Housing Forecast: February 2020

19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 2019 2020 2021

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,213 1,256 1,282 1,441 1,385 1,378 1,380 1,390 1,407 1,411 1,411 1,421 1,290 1,383 1,412

 Percent Change: YoY 3.2 7.2 2.1

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 864 847 894 973 965 976 980 1,001 1,017 1,022 1,026 1,031 888 981 1,024

 Percent Change: YoY 1.4 10.4 4.4

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 349 409 388 468 420 402 400 389 390 389 385 390 402 403 388

 Percent Change: YoY 7.4 0.3 -3.5

 Total Home Sales 5,875 5,948 6,124 6,142 6,163 6,156 6,144 6,169 6,191 6,193 6,204 6,208 6,021 6,158 6,199

 Percent Change: YoY 1.1 2.3 0.7

 New Single-Family 669 661 698 699 728 726 728 745 759 763 767 772 681 732 765

 Percent Change: YoY 10.4 7.5 4.6

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,207 5,287 5,427 5,443 5,435 5,430 5,416 5,424 5,432 5,430 5,437 5,436 5,340 5,426 5,434

 Percent Change: YoY 0.0 1.6 0.1

NSA, Thous. $

 Median New Home Price 312 321 317 325 328 338 333 340 340 348 341 347 321 335 344

 Median Existing Home Price 253 277 277 272 266 291 291 284 276 300 298 291 272 283 291

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 FHFA Purchase-Only Index 5.5 5.2 4.9 5.0 4.8 5.0 5.1 4.6 3.8 3.1 2.6 2.5 5.0 4.6 2.5

Percent

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.9 3.4 3.4

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.6 3.1 3.0

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 334 540 715 729 629 629 544 479 407 559 551 487 2,318 2,281 2,004

 Purchase 227 360 381 338 261 395 389 341 271 411 402 351 1,306 1,386 1,435

 Refinance 107 180 334 392 368 234 155 138 136 148 149 136 1,012 895 569

 Refinance Share (Percent) 32 33 47 54 59 37 29 29 33 27 27 28 44 39 28

 --------------- 2019 --------------- --------------- 2020 --------------- --------------- 2021 ---------------

February 10, 2020

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from January 31, 2020.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or 

expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, 

analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. 

Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the 

views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.