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#           Quantitative evidence for the effects of multiple drivers on continental-scale amphibian declines      

      May 27, 2016    

Since amphibian declines were first proposed as a global phenomenon over a quarter century ago, the conservation community has made little progress in halting or reversing these trends. The early search for a “smoking gun” was replaced with the expectation that declines are caused by multiple drivers. While field observations and experiments have identified factors leading to increased local extinction risk, evidence for effects of these drivers is lacking at large spatial scales. Here, we use observations of 389 time-series of 83 species and complexes from 61 study areas across North America to test the effects of 4 of the major hypothesized drivers of declines. While we find that local amphibian populations are being lost from metapopulations at an average rate of 3.79% per year, these declines are not related to any particular threat at the continental scale; likewise the effect of each stressor is variable at regional scales. This result - that exposure to threats varies spatially, and populations vary in their response - provides little generality in the development of conservation strategies. Greater emphasis on local solutions to this globally shared phenomenon is needed.

## Citation Information

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#### Michael J Adams

##### Supervisory Research Ecologist

Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center

mjadams@usgs.gov

541-750-0980

#### Robert N Fisher

##### Supervisory Research Biologist

Western Ecological Research Center (WERC)

rfisher@usgs.gov

619-225-6422

#### Blake  Hossack, Ph.D.

##### Research Zoologist

Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center

blake_hossack@usgs.gov

406-243-4495

#### Hardin Waddle, Ph.D.

##### Research Ecologist

Wetland and Aquatic Research Center 

waddleh@usgs.gov

337-262-7671

#### Susan Walls, Ph.D.

##### Research Wildlife Biologist

Wetland and Aquatic Research Center 

swalls@usgs.gov

352-264-3507

#### Erin  Muths, PhD

##### Research Zoologist

Fort Collins Science Center

muthse@usgs.gov

970-226-9474

## Related Content

#### Michael J Adams

##### Supervisory Research Ecologist

Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center

mjadams@usgs.gov

541-750-0980

#### Robert N Fisher

##### Supervisory Research Biologist

Western Ecological Research Center (WERC)

rfisher@usgs.gov

619-225-6422

#### Blake  Hossack, Ph.D.

##### Research Zoologist

Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center

blake_hossack@usgs.gov

406-243-4495

#### Hardin Waddle, Ph.D.

##### Research Ecologist

Wetland and Aquatic Research Center 

waddleh@usgs.gov

337-262-7671

#### Susan Walls, Ph.D.

##### Research Wildlife Biologist

Wetland and Aquatic Research Center 

swalls@usgs.gov

352-264-3507

#### Erin  Muths, PhD

##### Research Zoologist

Fort Collins Science Center

muthse@usgs.gov

970-226-9474

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777 NW 9th StSuite 400Corvallis, OR97330United States

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541-750-1030

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#### John Wesley Powell Center for Earth System Analysis and Synthesis

Fort Collins Science Center (FORT)2150 Centre Ave Building CFort Collins, CO80526United States

powellcenter@usgs.gov

970-226-9103

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