Housing Forecast: April 2023

22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.4 2022 2023 2024

SAAR, Thous. Units

 Total Housing Starts 1,720 1,647 1,450 1,398 1,371 1,253 1,177 1,131 1,171 1,211 1,253 1,286 1,553 1,233 1,231

 Percent Change: YoY -3.0 -20.6 -0.2

 Single-Family (1 Unit) 1,187 1,086 905 849 820 768 758 770 811 846 868 888 1,008 779 853

 Percent Change: YoY -10.6 -22.7 9.5

 Multifamily (2+ Units) 533 561 545 549 550 485 419 361 360 366 385 398 545 454 377

 Percent Change: YoY 15.1 -16.8 -16.9

 Total Home Sales 6,759 5,975 5,356 4,794 4,969 4,881 4,751 4,762 4,861 4,968 5,082 5,224 5,671 4,841 5,034

 Percent Change: YoY -17.7 -14.6 4.0

 New Single-Family 776 609 580 598 642 636 617 622 627 631 633 635 641 629 631

 Percent Change: YoY -16.9 -1.9 0.4

 Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) 5,983 5,367 4,777 4,197 4,327 4,245 4,134 4,140 4,234 4,337 4,449 4,589 5,030 4,211 4,402

 Percent Change: YoY -17.8 -16.3 4.5

Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4

 Fannie Mae HPI 19.6 18.5 12.9 8.7 4.5 -0.1 -0.8 -1.2 -2.5 -2.6 -2.2 -2.2 8.7 -1.2 -2.2

Percent: Quarterly Avg, Annual Avg

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.8 5.2 5.6 6.7 6.4 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.3 6.0 5.3

NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units

 Single-Family Mortgage Originations 781 692 543 402 317 436 463 441 399 548 568 503 2,418 1,656 2,019

 Purchase 393 504 434 333 268 366 379 332 269 402 404 359 1,664 1,345 1,434

 Refinance 388 188 108 69 49 69 84 109 130 147 164 144 753 312 584

 Refinance Share (Percent) 50 27 20 17 16 16 18 25 33 27 29 29 31 19 29

April 10, 2023

Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from March 31, 2023; all other forecasts are based on the date above.

Note: All mortgage originations data are Fannie Mae estimates as there is no universal source for market-wide originations data.

Note: The Fannie Mae HPI forecast is updated on the first month of every quarter.

Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.

Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS®, Freddie Mac. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research

 --------------- 2023 --------------- --------------- 2024 ---------------

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or 

expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, 

analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. 

Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the 

views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management. 

 --------------- 2022 ---------------