8B-i APPENDIX 8B. USER INSTRUCTIONS FO R LIFE

- CYCLE COST AND PAYBA CK
PERIOD SPREADSHEET

TABLE OF CONTENTS

8B.1 INTRODUCTION

................................................................................................... 8B

- 1 8B.2 MODEL CONVENTIONS

...................................................................................... 8B

- 1 8B.3 INDIVIDUAL WORKSHEET S .............................................................................. 8B

- 1 8B.4 UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS INSTRUCTIONS

.................................................. 8B

- 28B-1 APPENDIX 8 B . USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR LIFE

- CYCLE COST AND PAYBACK PERIOD SPREADSHEET

8B .1 INTRODUCTION

The results obtained for the life

- cycle cost (LCC) and payback period (PBP) analyses can be examined and reproduced using the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet available on the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building Technologies website at: h ttp://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/fluorescent_lamp_ballast s.html

. There is one spreadsheet covering all combinations of fluorescent ballast system product classes. The spreadsheet posted on the DOE website represents the latest version that has been tested with both Microsoft Excel 200 3 and 20 07 . The LCC and PBP spreadsheet performs calculations to forecast the change in LCC from an energy conservation standard and the PBP that such a change implies. These concepts are explained in the main body of preliminary technical support document (TSD) chapter 8.

To operate the spreadsheet

, a user simply describes the ana lysis mode, consumer subgroup, life e vent, and economic growth scenarios desired for examin ation. A ny market and energy price behaviour can be set by adjust ing the named ranges throughout the LCC/PBP spreadsheet model. Therefore, strictly speaking

, there are no “instructions” necessary to operate the spreadsheet. Rather, in this appendix

, DOE provides a description of the model in case users wish to examine DOE’s assumptions and methods or t o test alternative assumptions.

8B.2 MODEL CONVENTIONS

Both of the model’s primary outputs, LCC savings and PBP, are calculated on the LCC worksheet by using base case and standards case inputs ( e.g. , the LCC savings for a particular fluorescent ballast system is calculated by subtracting the LCC associated with that unit from the LCC associated with a unit at CSL 0 of the same product class ).

In general, logic flows fr om data sources and assumption ( assembled on the right- most worksheets ) toward outputs ( produced on the left

- most worksheets ). Further data carried from one sheet and reproduced in another are generally presented at the top of a worksheet.

8B .3 INDIVIDUAL WORKSHEET S

The LCC/PBP spreadsheet or workbook consists of the following worksheets described below.

Instructions This worksheet contains notes from the model developers for each other and f or spreadsheet users.

LCC &PBP This worksheet presents LCC savings and PBP results by fluorescent ballast type to produce the results that DOE provides in the NOPR8B-2 notice and TSD chapter 8

. This worksheet also condenses the information from the Lifetime Cos ts worksheet, for user ease of use.

Lifetime Costs This wo rksheet compiles data from several other worksheets to calculate the actual life cycle costs of all fluorescent ballast s . This worksheet also contains assumptions for labor costs, some product price s, and mark- up values.

Discount Rate This worksheet derives discount rates for commercial, industrial, and residential sector fluorescent ballast s.
Operating Hours This worksheet provides the data and calculations used to develop operating hours for the co mmercial, industrial, and residential sectors.

Electricity and Tax Rates This worksheet contains data and calculations for electricity prices over time, and sales tax rates. Economic growth scenario information is also contained in this worksheet.

Information Hub This worksheet contains the engineering summary data, and many important quantities that pertain to each product class and representative product.

Output to NIA This worksheet contains a few calculated values for easy output to the NIA mod el.

8B .4 UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS INSTRUCTIONS

The following instructions assume users run the uncertainty analysis in Microsoft Excel 2007. Crystal Ball results may be saved by using the options in Create Report and Extract Data functions i n the C rystal Ball ribbon.

To run a Crystal Ball simulation, do the following:

To produce Monte Carlo results using Crystal Ball, select Monte Carlo Analysis Mode from the drop

- down menu in the LCC&PBP worksheet. To make basic changes in the run sequence, including altering the number of trials, select Run Preferences from the Run menu. After each simulation run, the user needs to select Reset (also from the Run menu) before Run can be selected again. Once it has completed its run sequence, Crystal Ball will produce a series of distributions. Using the options i n the Analyze menu, it is possible to obtain further statistical information. The time taken to complete a run sequence can be reduced by selecting `Suppress chart windows’ in the Run Preferences box. Ten thousand is t he default number of runs for this analysis.

A step

- by

- step summary of the procedure for running a distribution analysis is outlined below:

1. Find the Crystal Ball ribbon (at the top of the screen)

2. Click on Run Preferences in the Run menu8B-3 3. Select from the following choices within the tabs in the Run Preferences box :

a. Number of trials (10,000 is suggested)

b. Initial Seed Value

c. Monte Carlo

d. Latin Hypercube

e. Other options are available

4. To run the simulation, follow the sequence below (on the Crystal Ball toolba r):

a. Ensure Monte Carlo Analysis Mode is selected from the drop

- down menu in the LCC&PBP worksheet

b. Select Reset from the Run menu if you have run previous simulations

c. Select Start from the Run menu

5. Wait until the program provides a message that the simulation is completed. Depending on computer speed, this function can take a few minu tes (typically, approximately 3 0 minutes on an Intel Xeon CPU machine for 10,000 runs).

Crystal Ball Results

1. After the simulation has finished, click on the Crystal Ball ribbon to view the options available for data analysis

. 2. Several of the variables of interest, including LCC, LCC savings, and PBP are defined as Forecast cells. The frequency charts display the results of the simulations or trials performed by Crystal Bal l. Click on any chart to bring it into view. The charts show the low and high endpoints of the forecasts.

3. To calculate the probability that LCC savings will occur, either type 0 in the box by the right arrow, or move the arrow key with the cursor to 0 on the scale. The value in the Certainty box shows the likelihood that the LCC savings will occur. To calculate the certainty of PBP as below a certain number of years, choose that value as the high endpoint.

4. To generate a printout report, select Create Repor t from the Analyze menu. For further information on Crystal Ball outputs, please refer to Understanding the Forecast Chart in the Crystal Ball manual. Crystal Ball results may also be saved to a separate Excel spreadsheet by using the Extract Data function under the Analyze menu i n the C rystal Ball ribbon

.