Housing Forecast: March 2024

23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.4 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.4 2023 2024 2025

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,385 1,450 1,371 1,483 1,369 1,402 1,392 1,387 1,392 1,406 1,410 1,415 1,413 1,387 1,406

 Percent Change: YoY -9.0 -1.8 1.3

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 834 930 967 1,051 1,002 1,005 1,009 1,012 1,018 1,031 1,040 1,049 945 1,007 1,034

 Percent Change: YoY -6.0 6.6 2.7

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 552 520 403 432 367 397 383 375 374 375 370 367 469 380 372

 Percent Change: YoY -14.4 -18.8 -2.3

 Total Home Sales 4,955 4,877 4,713 4,523 4,720 4,851 4,979 5,103 5,229 5,341 5,449 5,567 4,756 4,913 5,397

 Percent Change: YoY -16.1 3.3 9.8

 New Single-Family 638 691 693 643 685 698 704 708 717 726 737 743 666 699 731

 Percent Change: YoY 3.9 4.9 4.6

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 4,317 4,187 4,020 3,880 4,035 4,153 4,275 4,395 4,512 4,615 4,712 4,824 4,090 4,215 4,666

 Percent Change: YoY -18.7 3.0 10.7

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 Fannie Mae HPI 4.3 2.6 5.1 7.1 7.2 6.0 4.5 3.2 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 7.1 3.2 0.3

Percent: Quarterly Avg, Annual Avg

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 6.4 6.5 7.0 7.3 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.0 6.8 6.6 6.2

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 323 421 397 329 309 467 519 469 442 595 600 540 1,470 1,764 2,178

 Purchase 265 351 331 275 251 379 393 344 292 434 442 384 1,222 1,367 1,551

 Refinance 58 70 65 54 59 88 126 124 150 161 159 157 248 397 626

 Refinance Share (Percent) 18 17 16 16 19 19 24 26 34 27 26 29 17 23 29

March 11, 2024

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: The Fannie Mae HPI forecast is updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Freddie Mac. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's 

business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although 

the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, 

current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, 

forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management. 

Note: The Fannie Mae HPI forecast is updated on the first month of every quarter. Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from February 29, 2024; all other forecasts are based on the date above.

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