Economic Forecast: February 2021

20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 2020 2021 2022

Percent Change: Quarterly SAAR, Annual Q4/Q4

 Gross Domestic Product -5.0 -31.4 33.4 4.0 4.3 9.4 7.7 5.3 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.4 -2.5 6.7 2.8

 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) -6.9 -33.2 41.0 2.5 3.9 9.1 8.1 5.6 4.2 3.8 2.8 2.4 -2.6 6.6 3.3

 Residential Fixed Investment 19.0 -35.6 63.0 33.5 16.9 -0.6 -6.2 -5.4 -2.4 -1.1 0.1 -0.9 13.7 0.7 -1.1

 Business Fixed Investment -6.7 -27.2 22.9 13.8 8.0 7.5 11.0 8.4 5.8 5.1 5.2 5.2 -1.3 8.7 5.3

 Government Consumption & Investment 1.3 2.5 -4.8 -1.2 2.5 13.1 6.7 1.0 -4.1 -5.0 -3.3 -1.5 -0.6 5.7 -3.5

Billions of Chained 2012$

 Net Exports -788 -775 -1019 -1121 -1184 -1227 -1283 -1310 -1282 -1217 -1155 -1120 -926 -1251 -1194

 Change in Business Inventories -81 -287 -4 45 64 96 137 185 173 147 131 120 -82 121 143

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 Consumer Price Index 2.1 0.4 1.3 1.2 1.6 2.9 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.6 1.2 2.3 2.6

 Core Consumer Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) 2.2 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.5 2.3 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.7 1.6 1.9 2.7

 PCE Chain Price Index 1.7 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.5 2.2 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.4 1.2 2.0 2.4

 Core PCE Chain Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) 1.8 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.5 2.1 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.5 1.4 1.9 2.5

Change: Quarterly Mo. Avg., Thous., Annual Mil.

 Employment, Total Nonfarm 44 -6,067 2,398 595 126 628 869 789 600 525 425 280 -9.1 7.2 5.4

 Percent Change: Q4/Q4 -6.0 5.1 3.6

Percent

 Unemployment Rate 3.8 13.0 8.8 6.8 6.2 5.6 5.1 4.6 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.8 8.1 5.4 4.0

 Federal Funds Rate 1.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1

1-Year Treasury Note Yield 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2

10-Year Treasury Note Yield 1.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 0.9 1.2 1.4

 --------------- 2020 --------------- --------------- 2021 --------------- --------------- 2022 ---------------

February 10, 2021

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from January 29, 2021.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's 

business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the 

ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current 

or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and 

other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.