Calculating Oklahoma’s Proposed State Goal•Proposed goals are based on a consistent national formula, calculated with stateand regional specific information.•The result of the equation is the state goal**(for OK, the state’s ultimate 2030 goal under the p roposed rule is 895 lbs/MWh)** .•Each state goal is a rate – a statewide number for the future carbon intensity ofcovered existing fossil-fuel-fired power plants ina state.•Encompasses the dynamic variables that ultimately determine how much carbon pollution isemitted by fossil fuel power plants.•Accommodates the fact that CO2emissions from fossil fuel-fired power plants are influencedby how efficiently they operate and by how much they operate.•The state goal rate is calculated to account for the mix of power sources in eachstate and the application of the “building blocks”that make up the best system ofemission reduction.•EPA Region 6 has developed a “Calculations Walkthrough” document and correspondingspreadsheet to illustrate the process for calculating Oklahoma’s proposed goal using theequation.•Form of goal: States can use either a rate-based or mass-based goal.12•The numerator is the sum of CO2emissions at covered fossil fuel firedpower plants in that state .•The denominator is electricity generation in the state,factoring inmegawatt hours from fossil fuel power plants plus othertypes of powergeneration like renewables and nuclear, as well as megawatt hoursavings from energy efficiency in the state.•More specifically -- this includes covered fossil sources, existing and newrenewable energy (but excluding existing hydro), 6%of the nuclear fleet’sgeneration, and EE accounted for as zero emitting MWh.•No individual fossil-fired unit has to meet any ofthese goals.State CO2emissions from covered fossil fuel fired power plants (lbs)State electricity generation from covered fossil plants + RE + nuclearar&UC+ EE (MWh)Basic formulafor state goalDetails on Calculated State GoalsState Goals – Why They Are Different?•State goals are unique to each state factoring in the amount of reductions that can be achievedthrough the 4 building blocks:•Efficiency improvements at existing coal plants•Substituting generation from coal/oil/gas steam fired boilers with generation from existing naturalgas-fired combined cycle units•Substituting generation from existing fossil-fuel-fired generation with renewable generation•Substituting generation from existing fossil-fuel-fired generation with energy efficiency•Key factors that influence an individual state goalinclude:•The ratio of coal to existing natural gas combinedcycle units•Magnitude of state RPS’s within region•Energy demand (which impacts the potential for reductions from energy efficiency)•Because the key factors that influence individual state goals are different for every state, each state’sgoal (and reduction percentage) is different.•The percentage reduction in emission rate implied by the 2012 actual rate (adjusted for RE) andthe targets in other years is not the same as a required percentage reduction in mass emissions•Increases in EE and RE can be accompanied by varying decreases in mass reductions•Overall, the 2012 rate to 2030 State goal comparison suggest a 33% reduction between the adjustedemission rate and the state goals, but this is achieved via a 17% reduction in actual emissions over thatsame time period.3Supporting documents used in the state goal calculations•Goal Computation Technical Support Document (TSD)•Provides information that supports the EPA’s determination of stateemission rate goals under the Clean Power Plan Proposed Rule•Includes:•BSER Factors Informing State Emission Rate Goals•Data Used•Example of State Goal Calculation and Discussion•Appendices•Technical Support Document: Goal Computation (PDF)4•GHG Abatement Measures TSD•Describes EPA’s evaluation of all adequately demonstratedgreenhouse gas (GHG) abatement measures.•While evaluating each measure, the EPA considered its technicalfeasibility, applicability and use, application level appropriate for theBest System of Emission Reduction (BSER), and costeffectivenessassociated with reducing GHG emissions at electricgenerating units.•Technical Support Document: GHG Abatement Measures(PDF)5Supporting documents used in the state goal calculations•Projecting EGU CO2 Emission Performance in State Plans TSD•Discusses:•Possible analytic approaches for translating from arate-based CO2emissionperformance goal to a mass-based goal, and projecting the CO2emission performancethat will be achieved through a state plan.•Both modeling and non-modeling approaches, such as:•electricity sector capacity expansion and dispatchplanning models,•dispatch simulation models, and•growth tools that base projections on historical data and algorithms.•Possible approaches for developing inputs that areused for emission projections andapplied considerations for different types of stateplans.•Topics addressed include:•Analytic approaches for projecting CO2emissions from affected EGUs•The concept and suggested methodology for translating from a rate-based CO2emissionperformance goal to a mass-based CO2emission performance goal•Projecting EGU CO2emission performance under a state plan•Applied considerations for projecting EGU CO2emission performance under differenttypes of state plans•Process considerations for conducting EGU CO2emission projections for state plans•Technical Support Document: Projecting EGU CO2 Emission Performance inState Plans (PDF)6Supporting documents used in the state goal calculationsQuestions regarding calculations?Terry JohnsonJohnson.Terry@epa.gov(214) 665-2154&Clovis SteibSteib.Clovis@epa.gov(214) 665-75667