation demand, and f

• Potential areas for improvement 

– Improved usability – Ability to support Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) develop– Increased functionality to model potential industry respo

• BAH is leading effort to examine potential tool imp

(former PARTNER students at BAH are leading th
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Aircraft Performance Analysis (1 of 2)

• PARTNER CoE Projects on aircraft technology ev

have concluded and we are currently evaluating re

– Environmental Design Space (EDS) - P14: Georgia Tec– CLEEN EDS - P36: Georgia Tech– Mission Specification Changes - P43: Stanford, Georgia 

BAH

– System Level Uncertainty Quantification - P48: MIT

• New ASCENT Projects

– Aircraft technology assessment (see next slide)– Helicopter performance (also discussed in noise briefing
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Aircraft Performance Analysis (2 of 2)

• ASCENT project (NOI-10) for aircraft technology a

– Provide modeling and assessment mechanism for CLEE– Evaluate broader future scenarios out to 2050– Supports NextGen Goals Analysis and CAEP trends ass

• Project team: 

– Georgia Tech, Purdue and Stanford. – Other ASCENT researchers will be invited to participate 

well as gov’t and industry.

• Primary Tasks:

– Define scenarios and assumptions to examine with gov’t

academia stakeholders in a workshop fashion

– Model aircraft technologies and configurations, heavily le

existing work

– Assess vehicle and fleet level performance
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ASCENT Projects to Improve Modeling

Rapid Fleet-wide Environmental Assessment Capab• Complement AEDT with lower fidelity screening tool capabi

examine large number of policy scenarios that could be quicand reduced to a manageable set of scenarios for more focufidelity analysis in the environmental tools suite.

Aircraft Design and Performance Tool Connectivity w• Extend compatibility of novel and existing aircraft design an

performance assessment tools with AEDT to enable assessfuture scenarios using broad range of aircraft models

Analytical Approach for Quantifying Noise from AdvaOperational Procedures• Developing analytical approach to address current noise mo

such that it will be possible to capture changes in communitto the use of advanced operational procedures
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Current & Future Direction

Current and Future Direction:• Develop tools to conduct analyses as needed for 

NextGen, and planning

• Incorporate latest research results and knowledge 

available environmental mitigation options

Potential Long-Term Efforts:• Incorporate PDARS (Performance Data Analysis & 

Reporting System) data stream into AEDT to streacomputation of annual noise and emissions inven

• Enable rapid calculation of noise and emissions 

consequences of aircraft operations to help inform operating the National Air Space