Table 4 - purchased power costs in the ES Model and ES report

Column #: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Row # 1 2 ES prices (2016 $, p. 28) ES prices (nominal) 3 Year Low MediumHigh Low MediumHigh Row # case case case case case case

4 NPV in 2012 $, to 2036 5 20-year NPV for each unit 6 7 2016 $40.16 $40.16 $40.16 $40.16 $40.16 $40.16 8 2017 $40.16 $40.16 $40.89 $41.36 $41.36 $42.12 9 2018 $40.16 $40.16 $40.89 $42.61 $42.61 $43.38 10 2019 $40.16 $40.93 $41.62 $43.88 $44.73 $45.48 11 2020 $40.93 $41.71 $42.35 $46.07 $46.94 $47.67 12 2021 $41.71 $42.48 $43.08 $48.35 $49.25 $49.94 13 2022 $41.71 $43.25 $43.81 $49.80 $51.64 $52.31 14 2023 $42.51 $44.80 $44.80 $52.28 $55.10 $55.10 15 2024 $42.51 $45.57 $45.57 $53.85 $57.73 $57.73 16 2025 $44.11 $46.34 $47.04 $57.55 $60.46 $61.38 17 2026 $44.92 $47.11 $47.77 $60.37 $63.31 $64.20 18 2027 $44.92 $47.89 $48.51 $62.18 $66.29 $67.15 19 2028 $44.92 $48.66 $49.24 $64.05 $69.38 $70.20 20 2029 $44.92 $48.66 $49.98 $65.97 $71.46 $73.40 21 2030 $45.72 $49.43 $49.98 $69.16 $74.77 $75.60 22 2031 $45.72 $49.43 $50.71 $71.23 $77.01 $79.00 23 2032 $45.72 $50.20 $51.45 $73.37 $80.56 $82.56 24 2033 $46.52 $50.20 $52.18 $76.89 $82.97 $86.25 25 2034 $46.52 $50.20 $52.18 $79.20 $85.46 $88.83 26 2035 $47.32 $50.98 $51.45 $82.98 $89.39 $90.22 27 2036 $47.74 $51.62 $52.11 $86.22 $93.23 $94.12 28 2037 $48.16 $52.28 $52.78 $89.59 $97.26 $98.19 29 2038 $48.58 $52.94 $53.45 $93.08 $101.44$102.42

* Replacement energy requirements based on NGS unit retirement dates at the end of 2016, 2017, and 2018, per ES, p. 16.8 9 10 11 12 13

Dollar cost for market purchases using Gwh at unescalated ES prices as nominal prices Sensitivity to market Low + $1/Mwh $1/Mwh in 2016 price* Low MediumHigh Sensitivity with ES low case escalation $5,420.0$5,698.4$5,787.5$5,555.5 ($/Mwh) $5,568 $5,859 $5,949 $5,707

$41.16 0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $42.40 5651 $226.93 $226.93 $231.05 $232.60 $43.67 11301 $453.86 $453.86 $462.11 $465.20 $44.98 16952 $680.78 $693.84$705.53 $697.80 $47.22 16952 $693.84$707.06 $717.91 $711.18 $49.56 16952 $707.06 $720.11 $730.28 $724.74 $51.05 16952 $707.06 $733.16 $742.66 $724.74 $53.59 16952 $720.62 $759.44$759.44$738.64 $55.20 16952 $720.62 $772.49 $772.49 $738.64 $58.99 16952 $747.74$785.55 $797.41 $766.44 $61.88 16952 $761.47 $798.60 $809.79 $780.51 $63.73 16952 $761.47 $811.82 $822.33 $780.51 $65.65 16952 $761.47 $824.87 $834.71 $780.51 $67.62 16952 $761.47 $824.87 $847.25 $780.51 $70.88 16952 $775.04$837.93 $847.25 $794.41 $73.01 16952 $775.04$837.93 $859.62 $794.41 $75.20 16952 $775.04$850.98 $872.17 $794.41 $78.81 16952 $788.60 $850.98 $884.54$808.31 $81.18 16952 $788.60 $850.98 $884.54$808.31 $85.05 16952 $802.16 $864.20 $872.17 $822.21 $88.38 16952 $809.28 $875.05 $883.36 $829.51 $91.83 11301 $544.27 $590.83 $596.48 $557.87 $95.41 5651 $274.51 $299.14$302.02 $281.37

* Replacement energy requirements based on NGS unit retirement dates at the end of 2016, 2017, and 2018, per ES, p. 16.14 15 16 17 18 19

Dollar cost for market purchases using Discount rate: 7%(ES, p. 21) escalated prices as nominal prices NGS capacity factor: 86%(ES, p. 32) Low + $1/Mwh Inflation rate 3%(ES, pp. 6, 22) Low MediumHigh Sensitivity Using escalated prices with inflation: $7,217.0 $7,618 $7,741 $7,397.5 Percent increase, low to medium: 5.55% $7,494.2$7,918.9 $8,045.0 $7,681.5 Percent increase, low to high: 7.26% Percent increase, sensitivity case: 2.50% $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $233.74$233.74 $237.98 $239.58 Using 2016 prices with no inflation: $481.50 $481.50 $490.25 $493.53 Percent increase, low to medium: 5.14% $743.91 $758.17 $770.96 $762.51 Percent increase, low to high: 6.78% $780.92 $795.80 $808.01 $800.44 Percent increase, sensitivity case: 2.50% $819.67 $834.81 $846.60 $840.17 $844.27 $875.44 $886.77 $865.37 $886.27 $934.02 $934.02 $908.43 $912.86 $978.57 $978.57 $935.68 $975.64$1,024.96$1,040.44 $1,000.03 $1,023.36$1,073.25$1,088.29 $1,048.94 $1,054.06$1,123.75$1,138.30 $1,080.41 $1,085.68$1,176.07$1,190.09 $1,112.82 $1,118.25$1,211.35$1,244.22 $1,146.21 $1,172.31$1,267.44$1,281.54 $1,201.62 $1,207.48$1,305.46$1,339.27 $1,237.67 $1,243.70$1,365.57$1,399.58 $1,274.80 $1,303.43$1,406.54$1,462.02 $1,336.02 $1,342.53$1,448.74$1,505.88 $1,376.10 $1,406.59$1,515.38$1,529.35 $1,441.75 $1,461.65$1,580.44$1,595.44 $1,498.19 $1,012.49$1,099.11$1,109.62 $1,037.81 $525.98 $573.19 $578.71 $539.13