NAS Ops Subcommittee  Review

By: Gary Pokodner, Program Manager, Weather Technology in the Cockpit (WTIC)		

Date: September 13, 2017	

Weather Technology in the Cockpit (WTIC)

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Weather Technology in the Cockpit (WTIC) - Program Description
        - Research projects to develop, verify, and validate recommendations for incorporation into Minimum Weather Service (MinWxSvc) standards/guidance

FAR Part 121, OPERATING REQUIREMENTS: DOMESTIC, FLAG, AND SUPPLEMENTAL OPERATIONS (i.e. commercial operations)

FAR Part 135, OPERATING REQUIREMENTS: COMMUTER AND ON DEMAND OPERATIONS AND RULES GOVERNING PERSONS ON BOARD SUCH AIRCRAFT (i.e. commuter, on demand, and air taxi operations)

FAR Part 91, GENERAL OPERATING AND FLIGHT RULES (includes General Aviation operations)
        - The MinWxSvc is defined as: 

Minimum cockpit meteorological  (MET) information

Minimum performance standards (e.g. accuracy) of the MET information 

Minimum information rendering standards

Enhanced weather training

Minimum cockpit technology capability recommendations

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WTIC Program Overview

Purpose
        - Identify causal factors for weather-related General Aviation (GA) safety risks/hazards
        - Identify causal factors for Part 121/135 adverse weather safety risks/hazards and NAS operational inefficiencies (current and NextGen)
        - Recommend MinWxSvc(s) to resolve/reduce identified safety risks and NAS inefficiencies 
        - Recommend enhancements to pilot MET-training to resolve training shortfalls 

Budget

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| FY16(funded) | FY17(funded) | FY18(request) | FY19(request) |
|--------------|--------------|---------------|---------------|
| $3.1M        | $3.3M        | $3.3M         | $3.3M         |

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DRAFT TEMPLATE

WTIC Program Overview

Benefits 
        - Enhanced safety by resolving/reducing adverse-weather safety risks before they result in an accident/incident
        - Enhanced NAS efficiency and increased capacity resulting from consistent and predictable pilot adverse weather decision making due to established cockpit minimum weather service(s)
        - Reduced emissions due to enhanced efficiency
        - Reduction in flight delays
        - Enhanced safety resulting from the resolution of pilot MET-training shortfalls

Tracking
        - Developing spreadsheet to track gaps, operational shortfalls, and MinWxSvc(s) recommendations 

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DRAFT TEMPLATE

Open NAS Ops Recommendations and Action Items
        - No NAS Ops Open Action Items or Recommendations 

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CURRENT AND PLANNED ACCOMPLISHMENTS – HIGHLIGHTS ON SELECTED PROJECTS

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Part 121/135 - Wind Study  
        - Completed Phase 5 Final Report
        - Comparison of Global Forecast System (GPS) and High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) data to Meteorological Data Collection and Reporting System (MDCRS) data
        - Analysis of current and future Flight Management Systems (FMSs) to conduct operations to lower altitudes
        - Evaluation of potential sources of aircraft-derived winds to better support 4D-TBO activities
        - Completed and released RTCA DO-369 – Guidance for the Usage of Data Linked Forecast and Current Wind Information in Air Traffic Management
        - This document primarily examines the impact of wind information on wake mitigation, Required Time of Arrival (RTA), and Interval Management (IM)

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Part 121/135 Wind Study
        - Completed Phase 6 Kickoff Meeting, Prioritized Tasks
        - Develop specification source material for uplinking wind information (address action items from TBO demonstration)
        - Conduct further analysis with future FMS capabilities focusing on low altitude RTA analyses
        - Analysis of 4D-TBO with current FMS capabilities
        - Analysis of procedural routes with East Coast focus

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Part 121 - Remote Oceanic Meteorological Information Operational (ROMIO)

Project Description

Operational demonstration to evaluate feasibility to uplink convective weather information to aircraft operating over oceanic & remote regions.

Explore strategies for using updated cloud-top height (CTH) and convective diagnosis oceanic (CDO) weather graphics on flight deck, by OCCs, & by Airline Operations Centers (AOC).

Understand costs & benefits 

Project Accomplishments

Approved and Signed Project Plan, Participants identified

Received FAA Safety Review Board approval to proceed with operational demo

Institutional Review Board (IRB) approval received

Developed viewer for CTH/CDO products in the cockpit (see backup)

Using entertainment datalinks and WiFi to cockpit (GoGo and Panasonic)

Began cost benefits analysis planning with VA Tech

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Part 121 – Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) Tech Transfer

Project Description

Update the EDR technical transfer package to enable a 10 Hz sampling rate and to resolve issues identified in the initial release

Accomplishments – Completed updated package

Supported Delta’s testing to deploy EDR software on B737s due to ACMS upgrade, about 140 aircraft

Supported Delta’s effort for A330 implementation and efforts to collect high-rate data

Updated EDR software to handle different data rates using compiler option and precompile step.  Simplified procedures and testing.  Created fully adapted 10 Hz version.  Sampling rate is fully adjustable, but not real time.

Updated software and documentation based on feedback

Made ground-based real-time software easier to deploy and more robust, and major updates for decoding and quality controlling downlinked messages

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Part 91 Mobile MET
        - Completed Mobile MET MinWxSvc  recommendations document
        - Pursuing outreach and publication, and monitoring impacts.  Target audience GA pilots and mobile MET app developers
        - Business Aviation Insider upcoming article, AOPA and NTSB TBD
        - Recommendations generally pursue synchronizing mobile app automation and renderings to the pilot’s workflow.  Information available at a glance.
        - Pilots unanimously selected runway oriented wind component rendering, workload reduction demonstrated
        - Follow on study completed to assess pilot interpretation accuracy under time pressure. Data analysis on-going.

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Part 91 – Crowds and Clouds

Project Description

Use commercially available crowd sourcing infrastructure to produce visibility information from Alaska webcams.  Store and distribute resulting information via cloud storage.

Project Accomplishments

Completed live demonstration at the Tech Center using 6 Alaska webcams

Overall performance was good

Proved out algorithms used to converge to a solution and to rate evaluators

Identified algorithm and procedural issues, and challenging visibility conditions

Resolved algorithm issues and some challenging visibility assessment conditions

Coordinated with Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP) and personnel from CAMI to support upcoming 3 month dry run test on prototype webcam site

Demo was scheduled to start in July, but on hold due to funding issues in Alaska

Began work to update prototype configuration to implementation configuration

Self hosted crowd sourcing versus Amazon Mechanical Turk

Current paid weather observers to act as primary “crowd”

Hybrid solution using edge-detection software to monitor stable conditions 

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Part 91 – Crowds and Clouds (cont)

Benefits Assessment Results

Crowd sourced data easier to evaluate visibility conditions than using webcam images

Crowd sourced data easier to determine visibility trends than using webcam images

Workload (mental and time) reduced using crowd sourced data

Pilots did not fully trust the crowd sourced data

Assessment included objective and subjective (pilot ratings) measurements, results of both were comparable

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Part 91 – Visual Flight Rules Not Recommended Statement (VNR)

Project Description

Enhance GA safety by identifying key weather parameters and information that drive Go/No Go decisions by pilots and VNR decisions by Flight Service Station Specialists.

Investigate AOPA/GA concern that VNR is over used thus reducing safety benefits

Determine if statement issuance can be more objective and thus automated

Identify supporting details that may enhance effectiveness of VNR

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Part 91 – Visual Flight Rules Not Recommended Statement (VNR)

Accomplishments

Developed team of stakeholders: AOPA, Flight Standards, Flight Services, Future Flight Service, WTIC, NAFI

Scoped research effort

Working group drafted planning document, 

Identified capability to get archived weather

Overview of research: Provide scenarios with standard weather information to pilots and specialists and have each participant decide if VNR statement should be issued and why.  Second scenario will provide VNR statement from specialists to see impact on pilots.  Third scenario will be to provide both groups with flight category information (VFR, IFR, etc) versus visibility data.

Need to determine if Leidos specialists (union) will participate.  Leidos management and QA are backup option. 

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Transition to Implementation Accomplished

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| WTIC Output/Product                                                                                   | Recipient                                                                     | How WTIC Output Used                                                                                                                                                                                                                    |
|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Wind Trade Studies                                                                                    | RTCA S-206, 227, 186NextGen Operations (AIM, TBO)Industry (FMS manufacturers) | RTCA Wind Guidance Document (DO-369) July 13, 2017Development of standards and performance requirements impacted by winds                                                                                                               |
| MinWxSvc Recommendation Final Reports                                                                 | RTCA SC-206FAA Certification                                                  | MOPS for FIS-B with UAT (invoked by TSO-157B)                                                                                                                                                                                           |
| Human Factors Research Papers and Final Reports                                                       | SAE                                                                           | ARP-5740                                                                                                                                                                                                                                |
| NEXRAD Scenario-Based Training Module                                                                 | FAA AFS-850, AVS                                                              | Training on FAASTeam Website                                                                                                                                                                                                            |
| Private Pilot written exam weather knowledge test questions                                           | AFS-630                                                                       | Updated weather knowledge questions on exam and practice questions                                                                                                                                                                      |
| General Aviation gap analysis final reports and some initial MinWxSvc recommendations to resolve them | GA Pilot Community (AOPA)Aviation Industry                                    | Magazine articles including: FAA Safety, AOPA, Avionics News, Managing the Skies, Pilots Guide to Avionics, Journal of Human Factors,  Air Traffic ManagementPresentations to pilots and industry at FPAW, Sun N Fun, NBAA, conferences |
| Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) Uplink and Technical Transfer Package                                     | Delta Airlines, Boeing, Communications Providers                              | Delta pilots using EDR viewerBoeing selling EDR as option in ACMS package (sold to United already)                                                                                                                                      |

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Transition to Implementation Plans

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| WTIC Output/Product                                          | Recipient                                                                                            | How WTIC Output Used                                                                                                       |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Weather Information Latency Trainer (WILD)                   | FRASCA, Redbird, other simulator manufacturers, AFS-600                                              | Incorporate WILD capabilities into commercial trainers and simulators                                                      |
| WILD Training Curriculum                                     | Schools, FAASTeam Website                                                                            | Provide training on weather latency with or without a WILD or WILD capability                                              |
| Psychometrics of test questions                              | Flight Standards (AFS-630)                                                                           | Identify level of pilot weather knowledge to be tested                                                                     |
| Crowd Sourced Visibility Information (Potentially Wind Also) | FAA Alaska Webcam Site (Prototype site first)National Weather Service (based on information quality) | Populate visibility and wind fields in new Weather InSight configuration                                                   |
| Tactical Turbulence Notification MinWxSvc Recommendation     | FAA Flight StandardsAirlinesIndustry                                                                 | Weather product application and/or standard defining performance                                                           |
| Mobile MET MinWxSvc Recommendations                          | IndustryPilots                                                                                       | Provide Mobile app developers recommendations to support pilot decision making.Educate pilots on app features to look for. |
| Cloud Top Heights and Convective Oceanic Diagnostic          | FAA  Flight Standards, Airlines                                                                      | Enhanced decision making an efficiency in oceanic regions with respect to convection                                       |

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Transition via Outreach

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        - The FAA has begun research to help answer that question and measure the present effectiveness of "VFR not recommended." The agency’s  Weather Technology in the Cockpit  (WTIC) program has made this research a priority as the FAA prepares to award its Future Flight Service Program contract in 2018. AOPA believes that making a decision about the usefulness of "VFR not recommended" should be a top-priority task for the FAA’s flight service. 

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Sun N Fun Outreach Accomplishments
        - Provided detailed presentation, including safety forum briefing, to the senior editor of Flying 
        - Indicated plan to publish two articles on WTIC
        - Plane & Pilot and NAFI’s member magazine indicated plan to publish article on WTIC (no schedule) 
        - Met with CEO of Aero Safety Systems (UK startup producing cockpit alert/notification panels)
        - Expressed interest in implementing PEGASAS adverse weather notification research based on research results
        - Hosted GA Safety Forum to brief WTIC research
        - Well received, numerous questions and requests for presentation materials 

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New Projects FY17/18 - Highlights
        - Voice Interface – usability and applicability assessment of current technology.  Assess potential benefits.  Line of sight is weather “digital copilot.”
        - Auto PIREPS – usability study on current technologies and applications that may be useful for automating PIREPS
        - Nulling NEXRAD Latency – assess pilot decision making and weather situational awareness using current NEXRAD information versus NEXRAD with latency nulled out using short term forecasts

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New Projects FY17/18 - Highlights
        - GA Pilot Estimating Distances to Weather – develop tool to assist pilots in determining distances to weather and assess impacts on adverse weather decision making
        - Use Harris’ Helios product for feasibility and usability study on determining surface winds with camera images of wind socks

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BACKUP SLIDES

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BACKUP SLIDESPART 121

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BACKUP   Why Two Convective Products?
        - Two products better characterize convective storm
        - CTH gives full extent of cloud cover and height
        - CDO shows location of updraft/lightning hazards

CTH Contours

CDO Contours

Part 121 - Remote Oceanic Meteorological Information Operational (ROMIO) BACKUP

EFB Viewer of CTH/CDO (zoomed In)

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BACKUP SLIDESPART 91

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Part 91 Mobile MET – Backup 
        - MinWxSvc Recommendations Sample
        - Tailor Presentation for Phase of Flight
        - Render for High Glance Value with Drill-down
        - Enhance the Depiction of Runway Winds
        - Tailor Presentations Recommendations Sample

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| Phase of Flight | Primary Types of Weather Products                                                                                                                     |
|-----------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Flight planning | synoptic weather presented as wide area maps and analyses                                                                                             |
| Pre-flight      | winds, ceiling, visibility, temperature/dewpoint, hazardous conditions, and warnings at the departure, en-route, alternates, and destination airports |
| Take-off        | current surface winds, ceiling, visibility, temperature/dewpoint, and winds aloft around the airfield                                                 |
| En-route        | cloud levels and obscuration, convection, turbulence, icing, and pilot reports along the flight route, at alternates, and at destination              |
| Approach        | ceiling and visibility, winds aloft, and runway weather conditions                                                                                    |
| Landing         | magnitude, direction, and changes in surface winds                                                                                                    |

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CROWDS AND CLOUDS
        - BACKUP
        - Clear day image and actual 

camera views with crowd source

results

Crowds and Clouds - Backup
        - Sample Display