Housing Forecast: March 2019

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Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)

Housing Starts 1,317 1,261 1,234 1,151 1,229 1,247 1,267 1,280 1,287 1,288 1,289 1,288 1,242 1,256 1,288

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 889 896 877 804 850 879 902 926 934 937 939 940 871 889 938

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 2.6% 2.1% 5.4%

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 428 365 357 347 379 368 365 354 353 351 350 348 374 367 351

New Single-Family Home Sales 656 633 605 590 624 628 634 642 651 661 663 664 622 632 660

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year 1.5% 1.6% 4.4%

Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops) 5,507 5,407 5,307 5,143 5,112 5,355 5,440 5,446 5,449 5,454 5,457 5,459 5,340 5,338 5,454

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year -3.1% 0.0% 2.2%

Total Home Sales (New + Existing) 6,163 6,039 5,912 5,733 5,736 5,983 6,074 6,088 6,100 6,115 6,120 6,123 5,962 5,970 6,114

 Percent Change: Year-over-Year -2.6% 0.1% 2.4%

Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)

Median New 331 314 326 316 347 328 340 328 360 338 349 336 325 336 346

Median Total Existing 244 266 264 256 256 278 275 266 265 286 282 273 259 269 277

FHFA Purchase-Only Index (% Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4) 7.4% 6.8% 6.5% 5.7% 4.4% 4.4% 4.5% 4.2% 4.0% 3.3% 2.8% 2.8% 5.7% 4.2% 2.8%

Mortgage Rates (Percent)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.1 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.9 4.0

Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)

Mortgage Originations 374 447 419 362 321 445 437 390 334 455 448 400 1,600 1,594 1,637

 Purchase 227 335 319 264 220 335 333 288 236 356 347 300 1,145 1,176 1,238

 Refinance 147 111 100 97 101 110 104 102 98 99 100 101 456 417 399

Refinance Share (%) 39% 25% 24% 27% 32% 25% 24% 26% 29% 22% 22% 25% 28% 26% 24%

March 11, 2019

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from February 28, 2019.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating 

Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend 

on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided 

in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. 

The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views 

of Fannie Mae or its management.

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