FY 2016 Weather PPTOverview

By: 	Steve Abelman	

Date:	March 12, 2014

Weather Program, A11.k

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Program Overview

Applied research to minimize the impact of weather on the NAS
        - Specific initiatives to support NextGen weather Operational Improvements contained in the NextGen Implementation Plan 
        - Collaborative, complimentary initiatives with NWS to transition legacy capabilities to meet current and future requirements
        - Focused initiatives to help mitigate safety and/or efficiency issues associated with well documented weather problems

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FY16 Core Wx Program Portfolio
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| In-Flight Icing |
| Turbulence |
| Convective Storms |
| Ceiling and Visibility |
| Volcanic Ash |
| Model Development and Enhancement |
| Advanced Weather Radar Techniques (AWRT) |
| Quality Assessment |
| Aviation Weather Demonstration & Evaluation (AWDE) Services |
| Wind Compression for NY Metro Terminals |

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FY16 AVS Wx Portfolio

AVS sponsored and prioritized research initiatives to address select safety concerns in the short and mid-term time horizon, but consistent with current and future requirements
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| Terminal Area Icing Weather Information for NextGenImproved icing weather information including SLD in terminal area in response to new SLD certification rule |
| Mitigate the Ice Crystal Weather Threat to Aircraft Turbine EnginesHIWC ice crystal data set sufficient for assessment of certification envelopes, development of test facilities, and diagnosis and forecasting for avoidance |
| Using Data Linked Aircraft Sensed Wx Info to Determine Probability of Icing Conditions AloftDevelop technique to use ac-based data correlated with hi-prob known icing conditions to alert GA |
| Onboard Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) Data ValidationDevelop EDR system performance standard for turbulence & wake applications |

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Projects:
        -  In-Flight Icing
        -  Turbulence
        -  Convective Storms
        -  Ceiling & Visibility
        -  Volcanic Ash

Key Deliverables FY14-16:

FY14 - Mountain-Wave TRB Forecast capability, all FLs

FY15 – Develop Offshore Precipitation capability (radar proxy) to extend coverage beyond NextRad

FY16 - Develop enhanced CONUS C&V analysis capability incorporating technology from AK efforts

FY16 - AK icing forecast & diagnosis capability

FY16 - Finalize VA modeling approach to forecast ash density

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Hazardous Weather Mitigation

Description:

Need: More accurate, relevant weather information to address efficiency and safety shortfalls in commercial and GA operations

Concept: Improve quality and applicability of weather information used for decision support in air carrier (emphasis on efficiency) and GA (emphasis on safety) operations

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Key Deliverables FY14-16:

FY13-Study determining NAS user's & operators understanding of  wx uncertainty info & application to decision making

FY14 - Develop baseline for future capabilities

FY15 - Transition AK C&V analysis capability to NWS

FY17 - Derive SIGMETs from grids in collaboration with NWS

Projects:
        -  Weather Uncertainty
        -  Alaska C&V Analysis 
        -  Weather requirements validation through simulation and modeling 

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Evolving Current Capabilities

Description:

Need:  Weather information as required today in many legacy capabilities must evolve significantly to meet emerging NextGen DST needs

Concept:  FAA Weather requirements today, often levied on the National Weather Service, will evolve and change as NextGen concepts emerge. AWRP research, often in collaboration with NWS, will explore ways to derive legacy weather information from the highly automated weather paradigm likely in the future

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Projects:
        -  Wind Compression for NY Metro Terminals
        -  Service Analysis	
        -  Time of Wind Return
        -  Winter Wx Ops & ATM Impacts
        -  Convective Weather forecast prediction modeling

Key Deliverables FY14-16:

FY15 - Develop tool utilizing hi-res wind forecasts and/or existing model data to predict onset & cessation of terminal "wind compression" conditions

FY15-16 - Develop process for using tool in operational setting 

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Direct linkage to NextGen Implementation Plans  

Description:

Need:  Research to meet specific NextGen weather Operational Improvements as called out in NextGen Implementation Plans 

Concept:  Emerging DSTs will require high fidelity, high resolution weather information, but many research questions must be asked: 
        - How “good” the weather information is today?
        - What gaps exist in today’s available weather information?
        - What fundamental weather research needs to be done to actually support the performance of the new DST?

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Key Deliverables FY14-16:

FY14 - RAP v2 operational at NWS 

FY14 - MRMS operational at NWS

FY15 - HRRR operational at NWS (3km storm scale resolution)

FY16 - 3D in-flight hazards grid using MRMS capability

Projects:
        -  Model Development and Enhancement
        -  Advanced Weather Radar Techniques

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Weather Modeling and Sensing

Description:

Need:  NextGen will rely on improvements and updates to atmospheric numerical models and weather sensing techniques to meet the emerging requirements of new DSTs and other advances to ATM applications.

Concept: Improvements in model physics and nested grids, coupled with effective sensing data will lead to more accurate forecasts and nowcasts in high density airspace and high traffic areas.  The integration of data streams from multiple radars, surface and upper air observations, lightning detection systems, and satellite and forecast models will provide severe weather and precipitation products for improved aviation decision-making capability.  This Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) capability will also function as a validation tool for high-resolution forecasts and decision support tools.

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Projects:
        -  Research Evolution Planning
        -  Quality Assessment
        -  Aviation Weather Demonstration & Evaluation

  Services

Key Deliverables FY14-16:

FY14 -Modeling Research Evolution Plan

FY14 -Met Verification of Hi-Res Icing forecast/diag.

FY15 -Initial assessment of offshore precip capability

FY16 -Met Verification of Icing Product AK forecast/diag.

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Ensuring Effective Research 

Description:

Need:  To insure the relevancy of weather research, strict processes with regard to prioritization, quality assurance, and operational evaluation are adhered to. 

Concept:  All AWRP projects are subject to: 
        - Prioritization with respect to operational needs
        - Quality assessment for scientific goodliness
        - Evaluation and demonstration for operation relevancy 

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AWRP and OWNA
        - As requirements from the OWNA process evolve, AWRP will feed these needs/requirements into our prioritization process (Research Evolution Planning, Weather PPT)
        - AWRP looking for right balance between short term research initiatives and longer term NextGen concepts
        - AWRP collaboration with WTIC program critical as needs/requirements for weather information in the cockpit often different than weather needs for other ATM decisions

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Quantification of GA Safety Benefits

(1) Finding:  One of the principal justifications for both the Weather PPT Portfolio and the Weather Technology in the Cockpit programs is that they would provide a safety benefit to general aviation (GA).  Both programs cite the 75% average fatality rate in GA weather-related accidents and the fact that GA accounts for 88% of weather-related aviation accidents.  However, the subcommittee was presented with no evidence of any systematic study of the causality of these accidents that leads to the conclusion that better forecast tools or cockpit display of weather will substantially reduce the GA weather-related accident rate.

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Part 91 Weather Causes

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NTSB Briefing Slide – Summer 2013 FPAW

Part 91 Weather Causes

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NTSB Briefing Slide – Summer 2013 FPAW

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Sorted to Identify Alaska GA Accidents

Alaska GA accidents represent a disproportionate percentage of the total GA accidents 
| General Aviation Accidents Involving Weather as a Cause or Factor |
|-------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Year                                                              | Acc | Fatal_Acc |
| 2000                                                              | 377 | 92 |
| 2001                                                              | 337 | 64 |
| 2002                                                              | 349 | 81 |
| 2003                                                              | 362 | 94 |
| 2004                                                              | 342 | 86 |
| 2005                                                              | 308 | 66 |
| 2006                                                              | 271 | 69 |
| 2007                                                              | 292 | 64 |
| Total                                                             | 2638 | 616 |
| General Aviation Accidents Involving Weather as a Cause or Factor - ALASKA ONLY |
|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Year                                                                            | Acc | % Total |
| 2000                                                                            | 32 | 8.5 |
| 2001                                                                            | 31 | 9.2 |
| 2002                                                                            | 29 | 8.3 |
| 2003                                                                            | 24 | 6.6 |
| 2004                                                                            | 29 | 8.5 |
| 2005                                                                            | 27 | 8.8 |
| 2006                                                                            | 19 | 7.0 |
| 2007                                                                            | 16 | 5.5 |
| Total                                                                           | 207 | 7.8 |

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Wx Program Research Focused on AK GA Safety
        - Challenges in AK include unique demographic and weather conditions coupled with it being a Wx data-sparse region
        - VFR flight into IFR represents cause of highest percentage of Alaska GA accidents
        - The Wx Program Portfolio includes two focused initiatives in Alaska:
        - Development of Ceiling and Visibility Analysis capability in collaboration with the NWS AAWU that will provide a “first-guess” of existing conditions; use of non-traditional data sources such as existing wx cameras, coupled with surface wx obs, satellite imagery, numerical model output, and possibly pilot reports
        - Development of an Icing Product Alaska (IPA) that will provide a diagnosis and forecast capability of in-flight icing conditions utilizing numerical models, satellite data, and surface wx obs.  

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