Calculating Oklahoma’s Proposed Sta

• Proposed goals are based on a consistent national formula, calculated 

and regional specific information. 

• The result of the equation is the state goal (for OK, the state’s ultimate 2030 goal under the propo

• Each state goal is a rate – a statewide number for the future carbon in

covered existing fossil-fuel-fired power plants in a state.

• Encompasses the dynamic variables that ultimately determine how much carb

emitted by fossil fuel power plants.

• Accommodates the fact that CO2 emissions from fossil fuel-fired power plants 

by how efficiently they operate and by how much they operate. 

• The state goal rate is calculated to account for the mix of power sourc

state and the application of the “building blocks” that make up the beemission reduction.

• EPA Region 6 has developed a “Calculations Walkthrough” document and corr

spreadsheet to illustrate the process for calculating Oklahoma’s proposed goaequation.

• Form of goal: States can use either a rate-based or mass-based goal.
• The numerator is the sum of CO2 emissions at covered fossil fue

power plants in that state .

• The denominator is electricity generation in the state, factoring i

megawatt hours from fossil fuel power plants plus other types of generation like renewables and nuclear, as well as megawatt hosavings from energy efficiency in the state.

• More specifically -- this includes covered fossil sources, existing an

renewable energy (but excluding existing hydro), 6% of the nuclear generation, and EE accounted for as zero emitting MWh. 

• No individual fossil-fired unit has to meet any of these goals. 

State CO2 emissions from covered fossil fuel fired power plants (lbs)

State electricity generation from covered fossil plants + RE + nuclearar&UC + EE (MWh)

Bf

Details on Calculated State Goals
State Goals – Why They Are Different?

• State goals are unique to each state factoring in the amount of reductions that ca

through the 4 building blocks:

• Efficiency improvements at existing coal plants• Substituting generation from coal/oil/gas steam fired boilers with generation from 

gas-fired combined cycle units

• Substituting generation from existing fossil-fuel-fired generation with renewable g• Substituting generation from existing fossil-fuel-fired generation with energy effici

• Key factors that influence an individual state goal include:

• The ratio of coal to existing natural gas combined cycle units

• Magnitude of state RPS’s within region• Energy demand (which impacts the potential for reductions from energy efficiency

• Because the key factors that influence individual state goals are different for every state

goal (and reduction percentage) is different.

• The percentage reduction in emission rate implied by the 2012 actual rate (adjus

the targets in other years is not the same as a required percentage reduction in m

• Increases in EE and RE can be accompanied by varying decreases in mass reductions

• Overall, the 2012 rate to 2030 State goal comparison suggest a 33% reduction between 

emission rate and the state goals, but this is achieved via a 17% reduction in actual emi

same time period.
Supporting documents used in the state goal c

• Goal Computation Technical Support Document (T

• Provides information that supports the EPA’s determinat

emission rate goals under the Clean Power Plan Propose

• Includes:

• BSER Factors Informing State Emission Rate Goals• Data Used• Example of State Goal Calculation and Discussion• Appendices

• Technical Support Document: Goal Computation (PDF)
• GHG Abatement Measures TSD 

• Describes EPA’s evaluation of all adequately demonstrate

greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement measures. 

• While evaluating each measure, the EPA considered its te

feasibility, applicability and use, application level appropBest System of Emission Reduction (BSER), and cost effecassociated with reducing GHG emissions at electric gene

• Technical Support Document: GHG Abatement Measures 

Supporting documents used in the state goal c
• Projecting EGU CO2 Emission Performance in State Plans 

• Discusses:

• Possible analytic approaches for translating from a rate-based CO2 emis

performance goal to a mass-based goal, and projecting the CO2 emissio

that will be achieved through a state plan. 

• Both modeling and non-modeling approaches, such as:

• electricity sector capacity expansion and dispatch planning models, • dispatch simulation models, and • growth tools that base projections on historical data and algorithms. 

• Possible approaches for developing inputs that are used for emission p

applied considerations for different types of state plans.

• Topics addressed include:

• Analytic approaches for projecting CO2 emissions from affected EGUs

• The concept and suggested methodology for translating from a rate-ba

performance goal to a mass-based CO2 emission performance goal

• Projecting EGU CO2 emission performance under a state plan• Applied considerations for projecting EGU CO2 emission performance u

types of state plans

• Process considerations for conducting EGU CO2 emission projections fo

• Technical Support Document: Projecting EGU CO2 Emission Per

State Plans (PDF)

Supporting documents used in the state goal c
Questions regarding calculations? 

Terry Johnson

Johnson.Terry@epa.gov

(214) 665-2154

&

Clovis Steib

Steib.Clovis@epa.gov

(214) 665-7566