Kathy H. Abbott, PhD, FRAeS

Federal Aviation Administration11 September 2014

Fede

Today’s Human AdmFactors Challenges, Tomorrow’s Vision
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Flightpath 2050

• Societal and market needs• Industrial leadership• Environment and energy• Safety and security• Prioritizing research

http://ec.europa.eu/transport/modes/air/doc/flightpath2050.p
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Characteristics of Civil Aviat

• Dynamic• Complex• Market driven• Rapidly changing technology
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Outline

• Challenges• Vision• HF R&D to support the vision
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Challenges for Aviation Safe

• Societal expectations for safety• One size does not fit all• Increasing amounts and types of 

operational data

• Pressures: economic, security, 

environmental

• Changing workforce demographics• Changes in technology and operations• Where to put risk mitigation
“Personal” vs. “Public” Ri

Assumption

Skiing

Scuba Diving

Mountain Climbing

Smoking Hang Gliding

& Ultralights

Commercial

Flight

SightSeeingFlights

PrivateAviation

Significant Personal

Choice/Freedom

Private

Risk

HighwayAccidents

Small

Aircraft

Accidents

Large

Aircraft

Accidents

Hig

Concern/R
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Governmental Role

Personal

&

Commercial

Mail Air Traffic

Services

Commercial

Aviation

Safety

PrivateAviationSafety

International

Aviation

Agreements

Government

Enables

Government

Oversight

Government

Does

Ideas

Free Speech

Religion
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0123456

Amateur-built

LSA

Personal

Business

On demand part 135

Scheduled part 135

Corporate

Scheduled part 121

Fatal Accidents per 100,000 Flight Hours

U.S. Aviation Fatal Accident RatAnnual Average from 2005 through 2009
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Cessna 1401946

Lockheed Constellation1943

Douglas DC-61947

Cessna 1951947

PHOTO: Everts Air Cargo

PHOTO: Bidgee

PHOTO: Tom Gideon

Society’s Safety Expectations – Circ

CommercialGeneralAviation

Societally Accepted Risk

(1940s)

PHOTO: Public Domain

LessDemand

MoreDemand

Public Demand for Safety Assurance
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LessDemand

MoreDemand

Public Demand for Safety Assurance

Society’s Safety Expectations – TodContinuously Advancing...

(2014)
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LessDemand

MoreDemand

Public Demand for Safety Assurance

Society’s Safety Expectations – 201Continuously Advancing...
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Extent of Safety Effort

SEEK Too muc

→ innovativ

enhancemenfleet

→ Finite dol

spent on safgo elsewher

→ fatal acc

Establish appropriate balance in our regulatory approach 

Applying the Safety ContinuumSystem Safety

Too little rigor...

→ safety escapes→ fatal accidents increase

Achieve safety objectives while imposing the least burden on society.

+

-

Risk due safe

Total Risk

Risk of accidents due to inadequate safety program
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Challenges for Aviation Safe

• Societal expectations for safety• One size does not fit all• Increasing amounts and types of operationa• Pressures: economic, security, environment• Changing workforce demographics• Increase in “non-routine” operations• Understanding current operations• Changes in technology and operations• Where to put risk mitigation
Where to put risk mitigatio

Designer Error

Design Engineer

Envelope 

Protection

TCAS/

ACAS

Flight 

Director

P

F

Ad

Cat III

Autoland

Circli

Approa
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...But the biggest challeng

aviation safety is

Complacency
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Challenges for Aviation HumFactors

• Increase in knowledge and skills need• HF is much more than research• HF workforce – where will we get them• Integrating HF into every aspect of avi• Changing operator roles• Automation/autonomy
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Timeframe 2000s

Scope of Operation / Interrelationships - Pilot Knowledge and Skills Needed

1960s

Normal

Basic/ Contingenc

Normal

Advanced Normal

Advanced

Crew Coordination, Problem Solving, and Manual Handling Skills
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Vision

• Flexible, robust operations• Human effectiveness through:

– Human-centered design– Human-systems integration – range of vehicles and o– Increasing resilience– Managing complexity

• Effective aircraft-air traffic integration• Improved integration between ops and safety

maintenance and dispatch

• Improved risk assessment• Effective data analysis• Timely and ongoing sharing of lessons learn
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Research needed to support vision

• Automated systems & autonomy, including Information 

automation/EFBs

• Complexity• Human-system integrations• Resilience engineering, especially dealing with non-routine 

situations

• Human centered design – how?• Training• Monitoring• Flight Path Management• Human performance “envelope”• Risk/safety assessments – alternative approaches• New technology/operations• Event investigation and data analysis • Many others
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21
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Finding 1:

Pilot Mitigation of Safety and Oper

Risk

Pilots frequently mitigate safety and operational risthe aviation system is designed to rely on that miti• Adapting to changes in operational circumstanc• Managing operational threats• Mitigating or managing errors• Mitigating equipment limitations• Managing equipment malfunctions• Managing unexpected operational riskNote: Not comprehensive

22
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Flight Deck Automated Syste

• Automated systems have been successf

used for many years, and have contributesignificantly to improvements in safety, operational efficiency, and precise flight pmanagement.

• However, vulnerabilities exist in pilot inte

with automated systems

• Use of automated systems reduces work

during normal ops but adds complexity aworkload during demanding situations
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Old View New View

• Automation• Give the human operator 

what s/he does best, give the automation what it does best

• Automation causes 

degradation of basic skills

• Automation should be 

another “crewmember”

• Automation policy• More automation reduces 

risk

• Automated systems• Human-system inte

enable the human o

• Lack of practice ca

degradation of bas

• Automated systems 

to help the respons

• Flight path manage

policy (or equivalen

• More automation in

different risks
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Need Effective Synergy of theHuman/Automated Systems (from U

• Main benefits are to extend and comp

human performance, not provide a dirreplacement of humans

– Extend human reach: perception, action, speed, persi

size, scale, fatigue

– Permit delegation and reduction of cognitive load – if e

designed to do so

– Expand the adaptive capacity of the human operator (e.g

options, more flexibility)

– Synchronize activities of UAS, software, and human o

over wider scopes and ranges

– Provide operations with denied or degraded comms li
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HF-Related research needed to supthe vision

• Autonomy/automated systems, including Information 

automation/EFBs

• Complexity• Human-system integration• Resilience engineering, especially dealing with non-routine 

situations (including “unknown unknowns”)

• Human centered design – how?• Training methodologies• Monitoring• Developing and maintaining “basic” knowledge and skills• Human performance “envelope” including error• Risk/safety assessments – alternative approaches• New technology/operations• Organizational culture• Event investigation and data analysis • Many others
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Some common themes

• Integration• Effective automated systems/autonom• Complexity• Revolution in information amount, typ

reliability, access, location, ?

• Regulatory approvals• Dealing with changes
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Courtesy Safety Operating Systems