Economic Forecast: May 2023

22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.4 2022 2023 2024

Percent Change: Quarterly SAAR, Annual Q4/Q4

 Gross Domestic Product -1.6 -0.6 3.2 2.6 1.1 0.8 -1.2 -1.7 -0.5 1.2 1.9 2.2 0.9 -0.3 1.2

 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) 1.3 2.0 2.3 1.0 3.7 1.0 -1.4 -1.9 -1.6 0.8 1.6 1.8 1.7 0.3 0.6

 Residential Fixed Investment -3.1 -17.8 -27.1 -25.1 -4.2 -5.9 -9.1 -6.4 -1.0 4.7 7.3 9.6 -18.8 -6.4 5.1

 Business Fixed Investment 7.9 0.1 6.2 4.0 0.7 0.8 -3.2 -5.4 -4.4 -1.1 1.2 2.3 4.5 -1.8 -0.6

 Government Consumption & Investment -2.3 -1.6 3.7 3.8 4.7 0.5 1.7 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.9 1.1

Billions of Chained 2012$

 Net Exports -1480 -1421 -1260 -1230 -1227 -1238 -1219 -1164 -1112 -1091 -1097 -1119 -1348 -1212 -1105

 Change in Business Inventories 215 110 39 137 -2 12 6 -17 -11 -9 5 30 125 0 4

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 Consumer Price Index 8.0 8.6 8.3 7.1 5.8 4.3 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.8 3.1 3.0 7.1 3.0 3.0

 Core Consumer Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) 6.3 6.0 6.3 6.0 5.6 5.2 4.6 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.8 2.7 6.0 4.0 2.7

 PCE Chain Price Index 6.4 6.6 6.3 5.7 4.9 3.7 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.6 5.7 3.0 2.6

 Core PCE Chain Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) 5.3 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.1 3.7 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.5 4.8 3.7 2.5

Change: Quarterly Avg Mo. Chg, Thous., Annual Mil.

 Employment, Total Nonfarm 561 329 423 284 295 202 -129 -174 -114 -138 -36 0 4.8 0.6 -0.9

 Percent Change: Q4/Q4 3.4 0.7 -0.7

Percent: Quarterly Avg, Annual Avg

 Unemployment Rate 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.8 4.2 4.7 5.0 5.2 5.3 3.6 3.8 5.0

 Federal Funds Rate 0.1 0.8 2.2 3.7 4.5 5.0 5.1 5.0 4.5 3.9 3.4 2.8 1.7 4.9 3.7

1-Year Treasury Note Yield 1.0 2.2 3.4 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.0 3.5 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.8 4.5 3.1

10-Year Treasury Note Yield 1.9 2.9 3.1 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.0 3.4 3.3

May 10, 2023

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from April 28, 2023; all other forecasts are based on the date above.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects 

or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, including that the ongoing debt ceiling impasse will be resolved in a manner that avoids default, and are subject to change without notice. How this 

information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that 

the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. 

The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its 

management. 

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