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#           The USGS 2023 Conterminous U.S. time‐independent earthquake rupture forecast      

      December 22, 2023    

We present the 2023 U.S. Geological Survey time‐independent earthquake rupture forecast for the conterminous United States, which gives authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time‐averaged frequency of potentially damaging earthquakes throughout the region. In addition to updating virtually all model components, a major focus has been to provide a better representation of epistemic uncertainties. For example, we have improved the representation of multifault ruptures, both in terms of allowing more and less fault connectivity than in the previous models, and in sweeping over a broader range of viable models. An unprecedented level of diagnostic information has been provided for assessing the model, and the development was overseen by a 19‐member participatory review panel. Although we believe the new model embodies significant improvements and represents the best available science, we also discuss potential model limitations, including the applicability of logic tree branch weights with respect different types of hazard and risk metrics. Future improvements are also discussed, with deformation model enhancements being particularly worthy of pursuit, as well as better representation of sampling errors in the gridded seismicity components. We also plan to add time‐dependent components, and assess implications with a wider range of hazard and risk metrics.

## Citation Information

## Related Content

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#### Ned Field

##### Research Geophysicist

Earthquake Hazards Program

field@usgs.gov

303-273-8469

#### Alexandra (Alex) Hatem

##### Research Geologist

Earthquake Hazards Program

ahatem@usgs.gov

303-273-8474

#### Peter M Powers, PhD

##### Research Geophysicist

Earthquake Hazards Program

pmpowers@usgs.gov

303-273-8467

#### Fred F Pollitz

##### Supervisory Research Geophysicist

Earthquake Hazards Program

fpollitz@usgs.gov

650-329-4821

#### Andrea Llenos

##### Research Geophysicist

Earthquake Hazards Program

allenos@usgs.gov

650-439-2562

#### Yuehua Zeng

##### Research Geophysicist

Earthquake Hazards Program

zeng@usgs.gov

303-273-8561

#### Devin McPhillips, PhD

##### Research Geologist

Earthquake Hazards Program

dmcphillips@usgs.gov

#### Jessica Thompson Jobe

##### Research Geologist

Earthquake Hazards Program

jjobe@usgs.gov

303-273-8474

#### Allison M Shumway

##### Research Geophysicist

Earthquake Hazards Program

ashumway@usgs.gov

#### Andrew Michael

##### Research Geophysicist

Earthquake Hazards Program

ajmichael@usgs.gov

650-439-2777

#### Mark Petersen

##### Research Geophysicist

Earthquake Hazards Program

mpetersen@usgs.gov

720-357-4751

#### Christopher B DuRoss

##### Research Geologist

Earthquake Hazards Program

cduross@usgs.gov

303-273-8544

#### Rich Briggs

##### Research Geologist

Earthquake Hazards Program

rbriggs@usgs.gov

303-273-8465

#### Morgan T Page

##### Research Geophysicist

Earthquake Hazards Program

mpage@usgs.gov

626-583-6804

#### Julie A Herrick

##### Geophysicist

Earthquake Hazards Program

jherrick@usgs.gov

## Related Content

#### Ned Field

##### Research Geophysicist

Earthquake Hazards Program

field@usgs.gov

303-273-8469

#### Alexandra (Alex) Hatem

##### Research Geologist

Earthquake Hazards Program

ahatem@usgs.gov

303-273-8474

#### Peter M Powers, PhD

##### Research Geophysicist

Earthquake Hazards Program

pmpowers@usgs.gov

303-273-8467

#### Fred F Pollitz

##### Supervisory Research Geophysicist

Earthquake Hazards Program

fpollitz@usgs.gov

650-329-4821

#### Andrea Llenos

##### Research Geophysicist

Earthquake Hazards Program

allenos@usgs.gov

650-439-2562

#### Yuehua Zeng

##### Research Geophysicist

Earthquake Hazards Program

zeng@usgs.gov

303-273-8561

#### Devin McPhillips, PhD

##### Research Geologist

Earthquake Hazards Program

dmcphillips@usgs.gov

#### Jessica Thompson Jobe

##### Research Geologist

Earthquake Hazards Program

jjobe@usgs.gov

303-273-8474

#### Allison M Shumway

##### Research Geophysicist

Earthquake Hazards Program

ashumway@usgs.gov

#### Andrew Michael

##### Research Geophysicist

Earthquake Hazards Program

ajmichael@usgs.gov

650-439-2777

#### Mark Petersen

##### Research Geophysicist

Earthquake Hazards Program

mpetersen@usgs.gov

720-357-4751

#### Christopher B DuRoss

##### Research Geologist

Earthquake Hazards Program

cduross@usgs.gov

303-273-8544

#### Rich Briggs

##### Research Geologist

Earthquake Hazards Program

rbriggs@usgs.gov

303-273-8465

#### Morgan T Page

##### Research Geophysicist

Earthquake Hazards Program

mpage@usgs.gov

626-583-6804

#### Julie A Herrick

##### Geophysicist

Earthquake Hazards Program

jherrick@usgs.gov

### Contact

####               Earthquake Science Center          

350 N. Akron RoadMoffett Field, CA94035United States

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