Presented to:

By:

Date:

Federal Aviation

Administration NextGen Environmental 

Management System

Goals and Targets Analysis 

Status Update

REDAC E&E Subcommittee

Chris Dorbian, AEE-400

August 26, 2014
Federal Aviation

Administration

Goals and Targets Background

• Aviation Environmental and 

Energy (E&E) Goals

– U.S. Climate Action Plan, E&E Policy 

Statement

– Noise, air quality, climate, and 

energy

• “Goals and Targets Analysis” 

– Forecasting progress against FAA 

performance goals using AEDT

– “System Improvements” scenario 

considers improvements from 

operations, technology, and 

alternative fuels

FAA Goal 

Category

FAA Performance Metric*

Climate Carbon neutral growth, starting in 

2020, relative to the 2005 emissions 

level

Energy: 

Alternative 

Fuels

1 billion gallons of renewable jet 

fuel used by aviation by 2018

Energy: 

EnergyEfficiency

Annual reduction of 2% (of year 

2000 level and starting in 2010 – as 

expressed collectively in the FAA 

business plan and portfolio of goals)

Noise Less than 300,000 people exposed 

to “significant aircraft noise” by 

2018

Air Quality 50% reduction, starting in 

2018,relative to 2005 level

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* Goals are subject to revision based on Administrator’s 

strategic priorities
Federal Aviation

Administration

Current Status

3

Update Forecast

• Update growth rates from 

2013 TAF-M

• Update retirement curves to 

CAEP10

• Update Growth & 

Replacement Fleet 

(consistent w/other CAEP 

analyses)

Create Baseline Scenario

• Synthesize forecast with 

base year COD (2010) to 

populate future baseline 

scenario

• Future aviation activity out 

to 2025

• No system improvements

AEDT

• Compress forecast into 

unique events (flights)

• Conduct single airport-level 

end-to-end testing in AEDT 

2b pre-release

• Execute full NAS-level 

“production” run

Post-processing

• Apply “System 

Improvements” (technology, 

operations, alternative fuels)

Communicate Results

• Hand over results to air 

quality analysis

• Document 

Here as 

of 8/6
Federal Aviation

Administration

Action Item #1: Historical 

Perspective

• Action: Provide 

historical perspective to 

future projections in Goals 

Analysis, as possible.

• For validating 

“Historical/Estimated”, 

exploring following data 

sources:

– BTS (T2)

– US Energy Information 

Administration

– International Energy Agency

4
Federal Aviation

Administration

Action Item #2: Multiple Scenarios

• Action: Capture optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic cases 

within the goals analysis as opposed to a single scenario for 

the future

5

Airframe and Engine

Technology

Operations Alternative Fuels

• Latest estimates from 

EDS Assessment of 

CLEEN Technologies 

(PARTNER Project 36)

• ASCENT NOI-10 

Aircraft Performance 

Assessment Project

• “Evolutionary” and 

“Aggressive” scenarios

• Current assumption 

(unimpeded, laterallydirect travel) = upper 

bound

• Leverage existing 

NextGen system-wide 

modeling (NGIP)

• Side task: enhanced 

modeling of NextGen 

OIs

• Current low-high

estimates from market 

survey analysis

• Alt Fuel Transportation 

Optimization Tool 

(AFTOT)

• ASCENT NOI-01 –

Supply Chain Analysis
Federal Aviation

Administration

Future Analysis Improvements

• Extend analysis timeframe

– 2040 at a minimum, ideally 2050 – examining TAF extension to 2050

– Explore connection to APMT-E for AC retirements

• Comparison to CAEP Trends Assessment (TAF-M int’l. vs. 

CAEP at a “route-group” level)

• Update base year to more recent COD (e.g., 2012)

• Expand improvement scenarios

– New aircraft configurations out to 2050 – leverage work of NASA

– Mission specification changes (i.e., PARTNER Project 43 led by Stanford)

• Operational Improvement changes:

– Automate derivation of efficiency factor

– Radar-based modeling path  incorporate advanced operations research 

(e.g., Cruise Altitude/Speed Optimization)

• Use ANG-5 SWAC outputs to inform delay growth

• General Aviation / military noise sensitivity

• Leverage alt fuels work

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Relevant to 

2015 Climate 

Action Plan