Housing Forecast: June 2023

22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.4 2022 2023 2024

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,718 1,636 1,446 1,405 1,382 1,374 1,275 1,200 1,182 1,208 1,248 1,294 1,553 1,308 1,233

 Percent Change: YoY -3.0 -15.8 -5.7

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 1,182 1,084 901 850 830 851 815 801 809 836 856 880 1,005 824 845

 Percent Change: YoY -10.8 -18.0 2.5

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 535 551 545 556 552 523 461 398 373 372 392 414 547 483 388

 Percent Change: YoY 15.5 -11.7 -19.8

 Total Home Sales 6,747 5,970 5,359 4,795 4,972 4,932 4,777 4,743 4,812 4,909 5,012 5,153 5,671 4,861 4,971

 Percent Change: YoY -17.7 -14.3 2.3

 New Single-Family 763 603 583 598 645 671 646 628 618 624 624 629 641 647 624

 Percent Change: YoY -16.9 1.0 -3.6

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,983 5,367 4,777 4,197 4,327 4,260 4,131 4,116 4,194 4,285 4,388 4,524 5,030 4,213 4,348

 Percent Change: YoY -17.8 -16.2 3.2

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 Fannie Mae HPI 19.6 18.5 12.9 8.7 4.7 -0.1 -0.8 -1.2 -2.5 -2.6 -2.2 -2.2 8.7 -1.2 -2.2

Percent: Quarterly Avg, Annual Avg

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.8 5.2 5.6 6.7 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.3 6.1 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.3 6.4 5.9

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 774 683 534 396 323 437 424 405 343 514 551 493 2,386 1,588 1,901

 Purchase 386 495 426 327 265 370 361 322 250 396 401 360 1,633 1,318 1,408

 Refinance 388 188 108 69 58 67 64 82 93 118 149 133 753 270 493

 Refinance Share (Percent) 50 27 20 17 18 15 15 20 27 23 27 27 32 17 26

June 12, 2023

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from May 31, 2023; all other forecasts are based on the date above.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: The Fannie Mae HPI forecast is updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Freddie Mac. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or 

expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, 

analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. 

Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the 

views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management. 

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