Table 4 - purchased power costs in the ES Model and ES report

Column #: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Row #

1

2 ES prices (2016 $, p. 28) ES prices (nominal)

3 Year Low Medium High Low Medium High

Row # case case case case case case

4 NPV in 2012 $, to 2036

5 20-year NPV for each unit

6

7 2016 $40.16 $40.16 $40.16 $40.16 $40.16 $40.16

8 2017 $40.16 $40.16 $40.89 $41.36 $41.36 $42.12

9 2018 $40.16 $40.16 $40.89 $42.61 $42.61 $43.38

10 2019 $40.16 $40.93 $41.62 $43.88 $44.73 $45.48

11 2020 $40.93 $41.71 $42.35 $46.07 $46.94 $47.67

12 2021 $41.71 $42.48 $43.08 $48.35 $49.25 $49.94

13 2022 $41.71 $43.25 $43.81 $49.80 $51.64 $52.31

14 2023 $42.51 $44.80 $44.80 $52.28 $55.10 $55.10

15 2024 $42.51 $45.57 $45.57 $53.85 $57.73 $57.73

16 2025 $44.11 $46.34 $47.04 $57.55 $60.46 $61.38

17 2026 $44.92 $47.11 $47.77 $60.37 $63.31 $64.20

18 2027 $44.92 $47.89 $48.51 $62.18 $66.29 $67.15

19 2028 $44.92 $48.66 $49.24 $64.05 $69.38 $70.20

20 2029 $44.92 $48.66 $49.98 $65.97 $71.46 $73.40

21 2030 $45.72 $49.43 $49.98 $69.16 $74.77 $75.60

22 2031 $45.72 $49.43 $50.71 $71.23 $77.01 $79.00

23 2032 $45.72 $50.20 $51.45 $73.37 $80.56 $82.56

24 2033 $46.52 $50.20 $52.18 $76.89 $82.97 $86.25

25 2034 $46.52 $50.20 $52.18 $79.20 $85.46 $88.83

26 2035 $47.32 $50.98 $51.45 $82.98 $89.39 $90.22

27 2036 $47.74 $51.62 $52.11 $86.22 $93.23 $94.12

28 2037 $48.16 $52.28 $52.78 $89.59 $97.26 $98.19

29 2038 $48.58 $52.94 $53.45 $93.08 $101.44 $102.42

* Replacement energy requirements based on NGS unit retirement dates at the end of 2016, 2017, and 2018, per ES, p. 16.
8 9 10 11 12 13

Dollar cost for market purchases using

Gwh at unescalated ES prices as nominal prices

Sensitivity to market Low + $1/Mwh

$1/Mwh in 2016 price* Low Medium High Sensitivity

with ES low case

escalation $5,420.0 $5,698.4 $5,787.5 $5,555.5

($/Mwh) $5,568 $5,859 $5,949 $5,707

$41.16 0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

$42.40 5651 $226.93 $226.93 $231.05 $232.60

$43.67 11301 $453.86 $453.86 $462.11 $465.20

$44.98 16952 $680.78 $693.84 $705.53 $697.80

$47.22 16952 $693.84 $707.06 $717.91 $711.18

$49.56 16952 $707.06 $720.11 $730.28 $724.74

$51.05 16952 $707.06 $733.16 $742.66 $724.74

$53.59 16952 $720.62 $759.44 $759.44 $738.64

$55.20 16952 $720.62 $772.49 $772.49 $738.64

$58.99 16952 $747.74 $785.55 $797.41 $766.44

$61.88 16952 $761.47 $798.60 $809.79 $780.51

$63.73 16952 $761.47 $811.82 $822.33 $780.51

$65.65 16952 $761.47 $824.87 $834.71 $780.51

$67.62 16952 $761.47 $824.87 $847.25 $780.51

$70.88 16952 $775.04 $837.93 $847.25 $794.41

$73.01 16952 $775.04 $837.93 $859.62 $794.41

$75.20 16952 $775.04 $850.98 $872.17 $794.41

$78.81 16952 $788.60 $850.98 $884.54 $808.31

$81.18 16952 $788.60 $850.98 $884.54 $808.31

$85.05 16952 $802.16 $864.20 $872.17 $822.21

$88.38 16952 $809.28 $875.05 $883.36 $829.51

$91.83 11301 $544.27 $590.83 $596.48 $557.87

$95.41 5651 $274.51 $299.14 $302.02 $281.37

16, 2017, and 2018, per ES, p. 16.
14 15 16 17 18 19

Dollar cost for market purchases using Discount rate: 7% (ES, p. 21)

escalated prices as nominal prices NGS capacity factor: 86% (ES, p. 32)

Low + $1/Mwh Inflation rate 3% (ES, pp. 6, 22)

Low Medium High Sensitivity

Using escalated prices with inflation:

$7,217.0 $7,618 $7,741 $7,397.5 Percent increase, low to medium: 5.55%

$7,494.2 $7,918.9 $8,045.0 $7,681.5 Percent increase, low to high: 7.26%

Percent increase, sensitivity case: 2.50%

$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

$233.74 $233.74 $237.98 $239.58 Using 2016 prices with no inflation:

$481.50 $481.50 $490.25 $493.53 Percent increase, low to medium: 5.14%

$743.91 $758.17 $770.96 $762.51 Percent increase, low to high: 6.78%

$780.92 $795.80 $808.01 $800.44 Percent increase, sensitivity case: 2.50%

$819.67 $834.81 $846.60 $840.17

$844.27 $875.44 $886.77 $865.37

$886.27 $934.02 $934.02 $908.43

$912.86 $978.57 $978.57 $935.68

$975.64 $1,024.96 $1,040.44 $1,000.03

$1,023.36 $1,073.25 $1,088.29 $1,048.94

$1,054.06 $1,123.75 $1,138.30 $1,080.41

$1,085.68 $1,176.07 $1,190.09 $1,112.82

$1,118.25 $1,211.35 $1,244.22 $1,146.21

$1,172.31 $1,267.44 $1,281.54 $1,201.62

$1,207.48 $1,305.46 $1,339.27 $1,237.67

$1,243.70 $1,365.57 $1,399.58 $1,274.80

$1,303.43 $1,406.54 $1,462.02 $1,336.02

$1,342.53 $1,448.74 $1,505.88 $1,376.10

$1,406.59 $1,515.38 $1,529.35 $1,441.75

$1,461.65 $1,580.44 $1,595.44 $1,498.19

$1,012.49 $1,099.11 $1,109.62 $1,037.81

$525.98 $573.19 $578.71 $539.13