Housing Forecast: February 2021

20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 2020 2021 2022

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,484 1,079 1,432 1,592 1,579 1,527 1,479 1,472 1,468 1,469 1,471 1,474 1,380 1,514 1,471

 Percent Change: YoY 7.0 9.7 -2.9

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 968 766 1,037 1,237 1,244 1,198 1,138 1,123 1,115 1,109 1,104 1,098 991 1,176 1,106

 Percent Change: YoY 11.7 18.6 -5.9

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 517 313 395 355 335 329 341 349 353 361 367 376 389 339 364

 Percent Change: YoY -3.3 -13.0 7.6

 Total Home Sales 6,184 5,016 7,110 7,650 7,324 6,929 6,705 6,612 6,598 6,586 6,586 6,591 6,451 6,893 6,590

 Percent Change: YoY 7.1 6.9 -4.4

 New Single-Family 701 703 974 873 853 857 862 867 859 853 848 844 811 860 851

 Percent Change: YoY 18.7 6.0 -1.0

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,483 4,313 6,137 6,777 6,471 6,072 5,843 5,745 5,739 5,733 5,738 5,747 5,640 6,033 5,739

 Percent Change: YoY 5.6 7.0 -4.9

NSA, Thous. $

 Median New Home Price 330 323 333 348 362 356 360 364 377 366 368 372 334 361 371

 Median Existing Home Price 272 288 309 311 299 318 334 325 312 327 341 333 295 319 328

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 FHFA Purchase-Only Index 6.1 5.5 7.8 10.3 9.3 10.1 7.2 4.2 3.9 2.7 2.8 2.5 10.3 4.2 2.5

Percent

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.8 3.0

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.9

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 752 1,096 1,345 1,285 1,214 1,091 929 822 707 841 848 774 4,478 4,055 3,170

 Purchase 290 353 513 450 357 512 510 431 347 499 505 434 1,607 1,811 1,785

 Refinance 462 742 832 835 856 578 419 390 360 341 343 340 2,871 2,244 1,385

 Refinance Share (Percent) 61 68 62 65 71 53 45 48 51 41 40 44 64 55 44

 --------------- 2020 --------------- --------------- 2021 --------------- --------------- 2022 ---------------

February 10, 2021

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from January 29, 2021.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's 

business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although 

the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, 

current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, 

and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.