Housing Forecast: March 2023

22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.4 2022 2023 2024

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,720 1,647 1,450 1,405 1,247 1,169 1,108 1,096 1,135 1,169 1,210 1,249 1,553 1,155 1,191

 Percent Change: YoY -3.0 -25.6 3.1

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 1,187 1,086 905 848 783 734 730 769 808 841 864 880 1,008 754 848

 Percent Change: YoY -10.6 -25.2 12.5

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 533 561 545 557 464 435 379 327 327 329 346 369 545 401 343

 Percent Change: YoY 15.1 -26.5 -14.5

 Total Home Sales 6,759 5,975 5,356 4,796 4,766 4,591 4,546 4,605 4,737 4,871 5,021 5,190 5,671 4,627 4,955

 Percent Change: YoY -17.7 -18.4 7.1

 New Single-Family 776 609 580 599 642 601 592 597 603 610 618 629 641 608 615

 Percent Change: YoY -16.9 -5.1 1.1

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,983 5,367 4,777 4,197 4,124 3,990 3,955 4,008 4,134 4,261 4,404 4,560 5,030 4,019 4,340

 Percent Change: YoY -17.8 -20.1 8.0

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 Fannie Mae HPI 20.0 19.1 13.8 9.2 2.0 -3.1 -4.2 -4.2 -3.7 -3.4 -2.6 -2.3 9.2 -4.2 -2.3

Percent: Quarterly Avg, Annual Avg

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.8 5.2 5.6 6.7 6.4 6.6 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.3 6.5 5.9

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 753 678 534 393 296 415 435 404 361 510 533 484 2,358 1,550 1,887

 Purchase 393 505 434 328 241 343 349 308 250 376 381 341 1,660 1,241 1,349

 Refinance 360 174 100 64 55 72 86 96 111 134 152 143 698 309 539

 Refinance Share (Percent) 48 26 19 16 19 17 20 24 31 26 28 29 30 20 29

March 13, 2023

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from February 28, 2023; all other forecasts are based on the date above.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: The Fannie Mae HPI forecast is updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Freddie Mac. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

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Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or 

expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, 

analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. 

Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the 

views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management. 

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