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#           Probability of streamflow permanence model (PROSPER): A spatially continuous model of annual streamflow permanence throughout the Pacific Northwest      

      December 5, 2018    

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the PRObability of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model, a GIS raster-based empirical model that provides streamflow permanence probabilities (probabilistic predictions) of a stream channel having year-round flow for any unregulated and minimally-impaired stream channel in the Pacific Northwest region, U.S. The model provides annual predictions for 2004-2016 at a 30-m spatial resolution based on monthly or annually updated values of climatic conditions and static physiographic variables associated with the upstream basin. Predictions correspond to any pixel on the channel network consistent with the medium resolution National Hydrography Dataset channel network stream grid. Total annual precipitation and percent forest cover were consistently the most important predictor variables among global and most subregional models, which had error rates between 17 and 22%. Probabilities were converted to wet and dry streamflow permanence classes with an associated confidence. Wet and dry classifications were used to derive descriptors that characterize the statistical and spatial distribution of streamflow permanence in three focal basins. Predicted dry channel segments account for 52 to 92% of the stream network across the three focal basins; streamflow permanence decreased during climatically drier years. Predictions are publicly available through the USGS StreamStats platform. Results demonstrate the utility of the PROSPER model as a tool for identifying areas that may be resilient or sensitive to drought conditions, allowing for management efforts that target protecting critical reaches. Importantly, PROSPER’s successful predictive performance can be improved with new datasets of streamflow permanence underscoring the importance of field observations.

## Citation Information

## Related Content

                  -              Data           
                  -              Connect           

August 22, 2018

####                 Probability of Streamflow Permanence (PROSPER) Model Output Layers              

Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center

January 23, 2018

####                 Streamflow Observation Points in the Pacific Northwest, 1977-2016              

Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center

#### Kristin L Jaeger

##### Research Hydrologist

Washington Water Science Center

kjaeger@usgs.gov

253-552-1617

#### Roy Sando 

##### Physical Scientist (GIS) 

Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center

tsando@usgs.gov

406-594-9801

#### Ryan  R. McShane 

##### Hydrologist (Student Trainee)

Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center

rmcshane@usgs.gov

307-287-7434

#### Jason B Dunham

##### Supervisory Research Ecologist

Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center

jdunham@usgs.gov

541-750-0990

####             Konrad Hafen (Former Employee)          

##### Hydrologist

Idaho Water Science Center

#### Kyle Blasch, Ph.D.

##### Associate Regional Director

Northwest-Pacific Islands Region

kblasch@usgs.gov

208-901-1579

## Related Content

August 22, 2018

####                 Probability of Streamflow Permanence (PROSPER) Model Output Layers              

Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center

January 23, 2018

####                 Streamflow Observation Points in the Pacific Northwest, 1977-2016              

Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center

#### Kristin L Jaeger

##### Research Hydrologist

Washington Water Science Center

kjaeger@usgs.gov

253-552-1617

#### Roy Sando 

##### Physical Scientist (GIS) 

Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center

tsando@usgs.gov

406-594-9801

#### Ryan  R. McShane 

##### Hydrologist (Student Trainee)

Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center

rmcshane@usgs.gov

307-287-7434

#### Jason B Dunham

##### Supervisory Research Ecologist

Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center

jdunham@usgs.gov

541-750-0990

####             Konrad Hafen (Former Employee)          

##### Hydrologist

Idaho Water Science Center

#### Kyle Blasch, Ph.D.

##### Associate Regional Director

Northwest-Pacific Islands Region

kblasch@usgs.gov

208-901-1579

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(406) 457-5900

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