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#           The use of historical data and global climate models to assess historical and future surface water and groundwater availability in the Trinity River Basin in Texas      

      May 11, 2023    

This paper describes the results of a study that was done by the USGS to assess recent (2017) water availability, forecast long-term trends in water availability, assess changes in water availability, and forecast future water availability in the Trinity River Basin in Texas. The Trinity River Basin surface water model and Trinity River alluvium aquifer (TRAA) groundwater model were created to evaluate future conditions under different global climate models (GCM). The results of this study show minimal overall changes in water availability for both surface water and groundwater. Trend analyses using historical data (1900–2017) indicated an increase of annual precipitation on the watersheds that drain into the reservoirs in Regional Water Planning Group C. However, the Trinity River Basin surface water model GCM ensemble mean annual precipitation indicates a downward trend, resulting in a downward trend in surface runoff. Additionally, the GCM ensemble mean for the Trinity River Basin surface water model and the TRAA groundwater model both indicate a downward trend in recharge while the TRAA model GCM ensemble mean indicates an upward trend in the amount of groundwater leaving the aquifer to rivers and streams resulting in an upward trend of cumulative storage change.

## Citation Information

## Related Content

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May 11, 2023

####                 MODFLOW-NWT model used to assess historical and future trends in groundwater availability in the Trinity River alluvium aquifer, Texas              

Oklahoma-Texas Water Science Center

March 30, 2023

####                 Hydrologic simulations using projected climate data as input to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) for the Trinity River Basin Integrated Water Availability Assessment, Texas, 2023              

Oklahoma-Texas Water Science Center

#### Molly J Milmo

##### Hydrologist

Oklahoma-Texas Water Science Center

mshivers@usgs.gov

682-316-5043

#### Jeremy McDowell

##### Hydrologist

Oklahoma-Texas Water Science Center

jmcdowell@usgs.gov

682-316-5031

#### Glenn R. Harwell

##### Hydrologist

Oklahoma-Texas Water Science Center

gharwell@usgs.gov

817-253-3899

## Related Content

May 11, 2023

####                 MODFLOW-NWT model used to assess historical and future trends in groundwater availability in the Trinity River alluvium aquifer, Texas              

Oklahoma-Texas Water Science Center

March 30, 2023

####                 Hydrologic simulations using projected climate data as input to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) for the Trinity River Basin Integrated Water Availability Assessment, Texas, 2023              

Oklahoma-Texas Water Science Center

#### Molly J Milmo

##### Hydrologist

Oklahoma-Texas Water Science Center

mshivers@usgs.gov

682-316-5043

#### Jeremy McDowell

##### Hydrologist

Oklahoma-Texas Water Science Center

jmcdowell@usgs.gov

682-316-5031

#### Glenn R. Harwell

##### Hydrologist

Oklahoma-Texas Water Science Center

gharwell@usgs.gov

817-253-3899

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#### Oklahoma-Texas Water Science Center – Austin, TX Office

1505 Ferguson LaneAustin, TX78754United States

(512) 927-3500

(512) 927-3590 

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