### March 4, 2004

Analysis of MM5 Simu lations based on three PBL schemes over the eastern US for

August 6 to 16, 2002

Winston Hao, Mike Ku, and Gopal Sistla

NYS DEC- DAR

Albany, NY 12233

Introductio n: In a prior report 1 

### dated Decem ber 8, 2003, a comparison was

perform e d between m e teorological m easurem ents and the simulated MM5 fields for

August 6 to 16, 2002 based upon 3 approaches to th e PBL. In this report, we provide the

com p arison with TDL and CASTNet m easurem e n ts.

Purpose: The intent of this exercise was to investigate the response of three

PBL sche m e s and develop a recommendation for the use of a PBL m e thod for developing

m e teorological fields for the May through Se ptember of 2002, in support of air quality

modeling work.

Approach: In this study, Prof. Dalin Zhang of University of Maryland, applied

3 PBL schem e s for the August 6 to 16, 2002, a period in which the OTR experienced

high ozone as well as particulate levels. The th ree schem e s were (a ) m odifi ed Blackada r

[BL], (b) the Pleim

- Xiu schem e with the soil m o dule [PX], and (c) m odified Blackadar

with soil m odule [SSIB]. The sim u lated m e te orological fields were com p a r ed to the

m easure m ents from TDL (NW S ) and CASTNet.

Model setup: The MM5 model se tup is sim ilar to th e ear lie r exe r cise of

developing m e teorological fields for July 1997, with the first level at 10 m. The

projection f o r this exercise was that r ecomm ended by the R P Os, and has a spatial

resolution of 12 km (see Figure 1)

Analysis: The basic ap proach used is to com p are dom ain-wide averag ed

m easure m ents and pred ictions for surface te m p erature, wind speed and direction, and

where availa ble with hu m i dity. W h ile the CAST Net sites are m o re representative of rural

areas, the T D L are reflective of urban/s uburban settings. There are 47 CASTNet and

about 600 NWS sites in the TDL da ta set over the modeling dom a in.

TDL data and MM5 simulations:

Average w i nd speed and direction (see Figures 2a through 2c)

1 

### Hao, W ., Ku, M., and Sistla, G. (2002) ‘Pre lim inary analysis of MM5 simulations for

the August 6 to 17, 2002 – A status re port’, NYSDEC, Albany, NY 12233

1

### Overall, the 3 PBL schem e s provide good ag reem ent with the observed average wind

direc tion . In term s of wi nd speed:

BL: Under prediction of daytim e m a xim u m wind speed, but agre e m ent with nighttim e

low windspeed

P-X: System atic under pred iction during daytim e and over pred iction in th e nighttim e

SSIB: Under prediction during daytim e w ith phase lag, the predicted m a xim u m

occurring latter than the m easured maxim u m

Temperatu re (see Figures 3a through 3c)

BL: Good agreem ent throughout the episode days

P-X: Initial over prediction of tem p erature m i ni m u m, and under prediction of daytim e

ma x i mu m

SSIB: Over prediction of daytim e maxi m u m

Humidity (see Figures 4a through 4c)

BL: While the general trend is captured du ring the episode, there is poor agreem ent

between the observed and pred icted diurnal patterns, with the observation showing a

double peak versus one peak based on predictions.

P-X: The m odel yields the observed daily double peak, but with underprediction and a

phase lag.

CASTNet data and MM 5 simula tio ns:

Average w i nd speed and direction (see Figures 5a through 5c)

All 3 PBL approaches provide good agreem ent with the observed average wind direction.

In term s of wind speed:

BL: W i nd speed over prediction during the day tim e, a feature th at differs from the

TDL results, but good agreem ent with nighttim e m i ni m u m

P-X: W i nd speed over pred iction, for both day- and nig h ttim e hours

. SSIB: W i nd speed over prediction at the star t and end of the episode, and exhibiting a

phase-lag of 1 to 2 hours

Average Temperature (see Figures 6a through 6c)

BL: Overall goo d agreem ent

P-X: System atic under pred iction during daytim e and over pred iction in th e nighttim e

with phase lag

SSIB: Over prediction during the daytim e, but good agreem ent during nighttim e

Average Humidity

2

### There were no data to perform this com p ar ison, as m i xing ratio cannot be estim a ted due

to lack of station pressure.

Spatial d i str i bution of c o rrelation between TDL data and MM5 simulations

Wind Speed (see Figures 7a through 7c)

BL: The correlation levels are generally in the 0.7 or higher range over m o st portions

of the dom ai n, with lower values m a inly conf ined to the sou t h eastern and western parts

of the dom ai n.

P-X: The correlation levels are slightly lo wer compared to BL, with m o r e stations

exhibiting a correlation level of less than 0.6 in the Southeastern portion of the dom ain.

SSIB: The correlation le vels ar e sim ilar to P- X, but with increased num ber of stations

exhibiting correlation levels less than 0.6 over the dom ain

Temperatu re (see Figures 8a through 8c)

BL: The correlation levels are generally hi gher (>0.97) over the no rtheastern portions

of the dom ai n, with the rem a inder of the dom ai n exhibiting correlation levels in the range

of 0.94 to 0.96

P-X: Overall the corre lation levels a r e s l ightly lowe r than BL

SSIB: Sim ilar to P-X, with correlati on levels in the 0.95 throughout the dom ain

Humidity (see Figures 9a through 9c)

BL: The corre lation leve ls ov er the northeast are generally higher than the rest of the

dom a in, although m o st portions of the dom ain report correlation of 0.70 or higher

P-X: The correlation levels are com p ar able or slightly bette r than BLK

SSIB: The correlation levels are com p ar atively lower than the other two over the

northeastern portions of the dom ain

Discussion and conclusions

On an overall basis, it appear s that the BL scheme exhibits a better correspondence to the

m easured data than the other two schem e s. The e x ception being the poor capture of the

observed diurnal pattern of hum i dity in the c a se of the BL schem e . W h ile the P-X sch e m e

shows a better correspondence with the observe d diurnal pattern for hum idity, it f a ils to

perform well for wind speed and tem p erature. Further work is needed to improve the

perform a nce of these m e thods. An exam ination of other studies in which the P-X schem e

was applied suggests the predictive pe rform a nce is sim ilar to this study.

Other com p arisons of model to observed or m easured parameters such as cloud cover,

precipitation, and upper air soundings/profiler network are under exam ination to provide

a com p rehensive evaluation of the m e teorol ogical m odel. Also, the use of the m o del

sim u lated fields in air quality m odel and co m p arison to pollutant fields is also in

progress.

3

### Figure 2a M M 5 Simulat i on - U M D B L K & TD L - A ug 6 01Z t o A ug 17 00Z 2002

Obs e r v e d/P r e d ic te d Winds pe e d

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16m/s Obs W ndSpd Pr dW ndSpd

Bias W i n d s p eed

-1 -0. 5

0 0. 5

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16m/s Bi as W ndSpd

RM S E Winds pe e d

0 0. 5

1 1. 5

2 2. 5

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16m/s R M SEW ndSpd R M SESW ndSp R M SEU W ndSp

IOA Winds pe e d

0 0. 2 0. 4 0. 6 0. 8

1

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16 I O AW ndSpd

O b serv e d / Pred ict e d W i n d Direct io n

0 60 120 180 240 300 360

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16deg O b sW n d Dir Pr dW ndD i r

Bias W i n d Direct io n

-90 -60 -30

0 30 60 90

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16deg Bi as W ndD i r



### 4

### Figure 2b MM5 Simulation - UMD PX & TDL Aug 06 01Z to Aug 17 00Z 200 2

5

### Figure 2c M M 5 Simulat i on - U M D SSIB & TD L A ug 06 01Z t o A ug 17 00Z 2002

Obs e r v e d/P r e d ic te d Winds pe e d

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16m/s Obs W ndSpd Pr dW ndSpd

Bias W i n d s p eed

-1. 5

-1 -0. 5

0 0. 5

1

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16m/s Bi as W ndSpd

RM S E Winds pe e d

0 0. 5

1 1. 5

2 2. 5

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16m/s R M SEW ndSpd R M SESW ndSp R M SEU W ndSp

IOA Winds pe e d

0 0. 2 0. 4 0. 6 0. 8

1

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16 I O AW ndSpd

O b serv e d / Pred ict e d W i n d Direct io n

0 60 120 180 240 300 360

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16deg O b sW n d Dir Pr dW ndD i r

Bias W i n d Direct io n

-90 -60 -30

0 30 60 90

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16deg Bi as W ndD i r



### 6

### Figure 3a MM5 Simulation - UMD BL & TDL Aug 6 01Z to Aug 17 00Z 2002

7

### Figure 3b M M 5 Simulat i on - U M D PX & TD L A ug 06 01Z t o A ug 17 00Z 2002

O b serv e d / Pred ict e d T e mp erat u r e

285 287 289 291 293 295 297 299 301 303 305

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16K Obs T em p Pr dT em p

Bias T e mp erat u r e

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16K Bi as T e m p

RM SE T e mp erat u r e

0 0. 5

1 1. 5

2 2. 5

3 3. 5

4

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16K R M SET em p R M SEST em p R M SEU T e m p

IO A T e mp erat u r e

0 0. 1 0. 2 0. 3 0. 4 0. 5 0. 6 0. 7 0. 8 0. 9

1

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16 I O AT em p



### 8

### Figure 3c M M 5 Simulat i on - U M D SSIB & TD L A ug 06 01Z t o A ug 17 00Z 2002

O b serv e d / Pred ict e d T e mp erat u r e

285 287 289 291 293 295 297 299 301 303 305

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16K Obs T em p Pr dT em p

Bias T e mp erat u r e

-2 -1. 5

-1 -0. 5

0 0. 5

1 1. 5

2 2. 5

3 3. 5

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16K Bi as T e m p

RM SE T e mp erat u r e

0 0. 5

1 1. 5

2 2. 5

3 3. 5

4 4. 5

5

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16K R M SET em p R M SEST em p R M SEU T e m p

IO A T e mp erat u r e

0 0. 1 0. 2 0. 3 0. 4 0. 5 0. 6 0. 7 0. 8 0. 9

1

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16 I O AT em p



### 9

### Figure 4a M M 5 Simulat i on - U M D B L & TD L A ug 6 01Z t o A ug 17 00Z 2002

P r e d ic te d/Obs e r v e d Humidity

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16g/kg ObsH um Pr dH um

Bias Humidity

-3 -2. 5

-2 -1. 5

-1 -0. 5

0 0. 5

1 1. 5

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16g/kg Bi as H u m

RM SE Humidity

0 0. 5

1 1. 5

2 2. 5

3 3. 5

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16g/kg R M SEH um R M SESH um RM S E UHu m

IO A Humidity

0 0. 1 0. 2 0. 3 0. 4 0. 5 0. 6 0. 7 0. 8 0. 9

1

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16 I O AH um



### 10

### Fi gure 4b M M 5 Simul a t i on

- UM D PX A ug 06 01Z t o A ug 17 00Z

Pr edicted/O b s e r v ed H u midit y

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16 g/

kg Ob s H u m P r dHum

Bia s Hum i d i t y

-1. 5

-1 -0. 5

0 0. 5

1 1. 5

2

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16 g/

kg Bi a s H u m

RM SE Hum i dit y

0 0. 5

1 1. 5

2 2. 5

3 3. 5

4

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16 g/

kg R M SEH u m R M SESH u m RM S E UHu m

IO A Humidit y

0 0. 1 0. 2 0. 3 0. 4 0. 5 0. 6 0. 7 0. 8 0. 9

1

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16 IOA H u m



### 11

### Figure 4c M M 5 Simulat i on - U M D SSIB & TD L A ug 06 01Z t o A ug 17 00Z 2002

P r e d ic te d/Obs e r v e d Humidity

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16g/kg ObsH um Pr dH um

Bias Humidity

-3 -2. 5

-2 -1. 5

-1 -0. 5

0 0. 5

1 1. 5

2

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16g/kg Bi as H u m

RM SE Humidity

0 0. 5

1 1. 5

2 2. 5

3 3. 5

4 4. 5

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16g/kg R M SEH um R M SESH um RM S E UHu m

IO A Humidity

0 0. 1 0. 2 0. 3 0. 4 0. 5 0. 6 0. 7 0. 8 0. 9

1

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16 I O AH um



### 12

### Figure 5a M M 5 U M D

- B L & C A STN e t A ug 6 01Z t o A ug 17 00Z 2002

Obs e r v e d/P r e d ic te d Winds pe e d

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16m/s Obs W ndSpd Pr dW ndSpd

Bias W i n d s p eed

-0. 5

0 0. 5

1 1. 5

2

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16m/s Bi as W ndSpd

RM S E Winds pe e d

0 0. 5

1 1. 5

2 2. 5

3

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16m/s R M SEW ndSpd R M SESW ndSp R M SEU W ndSp

IOA Winds pe e d

0 0. 2 0. 4 0. 6 0. 8

1

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16 I O AW ndSpd

O b serv e d / Pred ict e d W i n d Direct io n

0 60 120 180 240 300 360

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16deg O b sW n d Dir Pr dW ndD i r

Bias W i n d Direct io n

-90 -60 -30

0 30 60 90

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16deg Bi as W ndD i r



### 13

### Figure 5b M M 5

- U M D PX & C A STN e t A ug 06 01Z t o A ug 17 00Z 2002

Obs e r v e d/P r e d ic te d Winds pe e d

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16m/s Obs W ndSpd Pr dW ndSpd

Bias W i n d s p eed

-0. 5

0 0. 5

1 1. 5

2

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16m/s Bi as W ndSpd

RM S E Winds pe e d

0 0. 5

1 1. 5

2 2. 5

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16m/s R M SEW ndSpd R M SESW ndSp R M SEU W ndSp

IOA Winds pe e d

0 0. 2 0. 4 0. 6 0. 8

1

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16 I O AW ndSpd

O b serv e d / Pred ict e d W i n d Direct io n

0 60 120 180 240 300 360

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16deg O b sW n d Dir Pr dW ndD i r

Bias W i n d Direct io n

-90 -60 -30

0 30 60 90

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16deg Bi as W ndD i r



### 14

### Figure 5c M M 5

- U M D SSIB & C A STN e t A ug 06 01Z t o A ug 17 00Z 2002

Obs e r v e d/P r e d ic te d Winds pe e d

0 2 4 6

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16m/s Obs W ndSpd Pr dW ndSpd

Bias W i n d s p eed

-1. 5

-1 -0. 5

0 0. 5

1 1. 5

2

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16m/s Bi as W ndSpd

RM S E Winds pe e d

0 0. 5

1 1. 5

2 2. 5

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16m/s R M SEW ndSpd R M SESW ndSp R M SEU W ndSp

IOA Winds pe e d

0 0. 2 0. 4 0. 6 0. 8

1

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16 I O AW ndSpd

O b serv e d / Pred ict e d W i n d Direct io n

0 60 120 180 240 300 360

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16deg O b sW n d Dir Pr dW ndD i r

Bias W i n d Direct io n

-90 -60 -30

0 30 60 90

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16deg Bi as W ndD i r



### 15

### Figure 6a M M 5

- U M D B L & C A STN e t A ug 6 01Z t o A ug 17 00Z 2002

O b serv e d / Pred ict e d T e mp erat u r e

285 287 289 291 293 295 297 299 301 303 305

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16K Obs T em p Pr dT em p

Bias T e mp erat u r e

-2 -1. 5

-1 -0. 5

0 0. 5

1 1. 5

2 2. 5

3

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16K Bi as T e m p

RM SE T e mp erat u r e

0 0. 5

1 1. 5

2 2. 5

3 3. 5

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16K R M SET em p R M SEST em p R M SEU T e m p

IO A T e mp erat u r e

0 0. 1 0. 2 0. 3 0. 4 0. 5 0. 6 0. 7 0. 8 0. 9

1

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16 I O AT em p



### 16

### Figure 6b M M 5

- U M D PX & C A STN e t A ug 06 01Z t o A ug 17 00Z 2002

O b serv e d / Pred ict e d T e mp erat u r e

285 287 289 291 293 295 297 299 301 303 305

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16K Obs T em p Pr dT em p

Bias T e mp erat u r e

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16K Bi as T e m p

RM SE T e mp erat u r e

0 0. 5

1 1. 5

2 2. 5

3 3. 5

4 4. 5

5

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16K R M SET em p R M SEST em p R M SEU T e m p

IO A T e mp erat u r e

0 0. 1 0. 2 0. 3 0. 4 0. 5 0. 6 0. 7 0. 8 0. 9

1

8/ 6 8/ 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8/ 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8/ 16 I O AT em p



### 17

### F i g u r e 6c M M 5 - U M D S S I B & C A

S T N e t A u g 06 01Z t o A u g 17 00Z 2002

O b se r v e d / P r e d i ct e d Tem p er a t ur e

28 5 28 7 28 9 29 1 29 3 29 5 29 7 29 9 30 1 30 3 30 5

8/ 6 8/ 7 8 / 8 8/ 9 8/ 10 8 / 11 8 / 12 8/ 1 3 8/ 14 8 / 15 8/ 16K Ob s T e m p P r dT e m p



### B i as Tem p erat ur e

-1

. 5

-1 -0

. 5

0 0. 5

1 1. 5

2 2. 5

3 3. 5

8/

6 8 / 7 8/ 8 8/ 9 8 / 10 8 / 11 8/ 12 8/ 1 3 8/ 14 8 / 15 8/ 16K Bi a s T e m p



### R M S E T e m p er at ur e

0 0. 5

1 1. 5

2 2. 5

3 3. 5

4

8/

6 8 / 7 8/ 8 8 / 9 8/ 1 0 8 / 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8 / 16K R M SET e m p R M SEST e m p R M SEU T e m p



### IO

A

T e m p e r a t u r e

0 0. 1 0. 2 0. 3 0. 4 0. 5 0. 6 0. 7 0. 8 0. 9

1

8/ 6 8 / 7 8/ 8 8 / 9 8/ 1 0 8 / 11 8/ 12 8/ 13 8/ 14 8/ 15 8 / 16 IO

A T e m p



### 18

### F i g u re 7a Spatial Correla tion – W i nd speed – BL & TD L

19

### F i g u re 7b Spatial Corr elation – W i nd Speed – P- X & TD L

20

### F i g u re 7c Spatial Correl a tion – W i nd Speed SSI B & TD L

21

### F i g u r e 8a Spa tia l Cor r e l a ti on – Temperatur e – BL & TD L

22

### 23 F i g u r e 8b Spa tia l Cor r e l a tio n – Tem p eratur e – PX & TD L

### F i g u r e 8c Spa tia l Cor r e l a ti on – Temperatur e SS I B & TD L

24

### F i g u r e 9a Spa tia l Cor r e l a tion - Humidit y BL & TD L

25

### F i g u r e 9b Spa tia l Cor r e l ation – Humidit y PX & TD L

26

### F i g u r e 9c Spa tia l Cor r e l a tion – Humidit y SS I B & TD L

27