Housing Forecast: February 2024

23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.4 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.4 2023 2024 2025

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,385 1,450 1,371 1,454 1,435 1,433 1,417 1,402 1,404 1,413 1,417 1,422 1,413 1,422 1,414

 Percent Change: YoY -9.0 0.6 -0.5

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 834 930 967 1,042 1,005 1,014 1,017 1,021 1,032 1,047 1,061 1,071 945 1,014 1,053

 Percent Change: YoY -6.0 7.4 3.8

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 552 520 403 412 429 419 399 382 372 365 356 351 469 407 361

 Percent Change: YoY -14.4 -13.1 -11.4

 Total Home Sales 4,965 4,941 4,713 4,448 4,731 4,927 5,101 5,226 5,358 5,484 5,598 5,730 4,758 4,996 5,543

 Percent Change: YoY -16.1 5.0 10.9

 New Single-Family 638 691 693 652 687 726 764 761 760 761 767 773 668 734 765

 Percent Change: YoY 4.2 9.9 4.2

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 4,327 4,250 4,020 3,797 4,044 4,201 4,338 4,465 4,598 4,723 4,831 4,957 4,090 4,262 4,777

 Percent Change: YoY -18.7 4.2 12.1

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 Fannie Mae HPI 4.3 2.6 5.1 7.1 7.2 6.0 4.5 3.2 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 7.1 3.2 0.3

Percent: Quarterly Avg, Annual Avg

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 6.4 6.5 7.0 7.3 6.5 6.3 6.1 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 6.8 6.2 5.7

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 339 429 402 332 334 508 562 512 493 644 644 576 1,502 1,916 2,358

 Purchase 280 358 335 275 264 404 420 369 309 462 470 409 1,249 1,457 1,649

 Refinance 59 71 66 57 70 104 143 143 184 182 175 168 253 459 709

 Refinance Share (Percent) 18 17 16 17 21 20 25 28 37 28 27 29 17 24 30

February 12, 2024

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from Janaury 31, 2024; all other forecasts are based on the date above.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: The Fannie Mae HPI forecast is updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Freddie Mac. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's 

business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although 

the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, 

current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, 

forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management. 

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