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Appendix D: Socioeconomic Impact Analysis Report December 18, 2008 

APPENDIX D 

SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS REPORT 

FOR REVISED PROPOSED 

AMENDMENTS TO RULE 4607 

DECEMBER 18, 2008 
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY UNIFIED AIR POLLUTION CONTROL DISTRICT

Appendix D: Socioeconomic Impact Analysis Report December 18, 2008 

Applied Development Economics, Inc. D-2 Final Draft Staff Report with Appendices 

 For Revised Proposed Amendments to Rule 4607 

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DRAFT RULE 4607 GRAPHIC ARTS: 

SOCIOECONOMIC ANALYSIS 

SEPTEMBER 22, 2008 

Prepared for 

San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District 

Prepared by 

Applied Development Economics 

100 Pringle Avenue, Suite 560  Walnut Creek, California 94596  (925) 934-8712 

2151 River Plaza Drive, Suite 150  Sacramento, CA 95833  (916) 923-1562 

www.adeusa.com
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY UNIFIED AIR POLLUTION CONTROL DISTRICT

Appendix D: Socioeconomic Impact Analysis Report December 18, 2008 

Applied Development Economics, Inc. D-4 Final Draft Staff Report with Appendices 

 For Revised Proposed Amendments to Rule 4607 

CONTENTS 

1. Description of the Proposed Rule......................................................................... 6

2. Impact of Proposed Rule Amendments............................................................... 7

Methodology ................................................................................................... 7

Regional Demographic Trends ..................................................................... 8

Regional Economic Trends........................................................................... 9

Description of Affected Industries............................................................... 11

3. Socioeconomic Impact Analysis ............................................................................. 16
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Appendix D: Socioeconomic Impact Analysis Report December 18, 2008 

Applied Development Economics, Inc. D-5 Final Draft Staff Report with Appendices 

 For Revised Proposed Amendments to Rule 4607 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

The San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District (“District”) seeks to amend 

Rule 4607 (Graphic Arts) to implement the emission control requirements stated in the 2007 

Ozone Plan, as well as the Control Technique Guidelines (CTG) promulgated by the EPA. 

Many of the changes under consideration are contained in graphic arts rules or permit 

conditions in other air districts in California, meaning that, if amended, Rule 4607 would 

meet RACT requirements in accordance with CAA 182(b)(2) and 182(f) and BACM 

requirements in accordance with Federal Register 8/18/1994. The socioeconomic analysis is 

based on the July 1, 2008 version of the draft amendments to Rule 4607. 

Proposed amendments to Rule 4607 potentially affects a narrow set of industries, namely 

those industries within printing (NAICS Code 32311). The report tracks economic trends 

for the printing industry and its sub-industries over the ten-year period from 1997 to 2007. 

While employment grew annually by eight percent between 1997 and 2002, the analysis 

shows that this industry has contracted since 2002 in terms of number of businesses and 

employment. One area of growth was in flexographic printing (NAICS 323112), which 

increased in terms of employment between 2002 and 2007 by over 20 percent a year. The 

proposed amendments to Rule 4607 for the most part affects establishments in lithographic 

and flexographic printing industries. 

In addition to employment trends, the analysis also tracks trends with respect to revenues 

and profits. As the analysis shows, the printing industry in the region is a $416 million 

industry, with commercial lithographic printing (NAICS 323110) as the largest segment at 

$263 million. 

With respect to how the proposed rule will affect printers in the region, early indications are 

that if Rule 4607 is amended, affected printing industries (namely flexographic and 

lithographic printers) would experience between 3.6 and six percent increase in cost of ink. 

These printing industries generate respectively an estimated $11.3 million and $2.5 million in 

net profits. 

As a result of the proposed amendments, the ten flexographic printing establishments will 

experience an increase in aggregate costs ranging from $53,200 to $88,600, which amount to 

2.2 percent and 3.6 percent of net profits. These impacts are below the threshold of 

significance employed for the purposes of evaluating impacts. As a result, flexographic 

printers are not significantly impacted by the proposed rule. Likewise for lithographic 

printers, whose aggregate costs amount to approximately one percent of net profits. The 

analysis also demonstrates that small businesses are not disproportionately impacted by 

proposed amendments to Rule 4607. 
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY UNIFIED AIR POLLUTION CONTROL DISTRICT

Appendix D: Socioeconomic Impact Analysis Report December 18, 2008 

Applied Development Economics, Inc. D-6 Final Draft Staff Report with Appendices 

 For Revised Proposed Amendments to Rule 4607 

1. DESCRIPTION OF THE PROPOSED RULE 

The San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District (“District”) seeks to amend 

Rule 4607 (Graphic Arts) to implement the emission control requirements stated in the 2007 

Ozone Plan, as well as the Control Technique Guidelines (CTG) promulgated by the EPA. 

Many of the changes under consideration are contained in graphic arts rules or permit 

conditions in other air districts in California, meaning that, if amended, Rule 4607 would 

meet RACT requirements in accordance with CAA 182(b)(2) and 182(f) and BACM 

requirements in accordance with Federal Register 8/18/1994. 

Amended Rule 4607 will specify the Best Available Retrofit Control Technology. As used in 

this project, “Best Available Retrofit Control Technology” means an emission limitation that 

is based on the maximum degree of reduction achievable, taking into account environmental, 

energy, and economic impacts by each class or category of source (CH&SC 40406). 

At this time, District staff is recommending an exemption, except for recordkeeping, for 

digital printers and digital printing operations, as defined in Section 3.0 of Rule 4607. This 

exemption is similar to that proposed by the Bay Area Air Quality Management District. The 

South Coast Air Quality Management District does not address digital printing in their rule. 

It has been determined that the number of commercial digital printing operations in the 

SJVAB is not great, therefore, VOC emissions from digital printing operations are not 

considered large. Digital printing is a growing industry, however, and staff does intend to 

further study digital printing technologies and controls and will revisit possible digital 

printing controls in the future. 
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Appendix D: Socioeconomic Impact Analysis Report December 18, 2008 

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 For Revised Proposed Amendments to Rule 4607 

2. IMPACT OF PROPOSED RULE AMENDMENTS 

This section of the socioeconomic analysis describes demographic and economic trends in 

the San Joaquin Valley region. Following an overview of the socioeconomic analysis 

methodology, the first part of this section compares the region against California and 

provides a context for understanding demographic and economic changes that have 

occurred within the Central Valley between 1997 and 2007. After an overview of regional 

industries, we focus on industries impacted by the proposed amendments to Rule 4607. For 

the purposes of this report, the San Joaquin Valley region consists of Fresno, Kern (parts), 

Kings, Madera, Merced, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Tulare Counties. 

FIGURE 1 

MAP OF SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY UNIFIED AIR POLLUTION CONTROL DISTRICT

Source: ADE, Inc. 

METHODOLOGY 

The socioeconomic analysis of the proposed amendments to Rule 4607 involves the use of 

information provided directly by District, as well as secondary data used to describe the 

industries affected by the proposed rule amendments. Based on information provided by 

District staff, ADE determined that the impacts would affect businesses in a narrow set of 

related industries, namely printing. With this information we profiled impacted businesses 
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Applied Development Economics, Inc. D-8 Final Draft Staff Report with Appendices 

 For Revised Proposed Amendments to Rule 4607 

and industries, analyzing data on the number of jobs, sales levels, the typical profit ratios and 

other economic indicators for businesses in the region. 

With data from the US Economic Census and other sources such as US IRS, California 

Employment Development Department, and County Business Patterns, ADE was able to 

estimate revenues and profit ratios for industries impacted by the proposed rule 

amendments. In calculating aggregate revenues generated by regional businesses in affected 

industries, ADE first estimated annual revenue based upon available data, particularly the US 

Economic Census. ADE calculated ratios of profit per dollar of sales for the businesses and 

industries on which the analysis focused. ADE also used a regional IMPLAN input-output 

model to calculate certain inputs such as printing ink used by industries subject to the 

proposed amendments to Rule 4607. 

The result of the socioeconomic analysis shows what proportion of profit the compliance 

costs represent. Based on a given threshold of significance, ADE discusses in the report 

whether the affected businesses and industries are likely to reduce jobs as a means of 

recouping the cost of compliance or as a result of reducing business operations. Where 

applicable, ADE also examines whether affected industries can pass costs to consumers. To 

the extent that such job losses appear likely and significant, the indirect multiplier effects of 

the job losses area estimated using a regional IMPLAN input-output model. 

When analyzing the socioeconomic impacts of proposed new rules and amendments, ADE 

works closely within the parameters of accepted methodologies discussed in a 1995 

California Air Resources Board report called “Development of a Methodology to Assess the 

Economic Impact Required by SB513/AB969” (by Peter Berck, PhD, UC Berkeley 

Department of Agricultural and Resources Economics, Contract No. 93-314, August, 1995). 

The author of this report reviewed a methodology to assess the impact that California 

Environmental Protection Agency proposed regulations would have on the ability of 

California businesses to compete. The California Air Resources Board (ARB) has 

incorporated the methodologies described in this report in its own assessment of 

socioeconomic impacts of rules generated by ARB. One methodology relates to determining 

a level above or below which a rule and its associated costs is deemed to have significant 

impacts. When analyzing the degree to which its rules are significant or insignificant, ARB 

employs a threshold of significance that ADE follows. Berck reviewed the threshold in his 

analysis and wrote, “The Air Resources Board’s (ARB) use of a 10 percent change in [Return 

on Equity] ROE (i.e. a change in ROE from 10 percent to a ROE of 9 percent) as a 

threshold for a finding of no significant, adverse impact on either competitiveness or jobs 

seems reasonable or even conservative.” 

REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS 
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Applied Development Economics, Inc. D-9 Final Draft Staff Report with Appendices 

 For Revised Proposed Amendments to Rule 4607 

The San Joaquin Valley Region experienced significant growth from 1997 to 2007. Between 

1997 and 2002, the eight county region increased by 1.8 percent annually, from 3.1 million in 

1997 to almost 3.5 million in 2002. From 2002 to 2007, the population grew to 3.9 million 

for an annual increase of approximately 2.5 percent. Over the same period, California grew 

at a slower rate of 1.4 percent per year. Kern County, Madera, Merced, and San Joaquin 

Counties grew at rates faster than the regional average between 2002-2007. 

TABLE 1 

POPULATION TRENDS: SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY REGION AND CALIFORNIA, 1997-2007 

 ------------------- Year -------------- ------- Change ------- - Annual % Change - 

 1997 2002 2007 97-02 02-07 97-02 02-07 

California 32,670,019 35,088,671 37,662,518 2,418,652 2,573,847 1.4% 1.4% 

Region 3,147,776 3,445,018 3,900,965 297,242 455,947 1.8% 2.5% 

 Fresno 774,208 827,310 917,515 53,102 90,205 1.3% 2.1% 

 Kern 629,227 688,875 801,648 59,648 112,773 1.8% 3.1% 

 Kings 116,727 133,553 151,381 16,826 17,828 2.7% 2.5% 

 Madera 111,892 130,373 148,721 18,481 18,348 3.1% 2.7% 

 Merced 200,169 219,554 251,510 19,385 31,956 1.9% 2.8% 

 San Joaquin 537,669 596,907 679,687 59,238 82,780 2.1% 2.6% 

 Stanislaus 421,946 469,969 521,497 48,023 51,528 2.2% 2.1% 

 Tulare 355,938 378,477 429,006 22,539 50,529 1.2% 2.5% 

Source: ADE, Inc., based on California Department of Finance 

Regional Economic Trends 

Economic development practitioners and planners have traditionally divided economies into 

two broad industrial categories—the economic base and local support industries. Economic 

base industries are the drivers of local and regional economies in that these industries draw 

income into a local economy by selling products outside of the local economy, much like the 

export industries of a national economy. Accrued earnings then circulate throughout the 

local area in the form of wages and salaries; investments; purchases of fixed assets, goods, 

and services; and generation of more jobs and wealth. 

The economic base is typically comprised of industries within the manufacturing, mineralsresource extraction, and agricultural sectors. There are also the “local support industries” 

such as retail or service sectors, the progress of which is a function of the economic base 

and demographic changes, and more so the latter than the former. As population increases 

in a given area, demand for services–such as realtors, teachers, and healthcare–increases, as 

does demand for basic retail items like groceries, gas for commuting, or clothing at the local 

apparel shops. 

Agriculture is the economic base of the San Joaquin Valley region by virtue of the amount of 

goods this sector produces and exports throughout the nation and the globe. Twelve percent 

of all workers in the region are employed by industries within agriculture, as Table 2 shows. 

However, in 1997 slightly almost 16 percent of all workers worked in agriculture. By 2002, 
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Applied Development Economics, Inc. D-10 Final Draft Staff Report with Appendices 

 For Revised Proposed Amendments to Rule 4607 

this ratio stood at 13 percent. In fact, over the five-year period between 2002 and 2007, 

employment in agriculture barely increased, growing by 0.2 percent per year. 

Between 2002 and 2007, local support industries gained in prominence within the San 

Joaquin Valley region. Service-rendering industries employed the most workers as a 

proportion of total employment in the region. As Table 2 shows, service-rendering industries 

comprise 62 percent of all jobs, including public sector positions. In other words, 955,079 

jobs out of a total of 1,530,284 jobs are in service-rendering industries. Excluding the public 

sector, service-rendering jobs account for 45 percent of all jobs in 2007. In 2002, servicerendering industries (excluding the public sector) represented 44 percent of all jobs, 

indicating that the transition toward a services economy was in place as early as the mid to 

late 1990s with the significant increase in the number of people during that time. 

Increases in employment in service-rendering industries are consistent with regional 

population growth. In the region, local support industries of construction, education and 

health, and financial activities increased annually by 3.9 percent, 3.2 percent, and 1.5 percent 

respectively between 2002 and 2007. 

Close examination of Table 2 shows that the region experienced respectable growth in 

manufacturing, as employment in this sector grew annually by 1.2 percent between 2002 and 

2007. In comparison, manufacturing jobs declined annually by 0.7 percent between 1997 and 

2002. Another regional bright spot was transportation\utilities, as jobs increased by a healthy 

clip of 3.2 percent per year between 2002 and 2007.

‘This section is blank on purpose”
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Applied Development Economics, Inc. D-11 Final Draft Staff Report with Appendices 

 For Revised Proposed Amendments to Rule 4607 

TABLE 2 

EMPLOYMENT PROFILE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY REGION, 1997-2007 

Industry 1997 2002 2007 

% of Total 

Private & 

Public 

Employment 

in 2007: 

Region 

% of Total 

Private & 

Public 

Employment 

in 2007: 

California 

Annual 

Percent 

Chg, 

97-02 

Annual 

Percent 

Chg, 

02-07 

Total, all private industries 1,121,188 1,159,334 1,273,164 0.7% 1.9%

 Goods-Producing 581,277 540,028 575,205 -1.5% 1.3% 

 Agriculture 207,186 181,777 183,335 12.0% 2.0% -2.6% 0.2% 

 Natural Resources and Mining 217,333 184,435 197,798 12.9% 2.6% -3.2% 1.4% 

 Construction 43,999 64,992 78,704 5.1% 5.7% 8.1% 3.9% 

 Manufacturing 112,759 108,824 115,368 7.5% 9.3% -0.7% 1.2% 

 Service-Providing 539,911 619,306 697,959 2.8% 2.4% 

 Trade, Transportation, & Utilities 189,894 209,335 237,788 2.0% 2.6% 

 Retail 116,765 131,458 145,700 9.5% 10.8% 2.4% 2.1% 

 Wholesale 33,993 37,443 44,832 2.9% 4.6% 2.0% 3.7% 

 Transport\Warehouse\Utilities 39,136 40,434 47,256 3.1% 3.1% 0.7% 3.2% 

 Information 14,485 14,682 15,225 1.0% 3.0% 0.3% 0.7% 

 Financial Activities 40,287 45,345 48,778 3.2% 5.8% 2.4% 1.5% 

 Professional\Business Services 81,314 98,203 108,007 7.1% 14.4% 3.8% 1.9% 

 Education and Health Services 96,624 115,521 135,197 8.8% 10.4% 3.6% 3.2% 

 Leisure and Hospitality 79,462 89,736 101,415 6.6% 9.9% 2.5% 2.5% 

 Other Services 37,845 46,484 51,549 3.4% 4.9% 4.2% 2.1% 

Federal Government 26,013 29,186 27,784 1.8% 1.6% 2.3% -1.0% 

State Government 23,886 29,000 30,945 2.0% 2.9% 4.0% 1.3% 

Local Government 155,836 185,774 198,391 13.0% 11.0% 3.6% 1.3% 

Total, all public\private industries 1,326,923 1,403,294 1,530,284 100.0% 102.0% 1.1% 1.7%

Source: ADE, Inc. from data supplied by the Labor Market Information Division of the California Employment Development Department 

DESCRIPTION OF AFFECTED INDUSTRIES 

Proposed amendments to Rule 4607 potentially affects a narrow set of industries, namely 

those industries within printing (NAICS Code 32311). Table 3 below identifies economic 

trends for the printing industry and its sub-industries over the ten-year period from 1997 to 

2007. While employment grew annually by eight percent between 1997 and 2002, the table 

shows that this industry has contracted since 2002 in terms of number of businesses and 

employment, going from 215 establishments to 168 establishments. Data come from the 

California Employment Development Department (EDD), and are for businesses whose 

primary economic activity is any one of the ten printing sub-industries identified below in 

Table 3. The table also shows that, in inflation-adjusted terms, workers’ respective average 

pay also went down for the most part. One area of growth was in flexographic printing 

(NAICS 323112), which increased in terms of employment by over 20 percent a year. The 

proposed amendments to Rule 4607 for the most part affects establishments in lithographic 

and flexographic printing industries. 
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Appendix D: Socioeconomic Impact Analysis Report December 18, 2008 

Applied Development Economics, Inc. D-12 Final Draft Staff 

 For Revised Proposed A

Table 3 

San Joaquin Valley Region: Printing Industry Trends, 1997-2007 

 -------------- 1997 ----------- -------------- 2002 ---------- -------------- 2007 ---------- Annual Percent  Estab Emp Avg Pay Estab Emp Avg Pay Estab Emp Avg Pay Estab Emp 

32311 Printing 167 2,358 $34,277 215 3,499 $36,376 168 2,997 $35,909 5.2% 8.2% 

323110 Lithographic Printing 74 1,739 $37,024 66 1,988 $37,255 47 1,752 $37,068 -2.3% 2.7% 

323111 Gravure Printing 1 10 $34,639 1 10 $34,465 323112 Flexographic Printing 10 133 $39,080 10 390 $38,885 323113 Commercial Screen Printing 13 166 $28,594 29 262 $28,486 27 221 $26,983 17.4% 9.6% 323114 Quick Printing 74 371 $23,717 68 376 $26,964 50 269 $28,162 -1.7% 0.2% 323115 Digital Printing 5 51 $39,080 5 51 $40,817 323116 Manifold Business Forms 8 371 $46,527 5 51 $48,595 323117 Books Printing 3 31 $34,639 3 31 $36,179 323118 Blankbook, Binders, etc. 1 10 $34,639 1 10 $36,179 323119 Other Commercial Printing 6 82 $35,298 24 267 $35,191 19 211 $35,723 32.0% 26.6% 

Source: ADE, Inc., based on California Employment Development Department 
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Appendix D: Socioeconomic Impact Analysis Report December 18, 2008 

Applied Development Economics, Inc. D-13 Final Draft Staff Report with Appendices 

 For Revised Proposed Amendments to Rule 4607 

Similar to Table 3 above, Table 4 below further discusses the economic context within 

which District officials are contemplating amendments to the Graphic Arts regulation. Table 

4 includes estimates on revenues generated by existing printing businesses. Estimates are 

based on data from the 2002 Economic Census, particularly for the Fresno-Madera 

Metropolitan Statistical Area, which, in conjunction with state-level data, were then adjusted 

in order to estimate regional trends. In addition to generating sub-industry specific revenue 

per worker ratios for purposes of estimating aggregate revenues, the consultant adjusted 

these ratios for small-sized businesses using a combination of the US Census’ County 

Business Patterns and Non-Employer Statistics. That same source included data on cost of 

materials. The consultant utilized the IMPLAN input-output model to determine what share 

of materials is printing ink. The table also includes estimates on impacted establishments’ 

respective net profits, the rate of which comes from the US Internal Revenue Service for the 

five-period between 2000 and 2005. 

As Table 4 shows, the printing industry in the region is a $416 million industry, with 

commercial lithographic printing (NAICS 323110) as the largest segment at $263 million. 

As Table 5 shows, currently, there are 67 establishments in the region that are subject to the 

rule right now. These establishments are in the District’s permits database that tracks 

businesses that utilize equipment subject to regional air quality regulation. Of the 67 

establishments, 42 are not in the printing industries. As indicated later, the proposed 

amendments will not affect the 42 non-printing businesses, as the rule will primarily affect 

flexographic and lithographic printers. 
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Applied Development Economics, Inc. D-14 Final Draft Staff 

 For Revised Proposed A

Table 4 

San Joaquin Valley Region: Printing Industry Economic Profile, 2007 

 --------- Materials --------- 

Total 

Establishments Employment 

Estimated 

Revenues 

Cost of 

Materials 

Ink 

Materials 

(8%) 

32311 Printing 168 2,997 $415,591,945 $127,348,363 $10,187,869 

323110 Lithographic Printing 47 1,752 $262,848,883 $76,529,098 $6,122,328 323111 Gravure Printing 1 10 $1,580,539 $440,048 $35,204 323112 Flexographic Printing 10 390 $57,203,209 $18,460,000 $1,476,800 323113 Commercial Screen Printing 27 221 $22,184,221 $6,721,333 $537,707 323114 Quick Printing 50 269 $26,132,486 $9,608,667 $768,693 323115 Digital Printing 5 51 $6,571,701 $1,863,244 $149,060 323116 Manifold Business Forms 5 51 $10,549,662 $6,721,333 $537,707 323117 Books Printing 3 31 $3,360,187 $1,513,974 $121,118 323118 Blankbook, Binders 1 10 $901,122 $94,667 $7,573 323119 Other Commercial Printing 19 211 $24,259,935 $5,396,000 $431,680 

Source: ADE, Inc., based on California EDD, US Economic Census 2002, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, IMPLAN Input-Output Model 

2.0, and US Internal Revenue Service 

Table 5 

Non-Printing Industries Using Equipment Subject to Graphic Arts Rule 

Industry Description Establishments UnitsWood Container and Pallet Manufacturing 1 1 Wood Furniture Manufacturing 3 19Paper (except Newsprint) Mills 1 13Sutup Paperboard Box Manufacturing 1 2Corrugated and Solid Fiber Box Manufacturing 8 53Nonflolding Sanitary Food Container Manufacturing 1 1Folding Paperboard Box Manufacturing 1 3Plastics, Foil, and Coated Paper Bag Manufacturing 1 4Corrugated and Solid Fiber Box Manufacturing 1 2Newspaper Publishers 6 9

Asphalt Shingle and Coating Materials Manufacturing 1 1All Other Plastics Product Manufacturing 1 1

Metal Can Manufacturing 1 1

Air Purification Equipment Manufacturing 1 2

Petroleum Bulk Stations and Terminals 1 6Family Clothing Stores 1 1Graphic Design Services 2 8Correctional Institutions 3 14Others 7 23
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 For Revised Proposed A

Total, industries other than printing 42 164ALL (including printing industries) 67 267
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Applied Development Economics, Inc. D-16 Final Draft Staff Report with Appendices 

 For Revised Proposed Amendments to Rule 4607 

3. SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS 

This section of the report examines the socioeconomic impact analysis of proposed 

amendments to Rule 4607. District staff indicates that the rule will primarily affect 

flexographic and lithographic printers. Early indications are that if Rule 4607 is amended, 

these printing industries would experience between 3.6 and six percent increase in cost of 

ink. 

Table 6 

Cost Increases Stemming From Adoption of 

Graphic Arts Rule 

 

Flexographic\Lithographic 

Printers 

3.6% - 6.0% Increase In InkRelated Costs 

 

Source: San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District 

Table 7 below compares cost increases borne by flexographic and lithographic printers 

against their respective net profit estimates. As indicated above in Table 5, flexographic and 

lithographic printers in the region generate an estimated $11.3 million and $2.5 million in net 

profits. As a result of the proposed amendments, the ten flexographic printing 

establishments will experience an increase in aggregate costs ranging from $53,200 to 

$88,600, which amount to 2.2 percent and 3.6 percent of net profits. These impacts are 

below the threshold of significance employed for the purposes of evaluating impacts. As a 

result, flexographic printers are not significantly impacted by the proposed rule. Likewise 

for lithographic printers, whose aggregate costs amount to approximately one percent of net 

profits. Table 8 below also demonstrates that small businesses are not disproportionately 

impacted by proposed amendments to Rule 4607.
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Appendix D: Socioeconomic Impact Analysis December 18, 2008 

 D-17 Final Draft Staff 

 For Revised Proposed A

Table 7 

Socioeconomic Impacts of Graphic Arts Rule, Printing Industry 

 Cost Increase 

Scenarios 

Impact to Net 

Profits 

Signif

Total 

Establishments 

Ink @ 

3.6% 

Change 

Ink @ 

6% 

Change 

Ink @ 

3.6% 

Change 

Ink @ 

6%

Change 

Ink @ 

3.6% 

Change 

32311 Printing 168 $273,569 $455,948 1.5% 2.6% no 

323110 Lithographic Printing 47 $220,404 $367,340 1.2% 1.0% no 323111 Gravure Printing 1323112 Flexographic Printing 10 $53,165 $88,608 2.2% 3.6% no 323113 Screen Printing 27323114 Quick Printing 50323115 Digital Printing 5323116 Manifold Business Forms 5323117 Books Printing 3323118 Blankbook, Looseleaf Binders 1323119 Other Commercial Printing 19

Source: ADE, Inc., based on California EDD, US Economic Census 2002, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, IMPLAN Input-Output Model IMPRO 2.0, and US Internal Revenue Service 

Table 8 

Socioeconomic Impacts of Graphic Arts Rule, Printing Industry: Small Business Disproportionate Impact 

---------------- Lithographic Printers ------------- ---------------- Flexographic Print

All Lithographic 

Printing 

Establishments Employ <50 Employ >50 

All Flexographic 

Printing 

Establishments Employ <50 

Establishment 47 43 3 10 Employment 1,752 547 592 390 9Revenues 262,848,883 63,353,321 199,495,562 $57,203,209 $13,485,66Ink Materials 6,122,328 1,911,480 2,068,732 $1,476,800 $355,94Net Profits 11,302,502 3,269,464 3,946,522 $2,459,738 $579,883.6% Cost Increase 132,750 68,813 74,474 $53,165 $12,816.0% Cost Increase 108,465 114,689 124,124 $88,608 $21,353.6% Cost Increase: Impact 1.2% 2.1% 1.9% 2.2% 2.2% 6.0% Cost Increase: Impact 1.0% 3.5% 3.1% 3.6% 3.7% Significant: 3.6% Cost Increase no no no no no  6.0% Cost Increase no no no no no 
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Appendix D: Socioeconomic Impact Analysis December 18, 2008 

 D-18 Final Draft Staff 

 For Revised Proposed A